WorldWideScience

Sample records for rapid population growth

  1. Rapid population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1972-01-01

    At the current rate of population growth, world population by 2000 is expected to reach 7 billion or more, with developing countries accounting for some 5.4 billion, and economically advanced nations accounting for 1.6 billion. 'Population explosion' is the result of falling mortality rates and continuing high birth rates. Many European countries, and Japan, have already completed what is termed as demographic transition, that is, birth rates have fallen to below 20 births per 1000 population, death rates to 10/1000 population, and annual growth rates are 1% or less; annual growth rates for less developed countries ranged from 2 to 3.5%. Less developed countries can be divided into 3 groups: 1) countries with both high birth and death rates; 2) countries with high birth rates and low death rates; and 3) countries with intermediate and declining birth rates and low death rates. Rapid population growth has serious economic consequences. It encourages inequities in income distribution; it limits rate of growth of gross national product by holding down level of savings and capital investments; it exerts pressure on agricultural production and land; and it creates unemployment problems. In addition, the quality of education for increasing number of chidren is adversely affected, as high proportions of children reduce the amount that can be spent for the education of each child out of the educational budget; the cost and adequacy of health and welfare services are affected in a similar way. Other serious consequences of rapid population growth are maternal death and illness, and physical and mental retardation of children of very poor families. It is very urgent that over a billion births be prevented in the next 30 years to reduce annual population growth rate from the current 2% to 1% per year.

  2. Economic analyses of rapid population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birdsall, N

    1989-01-01

    "Discussion of the macroeconomic consequences of rapid population growth is organized into three schools: pessimists, optimists, and the recent revisionists. For the revisionists, differing views are presented about the pervasiveness and relevance of market failures, such as the negative externalities of childbearing, and about the ability of families and institutions to adjust rapidly to changes brought on by rapid population growth. A welfare economics approach is used to review the merits of various public policies to reduce fertility, including public financing of family planning services and taxes and incentives associated with childbearing." The focus is on developing countries. excerpt

  3. Rapid Population Growth-Cause or Result of Global Problems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Richard H.

    Explosive population growth is a symptom of the world's unjust and inequitable social, political, and economic conditions. The current rate of growth is staggering, particularly in the cities of the underdeveloped countries. While some progress has been made in slowing population growth, several factors still contribute to its momentum. One of…

  4. Communication and The Challenges of Rapid Population Growth in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2005) which projected the African Population at 1,349 million by 2025 and 1,969 million by 2050. These figures are so frightening that the use of communication to contribute to checking the high population growth is challenged. We discuss ...

  5. Rapid population growth and environmental degradation: ultimate versus proximate factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, R P

    1989-01-01

    This philosophical review of 2 arguments about responsibility for and solutions to environmental degradation concludes that both sides are correct: the ultimate and the proximal causes. Ultimate causes of pollution are defined as the technology responsible for a given type of pollution, such as burning fossil fuel; proximate causes are defined as situation-specific factors confounding the problem, such as population density or rate of growth. Commoner and others argue that developed countries with low or negative population growth rates are responsible for 80% of world pollution, primarily in polluting technologies such as automobiles, power generation, plastics, pesticides, toxic wastes, garbage, warfaring, and nuclear weapons wastes. Distortionary policies also contribute; examples are agricultural trade protection, land mismanagement, urban bias in expenditures, and institutional rigidity., Poor nations are responsible for very little pollution because poverty allows little waste or expenditures for polluting, synthetic technologies. The proximal causes of pollution include numbers and rate of growth of populations responsible for the pollution. Since change in the ultimate cause of pollution remains out of reach, altering the numbers of polluters can make a difference. Predictions are made for proportions of the world's total waste production, assuming current 1.6 tons/capita for developed countries and 0.17 tons/capita for developing countries. If developing countries grow at current rates and become more wealthy, they will be emitting half the world's waste by 2025. ON the other hand, unsustainable population growth goes along with inadequate investment in human capital: education, health, employment, infrastructure. The solution is to improve farming technologies in the 117 non-self-sufficient countries, fund development in the most unsustainable enclaves of growing countries, break institutionalized socio-political rigidity in these enclaves, and focus on

  6. Rapid population growth and fragile environments: the sub-Saharan African and south Asian experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, J C; Caldwell, P

    1994-02-18

    Case studies of the world's two poorest regions, sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, were used to illustrate the compromised standard of living of the poor and environmental damage due to continued rapid population growth. The conclusion was that the livelihoods of the poor should not be endangered for preserving the living standards of richer people. Nations must not ignore the challenges of reducing population growth as fast as can be achieved. The transitional period over the next 50 years is the main concern, because population growth rates will be slowing. Rural population growth is expected to decline from 60% of total population growth in South Asia to 7% between 2000 and 2025; similarly the decline in sub-Saharan Africa would be from 50% to 15%. Over the past 30 years, food production in South Asia has kept pace with population growth. Sub-Saharan Africa has adopted food importation to meet demand. African problems are a low resource base, faster population growth, and the fact that governments and individuals are too poor to maintain soil fertility. Long-term studies of how much soil depletion will occur are not available for these regions, and local area studies are not as pessimistic. Transition policies are needed to put "people first in terms of engineered or directed population and ecological change." The six main issues are the following: 1) the Brundtland Commission appropriately identified poverty as the main cause and effect of environmental degradation because of the threat to survival; 2) the verdict is still out about whether food production will keep pace with population growth through economic growth and investment in agriculture; 3) empirical research is needed to examine local social and regulatory institutions and the possibility of reinforcing these mechanisms rather than instituting central controls; 4) central coercion or modernizing economic policies can destroy local level controls; 5) famine is a complex ecological phenomenon and the

  7. Rapid Population Growth and Human Carrying Capacity: Two Perspectives. World Bank Staff Working Papers No. 690 and Population and Development Series No. 15.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahar, Dennis J., Ed.; And Others

    Two perspectives on carrying capacity and population growth are examined. The first perspective, "Carrying Capacity and Rapid Population Growth: Definition, Cases, and Consequences" (Robert Muscat), explores the possible meanings of the idea of carrying capacity under developing country conditions, looks at historical and present-day cases of…

  8. Rapid growth and genetic diversity retention in an isolated reintroduced black bear population in the central appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Sean M.; Cox, John J.; Clark, Joseph D.; Augustine, Benjamin J.; Hast, John T.; Gibbs, Dan; Strunk, Michael; Dobey, Steven

    2015-01-01

    Animal reintroductions are important tools of wildlife management to restore species to their historical range, and they can also create unique opportunities to study population dynamics and genetics from founder events. We used non-invasive hair sampling in a systematic, closed-population capture-mark-recapture (CMR) study design at the Big South Fork (BSF) area in Kentucky during 2010 and Tennessee during 2012 to estimate the demographic and genetic characteristics of the black bear (Ursus americanus) population that resulted from a reintroduced founding population of 18 bears in 1998. We estimated 38 (95% CI: 31–66) and 190 (95% CI: 170–219) bears on the Kentucky and Tennessee study areas, respectively. Based on the Tennessee abundance estimate alone, the mean annual growth rate was 18.3% (95% CI: 17.4–19.5%) from 1998 to 2012. We also compared the genetic characteristics of bears sampled during 2010–2012 to bears in the population during 2000–2002, 2–4 years following reintroduction, and to the source population. We found that the level of genetic diversity since reintroduction as indicated by expected heterozygosity (HE) remained relatively constant (HE(source, 2004) = 0.763, HE(BSF, 2000–2002) = 0.729, HE(BSF, 2010–2012) = 0.712) and the effective number of breeders (NB) remained low but had increased since reintroduction in the absence of sufficient immigration (NB(BSF, 2000–2002) = 12, NB(BSF, 2010–2012)  = 35). This bear population appears to be genetically isolated, but contrary to our expectations, we did not find evidence of genetic diversity loss or other deleterious genetic effects typically observed from small founder groups. We attribute that to high initial genetic diversity in the founder group combined with overlapping generations and rapid population growth. Although the population remains relatively small, the reintroduction using a small founder group appears to be demographically and genetically

  9. Simulating Population Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byington, Scott

    1997-01-01

    Presents a strategy to help students grasp the important implications of population growth. Involves an interactive demonstration that allows students to experience exponential and logistic population growth followed by a discussion of the implications of population-growth principles. (JRH)

  10. China urges rapid growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hendry, S.

    1993-01-01

    This time last year China's paramount leader, Deng Xiaoping, launched the country on another bout of fast-paced economic growth and restructuring. After three years of riding out political and economic clampdown, foreign chemical companies were jerked awake by major changes in China's chemical industry. As the state becomes less involved with managing the economy, unleashing 12% gross national product growth, closer involvement with domestic factories has become attractive and essential. MCI officials say government funds will now be channeled toward clearing energy and transport bottlenecks, and chemical enterprises will be given more chance to turn a profit. They will be allowed to issue shares, seek foreign investment partners themselves, and bypass trading companies like China National Import-Export Corp. (Sinochem), the former state monopoly. Foreign analysts question whether China's finances and oil resources can support expansion. Even if they can, Cai estimates that ethylene imports will remain around the present level of 1 million tons. To further guarantee chemical supplies, China has invested in urea and polypropylene plants in the US and polystyrene plant in Hong Kong

  11. Rapid growth within India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayes, D.

    2000-01-01

    The Indian government has published (in Hydrocarbon Vision 2025) its ideas for a long term strategy for its oil industry which is currently growing at an unprecedented rate. Increasing domestic production and investment in oil exploration and production overseas figure strongly in the plan. At present, India has a refining surplus but with an annual growth of 8-10%, this will disappear in the next 2-3 years. The report recommends that India should maintain 90% self-sufficiency in refining. The report sees development of the domestic oil industry as globally competitive and helping safeguard India's assets. The capability of India's refineries, current upgrading, the newer refineries and plans for new projects are all mentioned

  12. Population growth and economic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayana, D L

    1984-01-01

    This discussion of the issues relating to the problem posed by population explosion in the developing countries and economic growth in the contemporary world covers the following: predictions of economic and social trends; the Malthusian theory of population; the classical or stationary theory of population; the medical triage model; ecological disaster; the Global 2000 study; the limits to growth; critiques of the Limits to Growth model; nonrenewable resources; food and agriculture; population explosion and stabilization; space and ocean colonization; and the limits perspective. The Limits to Growth model, a general equilibrium anti-growth model, is the gloomiest economic model ever constructed. None of the doomsday models, the Malthusian theory, the classical stationary state, the neo-Malthusian medical triage model, the Global 2000 study, are so far reaching in their consequences. The course of events that followed the publication of the "Limits to Growth" in 1972 in the form of 2 oil shocks, food shock, pollution shock, and price shock seemed to bear out formally the gloomy predictions of the thesis with a remarkable speed. The 12 years of economic experience and the knowledge of resource trends postulate that even if the economic pressures visualized by the model are at work they are neither far reaching nor so drastic. Appropriate action can solve them. There are several limitations to the Limits to Growth model. The central theme of the model, which is overshoot and collapse, is unlikely to be the course of events. The model is too aggregative to be realistic. It exaggerates the ecological disaster arising out of the exponential growth of population and industry. The gross underestimation of renewable resources is a basic flaw of the model. The most critical weakness of the model is its gross underestimation of the historical trend of technological progress and the technological possiblities within industry and agriculture. The model does correctly emphasize

  13. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

  14. The impact of rapid population growth, expanding urbanisation, and other factors on development in sub-Saharan Africa: the contrasting responses of Tanzania and Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huth, M J

    1984-01-01

    This article analyzes the impact of the twin factors of rapid population growth and expanding urbanization on social and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa and compares policies that have been developed in Tanzania and Kenya in response to these factors. The principal consequences of overpopulation and overurbanization have been economic stagnation and physical and cultural malaise in urban population centers. Between 1960-80, per capita incomes in 19 countries of sub-Saharan Africa grew by less than 1%/year and 15 countries recorded a negative rate of growth in per capita income during the 1970s. Urban populations have increased at at overall rate of 6%/year as sub-Saharan Africans have migrated to cities in search of employment. Few national governments in the region have formulated longterm strategies to deal effectively with this double-faceted development constraint or have integrated new urban populations into the national economy. tanzania's development strategy is focused on the goals of socialism, rural development, and self-reliance. Urban development has remained a residual item in Tanzania's national development process, despite the fact that the urban population increased from 5.7% of the total population in 1967 to 12.7% in 1978 and is projected to comprise 24.7% by the year 2000. In contrast, Kenya, whose proportion of urban population increased from 9% to 15% between 1962 and 1979, has pursued an urban-focused development strategy. The strong urban-rural linkages of the economy have focused migration to the secondary towns. The national development plan includes urban spatial, employment, and investment policies. Although this plan constitutes a good basis for future planning, the magnitude of the urban problem is beyond the capabilities of the central government and requires the development of local capabilities.

  15. Population growth and consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalkley, K

    1997-04-01

    The relationship between population growth, resource consumption, and environmental degradation is complex. The rise in "greenhouse gases" that will cause climatic change is clearly due to human activity, and pollutants are often concentrated in densely populated areas. However, even an area with a negative population growth, such as Russia, can experience severe environmental degradation due to poor management. Consumption patterns have the most effect on ozone depletion, while population growth threatens biodiversity of and within species through the destruction of ecosystems. Migration joins population growth and social factors, such as land inequality, as major causes of deforestation, and global demand for water is expected to increase faster than the rate of population growth. Coastal development and over-fishing threaten to deplete the oceans, while soil quality is threatened by inappropriate land use. Estimates of the earth's carrying capacity range from less than 3 billion to more than 44 billion people, indicating how difficult it is to assess this figure. Development efforts throughout the world may lead to human gains that will ultimately be negated by environmental losses. These factors have led to growing support for environmentally sustainable development.

  16. Perspectives on population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-09-01

    Assume that everyone has the same information on population growth. There are many different opinions on what that information means and what should be done about it. Some people worry about current rates of growth, especially in the context of growing per capita consumption, and believe that all reasonable steps should be taken to reduce rates and stabilize population size. Others believe that growing populations can be accommodated by reducing consumption in rich countries, that technological progress will supply the new resources needed, that the development needed to support a larger population can be sustained, that large population size fosters prosperity, or that birth rates are falling and current growth is just temporary. These are all valid positions worthy of at least debate. Interest groups commonly acknowledgement population growth as a significant issue, but offer no response to it. Sometimes the issue goes unrecognized because it conflicts with a more highly valued personal agenda item. Finally, some responses come from confusion and anger rather than reasoning or self-interest. The proponents of these latter arguments bring nothing constructive to the debate.

  17. Africa: rapid population increase retards development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-10-01

    The Organization of African Unity (OAU), the African Development Bank (ADB) and the UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) have criticized African governments for not taking the problem of unchecked population growth seriously enough. "Until recently most African governments did not view rapid population growth as a matter for concern," said the OAU assistant secretary-general for political affairs, Machivenyika Mapuranga, at a seminar on 'population and development'. The OAU estimates that an annual average population increase of 3.1% far outstrips Africa's economic growth, which in 1992 was less than 1%. Mapuranga acknowledged that cutting the population increase is an uphill struggle, especially among rural communities. African agriculture is largely labor intensive, sustained by smallholders, which encourages farmers to have more children. Like other wage earners, African farmers look to support from their family when they grow old and, for that reason, the number of children also counts. But with agricultural production growing at an average annual rate of 2.5%, self-sufficiency in food remains an elusive goal. Cities in sub-Saharan Africa are growing much faster than the overall rate of population increase of 3.1% per year. Between 1980 and 1988 the region's urban population increased at the rate of 6.9% a year. Urban areas now account for nearly 30% of the sub-Saharan Africa population, currently put at 680 million. By 2025, approximately 700 million people are expected to live in urban areas. Despite migration to towns, the rural population is expected to rise more than 68%, reaching over 590 million. full text

  18. Canada's population: growth and dualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaujot, R P

    1978-04-01

    In Canada the current 1.3% population growth rate is causing some concern. Those concerned argue that such a rate of growth in combination with high levels of consumption could jeopardize the country's resource base and its comfortable style of living. Many Canadians are questioning high levels of immigration, for now that the fertility level is below replacement level, net immigration contributes substantially to population growth (over 1/3 in 1976). The growing proportion of non-Europeans among recent immigrants is causing resentment, and, in a tight job market, immigrants are regarded as threats to the World War 2 baby boom cohort who are now at working ages. The baby boom generation also puts stress on housing and health services, and it will increase the need for pension checks as it ages. Although French fertility is no longer high and immigration is no longer dominated by the British, the French group's 200-year struggle to preserve its identity continues on in the current effort of the Quebec government to enforce the use of French language by law within that province. Geography and climate dictate another demographic fact that divides the country and pervades its history. In addition to intense regionalism, uneven population distribution is responsible for 2 other concerns: the rapid growth of several already large cities and depopulation of many small communities. Focus in this discussion is on Canada's population growth in the past and as projected for the future, historical and current fertility, mortality and immigration trends, the search for a new immigration policy, the impact of the baby boom generation on the population's age structure and the problems this creates, and recent shifts in population distribution and in the country's ethnic and linguistic makeup. The population policy proposals evolved thus far involve to a great extent the use of immigration as a lever for achieving given population objectives.

  19. Environmental impact of population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, Rosamond; Matson, Pamela

    Earth's population currently numbers 5.4 billion; even given optimistic assumptions for reduction in growth rates, the number will double by the middle of the next century with most of the increase in the developing countries. Rapid population growth in the developing world raises the fundamental dilemma of how to alleviate chronic hunger and poverty in the short run while preserving the atmosphere and ecosystem services required for long-term human and biospheric sustenance. This dilemma, and the compromises required to solve it, were discussed by twenty-five researchers from five countries at the Aspen Global Change Institute 1992 Summer Science Session III, Food, Conservation, and Global Environmental Change: Is Compromise Possible?, held from August 16 to 28, in Aspen, Colo.

  20. Population Growth and Poverty in the Developing World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birdsall, Nancy

    1980-01-01

    The link between rapid population growth and the absolute poverty which currently afflicts 780 million people in developing countries (excluding China and other centrally planned economies) is examined. As a result of rapid population growth, many countries suffer slow per capita income growth, a lack of progress in reducing income inequality, and…

  1. [Economic growth with zero population growth and with declining population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurz, R

    1982-05-01

    The effects of both zero population growth and a declining population on economic growth are considered. Although the neoclassical theory of economic growth leads to optimistic results in such cases, the author suggests that this theory cannot be used as a basis for political action. The need for further research into the economic effects of a stationary or declining population is stressed. (summary in ENG)

  2. Population growth changes targets for immunization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuljapurkar, S; John, A M

    1995-01-01

    The faster the rate of population growth in developing countries, the less likely it is that current protocols for immunization against measles, rubella, and mumps will eradicate these childhood diseases. Standard protocols (timing, percentage of children to be immunized) do not take into account the rapid rates of population growth in developing countries (3.0% per year on average in sub-Saharan Africa and 2.0% in the rest of Africa, in Latin America, and in Asia, excluding China). Most public health planning models in this area were created based on static infant populations. The World Health Organization advises vaccinating at least 85% of children aged 6 to 9 months, a 3-month immunization window during which maternal antibodies are low (so the vaccination takes) and herd immunity is high (the probability that a child will encounter the disease is low because most children have been immunized). In practice, the immunization window in developing countries is 1 year or more. More susceptible children are present than assumed by the models. A larger number of susceptible babies are added each year during rapid population growth. As the age range for immunization widens, a higher percentage of children must be vaccinated to eradicate disease (chart). The proportion of each birth cohort that must be immunized rises as the population growth rate increases. At zero population growth, 94% must be vaccinated; at population growth rates greater than 3%, 98% must be vaccinated.

  3. Population growth, poverty and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibirige, J S

    1997-07-01

    One of the most popular explanations for the many problems that face Africa is population growth. Africa's population has doubled since 1960. Africa has the highest fertility rate in the world and the rate of population growth is higher than in any other region. At the same time, Africa faces a social and economic situation that is viewed by many as alarming. Among the problems that devastate Africa is that of persistent poor health. Africa has lower life expectancy, higher mortality rates and is affected by more disease and illness conditions than any other region. Focusing on sub-Saharan Africa, this paper examines the relationship between population growth, poverty and poor health. While most analyses have focused on population growth as an original cause of poverty and underdevelopment, this paper argues that while both population growth and poor health play a significant role in exacerbating the problem of poverty, they are themselves primary consequences of poverty rather than its cause.

  4. Population growth and infant mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Fabella, Christina

    2008-01-01

    The relationship between population growth and economic outcomes is an issue of great policy significance. In the era of the Millennium Development Goals, poverty and its correlates have become the compelling issues. Economic growth may not automatically translate into reductions in poverty and its correlates (may not trickle down) if income distribution is at the same time worsening. We therefore investigate the direct effect of population growth on infant mortality for various income catego...

  5. City Population Growth and Economic Growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Freire-Gibb, L. Carlos

    2008-01-01

    This article looks at the relationship between city population growth (intimately related to population proximity), and economic development. The hypothesis is that wherever dynamic and inclusive networks exist, there are more opportunities for economic development in this place. When these types...... of networks choose a tool (project, policy) to implement in the city, success will be more likely. Furthermore, virtuous circles will arise. The author gives an overview of two historical cases in urban growth, in Europe (1200-1800) and the U.S.A. (1800 to today)....

  6. Population growth and development: the Kenyan experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyamwange, M

    1995-01-01

    Rapid population growth in Kenya and high fertility impacts negatively on economic development. The growth and high fertility results in declines in gross national product, per capita food consumption, and land quality; a high dependency ratio; urban crowding; and inadequate health systems. East Africa has the highest crude birth rates in Africa, and Kenya has the highest birth rate of 54/1000 population in East Africa. The African crude death rate is 50% higher than the world average, but Kenya's death rate is the lowest in East Africa and comparable to North American and European death rates. Kenya has the highest rate of natural increase of about 4%. Population growth rates rose over the decades. Kenya's average population density is well above the sub-Saharan African average and much lower than very high density countries. Population is unequally distributed. Regional densities are widely divergent, and the highest densities in Western province are well above densities in Rwanda and Burundi. Urban growth has increased, as has migration to urban areas. Nairobi has 57% of urban population. Improved health and nutrition have contributed to increased life expectancy. The desired family size is large. The impact of demographic factors on economic conditions is evident in the decline in gross national product per capita growth to under 1% during 1972-88. A slight upswing occurred during 1988-93, but other crises are emerging. Food production has not kept pace with population growth. Production has been low due to serious land degradation, short fallow periods, and traditional farming practices. Population pressure has forced families to shift agriculture onto marginal lands, and desertification has increased. A growing proportion of the population is unemployed or underemployed. Population programs should address the underlying conditions for fertility decline.

  7. On the theory of global population growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kapitza, Sergei P

    2010-01-01

    Ours is an epoch of global demographic revolution, a time of a rapid transition from explosive population growth to a low reproduction level. This, possibly the most momentous change ever witnessed by humankind has, first and foremost, important implications for the dynamics of population. But it also affects billions of people in all aspects of their lives, and it is for this reason that demographic processes have grown into a vast problem, both globally and in Russia. Their fundamental understanding will to a large extent impact the present, the short-term future following the current critical epoch, the stable and uniform global development and its priorities, and indeed global security. Quantitative treatment of historical processes is reached using the phenomenological theory of mankind's population growth. This theory relies on the concepts and methods of physics and its conclusions should take into account the ideas of economics and genetics. (interdisciplinary physics)

  8. The outlook for population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ronald

    2011-07-29

    Projections of population size, growth rates, and age distribution, although extending to distant horizons, shape policies today for the economy, environment, and government programs such as public pensions and health care. The projections can lead to costly policy adjustments, which in turn can cause political and economic turmoil. The United Nations projects global population to grow from about 7 billion today to 9.3 billion in 2050 and 10.1 billion in 2100, while the Old Age Dependency Ratio doubles by 2050 and triples by 2100. How are such population projections made, and how certain can we be about the trends they foresee?

  9. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  10. Population growth and its implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badii, M. H.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Human populations have grown at an unprecedented rate over the past three centuries. By 2001, the world population stood at 6.2 billion people. If the current trend of 1.4 % per year persists, the population will double in 51years. Most of that growth will occur in the less developed countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. There is a serious concern that the number of humans in the world and our impact on the environment will overload the life support systems of the earth. The crude birth rate is the number of births in a year divided by the average population. A more accurate measure of growth is the general fertility rate, which takes into account the age structure and fecundity of the population. The crude birth rate minus the crude death rate gives the rate of natural increase. When this rate reaches a level at which people are just replacing themselves, zero population growth is achieved. In the more highly developed countries of the world, growth has slowed are even reversed in recent years so that without immigration from other areas, population would be declining. The change from high birth and death rates that accompanies in industrialization is called a demographic transition. Many developing nations have already begun this transition. Death rates have fallen, but birth rates remain high. Some demographers believe that as infant mortality drops and economic development progresses so that people in these countries can be sure of secure future, they will complete the transition to a stable population or a high standard living. While larger populations bring many problems, they also may be a valuable resource of energy, intelligence, and enterprise that will make it possible to overcome resource limitation problems. A social just view argues that a more equitable distribution of wealth might reduce both excess population growth and environmental degradation. We have many more options now for controlling fertility than were available

  11. Political economy of population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, S; Mehta, H S

    1987-01-01

    Tracing the origin of political economy as a class-science, this paper focuses on the political economy of population growth. Exposing the limitations of Malthusian ideas and their invalidity even for the capitalist economies, it discusses the subsequent revival of the Malthusian model during the period of de-colonization and the misinterpretation of the relationship between population growth and development in the developing and developed countries. Taking India, China, and Japan as some case studies, the paper examines the relationship between birth rate levels and some correlates. It elaborates on the Indian experience, emphasizing the association of population growth with poverty and unemployment and lays bare some of the hidden causes of these phenomena. The authors examine some interstate variations in India and identify constraints and prospects of the existing population policy. The paper proposes outlines of a democratic population policy as an integral part of India's development strategy which should recognize human beings not simply as consumers but also as producers of material values. It pleads for 1) restructuring of property relations; 2) bringing down the mortality rates and raising of the literacy levels, especially among females; and 3) improving nutritional levels, as prerequisites for bringing down birth rates.

  12. Persistent Environmental Toxicants in Breast Milk and Rapid Infant Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Criswell, Rachel; Lenters, Virissa; Mandal, Siddhartha; Stigum, Hein; Iszatt, Nina; Eggesbø, Merete

    2017-01-01

    Many environmental toxicants are passed to infants in utero and through breast milk. Exposure to toxicants during the perinatal period can alter growth patterns, impairing growth or increasing obesity risk. Previous studies have focused on only a few toxicants at a time, which may confound results. We investigated levels of 26 toxicants in breast milk and their associations with rapid infant growth, a risk factor for later obesity. We used data from the Norwegian HUMIS study, a multi-center cohort of 2,606 mothers and newborns enrolled between 2002 and 2008. Milk samples collected 1 month after delivery from a subset of 789 women oversampled by overweight were analyzed for toxicants including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), heavy metals, and pesticides. Growth was defined as change in weight-for-age z-score between 0 and 6 months among the HUMIS population, and rapid growth was defined as change in z-score above 0.67. We used a Bayesian variable selection method to determine the exposures that most explained variation in the outcome. Identified toxicants were included in logistic and linear regression models to estimate associations with growth, adjusting for maternal age, smoking, education, pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI), gestational weight gain, parity, child sex, cumulative breastfeeding, birth weight, gestational age, and preterm status. Of 789 infants, 19.2% displayed rapid growth. The median maternal age was 29.6 years, and the median pre-pregnancy BMI was 24.0 kg/m2, with 45.3% of mothers overweight or obese. Rapid growers were more likely to be firstborn. Hexachlorobenzene, β-hexachlorocyclohexane (β-HCH), and PCB-74 were identified in the variable selection method. An interquartile range (IQR) increase in β-HCH exposure was associated with a lower odds of rapid growth (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.42-0.94). Newborns exposed to high levels of β-HCH showed reduced infant growth (β = -0.03, 95% CI -0.05 to -0.01 for IQR increase in breast milk concentration

  13. Population growth and economic development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbridge, S

    1989-01-01

    The Malthusian and neo-Malthusian approaches to the role of population growth in economic development and resource depletion are briefly outlined. Three arguments are then presented that emphasize demographic determinism, empirical evidence, and cause and effect. The author concludes that non-coercive family planning programs may have a role to play in countries that are unable to reduce inequalities, particularly for the poor and for women.

  14. Multiple gingival pregnancy tumors with rapid growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Lian Sun

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Pregnancy gingivitis is an acute form of gingivitis that affects pregnant women, with a prevalence of 30%, possibly ranging up to 100%. Sometimes, pregnancy gingivitis shows a tendency toward a localized hyperplasia called gingival pyogenic granuloma. Pregnancy tumor is a benign gingival hyperplasia with the gingiva as the most commonly involved site, but rarely it involves almost the entire gingiva. A 22-year-old woman was referred to our clinic with a chief complaint of gingival swelling that had lasted for 2 days. The lesions progressed rapidly and extensively, and almost all the gingiva was involved a week later. Generalized erythema, edema, hyperplasia, a hemorrhagic tendency, and several typical hemangiomatous masses were noted. Pregnancy was denied by the patient at the first and second visits, but was confirmed 2 weeks after the primary visit. The patient was given oral hygiene instructions. She recovered well, and the mass gradually regressed and had disappeared completely at the end of 12 weeks of pregnancy, without recurrence. The gingival lesions were finally diagnosed as multiple gingival pregnancy tumors. The patient delivered a healthy infant. An extensive and rapid growth of gingival pregnancy tumors during the early first month of pregnancy is a rare occurrence that is not familiar to dentists, gynecologists, and obstetricians. Those practitioners engaged in oral medicine and periodontology, primary care obstetrics, and gynecology should be aware of such gingival lesions to avoid misdiagnosis and overtreatment.

  15. Population Growth and National Population Policy of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thukral, A. K.; Singh, B. P.

    2008-01-01

    The population growth in India may overtake China by the year 2030. The National Population Policy of India targets population stabilization in India by the year 2045. The present paper carries out objective analysis of the population growth in India in terms of change in specific growth. At the present rate of specific growth rate decline, the population by the end of the century will be 2.49 billion. For the population to achieve zero growth by the year 2045, a decline in specific growth rate will have to be achieved at the rate of 0.000428 per year.

  16. [African population growth: status and prospects].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabutin, D

    1991-01-01

    Despite great improvements over the past several years, the quality of demographic data in Africa is still a problem, and Africa remains the least well known continent. Population growth is extremely rapid, with all countries growing at annual rates of over 3%. The natural increase rate even shows some signs of increasing slightly in the next decade or so. Africa's population was estimated at 220 million in 1950, 650 million at present, and is projected at 1.5 billion by 2025. Africans represented 9% of the world population in 1960, but will increase to 19% around 2025. The rapid population growth is the result of declining mortality since the 1950s unmatched by changes in fertility. There are significant socioeconomic and rural-urban mortality differentials in Africa, but as yet only highly educated urbanites have measurably reduced their family size. 2 consequences of this rapid growth are the youth of the population, with almost 50% under 20 years, and its high density in some areas. By 2025, 18 countries will have densities of over 100 persons per sq km. Almost everywhere in Africa, family sizes are at least 6 children/woman. 3 factors explaining this high level of fertility are the earliness and universality of marriage, rates of contraceptive usage of only 4-10% in most countries, and declining durations of breast feeding and sexual abstinence, which traditionally served as brakes on fertility. As a rule, women marry young and remain married until the end of their reproductive years. Divorce and widowhood are common, but remarriage is usually rapid if the woman is still of reproductive age. Life expectancy at birth in sub-Saharan Africa has increased from some 36 years around 1950 to 50 years at present. Progress in control of mortality, and especially infant mortality, has been slower than expected, and Africa still has by far the lowest life expectancy of any major region. Regional, rural-urban, and socioeconomic mortality differentials are considerable and

  17. Impact of Population Aging on Asia's Future Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Donghyun; Shin, Kwanho

    2011-01-01

    First, the expert contributors argue, Asia must find ways to sustain rapid economic growth in the face of less favorable demographics, which implies slower growth of the workforce. Second, they contend, Asia must find ways to deliver affordable, adequate, and sustainable old-age economic security for its growing elderly population. Underpinned by rigorous analysis, a wide range of concrete policy options for sustaining economic growth while delivering economic security for the elderly are the...

  18. Rapid City Native American Population Needs Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrokhi, Abdollah

    1993-01-01

    Interviews with 301 Native American households in Rapid City, South Dakota, examined demographic variables and attitudes and needs in the areas of education, housing, transportation, health care, recreation, and employment. The ultimate goals for Native American people are achieving empowerment and group determination through greater cultural…

  19. Hispanic Population Growth and Rural Income Inequality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrado, Emilio A.; Kandel, William A.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the relationship between Hispanic population growth and changes in U.S. rural income inequality from 1990 through 2000. Applying comparative approaches used for urban areas we disentangle Hispanic population growth's contribution to inequality by comparing and statistically modeling changes in the family income Gini coefficient across…

  20. The relationship between population growth and poverty in Africa: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The mainstream view from these debates and discussions is that rapid population growth in Africa has put pressure on the environment, leading to environmental degradation which translates into shortfall in food production and atrophied development. This view is as a result of ritualistic adherence to narrow ideological ...

  1. Environmental degradation, energy consumption, population growth ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Based on the result, there is no evidence of unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions and energy consumption to economic growth and strong unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth to population growth was found. The long run and short run estimates ...

  2. Growth rate, population entropy, and perturbation theory.

    OpenAIRE

    Demetrius, L.

    1989-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the connection between two classes of population variables: measures of population growth rate—the Malthusian parameter, the net reproduction rate, the gross reproduction rate, and the mean life expectancy; and measures of demographic heterogeneity—population entropy. It is shown that the entropy functions predict the response of the growth rate parameters to perturbations in the age-specific fecundity and mortality schedule. These results are invoked to introduce...

  3. On population growth near protected areas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas N Joppa

    Full Text Available Protected areas are the first, and often only, line of defense in efforts to conserve biodiversity. They might be detrimental or beneficial to rural communities depending on how they alter economic opportunities and access to natural resources. As such, protected areas may attract or repel human settlement. Disproportionate increases in population growth near protected area boundaries may threaten their ability to conserve biodiversity.Using decadal population datasets, we analyze population growth across 45 countries and 304 protected areas. We find no evidence for population growth near protected areas to be greater than growth of rural areas in the same country. Furthermore, we argue that what growth does occur near protected areas likely results from a general expansion of nearby population centers.Our results contradict those from a recent study by Wittemyer et al., who claim overwhelming evidence for increased human population growth near protected areas. To understand the disagreement, we re-analyzed the protected areas in Wittemyer et al.'s paper. Their results are simply artifacts of mixing two incompatible datasets. Protected areas may experience unusual population pressures near their edges; indeed, individual case studies provide examples. There is no evidence, however, of a general pattern of disproportionate population growth near protected areas.

  4. The role of population on economic growth and development: evidence from developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Atanda, Akinwande A.; Aminu, Salaudeen B.; Alimi, Olorunfemi Y.

    2012-01-01

    The precise relationship between population growth and per capita income has been inconclusive in the literature and the nexus has been found not clearly explain the determinants of rapid population growth in developing countries that lacks fertility control and management framework. This forms the rationale for this study to access the trend of factors that influence rapid population growth in developing countries between 1980 and 2010. This paper examined the comparative trend review of pop...

  5. Organisational Factors of Rapid Growth of Slovenian Dynamic Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pšeničny Viljem

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The authors provide key findings on the internal and external environmental factors of growth that affect the rapid growth of dynamic enterprises in relation to individual key organisational factors or functions. The key organisational relationships in a growing enterprise are upgraded with previous research findings and identified key factors of rapid growth through qualitative and quantitative analysis based on the analysis of 4,511 dynamic Slovenian enterprises exhibiting growth potential. More than 250 descriptive attributes of a sample of firms from 2011 were also used for further qualitative analysis and verification of key growth factors. On the basis of the sample (the study was conducted with 131 Slovenian dynamic enterprises, the authors verify whether these factors are the same as the factors that were studied in previous researches. They also provide empirical findings on rapid growth factors in relation to individual organisational functions: administration - management - implementation (entrepreneur - manager - employees. Through factor analysis they look for the correlation strength between individual variables (attributes that best describe each factor of rapid growth and that relate to the aforementioned organisational functions in dynamic enterprises. The research findings on rapid growth factors offer companies the opportunity to consider these factors during the planning and implementation phases of their business, to choose appropriate instruments for the transition from a small fast growing firm to a professionally managed growing company, to stimulate growth and to choose an appropriate growth strategy and organisational factors in order to remain, or become, dynamic enterprises that can further contribute to the preservation, growth and development of the Slovenian economy

  6. World pipeline work set for rapid growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports on international pipeline construction which has entered a fast-growth period, accelerated by the new political and economic realities around the world and increasing demand for natural gas, crude oil and refined petroleum products. Many projects are under way or in planning for completion in the mid- to late 1990s in Europe, South America, Asia and the Middle East. Pipeline And Gas Journal's projection calls for construction or other work on 30,700 miles of new natural gas, crude oil and refined products pipelines in the 1992-93 period outside Canada and the U.S. These projects will cost an estimated $30 billion-plus. Natural gas pipelines will comprise most of the mileage, accounting for almost 23,000 miles at an estimated cost of $26.3 billion. Products pipelines, planned or under construction, will add another 5,800 miles at a cost of $2.8 billion. Crude oil pipelines, at a minimum, will total 1,900 new miles at a cost of slightly under $1 billion

  7. Kinetic Model of Growth of Arthropoda Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ershov, Yu. A.; Kuznetsov, M. A.

    2018-05-01

    Kinetic equations were derived for calculating the growth of crustacean populations ( Crustacea) based on the biological growth model suggested earlier using shrimp ( Caridea) populations as an example. The development cycle of successive stages for populations can be represented in the form of quasi-chemical equations. The kinetic equations that describe the development cycle of crustaceans allow quantitative prediction of the development of populations depending on conditions. In contrast to extrapolation-simulation models, in the developed kinetic model of biological growth the kinetic parameters are the experimental characteristics of population growth. Verification and parametric identification of the developed model on the basis of the experimental data showed agreement with experiment within the error of the measurement technique.

  8. Rapid population increase in an introduced muskox population, West Greenland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carsten Riis Olesen

    1993-10-01

    Full Text Available In 1962 and 1965, 27 (13 and 14 muskox yearlings were translocated from East Greenland (71°N to the Angujaartorfiup Nunaa range in West Greenland (67°N. Angujaartorfiup Nunaa is a 6600 km2 icefree, continental area where caribou are indigenous. The climate is strictly continental with a minimum of precipitation but with abundant vegetation. Aerial surveys in 1990 documented that the muskox population has increased to 2600 heads despite quota-based harvesting since 1988. The annual quota was 200, 300 and 400 for 1988, 1989 and 1990, respectively. Distribution of muskoxen shows a significant preference for low altitude habitats southeast of Kangerlussuaq Airport and around Arnangarnup Qoorua (Paradise valley. Annual population increment averages 30% and the calf crop is around 24% of the population. Yearling recruitment in the population reveals that calf mortality during winter is very limited. About half of the 1-year-old females are served and they eventually give birth to their first calf when they turn 2 years old. With half of the 2-year-old females reproducing, the calf/cow ration ranges between 0.9 and 1.0.

  9. Metropolitan migration and population growth in selected developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to estimate the components of metropolitan population growth in selected developing countries during 1960-1970 period. The study examines population growth in 26 cities: 5 are in Africa, 8 in Asia, and 13 in Latin America, using data from national census publications. These cities in general are the political capitals of their countries, but some additional large cities were selected in Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa. All cities, at the beginning of the 1960-1970 decade had over 500,000 population; Accra, the only exception, reached this population level during the 1960s. Some cities had over 4 million residents in 1970. Net migration contributed about 37% to total metropolitan population growth; the remainder of the growth is attributable to natural increase. Migration has a much stronger impact on metropolitan growth than suggested by the above figure: 1) Several metropolitan areas, for various reasons, are unlikely to receive many migrants; without those cities, the share of metropolitan growth from net migration is 44%. 2) Estimates of the natural increase of migrants after their arrival in the metropolitan areas, when added to migration itself, changes the total contribution of migration to 49% in some metropolitan areas. 3) Even where net migration contributes a smaller proportion to metropolitan growth than natural increase, the rates of net migration are generally high and should be viewed in the context of rapid metropolitan population growth from natural increase alone. Finally, the paper also compares the components of metropolitan growth with the components of growth in the remaining urban areas. The results show that the metropolitan areas, in general, grow faster than the remaining urban areas, and that this more rapid growth is mostly due to a higher rate of net migration. Given the significance of migration for metropolitan growth, further investigations of the effects of these migration streams, particularly with

  10. The end of world population growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, W; Sanderson, W; Scherbov, S

    2001-01-01

    There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this growth is likely to come to an end in the foreseeable future. Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting(1), here we show that there

  11. Nigerian population growth and its implications for economic development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okpala, A O

    1990-12-01

    The population of Nigeria is growing at a rate of 3.75%/year indicating a doubling of the population every 22 years. Demographers estimated the population to be 91,178,000 in 1985. Even though population density is high (288 people/square mile), it is not equally distributed. It is highest in the south and southwest urban areas such as Lagos (1045 people/square mile) and lowest in the northeast (75 people/square mile). Moreover rural-urban migration is growing. A major reason for rural-urban migration is the dual nature of the economy in Nigeria. In urban areas, economic development brings about higher standards of living, but, in rural areas, a subsistence economy predominates. This coupled with rapid population growth results in small or no growth in per capita income. Only if the government were to integrate redistribution policies into complete economic development plans should it consider redistributing the population. It should stress rural development (e.g., incentives for firms to set up in rural areas). Further it should move some government offices to rural areas. The government also needs to adopt population policies encouraging the lowering of fertility levels. If it were to provide education through the secondary and prevocational education level free of charge, educated women will lower their fertility. Sex education should be included in the curriculum. Further the government must play an active role in family planning programs, especially educating rural women about family planning. It should also use the mass media to promote small family size, but it should not dictate family size. It also needs to recognize that population growth puts much pressure on the environment. For example, population growth causes soil erosion, nutrient exhaustion, rapid deforestation, and other problems which render the land unusable for agriculture.

  12. Population Growth Types in India, 1961-71

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakravarti, A. K.

    1976-01-01

    An effective means of cartographic representation of India's population growth and its spatial characteristics is the focus of this paper. A population growth index and population growth types are discussed. (Author/ND)

  13. Population growth is a variable open to change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potts, M.

    2016-12-01

    The absolute number of people and the rate of population growth have an impact on climate mitigation, adaptation and possible conflict. Half the pregnancies in the US are unintended. Robust quantitative evidence from California demonstrates that improving access to family planning is the single most cost-effective way of mitigating our carbon footprint. Globally, there are 80 million unintended pregnancies annually. Many non-evidence barriers deprive women of the information and means required to separate sex from childbearing. Between 1960 and 1990, meeting the need for family planning led to a rapid fall in family size in much of Asia. Since 1990, funding for family planning has collapsed and fertility decline has stalled. The UN projects that by 2100 global population will increase by 3.8 billion (equal to world population in 1975). 80% of this growth will be in Africa. Studies project that climate change will undermine crop yields in parts of Africa, especially the Sahel. A high ratio of young males to the rest of the population is a risk factor in conflict. Today, only 1% of overseas assistance is allocated to family planning. Based on analysis of the past, doubling that investment would accelerate fertility decline, facilitating climate mitigation and adaptation, and possibly reducing conflict. Population and family planning were pushed off the international agenda by unacceptably and tragic episodes of coercion in China and India. However, there is compelling data that when voluntary family planning is widely available then family size can fall rapidly, as occurred in the Islamic Republic of Iran, where fertility fell more rapidly than in any other country in history. Family planning is listening to what women want not telling people want to do. Population growth is a variable open to change in a human rights framework. Population and family planning are variables relevant to the scientific agenda of the AGU.

  14. Economic Growth of a Rapidly Developing Economy: Theoretical Formulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg Sergeyevich Sukharev

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The subject matter of the article is the description of economic growth. Modern economy is characterized by a high rate of changes. These changes are the limiting parameters of modern development, which requires a modification of the basic models of growth, the substantiation of the expediency and necessity of a rapid development strategy. In a simple mathematical form, the statement of the problem of economic growth in the “green economy” is examined, in which the costs of environmental measures are not considered a priori as hampering economic development (as it is common for a number of modern neoclassical and neo-Keynesian growth models. The methodological basis of the article are the econometric approach and modelling method. The article has a theoretical character. The main hypothesis supposes that the rapid development strategy cannot make an adequate development strategy under certain conditions, but may be acceptable in other its specific conditions. In this sense, the important growth conditions are the availability of resources, the effectiveness of institutions and the current economic structure, the technological effectiveness of economy, as well as the conditions of technological development (“green economy” and the path of such development. In the article, on the theoretical level of analysis, the substantiation of the adequacy of the rapid development strategy for an economic system is given, whose goal is to achieve the standard of living of the countryleader. Based on the assumptions introduced, the period for which the rapid development strategy might be implemented and the economic lag of the country might be reduced from the country-leader is determined. The conditions that ensure the impact of innovations on the rate of economic development are summarized. The introduced range of dependencies and relations can be useful for the elaboration of the theory of innovation development and for the formation of a new

  15. Environmental vs Demographic Stochasticity in Population Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Braumann, C. A.

    2010-01-01

    Compares the effect on population growth of envinonmental stochasticity (random environmental variations described by stochastic differential equations) with demographic stochasticity (random variations in births and deaths described by branching processes and birth-and-death processes), in the density-independent and the density-dependent cases.

  16. Exile and demographic population growth in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stevanović Radoslav

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The data of the 2002 population census on refugee population are analyzed in this paper with a basic aim to determine the significance (contribution of refugee corpus in demographic development of the Republic of Serbia. By analyzing the data, it has been determined that the refugee corpus does not significantly differ from the domicile population in the basic, above all demographic and other qualitative characteristics. The differences which can be noticed with certain (primarily socio-economic characteristics, due to the proportionally small participation of refugee persons in relation to the total (domicile population, could not significantly influence the total demographic, socio-economic and other characteristics of the population of central Serbia and Vojvodina. The most significant contribution of refugee (classifying the refugee corpus in the country's total population is reflected in the mitigation of the depopulation trend, namely population growth, not only both micro-entities, but also lower administrative-territorial entities (districts depending on the enumerated refugee population in them. However, population projections indicate that by the middle of this century (2050 the positive effects of the basically larger number of inhabitants will be lost caused by the inflow of refugee population.

  17. Population growth in Shanghai and its characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, K

    1985-07-01

    There has been an astonishing change in Shanghai's natural population growth over the past 34 years, with a significant difference between urban and suburban areas. In 1954, the birth rate reached as high as 52.6/1000 and the death rate dropped as low as 7.1/1000, the natural growth rate being 45.4/1000. The substantial decline in the rate of natural increase in Shanghai is due to the enormous achievements of family planning programs. In 1983, the 1-child rate of Shanghai areas was 96.56%, with that in urban areas reaching 99.36% and that in rural areas 92.4%. In the last decade, with the development of industrial production, several satellite cities have been built, attracting some of the urban residents from the city proper. The 5 characteristics relating to Shanghai's population growth are: 1) population density is high and population distribution is uneven; 2) fertility declined drastically in the 1970s; 3) the proportion of young is declining and the proportion of aged is increasing; 4) the mortality has been declining steadily, resulting in a longer life expectancy; and 5) the sex ratio has evened out since the liberation when males greatly outnumbered females. These factors point out the arduous task for family planning in the coming years. The enormous population and the increasing number of young people at child bearing ages point out the necessity of carrying on the family planning program.

  18. Population growth and food supply in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meerman, J; Cochrane, S H

    1982-09-01

    It is argued in this article that sub-Saharan Africa, given its present institutions and endowments of capital and technology, is already dangerously close to overpopulation. The rapid growth of its population projected for the next decades will greatly increase human misery and depress economic development. Specifically, rapid population growth will have disastrous effects on the region's ability to increase exports and provide people with food. There must be a search for new ways in which these effects could be mitigated. In sub-Saharan Africa fertility either continues to be very high or is increasing, in part due to some decline in traditional practices that reduce fertility, such as prolonged breastfeeding. This situation and the expectation of declining mortality imply that African population growth may increase further. Currently, population in sub-Saharan Africa is about half that of India and a third of China. There are 2 main reasons why reduced fertility in the next few decades is unlikely in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole: Africa has low literacy, high infant and child mortality, and low urbanization; and average African fertility rates may even increase for the next 20 years or so. The question that arises is what are the implications of continuing and rapid population growth for the African food supply. The region's cereal production is largely restricted to 4 grains, i.e., millet, sorghum, maize, and rice. The volume of grain production is less, by weight, than 60% of the production of roots and tubers. There are 2 main differences between the output of these crops in sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world: yields/hectare are lower in Africa than in elsewhere; and yields have generally been decreasing or largely constant in Africa. The low productivity has several causes. Today, population pressure has brought diminishing returns to traditional agriculture in much of the Sahel and the savanna, in parts of East Africa, Southern Africa, and parts

  19. Rapid growth, maturity, current problems, future prospects of NAA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guinn, V.P.

    2000-01-01

    The early rapid growth, the attainment of maturity, current problems, and future prospects of NAA (neutron activation analysis) are discussed, each in reasonable detail. In particular, the nature and causes of its current problems are examined, and suggestions are presented for the solution of these problems. The author believes that vigorous action in suggested areas of concentration can reinvigorate the status of NAA as an important method of elemental analysis. (author)

  20. Impact of demographic policy on population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podyashchikh, P

    1968-01-01

    Various bourgeois theories, including the reactionary Malthusianism and its variants, challenge the Marxist-Leninist revolutionary theory on the growth of population. Bourgeois science maintains that unchanging biological laws of proliferation form the foundation of social life. Malthus, in his "An Essay on the Principle of Population," contends that population increases in a geometric rate, while means of subsistence tend to increase only in an arithmetic rate: neither the way of production nor social conditions but this law of nature in control of proliferation had been the cause of overpopulation, which again leads to misery, hunger, and unemployment. From this follows the possible conclusion that the working classes should be concerned not about how to change the social order but how to reduce the number of childbirths. Progressive science views the laws of social life in a totally different way. Marxism-Leninism teaches that population size, despite the markedly important role played by it in historical progress, fails to represent that main force of social progress which determines the mode of production and of the distribution of material goods, but just the reverse: the mode of production determines the growth of population, the changes in its density and composition. Marxism-Leninism teaches that each historical stage of production (slavery, feudalism, capitalism) has its own special, historically valid demographic law. Bourgeois science maintains that humankind faces an absolute overpopulation caused by the means of production lagging behind the growth of population. Actually this is only a relative overpopulation due to the fact that capitalistic production is subjected to the interests of increasing capitalistic profit and not to those of meeting the demands of population. In socialist countries, production is incessantly developing and expanding, and employment of the entire productive population is ensured. Consequently, the problem of relative

  1. Comparison of customised growth charts v. standard population

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    pregnant diabetic population using population-based growth charts and customised growth charts. Methods. ... Of the patients, 44 had type 1, 66 type 2 and 173 gestational diabetes. The growth of .... with diabetic ketoacidosis, of whom one.

  2. Endogenous population growth may imply chaos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prskawetz, A; Feichtinger, G

    1995-01-01

    The authors consider a discrete-time neoclassical growth model with an endogenous rate of population growth. The resulting one-dimensional map for the capital intensity has a tilted z-shape. Using the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems, they obtain numerical results on the qualitative behavior of time paths for changing parameter values. Besides stable and periodic solutions, erratic time paths may result. In particular, myopic and far-sighted economies--assumed to be characterized by low and high savings rate respectively--are characterized by stable per capita capital stocks, while solutions with chaotic windows exist between these two extremes.

  3. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

  4. The rapid growth of OPEC′s domestic oil consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gately, Dermot; Al-Yousef, Nourah; Al-Sheikh, Hamad M.H.

    2013-01-01

    OPEC′s domestic oil consumption has increased seven-fold in 40 years, to 8.5 million barrels per day (mbd). They consume almost as much oil as China. This constitutes one-fourth of their production. Such rapid growth in consumption (5.1% annually, faster than their income growth of 3.1%) will challenge OPEC′s ability to increase their oil exports, which are relied upon in long-term world oil projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA), US Department of Energy (DOE/EIA) and British Petroleum (BP). However, these institutions assume unprecedented slowdowns in OPEC oil consumption – to less than 2% in the future – allowing them to project increases in OPEC oil exports with only modest increases in production. We analyze 1971–2010 data econometrically, with panel co-integration methods. We estimate that the income elasticity of consumption is about 1 for energy and oil. This means that OPEC′s energy and oil consumption will grow as rapidly as their income. Hence, continued high growth rates for domestic oil consumption are more likely than the unprecedented slowdowns projected by IEA, DOE/EIA and BP – adding an extra 6 mbd of OPEC consumption in 2030. This will have major implications for OPEC production and export levels, and for world oil prices. -- Highlights: •We analyze rapid growth of OPEC oil consumption (sevenfold since 1971: 5.1% annually). •Panel co-integration econometric estimate of income elasticity about 1.0. •Consensus projections (IEA, DOE/EIA) have consistently under projected OPEC consumption. •Future oil market implications if OPEC consumption grows as fast as income (as in past)

  5. Economic consequences of population size, structure and growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, R

    1983-01-01

    the consequences of population in both developed and developing countries. In general cross national studies have failed to provide rough and stylized depiction of the consequences of rapid population growth, unless the absence of significant results is itself the result.

  6. Polygenic Risk, Rapid Childhood Growth, and the Development of Obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belsky, Daniel W.; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Houts, Renate; Bennett, Gary G.; Biddle, Andrea K.; Blumenthal, James A.; Evans, James P.; Harrington, HonaLee; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Poulton, Richie; Caspi, Avshalom

    2012-01-01

    Objective To test how genomic loci identified in genome-wide association studies influence the development of obesity. Design A 38-year prospective longitudinal study of a representative birth cohort. Setting The Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study, Dunedin, New Zealand. Participants One thousand thirty-seven male and female study members. Main Exposures We assessed genetic risk with a multilocus genetic risk score. The genetic risk score was composed of single-nucleotide polymorphisms identified in genome-wide association studies of obesity-related phenotypes. We assessed family history from parent body mass index data collected when study members were 11 years of age. Main Outcome Measures Body mass index growth curves, developmental phenotypes of obesity, and adult obesity outcomes were defined from anthropometric assessments at birth and at 12 subsequent in-person interviews through 38 years of age. Results Individuals with higher genetic risk scores were more likely to be chronically obese in adulthood. Genetic risk first manifested as rapid growth during early childhood. Genetic risk was unrelated to birth weight. After birth, children at higher genetic risk gained weight more rapidly and reached adiposity rebound earlier and at a higher body mass index. In turn, these developmental phenotypes predicted adult obesity, mediating about half the genetic effect on adult obesity risk. Genetic associations with growth and obesity risk were independent of family history, indicating that the genetic risk score could provide novel information to clinicians. Conclusions Genetic variation linked with obesity risk operates, in part, through accelerating growth in the early childhood years after birth. Etiological research and prevention strategies should target early childhood to address the obesity epidemic. PMID:22665028

  7. Rapid evolution leads to differential population dynamics and top-down control in resurrected Daphnia populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goitom, Eyerusalem; Kilsdonk, Laurens J; Brans, Kristien; Jansen, Mieke; Lemmens, Pieter; De Meester, Luc

    2018-01-01

    There is growing evidence of rapid genetic adaptation of natural populations to environmental change, opening the perspective that evolutionary trait change may subsequently impact ecological processes such as population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. To study such eco-evolutionary feedbacks in natural populations, however, requires samples across time. Here, we capitalize on a resurrection ecology study that documented rapid and adaptive evolution in a natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna in response to strong changes in predation pressure by fish, and carry out a follow-up mesocosm experiment to test whether the observed genetic changes influence population dynamics and top-down control of phytoplankton. We inoculated populations of the water flea D. magna derived from three time periods of the same natural population known to have genetically adapted to changes in predation pressure in replicate mesocosms and monitored both Daphnia population densities and phytoplankton biomass in the presence and absence of fish. Our results revealed differences in population dynamics and top-down control of algae between mesocosms harboring populations from the time period before, during, and after a peak in fish predation pressure caused by human fish stocking. The differences, however, deviated from our a priori expectations. An S-map approach on time series revealed that the interactions between adults and juveniles strongly impacted the dynamics of populations and their top-down control on algae in the mesocosms, and that the strength of these interactions was modulated by rapid evolution as it occurred in nature. Our study provides an example of an evolutionary response that fundamentally alters the processes structuring population dynamics and impacts ecosystem features.

  8. Rapid Cycling Genomic Selection in a Multiparental Tropical Maize Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xuecai; Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; Burgueño, Juan; Olsen, Michael; Buckler, Edward; Atlin, Gary; Prasanna, Boddupalli M; Vargas, Mateo; San Vicente, Félix; Crossa, José

    2017-07-05

    Genomic selection (GS) increases genetic gain by reducing the length of the selection cycle, as has been exemplified in maize using rapid cycling recombination of biparental populations. However, no results of GS applied to maize multi-parental populations have been reported so far. This study is the first to show realized genetic gains of rapid cycling genomic selection (RCGS) for four recombination cycles in a multi-parental tropical maize population. Eighteen elite tropical maize lines were intercrossed twice, and self-pollinated once, to form the cycle 0 (C 0 ) training population. A total of 1000 ear-to-row C 0 families was genotyped with 955,690 genotyping-by-sequencing SNP markers; their testcrosses were phenotyped at four optimal locations in Mexico to form the training population. Individuals from families with the best plant types, maturity, and grain yield were selected and intermated to form RCGS cycle 1 (C 1 ). Predictions of the genotyped individuals forming cycle C 1 were made, and the best predicted grain yielders were selected as parents of C 2 ; this was repeated for more cycles (C 2 , C 3 , and C 4 ), thereby achieving two cycles per year. Multi-environment trials of individuals from populations C 0, C 1 , C 2 , C 3 , and C 4 , together with four benchmark checks were evaluated at two locations in Mexico. Results indicated that realized grain yield from C 1 to C 4 reached 0.225 ton ha -1 per cycle, which is equivalent to 0.100 ton ha -1  yr -1 over a 4.5-yr breeding period from the initial cross to the last cycle. Compared with the original 18 parents used to form cycle 0 (C 0 ), genetic diversity narrowed only slightly during the last GS cycles (C 3 and C 4 ). Results indicate that, in tropical maize multi-parental breeding populations, RCGS can be an effective breeding strategy for simultaneously conserving genetic diversity and achieving high genetic gains in a short period of time. Copyright © 2017 Zhang et al.

  9. Population ageing alongside health care spending growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakovljević Mihajlo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Silver Tsunami or population ageing has become a globally widespread phenomenon. The purpose of this review is to observe its dynamics and consequences from a local Balkan perspective. The main drivers of this unique demographic evolution are extended longevity, improved early childhood survival, absorption of women into the labor markets, and consequences of sexual revolution leading to falling female fertility. This process lasting well over a century is taking its toll on contemporary societies. Major side effects are shrinking young labor force and growing pool of elderly and retired citizens in many countries. This equation tends to worsen further in the future threatening long-term financial sustainability of public social and health insurance funds. Notable health expenditure growth, accelerating worldwide since the 1960s, is to a large degree attributable to ageing itself. Growing share of senior citizens increases demand for medical services and costs of health care provision. Home-based care provided by the family caregivers presents another important reality putting a huge burden on modern communities. Serbs are no exception in this landscape. Historical demographic evolution of this nation gives a clear evidence of advanced and accelerated ageing, which is well documented in post-World War II era. This synthesis of rich published evidence shows clear upward parallel trend between the pace of population aging and the growth of health expenditure. National authorities shall be forced to consider reform of the current health care financing pattern inherited from the demographic growth era. This might be the only way to smooth out the impact of population ageing on the financial sustainability of the health system and long-term medical care in Serbia. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. OI 175014

  10. The rapid reproducers paradox: population control and individual procreative rights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wissenburg, M

    1998-01-01

    This article argues that population policies need to be evaluated from macro and micro perspectives and to consider individual rights. Ecological arguments that are stringent conditions of liberal democracy are assessed against a moral standard. The moral standard is applied to a series of reasons for limiting procreative rights in the cause of sustainability. The focus is directly on legally enforced antinatalist measures and not on indirect policies with incentives and disincentives. The explicit assumption is that population policy violates the fairness to individuals for societal gain and that population policies are incompatible with stringent conditions of liberal democracy. The author identifies the individual-societal tradeoff as the "rapid reproducers paradox." The perfect sustainable population level is either not possible or is a repugnant alternative. 12 ecological arguments are presented, and none are found compatible with notions of a liberal democracy. Three alternative antinatalist options are the acceptance of less rigid and still coercive policies, amendments to the conception of liberal democracy, or loss of hope and choice of noncoercive solutions to sustainability, none of which is found viable. If voluntary abstinence and distributive solutions fail, then frugal demand options and technological supply options both will be necessary.

  11. Population growth, demographic change, and cultural landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodgate, G; Sage, C

    1994-01-01

    The inclusion of both ecological and socioeconomic components within landscapes makes possible the perception of the hierarchical character of landscape organization. A research approach is needed to conceptualize cultural landscapes as the product of interaction between society and nature. Richard Norgaard's 1984 paper on coevolutionary agricultural development attempts to meet this challenge. Coevolution is the interactive synthesis of natural and social mechanisms of change that characterize the relationship between social systems and ecosystems. The relationship between population, consumption, and environmental changes is complex. Currently industrialized countries present the biggest threat to global environmental resources. The issue of carrying capacity is the corollary of population and the environment. It is primarily the technological factor rather than population that needs to be controlled. The relationship between rich and poor countries is determined by superior economic power. An analysis of landscape change is made, tracing the coevolution of society and environment from the end of the feudal era and making comparisons with continental Europe. Over the years since 1945 the need to realize potential economies of scale has resulted in a wholesale loss of woodlands, hedgerows, and small ponds in the UK. In a global context the likely impacts of population growth and demographic change on landscapes will be influenced by such socioeconomic factors as technology and affluence; policies that ignore cause and effect; and the traditional tendency to treat the environment as a waste repository and a supply depot.

  12. Rapid Growth of Uropathogenic Escherichia coli during Human Urinary Tract Infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerie S. Forsyth

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC strains cause most uncomplicated urinary tract infections (UTIs. These strains are a subgroup of extraintestinal pathogenic E. coli (ExPEC strains that infect extraintestinal sites, including urinary tract, meninges, bloodstream, lungs, and surgical sites. Here, we hypothesize that UPEC isolates adapt to and grow more rapidly within the urinary tract than other E. coli isolates and survive in that niche. To date, there has not been a reliable method available to measure their growth rate in vivo. Here we used two methods: segregation of nonreplicating plasmid pGTR902, and peak-to-trough ratio (PTR, a sequencing-based method that enumerates bacterial chromosomal replication forks present during cell division. In the murine model of UTI, UPEC strain growth was robust in vivo, matching or exceeding in vitro growth rates and only slowing after reaching high CFU counts at 24 and 30 h postinoculation (hpi. In contrast, asymptomatic bacteriuria (ABU strains tended to maintain high growth rates in vivo at 6, 24, and 30 hpi, and population densities did not increase, suggesting that host responses or elimination limited population growth. Fecal strains displayed moderate growth rates at 6 hpi but did not survive to later times. By PTR, E. coli in urine of human patients with UTIs displayed extraordinarily rapid growth during active infection, with a mean doubling time of 22.4 min. Thus, in addition to traditional virulence determinants, including adhesins, toxins, iron acquisition, and motility, very high growth rates in vivo and resistance to the innate immune response appear to be critical phenotypes of UPEC strains.

  13. Rapid genetic erosion in pollutant-exposed experimental chironomid populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nowak, Carsten [Abteilung Okologie und Evolution, Institut fuer Okologie, Evolution und Diversitaet, J. W. Goethe-Universitaet Frankfurt am Main, Siesmayerstrasse 70, 60054 Frankfurt am Main (Germany)], E-mail: cnowak@senckenberg.de; Vogt, Christian [Abteilung Aquatische Okotoxikologie, Institut fuer Okologie, Evolution und Diversitaet, J. W. Goethe-Universitaet Frankfurt am Main, Siesmayerstrasse 70, 60054 Frankfurt am Main (Germany)], E-mail: vogt@bio.uni-frankfurt.de; Pfenninger, Markus [Abteilung Okologie und Evolution, Institut fuer Okologie, Evolution und Diversitaet, J. W. Goethe-Universitaet Frankfurt am Main, Siesmayerstrasse 70, 60054 Frankfurt am Main (Germany)], E-mail: pfenninger@bio.uni-frankfurt.de; Schwenk, Klaus [Abteilung Okologie und Evolution, Institut fuer Okologie, Evolution und Diversitaet, J. W. Goethe-Universitaet Frankfurt am Main, Siesmayerstrasse 70, 60054 Frankfurt am Main (Germany)], E-mail: k.schwenk@bio.uni-frankfurt.de; Oehlmann, Joerg [Abteilung Aquatische Okotoxikologie, Institut fuer Okologie, Evolution und Diversitaet, J. W. Goethe-Universitaet Frankfurt am Main, Siesmayerstrasse 70, 60054 Frankfurt am Main (Germany)], E-mail: oehlmann@bio.uni-frankfurt.de; Streit, Bruno [Abteilung Okologie und Evolution, Institut fuer Okologie, Evolution und Diversitaet, J. W. Goethe-Universitaet Frankfurt am Main, Siesmayerstrasse 70, 60054 Frankfurt am Main (Germany)], E-mail: streit@bio.uni-frankfurt.de; Oetken, Matthias [Abteilung Aquatische Okotoxikologie, Institut fuer Okologie, Evolution und Diversitaet, J. W. Goethe-Universitaet Frankfurt am Main, Siesmayerstrasse 70, 60054 Frankfurt am Main (Germany)], E-mail: oetken@bio.uni-frankfurt.de

    2009-03-15

    Few studies have evaluated how effectively environmental contamination may reduce genetic diversity of a population. Here, we chose a laboratory approach in order to test if tributyltin (TBT) exposure at environmentally relevant concentrations leads to reduced genetic variation in the midge Chironomus riparius. Two TBT-exposed and two unexposed experimental populations were reared simultaneously in the laboratory for 12 generations. We recorded several life-history traits in each generation and monitored genetic variation over time using five variable microsatellite markers. TBT-exposed strains showed increased larval mortality (treatments: 43.8%; controls: 27.8%), slightly reduced reproductive output, and delayed larval development. Reduction of genetic variation was strongest and only significant in the TBT-exposed strains (treatments: -45.9%, controls: -24.4% of initial heterozygosity) after 12 generations. Our findings document that chemical pollution may lead to a rapid decrease in genetic diversity, which has important implications for conservation strategies and ecological management in polluted environments. - Chronic TBT exposure reduces allelic variation at five variable microsatellite loci in experimental populations of Chironomus riparius.

  14. Rapid genetic erosion in pollutant-exposed experimental chironomid populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowak, Carsten; Vogt, Christian; Pfenninger, Markus; Schwenk, Klaus; Oehlmann, Joerg; Streit, Bruno; Oetken, Matthias

    2009-01-01

    Few studies have evaluated how effectively environmental contamination may reduce genetic diversity of a population. Here, we chose a laboratory approach in order to test if tributyltin (TBT) exposure at environmentally relevant concentrations leads to reduced genetic variation in the midge Chironomus riparius. Two TBT-exposed and two unexposed experimental populations were reared simultaneously in the laboratory for 12 generations. We recorded several life-history traits in each generation and monitored genetic variation over time using five variable microsatellite markers. TBT-exposed strains showed increased larval mortality (treatments: 43.8%; controls: 27.8%), slightly reduced reproductive output, and delayed larval development. Reduction of genetic variation was strongest and only significant in the TBT-exposed strains (treatments: -45.9%, controls: -24.4% of initial heterozygosity) after 12 generations. Our findings document that chemical pollution may lead to a rapid decrease in genetic diversity, which has important implications for conservation strategies and ecological management in polluted environments. - Chronic TBT exposure reduces allelic variation at five variable microsatellite loci in experimental populations of Chironomus riparius

  15. Growth medium for the rapid isolation and identification of anthrax

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiel, Johnathan L.; Parker, Jill E.; Grubbs, Teri R.; Alls, John L.

    2000-07-01

    Anthrax has been recognized as a highly likely biological warfare or terrorist agent. The purpose of this work was to design a culture technique to rapidly isolate and identify `live' anthrax. In liquid or solid media form, 3AT medium (3-amino-L-tyrosine, the main ingredient) accelerated germination and growth of anthrax spores in 5 to 6 hours to a point expected at 18 to 24 hours with ordinary medium. During accelerated growth, standard definitive diagnostic tests such as sensitivity to lysis by penicillin or bacteriophage can be run. During this time, the bacteria synthesized a fluorescent and thermochemiluminescent polymer. Bacteria captured by specific antibody are, therefore, already labeled. Because living bacteria are required to generate the polymer, the test converts immunoassays for anthrax into viability assays. Furthermore, the polymer formation leads to the death of the vegetative form and non-viability of the spores produced in the medium. By altering the formulation of the medium, other microbes and even animal and human cells can be grown in it and labeled (including viruses grown in the animal or human cells).

  16. [The decline in population growth, income distribution, and economic recession].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banguero, H

    1983-05-01

    This work uses Keynesian principles and an analysis of the Colombian population in the 1970s to argue that the Colombian policy of slowing population growth, which was adopted with the aim of improving the general welfare of the population, has had shortterm negative effects on effective demand and thus on the level of employment and welfare. These negative effects were caused by the inflexibility of income distribution, which prevented expansion of the internal market, complicated by the stagnant condition of the external sector and the budget deficit. The results of the Colombian case study demonstrate how the deceleration of population growth beginning in the 1960s had a significant impact on the levels of consumption and savings and on the patterns of consumption, leading to low levels of investment and little dynamism. Although the current Colombian economic recession is aggravated by contextual factors such as the world economic recession, the high cost of capital, the industrial recession, and declining food production among others, at the core of the crisis are longer term structural determinants such as the decline in the rate of population growth and the highly unequal distribution of income and wealth, which have contributed to a shrinking of the internal market for some types of goods. Given the unlikelihood of renewed rapid population growth, the Keynesian model suggests that the only alternative for increasing aggregate demand is state intervention through public spending and investment and reorientation of the financial system to achieve a dynamic redistribution of income. Based on these findings and on proposals of other analysts, a stragegy for revitalization is proposed which would imply a gradual income redistribution to allow increased consumption of mass produced goods by the low income groups. Direct consumption subsidies would be avoided because of their inflationary and import-expanding tendencies; rather, incentives and support would be

  17. Population growth and United States politics in the 1970s.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nash, A E

    1973-01-01

    The 2 themes of this century, increasing environmental fragility and increasing human demands on government, are underlined by the failure of government to effectively govern, and the complex technology and modern communication systems which further divide the developing nations from the developed ones. Population stabilization may help relieve the tension between increasing expectation from government and the fiscal bind in 3 ways: 1)a higher per capita income would increase per capita government revenue which would have a better chance of meeting citizen expectations, 2)a moderately redistributive effect on personal income might occur by decreasing unwanted fertility through the dynamics of economics and increasing the role of government in elevating living standards, and 3)with reduction of government expenditure per capita, the cost of providing any given level of service would decrease. The nuclear age has altered the concept of what constitutes national security. Rapid population growth in the developing countries is also significant, and the United States economy depends on overseas investment. A constructive foreign policy, as opposed to neoimperialism or isolationism, is recommended to help influence world population growth.

  18. Population, internal migration, and economic growth: an empirical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreland, R S

    1982-01-01

    The role of population growth in the development process has received increasing attention during the last 15 years, as manifested in the literature in 3 broad categories. In the 1st category, the effects of rapid population growth on the growth of income have been studied with the use of simulation models, which sometimes include endogenous population growth. The 2nd category of the literature is concerned with theoretical and empirical studies of the economic determinants of various demographic rates--most usually fertility. Internal migration and dualism is the 3rd population development category to recieve attention. An attempt is made to synthesize developments in these 3 categories by estimating from a consistent set of data a 2 sector economic demographic model in which the major demographic rates are endogenous. Due to the fact that the interactions between economic and demographic variables are nonlinear and complex, the indirect effects of changes in a particular variable may depend upon the balance of numerical coefficients. For this reason it was felt that the model should be empirically grounded. A brief overview of the model is provided, and the model is compared to some similar existing models. Estimation of the model's 9 behavior equations is discussed, followed by a "base run" simulation of a developing country "stereotype" and a report of a number of policy experiments. The relatively new field of economic determinants of demographic variables was drawn upon in estimating equations to endogenize demographic phenomena that are frequently left exogenous in simulation models. The fertility and labor force participation rate functions are fairly standard, but a step beyong existing literature was taken in the life expectancy and intersectorial migration equations. On the economic side, sectoral savings functions were estimated, and it was found that the marginal propensity to save is lower in agriculture than in nonagriculture. Testing to see the

  19. Growth perturbations in a phenotype with rapid fetal growth preceding preterm labor and term birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lampl, Michelle; Kusanovic, Juan Pedro; Erez, Offer; Gotsch, Francesca; Espinoza, Jimmy; Goncalves, Luis; Lee, Wesley; Gomez, Ricardo; Nien, Jyh Kae; Frongillo, Edward A; Romero, Roberto

    2009-01-01

    The variability in fetal growth rates and gestation duration in humans is not well understood. Of interest are women presenting with an episode of preterm labor and subsequently delivering a term neonate, who is small relative to peers of similar gestational age. To further understand these relationships, fetal growth patterns predating an episode of preterm labor were investigated. Retrospective analysis of fetal biometry assessed by serial ultrasound in a prospectively studied sample of pregnancies in Santiago, Chile, tested the hypothesis that fetal growth patterns among uncomplicated pregnancies (n = 3,706) and those with an episode of preterm labor followed by term delivery (n = 184) were identical across the time intervals 16-22 weeks, 22-28 weeks, and 28-34 weeks in a multilevel mixed-effects regression. The hypothesis was not supported. Fetal weight growth rate was faster from 16 weeks among pregnancies with an episode of preterm labor (P < 0.05), declined across midgestation (22-28 weeks, P < 0.05), and rebounded between 28 and 34 weeks (P = 0.06). This was associated with perturbations in abdominal circumference growth and proportionately larger biparietal diameter from 22 gestational weeks (P = 0.03), greater femur (P = 0.01), biparietal diameter (P = 0.001) and head circumference (P = 0.02) dimensions relative to abdominal circumference across midgestation (22-28 weeks), followed by proportionately smaller femur diaphyseal length (P = 0.02) and biparietal diameter (P = 0.03) subsequently. A distinctive rapid growth phenotype characterized fetal growth preceding an episode of preterm labor among this sample of term-delivered neonates. Perturbations in abdominal circumference growth and patterns of proportionality suggest an altered growth strategy pre-dating the preterm labor episode.

  20. Growth of rural population in Punjab, 1971-81.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, M S

    1987-01-01

    Except for the decade 1941-1951, in which Punjab's population declined because of a huge exchange of population between India and Pakistan and a large loss of life, the decade 1971-1981 was the 1st decade since 1911 to experience a deceleration in the growth rate of the rural population of Punjab, India. The deceleration was due to out-migration to urban areas. The scheduled caste population increased 28.37% between 1971 and 1981, while the nonscheduled caste population increased by only 13.32%, which was considerably below the rate of natural increase. Nonscheduled castes had experienced substantial out-migration because of 1) improved transport and communication facilities which enabled them to move to urban centers; 2) mechanization of main farming operations and easy availability of migrant laborers which lessened the need for family labor; 3) the rise of a relatively mobile younger generation with a high literacy rate; 4) rapidly decreasing land holdings which strengthened the push factor in the countryside; and 5) rising aspirations, especially among the younger generation. In 1981, Sikhs constituted 71.3% of the rural population in Punjab, followed by Hindus (26.51%), Christians (1.25%), and Muslims (.89%). From 1971-1981, Muslims experienced the greatest increase (49.29%). Sikhs grew by 20.74% and Hindus by 9.02%. The Sikhs high growth rate was due to 1) a new technique for counting religious affiliation in which all members of a household are considered the same religion as the head of household and 2) conversion of Hindus to Sikhism. Hindus had a low growth rate because 1) the new method of counting religious affiliation and 2) rural-urban migration. The area with the lowest population increase resulted from industrialists and other nonagriculturists buying farmland, causing the agriculturists to move away to less desirable land. Conclusions are 1) the sharp rural-urban division along religious lines should be lessened, 2) Sikhs' lag in urbanization and

  1. Implications of population growth for Nigeria's development | Fan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nigeria's population that was 16 million in 1911 is about 140 million today. Attention invariably turns to the implications of this growth to the qualities of life for her inhabitants. The paper notes that high birth rate, low death rate and migration are the sources of the high population growth in Nigeria. The population then ...

  2. Growth in an English population from the Industrial Revolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mays, S; Brickley, M; Ives, R

    2008-05-01

    The rapid urbanization of the Industrial Revolution in 18th-19th century England presented new health challenges. Our aim is to investigate using English skeletal remains whether the living conditions for an urban working class group in the Industrial Revolution negatively impacted upon their skeletal growth compared with a population from a rural agrarian parish. The Industrial Revolution skeletal material is from St Martin's Churchyard, Birmingham (SMB), West Midlands. It dates primarily from the first half of the nineteenth century when Birmingham was a major manufacturing center. The rural group is from Wharram Percy (WP), North Yorkshire, and dates from 10th-19th century AD. The methodology involves plotting diaphyseal bone lengths versus dental age for subadults. No overall difference was found between the two populations in bone length-for-age among the 2- to 18-year cohort. However the younger parts of the SMB cohort were smaller than at WP; the opposite was true of the older parts of the cohort. Growth rate, as inferred from crosssectional data, appeared greater at SMB than at WP. The only result consistent with expectations is the larger bone dimensions in young children from WP, but this likely reflects prolonged breastfeeding at WP not differences in urban and rural environments. That the deleterious health effects that we know accompanied the major transition in human society from a rural agrarian to an urban industrialized living environment should be little manifest in skeletal endochondral growth data is discouraging for those who would use such methodology to monitor health in earlier populations. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  3. [Fifty years of population growth and absorbing manual labor in Brazil, 1950-2000].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, P D

    1986-01-01

    The economically active population has grown rapidly in Brazil, resulting either from population growth or increased female participation in the work force. This rhythm of growth will continue at least until the end of this century. The authors suggest that the impact of the recent decline in fertility will be moderate and will only affect the younger age groups. Despite the rapid growth of employment in the processing industry, the relative size of the so-called informal sector has remained stable since 1950. It is further predicted that, given the economically active population's rate of growth and the decrease in employment in agriculture, there will be a great demand for urban employment in the next 20 years.

  4. 1 2 POPULATION GROWTH AND THE DILEMMA OF RURAL LIFE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Ike

    The high as well as the unrestrained population growth rate of the country has, to a ... that it stimulates business and general economic growth cycles and therefore .... The privilege and opportunity of acquiring functional education, for instance ...

  5. Adapting to Population Growth: The Evolutionary Alternative to Malthus

    OpenAIRE

    Axel Kristinsson; Árni Daníel Júlíusson

    2016-01-01

    A long-standing debate on the dynamics of population growth in human history has become polarized between a Malthusian stance and a Boserupian one. The former tends to view population growth as limited by carrying capacity, dependent on environment and technology, whereas the latter sees population growth itself as a major inducement to social, economic and technological developments. In this paper the authors experiment with approaching this debate by using recent developments in evolutionar...

  6. The Population Growth and Carrying Capacity in Semarang City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hariyanto; Hadi, Sudharto P.; Buchori, Imam

    2018-02-01

    Population growth and development of city activities take some lands to carry them. As a result, land use competition happens among persons, society or sector. Land necessity for settlement, industry, or sector has taken over farm land, therefore farm land has been converted intensively and massively. Chronologically, population growth will cause land necessity increase. Unproductive land, especially farm land will be converted. Furthermore, farm land conversion will cause carrying capacity change. Carrying capacity has certain bio capacity. With the population growth, it will increase resource consumption; on the other side, farm land conversion will decrease carrying capacity. The objective of the study is to know about the influence of population growth towards carrying capacity (bio capacity) in Semarang city. Land consumption per capita is indeed influenced by city population, the higher the population is, the lower the land consumption per capita. With the population growth, it will influence carrying capacity. Carrying capacity here is the ratio of area to population. Analytical descriptive method is applied in the study with all sub-districts in Semarang city as the analysis unit. Population here is sub-district area and population per sub-district in Semarang city. Population growth data period is from 2000 until 2015. Main variables of the study are area per sub-district, population, population growth, carrying capacity. Result of the study shows significant influence of carrying capacity decrease, especially some outskirts in Semarang city. This condition happens because the outskirts in Semarang city tend to have dense population growth. Range of carrying capacity in Semarang city is from 0,007 to 0,117 of 0 to 1. Almost all sub-districts in Semarang city show miserable condition, except Mijen and Tugu. The conclusion of the study is that population will decrease carrying capacity. Therefore, the government should control population growth by paying

  7. Migration, urban population growth and regional disparity in China

    OpenAIRE

    Renard, Mary-Françoise; Xu, Zelai; Zhu, Nong

    2011-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to study the determinants of city population growth in China during the 1990s', as well as the determinants of migrations towards cities, which constitutes the main source of urban population growth in this period. A second objective is to identify regional differences in the urban growth and migrations, that is, whether urban growth and migration patterns are different between coastal and inland provinces. Additionally, we are interested in the differences...

  8. Human Capital, Population Growth and Economic Development: Beyond Correlations

    OpenAIRE

    Rosenzweig, Mark R.

    1987-01-01

    Empirical evidence on three assertions commonly-made by population policy advocates about the relationships among population growth, human capital formation and economic development is discussed and evaluated in the light of economic-biological models of household behavior and of its relevance to population policy. The three assertions are that (a) population growth and human capital investments jointly reflect and respond to changes in the economic environment, (b) larger families directly i...

  9. Volatility and Growth in Populations of Rural Associations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wollebaek, Dag

    2010-01-01

    This article uses unique community-level data aggregated from censuses of associations to analyze growth and volatility in rural populations of grassroots associations. A qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) shows that the two main paths to growth were (1) centralization in polycephalous (multicentered) municipalities and (2) population growth…

  10. Beyond the Mean: Sensitivities of the Variance of Population Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trotter, Meredith V; Krishna-Kumar, Siddharth; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    2013-03-01

    Populations in variable environments are described by both a mean growth rate and a variance of stochastic population growth. Increasing variance will increase the width of confidence bounds around estimates of population size, growth, probability of and time to quasi-extinction. However, traditional sensitivity analyses of stochastic matrix models only consider the sensitivity of the mean growth rate. We derive an exact method for calculating the sensitivity of the variance in population growth to changes in demographic parameters. Sensitivities of the variance also allow a new sensitivity calculation for the cumulative probability of quasi-extinction. We apply this new analysis tool to an empirical dataset on at-risk polar bears to demonstrate its utility in conservation biology We find that in many cases a change in life history parameters will increase both the mean and variance of population growth of polar bears. This counterintuitive behaviour of the variance complicates predictions about overall population impacts of management interventions. Sensitivity calculations for cumulative extinction risk factor in changes to both mean and variance, providing a highly useful quantitative tool for conservation management. The mean stochastic growth rate and its sensitivities do not fully describe the dynamics of population growth. The use of variance sensitivities gives a more complete understanding of population dynamics and facilitates the calculation of new sensitivities for extinction processes.

  11. Rapid Population Growth and its Implication for Malawi

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    "Environment and Development" was held in Brazil ... income and employment, health and education, ... Fertility is extremely high in Malawi, with the ..... school fees, biased parent/teacher attitudes and ..... Malawi: 'Country profile 1991-92.

  12. AN ANALYSIS OF THE RAPID GROWTH FACTORS PRESENTED IN THE LITERATURE OF THE FIELD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALB MARIA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the main rapid growth factors, as encountered in literature and discusses the importance and contribution of these factors in achieving the rapid growth, respectively if this growth phenomenon may be achieved in the absence of the aforesaid factors. The paper examines the factors and subfactors considered or found by scholars to have an effect on or be in connection with the rapid growth. A comparative analysis was performed on several studies concerning the rapid growth companies. Among the main factors influencing the rapid growth are those related to the human resources management, the entrepreneur characteritics and the characteristics of the business. The paper also discusses several issues related to the will of the manager or the entrepreneur, repectively the need to understand the role of the factors that intervene when the growth is not wanted and still obtained or when the growth is targeted but not achieved. The conclusion is in agreement with other scholars’ findings reported in the literature. Certain factors correlated with the appropriate actions may lead to the rapid growth. The paper represents a starting point for the study of those management related aspects enabling companies to grow rapidly in the Romanian business environment.

  13. Green sea turtle age, growth, population characteristics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Morphology, sex ratio, body condition, disease status, age structure, and growth patterns were characterized for 448 green sea turtles cold stunned in St. Joseph...

  14. Persistent Environmental Toxicants in Breast Milk and Rapid Infant Growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Criswell, Rachel; Lenters, Virissa; Mandal, Siddhartha; Stigum, Hein; Iszatt, Nina; Eggesbø, Merete

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND/AIMS: Many environmental toxicants are passed to infants in utero and through breast milk. Exposure to toxicants during the perinatal period can alter growth patterns, impairing growth or increasing obesity risk. Previous studies have focused on only a few toxicants at a time, which may

  15. The Rapid Reproducers Paradox: Population Control and Individual Procreative Rights

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wissenburg, M.L.J.

    1998-01-01

    In this article, I consider the impact of population policies on individual rights (in a very broad sense of the word), a topic that has received disproportionately little attention in debates on the legitimacy of population rights. I first concentrate on arguments in favour of very radical

  16. Soil science, population growth and food production: some historical developments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartemink, A.E.

    2007-01-01

    The world¿s population has doubled since 1960. Currently, the developing world accounts for about 95% of the population growth with Africa as the world¿s fastest growing continent. The growing population has many implications but most of all it requires an increase in agricultural production to meet

  17. 14 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POPULATION GROWTH AND ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    have lingered about the plausibility and consequences of population ... food supply, environmental degradation and shortage of infrastructural facilities? .... history punctuated by slave trade, colonialism, imperialiqm and globalization all of ...

  18. [Population: evolution of Rwandan attitudes or the adaptation of the Rwanda population to population growth].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngendakumana, M

    1988-04-01

    A consequence of the increasing pressure on Rwanda's ecosystem resulting from population growth has been that demographic factors have played a significant role in modifying attitudes and beliefs of the population. The history of Rwanda demonstrates a constant struggle for survival in the face of increasing population pressure. Migration, colonization of new agricultural lands, adoption of new crops and new forms of animal husbandry have been responses to population pressures. Recent unprecedented population growth has exceeded the capacity of older systems of cultivation and combinations of agricultural and animal husbandry to support the population. Smaller animals have largely replaced the cattle that once roamed freely in extensive pastures, and new techniques of stabling animals, use of organic or chemical fertilizers, and new tools adapted to the shrinking size of farm plots have represented responses to the new demographic realities. The concept of the family is likewise undergoing modification in the face of population growth and modernization. Children, who once were valued as a source of labor and constrained to conform to the wishes of the parents in return for the eventual inheritance of the goods and livelihood, now increasingly look beyond the household for education and employment. Family land holdings have become too small to support all the members with a claim on them. The greater distances between family members inevitably mean that relations between them lose closeness. The choice of a marriage partner is increasingly assumed by the young people themselves and not by their families. Old traditions of food sharing and hospitality have been curtailed because of the increasing scarcity of food. Despite the changes engendered by increasing population pressure, pronatalist sentiments are still widespread. But the desire to assure the future of each child rather than to await his services, a new conception of women less dependent on their reproductive

  19. Making a stand: five centuries of population growth in colonizing populations of Pinus ponderosa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesser, Mark R; Jackson, Stephen T

    2012-05-01

    The processes underlying the development of new populations are important for understanding how species colonize new territory and form viable long-term populations. Life-history-mediated processes such as Allee effects and dispersal capability may interact with climate variability and site-specific factors to govern population success and failure over extended time frames. We studied four disjunct populations of ponderosa pine in the Bighorn Basin of north-central Wyoming to examine population growth spanning more than five centuries. The study populations are separated from continuous ponderosa pine forest by distances ranging from 15 to >100 km. Strong evidence indicates that the initial colonizing individuals are still present, yielding a nearly complete record of population history. All trees in each population were aged using dendroecological techniques. The populations were all founded between 1530 and 1655 cal yr CE. All show logistic growth patterns, with initial exponential growth followed by a slowing during the mid to late 20th century. Initial population growth was slower than expectations from a logistic regression model at all four populations, but increased during the mid-18th century. Initial lags in population growth may have been due to strong Allee effects. A combination of overcoming Allee effects and a transition to favorable climate conditions may have facilitated a mid-18th century pulse in population growth rate.

  20. Curbing population growth in Republic of Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo-hyun, S

    1983-01-26

    The population of Korea is expected to increase by another 1/4 of the current population by the year 2000 if the government family planning program is successful. Aggravating Korea's demographic situation is the worldwide phenomenon of urban congestion. According to official statistics, Seoul's population increased from only 1 million in 1953 to 8.5 million in 1980, the latest year for which figures are available. While Seoul's population alone accounts for 22.3% of the total population, that of the greater Seoul area comprises 13,542,000 people or 35.5% of Korea's population. Most of the country's best institutions of higher learning are concentrated in Seoul, and in 1979 Seoul accounted for nearly half (47.7%) of the nation's college and graduate students. Seoul is also the center of the country's political, economic and cultural life and provides better employment opportunities than elsewhere in the country. The exodus of young people from rural areas and the growing census figures have triggered fears that the subsequently reduced agricultural productivity would result in a food supply crisis. In an attempt to remedy the demographic disparity between urban and rural areas, the government initiated a 10-year program in 1982 to promote jobs and improve medicare and the educational system in provincial cities. The plan encourages the establishment of factories and other auxiliary facilities outside the Seoul area that are necessary to support the 1988 Seoul Olympics. The program's success remains in question as it requires consistent, determined, and well coordinated efforts on the part of policy makers to curb the historical trend which has been gaining momentum over the past 100 years. 2 approaches have been adopted in the government's efforts to integrate population dynamics into the development process, overseas migration, and planned parenthood. Despite the 1981 liberalization of overseas travel for Koreans, Korean migration overseas is not expected to grow

  1. Health, family planning and population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, A; Standley, C C

    1973-01-01

    Maternal age over 35, close spacing of births, parity over 4, and unwanted pregnancy are discussed as factors that are associated with increased maternal and infant mortality. The likelihood of death due to childbearing is twice as high in the 30-40 age group as in the 20-30 age group and increases 4-to five-fold in the 40+ group. Brith Birth of less than 24-30 months are associated with a two-fold increase in neonatal and infant deaths. Health objectives of large scale family planning programs are geared toward avoiding such births. This paper proposes that these objectives would result in a decrease in maternal and child deaths and thereby lead to growth. A simultaneous lowering of birth rates, however, should offset this growth.

  2. Social structural consequences of population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, R E

    1981-01-01

    Estimates from archaeological data of the numbers in the elite classes, nonelite occupational specialists, density of population, city size, and size of political units in the ancient Maya civilization suggest that there was a quantum shift in rate of development in the Early Classic period, associated with intensification of agriculture, and that the social structure approximated to a generalized feudal pattern.

  3. Using Lemna to Study Geometric Population Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeBuhr, Larry E.

    1991-01-01

    An experiment in which students collect and analyze data on the population size of a real organism rather that on a model is presented. The activity allows for the integration of mathematics, graphing techniques, and the use of computers. The lesson is designed to follow the learning cycle format. (KR)

  4. Urban population and economic growth: South Asia perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandip Sarker

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Previously economic growth was generally discussed in terms of foreign direct investment (FDI, educational growth, savings, investments, inflation as well as trade openness of a nation. Very recently it has been identified that population is one of the major determinants of economic growth of a nation. In the recent years, the study of urbanization has gained a matter of concern in developing countries as it has been recognized as part of a larger process of economic development which is affecting developing countries. South Asian countries are one of the emerging economics and growing at a faster rate over the past few years. At the same time, population of South Asia is growing at a significant rate. Therefore the study has attempted to identify the causal relationship between urban population and economic growth in South Asia using a panel data analysis. The study makes use of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF and Phillips-Perron (PP, Pesaran as well as Fisher methods for panel unit root test. The panel Pedroni cointegration test suggests that there is long run relationship between the variables. The further panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM suggests that there is long run causality running from urban population growth to economic growth in South Asia. The study concludes that the growth of urban population can have significant impact on economic growth in South Asia in the long run.

  5. Innovation and the growth of human population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinberger, V P; Quiñinao, C; Marquet, P A

    2017-12-05

    Biodiversity is sustained by and is essential to the services that ecosystems provide. Different species would use these services in different ways, or adaptive strategies, which are sustained in time by continuous innovations. Using this framework, we postulate a model for a biological species ( Homo sapiens ) in a finite world where innovations, aimed at increasing the flux of ecosystem services (a measure of habitat quality), increase with population size, and have positive effects on the generation of new innovations (positive feedback) as well as costs in terms of negatively affecting the provision of ecosystem services. We applied this model to human populations, where technological innovations are driven by cumulative cultural evolution. Our model shows that depending on the net impact of a technology on the provision of ecosystem services ( θ ), and the strength of technological feedback ( ξ ), different regimes can result. Among them, the human population can fill the entire planet while maximizing their well-being, but not exhaust ecosystem services. However, this outcome requires positive or green technologies that increase the provision of ecosystem services with few negative externalities or environmental costs, and that have a strong positive feedback in generating new technologies of the same kind. If the feedback is small, then the technological stock can collapse together with the human population. Scenarios where technological innovations generate net negative impacts may be associated with a limited technological stock as well as a limited human population at equilibrium and the potential for collapse. The only way to fill the planet with humans under this scenario of negative technologies is by reducing the technological stock to a minimum. Otherwise, the only feasible equilibrium is associated with population collapse. Our model points out that technological innovations per se may not help humans to grow and dominate the planet. Instead

  6. Poverty-led higher population growth in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakibullah, A; Rahman, A

    1996-01-01

    This article discusses the issue whether population growth is exogenous or endogenous in the economic development of Bangladesh. Overpopulation adversely affects food supplies, foreign exchange, and human resources. Moreover, it depresses savings per capita and retards growth of physical capital per labor. Underdeveloped countries, like Bangladesh, are faced with the problem of allocating resources between infrastructure, education, and health service that are essential for human capital development and population control measures. With this, determination whether fertility is exogenous or endogenous is important for policy purposes in the context of Bangladesh. Results showed that there is a correlation between population growth and real gross domestic products per capita. Based on Granger causality test, population growth is endogenous in the development process of Bangladesh and its overpopulation is due to poverty. Thus, there is a need for appropriate policy to take measures to improve human capital and decrease fertility rates.

  7. The Growth of Older Inmate Populations: How Population Aging Explains Rising Age at Admission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luallen, Jeremy; Cutler, Christopher

    2017-09-01

    Older inmates are the fastest growing segment of the prison population; however, the reasons for this are not well understood. One explanation is that the general population is aging, driving prison age distributions to change. For this article, we study the role of population aging in prison growth by investigating how the baby boom phenomenon of post-World War II has contributed to the growth of older inmate populations. We identify the impact of population aging using simulation methods that explain prison growth as the combination of criminal justice processes. Overall, we find evidence that population aging has played a significant role in explaining the growth of older inmate populations, in particular among inmates aged between 50 and 64 years, contributing to as much as half of the observed increase in these groups since 2000. This finding stands in contrast to the notion that population aging has little explanatory power in describing the growth of prison populations and implies that older inmate groups are more sensitive to compositional changes in the general population. We argue that prediction-based modeling of prison growth should more seriously consider the impacts and consequences of demographic shifts among older prisoner populations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Rapid divergence of mussel populations despite incomplete barriers to dispersal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maas, Diede L; Prost, Stefan; Bi, Ke; Smith, Lydia L; Armstrong, Ellie E; Aji, Ludi P; Toha, Abdul Hamid A; Gillespie, Rosemary G; Becking, Leontine E

    2018-04-01

    Striking genetic structure among marine populations at small spatial scales is becoming evident with extensive molecular studies. Such observations suggest isolation at small scales may play an important role in forming patterns of genetic diversity within species. Isolation-by-distance, isolation-by-environment and historical priority effects are umbrella terms for a suite of processes that underlie genetic structure, but their relative importance at different spatial and temporal scales remains elusive. Here, we use marine lakes in Indonesia to assess genetic structure and assess the relative roles of the processes in shaping genetic differentiation in populations of a bivalve mussel (Brachidontes sp.). Marine lakes are landlocked waterbodies of similar age (6,000-10,000 years), but with heterogeneous environments and varying degrees of connection to the sea. Using a population genomic approach (double-digest restriction-site-associated DNA sequencing), we show strong genetic structuring across populations (range F ST : 0.07-0.24) and find limited gene flow through admixture plots. At large spatial scales (>1,400 km), a clear isolation-by-distance pattern was detected. At smaller spatial scales (connection. We hypothesize that (incomplete) dispersal barriers can cause initial isolation, allowing priority effects to give the numerical advantage necessary to initiate strong genetic structure. Priority effects may be strengthened by local adaptation, which the data may corroborate by showing a high correlation between mussel genotypes and temperature. Our study indicates an often-neglected role of (evolution-mediated) priority effects in shaping population divergence. © 2018 The Authors. Molecular Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Diet quality limits summer growth of field vole populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristian M Forbes

    Full Text Available Marked variation occurs in both seasonal and multiannual population density peaks of northern European small mammal species, including voles. The availability of dietary proteins is a key factor limiting the population growth of herbivore species. The objective of this study is to investigate the degree to which protein availability influences the growth of increasing vole populations. We hypothesise that the summer growth of folivorous vole populations is positively associated with dietary protein availability. A field experiment was conducted over a summer reproductive period in 18 vegetated enclosures. Populations of field voles (Microtus agrestis were randomised amongst three treatment groups: 1 food supplementation with ad libitum high protein (30% dry weight pellets, 2 food supplementation with ad libitum low protein (1% dry weight; both supplemented foods had equivalent energy content pellets, and 3 control (no food supplementation, n = 6 per treatment. Vole density, survival, demographic attributes and condition indicators were monitored with live-trapping and blood sampling. Highest final vole densities were attained in populations that received high protein supplementation and lowest in low protein populations. Control populations displayed intermediate densities. The survival rate of voles was similar in all treatment groups. The proportion of females, and of those that were pregnant or lactating, was highest in the high protein supplemented populations. This suggests that variation in reproductive, rather than survival rates of voles, accounted for density differences between the treatment groups. We found no clear association between population demography and individual physiological condition. Our results demonstrate that dietary protein availability limits vole population growth during the summer growing season. This suggests that the nutritional quality of forage may be an underestimated source of interannual variation in the

  10. Gradient microfluidics enables rapid bacterial growth inhibition testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bing; Qiu, Yong; Glidle, Andrew; McIlvenna, David; Luo, Qian; Cooper, Jon; Shi, Han-Chang; Yin, Huabing

    2014-03-18

    Bacterial growth inhibition tests have become a standard measure of the adverse effects of inhibitors for a wide range of applications, such as toxicity testing in the medical and environmental sciences. However, conventional well-plate formats for these tests are laborious and provide limited information (often being restricted to an end-point assay). In this study, we have developed a microfluidic system that enables fast quantification of the effect of an inhibitor on bacteria growth and survival, within a single experiment. This format offers a unique combination of advantages, including long-term continuous flow culture, generation of concentration gradients, and single cell morphology tracking. Using Escherichia coli and the inhibitor amoxicillin as one model system, we show excellent agreement between an on-chip single cell-based assay and conventional methods to obtain quantitative measures of antibiotic inhibition (for example, minimum inhibition concentration). Furthermore, we show that our methods can provide additional information, over and above that of the standard well-plate assay, including kinetic information on growth inhibition and measurements of bacterial morphological dynamics over a wide range of inhibitor concentrations. Finally, using a second model system, we show that this chip-based systems does not require the bacteria to be labeled and is well suited for the study of naturally occurring species. We illustrate this using Nitrosomonas europaea, an environmentally important bacteria, and show that the chip system can lead to a significant reduction in the period required for growth and inhibition measurements (<4 days, compared to weeks in a culture flask).

  11. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  12. Age and growth of two populations of West Coast steenbras ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... density-dependent competition for food, or biochemical genetic variations between the two populations, are possible reasons for the geographic differences found in the growth rates and length-at-age. Slow growth and longevity are characteristics of West Coast steenbras that make it extremely susceptible to overfishing; ...

  13. Population growth, economic security, and cultural change in wilderness counties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul A. Lorah

    2000-01-01

    A familiar version of the “jobs versus the environment” argument asserts that wilderness areas limit economic growth by locking up potentially productive natural resources. Analysis of the development paths of rural Western counties shows that this is unlikely: the presence of Wilderness is correlated with income, employment and population growth. Similarly, Wilderness...

  14. Rapid and Sensitive Detection of BLAD in Cattle Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Elena Ilie

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Bovine leukocyte adhesion deficiency (BLAD is an autosomal recessive disorder with negative impact on dairy cattle breeding. The molecular basis of BLAD is a single point mutation (A→G, resulting in a single amino acid substitution (aspartic acid → glycine at amino acid 128 in the adhesion molecule CD18. The object of this study was to establish a fast and sensitive molecular genotyping assay to detect BLAD carriers using high-resolution melting (HRM curve analysis. We tested animals with known genotypes for BLAD that were previously confirmed by PCR-RFLP method, and then examined the sensitivity of mutation detection using PCR followed by HRM curve analysis. BLAD carriers were readily detectable using HRM assay. Thus, the PCR-HRM genotyping method is a rapid, easily interpretable, reliable and cost-effective assay for BLAD mutant allele detection. This assay can be useful in cattle genotyping and genetic selection.

  15. The old age security hypothesis and optimal population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bental, B

    1989-03-01

    The application of the Samuelson-Diamond overlapping generations framework to the old age security hypothesis indicates that government intervention schemes can influence the relationship between population growth and capital accumulation. The most direct means of optimizing population growth is through taxes or subsidies that relate to the intergenerational transfer of wealth. A pay-as-you-go social security scheme, in which payment is predicated on the number of children the receiver has and is financed by taxes levied on the working population, emerges as the most likely intervention to produce the optimal steady state equilibrium. This system is able to correct any distortions the private sector may build into it. In contrast, a child support system, in which the government subsidizes or taxes workers according to their family size, can guarantee the optimal capital:labor ratio but not the optimal population growth rate. Thus, if the government seeks to decrease the population growth rate, the appropriate intervention is to levy a lump-sum social-security tax on workers and transfer the revenues to the old; the direction should be reversed if the goal is to increase population growth. Another alternative, a lump sum social security system, can guarantee optimal population growth but not a desirable capital:labor ratio. Finally, the introduction of money as a valued commodity into an economy with a high capital:labor ratio will also serve to decrease the population growth rate and solve the intergenerational transfer problem through the private sector without any need for government intervention.

  16. A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi

    2006-01-01

    Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,…

  17. A new population growth map with variable coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jannussis, A.

    1986-01-01

    In the present paper it is investigated a simple population growth map with variable coefficients. Moreover, it is studied the new population map of the form xsub(j+1) = axsub(j) (1/(1 + bxsub(j)) -1/(1 + cxsub(j))), c not= b, j = 0, 1,..., which is transformed in an equivalent logistic map

  18. Psychologists and the problem of population growth : Reply to Bridgeman

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clayton, Susan; Carrico, Amanda; Steg, Linda; Swim, Janet K.; Bonnes, Mirilia; Devine-Wright, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Bridgeman (2017) describes the important role of population growth in contributing to environmental problems. The present essay argues that population is an important component of human impact on the environment, but it must be considered in combination with consumption rates. A place-based

  19. Uncooled infrared sensors: rapid growth and future perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balcerak, Raymond S.

    2000-07-01

    The uncooled infrared cameras are now available for both the military and commercial markets. The current camera technology incorporates the fruits of many years of development, focusing on the details of pixel design, novel material processing, and low noise read-out electronics. The rapid insertion of cameras into systems is testimony to the successful completion of this 'first phase' of development. In the military market, the first uncooled infrared cameras will be used for weapon sights, driver's viewers and helmet mounted cameras. Major commercial applications include night driving, security, police and fire fighting, and thermography, primarily for preventive maintenance and process control. The technology for the next generation of cameras is even more demanding, but within reach. The paper outlines the technology program planned for the next generation of cameras, and the approaches to further enhance performance, even to the radiation limit of thermal detectors.

  20. [Is it necessary to control the population growth of national minorities].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, X Y

    1981-02-01

    In the process of Socialist construction and modernization, the development of the population of national minorities deserves our attention because it is directly related to the economic and cultural development in the areas inhabited by such national minorities, and it has a great impact on the welfare and future of those people. Moreover, the population growth of the minorities is a key factor in the national population control strategy. A rapid population growth among the minorities has caused serious problems in distribution of farm land and food supply, low personal income, a rise in the unemployment rate, and a rise in the illiteracy rate. This has prevented a rise in the living standard among the minority population. In order to prevent and solve population problems among the minorities, we must take appropriate measures according to local conditions to control population increases. Through popularization of education, population growth may be put under control. For those people who volunteer to practice family planning, the government should provide all kinds of assistance. At the same time, an effort is needed to introduce the necessity of improving birth quality, to popularize new methods of child birth, and to develop health and medical care for the general public, so that the quality of the minority population may be gradually improved.

  1. Lebensraum: paradoxically, population growth may eventually end wars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, J L

    1989-03-01

    Population growth may progressively reduce 1 of the motives for making war. Namely, population growth threatens shortages of resources, and especially land. Impending shortages cause a search for ways to mitigate the shortages. The discoveries eventually produce greater availability of resources than if population growth and pressure on resources had never occurred. The argument runs as follows: 1) Rhetoric about resources scarcity induced by population density has often contributed to international conflict, even if economics has not been the main motive in making war. 2) In the pre-modern era, war to obtain land and other resources may sometimes have been an economically sound policy. 3) Politicians and others in industrially developed nations believe resources may still be a casus belli. 4) Land and other productive resources are no longer worth acquiring at the cost of war.

  2. NADPH promotes the rapid growth of the tumor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Sheng

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available NADPH oxidase is the main source of intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROS. ROS plays an important role in a variety of tumor types. The ROS mediated by NADPH oxidase increases the expression of hypoxia-inducible factor alpha (HIF-α through multiple signaling pathways in tumor, and HIF-α could be regulated and controlled by downstream multiple targeted genes such as vascular endothelial growth factor, glucose transporter to promote tumor angiogenesis, cell energy metabolism reprogram and tumor metastasis. Meanwhile, HIF-α can also regulate the expression of NADPH oxidase by ROS, thus further promoting development of tumor. In this review, we summarized the functions of NADPH in tumorigenesis and discussed their potential implications in cancer therapy.

  3. Prenatal bisphenol a urine concentrations and early rapid growth and overweight risk in the offspring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valvi, Damaskini; Casas, Maribel; Mendez, Michelle A; Ballesteros-Gómez, Ana; Luque, Noelia; Rubio, Soledad; Sunyer, Jordi; Vrijheid, Martine

    2013-11-01

    Increasing experimental evidence suggests that prenatal bisphenol A (BPA) exposure induces offspring weight gain, but these effects remain largely unexplored in humans. We examined the effects of prenatal BPA exposure on postnatal growth and obesity. BPA concentrations were measured in two spot-urine samples collected in the 1st and 3rd trimesters of pregnancy from mothers in a Spanish birth cohort study (n = 402). We used the average of the two creatinine-adjusted BPA concentrations as the exposure variable. Rapid child growth was defined as a weight gain Z score >0.67 in the first 6 months of life. Age- and sex-specific Z scores for body mass index (BMI) were calculated at age 14 months and 4 years, based on the World Health Organization referent; overweight was defined as a BMI Z score greater than or equal to the 85th percentile. Age- and sex-specific waist circumference Z scores were calculated at age 14 months and 4 years using the analysis population mean. Twenty-six percent of children were rapid growers; 25% were overweight at 14 months and 21% at 4 years. Geometric mean BPA concentrations were 2.6 μg/g creatinine (standard deviation = 2.3) in 1st trimester and 2.0 (2.3) in 3rd trimester samples (Pearson r = 0.13). At 4 years, BPA exposure was associated with increased waist circumference (β per log10 μg/g = 0.28 [95% confidence interval = 0.01 to 0.57]) and BMI (β = 0.28 [-0.06 to 0.63]). BPA was not associated with obesity-related outcomes at earlier ages. This study provides some evidence for an association between prenatal BPA exposure and obesity-related outcomes in childhood, although not in infancy. The large uncertainties in BPA exposure assessment require that findings be interpreted with caution.

  4. The population in China’s earthquake-prone areas has increased by over 32 million along with rapid urbanization

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chunyang; Huang, Qingxu; Dou, Yinyin; Tu, Wei; Liu, Jifu

    2016-07-01

    Accurate assessments of the population exposed to seismic hazard are crucial in seismic risk mapping. Recent rapid urbanization in China has resulted in substantial changes in the size and structure of the population exposed to seismic hazard. Using the latest population census data and seismic maps, this work investigated spatiotemporal changes in the exposure of the population in the most seismically hazardous areas (MSHAs) in China from 1990 to 2010. In the context of rapid urbanization and massive rural-to-urban migration, nearly one-tenth of the Chinese population in 2010 lived in MSHAs. From 1990 to 2010, the MSHA population increased by 32.53 million at a significantly higher rate of change (33.6%) than the national average rate (17.7%). The elderly population in MSHAs increased by 81.4%, which is much higher than the group’s national growth rate of 58.9%. Greater attention should be paid to the demographic changes in earthquake-prone areas in China.

  5. TOPICAL PROBLEMS: The phenomenological theory of world population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapitza, Sergei P.

    1996-01-01

    Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant. Demographic data describe this process in a concise and quantitative way in its past and present. Analysing this development it is possible by applying the concepts of systems analysis and synergetics, to work out a mathematical model for a phenomenological description of the global demographic process and to project its trends into the future. Assuming self-similarity as the dynamic principle of development, growth can be described practically over the whole of human history, assuming the growth rate to be proportional to the square of the number of people. The large parameter of the theory and the effective size of a coherent population group is of the order of 105 and the microscopic parameter of the phenomenology is the human lifespan. The demographic transition — a transition to a stabilised world population of some 14 billion in a foreseeable future — is a systemic singularity and is determined by the inherent pattern of growth of an open system, rather than by the lack of resources. The development of a quantitative nonlinear theory of the world population is of interest for interdisciplinary research in anthropology and demography, history and sociology, for population genetics and epidemiology, for studies in evolution of humankind and the origin of man. The model also provides insight into the stability of growth and the present predicament of humankind, and provides a setting for discussing the main global problems.

  6. Armenia; The Road to Sustained Rapid Growth-Cross-Country Evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Garbis Iradian

    2003-01-01

    This study examines the growth determinants and the economic policy challenges that Armenia faces to sustain the rapid growth of the past two years. The paper also seeks to answer the following two questions: Why has Armenia performed relatively better than other transition economies? What are the roles of macroeconomic policies and the level of financial intermediation in explaining growth differences? The paper also draws upon past cross-country experiences by estimating panel regressions o...

  7. Rapid hydrogen hydrate growth from non-stoichiometric tuning mixtures during liquid nitrogen quenching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grim, R Gary; Kerkar, Prasad B; Sloan, E Dendy; Koh, Carolyn A; Sum, Amadeu K

    2012-06-21

    In this study the rapid growth of sII H(2) hydrate within 20 min of post formation quenching towards liquid nitrogen (LN(2)) temperature is presented. Initially at 72 MPa and 258 K, hydrate samples would cool to the conditions of ~60 MPa and ~90 K after quenching. Although within the stability region for H(2) hydrate, new hydrate growth only occurred under LN(2) quenching of the samples when preformed hydrate "seeds" of THF + H(2) were in the presence of unconverted ice. The characterization of hydrate seeds and the post-quenched samples was performed with confocal Raman spectroscopy. These results suggest that quenching to LN(2) temperature, a common preservation technique for ex situ hydrate analysis, can lead to rapid unintended hydrate growth. Specifically, guest such as H(2) that may otherwise need sufficiently long induction periods to nucleate, may still experience rapid growth through an increased kinetic effect from a preformed hydrate template.

  8. The impact of rapid evolution on population dynamics in the wild: experimental test of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Hare, J Daniel

    2011-11-01

    Rapid evolution challenges the assumption that evolution is too slow to impact short-term ecological dynamics. This insight motivates the study of 'Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics' or how evolution and ecological processes reciprocally interact on short time scales. We tested how rapid evolution impacts concurrent population dynamics using an aphid (Myzus persicae) and an undomesticated host (Hirschfeldia incana) in replicated wild populations. We manipulated evolvability by creating non-evolving (single clone) and potentially evolving (two-clone) aphid populations that contained genetic variation in intrinsic growth rate. We observed significant evolution in two-clone populations whether or not they were exposed to predators and competitors. Evolving populations grew up to 42% faster and attained up to 67% higher density, compared with non-evolving control populations but only in treatments exposed to competitors and predators. Increased density also correlates with relative fitness of competing clones suggesting a full eco-evolutionary dynamic cycle defined as reciprocal interactions between evolution and density. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  9. Population growth, human development, and deforestation in biodiversity hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jha, S; Bawa, K S

    2006-06-01

    Human population and development activities affect the rate of deforestation in biodiversity hotspots. We quantified the effect of human population growth and development on rates of deforestation and analyzed the relationship between these causal factors in the 1980s and 1990s. We compared the averages of population growth, human development index (HDI, which measures income, health, and education), and deforestation rate and computed correlations among these variables for countries that contain biodiversity hotspots. When population growth was high and HDI was low there was a high rate of deforestation, but when HDI was high, rate of deforestation was low, despite high population growth. The correlation among variables was significant for the 1990s but not for the 1980s. The relationship between population growth and HDI had a regional pattern that reflected the historical process of development. Based on the changes in HDI and deforestation rate over time, we identified two drivers of deforestation: policy choice and human-development constraints. Policy choices that disregard conservation may cause the loss of forests even in countries that are relatively developed. Lack of development in other countries, on the other hand, may increase the pressure on forests to meet the basic needs of the human population. Deforestation resulting from policy choices may be easier to fix than deforestation arising from human development constraints. To prevent deforestation in the countries that have such constraints, transfer of material and intellectual resources from developed countries may be needed. Popular interest in sustainable development in developed countries can facilitate the transfer of these resources.

  10. Evolution in an Afternoon: Rapid Natural Selection and Adaptation of Bacterial Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delpech, Roger

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes a simple, rapid and low-cost technique for growing bacteria (or other microbes) in an environmental gradient, in order to determine the tolerance of the microbial population to varying concentrations of sodium chloride ions, and suggests how the evolutionary response of a microbial population to the selection pressure of the…

  11. Inflation, GDP growth and population change in the USA

    OpenAIRE

    Ivan Kitov

    2005-01-01

    Inflation in the USA between 1960 and 2004 is studied in the framework of the revealed rigidity of the personal income distribution normalized to the total nominal GDP. Inflation is found to be a mechanism, which prevents changes in the relative incomes induced by economic growth and population changes - both in number and age structure. A model is developed linking CPI to GDP growth rate and relative change of the number of people of some specific age. The GDP growth rate is characterized by...

  12. Populational Growth Models Proportional to Beta Densities with Allee Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleixo, Sandra M.; Rocha, J. Leonel; Pestana, Dinis D.

    2009-05-01

    We consider populations growth models with Allee effect, proportional to beta densities with shape parameters p and 2, where the dynamical complexity is related with the Malthusian parameter r. For p>2, these models exhibit a population dynamics with natural Allee effect. However, in the case of 1

  13. Urban Ecology: Patterns of Population Growth and Ecological Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayne C. Zipperer; Steward T.A. Pickett

    2012-01-01

    Currently, over 50% of the world’s population lives in urban areas. By 2050, this estimate is expected to be 70%. This urban growth, however, is not uniformly distributed around the world. The majority of it will occur in developing nations and create megacities whose populations exceed at least 10 million people. Not all urban areas, however, are growing. Some are...

  14. Rapid Urban Growth and Land Use Patterns in Doha, Qatar: Opportunities for Sustainability?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivek Shandas

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Amidst chaotic growth of Asian cities, the expansion of urban infrastructure in the Middle East's Gulf region is arguably outpacing any other region on the planet. Yet we have a limited understanding of the types of urban form or the extent to which this rapid urbanization is giving rise to sustainable patterns of growth. We ask, what is the pace and character of urban growth in one Middle East city, Doha, Qatar. By using remotely sensed imagery from 1987 to 2013, we examined the pace, quality, and characteristics of urban growth. We further use the results to create a typology of urban growth that integrates historical and spatial dimensions for describing the qualitative aspects of growth and its implications on regional landscapes. Our results suggest that Doha is creating development patterns similar to many Western cities, and that planners may need to consider whether the emerging urban form offers opportunities for more sustainable growth in the future.

  15. Population Growth and Its Expression in Spatial Built-up Patterns: The Sana’a, Yemen Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunter Zeug

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In light of rapid global urbanisation, monitoring and mapping of urban and population growth is of great importance. Population growth in Sana’a was investigated for this reason. The capital of the Republic of Yemen is a rapidly growing middle sized city where the population doubles almost every ten years. Satellite data from four different sensors were used to explore urban growth in Sana’a between 1989 and 2007, assisted by topographic maps and cadastral vector data. The analysis was conducted by delineating the built-up areas from the various optical satellite data, applying a fuzzy-rule-based composition of anisotropic textural measures and interactive thresholding. The resulting datasets were used to analyse urban growth and changes in built-up density per district, qualitatively as well as quantitatively, using a geographic information system. The built-up area increased by 87 % between 1989 and 2007. Built-up density has increased in all areas, but particularly in the northern and southern suburban districts, also reflecting the natural barrier of surrounding mountain ranges. Based on long-term population figures, geometric population growth was assumed. This hypothesis was used together with census data for 1994 and 2004 to estimate population figures for 1989 and 2007, resulting in overall growth of about 240%. By joining population figures to district boundaries, the spatial patterns of population distribution and growth were examined. Further, urban built-up growth and population changes over time were brought into relation in order to investigate changes in population density per built-up area. Population densities increased in all districts, with the greatest density change in the peripheral areas towards the North. The results reflect the pressure on the city’s infrastructure and natural resources and could contribute to sustainable urban planning in the city of Sana’a.

  16. Human population growth offsets climate-driven increase in woody vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Martin Stefan; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Peñuelas, Josep

    2017-01-01

    The rapidly growing human population in sub-Saharan Africa generates increasing demand for agricultural land and forest products, which presumably leads to deforestation. Conversely, a greening of African drylands has been reported, but this has been difficult to associate with changes in woody...... an increase in woody cover largely in drylands, and 11% had a decrease (2,150,000 km2), mostly in humid zones. Increases in woody cover were associated with low population growth, and were driven by increases in CO2 in the humid zones and by increases in precipitation in drylands, whereas decreases in woody...... cover were associated with high population growth. The spatially distinct pattern of these opposing trends reflects, first, the natural response of vegetation to precipitation and atmospheric CO2, and second, deforestation in humid areas, minor in size but important for ecosystem services...

  17. Feeding the world's increasing population while limiting climate change impacts; decoupling agriculture' s N2O and CH4 emissions from population growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, C.L.; Meerburg, B.G.; Schils, R.L.M.; Verhagen, J.; Kuikman, P.J.

    2010-01-01

    The global demand for agricultural products, including food, is rapidly increasing due to population growth and shifts in consumption patterns. The required increase in agricultural production is predominantly to be achieved in countries with relatively low agricultural production levels at present.

  18. Poverty, population growth, and youth violence in DRC's cities ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-04-28

    Apr 28, 2016 ... Poverty, population growth, and youth violence in DRC's cities ... Learn more about what drives DRC's urban violence and how it is linked to poverty ... ​Youth violence and the shift of land disputes from rural communities into ...

  19. Is There Hidden Potential for Rural Population Growth in Sweden?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niedomysl, Thomas; Amcoff, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Rural depopulation is a concern in many countries, and various policy initiatives have been taken to combat such trends. This article examines whether hidden potential for rural population growth can be found in Sweden. If such potential exists, it implies that the development prospects for many rural areas are not as unpromising as they may seem…

  20. The Vatican & Population Growth Control: Why an American Confrontation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumford, Stephen D.

    1983-01-01

    The Vatican, because of its position on population growth, threatens the security of all nations. Catholic countries with right-wing dictatorships cannot confront the Vatican on family planning and survive. U.S. Catholics must confront the Vatican on this issue. American lay Catholics must break the American church away from the Vatican control.…

  1. 525 Population Growth, Hysteresis and Development Outcomes in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    technique of analysis is the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound test for long-run ..... Where; y is the actual income; λ is the adjustment factor and gy is output per ... income per capita if population growth leaves the ratio of workers to total ..... 0.00 and 0.01 probability values are not normally distributed around the.

  2. Optimal growth entails risky localization in population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gueudré, Thomas; Martin, David G.

    2018-03-01

    Essential to each other, growth and exploration are jointly observed in alive and inanimate entities, such as animals, cells or goods. But how the environment's structural and temporal properties weights in this balance remains elusive. We analyze a model of stochastic growth with time correlations and diffusive dynamics that sheds light on the way populations grow and spread over general networks. This model suggests natural explanations of empirical facts in econo-physics or ecology, such as the risk-return trade-off and the Zipf law. We conclude that optimal growth leads to a localized population distribution, but such risky position can be mitigated through the space geometry. These results have broad applicability and are subsequently illustrated over an empirical study of financial data.

  3. Population and prehistory I: Food-dependent population growth in constant environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Charlotte T; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    2008-06-01

    We present a demographic model that describes the feedbacks between food supply, human mortality and fertility rates, and labor availability in expanding populations, where arable land area is not limiting. This model provides a quantitative framework to describe how environment, technology, and culture interact to influence the fates of preindustrial agricultural populations. We present equilibrium conditions and derive approximations for the equilibrium population growth rate, food availability, and other food-dependent measures of population well-being. We examine how the approximations respond to environmental changes and to human choices, and find that the impact of environmental quality depends upon whether it manifests through agricultural yield or maximum (food-independent) survival rates. Human choices can complement or offset environmental effects: greater labor investments increase both population growth and well-being, and therefore can counteract lower agricultural yield, while fertility control decreases the growth rate but can increase or decrease well-being. Finally we establish equilibrium stability criteria, and argue that the potential for loss of local stability at low population growth rates could have important consequences for populations that suffer significant environmental or demographic shocks.

  4. Recovering from a bad start: rapid adaptation and tradeoffs to growth below a threshold density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marx Christopher J

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bacterial growth in well-mixed culture is often assumed to be an autonomous process only depending upon the external conditions under control of the investigator. However, increasingly there is awareness that interactions between cells in culture can lead to surprising phenomena such as density-dependence in the initiation of growth. Results Here I report the unexpected discovery of a density threshold for growth of a strain of Methylobacterium extorquens AM1 used to inoculate eight replicate populations that were evolved in methanol. Six of these populations failed to grow to the expected full density during the first couple transfers. Remarkably, the final cell number of six populations crashed to levels 60- to 400-fold smaller than their cohorts. Five of these populations recovered to full density soon after, but one population remained an order of magnitude smaller for over one hundred generations. These variable dynamics appeared to be due to a density threshold for growth that was specific to both this particular ancestral strain and to growth on methanol. When tested at full density, this population had become less fit than its ancestor. Simply increasing the initial dilution 16-fold reversed this result, revealing that this population had more than a 3-fold advantage when tested at this lower density. As this population evolved and ultimately recovered to the same final density range as the other populations this low-density advantage waned. Conclusions These results demonstrate surprisingly strong tradeoffs during adaptation to growth at low absolute densities that manifest over just a 16-fold change in density. Capturing laboratory examples of transitions to and from growth at low density may help us understand the physiological and evolutionary forces that have led to the unusual properties of natural bacteria that have specialized to low-density environments such as the open ocean.

  5. Recovering from a bad start: rapid adaptation and tradeoffs to growth below a threshold density.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marx, Christopher J

    2012-07-04

    Bacterial growth in well-mixed culture is often assumed to be an autonomous process only depending upon the external conditions under control of the investigator. However, increasingly there is awareness that interactions between cells in culture can lead to surprising phenomena such as density-dependence in the initiation of growth. Here I report the unexpected discovery of a density threshold for growth of a strain of Methylobacterium extorquens AM1 used to inoculate eight replicate populations that were evolved in methanol. Six of these populations failed to grow to the expected full density during the first couple transfers. Remarkably, the final cell number of six populations crashed to levels 60- to 400-fold smaller than their cohorts. Five of these populations recovered to full density soon after, but one population remained an order of magnitude smaller for over one hundred generations. These variable dynamics appeared to be due to a density threshold for growth that was specific to both this particular ancestral strain and to growth on methanol. When tested at full density, this population had become less fit than its ancestor. Simply increasing the initial dilution 16-fold reversed this result, revealing that this population had more than a 3-fold advantage when tested at this lower density. As this population evolved and ultimately recovered to the same final density range as the other populations this low-density advantage waned. These results demonstrate surprisingly strong tradeoffs during adaptation to growth at low absolute densities that manifest over just a 16-fold change in density. Capturing laboratory examples of transitions to and from growth at low density may help us understand the physiological and evolutionary forces that have led to the unusual properties of natural bacteria that have specialized to low-density environments such as the open ocean.

  6. Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

    2017-11-14

    Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  7. Habitat-specific population growth of a farmland bird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debora Arlt

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: To assess population persistence of species living in heterogeneous landscapes, the effects of habitat on reproduction and survival have to be investigated. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used a matrix population model to estimate habitat-specific population growth rates for a population of northern wheatears Oenanthe oenanthe breeding in farmland consisting of a mosaic of distinct habitat (land use types. Based on extensive long-term data on reproduction and survival, habitats characterised by tall field layers (spring- and autumn-sown crop fields, ungrazed grasslands displayed negative stochastic population growth rates (log lambda(s: -0.332, -0.429, -0.168, respectively, that were markedly lower than growth rates of habitats characterised by permanently short field layers (pastures grazed by cattle or horses, and farmyards, log lambda(s: -0.056, +0.081, -0.059. Although habitats differed with respect to reproductive performance, differences in habitat-specific population growth were largely due to differences in adult and first-year survival rates, as shown by a life table response experiment (LTRE. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results show that estimation of survival rates is important for realistic assessments of habitat quality. Results also indicate that grazed grasslands and farmyards may act as source habitats, whereas crop fields and ungrazed grasslands with tall field layers may act as sink habitats. We suggest that the strong decline of northern wheatears in Swedish farmland may be linked to the corresponding observed loss of high quality breeding habitat, i.e. grazed semi-natural grasslands.

  8. Crossing Methods and Cultivation Conditions for Rapid Production of Segregating Populations in Three Grain Amaranth Species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stetter, Markus G; Zeitler, Leo; Steinhaus, Adrian; Kroener, Karoline; Biljecki, Michelle; Schmid, Karl J

    2016-01-01

    Grain amaranths (Amaranthus spp.) have been cultivated for thousands of years in Central and South America. Their grains are of high nutritional value, but the low yield needs to be increased by selection of superior genotypes from genetically diverse breeding populations. Amaranths are adapted to harsh conditions and can be cultivated on marginal lands although little is known about their physiology. The development of controlled growing conditions and efficient crossing methods is important for research on and improvement of this ancient crop. Grain amaranth was domesticated in the Americas and is highly self-fertilizing with a large inflorescence consisting of thousands of very small flowers. We evaluated three different crossing methods (open pollination, hot water emasculation and hand emasculation) for their efficiency in amaranth and validated them with genetic markers. We identified cultivation conditions that allow an easy control of flowering time by day length manipulation and achieved flowering times of 4 weeks and generation times of 2 months. All three different crossing methods successfully produced hybrid F1 offspring, but with different success rates. Open pollination had the lowest (10%) and hand emasculation the highest success rate (74%). Hot water emasculation showed an intermediate success rate (26%) with a maximum of 94% success. It is simple to perform and suitable for a more large-scale production of hybrids. We further evaluated 11 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers and found that they were sufficient to validate all crosses of the genotypes used in this study for intra- and interspecific hybridizations. Despite its very small flowers, crosses in amaranth can be carried out efficiently and evaluated with inexpensive SNP markers. Suitable growth conditions strongly reduce the generation time and allow the control of plant height, flowering time, and seed production. In combination, this enables the rapid production of segregating

  9. Low-Temperature and Rapid Growth of Large Single-Crystalline Graphene with Ethane.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao; Lin, Li; Sun, Luzhao; Zhang, Jincan; Rui, Dingran; Li, Jiayu; Wang, Mingzhan; Tan, Congwei; Kang, Ning; Wei, Di; Xu, H Q; Peng, Hailin; Liu, Zhongfan

    2018-01-01

    Future applications of graphene rely highly on the production of large-area high-quality graphene, especially large single-crystalline graphene, due to the reduction of defects caused by grain boundaries. However, current large single-crystalline graphene growing methodologies are suffering from low growth rate and as a result, industrial graphene production is always confronted by high energy consumption, which is primarily caused by high growth temperature and long growth time. Herein, a new growth condition achieved via ethane being the carbon feedstock to achieve low-temperature yet rapid growth of large single-crystalline graphene is reported. Ethane condition gives a growth rate about four times faster than methane, achieving about 420 µm min -1 for the growth of sub-centimeter graphene single crystals at temperature about 1000 °C. In addition, the temperature threshold to obtain graphene using ethane can be reduced to 750 °C, lower than the general growth temperature threshold (about 1000 °C) with methane on copper foil. Meanwhile ethane always keeps higher graphene growth rate than methane under the same growth temperature. This study demonstrates that ethane is indeed a potential carbon source for efficient growth of large single-crystalline graphene, thus paves the way for graphene in high-end electronical and optoelectronical applications. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  10. Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armit, Ian; Swindles, Graeme T; Becker, Katharina; Plunkett, Gill; Blaauw, Maarten

    2014-12-02

    The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological (14)C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

  11. Modeling the pre-industrial roots of modern super-exponential population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stutz, Aaron Jonas

    2014-01-01

    To Malthus, rapid human population growth-so evident in 18th Century Europe-was obviously unsustainable. In his Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus cogently argued that environmental and socioeconomic constraints on population rise were inevitable. Yet, he penned his essay on the eve of the global census size reaching one billion, as nearly two centuries of super-exponential increase were taking off. Introducing a novel extension of J. E. Cohen's hallmark coupled difference equation model of human population dynamics and carrying capacity, this article examines just how elastic population growth limits may be in response to demographic change. The revised model involves a simple formalization of how consumption costs influence carrying capacity elasticity over time. Recognizing that complex social resource-extraction networks support ongoing consumption-based investment in family formation and intergenerational resource transfers, it is important to consider how consumption has impacted the human environment and demography--especially as global population has become very large. Sensitivity analysis of the consumption-cost model's fit to historical population estimates, modern census data, and 21st Century demographic projections supports a critical conclusion. The recent population explosion was systemically determined by long-term, distinctly pre-industrial cultural evolution. It is suggested that modern globalizing transitions in technology, susceptibility to infectious disease, information flows and accumulation, and economic complexity were endogenous products of much earlier biocultural evolution of family formation's embeddedness in larger, hierarchically self-organizing cultural systems, which could potentially support high population elasticity of carrying capacity. Modern super-exponential population growth cannot be considered separately from long-term change in the multi-scalar political economy that connects family formation and

  12. Population growth to put pressure on some food supplies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    Continued high population growth in developing countries is likely to lead to intense pressure to produce more rice, according to estimates from the Manila-based International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). Ms. Mercedita Sombilla, a research scientist with IRRI, said that the projected increase in Asia's population will be the major force in accelerating demand for rice. According to various issues of the ESCAP Population Data Sheet, the population of the region will have increased from 3.3 billion in 1995 to almost 4.6 billion in 2020. The greatest growth in demand is expected to come from the lower-income countries of Asia, such as Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Philippines, and Viet Nam, she said. However, in terms of overall food supplies, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates that food supplies will be sufficient. "Expecting reasonably strong productivity growth to be sustainable, no global food crisis seems likely to occur" between now and 2020, the organization stated in its report entitled "The World in 2020: Towards a New Global Age". full text

  13. Are rapid population estimates accurate? A field trial of two different assessment methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grais, Rebecca F; Coulombier, Denis; Ampuero, Julia; Lucas, Marcelino E S; Barretto, Avertino T; Jacquier, Guy; Diaz, Francisco; Balandine, Serge; Mahoudeau, Claude; Brown, Vincent

    2006-09-01

    Emergencies resulting in large-scale displacement often lead to populations resettling in areas where basic health services and sanitation are unavailable. To plan relief-related activities quickly, rapid population size estimates are needed. The currently recommended Quadrat method estimates total population by extrapolating the average population size living in square blocks of known area to the total site surface. An alternative approach, the T-Square, provides a population estimate based on analysis of the spatial distribution of housing units taken throughout a site. We field tested both methods and validated the results against a census in Esturro Bairro, Beira, Mozambique. Compared to the census (population: 9,479), the T-Square yielded a better population estimate (9,523) than the Quadrat method (7,681; 95% confidence interval: 6,160-9,201), but was more difficult for field survey teams to implement. Although applicable only to similar sites, several general conclusions can be drawn for emergency planning.

  14. Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Jose Struchiner

    Full Text Available In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83. Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue.

  15. A comparison of test statistics for the recovery of rapid growth-based enumeration tests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Heuvel, Edwin R.; IJzerman-Boon, Pieta C.

    This paper considers five test statistics for comparing the recovery of a rapid growth-based enumeration test with respect to the compendial microbiological method using a specific nonserial dilution experiment. The finite sample distributions of these test statistics are unknown, because they are

  16. Governing Rapid Growth in Asia: State-led Development in Historical Perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T-W. Ngo (Tak-Wing)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractRapid growth in Asia has often been explained in terms of effective policies pursued by a “developmental state”. In particular, countries in East Asia are said to be characterized by the presence of a strong state with technocratic capacity and social embeddedness. This inaugural address

  17. Tyrosine requirement during the rapid catch-up growth phase of recovery from severe childhood undernutrition

    Science.gov (United States)

    The requirement for aromatic amino acids, during the rapid catch-up in weight phase of recovery from severe childhood under nutrition (SCU) is not clearly established. As a first step, the present study aimed to estimate the tyrosine requirement of children with SCU during the catch-up growth phase ...

  18. Analysis of Urban Growth in Edwardsville Illinois Using Remote Sensing and Population Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onuoha, Hilda U.

    Rapid urbanization is one of the many critical, global issues. This very significant social and economic phenomenon has brought about much debate in the past twenty years and has become a very important policy issue. Understanding its dynamics and patterns is important to develop appropriate policies and make more informed planning decisions. Many dimensions to the urban land growth have been identified in related literature including drivers, relationship with other factors like population, impacts, and methods of measurement. In this study, urban growth in the Edwardsville area (composed of Edwardsville and Glen Carbon, Illinois) is analyzed spatio-temporally using remote sensing and population change from 1990 to 2015. The objectives of this study are (a) identifying the major land use changes in the Edwardsville area from 1990 to 2015, (b) analyzing the rate of urban growth and its relationship to population change in the area from 1990 to 2015, (c) identifying the general pattern and direction of urban growth in the study area. Using multi-temporal satellite images to classify and derive changes in land cover classes during the study period, results showed that the land cover classes with major changes are the urban/built-up land and agricultural/grassland, with a steady increase in the former and steady decrease in the later. Results also show the highest rate of increase in urban land was between 2000 and 2010. In comparison to population, the both show increase over the study years but urban land shows a higher rate of increase indicating dispersion. To analyze urban growth pattern in the area, the study area was divided into three zones: NE, SE, and W. The SE zone showed the highest amount of the growth and from the results, the infill type of growth was inferred.

  19. Adapting to Population Growth: The Evolutionary Alternative to Malthus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axel Kristinsson

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A long-standing debate on the dynamics of population growth in human history has become polarized between a Malthusian stance and a Boserupian one. The former tends to view population growth as limited by carrying capacity, dependent on environment and technology, whereas the latter sees population growth itself as a major inducement to social, economic and technological developments. In this paper the authors experiment with approaching this debate by using recent developments in evolutionary theory. According to these, evolutionary principles, as expounded by Charles Darwin and subsequent evolutionary scientists, apply not only to biological evolution but also to social or cultural evolution. Here, the role of genes is taken over by culture and, since culture is much more pliable than our DNA, evolution speeds up. As the only organisms on Earth whose evolution relies as heavily on culture as on genes, humans have become extremely adaptable. Their hyper-adaptability suggest that humans, through their cultural evolution, have managed increasingly to adapt to their own growing population, thus succeeding in accommodating ever-growing numbers. This hypothesis fits the Boserupian approach to population very well but less so the Malthusian one, perhaps indicating a gradual shift from a Malthusian regime to a Boserupian one in human history. The hypothesis is discussed and examined through four case studies: The beginning of farming around Göbekli Tepe in southeast Turkey, the productive farming systems of Tiwanaku in South America, the population crisis of late medieval and early modern Iceland, and the ‘collapse’ of Rapa Nui (Easter Island.

  20. Genomic growth curves of an outbred pig population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabyano Fonseca e Silva

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In the current post-genomic era, the genetic basis of pig growth can be understood by assessing SNP marker effects and genomic breeding values (GEBV based on estimates of these growth curve parameters as phenotypes. Although various statistical methods, such as random regression (RR-BLUP and Bayesian LASSO (BL, have been applied to genomic selection (GS, none of these has yet been used in a growth curve approach. In this work, we compared the accuracies of RR-BLUP and BL using empirical weight-age data from an outbred F2 (Brazilian Piau X commercial population. The phenotypes were determined by parameter estimates using a nonlinear logistic regression model and the halothane gene was considered as a marker for evaluating the assumptions of the GS methods in relation to the genetic variation explained by each locus. BL yielded more accurate values for all of the phenotypes evaluated and was used to estimate SNP effects and GEBV vectors. The latter allowed the construction of genomic growth curves, which showed substantial genetic discrimination among animals in the final growth phase. The SNP effect estimates allowed identification of the most relevant markers for each phenotype, the positions of which were coincident with reported QTL regions for growth traits.

  1. The performance studies of DKDP crystals grown by a rapid horizontal growth method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Xiaoyi; Qi, Hongji; Wang, Bin; Wang, Hu; Chen, Duanyang; Shao, Jianda

    2018-04-01

    A deuterated potassium dihydrogen phosphate (DKDP) crystal with about 70% deuterium level was grown by a rapid horizontal growth method with independent design equipment, which includes a continuous filtration system. The cooling program during crystal growth was designed according to a self-developed software to catch the size of growing crystal in real time. The crystal structure, optical performance and laser induced damage threshold (LIDT) of this DKDP crystal were investigated in this paper. The deuterium concentration of the crystal was confirmed by the neutron diffraction technique, which was effective and available in determining a complete range of deuteration level. The dielectric property was measured to evaluate the perfection of the lattice. The transmittance and LIDT were carried out further to evaluate the optical and functional properties of this DKDP crystal grown in the rapid horizontal growth technique. All of the detailed characterization for DKDP figured out that the 70% deuterated KDP crystal grown in this way had relatively good qualities.

  2. Population growth, accessibility spillovers and persistent borders: Historical growth in West-European municipalities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris; Koomen, Eric

    2017-06-01

    Lack of cross-border transport supply has repeatedly been blamed for the fact that national borders limit spatial interaction and, consequently, the growth of border regions. This study applies an accessibility approach to investigate for most municipalities in ten countries in mainland West Europe if foreign transport supply is lagging behind, and if population growth in these municipalities has been affected by the limits that national borders have imposed on market access. To do so, data describing historical population changes and road networks between 1961 and 2011 have been used. The results show that in the study area, cross-border transport accessibility was not at a disadvantage in 1961 and has since then grown even more than domestic accessibility. However, municipal population growth has depended almost exclusively on domestic market access. Processes of economic international integration in the study area are found to coincide with the growth of cross-border accessibility, but do not have a clear coincidence with the effects of cross-border accessibility on population growth.

  3. Rapid Point-of-Care Diagnostic Test for Syphilis in High-Risk Populations, Manaus, Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Sabid?, Meritxell; Benzaken, Adele S.; de Andrade Rodrigues, ?nio Jos?; Mayaud, Philippe

    2009-01-01

    : We assessed the acceptability and operational suitability of a rapid point-of-care syphilis test and identified barriers to testing among high-risk groups and healthcare professionals in a sexually transmitted infections clinic in Manaus, Brazil. Use of this test could considerably alleviate the impact of syphilis in hard-to-reach populations in the Amazon region of Brazil.

  4. Is faster economic growth compatible with reductions in carbon emissions? The role of diminished population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casey, Gregory; Galor, Oded

    2017-01-01

    We provide evidence that lower fertility can simultaneously increase income per capita and lower carbon emissions, eliminating a trade-off central to most policies aimed at slowing global climate change. We estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions, accounting for the fact that changes in fertility patterns affect carbon emissions through three channels: total population, the age structure of the population, and economic output. Our analysis proceeds in two steps. First, we estimate the elasticity of carbon emissions with respect to population and income per capita in an unbalanced yearly panel of cross-country data from 1950-2010. We demonstrate that the elasticity with respect to population is nearly seven times larger than the elasticity with respect to income per capita and that this difference is statistically significant. Thus, the regression results imply that 1% slower population growth could be accompanied by an increase in income per capita of nearly 7% while still lowering carbon emissions. In the second part of our analysis, we use a recently constructed economic-demographic model of Nigeria to estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions, accounting for the impacts of fertility on population growth, population age structure, and income per capita. We find that by 2100 C.E. moving from the medium to the low variant of the UN fertility projection leads to 35% lower yearly emissions and 15% higher income per capita. These results suggest that population policies could be part of the approach to combating global climate change.

  5. The Rapid Urban Growth Triad: A New Conceptual Framework for Examining the Urban Transition in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyle Farrell

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Although the urban transition is a universal event that unfolds in all countries, the determinants, patterns, and outcomes do not necessarily follow a uniform process. With the urban transition being basically completed in developed countries around the turn of the 21st century, the growth of cities today is almost entirely confined to developing countries. Still, much of our conceptual understanding of this process is derived from earlier accounts, with definitions rooted in a historical context. This has resulted in common misconceptions such as a tendency to view the growth of cities primarily as an outcome of rural to urban migration, neglecting the growing contributions of urban natural population increase and reclassification of rural areas. A tendency to treat the components of urban growth in isolation has created a rift within the urban studies discourse, preventing any real theorization of their combined impacts and the interplay among them. Applying a systems thinking approach, this paper introduces a multidisciplinary framework for conceptualizing rapid urban growth in developing countries. The framework offers explanatory power to previously neglected components of urban growth and serves as a diagnostic for examining the urban transition—ultimately revealing new policy levers for managing it in a sustainable way.

  6. Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lumi, N.; Mankin, R. [Institute of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Tallinn University, 25 Narva Road, 10120 Tallinn (Estonia)

    2014-11-12

    The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

  7. The Great Transformations of Tibet and Xinjiang: a comparative analysis of rapid labour transitions in times of rapid growth in two contested minority regions of China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.M. Fischer (Andrew Martín)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractRapid growth since the mid-1990s in the Tibetan and Uyghur areas in Western China has been associated with the rapid transition of the local (mostly Tibetan and Uyghur) labour forces out of the primary sector (mostly farming and herding) and into the tertiary sector (services). The TAR,

  8. Rapid evolution in insect pests: the importance of space and time in population genomics studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pélissié, Benjamin; Crossley, Michael S; Cohen, Zachary Paul; Schoville, Sean D

    2018-04-01

    Pest species in agroecosystems often exhibit patterns of rapid evolution to environmental and human-imposed selection pressures. Although the role of adaptive processes is well accepted, few insect pests have been studied in detail and most research has focused on selection at insecticide resistance candidate genes. Emerging genomic datasets provide opportunities to detect and quantify selection in insect pest populations, and address long-standing questions about mechanisms underlying rapid evolutionary change. We examine the strengths of recent studies that stratify population samples both in space (along environmental gradients and comparing ancestral vs. derived populations) and in time (using chronological sampling, museum specimens and comparative phylogenomics), resulting in critical insights on evolutionary processes, and providing new directions for studying pests in agroecosystems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vörösmarty, C J; Green, P; Salisbury, J; Lammers, R B

    2000-07-14

    The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.

  10. Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radeloff, Volker C; Helmers, David P; Kramer, H Anu; Mockrin, Miranda H; Alexandre, Patricia M; Bar-Massada, Avi; Butsic, Van; Hawbaker, Todd J; Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Syphard, Alexandra D; Stewart, Susan I

    2018-03-27

    The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the area where houses and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle, and where wildfire problems are most pronounced. Here we report that the WUI in the United States grew rapidly from 1990 to 2010 in terms of both number of new houses (from 30.8 to 43.4 million; 41% growth) and land area (from 581,000 to 770,000 km 2 ; 33% growth), making it the fastest-growing land use type in the conterminous United States. The vast majority of new WUI areas were the result of new housing (97%), not related to an increase in wildland vegetation. Within the perimeter of recent wildfires (1990-2015), there were 286,000 houses in 2010, compared with 177,000 in 1990. Furthermore, WUI growth often results in more wildfire ignitions, putting more lives and houses at risk. Wildfire problems will not abate if recent housing growth trends continue.

  11. A phenomenological theory of world population growth and global problems

    CERN Document Server

    Kapitza, Sergei P

    1996-01-01

    Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant one. To describe this process in its past and project it into the future a mathematical model is worked out. It treats the world population as an entity, seen as an open and evolv The approach is phenomenological and growth over very many generations is assumed to be selfsimilar and described by scaling. In terms of kinetics, the growth rate is proportional to the square of the total number of people and the nonlinear hyperbol of all mechanisms that contribute to our development in a collective interactive process. The model gives an estimate of the beginning of human evolution c.a. 4.4 million years ago and of the total number of people who ever lived c.a. 100 billion. In the scope of the model large scale cycles defined by history and anthropology are shown to be uniformly spaced in time on a logarithmic scale, expressing and inherent periodicity. As we approach the present, this progression of cycles is now termo transition. This is a s...

  12. Impacts of invasive fish removal through angling on population characteristics and juvenile growth rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangelista, Charlotte; Britton, Robert J; Cucherousset, Julien

    2015-06-01

    Exploitation can modify the characteristics of fish populations through the selective harvesting of individuals, with this potentially leading to rapid ecological and evolutionary changes. Despite the well-known effects of invasive fishes on aquatic ecosystems generally, the potential effects of their selective removal through angling, a strategy commonly used to manage invasive fish, are poorly understood. The aim of this field-based study was to use the North American pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus as the model species to investigate the consequences of selective removal on their population characteristics and juvenile growth rates across 10 populations in artificial lakes in southern France. We found that the maximal individual mass in populations decreased as removal pressure through angling increased, whereas we did not observed any changes in the maximal individual length in populations as removal pressure increased. Total population abundance did not decrease as removal pressure increased; instead, here was a U-shaped relationship between removal pressure and the abundance of medium-bodied individuals. In addition, population biomass had a U-shaped curve response to removal pressure, implying that invasive fish populations can modulate their characteristics to compensate for the negative effects of selective removals. In addition, individual lengths at age 2 and juvenile growth rates decreased as removal pressure through angling increased, suggesting a shift toward an earlier size at maturity and an overall slower growing phenotype. Therefore, these outputs challenge the efficiency of selective management methods, suggesting the use of more proactive strategies to control invasive populations, and the need to investigate the potential ecological and evolutionary repercussions of nonrandom removal.

  13. Rapid growth, early maturation and short generation time in African annual fishes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Blažek, Radim; Polačik, Matej; Reichard, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 4, č. 24 (2013), s. 24 ISSN 2041-9139 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP506/11/0112 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : extreme life history * annual fish * explosive growth * rapid maturation * generation time * killifish * diapause * vertebrate * reaction norm * Savanna Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 3.104, year: 2013 http://www.evodevojournal.com/content/4/1/24

  14. Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volker C. Radeloff; David P. Helmers; H. Anu Kramer; Miranda H. Mockrin; Patricia M. Alexandre; Avi Bar-Massada; Van Butsic; Todd J. Hawbaker; Sebastián Martinuzzi; Alexandra D. Syphard; Susan I. Stewart

    2018-01-01

    The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the area where houses and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle, and where wildfire problems are most pronounced. Here we report that the WUI in the United States grew rapidly from 1990 to 2010 in terms of both number of new houses (from 30.8 to 43.4 million; 41% growth) and land area (from 581,000 to 770,000 km2...

  15. Oxidation phase growth diagram of vanadium oxides film fabricated by rapid thermal annealing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tamura KOZO; Zheng-cao LI; Yu-quan WANG; Jie NI; Yin HU; Zheng-jun ZHANG

    2009-01-01

    Thermal evaporation deposited vanadium oxide films were annealed in air by rapid thermal annealing (RTP). By adjusting the annealing temperature and time, a series of vanadium oxide films with various oxidation phases and surface morphologies were fabricated, and an oxidation phase growth diagram was established. It was observed that different oxidation phases appear at a limited and continuous annealing condition range, and the morphologic changes are related to the oxidation process.

  16. Rapid growth and childhood obesity are strongly associated with lysoPC(14:0).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rzehak, Peter; Hellmuth, Christian; Uhl, Olaf; Kirchberg, Franca F; Peissner, Wolfgang; Harder, Ulrike; Grote, Veit; Weber, Martina; Xhonneux, Annick; Langhendries, Jean-Paul; Ferre, Natalia; Closa-Monasterolo, Ricardo; Verduci, Elvira; Riva, Enrica; Socha, Piotr; Gruszfeld, Dariusz; Koletzko, Berthold

    2014-01-01

    Despite the growing interest in the early-origins-of-later-disease hypothesis, little is known about the metabolic underpinnings linking infant weight gain and childhood obesity. To discover biomarkers reflective of weight change in the first 6 months and overweight/obesity at age 6 years via a targeted metabolomics approach. This analysis comprised 726 infants from a European multicenter randomized trial (Childhood Obesity Programme, CHOP) for whom plasma blood samples at age 6 months and anthropometric data up to the age of 6 years were available. 'Rapid growth' was defined as a positive difference in weight within the first 6 months of life standardized to WHO growth standards. Weight change was regressed on each of 168 metabolites (acylcarnitines, lysophosphatidylcholines, sphingomyelins, and amino acids). Metabolites significant after Bonferroni's correction were tested as predictors of later overweight/obesity. Among the overall 19 significant metabolites, 4 were associated with rapid growth and 15 were associated with a less-than-ideal weight change. After adjusting for feeding group, only the lysophosphatidylcholine LPCaC14:0 remained significantly associated with rapid weight gain (β = 0.18). Only LPCaC14:0 at age 6 months was predictive of overweight/obesity at age 6 years (OR 1.33; 95% CI 1.04-1.69). LPCa14:0 is strongly related to rapid growth in infancy and childhood overweight/obesity. This suggests that LPCaC14:0 levels may represent a metabolically programmed effect of infant weight gain on the later obesity risk. However, these results require confirmation by independent cohorts. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  17. An Inquiry into the Rapid Growth of the Garment Industry in Bangladesh

    OpenAIRE

    MOTTALEB, Khondoker Abdul; SONOBE, Tetsushi

    2011-01-01

    The export-oriented garment industry in Bangladesh has grown rapidly for the last three decades and now ranks among the largest garment exporters in the world. While its early success is attributed to the initial technology transfer from South Korea, such a one-time infusion of knowledge alone is insufficient to explain the sustained growth for three decades. This paper uses primary data collected from knitwear manufacturers and garment traders to explore the process of the continuous learnin...

  18. Detecting crop population growth using chlorophyll fluorescence imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Heng; Qian, Xiangjie; Zhang, Lan; Xu, Sailong; Li, Haifeng; Xia, Xiaojian; Dai, Liankui; Xu, Liang; Yu, Jingquan; Liu, Xu

    2017-12-10

    For both field and greenhouse crops, it is challenging to evaluate their growth information on a large area over a long time. In this work, we developed a chlorophyll fluorescence imaging-based system for crop population growth information detection. Modular design was used to make the system provide high-intensity uniform illumination. This system can perform modulated chlorophyll fluorescence induction kinetics measurement and chlorophyll fluorescence parameter imaging over a large area of up to 45  cm×34  cm. The system can provide different lighting intensity by modulating the duty cycle of its control signal. Results of continuous monitoring of cucumbers in nitrogen deficiency show the system can reduce the judge error of crop physiological status and improve monitoring efficiency. Meanwhile, the system is promising in high throughput application scenarios.

  19. Anthropometric growth study of the ear in a Chinese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shichun; Li, Dianguo; Liu, Zhenzhong; Wang, Yibiao; Liu, Lei; Jiang, Duyin; Pan, Bo

    2018-04-01

    A large number of anthropometric studies of the auricle have been reported in different nations, but little data were available in the Chinese population. The aim of this study was to analyze growth changes in the ear by measuring the width and length of ears in a Chinese population. A total of 480 participants were enrolled and classified into 1-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 9-, 12-, 14-, and 18-year groups (half were boys and half were girls in each group). Ear length, ear width, body weight, and body length were measured and recorded; ear index was calculated according to ear length and ear width. The growth of auricle and differences between genders were analyzed. Growth of ear in relation to body height and weight and the degree of emphasis on the length and width of the auricle were also analyzed. Ear length and width increased with age. Ear length achieved its mature size in both 14-year-old males and females. Ear width reached its mature size in males at 7 years and in females at 5 years. Different trends of ear index were shown between males and females. People in this population paid more attention to the length than the width of the auricle. The data indicated that ear development followed increase in age. There were gender and ethnic difference in the development of ear. These results may have potential implications for the diagnosis of congenital malformations, syndromes, and planning of ear reconstruction surgery. Copyright © 2017 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Project Mahathir: ‘Extraordinary’ Population Growth in Sabah

    OpenAIRE

    Frank, Sina

    2006-01-01

    The Malaysian state of Sabah faced an “extraordinary” population growth during the last decades. Illegal immigrants are said to have been issued Malaysian Identity Cards based on false statutory declarations. The so-called “Project Mahathir” changed Sabah’s ethnic make-up as well as the participation in elections. Politicians are said to have made use of “Phantom voters” in order to decide Sabah elections. Finally, with the help of a petition Sabah-based NGO’s demand an investi...

  1. Social policy and population growth in South-East Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    You Poh Seng Rao, B; Shantakumar, G

    1974-01-01

    Social and population policies are considered for the 10 countries comprising Southeast Asia--Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, North Vietnam, and South Vietnam. All but Singapore have high fertility rates and Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos and the two Vietnams have high mortality rates also. Government expenditures for education and social security systems is expanding throughout the region and it is hoped that their continued growth will contribute substantially to the effective implementation of population policies. Population policies in the 5 countries which have them are discussed. These are Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. It is noted, however, that declaration of policy is but the first step. Strategies and programs differ from one country to the next and depend very much on the stage of development, level of literacy, degree of urbanization, and other factors. Family planning activities generally are endogenous to urban social systems but exogenous to rural social systems. Thus, the rural elite has a large role to play in making population policies an integral part of rural life. The possibility is considered of developing workable incentive packages integrating health, education, and social security benefits with suitable emphasis on fertility reduction.

  2. Population growth of Yellowstone grizzly bears: Uncertainty and future monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, R.B.; White, Gary C.; Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of the US Rocky Mountains have recently increased in numbers, but remain vulnerable due to isolation from other populations and predicted reductions in favored food resources. Harris et al. (2006) projected how this population might fare in the future under alternative survival rates, and in doing so estimated the rate of population growth, 1983–2002. We address issues that remain from that earlier work: (1) the degree of uncertainty surrounding our estimates of the rate of population change (λ); (2) the effect of correlation among demographic parameters on these estimates; and (3) how a future monitoring system using counts of females accompanied by cubs might usefully differentiate between short-term, expected, and inconsequential fluctuations versus a true change in system state. We used Monte Carlo re-sampling of beta distributions derived from the demographic parameters used by Harris et al. (2006) to derive distributions of λ during 1983–2002 given our sampling uncertainty. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were 0.972–1.096 (assuming females with unresolved fates died) and 1.008–1.115 (with unresolved females censored at last contact). We used well-supported models of Haroldson et al. (2006) and Schwartz et al. (2006a,b,c) to assess the strength of correlations among demographic processes and the effect of omitting them in projection models. Incorporating correlations among demographic parameters yielded point estimates of λ that were nearly identical to those from the earlier model that omitted correlations, but yielded wider confidence intervals surrounding λ. Finally, we suggest that fitting linear and quadratic curves to the trend suggested by the estimated number of females with cubs in the ecosystem, and using AICc model weights to infer population sizes and λ provides an objective means to monitoring approximate population trajectories in addition to demographic

  3. Diagnostic evaluation of rapid tests for scrub typhus in the Indian population is needed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shivalli, Siddharudha

    2016-05-12

    Owing to frequent outbreaks witnessed in different parts of the country in the recent past, scrub typhus is being described as a re-emerging infectious disease in India. Differentiating scrub typhus from other endemic diseases like malaria, leptospirosis, dengue fever, typhoid, etc. is difficult due to overlapping clinical features and a lower positivity for eschars in Asian populations. Hence, the diagnosis heavily relies on laboratory tests. Costs and the need of technical expertise limit the wide use of indirect immunoperoxidase or immunofluorescence assays, ELISA and PCR. The Weil-Felix test is the most commonly used and least expensive serological test, but lacks both sensitivity and specificity. Hence, the diagnosis of scrub typhus is often delayed or overlooked. With due consideration of the cost, rapidity, single test result and simplicity of interpretation, rapid diagnostic tests have come into vogue. However, evaluation of rapid diagnostic tests for scrub typhus in the Indian population is needed to justify or discourage their use. Research studies are needed to find the most suitable test in terms of the rapidity of the result, simplicity of the procedure, ease of interpretation and cost to be used in the Indian populace.

  4. The relationship between population ageing and the economic growth in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brendan, Lo Rick; Sek, Siok Kun

    2017-08-01

    Asia has witnessed robust economic growth since the 1960s. Today, emerging markets in Asia have managed to maintain rapid growth even when the world's main economies suffer from debt and banking crises. However, declining total fertility rate, increasing life expectancy, continuous change of birth and death patterns, and increasing share of old age population in the age distribution in Asia exert significant pressure on its economies. This paper analyses the relationship between population ageing and economic growth using 2 different panels of countries; one Asian and another the from the oldest countries worldwide between 1970 and 2014. The analysis is based on the Auto Regression Distributed Lag models. The MG (Mean Group) and PMG (Pooled Mean Group) estimations are applied in this analysis. The Hausman Test is conducted to decide between the MG and PMG estimators. We find that ageing will negatively affect the economy in the long run. The growing number of youths will initially have a negative effect on the economy but would eventually lead to a positive growth in the future. The old age dependency ratio has yet to have affect the Asian economy but is expected eventually to impose a negative effect as seen in the oldest nations of the world.

  5. Rapid solidification growth mode transitions in Al-Si alloys by dynamic transmission electron microscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roehling, John D.; Coughlin, Daniel R.; Gibbs, John W.; Baldwin, J. Kevin; Mertens, James C.E.; Campbell, Geoffrey H.; Clarke, Amy J.; McKeown, Joseph T.

    2017-01-01

    In situ dynamic transmission electron microscope (DTEM) imaging of Al-Si thin-film alloys was performed to investigate rapid solidification behavior. Solidification of alloys with compositions from 1 to 15 atomic percent Si was imaged during pulsed laser melting and subsequent solidification. Solely α-Al solidification was observed in Al-1Si and Al-3Si alloys, and solely kinetically modified eutectic growth was observed in Al-6Si and Al-9Si alloys. A transition in the solidification mode in eutectic and hypereutectic alloys (Al-12Si and Al-15Si) from nucleated α-Al dendrites at lower solidification velocities to planar eutectic growth at higher solidification velocities was observed, departing from trends previously seen in laser-track melting experiments. Comparisons of the growth modes and corresponding velocities are compared with previous solidification models, and implications regarding the models are discussed.

  6. Electromagnetic induction heating for single crystal graphene growth: morphology control by rapid heating and quenching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chaoxing; Li, Fushan; Chen, Wei; Veeramalai, Chandrasekar Perumal; Ooi, Poh Choon; Guo, Tailiang

    2015-03-01

    The direct observation of single crystal graphene growth and its shape evolution is of fundamental importance to the understanding of graphene growth physicochemical mechanisms and the achievement of wafer-scale single crystalline graphene. Here we demonstrate the controlled formation of single crystal graphene with varying shapes, and directly observe the shape evolution of single crystal graphene by developing a localized-heating and rapid-quenching chemical vapor deposition (CVD) system based on electromagnetic induction heating. Importantly, rational control of circular, hexagonal, and dendritic single crystalline graphene domains can be readily obtained for the first time by changing the growth condition. Systematic studies suggest that the graphene nucleation only occurs during the initial stage, while the domain density is independent of the growth temperatures due to the surface-limiting effect. In addition, the direct observation of graphene domain shape evolution is employed for the identification of competing growth mechanisms including diffusion-limited, attachment-limited, and detachment-limited processes. Our study not only provides a novel method for morphology-controlled graphene synthesis, but also offers fundamental insights into the kinetics of single crystal graphene growth.

  7. Rapid structural and compositional change in an old-growth subtropical forest: using plant traits to identify probable drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malizia, Agustina; Easdale, Tomás A; Grau, H Ricardo

    2013-01-01

    Recent studies have shown directional changes in old-growth tropical forests, but changes are complex and diverse, and their drivers unclear. Here, we report rapid net structural and compositional changes in an old-growth subtropical forest and we assess the functional nature of these changes to test hypothetical drivers including recovery from past disturbances, reduction in ungulate browsing, CO2 fertilization, and increases in rainfall and temperature. The study relies on 15 years of demographic monitoring within 8 ha of subtropical montane forest in Argentina. Between 1992 and 2007, stem density markedly increased by 50% (12 stems ha(-1) y(-1)) and basal area by 6% (0.13 m(2) ha(-1) y(-1)). Increased stem density resulted from enhanced recruitment of understory treelets (Piper tucumanum, Eugenia uniflora, Allophylus edulis) into small size classes. Among 27 common tree species, net population growth was negatively correlated with maximum tree size and longevity, and positively correlated with leaf size and leaf nutrient content, especially so when initial population size was controlled for. Changes were inconsistent with predictions derived from past disturbances (no increase in shade-tolerant or long-lived late-succesional species), rainfall or temperature increase (no increase in evergreen or deciduous species, respectively). However, the increase in nutrient-rich soft-leaved species was consistent with exclusion of large herbivores two decades before monitoring started; and CO2 fertilization could help explain the disproportionate increase in small stems. Reductions in populations of large vertebrates have been observed in many otherwise undisturbed tropical forests, and our results suggest they can have important structural and functional repercussions in these forests.

  8. Estimated impact of global population growth on future wilderness extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumont, E.

    2012-06-01

    Wilderness areas in the world are threatened by the environmental impacts of the growing global human population. This study estimates the impact of birth rate on the future surface area of biodiverse wilderness and on the proportion of this area without major extinctions. The following four drivers are considered: human population growth (1), agricultural efficiency (2), groundwater drawdown by irrigation (3), and non-agricultural space used by humans (buildings, gardens, roads, etc.) (4). This study indicates that the surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land will reduce with about 5.4% between 2012 and 2050. Further, it indicates that the biodiverse land without major extinctions will reduce with about 10.5%. These percentages are based on a commonly used population trajectory which assumes that birth rates across the globe will reduce in a similar way as has occurred in the past in many developed countries. Future birth rate is however very uncertain. Plausible future birth rates lower than the expected rates lead to much smaller reductions in surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land (0.7% as opposed to 5.4%), and a reduction in the biodiverse land without major extinctions of about 5.6% (as opposed to 10.5%). This indicates that birth rate is an important factor influencing the quality and quantity of wilderness remaining in the future.

  9. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-07-14

    The primary goal of this research project was to evaluate the response of Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) to the potential effects of changes in the amount of available habitat due to human influences such as ground water pumping, barriers to movement, and extirpation of Moapa dace from the mainstem Muddy River. To understand how these factors affect Moapa dace populations and to provide a tool to guide recovery actions, we developed a stochastic model to simulate Moapa dace population dynamics. Specifically, we developed an individual based model (IBM) to incorporate the critical components that drive Moapa dace population dynamics. Our model is composed of several interlinked submodels that describe changes in Moapa dace habitat as translated into carrying capacity, the influence of carrying capacity on demographic rates of dace, and the consequent effect on equilibrium population sizes. The model is spatially explicit and represents the stream network as eight discrete stream segments. The model operates at a monthly time step to incorporate seasonally varying reproduction. Growth rates of individuals vary among stream segments, with growth rates increasing along a headwater to mainstem gradient. Movement and survival of individuals are driven by density-dependent relationships that are influenced by the carrying capacity of each stream segment.

  10. Six rapid assessments of alcohol and other substance use in populations displaced by conflict

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adelekan Moruf

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Substance use among populations displaced by conflict is a neglected area of public health. Alcohol, khat, benzodiazepine, opiate, and other substance use have been documented among a range of displaced populations, with wide-reaching health and social impacts. Changing agendas in humanitarian response-including increased prominence of mental health and chronic illness-have so far failed to be translated into meaningful interventions for substance use. Methods Studies were conducted from 2006 to 2008 in six different settings of protracted displacement, three in Africa (Kenya, Liberia, northern Uganda and three in Asia (Iran, Pakistan, and Thailand. We used intervention-oriented qualitative Rapid Assessment and Response methods, adapted from two decades of experience among non-displaced populations. The main sources of data were individual and group interviews conducted with a culturally representative (non-probabilistic sample of community members and service providers. Results Widespread use of alcohol, particularly artisanally-produced alcohol, in Kenya, Liberia, Uganda, and Thailand, and opiates in Iran and Pakistan was believed by participants to be linked to a range of health, social and protection problems, including illness, injury (intentional and unintentional, gender-based violence, risky behaviour for HIV and other sexually transmitted infection and blood-borne virus transmission, as well as detrimental effects to household economy. Displacement experiences, including dispossession, livelihood restriction, hopelessness and uncertain future may make communities particularly vulnerable to substance use and its impact, and changing social norms and networks (including the surrounding population may result in changed - and potentially more harmful-patterns of use. Limited access to services, including health services, and exclusion from relevant host population programmes, may exacerbate the harmful consequences

  11. Rapid and Controlled In Situ Growth of Noble Metal Nanostructures within Halloysite Clay Nanotubes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rostamzadeh, Taha; Islam Khan, Md Shahidul; Riche', Kyle; Lvov, Yuri M; Stavitskaya, Anna V; Wiley, John B

    2017-11-14

    A rapid (≤2 min) and high-yield low-temperature synthesis has been developed for the in situ growth of gold nanoparticles (NPs) with controlled sizes in the interior of halloysite nanotubes (HNTs). A combination of HAuCl 4 in ethanol/toluene, oleic acid, and oleylamine surfactants and ascorbic acid reducing agent with mild heating (55 °C) readily lead to the growth of targeted nanostructures. The sizes of Au NPs are tuned mainly by adjusting nucleation and growth rates. Further modification of the process, through an increase in ascorbic acid, allows for the formation of nanorods (NRs)/nanowires within the HNTs. This approach is not limited to gold-a modified version of this synthetic strategy can also be applied to the formation of Ag NPs and NRs within the clay nanotubes. The ability to readily grow such core-shell nanosystems is important to their further development as nanoreactors and active catalysts. NPs within the tube interior can further be manipulated by the electron beam. Growth of Au and Ag could be achieved under a converged electron beam suggesting that both Au@HNT and Ag@HNT systems can be used for the fundamental studies of NP growth/attachment.

  12. Is rapid growth in Internet usage environmentally sustainable for Australia? An empirical investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salahuddin, Mohammad; Alam, Khorshed; Ozturk, Ilhan

    2016-03-01

    This study estimates the short- and long-run effects of Internet usage and economic growth on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions using annual time series macro data for Australia for the period 1985-2012. Autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bounds and Gregory-Hansen structural break cointegration tests are applied. ARDL estimates indicate no significant long-run relationship between Internet usage and CO2 emissions, which implies that the rapid growth in Internet usage is still not an environmental threat for Australia. The study further indicates that higher level of economic growth is associated with lower level of CO2 emissions; however, Internet usage and economic growth have no significant short-run relationship with CO2 emissions. Financial development has both short-run and long-run significant positive association with CO2 emissions. The findings offer support in favor of energy efficiency gains and a reduction in energy intensity in Australia. However, impulse response and variance decomposition analysis suggest that Internet usage, economic growth and financial development will continue to impact CO2 emissions in the future, and as such, this study recommends that in addition to the existing measures to combat CO2 emissions, Australia needs to exploit the potential of the Internet not only to reduce its own carbon footprint but also to utilize information and communication technology (ICT)-enabled emissions abatement potential to reduce emissions in various other sectors across the economy, such as, power, renewable energy especially in solar and wind energy, agriculture, transport and service.

  13. Large plasma-membrane depolarization precedes rapid blue-light-induced growth inhibition in cucumber

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spalding, E. P.; Cosgrove, D. J.

    1989-01-01

    Blue-light (BL)-induced suppression of elongation of etiolated Cucumis sativus L. hypocotyls began after a 30-s lag time, which was halved by increasing the fluence rate from 10 to 100 micromoles m-2 s-1. Prior to the growth suppression, the plasma-membrane of the irradiated cells depolarized by as much as 100 mV, then returned within 2-3 min to near its initial value. The potential difference measured with surface electrodes changed with an identical time course but opposite polarity. The lag time for the change in surface potential showed an inverse dependence on fluence rate, similar to the lag for the growth inhibition. Green light and red light caused neither the electrical response nor the rapid inhibition of growth. The depolarization by BL did not propagate to nonirradiated regions and exhibited a refractory period of about 10 min following a BL pulse. Fluence-response relationships for the electrical and growth responses provide correlational evidence that the plasma-membrane depolarization reflects an event in the transduction chain of this light-growth response.

  14. World population growth, family planning, and American foreign policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharpless, J

    1995-01-01

    The US decision since the 1960s to link foreign policy with family planning and population control is noteworthy for its intention to change the demographic structure of foreign countries and the magnitude of the initiative. The current population ideologies are part of the legacy of 19th century views on science, morality, and political economy. Strong constraints were placed on US foreign policy since World War II, particularly due to presumptions about the role of developing countries in Cold War ideology. Domestic debates revolved around issues of feminism, birth control, abortion, and family political issues. Since the 1960s, environmental degradation and resource depletion were an added global dimension of US population issues. Between 1935 and 1958 birth control movements evolved from the ideologies of utopian socialists, Malthusians, women's rights activists, civil libertarians, and advocates of sexual freedom. There was a shift from acceptance of birth control to questions about the role of national government in supporting distribution of birth control. Immediately postwar the debates over birth control were outside political circles. The concept of family planning as a middle class family issue shifted the focus from freeing women from the burdens of housework to making women more efficient housewives. Family planning could not be taken as a national policy concern without justification as a major issue, a link to national security, belief in the success of intervention, and a justifiable means of inclusion in public policy. US government involvement began with agricultural education, technological assistance, and economic development that would satisfy the world's growing population. Cold War politics forced population growth as an issue to be considered within the realm of foreign policy and diplomacy. US government sponsored family planning was enthusiastic during 1967-74 but restrained during the 1980s. The 1990s has been an era of redefinition of

  15. Prenatal exposure to traffic pollution: associations with reduced fetal growth and rapid infant weight gain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleisch, Abby F; Rifas-Shiman, Sheryl L; Koutrakis, Petros; Schwartz, Joel D; Kloog, Itai; Melly, Steven; Coull, Brent A; Zanobetti, Antonella; Gillman, Matthew W; Gold, Diane R; Oken, Emily

    2015-01-01

    Prenatal air pollution exposure inhibits fetal growth, but implications for postnatal growth are unknown. We assessed weights and lengths of US infants in the Project Viva cohort at birth and 6 months. We estimated 3rd-trimester residential air pollution exposures using spatiotemporal models. We estimated neighborhood traffic density and roadway proximity at birth address using geographic information systems. We performed linear and logistic regression adjusted for sociodemographic variables, fetal growth, and gestational age at birth. Mean birth weight-for-gestational age z-score (fetal growth) was 0.17 (standard deviation [SD] = 0.97; n = 2,114), 0- to 6-month weight-for-length gain was 0.23 z-units (SD = 1.11; n = 689), and 17% had weight-for-length ≥95th percentile at 6 months of age. Infants exposed to the highest (vs. lowest) quartile of neighborhood traffic density had lower fetal growth (-0.13 units [95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.25 to -0.01]), more rapid 0- to 6-month weight-for-length gain (0.25 units [95% CI = 0.01 to 0.49]), and higher odds of weight-for-length ≥95th percentile at 6 months (1.84 [95% CI = 1.11 to 3.05]). Neighborhood traffic density was additionally associated with an infant being in both the lowest quartile of fetal growth and the highest quartile of 0- to 6-month weight-for-length gain (Q4 vs. Q1, odds ratio = 3.01 [95% CI = 1.08 to 8.44]). Roadway proximity and 3rd-trimester black carbon exposure were similarly associated with growth outcomes. For 3rd-trimester particulate matter (PM2.5), effect estimates were in the same direction, but smaller and imprecise. Infants exposed to higher traffic-related pollution in early life may exhibit more rapid postnatal weight gain in addition to reduced fetal growth.

  16. Driving forces of rapid CO2 emissions growth: A case of Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Yong-Gun; Yoo, Jonghyun; Oh, Wankeun

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to investigate Korea's final demand structure and its impacts on CO 2 emissions in order to reduce CO 2 emissions and develop environmental policy directions. Based on the environmentally extended input–output model, this study adopts a two-step approach: (1) to estimate the embodied emissions and their intensities for 393 sectors induced by final demand; and (2) to calculate the driving factors of emission growth between 2003 and 2011 and then evaluate the result by using Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA). The findings of this study demonstrate that the impact of composition change in export with less embodied emission intensities tends to offset the increase in CO 2 emission by the export scale growth. The relatively low residential electricity price has resulted in the rapid growth of household electricity consumption and significantly contributed to emissions growth. The result of SDA indicates that Korea's final demand behavior yielded high carbonization over the same period. The findings suggest that Korean government should promote exports in industries with less embedded CO 2 in order to protect environments. In addition, emission information of each product and service should be provided for consumers to change their purchase patterns towards contributing to low carbon emissions as active players. -- Highlights: •We investigate Korea's final demand structure and its contribution to CO 2 emissions. •Using SDA, we evaluate the driving factors of emission growth from 2003 to 2011. •Exports play a critical role in Korea's CO 2 emissions growth. •The relatively low residential electricity price has contributed to emission growth. •Korea's final demand behavior yielded high carbonization over the same period

  17. Contribution of population growth to per capita income and sectoral output growth in Japan, 1880-1970.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, M; Kennedy, G

    1984-09-01

    The authors measured the positive and negative contributions of population and labor force growth to the growth of per capita income and sectoral output in Japan in the 1880-1970 period. A 2-sector growth accounting model that treats population and labor growth as separate variables was used. 3 alternative methods were used: the Residual method, the Verdoorn method, and the factor augmenting rate method. The total contribution of population cum labor growth to per capita income growth tended to be negative in the 1880-1930 period and positive in the 1930-40 and 1950-70. Over the 1880-1970 period as a whole, population cum labor growth made a positive contribution to per capita income growth under the Residual method (0.35%/year), the factor augmenting rate method (0.29%/year), and the Verdoorn method (0.01%/year). In addition, population cum labor growth contributed positively to sectoral output growth. The average contribution to agricultural output growth ranged from 1.03% (Verdoorn) - 1.46%/year (factor augmenting rate), while the average contribution to nonagricultural output growth ranged from 1.22% (Verdoorn) - 1.60%/year (Residual). Although these results are dependent on the model used, the fact that all 3 methods yielded consistent results suggests that population cum labor growth did make a positive contribution to per capita income and sectoral output growth in Japan. These findings imply that in economies where the rate of technical change in agricultural and nonagricultural sectors exceeds population growth, policies that reduce agricultural elasticities may be preferable; on the other hand, policies that reduce agricultural elasticities are to be avoided in economies with low rates of technical change. Moreover, in the early stages of economic development, policies that increase agricultural income and price elasticities should be considered.

  18. Population and labour force growth and patterns in ASEAN countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saw, S

    1988-01-01

    "The paper shows that the diverse labor dimensions prevailing in the ASEAN region can be attributed to changes in the structure of the society and economy in the course of recent economic development. It observes the considerable variety in the growth of the population and its effect on the labor force in the ASEAN region.... The paper details the similarity and diversity in the level and type of labor force participation rates. A common feature shared by ASEAN countries is a general pattern in the age-specific participation rate of men. In contrast, the women, aside from participating in the labor force at a much lower level than men at almost all ages, display diverse patterns of participation over the working age range. Lastly, the distribution of the labor force according to major industrial sectors in the six ASEAN countries is presented...." excerpt

  19. Hydrothermal vents in Lake Tanganyika harbor spore-forming thermophiles with extremely rapid growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elsgaard, Lars; Prieur, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    A thermophilic anaerobic bacterium was isolated from a sublacustrine hydrothermal vent site in Lake Tanganyika (East Africa) with recorded fluid temperatures of 66–103 °C and pH values of 7.7–8.9. The bacterium (strain TR10) was rod-shaped, about 1 by 5 μm in size, and readily formed distal...... and peptone. The optimum temperature for growth was 60 °C, while minimum and maximum temperatures were 40 and 75 °C. The pH response was alkalitolerant with optimum pH at 7.4 and 8.5 depending on the growth medium. The distinct feature of rapid proliferation and endospore formation may allow the novel...

  20. Contributions of long-distance dispersal to population growth in colonising Pinus ponderosa populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesser, Mark R; Jackson, Stephen T

    2013-03-01

    Long-distance dispersal is an integral part of plant species migration and population development. We aged and genotyped 1125 individuals in four disjunct populations of Pinus ponderosa that were initially established by long-distance dispersal in the 16th and 17th centuries. Parentage analysis was used to determine if individuals were the product of local reproductive events (two parents present), long-distance pollen dispersal (one parent present) or long-distance seed dispersal (no parents present). All individuals established in the first century at each site were the result of long-distance dispersal. Individuals reproduced at younger ages with increasing age of the overall population. These results suggest Allee effects, where populations were initially unable to expand on their own, and were dependent on long-distance dispersal to overcome a minimum-size threshold. Our results demonstrate that long-distance dispersal was not only necessary for initial colonisation but also to sustain subsequent population growth during early phases of expansion. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  1. The impact of rapid economic growth and globalization on zinc nutrition in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwun, In-Sook; Do, Mi-Sook; Chung, Hae-Rang; Kim, Yang Ha; Beattie, John H

    2009-08-01

    Zn deficiency may be widespread in Asian countries such as South Korea. However, dietary habits have changed in response to rapid economic growth and globalization. Zn nutrition in South Koreans has therefore been assessed during a period (1969-1998) of unprecedented economic growth. Cross-sectional food consumption data from the Korean National Nutrition Survey Reports (KNNSR) of South Korea at four separate time points (1969, 1978, 1988 and 1998) were used to calculate Zn, Ca and phytate intakes using various food composition tables, databases and literature values. Nutrient values in local foods were cited from their analysed values. Average Zn intake was 5.8, 4.8 and 5.3 mg/d for 1969, 1978 and 1988 respectively, increasing to 7.3 mg/d in 1998 (73 % of the Korean Dietary Reference Intake). The phytate:Zn molar ratio decreased from 21 to 8 during the study period. Dietary Zn depletion due to marked decreases in cereal consumption, particularly barley which has a low Zn bioavailability, was counterbalanced by marked increases in the consumption of meat and fish, which are also Zn-rich foods. Reduced phytate consumption coincident with increased Zn intake suggests that Zn bioavailability also improved, particularly by 1998. Although total Zn intake was not greatly affected over the initial period of economic growth in South Korea (1969-1988), Zn contributions from different food sources changed markedly and both Zn intake and potential bioavailability were improved by 1998. The study may have implications for Zn nutrition in other Asian countries currently experiencing rapid economic growth.

  2. Human population growth offsets climate-driven increase in woody vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Martin; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Peñuelas, Josep; Tian, Feng; Schurgers, Guy; Verger, Aleixandre; Mertz, Ole; Palmer, John R B; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2017-03-06

    The rapidly growing human population in sub-Saharan Africa generates increasing demand for agricultural land and forest products, which presumably leads to deforestation. Conversely, a greening of African drylands has been reported, but this has been difficult to associate with changes in woody vegetation. There is thus an incomplete understanding of how woody vegetation responds to socio-economic and environmental change. Here we used a passive microwave Earth observation data set to document two different trends in land area with woody cover for 1992-2011: 36% of the land area (6,870,000 km 2 ) had an increase in woody cover largely in drylands, and 11% had a decrease (2,150,000 km 2 ), mostly in humid zones. Increases in woody cover were associated with low population growth, and were driven by increases in CO 2 in the humid zones and by increases in precipitation in drylands, whereas decreases in woody cover were associated with high population growth. The spatially distinct pattern of these opposing trends reflects, first, the natural response of vegetation to precipitation and atmospheric CO 2 , and second, deforestation in humid areas, minor in size but important for ecosystem services, such as biodiversity and carbon stocks. This nuanced picture of changes in woody cover challenges widely held views of a general and ongoing reduction of the woody vegetation in Africa.

  3. Grassland ecology and population growth: striking a balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, D; Duan, C; Zhang, D

    2000-06-01

    Degradation of forest and grasslands in western China attributes to the soil erosion and desertification in the country. Researchers have established that the primary reason for the degradation of grasslands is overgrazing, which in turn is caused by a number of factors, including over-population and over-reliance on animal husbandry. In addition, the existing administrative system has also proved ineffective in ensuring sustainable development. On contrary, many local governments even encourage exploitative development of grassland; thus, localities opened up grassland for growing crops in an effort to increase income. According to estimates, degraded grassland accounts for more than one-third of utilizable acreage and another one-third suffers from a profusion of rats and pests. To redress the situation, central government should implement strategies in achieving sustainable development, such as providing banking and tax incentives for the development of the secondary and tertiary industries, and supporting education and training of youths from herding areas. Moreover, government should increase spending on infrastructural construction and ecological preservation. Finally, the family planning program needs to be enforced to control population growth and improve the quality of peoples¿ lives.

  4. Drastic population fluctuations explain the rapid extinction of the passenger pigeon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Chih-Ming; Shaner, Pei-Jen L; Zink, Robert M; Liu, Wei-Chung; Chu, Te-Chin; Huang, Wen-San; Li, Shou-Hsien

    2014-07-22

    To assess the role of human disturbances in species' extinction requires an understanding of the species population history before human impact. The passenger pigeon was once the most abundant bird in the world, with a population size estimated at 3-5 billion in the 1800s; its abrupt extinction in 1914 raises the question of how such an abundant bird could have been driven to extinction in mere decades. Although human exploitation is often blamed, the role of natural population dynamics in the passenger pigeon's extinction remains unexplored. Applying high-throughput sequencing technologies to obtain sequences from most of the genome, we calculated that the passenger pigeon's effective population size throughout the last million years was persistently about 1/10,000 of the 1800's estimated number of individuals, a ratio 1,000-times lower than typically found. This result suggests that the passenger pigeon was not always super abundant but experienced dramatic population fluctuations, resembling those of an "outbreak" species. Ecological niche models supported inference of drastic changes in the extent of its breeding range over the last glacial-interglacial cycle. An estimate of acorn-based carrying capacity during the past 21,000 y showed great year-to-year variations. Based on our results, we hypothesize that ecological conditions that dramatically reduced population size under natural conditions could have interacted with human exploitation in causing the passenger pigeon's rapid demise. Our study illustrates that even species as abundant as the passenger pigeon can be vulnerable to human threats if they are subject to dramatic population fluctuations, and provides a new perspective on the greatest human-caused extinction in recorded history.

  5. Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian J Fiske

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5, and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high

  6. Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiske, Ian J; Bruna, Emilio M; Bolker, Benjamin M

    2008-08-28

    Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities.

  7. The impact of accelerating faster than exponential population growth on genetic variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reppell, Mark; Boehnke, Michael; Zöllner, Sebastian

    2014-03-01

    Current human sequencing projects observe an abundance of extremely rare genetic variation, suggesting recent acceleration of population growth. To better understand the impact of such accelerating growth on the quantity and nature of genetic variation, we present a new class of models capable of incorporating faster than exponential growth in a coalescent framework. Our work shows that such accelerated growth affects only the population size in the recent past and thus large samples are required to detect the models' effects on patterns of variation. When we compare models with fixed initial growth rate, models with accelerating growth achieve very large current population sizes and large samples from these populations contain more variation than samples from populations with constant growth. This increase is driven almost entirely by an increase in singleton variation. Moreover, linkage disequilibrium decays faster in populations with accelerating growth. When we instead condition on current population size, models with accelerating growth result in less overall variation and slower linkage disequilibrium decay compared to models with exponential growth. We also find that pairwise linkage disequilibrium of very rare variants contains information about growth rates in the recent past. Finally, we demonstrate that models of accelerating growth may substantially change estimates of present-day effective population sizes and growth times.

  8. Water hammer due to rapid bubble growth at a severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aya, Izuo; Adachi, Masaki; Shiozaki, Koki; Inasaka, Fujio

    2000-01-01

    On a severe accident of the light water reactor (LWR), by steam explosion and so forth due to hydrogen formation by water-metal reaction and direct contact of molted core with water, it is presumed that a lot of vapor forms for a short time in water at reactor vessel and under part of containment vessel. This study aims at and carries out, under reference of the conventional study results, experimental elucidation on coherence of water block motion due to rapid bubble growth, proposal on reduction method of water hammering, development of water hammer estimating method in an actual reactor, and proposal for upgrading of reliability on severe accident evaluation. In 1998 fiscal year, an 'Experimental apparatus on water hammering elements on sever accident' simulated rapid bubble growth due to steam explosion by injecting high pressure air into water was produced to carry out its function test. As a result of the carried out function tests, extreme water hammering phenomena were observed, by which validity of establishment on the study objects could be confirmed. (G.K.)

  9. The Environmental Consequences of Altered Nitrogen Cycling Resulting from Industrial Activity, Agricultural Production, and Population Growth in China

    OpenAIRE

    Xing, G.X.; Zhu, Z.L.

    2001-01-01

    Human activities exerted very little effect on nitrogen (N) cycling in China before 1949. Between 1949 and 1999, however, rapid economic development and population growth led to dramatic changes in anthropogenic reactive N, inputted recycling N, N flux on land, N2O emission, and NH3 volatilization. Consequently, these changes have had a tremendous impact on the environment in China. In the current study, we estimated the amount of atmospheric wet N deposition and N transportation into water b...

  10. The impact of population growth on environment: the debate heats up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, R P

    1992-02-01

    A proposed framework, which was introduced at the 1989 meetings of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, included political constraints as well as population growth as a proximate cause with potentially important impacts on the environment in Paul and Ann Ehrlich's well-known PAT equation. PAT limitations are identified as the 1.2 billion people caught in the debt-poverty trap, less developed countries' balance of payments deficits, and "distortionary factors" that undermined economic incentives and contributed to mismanagement of resources. Such factors could be keeping farm prices low and have an impact on deterring use of environmentally sound traditional agricultural practices. Mismanagement of public lands occurs when large commercial enterprises or large scale mechanization displace population onto marginal or less productive lands. Intergroup warfare is a new form impacting on the environment. In Burma loggers are authorized to clear cut large tracts of teak forests in order to ferret out Karen guerrillas. Over 15 million refugees were thus displaced and forced to live in encampments that require trees for shelter, firewood for survival, and overgrazing of livestock. Social and economic environments are also undermined by "dependency" factors such as trade protectionism, brain drain, and limited foreign aid. The Group of 77 Non-Aligned Developing Countries proposed that discussions of the links between population and the environment be omitted from the agenda of the 1994 UN Conference on Population and Development. Basic clarifications are needed to distinguish ultimate versus proximate factors and current versus future concerns. The debate ignores distribution patterns, migration, or changing age structures. The debate blames unjustifiably rapid population growth as the ultimate cause of global environmental degradation and links population growth to a host of other social problems such as famine and refugees, while ignoring civil unrest

  11. Lion (Panthera leo) populations are declining rapidly across Africa, except in intensively managed areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Hans; Chapron, Guillaume; Nowell, Kristin; Henschel, Philipp; Funston, Paul; Hunter, Luke T B; Macdonald, David W; Packer, Craig

    2015-12-01

    We compiled all credible repeated lion surveys and present time series data for 47 lion (Panthera leo) populations. We used a Bayesian state space model to estimate growth rate-λ for each population and summed these into three regional sets to provide conservation-relevant estimates of trends since 1990. We found a striking geographical pattern: African lion populations are declining everywhere, except in four southern countries (Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe). Population models indicate a 67% chance that lions in West and Central Africa decline by one-half, while estimating a 37% chance that lions in East Africa also decline by one-half over two decades. We recommend separate regional assessments of the lion in the World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species: already recognized as critically endangered in West Africa, our analysis supports listing as regionally endangered in Central and East Africa and least concern in southern Africa. Almost all lion populations that historically exceeded ∼ 500 individuals are declining, but lion conservation is successful in southern Africa, in part because of the proliferation of reintroduced lions in small, fenced, intensively managed, and funded reserves. If management budgets for wild lands cannot keep pace with mounting levels of threat, the species may rely increasingly on these southern African areas and may no longer be a flagship species of the once vast natural ecosystems across the rest of the continent.

  12. A distinct hematopoietic stem cell population for rapid multilineage engraftment in nonhuman primates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radtke, Stefan; Adair, Jennifer E; Giese, Morgan A; Chan, Yan-Yi; Norgaard, Zachary K; Enstrom, Mark; Haworth, Kevin G; Schefter, Lauren E; Kiem, Hans-Peter

    2017-11-01

    Hematopoietic reconstitution after bone marrow transplantation is thought to be driven by committed multipotent progenitor cells followed by long-term engrafting hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs). We observed a population of early-engrafting cells displaying HSC-like behavior, which persisted long-term in vivo in an autologous myeloablative transplant model in nonhuman primates. To identify this population, we characterized the phenotype and function of defined nonhuman primate hematopoietic stem and progenitor cell (HSPC) subsets and compared these to human HSPCs. We demonstrated that the CD34 + CD45RA - CD90 + cell phenotype is highly enriched for HSCs. This population fully supported rapid short-term recovery and robust multilineage hematopoiesis in the nonhuman primate transplant model and quantitatively predicted transplant success and time to neutrophil and platelet recovery. Application of this cell population has potential in the setting of HSC transplantation and gene therapy/editing approaches. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

  13. Validity and feasibility of a satellite imagery-based method for rapid estimation of displaced populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Checchi, Francesco; Stewart, Barclay T; Palmer, Jennifer J; Grundy, Chris

    2013-01-23

    Estimating the size of forcibly displaced populations is key to documenting their plight and allocating sufficient resources to their assistance, but is often not done, particularly during the acute phase of displacement, due to methodological challenges and inaccessibility. In this study, we explored the potential use of very high resolution satellite imagery to remotely estimate forcibly displaced populations. Our method consisted of multiplying (i) manual counts of assumed residential structures on a satellite image and (ii) estimates of the mean number of people per structure (structure occupancy) obtained from publicly available reports. We computed population estimates for 11 sites in Bangladesh, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Kenya and Mozambique (six refugee camps, three internally displaced persons' camps and two urban neighbourhoods with a mixture of residents and displaced) ranging in population from 1,969 to 90,547, and compared these to "gold standard" reference population figures from census or other robust methods. Structure counts by independent analysts were reasonably consistent. Between one and 11 occupancy reports were available per site and most of these reported people per household rather than per structure. The imagery-based method had a precision relative to reference population figures of layout. For each site, estimates were produced in 2-5 working person-days. In settings with clearly distinguishable individual structures, the remote, imagery-based method had reasonable accuracy for the purposes of rapid estimation, was simple and quick to implement, and would likely perform better in more current application. However, it may have insurmountable limitations in settings featuring connected buildings or shelters, a complex pattern of roofs and multi-level buildings. Based on these results, we discuss possible ways forward for the method's development.

  14. Strong persistent growth differences govern individual performance and population dynamics in a tropical forest understorey palm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, M.; Zuidema, P.A.; Anten, N.P.R.; Martínez-Ramos, M.

    2012-01-01

    1. Persistent variation in growth rate between individual plants can have strong effects on population dynamics as fast growers reach the reproductive size at an earlier age and thus potentially contribute more to population growth than slow growers. In tropical forests, such persistent growth

  15. Population Growth in the 1990s: Patterns within the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Marc

    2002-01-01

    Examines population growth during the 1990s for a variety of geographic levels including regions, divisions, states, metropolitan areas, counties, and large cities. Compares growth rates for the 1990s with earlier decades to provide an historical context for present-day trends in population growth and decline. Discusses how differential population…

  16. Experimental design and estimation of growth rate distributions in size-structured shrimp populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banks, H T; Davis, Jimena L; Ernstberger, Stacey L; Hu, Shuhua; Artimovich, Elena; Dhar, Arun K

    2009-01-01

    We discuss inverse problem results for problems involving the estimation of probability distributions using aggregate data for growth in populations. We begin with a mathematical model describing variability in the early growth process of size-structured shrimp populations and discuss a computational methodology for the design of experiments to validate the model and estimate the growth-rate distributions in shrimp populations. Parameter-estimation findings using experimental data from experiments so designed for shrimp populations cultivated at Advanced BioNutrition Corporation are presented, illustrating the usefulness of mathematical and statistical modeling in understanding the uncertainty in the growth dynamics of such populations

  17. Age, growth and population structure of invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles in northeast Florida using a length-based, age-structured population model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric G. Johnson

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The effective management of invasive species requires detailed understanding of the invader’s life history. This information is essential for modeling population growth and predicting rates of expansion, quantifying ecological impacts and assessing the efficacy of removal and control strategies. Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles have rapidly invaded the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea with documented negative impacts on native ecosystems. To better understand the life history of this species, we developed and validated a length-based, age-structured model to investigate age, growth and population structure in northeast Florida. The main findings of this study were: (1 lionfish exhibited rapid growth with seasonal variation in growth rates; (2 distinct cohorts were clearly identifiable in the length-frequency data, suggesting that lionfish are recruiting during a relatively short period in summer; and (3 the majority of lionfish were less than two years old with no lionfish older than three years of age, which may be the result of culling efforts as well as ontogenetic habitat shifts to deeper water.

  18. Age, growth and population structure of invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) in northeast Florida using a length-based, age-structured population model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Eric G; Swenarton, Mary Katherine

    2016-01-01

    The effective management of invasive species requires detailed understanding of the invader's life history. This information is essential for modeling population growth and predicting rates of expansion, quantifying ecological impacts and assessing the efficacy of removal and control strategies. Indo-Pacific lionfish ( Pterois volitans/miles ) have rapidly invaded the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea with documented negative impacts on native ecosystems. To better understand the life history of this species, we developed and validated a length-based, age-structured model to investigate age, growth and population structure in northeast Florida. The main findings of this study were: (1) lionfish exhibited rapid growth with seasonal variation in growth rates; (2) distinct cohorts were clearly identifiable in the length-frequency data, suggesting that lionfish are recruiting during a relatively short period in summer; and (3) the majority of lionfish were less than two years old with no lionfish older than three years of age, which may be the result of culling efforts as well as ontogenetic habitat shifts to deeper water.

  19. Association of malignancy with rapid growth in early lesions induced by irradiation of rat skin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGregor, J.F.

    1979-01-01

    Epithelial lesions induced by irradiation of rat skin were studied to determine (a) the relationship of malignancy to dose, (b) the types of lesions and circumstances leading to overt malignancy, and (c) the growth rates of lesions progressing to malignancy versus those of lesions remaining benign. High doses of radiation were shown to be associated with the production of epidermal cancers, the maximum yield being obtained at 6,400 rads. Conversely, a peak yield of noncancerous lesions was obtained at 1,600 rads. This association between malignancy and high dose was consistent for cancers evolving from warts, cysts, and chronic ulcers. Although the proportion of warts among the induced lesions was much higher than that of the cysts or chronic ulcers (76, 14, and 10%, respectively), the likelihood of warts becoming cancerous was substantially lower (14, 23, and 21%). The combined data for all doses showed that the latency period of the epidermal cancers was significantly (P = 0.015) shorter than that of the benign tumors. Rapid growth rates were observed for warts, cysts, and chronic ulcers progressing to overt cancer, and these did not overlap at any point on the growth scale with rates for benign tumors. This finding suggested that the potential for malignant development had been established early in the carcinogenic process, very likely at induction

  20. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    OpenAIRE

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-01-01

    An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant p...

  1. [The decline in the population growth rate--a priority issue in international politics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhein, E

    1994-08-25

    The Third International UN Conference on Population and Development took place in Cairo in early September 1994 with the participation of 200 governments and 1000 nongovernmental organizations to discuss ways of stabilizing world population at the possible lowest level and how industrialized countries could contribute to this effort. As a consequence of the advances in reproductive medicine the use of contraceptives skyrocketed: in 1994 more than half of men and women were using contraception compared to only 5% in 1950. However, the demographic momentum would still increase world population for another 100 years, even if fertility would drop to 2.2 children per couple (compared to 4 children in 1990). Nevertheless, the present generation could be instrumental in deciding whether the world's population will remain around 8 billion or reach 12 billion between 2050 and 2150. Poor countries can no longer afford an annual growth rate of 2-4% while also trying to improve living standards; this would require an economic growth rate of 6-8%. For the control of population growth both a sustainable environmental policy in the North, with rapid transition to renewable energy and recycling, and a more effective population policy in the South are needed. Family planning (FP) is the precondition of stabilization. The global FP outlays are envisioned to double from the 1994 figure of $5 billion to over $10 billion in the year 2000, with donor contributions to increase from 20% to 40% of the total. The US contribution is to double from $500 million by 2000, while the European Commission decided to boost expenditures for FP from DM 30 million in 1994 to DM 600 million by 2000. Japan is also expending $3 billion during this period. Recent promising developments have emerged: national pronatalist policies have diminished sharply and the pronatalist influence of religions has also declined. Political commitment at the highest level is central to a successful population policy as

  2. SOCIAL INEQUALITY IN CHINA AS A RESULT OF THE RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Вероника Игоревна Шехурдина

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the period of openness in China, laid the foundation for more than 30 years ago, he has made remarkable progress in increasing incomes and reducing absolute poverty. However, they are caused by rising inequality. It should be noted that the rise in inequality was seen almost everywhere in the world over the past two decades. Growing dissatisfaction with the quality of economic growth is often seen in favor of certain groups more than the general population. This is clearly reflected in the growth of inequality between different groups - the rich are getting richer faster than the poor. The economic literature attributes this mainly to globalization, technological change, skills-based, and reduce the "power" of the workers. Growth model, which accompanies the last three decades to China, included a trade-off between high growth (and subsequent reduction of absolute poverty and worsening inequality. The government of China has recognized this problem and taken active steps to reduce the gap incomes and standards of living in the city and rural areas, which have already brought the first results.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-10-16

  3. Rapid growth in nitrogen dioxide pollution over Western China, 2005-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Yuanzheng; Lin, Jintai; Song, Chunqiao; Liu, Mengyao; Yan, Yingying; Xu, Yuan; Huang, Bo

    2016-05-01

    Western China has experienced rapid industrialization and urbanization since the implementation of the National Western Development Strategies (the "Go West" movement) in 1999. This transition has affected the spatial and temporal characteristics of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution. In this study, we analyze the trends and variability of tropospheric NO2 vertical column densities (VCDs) from 2005 to 2013 over Western China, based on a wavelet analysis on monthly mean NO2 data derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements. We focus on the anthropogenic NO2 by subtracting region-specific "background" values dominated by natural sources. After removing the background influences, we find significant anthropogenic NO2 growth over Western China between 2005 and 2013 (8.6 ± 0.9 % yr-1 on average, relative to 2005), with the largest increments (15 % yr-1 or more) over parts of several city clusters. The NO2 pollution in most provincial-level regions rose rapidly from 2005 to 2011 but stabilized or declined afterwards. The NO2 trends were driven mainly by changes in anthropogenic emissions, as confirmed by a nested GEOS-Chem model simulation and a comparison with Chinese official emission statistics. The rate of NO2 growth during 2005-2013 reaches 11.3 ± 1.0 % yr-1 over Northwestern China, exceeding the rates over Southwestern China (5.9 ± 0.6 % yr-1) and the three well-known polluted regions in the east (5.3 ± 0.8 % yr-1 over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, 4.0 ± 0.6 % yr-1 over the Yangtze River Delta, and -3.3 ± 0.3 % yr-1 over the Pearl River Delta). Subsequent socioeconomic analyses suggest that the rapid NO2 growth over Northwestern China is likely related to the fast developing resource- and pollution-intensive industries along with the "Go West" movement as well as relatively weak emission controls. Further efforts should be made to alleviate NOx pollution to achieve sustainable development in Western China.

  4. Rapid growth in nitrogen dioxide pollution over Western China, 2005-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Y.-Z.; Lin, J.-T.; Song, C.; Liu, M.-Y.; Yan, Y.-Y.; Xu, Y.; Huang, B.

    2015-12-01

    Western China has experienced rapid industrialization and urbanization since the implementation of the National Western Development Strategies (the "Go West" movement) in 1999. This transition has affected the spatial and temporal characteristics of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution. In this study, we analyze the trends and variability of tropospheric NO2 vertical column densities (VCDs) from 2005 to 2013 over Western China, based on a wavelet analysis on monthly mean NO2 data derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements. We focus on the anthropogenic NO2 by subtracting region-specific "background" values dominated by natural sources. We find significant NO2 growth over Western China between 2005 and 2013 (8.6 ± 0.9 % yr-1 on average, relative to 2005), with the largest increments (15 % yr-1 or more) over parts of several city clusters. The NO2 pollution in most provincial regions rose rapidly from 2005 to 2011 but stabilized or declined afterwards. The NO2 trends were driven mainly by changes in anthropogenic emissions, as confirmed by a nested GEOS-Chem model simulation and a comparison with Chinese official emission statistics. The rate of NO2 growth during 2005-2013 reaches 11.3 ± 1.0 % yr-1 over Northwestern China, exceeding the rates over Southwestern China (5.9 ± 0.6 % yr-1) and the three well-known polluted regions in the east (5.3 ± 0.8 % yr-1 over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, 4.0 ± 0.6 % yr-1} over the Yangtze River Delta, and -3.3 ± 0.3 % yr-1 over the Pearl River Delta). Additional socioeconomic analyses suggest that the rapid NO2 growth in Northwestern China is likely related to the fast developing resource- and pollution-intensive industries along with the "Go West" movement as well as relatively weak emission controls. Further efforts should be made to alleviate NOx pollution to achieve sustainable development in Western China.

  5. POPULATION GROWTH AND PREFERENCE CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL WITH GENDER TIME DISTRIBUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The study builds a model of dynamic interactions between the birth rate, the mortality rate, the population, wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, leisure and children caring, habit formation and preference change. The production technology and markets are built on the Solow growth model. We base our modeling the population dynamics on the Haavelmo population model and the Barro-Becker fertility choice model. This study takes account of habit formation and preference change. Although it is influenced by the Ramsey growth theory with time preference and habit formation, it uses Zhang’s approach to the household with habit formation and preference change. We synthesize different dynamic forces in a compact framework, using the utility function proposed by Zhang. Analytically, we focus on transitional processes as well as economic equilibrium. As the economic system is given by autonomous nonlinear differential equations, it is not easy to analyze its behavior. We simulate the model to demonstrate the existence of an equilibrium point and plot the motion of the dynamic system. We examine the effects of changes in weights given to the habit stock of children, the wife’s wage rate having negative impact on the propensity to have children, the wife weighing less the habit stock of leisure time, the wife’s habit stock of leisure time having negative impact on the husband’s propensity to use leisure time, the wife’s wage rate having negative impact on the husband’s propensity to use leisure time, woman’s human capital being improved, a rise in the total factor productivity, and the mother spending more time on each child fostering.

  6. A decade of rapid change: Biocultural influences on child growth in highland Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oths, Kathryn S; Smith, Hannah N; Stein, Max J; Lazo Landivar, Rodrigo J

    2018-03-01

    In the past decade many areas of Peru have been undergoing extreme environmental, economic, and cultural change. In the highland hamlet of Chugurpampa, La Libertad, climate change has ruined harvests and led to frequent periods of migration to the coast in search of livelihood. This biocultural research examines how the changes could be affecting the growth of children who maintain residence in the highlands. Clinical records from the early 2000s were compared to those from the early 2010s. Charts were randomly selected to record anthropometric data, netting a sample of 75 children ages 0-60 months of age. Analysis of covariance was run to compare mean stature, weight, and BMI between cohorts. Percentage of children who fall below the -2 threshold for z-scores for height and weight were compared by age and cohort. A significant secular trend in growth was found, with children born more recently larger than those born a decade before. The effect is most notable in the first year of life, with the growth advantage attenuated by the age of 3 for height and age 4 for weight. While children were unlikely to be stunted from 0 to 3 years of age, 44% of the later cohort were stunted and 11% were underweight from 4 to 5 years of age. Three possible explanations for the rapid shift are entertained: more time spent on the coast during gestation and early childhood, which may attenuate the effect of hypoxia on child growth; dietary change; and increased use of biomedicine. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Unique mitochondrial DNA lineages in Irish stickleback populations: cryptic refugium or rapid recolonization?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravinet, Mark; Harrod, Chris; Eizaguirre, Christophe; Prodöhl, Paulo A

    2014-06-01

    Repeated recolonization of freshwater environments following Pleistocene glaciations has played a major role in the evolution and adaptation of anadromous taxa. Located at the western fringe of Europe, Ireland and Britain were likely recolonized rapidly by anadromous fishes from the North Atlantic following the last glacial maximum (LGM). While the presence of unique mitochondrial haplotypes in Ireland suggests that a cryptic northern refugium may have played a role in recolonization, no explicit test of this hypothesis has been conducted. The three-spined stickleback is native and ubiquitous to aquatic ecosystems throughout Ireland, making it an excellent model species with which to examine the biogeographical history of anadromous fishes in the region. We used mitochondrial and microsatellite markers to examine the presence of divergent evolutionary lineages and to assess broad-scale patterns of geographical clustering among postglacially isolated populations. Our results confirm that Ireland is a region of secondary contact for divergent mitochondrial lineages and that endemic haplotypes occur in populations in Central and Southern Ireland. To test whether a putative Irish lineage arose from a cryptic Irish refugium, we used approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). However, we found no support for this hypothesis. Instead, the Irish lineage likely diverged from the European lineage as a result of postglacial isolation of freshwater populations by rising sea levels. These findings emphasize the need to rigorously test biogeographical hypothesis and contribute further evidence that postglacial processes may have shaped genetic diversity in temperate fauna.

  8. Spatial variability and macro‐scale drivers of growth for native and introduced Flathead Catfish populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massie, Danielle L.; Smith, Geoffrey; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; Bunch, Aaron J.; Lucchesi, David O.; Wagner, Tyler

    2018-01-01

    Quantifying spatial variability in fish growth and identifying large‐scale drivers of growth are fundamental to many conservation and management decisions. Although fish growth studies often focus on a single population, it is becoming increasingly clear that large‐scale studies are likely needed for addressing transboundary management needs. This is particularly true for species with high recreational value and for those with negative ecological consequences when introduced outside of their native range, such as the Flathead Catfish Pylodictis olivaris. This study quantified growth variability of the Flathead Catfish across a large portion of its contemporary range to determine whether growth differences existed between habitat types (i.e., reservoirs and rivers) and between native and introduced populations. Additionally, we investigated whether growth parameters varied as a function of latitude and time since introduction (for introduced populations). Length‐at‐age data from 26 populations across 11 states in the USA were modeled using a Bayesian hierarchical von Bertalanffy growth model. Population‐specific growth trajectories revealed large variation in Flathead Catfish growth and relatively high uncertainty in growth parameters for some populations. Relatively high uncertainty was also evident when comparing populations and when quantifying large‐scale patterns. Growth parameters (Brody growth coefficient [K] and theoretical maximum average length [L∞]) were not different (based on overlapping 90% credible intervals) between habitat types or between native and introduced populations. For populations within the introduced range of Flathead Catfish, latitude was negatively correlated with K. For native populations, we estimated an 85% probability that L∞ estimates were negatively correlated with latitude. Contrary to predictions, time since introduction was not correlated with growth parameters in introduced populations of Flathead Catfish

  9. Rapid growth of single-layer graphene on the insulating substrates by thermal CVD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, C.Y. [Faculty of Materials Science and Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093 (China); Key Laboratory of Marine Materials and Related Technologies, Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Marine Materials and Protective Technologies, Ningbo Institute of Materials Technology and Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ningbo 315201 (China); Dai, D.; Chen, G.X.; Yu, J.H. [Key Laboratory of Marine Materials and Related Technologies, Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Marine Materials and Protective Technologies, Ningbo Institute of Materials Technology and Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ningbo 315201 (China); Nishimura, K. [Key Laboratory of Marine Materials and Related Technologies, Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Marine Materials and Protective Technologies, Ningbo Institute of Materials Technology and Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ningbo 315201 (China); Advanced Nano-processing Engineering Lab, Mechanical Systems Engineering, Kogakuin University (Japan); Lin, C.-T. [Key Laboratory of Marine Materials and Related Technologies, Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Marine Materials and Protective Technologies, Ningbo Institute of Materials Technology and Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ningbo 315201 (China); Jiang, N., E-mail: jiangnan@nimte.ac.cn [Key Laboratory of Marine Materials and Related Technologies, Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Marine Materials and Protective Technologies, Ningbo Institute of Materials Technology and Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ningbo 315201 (China); Zhan, Z.L., E-mail: zl_zhan@sohu.com [Faculty of Materials Science and Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093 (China)

    2015-08-15

    Highlights: • A rapid thermal CVD process has been developed to directly grow graphene on the insulating substrates. • The treating time consumed is ≈25% compared to conventional CVD procedure. • Single-layer and few-layer graphene can be formed on quartz and SiO{sub 2}/Si substrates, respectively. • The formation of thinner graphene at the interface is due to the fast precipitation rate of carbon atoms during cooling. - Abstract: The advance of CVD technique to directly grow graphene on the insulating substrates is particularly significant for further device fabrication. As graphene is catalytically grown on metal foils, the degradation of the sample properties is unavoidable during transfer of graphene on the dielectric layer. Moreover, shortening the treatment time as possible, while achieving single-layer growth of graphene, is worthy to be investigated for promoting the efficiency of mass production. Here we performed a rapid heating/cooling process to grow graphene films directly on the insulating substrates by thermal CVD. The treating time consumed is ≈25% compared to conventional CVD procedure. In addition, we found that high-quality, single-layer graphene can be formed on quartz, but on SiO{sub 2}/Si substrate only few-layer graphene can be obtained. The pronounced substrate effect is attributed to the different dewetting behavior of Ni films on the both substrates at 950 °C.

  10. Population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis brunnea (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae) at constant temperatures and relative humidities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opit, G P; Throne, J E

    2009-06-01

    We studied the effects of temperature and relative humidity on population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis brunnea Motschulsky. L. brunnea did not survive at 43% RH, but populations increased from 22.5 to 32.5 degrees C and 55-75% RH. Interestingly, we found population growth was higher at 63% RH than at 75% RH, and the greatest population growth was recorded at 32.5 degrees C and 63% RH. At 35 degrees C, L. brunnea nymphal survivorship was 33%, and populations declined or barely grew. L. brunnea males have two to four nymphal instars, and the percentages of males with two, three, and four instars were 13, 82, and 5%, respectively. Female L. brunnea have three to five instars, and the percentages of females with three, four, and five instars were 18, 78, and 4%, respectively. The life cycle was shorter for males than females. We developed temperature-dependent development equations for male and female eggs, individual nymphal, combined nymphal, and combined immature stages and nymphal survivorship. The ability of L. brunnea to multiply rather rapidly at 55% RH may allow it to thrive under conditions of low relative humidity where other Liposcelis species may not. These data give us a better understanding of L. brunnea population dynamics and can be used to help develop effective management strategies for this psocid.

  11. Rapid assessment of visual impairment in urban population of Delhi, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Noopur; Vashist, Praveen; Malhotra, Sumit; Senjam, Suraj Singh; Misra, Vasundhara; Bhardwaj, Amit

    2015-01-01

    To determine the prevalence, causes and associated demographic factors related to visual impairment amongst the urban population of New Delhi, India. A population-based, cross-sectional study was conducted in East Delhi district using cluster random sampling methodology. This Rapid Assessment of Visual Impairment (RAVI) survey involved examination of all individuals aged 40 years and above in 24 randomly selected clusters of the district. Visual acuity (VA) assessment and comprehensive ocular examination were done during the door-to-door survey. A questionnaire was used to collect personal and demographic information of the study population. Blindness and Visual Impairment was defined as presenting VA visual impairment. Of 2421 subjects enumerated, 2331 (96.3%) were available for ophthalmic examination. Among those examined, 49.3% were males. The prevalence of visual impairment (VI) in the study population, was 11.4% (95% C.I. 10.1, 12.7) and that of blindness was 1.2% (95% C.I. 0.8, 1.6). Uncorrected refractive error was the leading cause of VI accounting for 53.4% of all VI followed by cataract (33.8%). With multivariable logistic regression, the odds of having VI increased with age (OR = 24.6[95% C.I.: 14.9, 40.7]; p visual impairment is considerable in this region despite availability of adequate eye care facilities. Awareness generation and simple interventions like cataract surgery and provision of spectacles will help to eliminate the major causes of blindness and visual impairment in this region.

  12. Why Does Population Aging Matter So Much for Asia? Population Aging, Economic Growth, and Economic Security in Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Sang-Hyop; Mason, Andrew; Park, Donghyun

    2011-01-01

    Asia as a whole is experiencing a rapid demographic transition toward older populations, though different countries are at different stages of this region- wide trend. We document Asia's aging population, describe the region's old-age support systems, and highlight the regional socioeconomic implications of the transition for those support systems. Aging populations present two fundamental challenges to Asian policymakers: (1) developing socioeconomic systems that can provide economic securit...

  13. Geographically distinct Ceratophyllum demersum populations differ in growth, photosynthetic responses and phenotypic plasticity to nitrogen availability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hyldgaard, Benita; Sorrell, Brian Keith; Olesen, Birgit

    2012-01-01

    from New Zealand (NZ) and a noninvasive population from Denmark (DK). The populations were compared with a focus on both morphological and physiological traits. The NZ population had higher relative growth rates (RGRs) and photosynthesis rates (Pmax) (range: RGR, 0.06–0.08 per day; Pmax, 200–395 µmol O......2 g–1 dry mass (DM) h–1) compared with the Danish population (range: RGR, 0.02–0.05 per day; Pmax, 88–169 µmol O2 g–1 DM h–1). The larger, faster-growing NZ population also showed higher plasticity than the DK population in response to nitrogen in traits important for growth. Hence, the observed...... differences in growth behaviour between the two populations are a result of genetic differences and differences in their level of plasticity. Here, we show that two populations of the same species from similar climates but different geographical areas can differ in several ecophysiological traits after growth...

  14. Feeding the world's increasing population while limiting climate change impacts: linking N2O and CH4 emissions from agriculture to population growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beek, Christy L. van; Meerburg, Bastiaan G.; Schils, Rene L.M.; Verhagen, Jan; Kuikman, Peter J.

    2010-01-01

    The global demand for agricultural products, including food, is rapidly increasing due to population growth and shifts in consumption patterns. The required increase in agricultural production is predominantly to be achieved in countries with relatively low agricultural production levels at present. These are mainly developing countries and countries in transition, the so-called non-Annex I countries of the UNFCCC. However, intensification of agricultural production systems is currently closely linked to high emissions of greenhouse gases notably nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and methane (CH 4 ). In this paper the relations between population growth, agricultural development and emissions of N 2 O and CH 4 were assessed for 10 non-Annex I countries, viz. China, India, Vietnam, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Mongolia, Nigeria, Tanzania and South Africa. We combined FAO data on agricultural production levels, CENSUS data on population statistics and EDGAR data on N 2 O and CH 4 emissions. The projected trends in agricultural production indicate that emissions of N 2 O and CH 4 are expected to increase rapidly in the coming years and will level off from 2040 onwards. The results confirm the positive relation between population increase and increased emissions from agricultural activities for most countries. However, for some countries (South Africa, China and Mexico) this relation was weak or absent. Although numerous factors (e.g. changes in international trade) may have scattered the relation and we were unable to explain this decoupling, it suggests that population growth can be possible without additional emissions. The variation between the different countries and farming systems is however large and mitigation measures at farm-level should be tailored to the wide diversity in environmental conditions, regional customs and farming systems.

  15. Population growth, movements, and status of the Nushagak Peninsula Caribou Herd following reintroduction, 1988 - 2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gail H. Collins

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available Barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus were reintroduced to the Nushagak Peninsula, Alaska in February of 1988 after an absence of more than 100 years. Since reintroduction, herd growth and population dynamics have been monitored closely. At this time, there has been no significant dispersal from the herds' core range. The Nushagak Peninsula Caribou Herd (NPCH grew rapidly from 146 reintroduced individuals to over 1000 in 13 years. Dramatic mean annual growth during the first 6 years (1988-1994 of 38% (r = 0.32 can be attributed to the high percentage of females in the initial reintroduction, high calf production and survival, exceptional range conditions, few predators, and no hunting. However, the populations' exceptional growth (peak counts of 1400 slowed and stabilized between 1996¬1998 and then decreased between 1998 and 2000. Size, body condition and weights of calves captured in 2000 were significantly lower than those captured in 1995 and 1997. Although calf production also decreased from close to 100% (1990-1995 to about 91% (1996-2000, overall calf survival continued to be high. Legal harvest began in 1995, and harvest reports have accounted for approximately 3% of population mortality annually. Although brown bears (Ursus arctos and wolves (Canis lupus are present, the extent of predation is unknown. Mean home range of the NPCH was 674 km2 and group sizes were greatest during post-calving aggregation in July (mean = 127. Caribou population density on the Nushagak Peninsula reached approximately 1.2 caribou/km2 in 1997 before declining to about 1.0 caribou/km2. A range survey in 1994 noted only trace utilization of lichens on the Nushagak Peninsula by caribou. A subsequent survey in 1999 found moderate to severe utilization in 46% of plots, suggesting the reintroduced herd was beginning to alter range condition. Between 1997 and 2000, both calf production and condition of 10-month-old calves declined. Calving has also been delayed

  16. Components and public health impact of population growth in the Arab world.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asharaf Abdul Salam

    Full Text Available The Arab world, which consists of the 22 member states of the Arab League, is undergoing a rapid transition in demographics, including fertility, mortality, and migration. Comprising a distinctive geographic region spread across West Asia and North East Africa and unified by the Arabic language, these states share common values and characteristics despite having diverse economic and political conditions. The demographic lag (high fertility and low mortality that characterizes the Arab world is unique, but the present trend of declining fertility, combined with the relatively low mortality, brings about significant changes in its population size. This research aimed to: (i assess the population growth in the Arab world over 3 time periods, (ii explore its components, and (iii understand its public health impact. Data from the International Data Base (IDB of the U.S. Census Bureau for 3 time periods (1992, 2002, and 2012 in 21 countries of the Arab world were analyzed by dividing them into four geographic sectors, namely, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC, West Asia, Maghreb, and the Nile Valley African Horn. The population of the Arab world has grown considerably due to both natural growth and migration. The immigration is pronounced, especially into resource-intensive GCC nations, not only from East Asian and Central African countries but also from resource-thrifty (limited-resource Arab nations. The migrations within, as well as outside, the Arab world reveal an interesting demographic phenomenon that requires further research: migration flows and trends. However, the transformations in public health statistics related to mortality-the impact of demographic changes-depict a new era in the Arab world.

  17. Components and public health impact of population growth in the Arab world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul Salam, Asharaf; Elsegaey, Ibrahim; Khraif, Rshood; AlMutairi, Abdullah; Aldosari, Ali

    2015-01-01

    The Arab world, which consists of the 22 member states of the Arab League, is undergoing a rapid transition in demographics, including fertility, mortality, and migration. Comprising a distinctive geographic region spread across West Asia and North East Africa and unified by the Arabic language, these states share common values and characteristics despite having diverse economic and political conditions. The demographic lag (high fertility and low mortality) that characterizes the Arab world is unique, but the present trend of declining fertility, combined with the relatively low mortality, brings about significant changes in its population size. This research aimed to: (i) assess the population growth in the Arab world over 3 time periods, (ii) explore its components, and (iii) understand its public health impact. Data from the International Data Base (IDB) of the U.S. Census Bureau for 3 time periods (1992, 2002, and 2012) in 21 countries of the Arab world were analyzed by dividing them into four geographic sectors, namely, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), West Asia, Maghreb, and the Nile Valley African Horn. The population of the Arab world has grown considerably due to both natural growth and migration. The immigration is pronounced, especially into resource-intensive GCC nations, not only from East Asian and Central African countries but also from resource-thrifty (limited-resource) Arab nations. The migrations within, as well as outside, the Arab world reveal an interesting demographic phenomenon that requires further research: migration flows and trends. However, the transformations in public health statistics related to mortality-the impact of demographic changes-depict a new era in the Arab world.

  18. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-07-01

    Full Text Available An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant population can continue to increase for a further 44 years before its target size within the enlarged park is attained.

  19. Selection for life-history traits to maximize population growth in an invasive marine species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaspers, Cornelia; Marty, Lise; Kiørboe, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    Species establishing outside their natural range, negatively impacting local ecosystems, are of increasing global concern. They often display life-history features characteristic for r-selected populations with fast growth and high reproduction rates to achieve positive population growth rates (r...

  20. Population Growth Rate: Teaching Guide. Measures of Progress Poster Kit Number 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    World Bank, Washington, DC.

    This teaching guide accompanies the Population Growth Rate poster kit which is designed to teach students about population growth differences between rich and poor nations and about what people in developing countries are doing to help improve their quality of life. The guide is designed for use with: (1) a poster map of the world providing social…

  1. Constant savings rates and quasi-arithmetic population growth under exhaustible resource constraints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asheim, G.B.; Buchholz, W.; Hartwick, J.M.; Mitra, T.; Withagen, C.A.A.M.

    2007-01-01

    In the Dasgupta–Heal–Solow–Stiglitz (DHSS) model of capital accumulation and resource depletion we show the following equivalence: if an efficient path has constant (gross and net of population growth) savings rates, then population growth must be quasi-arithmetic and the path is a maximin or a

  2. Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costa da Silva, Diego Firmino; Elhorst, J. Paul; Silveira Neto, Raul da Mota

    2017-01-01

    Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities. Regional Studies. Using Bayesian posterior model probabilities and data pertaining to 3659 Brazilian minimum comparable areas (MCAs) over the period 1970-2010, two theoretical settings of population growth dynamics resulting in

  3. Taking Exception. Reduced mortality leads to population growth: an inconvenient truth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelton, James D

    2014-05-01

    Reduced mortality has been the predominant cause of the marked global population growth over the last 3/4 of a century. While improved child survival increases motivation to reduce fertility, it comes too little and too late to forestall substantial population growth. And, beyond motivation, couples need effective means to control their fertility. It is an inconvenient truth that reducing child mortality contributes considerably to the population growth destined to compromise the quality of life of many, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Vigorous child survival programming is of course imperative. Wide access to voluntary family planning can help mitigate that growth and provide many other benefits.

  4. Differences in Townsend's chipmunk populations between second- and old-growth forests in western Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.K. Rosenberg; R.G. Anthony

    1993-01-01

    Because Townsend's chipmunks (Tomias townsendii) may be important in maintaining natural ecosystem processes in forests in the central Oregon Cascade Range, we compared their population characteristics in young second-growth and old-growth forests. We live-trapped Townsend's chipmunks in 5 young (30-60 yr old) second-growth and 5 old-...

  5. Galaxy interactions trigger rapid black hole growth: An unprecedented view from the Hyper Suprime-Cam survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goulding, Andy D.; Greene, Jenny E.; Bezanson, Rachel; Greco, Johnny; Johnson, Sean; Leauthaud, Alexie; Matsuoka, Yoshiki; Medezinski, Elinor; Price-Whelan, Adrian M.

    2018-01-01

    Collisions and interactions between gas-rich galaxies are thought to be pivotal stages in their formation and evolution, causing the rapid production of new stars, and possibly serving as a mechanism for fueling supermassive black holes (BHs). Harnessing the exquisite spatial resolution (˜0{^''.}5) afforded by the first ˜170 deg2 of the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) survey, we present our new constraints on the importance of galaxy-galaxy major mergers (1 : 4) in growing BHs throughout the last ˜8 Gyr. Utilizing mid-infrared observations in the WISE all-sky survey, we robustly select active galactic nuclei (AGN) and mass-matched control galaxy samples, totaling ˜140000 spectroscopically confirmed systems at i based on our comparison of AGN fractions in mass-matched samples, we determine that the most luminous AGN population (LAGN ≳ 1045 erg s-1) systematically reside in merging systems over non-interacting galaxies. Our findings show that galaxy-galaxy interactions do, on average, trigger luminous AGN activity substantially more often than in secularly evolving non-interacting galaxies, and we further suggest that the BH growth rate may be closely tied to the dynamical time of the merger system.

  6. Life history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations

    OpenAIRE

    Laver, Rj; Purwandana, D; Ariefiandy, A; Imansyah, J; Forsyth, D; Ciofi, C; Jessop, Ts

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture st...

  7. JOB DISCRIMINATION AGAINST WOMEN AND ENDOGENOUS POPULATION CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Wei-Bin ZHANG

    2017-01-01

    This study examines economic growth and population change with discrimination against women in the labor market within the analytical framework of Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The study models dynamic interactions between wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, children caring, and leisure, population change with endogenous birth and mortality rates with gender discrimination. The production technology and markets are built on Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The basic me...

  8. Population Growth, Available Resources, and Quality of Life: China's Post-Reform Economic Development

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tim Futing Liao; Hua Qin

    2012-01-01

    Two opposing intellectual traditions and their contem- porary developments regarding the relations among population, available resources, and quality of life as reflected in economic growth are reviewed. What is at issue is whether population growth is detrimental to or beneficial for economic development. Neither of the extreme views gives a complete picture of the interplay among population, resources, and quality of life. Following previ- ous literature on the topic, this paper establishes a more balanced approach that considers the function linking population and quality of life not constant but variable and regards the limitedness of resources as not absolute but relative to regions and societies. The proposed approach is more flexible in better explaining the relation between population and economic growth. China is examined as a case in point to shed light on the interaction of population growth, economic development, and available resources, and its recent post-economic reform experiences showcase the appropriateness of the synthetic approach.

  9. The Seneca effect why growth is slow but collapse is rapid

    CERN Document Server

    Bardi, Ugo

    2017-01-01

    The essence of this book can be found in a line written by the ancient Roman Stoic Philosopher Lucius Annaeus Seneca: "Fortune is of sluggish growth, but ruin is rapid". This sentence summarizes the features of the phenomenon that we call "collapse," which is typically sudden and often unexpected, like the proverbial "house of cards." But why are such collapses so common, and what generates them? Several books have been published on the subject, including the well-known "Collapse" by Jared Diamond (2005), "The collapse of complex societies" by Joseph Tainter (1998) and "The Tipping Point," by Malcom Gladwell (2000). Why The Seneca Effect? This book is an ambitious attempt to pull these various strands together by describing collapse from a multi-disciplinary viewpoint. The reader will discover how collapse is a collective phenomenon that occurs in what we call today "complex systems," with a special emphasis on system dynamics and t he concept of "feedback." From this foundation, Bardi applies the...

  10. Rapid Startup and Loading of an Attached Growth, Simultaneous Nitrification/Denitrification Membrane Aerated Bioreactor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Caitlin; Vega, Leticia

    2014-01-01

    The Membrane Aerated Bioreactor (MABR) is an attached-growth biological system for simultaneous nitrification and denitrification. This design is an innovative approach to common terrestrial wastewater treatments for nitrogen and carbon removal. Implementing a biologically-based water treatment system for long-duration human exploration is an attractive, low energy alternative to physiochemical processes. Two obstacles to implementing such a system are (1) the "start-up" duration from inoculation to steady-state operations and (2) the amount of surface area needed for the biological activity to occur. The Advanced Water Recovery Systems (AWRS) team at JSC explored these two issues through two tests; a rapid inoculation study and a wastewater loading study. Results from these tests demonstrate that the duration from inoculation to steady state can be reduced to two weeks and that the surface area to volume ratio baseline used in the Alternative Water Processor (AWP) test was higher than what was needed to remove the organic carbon and ammonium from the system.

  11. Biobanks in the United States: how to identify an undefined and rapidly evolving population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, Gregory J; Whipple, Warren; Cadigan, R Jean; Henderson, Gail E

    2012-12-01

    As part of a larger organizational study, we sought to survey biobanks in the United States. However, we encountered two problems with this population. First, no common definition of biobanks exists. Second, no census is available of these facilities from which to sample in order to implement a survey. In light of these problems, we employed a multifaceted approach using electronic searches of PubMed, RePORTER, and Google. In addition, we systematically searched for biobanks housed within universities that have NIH-designated Clinical and Translational Science Awards (CTSA). We expanded this part of the search by looking for biobanks among all members of the American Association of Medical Colleges (AAMC). Finally, we added banks to our database found previously by other researchers and banks found via correspondence with our colleagues. Our search strategy produced a database of 624 biobanks for which we were able to confirm contact information in order to conduct our online survey. Another 140 biobanks were identified but did not respond to our requests to confirm their existence or contact information. In order to maximize both the uniqueness of banks found and the greatest return on effort for each search, we suggest targeting resources that are already organized. In our work, these included the CTSA, AAMC, and part of the Google searches. We contend that our search provides a model for analysis of new fields of research and/or rapidly evolving industries. Furthermore, our approach demonstrates that with the appropriate tools it is possible to develop a systematic and comprehensive database to investigate undefined populations.

  12. Rapid assessment of trachoma in underserved population of Car-Nicobar Island, India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Praveen Vashist

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: To determine the burden of trachoma and its related risk factors amongst the native population of Car-Nicobar Island in India. METHODS: Rapid assessment for trachoma was conducted in ten villages of Car-Nicobar Island according to standard WHO guidelines. An average of 50 children aged 1-9 years were assessed clinically for signs of active trachoma and facial cleanliness in each village. Additionally, all adults above 15 years of age in these households were examined for evidence of trachomatous trichiasis and corneal opacity. Environmental risk factors contributing to trachoma like limited access to potable water & functional latrine, presence of animal pen and garbage within the Nicobari hut were also noted in all villages. RESULTS: Out of a total of fifteen villages in Car-Nicobar Island, ten villages were selected for trachoma survey depending on evidence of socio-developmental indicators like poverty and decreased access to water, sanitation and healthcare facilities. The total population of the selected clusters was 7277 in the ten villages. Overall, 251 of 516 children (48.6%;CI: 46.5-55.1 had evidence of follicular stage of trachoma and 11 children (2.1%;CI:1.0-3.4 had evidence of inflammatory stage of trachoma. Nearly 15%(CI:12.1-18.3 children were noted to have unclean faces in the ten villages. Trachomatous trichiasis was noted in 73 adults (1.0%;CI:0.8-1.2. The environmental sanitation was not found to be satisfactory in the surveyed villages mainly due to the co-habitance of Nicobari people with domestic animals like pigs, hens, goats, dogs, cats etc in most (96.4% of the households. CONCLUSION: Active trachoma and trachomatous trichiasis was observed in all the ten villages surveyed, wherein trachoma control measures are needed.

  13. Life-history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laver, Rebecca J; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species.

  14. Life-history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca J Laver

    Full Text Available Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis. The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species.

  15. Life-History and Spatial Determinants of Somatic Growth Dynamics in Komodo Dragon Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laver, Rebecca J.; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S.

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world’s largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species. PMID:23028983

  16. The demographic consequences of mutualism: ants increase host-plant fruit production but not population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin Ford; Joshua H. Ness; Judith L. Bronstein; William F. Morris

    2015-01-01

    The impact of mutualists on a partner’s demography depends on how they affect the partner’s multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and...

  17. The demographic consequences of mutualism: ants increase host-plant fruit production but not population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Kevin R; Ness, Joshua H; Bronstein, Judith L; Morris, William F

    2015-10-01

    The impact of mutualists on a partner's demography depends on how they affect the partner's multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and simulations of long-term population dynamics to quantify the demographic impact of a guild of ant species on the plant Ferocactus wislizeni. The ants feed at the plant's extrafloral nectaries and attack herbivores attempting to consume reproductive organs. Ant-guarded plants produced significantly more fruit, but ants had no significant effect on individual growth or survival. After integrating ant effects across these vital rates, we found that projected population growth was not significantly different between unguarded and ant-guarded plants because population growth was only weakly influenced by differences in fruit production (though strongly influenced by differences in individual growth and survival). However, simulations showed that ants could positively affect long-term plant population dynamics through services provided during rare but important events (herbivore outbreaks that reduce survival or years of high seedling recruitment associated with abundant precipitation). Thus, in this seemingly clear example of mutualism, the interaction may actually yield no clear benefit to plant population growth, or if it does, may only do so through the actions of the ants during rare events. These insights demonstrate the value of taking a demographic approach to studying the consequences of mutualism.

  18. Changes in the etiology of valvular heart disease in the rapidly aging Korean population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Shin Yi; Ju, Eun-Young; Seo, Su Ra; Choi, Ji Yeon; Park, Sung-Ji; Kim, Duk-Kyung; Park, Seung Woo

    2014-06-15

    The aim of this study is to assess the changes in the causes of valvular heart disease between 2006 and 2011 in Korea. Data were collected from the Korean National Health Insurance Service from 2006 through 2011. These data consisted of primary diagnoses related to valvular heart disease regardless of other conditions. Valvular heart disease included non-rheumatic mitral valve disorders, non-rheumatic aortic valve disorders, rheumatic mitral valve disorders, and rheumatic aortic valve disorders. Overall, the age-standardized cumulative prevalence of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease was 70.6 per 100,000 persons in 2006 and 110.3 in 2011. This represented an increase from 42.2 to 65.2 in women and from 28.4 to 45.1 in men. In particular, there was a greater increase in prevalence in patients aged 65 years or older compared with groups aged 20-44 years or 45-64 years for both genders. The age-standardized cumulative prevalence of rheumatic valve disease did not change dramatically between 2006 and 2011. The overall age-standardized cumulative prevalence of non-rheumatic valvular heart diseases increased between 2006 and 2011, especially in individuals older than 65 years. These changes should be considered in future designs of cardiovascular healthcare services in countries with a rapidly aging population. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Rapid assessment of populations trends of invasive species: Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DANA, ED

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA is a powerful analytical approach for biodi-versity management. Its main advan-tages are due to its intuitive processing and visualization, since mathematical workflow is conceptually similar to the widely accepted Principal Components Analysis. Detailed analyses of popula-tion trends with mathematical tools are often difficult to achieve for managers by a number of reasons (large numbers or areas monitored, large number of species, insufficient statistics skills, strong knowledge level in demographic analyses, etc.. SSA has been used since the 1970’s in signal processing to clarify signal vs. noisy information, but it has also been used in climate change analy-sis and other developmental areas. Be-sides, SSA is a rapid-learning method for technicians and managers with medium level of mathematical knowledge. Free software in Unix environment is avail-able. Unfortunately, no free and friendly software is available for Win-dows SO. Although R package may offer solutions for really advanced users, it does not fit real work situations for managers of biological invasions. Cater-pillar (Gistat Group, Ltd is by now, the best option found by the author in terms of price, facility for results inter-pretation and time consumed in learn-ing. The main disadvantage is the poor content of tutorial files

  20. Regulatory design governing progression of population growth phases in bacteria.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agustino Martínez-Antonio

    Full Text Available It has long been noted that batch cultures inoculated with resting bacteria exhibit a progression of growth phases traditionally labeled lag, exponential, pre-stationary and stationary. However, a detailed molecular description of the mechanisms controlling the transitions between these phases is lacking. A core circuit, formed by a subset of regulatory interactions involving five global transcription factors (FIS, HNS, IHF, RpoS and GadX, has been identified by correlating information from the well- established transcriptional regulatory network of Escherichia coli and genome-wide expression data from cultures in these different growth phases. We propose a functional role for this circuit in controlling progression through these phases. Two alternative hypotheses for controlling the transition between the growth phases are first, a continuous graded adjustment to changing environmental conditions, and second, a discontinuous hysteretic switch at critical thresholds between growth phases. We formulate a simple mathematical model of the core circuit, consisting of differential equations based on the power-law formalism, and show by mathematical and computer-assisted analysis that there are critical conditions among the parameters of the model that can lead to hysteretic switch behavior, which--if validated experimentally--would suggest that the transitions between different growth phases might be analogous to cellular differentiation. Based on these provocative results, we propose experiments to test the alternative hypotheses.

  1. Regulatory design governing progression of population growth phases in bacteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Antonio, Agustino; Lomnitz, Jason G; Sandoval, Santiago; Aldana, Maximino; Savageau, Michael A

    2012-01-01

    It has long been noted that batch cultures inoculated with resting bacteria exhibit a progression of growth phases traditionally labeled lag, exponential, pre-stationary and stationary. However, a detailed molecular description of the mechanisms controlling the transitions between these phases is lacking. A core circuit, formed by a subset of regulatory interactions involving five global transcription factors (FIS, HNS, IHF, RpoS and GadX), has been identified by correlating information from the well- established transcriptional regulatory network of Escherichia coli and genome-wide expression data from cultures in these different growth phases. We propose a functional role for this circuit in controlling progression through these phases. Two alternative hypotheses for controlling the transition between the growth phases are first, a continuous graded adjustment to changing environmental conditions, and second, a discontinuous hysteretic switch at critical thresholds between growth phases. We formulate a simple mathematical model of the core circuit, consisting of differential equations based on the power-law formalism, and show by mathematical and computer-assisted analysis that there are critical conditions among the parameters of the model that can lead to hysteretic switch behavior, which--if validated experimentally--would suggest that the transitions between different growth phases might be analogous to cellular differentiation. Based on these provocative results, we propose experiments to test the alternative hypotheses.

  2. Nutrient foraging strategies are associated with productivity and population growth in forest shrubs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Bram W. G.; Faillace, Cara A.; Lafond, Jonathan J.; Baumgarten, Joni M.; Mozdzer, Thomas J.; Dighton, John; Meiners, Scott J.; Grabosky, Jason C.; Ehrenfeld, Joan G.

    2017-01-01

    Background and Aims Temperate deciduous forest understoreys are experiencing widespread changes in community composition, concurrent with increases in rates of nitrogen supply. These shifts in plant abundance may be driven by interspecific differences in nutrient foraging (i.e. conservative vs. acquisitive strategies) and, thus, adaptation to contemporary nutrient loading conditions. This study sought to determine if interspecific differences in nutrient foraging could help explain patterns of shrub success and decline in eastern North American forests. Methods Using plants grown in a common garden, fine root traits associated with nutrient foraging were measured for six shrub species. Traits included the mean and skewness of the root diameter distribution, specific root length (SRL), C:N ratio, root tissue density, arbuscular mycorrhizal colonization and foraging precision. Above- and below-ground productivity were also determined for the same plants, and population growth rates were estimated using data from a long-term study of community dynamics. Root traits were compared among species and associations among root traits, measures of productivity and rates of population growth were evaluated. Key Results Species fell into groups having thick or thin root forms, which correspond to conservative vs. acquisitive nutrient foraging strategies. Interspecific variation in root morphology and tissue construction correlated with measures of productivity and rates of cover expansion. Of the four species with acquisitive traits, three were introduced species that have become invasive in recent decades, and the fourth was a weedy native. In contrast, the two species with conservative traits were historically dominant shrubs that have declined in abundance in eastern North American forests. Conclusions In forest understoreys of eastern North America, elevated nutrient availability may impose a filter on species success in addition to above-ground processes such as herbivory

  3. Plant Growth and Development: An Outline for a Unit Structured Around the Life Cycle of Rapid-Cycling Brassica Rapa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Wayne M.

    This outline is intended for use in a unit of 10-12 lectures on plant growth and development at the introductory undergraduate level as part of a course on organismal biology. The series of lecture outlines is structured around the life cycle of rapid-cycling Brassica rapa (RCBr). The unit begins with three introductory lectures on general plant…

  4. Growth in Rapid Automatized Naming from Grades K to 8 in Children with Math or Reading Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzocco, Michèle M. M.; Grimm, Kevin J.

    2013-01-01

    Rapid automatized naming (RAN) is widely used to identify reading disabilities (RD) and has recently been considered a potential predictor of risk for mathematics learning disabilities (MLD). Here we longitudinally examine RAN performance from Grades K to 8, to view how growth on RAN response time differs for children with RD versus MLD. Across…

  5. Population size, survival, growth, and movements of Rana sierrae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fellers, Gary M.; Kleeman, Patrick M.; Miller, David A. W.; Halstead, Brian J.; Link, William

    2013-01-01

    Based on 2431 captures of 757 individual frogs over a 9-yr period, we found that the population of R. sierrae in one meadow–stream complex in Yosemite National Park ranged from an estimated 45 to 115 adult frogs. Rana sierrae at our relatively low elevation site (2200 m) grew at a fast rate (K = 0.73–0.78), had high overwintering survival rates (44.6–95%), lived a long time (up to 16 yr), and tended to be fairly sedentary during the summer (100% minimum convex polygon annual home ranges of 139 m2) but had low year-to-year site fidelity. Even though the amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd) has been present in the population for at least 13 yr, there was no clear downward trend as might be expected from reports of R. sierrae population declines associated with Bd or from reports of widespread population decline of R. sierrae throughout its range.

  6. Modeling the growth of individuals in plant populations: local density variation in a strand population of Xanthium strumarium (Asteraceae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiner, J; Kinsman, S; Williams, S

    1998-11-01

    We studied the growth of individual Xanthium strumarium plants growing at four naturally occurring local densities on a beach in Maine: (1) isolated plants, (2) pairs of plants ≤1 cm apart, (3) four plants within 4 cm of each other, and (4) discrete dense clumps of 10-39 plants. A combination of nondestructive measurements every 2 wk and parallel calibration harvests provided very good estimates of the growth in aboveground biomass of over 400 individual plants over 8 wk and afforded the opportunity to fit explicit growth models to 293 of them. There was large individual variation in growth and resultant size within the population and within all densities. Local crowding played a role in determining plant size within the population: there were significant differences in final size between all densities except pairs and quadruples, which were almost identical. Overall, plants growing at higher densities were more variable in growth and final size than plants growing at lower densities, but this was due to increased variation among groups (greater variation in local density and/or greater environmental heterogeneity), not to increased variation within groups. Thus, there was no evidence of size asymmetric competition in this population. The growth of most plants was close to exponential over the study period, but half the plants were slightly better fit by a sigmoidal (logistic) model. The proportion of plants better fit by the logistic model increased with density and with initial plant size. The use of explicit growth models over several growth intervals to describe stand development can provide more biological content and more statistical power than "growth-size" methods that analyze growth intervals separately.

  7. Some socio-economic aspects of population growth in the USSR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simchera, V

    1974-01-01

    This summarizes population trends in the U.S.S.R. since the early 19 00's. On August 9, 1973, the population topped 250 million, almost precisely double that of Russia at the time of the 1st general census in 1897. Since 1922 it had increased by more than 84%. Russia has suffered more population loss in wars than any other country in modern times. The First World War, the Civil War, and the Second World War took a toll of more than 30 million, more than 20 million during the Second World War alone. The extent of these loses can be judged from the following: between 1897 and 1913 the population of Russia increased at the rate of 1.55% per annum or 34.6 million; if this had continued the population would have been at least 182.8 million by the end of 1922. As it was, the population was 136.1 million by 1922 and the hypothetical 182.8 million was not reached until 1952. More than 4/5 of today's population have been born since the October Revolution. Only 43 million were born before the revolution and only 7.5 were born in the last century. The economic base has grown much more rapidly than the population. For the period 1940-1972 the population increased 1.27 times, national income 9.51 times, fixed assets, 8.76 times, industrial production, 13.65 times, agricultural output, 2.14 times, and capital investment 14.52 times. The birthrate has been falling since World War 1 but total population growth has increased steadily. Birthrates have declined from 45.5/1000 in 1913 to 17.8/1000 in 1972 and a slight upturn is seen. It is expected that the birthrate will continue to increase slightly, then stabilize. Much of the population increase has come from significantly reduced mortality rates. 1st and 2nd children now account for 71% of all births. Family allowances, child care, free health care, and other social benefits encourage births while high employment levels for women, a shortage of men in the marriageable age ranges, and late marriages tend to depress the birthrate

  8. Modelling breast cancer tumour growth for a stable disease population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isheden, Gabriel; Humphreys, Keith

    2017-01-01

    Statistical models of breast cancer tumour progression have been used to further our knowledge of the natural history of breast cancer, to evaluate mammography screening in terms of mortality, to estimate overdiagnosis, and to estimate the impact of lead-time bias when comparing survival times between screen detected cancers and cancers found outside of screening programs. Multi-state Markov models have been widely used, but several research groups have proposed other modelling frameworks based on specifying an underlying biological continuous tumour growth process. These continuous models offer some advantages over multi-state models and have been used, for example, to quantify screening sensitivity in terms of mammographic density, and to quantify the effect of body size covariates on tumour growth and time to symptomatic detection. As of yet, however, the continuous tumour growth models are not sufficiently developed and require extensive computing to obtain parameter estimates. In this article, we provide a detailed description of the underlying assumptions of the continuous tumour growth model, derive new theoretical results for the model, and show how these results may help the development of this modelling framework. In illustrating the approach, we develop a model for mammography screening sensitivity, using a sample of 1901 post-menopausal women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer.

  9. The rapid growth of domestic oil consumption in Saudi Arabia and the opportunity cost of oil exports foregone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gately, Dermot; Al-Yousef, Nourah; Al-Sheikh, Hamad M.H.

    2012-01-01

    We analyze the rapid growth of Saudi Arabia's domestic oil consumption, a nine-fold increase in 40 years, to nearly 3 million barrels per day, about one-fourth of production. Such rapid growth in consumption – 5.7% annually, which is 37% faster than its income growth of 4.2% – will challenge Saudi Arabia's ability to increase its oil exports, which are relied upon in long-term world oil projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA), US Department of Energy (DOE) and British Petroleum (BP). However, these institutions assume unprecedented slowdowns in Saudi oil consumption – from 5.7% annual growth historically to less than 2% in the future – allowing them to project increases in Saudi oil exports. Using 1971–2010 data, we estimate that the income responsiveness (elasticity) of oil consumption is at least 1.5—using both Ordinary Least Squares regression and Cointegration methods. We believe that continued high growth rates for domestic oil consumption are more likely than the dramatic slowdowns projected by IEA, DOE and BP. This will have major implications for Saudi production and export levels. - Highlights: ► We analyze the rapid growth of Saudi Arabia's domestic oil consumption, now one-fourth of production. ► Estimated income elasticity of oil demand at least 1.5, using OLS and Co-integration. ► Yet IEA, DOE and BP project unprecedented slowdowns, from 5.7% historically to below 2%, half the rate of income growth. ► Continued high growth rates are more likely, with major implications for Saudi production and export levels.

  10. Do Class III patients have a different growth spurt than the general population?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yun-Sik; Lee, Shin-Jae; An, Hongseok; Donatelli, Richard E; Kim, Soo-Hwan

    2012-11-01

    Understanding the timing and length of the growth spurt of Class III prognathic patients is fundamental to the strategy of interceptive orthopedic orthodontics as well as to the timing of orthognathic surgery. Consequently, this study was undertaken to determine whether there are any significant differences in the stature growth pattern of Class III subjects compared with non-Class III subjects and the general population. Twelve-year longitudinal stature growth data were collected for 402 randomly selected adolescents in the general population, 55 Class III mandibular prognathic patients, and 37 non-Class III patients. The growth data were analyzed by using the traditional linear interpolation method and nonlinear growth functions. The 6 stature growth parameters were measured: age at takeoff, stature at takeoff, velocity at takeoff, age at peak height velocity, stature at peak height velocity, and velocity at peak height velocity. Comparisons in the stature growth parameters and 15 cephalometric variables among the general population, Class III subjects, and non-Class III subjects were made with multivariate analysis. Patients with Class III prognathism did not have different growth parameters compared with Class II subjects or the general population. This study does not allow meaningful conclusions with regard to the relationship of mandibular size and stature growth pattern. The application of nonlinear growth curves vs the traditional linear interpolation method was also discussed. Copyright © 2012 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Insulin receptors mediate growth effects in cultured fetal neurons. I. Rapid stimulation of protein synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heidenreich, K.A.; Toledo, S.P.

    1989-01-01

    In this study we have examined the effects of insulin on protein synthesis in cultured fetal chick neurons. Protein synthesis was monitored by measuring the incorporation of [3H]leucine (3H-leu) into trichloroacetic acid (TCA)-precipitable protein. Upon addition of 3H-leu, there was a 5-min lag before radioactivity occurred in protein. During this period cell-associated radioactivity reached equilibrium and was totally recovered in the TCA-soluble fraction. After 5 min, the incorporation of 3H-leu into protein was linear for 2 h and was inhibited (98%) by the inclusion of 10 micrograms/ml cycloheximide. After 24 h of serum deprivation, insulin increased 3H-leu incorporation into protein by approximately 2-fold. The stimulation of protein synthesis by insulin was dose dependent (ED50 = 70 pM) and seen within 30 min. Proinsulin was approximately 10-fold less potent than insulin on a molar basis in stimulating neuronal protein synthesis. Insulin had no effect on the TCA-soluble fraction of 3H-leu at any time and did not influence the uptake of [3H]aminoisobutyric acid into neurons. The isotope ratio of 3H-leu/14C-leu in the leucyl tRNA pool was the same in control and insulin-treated neurons. Analysis of newly synthesized proteins by sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis revealed that insulin uniformly increased the incorporation of 14C-leu into all of the resolved neuronal proteins. We conclude from these data that (1) insulin rapidly stimulates overall protein synthesis in fetal neurons independent of amino acid uptake and aminoacyl tRNA precursor pools; (2) stimulation of protein synthesis is mediated by the brain subtype of insulin receptor; and (3) insulin is potentially an important in vivo growth factor for fetal central nervous system neurons

  12. Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.; Veblen, Thomas T; Smith, Jeremy M.; Kueppers, Lara M.

    2017-01-01

    Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively.Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers.Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forest and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine.Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.

  13. Rapid economic growth leads to boost in NO2 pollution over India, as seen from space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilboll, Andreas; Richter, Andreas; Burrows, John P.

    2016-04-01

    Over the past decades, the Indian economy has been growing at an exceptional pace. This growth was induced and accompanied by a strong increase of the Indian population. Consequently, traffic, electricity consumption, and industrial production have soared over the past decades, leading to a strong increase in fuel consumption and thus pollutant emissions. Nitrogen oxides (NO+NO2) are a major component of anthropogenic air pollution, playing key part in reaction cycles leading to the formation of tropospheric ozone. They are mainly emitted by the combustion of fossil fuels; other sources include production by lightning, biomass burning, and microbial activity in soils. Since the mid-1990s, space-borne measurements of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) have been conducted by the GOME, SCIAMACHY, GOME-2, and OMI instruments. These instruments perform hyperspectral measurements of scattered and reflected sunlight. Their measurements are then analyzed using differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) to yield vertically integrated columnar trace gas abundances. Here, we will present the results of 20 years of NO2 measurements over the Indian subcontinent. After showing the spatial distribution of NO2 pollution over India, we will present time series for individual states and urban agglomerations. These time series will then be related to various indicators of economic development. Finally, we will highlight several instances where single industrial pollution sources and their development can clearly be identified from the NO2 maps and estimate their NO2 emissions.

  14. Differential equilibration and intergranular diffusion of trace elements during rapid regional metamorphism: constraints from LA-ICP-MS mapping of a garnet population

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, F. R.; Gaidies, F.

    2017-12-01

    Trace element zoning contained within a metapelitic garnet population yields information pertaining to a more complex prograde reaction history than is evident in major element zoning patterns and other conventional analyses. In particular, while trace elements may not act as a rate-limiting component for garnet crystallization, their incorporation into garnet growth surfaces provides a nuanced insight into the crystallization history of the population, and the extent of equilibration of trace elements in the matrix. In this study, we present LA-ICP-MS raster maps of trace element concentrations from several population-representative, centrally sectioned garnets from a garnet-grade metapelite of the Sikkim Himalaya, India. Equilibrium forward modeling of garnet crystallization and simulation of diffusional modification indicates that the garnet population crystallized rapidly over <1 Myr between 515 °C/4.5 kbar and 565 °C/5.5 kbar, as a consequence of high heating rates during regional amphibolite-facies metamorphism. While the rate of diffusional homogenization of major divalent cations is interpreted to have exceeded the rate of interfacial advance (yielding simple prograde growth zoning), trace element distributions record a more complex transport history. In particular, yttrium and the heavy rare earth elements (HREE) document a transition from an overprinted sigmoidal core to concentric repeated HREE and yttrium annuli in all crystals. This suggests that there was a discrete increase in the length scale of equilibration along the advancing garnet interface at some point in the growth history. However, there is no evidence for a coeval change in HREE transport thorough the intergranular network. Conversely, spiral core-to-rim zoning of chromium indicates the element remains almost completely immobile in the matrix over the duration of garnet growth.

  15. When evolution is the solution to pollution: Key principles, and lessons from rapid repeated adaptation of killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    For most species, evolutionary adaptation is not expected to be sufficiently rapid to buffer the effects of human-mediated environmental changes. Yet large persistent populations of small bodied fish residing in some of the most contaminated estuaries of the US have provided some...

  16. Mortality risks and limits to population growth of fishers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rick A. Sweitzer; Viorel D. Popescu; Craig M. Thompson; Kathryn L. Purcell; Reginald H. Barrett; Greta M. Wengert; Mourad W. Gabriel; Leslie W. Woods

    2015-01-01

    Fishers (Pekania pennanti) in the west coast states of Washington, Oregon, and California, USA have not recovered from population declines and the United States Fish and Wildlife Service has proposed options for listing them as threatened. Our objectives were to evaluate differences in survival and mortality risk from natural (e.g., predation, disease, injuries,...

  17. Population structure and growth of polydorid polychaetes that infest ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Polydorid polychaetes can infest cultured abalone thereby reducing productivity. In order to effectively control these pests, their reproductive biology must be understood. The population dynamics and reproduction of polydorids infesting abalone Haliotis midae from two farms in South Africa is described using a ...

  18. Population growth, urban expansion, and private forestry in western Oregon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey D. Kline; David L. Azuma; Ralph J. Alig

    2004-01-01

    Private forestlands in the United States face increasing pressures from growing populations, resulting in greater numbers of people living in closer proximity to forests. What often is called the "wildland/urban interface" is characterized by expansion of residential and other developed land uses onto forested landscapes in a manner that threatens forestlands...

  19. Current and Future Dynamics of the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker Population Inhabiting the Savannah River National Environmental Research Park: Managing For Population Growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walters, J.R.; Taylor, T.B.; Daniels, S.J.; Crowder, L.B.; Pridd, J.A.

    2001-01-01

    Research aimed to study the dynamics of the SRS population of Red-Cockaded woodpecker and compare to those of other populations to identify factors limiting population growth; recruitment clusters were evaluated to determine what properties of individual cavity trees, surrounding habitat and the surrounding landscape might limit occupancy through natural dispersal. A spatial simulation model was used to project expected dispersal rates and population growth under current conditions and compare those estimates to observed dispersal and population growth. Red cockaded woodpecker populations at SRS are stable considering size. Research reveals that closer placement of recruitment clusters to active territories would produce higher growth rates while decreasing management intensity

  20. Current and Future Dynamics of the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker Population Inhabiting the Savannah River National Environmental Research Park: Managing For Population Growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walters, J.R.; Taylor, T.B.; Daniels, S.J.; Crowder, L.B.; Pridd, J.A.

    2001-01-01

    Research aimed to study the dynamics of the SRS population of Red-Cockaded woodpecker and compare to those of other populations to identify factors limiting population growth; recruitment clusters were evaluated to determine what properties of individual cavity trees, surrounding habitat and the surrounding landscape might limit occupancy through natural dispersal. A spatial simulation model was used to project expected dispersal rates and population growth under current conditions and compare those estimates to observed dispersal and population growth. Red cockaded woodpecker populations at SRS are stable considering size. Research reveals that closer placement of recruitment clusters to active territories would produce higher growth rates while decreasing management intensity.

  1. [Population development and economic growth. A simulation analysis for Switzerland].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, C; Straubhaar, T

    1996-01-01

    "A simulation exercise of a general equilibrium model for Switzerland makes clear that the macroeconomic impacts of aging populations are not very strong. There is no need for urgent policy actions to avoid severe negative economic consequences....However, the aging of population affects negatively the net income of the active labor force. An increasing share of their gross salaries goes to the retirement system to finance the pension payments of a growing number of pensioners. Attempts to moderate the elderly dependency ratio would lower this burden for the active labor force. Options are an increase of the female participation rate, an increase of the labor participation rate of the elderly--[which] also means a higher retirement age--and an increasing flow of immigrants. But socioeconomic problems might probably generate practical limits on the extent to which immigration can be increased." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE) excerpt

  2. A tale of three regions : influence of highway investments on population and traffic growth in Virginia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    To what extent may highway investments shape population growth and land development? To answer this question, three decades of data were examined in the Virginia locations of Fairfax County, Spotsylvania County, and Newport News. In each location, a ...

  3. Mitochondrial DNA signature for range-wide populations of Bicyclus anynana suggests a rapid expansion from recent refugia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maaike A de Jong

    Full Text Available This study investigates the genetic diversity, population structure and demographic history of the afrotropical butterfly Bicyclus anynana using mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA. Samples from six wild populations covering most of the species range from Uganda to South Africa were compared for the cytochrome c oxidase subunit gene (COI. Molecular diversity indices show overall high mtDNA diversity for the populations, but low nucleotide divergence between haplotypes. Our results indicate relatively little geographic population structure among the southern populations, especially given the extensive distributional range and an expectation of limited gene flow between populations. We implemented neutrality tests to assess signatures of recent historical demographic events. Tajima's D test and Fu's F(S test both suggested recent population growth for the populations. The results were only significant for the southernmost populations when applying Tajima's D, but Fu's F(S indicated significant deviations from neutrality for all populations except the one closest to the equator. Based on our own findings and those from pollen and vegetation studies, we hypothesize that the species range of B. anynana was reduced to equatorial refugia during the last glacial period, and that the species expanded southwards during the past 10.000 years. These results provide crucial background information for studies of phenotypic and molecular adaptation in wild populations of B. anynana.

  4. Population structure, growth and production of a recent brachiopod from the Chilean fjord region

    KAUST Repository

    Baumgarten, Sebastian; Laudien, Jü rgen; Jantzen, Carin; Hä ussermann, Verena; Fö rsterra, Gü nter

    2013-01-01

    -57% of that of A. atra in the respective fjords). The high shell growth rate of M. venosa, together with its high overall growth performance may explain the locally high population density of this brachiopod in Comau Fjord. However, the production per biomass

  5. Social Security Reform and Population Ageing in a Two-Sector Growth Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Groezen, B.J.A.M.; Meijdam, A.C.; Verbon, H.A.A.

    2002-01-01

    This paper analyses the effects of reducing unfunded social security and population ageing on economic growth and welfare, both for a small open economy and for a closed economy.The economy consists of a service sector and a commodity sector.Productivity growth only occurs in the latter sector and

  6. Social security reform and population ageing in a two-sector growth model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groezen, Bas van; Meijdam, L.; Verbon, H.

    2002-01-01

    This paper analyses the e¤ects of reducing unfunded social security and population ageing on economic growth and welfare, both for a small open economy and for a closed economy. The economy consists of a service sector and a commodity sector. Productivity growth only occurs in the latter sector

  7. Population studies of echinoderms and growth and mortality of sea cucumbers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebert, T.A.

    1979-01-01

    Progress is reported on the following studies: methods of collecting sea cucumbers; determination of growth rates of plates of the calcareous ring; use of growth parameters and a length-frequency distribution to estimate mortality and population turnover; movement of materials through the atoll ecosystem; and autoradiographic studies on spines of sea urchins

  8. Do social grants contribute to the jobless population growth in the former South African homelands?

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Geyer, H

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available migration. A possible reason could be the high level of dependency on social grants in the former homelands. The article analyses population growth rates, economic growth rates and the ratio of social grant recipients within former homeland settlements...

  9. Lion (Panthera leo) populations are declining rapidly across Africa, except in intensively managed areas

    OpenAIRE

    Bauer, Hans; Chapron, Guillaume; Nowell, Kristin; Henschel, Philipp; Funston, Paul; Hunter, Luke T. B.; Macdonald, David W.; Packer, Craig

    2015-01-01

    At a regional scale, lion populations in West, Central, and East Africa are likely to suffer a projected 50% decline over the next two decades, whereas lion populations are only increasing in southern Africa. Many lion populations are either now gone or expected to disappear within the next few decades to the extent that the intensively managed populations in southern Africa may soon supersede the iconic savannah landscapes in East Africa as the most successful sites for lion conservation. Th...

  10. Catch-up growth following fetal growth restriction promotes rapid restoration of fat mass but without metabolic consequences at one year of age.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques Beltrand

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Fetal growth restriction (FGR followed by rapid weight gain during early life has been suggested to be the initial sequence promoting central adiposity and insulin resistance. However, the link between fetal and early postnatal growth and the associated anthropometric and metabolic changes have been poorly studied. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Over the first year of post-natal life, changes in body mass index, skinfold thickness and hormonal concentrations were prospectively monitored in 94 infants in whom the fetal growth velocity had previously been measured using a repeated standardized procedure of ultrasound fetal measurements. 45 infants, thinner at birth, had experienced previous FGR (FGR+ regardless of birth weight. Growth pattern in the first four months of life was characterized by greater change in BMI z-score in FGR+ (+1.26+/-1.2 vs +0.58 +/-1.17 SD in FGR- resulting in the restoration of BMI and of fat mass to values similar to FGR-, independently of caloric intakes. Growth velocity after 4 months was similar and BMI z-score and fat mass remained similar at 12 months of age. At both time-points, fetal growth velocity was an independent predictor of fat mass in FGR+. At one year, fasting insulin levels were not different but leptin was significantly higher in the FGR+ (4.43+/-1.41 vs 2.63+/-1 ng/ml in FGR-. CONCLUSION: Early catch-up growth is related to the fetal growth pattern itself, irrespective of birth weight, and is associated with higher insulin sensitivity and lower leptin levels after birth. Catch-up growth promotes the restoration of body size and fat stores without detrimental consequences at one year of age on body composition or metabolic profile. The higher leptin concentration at one year may reflect a positive energy balance in children who previously faced fetal growth restriction.

  11. Rapid Economic Growth and Natural Gas Consumption Nexus: Looking forward from Perspective of 11th Malaysian Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekhet, H. A.; Yasmin, T.

    2016-03-01

    The present study investigates the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption by incorporating CO2 emissions, natural gas consumption and population in Malaysia. Annual data and F-bound test and granger causality have applied to test the existence of long run relationship between the series. The results show that variables are cointegrated for long run relationship. The results also indicate that natural gas consumption is an important contributing factor to energy demand and hence economic growth in case of Malaysia. The causality analysis highlights that the feedback hypothesis exists between economic growth and energy consumption. While, conservative hypothesis is validated between natural gas consumption and economic growth which implies that economic growth will push natural gas consumption policies in future. This study opens up new direction for policy makers to formulate a comprehensive natural gas policy to sustain environment for long span of time in case to achieve 11th MP targets.

  12. Patterns of growth and body condition in sea otters from the Aleutian archipelago before and after the recent population decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laidre, K.L.; Estes, J.A.; Tinker, M.T.; Bodkin, James L.; Monson, Daniel H.; Schneider, K.

    2006-01-01

    1. Growth models for body mass and length were fitted to data collected from 1842 sea otters Enhydra lutris shot or live-captured throughout south-west Alaska between 1967 and 2004. Growth curves were constructed for each of two main year groups: 1967–71 when the population was at or near carrying capacity and 1992–97 when the population was in steep decline. Analyses of data collected from animals caught during 2004, when the population density was very low, were precluded by a small sample size and consequently only examined incidentally to the main growth curves.2. Growth curves demonstrated a significant increase in body mass and body length at age in the 1990s. Asymptotic values of body mass were 12–18% higher in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s, and asymptotic values for body length were 10–11% higher between the same periods. Data collected in 2004 suggest a continued increase in body size, with nearly all data points for mass and length falling significantly above the 1990s growth curves.3. In addition to larger asymptotic values for mass and length, the rate of growth towards asymptotic values was more rapid in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s: sea otters reached 95% of asymptotic body mass and body length 1–2 years earlier in the 1990s.4. Body condition (as measured by the log mass/log length ratio) was significantly greater in males than in females. There was also an increasing trend from the 1960s/70s through 2004 despite much year-to-year variation.5. Population age structures differed significantly between the 1960s/70s and the 1990s with the latter distribution skewed toward younger age classes (indicating an altered lxfunction) suggesting almost complete relaxation of age-dependent mortality patterns (i.e. those typical of food-limited populations).6. This study spanned a period of time over which the population status of sea otters in the Aleutian archipelago declined precipitously from levels at or near equilibrium densities at

  13. "Peer Review: Nonroad (NR) Updates to Population Growth, Compression Ignition (CI) Criteria, Toxic Emission Factors and Speciation Profiles"

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report focuses on the methodology for estimating growth in NR engine populations as used in the MOVES201X-NONROAD emission inventory model. MOVES NR growth rates start with base year engine populations and estimate growth in the populations of NR engines, while applying cons...

  14. Research on water hammer forces caused by rapid growth of bubbles at severe accidents of water cooled reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inasaka, Fujio; Adachi, Masaki; Aya, Izuo

    2004-01-01

    At severe accidents of Water Cooled Reactors a great deal of gas is expected to be produced in a short time within the water of lower part of nuclear pressure vessel and containment vessel caused by hydrogen production with a metal water reaction and steam explosions with direct contact of melting core and water. Water hammer forces caused by rapid growth of bubbles shall work on the wall of containment vessel and affect its integrity. Coherency of water block movement is not clear, whether simultaneous or in the same direction. Water block behavior and water hammer forces caused by rapid growth of bubbles have been tested using a modified scale model and analyzed to obtain experimental correlated equation to estimate water block's rising distance and velocity from water hammer data. Numerical analysis using RELAP5-3D (Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program) has been conducted to evaluate water hammer forces and makes clear its modifications needed. (T. Tanaka)

  15. The between-population genetic architecture of growth, maturation, and plasticity in Atlantic salmon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debes, Paul Vincent; Fraser, Dylan John; Yates, Matthew; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

    2014-04-01

    The between-population genetic architecture for growth and maturation has not been examined in detail for many animal species despite its central importance in understanding hybrid fitness. We studied the genetic architecture of population divergence in: (i) maturation probabilities at the same age; (ii) size at age and growth, while accounting for maturity status and sex; and (iii) growth plasticity in response to environmental factors, using divergent wild and domesticated Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Our work examined two populations and their multigenerational hybrids in a common experimental arrangement in which salinity and quantity of suspended sediments were manipulated to mimic naturally occurring environmental variation. Average specific growth rates across environments differed among crosses, maturity groups, and cross-by-maturity groups, but a growth-rate reduction in the presence of suspended sediments was equal for all groups. Our results revealed both additive and nonadditive outbreeding effects for size at age and for growth rates that differed with life stage, as well as the presence of different sex- and size-specific maturation probabilities between populations. The major implication of our work is that estimates of the genetic architecture of growth and maturation can be biased if one does not simultaneously account for temporal changes in growth and for different maturation probabilities between populations. Namely, these correlated traits interact differently within each population and between sexes and among generations, due to nonadditive effects and a level of independence in the genetic control for traits. Our results emphasize the challenges to investigating and predicting phenotypic changes resulting from between-population outbreeding.

  16. Individual growth and reproductive behavior in a newly established population of northern snakehead (Channa argus), Potomac River, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Andrew M. Gascho; Lapointe, Nicolas W. R.; Angermeier, Paul L.

    2010-01-01

    Northern snakehead (Channa argus) were first found in the Potomac River in 2004. In 2007, we documented feeding and reproductive behavior to better understand how this species is performing in this novel environment. From April to October, we used electrofishing surveys to collect data on growth, condition, and gonad weight of adult fish. Growth rates of young were measured on a daily basis for several weeks. Mean length-at-age for Potomac River northern snakehead was lower than for fish from China, Russia, and Uzbekistan. Fish condition was above average during spring and fall, but below average in summer. Below-average condition corresponded to periods of high spawning activity. Gonadosomatic index indicated that females began spawning at the end of April and continued through August. Peak spawning occurred at the beginning of June when average temperatures reached 26°C. Larval fish growth rate, after the transition to exogenous feeding, was 2.3 (SD ± 0.7) mm (total length, TL) per day. Although Potomac River northern snakehead exhibited lower overall growth rates when compared to other populations, these fish demonstrated plasticity in timing of reproduction and rapid larval growth rates. Such life history characteristics likely contribute to the success of northern snakehead in its new environment and limit managers’ options for significant control of its invasion.

  17. Population growth of Mexican free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana predates human agricultural activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cox Murray P

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Human activities, such as agriculture, hunting, and habitat modification, exert a significant effect on native species. Although many species have suffered population declines, increased population fragmentation, or even extinction in connection with these human impacts, others seem to have benefitted from human modification of their habitat. Here we examine whether population growth in an insectivorous bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana can be attributed to the widespread expansion of agriculture in North America following European settlement. Colonies of T. b. mexicana are extremely large (~106 individuals and, in the modern era, major agricultural insect pests form an important component of their food resource. It is thus hypothesized that the growth of these insectivorous bat populations was coupled to the expansion of agricultural land use in North America over the last few centuries. Results We sequenced one haploid and one autosomal locus to determine the rate and time of onset of population growth in T. b. mexicana. Using an approximate Maximum Likelihood method, we have determined that T. b. mexicana populations began to grow ~220 kya from a relatively small ancestral effective population size before reaching the large effective population size observed today. Conclusions Our analyses reject the hypothesis that T. b. mexicana populations grew in connection with the expansion of human agriculture in North America, and instead suggest that this growth commenced long before the arrival of humans. As T. brasiliensis is a subtropical species, we hypothesize that the observed signals of population growth may instead reflect range expansions of ancestral bat populations from southern glacial refugia during the tail end of the Pleistocene.

  18. Food security in the face of climate change, population growth, and resource constraints: implications for Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faisal, Islam M; Parveen, Saila

    2004-10-01

    Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO2 fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm3, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.

  19. Studies of Health and Long-Term Care Expenditure Growth in Aging Populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.A.M. de Meijer (Claudine)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractIn recent decades, elderly populations in most developed countries have increased considerably, both in absolute and relative terms. This growth of the elderly share of the population is mainly attributable to two demographic transitions: the (simultaneous) increase in longevity and

  20. Growth and physiological responses to varied environments among populations of Pinus ponderosa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianwei Zhang; Bert M. Cregg

    2005-01-01

    We investigated population responses in physiology, morphology, and growth of mature Pinus ponderosa trees to an environmental gradient across Nebraska, USA. Ten populations from western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming were grown in three 26-year-old provenance tests from the warmest and wettest site in the east (Plattsmouth) to the intermediate site in...

  1. The effects of declining population growth on the demand for housing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas C. Marcin

    1974-01-01

    Declining population growth and unprecedented changes in the age structure of the population in the next several decades will profoundly affect housing demand in the next 50 years. A decline in housing demand and substantial change in the type of housing in demand are likely to occur by 1990.

  2. Assessing the Impact of Population Growth, Climate Change, and Land Use Change on Water Resources in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, N.; Cherkauer, K. A.

    2014-12-01

    India is poised to become the most populous country in the world by 2019 and reach a population of over 2 billion by 2050 based on current growth rates. It is also a region which will be under severe socio-economic and environmental stress if mitigation efforts are not adapted. In the past 10 years the population of India has grown by an average rate of 17 million people per year. In addition to unprecedented population growth, rapid urbanization and industrialization are straining the overburdened environmental system. This rapid growth in population, urbanization and industrialized will result in increased demand for food, requiring expansion of agricultural resources. Since total agricultural land in India has been relatively constant over the past 10 years the demand for additional food has to be partly met by enhanced production on existing land. Arable land in India has declined by around 3% according to FAOSTAT while the total agricultural area under irrigation has increased by about 9% thus further straining its water resources. In addition projections for future climate indicate that India is one of the regions where water resources are expected to be negatively impacted. Total agriculture water withdrawal in India increased by approximately 18 % from 2000-2010 while the total per capita water withdrawal increased by over 9% from 2000-2010. Total freshwater withdrawal as percentage of renewable water resources was around 40% in 2010. In addition, recent mandates of biofuel policies in India are also expected to impact its water resources. The combined impact of these various factors on future water availability in India could be one of the most severe globally due its unprecedented increase in population, food production and industrialization. In this study we assess the impact of land use and climate change on water resources over southern India in the face of a growing population and interest in development of national biofuel supplies. We use

  3. Embracing the River: Smart Growth Strategies for Assisting in Cedar Rapids' Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report from an EPA-FEMA technical assistance project with Cedar Rapids, IA, offers ideas to encourage infill development, make development more resilient to floods, and improve stormwater management.

  4. Homogenous Population Genetic Structure of the Non-Native Raccoon Dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) in Europe as a Result of Rapid Population Expansion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drygala, Frank; Korablev, Nikolay; Ansorge, Hermann; Fickel, Joerns; Isomursu, Marja; Elmeros, Morten; Kowalczyk, Rafał; Baltrunaite, Laima; Balciauskas, Linas; Saarma, Urmas; Schulze, Christoph; Borkenhagen, Peter; Frantz, Alain C.

    2016-01-01

    The extent of gene flow during the range expansion of non-native species influences the amount of genetic diversity retained in expanding populations. Here, we analyse the population genetic structure of the raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) in north-eastern and central Europe. This invasive species is of management concern because it is highly susceptible to fox rabies and an important secondary host of the virus. We hypothesized that the large number of introduced animals and the species’ dispersal capabilities led to high population connectivity and maintenance of genetic diversity throughout the invaded range. We genotyped 332 tissue samples from seven European countries using 16 microsatellite loci. Different algorithms identified three genetic clusters corresponding to Finland, Denmark and a large ‘central’ population that reached from introduction areas in western Russia to northern Germany. Cluster assignments provided evidence of long-distance dispersal. The results of an Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis supported a scenario of equal effective population sizes among different pre-defined populations in the large central cluster. Our results are in line with strong gene flow and secondary admixture between neighbouring demes leading to reduced genetic structuring, probably a result of its fairly rapid population expansion after introduction. The results presented here are remarkable in the sense that we identified a homogenous genetic cluster inhabiting an area stretching over more than 1500km. They are also relevant for disease management, as in the event of a significant rabies outbreak, there is a great risk of a rapid virus spread among raccoon dog populations. PMID:27064784

  5. Safety dose of three commercially used growth promoters: nuricell- aqua, hepaprotect-aqua and rapid-grow on growth and survival of Thai pangas (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Ariful Islam

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To optimize the dose of 3 commonly used growth promoters, viz., Nuricell-Aqua (composition: glucomannan complex and mannose polymer, Hepaprotect-Aqua (composition: β-glucan, mannose polymer and essential oil and Rapid-Grow (composition: organic acid and their salt, β-glucan, mannose oligosaccharide and essential oil, using Thai pangas (Pangasiandon hypophthalmus as cultured species. Methods: Thai pangas fingerlings with an average length and weight of 11 cm and 10 g were reared under laboratory condition and growth promoters were fed after incorporating them with a test diet at a ratio of 10% of their body weight for a period of 28 d. Estimation of data on growth such as weight gain (g, specific growth rate, survivability (% test in each aquarium were conducted and data were analyzed using statistical software. Results: After 28 d of feeding with Nutricell-Aqua, 10 mg/(20 g feed·day, which was the dose recommended by the manufacturer, was found better. When Hepaprotect-Aqua and Rapid-Grow were employed, performance was found to be better with the dose of 60 mg/(20 g feed·day which was 1.5 times higher than the dose recommended by the corresponding manufacturer. Conclusions: These results suggest that chemicals and feed additives marketed in Bangladesh Fish Feed Market need further testing under Bangladesh climatic condition before being marketed.

  6. Colorimetry provides a rapid objective measurement of de novo hair growth rate in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzung, Tien-Yi; Yang, Chia-Yi; Huang, Yung-Chang; Kao, Fu-Jen

    2009-11-01

    Depilated mice have been used as a test platform for hair growth-regulating agents. However, currently available assessment tools for hair growth in mice are less than ideal. Tristimulus colorimetry of the fur color of depilated agouti, albino, and black mice with L*, a*, and b* values were performed daily until the full growth of pelage. Using light-emitting diode (LED) irradiation (650 and 890 nm) with a daily dose of 3.5 J/cm(2) as hair growth regulators, the hair growth rates observed by the global assessment were compared with those derived from colorimetry. In contrast to a* and b* values, L* values changed more drastically over time in the anagen phase regardless of fur color. Unlike the inhibitory effect of 650 nm irradiation, LED of 890 nm promoted de novo hair regrowth in mice. The difference in hair growth rates detected by colorimetry paralleled the observation made by the global assessment. The L* value of fur color obtained by tristimulus colorimetry was a sensitive yet quantitative indicator of de novo hair growth, and could be used to project the hair growth rate in mice.

  7. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-01-01

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan

  8. Comparisons of Growth and Survival Performance Among Selected Families and Wild Populations of Fenneropenaeus chinensis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Kun; Kong, Jie; Meng, Xianhong; Luan, Sheng; Cao, Baoxiang; Chen, Baolong

    2018-04-01

    In this study, families of selected population for growth (SP_BWT), selected population for white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) resistance (SP_RW), Bohai wild population (WP_BH) and Huanghai wild population (WP_HH) of F. chinensis were constructed through artificial insemination and with the standardized procedure of larvae rearing. Growth and survival performance were studied among four populations after a 70 days common test. The results showed that the maximum least square mean of body weight was 17.50 g in SP_BWT while the minimum was 13.03 g in WP_HH. Compared with WP_BH, body weight of SP_BWT increased by 23.41% ( P 0.05). Body weights of SP_BWT and SP_RW were significantly higher than that of WP_HH, which increased by 34.31% ( P populations was 0.19, 0.18, 0.17 and 0.16 g d-1, respectively. Coefficient of variation of body weight among four populations was high, which ranged from 32.67% to 35.25%. Such a range showed that there was the potentiality for further improvement in selected populations. Coefficient of variation of survival rate among four populations was low, varying between 3.20% and 5.90%. The difference of survival was highly significant ( P populations ( P growth performances were also observed among different families in each population. The body weight of 798F family was the highest. The absolute growth rate (AGR) was 0.25 g d-1, 150% higher than that of the lowest one, 0.1 g d-1 in 807F family. Survival rate of families among four populations was different. The highest was 94.74%, and the lowest was 71.88%.

  9. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin [Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia amin.oroji@siswa.um.edu.my, mohd@um.edu.my (Malaysia); Yarahmadian, Shantia [Mathematics Department Mississippi State University, USA Syarahmadian@math.msstate.edu (United States)

    2015-10-22

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  10. The ocean blues. Navigating the course of population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, D

    1996-01-01

    Oceans and their role in environmental balance are discussed in this article. Coastal waters within 200 miles from land are identified as providing over half the ocean's total biological productivity and supply of nearly all of the world's fish catch. Almost 3.6 billion people live in coastal areas or within 90 miles of coastal waters, which accounts for about 66% of world population. Coastal land areas account for about 8% of the earth's total land area. 8.3 billion people are expected by 2025 to live in coastal areas. 9 of the 10 largest cities in the world are located on coasts. 7 of the 10 largest cities in the US are coastal cities (54% of the US population or 142 million people). Almost all of the marine pollution is derived from land-based sources, such as sewage, nutrients, sediments, litter, and plastics. Mangroves in coastal waters have been reduced by about 50% to about 90,000 sq. miles worldwide. Global consumption of fish is responsible for depleting fish supplies and the loss of mangroves due to aquaculture of shrimp or other seafood. The US National Fisheries Service is cited for its report that 67 of the 156 fish stocks are overexploited. About 1 billion people, mostly in developing countries, rely on fish as their main food source. If imbalances in demand and supply continue, the rising price of fish and seafood will threaten the lives of about 1 billion or more people. Numerous international and national actions have been taken in order to protect supplies and reduce pollution. Sound resource management practices need to be instituted. Small and large fisheries can begin by reducing the 27 million tons of unintentional fish captures and by converting 29 million tons of fish used for animal feed into food for human consumption. Management of US coastal lands in most coastal states, with the exception of California and Rhode Island, is weak. Maryland has adopted a community-level approach for management of the Chesapeake Bay. Other environmental

  11. Population size structure indices and growth standards for Salmo (trutta trutta Linnaeus, 1758 in Central Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedicillo G.

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to provide reference data on the growth and population structure of brown trout Salmo (trutta trutta Linnaeus, in Central Italy. Standards for growth (percentiles and a standard growth model were developed from the von Bertalanffy growth model by using length-at-age data obtained from 122 sampling sites in the River Tiber basin. Length-frequency indices provide a numeric estimation for deviations of the population structure from a balanced population. We adapted the traditional North American Relative Stock Density (RSD and Proportional Stock Density (PSD indices to brown trout populations in Central Italy by means of two methods. In the first method, the benchmarks of length categories were established by using percentages applied to the largest individual in the dataset. In the second method, asymptotic length and size at maturity were used to define the length categories for index calculation. Both methods were tested on length-frequency data from 263 sampling sites in the River Tiber basin. The results showed that the PSD calculated by the first method provided a better insight into the population structures of brown trout. These results provide tools that will help ichthyologists and fish managers to compare the growth and population structure of brown trout throughout Central Italy.

  12. Population growth and environment as a self-organizing system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter M. Allen

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Over recent years a new understanding of complex systems, and their dynamics and evolution has emerged, and these have been shown to provide a new basis for models of the changing patterns of population and economic activities that shape the landscape. In this paper we make clear the necessarily partial description that any particular model must provide, and show the importance of a multidisciplinary, holistic understanding, linking any particular model to the co-evolution of its environment. In addition, we show how evolutionary processes link the microscopic level of molecules through successive scales of structure and organization ultimately to the biosphere itself, to issues of climatic change, of biomes at the continental scale and atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. Some very recent results will be shown which demonstrate that the world climate has already been modified considerably by human activities, particularly agriculture, underlining the vital need to understand better the on-going interaction between human activities and the biosphere.

  13. Factors associated with willingness to accept oral fluid HIV rapid testing among most-at-risk populations in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huanmiao Xun

    Full Text Available The availability of oral fluid HIV rapid testing provides an approach that may have the potential to expand HIV testing in China, especially among most-a-risk populations. There are few investigations about the acceptability of oral fluid HIV testing among most-at-risk populations in China.A cross-sectional study with men who have sex with men (MSM, female sex workers (FSW and voluntary counseling and testing (VCT clients was conducted in three cities of Shandong province, China from 2011 to 2012. Data were collected by face-to-face questionnaire.About 71% of participants were willing to accept the oral fluid HIV rapid testing, and home HIV testing was independently associated with acceptability of the new testing method among MSM, FSW and VCT clients (AOR of 4.46, 3.19 and 5.74, respectively. Independent predictors of oral fluid HIV rapid testing acceptability among MSM were having ever taken an oral fluid HIV rapid test (AOR= 15.25, having ever taken an HIV test (AOR= 2.07, and education level (AOR= 1.74. Engagement in HIV-related risk behaviors (AOR= 1.68 was an independent predictor of acceptability for FSW. Having taken an HIV test (AOR= 2.85 was an independent predictor of acceptability for VCT clients. The primary concern about the oral fluid HIV testing was accuracy. The median price they would pay for the testing ranged from 4.8 to 8.1 U.S. dollars.High acceptability of oral fluid HIV rapid testing was shown among most-at-risk populations. Findings provide support for oral rapid HIV testing as another HIV prevention tool, and provide a backdrop for the implementation of HIV home testing in the near future. Appropriate pricing and increased public education through awareness campaigns that address concerns about the accuracy and safety of the oral fluid HIV rapid testing may help increase acceptability and use among most-at-risk populations in China.

  14. Influence of Cell-Cell Interactions on the Population Growth Rate in a Tumor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yong

    2017-12-01

    The understanding of the macroscopic phenomenological models of the population growth at a microscopic level is important to predict the population behaviors emerged from the interactions between the individuals. In this work, we consider the influence of the population growth rate R on the cell-cell interaction in a tumor system and show that, in most cases especially small proliferative probabilities, the regulative role of the interaction will be strengthened with the decline of the intrinsic proliferative probabilities. For the high replication rates of an individual and the cooperative interactions, the proliferative probability almost has no effect. We compute the dependences of R on the interactions between the cells under the approximation of the nearest neighbor in the rim of an avascular tumor. Our results are helpful to qualitatively understand the influence of the interactions between the individuals on the growth rate in population systems. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 11675008 and 21434001

  15. Rapid Development of Specialty Population Registries and Quality Measures from Electronic Health Record Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kannan, Vaishnavi; Fish, Jason S; Mutz, Jacqueline M; Carrington, Angela R; Lai, Ki; Davis, Lisa S; Youngblood, Josh E; Rauschuber, Mark R; Flores, Kathryn A; Sara, Evan J; Bhat, Deepa G; Willett, DuWayne L

    2017-01-01

    Creation of a new electronic health record (EHR)-based registry often can be a "one-off" complex endeavor: first developing new EHR data collection and clinical decision support tools, followed by developing registry-specific data extractions from the EHR for analysis. Each development phase typically has its own long development and testing time, leading to a prolonged overall cycle time for delivering one functioning registry with companion reporting into production. The next registry request then starts from scratch. Such an approach will not scale to meet the emerging demand for specialty registries to support population health and value-based care. To determine if the creation of EHR-based specialty registries could be markedly accelerated by employing (a) a finite core set of EHR data collection principles and methods, (b) concurrent engineering of data extraction and data warehouse design using a common dimensional data model for all registries, and (c) agile development methods commonly employed in new product development. We adopted as guiding principles to (a) capture data as a byproduct of care of the patient, (b) reinforce optimal EHR use by clinicians, (c) employ a finite but robust set of EHR data capture tool types, and (d) leverage our existing technology toolkit. Registries were defined by a shared condition (recorded on the Problem List) or a shared exposure to a procedure (recorded on the Surgical History) or to a medication (recorded on the Medication List). Any EHR fields needed - either to determine registry membership or to calculate a registry-associated clinical quality measure (CQM) - were included in the enterprise data warehouse (EDW) shared dimensional data model. Extract-transform-load (ETL) code was written to pull data at defined "grains" from the EHR into the EDW model. All calculated CQM values were stored in a single Fact table in the EDW crossing all registries. Registry-specific dashboards were created in the EHR to display both

  16. A spatial analysis of patterns of growth and concentration of population based on homogeneous population censuses: Spain (1877-2001

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xavier Franch Auladell

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This work constitutes a contribution to the analysis of long term patterns of population concentration applied to the case of Spain. The proposed methodology is based on the homogenisation of both data and administrative units which takes the municipal structure of the 2001 census as its base reference. This work seeks to show how applying spatial analysis techniques to this type of homogeneous data series allows us to make more detailed studies of population patterns within a given territory. The most important conclusions that we reached was that, in Spain, sustained population growth has followed a spatial pattern that has become increasingly consolidated over time. The tendencies observed have produced an uneven distribution of population within the national territory marked by the existence of a series of well-defined, and often very localised, areas that spread beyond the limits of the official administrative boundaries.

  17. Nutrient foraging strategies are associated with productivity and population growth in forest shrubs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caplan, Joshua S; Stone, Bram W G; Faillace, Cara A; Lafond, Jonathan J; Baumgarten, Joni M; Mozdzer, Thomas J; Dighton, John; Meiners, Scott J; Grabosky, Jason C; Ehrenfeld, Joan G

    2017-04-01

    Temperate deciduous forest understoreys are experiencing widespread changes in community composition, concurrent with increases in rates of nitrogen supply. These shifts in plant abundance may be driven by interspecific differences in nutrient foraging (i.e. conservative vs. acquisitive strategies) and, thus, adaptation to contemporary nutrient loading conditions. This study sought to determine if interspecific differences in nutrient foraging could help explain patterns of shrub success and decline in eastern North American forests. Using plants grown in a common garden, fine root traits associated with nutrient foraging were measured for six shrub species. Traits included the mean and skewness of the root diameter distribution, specific root length (SRL), C:N ratio, root tissue density, arbuscular mycorrhizal colonization and foraging precision. Above- and below-ground productivity were also determined for the same plants, and population growth rates were estimated using data from a long-term study of community dynamics. Root traits were compared among species and associations among root traits, measures of productivity and rates of population growth were evaluated. Species fell into groups having thick or thin root forms, which correspond to conservative vs. acquisitive nutrient foraging strategies. Interspecific variation in root morphology and tissue construction correlated with measures of productivity and rates of cover expansion. Of the four species with acquisitive traits, three were introduced species that have become invasive in recent decades, and the fourth was a weedy native. In contrast, the two species with conservative traits were historically dominant shrubs that have declined in abundance in eastern North American forests. In forest understoreys of eastern North America, elevated nutrient availability may impose a filter on species success in addition to above-ground processes such as herbivory and overstorey canopy conditions. Shrubs that have

  18. Adult survival and population growth rate in Colorado big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Stanley, T.R.

    2011-01-01

    We studied adult survival and population growth at multiple maternity colonies of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado. We investigated hypotheses about survival using information-theoretic methods and mark-recapture analyses based on passive detection of adult females tagged with passive integrated transponders. We constructed a 3-stage life-history matrix model to estimate population growth rate (??) and assessed the relative importance of adult survival and other life-history parameters to population growth through elasticity and sensitivity analysis. Annual adult survival at 5 maternity colonies monitored from 2001 to 2005 was estimated at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.77-0.82). Adult survival varied by year and roost, with low survival during an extreme drought year, a finding with negative implications for bat populations because of the likelihood of increasing drought in western North America due to global climate change. Adult survival during winter was higher than in summer, and mean life expectancies calculated from survival estimates were lower than maximum longevity records. We modeled adult survival with recruitment parameter estimates from the same population. The study population was growing (?? = 1.096; 95% CI = 1.057-1.135). Adult survival was the most important demographic parameter for population growth. Growth clearly had the highest elasticity to adult survival, followed by juvenile survival and adult fecundity (approximately equivalent in rank). Elasticity was lowest for fecundity of yearlings. The relative importances of the various life-history parameters for population growth rate are similar to those of large mammals. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

  19. Rapid Growth of Large Single-Crystalline Graphene via Second Passivation and Multistage Carbon Supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Li; Sun, Luzhao; Zhang, Jincan; Sun, Jingyu; Koh, Ai Leen; Peng, Hailin; Liu, Zhongfan

    2016-06-01

    A second passivation and a multistage carbon-source supply (CSS) allow a 50-fold enhancement of the growth rate of large single-crystalline graphene with a record growth rate of 101 μm min(-1) , almost 10 times higher than for pure copper. To this end the CSS is tailored at separate stages of graphene growth on copper foil, combined with an effective suppression of new spontaneous nucleation via second passivation. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  20. Physical growth of the shuar: Height, Weight, and BMI references for an indigenous amazonian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urlacher, Samuel S; Blackwell, Aaron D; Liebert, Melissa A; Madimenos, Felicia C; Cepon-Robins, Tara J; Gildner, Theresa E; Snodgrass, J Josh; Sugiyama, Lawrence S

    2016-01-01

    Information concerning physical growth among small-scale populations remains limited, yet such data are critical to local health efforts and to foster basic understandings of human life history and variation in childhood development. Using a large dataset and robust modeling methods, this study aims to describe growth from birth to adulthood among the indigenous Shuar of Amazonian Ecuador. Mixed-longitudinal measures of height, weight, and body mass index (BMI) were collected from Shuar participants (n = 2,463; age: 0-29 years). Centile growth curves and tables were created for each anthropometric variable of interest using Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS). Pseudo-velocity and Lambda-Mu-Sigma curves were generated to further investigate Shuar patterns of growth and to facilitate comparison with United States Center for Disease Control and Prevention and multinational World Health Organization growth references. The Shuar are small throughout life and exhibit complex patterns of growth that differ substantially from those of international references. Similar to other Amazonians, Shuar growth in weight compares more favorably to references than growth in height, resulting in BMI curves that approximate international medians. Several additional characteristics of Shuar development are noteworthy, including large observed variation in body size early in life, significant infant growth faltering, extended male growth into adulthood, and a markedly early female pubertal growth spurt in height. Phenotypic plasticity and genetic selection in response to local environmental factors may explain many of these patterns. Providing a detailed reference of growth for the Shuar and other Amazonian populations, this study possesses direct clinical application and affords valuable insight into childhood health and the ecology of human growth. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Current demographics suggest future energy supplies will be inadequate to slow human population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar; Hamilton, Marcus J

    2010-10-05

    Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.

  2. Current demographics suggest future energy supplies will be inadequate to slow human population growth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John P DeLong

    Full Text Available Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.

  3. The dramatic increase in total knee replacement utilization rates in the United States cannot be fully explained by growth in population size and the obesity epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Losina, Elena; Thornhill, Thomas S; Rome, Benjamin N; Wright, John; Katz, Jeffrey N

    2012-02-01

    Total knee replacement utilization in the United States more than doubled from 1999 to 2008. Although the reasons for this increase have not been examined rigorously, some have attributed the increase to population growth and the obesity epidemic. Our goal was to investigate whether the rapid increase in total knee replacement use over the past decade can be sufficiently attributed to changes in these two factors. We used data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample to estimate changes in total knee replacement utilization rates from 1999 to 2008, stratified by age (eighteen to forty-four years, forty-five to sixty-four years, and sixty-five years or older). We obtained data on obesity prevalence and U.S. population growth from federal sources. We compared the rate of change in total knee replacement utilization with the rates of population growth and change in obesity prevalence from 1999 to 2008. In 2008, 615,050 total knee replacements were performed in the United States adult population, 134% more than in 1999. During the same time period, the overall population size increased by 11%. While the population of forty-five to sixty-four-year-olds grew by 29%, the number of total knee replacements in this age group more than tripled. The number of obese and non-obese individuals in the United States increased by 23% and 4%, respectively. Assuming unchanged indications for total knee replacement among obese and non-obese individuals with knee osteoarthritis over the last decade, these changes fail to account for the 134% growth in total knee replacement use. Population growth and obesity cannot fully explain the rapid expansion of total knee replacements in the last decade, suggesting that other factors must also be involved. The disproportionate increase in total knee replacements among younger patients may be a result of a growing number of knee injuries and expanding indications for the procedure.

  4. Socioeconomic Status Accounts for Rapidly Increasing Geographic Variation in the Incidence of Poor Fetal Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, Stephen J.; Jacoby, Peter; Zubrick, Stephen R.

    2013-01-01

    Fetal growth is an important risk factor for infant morbidity and mortality. In turn, socioeconomic status is a key predictor of fetal growth; however, other sociodemographic factors and environmental effects may also be important. This study modelled geographic variation in poor fetal growth after accounting for socioeconomic status, with a fixed effect for socioeconomic status and a combination of spatially-correlated and spatially-uncorrelated random effects. The dataset comprised 88,246 liveborn singletons, aggregated within suburbs in Perth, Western Australia. Low socioeconomic status was strongly associated with an increased risk of poor fetal growth. An increase in geographic variation of poor fetal growth from 1999–2001 (interquartile odds ratio among suburbs = 1.20) to 2004–2006 (interquartile odds ratio = 1.40) indicated a widening risk disparity by socioeconomic status. Low levels of residual spatial patterns strengthen the case for targeting policies and practices in areas of low socioeconomic status for improved outcomes. This study indicates an alarming increase in geographic inequalities in poor fetal growth in Perth which warrants further research into the specific aspects of socioeconomic status that act as risk factors. PMID:23799513

  5. [Effect of the population density on growth and regeneration in the snail Achatina fulica].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidel'nikov, A P; Stepanov, I I

    2000-01-01

    In the laboratory, the growth rate of the giant African snail Achatina fulica, as estimated by the weight and shell length was shown to decrease when the population density increased from 10 to 60 snails/m2 of the total terrarium area for five months. In the second experiment, when the population density increased from 48 to 193 snails/m2, the growth rate had already decreased by six weeks. In the groups with a high population density the feeding behavior was weakened, expressed by a greater amount of nonconsumed food, according to visual observations, than in the groups with lower population densities. At the population density of 10 to 60 snails/m2, the proliferative activity in the course of the optic tentacle regeneration, as expressed by the mitotic index, did not differ reliably within five months. In the second experiment, the mitotic indices at the population densities of 96 and 193 snails/m2 within 1.5 months exceeded that of 48 snails/m2. Recommendations are given concerning the population density from the viewpoint of commercial growth of the snails. It was proposed that, based on the analysis of the mechanism underlying the inhibition of feeding behavior in populations with extra high densities, one may develop a new approach to the production of chemical agents to control land snails as agricultural pests.

  6. Quantifying long-term population growth rates of threatened bull trout: challenges, lessons learned, and opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budy, Phaedra; Bowerman, Tracy; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Conner, Mary; Schaller, Howard

    2017-01-01

    Temporal symmetry models (TSM) represent advances in the analytical application of mark–recapture data to population status assessments. For a population of char, we employed 10 years of active and passive mark–recapture data to quantify population growth rates using different data sources and analytical approaches. Estimates of adult population growth rate were 1.01 (95% confidence interval = 0.84–1.20) using a temporal symmetry model (λTSM), 0.96 (0.68–1.34) based on logistic regressions of annual snorkel data (λA), and 0.92 (0.77–1.11) from redd counts (λR). Top-performing TSMs included an increasing time trend in recruitment (f) and changes in capture probability (p). There was only a 1% chance the population decreased ≥50%, and a 10% chance it decreased ≥30% (λMCMC; based on Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure). Size structure was stable; however, the adult population was dominated by small adults, and over the study period there was a decline in the contribution of large adults to total biomass. Juvenile condition decreased with increasing adult densities. Utilization of these different information sources provided a robust weight-of-evidence approach to identifying population status and potential mechanisms driving changes in population growth rates.

  7. Population growth and economic development: two new U.S. perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wulf, D; Klitsch, M

    1986-01-01

    This report compares the research paths of economic development reports by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and the American Assembly of Columbia University. The NAS group, made up principally of economists and demographers, refrained from recommending population reduction targets, in contrast to the stronger terms of its 1971 report. A 1965 report by the Assembly spoke of population as a serious negative influence for economic development, political stability, and world peace, while the new report speaks of negative socioeconomic effects, and of the limiting of a person's right to control family size. The NAS agenda was established before the US delegation to the UN population conference in Mexico City retreated from declaring population growth to be a necessarily negative influencer of socioeconomic progress. The Assembly took the position that possible benefits of population growth would be far outweighed by factors such as resource depletion and women's health. The NAS maintained that growth might provide incentives for institutional adjustments (market development, investment in education) and control of growth should not be considered a substitute for such interventions. Both reports agree that control of fertility is a human right, but the NAS report examined the question of the acceptable degree of compulsion to be used to encourage couples. The Assembly objected to limiting access to family planning by defunding abortion programs oversease. Differences exist between the 2 reports in questins such as the negative impact of 1950's population growth, the synergistic effect of growth on many areas of human activity, the extent to which welfare of future generations is considered relevant today, and the adequacy of pure economic analysis in assessing need. Much study of population/development linkages is still required.

  8. Rapid Growth of Psychology Programs in Turkey: Undergraduate Curriculum and Structural Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sümer, Nebi

    2016-01-01

    Similar to the other developing countries, undergraduate psychology programs in Turkish universities have rapidly grown in the last two decades. Although this sharp increment signifies the need for psychologists, it has also caused a number of challenges for effective teaching of psychology. The department chairs (N = 42) were interviewed with an…

  9. Diversity as valued and troubled: social identities and demographic categories in understandings of rapid urban growth in Vanuatu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widmer, Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    This paper deals with the simultaneous mainstreaming and diversification of ni-Vanuatu social categories associated with the ways in which population growth is understood as a possible crisis in both demographic knowledge and everyday ni-Vanuatu knowledge. The author is interested in understanding the downplaying but primarily the amplification of difference with respect to place, generation and gender identities. The relationship between reproduction, social reproduction and the multiple meanings of modernity is at issue. In the expert knowledge of demography that proffers advice for the ni-Vanuatu state, it is the lack of modern development - in the form of adequate biomedical birth control, western education, and the equality of women - that is the implicit cause of population growth. Yet, many ni-Vanuatu see population growth as tied to the troubles that arise from the dilution of traditional social forms: there is too much modernity. In both demographic and ni-Vanuatu everyday narrations of the potential population crisis, diversification and mainstreaming take place and vulnerabilities are produced.

  10. Challenges of rapid economic growth in China: Reconciling sustainable energy use, environmental stewardship and social development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Yong; Oberheitmann, Andreas

    2009-01-01

    China aims at quadrupling per-capita GDP by 2020 compared to the year 2000. Without any energy and environmental policy measures, this tremendous economic growth would be associated with a quadrupling of primary energy consumption up to 6.3 billion tons of standard coal equivalents (sce) and energy-related CO 2 -emissions of 13.9 billion tons Against this background, this paper is to set China's need to implement its sustainable development strategy into the quantitative context of the countries economic development and subsequent economic growth-related environmental problems. China is urgently searching for a way to ease the negative implications of economic growth and has committed itself to achieve a level of 3.0 billion ton sce primary energy consumption in 2020. As a consequence, the macro-economic energy intensity has to be reduced by 53% by 2020. A reduction of 53% by 2020 would lead to an energy intensity level 30% points below the year-2000 level of developed countries. As for natural resources, the expected economic growth will lead to an increase of crude oil net-imports up to 455 million ton sce in 2020 and 650 million ton sce in 2030. As for regional income distribution, economic growth helped to decrease existing inequities

  11. Influence of Plant Population and Nitrogen-Fertilizer at Various Levels on Growth and Growth Efficiency of Maize

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. I. Tajul

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Field experiments were conducted to evaluate plant population and N-fertilizer effects on yield and yield components of maize (Zea mays L.. Three levels of plant populations (53000, 66000, and 800000 plants ha−1 corresponding to spacings of 75 × 25, 60 × 25, and 50 × 25 cm and 4 doses of N (100, 140, 180, and 220 kg ha−1 were the treatment variables. Results revealed that plant growth, light interception (LI, yield attributes, and grain yield varied significantly due to the variations in population density and N-rates. Crop growth rate (CGR was the highest with the population of 80,000 ha−1 receiving 220 kg N ha−1, while relative growth rate (RGR showed an opposite trend of CGR. Light absorption was maximum when most of densely populated plant received the highest amount of N (220 kg N ha−1. Response of soil-plant-analysis development (SPAD value as well as N-content to N-rates was found significant. Plant height was the maximum at the lowest plant density with the highest amount of N. Plants that received 180 kg N ha−1 with 80,000 plants ha−1 had larger foliage, greater SPAD value, and higher amount of grains cob−1 that contributed to the maximum yield (5.03 t ha−1 and the maximum harvest index (HI compared to the plants in other treatments.

  12. Trends in population growth in China's towns during the eighties, and town population in-migration and its decisive factors: a historic convergence of two types of demographic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, J

    1990-01-01

    Relying on socioeconomic and population statistics, as well as population censuses, the author examines the growth of China's towns in the 1980s due to in-migration, and considers the economic causes and impact of the growth of towns. Prior to 1984, China's urbanization had been slow and uneven. But in the 4 years from 1984-87, China's urban population grew 3.8 times faster than the period before 1984. and unlike the previous pattern of urbanization, slightly over half of the urban growth occurred in small cities and towns. The rapid growth of towns was due to an unprecedented level of in-migration into towns from agricultural villages. This population transformed itself into a nonagricultural population. The author attributes the increase in urbanization and its changing patterns to a historic convergence: the shift in industry for the agricultural population and a regional shift for the village population--realized through a form of village-to-town population migration. The author goes on to examine the development of small-town enterprises, facilitated after the rural reform of 1984. The author notes that since that year, small-town industries have flourished, a development that has had a number of beneficial effects on both the provincial areas and the nation as a whole. Finally, the author considers the factors that have fueled town population in-migration: 1) in most provinces, higher incomes in towns have attracted people from the villages; and 2) in provinces with little discrepancy in income between town and village, a combination of the regions' relative isolation and government policy preventing migration to cities have spurred the growth of towns.

  13. A necessary condition for dispersal driven growth of populations with discrete patch dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guiver, Chris; Packman, David; Townley, Stuart

    2017-07-07

    We revisit the question of when can dispersal-induced coupling between discrete sink populations cause overall population growth? Such a phenomenon is called dispersal driven growth and provides a simple explanation of how dispersal can allow populations to persist across discrete, spatially heterogeneous, environments even when individual patches are adverse or unfavourable. For two classes of mathematical models, one linear and one non-linear, we provide necessary conditions for dispersal driven growth in terms of the non-existence of a common linear Lyapunov function, which we describe. Our approach draws heavily upon the underlying positive dynamical systems structure. Our results apply to both discrete- and continuous-time models. The theory is illustrated with examples and both biological and mathematical conclusions are drawn. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  14. Uropathogenic Escherichia coli Express Type 1 Fimbriae Only in Surface Adherent Populations Under Physiological Growth Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stærk, Kristian; Kolmos, Hans Jørn; Khandige, Surabhi

    2016-01-01

    were correlated with the ability to adhere to and invade cultured human bladder cells. RESULTS:  Although inactive during planktonic growth in urine, T1F expression occurs when UPEC settles on and infects bladder epithelial cells or colonizes catheters. As a result, UPEC in these sessile populations...... with increased expression during surface growth adaptation and infection of uroepithelial cells. This leads to separation of UPEC into low-expression planktonic populations and high-expression sessile populations....... enhances bladder cell adhesion and invasion potential. Only T1F-negative UPEC are subsequently released to the urine, thus limiting T1F expression to surface-associated UPEC alone. CONCLUSION:  Our results demonstrate that T1F expression is strictly regulated under physiological growth conditions...

  15. Coral reef growth in an era of rapidly rising sea level: predictions and suggestions for long-term research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buddemeier, R W; Smith, S V

    1988-01-01

    Coral reef growth is intimately linked to sea level. It has been postulated that over the next century, sea level will rise at a probable average rate of 15 mm/year, in response to fossil fuel emissions, heating, and melting of the Antarctic ice cap. This predicted rate of sea level rise is five times the present modal rate of vertical accretion on coral reef flats and 50% greater than the maximum vertical accretion rates apparently attained by coral reefs. We use these predictions and observations to offer the following hypothesis for reef growth over the next century. The vertical accretion rates of protected reef flats will accelerate from the present modal rate up to the maximum rate, in response to the more rapidly rising sea level. This more rapid vertical accretion rate will be insufficient to keep up with sea level rise, if present predictions prove to be correct. Less protected reef flats will slow their rate of growth as they become inundated and subjected to erosion by progressively larger waves. This projected sea level rise and postulated reef response will provide an opportunity for long- term studies of the response of coral reef systems to a predictable and measurable forcing function.

  16. Dynamics of individual growth in a recovering population of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabrizio, Mary C.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Schram, Stephen T.

    2001-01-01

    In 1976, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources established a refuge for a nearly depleted population of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) at Gull Island Shoal, Lake Superior. The refuge was intended to reduce fishing mortality by protecting adult lake trout. We examined the growth dynamics of these lake trout during the period of recovery by comparing estimates of ndividual growth before and after the refuge was established. Our estimates are based on an annual mark-recapture survey conducted at the spawning area since 1969. We developed a model that allowed mean growth rates to differ among individuals of different sizes and that accommodated variation in growth rates of individuals of the same size. Likelihood ratio tests were used to determine if the mean growth increments of lake trout changed ater the refuge was established. Our results suggest that growth of mature lake trout (particularly wild fish) decreased significantly in the postrefuge period. This decreased growth may have been associated with a reduction in food availability. We also observed reductions in growth as wild fish grew older and larger, which suggests that the growth of these fish may be adequately approximated by a von Bertalanffy growth model if it becomes possible to obtain accurate ages.

  17. On the growth of primary industry and population of China’s counties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2010-09-01

    The growth dynamics of complex organizations have attracted much interest of econophysicists and sociophysicists in recent years. However, most of the studies are done for developed countries. We investigate the growth dynamics of the primary industry and the population of 2079 counties in mainland China using the data from the China County Statistical Yearbooks from 2000 to 2006. We find that the annual growth rates are distributed according to Student’s t distribution with the tail exponent less than 2. We find power-law relationships between the sample standard deviation of the growth rates and the initial size. The scaling exponent is less than 0.5 for the primary industry and close to 0.5 for the population.

  18. Population growth and development of Liposcelis pearmani (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae) at constant temperatures and relative humidities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aminatou, B A; Gautam, S G; Opit, G P; Talley, J; Shakya, K

    2011-08-01

    Psocids of genus Liposcelis are now considered serious pests of stored products. We investigated the effects of eight temperatures (22.5, 25.0, 27.5, 30.0, 32.5, 35.0, 37.5, and 40.0°C) and four relative humidities (43, 55, 63, and 75%) on population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis pearmani Lienhard. L. pearmani did not survive at 37.5 and 40.0°C, at all relative humidities tested; at 43% RH, at all temperatures tested; and at 55% RH, at 32.5 and 35°C. The greatest population growth was recorded at 32.5°C and 75% RH (32-fold growth). L. pearmani males have two to four nymphal instars, and the percentages of males with two, three, and four instars were 17, 63, and 20%, respectively. Female L. pearmani have two to five instars, and the percentages of females with two, three, four, and five instars were 5, 39, 55, and 1%, respectively. We developed temperature-dependent development equations for male and female eggs, individual nymphal, combined nymphal, and combined immature stages. Based on 30-d population growth, L. pearmani cannot survive at temperatures >35.0°C; does not thrive at low relative humidities (55%), at temperatures above 25°C; and has a high optimum relative humidity for population growth (75%). Therefore, we expect it to have a more limited distribution compared with other Liposcelis species. These data provide a better understanding of how temperature and RH may influence L. pearmani population dynamics and can be used in population growth models to help develop effective management strategies for this psocid, and to predict its occurrence.

  19. Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hüsler, A. D.; Sornette, D.

    2014-10-01

    We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend.

  20. Rapid genetic turnover in populations of the insect pest Bemisia tabaci Middle East: Asia Minor 1 in an agricultural landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinsdale, A; Schellhorn, N A; De Barro, P; Buckley, Y M; Riginos, C

    2012-10-01

    Organisms differ greatly in dispersal ability, and landscapes differ in amenability to an organism's movement. Thus, landscape structure and heterogeneity can affect genetic composition of populations. While many agricultural pests are known for their ability to disperse rapidly, it is unclear how fast and over what spatial scale insect pests might respond to the temporally dynamic agricultural landscapes they inhabit. We used population genetic analyses of a severe crop pest, a member of the Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Sternorrhyncha: Aleyrodoidea: Aleyrodidea) cryptic species complex known as Middle East-Asia Minor 1 (commonly known as biotype B), to estimate spatial and temporal genetic diversity over four months of the 2006-2007 summer growing season. We examined 559 individuals from eight sites, which were scored for eight microsatellite loci. Temporal genetic structure greatly exceeded spatial structure. There was significant temporal change in local genetic composition from the beginning to the end of the season accompanied by heterozygote deficits and inbreeding. This temporal structure suggests entire cohorts of pests can occupy a large and variable agricultural landscape but are rapidly replaced. These rapid genetic fluctuations reinforce the concept that agricultural landscapes are dynamic mosaics in time and space and may contribute to better decisions for pest and insecticide resistance management.

  1. Rapid warming accelerates tree growth decline in semi-arid forests of Inner Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hongyan; Park Williams, A; Allen, Craig D; Guo, Dali; Wu, Xiuchen; Anenkhonov, Oleg A; Liang, Eryuan; Sandanov, Denis V; Yin, Yi; Qi, Zhaohuan; Badmaeva, Natalya K

    2013-08-01

    Forests around the world are subject to risk of high rates of tree growth decline and increased tree mortality from combinations of climate warming and drought, notably in semi-arid settings. Here, we assess how climate warming has affected tree growth in one of the world's most extensive zones of semi-arid forests, in Inner Asia, a region where lack of data limits our understanding of how climate change may impact forests. We show that pervasive tree growth declines since 1994 in Inner Asia have been confined to semi-arid forests, where growing season water stress has been rising due to warming-induced increases in atmospheric moisture demand. A causal link between increasing drought and declining growth at semi-arid sites is corroborated by correlation analyses comparing annual climate data to records of tree-ring widths. These ring-width records tend to be substantially more sensitive to drought variability at semi-arid sites than at semi-humid sites. Fire occurrence and insect/pathogen attacks have increased in tandem with the most recent (2007-2009) documented episode of tree mortality. If warming in Inner Asia continues, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be expected, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi-arid forests. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Feedbacks between inundation, root production, and shoot growth in a rapidly submerging brackish marsh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirwan, Matthew L.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

    2012-01-01

    1. Ecogeomorphic feedbacks between mineral sediment deposition and above-ground plant growth are thought to have dominated the evolution of many coastal ecosystems and landforms. However, land-use-related reductions in sediment delivery rates to estuaries world-wide suggest that these above-ground feedbacks may not apply in some of the world's most vulnerable coastal landscapes.

  3. Blocking rapid ice crystal growth through nonbasal plane adsorption of antifreeze proteins

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olijve, L.L.C.; Meister, K.; DeVries, A.L.; Duman, J.G.; Guo, S.; Bakker, H.J.; Voets, I.K.

    2016-01-01

    Antifreeze proteins (AFPs) are a unique class of proteins that bind to growing ice crystal surfaces and arrest further ice growth. AFPs have gained a large interest for their use in antifreeze formulations for water-based materials, such as foods, waterborne paints, and organ transplants. Instead of

  4. Population growth, economic development and carrying capacity of the environment - are they compatible or in conflict?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. F. Heydom

    1996-07-01

    Full Text Available In South Africa, as in many other countries, human population growth is currently reaching levels which render competition for basic human needs such as land and water, inevitable. Concurrent to population growth is the absolute necessity for economic development and job opportunities which, in turn, make tremendous demands upon the environment and natural resource base. As a consequence ever greater emphasis is placed by the news media on apparent conflicts between industrial development and social needs on the one hand, and conservation of the environment and natural resources on the other.

  5. Population increase, economic growth, educational inequality, and income distribution: some recent evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ram, R

    1984-04-01

    The relationship between population increase, economic growth, education and income inequality was examined in a cross-section study based on data from 26 developing and 2 developed countries. As other studies have noted, high population growth is associated with a less equal income distribution. A 1 percentage point reduction in the rate of population growth tends to raise the income share of the poorest 80% in the less developed world by almost 5 percentage points and is associated with a 1.7 percentage point increase in the income share of the poorest 40%. The relationship between short-run income growth and equality, on the other hand, is strong and positive. Estimates suggest that a 1 percentage point increase in the short-run rate of growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) increases the income share of the bottom 80% by about 2 percentage points and that of the poorest 40% by almost 1 percentage point. Although higher mean schooling appears to be a mild equalizer, educational inequality does not appear to have an adverse effect on income distribution. Overall, these results challenge the widely held belief that there must be a growth-equity trade-off. Moreover, they suggest that the impact of educational inequality on income distribution may be different from that observed in earlier studies, implying a need for caution in using these earlier results as a basis for educational policy development.

  6. Growth and structure of rapid thermal silicon oxides and nitroxides studied by spectroellipsometry and Auger electron spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonon, N.; Gagnaire, A.; Barbier, D.; Glachant, A.

    1994-11-01

    Rapid thermal oxidation of Czochralski-grown silicon in either O2 or N2O atmospheres have been studied using spectroellipsometry and Auger electron spectroscopy. Multiwavelength ellipsometric data were processed in order to separately derive the thickness and refractive indexes of rapid thermal dielectrics. Results revealed a significant increase of the mean refractive index as the film thickness falls below 20 nm for both O2 or N2O oxidant species. A multilayer structure including an about 0.3-nm-thick interfacial region of either SiO(x) or nitroxide in the case of O2 and N2O growth, respectively, followed by a densified SiO2 layer, was found to accurately fit the experimental data. The interfacial region together with the densified state of SiO2 close to the interface suggest a dielectric structure in agreement with the continuous random network model proposed for classical thermal oxides. Auger electron spectroscopy analysis confirmed the presence of noncrystalline Si-Si bonds in the interfacial region, mostly in the case of thin oxides grown in O2. It was speculated that the initial fast growth regime was due to a transient oxygen supersaturation in the interfacial region. Besides, the self-limiting growth in N2O was confirmed and explained in agreement with several recently published data, by the early formation of a very thin nitride or oxynitride membrane in the highly densified oxide beneath the interface. The beneficial effect of direct nitrogen incorporation by rapid thermal oxidation in N2O instead of O2 for the electrical behavior of metal-oxide-semiconductor capacitors is likely a better SiO2/Si lattice accommodation through the reduction of stresses and Si-Si bonds in the interfacial region of the dielectric.

  7. Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

    2003-01-01

    Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

  8. Genetic variation facilitates seedling establishment but not population growth rate of a perennial invader.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shou-Li; Vasemägi, Anti; Ramula, Satu

    2016-01-01

    Assessing the demographic consequences of genetic variation is fundamental to invasion biology. However, genetic and demographic approaches are rarely combined to explore the effects of genetic variation on invasive populations in natural environments. This study combined population genetics, demographic data and a greenhouse experiment to investigate the consequences of genetic variation for the population fitness of the perennial, invasive herb Lupinus polyphyllus. Genetic and demographic data were collected from 37 L. polyphyllus populations representing different latitudes in Finland, and genetic variation was characterized based on 13 microsatellite loci. Associations between genetic variation and population size, population density, latitude and habitat were investigated. Genetic variation was then explored in relation to four fitness components (establishment, survival, growth, fecundity) measured at the population level, and the long-term population growth rate (λ). For a subset of populations genetic variation was also examined in relation to the temporal variability of λ. A further assessment was made of the role of natural selection in the observed variation of certain fitness components among populations under greenhouse conditions. It was found that genetic variation correlated positively with population size, particularly at higher latitudes, and differed among habitat types. Average seedling establishment per population increased with genetic variation in the field, but not under greenhouse conditions. Quantitative genetic divergence (Q(ST)) based on seedling establishment in the greenhouse was smaller than allelic genetic divergence (F'(ST)), indicating that unifying selection has a prominent role in this fitness component. Genetic variation was not associated with average survival, growth or fecundity measured at the population level, λ or its variability. The study suggests that although genetic variation may facilitate plant invasions by

  9. The temporal and spatial dynamics of income and population growth in Ohio, 1950-1990.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, C C

    1994-01-01

    "This paper focuses on spatial variation of growth within a state. Using Ohio as a case study, two hypotheses are extracted from the literature. First, the theories of polarization and polarization reversal suggest that in the old industrial core the leading sector role of manufacturing has diminished in old manufacturing poles, and that income growth trends differ substantially between these old poles and new centres of development. Second, the theories of suburbanization and migration reversals suggest that population growth is contingent upon level of urbanization, and that the relationship has changed drastically between the pre-1970s, 1970s, and post-1970s periods." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND GER) excerpt

  10. Population genomics reveal recent speciation and rapid evolutionary adaptation in polar bears

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Shiping; Lorenzen, Eline; Fumagalli, Matteo

    2014-01-01

    Polar bears are uniquely adapted to life in the High Arctic and have undergone drastic physiological changes in response to Arctic climates and a hyperlipid diet of primarily marine mammal prey. We analyzed 89 complete genomes of polar bear and brown bear using population genomic modeling and sho...

  11. Tissue-resident adult stem cell populations of rapidly self-renewing organs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barker, N.; Bartfeld, S.; Clevers, H.

    2010-01-01

    The epithelial lining of the intestine, stomach, and skin is continuously exposed to environmental assault, imposing a requirement for regular self-renewal. Resident adult stem cell populations drive this renewal, and much effort has been invested in revealing their identity. Reliable adult stem

  12. Analysis of single hyphal growth and fragmentation in submerged cultures using a population model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krabben, Preben; Nielsen, Søren; Michelsen, Michael Locht

    1997-01-01

    Descriptions of population dynamics in submerged cultures are important when studying the mechanisms of growth and fragmentation of filamentous microorganisms. Population models are traditionally formulated as population balance equations. Population models of filamentous morphology are difficult...... to solve because of random fragmentation, which introduces an integral term into the population balance equations. Balances for the systemic properties, e.g. concentration of hyphal elements, substrate concentration, average total hyphal length, and average number of growing tips, are set up. Based...... on these balances one can solve the inverse problem, i.e. determination of kinetic parameters directly from measurements of the hyphal morphology. Both a Monte Carlo method and a discretization method have been used to calculate the steady-state population distribution. The two methods are compared and the Monte...

  13. An application of Pontrjagin's principle to the study of the optimal growth of population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spinadel, V. de

    1976-01-01

    This paper examines the consequences of an optimal control of population growth and allows to derive criteria referring to the economic basis of expenditure on population control and to obtain optimal paths for a model in which such a control is possible. By means of very simple assumptions one can reduce the problem to a two-state variable control problem and, in consequence, apply Pontrjagin's maximum principle to solve it. (author)

  14. Nonylphenol stimulates fecundity but not population growth rate (λ) of Folsomia candida

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Widarto, T. H.; Krogh, P. H.; Forbes, V. E.

    2007-01-01

    of NP on these traits did not result in a statistically significant increase in population growth rate (λ). Decomposition analysis indicated that fecundity was the main contributor to the (non-significant) changes observed in λ However, since the elasticity of fecundity was very low, large changes...... at the population level and that λ is an appropriate endpoint for ecotoxicological studies. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved...

  15. Rapid regulation of leaf photosynthesis, carbohydrate status and leaf area expansion to maintain growth in irregular light environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, Katrine Heinsvig

    2012-01-01

    to maintain carbohydrate status and growth in unpredictable light environments. Our recent results show rapid regulation of photosynthesis and leaf carbohydrate status to maintain growth and light interception in dynamic light environments when campanula, rose and chrysanthemum were grown in a cost......-efficient light control system. Plant dry matter production was in all cases linear related to DLI, despite changes in daily light duration and light intensity of supplemental light suggesting that DLI is the main limiting factor for the prediction of production time in optimal temperature conditions. The results......Protected plant productions in northern latitudes rely heavily on supplemental light use to extend the number of light hours during the day. To conserve electricity and lower costs, a low-energy input system use supplemental lights preferable during less expensive off-peak hours and turn lighting...

  16. India in the Twenty-first Century: The Challenge of Population Growth. Fulbright-Hays Summer Seminars Abroad, 1997 (India).

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Fleur, Mary Ann

    This paper contains a course outline for a five-hour graduate class focusing on the issue of population in India. Students examine contributing factors to population growth, along with studying characteristics of, and efforts to, control population growth. The significance of ethnic diversity in India also is addressed. Group discussion and group…

  17. Effects of temperature and population density on von Bertalanffy growth parameters in Atlantic herring: a macro-ecological analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunel, T.P.A.; Dickey-Collas, M.

    2010-01-01

    The effect of temperature and population density on the growth of Atlantic herring Clupea harengus was studied using a comparative approach applied to 15 North Atlantic populations. The von Bertalanffy (VB) equation was applied to describe mean growth of individuals in each population, both averaged

  18. Polygenic risk, rapid childhood growth, and the development of obesity: evidence from a 4-decade longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belsky, Daniel W; Moffitt, Terrie E; Houts, Renate; Bennett, Gary G; Biddle, Andrea K; Blumenthal, James A; Evans, James P; Harrington, Honalee; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Poulton, Richie; Caspi, Avshalom

    2012-06-01

    To test how genomic loci identified in genome-wide association studies influence the development of obesity. A 38-year prospective longitudinal study of a representative birth cohort. The Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study, Dunedin, New Zealand. One thousand thirty-seven male and female study members. We assessed genetic risk with a multilocus genetic risk score. The genetic risk score was composed of single-nucleotide polymorphisms identified in genome-wide association studies of obesity-related phenotypes. We assessed family history from parent body mass index data collected when study members were 11 years of age. Body mass index growth curves, developmental phenotypes of obesity, and adult obesity outcomes were defined from anthropometric assessments at birth and at 12 subsequent in-person interviews through 38 years of age. Individuals with higher genetic risk scores were more likely to be chronically obese in adulthood. Genetic risk first manifested as rapid growth during early childhood. Genetic risk was unrelated to birth weight. After birth, children at higher genetic risk gained weight more rapidly and reached adiposity rebound earlier and at a higher body mass index. In turn, these developmental phenotypes predicted adult obesity, mediating about half the genetic effect on adult obesity risk. Genetic associations with growth and obesity risk were independent of family history, indicating that the genetic risk score could provide novel information to clinicians. Genetic variation linked with obesity risk operates, in part, through accelerating growth in the early childhood years after birth. Etiological research and prevention strategies should target early childhood to address the obesity epidemic.

  19. The rapid growth of vertically aligned carbon nanotubes using laser heating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, J B; Jeong, S H; Jeong, M S; Lim, S C; Lee, I H; Lee, Y H

    2009-05-06

    Growth of densely packed vertically aligned carbon nanotubes (VA-CNTs) using laser-induced chemical vapor deposition with visible laser (lambda = 532 nm) irradiation at room temperature is reported. Using a multiple-catalyst layer (Fe/Al/Cr) on quartz as the substrate and an acetylene-hydrogen mixture as the precursor gas, VA-CNT pillars with 60 microm height and 4 microm diameter were grown at a high rate of around 1 microm s(-1) with good reproducibility. It is demonstrated that the fabrication of uniform pillar arrays of VA-CNTs can be achieved with a single irradiation for each pillar using LCVD with no annealing or preprocessing of the substrate. Here, laser fast heating is considered the primary mechanism facilitating the growth of VA-CNT pillars. Field emission characteristics of an array of VA-CNT pillars were then examined to investigate their potential application in vacuum electronic devices.

  20. Rapid growth of seed black holes in the early universe by supra-exponential accretion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Tal; Natarajan, Priyamvada

    2014-09-12

    Mass accretion by black holes (BHs) is typically capped at the Eddington rate, when radiation's push balances gravity's pull. However, even exponential growth at the Eddington-limited e-folding time t(E) ~ few × 0.01 billion years is too slow to grow stellar-mass BH seeds into the supermassive luminous quasars that are observed when the universe is 1 billion years old. We propose a dynamical mechanism that can trigger supra-exponential accretion in the early universe, when a BH seed is bound in a star cluster fed by the ubiquitous dense cold gas flows. The high gas opacity traps the accretion radiation, while the low-mass BH's random motions suppress the formation of a slowly draining accretion disk. Supra-exponential growth can thus explain the puzzling emergence of supermassive BHs that power luminous quasars so soon after the Big Bang. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  1. Rapid and Sustained Nuclear-Cytoplasmic ERK Oscillations Induced by Epidermal Growth Factor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shankaran, Harish; Ippolito, Danielle L.; Chrisler, William B.; Resat, Haluk; Bollinger, Nikki; Opresko, Lee K.; Wiley, H. S.

    2009-12-01

    Mathematical modeling has predicted that ERK activity should oscillate in response to cell stimulation, but this has never been observed. To explore this inconsistency, we expressed an ERK1-GFP fusion protein in mammary epithelial cells. Following EGF stimulation, we observed rapid and continuous ERK oscillations between the nucleus and cytoplasm with a periodicity of approximately 15 minutes. These oscillations were remarkably persistent (>45 cycles), displayed an asymmetric waveform, and were highly dependent on cell density, essentially disappearing at confluency. We conclude that the ERK pathway is an intrinsic oscillator. Although the functional implications of the observed oscillations are uncertain, this property can be used to continuously monitor ERK activity in single cells.

  2. Spontaneous hemorrhage simulating rapid growth of a benign subperiosteal plexiform neurofibroma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blitman, Netta M.; Levsky, Jeffrey M.; Thornhill, Beverly A.; Villanueva-Siles, Esperanza

    2007-01-01

    Spontaneous subperiosteal hemorrhage is a rare complication of von Recklinghausen's disease. There are few reports describing the MR imaging characteristics of this entity. Our case is unique among these as an underlying plexiform neurofibroma was visualized by MR imaging. We present a 12-year-old child with neurofibromatosis 1 who presented with a rapidly enlarging mass of the fibula. Surgery and pathology revealed subperiosteal hemorrhage into a benign, plexiform neurofibroma. The MR imaging features, pathogenesis and clinical implications of this entity are discussed. Recognition of this disease process and differentiating it from malignant transformation can prevent unnecessary surgery. (orig.)

  3. Optical Coherence Tomography in the UK Biobank Study - Rapid Automated Analysis of Retinal Thickness for Large Population-Based Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pearse A Keane

    Full Text Available To describe an approach to the use of optical coherence tomography (OCT imaging in large, population-based studies, including methods for OCT image acquisition, storage, and the remote, rapid, automated analysis of retinal thickness.In UK Biobank, OCT images were acquired between 2009 and 2010 using a commercially available "spectral domain" OCT device (3D OCT-1000, Topcon. Images were obtained using a raster scan protocol, 6 mm x 6 mm in area, and consisting of 128 B-scans. OCT image sets were stored on UK Biobank servers in a central repository, adjacent to high performance computers. Rapid, automated analysis of retinal thickness was performed using custom image segmentation software developed by the Topcon Advanced Biomedical Imaging Laboratory (TABIL. This software employs dual-scale gradient information to allow for automated segmentation of nine intraretinal boundaries in a rapid fashion.67,321 participants (134,642 eyes in UK Biobank underwent OCT imaging of both eyes as part of the ocular module. 134,611 images were successfully processed with 31 images failing segmentation analysis due to corrupted OCT files or withdrawal of subject consent for UKBB study participation. Average time taken to call up an image from the database and complete segmentation analysis was approximately 120 seconds per data set per login, and analysis of the entire dataset was completed in approximately 28 days.We report an approach to the rapid, automated measurement of retinal thickness from nearly 140,000 OCT image sets from the UK Biobank. In the near future, these measurements will be publically available for utilization by researchers around the world, and thus for correlation with the wealth of other data collected in UK Biobank. The automated analysis approaches we describe may be of utility for future large population-based epidemiological studies, clinical trials, and screening programs that employ OCT imaging.

  4. Rapid and highly efficient growth of graphene on copper by chemical vapor deposition of ethanol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lisi, Nicola, E-mail: nicola.lisi@enea.it [ENEA, Materials Technology Unit, Surface Technology Laboratory, Casaccia Research Centre, Via Anguillarese 301, 00123 Rome (Italy); Buonocore, Francesco; Dikonimos, Theodoros; Leoni, Enrico [ENEA, Materials Technology Unit, Surface Technology Laboratory, Casaccia Research Centre, Via Anguillarese 301, 00123 Rome (Italy); Faggio, Giuliana; Messina, Giacomo [Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell' Informazione, delle Infrastrutture e dell' Energia Sostenibile (DIIES), Università “Mediterranea” di Reggio Calabria, 89122 Reggio Calabria (Italy); Morandi, Vittorio; Ortolani, Luca [CNR-IMM Bologna, Via Gobetti 101, 40129 Bologna (Italy); Capasso, Andrea [ENEA, Materials Technology Unit, Surface Technology Laboratory, Casaccia Research Centre, Via Anguillarese 301, 00123 Rome (Italy)

    2014-11-28

    The growth of graphene by chemical vapor deposition on metal foils is a promising technique to deliver large-area films with high electron mobility. Nowadays, the chemical vapor deposition of hydrocarbons on copper is the most investigated synthesis method, although many other carbon precursors and metal substrates are used too. Among these, ethanol is a safe and inexpensive precursor that seems to offer favorable synthesis kinetics. We explored the growth of graphene on copper from ethanol, focusing on processes of short duration (up to one min). We investigated the produced films by electron microscopy, Raman and X-ray photoemission spectroscopy. A graphene film with high crystalline quality was found to cover the entire copper catalyst substrate in just 20 s, making ethanol appear as a more efficient carbon feedstock than methane and other commonly used precursors. - Highlights: • Graphene films were grown by fast chemical vapor deposition of ethanol on copper. • High-temperature/short-time growth produced highly crystalline graphene. • The copper substrate was entirely covered by a graphene film in just 20 s. • Addition of H{sub 2} had a negligible effect on the crystalline quality.

  5. Changing pattern of premature mortality burden over 6 years of rapid growth of the economy in suburban south-west China: 1998-2003.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Le; Chongsuvivatwong, Virasakdi; Geater, Alan

    2008-05-01

    This study was conducted in Kunming, the capital of Yunnan, a poor province in south-west China experiencing rapid economic growth. The study examined the short-term trend in premature mortality burden from common causes of death in a suburban region between 1998 and 2003. Years of life lost (YLL) per 1000 population and mortality rate per 100,000 population were calculated from medical death certificates, and broken down by cause of death, sex and year without age weighting but with a discounting rate of 3%. Non-communicable diseases contributed over 80% of all causes of YLL, with a slightly increasing trend. The combined rate for communicable, maternal, prenatal and nutritional deficiencies declined from 4.7 to 2.4 per 1000 population. Remarkably, declining trends in YLL were also seen for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, drug use and road traffic accidents, whereas increasing trends were seen for ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and liver cancer (males). The YLL rate for stroke, self-inflicted injuries, lung cancer and stomach cancer fluctuated over time. The region should focus on further control of IHD and liver cancer.

  6. Does Rapid and Sustained Economic Growth Lead to Convergence in Health Resources: The Case of China From 1980 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Di; Zhang, Donglan; Huang, Jiayan; Schweitzer, Stuart

    2016-01-01

    China's rapid and sustained economic growth offers an opportunity to ask whether the advantages of growth diffuse throughout an economy, or remain localized in areas where the growth has been the greatest. A critical policy area in China has been the health system, and health inequality has become an issue that has led the government to broaden national health insurance programs. This study investigates whether health system resources and performance have converged over the past 30 years across China's 31 provinces. To examine geographic variation of health system resources and performance at the provincial level, we measure the degree of sigma convergence and beta convergence in indicators of health system resources (structure), health services utilization (process), and outcome. All data are from officially published sources: the China Health Statistics Year Book and the China Statistics Year Book. Sigma convergence is found for resource indicators, whereas it is not observed for either process or outcome indicators, indicating that disparities only narrowed in health system resources. Beta convergence is found in most indicators, except for 2 procedure indicators, reflecting that provinces with poorer resources were catching up. Convergence found in this study probably reflects the mixed outcome of government input, and market forces. Thus, left alone, the equitable distribution of health care resources may not occur naturally during a period of economic growth. Governmental and societal efforts are needed to reduce geographic health variation and promote health equity. © The Author(s) 2016.

  7. Monitoring the welfare of polar bear populations in a rapidly changing Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwood, Todd C.; Duncan, Colleen G.; Patyk, Kelly A.; Sonsthagen, Sarah A.

    2017-01-01

    Most programs for monitoring the welfare of wildlife populations support efforts aimed at reaching discrete management objectives, like mitigating conflict with humans. While such programs can be effective, their limited scope may preclude systemic evaluations needed for large-scale conservation initiatives, like the recovery of at-risk species. We discuss select categories of metrics that can be used to monitor how polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are responding to the primary threat to their long-term persistence—loss of sea ice habitat due to the unabated rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG; e.g., CO2) concentrations—that can also provide information on ecosystem function and health. Monitoring key aspects of polar bear population dynamics, spatial behavior, health and resiliency can provide valuable insight into ecosystem state and function, and could be a powerful tool for achieving Arctic conservation objectives, particularly those that have transnational policy implications.

  8. An exponential growth model with decreasing r captures bottom-up effects on the population growth of Aphis glycines Matsumura (Hemiptera: Aphididae)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costamagna, A.C.; Werf, van der W.; Bianchi, F.J.J.A.; Landis, D.A.

    2007-01-01

    1 There is ample evidence that the life history and population dynamics of aphids are closely linked to plant phenology. Based on life table studies, it has been proposed that the growth of aphid populations could be modeled with an exponential growth model, with r decreasing linearly with time.

  9. Generation time, net reproductive rate, and growth in stage-age-structured populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steiner, Uli; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Coulson, Tim

    2014-01-01

    examples to show how reproductive timing Tc and level R0 are shaped by stage dynamics (individual trait changes), selection on the trait, and parent-offspring phenotypic correlation. We also show how population structure can affect dispersion in reproduction among ages and stages. These macroscopic...... to age-structured populations. Here we generalize this result to populations structured by stage and age by providing a new, unique measure of reproductive timing (Tc) that, along with net reproductive rate (R0), has a direct mathematical relationship to and approximates growth rate (r). We use simple...

  10. Growth rates and variances of unexploited wolf populations in dynamic equilibria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mech, L. David; Fieberg, John

    2015-01-01

    Several states have begun harvesting gray wolves (Canis lupus), and these states and various European countries are closely monitoring their wolf populations. To provide appropriate perspective for determining unusual or extreme fluctuations in their managed wolf populations, we analyzed natural, long-term, wolf-population-density trajectories totaling 130 years of data from 3 areas: Isle Royale National Park in Lake Superior, Michigan, USA; the east-central Superior National Forest in northeastern Minnesota, USA; and Denali National Park, Alaska, USA. Ratios between minimum and maximum annual sizes for 2 mainland populations (n = 28 and 46 yr) varied from 2.5–2.8, whereas for Isle Royale (n = 56 yr), the ratio was 6.3. The interquartile range (25th percentile, 75th percentile) for annual growth rates, Nt+1/Nt, was (0.88, 1.14), (0.92, 1.11), and (0.86, 1.12) for Denali, Superior National Forest, and Isle Royale respectively. We fit a density-independent model and a Ricker model to each time series, and in both cases we considered the potential for observation error. Mean growth rates from the density-independent model were close to 0 for all 3 populations, with 95% credible intervals including 0. We view the estimated model parameters, including those describing annual variability or process variance, as providing useful summaries of the trajectories of these populations. The estimates of these natural wolf population parameters can serve as benchmarks for comparison with those of recovering wolf populations. Because our study populations were all from circumscribed areas, fluctuations in them represent fluctuations in densities (i.e., changes in numbers are not confounded by changes in occupied area as would be the case with populations expanding their range, as are wolf populations in many states).

  11. Temperature Effect Study on Growth and Survival of Pathogenic Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Jinjiang Oyster (Crassostrea rivularis with Rapid Count Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The growth of Vibrio parahaemolyticus (V. parahaemolyticus in oysters during postharvest storage increases the possibility of its infection in humans. In this work, to investigate the growth or survival profiles in different media, pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus in APW, Jinjiang oyster (JO, Crassostrea rivularis slurry, and live JO were studied under different temperatures. All the strain populations were counted through our double-layer agar plate (DLAP method. In APW, the pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus showed continuous growth under 15, 25, and 35°C, while a decline in behavior was displayed under 5°C. The similar survival trend of pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus in JO slurry and live JO was observed under 5, 25, and 35°C, except the delayed growth or decline profile compared to APW. Under 15°C, they displayed decline and growth profile in JO slurry and live JO, respectively. These results indicate the different sensitivity of pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus in these matrices to temperature variation. Furthermore, nonpathogenic V. parahaemolyticus displayed little difference in survival profiles when inoculated in live JO under corresponding temperatures. The results indicate that inhibition or promotion effect could be regulated under different storage temperature for both pathogenic and nonpathogenic strains. Besides, the DLAP method showed the obvious quickness and efficiency during the bacteria count.

  12. Nutritional status and growth of children on macrobiotic diets : a population-based study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dagnelie, P.C.

    1988-01-01

    This thesis reports on the relationship between diet, growth, blood chemistry, psychomotor development, and clinical findings in the Dutch population of children on macrobiotic diets.- The macrobiotic diet mainly consisted of cereals, pulses and vegetables with small additions of seaweeds,

  13. The Effect of Population Growth upon the Quantity of Education Children Receive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Julian L.; Pilarski, Adam M.

    1979-01-01

    There is indeed some negative effect of population growth on the amount of education in developing nations, but the effect is less severe than has been thought. This finding is in sharp contrast to previous conclusions drawn from similar cross-national data. Available from Review of Economics and Statistics, M-8 Littauer Center, Cambridge, MA…

  14. Growth strategy of heterotrophic bacterial population along successional sequence on spoil of brown coal colliery substrate

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krištůfek, Václav; Elhottová, Dana; Chroňáková, Alica; Dostálková, I.; Picek, T.; Kalčík, Jiří

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 5 (2005), s. 427-435 ISSN 0015-5632 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA526/03/1259 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60660521 Keywords : growth strategy * heterotrophic bacterial population * brown coal colliery spoil Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.918, year: 2005

  15. Effects of population density on the growth and egg-laying capacity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effects of the population density of adult African giant land snail, Archachatina marginata on the egg-laying capacity and the growth of the brooders and hatchlings were investigated for 9 months. Ten culture pens were stocked with snails at 20%, 40%, 60%, 80% and 100% capacity with each group in 2 replicates.

  16. Teaching Population Growth Using Cultures of Vinegar Eels, "Turbatrix aceti" (Nematoda)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Robert L.

    2005-01-01

    A simple laboratory exercise is presented that follows the population growth of the common vinegar eel, "Turbatrix aceti" (Nematoda), in a microcosm using a simple culture medium. It lends itself to an exercise in a single semester course. (Contains 4 figures.)

  17. Calculating second derivatives of population growth rates for ecology and evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shyu, E.; Caswell, H.

    2014-01-01

    Second derivatives of the population growth rate measure the curvature of its response to demographic, physiological or environmental parameters. The second derivatives quantify the response of sensitivity results to perturbations, provide a classification of types of selection and provide one way

  18. Population Growth Rates: Connecting Mathematics to Studies of Society and the Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ninbet, Steven; Hurley, Gabrielle; Weldon, Elizabeth

    2006-01-01

    This article reports on the teaching of a unit of lessons which integrates mathematics with studies of society and the environment. The unit entitled "Population Growth Rates" was taught to a double class of Year 6 students by a team of three teachers. The objectives of the unit were: (1) to provide students with a real-world context in…

  19. Growth of the human lens in the Indian adult population: Preliminary observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashik Mohamed

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: The eye lens grows throughout life by the addition of new cells inside the surrounding capsule. How this growth affects the properties of the lens is essential for understanding disorders such as cataract and presbyopia. Aims: To examine growth of the human lens in the Indian population and compare this with the growth in Western populations by measuring in vitro dimensions together with wet and dry weights. Settings and Design: The study was conducted at the research wing of a tertiary eye care center in South India and the study design was prospective. Materials and Methods: Lenses were removed from eye bank eyes and their dimensions measured with a digital caliper. They were then carefully blotted dry and weighed before being placed in 5% buffered formalin. After 1 week fixation, the lenses were dried at 80 °C until constant weight was achieved. The constant weight was noted as the dry weight of the lens. Statistical Analysis Used: Lens parameters were analyzed as a function of age using linear and logarithmic regression methods. Results: Data were obtained for 251 lenses, aged 16-93 years, within a median postmortem time of 22 h. Both wet and dry weights increased linearly at 1.24 and 0.44 mg/year, respectively, throughout adult life. The dimensions also increased continuously throughout this time. Conclusions: Over the age range examined, lens growth in the Indian population is very similar to that in Western populations.

  20. Effects of growth curve plasticity on size-structured population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Lai; Lin, Zhigui; Pedersen, Michael

    2011-01-01

    The physiological-structured population models assume that a fixed fraction of energy intake is utilized for individual growth and maintenance while the remaining for adult fertility. The assumption results in two concerns: energy loss for juveniles and a reproduction dilemma for adults. The dile...

  1. Population growth and the decline of natural Southern yellow pine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    David B. South; Edward R. Buckner

    2004-01-01

    Population growth has created social and economic pressures that affect the sustainability of naturally regenerated southern yellow pine forests. Major causes of this decline include (1) a shift in public attitudes regarding woods burning (from one favoring it to one that favors fire suppression) and (2) an increase in land values (especially near urban centers). The...

  2. Female strobili incidence in a Minnesota population of black spruce: heritability and correlation with height growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Dana Nelson; C. A. Mohn

    1989-01-01

    Significant family variation in female strobili incidence, ripeness-to-flower and production were found in a Minnesota black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) population tested at four locations. Heritability estimates indicated that gain in early flowering from selection would be possible. Height growth through age 12 years was positively correlated (genetic and...

  3. Connecting phenological predictions with population growth rates for mountain pine beetle, an outbreak insect

    Science.gov (United States)

    James A. Powell; Barbara J. Bentz

    2009-01-01

    It is expected that a significant impact of global warming will be disruption of phenology as environmental cues become disassociated from their selective impacts. However there are few, if any, models directly connecting phenology with population growth rates. In this paper we discuss connecting a distributional model describing mountain pine beetle phenology with a...

  4. Does pollen limitation affect population growth of the endangered Dracocephalum austriacum L.?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Castro, Sílvia; Dostálek, Tomáš; van der Meer, S.; Oostermeijer, G.; Münzbergová, Zuzana

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 57, č. 1 (2015), s. 105-116 ISSN 1438-3896 R&D Projects: GA ČR GP13-10850P; GA ČR GAP505/10/0593 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : Dracocephalum austriacum * pollination ecology * population growth rate Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 1.698, year: 2015

  5. Population growth in a wild bird is buffered against phenological mismatch

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reed, T.; Grotan, V.; Jenouvrier, S.; Saether, B.E.; Visser, M.E.

    2013-01-01

    road-scale environmental changes are altering patterns of natural selection in the wild, but few empirical studies have quantified the demographic cost of sustained directional selection in response to these changes. We tested whether population growth in a wild bird is negatively affected by

  6. Controlling Growth High Uniformity Indium Selenide (In2Se3) Nanowires via the Rapid Thermal Annealing Process at Low Temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Ya-Chu; Hung, Yu-Chen; Wang, Chiu-Yen

    2017-09-15

    High uniformity Au-catalyzed indium selenide (In 2 Se 3) nanowires are grown with the rapid thermal annealing (RTA) treatment via the vapor-liquid-solid (VLS) mechanism. The diameters of Au-catalyzed In 2 Se 3 nanowires could be controlled with varied thicknesses of Au films, and the uniformity of nanowires is improved via a fast pre-annealing rate, 100 °C/s. Comparing with the slower heating rate, 0.1 °C/s, the average diameters and distributions (standard deviation, SD) of In 2 Se 3 nanowires with and without the RTA process are 97.14 ± 22.95 nm (23.63%) and 119.06 ± 48.75 nm (40.95%), respectively. The in situ annealing TEM is used to study the effect of heating rate on the formation of Au nanoparticles from the as-deposited Au film. The results demonstrate that the average diameters and distributions of Au nanoparticles with and without the RTA process are 19.84 ± 5.96 nm (30.00%) and about 22.06 ± 9.00 nm (40.80%), respectively. It proves that the diameter size, distribution, and uniformity of Au-catalyzed In 2 Se 3 nanowires are reduced and improved via the RTA pre-treated. The systemic study could help to control the size distribution of other nanomaterials through tuning the annealing rate, temperatures of precursor, and growth substrate to control the size distribution of other nanomaterials. Graphical Abstract Rapid thermal annealing (RTA) process proved that it can uniform the size distribution of Au nanoparticles, and then it can be used to grow the high uniformity Au-catalyzed In 2 Se 3 nanowires via the vapor-liquid-solid (VLS) mechanism. Comparing with the general growth condition, the heating rate is slow, 0.1 °C/s, and the growth temperature is a relatively high growth temperature, > 650 °C. RTA pre-treated growth substrate can form smaller and uniform Au nanoparticles to react with the In 2 Se 3 vapor and produce the high uniformity In 2 Se 3 nanowires. The in situ annealing TEM is used to realize the effect of heating

  7. Rapid growth in early childhood associated with young adult overweight and obesity--evidence from a community based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutharsan, Ratneswary; O'Callaghan, Michael J; Williams, Gail; Najman, Jake M; Mamun, Abdullah A

    2015-08-08

    Rapid weight gain in early life may increase the risk of overweight and obesity in adulthood. We investigated the association between the rate of growth during early childhood and the development of overweight and obesity in young adults. We used a prospective cohort study of 2077 young adults who were born between 1981 and 1984 in Brisbane, Australia and had anthropometry measurements available at birth, 6 months, 5 years, 14 years and 21 years of age. The associations of rate of early growth with body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and their categories at 21 years were studied using multivariate analysis. We found that rapid weight gain [> + 0.67 standard deviation score (SDS)] in the first 5 years of life was associated with young adults' overweight status (BMI: adjusted OR = 2.35, 95% CI, 1.82-3.03; WC: adjusted OR = 2.20, 95% CI, 1.65-2.95). We also observed that slow weight gain in the first 5 years of age (young adulthood, in contrast slow weight gain was inversely associated with weight status at 21 years.

  8. Rapid growth of zinc oxide nanobars in presence of electric field by physical vapor deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jouya, Mehraban; Taromian, Fahime; Siami, Simin

    2017-12-01

    In this contribution, electric field has some effects to increase growth for specific time duration on zinc oxide (ZnO) nanobars. First, the zinc (Zn) thin film has been prepared by 235,000 V/m electric field assisted physical vapor deposition (PVD) at vacuum of 1.33 × 10-5 mbar. Second, strong electric field of 134,000 V/m has been used in ambient for growing ZnO nanobars in term of the time include 2.5 and 10 h. The performances of the ZnO nanostructure in absence and presence of electric field have been determined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD). The results of XRD analysis showed that ZnO has a hexagonal bars structure and a strongly preferred (101) orientation which is strongest than without applying electric field. SEM analysis revealed that physical vapored ZnO thin film in presence of electric field are densely packed with uniform morphological, thinner and denser in distribution. Electric field effect for ZnO growth in 2.5 h is better than it in the 2.5 h without electric field but by passing the time the media influence has good power almost as same as electric field. Through this electric field in PVD, the compact and uniform Zn film has been achieved which is less diameter than ordinary PVD method. Finally, we carry out a series of experiments to grow different-orientation ZnO nanobars with less than 100 nm in diameter, which are the time saving process in base of PVD ever reported. Therefore, the significant conclusion in usage electric field is reducing time of growth.

  9. Rapid gut growth but persistent delay in digestive function in the postnatal period of preterm pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Carl Frederik; Thymann, Thomas; Andersen, Anders Daniel

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Preterm infants often tolerate full enteral nutrition few weeks after birth but it is not known how this is related to gut maturation. Using pigs as models, we hypothesized that intestinal structure and digestive function are similar in preterm and term individuals at 3-4 weeks after...... to term pigs. CONCLUSION: Intestinal structure shows a remarkable growth adaptation in the first week after preterm birth, especially with enteral nutrition, while some digestive functions remain immature until at least 3-4 weeks. It is important to identify feeding regimens that stimulate intestinal...

  10. Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abel, Guy J; Barakat, Bilal; Kc, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2016-12-13

    Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth.

  11. Growth Indicators of a 48-Clone Sugar Cane Population (Saccharum spp. with Forage Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoslen Fernández Gálvez

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper was to determine growth indicators in a 48-clone sugar cane population, with promising phenotypical features for forage production. The following indicators were assessed: leaf area (A, leaf area index (LA1; leaf area ratio (LAR; specific leaf area (SLA; leaf weight ratio (LWR; crop growth rate (CGR; net assimilation rate (NAR; relative growth rate in weight (RGR; biomass production speed (G; leaf area duration (LAD; and biomass duration (Z, monthly (187 - 370 days. The minimum, the mean, the maximum values, and the population variance were determined for all cutting ages and the variables assessed. The results achieved have provided quantitative values that can be used as reference for selection and assessment of forage genotypes for ruminant nutrition.

  12. Individualism in plant populations: using stochastic differential equations to model individual neighbourhood-dependent plant growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Qiming; Schneider, Manuel K; Pitchford, Jonathan W

    2008-08-01

    We study individual plant growth and size hierarchy formation in an experimental population of Arabidopsis thaliana, within an integrated analysis that explicitly accounts for size-dependent growth, size- and space-dependent competition, and environmental stochasticity. It is shown that a Gompertz-type stochastic differential equation (SDE) model, involving asymmetric competition kernels and a stochastic term which decreases with the logarithm of plant weight, efficiently describes individual plant growth, competition, and variability in the studied population. The model is evaluated within a Bayesian framework and compared to its deterministic counterpart, and to several simplified stochastic models, using distributional validation. We show that stochasticity is an important determinant of size hierarchy and that SDE models outperform the deterministic model if and only if structural components of competition (asymmetry; size- and space-dependence) are accounted for. Implications of these results are discussed in the context of plant ecology and in more general modelling situations.

  13. Uncertainty in population growth rates: determining confidence intervals from point estimates of parameters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleanor S Devenish Nelson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species.

  14. JOB DISCRIMINATION AGAINST WOMEN AND ENDOGENOUS POPULATION CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin ZHANG

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study examines economic growth and population change with discrimination against women in the labor market within the analytical framework of Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The study models dynamic interactions between wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, children caring, and leisure, population change with endogenous birth and mortality rates with gender discrimination. The production technology and markets are built on Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The basic mechanisms for population changes in the Barro-Becker fertility choice model and the Haavelmo population model are integrated to model the population change. This study also takes account of discrimination against woman in the labor market. We synthesize these dynamic forces in a compact framework by applying Zhang’s utility function. The model properties are studied by simulation. We find equilibrium points and illustrate motion of the dynamic system. We also examine the effects of changes in the discrimination against woman, the propensity to save, woman’s propensity to pursue leisure activities, the propensity to have children, woman’s human capital and man’s emotional involvement in children caring.

  15. Fertility in Alberta in a Context of Rapid Economic Growth, 1997-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Trovato

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Historically, birth rates in Alberta have followed closely the trajectory of change experienced by the other Canadian provinces. Its total fertility rate fell during the low point of the 1930s; it increased during the post-War baby boom in the 1950s and sixties, and thereafter fell to subreplacement levels beginning in the mid 1970s. In recent years, especially since the early 2000s, the birth rate in Alberta has unexpectedly increased, such that by 2007, it had reached 1.90 children per woman - not far from the 2.1 level needed for generational replacement in the long term. During this same period both national and provincial fertility rates fluctuated at levels below those of Alberta (except Saskatchewan and Manitoba, whose rates have been higher. In this study, I examine the historical pattern of fertility change in Alberta, noting similarities and differences with the other provinces. I then look at the association of selected macro level factors (marriage, unemployment, wages, female labour force participation with change in total and parity-specific birth rates between 1997 and 2007, a period of unprecedented economic growth in Alberta. The statistical results show that although marriage is not significantly correlated with change in fertility rates, male and female wages and female labour force participation all show associations consistent with a procyclical interpretation of fertility change - that is, periods of economic growth are conducive to fertility increase whereas bad economic times are associated with reduced fertility.

  16. Fertility in Alberta in a Context of Rapid Economic Growth, 1997-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Trovato

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Historically, birth rates in Alberta have followed closely the trajectory of change experienced by the other Canadian provinces. Its total fertility rate fell during the low point of the 1930s; it increased during the post-War baby boom in the 1950s and sixties, and thereafter fell to sub-replacement levels beginning in the mid 1970s. In recent years, especially since the early 2000s, the birth rate in Alberta has unexpectedly increased, such that by 2007, it had reached 1.90 children per woman---not far from the 2.1 level needed for generational replacement in the long term. During this same period both national and provincial fertility rates fluctuated at levels below those of Alberta (except Saskatchewan and Manitoba, whose rates have been higher. In this study, I examine the historical pattern of fertility change in Alberta, noting similarities and differences with the other provinces. I then look at the association of selected macro level factors (marriage, unemployment, wages, female labour force participation with change in total and parity-specific birth rates between 1997 and 2007, a period of unprecedented economic growth in Alberta. The statistical results show that although marriage is not significantly correlated with change in fertility rates, male and female wages and female labour force participation all show associations consistent with a procyclical interpretation of fertility change --- that is, periods of economic growth are conducive to fertility increase whereas bad economic times lead to reduced fertility.

  17. Rapid growth of ZnO hexagonal prism crystals by direct microwave heating

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHU Zhenqi; ZHOU Jian; LIU Guizhen; REN Zhiguo

    2008-01-01

    ZnO hexagonal prism crystals were synthesized from ZnO powders by microwave heating in a short time (within 20 min) without any metal catalyst or transport agent.Zinc oxide raw materials were made by evaporating from the high-temperature zone in an enclosure atmosphere and crystals were grown on the self-source substrate.The inherent asymmetry in microwave heating provides the temperature gradient for crystal growth.Substrate and temperature distribution in the oven show significant effects on the growth of the ZnO crystal.The morphologies demonstrate that these samples are pure hexagonal prism crystals with maximum 80 μm in diameter and 600 μm in length,which possess a well faceted end and side surface.X-ray diffraction (XRD) reveals that these samples are pure crystals.The photoluminescence (PL) exhibits strong ultraviolet emission at room temperature,indicating potential applications for short-wave light-emitting photonic devices.

  18. Monitoring of Water Spectral Pattern Reveals Differences in Probiotics Growth When Used for Rapid Bacteria Selection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandar Slavchev

    Full Text Available Development of efficient screening method coupled with cell functionality evaluation is highly needed in contemporary microbiology. The presented novel concept and fast non-destructive method brings in to play the water spectral pattern of the solution as a molecular fingerprint of the cell culture system. To elucidate the concept, NIR spectroscopy with Aquaphotomics were applied to monitor the growth of sixteen Lactobacillus bulgaricus one Lactobacillus pentosus and one Lactobacillus gasseri bacteria strains. Their growth rate, maximal optical density, low pH and bile tolerances were measured and further used as a reference data for analysis of the simultaneously acquired spectral data. The acquired spectral data in the region of 1100-1850nm was subjected to various multivariate data analyses - PCA, OPLS-DA, PLSR. The results showed high accuracy of bacteria strains classification according to their probiotic strength. Most informative spectral fingerprints covered the first overtone of water, emphasizing the relation of water molecular system to cell functionality.

  19. Effect of Cadmium on the population growth of the marine diatom Chaetoceros gracilis Schutt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovana Vera

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Phytoplankton constitutes the base of the trophic webs in the marine environment, so it is important to know the possible effects of pollutants on the algal populations. In the present paper the effect of cadmium on the population growth of the diatom Chaetoceros gracilis was assessed. The microalgae were cultured in the a modified “f/2” Guillard medium, and were exposed to different concentrations of cadmium between 50 and 100000 µg.–1, which produced an inhibitory effect from 20% to 99% on the population growth of Chaetoceros gracilis. Based on the dose (cadmium-response (inhibition relationship, a mean effective concentration (EC50% equal to 591 µg.L–1 of cadmium was obtained.

  20. Rapid impact testing for quantitative assessment of large populations of bridges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yun; Prader, John; DeVitis, John; Deal, Adrienne; Zhang, Jian; Moon, Franklin; Aktan, A. Emin

    2011-04-01

    Although the widely acknowledged shortcomings of visual inspection have fueled significant advances in the areas of non-destructive evaluation and structural health monitoring (SHM) over the last several decades, the actual practice of bridge assessment has remained largely unchanged. The authors believe the lack of adoption, especially of SHM technologies, is related to the 'single structure' scenarios that drive most research. To overcome this, the authors have developed a concept for a rapid single-input, multiple-output (SIMO) impact testing device that will be capable of capturing modal parameters and estimating flexibility/deflection basins of common highway bridges during routine inspections. The device is composed of a trailer-mounted impact source (capable of delivering a 50 kip impact) and retractable sensor arms, and will be controlled by an automated data acquisition, processing and modal parameter estimation software. The research presented in this paper covers (a) the theoretical basis for SISO, SIMO and MIMO impact testing to estimate flexibility, (b) proof of concept numerical studies using a finite element model, and (c) a pilot implementation on an operating highway bridge. Results indicate that the proposed approach can estimate modal flexibility within a few percent of static flexibility; however, the estimated modal flexibility matrix is only reliable for the substructures associated with the various SIMO tests. To overcome this shortcoming, a modal 'stitching' approach for substructure integration to estimate the full Eigen vector matrix is developed, and preliminary results of these methods are also presented.

  1. Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

  2. The genetic structure of Turnip mosaic virus population reveals the rapid expansion of a new emergent lineage in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiangdong; Zhu, Tiansheng; Yin, Xiao; Zhang, Chengling; Chen, Jia; Tian, Yanping; Liu, Jinliang

    2017-08-29

    Turnip mosaic virus (TuMV) is one of the most widespread and economically important virus infecting both crop and ornamental species of the family Brassicaceae. TuMV isolates can be classified to five phylogenetic lineages, basal-B, basal-BR, Asian-BR, world-B and Orchis. To understand the genetic structure of TuMV from radish in China, the 3'-terminal genome of 90 TuMV isolates were determined and analyzed with other available Chinese isolates. The results showed that the Chinese TuMV isolates from radish formed three groups: Asian-BR, basal-BR and world-B. More than half of these isolates (52.54%) were clustered to basal-BR group, and could be further divided into three sub-groups. The TuMV basal-BR isolates in the sub-groups I and II were genetically homologous with Japanese ones, while those in sub-group III formed a distinct lineage. Sub-populations of TuMV basal-BR II and III were new emergent and in a state of expansion. The Chinese TuMV radish populations were under negative selection. Gene flow between TuMV populations from Tai'an, Weifang and Changchun was frequent. The genetic structure of Turnip mosaic virus population reveals the rapid expansion of a new emergent lineage in China.

  3. Dynamics of urban population growth in Nigeria: The role of repeated migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adepoju, A

    1976-02-01

    The paper examines the direct contribution of migration to the growth of the urban population both in terms of its mobility and stability components with special reference to Western Nigeria. The basis of the paper is a survey of urban migration conducted by the author in 1971-1972; the findings are supplemented where necessary by the 1952-1953 and 1963 census figures. Migration is a major factor in the growth of the urban population. The direct contribution by migrants to such growth can be traced to the following groups: the initial streams of migrants, the follow-up migrants and the potentially mobile migrants attracted from the migrants' communities of origin to the towns. Repeated migration by some migrants, particularly the young, the educated and the white collar-workers, are also major factors in the urban population growth. Such repeated migrations are predominantly urban to urban or turnover moves. The high mobility rate among a group of migrants tends to conceal the relative stability among the migrant population as a whole. Repeated migrants usually stay between 3 and 5 years at each destination, before moving on. A substantial proportion of migrants, mainly farmers, the less educated and the old, are relatively stable in the survey towns (Ife and Oshogho). The urban residence ration indices also indicate an increase in the rate of immigration, mainly of young persons, to the towns. The youthful age structure, the age selectivity in migration and the marital status of the young migrants tend to exacerbate the masculinity in the form of unbalanced sex ratio prevailing in most urban centers. The urban population is unlikely to be stable. The tendency for old migrants of rural origin to return to their villages at the end of their migration career and for contemporary migrants to consist predominantly of youths, will for the next generation or 2 lead to a young and unstable urban population.

  4. Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gedir, Jay V.; Cain, James W.; Harris, Grant; Turnbull, Trey T.

    2015-01-01

    Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly

  5. Exploring features and opportunities of rapid-growth wine firms in Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge J. Román

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available While much has been studied regarding the wine industry in Spain and France, little has been studied in developing countries. The aim of this work is to study the characteristics of dynamic wine firms in Chile. This paper presents qualitative research and reports six cases of wine companies, where several variables are analyzed according to Barringer, Jones and Neubaum framework. These variables include prior experience, founders’ knowledge regarding large company management, the use of strategic-planning systems and the use of new technology in the majority of its production. The results of this research could prove insightful for wine entrepreneurs looking to enhance their growth, based on greater differentiation and innovation, and not only on being competitive in pricing.

  6. Rapidly increasing body mass index among children, adolescents and young adults in a transitioning population, South Africa, 2008-15.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartorius, B; Sartorius, K; Taylor, M; Aagaard-Hansen, J; Dukhi, N; Day, C; Ndlovu, N; Slotow, R; Hofman, K

    2017-12-14

    There is a global epidemic of overweight and obesity; however, this rate of increase is even greater in some low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). South Africa (SA) is undergoing rapid socioeconomic and demographic changes that have triggered a rapid nutrition transition. The paper focuses on the recent rate of change of body mass index (BMI) among children, adolescents and young adults, further stratified by key sociodemographic factors. We analysed mean BMI of 28 247 individuals (including children) from 7301 households by age and year, from anthropometric data from four national cross-sectional (repeated panel) surveys using non-linear fitted curves and associated 95% confidence intervals. From 2008 to 2015, there was rapid rise in mean BMI in the 6-25 age band, with the highest risk (3-4+ BMI unit increase) among children aged 8-10 years. The increase was largely among females in urban areas and of middle-high socioeconomic standing. Prominent gains were also observed in certain rural areas, with extensive geographical heterogeneity across the country. We have demonstrated a major deviation from the current understanding of patterns of BMI increase, with a rate of increase substantially greater in the developing world context compared with the global pattern. This population-wide effect will have major consequences for national development as the epidemic of related non-communicable disease unfolds, and will overtax the national health care budget. Our refined understanding highlights that risks are further compounded for certain groups/places, and emphasizes that urgent geographical and population-targeted interventions are necessary. These interventions could include a sugar tax, clearer food labelling, revised school feeding programmes and mandatory bans on unhealthy food marketing to children.The scenario unfolding in South Africa will likely be followed in other LMICs. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the

  7. Rapid blockade of telomerase activity and tumor cell growth by the DPL lipofection of ribbon antisense to hTR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajpai, Arun K; Park, Jeong-Hoh; Moon, Ik-Jae; Kang, Hyungu; Lee, Yun-Han; Doh, Kyung-Oh; Suh, Seong-Il; Chang, Byeong-Churl; Park, Jong-Gu

    2005-09-29

    Ribbon antisense (RiAS) to the hTR RNA, a component of the telomerase complex, was employed to inhibit telomerase activity and cancer cell growth. The antisense molecule, hTR-RiAS, combined with enhanced cellular uptake was shown to effectively inhibit telomerase activity and cause rapid cell death in various cancer cell lines. When cancer cells were treated with hTR-RiAS, the level of hTR RNA was reduced by more than 90% accompanied with reduction in telomerase activity. When checked for cancer cell viability, cancer cell lines treated with hTR-RiAS using DNA+Peptide+Lipid complex showed 70-80% growth inhibition in 3 days. The reduced cell viability was due to apoptosis as the percentage of cells exhibiting the sub-G0 arrest and DNA fragmentation increased after antisense treatment. Further, when subcutaneous tumors of a colon cancer cell line (SW480) were treated intratumorally with hTR-RiAS, tumor growth was markedly suppressed with almost total ablation of hTR RNA in the tumor tissue. Cells in the tumor tissue were also found to undergo apoptosis after hTR-RiAS treatment. These results suggest that hTR-RiAS is an effective anticancer reagent, with a potential for broad efficacy to diverse malignant tumors.

  8. Rapid colorimetric sensing of tetracycline antibiotics with in situ growth of gold nanoparticles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shen, Li; Chen, Jing; Li, Na; He, Pingli; Li, Zhen

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Tetracyclines directly reduce aurate into gold nanoparticles. • Gold nanoparticles showed characteristic plamson absorbance at 526 nm. • Quantitative detection of tetracyclines with the colorimetric assay. • Tetracyclines spiked urine samples can be detected with the assay. - Abstract: A colorimetric assay utilizing the formation of gold nanoparticles was developed to detect tetracycline antibiotics in fluidic samples. Tetracycline antibiotics showed the capability of directly reducing aurate salts into atomic gold which form gold nanoparticles spontaneously under proper conditions. The resulted gold nanoparticles showed characteristic plasmon absorbance at 526 nm, which can be visualized by naked eyes or with a spectrophotometer. UV–vis absorbance of the resulted gold nanoparticles is correlated directly with the concentrations of tetracycline antibiotics in the solution, allowing for quantitative colorimetric detection of tetracycline antibiotics. Reaction conditions, such as pH, temperature, reaction time, and ionic strength were optimized. Sensitivity of the colorimetric assay can be enhanced by the addition of gold nanoparticle seeds, a LOD as low as 20 ng mL −1 can be achieved with the help of seed particles. The colorimetric assay showed minimum interference from ethanol, methanol, urea, glucose, and other antibiotics such as sulfonamides, amino glycosides etc. Validity of the method was also evaluated on urine samples spiked with tetracycline antibiotics. The method provides a broad spectrum detection method for rapid and sensitive detection of reductive substances such as tetracycline antibiotics in liquid and biological samples

  9. Rapid colorimetric sensing of tetracycline antibiotics with in situ growth of gold nanoparticles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Li; Chen, Jing; Li, Na; He, Pingli; Li, Zhen

    2014-08-11

    A colorimetric assay utilizing the formation of gold nanoparticles was developed to detect tetracycline antibiotics in fluidic samples. Tetracycline antibiotics showed the capability of directly reducing aurate salts into atomic gold which form gold nanoparticles spontaneously under proper conditions. The resulted gold nanoparticles showed characteristic plasmon absorbance at 526 nm, which can be visualized by naked eyes or with a spectrophotometer. UV-vis absorbance of the resulted gold nanoparticles is correlated directly with the concentrations of tetracycline antibiotics in the solution, allowing for quantitative colorimetric detection of tetracycline antibiotics. Reaction conditions, such as pH, temperature, reaction time, and ionic strength were optimized. Sensitivity of the colorimetric assay can be enhanced by the addition of gold nanoparticle seeds, a LOD as low as 20 ng mL(-1) can be achieved with the help of seed particles. The colorimetric assay showed minimum interference from ethanol, methanol, urea, glucose, and other antibiotics such as sulfonamides, amino glycosides etc. Validity of the method was also evaluated on urine samples spiked with tetracycline antibiotics. The method provides a broad spectrum detection method for rapid and sensitive detection of reductive substances such as tetracycline antibiotics in liquid and biological samples. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Rapid colorimetric sensing of tetracycline antibiotics with in situ growth of gold nanoparticles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen, Li [Logistics School, Beijing Wuzi University, Beijing 101149 (China); Chen, Jing; Li, Na [Logistics School, Beijing Wuzi University, Beijing 101149 (China); He, Pingli [State Key Laboratory of Animal Nutrition, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100094 (China); Li, Zhen [State Key Laboratory of Plant Physiology and Biochemistry, College of Biological Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193 (China)

    2014-08-11

    Highlights: • Tetracyclines directly reduce aurate into gold nanoparticles. • Gold nanoparticles showed characteristic plamson absorbance at 526 nm. • Quantitative detection of tetracyclines with the colorimetric assay. • Tetracyclines spiked urine samples can be detected with the assay. - Abstract: A colorimetric assay utilizing the formation of gold nanoparticles was developed to detect tetracycline antibiotics in fluidic samples. Tetracycline antibiotics showed the capability of directly reducing aurate salts into atomic gold which form gold nanoparticles spontaneously under proper conditions. The resulted gold nanoparticles showed characteristic plasmon absorbance at 526 nm, which can be visualized by naked eyes or with a spectrophotometer. UV–vis absorbance of the resulted gold nanoparticles is correlated directly with the concentrations of tetracycline antibiotics in the solution, allowing for quantitative colorimetric detection of tetracycline antibiotics. Reaction conditions, such as pH, temperature, reaction time, and ionic strength were optimized. Sensitivity of the colorimetric assay can be enhanced by the addition of gold nanoparticle seeds, a LOD as low as 20 ng mL{sup −1} can be achieved with the help of seed particles. The colorimetric assay showed minimum interference from ethanol, methanol, urea, glucose, and other antibiotics such as sulfonamides, amino glycosides etc. Validity of the method was also evaluated on urine samples spiked with tetracycline antibiotics. The method provides a broad spectrum detection method for rapid and sensitive detection of reductive substances such as tetracycline antibiotics in liquid and biological samples.

  11. Impact of population and economic growth on carbon emissions in Taiwan using an analytic tool STIRPAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong-Chao Yeh

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Carbon emission has increasingly become an issue of global concern because of climate change. Unfortunately, Taiwan was listed as top 20 countries of carbon emission in 2014. In order to provide appropriate measures to control carbon emission, it appears that there is an urgent need to address how such factors as population and economic growth impact the emission of carbon dioxide in any developing countries. In addition to total population, both the percentages of population living in urban area (i.e., urbanization percentage, and non-dependent population may also serve as limiting factors. On the other hand, the total energy-driven gross domestic production (GDP and the percentage of GDP generated by the manufacturing industries are assessed to see their respective degree of impact on carbon emission. Therefore, based on the past national data in the period 1990–2014 in Taiwan, an analytic tool of Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT was employed to see how well those aforementioned factors can describe their individual potential impact on global warming, which is measured by the total amount of carbon emission into the atmosphere. Seven scenarios of STIRPAT model were proposed and tested statistically for the significance of each proposed model. As a result, two models were suggested to predict the impact of carbon emission due to population and economic growth by the year 2025 in Taiwan.

  12. Genetic variation in Pinus strobiformis growth and drought tolerance from southwestern US populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, Betsy A; Waring, Kristen M; Kolb, Thomas E

    2016-10-01

    The persistence of some tree species is threatened by combinations of novel abiotic and biotic stressors. To examine the hypothesis that Pinus strobiformis Engelm., a tree threatened by an invasive forest pathogen and a changing climate, exhibits intraspecific genetic variation in adaptive traits, we conducted a common garden study of seedlings at one location with two watering regimes using 24 populations. Four key findings emerged: (i) growth and physiological traits were low to moderately differentiated among populations but differentiation was high for some traits in water-stressed populations; (ii) seedlings from warmer climates grew larger, had higher stomatal density and were more water-use efficient (as measured by the carbon isotope ratio) than populations from colder climates; (iii) seedlings from the northern edge of the species' distribution had lower water-use efficiency, higher stomatal conductance, slower growth and longer survival in a lethal drought experiment compared with seedlings from more southern populations; and (iv) based on non-metric multidimensional scaling analyses, populations clustered into southern and northern groups, which did not correspond to current seed transfer zones. Our discovery of a clinal geographic pattern of genetic variation in adaptive traits of P. strobiformis seedlings will be useful in developing strategies to maintain the species during ongoing climate change and in the face of an invasive pathogen. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Postdischarge growth and development in a predominantly Hispanic, very low birth weight population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, George C; Ramamurthy, Rajam; Schoolfield, John; Matula, Kathleen

    2008-12-01

    The goals were to assess postdischarge growth and developmental progress of very low birth weight (birth weight: population and to identify predictors for neurodevelopmental impairment at 3 years of age. A cohort of 135 very low birth weight infants (gestational age: 23 to 35 weeks) were monitored to 3 years of age. Maternal and neonatal characteristics, anthropometric z scores, and developmental performance (using corrected age until 24 months) were analyzed collectively and according to gestational age groups. Specific criteria for failure to thrive and microcephaly were used. A characteristic pattern of poor weight gain in the first 12 months was followed by accelerated weight gain starting at 18 months, whereas head growth decreased at 18 months, with recovery beginning at 30 months of age. Infants born at gestational age of growth-impaired at 3 years of age, whereas infants born at gestational age of >or=27 weeks achieved catch-up growth by 30 months of age. Mean developmental scores also decreased in infancy, with improvements in motor development emerging at 18 months and cognitive skills at 30 months. Growth z scores, particularly for head growth, correlated with developmental scores. Infants born at gestational age of growth patterns that coincided with developmental progress in the first 3 years of life. Birth at gestational age of

  14. Are whooping cranes destined for extinction? Climate change imperils recruitment and population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Matthew J; Metzger, Kristine L; Harris, Grant M

    2017-04-01

    Identifying climatic drivers of an animal population's vital rates and locating where they operate steers conservation efforts to optimize species recovery. The population growth of endangered whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) hinges on juvenile recruitment. Therefore, we identify climatic drivers (solar activity [sunspots] and weather) of whooping crane recruitment throughout the species' life cycle (breeding, migration, wintering). Our method uses a repeated cross-validated absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach to identify drivers of recruitment. We model effects of climate change on those drivers to predict whooping crane population growth given alternative scenarios of climate change and solar activity. Years with fewer sunspots indicated greater recruitment. Increased precipitation during autumn migration signified less recruitment. On the breeding grounds, fewer days below freezing during winter and more precipitation during breeding suggested less recruitment. We predicted whooping crane recruitment and population growth may fall below long-term averages during all solar cycles when atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases, as expected, to 500 ppm by 2050. Species recovery during a typical solar cycle with 500 ppm may require eight times longer than conditions without climate change and the chance of population decline increases to 31%. Although this whooping crane population is growing and may appear secure, long-term threats imposed by climate change and increased solar activity may jeopardize its persistence. Weather on the breeding grounds likely affects recruitment through hydrological processes and predation risk, whereas precipitation during autumn migration may influence juvenile mortality. Mitigating threats or abating climate change should occur within ≈30 years or this wild population of whooping cranes may begin declining.

  15. Impact of Population Growth and Climate Change on the Freshwater Resources of Lamu Island, Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornelius Okello

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Demand for freshwater is rising with factors, such as population growth, land use change and climate variations, rendering water availability in the future uncertain. Groundwater resources are being increasingly exploited to meet this growing demand. The aim of this study is to identify the influence of population growth induced by land use change and climate change on the future state of freshwater resources of Lamu Island in Kenya where a major port facility is under construction. The results of this study show that the “no industrial development” population scenario (assuming the port was not constructed would be expected to reach ~50,000 people by 2050, while the projected population upon completion is expected to reach 1.25 million in the same year when the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor Program (LAPSSET port reaches its full cargo-handling capacity. The groundwater abstraction in 2009 was 0.06 m3 daily per capita, while the demand is expected to raise to 0.1 m3 by 2050 according to the “LAPSSET development” projection. The modelling results show that the Shela aquifer in Lamu, which is the main source of water on the island, will not experience stress by 2065 for the “no industrial development” population scenario, whereas for the “LAPSSET development projection” population scenario, it will occur sooner (between 2020 and 2028. The modelling results show that the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP climate change scenarios will have a smaller impact on the effective water volume reserves than Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES for the “no industrial development”, while the impact is expected to be similar for the “LAPSSET development”, suggesting that population growth exacerbated by land use change will be a more significant driving force than climate change in affecting freshwater availability.

  16. Fifty years of population growth and absorption of labor in Brazil: from 1950 to 2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, P D

    1997-01-01

    For a long time, the Brazilian population has grown at a relatively high rate, and only recently has the process of demographic transition intensified in the country. While the associated decline in fertility could result in a future decline in the size of the working-age population, it could also lead to an increase in female participation in the labor market. Brazil's economy is performing well, with gross domestic product (GDP) growing at an average annual rate of 7.1% during 1947-80. Marked growth in industrial employment opportunities has accompanied this growth in GDP. The size of the informal sector, however, has not decreased in similar proportion, while the 1981-83 economic crisis caused urban employment levels to drop, especially in industry and construction. Moreover, the level of rural-urban migration has increased and the agricultural employment index has fallen. The author evaluates past growth trends of the Economically Active Population (EAP) and of employment in Brazil, and assesses the potential growth of the labor force until the year 2000.

  17. Population structure, growth and production of a recent brachiopod from the Chilean fjord region

    KAUST Repository

    Baumgarten, Sebastian

    2013-12-04

    Magellania venosa, the largest recent brachiopod, occurs in clusters and banks in population densities of up to 416 ind m-2 in Comau Fjord, Northern Chilean fjord region. Below 15 m, it co-occurs with the mytilid Aulacomya atra and it dominates the benthic community below 20 m. To determine the question of why M. venosa is a successful competitor, the in situ growth rate of the brachiopod was studied and its overall growth performance compared with that of other brachiopods and mussels. The growth in length was measured between February 2011 and March 2012 after mechanical tagging and calcein staining. Settlement and juvenile growth were determined from recruitment tiles installed in 2009 and from subsequent photocensus. Growth of M. venosa is best described by the general von Bertalanffy growth function, with a maximum shell length (L∞) of 71.53 mm and a Brody growth constant (K) of 0.336 year-1. The overall growth performance (OGP index = 5.1) is the highest recorded for a rynchonelliform brachiopod and in the range of that for Mytilus chilensis (4.8-5.27), but lower than that of A. atra (5.74). The maximal individual production (PInd) is 0.29 g AFDM ind-1 year-1 at 42 mm shell length and annual production ranges from 1.28 to 89.25 g AFDM year-1 m-2 (1-57% of that of A. atra in the respective fjords). The high shell growth rate of M. venosa, together with its high overall growth performance may explain the locally high population density of this brachiopod in Comau Fjord. However, the production per biomass of the population (P/B--ratio) is low (0.535) and M. venosa may play only a minor role in the food chain. Settling dynamics indicates that M. venosa is a pioneer species with low juvenile mortality. The coexistence of the brachiopod and bivalve suggests that brachiopod survival is affected by neither the presence of potential brachiopod predators nor that of space competitors (i.e. mytilids).

  18. Population genomics reveal recent speciation and rapid evolutionary adaptation in polar bears.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shiping; Lorenzen, Eline D; Fumagalli, Matteo; Li, Bo; Harris, Kelley; Xiong, Zijun; Zhou, Long; Korneliussen, Thorfinn Sand; Somel, Mehmet; Babbitt, Courtney; Wray, Greg; Li, Jianwen; He, Weiming; Wang, Zhuo; Fu, Wenjing; Xiang, Xueyan; Morgan, Claire C; Doherty, Aoife; O'Connell, Mary J; McInerney, James O; Born, Erik W; Dalén, Love; Dietz, Rune; Orlando, Ludovic; Sonne, Christian; Zhang, Guojie; Nielsen, Rasmus; Willerslev, Eske; Wang, Jun

    2014-05-08

    Polar bears are uniquely adapted to life in the High Arctic and have undergone drastic physiological changes in response to Arctic climates and a hyper-lipid diet of primarily marine mammal prey. We analyzed 89 complete genomes of polar bear and brown bear using population genomic modeling and show that the species diverged only 479-343 thousand years BP. We find that genes on the polar bear lineage have been under stronger positive selection than in brown bears; nine of the top 16 genes under strong positive selection are associated with cardiomyopathy and vascular disease, implying important reorganization of the cardiovascular system. One of the genes showing the strongest evidence of selection, APOB, encodes the primary lipoprotein component of low-density lipoprotein (LDL); functional mutations in APOB may explain how polar bears are able to cope with life-long elevated LDL levels that are associated with high risk of heart disease in humans. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Development and population growth of Hydra viridissima Pallas, 1766 (Cnidaria, Hydrozoa in the laboratory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FC. Massaro

    Full Text Available Hydras, the most representative freshwater Cnidaria, are of common occurrence in bodies of water in every continent except Antarctica. This study was planned with the aim of maintaining a population of Hydra viridissima in laboratory culture to enable the determination of the individual and population growth-rates of this species, as well as its population doubling time and generation time, with a view to employing these common animals as test-organisms in ecotoxicological assays. The organisms were maintained in reconstituted water at 20 ± 2 °C, illuminated at 800 lux with a photoperiod of 12 hours light: 12 hours dark, and were fed on neonates of the cladoceran Ceriodaphnia silvestrii (3 or 4 neonates per hydra, 3 times a week. The individual growth-rate (k of the species was 0.43, the maximum length of the column 2.53 mm and the generation time 6.6 ± 1.5 days on average. The hydra population showed an intrinsic growth-rate (r of 0.0468, according to the fitted curve, and a doubling time of 14.8 ± 2.63 days. Hydra viridissima is easy to grow in the laboratory and performs well in the conditions used in this study. It is thus a promising candidate test-organism for ecotoxicological studies.

  20. Living bacteria rheology: Population growth, aggregation patterns, and collective behavior under different shear flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrício, P.; Almeida, P. L.; Portela, R.; Sobral, R. G.; Grilo, I. R.; Cidade, T.; Leal, C. R.

    2014-08-01

    The activity of growing living bacteria was investigated using real-time and in situ rheology—in stationary and oscillatory shear. Two different strains of the human pathogen Staphylococcus aureus—strain COL and its isogenic cell wall autolysis mutant, RUSAL9—were considered in this work. For low bacteria density, strain COL forms small clusters, while the mutant, presenting deficient cell separation, forms irregular larger aggregates. In the early stages of growth, when subjected to a stationary shear, the viscosity of the cultures of both strains increases with the population of cells. As the bacteria reach the exponential phase of growth, the viscosity of the cultures of the two strains follows different and rich behaviors, with no counterpart in the optical density or in the population's colony-forming units measurements. While the viscosity of strain COL culture keeps increasing during the exponential phase and returns close to its initial value for the late phase of growth, where the population stabilizes, the viscosity of the mutant strain culture decreases steeply, still in the exponential phase, remains constant for some time, and increases again, reaching a constant plateau at a maximum value for the late phase of growth. These complex viscoelastic behaviors, which were observed to be shear-stress-dependent, are a consequence of two coupled effects: the cell density continuous increase and its changing interacting properties. The viscous and elastic moduli of strain COL culture, obtained with oscillatory shear, exhibit power-law behaviors whose exponents are dependent on the bacteria growth stage. The viscous and elastic moduli of the mutant culture have complex behaviors, emerging from the different relaxation times that are associated with the large molecules of the medium and the self-organized structures of bacteria. Nevertheless, these behaviors reflect the bacteria growth stage.

  1. Rapid monitoring of glycerol in fermentation growth media: Facilitating crude glycerol bioprocess development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abad, Sergi; Pérez, Xavier; Planas, Antoni; Turon, Xavier

    2014-04-01

    Recently, the need for crude glycerol valorisation from the biodiesel industry has generated many studies for practical and economic applications. Amongst them, fermentations based on glycerol media for the production of high value metabolites are prominent applications. This has generated a need to develop analytical techniques which allow fast and simple glycerol monitoring during fermentation. The methodology should be fast and inexpensive to be adopted in research, as well as in industrial applications. In this study three different methods were analysed and compared: two common methodologies based on liquid chromatography and enzymatic kits, and the new method based on a DotBlot assay coupled with image analysis. The new methodology is faster and cheaper than the other conventional methods, with comparable performance. Good linearity, precision and accuracy were achieved in the lower range (10 or 15 g/L to depletion), the most common range of glycerol concentrations to monitor fermentations in terms of growth kinetics. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Trends in the growth of population and labour force in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashmi, S S

    1990-01-01

    Trends in the growth of the population and labor force in Pakistan are examined and future prospects for growth of population and labor, particularly agriculture, are estimated. The definition of labor force as employed or seeking work after a short period of employment has led to a great disparity in results for women in the labor force. Past trends in population growth reflected a growth rate of 1.6% for the 1950's, and 2.4% in 1960. The population rose to 84.3 million in 1981 from 42.6 million in 1961, which intercensally was an increase of 3.6% per annum for 1961-72 and 3.1% per annum for 1972-81. The estimated rate for 1981-86 was 2.9%/year. The rural population doubled and the urban tripled. There was a net migration of 2.123 million to urban areas reported in the 1981 census. There is also evidence of a high sex ratio. Balochistan (7.1%) and Sindh (3.6%) provinces have the highest growth rates. Although the largest population is in the Punjab, the growth is the lowest at 2.7%. The population is primarily young -- 44.5% 15 years in 1981, which is the highest in the world. Under high, medium, and low levels of fertility, prospective trends are estimated for 2006 and 2031, and by sex every 5 years from 1981. Population under high fertility is expected to reach 270 million by 2031, which is 3.39 persons/hectare. The population/hectare of land under cultivation was 4.25 in 1981 and is expected to rise to 13.49 persons/hectare in 2031. 11 million acres could be brought under cultivation to reduce the ratio. However, there are ecological considerations as well as an employment problem. The dependency ratio under the high variant will decline from 76.8 persons 0-14 and 65 years/100 persons 15-64 years in 1986 to 70.3 in 2006 which is still considerably higher than other developing countries. It is suggested that replacement level fertility be attained as soon as possible. Under low fertility, replacement level can be reached by 2011 with strong political commitment

  3. The Contribution of Population Health and Demographic Change to Economic Growth in China and India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloom, David E.; Canning, David; Hu, Linlin; Liu, Yuanli; Mahal, Ajay; Yip, Winnie

    2010-01-01

    We find that a cross-country model of economic growth successfully tracks the growth takeoffs in China and India. The major drivers of the predicted takeoffs are improved health, increased openness to trade, and a rising labor force-to-population ratio due to fertility decline. We also explore the effect of the reallocation of labor from low-productivity agriculture to the higher-productivity industry and service sectors. Including the money value of longevity improvements in a measure of full income reduces the gap between the magnitude of China's takeoff relative to India's due to the relative stagnation in life expectancy in China since 1980. PMID:20419074

  4. Population growth and the environment: Can we eat the cake and have it?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shmuel Amir

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Continuous population growth and the concomitant maintenance of a growth sustaining environment are not in conflict only if the rates of both economic and biological processes are slowed down steadily. For this to happen, individual and social impatience-lowering adaptations should be adopted, and the capital of the system, both economic and natural, has to be redistributed among the system interacting components to result in an ever more complex organizational web. In addition, these factors have to corroborate with a third element, the incorporation of an arsenal of varied technological innovations that improves the use of existing stocks.

  5. Periodic matrix population models: growth rate, basic reproduction number, and entropy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacaër, Nicolas

    2009-10-01

    This article considers three different aspects of periodic matrix population models. First, a formula for the sensitivity analysis of the growth rate lambda is obtained that is simpler than the one obtained by Caswell and Trevisan. Secondly, the formula for the basic reproduction number R0 in a constant environment is generalized to the case of a periodic environment. Some inequalities between lambda and R0 proved by Cushing and Zhou are also generalized to the periodic case. Finally, we add some remarks on Demetrius' notion of evolutionary entropy H and its relationship to the growth rate lambda in the periodic case.

  6. Incorporating an extended dendritic growth model into the CAFE model for rapidly solidified non-dilute alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, Jie; Wang, Bo; Zhao, Shunli; Wu, Guangxin; Zhang, Jieyu; Yang, Zhiliang

    2016-01-01

    We have extended the dendritic growth model first proposed by Boettinger, Coriell and Trivedi (here termed EBCT) for microstructure simulations of rapidly solidified non-dilute alloys. The temperature-dependent distribution coefficient, obtained from calculations of phase equilibria, and the continuous growth model (CGM) were adopted in the present EBCT model to describe the solute trapping behaviors. The temperature dependence of the physical properties, which were not used in previous dendritic growth models, were also considered in the present EBCT model. These extensions allow the present EBCT model to be used for microstructure simulations of non-dilute alloys. The comparison of the present EBCT model with the BCT model proves that the considerations of the distribution coefficient and physical properties are necessary for microstructure simulations, especially for small particles with high undercoolings. Finally, the EBCT model was incorporated into the cellular automaton-finite element (CAFE) model to simulate microstructures of gas-atomized ASP30 high speed steel particles that were then compared with experimental results. Both the simulated and experimental results reveal that a columnar dendritic microstructure preferentially forms in small particles and an equiaxed microstructure forms otherwise. The applications of the present EBCT model provide a convenient way to predict the microstructure of non-dilute alloys. - Highlights: • A dendritic growth model was developed considering non-equilibrium distribution coefficient. • The physical properties with temperature dependence were considered in the extended model. • The extended model can be used to non-dilute alloys and the extensions are necessary in small particles. • Microstructure of ASP30 steel was investigated using the present model and verified by experiment.

  7. Incorporating an extended dendritic growth model into the CAFE model for rapidly solidified non-dilute alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Jie; Wang, Bo [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China); Zhao, Shunli [Research Institute, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd, Shanghai 201900 (China); Wu, Guangxin [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China); Zhang, Jieyu, E-mail: zjy6162@staff.shu.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China); Yang, Zhiliang [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China)

    2016-05-25

    We have extended the dendritic growth model first proposed by Boettinger, Coriell and Trivedi (here termed EBCT) for microstructure simulations of rapidly solidified non-dilute alloys. The temperature-dependent distribution coefficient, obtained from calculations of phase equilibria, and the continuous growth model (CGM) were adopted in the present EBCT model to describe the solute trapping behaviors. The temperature dependence of the physical properties, which were not used in previous dendritic growth models, were also considered in the present EBCT model. These extensions allow the present EBCT model to be used for microstructure simulations of non-dilute alloys. The comparison of the present EBCT model with the BCT model proves that the considerations of the distribution coefficient and physical properties are necessary for microstructure simulations, especially for small particles with high undercoolings. Finally, the EBCT model was incorporated into the cellular automaton-finite element (CAFE) model to simulate microstructures of gas-atomized ASP30 high speed steel particles that were then compared with experimental results. Both the simulated and experimental results reveal that a columnar dendritic microstructure preferentially forms in small particles and an equiaxed microstructure forms otherwise. The applications of the present EBCT model provide a convenient way to predict the microstructure of non-dilute alloys. - Highlights: • A dendritic growth model was developed considering non-equilibrium distribution coefficient. • The physical properties with temperature dependence were considered in the extended model. • The extended model can be used to non-dilute alloys and the extensions are necessary in small particles. • Microstructure of ASP30 steel was investigated using the present model and verified by experiment.

  8. Incidence and related factors of traffic accidents among the older population in a rapidly aging society.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Kimyong; Lee, Kyoung-Mu; Jang, Soong-nang

    2015-01-01

    To estimate the incidence of traffic accidents and find related factors among the older population. We used the cross-sectional data from the Korean Community Health Survey (KCHS), which was conducted between 2008 and 2010 and completed by 680,202 adults aged 19 years or more. And we used individuals aged 60 years or above (n=210,914). The incidence of traffic accidents was estimated as number of traffic accidents experienced per thousand per year by a number of factors including age, sex, residential area, education, employment status, and diagnosis with chronic diseases. Multiple logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each potential risk factor adjusted for the others. Incidence of traffic accidents was estimated as 11.74/1,000 per year for men, and 7.65/1,000 per year for women. It tended to decline as age increased among women; compared to the youngest old age group (60-64), the older old groups (70-74 and 80+) were at lower risk for traffic accidents. Depressive symptom was the strongest predictor for both men (OR=1.83, 95% CI=1.28-2.61) and women (1.70, 1.23-2.35). Risk of traffic accident was greater in employed men (1.76, 1.40-2.22) and women diagnosis with arthritis (1.36, 1.06-1.75). Given that the incidence of and factors associated with traffic accidents differ between men and women, preventive strategies, such as driver education and traffic safety counseling for older adults, should be modified in accordance with these differences. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Beaver-mediated methane emission: The effects of population growth in Eurasia and the Americas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitfield, Colin J; Baulch, Helen M; Chun, Kwok P; Westbrook, Cherie J

    2015-02-01

    Globally, greenhouse gas budgets are dominated by natural sources, and aquatic ecosystems are a prominent source of methane (CH(4)) to the atmosphere. Beaver (Castor canadensis and Castor fiber) populations have experienced human-driven change, and CH(4) emissions associated with their habitat remain uncertain. This study reports the effect of near extinction and recovery of beavers globally on aquatic CH4 emissions and habitat. Resurgence of native beaver populations and their introduction in other regions accounts for emission of 0.18-0.80 Tg CH(4) year(-1) (year 2000). This flux is approximately 200 times larger than emissions from the same systems (ponds and flowing waters that became ponds) circa 1900. Beaver population recovery was estimated to have led to the creation of 9500-42 000 km(2) of ponded water, and increased riparian interface length of >200 000 km. Continued range expansion and population growth in South America and Europe could further increase CH(4) emissions.

  10. Population, education and sustainable development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, T

    1992-12-01

    The author examines the interrelationships between population growth and education, with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa. "The gross body of evidence suggests that for all developing regions (and for sub-saharan Africa specifically) rapid population growth deleteriously impacts upon the quantity and quality of schooling. In a reciprocal fashion, the variables which underpin rapid and differential growth (fertility, mortality and migration) are themselves influenced by quantum of formal schooling and by other educational processes." excerpt

  11. Mutually catalyzed birth of population and assets in exchange-driven growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Zhenquan; Ke, Jianhong; Ye, Gaoxiang

    2006-10-01

    We propose an exchange-driven aggregation growth model of population and assets with mutually catalyzed birth to study the interaction between the population and assets in their exchange-driven processes. In this model, monomer (or equivalently, individual) exchange occurs between any pair of aggregates of the same species (population or assets). The rate kernels of the exchanges of population and assets are K(k,l)=Kkl and L(k,l)=Lkl , respectively, at which one monomer migrates from an aggregate of size k to another of size l . Meanwhile, an aggregate of one species can yield a new monomer by the catalysis of an arbitrary aggregate of the other species. The rate kernel of asset-catalyzed population birth is I(k,l)=Iklμ [and that of population-catalyzed asset birth is J(k,l)=Jklν ], at which an aggregate of size k gains a monomer birth when it meets a catalyst aggregate of size l . The kinetic behaviors of the population and asset aggregates are solved based on the rate equations. The evolution of the aggregate size distributions of population and assets is found to fall into one of three categories for different parameters μ and ν : (i) population (asset) aggregates evolve according to the conventional scaling form in the case of μ⩽0 (ν⩽0) , (ii) population (asset) aggregates evolve according to a modified scaling form in the case of ν=0 and μ>0 ( μ=0 and ν>0 ), and (iii) both population and asset aggregates undergo gelation transitions at a finite time in the case of μ=ν>0 .

  12. Genetic analysis of morphological traits in a new, versatile, rapid-cycling Brassica rapa recombinant inbred line population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hedayat eBagheri

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available A recombinant inbred line (RIL population was produced based on a wide cross between the rapid-cycling and self-compatible genotypes L58, a Caixin vegetable type, and R-o-18, a yellow sarson oil type. A linkage map based on 160 F7 lines was constructed using 100 SNP, 130 AFLP®, 27 InDel and 13 publicly available SSR markers. The map covers a total length of 1150 cM with an average resolution of 4.3 cM/marker. To demonstrate the versatility of this new population, 17 traits, related to plant architecture and seed characteristics, were subjected to QTL analysis. A total of 47 QTLs were detected, each explaining between 6 to 54% of the total phenotypic variance for the concerned trait. The genetic analysis shows that this population is a useful new tool for analyzing genetic variation for interesting traits in B. rapa, and for further exploitation of the recent availability of the B. rapa whole genome sequence for gene cloning and gene function analysis.

  13. Rapid Start-up and Loading of an Attached Growth, Simultaneous Nitrification/Denitrification Membrane Aerated Bioreactor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Caitlin E.; Pensinger, Stuart; Pickering, Karen D.; Barta, Daniel; Shull, Sarah A.; Vega, Letticia M.; Christenson, Dylan; Jackson, W. Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Membrane aerated bioreactors (MABR) are attached-growth biological systems used for simultaneous nitrification and denitrification to reclaim water from waste. This design is an innovative approach to common terrestrial wastewater treatments for nitrogen and carbon removal and implementing a biologically-based water treatment system for long-duration human exploration is an attractive, low energy alternative to physiochemical processes. Two obstacles to implementing such a system are (1) the "start-up" duration from inoculation to steady-state operations and (2) the amount of surface area needed for the biological activity to occur. The Advanced Water Recovery Systems (AWRS) team at JSC explored these two issues through two tests; a rapid inoculation study and a wastewater loading study. Results from these tests demonstrate that the duration from inoculation to steady state can be reduced to under two weeks, and that despite low ammonium removal rates, the MABRs are oversized.

  14. A rapid, reliable method of evaluating growth and viability of intraerythrocytic protozoan hemoparasites using fluorescence flow cytometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, W C; Wyatt, C R; Hamilton, M J; Goff, W L

    1992-01-01

    Fluorescence flow cytometry was employed to assess the potential of a vital dye, hydroethidine, for use in the detection and monitoring of the viability of hemoparasites in infected erythrocytes, using Babesia bovis as a model parasite. The studies demonstrated that hydroethidine is taken up by B. bovis and metabolically converted to the DNA binding fluorochrome, ethidium. Following uptake of the dye, erythrocytes containing viable parasites were readily distinguished and quantitated. Timed studies with the parasiticidal drug, Ganaseg, showed that it is possible to use the fluorochrome assay to monitor the effects of the drug on the rate of replication and viability of B. bovis in culture. The assay provides a rapid method for evaluation of the in vitro effect of drugs on hemoparasites and for analysis of the effect of various components of the immune response, such as lymphokines, monocyte products, antibodies, and effector cells (T, NK, LAK, ADCC) on the growth and viability of intraerythrocytic parasites.

  15. A rapid, reliable method of evaluating growth and viability of intraerythrocytic protozoan hemoparasites using fluorescence flow cytometry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. C. Davis

    1992-01-01

    Full Text Available Fluorescence flow cytometry was employed to assess the potential of a vital dye, hydroethiedine, for use in the detection and monitoring of the viability of hemoparasites in infected erythrocytes, using Babesia bovis as a model parasite. The studies demonstrated that hydroethidine is taken up by B. bovis and metabolically converted to the DNA binding fluorochrone, ethidium. Following uptake of the dye, erythrocytes contamine viable parasites were readily distinguished and quantitated. Timed studies with the parasiticidal drug, Ganaseg, showed that it is possible to use the fluorochrome assay to monitor the effects of the drug on the rate of replication and viability of B. bovis in culture. The assay provides a rapid method for evaluation of the in vitro effect of drugs on hemoparasites and for analysis of the effect of various components of the immune response, such as lymphokines, monocyte products, antibodies, and effector cells (T, NK, LAK, ADCC on the growth and viability of intraerythrocytic parasites.

  16. Urban Health and Welfare in Sub-Saharan Africa: Population Growth, Urbanisation, Water/Sanitation Services, Slumisation and Poverty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RICHARD INGWE

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Spatio-temporal analysis was applied on data representing urbanisation, slumisation, poverty, safe water/ sanitation in urban sub-Saharan Africa (SSA. The findings include: rapid rates of national population growth and urbanisation throughout SSA from 1980 to 2005, averaging 93.8% (range: 90.5% points, lowest and highest rates being 40% (Lesotho and 130.5% (Niger, respectively; high national poverty rates, widespread in SSA: (>50% in about seven countries; it might have been similar in more countries if a large number of SSA countries had reported their 1993 poverty rates; high urban/rural poverty ratios (1.05-1.79 points range between Nigeria and Benin Republics. High average rate (73% of slumisation in SSA in 2001 (range: 96%, lowest and highest rates being in Zimbabwe (3% and Chad/Ethiopia (99%, respectively. SSA’s 2000 health adjusted life expectancy was generally low: 38.8 years (<40 years in 24 countries. Use of safe/improved water/sanitation services were poor almost throughout SSA: declined rapidly and ubiquitously from 72% (2000 to 55% (2002, minus 17% points decrease in three years within individual countries with alarming declines up to minus 69% points in Guinea. The policy implications of the findings include the urgent and imperative need to massively implement urban improvement programmes designed to provide health-inducing services/facilities across SSA.

  17. Rapid growth of amorphous carbon films on the inner surface of micron-thick and hollow-core fibers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ji, Longfei [Fujian Key Laboratory for Plasma and Magnetic Resonance, Department of Electric Science, School of Physics and Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005 (China); School of Physics and Materials Engineering, Dalian Nationalities University, Dalian 116600 (China); School of Science, Changchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun, Jilin 130022 (China); Liu, Dongping, E-mail: Dongping.liu@dlnu.edu.cn [Fujian Key Laboratory for Plasma and Magnetic Resonance, Department of Electric Science, School of Physics and Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005 (China); School of Physics and Materials Engineering, Dalian Nationalities University, Dalian 116600 (China); School of Science, Changchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun, Jilin 130022 (China); Zhou, Xinwei [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Zhejiang 310007 (China); Song, Ying [School of Physics and Materials Engineering, Dalian Nationalities University, Dalian 116600 (China); School of Physics and Optoelectronic Technology, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116023 (China); Ni, Weiyuan [School of Physics and Materials Engineering, Dalian Nationalities University, Dalian 116600 (China); School of Science, Changchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun, Jilin 130022 (China); Niu, Jinhai; Fan, Hongyu [School of Physics and Materials Engineering, Dalian Nationalities University, Dalian 116600 (China)

    2013-10-01

    Ultrathick (> 25 μm) carbon films were obtained on the inner surface of hollow and micron-thick quartz fibers by confining CH{sub 4}/He or C{sub 2}H{sub 2}/He microplasmas in their hollow cores. The resulting carbon films were studied by using scanning electron microscopy and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. The microplasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (CVD) technique resulted in the uniform growth of amorphous carbon films on the inner surface of very long (> 1 m) hollow-core fibers. Film deposition is performed by using microplasmas at atmospheric pressure and at 50 Pa. The carbon films obtained with the latter show the smooth inner surfaces and the well continuity across the film/optical fiber. Low-pressure CH{sub 4}/He and C{sub 2}H{sub 2}/He microplasmas can lead to a rapid growth (∼ 2.00 μm/min) of carbon films with their thickness of > 25 μm. The optical emission measurements show that various hydrocarbon species were formed in these depositing microplasmas due to the collisions between CH{sub 4}/C{sub 2}H{sub 2} molecules and energetic species. The microplasma-enhanced CVD technique running without the complicated fabrication processes shows its potentials for rapidly depositing the overlong carbon tubes with their inner diameters of tens of microns. - Highlights: • The microplasma device is applied for coating deposition inside hollow-core fibers. • The microplasma device results in > 25 μm-thick carbon films. • The microplasma device is simple for deposition of ultralong carbon tubes.

  18. The Association between Natural Amenities, Rural Population Growth, and Long-Term Residents' Economic Well-Being

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Lori M; Boardman, Jason D.; Saint Onge, Jarron M.

    2005-01-01

    Population growth in rural areas characterized by high levels of natural amenities has recently received substantial research attention. A noted concern with amenity-driven rural population growth is its potential to raise local costs-of-living while yielding only low-wage service sector employment for long-term residents. The work presented here…

  19. Effects of Population Growth and Climate Variability on Sustainable Groundwater in Mali, West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Lutz

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater is increasingly relied on as a source of potable water in developing countries, but factors such as population growth, development, and climate variability, pose potential challenges for ongoing sustainable supply. The effect of these factors on the groundwater system was considered in four scenarios using a numerical model to represent the Bani area of Mali, West Africa. By 2040, population growth, climate variability, and development as urbanization, agriculture, and industry creates scenarios in which groundwater extraction is an increasingly larger percentage of the groundwater system. Consumption from agriculture and industry increases extraction rates from less than 1 to 3.8% of mean annual precipitation, which will likely affect the groundwater system. For instance, concentrated pumping in local areas may result in water level declines. The results of this study contribute to an ongoing evaluation of sustainable groundwater resources in West Africa.

  20. Fetal growth and risk of stillbirth: a population-based case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bukowski, Radek; Hansen, Nellie I; Willinger, Marian; Reddy, Uma M; Parker, Corette B; Pinar, Halit; Silver, Robert M; Dudley, Donald J; Stoll, Barbara J; Saade, George R; Koch, Matthew A; Rowland Hogue, Carol J; Varner, Michael W; Conway, Deborah L; Coustan, Donald; Goldenberg, Robert L

    2014-04-01

    Stillbirth is strongly related to impaired fetal growth. However, the relationship between fetal growth and stillbirth is difficult to determine because of uncertainty in the timing of death and confounding characteristics affecting normal fetal growth. We conducted a population-based case-control study of all stillbirths and a representative sample of live births in 59 hospitals in five geographic areas in the US. Fetal growth abnormalities were categorized as small for gestational age (SGA) (90th percentile) at death (stillbirth) or delivery (live birth) using population, ultrasound, and individualized norms. Gestational age at death was determined using an algorithm that considered the time-of-death interval, postmortem examination, and reliability of the gestational age estimate. Data were weighted to account for the sampling design and differential participation rates in various subgroups. Among 527 singleton stillbirths and 1,821 singleton live births studied, stillbirth was associated with SGA based on population, ultrasound, and individualized norms (odds ratio [OR] [95% CI]: 3.0 [2.2 to 4.0]; 4.7 [3.7 to 5.9]; 4.6 [3.6 to 5.9], respectively). LGA was also associated with increased risk of stillbirth using ultrasound and individualized norms (OR [95% CI]: 3.5 [2.4 to 5.0]; 2.3 [1.7 to 3.1], respectively), but not population norms (OR [95% CI]: 0.6 [0.4 to 1.0]). The associations were stronger with more severe SGA and LGA (95th percentile). Analyses adjusted for stillbirth risk factors, subset analyses excluding potential confounders, and analyses in preterm and term pregnancies showed similar patterns of association. In this study 70% of cases and 63% of controls agreed to participate. Analysis weights accounted for differences between consenting and non-consenting women. Some of the characteristics used for individualized fetal growth estimates were missing and were replaced with reference values. However, a sensitivity analysis using individualized norms

  1. Glacier Instability, Rapid Glacier Lake Growth and Related Hazards at Belvedere Glacier, Macugnaga, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, C.; Kaeaeb, A.; Haeberli, W.; Mortara, G.; Chiarle, M.; Epifani, F.

    2002-12-01

    Starting in summer 2000, Belvedere Glacier, near Macugnaga, Italian Alps, developed an extraordinary change in flow, geometry and surface appearance. A surge-type flow acceleration started in the lower parts of the Monte-Rosa east face, leading to strong crevassing and deformation of Belvedere Glacier, accompanied by bulging of its orographic right margin. In September 2001, a small supraglacial lake developed on the glacier. High water pressure and accelerated movement lasted into winter 2001/2002. The ice, in places, started to override moraines from the Little Ice Age. In late spring and early summer 2002, the supraglacial lake grew at extraordinary rates reaching a maximum area of more than 150'000 m2 by end of June. The evolution of such a large supraglacial lake, a rather unique feature in the Alps, was probably enabled by changes in the subglacial drainage system in the course of the surge-like developments with high water pressure in the glacier. At the end of June, an enhanced growth of the lake level with a rise of about 1 m per day was observed such that the supraglacial lake became a urgent hazard problem for the community of Macugnaga. Emergency measures had to be taken by the Italian Civil Protection. The authors thereby acted as the official expert advisers. Temporal evacuations were ordered and a permanent monitoring and alarm system was installed. Pumps with a maximum output of 1 m3/s were brought to the lake. Bathymetric studies yielded a maximum lake depth of 55 m and a volume of 3.3 millions of cubic meters of water. Aerial photography of 1995, 1999, September 2001 and October 2001 was used to calculate ice flow velocities and changes in surface altitude. Compared to the period of 1995 to 1999, the flow accelerated by about five times in 2001 (max. speeds up to 200 m/yr). Surface uplift measured was about 10-15 m/yr. The results of the photogrammetric studies were used to evaluate different possible lake-outburst scenarios, in particular

  2. Population Growth Rate, Life Expectancy and Pension Program Improvement in China

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Zaigui

    2008-01-01

    Applying an overlapping-generations model with lifetime uncertainty, we examine in this paper China’s partially funded public pension system. The findings show that the individual contribution rate does not affect the capital-labor ratio but the firm contribution rate does. The optimal firm contribution rate depends on the capital share of income, social discount factor, survival probability, and population growth rate. The simulation results indicate that the optimal firm contribution rate r...

  3. Growth Performance Of Mono-Sex And Mixed Sex Population Of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The growth performance of all-male, all-female and mixed sex population of Oreochromis niloticus fed similar diet was carried out. The fingerlings used in the study were of relatively similar weight ranges (24.8 g – 26.6 g) with initial mean weight of 25.7±1.3 g and initial mean total length of 3.8 ± 1.5 cm. The mean increase ...

  4. Bot fly parasitism of the red-backed vole: host survival, infection risk, and population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemaître, Jérôme; Fortin, Daniel; Montiglio, Pierre-Olivier; Darveau, Marcel

    2009-03-01

    Parasites can play an important role in the dynamics of host populations, but empirical evidence remains sparse. We investigated the role of bot fly (Cuterebra spp.) parasitism in red-backed voles (Myodes gapperi) by first assessing the impacts of the parasite on the probability of vole survival under stressful conditions as well as on the reproductive activity of females. We then identified the main factors driving both the individual risk of infection and the abundance of bot flies inside red-backed voles. Finally, we evaluated the impacts of bot fly prevalence on the growth rate of vole populations between mid-July and mid-August. Thirty-six populations of red-backed voles were sampled in the boreal forest of Québec, Canada. The presence and the abundance of parasites in voles, two host life history traits (sex and body condition), three indices of habitat complexity (tree basal area, sapling basal area, coarse woody debris volume), and vole abundance were considered in models evaluating the effects of bot flies on host populations. We found that the probability of survival of red-backed voles in live traps decreased with bot fly infection. Both the individual risk of infection and the abundance of bot flies in red-backed voles were driven mainly by vole abundance rather than by the two host life history traits or the three variables of habitat complexity. Parasitism had population consequences: bot fly prevalence was linked to a decrease in short-term growth rate of vole populations over the summer. We found that bot flies have the potential to reduce survival of red-backed voles, an effect that may apply to large portions of populations.

  5. Population growth, interest rate, and housing tax in the transitional China

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

    2017-03-01

    This paper combines and develops the models in Lastrapes (2002) and Mankiw and Weil (1989), which enables us to analyze the effects of interest rate and population growth shocks on housing price in one integrated framework. Based on this model, we carry out policy simulations to examine whether the housing (stock or flow) tax reduces the housing price fluctuations caused by interest rate or population growth shocks. Simulation results imply that the choice of housing tax tools depends on the kind of shock that housing market faces. In the situation where the housing price volatility is caused by the population growth shock, the flow tax can reduce the volatility of housing price while the stock tax makes no difference to it. If the shock is resulting from the interest rate, the policy maker should not impose any kind of the housing taxes. Furthermore, the effect of one kind of the housing tax can be strengthened by that of the other type of housing tax.

  6. Population Growth and Sprawl on the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, South Dakota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, R. L.

    2006-05-01

    The most important impact on global land cover is human use and development. With the recent population growth occurring on the reservations in South Dakota, especially Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, the towns and agricultural areas of the reservation are undergoing a change. Although urban sprawl certainly is not a consideration on the reservations, the population explosion currently underway has seen a subsequent increase in rural sprawl. In this case, rural sprawl is defined as exponential population growth and geographic expansion of remote reservation communities. Using satellite imagery and software to render these images is a cost effective way to investigate this growth. Also, using remotely sensed data and a GIS (geographic information system) package can address different issues that concern people and communities in and around the Pine Ridge area. The objective of my project is to observe land use change on the Pine Ridge Indian reservation using Geographic Information Systems such as; ARCGis 9, ENVI, and Multispec, along with Landsat 4, 5, and 7 imagery over the past 20 years.

  7. Plant growth promoting rhizobacteria reduce aphid population and enhance the productivity of bread wheat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naeem, Muhammad; Aslam, Zubair; Khaliq, Abdul; Ahmed, Jam Nazir; Nawaz, Ahmad; Hussain, Mubshar

    2018-04-24

    Plant growth promoting rhizobacteria increase plant growth and give protection against insect pests and pathogens. Due to the negative impact of chemical pesticides on environment, alternatives to these chemicals are needed. In this scenario, the biological methods of pest control offer an eco-friendly and an attractive option. In this study, the effect of two plant growth promoting rhizobacterial strains (Bacillus sp. strain 6 and Pseudomonas sp. strain 6K) on aphid population and wheat productivity was evaluated in an aphid susceptible (Pasban-90) and resistant (Inqlab-91) wheat cultivar. The seeds were inoculated with each PGPR strain, separately or the combination of both. The lowest aphid population (2.1tiller -1 ), and highest plant height (85.8cm), number of spikelets per spike (18), grains per spike (44), productive tillers (320m -2 ), straw yield (8.6Mgha -1 ), and grain yield (4.8Mgha -1 ) were achieved when seeds were inoculated with Bacillus sp. strain 6+Pseudomonas sp. strain 6K. The grain yield of both varieties was enhanced by 35.5-38.9% with seed inoculation with both bacterial strains. Thus, the combine use of both PGPR strains viz. Bacillus sp. strain 6+Pseudomonas sp. strain 6K offers an attractive option to reduce aphid population tied with better wheat productivity. Copyright © 2018 Sociedade Brasileira de Microbiologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  8. HIV rapid diagnostic testing by lay providers in a key population-led health service programme in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wongkanya, Rapeeporn; Pankam, Tippawan; Wolf, Shauna; Pattanachaiwit, Supanit; Jantarapakde, Jureeporn; Pengnongyang, Supabhorn; Thapwong, Prasopsuk; Udomjirasirichot, Apichat; Churattanakraisri, Yutthana; Prawepray, Nanthika; Paksornsit, Apiluk; Sitthipau, Thidadaow; Petchaithong, Sarayut; Jitsakulchaidejt, Raruay; Nookhai, Somboon; Lertpiriyasuwat, Cheewanan; Ongwandee, Sumet; Phanuphak, Praphan; Phanuphak, Nittaya

    2018-01-01

    Introduction:  Rapid diagnostic testing (RDT) for HIV has a quick turn-around time, which increases the proportion of people testing who receive their result. HIV RDT in Thailand has traditionally been performed only by medical technologists (MTs), which is a barrier to its being scaled up. We evaluated the performance of HIV RDT conducted by trained lay providers who were members of, or worked closely with, a group of men who have sex with men (MSM) and with transgender women (TG) communities, and compared it to tests conducted by MTs. Methods:  Lay providers received a 3-day intensive training course on how to perform a finger-prick blood collection and an HIV RDT as part of the Key Population-led Health Services (KPLHS) programme among MSM and TG. All the samples were tested by lay providers using Alere Determine HIV 1/2. HIV-reactive samples were confirmed by DoubleCheckGold Ultra HIV 1&2 and SD Bioline HIV 1/2. All HIV-positive and 10% of HIV-negative samples were re-tested by MTs using Serodia HIV 1/2. Results:  Of 1680 finger-prick blood samples collected and tested using HIV RDT by lay providers in six drop-in centres in Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Chonburi and Songkhla, 252 (15%) were HIV-positive. MTs re-tested these HIV-positive samples and 143 randomly selected HIV-negative samples with 100% concordant test results. Conclusion:  Lay providers in Thailand can be trained and empowered to perform HIV RDT as they were found to achieve comparable results in sample testing with MTs. Based on the task-shifting concept, this rapid HIV testing performed by lay providers as part of the KPLHS programme has great potential to enhance HIV prevention and treatment programmes among key at-risk populations.

  9. Body composition and energetic efficiency in two lines of mice selected for rapid growth rate and their F1 crosses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisen, E J; Bakker, H; Nagai, J

    1977-01-01

    Correlated responses to selection for increased growth rate were compared in two mouse populations (M16 and H6) of distinct genetic origin. Traits studied were body composition, feed intake, constituent gains and energetic efficiency. When compared with their respective controls (ICR and C2) at 6 and 9 weeks of age, body weight increased more in M16 (57%and 69 % of the control mean) than in H6 (40 % and 34%). The M16 showed correlated responses in fat percent of 2.6% (P .05). The correlated responses in fat percent were 2.7 and 4.7 times higher in M16 than H6 at 6 and 9 weeks. The regression of ln fat weight on ln empty body weight was larger in M16 (P calories and ash; fat and caloric gain and efficiency exhibited higher correlated responses in M16 than H6. During the 6- to 9-week interval, the M16 population continued to evince positive correlated responses in gains and efficiencies of fat, protein and calories, whereas H6 did not. Several possible explanations are presented to account for the differences in correlated responses between the selected populations. Partitioning of correlated response differences between M16 and H6 into average direct and average maternal genetic effects indicated that average direct genetic effects, favoring M16, were responsible for the major difference between the selected populations. Direct heterosis in F1 crosses of the selected populations were generally not significant, although there was a tendency for fat percent and fat weight to show heterosis.

  10. Texture control and growth mechanism of WSe{sub 2} film prepared by rapid selenization of W film

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Hongchao [State Key Laboratory of Powder Metallurgy, Central South University, Changsha 410083 (China); Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry Corporation Limited, Ganzhou 341300 (China); Gao, Di; Li, Kun; Pang, Mengde; Xie, Senlin [State Key Laboratory of Powder Metallurgy, Central South University, Changsha 410083 (China); Liu, Rutie, E-mail: llrrtt@csu.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Powder Metallurgy, Central South University, Changsha 410083 (China); Zou, Jianpeng [State Key Laboratory of Powder Metallurgy, Central South University, Changsha 410083 (China)

    2017-02-01

    Highlights: • We present a highly efficient method for preparing WSe{sub 2} film by rapid selenization. • The W film phase composition has little effect on WSe{sub 2} film orientation. • W film density is a critical factor that influences the WSe{sub 2} orientation. • A growth model was proposed for two kinds of WSe{sub 2} film textures. - Abstract: The tungsten diselenide (WSe{sub 2}) films with different orientation present unique properties suitable for specific applications, such as WSe{sub 2} with a C-axis⊥substrate for optoelectronics and WSe{sub 2} with a C-axis // substrate for electrocatalysts. Orientation control of WSe{sub 2} is essential for realizing the practical applications. In this letter, a WSe{sub 2} film has been prepared via rapid selenization of a magnetron-sputtered tungsten (W) film. The influence of the magnetron-sputtered W film on WSe{sub 2} film growth was studied systematically. Scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffractometry and high-resolution transmission electron microscopy were used to evaluate the morphology, microstructure and phase composition of the W and WSe{sub 2} films. The substrate temperature has a significant effect on the W film phase composition, but little effect on the WSe{sub 2} film orientation. The WSe{sub 2} orientation can be controlled by changing the W film microstructure. A dense W film that is deposited at low pressure is conducive to the formation of WSe{sub 2} with a C-axis⊥substrate, whereas a porous W film deposited at high pressure favors the formation of WSe{sub 2} with a C-axis // substrate. A growth model for the WSe{sub 2} film with different texture has been proposed based on the experimental results. The direction of selenium (Se) vapor diffusion differs at the top and side surfaces. This is a key factor for the preparation of anisotropic WSe{sub 2} films. Highly oriented WSe{sub 2} films with a C-axis⊥substrate grow from the dense W film deposited at low pressure because Se vapor

  11. Using a laboratory-based growth model to estimate mass- and temperature-dependent growth parameters across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Plumb, John M.; Huntington, Charles

    2015-01-01

    To estimate the parameters that govern mass- and temperature-dependent growth, we conducted a meta-analysis of existing growth data from juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that were fed an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet. Although the growth of juvenile Chinook Salmon has been well studied, research has focused on a single population, a narrow range of fish sizes, or a narrow range of temperatures. Therefore, we incorporated the Ratkowsky model for temperature-dependent growth into an allometric growth model; this model was then fitted to growth data from 11 data sources representing nine populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon. The model fit the growth data well, explaining 98% of the variation in final mass. The estimated allometric mass exponent (b) was 0.338 (SE = 0.025), similar to estimates reported for other salmonids. This estimate of b will be particularly useful for estimating mass-standardized growth rates of juvenile Chinook Salmon. In addition, the lower thermal limit, optimal temperature, and upper thermal limit for growth were estimated to be 1.8°C (SE = 0.63°C), 19.0°C (SE = 0.27°C), and 24.9°C (SE = 0.02°C), respectively. By taking a meta-analytical approach, we were able to provide a growth model that is applicable across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon receiving an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet.

  12. Determining individual variation in growth and its implication for life-history and population processes using the empirical Bayes method.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Vincenzi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth and L∞ (asymptotic size. Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC, the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish.

  13. Determining individual variation in growth and its implication for life-history and population processes using the empirical Bayes method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Crivelli, Alain J; Munch, Stephan; Skaug, Hans J

    2014-09-01

    The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and L∞ (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish.

  14. The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers to population growth vary among local populations of Greater Sage-Grouse: An integrated population modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Halstead, Brian J.; Casazza, Michael L.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Wiechman, Lief; Tebbenkamp, Joel; Gardner, Scott C.; Reese, Kerry P.

    2018-01-01

    Consideration of ecological scale is fundamental to understanding and managing avian population growth and decline. Empirically driven models for population dynamics and demographic processes across multiple spatial scales can be powerful tools to help guide conservation actions. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a framework for better parameter estimation by unifying multiple sources of data (e.g., count and demographic data). Hierarchical structure within such models that include random effects allow for varying degrees of data sharing across different spatiotemporal scales. We developed an IPM to investigate Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on the border of California and Nevada, known as the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment. Our analysis integrated 13 years of lek count data (n > 2,000) and intensive telemetry (VHF and GPS; n > 350 individuals) data across 6 subpopulations. Specifically, we identified the most parsimonious models among varying random effects and density-dependent terms for each population vital rate (e.g., nest survival). Using a joint likelihood process, we integrated the lek count data with the demographic models to estimate apparent abundance and refine vital rate parameter estimates. To investigate effects of climatic conditions, we extended the model to fit a precipitation covariate for instantaneous rate of change (r). At a metapopulation extent (i.e. Bi-State), annual population rate of change λ (er) did not favor an overall increasing or decreasing trend through the time series. However, annual changes in λ were driven by changes in precipitation (one-year lag effect). At subpopulation extents, we identified substantial variation in λ and demographic rates. One subpopulation clearly decoupled from the trend at the metapopulation extent and exhibited relatively high risk of extinction as a result of low egg fertility. These findings can inform localized, targeted management actions for specific areas

  15. REGIONAL COMPONENTS OF GROWTH THE QUALITY OF LIFE OF THE POPULATION (FOR EXAMPLE, VORONEZH REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Serebryakova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available At the present stage of development of economy there is a transformation of main objectives of the state from ensuring growth of welfare of citizens to ensuring continuous growth of quality of life. Ensuring growth of quality of life of the population is carried out not only on state, but also on regional levels. At the state level key tasks are formed, the state assumes a considerable share of functions on achievement of the designated purpose. In the real research the attention to consideration of the program documents directed on improvement of quality of life of the population on the example of the Voronezh region is paid. The program documents of a social orientation existing in the region are for this purpose studied. It is revealed that in the region a number of the programs and subprogrammes aimed at improvement of a demographic situation, improvement of a regional budgetary and tax policy, social support of citizens in general works. As tools which use regional authorities, are noted: social standards, address social help, social contracts. It is established that introduction of system of social contracts allows to save budget funds and, at the same time, to motivate the persons which are in a difficult life situation on change of the situation to the best, joint efforts with social security authorities. It is noted that as the leading principles of rendering the social help paramount value has detailed definition of degree of need of the help and a condition of granting. The last often generate dependant moods which are important for leveling, using levers of social interaction. The analysis of the contents of the realized programs for improvement of quality of life of the population allowed to reveal advantages and defects in these programs, and also to define reserves of growth of quality of life. So, it is specified that program documents of regional level in the prevailing majority have a narrow focus on ensuring the help and

  16. Spatial analysis of cattle and shoat population in Ethiopia: growth trend, distribution and market access.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leta, Samson; Mesele, Frehiwot

    2014-01-01

    The livestock subsector has an enormous contribution to Ethiopia's national economy and livelihoods of many Ethiopians. The subsector contributes about 16.5% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 35.6% of the agricultural GDP. It also contributes 15% of export earnings and 30% of agricultural employment. The livestock subsector currently support and sustain livelihoods for 80% of all rural population. The GDP of livestock related activities valued at 59 billion birr. Ethiopian livestock population trends, distribution and marketing vary considerably across space and time due to a variety of reasons. This study was aimed to assess cattle and shoat population growth trend, distribution and their access to market. Regression analysis was used to assess the cattle and shoat population growth trend and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques were used to determine the spatial distribution of cattle and shoats, and their relative access to market. The data sets used are agricultural census (2001/02) and annual CSA agricultural sample survey (1995/96 to 2012/13). In the past eighteen years, the livestock population namely cattle, sheep and goat grew from 54.5 million to over 103.5 million with average annual increment of 3.4 million. The current average national cattle, sheep and goat population per km(2) are estimated to be 71, 33 and 29 respectively (excluding Addis Ababa, Afar and Somali regions). From the total livestock population the country owns about 46% cattle, 43% sheep and 40% goats are reared within 10 km radius from major livestock market centres and all-weather roads. On the other hand, three fourth of the country's land mass which comprises 15% of the cattle, 20% of the sheep and 21% of goat population is not accessible to market (greater than 30 km from major livestock market centres). It is found that the central highland regions account for the largest share of livestock population and also more accessible to market. Defining the

  17. Climate threats on growth of rear-edge European beech peripheral populations in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorado-Liñán, I.; Akhmetzyanov, L.; Menzel, A.

    2017-12-01

    European beech ( Fagus sylvatica L.) forests in the Iberian Peninsula are a clear example of a temperate forest tree species at the rear edge of its large distribution area in Europe. The expected drier and warmer climate may alter tree growth and species distribution. Consequently, the peripheral populations will most likely be the most threatened ones. Four peripheral beech forests in the Iberian Peninsula were studied in order to assess the climate factors influencing tree growth for the last six decades. The analyses included an individual tree approach in order to detect not only the changes in the sensitivity to climate but also the potential size-mediated sensitivity to climate. Our results revealed a dominant influence of previous and current year summer on tree growth during the last six decades, although the analysis in two equally long periods unveiled changes and shifts in tree sensitivity to climate. The individual tree approach showed that those changes in tree response to climate are not size dependent in most of the cases. We observed a reduced negative effect of warmer winter temperatures at some sites and a generalized increased influence of previous year climatic conditions on current year tree growth. These results highlight the crucial role played by carryover effects and stored carbohydrates for future tree growth and species persistence.

  18. Rapid changes in transcription profiles of the Plasmodium yoelii yir multigene family in clonal populations: lack of epigenetic memory?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deirdre Cunningham

    Full Text Available The pir multigene family, found in the genomes of Plasmodium vivax, P. knowlesi and the rodent malaria species, encode variant antigens that could be targets of the immune response. Individual parasites of the rodent malaria Plasmodium yoelii, selected by micromanipulation, transcribe only 1 to 3 different pir (yir suggesting tight transcriptional control at the level of individual cells. Using microarray and quantitative RT-PCR, we show that despite this very restricted transcription in a single cell, many yir genes are transcribed throughout the intra-erythrocytic asexual cycle. The timing and level of transcription differs between genes, with some being more highly transcribed in ring and trophozoite stages, whereas others are more highly transcribed in schizonts. Infection of immunodeficient mice with single infected erythrocytes results in populations of parasites each with transcriptional profiles different from that of the parent parasite population and from each other. This drift away from the original 'set' of transcribed genes does not appear to follow a preset pattern and "epigenetic memory" of the yir transcribed in the parent parasite can be rapidly lost. Thus, regulation of pir gene transcription may be different from that of the well-characterised multigene family, var, of Plasmodium falciparum.

  19. Population Divergence in Venom Bioactivities of Elapid Snake Pseudonaja textilis: Role of Procoagulant Proteins in Rapid Rodent Prey Incapacitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skejić, Jure; Hodgson, Wayne C.

    2013-01-01

    This study looked at how toxic proteins in venoms of adult Australian eastern Brown snakes Pseudonaja textilis from South Australian and Queensland populations interact with physiological functions of the lab SD rat Rattus norvegicus. Circulatory collapse and incoagulable blood occurred instantly after injection of venom under the dorsal skin of anaesthetised and mechanically ventilated rats in an imitation of a P. textilis bite. Intravenous injection of purified P. textilis (Mackay, QLD) venom prothrombin activator proteins caused instant failure of circulation, testifying of high toxicity of these proteins and suggesting their role in rapid incapacitation of rodent prey. The hypothesis is further supported by circulatory collapse occurring instantly despite artificial respiration in envenomed rats and the finding of extremely high venom procoagulant potency in rat plasma. LC-MS and physiology assays revealed divergent venom composition and biological activity of South Australian (Barossa locality) and Queensland (Mackay locality) populations, which may be driven by selection for different prey. The Queensland venom of P. textilis was found to be more procoagulant and to exhibit predominately presynaptic neurotoxicity, while the South Australian venom contained diverse postsynaptic type II and III α-neurotoxins in addition to the presynaptic neurotoxins and caused significantly faster onset of neuromuscular blockade in the rat phrenic nerve-diaphragm preparation. LC-MS analysis found evidence of multiple coagulation factor X-like proteins in P. textilis venoms, including a match to P. textilis coagulation factor X isoform 2, previously known to be expressed only in the liver. PMID:23691135

  20. Rapidly rising incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in Chinese population: epidemiology in Shanghai during 1997-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhuhui; Sun, Chengjun; Wang, Chunfang; Li, Pin; Wang, Wei; Ye, Jun; Gu, Xuefan; Wang, Xiaodong; Shen, Shuixian; Zhi, Dijing; Lu, Zhong; Ye, Rong; Cheng, Ruoqian; Xi, Li; Li, Xiaojing; Zheng, Zhangqian; Zhang, Miaoying; Luo, Feihong

    2014-12-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate incidence trend of childhood type 1 diabetes in Shanghai, a megalopolis in east China. We established a population-based retrospective registry for the disease in the city's registered population during 1997-2011 and collected 622 incident type 1 diabetes in children aged 0-14 years. Standardized incidence rates and 95 % CI were estimated by applying the capture-recapture method and assuming Poisson distribution. Incidence trend was analyzed using the Poisson regression model. The mean annual incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes was 3.1 per 100,000 person-years. We did not observe significant difference in incidence between boys and girls. The incidence is unstable and had a mean annual increase 14.2 % per year during the studied period. A faster annual increase was observed in boys, warmer seasons, and in the outer regions of the city. If present trends continue, the number of new type 1 diabetes cases will double from 2016 to 2020, and prevalent cases will sextuple by 2025. Our results showed the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes was rising rapidly in Shanghai. More studies are needed to analyze incidence changes in other regions of China for appropriate allocation of healthcare resources.

  1. Population divergence in venom bioactivities of elapid snake Pseudonaja textilis: role of procoagulant proteins in rapid rodent prey incapacitation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jure Skejić

    Full Text Available This study looked at how toxic proteins in venoms of adult Australian eastern Brown snakes Pseudonaja textilis from South Australian and Queensland populations interact with physiological functions of the lab SD rat Rattus norvegicus. Circulatory collapse and incoagulable blood occurred instantly after injection of venom under the dorsal skin of anaesthetised and mechanically ventilated rats in an imitation of a P. textilis bite. Intravenous injection of purified P. textilis (Mackay, QLD venom prothrombin activator proteins caused instant failure of circulation, testifying of high toxicity of these proteins and suggesting their role in rapid incapacitation of rodent prey. The hypothesis is further supported by circulatory collapse occurring instantly despite artificial respiration in envenomed rats and the finding of extremely high venom procoagulant potency in rat plasma. LC-MS and physiology assays revealed divergent venom composition and biological activity of South Australian (Barossa locality and Queensland (Mackay locality populations, which may be driven by selection for different prey. The Queensland venom of P. textilis was found to be more procoagulant and to exhibit predominately presynaptic neurotoxicity, while the South Australian venom contained diverse postsynaptic type II and III α-neurotoxins in addition to the presynaptic neurotoxins and caused significantly faster onset of neuromuscular blockade in the rat phrenic nerve-diaphragm preparation. LC-MS analysis found evidence of multiple coagulation factor X-like proteins in P. textilis venoms, including a match to P. textilis coagulation factor X isoform 2, previously known to be expressed only in the liver.

  2. Integrating physiological and biomechanical drivers of population growth over environmental gradients on coral reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madin, Joshua S; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Connolly, Sean R

    2012-03-15

    Coral reefs exhibit marked spatial and temporal variability, and coral reef organisms exhibit trade-offs in functional traits that influence demographic performance under different combinations of abiotic environmental conditions. In many systems, trait trade-offs are modelled using an energy and/or nutrient allocation framework. However, on coral reefs, differences in biomechanical vulnerability have major demographic implications, and indeed are believed to play an essential role in mediating species coexistence because highly competitive growth forms are vulnerable to physical dislodgment events that occur with high frequency (e.g. annual summer storms). Therefore, an integrated energy allocation and biomechanics framework is required to understand the effect of physical environmental gradients on species' demographic performance. However, on coral reefs, as in most ecosystems, the effects of environmental conditions on organisms are measured in different currencies (e.g. lipid accumulation, survival and number of gametes), and thus the relative contributions of these effects to overall capacity for population growth are not readily apparent. A comprehensive assessment of links between the environment and the organism, including those mediated by biomechanical processes, must convert environmental effects on individual-level performance (e.g. survival, growth and reproduction) into a common currency that is relevant to the capacity to contribute to population growth. We outline such an approach by considering the population-level performance of scleractinian reef corals over a hydrodynamic gradient, with a focus on the integrating the biomechanical determinants of size-dependent coral colony dislodgment as a function of flow, with the effects of flow on photosynthetic energy acquisition and respiration.

  3. APPLICATION OF ELASTICITY ANALYSES AND PERTURBATION SIMULATIONS IN DETERMINING STRESSOR IMPACTS ON POPULATION GROWTH RATE AND EXTINCTION RISK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Population structure and life history strategies are determinants of how populations respond to stressor-induced impairments in individual-level responses, but a consistent and holistic analysis has not been reported. Effects on population growth rate were modeled using five theo...

  4. Social life factors affecting the mortality, longevity, and birth rate of total Japanese population: effects of rapid industrialization and urbanization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araki, S; Uchida, E; Murata, K

    1990-12-01

    To expand upon the findings that lower mortality was found in Japanese urban areas in contrast to the Western model where in the US and Britain the risk of death was higher in metropolitan areas and conurbations, 22 social life indicators are examined among 46 prefectures in Japan in terms of their effect on age specific mortality, life expectancy, and age adjusted marriage, divorce, and birth rates. The effects of these factors on age adjusted mortality for 8 major working and nonworking male populations, where also analyzed. The 22 social life factors were selected from among 227 indicators in the system of Statistical Indicators on Life. Factor analysis was used to classify the indicators into 8 groups of factors for 1970 and 7 for 1975. Factors 1-3 for both years were rural or urban residence, low income and unemployment, and prefectural age distribution. The 4th for 1970 was home help for the elderly and for 1975, social mobility. The social life indicators were classified form 1 to 8 as rural residence in 1970 and 1975, urban residence, low income, high employment, old age, young age, social mobility, and home help for the elderly which moved from 8th place in 1970 to 1st in 1975. Between 1960-75, rapid urbanization took place with the proportion of farmers, fishermen, and workers declining from 43% in 1960 to 19% in 1975. The results of stepwise regression analysis indicate a positive relationship of urban residence with mortality of men and women except school-aged and middle-aged women, and the working populations, as well as life expectancy at birth for males and females and ages 20 and 40 years for males. Rural residence was positively associated with the male marriage rate, whereas the marriage rate for females was affected by industrialization and urbanization. High employment and social mobility were positively related to the female marriage rate. Low income was positively related to the divorce rate for males and females. Rural residence and high

  5. Bone growth, limb proportions and non-specific stress in archaeological populations from Croatia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinhasi, R; Timpson, A; Thomas, M; Slaus, M

    2014-01-01

    The effect of environmental factors and, in particular, non-specific stress on the growth patterns of limbs and other body dimensions of children from past populations is not well understood. This study assesses whether growth of mediaeval and post-mediaeval children aged between 0-11.5 years from Adriatic (coastal) and continental Croatia varies by region and by the prevalence and type of non-specific stress. Dental ages were estimated using the Moorrees, Fanning and Hunt (MFH) scoring method. Growth of long bone diaphyses (femur, tibia, humerus, radius and ulna) was assessed by using a composite Z-score statistic (CZS). Clavicular length was measured as a proxy for upper trunk width, distal metaphyseal width of the femur was measured as a proxy for body mass and upper and lower intra-limb indices were calculated. Differences between sub-sets sampled by (a) region and (b) active vs healed non-specific stress indicators and (c) intra-limb indices were tested by Mann--Whitney U-tests and Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA). Adriatic children attained larger dimensions-per-age than continental children. Children with healed stress lesions had larger dimensions-per-age than those with active lesions. No inter-regional difference was found in intra-limb indices. These findings highlight the complexity of growth patterns in past populations and indicate that variation in environmental conditions such as diet and differences in the nature of non-specific stress lesions both exert a significant effect on long bone growth.

  6. [The impact of population growth on Tamba Kosi, a Himalayan valley in Nepal].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verliat, S

    1994-01-01

    Two several-month-long stays in the isolated Tamba Kosi valley in Nepal in 1983 and 1986 allowed an assessment of the importance of changes in rural societies. In about 50 years, the oldest inhabitants of some villages have seen the number of houses quadruple. In the absence of reliable statistical data, the inhabitants say that the Tamba Kosi valley population has doubled in the last 25 years. This population growth exacerbates the multiethnic fight for good land (i.e., ground of modest slope, hot, and humid). Many people have emigrated, which has somewhat eased problems relative to population growth. Soil degradation, which is becoming more and more acute, drives the inhabitants to cut down trees and clear the land for cultivation of new plots. These new plots are running up against steep slopes and high altitude. Most families have barely two hectares, which must suffice to feed 5-6 people on average. This fuels intensification of agricultural production, resulting in low efficacy. Livestock mutilate forests with their hooves and teeth. The marked increase in the variety of livestock accelerates this destruction. Three types of building materials are used in this high valley: thatch, shingles (fir tree), and bamboo matting. The disappearance of wild grasses used to make thatch roofs and people moving to higher and higher altitudes resulted in use of shingles to make roofs. Buildings made of shingles, which demanded changes in construction techniques, changed the conception of homes. They became the preferred building type, which increased the demand for fir trees and deforestation. This lead to a demand for roofing material made of bamboo matting and another change in construction techniques. The retreat of the forest and disappearance of the most wanted plant species are the most spectacular impacts of population growth. This environmental degradation exacerbates erosion at all bioclimatic altitudes.

  7. Beyond birth-weight: early growth and adolescent blood pressure in a Peruvian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robie Sterling

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background. Longitudinal investigations into the origins of adult essential hypertension have found elevated blood pressure in children to accurately track into adulthood, however the direct causes of essential hypertension in adolescence and adulthood remains unclear.Methods. We revisited 152 Peruvian adolescents from a birth cohort tracked from 0 to 30 months of age, and evaluated growth via monthly anthropometric measurements between 1995 and 1998, and obtained anthropometric and blood pressure measurements 11–14 years later. We used multivariable regression models to study the effects of infantile and childhood growth trends on blood pressure and central obesity in early adolescence.Results. In regression models adjusted for interim changes in weight and height, each 0.1 SD increase in weight for length from 0 to 5 months of age, and 1 SD increase from 6 to 30 months of age, was associated with decreased adolescent systolic blood pressure by 1.3 mm Hg (95% CI −2.4 to −0.1 and 2.5 mm Hg (95% CI −4.9 to 0.0, and decreased waist circumference by 0.6 (95% CI −1.1 to 0.0 and 1.2 cm (95% CI −2.3 to −0.1, respectively. Growth in infancy and early childhood was not significantly associated with adolescent waist-to-hip ratio.Conclusions. Rapid compensatory growth in early life has been posited to increase the risk of long-term cardiovascular morbidities such that nutritional interventions may do more harm than good. However, we found increased weight growth during infancy and early childhood to be associated with decreased systolic blood pressure and central adiposity in adolescence.

  8. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

  9. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low-or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

  10. Crowded growth leads to the spontaneous evolution of semistable coexistence in laboratory yeast populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frenkel, Evgeni M; McDonald, Michael J; Van Dyken, J David; Kosheleva, Katya; Lang, Gregory I; Desai, Michael M

    2015-09-08

    Identifying the mechanisms that create and maintain biodiversity is a central challenge in biology. Stable diversification of microbial populations often requires the evolution of differences in resource utilization. Alternatively, coexistence can be maintained by specialization to exploit spatial heterogeneity in the environment. Here, we report spontaneous diversification maintained by a related but distinct mechanism: crowding avoidance. During experimental evolution of laboratory Saccharomyces cerevisiae populations, we observed the repeated appearance of "adherent" (A) lineages able to grow as a dispersed film, in contrast to their crowded "bottom-dweller" (B) ancestors. These two types stably coexist because dispersal reduces interference competition for nutrients among kin, at the cost of a slower maximum growth rate. This tradeoff causes the frequencies of the two types to oscillate around equilibrium over the course of repeated cycles of growth, crowding, and dispersal. However, further coevolution of the A and B types can perturb and eventually destroy their coexistence over longer time scales. We introduce a simple mathematical model of this "semistable" coexistence, which explains the interplay between ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Because crowded growth generally limits nutrient access in biofilms, the mechanism we report here may be broadly important in maintaining diversity in these natural environments.

  11. Warming, soil moisture, and loss of snow increase Bromus tectorum’s population growth rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aldo Compagnoni

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Climate change threatens to exacerbate the impacts of invasive species. In temperate ecosystems, direct effects of warming may be compounded by dramatic reductions in winter snow cover. Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum is arguably the most destructive biological invader in basins of the North American Intermountain West, and warming could increase its performance through direct effects on demographic rates or through indirect effects mediated by loss of snow. We conducted a two-year experimental manipulation of temperature and snow pack to test whether 1 warming increases cheatgrass population growth rate and 2 reduced snow cover contributes to cheatgrass’ positive response to warming. We used infrared heaters operating continuously to create the warming treatment, but turned heaters on only during snowfalls for the snowmelt treatment. We monitored cheatgrass population growth rate and the vital rates that determine it: emergence, survival and fecundity. Growth rate increased in both warming and snowmelt treatments. The largest increases occurred in warming plots during the wettest year, indicating that the magnitude of response to warming depends on moisture availability. Warming increased both fecundity and survival, especially in the wet year, while snowmelt contributed to the positive effects of warming by increasing survival. Our results indicate that increasing temperature will exacerbate cheatgrass impacts, especially where warming causes large reductions in the depth and duration of snow cover.

  12. Nonlinear dynamics in a business-cycle model with logistic population growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brianzoni, Serena; Mammana, Cristiana; Michetti, Elisabetta

    2009-01-01

    We consider a discrete-time growth model of the Solow type where workers and shareholders have different but constant saving rates and the population growth dynamics is described by the logistic equation able to exhibit complicated dynamics. We show conditions for the resulting system having a compact global attractor and we describe its structure. We also perform a mainly numerical analysis using the critical lines method able to describe the strange attractor and the absorbing area, in order to show how cyclical or complex fluctuations may be produced in a business-cycle model. We study the dynamic behaviour of the model under different ranges of the main parameters, i.e. the elasticity of substitution between the two production factors and the one in the logistic equation (namely μ). We prove the existence of complex dynamics when the elasticity of substitution between production factors drops below one (so that capital income declines) or μ increases (so that the amplitude of movements in the population growth rate increases).

  13. An Assessment of Factors Affecting Population Growth of the Mountain Plover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen J. Dinsmore

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Effective conservation measures should target the most sensitive life history attributes of a species, assuming they are responsive to potential management actions. The Mountain Plover (Charadrius montanus is a species of conservation concern with a patchy breeding distribution in western North America. Plovers prefer areas with short vegetation, bare ground, and disturbance for nesting. Current management tools, including grazing and burning, have been used to attract plovers and enhance nesting success. We used a stage-specific matrix model to study the influence of vital rates, e.g., juvenile and adult annual survival, on population growth rate in the Mountain Plover at two breeding sites in Colorado, South Park and Eastern Colorado, and one breeding site in Montana, USA. Our analysis was motivated by a need to 1 better understand the relationship between demographic rates and population growth rate, 2 assess current management tools for the plover by exploring their effect on population growth rate, and 3 identify areas of the plover's population biology where additional demographic work is needed. Stochastic population growth rate was most influenced by adult survival, especially in Montana and South Park, Colorado (elasticities > 0.60, and was least influenced by first-year reproduction (all elasticities < 0.20. The modeled relationships between lambda and each demographic rate were generally weak (r2 < 0.30 with the exception of number of eggs hatched per nest in Eastern Colorado (r2 = 0.63, chick survival in South Park (r2 = 0.40 and Montana (r2 = 0.38, and adult survival in Montana (r2 = 0.36. We examined the predicted increase in lambda that would result from increasing each demographic rate from its mean to the maximum value observed in our simulations. Chick and adult survival showed the greatest increase in lambda while eggs hatched per nest produced the smallest increase. Our results suggest that future conservation efforts should

  14. Rapid Measurements of Aerosol Size Distribution and Hygroscopic Growth via Image Processing with a Fast Integrated Mobility Spectrometer (FIMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Pinterich, T.; Spielman, S. R.; Hering, S. V.; Wang, J.

    2017-12-01

    Aerosol size distribution and hygroscopicity are among key parameters in determining the impact of atmospheric aerosols on global radiation and climate change. In situ submicron aerosol size distribution measurements commonly involve a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS). The SMPS scanning time is in the scale of minutes, which is often too slow to capture the variation of aerosol size distribution, such as for aerosols formed via nucleation processes or measurements onboard research aircraft. To solve this problem, a Fast Integrated Mobility Spectrometer (FIMS) based on image processing was developed for rapid measurements of aerosol size distributions from 10 to 500 nm. The FIMS consists of a parallel plate classifier, a condenser, and a CCD detector array. Inside the classifier an electric field separates charged aerosols based on electrical mobilities. Upon exiting the classifier, the aerosols pass through a three stage growth channel (Pinterich et al. 2017; Spielman et al. 2017), where aerosols as small as 7 nm are enlarged to above 1 μm through water or heptanol condensation. Finally, the grown aerosols are illuminated by a laser sheet and imaged onto a CCD array. The images provide both aerosol concentration and position, which directly relate to the aerosol size distribution. By this simultaneous measurement of aerosols with different sizes, the FIMS provides aerosol size spectra nearly 100 times faster than the SMPS. Recent deployment onboard research aircraft demonstrated that the FIMS is capable of measuring aerosol size distributions in 1s (Figure), thereby offering a great advantage in applications requiring high time resolution (Wang et al. 2016). In addition, the coupling of the FIMS with other conventional aerosol instruments provides orders of magnitude more rapid characterization of aerosol optical and microphysical properties. For example, the combination of a differential mobility analyzer, a relative humidity control unit, and a FIMS was

  15. A fuzzy mathematical model of West Java population with logistic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurkholipah, N. S.; Amarti, Z.; Anggriani, N.; Supriatna, A. K.

    2018-03-01

    In this paper we develop a mathematics model of population growth in the West Java Province Indonesia. The model takes the form as a logistic differential equation. We parameterize the model using several triples of data, and choose the best triple which has the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The resulting model is able to predict the historical data with a high accuracy and it also able to predict the future of population number. Predicting the future population is among the important factors that affect the consideration is preparing a good management for the population. Several experiment are done to look at the effect of impreciseness in the data. This is done by considering a fuzzy initial value to the crisp model assuming that the model propagates the fuzziness of the independent variable to the dependent variable. We assume here a triangle fuzzy number representing the impreciseness in the data. We found that the fuzziness may disappear in the long-term. Other scenarios also investigated, such as the effect of fuzzy parameters to the crisp initial value of the population. The solution of the model is obtained numerically using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta scheme.

  16. Endogenous Population Dynamics and Economic Growth with Free Trade between Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper builds a model to deal with dynamic interdependence between different countries' birth rates, mortality rates, populations, wealth accumulation, and time distributions between working, leisure and children caring. The model shows the role of human capital, technological and preference changes on national differences in birth rates, mortality rates, time distributions, population change, and wealth accumulation. The economic mechanisms of wealth accumulation, production and trade are based the Solow growth model and the Oniki-Uzawa trade model. We use the utility function proposed by Zhang to describe the behavior of households. We model national and gender differences in human capital, propensity to have children, propensity to use leisure time, and children caring efficiency. We describe the dynamics of global economic growth, trade patterns, national differences in wealth, income, birth rates, mortality rates, and populations with differential equations. We simulate the model to show the motion of the system and identify the existence of equilibrium point. We also examine the effects of changes in the propensity to have children, the propensity to save, woman's propensity to use leisure, woman's human capital, and woman's emotional involvement in children caring on the dynamics of the global and national economies.

  17. The hydrocarbon era, world population growth and oil use -- a continuing geological challenge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Townes, H.L.

    1993-01-01

    The world's use of oil, the relationship of world population growth to this use, and what the energy situation might be in the future is a challenge to the geologist. The earth's population doubled between 1930 and 1975 and a comparison of world petroleum use and population growth show similar upward curves. Of the annual fossil fuel resources used in the world, crude oil supplies over 40 percent of the total resources. Petroleum is a finite resource and a projection of world oil production indicates it will peak early in the 21st century. Assuming an ultimate recovery range of 2600 to 3000 billion barrels of oil, 750 billion barrels have already been produced, there are 1000 billion barrels in proven reserves, and 1000 billion barrels remaining to be discovered. The challenge to the geologist will be to find these hidden oil reserves. Recovering this 1000 billion barrels of new oil reserves will require large capital expenditures and, currently, only 60 percent of the capital needed to discover this oil is being spent. With the world's demand for oil increasing, world-wide exploration expenditures are actually decreasing. Simple economics indicates that the reason for this drop in expenditures is that the price of oil is too low to encourage investment. Low oil prices also discourage investment in the development of alternative fuels. There is plenty of oil now, but the world must look to the future and realize present usage rate cannot continue forever. 23 refs., 10 figs

  18. An application of the variable-r method to subpopulation growth rates in a 19th century agricultural population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corey Sparks

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of the differential growth rates of the farming and non-farming segments of a rural Scottish community during the 19th and early 20th centuries using the variable-r method allowing for net migration. Using this method, I find that the farming population of Orkney, Scotland, showed less variability in their reproduction and growth rates than the non-farming population during a period of net population decline. I conclude by suggesting that the variable-r method can be used in general cases where the relative growth of subpopulations or subpopulation reproduction is of interest.

  19. PROTOPLANETARY DISK MASSES IN IC348: A RAPID DECLINE IN THE POPULATION OF SMALL DUST GRAINS AFTER 1 Myr

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Nicholas; Williams, Jonathan P.; Cieza, Lucas A.

    2011-01-01

    We present a 1.3 mm continuum survey of protoplanetary disks in the 2-3 Myr old cluster, IC348, with the Submillimeter Array. We observed 85 young stellar objects and detected 10 with 1.3 mm fluxes greater than 2 mJy. The brightest source is a young embedded protostar driving a molecular outflow. The other nine detections are dusty disks around optically visible stars. Our millimeter flux measurements translate into total disk masses ranging from 2 to 6 Jupiter masses. Each detected disk has strong mid-infrared emission in excess of the stellar photosphere and has Hα equivalent widths larger than the average in the cluster and indicative of ongoing gas accretion. The disk mass distribution, however, is shifted by about a factor of 20 to lower masses, compared to that in the ∼1 Myr old Taurus and Ophiuchus regions. These observations reveal the rapid decline in the number of small dust grains in disks with time and probably their concomitant growth beyond millimeter sizes. Moreover, if IC348 is to form planets in the same proportion as detected in the field, these faint millimeter detections may represent the best candidates in the cluster to study the progression from planetesimals to planets.

  20. Local population extinction and vitality of an epiphytic lichen in fragmented old-growth forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ockinger, Erik; Nilsson, Sven G

    2010-07-01

    The population dynamics of organisms living in short-lived habitats will largely depend on the turnover of habitat patches. It has been suggested that epiphytes, whose host plants can be regarded as habitat patches, often form such patch-tracking populations. However, very little is known about the long-term fate of epiphyte individuals and populations. We estimated life span and assessed environmental factors influencing changes in vitality, fertility, abundance, and distribution of the epiphytic lichen species Lobaria pulmonaria on two spatial scales, individual trees and forest patches, over a period of approximately 10 years in 66 old-growth forest fragments. The lichen had gone extinct from 7 of the 66 sites (13.0%) where it was found 10 years earlier, even though the sites remained unchanged. The risk of local population extinction increased with decreasing population size. In contrast to the decrease in the number of occupied trees and sites, the mean area of the lichen per tree increased by 43.0%. The number of trees with fertile ramets of L. pulmonaria increased from 7 (approximately 1%) to 61 (approximately 10%) trees, and the number of forest fragments with fertile ramets increased from 4 to 23 fragments. The mean annual rate of L. pulmonaria extinction at the tree level was estimated to be 2.52%, translating into an expected lifetime of 39.7 years. This disappearance rate is higher than estimated mortality rates for potential host trees. The risk of extinction at the tree level was significantly positively related to tree circumference and differed between tree species. The probability of presence of fertile ramets increased significantly with local population size. Our results show a long expected lifetime of Lobaria pulmonaria ramets on individual trees and a recent increase in vitality, probably due to decreasing air pollution. The population is, however, declining slowly even though remaining stands are left uncut, which we interpret as an

  1. Density regulation in Northeast Atlantic fish populations: Density dependence is stronger in recruitment than in somatic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, Fabian; Ricard, Daniel; Heino, Mikko

    2018-05-01

    Population regulation is a central concept in ecology, yet in many cases its presence and the underlying mechanisms are difficult to demonstrate. The current paradigm maintains that marine fish populations are predominantly regulated by density-dependent recruitment. While it is known that density-dependent somatic growth can be present too, its general importance remains unknown and most practical applications neglect it. This study aimed to close this gap by for the first time quantifying and comparing density dependence in growth and recruitment over a large set of fish populations. We fitted density-dependent models to time-series data on population size, recruitment and age-specific weight from commercially exploited fish populations in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the Baltic Sea. Data were standardized to enable a direct comparison within and among populations, and estimated parameters were used to quantify the impact of density regulation on population biomass. Statistically significant density dependence in recruitment was detected in a large proportion of populations (70%), whereas for density dependence in somatic growth the prevalence of density dependence depended heavily on the method (26% and 69%). Despite age-dependent variability, the density dependence in recruitment was consistently stronger among age groups and between alternative approaches that use weight-at-age or weight increments to assess growth. Estimates of density-dependent reduction in biomass underlined these results: 97% of populations with statistically significant parameters for growth and recruitment showed a larger impact of density-dependent recruitment on population biomass. The results reaffirm the importance of density-dependent recruitment in marine fishes, yet they also show that density dependence in somatic growth is not uncommon. Furthermore, the results are important from an applied perspective because density dependence in somatic growth affects productivity and

  2. Long-term growth of Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) in a southern Nevada population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medica, P.A.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Saethre, Mary B.

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of growth rates, age at maturity, and longevity are important aspects of a species life history and are directly applicable to life table creation and population viability analyses. We measured the growth of a cohort of 17 semi-wild Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) located in Rock Valley, Nevada over a 47-yr period beginning in 1963. The tortoises were initially marked as hatchling and juvenile animals between the years 1963 and 1965 and ranged in size from 47 to 77 mm in plastron length. We assigned ages of 1-4 yr to the tortoises at initial capture based on their body size. These tortoises were recaptured, measured, and weighed approximately annually since their initial capture. Growth of male and female tortoises did not differ significantly until animals reached the age of 23-25 yr. Annual tortoise growth was correlated with the production of ephemeral vegetation, while accounting for size, sex, and repeated measurements of the animals as well as the interval between measurements. However, the production of ephemeral plants was likewise highly correlated (non-linearly) with winter rainfall. Stochastic predation events between 2003 and 2007 decimated this cohort of tortoises. The average age of the long-term surviving tortoises from this cohort was 43 yr with a range of 39-47 yr. Twelve of the tortoises survived to the age of 39 yr and 11 of the 12 reached 40 yr.

  3. Non-occupational exposure to paint fumes during pregnancy and fetal growth in a general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Mette; Andersen, Anne-Marie N; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole

    2010-01-01

    in their residence during pregnancy. The mothers were also asked about smoking habits and alcohol consumption during pregnancy, pre-pregnancy weight, height, parity and occupation. Information on birth weight and gestational age was obtained from national registers. We found that 45% of the mothers had been exposed......Occupational exposure to organic solvents during pregnancy has been associated with reduced fetal growth. Though organic solvents in the form of paint fumes are also found in the home environment, no studies have investigated the effect of such exposure in a general population. We studied...... associations between residential exposure to paint fumes during pregnancy and fetal growth within the Danish National Birth Cohort which consecutively recruited pregnant women from 1996 to 2002 from all over Denmark. Around the 30th pregnancy week, 19,000 mothers were interviewed about use of paint...

  4. Fetal growth trajectory and risk for eczema in a Saudi population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    AlMakoshi, Amel; Ellahi, Awaiss; Sallout, Bala; Devereux, Graham; Turner, Steve

    2015-12-01

    Recent studies in Western cohorts have identified associations between increasing fetal abdominal circumference (AC) during mid-pregnancy and increased risk for eczema and atopy. We sought to replicate these findings in a Saudi population where antenatal environmental exposures are different compared with Western countries. A Saudi birth cohort was recruited to relate maternal dietary intake and fetal growth to wheeze, eczema, and rhinitis in the first 2 yrs. Fetal size was determined from routine ultrasound scan measurements in the second and third trimesters and birthweight was noted. Parent-reported outcomes during the first 2 yrs were acquired by telephone-administered questionnaire. There were 1076 mothers recruited. AC was determined in 562 for the second, in 632 for the third, and in 281 for both second and third trimesters. A history of eczema was determined in 814 children at 2 yrs of age. There was an inverse relationship between change in abdominal circumference between the second and third trimesters for eczema (OR 0.66 per z score increase in AC [95% CI 0.49, 0.89]), and the quartile with the greatest faltering growth were at increased risk compared with other groups (p ≤ 0.045). Change in fetal size between the third trimester and birth was not associated with altered eczema risk. There were no associations between fetal growth and wheeze at the age of 2 yrs. Our findings contrast observations made in Western populations but nonetheless suggest that factors associated with changing fetal growth trajectory in the second half of pregnancy are also relevant to atopy development on the global setting. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. BREATHING FIRE: HOW STELLAR FEEDBACK DRIVES RADIAL MIGRATION, RAPID SIZE FLUCTUATIONS, AND POPULATION GRADIENTS IN LOW-MASS GALAXIES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Badry, Kareem; Geha, Marla; Wetzel, Andrew; Hopkins, Philip F.; Kereš, Dusan; Chan, T. K.; Faucher-Giguère, Claude-André

    2016-01-01

    We examine the effects of stellar feedback and bursty star formation on low-mass galaxies (M star  = 2 × 10 6  − 5 × 10 10 M ⊙ ) using the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) simulations. While previous studies emphasized the impact of feedback on dark matter profiles, we investigate the impact on the stellar component: kinematics, radial migration, size evolution, and population gradients. Feedback-driven outflows/inflows drive significant radial stellar migration over both short and long timescales via two processes: (1) outflowing/infalling gas can remain star-forming, producing young stars that migrate ∼1 kpc within their first 100 Myr, and (2) gas outflows/inflows drive strong fluctuations in the global potential, transferring energy to all stars. These processes produce several dramatic effects. First, galaxies’ effective radii can fluctuate by factors of >2 over ∼200 Myr, and these rapid size fluctuations can account for much of the observed scatter in the radius at fixed M star . Second, the cumulative effects of many outflow/infall episodes steadily heat stellar orbits, causing old stars to migrate outward most strongly. This age-dependent radial migration mixes—and even inverts—intrinsic age and metallicity gradients. Thus, the galactic-archaeology approach of calculating radial star formation histories from stellar populations at z = 0 can be severely biased. These effects are strongest at M star  ≈ 10 7–9.6 M ⊙ , the same regime where feedback most efficiently cores galaxies. Thus, detailed measurements of stellar kinematics in low-mass galaxies can strongly constrain feedback models and test baryonic solutions to small-scale problems in ΛCDM

  6. BREATHING FIRE: HOW STELLAR FEEDBACK DRIVES RADIAL MIGRATION, RAPID SIZE FLUCTUATIONS, AND POPULATION GRADIENTS IN LOW-MASS GALAXIES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El-Badry, Kareem; Geha, Marla [Department of Astronomy, Yale University, New Haven, CT (United States); Wetzel, Andrew; Hopkins, Philip F. [TAPIR, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA USA (United States); Kereš, Dusan; Chan, T. K. [Department of Physics, Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla (United States); Faucher-Giguère, Claude-André, E-mail: kareem.el-badry@yale.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy and CIERA, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL (United States)

    2016-04-01

    We examine the effects of stellar feedback and bursty star formation on low-mass galaxies (M{sub star} = 2 × 10{sup 6} − 5 × 10{sup 10} M{sub ⊙}) using the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) simulations. While previous studies emphasized the impact of feedback on dark matter profiles, we investigate the impact on the stellar component: kinematics, radial migration, size evolution, and population gradients. Feedback-driven outflows/inflows drive significant radial stellar migration over both short and long timescales via two processes: (1) outflowing/infalling gas can remain star-forming, producing young stars that migrate ∼1 kpc within their first 100 Myr, and (2) gas outflows/inflows drive strong fluctuations in the global potential, transferring energy to all stars. These processes produce several dramatic effects. First, galaxies’ effective radii can fluctuate by factors of >2 over ∼200 Myr, and these rapid size fluctuations can account for much of the observed scatter in the radius at fixed M{sub star}. Second, the cumulative effects of many outflow/infall episodes steadily heat stellar orbits, causing old stars to migrate outward most strongly. This age-dependent radial migration mixes—and even inverts—intrinsic age and metallicity gradients. Thus, the galactic-archaeology approach of calculating radial star formation histories from stellar populations at z = 0 can be severely biased. These effects are strongest at M{sub star} ≈ 10{sup 7–9.6} M{sub ⊙}, the same regime where feedback most efficiently cores galaxies. Thus, detailed measurements of stellar kinematics in low-mass galaxies can strongly constrain feedback models and test baryonic solutions to small-scale problems in ΛCDM.

  7. Local environment and density-dependent feedbacks determine population growth in a forest herb

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahlgren, Johan Petter; Östergård, Hannah; Ehrlén, Johan

    2014-01-01

    Linking spatial variation in environmental factors to variation in demographic rates is essential for a mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of populations. However, we still know relatively little about such links, partly because feedbacks via intraspecific density make them difficult...... to observe in natural populations. We conducted a detailed field study and investigated simultaneous effects of environmental factors and the intraspecific density of individuals on the demography of the herb Lathyrus vernus. In regression models of vital rates we identified effects associated with spring...... shade on survival and growth, while density was negatively correlated with these vital rates. Density was also negatively correlated with average individual size in the study plots, which is consistent with self-thinning. In addition, average plant sizes were larger than predicted by density in plots...

  8. Simultaneous inference of selection and population growth from patterns of variation in the human genome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Williamson, Scott H.; Hernandez, Ryan; Fledel-Alon, Adi

    2005-01-01

    Natural selection and demographic forces can have similar effects on patterns of DNA polymorphism. Therefore, to infer selection from samples of DNA sequences, one must simultaneously account for demographic effects. Here we take a model-based approach to this problem by developing predictions fo......-specific methods, and (iii) strong evidence for very recent population growth....... for patterns of polymorphism in the presence of both population size change and natural selection. If data are available from different functional classes of variation, and a priori information suggests that mutations in one of those classes are selectively neutral, then the putatively neutral class can...... this method to a large polymorphism data set from 301 human genes and find (i) widespread negative selection acting on standing nonsynonymous variation, (ii) that the fitness effects of nonsynonymous mutations are well predicted by several measures of amino acid exchangeability, especially site...

  9. Population movements to a growth-pole: the case of Hosur, Tamil Nadu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heins, J J; Meijer, E N

    1990-08-01

    This study examines the characteristics of population growth in Hosur, a small town in Tamil Nadu, India. "A special feature of the population in Hosur is the phenomenon of bachelors living together, mostly young men who have migrated from big cities. Commuting is not important in the mobility pattern of Hosur, less than ten per cent of employees in the industrial areas travelling daily from outside. Only one-third of the non-migrant labour force has access to the more attractive jobs in the modern factories, while short-term wage labour plays an important role in the labour structure of commuters. The demographic future of Hosur is not connected strongly with commuting patterns, but more with the spatial behaviour of the bachelors." excerpt

  10. Contributions of vital rates to growth of a protected population of American black bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, M.S.; Pacifici, L.B.; Grand, J.B.; Powell, R.A.

    2009-01-01

    Analyses of large, long-lived animals suggest that adult survival generally has the potential to contribute more than reproduction to population growth rate (??), but because survival varies little, high variability in reproduction can have a greater influence. This pattern has been documented for several species of large mammals, but few studies have evaluated such contributions of vital rates to ?? for American black bears (Ursus americanus). We used variance-based perturbation analyses (life table response experiments, LTRE) and analytical sensitivity and elasticity analyses to examine the actual and potential contributions of variation of vital rates to variation in growth rate (??) of a population of black bears inhabiting the Pisgah Bear Sanctuary in the southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina, using a 22-year dataset. We found that recruitment varied more than other vital rates; LTRE analyses conducted over several time intervals thus indicated that recruitment generally contributed at least as much as juvenile and adult survival to observed variation in ??, even though the latter 2 vital rates had the greater potential to affect ??. Our findings are consistent with predictions from studies on polar bears (U. maritimus) and grizzly bears (U. arctos), but contrast with the few existing studies on black bears in ways that suggest levels of protection from human-caused mortality might explain whether adult survival or recruitment contribute most to variation in ?? for this species. We hypothesize that ?? is most strongly influenced by recruitment in protected populations where adult survival is relatively high and constant, whereas adult survival will most influence ?? for unprotected populations. ?? 2009 International Association for Bear Research and Management.

  11. Population growth and development in the Third World: the neocolonial context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, J G; Shrestha, N R

    1988-01-01

    Less developed countries (LDCs) that were colonies of other nations continued operating under the same social and political structures set up by the former ruling nations. The small minority of elites in the LDCs held on to the power acquired during colonial times. In order to preserve their political and financial status after independence, they maintained their close linkages to the capitalist nations and their multinational corporations (MNCs). The elites did not generally have popular support, however. These capitalist nations and their commercial interests continue to dictate most LDCs development process which supports the financial interests of the MNCs and the local elites and not those of the majority, the poor. The poor realize that they are trapped and unable to break away from the economic and political structures, therefore, to assure some form of security, they have many children which exacerbates their poverty. Yet population control policies based on Malthusian theory and those that rely on such undimensional, technical approaches as family planning alone cannot cure the multidimensional social problems of high population growth and poverty. Neither the Malthusian nor Marxist theories totally explain the situation in the LDCs or even provide workable solutions. Research on population and development in LDCs needs to address both the Malthusian concern for the problems posed by high growth rates and the Marxist critique of class struggle in development trends. To eliminate the trap of poverty and dependent economies, each country must design its own remedies based on its history, culture, and geograph