WorldWideScience

Sample records for rapid population growth

  1. Population priorities: the challenge of continued rapid population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Adair

    2009-10-27

    Rapid population growth continues in the least developed countries. The revisionist case that rapid population could be overcome by technology, that population density was advantageous, that capital shallowing is not a vital concern and that empirical investigations had not proved a correlation between high population growth and low per capita income was both empirically and theoretically flawed. In the modern world, population density does not play the role it did in nineteenth-century Europe and rates of growth in some of today's least developed nations are four times than those in nineteenth-century Europe, and without major accumulation of capital per capita, no major economy has or is likely to make the low- to middle-income transition. Though not sufficient, capital accumulation for growth is absolutely essential to economic growth. While there are good reasons for objecting to the enforced nature of the Chinese one-child policy, we should not underestimate the positive impact which that policy has almost certainly had and will have over the next several decades on Chinese economic performance. And a valid reticence about telling developing countries that they must contain fertility should not lead us to underestimate the severely adverse impact of high fertility rates on the economic performance and prospects of many countries in Africa and the Middle East.

  2. Rapid Population Growth and its Implication for Malawi

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Worldwide concern has recently focused on the negative aspects of rapid population growth for the' future as regards natural and non-renewable re- sources, energy and the environment. A United. Nations sponsored international conference on. "Environment and Development" was held in Brazil. inJune 1992 to focus ...

  3. Communication and The Challenges of Rapid Population Growth in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    These factors include religious beliefs, customs and traditions, among others. The discourse also examined the various communication types in Africa and their appropriateness in educating Africans and their governments on the need to control high rate of population growth. Ironically, medical facilities available in African ...

  4. Rapid population growth and environmental degradation: ultimate versus proximate factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, R P

    1989-01-01

    This philosophical review of 2 arguments about responsibility for and solutions to environmental degradation concludes that both sides are correct: the ultimate and the proximal causes. Ultimate causes of pollution are defined as the technology responsible for a given type of pollution, such as burning fossil fuel; proximate causes are defined as situation-specific factors confounding the problem, such as population density or rate of growth. Commoner and others argue that developed countries with low or negative population growth rates are responsible for 80% of world pollution, primarily in polluting technologies such as automobiles, power generation, plastics, pesticides, toxic wastes, garbage, warfaring, and nuclear weapons wastes. Distortionary policies also contribute; examples are agricultural trade protection, land mismanagement, urban bias in expenditures, and institutional rigidity., Poor nations are responsible for very little pollution because poverty allows little waste or expenditures for polluting, synthetic technologies. The proximal causes of pollution include numbers and rate of growth of populations responsible for the pollution. Since change in the ultimate cause of pollution remains out of reach, altering the numbers of polluters can make a difference. Predictions are made for proportions of the world's total waste production, assuming current 1.6 tons/capita for developed countries and 0.17 tons/capita for developing countries. If developing countries grow at current rates and become more wealthy, they will be emitting half the world's waste by 2025. ON the other hand, unsustainable population growth goes along with inadequate investment in human capital: education, health, employment, infrastructure. The solution is to improve farming technologies in the 117 non-self-sufficient countries, fund development in the most unsustainable enclaves of growing countries, break institutionalized socio-political rigidity in these enclaves, and focus on

  5. Rapid Population Growth and Human Carrying Capacity: Two Perspectives. World Bank Staff Working Papers No. 690 and Population and Development Series No. 15.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahar, Dennis J., Ed.; And Others

    Two perspectives on carrying capacity and population growth are examined. The first perspective, "Carrying Capacity and Rapid Population Growth: Definition, Cases, and Consequences" (Robert Muscat), explores the possible meanings of the idea of carrying capacity under developing country conditions, looks at historical and present-day cases of…

  6. Rapid population growth. Effects on the social infrastructures of southern Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J D

    1995-01-01

    Southern Africa's high rate of population growth and widespread poverty have serious implications for the region's social infrastructure. Large increases in the school-age population have undermined efforts to improve the quality of education since all resources are directed toward expansion of availability. To achieve a teacher-pupil ratio of 1:40 at the primary level and 1:35 at the secondary level, an estimated additional 50,000 classrooms would be required. Also jeopardized by high fertility is access to health services, safe water, and sanitation. In Mozambique, for example, where only 30% of the population has access to health services, the under-five years mortality rate is 297/1000 live births and the physician-population ratio is 1:37,970. Substandard housing, homelessness, congestion, deteriorating public services, pollution, and crime dominate urban areas. The single most effective intervention to reduce population growth in Southern Africa is female education. Women without a secondary education bear an average of seven children; if 40% of women attend secondary school, this drops to three children. Thus, governments must make gender equality a central focus of development planning and ensure that women are participants in this process. Property and inheritance laws that serve to increase the economic need for early marriage should be eliminated. Public health programs, including family planning, must be expanded. Finally, women's organizations should be strengthened and urged to foster female empowerment.

  7. Rapid growth and genetic diversity retention in an isolated reintroduced black bear population in the central appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Sean M.; Cox, John J.; Clark, Joseph D.; Augustine, Benjamin J.; Hast, John T.; Gibbs, Dan; Strunk, Michael; Dobey, Steven

    2015-01-01

    Animal reintroductions are important tools of wildlife management to restore species to their historical range, and they can also create unique opportunities to study population dynamics and genetics from founder events. We used non-invasive hair sampling in a systematic, closed-population capture-mark-recapture (CMR) study design at the Big South Fork (BSF) area in Kentucky during 2010 and Tennessee during 2012 to estimate the demographic and genetic characteristics of the black bear (Ursus americanus) population that resulted from a reintroduced founding population of 18 bears in 1998. We estimated 38 (95% CI: 31–66) and 190 (95% CI: 170–219) bears on the Kentucky and Tennessee study areas, respectively. Based on the Tennessee abundance estimate alone, the mean annual growth rate was 18.3% (95% CI: 17.4–19.5%) from 1998 to 2012. We also compared the genetic characteristics of bears sampled during 2010–2012 to bears in the population during 2000–2002, 2–4 years following reintroduction, and to the source population. We found that the level of genetic diversity since reintroduction as indicated by expected heterozygosity (HE) remained relatively constant (HE(source, 2004) = 0.763, HE(BSF, 2000–2002) = 0.729, HE(BSF, 2010–2012) = 0.712) and the effective number of breeders (NB) remained low but had increased since reintroduction in the absence of sufficient immigration (NB(BSF, 2000–2002) = 12, NB(BSF, 2010–2012)  = 35). This bear population appears to be genetically isolated, but contrary to our expectations, we did not find evidence of genetic diversity loss or other deleterious genetic effects typically observed from small founder groups. We attribute that to high initial genetic diversity in the founder group combined with overlapping generations and rapid population growth. Although the population remains relatively small, the reintroduction using a small founder group appears to be demographically and genetically

  8. Problems of rapid growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, T D

    1980-01-01

    South Korea's export-oriented development strategy has achieved a remarkable growth record, but it has also brought 2 different problems: 1) since the country's exports accounted for about 1% of total world export volume, the 1st world has become fearful about Korea's aggressive export drive; and 2) the fact that exports account for over 30% of its total gross national product (GNP) exposes the vulnerability of South Korea's economy itself. South Korea continues to be a poor nation, although it is rated as 1 of the most rapidly growing middle income economies. A World Bank 1978 report shows Korea to be 28th of 58 middle income countries in terms of per capita GNP in 1976. Of 11 newly industrializing countries (NIC), 5 in the European continent are more advanced than the others. A recent emphasis on the basic human needs approach has tended to downgrade the concept of GNP. Korea has only an abundant labor force and is without any natural resources. Consequently, Korea utilized an export-oriented development strategy. Oil requirements are met with imports, and almost all raw materials to be processed into exportable products must be imported. To pay import bills Korea must export and earn foreign exchange. It must be emphasized that foreign trade must always be 2-way traffic. In order to export more to middle income countries like Korea, the countries of the 1st world need to ease their protectionist measures against imports from developing countries.

  9. China urges rapid growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hendry, S.

    1993-02-03

    This time last year China's paramount leader, Deng Xiaoping, launched the country on another bout of fast-paced economic growth and restructuring. After three years of riding out political and economic clampdown, foreign chemical companies were jerked awake by major changes in China's chemical industry. As the state becomes less involved with managing the economy, unleashing 12% gross national product growth, closer involvement with domestic factories has become attractive and essential. MCI officials say government funds will now be channeled toward clearing energy and transport bottlenecks, and chemical enterprises will be given more chance to turn a profit. They will be allowed to issue shares, seek foreign investment partners themselves, and bypass trading companies like China National Import-Export Corp. (Sinochem), the former state monopoly. Foreign analysts question whether China's finances and oil resources can support expansion. Even if they can, Cai estimates that ethylene imports will remain around the present level of 1 million tons. To further guarantee chemical supplies, China has invested in urea and polypropylene plants in the US and polystyrene plant in Hong Kong.

  10. Population growth and economic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayana, D L

    1984-01-01

    This discussion of the issues relating to the problem posed by population explosion in the developing countries and economic growth in the contemporary world covers the following: predictions of economic and social trends; the Malthusian theory of population; the classical or stationary theory of population; the medical triage model; ecological disaster; the Global 2000 study; the limits to growth; critiques of the Limits to Growth model; nonrenewable resources; food and agriculture; population explosion and stabilization; space and ocean colonization; and the limits perspective. The Limits to Growth model, a general equilibrium anti-growth model, is the gloomiest economic model ever constructed. None of the doomsday models, the Malthusian theory, the classical stationary state, the neo-Malthusian medical triage model, the Global 2000 study, are so far reaching in their consequences. The course of events that followed the publication of the "Limits to Growth" in 1972 in the form of 2 oil shocks, food shock, pollution shock, and price shock seemed to bear out formally the gloomy predictions of the thesis with a remarkable speed. The 12 years of economic experience and the knowledge of resource trends postulate that even if the economic pressures visualized by the model are at work they are neither far reaching nor so drastic. Appropriate action can solve them. There are several limitations to the Limits to Growth model. The central theme of the model, which is overshoot and collapse, is unlikely to be the course of events. The model is too aggregative to be realistic. It exaggerates the ecological disaster arising out of the exponential growth of population and industry. The gross underestimation of renewable resources is a basic flaw of the model. The most critical weakness of the model is its gross underestimation of the historical trend of technological progress and the technological possiblities within industry and agriculture. The model does correctly emphasize

  11. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

  12. Global Analysis of Population Growth and Decline

    OpenAIRE

    Sneddon, Mark; Pearse, William D.

    2017-01-01

    Species of plants and animals have populations that are declining at a rapid rate and possibly face extinction. To combat this decline, we must first understand where and why species are declining. We compared known species population growth rates in the COMPADRE (7024 different plant populations) and COMADRE (1927 different animal populations) databases to a variety of possible factors and other databases.

  13. Canada's population: growth and dualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaujot, R P

    1978-04-01

    In Canada the current 1.3% population growth rate is causing some concern. Those concerned argue that such a rate of growth in combination with high levels of consumption could jeopardize the country's resource base and its comfortable style of living. Many Canadians are questioning high levels of immigration, for now that the fertility level is below replacement level, net immigration contributes substantially to population growth (over 1/3 in 1976). The growing proportion of non-Europeans among recent immigrants is causing resentment, and, in a tight job market, immigrants are regarded as threats to the World War 2 baby boom cohort who are now at working ages. The baby boom generation also puts stress on housing and health services, and it will increase the need for pension checks as it ages. Although French fertility is no longer high and immigration is no longer dominated by the British, the French group's 200-year struggle to preserve its identity continues on in the current effort of the Quebec government to enforce the use of French language by law within that province. Geography and climate dictate another demographic fact that divides the country and pervades its history. In addition to intense regionalism, uneven population distribution is responsible for 2 other concerns: the rapid growth of several already large cities and depopulation of many small communities. Focus in this discussion is on Canada's population growth in the past and as projected for the future, historical and current fertility, mortality and immigration trends, the search for a new immigration policy, the impact of the baby boom generation on the population's age structure and the problems this creates, and recent shifts in population distribution and in the country's ethnic and linguistic makeup. The population policy proposals evolved thus far involve to a great extent the use of immigration as a lever for achieving given population objectives.

  14. Population growth: Implications for environmental sustainability ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The impact of population growth on environment and its implication for survival is an important issue. Although considerable attention has been paid to this problem but systematic studies have been inadequate. Rapid population growth and economic development and daily demand for natural resources for domestic and ...

  15. Recent population growth in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosal, G S

    1982-01-01

    Apart from a generalized discussion on the trends of population growth in India during the post-Independence decades and its socio economic implications, this paper examinies in some detail the spatal patterns of population change in India during 1971-1981. The discussion is mainly based on what has emerged on 3 maps depicting percentage change in general and rural and urban population change in India during this decade. While areas of rapid growth of population continue to be associated with net in-migration resulting from: 1) the development of manufacturing industries, mining, trade, and miscellaneous services, all leading to acceleration in the process of urbanization, 2) the development of irrigation and reclamation of land bringing about increased intensity and extension in farming, and 3) infiltration from neighboring countries, particularly from Bangladesh. The areas of relatively low growth are mostly those which have suffered net out-migration induced by pressure of population and paucity of resources or a desire to seek better avenues of employment elsewhere. Superimposed on this is the new trend of declining rate of natural increase, such as in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which has played its own role in bringing down the overall growth rate. Likewise there are areas, such as in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Rajasthan, where recent breakthroughs in the mortality rate, with the birth rate staying at a high level, has stepped up the process of demographic dynamism. A comparison of the spatial patterns of 1971-1981 with those witnessed in precious decades brings out important chnges in these patterns which are occurring as a result of the various areas of the country getting into different phases of the second stage of the "demographic transition." With a view to bringing the benefits of socioeconomic progress to the door steps of all sections of the society in all parts of the country, it is necessary to bring about a substantial decline in the birth rate without

  16. Population growth rates in perfect contraceptive populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udry, J R; Bauman, K E; Chase, C L

    1973-07-01

    Abstract Eventually, world population must cease to grow. In many countries attempts are made to decrease population growth by providing family planning services to all who want to prevent pregnancies. In this paper we use the concept 'perfect contraceptive population',(1) - a population in which no unwanted births occur - to derive estimates of the maximum contribution that prevention of unwanted births might make toward attaining a zero rate of natural increase in population.

  17. City Population Growth and Economic Growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Freire-Gibb, L. Carlos

    2008-01-01

    This article looks at the relationship between city population growth (intimately related to population proximity), and economic development. The hypothesis is that wherever dynamic and inclusive networks exist, there are more opportunities for economic development in this place. When these types...

  18. Determinants of human population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, Wolfgang; Qiang, Ren

    2002-09-29

    The 20th century has seen unprecedented growth of the human population on this planet. While at the beginning of the century the Earth had an estimated 1.6 billion inhabitants, this number grew to 6.1 billion by the end of the century, and further significant growth is a near certainty. This paper tries to summarize what factors lie behind this extraordinary expansion of the human population and what population growth we can expect for the future. It discusses the concept of demographic transition and the preconditions for a lasting secular fertility decline. Recent fertility declines in all parts of the world now make it likely that human population growth will come to an end over the course of this century, but in parts of the developing world significant population growth is still to be expected over the coming decades. The slowing of population growth through declining birth rates, together with still increasing life expectancy, will result in a strong ageing of population age structure. Finally, this paper presents a global level systematic analysis of the relationship between population density on the one hand, and growth and fertility rates on the other. This analysis indicates that in addition to the well-studied social and economic determinants, population density also presents a significant factor for the levels and trends of human birth rates.

  19. Population growth and infant mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Fabella, Christina

    2008-01-01

    The relationship between population growth and economic outcomes is an issue of great policy significance. In the era of the Millennium Development Goals, poverty and its correlates have become the compelling issues. Economic growth may not automatically translate into reductions in poverty and its correlates (may not trickle down) if income distribution is at the same time worsening. We therefore investigate the direct effect of population growth on infant mortality for various income catego...

  20. Determinants of human population growth.

    OpenAIRE

    Lutz, Wolfgang; Qiang, Ren

    2002-01-01

    The 20th century has seen unprecedented growth of the human population on this planet. While at the beginning of the century the Earth had an estimated 1.6 billion inhabitants, this number grew to 6.1 billion by the end of the century, and further significant growth is a near certainty. This paper tries to summarize what factors lie behind this extraordinary expansion of the human population and what population growth we can expect for the future. It discusses the concept of demographic trans...

  1. Population growth and environmental degradation in Malawi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalipeni, E

    1992-01-01

    Malawi has been ranked by the World Bank as one of the poorest countries in Africa. Malawi's only resources are its people and fertile soil, which comprises about 55% of land area. Environmental degradation and population growth conditions in Malawi were used to illustrate the model of environmental degradation linked to population pressure on land resources and government development strategies that favored large-scale agricultural farms. The result has been deforestation, overgrazing, overuse of land for subsistence, and increased population density. The argument was that population growth in some developing countries has been so rapid that environmental collapse is the result. The theoretical framework linking population growth, environment, and resources emphasized processes: 1) the precursor stage of underlying causes; 2) the problem phase with potential ecological and economic decline; and 3) consequences (environmental decline, reduction in food production systems, and reduction in standard of living). The precursors were identified as an agrarian society, lack of a population policy, and emphasis on large families. The problems were rapid population growth and immigration from Mozambique, which led to increased demand for trees for fuel and consequent deforestation, increased demand for arable land and consequent landlessness, increased investment in livestock and consequent overgrazing, and continued population momentum which was a financial burden to government and resulted in increased labor competition. The ecological consequences were soil erosion, degradation of vegetation, and water supply contamination and decline. Eventually, famines will occur and lead to disease, migration, deserted villages, urbanization, unemployment, ethnic conflicts, and political unrest. Population was estimated at 8.75 million in 1990, with exponential growth expected. Completed family size was 6.6 children per woman. Even replacement fertility would mean growth for 50 more

  2. Population growth of small towns in Libyan Arab Jamahiriya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kezeiri, S K

    1987-06-01

    The rapid population growth of small towns in Libya is examined, and future prospects are considered. "Their growth can be attributed to natural increase, internal migration and the influx of foreigners, all of which factors have been stimulated by the State. The paper provides detailed data on the growth and development of small towns and the changes occurring in the overall distribution and density of the Libyan population. The reasons behind the growth and sometimes the demise of individual towns are examined." excerpt

  3. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  4. Population growth and its implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badii, M. H.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Human populations have grown at an unprecedented rate over the past three centuries. By 2001, the world population stood at 6.2 billion people. If the current trend of 1.4 % per year persists, the population will double in 51years. Most of that growth will occur in the less developed countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. There is a serious concern that the number of humans in the world and our impact on the environment will overload the life support systems of the earth. The crude birth rate is the number of births in a year divided by the average population. A more accurate measure of growth is the general fertility rate, which takes into account the age structure and fecundity of the population. The crude birth rate minus the crude death rate gives the rate of natural increase. When this rate reaches a level at which people are just replacing themselves, zero population growth is achieved. In the more highly developed countries of the world, growth has slowed are even reversed in recent years so that without immigration from other areas, population would be declining. The change from high birth and death rates that accompanies in industrialization is called a demographic transition. Many developing nations have already begun this transition. Death rates have fallen, but birth rates remain high. Some demographers believe that as infant mortality drops and economic development progresses so that people in these countries can be sure of secure future, they will complete the transition to a stable population or a high standard living. While larger populations bring many problems, they also may be a valuable resource of energy, intelligence, and enterprise that will make it possible to overcome resource limitation problems. A social just view argues that a more equitable distribution of wealth might reduce both excess population growth and environmental degradation. We have many more options now for controlling fertility than were available

  5. Multiple gingival pregnancy tumors with rapid growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Lian Sun

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Pregnancy gingivitis is an acute form of gingivitis that affects pregnant women, with a prevalence of 30%, possibly ranging up to 100%. Sometimes, pregnancy gingivitis shows a tendency toward a localized hyperplasia called gingival pyogenic granuloma. Pregnancy tumor is a benign gingival hyperplasia with the gingiva as the most commonly involved site, but rarely it involves almost the entire gingiva. A 22-year-old woman was referred to our clinic with a chief complaint of gingival swelling that had lasted for 2 days. The lesions progressed rapidly and extensively, and almost all the gingiva was involved a week later. Generalized erythema, edema, hyperplasia, a hemorrhagic tendency, and several typical hemangiomatous masses were noted. Pregnancy was denied by the patient at the first and second visits, but was confirmed 2 weeks after the primary visit. The patient was given oral hygiene instructions. She recovered well, and the mass gradually regressed and had disappeared completely at the end of 12 weeks of pregnancy, without recurrence. The gingival lesions were finally diagnosed as multiple gingival pregnancy tumors. The patient delivered a healthy infant. An extensive and rapid growth of gingival pregnancy tumors during the early first month of pregnancy is a rare occurrence that is not familiar to dentists, gynecologists, and obstetricians. Those practitioners engaged in oral medicine and periodontology, primary care obstetrics, and gynecology should be aware of such gingival lesions to avoid misdiagnosis and overtreatment.

  6. Population growth and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Short, R.V.

    2009-01-01

    When I was born in 1930, the human population of the world was a mere 2 billion. Today, it has already reached 6.8 billion, and is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050. That is unsustainable. It is slowly beginning to dawn on us that Global Warming is the result of increasing human CO2 emissions, and the more people there are in the world, the worse it will become. Ultimately, it is the sky that will prove to be the limit to our numbers. The developed countries of the world are the most affluent, and also the most effluent, so we must lead by example and contain our own population growth and per capita emissions. We also have a big debt to repay to former colonial territories in Africa, Asia and South America, who desperately need our help to contain their excessive rates of population growth. Belgian and Dutch obstetricians and gynaecologists can play a critical role in this endeavour. After all, we already have a pill that will stop global warming – the oral contraceptive pill. PMID:25478068

  7. The communalisation of population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, M

    1993-02-01

    It is politically dangerous to attribute birth rates to religion. Some propaganda proposes the following myths: that Hindus have only 1 wife and Muslims many; that Islam forbids family planning and Hinduism does not; that Muslims have a higher birth rate; and that there will be more Muslims in India soon. Statistical evidence is supplied to refute these claims. In fact, the rate of polygynous marriage is 5.80% among Hindus and 5.73% among Muslims, which means Muslims have a lower incidence. Islam "fatwas" allow temporary methods of contraception, but forbids abortions and sterilizations. Contraceptive use in Muslim countries such as Turkey, Egypt, and Indonesia is generally high. Fertility when cross-classified by religion and urban and rural residence or by monthly expenditures per capita shows that religion is not the significant variable. Socioeconomic factors do affect fertility, but there is a mix of socioeconomic groups among both Hindus and Muslims. Indian population growth projections indicate that Hindus will outnumber Muslims. Fertility decline has been significant in both urban and rural Muslim communities. A comparison of the Malabar region of Kerala and Uttar Pradesh shows Malabar with a 40% Muslim population and a lower birth rate than Uttar Pradesh with a 15% Muslim population. The conclusion is that the evidence does not support the myths; religion is not a primary determining factor.

  8. The population factor in economic growth theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meilink, H.A.

    1974-01-01

    Reviews briefly the role of population growth in economic growth theory and makes a few critical remarks on the applied methodology and the underlying assumptions. Emphasis is laid on the possible relationships between population and economic growth in the developing countries, but also Malthus'

  9. Rapid adaptive evolution in novel environments acts as an architect of population range expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szűcs, M; Vahsen, M L; Melbourne, B A; Hoover, C; Weiss-Lehman, C; Hufbauer, R A

    2017-12-19

    Colonization and expansion into novel landscapes determine the distribution and abundance of species in our rapidly changing ecosystems worldwide. Colonization events are crucibles for rapid evolution, but it is not known whether evolutionary changes arise mainly after successful colonization has occurred, or if evolution plays an immediate role, governing the growth and expansion speed of colonizing populations. There is evidence that spatial evolutionary processes can speed range expansion within a few generations because dispersal tendencies may evolve upwards at range edges. Additionally, rapid adaptation to a novel environment can increase population growth rates, which also promotes spread. However, the role of adaptive evolution and the relative contributions of spatial evolution and adaptation to expansion are unclear. Using a model system, red flour beetles (Tribolium castaneum), we either allowed or constrained evolution of populations colonizing a novel environment and measured population growth and spread. At the end of the experiment we assessed the fitness and dispersal tendency of individuals originating either from the core or edge of evolving populations or from nonevolving populations in a common garden. Within six generations, evolving populations grew three times larger and spread 46% faster than populations in which evolution was constrained. Increased size and expansion speed were strongly driven by adaptation, whereas spatial evolutionary processes acting on edge subpopulations contributed less. This experimental evidence demonstrates that rapid evolution drives both population growth and expansion speed and is thus crucial to consider for managing biological invasions and successfully introducing or reintroducing species for management and conservation.

  10. Human population growth and the demographic transition

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    John Bongaarts

    2009-01-01

    .... Projections for the next half century expect a highly divergent world, with stagnation or potential decline in parts of the developed world and continued rapid growth in the least developed regions...

  11. Hispanic Population Growth and Rural Income Inequality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrado, Emilio A.; Kandel, William A.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the relationship between Hispanic population growth and changes in U.S. rural income inequality from 1990 through 2000. Applying comparative approaches used for urban areas we disentangle Hispanic population growth's contribution to inequality by comparing and statistically modeling changes in the family income Gini coefficient across…

  12. 14 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POPULATION GROWTH AND ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    century when Thomas Malthus' study alerted the world on the relationship between population growth and the limitations of natural resources to sustain such growth, fears have lingered about the plausibility and consequences of population exceeding the capability of the natural resources or what is popularly referred to as ...

  13. Organisational Factors of Rapid Growth of Slovenian Dynamic Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pšeničny Viljem

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The authors provide key findings on the internal and external environmental factors of growth that affect the rapid growth of dynamic enterprises in relation to individual key organisational factors or functions. The key organisational relationships in a growing enterprise are upgraded with previous research findings and identified key factors of rapid growth through qualitative and quantitative analysis based on the analysis of 4,511 dynamic Slovenian enterprises exhibiting growth potential. More than 250 descriptive attributes of a sample of firms from 2011 were also used for further qualitative analysis and verification of key growth factors. On the basis of the sample (the study was conducted with 131 Slovenian dynamic enterprises, the authors verify whether these factors are the same as the factors that were studied in previous researches. They also provide empirical findings on rapid growth factors in relation to individual organisational functions: administration - management - implementation (entrepreneur - manager - employees. Through factor analysis they look for the correlation strength between individual variables (attributes that best describe each factor of rapid growth and that relate to the aforementioned organisational functions in dynamic enterprises. The research findings on rapid growth factors offer companies the opportunity to consider these factors during the planning and implementation phases of their business, to choose appropriate instruments for the transition from a small fast growing firm to a professionally managed growing company, to stimulate growth and to choose an appropriate growth strategy and organisational factors in order to remain, or become, dynamic enterprises that can further contribute to the preservation, growth and development of the Slovenian economy

  14. The role of population on economic growth and development: evidence from developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Atanda, Akinwande A.; Aminu, Salaudeen B.; Alimi, Olorunfemi Y.

    2012-01-01

    The precise relationship between population growth and per capita income has been inconclusive in the literature and the nexus has been found not clearly explain the determinants of rapid population growth in developing countries that lacks fertility control and management framework. This forms the rationale for this study to access the trend of factors that influence rapid population growth in developing countries between 1980 and 2010. This paper examined the comparative trend review of pop...

  15. Rapid growth reduces cold resistance: evidence from latitudinal variation in growth rate, cold resistance and stress proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoks, Robby; De Block, Marjan

    2011-02-24

    Physiological costs of rapid growth may contribute to the observation that organisms typically grow at submaximal rates. Although, it has been hypothesized that faster growing individuals would do worse in dealing with suboptimal temperatures, this type of cost has never been explored empirically. Furthermore, the mechanistic basis of the physiological costs of rapid growth is largely unexplored. Larvae of the damselfly Ischnura elegans from two univoltine northern and two multivoltine southern populations were reared at three temperatures and after emergence given a cold shock. Cold resistance, measured by chill coma recovery times in the adult stage, was lower in the southern populations. The faster larval growth rates in the southern populations contributed to this latitudinal pattern in cold resistance. In accordance with their assumed role in cold resistance, Hsp70 levels were lower in the southern populations, and faster growing larvae had lower Hsp70 levels. Yet, individual variation in Hsp70 levels did not explain variation in cold resistance. WE PROVIDE EVIDENCE FOR A NOVEL COST OF RAPID GROWTH: reduced cold resistance. Our results indicate that the reduced cold resistance in southern populations of animals that change voltinism along the latitudinal gradient may not entirely be explained by thermal selection per se but also by the costs of time constraint-induced higher growth rates. This also illustrates that stressors imposed in the larval stage may carry over and shape fitness in the adult stage and highlights the importance of physiological costs in the evolution of life-histories at macro-scales.

  16. The End of World Population Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Lutz, W.; W.C. Sanderson; S. Scherbov

    2001-01-01

    There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this growth is likely to come to an end in the foreseeable future. Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent...

  17. Brazilian population 1982: growth, migration, race, religion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, T G

    1982-01-01

    The rate of population increase dropped to less than 2.5% annually in Brazil between 1970-80, but 26 million more people were born. The 1980 census also provides details of continuing urbanization, settlement of the farthest frontiers, and changes in racial composition. The direct cause of the drop in population increase was a drop of about 15% in the fertility rate that had been projected for the decade. Brazil's rate of population increase declined impressively despite the fact that the country continued to make progress in reducing mortality. The greatest improvement occurred between 1930-60. The mortality rate averaged 20.9/1000 between 1940-50 but dropped to 14.2/1000 between 1950-60. Even though the crude death rate dropped 28% in the 1970-80 decade and each child born in 1980 can expect to live 6.5 years longer than a child born in 1970, the life expectancy of 62 years compares with Colombia and El Salvador, which are much poorer countries. In Brazil as a whole the crude birthrate in the 15-19 age group was 66/1000 in 1980. It was 46/1000 in 1970, an increase of nearly 50%. In urban areas the rate increased from 37/1000 to 57/1000 and in the countryside from 59/1000 to 89/1000. The crude birthrate went down slightly in Brazil from 1970-80 from 34 to 32/1000. The total fertility rate (TFR) dropped in the same period from 4.9ll to 3.983. The question that arises is whether fertility rates will increase, with women in the youngest age group continuing to have more children during their reproductive years. Internal migration plays a major role in the distribution of the population. Between 1970-80 there were changes in the migration pattern from the previous decade. All the rapidly growing areas, defined as the frontier, have high fertility rates, but much of their growth results from migration. Between 1960-70 and 1970-80 the most rapidly growing areas of the frontier changed. Few are aware of the extent to which Brazil is becoming a country of large cities

  18. Population growth. Its magnitude and implications for development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birdsall, N

    1984-09-01

    A summary of the 1984 World Development Report is provided. The 3 major points stressed in the report were: 1) rapid population growth adversely affects development, 2) governments must adopt policies to reduce fertility, and 3) policies adopted by many countries have effectively reduced fertility. World population growth began accelerating at 0.5%/year in the 18th century, and by 1950 the annual acceleration rate was 2%. Most of the increase in population size is occurring in less developed countries, and this increase is due in part to the recent decline in mortality experienced by these countries. Of the 80 million individuals who will be added to the world's population in 1984, 70 million will be in the developing countries. Since 1965 the population growth rate for developing countries as a group declined from 2.4% to 2%. However, because of the high proportion of younger aged individuals in developing countries, the decline in fertility is expected to level off. According to World Bank population projections, the world population will stabilize at around 11 billion in 2150. During the interium, the population of developing countries will increase from its present level of 3.6 billion to 8.4 billion, and the population of developed countries will increase from 1.2 billion to 1.4 billion. These projections are probably overly optimistic. The adverse impact on development of rapid population growth is due to several factors. 1st, resources which could be used for investment must instead be used to fulfill the consumption needs of an increased number of people. 2nd, increases in the labor force must be absorbed by the agricultural sector, and this reduces agricultural productivity. 3rd, rapid population growth increases management problems. The adaption of policies by governments to reduce fertility is a necessary step in halting population growth. For poor families, children provide economic security. Therefore, governments must act to improve the economic

  19. Rapid population increase in an introduced muskox population, West Greenland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carsten Riis Olesen

    1993-10-01

    Full Text Available In 1962 and 1965, 27 (13 and 14 muskox yearlings were translocated from East Greenland (71°N to the Angujaartorfiup Nunaa range in West Greenland (67°N. Angujaartorfiup Nunaa is a 6600 km2 icefree, continental area where caribou are indigenous. The climate is strictly continental with a minimum of precipitation but with abundant vegetation. Aerial surveys in 1990 documented that the muskox population has increased to 2600 heads despite quota-based harvesting since 1988. The annual quota was 200, 300 and 400 for 1988, 1989 and 1990, respectively. Distribution of muskoxen shows a significant preference for low altitude habitats southeast of Kangerlussuaq Airport and around Arnangarnup Qoorua (Paradise valley. Annual population increment averages 30% and the calf crop is around 24% of the population. Yearling recruitment in the population reveals that calf mortality during winter is very limited. About half of the 1-year-old females are served and they eventually give birth to their first calf when they turn 2 years old. With half of the 2-year-old females reproducing, the calf/cow ration ranges between 0.9 and 1.0.

  20. Rapid cycling genomic selection in a multiparental tropical maize population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genomic selection (GS) increases genetic gain by reducing the length of the selection cycle, as has been exemplified in maize using rapid cycling recombination of biparental populations. However, no results of GS applied to maize multi-parental populations have been reported so far. This study is th...

  1. Metropolitan migration and population growth in selected developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to estimate the components of metropolitan population growth in selected developing countries during 1960-1970 period. The study examines population growth in 26 cities: 5 are in Africa, 8 in Asia, and 13 in Latin America, using data from national census publications. These cities in general are the political capitals of their countries, but some additional large cities were selected in Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa. All cities, at the beginning of the 1960-1970 decade had over 500,000 population; Accra, the only exception, reached this population level during the 1960s. Some cities had over 4 million residents in 1970. Net migration contributed about 37% to total metropolitan population growth; the remainder of the growth is attributable to natural increase. Migration has a much stronger impact on metropolitan growth than suggested by the above figure: 1) Several metropolitan areas, for various reasons, are unlikely to receive many migrants; without those cities, the share of metropolitan growth from net migration is 44%. 2) Estimates of the natural increase of migrants after their arrival in the metropolitan areas, when added to migration itself, changes the total contribution of migration to 49% in some metropolitan areas. 3) Even where net migration contributes a smaller proportion to metropolitan growth than natural increase, the rates of net migration are generally high and should be viewed in the context of rapid metropolitan population growth from natural increase alone. Finally, the paper also compares the components of metropolitan growth with the components of growth in the remaining urban areas. The results show that the metropolitan areas, in general, grow faster than the remaining urban areas, and that this more rapid growth is mostly due to a higher rate of net migration. Given the significance of migration for metropolitan growth, further investigations of the effects of these migration streams, particularly with

  2. Environmental degradation, energy consumption, population growth ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Environmental degradation, energy consumption, population growth and economic growth: Does Environmental Kuznets curve matter for Nigeria? ... This means Nigeria has reached the required level of per capita real GDP to get an inverted U-shaped EKC. The main policy prescriptions among others is that Nigeria ...

  3. The end of world population growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, W; Sanderson, W; Scherbov, S

    2001-01-01

    There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this growth is likely to come to an end in the foreseeable future. Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting(1), here we show that there

  4. Social Disruption and Rapid Community Growth: An Explication of the "Boom-Town" Hypotheses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, James G.; And Others

    Recent case studies of social effects of rapid community growth associated with energy development in the western states have relied primarily on qualitative data with limited use of agency records, population surveys, and other secondary sources. While providing the first essential step in the orderly development of a scientific approach to…

  5. On the Nonequilibrium Interface Kinetics of Rapid Coupled Eutectic Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, H.; Chen, Y. Z.; Shan, G. B.; Zhang, Z. R.; Liu, F.

    2017-08-01

    Nonequilibrium interface kinetics (NEIK) is expected to play an important role in coupled growth of eutectic alloys, when solidification velocity is high and intermetallic compound or topologically complex phases form in the crystallized product. In order to quantitatively evaluate the effect of NEIK on the rapid coupled eutectic growth, in this work, two nonequilibrium interface kinetic effects, i.e., atom attachment and solute trapping at the solid-liquid interface, were incorporated into the analyses of the coupled eutectic growth under the rapid solidification condition. First, a coupled growth model incorporating the preceding two nonequilibrium kinetic effects was derived. On this basis, an expression of kinetic undercooling (∆ T k), which is used to characterize the NEIK, was defined. The calculations based on the as-derived couple growth model show good agreement with the reported experimental results achieved in rapidly solidified eutectic Al-Sm alloys consisting of a solid solution phase ( α-Al) and an intermetallic compound phase (Al11Sm3). In terms of the definition of ∆ T k defined in this work, the role of NEIK in the coupled growth of the Al-Sm eutectic system was analyzed. The results show that with increasing the coupled growth velocity, ∆ T k increases continuously, and its ratio to the total undercooling reaches 0.32 at the maximum growth velocity for coupled eutectic growth. Parametric analyses on two key alloy parameters that influence ∆ T k, i.e., interface kinetic parameter ( μ i ) and solute distribution coefficient ( k e ), indicate that both μ i and k e influence the NEIK significantly and the decrease of either these two parameters enhances the NEIK effect.

  6. Population growth and development: an unexplained boom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chesnais, J C

    1987-01-01

    The usual paradign of classical theory are unable to expalin an historical change as striking as the economic expansion of the poor countries. This failure is the result of 2 flaws in the initial approach. 1st, the "population question" is normally described as a race between 2 rates. Not only do population growth and economic development have common structural origins, but they are also both subject to dynamic and cumulative interaction. Consequently, a policy of improving cultural techniques, of building canals, or providing irrigation remove obstacles not only income growth but also to improved health conditions (resulting in further population growth). In turn, an improvement in health conditions is a powerful enough force to eliminate some traditional restraints on technological change and innovation. 2nd, the excessive attention paid to high fertility has led to neglect of the key role of declining mortality in today's population dynamics. A change in perspective has, from the economic standpoint, a decisive influence, for contrary to what was long accepted, the decline in mortality is far from an exogenous factor in economic development. On the contrary, a reduction in mortality is a precondition for long-term savings and private investment (because it extends the time frame of economic units). In this sense, income growth and population growth are linked a priori; they are 2 facets of the same phenomenon: development. Demographic growth and economic development are capable of reinforcing each other.

  7. Put an end to population growth and improve productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, U W

    1999-01-01

    The representative from Korea at the 15th Asian Parliamentarians' Meeting discussed issues concerning the environment, food security, and population growth. The implementation of population control programs is an issue that warrants continuous attention and efforts. The imbalance in the sexes, the decrease in the labor force, the rapid increase in number of senior citizens, insufficient food, unbalanced population distribution due to urbanization, and pollution are some of the new threats humanity faces. Like other developing countries, Korea put environmental protection on the back burner and its economic development took precedence over environmental concerns. As a result, Korea fostered industries that consume massive amounts of energy and resources, polluting the environment. Not only environmental hazards, but also social ills such as population concentration in urban areas, security problems, deteriorating living conditions, and crimes, developed due to industrialization and urbanization. The main priority should be the revival of the earth and the study of the effects of population growth on the environment. The root causes of environmental destruction consist of explosive population growth, industrial pollution, and development; the best way to restrain these destructive forces is to put an end to population growth. To improve food security, humanity needs to make specific action plans to implement the Hague Declaration urging the establishment of the World Food Bank.

  8. Population growth is a variable open to change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potts, M.

    2016-12-01

    The absolute number of people and the rate of population growth have an impact on climate mitigation, adaptation and possible conflict. Half the pregnancies in the US are unintended. Robust quantitative evidence from California demonstrates that improving access to family planning is the single most cost-effective way of mitigating our carbon footprint. Globally, there are 80 million unintended pregnancies annually. Many non-evidence barriers deprive women of the information and means required to separate sex from childbearing. Between 1960 and 1990, meeting the need for family planning led to a rapid fall in family size in much of Asia. Since 1990, funding for family planning has collapsed and fertility decline has stalled. The UN projects that by 2100 global population will increase by 3.8 billion (equal to world population in 1975). 80% of this growth will be in Africa. Studies project that climate change will undermine crop yields in parts of Africa, especially the Sahel. A high ratio of young males to the rest of the population is a risk factor in conflict. Today, only 1% of overseas assistance is allocated to family planning. Based on analysis of the past, doubling that investment would accelerate fertility decline, facilitating climate mitigation and adaptation, and possibly reducing conflict. Population and family planning were pushed off the international agenda by unacceptably and tragic episodes of coercion in China and India. However, there is compelling data that when voluntary family planning is widely available then family size can fall rapidly, as occurred in the Islamic Republic of Iran, where fertility fell more rapidly than in any other country in history. Family planning is listening to what women want not telling people want to do. Population growth is a variable open to change in a human rights framework. Population and family planning are variables relevant to the scientific agenda of the AGU.

  9. Economic Growth of a Rapidly Developing Economy: Theoretical Formulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg Sergeyevich Sukharev

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The subject matter of the article is the description of economic growth. Modern economy is characterized by a high rate of changes. These changes are the limiting parameters of modern development, which requires a modification of the basic models of growth, the substantiation of the expediency and necessity of a rapid development strategy. In a simple mathematical form, the statement of the problem of economic growth in the “green economy” is examined, in which the costs of environmental measures are not considered a priori as hampering economic development (as it is common for a number of modern neoclassical and neo-Keynesian growth models. The methodological basis of the article are the econometric approach and modelling method. The article has a theoretical character. The main hypothesis supposes that the rapid development strategy cannot make an adequate development strategy under certain conditions, but may be acceptable in other its specific conditions. In this sense, the important growth conditions are the availability of resources, the effectiveness of institutions and the current economic structure, the technological effectiveness of economy, as well as the conditions of technological development (“green economy” and the path of such development. In the article, on the theoretical level of analysis, the substantiation of the adequacy of the rapid development strategy for an economic system is given, whose goal is to achieve the standard of living of the countryleader. Based on the assumptions introduced, the period for which the rapid development strategy might be implemented and the economic lag of the country might be reduced from the country-leader is determined. The conditions that ensure the impact of innovations on the rate of economic development are summarized. The introduced range of dependencies and relations can be useful for the elaboration of the theory of innovation development and for the formation of a new

  10. Rapid growth reduces cold resistance: evidence from latitudinal variation in growth rate, cold resistance and stress proteins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robby Stoks

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Physiological costs of rapid growth may contribute to the observation that organisms typically grow at submaximal rates. Although, it has been hypothesized that faster growing individuals would do worse in dealing with suboptimal temperatures, this type of cost has never been explored empirically. Furthermore, the mechanistic basis of the physiological costs of rapid growth is largely unexplored. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDING: Larvae of the damselfly Ischnura elegans from two univoltine northern and two multivoltine southern populations were reared at three temperatures and after emergence given a cold shock. Cold resistance, measured by chill coma recovery times in the adult stage, was lower in the southern populations. The faster larval growth rates in the southern populations contributed to this latitudinal pattern in cold resistance. In accordance with their assumed role in cold resistance, Hsp70 levels were lower in the southern populations, and faster growing larvae had lower Hsp70 levels. Yet, individual variation in Hsp70 levels did not explain variation in cold resistance. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: WE PROVIDE EVIDENCE FOR A NOVEL COST OF RAPID GROWTH: reduced cold resistance. Our results indicate that the reduced cold resistance in southern populations of animals that change voltinism along the latitudinal gradient may not entirely be explained by thermal selection per se but also by the costs of time constraint-induced higher growth rates. This also illustrates that stressors imposed in the larval stage may carry over and shape fitness in the adult stage and highlights the importance of physiological costs in the evolution of life-histories at macro-scales.

  11. Capital dependent population growth induces cycles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yueksel, Mustafa Kerem, E-mail: mkerem@bilkent.edu.tr [Bilkent University, Department of Economics, Bilkent, 06800 Ankara (Turkey)

    2011-09-15

    Highlights: > We examine the existence of cycles in Solow-Kalecki type economic growth models. > Cobb-Douglas type production functions and time delay are not sufficient for the economy to behave cyclic. > When capital dependent population dynamics are incorporated, the model induces Hopf bifurcation. - Abstract: Cobb-Douglas type production functions and time-delay are not sufficient for the economy to behave cyclic. However, capital dependent population dynamics can enforce Hopf bifurcation.

  12. INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INDUSTRIALIZATION WITH NEGATIVE POPULATION GROWTH

    OpenAIRE

    Sasaki, Hiroaki

    2015-01-01

    This paper builds a small-open-economy, non-scale-growth model with negative population growth and investigates the relationship between trade patterns and per capita consumption growth. Under free trade, if the population growth rate is negative and its absolute value is small, the home country becomes an agricultural country. Then, the long-run growth rate of per capita consumption is positive and depends on the world population growth rate. On other hand, if the population growth rate is n...

  13. Regional Rapid Growth in Cities and Urbanization in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thanadorn Phuttharak

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to investigate the driving forces affecting regional rapid growth in Thailand, along with its impact, to understand the dynamics of urbanization and how it affects cities. The study selected UdonThani Province, Thailand, as a case study. This study collected data from academic and semi-academic documents, semi-structured interviews, participatory and non-participatory observations, and group discussion. The informants were residents within municipalities, government, and private officers related to city development, and NGOs. The results found that the driving forces affecting regional rapid growth in UdonThani province include: 1 historic events from World War II to the Cold War; 2 events during the Vietnam War; 3 Capitalist policies; and 4 the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC. The study also found impacts of regional rapid growth in UdonThani province including 1 land use change; 2 economic and societal change; 3 road and traffic problems; and 4 waste disposal problems.

  14. New nonlinear model of population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    T Alkahtani, Badr Saad; Atangana, Abdon; Koca, Ilknur

    2017-01-01

    The model of population growth is revised in this paper. A new model is proposed based on the concept of fractional differentiation that uses the generalized Mittag-Leffler function as kernel of differentiation. The new model includes the choice of sexuality. The existence of unique solution is investigated and numerical solution is provided.

  15. Population growth and food supply in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meerman, J; Cochrane, S H

    1982-09-01

    It is argued in this article that sub-Saharan Africa, given its present institutions and endowments of capital and technology, is already dangerously close to overpopulation. The rapid growth of its population projected for the next decades will greatly increase human misery and depress economic development. Specifically, rapid population growth will have disastrous effects on the region's ability to increase exports and provide people with food. There must be a search for new ways in which these effects could be mitigated. In sub-Saharan Africa fertility either continues to be very high or is increasing, in part due to some decline in traditional practices that reduce fertility, such as prolonged breastfeeding. This situation and the expectation of declining mortality imply that African population growth may increase further. Currently, population in sub-Saharan Africa is about half that of India and a third of China. There are 2 main reasons why reduced fertility in the next few decades is unlikely in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole: Africa has low literacy, high infant and child mortality, and low urbanization; and average African fertility rates may even increase for the next 20 years or so. The question that arises is what are the implications of continuing and rapid population growth for the African food supply. The region's cereal production is largely restricted to 4 grains, i.e., millet, sorghum, maize, and rice. The volume of grain production is less, by weight, than 60% of the production of roots and tubers. There are 2 main differences between the output of these crops in sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world: yields/hectare are lower in Africa than in elsewhere; and yields have generally been decreasing or largely constant in Africa. The low productivity has several causes. Today, population pressure has brought diminishing returns to traditional agriculture in much of the Sahel and the savanna, in parts of East Africa, Southern Africa, and parts

  16. Exile and demographic population growth in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stevanović Radoslav

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The data of the 2002 population census on refugee population are analyzed in this paper with a basic aim to determine the significance (contribution of refugee corpus in demographic development of the Republic of Serbia. By analyzing the data, it has been determined that the refugee corpus does not significantly differ from the domicile population in the basic, above all demographic and other qualitative characteristics. The differences which can be noticed with certain (primarily socio-economic characteristics, due to the proportionally small participation of refugee persons in relation to the total (domicile population, could not significantly influence the total demographic, socio-economic and other characteristics of the population of central Serbia and Vojvodina. The most significant contribution of refugee (classifying the refugee corpus in the country's total population is reflected in the mitigation of the depopulation trend, namely population growth, not only both micro-entities, but also lower administrative-territorial entities (districts depending on the enumerated refugee population in them. However, population projections indicate that by the middle of this century (2050 the positive effects of the basically larger number of inhabitants will be lost caused by the inflow of refugee population.

  17. Keynes on population and economic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toye, J

    1997-01-01

    This article discusses the evolution of Keynes's thinking on population based on an unpublished paper from 1914, "Is the Problem of Population a Pressing and Important One Now?" The paper is reported to have 39 pages, but in fact there are many missing page numbers. Keynes's "Essays in Biography" (1933) follows the basic structure and much of the verbal detail of the first 16 pages of "Population." Chapter 2 of the "Economic Consequences of the Peace" discusses the key ideas of "Population." The passages in "Population" and Chapter 2 were probably the sources of a fierce controversy in 1923-24 between Keynes and W.H. Beveridge over Keynes' neo-Malthusianism. "Population" was the basis for the three themes that were central to Keynes's writing on population. Keynes's framework shifted from a global perspective in "Population" to a progressively narrower focus in the 1930s on England and Wales. Keynes was stronger in his advocacy of birth control in "Population" compared to later writings. Keynes was concerned about the quality of population but disagreed on the methods of achieving this. Keynes argued that 75% of the world was not subject to Malthusian dynamics, and the other 25% had developed technology to relieve population pressure. "Population" sketches out the rudiments of the welfare implications of the great divide between North and South population growth rates. Keynes assumes that overpopulation in the South will be compensated for by the international market without consideration of income deficits. Keynes argues against pronatalism. The 1933 essay shows Keynes shift away from Malthus as population expert to Malthus as political economist. By 1937, Keynes had recanted and was very aware of the uncertainty of the economy. The author believes that it is unfortunate that this 1913-14 manuscript remains unknown and, if known, misunderstood.

  18. Design issues for population growth models

    Science.gov (United States)

    López Fidalgo, J.; Ortiz Rodríguez, I.M.

    2010-01-01

    We briefly review and discuss design issues for population growth and decline models. We then use a flexible growth and decline model as an illustrative example and apply optimal design theory to find optimal sampling times for estimating model parameters, specific parameters and interesting functions of the model parameters for the model with two real applications. Robustness properties of the optimal designs are investigated when nominal values or the model is mis-specified, and also under a different optimality criterion. To facilitate use of optimal design ideas in practice, we also introduce a website for generating a variety of optimal designs for popular models from different disciplines. PMID:21647244

  19. The statistics of genetic diversity in rapidly adapting populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desai, Michael

    2013-03-01

    Evolutionary adaptation is driven by the accumulation of beneficial mutations, but the sequence-level dynamics of this process are poorly understood. The traditional view is that adaptation is dominated by rare beneficial ``driver'' mutations that occur sporadically and then rapidly increase in frequency until they fix (a ``selective sweep''). Yet in microbial populations, multiple beneficial mutations are often present simultaneously. Selection cannot act on each mutation independently, but only on linked combinations. This means that the fate of any mutation depends on a complex interplay between its own fitness effect, the genomic background in which it arises, and the rest of the sequence variation in the population. The balance between these factors determines which mutations fix, the patterns of sequence diversity within populations, and the degree to which evolution in replicate populations will follow parallel (or divergent) trajectories at the sequence level. Earlier work has uncovered signatures of these effects, but the dynamics of genomic sequence evolution in adapting microbial populations have not yet been directly observed. In this talk, I will describe how full-genome whole-population sequencing can be used to provide a detailed view of these dynamics at high temporal resolution over 1000 generations in 40 adapting Saccharomyces cerevisiaepopulations. This data shows how patterns of sequence evolution are driven by a balance between chance interference and hitchhiking effects, which increase stochastic variation in evolutionary outcomes, and the deterministic action of selection on individual mutations, which favors parallel solutions in replicate populations.

  20. Effects of the Global Population Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Voiculeţ Alina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The demographic factor is not purely natural. It is a social body that has its own structure andis manifested through a series of processes that make up its movement: birth rate, death rate,longevity, migration etc. All these processes depend on the social and economic environment inwhich people live. The growth of the world's population will have multiple effects on theenvironment, the economy and society as a whole.

  1. Polygenic Risk, Rapid Childhood Growth, and the Development of Obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belsky, Daniel W.; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Houts, Renate; Bennett, Gary G.; Biddle, Andrea K.; Blumenthal, James A.; Evans, James P.; Harrington, HonaLee; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Poulton, Richie; Caspi, Avshalom

    2012-01-01

    Objective To test how genomic loci identified in genome-wide association studies influence the development of obesity. Design A 38-year prospective longitudinal study of a representative birth cohort. Setting The Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study, Dunedin, New Zealand. Participants One thousand thirty-seven male and female study members. Main Exposures We assessed genetic risk with a multilocus genetic risk score. The genetic risk score was composed of single-nucleotide polymorphisms identified in genome-wide association studies of obesity-related phenotypes. We assessed family history from parent body mass index data collected when study members were 11 years of age. Main Outcome Measures Body mass index growth curves, developmental phenotypes of obesity, and adult obesity outcomes were defined from anthropometric assessments at birth and at 12 subsequent in-person interviews through 38 years of age. Results Individuals with higher genetic risk scores were more likely to be chronically obese in adulthood. Genetic risk first manifested as rapid growth during early childhood. Genetic risk was unrelated to birth weight. After birth, children at higher genetic risk gained weight more rapidly and reached adiposity rebound earlier and at a higher body mass index. In turn, these developmental phenotypes predicted adult obesity, mediating about half the genetic effect on adult obesity risk. Genetic associations with growth and obesity risk were independent of family history, indicating that the genetic risk score could provide novel information to clinicians. Conclusions Genetic variation linked with obesity risk operates, in part, through accelerating growth in the early childhood years after birth. Etiological research and prevention strategies should target early childhood to address the obesity epidemic. PMID:22665028

  2. Rapid Cycling Genomic Selection in a Multiparental Tropical Maize Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuecai Zhang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Genomic selection (GS increases genetic gain by reducing the length of the selection cycle, as has been exemplified in maize using rapid cycling recombination of biparental populations. However, no results of GS applied to maize multi-parental populations have been reported so far. This study is the first to show realized genetic gains of rapid cycling genomic selection (RCGS for four recombination cycles in a multi-parental tropical maize population. Eighteen elite tropical maize lines were intercrossed twice, and self-pollinated once, to form the cycle 0 (C0 training population. A total of 1000 ear-to-row C0 families was genotyped with 955,690 genotyping-by-sequencing SNP markers; their testcrosses were phenotyped at four optimal locations in Mexico to form the training population. Individuals from families with the best plant types, maturity, and grain yield were selected and intermated to form RCGS cycle 1 (C1. Predictions of the genotyped individuals forming cycle C1 were made, and the best predicted grain yielders were selected as parents of C2; this was repeated for more cycles (C2, C3, and C4, thereby achieving two cycles per year. Multi-environment trials of individuals from populations C0, C1, C2, C3, and C4, together with four benchmark checks were evaluated at two locations in Mexico. Results indicated that realized grain yield from C1 to C4 reached 0.225 ton ha−1 per cycle, which is equivalent to 0.100 ton ha−1 yr−1 over a 4.5-yr breeding period from the initial cross to the last cycle. Compared with the original 18 parents used to form cycle 0 (C0, genetic diversity narrowed only slightly during the last GS cycles (C3 and C4. Results indicate that, in tropical maize multi-parental breeding populations, RCGS can be an effective breeding strategy for simultaneously conserving genetic diversity and achieving high genetic gains in a short period of time.

  3. Computer simulation of rapid crystal growth under microgravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hisada, Yasuhiro; Saito, Osami; Mitachi, Koshi; Nishinaga, Tatau

    We are planning to grow a Ge single crystal under microgravity by the TR-IA rocket in 1992. The furnace temperature should be controlled so as to finish the crystal growth in a quite short time interval (about 6 min). This study deals with the computer simulation of rapid crystal growth in space to find the proper conditions for the experiment. The crystal growth process is influenced by various physical phenomena such as heat conduction, natural and Marangoni convections, phase change, and radiation from the furnace. In this study, a 2D simulation with axial symmetry is carried out, taking into account the radiation field with a specific temperature distribution of the furnace wall. The simulation program consists of four modules. The first module is applied for the calculation of the parabolic partial differential equation by using the control volume method. The second one evaluates implicitly the phase change by the enthalpy method. The third one is for computing the heat flux from surface by radiation. The last one is for calculating with the Monte Carlo method the view factors which are necessary to obtain the heat flux.

  4. Rapid declines of large mammal populations after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bragina, Eugenia V; Ives, A R; Pidgeon, A M; Kuemmerle, T; Baskin, L M; Gubar, Y P; Piquer-Rodríguez, M; Keuler, N S; Petrosyan, V G; Radeloff, V C

    2015-06-01

    Anecdotal evidence suggests that socioeconomic shocks strongly affect wildlife populations, but quantitative evidence is sparse. The collapse of socialism in Russia in 1991 caused a major socioeconomic shock, including a sharp increase in poverty. We analyzed population trends of 8 large mammals in Russia from 1981 to 2010 (i.e., before and after the collapse). We hypothesized that the collapse would first cause population declines, primarily due to overexploitation, and then population increases due to adaptation of wildlife to new environments following the collapse. The long-term Database of the Russian Federal Agency of Game Mammal Monitoring, consisting of up to 50,000 transects that are monitored annually, provided an exceptional data set for investigating these population trends. Three species showed strong declines in population growth rates in the decade following the collapse, while grey wolf (Canis lupus) increased by more than 150%. After 2000 some trends reversed. For example, roe deer (Capreolus spp.) abundance in 2010 was the highest of any period in our study. Likely reasons for the population declines in the 1990s include poaching and the erosion of wildlife protection enforcement. The rapid increase of the grey wolf populations is likely due to the cessation of governmental population control. In general, the widespread declines in wildlife populations after the collapse of the Soviet Union highlight the magnitude of the effects that socioeconomic shocks can have on wildlife populations and the possible need for special conservation efforts during such times. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  5. Cryptic population dynamics: rapid evolution masks trophic interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshida, Takehito; Ellner, Stephen P; Jones, Laura E; Bohannan, Brendan J M; Lenski, Richard E; Hairston, Nelson G

    2007-09-01

    Trophic relationships, such as those between predator and prey or between pathogen and host, are key interactions linking species in ecological food webs. The structure of these links and their strengths have major consequences for the dynamics and stability of food webs. The existence and strength of particular trophic links has often been assessed using observational data on changes in species abundance through time. Here we show that very strong links can be completely missed by these kinds of analyses when changes in population abundance are accompanied by contemporaneous rapid evolution in the prey or host species. Experimental observations, in rotifer-alga and phage-bacteria chemostats, show that the predator or pathogen can exhibit large-amplitude cycles while the abundance of the prey or host remains essentially constant. We know that the species are tightly linked in these experimental microcosms, but without this knowledge, we would infer from observed patterns in abundance that the species are weakly or not at all linked. Mathematical modeling shows that this kind of cryptic dynamics occurs when there is rapid prey or host evolution for traits conferring defense against attack, and the cost of defense (in terms of tradeoffs with other fitness components) is low. Several predictions of the theory that we developed to explain the rotifer-alga experiments are confirmed in the phage-bacteria experiments, where bacterial evolution could be tracked. Modeling suggests that rapid evolution may also confound experimental approaches to measuring interaction strength, but it identifies certain experimental designs as being more robust against potential confounding by rapid evolution.

  6. Cryptic population dynamics: rapid evolution masks trophic interactions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takehito Yoshida

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Trophic relationships, such as those between predator and prey or between pathogen and host, are key interactions linking species in ecological food webs. The structure of these links and their strengths have major consequences for the dynamics and stability of food webs. The existence and strength of particular trophic links has often been assessed using observational data on changes in species abundance through time. Here we show that very strong links can be completely missed by these kinds of analyses when changes in population abundance are accompanied by contemporaneous rapid evolution in the prey or host species. Experimental observations, in rotifer-alga and phage-bacteria chemostats, show that the predator or pathogen can exhibit large-amplitude cycles while the abundance of the prey or host remains essentially constant. We know that the species are tightly linked in these experimental microcosms, but without this knowledge, we would infer from observed patterns in abundance that the species are weakly or not at all linked. Mathematical modeling shows that this kind of cryptic dynamics occurs when there is rapid prey or host evolution for traits conferring defense against attack, and the cost of defense (in terms of tradeoffs with other fitness components is low. Several predictions of the theory that we developed to explain the rotifer-alga experiments are confirmed in the phage-bacteria experiments, where bacterial evolution could be tracked. Modeling suggests that rapid evolution may also confound experimental approaches to measuring interaction strength, but it identifies certain experimental designs as being more robust against potential confounding by rapid evolution.

  7. China's rapidly aging population creates policy challenges in shaping a viable long-term care system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Zhanlian; Liu, Chang; Guan, Xinping; Mor, Vincent

    2012-12-01

    In China, formal long-term care services for the large aging population have increased to meet escalating demands as demographic shifts and socioeconomic changes have eroded traditional elder care. We analyze China's evolving long-term care landscape and trace major government policies and private-sector initiatives shaping it. Although home and community-based services remain spotty, institutional care is booming with little regulatory oversight. Chinese policy makers face mounting challenges overseeing the rapidly growing residential care sector, given the tension arising from policy inducements to further institutional growth, a weak regulatory framework, and the lack of enforcement capacity. We recommend addressing the following pressing policy issues: building a balanced system of services and avoiding an "institutional bias" that promotes rapid growth of elder care institutions over home or community-based care; strengthening regulatory oversight and quality assurance with information systems; and prioritizing education and training initiatives to grow a professionalized long-term care workforce.

  8. Population coding in area V4 during rapid shape detections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiner, Katherine F.

    2015-01-01

    While previous studies have suggested that neuronal correlations are common in visual cortex over a range of timescales, the effect of correlations on rapid visually based decisions has received little attention. We trained Macaca mulatta to saccade to a peripherally presented shape embedded in dynamic noise as soon as the shape appeared. While the monkeys performed the task, we recorded from neuronal populations (5–29 cells) using a microelectrode array implanted in area V4, a visual area thought to be involved in form perception. While modest correlations were present between cells during visual stimulation, their magnitude did not change significantly subsequent to the appearance of a shape. We quantified the reliability and temporal precision with which neuronal populations signaled the appearance of the shape and predicted the animals' choices using mutual information analyses. To study the impact of correlations, we shuffled the activity from each cell across observations while retaining stimulus-dependent modulations in firing rate. We found that removing correlations by shuffling across trials minimally affected the reliability or timing with which pairs, or larger groups of cells, signaled the presence of a shape. To assess the downstream impact of correlations, we also studied how shuffling affected the ability of V4 populations to predict behavioral choices. Surprisingly, shuffling created a modest increase in the accuracy of such predictions, suggesting that the reliability of downstream neurons is slightly compromised by activity correlations. Our findings are consistent with neuronal correlations having a minimal effect on the reliability and timing of rapid perceptual decisions. PMID:25787961

  9. Rapid black hole growth under anisotropic radiation feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugimura, Kazuyuki; Hosokawa, Takashi; Yajima, Hidenobu; Omukai, Kazuyuki

    2017-07-01

    Discovery of high-redshift (z > 6) supermassive black holes (BHs) may indicate that the rapid (or super-Eddington) gas accretion has aided their quick growth. Here, we study such rapid accretion of the primordial gas on to intermediate-mass (102-105 M⊙) BHs under anisotropic radiation feedback. We perform two-dimensional radiation hydrodynamics simulations that solve the flow structure across the Bondi radius, from far outside of the Bondi radius down to a central part that is larger than a circum-BH accretion disc. The radiation from the unresolved circum-BH disc is analytically modelled considering self-shadowing effect. We show that the flow settles into a steady state, where the flow structure consists of two distinct parts: (1) bipolar ionized outflowing regions, where the gas is pushed outward by thermal gas pressure and super-Eddington radiation pressure, and (2) an equatorial neutral inflowing region, where the gas falls towards the central BH without affected by radiation feedback. The resulting accretion rate is much higher than that in the case of isotropic radiation, far exceeding the Eddington-limited rate to reach a value slightly lower than the Bondi one. The opening angle of the equatorial inflowing region is determined by the luminosity and directional dependence of the central radiation. We find that photoevaporation from its surfaces set the critical opening angle of about 10° below which the accretion to the BH is quenched. We suggest that the shadowing effect allows even stellar-remnant BHs to grow rapidly enough to become high-redshift supermassive BHs.

  10. Crowding out the Future: World Population Growth, U.S. Immigration, and Pressures on Natural Resources [and] Teacher's Guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Robert W.; Mehlman, Ira H.

    Using text, graphics, satellite imagery, and data this publication with accompanying teacher's guide seeks to illustrate three main points concerning world population: (1) rapid world population growth is placing untenable immigration pressures on the United States; (2) immigration and U.S. population growth patterns generally are regionally…

  11. World Population: Fundamentals of Growth. Student Chartbook. Third Edition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Mary Mederios

    This booklet is designed for K-12 students and educators to learn about world population growth factors. Data are shown through charts and graphs with brief explanations. The booklet contains: (1) "World Population Growth and Regional Distribution through History"; (2) "Population Growth through Natural Increase"; (3) "Effect of Migration on…

  12. Rapid growth of hydroxyapatite nanoparticles using ultrasonic irradiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouhani, Parvaneh; Taghavinia, Nima; Rouhani, Shohre

    2010-06-01

    A rapid, environmental friendly and low-cost method to prepare hydroxyapatite nanoparticles is proposed. In this method, hydroxyapatite is produced in a sonicated pseudo-body solution. The sonication time was found effective in the formation of the crystalline phase of nanoparticles. In our experimental condition, 15 min sonication resulted in the most pure hydroxyapatite phase. Also it was shown that growth temperature is a crucial factor and hydroxyapatite crystallizes only at 37 degrees C. The particles formed by sonication were generally smaller and more spherical than those obtained without sonication. Sonication increased the hydroxyapatite crystal growth rate up to 5.5 times compared to non-sonication condition. The comparison between the specific surface area of hydroxyapatite nanoparticles obtained by sonication and without sonication demonstrated that sonication increased the specific surface area from 63 m(2)/g to 107 m(2)/g and decreased the size of nanoparticles from 30 nm to 18 nm. Analysis on the pore structure demonstrated that the fractal structures obtained with and without sonication were considerably different. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Population growth and economic development: the case of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coale, A J

    1978-01-01

    A review of events in Mexico since the publication in 1958 of Coale and Hoover's "Population Growth and Economic Development in Low Income Countries," in which they concluded that a low income country with high fertility would achieve better progress if it could reduce its fertility than if it did not do so. India and Mexico were the cases considered. Over the 20 years from 1955-75 the population of Mexico more than doubled, slightly exceeding Coale and Hoover's high projections. During that time Mexico saw substantial economic progress: a 72% increase in the proportion of primary school age children actually attending school; a 26% increase in literacy; an 89% increase in per capita income at constant prices; a 38% increase in the urban population; and a 27% rise in the average duration of life. These figures reveal the error of assuming that rapid population increase in a poor country leads inevitably to malnutrition, impoverishment, and social collapse, but also show that economic development does not automatically lead to a slowing of population growth. If Mexican fertility had fallen beginning in 1955, the population under 15 would have been most effected. The income per equivalent adult consumer might have been higher, the gains in school attendance and literacy might have covered a larger percentage of the population, and declining rather than increasing absolute numbers of persons might have been unaffected by the gains. Creation of employment opportunities for fewer persons entering the labor force would have been easier than for the large number of new entrants who will need work over the next 20 years.

  14. [The decline in population growth, income distribution, and economic recession].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banguero, H

    1983-05-01

    This work uses Keynesian principles and an analysis of the Colombian population in the 1970s to argue that the Colombian policy of slowing population growth, which was adopted with the aim of improving the general welfare of the population, has had shortterm negative effects on effective demand and thus on the level of employment and welfare. These negative effects were caused by the inflexibility of income distribution, which prevented expansion of the internal market, complicated by the stagnant condition of the external sector and the budget deficit. The results of the Colombian case study demonstrate how the deceleration of population growth beginning in the 1960s had a significant impact on the levels of consumption and savings and on the patterns of consumption, leading to low levels of investment and little dynamism. Although the current Colombian economic recession is aggravated by contextual factors such as the world economic recession, the high cost of capital, the industrial recession, and declining food production among others, at the core of the crisis are longer term structural determinants such as the decline in the rate of population growth and the highly unequal distribution of income and wealth, which have contributed to a shrinking of the internal market for some types of goods. Given the unlikelihood of renewed rapid population growth, the Keynesian model suggests that the only alternative for increasing aggregate demand is state intervention through public spending and investment and reorientation of the financial system to achieve a dynamic redistribution of income. Based on these findings and on proposals of other analysts, a stragegy for revitalization is proposed which would imply a gradual income redistribution to allow increased consumption of mass produced goods by the low income groups. Direct consumption subsidies would be avoided because of their inflationary and import-expanding tendencies; rather, incentives and support would be

  15. Population, internal migration, and economic growth: an empirical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreland, R S

    1982-01-01

    The role of population growth in the development process has received increasing attention during the last 15 years, as manifested in the literature in 3 broad categories. In the 1st category, the effects of rapid population growth on the growth of income have been studied with the use of simulation models, which sometimes include endogenous population growth. The 2nd category of the literature is concerned with theoretical and empirical studies of the economic determinants of various demographic rates--most usually fertility. Internal migration and dualism is the 3rd population development category to recieve attention. An attempt is made to synthesize developments in these 3 categories by estimating from a consistent set of data a 2 sector economic demographic model in which the major demographic rates are endogenous. Due to the fact that the interactions between economic and demographic variables are nonlinear and complex, the indirect effects of changes in a particular variable may depend upon the balance of numerical coefficients. For this reason it was felt that the model should be empirically grounded. A brief overview of the model is provided, and the model is compared to some similar existing models. Estimation of the model's 9 behavior equations is discussed, followed by a "base run" simulation of a developing country "stereotype" and a report of a number of policy experiments. The relatively new field of economic determinants of demographic variables was drawn upon in estimating equations to endogenize demographic phenomena that are frequently left exogenous in simulation models. The fertility and labor force participation rate functions are fairly standard, but a step beyong existing literature was taken in the life expectancy and intersectorial migration equations. On the economic side, sectoral savings functions were estimated, and it was found that the marginal propensity to save is lower in agriculture than in nonagriculture. Testing to see the

  16. Implications of population growth for Nigeria's development | Fan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nigeria's population that was 16 million in 1911 is about 140 million today. Attention invariably turns to the implications of this growth to the qualities of life for her inhabitants. The paper notes that high birth rate, low death rate and migration are the sources of the high population growth in Nigeria. The population then ...

  17. 525 Population Growth, Hysteresis and Development Outcomes in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    unemployment in Nigeria and that population growth does not play a role in the persistence of unemployment ... presupposes that the world population has to be controlled so as to avoid global food crisis due to an impending .... they predicted that high population growth causes poor socio-economic development due to ...

  18. Reproduction worship and population growth in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, J

    1992-01-01

    Surveys have found that the overwhelming majority of married women in China desire to have 2 or more children and that male children are generally preferred to female children. This interest in bearing multiple children, and especially sons, reflects traditional needs for male laborers in China's rural families, parents' quests to ensure their personal old-age security, and a broad, deeply-ingrained social sense of the need to perpetuate the family. As China gradually modernizes, however, these first 2 factors, which support multiple births and preference for sons, grow less important. This latter factor of perceived need for male offspring to perpetuate the family, however, remains most powerful in Chinese society. The Chinese worship their ancestors as the source of life. While ancestors are considered gods, fathers are thought to be their subordinates. Ancestor and reproduction worship has been a respected part of traditional Chinese culture for thousands of years since the Shang and Zhou dynasties. These notions may even be found in Confucian doctrine where family perpetuation is held up as the greatest act of filial piety. Accepting these beliefs and teachings, Chinese have tended to marry early, begin bearing children without delay, and strive to ultimately produce many offspring. Family planning and population policy have brought about a reduction in birth rate from 30/1000 in the early 1970s to 20/1000 by the early 1980s. Multibirths and unplanned births, however, have yet to be eliminated. Multibirths in fact accounted for 13.6% of all children born in China in 1988, with 92% born in rural areas where reproduction worship in strongest. 70% of families with multibirths were prompted by the desire to have more sons. An estimated 30 million unplanned births occurred in the 1980s due to parents' interests in perpetuating the family. Under the conditions, policy will have only limited effect in moderating fertility and population growth in China. Accordingly

  19. Growth in an English population from the Industrial Revolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mays, S; Brickley, M; Ives, R

    2008-05-01

    The rapid urbanization of the Industrial Revolution in 18th-19th century England presented new health challenges. Our aim is to investigate using English skeletal remains whether the living conditions for an urban working class group in the Industrial Revolution negatively impacted upon their skeletal growth compared with a population from a rural agrarian parish. The Industrial Revolution skeletal material is from St Martin's Churchyard, Birmingham (SMB), West Midlands. It dates primarily from the first half of the nineteenth century when Birmingham was a major manufacturing center. The rural group is from Wharram Percy (WP), North Yorkshire, and dates from 10th-19th century AD. The methodology involves plotting diaphyseal bone lengths versus dental age for subadults. No overall difference was found between the two populations in bone length-for-age among the 2- to 18-year cohort. However the younger parts of the SMB cohort were smaller than at WP; the opposite was true of the older parts of the cohort. Growth rate, as inferred from crosssectional data, appeared greater at SMB than at WP. The only result consistent with expectations is the larger bone dimensions in young children from WP, but this likely reflects prolonged breastfeeding at WP not differences in urban and rural environments. That the deleterious health effects that we know accompanied the major transition in human society from a rural agrarian to an urban industrialized living environment should be little manifest in skeletal endochondral growth data is discouraging for those who would use such methodology to monitor health in earlier populations. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  20. Age and growth of two populations of West Coast steenbras ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    dependent competition for food, or biochemical genetic variations between the two populations, are possible reasons for the geographic differences found in the growth rates and length-at-age. Slow growth and longevity are characteristics of ...

  1. Migration Policy, African Population Growth and Global Inequality

    OpenAIRE

    Mountford, Andrew; Rapoport, Hillel

    2014-01-01

    According to recent UN projections more than 50 percent of the growth in world population over the next half century will be due to population growth in Africa. Given this, any policy that influences African demography will have a significant impact on the world distribution of income. In this paper we discuss the potential for migration policies to affect fertility and education decisions, and hence, population growth in Africa. We present the results from different scenarios for more or les...

  2. The entwined growth of population and product, 1922-1982.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben-porath, Y

    1997-01-01

    This article "discusses aggregate-level interactions between Jewish immigration and economic growth both in the Jewish sector of Mandatory Palestine and in Israel". The reciprocal effects of population and economic growth are discussed in two sections on population as an engine of growth and was the size of the population dependent on the economy. The author concludes that "causality between population and [gross national] product runs both ways.... For the whole period 1922-1982, it is very clear that immigration pushed the rate of increase of capital stock. For the period from 1954 on, immigration responded to the growth rate of per capita income or consumption." excerpt

  3. Urbanisation and Growth of Slum Population in Jharkhand: A Spatial Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahul Harshwardhan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to examine the relation between the pace of urbanisation and growth of slum population in Jharkhand. This paper also attempts to analyse the trends and patterns of growth of slum population at the district level in Jharkhand. In terms of urbanisation process of India, slums have become an integral part of urban scenario. In India, rapid growth of slums is the result of rural-urban migration of the rural poor to the cities/towns in search of employment in the last two decades. In the absence of any affordable housing, there has been growth of slums in the urban areas of the country. In India, out of a total population of 1.21 billion, 31.30% population resides in the urban areas, but 21.68% (61.8 million of the total urban population live in the slums. Slums are considered as a major problem within the urban areas, particularly in relation to the issues of transportation, population growth, health and safety. The developing states or regions of India are more prone to this problem due to the lack of infrastructural development and heavy urban population pressure. Like other states of India, Jharkhand too is facing the problem of slums. After its separation from Bihar in 2000, the rate of urbanisation and the rate of growth of slums had gone high. The study reveals that in 2001, there were only 11 urban centers consisting of slum population but in 2011, it reached to 31. The slum population registers 23.68% growth while the urban population growth stands at 32%. This paper is primarily based on secondary data collected from different governmental agencies, particularly the Census data of population to analyse the spatial distribution of slum population in the districts of Jharkhand. This study explores the changing urbanisation scenario in Jharkhand and the growth of slums with respect to it.

  4. Human Capital, Population Growth and Economic Development: Beyond Correlations

    OpenAIRE

    Rosenzweig, Mark R.

    1987-01-01

    Empirical evidence on three assertions commonly-made by population policy advocates about the relationships among population growth, human capital formation and economic development is discussed and evaluated in the light of economic-biological models of household behavior and of its relevance to population policy. The three assertions are that (a) population growth and human capital investments jointly reflect and respond to changes in the economic environment, (b) larger families directly i...

  5. [Environmental pollution and population growth in Latin America].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viel, B

    1983-01-01

    helping to combat environmental degradation, but in Latin America, population control has not yet taken hold and antipollution measures are not implemented because of their high cost. High fertility has always characterized Latin American since colonial days, but until the 20th century it was balanced by high mortality. Largely because of the progressive control of disease, the population increased from some 87 million in 1920 to 212 million by 1960, and may arrive at 650 million by 2000. In just 30 years Latin America was able to reduce mortality to under 10/1000, a process requiring 300 years in the developed world. In Latin America mortality reduction was achieved by medical means and not by environmental improvements. Despite the obious problems caused by rapid population growth, most governments in the region persist in supporting pronatalist policies and legislation.

  6. Population growth of three freshwater prawns ( Macrobrachium spp ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Growth parameters of the populations of three freshwater prawns: Macrobrachium vollenhovenii, M. macrobrachion and M. felicinum in the Lower Ogun River were determined. For each population, lengthfrequency data for twenty-four month period (January 2006-December 2007) were analysed to determine the growth ...

  7. Volatility and Growth in Populations of Rural Associations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wollebaek, Dag

    2010-01-01

    This article uses unique community-level data aggregated from censuses of associations to analyze growth and volatility in rural populations of grassroots associations. A qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) shows that the two main paths to growth were (1) centralization in polycephalous (multicentered) municipalities and (2) population growth…

  8. Exile and demographic population growth in Serbia

    OpenAIRE

    Stevanović Radoslav

    2005-01-01

    The data of the 2002 population census on refugee population are analyzed in this paper with a basic aim to determine the significance (contribution) of refugee corpus in demographic development of the Republic of Serbia. By analyzing the data, it has been determined that the refugee corpus does not significantly differ from the domicile population in the basic, above all demographic and other qualitative characteristics. The differences which can be noticed with certain (primarily socio-econ...

  9. Winter temperatures limit population growth rate of a migratory songbird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodworth, Bradley K; Wheelwright, Nathaniel T; Newman, Amy E; Schaub, Michael; Norris, D Ryan

    2017-03-20

    Understanding the factors that limit and regulate wildlife populations requires insight into demographic and environmental processes acting throughout the annual cycle. Here, we combine multi-year tracking data of individual birds with a 26-year demographic study of a migratory songbird to evaluate the relative effects of density and weather at the breeding and wintering grounds on population growth rate. Our results reveal clear support for opposing forces of winter temperature and breeding density driving population dynamics. Above-average temperatures at the wintering grounds lead to higher population growth, primarily through their strong positive effects on survival. However, population growth is regulated over the long term by strong negative effects of breeding density on both fecundity and adult male survival. Such knowledge of how year-round factors influence population growth, and the demographic mechanisms through which they act, will vastly improve our ability to predict species responses to environmental change and develop effective conservation strategies for migratory animals.

  10. Green sea turtle age, growth, population characteristics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Morphology, sex ratio, body condition, disease status, age structure, and growth patterns were characterized for 448 green sea turtles cold stunned in St. Joseph...

  11. Population Growth and Economic Development: New Empirical Evidence from Thailand

    OpenAIRE

    Fumitaka Furuoka

    2009-01-01

    Population growth has a substantial impact on economic development. There are two schools of thought regarding this issue. Some researchers maintain that population has a negative impact on economic development while others are convinced that the effect is positive. This paper aims to provide additional evidence by employing the bounds test (Pesaran et al., 2001) to analyse a long-run relationship between population growth and economic development in Thailand. The findings of this study indic...

  12. Population Growth and Economic Development: Empirical Evidence from the Philippines

    OpenAIRE

    FURUOKA, Fumitaka

    2012-01-01

    Various concerns have been expressed about the ability of the world economy to sustain the ever-expanding world population. This paper aims to provide additional empirical evidence to the ongoing debate about the impact of population growth on economic development with the Philippines as a case study. The findings of this study indicate the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic performance and population growth in the Philippines. That is, economic development in t...

  13. POPULATION GROWTH AND HEALTH CARE DELIVERY IN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adamawa state population is projected to be approximately 2,819million by the year 2001. This gives an increase of 716,784 as compared to the 1991 census figure, which is 2,102,053 for the state. The last census (1991) formed the basis of this projection. Further,1996 projected population was projected to the year 2001.

  14. The Rapid Reproducers Paradox: Population Control and Individual Procreative Rights

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wissenburg, M.L.J.

    1998-01-01

    In this article, I consider the impact of population policies on individual rights (in a very broad sense of the word), a topic that has received disproportionately little attention in debates on the legitimacy of population rights. I first concentrate on arguments in favour of very radical

  15. Rapid expansion of intravitreal drug injection procedures, 2000 to 2008: a population-based analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Robert J; Bronskill, Susan E; Bell, Chaim M; Paterson, J Michael; Whitehead, Marlo; Gill, Sudeep S

    2010-03-01

    To evaluate patterns of care for age-related macular degeneration following the introduction of vascular endothelial growth factor inhibitors. Using a population-based retrospective design, we studied monthly fee claims for intravitreal injections submitted to the Ontario Health Insurance Plan between January 1, 2000, and March 30, 2008, and linked procedures to the physicians who performed them. This database records physician services provided as part of universal health care insurance coverage in Ontario, Canada. This program covers all residents of Ontario, which had an average population of 12.1 million during the study period. Following regulatory approval of bevacizumab for colorectal cancer in 2005, off-label use of this drug for the treatment of retinal disease, particularly age-related macular degeneration, became increasingly common. The rate of intravitreal injections in Ontario rapidly grew 8-fold, and this growth preceded the availability of ranibizumab by more than a year. Moreover, in 2007, more than 50% of intravitreal injections in Ontario were performed by 3% of ophthalmologists. The development of vascular endothelial growth factor inhibitors has revolutionized the treatment of age-related macular degeneration. To our knowledge, this study is the first to quantify the dramatic uptake of these treatments at a population level. Our findings also suggest that off-label injection of bevacizumab was highly prevalent in Ontario. Serial intravitreal injections requiring direct physician administration and the concentration of injection procedures in the hands of a small number of ophthalmologists have the potential to affect services for other vision-threatening conditions.

  16. Soil science, population growth and food production: some historical developments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartemink, A.E.

    2007-01-01

    The world¿s population has doubled since 1960. Currently, the developing world accounts for about 95% of the population growth with Africa as the world¿s fastest growing continent. The growing population has many implications but most of all it requires an increase in agricultural production to meet

  17. [Population: evolution of Rwandan attitudes or the adaptation of the Rwanda population to population growth].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngendakumana, M

    1988-04-01

    A consequence of the increasing pressure on Rwanda's ecosystem resulting from population growth has been that demographic factors have played a significant role in modifying attitudes and beliefs of the population. The history of Rwanda demonstrates a constant struggle for survival in the face of increasing population pressure. Migration, colonization of new agricultural lands, adoption of new crops and new forms of animal husbandry have been responses to population pressures. Recent unprecedented population growth has exceeded the capacity of older systems of cultivation and combinations of agricultural and animal husbandry to support the population. Smaller animals have largely replaced the cattle that once roamed freely in extensive pastures, and new techniques of stabling animals, use of organic or chemical fertilizers, and new tools adapted to the shrinking size of farm plots have represented responses to the new demographic realities. The concept of the family is likewise undergoing modification in the face of population growth and modernization. Children, who once were valued as a source of labor and constrained to conform to the wishes of the parents in return for the eventual inheritance of the goods and livelihood, now increasingly look beyond the household for education and employment. Family land holdings have become too small to support all the members with a claim on them. The greater distances between family members inevitably mean that relations between them lose closeness. The choice of a marriage partner is increasingly assumed by the young people themselves and not by their families. Old traditions of food sharing and hospitality have been curtailed because of the increasing scarcity of food. Despite the changes engendered by increasing population pressure, pronatalist sentiments are still widespread. But the desire to assure the future of each child rather than to await his services, a new conception of women less dependent on their reproductive

  18. Evidence from phylogenetic and genome fingerprinting analyses suggests rapidly changing variation in Halorubrum and Haloarcula populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ram Mohan, Nikhil; Fullmer, Matthew S.; Makkay, Andrea M.; Wheeler, Ryan; Ventosa, Antonio; Naor, Adit; Gogarten, J. Peter; Papke, R. Thane

    2014-01-01

    Halobacteria require high NaCl concentrations for growth and are the dominant inhabitants of hypersaline environments above 15% NaCl. They are well-documented to be highly recombinogenic, both in frequency and in the range of exchange partners. In this study, we examine the genetic and genomic variation of cultured, naturally co-occurring environmental populations of Halobacteria. Sequence data from multiple loci (~2500 bp) identified many closely and more distantly related strains belonging to the genera Halorubrum and Haloarcula. Genome fingerprinting using a random priming PCR amplification method to analyze these isolates revealed diverse banding patterns across each of the genera and surprisingly even for isolates that are identical at the nucleotide level for five protein coding sequenced loci. This variance in genome structure even between identical multilocus sequence analysis (MLSA) haplotypes indicates that accumulation of genomic variation is rapid: faster than the rate of third codon substitutions. PMID:24782838

  19. Evidence from phylogenetic and genome fingerprinting analyses suggests rapidly changing variation in Halorubrum and Haloarcula populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikhil eRam Mohan

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Halobacteria require high NaCl concentrations for growth and are the dominant inhabitants of hypersaline environments above 15% NaCl. They are well documented to be highly recombinogenic, both in frequency and in the range of exchange partners. In this study, we examine the genetic and genomic variation of cultured, naturally co-occurring environmental populations of Halobacteria. Sequence data from multiple loci (~2500bp identified closely related strains belonging to the genera Halorubrum and Haloarcula. Genome fingerprinting using a random priming PCR amplification method to analyze these isolates revealed diverse banding patterns within and across each of the genera and surprisingly even for isolates that are identical at the nucleotide level for five protein coding sequenced loci. This variance in genome structure even between identical multilocus sequence analysis (MLSA haplotypes suggests that accumulation of variation is rapid, perhaps occurring every generation.

  20. Curbing population growth in Republic of Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo-hyun, S

    1983-01-26

    The population of Korea is expected to increase by another 1/4 of the current population by the year 2000 if the government family planning program is successful. Aggravating Korea's demographic situation is the worldwide phenomenon of urban congestion. According to official statistics, Seoul's population increased from only 1 million in 1953 to 8.5 million in 1980, the latest year for which figures are available. While Seoul's population alone accounts for 22.3% of the total population, that of the greater Seoul area comprises 13,542,000 people or 35.5% of Korea's population. Most of the country's best institutions of higher learning are concentrated in Seoul, and in 1979 Seoul accounted for nearly half (47.7%) of the nation's college and graduate students. Seoul is also the center of the country's political, economic and cultural life and provides better employment opportunities than elsewhere in the country. The exodus of young people from rural areas and the growing census figures have triggered fears that the subsequently reduced agricultural productivity would result in a food supply crisis. In an attempt to remedy the demographic disparity between urban and rural areas, the government initiated a 10-year program in 1982 to promote jobs and improve medicare and the educational system in provincial cities. The plan encourages the establishment of factories and other auxiliary facilities outside the Seoul area that are necessary to support the 1988 Seoul Olympics. The program's success remains in question as it requires consistent, determined, and well coordinated efforts on the part of policy makers to curb the historical trend which has been gaining momentum over the past 100 years. 2 approaches have been adopted in the government's efforts to integrate population dynamics into the development process, overseas migration, and planned parenthood. Despite the 1981 liberalization of overseas travel for Koreans, Korean migration overseas is not expected to grow

  1. Population Growth and Environmental Recovery: More People ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper surveys the impact of growing population pressure on the environmental resource base of Ethiopia at large, and that of West Gurageland in particular, as reflected in the land use/land cover changes in light of the two noted and widely held neo-Malthusian (pessimistic) and Boesrupian (optimistic) views.

  2. A rare large right atrial myxoma with rapid growth rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Shawn C; Steffen, Kelly; Stys, Adam T

    2014-10-01

    Atrial myxomas are the most common benign intracavitary cardiac neoplasms. They most frequently occur in the left atrium. Right atrial tumors are rare, comprising 20 percent of myxomas achieving an incidence of 0.02 percent. Due to their rarity, right atrial tumor development and associated clinical symptoms has not been well described. The classical clinical triad for the presentation of left atrial myxomas--heart failure, embolic events, and constitutional symptoms--may not be applicable to right sided tumors. Also, natural development of myxoma is not well described, as surgical resection is the common practice. Previously ascribed growth rates of myxomas refer mostly to left atrial ones, as right atrial tumors are rare. We present a case of right atrial myxoma with growth rates exceeding those previously described.

  3. Cancer survivors in Switzerland: a rapidly growing population to care for

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Cancer survivors are a heterogeneous group with complex health problems. Data concerning its total number and growing dynamics for Switzerland are scarce and outdated. Methods Population and mortality data were retrieved from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Incidence and relative survival for invasive cancers were computed using data from the cancer registries Geneva (1970–2009), St. Gallen - Appenzell (1980–2010), Grisons & Glarus (1989–2010), and Valais (1989–2010). We estimated prevalence for 1990–2010 using the Prevalence, Incidence Approach MODel (PIAMOD) method. We calculated trends in prevalence estimates by Joinpoint analysis. Projections were extrapolated using the above models and based on time trends of the period 2007–2010. Results The estimated number of cancer survivors increased from 139′717 in 1990 (2.08% of the population) to 289′797 persons in 2010 (3.70%). The growth rate shows an exponential shape and was 3.3% per year in the period 2008 to 2010. Almost half of the survivors have a history of breast, prostate or colorectal cancer. Among cancer survivors, 55% are women but the increases have been more marked in men (p Switzerland. Conclusions There is a rapidly growing population of cancer survivors in Switzerland whose needs and concerns are largely unknown. PMID:23764068

  4. Poverty-led higher population growth in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakibullah, A; Rahman, A

    1996-01-01

    This article discusses the issue whether population growth is exogenous or endogenous in the economic development of Bangladesh. Overpopulation adversely affects food supplies, foreign exchange, and human resources. Moreover, it depresses savings per capita and retards growth of physical capital per labor. Underdeveloped countries, like Bangladesh, are faced with the problem of allocating resources between infrastructure, education, and health service that are essential for human capital development and population control measures. With this, determination whether fertility is exogenous or endogenous is important for policy purposes in the context of Bangladesh. Results showed that there is a correlation between population growth and real gross domestic products per capita. Based on Granger causality test, population growth is endogenous in the development process of Bangladesh and its overpopulation is due to poverty. Thus, there is a need for appropriate policy to take measures to improve human capital and decrease fertility rates.

  5. Innovation and the growth of human population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinberger, V P; Quiñinao, C; Marquet, P A

    2017-12-05

    Biodiversity is sustained by and is essential to the services that ecosystems provide. Different species would use these services in different ways, or adaptive strategies, which are sustained in time by continuous innovations. Using this framework, we postulate a model for a biological species (Homo sapiens) in a finite world where innovations, aimed at increasing the flux of ecosystem services (a measure of habitat quality), increase with population size, and have positive effects on the generation of new innovations (positive feedback) as well as costs in terms of negatively affecting the provision of ecosystem services. We applied this model to human populations, where technological innovations are driven by cumulative cultural evolution. Our model shows that depending on the net impact of a technology on the provision of ecosystem services (θ), and the strength of technological feedback (ξ), different regimes can result. Among them, the human population can fill the entire planet while maximizing their well-being, but not exhaust ecosystem services. However, this outcome requires positive or green technologies that increase the provision of ecosystem services with few negative externalities or environmental costs, and that have a strong positive feedback in generating new technologies of the same kind. If the feedback is small, then the technological stock can collapse together with the human population. Scenarios where technological innovations generate net negative impacts may be associated with a limited technological stock as well as a limited human population at equilibrium and the potential for collapse. The only way to fill the planet with humans under this scenario of negative technologies is by reducing the technological stock to a minimum. Otherwise, the only feasible equilibrium is associated with population collapse. Our model points out that technological innovations per se may not help humans to grow and dominate the planet. Instead, different

  6. The Growth of Older Inmate Populations: How Population Aging Explains Rising Age at Admission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luallen, Jeremy; Cutler, Christopher

    2017-09-01

    Older inmates are the fastest growing segment of the prison population; however, the reasons for this are not well understood. One explanation is that the general population is aging, driving prison age distributions to change. For this article, we study the role of population aging in prison growth by investigating how the baby boom phenomenon of post-World War II has contributed to the growth of older inmate populations. We identify the impact of population aging using simulation methods that explain prison growth as the combination of criminal justice processes. Overall, we find evidence that population aging has played a significant role in explaining the growth of older inmate populations, in particular among inmates aged between 50 and 64 years, contributing to as much as half of the observed increase in these groups since 2000. This finding stands in contrast to the notion that population aging has little explanatory power in describing the growth of prison populations and implies that older inmate groups are more sensitive to compositional changes in the general population. We argue that prediction-based modeling of prison growth should more seriously consider the impacts and consequences of demographic shifts among older prisoner populations.

  7. Troublesome trends: population growth, distribution, migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-09-01

    The upcoming International Conference on Population and Development and its draft plan of action call for international cooperation in protecting and assisting refugees and displaced persons and in assuring positive consequences in host and origin countries. The draft plan also aims to protect the elderly through enhancing self-reliance and continued work and independent living in their own communities. Social support systems for the elderly must also be strengthened. The document is also concerned with the movement of population to cities and across borders. Recommendations on migration encourage governments to evaluate the impact of economic and environmental policies on population distribution and migration, to promote development of medium-sized urban centers, to encourage rural economic development and placement of industries in rural areas, and to support access to land ownership or use and access to water resources in rural areas. Rural infrastructure and social services need to be improved. Grassroots organizations and cooperatives for establishing credit and marketing products are emphasized. Weak local area management is an obstacle to socioeconomic development, environmental protection, and population distribution. Waste, water, and land management strategies should be adopted. Prevention of the root causes of displacement is particularly important when environmental damage is the consequence or the cause. Women, children, and the elderly who are displaced need protection. Refugee numbers have swelled from 8.5 million in 1985 to 19 million in 1993. Sudden and mass refugee arrivals should be afforded temporary protection until a solution can be found. Conditions must be created for safe and dignified, voluntary repatriation. The social and economic integration of documented, longterm migrants must be assured.

  8. Rapid three dimensional two photon neural population scanning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuck, Renaud; Quicke, Peter; Copeland, Caroline; Garasto, Stefania; Annecchino, Luca A; Hwang, June Kyu; Schultz, Simon R

    2015-08-01

    Recording the activity of neural populations at high sampling rates is a fundamental requirement for understanding computation in neural circuits. Two photon microscopy provides one promising approach towards this. However, neural circuits are three dimensional, and functional imaging in two dimensions fails to capture the 3D nature of neural dynamics. Electrically tunable lenses (ETLs) provide a simple and cheap method to extend laser scanning microscopy into the relatively unexploited third dimension. We have therefore incorporated them into our Adaptive Spiral Scanning (SSA) algorithm, which calculates kinematically efficient scanning strategies using radially modulated spiral paths. We characterised the response of the ETL, incorporated its dynamics using MATLAB models of the SSA algorithm and tested the models on populations of Izhikevich neurons of varying size and density. From this, we show that our algorithms can theoretically at least achieve sampling rates of 36.2Hz compared to 21.6Hz previously reported for 3D scanning techniques.

  9. Rapid growth of left atrial myxoma after radiofrequency ablation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubio Alvarez, José; Martinez de Alegria, Anxo; Sierra Quiroga, Juan; Adrio Nazar, Belen; Rubio Taboada, Carola; Martinez Comendador, José Manuel

    2013-01-01

    Atrial myxoma is the most common benign tumor of the heart, but its appearance after radiofrequency ablation is very rare. We report a case in which an asymptomatic, rapidly growing cardiac myxoma arose in the left atrium after radiofrequency ablation. Two months after the procedure, cardiovascular magnetic resonance, performed to evaluate the right ventricular anatomy, revealed a 10 × 10-mm mass (assumed to be a thrombus) attached to the patient's left atrial septum. Three months later, transthoracic echocardiography revealed a larger mass, and the patient was diagnosed with myxoma. Two days later, a 20 × 20-mm myxoma weighing 37 g was excised. To our knowledge, the appearance of an atrial myxoma after radiofrequency ablation has been reported only once before. Whether tumor development is related to such ablation or is merely a coincidence is uncertain, but myxomas have developed after other instances of cardiac trauma.

  10. Rapid and Sensitive Detection of BLAD in Cattle Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Elena Ilie

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Bovine leukocyte adhesion deficiency (BLAD is an autosomal recessive disorder with negative impact on dairy cattle breeding. The molecular basis of BLAD is a single point mutation (A→G, resulting in a single amino acid substitution (aspartic acid → glycine at amino acid 128 in the adhesion molecule CD18. The object of this study was to establish a fast and sensitive molecular genotyping assay to detect BLAD carriers using high-resolution melting (HRM curve analysis. We tested animals with known genotypes for BLAD that were previously confirmed by PCR-RFLP method, and then examined the sensitivity of mutation detection using PCR followed by HRM curve analysis. BLAD carriers were readily detectable using HRM assay. Thus, the PCR-HRM genotyping method is a rapid, easily interpretable, reliable and cost-effective assay for BLAD mutant allele detection. This assay can be useful in cattle genotyping and genetic selection.

  11. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  12. The growth rates and population dynamics of bivalves in estuaries ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The growth rates and population dynamics of bivalves in estuaries and shallow seas in the. Northern Hemisphere have been extensively studied. In these regions bivalves occur in densities up to 7 fm/ml (Stephen 1928) and densities of 1 fm/ml are common. Further, growth studies on these animals have been facilitated by ...

  13. Population growth, economic security, and cultural change in wilderness counties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul A. Lorah

    2000-01-01

    A familiar version of the “jobs versus the environment” argument asserts that wilderness areas limit economic growth by locking up potentially productive natural resources. Analysis of the development paths of rural Western counties shows that this is unlikely: the presence of Wilderness is correlated with income, employment and population growth. Similarly, Wilderness...

  14. Surfaces Self-Assembly and Rapid Growth of Amyloid Fibrils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yichih; Petersson, E. James; Fakhraai, Zahra

    2014-03-01

    The mechanism of surface-mediated fibrillization has been considered as a key issue in understanding the origins of the neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases. In vitro, amyloid proteins fold through nucleation-elongation process. There is a critical concentration for early nucleating stage. However, some studies indicate that surfaces can modulate the fibril's formation under physiological conditions, even when the concentration is much lower than the critical concentration. Here, we use a label-free procedure to monitor the growth of fibrils across many length scales. We show that near a surface, the fibrillization process appears to bypass the nucleation step and fibrils grow through a self-assembly mechanism instead. We control and measure the pre-fibrillar morphology at different stages of this process on various surfaces. The interplay between the surface concentration and diffusion constant can help identify the detailed mechanisms of surface-mediated fibril growth, which remains largely unexplored. Our works provide a new insight in designing new probes and therapies. Supported by the National Institute On Aging of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number P30AG010124.

  15. Analysis of Population Growth and Land Use in Pelaneng Bokong ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The question of whether population growth can contribute to environmental degradation and undermine efforts to manage resources sustainably and ultimately impairing agricultural development is a long-standing concern. This paper uses a three-tier methodology consisting of analysis of population dynamics, mapping of ...

  16. A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi

    2006-01-01

    Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,…

  17. Psychologists and the problem of population growth : Reply to Bridgeman

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clayton, Susan; Carrico, Amanda; Steg, Linda; Swim, Janet K.; Bonnes, Mirilia; Devine-Wright, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Bridgeman (2017) describes the important role of population growth in contributing to environmental problems. The present essay argues that population is an important component of human impact on the environment, but it must be considered in combination with consumption rates. A place-based

  18. Models of the World human population growth- critical analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Golosovsky, Michael

    2009-01-01

    We analyze mathematical models of the global human population growth and compare them to actual dynamics of the world population and of the world surplus product. We consider a possibility that the so-called world's demographic transition is not a dynamic crossover but a phase transition that affects all aspects of our life.

  19. Population growth of Varroa destructor (Acari: Varroidae) in honey bee colonies is affected by the number of foragers with mites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varroa mites are a serious pest of honey bees and the leading cause of colony losses. Varroa have relatively low reproductive rates, so populations should not increase rapidly, but often they do. Other factors might contribute to the growth of Varroa populations including mite migration into colonie...

  20. Hydrothermal vents in Lake Tanganyika harbor spore-forming thermophiles with extremely rapid growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elsgaard, Lars; Prieur, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    and peptone. The optimum temperature for growth was 60 °C, while minimum and maximum temperatures were 40 and 75 °C. The pH response was alkalitolerant with optimum pH at 7.4 and 8.5 depending on the growth medium. The distinct feature of rapid proliferation and endospore formation may allow the novel...

  1. MOSFIRE ABSORPTION LINE SPECTROSCOPY OF z > 2 QUIESCENT GALAXIES: PROBING A PERIOD OF RAPID SIZE GROWTH

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belli, Sirio; Ellis, Richard S.; Konidaris, Nick P. [Department of Astronomy, California Institute of Technology, MS 249-17, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Newman, Andrew B. [The Observatories of the Carnegie Institution for Science, 813 Santa Barbara Street, Pasadena, CA 91101 (United States)

    2014-06-20

    Using the MOSFIRE near-infrared multi-slit spectrograph on the Keck 1 Telescope, we have secured high signal-to-noise ratio absorption line spectra for six massive galaxies with redshift 2 < z < 2.5. Five of these galaxies lie on the red sequence and show signatures of passive stellar populations in their rest-frame optical spectra. By fitting broadened spectral templates we have determined stellar velocity dispersions and, with broad-band Hubble Space Telescope and Spitzer photometry and imaging, stellar masses and effective radii. Using this enlarged sample of galaxies, we confirm earlier suggestions that quiescent galaxies at z > 2 have small sizes and large velocity dispersions compared to local galaxies of similar stellar mass. The dynamical masses are in very good agreement with stellar masses (log M {sub *}/M {sub dyn} = –0.02 ± 0.03), although the average stellar-to-dynamical mass ratio is larger than that found at lower redshift (–0.23 ± 0.05). By assuming evolution at fixed velocity dispersion, not only do we confirm a surprisingly rapid rate of size growth but we also consider the necessary evolutionary track on the mass-size plane and find a slope α = dlog R{sub e} /dlog M {sub *} ≳ 2 inconsistent with most numerical simulations of minor mergers. Both results suggest an additional mechanism may be required to explain the size growth of early galaxies.

  2. Population dynamics of metastable growth-rate phenotypes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay S Moore

    Full Text Available Neo-Darwinian evolution has presented a paradigm for population dynamics built on random mutations and selection with a clear separation of time-scales between single-cell mutation rates and the rate of reproduction. Laboratory experiments on evolving populations until now have concentrated on the fixation of beneficial mutations. Following the Darwinian paradigm, these experiments probed populations at low temporal resolution dictated by the rate of rare mutations, ignoring the intermediate evolving phenotypes. Selection however, works on phenotypes rather than genotypes. Research in recent years has uncovered the complexity of genotype-to-phenotype transformation and a wealth of intracellular processes including epigenetic inheritance, which operate on a wide range of time-scales. Here, by studying the adaptation dynamics of genetically rewired yeast cells, we show a novel type of population dynamics in which the intracellular processes intervene in shaping the population structure. Under constant environmental conditions, we measure a wide distribution of growth rates that coexist in the population for very long durations (>100 generations. Remarkably, the fastest growing cells do not take over the population on the time-scale dictated by the width of the growth-rate distributions and simple selection. Additionally, we measure significant fluctuations in the population distribution of various phenotypes: the fraction of exponentially-growing cells, the distributions of single-cell growth-rates and protein content. The observed fluctuations relax on time-scales of many generations and thus do not reflect noisy processes. Rather, our data show that the phenotypic state of the cells, including the growth-rate, for large populations in a constant environment is metastable and varies on time-scales that reflect the importance of long-term intracellular processes in shaping the population structure. This lack of time-scale separation between the

  3. Population growth and economic growth: empirical estimation for a sample of Balkan countries

    OpenAIRE

    Josheski, Dushko; Fotov, Risto

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we use pooled cross-sectional (longitudinal data) in a sample of 10 Balkan countries. The period we cover is from 1950-2009 data are for population and economic growth. In the theoreti-cal part we present optimal intergenerational model of population growth .The optimal population growth depends on capital in the future period and future consumption. Consumption should be great-er than zero, and less than total capital of the current generation. In the econometric part OLS regre...

  4. How does cell size regulation affect population growth?

    CERN Document Server

    Lin, Jie

    2016-01-01

    The proliferation of a growing microbial colony is well characterized by the population growth rate. However, at the single-cell level, isogenic cells often exhibit different cell-cycle durations. For evolutionary dynamics, it is thus important to establish the connection between the population growth rate and the heterogeneous single-cell generation time. Existing theories often make the assumption that the generation times of mother and daughter cells are independent. However, it has been shown that to maintain a bounded cell size distribution, cells that grow exponentially at the single-cell level need to adopt cell size regulation, leading to a negative correlation of mother-daughter generation time. In this work, we construct a general framework to describe the population growth in the presence of size regulation. We derive a formula for the population growth rate, which only depends on the variability of single-cell growth rate, independent of other sources of noises. Our work shows that a population ca...

  5. Population growth and the development of a central place system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cromley, Robert G.; Hanink, Dean M.

    2008-12-01

    This paper describes the spatial and functional evolution of a central place system as market conditions change with population growth. Utilizing a partial equilibrium optimization model, we examine the spatial response of two economic sectors to increases in market populations resulting from natural increase and migration. Response in both sectors is conditioned by threshold demand, with factor prices also affecting one of the sectors. As the central place system evolves it exhibits spatial and functional characteristics that are initially consistent with a Löschian landscape, then a Christallerian landscape at higher populations, while at even larger populations Krugman’s landscape emerges.

  6. Evolution in an Afternoon: Rapid Natural Selection and Adaptation of Bacterial Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delpech, Roger

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes a simple, rapid and low-cost technique for growing bacteria (or other microbes) in an environmental gradient, in order to determine the tolerance of the microbial population to varying concentrations of sodium chloride ions, and suggests how the evolutionary response of a microbial population to the selection pressure of the…

  7. Population growth and the benefits from optimally priced externalities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, H R; Ng Y-k

    1995-06-01

    "In this article we show that, considering only economic effects, even if population growth, by natural increase or immigration, increases congestion, pollution, and other forms of external costs, that provided pre-existing citizens own the resources giving rise to the externalities, and provided they efficiently price usage of such, that existing citizens must, in net average terms, be better off with population growth than without it. In simple terms the increased revenues they gain from efficient pricing at increased demand levels will be strictly greater than the monetary value of the increased external costs together with the higher tax costs they incur as consumers of the resources." excerpt

  8. Modeling bacterial population growth from stochastic single-cell dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Antonio A; Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-09-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to

  9. Inflation, GDP growth and population change in the USA

    OpenAIRE

    Ivan Kitov

    2006-01-01

    Inflation in the USA between 1960 and 2004 is studied in the framework of the revealed rigidity of the personal income distribution normalized to the total nominal GDP. Inflation is found to be a mechanism, which prevents changes in the relative incomes induced by economic growth and population changes - both in number and age structure. A model is developed linking CPI to GDP growth rate and relative change of the number of people of some specific age. The GDP growth rate is characterized by...

  10. Urban Ecology: Patterns of Population Growth and Ecological Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayne C. Zipperer; Steward T.A. Pickett

    2012-01-01

    Currently, over 50% of the world’s population lives in urban areas. By 2050, this estimate is expected to be 70%. This urban growth, however, is not uniformly distributed around the world. The majority of it will occur in developing nations and create megacities whose populations exceed at least 10 million people. Not all urban areas, however, are growing. Some are...

  11. Rise and fall of a wolf population: genetic diversity and structure during recovery, rapid expansion and drastic decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansson, E; Ruokonen, M; Kojola, I; Aspi, J

    2012-11-01

    The grey wolves (Canis lupus) of Finland have had a varied history, with a period of rapid population expansion after the mid-1990s followed by a decline with a current census size of about 140 wolves. Here, we investigate the impact of unstable population size and connectivity on genetic diversity and structure in a long-term genetic study of 298 Finnish wolves born in 1995-2009 and genotyped for 17 microsatellite loci. During the initial recovery and prior to population expansion, genetic diversity was high (1995-1997: LD-N(e)  = 67.2; H(o)  = 0.749; H(e)  = 0.709) despite a small census size and low number of breeders (N(c)  < 100; N(b)  < 10) likely reflecting the status of the Russian source population. Surprisingly, observed heterozygosity decreased significantly during the study period (t = -2.643, P = 0.021) despite population expansion, likely a result of an increase in inbreeding (F(IS)  = 0.108 in 2007-2009) owing to a low degree of connectivity with adjacent Russian wolf population (m = 0.016-0.090; F(ST)  = 0.086, P < 0.001) and population crash after 2006. However, population growth had a temporary positive impact on N(e) and number of family lines. This study shows that even strong population growth alone might not be adequate to retain genetic diversity, especially when accompanied with low amount of subsequent gene flow and population decline. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  12. Population growth confounds phylogeographic inference in Namaqua sandgrouse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delport, Wayne; Crowe, Timothy M; Lloyd, Penn; Bloomer, Paulette

    2007-01-01

    The Namaqua sandgrouse, Pterocles namaqua, is a highly nomadic granivore of semiarid to arid habitats. As a result of nomadic movements in response to rainfall, the size of the breeding population in any one area fluctuates dramatically between breeding seasons. This high mobility in response to spatial and temporal abundance of food resources is expected to result in little population genetic structuring. Namaqua sandgrouse also shows a seasonally predictable partial migration between the southeast and northwest regions of South Africa, and a further possible north-south migration between southwestern South Africa and central Namibia. It is unclear whether birds migrating between these regions breed in only one or both regions. If populations breed in only one region of their migratory range, then population genetic structuring is predicted to occur. This study addresses Namaqua sandgrouse movements with the analysis of mitochondrial DNA control region sequences. In general, little population genetic structure was evident, yet strong signals of population growth were detected. Several populations have private alleles, which is in direct contradiction to the spatial genetic pattern expected under high levels of gene flow. We suggest that the inference of high levels of female gene flow could be an artifact of population growth and that additional loci will allow a greater understanding of Namaqua sandgrouse movements.

  13. The population growth consequences of variation in individual heterozygosity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina M I Di Fonzo

    Full Text Available Heterozygosity has been associated with components of fitness in numerous studies across a wide range of taxa. Because heterozygosity is associated with individual performance it is also expected to be associated with population dynamics. However, investigations into the association between heterozygosity and population dynamics have been rare because of difficulties in linking evolutionary and ecological processes. The choice of heterozygosity measure is a further issue confounding such studies as it can be biased by individual differences in the frequencies of the alleles studied, the number of alleles at each locus as well as the total number of loci typed. In this study, we first examine the differences between the principal metrics used to calculate heterozygosity using long-term data from a marked population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries. Next, by means of statistical transformation of the homozygosity weighted by loci index, we determine how heterozygosity contributes to population growth in Soay sheep by modelling individual contributions to population growth (p(t(i as a function of several covariates, including sex, weight and faecal egg count--a surrogate of parasitic nematode burden in the gut. We demonstrate that although heterozygosity is associated with some components of fitness, most notably adult male reproductive success, in general it is only weakly associated with population growth.

  14. Feeding the world's increasing population while limiting climate change impacts; decoupling agriculture' s N2O and CH4 emissions from population growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, C.L.; Meerburg, B.G.; Schils, R.L.M.; Verhagen, J.; Kuikman, P.J.

    2010-01-01

    The global demand for agricultural products, including food, is rapidly increasing due to population growth and shifts in consumption patterns. The required increase in agricultural production is predominantly to be achieved in countries with relatively low agricultural production levels at present.

  15. Population growth, agrarian peasant economy and environmental degradation in Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madulu, N F

    1995-03-01

    Population strategies to relieve the density pressures on land and resources in Tanzania have not considered the basic causes of population growth. Resettlement results in the same environmental degradation as in the original settlement. There should be a reduction in the population growth and planning of proper land use and resource exploitation before resettlement. Rural development must include a decline in the dependency on subsistence agriculture. Population in Tanzania increased by 213% during 1948-88. An absolute increase in population size during 1978-88 is recorded despite a slight decline in the rate of growth. Death rates declined, but birth rates were relatively stable at around 50 per 1000 population. Regions with the highest growth rates were Dar es Salaam (4.8%), Rukwa (4.3%), Arusha (3.8%), Mbeya (3.1%), and Ruvuma (3.2%). The regions with the lowest rates were Tanga and Kilimanjaro (2.1%), Coast (2.1%), Lindi (2%), and Mtwara (1.4%). Low growth rates are attributed to low fertility and high infertility. Other factors affecting high growth rates are culture, rates of natural increase, intensity of internal and international migration, climatic conditions, and availability of resources. In 1988 46% of the population was under 15 years old. Per capita land availability declined from 11.8 hectares in 1948 to 3.8 hectares in 1988. The number of landless peasants increased. Productivity declined, and distances to farms increased. The total fertility rate was 6.5 children per woman in 1988 and 6.1 during 1991-92. Slight declines were apparent in the crude birth rate also. High fertility was a response to universal marriage, low contraceptive use (7% using modern methods during 1991-92), declining lactation periods, high mortality rates, and old traditions favoring large families. Children were used extensively in time-consuming and labor-intensive activities, such as fetching water. The mean number of children ever born was higher among women with 1

  16. Human population growth offsets climate-driven increase in woody vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Martin Stefan; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Peñuelas, Josep

    2017-01-01

    The rapidly growing human population in sub-Saharan Africa generates increasing demand for agricultural land and forest products, which presumably leads to deforestation. Conversely, a greening of African drylands has been reported, but this has been difficult to associate with changes in woody...... cover were associated with high population growth. The spatially distinct pattern of these opposing trends reflects, first, the natural response of vegetation to precipitation and atmospheric CO2, and second, deforestation in humid areas, minor in size but important for ecosystem services...

  17. The rapid analysis of fungal growth in the presence of inhibitory effects

    OpenAIRE

    Williams, Tyson

    2011-01-01

    For fungal contamination of foodstuffs, there are no fast, reliable, automated techniques to examine growth, nor have any predictive models been developed to describe the growth in the same way as for bacteria. Traditional plating methods can take 3 to 7 days to get adequate results depending on the fungal species utilised and well over a month for challenge testing, an unacceptable delay especially for the food industry. In this study two rapid analysis techniques were investi...

  18. Demonstrated rapid growth of a corpus callosum cavernous angioma within a short period of time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozer, E; Yücesoy, K; Kalemci, O

    2005-12-01

    Cavernous angiomas are uncommon central nervous system vascular malformations. They occur in the corpus callosum very rarely. In this study we report a case of corpus callosum cavernous angioma which demonstrated rapid growth within a short period of time. Corpus callosum cavernous angiomas have distinct features regarding growth and should be treated more carefully by giving more importance to surgical removal rather than a conservative approach.

  19. Recovering from a bad start: rapid adaptation and tradeoffs to growth below a threshold density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marx Christopher J

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bacterial growth in well-mixed culture is often assumed to be an autonomous process only depending upon the external conditions under control of the investigator. However, increasingly there is awareness that interactions between cells in culture can lead to surprising phenomena such as density-dependence in the initiation of growth. Results Here I report the unexpected discovery of a density threshold for growth of a strain of Methylobacterium extorquens AM1 used to inoculate eight replicate populations that were evolved in methanol. Six of these populations failed to grow to the expected full density during the first couple transfers. Remarkably, the final cell number of six populations crashed to levels 60- to 400-fold smaller than their cohorts. Five of these populations recovered to full density soon after, but one population remained an order of magnitude smaller for over one hundred generations. These variable dynamics appeared to be due to a density threshold for growth that was specific to both this particular ancestral strain and to growth on methanol. When tested at full density, this population had become less fit than its ancestor. Simply increasing the initial dilution 16-fold reversed this result, revealing that this population had more than a 3-fold advantage when tested at this lower density. As this population evolved and ultimately recovered to the same final density range as the other populations this low-density advantage waned. Conclusions These results demonstrate surprisingly strong tradeoffs during adaptation to growth at low absolute densities that manifest over just a 16-fold change in density. Capturing laboratory examples of transitions to and from growth at low density may help us understand the physiological and evolutionary forces that have led to the unusual properties of natural bacteria that have specialized to low-density environments such as the open ocean.

  20. Cage Culture Turbidostat: a Device for Rapid Determination of Algal Growth Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Skipnes, Olav; Eide, Ingvar; Jensen, Arne

    1980-01-01

    The present cage culture turbidostat consists of a growth chamber and a control unit. The microorganisms (photoautotrophic algae) are kept in the growth chamber by porous membranes (pore size 1 to 3 μm) which retain the algae but allow efficient exchange of the growth medium. Flow rate and composition of the medium can therefore be varied independently of algal population density. A reciprocating pumping mode of the medium is introduced to obtain more gentle clearance of membranes than that p...

  1. Poverty, population growth, and youth violence in DRC's cities ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-04-28

    Apr 28, 2016 ... Results from IDRC-supported research at the Université de Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), show that unregulated population growth — averaging 10 births per woman — combined with a lack of education and economic opportunities for impoverished youth, contribute to the proliferation ...

  2. Is There Hidden Potential for Rural Population Growth in Sweden?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niedomysl, Thomas; Amcoff, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Rural depopulation is a concern in many countries, and various policy initiatives have been taken to combat such trends. This article examines whether hidden potential for rural population growth can be found in Sweden. If such potential exists, it implies that the development prospects for many rural areas are not as unpromising as they may seem…

  3. Population Growth, Hysteresis and Development Outcomes in Sub ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study seeks to investigate if unemployment has been persistence and further examines the effect of population growth on the persistence level of unemployment in Nigeria. Consequent upon these, we trace the impacts that both portends for development outcomes in Nigeria for the period 1970-2012. The technique of ...

  4. Comparison of customised growth charts v. standard population ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    an electronic database was used to retrospectively generate customised centiles using a web-based tool (www.gestation.net). The first fetal growth scan of the third trimester, as determined by ultrasound, was plotted for each patient on both the population-based and .... closer monitoring to prevent neonatal morbidity.

  5. The Vatican & Population Growth Control: Why an American Confrontation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumford, Stephen D.

    1983-01-01

    The Vatican, because of its position on population growth, threatens the security of all nations. Catholic countries with right-wing dictatorships cannot confront the Vatican on family planning and survive. U.S. Catholics must confront the Vatican on this issue. American lay Catholics must break the American church away from the Vatican control.…

  6. Computer Simulation of the Population Growth (Schizosaccharomyces Pombe) Experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daley, Michael; Hillier, Douglas

    1981-01-01

    Describes a computer program (available from authors) developed to simulate "Growth of a Population (Yeast) Experiment." Students actively revise the counting techniques with realistically simulated haemocytometer or eye-piece grid and are reminded of the necessary dilution technique. Program can be modified to introduce such variables…

  7. The relationship between population growth and poverty in Africa: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This view is as a result of ritualistic adherence to narrow ideological considerations and predetermined stereotypes about Africa. From a political economy perspective, this paper re-appraises the relationship between population growth and poverty in Africa. Quantitative and qualitative evidence are drawn from the ...

  8. Low-Temperature and Rapid Growth of Large Single-Crystalline Graphene with Ethane.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao; Lin, Li; Sun, Luzhao; Zhang, Jincan; Rui, Dingran; Li, Jiayu; Wang, Mingzhan; Tan, Congwei; Kang, Ning; Wei, Di; Xu, H Q; Peng, Hailin; Liu, Zhongfan

    2017-11-10

    Future applications of graphene rely highly on the production of large-area high-quality graphene, especially large single-crystalline graphene, due to the reduction of defects caused by grain boundaries. However, current large single-crystalline graphene growing methodologies are suffering from low growth rate and as a result, industrial graphene production is always confronted by high energy consumption, which is primarily caused by high growth temperature and long growth time. Herein, a new growth condition achieved via ethane being the carbon feedstock to achieve low-temperature yet rapid growth of large single-crystalline graphene is reported. Ethane condition gives a growth rate about four times faster than methane, achieving about 420 µm min(-1) for the growth of sub-centimeter graphene single crystals at temperature about 1000 °C. In addition, the temperature threshold to obtain graphene using ethane can be reduced to 750 °C, lower than the general growth temperature threshold (about 1000 °C) with methane on copper foil. Meanwhile ethane always keeps higher graphene growth rate than methane under the same growth temperature. This study demonstrates that ethane is indeed a potential carbon source for efficient growth of large single-crystalline graphene, thus paves the way for graphene in high-end electronical and optoelectronical applications. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  9. Rapid differentiation of sexual signals in invasive toads: call variation among populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasumiba, Kiyomi; Duffy, Richard L.; Parsons, Scott A.; Alford, Ross A.; Schwarzkopf, Lin

    2016-01-01

    Advertisement calls tend to differ among populations, based on morphological and environmental factors, or simply geographic distance, in many taxa. Invasive cane toads (Rhinella marina) were introduced to Australia in 1935 and their distribution has expanded at increasing rates over time. Rapid evolution occurred in morphological and behavioural characters that accelerate dispersal, but the effects of rapid expansion on sexual signals have not been examined. We collected advertisement calls from four populations of different ages since invasion, and analysed the geographic differentiation of seven call parameters. Our comparisons indicate that the calls of R. marina differ among Australian populations. The signal variation was not simply clinal with respect to population age, climate, or morphological differentiation. We suggest that selection on signalling among populations has been idiosyncratic and may reflect local female preferences or adaptation to environmental factors that are not clinal such as energy availability. PMID:27328666

  10. Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armit, Ian; Swindles, Graeme T; Becker, Katharina; Plunkett, Gill; Blaauw, Maarten

    2014-12-02

    The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological (14)C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

  11. Governing Rapid Growth in Asia: State-led Development in Historical Perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T-W. Ngo (Tak-Wing)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractRapid growth in Asia has often been explained in terms of effective policies pursued by a “developmental state”. In particular, countries in East Asia are said to be characterized by the presence of a strong state with technocratic capacity and social embeddedness. This inaugural address

  12. Nitric Acid and Benomyl Stimulate Rapid Height Growth of Longleaf Pine

    Science.gov (United States)

    A.G. Kais; R.C. Hare; J.P. Barnett

    1984-01-01

    Rapid height growth of longleaf pine seedlings, important to production of uniform, even-aged stands, can be promoted by controlling brown-spot needle blight and weed competition, and by increasing soil fertility. Root systems of container-grown longleaf pine seedlings were dip-treated in either benomyl/clay mix (10 percent a.i. benomyl) or clay control and planted...

  13. A comparison of test statistics for the recovery of rapid growth-based enumeration tests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Heuvel, Edwin R.; IJzerman-Boon, Pieta C.

    This paper considers five test statistics for comparing the recovery of a rapid growth-based enumeration test with respect to the compendial microbiological method using a specific nonserial dilution experiment. The finite sample distributions of these test statistics are unknown, because they are

  14. Rapid evolution leads to differential population dynamics and top-down control in resurrectedDaphniapopulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goitom, Eyerusalem; Kilsdonk, Laurens J; Brans, Kristien; Jansen, Mieke; Lemmens, Pieter; De Meester, Luc

    2018-01-01

    There is growing evidence of rapid genetic adaptation of natural populations to environmental change, opening the perspective that evolutionary trait change may subsequently impact ecological processes such as population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. To study such eco-evolutionary feedbacks in natural populations, however, requires samples across time. Here, we capitalize on a resurrection ecology study that documented rapid and adaptive evolution in a natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna in response to strong changes in predation pressure by fish, and carry out a follow-up mesocosm experiment to test whether the observed genetic changes influence population dynamics and top-down control of phytoplankton. We inoculated populations of the water flea D. magna derived from three time periods of the same natural population known to have genetically adapted to changes in predation pressure in replicate mesocosms and monitored both Daphnia population densities and phytoplankton biomass in the presence and absence of fish. Our results revealed differences in population dynamics and top-down control of algae between mesocosms harboring populations from the time period before, during, and after a peak in fish predation pressure caused by human fish stocking. The differences, however, deviated from our a priori expectations. An S-map approach on time series revealed that the interactions between adults and juveniles strongly impacted the dynamics of populations and their top-down control on algae in the mesocosms, and that the strength of these interactions was modulated by rapid evolution as it occurred in nature. Our study provides an example of an evolutionary response that fundamentally alters the processes structuring population dynamics and impacts ecosystem features.

  15. Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B.; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H.; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

    2017-01-01

    Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period’s discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing—rather than merely cost savings—again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. PMID:29087298

  16. Modeling the pre-industrial roots of modern super-exponential population growth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aaron Jonas Stutz

    Full Text Available To Malthus, rapid human population growth-so evident in 18th Century Europe-was obviously unsustainable. In his Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus cogently argued that environmental and socioeconomic constraints on population rise were inevitable. Yet, he penned his essay on the eve of the global census size reaching one billion, as nearly two centuries of super-exponential increase were taking off. Introducing a novel extension of J. E. Cohen's hallmark coupled difference equation model of human population dynamics and carrying capacity, this article examines just how elastic population growth limits may be in response to demographic change. The revised model involves a simple formalization of how consumption costs influence carrying capacity elasticity over time. Recognizing that complex social resource-extraction networks support ongoing consumption-based investment in family formation and intergenerational resource transfers, it is important to consider how consumption has impacted the human environment and demography--especially as global population has become very large. Sensitivity analysis of the consumption-cost model's fit to historical population estimates, modern census data, and 21st Century demographic projections supports a critical conclusion. The recent population explosion was systemically determined by long-term, distinctly pre-industrial cultural evolution. It is suggested that modern globalizing transitions in technology, susceptibility to infectious disease, information flows and accumulation, and economic complexity were endogenous products of much earlier biocultural evolution of family formation's embeddedness in larger, hierarchically self-organizing cultural systems, which could potentially support high population elasticity of carrying capacity. Modern super-exponential population growth cannot be considered separately from long-term change in the multi-scalar political economy that connects family

  17. Growth curves for ostriches (Struthio camelus) in a Brazilian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, S B; Caetano, S L; Savegnago, R P; Nunes, B N; Ramos, A A; Munari, D P

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to fit growth curves using nonlinear and linear functions to describe the growth of ostriches in a Brazilian population. The data set consisted of 112 animals with BW measurements from hatching to 383 d of age. Two nonlinear growth functions (Gompertz and logistic) and a third-order polynomial function were applied. The parameters for the models were estimated using the least-squares method and Gauss-Newton algorithm. The goodness-of-fit of the models was assessed using R(2) and the Akaike information criterion. The R(2) calculated for the logistic growth model was 0.945 for hens and 0.928 for cockerels and for the Gompertz growth model, 0.938 for hens and 0.924 for cockerels. The third-order polynomial fit gave R(2) of 0.938 for hens and 0.924 for cockerels. Among the Akaike information criterion calculations, the logistic growth model presented the lowest values in this study, both for hens and for cockerels. Nonlinear models are more appropriate for describing the sigmoid nature of ostrich growth.

  18. Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Jose Struchiner

    Full Text Available In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83. Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue.

  19. Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Struchiner, Claudio Jose; Rocklöv, Joacim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Massad, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue.

  20. Adapting to Population Growth: The Evolutionary Alternative to Malthus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axel Kristinsson

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A long-standing debate on the dynamics of population growth in human history has become polarized between a Malthusian stance and a Boserupian one. The former tends to view population growth as limited by carrying capacity, dependent on environment and technology, whereas the latter sees population growth itself as a major inducement to social, economic and technological developments. In this paper the authors experiment with approaching this debate by using recent developments in evolutionary theory. According to these, evolutionary principles, as expounded by Charles Darwin and subsequent evolutionary scientists, apply not only to biological evolution but also to social or cultural evolution. Here, the role of genes is taken over by culture and, since culture is much more pliable than our DNA, evolution speeds up. As the only organisms on Earth whose evolution relies as heavily on culture as on genes, humans have become extremely adaptable. Their hyper-adaptability suggest that humans, through their cultural evolution, have managed increasingly to adapt to their own growing population, thus succeeding in accommodating ever-growing numbers. This hypothesis fits the Boserupian approach to population very well but less so the Malthusian one, perhaps indicating a gradual shift from a Malthusian regime to a Boserupian one in human history. The hypothesis is discussed and examined through four case studies: The beginning of farming around Göbekli Tepe in southeast Turkey, the productive farming systems of Tiwanaku in South America, the population crisis of late medieval and early modern Iceland, and the ‘collapse’ of Rapa Nui (Easter Island.

  1. Impacts of breeder loss on social structure, reproduction and population growth in a social canid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borg, Bridget L; Brainerd, Scott M; Meier, Thomas J; Prugh, Laura R

    2015-01-01

    The importance of individuals to the dynamics of populations may depend on reproductive status, especially for species with complex social structure. Loss of reproductive individuals in socially complex species could disproportionately affect population dynamics by destabilizing social structure and reducing population growth. Alternatively, compensatory mechanisms such as rapid replacement of breeders may result in little disruption. The impact of breeder loss on the population dynamics of social species remains poorly understood. We evaluated the effect of breeder loss on social stability, recruitment and population growth of grey wolves (Canis lupus) in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska using a 26-year dataset of 387 radiocollared wolves. Harvest of breeding wolves is a highly contentious conservation and management issue worldwide, with unknown population-level consequences. Breeder loss preceded 77% of cases (n = 53) of pack dissolution from 1986 to 2012. Packs were more likely to dissolve if a female or both breeders were lost and pack size was small. Harvest of breeders increased the probability of pack dissolution, likely because the timing of harvest coincided with the breeding season of wolves. Rates of denning and successful recruitment were uniformly high for packs that did not experience breeder loss; however, packs that lost breeders exhibited lower denning and recruitment rates. Breeder mortality and pack dissolution had no significant effects on immediate or longer term population dynamics. Our results indicate the importance of breeding individuals is context dependent. The impact of breeder loss on social group persistence, reproduction and population growth may be greatest when average group sizes are small and mortality occurs during the breeding season. This study highlights the importance of reproductive individuals in maintaining group cohesion in social species, but at the population level socially complex species may be resilient

  2. Linear age-dependent population growth with seasonal harvesting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez, D A

    1980-06-01

    A population growth is modelled by the Von Foerster PDE with accompanying Lotka-Volterra integral equation describing the birth rate; the age specific death and fertility rates are assumed to depend only on age and not time. A harvesting policy where a fraction of the population of age greater than a given age is harvested for a fraction of a given season. This introduces a time dependence, but this difficulty is circumvented by devising approximate time-independent models whose birthrates bracket the true birthrate--the standard renewal equation theory applies to the approximate models so quantitative results can be obtained.

  3. The slowdown in population growth: causes and consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willmann, H; Hoyt, S

    1989-01-01

    U.S. population trends are projected using data from the Bureau of the Census. The focus is on the economic consequences of these trends. The authors conclude that the economic impact will be relatively slight up to the year 2000. "After 2000, the changes to the economic outlook will be more significant. The aging of the population will accelerate and the pace of economic growth is likely to slow even further. More resources will be devoted to caring for the elderly, while public and private pension systems will need to draw down savings to provide for the retirement of the baby-boom generation." excerpt

  4. Genomic growth curves of an outbred pig population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabyano Fonseca e Silva

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In the current post-genomic era, the genetic basis of pig growth can be understood by assessing SNP marker effects and genomic breeding values (GEBV based on estimates of these growth curve parameters as phenotypes. Although various statistical methods, such as random regression (RR-BLUP and Bayesian LASSO (BL, have been applied to genomic selection (GS, none of these has yet been used in a growth curve approach. In this work, we compared the accuracies of RR-BLUP and BL using empirical weight-age data from an outbred F2 (Brazilian Piau X commercial population. The phenotypes were determined by parameter estimates using a nonlinear logistic regression model and the halothane gene was considered as a marker for evaluating the assumptions of the GS methods in relation to the genetic variation explained by each locus. BL yielded more accurate values for all of the phenotypes evaluated and was used to estimate SNP effects and GEBV vectors. The latter allowed the construction of genomic growth curves, which showed substantial genetic discrimination among animals in the final growth phase. The SNP effect estimates allowed identification of the most relevant markers for each phenotype, the positions of which were coincident with reported QTL regions for growth traits.

  5. Growth rates in a captive population of Tonkean macaques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanna, Andrea; De Marco, Arianna; Thierry, Bernard; Cozzolino, Roberto

    2015-07-01

    Measuring variations in body mass is necessary to gain a deeper understanding of the evolution of life-history patterns, and it provides information on the timing of sexual maturity and the development of sexual dimorphism. In this study, we collected longitudinal data on body mass from infancy to adulthood in a captive population of Tonkean macaques (Macaca tonkeana). Tests to evaluate whether social group, maternal age, and dominance rank influenced growth rates showed that they had no significant effect. We investigated the timing and magnitude of breaking points in the growth paths of males and females, and checked whether these breaking points could correspond to specific reproductive and morphological developmental events. We found that male and female Tonkean macaques have roughly equivalent body masses until around the age of four, when males go through an adolescent growth spurt and females continue to grow at a constant rate. Males not only grow faster than females, but they also continue to grow for nearly one and a half years after females have attained their full body mass. Growth rate differences account for approximately two-thirds of the body mass sexual dimorphism; only the remaining third results from continued male growth beyond the age where full body mass is reached in females. We also discovered remarkable correspondences between the timing of testicular enlargement and the adolescent growth spurt in males, and between dental development and slowdown breaking points in both sexes.

  6. Population growth in colonial America: A study of Ipswich, Massachusetts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton, S L

    1971-11-01

    Abstract During the colonial period, the settlements that subsequently became the United States of America experienced a tremendous growth of population. Although part of this increase was due to emigration from England and other European countries, most of the growth must be laid to the natural increase of the immigrants and their descendants. We are only beginning to probe the mechanisms ofthis increase. By numerous local studies, using the methods of historical demography that have largely been developed with work in French and English sources, we should eventually be able to describe the demographic nature of New World communities, and to understand how their populations were responding to a new physical, social and economic environment.

  7. Rapid Point-of-Care Diagnostic Test for Syphilis in High-Risk Populations, Manaus, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benzaken, Adele S.; de Andrade Rodrigues, Ệnio José; Mayaud, Philippe

    2009-01-01

    We assessed the acceptability and operational suitability of a rapid point-of-care syphilis test and identified barriers to testing among high-risk groups and healthcare professionals in a sexually transmitted infections clinic in Manaus, Brazil. Use of this test could considerably alleviate the impact of syphilis in hard-to-reach populations in the Amazon region of Brazil. PMID:19331762

  8. A Pilot Study of Rapid Hepatitis C Testing in Probation and Parole Populations in Rhode Island.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaller, Nickolas D; Patry, Emily J; Bazerman, Lauri B; Noska, Amanda; Kuo, Irene; Kurth, Ann; Beckwith, Curt G

    2016-01-01

    Hepatitis C virus (HCV) affects between five and seven million individuals in the United States and chronic infection can lead to liver disease, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. Probation/parole offices are a novel setting for rapid HCV testing, providing outreach to populations at increased risk for HCV infection and/or transmitting HCV to others. While some correctional facilities offer HCV testing, many individuals who present to probation/parole offices are never or briefly incarcerated and may not access medical services. We conducted a rapid HCV testing pilot at probation/parole offices in Rhode Island. Overall, 130 people accepted rapid HCV testing, of whom 12 had reactive tests. Only four of these individuals presented to a community-based clinic for confirmatory testing, despite being offered a monetary incentive. Identifying and addressing barriers to HCV confirmatory testing and follow-up care is critical to increasing the uptake of HCV care and treatment in this vulnerable population.

  9. Philippine laws, regulations back policy to contain population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-01-01

    A recent compilation of population related decrees promulgated since martial law was declared in the Philippines in 1972 indicates that the government may be designing a legal framework encouraging voluntary limitation of family size. The list which was published in an appendix to the 1974-1977 Population Program, reveals that population influencing policies dealing with taxation, maternity benefits, incentive schemes and provision of family planning services by employers are already in effect. Since 1972 tax relief has been restricted to 4 dependents. Paid maternity leave is limited to the first 4 deliveries. Firms with over 300 employees are required to set up family planning clinics, and smaller firms must have infirmary personnel who are trained and certified in the provision of family planning services. Also, the Department of Labor is encouraging employers to develop incentive programs that will encourage workers to use effective family planning methods. The latest population plan also gives top priority to research, calls for targeting information to labor leaders, engaged couples, and out of school youth, and proposes disseminating population and family planning information through residential cooperatives and grass roots organizations. The aim of the current plan is to reduce the birthrate to 35.9 per 100 and the population growth rate to 2.47% by the end of the 4 year period. It is projected that by 1977 58% of the eligible population will be practicing contraception.

  10. Population growth of Varroa destructor (Acari: Varroidae) in honey bee colonies is affected by the number of foragers with mites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeGrandi-Hoffman, Gloria; Ahumada, Fabiana; Zazueta, Victor; Chambers, Mona; Hidalgo, Geoffrey; deJong, Emily Watkins

    2016-05-01

    Varroa mites are a serious pest of honey bees and the leading cause of colony losses. Varroa have relatively low reproductive rates, so populations should not increase rapidly, but often they do. Other factors might contribute to the growth of varroa populations including mite migration into colonies on foragers from other hives. We measured the proportion of foragers carrying mites on their bodies while entering and leaving hives, and determined its relationship to the growth of varroa populations in those hives at two apiary sites. We also compared the estimates of mite population growth with predictions from a varroa population dynamics model that generates estimates of mite population growth based on mite reproduction. Samples of capped brood and adult bees indicated that the proportion of brood cells infested with mites and adult bees with phoretic mites was low through the summer but increased sharply in the fall especially at site 1. The frequency of capturing foragers with mites on their bodies while entering or leaving hives also increased in the fall. The growth of varroa populations at both sites was not significantly related to our colony estimates of successful mite reproduction, but instead to the total number of foragers with mites (entering and leaving the colony). There were more foragers with mites at site 1 than site 2, and mite populations at site 1 were larger especially in the fall. The model accurately estimated phoretic mite populations and infested brood cells until November when predictions were much lower than those measured in colonies. The rapid growth of mite populations particularly in the fall being a product of mite migration rather than mite reproduction only is discussed.

  11. Measurements of crystal growth kinetics at extreme deviations from equilibrium. [Rapid solidification processing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aziz, M.J.

    1993-05-07

    We have measured solute trapping of Sn in Al over a wide enough range of velocities to make a quantitative test of theory. The Continuous Growth Model of Aziz is the only one-parameter model that fits the data. We have also measured the diffusive speed - the growth rate at which interfacial partitioning is in mid-transition between equilibrium partitioning and complete solute trapping - for several solutes in A1. We have found an inverse correlation between the equilibrium partition coefficient and the diffusive speed. Taken together, these results give us heretofore unprecedented predictive capability in modeling rapid solidification processing. We have also examined theoretically short-range diffusion-limited growth, characteristic of incomplete solute trapping, and interface-limited growth, characteristic of complete solute trapping, in alloy solidification and have shown that the two regimes fall naturally out of a single unified theory of solidification.

  12. Is faster economic growth compatible with reductions in carbon emissions? The role of diminished population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casey, Gregory; Galor, Oded

    2017-01-01

    We provide evidence that lower fertility can simultaneously increase income per capita and lower carbon emissions, eliminating a trade-off central to most policies aimed at slowing global climate change. We estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions, accounting for the fact that changes in fertility patterns affect carbon emissions through three channels: total population, the age structure of the population, and economic output. Our analysis proceeds in two steps. First, we estimate the elasticity of carbon emissions with respect to population and income per capita in an unbalanced yearly panel of cross-country data from 1950-2010. We demonstrate that the elasticity with respect to population is nearly seven times larger than the elasticity with respect to income per capita and that this difference is statistically significant. Thus, the regression results imply that 1% slower population growth could be accompanied by an increase in income per capita of nearly 7% while still lowering carbon emissions. In the second part of our analysis, we use a recently constructed economic-demographic model of Nigeria to estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions, accounting for the impacts of fertility on population growth, population age structure, and income per capita. We find that by 2100 C.E. moving from the medium to the low variant of the UN fertility projection leads to 35% lower yearly emissions and 15% higher income per capita. These results suggest that population policies could be part of the approach to combating global climate change.

  13. Modeling the Pre-Industrial Roots of Modern Super-Exponential Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stutz, Aaron Jonas

    2014-01-01

    To Malthus, rapid human population growth—so evident in 18th Century Europe—was obviously unsustainable. In his Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus cogently argued that environmental and socioeconomic constraints on population rise were inevitable. Yet, he penned his essay on the eve of the global census size reaching one billion, as nearly two centuries of super-exponential increase were taking off. Introducing a novel extension of J. E. Cohen's hallmark coupled difference equation model of human population dynamics and carrying capacity, this article examines just how elastic population growth limits may be in response to demographic change. The revised model involves a simple formalization of how consumption costs influence carrying capacity elasticity over time. Recognizing that complex social resource-extraction networks support ongoing consumption-based investment in family formation and intergenerational resource transfers, it is important to consider how consumption has impacted the human environment and demography—especially as global population has become very large. Sensitivity analysis of the consumption-cost model's fit to historical population estimates, modern census data, and 21st Century demographic projections supports a critical conclusion. The recent population explosion was systemically determined by long-term, distinctly pre-industrial cultural evolution. It is suggested that modern globalizing transitions in technology, susceptibility to infectious disease, information flows and accumulation, and economic complexity were endogenous products of much earlier biocultural evolution of family formation's embeddedness in larger, hierarchically self-organizing cultural systems, which could potentially support high population elasticity of carrying capacity. Modern super-exponential population growth cannot be considered separately from long-term change in the multi-scalar political economy that connects family formation and

  14. Seed limitation restricts population growth in shaded populations of a perennial woodland orchid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquemyn, Hans; Brys, Rein; Jongejans, Eelke

    2010-01-01

    Seed production and seedling recruitment are thought to be of minor importance in determining population dynamics and long-term viability in long-lived perennial plants. Seed addition experiments, on the other hand, have amply shown that supplemental addition of seeds almost always, irrespective of longevity, results in increased seedling recruitment. Any change in the environment that affects fruit and seed production can thus be expected to affect seedling recruitment, but the extent to which increased fruit and seed production affect overall population dynamics remains relatively unknown. In this paper, we present demographic data of six populations of the long-lived woodland orchid Orchis purpurea that were monitored for seven consecutive years (2002-2008) occurring in two contrasting light environments. We use a nested life table response experiment (LTRE) at the vital rate level to disentangle the relative contributions of each of six annual transitions, six sites, and two light environments on the population dynamics of this species and to determine vital rate variations that contributed most to variation in population growth rate. Population growth rates (lamda) were significantly higher in the light environment than in the shaded environment (average lamda = 0.9930 and 1.0492 in the shaded and light environment, respectively). The LTRE analysis showed that variation in fecundity and, to a lesser extent, variation in growth made the largest total contributions to variation in lamda, whereas the contributions of variation in survival were almost negligible. Fruit production was two times larger and the net reproductive rate (R0) was approximately six times higher in the light environment than in shaded areas, suggesting that variables related to reproduction are the key drivers of population dynamics of this long-lived orchid species in different light environments. Our results indicate that light is an important factor affecting population dynamics of

  15. Minimal models of growth and decline of microbial populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juška, Alfonsas

    2011-01-21

    Dynamics of growth and decline of microbial populations were analysed and respective models were developed in this investigation. Analysis of the dynamics was based on general considerations concerning the main properties of microorganisms and their interactions with the environment which was supposed to be affected by the activity of the population. Those considerations were expressed mathematically by differential equations or systems of the equations containing minimal sets of parameters characterizing those properties. It has been found that: (1) the factors leading to the decline of the population have to be considered separately, namely, accumulation of metabolites (toxins) in the medium and the exhaustion of resources; the latter have to be separated again into renewable ('building materials') and non-renewable (sources of energy); (2) decline of the population is caused by the exhaustion of sources of energy but no decline is predicted by the model because of the exhaustion of renewable resources; (3) the model determined by the accumulation of metabolites (toxins) in the medium does not suggest the existence of a separate 'stationary phase'; (4) in the model determined by the exhaustion of energy resources the 'stationary' and 'decline' phases are quite discernible; and (5) there is no symmetry in microbial population dynamics, the decline being slower than the rise. Mathematical models are expected to be useful in getting insight into the process of control of the dynamics of microbial populations. The models are in agreement with the experimental data. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Self-Assembled Biosensors on a Solid Interface for Rapid Detection and Growth Monitoring of Bacteria

    CERN Document Server

    Kinnunen, Paivo; Craig, Elizabeth; Brahmasandra, Sundu; McNaughton, Brandon H

    2012-01-01

    Developing rapid methods for pathogen detection and growth monitoring at low cell and analyte concentrations is an important goal, which numerous technologies are working towards solving. Rapid biosensors have already made a dramatic impact on improving patient outcomes and with continued development, these technologies may also help limit the emergence of antimicrobial resistance and reduce the ever expanding risk of foodborne illnesses. One technology that is being developed with these goals in mind is asynchronous magnetic bead rotation (AMBR) biosensors. Self-assembled AMBR biosensors have been demonstrated at water/air and water/oil interfaces, and here, for the first time, we report on self-assembled AMBR biosensors used at a solid interface. The solid interface configuration was used to measure the growth of Escherichia coli with two distinct phenomena at low cell concentrations: firstly, the AMBR rotational period decreased and secondly, the rotational period increased after several division times. Ta...

  17. Chd1 is essential for the high transcriptional output and rapid growth of the mouse epiblast

    OpenAIRE

    Guzman-Ayala, Marcela; Sachs, Michael; Koh, Fong Ming; Onodera, Courtney; Bulut-Karslioglu, Aydan; Lin, Chih-Jen; Wong, Priscilla; Nitta, Rachel; Song, Jun S.; Ramalho-Santos, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    The pluripotent mammalian epiblast undergoes unusually fast cell proliferation. This rapid growth is expected to generate a high transcriptional demand, but the underlying mechanisms remain unknown. We show here that the chromatin remodeler Chd1 is required for transcriptional output and development of the mouse epiblast. Chd1−/− embryos exhibit proliferation defects and increased apoptosis, are smaller than controls by E5.5 and fail to grow, to become patterned or to gastrulate. Removal of p...

  18. Rapid growth and childhood obesity are strongly associated with lysoPC(14:0).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rzehak, Peter; Hellmuth, Christian; Uhl, Olaf; Kirchberg, Franca F; Peissner, Wolfgang; Harder, Ulrike; Grote, Veit; Weber, Martina; Xhonneux, Annick; Langhendries, Jean-Paul; Ferre, Natalia; Closa-Monasterolo, Ricardo; Verduci, Elvira; Riva, Enrica; Socha, Piotr; Gruszfeld, Dariusz; Koletzko, Berthold

    2014-01-01

    Despite the growing interest in the early-origins-of-later-disease hypothesis, little is known about the metabolic underpinnings linking infant weight gain and childhood obesity. To discover biomarkers reflective of weight change in the first 6 months and overweight/obesity at age 6 years via a targeted metabolomics approach. This analysis comprised 726 infants from a European multicenter randomized trial (Childhood Obesity Programme, CHOP) for whom plasma blood samples at age 6 months and anthropometric data up to the age of 6 years were available. 'Rapid growth' was defined as a positive difference in weight within the first 6 months of life standardized to WHO growth standards. Weight change was regressed on each of 168 metabolites (acylcarnitines, lysophosphatidylcholines, sphingomyelins, and amino acids). Metabolites significant after Bonferroni's correction were tested as predictors of later overweight/obesity. Among the overall 19 significant metabolites, 4 were associated with rapid growth and 15 were associated with a less-than-ideal weight change. After adjusting for feeding group, only the lysophosphatidylcholine LPCaC14:0 remained significantly associated with rapid weight gain (β = 0.18). Only LPCaC14:0 at age 6 months was predictive of overweight/obesity at age 6 years (OR 1.33; 95% CI 1.04-1.69). LPCa14:0 is strongly related to rapid growth in infancy and childhood overweight/obesity. This suggests that LPCaC14:0 levels may represent a metabolically programmed effect of infant weight gain on the later obesity risk. However, these results require confirmation by independent cohorts. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  19. Apocalypse when? Population growth and food supply in South Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenspan, A

    1994-12-01

    Food demands for staple grains are expected to almost double over the next 25 years in South Asia, due to population growth and increased standards of living. Trends in the mid-1990s suggest that neither pessimism nor optimism prevails in the region. There is wide diversity among and within countries. Trends suggest that population densities are already the highest in the world, and the amount of arable land is declining. Urban growth has moved onto farm land and farmers have been pushed onto more marginal lands or have become landless. Land intensification has produced mixed results. Cereal production per capita has increased since the 1950s in India, with about 75% of the region's population, but Pakistan's increases were not sustained into the 1980s. Average daily caloric intake per person in the region of 2214 is below the level in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Bangladesh, levels are particularly worrisome at 2037. The environmental impact has not been easily quantified, but experts have suggested that pressure on farm land has contributed to loss of soil fertility and water resource loss. Further intensification of farming is feasible, but difficult and more expensive than in the past. Regardless of production problems and solutions, there is also the very real problem of poor food distribution and lack of purchasing power. Farm management skills must be utilized, if environmental degradation is to be avoided. There is the added unknown of what climate changes will occur and how agricultural production will be affected. The policy implications are that increased food production must be made a political priority. Policies must support agricultural research into improved technologies and support distribution of technological advances to a wider number of farmers. Rural infrastructures such as roads, market outlets, and credit agencies must be established. Policies must be removed that disadvantage farmers, such as inappropriate subsidies for irrigation water

  20. A phenomenological theory of world population growth and global problems

    CERN Document Server

    Kapitza, Sergei P

    1996-01-01

    Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant one. To describe this process in its past and project it into the future a mathematical model is worked out. It treats the world population as an entity, seen as an open and evolv The approach is phenomenological and growth over very many generations is assumed to be selfsimilar and described by scaling. In terms of kinetics, the growth rate is proportional to the square of the total number of people and the nonlinear hyperbol of all mechanisms that contribute to our development in a collective interactive process. The model gives an estimate of the beginning of human evolution c.a. 4.4 million years ago and of the total number of people who ever lived c.a. 100 billion. In the scope of the model large scale cycles defined by history and anthropology are shown to be uniformly spaced in time on a logarithmic scale, expressing and inherent periodicity. As we approach the present, this progression of cycles is now termo transition. This is a s...

  1. Growth of Ni2Si by rapid thermal annealing: Kinetics and moving species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, E.; Lim, B. S.; Nicolet, M.-A.; Natan, M.

    1987-10-01

    The growth kinetics is characterized and the moving species is identified for the formation of Ni2Si by Rapid Thermal Annealing (RTA) of sequentially deposited Si and Ni films on a Si substrate. The interfacial Ni2Si layer grows as the square root of time, indicating that the suicide growth process is diffusion-limited. The activation energy is 1.25±0.2 eV in the RTA temperature range of 350 450° C. The results extend those of conventional steady-state furnace annealing quite fittingly, and a common activation energy of 1.3±0.2 eV is deduced from 225° to 450° C. The marker experiment shows that Ni is the dominant moving species during Ni2Si formation by RTA, as is the case for furnace annealing. It is concluded that the two annealing techniques induce the same growth mechanisms in Ni2Si formation.

  2. Rapid thermal chemical vapor deposition growth of nanometer-thin SiC on silicon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steckl, A.J.; Li, J.P. (Univ. of Cincinnati, OH (United States))

    1992-08-28

    Rapid thermal chemical vapor deposition growth of [beta]-SiC ultrathin films on Si (100) was achieved using the carbonization reaction of the silicon substrate with C[sub 3]H[sub 8] gas. Growth rates of 0.5-2 nm s[sup -1] have been achieved at 1100-1300degC using C[sub 3]H[sub 8] flow rates of 7-9 standard cm[sup 3] min[sup -1]. X-ray and electron diffraction indicate single-crystal growth. Therefore nanometer-scale SiC films can be grown by controlling the reaction time to a few seconds. The activation energy at atmospheric pressure is 3.12 eV. The growth rate was found to decrease significantly at higher C[sub 3]H[sub 8] flow rates, leading to films of constant thickness beyond a certain critical reaction time. Using this regime of self-limiting growth, SiC films of 3-5 nm have been grown with relatively little sensitivity to the growth time. (orig.).

  3. Anthropometric growth study of the ear in a Chinese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shichun; Li, Dianguo; Liu, Zhenzhong; Wang, Yibiao; Liu, Lei; Jiang, Duyin; Pan, Bo

    2017-10-20

    A large number of anthropometric studies of the auricle have been reported in different nations, but little data were available in the Chinese population. The aim of this study was to analyze growth changes in the ear by measuring the width and length of ears in a Chinese population. A total of 480 participants were enrolled and classified into 1-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 9-, 12-, 14-, and 18-year groups (half were boys and half were girls in each group). Ear length, ear width, body weight, and body length were measured and recorded; ear index was calculated according to ear length and ear width. The growth of auricle and differences between genders were analyzed. Growth of ear in relation to body height and weight and the degree of emphasis on the length and width of the auricle were also analyzed. Ear length and width increased with age. Ear length achieved its mature size in both 14-year-old males and females. Ear width reached its mature size in males at 7 years and in females at 5 years. Different trends of ear index were shown between males and females. People in this population paid more attention to the length than the width of the auricle. The data indicated that ear development followed increase in age. There were gender and ethnic difference in the development of ear. These results may have potential implications for the diagnosis of congenital malformations, syndromes, and planning of ear reconstruction surgery. Copyright © 2017 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Population growth and the demographic transition in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wortham, R A

    1993-06-01

    Population growth is traced in Kenya for the periods 1895 to 1948 and 1948 to 1992. Analysis of Kenya's recent fertility patterns is based on the processes in demographic transition and on studies by Petersen, Caldwell, and Chenais. The transition stages are identified as follows: the predevelopment stage during 1895-1921, the underdeveloped stage during 1921-77, the stabilization of the high rate of natural population increase during 1977-90, and the entrance into the transition or developing stage from the 1980s to the present. The expectation is that the transition will continue to 2010. A complete transition by 2025 requires an annual population growth rate of 1%. Fertility patterns during 1977-89 revealed a reduction in the total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.2 children. The TFR in 1989 among currently married women aged 15-49 years with no formal education was 7.2 children. Women with secondary education had a TFR of 4.9 children. Urban women had a TFR of 4.8 children, while rural women had a TFR of 7.1 children. The ideal family size in 1989 was 4.4 children, which is a decline of 1.4 children from 1984. Ideal family size among currently married women aged 20-24 years was 3.9. Structural changes occurred since 1967, whereby annual economic growth rates exceeded population growth rates. High fertility levels are supported by the traditional role of women in satisfying subsistence needs, and the use of children for farm labor, social security, and access to the land. Family structural changes (an increased number of households headed by females) may lead to lower fertility because of the high costs of child rearing. The declines among urban polygamous marriages and women with no formal education may not reduce fertility. Decreased rotation of intercourse among polygynous women could mean increases in fertility. Monogamous unions tend to have higher fertility than polygamous unions. Marriage may have a lesser impact on fertility regulation, if marriage age and the

  5. An equivalence theorem concerning population growth in a variable environment

    OpenAIRE

    Ray Redheffer; Vance, Richard R.

    2003-01-01

    We give conditions under which two solutions x and y of the Kolmogorov equation x˙=xf(t,x) satisfy limy(t)/x(t)=1 as t→∞. This conclusion is important for two reasons: it shows that the long-time behavior of the population is independent of the initial condition and it applies to ecological systems in which the coefficients are time dependent. Our first application is to an equation of Weissing and Huisman for growth and competition in a light gradient. Our second application is to a nonauton...

  6. The relationship between population ageing and the economic growth in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brendan, Lo Rick; Sek, Siok Kun

    2017-08-01

    Asia has witnessed robust economic growth since the 1960s. Today, emerging markets in Asia have managed to maintain rapid growth even when the world's main economies suffer from debt and banking crises. However, declining total fertility rate, increasing life expectancy, continuous change of birth and death patterns, and increasing share of old age population in the age distribution in Asia exert significant pressure on its economies. This paper analyses the relationship between population ageing and economic growth using 2 different panels of countries; one Asian and another the from the oldest countries worldwide between 1970 and 2014. The analysis is based on the Auto Regression Distributed Lag models. The MG (Mean Group) and PMG (Pooled Mean Group) estimations are applied in this analysis. The Hausman Test is conducted to decide between the MG and PMG estimators. We find that ageing will negatively affect the economy in the long run. The growing number of youths will initially have a negative effect on the economy but would eventually lead to a positive growth in the future. The old age dependency ratio has yet to have affect the Asian economy but is expected eventually to impose a negative effect as seen in the oldest nations of the world.

  7. Social policy and population growth in South-East Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    You Poh Seng Rao, B; Shantakumar, G

    1974-01-01

    Social and population policies are considered for the 10 countries comprising Southeast Asia--Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, North Vietnam, and South Vietnam. All but Singapore have high fertility rates and Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos and the two Vietnams have high mortality rates also. Government expenditures for education and social security systems is expanding throughout the region and it is hoped that their continued growth will contribute substantially to the effective implementation of population policies. Population policies in the 5 countries which have them are discussed. These are Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. It is noted, however, that declaration of policy is but the first step. Strategies and programs differ from one country to the next and depend very much on the stage of development, level of literacy, degree of urbanization, and other factors. Family planning activities generally are endogenous to urban social systems but exogenous to rural social systems. Thus, the rural elite has a large role to play in making population policies an integral part of rural life. The possibility is considered of developing workable incentive packages integrating health, education, and social security benefits with suitable emphasis on fertility reduction.

  8. Population growth of Yellowstone grizzly bears: Uncertainty and future monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, R.B.; White, Gary C.; Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of the US Rocky Mountains have recently increased in numbers, but remain vulnerable due to isolation from other populations and predicted reductions in favored food resources. Harris et al. (2006) projected how this population might fare in the future under alternative survival rates, and in doing so estimated the rate of population growth, 1983–2002. We address issues that remain from that earlier work: (1) the degree of uncertainty surrounding our estimates of the rate of population change (λ); (2) the effect of correlation among demographic parameters on these estimates; and (3) how a future monitoring system using counts of females accompanied by cubs might usefully differentiate between short-term, expected, and inconsequential fluctuations versus a true change in system state. We used Monte Carlo re-sampling of beta distributions derived from the demographic parameters used by Harris et al. (2006) to derive distributions of λ during 1983–2002 given our sampling uncertainty. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were 0.972–1.096 (assuming females with unresolved fates died) and 1.008–1.115 (with unresolved females censored at last contact). We used well-supported models of Haroldson et al. (2006) and Schwartz et al. (2006a,b,c) to assess the strength of correlations among demographic processes and the effect of omitting them in projection models. Incorporating correlations among demographic parameters yielded point estimates of λ that were nearly identical to those from the earlier model that omitted correlations, but yielded wider confidence intervals surrounding λ. Finally, we suggest that fitting linear and quadratic curves to the trend suggested by the estimated number of females with cubs in the ecosystem, and using AICc model weights to infer population sizes and λ provides an objective means to monitoring approximate population trajectories in addition to demographic

  9. Rapid structural and compositional change in an old-growth subtropical forest: using plant traits to identify probable drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malizia, Agustina; Easdale, Tomás A; Grau, H Ricardo

    2013-01-01

    Recent studies have shown directional changes in old-growth tropical forests, but changes are complex and diverse, and their drivers unclear. Here, we report rapid net structural and compositional changes in an old-growth subtropical forest and we assess the functional nature of these changes to test hypothetical drivers including recovery from past disturbances, reduction in ungulate browsing, CO2 fertilization, and increases in rainfall and temperature. The study relies on 15 years of demographic monitoring within 8 ha of subtropical montane forest in Argentina. Between 1992 and 2007, stem density markedly increased by 50% (12 stems ha(-1) y(-1)) and basal area by 6% (0.13 m(2) ha(-1) y(-1)). Increased stem density resulted from enhanced recruitment of understory treelets (Piper tucumanum, Eugenia uniflora, Allophylus edulis) into small size classes. Among 27 common tree species, net population growth was negatively correlated with maximum tree size and longevity, and positively correlated with leaf size and leaf nutrient content, especially so when initial population size was controlled for. Changes were inconsistent with predictions derived from past disturbances (no increase in shade-tolerant or long-lived late-succesional species), rainfall or temperature increase (no increase in evergreen or deciduous species, respectively). However, the increase in nutrient-rich soft-leaved species was consistent with exclusion of large herbivores two decades before monitoring started; and CO2 fertilization could help explain the disproportionate increase in small stems. Reductions in populations of large vertebrates have been observed in many otherwise undisturbed tropical forests, and our results suggest they can have important structural and functional repercussions in these forests.

  10. Rapid structural and compositional change in an old-growth subtropical forest: using plant traits to identify probable drivers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agustina Malizia

    Full Text Available Recent studies have shown directional changes in old-growth tropical forests, but changes are complex and diverse, and their drivers unclear. Here, we report rapid net structural and compositional changes in an old-growth subtropical forest and we assess the functional nature of these changes to test hypothetical drivers including recovery from past disturbances, reduction in ungulate browsing, CO2 fertilization, and increases in rainfall and temperature. The study relies on 15 years of demographic monitoring within 8 ha of subtropical montane forest in Argentina. Between 1992 and 2007, stem density markedly increased by 50% (12 stems ha(-1 y(-1 and basal area by 6% (0.13 m(2 ha(-1 y(-1. Increased stem density resulted from enhanced recruitment of understory treelets (Piper tucumanum, Eugenia uniflora, Allophylus edulis into small size classes. Among 27 common tree species, net population growth was negatively correlated with maximum tree size and longevity, and positively correlated with leaf size and leaf nutrient content, especially so when initial population size was controlled for. Changes were inconsistent with predictions derived from past disturbances (no increase in shade-tolerant or long-lived late-succesional species, rainfall or temperature increase (no increase in evergreen or deciduous species, respectively. However, the increase in nutrient-rich soft-leaved species was consistent with exclusion of large herbivores two decades before monitoring started; and CO2 fertilization could help explain the disproportionate increase in small stems. Reductions in populations of large vertebrates have been observed in many otherwise undisturbed tropical forests, and our results suggest they can have important structural and functional repercussions in these forests.

  11. New insights from coral growth band studies in an era of rapid environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lough, Janice M.; Cooper, Timothy F.

    2011-10-01

    The rapid formation of calcium carbonate coral skeletons (calcification) fuelled by the coral-algal symbiosis is the backbone of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, the efficacy of calcification is measurably influenced by the sea's physico-chemical environment, which is changing rapidly. Warming oceans have already led to increased frequency and severity of coral bleaching, and ocean acidification has a demonstrable potential to cause reduced rates of calcification. There is now general agreement that ocean warming and acidification are attributable to human activities increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and the large part of the extra carbon dioxide (the main greenhouse gas) that is absorbed by oceans. Certain massive corals provide historical perspectives on calcification through the presence of dateable annual density banding patterns. Each band is a page in an environmental archive that reveals past responses of growth (linear extension, skeletal density and calcification rate) and provides a basis for prediction of future of coral growth. A second major line of research focuses on the measurement of various geochemical tracers incorporated into the growth bands, allowing the reconstruction of past marine climate conditions (i.e. palaeoclimatology). Here, we focus on the structural properties of the annual density bands themselves (viz. density; linear extension), exploring their utility in providing both perspectives on the past and pointers to the future of calcification on coral reefs. We conclude that these types of coral growth records, though relatively neglected in recent years compared to the geochemical studies, remain immensely valuable aids to unravelling the consequences of anthropogenic climate change on coral reefs. Moreover, an understanding of coral growth processes is an essential pre-requisite for proper interpretation of studies of geochemical tracers in corals.

  12. Large plasma-membrane depolarization precedes rapid blue-light-induced growth inhibition in cucumber

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spalding, E. P.; Cosgrove, D. J.

    1989-01-01

    Blue-light (BL)-induced suppression of elongation of etiolated Cucumis sativus L. hypocotyls began after a 30-s lag time, which was halved by increasing the fluence rate from 10 to 100 micromoles m-2 s-1. Prior to the growth suppression, the plasma-membrane of the irradiated cells depolarized by as much as 100 mV, then returned within 2-3 min to near its initial value. The potential difference measured with surface electrodes changed with an identical time course but opposite polarity. The lag time for the change in surface potential showed an inverse dependence on fluence rate, similar to the lag for the growth inhibition. Green light and red light caused neither the electrical response nor the rapid inhibition of growth. The depolarization by BL did not propagate to nonirradiated regions and exhibited a refractory period of about 10 min following a BL pulse. Fluence-response relationships for the electrical and growth responses provide correlational evidence that the plasma-membrane depolarization reflects an event in the transduction chain of this light-growth response.

  13. Transient growth from the continuous spectrum of a high-speed rapidly-swirling jet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samanta, Arnab; Muthiah, Gopalsamy

    2017-11-01

    We investigate the possibility for short-time transient growths involving the helical modes of a rapidly-swirling, high-speed jet that has undergone a sub-critical transition via an axisymmetric vortex breakdown. The base flow is extracted from the time-averaged measurements, consisting of the recirculation bubble and its wake. A pseudospectrum analysis complements a local normal-mode based stability analysis in identifying the continuous spectrum, which is further split into a potential and freestream spectrum, where the non-orthogonality between the former type and the existing discrete stable modes is shown to be the main origin of strong transient growths in such flows. As the swirling flow develops post the bubble collapse, this potential mode spectrum widens, increasing the importance of transient growth inside the wake region. The local transient gains calculated at the wake confirms this, where strong growths far outstrips the exponential modal growth at shorter times, especially at the higher helical orders and smaller streamwise wavenumbers. These short-time transients are likely to be a necessary first-step toward the formation of a wavemaker region at the wake of such flows, leading to their eventual spiral breakdown.

  14. Is rapid growth in Internet usage environmentally sustainable for Australia? An empirical investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salahuddin, Mohammad; Alam, Khorshed; Ozturk, Ilhan

    2016-03-01

    This study estimates the short- and long-run effects of Internet usage and economic growth on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions using annual time series macro data for Australia for the period 1985-2012. Autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bounds and Gregory-Hansen structural break cointegration tests are applied. ARDL estimates indicate no significant long-run relationship between Internet usage and CO2 emissions, which implies that the rapid growth in Internet usage is still not an environmental threat for Australia. The study further indicates that higher level of economic growth is associated with lower level of CO2 emissions; however, Internet usage and economic growth have no significant short-run relationship with CO2 emissions. Financial development has both short-run and long-run significant positive association with CO2 emissions. The findings offer support in favor of energy efficiency gains and a reduction in energy intensity in Australia. However, impulse response and variance decomposition analysis suggest that Internet usage, economic growth and financial development will continue to impact CO2 emissions in the future, and as such, this study recommends that in addition to the existing measures to combat CO2 emissions, Australia needs to exploit the potential of the Internet not only to reduce its own carbon footprint but also to utilize information and communication technology (ICT)-enabled emissions abatement potential to reduce emissions in various other sectors across the economy, such as, power, renewable energy especially in solar and wind energy, agriculture, transport and service.

  15. Prenatal exposure to traffic pollution: associations with reduced fetal growth and rapid infant weight gain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleisch, Abby F; Rifas-Shiman, Sheryl L; Koutrakis, Petros; Schwartz, Joel D; Kloog, Itai; Melly, Steven; Coull, Brent A; Zanobetti, Antonella; Gillman, Matthew W; Gold, Diane R; Oken, Emily

    2015-01-01

    Prenatal air pollution exposure inhibits fetal growth, but implications for postnatal growth are unknown. We assessed weights and lengths of US infants in the Project Viva cohort at birth and 6 months. We estimated 3rd-trimester residential air pollution exposures using spatiotemporal models. We estimated neighborhood traffic density and roadway proximity at birth address using geographic information systems. We performed linear and logistic regression adjusted for sociodemographic variables, fetal growth, and gestational age at birth. Mean birth weight-for-gestational age z-score (fetal growth) was 0.17 (standard deviation [SD] = 0.97; n = 2,114), 0- to 6-month weight-for-length gain was 0.23 z-units (SD = 1.11; n = 689), and 17% had weight-for-length ≥95th percentile at 6 months of age. Infants exposed to the highest (vs. lowest) quartile of neighborhood traffic density had lower fetal growth (-0.13 units [95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.25 to -0.01]), more rapid 0- to 6-month weight-for-length gain (0.25 units [95% CI = 0.01 to 0.49]), and higher odds of weight-for-length ≥95th percentile at 6 months (1.84 [95% CI = 1.11 to 3.05]). Neighborhood traffic density was additionally associated with an infant being in both the lowest quartile of fetal growth and the highest quartile of 0- to 6-month weight-for-length gain (Q4 vs. Q1, odds ratio = 3.01 [95% CI = 1.08 to 8.44]). Roadway proximity and 3rd-trimester black carbon exposure were similarly associated with growth outcomes. For 3rd-trimester particulate matter (PM2.5), effect estimates were in the same direction, but smaller and imprecise. Infants exposed to higher traffic-related pollution in early life may exhibit more rapid postnatal weight gain in addition to reduced fetal growth.

  16. Galaxy Zoo: evidence for rapid, recent quenching within a population of AGN host galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smethurst, R. J.; Lintott, C. J.; Simmons, B. D.; Schawinski, K.; Bamford, S. P.; Cardamone, C. N.; Kruk, S. J.; Masters, K. L.; Urry, C. M.; Willett, K. W.; Wong, O. I.

    2016-12-01

    We present a population study of the star formation history of 1244 Type 2 active galactic nuclei (AGN) host galaxies, compared to 6107 inactive galaxies. A Bayesian method is used to determine individual galaxy star formation histories, which are then collated to visualize the distribution for quenching and quenched galaxies within each population. We find evidence for some of the Type 2 AGN host galaxies having undergone a rapid drop in their star formation rate within the last 2 Gyr. AGN feedback is therefore important at least for this population of galaxies. This result is not seen for the quenching and quenched inactive galaxies whose star formation histories are dominated by the effects of downsizing at earlier epochs, a secondary effect for the AGN host galaxies. We show that histories of rapid quenching cannot account fully for the quenching of all the star formation in a galaxy's lifetime across the population of quenched AGN host galaxies, and that histories of slower quenching, attributed to secular (non-violent) evolution, are also key in their evolution. This is in agreement with recent results showing that both merger-driven and non-merger processes are contributing to the co-evolution of galaxies and supermassive black holes. The availability of gas in the reservoirs of a galaxy, and its ability to be replenished, appear to be the key drivers behind this co-evolution.

  17. Rapid Growth of Dermatofibrosarcoma Protuberans Associated with Bilateral Adrenalectomy for Cushing’s Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadanori Furudate

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available We describe a 50-year-old Japanese patient with dermatofibrosarcoma protuberans (DFSP rapidly growing after bilateral adrenalectomy for Cushing’s syndrome that reduced the serum level of cortisol from 17.1 to 0.8 mg/dl. It is known that glucocorticoids decrease the transcriptions of the COL1A1 gene and the PDGFB gene, which is under the direct control of the COL1A1 gene in most DFSP. Therefore, the hypersecretion of glucocorticoids in Cushing’s syndrome might suppress the development of DFSP. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first case of rapid growth of DFSP that may be associated with bilateral adrenalectomy for Cushing’s syndrome.

  18. Six rapid assessments of alcohol and other substance use in populations displaced by conflict

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adelekan Moruf

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Substance use among populations displaced by conflict is a neglected area of public health. Alcohol, khat, benzodiazepine, opiate, and other substance use have been documented among a range of displaced populations, with wide-reaching health and social impacts. Changing agendas in humanitarian response-including increased prominence of mental health and chronic illness-have so far failed to be translated into meaningful interventions for substance use. Methods Studies were conducted from 2006 to 2008 in six different settings of protracted displacement, three in Africa (Kenya, Liberia, northern Uganda and three in Asia (Iran, Pakistan, and Thailand. We used intervention-oriented qualitative Rapid Assessment and Response methods, adapted from two decades of experience among non-displaced populations. The main sources of data were individual and group interviews conducted with a culturally representative (non-probabilistic sample of community members and service providers. Results Widespread use of alcohol, particularly artisanally-produced alcohol, in Kenya, Liberia, Uganda, and Thailand, and opiates in Iran and Pakistan was believed by participants to be linked to a range of health, social and protection problems, including illness, injury (intentional and unintentional, gender-based violence, risky behaviour for HIV and other sexually transmitted infection and blood-borne virus transmission, as well as detrimental effects to household economy. Displacement experiences, including dispossession, livelihood restriction, hopelessness and uncertain future may make communities particularly vulnerable to substance use and its impact, and changing social norms and networks (including the surrounding population may result in changed - and potentially more harmful-patterns of use. Limited access to services, including health services, and exclusion from relevant host population programmes, may exacerbate the harmful consequences

  19. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-07-14

    The primary goal of this research project was to evaluate the response of Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) to the potential effects of changes in the amount of available habitat due to human influences such as ground water pumping, barriers to movement, and extirpation of Moapa dace from the mainstem Muddy River. To understand how these factors affect Moapa dace populations and to provide a tool to guide recovery actions, we developed a stochastic model to simulate Moapa dace population dynamics. Specifically, we developed an individual based model (IBM) to incorporate the critical components that drive Moapa dace population dynamics. Our model is composed of several interlinked submodels that describe changes in Moapa dace habitat as translated into carrying capacity, the influence of carrying capacity on demographic rates of dace, and the consequent effect on equilibrium population sizes. The model is spatially explicit and represents the stream network as eight discrete stream segments. The model operates at a monthly time step to incorporate seasonally varying reproduction. Growth rates of individuals vary among stream segments, with growth rates increasing along a headwater to mainstem gradient. Movement and survival of individuals are driven by density-dependent relationships that are influenced by the carrying capacity of each stream segment.

  20. The population genomics of rapid adaptation: disentangling signatures of selection and demography in white sands lizards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurent, Stefan; Pfeifer, Susanne P; Settles, Matthew L; Hunter, Samuel S; Hardwick, Kayla M; Ormond, Louise; Sousa, Vitor C; Jensen, Jeffrey D; Rosenblum, Erica Bree

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the process of adaptation during rapid environmental change remains one of the central focal points of evolutionary biology. The recently formed White Sands system of southern New Mexico offers an outstanding example of rapid adaptation, with a variety of species having rapidly evolved blanched forms on the dunes that contrast with their close relatives in the surrounding dark soil habitat. In this study, we focus on two of the White Sands lizard species, Sceloporus cowlesi and Aspidoscelis inornata, for which previous research has linked mutations in the melanocortin-1 receptor gene (Mc1r) to blanched coloration. We sampled populations both on and off the dunes and used a custom sequence capture assay based on probed fosmid libraries to obtain >50 kb of sequence around Mc1r and hundreds of other random genomic locations. We then used model-based statistical inference methods to describe the demographic and adaptive history characterizing the colonization of White Sands. We identified a number of similarities between the two focal species, including strong evidence of selection in the blanched populations in the Mc1r region. We also found important differences between the species, suggesting different colonization times, different genetic architecture underlying the blanched phenotype and different ages of the beneficial alleles. Finally, the beneficial allele is dominant in S. cowlesi and recessive in A. inornata, allowing for a rare empirical test of theoretically expected patterns of selective sweeps under these differing models. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. World population growth, family planning, and American foreign policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharpless, J

    1995-01-01

    The US decision since the 1960s to link foreign policy with family planning and population control is noteworthy for its intention to change the demographic structure of foreign countries and the magnitude of the initiative. The current population ideologies are part of the legacy of 19th century views on science, morality, and political economy. Strong constraints were placed on US foreign policy since World War II, particularly due to presumptions about the role of developing countries in Cold War ideology. Domestic debates revolved around issues of feminism, birth control, abortion, and family political issues. Since the 1960s, environmental degradation and resource depletion were an added global dimension of US population issues. Between 1935 and 1958 birth control movements evolved from the ideologies of utopian socialists, Malthusians, women's rights activists, civil libertarians, and advocates of sexual freedom. There was a shift from acceptance of birth control to questions about the role of national government in supporting distribution of birth control. Immediately postwar the debates over birth control were outside political circles. The concept of family planning as a middle class family issue shifted the focus from freeing women from the burdens of housework to making women more efficient housewives. Family planning could not be taken as a national policy concern without justification as a major issue, a link to national security, belief in the success of intervention, and a justifiable means of inclusion in public policy. US government involvement began with agricultural education, technological assistance, and economic development that would satisfy the world's growing population. Cold War politics forced population growth as an issue to be considered within the realm of foreign policy and diplomacy. US government sponsored family planning was enthusiastic during 1967-74 but restrained during the 1980s. The 1990s has been an era of redefinition of

  2. The impact of rapid economic growth and globalization on zinc nutrition in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwun, In-Sook; Do, Mi-Sook; Chung, Hae-Rang; Kim, Yang Ha; Beattie, John H

    2009-08-01

    Zn deficiency may be widespread in Asian countries such as South Korea. However, dietary habits have changed in response to rapid economic growth and globalization. Zn nutrition in South Koreans has therefore been assessed during a period (1969-1998) of unprecedented economic growth. Cross-sectional food consumption data from the Korean National Nutrition Survey Reports (KNNSR) of South Korea at four separate time points (1969, 1978, 1988 and 1998) were used to calculate Zn, Ca and phytate intakes using various food composition tables, databases and literature values. Nutrient values in local foods were cited from their analysed values. Average Zn intake was 5.8, 4.8 and 5.3 mg/d for 1969, 1978 and 1988 respectively, increasing to 7.3 mg/d in 1998 (73 % of the Korean Dietary Reference Intake). The phytate:Zn molar ratio decreased from 21 to 8 during the study period. Dietary Zn depletion due to marked decreases in cereal consumption, particularly barley which has a low Zn bioavailability, was counterbalanced by marked increases in the consumption of meat and fish, which are also Zn-rich foods. Reduced phytate consumption coincident with increased Zn intake suggests that Zn bioavailability also improved, particularly by 1998. Although total Zn intake was not greatly affected over the initial period of economic growth in South Korea (1969-1988), Zn contributions from different food sources changed markedly and both Zn intake and potential bioavailability were improved by 1998. The study may have implications for Zn nutrition in other Asian countries currently experiencing rapid economic growth.

  3. Emerging infectious disease leads to rapid population declines of common British birds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert A Robinson

    Full Text Available Emerging infectious diseases are increasingly cited as threats to wildlife, livestock and humans alike. They can threaten geographically isolated or critically endangered wildlife populations; however, relatively few studies have clearly demonstrated the extent to which emerging diseases can impact populations of common wildlife species. Here, we report the impact of an emerging protozoal disease on British populations of greenfinch Carduelis chloris and chaffinch Fringilla coelebs, two of the most common birds in Britain. Morphological and molecular analyses showed this to be due to Trichomonas gallinae. Trichomonosis emerged as a novel fatal disease of finches in Britain in 2005 and rapidly became epidemic within greenfinch, and to a lesser extent chaffinch, populations in 2006. By 2007, breeding populations of greenfinches and chaffinches in the geographic region of highest disease incidence had decreased by 35% and 21% respectively, representing mortality in excess of half a million birds. In contrast, declines were less pronounced or absent in these species in regions where the disease was found in intermediate or low incidence. Also, populations of dunnock Prunella modularis, which similarly feeds in gardens, but in which T. gallinae was rarely recorded, did not decline. This is the first trichomonosis epidemic reported in the scientific literature to negatively impact populations of free-ranging non-columbiform species, and such levels of mortality and decline due to an emerging infectious disease are unprecedented in British wild bird populations. This disease emergence event demonstrates the potential for a protozoan parasite to jump avian host taxonomic groups with dramatic effect over a short time period.

  4. Emerging Infectious Disease Leads to Rapid Population Declines of Common British Birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toms, Mike P.; Peck, Kirsi M.; Kirkwood, James K.; Chantrey, Julian; Clatworthy, Innes R.; Evans, Andy D.; Hughes, Laura A.; Hutchinson, Oliver C.; John, Shinto K.; Pennycott, Tom W.; Perkins, Matthew W.; Rowley, Peter S.; Simpson, Vic R.; Tyler, Kevin M.; Cunningham, Andrew A.

    2010-01-01

    Emerging infectious diseases are increasingly cited as threats to wildlife, livestock and humans alike. They can threaten geographically isolated or critically endangered wildlife populations; however, relatively few studies have clearly demonstrated the extent to which emerging diseases can impact populations of common wildlife species. Here, we report the impact of an emerging protozoal disease on British populations of greenfinch Carduelis chloris and chaffinch Fringilla coelebs, two of the most common birds in Britain. Morphological and molecular analyses showed this to be due to Trichomonas gallinae. Trichomonosis emerged as a novel fatal disease of finches in Britain in 2005 and rapidly became epidemic within greenfinch, and to a lesser extent chaffinch, populations in 2006. By 2007, breeding populations of greenfinches and chaffinches in the geographic region of highest disease incidence had decreased by 35% and 21% respectively, representing mortality in excess of half a million birds. In contrast, declines were less pronounced or absent in these species in regions where the disease was found in intermediate or low incidence. Also, populations of dunnock Prunella modularis, which similarly feeds in gardens, but in which T. gallinae was rarely recorded, did not decline. This is the first trichomonosis epidemic reported in the scientific literature to negatively impact populations of free-ranging non-columbiform species, and such levels of mortality and decline due to an emerging infectious disease are unprecedented in British wild bird populations. This disease emergence event demonstrates the potential for a protozoan parasite to jump avian host taxonomic groups with dramatic effect over a short time period. PMID:20805869

  5. An equivalence theorem concerning population growth in a variable environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ray Redheffer

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available We give conditions under which two solutions x and y of the Kolmogorov equation x˙=xf(t,x satisfy limy(t/x(t=1 as t→∞. This conclusion is important for two reasons: it shows that the long-time behavior of the population is independent of the initial condition and it applies to ecological systems in which the coefficients are time dependent. Our first application is to an equation of Weissing and Huisman for growth and competition in a light gradient. Our second application is to a nonautonomous generalization of the Turner-Bradley-Kirk-Pruitt equation, which even before generalization, includes several problems of ecological interest.

  6. Rapid Decrease in Populations of Wild Ring-Tailed Lemurs (Lemur catta) in Madagascar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaFleur, Marni; Clarke, Tara A; Reuter, Kim; Schaeffer, Toby

    2016-01-01

    Lemurs are the most threatened group of mammals on earth. Lemur catta (ring-tailed lemur) represents one of the most iconic lemur species and faces numerous anthropogenic threats in the wild. In this study, we present population estimates from 32 sites across the range of L. catta, collected from primary and secondary data sources, to assess the number of ring-tailed lemurs left in the wild. We estimate that there are approximately 2,220 individual L. catta remaining in the 32 sites considered. We note local extinctions of populations of L. catta in at least 12 of the 32 sites examined, and that significantly more extinctions occurred in areas without some form of protection. This decrease in extant populations could represent a decrease of more than 95% of all ring-tailed lemurs in Madagascar since the year 2000. While these results should be considered preliminary, we stress the rapid decline of the species and note that habitat loss, bushmeat hunting and the illegal pet trade are driving populations to local extinction. Based on the data presented here, urgent and immediate funding and conservation action are crucial to ensure the viability of the remaining wild populations of ring-tailed lemurs. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  7. The problem of population and growth: a review of the literature from Malthus to contemporary models of endogenous population and endogenous growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehrlich, I; Lui, F

    1997-01-01

    This review traces the evolution of literature on population and economic growth through the main paradigms suggested to explain the observed covariation of per capita income and population levels (or their rates of growth) over time and space, and determine which public policies will improve the human condition. As the main paradigms evolved, key variables were progressively treated as endogenous (instead of exogenous) to the growth process. After the introduction, section 2 looks at the "classical model" of Malthusian population theory and its refinements. Section 3 identifies empirical data that bears on the secular and cross-sectional association between levels of rates of growth of population and per capita income. The inconsistency of these data with the classical model helps explain declining interest in this model over time and increased interest in a more systematic type of population and growth theory. The beginning of this new interest is traced in section 4 with a look at the "neo-classical growth model" and the reformulated theory of population, which was based on Becker's work on fertility behavior. The first line of inquiry branching from these theoretical works (section 5) treats population as an endogenous variable in static and dynamic settings. The second line of inquiry (section 6) analyzes population and growth within a unified model of growth and development. In section 7, recent studies of key policy issues (population control policies, mandatory social security schemes) are surveyed. The concluding section notes that contemporary research must face the challenge of providing additional insights into longevity as an aspect of economic growth and development and of developing a model of endogenous population and economic growth based on heterogeneous agents.

  8. Grassland ecology and population growth: striking a balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, D; Duan, C; Zhang, D

    2000-06-01

    Degradation of forest and grasslands in western China attributes to the soil erosion and desertification in the country. Researchers have established that the primary reason for the degradation of grasslands is overgrazing, which in turn is caused by a number of factors, including over-population and over-reliance on animal husbandry. In addition, the existing administrative system has also proved ineffective in ensuring sustainable development. On contrary, many local governments even encourage exploitative development of grassland; thus, localities opened up grassland for growing crops in an effort to increase income. According to estimates, degraded grassland accounts for more than one-third of utilizable acreage and another one-third suffers from a profusion of rats and pests. To redress the situation, central government should implement strategies in achieving sustainable development, such as providing banking and tax incentives for the development of the secondary and tertiary industries, and supporting education and training of youths from herding areas. Moreover, government should increase spending on infrastructural construction and ecological preservation. Finally, the family planning program needs to be enforced to control population growth and improve the quality of peoples¿ lives.

  9. Effects of Sample Size on Estimates of Population Growth Rates Calculated with Matrix Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiske, Ian J.; Bruna, Emilio M.; Bolker, Benjamin M.

    2008-01-01

    Background Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (λ) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of λ–Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of λ due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of λ. Methodology/Principal Findings Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating λ for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of λ with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. Conclusions/Significance We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities. PMID:18769483

  10. Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian J Fiske

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5, and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high

  11. Blocking rapid ice crystal growth through nonbasal plane adsorption of antifreeze proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olijve, Luuk L C; Meister, Konrad; DeVries, Arthur L; Duman, John G; Guo, Shuaiqi; Bakker, Huib J; Voets, Ilja K

    2016-04-05

    Antifreeze proteins (AFPs) are a unique class of proteins that bind to growing ice crystal surfaces and arrest further ice growth. AFPs have gained a large interest for their use in antifreeze formulations for water-based materials, such as foods, waterborne paints, and organ transplants. Instead of commonly used colligative antifreezes such as salts and alcohols, the advantage of using AFPs as an additive is that they do not alter the physicochemical properties of the water-based material. Here, we report the first comprehensive evaluation of thermal hysteresis (TH) and ice recrystallization inhibition (IRI) activity of all major classes of AFPs using cryoscopy, sonocrystallization, and recrystallization assays. The results show that TH activities determined by cryoscopy and sonocrystallization differ markedly, and that TH and IRI activities are not correlated. The absence of a distinct correlation in antifreeze activity points to a mechanistic difference in ice growth inhibition by the different classes of AFPs: blocking fast ice growth requires rapid nonbasal plane adsorption, whereas basal plane adsorption is only relevant at long annealing times and at small undercooling. These findings clearly demonstrate that biomimetic analogs of antifreeze (glyco)proteins should be tailored to the specific requirements of the targeted application.

  12. Rapid regulation of leaf photosynthesis, carbohydrate status and leaf area expansion to maintain growth in irregular light environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, Katrine Heinsvig

    2012-01-01

    to maintain carbohydrate status and growth in unpredictable light environments. Our recent results show rapid regulation of photosynthesis and leaf carbohydrate status to maintain growth and light interception in dynamic light environments when campanula, rose and chrysanthemum were grown in a cost...

  13. Rapid global expansion of the fungal disease chytridiomycosis into declining and healthy amphibian populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy Y James

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The fungal disease chytridiomycosis, caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, is enigmatic because it occurs globally in both declining and apparently healthy (non-declining amphibian populations. This distribution has fueled debate concerning whether, in sites where it has recently been found, the pathogen was introduced or is endemic. In this study, we addressed the molecular population genetics of a global collection of fungal strains from both declining and healthy amphibian populations using DNA sequence variation from 17 nuclear loci and a large fragment from the mitochondrial genome. We found a low rate of DNA polymorphism, with only two sequence alleles detected at each locus, but a high diversity of diploid genotypes. Half of the loci displayed an excess of heterozygous genotypes, consistent with a primarily clonal mode of reproduction. Despite the absence of obvious sex, genotypic diversity was high (44 unique genotypes out of 59 strains. We provide evidence that the observed genotypic variation can be generated by loss of heterozygosity through mitotic recombination. One strain isolated from a bullfrog possessed as much allelic diversity as the entire global sample, suggesting the current epidemic can be traced back to the outbreak of a single clonal lineage. These data are consistent with the current chytridiomycosis epidemic resulting from a novel pathogen undergoing a rapid and recent range expansion. The widespread occurrence of the same lineage in both healthy and declining populations suggests that the outcome of the disease is contingent on environmental factors and host resistance.

  14. Why Does Population Aging Matter So Much for Asia? Population Aging, Economic Security and Economic Growth in Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Sang-Hyop; Mason, Andrew; Park, Donghyun

    2011-01-01

    Asia as a whole is experiencing a rapid demographic transition toward older population structures. Within this broader region-wide trend, there is considerable heterogeneity, with different countries at different stages of the demographic transition. In this paper, we document Asia’s population aging, describe the region’s old-age support systems, and draw out the regional socioeconomic implications of population aging and old-age support systems. Population aging gives rise to two fundamenta...

  15. Validity and feasibility of a satellite imagery-based method for rapid estimation of displaced populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Checchi Francesco

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimating the size of forcibly displaced populations is key to documenting their plight and allocating sufficient resources to their assistance, but is often not done, particularly during the acute phase of displacement, due to methodological challenges and inaccessibility. In this study, we explored the potential use of very high resolution satellite imagery to remotely estimate forcibly displaced populations. Methods Our method consisted of multiplying (i manual counts of assumed residential structures on a satellite image and (ii estimates of the mean number of people per structure (structure occupancy obtained from publicly available reports. We computed population estimates for 11 sites in Bangladesh, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Kenya and Mozambique (six refugee camps, three internally displaced persons’ camps and two urban neighbourhoods with a mixture of residents and displaced ranging in population from 1,969 to 90,547, and compared these to “gold standard” reference population figures from census or other robust methods. Results Structure counts by independent analysts were reasonably consistent. Between one and 11 occupancy reports were available per site and most of these reported people per household rather than per structure. The imagery-based method had a precision relative to reference population figures of Conclusions In settings with clearly distinguishable individual structures, the remote, imagery-based method had reasonable accuracy for the purposes of rapid estimation, was simple and quick to implement, and would likely perform better in more current application. However, it may have insurmountable limitations in settings featuring connected buildings or shelters, a complex pattern of roofs and multi-level buildings. Based on these results, we discuss possible ways forward for the method’s development.

  16. Rapid growth of black holes in massive star-forming galaxies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, D M; Smail, I; Bauer, F E; Chapman, S C; Blain, A W; Brandt, W N; Ivison, R J

    2005-04-07

    The tight relationship between the masses of black holes and galaxy spheroids in nearby galaxies implies a causal connection between the growth of these two components. Optically luminous quasars host the most prodigious accreting black holes in the Universe, and can account for greater than or approximately equal to 30 per cent of the total cosmological black-hole growth. As typical quasars are not, however, undergoing intense star formation and already host massive black holes (> 10(8)M(o), where M(o) is the solar mass), there must have been an earlier pre-quasar phase when these black holes grew (mass range approximately (10(6)-10(8))M(o)). The likely signature of this earlier stage is simultaneous black-hole growth and star formation in distant (redshift z > 1; >8 billion light years away) luminous galaxies. Here we report ultra-deep X-ray observations of distant star-forming galaxies that are bright at submillimetre wavelengths. We find that the black holes in these galaxies are growing almost continuously throughout periods of intense star formation. This activity appears to be more tightly associated with these galaxies than any other coeval galaxy populations. We show that the black-hole growth from these galaxies is consistent with that expected for the pre-quasar phase.

  17. SOCIAL INEQUALITY IN CHINA AS A RESULT OF THE RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Вероника Игоревна Шехурдина

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the period of openness in China, laid the foundation for more than 30 years ago, he has made remarkable progress in increasing incomes and reducing absolute poverty. However, they are caused by rising inequality. It should be noted that the rise in inequality was seen almost everywhere in the world over the past two decades. Growing dissatisfaction with the quality of economic growth is often seen in favor of certain groups more than the general population. This is clearly reflected in the growth of inequality between different groups - the rich are getting richer faster than the poor. The economic literature attributes this mainly to globalization, technological change, skills-based, and reduce the "power" of the workers. Growth model, which accompanies the last three decades to China, included a trade-off between high growth (and subsequent reduction of absolute poverty and worsening inequality. The government of China has recognized this problem and taken active steps to reduce the gap incomes and standards of living in the city and rural areas, which have already brought the first results.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-10-16

  18. Rapid growth in nitrogen dioxide pollution over Western China, 2005–2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Cui

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Western China has experienced rapid industrialization and urbanization since the implementation of the National Western Development Strategies (the "Go West" movement in 1999. This transition has affected the spatial and temporal characteristics of nitrogen dioxide (NO2 pollution. In this study, we analyze the trends and variability of tropospheric NO2 vertical column densities (VCDs from 2005 to 2013 over Western China, based on a wavelet analysis on monthly mean NO2 data derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI measurements. We focus on the anthropogenic NO2 by subtracting region-specific "background" values dominated by natural sources. After removing the background influences, we find significant anthropogenic NO2 growth over Western China between 2005 and 2013 (8.6 ± 0.9 % yr−1 on average, relative to 2005, with the largest increments (15 % yr−1 or more over parts of several city clusters. The NO2 pollution in most provincial-level regions rose rapidly from 2005 to 2011 but stabilized or declined afterwards. The NO2 trends were driven mainly by changes in anthropogenic emissions, as confirmed by a nested GEOS-Chem model simulation and a comparison with Chinese official emission statistics. The rate of NO2 growth during 2005–2013 reaches 11.3 ± 1.0 % yr−1 over Northwestern China, exceeding the rates over Southwestern China (5.9 ± 0.6 % yr−1 and the three well-known polluted regions in the east (5.3 ± 0.8 % yr−1 over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, 4.0 ± 0.6 % yr−1 over the Yangtze River Delta, and −3.3 ± 0.3 % yr−1 over the Pearl River Delta. Subsequent socioeconomic analyses suggest that the rapid NO2 growth over Northwestern China is likely related to the fast developing resource- and pollution-intensive industries along with the "Go West" movement as well as relatively weak emission controls. Further efforts should be made to alleviate NOx pollution to achieve

  19. Population Growth in the 1990s: Patterns within the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Marc

    2002-01-01

    Examines population growth during the 1990s for a variety of geographic levels including regions, divisions, states, metropolitan areas, counties, and large cities. Compares growth rates for the 1990s with earlier decades to provide an historical context for present-day trends in population growth and decline. Discusses how differential population…

  20. Strong persistent growth differences govern individual performance and population dynamics in a tropical forest understorey palm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, M.; Zuidema, P.A.; Anten, N.P.R.; Martínez-Ramos, M.

    2012-01-01

    1. Persistent variation in growth rate between individual plants can have strong effects on population dynamics as fast growers reach the reproductive size at an earlier age and thus potentially contribute more to population growth than slow growers. In tropical forests, such persistent growth

  1. Age, growth and population structure of invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) in northeast Florida using a length-based, age-structured population model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    The effective management of invasive species requires detailed understanding of the invader’s life history. This information is essential for modeling population growth and predicting rates of expansion, quantifying ecological impacts and assessing the efficacy of removal and control strategies. Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) have rapidly invaded the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea with documented negative impacts on native ecosystems. To better understand the life history of this species, we developed and validated a length-based, age-structured model to investigate age, growth and population structure in northeast Florida. The main findings of this study were: (1) lionfish exhibited rapid growth with seasonal variation in growth rates; (2) distinct cohorts were clearly identifiable in the length-frequency data, suggesting that lionfish are recruiting during a relatively short period in summer; and (3) the majority of lionfish were less than two years old with no lionfish older than three years of age, which may be the result of culling efforts as well as ontogenetic habitat shifts to deeper water. PMID:27920953

  2. Comparison of customised growth charts v. standard population ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    risk of delivering macrosomic and growth- restricted babies, with their related risks. We therefore need to predict fetal growth accurately. Routine care of an uncomplicated DM pregnancy entails fetal growth assessment per trimester. However, it is recommended that growth-restricted and LGA fetuses are followed up every ...

  3. Physical activity and health in the presence of China's economic growth: Meeting the public health challenges of the aging population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuzhong Li

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Three decades of rapid economic development in China have not only benefited millions of Chinese by improving their living standards but have also dramatically increased the number of people who are part of the country's aging population. However, economic growth has not been accompanied by sufficient attention given to important public health issues, including an increase in the incidence of chronic diseases and a decline in physical activity (PA that comes with an aging population. The rapid growth in China's older population will soon exert an impact on the nation's economy, population health status, and health behaviors, and will increase stress on its healthcare system. This review article provides a broad perspective on the impact of rapid economic development, industrialization, and urbanization on health-related behaviors, with a specific focus on PA among older adults. Specifically, the article offers an overview of the demographic context, significant public health challenges, evidence on PA and exercise interventions, and knowledge gaps and future directions for research.

  4. A decade of rapid change: Biocultural influences on child growth in highland Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oths, Kathryn S; Smith, Hannah N; Stein, Max J; Lazo Landivar, Rodrigo J

    2017-10-30

    In the past decade many areas of Peru have been undergoing extreme environmental, economic, and cultural change. In the highland hamlet of Chugurpampa, La Libertad, climate change has ruined harvests and led to frequent periods of migration to the coast in search of livelihood. This biocultural research examines how the changes could be affecting the growth of children who maintain residence in the highlands. Clinical records from the early 2000s were compared to those from the early 2010s. Charts were randomly selected to record anthropometric data, netting a sample of 75 children ages 0-60 months of age. Analysis of covariance was run to compare mean stature, weight, and BMI between cohorts. Percentage of children who fall below the -2 threshold for z-scores for height and weight were compared by age and cohort. A significant secular trend in growth was found, with children born more recently larger than those born a decade before. The effect is most notable in the first year of life, with the growth advantage attenuated by the age of 3 for height and age 4 for weight. While children were unlikely to be stunted from 0 to 3 years of age, 44% of the later cohort were stunted and 11% were underweight from 4 to 5 years of age. Three possible explanations for the rapid shift are entertained: more time spent on the coast during gestation and early childhood, which may attenuate the effect of hypoxia on child growth; dietary change; and increased use of biomedicine. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Dynamics of Population and Economic Growth: A Computer-Based Instruction Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roh, Chaisung; Handler, Paul

    A computer-assisted instructional (CAI) program at the University of Illinois is used to teach the dynamics of population growth. Socio-economic models are also developed to show the consequences of population growth upon variables such as income, productivity, and the demand for food. A one-sex population projection model allows students to…

  6. Early and rapid globalization as part of innovation and growth strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zijdemans, Erik; Azimi, Zohreh; Tanev, Stoyan

    of technology start-ups as a specific growth strategy (Zijdemans & Tanev, 2014). Our research adopts a dynamic resource perspective according to which the distinction between ex-ante and ex-post value of resources (Schmidt & Keil, 2012) complements the effectual entrepreneurial approach, which is typical...... for start-ups that globalize rapidly in an environment with a high degree of uncertainty (Sarasvathy, Kumar, York, & Bhagavatula, 2014). The ex-ante valuation of resources (Schmidt & Keil, 2012) is related to the ex-post characteristics of BG firms (Tanev, 2012) resulting in a Global Value Generator (GVG......) – a framework linking the ex-ante value drivers and ex-post characteristics of BG firms. Our aim is to use the GVG to help innovative start-ups in making strategic ex-ante decisions contributing to the development of competitive global business models, complementary global resources and differentiated value...

  7. After Nearly A Decade Of Rapid Growth, Use And Complexity Of Imaging Declined, 2008-14.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, David C; Parker, Laurence; Palit, Charles D; Rao, Vijay M

    2017-04-01

    Imaging is an important cost driver in health care, and its use grew rapidly in the early 2000s. Several studies toward the end of the decade suggested that a leveling off was beginning to occur. In this study we examined more recent data to determine whether the slowdown had continued. Our data sources were the nationwide Medicare Part B databases for the period 2001-14. We calculated utilization rates per 1,000 enrollees for all advanced imaging modalities. We also calculated professional component relative value unit (RVU) rates per 1,000 beneficiaries for all imaging modalities, as RVU values provide a measure of complexity of imaging services and may in some ways be a better reflection of the amount of work involved in imaging. We found that utilization rates and RVU rates grew substantially until 2008 and 2009, respectively, and then began to drop. The downward trend in both rates persisted through 2014. Federal policies appear to have achieved the desired effect of ending the rapid growth of imaging that had been seen in earlier years. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  8. POPULATION GROWTH AND PREFERENCE CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL WITH GENDER TIME DISTRIBUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The study builds a model of dynamic interactions between the birth rate, the mortality rate, the population, wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, leisure and children caring, habit formation and preference change. The production technology and markets are built on the Solow growth model. We base our modeling the population dynamics on the Haavelmo population model and the Barro-Becker fertility choice model. This study takes account of habit formation and preference change. Although it is influenced by the Ramsey growth theory with time preference and habit formation, it uses Zhang’s approach to the household with habit formation and preference change. We synthesize different dynamic forces in a compact framework, using the utility function proposed by Zhang. Analytically, we focus on transitional processes as well as economic equilibrium. As the economic system is given by autonomous nonlinear differential equations, it is not easy to analyze its behavior. We simulate the model to demonstrate the existence of an equilibrium point and plot the motion of the dynamic system. We examine the effects of changes in weights given to the habit stock of children, the wife’s wage rate having negative impact on the propensity to have children, the wife weighing less the habit stock of leisure time, the wife’s habit stock of leisure time having negative impact on the husband’s propensity to use leisure time, the wife’s wage rate having negative impact on the husband’s propensity to use leisure time, woman’s human capital being improved, a rise in the total factor productivity, and the mother spending more time on each child fostering.

  9. Extreme natural hazards: population growth, globalization and environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huppert, Herbert E; Sparks, R Stephen J

    2006-08-15

    Mankind is becoming ever more susceptible to natural disasters, largely as a consequence of population growth and globalization. It is likely that in the future, we will experience several disasters per year that kill more than 10,000 people. A calamity with a million casualties is just a matter of time. This situation is mainly a consequence of increased vulnerability. Climate change may also be affecting the frequency of extreme weather events as well as the vulnerability of coastal areas due to sea-level rise. Disastrous outcomes can only increase unless better ways are found to mitigate the effects through improved forecasting and warning, together with more community preparedness and resilience. There are particular difficulties with extreme events, which can affect several countries, while the largest events can have global consequences. The hazards of supervolcanic eruptions and asteroid impacts could cause global disaster with threats to civilization and deaths of billions of people. Although these are very rare events, they will happen and require consideration. More frequent and smaller events in the wrong place at the wrong time could have very large human, environmental and economic effects. A sustained effort is needed to identify places at risk and take steps to apply science before the events occur.

  10. Rapid microwave-assisted growth of silver nanoparticles on 3D graphene networks for supercapacitor application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khamlich, S; Khamliche, T; Dhlamini, M S; Khenfouch, M; Mothudi, B M; Maaza, M

    2017-05-01

    Silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) grown on a three dimensional (3d) graphene networks (GNs) has been successfully prepared by an efficient and rapid microwave-assisted growth process to form GNs/AgNPs nanocomposite electrode materials for supercapacitor application. The 3d nature of the used GNs offers a unique architecture, which creates an efficient conduction networks and maximum utilization of space and interface, and acts as a conductive layer for the deposited AgNPs. The electrochemical performances of the fabricated electrode were evaluated by cyclic voltammetry (CV), galvanostatic charge/discharge and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) tests. Specifically, the optimal GNs/AgNPs nanocomposite exhibits remarkable performances with a high specific capacitance of 528Fg-1 at a current density of 1Ag-1 and excellent capacitance retention of ∼93% after 3000cycles. Moreover, this microwave-assisted growth strategy of AgNPs is simple and effective, which could be extended to the construction of other three dimensional graphene based metallic composites for energy storage and conversion applications. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Microbial competition in porous environments can select against rapid biofilm growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coyte, Katharine Z; Tabuteau, Hervé; Gaffney, Eamonn A; Foster, Kevin R; Durham, William M

    2017-01-10

    Microbes often live in dense communities called biofilms, where competition between strains and species is fundamental to both evolution and community function. Although biofilms are commonly found in soil-like porous environments, the study of microbial interactions has largely focused on biofilms growing on flat, planar surfaces. Here, we use microfluidic experiments, mechanistic models, and game theory to study how porous media hydrodynamics can mediate competition between bacterial genotypes. Our experiments reveal a fundamental challenge faced by microbial strains that live in porous environments: cells that rapidly form biofilms tend to block their access to fluid flow and redirect resources to competitors. To understand how these dynamics influence the evolution of bacterial growth rates, we couple a model of flow-biofilm interaction with a game theory analysis. This investigation revealed that hydrodynamic interactions between competing genotypes give rise to an evolutionarily stable growth rate that stands in stark contrast with that observed in typical laboratory experiments: cells within a biofilm can outcompete other genotypes by growing more slowly. Our work reveals that hydrodynamics can profoundly affect how bacteria compete and evolve in porous environments, the habitat where most bacteria live.

  12. Rapid release of growth factors regenerates force output in volumetric muscle loss injuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grasman, Jonathan M.; Do, Duc M.; Page, Raymond L.; Pins, George D.

    2015-01-01

    A significant challenge in the design and development of biomaterial scaffolds is to incorporate mechanical and biochemical cues to direct organized tissue growth. In this study, we investigated the effect of hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) loaded, crosslinked fibrin (EDCn-HGF) microthread scaffolds on skeletal muscle regeneration in a mouse model of volumetric muscle loss (VML). The rapid, sustained release of HGF significantly enhanced the force production of muscle tissue 60 days after injury, recovering more than 200% of the force output relative to measurements recorded immediately after injury. HGF delivery increased the number of differentiating myoblasts 14 days after injury, and supported an enhanced angiogenic response. The architectural morphology of microthread scaffolds supported the ingrowth of nascent myofibers into the wound site, in contrast to fibrin gel implants which did not support functional regeneration. Together, these data suggest that EDCn-HGF microthreads recapitulate several of the regenerative cues lost in VML injuries, promote remodeling of functional muscle tissue, and enhance the functional regeneration of skeletal muscle. Further, by strategically incorporating specific biochemical factors and precisely tuning the structural and mechanical properties of fibrin microthreads, we have developed a powerful platform technology that may enhance regeneration in other axially aligned tissues. PMID:26344363

  13. Population and economic growth theme: Longitudinal data for a sample of Balkan countries

    OpenAIRE

    Josheski, Dushko; Nikola, Dimitrov; Koteski, Cane

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we use pooled cross-sectional (longitudinal data) in a sample of 10 Balkan countries. The period we cover is from 1950-2009 data are for population and economic growth. In the theoretical part we present optimal intergenerational model of population growth .The optimal population growth depends on capital in the future period and future consumption. Consumption should be greater than zero, and less than total capital of the cur-rent generation. In the econometric part OLS regres...

  14. Population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis brunnea (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae) at constant temperatures and relative humidities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opit, G P; Throne, J E

    2009-06-01

    We studied the effects of temperature and relative humidity on population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis brunnea Motschulsky. L. brunnea did not survive at 43% RH, but populations increased from 22.5 to 32.5 degrees C and 55-75% RH. Interestingly, we found population growth was higher at 63% RH than at 75% RH, and the greatest population growth was recorded at 32.5 degrees C and 63% RH. At 35 degrees C, L. brunnea nymphal survivorship was 33%, and populations declined or barely grew. L. brunnea males have two to four nymphal instars, and the percentages of males with two, three, and four instars were 13, 82, and 5%, respectively. Female L. brunnea have three to five instars, and the percentages of females with three, four, and five instars were 18, 78, and 4%, respectively. The life cycle was shorter for males than females. We developed temperature-dependent development equations for male and female eggs, individual nymphal, combined nymphal, and combined immature stages and nymphal survivorship. The ability of L. brunnea to multiply rather rapidly at 55% RH may allow it to thrive under conditions of low relative humidity where other Liposcelis species may not. These data give us a better understanding of L. brunnea population dynamics and can be used to help develop effective management strategies for this psocid.

  15. Neptune: a bioinformatics tool for rapid discovery of genomic variation in bacterial populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marinier, Eric; Zaheer, Rahat; Berry, Chrystal; Weedmark, Kelly A; Domaratzki, Michael; Mabon, Philip; Knox, Natalie C; Reimer, Aleisha R; Graham, Morag R; Chui, Linda; Patterson-Fortin, Laura; Zhang, Jian; Pagotto, Franco; Farber, Jeff; Mahony, Jim; Seyer, Karine; Bekal, Sadjia; Tremblay, Cécile; Isaac-Renton, Judy; Prystajecky, Natalie; Chen, Jessica; Slade, Peter; Van Domselaar, Gary

    2017-10-13

    The ready availability of vast amounts of genomic sequence data has created the need to rethink comparative genomics algorithms using 'big data' approaches. Neptune is an efficient system for rapidly locating differentially abundant genomic content in bacterial populations using an exact k-mer matching strategy, while accommodating k-mer mismatches. Neptune's loci discovery process identifies sequences that are sufficiently common to a group of target sequences and sufficiently absent from non-targets using probabilistic models. Neptune uses parallel computing to efficiently identify and extract these loci from draft genome assemblies without requiring multiple sequence alignments or other computationally expensive comparative sequence analyses. Tests on simulated and real datasets showed that Neptune rapidly identifies regions that are both sensitive and specific. We demonstrate that this system can identify trait-specific loci from different bacterial lineages. Neptune is broadly applicable for comparative bacterial analyses, yet will particularly benefit pathogenomic applications, owing to efficient and sensitive discovery of differentially abundant genomic loci. The software is available for download at: http://github.com/phac-nml/neptune. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  16. Rapid assessment of visual impairment in urban population of Delhi, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Noopur; Vashist, Praveen; Malhotra, Sumit; Senjam, Suraj Singh; Misra, Vasundhara; Bhardwaj, Amit

    2015-01-01

    To determine the prevalence, causes and associated demographic factors related to visual impairment amongst the urban population of New Delhi, India. A population-based, cross-sectional study was conducted in East Delhi district using cluster random sampling methodology. This Rapid Assessment of Visual Impairment (RAVI) survey involved examination of all individuals aged 40 years and above in 24 randomly selected clusters of the district. Visual acuity (VA) assessment and comprehensive ocular examination were done during the door-to-door survey. A questionnaire was used to collect personal and demographic information of the study population. Blindness and Visual Impairment was defined as presenting VA visual impairment. Of 2421 subjects enumerated, 2331 (96.3%) were available for ophthalmic examination. Among those examined, 49.3% were males. The prevalence of visual impairment (VI) in the study population, was 11.4% (95% C.I. 10.1, 12.7) and that of blindness was 1.2% (95% C.I. 0.8, 1.6). Uncorrected refractive error was the leading cause of VI accounting for 53.4% of all VI followed by cataract (33.8%). With multivariable logistic regression, the odds of having VI increased with age (OR = 24.6[95% C.I.: 14.9, 40.7]; p visual impairment is considerable in this region despite availability of adequate eye care facilities. Awareness generation and simple interventions like cataract surgery and provision of spectacles will help to eliminate the major causes of blindness and visual impairment in this region.

  17. The growth of urban population in the Philippines: 1975-1980.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-01-01

    The growth of the urban population of the Philippines between 1975 and 1980 is described using data from the 1980 census. The article also updates the number and population of urban areas classified on the basis of 1970 urban definitions.

  18. Application of Molecular Cytogenetic Technique for Rapid Prenatal Diagnosis of Aneuploidies in Iranian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Habib Nasiri

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Classic cell culture and karyotyping is routinely used for prenatal detection of different chromosomal abnormalities. Molecular cytogenetic techniques have also recently been developed and used for this purpose. Quantitative florescence PCR using short tandem repeat (STR markers has more potential for high throughput diagnosis. Marker heterozygosity in short tandem repeats (STR is of critical importance in the clinical applicablity of this method. Materials and Methods: Different STR markers on chromosomes 13, 18, 21, X and Y  were analysed from  amniotic samples to detect related disorders such as Down, Edward, Patau,  Klinefelter sundromes , as well as sex chromosomes numerical abnormalities . Results: In our population some markers (D18S976, DXS6854, D21S11, and D21S1411 showed alleles with sizes out of expected ranges. But others occupied narrower range of predicted distribution. Most markers have enough heterozygosity (66.3-94.7 to be used for prenatal diagnosis. Furthermore, results obtained from full karyotype for all samples were in concordance with results of molecular cytogenetic testing. Conclusion: It is concluded that, in urgent situations, if proper markers used, molecular cytogenetic testing (QF-PCR could be a useful method for rapid prenatal diagnosis (PND in populations with high rate of consanguinity such as Iran.  

  19. Population growth rates of reef sharks with and without fishing on the great barrier reef: robust estimation with multiple models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mizue Hisano

    Full Text Available Overfishing of sharks is a global concern, with increasing numbers of species threatened by overfishing. For many sharks, both catch rates and underwater visual surveys have been criticized as indices of abundance. In this context, estimation of population trends using individual demographic rates provides an important alternative means of assessing population status. However, such estimates involve uncertainties that must be appropriately characterized to credibly and effectively inform conservation efforts and management. Incorporating uncertainties into population assessment is especially important when key demographic rates are obtained via indirect methods, as is often the case for mortality rates of marine organisms subject to fishing. Here, focusing on two reef shark species on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, we estimated natural and total mortality rates using several indirect methods, and determined the population growth rates resulting from each. We used bootstrapping to quantify the uncertainty associated with each estimate, and to evaluate the extent of agreement between estimates. Multiple models produced highly concordant natural and total mortality rates, and associated population growth rates, once the uncertainties associated with the individual estimates were taken into account. Consensus estimates of natural and total population growth across multiple models support the hypothesis that these species are declining rapidly due to fishing, in contrast to conclusions previously drawn from catch rate trends. Moreover, quantitative projections of abundance differences on fished versus unfished reefs, based on the population growth rate estimates, are comparable to those found in previous studies using underwater visual surveys. These findings appear to justify management actions to substantially reduce the fishing mortality of reef sharks. They also highlight the potential utility of rigorously characterizing uncertainty, and

  20. Components and public health impact of population growth in the Arab world.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asharaf Abdul Salam

    Full Text Available The Arab world, which consists of the 22 member states of the Arab League, is undergoing a rapid transition in demographics, including fertility, mortality, and migration. Comprising a distinctive geographic region spread across West Asia and North East Africa and unified by the Arabic language, these states share common values and characteristics despite having diverse economic and political conditions. The demographic lag (high fertility and low mortality that characterizes the Arab world is unique, but the present trend of declining fertility, combined with the relatively low mortality, brings about significant changes in its population size. This research aimed to: (i assess the population growth in the Arab world over 3 time periods, (ii explore its components, and (iii understand its public health impact. Data from the International Data Base (IDB of the U.S. Census Bureau for 3 time periods (1992, 2002, and 2012 in 21 countries of the Arab world were analyzed by dividing them into four geographic sectors, namely, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC, West Asia, Maghreb, and the Nile Valley African Horn. The population of the Arab world has grown considerably due to both natural growth and migration. The immigration is pronounced, especially into resource-intensive GCC nations, not only from East Asian and Central African countries but also from resource-thrifty (limited-resource Arab nations. The migrations within, as well as outside, the Arab world reveal an interesting demographic phenomenon that requires further research: migration flows and trends. However, the transformations in public health statistics related to mortality-the impact of demographic changes-depict a new era in the Arab world.

  1. Components and public health impact of population growth in the Arab world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul Salam, Asharaf; Elsegaey, Ibrahim; Khraif, Rshood; AlMutairi, Abdullah; Aldosari, Ali

    2015-01-01

    The Arab world, which consists of the 22 member states of the Arab League, is undergoing a rapid transition in demographics, including fertility, mortality, and migration. Comprising a distinctive geographic region spread across West Asia and North East Africa and unified by the Arabic language, these states share common values and characteristics despite having diverse economic and political conditions. The demographic lag (high fertility and low mortality) that characterizes the Arab world is unique, but the present trend of declining fertility, combined with the relatively low mortality, brings about significant changes in its population size. This research aimed to: (i) assess the population growth in the Arab world over 3 time periods, (ii) explore its components, and (iii) understand its public health impact. Data from the International Data Base (IDB) of the U.S. Census Bureau for 3 time periods (1992, 2002, and 2012) in 21 countries of the Arab world were analyzed by dividing them into four geographic sectors, namely, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), West Asia, Maghreb, and the Nile Valley African Horn. The population of the Arab world has grown considerably due to both natural growth and migration. The immigration is pronounced, especially into resource-intensive GCC nations, not only from East Asian and Central African countries but also from resource-thrifty (limited-resource) Arab nations. The migrations within, as well as outside, the Arab world reveal an interesting demographic phenomenon that requires further research: migration flows and trends. However, the transformations in public health statistics related to mortality-the impact of demographic changes-depict a new era in the Arab world.

  2. Rapid stimulation of fluid-phase endocytosis and exocytosis by insulin, insulin-like growth factor-I, and epidermal growth factor in KB cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyata, Y; Hoshi, M; Koyasu, S; Kadowaki, T; Kasuga, M; Yahara, I; Nishida, E; Sakai, H

    1988-09-01

    Effects of growth factors on fluid-phase endocytosis and exocytosis in human epidermoid carcinoma KB cells were examined by measuring horseradish peroxidase (HRP) as a marker. Insulin, insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I), and epidermal growth factor (EGF) promoted HRP accumulation. They also stimulated the efflux of the preloaded HRP from the cells. From these results it follows that these growth factors stimulate the influx as well as the efflux of HRP, because the accumulation rate is the sum of the influx rate and the efflux rate. The stimulation of both HRP accumulation and HRP efflux was rapidly induced within 2-4 min of the addition of growth factors and persisted for at least 60 min. The concentrations eliciting half-maximal stimulatory effects of insulin, IGF-I, and EGF were about 5 X 10(-7), 1 X 10(-9), and 5 X 10(-10) M, respectively. aIR-3 (anti-type I IGF receptor antibody) completely blocked the stimulation of HRP accumulation by IGF-I but very slightly inhibited the stimulation by insulin. The 528 IgG (anti-EGF receptor antibody) inhibited the stimulation of HRP accumulation by EGF. These results indicated that each of these growth factors stimulates the HRP accumulation mediated by the corresponding (homologous) growth factor receptors. The rapid stimulation of fluid-phase influx and efflux may constitute one of the common early cellular responses to growth factors.

  3. Describing the growth and rapid weight gain of urban Australian Aboriginal infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, Vana; Denney-Wilson, Elizabeth; Knight, Jennifer; Comino, Elizabeth

    2013-04-01

    The aims of this paper are to describe the growth of urban Australian Aboriginal infants from birth to 24 months of age and to identify the proportion of these infants experiencing rapid weight gain (RWG) and overweight/obesity. The Gudaga Study is a longitudinal birth cohort of 159 Australian Aboriginal children born on the urban fringe of Sydney. Birthweight and length were extracted from hospital data. Children with a birthweight >1500 grams were included in the analysis (n = 157). Weight, length and head circumference were measured at 2-3 weeks and then six-monthly until 24 months of age. Age- and gender-specific Z-scores were determined from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) 2000 growth charts for weight, length, head circumference and body mass index (BMI). The proportion of children experiencing RWG (an increase in weight-for-age Z-scores ≥0.67 between birth and 12 months) was calculated. The association between RWG and ≥85th CDC percentile for BMI at 24 months was tested using Pearson's χ². The mean weight of Gudaga infants was less than the CDC mean length-for-age at birth and 2-3 weeks of age but greater than CDC mean length-for-age and weight-for-age at 18 and 24 months of age. Overall, 42 infants (34.4%) experienced RWG, and 45 infants (36.9%) were overweight/obese at 24 months of age. A greater proportion of those who experienced RWG (61.9%) were overweight/obese at 24 months than those who did not experience RWG (23.8%). Our study suggests a concerning proportion of urban Indigenous infants experience RWG and overweight/obesity in early childhood.

  4. Gas dwell time control for rapid and long lifetime growth of single-walled carbon nanotube forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasuda, Satoshi; Futaba, Don N; Yamada, Takeo; Yumura, Motoo; Hata, Kenji

    2011-09-14

    The heat history (i.e., "dwell time") of the carbon source gas was demonstrated as a vital parameter for very rapid single-walled carbon nanotube (SWNT) forest growth with long lifetime. When the dwell time was raised to 7 s from the 4 s used for standard growth, the growth rate increased to 620 μm/min: a benchmark for SWNT forest growth on substrates. Importantly, the increase in growth rate was achieved without decreasing either the growth lifetime or the quality of the SWNTs. We interpret that the conversion rate of the carbon feedstock into CNTs was selectively increased (versus catalyst deactivation) by delivering a thermally decomposed carbon source with the optimum thermal history to the catalyst site.

  5. The effect of population aging on health expenditure growth : A critical review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Meijer, C.; Wouterse, B.; Polder, J.J.; Koopmanschap, M.

    2013-01-01

    Although the consequences of population aging for growth in health expenditures have been widely investigated, research on this topic is rather fragmented. Therefore, these consequences are not fully understood. This paper reviews the consequences of population aging for health expenditure growth in

  6. Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costa da Silva, Diego Firmino; Elhorst, J. Paul; Silveira Neto, Raul da Mota

    2017-01-01

    Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities. Regional Studies. Using Bayesian posterior model probabilities and data pertaining to 3659 Brazilian minimum comparable areas (MCAs) over the period 1970-2010, two theoretical settings of population growth dynamics resulting in

  7. Constant Savings Rates and Quasi-arithmetic Population Growth under Exhaustible Resource Constraints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asheim, G.; Buchholz, W.; Hartwick, J.; Mitra, T.; Withagen, C.A.A.M.

    2007-01-01

    In the Dasgupta-Heal-Solow-Stiglitz (DHSS) model of capital accumulation and resource depletion we show the following equivalence: if an efficient path has constant (gross and net of population growth) savings rates, then population growth must be quasi-arithmetic and the path is a maximin or a

  8. Rapid Formation of Black Holes in Galaxies: A Self-limiting Growth Mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhi; Sellwood, J. A.; Shen, Juntai

    2017-11-01

    We present high-quality fluid dynamical simulations of isothermal gas flows in a rotating barred potential. We show that a large quantity of gas is driven right into the nucleus of a galaxy when the model lacks a central mass concentration, but the inflow stalls at a nuclear ring in comparison simulations that include a central massive object. The radius of the nuclear gas ring increases linearly with the mass of the central object. We argue that bars drive gas right into the nucleus in the early stages of disk galaxy formation, where a nuclear star cluster and perhaps a massive black hole could be created. The process is self-limiting, however, because inflow stalls at a nuclear ring once the mass of gas and stars in the nucleus exceeds ˜1% of the disk mass, which shuts off rapid growth of the black hole. We briefly discuss the relevance of these results to the seeding of massive black holes in galaxies, the merger model for quasar evolution, and the existence of massive black holes in disk galaxies that lack a significant classical bulge.

  9. Rapid Startup and Loading of an Attached Growth, Simultaneous Nitrification/Denitrification Membrane Aerated Bioreactor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Caitlin; Vega, Leticia

    2014-01-01

    The Membrane Aerated Bioreactor (MABR) is an attached-growth biological system for simultaneous nitrification and denitrification. This design is an innovative approach to common terrestrial wastewater treatments for nitrogen and carbon removal. Implementing a biologically-based water treatment system for long-duration human exploration is an attractive, low energy alternative to physiochemical processes. Two obstacles to implementing such a system are (1) the "start-up" duration from inoculation to steady-state operations and (2) the amount of surface area needed for the biological activity to occur. The Advanced Water Recovery Systems (AWRS) team at JSC explored these two issues through two tests; a rapid inoculation study and a wastewater loading study. Results from these tests demonstrate that the duration from inoculation to steady state can be reduced to two weeks and that the surface area to volume ratio baseline used in the Alternative Water Processor (AWP) test was higher than what was needed to remove the organic carbon and ammonium from the system.

  10. The Seneca effect why growth is slow but collapse is rapid

    CERN Document Server

    Bardi, Ugo

    2017-01-01

    The essence of this book can be found in a line written by the ancient Roman Stoic Philosopher Lucius Annaeus Seneca: "Fortune is of sluggish growth, but ruin is rapid". This sentence summarizes the features of the phenomenon that we call "collapse," which is typically sudden and often unexpected, like the proverbial "house of cards." But why are such collapses so common, and what generates them? Several books have been published on the subject, including the well-known "Collapse" by Jared Diamond (2005), "The collapse of complex societies" by Joseph Tainter (1998) and "The Tipping Point," by Malcom Gladwell (2000). Why The Seneca Effect? This book is an ambitious attempt to pull these various strands together by describing collapse from a multi-disciplinary viewpoint. The reader will discover how collapse is a collective phenomenon that occurs in what we call today "complex systems," with a special emphasis on system dynamics and t he concept of "feedback." From this foundation, Bardi applies the...

  11. Rapid assessment of trachoma in underserved population of Car-Nicobar Island, India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Praveen Vashist

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: To determine the burden of trachoma and its related risk factors amongst the native population of Car-Nicobar Island in India. METHODS: Rapid assessment for trachoma was conducted in ten villages of Car-Nicobar Island according to standard WHO guidelines. An average of 50 children aged 1-9 years were assessed clinically for signs of active trachoma and facial cleanliness in each village. Additionally, all adults above 15 years of age in these households were examined for evidence of trachomatous trichiasis and corneal opacity. Environmental risk factors contributing to trachoma like limited access to potable water & functional latrine, presence of animal pen and garbage within the Nicobari hut were also noted in all villages. RESULTS: Out of a total of fifteen villages in Car-Nicobar Island, ten villages were selected for trachoma survey depending on evidence of socio-developmental indicators like poverty and decreased access to water, sanitation and healthcare facilities. The total population of the selected clusters was 7277 in the ten villages. Overall, 251 of 516 children (48.6%;CI: 46.5-55.1 had evidence of follicular stage of trachoma and 11 children (2.1%;CI:1.0-3.4 had evidence of inflammatory stage of trachoma. Nearly 15%(CI:12.1-18.3 children were noted to have unclean faces in the ten villages. Trachomatous trichiasis was noted in 73 adults (1.0%;CI:0.8-1.2. The environmental sanitation was not found to be satisfactory in the surveyed villages mainly due to the co-habitance of Nicobari people with domestic animals like pigs, hens, goats, dogs, cats etc in most (96.4% of the households. CONCLUSION: Active trachoma and trachomatous trichiasis was observed in all the ten villages surveyed, wherein trachoma control measures are needed.

  12. Plant Growth and Development: An Outline for a Unit Structured Around the Life Cycle of Rapid-Cycling Brassica Rapa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Wayne M.

    This outline is intended for use in a unit of 10-12 lectures on plant growth and development at the introductory undergraduate level as part of a course on organismal biology. The series of lecture outlines is structured around the life cycle of rapid-cycling Brassica rapa (RCBr). The unit begins with three introductory lectures on general plant…

  13. Early rapid growth : no association with later cognitive functions in children born not small for gestational age

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beyerlein, Andreas; Ness, Andrew R.; Streuling, Ina; Hadders-Algra, Mijna; von Kries, Ruediger

    Background: There is an association between rapid growth in early life and overweight in childhood. This adverse association needs to be balanced against potential beneficial effects on cognitive functioning observed in children who are born small for gestational age (SGA). Objective: We examined

  14. Rapid assessment of populations trends of invasive species: Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DANA, ED

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA is a powerful analytical approach for biodi-versity management. Its main advan-tages are due to its intuitive processing and visualization, since mathematical workflow is conceptually similar to the widely accepted Principal Components Analysis. Detailed analyses of popula-tion trends with mathematical tools are often difficult to achieve for managers by a number of reasons (large numbers or areas monitored, large number of species, insufficient statistics skills, strong knowledge level in demographic analyses, etc.. SSA has been used since the 1970’s in signal processing to clarify signal vs. noisy information, but it has also been used in climate change analy-sis and other developmental areas. Be-sides, SSA is a rapid-learning method for technicians and managers with medium level of mathematical knowledge. Free software in Unix environment is avail-able. Unfortunately, no free and friendly software is available for Win-dows SO. Although R package may offer solutions for really advanced users, it does not fit real work situations for managers of biological invasions. Cater-pillar (Gistat Group, Ltd is by now, the best option found by the author in terms of price, facility for results inter-pretation and time consumed in learn-ing. The main disadvantage is the poor content of tutorial files

  15. Investigation of QF-PCR Application for Rapid Prenatal Diagnosis of Chromosomal Aneuploidies in Iranian Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasiri, Habib; Noori-Dalooi, Mohammad-Reza; Dastan, Jila; Ghaffari, Saeed-Reza

    2011-03-01

    G-Banding followed by standard chromosome analysis is routinely used for prenatal detection of chromosomal abnormalities. In recent years, molecular cytogenetic techniques have been developed for rapid diagnosis of chromosomal abnormalities. Among these methods Quantitative Florescence Polymerase Chain Reaction (QF-PCR) has been widely used for this purpose. Heterozygosity of short tandem repeat (STR) markers which leads to informativity is the most critical requirement for feasibility of QF-PCR. In this study we analyzed several short tandem repeats on chromosomes 13, 18, 21, X and Y on amniotic fluid samples obtained from PND candidates to diagnose conditions such as Down, Edward and Patau syndromes and also numerical sex chromosome abnormalities such as Klinefelter and Turner syndromes. Most of the analyzed STRs had acceptable heterozygosity (66.3-94.7) to be used in QF-PCR based prenatal diagnosis. Moreover, results obtained from both methods (standard karyotype and QF-PCR) for all samples were in accordance with each other. In case of using appropriate STR markers, and in certain clinical indications, QF-PCR could be used as useful technique for prenatal diagnosis even in consanguine populations such as Iranians.

  16. The demographic consequences of mutualism: ants increase host-plant fruit production but not population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin Ford; Joshua H. Ness; Judith L. Bronstein; William F. Morris

    2015-01-01

    The impact of mutualists on a partner’s demography depends on how they affect the partner’s multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and...

  17. The demographic consequences of mutualism: ants increase host-plant fruit production but not population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Kevin R; Ness, Joshua H; Bronstein, Judith L; Morris, William F

    2015-10-01

    The impact of mutualists on a partner's demography depends on how they affect the partner's multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and simulations of long-term population dynamics to quantify the demographic impact of a guild of ant species on the plant Ferocactus wislizeni. The ants feed at the plant's extrafloral nectaries and attack herbivores attempting to consume reproductive organs. Ant-guarded plants produced significantly more fruit, but ants had no significant effect on individual growth or survival. After integrating ant effects across these vital rates, we found that projected population growth was not significantly different between unguarded and ant-guarded plants because population growth was only weakly influenced by differences in fruit production (though strongly influenced by differences in individual growth and survival). However, simulations showed that ants could positively affect long-term plant population dynamics through services provided during rare but important events (herbivore outbreaks that reduce survival or years of high seedling recruitment associated with abundant precipitation). Thus, in this seemingly clear example of mutualism, the interaction may actually yield no clear benefit to plant population growth, or if it does, may only do so through the actions of the ants during rare events. These insights demonstrate the value of taking a demographic approach to studying the consequences of mutualism.

  18. First solar system solids to proto-planets: A Rapid growth in a few million years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Jitendranath

    2016-07-01

    First solar system solids to proto-planets: A Rapid growth in a few million years J. N. Goswami Physical Research Laboratory Ahmedabad-380009, India Collapse of a dense molecular cloud led to the formation of the proto-Sun surrounded by a high temperature gaseous nebula. The nebula settled down to the mid-plane and formation of the first solar system solids, refractory oxides and silicates, such as Corundum, Perovskite, Melilite took place, that was followed by formation of more common silicate minerals. Laboratory studies of primitive meteorites support this scenario and also provide evidence for correlated presence of several now-extinct short-lived nuclides (e.g. 41Ca, 26Al, 60Fe) at the time of formation of the first solar system solids. Presence of 60Fe in early solar system solids suggests injection of freshly synthesized nuclides from a stellar source (a supernova) into the proto-solar cloud that also triggered its collapse and led to formation of our solar system. Presence of 41Ca (half-life: 0.1Ma) in early solar system solids suggest a time scale of less than a million years for the collapse of the proto-solar cloud and formation of proto-Sun and the first solar system solids. The gradual evolution of larger solar system objects, up to planetesimals (represented by the asteroids), took place at a rapid pace within a time scale of a few million years. Some of the asteroids retain their pristine nature (e.g. parent bodies of carbonaceous chondrite), while others, underwent melting and differentiation due to internal heating. Harold Urey proposed radioactive 26Al as a possible heat source that was confirmed by experiment only in 1999. Irons and stony iron meteorites are fragments from core regions of differentiated asteroids. Extensive computer simulation studies suggest that an explosive stellar event (e.g. supernova) can indeed trigger the collapse of the proto-solar cloud and also inject freshly synthesized short-lived nuclides into it within a relatively

  19. Population Growth and Policies in Mega-Cities. Sao Paulo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    United Nations New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis.

    This document is one in a series of studies that focus on the population policies and plans of a number of mega-cities in developing countries. The object of the series is to examine the formulation, implementation, and evaluation of the population policies of mega-cities from a broad perspective, emphasizing the reciprocal links between…

  20. Nutrient foraging strategies are associated with productivity and population growth in forest shrubs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caplan, Joshua S; Stone, Bram W G; Faillace, Cara A; Lafond, Jonathan J; Baumgarten, Joni M; Mozdzer, Thomas J; Dighton, John; Meiners, Scott J; Grabosky, Jason C; Ehrenfeld, Joan G

    2017-04-01

    Temperate deciduous forest understoreys are experiencing widespread changes in community composition, concurrent with increases in rates of nitrogen supply. These shifts in plant abundance may be driven by interspecific differences in nutrient foraging (i.e. conservative vs. acquisitive strategies) and, thus, adaptation to contemporary nutrient loading conditions. This study sought to determine if interspecific differences in nutrient foraging could help explain patterns of shrub success and decline in eastern North American forests. Using plants grown in a common garden, fine root traits associated with nutrient foraging were measured for six shrub species. Traits included the mean and skewness of the root diameter distribution, specific root length (SRL), C:N ratio, root tissue density, arbuscular mycorrhizal colonization and foraging precision. Above- and below-ground productivity were also determined for the same plants, and population growth rates were estimated using data from a long-term study of community dynamics. Root traits were compared among species and associations among root traits, measures of productivity and rates of population growth were evaluated. Species fell into groups having thick or thin root forms, which correspond to conservative vs. acquisitive nutrient foraging strategies. Interspecific variation in root morphology and tissue construction correlated with measures of productivity and rates of cover expansion. Of the four species with acquisitive traits, three were introduced species that have become invasive in recent decades, and the fourth was a weedy native. In contrast, the two species with conservative traits were historically dominant shrubs that have declined in abundance in eastern North American forests. In forest understoreys of eastern North America, elevated nutrient availability may impose a filter on species success in addition to above-ground processes such as herbivory and overstorey canopy conditions. Shrubs that have

  1. Regulatory design governing progression of population growth phases in bacteria.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agustino Martínez-Antonio

    Full Text Available It has long been noted that batch cultures inoculated with resting bacteria exhibit a progression of growth phases traditionally labeled lag, exponential, pre-stationary and stationary. However, a detailed molecular description of the mechanisms controlling the transitions between these phases is lacking. A core circuit, formed by a subset of regulatory interactions involving five global transcription factors (FIS, HNS, IHF, RpoS and GadX, has been identified by correlating information from the well- established transcriptional regulatory network of Escherichia coli and genome-wide expression data from cultures in these different growth phases. We propose a functional role for this circuit in controlling progression through these phases. Two alternative hypotheses for controlling the transition between the growth phases are first, a continuous graded adjustment to changing environmental conditions, and second, a discontinuous hysteretic switch at critical thresholds between growth phases. We formulate a simple mathematical model of the core circuit, consisting of differential equations based on the power-law formalism, and show by mathematical and computer-assisted analysis that there are critical conditions among the parameters of the model that can lead to hysteretic switch behavior, which--if validated experimentally--would suggest that the transitions between different growth phases might be analogous to cellular differentiation. Based on these provocative results, we propose experiments to test the alternative hypotheses.

  2. Impacts of Hispanic Population Growth on Rural Wages. Agricultural Economic Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Constance

    Although earnings generally increased in rural areas in the 1990s, Hispanic population growth led to lower wages for at least one segment of the rural population--workers with a high school degree (skilled workers), particularly men in this skill group. Using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Current Population Survey, this report…

  3. When evolution is the solution to pollution: Key principles, and lessons from rapid repeated adaptation of killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) populations

    OpenAIRE

    Whitehead, Andrew; Clark, Bryan W.; Reid, Noah M.; Hahn, Mark E.; Nacci, Diane

    2017-01-01

    Abstract For most species, evolutionary adaptation is not expected to be sufficiently rapid to buffer the effects of human‐mediated environmental changes, including environmental pollution. Here we review how key features of populations, the characteristics of environmental pollution, and the genetic architecture underlying adaptive traits, may interact to shape the likelihood of evolutionary rescue from pollution. Large populations of Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) persist in som...

  4. Fetal growth in a population group in Lima

    OpenAIRE

    Pacora, Percy; Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima, Perú

    2014-01-01

    Fetal growth is both an index of fetal well-being and predictor of early development of chronic diseases during extrauterine life. Therefore, it is neccesary to establish fetal growth standard. Based on 18,615 single deliveries registered at San Bartolome's Hospital in Lima, Peru, between June 1990 and March 1995, only 5,399 (29%) healthy Peruvian pregnant women less than 35 years old with no obstetrical complications had a healthy baby. We did not consider healthy a baby born before 34 weeks...

  5. Population size, survival, growth, and movements of Rana sierrae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fellers, Gary M.; Kleeman, Patrick M.; Miller, David A. W.; Halstead, Brian J.; Link, William

    2013-01-01

    Based on 2431 captures of 757 individual frogs over a 9-yr period, we found that the population of R. sierrae in one meadow–stream complex in Yosemite National Park ranged from an estimated 45 to 115 adult frogs. Rana sierrae at our relatively low elevation site (2200 m) grew at a fast rate (K = 0.73–0.78), had high overwintering survival rates (44.6–95%), lived a long time (up to 16 yr), and tended to be fairly sedentary during the summer (100% minimum convex polygon annual home ranges of 139 m2) but had low year-to-year site fidelity. Even though the amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd) has been present in the population for at least 13 yr, there was no clear downward trend as might be expected from reports of R. sierrae population declines associated with Bd or from reports of widespread population decline of R. sierrae throughout its range.

  6. Homogenous Population Genetic Structure of the Non-Native Raccoon Dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) in Europe as a Result of Rapid Population Expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drygala, Frank; Korablev, Nikolay; Ansorge, Hermann; Fickel, Joerns; Isomursu, Marja; Elmeros, Morten; Kowalczyk, Rafał; Baltrunaite, Laima; Balciauskas, Linas; Saarma, Urmas; Schulze, Christoph; Borkenhagen, Peter; Frantz, Alain C

    2016-01-01

    The extent of gene flow during the range expansion of non-native species influences the amount of genetic diversity retained in expanding populations. Here, we analyse the population genetic structure of the raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) in north-eastern and central Europe. This invasive species is of management concern because it is highly susceptible to fox rabies and an important secondary host of the virus. We hypothesized that the large number of introduced animals and the species' dispersal capabilities led to high population connectivity and maintenance of genetic diversity throughout the invaded range. We genotyped 332 tissue samples from seven European countries using 16 microsatellite loci. Different algorithms identified three genetic clusters corresponding to Finland, Denmark and a large 'central' population that reached from introduction areas in western Russia to northern Germany. Cluster assignments provided evidence of long-distance dispersal. The results of an Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis supported a scenario of equal effective population sizes among different pre-defined populations in the large central cluster. Our results are in line with strong gene flow and secondary admixture between neighbouring demes leading to reduced genetic structuring, probably a result of its fairly rapid population expansion after introduction. The results presented here are remarkable in the sense that we identified a homogenous genetic cluster inhabiting an area stretching over more than 1500km. They are also relevant for disease management, as in the event of a significant rabies outbreak, there is a great risk of a rapid virus spread among raccoon dog populations.

  7. Rapid economic growth leads to boost in NO2 pollution over India, as seen from space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilboll, Andreas; Richter, Andreas; Burrows, John P.

    2016-04-01

    Over the past decades, the Indian economy has been growing at an exceptional pace. This growth was induced and accompanied by a strong increase of the Indian population. Consequently, traffic, electricity consumption, and industrial production have soared over the past decades, leading to a strong increase in fuel consumption and thus pollutant emissions. Nitrogen oxides (NO+NO2) are a major component of anthropogenic air pollution, playing key part in reaction cycles leading to the formation of tropospheric ozone. They are mainly emitted by the combustion of fossil fuels; other sources include production by lightning, biomass burning, and microbial activity in soils. Since the mid-1990s, space-borne measurements of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) have been conducted by the GOME, SCIAMACHY, GOME-2, and OMI instruments. These instruments perform hyperspectral measurements of scattered and reflected sunlight. Their measurements are then analyzed using differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) to yield vertically integrated columnar trace gas abundances. Here, we will present the results of 20 years of NO2 measurements over the Indian subcontinent. After showing the spatial distribution of NO2 pollution over India, we will present time series for individual states and urban agglomerations. These time series will then be related to various indicators of economic development. Finally, we will highlight several instances where single industrial pollution sources and their development can clearly be identified from the NO2 maps and estimate their NO2 emissions.

  8. Assessing the anticipated growth response of northern conifer populations to a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedlar, John H.; McKenney, Daniel W.

    2017-03-01

    The growth response of trees to ongoing climate change has important implications for future forest dynamics, accurate carbon accounting, and sustainable forest management. We used data from black spruce (Picea mariana) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana) provenance trials, along with published data for three other northern conifers, to identify a consistent growth response to climate warming in which cold-origin populations are expected to benefit and warm-origin populations are expected to decline. Specifically, populations from across the geographic range of a species appear to grow well at temperatures characteristic of the southern portion of the range, indicating significant potential for a positive growth response to climate warming in cold-origin populations. Few studies have quantified and compared this pattern across multiple species using provenance data. We present a forest regeneration strategy that incorporates these anticipated growth responses to promote populations that are both local to the planting site and expected to grow well under climate change.

  9. Modelling breast cancer tumour growth for a stable disease population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isheden, Gabriel; Humphreys, Keith

    2017-01-01

    Statistical models of breast cancer tumour progression have been used to further our knowledge of the natural history of breast cancer, to evaluate mammography screening in terms of mortality, to estimate overdiagnosis, and to estimate the impact of lead-time bias when comparing survival times between screen detected cancers and cancers found outside of screening programs. Multi-state Markov models have been widely used, but several research groups have proposed other modelling frameworks based on specifying an underlying biological continuous tumour growth process. These continuous models offer some advantages over multi-state models and have been used, for example, to quantify screening sensitivity in terms of mammographic density, and to quantify the effect of body size covariates on tumour growth and time to symptomatic detection. As of yet, however, the continuous tumour growth models are not sufficiently developed and require extensive computing to obtain parameter estimates. In this article, we provide a detailed description of the underlying assumptions of the continuous tumour growth model, derive new theoretical results for the model, and show how these results may help the development of this modelling framework. In illustrating the approach, we develop a model for mammography screening sensitivity, using a sample of 1901 post-menopausal women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer.

  10. Rapid, bilateral changes in growth rate and curvature during gravitropism of cucumber hypocotyls: implications for mechanism of growth control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cosgrove, D. J.

    1990-01-01

    The growth response of etiolated cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.) hypocotyls to gravitropic stimulation was examined by means of time-lapse photography and high-resolution analysis of surface expansion and curvature. In comparison with video analysis, the technique described here has five- to 20-fold better resolution; moreover, the mathematical fitting method (cubic splines) allows direct estimation of local and integrated curvature. After switching seedlings from a vertical to horizontal position, both upper and lower surfaces of the stem reacted after a lag of about 11 min with a two- to three-fold increase in surface expansion rate on the lower side and a cessation of expansion, or slight compression, on the upper surface. This growth asymmetry was initiated simultaneously along the length of the hypocotyl, on both upper and lower surfaces, and did not migrate basipetally from the apex. Later stages in the gravitropic response involved a complex reversal of the growth asymmetry, with the net result being a basipetal migration of the curved region. This secondary growth reversal may reflect oscillatory and/or self-regulatory behaviour of growing cells. With some qualifications, the kinetics and pattern of growth response are consistent with a mechanism involving hormone redistribution, although they do not prove such a mechanism. The growth kinetics require a growth mechanism which can be stimulated by two- to three-fold or completely inhibited within a few minutes.

  11. Experimental evolution alters the rate and temporal pattern of population growth in Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a lethal fungal pathogen of amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voyles, Jamie; Johnson, Leah R; Briggs, Cheryl J; Cashins, Scott D; Alford, Ross A; Berger, Lee; Skerratt, Lee F; Speare, Rick; Rosenblum, Erica Bree

    2014-09-01

    Virulence of infectious pathogens can be unstable and evolve rapidly depending on the evolutionary dynamics of the organism. Experimental evolution can be used to characterize pathogen evolution, often with the underlying objective of understanding evolution of virulence. We used experimental evolution techniques (serial transfer experiments) to investigate differential growth and virulence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a fungal pathogen that causes amphibian chytridiomycosis. We tested two lineages of Bd that were derived from a single cryo-archived isolate; one lineage (P10) was passaged 10 times, whereas the second lineage (P50) was passaged 50 times. We quantified time to zoospore release, maximum zoospore densities, and timing of zoospore activity and then modeled population growth rates. We also conducted exposure experiments with a susceptible amphibian species, the common green tree frog (Litoria caerulea) to test the differential pathogenicity. We found that the P50 lineage had shorter time to zoospore production (T min ), faster rate of sporangia death (d s ), and an overall greater intrinsic population growth rate (λ). These patterns of population growth in vitro corresponded with higher prevalence and intensities of infection in exposed Litoria caerulea, although the differences were not significant. Our results corroborate studies that suggest that Bd may be able to evolve relatively rapidly. Our findings also challenge the general assumption that pathogens will always attenuate in culture because shifts in Bd virulence may depend on laboratory culturing practices. These findings have practical implications for the laboratory maintenance of Bd isolates and underscore the importance of understanding the evolution of virulence in amphibian chytridiomycosis.

  12. Calculating second derivatives of population growth rates for ecology and evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shyu, Esther; Caswell, Hal

    2014-05-01

    1. Second derivatives of the population growth rate measure the curvature of its response to demographic, physiological or environmental parameters. The second derivatives quantify the response of sensitivity results to perturbations, provide a classification of types of selection and provide one way to calculate sensitivities of the stochastic growth rate. 2. Using matrix calculus, we derive the second derivatives of three population growth rate measures: the discrete-time growth rate λ, the continuous-time growth rate r = log λ and the net reproductive rate R 0 , which measures per-generation growth. 3. We present a suite of formulae for the second derivatives of each growth rate and show how to compute these derivatives with respect to projection matrix entries and to lower-level parameters affecting those matrix entries. 4. We also illustrate several ecological and evolutionary applications for these second derivative calculations with a case study for the tropical herb Calathea ovandensis .

  13. When evolution is the solution to pollution: Key principles, and lessons from rapid repeated adaptation of killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    For most species, evolutionary adaptation is not expected to be sufficiently rapid to buffer the effects of human-mediated environmental changes. Yet large persistent populations of small bodied fish residing in some of the most contaminated estuaries of the US have provided some...

  14. Growth of the World Population in the Past 12,000 Years and Its Link to the Economic Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Nielsen, Ron W

    2016-01-01

    Abstract. Data describing the growth of the world population in the past 12,000 yearsare analysed. It is shown that,if unchecked, population does not increase exponentially but hyperbolically. This analysis reveals three approximately-determined episodes of hyperbolic growth: 10,000-500 BC, AD 500-1200 and AD 1400-1950, representing a total of about 89% of the past 12,000 years. It also reveals three demographic transitions: 500 BC-AD 500, AD 1200-1400 and AD 1950-present, representing the re...

  15. Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.; Veblen, Thomas T; Smith, Jeremy M.; Kueppers, Lara M.

    2017-01-01

    Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively.Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers.Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forest and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine.Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.

  16. Rapid growth of phosphorus-rich olivine in mantle xenolith from Middle Atlas Mountains (Morocco, Africa)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baziotis, Ioannis; Mavrogonatos, Konstantinos; Flemetakis, Stamatios; Papoutsa, Angeliki; Klemme, Stephan; Berndt, Jasper; Asimow, Paul

    2016-04-01

    Phosphorus(P)-rich zones in olivine may reflect incorporation of P in excess of equilibrium partitioning during rapid growth (e.g. Milman-Barris et al. 2008). We investigated a mantle xenolith from Middle Atlas Mountains (Morocco) by optical microscopy and electron microprobe. It contains spinel-bearing lherzolite and orthopyroxenite layers, cross-cut by veins dominated by glass and secondary phases including P-rich olivines. The host lava, presumed to be alkali basalt (El Messbahi et al. 2015), is present on the margins of the hand sample but not included in our thin section. The studied melt veins (MV) generally contain Ol+Gl+Cpx+Pl+Spl±Ap. Olivines in the MV have (Fo72.1-83.4) with 0.02-0.3 wt.% P2O5; olivines with P2O5 >0.1 wt.% are Fo75.3 -82.8. Some olivine grains are inclusion-free; others contain rounded glass inclusions or subhedral spinel or ilmenite inclusions. Olivines is generally found in contact with plagioclase and glass. Glass (5-15 vol%) has variable composition with P2O5 up to 1.52 wt.%, K2O 1.65-2.37 wt%, CaO 6.39-9.55 wt%, Na2O 0.78-6.70 wt% and SiO2 45.2-49.6 wt%. Where glass is in contact with matrix olivine, Fe-rich outer rims on olivine indicate mineral-melt reaction. In MgO variation diagrams, glass compositions display a coherent single trend for all oxides, with the exception of a discrete low-Na group. Clinopyroxene is present both as isolated subhedral to euhedral crystals within the MV and as replacive rims on matrix minerals. Very fine-grained dendritic clinopyroxene quench crystals up to 10 μm long are also present. Plagioclase occurs as prismatic, flow-oriented crystals parallel or sub-parallel to the layering. Spinel shows anhedral and euhedral shapes and occurs both as inclusions in olivine and as discrete grains associated with plagioclase and glass. Spinel in contact with glass shows a spongy outer rim and normal zonation towards Fe-rich rim compositions. Apatite is found mostly as very small crystals embedded in glass. High

  17. Generation time, net reproductive rate, and growth in stage-age-structured populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steiner, Uli; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Coulson, Tim

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Major insights into the relationship between life-history features and fitness have come from Lotka's proof that population growth rate is determined by the level (expected amount) of reproduction and the average timing of reproduction of an individual. But this classical result is limited...... to age-structured populations. Here we generalize this result to populations structured by stage and age by providing a new, unique measure of reproductive timing (Tc) that, along with net reproductive rate (R0), has a direct mathematical relationship to and approximates growth rate (r). We use simple...... features of the life history determine population growth rate r and reveal a complex interplay of trait dynamics, timing, and level of reproduction. Our results contribute to a new framework of population and evolutionary dynamics in stage-and-age-structured populations....

  18. Galaxy interactions trigger rapid black hole growth: An unprecedented view from the Hyper Suprime-Cam survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goulding, Andy D.; Greene, Jenny E.; Bezanson, Rachel; Greco, Johnny; Johnson, Sean; Leauthaud, Alexie; Matsuoka, Yoshiki; Medezinski, Elinor; Price-Whelan, Adrian M.

    2018-01-01

    Collisions and interactions between gas-rich galaxies are thought to be pivotal stages in their formation and evolution, causing the rapid production of new stars, and possibly serving as a mechanism for fueling supermassive black holes (BHs). Harnessing the exquisite spatial resolution (˜0{^''.}5) afforded by the first ˜170 deg2 of the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) survey, we present our new constraints on the importance of galaxy-galaxy major mergers (1 : 4) in growing BHs throughout the last ˜8 Gyr. Utilizing mid-infrared observations in the WISE all-sky survey, we robustly select active galactic nuclei (AGN) and mass-matched control galaxy samples, totaling ˜140000 spectroscopically confirmed systems at i < 22 mag. We identify galaxy interaction signatures using a novel machine-learning random forest decision tree technique allowing us to select statistically significant samples of major mergers, minor mergers / irregular systems, and non-interacting galaxies. We use these samples to show that galaxies undergoing mergers are a factor of ˜2-7 more likely to contain luminous obscured AGN than non-interacting galaxies, and this is independent of both stellar mass and redshift to z < 0.9. Furthermore, based on our comparison of AGN fractions in mass-matched samples, we determine that the most luminous AGN population (LAGN ≳ 1045 erg s-1) systematically reside in merging systems over non-interacting galaxies. Our findings show that galaxy-galaxy interactions do, on average, trigger luminous AGN activity substantially more often than in secularly evolving non-interacting galaxies, and we further suggest that the BH growth rate may be closely tied to the dynamical time of the merger system.

  19. Galaxy interactions trigger rapid black hole growth: An unprecedented view from the Hyper Suprime-Cam survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goulding, Andy D.; Greene, Jenny E.; Bezanson, Rachel; Greco, Johnny; Johnson, Sean; Leauthaud, Alexie; Matsuoka, Yoshiki; Medezinski, Elinor; Price-Whelan, Adrian M.

    2017-12-01

    Collisions and interactions between gas-rich galaxies are thought to be pivotal stages in their formation and evolution, causing the rapid production of new stars, and possibly serving as a mechanism for fueling supermassive black holes (BHs). Harnessing the exquisite spatial resolution (˜0{^''.}5) afforded by the first ˜170 deg2 of the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) survey, we present our new constraints on the importance of galaxy-galaxy major mergers (1 : 4) in growing BHs throughout the last ˜8 Gyr. Utilizing mid-infrared observations in the WISE all-sky survey, we robustly select active galactic nuclei (AGN) and mass-matched control galaxy samples, totaling ˜140000 spectroscopically confirmed systems at i forest decision tree technique allowing us to select statistically significant samples of major mergers, minor mergers / irregular systems, and non-interacting galaxies. We use these samples to show that galaxies undergoing mergers are a factor of ˜2-7 more likely to contain luminous obscured AGN than non-interacting galaxies, and this is independent of both stellar mass and redshift to z based on our comparison of AGN fractions in mass-matched samples, we determine that the most luminous AGN population (LAGN ≳ 1045 erg s-1) systematically reside in merging systems over non-interacting galaxies. Our findings show that galaxy-galaxy interactions do, on average, trigger luminous AGN activity substantially more often than in secularly evolving non-interacting galaxies, and we further suggest that the BH growth rate may be closely tied to the dynamical time of the merger system.

  20. Noise-driven growth rate gain in clonal cellular populations

    OpenAIRE

    Hashimoto, Mikihiro; Nozoe, Takashi; Nakaoka, Hidenori; Okura, Reiko; Akiyoshi, Sayo; Kaneko, Kunihiko; Kussell, Edo; Wakamoto, Yuichi

    2016-01-01

    Differences between individuals exist even in the absence of genetic differences, e.g., in identical twins. Over the last decade, experiments have shown that even genetically identical microbes exhibit large cell-to-cell differences. In particular, the timing of cell division events is highly variable between single bacterial cells. The effect of this variability on long-term growth and survival of bacteria, however, remains elusive. Here, we present a striking finding showing that a bacteria...

  1. Population structure and growth of polydorid polychaetes that infest ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Polydorid polychaetes can infest cultured abalone thereby reducing productivity. In order to effectively control these pests, their reproductive biology must be understood. The population dynamics and reproduction of polydorids infesting abalone Haliotis midae from two farms in South Africa is described using a ...

  2. Population growth, urban expansion, and private forestry in western Oregon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey D. Kline; David L. Azuma; Ralph J. Alig

    2004-01-01

    Private forestlands in the United States face increasing pressures from growing populations, resulting in greater numbers of people living in closer proximity to forests. What often is called the "wildland/urban interface" is characterized by expansion of residential and other developed land uses onto forested landscapes in a manner that threatens forestlands...

  3. Mortality risks and limits to population growth of fishers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rick A. Sweitzer; Viorel D. Popescu; Craig M. Thompson; Kathryn L. Purcell; Reginald H. Barrett; Greta M. Wengert; Mourad W. Gabriel; Leslie W. Woods

    2015-01-01

    Fishers (Pekania pennanti) in the west coast states of Washington, Oregon, and California, USA have not recovered from population declines and the United States Fish and Wildlife Service has proposed options for listing them as threatened. Our objectives were to evaluate differences in survival and mortality risk from natural (e.g., predation, disease, injuries,...

  4. Effect of convective flow on stable dendritic growth in rapid solidification of a binary alloy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galenko, P. K.; Danilov, D. A.; Reuther, K.; Alexandrov, D. V.; Rettenmayr, M.; Herlach, D. M.

    2017-01-01

    A model for anisotropic growth of a dendritic crystal in a binary mixture under non-isothermal conditions is presented. A criterion for a stable growth mode is given for the dendrite tip as a function of the thermal Péclet number and the ratio between the velocities of dendrite growth and solute diffusion in the liquid bulk. Limiting cases of known criteria for anisotropic dendrite growth at low and high growth Péclet numbers are provided. The inclusion of forced convective flow extends the range of theoretical predictions, especially to low growth velocities, thus eliminating systematic discrepancies between earlier models and observed experimental data, as shown by a comparison of model predictions with measured growth velocities in Ti-55 at% Al alloys solidified under electromagnetic levitation.

  5. Rapid increase in fibroblast growth factor 21 in protein malnutrition and its impact on growth and lipid metabolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozaki, Yori; Saito, Kenji; Nakazawa, Kyoko; Konishi, Morichika; Itoh, Nobuyuki; Hakuno, Fumihiko; Takahashi, Shin-Ichiro; Kato, Hisanori; Takenaka, Asako

    2015-11-14

    Protein malnutrition promotes hepatic steatosis, decreases insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-I production and retards growth. To identify new molecules involved in such changes, we conducted DNA microarray analysis on liver samples from rats fed an isoenergetic low-protein diet for 8 h. We identified the fibroblast growth factor 21 gene (Fgf21) as one of the most strongly up-regulated genes under conditions of acute protein malnutrition (P<0·05, false-discovery rate<0·001). In addition, amino acid deprivation increased Fgf21 mRNA levels in rat liver-derived RL-34 cells (P<0·01). These results suggested that amino acid limitation directly increases Fgf21 expression. FGF21 is a polypeptide hormone that regulates glucose and lipid metabolism. FGF21 also promotes a growth hormone-resistance state and suppresses IGF-I in transgenic mice. Therefore, to determine further whether Fgf21 up-regulation causes hepatic steatosis and growth retardation after IGF-I decrease in protein malnutrition, we fed an isoenergetic low-protein diet to Fgf21-knockout (KO) mice. Fgf21-KO did not rescue growth retardation and reduced plasma IGF-I concentration in these mice. Fgf21-KO mice showed greater epididymal white adipose tissue weight and increased hepatic TAG and cholesterol levels under protein malnutrition conditions (P<0·05). Overall, the results showed that protein deprivation directly increased Fgf21 expression. However, growth retardation and decreased IGF-I were not mediated by increased FGF21 expression in protein malnutrition. Furthermore, FGF21 up-regulation rather appears to have a protective effect against obesity and hepatic steatosis in protein-malnourished animals.

  6. A tale of three regions : influence of highway investments on population and traffic growth in Virginia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    To what extent may highway investments shape population growth and land development? To answer this question, three decades of data were examined in the Virginia locations of Fairfax County, Spotsylvania County, and Newport News. In each location, a ...

  7. Rapid Economic Growth and Natural Gas Consumption Nexus: Looking forward from Perspective of 11th Malaysian Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekhet, H. A.; Yasmin, T.

    2016-03-01

    The present study investigates the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption by incorporating CO2 emissions, natural gas consumption and population in Malaysia. Annual data and F-bound test and granger causality have applied to test the existence of long run relationship between the series. The results show that variables are cointegrated for long run relationship. The results also indicate that natural gas consumption is an important contributing factor to energy demand and hence economic growth in case of Malaysia. The causality analysis highlights that the feedback hypothesis exists between economic growth and energy consumption. While, conservative hypothesis is validated between natural gas consumption and economic growth which implies that economic growth will push natural gas consumption policies in future. This study opens up new direction for policy makers to formulate a comprehensive natural gas policy to sustain environment for long span of time in case to achieve 11th MP targets.

  8. Noise-Induced Transitions in a Population Growth Model Based on Size-Dependent Carrying Capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neeme Lumi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model with size-dependent carrying capacity is considered. The effect of a fluctuating environment on population growth is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. At intermediate values of population size the deterministic counterpart of the model behaves similarly to the Von Foerster model for human population, but at small and very large values of population size substantial differences occur. In the stochastic case, an exact analytical solution for the stationary probability distribution is found. It is established that variation of noise correlation time can cause noise-induced transitions between three different states of the system characterized by qualitatively different behaviors of the probability distributions of the population size. Also, it is shown that, in some regions of the system parameters, variation of the amplitude of environmental fluctuations can induce single unidirectional abrupt transitions of the mean population size.

  9. Shanghai: a study on the spatial growth of population and economy in a Chinese metropolitan area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, J

    1995-01-01

    In this study of the growth in population and industry in Shanghai, China, between the 1982 and 1990 censuses, data on administrative divisions was normalized through digitization and spatial analysis. Analysis focused on spatial units, intensity of growth, time period, distance, rate of growth, and direction of spatial growth. The trisection method divided the city into city proper, outskirts, and suburbs. The distance function method considered the distance from center city as a function: exponential, power, trigonometric, logarithmic, and polynomial. Population growth and employment in all sectors increased in the outskirts and suburbs and decreased in the city proper except tertiary sectors. Primary sector employment decreased in all three sections. Employment in the secondary increased faster in the outskirts and suburbs than the total rate of growth of population and employment. In the city secondary sector employment rates decreased faster than total population and employment rates. The tertiary sector had the highest rate of growth in all sections, and employment grew faster than secondary sector rates. Tertiary growth was highest in real estate, finance, and insurance. Industrial growth in the secondary sector was 160.2% in the suburbs, 156.6% in the outskirts, and 80.9% in the city. In the distance function analysis, industry expanded further out than the entire secondary sector. Commerce grew the fastest in areas 15.4 km from center city. Economic growth was faster after economic reforms in 1978. Growth was led by industry and followed by the secondary sector, the tertiary sector, and population. Industrial expansion resulted from inner pressure, political factors controlling size, the social and economic system, and the housing construction and distribution system. Initially sociopsychological factors affected urban concentration.

  10. Open Door Policy and China's Rapid Growth: Evidence from City-level Data

    OpenAIRE

    Shang-Jin Wei

    1993-01-01

    There is clear evidence that during 1980-90 more exports are positively associated with higher growth rates across Chinese cities. In comparison, in the late 1980s, the contribution to growth comes mainly from foreign investment. The contribution of foreign investment comes in the form of technological and managerial spillover across firms as opposed to an infusion of new capital. Finally, there is nothing magical about the high growth rates of Chinese coastal areas other than their effective...

  11. Survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of an important mesopredator: the northern raccoon.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth M Troyer

    Full Text Available Populations of mesopredators (mid-sized mammalian carnivores are expanding in size and range amid declining apex predator populations and ever-growing human presence, leading to significant ecological impacts. Despite their obvious importance, population dynamics have scarcely been studied for most mesopredator species. Information on basic population parameters and processes under a range of conditions is necessary for managing these species. Here we investigate survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of a widely distributed and abundant mesopredator, the northern raccoon (Procyon lotor, using Pradel's temporal symmetry models and >6 years of monthly capture-mark-recapture data collected in a protected area. Monthly apparent survival probability was higher for females (0.949, 95% CI = 0.936-0.960 than for males (0.908, 95% CI = 0.893-0.920, while monthly recruitment rate was higher for males (0.091, 95% CI = 0.078-0.106 than for females (0.054, 95% CI = 0.042-0.067. Finally, monthly realized population growth rate was 1.000 (95% CI = 0.996-1.004, indicating that our study population has reached a stable equilibrium in this relatively undisturbed habitat. There was little evidence for substantial temporal variation in population growth rate or its components. Our study is one of the first to quantify survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate of raccoons using long-term data and rigorous statistical models.

  12. Growth and population dynamics of Thalassodendron ciliatum in a Kenyan back-reef lagoon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duarte, C.M.; Hemminga, M.A.; Marbà, N.

    1996-01-01

    The size, rhizome growth, and demography of a Thalassodendron ciliatum (Forssk.) den Hartog population in a back-reef lagoon (Chale lagoon, Kenya), was examined using techniques based on age determinations. The results obtained reveal that vertical growth of the T. ciliatum shoots is very fast,

  13. Social security reform and population ageing in a two-sector growth model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groezen, Bas van; Meijdam, L.; Verbon, H.

    2002-01-01

    This paper analyses the e¤ects of reducing unfunded social security and population ageing on economic growth and welfare, both for a small open economy and for a closed economy. The economy consists of a service sector and a commodity sector. Productivity growth only occurs in the latter sector

  14. Social Security Reform and Population Ageing in a Two-Sector Growth Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Groezen, B.J.A.M.; Meijdam, A.C.; Verbon, H.A.A.

    2002-01-01

    This paper analyses the effects of reducing unfunded social security and population ageing on economic growth and welfare, both for a small open economy and for a closed economy.The economy consists of a service sector and a commodity sector.Productivity growth only occurs in the latter sector and

  15. World population growth and the role of annual energy use per capita.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J

    1998-09-01

    In the context of ongoing world population growth, no permanent growth in materials consumption can be sustained into the future. A sustainable future requires that the world's population stabilize. The author considers the possible coupling of the annual energy use per capita and the population growth rate for each region, and the consequences of such a connection if the world's population is to stabilize. Energy is used as a factor because it is a proactive agent in facilitating increases in the standard of living and changes in the social conditions thought to influence the fertility rate. Historical trends and near-term projections for energy use and population growth rate are used to indicate a possible future path for developing regions. Improvements in the efficiency of energy use and modest cultural changes are used in an example projection of coupled energy use and population growth. For each decade, the incremental increase in annual commercial energy use per capita and a corresponding decrease in population growth rate are chosen to continue the historical trends for developing regions of the world. This approach results in population changes which closely follow the projections of the World Bank for the period up to 2150. World energy use is projected to increase from about 9000 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) today to 15,000-21,000 Mtoe/a by the time the world's population has risen from 6 billion to about 12 billion in the 22nd century. The energy demands of each developing region are compared with potential, indigenous energy sources to determine whether each developing region may be able to cope with its increased energy demand without massive energy imports. The availability of readily moveable, cheap fuels will help the developing world make the transition to a more stable population with a decent standard of living.

  16. Individual growth and reproductive behavior in a newly established population of northern snakehead (Channa argus), Potomac River, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Andrew M. Gascho; Lapointe, Nicolas W. R.; Angermeier, Paul L.

    2010-01-01

    Northern snakehead (Channa argus) were first found in the Potomac River in 2004. In 2007, we documented feeding and reproductive behavior to better understand how this species is performing in this novel environment. From April to October, we used electrofishing surveys to collect data on growth, condition, and gonad weight of adult fish. Growth rates of young were measured on a daily basis for several weeks. Mean length-at-age for Potomac River northern snakehead was lower than for fish from China, Russia, and Uzbekistan. Fish condition was above average during spring and fall, but below average in summer. Below-average condition corresponded to periods of high spawning activity. Gonadosomatic index indicated that females began spawning at the end of April and continued through August. Peak spawning occurred at the beginning of June when average temperatures reached 26°C. Larval fish growth rate, after the transition to exogenous feeding, was 2.3 (SD ± 0.7) mm (total length, TL) per day. Although Potomac River northern snakehead exhibited lower overall growth rates when compared to other populations, these fish demonstrated plasticity in timing of reproduction and rapid larval growth rates. Such life history characteristics likely contribute to the success of northern snakehead in its new environment and limit managers’ options for significant control of its invasion.

  17. The growth of XXX females: population-based studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratcliffe, S G; Pan, H; McKie, M

    1994-01-01

    Longitudinal measurements of height, sitting height and leg length are compared between 11 XXX girls identified by cytogenetic screening, and 16 chromosomally normal controls from the same population using a nonparametric method. While height velocity did not differ between the two groups either during the pubertal or the mid-childhood spurts, leg length velocity was significantly increased during the mid-childhood spurt, between 4 and 9 years of age. A further contribution to the increased leg length came from the slower decline in leg length velocity at the end of the pubertal spurt. The possible mechanisms involved in these changes are discussed.

  18. Genetic Parameter Estimation in Seedstock Swine Population for Growth Performances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae Gwan Choi

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters that are to be used for across-herd genetic evaluations of seed stock pigs at GGP level. Performance data with pedigree information collected from swine breeder farms in Korea were provided by Korea Animal Improvement Association (AIAK. Performance data were composed of final body weights at test days and ultrasound measures of back fat thickness (BF, rib eye area (EMA and retail cut percentage (RCP. Breeds of swine tested were Landrace, Yorkshire and Duroc. Days to 90 kg body weight (DAYS90 were estimated with linear function of age and ADG calculated from body weights at test days. Ultrasound measures were taken with A-mode ultrasound scanners by trained technicians. Number of performance records after censoring outliers and keeping records pigs only born from year 2000 were of 78,068 Duroc pigs, 101,821 Landrace pigs and 281,421 Yorkshire pigs. Models included contemporary groups defined by the same herd and the same seasons of births of the same year, which was regarded as fixed along with the effect of sex for all traits and body weight at test day as a linear covariate for ultrasound measures. REML estimation was processed with REMLF90 program. Heritability estimates were 0.40, 0.32, 0.21 0.39 for DAYS90, ADG, BF, EMA, RCP, respectively for Duroc population. Respective heritability estimates for Landrace population were 0.43, 0.41, 0.22, and 0.43 and for Yorkshire population were 0.36, 0.38, 0.22, and 0.42. Genetic correlation coefficients of DAYS90 with BF, EMA, or RCP were estimated to be 0.00 to 0.09, −0.15 to −0.25, 0.22 to 0.28, respectively for three breeds populations. Genetic correlation coefficients estimated between BF and EMA was −0.33 to −0.39. Genetic correlation coefficient estimated between BF and RCP was high and negative (−0.78 to −0.85 but the environmental correlation coefficients between these two traits was medium and negative (near −0

  19. Colorimetry provides a rapid objective measurement of de novo hair growth rate in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzung, Tien-Yi; Yang, Chia-Yi; Huang, Yung-Chang; Kao, Fu-Jen

    2009-11-01

    Depilated mice have been used as a test platform for hair growth-regulating agents. However, currently available assessment tools for hair growth in mice are less than ideal. Tristimulus colorimetry of the fur color of depilated agouti, albino, and black mice with L*, a*, and b* values were performed daily until the full growth of pelage. Using light-emitting diode (LED) irradiation (650 and 890 nm) with a daily dose of 3.5 J/cm(2) as hair growth regulators, the hair growth rates observed by the global assessment were compared with those derived from colorimetry. In contrast to a* and b* values, L* values changed more drastically over time in the anagen phase regardless of fur color. Unlike the inhibitory effect of 650 nm irradiation, LED of 890 nm promoted de novo hair regrowth in mice. The difference in hair growth rates detected by colorimetry paralleled the observation made by the global assessment. The L* value of fur color obtained by tristimulus colorimetry was a sensitive yet quantitative indicator of de novo hair growth, and could be used to project the hair growth rate in mice.

  20. Assessing the Impact of Population Growth, Climate Change, and Land Use Change on Water Resources in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, N.; Cherkauer, K. A.

    2014-12-01

    India is poised to become the most populous country in the world by 2019 and reach a population of over 2 billion by 2050 based on current growth rates. It is also a region which will be under severe socio-economic and environmental stress if mitigation efforts are not adapted. In the past 10 years the population of India has grown by an average rate of 17 million people per year. In addition to unprecedented population growth, rapid urbanization and industrialization are straining the overburdened environmental system. This rapid growth in population, urbanization and industrialized will result in increased demand for food, requiring expansion of agricultural resources. Since total agricultural land in India has been relatively constant over the past 10 years the demand for additional food has to be partly met by enhanced production on existing land. Arable land in India has declined by around 3% according to FAOSTAT while the total agricultural area under irrigation has increased by about 9% thus further straining its water resources. In addition projections for future climate indicate that India is one of the regions where water resources are expected to be negatively impacted. Total agriculture water withdrawal in India increased by approximately 18 % from 2000-2010 while the total per capita water withdrawal increased by over 9% from 2000-2010. Total freshwater withdrawal as percentage of renewable water resources was around 40% in 2010. In addition, recent mandates of biofuel policies in India are also expected to impact its water resources. The combined impact of these various factors on future water availability in India could be one of the most severe globally due its unprecedented increase in population, food production and industrialization. In this study we assess the impact of land use and climate change on water resources over southern India in the face of a growing population and interest in development of national biofuel supplies. We use

  1. Active population growth and immigration hypotheses in Western Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feld, S

    2000-03-01

    The paper examines, in respect of 12 Western European countries over a period of 20 years, the widely held view that any decline in their working population should be offset by greater reliance on immigrant labor. This research, based on demographic projections and forecasts regarding labor market participation rates by age and sex for each of the countries concerned, focuses on the two most likely scenarios. It appears that only Italy will be faced with a fall in its working population. All other western countries will either maintain the same level or, more generally, see their workforce grow substantially. Accordingly, the authors may safely assert that there is no risk of a shortage of workers between now and the year 2020, and that an increasing supply of labor will render reliance on a greater influx of immigrant workers unnecessary. The second part analyses changes in the structure of the demand for labor. The authors deal chiefly with the phenomenon of the concentration of foreign manpower in each sector, its flexibility and mobility in a context of unemployment, as well as the impact of new technologies and globalization on the main determinants of international migration of labor.

  2. The between-population genetic architecture of growth, maturation, and plasticity in Atlantic salmon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debes, Paul Vincent; Fraser, Dylan John; Yates, Matthew; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

    2014-04-01

    The between-population genetic architecture for growth and maturation has not been examined in detail for many animal species despite its central importance in understanding hybrid fitness. We studied the genetic architecture of population divergence in: (i) maturation probabilities at the same age; (ii) size at age and growth, while accounting for maturity status and sex; and (iii) growth plasticity in response to environmental factors, using divergent wild and domesticated Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Our work examined two populations and their multigenerational hybrids in a common experimental arrangement in which salinity and quantity of suspended sediments were manipulated to mimic naturally occurring environmental variation. Average specific growth rates across environments differed among crosses, maturity groups, and cross-by-maturity groups, but a growth-rate reduction in the presence of suspended sediments was equal for all groups. Our results revealed both additive and nonadditive outbreeding effects for size at age and for growth rates that differed with life stage, as well as the presence of different sex- and size-specific maturation probabilities between populations. The major implication of our work is that estimates of the genetic architecture of growth and maturation can be biased if one does not simultaneously account for temporal changes in growth and for different maturation probabilities between populations. Namely, these correlated traits interact differently within each population and between sexes and among generations, due to nonadditive effects and a level of independence in the genetic control for traits. Our results emphasize the challenges to investigating and predicting phenotypic changes resulting from between-population outbreeding.

  3. Molecular-level variation affects population growth in a butterfly metapopulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilkka Hanski

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics of natural populations are thought to be dominated by demographic and environmental processes with little influence of intraspecific genetic variation and natural selection, apart from inbreeding depression possibly reducing population growth in small populations. Here we analyse hundreds of well-characterised local populations in a large metapopulation of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia, which persists in a balance between stochastic local extinctions and recolonisations in a network of 4,000 discrete habitat patches. We show that the allelic composition of the glycolytic enzyme phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi has a significant effect on the growth of local populations, consistent with previously reported effects of allelic variation on flight metabolic performance and fecundity in the Glanville fritillary and Colias butterflies. The strength and the sign of the molecular effect on population growth are sensitive to the ecological context (the area and spatial connectivity of the habitat patches, which affects genotype-specific gene flow and the influence of migration on the dynamics of local populations. The biological significance of the results for Pgi is underscored by lack of any association between population growth and allelic variation at six other loci typed in the same material. In demonstrating, to our knowledge for the first time, that molecular variation in a candidate gene affects population growth, this study challenges the perception that differential performance of individual genotypes, leading to differential fitness, is irrelevant to population dynamics. These results also demonstrate that the spatial configuration of habitat and spatial dynamics of populations contribute to maintenance of Pgi polymorphism in this species.

  4. Population growth of Mexican free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana predates human agricultural activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cox Murray P

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Human activities, such as agriculture, hunting, and habitat modification, exert a significant effect on native species. Although many species have suffered population declines, increased population fragmentation, or even extinction in connection with these human impacts, others seem to have benefitted from human modification of their habitat. Here we examine whether population growth in an insectivorous bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana can be attributed to the widespread expansion of agriculture in North America following European settlement. Colonies of T. b. mexicana are extremely large (~106 individuals and, in the modern era, major agricultural insect pests form an important component of their food resource. It is thus hypothesized that the growth of these insectivorous bat populations was coupled to the expansion of agricultural land use in North America over the last few centuries. Results We sequenced one haploid and one autosomal locus to determine the rate and time of onset of population growth in T. b. mexicana. Using an approximate Maximum Likelihood method, we have determined that T. b. mexicana populations began to grow ~220 kya from a relatively small ancestral effective population size before reaching the large effective population size observed today. Conclusions Our analyses reject the hypothesis that T. b. mexicana populations grew in connection with the expansion of human agriculture in North America, and instead suggest that this growth commenced long before the arrival of humans. As T. brasiliensis is a subtropical species, we hypothesize that the observed signals of population growth may instead reflect range expansions of ancestral bat populations from southern glacial refugia during the tail end of the Pleistocene.

  5. From demographic dividend to demographic burden: The impact of population ageing on economic growth in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Gaag, N.L.; de Beer, J.A.A.

    2015-01-01

    In the coming years, the share of the working-age population in the total population will start to decline in all countries of the European Union. All other things remaining equal, this so-called demographic burden will have a downward effect on economic growth. This paper examines whether the

  6. Growth and physiological responses to varied environments among populations of Pinus ponderosa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianwei Zhang; Bert M. Cregg

    2005-01-01

    We investigated population responses in physiology, morphology, and growth of mature Pinus ponderosa trees to an environmental gradient across Nebraska, USA. Ten populations from western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming were grown in three 26-year-old provenance tests from the warmest and wettest site in the east (Plattsmouth) to the intermediate site in...

  7. The effects of declining population growth on the demand for housing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas C. Marcin

    1974-01-01

    Declining population growth and unprecedented changes in the age structure of the population in the next several decades will profoundly affect housing demand in the next 50 years. A decline in housing demand and substantial change in the type of housing in demand are likely to occur by 1990.

  8. Studies of Health and Long-Term Care Expenditure Growth in Aging Populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.A.M. de Meijer (Claudine)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractIn recent decades, elderly populations in most developed countries have increased considerably, both in absolute and relative terms. This growth of the elderly share of the population is mainly attributable to two demographic transitions: the (simultaneous) increase in longevity and

  9. Homogenous Population Genetic Structure of the Non-Native Raccoon Dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides in Europe as a Result of Rapid Population Expansion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Drygala

    Full Text Available The extent of gene flow during the range expansion of non-native species influences the amount of genetic diversity retained in expanding populations. Here, we analyse the population genetic structure of the raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides in north-eastern and central Europe. This invasive species is of management concern because it is highly susceptible to fox rabies and an important secondary host of the virus. We hypothesized that the large number of introduced animals and the species' dispersal capabilities led to high population connectivity and maintenance of genetic diversity throughout the invaded range. We genotyped 332 tissue samples from seven European countries using 16 microsatellite loci. Different algorithms identified three genetic clusters corresponding to Finland, Denmark and a large 'central' population that reached from introduction areas in western Russia to northern Germany. Cluster assignments provided evidence of long-distance dispersal. The results of an Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis supported a scenario of equal effective population sizes among different pre-defined populations in the large central cluster. Our results are in line with strong gene flow and secondary admixture between neighbouring demes leading to reduced genetic structuring, probably a result of its fairly rapid population expansion after introduction. The results presented here are remarkable in the sense that we identified a homogenous genetic cluster inhabiting an area stretching over more than 1500km. They are also relevant for disease management, as in the event of a significant rabies outbreak, there is a great risk of a rapid virus spread among raccoon dog populations.

  10. Endogenous population growth and the exploitation of renewable resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prskawetz, A; Feichtinger, G; Wirl, F

    1994-01-01

    The authors consider a demo-economic model where the economy consists of two sectors ("hunting and farming" and "industry"), and both sectors depend directly or indirectly on the explanation of a renewable resource. The primary sector harvests a renewable resource (fish, corn, or wood) which is used as the input into industrial production, the secondary sector of our economy. Labor is divided up between these two sectors under the assumption of competitive labor markets. A system of two nonlinear differential equations for the resources and the population is studied by phase space analysis. Using the Hopf bifurcation theorem, the authors obtain two different routes to limit cycles and prove numerically the existence of a stable Malthusian limit cycle.

  11. Forecasting the U.S. Population with the Gompertz Growth Curve

    OpenAIRE

    Pflaumer, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Population forecasts have received a great deal of attention during the past few years. They are widely used for planning and policy purposes. In this paper, the Gompertz growth curve is proposed to forecast the U.S. population. In order to evaluate its forecast error, population estimates from 1890 to 2010 are compared with the corresponding predictions for a variety of launch years, estimation periods, and forecast horizons. Various descriptive measures of these forecast errors are presente...

  12. Population growth rate determinants for Arbacia: Evaluating ecological relevance of toxicity test endpoints

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nacci, D.; Gleason, T.; Munns, W.R. Jr. [Environmental Protection Agency, Narragansett, RI (United States). Environmental Research Lab.

    1995-12-31

    A population dynamics model for the sea urchin, Arbacia punctulata, was recently developed incorporating life stage endpoints frequently measured in acute and chronic toxicity studies. Model elasticity analysis was used to demonstrate that population growth rate was influenced most by adult survival and least by early life stage success, calling into question the ecological relevance of results from standardized Arbacia fertilization and larval development toxicity tests. Two approaches were used to continue this evaluation. Actual and hypothetical dose-response curves for toxicant exposures over multiple life stages were used to evaluate contributions to population growth rate of stage-specific toxicant effects. Additionally, relationships between critical life stages were developed from laboratory data for Arbacia. The results of this analysis underscore the importance of understanding both endpoint sensitivity to toxicants and sensitivity of population growth rate to test endpoints in determining the ecological relevance of toxicity tests results.

  13. Incubation behavior of silicon nanowire growth investigated by laser-assisted rapid heating

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ryu, Sang-gil; Kim, Eunpa; Grigoropoulos, Costas P., E-mail: cgrigoro@berkeley.edu [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720-1740 (United States); Allen, Frances I.; Minor, Andrew M. [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720-1740 (United States); National Center for Electron Microscopy, Molecular Foundry, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720 (United States); Hwang, David J. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York 11794 (United States)

    2016-08-15

    We investigate the early stage of silicon nanowire growth by the vapor-liquid-solid mechanism using laser-localized heating combined with ex-situ chemical mapping analysis by energy-filtered transmission electron microscopy. By achieving fast heating and cooling times, we can precisely determine the nucleation times for nanowire growth. We find that the silicon nanowire nucleation process occurs on a time scale of ∼10 ms, i.e., orders of magnitude faster than the times reported in investigations using furnace processes. The rate-limiting step for silicon nanowire growth at temperatures in the vicinity of the eutectic temperature is found to be the gas reaction and/or the silicon crystal growth process, whereas at higher temperatures it is the rate of silicon diffusion through the molten catalyst that dictates the nucleation kinetics.

  14. Rapid Adaptation of a Daphnia magna Population to Metal Stress Is Associated with Heterozygote Excess.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochmuth, Jennifer D; De Meester, Luc; Pereira, Cecília M S; Janssen, Colin R; De Schamphelaere, Karel A C

    2015-08-04

    Although natural populations can harbor evolutionary potential to adapt genetically to chemical stress, it is often thought that natural selection leads to a general reduction of genetic diversity and involves costs. Here, a 10 week microevolution experiment was conducted with a genetically diverse and representative sample of one natural Daphnia magna population that was exposed to copper and zinc. Both Cu- and Zn-selected populations developed a significantly higher metal tolerance (i.e., genetic adaptation), indicated by higher reproduction probabilities of clonal lines in Cu and Zn exposures than observed for the original and control populations. The complete recovery of the population densities after 10 weeks of Zn selection (following an initial decrease of 74%) illustrates an example of evolutionary rescue. Microsatellite genotyping revealed a decrease in clonal diversity but no change in allelic richness, and showed an excess in heterozygosity in the Cu- and Zn-selected populations compared to the control and original populations. The excess heterozygosity in metal-selected populations that we observed has important consequences for risk assessment, as it contributes to the maintenance of a higher allelic diversity under multigenerational chemical exposure. This study is, to our knowledge, the first report of an increase in heterozygosity following multigenerational exposure to metal stress, despite a decline in clonal diversity. In a follow-up study with the Zn-selected populations, we observed no effect of Zn selection on the tolerance to heat and cyanobacteria. However, we observed higher tolerance to Cd in the Zn-selected than in the original and control populations if the 20% effective concentration of Cd was considered (cross-tolerance). Our results suggest only limited costs of adaptation but future research is needed to evaluate the adaptive potential of metal-selected populations to novel stressors and to determine to what extent increased

  15. A spatial analysis of patterns of growth and concentration of population based on homogeneous population censuses: Spain (1877-2001

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xavier Franch Auladell

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This work constitutes a contribution to the analysis of long term patterns of population concentration applied to the case of Spain. The proposed methodology is based on the homogenisation of both data and administrative units which takes the municipal structure of the 2001 census as its base reference. This work seeks to show how applying spatial analysis techniques to this type of homogeneous data series allows us to make more detailed studies of population patterns within a given territory. The most important conclusions that we reached was that, in Spain, sustained population growth has followed a spatial pattern that has become increasingly consolidated over time. The tendencies observed have produced an uneven distribution of population within the national territory marked by the existence of a series of well-defined, and often very localised, areas that spread beyond the limits of the official administrative boundaries.

  16. Rapid Growth of Psychology Programs in Turkey: Undergraduate Curriculum and Structural Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sümer, Nebi

    2016-01-01

    Similar to the other developing countries, undergraduate psychology programs in Turkish universities have rapidly grown in the last two decades. Although this sharp increment signifies the need for psychologists, it has also caused a number of challenges for effective teaching of psychology. The department chairs (N = 42) were interviewed with an…

  17. Undergraduate Chemistry Education in Chinese Universities: Addressing the Challenges of Rapid Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gou, Xiaojun; Cao, Haishi

    2010-01-01

    In the past 30 years, university-level chemistry education in China has been experiencing significant changes because of the rapid expansion of its university education system. These changes are reflected in improvements to the existing education goals, classroom teaching methods, textbooks, teaching facilities, teacher profiles, lab activities,…

  18. Diversity as valued and troubled: social identities and demographic categories in understandings of rapid urban growth in Vanuatu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widmer, Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    This paper deals with the simultaneous mainstreaming and diversification of ni-Vanuatu social categories associated with the ways in which population growth is understood as a possible crisis in both demographic knowledge and everyday ni-Vanuatu knowledge. The author is interested in understanding the downplaying but primarily the amplification of difference with respect to place, generation and gender identities. The relationship between reproduction, social reproduction and the multiple meanings of modernity is at issue. In the expert knowledge of demography that proffers advice for the ni-Vanuatu state, it is the lack of modern development - in the form of adequate biomedical birth control, western education, and the equality of women - that is the implicit cause of population growth. Yet, many ni-Vanuatu see population growth as tied to the troubles that arise from the dilution of traditional social forms: there is too much modernity. In both demographic and ni-Vanuatu everyday narrations of the potential population crisis, diversification and mainstreaming take place and vulnerabilities are produced.

  19. The Commission on Population Growth and the American Future: its origins, operations, and aftermath.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westoff, C F

    1973-10-01

    The origins, organization, and operation of the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future and the response to its report are described. The origins of the Commission are traced to a concern with the consequences of U.S. population growth on the part of such key individuals as John D. Rockefeller 3rd and Paul Ehrlich. Because the Commission was a statutory creation of Congress, its membership included 4 Congressmen in addition to 20 distinguished citizens representing a spectrum of groups and views. The evaluation of the consequences of growth, as opposed to the means of reducing fertility, became the major concern of the research effort. Several issues led to differences within the Commission: 1) A narrow versus a broad definition of the scope of the report; 2) differing perceptions of the population problem as manifested by the ecological view, the "unwanted fertility" school, and the social justice view. The social science work contracted by the Commission had a significant impact on the final report's substance: 1) the demographic work on population projections was crucial to the analysis of the consequences of growth; 2) evaluating the demographic capability of national "growth center strategy" had an influence; and 3) the need to eliminate unwanted fertility was confirmed as a necessary priority. The basic thrust of the Commission's report was to recomment slowing growth in order to maximize the quality of life.

  20. Quantifying long-term population growth rates of threatened bull trout: challenges, lessons learned, and opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budy, Phaedra; Bowerman, Tracy; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Conner, Mary; Schaller, Howard

    2017-01-01

    Temporal symmetry models (TSM) represent advances in the analytical application of mark–recapture data to population status assessments. For a population of char, we employed 10 years of active and passive mark–recapture data to quantify population growth rates using different data sources and analytical approaches. Estimates of adult population growth rate were 1.01 (95% confidence interval = 0.84–1.20) using a temporal symmetry model (λTSM), 0.96 (0.68–1.34) based on logistic regressions of annual snorkel data (λA), and 0.92 (0.77–1.11) from redd counts (λR). Top-performing TSMs included an increasing time trend in recruitment (f) and changes in capture probability (p). There was only a 1% chance the population decreased ≥50%, and a 10% chance it decreased ≥30% (λMCMC; based on Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure). Size structure was stable; however, the adult population was dominated by small adults, and over the study period there was a decline in the contribution of large adults to total biomass. Juvenile condition decreased with increasing adult densities. Utilization of these different information sources provided a robust weight-of-evidence approach to identifying population status and potential mechanisms driving changes in population growth rates.

  1. Interdiffusion and growth of chromium silicide at the interface of Cr/Si(As) system during rapid thermal annealing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benkherbache, H. [Universite de M' Sila, (28000) M' Sila (Algeria); Merabet, A., E-mail: merabet_abdelali@yahoo.f [Laboratoire Physique et Mecanique des Materiaux Metalliques, Departement d' O.M.P., Faculte des Sciences de l' Ingenieur, Universite de Setif, (19000) Setif (Algeria)

    2010-02-26

    In this work, the solid-state reaction between a thin film of chromium and silicon has been studied using Rutherford backscattering spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction and the sheet resistance measurements. The thickness of 100 nm chromium layer has been deposited by electronic bombardment on Si (100) substrates, part of them had previously been implanted with arsenic ions of 10{sup 15} at/cm{sup 2} doses and an energy of 100 keV. The samples were heat treated under rapid thermal annealing at 500 {sup o}C for time intervals ranging from 15 to 60 s. The rapid thermal annealing leads to a reaction at the interface Cr/Si inducing the formation and the growth of the unique silicide CrSi{sub 2}, but no other phase can be detected. For samples implanted with arsenic, the saturation value of the sheet resistance is approximately 1.5 times higher than for the non-implanted case.

  2. Plant defences limit herbivore population growth by changing predator-prey interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kersch-Becker, Mônica F; Kessler, André; Thaler, Jennifer S

    2017-09-13

    Plant quality and predators are important factors affecting herbivore population growth, but how they interact to regulate herbivore populations is not well understood. We manipulated jasmonate-induced plant resistance, exposure to the natural predator community and herbivore density to test how these factors jointly and independently affect herbivore population growth. On low-resistance plants, the predator community was diverse and abundant, promoting high predator consumption rates. On high-resistance plants, the predator community was less diverse and abundant, resulting in low predator consumption rate. Plant resistance only directly regulated aphid population growth on predator-excluded plants. When predators were present, plant resistance indirectly regulated herbivore population growth by changing the impact of predators on the herbivorous prey. A possible mechanism for the interaction between plant resistance and predation is that methyl salicylate, a herbivore-induced plant volatile attractive to predators, was more strongly induced in low-resistance plants. Increased plant resistance reduced predator attractant lures, preventing predators from locating their prey. Low-resistance plants may regulate herbivore populations via predators by providing reliable information on prey availability and increasing the effectiveness of predators. © 2017 The Author(s).

  3. Influence of Plant Population and Nitrogen-Fertilizer at Various Levels on Growth and Growth Efficiency of Maize

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. I. Tajul

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Field experiments were conducted to evaluate plant population and N-fertilizer effects on yield and yield components of maize (Zea mays L.. Three levels of plant populations (53000, 66000, and 800000 plants ha−1 corresponding to spacings of 75 × 25, 60 × 25, and 50 × 25 cm and 4 doses of N (100, 140, 180, and 220 kg ha−1 were the treatment variables. Results revealed that plant growth, light interception (LI, yield attributes, and grain yield varied significantly due to the variations in population density and N-rates. Crop growth rate (CGR was the highest with the population of 80,000 ha−1 receiving 220 kg N ha−1, while relative growth rate (RGR showed an opposite trend of CGR. Light absorption was maximum when most of densely populated plant received the highest amount of N (220 kg N ha−1. Response of soil-plant-analysis development (SPAD value as well as N-content to N-rates was found significant. Plant height was the maximum at the lowest plant density with the highest amount of N. Plants that received 180 kg N ha−1 with 80,000 plants ha−1 had larger foliage, greater SPAD value, and higher amount of grains cob−1 that contributed to the maximum yield (5.03 t ha−1 and the maximum harvest index (HI compared to the plants in other treatments.

  4. RAPID COMMUNICATION: Nerve growth factor influences cleavage rate and embryo development in sheep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crispo, M; Dos Santos-Neto, P C; Vilariño, M; Mulet, A P; de León, A; Barbeito, L; Menchaca, A

    2016-10-01

    Recent information about Nerve growth factor (NGF), a protein traditionally associated to the nervous system that regulates survival and maturation of developing neurons, suggests that it may exert action also on different levels in the reproductive system. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of NGF added during in vitro oocyte maturation, fertilization or in vitro embryo development in sheep. Nerve growth factor was supplemented to the culture medium at 0, 100, or 1,000 ng/mL, during either in vitro maturation (Exp. 1), in vitro fertilization (Exp. 2), or in vitro culture (Exp. 3). In addition, NGF mRNA expression was determined in cumulus cells and oocytes. Nerve growth factor induced early cleavage when added during oocyte maturation or fertilization, improved embryo development when added during fertilization, and had no significant effect when added during embryo culture. In general, the effect was more evident with 100 rather than 1,000 ng/mL (P growth factor on oocyte maturation and mainly on the fertilization process.

  5. A necessary condition for dispersal driven growth of populations with discrete patch dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guiver, Chris; Packman, David; Townley, Stuart

    2017-07-07

    We revisit the question of when can dispersal-induced coupling between discrete sink populations cause overall population growth? Such a phenomenon is called dispersal driven growth and provides a simple explanation of how dispersal can allow populations to persist across discrete, spatially heterogeneous, environments even when individual patches are adverse or unfavourable. For two classes of mathematical models, one linear and one non-linear, we provide necessary conditions for dispersal driven growth in terms of the non-existence of a common linear Lyapunov function, which we describe. Our approach draws heavily upon the underlying positive dynamical systems structure. Our results apply to both discrete- and continuous-time models. The theory is illustrated with examples and both biological and mathematical conclusions are drawn. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  6. Sustainability of population growth: a case study of urban settlements in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portnov, B A; Pearlmutter, D

    1997-01-01

    "One of the most sensitive criteria for gauging the degree of socio-economic prosperity of an urban settlement is the ability to sustain stable rates of population growth by attracting newcomers and retaining existing population. The present paper argues that after reaching a particular size (on the average, 20-30,000 residents), urban localities in Israel tend to experience substantial changes in components of their annual population growth. Starting with this inflection point, the growth of settlements gradually becomes less dependent on natural causes (birth and death rates) than on the ability to attract newcomers and retain current residents. On the basis of this conclusion, a strategy of ¿redirecting priorities' to developing the peripheral regions of the country is suggested." excerpt

  7. Tissue culture technique for rapid clonal propagation and storage under minimal growth conditions of musa (banana and plantain)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banerjee, N.; De Langhe, E.

    1985-01-01

    A tissue culture technique for rapid clonal propagation and storage under minimal growth conditions is presented in this paper. Shoot-tip cultures of Musa cultivars (both banana and plantain) are induced by culturing small excised shoot apices on modified MS semisolid medium supplemented with various concentrations and combinations of auxins and cytokinins. The effects of cytokinin concentration in the medium as well as the genotypic configuration of the cultivars on the rate of shoot-bud proliferation have been tested. The established shoot-tip cultures grown on modified MS semisolid medium supplemented with IAA (0.18 mg/l) and Ba (2.30 mg/l) have been successfully stored at 15/sup 0/ C with 1000 lux light intensity up to 13-17 months depending on the cultivar. The cultivars tested in the present investigation seem to vary in their ability to withstand minimal growth temperature. 20 references.

  8. PR-Set7 deficiency limits uterine epithelial population growth hampering postnatal gland formation in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Tongtong; He, Bo; Kong, Shuangbo; Zhou, Chan; Zhang, Hangxiao; Ni, Zhangli; Bao, Haili; Qiu, Jingtao; Xin, Qiliang; Reinberg, Danny; Lydon, John P; Lu, Jinhua; Wang, Haibin

    2017-07-21

    Formation of secretary endometrial glands in the uterus known as adenogenesis is a typical process of branching morphogenesis involving dynamic epithelial growth and differentiation. Unsuccessful adenogenesis often leads to female infertility. However, it remains largely unexplored so far regarding the epigenetic machinery governing normal endometrial gland formation. Here, we demonstrated that PR-Set7, an epigenetic regulator for H4K20me1 modification, was extensively expressed in the postnatal uteri, and its conditional deletion resulted in a complete lack of endometrial glands and infertility in mice. Subsequent analysis revealed that uterine PR-Set7 deficiency abolishes the dynamic endometrial epithelial population growth during the short span of gland formation from postnatal days 3 to 9. This markedly reduced epithelial population growth in PR-Set7-null mutant uteri is well associated with DNA damage accumulation and massive apoptotic death in the epithelium, due to blockade of 53BP1 recruitment to DNA damage sites upon reduced levels of H4K20me1/2. Using Pgr(Cre/+)/Rosa26(DTA/+) mouse line and postnatal progesterone injection mouse model, we further confirmed that an impaired epithelial cell population growth either by inducing epithelial death in the diphtheria toxin-A (DTA)-mouse model or attenuating epithelial growth upon postnatal progesterone treatment similarly hampers uterine adenogenesis. Collectively, we establish here a novel 'epithelial population growth threshold' model for successful gland development. Besides further shedding light on the regulatory machinery governing uterine gland formation, our findings raise a safety concern on progesterone supplementation to prevent preterm birth in women bearing a female fetus, as exogenous progesterone may hamper uterine adenogenesis via attenuating epithelial population growth.Cell Death and Differentiation advance online publication, 21 July 2017; doi:10.1038/cdd.2017.120.

  9. Respective impact of climate and fisheries on the growth of an albatross population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolland, V; Nevoux, M; Barbraud, C; Weimerskirch, H

    2009-07-01

    Climate and human activities such as fisheries impact many animal species. However, the demographic processes through which the population vital rates are affected, and the sensitivity of their growth rates, are poorly understood. The Black-browed Albatross, Thalassarche melanophrys, is a long-lived threatened seabird species. Previous studies have shown that the adult survival and breeding success of the population breeding at Kerguelen are affected by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) during both the breeding and the nonbreeding season, and by tuna long-lining in Tasmanian waters through bycatch mortality. Here, using long-term demographic data from a Black-browed Albatross colony monitored for 26 years at Kerguelen, we estimate all demographic parameters from early to adult stages of the life cycle in order to build a fully parameterized population model and predict population growth rates under several scenarios of climate and fishing effort. The observed population growth rate (1.003) indicates that the population was stable or slightly increasing, and our population model gives a close estimate of 1.008. Population growth rate is more sensitive to survival of experienced breeders and accordingly to a change in SSTA during incubation and to tuna long-lining effort (both affecting survival of experienced breeders) than to other demographic parameters/environmental covariates. The population stability results from multiple factors and complex relationships between demographic parameters and environmental conditions, and therefore population equilibrium is precarious. If fishing effort remains stable at its current level and positive SSTA increase, or inversely if fishing effort decreases and SSTA remain similar to present values, then the population would increase. However, if fishing effort increases by 20% (i.e., to 40 million hooks) on the wintering grounds, without any change in SSTA, then the population would decrease at 0.9% per year. If fishing

  10. Population growth and development of Liposcelis pearmani (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae) at constant temperatures and relative humidities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aminatou, B A; Gautam, S G; Opit, G P; Talley, J; Shakya, K

    2011-08-01

    Psocids of genus Liposcelis are now considered serious pests of stored products. We investigated the effects of eight temperatures (22.5, 25.0, 27.5, 30.0, 32.5, 35.0, 37.5, and 40.0°C) and four relative humidities (43, 55, 63, and 75%) on population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis pearmani Lienhard. L. pearmani did not survive at 37.5 and 40.0°C, at all relative humidities tested; at 43% RH, at all temperatures tested; and at 55% RH, at 32.5 and 35°C. The greatest population growth was recorded at 32.5°C and 75% RH (32-fold growth). L. pearmani males have two to four nymphal instars, and the percentages of males with two, three, and four instars were 17, 63, and 20%, respectively. Female L. pearmani have two to five instars, and the percentages of females with two, three, four, and five instars were 5, 39, 55, and 1%, respectively. We developed temperature-dependent development equations for male and female eggs, individual nymphal, combined nymphal, and combined immature stages. Based on 30-d population growth, L. pearmani cannot survive at temperatures >35.0°C; does not thrive at low relative humidities (55%), at temperatures above 25°C; and has a high optimum relative humidity for population growth (75%). Therefore, we expect it to have a more limited distribution compared with other Liposcelis species. These data provide a better understanding of how temperature and RH may influence L. pearmani population dynamics and can be used in population growth models to help develop effective management strategies for this psocid, and to predict its occurrence.

  11. Rapid growth of a Eurasian haplotype of Phragmites australis in a restored brackish marsh in Louisiana, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, R.J.; Travis, S.E.; Sikes, B.A.

    2008-01-01

    While numerous studies have documented patterns of invasion by non-indigenous plant species, few have considered the invasive properties of non-native genotypes of native species. Characteristics associated with specific genotypes, such as tolerance to disturbance, may mistakenly be applied to an entire species in the absence of genetic information, which consequently may affect management decisions. We report here on the incidence and growth of an introduced lineage of Phragmites australis in the Gulf of Mexico coastal zone of Louisiana. P. australis was collected from nine separate locations for inclusion in a series of growth experiments. Chloroplast DNA analysis indicated that specimens collected from four locations in the Mississippi River Delta represented the introduced Eurasian haplotype; the remainder represented the gulf coast haplotype. Three distinct genotypes, or clones, were identified within each haplotype via analysis using amplified fragment length polymorphisms, which also revealed reduced genetic diversity of the gulf coast clones compared to the Eurasian clones. Clones of each haplotype were planted along with three other native macrophytes at similar densities in a restored brackish marsh and monitored for growth. After 14 months, the Eurasian haplotype had spread vegetatively to cover about 82% of the experimental plots, more than four times the coverage (18%) of the gulf coast haplotype. Thus, the use of P. australis plantings for wetland restoration should consider the genetic lineage of plants used since our results indicate the potential of the Eurasian haplotype to grow rapidly at newly restored sites. This rapid growth may limit the establishment of more slowly growing native species. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  12. High false-positive rate of human immunodeficiency virus rapid serum screening in a predominantly hispanic prenatal population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zacharias, Nikolaos M; Athanassaki, Ioanna D; Sangi-Haghpeykar, Haleh; Gardner, Michael O

    2004-12-01

    To identify the characteristics of the gravidas delivering at our birthing center that place them at risk for false-positive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The medical records of all rapid HIV-ELISA-positive gravidas that delivered at our hospital between January 2000 and October 2001 were retrieved, and information was gathered regarding maternal demographics. The results of the Western blot tests were also retrieved and correlated to the ELISA results, across varying maternal characteristics. chi(2), Student's t-test and multivariate analysis were performed, as appropriate, using the SAS software; statistical significance was denoted by ppositive rapid HIV-ELISA out of 9,781 deliveries. Of those, 26 were confirmed as HIV infected by Western blot (overall HIV prevalence: 0.27%, ELISA-positive predictive value: 37.7%). The subgroup prevalence of HIV and positive predictive value of ELISA were 1.53 and 75% among Caucasians; 2.43 and 82.6% among African-Americans; and 0.05 and 9.8% among Hispanics, respectively (p or =5 lifetime) sexual partners was elicited in the majority of HIV-infected patients. The positive predictive value of rapid HIV-ELISA during pregnancy varies widely, depending on maternal race/ethnicity and sexual behavior. The routine disclosure of rapid intrapartum HIV serum screening results prior to Western blot confirmation should be avoided in very low-risk populations.

  13. Rapid and Sustained Nuclear-Cytoplasmic ERK Oscillations Induced by Epidermal Growth Factor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shankaran, Harish; Ippolito, Danielle L.; Chrisler, William B.; Resat, Haluk; Bollinger, Nikki; Opresko, Lee K.; Wiley, H. S.

    2009-12-01

    Mathematical modeling has predicted that ERK activity should oscillate in response to cell stimulation, but this has never been observed. To explore this inconsistency, we expressed an ERK1-GFP fusion protein in mammary epithelial cells. Following EGF stimulation, we observed rapid and continuous ERK oscillations between the nucleus and cytoplasm with a periodicity of approximately 15 minutes. These oscillations were remarkably persistent (>45 cycles), displayed an asymmetric waveform, and were highly dependent on cell density, essentially disappearing at confluency. We conclude that the ERK pathway is an intrinsic oscillator. Although the functional implications of the observed oscillations are uncertain, this property can be used to continuously monitor ERK activity in single cells.

  14. Spontaneous hemorrhage simulating rapid growth of a benign subperiosteal plexiform neurofibroma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blitman, Netta M. [Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Children' s Hospital at Montefiore, Montefiore Medical Center, Bronx, NY (United States); Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Children' s Hospital at Montefiore, Department of Radiology, Bronx, NY (United States); Levsky, Jeffrey M.; Thornhill, Beverly A. [Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Children' s Hospital at Montefiore, Montefiore Medical Center, Bronx, NY (United States); Villanueva-Siles, Esperanza [Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Department of Surgical Pathology, Children' s Hospital at Montefiore, Montefiore Medical Center, Bronx, NY (United States)

    2007-09-15

    Spontaneous subperiosteal hemorrhage is a rare complication of von Recklinghausen's disease. There are few reports describing the MR imaging characteristics of this entity. Our case is unique among these as an underlying plexiform neurofibroma was visualized by MR imaging. We present a 12-year-old child with neurofibromatosis 1 who presented with a rapidly enlarging mass of the fibula. Surgery and pathology revealed subperiosteal hemorrhage into a benign, plexiform neurofibroma. The MR imaging features, pathogenesis and clinical implications of this entity are discussed. Recognition of this disease process and differentiating it from malignant transformation can prevent unnecessary surgery. (orig.)

  15. Does Rapid and Sustained Economic Growth Lead to Convergence in Health Resources: The Case of China From 1980 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Di; Zhang, Donglan; Huang, Jiayan; Schweitzer, Stuart

    2016-01-01

    China's rapid and sustained economic growth offers an opportunity to ask whether the advantages of growth diffuse throughout an economy, or remain localized in areas where the growth has been the greatest. A critical policy area in China has been the health system, and health inequality has become an issue that has led the government to broaden national health insurance programs. This study investigates whether health system resources and performance have converged over the past 30 years across China's 31 provinces. To examine geographic variation of health system resources and performance at the provincial level, we measure the degree of sigma convergence and beta convergence in indicators of health system resources (structure), health services utilization (process), and outcome. All data are from officially published sources: the China Health Statistics Year Book and the China Statistics Year Book. Sigma convergence is found for resource indicators, whereas it is not observed for either process or outcome indicators, indicating that disparities only narrowed in health system resources. Beta convergence is found in most indicators, except for 2 procedure indicators, reflecting that provinces with poorer resources were catching up. Convergence found in this study probably reflects the mixed outcome of government input, and market forces. Thus, left alone, the equitable distribution of health care resources may not occur naturally during a period of economic growth. Governmental and societal efforts are needed to reduce geographic health variation and promote health equity. © The Author(s) 2016.

  16. Evaluation of the use of conductimetry for the rapid and precise measurement of Salmonella spp. growth rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherry, A E; Patterson, M F; Kilpatrick, D; Madden, R H

    2006-10-01

    The growth rates of 14 Salmonella serovars in tryptone soy broth plus yeast extract (TSBYE) were estimated using conventional plating techniques and indirect conductimetry using a Don Whitley RABIT system. Both methods gave identical results for the maximum specific growth rate (mumax) P>0.05. However, using the conductimetric method, mumax for a single serovar was determined in less than 7 h, whereas the conventional method required an additional 24 h. In addition, the conductimetric method was considerably more precise, much less labour-intensive and required the use of considerably less consumables. Using conductimetry, a trained operator could accurately determine mumax for 24 serovars in 3 working days, but only one serovar using the conventional plate counting technique. Hence, the use of conductimetry can markedly increase the precision and accuracy of mumax determinations by allowing a very significant increase in the number of results obtained and in their precision. The data generated will allow the development of better mathematical growth models. The method can also be used to compare growth media and conditions and hence rapidly optimise detection protocols for this pathogen.

  17. Population increase, economic growth, educational inequality, and income distribution: some recent evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ram, R

    1984-04-01

    The relationship between population increase, economic growth, education and income inequality was examined in a cross-section study based on data from 26 developing and 2 developed countries. As other studies have noted, high population growth is associated with a less equal income distribution. A 1 percentage point reduction in the rate of population growth tends to raise the income share of the poorest 80% in the less developed world by almost 5 percentage points and is associated with a 1.7 percentage point increase in the income share of the poorest 40%. The relationship between short-run income growth and equality, on the other hand, is strong and positive. Estimates suggest that a 1 percentage point increase in the short-run rate of growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) increases the income share of the bottom 80% by about 2 percentage points and that of the poorest 40% by almost 1 percentage point. Although higher mean schooling appears to be a mild equalizer, educational inequality does not appear to have an adverse effect on income distribution. Overall, these results challenge the widely held belief that there must be a growth-equity trade-off. Moreover, they suggest that the impact of educational inequality on income distribution may be different from that observed in earlier studies, implying a need for caution in using these earlier results as a basis for educational policy development.

  18. Changing pattern of premature mortality burden over 6 years of rapid growth of the economy in suburban south-west China: 1998-2003.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Le; Chongsuvivatwong, Virasakdi; Geater, Alan

    2008-05-01

    This study was conducted in Kunming, the capital of Yunnan, a poor province in south-west China experiencing rapid economic growth. The study examined the short-term trend in premature mortality burden from common causes of death in a suburban region between 1998 and 2003. Years of life lost (YLL) per 1000 population and mortality rate per 100,000 population were calculated from medical death certificates, and broken down by cause of death, sex and year without age weighting but with a discounting rate of 3%. Non-communicable diseases contributed over 80% of all causes of YLL, with a slightly increasing trend. The combined rate for communicable, maternal, prenatal and nutritional deficiencies declined from 4.7 to 2.4 per 1000 population. Remarkably, declining trends in YLL were also seen for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, drug use and road traffic accidents, whereas increasing trends were seen for ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and liver cancer (males). The YLL rate for stroke, self-inflicted injuries, lung cancer and stomach cancer fluctuated over time. The region should focus on further control of IHD and liver cancer.

  19. Rapid growth of seed black holes in the early universe by supra-exponential accretion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Tal; Natarajan, Priyamvada

    2014-09-12

    Mass accretion by black holes (BHs) is typically capped at the Eddington rate, when radiation's push balances gravity's pull. However, even exponential growth at the Eddington-limited e-folding time t(E) ~ few × 0.01 billion years is too slow to grow stellar-mass BH seeds into the supermassive luminous quasars that are observed when the universe is 1 billion years old. We propose a dynamical mechanism that can trigger supra-exponential accretion in the early universe, when a BH seed is bound in a star cluster fed by the ubiquitous dense cold gas flows. The high gas opacity traps the accretion radiation, while the low-mass BH's random motions suppress the formation of a slowly draining accretion disk. Supra-exponential growth can thus explain the puzzling emergence of supermassive BHs that power luminous quasars so soon after the Big Bang. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  20. Rapid and highly efficient growth of graphene on copper by chemical vapor deposition of ethanol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lisi, Nicola, E-mail: nicola.lisi@enea.it [ENEA, Materials Technology Unit, Surface Technology Laboratory, Casaccia Research Centre, Via Anguillarese 301, 00123 Rome (Italy); Buonocore, Francesco; Dikonimos, Theodoros; Leoni, Enrico [ENEA, Materials Technology Unit, Surface Technology Laboratory, Casaccia Research Centre, Via Anguillarese 301, 00123 Rome (Italy); Faggio, Giuliana; Messina, Giacomo [Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell' Informazione, delle Infrastrutture e dell' Energia Sostenibile (DIIES), Università “Mediterranea” di Reggio Calabria, 89122 Reggio Calabria (Italy); Morandi, Vittorio; Ortolani, Luca [CNR-IMM Bologna, Via Gobetti 101, 40129 Bologna (Italy); Capasso, Andrea [ENEA, Materials Technology Unit, Surface Technology Laboratory, Casaccia Research Centre, Via Anguillarese 301, 00123 Rome (Italy)

    2014-11-28

    The growth of graphene by chemical vapor deposition on metal foils is a promising technique to deliver large-area films with high electron mobility. Nowadays, the chemical vapor deposition of hydrocarbons on copper is the most investigated synthesis method, although many other carbon precursors and metal substrates are used too. Among these, ethanol is a safe and inexpensive precursor that seems to offer favorable synthesis kinetics. We explored the growth of graphene on copper from ethanol, focusing on processes of short duration (up to one min). We investigated the produced films by electron microscopy, Raman and X-ray photoemission spectroscopy. A graphene film with high crystalline quality was found to cover the entire copper catalyst substrate in just 20 s, making ethanol appear as a more efficient carbon feedstock than methane and other commonly used precursors. - Highlights: • Graphene films were grown by fast chemical vapor deposition of ethanol on copper. • High-temperature/short-time growth produced highly crystalline graphene. • The copper substrate was entirely covered by a graphene film in just 20 s. • Addition of H{sub 2} had a negligible effect on the crystalline quality.

  1. Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

    2003-01-01

    Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

  2. Selection for life-history traits to maximize population growth in an invasive marine species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaspers, Cornelia; Marty, Lise; Kiørboe, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    Species establishing outside their natural range, negatively impacting local ecosystems, are of increasing global concern. They often display life-history features characteristic for r-selected populations with fast growth and high reproduction rates to achieve positive population growth rates (r......) in invaded habitats. Here, we demonstrate substantially earlier maturation at a 2 orders of magnitude lower body mass at first reproduction in invasive compared to native populations of the comb jelly Mnemiopsis leidyi. Empirical results are corroborated by a theoretical model for competing life......-history traits that predicts maturation at the smallest possible size to optimize r, while individual lifetime reproductive success (R0 ), optimized in native populations, is near constant over a large range of intermediate maturation sizes. We suggest that high variability in reproductive tactics in native...

  3. Genetic variation facilitates seedling establishment but not population growth rate of a perennial invader.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shou-Li; Vasemägi, Anti; Ramula, Satu

    2016-01-01

    Assessing the demographic consequences of genetic variation is fundamental to invasion biology. However, genetic and demographic approaches are rarely combined to explore the effects of genetic variation on invasive populations in natural environments. This study combined population genetics, demographic data and a greenhouse experiment to investigate the consequences of genetic variation for the population fitness of the perennial, invasive herb Lupinus polyphyllus. Genetic and demographic data were collected from 37 L. polyphyllus populations representing different latitudes in Finland, and genetic variation was characterized based on 13 microsatellite loci. Associations between genetic variation and population size, population density, latitude and habitat were investigated. Genetic variation was then explored in relation to four fitness components (establishment, survival, growth, fecundity) measured at the population level, and the long-term population growth rate (λ). For a subset of populations genetic variation was also examined in relation to the temporal variability of λ. A further assessment was made of the role of natural selection in the observed variation of certain fitness components among populations under greenhouse conditions. It was found that genetic variation correlated positively with population size, particularly at higher latitudes, and differed among habitat types. Average seedling establishment per population increased with genetic variation in the field, but not under greenhouse conditions. Quantitative genetic divergence (Q(ST)) based on seedling establishment in the greenhouse was smaller than allelic genetic divergence (F'(ST)), indicating that unifying selection has a prominent role in this fitness component. Genetic variation was not associated with average survival, growth or fecundity measured at the population level, λ or its variability. The study suggests that although genetic variation may facilitate plant invasions by

  4. Population genomics reveal recent speciation and rapid evolutionary adaptation in polar bears

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Shiping; Lorenzen, Eline D.; Fumagalli, Matteo

    2014-01-01

    Polar bears are uniquely adapted to life in the High Arctic and have undergone drastic physiological changes in response to Arctic climates and a hyperlipid diet of primarily marine mammal prey. We analyzed 89 complete genomes of polar bear and brown bear using population genomic modeling and show...

  5. Tissue-resident adult stem cell populations of rapidly self-renewing organs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barker, N.; Bartfeld, S.; Clevers, H.

    2010-01-01

    The epithelial lining of the intestine, stomach, and skin is continuously exposed to environmental assault, imposing a requirement for regular self-renewal. Resident adult stem cell populations drive this renewal, and much effort has been invested in revealing their identity. Reliable adult stem

  6. Rapid quantitative and qualitative analysis of biofilm production by Staphylococcus epidermidis under static growth conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waters, Elaine M; McCarthy, Hannah; Hogan, Siobhan; Zapotoczna, Marta; O'Neill, Eoghan; O'Gara, James P

    2014-01-01

    Rapid screening of biofilm forming capacity by Staphylococcus epidermidis is possible using in vitro assays with 96-well plates. This method first developed by Christensen et al. in 1985 is fast and does not require specialized instruments. Thus, laboratories with standard microbiology infrastructure and a 96-well plate reader can easily use this technique to generate data on the biofilm phenotypes of multiple S. epidermidis strains and clinical isolates. Furthermore, this method can be adapted to gain insights into biofilm regulation and the characteristics of biofilms produced by different S. epidermidis isolates. Although this assay is extremely useful for showing whether individual strains are biofilm-positive or biofilm-negative and distinguishing between form weak, moderate or strong biofilm, it is important to acknowledge that the absolute levels of biofilm produced by an individual strain can vary significantly between experiments meaning that strict adherence to the protocol used is of paramount importance. Furthermore, measuring biofilm under static conditions does not generally reflect in vivo conditions in which bacteria are often subjected to shear stresses under flow conditions. Hence, the biofilm characteristics of some strains are dramatically different under flow and static conditions. Nevertheless, rapid measurement of biofilm production under static conditions is a useful tool in the analysis of the S. epidermidis biofilm phenotype.

  7. Rapid Growth of Lung Nodules due to Combined Pulmonary Vasculitis, Silicoanthracosis, and Chondrocalcinosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolfgang Jungraithmayr

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Silicoanthracosis is a pneumoconiosis due to occupational inhalation of silica and carbon dusts. Clinically, it can be associated with vasculitis or rheumatoid arthritis. In association with these diseases, silicoanthracosis can present within the lung with multiple pulmonary nodules which, as a differential diagnosis, can mimic metastatic disease or multiple abscesses. Case Presentation. We present the case of a 62-year old former pit worker with pulmonary nodules, chondrocalcinosis due to calcium pyrophosphate deposition (CPPD, and a history of renal cancer. Within a short period of time, pulmonary nodules grew rapidly. Thoracoscopically, the resected lung specimen revealed silicoanthracosis associated with small-to-medium-size vasculitis in the presence of antineutrophil cytoplasmatic autoantibodies (c-ANCA. Conclusion. Pulmonary silicoanthracotic lesions on the base of ANCA-associated vasculitis and CPPD arthritis can rapidly grow. A mutual correlation between silicoanthracosis, ANCA-associated vasculitis, and CPPD seems possible. Apart from this, consideration of metastatic disease should be obligatory in patients with a history of cancer at the same time being immunosuppressed.

  8. Optical Coherence Tomography in the UK Biobank Study - Rapid Automated Analysis of Retinal Thickness for Large Population-Based Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pearse A Keane

    Full Text Available To describe an approach to the use of optical coherence tomography (OCT imaging in large, population-based studies, including methods for OCT image acquisition, storage, and the remote, rapid, automated analysis of retinal thickness.In UK Biobank, OCT images were acquired between 2009 and 2010 using a commercially available "spectral domain" OCT device (3D OCT-1000, Topcon. Images were obtained using a raster scan protocol, 6 mm x 6 mm in area, and consisting of 128 B-scans. OCT image sets were stored on UK Biobank servers in a central repository, adjacent to high performance computers. Rapid, automated analysis of retinal thickness was performed using custom image segmentation software developed by the Topcon Advanced Biomedical Imaging Laboratory (TABIL. This software employs dual-scale gradient information to allow for automated segmentation of nine intraretinal boundaries in a rapid fashion.67,321 participants (134,642 eyes in UK Biobank underwent OCT imaging of both eyes as part of the ocular module. 134,611 images were successfully processed with 31 images failing segmentation analysis due to corrupted OCT files or withdrawal of subject consent for UKBB study participation. Average time taken to call up an image from the database and complete segmentation analysis was approximately 120 seconds per data set per login, and analysis of the entire dataset was completed in approximately 28 days.We report an approach to the rapid, automated measurement of retinal thickness from nearly 140,000 OCT image sets from the UK Biobank. In the near future, these measurements will be publically available for utilization by researchers around the world, and thus for correlation with the wealth of other data collected in UK Biobank. The automated analysis approaches we describe may be of utility for future large population-based epidemiological studies, clinical trials, and screening programs that employ OCT imaging.

  9. Nonylphenol stimulates fecundity but not population growth rate (λ) of Folsomia candida

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Widarto, T.H.; Krogh, P. H.; Forbes, Valery E.

    2007-01-01

    of NP on these traits did not result in a statistically significant increase in population growth rate (λ). Decomposition analysis indicated that fecundity was the main contributor to the (non-significant) changes observed in λ However, since the elasticity of fecundity was very low, large changes...... at the population level and that λ is an appropriate endpoint for ecotoxicological studies. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved...

  10. Population Growth and Land Use Dynamics along Urban–Rural Gradient

    OpenAIRE

    Polyakov, Maksym; Zhang, Daowei

    2008-01-01

    In this study we apply a spatial conditional logit model to determine factors influencing land cover change in three contiguous counties in West Georgia between 1992 and 2001 using point (pixel) based observations of land characteristics. We found that accessibility to population and population growth affect not only development of rural lands and transition between agricultural and forestry uses, but also influence changes between forest types. The model could be used to project land use–l...

  11. Growth, Development and Land-Use in a Simple Agrarian Economy with Endogeneous Population

    OpenAIRE

    Skonhoft, Anders; Solstad, Jan Tore

    2003-01-01

    The paper analyses the relation between demographic transformation, agricultural transformation and land-use pressure within a simple agrarian economy where population is treated both as a cause and consequence of economic changes. In this Malthusian-type of economy, population growth and food production are interrelated through two production activities. First, agricultural land and labour are tied up in production of agricultural products determining the current flow of consumption. Secondl...

  12. [The volume, age structure, and rate of growth of the population of Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partida Bush, V

    1990-01-01

    The author analyzes the effects of levels and trends in fertility, mortality, and migration in Mexico during the period 1950-1985 on the volume, growth rate, and age structure of the population. In addition, the future consequences of recent demographic trends are considered, with a focus on the demand for primary education, the size of the economically active population, household size and structure, and the need for medical services.

  13. Economic Transformation, Population Growth and the Long-Run World Income Distribution

    OpenAIRE

    Marcos d Chamon; Michael R. Kremer

    2006-01-01

    We construct and calibrate a model of the world economy in which countries' opportunities to develop depend on their trade with advanced economies. Trade opportunities in turn depend on the relative population of the advanced and developing world. As developing countries become advanced, they further improve the trade prospects for the remaining developing countries. As long as the population growth differential between developing and advanced countries is not too large, the rate at which cou...

  14. Using a population growth model to simulate response of Plodia interpunctella Hübner to temperature and diet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Response to temperature and diet are major factors in the potential population growth of Plodia interpunctella Hübner, a damaging pest of many stored products. A population growth model was used to simulate population development on an optimal wheat-based diet and a sub-optimal diet of raisins at 20...

  15. India in the Twenty-first Century: The Challenge of Population Growth. Fulbright-Hays Summer Seminars Abroad, 1997 (India).

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Fleur, Mary Ann

    This paper contains a course outline for a five-hour graduate class focusing on the issue of population in India. Students examine contributing factors to population growth, along with studying characteristics of, and efforts to, control population growth. The significance of ethnic diversity in India also is addressed. Group discussion and group…

  16. Effects of temperature and population density on von Bertalanffy growth parameters in Atlantic herring: a macro-ecological analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunel, T.P.A.; Dickey-Collas, M.

    2010-01-01

    The effect of temperature and population density on the growth of Atlantic herring Clupea harengus was studied using a comparative approach applied to 15 North Atlantic populations. The von Bertalanffy (VB) equation was applied to describe mean growth of individuals in each population, both averaged

  17. Height-growth response to climatic changes differs among populations of Douglas-fir: a novel analysis of historic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leites, Laura P; Robinson, Andrew P; Rehfeldt, Gerald E; Marshall, John D; Crookston, Nicholas L

    2012-01-01

    Projected climate change will affect existing forests, as substantial changes are predicted to occur during their life spans. Species that have ample intraspecific genetic differentiation, such as Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), are expected to display population-specific growth responses to climate change. Using a mixed-effects modeling approach, we describe three-year height (HT) growth response to changes in climate of interior Douglas-fir populations. We incorporate climate information at the population level, yielding a model that is specific to both species and population. We use data from provenance tests from previous studies that comprised 236 populations from Idaho, Montana, and eastern Washington, USA. The most sensitive indicator of climate was the mean temperature of the coldest month. Population maximum HT and HT growth response to changes in climate were dependent on seed source climate. All populations had optimum HT growth when transferred to climates with warmer winters; those originating in sites with the warmest winters were taller across sites and had highest HT growth at transfer distances closest to zero; those from colder climates were shortest and had optimum HT growth when transferred the farthest. Although this differential response damped the height growth differences among populations, cold-climate populations still achieved their maximum growth at lower temperatures than warm-climate populations. The results highlight the relevance of understanding climate change impacts at the population level, particularly in a species with ample genetic variation among populations.

  18. Analysis of single hyphal growth and fragmentation in submerged cultures using a population model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krabben, Preben; Nielsen, Søren; Michelsen, Michael Locht

    1997-01-01

    Descriptions of population dynamics in submerged cultures are important when studying the mechanisms of growth and fragmentation of filamentous microorganisms. Population models are traditionally formulated as population balance equations. Population models of filamentous morphology are difficult...... to solve because of random fragmentation, which introduces an integral term into the population balance equations. Balances for the systemic properties, e.g. concentration of hyphal elements, substrate concentration, average total hyphal length, and average number of growing tips, are set up. Based...... on these balances one can solve the inverse problem, i.e. determination of kinetic parameters directly from measurements of the hyphal morphology. Both a Monte Carlo method and a discretization method have been used to calculate the steady-state population distribution. The two methods are compared and the Monte...

  19. The presence of Bt-transgenic oilseed rape in wild mustard populations affects plant growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yongbo; Stewart, C Neal; Li, Junsheng; Huang, Hai; Zhang, Xitao

    2015-12-01

    The adventitious presence of transgenic plants in wild plant populations is of ecological and regulatory concern, but the consequences of adventitious presence are not well understood. Here, we introduced Bacillus thuringiensis Cry1Ac (Bt)-transgenic oilseed rape (Bt OSR, Brassica napus) with various frequencies into wild mustard (Brassica juncea) populations. We sought to better understand the adventitious presence of this transgenic insecticidal crop in a wild-relative plant population. We assessed the factors of competition, resource availability and diamondback moth (Plutella xylostella) infestation on plant population dynamics. As expected, Bt OSR performed better than wild mustard in mixed populations under herbivore attack in habitats with enough resources, whereas wild mustard had higher fitness when Bt OSR was rarer in habitats with limited resources. Results suggest that the presence of insect-resistant transgenic plants could decrease the growth of wild mustard and Bt OSR plants and their populations, especially under high herbivore pressure.

  20. Controlling Growth High Uniformity Indium Selenide (In2Se3) Nanowires via the Rapid Thermal Annealing Process at Low Temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Ya-Chu; Hung, Yu-Chen; Wang, Chiu-Yen

    2017-09-15

    High uniformity Au-catalyzed indium selenide (In2Se3) nanowires are grown with the rapid thermal annealing (RTA) treatment via the vapor-liquid-solid (VLS) mechanism. The diameters of Au-catalyzed In2Se3 nanowires could be controlled with varied thicknesses of Au films, and the uniformity of nanowires is improved via a fast pre-annealing rate, 100 °C/s. Comparing with the slower heating rate, 0.1 °C/s, the average diameters and distributions (standard deviation, SD) of In2Se3 nanowires with and without the RTA process are 97.14 ± 22.95 nm (23.63%) and 119.06 ± 48.75 nm (40.95%), respectively. The in situ annealing TEM is used to study the effect of heating rate on the formation of Au nanoparticles from the as-deposited Au film. The results demonstrate that the average diameters and distributions of Au nanoparticles with and without the RTA process are 19.84 ± 5.96 nm (30.00%) and about 22.06 ± 9.00 nm (40.80%), respectively. It proves that the diameter size, distribution, and uniformity of Au-catalyzed In2Se3 nanowires are reduced and improved via the RTA pre-treated. The systemic study could help to control the size distribution of other nanomaterials through tuning the annealing rate, temperatures of precursor, and growth substrate to control the size distribution of other nanomaterials. Graphical Abstract Rapid thermal annealing (RTA) process proved that it can uniform the size distribution of Au nanoparticles, and then it can be used to grow the high uniformity Au-catalyzed In2Se3 nanowires via the vapor-liquid-solid (VLS) mechanism. Comparing with the general growth condition, the heating rate is slow, 0.1 °C/s, and the growth temperature is a relatively high growth temperature, > 650 °C. RTA pre-treated growth substrate can form smaller and uniform Au nanoparticles to react with the In2Se3 vapor and produce the high uniformity In2Se3 nanowires. The in situ annealing TEM is used to realize the effect of heating rate on Au nanoparticle

  1. Rapid growth of zinc oxide nanobars in presence of electric field by physical vapor deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jouya, Mehraban; Taromian, Fahime; Siami, Simin

    2018-01-01

    In this contribution, electric field has some effects to increase growth for specific time duration on zinc oxide (ZnO) nanobars. First, the zinc (Zn) thin film has been prepared by 235,000 V/m electric field assisted physical vapor deposition (PVD) at vacuum of 1.33 × 10-5 mbar. Second, strong electric field of 134,000 V/m has been used in ambient for growing ZnO nanobars in term of the time include 2.5 and 10 h. The performances of the ZnO nanostructure in absence and presence of electric field have been determined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD). The results of XRD analysis showed that ZnO has a hexagonal bars structure and a strongly preferred (101) orientation which is strongest than without applying electric field. SEM analysis revealed that physical vapored ZnO thin film in presence of electric field are densely packed with uniform morphological, thinner and denser in distribution. Electric field effect for ZnO growth in 2.5 h is better than it in the 2.5 h without electric field but by passing the time the media influence has good power almost as same as electric field. Through this electric field in PVD, the compact and uniform Zn film has been achieved which is less diameter than ordinary PVD method. Finally, we carry out a series of experiments to grow different-orientation ZnO nanobars with less than 100 nm in diameter, which are the time saving process in base of PVD ever reported. Therefore, the significant conclusion in usage electric field is reducing time of growth.

  2. Climate change and population growth impacts on surface water supply and demand of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bisrat Kifle Arsiso

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Addis Ababa is expected to experience water supply stress as a result of complex interaction of urbanization and climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate water demand and supply prospects for the City of Addis Ababa by applying the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP hydrological model and using scenarios of population growth trends and climate change. The study includes analysis of water consumption, hydrological information and climate data which is statistically downscaled using approach used to generate climate data available at the Worldclim data center. Bias corrected climate model data of NIMR-HadGEM2-AO under a midrange RCP 4.5 scenario and RCP8.5, high emissions scenario was used for the study. The result shows that the projected population of Addis Ababa city using high population growth rate (3.3% will be about 7 million by the year 2039. The climate change projections result under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios on surface water supply shows that the level of reservoirs volume both at Legedadi/Dire and Gefersa reservoirs will be reduced in the projected years between the years 2023 and 2039. The result of the RCP 8.5 scenario with low population growth shows that the unmet water demand will be 257.28 million m3 in 2037. The result of the RCP 4.5 scenario with low population growth shows that the unmet water demand will be 314.91 million m3 in 2037. This indicates that the unmet water demand with the dry climate of RCP 4.5 climate change scenario is higher than RCP 8.5 scenario. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario with high population growth (3.3% the unmet water demand is 87.42 million m3 in 2030, 158.38 million m3 in 2035 and 380.72 million m3 in 2037. This indicates that the unmet water demand in both high population growth and the dry climate of RCP 4.5 climate change scenario will lead to severe shortage of water in the city. The most effective management options are water tariff increasing, domestic water use

  3. Monitoring the welfare of polar bear populations in a rapidly changing Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwood, Todd C.; Duncan, Colleen G.; Patyk, Kelly A.; Sonsthagen, Sarah A.

    2017-01-01

    Most programs for monitoring the welfare of wildlife populations support efforts aimed at reaching discrete management objectives, like mitigating conflict with humans. While such programs can be effective, their limited scope may preclude systemic evaluations needed for large-scale conservation initiatives, like the recovery of at-risk species. We discuss select categories of metrics that can be used to monitor how polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are responding to the primary threat to their long-term persistence—loss of sea ice habitat due to the unabated rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG; e.g., CO2) concentrations—that can also provide information on ecosystem function and health. Monitoring key aspects of polar bear population dynamics, spatial behavior, health and resiliency can provide valuable insight into ecosystem state and function, and could be a powerful tool for achieving Arctic conservation objectives, particularly those that have transnational policy implications.

  4. An exponential growth model with decreasing r captures bottom-up effects on the population growth of Aphis glycines Matsumura (Hemiptera: Aphididae)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costamagna, A.C.; Werf, van der W.; Bianchi, F.J.J.A.; Landis, D.A.

    2007-01-01

    1 There is ample evidence that the life history and population dynamics of aphids are closely linked to plant phenology. Based on life table studies, it has been proposed that the growth of aphid populations could be modeled with an exponential growth model, with r decreasing linearly with time.

  5. Integrated care for older populations and its implementation facilitators and barriers: A rapid scoping review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Threapleton, Diane E; Chung, Roger Y; Wong, Samuel Y S; Wong, Eliza; Chau, Patsy; Woo, Jean; Chung, Vincent C H; Yeoh, Eng-Kiong

    2017-06-01

    Inform health system improvements by summarizing components of integrated care in older populations. Identify key implementation barriers and facilitators. A scoping review was undertaken for evidence from MEDLINE, the Cochrane Library, organizational websites and internet searches. Eligible publications included reviews, reports, individual studies and policy documents published from 2005 to February 2017. Initial eligible documents were reviews or reports concerning integrated care approaches in older/frail populations. Other documents were later sourced to identify and contextualize implementation issues. Study findings and implementation barriers and facilitators were charted and thematically synthesized. Thematic synthesis using 30 publications identified 8 important components for integrated care in elderly and frail populations: (i) care continuity/transitions; (ii) enabling policies/governance; (iii) shared values/goals; (iv) person-centred care; (v) multi-/inter-disciplinary services; (vi) effective communication; (vii) case management; (viii) needs assessments for care and discharge planning. Intervention outcomes and implementation issues (barriers or facilitators) tend to depend heavily on the context and programme objectives. Implementation issues in four main areas were observed: (i) Macro-level contextual factors; (ii) Miso-level system organization (funding, leadership, service structure and culture); (iii) Miso-level intervention organization (characteristics, resources and credibility) and (iv) Micro-level factors (shared values, engagement and communication). Improving integration in care requires many components. However, local barriers and facilitators need to be considered. Changes are expected to occur slowly and are more likely to be successful where elements of integrated care are well incorporated into local settings.

  6. Fertility in Alberta in a Context of Rapid Economic Growth, 1997-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Trovato

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Historically, birth rates in Alberta have followed closely the trajectory of change experienced by the other Canadian provinces. Its total fertility rate fell during the low point of the 1930s; it increased during the post-War baby boom in the 1950s and sixties, and thereafter fell to subreplacement levels beginning in the mid 1970s. In recent years, especially since the early 2000s, the birth rate in Alberta has unexpectedly increased, such that by 2007, it had reached 1.90 children per woman - not far from the 2.1 level needed for generational replacement in the long term. During this same period both national and provincial fertility rates fluctuated at levels below those of Alberta (except Saskatchewan and Manitoba, whose rates have been higher. In this study, I examine the historical pattern of fertility change in Alberta, noting similarities and differences with the other provinces. I then look at the association of selected macro level factors (marriage, unemployment, wages, female labour force participation with change in total and parity-specific birth rates between 1997 and 2007, a period of unprecedented economic growth in Alberta. The statistical results show that although marriage is not significantly correlated with change in fertility rates, male and female wages and female labour force participation all show associations consistent with a procyclical interpretation of fertility change - that is, periods of economic growth are conducive to fertility increase whereas bad economic times are associated with reduced fertility.

  7. Monitoring of Water Spectral Pattern Reveals Differences in Probiotics Growth When Used for Rapid Bacteria Selection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandar Slavchev

    Full Text Available Development of efficient screening method coupled with cell functionality evaluation is highly needed in contemporary microbiology. The presented novel concept and fast non-destructive method brings in to play the water spectral pattern of the solution as a molecular fingerprint of the cell culture system. To elucidate the concept, NIR spectroscopy with Aquaphotomics were applied to monitor the growth of sixteen Lactobacillus bulgaricus one Lactobacillus pentosus and one Lactobacillus gasseri bacteria strains. Their growth rate, maximal optical density, low pH and bile tolerances were measured and further used as a reference data for analysis of the simultaneously acquired spectral data. The acquired spectral data in the region of 1100-1850nm was subjected to various multivariate data analyses - PCA, OPLS-DA, PLSR. The results showed high accuracy of bacteria strains classification according to their probiotic strength. Most informative spectral fingerprints covered the first overtone of water, emphasizing the relation of water molecular system to cell functionality.

  8. Fertility in Alberta in a Context of Rapid Economic Growth, 1997-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Trovato

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Historically, birth rates in Alberta have followed closely the trajectory of change experienced by the other Canadian provinces. Its total fertility rate fell during the low point of the 1930s; it increased during the post-War baby boom in the 1950s and sixties, and thereafter fell to sub-replacement levels beginning in the mid 1970s. In recent years, especially since the early 2000s, the birth rate in Alberta has unexpectedly increased, such that by 2007, it had reached 1.90 children per woman---not far from the 2.1 level needed for generational replacement in the long term. During this same period both national and provincial fertility rates fluctuated at levels below those of Alberta (except Saskatchewan and Manitoba, whose rates have been higher. In this study, I examine the historical pattern of fertility change in Alberta, noting similarities and differences with the other provinces. I then look at the association of selected macro level factors (marriage, unemployment, wages, female labour force participation with change in total and parity-specific birth rates between 1997 and 2007, a period of unprecedented economic growth in Alberta. The statistical results show that although marriage is not significantly correlated with change in fertility rates, male and female wages and female labour force participation all show associations consistent with a procyclical interpretation of fertility change --- that is, periods of economic growth are conducive to fertility increase whereas bad economic times lead to reduced fertility.

  9. World Population Crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehrlich, Paul R.; Ehrlich, Anne H.

    1986-01-01

    Rapid population growth, rising competition for resources, and increasing environmental deterioration are intertwined factors in the human predicament that feed political tensions and conflicts of the late twentieth century. Outlines dimensions of this predicament (including data on population, growth, military spending, quality of life, and…

  10. Malawi's population dynamics

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    rapid population growth on natural and non-renewable re- sources, energy and the environment. A second strand of concern has been related to an assess- ment of population's ... education at the expense of more productive, economic growth-oriented investments. . The 1980s marked a period of less pessimism since a ...

  11. Rapidly induced chemical defenses in maize stems and their effects on short-term growth of Ostrinia nubilalis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dafoe, Nicole J; Huffaker, Alisa; Vaughan, Martha M; Duehl, Adrian J; Teal, Peter E; Schmelz, Eric A

    2011-09-01

    Plants damaged by insect herbivory often respond by inducing a suite of defenses that can negatively affect an insect's growth and fecundity. Ostrinia nubilalis (European corn borer, ECB) is one of the most devastating insect pests of maize, and in the current study, we examined the early biochemical changes that occur in maize stems in response to ECB herbivory and how these rapidly induced defenses influence the growth of ECB. We measured the quantities of known maize defense compounds, benzoxazinoids and the kauralexin class of diterpenoid phytoalexins. ECB herbivory resulted in decreased levels of the benzoxazinoid, 2,4-dihydroxy-7-methoxy-1,4-benzoxazin-3-one)-β-D-glucopyranose (DIMBOA-Glc), and a corresponding increase in 2-(2-hydroxy-4,7-dimethoxy-1,4-benzoxazin-3-one)-β-D-glucopyranose (HDMBOA-Glc). Total quantities of benzoxazinoids and kauralexins were increased as early as 24 h after the initiation of ECB feeding. The plant hormones, jasmonic acid (JA) and ethylene (ET), and the transcripts encoding their key biosynthetic enzymes also accumulated in response to ECB herbivory, consistent with a role in defense regulation. The combined pharmacological application of JA and the ET precursor, 1-aminocyclopropane-1-carboxylic acid to stem internode tissue likewise resulted in changes in benzoxazinoids similar to that observed with ECB damage. Despite the fact that maize actively mounts a defense response to ECB stem feeding, no differences in percent weight gain were observed between ECB larvae that fed upon non-wounded control tissues compared to tissues obtained from plants previously subjected to 24 h ECB stem herbivory. These rapid defense responses in maize stems do not appear to negatively impact ECB growth, thus suggesting that ECB have adapted to these induced biochemical changes.

  12. Population Growth of Small Harmful Rats in Grassland Subjected to Noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xue-Mei; Li, Zhi-Bing; Xie, Hui-Zhang; Ai, Bao-Quan; Cheng, Xiao-Bo; Liu, Liang-Gang

    2007-07-01

    The population growth of small harmful rats in grassland subjected to environment fluctuation has been modelled in a logistic equation. Two correlated random variables responsible to the fluctuation of the genetic factor and the suppression factor are used. A two-peak structure of the steady probability distribution of rate population is observed in the large fluctuation regime of the genetic factor. With the increase of correlation constant λ, the steady probability distribution can change from two peaks to a single peak. The suppression factor μ and its fluctuation also affect the steady probability distribution and can push it toward a small population.

  13. Growth rates and variances of unexploited wolf populations in dynamic equilibria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mech, L. David; Fieberg, John

    2015-01-01

    Several states have begun harvesting gray wolves (Canis lupus), and these states and various European countries are closely monitoring their wolf populations. To provide appropriate perspective for determining unusual or extreme fluctuations in their managed wolf populations, we analyzed natural, long-term, wolf-population-density trajectories totaling 130 years of data from 3 areas: Isle Royale National Park in Lake Superior, Michigan, USA; the east-central Superior National Forest in northeastern Minnesota, USA; and Denali National Park, Alaska, USA. Ratios between minimum and maximum annual sizes for 2 mainland populations (n = 28 and 46 yr) varied from 2.5–2.8, whereas for Isle Royale (n = 56 yr), the ratio was 6.3. The interquartile range (25th percentile, 75th percentile) for annual growth rates, Nt+1/Nt, was (0.88, 1.14), (0.92, 1.11), and (0.86, 1.12) for Denali, Superior National Forest, and Isle Royale respectively. We fit a density-independent model and a Ricker model to each time series, and in both cases we considered the potential for observation error. Mean growth rates from the density-independent model were close to 0 for all 3 populations, with 95% credible intervals including 0. We view the estimated model parameters, including those describing annual variability or process variance, as providing useful summaries of the trajectories of these populations. The estimates of these natural wolf population parameters can serve as benchmarks for comparison with those of recovering wolf populations. Because our study populations were all from circumscribed areas, fluctuations in them represent fluctuations in densities (i.e., changes in numbers are not confounded by changes in occupied area as would be the case with populations expanding their range, as are wolf populations in many states).

  14. Demographic Stress and Governance: The Influence of Nigerian Population Growth on the Risk of Civil Conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    recruitment of this overpopulated segment by insurgent or terrorist groups. Also examined are the demographic factors of unemployment, urbanization, and...Population Growth, Demographics, and Conflict Overpopulation in various countries has become a serious threat to the health of people and a grave

  15. Growth of the human lens in the Indian adult population: Preliminary observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashik Mohamed

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: The eye lens grows throughout life by the addition of new cells inside the surrounding capsule. How this growth affects the properties of the lens is essential for understanding disorders such as cataract and presbyopia. Aims: To examine growth of the human lens in the Indian population and compare this with the growth in Western populations by measuring in vitro dimensions together with wet and dry weights. Settings and Design: The study was conducted at the research wing of a tertiary eye care center in South India and the study design was prospective. Materials and Methods: Lenses were removed from eye bank eyes and their dimensions measured with a digital caliper. They were then carefully blotted dry and weighed before being placed in 5% buffered formalin. After 1 week fixation, the lenses were dried at 80 °C until constant weight was achieved. The constant weight was noted as the dry weight of the lens. Statistical Analysis Used: Lens parameters were analyzed as a function of age using linear and logarithmic regression methods. Results: Data were obtained for 251 lenses, aged 16-93 years, within a median postmortem time of 22 h. Both wet and dry weights increased linearly at 1.24 and 0.44 mg/year, respectively, throughout adult life. The dimensions also increased continuously throughout this time. Conclusions: Over the age range examined, lens growth in the Indian population is very similar to that in Western populations.

  16. Population Growth Rates: Connecting Mathematics to Studies of Society and the Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ninbet, Steven; Hurley, Gabrielle; Weldon, Elizabeth

    2006-01-01

    This article reports on the teaching of a unit of lessons which integrates mathematics with studies of society and the environment. The unit entitled "Population Growth Rates" was taught to a double class of Year 6 students by a team of three teachers. The objectives of the unit were: (1) to provide students with a real-world context in…

  17. Connecting phenological predictions with population growth rates for mountain pine beetle, an outbreak insect

    Science.gov (United States)

    James A. Powell; Barbara J. Bentz

    2009-01-01

    It is expected that a significant impact of global warming will be disruption of phenology as environmental cues become disassociated from their selective impacts. However there are few, if any, models directly connecting phenology with population growth rates. In this paper we discuss connecting a distributional model describing mountain pine beetle phenology with a...

  18. Teaching Population Growth Using Cultures of Vinegar Eels, "Turbatrix aceti" (Nematoda)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Robert L.

    2005-01-01

    A simple laboratory exercise is presented that follows the population growth of the common vinegar eel, "Turbatrix aceti" (Nematoda), in a microcosm using a simple culture medium. It lends itself to an exercise in a single semester course. (Contains 4 figures.)

  19. Female strobili incidence in a Minnesota population of black spruce: heritability and correlation with height growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Dana Nelson; C. A. Mohn

    1989-01-01

    Significant family variation in female strobili incidence, ripeness-to-flower and production were found in a Minnesota black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) population tested at four locations. Heritability estimates indicated that gain in early flowering from selection would be possible. Height growth through age 12 years was positively correlated (genetic and...

  20. Population growth and the decline of natural Southern yellow pine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    David B. South; Edward R. Buckner

    2004-01-01

    Population growth has created social and economic pressures that affect the sustainability of naturally regenerated southern yellow pine forests. Major causes of this decline include (1) a shift in public attitudes regarding woods burning (from one favoring it to one that favors fire suppression) and (2) an increase in land values (especially near urban centers). The...

  1. Nutritional status and growth of children on macrobiotic diets : a population-based study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dagnelie, P.C.

    1988-01-01

    This thesis reports on the relationship between diet, growth, blood chemistry, psychomotor development, and clinical findings in the Dutch population of children on macrobiotic diets.- The macrobiotic diet mainly consisted of cereals, pulses and vegetables with small additions of seaweeds,

  2. Population growth in a wild bird is buffered against phenological mismatch

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reed, T.; Grotan, V.; Jenouvrier, S.; Saether, B.E.; Visser, M.E.

    2013-01-01

    road-scale environmental changes are altering patterns of natural selection in the wild, but few empirical studies have quantified the demographic cost of sustained directional selection in response to these changes. We tested whether population growth in a wild bird is negatively affected by

  3. Effects of population density on the growth and egg-laying capacity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effects of the population density of adult African giant land snail, Archachatina marginata on the egg-laying capacity and the growth of the brooders and hatchlings were investigated for 9 months. Ten culture pens were stocked with snails at 20%, 40%, 60%, 80% and 100% capacity with each group in 2 replicates.

  4. Calculating second derivatives of population growth rates for ecology and evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shyu, E.; Caswell, H.

    2014-01-01

    Second derivatives of the population growth rate measure the curvature of its response to demographic, physiological or environmental parameters. The second derivatives quantify the response of sensitivity results to perturbations, provide a classification of types of selection and provide one way

  5. Biomedical Social Science, Unit VI: Population Growth and Genetic Engineering. Student Text. Revised Version, 1977.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomedical Interdisciplinary Curriculum Project, Berkeley, CA.

    This collection of lessons and class activities covers two major concepts: (1) population growth and (2) genetic engineering. Lessons consist of readings, questions and answers, and problems of projects where appropriate. Issues are posed in as much as possible in a manner intended to cause the student to reach conclusions and values without being…

  6. An accessibility approach to railways and municipal population growth, 1840-1930

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijg, A.; Koopmans, C.; Rietveld, P.

    2010-01-01

    In the nineteenth century, railway networks strongly improved accessibility. In this paper we examine the impact of accessibility improvements on municipal population growth in the Netherlands between 1840 and 1930, using census data. By mapping a multimodal transport network and calculating the

  7. An accessibility approach to railways and municipal population growth, 1840-1930

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopmans, C.C.; Rietveld, P.; Huijg, A.

    2012-01-01

    In the 19th century, railway networks strongly improved accessibility. In this paper we examine the impact of accessibility improvements on municipal population growth in the Netherlands between 1840 and 1930, using census data. By mapping a multimodal transport network and calculating the shortest

  8. Population Genomics Reveal Recent Speciation and Rapid Evolutionary Adaptation in Polar Bears

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Shiping; Lorenzen, Eline D.; Fumagalli, Matteo; Li, Bo; Harris, Kelley; Xiong, Zijun; ZHOU, Long; Korneliussen, Thorfinn Sand; Somel, Mehmet; Babbitt, Courtney; Wray, Greg; Li, Jianwen; He, Weiming; Wang, Zhuo; Fu, Wenjing

    2014-01-01

    Polar bears are uniquely adapted to life in the High Arctic and have undergone drastic physiological changes in response to Arctic climates and a hyperlipid diet of primarily marine mammal prey. We analyzed 89 complete genomes of polar bear and brown bear using population genomic modeling and show that the species diverged only 479–343 thousand years BP. We find that genes on the polar bear lineage have been under stronger positive selection than in brown bears; nine of the top 16 genes under...

  9. Individualism in plant populations: using stochastic differential equations to model individual neighbourhood-dependent plant growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Qiming; Schneider, Manuel K; Pitchford, Jonathan W

    2008-08-01

    We study individual plant growth and size hierarchy formation in an experimental population of Arabidopsis thaliana, within an integrated analysis that explicitly accounts for size-dependent growth, size- and space-dependent competition, and environmental stochasticity. It is shown that a Gompertz-type stochastic differential equation (SDE) model, involving asymmetric competition kernels and a stochastic term which decreases with the logarithm of plant weight, efficiently describes individual plant growth, competition, and variability in the studied population. The model is evaluated within a Bayesian framework and compared to its deterministic counterpart, and to several simplified stochastic models, using distributional validation. We show that stochasticity is an important determinant of size hierarchy and that SDE models outperform the deterministic model if and only if structural components of competition (asymmetry; size- and space-dependence) are accounted for. Implications of these results are discussed in the context of plant ecology and in more general modelling situations.

  10. Growth Indicators of a 48-Clone Sugar Cane Population (Saccharum spp. with Forage Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoslen Fernández Gálvez

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper was to determine growth indicators in a 48-clone sugar cane population, with promising phenotypical features for forage production. The following indicators were assessed: leaf area (A, leaf area index (LA1; leaf area ratio (LAR; specific leaf area (SLA; leaf weight ratio (LWR; crop growth rate (CGR; net assimilation rate (NAR; relative growth rate in weight (RGR; biomass production speed (G; leaf area duration (LAD; and biomass duration (Z, monthly (187 - 370 days. The minimum, the mean, the maximum values, and the population variance were determined for all cutting ages and the variables assessed. The results achieved have provided quantitative values that can be used as reference for selection and assessment of forage genotypes for ruminant nutrition.

  11. Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abel, Guy J; Barakat, Bilal; Kc, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2016-12-13

    Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth.

  12. Genomic prediction for growth and reproduction traits in pig using an admixed reference population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, H; Zhang, J; Jiang, Y; Gao, H; Tang, S; Mi, S; Yu, F; Meng, Q; Xiao, W; Zhang, Q; Ding, X

    2017-08-01

    This study investigated the efficiency of genomic prediction using an admixed reference population comprising 3 Yorkshire populations with different genetic backgrounds. In total, 2,084 and 1,388 individuals with growth and reproduction records, respectively, were genotyped with a PorcineSNP80 marker panel. The corrected phenotypic values derived from conventional EBV of each population were taken as response variables. Three approaches, that is, a linear genomic BLUP (GBLUP) model, a Bayesian mixture model (BayesR), and single-step GBLUP (ssGBLUP), were implemented to predict genomic breeding values. Our results indicated that the accuracy of genomic prediction was increased by enlarging the reference population by admixing different populations. However, the improvement was lower than expected, because the relationships among individuals of different populations were not strong enough. Among the 3 approaches, for reproduction and growth traits, ssGBLUP produced 30 to approximately 38% and 23 to 31%, respectively, higher accuracy than GBLUP. And the ssGBLUP produced 28 to approximately 38% and 18 to approximately 31% higher accuracy than BayesR. In addition, ssGBLUP also yielded lower bias. In most situations, BayesR performed comparably to GBLUP for most traits. Our results indicated ssGBLUP using an admixed reference population is also meaningful for national joint genetic evaluation of Chinese pig breeding.

  13. Exploring features and opportunities of rapid-growth wine firms in Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge J. Román

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available While much has been studied regarding the wine industry in Spain and France, little has been studied in developing countries. The aim of this work is to study the characteristics of dynamic wine firms in Chile. This paper presents qualitative research and reports six cases of wine companies, where several variables are analyzed according to Barringer, Jones and Neubaum framework. These variables include prior experience, founders’ knowledge regarding large company management, the use of strategic-planning systems and the use of new technology in the majority of its production. The results of this research could prove insightful for wine entrepreneurs looking to enhance their growth, based on greater differentiation and innovation, and not only on being competitive in pricing.

  14. Rapid gut growth but persistent delay in digestive function in the postnatal period of preterm pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Carl Frederik; Thymann, Thomas; Andersen, Anders Daniel

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Preterm infants often tolerate full enteral nutrition few weeks after birth but it is not known how this is related to gut maturation. Using pigs as models, we hypothesized that intestinal structure and digestive function are similar in preterm and term individuals at 3-4 weeks after...... volume remained reduced in preterm pigs until 26 d although plasma glucagon-like peptide 2 (GLP-2) and glucose-dependent insulin-trophic peptide (GIP) levels were increased. Preterm pigs also showed reduced hexose absorptive capacity and brush-border enzyme (sucrase, maltase) activities at 26 d, relative...... to term pigs. CONCLUSION: Intestinal structure shows a remarkable growth adaptation in the first week after preterm birth, especially with enteral nutrition, while some digestive functions remain immature until at least 3-4 weeks. It is important to identify feeding regimens that stimulate intestinal...

  15. Method for rapid, controllable growth and thickness, of epitaxial silicon films

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qi [Littleton, CO; Stradins, Paul [Golden, CO; Teplin, Charles [Boulder, CO; Branz, Howard M [Boulder, CO

    2009-10-13

    A method of producing epitaxial silicon films on a c-Si wafer substrate using hot wire chemical vapor deposition by controlling the rate of silicon deposition in a temperature range that spans the transition from a monohydride to a hydrogen free silicon surface in a vacuum, to obtain phase-pure epitaxial silicon film of increased thickness is disclosed. The method includes placing a c-Si substrate in a HWCVD reactor chamber. The method also includes supplying a gas containing silicon at a sufficient rate into the reaction chamber to interact with the substrate to deposit a layer containing silicon thereon at a predefined growth rate to obtain phase-pure epitaxial silicon film of increased thickness.

  16. Rapid enzyme production and mycelial growth in solid-state fermentation using the non-airflow box.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Kazunari; Gomi, Katsuya; Kariyama, Masahiro; Miyake, Tsuyoshi

    2013-11-01

    Solid-state fermentation (SSF) has become an attractive alternative to submerged fermentation (SMF) for the production of enzymes, organic acids, and secondary metabolites, while there are many problems during the culture of SSF. We recently created a SSF system using a non-airflow box (NAB) in order to resolve the problems, which enabled the uniform culture in the whole substrate and high yield of many enzymes. In this paper, further characterization of SSF using the NAB was carried out to obtain other advantages. The NAB culture under the fixed environmental condition exhibited a rapid increase in enzyme production at earlier phase during the culture compared with conventional SSF. Total mycelial growth also exhibited the same trend as enzyme production. Thus, the increase in the rate of the enzyme production was thought to mainly be attributed to that of the growth. To support it, it was suggested that the NAB culture resulted in most optimal water activity for the growth just at the log phase. In addition, the NAB culture was able to achieve high reproducibility of enzyme production, derived from uniform condition of the substrate during the culture. The results indicate that the NAB culture has many benefits for SSF. Copyright © 2013 The Society for Biotechnology, Japan. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. A Universally Applicable and Rapid Method for Measuring the Growth of Streptomyces and Other Filamentous Microorganisms by Methylene Blue Adsorption-Desorption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Marco

    2013-01-01

    Quantitative assessment of growth of filamentous microorganisms, such as streptomycetes, is generally restricted to determination of dry weight. Here, we describe a straightforward methylene blue-based sorption assay to monitor microbial growth quantitatively, simply, and rapidly. The assay is equally applicable to unicellular and filamentous bacterial and eukaryotic microorganisms. PMID:23666340

  18. A Universally Applicable and Rapid Method for Measuring the Growth of Streptomyces and Other Filamentous Microorganisms by Methylene Blue Adsorption-Desorption

    OpenAIRE

    Fischer, Marco; Sawers, R. Gary

    2013-01-01

    Quantitative assessment of growth of filamentous microorganisms, such as streptomycetes, is generally restricted to determination of dry weight. Here, we describe a straightforward methylene blue-based sorption assay to monitor microbial growth quantitatively, simply, and rapidly. The assay is equally applicable to unicellular and filamentous bacterial and eukaryotic microorganisms.

  19. A universally applicable and rapid method for measuring the growth of streptomyces and other filamentous microorganisms by methylene blue adsorption-desorption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Marco; Sawers, R Gary

    2013-07-01

    Quantitative assessment of growth of filamentous microorganisms, such as streptomycetes, is generally restricted to determination of dry weight. Here, we describe a straightforward methylene blue-based sorption assay to monitor microbial growth quantitatively, simply, and rapidly. The assay is equally applicable to unicellular and filamentous bacterial and eukaryotic microorganisms.

  20. Uncertainty in population growth rates: determining confidence intervals from point estimates of parameters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleanor S Devenish Nelson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species.

  1. JOB DISCRIMINATION AGAINST WOMEN AND ENDOGENOUS POPULATION CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin ZHANG

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study examines economic growth and population change with discrimination against women in the labor market within the analytical framework of Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The study models dynamic interactions between wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, children caring, and leisure, population change with endogenous birth and mortality rates with gender discrimination. The production technology and markets are built on Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The basic mechanisms for population changes in the Barro-Becker fertility choice model and the Haavelmo population model are integrated to model the population change. This study also takes account of discrimination against woman in the labor market. We synthesize these dynamic forces in a compact framework by applying Zhang’s utility function. The model properties are studied by simulation. We find equilibrium points and illustrate motion of the dynamic system. We also examine the effects of changes in the discrimination against woman, the propensity to save, woman’s propensity to pursue leisure activities, the propensity to have children, woman’s human capital and man’s emotional involvement in children caring.

  2. Long-term growth performance and productivity of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L. populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Maria Hebda

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The phenotypic differentiation of 16 provenances of Scots pine originating from a wide variety of habitats that range from lowland to southern highland locations in Poland was assessed during 47 years of their growth and development in the Carpathian Mountains. The traits, including height, diameter at breast height, stem straightness, and crown width, were used to evaluate the differentiation of the provenances in their juvenile period and at maturity and were examined for patterns of local adaptation. The populations from northern Poland were characterized by the best growth and productivity, whereas provenances from central Poland had the best stem quality. There were some changes in growth between provenances observed during the experiment, but the stand volume (m3/ha in juvenile trees was closely correlated with that in mature trees (r = 0.979. There was a positive relationship between the productivity and the environmental conditions of the geographical origin of provenances with increasing values for the trees’ productivity from south to north. Additionally, the elevation above sea level of the original populations was inversely correlated with the growth achieved by the progeny. In general, most populations from the species distribution range in Poland tested in the severe climate conditions of the Carpathian Mountains showed good growth performance under that environment, characterized by low temperatures and short growing periods. Provenances from climatic zones outside mountain regions demonstrated great growth and productivity, which proved to be the most important for competitively outperforming the local populations. Our study demonstrates good adaptive potential of the tested provenances, as selection will favor fast-growing genotypes under the predicted environmental change scenario.

  3. FREQ-Seq: a rapid, cost-effective, sequencing-based method to determine allele frequencies directly from mixed populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lon M Chubiz

    Full Text Available Understanding evolutionary dynamics within microbial populations requires the ability to accurately follow allele frequencies through time. Here we present a rapid, cost-effective method (FREQ-Seq that leverages Illumina next-generation sequencing for localized, quantitative allele frequency detection. Analogous to RNA-Seq, FREQ-Seq relies upon counts from the >10(5 reads generated per locus per time-point to determine allele frequencies. Loci of interest are directly amplified from a mixed population via two rounds of PCR using inexpensive, user-designed oligonucleotides and a bar-coded bridging primer system that can be regenerated in-house. The resulting bar-coded PCR products contain the adapters needed for Illumina sequencing, eliminating further library preparation. We demonstrate the utility of FREQ-Seq by determining the order and dynamics of beneficial alleles that arose as a microbial population, founded with an engineered strain of Methylobacterium, evolved to grow on methanol. Quantifying allele frequencies with minimal bias down to 1% abundance allowed effective analysis of SNPs, small in-dels and insertions of transposable elements. Our data reveal large-scale clonal interference during the early stages of adaptation and illustrate the utility of FREQ-Seq as a cost-effective tool for tracking allele frequencies in populations.

  4. High resolution melting analytical platform for rapid prenatal and postnatal diagnosis of β-thalassemia common among Southeast Asian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prajantasen, Thanet; Fucharoen, Supan; Fucharoen, Goonnapa

    2015-02-20

    High resolution melting (HRM) analysis is a powerful technology for scanning sequence alteration. We have applied this HRM assay to screen common β-thalassemia mutations found among Southeast Asian population. Known DNA samples with 8 common mutations were used in initial development of the methods including -28 A-G, codon 17 A-T, IVSI-1G-T, IVSI-5G-C, codon 26G-A (Hb E), codons 41/42 -TTCT, codons 71/72+A and IVSII-654 C-T. Further validation was done on 60 postnatal and 6 prenatal diagnoses of β-thalassemia. Each mutation has specific HRM profile which could be used in rapid screening. Apart from those with DNA deletions, the results of HRM assay matched 100% with those of routine diagnosis made by routine allele specific PCR. In addition, the HRM assay could initially recognize three unknown mutations including a hitherto un-described one in Thai population. The established HRM assay should prove useful for rapid and high throughput platform for screening and prenatal diagnosis of β-thalassemia common in the region. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Effects of growth curve plasticity on size-structured population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Lai; Lin, Zhigui; Pedersen, Michael

    2011-01-01

    and reproduction. Moreover, the portion of surplus energy for reproduction is size-dependent and increases monotonically with size. Using the newly developed parameter continuation, we demonstrate their disparate effects on population dynamics. Results show that the size-dependent mechanism of energy allocation......The physiological-structured population models assume that a fixed fraction of energy intake is utilized for individual growth and maintenance while the remaining for adult fertility. The assumption results in two concerns: energy loss for juveniles and a reproduction dilemma for adults....... The dilemma results from the possibility that adults have to breed even if metabolic costs fail to be covered.We consider a size-structured population model, where standard metabolism is given top priority for utilizing energy intake and the surplus energy, if there is any, is distributed to individual growth...

  6. Effect of Cadmium on the population growth of the marine diatom Chaetoceros gracilis Schutt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovana Vera

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Phytoplankton constitutes the base of the trophic webs in the marine environment, so it is important to know the possible effects of pollutants on the algal populations. In the present paper the effect of cadmium on the population growth of the diatom Chaetoceros gracilis was assessed. The microalgae were cultured in the a modified “f/2” Guillard medium, and were exposed to different concentrations of cadmium between 50 and 100000 µg.–1, which produced an inhibitory effect from 20% to 99% on the population growth of Chaetoceros gracilis. Based on the dose (cadmium-response (inhibition relationship, a mean effective concentration (EC50% equal to 591 µg.L–1 of cadmium was obtained.

  7. Rapidly increasing body mass index among children, adolescents and young adults in a transitioning population, South Africa, 2008-15.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartorius, B; Sartorius, K; Taylor, M; Aagaard-Hansen, J; Dukhi, N; Day, C; Ndlovu, N; Slotow, R; Hofman, K

    2017-12-14

    There is a global epidemic of overweight and obesity; however, this rate of increase is even greater in some low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). South Africa (SA) is undergoing rapid socioeconomic and demographic changes that have triggered a rapid nutrition transition. The paper focuses on the recent rate of change of body mass index (BMI) among children, adolescents and young adults, further stratified by key sociodemographic factors. We analysed mean BMI of 28 247 individuals (including children) from 7301 households by age and year, from anthropometric data from four national cross-sectional (repeated panel) surveys using non-linear fitted curves and associated 95% confidence intervals. From 2008 to 2015, there was rapid rise in mean BMI in the 6-25 age band, with the highest risk (3-4+ BMI unit increase) among children aged 8-10 years. The increase was largely among females in urban areas and of middle-high socioeconomic standing. Prominent gains were also observed in certain rural areas, with extensive geographical heterogeneity across the country. We have demonstrated a major deviation from the current understanding of patterns of BMI increase, with a rate of increase substantially greater in the developing world context compared with the global pattern. This population-wide effect will have major consequences for national development as the epidemic of related non-communicable disease unfolds, and will overtax the national health care budget. Our refined understanding highlights that risks are further compounded for certain groups/places, and emphasizes that urgent geographical and population-targeted interventions are necessary. These interventions could include a sugar tax, clearer food labelling, revised school feeding programmes and mandatory bans on unhealthy food marketing to children.The scenario unfolding in South Africa will likely be followed in other LMICs.

  8. Dynamics of urban population growth in Nigeria: The role of repeated migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adepoju, A

    1976-02-01

    The paper examines the direct contribution of migration to the growth of the urban population both in terms of its mobility and stability components with special reference to Western Nigeria. The basis of the paper is a survey of urban migration conducted by the author in 1971-1972; the findings are supplemented where necessary by the 1952-1953 and 1963 census figures. Migration is a major factor in the growth of the urban population. The direct contribution by migrants to such growth can be traced to the following groups: the initial streams of migrants, the follow-up migrants and the potentially mobile migrants attracted from the migrants' communities of origin to the towns. Repeated migration by some migrants, particularly the young, the educated and the white collar-workers, are also major factors in the urban population growth. Such repeated migrations are predominantly urban to urban or turnover moves. The high mobility rate among a group of migrants tends to conceal the relative stability among the migrant population as a whole. Repeated migrants usually stay between 3 and 5 years at each destination, before moving on. A substantial proportion of migrants, mainly farmers, the less educated and the old, are relatively stable in the survey towns (Ife and Oshogho). The urban residence ration indices also indicate an increase in the rate of immigration, mainly of young persons, to the towns. The youthful age structure, the age selectivity in migration and the marital status of the young migrants tend to exacerbate the masculinity in the form of unbalanced sex ratio prevailing in most urban centers. The urban population is unlikely to be stable. The tendency for old migrants of rural origin to return to their villages at the end of their migration career and for contemporary migrants to consist predominantly of youths, will for the next generation or 2 lead to a young and unstable urban population.

  9. EVALUATION COMPREHENSION OF THE CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENT PHYSICAL GROWTH IN THE COURSE OF THE POPULATION RESEARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.R. Kuchma

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The urgency of the given research is intimately related to the necessity to choose the comprehension approaches to the evaluation of the children's physical growth, which may be applied in monitoring of the children collectives health status, planning and performance of the preventive and sanitary events at the group and population levels. The authors studied the socially different children collectives and examined 3,600 children and adolescents. They showed that the use of the regional modified regression scales, complex schemes and centile tables, i.e. regional standards based approaches to the evaluation of the physical growth would be comprehensive for the physical growth features of the children collectives subject to ethnic, climate and geographic as well as social and economic differences.Key words: physical growth, evaluation approaches, children, adolescents.

  10. POPULATION GENOMICS REVEAL RECENT SPECIATION AND RAPID EVOLUTIONARY ADAPTATION IN POLAR BEARS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shiping; Lorenzen, Eline D.; Fumagalli, Matteo; Li, Bo; Harris, Kelley; Xiong, Zijun; Zhou, Long; Korneliussen, Thorfinn Sand; Somel, Mehmet; Babbitt, Courtney; Wray, Greg; Li, Jianwen; He, Weiming; Wang, Zhuo; Fu, Wenjing; Xiang, Xueyan; Morgan, Claire C.; Doherty, Aoife; O’Connell, Mary J.; McInerney, James O.; Born, Erik W.; Dalén, Love; Dietz, Rune; Orlando, Ludovic; Sonne, Christian; Zhang, Guojie; Nielsen, Rasmus; Willerslev, Eske; Wang, Jun

    2014-01-01

    SUMMARY Polar bears are uniquely adapted to life in the High Arctic and have undergone drastic physiological changes in response to Arctic climates and a hyperlipid diet of primarily marine mammal prey. We analyzed 89 complete genomes of polar bear and brown bear using population genomic modeling and show that the species diverged only 479–343 thousand years BP. We find that genes on the polar bear lineage have been under stronger positive selection than in brown bears; nine of the top 16 genes under strong positive selection are associated with cardiomyopathy and vascular disease, implying important reorganization of the cardio-vascular system. One of the genes showing the strongest evidence of selection, APOB, encodes the primary lipoprotein component of low-density lipoprotein (LDL); functional mutations in APOB may explain how polar bears are able to cope with life-long elevated LDL levels that are associated with high risk of heart disease in humans. PMID:24813606

  11. Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

  12. Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gedir, Jay V.; Cain, James W.; Harris, Grant; Turnbull, Trey T.

    2015-01-01

    Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly

  13. Incorporating an extended dendritic growth model into the CAFE model for rapidly solidified non-dilute alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Jie; Wang, Bo [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China); Zhao, Shunli [Research Institute, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd, Shanghai 201900 (China); Wu, Guangxin [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China); Zhang, Jieyu, E-mail: zjy6162@staff.shu.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China); Yang, Zhiliang [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China)

    2016-05-25

    We have extended the dendritic growth model first proposed by Boettinger, Coriell and Trivedi (here termed EBCT) for microstructure simulations of rapidly solidified non-dilute alloys. The temperature-dependent distribution coefficient, obtained from calculations of phase equilibria, and the continuous growth model (CGM) were adopted in the present EBCT model to describe the solute trapping behaviors. The temperature dependence of the physical properties, which were not used in previous dendritic growth models, were also considered in the present EBCT model. These extensions allow the present EBCT model to be used for microstructure simulations of non-dilute alloys. The comparison of the present EBCT model with the BCT model proves that the considerations of the distribution coefficient and physical properties are necessary for microstructure simulations, especially for small particles with high undercoolings. Finally, the EBCT model was incorporated into the cellular automaton-finite element (CAFE) model to simulate microstructures of gas-atomized ASP30 high speed steel particles that were then compared with experimental results. Both the simulated and experimental results reveal that a columnar dendritic microstructure preferentially forms in small particles and an equiaxed microstructure forms otherwise. The applications of the present EBCT model provide a convenient way to predict the microstructure of non-dilute alloys. - Highlights: • A dendritic growth model was developed considering non-equilibrium distribution coefficient. • The physical properties with temperature dependence were considered in the extended model. • The extended model can be used to non-dilute alloys and the extensions are necessary in small particles. • Microstructure of ASP30 steel was investigated using the present model and verified by experiment.

  14. Rapid and accurate species and genomic species identification and exhaustive population diversity assessment of Agrobacterium spp. using recA-based PCR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shams, M; Vial, L; Chapulliot, D; Nesme, X; Lavire, C

    2013-07-01

    Agrobacteria are common soil bacteria that interact with plants as commensals, plant growth promoting rhizobacteria or alternatively as pathogens. Indigenous agrobacterial populations are composites, generally with several species and/or genomic species and several strains per species. We thus developed a recA-based PCR approach to accurately identify and specifically detect agrobacteria at various taxonomic levels. Specific primers were designed for all species and/or genomic species of Agrobacterium presently known, including 11 genomic species of the Agrobacterium tumefaciens complex (G1-G9, G13 and G14, among which only G2, G4, G8 and G14 still received a Latin epithet: pusense, radiobacter, fabrum and nepotum, respectively), A. larrymoorei, A. rubi, R. skierniewicense, A. sp. 1650, and A. vitis, and for the close relative Allorhizobium undicola. Specific primers were also designed for superior taxa, Agrobacterium spp. and Rhizobiaceace. Primer specificities were assessed with target and non-target pure culture DNAs as well as with DNAs extracted from composite agrobacterial communities. In addition, we showed that the amplicon cloning-sequencing approach used with Agrobacterium-specific or Rhizobiaceae-specific primers is a way to assess the agrobacterial diversity of an indigenous agrobacterial population. Hence, the agrobacterium-specific primers designed in the present study enabled the first accurate and rapid identification of all species and/or genomic species of Agrobacterium, as well as their direct detection in environmental samples. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  15. Postdischarge growth and development in a predominantly Hispanic, very low birth weight population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, George C; Ramamurthy, Rajam; Schoolfield, John; Matula, Kathleen

    2008-12-01

    The goals were to assess postdischarge growth and developmental progress of very low birth weight (birth weight: population and to identify predictors for neurodevelopmental impairment at 3 years of age. A cohort of 135 very low birth weight infants (gestational age: 23 to 35 weeks) were monitored to 3 years of age. Maternal and neonatal characteristics, anthropometric z scores, and developmental performance (using corrected age until 24 months) were analyzed collectively and according to gestational age groups. Specific criteria for failure to thrive and microcephaly were used. A characteristic pattern of poor weight gain in the first 12 months was followed by accelerated weight gain starting at 18 months, whereas head growth decreased at 18 months, with recovery beginning at 30 months of age. Infants born at gestational age of growth-impaired at 3 years of age, whereas infants born at gestational age of >or=27 weeks achieved catch-up growth by 30 months of age. Mean developmental scores also decreased in infancy, with improvements in motor development emerging at 18 months and cognitive skills at 30 months. Growth z scores, particularly for head growth, correlated with developmental scores. Infants born at gestational age of growth patterns that coincided with developmental progress in the first 3 years of life. Birth at gestational age of

  16. Are whooping cranes destined for extinction? Climate change imperils recruitment and population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Matthew J; Metzger, Kristine L; Harris, Grant M

    2017-04-01

    Identifying climatic drivers of an animal population's vital rates and locating where they operate steers conservation efforts to optimize species recovery. The population growth of endangered whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) hinges on juvenile recruitment. Therefore, we identify climatic drivers (solar activity [sunspots] and weather) of whooping crane recruitment throughout the species' life cycle (breeding, migration, wintering). Our method uses a repeated cross-validated absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach to identify drivers of recruitment. We model effects of climate change on those drivers to predict whooping crane population growth given alternative scenarios of climate change and solar activity. Years with fewer sunspots indicated greater recruitment. Increased precipitation during autumn migration signified less recruitment. On the breeding grounds, fewer days below freezing during winter and more precipitation during breeding suggested less recruitment. We predicted whooping crane recruitment and population growth may fall below long-term averages during all solar cycles when atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases, as expected, to 500 ppm by 2050. Species recovery during a typical solar cycle with 500 ppm may require eight times longer than conditions without climate change and the chance of population decline increases to 31%. Although this whooping crane population is growing and may appear secure, long-term threats imposed by climate change and increased solar activity may jeopardize its persistence. Weather on the breeding grounds likely affects recruitment through hydrological processes and predation risk, whereas precipitation during autumn migration may influence juvenile mortality. Mitigating threats or abating climate change should occur within ≈30 years or this wild population of whooping cranes may begin declining.

  17. Population structure, growth and production of a recent brachiopod from the Chilean fjord region

    KAUST Repository

    Baumgarten, Sebastian

    2013-12-04

    Magellania venosa, the largest recent brachiopod, occurs in clusters and banks in population densities of up to 416 ind m-2 in Comau Fjord, Northern Chilean fjord region. Below 15 m, it co-occurs with the mytilid Aulacomya atra and it dominates the benthic community below 20 m. To determine the question of why M. venosa is a successful competitor, the in situ growth rate of the brachiopod was studied and its overall growth performance compared with that of other brachiopods and mussels. The growth in length was measured between February 2011 and March 2012 after mechanical tagging and calcein staining. Settlement and juvenile growth were determined from recruitment tiles installed in 2009 and from subsequent photocensus. Growth of M. venosa is best described by the general von Bertalanffy growth function, with a maximum shell length (L∞) of 71.53 mm and a Brody growth constant (K) of 0.336 year-1. The overall growth performance (OGP index = 5.1) is the highest recorded for a rynchonelliform brachiopod and in the range of that for Mytilus chilensis (4.8-5.27), but lower than that of A. atra (5.74). The maximal individual production (PInd) is 0.29 g AFDM ind-1 year-1 at 42 mm shell length and annual production ranges from 1.28 to 89.25 g AFDM year-1 m-2 (1-57% of that of A. atra in the respective fjords). The high shell growth rate of M. venosa, together with its high overall growth performance may explain the locally high population density of this brachiopod in Comau Fjord. However, the production per biomass of the population (P/B--ratio) is low (0.535) and M. venosa may play only a minor role in the food chain. Settling dynamics indicates that M. venosa is a pioneer species with low juvenile mortality. The coexistence of the brachiopod and bivalve suggests that brachiopod survival is affected by neither the presence of potential brachiopod predators nor that of space competitors (i.e. mytilids).

  18. Population ecology of the gulf ribbed mussel across a salinity gradient: recruitment, growth and density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honig, Aaron; Supan, John; LaPeyre, Megan K.

    2015-01-01

    Benthic intertidal bivalves play an essential role in estuarine ecosystems by contributing to habitat provision, water filtration, and promoting productivity. As such, changes that impact population distributions and persistence of local bivalve populations may have large ecosystem level consequences. Recruitment, growth, mortality, population size structure and density of the gulf coast ribbed mussel, Geukensia granosissima, were examined across a salinity gradient in southeastern Louisiana. Data were collected along 100-m transects at interior and edge marsh plots located at duplicate sites in upper (salinity ~4 psu), central (salinity ~8 psu) and lower (salinity ~15 psu) Barataria Bay, Louisiana, U.S.A. Growth, mortality and recruitment were measured in established plots from April through November 2012. Mussel densities were greatest within the middle bay (salinity ~8) regardless of flooding regime, but strongly associated with highest stem densities of Juncus roemerianus vegetation. Mussel recruitment, growth, size and survival were significantly higher at mid and high salinity marsh edge sites as compared to all interior marsh and low salinity sites. The observed patterns of density, growth and mortality in Barataria Bay may reflect detrital food resource availability, host vegetation community distribution along the salinity gradient, salinity tolerance of the mussel, and reduced predation at higher salinity edge sites.

  19. Rapid Start-up and Loading of an Attached Growth, Simultaneous Nitrification/Denitrification Membrane Aerated Bioreactor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Caitlin E.; Pensinger, Stuart; Pickering, Karen D.; Barta, Daniel; Shull, Sarah A.; Vega, Letticia M.; Christenson, Dylan; Jackson, W. Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Membrane aerated bioreactors (MABR) are attached-growth biological systems used for simultaneous nitrification and denitrification to reclaim water from waste. This design is an innovative approach to common terrestrial wastewater treatments for nitrogen and carbon removal and implementing a biologically-based water treatment system for long-duration human exploration is an attractive, low energy alternative to physiochemical processes. Two obstacles to implementing such a system are (1) the "start-up" duration from inoculation to steady-state operations and (2) the amount of surface area needed for the biological activity to occur. The Advanced Water Recovery Systems (AWRS) team at JSC explored these two issues through two tests; a rapid inoculation study and a wastewater loading study. Results from these tests demonstrate that the duration from inoculation to steady state can be reduced to under two weeks, and that despite low ammonium removal rates, the MABRs are oversized.

  20. Population genomics reveal recent speciation and rapid evolutionary adaptation in polar bears.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shiping; Lorenzen, Eline D; Fumagalli, Matteo; Li, Bo; Harris, Kelley; Xiong, Zijun; Zhou, Long; Korneliussen, Thorfinn Sand; Somel, Mehmet; Babbitt, Courtney; Wray, Greg; Li, Jianwen; He, Weiming; Wang, Zhuo; Fu, Wenjing; Xiang, Xueyan; Morgan, Claire C; Doherty, Aoife; O'Connell, Mary J; McInerney, James O; Born, Erik W; Dalén, Love; Dietz, Rune; Orlando, Ludovic; Sonne, Christian; Zhang, Guojie; Nielsen, Rasmus; Willerslev, Eske; Wang, Jun

    2014-05-08

    Polar bears are uniquely adapted to life in the High Arctic and have undergone drastic physiological changes in response to Arctic climates and a hyper-lipid diet of primarily marine mammal prey. We analyzed 89 complete genomes of polar bear and brown bear using population genomic modeling and show that the species diverged only 479-343 thousand years BP. We find that genes on the polar bear lineage have been under stronger positive selection than in brown bears; nine of the top 16 genes under strong positive selection are associated with cardiomyopathy and vascular disease, implying important reorganization of the cardiovascular system. One of the genes showing the strongest evidence of selection, APOB, encodes the primary lipoprotein component of low-density lipoprotein (LDL); functional mutations in APOB may explain how polar bears are able to cope with life-long elevated LDL levels that are associated with high risk of heart disease in humans. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Rapid identification of causal mutations in tomato EMS populations via mapping-by-sequencing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Virginie; Bres, Cécile; Just, Daniel; Fernandez, Lucie; Tai, Fabienne Wong Jun; Mauxion, Jean-Philippe; Le Paslier, Marie-Christine; Bérard, Aurélie; Brunel, Dominique; Aoki, Koh; Alseekh, Saleh; Fernie, Alisdair R; Fraser, Paul D; Rothan, Christophe

    2016-12-01

    The tomato is the model species of choice for fleshy fruit development and for the Solanaceae family. Ethyl methanesulfonate (EMS) mutants of tomato have already proven their utility for analysis of gene function in plants, leading to improved breeding stocks and superior tomato varieties. However, until recently, the identification of causal mutations that underlie particular phenotypes has been a very lengthy task that many laboratories could not afford because of spatial and technical limitations. Here, we describe a simple protocol for identifying causal mutations in tomato using a mapping-by-sequencing strategy. Plants displaying phenotypes of interest are first isolated by screening an EMS mutant collection generated in the miniature cultivar Micro-Tom. A recombinant F2 population is then produced by crossing the mutant with a wild-type (WT; non-mutagenized) genotype, and F2 segregants displaying the same phenotype are subsequently pooled. Finally, whole-genome sequencing and analysis of allele distributions in the pools allow for the identification of the causal mutation. The whole process, from the isolation of the tomato mutant to the identification of the causal mutation, takes 6-12 months. This strategy overcomes many previous limitations, is simple to use and can be applied in most laboratories with limited facilities for plant culture and genotyping.

  2. Rapid and sensitive magnetoelastic biosensors for the detection of Salmonella typhimurium in a mixed microbial population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guntupalli, R; Lakshmanan, R S; Hu, J; Huang, T S; Barbaree, J M; Vodyanoy, V; Chin, B A

    2007-07-01

    In this article, we report the results of an investigation into the performance of a wireless, magnetoelastic biosensor designed to selectively detect Salmonella typhimurium in a mixed microbial population. The Langmuir-Blodgett (LB) monolayer technique was employed for antibody (specific to Salmonella sp.) immobilization on rectangular shaped strip magnetoelastic sensors (2 x 0.4 x 0.015 mm). Bacterial binding to the antibody on the sensor surface changes the resonance parameters, and these changes were quantified as a shift in the sensor's resonance frequency. Response of the sensors to increasing concentrations (5 x 10(1) to 5 x 10(8) cfu/ml) of S. typhimurium in a mixture of extraneous foodborne pathogens (Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Listeria monocytogenes) was studied. A detection limit of 5 x 10(3) cfu/ml and a sensitivity of 139 Hz/decade were observed for the 2 x 0.4 x 0.015 mm sensors. Binding kinetics studies have shown that the dissociation constant (K(d)) and the binding valencies for water samples spiked with S. typhimurium was 435 cfu/ml and 2.33 respectively. The presence of extraneous microorganisms in the mixture did not produce an appreciable change in the biosensor's dose response behavior.

  3. Rapid and unambiguous detection of DNase I hypersensitive site in rare population of cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Ping Zeng

    Full Text Available DNase I hypersensitive (DHS sites are important for understanding cis regulation of gene expression. However, existing methods for detecting DHS sites in small numbers of cells can lead to ambiguous results. Here we describe a simple new method, in which DNA fragments with ends generated by DNase I digestion are isolated and used as templates for two PCR reactions. In the first PCR, primers are derived from sequences up- and down-stream of the DHS site. If the DHS site exists in the cells, the first PCR will not produce PCR products due to the cuts of the templates by DNase I between the primer sequences. In the second PCR, one primer is derived from sequence outside the DHS site and the other from the adaptor. This will produce a smear of PCR products of different sizes due to cuts by DNase I at different positions at the DHS site. With this design, we detected a DHS site at the CD4 gene in two CD4 T cell populations using as few as 2×10(4 cells. We further validated this method by detecting a DHS site of the IL-4 gene that is specifically present in type 2 but not type 1 T helper cells. Overall, this method overcomes the interference by genomic DNA not cut by DNase I at the DHS site, thereby offering unambiguous detection of DHS sites in the cells.

  4. Dynamic large-scale chromosomal rearrangements fuel rapid adaptation in yeast populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shang-Lin Chang

    Full Text Available Large-scale genome rearrangements have been observed in cells adapting to various selective conditions during laboratory evolution experiments. However, it remains unclear whether these types of mutations can be stably maintained in populations and how they impact the evolutionary trajectories. Here we show that chromosomal rearrangements contribute to extremely high copper tolerance in a set of natural yeast strains isolated from Evolution Canyon (EC, Israel. The chromosomal rearrangements in EC strains result in segmental duplications in chromosomes 7 and 8, which increase the copy number of genes involved in copper regulation, including the crucial transcriptional activator CUP2 and the metallothionein CUP1. The copy number of CUP2 is correlated with the level of copper tolerance, indicating that increasing dosages of a single transcriptional activator by chromosomal rearrangements has a profound effect on a regulatory pathway. By gene expression analysis and functional assays, we identified three previously unknown downstream targets of CUP2: PHO84, SCM4, and CIN2, all of which contributed to copper tolerance in EC strains. Finally, we conducted an evolution experiment to examine how cells maintained these changes in a fluctuating environment. Interestingly, the rearranged chromosomes were reverted back to the wild-type configuration at a high frequency and the recovered chromosome became fixed in less selective conditions. Our results suggest that transposon-mediated chromosomal rearrangements can be highly dynamic and can serve as a reversible mechanism during early stages of adaptive evolution.

  5. Development and population growth of Hydra viridissima Pallas, 1766 (Cnidaria, Hydrozoa in the laboratory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FC. Massaro

    Full Text Available Hydras, the most representative freshwater Cnidaria, are of common occurrence in bodies of water in every continent except Antarctica. This study was planned with the aim of maintaining a population of Hydra viridissima in laboratory culture to enable the determination of the individual and population growth-rates of this species, as well as its population doubling time and generation time, with a view to employing these common animals as test-organisms in ecotoxicological assays. The organisms were maintained in reconstituted water at 20 ± 2 °C, illuminated at 800 lux with a photoperiod of 12 hours light: 12 hours dark, and were fed on neonates of the cladoceran Ceriodaphnia silvestrii (3 or 4 neonates per hydra, 3 times a week. The individual growth-rate (k of the species was 0.43, the maximum length of the column 2.53 mm and the generation time 6.6 ± 1.5 days on average. The hydra population showed an intrinsic growth-rate (r of 0.0468, according to the fitted curve, and a doubling time of 14.8 ± 2.63 days. Hydra viridissima is easy to grow in the laboratory and performs well in the conditions used in this study. It is thus a promising candidate test-organism for ecotoxicological studies.

  6. Trans-generational influences of sulfamethoxazole on lifespan, reproduction and population growth of Caenorhabditis elegans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zhenyang; Sun, Guohua; Liu, Yanjun; Yin, Daqiang; Zhang, Jing

    2017-01-01

    Trans-generational effects are increasingly used to indicate long-term influences of environmental pollutants. However, such studies can be complex and yield inconclusive results. In this study, the trans-generational effects of sulfamethoxazole (SMX) on Caenorhabditis elegans on lifespan, reproduction and population growth were tested for 7 consecutive generations, which included gestating generation (F0), embryo-exposed generation (F1), germline-exposed generation (F2), the first non-exposed generation (F3) and the three following generations (F4-F6). Results showed that lifespan was significantly affected by embryo exposure (F1) at 400µm SMX with a value as low as 47% of the control. The reproduction (a total brood size as 49% of the control) and population growth (81% of the control) were significantly affected in germline exposure (F2). Lifespan and reproduction were severely inhibited in non-exposed generations, confirming the real trans-generational effects. Notably, initial reproduction and reproduction duration showed opposite generation-related changes, indicating their interplay in the overall brood size. The population growth rate was well correlated with median lethal time, brood size and initial reproduction, which indicated that the population would increase when the nematodes lived longer and reproduced more offspring within shorter duration. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Trans-theta logistics: a new family of population growth sigmoid functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozusko, F; Bourdeau, M

    2011-12-01

    Sigmoid functions have been applied in many areas to model self limited population growth. The most popular functions; General Logistic (GL), General von Bertalanffy (GV), and Gompertz (G), comprise a family of functions called Theta Logistic ([Formula: see text] L). Previously, we introduced a simple model of tumor cell population dynamics which provided a unifying foundation for these functions. In the model the total population (N) is divided into reproducing (P) and non-reproducing/quiescent (Q) sub-populations. The modes of the rate of change of ratio P/N was shown to produce GL, GV or G growth. We now generalize the population dynamics model and extend the possible modes of the P/N rate of change. We produce a new family of sigmoid growth functions, Trans-General Logistic (TGL), Trans-General von Bertalanffy (TGV) and Trans-Gompertz (TG)), which as a group we have named Trans-Theta Logistic (T [Formula: see text] L) since they exist when the [Formula: see text] L are translated from a two parameter into a three parameter phase space. Additionally, the model produces a new trigonometric based sigmoid (TS). The [Formula: see text] L sigmoids have an inflection point size fixed by a single parameter and an inflection age fixed by both of the defining parameters. T [Formula: see text] L and TS sigmoids have an inflection point size defined by two parameters in bounding relationships and inflection point age defined by three parameters (two bounded). While the Theta Logistic sigmoids provided flexibility in defining the inflection point size, the Trans-Theta Logistic sigmoids provide flexibility in defining the inflection point size and age. By matching the slopes at the inflection points we compare the range of values of inflection point age for T [Formula: see text] L versus [Formula: see text] L for model growth curves.

  8. Population growth and the environment: Can we eat the cake and have it?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shmuel Amir

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Continuous population growth and the concomitant maintenance of a growth sustaining environment are not in conflict only if the rates of both economic and biological processes are slowed down steadily. For this to happen, individual and social impatience-lowering adaptations should be adopted, and the capital of the system, both economic and natural, has to be redistributed among the system interacting components to result in an ever more complex organizational web. In addition, these factors have to corroborate with a third element, the incorporation of an arsenal of varied technological innovations that improves the use of existing stocks.

  9. Genetic analysis of morphological traits in a new, versatile, rapid-cycling Brassica rapa recombinant inbred line population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagheri, Hedayat; El-Soda, Mohamed; van Oorschot, Inge; Hanhart, Corrie; Bonnema, Guusje; Jansen-van den Bosch, Tanja; Mank, Rolf; Keurentjes, Joost J. B.; Meng, Lin; Wu, Jian; Koornneef, Maarten; Aarts, Mark G. M.

    2012-01-01

    A recombinant inbred line (RIL) population was produced based on a wide cross between the rapid-cycling and self-compatible genotypes L58, a Caixin vegetable type, and R-o-18, a yellow sarson oil type. A linkage map based on 160 F7 lines was constructed using 100 Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), 130 AFLP®, 27 InDel, and 13 publicly available SSR markers. The map covers a total length of 1150 centiMorgan (cM) with an average resolution of 4.3 cM/marker. To demonstrate the versatility of this new population, 17 traits, related to plant architecture and seed characteristics, were subjected to quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis. A total of 47 QTLs were detected, each explaining between 6 and 54% of the total phenotypic variance for the concerned trait. The genetic analysis shows that this population is a useful new tool for analyzing genetic variation for interesting traits in B. rapa, and for further exploitation of the recent availability of the B. rapa whole genome sequence for gene cloning and gene function analysis. PMID:22912644

  10. Genetic analysis of morphological traits in a new, versatile, rapid-cycling Brassica rapa recombinant inbred line population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hedayat eBagheri

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available A recombinant inbred line (RIL population was produced based on a wide cross between the rapid-cycling and self-compatible genotypes L58, a Caixin vegetable type, and R-o-18, a yellow sarson oil type. A linkage map based on 160 F7 lines was constructed using 100 SNP, 130 AFLP®, 27 InDel and 13 publicly available SSR markers. The map covers a total length of 1150 cM with an average resolution of 4.3 cM/marker. To demonstrate the versatility of this new population, 17 traits, related to plant architecture and seed characteristics, were subjected to QTL analysis. A total of 47 QTLs were detected, each explaining between 6 to 54% of the total phenotypic variance for the concerned trait. The genetic analysis shows that this population is a useful new tool for analyzing genetic variation for interesting traits in B. rapa, and for further exploitation of the recent availability of the B. rapa whole genome sequence for gene cloning and gene function analysis.

  11. Beaver-mediated methane emission: The effects of population growth in Eurasia and the Americas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitfield, Colin J; Baulch, Helen M; Chun, Kwok P; Westbrook, Cherie J

    2015-02-01

    Globally, greenhouse gas budgets are dominated by natural sources, and aquatic ecosystems are a prominent source of methane (CH(4)) to the atmosphere. Beaver (Castor canadensis and Castor fiber) populations have experienced human-driven change, and CH(4) emissions associated with their habitat remain uncertain. This study reports the effect of near extinction and recovery of beavers globally on aquatic CH4 emissions and habitat. Resurgence of native beaver populations and their introduction in other regions accounts for emission of 0.18-0.80 Tg CH(4) year(-1) (year 2000). This flux is approximately 200 times larger than emissions from the same systems (ponds and flowing waters that became ponds) circa 1900. Beaver population recovery was estimated to have led to the creation of 9500-42 000 km(2) of ponded water, and increased riparian interface length of >200 000 km. Continued range expansion and population growth in South America and Europe could further increase CH(4) emissions.

  12. Econometric Based Modeling of Population Growth under Socio-cultual Constraints

    CERN Document Server

    Ausloos, Marcel; Herteliu, Claudiu; Ileanu, Bogdan Vasile

    2015-01-01

    There are many constraints on population growth or decay in a country: several are of socio-economic origins. Sometimes cultual constraints also exist: sexual intercourse is banned in various religions, during Nativity and Lent fasting periods. We analyzed data consisting of registered daily birth records for very long (35,429 points) time series and many (24,947,061) babies in Romania between 1905 and 2001 (97 years). The data was obtained from the 1992 and 2002 censuses. We grouped the population into two categories (Eastern Orthodox and Non-Orthodox) in order to distinguish cultual constraints. We performed extensive data analysis in a comparative manner for both groups. From such a long time series data analysis, it seems that the Lent fast has a more drastic effect than the Nativity fast over baby conception within the Eastern Orthodox population, thereby differently increasing the population ratio. Thereafter, we developed and tested econometric models where the dependent variable is the baby conception...

  13. Photosynthetic activity and proteomic analysis highlights the utilization of atmospheric CO2 by Ulva prolifera (Chlorophyta) for rapid growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huan, Li; Gu, Wenhui; Gao, Shan; Wang, Guangce

    2016-12-01

    Free-floating Ulva prolifera is one of the causative species of green tides. When green tides occur, massive mats of floating U. prolifera thalli accumulate rapidly in surface waters with daily growth rates as high as 56%. The upper thalli of the mats experience environmental changes such as the change in carbon source, high salinity, and desiccation. In this study, the photosynthetic performances of PSI and PSII in U. prolifera thalli exposed to different atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) levels were measured. Changes in photosynthesis within salinity treatments and dehydration under different CO2 concentrations were also analyzed. The results showed that PSII activity was enhanced as CO2 increased, suggesting that CO2 assimilation was enhanced and U. prolifera thalli can utilize CO2 in the atmosphere directly, even when under moderate stress. In addition, changes in the proteome of U. prolifera in response to salt stress were investigated. Stress-tolerance proteins appeared to have an important role in the response to salinity stress, whereas the abundance of proteins related to metabolism showed no significant change under low salinity treatments. These findings may be one of the main reasons for the extremely high growth rate of free-floating U. prolifera when green tides occur. © 2016 Phycological Society of America.

  14. Growth Strategy of Rhizomatous and Non-Rhizomatous Tall Fescue Populations in Response to Defoliation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Racheal H. Bryant

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to determine the morphology of rhizome production, in two contrasting rhizomatous (R and non-rhizomatous (NR tall fescue (Schedonorus arundinaceus (Schreb. Dumort populations, and to assess whether rhizome production is associated with changed biomass allocation or plant growth pattern. Growth of R and NR populations was compared, under hard defoliation (H, 50 mm stubble, lax defoliation (L, 100 mm stubble, or without defoliation (U, uncut. Populations were cloned and grown in a glasshouse and defoliated every three weeks, with destructive harvests performed at 6, 12 and 18 weeks. R plants allocated more biomass to root and less to pseudostem than NR plants. Plant tiller numbers were greatly reduced by defoliation, and R and NR populations differed in leaf formation strategy. R plants had narrower leaves than NR, but their leaves were longer, because of greater leaf elongation duration. R plants were more plastic than NR plants in response to defoliation. Ultimately, biomass allocation to rhizomes did not differ between populations but R plants exhibited a subtle shift in distribution of internode length with a few longer internode segments typically located on secondary and tertiary tillers.

  15. Population Growth of Pratylenchus penetrans on Winter Cover Crops Grown in the Pacific Northwest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forge, T A; Ingham, R E; Kaufman, D; Pinkerton, J N

    2000-03-01

    Population growth of Pratylenchus penetrans on 13 fall and winter cover crops was studied in the greenhouse and field. All crops except oat cv. Saia supported population growth of P. penetrans in greenhouse experiments, although the response of P. penetrans to oat cv. Saia varied considerably between experiments. The mean ratio of the final population density/initial population density (Pf/Pi) after 16 weeks for P. penetrans added to a greenhouse soil mix was 0.09, whereas Pf/Pi values after 10 weeks for two experiments with naturally infested soil were 0.95 and 2.3. Although P. penetrans increased on sudangrass cv. Trudan 8 and sudangrass x sorghum hybrid cv. SS 222, subsequent incorporation of sudangrass vegetation into soil reduced P. penetrans populations to preplant levels. Field experiments were inconclusive but suggested that oat cv. Saia or rye cv. Wheeler may be better choices for winter cover than weed-contaminated fallow or other crops on P. penetrans-infested sites in the Pacific Northwest.

  16. The Association between Natural Amenities, Rural Population Growth, and Long-Term Residents' Economic Well-Being

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Lori M; Boardman, Jason D.; Saint Onge, Jarron M.

    2005-01-01

    Population growth in rural areas characterized by high levels of natural amenities has recently received substantial research attention. A noted concern with amenity-driven rural population growth is its potential to raise local costs-of-living while yielding only low-wage service sector employment for long-term residents. The work presented here…

  17. Simultaneous inference of selection and population growth from patterns of variation in the human genome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Williamson, Scott H.; Hernandez, Ryan; Fledel-Alon, Adi

    2005-01-01

    Natural selection and demographic forces can have similar effects on patterns of DNA polymorphism. Therefore, to infer selection from samples of DNA sequences, one must simultaneously account for demographic effects. Here we take a model-based approach to this problem by developing predictions fo......-specific methods, and (iii) strong evidence for very recent population growth....... for patterns of polymorphism in the presence of both population size change and natural selection. If data are available from different functional classes of variation, and a priori information suggests that mutations in one of those classes are selectively neutral, then the putatively neutral class can...

  18. Texture control and growth mechanism of WSe{sub 2} film prepared by rapid selenization of W film

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Hongchao [State Key Laboratory of Powder Metallurgy, Central South University, Changsha 410083 (China); Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry Corporation Limited, Ganzhou 341300 (China); Gao, Di; Li, Kun; Pang, Mengde; Xie, Senlin [State Key Laboratory of Powder Metallurgy, Central South University, Changsha 410083 (China); Liu, Rutie, E-mail: llrrtt@csu.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Powder Metallurgy, Central South University, Changsha 410083 (China); Zou, Jianpeng [State Key Laboratory of Powder Metallurgy, Central South University, Changsha 410083 (China)

    2017-02-01

    Highlights: • We present a highly efficient method for preparing WSe{sub 2} film by rapid selenization. • The W film phase composition has little effect on WSe{sub 2} film orientation. • W film density is a critical factor that influences the WSe{sub 2} orientation. • A growth model was proposed for two kinds of WSe{sub 2} film textures. - Abstract: The tungsten diselenide (WSe{sub 2}) films with different orientation present unique properties suitable for specific applications, such as WSe{sub 2} with a C-axis⊥substrate for optoelectronics and WSe{sub 2} with a C-axis // substrate for electrocatalysts. Orientation control of WSe{sub 2} is essential for realizing the practical applications. In this letter, a WSe{sub 2} film has been prepared via rapid selenization of a magnetron-sputtered tungsten (W) film. The influence of the magnetron-sputtered W film on WSe{sub 2} film growth was studied systematically. Scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffractometry and high-resolution transmission electron microscopy were used to evaluate the morphology, microstructure and phase composition of the W and WSe{sub 2} films. The substrate temperature has a significant effect on the W film phase composition, but little effect on the WSe{sub 2} film orientation. The WSe{sub 2} orientation can be controlled by changing the W film microstructure. A dense W film that is deposited at low pressure is conducive to the formation of WSe{sub 2} with a C-axis⊥substrate, whereas a porous W film deposited at high pressure favors the formation of WSe{sub 2} with a C-axis // substrate. A growth model for the WSe{sub 2} film with different texture has been proposed based on the experimental results. The direction of selenium (Se) vapor diffusion differs at the top and side surfaces. This is a key factor for the preparation of anisotropic WSe{sub 2} films. Highly oriented WSe{sub 2} films with a C-axis⊥substrate grow from the dense W film deposited at low pressure because Se vapor

  19. Effects of Population Growth and Climate Variability on Sustainable Groundwater in Mali, West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Lutz

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater is increasingly relied on as a source of potable water in developing countries, but factors such as population growth, development, and climate variability, pose potential challenges for ongoing sustainable supply. The effect of these factors on the groundwater system was considered in four scenarios using a numerical model to represent the Bani area of Mali, West Africa. By 2040, population growth, climate variability, and development as urbanization, agriculture, and industry creates scenarios in which groundwater extraction is an increasingly larger percentage of the groundwater system. Consumption from agriculture and industry increases extraction rates from less than 1 to 3.8% of mean annual precipitation, which will likely affect the groundwater system. For instance, concentrated pumping in local areas may result in water level declines. The results of this study contribute to an ongoing evaluation of sustainable groundwater resources in West Africa.

  20. Fetal Growth and Risk of Stillbirth: A Population-Based Case–Control Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bukowski, Radek; Hansen, Nellie I.; Willinger, Marian; Reddy, Uma M.; Parker, Corette B.; Pinar, Halit; Silver, Robert M.; Dudley, Donald J.; Stoll, Barbara J.; Saade, George R.; Koch, Matthew A.; Rowland Hogue, Carol J.; Varner, Michael W.; Conway, Deborah L.; Coustan, Donald; Goldenberg, Robert L.

    2014-01-01

    Background Stillbirth is strongly related to impaired fetal growth. However, the relationship between fetal growth and stillbirth is difficult to determine because of uncertainty in the timing of death and confounding characteristics affecting normal fetal growth. Methods and Findings We conducted a population-based case–control study of all stillbirths and a representative sample of live births in 59 hospitals in five geographic areas in the US. Fetal growth abnormalities were categorized as small for gestational age (SGA) (percentile) or large for gestational age (LGA) (>90th percentile) at death (stillbirth) or delivery (live birth) using population, ultrasound, and individualized norms. Gestational age at death was determined using an algorithm that considered the time-of-death interval, postmortem examination, and reliability of the gestational age estimate. Data were weighted to account for the sampling design and differential participation rates in various subgroups. Among 527 singleton stillbirths and 1,821 singleton live births studied, stillbirth was associated with SGA based on population, ultrasound, and individualized norms (odds ratio [OR] [95% CI]: 3.0 [2.2 to 4.0]; 4.7 [3.7 to 5.9]; 4.6 [3.6 to 5.9], respectively). LGA was also associated with increased risk of stillbirth using ultrasound and individualized norms (OR [95% CI]: 3.5 [2.4 to 5.0]; 2.3 [1.7 to 3.1], respectively), but not population norms (OR [95% CI]: 0.6 [0.4 to 1.0]). The associations were stronger with more severe SGA and LGA (95th percentile). Analyses adjusted for stillbirth risk factors, subset analyses excluding potential confounders, and analyses in preterm and term pregnancies showed similar patterns of association. In this study 70% of cases and 63% of controls agreed to participate. Analysis weights accounted for differences between consenting and non-consenting women. Some of the characteristics used for individualized fetal growth estimates were missing and were replaced

  1. Fetal growth and risk of stillbirth: a population-based case-control study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radek Bukowski

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Stillbirth is strongly related to impaired fetal growth. However, the relationship between fetal growth and stillbirth is difficult to determine because of uncertainty in the timing of death and confounding characteristics affecting normal fetal growth.We conducted a population-based case-control study of all stillbirths and a representative sample of live births in 59 hospitals in five geographic areas in the US. Fetal growth abnormalities were categorized as small for gestational age (SGA (90th percentile at death (stillbirth or delivery (live birth using population, ultrasound, and individualized norms. Gestational age at death was determined using an algorithm that considered the time-of-death interval, postmortem examination, and reliability of the gestational age estimate. Data were weighted to account for the sampling design and differential participation rates in various subgroups. Among 527 singleton stillbirths and 1,821 singleton live births studied, stillbirth was associated with SGA based on population, ultrasound, and individualized norms (odds ratio [OR] [95% CI]: 3.0 [2.2 to 4.0]; 4.7 [3.7 to 5.9]; 4.6 [3.6 to 5.9], respectively. LGA was also associated with increased risk of stillbirth using ultrasound and individualized norms (OR [95% CI]: 3.5 [2.4 to 5.0]; 2.3 [1.7 to 3.1], respectively, but not population norms (OR [95% CI]: 0.6 [0.4 to 1.0]. The associations were stronger with more severe SGA and LGA (95th percentile. Analyses adjusted for stillbirth risk factors, subset analyses excluding potential confounders, and analyses in preterm and term pregnancies showed similar patterns of association. In this study 70% of cases and 63% of controls agreed to participate. Analysis weights accounted for differences between consenting and non-consenting women. Some of the characteristics used for individualized fetal growth estimates were missing and were replaced with reference values. However, a sensitivity analysis using

  2. Fetal growth and risk of stillbirth: a population-based case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bukowski, Radek; Hansen, Nellie I; Willinger, Marian; Reddy, Uma M; Parker, Corette B; Pinar, Halit; Silver, Robert M; Dudley, Donald J; Stoll, Barbara J; Saade, George R; Koch, Matthew A; Rowland Hogue, Carol J; Varner, Michael W; Conway, Deborah L; Coustan, Donald; Goldenberg, Robert L

    2014-04-01

    Stillbirth is strongly related to impaired fetal growth. However, the relationship between fetal growth and stillbirth is difficult to determine because of uncertainty in the timing of death and confounding characteristics affecting normal fetal growth. We conducted a population-based case-control study of all stillbirths and a representative sample of live births in 59 hospitals in five geographic areas in the US. Fetal growth abnormalities were categorized as small for gestational age (SGA) (percentile) or large for gestational age (LGA) (>90th percentile) at death (stillbirth) or delivery (live birth) using population, ultrasound, and individualized norms. Gestational age at death was determined using an algorithm that considered the time-of-death interval, postmortem examination, and reliability of the gestational age estimate. Data were weighted to account for the sampling design and differential participation rates in various subgroups. Among 527 singleton stillbirths and 1,821 singleton live births studied, stillbirth was associated with SGA based on population, ultrasound, and individualized norms (odds ratio [OR] [95% CI]: 3.0 [2.2 to 4.0]; 4.7 [3.7 to 5.9]; 4.6 [3.6 to 5.9], respectively). LGA was also associated with increased risk of stillbirth using ultrasound and individualized norms (OR [95% CI]: 3.5 [2.4 to 5.0]; 2.3 [1.7 to 3.1], respectively), but not population norms (OR [95% CI]: 0.6 [0.4 to 1.0]). The associations were stronger with more severe SGA and LGA (95th percentile). Analyses adjusted for stillbirth risk factors, subset analyses excluding potential confounders, and analyses in preterm and term pregnancies showed similar patterns of association. In this study 70% of cases and 63% of controls agreed to participate. Analysis weights accounted for differences between consenting and non-consenting women. Some of the characteristics used for individualized fetal growth estimates were missing and were replaced with reference values. However, a

  3. Influence of rapid rural-urban population migration on riverine nitrogen pollution: perspective from ammonia-nitrogen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wangshou; Swaney, Dennis P; Hong, Bongghi; Howarth, Robert W; Li, Xuyong

    2017-09-30

    China is undergoing a rapid transition from a rural to an urban society. This societal change is a consequence of a national drive toward economic prosperity. However, accelerated urban development resulting from rapid population migration from rural to urban lands has led to high levels of untreated sewage entering aquatic ecosystems directly. Consequently, many of these regions have been identified as hot spots of riverine nitrogen (N) pollution because of the increasing level of urban point-source discharge. In order to address this concern, we assessed effects of urban development on ammonia-nitrogen (AN) loads using a panel data regression model. The model, expressed as an exponential function of anthropogenic N inputs multiplied by a power function of streamflow, was applied to 20 subwatersheds of the Huai River Basin for the years 2003-2010. The results indicated that this model can account for 81% of the variation in annual AN fluxes over space and time. Application of this model to three scenarios of urban development and sewage treatment (termed urbanization priority, sustainable development, and environmental priority) suggests that future N pollution will inevitably deteriorate if current urban environmental management and investment are not significantly improved. Stronger support for environmental management is very critical to alleviate N pollution and improve water quality. More effort should focus on improving sewage treatment and the N removal rate of the current sewage system in light of the increasing degree of urbanization.

  4. Effect of microstructure on population growth parameters of Escherichia coli in gelatin-dextran systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boons, Kathleen; Noriega, Estefanía; Van den Broeck, Rob; David, Charlotte C; Hofkens, Johan; Van Impe, Jan F

    2014-09-01

    Current literature acknowledges the effect of food structure on bacterial dynamics. Most studies introduce this "structure" factor using a single gelling agent, resulting in a homogeneous environment, whereas in practice most food products are heterogeneous. Therefore, this study focuses on heterogeneous protein-polysaccharide mixtures, based on gelatin and dextran. These mixtures show phase separation, leading to a range of heterogeneous microstructures by adjusting relative concentrations of both gelling agents. Based on confocal microscope observations, the growth of Escherichia coli in gelatin-dextran systems was observed to occur in the dextran phase. To find a relation between microscopic and population behavior, growth experiments were performed in binary and singular gelatin-dextran systems and culture broth at 23.5°C, with or without adding 2.9% (wt/vol) NaCl. The Baranyi and Roberts growth model was fitted to the experimental data and parameter estimates were statistically compared. For salted binary mixtures, a decrease in the population maximum cell density was observed with increasing gelatin concentration. In this series, for one type of microstructure, i.e., a gelatin matrix phase with a disperse dextran phase, the maximum cell density decreased with decreasing percentage of dextran phase. However, this relation no longer held when other types of microstructure were observed. Compared to singular systems, adding a second gelling agent in the presence of NaCl had an effect on population lag phases and maximum cell densities. For unsalted media, the growth parameters of singular and binary mixtures were comparable. Introducing this information into mathematical models leads to more reliable growth predictions and enhanced food safety. Copyright © 2014, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  5. Growth Performance Of Mono-Sex And Mixed Sex Population Of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The growth performance of all-male, all-female and mixed sex population of Oreochromis niloticus fed similar diet was carried out. The fingerlings used in the study were of relatively similar weight ranges (24.8 g – 26.6 g) with initial mean weight of 25.7±1.3 g and initial mean total length of 3.8 ± 1.5 cm. The mean increase ...

  6. Early growth stages salinity stress tolerance in CM72 x Gairdner doubled haploid barley population

    OpenAIRE

    Angessa, Tefera Tolera; Zhang, Xiao-Qi; Zhou, Gaofeng; Broughton, Sue; Zhang, Wenying; Li, Chengdao

    2017-01-01

    A doubled haploid (DH) population of barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) generated from salinity tolerant genotype CM72 and salinity sensitive variety Gairdner was studied for salinity stress tolerance at germination, seedling emergence and first leaf full expansion growth stages. Germination study was conducted with deionized water, 150 mM and 300 mM NaCl treatments. Seedling stage salinity tolerance was conducted with three treatments: control, 150 mM NaCl added at seedling emergence and first leaf...

  7. Transforming growth factor-β signaling is constantly shaping memory T-cell population

    OpenAIRE

    Ma, Chaoyu; Zhang, Nu

    2015-01-01

    A persistent memory T-cell population is the basis for successful T-cell–based vaccine against pathogens. Numerous extracellular and intracellular molecules have been demonstrated to play critical roles in the differentiation of memory T cells; however, the mechanisms that control the long-term maintenance of memory T cells remain incompletely understood. Here we show that continuous transforming growth factor-β signaling is required to maintain the identity of memory T cells.

  8. Non-occupational exposure to paint fumes during pregnancy and fetal growth in a general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Mette; Andersen, Anne-Marie N; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole

    2010-01-01

    Occupational exposure to organic solvents during pregnancy has been associated with reduced fetal growth. Though organic solvents in the form of paint fumes are also found in the home environment, no studies have investigated the effect of such exposure in a general population. We studied...... associations between residential exposure to paint fumes during pregnancy and fetal growth within the Danish National Birth Cohort which consecutively recruited pregnant women from 1996 to 2002 from all over Denmark. Around the 30th pregnancy week, 19,000 mothers were interviewed about use of paint...... of preterm birth after adjustment for potential confounders. Our results suggest that there are no causal relationship between non-occupational exposure to paint fumes in the residence during pregnancy and fetal growth....

  9. Uropathogenic Escherichia coli Express Type 1 Fimbriae Only in Surface Adherent Populations Under Physiological Growth Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stærk, Kristian; Khandige, Surabhi; Kolmos, Hans Jørn; Møller-Jensen, Jakob; Andersen, Thomas Emil

    2016-02-01

    Most uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC) strains harbor genes encoding adhesive type 1 fimbria (T1F). T1F is a key factor for successful establishment of urinary tract infection. However, UPEC strains typically do not express T1F in the bladder urine, and little is understood about its induction in vivo. A flow chamber infection model was used to grow UPEC under conditions simulating distinct infection niches in the bladder. Type 1 fimbriation on isolated UPEC was subsequently determined by yeast cell agglutination and immunofluorescence microscopy, and the results were correlated with the ability to adhere to and invade cultured human bladder cells. Although inactive during planktonic growth in urine, T1F expression occurs when UPEC settles on and infects bladder epithelial cells or colonizes catheters. As a result, UPEC in these sessile populations enhances bladder cell adhesion and invasion potential. Only T1F-negative UPEC are subsequently released to the urine, thus limiting T1F expression to surface-associated UPEC alone. Our results demonstrate that T1F expression is strictly regulated under physiological growth conditions with increased expression during surface growth adaptation and infection of uroepithelial cells. This leads to separation of UPEC into low-expression planktonic populations and high-expression sessile populations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Population growth, interest rate, and housing tax in the transitional China

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

    2017-03-01

    This paper combines and develops the models in Lastrapes (2002) and Mankiw and Weil (1989), which enables us to analyze the effects of interest rate and population growth shocks on housing price in one integrated framework. Based on this model, we carry out policy simulations to examine whether the housing (stock or flow) tax reduces the housing price fluctuations caused by interest rate or population growth shocks. Simulation results imply that the choice of housing tax tools depends on the kind of shock that housing market faces. In the situation where the housing price volatility is caused by the population growth shock, the flow tax can reduce the volatility of housing price while the stock tax makes no difference to it. If the shock is resulting from the interest rate, the policy maker should not impose any kind of the housing taxes. Furthermore, the effect of one kind of the housing tax can be strengthened by that of the other type of housing tax.

  11. Determining individual variation in growth and its implication for life-history and population processes using the empirical Bayes method.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Vincenzi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth and L∞ (asymptotic size. Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC, the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish.

  12. Determining Individual Variation in Growth and Its Implication for Life-History and Population Processes Using the Empirical Bayes Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Crivelli, Alain J.; Munch, Stephan; Skaug, Hans J.

    2014-01-01

    The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish. PMID:25211603

  13. Determining individual variation in growth and its implication for life-history and population processes using the empirical Bayes method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Crivelli, Alain J; Munch, Stephan; Skaug, Hans J

    2014-09-01

    The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and L∞ (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish.

  14. Developmental evolution facilitates rapid adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Hui; Kazlauskas, Romas J; Travisano, Michael

    2017-11-21

    Developmental evolution has frequently been identified as a mode for rapid adaptation, but direct observations of the selective benefits and associated mechanisms of developmental evolution are necessarily challenging to obtain. Here we show rapid evolution of greatly increased rates of dispersal by developmental changes when populations experience stringent selection. Replicate populations of the filamentous fungus Trichoderma citrinoviride underwent 85 serial transfers, under conditions initially favoring growth but not dispersal. T. citrinoviride populations shifted away from multicellular growth toward increased dispersal by producing one thousand times more single-celled asexual conidial spores, three times sooner than the ancestral genotype. Conidia of selected lines also germinated fifty percent faster. Gene expression changed substantially between the ancestral and selected fungi, especially for spore production and growth, demonstrating rapid evolution of tight regulatory control for down-regulation of growth and up-regulation of conidia production between 18 and 24 hours of growth. These changes involved both developmentally fixed and plastic changes in gene expression, showing that complex developmental changes can serve as a mechanism for rapid adaptation.

  15. Population Divergence in Venom Bioactivities of Elapid Snake Pseudonaja textilis: Role of Procoagulant Proteins in Rapid Rodent Prey Incapacitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skejić, Jure; Hodgson, Wayne C.

    2013-01-01

    This study looked at how toxic proteins in venoms of adult Australian eastern Brown snakes Pseudonaja textilis from South Australian and Queensland populations interact with physiological functions of the lab SD rat Rattus norvegicus. Circulatory collapse and incoagulable blood occurred instantly after injection of venom under the dorsal skin of anaesthetised and mechanically ventilated rats in an imitation of a P. textilis bite. Intravenous injection of purified P. textilis (Mackay, QLD) venom prothrombin activator proteins caused instant failure of circulation, testifying of high toxicity of these proteins and suggesting their role in rapid incapacitation of rodent prey. The hypothesis is further supported by circulatory collapse occurring instantly despite artificial respiration in envenomed rats and the finding of extremely high venom procoagulant potency in rat plasma. LC-MS and physiology assays revealed divergent venom composition and biological activity of South Australian (Barossa locality) and Queensland (Mackay locality) populations, which may be driven by selection for different prey. The Queensland venom of P. textilis was found to be more procoagulant and to exhibit predominately presynaptic neurotoxicity, while the South Australian venom contained diverse postsynaptic type II and III α-neurotoxins in addition to the presynaptic neurotoxins and caused significantly faster onset of neuromuscular blockade in the rat phrenic nerve-diaphragm preparation. LC-MS analysis found evidence of multiple coagulation factor X-like proteins in P. textilis venoms, including a match to P. textilis coagulation factor X isoform 2, previously known to be expressed only in the liver. PMID:23691135

  16. Rapidly rising incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in Chinese population: epidemiology in Shanghai during 1997-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhuhui; Sun, Chengjun; Wang, Chunfang; Li, Pin; Wang, Wei; Ye, Jun; Gu, Xuefan; Wang, Xiaodong; Shen, Shuixian; Zhi, Dijing; Lu, Zhong; Ye, Rong; Cheng, Ruoqian; Xi, Li; Li, Xiaojing; Zheng, Zhangqian; Zhang, Miaoying; Luo, Feihong

    2014-12-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate incidence trend of childhood type 1 diabetes in Shanghai, a megalopolis in east China. We established a population-based retrospective registry for the disease in the city's registered population during 1997-2011 and collected 622 incident type 1 diabetes in children aged 0-14 years. Standardized incidence rates and 95 % CI were estimated by applying the capture-recapture method and assuming Poisson distribution. Incidence trend was analyzed using the Poisson regression model. The mean annual incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes was 3.1 per 100,000 person-years. We did not observe significant difference in incidence between boys and girls. The incidence is unstable and had a mean annual increase 14.2 % per year during the studied period. A faster annual increase was observed in boys, warmer seasons, and in the outer regions of the city. If present trends continue, the number of new type 1 diabetes cases will double from 2016 to 2020, and prevalent cases will sextuple by 2025. Our results showed the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes was rising rapidly in Shanghai. More studies are needed to analyze incidence changes in other regions of China for appropriate allocation of healthcare resources.

  17. Population divergence in venom bioactivities of elapid snake Pseudonaja textilis: role of procoagulant proteins in rapid rodent prey incapacitation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jure Skejić

    Full Text Available This study looked at how toxic proteins in venoms of adult Australian eastern Brown snakes Pseudonaja textilis from South Australian and Queensland populations interact with physiological functions of the lab SD rat Rattus norvegicus. Circulatory collapse and incoagulable blood occurred instantly after injection of venom under the dorsal skin of anaesthetised and mechanically ventilated rats in an imitation of a P. textilis bite. Intravenous injection of purified P. textilis (Mackay, QLD venom prothrombin activator proteins caused instant failure of circulation, testifying of high toxicity of these proteins and suggesting their role in rapid incapacitation of rodent prey. The hypothesis is further supported by circulatory collapse occurring instantly despite artificial respiration in envenomed rats and the finding of extremely high venom procoagulant potency in rat plasma. LC-MS and physiology assays revealed divergent venom composition and biological activity of South Australian (Barossa locality and Queensland (Mackay locality populations, which may be driven by selection for different prey. The Queensland venom of P. textilis was found to be more procoagulant and to exhibit predominately presynaptic neurotoxicity, while the South Australian venom contained diverse postsynaptic type II and III α-neurotoxins in addition to the presynaptic neurotoxins and caused significantly faster onset of neuromuscular blockade in the rat phrenic nerve-diaphragm preparation. LC-MS analysis found evidence of multiple coagulation factor X-like proteins in P. textilis venoms, including a match to P. textilis coagulation factor X isoform 2, previously known to be expressed only in the liver.

  18. Rapid changes in transcription profiles of the Plasmodium yoelii yir multigene family in clonal populations: lack of epigenetic memory?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deirdre Cunningham

    Full Text Available The pir multigene family, found in the genomes of Plasmodium vivax, P. knowlesi and the rodent malaria species, encode variant antigens that could be targets of the immune response. Individual parasites of the rodent malaria Plasmodium yoelii, selected by micromanipulation, transcribe only 1 to 3 different pir (yir suggesting tight transcriptional control at the level of individual cells. Using microarray and quantitative RT-PCR, we show that despite this very restricted transcription in a single cell, many yir genes are transcribed throughout the intra-erythrocytic asexual cycle. The timing and level of transcription differs between genes, with some being more highly transcribed in ring and trophozoite stages, whereas others are more highly transcribed in schizonts. Infection of immunodeficient mice with single infected erythrocytes results in populations of parasites each with transcriptional profiles different from that of the parent parasite population and from each other. This drift away from the original 'set' of transcribed genes does not appear to follow a preset pattern and "epigenetic memory" of the yir transcribed in the parent parasite can be rapidly lost. Thus, regulation of pir gene transcription may be different from that of the well-characterised multigene family, var, of Plasmodium falciparum.

  19. Rapid changes in transcription profiles of the Plasmodium yoelii yir multigene family in clonal populations: lack of epigenetic memory?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Deirdre; Fonager, Jannik; Jarra, William; Carret, Celine; Preiser, Peter; Langhorne, Jean

    2009-01-01

    The pir multigene family, found in the genomes of Plasmodium vivax, P. knowlesi and the rodent malaria species, encode variant antigens that could be targets of the immune response. Individual parasites of the rodent malaria Plasmodium yoelii, selected by micromanipulation, transcribe only 1 to 3 different pir (yir) suggesting tight transcriptional control at the level of individual cells. Using microarray and quantitative RT-PCR, we show that despite this very restricted transcription in a single cell, many yir genes are transcribed throughout the intra-erythrocytic asexual cycle. The timing and level of transcription differs between genes, with some being more highly transcribed in ring and trophozoite stages, whereas others are more highly transcribed in schizonts. Infection of immunodeficient mice with single infected erythrocytes results in populations of parasites each with transcriptional profiles different from that of the parent parasite population and from each other. This drift away from the original 'set' of transcribed genes does not appear to follow a preset pattern and "epigenetic memory" of the yir transcribed in the parent parasite can be rapidly lost. Thus, regulation of pir gene transcription may be different from that of the well-characterised multigene family, var, of Plasmodium falciparum.

  20. REGIONAL COMPONENTS OF GROWTH THE QUALITY OF LIFE OF THE POPULATION (FOR EXAMPLE, VORONEZH REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Serebryakova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available At the present stage of development of economy there is a transformation of main objectives of the state from ensuring growth of welfare of citizens to ensuring continuous growth of quality of life. Ensuring growth of quality of life of the population is carried out not only on state, but also on regional levels. At the state level key tasks are formed, the state assumes a considerable share of functions on achievement of the designated purpose. In the real research the attention to consideration of the program documents directed on improvement of quality of life of the population on the example of the Voronezh region is paid. The program documents of a social orientation existing in the region are for this purpose studied. It is revealed that in the region a number of the programs and subprogrammes aimed at improvement of a demographic situation, improvement of a regional budgetary and tax policy, social support of citizens in general works. As tools which use regional authorities, are noted: social standards, address social help, social contracts. It is established that introduction of system of social contracts allows to save budget funds and, at the same time, to motivate the persons which are in a difficult life situation on change of the situation to the best, joint efforts with social security authorities. It is noted that as the leading principles of rendering the social help paramount value has detailed definition of degree of need of the help and a condition of granting. The last often generate dependant moods which are important for leveling, using levers of social interaction. The analysis of the contents of the realized programs for improvement of quality of life of the population allowed to reveal advantages and defects in these programs, and also to define reserves of growth of quality of life. So, it is specified that program documents of regional level in the prevailing majority have a narrow focus on ensuring the help and

  1. Climate threats on growth of rear-edge European beech peripheral populations in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorado-Liñán, I.; Akhmetzyanov, L.; Menzel, A.

    2017-12-01

    European beech ( Fagus sylvatica L.) forests in the Iberian Peninsula are a clear example of a temperate forest tree species at the rear edge of its large distribution area in Europe. The expected drier and warmer climate may alter tree growth and species distribution. Consequently, the peripheral populations will most likely be the most threatened ones. Four peripheral beech forests in the Iberian Peninsula were studied in order to assess the climate factors influencing tree growth for the last six decades. The analyses included an individual tree approach in order to detect not only the changes in the sensitivity to climate but also the potential size-mediated sensitivity to climate. Our results revealed a dominant influence of previous and current year summer on tree growth during the last six decades, although the analysis in two equally long periods unveiled changes and shifts in tree sensitivity to climate. The individual tree approach showed that those changes in tree response to climate are not size dependent in most of the cases. We observed a reduced negative effect of warmer winter temperatures at some sites and a generalized increased influence of previous year climatic conditions on current year tree growth. These results highlight the crucial role played by carryover effects and stored carbohydrates for future tree growth and species persistence.

  2. Anatomy of a bottleneck: diagnosing factors limiting population growth in the Puerto Rican parrot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beissenger, S.R.; Wunderle, J.M.; Meyers, J.M.; Saether, B.-E.; Engen, S.

    2008-01-01

    The relative importance of genetic, demographic, environmental, and catastrophic processes that maintain population bottlenecks has received little consideration. We evaluate the role of these factors in maintaining the Puerto Rican Parrot (Amazona vittata) in a prolonged bottleneck from 1973 through 2000 despite intensive conservation efforts. We first conduct a risk analysis, then examine evidence for the importance of specific processes maintaining the bottleneck using the multiple competing hypotheses approach, and finally integrate these results through a sensitivity analysis of a demographic model using life-stage simulation analysis (LSA) to determine the relative importance of genetic, demographic, environmental, and catastrophic processes on population growth. Annual population growth has been slow and variable (1.0 6 5.2 parrots per year, or an average k?1.05 6 0.19) from 16 parrots (1973) to a high of 40-42 birds (1997-1998). A risk analysis based on population prediction intervals (PPI) indicates great risk and large uncertainty, with a range of 22?83 birds in the 90% PPI only five years into the future. Four primary factors (reduced hatching success due to inbreeding, failure of adults to nest, nest failure due to nongenetic causes, and reduced survival of adults and juveniles) were responsible for maintaining the bottleneck. Egghatchability rates were low (70.6% per egg and 76.8% per pair), and hatchability increased after mate changes, suggesting inbreeding effects. Only an average of 34% of the population nested annually, which was well below the percentage of adults that should have reached an age of first breeding (41-56%). This chronic failure to nest appears to have been caused primarily by environmental and/or behavioral factors, and not by nest-site scarcity or a skewed sex ratio. Nest failure rates from nongenetic causes (i.e., predation, parasitism, and wet cavities) were low (29%) due to active management (protecting nests and fostering

  3. Spatial analysis of cattle and shoat population in Ethiopia: growth trend, distribution and market access.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leta, Samson; Mesele, Frehiwot

    2014-01-01

    The livestock subsector has an enormous contribution to Ethiopia's national economy and livelihoods of many Ethiopians. The subsector contributes about 16.5% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 35.6% of the agricultural GDP. It also contributes 15% of export earnings and 30% of agricultural employment. The livestock subsector currently support and sustain livelihoods for 80% of all rural population. The GDP of livestock related activities valued at 59 billion birr. Ethiopian livestock population trends, distribution and marketing vary considerably across space and time due to a variety of reasons. This study was aimed to assess cattle and shoat population growth trend, distribution and their access to market. Regression analysis was used to assess the cattle and shoat population growth trend and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques were used to determine the spatial distribution of cattle and shoats, and their relative access to market. The data sets used are agricultural census (2001/02) and annual CSA agricultural sample survey (1995/96 to 2012/13). In the past eighteen years, the livestock population namely cattle, sheep and goat grew from 54.5 million to over 103.5 million with average annual increment of 3.4 million. The current average national cattle, sheep and goat population per km(2) are estimated to be 71, 33 and 29 respectively (excluding Addis Ababa, Afar and Somali regions). From the total livestock population the country owns about 46% cattle, 43% sheep and 40% goats are reared within 10 km radius from major livestock market centres and all-weather roads. On the other hand, three fourth of the country's land mass which comprises 15% of the cattle, 20% of the sheep and 21% of goat population is not accessible to market (greater than 30 km from major livestock market centres). It is found that the central highland regions account for the largest share of livestock population and also more accessible to market. Defining the

  4. Integrating physiological and biomechanical drivers of population growth over environmental gradients on coral reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madin, Joshua S; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Connolly, Sean R

    2012-03-15

    Coral reefs exhibit marked spatial and temporal variability, and coral reef organisms exhibit trade-offs in functional traits that influence demographic performance under different combinations of abiotic environmental conditions. In many systems, trait trade-offs are modelled using an energy and/or nutrient allocation framework. However, on coral reefs, differences in biomechanical vulnerability have major demographic implications, and indeed are believed to play an essential role in mediating species coexistence because highly competitive growth forms are vulnerable to physical dislodgment events that occur with high frequency (e.g. annual summer storms). Therefore, an integrated energy allocation and biomechanics framework is required to understand the effect of physical environmental gradients on species' demographic performance. However, on coral reefs, as in most ecosystems, the effects of environmental conditions on organisms are measured in different currencies (e.g. lipid accumulation, survival and number of gametes), and thus the relative contributions of these effects to overall capacity for population growth are not readily apparent. A comprehensive assessment of links between the environment and the organism, including those mediated by biomechanical processes, must convert environmental effects on individual-level performance (e.g. survival, growth and reproduction) into a common currency that is relevant to the capacity to contribute to population growth. We outline such an approach by considering the population-level performance of scleractinian reef corals over a hydrodynamic gradient, with a focus on the integrating the biomechanical determinants of size-dependent coral colony dislodgment as a function of flow, with the effects of flow on photosynthetic energy acquisition and respiration.

  5. Does Size Matter? A Study of Risk Perceptions of Global Population Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Ian G J; Johnson, Johnnie E V

    2017-01-01

    The global human population now exceeds 7 billion and is projected to reach 10 billion around 2060. While population growth has been associated with certain benefits (e.g., economies of scale, technological advancements), theoretical models, probabilistic projections, and empirical evidence also indicate that this growth could increase the likelihood of many adverse events (e.g., climate change, resource shortages) and the impact of these events, as more people are exposed to the outcomes. While concerns about these issues are well-documented in the academic literature, there is little evidence concerning the public's perceptions of the risks associated with global population growth (GPG) and how these perceptions are likely to influence related decisions. To address these issues, we conducted a U.K.-based study that examined respondents' risk perceptions of GPG, their willingness to embrace mitigation/precautionary behaviors, and reasons for variations in these two factors. We found that GPG is perceived as a moderate-to-high risk, with concerns about the increased likelihood of resource shortages, ecological damage, and violent conflict being foremost. Respondents believed that the worst effects of GPG would arrive around 2050 and would be experienced by the world's poorest people. Respondents who perceived greater levels of risk from GPG were generally those who indicated a greater willingness to embrace mitigation behaviors (e.g., reduce resource consumption) and preventative actions (e.g., support political action to limit growth). We discuss how our findings might be utilized to better manage the potential challenges associated with GPG and we suggest several directions for further research. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Rapid evolution in the wild: changes in body size, life-history traits, and behavior in hunted populations of the Japanese mamushi snake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasaki, Kiyoshi; Fox, Stanley F; Duvall, David

    2009-02-01

    Rapid evolution caused by human exploitation of wildlife is not usually addressed in studies of the impacts of such exploitation despite its direct relevance to population persistence. Japanese mamushi (Gloydius blomhoffii), an endemic venomous snake of the Japanese archipelago, has been heavily hunted by humans, and many populations appear to be declining or are already extirpated. We compared local populations that have been hunted regularly with populations that have not been hunted. Mamushi in hunted populations were smaller, had fewer vertebrae, produced more and smaller offspring, had increased reproductive effort among smaller females, and in nature fled at greater distances from an approaching human and were less defensive than mamushi in unhunted populations, as predicted from life-history theory. Heritability estimates for body size, number of vertebrae, and antipredator behavior were statistically significant, and neonates from hunted sites showed the same distribution of altered characters (compared with those from unhunted sites) as adults. Thus, distribution of the divergent trait between hunted and unhunted sites appeared in part to be genetically based, which suggests rapid evolution to human predation pressures. Trait distributions in hunted populations probably deviate from naturally (as opposed to anthropogenically) selected optima and, therefore, may have long-term negative repercussions on population persistence. Because rapid evolution affects a suite of parameters that characterize exploited populations, accurate understanding of the impacts of exploitation and effective resource management and conservation can only be achieved if evolutionary consequences are considered explicitly.

  7. Development and Environment: An Assessment of Population Growth vis-a-vis Soil Erosion in Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rishikesh Pandey

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the environmental myths and narratives prevailing in Nepal in reference to the population growth and soil erosion. Soil erosion is taken as primary element of environmental degradation by the theory of the Himalayan Environmental Degradation (HED. Many myths and narratives were generated by the vested interest groups to develop the HED. Population growth and over exploitation of natural resource were considered as the prominent causes of soil erosion related environmental degradation. The myths and narratives based on the theory of the HED are still influential in development and environmental policy process in Nepal. In this background this paper highlights some of the research findings that are contrary to conventional belief i.e. population growth lead to soil erosion. The paper is based on literature review. The research evidences from both social and natural sciences are entertained. This paper generates alternative thinking to end the hegemony and unquestionable acceptance of the findings of research undertaken by 'Western, White men' as truth; and their recommendations as the 'blue print' solutions. Critics over orthodox environmentalism and neo-Malthusian accounts are made to validate the ‘hybrid knowledge’ generated in this paper. There are evidences that population pressure have promoted soil erosion. However, Himalayan environmental dynamism which is purely a natural process is far more responsible for soil erosion in the Himalaya. Hence, it is suggested that a critical assessment of any ‘facts’ obtained from research should be made before making them the narratives and reflecting them in policy process. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/dsaj.v7i0.10442 Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology Vol. 7, 2013; 173-196

  8. Identification of Novel Growth Regulators in Plant Populations Expressing Random Peptides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Zhilong; Clancy, Maureen A; Carvalho, Raquel F; Elliott, Kiona; Folta, Kevin M

    2017-10-01

    The use of chemical genomics approaches allows the identification of small molecules that integrate into biological systems, thereby changing discrete processes that influence growth, development, or metabolism. Libraries of chemicals are applied to living systems, and changes in phenotype are observed, potentially leading to the identification of new growth regulators. This work describes an approach that is the nexus of chemical genomics and synthetic biology. Here, each plant in an extensive population synthesizes a unique small peptide arising from a transgene composed of a randomized nucleic acid sequence core flanked by translational start, stop, and cysteine-encoding (for disulfide cyclization) sequences. Ten and 16 amino acid sequences, bearing a core of six and 12 random amino acids, have been synthesized in Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) plants. Populations were screened for phenotypes from the seedling stage through senescence. Dozens of phenotypes were observed in over 2,000 plants analyzed. Ten conspicuous phenotypes were verified through separate transformation and analysis of multiple independent lines. The results indicate that these populations contain sequences that often influence discrete aspects of plant biology. Novel peptides that affect photosynthesis, flowering, and red light response are described. The challenge now is to identify the mechanistic integrations of these peptides into biochemical processes. These populations serve as a new tool to identify small molecules that modulate discrete plant functions that could be produced later in transgenic plants or potentially applied exogenously to impart their effects. These findings could usher in a new generation of agricultural growth regulators, herbicides, or defense compounds. © 2017 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

  9. Beyond birth-weight: early growth and adolescent blood pressure in a Peruvian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robie Sterling

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background. Longitudinal investigations into the origins of adult essential hypertension have found elevated blood pressure in children to accurately track into adulthood, however the direct causes of essential hypertension in adolescence and adulthood remains unclear.Methods. We revisited 152 Peruvian adolescents from a birth cohort tracked from 0 to 30 months of age, and evaluated growth via monthly anthropometric measurements between 1995 and 1998, and obtained anthropometric and blood pressure measurements 11–14 years later. We used multivariable regression models to study the effects of infantile and childhood growth trends on blood pressure and central obesity in early adolescence.Results. In regression models adjusted for interim changes in weight and height, each 0.1 SD increase in weight for length from 0 to 5 months of age, and 1 SD increase from 6 to 30 months of age, was associated with decreased adolescent systolic blood pressure by 1.3 mm Hg (95% CI −2.4 to −0.1 and 2.5 mm Hg (95% CI −4.9 to 0.0, and decreased waist circumference by 0.6 (95% CI −1.1 to 0.0 and 1.2 cm (95% CI −2.3 to −0.1, respectively. Growth in infancy and early childhood was not significantly associated with adolescent waist-to-hip ratio.Conclusions. Rapid compensatory growth in early life has been posited to increase the risk of long-term cardiovascular morbidities such that nutritional interventions may do more harm than good. However, we found increased weight growth during infancy and early childhood to be associated with decreased systolic blood pressure and central adiposity in adolescence.

  10. Do rapid BMI growth in childhood and early-onset obesity offer cardiometabolic protection to obese adults in mid-life?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Howe, Laura D; Zimmermann, Esther; Weiss, Ram

    2014-01-01

    -onset obesity may be associated with MHO. We aimed to assess whether body mass index (BMI) in childhood and early-onset obesity are associated with MHO. SETTING: General population longitudinal cohort study, Denmark. PARTICIPANTS: From 362 200 young men (mean age 20) examined for Danish national service between...... 1943 and 1977, all obese men (BMI ≥31 kg/m(2), N=1930) were identified along with a random 1% sample of the others (N=3601). Our analysis includes 2392 of these men attending a research clinic in mid-life (mean age 42). For 613 of these men, data on childhood BMI are available. We summarised childhood...... that rapid BMI growth in childhood or early-onset obesity was associated with either MHO or the MANW phenotype, for example, among obese men in mid-life, the OR for MHO comparing early-onset obesity with non-early-onset obesity was 0.97 (95% CI 0.85 to 1.10). CONCLUSIONS: We found no robust evidence...

  11. KMCThinFilm: A C++ Framework for the Rapid Development of Lattice Kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) Simulations of Thin Film Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    196–201. 44. Kratzer P. Monte Carlo and kinetic Monte Carlo methods–a tutorial. In: Grotendorst J, Attig N, Blügel S, Marx D, editors. Multiscale...Monte Carlo (kMC) Simulations of Thin Film Growth by James J Ramsey Approved for public release; distribution is...Research Laboratory KMCThinFilm: A C++ Framework for the Rapid Development of Lattice Kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) Simulations of Thin Film Growth by

  12. Linking Crystal Populations to Dynamic States: Crystal Dissolution and Growth During an Open-System Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergantz, G. W.; Schleicher, J.; Burgisser, A.

    2016-12-01

    The identification of shared characteristics in zoned crystals has motivated the definition of crystal populations. These populations reflect the simultaneous transport of crystals, heat and composition during open-system events. An obstacle to interpreting the emergence of a population is the absence of a way to correlate specific dynamic conditions with the characteristic attributes of a population. By combining a boundary-layer diffusion controlled model for crystal growth/dissolution with discrete-element magma dynamics simulations of crystal-bearing magmas, the creation of populations can be simulated. We have implemented a method that decomposes the chemical potential into the thermal and compositional contributions to crystal dissolution/growth. This allows for the explicit treatment of thermal inertia and thermal-compositional decoupling as fluid circulation stirs the system during an open-system event. We have identified three distinct dynamic states producing crystal populations. They are based on the volume fraction of crystals. In a mushy system, thermal and compositional states are tightly linked as the volume involved in the mixing is constrained by the so-called mixing bowl (Bergantz et al., 2015). The mixing bowl volume is a function of the visco-plastic response of the mush and the intrusion width, not by the progressive entrainment of the new intrusion as commonly assumed. Crystal dissolution is the dominate response to input of more primitive magma. At the other endmember, under very dilute conditions, thermal and compositional conditions can become decoupled, and the in-coming magma forms a double-diffusive low-Re jet. This can allow for both dissolution and growth as crystals circulate widely into an increasingly stratified system. A middle range of crystal concentration produces a very complex feedback, as sedimenting crystals form fingers and chains that interact with the incoming magma, break-up the entrainment with chaotic stirring and add

  13. Protected lands, population growth, and women's lives: a proposed agenda for action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelman, R

    1994-01-01

    Possible measures to slow the expansion of population pressures on protected lands and natural systems are wrought with the questions of sexuality, reproductive anatomy, abortion, and behavior. Even the idea of population policy remains a sensitive topic. The most effective population policies appear to be linked to human development generally, i.e., development is the best contraceptive. Widespread access to contraceptives also produces results, as in the case of Bangladesh, where government efforts to boost contraceptive prevalence from 3% to 40% in two decades also resulted in the reduction of total fertility rate from 7 in 1970 to 5.5 in 1991. A new consensus formed on the promotion of family planning and other measures to achieve fertility reduction at the International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo, September 1994, in spite of the remonstrations of the Vatican about abortion. Women's educational levels significantly impact fertility rates, for instance, in Peru a woman with 10 years of education has 2-3 children, whereas an uneducated woman has 7-8 children. In 23 developed countries women with secondary school education typically have their first child 3.5 years later than uneducated women. Such delays in addition to small families and credit extension schemes for women to start small businesses influence fertility and population growth greatly, provided women have access to family planning. The demographer John Bongaarts has calculated that, despite hopeful signs of declining fertility, the projected 2 billion people added to the world's population in the next two decades stem from the population momentum associated with the large numbers in reproductive age. If the average age of first childbirth could be raised 5 years in developing countries, world population in 2100 would be lower by 1.2 billion people than projected. Ultimately, an understanding must be reached about the connection between protected land and people's livelihood by

  14. Growth in Bupalus piniarius (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) in relation to larval population density : 1. The influence of some abiotic factors on growth : 2. The effect of larval density

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gruys, P.

    1970-01-01

    In a field population of Bupalus piniarius in the Netherlands, Klomp (1958a, 1966) found a negative correlation of population density with growth and adult fecundity. The experimental analysis of this relationship in B. piniarius is reported in this paper.

    Part

  15. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, Tanya L.; Lwetoijera, Dickson W.; Knols, Bart G. J.; Takken, Willem; Killeen, Gerry F.; Ferguson, Heather M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

  16. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low-or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

  17. Rapid approach to the quantitative determination of nocturnal ground irradiance in populated territories: a clear-sky case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocifaj, Miroslav; Petržala, Jaromír

    2016-11-01

    A zero-order approach to the solving of the radiative transfer equation and a method for obtaining the horizontal diffuse irradiance at night-time are both developed and intended for wide use in numerical predictions of nocturnal ground irradiance in populated territories. Downward diffuse radiative fluxes are computed with a two-stream approximation, and the data products obtained are useful for scientists who require rapid estimations of illumination levels during the night. The rapid technique presented here is especially important when the entire set of calculations is to be repeated for different lighting technologies and/or radiant intensity distributions with the aim of identifying high-level illuminance/irradiance, the spectral composition of scattered light or other optical properties of diffuse light at the ground level. The model allows for the computation of diffuse horizontal irradiance due to light emissions from ground-based sources with arbitrary spectral compositions. The optical response of a night sky is investigated using the ratio of downward to upward irradiance, R⊥, λ(0). We show that R⊥, λ(0) generally peaks at short wavelengths, thus suggesting that, e.g., the blue light of an LED lamp would make the sky even more bluish. However, this effect can be largely suppressed or even removed with the spectral sensitivity function of the average human eye superimposed on to the lamp spectrum. Basically, blue light scattering dominates at short optical distances, while red light is transmitted for longer distances and illuminates distant places. Computations are performed for unshielded as well as fully shielded lights, while the spectral function R⊥, λ(0) is tabulated to make possible the modelling of various artificial lights, including those not presented here.

  18. Optimal resting-growth strategies of microbial populations in fluctuating environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nico Geisel

    Full Text Available Bacteria spend most of their lifetime in non-growing states which allow them to survive extended periods of stress and starvation. When environments improve, they must quickly resume growth to maximize their share of limited nutrients. Cells with higher stress resistance often survive longer stress durations at the cost of needing more time to resume growth, a strong disadvantage in competitive environments. Here we analyze the basis of optimal strategies that microorganisms can use to cope with this tradeoff. We explicitly show that the prototypical inverse relation between stress resistance and growth rate can explain much of the different types of behavior observed in stressed microbial populations. Using analytical mathematical methods, we determine the environmental parameters that decide whether cells should remain vegetative upon stress exposure, downregulate their metabolism to an intermediate optimum level, or become dormant. We find that cell-cell variability, or intercellular noise, is consistently beneficial in the presence of extreme environmental fluctuations, and that it provides an efficient population-level mechanism for adaption in a deteriorating environment. Our results reveal key novel aspects of responsive phenotype switching and its role as an adaptive strategy in changing environments.

  19. Warming, soil moisture, and loss of snow increase Bromus tectorum’s population growth rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aldo Compagnoni

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Climate change threatens to exacerbate the impacts of invasive species. In temperate ecosystems, direct effects of warming may be compounded by dramatic reductions in winter snow cover. Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum is arguably the most destructive biological invader in basins of the North American Intermountain West, and warming could increase its performance through direct effects on demographic rates or through indirect effects mediated by loss of snow. We conducted a two-year experimental manipulation of temperature and snow pack to test whether 1 warming increases cheatgrass population growth rate and 2 reduced snow cover contributes to cheatgrass’ positive response to warming. We used infrared heaters operating continuously to create the warming treatment, but turned heaters on only during snowfalls for the snowmelt treatment. We monitored cheatgrass population growth rate and the vital rates that determine it: emergence, survival and fecundity. Growth rate increased in both warming and snowmelt treatments. The largest increases occurred in warming plots during the wettest year, indicating that the magnitude of response to warming depends on moisture availability. Warming increased both fecundity and survival, especially in the wet year, while snowmelt contributed to the positive effects of warming by increasing survival. Our results indicate that increasing temperature will exacerbate cheatgrass impacts, especially where warming causes large reductions in the depth and duration of snow cover.

  20. Implications of density-dependent population growth for frequency and density-dependent selection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smouse, P.E.

    1976-01-01

    The relationship between density-dependent population growth and frequency- and density-dependent selection was investigated. For the haploid asexual case, Malthusian growth leads to constant birth and death rates and constant fitness values. A more general Lotka-Volterrra formulation leads to both density- and frequency-dependent selection. The more general formulation is necessary but not sufficient for polymorphic coexistence in asexual forms. For the diploid sexual case, Malthusian growth leads to frequency-dependent population trajectories, but the basic birth and death rates are constant. A density-dependent model, analogous to the Lotka-Volterra model of the asexual case, leads to both frequency- and density-dependent fitness values and selection differentials. If selective differentials are solely reproductive in origin, whether density dependent or independent, Hardy-Weinberg frequencies characterize the polymorphic equilibrium, when it exists. This is not the case when selection differentials involve survival components, whether density dependent or independent. It is shown that heterosis is not necessary to achieve stable polymorphism and that the polymorphic condition can be maintained by certain types of intergenotypic competition as well.

  1. Crowded growth leads to the spontaneous evolution of semistable coexistence in laboratory yeast populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frenkel, Evgeni M; McDonald, Michael J; Van Dyken, J David; Kosheleva, Katya; Lang, Gregory I; Desai, Michael M

    2015-09-08

    Identifying the mechanisms that create and maintain biodiversity is a central challenge in biology. Stable diversification of microbial populations often requires the evolution of differences in resource utilization. Alternatively, coexistence can be maintained by specialization to exploit spatial heterogeneity in the environment. Here, we report spontaneous diversification maintained by a related but distinct mechanism: crowding avoidance. During experimental evolution of laboratory Saccharomyces cerevisiae populations, we observed the repeated appearance of "adherent" (A) lineages able to grow as a dispersed film, in contrast to their crowded "bottom-dweller" (B) ancestors. These two types stably coexist because dispersal reduces interference competition for nutrients among kin, at the cost of a slower maximum growth rate. This tradeoff causes the frequencies of the two types to oscillate around equilibrium over the course of repeated cycles of growth, crowding, and dispersal. However, further coevolution of the A and B types can perturb and eventually destroy their coexistence over longer time scales. We introduce a simple mathematical model of this "semistable" coexistence, which explains the interplay between ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Because crowded growth generally limits nutrient access in biofilms, the mechanism we report here may be broadly important in maintaining diversity in these natural environments.

  2. Comparative proteomic analysis of egg white proteins during the rapid embryonic growth period by combinatorial peptide ligand libraries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yijun; Qiu, Ning; Ma, Meihu

    2015-10-01

    Egg white proteins provide essential nutrients and antimicrobial protection during embryonic development. Although various biological functions of major egg white proteins have been investigated via embryogenesis, understanding of global changes in low-abundance proteins has been limited. In the current study, a proteomic analysis of low-abundance egg white proteins was conducted using combinatorial peptide ligand libraries (CPLL), two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2-DE), and matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization-time-of-flight with two mass analyzers for tandem mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS/MS) during the rapid embryonic growth period. Significant increases in the relative abundance of 88 protein spots (P ≤ 0.05), of which 47 spots were found to correspond to 10 proteins from 8 protein families were identified over 16 d incubation. During this developmental process, the protein concentration increased and the amount of albumin solid material decreased in the residual egg white. Clusterin precursors were observed over a wide range of pH values and the tenp protein increased continuously during embryonic development. Low-abundance proteins were identified in a comparison of optimal incubation conditions to the altered conditions of 2 control groups to better understand the function of these proteins in egg whites. Collectively, these findings provide insight into the supportive role of the egg white during embryonic development, enabling a broader understanding of chick embryogenesis. © 2015 Poultry Science Association Inc.

  3. The rapid growth of a pleomorphic adenoma of the parotid gland in the third trimester of pregnancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Upile Tahwinder

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction We report a case highlighting the multidisciplinary management of a giant pleomorphic adenoma of the parotid gland that showed rapid growth in the third trimester of pregnancy. Case presentation A 43-year-old Caucasian woman presented in her 32nd week of gestation with a tumor of the parotid gland. Ultrasonography of her neck showed a parotid lesion of 40 × 30 × 27.5 mm. A follow-up magnetic resonance imaging scan of the neck four weeks later revealed that the tumor had grown to 70 × 60 × 60 mm, reaching the parapharyngeal space with marked obstruction of the oropharynx of about 50%. After discussing the case with our multidisciplinary tumor board and the gynecologists it was decided to deliver the baby by caesarean section in the 38th week of gestation, and then to perform a surgical resection of the tumor. Conclusion Indications for early surgical intervention of similar cases should be discussed on an individual patient basis in a multidisciplinary setting.

  4. Rapid growth of black holes accompanied with hot or warm outflows exposed to anisotropic super-Eddington radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeo, Eishun; Inayoshi, Kohei; Ohsuga, Ken; Takahashi, Hiroyuki R.; Mineshige, Shin

    2018-02-01

    We perform two-dimensional radiation hydrodynamical simulations of accretion flows onto a black hole (BH) with a mass of 10^3≤M_BH/M_⊙ ⪉ 10^6 in order to study rapid growth of BHs in the early Universe. For spherically symmetric flows, hyper-Eddington accretion from outside the Bondi radius can occur unimpeded by radiation feedback when M_BH ≳ 10^4 M_⊙ (n_∞/10^5 cm^{-3})^{-1}(T_∞/10^4 K)^{3/2}, where the density and temperature of ambient gas are initially set to n∞ = 105 cm-3 and T∞ = 104 K. Here, we study accretion flows exposed to anisotropic radiation from a nuclear accretion disk with a luminosity higher than the Eddington value (LEdd) due to collimation towards the bipolar directions. We find that, unlike the spherically symmetric case, even less massive BHs with MBH radiating region due to the non-radial gas motions. Because of efficient recombination by hydrogen, the entire flow settles in neutral and warm gas with T ≃ 8000 K. The BH is fed at a rate of ˜5 × 104 LEdd/c2 (a half of the inflow rate from the Bondi radius). Moreover, radiation momentum absorbed by neutral hydrogen produces warm outflows towards the bipolar directions at ˜10 % of the BH feeding rate and with a velocity several times higher than the escaping value.

  5. Endless urban growth? On the mismatch of population, household and urban land area growth and its effects on the urban debate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, Dagmar; Kabisch, Nadja; Haase, Annegret

    2013-01-01

    In European cities, the rate of population growth has declined significantly, while the number of households has increased. This increase in the number of households is associated with an increase in space for housing. To date, the effects of both a declining population and decreasing household numbers remain unclear. In this paper, we analyse the relationship between population and household number development in 188 European cities from 1990-2000 and 2000-2006 to the growth of urban land area and per capita living space. Our results support a trend toward decreasing population with simultaneously increasing household number. However, we also found cites facing both a declining population and a decreasing household number. Nevertheless, the urban land area of these "double-declining" cities has continued to spread because the increasing per capita living space counteracts a reduction in land consumption. We conclude that neither a decline in population nor in household number "automatically" solve the global problem of land consumption.

  6. Endogenous Population Dynamics and Economic Growth with Free Trade between Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper builds a model to deal with dynamic interdependence between different countries' birth rates, mortality rates, populations, wealth accumulation, and time distributions between working, leisure and children caring. The model shows the role of human capital, technological and preference changes on national differences in birth rates, mortality rates, time distributions, population change, and wealth accumulation. The economic mechanisms of wealth accumulation, production and trade are based the Solow growth model and the Oniki-Uzawa trade model. We use the utility function proposed by Zhang to describe the behavior of households. We model national and gender differences in human capital, propensity to have children, propensity to use leisure time, and children caring efficiency. We describe the dynamics of global economic growth, trade patterns, national differences in wealth, income, birth rates, mortality rates, and populations with differential equations. We simulate the model to show the motion of the system and identify the existence of equilibrium point. We also examine the effects of changes in the propensity to have children, the propensity to save, woman's propensity to use leisure, woman's human capital, and woman's emotional involvement in children caring on the dynamics of the global and national economies.

  7. THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EVOLUTION REGARDING THE POPULATION GROWTH IN THE LAND OF SEVERIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioana-Cristiana VÎLCEA

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The causes which influenced the population growth in the Land of Severin are consistent with demographic processes, which happened at the national level, but also with the local influences driven by some geographical features, such as the geographical position of settlements compared to possible polarization centers which have a significant socio-economic attraction and which at a given moment had an impact over the potential demographic causing certain changes. To these causes we can also add other issues such as the insufficient material resources, poor hygiene, the lack of medical infrastructure or poor equipment of hospitals. Of particular importance for the evolution of population growth are also other social causes such as the presence of diseases (syphilis, plague and cholera which decimated the population in the region during the period 1830-1913 or Balkan Endemic Nephropathy, a disease characteristic to this region, abortions practiced in poor conditions of hygiene, especially during the communist period when these kind of actions were forbidden.

  8. The world energy production, consumption and productivity in the energy sector, population and the per capita growth: Regression analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Josheski, Dushko; Lazarov, Darko; Koteski, Cane; Sovreski, Zlatko

    2011-01-01

    In this paper was investigated the relationship between GDP per capita growth and Log of energy production, energy consumption per capita, the log of productivity in energy sector and population. Data covered sample for 220 countries and world regions, years covered from 1980 to 2002.The results showed that if energy consumption increases by 1% GDP per capita growth will decline by 0,57%, if energy production will rise by 1% growth will rise by 1,51%, if population rise by 1% growth will decl...

  9. Density regulation in Northeast Atlantic fish populations: Density dependence is stronger in recruitment than in somatic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, Fabian; Ricard, Daniel; Heino, Mikko

    2018-01-30

    Population regulation is a central concept in ecology, yet in many cases its presence and the underlying mechanisms are difficult to demonstrate. The current paradigm maintains that marine fish populations are predominantly regulated by density-dependent recruitment. While it is known that density-dependent somatic growth can be present too, its general importance remains unknown and most practical applications neglect it. This study aimed to close this gap by for the first time quantifying and comparing density dependence in growth and recruitment over a large set of fish populations. We fitted density-dependent models to time-series data on population size, recruitment and age-specific weight from commercially exploited fish populations in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the Baltic Sea. Data were standardized to enable a direct comparison within and among populations, and estimated parameters were used to quantify the impact of density regulation on population biomass. Statistically significant density dependence in recruitment was detected in a large proportion of populations (70%), whereas for density dependence in somatic growth the prevalence of density dependence depended heavily on the method (26% and 69%). Despite age-dependent variability, the density dependence in recruitment was consistently stronger among age groups and between alternative approaches that use weight-at-age or weight increments to assess growth. Estimates of density-dependent reduction in biomass underlined these results: 97% of populations with statistically significant parameters for growth and recruitment showed a larger impact of density-dependent recruitment on population biomass. The results reaffirm the importance of density-dependent recruitment in marine fishes, yet they also show that density dependence in somatic growth is not uncommon. Furthermore, the results are important from an applied perspective because density dependence in somatic growth affects productivity and

  10. The growth and population dynamics of seagrass Thalassia hemprichii in Suli Waters, Ambon Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tupan, C. I.; Uneputty, Pr A.

    2017-10-01

    The objectives of the research were to determined growth of rhizome, age structure, recruitment rate, and mortality rate of Thalassia hemprichii. Data were collected by using reconstruction technique which the measurements were based on past growth history. The age of seagrass was based on plastochrone interval. The recruitment rate was estimated by age structure of living shoots while mortality rate was estimated by age structure of dead shoots. The research was conducted on coastal waters of Suli where divided into two stations with different substrates, namely mixed substrates of sand and mud (S1) and mixed substrates of sand and coral fragment (S2). The growth rate of horizontal rhizome ranged from 4.15-8.68 cm.year-1 whereas the growth rate of vertical rhizome was 1.11-1.16 cm.year-1. The average age of T. hemprichii varied between 3.22-4.15 years. The youngest shoots were found at age 0.38 years and the oldest shoots were 7.82 years. Distribution of age was polymodal which reflecting cohort. The recruitment rate ranged from 0.23-0.54 year-1. Otherwise, the mortality rate ranged from 0.21-0.26 year-1.Seagrass population of T. hemprichii in Suli Waters indicated an increasing condition which shown by higher recruitment rate than mortality rate.

  11. Long-term growth of Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) in a southern Nevada population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medica, P.A.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Saethre, Mary B.

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of growth rates, age at maturity, and longevity are important aspects of a species life history and are directly applicable to life table creation and population viability analyses. We measured the growth of a cohort of 17 semi-wild Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) located in Rock Valley, Nevada over a 47-yr period beginning in 1963. The tortoises were initially marked as hatchling and juvenile animals between the years 1963 and 1965 and ranged in size from 47 to 77 mm in plastron length. We assigned ages of 1-4 yr to the tortoises at initial capture based on their body size. These tortoises were recaptured, measured, and weighed approximately annually since their initial capture. Growth of male and female tortoises did not differ significantly until animals reached the age of 23-25 yr. Annual tortoise growth was correlated with the production of ephemeral vegetation, while accounting for size, sex, and repeated measurements of the animals as well as the interval between measurements. However, the production of ephemeral plants was likewise highly correlated (non-linearly) with winter rainfall. Stochastic predation events between 2003 and 2007 decimated this cohort of tortoises. The average age of the long-term surviving tortoises from this cohort was 43 yr with a range of 39-47 yr. Twelve of the tortoises survived to the age of 39 yr and 11 of the 12 reached 40 yr.

  12. BREATHING FIRE: HOW STELLAR FEEDBACK DRIVES RADIAL MIGRATION, RAPID SIZE FLUCTUATIONS, AND POPULATION GRADIENTS IN LOW-MASS GALAXIES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El-Badry, Kareem; Geha, Marla [Department of Astronomy, Yale University, New Haven, CT (United States); Wetzel, Andrew; Hopkins, Philip F. [TAPIR, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA USA (United States); Kereš, Dusan; Chan, T. K. [Department of Physics, Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla (United States); Faucher-Giguère, Claude-André, E-mail: kareem.el-badry@yale.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy and CIERA, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL (United States)

    2016-04-01

    We examine the effects of stellar feedback and bursty star formation on low-mass galaxies (M{sub star} = 2 × 10{sup 6} − 5 × 10{sup 10} M{sub ⊙}) using the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) simulations. While previous studies emphasized the impact of feedback on dark matter profiles, we investigate the impact on the stellar component: kinematics, radial migration, size evolution, and population gradients. Feedback-driven outflows/inflows drive significant radial stellar migration over both short and long timescales via two processes: (1) outflowing/infalling gas can remain star-forming, producing young stars that migrate ∼1 kpc within their first 100 Myr, and (2) gas outflows/inflows drive strong fluctuations in the global potential, transferring energy to all stars. These processes produce several dramatic effects. First, galaxies’ effective radii can fluctuate by factors of >2 over ∼200 Myr, and these rapid size fluctuations can account for much of the observed scatter in the radius at fixed M{sub star}. Second, the cumulative effects of many outflow/infall episodes steadily heat stellar orbits, causing old stars to migrate outward most strongly. This age-dependent radial migration mixes—and even inverts—intrinsic age and metallicity gradients. Thus, the galactic-archaeology approach of calculating radial star formation histories from stellar populations at z = 0 can be severely biased. These effects are strongest at M{sub star} ≈ 10{sup 7–9.6} M{sub ⊙}, the same regime where feedback most efficiently cores galaxies. Thus, detailed measurements of stellar kinematics in low-mass galaxies can strongly constrain feedback models and test baryonic solutions to small-scale problems in ΛCDM.

  13. Prevalence of Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Mutations in Patients with Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer in Turkish Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güler Tezel, Gaye; Şener, Ebru; Aydın, Çisel; Önder, Sevgen

    2017-12-01

    Epidermal growth factor receptor mutation analysis in non-small cell lung cancer is important for selecting patients who will receive treatment with tyrosine kinase inhibitors. In this study, we aimed to investigate the prevalence of epidermal growth factor receptor mutations and mutation patterns in the Turkish population. We retrospectively reviewed molecular pathology reports of 959 cases with lung cancer analysed for epidermal growth factor receptor mutations. We analysed all four epidermal growth factor receptor exon mutations using a real-time polymerase chain reaction platform. In this study, the epidermal growth factor receptor mutation rate in the Turkish population was 16.7% (160 of 959). The epidermal growth factor receptor mutation frequency was significantly higher in women (37.1%, n=96) than in men (9.1%, n=64) (pmutation rate was higher in the adenocarcinoma histologic type (pmutations were older than those without mutations (p=0.003). The most frequent mutations were exon 19 deletions (48.8%, 78/160) and exon 21 L858R point mutations (38.1.1%, 61/160). We also detected compound mutation patterns in three cases (1.9%). The prevalence of epidermal growth factor receptor mutations in the Turkish population was slightly higher than that in the Caucasian population and lower than that in the East Asian population. The results of this study may provide guidance in personalized therapy of non-small cell lung cancer in the Turkish population.

  14. Fetal growth trajectory and risk for eczema in a Saudi population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    AlMakoshi, Amel; Ellahi, Awaiss; Sallout, Bala; Devereux, Graham; Turner, Steve

    2015-12-01

    Recent studies in Western cohorts have identified associations between increasing fetal abdominal circumference (AC) during mid-pregnancy and increased risk for eczema and atopy. We sought to replicate these findings in a Saudi population where antenatal environmental exposures are different compared with Western countries. A Saudi birth cohort was recruited to relate maternal dietary intake and fetal growth to wheeze, eczema, and rhinitis in the first 2 yrs. Fetal size was determined from routine ultrasound scan measurements in the second and third trimesters and birthweight was noted. Parent-reported outcomes during the first 2 yrs were acquired by telephone-administered questionnaire. There were 1076 mothers recruited. AC was determined in 562 for the second, in 632 for the third, and in 281 for both second and third trimesters. A history of eczema was determined in 814 children at 2 yrs of age. There was an inverse relationship between change in abdominal circumference between the second and third trimesters for eczema (OR 0.66 per z score increase in AC [95% CI 0.49, 0.89]), and the quartile with the greatest faltering growth were at increased risk compared with other groups (p ≤ 0.045). Change in fetal size between the third trimester and birth was not associated with altered eczema risk. There were no associations between fetal growth and wheeze at the age of 2 yrs. Our findings contrast observations made in Western populations but nonetheless suggest that factors associated with changing fetal growth trajectory in the second half of pregnancy are also relevant to atopy development on the global setting. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Insulin-like growth factor I and anthropometric parameters in a Danish population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friedrich, N; Jørgensen, Torben; Juul, A

    2012-01-01

    During the last decade several studies indicated that low insulin-like growth factor (IGF) I levels are related to higher risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. Obesity represents one further main cardiovascular risk factor which might also be related to IGF-I. The objective of the present...... study was to analyse the associations between anthropometric measures and IGF-I levels in a population-based sample. From the Danish cross-sectional Health2006 study 3,328 subjects (1,835 women; 1,493 men) aged 19-72 years were included in the analyses. Serum IGF-I levels were determined...

  16. Transforming growth factor-β signaling is constantly shaping memory T-cell population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Chaoyu; Zhang, Nu

    2015-09-01

    The long-term maintenance of memory T cells is essential for successful vaccines. Both the quantity and the quality of the memory T-cell population must be maintained. The signals that control the maintenance of memory T cells remain incompletely identified. Here we used two genetic models to show that continuous transforming growth factor-β signaling to antigen-specific T cells is required for the differentiation and maintenance of memory CD8(+) T cells. In addition, both infection-induced and microbiota-induced inflammation impact the phenotypic and functional identity of memory CD8(+) T cells.

  17. Post-term growth and cognitive development at 5 years of age in preterm children: Evidence from a prospective population-based cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Laure; Nusinovici, Simon; Flamant, Cyril; Cariou, Bertrand; Rouger, Valérie; Gascoin, Géraldine; Darmaun, Dominique; Rozé, Jean-Christophe; Hanf, Matthieu

    2017-01-01

    While the effects of growth from birth to expected term on the subsequent development of preterm children has attracted plentiful attention, less is known about the effects of post-term growth. We aimed to delineate distinct patterns of post-term growth and to determine their association with the cognitive development of preterm children. Data from a prospective population-based cohort of 3,850 surviving infants born at less than 35 weeks of gestational age were used. Growth was assessed as the Body Mass Index (BMI) Z-scores at 3, 9, 18, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months. Cognitive development at five years of age was evaluated by the Global School Adaptation score (GSA). Latent class analysis was implemented to identify distinct growth patterns and logistic regressions based on propensity matching were used to evaluate the relationship between identified growth trajectories and cognitive development. Four patterns of post-term growth were identified: a normal group with a Z-score consistently around zero during childhood (n = 2,469; 64%); a group with an early rapid rise in the BMI Z-score, but only up to 2 years of age (n = 195; 5%); a group with a slow yet steady rise in the BMI Z-score during childhood (n = 510; 13%); and a group with a negative Z-score growth until 3 years of age (n = 676; 18%). The group with a slow yet steady rise in the BMI Z-score was significantly associated with low GSA scores. Our findings indicate heterogeneous post-term growth of preterm children, with potential for association with their cognitive development.

  18. Local environment and density-dependent feedbacks determine population growth in a forest herb

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahlgren, Johan Petter; Östergård, Hannah; Ehrlén, Johan

    2014-01-01

    Linking spatial variation in environmental factors to variation in demographic rates is essential for a mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of populations. However, we still know relatively little about such links, partly because feedbacks via intraspecific density make them difficult...... to observe in natural populations. We conducted a detailed field study and investigated simultaneous effects of environmental factors and the intraspecific density of individuals on the demography of the herb Lathyrus vernus. In regression models of vital rates we identified effects associated with spring...... shade on survival and growth, while density was negatively correlated with these vital rates. Density was also negatively correlated with average individual size in the study plots, which is consistent with self-thinning. In addition, average plant sizes were larger than predicted by density in plots...

  19. Climate change and population growth in Timor Leste: implications for food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molyneux, Nicholas; da Cruz, Gil Rangel; Williams, Robert L; Andersen, Rebecca; Turner, Neil C

    2012-12-01

    The climate in Timor Leste (East Timor) is predicted to become about 1.5 °C warmer and about 10 % wetter on average by 2050. By the same year, the population is expected to triple from 1 to 2.5-3 million. This article maps the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall and reviews the implications of climate change and population growth on agricultural systems. Improved cultivars of maize, rice, cassava, sweet potato and peanuts with high yield performance have been introduced, but these will need to be augmented in the future with better adapted cultivars and new crops, such as food and fodder legumes and new management practices. The requirements for fertilizers to boost yields and terracing and/or contour hedgerows to prevent soil erosion of steeply sloping terrain are discussed. Contour hedges can also be used for fodder for improved animal production to provide protein to reduce malnutrition.

  20. Population growth and development in the Third World: the neocolonial context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, J G; Shrestha, N R

    1988-01-01

    Less developed countries (LDCs) that were colonies of other nations continued operating under the same social and political structures set up by the former ruling nations. The small minority of elites in the LDCs held on to the power acquired during colonial times. In order to preserve their political and financial status after independence, they maintained their close linkages to the capitalist nations and their multinational corporations (MNCs). The elites did not generally have popular support, however. These capitalist nations and their commercial interests continue to dictate most LDCs development process which supports the financial interests of the MNCs and the local elites and not those of the majority, the poor. The poor realize that they are trapped and unable to break away from the economic and political structures, therefore, to assure some form of security, they have many children which exacerbates their poverty. Yet population control policies based on Malthusian theory and those that rely on such undimensional, technical approaches as family planning alone cannot cure the multidimensional social problems of high population growth and poverty. Neither the Malthusian nor Marxist theories totally explain the situation in the LDCs or even provide workable solutions. Research on population and development in LDCs needs to address both the Malthusian concern for the problems posed by high growth rates and the Marxist critique of class struggle in development trends. To eliminate the trap of poverty and dependent economies, each country must design its own remedies based on its history, culture, and geography and alter the prevailing social, economic, and political power structures in favor of the poor. 6 propositions that must be modified to each nation's particular problems and needs are presented to guide LDCs in formulating or reformulating policies to alleviate the problems of population and poverty.