Antarctic sea ice losses drive gains in benthic carbon drawdown.

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, D K A

2015-09-21

Climate forcing of sea-ice losses from the Arctic and West Antarctic are blueing the poles. These losses are accelerating, reducing Earth's albedo and increasing heat absorption. Subarctic forest (area expansion and increased growth) and ice-shelf losses (resulting in new phytoplankton blooms which are eaten by benthos) are the only significant described negative feedbacks acting to counteract the effects of increasing CO2 on a warming planet, together accounting for uptake of ∼10(7) tonnes of carbon per year. Most sea-ice loss to date has occurred over polar continental shelves, which are richly, but patchily, colonised by benthic animals. Most polar benthos feeds on microscopic algae (phytoplankton), which has shown increased blooms coincident with sea-ice losses. Here, growth responses of Antarctic shelf benthos to sea-ice losses and phytoplankton increases were investigated. Analysis of two decades of benthic collections showed strong increases in annual production of shelf seabed carbon in West Antarctic bryozoans. These were calculated to have nearly doubled to >2x10(5) tonnes of carbon per year since the 1980s. Annual production of bryozoans is median within wider Antarctic benthos, so upscaling to include other benthos (combined study species typically constitute ∼3% benthic biomass) suggests an increased drawdown of ∼2.9x10(6) tonnes of carbon per year. This drawdown could become sequestration because polar continental shelves are typically deeper than most modern iceberg scouring, bacterial breakdown rates are slow, and benthos is easily buried. To date, most sea-ice losses have been Arctic, so, if hyperboreal benthos shows a similar increase in drawdown, polar continental shelves would represent Earth's largest negative feedback to climate change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rapid Access Ice Drill: A New Tool for Exploration of the Deep Antarctic Ice Sheets and Subglacial Geology

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Goodge, J. W.; Severinghaus, J. P.

2014-12-01

The Rapid Access Ice Drill (RAID) will penetrate the Antarctic ice sheets in order to core through deep ice, the glacial bed, and into bedrock below. This new technology will provide a critical first look at the interface between major ice caps and their subglacial geology. Currently in construction, RAID is a mobile drilling system capable of making several long boreholes in a single field season in Antarctica. RAID is interdisciplinary and will allow access to polar paleoclimate records in ice >1 Ma, direct observation at the base of the ice sheets, and recovery of rock cores from the ice-covered East Antarctic craton. RAID uses a diamond rock-coring system as in mineral exploration. Threaded drill-pipe with hardened metal bits will cut through ice using reverse circulation of Estisol for pressure-compensation, maintenance of temperature, and removal of ice cuttings. Near the bottom of the ice sheet, a wireline bottom-hole assembly will enable diamond coring of ice, the glacial bed, and bedrock below. Once complete, boreholes will be kept open with fluid, capped, and made available for future down-hole measurement of thermal gradient, heat flow, ice chronology, and ice deformation. RAID will also sample for extremophile microorganisms. RAID is designed to penetrate up to 3,300 meters of ice and take sample cores in less than 200 hours. This rapid performance will allow completion of a borehole in about 10 days before moving to the next drilling site. RAID is unique because it can provide fast borehole access through thick ice; take short ice cores for paleoclimate study; sample the glacial bed to determine ice-flow conditions; take cores of subglacial bedrock for age dating and crustal history; and create boreholes for use as an observatory in the ice sheets. Together, the rapid drilling capability and mobility of the drilling system, along with ice-penetrating imaging methods, will provide a unique 3D picture of the interior Antarctic ice sheets.

How robust is the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in isolation?

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Kushner, P. J.; Hay, S. E.; Blackport, R.; McCusker, K. E.; Oudar, T.

2017-12-01

It is now apparent that active dynamical coupling between the ocean and atmosphere determines a good deal of how Arctic sea-ice loss changes the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In coupled ocean-atmosphere models, Arctic sea-ice loss indirectly induces a 'mini' global warming and circulation changes that extend into the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Ocean-atmosphere coupling also amplifies by about 50% Arctic free-tropospheric warming arising from sea-ice loss (Deser et al. 2015, 2016). The mechanisms at work and how to separate the response to sea-ice loss from the rest of the global warming process remain poorly understood. Different studies have used distinctive numerical approaches and coupled ocean-atmosphere models to address this problem. We put these studies on comparable footing using pattern scaling (Blackport and Kushner 2017) to separately estimate the part of the circulation response that scales with sea-ice loss in the absence of low-latitude warming from the part that scales with low-latitude warming in the absence of sea-ice loss. We consider well-sampled simulations from three different coupled ocean-atmosphere models (CESM1, CanESM2, CNRM-CM5), in which greenhouse warming and sea-ice loss are driven in different ways (sea ice albedo reduction/transient RCP8.5 forcing for CESM1, nudged sea ice/CO2 doubling for CanESM2, heat-flux forcing/constant RCP8.5-derived forcing for CNRM-CM5). Across these different simulations, surprisingly robust influences of Arctic sea-ice loss on atmospheric circulation can be diagnosed using pattern scaling. For boreal winter, the isolated sea-ice loss effect acts to increase warming in the North American Sub-Arctic, decrease warming of the Eurasian continent, enhance precipitation over the west coast of North America, and strengthen the Aleutian Low and the Siberian High. We will also discuss how Arctic free tropospheric warming might be enhanced via midlatitude ocean surface warming induced by sea-ice loss

Study suggests Arctic sea ice loss not irreversible

Science.gov (United States)

Balcerak, Ernie

2011-10-01

The Arctic has been losing sea ice as Earth's climate warms, and some studies have suggested that the Arctic could reach a tipping point, beyond which ice would not recover even if global temperatures cooled down again. However, a new study by Armour et al. that uses a state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean global climate model found no evidence of such irreversibility. In their simulations, the researchers increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels until Arctic sea ice disappeared year-round and then watched what happened as global temperatures were then decreased. They found that sea ice steadily recovered as global temperatures dropped. An implication of this result is that future sea ice loss will occur only as long as global temperatures continue to rise. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2011GL048739, 2011)

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss.

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Wilson, Ryan R; Regehr, Eric V; Rode, Karyn D; St Martin, Michelle

2016-08-17

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears. © 2016 The Author(s).

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; Rode, Karyn D.; St Martin, Michelle

2016-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears.

How Will Sea Ice Loss Affect the Greenland Ice Sheet? On the Puzzling Features of Greenland Ice-Core Isotopic Composition

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Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Legrande, Allegra N.; Roberts, William H. G.

2016-01-01

The modern cryosphere, Earth's frozen water regime, is in fast transition. Greenland ice cores show how fast theses changes can be, presenting evidence of up to 15 C warming events over timescales of less than a decade. These events, called Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events, are believed to be associated with rapid changes in Arctic sea ice, although the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. The modern demise of Arctic sea ice may, in turn, instigate abrupt changes on the Greenland Ice Sheet. The Arctic Sea Ice and Greenland Ice Sheet Sensitivity (Ice2Ice Chttps://ice2ice.b.uib.noD) initiative, sponsored by the European Research Council, seeks to quantify these past rapid changes to improve our understanding of what the future may hold for the Arctic. Twenty scientists gathered in Copenhagen as part of this initiative to discuss the most recent observational, technological, and model developments toward quantifying the mechanisms behind past climate changes in Greenland. Much of the discussion focused on the causes behind the changes in stable water isotopes recorded in ice cores. The participants discussed sources of variability for stable water isotopes and framed ways that new studies could improve understanding of modern climate. The participants also discussed how climate models could provide insights into the relative roles of local and nonlocal processes in affecting stable water isotopes within the Greenland Ice Sheet. Presentations of modeling results showed how a change in the source or seasonality of precipitation could occur not only between glacial and modern climates but also between abrupt events. Recent fieldwork campaigns illustrate an important role of stable isotopes in atmospheric vapor and diffusion in the final stable isotope signal in ice. Further, indications from recent fieldwork campaigns illustrate an important role of stable isotopes in atmospheric vapor and diffusion in the final stable isotope signal in ice. This feature complicates

Remarkable separability of the circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing

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McCusker, K. E.; Kushner, P. J.; Fyfe, J. C.; Sigmond, M.; Kharin, V. V.; Bitz, C. M.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice loss has an important effect on local climate through increases in ocean to atmosphere heat flux and associated feedbacks, and may influence midlatitude climate by changing large-scale circulation that can enhance or counter changes that are due to greenhouse gases. The extent to which climate change in a warming world can be understood as greenhouse gas-induced changes that are modulated by Arctic sea ice loss depends on how additive the responses to the separate influences are. Here we use a novel sea ice nudging methodology in the Canadian Earth System Model, which has a fully coupled ocean, to isolate the effects of Arctic sea ice loss and doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) to determine their additivity and sensitivity to mean state. We find that the separate effects of Arctic sea ice loss and doubled CO2 are remarkably additive and relatively insensitive to mean climate state. This separability is evident in several thermodynamic and dynamic fields throughout most of the year, from hemispheric to synoptic scales. The extent to which the regional response to sea ice loss sometimes agrees with and sometimes cancels the response to CO2 is quantified. In this model, Arctic sea ice loss enhances the CO2-induced surface air temperature changes nearly everywhere and zonal wind changes over the Pacific sector, whereas sea ice loss counters CO2-induced sea level pressure changes nearly everywhere over land and zonal wind changes over the Atlantic sector. This separability of the response to Arctic sea ice loss from the response to CO2 doubling gives credence to the body of work in which Arctic sea ice loss is isolated from the forcing that modified it, and might provide a means to better interpret the diverse array of modeling and observational studies of Arctic change and influence.

Mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet since the Little Ice Age, implications on sea level

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjeldsen, K. K.; Bjork, A. A.; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas

The impact of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) on 20th Century sea level rise (SLR) has long been subject to intense discussions. While globally distributed tide gauges suggest a global mean SLR of 15-20 cm, quantifying the separate components is of great concern - in particular...... for modeling sea level projections into the 21st Century. Estimates of the past GrIS contribution to SLR have been derived using a number of different approaches, e.g. surface mass balance (SMB) calculations combined with estimates of ice discharge found by in correlating SMB anomalies and calving rates. Here......-2010, NASA's Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) from 2003-2009, and NASA's Land, Vegetation, and Ice Sensor (LVIS) from 2010, to estimate mass loss throughout the 20th and early 21st Century. We present mass balance estimates of the GrIS since retreat commence from the maximum extent...

Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss from GRACE Monthly Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Louise Sandberg; Forsberg, René

2010-01-01

The Greenland ice sheet is currently experiencing a net mass loss. There are however large discrepancies between the published qualitative mass loss estimates, based on different data sets and methods. There are even large differences between the results based on the same data sources, as is the ...

Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Screen, James A.; Deser, Clara; Smith, Doug M.; Zhang, Xiangdong; Blackport, Russell; Kushner, Paul J.; Oudar, Thomas; McCusker, Kelly E.; Sun, Lantao

2018-03-01

The decline of Arctic sea ice is an integral part of anthropogenic climate change. Sea-ice loss is already having a significant impact on Arctic communities and ecosystems. Its role as a cause of climate changes outside of the Arctic has also attracted much scientific interest. Evidence is mounting that Arctic sea-ice loss can affect weather and climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The remote impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss can only be properly represented using models that simulate interactions among the ocean, sea ice, land and atmosphere. A synthesis of six such experiments with different models shows consistent hemispheric-wide atmospheric warming, strongest in the mid-to-high-latitude lower troposphere; an intensification of the wintertime Aleutian Low and, in most cases, the Siberian High; a weakening of the Icelandic Low; and a reduction in strength and southward shift of the mid-latitude westerly winds in winter. The atmospheric circulation response seems to be sensitive to the magnitude and geographic pattern of sea-ice loss and, in some cases, to the background climate state. However, it is unclear whether current-generation climate models respond too weakly to sea-ice change. We advocate for coordinated experiments that use different models and observational constraints to quantify the climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss.

Rapid grounding line migration induced by internal variability of a marine-terminating ice stream

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Robel, A.; Schoof, C.; Tziperman, E.

2013-12-01

Numerous studies have found significant variability in the velocity of ice streams to be a prominent feature of geomorphologic records in the Siple Coast (Catania et al. 2012) and other regions in West Antarctica (Dowdeswell et al. 2008). Observations indicate that grounding line position is strongly influenced by ice stream variability, producing rapid grounding line migration in the recent past (Catania et al. 2006) and the modern (Joughin & Tulaczyk 2002). We analyze the interaction of grounding line mass flux and position in a marine-terminating ice stream using a stretch-coordinate flowline model. This model is based on that described in Schoof (2007), with a mesh refined near the grounding line to ensure accurate resolution of the mechanical transition zone. Here we have added lateral shear stress (Dupont & Alley 2005) and an undrained plastic bed (Tulaczyk et al. 2000). The parameter dependence of ice stream variability seen in this model compares favorably to both simpler (Robel et al. 2013) and more complex (van der Wel et al. 2013) models, though with some key differences. We find that thermally-induced internal ice stream variability can cause very rapid grounding line migration even in the absence of retrograde bed slopes or external forcing. Activation waves propagate along the ice stream length and trigger periods of rapid grounding line migration. We compare the behavior of the grounding line due to internal ice stream variability to changes triggered externally at the grounding line such as the rapid disintegration of buttressing ice shelves. Implications for Heinrich events and the Marine Ice Sheet Instability are discussed.

Rapid changes in ice core gas records - Part 1: On the accuracy of methane synchronisation of ice cores

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Köhler, P.

2010-08-01

Methane synchronisation is a concept to align ice core records during rapid climate changes of the Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events onto a common age scale. However, atmospheric gases are recorded in ice cores with a log-normal-shaped age distribution probability density function, whose exact shape depends mainly on the accumulation rate on the drilling site. This age distribution effectively shifts the mid-transition points of rapid changes in CH4 measured in situ in ice by about 58% of the width of the age distribution with respect to the atmospheric signal. A minimum dating uncertainty, or artefact, in the CH4 synchronisation is therefore embedded in the concept itself, which was not accounted for in previous error estimates. This synchronisation artefact between Greenland and Antarctic ice cores is for GRIP and Byrd less than 40 years, well within the dating uncertainty of CH4, and therefore does not calls the overall concept of the bipolar seesaw into question. However, if the EPICA Dome C ice core is aligned via CH4 to NGRIP this synchronisation artefact is in the most recent unified ice core age scale (Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2010) for LGM climate conditions of the order of three centuries and might need consideration in future gas chronologies.

Hydroxyl radical reactivity at the air-ice interface

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. F. Kahan

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Hydroxyl radicals are important oxidants in the atmosphere and in natural waters. They are also expected to be important in snow and ice, but their reactivity has not been widely studied in frozen aqueous solution. We have developed a spectroscopic probe to monitor the formation and reactions of hydroxyl radicals in situ. Hydroxyl radicals are produced in aqueous solution via the photolysis of nitrite, nitrate, and hydrogen peroxide, and react rapidly with benzene to form phenol. Similar phenol formation rates were observed in aqueous solution and bulk ice. However, no reaction was observed at air-ice interfaces, or when bulk ice samples were crushed prior to photolysis to increase their surface area. We also monitored the heterogeneous reaction between benzene present at air-water and air-ice interfaces with gas-phase OH produced from HONO photolysis. Rapid phenol formation was observed on water surfaces, but no reaction was observed at the surface of ice. Under the same conditions, we observed rapid loss of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH anthracene at air-water interfaces, but no loss was observed at air-ice interfaces. Our results suggest that the reactivity of hydroxyl radicals toward aromatic organics is similar in bulk ice samples and in aqueous solution, but is significantly suppressed in the quasi-liquid layer (QLL that exists at air-ice interfaces.

Remarkable separability of circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing

Science.gov (United States)

McCusker, K. E.; Kushner, P. J.; Fyfe, J. C.; Sigmond, M.; Kharin, V. V.; Bitz, C. M.

2017-08-01

Arctic sea ice loss may influence midlatitude climate by changing large-scale circulation. The extent to which climate change can be understood as greenhouse gas-induced changes that are modulated by this loss depends on how additive the responses to the separate influences are. A novel sea ice nudging methodology in a fully coupled climate model reveals that the separate effects of doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and associated Arctic sea ice loss are remarkably additive and insensitive to the mean climate state. This separability is evident in several fields throughout most of the year, from hemispheric to synoptic scales. The extent to which the regional response to sea ice loss sometimes agrees with and sometimes cancels the response to CO2 is quantified. The separability of the responses might provide a means to better interpret the diverse array of modeling and observational studies of Arctic change and influence.

Accelerated ice-sheet mass loss in Antarctica from 18-year satellite laser ranging measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shuanggen Jin

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Accurate estimate of the ice-sheet mass balance in Antarctic is very difficult due to complex ice sheet condition and sparse in situ measurements. In this paper, the low-degree gravity field coefficients of up to degree and order 5 derived from Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR measurements are used to determine the ice mass variations in Antarctica for the period 1993–2011. Results show that the ice mass is losing with -36±13 Gt/y in Antarctica, -42±11 Gt/y in the West Antarctica and 6±10 Gt/y in the East Antarctica from 1993 to 2011. The ice mass variations from the SLR 5×5 have a good agreement with the GRACE 5×5, GRACE 5×5 (1&2 and GRACE (60×60 for the entire continent since 2003, but degree 5 from SLR is not sufficient to quantify ice losses in West and East Antarctica, respectively. The rate of ice loss in Antarctica is -28±17 Gt/y for 1993-2002 and -55±17 Gt/y for 2003-2011, indicating significant accelerated ice mass losses since 2003. Furthermore, the results from SLR are comparable with GRACE measurements.

Ice-Cliff Failure via Retrogressive Slumping

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Parizek, B. R.; Christianson, K.; Alley, R. B.; Voytenko, D.; Vankova, I.; Dixon, T. H.; Holland, D.

2016-12-01

The magnitude and rate of future sea-level rise from warming-induced ice-sheet shrinkage remain notably uncertain. Removal of most of an ice sheet by surface melting alone requires centuries to millennia. Oceanic warming may accelerate loss by removing buttressing ice shelves and thereby speeding flow of non-floating ice into the ocean, but, until recently, modeled timescales for major dynamic ice-sheet shrinkage were centuries or longer. Beyond certain thresholds, however, observations show that warming removes floating ice shelves, leaving grounded ice cliffs from which icebergs break off directly. Cliffs higher than some limit experience rapid structural failure. Recent parameterization of this process in a comprehensive ice-flow model produced much faster sea-level rise from future rapid warming than in previous modeling studies, through formation and retreat of tall ice cliffs. Fully physical representations of this process are not yet available, however. Here, we use modeling guided by terrestrial radar data from Helheim Glacier, Greenland to show that cliffs will fail by slumping and trigger rapid retreat at a threshold height that, in crevassed ice with surface melting, may be only slightly above the 100-m maximum observed today, but may be roughly twice that (180-275 m) in mechanically-competent ice under well-drained or low-melt conditions.

Greenland ice sheet mass balance: a review.

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Khan, Shfaqat A; Aschwanden, Andy; Bjørk, Anders A; Wahr, John; Kjeldsen, Kristian K; Kjær, Kurt H

2015-04-01

Over the past quarter of a century the Arctic has warmed more than any other region on Earth, causing a profound impact on the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to the rise in global sea level. The loss of ice can be partitioned into processes related to surface mass balance and to ice discharge, which are forced by internal or external (atmospheric/oceanic/basal) fluctuations. Regardless of the measurement method, observations over the last two decades show an increase in ice loss rate, associated with speeding up of glaciers and enhanced melting. However, both ice discharge and melt-induced mass losses exhibit rapid short-term fluctuations that, when extrapolated into the future, could yield erroneous long-term trends. In this paper we review the GrIS mass loss over more than a century by combining satellite altimetry, airborne altimetry, interferometry, aerial photographs and gravimetry data sets together with modelling studies. We revisit the mass loss of different sectors and show that they manifest quite different sensitivities to atmospheric and oceanic forcing. In addition, we discuss recent progress in constructing coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models required to project realistic future sea-level changes.

Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet mass loss

Science.gov (United States)

Van Tricht, Kristof; Gorodetskaya, Irina V.; L'Ecuyer, Tristan; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Noel, Brice; Turner, David D.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.

2015-04-01

Clouds have a profound influence on both the Arctic and global climate, while they still represent one of the key uncertainties in climate models, limiting the fidelity of future climate projections. The potentially important role of thin liquid-containing clouds over Greenland in enhancing ice sheet melt has recently gained interest, yet current research is spatially and temporally limited, focusing on particular events, and their large scale impact on the surface mass balance remains unknown. We used a combination of satellite remote sensing (CloudSat - CALIPSO), ground-based observations and climate model (RACMO) data to show that liquid-containing clouds warm the Greenland ice sheet 94% of the time. High surface reflectivity (albedo) for shortwave radiation reduces the cloud shortwave cooling effect on the absorbed fluxes, while not influencing the absorption of longwave radiation. Cloud warming over the ice sheet therefore dominates year-round. Only when albedo values drop below ~0.6 in the coastal areas during summer, the cooling effect starts to overcome the warming effect. The year-round excess of energy due to the presence of liquid-containing clouds has an extensive influence on the mass balance of the ice sheet. Simulations using the SNOWPACK snow model showed not only a strong influence of these liquid-containing clouds on melt increase, but also on the increased sublimation mass loss. Simulations with the Community Earth System Climate Model for the end of the 21st century (2080-2099) show that Greenland clouds contain more liquid water path and less ice water path. This implies that cloud radiative forcing will be further enhanced in the future. Our results therefore urge the need for improving cloud microphysics in climate models, to improve future projections of ice sheet mass balance and global sea level rise.

Examination of Icing Induced Loss of Control and Its Mitigations

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Reehorst, Andrew L.; Addy, Harold E., Jr.; Colantonio, Renato O.

2010-01-01

Factors external to the aircraft are often a significant causal factor in loss of control (LOC) accidents. In today s aviation world, very few accidents stem from a single cause and typically have a number of causal factors that culminate in a LOC accident. Very often the "trigger" that initiates an accident sequence is an external environment factor. In a recent NASA statistical analysis of LOC accidents, aircraft icing was shown to be the most common external environmental LOC causal factor for scheduled operations. When investigating LOC accident or incidents aircraft icing causal factors can be categorized into groups of 1) in-flight encounter with super-cooled liquid water clouds, 2) take-off with ice contamination, or 3) in-flight encounter with high concentrations of ice crystals. As with other flight hazards, icing induced LOC accidents can be prevented through avoidance, detection, and recovery mitigations. For icing hazards, avoidance can take the form of avoiding flight into icing conditions or avoiding the hazard of icing by making the aircraft tolerant to icing conditions. Icing detection mitigations can take the form of detecting icing conditions or detecting early performance degradation caused by icing. Recovery from icing induced LOC requires flight crew or automated systems capable of accounting for reduced aircraft performance and degraded control authority during the recovery maneuvers. In this report we review the icing induced LOC accident mitigations defined in a recent LOC study and for each mitigation describe a research topic required to enable or strengthen the mitigation. Many of these research topics are already included in ongoing or planned NASA icing research activities or are being addressed by members of the icing research community. These research activities are described and the status of the ongoing or planned research to address the technology needs is discussed

Sharply increased mass loss from glaciers and ice caps in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

Science.gov (United States)

Gardner, Alex S; Moholdt, Geir; Wouters, Bert; Wolken, Gabriel J; Burgess, David O; Sharp, Martin J; Cogley, J Graham; Braun, Carsten; Labine, Claude

2011-05-19

Mountain glaciers and ice caps are contributing significantly to present rates of sea level rise and will continue to do so over the next century and beyond. The Canadian Arctic Archipelago, located off the northwestern shore of Greenland, contains one-third of the global volume of land ice outside the ice sheets, but its contribution to sea-level change remains largely unknown. Here we show that the Canadian Arctic Archipelago has recently lost 61 ± 7 gigatonnes per year (Gt yr(-1)) of ice, contributing 0.17 ± 0.02 mm yr(-1) to sea-level rise. Our estimates are of regional mass changes for the ice caps and glaciers of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago referring to the years 2004 to 2009 and are based on three independent approaches: surface mass-budget modelling plus an estimate of ice discharge (SMB+D), repeat satellite laser altimetry (ICESat) and repeat satellite gravimetry (GRACE). All three approaches show consistent and large mass-loss estimates. Between the periods 2004-2006 and 2007-2009, the rate of mass loss sharply increased from 31 ± 8 Gt yr(-1) to 92 ± 12 Gt yr(-1) in direct response to warmer summer temperatures, to which rates of ice loss are highly sensitive (64 ± 14 Gt yr(-1) per 1 K increase). The duration of the study is too short to establish a long-term trend, but for 2007-2009, the increase in the rate of mass loss makes the Canadian Arctic Archipelago the single largest contributor to eustatic sea-level rise outside Greenland and Antarctica.

Improving volume loss estimates of the northwestern Greenland Ice Sheet 2002-2010

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Korsgaard, Niels Jákup; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Kjeldsen, Kristian Kjellerup

Studies have been carried out using various methods to estimate the Greenland ice sheet mass balance. Remote sensing techniques used to determine the ice sheet volume includes airborne and satellite radar and laser methods and measurements of ice flow of outlet glaciers use InSAR satellite radar......) does not work on sloping surfaces and is affected by radar penetration into the snow. InSAR estimates require knowledge of outlet glacier thickness. GRACE has limited spatial resolution and is affected by mass variations not just from ice changes, but also from hydrologic and ocean mass variability...... and mass redistribution within the solid Earth. The accuracy of ice mass and ice volume estimates can be assessed by comparing results from different techniques. Here, we focus on volume loss estimates from ICESat, ATM and LVIS data. We estimate catchment-wide ice volume change in northwest Greenland...

Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Feedbacks in the CESM1 Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Morrison, A.; Kay, J. E.; Chepfer, H.; Guzman, R.; Bonazzola, M.

2017-12-01

Clouds have the potential to accelerate or slow the rate of Arctic sea ice loss through their radiative influence on the surface. Cloud feedbacks can therefore play into Arctic warming as clouds respond to changes in sea ice cover. As the Arctic moves toward an ice-free state, understanding how cloud - sea ice relationships change in response to sea ice loss is critical for predicting the future climate trajectory. From satellite observations we know the effect of present-day sea ice cover on clouds, but how will clouds respond to sea ice loss as the Arctic transitions to a seasonally open water state? In this study we use a lidar simulator to first evaluate cloud - sea ice relationships in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) against present-day observations (2006-2015). In the current climate, the cloud response to sea ice is well-represented in CESM1: we see no summer cloud response to changes in sea ice cover, but more fall clouds over open water than over sea ice. Since CESM1 is credible for the current Arctic climate, we next assess if our process-based understanding of Arctic cloud feedbacks related to sea ice loss is relevant for understanding future Arctic clouds. In the future Arctic, summer cloud structure continues to be insensitive to surface conditions. As the Arctic warms in the fall, however, the boundary layer deepens and cloud fraction increases over open ocean during each consecutive decade from 2020 - 2100. This study will also explore seasonal changes in cloud properties such as opacity and liquid water path. Results thus far suggest that a positive fall cloud - sea ice feedback exists in the present-day and future Arctic climate.

Characterization of rapid climate changes through isotope analyses of ice and entrapped air in the NEEM ice core

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guillevic, Myriam

Greenland ice core have revealed the occurrence of rapid climatic instabilities during the last glacial period, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, while marine cores from the North Atlantic have evidenced layers of ice rafted debris deposited by icebergs melt, caused by the collapse...... mechanisms at play. Recent analytical developments have made possible to measure new paleoclimate proxies in Greenland ice cores. In this thesis we first contribute to these analytical developments by measuring the new innovative parameter 17O-excess at LSCE (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climatet de l......'Environnement, France). At the Centre for Ice and Climate (CIC, Denmark) we contribute to the development of a protocol for absolute referencing of methane gas isotopes, and making full air standard with known concentration and isotopic composition of methane. Then, air (δ15N) and water stable isotope measurements from...

Surface mass balance contributions to acceleration of Antarctic ice mass loss during 2003-2013

OpenAIRE

Seo, Ki-Weon; Wilson, Clark R.; Scambos, Ted; Kim, Baek-Min; Waliser, Duane E.; Tian, Baijun; Kim, Byeong-Hoon; Eom, Jooyoung

2015-01-01

Abstract Recent observations from satellite gravimetry (the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission) suggest an acceleration of ice mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). The contribution of surface mass balance changes (due to variable precipitation) is compared with GRACE?derived mass loss acceleration by assessing the estimated contribution of snow mass from meteorological reanalysis data. We find that over much of the continent, the acceleration can be explained by ...

Biogeochemical cycling in a subarctic fjord adjacent to the Greenland Ice Sheet

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meire, L.

2016-01-01

Temperatures in the Arctic have increased rapidly in recent years resulting in the melting of sea ice and glaciers at unprecedented rates. In 2012, sea ice extent across the Arctic reached a record minimum and the melt extent of Greenland Ice Sheet reached a record maximum. The accelerated mass loss

Observations of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Volume Loss and Its Impact on Ocean-Atmosphere Energy Exchange and Ice Production

Science.gov (United States)

Kurtz, N. T.; Markus, T.; Farrell, S. L.; Worthen, D. L.; Boisvert, L. N.

2011-01-01

Using recently developed techniques we estimate snow and sea ice thickness distributions for the Arctic basin through the combination of freeboard data from the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and a snow depth model. These data are used with meteorological data and a thermodynamic sea ice model to calculate ocean-atmosphere heat exchange and ice volume production during the 2003-2008 fall and winter seasons. The calculated heat fluxes and ice growth rates are in agreement with previous observations over multiyear ice. In this study, we calculate heat fluxes and ice growth rates for the full distribution of ice thicknesses covering the Arctic basin and determine the impact of ice thickness change on the calculated values. Thinning of the sea ice is observed which greatly increases the 2005-2007 fall period ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes compared to those observed in 2003. Although there was also a decline in sea ice thickness for the winter periods, the winter time heat flux was found to be less impacted by the observed changes in ice thickness. A large increase in the net Arctic ocean-atmosphere heat output is also observed in the fall periods due to changes in the areal coverage of sea ice. The anomalously low sea ice coverage in 2007 led to a net ocean-atmosphere heat output approximately 3 times greater than was observed in previous years and suggests that sea ice losses are now playing a role in increasing surface air temperatures in the Arctic.

Quantifying volume loss from ice cliffs on debris-covered glaciers using high-resolution terrestrial and aerial photogrammetry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brun, Fanny; Buri, Pascal; Miles, Evan S.; Wagnon, Patrick; Steiner, J.F.; Berthier, Etienne; Ragettli, S.; Kraaijenbrink, P.D.A.; Immerzeel, W.W.; Pellicciotti, Francesca

Mass losses originating from supraglacial ice cliffs at the lower tongues of debris-covered glaciers are a potentially large component of the mass balance, but have rarely been quantified. In this study, we develop a method to estimate ice cliff volume losses based on high-resolution topographic

Determination of Acreage Thermal Protection Foam Loss From Ice and Foam Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Carney, Kelly S.; Lawrence, Charles

2015-01-01

A parametric study was conducted to establish Thermal Protection System (TPS) loss from foam and ice impact conditions similar to what might occur on the Space Launch System. This study was based upon the large amount of testing and analysis that was conducted with both ice and foam debris impacts on TPS acreage foam for the Space Shuttle Project External Tank. Test verified material models and modeling techniques that resulted from Space Shuttle related testing were utilized for this parametric study. Parameters varied include projectile mass, impact velocity and impact angle (5 degree and 10 degree impacts). The amount of TPS acreage foam loss as a result of the various impact conditions is presented.

Ice sheet-ocean interactions and sea level change

Science.gov (United States)

Heimbach, Patrick

2014-03-01

Mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has increased rapidly since the mid-1990s. Their combined loss now accounts for about one-third of global sea level rise. In Greenland, a growing body of evidence points to the marine margins of these glaciers as the region from which this dynamic response originated. Similarly, ice streams in West Antarctica that feed vast floating ice shelves have exhibited large decadal changes. We review observational evidence and present physical mechanisms that might explain the observed changes, in particular in the context of ice sheet-ocean interactions. Processes involve cover 7 orders of magnitudes of scales, ranging from mm boundary-layer processes to basin-scale coupled atmosphere-ocean variability. We discuss observational needs to fill the gap in our mechanistic understanding.

Exploring the sensitivity of global ocean circulation to future ice loss from Antarctica

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Condron, Alan [Univ. of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (United States); Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Woods Hole, MA (United States)

2017-09-30

The sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are rarely studied and poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Observations collected over the last 30 years indicate that the WAIS is now losing mass at an accelerated and that a collapse may have already begun in the Amundsen Sea sector. In addition, some recent future model simulations of the AIS show the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years. Such a collapse would be associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project funds PI Condron to begin assessing the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation to projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the AIS for the next 50 – 100 years. A series of climate model simulations will determine changes in ocean circulation and temperature at the ice sheet grounding line, the role of mesoscale ocean eddies in mixing and transporting freshwater away from the continent to deep water formation regions, and the likely impact on the northward transport of heat to Europe and North America.

Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Temperature, Melt, and Mass Loss: 2000-2006

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Williams, Richard S., Jr.; Luthcke, Scott B.; DiGirolamo, Nocolo

2007-01-01

Extensive melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented by a variety of ground and satellite measurements in recent years. If the well-documented warming continues in the Arctic, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet will likely accelerate, contributing to sea-level rise. Modeling studies indicate that an annual or summer temperature rise of 1 C on the ice sheet will increase melt by 20-50% therefore, surface temperature is one of the most important ice-sheet parameters to study for analysis of changes in the mass balance of the ice-sheet. The Greenland Ice Sheet contains enough water to produce a rise in eustatic sea level of up to 7.0 m if the ice were to melt completely. However, even small changes (centimeters) in sea level would cause important economic and societal consequences in the world's major coastal cities thus it is extremely important to monitor changes in the ice-sheet surface temperature and to ultimately quantify these changes in terms of amount of sea-level rise. We have compiled a high-resolution, daily time series of surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet, using the I-km resolution, clear-sky land-surface temperature (LST) standard product from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), from 2000 - 2006. We also use Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, averaged over 10-day periods, to measure change in mass of the ice sheet as it melt and snow accumulates. Surface temperature can be used to determine frequency of surface melt, timing of the start and the end of the melt season, and duration of melt. In conjunction with GRACE data, it can also be used to analyze timing of ice-sheet mass loss and gain.

Survival of plant tissue at super-low temperatures v. An electron microscope study of ice in cortical cells cooled rapidly.

Science.gov (United States)

Sakai, A; Otsuka, K

1967-12-01

Experiments were carried out with cortical cells in twig bark of mulberry trees in winter in order to clarify the mechanism of survival at super-low temperatures with rapid cooling and rewarming. Attention was given to the relation between the existence of intracellular ice crystals and survival.Cortical cells were cooled rapidly by direct immersion into liquid nitrogen or isopentane cooled at various temperatures. After immersion, they were freeze-substituted with absolute ethanol at -78 degrees . They were then embedded, sectioned and examined under the electron microscope for the presence and distribution of cavities left after ice removal.Cells were found to remain alive and contain no ice cavities when immersed rapidly into isopentane baths kept below -60 degrees . Those cells at intermediate temperatures from -20 degrees to -45 degrees , were almost all destroyed. It was also observed that many ice cavities were contained in the cells immersed rapidly into isopentane baths at -30 degrees . The data seem to indicate that no ice crystals were formed when cooled rapidly by direct immersion into isopentane baths below -60 degrees or into liquid nitrogen.The tissue sections immersed in liquid nitrogen were rapidly transferred to isopentane baths at temperatures ranging from -70 degrees to -10 degrees before rapid rewarming. There was little damage when samples were held at temperatures below -50 degrees for 10 minutes or below -60 degrees for 16 hours. No cavities were found in these cells. Above -45 degrees , and especially at -30 degrees , however, all cells were completely destroyed even when exposed only for 1 minute. Many ice cavities were observed throughout these cells. The results obtained may be explained in terms of the growth rate of intracellular ice crystals.

Accelerated mass loss from Greenland ice sheet : Links to atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Seo, Ki-Weon; Waliser, Duane E.; Lee, Choon-Ki; Tian, Baijun; Scambos, Ted; Kim, Baek-Min; van Angelen, Jan H.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

Understanding the mechanisms that drive the mass imbalance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is critical to the accurate projection of its contribution to future sea level rise. Greenland's ice mass loss has been accelerating recently. Using satellite Earth-gravity and regional climate model data,

The performance of probiotic fermented sheep milk and ice cream sheep milk in inhibiting enamel mineral loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Nadelman, P; Frazão, J V; Vieira, T I; Balthazar, C F; Andrade, M M; Alexandria, A K; Cruz, A G; Fonseca-Gonçalves, A; Maia, L C

2017-07-01

The study aimed to evaluate the effects of two different sheep milk-based food matrices - fermented sheep milk and ice cream - with added probiotic bacteria (Lactobacillus casei 431) on dental enamel subjected to an in vitro highly cariogenic challenge. Sixty enamel blocks were selected and randomly allocated into five treatment groups (n=12): conventional fermented sheep milk (CFSM), probiotic fermented sheep milk (PFSM), conventional sheep milk ice cream (CSMIC), probiotic sheep milk ice cream (PSMIC) and control using deionized water. The blocks were subjected to highly cariogenic pH cycling and the products were applied (5min), in a blinded way, once a day to simulate a daily use for 8 consecutive days. A microhardness test was performed before and after the treatment to estimate the percentage of microhardness surface loss (% SML). Scanning electronic microscopy (SEM) was performed to confirm the mineral loss. All groups had lost microhardness after the experiment. However, CFSM and PFSM exhibited the most positive findings when compared to the control in both ice creams. Scanning electron microscopy showed less mineral loss in CFSM and PFSM compared with CSMIC, PSMIC and control after the cariogenic challenge. Overall, fermented milk decreased mineral loss from enamel subjected to a highly cariogenic challenge, regardless of the presence of probiotics in their composition, which had a higher efficacy compared to ice cream. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Destabilization of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Korsgaard, N. J.; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Kjaer, K. H.

. Here, we reveal that the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS), which extends more than 600 km into the interior of the ice sheet, is now undergoing dynamic thinning after more than a quarter of a century of stability. This sector of the GrIS is of particular interest in sea level projections, because...... the glacier flows into a large submarine basin with a negative bed slope near the grounding line. Our findings unfold the next step in mass loss of the GrIS as we show a heightened risk of rapid sustained loss from Northeast Greenland on top of the thinning in Southeast and Northwestern Greenland....

Arctic Ice Management: an integrated approach to climate engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Desch, S. J.; Hartnett, H. E.; Groppi, C. E.; Romaniello, S. J.

2017-12-01

The warming climate is having the most rapid and pronounced effects in the high Arctic. The loss of Arctic sea ice is not only changing the physical oceanography of the Arctic Ocean and its coastlines; it is also promoting new conversations about the dangers and benefits for trade, transportation, and industry in the Arctic. The rate of decrease of summer sea ice in the Arctic is currently -300 km3 yr-1, a rate that will lead to complete loss of end-summer sea ice as soon as 2030. Preventing the strong positive feedbacks and increased warming due to sea ice albedo loss must be an important component of climate mitigation strategies. Here, we explore a direct engineering approach we call Arctic Ice Management (AIM) to reduce the loss of Arctic sea ice. We predict that pumping seawater onto the ice surface during the Arctic winter using wind-powered pumps can thicken sea ice by up to 1 m per year, reversing the current loss rates and prolonging the time until the Arctic Ocean is ice-free. Thickening sea ice would not change CO2 levels, which are the underlying cause of ice loss, but it would prevent some of the strongest feedbacks and would buy time to develop the tools and governance systems necessary to achieve carbon-neutrality. We advocate exploration of AIM as a mitigation strategy employed in parallel with CO2 reduction efforts. The opportunity and risk profiles of AIM differ from other geoengineering proposals. While similar in principle to solar radiation management, AIM may present fewer large-scale environmental risks. AIM is separate from greenhouse gas emission reduction or sequestration, but might help prevent accelerated release of methane from thawing permafrost. Further, AIM might be usefully employed at regional and local scales to preserve Arctic ecosystems and possibly reduce the effects of ice-loss induced coastal erosion. Through presentation of the AIM concept, we hope to spark new conversations between scientists, stakeholders, and decision

Sustained mass loss of the northeast Greenland ice sheet triggered by regional warming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Kjaer, Kurt H.; Bevis, Michael

2014-01-01

The Greenland ice sheet has been one of the largest contributors to global sea-level rise over the past 20 years, accounting for 0.5 mm yr(-1) of a total of 3.2 mm yr(-1). A significant portion of this contribution is associated with the speed-up of an increased number of glaciers in southeast...... and northwest Greenland. Here, we show that the northeast Greenland ice stream, which extends more than 600 km into the interior of the ice sheet, is now undergoing sustained dynamic thinning, linked to regional warming, after more than a quarter of a century of stability. This sector of the Greenland ice sheet...... is of particular interest, because the drainage basin area covers 16% of the ice sheet (twice that of Jakobshavn Isbrae) and numerical model predictions suggest no significant mass loss for this sector, leading to an under-estimation of future global sea-level rise. The geometry of the bedrock and monotonic trend...

Surface Mass Balance Contributions to Acceleration of Antarctic Ice Mass Loss during 2003- 2013

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, K. W.; Wilson, C. R.; Scambos, T. A.; Kim, B. M.; Waliser, D. E.; Tian, B.; Kim, B.; Eom, J.

2015-12-01

Recent observations from satellite gravimetry (the GRACE mission) suggest an acceleration of ice mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). The contribution of surface mass balance changes (due to variable precipitation) is compared with GRACE-derived mass loss acceleration by assessing the estimated contribution of snow mass from meteorological reanalysis data. We find that over much of the continent, the acceleration can be explained by precipitation anomalies. However, on the Antarctic Peninsula and other parts of West Antarctica mass changes are not explained by precipitation and are likely associated with ice discharge rate increases. The total apparent GRACE acceleration over all of the AIS between 2003 and 2013 is -13.6±7.2 GTon/yr2. Of this total, we find that the surface mass balance component is -8.2±2.0 GTon/yr2. However, the GRACE estimate appears to contain errors arising from the atmospheric pressure fields used to remove air mass effects. The estimated acceleration error from this effect is about 9.8±5.8 GTon/yr2. Correcting for this yields an ice discharge acceleration of -15.1±6.5 GTon/yr2.

Loss of sea ice in the Arctic.

Science.gov (United States)

Perovich, Donald K; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A

2009-01-01

The Arctic sea ice cover is in decline. The areal extent of the ice cover has been decreasing for the past few decades at an accelerating rate. Evidence also points to a decrease in sea ice thickness and a reduction in the amount of thicker perennial sea ice. A general global warming trend has made the ice cover more vulnerable to natural fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The observed reduction in Arctic sea ice is a consequence of both thermodynamic and dynamic processes, including such factors as preconditioning of the ice cover, overall warming trends, changes in cloud coverage, shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns, increased export of older ice out of the Arctic, advection of ocean heat from the Pacific and North Atlantic, enhanced solar heating of the ocean, and the ice-albedo feedback. The diminishing Arctic sea ice is creating social, political, economic, and ecological challenges.

Dissolved organic carbon loss from Yedoma permafrost amplified by ice wedge thaw

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vonk, J.E.; Mann, P.J.; Dowdy, K.L.; Davydova, A.; Davydov, S.P.; Zimov, N.; Spencer, R.G.M.; Bulygina, E.B.; Eglinton, T.I.; Holmes, R.M.

2013-01-01

Pleistocene Yedoma permafrost contains nearly a third of all organic matter (OM) stored in circum-arctic permafrost and is characterized by the presence of massive ice wedges. Due to its rapid formation by sediment accumulation and subsequent frozen storage, Yedoma OM is relatively well preserved

Effects of streptomycin, desiccation, and UV radiation on ice nucleation by Pseudomonas viridiflava

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, J.A.; Ashworth, E.N.

1986-01-01

Streptomycin (100 micrograms per milliliter), desiccation (over CaSO 4 ), and ultraviolet radiation (4500 microwatts per square centimeter at 254 nonometers for 15 minutes) reduced ice nucleation activity by Pseudomonas viridiflava strain W-1 as determined by freezing drops of the bacterial suspensions. Highest residual ice nucleation activity by dead cells was obtained by desiccation, although no freezing above -3.5 0 C was detected. The rate and extent of loss of ice nucleation activity following streptomycin and ultraviolet treatment was affected by preconditioning temperature. At 21 0 C and above, loss of activity by dead cells was rapid and irreversible

Ice/Bedrock Feedbacks as a Principle Contributor to Glacial-Interglacial Oscillations

Science.gov (United States)

Kimmel, J.; Lee, K.; Jackson, C. H.

2014-12-01

Since the mid-Pleistocene, the oscillation between glacial and interglacial climate states occurs with a period of approximately 100 kyr. Each cycle is comprised of a slow glaciation with a subsequent rapid deglaciation. While the solar forcing is clearly an important driver for these transitions, the power spectrum of the solar forcing is quite different from the subsequent climate response and, in general, does not have a noticeable correlation with global ice volume. Instead, previous studies have shown that internal climate processes and their interactions (e.g., CO2, water vapor, isostatic bed response) play a significant role in producing these global climate cycles. The rapid retreat of large ice sheets at the start of an interglacial is often attributed to the interaction between surface and atmospheric processes. While calving is thought to amplify this retreat, it is not typically considered a principle driver of the ice sheet response. Our study investigates the potential for ice/bedrock feedbacks to be a principle contributor in shaping the glacial-interglacial climate oscillation -- particularly the rapid deglaciation that precedes an interglacial. The ice sheet model we develop includes a piecewise linear ice/bedrock feedback while atmospheric and surface processes are taken to be as simple as possible. Due to the long timescale of the bedrock response and the rapid mass loss due to calving, the model ice sheet exhibits rapid deglaciation from a stable maximum when it retreats through an overdeepening. However, ice sheet advance is also shown to be as rapid unless a more complex bedrock response is considered. In particular, we show that a forebulge created by the displacement of the mantle adds a new stable branch to the volume/equilibrium line bifurcation diagram that results in slower growth of the ice sheet during glaciation.

How reversible is sea ice loss?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. K. Ridley

2012-02-01

Full Text Available It is well accepted that increasing atmospheric CO₂ results in global warming, leading to a decline in polar sea ice area. Here, the specific question of whether there is a tipping point in the sea ice cover is investigated. The global climate model HadCM3 is used to map the trajectory of sea ice area under idealised scenarios. The atmospheric CO₂ is first ramped up to four times pre-industrial levels (4 × CO₂, then ramped down to pre-industrial levels. We also examine the impact of stabilising climate at 4 × CO₂ prior to ramping CO₂ down to pre-industrial levels. Against global mean temperature, Arctic sea ice area is reversible, while the Antarctic sea ice shows some asymmetric behaviour – its rate of change slower, with falling temperatures, than its rate of change with rising temperatures. However, we show that the asymmetric behaviour is driven by hemispherical differences in temperature change between transient and stabilisation periods. We find no irreversible behaviour in the sea ice cover.

Peeking Below the Snow Surface to Explore Amundsen Sea Climate Variability and Locate Optimal Ice-Core Sites

Science.gov (United States)

Neff, P. D.; Fudge, T. J.; Medley, B.

2016-12-01

Observations over recent decades reveal rapid changes in ice shelves and fast-flowing grounded ice along the Amundsen Sea coast of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Long-term perspectives on this ongoing ice loss are needed to address a central question of Antarctic research: how much and how fast will Antarctic ice-loss raise sea level? Ice cores can provide insight into past variability of the atmospheric (wind) forcing of regional ocean dynamics affecting ice loss. Interannual variability of snow accumulation on coastal ice domes grounded near or within ice shelves reflects local to regional atmospheric circulation near the ice-ocean interface. Records of snow accumulation inferred from shallow ice cores strongly correlate with reanalysis precipitation and pressure fields, but ice cores have not yet been retrieved along the Amundsen Sea coast. High-frequency airborne radar data (NASA Operation IceBridge), however, have been collected over this region and we demonstrate that these data accurately reflect annual stratigraphy in shallow snow and firn (1 to 2 decades of accumulation). This further validates the agreement between radar snow accumulation records and climate reanalysis products. We then explore regional climate controls on local snow accumulation through comparison with gridded reanalysis products, providing a preview of what information longer coastal ice core records may provide with respect to past atmospheric forcing of ocean circulation and WAIS ice loss.

Spatial pattern of mass loss processes across the Greenland Ice Sheet from the Little Ice Age to 2010

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjaer, K. H.; Korsgaard, N. J.; Kjeldsen, K. K.

The Greenland Ice Sheet loses mass through surface meltwater runoff and discharge from marine terminating outlet glaciers. The spatial variability and magnitude of these processes have been studied and described in detail for the past decades. Here, we combine the mass loss between the LIA to 2010...... these components are variable between the different sectors of the GrIS, e.g. in the southeast sector of the GrIS we find substantial mass loss, possibly driven by high precipitation rates but also the presence of a large number of marine terminating glaciers. Furthermore many areas currently undergoing changes...

Major rapid weight loss induces changes in cardiac repolarization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vedel-Larsen, Esben; Iepsen, Eva Winning; Lundgren, Julie

2016-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Obesity is associated with increased all-cause mortality, but weight loss may not decrease cardiovascular events. In fact, very low calorie diets have been linked to arrhythmias and sudden death. The QT interval is the standard marker for cardiac repolarization, but T-wave morphology...... analysis has been suggested as a more sensitive method to identify changes in cardiac repolarization. We examined the effect of a major and rapid weight loss on T-wave morphology. METHODS AND RESULTS: Twenty-six individuals had electrocardiograms (ECG) taken before and after eight weeks of weight loss......A1c (pweight loss induces changes in cardiac repolarization. Monitoring of MCS during calorie restriction makes it possible to detect repolarization changes with higher discriminative power than the QT-interval during major rapid weight...

Improved ice loss estimate of the northwestern Greenland ice sheet

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kjeldsen, K.K.; Khan, S.A.; van den Broeke, M.R.; van Angelen, J.H.

2013-01-01

We estimate ice volume change rates in the northwest Greenland drainage basin during 2003–2009 using Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimeter data. Elevation changes are often reported to be largest near the frontal portion of outlet glaciers. To improve the volume change

Respective roles of direct GHG radiative forcing and induced Arctic sea ice loss on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Oudar, Thomas; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Chauvin, Fabrice; Cattiaux, Julien; Terray, Laurent; Cassou, Christophe

2017-12-01

The large-scale and synoptic-scale Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation responses to projected late twenty-first century Arctic sea ice decline induced by increasing Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) concentrations are investigated using the CNRM-CM5 coupled model. An original protocol, based on a flux correction technique, allows isolating the respective roles of GHG direct radiative effect and induced Arctic sea ice loss under RCP8.5 scenario. In winter, the surface atmospheric response clearly exhibits opposing effects between GHGs increase and Arctic sea ice loss, leading to no significant pattern in the total response (particularly in the North Atlantic region). An analysis based on Eady growth rate shows that Arctic sea ice loss drives the weakening in the low-level meridional temperature gradient, causing a general decrease of the baroclinicity in the mid and high latitudes, whereas the direct impact of GHGs increase is more located in the mid-to-high troposphere. Changes in the flow waviness, evaluated from sinuosity and blocking frequency metrics, are found to be small relative to inter-annual variability.

Selected physical, biological and biogeochemical implications of a rapidly changing Arctic Marginal Ice Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Barber, David G.; Hop, Haakon; Mundy, Christopher J.; Else, Brent; Dmitrenko, Igor A.; Tremblay, Jean-Eric; Ehn, Jens K.; Assmy, Philipp; Daase, Malin; Candlish, Lauren M.; Rysgaard, Søren

2015-12-01

The Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) of the Arctic Ocean is changing rapidly due to a warming Arctic climate with commensurate reductions in sea ice extent and thickness. This Pan-Arctic review summarizes the main changes in the Arctic ocean-sea ice-atmosphere (OSA) interface, with implications for primary- and secondary producers in the ice and the underlying water column. Changes in the Arctic MIZ were interpreted for the period 1979-2010, based on best-fit regressions for each month. Trends of increasingly open water were statistically significant for each month, with quadratic fit for August-November, illustrating particularly strong seasonal feedbacks in sea-ice formation and decay. Geographic interpretations of physical and biological changes were based on comparison of regions with significant changes in sea ice: (1) The Pacific Sector of the Arctic Ocean including the Canada Basin and the Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian seas; (2) The Canadian Arctic Archipelago; (3) Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay; and (4) the Barents and Kara seas. Changes in ice conditions in the Barents sea/Kara sea region appear to be primarily forced by ocean heat fluxes during winter, whereas changes in the other sectors appear to be more summer-autumn related and primarily atmospherically forced. Effects of seasonal and regional changes in OSA-system with regard to increased open water were summarized for photosynthetically available radiation, nutrient delivery to the euphotic zone, primary production of ice algae and phytoplankton, ice-associated fauna and zooplankton, and gas exchange of CO2. Changes in the physical factors varied amongst regions, and showed direct effects on organisms linked to sea ice. Zooplankton species appear to be more flexible and likely able to adapt to variability in the onset of primary production. The major changes identified for the ice-associated ecosystem are with regard to production timing and abundance or biomass of ice flora and fauna, which are related to

How much can Greenland melt? An upper bound on mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet through surface melting

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, X.; Bassis, J. N.

2015-12-01

With observations showing accelerated mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface melt, the Greenland Ice Sheet is becoming one of the most significant contributors to sea level rise. The contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet o sea level rise is likely to accelerate in the coming decade and centuries as atmospheric temperatures continue to rise, potentially triggering ever larger surface melt rates. However, at present considerable uncertainty remains in projecting the contribution to sea level of the Greenland Ice Sheet both due to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and the ice sheet response to climate forcing. Here we seek an upper bound on the contribution of surface melt from the Greenland to sea level rise in the coming century using a surface energy balance model coupled to an englacial model. We use IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5, RCP6, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) climate scenarios from an ensemble of global climate models in our simulations to project the maximum rate of ice volume loss and related sea-level rise associated with surface melting. To estimate the upper bound, we assume the Greenland Ice Sheet is perpetually covered in thick clouds, which maximize longwave radiation to the ice sheet. We further assume that deposition of black carbon darkens the ice substantially turning it nearly black, substantially reducing its albedo. Although assuming that all melt water not stored in the snow/firn is instantaneously transported off the ice sheet increases mass loss in the short term, refreezing of retained water warms the ice and may lead to more melt in the long term. Hence we examine both assumptions and use the scenario that leads to the most surface melt by 2100. Preliminary models results suggest that under the most aggressive climate forcing, surface melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributes ~1 m to sea level by the year 2100. This is a significant contribution and ignores dynamic effects. We also examined a lower bound

SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.

Science.gov (United States)

Dutton, A; Carlson, A E; Long, A J; Milne, G A; Clark, P U; DeConto, R; Horton, B P; Rahmstorf, S; Raymo, M E

2015-07-10

Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Aerial photographs reveal late-20th-century dynamic ice loss in northwestern greenland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjær, Kurt H.; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Korsgaard, Niels J

2012-01-01

Global warming is predicted to have a profound impact on the Greenland Ice Sheet and its contribution to global sea-level rise. Recent mass loss in the northwest of Greenland has been substantial. Using aerial photographs, we produced digital elevation models and extended the time record of recent...

On the Predictability of Sea Ice

Science.gov (United States)

Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward

We investigate the persistence and predictability of sea ice in numerical models and observations. We first use the 3rd generation Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) General Circulation Model (GCM) to investigate the inherent persistence of sea-ice area and thickness. We find that sea-ice area anomalies have a seasonal decay timescale, exhibiting an initial decorrelation similar to a first order auto-regressive (AR1, or red noise) process. Beyond this initial loss of memory, there is a re-emergence of memory at certain times of the year. There are two distinct modes of re-emergence in the model, one driven by the seasonal coupling of area and thickness anomalies in the summer, the other by the persistence of upper ocean temperature anomalies that originate from ice anomalies in the melt season and then influence ice anomalies in the growth season. Comparison with satellite observations where available indicate these processes appear in nature. We then use the 4th generation CCSM (CCSM4) to investigate the partition of Arctic sea-ice predictability into its initial-value and boundary forced components under present day forcing conditions. We find that initial-value predictability lasts for 1-2 years for sea-ice area, and 3-4 years for sea-ice volume. Forced predictability arises after just 4-5 years for both area and volume. Initial-value predictability of sea-ice area during the summer hinges on the coupling between thickness and area anomalies during that season. We find that the loss of initial-value predictability with time is not uniform --- there is a rapid loss of predictability of sea-ice volume during the late spring early summer associated with snow melt and albedo feedbacks. At the same time, loss of predictability is not uniform across different regions. Given the usefulness of ice thickness as a predictor of summer sea-ice area, we obtain a hindcast of September sea-ice area initializing the GCM on May 1with an estimate of observed sea-ice thickness

Exploring the effect of East Antarctic ice mass loss on GIA-induced horizontal bedrock motions

Science.gov (United States)

Konfal, S. A.; Whitehouse, P. L.; Hermans, T.; van der Wal, W.; Wilson, T. J.; Bevis, M. G.; Kendrick, E. C.; Dalziel, I.; Smalley, R., Jr.

2017-12-01

Ice history inputs used in Antarctic models of GIA include major centers of ice mass loss in West Antarctica. In the Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) region spanning the boundary between East and West Antarctica, horizontal crustal motions derived from GPS observations from the Antarctic Network (ANET) component of the Polar Earth Observing Network (POLENET) are towards these West Antarctic ice mass centers, opposite to the pattern of radial crustal motion expected in an unloading scenario. We investigate alternative ice history and earth structure inputs to GIA models in an attempt to reproduce observed crustal motions in the region. The W12 ice history model is altered to create scenarios including ice unloading in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin based on available glaciological records. These altered ice history models, along with the unmodified W12 ice history model, are coupled with 60 radially varying (1D) earth model combinations, including approximations of optimal earth profiles identified in published GIA models. The resulting model-predicted motions utilizing both the modified and unmodified ice history models fit ANET GPS-derived crustal motions in the northern TAM region for a suite of earth model combinations. Further south, where the influence of simulated Wilkes unloading is weakest and West Antarctic unloading is strongest, observed and predicted motions do not agree. The influence of simulated Wilkes ice unloading coupled with laterally heterogeneous earth models is also investigated. The resulting model-predicted motions do not differ significantly between the original W12 and W12 with simulated Wilkes unloading ice histories.

Multiyear ice transport and small scale sea ice deformation near the Alaska coast measured by air-deployable Ice Trackers

Science.gov (United States)

Mahoney, A. R.; Kasper, J.; Winsor, P.

2015-12-01

Highly complex patterns of ice motion and deformation were captured by fifteen satellite-telemetered GPS buoys (known as Ice Trackers) deployed near Barrow, Alaska, in spring 2015. Two pentagonal clusters of buoys were deployed on pack ice by helicopter in the Beaufort Sea between 20 and 80 km offshore. During deployment, ice motion in the study region was effectively zero, but two days later the buoys captured a rapid transport event in which multiyear ice from the Beaufort Sea was flushed into the Chukchi Sea. During this event, westward ice motion began in the Chukchi Sea and propagated eastward. This created new openings in the ice and led to rapid elongation of the clusters as the westernmost buoys accelerated away from their neighbors to the east. The buoys tracked ice velocities of over 1.5 ms-1, with fastest motion occurring closest to the coast indicating strong current shear. Three days later, ice motion reversed and the two clusters became intermingled, rendering divergence calculations based on the area enclosed by clusters invalid. The data show no detectable difference in velocity between first year and multiyear ice floes, but Lagrangian timeseries of SAR imagery centered on each buoy show that first year ice underwent significant small-scale deformation during the event. The five remaining buoys were deployed by local residents on prominent ridges embedded in the landfast ice within 16 km of Barrow in order to track the fate of such features after they detached from the coast. Break-up of the landfast ice took place over a period of several days and, although the buoys each initially followed a similar eastward trajectory around Point Barrow into the Beaufort Sea, they rapidly dispersed over an area more than 50 km across. With rapid environmental and socio-economic change in the Arctic, understanding the complexity of nearshore ice motion is increasingly important for predict future changes in the ice and the tracking ice-related hazards

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

Science.gov (United States)

Steven C. Amstrup; Eric T. DeWeaver; David C. Douglas; Bruce G. Marcot; George M. Durner; Cecilia M. Bitz; David A. Bailey

2010-01-01

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible...

It is Time to Ban Rapid Weight Loss from Combat Sports.

Science.gov (United States)

Artioli, Guilherme G; Saunders, Bryan; Iglesias, Rodrigo T; Franchini, Emerson

2016-11-01

Most competitions in combat sports are divided into weight classes, theoretically allowing for fairer and more evenly contested disputes between athletes of similar body size, strength and agility. It has been well documented that most athletes, regardless of the combat sports discipline, reduce significant amounts of body weight in the days prior to competition to qualify for lighter weight classes. Rapid weight loss is characterised by the reduction of a significant amount of body weight (typically 2-10 %, although larger reductions are often seen) in a few days prior to weigh-in (mostly in the last 2-3 days) achieved by a combination of methods that include starvation, severe restriction of fluid intake and intentional sweating. In doing so, athletes try to gain a competitive advantage against lighter, smaller and weaker opponents. Such a drastic and rapid weight reduction is only achievable via a combination of aggressive strategies that lead to hypohydration and starvation. The negative impact of these procedures on health is well described in the literature. Although the impact of rapid weight loss on performance is debated, there remains robust evidence showing that rapid weight loss may not impair performance, and translates into an actual competitive advantage. In addition to the health and performance implications, rapid weight loss clearly breaches fair play and stands against the spirit of the sport because an athlete unwilling to compete having rapidly reduced weight would face unfair contests against opponents who are 'artificially' bigger and stronger. The World Anti-Doping Agency Code states that a prohibited method must meet at least two of the following criteria: (1) enhances performance; (2) endangers an athlete's health; and (3) violates the spirit of the sport. We herein argue that rapid weight loss clearly meets all three criteria and, therefore, should be banned from the sport. To quote the World Anti-Doping Agency Code, this would "protect

Uplift rates from a new high-density GPS network in Palmer Land indicate significant late Holocene ice loss in the southwestern Weddell Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wolstencroft, Martin; King, Matt A.; Whitehouse, Pippa L

2015-01-01

The measurement of ongoing ice-mass loss and associated melt water contribution to sea-level change from regions such as West Antarctica is dependent on a combination of remote sensing methods. A key method, the measurement of changes in Earth's gravity via the GRACE satellite mission, requires...... a potentially large correction to account for the isostatic response of the solid Earth to ice-load changes since the Last Glacial Maximum. In this study, we combine glacial isostatic adjustment modelling with a new GPS dataset of solid Earth deformation for the southern Antarctic Peninsula to test the current...... understanding of ice history in this region. A sufficiently complete history of past ice-load change is required for glacial isostatic adjustment models to accurately predict the spatial variation of ongoing solid Earth deformation, once the independently-constrained effects of present-day ice mass loss have...

Solitary Waves of Ice Loss Detected in Greenland Crustal Motion

Science.gov (United States)

Adhikari, S.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E. Y.

2017-12-01

The annual cycle and secular trend of Greenland mass loading are well recorded in measurements of solid Earth deformation. While bedrock vertical displacements are in phase with loading as inferred from space observations, horizontal motions have received almost no attention. The horizontal bedrock displacements can potentially track the spatiotemporal detail of mass changes with great fidelity. Our analysis of Greenland crustal motion data reveals that a significant excitation of horizontal amplitudes occurs during the intense Greenland melting. A suite of space geodetic observations and climate reanalysis data cannot explain these large horizontal displacements. We discover that solitary seasonal waves of substantial mass transport traveled through Rink Glacier in 2010 and 2012. We deduce that intense summer melting enhanced either basal lubrication or shear softening, or both, causing the glacier to thin dynamically. The newly routed upstream sublglacial water was likely to be both retarded and inefficient, thus providing a causal mechanism for the prolonged ice transport to continue well into the winter months. As the climate continues to produce increasingly warmer spring and summer, amplified seasonal waves of mass transport may become ever more present in years of future observations. Increased frequency of amplified seasonal mass transport may ultimately strengthen the Greenland's dynamic ice mass loss, a component of the balance that will have important ramifications for sea level rise. This animation shows a solitary wave passing through Rink Glacier, Greenland, in 2012, recorded by the motion of a GPS station (circle with arrow). Darker blue colors within the flow indicate mass loss, red colors show mass gain. The star marks the center of the wave. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

GREENLAND ICE SHEET CHANGES FROM SPACE USING LASER, RADAR AND

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Louise Sandberg; Stenseng, Lars; Simonsen, Sebastian Bjerregaard

2010-01-01

The Greenland cryosphere is undergoing rapid changes, and these are documented by remote sensing from space. In this paper, an inversion scheme is used to derive mass changes from gravity changes observed by GRACE, and to derive the mean annual mass loss for the Greenland Ice Sheet, which...... is estimated to be 204 Gt/yr for the period 2002-2010. NASA’s laser altimetry satellite ICESat has provided elevation estimates of the ice sheet since January 2003. In order to be able to compare GRACE and ICESat derived results, the ICESat volume change must be converted into a mass change estimate. Therefore...

GNET detected an anomalous "spike" in ice loss in Greenland during the 2010 melting season

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bevis, Michael G; Wahr, John M; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas

’s instantaneous elastic response to contemporary losses in ice mass. Superimposed on longer term trends, an anomalous ‘pulse’ of uplift accumulated at many GNET stations during a ~5 month period in 2010, and we will show that this anomalous uplift is spatially correlated with the 2010 melting day anomaly (Tedesco...

Icebergs, sea ice, blue carbon and Antarctic climate feedbacks.

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, David K A; Fleming, Andrew; Sands, Chester J; Quartino, Maria Liliana; Deregibus, Dolores

2018-06-28

Sea ice, including icebergs, has a complex relationship with the carbon held within animals (blue carbon) in the polar regions. Sea-ice losses around West Antarctica's continental shelf generate longer phytoplankton blooms but also make it a hotspot for coastal iceberg disturbance. This matters because in polar regions ice scour limits blue carbon storage ecosystem services, which work as a powerful negative feedback on climate change (less sea ice increases phytoplankton blooms, benthic growth, seabed carbon and sequestration). This resets benthic biota succession (maintaining regional biodiversity) and also fertilizes the ocean with nutrients, generating phytoplankton blooms, which cascade carbon capture into seabed storage and burial by benthos. Small icebergs scour coastal shallows, whereas giant icebergs ground deeper, offshore. Significant benthic communities establish where ice shelves have disintegrated (giant icebergs calving), and rapidly grow to accumulate blue carbon storage. When 5000 km 2 giant icebergs calve, we estimate that they generate approximately 10 6 tonnes of immobilized zoobenthic carbon per year (t C yr -1 ). However, their collisions with the seabed crush and recycle vast benthic communities, costing an estimated 4 × 10 4  t C yr -1 We calculate that giant iceberg formation (ice shelf disintegration) has a net potential of approximately 10 6  t C yr -1 sequestration benefits as well as more widely known negative impacts.This article is part of the theme issue 'The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change'. © 2018 The Authors.

Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Changes and Impacts (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Nghiem, S. V.

2013-12-01

The extent of springtime Arctic perennial sea ice, important to preconditioning summer melt and to polar sunrise photochemistry, continues its precipitous reduction in the last decade marked by a record low in 2012, as the Bromine, Ozone, and Mercury Experiment (BROMEX) was conducted around Barrow, Alaska, to investigate impacts of sea ice reduction on photochemical processes, transport, and distribution in the polar environment. In spring 2013, there was further loss of perennial sea ice, as it was not observed in the ocean region adjacent to the Alaskan north coast, where there was a stretch of perennial sea ice in 2012 in the Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea. In contrast to the rapid and extensive loss of sea ice in the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice has a trend of a slight increase in the past three decades. Given the significant variability in time and in space together with uncertainties in satellite observations, the increasing trend of Antarctic sea ice may arguably be considered as having a low confidence level; however, there was no overall reduction of Antarctic sea ice extent anywhere close to the decreasing rate of Arctic sea ice. There exist publications presenting various factors driving changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. After a short review of these published factors, new observations and atmospheric, oceanic, hydrological, and geological mechanisms contributed to different behaviors of sea ice changes in the Arctic and Antarctic are presented. The contribution from of hydrologic factors may provide a linkage to and enhance thermal impacts from lower latitudes. While geological factors may affect the sensitivity of sea ice response to climate change, these factors can serve as the long-term memory in the system that should be exploited to improve future projections or predictions of sea ice changes. Furthermore, similarities and differences in chemical impacts of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice changes are discussed. Understanding sea ice changes and

Postglacial Rebound and Current Ice Loss Estimates from Space Geodesy: The New ICE-6G (VM5a) Global Model

Science.gov (United States)

Peltier, W. R.; Argus, D.; Drummond, R.; Moore, A. W.

2012-12-01

We compare, on a global basis, estimates of site velocity against predictions of the newly constructed postglacial rebound model ICE-6G (VM5a). This model is fit to observations of North American postglacial rebound thereby demonstrating that the ice sheet at last glacial maximum must have been, relative to ICE-5G,thinner in southern Manitoba, thinner near Yellowknife (northwest Territories), thicker in eastern and southern Quebec, and thicker along the British Columbia-Alberta border. The GPS based estimates of site velocity that we employ are more accurate than were previously available because they are based on GPS estimates of position as a function of time determined by incorporating satellite phase center variations [Desai et al. 2011]. These GPS estimates are constraining postglacial rebound in North America and Europe more tightly than ever before. In particular, given the high density of GPS sites in North America, and the fact that the velocity of the mass center (CM) of Earth is also more tightly constrained, the new model much more strongly constrains both the lateral extent of the proglacial forebulge and the rate at which this peripheral bulge (that was emplaced peripheral to the late Pleistocence Laurentia ice sheet) is presently collapsing. This fact proves to be important to the more accurate inference of the current rate of ice loss from both Greenland and Alaska based upon the time dependent gravity observations being provided by the GRACE satellite system. In West Antarctica we have also been able to significantly revise the previously prevalent ICE-5G deglaciation history so as to enable its predictions to be optimally consistent with GPS site velocities determined by connecting campaign WAGN measurements to those provided by observations from the permanent ANET sites. Ellsworth Land (south of the Antarctic peninsula), is observed to be rising at 6 ±3 mm/yr according to our latest analyses; the Ellsworth mountains themselves are observed to be

Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance: Distribution of Increased Mass Loss with Climate Warming; 2003-07 Versus 1992-2002

Science.gov (United States)

Zwally, H. Jay; Li, Jun; Benner, Anita C.; Beckley, Matthew; Cornejo, Helen G.; DiMarzio, John; Giovinetto, Mario B.; Neumann, Thomas A.; Robbins, John; Saba, Jack L.;

Can regional climate engineering save the summer Arctic sea ice?

Science.gov (United States)

Tilmes, S.; Jahn, Alexandra; Kay, Jennifer E.; Holland, Marika; Lamarque, Jean-Francois

2014-02-01

Rapid declines in summer Arctic sea ice extent are projected under high-forcing future climate scenarios. Regional Arctic climate engineering has been suggested as an emergency strategy to save the sea ice. Model simulations of idealized regional dimming experiments compared to a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission simulation demonstrate the importance of both local and remote feedback mechanisms to the surface energy budget in high latitudes. With increasing artificial reduction in incoming shortwave radiation, the positive surface albedo feedback from Arctic sea ice loss is reduced. However, changes in Arctic clouds and the strongly increasing northward heat transport both counteract the direct dimming effects. A 4 times stronger local reduction in solar radiation compared to a global experiment is required to preserve summer Arctic sea ice area. Even with regional Arctic dimming, a reduction in the strength of the oceanic meridional overturning circulation and a shut down of Labrador Sea deep convection are possible.

Eulerian method for ice crystal icing in turbofan engines

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Norde, Ellen

2017-01-01

The newer generations of high-bypass-ratio engines are susceptible to the ingestion of small ice crystals which may cause engine power loss or damage. The research presented in this thesis focusses on the development of a computational method for in-engine ice crystal accretion. The work has been

Satellite-derived submarine melt rates and mass balance (2011-2015) for Greenland's largest remaining ice tongues

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Nat; Straneo, Fiammetta; Heimbach, Patrick

2017-12-01

Ice-shelf-like floating extensions at the termini of Greenland glaciers are undergoing rapid changes with potential implications for the stability of upstream glaciers and the ice sheet as a whole. While submarine melting is recognized as a major contributor to mass loss, the spatial distribution of submarine melting and its contribution to the total mass balance of these floating extensions is incompletely known and understood. Here, we use high-resolution WorldView satellite imagery collected between 2011 and 2015 to infer the magnitude and spatial variability of melt rates under Greenland's largest remaining ice tongues - Nioghalvfjerdsbræ (79 North Glacier, 79N), Ryder Glacier (RG), and Petermann Glacier (PG). Submarine melt rates under the ice tongues vary considerably, exceeding 50 m a-1 near the grounding zone and decaying rapidly downstream. Channels, likely originating from upstream subglacial channels, give rise to large melt variations across the ice tongues. We compare the total melt rates to the influx of ice to the ice tongue to assess their contribution to the current mass balance. At Petermann Glacier and Ryder Glacier, we find that the combined submarine and aerial melt approximately balances the ice flux from the grounded ice sheet. At Nioghalvfjerdsbræ the total melt flux (14.2 ± 0.96 km3 a-1 w.e., water equivalent) exceeds the inflow of ice (10.2 ± 0.59 km3 a-1 w.e.), indicating present thinning of the ice tongue.

A FIRE-ACE/SHEBA Case Study of Mixed-Phase Arctic Boundary Layer Clouds: Entrainment Rate Limitations on Rapid Primary Ice Nucleation Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Fridlin, Ann; vanDiedenhoven, Bastiaan; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Avramov, Alexander; Mrowiec, Agnieszka; Morrison, Hugh; Zuidema, Paquita; Shupe, Matthew D.

2012-01-01

Observations of long-lived mixed-phase Arctic boundary layer clouds on 7 May 1998 during the First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Regional Experiment (FIRE)Arctic Cloud Experiment (ACE)Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) campaign provide a unique opportunity to test understanding of cloud ice formation. Under the microphysically simple conditions observed (apparently negligible ice aggregation, sublimation, and multiplication), the only expected source of new ice crystals is activation of heterogeneous ice nuclei (IN) and the only sink is sedimentation. Large-eddy simulations with size-resolved microphysics are initialized with IN number concentration N(sub IN) measured above cloud top, but details of IN activation behavior are unknown. If activated rapidly (in deposition, condensation, or immersion modes), as commonly assumed, IN are depleted from the well-mixed boundary layer within minutes. Quasi-equilibrium ice number concentration N(sub i) is then limited to a small fraction of overlying N(sub IN) that is determined by the cloud-top entrainment rate w(sub e) divided by the number-weighted ice fall speed at the surface v(sub f). Because w(sub c) 10 cm/s, N(sub i)/N(sub IN)<< 1. Such conditions may be common for this cloud type, which has implications for modeling IN diagnostically, interpreting measurements, and quantifying sensitivity to increasing N(sub IN) (when w(sub e)/v(sub f)< 1, entrainment rate limitations serve to buffer cloud system response). To reproduce observed ice crystal size distributions and cloud radar reflectivities with rapidly consumed IN in this case, the measured above-cloud N(sub IN) must be multiplied by approximately 30. However, results are sensitive to assumed ice crystal properties not constrained by measurements. In addition, simulations do not reproduce the pronounced mesoscale heterogeneity in radar reflectivity that is observed.

Can preferred atmospheric circulation patterns over the North-Atlantic-Eurasian region be associated with arctic sea ice loss?

Science.gov (United States)

Crasemann, Berit; Handorf, Dörthe; Jaiser, Ralf; Dethloff, Klaus; Nakamura, Tetsu; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

2017-12-01

In the framework of atmospheric circulation regimes, we study whether the recent Arctic sea ice loss and Arctic Amplification are associated with changes in the frequency of occurrence of preferred atmospheric circulation patterns during the extended winter season from December to March. To determine regimes we applied a cluster analysis to sea-level pressure fields from reanalysis data and output from an atmospheric general circulation model. The specific set up of the two analyzed model simulations for low and high ice conditions allows for attributing differences between the simulations to the prescribed sea ice changes only. The reanalysis data revealed two circulation patterns that occur more frequently for low Arctic sea ice conditions: a Scandinavian blocking in December and January and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern in February and March. An analysis of related patterns of synoptic-scale activity and 2 m temperatures provides a synoptic interpretation of the corresponding large-scale regimes. The regimes that occur more frequently for low sea ice conditions are resembled reasonably well by the model simulations. Based on those results we conclude that the detected changes in the frequency of occurrence of large-scale circulation patterns can be associated with changes in Arctic sea ice conditions.

Greenland Ice sheet mass balance from satellite and airborne altimetry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Bevis, M. G.; Wahr, J. M.

Ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is dominated by loss in the marginal areas. Dynamic induced ice loss and its associated ice surface lowering is often largest close to the glacier calving front and may vary from rates of tens of meters per years to a few meters per year over relatively...... short distances. Hence, high spatial resolution data are required to accurately estimate volume changes. Here, we estimate ice volume change rate of the Greenland ice sheet using data from Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimeter during 2003-2009 and CryoSat-2 data during 2010...

Development of a Capacitive Ice Sensor to Measure Ice Growth in Real Time

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiang Zhi

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the development of the capacitive sensor to measure the growth of ice on a fuel pipe surface in real time. The ice sensor consists of pairs of electrodes to detect the change in capacitance and a thermocouple temperature sensor to examine the ice formation situation. In addition, an environmental chamber was specially designed to control the humidity and temperature to simulate the ice formation conditions. From the humidity, a water film is formed on the ice sensor, which results in an increase in capacitance. Ice nucleation occurs, followed by the rapid formation of frost ice that decreases the capacitance suddenly. The capacitance is saturated. The developed ice sensor explains the ice growth providing information about the icing temperature in real time.

Development of a capacitive ice sensor to measure ice growth in real time.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhi, Xiang; Cho, Hyo Chang; Wang, Bo; Ahn, Cheol Hee; Moon, Hyeong Soon; Go, Jeung Sang

2015-03-19

This paper presents the development of the capacitive sensor to measure the growth of ice on a fuel pipe surface in real time. The ice sensor consists of pairs of electrodes to detect the change in capacitance and a thermocouple temperature sensor to examine the ice formation situation. In addition, an environmental chamber was specially designed to control the humidity and temperature to simulate the ice formation conditions. From the humidity, a water film is formed on the ice sensor, which results in an increase in capacitance. Ice nucleation occurs, followed by the rapid formation of frost ice that decreases the capacitance suddenly. The capacitance is saturated. The developed ice sensor explains the ice growth providing information about the icing temperature in real time.

Uplift rates from a new high-density GPS network in Palmer Land indicate significant late Holocene ice loss in the southwestern Weddell Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Wolstencroft, Martin; King, Matt A.; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; Bentley, Michael J.; Nield, Grace A.; King, Edward C.; McMillan, Malcolm; Shepherd, Andrew; Barletta, Valentina; Bordoni, Andrea; Riva, Riccardo E. M.; Didova, Olga; Gunter, Brian C.

2015-10-01

The measurement of ongoing ice-mass loss and associated melt water contribution to sea-level change from regions such as West Antarctica is dependent on a combination of remote sensing methods. A key method, the measurement of changes in Earth's gravity via the GRACE satellite mission, requires a potentially large correction to account for the isostatic response of the solid Earth to ice-load changes since the Last Glacial Maximum. In this study, we combine glacial isostatic adjustment modelling with a new GPS dataset of solid Earth deformation for the southern Antarctic Peninsula to test the current understanding of ice history in this region. A sufficiently complete history of past ice-load change is required for glacial isostatic adjustment models to accurately predict the spatial variation of ongoing solid Earth deformation, once the independently-constrained effects of present-day ice mass loss have been accounted for. Comparisons between the GPS data and glacial isostatic adjustment model predictions reveal a substantial misfit. The misfit is localized on the southwestern Weddell Sea, where current ice models under-predict uplift rates by approximately 2 mm yr-1. This under-prediction suggests that either the retreat of the ice sheet grounding line in this region occurred significantly later in the Holocene than currently assumed, or that the region previously hosted more ice than currently assumed. This finding demonstrates the need for further fieldwork to obtain direct constraints on the timing of Holocene grounding line retreat in the southwestern Weddell Sea and that GRACE estimates of ice sheet mass balance will be unreliable in this region until this is resolved.

Collaborations for Arctic Sea Ice Information and Tools

Science.gov (United States)

Sheffield Guy, L.; Wiggins, H. V.; Turner-Bogren, E. J.; Rich, R. H.

2017-12-01

The dramatic and rapid changes in Arctic sea ice require collaboration across boundaries, including between disciplines, sectors, institutions, and between scientists and decision-makers. This poster will highlight several projects that provide knowledge to advance the development and use of sea ice knowledge. Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (SIWO: https://www.arcus.org/search-program/siwo) - SIWO is a resource for Alaskan Native subsistence hunters and other interested stakeholders. SIWO provides weekly reports, during April-June, of sea ice conditions relevant to walrus in the northern Bering and southern Chukchi seas. Collaboration among scientists, Alaskan Native sea-ice experts, and the Eskimo Walrus Commission is fundamental to this project's success. Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN: https://www.arcus.org/sipn) - A collaborative, multi-agency-funded project focused on seasonal Arctic sea ice predictions. The goals of SIPN include: coordinate and evaluate Arctic sea ice predictions; integrate, assess, and guide observations; synthesize predictions and observations; and disseminate predictions and engage key stakeholders. The Sea Ice Outlook—a key activity of SIPN—is an open process to share and synthesize predictions of the September minimum Arctic sea ice extent and other variables. Other SIPN activities include workshops, webinars, and communications across the network. Directory of Sea Ice Experts (https://www.arcus.org/researchers) - ARCUS has undertaken a pilot project to develop a web-based directory of sea ice experts across institutions, countries, and sectors. The goal of the project is to catalyze networking between individual investigators, institutions, funding agencies, and other stakeholders interested in Arctic sea ice. Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH: https://www.arcus.org/search-program) - SEARCH is a collaborative program that advances research, synthesizes research findings, and broadly communicates the results to support

Range contraction and increasing isolation of a polar bear subpopulation in an era of sea-ice loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Laidre, Kristin L; Born, Erik W; Atkinson, Stephen N; Wiig, Øystein; Andersen, Liselotte W; Lunn, Nicholas J; Dyck, Markus; Regehr, Eric V; McGovern, Richard; Heagerty, Patrick

2018-02-01

Climate change is expected to result in range shifts and habitat fragmentation for many species. In the Arctic, loss of sea ice will reduce barriers to dispersal or eliminate movement corridors, resulting in increased connectivity or geographic isolation with sweeping implications for conservation. We used satellite telemetry, data from individually marked animals (research and harvest), and microsatellite genetic data to examine changes in geographic range, emigration, and interpopulation connectivity of the Baffin Bay (BB) polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) subpopulation over a 25-year period of sea-ice loss. Satellite telemetry collected from n  = 43 (1991-1995) and 38 (2009-2015) adult females revealed a significant contraction in subpopulation range size (95% bivariate normal kernel range) in most months and seasons, with the most marked reduction being a 70% decline in summer from 716,000 km 2 (SE 58,000) to 211,000 km 2 (SE 23,000) ( p  Bears in the 2000s were less likely to leave BB, with significant reductions in the numbers of bears moving into Davis Strait (DS) in winter and Lancaster Sound (LS) in summer. Harvest recoveries suggested both short and long-term fidelity to BB remained high over both periods (83-99% of marked bears remained in BB). Genetic analyses using eight polymorphic microsatellites confirmed a previously documented differentiation between BB, DS, and LS; yet weakly differentiated BB from Kane Basin (KB) for the first time. Our results provide the first multiple lines of evidence for an increasingly geographically and functionally isolated subpopulation of polar bears in the context of long-term sea-ice loss. This may be indicative of future patterns for other polar bear subpopulations under climate change.

History of sea ice in the Arctic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Polyak, Leonid; Alley, Richard B.; Andrews, John T.

2010-01-01

Arctic sea-ice extent and volume are declining rapidly. Several studies project that the Arctic Ocean may become seasonally ice-free by the year 2040 or even earlier. Putting this into perspective requires information on the history of Arctic sea-ice conditions through the geologic past. This inf......Arctic sea-ice extent and volume are declining rapidly. Several studies project that the Arctic Ocean may become seasonally ice-free by the year 2040 or even earlier. Putting this into perspective requires information on the history of Arctic sea-ice conditions through the geologic past...... Optimum, and consistently covered at least part of the Arctic Ocean for no less than the last 13–14 million years. Ice was apparently most widespread during the last 2–3 million years, in accordance with Earth’s overall cooler climate. Nevertheless, episodes of considerably reduced sea ice or even...

Neoglacial Antarctic sea-ice expansion driven by mid-Holocene retreat of the Ross Ice Shelf.

Science.gov (United States)

Bendle, J. A.; Newton, K.; Mckay, R. M.; Crosta, X.; Etourneau, J.; Anya, A. B.; Seki, O.; Golledge, N. R.; Bertler, N. A. N.; Willmott, V.; Schouten, S.; Riesselman, C. R.; Masse, G.; Dunbar, R. B.

2017-12-01

Recent decades have seen expanding Antarctic sea-ice coverage, coeval with thinning West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) ice shelves and the rapid freshening of surface and bottom waters along the Antarctic margin. The mid-Holocene Neoglacial transition represents the last comparable baseline shift in sea-ice behaviour. The drivers and feedbacks involved in both the recent and Holocene events are poorly understood and characterised by large proxy-model mismatches. We present new records of compound specific fatty acid isotope analyses (δ2H-FA), highly-branched isoprenoid alkenes (HBIs) TEX86L temperatures, grain-size, mass accumulations rates (MARs) and image analyses from a 171m Holocene sediment sequence from Site U1357 (IODP leg 318). In combination with published records we reconstruct Holocene changes in glacial meltwater, sedimentary inputs and sea-ice. The early Holocene (11 to 10 ka) is characterised by large fluctuations in inputs of deglacial meltwater and sediments and seismic evidence of downlapping material from the south, suggesting a dominating influence from glacial retreat of the local outlet glaciers. From 10 to 8 ka there is decreasing meltwater inputs, an onlapping drift and advection of material from the east. After ca. 8 ka positively correlated δ2H-FA and MARs infer that pulses of glacial melt correlate to stronger easterly currents, driving erosion of material from upstream banks and that the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) becomes a major influence. A large mid-Holocene meltwater pulse (preceded by warming TEX86L temperatures) is evident between ca. 6 to 4.5 ka, culminating in a rapid and permanent increase in sea-ice from 4.5 ka. This is coeval with cosmogenic nuclide evidence for a rapid thinning of the Antarctic ice sheet during the mid-Holocene (Hein et al., 2016). We suggest this represents a final major pulse of deglaciation from the Ross Ice Shelf, which initiates the Neoglacial, driving cool surface waters along the coast and greater sea-ice

Ice shelf fracture parameterization in an ice sheet model

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Sainan; Cornford, Stephen L.; Moore, John C.; Gladstone, Rupert; Zhao, Liyun

2017-11-01

Floating ice shelves exert a stabilizing force onto the inland ice sheet. However, this buttressing effect is diminished by the fracture process, which on large scales effectively softens the ice, accelerating its flow, increasing calving, and potentially leading to ice shelf breakup. We add a continuum damage model (CDM) to the BISICLES ice sheet model, which is intended to model the localized opening of crevasses under stress, the transport of those crevasses through the ice sheet, and the coupling between crevasse depth and the ice flow field and to carry out idealized numerical experiments examining the broad impact on large-scale ice sheet and shelf dynamics. In each case we see a complex pattern of damage evolve over time, with an eventual loss of buttressing approximately equivalent to halving the thickness of the ice shelf. We find that it is possible to achieve a similar ice flow pattern using a simple rule of thumb: introducing an enhancement factor ˜ 10 everywhere in the model domain. However, spatially varying damage (or equivalently, enhancement factor) fields set at the start of prognostic calculations to match velocity observations, as is widely done in ice sheet simulations, ought to evolve in time, or grounding line retreat can be slowed by an order of magnitude.

Ice-dynamic projections of the Greenland ice sheet in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. J. Fürst

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Continuing global warming will have a strong impact on the Greenland ice sheet in the coming centuries. During the last decade (2000–2010, both increased melt-water runoff and enhanced ice discharge from calving glaciers have contributed 0.6 ± 0.1 mm yr−1 to global sea-level rise, with a relative contribution of 60 and 40% respectively. Here we use a higher-order ice flow model, spun up to present day, to simulate future ice volume changes driven by both atmospheric and oceanic temperature changes. For these projections, the flow model accounts for runoff-induced basal lubrication and ocean warming-induced discharge increase at the marine margins. For a suite of 10 atmosphere and ocean general circulation models and four representative concentration pathway scenarios, the projected sea-level rise between 2000 and 2100 lies in the range of +1.4 to +16.6 cm. For two low emission scenarios, the projections are conducted up to 2300. Ice loss rates are found to abate for the most favourable scenario where the warming peaks in this century, allowing the ice sheet to maintain a geometry close to the present-day state. For the other moderate scenario, loss rates remain at a constant level over 300 years. In any scenario, volume loss is predominantly caused by increased surface melting as the contribution from enhanced ice discharge decreases over time and is self-limited by thinning and retreat of the marine margin, reducing the ice–ocean contact area. As confirmed by other studies, we find that the effect of enhanced basal lubrication on the volume evolution is negligible on centennial timescales. Our projections show that the observed rates of volume change over the last decades cannot simply be extrapolated over the 21st century on account of a different balance of processes causing ice loss over time. Our results also indicate that the largest source of uncertainty arises from the surface mass balance and the underlying climate change

Sea Ice Summer Camp: Bringing Together Arctic Sea Ice Modelers and Observers

Science.gov (United States)

Perovich, D. K.; Holland, M. M.

2016-12-01

The Arctic sea ice has undergone dramatic change and numerical models project this to continue for the foreseeable future. Understanding the mechanisms behind sea ice loss and its consequences for the larger Arctic and global systems is of critical importance if we are to anticipate and plan for the future. One impediment to progress is a disconnect between the observational and modeling communities. A sea ice summer camp was held in Barrow Alaska from 26 May to 1 June 2016 to overcome this impediment and better integrate the sea ice community. The 25 participants were a mix of modelers and observers from 13 different institutions at career stages from graduate student to senior scientist. The summer camp provided an accelerated program on sea ice observations and models and also fostered future collaborative interdisciplinary activities. Each morning was spent in the classroom with a daily lecture on an aspect of modeling or remote sensing followed by practical exercises. Topics included using models to assess sensitivity, to test hypotheses and to explore sources of uncertainty in future Arctic sea ice loss. The afternoons were spent on the ice making observations. There were four observational activities; albedo observations, ice thickness measurements, ice coring and physical properties, and ice morphology surveys. The last field day consisted of a grand challenge where the group formulated a hypothesis, developed an observational and modeling strategy to test the hypothesis, and then integrated the observations and model results. The impacts of changing sea ice are being felt today in Barrow Alaska. We opened a dialog with Barrow community members to further understand these changes. This included an evening discussion with two Barrow sea ice experts and a community presentation of our work in a public lecture at the Inupiat Heritage Center.

The Impact of Sea Ice Loss on Wave Dynamics and Coastal Erosion Along the Arctic Coast

Science.gov (United States)

Overeem, I.; Anderson, R. S.; Wobus, C. W.; Matell, N.; Urban, F. E.; Clow, G. D.; Stanton, T. P.

2010-12-01

The extent of Arctic sea ice has been shrinking rapidly over the past few decades, and attendant acceleration of erosion is now occurring along the Arctic coast. This both brings coastal infrastructure into harm’s way and promotes a complex response of the adjacent landscape to global change. We quantify the effects of declining sea ice extent on coastal erosion rates along a 75-km stretch of coastal permafrost bluffs adjacent to the Beaufort Sea, Alaska, where present-day erosion rates are among the highest in the world at ~14 m yr-1. Our own observations reinforce those of others, and suggest that the rate-limiting process is thermal erosion at the base of the several-meter tall bluffs. Here we focus on the interaction between the nearshore sea ice concentration, the location of the sea ice margin, and the fetch-limited, shallow water wave field, since these parameters ultimately control both sea surface temperatures and the height to which these waters can bathe the frozen bluffs. Thirty years of daily or bi-daily passive microwave data from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I satellites reveal that the nearshore open water season lengthened ~54 days over 1979-2009. The open water season, centered in August, expands more rapidly into the fall (September and October~0.92 day yr-1) than into the early summer (July~0.71 days yr-1). Average fetch, defined for our purposes as the distance from the sea ice margin to the coast over which the wind is blowing, increased by a factor 1.7 over the same time-span. Given these time series, we modeled daily nearshore wave heights during the open water season for each year, which we integrated to provide a quantitative metric for the annual exposure of the coastal bluffs to thermal erosion. This “annual wave exposure” increased by 250% during 1979-2009. In the same interval, coastal erosion rates reconstructed from satellite and aerial photo records show less acceleration. We attribute this to a disproportionate extension of the

The Response of Ice Sheets to Climate Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Snow, K.; Goldberg, D. N.; Holland, P. R.; Jordan, J. R.; Arthern, R. J.; Jenkins, A.

2017-12-01

West Antarctic Ice Sheet loss is a significant contributor to sea level rise. While the ice loss is thought to be triggered by fluctuations in oceanic heat at the ice shelf bases, ice sheet response to ocean variability remains poorly understood. Using a synchronously coupled ice-ocean model permitting grounding line migration, this study evaluates the response of an ice sheet to periodic variations in ocean forcing. Resulting oscillations in grounded ice volume amplitude is shown to grow as a nonlinear function of ocean forcing period. This implies that slower oscillations in climatic forcing are disproportionately important to ice sheets. The ice shelf residence time offers a critical time scale, above which the ice response amplitude is a linear function of ocean forcing period and below which it is quadratic. These results highlight the sensitivity of West Antarctic ice streams to perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at decadal time scales.

Insights into Spatial Sensitivities of Ice Mass Response to Environmental Change from the SeaRISE Ice Sheet Modeling Project I: Antarctica

Science.gov (United States)

Nowicki, Sophie; Bindschadler, Robert A.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Aschwanden, Andy; Bueler, Ed; Choi, Hyengu; Fastook, Jim; Granzow, Glen; Greve, Ralf; Gutowski, Gail;

Rapid bedrock uplift in the Antarctic Peninsula explained by viscoelastic response to recent ice unloading

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nield, Grace A.; Barletta, Valentina Roberta; Bordoni, Andrea

2014-01-01

Since 1995 several ice shelves in the Northern Antarctic Peninsula have collapsed and triggered ice-mass unloading, invoking a solid Earth response that has been recorded at continuous GPS (cGPS) stations. A previous attempt to model the observation of rapid uplift following the 2002 breakup...... of the Palmer cGPS station since 2002 cannot be explained by elastic deformation alone. We apply a viscoelastic model with linear Maxwell rheology to predict uplift since 1995 and test the fit to the Palmer cGPS time series, finding a well constrained upper mantle viscosity but less sensitivity to lithospheric...... thickness. We further constrain the best fitting Earth model by including six cGPS stations deployed after 2009 (the LARISSA network), with vertical velocities in the range 1.7 to 14.9 mm/yr. This results in a best fitting Earth model with lithospheric thickness of 100–140 km and upper mantle viscosity of 6...

Assessment of electrical stunning in fresh water of African Catfish (Clarias gariepinus) and chilling in ice water for loss of consciousness and sensibility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lambooij, E.; Kloosterboer, R.J.; Gerritzen, M.A.; Vis, van de J.W.

2006-01-01

The overall objective of the study was to evaluate loss of consciousness and sensibility after electrical stunning in fresh water and live chilling in ice water for slaughter of African catfish using measurement of electrical brain and heart activity. To provoke immediate loss of consciousness and

Changes in summer sea ice, albedo, and portioning of surface solar radiation in the Pacific sector of Arctic Ocean during 1982-2009

Science.gov (United States)

Lei, Ruibo; Tian-Kunze, Xiangshan; Leppäranta, Matti; Wang, Jia; Kaleschke, Lars; Zhang, Zhanhai

2016-08-01

SSM/I sea ice concentration and CLARA black-sky composite albedo were used to estimate sea ice albedo in the region 70°N-82°N, 130°W-180°W. The long-term trends and seasonal evolutions of ice concentration, composite albedo, and ice albedo were then obtained. In July-August 1982-2009, the linear trend of the composite albedo and the ice albedo was -0.069 and -0.046 units per decade, respectively. During 1 June to 19 August, melting of sea ice resulted in an increase of solar heat input to the ice-ocean system by 282 MJ·m-2 from 1982 to 2009. However, because of the counter-balancing effects of the loss of sea ice area and the enhanced ice surface melting, the trend of solar heat input to the ice was insignificant. The summer evolution of ice albedo matched the ice surface melting and ponding well at basin scale. The ice albedo showed a large difference between the multiyear and first-year ice because the latter melted completely by the end of a melt season. At the SHEBA geolocations, a distinct change in the ice albedo has occurred since 2007, because most of the multiyear ice has been replaced by first-year ice. A positive polarity in the Arctic Dipole Anomaly could be partly responsible for the rapid loss of summer ice within the study region in the recent years by bringing warmer air masses from the south and advecting more ice toward the north. Both these effects would enhance ice-albedo feedback.

Stochastic ice stream dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Mantelli, Elisa; Bertagni, Matteo Bernard; Ridolfi, Luca

2016-08-09

Ice streams are narrow corridors of fast-flowing ice that constitute the arterial drainage network of ice sheets. Therefore, changes in ice stream flow are key to understanding paleoclimate, sea level changes, and rapid disintegration of ice sheets during deglaciation. The dynamics of ice flow are tightly coupled to the climate system through atmospheric temperature and snow recharge, which are known exhibit stochastic variability. Here we focus on the interplay between stochastic climate forcing and ice stream temporal dynamics. Our work demonstrates that realistic climate fluctuations are able to (i) induce the coexistence of dynamic behaviors that would be incompatible in a purely deterministic system and (ii) drive ice stream flow away from the regime expected in a steady climate. We conclude that environmental noise appears to be crucial to interpreting the past behavior of ice sheets, as well as to predicting their future evolution.

Ice shelf fracture parameterization in an ice sheet model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Sun

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Floating ice shelves exert a stabilizing force onto the inland ice sheet. However, this buttressing effect is diminished by the fracture process, which on large scales effectively softens the ice, accelerating its flow, increasing calving, and potentially leading to ice shelf breakup. We add a continuum damage model (CDM to the BISICLES ice sheet model, which is intended to model the localized opening of crevasses under stress, the transport of those crevasses through the ice sheet, and the coupling between crevasse depth and the ice flow field and to carry out idealized numerical experiments examining the broad impact on large-scale ice sheet and shelf dynamics. In each case we see a complex pattern of damage evolve over time, with an eventual loss of buttressing approximately equivalent to halving the thickness of the ice shelf. We find that it is possible to achieve a similar ice flow pattern using a simple rule of thumb: introducing an enhancement factor ∼ 10 everywhere in the model domain. However, spatially varying damage (or equivalently, enhancement factor fields set at the start of prognostic calculations to match velocity observations, as is widely done in ice sheet simulations, ought to evolve in time, or grounding line retreat can be slowed by an order of magnitude.

Mass loss of Greenland from GRACE, IceSat and CryoSat

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Forsberg, René; Sørensen, Louise Sandberg; Fredenslund Levinsen, Joanna

2013-01-01

CryoSat data over the Greenland Ice Sheet are used to continue elevation height change data over the Greenland ice sheet, following a decade of detailed monitoring of ice sheet changes with GRACE and IceSat. The combination and validation of the different data for measuring changes is quantified...... by using available airborne lidar data from IceBridge and CryoVEx. There is a special challenge of using CryoSat as fill-in between EnviSat and Sentinel-3 for the longterm measurements of surface elevation changes, a key essential climate variable in the ESA Climate Change Initiative. Another challenge...... is the joint utilization of both altimetry and gravity field change measurements for consistent estimates of regional change patterns. In the paper we analyze GRACE, IceSat and CryoSat data since 2003, and present consistent estimates of overall mass changes with average values around -220 GT/year, showing...

Reduced probability of ice-free summers for 1.5 °C compared to 2 °C warming

Science.gov (United States)

Jahn, Alexandra

2018-05-01

Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly with increasing global temperatures. However, it is largely unknown how Arctic summer sea-ice impacts would vary under the 1.5 °C Paris target compared to scenarios with greater warming. Using the Community Earth System Model, I show that constraining warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2.0 °C reduces the probability of any summer ice-free conditions by 2100 from 100% to 30%. It also reduces the late-century probability of an ice cover below the 2012 record minimum from 98% to 55%. For warming above 2 °C, frequent ice-free conditions can be expected, potentially for several months per year. Although sea-ice loss is generally reversible for decreasing temperatures, sea ice will only recover to current conditions if atmospheric CO2 is reduced below present-day concentrations. Due to model biases, these results provide a lower bound on summer sea-ice impacts, but clearly demonstrate the benefits of constraining warming to 1.5 °C.

Improving Surface Mass Balance Over Ice Sheets and Snow Depth on Sea Ice

Science.gov (United States)

Koenig, Lora Suzanne; Box, Jason; Kurtz, Nathan

2013-01-01

Surface mass balance (SMB) over ice sheets and snow on sea ice (SOSI) are important components of the cryosphere. Large knowledge gaps remain in scientists' abilities to monitor SMB and SOSI, including insufficient measurements and difficulties with satellite retrievals. On ice sheets, snow accumulation is the sole mass gain to SMB, and meltwater runoff can be the dominant single loss factor in extremely warm years such as 2012. SOSI affects the growth and melt cycle of the Earth's polar sea ice cover. The summer of 2012 saw the largest satellite-recorded melt area over the Greenland ice sheet and the smallest satellite-recorded Arctic sea ice extent, making this meeting both timely and relevant.

Arctic sea ice decline: Projected changes in timing and extent of sea ice in the Bering and Chukchi Seas

Science.gov (United States)

Douglas, David C.

2010-01-01

The Arctic region is warming faster than most regions of the world due in part to increasing greenhouse gases and positive feedbacks associated with the loss of snow and ice cover. One consequence has been a rapid decline in Arctic sea ice over the past 3 decades?a decline that is projected to continue by state-of-the-art models. Many stakeholders are therefore interested in how global warming may change the timing and extent of sea ice Arctic-wide, and for specific regions. To inform the public and decision makers of anticipated environmental changes, scientists are striving to better understand how sea ice influences ecosystem structure, local weather, and global climate. Here, projected changes in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are examined because sea ice influences the presence of, or accessibility to, a variety of local resources of commercial and cultural value. In this study, 21st century sea ice conditions in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are based on projections by 18 general circulation models (GCMs) prepared for the fourth reporting period by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. Sea ice projections are analyzed for each of two IPCC greenhouse gas forcing scenarios: the A1B `business as usual? scenario and the A2 scenario that is somewhat more aggressive in its CO2 emissions during the second half of the century. A large spread of uncertainty among projections by all 18 models was constrained by creating model subsets that excluded GCMs that poorly simulated the 1979-2008 satellite record of ice extent and seasonality. At the end of the 21st century (2090-2099), median sea ice projections among all combinations of model ensemble and forcing scenario were qualitatively similar. June is projected to experience the least amount of sea ice loss among all months. For the Chukchi Sea, projections show extensive ice melt during July and ice-free conditions during August, September, and October by the end of the century, with high agreement

The influence of regional Arctic sea-ice decline on stratospheric and tropospheric circulation

Science.gov (United States)

McKenna, Christine; Bracegirdle, Thomas; Shuckburgh, Emily; Haynes, Peter

2016-04-01

Arctic sea-ice extent has rapidly declined over the past few decades, and most climate models project a continuation of this trend during the 21st century in response to greenhouse gas forcing. A number of recent studies have shown that this sea-ice loss induces vertically propagating Rossby waves, which weaken the stratospheric polar vortex and increase the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). SSWs have been shown to increase the probability of a negative NAO in the following weeks, thereby driving anomalous weather conditions over Europe and other mid-latitude regions. In contrast, other studies have shown that Arctic sea-ice loss strengthens the polar vortex, increasing the probability of a positive NAO. Sun et al. (2015) suggest these conflicting results may be due to the region of sea-ice loss considered. They find that if only regions within the Arctic Circle are considered in sea-ice projections, the polar vortex weakens; if only regions outwith the Arctic Circle are considered, the polar vortex strengthens. This is because the anomalous Rossby waves forced in the former/latter scenario constructively/destructively interfere with climatological Rossby waves, thus enhancing/suppressing upward wave propagation. In this study, we investigate whether Sun et al.'s results are robust to a different model. We also divide the regions of sea-ice loss they considered into further sub-regions, in order to examine the regional differences in more detail. We do this by using the intermediate complexity climate model, IGCM4, which has a well resolved stratosphere and does a good job of representing stratospheric processes. Several simulations are run in atmosphere only mode, where one is a control experiment and the others are perturbation experiments. In the control run annually repeating historical mean surface conditions are imposed at the lower boundary, whereas in each perturbation run the model is forced by SST perturbations imposed in a specific

The importance of rapid, disturbance-induced losses in carbon management and sequestration

Science.gov (United States)

Breshears, D.D.; Allen, Craig D.

2002-01-01

Management of terrestrial carbon fluxes is being proposed as a means of increasing the amount of carbon sequestered in the terrestrial biosphere. This approach is generally viewed only as an interim strategy for the coming decades while other longer-term strategies are developed and implemented — the most important being the direct reduction of carbon emissions. We are concerned that the potential for rapid, disturbance-induced losses may be much greater than is currently appreciated, especially by the decision-making community. Here we wish to: (1) highlight the complex and threshold-like nature of disturbances — such as fire and drought, as well as the erosion associated with each — that could lead to carbon losses; (2) note the global extent of ecosystems that are at risk of such disturbance-induced carbon losses; and (3) call for increased consideration of and research on the mechanisms by which large, rapid disturbance-induced losses of terrestrial carbon could occur. Our lack of ability as a scientific community to predict such ecosystem dynamics is precluding the effective consideration of these processes into strategies and policies related to carbon management and sequestration. Consequently, scientists need to do more to improve quantification of these potential losses and to integrate them into sound, sustainable policy options.

The De-Icing Comparison Experiment (D-ICE): A campaign for improving data retention rates of radiometric measurements under icing conditions in cold regions

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, C. J.; Morris, S. M.

2017-12-01

Longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes are fundamental quantities regularly observed globally using broadband radiometers. In cold climates, frost, rime, snow and ice (collectively, "icing") frequently builds up on sensor windows, contaminating measurements. Since icing occurs under particular meteorological conditions, associated data losses constitutes a climatological bias. Furthermore, the signal caused by ice is difficult to distinguish from that of clouds, hampering efforts to identify contaminated from real data in post-processing. Because of the sensitivity of radiometers to internal temperature instabilities, there are limitations to using heat as a de-icing method. The magnitude of this problem is indicated by the large number of research institutions and commercial vendors that have developed various de-icing strategies. The D-ICE campaign has been designed to bring together a large number of currently available systems to quantitatively evaluate and compare ice-migration strategies and also to characterize the potentially adverse effects of the techniques themselves. For D-ICE, a variety of automated approaches making use of ventilation, heating, modified housings and alcohol spray are being evaluated alongside standard units operating with only the regularly scheduled manual cleaning by human operators at the NOAA Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) station in Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska. Previous experience within the BSRN community suggests that aspiration of ambient air alone may be sufficient to maintain ice-free radiometers without increasing measurement uncertainty during icing conditions, forming the main guiding hypothesis of the experiment. Icing on the sensors is monitored visually using cameras recording images every 15 minutes and quantitatively using an icing probe and met station. The effects of applied heat on infrared loss in pyranometers will be analyzed and the integrated effect of icing on monthly averages will be

Controls on Arctic sea ice from first-year and multi-year ice survival rates

Science.gov (United States)

Armour, K.; Bitz, C. M.; Hunke, E. C.; Thompson, L.

2009-12-01

The recent decrease in Arctic sea ice cover has transpired with a significant loss of multi-year (MY) ice. The transition to an Arctic that is populated by thinner first-year (FY) sea ice has important implications for future trends in area and volume. We develop a reduced model for Arctic sea ice with which we investigate how the survivability of FY and MY ice control various aspects of the sea-ice system. We demonstrate that Arctic sea-ice area and volume behave approximately as first-order autoregressive processes, which allows for a simple interpretation of September sea-ice in which its mean state, variability, and sensitivity to climate forcing can be described naturally in terms of the average survival rates of FY and MY ice. This model, used in concert with a sea-ice simulation that traces FY and MY ice areas to estimate the survival rates, reveals that small trends in the ice survival rates explain the decline in total Arctic ice area, and the relatively larger loss of MY ice area, over the period 1979-2006. Additionally, our model allows for a calculation of the persistence time scales of September area and volume anomalies. A relatively short memory time scale for ice area (~ 1 year) implies that Arctic ice area is nearly in equilibrium with long-term climate forcing at all times, and therefore observed trends in area are a clear indication of a changing climate. A longer memory time scale for ice volume (~ 5 years) suggests that volume can be out of equilibrium with climate forcing for long periods of time, and therefore trends in ice volume are difficult to distinguish from its natural variability. With our reduced model, we demonstrate the connection between memory time scale and sensitivity to climate forcing, and discuss the implications that a changing memory time scale has on the trajectory of ice area and volume in a warming climate. Our findings indicate that it is unlikely that a “tipping point” in September ice area and volume will be

Rapid changes in surface water carbonate chemistry during Antarctic sea ice melt

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Elizabeth M.; Bakker, Dorothee C. E.; Venables, Hugh J.; Whitehouse, Michael J.; Korb, Rebecca E.; Watson, Andrew J.

2010-11-01

ABSTRACT The effect of sea ice melt on the carbonate chemistry of surface waters in the Weddell-Scotia Confluence, Southern Ocean, was investigated during January 2008. Contrasting concentrations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), total alkalinity (TA) and the fugacity of carbon dioxide (fCO2) were observed in and around the receding sea ice edge. The precipitation of carbonate minerals such as ikaite (CaCO3.6H2O) in sea ice brine has the net effect of decreasing DIC and TA and increasing the fCO2 in the brine. Deficits in DIC up to 12 +/- 3 μmol kg-1 in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) were consistent with the release of DIC-poor brines to surface waters during sea ice melt. Biological utilization of carbon was the dominant processes and accounted for 41 +/- 1 μmol kg-1 of the summer DIC deficit. The data suggest that the combined effects of biological carbon uptake and the precipitation of carbonates created substantial undersaturation in fCO2 of 95 μatm in the MIZ during summer sea ice melt. Further work is required to improve the understanding of ikaite chemistry in Antarctic sea ice and its importance for the sea ice carbon pump.

The Global and Local Climatic Response to the Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Science.gov (United States)

Huybers, K. M.; Singh, H.; Steiger, N. J.; Frierson, D. M.; Steig, E. J.; Bitz, C. M.

2014-12-01

Glaciologists have suggested that a relatively small external forcing may compromise the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Further, there is compelling physical evidence that the WAIS has collapsed in the past, at times when the mean global temperature was only a few degrees warmer than it is today. In addition to a rapid increase in global sea level, the collapse of the WAIS could also affect the global circulation of the atmosphere. Ice sheets are some of the largest topographic features on Earth, causing large regional anomalies in albedo and radiative balance. Our work uses idealized aquaplanet models in tandem with a fully coupled ocean/atmosphere/sea-ice model (CCSM4) to compare the atmospheric, radiative, and oceanic response to a complete loss of the WAIS. Initial findings indicate that the loss of the WAIS leads to a weakening and equator-ward shift of the zonal winds, a development of strong zonal asymmetries in the meridional wind, and a northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. We aim to characterize how the local and global climate is affected by the presence of the WAIS, and how changes in the distribution of Southern Hemisphere ice may be represented in the proxy record.

Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Science.gov (United States)

Hofer, Stefan; Tedstone, Andrew J; Fettweis, Xavier; Bamber, Jonathan L

2017-06-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s. This has been due to both increased ice discharge into the ocean and melting at the surface, with the latter being the dominant contribution. This change in state has been attributed to rising temperatures and a decrease in surface albedo. We show, using satellite data and climate model output, that the abrupt reduction in surface mass balance since about 1995 can be attributed largely to a coincident trend of decreasing summer cloud cover enhancing the melt-albedo feedback. Satellite observations show that, from 1995 to 2009, summer cloud cover decreased by 0.9 ± 0.3% per year. Model output indicates that the GrIS summer melt increases by 27 ± 13 gigatons (Gt) per percent reduction in summer cloud cover, principally because of the impact of increased shortwave radiation over the low albedo ablation zone. The observed reduction in cloud cover is strongly correlated with a state shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation promoting anticyclonic conditions in summer and suggests that the enhanced surface mass loss from the GrIS is driven by synoptic-scale changes in Arctic-wide atmospheric circulation.

Sensitivity Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends and Statistical Projections Using Satellite Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ge Peng

2018-02-01

Full Text Available An ice-free Arctic summer would have pronounced impacts on global climate, coastal habitats, national security, and the shipping industry. Rapid and accelerated Arctic sea ice loss has placed the reality of an ice-free Arctic summer even closer to the present day. Accurate projection of the first Arctic ice-free summer year is extremely important for business planning and climate change mitigation, but the projection can be affected by many factors. Using an inter-calibrated satellite sea ice product, this article examines the sensitivity of decadal trends of Arctic sea ice extent and statistical projections of the first occurrence of an ice-free Arctic summer. The projection based on the linear trend of the last 20 years of data places the first Arctic ice-free summer year at 2036, 12 years earlier compared to that of the trend over the last 30 years. The results from a sensitivity analysis of six commonly used curve-fitting models show that the projected timings of the first Arctic ice-free summer year tend to be earlier for exponential, Gompertz, quadratic, and linear with lag fittings, and later for linear and log fittings. Projections of the first Arctic ice-free summer year by all six statistical models appear to converge to the 2037 ± 6 timeframe, with a spread of 17 years, and the earliest first ice-free Arctic summer year at 2031.

Pan-Arctic sea ice-algal chl a biomass and suitable habitat are largely underestimated for multiyear ice.

Science.gov (United States)

Lange, Benjamin A; Flores, Hauke; Michel, Christine; Beckers, Justin F; Bublitz, Anne; Casey, John Alec; Castellani, Giulia; Hatam, Ido; Reppchen, Anke; Rudolph, Svenja A; Haas, Christian

2017-11-01

There is mounting evidence that multiyear ice (MYI) is a unique component of the Arctic Ocean and may play a more important ecological role than previously assumed. This study improves our understanding of the potential of MYI as a suitable habitat for sea ice algae on a pan-Arctic scale. We sampled sea ice cores from MYI and first-year sea ice (FYI) within the Lincoln Sea during four consecutive spring seasons. This included four MYI hummocks with a mean chl a biomass of 2.0 mg/m 2 , a value significantly higher than FYI and MYI refrozen ponds. Our results support the hypothesis that MYI hummocks can host substantial ice-algal biomass and represent a reliable ice-algal habitat due to the (quasi-) permanent low-snow surface of these features. We identified an ice-algal habitat threshold value for calculated light transmittance of 0.014%. Ice classes and coverage of suitable ice-algal habitat were determined from snow and ice surveys. These ice classes and associated coverage of suitable habitat were applied to pan-Arctic CryoSat-2 snow and ice thickness data products. This habitat classification accounted for the variability of the snow and ice properties and showed an areal coverage of suitable ice-algal habitat within the MYI-covered region of 0.54 million km 2 (8.5% of total ice area). This is 27 times greater than the areal coverage of 0.02 million km 2 (0.3% of total ice area) determined using the conventional block-model classification, which assigns single-parameter values to each grid cell and does not account for subgrid cell variability. This emphasizes the importance of accounting for variable snow and ice conditions in all sea ice studies. Furthermore, our results indicate the loss of MYI will also mean the loss of reliable ice-algal habitat during spring when food is sparse and many organisms depend on ice-algae. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A tale of two polar bear populations: Ice habitat, harvest, and body condition

Science.gov (United States)

Rode, Karyn D.; Peacock, Elizabeth; Taylor, Mitchell K.; Stirling, Ian; Born, Erik W.; Laidre, Kristin L.; Wiig, Øystein

2012-01-01

One of the primary mechanisms by which sea ice loss is expected to affect polar bears is via reduced body condition and growth resulting from reduced access to prey. To date, negative effects of sea ice loss have been documented for two of 19 recognized populations. Effects of sea ice loss on other polar bear populations that differ in harvest rate, population density, and/or feeding ecology have been assumed, but empirical support, especially quantitative data on population size, demography, and/or body condition spanning two or more decades, have been lacking. We examined trends in body condition metrics of captured bears and relationships with summertime ice concentration between 1977 and 2010 for the Baffin Bay (BB) and Davis Strait (DS) polar bear populations. Polar bears in these regions occupy areas with annual sea ice that has decreased markedly starting in the 1990s. Despite differences in harvest rate, population density, sea ice concentration, and prey base, polar bears in both populations exhibited positive relationships between body condition and summertime sea ice cover during the recent period of sea ice decline. Furthermore, females and cubs exhibited relationships with sea ice that were not apparent during the earlier period (1977–1990s) when sea ice loss did not occur. We suggest that declining body condition in BB may be a result of recent declines in sea ice habitat. In DS, high population density and/or sea ice loss, may be responsible for the declines in body condition.

A rapid transition from ice covered CO2–rich waters to a biologically mediated CO2 sink in the eastern Weddell Gyre

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Geibert

2008-09-01

Full Text Available Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW, locally called Warm Deep Water (WDW, enters the Weddell Gyre in the southeast, roughly at 25° E to 30° E. In December 2002 and January 2003 we studied the effect of entrainment of WDW on the fugacity of carbon dioxide (fCO2 and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC in Weddell Sea surface waters. Ultimately the fCO2 difference across the sea surface drives air-sea fluxes of CO2. Deep CTD sections and surface transects of fCO2 were made along the Prime Meridian, a northwest-southeast section, and along 17° E to 23° E during cruise ANT XX/2 on FS Polarstern. Upward movement and entrainment of WDW into the winter mixed layer had significantly increased DIC and fCO2 below the sea ice along 0° W and 17° E to 23° E, notably in the southern Weddell Gyre. Nonetheless, the ice cover largely prevented outgassing of CO2 to the atmosphere. During and upon melting of the ice, biological activity rapidly reduced surface water fCO2 by up to 100 μatm, thus creating a sink for atmospheric CO2. Despite the tendency of the surfacing WDW to cause CO2 supersaturation, the Weddell Gyre may well be a CO2 sink on an annual basis due to this effective mechanism involving ice cover and ensuing biological fCO2 reduction. Dissolution of calcium carbonate (CaCO3 in melting sea ice may play a minor role in this rapid reduction of surface water fCO2.

Reconciling records of ice streaming and ice margin retreat to produce a palaeogeographic reconstruction of the deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet

Science.gov (United States)

Margold, Martin; Stokes, Chris R.; Clark, Chris D.

2018-06-01

rates markedly increased after the YD and the ice sheet became limited to the Canadian Shield. This hard-bed substrate brought a change in the character of ice streaming, which became less frequent but generated much broader terrestrial ice streams. The final collapse of the ice sheet saw a series of small ephemeral ice streams that resulted from the rapidly changing ice sheet geometry in and around Hudson Bay. Our reconstruction indicates that the LIS underwent a transition from a topographically-controlled ice drainage network at the LGM to an ice drainage network characterised by less frequent, broad ice streams during the later stages of deglaciation. These deglacial ice streams are mostly interpreted as a reaction to localised ice-dynamical forcing (flotation and calving of the ice front in glacial lakes and transgressing sea; basal de-coupling due to large amount of meltwater reaching the bed, debuttressing due to rapid changes in ice sheet geometry) rather than as conveyors of excess mass from the accumulation area of the ice sheet. At an ice sheet scale, the ice stream drainage network became less widespread and less efficient with the decreasing size of the deglaciating ice sheet, the final elimination of which was mostly driven by surface melt.

Rapid earthquake hazard and loss assessment for Euro-Mediterranean region

Science.gov (United States)

Erdik, Mustafa; Sesetyan, Karin; Demircioglu, Mine; Hancilar, Ufuk; Zulfikar, Can; Cakti, Eser; Kamer, Yaver; Yenidogan, Cem; Tuzun, Cuneyt; Cagnan, Zehra; Harmandar, Ebru

2010-10-01

The almost-real time estimation of ground shaking and losses after a major earthquake in the Euro-Mediterranean region was performed in the framework of the Joint Research Activity 3 (JRA-3) component of the EU FP6 Project entitled "Network of Research Infra-structures for European Seismology, NERIES". This project consists of finding the most likely location of the earthquake source by estimating the fault rupture parameters on the basis of rapid inversion of data from on-line regional broadband stations. It also includes an estimation of the spatial distribution of selected site-specific ground motion parameters at engineering bedrock through region-specific ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) or physical simulation of ground motion. By using the Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine (ELER) software, the multi-level methodology developed for real time estimation of losses is capable of incorporating regional variability and sources of uncertainty stemming from GMPEs, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships.

Ice on wind power plants. Detection, frequency, minimizing risk for injuries to humans and production loss; Is paa vindkraftverk. Detektering, utbredning, personskaderiskminimering och produktionsbortfall

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Westerlund, Rolf (HoloOptics, Stockholm (Sweden))

2009-02-15

The project had three different objectives:- To calibrate an icing sensor, developed with the support of Vindforsk, according to the amount of ice on the rotor blades.- To determine at which degree of icing measures has to be taken to reduce the risk of public health hazards due to ice throws.- To give a general indication of the performance losses due to icing In the study a coastal shore based turbine (Vestas V44, situated close to Haernoesand in the northern Sweden) was used as the test object, a turbine placed at 176 m above sea level and 4 km away from the open sea. The turbine is also close to an attractive alpine ski-slope. Due to this the plant is closed 2-3 weeks per year to reduce the risk of ice throw. In the study two ice sensors were used, one with automatic de-icing and one without de-icing. The icing signal was sent to the operator and HoloOptics via SMS. The SMS sender was also connected to a temperature sensor. Furthermore, 12 'IceMarkers' were mounted on one of the rotor blades to verify the distribution of ice. To log the output of the turbine a logger was installed. The logger measured the 10 minutes mean power output. Wind-speed, wind-direction and temperatures were available from a mast located at a distance of 400 m to the wind turbine. Study period: March-December 2008 of which, at this location, four month are prone to icing. By the use of the IceMarkers it was found that shortly after the icing began the whole blade was relatively simultaneous covered with, minimum, a thin layer of ice (maybe less than 0,1 mm in thickness). The distribution of ice on the blade was verified by the use of a flash and a camera. However it was found to be difficult to verify at times with fog or precipitation. When temperatures varied around zero C the relation between indication and actual icing was less obvious. Sometimes the blades became/were de-iced without any indication from the corresponding indicator. The indicators themselves, without any

An improved bathymetry compilation for the Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica, to inform ice-sheet and ocean models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. G. C. Graham

2011-02-01

Full Text Available The southern Bellingshausen Sea (SBS is a rapidly-changing part of West Antarctica, where oceanic and atmospheric warming has led to the recent basal melting and break-up of the Wilkins ice shelf, the dynamic thinning of fringing glaciers, and sea-ice reduction. Accurate sea-floor morphology is vital for understanding the continued effects of each process upon changes within Antarctica's ice sheets. Here we present a new bathymetric grid for the SBS compiled from shipborne multibeam echo-sounder, spot-sounding and sub-ice measurements. The 1-km grid is the most detailed compilation for the SBS to-date, revealing large cross-shelf troughs, shallow banks, and deep inner-shelf basins that continue inland of coastal ice shelves. The troughs now serve as pathways which allow warm deep water to access the ice sheet in the SBS. Our dataset highlights areas still lacking bathymetric constraint, as well as regions for further investigation, including the likely routes of palaeo-ice streams. The new compilation is a major improvement upon previous grids and will be a key dataset for incorporating into simulations of ocean circulation, ice-sheet change and history. It will also serve forecasts of ice stability and future sea-level contributions from ice loss in West Antarctica, required for the next IPCC assessment report in 2013.

High Artic Glaciers and Ice Caps Ice Mass Change from GRACE, Regional Climate Model Output and Altimetry.

Science.gov (United States)

Ciraci, E.; Velicogna, I.; Fettweis, X.; van den Broeke, M. R.

2016-12-01

The Arctic hosts more than the 75% of the ice covered regions outside from Greenland and Antarctica. Available observations show that increased atmospheric temperatures during the last century have contributed to a substantial glaciers retreat in all these regions. We use satellite gravimetry by the NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and apply a least square fit mascon approach to calculate time series of ice mass change for the period 2002-2016. Our estimates show that arctic glaciers have constantly contributed to the sea level rise during the entire observation period with a mass change of -170+/-20 Gt/yr equivalent to the 80% of the total ice mass change from the world Glacier and Ice Caps (GIC) excluding the Ice sheet peripheral GIC, which we calculated to be -215+/-32 GT/yr, with an acceleration of 9+/-4 Gt/yr2. The Canadian Archipelago is the main contributor to the total mass depletion with an ice mass trend of -73+/-9 Gt/yr and a significant acceleration of -7+/-3 Gt/yr2. The increasing mass loss is mainly determined by melting glaciers located in the northern part of the archipelago.In order to investigate the physical processes driving the observed ice mass loss we employ satellite altimetry and surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from Regional climate model outputs available for the same time period covered by the gravimetry data. We use elevation data from the NASA ICESat (2003-2009) and ESA CryoSat-2 (2010-2016) missions to estimate ice elevation changes. We compare GRACE ice mass estimates with time series of surface mass balance from the Regional Climate Model (RACMO-2) and the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) and determine the portion of the total mass change explained by the SMB signal. We find that in Iceland and in the and the Canadian Archipelago the SMB signal explains most of the observed mass changes, suggesting that ice discharge may play a secondary role here. In other region, e.g. in Svalbar, the SMB signal

High resolution modelling of the decreasing Arctic sea ice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, K. S.; Rasmussen, T. A. S.; Blüthgen, Jonas

2012-01-01

The Arctic sea ice cover has been rapidly decreasing and thinning over the last decade, with minimum ice extent in 2007 and almost as low extent in 2011. This study investigates two aspects of the decreasing ice cover; first the large scale thinning and changing dynamics of the polar sea ice, and...

Temporal constraints on future accumulation-area loss of a major Arctic ice cap due to climate change (Vestfonna, Svalbard).

Science.gov (United States)

Möller, Marco; Schneider, Christoph

2015-01-28

Arctic glaciers and ice caps are major contributors to past, present and future sea-level fluctuations. Continued global warming may eventually lead to the equilibrium line altitudes of these ice masses rising above their highest points, triggering unstoppable downwasting. This may feed future sea-level rise considerably. We here present projections for the timing of equilibrium-line loss at the major Arctic ice cap Vestfonna, Svalbard. The projections are based on spatially distributed climatic mass balance modelling driven by the outputs of multiple climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. Results indicate strongly decreasing climatic mass balances over the 21(st) century for all RCPs considered. Glacier-wide mass-balance rates will drop down to -4 m a(-1) w.e. (water equivalent) at a maximum. The date at which the equilibrium line rises above the summit of Vestfonna (630 m above sea level) is calculated to range between 2040 and 2150, depending on scenario.

Cosmic ray spectrum and composition from three years of IceTop and IceCube

Science.gov (United States)

Rawlins, K.; IceCube Collaboration

2016-05-01

IceTop is the surface component of the IceCube Observatory, composed of frozen water tanks at the top of IceCube’s strings. Data from this detector can be analyzed in different ways with the goal of measuring cosmic ray spectrum and composition. The shower size S125 from IceTop alone can be used as a proxy for primary energy, and unfolded into an all-particle spectrum. In addition, S125 from the surface can be combined with high-energy muon energy loss information from the deep IceCube detector for those air showers which pass through both. Using these coincident events in a complementary analysis, both the spectrum and mass composition of primary cosmic rays can be extracted in parallel using a neural network. Both of these analyses have been performed on three years of IceTop and IceCube data. Both all-particle spectra as well as individual spectra for elemental groups are presented.

Validation of 3-D Ice Accretion Measurement Methodology for Experimental Aerodynamic Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Broeren, Andy P.; Addy, Harold E., Jr.; Lee, Sam; Monastero, Marianne C.

2015-01-01

Determining the adverse aerodynamic effects due to ice accretion often relies on dry-air wind-tunnel testing of artificial, or simulated, ice shapes. Recent developments in ice-accretion documentation methods have yielded a laser-scanning capability that can measure highly three-dimensional (3-D) features of ice accreted in icing wind tunnels. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the aerodynamic accuracy of ice-accretion simulations generated from laser-scan data. Ice-accretion tests were conducted in the NASA Icing Research Tunnel using an 18-in. chord, two-dimensional (2-D) straight wing with NACA 23012 airfoil section. For six ice-accretion cases, a 3-D laser scan was performed to document the ice geometry prior to the molding process. Aerodynamic performance testing was conducted at the University of Illinois low-speed wind tunnel at a Reynolds number of 1.8 × 10(exp 6) and a Mach number of 0.18 with an 18-in. chord NACA 23012 airfoil model that was designed to accommodate the artificial ice shapes. The ice-accretion molds were used to fabricate one set of artificial ice shapes from polyurethane castings. The laser-scan data were used to fabricate another set of artificial ice shapes using rapid prototype manufacturing such as stereolithography. The iced-airfoil results with both sets of artificial ice shapes were compared to evaluate the aerodynamic simulation accuracy of the laser-scan data. For five of the six ice-accretion cases, there was excellent agreement in the iced-airfoil aerodynamic performance between the casting and laser-scan based simulations. For example, typical differences in iced-airfoil maximum lift coefficient were less than 3 percent with corresponding differences in stall angle of approximately 1 deg or less. The aerodynamic simulation accuracy reported in this paper has demonstrated the combined accuracy of the laser-scan and rapid-prototype manufacturing approach to simulating ice accretion for a NACA 23012 airfoil. For several

Modelling the Antarctic Ice Sheet

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke; Holm, A.

2015-01-01

to sea level high stands during past interglacial periods. A number of AIS models have been developed and applied to try to understand the workings of the AIS and to form a robust basis for future projections of the AIS contribution to sea level change. The recent DCESS (Danish Center for Earth System......The Antarctic ice sheet is a major player in the Earth’s climate system and is by far the largest depository of fresh water on the planet. Ice stored in the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) contains enough water to raise sea level by about 58 m, and ice loss from Antarctica contributed significantly...

Mass balance of Greenland and the Canadian Ice Caps from combined altimetry and GRACE inversion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Forsberg, René; Simonsen, Sebastian Bjerregaard; Sørensen, Louise Sandberg

The combination of GRACE and altimetry data may yield a high resolution mass balance time series of the Greenlandice sheet, highlighting the varying individual mass loss behaviour of major glaciers. By including the Canadian arctic ice caps in the estimation, a more reliable estimate of the mass...... loss of both Greenlandand the Canadian ice caps may be obtained, minimizing the leakage errors otherwise unavoidable by GRACE. Actually, the absolute value of the Greenlandice sheet mass loss is highly dependent on methods and how the effects of Arctic Canadian ice caps are separated in the GRACE...... loss of the ice caps and ice sheet basins for the period 2003-15. This period shows a marked increase of ice sheet melt, especially in NW and NE Greenland, but also show large variability, with the melt anomaly year of 2012 showing a record mass loss, followed by 2013 with essentially no Greenland mass...

Evaluate of head loss, sediment value and copper removal in sand media (rapid sand filter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daneshi Navab

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Along with the technology development and increasing consumption of water resources, we are experiencing low qualities in the mentioned resources. Copper brings about serious environment al pollution, threatening human health and ecosystem. This metal found variously in water resources and industrial activities. Therefore, it needs to treat the water resources from these excessive amounts. Different methods have used for this reason but the most used method during recent years has been the absorption by economic absorbers such as sand. Rapid sand filters usually used in water and wastewater treatment plants for water clarification. In this research, a single layer gravity rapid sand filter has used to reduce different concentrations of copper. sediment value and head loss arising in filter media is simulated by using combination of Carman-Kozeny, Rose and Gregory models in different discharges of rapid sand filter. Results have shown that with increasing in discharge and decreasing in input copper concentration, arriving time to given head loss, is increasing. In addition, results demonstrated that with increasing in copper concentration in influent, removal efficiency is decreasing somewhat. Results of this research can applied in an appropriate design of rapid sand filter to copper removal, a prediction of rapid sand filter ability to copper removal and an estimation of arising head loss during filter work thus evaluating of time interval backwash. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ije.v3i2.10641 International Journal of the Environment Vol.3(2 2014: 276-286

Ice-sheet mass balance and climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanna, Edward; Navarro, Francisco J; Pattyn, Frank; Domingues, Catia M; Fettweis, Xavier; Ivins, Erik R; Nicholls, Robert J; Ritz, Catherine; Smith, Ben; Tulaczyk, Slawek; Whitehouse, Pippa L; Zwally, H Jay

2013-06-06

Since the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, new observations of ice-sheet mass balance and improved computer simulations of ice-sheet response to continuing climate change have been published. Whereas Greenland is losing ice mass at an increasing pace, current Antarctic ice loss is likely to be less than some recently published estimates. It remains unclear whether East Antarctica has been gaining or losing ice mass over the past 20 years, and uncertainties in ice-mass change for West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula remain large. We discuss the past six years of progress and examine the key problems that remain.

Ice core carbonyl sulfide measurements from a new South Pole ice core (SPICECORE)

Science.gov (United States)

Aydin, M.; Nicewonger, M. R.; Saltzman, E. S.

2017-12-01

Carbonyl sulfide (COS) is the most abundant sulfur gas in the troposphere with a present-day mixing ratio of about 500 ppt. Direct and indirect emissions from the oceans are the predominant sources of atmospheric COS. The primary removal mechanism is uptake by terrestrial plants during photosynthesis. Because plants do not respire COS, atmospheric COS levels are linked to terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP). Ancient air trapped in polar ice cores has been used to reconstruct COS records of the past atmosphere, which can be used to infer past GPP variability and potential changes in oceanic COS emission. We are currently analyzing samples from a newly drilled intermediate depth ice core from South Pole, Antarctica (SPICECORE). This core is advantageous for studying COS because the cold temperatures of South Pole ice lead to very slow rates of in situ loss due to hydrolysis. One hundred and eighty-four bubbly ice core samples have been analyzed to date with gas ages ranging from about 9.2 thousand (733 m depth) to 75 years (126 m depth) before present. After a 2% correction for gravitational enrichment in the firn, the mean COS mixing ratio for the data set is 312±15 ppt (±1s), with the data set median also equal to 312 ppt. The only significant long-term trend in the record is a 5-10% increase in COS during the last 2-3 thousand years of the Holocene. The SPICECORE data agree with previously published ice core COS records from other Antarctic sites during times of overlap, confirming earlier estimates of COS loss rates to in situ hydrolysis in ice cores. Antarctic ice core data place strict constraints on the COS mixing ratio and its range of variability in the southern hemisphere atmosphere during the last several millennia. Implications for the atmospheric COS budget will be discussed.

Changes in ice dynamics and mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet.

Science.gov (United States)

Rignot, Eric

2006-07-15

The concept that the Antarctic ice sheet changes with eternal slowness has been challenged by recent observations from satellites. Pronounced regional warming in the Antarctic Peninsula triggered ice shelf collapse, which led to a 10-fold increase in glacier flow and rapid ice sheet retreat. This chain of events illustrated the vulnerability of ice shelves to climate warming and their buffering role on the mass balance of Antarctica. In West Antarctica, the Pine Island Bay sector is draining far more ice into the ocean than is stored upstream from snow accumulation. This sector could raise sea level by 1m and trigger widespread retreat of ice in West Antarctica. Pine Island Glacier accelerated 38% since 1975, and most of the speed up took place over the last decade. Its neighbour Thwaites Glacier is widening up and may double its width when its weakened eastern ice shelf breaks up. Widespread acceleration in this sector may be caused by glacier ungrounding from ice shelf melting by an ocean that has recently warmed by 0.3 degrees C. In contrast, glaciers buffered from oceanic change by large ice shelves have only small contributions to sea level. In East Antarctica, many glaciers are close to a state of mass balance, but sectors grounded well below sea level, such as Cook Ice Shelf, Ninnis/Mertz, Frost and Totten glaciers, are thinning and losing mass. Hence, East Antarctica is not immune to changes.

IceMap250—Automatic 250 m Sea Ice Extent Mapping Using MODIS Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles Gignac

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The sea ice cover in the North evolves at a rapid rate. To adequately monitor this evolution, tools with high temporal and spatial resolution are needed. This paper presents IceMap250, an automatic sea ice extent mapping algorithm using MODIS reflective/emissive bands. Hybrid cloud-masking using both the MOD35 mask and a visibility mask, combined with downscaling of Bands 3–7 to 250 m, are utilized to delineate sea ice extent using a decision tree approach. IceMap250 was tested on scenes from the freeze-up, stable cover, and melt seasons in the Hudson Bay complex, in Northeastern Canada. IceMap250 first product is a daily composite sea ice presence map at 250 m. Validation based on comparisons with photo-interpreted ground-truth show the ability of the algorithm to achieve high classification accuracy, with kappa values systematically over 90%. IceMap250 second product is a weekly clear sky map that provides a synthesis of 7 days of daily composite maps. This map, produced using a majority filter, makes the sea ice presence map even more accurate by filtering out the effects of isolated classification errors. The synthesis maps show spatial consistency through time when compared to passive microwave and national ice services maps.

The Secret of the Svalbard Sea Ice Barrier

Science.gov (United States)

Nghiem, Son V.; Van Woert, Michael L.; Neumann, Gregory

2004-01-01

An elongated sea ice feature called the Svalbard sea ice barrier rapidly formed over an area in the Barents Sea to the east of Svalbard posing navigation hazards. The secret of its formation lies in the bottom bathymetry that governs the distribution of cold Arctic waters masses, which impacts sea ice growth on the water surface.

Airframe Icing Research Gaps: NASA Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Potapczuk, Mark

2009-01-01

qCurrent Airframe Icing Technology Gaps: Development of a full 3D ice accretion simulation model. Development of an improved simulation model for SLD conditions. CFD modeling of stall behavior for ice-contaminated wings/tails. Computational methods for simulation of stability and control parameters. Analysis of thermal ice protection system performance. Quantification of 3D ice shape geometric characteristics Development of accurate ground-based simulation of SLD conditions. Development of scaling methods for SLD conditions. Development of advanced diagnostic techniques for assessment of tunnel cloud conditions. Identification of critical ice shapes for aerodynamic performance degradation. Aerodynamic scaling issues associated with testing scale model ice shape geometries. Development of altitude scaling methods for thermal ice protections systems. Development of accurate parameter identification methods. Measurement of stability and control parameters for an ice-contaminated swept wing aircraft. Creation of control law modifications to prevent loss of control during icing encounters. 3D ice shape geometries. Collection efficiency data for ice shape geometries. SLD ice shape data, in-flight and ground-based, for simulation verification. Aerodynamic performance data for 3D geometries and various icing conditions. Stability and control parameter data for iced aircraft configurations. Thermal ice protection system data for simulation validation.

Methods and Magnitudes of Rapid Weight Loss in Judo Athletes Over Pre-Competition Periods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kons Rafael Lima

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Purpose. The study aimed to analyse the methods and magnitudes of rapid weight loss (RWL in judo team members in distinct periods before the biggest state competition in Southern Brazil.

Modeling Commercial Turbofan Engine Icing Risk With Ice Crystal Ingestion

Science.gov (United States)

Jorgenson, Philip C. E.; Veres, Joseph P.

2013-01-01

The occurrence of ice accretion within commercial high bypass aircraft turbine engines has been reported under certain atmospheric conditions. Engine anomalies have taken place at high altitudes that have been attributed to ice crystal ingestion, partially melting, and ice accretion on the compression system components. The result was degraded engine performance, and one or more of the following: loss of thrust control (roll back), compressor surge or stall, and flameout of the combustor. As ice crystals are ingested into the fan and low pressure compression system, the increase in air temperature causes a portion of the ice crystals to melt. It is hypothesized that this allows the ice-water mixture to cover the metal surfaces of the compressor stationary components which leads to ice accretion through evaporative cooling. Ice accretion causes a blockage which subsequently results in the deterioration in performance of the compressor and engine. The focus of this research is to apply an engine icing computational tool to simulate the flow through a turbofan engine and assess the risk of ice accretion. The tool is comprised of an engine system thermodynamic cycle code, a compressor flow analysis code, and an ice particle melt code that has the capability of determining the rate of sublimation, melting, and evaporation through the compressor flow path, without modeling the actual ice accretion. A commercial turbofan engine which has previously experienced icing events during operation in a high altitude ice crystal environment has been tested in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) altitude test facility at NASA Glenn Research Center. The PSL has the capability to produce a continuous ice cloud which are ingested by the engine during operation over a range of altitude conditions. The PSL test results confirmed that there was ice accretion in the engine due to ice crystal ingestion, at the same simulated altitude operating conditions as experienced previously in

Icing Impacts on Wind Energy Production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Davis, Neil

was developed for the identification of icing periods from the turbine power data and the nacelle wind speeds. This method was based on the spread of power production observations at cold temperatures that was not seen during warmer periods. Using the insights gained through the observational analysis...... and the turbine power loss. The model took the shape of a hierarchal model that combined a decision tree model, based on the existence of ice on the turbine blade, and two Generalized Additive Models (GAM). The GAM for periods where icing was forecast was found to include the terms wind speed, total ice mass...

The practicality of defensive ice walls: How would the great ice wall in Game of Thrones hold up?

Science.gov (United States)

Truffer, M.

2017-12-01

The Game of Thrones great ice wall is a colossal feature stretching several hundred miles and over 200 m high. Its purpose is to defend the realm from the wildlings. It is generally pictured as a near vertical wall. An ice wall of these proportions poses interesting challenges, mainly because ice acts as a non-linear shear-thinning fluid. A 200 m high vertical wall would create a large effective stress near its base of almost 1.8 MPa. Typical stresses responsible for ice flow in glaciers and ice sheets are more than a magnitude lower (0.1 MPa). Extrapolating a commonly used flow law for temperate ice to such high stresses would lead to strain rates at the bottom of the wall in excess of 1/day, meaning the wall would rapidly collapse and spread laterally under its own weight. To keep the wall stable, it would help to cool it significantly, as the flow of ice is also very temperature dependent. Cooling to a chilly -40 C would reduce strain rates by two orders of magnitude, but this still leads to significant slumping of the wall within just a few weeks. A time-dependent similarity solution for simplified ice flow equations that describe the evolving shape of the ice wall was provided by Halfar (1981), and demonstrates the rapid decay of the wall. A simple estimate can be derived by assuming that ice is a perfectly plastic fluid, able to maintain a basal shear stress of about 0.1 MPa. A stable ice wall would then spread laterally to about 4 km width. The resulting slope would only be steep at the very margin and the ice wall would loose much of its defensive capabilities. I conclude that the ice wall as proposed would not be a practicable defense under typical Earth conditions, and special magical powers would be necessary to maintain its shape, even for just a few days.

Increased Arctic sea ice drift alters adult female polar bear movements and energetics.

Science.gov (United States)

Durner, George M; Douglas, David C; Albeke, Shannon E; Whiteman, John P; Amstrup, Steven C; Richardson, Evan; Wilson, Ryan R; Ben-David, Merav

2017-09-01

Recent reductions in thickness and extent have increased drift rates of Arctic sea ice. Increased ice drift could significantly affect the movements and the energy balance of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) which forage, nearly exclusively, on this substrate. We used radio-tracking and ice drift data to quantify the influence of increased drift on bear movements, and we modeled the consequences for energy demands of adult females in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas during two periods with different sea ice characteristics. Westward and northward drift of the sea ice used by polar bears in both regions increased between 1987-1998 and 1999-2013. To remain within their home ranges, polar bears responded to the higher westward ice drift with greater eastward movements, while their movements north in the spring and south in fall were frequently aided by ice motion. To compensate for more rapid westward ice drift in recent years, polar bears covered greater daily distances either by increasing their time spent active (7.6%-9.6%) or by increasing their travel speed (8.5%-8.9%). This increased their calculated annual energy expenditure by 1.8%-3.6% (depending on region and reproductive status), a cost that could be met by capturing an additional 1-3 seals/year. Polar bears selected similar habitats in both periods, indicating that faster drift did not alter habitat preferences. Compounding reduced foraging opportunities that result from habitat loss; changes in ice drift, and associated activity increases, likely exacerbate the physiological stress experienced by polar bears in a warming Arctic. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Windows in Arctic sea ice: Light transmission and ice algae in a refrozen lead

Science.gov (United States)

Kauko, Hanna M.; Taskjelle, Torbjørn; Assmy, Philipp; Pavlov, Alexey K.; Mundy, C. J.; Duarte, Pedro; Fernández-Méndez, Mar; Olsen, Lasse M.; Hudson, Stephen R.; Johnsen, Geir; Elliott, Ashley; Wang, Feiyue; Granskog, Mats A.

2017-06-01

The Arctic Ocean is rapidly changing from thicker multiyear to thinner first-year ice cover, with significant consequences for radiative transfer through the ice pack and light availability for algal growth. A thinner, more dynamic ice cover will possibly result in more frequent leads, covered by newly formed ice with little snow cover. We studied a refrozen lead (≤0.27 m ice) in drifting pack ice north of Svalbard (80.5-81.8°N) in May-June 2015 during the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition (N-ICE2015). We measured downwelling incident and ice-transmitted spectral irradiance, and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), particle absorption, ultraviolet (UV)-protecting mycosporine-like amino acids (MAAs), and chlorophyll a (Chl a) in melted sea ice samples. We found occasionally very high MAA concentrations (up to 39 mg m-3, mean 4.5 ± 7.8 mg m-3) and MAA to Chl a ratios (up to 6.3, mean 1.2 ± 1.3). Disagreement in modeled and observed transmittance in the UV range let us conclude that MAA signatures in CDOM absorption spectra may be artifacts due to osmotic shock during ice melting. Although observed PAR (photosynthetically active radiation) transmittance through the thin ice was significantly higher than that of the adjacent thicker ice with deep snow cover, ice algal standing stocks were low (≤2.31 mg Chl a m-2) and similar to the adjacent ice. Ice algal accumulation in the lead was possibly delayed by the low inoculum and the time needed for photoacclimation to the high-light environment. However, leads are important for phytoplankton growth by acting like windows into the water column.

Ice volume and climate changes from a 6000 year sea-level record in French Polynesia.

Science.gov (United States)

Hallmann, N; Camoin, G; Eisenhauer, A; Botella, A; Milne, G A; Vella, C; Samankassou, E; Pothin, V; Dussouillez, P; Fleury, J; Fietzke, J

2018-01-18

Mid- to late-Holocene sea-level records from low-latitude regions serve as an important baseline of natural variability in sea level and global ice volume prior to the Anthropocene. Here, we reconstruct a high-resolution sea-level curve encompassing the last 6000 years based on a comprehensive study of coral microatolls, which are sensitive low-tide recorders. Our curve is based on microatolls from several islands in a single region and comprises a total of 82 sea-level index points. Assuming thermosteric contributions are negligible on millennial time scales, our results constrain global ice melting to be 1.5-2.5 m (sea-level equivalent) since ~5500 years before present. The reconstructed curve includes isolated rapid events of several decimetres within a few centuries, one of which is most likely related to loss from the Antarctic ice sheet mass around 5000 years before present. In contrast, the occurrence of large and flat microatolls indicates periods of significant sea-level stability lasting up to ~300 years.

Blocking rapid ice crystal growth through nonbasal plane adsorption of antifreeze proteins

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Olijve, L.L.C.; Meister, K.; DeVries, A.L.; Duman, J.G.; Guo, S.; Bakker, H.J.; Voets, I.K.

2016-01-01

Antifreeze proteins (AFPs) are a unique class of proteins that bind to growing ice crystal surfaces and arrest further ice growth. AFPs have gained a large interest for their use in antifreeze formulations for water-based materials, such as foods, waterborne paints, and organ transplants. Instead of

State of Arctic Sea Ice North of Svalbard during N-ICE2015

Science.gov (United States)

Rösel, Anja; King, Jennifer; Gerland, Sebastian

2016-04-01

The N-ICE2015 cruise, led by the Norwegian Polar Institute, was a drift experiment with the research vessel R/V Lance from January to June 2015, where the ship started the drift North of Svalbard at 83°14.45' N, 21°31.41' E. The drift was repeated as soon as the vessel drifted free. Altogether, 4 ice stations where installed and the complex ocean-sea ice-atmosphere system was studied with an interdisciplinary Approach. During the N-ICE2015 cruise, extensive ice thickness and snow depth measurements were performed during both, winter and summer conditions. Total ice and snow thickness was measured with ground-based and airborne electromagnetic instruments; snow depth was measured with a GPS snow depth probe. Additionally, ice mass balance and snow buoys were deployed. Snow and ice thickness measurements were performed on repeated transects to quantify the ice growth or loss as well as the snow accumulation and melt rate. Additionally, we collected independent values on surveys to determine the general ice thickness distribution. Average snow depths of 32 cm on first year ice, and 52 cm on multi-year ice were measured in January, the mean snow depth on all ice types even increased until end of March to 49 cm. The average total ice and snow thickness in winter conditions was 1.92 m. During winter we found a small growth rate on multi-year ice of about 15 cm in 2 months, due to above-average snow depths and some extraordinary storm events that came along with mild temperatures. In contrast thereto, we also were able to study new ice formation and thin ice on newly formed leads. In summer conditions an enormous melt rate, mainly driven by a warm Atlantic water inflow in the marginal ice zone, was observed during two ice stations with melt rates of up to 20 cm per 24 hours. To reinforce the local measurements around the ship and to confirm their significance on a larger scale, we compare them to airborne thickness measurements and classified SAR-satellite scenes. The

Arctic Sea Ice in Transformation: A Review of Recent Observed Changes and Impacts on Biology and Human Activity

Science.gov (United States)

Meier, Walter N.; Hovelsrud, Greta K.; van Oort, Bob E. H.; Key, Jeffrey R.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Michel, Christine; Haas, Christian; Granskog, Mats A.; Gerland, Sebastian; Perovich, Donald K.;

Envelope Protection for In-Flight Ice Contamination

Science.gov (United States)

Gingras, David R.; Barnhart, Billy P.; Ranaudo, Richard J.; Ratvasky, Thomas P.; Morelli, Eugene A.

2010-01-01

Fatal loss-of-control (LOC) accidents have been directly related to in-flight airframe icing. The prototype system presented in this paper directly addresses the need for real-time onboard envelope protection in icing conditions. The combinations of a-priori information and realtime aerodynamic estimations are shown to provide sufficient input for determining safe limits of the flight envelope during in-flight icing encounters. The Icing Contamination Envelope Protection (ICEPro) system has been designed and implemented to identify degradations in airplane performance and flying qualities resulting from ice contamination and provide safe flight-envelope cues to the pilot. Components of ICEPro are described and results from preliminary tests are presented.

The Antarctica component of postglacial rebound model ICE-6G_C (VM5a) based on GPS positioning, exposure age dating of ice thicknesses, and relative sea level histories

Science.gov (United States)

Argus, Donald F.; Peltier, W. R.; Drummond, R.; Moore, Angelyn W.

2014-07-01

A new model of the deglaciation history of Antarctica over the past 25 kyr has been developed, which we refer to herein as ICE-6G_C (VM5a). This revision of its predecessor ICE-5G (VM2) has been constrained to fit all available geological and geodetic observations, consisting of: (1) the present day uplift rates at 42 sites estimated from GPS measurements, (2) ice thickness change at 62 locations estimated from exposure-age dating, (3) Holocene relative sea level histories from 12 locations estimated on the basis of radiocarbon dating and (4) age of the onset of marine sedimentation at nine locations along the Antarctic shelf also estimated on the basis of 14C dating. Our new model fits the totality of these data well. An additional nine GPS-determined site velocities are also estimated for locations known to be influenced by modern ice loss from the Pine Island Bay and Northern Antarctic Peninsula regions. At the 42 locations not influenced by modern ice loss, the quality of the fit of postglacial rebound model ICE-6G_C (VM5A) is characterized by a weighted root mean square residual of 0.9 mm yr-1. The Southern Antarctic Peninsula is inferred to be rising at 2 mm yr-1, requiring there to be less Holocene ice loss there than in the prior model ICE-5G (VM2). The East Antarctica coast is rising at approximately 1 mm yr-1, requiring ice loss from this region to have been small since Last Glacial Maximum. The Ellsworth Mountains, at the base of the Antarctic Peninsula, are inferred to be rising at 5-8 mm yr-1, indicating large ice loss from this area during deglaciation that is poorly sampled by geological data. Horizontal deformation of the Antarctic Plate is minor with two exceptions. First, O'Higgins, at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, is moving southeast at a significant 2 mm yr-1 relative to the Antarctic Plate. Secondly, the margins of the Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves are moving horizontally away from the shelf centres at an approximate rate of 0.8 mm yr-1, in

Ice Thickness, Melting Rates and Styles of Activity in Ice-Volcano Interaction

Science.gov (United States)

Gudmundsson, M. T.

2005-12-01

In most cases when eruptions occur within glaciers they lead to rapid ice melting, jokulhlaups and/or lahars. Many parameters influence the style of activity and its impact on the environment. These include ice thickness (size of glacier), bedrock geometry, magma flow rate and magma composition. The eruptions that have been observed can roughly be divided into: (1) eruptions under several hundred meters thick ice on a relatively flat bedrock, (2) eruptions on flat or sloping bed through relatively thin ice, and (3) volcanism where effects are limitied to confinement of lava flows or melting of ice by pyroclastic flows or surges. This last category (ice-contact volcanism) need not cause much ice melting. Many of the deposits formed by Pleistocene volcanism in Iceland, British Columbia and Antarctica belong to the first category. An important difference between this type of activity and submarine activity (where pressure is hydrostatic) is that pressure at vents may in many cases be much lower than glaciostatic due to partial support of ice cover over vents by the surrounding glacier. Reduced pressure favours explosive activity. Thus the effusive/explosive transition may occur several hundred metres underneath the ice surface. Explosive fragmentation of magma leads to much higher rates of heat transfer than does effusive eruption of pillow lavas, and hence much higher melting rates. This effect of reduced pressure at vents will be less pronounced in a large ice sheet than in a smaller glacier or ice cap, since the hydraulic gradient that drives water away from an eruption site will be lower in the large glacier. This may have implications for form and type of eruption deposits and their relationship with ice thickness and glacier size.

Perennial water stratification and the role of freshwater in the mass balance of Arctic ice shelves and multiyear landfast sea ice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeffries, M.O.

1991-01-01

A number of the ice shelves of northern Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic owe their origin to multiyear landfast sea ice (MLSI) growth during the post-Hypsithermal cooling ca. 3,000-4,000 BP. Since they grew in response to an arctic-wide climatic deterioration and contain evidence of occasional post-4,000 BP climatic ameliorations, they may be expected to be sensitive to future global climate changes manifested in the High Arctic. The purpose of this paper is to examine ice-ocean interactions and feedbacks, and the response of the ice shelves and the MLSI to the improved summer climate of the last ca. 100 years, and implications for the future. There is good evidence that there has been a negative surface mass balance since the turn of the century. Mass balance measurements on the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf between 1966 and 1985 indicate a total ice loss of 1.371 m at a mean annual rate of 68.5 mm. The interannual pattern of accumulation and ablation and the long-term losses on the ice shelf are similar to other Canadian High Arctic glacier mass balance records. It is evident from water and ice core records of salinity, δ 18 0 and tritium, that perennial water stratification is common below and behind the ice shelves and MLSI. The coastal waters are highly stratified, with anything from 0.5 m to 41.0 m of freshwater interposed between the overlying ice and underlying seawater. The primary source of the freshwater is summer run-off of snow-meltwater from the adjacent land and from the ice itself. There is minimal mixing between the influent freshwater and seawater, and the freshwater is either dammed behind the ice shelves and the MLSI, with subsequent under-ice freshwater outflows, or pooled in under-ice depressions

Rapid genome reshaping by multiple-gene loss after whole-genome duplication in teleost fish suggested by mathematical modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, Yukuto; Tsukamoto, Katsumi; Nishida, Mutsumi

2015-01-01

Whole-genome duplication (WGD) is believed to be a significant source of major evolutionary innovation. Redundant genes resulting from WGD are thought to be lost or acquire new functions. However, the rates of gene loss and thus temporal process of genome reshaping after WGD remain unclear. The WGD shared by all teleost fish, one-half of all jawed vertebrates, was more recent than the two ancient WGDs that occurred before the origin of jawed vertebrates, and thus lends itself to analysis of gene loss and genome reshaping. Using a newly developed orthology identification pipeline, we inferred the post–teleost-specific WGD evolutionary histories of 6,892 protein-coding genes from nine phylogenetically representative teleost genomes on a time-calibrated tree. We found that rapid gene loss did occur in the first 60 My, with a loss of more than 70–80% of duplicated genes, and produced similar genomic gene arrangements within teleosts in that relatively short time. Mathematical modeling suggests that rapid gene loss occurred mainly by events involving simultaneous loss of multiple genes. We found that the subsequent 250 My were characterized by slow and steady loss of individual genes. Our pipeline also identified about 1,100 shared single-copy genes that are inferred to have become singletons before the divergence of clupeocephalan teleosts. Therefore, our comparative genome analysis suggests that rapid gene loss just after the WGD reshaped teleost genomes before the major divergence, and provides a useful set of marker genes for future phylogenetic analysis. PMID:26578810

Victoria Land, Ross Sea, and Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Science.gov (United States)

2002-01-01

On December 19, 2001, MODIS acquired data that produced this image of Antarctica's Victoria Land, Ross Ice Shelf, and the Ross Sea. The coastline that runs up and down along the left side of the image denotes where Victoria Land (left) meets the Ross Ice Shelf (right). The Ross Ice Shelf is the world's largest floating body of ice, approximately the same size as France. Credit: Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC

DOES INTRAVENOUS TRANEXAMIC ACID REDUCE BLOOD LOSS DURING SURGICALLY ASSISTED RAPID PALATAL EXPANSION?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emine AKBAŞ

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of tranexamic acid (TXA in reducing blood loss during surgically assisted rapid palatal expansion (SARPE procedure. Subjects and Methods: A total of 34 patients (12 male, 22 female who had been treated surgically under general anesthesia with SARPE including pterygoid disjunction for transverse maxillary deficiency (TMD were included in this study. The study group (n=17 received intravenous (IV TXA 10 mg/kg as a preoperative bolus; the control group (n=17 received normal saline solution. Preoperative and postoperative haemoglobin and haematocrit values, intraoperative blood loss, and any blood product transfusion were recorded. Results: Blood loss during SARPE was statistically significantly less in the study group than the control group (p=0.0001. Conclusion: Preoperative IV administration of TXA can effectively control blood loss during when SARPE with pterygoid disjunction is performed.

Update on Simulating Ice-Cliff Failure

Science.gov (United States)

Parizek, B. R.; Christianson, K. A.; Alley, R. B.; Voytenko, D.; Vankova, I.; Dixon, T. H.; Walker, R. T.; Holland, D.

2017-12-01

Using a 2D full-Stokes diagnostic ice-flow model and engineering and glaciological failure criteria, we simulate the limiting physical conditions for rapid structural failure of subaerial ice cliffs. Previously, using a higher-order flowline model, we reported that the threshold height, in crevassed ice and/or under favorable conditions for hydrofracture or crack lubrication, may be only slightly above the 100-m maximum observed today and that under well-drained or low-melt conditions, mechanically-competent ice supports cliff heights up to 220 m (with a likely range of 180-275 m) before ultimately succumbing to tensional and compressive failure along a listric surface. However, proximal to calving fronts, bridging effects lead to variations in vertical normal stress from the background glaciostatic stress state that give rise to the along-flow gradients in vertical shear stress that are included within a full-Stokes momentum balance. When including all flowline stresses within the physics core, diagnostic solutions continue to support our earlier findings that slumping failure ultimately limits the upper bound for cliff heights. Shear failure still requires low cohesive strength, tensile failure leads to deeper dry-crevasse propagation (albeit, less than halfway through the cliff), and compressive failure drops the threshold height for triggering rapid ice-front retreat via slumping to 200 m (145-280 m).

Greenland ice sheet mass balance: a review

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Aschwanden, Andy; Bjørk, Anders A.

2015-01-01

Over the past quarter of a century the Arctic has warmed more than any other region on Earth, causing a profound impact on the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to the rise in global sea level. The loss of ice can be partitioned into processes related to surface mass balance...

Therapeutic Hypothermia for the Treatment of Acute Myocardial Infarction-Combined Analysis of the RAPID MI-ICE and the CHILL-MI Trials

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Erlinge, David; Götberg, Matthias; Noc, Marko

2015-01-01

infarction CHILL-MI studies, hypothermia was rapidly induced in conscious patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) by a combination of cold saline and endovascular cooling. Twenty patients in RAPID MI-ICE and 120 in CHILL-MI with large STEMIs, scheduled for primary percutaneous coronary...... intervention (PCI) within hypothermia induced by rapid infusion of 600-2000 mL cold saline combined with endovascular cooling or standard of care. Hypothermia was initiated before PCI and continued for 1-3 hours after reperfusion aiming at a target temperature...... of 33°C. The primary endpoint was myocardial infarct size (IS) as a percentage of myocardium at risk (IS/MaR) assessed by cardiac magnetic resonance imaging at 4±2 days. Patients randomized to hypothermia treatment achieved a mean core body temperature of 34.7°C before reperfusion. Although significance...

Ocean Tide Influences on the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets

Science.gov (United States)

Padman, Laurie; Siegfried, Matthew R.; Fricker, Helen A.

2018-03-01

Ocean tides are the main source of high-frequency variability in the vertical and horizontal motion of ice sheets near their marine margins. Floating ice shelves, which occupy about three quarters of the perimeter of Antarctica and the termini of four outlet glaciers in northern Greenland, rise and fall in synchrony with the ocean tide. Lateral motion of floating and grounded portions of ice sheets near their marine margins can also include a tidal component. These tide-induced signals provide insight into the processes by which the oceans can affect ice sheet mass balance and dynamics. In this review, we summarize in situ and satellite-based measurements of the tidal response of ice shelves and grounded ice, and spatial variability of ocean tide heights and currents around the ice sheets. We review sensitivity of tide heights and currents as ocean geometry responds to variations in sea level, ice shelf thickness, and ice sheet mass and extent. We then describe coupled ice-ocean models and analytical glacier models that quantify the effect of ocean tides on lower-frequency ice sheet mass loss and motion. We suggest new observations and model developments to improve the representation of tides in coupled models that are used to predict future ice sheet mass loss and the associated contribution to sea level change. The most critical need is for new data to improve maps of bathymetry, ice shelf draft, spatial variability of the drag coefficient at the ice-ocean interface, and higher-resolution models with improved representation of tidal energy sinks.

Regional Changes in the Sea Ice Cover and Ice Production in the Antarctic

Science.gov (United States)

Comiso, Josefino C.

2011-01-01

Coastal polynyas around the Antarctic continent have been regarded as sea ice factories because of high ice production rates in these regions. The observation of a positive trend in the extent of Antarctic sea ice during the satellite era has been intriguing in light of the observed rapid decline of the ice extent in the Arctic. The results of analysis of the time series of passive microwave data indicate large regional variability with the trends being strongly positive in the Ross Sea, strongly negative in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas and close to zero in the other regions. The atmospheric circulation in the Antarctic is controlled mainly by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the marginal ice zone around the continent shows an alternating pattern of advance and retreat suggesting the presence of a propagating wave (called Antarctic Circumpolar Wave) around the circumpolar region. The results of analysis of the passive microwave data suggest that the positive trend in the Antarctic sea ice cover could be caused primarily by enhanced ice production in the Ross Sea that may be associated with more persistent and larger coastal polynyas in the region. Over the Ross Sea shelf, analysis of sea ice drift data from 1992 to 2008 yields a positive rate-of-increase in the net ice export of about 30,000 km2 per year. For a characteristic ice thickness of 0.6 m, this yields a volume transport of about 20 km3/year, which is almost identical, within error bars, to our estimate of the trend in ice production. In addition to the possibility of changes in SAM, modeling studies have also indicated that the ozone hole may have a role in that it causes the deepening of the lows in the western Antarctic region thereby causing strong winds to occur offthe Ross-ice shelf.

High density amorphous ice and its phase transition to ice XII

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohl, I.

2001-07-01

30 K min -1 ) of 130 K. The change of the heat capacity is 1.62 ± 0.09 J mol -1 K -1 . This endothermic change of the heat capacity is attributed to the transition of a static to a dynamic structure of the hydrogen atoms on heating. After annealing ice XII at 119 K for 120 min there is an additional endothermic effect with an enthalpy change of 11 ± 2 J mol -1 and an entropy change of 0.08 ± 0.02 J mol -1 K -1 . The enthalpy and entropy loss during annealing can be due to the increase of proton ordering in ice XII at low temperatures of the order of 2.3 % of the calculated maximum entropy value due to proton order in ice. (author) [de

Mass Balance of the West Antarctic Ice-Sheet from ICESat Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Zwally, H. Jay; Li, Jun; Robins, John; Saba, Jack L.; Yi, Donghui

2011-01-01

Mass balance estimates for 2003-2008 are derived from ICESat laser altimetry and compared with estimates for 1992-2002 derived from ERS radar altimetry. The net mass balance of 3 drainage systems (Pine Island, Thwaites/Smith, and the coast of Marie Bryd) for 2003-2008 is a loss of 100 Gt/yr, which increased from a loss of 70 Gt/yr for the earlier period. The DS including the Bindschadler and MacAyeal ice streams draining into the Ross Ice Shelf has a mass gain of 11 Gt/yr for 2003-2008, compared to an earlier loss of 70 Gt/yr. The DS including the Whillans and Kamb ice streams has a mass gain of 12 Gt/yr, including a significant thickening on the upper part of the Kamb DS, compared to a earlier gain of 6 Gt/yr (includes interpolation for a large portion of the DS). The other two DS discharging into the Ronne Ice Shelf and the northern Ellsworth Coast have a mass gain of 39 Gt/yr, compared to a gain of 4 Gt/yr for the earlier period. Overall, the increased losses of 30 Gt/yr in the Pine Island, Thwaites/Smith, and the coast of Marie Bryd DSs are exceeded by increased gains of 59 Gt/yr in the other 4 DS. Overall, the mass loss from the West Antarctic ice sheet has decreased to 38 Gt/yr from the earlier loss of 67 Gt/yr, reducing the contribution to sea level rise to 0.11 mm/yr from 0.19 mm/yr

Ice dynamic response to two modes of surface lake drainage on the Greenland ice sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tedesco, Marco; Alexander, Patrick; Willis, Ian C; Banwell, Alison F; Arnold, Neil S; Hoffman, Matthew J

2013-01-01

Supraglacial lake drainage on the Greenland ice sheet opens surface-to-bed connections, reduces basal friction, and temporarily increases ice flow velocities by up to an order of magnitude. Existing field-based observations of lake drainages and their impact on ice dynamics are limited, and focus on one specific draining mechanism. Here, we report and analyse global positioning system measurements of ice velocity and elevation made at five locations surrounding two lakes that drained by different mechanisms and produced different dynamic responses. For the lake that drained slowly (>24 h) by overtopping its basin, delivering water via a channel to a pre-existing moulin, speedup and uplift were less than half those associated with a lake that drained rapidly (∼2 h) through hydrofracturing and the creation of new moulins in the lake bottom. Our results suggest that the mode and associated rate of lake drainage govern the impact on ice dynamics. (letter)

Radiation Effects in Hydrogen-Laden Porous Water Ice Films: Implications for Interstellar Ices

Science.gov (United States)

Raut, Ujjwal; Baragiola, Raul; Mitchell, Emma; Shi, Jianming

H _{2} is the dominant gas in the dense clouds of the interstellar medium (ISM). At densities of 10 (5) cm (-3) , an H _{2} molecule arrives at the surface of a 0.1 mum-sized, ice-covered dust grain once every few seconds [1]. At 10 K, H _{2} can diffuse into the pores of the ice mantle and adsorb at high-energy binding sites, loading the ice with hydrogen over the lifetime of the cloud. These icy grains are also impacted by galactic cosmic rays and stellar winds (in clouds with embedded protostar). Based on the available cosmic proton flux spectrum [2], we estimate a small impact rate of nearly 1 hit per year on a 0.1 μm sized grain, or 10 (-7) times the impact frequency of the neutral H _{2}. The energy deposited by such impacts can release the adsorbed H _{2} into the gas phase (impact desorption or sputtering). Recently, we have reported on a new process of ion-induced enhanced adsorption, where molecules from the gas phase are incorporated into the film when irradiation is performed in the presence of ambient gas [3]. The interplay between ion-induced ejection and adsorption can be important in determining the gas-solid balance in the ISM. To understand the effects of cosmic rays/stellar winds impacts on interstellar ice immersed in H _{2} gas, we have performed irradiation of porous amorphous ice films loaded with H _{2} through co-deposition or adsorption following growth. The irradiations were performed with 100 keV H (+) using fluxes of 10 (10) -10 (12) H (+) cm (-2) s (-1) at 7 K, in presence of ambient H _{2} at pressures ranging from 10 (-5) to 10 (-8) Torr. Our initial results show a net loss in adsorbed H _{2} during irradiation, from competing ion-induced ejection and adsorption. The H _{2} loss per ion decreases exponentially with fluence, with a cross-section of 10 (-13) cm (2) . In addition to hydrogen removal, irradiation also leads to trapping of H _{2} in the ice film, from closing of the pores during irradiation [4]. As a result, 2.6 percent

Investigation of land ice-ocean interaction with a fully coupled ice-ocean model: 2. Sensitivity to external forcings

Science.gov (United States)

Goldberg, D. N.; Little, C. M.; Sergienko, O. V.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Hallberg, R.; Oppenheimer, M.

2012-06-01

A coupled ice stream-ice shelf-ocean cavity model is used to assess the sensitivity of the coupled system to far-field ocean temperatures, varying from 0.0 to 1.8°C, as well as sensitivity to the parameters controlling grounded ice flow. A response to warming is seen in grounding line retreat and grounded ice loss that cannot be inferred from the response of integrated melt rates alone. This is due to concentrated thinning at the ice shelf lateral margin, and to processes that contribute to this thinning. Parameters controlling the flow of grounded ice have a strong influence on the response to sub-ice shelf melting, but this influence is not seen until several years after an initial perturbation in temperatures. The simulated melt rates are on the order of that observed for Pine Island Glacier in the 1990s. However, retreat rates are much slower, possibly due to unrepresented bedrock features.

Drivers of past and future Arctic sea-ice evolution in CMIP5 models

Science.gov (United States)

Burgard, Clara; Notz, Dirk

2016-04-01

The Arctic sea-ice cover has been melting rapidly over the last decades. The main drivers of this sea-ice retreat are assumed to be changes in sea-ice thermodynamics, driven by changes in atmospheric surface fluxes and the oceanic heat flux at the base of the ice. To identify the fluxes most affecting past and future sea-ice evolution (under the RCP4.5 scenario) in climate models, we analyzed the surface energy budget over the Arctic Ocean in global climate models involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) framework. In the multi-model ensemble annual mean, the sum of atmospheric fluxes increases from 1990 to 2045, mainly driven by an increase of the radiative surface fluxes and decreases from 2045 to 2099, mainly driven by an increase in upward turbulent heat fluxes. However, due to the large model spread, the future changes in the sum of atmospheric fluxes are not significant. These non-significant changes result from several effects counteracting each other under climate change. On the one hand, a higher CO2 concentration, air temperature and air moisture lead to a higher incoming energy flux (incoming longwave radiation). On the other hand, the resulting melt of sea ice leads to higher outgoing energy fluxes (outgoing longwave radiation, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux). Shortwave radiation behaves differently, but also in two counteracting ways, as higher air moisture leads to a decrease in incoming shortwave radiation and less sea-ice cover leads to a decrease in outgoing shortwave radiation. The small changes in the atmospheric fluxes can be converted to an energy gain or loss by the ocean/sea-ice system, either as sensible heat by changing the oceanic heat content or as latent heat by changing the sea-ice volume. Such analysis in the multi-model ensemble mean shows that the loss of energy at the surface due to atmospheric fluxes is decreasing during the 21st century, leading to an increase in oceanic heat content and an increase in

Sea ice and millennial-scale climate variability in the Nordic seas 90 kyr ago to present.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoff, Ulrike; Rasmussen, Tine L; Stein, Ruediger; Ezat, Mohamed M; Fahl, Kirsten

2016-07-26

In the light of rapidly diminishing sea ice cover in the Arctic during the present atmospheric warming, it is imperative to study the distribution of sea ice in the past in relation to rapid climate change. Here we focus on glacial millennial-scale climatic events (Dansgaard/Oeschger events) using the sea ice proxy IP25 in combination with phytoplankton proxy data and quantification of diatom species in a record from the southeast Norwegian Sea. We demonstrate that expansion and retreat of sea ice varies consistently in pace with the rapid climate changes 90 kyr ago to present. Sea ice retreats abruptly at the start of warm interstadials, but spreads rapidly during cooling phases of the interstadials and becomes near perennial and perennial during cold stadials and Heinrich events, respectively. Low-salinity surface water and the sea ice edge spreads to the Greenland-Scotland Ridge, and during the largest Heinrich events, probably far into the Atlantic Ocean.

The safety band of Antarctic ice shelves

Science.gov (United States)

Fürst, Johannes Jakob; Durand, Gaël; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Tavard, Laure; Rankl, Melanie; Braun, Matthias; Gagliardini, Olivier

2016-05-01

The floating ice shelves along the seaboard of the Antarctic ice sheet restrain the outflow of upstream grounded ice. Removal of these ice shelves, as shown by past ice-shelf recession and break-up, accelerates the outflow, which adds to sea-level rise. A key question in predicting future outflow is to quantify the extent of calving that might precondition other dynamic consequences and lead to loss of ice-shelf restraint. Here we delineate frontal areas that we label as `passive shelf ice’ and that can be removed without major dynamic implications, with contrasting results across the continent. The ice shelves in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas have limited or almost no `passive’ portion, which implies that further retreat of current ice-shelf fronts will yield important dynamic consequences. This region is particularly vulnerable as ice shelves have been thinning at high rates for two decades and as upstream grounded ice rests on a backward sloping bed, a precondition to marine ice-sheet instability. In contrast to these ice shelves, Larsen C Ice Shelf, in the Weddell Sea, exhibits a large `passive’ frontal area, suggesting that the imminent calving of a vast tabular iceberg will be unlikely to instantly produce much dynamic change.

Oceans Melting Greenland: Early Results from NASA's Ocean-Ice Mission in Greenland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fenty, Ian; Willis, Josh K.; Khazendar, Ala

2016-01-01

the continental shelf, and about the extent to which the ocean interacts with glaciers. Early results from NASA's five-year Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) mission, based on extensive hydrographic and bathymetric surveys, suggest that many glaciers terminate in deep water and are hence vulnerable to increased...... melting due to ocean-ice interaction. OMG will track ocean conditions and ice loss at glaciers around Greenland through the year 2020, providing critical information about ocean-driven Greenland ice mass loss in a warming climate....

A simple holistic hypothesis for the self-destruction of ice sheets

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, T.

2011-07-01

Ice sheets are the only components of Earth's climate system that can self-destruct. This paper presents the quantitative force balance for bottom-up modeling of ice sheets, as first presented qualitatively in this journal as a way to quantify ice-bed uncoupling leading to self-destruction of ice sheets ( Hughes, 2009a). Rapid changes in sea level and climate can result if a large ice-sheet self-destructs quickly, as did the former Laurentide Ice Sheet of North America between 8100 and 7900 BP, thereby terminating the last cycle of Quaternary glaciation. Ice streams discharge up to 90 percent of ice from past and present ice sheets. A hypothesis is presented in which self-destruction of an ice sheet begins when ubiquitous ice-bed decoupling, quantified as a floating fraction of ice, proceeds along ice streams. This causes ice streams to surge and reduce thickness by some 90 percent, and height above sea level by up to 99 percent for floating ice, so the ice sheet undergoes gravitational collapse. Ice collapsing over marine embayments becomes floating ice shelves that may then disintegrate rapidly. This floods the world ocean with icebergs that reduce the ocean-to-atmosphere heat exchange, thereby triggering climate change. Calving bays migrate up low stagnating ice streams and carve out the accumulation zone of the collapsed ice sheet, which prevents its recovery, decreases Earth's albedo, and terminates the glaciation cycle. This sequence of events may coincide with a proposed life cycle of ice streams that drain the ice sheet. A first-order treatment of these life cycles is presented that depends on the longitudinal force balance along the flowbands of ice streams and gives a first approximation to ice-bed uncoupling at snapshots during gravitational collapse into ice shelves that disintegrate, thereby removing the ice sheet. The stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is assessed using this bottom-up approach.

Greenland ice mass balance from GPS, GRACE and ICESat

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Kjær, Kurt H.; Korsgaard, Niels Jákup

Greenland, using stereoscopic coverage by aerial photographs recorded in 1985, and subsequent comparative surface elevation data from ICESat (Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite) and ATM (Airborne Topographic Mapper) supplemented with measurements from GPS and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment...... (GRACE) satellite gravity mission, launched in March, 2002. The GRACE results provide a direct measure of mass loss, while the GPS data are used to monitor crustal uplift caused by ice mass loss close to the GPS sites....

Implications of fractured Arctic perennial ice cover on thermodynamic and dynamic sea ice processes

Science.gov (United States)

Asplin, Matthew G.; Scharien, Randall; Else, Brent; Howell, Stephen; Barber, David G.; Papakyriakou, Tim; Prinsenberg, Simon

2014-04-01

Decline of the Arctic summer minimum sea ice extent is characterized by large expanses of open water in the Siberian, Laptev, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas, and introduces large fetch distances in the Arctic Ocean. Long waves can propagate deep into the pack ice, thereby causing flexural swell and failure of the sea ice. This process shifts the floe size diameter distribution smaller, increases floe surface area, and thereby affects sea ice dynamic and thermodynamic processes. The results of Radarsat-2 imagery analysis show that a flexural fracture event which occurred in the Beaufort Sea region on 6 September 2009 affected ˜40,000 km2. Open water fractional area in the area affected initially decreased from 3.7% to 2.7%, but later increased to ˜20% following wind-forced divergence of the ice pack. Energy available for lateral melting was assessed by estimating the change in energy entrainment from longwave and shortwave radiation in the mixed-layer of the ocean following flexural fracture. 11.54 MJ m-2 of additional energy for lateral melting of ice floes was identified in affected areas. The impact of this process in future Arctic sea ice melt seasons was assessed using estimations of earlier occurrences of fracture during the melt season, and is discussed in context with ocean heat fluxes, atmospheric mixing of the ocean mixed layer, and declining sea ice cover. We conclude that this process is an important positive feedback to Arctic sea ice loss, and timing of initiation is critical in how it affects sea ice thermodynamic and dynamic processes.

Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance

Science.gov (United States)

Reeh, N.

1984-01-01

Mass balance equation for glaciers; areal distribution and ice volumes; estimates of actual mass balance; loss by calving of icebergs; hydrological budget for Greenland; and temporal variations of Greenland mass balance are examined.

Rapid Weight Loss Elicits Harmful Biochemical and Hormonal Responses in Mixed Martial Arts Athletes.

Science.gov (United States)

Coswig, Victor Silveira; Fukuda, David Hideyoshi; Del Vecchio, Fabrício Boscolo

2015-10-01

The purpose of this study was to compare biochemical and hormonal responses between mixed martial arts (MMA) competitors with minimal prefight weight loss and those undergoing rapid weight loss (RWL). Blood samples were taken from 17 MMA athletes (Mean± SD; age: 27.4 ±5.3yr; body mass: 76.2 ± 12.4kg; height: 1.71 ± 0.05m and training experience: 39.4 ± 25 months) before and after each match, according to the official events rules. The no rapid weight loss (NWL, n = 12) group weighed in on the day of the event (~30 min prior fight) and athletes declared not having used RWL strategies, while the RWL group (n = 5) weighed in 24 hr before the event and the athletes claimed to have lost 7.4 ± 1.1kg, approximately 10% of their body mass in the week preceding the event. Results showed significant (p < .05) increases following fights, regardless of group, in lactate, glucose, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), creatinine, and cortisol for all athletes. With regard to group differences, NWL had significantly (p < .05) greater creatinine levels (Mean± SD; pre to post) (NWL= 101.6 ± 15-142.3 ± 22.9μmol/L and RWL= 68.9 ± 10.6-79.5 ± 15.9μmol/L), while RWL had higher LDH (median [interquartile range]; pre to post) (NWL= 211.5[183-236] to 231[203-258]U/L and RWL= 390[370.5-443.5] to 488[463.5-540.5]U/L) and AST (NWL= 30[22-37] to 32[22-41]U/L and 39[32.5-76.5] to 72[38.5-112.5] U/L) values (NWL versus RWL, p < .05). Post hoc analysis showed that AST significantly increased in only the RWL group, while creatinine increased in only the NWL group. The practice of rapid weight loss showed a negative impact on energy availability and increased both muscle damage markers and catabolic expression in MMA fighters.

The contribution to future flood risk in the Severn Estuary from extreme sea level rise due to ice sheet mass loss

Science.gov (United States)

Quinn, N.; Bates, P. D.; Siddall, M.

2013-12-01

The rate at which sea levels will rise in the coming century is of great interest to decision makers tasked with developing mitigation policies to cope with the risk of coastal inundation. Accurate estimates of future sea levels are vital in the provision of effective policy. Recent reports from UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) suggest that mean sea levels in the UK may rise by as much as 80 cm by 2100; however, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds model predictions, particularly the contribution from ice sheets responding to climatic warming. For this reason, the application of semi-empirical modelling approaches for sea level rise predictions has increased of late, the results from which suggest that the rate of sea level rise may be greater than previously thought, exceeding 1 m by 2100. Furthermore, studies in the Red Sea indicate that rapid sea level rise beyond 1m per century has occurred in the past. In light of such research, the latest UKCIP assessment has included a H++ scenario for sea level rise in the UK of up to 1.9 m which is defined as improbable but, crucially, physically plausible. The significance of such low-probability sea level rise scenarios upon the estimation of future flood risk is assessed using the Somerset levels (UK) as a case study. A simple asymmetric probability distribution is constructed to include sea level rise scenarios of up to 1.9 m by 2100 which are added to a current 1:200 year event water level to force a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of coastal inundation. From the resulting ensemble predictions an estimation of risk by 2100 is established. The results indicate that although the likelihood of extreme sea level rise due to rapid ice sheet mass loss is low, the resulting hazard can be large, resulting in a significant (27%) increase to the projected annual risk. Furthermore, current defence construction guidelines for the coming century in the UK are expected to account for 95% of the sea level rise distribution

Design of the MISMIP+, ISOMIP+, and MISOMIP ice-sheet, ocean, and coupled ice sheet-ocean intercomparison projects

Science.gov (United States)

Asay-Davis, Xylar; Cornford, Stephen; Martin, Daniel; Gudmundsson, Hilmar; Holland, David; Holland, Denise

2015-04-01

cold states in the far-field ocean forcing. The MISOMIP experiment combines the MISMIP+ experiments with the third ISOMIP+ experiment. Changes in far-field ocean forcing lead to a rapid (over ~1-2 years) increase in sub-ice-shelf melting, which is allowed to drive ice-shelf retreat for ~100 years. Then, the far-field forcing is switched to a cold state, leading to a rapid decrease in melting and a subsequent advance over ~100 years. To illustrate, we present results from BISICLES and POP2x experiments for each of the three intercomparison exercises.

Investigating cosmic rays and air shower physics with IceCube/IceTop

Science.gov (United States)

Dembinski, Hans

2017-06-01

IceCube is a cubic-kilometer detector in the deep ice at South Pole. Its square-kilometer surface array, IceTop, is located at 2800 m altitude. IceTop is large and dense enough to cover the cosmic-ray energy spectrum from PeV to EeV energies with a remarkably small systematic uncertainty, thanks to being close to the shower maximum. The experiment offers new insights into hadronic physics of air showers by observing three components: the electromagnetic signal at the surface, GeV muons in the periphery of the showers, and TeV muons in the deep ice. The cosmic-ray flux is measured with the surface signal. The mass composition is extracted from the energy loss of TeV muons observed in the deep ice in coincidence with signals at the surface. The muon lateral distribution is obtained from GeV muons identified in surface signals in the periphery of the shower. The energy spectrum of the most energetic TeV muons is also under study, as well as special events with laterally separated TeV muon tracks which originate from high-pT TeV muons. A combination of all these measurements opens the possibility to perform powerful new tests of hadronic interaction models used to simulate air showers. The latest results will be reviewed from this perspective.

Investigating cosmic rays and air shower physics with IceCube/IceTop

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dembinski Hans

2017-01-01

Full Text Available IceCube is a cubic-kilometer detector in the deep ice at South Pole. Its square-kilometer surface array, IceTop, is located at 2800 m altitude. IceTop is large and dense enough to cover the cosmic-ray energy spectrum from PeV to EeV energies with a remarkably small systematic uncertainty, thanks to being close to the shower maximum. The experiment offers new insights into hadronic physics of air showers by observing three components: the electromagnetic signal at the surface, GeV muons in the periphery of the showers, and TeV muons in the deep ice. The cosmic-ray flux is measured with the surface signal. The mass composition is extracted from the energy loss of TeV muons observed in the deep ice in coincidence with signals at the surface. The muon lateral distribution is obtained from GeV muons identified in surface signals in the periphery of the shower. The energy spectrum of the most energetic TeV muons is also under study, as well as special events with laterally separated TeV muon tracks which originate from high-pT TeV muons. A combination of all these measurements opens the possibility to perform powerful new tests of hadronic interaction models used to simulate air showers. The latest results will be reviewed from this perspective.

Loss of Water to Space from Mars: Processes and Implications

Science.gov (United States)

Kass, D. M.

2001-12-01

most of the water on Mars is likely to be in the form of ice, it is presumably further fractionated by ~ 0.8 due to ice/water vapor interactions. This yields an effective D/H enrichment of ~ 7 for reservoirs in equilibrium with the atmosphere. From a loss to space point of view, Martian water can be divided into three reservoirs. The first is the thin, 10 pr-\\micron, atmospheric water. The second is a global exchangeable reservoir in long term isotopic equilibrium with the atmosphere. This probably encompasses the polar caps, ice in polar layered deposits and any other near surface ice or adsorbed water. The third, more speculative, reservoir is a non-exchanging reservoir (a deep sub-surface cryosphere). In addition, due to the small size of the atmospheric reservoir, difficulty in isotopically equilibrating it with the entire exchangeable reservoir, and the relatively rapid H2 loss rate, there is also an intermediate exchangeable reservoir of ~ 4~mm. This is probably either a surface layer on the polar caps or near surface ice deposits. By assuming an initial terrestrial D/H ratio for Martian water (based on condritic meteorites) and a loss to space of ~ 50~m (based on the total O loss), the size of the exchangeable reservoir can be estimated. Two conceptual models are possible, depending on whether or not the non-exchangeable reservoir replenishes the exchangeable one. Quantitatively, the two models yield almost identical reservoir sizes, ~ 9~m (about the size of the northern polar cap). If, due to slow rate of isotopic diffusion in ice, the exchangeable reservoir actually has the same isotopic enrichment as the atmosphere, it would contain ~ 12~m of water.

Identifikasi Bakteri pada Rumput Laut Euchema spinosum yang terserang penyakit Ice-ice di Perairan Pantai Kutuh

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suprabadevi Ayumayasari Saraswati

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The main causes of ice-ice disease that seaweed production will decline. Bacterial infections occur due to fluctuations in climate change resulted in a decrease in water quality resulting in the durability of seaweed. When seaweed stress will facilitate pathogen infection. Disease pathogens cause damage to internal organs. The spread of bacterial disease in seaweed is generally very fast and can lead to death, so that the loss caused by this disease is quite large. Ice-ice disease occurrence is seasonal and contagious, so the impact on the selling price low. The results showed that there are two types of pathogenic bacteria that can potentially cause disease in which bacteria Vibrio alginoliticus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Climate change affects the spatial distribution of micro seaweed bacterial pathogens.

Body movements during the off-ice execution of back spins in figure skating.

Science.gov (United States)

Mapelli, Andrea; Rodano, Renato; Fiorentini, Angelo; Giustolisi, Andrea; Sidequersky, Fernanda V; Sforza, Chiarella

2013-10-01

Using an optoelectronic motion capture system, we quantitatively assessed the arrangement of body segments and the displacement of the horizontal projection of the center of mass (CM) in seven skaters performing off-ice back spins on a rotating device (spinner). The position of the CM at the beginning of the spins was not a determining factor, but its rapid stabilization towards the center of the spinner, together with the achievement of a stable arrangement of trunk and limbs, was crucial to get the dynamic equilibrium, necessary for a lasting performance. At full spinning, however, there was an indicative variety of individual body postures. A final deceleration, associable with the loss of body equilibrium, was detected in the last spin of most of skaters. In conclusion, the current investigation demonstrated that the off-ice execution of back spin, a critical movement of ice skating, can be measured in laboratory, thus providing quantitative information to both the skaters and the coaches. The analysis is not invasive, and it may be proposed also for longitudinal evaluations of skating and postural training. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the evolution of the Laurentide Ice Sheet from MIS 3 to the Last Glacial Maximum: an approach using sea level modeling and ice flow dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Weisenberg, J.; Pico, T.; Birch, L.; Mitrovica, J. X.

2017-12-01

The history of the Laurentide Ice Sheet since the Last Glacial Maximum ( 26 ka; LGM) is constrained by geological evidence of ice margin retreat in addition to relative sea-level (RSL) records in both the near and far field. Nonetheless, few observations exist constraining the ice sheet's extent across the glacial build-up phase preceding the LGM. Recent work correcting RSL records along the U.S. mid-Atlantic dated to mid-MIS 3 (50-35 ka) for glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) infer that the Laurentide Ice Sheet grew by more than three-fold in the 15 ky leading into the LGM. Here we test the plausibility of a late and extremely rapid glaciation by driving a high-resolution ice sheet model, based on a nonlinear diffusion equation for the ice thickness. We initialize this model at 44 ka with the mid-MIS 3 ice sheet configuration proposed by Pico et al. (2017), GIA-corrected basal topography, and mass balance representative of mid-MIS 3 conditions. These simulations predict rapid growth of the eastern Laurentide Ice Sheet, with rates consistent with achieving LGM ice volumes within 15 ky. We use these simulations to refine the initial ice configuration and present an improved and higher resolution model for North American ice cover during mid-MIS 3. In addition we show that assumptions of ice loads during the glacial phase, and the associated reconstructions of GIA-corrected basal topography, produce a bias that can underpredict ice growth rates in the late stages of the glaciation, which has important consequences for our understanding of the speed limit for ice growth on glacial timescales.

Spring snow conditions on Arctic sea ice north of Svalbard, during the Norwegian Young Sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition

Science.gov (United States)

Gallet, Jean-Charles; Merkouriadi, Ioanna; Liston, Glen E.; Polashenski, Chris; Hudson, Stephen; Rösel, Anja; Gerland, Sebastian

2017-10-01

Snow is crucial over sea ice due to its conflicting role in reflecting the incoming solar energy and reducing the heat transfer so that its temporal and spatial variability are important to estimate. During the Norwegian Young Sea ICE (N-ICE2015) campaign, snow physical properties and variability were examined, and results from April until mid-June 2015 are presented here. Overall, the snow thickness was about 20 cm higher than the climatology for second-year ice, with an average of 55 ± 27 cm and 32 ± 20 cm on first-year ice. The average density was 350-400 kg m-3 in spring, with higher values in June due to melting. Due to flooding in March, larger variability in snow water equivalent was observed. However, the snow structure was quite homogeneous in spring due to warmer weather and lower amount of storms passing over the field camp. The snow was mostly consisted of wind slab, faceted, and depth hoar type crystals with occasional fresh snow. These observations highlight the more dynamic character of evolution of snow properties over sea ice compared to previous observations, due to more variable sea ice and weather conditions in this area. The snowpack was isothermal as early as 10 June with the first onset of melt clearly identified in early June. Based on our observations, we estimate than snow could be accurately represented by a three to four layers modeling approach, in order to better consider the high variability of snow thickness and density together with the rapid metamorphose of the snow in springtime.

Overview of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance and Dynamics from ICESat Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Zwally, H. Jay

2010-01-01

The primary purpose of the ICESat mission was to determine the present-day mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, identify changes that may be occurring in the surface-mass flux and ice dynamics, and estimate their contributions to global sea-level rise. Although ICESat's three lasers were planned to make continuous measurements for 3 to 5 years, the mission was re-planned to operate in 33-day campaigns 2 to 3 times each year following failure of the first laser after 36 days. Seventeen campaigns were conducted with the last one in the Fall of 2009. Mass balance maps derived from measured ice-sheet elevation changes show that the mass loss from Greenland has increased significantly to about 170 Gt/yr for 2003 to 2007 from a state of near balance in the 1990's. Increased losses (189 Gt/yr) from melting and dynamic thinning are over seven times larger'than increased gains (25 gt/yr) from precipitation. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet and the Antarctic Peninsula are losing mass at an increasing rate, but other parts of West Antarctica and the East Antarctic ice sheet are gaining mass at an increasing rate. Increased losses of 35 Gt/yr in Pine Island, Thwaites-Smith, and Marie-Bryd.Coast are more than balanced by gains in base of Peninsula and ice stream C, D, & E systems. From the 1992-2002 to 2003-2007 period, the overall mass balance for Antarctica changed from a loss of about 60 Gt/yr to near balance or slightly positive.

110 years of local glacier and ice cap changes in Central- and North East Greenland

Science.gov (United States)

Bjork, A. A.; Aagaard, S.; Kjaer, K. H.; Khan, S. A.; Box, J.

2014-12-01

The local glaciers and ice caps of Greenland are becoming more apparent players in global sea-level rise, and their contribution to future changes is significant. Very little information on their historical fluctuations exists as much of the focus has been on the Greenland Ice Sheet. Now, we can for the first time present historic data that spans 110 years for more than 200 of the local glaciers and ice caps covering this large and important region of the Arctic. The central- and north eastern part of Greenland is of particular interest as these areas are predicted to exhibit a more active behavior with higher mass loss in the future - simultaneously with an increase in precipitation. Our results show that the glaciers and ice caps in the region are responding very rapidly to changes in temperature and precipitation. The present retreat is the fastest observed within the last eight decades, only surpassed by the rapid post LIA retreat. The 1930s was the golden era for scientific exploration in Central- and North East Greenland as several large expeditions visited the area and photographed from land, sea and air. We use historic recordings from Danish and Norwegian aerial missions and terrestrial recordings from the renowned American Explorer Louise Boyd. These unique pictures from the early 1930s form the backbone of the study and are supplemented the more recent aerial photographs the 1940s and onwards and satellite imagery from the mid-1960s and up until present. From high resolution aerial photographs we are able to map the maximum extent of the glaciers during the LIA (Little Ice Age), from which retreat in this area is estimated to commence in 1900. Using a new SMB (Surface Mass Balance) model and its components covering the entire observational period along with high resolution DEMs and historic sea-ice records we are now able to extract valuable information on the past and present triggers of glacial change.

Monitoring Inter- and Intra-Seasonal Dynamics of Rapidly Degrading Ice-Rich Permafrost Riverbanks in the Lena Delta with TerraSAR-X Time Series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samuel Stettner

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Arctic warming is leading to substantial changes to permafrost including rapid degradation of ice and ice-rich coasts and riverbanks. In this study, we present and evaluate a high spatiotemporal resolution three-year time series of X-Band microwave satellite data from the TerraSAR-X (TSX satellite to quantify cliff-top erosion (CTE of an ice-rich permafrost riverbank in the central Lena Delta. We apply a threshold on TSX backscatter images and automatically extract cliff-top lines to derive intra- and inter-annual CTE. In order to examine the drivers of erosion we statistically compare CTE with climatic baseline data using linear mixed models and analysis of variance (ANOVA. Our evaluation of TSX-derived CTE against annual optical-derived CTE and seasonal in situ measurements showed good agreement between all three datasets. We observed continuous erosion from June to September in 2014 and 2015 with no significant seasonality across the thawing season. We found the highest net annual cliff-top erosion of 6.9 m in 2014, in accordance with above-average mean temperatures and thawing degree days as well as low precipitation. We found high net annual erosion and erosion variability in 2015 associated with moderate mean temperatures but above average precipitation. According to linear mixed models, climate parameters alone could not explain intra-seasonal erosional patterns and additional factors such as ground ice content likely drive the observed erosion. Finally, mean backscatter intensity on the cliff surface decreased from −5.29 to −6.69 dB from 2013 to 2015, respectively, likely resulting from changes in surface geometry and properties that could be connected to partial slope stabilization. Overall, we conclude that X-Band backscatter time series can successfully be used to complement optical remote sensing and in situ monitoring of rapid tundra permafrost erosion at riverbanks and coasts by reliably providing information about intra

Ecology under lake ice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hampton, Stephanie E.; Galloway, Aaron W. E.; Powers, Stephen M.; Ozersky, Ted; Woo, Kara H.; Batt, Ryan D.; Labou, Stephanie G.; O'Reilly, Catherine M.; Sharma, Sapna; Lottig, Noah R.; Stanley, Emily H.; North, Rebecca L.; Stockwell, Jason D.; Adrian, Rita; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Arvola, Lauri; Baulch, Helen M.; Bertani, Isabella; Bowman, Larry L., Jr.; Carey, Cayelan C.; Catalan, Jordi; Colom-Montero, William; Domine, Leah M.; Felip, Marisol; Granados, Ignacio; Gries, Corinna; Grossart, Hans-Peter; Haberman, Juta; Haldna, Marina; Hayden, Brian; Higgins, Scott N.; Jolley, Jeff C.; Kahilainen, Kimmo K.; Kaup, Enn; Kehoe, Michael J.; MacIntyre, Sally; Mackay, Anson W.; Mariash, Heather L.; Mckay, Robert M.; Nixdorf, Brigitte; Noges, Peeter; Noges, Tiina; Palmer, Michelle; Pierson, Don C.; Post, David M.; Pruett, Matthew J.; Rautio, Milla; Read, Jordan S.; Roberts, Sarah L.; Ruecker, Jacqueline; Sadro, Steven; Silow, Eugene A.; Smith, Derek E.; Sterner, Robert W.; Swann, George E. A.; Timofeyev, Maxim A.; Toro, Manuel; Twiss, Michael R.; Vogt, Richard J.; Watson, Susan B.; Whiteford, Erika J.; Xenopoulos, Marguerite A.

Winter conditions are rapidly changing in temperate ecosystems, particularly for those that experi-ence periods of snow and ice cover. Relatively little is known of winter ecology in these systems,due to a historical research focus on summer ‘growing seasons’. We executed the first global

Changes in flow of Crosson and Dotson ice shelves, West Antarctica, in response to elevated melt

Science.gov (United States)

Lilien, David A.; Joughin, Ian; Smith, Benjamin; Shean, David E.

2018-04-01

Crosson and Dotson ice shelves are two of the most rapidly changing outlets in West Antarctica, displaying both significant thinning and grounding-line retreat in recent decades. We used remotely sensed measurements of velocity and ice geometry to investigate the processes controlling their changes in speed and grounding-line position over the past 20 years. We combined these observations with inverse modeling of the viscosity of the ice shelves to understand how weakening of the shelves affected this speedup. These ice shelves have lost mass continuously since the 1990s, and we find that this loss results from increasing melt beneath both shelves and the increasing speed of Crosson. High melt rates persisted over the period covered by our observations (1996-2014), with the highest rates beneath areas that ungrounded during this time. Grounding-line flux exceeded basin-wide accumulation by about a factor of 2 throughout the study period, consistent with earlier studies, resulting in significant loss of grounded as well as floating ice. The near doubling of Crosson's speed in some areas during this time is likely the result of weakening of its margins and retreat of its grounding line. This speedup contrasts with Dotson, which has maintained its speed despite increasingly high melt rates near its grounding line, likely a result of the sustained competency of the shelf. Our results indicate that changes to melt rates began before 1996 and suggest that observed increases in melt in the 2000s compounded an ongoing retreat of this system. Advection of a channel along Dotson, as well as the grounding-line position of Kohler Glacier, suggests that Dotson experienced a change in flow around the 1970s, which may be the initial cause of its continuing retreat.

Timing and origin of recent regional ice-mass loss in Greenland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sasgen, Ingo; van den Broeke, Michiel; Bamber, J.L.Jonathan L.

2012-01-01

and Kanagaratnam, 2006) together with output of the regional atmospheric climate modelling (RACMO2/GR; Ettema et al., 2009), and surface-elevation changes from the Ice, cloud and land elevation satellite (ICESat; Sørensen et al., 2011). We show that changing ice discharge (D), surface melting and subsequent run-off...... (M/R) and precipitation (P) all contribute, in a complex and regionally variable interplay, to the increasingly negative mass balance of the GrIS observed within the last decade. Interannual variability in P along the northwest and west coasts of the GrIS largely explains the apparent regional mass...

Interannual Variability of Snow and Ice and Impact on the Carbon Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Yung, Yuk L.

2004-01-01

The goal of this research is to assess the impact of the interannual variability in snow/ice using global satellite data sets acquired in the last two decades. This variability will be used as input to simulate the CO2 interannual variability at high latitudes using a biospheric model. The progress in the past few years is summarized as follows: 1) Albedo decrease related to spring snow retreat; 2) Observed effects of interannual summertime sea ice variations on the polar reflectance; 3) The Northern Annular Mode response to Arctic sea ice loss and the sensitivity of troposphere-stratosphere interaction; 4) The effect of Arctic warming and sea ice loss on the growing season in northern terrestrial ecosystem.

Balance of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Science.gov (United States)

2002-01-01

For several decades, measurements of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet showed it to be retreating rapidly. But new data derived from satellite-borne radar sensors show the ice sheet to be growing. Changing Antarctic ice sheets remains an area of high scientific interest, particularly in light of recent global warming concerns. These new findings are significant because scientists estimate that sea level would rise 5-6 meters (16-20 feet) if the ice sheet collapsed into the sea. Do these new measurements signal the end of the ice sheet's 10,000-year retreat? Or, are these new satellite data simply much more accurate than the sparse ice core and surface measurements that produced the previous estimates? Another possibility is that the ice accumulation may simply indicate that the ice sheet naturally expands and retreats in regular cycles. Cryologists will grapple with these questions, and many others, as they examine the new data. The image above depicts the region of West Antarctica where scientists measured ice speed. The fast-moving central ice streams are shown in red. Slower tributaries feeding the ice streams are shown in blue. Green areas depict slow-moving, stable areas. Thick black lines depict the areas that collect snowfall to feed their respective ice streams. Reference: Ian Joughin and Slawek Tulaczyk Science Jan 18 2002: 476-480. Image courtesy RADARSAT Antarctic Mapping Project

Indoor ice arenas. Humidity caused problems and suggested solutions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1989-01-01

This report was prepared to assist indoor ice arena managers in Canada to solve common problems related to humidity. These problems typically include leaking roofs, deterioration of roof and insulation, condensation on indoor walls, damages to exterior walls due to condensation on exterior metal parts, rusting metal elements, high energy bills, and long and costly ice-making periods. Recommendations are made for improved roof insulation systems, proper sealing, maintenance, and repair. High energy costs are seen as due to insufficient insulation, air leakage, and heat losses by radiation and convection. Convection can be controlled by dehumidification and shielding the ice from air currents. Radiation losses can be lowered by using a low-emmissivity suspended ceiling; this effectively breaks the flow of radiated heat from the roof toward the ice sheet, and has the additional benefit of lowering of lighting energy demand by acting as a reflector. It is shown that these measures can result in significant energy cost savings with favorable payback periods. 10 figs.

Hydrogen-Bonding Surfaces for Ice Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Joseph G., Jr.; Wohl, Christopher J.; Kreeger, Richard E.; Hadley, Kevin R.; McDougall, Nicholas

2014-01-01

Ice formation on aircraft, either on the ground or in-flight, is a major safety issue. While ground icing events occur predominantly during the winter months, in-flight icing can happen anytime during the year. The latter is more problematic since it could result in increased drag and loss of lift. Under a Phase I ARMD NARI Seedling Activity, coated aluminum surfaces possessing hydrogen-bonding groups were under investigation for mitigating ice formation. Hydroxyl and methyl terminated dimethylethoxysilanes were prepared via known chemistries and characterized by spectroscopic methods. These materials were subsequently used to coat aluminum surfaces. Surface compositions were based on pure hydroxyl and methyl terminated species as well as mixtures of the two. Coated surfaces were characterized by contact angle goniometry. Receding water contact angle data suggested several potential surfaces that may exhibit reduced ice adhesion. Qualitative icing experiments performed under representative environmental temperatures using supercooled distilled water delivered via spray coating were inconclusive. Molecular modeling studies suggested that chain mobility affected the interface between ice and the surface more than terminal group chemical composition. Chain mobility resulted from the creation of "pockets" of increased free volume for longer chains to occupy.

Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Serreze, Mark C; Stroeve, Julienne

2015-07-13

September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Increased West Antarctic and unchanged East Antarctic ice discharge over the last 7 years

Science.gov (United States)

Gardner, Alex S.; Moholdt, Geir; Scambos, Ted; Fahnstock, Mark; Ligtenberg, Stefan; van den Broeke, Michiel; Nilsson, Johan

2018-02-01

Ice discharge from large ice sheets plays a direct role in determining rates of sea-level rise. We map present-day Antarctic-wide surface velocities using Landsat 7 and 8 imagery spanning 2013-2015 and compare to earlier estimates derived from synthetic aperture radar, revealing heterogeneous changes in ice flow since ˜ 2008. The new mapping provides complete coastal and inland coverage of ice velocity north of 82.4° S with a mean error of image pairs acquired during the daylight period. Using an optimized flux gate, ice discharge from Antarctica is 1929 ± 40 Gigatons per year (Gt yr-1) in 2015, an increase of 36 ± 15 Gt yr-1 from the time of the radar mapping. Flow accelerations across the grounding lines of West Antarctica's Amundsen Sea Embayment, Getz Ice Shelf and Marguerite Bay on the western Antarctic Peninsula, account for 88 % of this increase. In contrast, glaciers draining the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have been remarkably constant over the period of observation. Including modeled rates of snow accumulation and basal melt, the Antarctic ice sheet lost ice at an average rate of 183 ± 94 Gt yr-1 between 2008 and 2015. The modest increase in ice discharge over the past 7 years is contrasted by high rates of ice sheet mass loss and distinct spatial patters of elevation lowering. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is experiencing high rates of mass loss and displays distinct patterns of elevation lowering that point to a dynamic imbalance. We find modest increase in ice discharge over the past 7 years, which suggests that the recent pattern of mass loss in Antarctica is part of a longer-term phase of enhanced glacier flow initiated in the decades leading up to the first continent-wide radar mapping of ice flow.

Rapid bottom melting widespread near Antarctic ice sheet grounding lines

Science.gov (United States)

Rignot, E.; Jacobs, S.

2002-01-01

As continental ice from Antartica reaches the grounding line and begins to float, its underside melts into the ocean. Results obtained with satellite radar interferometry reveal that bottom melt rates experienced by large outlet glaciers near their grounding lines are far higher than generally assumed.

Preliminary modelling study of ice accretion on wind turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Marie Cecilie; Yin, Chungen

2014-01-01

One of the main challenges associated with cold-climate wind energy is icing on wind turbines and a series of icing-induced problems such as production loss, blade fatigue and safety issues. Because of the difficulties with on-site measurements, simulations are often used to understand and predic...

Amundsen Sea simulation with optimized ocean, sea ice, and thermodynamic ice shelf model parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Nakayama, Y.; Menemenlis, D.; Schodlok, M.; Heimbach, P.; Nguyen, A. T.; Rignot, E. J.

2016-12-01

Ice shelves and glaciers of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet are thinning and melting rapidly in the Amundsen Sea (AS). This is thought to be caused by warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) that intrudes via submarine glacial troughs located at the continental shelf break. Recent studies, however, point out that the depth of thermocline, or thickness of Winter Water (WW, potential temperature below -1 °C located above CDW) is critical in determining the melt rate, especially for the Pine Island Glacier (PIG). For example, the basal melt rate of PIG, which decreased by 50% during summer 2012, has been attributed to thickening of WW. Despite the possible importance of WW thickness on ice shelf melting, previous modeling studies in this region have focused primarily on CDW intrusion and have evaluated numerical simulations based on bottom or deep CDW properties. As a result, none of these models have shown a good representation of WW for the AS. In this study, we adjust a small number of model parameters in a regional Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to better fit the available observations during the 2007-2010 period. We choose this time period because summer observations during these years show small interannual variability in the eastern AS. As a result of adjustments, our model shows significantly better match with observations than previous modeling studies, especially for WW. Since density of sea water depends largely on salinity at low temperature, this is crucial for assessing the impact of WW on PIG melt rate. In addition, we conduct several sensitivity studies, showing the impact of surface heat loss on the thickness and properties of WW. We also discuss some preliminary results pertaining to further optimization using the adjoint method. Our work is a first step toward improved representation of ice-shelf ocean interactions in the ECCO (Estimating the Circulation and

The response of the southern Greenland ice sheet to the Holocene thermal maximum

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Nicolaj Krog; Kjaer, Kurt H.; Lecavalier, Benoit

2015-01-01

contribution of 0.16 m sea-level equivalent from the entire Greenland ice sheet, with a centennial ice loss rate of as much as 100 Gt/yr for several millennia during the Holocene thermal maximum. Our results provide an estimate of the long-term rates of volume loss that can be expected in the future...

Rapid thinning and collapse of lake calving Yakutat Glacier, Southeast Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Trussel, Barbara Lea

Glaciers around the globe are experiencing a notable retreat and thinning, triggered by atmospheric warming. Tidewater glaciers in particular have received much attention, because they have been recognized to contribute substantially to global sea level rise. However, lake calving glaciers in Alaska show increasingly high thinning and retreat rates and are therefore contributors to sea level rise. The number of such lake calving systems is increasing worldwide as land-terminating glaciers retreat into overdeepened basins and form proglacial lakes. Yakutat Glacier in Southeast Alaska is a low elevation lake calving glacier with an accumulation to total area ratio of 0.03. It experienced rapid thinning of 4.43 +/- 0.06 m w.e. yr-1 between 2000-2010 and terminus retreat of over 15 km since the beginning of the 20th century. Simultaneously, adjacent Yakutat Icefield land-terminating glaciers thinned at lower but still substantial rates (3.54 +/- 0.06 m w.e. yr -1 for the same time period), indicating lake calving dynamics help drive increased mass loss. Yakutat Glacier sustained a ˜3 km long floating tongue for over a decade, which started to disintegrate into large tabular icebergs in 2010. Such floating tongues are rarely seen on temperate tidewater glaciers. The floating ice was weakened by surface ablation, which then allowed rifts to form and intersect. Ice velocity from GPS measurements showed that the ice on the floating tongue was moving substantially faster than grounded ice, which was attributed to rift opening between the floating and grounded ice. Temporal variations of rift opening were determined from time-lapse imagery, and correlated well with variations in ice speeds. Larger rift opening rates occurred during and after precipitation or increased melt episodes. Both of these events increased subglacial discharge and could potentially increase the subaqueous currents towards the open lake and thus increase drag on the ice underside. Simultaneously

An Ice Block: A Novel Technique of Successful Prevention of Cement Leakage Using an Ice Ball

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Uri, Ishaq Fahmi, E-mail: uri.isaac@gmail.com [The Royal National Orthopaedic Hospital (United Kingdom); Garnon, Julien, E-mail: juliengarnon@gmail.com; Tsoumakidou, Georgia, E-mail: georgia.tsoumakidou@chru-strasbourg.fr; Gangi, Afshin, E-mail: gangi@unistra.fr [Hôpital Universitaire de Strasbourg, Service d’Imagerie Interventionnelle (France)

2015-04-15

We report three cases of painful bone metastases with extraosseous invasion treated with cementoplasty and cryoablation. Due to significant cortical loss in all cases, the ice ball was used simultaneously during cementoplasty to deter potential cement leakage. This was achieved by direct application of the ice ball against the cortical surface, resulting in adequate consolidation and successful containment of the cement within the treated bones. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first report to describe such a combined technique.

Controls on Arctic sea ice from first-year and multi-year survival rates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunke, Jes [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2009-01-01

The recent decrease in Arctic sea ice cover has transpired with a significant loss of multi year ice. The transition to an Arctic that is populated by thinner first year sea ice has important implications for future trends in area and volume. Here we develop a reduced model for Arctic sea ice with which we investigate how the survivability of first year and multi year ice control the mean state, variability, and trends in ice area and volume.

Dynamics and Structural Details of Amorphous Phases of Ice Determined by Incoherent Inelastic Neutron Scattering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klug, D.D.; Tulk, C.A.; Svensson, E.C.; Loong, C.

1999-01-01

Incoherent-inelastic neutron scattering data are obtained over the energy range of lattice and internal vibrations of water molecules in phases of ice prepared by pressure-induced amorphization (high-density amorphous ice, hda), by thermal annealing of hda (low-density amorphous ice, lda), and by rapidly cooling water, as well as in ice Ih and Ic . Hydrogen bonding interactions in lda differ significantly from those in the glass obtained by rapid quenching, which has hydrogen-bond interactions characteristic of highly supercooled water. Hydrogen-bond interactions in hda are weaker than in the low-density phases. copyright 1999 The American Physical Society

An Autonomous Approach to Observing the Seasonal Ice Zone in the Western Arctic

OpenAIRE

Lee, Craig M.; Thomson, Jim

2017-01-01

The Marginal Ice Zone and Arctic Sea State programs examined the processes that govern evolution of the rapidly changing seasonal ice zone in the Beaufort Sea. Autonomous platforms operating from the ice and within the water column collected measurements across the atmosphere-ice-ocean system and provided the persistence to sample continuously through the springtime retreat and autumn advance of sea ice. Autonomous platforms also allowed operational modalities that reduced the field programs’...

High Arctic Holocene temperature record from the Agassiz ice cap and Greenland ice sheet evolution.

Science.gov (United States)

Lecavalier, Benoit S; Fisher, David A; Milne, Glenn A; Vinther, Bo M; Tarasov, Lev; Huybrechts, Philippe; Lacelle, Denis; Main, Brittany; Zheng, James; Bourgeois, Jocelyne; Dyke, Arthur S

2017-06-06

We present a revised and extended high Arctic air temperature reconstruction from a single proxy that spans the past ∼12,000 y (up to 2009 CE). Our reconstruction from the Agassiz ice cap (Ellesmere Island, Canada) indicates an earlier and warmer Holocene thermal maximum with early Holocene temperatures that are 4-5 °C warmer compared with a previous reconstruction, and regularly exceed contemporary values for a period of ∼3,000 y. Our results show that air temperatures in this region are now at their warmest in the past 6,800-7,800 y, and that the recent rate of temperature change is unprecedented over the entire Holocene. The warmer early Holocene inferred from the Agassiz ice core leads to an estimated ∼1 km of ice thinning in northwest Greenland during the early Holocene using the Camp Century ice core. Ice modeling results show that this large thinning is consistent with our air temperature reconstruction. The modeling results also demonstrate the broader significance of the enhanced warming, with a retreat of the northern ice margin behind its present position in the mid Holocene and a ∼25% increase in total Greenland ice sheet mass loss (∼1.4 m sea-level equivalent) during the last deglaciation, both of which have implications for interpreting geodetic measurements of land uplift and gravity changes in northern Greenland.

Mid-Pleistocene climate transition drives net mass loss from rapidly uplifting St. Elias mountains, Alaska

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Gulick, S.P.S.; Jaeger, J.M.; Mix, A.C.; Asahi, H.; Bahlburg, H.; Belanger, C.L.; Berbel, G.B.B.; Childress, L.; Cowan, E.; Drab, L.; Forwick, M.; Fukumura, A.; Ge, S.; Gupta, S.M.; Kioka, A.; Konno, S.; LeVay, L.J.; Marz, C.; Matsuzaki, K.M.; McClymont, E.L.; Moy, C.; Muller, J.; Nakamura, A.; Ojima, T.; Ribeiro, F.R.; Ridgway, K.D.; Romero, O.E.; Slagle, A.L.; Stoner, J.S.; St-Onge, G.; Suto, I.; Walczak, M.D.; Worthington, L.L.; Bailey, I.; Enkelmann, E.; Reece, R.; Swartz, J.M.

the onset of quasi-periodic (~100-ky) glacial cycles in the mid-Pleistocene climate transition (1.2–0.7 Ma). Since then, erosion and transport of material out of the orogen has outpaced tectonic influx by 50–80%. Such a rapid net mass loss explains apparent...

Deglaciation of the Eurasian ice sheet complex

Science.gov (United States)

Patton, Henry; Hubbard, Alun; Andreassen, Karin; Auriac, Amandine; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; Stroeven, Arjen P.; Shackleton, Calvin; Winsborrow, Monica; Heyman, Jakob; Hall, Adrian M.

2017-08-01

The Eurasian ice sheet complex (EISC) was the third largest ice mass during the Last Glacial Maximum with a span of over 4500 km and responsible for around 20 m of eustatic sea-level lowering. Whilst recent terrestrial and marine empirical insights have improved understanding of the chronology, pattern and rates of retreat of this vast ice sheet, a concerted attempt to model the deglaciation of the EISC honouring these new constraints is conspicuously lacking. Here, we apply a first-order, thermomechanical ice sheet model, validated against a diverse suite of empirical data, to investigate the retreat of the EISC after 23 ka BP, directly extending the work of Patton et al. (2016) who modelled the build-up to its maximum extent. Retreat of the ice sheet complex was highly asynchronous, reflecting contrasting regional sensitivities to climate forcing, oceanic influence, and internal dynamics. Most rapid retreat was experienced across the Barents Sea sector after 17.8 ka BP when this marine-based ice sheet disintegrated at a rate of ∼670 gigatonnes per year (Gt a-1) through enhanced calving and interior dynamic thinning, driven by oceanic/atmospheric warming and exacerbated by eustatic sea-level rise. From 14.9 to 12.9 ka BP the EISC lost on average 750 Gt a-1, peaking at rates >3000 Gt a-1, roughly equally partitioned between surface melt and dynamic losses, and potentially contributing up to 2.5 m to global sea-level rise during Meltwater Pulse 1A. Independent glacio-isostatic modelling constrained by an extensive inventory of relative sea-level change corroborates our ice sheet loading history of the Barents Sea sector. Subglacial conditions were predominately temperate during deglaciation, with over 6000 subglacial lakes predicted along with an extensive subglacial drainage network. Moreover, the maximum EISC and its isostatic footprint had a profound impact on the proglacial hydrological network, forming the Fleuve Manche mega-catchment which had an area of �

Increased Land Use by Chukchi Sea Polar Bears in Relation to Changing Sea Ice Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Rode, Karyn D; Wilson, Ryan R; Regehr, Eric V; St Martin, Michelle; Douglas, David C; Olson, Jay

2015-01-01

Recent observations suggest that polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are increasingly using land habitats in some parts of their range, where they have minimal access to their preferred prey, likely in response to loss of their sea ice habitat associated with climatic warming. We used location data from female polar bears fit with satellite radio collars to compare land use patterns in the Chukchi Sea between two periods (1986-1995 and 2008-2013) when substantial summer sea-ice loss occurred. In both time periods, polar bears predominantly occupied sea-ice, although land was used during the summer sea-ice retreat and during the winter for maternal denning. However, the proportion of bears on land for > 7 days between August and October increased between the two periods from 20.0% to 38.9%, and the average duration on land increased by 30 days. The majority of bears that used land in the summer and for denning came to Wrangel and Herald Islands (Russia), highlighting the importance of these northernmost land habitats to Chukchi Sea polar bears. Where bears summered and denned, and how long they spent there, was related to the timing and duration of sea ice retreat. Our results are consistent with other studies supporting increased land use as a common response of polar bears to sea-ice loss. Implications of increased land use for Chukchi Sea polar bears are unclear, because a recent study observed no change in body condition or reproductive indices between the two periods considered here. This result suggests that the ecology of this region may provide a degree of resilience to sea ice loss. However, projections of continued sea ice loss suggest that polar bears in the Chukchi Sea and other parts of the Arctic may increasingly use land habitats in the future, which has the potential to increase nutritional stress and human-polar bear interactions.

From cyclic ice streaming to Heinrich-like events: the grow-and-surge instability in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Feldmann

2017-08-01

Full Text Available >Here we report on a cyclic, physical ice-discharge instability in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, simulating the flow of a three-dimensional, inherently buttressed ice-sheet-shelf system which periodically surges on a millennial timescale. The thermomechanically coupled model on 1 km horizontal resolution includes an enthalpy-based formulation of the thermodynamics, a nonlinear stress-balance-based sliding law and a very simple subglacial hydrology. The simulated unforced surging is characterized by rapid ice streaming through a bed trough, resulting in abrupt discharge of ice across the grounding line which is eventually calved into the ocean. We visualize the central feedbacks that dominate the subsequent phases of ice buildup, surge and stabilization which emerge from the interaction between ice dynamics, thermodynamics and the subglacial till layer. Results from the variation of surface mass balance and basal roughness suggest that ice sheets of medium thickness may be more susceptible to surging than relatively thin or thick ones for which the surge feedback loop is damped. We also investigate the influence of different basal sliding laws (ranging from purely plastic to nonlinear to linear on possible surging. The presented mechanisms underlying our simulations of self-maintained, periodic ice growth and destabilization may play a role in large-scale ice-sheet surging, such as the surging of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, which is associated with Heinrich events, and ice-stream shutdown and reactivation, such as observed in the Siple Coast region of West Antarctica.

Acceleration of the GrIS mass loss as observed by GRACE

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Svendsen, Peter Limkilde; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

2012-01-01

The mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has previously been analysed in a variety of ways, including altimetry, gravimetry and mass budget calculations, establishing a continuing decrease in the ice mass, with a number of studies finding acceleration in the mass loss. Here, we examine...

Hydrogeomorphic processes of thermokarst lakes with grounded-ice and floating-ice regimes on the Arctic coastal plain, Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Arp, C.D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Urban, F.E.; Grosse, G.

2011-01-01

Thermokarst lakes cover > 20% of the landscape throughout much of the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) with shallow lakes freezing solid (grounded ice) and deeper lakes maintaining perennial liquid water (floating ice). Thus, lake depth relative to maximum ice thickness (1·5–2·0 m) represents an important threshold that impacts permafrost, aquatic habitat, and potentially geomorphic and hydrologic behaviour. We studied coupled hydrogeomorphic processes of 13 lakes representing a depth gradient across this threshold of maximum ice thickness by analysing remotely sensed, water quality, and climatic data over a 35-year period. Shoreline erosion rates due to permafrost degradation ranged from L) with periods of full and nearly dry basins. Shorter-term (2004–2008) specific conductance data indicated a drying pattern across lakes of all depths consistent with the long-term record for only shallow lakes. Our analysis suggests that grounded-ice lakes are ice-free on average 37 days longer than floating-ice lakes resulting in a longer period of evaporative loss and more frequent negative P − EL. These results suggest divergent hydrogeomorphic responses to a changing Arctic climate depending on the threshold created by water depth relative to maximum ice thickness in ACP lakes.

Energy Deficit Required for Rapid Weight Loss in Elite Collegiate Wrestlers.

Science.gov (United States)

Kondo, Emi; Sagayama, Hiroyuki; Yamada, Yosuke; Shiose, Keisuke; Osawa, Takuya; Motonaga, Keiko; Ouchi, Shiori; Kamei, Akiko; Nakajima, Kohei; Higaki, Yasuki; Tanaka, Hiroaki; Takahashi, Hideyuki; Okamura, Koji

2018-04-26

To determine energy density for rapid weight loss (RWL) of weight-classified sports, eight male elite wrestlers were instructed to lose 6% of body mass (BM) within 53 h. Energy deficit during the RWL was calculated by subtracting total energy expenditure (TEE) determined using the doubly labeled water method (DLW) from energy intake (EI) assessed with diet records. It was also estimated from body composition change estimated with the four-component model (4C) and other conventional methods. BM decreased significantly by 4.7 ± 0.5 kg (6.4 ± 0.5%). Total body water loss was the major component of the BM loss (71.0 ± 7.6%). TEE was 9446 ± 1422 kcal, and EI was 2366 ± 1184 kcal during the RWL of 53-h; therefore, the energy deficit was 7080 ± 1525 kcal. Thus, energy density was 1507 ± 279 kcal/kg ∆BM during the RWL, comparable with values obtained using the 4C, three-component model, dual energy X-ray absorptiometry, and stable isotope dilution. Energy density for RWL of wrestlers is lower than that commonly used (7400 or 7700 kcal/kg ΔBM). Although RWL is not recommended, we propose that commonly practiced extreme energy restriction such as 7400 or 7700 kcal/kg ΔBM during RWL appears to be meaningless.

Energy Deficit Required for Rapid Weight Loss in Elite Collegiate Wrestlers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emi Kondo

2018-04-01

Full Text Available To determine energy density for rapid weight loss (RWL of weight-classified sports, eight male elite wrestlers were instructed to lose 6% of body mass (BM within 53 h. Energy deficit during the RWL was calculated by subtracting total energy expenditure (TEE determined using the doubly labeled water method (DLW from energy intake (EI assessed with diet records. It was also estimated from body composition change estimated with the four-component model (4C and other conventional methods. BM decreased significantly by 4.7 ± 0.5 kg (6.4 ± 0.5%. Total body water loss was the major component of the BM loss (71.0 ± 7.6%. TEE was 9446 ± 1422 kcal, and EI was 2366 ± 1184 kcal during the RWL of 53-h; therefore, the energy deficit was 7080 ± 1525 kcal. Thus, energy density was 1507 ± 279 kcal/kg ∆BM during the RWL, comparable with values obtained using the 4C, three-component model, dual energy X-ray absorptiometry, and stable isotope dilution. Energy density for RWL of wrestlers is lower than that commonly used (7400 or 7700 kcal/kg ΔBM. Although RWL is not recommended, we propose that commonly practiced extreme energy restriction such as 7400 or 7700 kcal/kg ΔBM during RWL appears to be meaningless.

How ice shelf morphology controls basal melting

Science.gov (United States)

Little, Christopher M.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Oppenheimer, Michael

2009-12-01

The response of ice shelf basal melting to climate is a function of ocean temperature, circulation, and mixing in the open ocean and the coupling of this external forcing to the sub-ice shelf circulation. Because slope strongly influences the properties of buoyancy-driven flow near the ice shelf base, ice shelf morphology plays a critical role in linking external, subsurface heat sources to the ice. In this paper, the slope-driven dynamic control of local and area-integrated melting rates is examined under a wide range of ocean temperatures and ice shelf shapes, with an emphasis on smaller, steeper ice shelves. A 3-D numerical ocean model is used to simulate the circulation underneath five idealized ice shelves, forced with subsurface ocean temperatures ranging from -2.0°C to 1.5°C. In the sub-ice shelf mixed layer, three spatially distinct dynamic regimes are present. Entrainment of heat occurs predominately under deeper sections of the ice shelf; local and area-integrated melting rates are most sensitive to changes in slope in this "initiation" region. Some entrained heat is advected upslope and used to melt ice in the "maintenance" region; however, flow convergence in the "outflow" region limits heat loss in flatter portions of the ice shelf. Heat flux to the ice exhibits (1) a spatially nonuniform, superlinear dependence on slope and (2) a shape- and temperature-dependent, internally controlled efficiency. Because the efficiency of heat flux through the mixed layer decreases with increasing ocean temperature, numerical simulations diverge from a simple quadratic scaling law.

Ice–ocean coupled computations for sea-ice prediction to support ice navigation in Arctic sea routes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liyanarachchi Waruna Arampath De Silva

2015-11-01

Full Text Available With the recent rapid decrease in summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean extending the navigation period in the Arctic sea routes (ASR, the precise prediction of ice distribution is crucial for safe and efficient navigation in the Arctic Ocean. In general, however, most of the available numerical models have exhibited significant uncertainties in short-term and narrow-area predictions, especially in marginal ice zones such as the ASR. In this study, we predict short-term sea-ice conditions in the ASR by using a mesoscale eddy-resolving ice–ocean coupled model that explicitly treats ice floe collisions in marginal ice zones. First, numerical issues associated with collision rheology in the ice–ocean coupled model (ice–Princeton Ocean Model [POM] are discussed and resolved. A model for the whole of the Arctic Ocean with a coarser resolution (about 25 km was developed to investigate the performance of the ice–POM model by examining the reproducibility of seasonal and interannual sea-ice variability. It was found that this coarser resolution model can reproduce seasonal and interannual sea-ice variations compared to observations, but it cannot be used to predict variations over the short-term, such as one to two weeks. Therefore, second, high-resolution (about 2.5 km regional models were set up along the ASR to investigate the accuracy of short-term sea-ice predictions. High-resolution computations were able to reasonably reproduce the sea-ice extent compared to Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–Earth Observing System satellite observations because of the improved expression of the ice–albedo feedback process and the ice–eddy interaction process.

Climate change and ice hazards in the Beaufort Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barber, D. G.; McCullough, G.; Babb, D.

2014-01-01

Recent reductions in the summer extent of sea ice have focused the world’s attention on the effects of climate change. Increased CO2-derived global warming is rapidly shrinking the Arctic multi-year ice pack. This shift in ice regimes allows for increasing development opportunities for large oil...... will be a much more complex task than modeling average ice circulation. Given the observed reduction in sea ice extent and thickness this rather counterintuitive situation, associated with a warming climate, poses significant hazards to Arctic marine oil and gas development and marine transportation. Accurate...... forecasting of hazardous ice motion will require improved real-time surface wind and ocean current forecast models capable of ingesting local satellite-derived wind data and/or local, closely-spaced networks of anemometers and improved methods of determining high-frequency components of surface ocean current...

Arctic Ocean sea ice cover during the penultimate glacial and the last interglacial.

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, Ruediger; Fahl, Kirsten; Gierz, Paul; Niessen, Frank; Lohmann, Gerrit

2017-08-29

Coinciding with global warming, Arctic sea ice has rapidly decreased during the last four decades and climate scenarios suggest that sea ice may completely disappear during summer within the next about 50-100 years. Here we produce Arctic sea ice biomarker proxy records for the penultimate glacial (Marine Isotope Stage 6) and the subsequent last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5e). The latter is a time interval when the high latitudes were significantly warmer than today. We document that even under such warmer climate conditions, sea ice existed in the central Arctic Ocean during summer, whereas sea ice was significantly reduced along the Barents Sea continental margin influenced by Atlantic Water inflow. Our proxy reconstruction of the last interglacial sea ice cover is supported by climate simulations, although some proxy data/model inconsistencies still exist. During late Marine Isotope Stage 6, polynya-type conditions occurred off the major ice sheets along the northern Barents and East Siberian continental margins, contradicting a giant Marine Isotope Stage 6 ice shelf that covered the entire Arctic Ocean.Coinciding with global warming, Arctic sea ice has rapidly decreased during the last four decades. Here, using biomarker records, the authors show that permanent sea ice was still present in the central Arctic Ocean during the last interglacial, when high latitudes were warmer than present.

Improving Arctic Sea Ice Observations and Data Access to Support Advances in Sea Ice Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Farrell, S. L.

2017-12-01

The economic and strategic importance of the Arctic region is becoming apparent. One of the most striking and widely publicized changes underway is the declining sea ice cover. Since sea ice is a key component of the climate system, its ongoing loss has serious, and wide-ranging, socio-economic implications. Increasing year-to-year variability in the geographic location, concentration, and thickness of the Arctic ice cover will pose both challenges and opportunities. The sea ice research community must be engaged in sustained Arctic Observing Network (AON) initiatives so as to deliver fit-for-purpose remote sensing data products to a variety of stakeholders including Arctic communities, the weather forecasting and climate modeling communities, industry, local, regional and national governments, and policy makers. An example of engagement is the work currently underway to improve research collaborations between scientists engaged in obtaining and assessing sea ice observational data and those conducting numerical modeling studies and forecasting ice conditions. As part of the US AON, in collaboration with the Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee (IARPC), we are developing a strategic framework within which observers and modelers can work towards the common goal of improved sea ice forecasting. Here, we focus on sea ice thickness, a key varaible of the Arctic ice cover. We describe multi-sensor, and blended, sea ice thickness data products under development that can be leveraged to improve model initialization and validation, as well as support data assimilation exercises. We will also present the new PolarWatch initiative (polarwatch.noaa.gov) and discuss efforts to advance access to remote sensing satellite observations and improve communication with Arctic stakeholders, so as to deliver data products that best address societal needs.

Increased West Antarctic and unchanged East Antarctic ice discharge over the last 7 years

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. S. Gardner

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Ice discharge from large ice sheets plays a direct role in determining rates of sea-level rise. We map present-day Antarctic-wide surface velocities using Landsat 7 and 8 imagery spanning 2013–2015 and compare to earlier estimates derived from synthetic aperture radar, revealing heterogeneous changes in ice flow since ∼ 2008. The new mapping provides complete coastal and inland coverage of ice velocity north of 82.4° S with a mean error of < 10 m yr−1, resulting from multiple overlapping image pairs acquired during the daylight period. Using an optimized flux gate, ice discharge from Antarctica is 1929 ± 40 Gigatons per year (Gt yr−1 in 2015, an increase of 36 ± 15 Gt yr−1 from the time of the radar mapping. Flow accelerations across the grounding lines of West Antarctica's Amundsen Sea Embayment, Getz Ice Shelf and Marguerite Bay on the western Antarctic Peninsula, account for 88 % of this increase. In contrast, glaciers draining the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have been remarkably constant over the period of observation. Including modeled rates of snow accumulation and basal melt, the Antarctic ice sheet lost ice at an average rate of 183 ± 94 Gt yr−1 between 2008 and 2015. The modest increase in ice discharge over the past 7 years is contrasted by high rates of ice sheet mass loss and distinct spatial patters of elevation lowering. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is experiencing high rates of mass loss and displays distinct patterns of elevation lowering that point to a dynamic imbalance. We find modest increase in ice discharge over the past 7 years, which suggests that the recent pattern of mass loss in Antarctica is part of a longer-term phase of enhanced glacier flow initiated in the decades leading up to the first continent-wide radar mapping of ice flow.

Investigating Arctic Sea Ice Survivability in the Beaufort Sea

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Matthew Tooth

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Arctic sea ice extent has continued to decline in recent years, and the fractional coverage of multi-year sea ice has decreased significantly during this period. The Beaufort Sea region has been the site of much of the loss of multi-year sea ice, and it continues to play a large role in the extinction of ice during the melt season. We present an analysis of the influence of satellite-derived ice surface temperature, ice thickness, albedo, and downwelling longwave/shortwave radiation as well as latitude and airborne snow depth estimates on the change in sea ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea from 2009 to 2016 using a Lagrangian tracking database. Results from this analysis indicate that parcels that melt during summer in the Beaufort Sea reside at lower latitudes and have lower ice thickness at the beginning of the melt season in most cases. The influence of sea ice thickness and snow depth observed by IceBridge offers less conclusive results, with some years exhibiting higher thicknesses/depths for melted parcels. Parcels that melted along IceBridge tracks do exhibit lower latitudes and ice thicknesses, however, which indicates that earlier melt and breakup of ice may contribute to a greater likelihood of extinction of parcels in the summer.

Multi-decadal dynamic thinning on the northwest margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Korsgaard, Niels Jákup; Kjær, Kurt H.; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas

records with a 25 m grid resolution and vertical uncertainty of 4.6m. Comparative DEMs were derived from laser altimetry data recorded in 2005 and 2010. Ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) can be partitioned into surface mass balance (SMB) processes (runoff and precipitation) and ice dynamics...

Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5°C Warmer World

Science.gov (United States)

Niederdrenk, Anne Laura; Notz, Dirk

2018-02-01

We examine the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice in scenarios with limited future global warming. To do so, we analyze two sets of observational records that cover the observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice loss per degree of global warming. The observations are combined with 100 simulations of historical and future climate evolution from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Grand Ensemble. Based on the high-sensitivity observations, we find that Arctic September sea ice is lost with low probability (P≈ 10%) for global warming of +1.5°C above preindustrial levels and with very high probability (P> 99%) for global warming of +2°C above preindustrial levels. For the low-sensitivity observations, September sea ice is extremely unlikely to disappear for +1.5°C warming (P≪ 1%) and has low likelihood (P≈ 10%) to disappear even for +2°C global warming. For March, both observational records suggest a loss of 15% to 20% of Arctic sea ice area for 1.5°C to 2°C global warming.

Polar bears and sea ice habitat change

Science.gov (United States)

Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Butterworth, Andy

2017-01-01

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) is an obligate apex predator of Arctic sea ice and as such can be affected by climate warming-induced changes in the extent and composition of pack ice and its impacts on their seal prey. Sea ice declines have negatively impacted some polar bear subpopulations through reduced energy input because of loss of hunting habitats, higher energy costs due to greater ice drift, ice fracturing and open water, and ultimately greater challenges to recruit young. Projections made from the output of global climate models suggest that polar bears in peripheral Arctic and sub-Arctic seas will be reduced in numbers or become extirpated by the end of the twenty-first century if the rate of climate warming continues on its present trajectory. The same projections also suggest that polar bears may persist in the high-latitude Arctic where heavy multiyear sea ice that has been typical in that region is being replaced by thinner annual ice. Underlying physical and biological oceanography provides clues as to why polar bear in some regions are negatively impacted, while bears in other regions have shown no apparent changes. However, continued declines in sea ice will eventually challenge the survival of polar bears and efforts to conserve them in all regions of the Arctic.

Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Kopp, Robert E.; DeConto, Robert M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Hay, Carling C.; Horton, Radley M.; Kulp, Scott; Oppenheimer, Michael; Pollard, David; Strauss, Benjamin H.

2017-12-01

Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93-243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26-98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (versus 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Kopp, Robert E.; DeConto, Robert M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Hay, Carling C.; Horton, Radley M.; Kulp, Scott; Oppenheimer, Michael; Pollard, David; Strauss, Benjamin

2017-01-01

Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93-243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26-98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (versus 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

IceBridge: Bringing a Field Campaign Home

Science.gov (United States)

Woods, J.; Beck, J.; Bartholow, S.

2015-12-01

IceBridge, a six-year NASA mission, is the largest airborne survey of Earth's polar ice ever flown. It will yield an unprecedented three-dimensional view of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets, ice shelves and sea ice. These flights will provide a yearly, multi-instrument look at the behavior of the rapidly changing features of the Greenland and Antarctic ice. Data collected during IceBridge will help scientists bridge the gap in polar observations between NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) -- in orbit since 2003 -- and ICESat-2, planned for 2017. ICESat stopped collecting science data in 2009, making IceBridge critical for ensuring a continuous series of observations. IceBridge will use airborne instruments to map Arctic and Antarctic areas once a year at a minimum, with new campaigns being developed during the Arctic melt season. IceBridge flights are conducted in the spring and summer for the Arctic and in the fall over Antarctica. Other smaller airborne surveys around the world are also part of the IceBridge campaign. IceBridge actively engages the public and educators through a variety of outlets ranging from communications strategies through social media outlets, to larger organized efforts such as PolarTREC. In field activities include blog posts, photo updates, in flight chat sessions, and more intensive live events to include google hangouts, where field team members can interact with the public during a scheduled broadcast. The IceBridge team provides scientists and other team members with the training and support to become communicators in their own right. There is an exciting new initiative where IceBridge will be collaborating with Undergraduate and Graduate students to integrate the next generation of scientists and communicators into the Science Teams. This will be explored through partnerships with institutions that are interested in mentoring through project based initiatives.

Greenland Ice Sheet: High-Elevation Balance and Peripheral Thinning.

Science.gov (United States)

Krabill; Abdalati; Frederick; Manizade; Martin; Sonntag; Swift; Thomas; Wright; Yungel

2000-07-21

Aircraft laser-altimeter surveys over northern Greenland in 1994 and 1999 have been coupled with previously reported data from southern Greenland to analyze the recent mass-balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Above 2000 meters elevation, the ice sheet is in balance on average but has some regions of local thickening or thinning. Thinning predominates at lower elevations, with rates exceeding 1 meter per year close to the coast. Interpolation of our results between flight lines indicates a net loss of about 51 cubic kilometers of ice per year from the entire ice sheet, sufficient to raise sea level by 0.13 millimeter per year-approximately 7% of the observed rise.

Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet.

Science.gov (United States)

Wingham, D J; Shepherd, A; Muir, A; Marshall, G J

2006-07-15

The Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise has long been uncertain. While regional variability in ice dynamics has been revealed, a picture of mass changes throughout the continental ice sheet is lacking. Here, we use satellite radar altimetry to measure the elevation change of 72% of the grounded ice sheet during the period 1992-2003. Depending on the density of the snow giving rise to the observed elevation fluctuations, the ice sheet mass trend falls in the range -5-+85Gtyr-1. We find that data from climate model reanalyses are not able to characterise the contemporary snowfall fluctuation with useful accuracy and our best estimate of the overall mass trend-growth of 27+/-29Gtyr-1-is based on an assessment of the expected snowfall variability. Mass gains from accumulating snow, particularly on the Antarctic Peninsula and within East Antarctica, exceed the ice dynamic mass loss from West Antarctica. The result exacerbates the difficulty of explaining twentieth century sea-level rise.

An ice flow modeling perspective on bedrock adjustment patterns of the Greenland ice sheet

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Olaizola

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Since the launch in 2002 of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE satellites, several estimates of the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS have been produced. To obtain ice mass changes, the GRACE data need to be corrected for the effect of deformation changes of the Earth's crust. Recently, a new method has been proposed where ice mass changes and bedrock changes are simultaneously solved. Results show bedrock subsidence over almost the entirety of Greenland in combination with ice mass loss which is only half of the currently standing estimates. This subsidence can be an elastic response, but it may however also be a delayed response to past changes. In this study we test whether these subsidence patterns are consistent with ice dynamical modeling results. We use a 3-D ice sheet–bedrock model with a surface mass balance forcing based on a mass balance gradient approach to study the pattern and magnitude of bedrock changes in Greenland. Different mass balance forcings are used. Simulations since the Last Glacial Maximum yield a bedrock delay with respect to the mass balance forcing of nearly 3000 yr and an average uplift at present of 0.3 mm yr⁻¹. The spatial pattern of bedrock changes shows a small central subsidence as well as more intense uplift in the south. These results are not compatible with the gravity based reconstructions showing a subsidence with a maximum in central Greenland, thereby questioning whether the claim of halving of the ice mass change is justified.

Early precursors to break-up of the Larsen Ice Shelves, Antarctica

Science.gov (United States)

Scambos, T. A.; Klinger, M.

2017-12-01

Ice flux into the embayments left behind by the collapse of the Larsen A and Larsen B ice shelves surged 2- to 6-fold after their disintegration events in 1995 and 2002. Glacier imbalance in the region since the events has been persistent, with elevation changes indicating a mass loss per year of approximately twice the rate of accumulation (Scambos et al., 2014, TCryo). The proximal cause of the disintegration events was a group of processes arising from the presence of extensive surface melt lakes and hydrofracture. However, precursor changes in the ice shelves beginning more than a decade before the disintegrations have been identified, and coincide with a trend towards reduced sea ice cover and increased foehn winds. Ice flow speeds in the Larsen A and B increased, even in the period prior to the loss of critical inboard areas of the ice shelf (which began in 1998 for the Larsen B), and elevation of the ice shelf surface decreased. Ice shelf surface lowering is interpreted as resulting from actual ice shelf thinning for this area, since field studies on both the Larsen A and B noted the upper firn of the shelf was almost completely converted to ice. Examination of satellite images spanning 1963 - 2014 shows that Larsen B shear margins and some suture zones evolved significantly prior to major ice shelf retreat. Overall, these changes suggest either increased ocean-driven basal melt or effects of increased surface meltwater on grounded glacier outflow are a cause of early shelf weakening that leads eventually to disintegration. Available ocean temperature data show that modified Weddell Deep Water, having a temperature 0.1-0.4°C above the surface freezing point, is present near the former ice fronts in some 1995-2012 profiles, but to date this has not been detected within the embayments or near the glacier grounding lines.

How Rapid Change Affects Deltas in the Arctic Region

Science.gov (United States)

Overeem, I.; Bendixen, M.

2017-12-01

Deltas form where the river drains into the ocean. Consequently, delta depositional processes are impacted by either changes in the respective river drainage basin or by changes in the regional marine environment. In a warming Arctic region rapid change has occurred over the last few decades in both the terrestrial domain as well as in the marine domain. Important terrestrial controls include 1) change in permafrost possibly destabilizing river banks, 2) strong seasonality of river discharge due to a short melting season, 3) high sediment supply if basins are extensively glaciated, 4) lake outbursts and ice jams favoring river flooding. Whereas in the Arctic marine domain sea ice loss promotes wave and storm surge impact, and increased longshore transport. We here ask which of these factors dominate any morphological change in Arctic deltas. First, we analyze hydrological data to assess change in Arctic-wide river discharge characteristics and timing, and sea ice concentration data to map changes in sea ice regime. Based on this observational analysis we set up a number of scenarios of change. We then model hypothetical small-scale delta formation considering change in these primary controls by setting up a numerical delta model, and combining it dynamically with a permafrost model. We find that for typical Greenlandic deltas changes in river forcing due to ice sheet melt dominate the morphological change, which is corroborated by mapping of delta progradation from aerial photos and satellite imagery. Whereas in other areas, along the North Slope and the Canadian Arctic small deltas are more stable or experienced retreat. Our preliminary coupled model allows us to further disentangle the impact of major forcing factors on delta evolution in high-latitude systems.

Ice sheets on plastically-yielding beds

Science.gov (United States)

Hewitt, Ian

2016-11-01

Many fast flowing regions of ice sheets are underlain by a layer of water-saturated sediments, or till. The rheology of the till has been the subject of some controversy, with laboratory tests suggesting almost perfectly plastic behaviour (stress independent of strain rate), but many models adopting a pseudo-viscous description. In this work, we consider the behaviour of glaciers underlain by a plastic bed. The ice is treated as a viscous gravity current, on a bed that allows unconstrained slip above a critical yield stress. This simplified description allows rapid sliding, and aims to investigate 'worst-case' scenarios of possible ice-sheet disintegration. The plastic bed results in an approximate ice-sheet geometry that is primarily controlled by force balance, whilst ice velocity is determined from mass conservation (rather than the other way around, as standard models would hold). The stability of various states is considered, and particular attention is given to the pace at which transitions between unstable states can occur. Finally, we observe that the strength of basal tills depends strongly on pore pressure, and combine the model with a description of subglacial hydrology. Implications for the present-day ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica will be discussed. Funding: ERC Marie Curie FP7 Career Integration Grant.

Spin ice Thin Film: Surface Ordering, Emergent Square ice, and Strain Effects

Science.gov (United States)

Jaubert, L. D. C.; Lin, T.; Opel, T. S.; Holdsworth, P. C. W.; Gingras, M. J. P.

2017-05-01

Motivated by recent realizations of Dy2 Ti2 O7 and Ho2 Ti2 O7 spin ice thin films, and more generally by the physics of confined gauge fields, we study a model spin ice thin film with surfaces perpendicular to the [001] cubic axis. The resulting open boundaries make half of the bonds on the interfaces inequivalent. By tuning the strength of these inequivalent "orphan" bonds, dipolar interactions induce a surface ordering equivalent to a two-dimensional crystallization of magnetic surface charges. This surface ordering may also be expected on the surfaces of bulk crystals. For ultrathin films made of one cubic unit cell, once the surfaces have ordered, a square ice phase is stabilized over a finite temperature window. The square ice degeneracy is lifted at lower temperature and the system orders in analogy with the well-known F transition of the 6-vertex model. To conclude, we consider the addition of strain effects, a possible consequence of interface mismatches at the film-substrate interface. Our simulations qualitatively confirm that strain can lead to a smooth loss of Pauling entropy upon cooling, as observed in recent experiments on Dy2 Ti2 O7 films.

Reconstructing the last Irish Ice Sheet 2: a geomorphologically-driven model of ice sheet growth, retreat and dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Greenwood, Sarah L.; Clark, Chris D.

2009-12-01

The ice sheet that once covered Ireland has a long history of investigation. Much prior work focussed on localised evidence-based reconstructions and ice-marginal dynamics and chronologies, with less attention paid to an ice sheet wide view of the first order properties of the ice sheet: centres of mass, ice divide structure, ice flow geometry and behaviour and changes thereof. In this paper we focus on the latter aspect and use our new, countrywide glacial geomorphological mapping of the Irish landscape (>39 000 landforms), and our analysis of the palaeo-glaciological significance of observed landform assemblages (article Part 1), to build an ice sheet reconstruction yielding these fundamental ice sheet properties. We present a seven stage model of ice sheet evolution, from initiation to demise, in the form of palaeo-geographic maps. An early incursion of ice from Scotland likely coalesced with local ice caps and spread in a south-westerly direction 200 km across Ireland. A semi-independent Irish Ice Sheet was then established during ice sheet growth, with a branching ice divide structure whose main axis migrated up to 140 km from the west coast towards the east. Ice stream systems converging on Donegal Bay in the west and funnelling through the North Channel and Irish Sea Basin in the east emerge as major flow components of the maximum stages of glaciation. Ice cover is reconstructed as extending to the continental shelf break. The Irish Ice Sheet became autonomous (i.e. separate from the British Ice Sheet) during deglaciation and fragmented into multiple ice masses, each decaying towards the west. Final sites of demise were likely over the mountains of Donegal, Leitrim and Connemara. Patterns of growth and decay of the ice sheet are shown to be radically different: asynchronous and asymmetric in both spatial and temporal domains. We implicate collapse of the ice stream system in the North Channel - Irish Sea Basin in driving such asymmetry, since rapid

Increased Land Use by Chukchi Sea Polar Bears in Relation to Changing Sea Ice Conditions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karyn D Rode

Full Text Available Recent observations suggest that polar bears (Ursus maritimus are increasingly using land habitats in some parts of their range, where they have minimal access to their preferred prey, likely in response to loss of their sea ice habitat associated with climatic warming. We used location data from female polar bears fit with satellite radio collars to compare land use patterns in the Chukchi Sea between two periods (1986-1995 and 2008-2013 when substantial summer sea-ice loss occurred. In both time periods, polar bears predominantly occupied sea-ice, although land was used during the summer sea-ice retreat and during the winter for maternal denning. However, the proportion of bears on land for > 7 days between August and October increased between the two periods from 20.0% to 38.9%, and the average duration on land increased by 30 days. The majority of bears that used land in the summer and for denning came to Wrangel and Herald Islands (Russia, highlighting the importance of these northernmost land habitats to Chukchi Sea polar bears. Where bears summered and denned, and how long they spent there, was related to the timing and duration of sea ice retreat. Our results are consistent with other studies supporting increased land use as a common response of polar bears to sea-ice loss. Implications of increased land use for Chukchi Sea polar bears are unclear, because a recent study observed no change in body condition or reproductive indices between the two periods considered here. This result suggests that the ecology of this region may provide a degree of resilience to sea ice loss. However, projections of continued sea ice loss suggest that polar bears in the Chukchi Sea and other parts of the Arctic may increasingly use land habitats in the future, which has the potential to increase nutritional stress and human-polar bear interactions.

Simulating ice thickness and velocity evolution of Upernavik Isstrøm 1849-2012 by forcing prescribed terminus positions in ISSM

Science.gov (United States)

Haubner, Konstanze; Box, Jason E.; Schlegel, Nicole J.; Larour, Eric Y.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Solgaard, Anne M.; Kjeldsen, Kristian K.; Larsen, Signe H.; Rignot, Eric; Dupont, Todd K.; Kjær, Kurt H.

2018-04-01

Tidewater glacier velocity and mass balance are known to be highly responsive to terminus position change. Yet it remains challenging for ice flow models to reproduce observed ice margin changes. Here, using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM; Larour et al. 2012), we simulate the ice velocity and thickness changes of Upernavik Isstrøm (north-western Greenland) by prescribing a collection of 27 observed terminus positions spanning 164 years (1849-2012). The simulation shows increased ice velocity during the 1930s, the late 1970s and between 1995 and 2012 when terminus retreat was observed along with negative surface mass balance anomalies. Three distinct mass balance states are evident in the reconstruction: (1849-1932) with near zero mass balance, (1932-1992) with ice mass loss dominated by ice dynamical flow, and (1998-2012), when increased retreat and negative surface mass balance anomalies led to mass loss that was twice that of any earlier period. Over the multi-decadal simulation, mass loss was dominated by thinning and acceleration responsible for 70 % of the total mass loss induced by prescribed change in terminus position. The remaining 30 % of the total ice mass loss resulted directly from prescribed terminus retreat and decreasing surface mass balance. Although the method can not explain the cause of glacier retreat, it enables the reconstruction of ice flow and geometry during 1849-2012. Given annual or seasonal observed terminus front positions, this method could be a useful tool for evaluating simulations investigating the effect of calving laws.

Scaling of Lift Degradation Due to Anti-Icing Fluids Based Upon the Aerodynamic Acceptance Test

Science.gov (United States)

Broeren, Andy P.; Riley, James T.

2012-01-01

In recent years, the FAA has worked with Transport Canada, National Research Council Canada (NRC) and APS Aviation, Inc. to develop allowance times for aircraft operations in ice-pellet precipitation. These allowance times are critical to ensure safety and efficient operation of commercial and cargo flights. Wind-tunnel testing with uncontaminated anti-icing fluids and fluids contaminated with simulated ice pellets had been carried out at the NRC Propulsion and Icing Wind Tunnel (PIWT) to better understand the flowoff characteristics and resulting aerodynamic effects. The percent lift loss on the thin, high-performance wing model tested in the PIWT was determined at 8 angle of attack and used as one of the evaluation criteria in determining the allowance times. Because it was unclear as to how performance degradations measured on this model were relevant to an actual airplane configuration, some means of interpreting the wing model lift loss was deemed necessary. This paper describes how the lift loss was related to the loss in maximum lift of a Boeing 737-200ADV airplane through the Aerodynamic Acceptance Test (AAT) performed for fluids qualification. A loss in maximum lift coefficient of 5.24 percent on the B737-200ADV airplane (which was adopted as the threshold in the AAT) corresponds to a lift loss of 7.3 percent on the PIWT model at 8 angle of attack. There is significant scatter in the data used to develop the correlation related to varying effects of the anti-icing fluids that were tested and other factors. A statistical analysis indicated the upper limit of lift loss on the PIWT model was 9.2 percent. Therefore, for cases resulting in PIWT model lift loss from 7.3 to 9.2 percent, extra scrutiny of the visual observations is required in evaluating fluid performance with contamination.

Large sea ice outflow into the Nares Strait in 2007

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kwok, R.; Pedersen, L.T.; Gudmandsen, Preben

2010-01-01

Sea ice flux through the Nares Strait is most active during the fall and early winter, ceases in mid- to late winter after the formation of ice arches along the strait, and re-commences after breakup in summer. In 2007, ice arches failed to form. This resulted in the highest outflow of Arctic sea...... at Fram Strait. Clearly, the ice arches control Arctic sea ice outflow. The duration of unobstructed flow explains more than 84% of the variance in the annual area flux. In our record, seasonal stoppages are always associated with the formation of an arch near the same location in the southern Kane Basin...... ice in the 13-year record between 1997 and 2009. The 2007 area and volume outflows of 87 x 10(3) km(2) and 254 km(3) are more than twice their 13-year means. This contributes to the recent loss of the thick, multiyear Arctic sea ice and represents similar to 10% of our estimates of the mean ice export...

Low-latitude ice cores and freshwater availability

Science.gov (United States)

Kehrwald, Natalie Marie

2009-12-01

Recent retreat of Tibetan Plateau glaciers affects at least half a billion people. Himalayan glaciers seasonally release meltwater into tributaries of the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra Rivers and supply freshwater necessary to support agricultural and economic practices. Tibetan Plateau glaciers are retreating more rapidly than mountain glaciers elsewhere in the world, and this retreat is accelerating. The Naimona'nyi (30°27'N; 81°91'E, 6050 m a.s.l), Guliya (35°17'N; 81°29'E, 6710 m a.s.l.) and Dasuopu (28°23'N; 85°43'E, 7200 m a.s.l.) ice cores place this recent retreat into a longer time perspective through quantifying climate parameters such as past temperature, aridity, and atmospheric chemistry. Naimona'nyi has not accumulated mass since at least 1950, as evidenced by the virtual lack of radiogenic isotopes (36Cl, 3 H, and beta radioactivity) present in the ice core. These isotopes were produced by U.S. and Soviet atmospheric thermonuclear bomb tests conducted in the 1950s and 1960s and provide independent dating horizons for the ice cores. Lead-210 dates imply that the uppermost preserved glacial ice on Naimona'nyi formed during the 1940s. While this is the highest documented glacial thinning in the world other glaciers at elevations similar to that of Naimona'nyi, such as Kilimanjaro (3°4'S; 37°21'E, 5893 m a.s.l.), are also losing mass at their summits. The global scope of high-elevation glacial thinning suggests that ablation on the Earth's highest ice fields may be more prevalent as global mean temperatures continue to increase. Glacial thinning has not been taken into account in future projections of regional freshwater availability, and the net mass loss indicates that Himalayan glaciers currently store less freshwater than assumed in models. The acceleration of Tibetan Plateau glacial retreat has been hypothesized to be due in part to deposition of black carbon (BC) from biomass burning on to ice fields, thereby lowering the reflectivity of

Early Winter Sea Ice Dynamics in the Ross Sea from In Situ and Satellite Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Maksym, T.; Ackley, S. F.; Stammerjohn, S. E.; Tison, J. L.; Hoeppner, K.

2017-12-01

The Ross Sea sea ice cover is one of the few regions of the cryosphere that have been expanding in recent decades. However, 2017 saw a significantly delayed autumn ice advance and record low early winter sea ice extent. Understanding the causes and impacts of this variability has been hampered by a lack of in situ observations. A winter cruise into the Ross Sea in April-June 2017 provided some of the only in situ winter observations of sea ice processes in this region in almost 20 years. We present a first look at data from arrays of drifting buoys deployed in the ice pack and outflow from these polynyas, supplemented by a suite of high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data. Additional observations included high-resolution sonar imagery of ice deformation features from an autonomous underwater vehicle, shipboard visual observations of sea ice properties, and in situ measurements of snow and thickness and structural properties. These data show that the delay in ice advance led to a thin, highly dynamic sea ice pack, with substantial ice production and export from the Ross Ice Shelf and Terra Nova Bay polynyas. Despite these high rates of ice production, the pack ice remained thin due to rapid export and northward drift. Compared to the only prior winter observations made in 1995 and 1998, the ice was thinner, with less ridging and snow cover, reflecting a younger ice cover. Granular ice was less prevalent than in these prior cruises, particularly in the outer pack, likely due to less snow ice formation and less pancake ice formation at the advancing ice edge. Despite rapid basal ice growth, the buoy data suggest that deformation may be the dominant mechanism for sea ice thickening in the pack once an initial ice cover forms.

Fine scale monitoring of ice ablation following convective heat transfer: case study based on ice-wedge thermo-erosion on Bylot Island (Canadian High Arctic) and laboratory observations

Science.gov (United States)

Godin, E.; Fortier, D.

2011-12-01

Thermo-erosion gullies often develop in ice-wedge polygons terrace and contribute to the dynamic evolution of the periglacial landscape. When snowmelt surface run-off concentrated into streams and water tracks infiltrate frost cracks, advective heat flow and convective thermal transfer from water to the ice-wedge ice enable the rapid development of tunnels and gullies in the permafrost (Fortier et al. 2007). Fine scale monitoring of the physical interaction between flowing water and ice rich permafrost had already been studied in a context of thermal erosion of a large river banks in Russia (Costard et al. 2003). Ice wedge polygons thermo-erosion process leading to gullying remains to be physically modelled and quantified. The present paper focus on the fine scale monitoring of thermo-erosion physical parameters both in the field and in laboratory. The physical model in laboratory was elaborated using a fixed block of ice monitored by a linear voltage differential transducer (LVDT) and temperature sensors connected to a logger. A water container with controlled discharge and temperature provided the fluid which flowed over the ice through a hose. Water discharge (Q), water temperature (Tw), ice melting temperature (Ti) and ice ablation rate (Ar) were measured. In laboratory, water at 281 Kelvin (K) flowing on the ice (Ti 273 K) made the ice melt at a rate Ar of 0.002 m min-1, under a continuous discharge of ≈ 8 x 10-7 m3 s-1. In the field, a small channel was dug between a stream and an exposed ice-wedge in a pre-existing active gully, where in 2010 large quantities of near zero snowmelt run-off water contributed to several meters of ice wedge ablation and gully development. Screws were fastened into the ice and a ruler was used to measure the ablation rate every minute. The surface temperature of the ice wedge was monitored with thermocouples connected to a logger to obtain the condition of the ice boundary layer. Discharge and water temperature were measured in

On the world's ice ages and changing environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eronen, M.; Olander, H.

1990-07-01

All known ice ages during the earth's history are reviewed. The oldest glaciation occurred around 2.3 billion years ago, followed by a series of large glaciations 950-650, 450-430 and 310-270 million years ago. Continental drift played a major role in these long-term climatic changes. The present Quaternary ice age actually began 17 million years ago, when a large ice mass grew over Antarctica. A detailed account is given of the climatic fluctuations during the Quaternary period (over 2.5 million years). Different stratigraphic records, and the relationship of climatic variations to orbital forcing are discussed. Large environmental changes took place in the course of the climate oscillations. Large ice sheets waxed and waned, global sea-levels fluctuated, forests disappeared from many regions during cold times and advanced during favourable times. The ice masses depressed the earth's crust markedly, and this then rose rapidly when the ice melted. The extent of glacial erosion is also discussed. Finally the postglacial climatic history of the earth is described and the consequences of the possible greenhouse effect are considered.(orig.)

Uncertainty Quantification for Ice Sheet Science and Sea Level Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Boening, C.; Schlegel, N.; Limonadi, D.; Schodlok, M.; Seroussi, H. L.; Larour, E. Y.; Watkins, M. M.

2017-12-01

In order to better quantify uncertainties in global mean sea level rise projections and in particular upper bounds, we aim at systematically evaluating the contributions from ice sheets and potential for extreme sea level rise due to sudden ice mass loss. Here, we take advantage of established uncertainty quantification tools embedded within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) as well as sensitivities to ice/ocean interactions using melt rates and melt potential derived from MITgcm/ECCO2. With the use of these tools, we conduct Monte-Carlo style sampling experiments on forward simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet, by varying internal parameters and boundary conditions of the system over both extreme and credible worst-case ranges. Uncertainty bounds for climate forcing are informed by CMIP5 ensemble precipitation and ice melt estimates for year 2100, and uncertainty bounds for ocean melt rates are derived from a suite of regional sensitivity experiments using MITgcm. Resulting statistics allow us to assess how regional uncertainty in various parameters affect model estimates of century-scale sea level rise projections. The results inform efforts to a) isolate the processes and inputs that are most responsible for determining ice sheet contribution to sea level; b) redefine uncertainty brackets for century-scale projections; and c) provide a prioritized list of measurements, along with quantitative information on spatial and temporal resolution, required for reducing uncertainty in future sea level rise projections. Results indicate that ice sheet mass loss is dependent on the spatial resolution of key boundary conditions - such as bedrock topography and melt rates at the ice-ocean interface. This work is performed at and supported by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Supercomputing time is also supported through a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere program.

Sea-level response to abrupt ocean warming of Antarctic ice shelves

Science.gov (United States)

Pattyn, Frank

2016-04-01

Antarctica's contribution to global sea-level rise increases steadily. A fundamental question remains whether the ice discharge will lead to marine ice sheet instability (MISI) and collapse of certain sectors of the ice sheet or whether ice loss will increase linearly with the warming trends. Therefore, we employ a newly developed ice sheet model of the Antarctic ice sheet, called f.ETISh (fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet model) to simulate ice sheet response to abrupt perturbations in ocean and atmospheric temperature. The f.ETISh model is a vertically integrated hybrid (SSA/SIA) ice sheet model including ice shelves. Although vertically integrated, thermomechanical coupling is ensured through a simplified representation of ice sheet thermodynamics based on an analytical solution of the vertical temperature profile, including strain heating and horizontal advection. The marine boundary is represented by a flux condition either coherent with power-law basal sliding (Pollard & Deconto (2012) based on Schoof (2007)) or according to Coulomb basal friction (Tsai et al., 2015), both taking into account ice-shelf buttressing. Model initialization is based on optimization of the basal friction field. Besides the traditional MISMIP tests, new tests with respect to MISI in plan-view models have been devised. The model is forced with stepwise ocean and atmosphere temperature perturbations. The former is based on a parametrised sub-shelf melt (limited to ice shelves), while the latter is based on present-day mass balance/surface temperature and corrected for elevation changes. Surface melting is introduced using a PDD model. Results show a general linear response in mass loss to ocean warming. Nonlinear response due to MISI occurs under specific conditions and is highly sensitive to the basal conditions near the grounding line, governed by both the initial conditions and the basal sliding/deformation model. The Coulomb friction model leads to significantly higher

An analytically-based method for rapid evaluation of MeV ion loss in tokamaks with low-n perturbations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mynick, H.E.

1993-01-01

Recent work has developed an analytic theory for the stochastic transport of passing MeV ions due to low-n magnetic perturbations, valid for frequencies from ω = 0 to ω ∼ ω TAE ∼ 100 kHz, and for modes with multiple harmonics and nontrivial radial structure, which predicts stochastic thresholds in agreement with guiding-center (GC) results. Obtaining GC results is time consuming, typically requiring hours of computer time to obtain loss results for a single point in parameter space. Along with earlier theory developed for the stochastic transport of trapped particles in such perturbations, this theory gives the basis for a far more rapid means of numerically assessing energetic ion loss in a given configuration, somewhat akin to the RIPLOS code for rapid evaluation of loss due to TF ripple. The authors present the details of implementing such a code, now being developed. The implementation also raises some further theoretical issues. The currently available stochastic thresholds for passing and trapped particles are not the same, and an analytic understanding of the transition between them awaits development

Development of CFD-based icing model for wind turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Marie Cecilie; Martinez, Benjamin; Yin, Chungen

2015-01-01

Operation of wind turbines in cold climate areas is challenged by icing-induced problems, such as loss of production, safety issues and blade fatique. Production losses are especially a big issue in Sweden, and due to difficulties with on-site measurements, simulations are often used to get an un...

A one stop website for sharing sea ice, ocean and ice sheet data over the polar regions

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Z.; Cheng, X.; Liu, J.; Hui, F.; Ding, Y.

2017-12-01

The polar regions, including the Arctic and Antarctic, are changing rapidly. Our capabilities to remotely monitor the state of the polar regions are increasing greatly. Satellite and airborne technologies have been deployed and further improvements are underway. Meanwhile, various algorithms have been developed to retrieve important parameters to maximize the effectiveness of available remote sensing data. These technologies and algorithms promise to greatly increase our understanding of variations in sea ice, ocean and ice sheet. However, so much information is scattered out there. It is challenging to find exactly what you are looking for by just searching it through the network. Therefore, we try to establish a common platform to sharing some key parameters for the polar regions. A group of scientists from Beijing Normal University and University at Albany developed a website as a "one-stop shop" for the current state of the polar regions. The website provides real-time (or near real-time) key parameters derived from a variety of operational satellites in an understandable, accessible and credible way. Three types of parameter, which are sea ice, ocean and ice sheet respectively, are shown and available to be downloaded in the website. Several individual parameters are contained in a specific type of parameter. The parameters of sea ice include sea ice concentration, sea ice thickness, melt pond, sea ice leads and sea ice drift. The ocean parameters contain sea surface temperature and sea surface wind. Ice sheet balance, ice velocity and some other parameters are classified into the type of ice sheet parameter. Some parameters are well-calibrated and available to be obtained from other websites, such as sea ice concentration, sea ice thickness sea surface temperature. Since these parameters are retrieved from different sensors, such as SSMI, AMSR2 etc., data format, spatial resolution of the parameters are not unified. We collected and reprocessed these

Phytophthora capsici - Loss of Heterozygosity (LOH): A Widespread Mechanism for Rapid Adaptation (7th Annual SFAF Meeting, 2012)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mudge, Joanne

2012-06-01

Joanne Mudge on "Phytophthora capsici - Loss of Heterozygosity (LOH): A Widespread Mechanism for Rapid Mutation" at the 2012 Sequencing, Finishing, Analysis in the Future Meeting held June 5-7, 2012 in Santa Fe, New Mexico.

The Sea-Ice Floe Size Distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Stern, H. L., III; Schweiger, A. J. B.; Zhang, J.; Steele, M.

2017-12-01

The size distribution of ice floes in the polar seas affects the dynamics and thermodynamics of the ice cover and its interaction with the ocean and atmosphere. Ice-ocean models are now beginning to include the floe size distribution (FSD) in their simulations. In order to characterize seasonal changes of the FSD and provide validation data for our ice-ocean model, we calculated the FSD in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas over two spring-summer-fall seasons (2013 and 2014) using more than 250 cloud-free visible-band scenes from the MODIS sensors on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, identifying nearly 250,000 ice floes between 2 and 30 km in diameter. We found that the FSD follows a power-law distribution at all locations, with a seasonally varying exponent that reflects floe break-up in spring, loss of smaller floes in summer, and the return of larger floes after fall freeze-up. We extended the results to floe sizes from 10 m to 2 km at selected time/space locations using more than 50 high-resolution radar and visible-band satellite images. Our analysis used more data and applied greater statistical rigor than any previous study of the FSD. The incorporation of the FSD into our ice-ocean model resulted in reduced sea-ice thickness, mainly in the marginal ice zone, which improved the simulation of sea-ice extent and yielded an earlier ice retreat. We also examined results from 17 previous studies of the FSD, most of which report power-law FSDs but with widely varying exponents. It is difficult to reconcile the range of results due to different study areas, seasons, and methods of analysis. We review the power-law representation of the FSD in these studies and discuss some mathematical details that are important to consider in any future analysis.

Modelling snow ice and superimposed ice on landfast sea ice in Kongsfjorden, Svalbard

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caixin Wang

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Snow ice and superimposed ice formation on landfast sea ice in a Svalbard fjord, Kongsfjorden, was investigated with a high-resolution thermodynamic snow and sea-ice model, applying meteorological weather station data as external forcing. The model shows that sea-ice formation occurs both at the ice bottom and at the snow/ice interface. Modelling results indicated that the total snow ice and superimposed ice, which formed at the snow/ice interface, was about 14 cm during the simulation period, accounting for about 15% of the total ice mass and 35% of the total ice growth. Introducing a time-dependent snow density improved the modelled results, and a time-dependent oceanic heat flux parameterization yielded reasonable ice growth at the ice bottom. Model results suggest that weather conditions, in particular air temperature and precipitation, as well as snow thermal properties and surface albedo are the most critical factors for the development of snow ice and superimposed ice in Kongsfjorden. While both warming air and higher precipitation led to increased snow ice and superimposed ice forming in Kongsfjorden in the model runs, the processes were more sensitive to precipitation than to air temperature.

An ice-sheet-wide framework for englacial attenuation from ice-penetrating radar data

Science.gov (United States)

Jordan, T. M.; Bamber, J. L.; Williams, C. N.; Paden, J. D.; Siegert, M. J.; Huybrechts, P.; Gagliardini, O.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.

2016-07-01

Radar inference of the bulk properties of glacier beds, most notably identifying basal melting, is, in general, derived from the basal reflection coefficient. On the scale of an ice sheet, unambiguous determination of basal reflection is primarily limited by uncertainty in the englacial attenuation of the radio wave, which is an Arrhenius function of temperature. Existing bed-returned power algorithms for deriving attenuation assume that the attenuation rate is regionally constant, which is not feasible at an ice-sheet-wide scale. Here we introduce a new semi-empirical framework for deriving englacial attenuation, and, to demonstrate its efficacy, we apply it to the Greenland Ice Sheet. A central feature is the use of a prior Arrhenius temperature model to estimate the spatial variation in englacial attenuation as a first guess input for the radar algorithm. We demonstrate regions of solution convergence for two input temperature fields and for independently analysed field campaigns. The coverage achieved is a trade-off with uncertainty and we propose that the algorithm can be "tuned" for discrimination of basal melt (attenuation loss uncertainty ˜ 5 dB). This is supported by our physically realistic ( ˜ 20 dB) range for the basal reflection coefficient. Finally, we show that the attenuation solution can be used to predict the temperature bias of thermomechanical ice sheet models and is in agreement with known model temperature biases at the Dye 3 ice core.

Sea Ice, Hydrocarbon Extraction, Rain-on-Snow and Tundra Reindeer Nomadism in Arctic Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Forbes, B. C.; Kumpula, T.; Meschtyb, N.; Laptander, R.; Macias-Fauria, M.; Zetterberg, P.; Verdonen, M.

2015-12-01

It is assumed that retreating sea ice in the Eurasian Arctic will accelerate hydrocarbon development and associated tanker traffic along Russia's Northern Sea Route. However, oil and gas extraction along the Kara and Barents Sea coasts will likely keep developing rapidly regardless of whether the Northwest Eurasian climate continues to warm. Less certain are the real and potential linkages to regional biota and social-ecological systems. Reindeer nomadism continues to be a vitally important livelihood for indigenous tundra Nenets and their large herds of semi-domestic reindeer. Warming summer air temperatures over the NW Russian Arctic have been linked to increases in tundra productivity, longer growing seasons, and accelerated growth of tall deciduous shrubs. These temperature increases have, in turn, been linked to more frequent and sustained summer high-pressure systems over West Siberia, but not to sea ice retreat. At the same time, winters have been warming and rain-on-snow (ROS) events have become more frequent and intense, leading to record-breaking winter and spring mortality of reindeer. What is driving this increase in ROS frequency and intensity is not clear. Recent modelling and simulation have found statistically significant near-surface atmospheric warming and precipitation increases during autumn and winter over Arctic coastal lands in proximity to regions of sea-ice loss. During the winter of 2013-14 an extensive and lasting ROS event led to the starvation of 61,000 reindeer out of a population of ca. 300,000 animals on Yamal Peninsula, West Siberia. Historically, this is the region's largest recorded mortality episode. More than a year later, participatory fieldwork with nomadic herders during spring-summer 2015 revealed that the ecological and socio-economic impacts from this extreme event will unfold for years to come. There is an urgent need to understand whether and how ongoing Barents and Kara Sea ice retreat may affect the region's ancient

An Initial Study of the Fundamentals of Ice Crystal Icing Physics in the NASA Propulsion Systems Laboratory

Science.gov (United States)

Struk, Peter M.; Ratvasky, Thomas P.; Bencic, Timothy J.; Van Zante, Judith F.; King, Michael C.; Tsao, Jen-Ching; Bartkus, Tadas P.

2017-01-01

This paper presents results from an initial study of the fundamental physics of ice-crystal ice accretion using the NASA Propulsion Systems Lab (PSL). Ice accretion due to the ingestion of ice-crystals is being attributed to numerous jet-engine power-loss events. The NASA PSL is an altitude jet-engine test facility which has recently added a capability to inject ice particles into the flow. NASA is evaluating whether this facility, in addition to full-engine and motor-driven-rig tests, can be used for more fundamental ice-accretion studies that simulate the different mixed-phase icing conditions along the core flow passage of a turbo-fan engine compressor. The data from such fundamental accretion tests will be used to help develop and validate models of the accretion process. The present study utilized a NACA0012 airfoil. The mixed-phase conditions were generated by partially freezing the liquid-water droplets ejected from the spray bars. This paper presents data regarding (1) the freeze out characteristics of the cloud, (2) changes in aerothermal conditions due to the presence of the cloud, and (3) the ice accretion characteristics observed on the airfoil model. The primary variable in this test was the PSL plenum humidity which was systematically varied for two duct-exit-plane velocities (85 and 135 ms) as well as two particle size clouds (15 and 50 m MVDi). The observed clouds ranged from fully glaciated to fully liquid, where the liquid clouds were at least partially supercooled. The air total temperature decreased at the test section when the cloud was activated due to evaporation. The ice accretions observed ranged from sharp arrow-like accretions, characteristic of ice-crystal erosion, to cases with double-horn shapes, characteristic of supercooled water accretions.

Quantifying the Precipitation Loss of Radiation Belt Electrons during a Rapid Dropout Event

Science.gov (United States)

Pham, K. H.; Tu, W.; Xiang, Z.

2017-12-01

Relativistic electron flux in the radiation belt can drop by orders of magnitude within the timespan of hours. In this study, we used the drift-diffusion model that includes azimuthal drift and pitch angle diffusion of electrons to simulate low-altitude electron distribution observed by POES/MetOp satellites for rapid radiation belt electron dropout event occurring on May 1, 2013. The event shows fast dropout of MeV energy electrons at L>4 over a few hours, observed by the Van Allen Probes mission. By simulating the electron distributions observed by multiple POES satellites, we resolve the precipitation loss with both high spatial and temporal resolution and a range of energies. We estimate the pitch angle diffusion coefficients as a function of energy, pitch angle, and L-shell, and calculate corresponding electron lifetimes during the event. The simulation results show fast electron precipitation loss at L>4 during the electron dropout, with estimated electron lifetimes on the order of half an hour for MeV energies. The electron loss rate show strong energy dependence with faster loss at higher energies, which suggest that this dropout event is dominated by quick and localized scattering process that prefers higher energy electrons. The estimated pitch angle diffusion rates from the model are then compared with in situ wave measurements from Van Allen Probes to uncover the underlying wave-particle-interaction mechanisms that are responsible for the fast electron precipitation. Comparing the resolved precipitation loss with the observed electron dropouts at high altitudes, our results will suggest the relative role of electron precipitation loss and outward radial diffusion to the radiation belt dropouts during storm and non-storm times, in addition to its energy and L dependence.

Rate of Mass Loss Across the Instability Threshold for Thwaites Glacier Determines Rate of Mass Loss for Entire Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Waibel, M. S.; Hulbe, C. L.; Jackson, C. S.; Martin, D. F.

2018-01-01

Rapid change now underway on Thwaites Glacier (TG) raises concern that a threshold for unstoppable grounding line retreat has been or is about to be crossed. We use a high-resolution ice sheet model to examine the mechanics of TG self-sustained retreat by nudging the grounding line just past the point of instability. We find that by modifying surface slope in the region of the grounding line, the rate of the forcing dictates the rate of retreat, even after the external forcing is removed. Grounding line retreats that begin faster proceed more rapidly because the shorter time interval for the grounding line to erode into the grounded ice sheet means relatively thicker ice and larger driving stress upstream of the boundary. Retreat is sensitive to short-duration re-advances associated with reduced external forcing where the bathymetry allows regrounding, even when an instability is invoked.

ICESat-2, its retrievals of ice sheet elevation change and sea ice freeboard, and potential synergies with CryoSat-2

Science.gov (United States)

Neumann, Thomas; Markus, Thorsten; Smith, Benjamin; Kwok, Ron

2017-04-01

Understanding the causes and magnitudes of changes in the cryosphere remains a priority for Earth science research. Over the past decade, NASA's and ESA's Earth-observing satellites have documented a decrease in both the areal extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice, and an ongoing loss of grounded ice from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Understanding the pace and mechanisms of these changes requires long-term observations of ice-sheet mass, sea-ice thickness, and sea-ice extent. NASA's ICESat-2 mission is the next-generation space-borne laser altimeter mission and will use three pairs of beams, each pair separated by about 3 km across-track with a pair spacing of 90 m. The spot size is 17 m with an along-track sampling interval of 0.7 m. This measurement concept is a result of the lessons learned from the original ICESat mission. The multi-beam approach is critical for removing the effects of ice sheet surface slope from the elevation change measurements of most interest. For sea ice, the dense spatial sampling (eliminating along-track gaps) and the small footprint size are especially useful for sea surface height measurements in the, often narrow, leads needed for sea ice freeboard and ice thickness retrievals. Currently, algorithms are being developed to calculate ice sheet elevation change and sea ice freeboard from ICESat-2 data. The orbits of ICESat-2 and Cryosat-2 both converge at 88 degrees of latitude, though the orbit altitude differences result in different ground track patterns between the two missions. This presentation will present an overview of algorithm approaches and how ICESat-2 and Cryosat-2 data may augment each other.

Evolution of Pine Island Glacier subglacial conditions in response to 18 years of ice flow acceleration

Science.gov (United States)

Brisbourne, A.; Bougamont, M. H.; Christoffersen, P.; Cornford, S. L.; Nias, I.; Vaughan, D.; Smith, A.

2017-12-01

Antarctica's main contribution to sea-level rise originates from the Amundsen Coast, when warm ocean water intrudes onto the continental shelf. As a result, strong melting beneath the ice shelves induces thinning near the grounding line of glaciers, which is ensued by large ice flow speed up diffusing rapidly inland. In particular, ice loss from Pine Island Glacier (PIG) accounts for 20% of the total ice loss in West Antarctica, amounting to 0.12 mm yr-1 of global sea-level rise. Forecasting the future flow of Amundsen Coast glaciers is however hindered by large uncertainties regarding how the thinning initiated at the grounding line is transmitted upstream, and how the grounded flow will ultimately respond. This work aims at elucidating the role of subglacial processes beneath PIG tributaries in modulating the ice flow response to frontal perturbations. We used the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM 2.0) to perform numerical inversions of PIG surface velocity as observed in 1996 and 2014. Over that time period, ice flow acceleration has been widespread over PIG's basin, and the inversions provide insights into the related evolution of the basal thermal and stress conditions. We assume the latter to be directly related to changes in the properties of a soft sediment (till) layer known to exist beneath PIG. We find that the overall bed strength has weakened by 18% in the region of enhanced flow, and that the annual melt production for PIG catchment increased by 25% between 1996 and 2014. Specifically, regions of high melt production are located in the southern tributaries, where the overall stronger bed allows for more frictional melting. However, we find no significant and widespread change in the basal strength of that region, and we infer that the water produced is transported away in a concentrated hydrological system, without much interaction with the till layer. In contrast, we find that relatively less basal melting occurs elsewhere in the catchment, where the

Ocean wave generation by collapsing ice shelves

Science.gov (United States)

Macayeal, D. R.; Bassis, J. N.; Okal, E. A.; Aster, R. C.; Cathles, L. M.

2008-12-01

The 28-29 February, 2008, break-up of the Wilkins Ice Shelf, Antarctica, exemplifies the now-familiar, yet largely unexplained pattern of explosive ice-shelf break-up. While environmental warming is a likely ultimate cause of explosive break-up, several key aspects of their short-term behavior need to be explained: (1) The abrupt, near-simultaneous onset of iceberg calving across long spans of the ice front margin; (2) High outward drift velocity (about 0.3 m/s) of a leading phalanx of tabular icebergs that originate from the seaward edge of the intact ice shelf prior to break-up; (3) Rapid coverage of the ocean surface in the wake of this leading phalanx by small, capsized and dismembered tabular icebergs; (4) Extremely large gravitational potential energy release rates, e.g., up to 3 × 1010 W; (5) Lack of proximal iceberg-calving triggers that control the timing of break-up onset and that maintain the high break-up calving rates through to the conclusion of the event. Motivated by seismic records obtained from icebergs and the Ross Ice Shelf that show hundreds of micro- tsunamis emanating from near the ice shelf front, we re-examine the basic dynamic features of ice- shelf/ocean-wave interaction and, in particular, examine the possibility that collapsing ice shelves themselves are a source of waves that stimulate the disintegration process. We propose that ice-shelf generated surface-gravity waves associated with initial calving at an arbitrary seed location produce stress perturbations capable of triggering the onset of calving on the entire ice front. Waves generated by parting detachment rifts, iceberg capsize and break-up act next to stimulate an inverted submarine landslide (ice- slide) process, where gravitational potential energy released by upward movement of buoyant ice is radiated as surface gravity waves in the wake of the advancing phalanx of tabular icebergs. We conclude by describing how field research and remote sensing can be used to test the

Variable Basal Melt Rates of Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves, 1994-2016

Science.gov (United States)

Adusumilli, Susheel; Fricker, Helen Amanda; Siegfried, Matthew R.; Padman, Laurie; Paolo, Fernando S.; Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M.

2018-05-01

We have constructed 23-year (1994-2016) time series of Antarctic Peninsula (AP) ice-shelf height change using data from four satellite radar altimeters (ERS-1, ERS-2, Envisat, and CryoSat-2). Combining these time series with output from atmospheric and firn models, we partitioned the total height-change signal into contributions from varying surface mass balance, firn state, ice dynamics, and basal mass balance. On the Bellingshausen coast of the AP, ice shelves lost 84 ± 34 Gt a-1 to basal melting, compared to contributions of 50 ± 7 Gt a-1 from surface mass balance and ice dynamics. Net basal melting on the Weddell coast was 51 ± 71 Gt a-1. Recent changes in ice-shelf height include increases over major AP ice shelves driven by changes in firn state. Basal melt rates near Bawden Ice Rise, a major pinning point of Larsen C Ice Shelf, showed large increases, potentially leading to substantial loss of buttressing if sustained.

Projected polar bear sea ice habitat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamilton, Stephen G; Castro de la Guardia, Laura; Derocher, Andrew E; Sahanatien, Vicki; Tremblay, Bruno; Huard, David

2014-01-01

Sea ice across the Arctic is declining and altering physical characteristics of marine ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have been identified as vulnerable to changes in sea ice conditions. We use sea ice projections for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 2006 - 2100 to gain insight into the conservation challenges for polar bears with respect to habitat loss using metrics developed from polar bear energetics modeling. Shifts away from multiyear ice to annual ice cover throughout the region, as well as lengthening ice-free periods, may become critical for polar bears before the end of the 21st century with projected warming. Each polar bear population in the Archipelago may undergo 2-5 months of ice-free conditions, where no such conditions exist presently. We identify spatially and temporally explicit ice-free periods that extend beyond what polar bears require for nutritional and reproductive demands. Under business-as-usual climate projections, polar bears may face starvation and reproductive failure across the entire Archipelago by the year 2100.

Ice-Dammed Lake Drainage Evolution at Russell Glacier, West Greenland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonathan L. Carrivick

2017-11-01

Full Text Available KEY POINTS/HIGHLIGHTSTwo rapid ice-dammed lake drainage events gauged and ice dam geometry measured.A melt enlargement model is developed to examine the evolution of drainage mechanism(s.Lake temperature dominated conduit melt enlargement and we hypothesize a flotation trigger.Glaciological and hydraulic factors that control the timing and mechanisms of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs remain poorly understood. This study used measurements of lake level at 15 min intervals and known lake bathymetry to calculate lake outflow during two GLOF events from the northern margin of Russell Glacier, west Greenland. We used measured ice surface elevation, interpolated subglacial topography and likely conduit geometry to inform a melt enlargement model of the outburst evolution. The model was tuned to best-fit the hydrograph rising limb and timing of peak discharge in both events; it achieved Mean Absolute Errors of <5%. About one third of the way through the rising limb, conduit melt enlargement became the dominant drainage mechanism. Lake water temperature, which strongly governed the enlargement rate, preconditioned the high peak discharge and short duration of these floods. We hypothesize that both GLOFs were triggered by ice dam flotation, and localized hydraulic jacking sustained most of their early-stage outflow, explaining the particularly rapid water egress in comparison to that recorded at other ice-marginal lakes. As ice overburden pressure relative to lake water hydraulic head diminished, flow became confined to a subglacial conduit. This study has emphasized the inter-play between ice dam thickness and lake level, drainage timing, lake water temperature and consequently rising stage lake outflow and flood evolution.

Detecting high spatial variability of ice shelf basal mass balance, Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Berger

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Ice shelves control the dynamic mass loss of ice sheets through buttressing and their integrity depends on the spatial variability of their basal mass balance (BMB, i.e. the difference between refreezing and melting. Here, we present an improved technique – based on satellite observations – to capture the small-scale variability in the BMB of ice shelves. As a case study, we apply the methodology to the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, and derive its yearly averaged BMB at 10 m horizontal gridding. We use mass conservation in a Lagrangian framework based on high-resolution surface velocities, atmospheric-model surface mass balance and hydrostatic ice-thickness fields (derived from TanDEM-X surface elevation. Spatial derivatives are implemented using the total-variation differentiation, which preserves abrupt changes in flow velocities and their spatial gradients. Such changes may reflect a dynamic response to localized basal melting and should be included in the mass budget. Our BMB field exhibits much spatial detail and ranges from −14.7 to 8.6 m a−1 ice equivalent. Highest melt rates are found close to the grounding line where the pressure melting point is high, and the ice shelf slope is steep. The BMB field agrees well with on-site measurements from phase-sensitive radar, although independent radar profiling indicates unresolved spatial variations in firn density. We show that an elliptical surface depression (10 m deep and with an extent of 0.7 km × 1.3 km lowers by 0.5 to 1.4 m a−1, which we tentatively attribute to a transient adaptation to hydrostatic equilibrium. We find evidence for elevated melting beneath ice shelf channels (with melting being concentrated on the channel's flanks. However, farther downstream from the grounding line, the majority of ice shelf channels advect passively (i.e. no melting nor refreezing toward the ice shelf front. Although the absolute, satellite

A century of ice retreat on Kilimanjaro: the mapping reloaded

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. J. Cullen

2013-03-01

Full Text Available A new and consistent time series of glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro over the last century has been established by re-interpreting two historical maps and processing nine satellite images, which removes uncertainty about the location and extent of past and present ice bodies. Three-dimensional visualization techniques were used in conjunction with aerial and ground-based photography to facilitate the interpretation of ice boundaries over eight epochs between 1912 and 2011. The glaciers have retreated from their former extent of 11.40 km2 in 1912 to 1.76 km2 in 2011, which represents a total loss of about 85% of the ice cover over the last 100 yr. The total loss of ice cover is in broad agreement with previous estimates, but to further characterize the spatial and temporal variability of glacier retreat a cluster analysis using topographical information (elevation, slope and aspect was performed to segment the ice cover as observed in 1912, which resulted in three glacier zones being identified. Linear extrapolation of the retreat in each of the three identified glacier assemblages implies the ice cover on the western slopes of Kilimanjaro will be gone before 2020, while the remaining ice bodies on the plateau and southern slopes will most likely disappear by 2040. It is highly unlikely that any body of ice will be present on Kilimanjaro after 2060 if present-day climatological conditions are maintained. Importantly, the geo-statistical approach developed in this study provides us with an additional tool to characterize the physical processes governing glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro. It remains clear that, to use glacier response to unravel past climatic conditions on Kilimanjaro, the transition from growth to decay of the plateau glaciers must be further resolved, in particular the mechanisms responsible for vertical cliff development.

Bathymetry and retreat of Southeast Greenland glaciers from Operation IceBridge and Ocean Melting Greenland data

Science.gov (United States)

Millan, R.; Rignot, E. J.; Morlighem, M.; Bjork, A. A.; Mouginot, J.; Wood, M.

2017-12-01

Southeast Greenland has been one of the largest contributors to ice mass loss in Greenland in part because of significant changes in glacier dynamics. The leading hypothesis for the changes in glacier dynamics is that enhanced thermal forcing from the ocean has dislodged a number of glaciers from their anchoring positions and some of them retreated rapidly along a reverse bed. The glaciers response has been observed to vary significantly from one fjord to the next, but until now there was not enough data to understand or interpret these changes. In particular, there was no data on glacier bed topography and seafloor bathymetry in the fjords. Here we present the results of new fjord mapping by the NASA Ocean Melting Greenland mission combined with a recent high-resolution airborne gravity survey by NASA Operation IceBridge. We combine these data with a reconstruction of the bed using a mass conservation approach upstream extending into the glacial fjords for the first time. In the fjord and along the ice-ocean transition, we employ a 3D inversion of gravity data to infer the bed elevation along a set of 9 survey boxes spanning south of Helheim Glacier to the southern tip of Southeast Greenland. We combine the results with an analysis of the glacier front history since the 1930's and Conductivity Temperature Depth data obtained in the fjord by OMG in 2016. The data reveals bed elevations several 100-m deeper than previously thought, for almost all the glaciers, up to 500 m for some of them. For many glaciers, the bed profiles help to completely understand the history of retreat of the glaciers. For instance, glaciers stranded on sills have been stable; glaciers on a reverse slope have retreated rapidly; and glaciers with a normal slope have retreated slowly. The mapping also helps document the extent of the marine portion of the glacier basins. In many of the fjords, we document the presence of warm, salty Atlantic Water which fuels large melt rates. We employ

Ice shelf thickness change from 2010 to 2017

Science.gov (United States)

Hogg, A.; Shepherd, A.; Gilbert, L.; Muir, A. S.

2017-12-01

Floating ice shelves fringe 74 % of Antarctica's coastline, providing a direct link between the ice sheet and the surrounding oceans. Over the last 25 years, ice shelves have retreated, thinned, and collapsed catastrophically. While change in the mass of floating ice shelves has only a modest steric impact on the rate of sea-level rise, their loss can affect the mass balance of the grounded ice-sheet by influencing the rate of ice flow inland, due to the buttressing effect. Here we use CryoSat-2 altimetry data to map the detailed pattern of ice shelf thickness change in Antarctica. We exploit the dense spatial sampling and repeat coverage provided by the CryoSat-2 synthetic aperture radar interferometric mode (SARIn) to investigate data acquired between 2010 to the present day. We find that ice shelf thinning rates can exhibit large fluctuations over short time periods, and that the improved spatial resolution of CryoSat-2 enables us to resolve the spatial pattern of thinning with ever greater detail in Antarctica. In the Amundsen Sea, ice shelves at the terminus of the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers have thinned at rates in excess of 5 meters per year for more than two decades. We observe the highest rates of basal melting near to the ice sheet grounding line, reinforcing the importance of high resolution datasets. On the Antarctic Peninsula, in contrast to the 3.8 m per decade of thinning observed since 1992, we measure an increase in the surface elevation of the Larsen-C Ice-Shelf during the CryoSat-2 period.

Middle-to-late Holocene palaeoenvironmental reconstruction from the A294 ice-cave record (Central Pyrenees, northern Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Sancho, Carlos; Belmonte, Ánchel; Bartolomé, Miguel; Moreno, Ana; Leunda, María; López-Martínez, Jerónimo

2018-02-01

Perennial ice deposits in caves represent unique, but underexplored, terrestrial sequences that potentially contain outstanding palaeoclimatic records. Here, we present a pioneer palaeoenvironmental study of an ice deposit preserved in a small sag-type cave (A294) in the Central Pyrenees (northern Iberian Peninsula). The 9.25-m-thick sequence, which is dated from 6100 ± 107 to 1888 ± 64 cal BP, represents the oldest known firn ice record worldwide. The stratigraphy (detrital layers, unconformities, and cross stratification), plant macrofossils, and isotopic signature (similarity between the ice linear distribution, δ2H = 7.83δ18O + 8.4, and the Global Meteoric Water Line) of the ice point to the diagenesis of snow introduced to the cave by winter snowstorms. Four phases of rapid ice accumulation (6100-5515, 4945-4250, 3810-3155, and 2450-1890 cal BP) are related to wetter and colder winters. Comparison of the isotopic composition (δ18O and deuterium excess) of the ice with other paleoclimate records show that both source effects and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mechanism exert a dominant influence on the ice cave record. The NAO signal may be a combination of source effects and rainfall amount. Three intervals with low ice accumulation occurred between the phases of rapid accumulation and were related to drier, and possibly warmer, winters. These centennial-scale episodes appear to be in-phase with regional arid events, as established from high altitude lacustrine records and can be correlated to global Rapid Climate Change events. The current warming trend has dramatically decreased the volume of the ice deposit in cave A294.

Pressure melting and ice skating

Science.gov (United States)

Colbeck, S. C.

1995-10-01

Pressure melting cannot be responsible for the low friction of ice. The pressure needed to reach the melting temperature is above the compressive failure stress and, if it did occur, high squeeze losses would result in very thin films. Pure liquid water cannot coexist with ice much below -20 °C at any pressure and friction does not increase suddenly in that range. If frictional heating and pressure melting contribute equally, the length of the wetted contact could not exceed 15 μm at a speed of 5 m/s, which seems much too short. If pressure melting is the dominant process, the water films are less than 0.08 μm thick because of the high pressures.

Ice, Ice, Baby!

Science.gov (United States)

Hamilton, C.

2008-12-01

The Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) has developed an outreach program based on hands-on activities called "Ice, Ice, Baby". These lessons are designed to teach the science principles of displacement, forces of motion, density, and states of matter. These properties are easily taught through the interesting topics of glaciers, icebergs, and sea level rise in K-8 classrooms. The activities are fun, engaging, and simple enough to be used at science fairs and family science nights. Students who have participated in "Ice, Ice, Baby" have successfully taught these to adults and students at informal events. The lessons are based on education standards which are available on our website www.cresis.ku.edu. This presentation will provide information on the activities, survey results from teachers who have used the material, and other suggested material that can be used before and after the activities.

Fundamental Ice Crystal Accretion Physics Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Struk, Peter M.; Broeren, Andy P.; Tsao, Jen-Ching; Vargas, Mario; Wright, William B.; Currie, Tom; Knezevici, Danny; Fuleki, Dan

2012-01-01

Due to numerous engine power-loss events associated with high-altitude convective weather, ice accretion within an engine due to ice crystal ingestion is being investigated. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada are starting to examine the physical mechanisms of ice accretion on surfaces exposed to ice-crystal and mixed-phase conditions. In November 2010, two weeks of testing occurred at the NRC Research Altitude Facility utilizing a single wedge-type airfoil designed to facilitate fundamental studies while retaining critical features of a compressor stator blade or guide vane. The airfoil was placed in the NRC cascade wind tunnel for both aerodynamic and icing tests. Aerodynamic testing showed excellent agreement compared with CFD data on the icing pressure surface and allowed calculation of heat transfer coefficients at various airfoil locations. Icing tests were performed at Mach numbers of 0.2 to 0.3, total pressures from 93 to 45 kPa, and total temperatures from 5 to 15 C. Ice and liquid water contents ranged up to 20 and 3 g/m3, respectively. The ice appeared well adhered to the surface in the lowest pressure tests (45 kPa) and, in a particular case, showed continuous leading-edge ice growth to a thickness greater than 15 mm in 3 min. Such widespread deposits were not observed in the highest pressure tests, where the accretions were limited to a small area around the leading edge. The suction surface was typically ice-free in the tests at high pressure, but not at low pressure. The icing behavior at high and low pressure appeared to be correlated with the wet-bulb temperature, which was estimated to be above 0 C in tests at 93 kPa and below 0 C in tests at lower pressure, the latter enhanced by more evaporative cooling of water. The authors believe that the large ice accretions observed in the low pressure tests would undoubtedly cause the aerodynamic performance of a compressor component

Grounding line transient response in marine ice sheet models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. S. Drouet

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Marine ice-sheet stability is mostly controlled by the dynamics of the grounding line, i.e. the junction between the grounded ice sheet and the floating ice shelf. Grounding line migration has been investigated within the framework of MISMIP (Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, which mainly aimed at investigating steady state solutions. Here we focus on transient behaviour, executing short-term simulations (200 yr of a steady ice sheet perturbed by the release of the buttressing restraint exerted by the ice shelf on the grounded ice upstream. The transient grounding line behaviour of four different flowline ice-sheet models has been compared. The models differ in the physics implemented (full Stokes and shallow shelf approximation, the numerical approach, as well as the grounding line treatment. Their overall response to the loss of buttressing is found to be broadly consistent in terms of grounding line position, rate of surface elevation change and surface velocity. However, still small differences appear for these latter variables, and they can lead to large discrepancies (> 100% observed in terms of ice sheet contribution to sea level when cumulated over time. Despite the recent important improvements of marine ice-sheet models in their ability to compute steady state configurations, our results question the capacity of these models to compute short-term reliable sea-level rise projections.

On the Importance of High Frequency Gravity Waves for Ice Nucleation in the Tropical Tropopause Layer

Science.gov (United States)

Jensen, Eric J.

2016-01-01

Recent investigations of the influence of atmospheric waves on ice nucleation in cirrus have identified a number of key processes and sensitivities: (1) ice concentrations produced by homogeneous freezing are strongly dependent on cooling rates, with gravity waves dominating upper tropospheric cooling rates; (2) rapid cooling driven by high-frequency waves are likely responsible for the rare occurrences of very high ice concentrations in cirrus; (3) sedimentation and entrainment tend to decrease ice concentrations as cirrus age; and (4) in some situations, changes in temperature tendency driven by high-frequency waves can quench ice nucleation events and limit ice concentrations. Here we use parcel-model simulations of ice nucleation driven by long-duration, constant-pressure balloon temperature time series, along with an extensive dataset of cold cirrus microphysical properties from the recent ATTREX high-altitude aircraft campaign, to statistically examine the importance of high-frequency waves as well as the consistency between our theoretical understanding of ice nucleation and observed ice concentrations. The parcel-model simulations indicate common occurrence of peak ice concentrations exceeding several hundred per liter. Sedimentation and entrainment would reduce ice concentrations as clouds age, but 1-D simulations using a wave parameterization (which underestimates rapid cooling events) still produce ice concentrations higher than indicated by observations. We find that quenching of nucleation events by high-frequency waves occurs infrequently and does not prevent occurrences of large ice concentrations in parcel simulations of homogeneous freezing. In fact, the high-frequency variability in the balloon temperature data is entirely responsible for production of these high ice concentrations in the simulations.

A study of Arctic sea ice freeboard heights, gravity anomalies and dynamic topography from ICESat measurementes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skourup, Henriette

The Arctic sea ice cover has a great influence on the climate and is believed to respond rapidly to climate changes. Since 2003 the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimetry mission has provided satellite altimetry over the ice covered Arctic Ocean up to 86 N. In this thesis...

Continuous methane measurements from a late Holocene Greenland ice core

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rhodes, R.H.; Mitchell, L.E.; Brook, E.J.

2013-01-01

Ancient air trapped inside bubbles in ice cores can now be analysed for methane concentration utilising a laser spectrometer coupled to a continuous melter system. We present a new ultra-high resolution record of atmospheric methane variability over the last 1800yr obtained from continuous analysis...... of a shallow ice core from the North Greenland Eemian project (NEEM-2011-S1) during a 4-week laboratory-based measurement campaign. Our record faithfully replicates the form and amplitudes of multi-decadal oscillations previously observed in other ice cores and demonstrates the detailed depth resolution (5.3cm......), rapid acquisition time (30mday) and good long-term reproducibility (2.6%, 2s) of the continuous measurement technique.In addition, we report the detection of high frequency ice core methane signals of non-atmospheric origin. Firstly, measurements of air from the firn-ice transition region...

The isotopic composition of methane in polar ice cores

Science.gov (United States)

Craig, H.; Chou, C. C.; Welhan, J. A.; Stevens, C. M.; Engelkemeir, A.

1988-01-01

Air bubbles in polar ice cores indicate that about 300 years ago the atmospheric mixing ratio of methane began to increase rapidly. Today the mixing ratio is about 1.7 parts per million by volume, and, having doubled once in the past several hundred years, it will double again in the next 60 years if current rates continue. Carbon isotope ratios in methane up to 350 years in age have been measured with as little as 25 kilograms of polar ice recovered in 4-meter-long ice-core segments. The data show that: (1) in situ microbiology or chemistry has not altered the ice-core methane concentrations, and (2) that the carbon-13 to carbon-12 ratio of atmospheric CH4 in ice from 100 years and 300 years ago was about 2 per mil lower than at present. Atmospheric methane has a rich spectrum of isotopic sources: the ice-core data indicate that anthropogenic burning of the earth's biomass is the principal cause of the recent C-13H4 enrichment, although other factors may also contribute.

What Can We Learn About Glaciers and Ice Sheets From 30 Years of Landsat Imagery?

Science.gov (United States)

Gardner, A. S.; Scambos, T.; Fahnestock, M. A.; Moholdt, G.; Nilsson, J.

2015-12-01

Glacier and ice sheets are known to be rapidly changing and currently account for two thirds of observed sea level rise. Attributing the causes of the rapid decline in land ice requires separation of mass change processes, i.e. accumulation of precipitation, meltwater runoff, and solid ice discharge. Here we examine a 30 year record of Landsat imagery to determine trends in glacier velocity at a global scale in an attempt to identify anomalies in glacier flow that are contributing to changes in land ice mass. The Landsat archive represents a treasure trove of information with hundreds of thousands of images acquired over glaciers and ice sheets during the past 30 years. Gleaning useful and consistent surface displacement information from a multiple sensor archive that is heavily contaminated by cloud, saturated images, poorly resolved sensor geometry, and data gaps has proved challenging. Temporal stacking of displacement fields (Dehecq et al., 2015) and correcting for unresolved topography (Roseanau et al., 2012) have been shown to greatly improve derived velocities. Here we present results from a global processing of the complete Landsat archive for information on glacier surface displacements. We highlight patterns of coherent regional change as well as well as rapid basin-scale changes in glacier flow.

QUANTIFYING REGIONAL SEA LEVEL RISE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diandong Ren

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This study projects the sea level contribution from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS through to 2100, using a recently developed ice dynamics model forced by atmospheric parameters derived from three different climate models (CGCMs. The geographical pattern of the near-surface ice warming imposes a divergent flow field favoring mass loss through enhanced ice flow. The calculated average mass loss rate during the latter half of the 21st century is ~0.64±0.06 mm/year eustatic sea level rise, which is significantly larger than the IPCC AR4 estimate from surface mass balance. The difference is due largely to the positive feedbacks from reduced ice viscosity and the basal sliding mechanism present in the ice dynamics model. This inter-model, inter-scenario spread adds approximately a 20% uncertainty to the IPCC ice model estimates. The sea level rise is geographically non-uniform and reaches 1.69±0.24 mm/year by 2100 for the northeast coastal region of the United States, amplified by the expected weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC. In contrast to previous estimates, which neglected the GrIS fresh water input, both sides of the North Atlantic Gyre are projected to experience sea level rises. The impacts on a selection of major cities on both sides of the Atlantic and in the Pacific and southern oceans also are assessed. The other ocean basins are found to be less affected than the Atlantic Ocean.

Ice Ih anomalies: Thermal contraction, anomalous volume isotope effect, and pressure-induced amorphization

Science.gov (United States)

Salim, Michael A.; Willow, Soohaeng Yoo; Hirata, So

2016-05-01

Ice Ih displays several anomalous thermodynamic properties such as thermal contraction at low temperatures, an anomalous volume isotope effect (VIE) rendering the volume of D2O ice greater than that of H2O ice, and a pressure-induced transition to the high-density amorphous (HDA) phase. Furthermore, the anomalous VIE increases with temperature, despite its quantum-mechanical origin. Here, embedded-fragment ab initio second-order many-body perturbation (MP2) theory in the quasiharmonic approximation (QHA) is applied to the Gibbs energy of an infinite, proton-disordered crystal of ice Ih at wide ranges of temperatures and pressures. The quantum effect of nuclei moving in anharmonic potentials is taken into account from first principles without any empirical or nonsystematic approximation to either the electronic or vibrational Hamiltonian. MP2 predicts quantitatively correctly the thermal contraction at low temperatures, which is confirmed to originate from the volume-contracting hydrogen-bond bending modes (acoustic phonons). It qualitatively reproduces (but underestimates) the thermal expansion at higher temperatures, caused by the volume-expanding hydrogen-bond stretching (and to a lesser extent librational) modes. The anomalous VIE is found to be the result of subtle cancellations among closely competing isotope effects on volume from all modes. Consequently, even ab initio MP2 with the aug-cc-pVDZ and aug-cc-pVTZ basis sets has difficulty reproducing this anomaly, yielding qualitatively varied predictions of the sign of the VIE depending on such computational details as the choice of the embedding field. However, the temperature growth of the anomalous VIE is reproduced robustly and is ascribed to the librational modes. These solid-state MP2 calculations, as well as MP2 Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics, find a volume collapse and a loss of symmetry and long-range order in ice Ih upon pressure loading of 2.35 GPa or higher. Concomitantly, rapid softening of

Ice Ih anomalies: Thermal contraction, anomalous volume isotope effect, and pressure-induced amorphization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salim, Michael A.; Willow, Soohaeng Yoo; Hirata, So, E-mail: sohirata@illinois.edu [Department of Chemistry, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 600 South Mathews Avenue, Urbana, Illinois 61801 (United States)

2016-05-28

Ice Ih displays several anomalous thermodynamic properties such as thermal contraction at low temperatures, an anomalous volume isotope effect (VIE) rendering the volume of D{sub 2}O ice greater than that of H{sub 2}O ice, and a pressure-induced transition to the high-density amorphous (HDA) phase. Furthermore, the anomalous VIE increases with temperature, despite its quantum-mechanical origin. Here, embedded-fragment ab initio second-order many-body perturbation (MP2) theory in the quasiharmonic approximation (QHA) is applied to the Gibbs energy of an infinite, proton-disordered crystal of ice Ih at wide ranges of temperatures and pressures. The quantum effect of nuclei moving in anharmonic potentials is taken into account from first principles without any empirical or nonsystematic approximation to either the electronic or vibrational Hamiltonian. MP2 predicts quantitatively correctly the thermal contraction at low temperatures, which is confirmed to originate from the volume-contracting hydrogen-bond bending modes (acoustic phonons). It qualitatively reproduces (but underestimates) the thermal expansion at higher temperatures, caused by the volume-expanding hydrogen-bond stretching (and to a lesser extent librational) modes. The anomalous VIE is found to be the result of subtle cancellations among closely competing isotope effects on volume from all modes. Consequently, even ab initio MP2 with the aug-cc-pVDZ and aug-cc-pVTZ basis sets has difficulty reproducing this anomaly, yielding qualitatively varied predictions of the sign of the VIE depending on such computational details as the choice of the embedding field. However, the temperature growth of the anomalous VIE is reproduced robustly and is ascribed to the librational modes. These solid-state MP2 calculations, as well as MP2 Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics, find a volume collapse and a loss of symmetry and long-range order in ice Ih upon pressure loading of 2.35 GPa or higher. Concomitantly, rapid

Sea ice - Multiyear cycles and white ice

Science.gov (United States)

Ledley, T. S.

1985-01-01

The multiyear thickness cycles represent one of the interesting features of the sea ice studies performed by Semtner (1976) and Washington et al. (1976) with simple thermodynamic models of sea ice. In the present article, a description is given of results which show that the insulating effect of snow on the surface of the sea ice is important in producing these multiyear cycles given the physics included in the model. However, when the formation of white ice is included, the cycles almost disappear. White ice is the ice which forms at the snow-ice interface when the snow layer becomes thick enough to depress the ice below the water level. Water infiltrates the snow by coming through the ice at leads and generally freezes there, forming white ice.

Proceedings of the 15. CRIPE workshop on the hydraulics of ice covered rivers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hicks, F. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering] (comp.)

2009-07-01

This workshop focused on the hydraulic aspects of river ice phenomena and the effects of ice cover on flow characteristics. Ice processes play a large role in the hydrologic regime of Canadian rivers and are related to the life cycle of aquatic, terrestrial, and avian species. The most serious impacts of river ice occur during ice-jam flooding, affecting the winter operation of hydroelectric power plants and sometimes resulting in the loss of property and human life. The conference addressed these concerns as well as environmental aspects of river ice, and climatic change. The Committee on River Ice Processes and the Environment (CRIPE) identifies high-priority topics for research and development and promotes research programs at Canadian colleges and universities. In addition to a poster session, the workshop included sessions on ice measurement; freeze-up and frazil; ice processes and the environment; ice hydraulics; ice and river regulation; ice jams and breakup forecasting; ice and infrastructure; and remote sensing. The workshop featured 35 presentations, of which 3 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs.

Proceedings of the 15. CRIPE workshop on the hydraulics of ice covered rivers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hicks, F.

2009-01-01

This workshop focused on the hydraulic aspects of river ice phenomena and the effects of ice cover on flow characteristics. Ice processes play a large role in the hydrologic regime of Canadian rivers and are related to the life cycle of aquatic, terrestrial, and avian species. The most serious impacts of river ice occur during ice-jam flooding, affecting the winter operation of hydroelectric power plants and sometimes resulting in the loss of property and human life. The conference addressed these concerns as well as environmental aspects of river ice, and climatic change. The Committee on River Ice Processes and the Environment (CRIPE) identifies high-priority topics for research and development and promotes research programs at Canadian colleges and universities. In addition to a poster session, the workshop included sessions on ice measurement; freeze-up and frazil; ice processes and the environment; ice hydraulics; ice and river regulation; ice jams and breakup forecasting; ice and infrastructure; and remote sensing. The workshop featured 35 presentations, of which 3 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs.

An Imminent Revolution in Modeling Interactions of Ice Sheets With Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, T.

2008-12-01

Modeling continental ice sheets was inaugurated by meteorologists William Budd and Uwe Radok, with mathematician Richard Jenssen, in 1971. Their model calculated the thermal and mechanical regime using measured surface accumulation rates, temperatures, and elevations, and bed topography. This top-down approach delivered a basal thermal regime of temperatures or melting rates for an assumed basal geothermal heat flux. When Philippe Huybrechts and others incorporated time, largely unknownpast surface conditions had a major effect on present basal thermal conditions. This approach produced ice-sheet models with only a slow response to external forcing, whereas the glacial geological record and climate records from ice and ocean cores show that ice sheets can have rapid changes in size and shape independent of external forcing. These top-down models were wholly inadequate for reconstructing former ice sheets at the LGM for CLIMAP in 1981. Ice-sheet areas,elevations, and volumes provided the albedo, surface topography, and sea-surface area as input to climate models. A bottom-up model based on dated glacial geology was developed to provide the areal extent and basal thermal regime of ice sheets at the LGM. Basal thermal conditions determined ice-bed coupling and therefore the elevation of ice sheets. High convex ice surfaces for slow sheet flow lower about 20 percent when a frozen bed becomes thawed. As further basal melting drowns bedrock bumps that "pin" basal ice, the ice surface becomes concave in fast stream flow that ends as low floating ice shelves at marine ice margins. A revolution in modeling interactions between glaciation, climate, and sea level is driven by new Greenland and Antarctic data from Earth-orbiting satellites, airborne and surface traverses, and deep drilling. We anticipate continuous data acquisition of surface albedo, accumulation/ablation rates, elevations, velocities, and temperatures over a whole ice sheet, mapping basal thermal conditions

Visible and ultraviolet emission from pulse irradiated amorphous and polycrystalline H2O ice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Freeman, C.G.; Quickenden, T.I.; Litjens, R.A.J.; Sangster, D.F.

1984-01-01

Luminescence peaking at 405 nm was observed when thin films of amorphous or polycrystalline ice at 97 K were irradiated with a pulsed beam of 0.53 MeV electrons. These emissions differed from the luminescence emitted by crystalline ice in that memory effects were not observed; the peak wavelengths were red shifted by approx.20 nm; and the half-lives were 6--9 ns instead of approx.400 ns. The emission spectra of polycrystalline ice samples produced by rapid deposition or by annealing amorphous ice were similar, but both had substantially lower intensities than amorphous ice spectra

Arctic marine mammal population status, sea ice habitat loss, and conservation recommendations for the 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Stern, Harry; Kovacs, Kit M.; Lowry, Lloyd; Moore, Sue E.; Regehr, Eric V.; Ferguson, Steven H.; Wiig, Øystein; Boveng, Peter; Angliss, Robyn P.; Born, Erik W.; Litovka, Dennis; Quakenbush, Lori; Lydersen, Christian; Vongraven, Dag; Ugarte, Fernando

2015-01-01

Abstract Arctic marine mammals (AMMs) are icons of climate change, largely because of their close association with sea ice. However, neither a circumpolar assessment of AMM status nor a standardized metric of sea ice habitat change is available. We summarized available data on abundance and trend for each AMM species and recognized subpopulation. We also examined species diversity, the extent of human use, and temporal trends in sea ice habitat for 12 regions of the Arctic by calculating the dates of spring sea ice retreat and fall sea ice advance from satellite data (1979–2013). Estimates of AMM abundance varied greatly in quality, and few studies were long enough for trend analysis. Of the AMM subpopulations, 78% (61 of 78) are legally harvested for subsistence purposes. Changes in sea ice phenology have been profound. In all regions except the Bering Sea, the duration of the summer (i.e., reduced ice) period increased by 5–10 weeks and by >20 weeks in the Barents Sea between 1979 and 2013. In light of generally poor data, the importance of human use, and forecasted environmental changes in the 21st century, we recommend the following for effective AMM conservation: maintain and improve comanagement by local, federal, and international partners; recognize spatial and temporal variability in AMM subpopulation response to climate change; implement monitoring programs with clear goals; mitigate cumulative impacts of increased human activity; and recognize the limits of current protected species legislation. PMID:25783745

Radar Interferometry Studies of the Mass Balance of Polar Ice Sheets

Science.gov (United States)

Rignot, Eric (Editor)

1999-01-01

The objectives of this work are to determine the current state of mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Our approach combines different techniques, which include satellite synthetic-aperture radar interferometry (InSAR), radar and laser altimetry, radar ice sounding, and finite-element modeling. In Greenland, we found that 3.5 times more ice flows out of the northern part of the Greenland Ice Sheet than previously accounted for. The discrepancy between current and past estimates is explained by extensive basal melting of the glacier floating sections in the proximity of the grounding line where the glacier detaches from its bed and becomes afloat in the ocean. The inferred basal melt rates are very large, which means that the glaciers are very sensitive to changes in ocean conditions. Currently, it appears that the northern Greenland glaciers discharge more ice than is being accumulated in the deep interior, and hence are thinning. Studies of temporal changes in grounding line position using InSAR confirm the state of retreat of northern glaciers and suggest that thinning is concentrated at the lower elevations. Ongoing work along the coast of East Greenland reveals an even larger mass deficit for eastern Greenland glaciers, with thinning affecting the deep interior of the ice sheet. In Antarctica, we found that glaciers flowing into a large ice shelf system, such as the Ronne Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea, exhibit an ice discharge in remarkable agreement with mass accumulation in the interior, and the glacier grounding line positions do not migrate with time. Glaciers flowing rapidly into the Amudsen Sea, unrestrained by a major ice shelf, are in contrast discharging more ice than required to maintain a state of mass balance and are thinning quite rapidly near the coast. The grounding line of Pine Island glacier (see diagram) retreated 5 km in 4 years, which corresponds to a glacier thinning rate of 3.5 m/yr. Mass imbalance is even more negative

A Decade of High-Resolution Arctic Sea Ice Measurements from Airborne Altimetry

Science.gov (United States)

Duncan, K.; Farrell, S. L.; Connor, L. N.; Jackson, C.; Richter-Menge, J.

2017-12-01

Satellite altimeters carried on board ERS-1,-2, EnviSat, ICESat, CryoSat-2, AltiKa and Sentinel-3 have transformed our ability to map the thickness and volume of the polar sea ice cover, on seasonal and decadal time-scales. The era of polar satellite altimetry has coincided with a rapid decline of the Arctic ice cover, which has thinned, and transitioned from a predominantly multi-year to first-year ice cover. In conjunction with basin-scale satellite altimeter observations, airborne surveys of the Arctic Ocean at the end of winter are now routine. These surveys have been targeted to monitor regions of rapid change, and are designed to obtain the full snow and ice thickness distribution, across a range of ice types. Sensors routinely deployed as part of NASA's Operation IceBridge (OIB) campaigns include the Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) laser altimeter, the frequency-modulated continuous-wave snow radar, and the Digital Mapping System (DMS). Airborne measurements yield high-resolution data products and thus present a unique opportunity to assess the quality and characteristics of the satellite observations. We present a suite of sea ice data products that describe the snow depth and thickness of the Arctic ice cover during the last decade. Fields were derived from OIB measurements collected between 2009-2017, and from reprocessed data collected during ad-hoc sea ice campaigns prior to OIB. Our bespoke algorithms are designed to accommodate the heterogeneous sea ice surface topography, that varies at short spatial scales. We assess regional and inter-annual variability in the sea ice thickness distribution. Results are compared to satellite-derived ice thickness fields to highlight the sensitivities of satellite footprints to the tails of the thickness distribution. We also show changes in the dynamic forcing shaping the ice pack over the last eight years through an analysis of pressure-ridge sail-height distributions and surface roughness conditions

Modelling the contribution of supraglacial ice cliffs to the mass-balance of glaciers in the Langtang catchment, Nepalese Himalaya

Science.gov (United States)

Buri, P.; Steiner, J. F.; Miles, E.; Ragettli, S.; Pellicciotti, F.

2017-12-01

Supraglacial cliffs are typical surface features of debris-covered glaciers worldwide, affecting surface evolution, and mass balance by providing a direct ice-atmosphere interface where melt rates can be very high. As a result, ice cliffs act as windows of energy transfer from the atmosphere to the ice, and enhance melt and mass losses of otherwise insulated ice. However, their contribution to glacier mass balance has never been quantified at the glacier scale, and all inference has been obtained from upscaling results of point-scale models or observations at select individual cliffs. Here we use a 3D, physically-based backwasting model to estimate the volume losses associated with the melting and backwasting of supraglacial ice cliffs for the entire debris-covered glacier area of the Langtang catchment. We estimate mass losses for the 2014 melt season and compare them to recent values of glacier mass balance determined from geodetic and numerical modelling approached. Cliff outlines and topography are derived from high-resolution stereo SPOT6-imagery from April 2014. Meteorological data to force the model are provided by automatic weather stations on- and off-glacier within the valley. The model simulates ice cliff backwasting by considering the cliff-atmosphere energy-balance, reburial by debris and the effects of adjacent ponds. In the melt season of 2014, cliffs' distribution and patterns of mass losses vary considerably from glacier to glacier, and we relate rates of volume loss to both glaciers' and cliffs' characteristics. Only cliffs with a northerly aspect account for substantial losses. Uncertainty in our estimates is due to the quality of the stereo DEM, uncertainties in the cliff delineation and the fact that we use a conservative approach to cliff delineation and discard very small cliffs and those for which uncertainty in topography is high. Despite these uncertainties, our work presents the first estimate of the importance of supraglacial ice

Improved retrieval of land ice topography from CryoSat-2 data and its impact for volume-change estimation of the Greenland Ice Sheet

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nilsson, Johan; Gardner, Alex; Sørensen, Louise Sandberg

2016-01-01

of the snow/ice surface with lower sensitivity to changes in near-surface dielectric properties. To demonstrate the utility of the new processing methodology we produce elevations, elevation changes, and total volume changes from CryoSat-2 data for the Greenland Ice Sheet during the period January 2011...... to January 2015. We find that the Greenland Ice Sheet decreased in volume at a rate of 289 ± 20km3 a-1, with high interannual variability and spatial heterogeneity in rates of loss. This rate is 65km3 a-1 more negative than rates determined from ESA's L2 product, highlighting the importance of CryoSat-2...

Effetively trapping air or lqiud water for anti-icing applications

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jianjun

2014-03-01

Icing on solid surfaces leads to operational difficulties and high maintenance efforts for power networks, aircrafts, ships, ground transportation vehicles and house-hold refrigerators, to name but a few. In extreme cases, icing on surfaces causes disastrous events such as crash of aircrafts and collapse of power networks, which result in severe economic impact and large loss of life. This talk is focused on the fundamentals of the ice formation and adhesion of ice with solid substrates aiming for fighting against icing on solid surfaces. When the supercooling is low, it would be possible to remove supercooled liquid water from the solid surfaces before freezing occurs. To achieve this, we design and constructed surfaces that can trap the air at the subfreezing temperature thus condensed water microdroplets could be spontaneously removed after the coalescence. When the supercooling is high, icing on surfaces occurs spontaniously. In this case, we constructed coatings on which aqueous lubricating layer could be trapped, thus the ice adhesion on the coating is so low that the ice formed atop could be removed by a wind action or its own gravity.

Projected polar bear sea ice habitat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen G Hamilton

Full Text Available Sea ice across the Arctic is declining and altering physical characteristics of marine ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus have been identified as vulnerable to changes in sea ice conditions. We use sea ice projections for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 2006 - 2100 to gain insight into the conservation challenges for polar bears with respect to habitat loss using metrics developed from polar bear energetics modeling.Shifts away from multiyear ice to annual ice cover throughout the region, as well as lengthening ice-free periods, may become critical for polar bears before the end of the 21st century with projected warming. Each polar bear population in the Archipelago may undergo 2-5 months of ice-free conditions, where no such conditions exist presently. We identify spatially and temporally explicit ice-free periods that extend beyond what polar bears require for nutritional and reproductive demands.Under business-as-usual climate projections, polar bears may face starvation and reproductive failure across the entire Archipelago by the year 2100.

Mass Loss Rates of Fasting Polar Bears.

Science.gov (United States)

Pilfold, Nicholas W; Hedman, Daryll; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E; Lunn, Nicholas J; Richardson, Evan

2016-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have adapted to an annual cyclic regime of feeding and fasting, which is extreme in seasonal sea ice regions of the Arctic. As a consequence of climate change, sea ice breakup has become earlier and the duration of the open-water period through which polar bears must rely on fat reserves has increased. To date, there is limited empirical data with which to evaluate the potential energetic capacity of polar bears to withstand longer fasts. We measured the incoming and outgoing mass of inactive polar bears (n = 142) that were temporarily detained by Manitoba Conservation and Water Stewardship during the open-water period near the town of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada, in 2009-2014. Polar bears were given access to water but not food and held for a median length of 17 d. Median mass loss rates were 1.0 kg/d, while median mass-specific loss rates were 0.5%/d, similar to other species with high adiposity and prolonged fasting capacities. Mass loss by unfed captive adult males was identical to that lost by free-ranging individuals, suggesting that terrestrial feeding contributes little to offset mass loss. The inferred metabolic rate was comparable to a basal mammalian rate, suggesting that while on land, polar bears can maintain a depressed metabolic rate to conserve energy. Finally, we estimated time to starvation for subadults and adult males for the on-land period. Results suggest that at 180 d of fasting, 56%-63% of subadults and 18%-24% of adult males in this study would die of starvation. Results corroborate previous assessments on the limits of polar bear capacity to withstand lengthening ice-free seasons and emphasize the greater sensitivity of subadults to changes in sea ice phenology.

Ice and ocean velocity in the Arctic marginal ice zone: Ice roughness and momentum transfer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sylvia T. Cole

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The interplay between sea ice concentration, sea ice roughness, ocean stratification, and momentum transfer to the ice and ocean is subject to seasonal and decadal variations that are crucial to understanding the present and future air-ice-ocean system in the Arctic. In this study, continuous observations in the Canada Basin from March through December 2014 were used to investigate spatial differences and temporal changes in under-ice roughness and momentum transfer as the ice cover evolved seasonally. Observations of wind, ice, and ocean properties from four clusters of drifting instrument systems were complemented by direct drill-hole measurements and instrumented overhead flights by NASA operation IceBridge in March, as well as satellite remote sensing imagery about the instrument clusters. Spatially, directly estimated ice-ocean drag coefficients varied by a factor of three with rougher ice associated with smaller multi-year ice floe sizes embedded within the first-year-ice/multi-year-ice conglomerate. Temporal differences in the ice-ocean drag coefficient of 20–30% were observed prior to the mixed layer shoaling in summer and were associated with ice concentrations falling below 100%. The ice-ocean drag coefficient parameterization was found to be invalid in September with low ice concentrations and small ice floe sizes. Maximum momentum transfer to the ice occurred for moderate ice concentrations, and transfer to the ocean for the lowest ice concentrations and shallowest stratification. Wind work and ocean work on the ice were the dominant terms in the kinetic energy budget of the ice throughout the melt season, consistent with free drift conditions. Overall, ice topography, ice concentration, and the shallow summer mixed layer all influenced mixed layer currents and the transfer of momentum within the air-ice-ocean system. The observed changes in momentum transfer show that care must be taken to determine appropriate parameterizations

Ice cream structure modification by ice-binding proteins.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaleda, Aleksei; Tsanev, Robert; Klesment, Tiina; Vilu, Raivo; Laos, Katrin

2018-04-25

Ice-binding proteins (IBPs), also known as antifreeze proteins, were added to ice cream to investigate their effect on structure and texture. Ice recrystallization inhibition was assessed in the ice cream mixes using a novel accelerated microscope assay and the ice cream microstructure was studied using an ice crystal dispersion method. It was found that adding recombinantly produced fish type III IBPs at a concentration 3 mg·L -1 made ice cream hard and crystalline with improved shape preservation during melting. Ice creams made with IBPs (both from winter rye, and type III IBP) had aggregates of ice crystals that entrapped pockets of the ice cream mixture in a rigid network. Larger individual ice crystals and no entrapment in control ice creams was observed. Based on these results a model of ice crystals aggregates formation in the presence of IBPs was proposed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ice sheet hydrology from observations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jansson, Peter [Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm Univ-, Stockholm (Sweden)

2010-11-15

The hydrological systems of ice sheets are complex. Our view of the system is split, largely due to the complexity of observing the systems. Our basic knowledge of processes have been obtained from smaller glaciers and although applicable in general to the larger scales of the ice sheets, ice sheets contain features not observable on smaller glaciers due to their size. The generation of water on the ice sheet surface is well understood and can be satisfactorily modeled. The routing of water from the surface down through the ice is not complicated in terms of procat has been problematic is the way in which the couplings between surface and bed has been accomplished through a kilometer of cold ice, but with the studies on crack propagation and lake drainage on Greenland we are beginning to understand also this process and we know water can be routed through thick cold ice. Water generation at the bed is also well understood but the main problem preventing realistic estimates of water generation is lack of detailed information about geothermal heat fluxes and their geographical distribution beneath the ice. Although some average value for geothermal heat flux may suffice, for many purposes it is important that such values are not applied to sub-regions of significantly higher fluxes. Water generated by geothermal heat constitutes a constant supply and will likely maintain a steady system beneath the ice sheet. Such a system may include subglacial lakes as steady features and reconfiguration of the system is tied to time scales on which the ice sheet geometry changes so as to change pressure gradients in the basal system itself. Large scale re-organization of subglacial drainage systems have been observed beneath ice streams. The stability of an entirely subglacially fed drainage system may hence be perturbed by rapid ice flow. In the case of Antarctic ice streams where such behavior has been observed, the ice streams are underlain by deformable sediments. It is

Ice sheet hydrology from observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jansson, Peter

2010-11-01

The hydrological systems of ice sheets are complex. Our view of the system is split, largely due to the complexity of observing the systems. Our basic knowledge of processes have been obtained from smaller glaciers and although applicable in general to the larger scales of the ice sheets, ice sheets contain features not observable on smaller glaciers due to their size. The generation of water on the ice sheet surface is well understood and can be satisfactorily modeled. The routing of water from the surface down through the ice is not complicated in terms of procat has been problematic is the way in which the couplings between surface and bed has been accomplished through a kilometer of cold ice, but with the studies on crack propagation and lake drainage on Greenland we are beginning to understand also this process and we know water can be routed through thick cold ice. Water generation at the bed is also well understood but the main problem preventing realistic estimates of water generation is lack of detailed information about geothermal heat fluxes and their geographical distribution beneath the ice. Although some average value for geothermal heat flux may suffice, for many purposes it is important that such values are not applied to sub-regions of significantly higher fluxes. Water generated by geothermal heat constitutes a constant supply and will likely maintain a steady system beneath the ice sheet. Such a system may include subglacial lakes as steady features and reconfiguration of the system is tied to time scales on which the ice sheet geometry changes so as to change pressure gradients in the basal system itself. Large scale re-organization of subglacial drainage systems have been observed beneath ice streams. The stability of an entirely subglacially fed drainage system may hence be perturbed by rapid ice flow. In the case of Antarctic ice streams where such behavior has been observed, the ice streams are underlain by deformable sediments. It is

Ice Sheets & Ice Cores

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mikkelsen, Troels Bøgeholm

Since the discovery of the Ice Ages it has been evident that Earth’s climate is liable to undergo dramatic changes. The previous climatic period known as the Last Glacial saw large oscillations in the extent of ice sheets covering the Northern hemisphere. Understanding these oscillations known....... The first part concerns time series analysis of ice core data obtained from the Greenland Ice Sheet. We analyze parts of the time series where DO-events occur using the so-called transfer operator and compare the results with time series from a simple model capable of switching by either undergoing...

Numerical calculation of air velocity and temperature in ice rinks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bellache, O.; Galanis, N. [Sherbrooke Univ., PQ (Canada); Ouzzane, M.; Sunye, R. [Natural Resources Canada, Varennes, PQ (Canada). CANMET Energy Diversification Laboratory

2002-07-01

A computational fluid dynamic (CFD) model was developed to predict the energy consumption at an ice rink. Ice rinks in Canada consume approximately 3500 GWh of electricity annually and generate about 300,000 tons of gases contributing to the greenhouse effect. This newly developed model also considers ice quality and comfort conditions in the arena. The typical 2D configuration includes refrigeration loads as well as heat transfer coefficients between the air and the ice. The effects of heat losses through the ice rink envelope are also determined. A comparison of prediction results from 4 different formulations confirms that there are important differences in air velocities near the walls and in the temperature gradient near the ice. The turbulent mixed convection model gives the best estimate of the refrigeration load. It was determined that a good ventilation should circulate air throughout the building to avoid stagnant areas. Air velocities must be low near the stands where the temperature should be around 20 degrees C. Air temperature near the ice should be low to preserve ice quality and to reduce the refrigeration load. The complexity of this geometry has been taken into account in a numerical simulation of the hydrodynamic and thermal fields in the ice rink. 9 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs.

The sea ice mass budget of the Arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holland, Marika M. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Serreze, Mark C.; Stroeve, Julienne [University of Colorado, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO (United States)

2010-02-15

Arctic sea ice mass budgets for the twentieth century and projected changes through the twenty-first century are assessed from 14 coupled global climate models. Large inter-model scatter in contemporary mass budgets is strongly related to variations in absorbed solar radiation, due in large part to differences in the surface albedo simulation. Over the twenty-first century, all models simulate a decrease in ice volume resulting from increased annual net melt (melt minus growth), partially compensated by reduced transport to lower latitudes. Despite this general agreement, the models vary considerably regarding the magnitude of ice volume loss and the relative roles of changing melt and growth in driving it. Projected changes in sea ice mass budgets depend in part on the initial (mid twentieth century) ice conditions; models with thicker initial ice generally exhibit larger volume losses. Pointing to the importance of evolving surface albedo and cloud properties, inter-model scatter in changing net ice melt is significantly related to changes in downwelling longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation. These factors, along with the simulated mean and spatial distribution of ice thickness, contribute to a large inter-model scatter in the projected onset of seasonally ice-free conditions. (orig.)

Interannual Variability of the Sea-Ice-Induced Salt Flux in the Greenland Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Leif Toudal; Coon, M.D.

2001-01-01

The Greenland Sea is one of the few places in the World Ocean where deep convection takes place. The convection process is initiated by a density increase originating from rapid cooling and/or a salt flux to the upper layer of the ocean due to brine rejection from ice formation (Rudels, 1990......; Visbeck and others, 1995). The predominant ice types in the Greenland Sea arc frazil/grease ice and pancake ice. A numerical model has been developed relating ice formation and decay of these ice types as observed by the SMMR and SSM/I microwave radiometers and evaluating their contribution to salt...... redistribution in the Greenland Sea. The model has been used to calculate spatial distribution of the annual integrated net salt flux to the Greenland Sea from ice production and advection for the period 1979-97....

Eulerian Method for Ice Crystal Icing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Norde, Ellen; van der Weide, Edwin Theodorus Antonius; Hoeijmakers, Hendrik Willem Marie

In this study, an ice accretion method aimed at ice crystal icing in turbofan engines is developed and demonstrated for glaciated as well as mixed-phase icing conditions. The particle trajectories are computed by an Eulerian trajectory method. The effects of heat transfer and phase change on the

Statistical Analysis of SSMIS Sea Ice Concentration Threshold at the Arctic Sea Ice Edge during Summer Based on MODIS and Ship-Based Observational Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Ji, Qing; Li, Fei; Pang, Xiaoping; Luo, Cong

2018-04-05

The threshold of sea ice concentration (SIC) is the basis for accurately calculating sea ice extent based on passive microwave (PM) remote sensing data. However, the PM SIC threshold at the sea ice edge used in previous studies and released sea ice products has not always been consistent. To explore the representable value of the PM SIC threshold corresponding on average to the position of the Arctic sea ice edge during summer in recent years, we extracted sea ice edge boundaries from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea ice product (MOD29 with a spatial resolution of 1 km), MODIS images (250 m), and sea ice ship-based observation points (1 km) during the fifth (CHINARE-2012) and sixth (CHINARE-2014) Chinese National Arctic Research Expeditions, and made an overlay and comparison analysis with PM SIC derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS, with a spatial resolution of 25 km) in the summer of 2012 and 2014. Results showed that the average SSMIS SIC threshold at the Arctic sea ice edge based on ice-water boundary lines extracted from MOD29 was 33%, which was higher than that of the commonly used 15% discriminant threshold. The average SIC threshold at sea ice edge based on ice-water boundary lines extracted by visual interpretation from four scenes of the MODIS image was 35% when compared to the average value of 36% from the MOD29 extracted ice edge pixels for the same days. The average SIC of 31% at the sea ice edge points extracted from ship-based observations also confirmed that choosing around 30% as the SIC threshold during summer is recommended for sea ice extent calculations based on SSMIS PM data. These results can provide a reference for further studying the variation of sea ice under the rapidly changing Arctic.

Experimental provocation of 'ice-cream headache' by ice cubes and ice water.

Science.gov (United States)

Mages, Stephan; Hensel, Ole; Zierz, Antonia Maria; Kraya, Torsten; Zierz, Stephan

2017-04-01

Background There are various studies on experimentally provoked 'ice-cream headache' or 'headache attributed to ingestion or inhalation of a cold stimulus' (HICS) using different provocation protocols. The aim of this study was to compare two provocation protocols. Methods Ice cubes pressed to the palate and fast ingestion of ice water were used to provoke HICS and clinical features were compared. Results The ice-water stimulus provoked HICS significantly more often than the ice-cube stimulus (9/77 vs. 39/77). Ice-water-provoked HICS had a significantly shorter latency (median 15 s, range 4-97 s vs. median 68 s, range 27-96 s). There was no difference in pain localisation. Character after ice-cube stimulation was predominantly described as pressing and after ice-water stimulation as stabbing. A second HICS followed in 10/39 (26%) of the headaches provoked by ice water. Lacrimation occurred significantly more often in volunteers with than in those without HICS. Discussion HICS provoked by ice water was more frequent, had a shorter latency, different pain character and higher pain intensity than HICS provoked by ice cubes. The finding of two subsequent HICS attacks in the same volunteers supports the notion that two types of HICS exist. Lacrimation during HICS indicates involvement of the trigeminal-autonomic reflex.

Anti-icing/frosting and self-cleaning performance of superhydrophobic aluminum alloys

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Libang; Yan, Zhongna; Shi, Xueting; Sultonzoda, Firdavs

2018-02-01

Ice formation and frost deposition on cryogenic equipment and systems can result in serious problems and huge economic loss. Hence, it is quite necessary to develop new materials to prevent icing and frosting on cold surfaces in engineering fields. Here, a superhydrophobic aluminum alloy with enhanced anti-frosting, anti-icing, and self-cleaning performance has been developed by a facile one-step method. The anti-frosting/icing performance of superhydrophobic aluminum alloys is confirmed by frosting/icing time delay, consolidating and freezing temperature reduction, and lower amount of frost/ice adhesion. Meanwhile, the excellent self-cleaning performance is authenticated by the fact that simulated pollution particles can be cleaned out by rolling water droplets completely. Finally, based on the classical nucleation theory, anti-icing and anti-frosting mechanisms of the superhydrophobic aluminum alloys are deduced. Results show that grounded on "air cushion" and "heat insulation" effect, a larger nucleation barrier and a lower crystal growth rate can be observed, which, hence, inhibit ice formation and frost deposition. It can be concluded that preparing superhydrophobic surfaces would be an effective strategy for improving anti-icing, anti-frosting, and self-cleaning performance of aluminum alloys.

Storage and release of organic carbon from glaciers and ice sheets

Science.gov (United States)

Hood, Eran; Battin, Tom J.; Fellman, Jason; O'Neel, Shad; Spencer, Robert G. M.

2015-02-01

Polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers, which cover roughly 11% of the Earth's land surface, store organic carbon from local and distant sources and then release it to downstream environments. Climate-driven changes to glacier runoff are expected to be larger than climate impacts on other components of the hydrological cycle, and may represent an important flux of organic carbon. A compilation of published data on dissolved organic carbon from glaciers across five continents reveals that mountain and polar glaciers represent a quantitatively important store of organic carbon. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the repository of most of the roughly 6 petagrams (Pg) of organic carbon stored in glacier ice, but the annual release of glacier organic carbon is dominated by mountain glaciers in the case of dissolved organic carbon and the Greenland Ice Sheet in the case of particulate organic carbon. Climate change contributes to these fluxes: approximately 13% of the annual flux of glacier dissolved organic carbon is a result of glacier mass loss. These losses are expected to accelerate, leading to a cumulative loss of roughly 15 teragrams (Tg) of glacial dissolved organic carbon by 2050 due to climate change -- equivalent to about half of the annual flux of dissolved organic carbon from the Amazon River. Thus, glaciers constitute a key link between terrestrial and aquatic carbon fluxes, and will be of increasing importance in land-to-ocean fluxes of organic carbon in glacierized regions.

Storage and release of organic carbon from glaciers and ice sheets

Science.gov (United States)

Hood, Eran; Battin, Tom J.; Fellman, Jason; O'Neel, Shad; Spencer, Robert G. M.

2015-01-01

Polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers, which cover roughly 11% of the Earth's land surface, store organic carbon from local and distant sources and then release it to downstream environments. Climate-driven changes to glacier runoff are expected to be larger than climate impacts on other components of the hydrological cycle, and may represent an important flux of organic carbon. A compilation of published data on dissolved organic carbon from glaciers across five continents reveals that mountain and polar glaciers represent a quantitatively important store of organic carbon. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the repository of most of the roughly 6 petagrams (Pg) of organic carbon stored in glacier ice, but the annual release of glacier organic carbon is dominated by mountain glaciers in the case of dissolved organic carbon and the Greenland Ice Sheet in the case of particulate organic carbon. Climate change contributes to these fluxes: approximately 13% of the annual flux of glacier dissolved organic carbon is a result of glacier mass loss. These losses are expected to accelerate, leading to a cumulative loss of roughly 15 teragrams (Tg) of glacial dissolved organic carbon by 2050 due to climate change — equivalent to about half of the annual flux of dissolved organic carbon from the Amazon River. Thus, glaciers constitute a key link between terrestrial and aquatic carbon fluxes, and will be of increasing importance in land-to-ocean fluxes of organic carbon in glacierized regions.

The sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet to glacial-interglacial oceanic forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Tabone, Ilaria; Blasco, Javier; Robinson, Alexander; Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Montoya, Marisa

2018-04-01

Observations suggest that during the last decades the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has experienced a gradually accelerating mass loss, in part due to the observed speed-up of several of Greenland's marine-terminating glaciers. Recent studies directly attribute this to warming North Atlantic temperatures, which have triggered melting of the outlet glaciers of the GrIS, grounding-line retreat and enhanced ice discharge into the ocean, contributing to an acceleration of sea-level rise. Reconstructions suggest that the influence of the ocean has been of primary importance in the past as well. This was the case not only in interglacial periods, when warmer climates led to a rapid retreat of the GrIS to land above sea level, but also in glacial periods, when the GrIS expanded as far as the continental shelf break and was thus more directly exposed to oceanic changes. However, the GrIS response to palaeo-oceanic variations has yet to be investigated in detail from a mechanistic modelling perspective. In this work, the evolution of the GrIS over the past two glacial cycles is studied using a three-dimensional hybrid ice-sheet-shelf model. We assess the effect of the variation of oceanic temperatures on the GrIS evolution on glacial-interglacial timescales through changes in submarine melting. The results show a very high sensitivity of the GrIS to changing oceanic conditions. Oceanic forcing is found to be a primary driver of GrIS expansion in glacial times and of retreat in interglacial periods. If switched off, palaeo-atmospheric variations alone are not able to yield a reliable glacial configuration of the GrIS. This work therefore suggests that considering the ocean as an active forcing should become standard practice in palaeo-ice-sheet modelling.

Implications of Contingency Planning Support for Weather and Icing Information

Science.gov (United States)

Vigeant-Langlois, Laurence; Hansman, R. John, Jr.

2003-01-01

A human-centered systems analysis was applied to the adverse aircraft weather encounter problem in order to identify desirable functions of weather and icing information. The importance of contingency planning was identified as emerging from a system safety design methodology as well as from results of other aviation decision-making studies. The relationship between contingency planning support and information on regions clear of adverse weather was investigated in a scenario- based analysis. A rapid prototype example of the key elements in the depiction of icing conditions was developed in a case study, and the implications for the components of the icing information system were articulated.

Evaluation of the sea ice proxy IP against observational and diatom proxy data in the SW Labrador Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Weckström, K.; Andersen, M.L.; Kuijpers, A.

2013-01-01

The recent rapid decline in Arctic sea ice cover has increased the need to improve the accuracy of the sea ice component in climate models and to provide detailed long-term sea ice concentration records, which are only available via proxy data. Recently, the highly branched isoprenoid IP25...

Greenland ice sheet model parameters constrained using simulations of the Eemian Interglacial

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Robinson

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Using a new approach to force an ice sheet model, we performed an ensemble of simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet evolution during the last two glacial cycles, with emphasis on the Eemian Interglacial. This ensemble was generated by perturbing four key parameters in the coupled regional climate-ice sheet model and by introducing additional uncertainty in the prescribed "background" climate change. The sensitivity of the surface melt model to climate change was determined to be the dominant driver of ice sheet instability, as reflected by simulated ice sheet loss during the Eemian Interglacial period. To eliminate unrealistic parameter combinations, constraints from present-day and paleo information were applied. The constraints include (i the diagnosed present-day surface mass balance partition between surface melting and ice discharge at the margin, (ii the modeled present-day elevation at GRIP; and (iii the modeled elevation reduction at GRIP during the Eemian. Using these three constraints, a total of 360 simulations with 90 different model realizations were filtered down to 46 simulations and 20 model realizations considered valid. The paleo constraint eliminated more sensitive melt parameter values, in agreement with the surface mass balance partition assumption. The constrained simulations resulted in a range of Eemian ice loss of 0.4–4.4 m sea level equivalent, with a more likely range of about 3.7–4.4 m sea level if the GRIP δ¹⁸O isotope record can be considered an accurate proxy for the precipitation-weighted annual mean temperatures.

Rapid climate variability during warm and cold periods in polar regions and Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Masson-Delmotte, V.; Landais, A.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.

2005-01-01

Typical rapid climate events punctuating the last glacial period in Greenland, Europe and Antarctica are compared to two rapid events occurring under warmer conditions: (i) Dansgaard-Oeschger event 25, the first abrupt warming occurring during last glacial inception; (ii) 8.2 ka BP event, the only...... rapid cooling recorded during the Holocene in Greenland ice cores and in Ammersee, Germany. The rate of warming during previous warmer interglacial periods is estimated from polar ice cores to 1.5 °C per millennium, without abrupt changes. Climate change expected for the 21st century should however...

The Antarctic Ice Sheet, Sea Ice, and the Ozone Hole: Satellite Observations of how they are Changing

Science.gov (United States)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2012-01-01

Antarctica is the Earth's coldest and highest continent and has major impacts on the climate and life of the south polar vicinity. It is covered almost entirely by the Earth's largest ice sheet by far, with a volume of ice so great that if all the Antarctic ice were to go into the ocean (as ice or liquid water), this would produce a global sea level rise of about 60 meters (197 feet). The continent is surrounded by sea ice that in the wintertime is even more expansive than the continent itself and in the summertime reduces to only about a sixth of its wintertime extent. Like the continent, the expansive sea ice cover has major impacts, reflecting the sun's radiation back to space, blocking exchanges between the ocean and the atmosphere, and providing a platform for some animal species while impeding other species. Far above the continent, the Antarctic ozone hole is a major atmospheric phenomenon recognized as human-caused and potentially quite serious to many different life forms. Satellites are providing us with remarkable information about the ice sheet, the sea ice, and the ozone hole. Satellite visible and radar imagery are providing views of the large scale structure of the ice sheet never seen before; satellite laser altimetry has produced detailed maps of the topography of the ice sheet; and an innovative gravity-measuring two-part satellite has allowed mapping of regions of mass loss and mass gain on the ice sheet. The surrounding sea ice cover has a satellite record that goes back to the 1970s, allowing trend studies that show a decreasing sea ice presence in the region of the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas, to the west of the prominent Antarctic Peninsula, but increasing sea ice presence around much of the rest of the continent. Overall, sea ice extent around Antarctica has increased at an average rate of about 17,000 square kilometers per year since the late 1970s, as determined from satellite microwave data that can be collected under both light and

Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2C Global Warming Could Be Dangerous

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, J.; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric;

Low salinity and high-level UV-B radiation reduce single-cell activity in antarctic sea ice bacteria.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Andrew; Hall, Julie; Ryan, Ken

2009-12-01

Experiments simulating the sea ice cycle were conducted by exposing microbes from Antarctic fast ice to saline and irradiance regimens associated with the freeze-thaw process. In contrast to hypersaline conditions (ice formation), the simulated release of bacteria into hyposaline seawater combined with rapid exposure to increased UV-B radiation significantly reduced metabolic activity.

Environmental predictors of ice seal presence in the Bering Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Miksis-Olds, Jennifer L; Madden, Laura E

2014-01-01

Ice seals overwintering in the Bering Sea are challenged with foraging, finding mates, and maintaining breathing holes in a dark and ice covered environment. Due to the difficulty of studying these species in their natural environment, very little is known about how the seals navigate under ice. Here we identify specific environmental parameters, including components of the ambient background sound, that are predictive of ice seal presence in the Bering Sea. Multi-year mooring deployments provided synoptic time series of acoustic and oceanographic parameters from which environmental parameters predictive of species presence were identified through a series of mixed models. Ice cover and 10 kHz sound level were significant predictors of seal presence, with 40 kHz sound and prey presence (combined with ice cover) as potential predictors as well. Ice seal presence showed a strong positive correlation with ice cover and a negative association with 10 kHz environmental sound. On average, there was a 20-30 dB difference between sound levels during solid ice conditions compared to open water or melting conditions, providing a salient acoustic gradient between open water and solid ice conditions by which ice seals could orient. By constantly assessing the acoustic environment associated with the seasonal ice movement in the Bering Sea, it is possible that ice seals could utilize aspects of the soundscape to gauge their safe distance to open water or the ice edge by orienting in the direction of higher sound levels indicative of open water, especially in the frequency range above 1 kHz. In rapidly changing Arctic and sub-Arctic environments, the seasonal ice conditions and soundscapes are likely to change which may impact the ability of animals using ice presence and cues to successfully function during the winter breeding season.

Environmental predictors of ice seal presence in the Bering Sea.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer L Miksis-Olds

Full Text Available Ice seals overwintering in the Bering Sea are challenged with foraging, finding mates, and maintaining breathing holes in a dark and ice covered environment. Due to the difficulty of studying these species in their natural environment, very little is known about how the seals navigate under ice. Here we identify specific environmental parameters, including components of the ambient background sound, that are predictive of ice seal presence in the Bering Sea. Multi-year mooring deployments provided synoptic time series of acoustic and oceanographic parameters from which environmental parameters predictive of species presence were identified through a series of mixed models. Ice cover and 10 kHz sound level were significant predictors of seal presence, with 40 kHz sound and prey presence (combined with ice cover as potential predictors as well. Ice seal presence showed a strong positive correlation with ice cover and a negative association with 10 kHz environmental sound. On average, there was a 20-30 dB difference between sound levels during solid ice conditions compared to open water or melting conditions, providing a salient acoustic gradient between open water and solid ice conditions by which ice seals could orient. By constantly assessing the acoustic environment associated with the seasonal ice movement in the Bering Sea, it is possible that ice seals could utilize aspects of the soundscape to gauge their safe distance to open water or the ice edge by orienting in the direction of higher sound levels indicative of open water, especially in the frequency range above 1 kHz. In rapidly changing Arctic and sub-Arctic environments, the seasonal ice conditions and soundscapes are likely to change which may impact the ability of animals using ice presence and cues to successfully function during the winter breeding season.

Speedup and fracturing of George VI Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. O. Holt

2013-05-01

Full Text Available George VI Ice Shelf (GVIIS is located on the Antarctic Peninsula, a region where several ice shelves have undergone rapid breakup in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming. We use a combination of optical (Landsat, radar (ERS 1/2 SAR and laser altimetry (GLAS datasets to examine the response of GVIIS to environmental change and to offer an assessment on its future stability. The spatial and structural changes of GVIIS (ca. 1973 to ca. 2010 are mapped and surface velocities are calculated at different time periods (InSAR and optical feature tracking from 1989 to 2009 to document changes in the ice shelf's flow regime. Surface elevation changes are recorded between 2003 and 2008 using repeat track ICESat acquisitions. We note an increase in fracture extent and distribution at the south ice front, ice-shelf acceleration towards both the north and south ice fronts and spatially varied negative surface elevation change throughout, with greater variations observed towards the central and southern regions of the ice shelf. We propose that whilst GVIIS is in no imminent danger of collapse, it is vulnerable to ongoing atmospheric and oceanic warming and is more susceptible to breakup along its southern margin in ice preconditioned for further retreat.

Ice flow Modelling of the Greenland Ice Sheet

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Lisbeth Tangaa

Models of ice flow have a range of application in glaciology, including investigating the large-scale response of ice sheets to changes in climate, assimilating data to estimate unknown conditions beneath the ice sheet, and in interpreting proxy records obtained from ice cores, among others. In t...... a steady state with respect to the reference climate at the end of the simulation and that the mass balance of the ice sheet at this time was more sensitive to recent climate fluctuations than the temperature forcing in the early or mid-Holocene.......Models of ice flow have a range of application in glaciology, including investigating the large-scale response of ice sheets to changes in climate, assimilating data to estimate unknown conditions beneath the ice sheet, and in interpreting proxy records obtained from ice cores, among others....... In this PhD project, the use of ice flow models for the interpretation of the age-structure of the Greenland ice sheet, i.e. the depth within the ice, at which ice deposited at given times are found at present day. Two different observational data sets of this archive were investigated. Further, paleo...

Arctic sea-ice ridges—Safe heavens for sea-ice fauna during periods of extreme ice melt?

Science.gov (United States)

Gradinger, Rolf; Bluhm, Bodil; Iken, Katrin

2010-01-01

The abundances and distribution of metazoan within-ice meiofauna (13 stations) and under-ice fauna (12 stations) were investigated in level sea ice and sea-ice ridges in the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas and Canada Basin in June/July 2005 using a combination of ice coring and SCUBA diving. Ice meiofauna abundance was estimated based on live counts in the bottom 30 cm of level sea ice based on triplicate ice core sampling at each location, and in individual ice chunks from ridges at four locations. Under-ice amphipods were counted in situ in replicate ( N=24-65 per station) 0.25 m 2 quadrats using SCUBA to a maximum water depth of 12 m. In level sea ice, the most abundant ice meiofauna groups were Turbellaria (46%), Nematoda (35%), and Harpacticoida (19%), with overall low abundances per station that ranged from 0.0 to 10.9 ind l -1 (median 0.8 ind l -1). In level ice, low ice algal pigment concentrations (Turbellaria, Nematoda and Harpacticoida also were observed in pressure ridges (0-200 ind l -1, median 40 ind l -1), although values were highly variable and only medians of Turbellaria were significantly higher in ridge ice than in level ice. Median abundances of under-ice amphipods at all ice types (level ice, various ice ridge structures) ranged from 8 to 114 ind m -2 per station and mainly consisted of Apherusa glacialis (87%), Onisimus spp. (7%) and Gammarus wilkitzkii (6%). Highest amphipod abundances were observed in pressure ridges at depths >3 m where abundances were up to 42-fold higher compared with level ice. We propose that the summer ice melt impacted meiofauna and under-ice amphipod abundance and distribution through (a) flushing, and (b) enhanced salinity stress at thinner level sea ice (less than 3 m thickness). We further suggest that pressure ridges, which extend into deeper, high-salinity water, become accumulation regions for ice meiofauna and under-ice amphipods in summer. Pressure ridges thus might be crucial for faunal survival during periods of

Recent applications for rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses with ELER Software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Demircioglu, M.B.; Erdik, M.; Kamer, Y.; Sesetyan, K.; Tuzun, C.

2012-01-01

A methodology and software package entitled Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine (ELER) was developed for rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses throughout the Euro-Mediterranean region. The work was carried out under the Joint Research Activity-3 (JRA3) of the EC FP6 project entitled Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology (NERIES). The ELER methodology anticipates: 1) finding of the most likely location of the source of the earthquake using regional seismo-tectonic data base; 2) estimation of the spatial distribution of selected ground motion parameters at engineering bedrock through region specific ground motion prediction models, bias-correcting the ground motion estimations with strong ground motion data, if available; 3) estimation of the spatial distribution of site-corrected ground motion parameters using regional geology database using appropriate amplification models; and 4) estimation of the losses and uncertainties at various orders of sophistication (buildings, casualties). The multi-level methodology developed for real time estimation of losses is capable of incorporating regional variability and sources of uncertainty stemming from ground motion predictions, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships which are coded into ELER. The present paper provides brief information on the methodology of ELER and provides an example application with the recent major earthquake that hit the Van province in the east of Turkey on 23 October 2011 with moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.2. For this earthquake, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) provided almost real time estimations in terms of building damage and casualty distribution using ELER. (author)

Global earthquake casualties due to secondary effects: A quantitative analysis for improving rapid loss analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Marano, K.D.; Wald, D.J.; Allen, T.I.

2010-01-01

This study presents a quantitative and geospatial description of global losses due to earthquake-induced secondary effects, including landslide, liquefaction, tsunami, and fire for events during the past 40 years. These processes are of great importance to the US Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which is currently being developed to deliver rapid earthquake impact and loss assessments following large/significant global earthquakes. An important question is how dominant are losses due to secondary effects (and under what conditions, and in which regions)? Thus, which of these effects should receive higher priority research efforts in order to enhance PAGER's overall assessment of earthquakes losses and alerting for the likelihood of secondary impacts? We find that while 21.5% of fatal earthquakes have deaths due to secondary (non-shaking) causes, only rarely are secondary effects the main cause of fatalities. The recent 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake is a notable exception, with extraordinary losses due to tsunami. The potential for secondary hazards varies greatly, and systematically, due to regional geologic and geomorphic conditions. Based on our findings, we have built country-specific disclaimers for PAGER that address potential for each hazard (Earle et al., Proceedings of the 14th World Conference of the Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China, 2008). We will now focus on ways to model casualties from secondary effects based on their relative importance as well as their general predictability. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

MELCOR 1.8.1 assessment: PNL Ice Condenser Aerosol Experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gross, R.J.

1993-06-01

The MELCOR code was used to simulate PNL's Ice Condenser Experiments 11-6 and 16-11. In these experiments, ZnS was injected into a mixing chamber, and the combined steam/air/aerosol mixture flowed into an ice condenser which was l4.7m tall. Experiment 11-6 was a low flow test; Experiment l6-1l was a high flow test. Temperatures in the ice condenser region and particle retention were measured in these tests. MELCOR predictions compared very well to the experimental data. The MELCOR calculations were also compared to CONTAIN code calculations for the same tests. A number of sensitivity studies were performed. It as found that simulation time step, aerosol parameters such as the number of MAEROS components and sections used and the particle density, and ice condenser parameters such as the energy capacity of the ice, ice heat transfer coefficient multiplier, and ice heat structure characteristic length all could affect the results. Thermal/hydraulic parameters such as control volume equilibrium assumptions, flow loss coefficients, and the bubble rise model were found to affect the results less significantly. MELCOR results were not machine dependent for this problem

Temporal dynamics of ikaite in experimental sea ice

Science.gov (United States)

Rysgaard, S.; Wang, F.; Galley, R. J.; Grimm, R.; Notz, D.; Lemes, M.; Geilfus, N.-X.; Chaulk, A.; Hare, A. A.; Crabeck, O.; Else, B. G. T.; Campbell, K.; Sørensen, L. L.; Sievers, J.; Papakyriakou, T.

2014-08-01

Ikaite (CaCO3 · 6H2O) is a metastable phase of calcium carbonate that normally forms in a cold environment and/or under high pressure. Recently, ikaite crystals have been found in sea ice, and it has been suggested that their precipitation may play an important role in air-sea CO2 exchange in ice-covered seas. Little is known, however, of the spatial and temporal dynamics of ikaite in sea ice. Here we present evidence for highly dynamic ikaite precipitation and dissolution in sea ice grown at an outdoor pool of the Sea-ice Environmental Research Facility (SERF) in Manitoba, Canada. During the experiment, ikaite precipitated in sea ice when temperatures were below -4 °C, creating three distinct zones of ikaite concentrations: (1) a millimeter-to-centimeter-thin surface layer containing frost flowers and brine skim with bulk ikaite concentrations of >2000 μmol kg-1, (2) an internal layer with ikaite concentrations of 200-400 μmol kg-1, and (3) a bottom layer with ikaite concentrations of ikaite crystals to dissolve. Manual removal of the snow cover allowed the sea ice to cool and brine salinities to increase, resulting in rapid ikaite precipitation. The observed ikaite concentrations were on the same order of magnitude as modeled by FREZCHEM, which further supports the notion that ikaite concentration in sea ice increases with decreasing temperature. Thus, varying snow conditions may play a key role in ikaite precipitation and dissolution in sea ice. This could have a major implication for CO2 exchange with the atmosphere and ocean that has not been accounted for previously.

Forecasting Production Losses at a Swedish Wind Farm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

compared this statistical model with a simpler method that does not rely on a physical icing model. In that method meteorological icing is identified as periods when WRF forecasts clouds and the temperature is below freezing. During these periods it is assumed that there is no production from the turbines...... shown to predict periods of icing at a wind farm in northern Sweden (Davis et al, 2012) with improved skill compared to persistence and threshold models. Based on these results, we have developed a statistical model to estimate the loss of production at the wind park due to these icing periods. We......, however as soon as the cloud goes away in the model we assume production returns to the idealized power curve. One unique aspect of the wind park we are working with is that it is not required to shut down when icing occurs. Therefore, during icing periods production still occurs, but below the idealized...

Ice ages and the thermal equilibrium of the earth, II

Science.gov (United States)

Adam, D.P.

1975-01-01

The energy required to sustain midlatitude continental glaciations comes from solar radiation absorbed by the oceans. It is made available through changes in relative amounts of energy lost from the sea surface as net outgoing infrared radiation, sensible heat loss, and latent heat loss. Ice sheets form in response to the initial occurrence of a large perennial snowfield in the subarctic. When such a snowfield forms, it undergoes a drastic reduction in absorbed solar energy because of its high albedo. When the absorbed solar energy cannot supply local infrared radiation losses, the snowfield cools, thus increasing the energy gradient between itself and external, warmer areas that can act as energy sources. Cooling of the snowfield progresses until the energy gradients between the snowfield and external heat sources are sufficient to bring in enough (latent plus sensible) energy to balance the energy budget over the snowfield. Much of the energy is imported as latent heat. The snow that falls and nourishes the ice sheet is a by-product of the process used to satisfy the energy balance requirements of the snowfield. The oceans are the primary energy source for the ice sheet because only the ocean can supply large amounts of latent heat. At first, some of the energy extracted by the ice sheet from the ocean is stored heat, so the ocean cools. As it cools, less energy is lost as net outgoing infrared radiation, and the energy thus saved is then available to augment evaporation. The ratio between sensible and latent heat lost by the ocean is the Bowen ratio; it depends in part on the sea surface temperature. As the sea surface temperature falls during a glaciation, the Bowen ratio increases, until most of the available energy leaves the oceans as sensible, rather than latent heat. The ice sheet starves, and an interglacial period begins. The oscillations between stadial and interstadial intervals within a glaciation are caused by the effects of varying amounts of

Atmospheric Influences on the Anomalous 2016 Antarctic Sea Ice Decay

Science.gov (United States)

Raphael, M. N.; Schlosser, E.; Haumann, A.

2017-12-01

Over the past three decades, a small but significant increase in sea ice extent (SIE) has been observed in the Antarctic. However, in 2016 there was a surprisingly early onset of the melt season. The maximum Antarctic SIE was reached in August rather than end of September, and was followed by a rapid decrease. The decline of the sea ice area (SIA) started even earlier, in July. The retreat of the ice was particularly large in November where Antarctic SIE exhibited a negative anomaly (compared to the 1981-2010 average) of almost 2 Mio. km2, which, combined with reduced Arctic SIE, led to a distinct minimum in global SIE. And, satellite observations show that from November 2016 to February 2017, the daily Antarctic SIE has been at record low levels. We use sea level pressure and geopotential height data from the ECMWF- Interim reanalysis, in conjunction with sea ice data obtained from the National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC), to investigate possible atmospheric influences on the observed phenomena. Indications are that both the onset of the melt in July and the rapid decrease in SIA and SIE in November were triggered by atmospheric flow patterns related to a positive Zonal Wave 3 index, i.e. synoptic situations leading to strong meridional flow. Additionally the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index reached its second lowest November value since the beginning of the satellite observations. It is likely that the SIE decrease was preconditioned by SIA decrease. Positive feedback effects led to accelerated melt and consequently to the extraordinary low November SIE.

Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Hansen

2016-03-01

Full Text Available We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10–40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500–2000-year timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to +6–9 m with evidence of extreme storms

Mass loss from the southern half of the Greenland Ice Sheet since the Little Ice Age

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjeldsen, Kristian K.; Kjær, Kurt H.; Bjørn, Anders A.

2013-01-01

Northern hemisphere temperatures reached their Holocene minimum and most glaciers reached their maximum during The Little Ice Age (LIA), but the timing of specific cold intervals is site-specific. In southern Greenland, we have compiled data from organic matter incorporated in LIA sediments, used...... retreat. Our results show that the advance of glaciers during the LIA occurs early after the Medieval Warm Period terminating soon after 1200 AD and culminates c. 1500-1600 AD. Historical maps also show that many glaciers on the western coast occupy a still-stand near the LIA maximum until 1900 AD before...

Ice immersion as a postharvest treatment of oysters for the reduction of Vibrio vulnificus.

Science.gov (United States)

Quevedo, Ana C; Smith, James G; Rodrick, Gary E; Wright, Anita C

2005-06-01

Vibrio vulnificus produces serious illnesses that are commonly associated with shellfish consumption, particularly raw oysters. Ingestion can result in fatal septicemia in susceptible individuals with hepatitis, cirrhosis, immune dysfunction, diabetes, or hemochromatosis (metabolic iron overload). Therefore, postharvest treatments to reduce vibrio levels in oysters have been recommended. In this study, rapid chilling by immersion of unwashed whole oysters in ice for 3 h was assessed as a postharvest treatment for reduction of V. vulnificus. Treated oysters were subsequently refrigerated at 45 degrees F (7.2 degrees C), whereas control oysters were not iced but were maintained at 45 degrees F throughout the study. Homogenized meats were monitored for total heterotrophic aerobic bacteria, V. vulnificus, and fecal coliform content before and after treatment over a 2-week period. V. vulnificus was enumerated by DNA probe hybridization of colonies from standard plate counts on nonselective medium, and recovery was compared for several media. Loss of plating efficiency was observed on standard selective and differential media compared with nonselective agars. Numbers of V. vulnificus generally declined in treated samples compared with controls; however, increases in total heterotrophic bacteria and fecal coliforms were also observed in treated samples at some time points. This study does not support the use of ice immersion as a postharvest method because of the relatively small declines in V. vulnificus numbers and the possibility of concomitant increases in fecal coliform and total bacterial contamination.

Rate of ice accumulation during ice storms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Feknous, N. [SNC-Lavalin, Montreal, PQ (Canada); Chouinard, L. [McGill Univ., Montreal, PQ (Canada); Sabourin, G. [Hydro-Quebec, Montreal, PQ (Canada)

2005-07-01

The rate of glaze ice accumulation is the result of a complex process dependent on numerous meteorological and physical factors. The aim of this paper was to estimate the distribution rate of glaze ice accumulation on conductors in southern Quebec for use in the design of mechanical and electrical de-icing devices. The analysis was based on direct observations of ice accumulation collected on passive ice meters. The historical database of Hydro-Quebec, which contains observations at over 140 stations over period of 25 years, was used to compute accumulation rates. Data was processed so that each glaze ice event was numbered in a chronological sequence. Each event consisted of the time series of ice accumulations on each of the 8 cylinders of the ice meters, as well as on 5 of its surfaces. Observed rates were converted to represent the average ice on a 30 mm diameter conductor at 30 m above ground with a span of 300 m. Observations were corrected to account for the water content of the glaze ice as evidenced by the presence of icicles. Results indicated that despite significant spatial variations in the expected severity of ice storms as a function of location, the distribution function for rates of accumulation were fairly similar and could be assumed to be independent of location. It was concluded that the observations from several sites could be combined in order to obtain better estimates of the distribution of hourly rates of ice accumulation. However, the rates were highly variable. For de-icing strategies, it was suggested that average accumulation rates over 12 hour periods were preferable, and that analyses should be performed for other time intervals to account for the variability in ice accumulation rates over time. In addition, accumulation rates did not appear to be highly correlated with average wind speed for maximum hourly accumulation rates. 3 refs., 2 tabs., 10 figs.

Variability and Anomalous Trends in the Global Sea Ice Cover

Science.gov (United States)

Comiso, Josefino C.

2012-01-01

The advent of satellite data came fortuitously at a time when the global sea ice cover has been changing rapidly and new techniques are needed to accurately assess the true state and characteristics of the global sea ice cover. The extent of the sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere has been declining by about -4% per decade for the period 1979 to 2011 but for the period from 1996 to 2010, the rate of decline became even more negative at -8% per decade, indicating an acceleration in the decline. More intriguing is the drastically declining perennial sea ice area, which is the ice that survives the summer melt and observed to be retreating at the rate of -14% per decade during the 1979 to 2012 period. Although a slight recovery occurred in the last three years from an abrupt decline in 2007, the perennial ice extent was almost as low as in 2007 in 2011. The multiyear ice, which is the thick component of the perennial ice and regarded as the mainstay of the Arctic sea ice cover is declining at an even higher rate of -19% per decade. The more rapid decline of the extent of this thicker ice type means that the volume of the ice is also declining making the survival of the Arctic ice in summer highly questionable. The slight recovery in 2008, 2009 and 2010 for the perennial ice in summer was likely associated with an apparent cycle in the time series with a period of about 8 years. Results of analysis of concurrent MODIS and AMSR-E data in summer also provide some evidence of more extensive summer melt and meltponding in 2007 and 2011 than in other years. Meanwhile, the Antarctic sea ice cover, as observed by the same set of satellite data, is showing an unexpected and counter intuitive increase of about 1 % per decade over the same period. Although a strong decline in ice extent is apparent in the Bellingshausen/ Amundsen Seas region, such decline is more than compensated by increases in the extent of the sea ice cover in the Ross Sea region. The results of analysis of

Local Effects of Ice Floes on Skin Sea Surface Temperature in the Marginal Ice Zone from UAVs

Science.gov (United States)

Zappa, C. J.; Brown, S.; Emery, W. J.; Adler, J.; Wick, G. A.; Steele, M.; Palo, S. E.; Walker, G.; Maslanik, J. A.

2013-12-01

Recent years have seen extreme changes in the Arctic. Particularly striking are changes within the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean, and especially in the seas north of the Alaskan coast. These areas have experienced record warming, reduced sea ice extent, and loss of ice in areas that had been ice-covered throughout human memory. Even the oldest and thickest ice types have failed to survive through the summer melt period in areas such as the Beaufort Sea and Canada Basin, and fundamental changes in ocean conditions such as earlier phytoplankton blooms may be underway. Marginal ice zones (MIZ), or areas where the "ice-albedo feedback" driven by solar warming is highest and ice melt is extensive, may provide insights into the extent of these changes. Airborne remote sensing, in particular InfraRed (IR), offers a unique opportunity to observe physical processes at sea-ice margins. It permits monitoring the ice extent and coverage, as well as the ice and ocean temperature variability. It can also be used for derivation of surface flow field allowing investigation of turbulence and mixing at the ice-ocean interface. Here, we present measurements of visible and IR imagery of melting ice floes in the marginal ice zone north of Oliktok Point AK in the Beaufort Sea made during the Marginal Ice Zone Ocean and Ice Observations and Processes EXperiment (MIZOPEX) in July-August 2013. The visible and IR imagery were taken from the unmanned airborne vehicle (UAV) ScanEagle. The visible imagery clearly defines the scale of the ice floes. The IR imagery show distinct cooling of the skin sea surface temperature (SST) as well as a intricate circulation and mixing pattern that depends on the surface current, wind speed, and near-surface vertical temperature/salinity structure. Individual ice floes develop turbulent wakes as they drift and cause transient mixing of an influx of colder surface (fresh) melt water. The upstream side of the ice floe shows the coldest skin SST, and

Antarctic Ice Shelf Potentially Stabilized by Export of Meltwater in Surface River

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Robin E.; Chu, Winnie; Kingslake, Jonathan; Das, Indrani; Tedesco, Marco; Tinto, Kirsty J.; Zappa, Christopher J.; Frezzotti, Massimo; Boghosian, Alexandra; Lee, Won Sang

2017-01-01

Meltwater stored in ponds and crevasses can weaken and fracture ice shelves, triggering their rapid disintegration. This ice-shelf collapse results in an increased flux of ice from adjacent glaciers and ice streams, thereby raising sea level globally. However, surface rivers forming on ice shelves could potentially export stored meltwater and prevent its destructive effects. Here we present evidence for persistent active drainage networks-interconnected streams, ponds and rivers-on the Nansen Ice Shelf in Antarctica that export a large fraction of the ice shelf's meltwater into the ocean. We find that active drainage has exported water off the ice surface through waterfalls and dolines for more than a century. The surface river terminates in a 130-metre-wide waterfall that can export the entire annual surface melt over the course of seven days. During warmer melt seasons, these drainage networks adapt to changing environmental conditions by remaining active for longer and exporting more water. Similar networks are present on the ice shelf in front of Petermann Glacier, Greenland, but other systems, such as on the Larsen C and Amery Ice Shelves, retain surface water at present. The underlying reasons for export versus retention remain unclear. Nonetheless our results suggest that, in a future warming climate, surface rivers could export melt off the large ice shelves surrounding Antarctica-contrary to present Antarctic ice-sheet models, which assume that meltwater is stored on the ice surface where it triggers ice-shelf disintegration.

Mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet - a study of ICESat data, surface density and firn compaction modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, L. S.; Simonsen, Sebastian Bjerregaard; Nielsen, K.

2010-01-01

ICESat has provided surface elevation measurements of the ice sheets since the launch in January 2003, resulting in a unique data set for monitoring the changes of the cryosphere. Here we present a novel method for determining the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet derived from ICESat...... in estimating the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet. We find firn dynamics and surface densities to be important factors in deriving the mass loss from remote sensing altimetry. The volume change derived from ICESat data is corrected for firn compaction, vertical bedrock movement and an intercampaign...... boundary conditions. We find an annual mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet of 210 ± 21 Gt yr-1 in the period from October 2003 to March 2008. This result is in good agreement with other studies of the Greenland ice sheet mass balance, based on different remote sensing techniques....

Coastal conduit in southwestern Hudson Bay (Canada) in summer: Rapid transit of freshwater and significant loss of colored dissolved organic matter

Science.gov (United States)

Granskog, Mats A.; MacDonald, Robie W.; Kuzyk, Zou Zou A.; Senneville, Simon; Mundy, Christopher-John; Barber, David G.; Stern, Gary A.; Saucier, Francois

2009-08-01

Distributions of freshwater (sea-ice melt and runoff) were investigated along inshore-offshore sections in southwestern Hudson Bay for fall conditions. Conductivity-temperature-density profiles and bottle samples collected for salinity, oxygen isotope (δ18O), and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) analyses were used to discriminate between contributions of river water (RW) and sea-ice melt (SIM). Stations had a fresh summer surface mixed layer 5-25 m thick overlying a cold subsurface layer indicative of the previous winter's polar mixed layer (PML). The fraction of RW decreased strongly with distance from shore, while the opposite was true for SIM. The majority of RW was constrained in a coastal domain within 100-150 km from shore, which, because of high alongshore velocities, accounts for the majority of freshwater and volume transports. On the basis of freshwater inventories and composition, brine and RW accumulate in the PML over winter because of ice formation and downward mixing. The summer surface circulation results in an annual net export of SIM from the region. Residence times for freshwater components in the southwestern sector of the bay, based on currents derived from a 3-D ocean model for Hudson Bay, are about 1-10 months, implying rapid transit of freshwater. Despite the short residence time for RW (1-3 months), CDOM is significantly photobleached and provides an unreliable tracer for RW. Photobleaching represents an important sink for dissolved organic carbon entering from rivers and could, in part, explain why Hudson Bay is only a minor sink for atmospheric CO2 in the open water season.

A Comparison of MODIS/VIIRS Cloud Masks over Ice-Bearing River: On Achieving Consistent Cloud Masking and Improved River Ice Mapping

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon Kraatz

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The capability of frequently and accurately monitoring ice on rivers is important, since it may be possible to timely identify ice accumulations corresponding to ice jams. Ice jams are dam-like structures formed from arrested ice floes, and may cause rapid flooding. To inform on this potential hazard, the CREST River Ice Observing System (CRIOS produces ice cover maps based on MODIS and VIIRS overpass data at several locations, including the Susquehanna River. CRIOS uses the respective platform’s automatically produced cloud masks to discriminate ice/snow covered grid cells from clouds. However, since cloud masks are produced using each instrument’s data, and owing to differences in detector performance, it is quite possible that identical algorithms applied to even nearly identical instruments may produce substantially different cloud masks. Besides detector performance, cloud identification can be biased due to local (e.g., land cover, viewing geometry, and transient conditions (snow and ice. Snow/cloud confusions and large view angles can result in substantial overestimates of clouds and ice. This impacts algorithms, such as CRIOS, since false cloud cover precludes the determination of whether an otherwise reasonably cloud free grid consists of water or ice. Especially for applications aiming to frequently classify or monitor a location it is important to evaluate cloud masking, including false cloud detections. We present an assessment of three cloud masks via the parameter of effective revisit time. A 100 km stretch of up to 1.6 km wide river was examined with daily data sampled at 500 m resolution, examined over 317 days during winter. Results show that there are substantial differences between each of the cloud mask products, especially while the river bears ice. A contrast-based cloud screening approach was found to provide improved and consistent cloud and ice identification within the reach (95%–99% correlations, and 3%–7% mean

Vigorous lateral export of the meltwater outflow from beneath an Antarctic ice shelf.

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Garabato, Alberto C Naveira; Forryan, Alexander; Dutrieux, Pierre; Brannigan, Liam; Biddle, Louise C; Heywood, Karen J; Jenkins, Adrian; Firing, Yvonne L; Kimura, Satoshi

2017-02-09

The instability and accelerated melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet are among the foremost elements of contemporary global climate change. The increased freshwater output from Antarctica is important in determining sea level rise, the fate of Antarctic sea ice and its effect on the Earth's albedo, ongoing changes in global deep-ocean ventilation, and the evolution of Southern Ocean ecosystems and carbon cycling. A key uncertainty in assessing and predicting the impacts of Antarctic Ice Sheet melting concerns the vertical distribution of the exported meltwater. This is usually represented by climate-scale models as a near-surface freshwater input to the ocean, yet measurements around Antarctica reveal the meltwater to be concentrated at deeper levels. Here we use observations of the turbulent properties of the meltwater outflows from beneath a rapidly melting Antarctic ice shelf to identify the mechanism responsible for the depth of the meltwater. We show that the initial ascent of the meltwater outflow from the ice shelf cavity triggers a centrifugal overturning instability that grows by extracting kinetic energy from the lateral shear of the background oceanic flow. The instability promotes vigorous lateral export, rapid dilution by turbulent mixing, and finally settling of meltwater at depth. We use an idealized ocean circulation model to show that this mechanism is relevant to a broad spectrum of Antarctic ice shelves. Our findings demonstrate that the mechanism producing meltwater at depth is a dynamically robust feature of Antarctic melting that should be incorporated into climate-scale models.

Periodic fluctuations in deep water formation due to sea ice

Science.gov (United States)

Saha, R.

2012-12-01

During the last ice age, several abrupt warming events took place, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events. Their effects were felt globally, although the North Atlantic experienced the largest temperature increase. The leading hypothesis to explain their occurrence postulates that the warming was caused by abrupt disruptions of the North Atlantic Current due to meltwater discharge from destabilized ice sheets (Heinrich events). However, the number of warming events outnumber the those of ice-sheet collapse. Thus, the majority of D-O events are not attributed to surface freshwater anomalies, and the underlying mechanism behind their occurrence remain unexplained. Using a simple dynamical model of sea ice and an overturning circulation, I show the existence of self-sustained relaxation oscillations in the overturning circulation. The insulating effect of sea ice is shown to paradoxically lead to a net loss of heat from the top layer of the polar ocean when sea ice retreats. Repeated heat loss results in a denser top layer and a destabilized water column, which triggers convection. The convective state pulls the system out of its preferred mode of circulation, setting up relaxation oscillations. The period of oscillations in this case is linked to the geometry of the ocean basin, if solar forcing is assumed to remain constant. If appropriate glacial freshwater forcing is applied to the model, a pattern of oscillation is produced that bears remarkable similarity to the observed fluctuations in North Atlantic climate between 50,000 and 30,000 years before present.; Comparison of NGRIP δ 18-O (proxy for near surface air temperature) between 50,000 and 30,000 years before present, showing Bond cycles (left) with the model output when forced with appropriate glacial freshwater forcing (right).

Tropical Cyclone Track Convergence Patterns, Arctic Sea-Ice Loss, and Superstorm Sandy: Is There a Connection?

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, C. C.; Francis, J. A.; Byrne, J. M.; Graham, J. R.; McDaniel, S. A.

2013-12-01

The potential for disruption to populations and food production due to global climate change will be catastrophic in some regions. Among the most vulnerable regions are those impacted by intensifying or changing tropical cyclones (TC). The objective of this research is to identify historical trends in TC tracks and regional circulation patterns that may forecast increasing risks due to TC intensification under global climate warming. We carry out spatial and temporal analysis of the 1979 - 2011 International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) historical hurricane database. The data were divided into several subsets to allow analysis of trend in: (i) early (JJAS) and late (OND) seasonal trends; and (ii) multi-year intervals (1979-95 and 1996-2011) to differentiate possible long term trends, if any. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) overlay analysis of the IBTrACS 64 knot hurricane wind radii data identified varying levels of historical tropical cyclone track convergence in the North Atlantic (NA) basin. Results of the track convergence analysis provide a first order analysis regarding changing potential population vulnerabilities due to changing seasonal or long-term tropical cyclone activity. During the summer of 2012, the amount of sea ice on the Arctic Ocean was diminished to about half of its normal extent and 25% of its normal volume relative to the nearly steady conditions that existed before the 1980s. This record loss continues an inexorable decline observed during recent decades. The dramatic increase in open water allows much more solar energy absorption at high latitude. Most of this extra heat returns to the atmosphere in autumn, contributing to the Arctic's rate of warming; exceeding that of mid-latitudes by a factor of two to three, a phenomenon called Arctic Amplification (AA). During October 2012, prior to the arrival of Superstorm Sandy along the eastern seaboard, AA was particularly strong, resulting in a substantial

Canadian snow and sea ice: historical trends and projections

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Mudryk, Lawrence R.; Derksen, Chris; Howell, Stephen; Laliberté, Fred; Thackeray, Chad; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Vionnet, Vincent; Kushner, Paul J.; Brown, Ross

2018-04-01

The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state of the art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. Here, we present an assessment from the CanSISE Network on trends in the historical record of snow cover (fraction, water equivalent) and sea ice (area, concentration, type, and thickness) across Canada. We also assess projected changes in snow cover and sea ice likely to occur by mid-century, as simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) suite of Earth system models. The historical datasets show that the fraction of Canadian land and marine areas covered by snow and ice is decreasing over time, with seasonal and regional variability in the trends consistent with regional differences in surface temperature trends. In particular, summer sea ice cover has decreased significantly across nearly all Canadian marine regions, and the rate of multi-year ice loss in the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Arctic Archipelago has nearly doubled over the last 8 years. The multi-model consensus over the 2020-2050 period shows reductions in fall and spring snow cover fraction and sea ice concentration of 5-10 % per decade (or 15-30 % in total), with similar reductions in winter sea ice concentration in both Hudson Bay and eastern Canadian waters. Peak pre-melt terrestrial snow water equivalent reductions of up to 10 % per decade (30 % in total) are projected across southern Canada.

Development and Implementation of a Model-Driven Envelope Protection System for In-Flight Ice Contamination

Science.gov (United States)

Gingras, David R.; Barnhart, Billy P.; Martos, Borja; Ratvasky, Thomas P.; Morelli, Eugene

2011-01-01

Fatal loss-of-control (LOC) accidents have been directly related to in-flight airframe icing. The prototype system presented in this paper directly addresses the need for real-time onboard envelope protection in icing conditions. The combinations of a-priori information and realtime aerodynamic estimations are shown to provide sufficient input for determining safe limits of the flight envelope during in-flight icing encounters. The Icing Contamination Envelope Protection (ICEPro) system has been designed and implemented to identify degradations in airplane performance and flying qualities resulting from ice contamination and provide safe flight-envelope cues to the pilot. Components of ICEPro are described and results from preliminary tests are presented.

Ice blasting device for washing pump

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirose, Yasuo.

1992-01-01

In a nuclear power plant, when the inside of a pump casing such as a recycling pump is scrubbed, since operator's safety should be ensured, it requires a large-scaled operation. Then, a cover is attached to a flange of the pump casing, in which a driving portion is disposed passing through the cover vertically movably and rotatably, an arm is disposed bendably to the top end of the arm, and a blast nozzle is disposed to the top end of the arm for jetting ice particles, with a camera being disposed to the blast nozzle. The inside of the casing can be scrubbed safely and rapidly by an ice blast method by remote operation while monitoring the state of scrubbing for the inside of the casing by a camera. Further, since the flange of the pump casing for installing the ice blast device is covered by the cover, mists are not scattered to the outside. In addition, mists may be sucked and removed by an exhaustion duct. (N.H.)

Skating mechanics of change-of-direction manoeuvres in ice hockey players.

Science.gov (United States)

Fortier, Antoine; Turcotte, René A; Pearsall, David J

2014-11-01

Ice hockey requires rapid transitions between skating trajectories to effectively navigate about the ice surface. Player performance relates in large part to effective change-of-direction manoeuvres, but little is known about how those skills are performed mechanically and the effect of equipment design on them. The purpose of this study was to observe the kinetics involved in those manoeuvres as well as to compare whether kinetic differences may result between two skate models of varying ankle mobility. Eight subjects with competitive ice hockey playing experience performed rapid lateral (90°) left and right change-of-direction manoeuvres. Kinetic data were collected using force strain gauge transducers on the blade holders of the skates. Significantly greater forces were applied by the outside skate (50-70% body weight, %BW) in comparison to the inside skate (12-24%BW, p Skate model and turn direction had no main effect, though significant mixed interactions between leg side (inside/outside) with skate model or turn direction (p skating change-of-direction tasks.

Characterization of an IceTop tank for the IceCube surface extension IceVeto

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kemp, Julian; Auffenberg, Jan; Hansmann, Bengt; Rongen, Martin; Stahlberg, Martin; Wiebusch, Christopher [III. Physikalisches Institut B, RWTH Aachen University (Germany); Collaboration: IceCube-Collaboration

2015-07-01

IceTop is an air-shower detector located at the South Pole on the surface above the IceCube detector. It consists of 81 detector stations with two Cherenkov tanks each. The tanks are filled with clear ice and instrumented with two photomultipliers. IceTop detects cosmic-ray induced air-showers above an energy threshold of ∝300 TeV. Muons and neutrinos from these air-showers are the main background for astrophysical neutrino searches with IceCube. The usage of IceTop to veto air-showers largely reduces this background in the field of view. To enlarge the field of view an extension of the surface detector, IceVeto, is planned. Therefore, we investigate the properties of an original IceTop tank as a laboratory reference for the development of new detection module designs. First results of these measurements are presented.

Radar attenuation in Europa's ice shell: obstacles and opportunities for constraining shell thickness and thermal structure

Science.gov (United States)

Kalousova, Klara; Schroeder, Dustin M.; Soderlund, Krista M.; Sotin, Christophe

2016-10-01

With its strikingly young surface and possibly recent endogenic activity, Europa is one of the most exciting bodies within our Solar System and a primary target for spacecraft exploration. Future missions to Europa are expected to carry ice penetrating radar instruments which are powerful tools to investigate the subsurface thermophysical structure of its ice shell.Several authors have addressed the 'penetration depth' of radar sounders at icy moons, however, the concept and calculation of a single value penetration depth is a potentially misleading simplification since it ignores the thermal and attenuation structure complexity of a realistic ice shell. Here we move beyond the concept of a single penetration depth by exploring the variation in two-way radar attenuation for a variety of potential thermal structures of Europa's ice shell as well as for a low loss and high loss temperature-dependent attenuation model. The possibility to detect brines is also investigated.Our results indicate that: (i) for all ice shell thicknesses investigated (5-30 km), a nominal satellite-borne radar sounder will penetrate between 15% and 100% of the total thickness, (ii) the maximum penetration depth strongly varies laterally with the deepest penetration possible through the cold downwellings, (iii) the direct detection of the ice/ocean interface might be possible for shells of up to 15 km if the radar signal travels through the cold downwelling, (iv) even if the ice/ocean interface is not detected, the penetration through most of the shell could constrain the deep shell structure through the loss of signal, and (v) for all plausible ice shells the two-way attenuation to the eutectic point is ≤30 dB which shows a robust potential for longitudinal investigation of the ice shell's shallow structure.Part of this work has been performed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract to NASA. K.K. acknowledges support by the Grant Agency of the

Visual-stratigraphic dating of the GISP2 ice core: Basis, reproducibility, and application

Science.gov (United States)

Alley, R. B.; Shuman, C. A.; Meese, D. A.; Gow, A. J.; Taylor, K. C.; Cuffey, K. M.; Fitzpatrick, J. J.; Grootes, P. M.; Zielinski, G. A.; Ram, M.; Spinelli, G.; Elder, B.

1997-11-01

Annual layers are visible in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice core from central Greenland, allowing rapid dating of the core. Changes in bubble and grain structure caused by near-surface, primarily summertime formation of hoar complexes provide the main visible annual marker in the Holocene, and changes in "cloudiness" of the ice correlated with dustiness mark Wisconsinan annual cycles; both markers are evident and have been intercalibrated in early Holocene ice. Layer counts are reproducible between different workers and for one worker at different times, with 1% error over century-length times in the Holocene. Reproducibility is typically 5% in Wisconsinan ice-age ice and decreases with increasing age and depth. Cumulative ages from visible stratigraphy are not significantly different from independent ages of prominent events for ice older than the historical record and younger than approximately 50,000 years. Visible observations are not greatly degraded by "brittle ice" or many other core-quality problems, allowing construction of long, consistently sampled time series. High accuracy requires careful study of the core by dedicated observers.

Measuring Two Decades of Ice Mass Loss using GRACE and SLR

Science.gov (United States)

Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.

2016-12-01

We use Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) to extend the time series of ice mass change back in time to 1994. The SLR series is of far lesser spatial resolution than GRACE, so we apply a constrained inversion technique to better localize the signal. We approximate the likely errors due to SLR's measurement errors combined with the inversion errors from using a low-resolution series, then estimate the interannual mass change over Greenland and Antarctica.

Influence of temperature fluctuations on equilibrium ice sheet volume

Science.gov (United States)

Bøgeholm Mikkelsen, Troels; Grinsted, Aslak; Ditlevsen, Peter

2018-01-01

Forecasting the future sea level relies on accurate modeling of the response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to changing temperatures. The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has a nonlinear response to warming. Cold and warm anomalies of equal size do not cancel out and it is therefore important to consider the effect of interannual fluctuations in temperature. We find that the steady-state volume of an ice sheet is biased toward larger size if interannual temperature fluctuations are not taken into account in numerical modeling of the ice sheet. We illustrate this in a simple ice sheet model and find that the equilibrium ice volume is approximately 1 m SLE (meters sea level equivalent) smaller when the simple model is forced with fluctuating temperatures as opposed to a stable climate. It is therefore important to consider the effect of interannual temperature fluctuations when designing long experiments such as paleo-spin-ups. We show how the magnitude of the potential bias can be quantified statistically. For recent simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet, we estimate the bias to be 30 Gt yr-1 (24-59 Gt yr-1, 95 % credibility) for a warming of 3 °C above preindustrial values, or 13 % (10-25, 95 % credibility) of the present-day rate of ice loss. Models of the Greenland Ice Sheet show a collapse threshold beyond which the ice sheet becomes unsustainable. The proximity of the threshold will be underestimated if temperature fluctuations are not taken into account. We estimate the bias to be 0.12 °C (0.10-0.18 °C, 95 % credibility) for a recent estimate of the threshold. In light of our findings it is important to gauge the extent to which this increased variability will influence the mass balance of the ice sheets.

Rising methane emissions from northern wetlands associated with sea ice decline

Science.gov (United States)

Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Zhang, Wenxin; Zhu, Xudong; van Huissteden, Jacobus; Hayes, Daniel J.; Zhuang, Qianlai; Christensen, Torben R.; McGuire, A. David

2015-01-01

The Arctic is rapidly transitioning toward a seasonal sea ice-free state, perhaps one of the most apparent examples of climate change in the world. This dramatic change has numerous consequences, including a large increase in air temperatures, which in turn may affect terrestrial methane emissions. Nonetheless, terrestrial and marine environments are seldom jointly analyzed. By comparing satellite observations of Arctic sea ice concentrations to methane emissions simulated by three process-based biogeochemical models, this study shows that rising wetland methane emissions are associated with sea ice retreat. Our analyses indicate that simulated high-latitude emissions for 2005–2010 were, on average, 1.7 Tg CH4 yr−1 higher compared to 1981–1990 due to a sea ice-induced, autumn-focused, warming. Since these results suggest a continued rise in methane emissions with future sea ice decline, observation programs need to include measurements during the autumn to further investigate the impact of this spatial connection on terrestrial methane emissions.

Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines

Science.gov (United States)

Regehr, Eric V.; Laidre, Kristin L.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Amstrup, Steven C.; Atwood, Todd C.; Lunn, Nicholas J.; Obbard, Martyn E.; Stern, Harry; Thiemann, Gregory W.; Wiig, Øystein

2016-01-01

Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is the primary threat to polar bears throughout their range. We evaluated the potential response of polar bears to sea-ice declines by (i) calculating generation length (GL) for the species, which determines the timeframe for conservation assessments; (ii) developing a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat; and (iii) using statistical models and computer simulation to project changes in the global population under three approaches relating polar bear abundance to sea ice. Mean GL was 11.5 years. Ice-covered days declined in all subpopulation areas during 1979–2014 (median −1.26 days year−1). The estimated probabilities that reductions in the mean global population size of polar bears will be greater than 30%, 50% and 80% over three generations (35–41 years) were 0.71 (range 0.20–0.95), 0.07 (range 0–0.35) and less than 0.01 (range 0–0.02), respectively. According to IUCN Red List reduction thresholds, which provide a common measure of extinction risk across taxa, these results are consistent with listing the species as vulnerable. Our findings support the potential for large declines in polar bear numbers owing to sea-ice loss, and highlight near-term uncertainty in statistical projections as well as the sensitivity of projections to different plausible assumptions.

Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines.

Science.gov (United States)

Regehr, Eric V; Laidre, Kristin L; Akçakaya, H Resit; Amstrup, Steven C; Atwood, Todd C; Lunn, Nicholas J; Obbard, Martyn; Stern, Harry; Thiemann, Gregory W; Wiig, Øystein

2016-12-01

Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is the primary threat to polar bears throughout their range. We evaluated the potential response of polar bears to sea-ice declines by (i) calculating generation length (GL) for the species, which determines the timeframe for conservation assessments; (ii) developing a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat; and (iii) using statistical models and computer simulation to project changes in the global population under three approaches relating polar bear abundance to sea ice. Mean GL was 11.5 years. Ice-covered days declined in all subpopulation areas during 1979-2014 (median -1.26 days year -1 ). The estimated probabilities that reductions in the mean global population size of polar bears will be greater than 30%, 50% and 80% over three generations (35-41 years) were 0.71 (range 0.20-0.95), 0.07 (range 0-0.35) and less than 0.01 (range 0-0.02), respectively. According to IUCN Red List reduction thresholds, which provide a common measure of extinction risk across taxa, these results are consistent with listing the species as vulnerable. Our findings support the potential for large declines in polar bear numbers owing to sea-ice loss, and highlight near-term uncertainty in statistical projections as well as the sensitivity of projections to different plausible assumptions. © 2016 The Authors.

The effect of signal leakage and glacial isostatic rebound on GRACE-derived ice mass changes in Iceland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Louise Sandberg; Jarosch, Alexander H.; Adalgeirsdottir, Gudfinna

2017-01-01

Monthly gravity field models from the GRACE satellite mission are widely used to determine ice mass changes of large ice sheets as well as smaller glaciers and ice caps. Here, we investigate in detail the ice mass changes of the Icelandic ice caps as derived from GRACE data. The small size...... of the Icelandic ice caps, their location close to other rapidly changing ice covered areas and the low viscosity of the mantle below Iceland make this especially challenging. The mass balance of the ice caps is well constrained by field mass balance measurements, making this area ideal for such investigations. We...... the Little Ice Age (∼ 1890 AD). To minimize the signal that leaks towards Iceland from Greenland, we employ an independent mass change estimate of the Greenland Ice Sheet derived from satellite laser altimetry. We also estimate the effect of post Little Ice Age glacial isostatic adjustment, from knowledge...

Polynyas and Ice Production Evolution in the Ross Sea (PIPERS)

Science.gov (United States)

Ackley, S. F.

2017-12-01

One focus of the PIPERS cruise into the Ross Sea ice cover during April-June 2017 was the Terra Nova Bay (TNB) polynya where joint measurements of air-ice-ocean wave interaction were conducted over twelve days. In Terra Nova Bay, measurements were made in three katabatic wind events each with sustained winds over 35 ms-1 and air temperatures below -15C. Near shore, intense wave fields with wave amplitudes of over 2m and 7-9 sec periods built and large amounts of frazil ice crystals grew. The frazil ice gathered initially into short and narrow plumes that eventually were added laterally to create longer and wider streaks or bands. Breaking waves within these wider streaks were dampened which appeared to enhance the development of pancake ice. Eventually, the open water areas between the streaks sealed off, developing a complete ice cover of 100 percent concentration (80-90 percent pancakes, 20-10 percent frazil) over a wide front (30km). The pancakes continued to grow in diameter and thickness as waves alternately contracted and expanded the ice cover, with the thicker larger floes further diminishing the wave field and lateral motion between pancakes until the initial pancake ice growth ceased. The equilibrium thickness of the ice was 20-30cm in the pancake ice. While the waves had died off however, katabatic wind velocities were sustained and resulted in a wide area of concentrated, rafted, pancake ice that was rapidly advected downstream until the end of the katabatic event. High resolution TerraSar-X radar satellite imagery showed the length of the ice area produced in one single event extended over 300km or ten times the length of the open water area during one polynya event. The TNB polynya is therefore an "ice factory" where frazil ice is manufactured into pancake ice floes that are then pushed out of the assembly area and advected, rafted (and occasionally piled up into "dragon skin" ice), until the katabatic wind dies off at the coastal source.

Measurements of bubble size spectra within leads in the Arctic summer pack ice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. J. Norris

2011-02-01

Full Text Available The first measurements of bubble size spectra within the near-surface waters of open leads in the central Arctic pack ice were obtained during the Arctic Summer Cloud-Ocean Study (ASCOS in August 2008 at 87–87.6° N, 1–11° W. A significant number of small bubbles (30–100 μm diameter were present, with concentration decreasing rapidly with size from 100–560 μm; no bubbles larger than 560 μm were observed. The bubbles were present both during periods of low wind speed (U<6 m s⁻¹ and when ice covered the surface of the lead. The low wind and short open-water fetch precludes production of bubbles by wave breaking suggesting that the bubbles are generated by processes below the surface. When the surface water was open to the atmosphere bubble concentrations increased with increasing heat loss to the atmosphere. The presence of substantial numbers of bubbles is significant because the bursting of bubbles at the surface provides a mechanism for the generation of aerosol and the ejection of biological material from the ocean into the atmosphere. Such a transfer has previously been proposed as a potential climate feedback linking marine biology and Arctic cloud properties.

Aeolian stratigraphy describes ice-age paleoenvironments in unglaciated Arctic Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Gaglioti, Benjamin V.; Mann, Daniel H.; Groves, Pamela; Kunz, Michael L.; Farquharson, Louise M.; Reanier, Richard E.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Wooller, Matthew J.

2018-02-01

Terrestrial paleoenvironmental records with high dating resolution extending into the last ice age are rare from the western Arctic. Such records can test the synchronicity and extent of ice-age climatic events and define how Arctic landscapes respond to rapid climate changes. Here we describe the stratigraphy and sedimentology of a yedoma deposit in Arctic Alaska (the Carter Section) dating to between 37,000 and 9000 calibrated radiocarbon years BP (37-9 ka) and containing detailed records of loess and sand-sheet sedimentation, soil development, carbon storage, and permafrost dynamics. Alternation between sand-sheet and loess deposition provides a proxy for the extent and activity of the Ikpikpuk Sand Sea (ISS), a large dune field located immediately upwind. Warm, moist interstadial times (ca. 37, 36.3-32.5, and 15-13 ka) triggered floodplain aggradation, permafrost thaw, reduced loess deposition, increased vegetation cover, and rapid soil development accompanied by enhanced carbon storage. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 28-18 ka), rapid loess deposition took place on a landscape where vegetation was sparse and non-woody. The most intense aeolian activity occurred after the LGM between ca. 18 and 15 ka when sand sheets fringing the ISS expanded over the site, possibly in response to increasingly droughty conditions as summers warmed and active layers deepened. With the exception of this lagged LGM response, the record of aeolian activity at the Carter Section correlates with other paleoenvironmental records from unglaciated Siberia and Alaska. Overall, rapid shifts in geomorphology, soils, vegetation, and permafrost portray an ice-age landscape where, in contrast to the Holocene, environmental change was chronic and dominated by aeolian processes.

An estimate of the glacier ice volume in the Swiss Alps

Science.gov (United States)

Farinotti, Daniel; Huss, Matthias; Bauder, Andreas; Funk, Martin

2009-08-01

Changes in glacier volume are important for questions linked to sea-level rise, water resource management, and tourism industry. With the ongoing climate warming, the retreat of mountain glaciers is a major concern. Predictions of glacier changes, necessarily need the present ice volume as initial condition, and for transient modelling, the ice thickness distribution has to be known. In this paper, a method based on mass conservation and principles of ice flow dynamics is applied to 62 glaciers located in the Swiss Alps for estimating their ice thickness distribution. All available direct ice thickness measurements are integrated. The ice volumes are referenced to the year 1999 by means of a mass balance time series. The results are used to calibrate a volume-area scaling relation, and the coefficients obtained show good agreement with values reported in the literature. We estimate the total ice volume present in the Swiss Alps in the year 1999 to be 74 ± 9 km 3. About 12% of this volume was lost between 1999 and 2008, whereas the extraordinarily warm summer 2003 caused a volume loss of about 3.5%.