WorldWideScience

Sample records for rapid global spread

  1. Facing Two Rapidly Spreading Internet Worms

    CERN Multimedia

    IT Department

    2009-01-01

    The Internet is currently facing a growing number of computer infections due to two rapidly spreading worms. The "Conficker" and "Downadup" worms have infected an estimated 1.1 million PCs in a 24-hour period, bringing the total number of infected computers to 3.5 million [1]. Via a single USB stick, these worms were also responsible for the infection of about 40 laptops at the last EGEE conference in Istanbul. In order to reduce the impact of these worms on CERN Windows computers, the Computer Security Team has suggested several preventive measures described here. Disabling the Windows AutoRun and AutoPlay Features The Computer Security Team and the IT/IS group have decided to disable the "AutoRun" and "AutoPlay" functionality on all centrally-managed Windows computers at CERN. When inserting CDs, DVDs or USB sticks into a PC, "AutoRun" and "AutoPlay" are responsible for automatically playing music or films stored on these media, or ...

  2. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G; Lepej, Snjezana J; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie-Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

    2016-12-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti to United States. However, the pattern of the subsequent spread still remains poorly understood. Here we analyze a large dataset of globally representative HIV-1 subtype B strains to map their spread around the world over the last 50years and describe significant spread patterns. We show that subtype B travelled from North America to Western Europe in different occasions, while Central/Eastern Europe remained isolated for the most part of the early epidemic. Looking with more detail in European countries we see that the United Kingdom, France and Switzerland exchanged viral isolates with non-European countries than with European ones. The observed pattern is likely to mirror geopolitical landmarks in the post-World War II era, namely the rise and the fall of the Iron Curtain and the European colonialism. In conclusion, HIV-1 spread through specific migration routes which are consistent with geopolitical factors that affected human activities during the last 50years, such as migration, tourism and trade. Our findings support the argument that epidemic control policies should be global and incorporate political and socioeconomic factors. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Global warming and spread of infectious diseases; Globale Erwaermung und Ausbreitung von Infektionskrankheiten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebert, B.; Fleischer, B. [Bernhard-Nocht-Institut fuer Tropenmedizin (BNI), Hamburg (Germany)

    2005-01-15

    At the end of the twentieth century, tropical infectious diseases increased despite earlier successes of eradication campaigns. As a global warming of 1.4-5.8 C is anticipated to occur by 2100, mainly the vector-borne tropical diseases that are particularly sensitive to climate are expected to spread. Although biological reasons seemingly support this hypothesis, ecological and socio-economic factors have in the past proven to be stronger driving forces for the spread of infectious diseases than climate. (orig.)

  4. The rapid spread of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Robert F; D'Souza, Alaric W; Dantas, Gautam

    2016-11-01

    Carbapenems, our one-time silver bullet for multidrug resistant bacterial infections, are now threatened by widespread dissemination of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE). Successful expansion of Enterobacteriaceae clonal groups and frequent horizontal gene transfer of carbapenemase expressing plasmids are causing increasing carbapenem resistance. Recent advances in genetic and phenotypic detection facilitate global surveillance of CRE diversity and prevalence. In particular, whole genome sequencing enabled efficient tracking, annotation, and study of genetic elements colocalized with carbapenemase genes on chromosomes and on plasmids. Improved characterization helps detail the co-occurrence of other antibiotic resistance genes in CRE isolates and helps identify pan-drug resistance mechanisms. The novel β-lactamase inhibitor, avibactam, combined with ceftazidime or aztreonam, is a promising CRE treatment compared to current colistin or tigecycline regimens. To halt increasing CRE-associated morbidity and mortality, we must continue quality, cooperative monitoring and urgently investigate novel treatments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. The rapid spread of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Robert F.; D’Souza, Alaric W.; Dantas, Gautam

    2016-01-01

    Carbapenems, our one-time silver bullet for multidrug resistant bacterial infections, are now threatened by widespread dissemination of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE). Successful expansion of Enterobacteriaceae clonal groups and frequent horizontal gene transfer of carbapenemase expressing plasmids are causing increasing carbapenem resistance. Recent advances in genetic and phenotypic detection facilitate global surveillance of CRE diversity and prevalence. In particular, whole genome sequencing enabled efficient tracking, annotation, and study of genetic elements colocalized with carbapenemase genes on chromosomes and on plasmids. Improved characterization helps detail the co-occurrence of other antibiotic resistance genes in CRE isolates and helps identify pan-drug resistance mechanisms. The novel β-lactamase inhibitor, avibactam, combined with ceftazidime or aztreonam, is a promising CRE treatment compared to current colistin or tigecycline regimens. To halt increasing CRE-associated morbidity and mortality, we must continue quality, cooperative monitoring and urgently investigate novel treatments. PMID:27912842

  6. Rapid evolution and spread of carbapenemases among Enterobacteriaceae in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantón, R; Akóva, M; Carmeli, Y; Giske, C G; Glupczynski, Y; Gniadkowski, M; Livermore, D M; Miriagou, V; Naas, T; Rossolini, G M; Samuelsen, Ø; Seifert, H; Woodford, N; Nordmann, P

    2012-05-01

    Plasmid-acquired carbapenemases in Enterobacteriaceae, which were first discovered in Europe in the 1990s, are now increasingly being identified at an alarming rate. Although their hydrolysis spectrum may vary, they hydrolyse most β-lactams, including carbapenems. They are mostly of the KPC, VIM, NDM and OXA-48 types. Their prevalence in Europe as reported in 2011 varies significantly from high (Greece and Italy) to low (Nordic countries). The types of carbapenemase vary among countries, partially depending on the cultural/population exchange relationship between the European countries and the possible reservoirs of each carbapenemase. Carbapenemase producers are mainly identified among Klebsiella pneumoniae and Escherichia coli, and still mostly in hospital settings and rarely in the community. Although important nosocomial outbreaks with carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae have been extensively reported, many new cases are still related to importation from a foreign country. Rapid identification of colonized or infected patients and screening of carriers is possible, and will probably be effective for prevention of a scenario of endemicity, as now reported for extended-spectrum β-lactamase (mainly CTX-M) producers in all European countries. © 2012 The Authors. Clinical Microbiology and Infection © 2012 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.

  7. Role for migratory wild birds in the global spread of avian influenza H5N8

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,; Ip, Hon S.

    2016-01-01

    Avian influenza viruses affect both poultry production and public health. A subtype H5N8 (clade 2.3.4.4) virus, following an outbreak in poultry in South Korea in January 2014, rapidly spread worldwide in 2014–2015. Our analysis of H5N8 viral sequences, epidemiological investigations, waterfowl migration, and poultry trade showed that long-distance migratory birds can play a major role in the global spread of avian influenza viruses. Further, we found that the hemagglutinin of clade 2.3.4.4 virus was remarkably promiscuous, creating reassortants with multiple neuraminidase subtypes. Improving our understanding of the circumpolar circulation of avian influenza viruses in migratory waterfowl will help to provide early warning of threats from avian influenza to poultry, and potentially human, health.

  8. Forced Spreading of Aqueous Solutions on Zwitterionic Sulfobetaine Surfaces for Rapid Evaporation and Solute Separation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Cyuan-Jhang; Singh, Vickramjeet; Sheng, Yu-Jane; Tsao, Heng-Kwong

    2017-08-01

    Solute separation of aqueous mixtures is mainly dominated by water vaporization. The evaporation rate of an aqueous drop grows with increasing the liquid-gas interfacial area. The spontaneous spreading behavior of a water droplet on a total wetting surface provides huge liquid-gas interfacial area per unit volume; however, it is halted by the self-pinning phenomenon upon addition of nonvolatile solutes. In this work, it is shown that the solute-induced self-pinning can be overcome by gravity, leading to anisotropic spreading much faster than isotropic spreading. The evaporation rate of anisotropic spreading on a zwitterionic sulfobetaine surface is 25 times larger as that on a poly(methyl methacrylate) surface. Dramatic enhancement of evaporation is demonstrated by simultaneous formation of fog atop liquid film. During anisotropic spreading, the solutes are quickly precipitated out within 30 s, showing the rapid solute-water separation. After repeated spreading process for the dye-containing solution, the mean concentration of the collection is doubled, revealing the concentration efficiency as high as 100%. Gravity-enhanced spreading on total wetting surfaces at room temperature is easy to scale-up with less energy consumption, and thus it has great potentials for the applications of solute separation and concentration.

  9. Global Landslides on Rapidly Spinning Spheroids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheeres, Daniel J.; Sanchez, P.

    2013-10-01

    The angle of repose and conditions for global landslides on the surfaces of small, rapidly spinning, spheroidal asteroids are studied. Applying techniques of soil mechanics, we develop a theory for, and examples of, how regolith will fail and flow in this microgravity environment. Our motivation is to develop an understanding of the "top-shaped" class of asteroids based on analytical soil mechanics. Our analysis transforms the entire asteroid surface into a local frame where we can model it as a conventional granular pile with a surface slope, acceleration and height variations as a function of the body's spin rate, shape and density. A general finding is that the lowest point on a rapidly spinning spheroid is at the equator with the effective height of surface material monotonically increasing towards the polar regions, where the height can be larger than the physical radius of the body. We study the failure conditions of both cohesionless and cohesive regolith, and develop specific predictions of the surface profile as a function of the regolith angle of friction and the maximum spin rate experienced by the body. The theory also provides simple guidelines on what the shape may look like, although we do not analyze gravitationally self-consistent evolution of the body shape. The theory is tested with soft-sphere discrete element method granular mechanics simulations to better understand the dynamical aspects of global asteroid landslides. We find significant differences between failure conditions for cohesive and cohesionless regolith. In the case of cohesive regolith, we show that extremely small values of strength (much less than that found in lunar regolith) can stabilize a surface even at very rapid spin rates. Cohesionless surfaces, as expected, fail whenever their surface slopes exceed the angle of friction. Based on our analysis we propose that global landslides and the flow of material towards the equator on spheroidal bodies are precipitated by exogenous

  10. An empirical model of global spread-f occurrence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singleton, D.G.

    1974-09-01

    A method of combining models of ionospheric F-layer peak electron density and irregularity incremental electron density into a model of the occurrence probability of the frequency spreading component of spread-F is presented. The predictions of the model are compared with spread-F occurrence data obtained under sunspot maximum conditions. Good agreement is obtained for latitudes less than 70 0 geomagnetic. At higher latitudes, the inclusion of a 'blackout factor' in the model allows it to accurately represent the data and, in so doing, resolves an apparent discrepancy in the occurrence statistics at high latitudes. The blackout factor is ascribed to the effect of polar blackout on the spread-F statistics and/or the lack of a definitve incremental electron density model for irregularities at polar latitudes. Ways of isolating these effects and assessing their relative importance in the blackout factor are discussed. The model, besides providing estimates of spread-F occurrence on a worldwide basis, which will be of value in the engineering of HF and VHF communications, also furnishes a means of further checking the irregularity incremental electron density model on which it is based. (author)

  11. Rapid deployable global sensing hazard alert system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordaro, Joseph V; Tibrea, Steven L; Shull, Davis J; Coleman, Jerry T; Shuler, James M

    2015-04-28

    A rapid deployable global sensing hazard alert system and associated methods of operation are provided. An exemplary system includes a central command, a wireless backhaul network, and a remote monitoring unit. The remote monitoring unit can include a positioning system configured to determine a position of the remote monitoring unit based on one or more signals received from one or more satellites located in Low Earth Orbit. The wireless backhaul network can provide bidirectional communication capability independent of cellular telecommunication networks and the Internet. An exemplary method includes instructing at least one of a plurality of remote monitoring units to provide an alert based at least in part on a location of a hazard and a plurality of positions respectively associated with the plurality of remote monitoring units.

  12. A passerine spreads its tail to facilitate a rapid recovery of its body posture during hovering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jian-Yuan; Ting, Shang-Chieh; Chang, Yu-Hung; Yang, Jing-Tang

    2012-07-07

    We demonstrate experimentally that a passerine exploits tail spreading to intercept the downward flow induced by its wings to facilitate the recovery of its posture. The periodic spreading of its tail by the White-eye bird exhibits a phase correlation with both wingstroke motion and body oscillation during hovering flight. During a downstroke, a White-eye's body undergoes a remarkable pitch-down motion, with the tail undergoing an upward swing. This pitch-down motion becomes appropriately suppressed at the end of the downstroke; the bird's body posture then recovers gradually to its original status. Employing digital particle-image velocimetry, we show that the strong downward flow induced by downstroking the wings serves as an external jet flow impinging upon the tail, providing a depressing force on the tail to counteract the pitch-down motion of the bird's body. Spreading of the tail enhances a rapid recovery of the body posture because increased forces are experienced. The maximum force experienced by a spread tail is approximately 2.6 times that of a non-spread tail.

  13. Propagation of capillary waves and ejection of small droplets in rapid droplet spreading

    KAUST Repository

    Ding, Hang; Li, Erqiang; Zhang, F. H.; Sui, Yi; Spelt, Peter D M; Thoroddsen, Sigurdur T

    2012-01-01

    A new regime of droplet ejection following the slow deposition of drops onto a near-complete wetting solid substrate is identified in experiments and direct numerical simulations; a coalescence cascade subsequent to pinch-off is also observed for the first time. Results of numerical simulations indicate that the propagation of capillary waves that lead to pinch-off is closely related to the self-similar behaviour observed in the inviscid recoil of droplets, and that motions of the crests and troughs of capillary waves along the interface do not depend on the wettability and surface tension (or Ohnesorge number). The simulations also show that a self-similar theory for universal pinch-off can be used for the time evolution of the pinching neck. However, although good agreement is also found with the double-cone shape of the pinching neck for droplet ejection in drop deposition on a pool of the same liquid, substantial deviations are observed in such a comparison for droplet ejection in rapid drop spreading (including the newly identified regime). This deviation is shown to result from interference by the solid substrate, a rapid downwards acceleration of the top of the drop surface and the rapid spreading process. The experiments also confirm non-monotonic spreading behaviour observed previously only in numerical simulations, and suggest substantial inertial effects on the relation between an apparent contact angle and the dimensionless contact-line speed. © 2012 Cambridge University Press.

  14. Propagation of capillary waves and ejection of small droplets in rapid droplet spreading

    KAUST Repository

    Ding, Hang

    2012-03-12

    A new regime of droplet ejection following the slow deposition of drops onto a near-complete wetting solid substrate is identified in experiments and direct numerical simulations; a coalescence cascade subsequent to pinch-off is also observed for the first time. Results of numerical simulations indicate that the propagation of capillary waves that lead to pinch-off is closely related to the self-similar behaviour observed in the inviscid recoil of droplets, and that motions of the crests and troughs of capillary waves along the interface do not depend on the wettability and surface tension (or Ohnesorge number). The simulations also show that a self-similar theory for universal pinch-off can be used for the time evolution of the pinching neck. However, although good agreement is also found with the double-cone shape of the pinching neck for droplet ejection in drop deposition on a pool of the same liquid, substantial deviations are observed in such a comparison for droplet ejection in rapid drop spreading (including the newly identified regime). This deviation is shown to result from interference by the solid substrate, a rapid downwards acceleration of the top of the drop surface and the rapid spreading process. The experiments also confirm non-monotonic spreading behaviour observed previously only in numerical simulations, and suggest substantial inertial effects on the relation between an apparent contact angle and the dimensionless contact-line speed. © 2012 Cambridge University Press.

  15. Impact of the topology of global macroeconomic network on the spreading of economic crises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyu-Min; Yang, Jae-Suk; Kim, Gunn; Lee, Jaesung; Goh, Kwang-Il; Kim, In-mook

    2011-03-31

    Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of the global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more "globalized" random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing vulnerability of the global economic system to extreme crises.

  16. Rapid spread of complex change: a case study in inpatient palliative care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filipski Marta I

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Based on positive findings from a randomized controlled trial, Kaiser Permanente's national executive leadership group set an expectation that all Kaiser Permanente and partner hospitals would implement a consultative model of interdisciplinary, inpatient-based palliative care (IPC. Within one year, the number of IPC consultations program-wide increased almost tenfold from baseline, and the number of teams nearly doubled. We report here results from a qualitative evaluation of the IPC initiative after a year of implementation; our purpose was to understand factors supporting or impeding the rapid and consistent spread of a complex program. Methods Quality improvement study using a case study design and qualitative analysis of in-depth semi-structured interviews with 36 national, regional, and local leaders. Results Compelling evidence of impacts on patient satisfaction and quality of care generated 'pull' among adopters, expressed as a remarkably high degree of conviction about the value of the model. Broad leadership agreement gave rise to sponsorship and support that permeated the organization. A robust social network promoted knowledge exchange and built on an existing network with a strong interest in palliative care. Resource constraints, pre-existing programs of a different model, and ambiguous accountability for implementation impeded spread. Conclusions A complex, hospital-based, interdisciplinary intervention in a large health care organization spread rapidly due to a synergy between organizational 'push' strategies and grassroots-level pull. The combination of push and pull may be especially important when the organizational context or the practice to be spread is complex.

  17. The effects of global awareness on the spreading of epidemics in multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zang, Haijuan

    2018-02-01

    It is increasingly recognized that understanding the complex interplay patterns between epidemic spreading and human behavioral is a key component of successful infection control efforts. In particular, individuals can obtain the information about epidemics and respond by altering their behaviors, which can affect the spreading dynamics as well. Besides, because the existence of herd-like behaviors, individuals are very easy to be influenced by the global awareness information. Here, in this paper, we propose a global awareness controlled spreading model (GACS) to explore the interplay between the coupled dynamical processes. Using the global microscopic Markov chain approach, we obtain the analytical results for the epidemic thresholds, which shows a high accuracy by comparison with lots of Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, considering other classical models used to describe the coupled dynamical processes, including the local awareness controlled contagion spreading (LACS) model, Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible-Unaware-Aware-Unaware (SIS-UAU) model and the single layer occasion, we make a detailed comparisons between the GACS with them. Although the comparisons and results depend on the parameters each model has, the GACS model always shows a strong restrain effects on epidemic spreading process. Our results give us a better understanding of the coupled dynamical processes and highlights the importance of considering the spreading of global awareness in the control of epidemics.

  18. Epidemic spreading and global stability of an SIS model with an infective vector on complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Huiyan; Fu, Xinchu

    2015-10-01

    In this paper, we present a new SIS model with delay on scale-free networks. The model is suitable to describe some epidemics which are not only transmitted by a vector but also spread between individuals by direct contacts. In view of the biological relevance and real spreading process, we introduce a delay to denote average incubation period of disease in a vector. By mathematical analysis, we obtain the epidemic threshold and prove the global stability of equilibria. The simulation shows the delay will effect the epidemic spreading. Finally, we investigate and compare two major immunization strategies, uniform immunization and targeted immunization.

  19. Global stability of a two-mediums rumor spreading model with media coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Liang'an; Wang, Li; Song, Guoxiang

    2017-09-01

    Rumor spreading is a typical form of social communication and plays a significant role in social life, and media coverage has a great influence on the spread of rumor. In this paper, we present a new model with two media coverage to investigate the impact of the different mediums on rumor spreading. Then, we calculate the equilibria of the model and construct the reproduction number ℜ0. And we prove the global asymptotic stability of equilibria by using Lyapunov functions. Finally, we can conclude that the transition rate of the ignorants between two mediums has a direct effect on the scale of spreaders, and different media coverage has significant effects on the dynamics behaviors of rumor spreading.

  20. Evolutionary history and global spread of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing lineage.

    OpenAIRE

    Merker Matthias; Blin Camille; Mona Stefano; Duforet-Frebourg Nicolas; Lecher Sophie; Willery Eve; Blum Michael G B; Rüsch-Gerdes Sabine; Mokrousov Igor; Aleksic Eman; Allix-Béguec Caroline; Antierens Annick; Augustynowicz-Kopec Ewa; Ballif Marie; Barletta Francesca

    2015-01-01

    International audience; Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains of the Beijing lineage are globally distributed and are associated with the massive spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis in Eurasia. Here we reconstructed the biogeographical structure and evolutionary history of this lineage by genetic analysis of 4,987 isolates from 99 countries and whole-genome sequencing of 110 representative isolates. We show that this lineage initially originated in the Far East, from where it radiat...

  1. Rapid spread of suicide by charcoal burning from 2007 to 2011 in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ah-Rong; Ahn, Myung Hee; Lee, Tae Yeop; Park, Subin; Hong, Jin Pyo

    2014-11-30

    Despite rapid increase of suicide by charcoal burning within 5 years, little is known about the characteristics of charcoal burning suicide in Korea. This study aimed to examine the trends and risk factors in the spread of suicide using this method. We identified an association between media reporting of suicide by charcoal burning and its incidence. Data on suicide from 2007 to 2011 were obtained from the Korean National Statistical Office. Cross-correlation analysis was used. Increasing incidence of suicide by charcoal burning was correlated with higher education levels, male sex, and the latter half of the year. Victims of charcoal burning suicide were more likely to be young, male, single, highly educated, professional, urban-based, and to die between October and December. Internet reports of suicide via charcoal burning tended to precede the increased incidence of suicide using this method, but only during the early period of the suicide epidemic. Our findings suggest that one episode of heavy media coverage of a novel method, such as charcoal burning, is sufficient to increase the prevalence of suicide by that method even after media coverage decreases. These findings are expected to contribute to the prevention of increasing rates of suicide by charcoal burning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Evolutionary history and global spread of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing lineage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merker, Matthias; Blin, Camille; Mona, Stefano; Duforet-Frebourg, Nicolas; Lecher, Sophie; Willery, Eve; Blum, Michael G B; Rüsch-Gerdes, Sabine; Mokrousov, Igor; Aleksic, Eman; Allix-Béguec, Caroline; Antierens, Annick; Augustynowicz-Kopeć, Ewa; Ballif, Marie; Barletta, Francesca; Beck, Hans Peter; Barry, Clifton E; Bonnet, Maryline; Borroni, Emanuele; Campos-Herrero, Isolina; Cirillo, Daniela; Cox, Helen; Crowe, Suzanne; Crudu, Valeriu; Diel, Roland; Drobniewski, Francis; Fauville-Dufaux, Maryse; Gagneux, Sébastien; Ghebremichael, Solomon; Hanekom, Madeleine; Hoffner, Sven; Jiao, Wei-wei; Kalon, Stobdan; Kohl, Thomas A; Kontsevaya, Irina; Lillebæk, Troels; Maeda, Shinji; Nikolayevskyy, Vladyslav; Rasmussen, Michael; Rastogi, Nalin; Samper, Sofia; Sanchez-Padilla, Elisabeth; Savic, Branislava; Shamputa, Isdore Chola; Shen, Adong; Sng, Li-Hwei; Stakenas, Petras; Toit, Kadri; Varaine, Francis; Vukovic, Dragana; Wahl, Céline; Warren, Robin; Supply, Philip; Niemann, Stefan; Wirth, Thierry

    2015-03-01

    Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains of the Beijing lineage are globally distributed and are associated with the massive spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis in Eurasia. Here we reconstructed the biogeographical structure and evolutionary history of this lineage by genetic analysis of 4,987 isolates from 99 countries and whole-genome sequencing of 110 representative isolates. We show that this lineage initially originated in the Far East, from where it radiated worldwide in several waves. We detected successive increases in population size for this pathogen over the last 200 years, practically coinciding with the Industrial Revolution, the First World War and HIV epidemics. Two MDR clones of this lineage started to spread throughout central Asia and Russia concomitantly with the collapse of the public health system in the former Soviet Union. Mutations identified in genes putatively under positive selection and associated with virulence might have favored the expansion of the most successful branches of the lineage.

  3. Rapid Spread of Zika Virus in The Americas--Implications for Public Health Preparedness for Mass Gatherings at the 2016 Brazil Olympic Games.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Eskild; Wilson, Mary E; Touch, Sok; McCloskey, Brian; Mwaba, Peter; Bates, Matthew; Dar, Osman; Mattes, Frank; Kidd, Mike; Ippolito, Giuseppe; Azhar, Esam I; Zumla, Alimuddin

    2016-03-01

    Mass gatherings at major international sporting events put millions of international travelers and local host-country residents at risk of acquiring infectious diseases, including locally endemic infectious diseases. The mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) has recently aroused global attention due to its rapid spread since its first detection in May 2015 in Brazil to 22 other countries and other territories in the Americas. The ZIKV outbreak in Brazil, has also been associated with a significant rise in the number of babies born with microcephaly and neurological disorders, and has been declared a 'Global Emergency by the World Health Organization. This explosive spread of ZIKV in Brazil poses challenges for public health preparedness and surveillance for the Olympics and Paralympics which are due to be held in Rio De Janeiro in August, 2016. We review the epidemiology and clinical features of the current ZIKV outbreak in Brazil, highlight knowledge gaps, and review the public health implications of the current ZIKV outbreak in the Americas. We highlight the urgent need for a coordinated collaborative response for prevention and spread of infectious diseases with epidemic potential at mass gatherings events. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  4. Rapid screening of operational freshwater availability using global models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Straatsma, M.W.; Vermeulen, P.; Kuijper, Marijn; Bonte, Matthijs; Niele, Frank; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    Freshwater shortage already affects large parts of the world, and is expected to increase rapidly over the coming decades as a result of increased water demands and the impacts of climate change. Global-scale water risk or stress maps are available online, but these lack quantitative information on

  5. Rapid fore-arc extension and detachment-mode spreading following subduction initiation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morris, Antony; Anderson, Mark W.; Omer, Ahmed; Maffione, Marco; van Hinsbergen, Douwe J.J.

    2017-01-01

    Most ophiolites have geochemical signatures that indicate formation by suprasubduction seafloor spreading above newly initiated subduction zones, and hence they record fore-arc processes operating following subduction initiation. They are frequently underlain by a metamorphic sole formed at the top

  6. Hydrothermal plumes over spreading-center axes: Global distributions and geological inferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Edward T.; German, Christopher R.; Elderfield, Henry

    Seafloor hydrothermal circulation is the principal agent of energy and mass exchange between the ocean and the earth's crust. Discharging fluids cool hot rock, construct mineral deposits, nurture biological communities, alter deep-sea mixing and circulation patterns, and profoundly influence ocean chemistry and biology. Although the active discharge orifices themselves cover only a minuscule percentage of the ridge-axis seafloor, the investigation and quantification of their effects is enhanced as a consequence of the mixing process that forms hydrothermal plumes. Hydrothermal fluids discharged from vents are rapidly diluted with ambient seawater by factors of 104-105 [Lupton et al., 1985]. During dilution, the mixture rises tens to hundreds of meters to a level of neutral buoyancy, eventually spreading laterally as a distinct hydrographic and chemical layer with a spatial scale of tens to thousands of kilometers [e.g., Lupton and Craig, 1981; Baker and Massoth, 1987; Speer and Rona, 1989].

  7. Introduction: simultaneously global and local: reassessing smallpox vaccination and its spread, 1789-1900.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Sanjoy; Brimnes, Niels

    2009-01-01

    The last two decades have seen a reawakening of scholarly interest in the history of smallpox prevention. Accounts of vaccination and others efforts at controlling smallpox have moved away from heroic narratives toward more nuanced and contextualized understandings. It is now accepted that several viruses traveled under the vaccine label from the outset, and it has been demonstrated that a variety of techniques were used to perform vaccination operations. The character of nineteenth century sea voyages that took the vaccine to distant territories has also been re-examined; sometimes the spread of the vaccine was caused by private networks and ad hoc decisions, while at other times it was the result of enterprises with close resemblances to contemporary centralized vaccination campaigns. Looking beyond Europe and North America we encounter a variety of state attitudes toward vaccination, ranging from concentrated efforts to spread the technique to efforts more uncertain and diluted. Although the reluctance to accept vaccination has been amply documented, recent studies emphasize this should not be attributed to simplistic dichotomies of modernity versus tradition or science versus culture; instead, instances of resistance are best studied as specific contextualized interactions. Indeed, factors like favorable geography, strong bureaucratic structures, and the absence of variolation seem to have helped the relatively smooth transfer of vaccination technologies. Perhaps most important, recent research encourages us to continue to study smallpox vaccination as a phenomenon that was simultaneously global and local.

  8. Mitochondrial Phylogenomics Resolves the Global Spread of Higher Termites, Ecosystem Engineers of the Tropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourguignon, Thomas; Lo, Nathan; Šobotník, Jan; Ho, Simon Y W; Iqbal, Naeem; Coissac, Eric; Lee, Maria; Jendryka, Martin M; Sillam-Dussès, David; Krížková, Barbora; Roisin, Yves; Evans, Theodore A

    2017-03-01

    The higher termites (Termitidae) are keystone species and ecosystem engineers. They have exceptional biomass and play important roles in decomposition of dead plant matter, in soil manipulation, and as the primary food for many animals, especially in the tropics. Higher termites are most diverse in rainforests, with estimated origins in the late Eocene (∼54 Ma), postdating the breakup of Pangaea and Gondwana when most continents became separated. Since termites are poor fliers, their origin and spread across the globe requires alternative explanation. Here, we show that higher termites originated 42-54 Ma in Africa and subsequently underwent at least 24 dispersal events between the continents in two main periods. Using phylogenetic analyses of mitochondrial genomes from 415 species, including all higher termite taxonomic and feeding groups, we inferred 10 dispersal events to South America and Asia 35-23 Ma, coinciding with the sharp decrease in global temperature, sea level, and rainforest cover in the Oligocene. After global temperatures increased, 23-5 Ma, there was only one more dispersal to South America but 11 to Asia and Australia, and one dispersal back to Africa. Most of these dispersal events were transoceanic and might have occurred via floating logs. The spread of higher termites across oceans was helped by the novel ecological opportunities brought about by environmental and ecosystem change, and led termites to become one of the few insect groups with specialized mammal predators. This has parallels with modern invasive species that have been able to thrive in human-impacted ecosystems. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Rapid characterization of thermoelectric properties of composition spread (La1-xCax)VO3 films

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itaka, K.; Wang, Q.J.; Minami, H.; Kawaji, H.; Koinuma, H.

    2004-01-01

    Vanadium oxides possess various interesting properties due to multivalence of a vanadium atom and attract our interest as a target material for the exploration of new applications. We investigated vanadates (La 1-x Ca x )VO 3 with a perovskite structure as thermoelectric (TE) materials because heavy electrons in vanadates are expected to generate large thermopower. To proceed the investigation of thermoelectric properties of the composition spread library more efficiently, we devised a new instrument of multi-channel measurement of their thermoelectric properties. The polarity of Seebeck coefficients changed from positive (0≤x≤0.2) to negative (0.2 3 (x∼0)

  10. Bypassing the 'rapid-clearance-in-males-buffer': A fourth mechanism to explain how concurrency enhances STI spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenyon, Chris R

    2017-12-01

    A number of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) persist for a considerably shorter period in the male urethra than the vagina. If the gap between sequential partnerships is longer than the duration of STI colonization in males, then this would protect future female partners from this STI in a setting of serial monogamy. If, however, males have more than one partner at a time (concurrency), then this would enable the STI to bypass this gap/buffer. We therefore propose bypassing the rapid-clearance-in-males-buffer as a fourth mechanism, whereby concurrency could enhance the spread of STIs.

  11. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  12. Rapid localized spread and immunologic containment define Herpes simplex virus-2 reactivation in the human genital tract.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiffer, Joshua T; Swan, David; Al Sallaq, Ramzi; Magaret, Amalia; Johnston, Christine; Mark, Karen E; Selke, Stacy; Ocbamichael, Negusse; Kuntz, Steve; Zhu, Jia; Robinson, Barry; Huang, Meei-Li; Jerome, Keith R; Wald, Anna; Corey, Lawrence

    2013-04-16

    Herpes simplex virus-2 (HSV-2) is shed episodically, leading to occasional genital ulcers and efficient transmission. The biology explaining highly variable shedding patterns, in an infected person over time, is poorly understood. We sampled the genital tract for HSV DNA at several time intervals and concurrently at multiple sites, and derived a spatial mathematical model to characterize dynamics of HSV-2 reactivation. The model reproduced heterogeneity in shedding episode duration and viral production, and predicted rapid early viral expansion, rapid late decay, and wide spatial dispersion of HSV replication during episodes. In simulations, HSV-2 spread locally within single ulcers to thousands of epithelial cells in genital epithelium. DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00288.001.

  13. Rapid spread and association of Schmallenberg virus with ruminant abortions and foetal death in Austria in 2012/2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinrigl, Adolf; Schiefer, Peter; Schleicher, Corina; Peinhopf, Walter; Wodak, Eveline; Bagó, Zoltán; Schmoll, Friedrich

    2014-10-15

    Schmallenberg virus (SBV) has emerged in summer-autumn 2011 in north-western Europe. Since then, SBV has been continuously spreading over Europe, including Austria, where antibodies to SBV, as well as SBV genome, were first detected in autumn 2012. This study was performed to demonstrate the dynamics of SBV spread within Austria, after its probable first introduction in summer 2012. True seroprevalence estimates for cattle and small ruminates were calculated to demonstrate temporal and regional differences of infection. Furthermore, the probability of SBV genome detection in foetal tissues of aborted or stillborn cattle and small ruminants as well as in allantoic fluid samples from cows with early foetal losses was retrospectively assessed. SBV first reached Austria most likely in July-August 2012, as indicated by retrospective detection of SBV antibodies and SBV genome in archived samples. From August to October 2012, a rapid increase in seroprevalence to over 98% in cattle and a contemporaneous peak in the detection of SBV genome in foetal tissues and allantoic fluid samples was noted, indicating widespread acute infections. Notably, foetal malformations were absent in RT-qPCR positive foetuses at this time of the epidemic. SBV spread within Austrian cattle reached a plateau phase as early as October 2012, without significant regional differences in SBV seroprevalence (98.4-100%). Estimated true seroprevalences among small ruminates were comparatively lower than in cattle and regionally different (58.3-95.6% in October 2012), potentially indicating an eastward spread of the infection, as well as different infection dynamics between cattle and small ruminants. Additionally, the probability of SBV genome detection over time differed significantly between small ruminant and cattle samples subjected to RT-qPCR testing. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Rapid estimation of the economic consequences of global earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, operational since mid 2007, rapidly estimates the most affected locations and the population exposure at different levels of shaking intensities. The PAGER system has significantly improved the way aid agencies determine the scale of response needed in the aftermath of an earthquake. For example, the PAGER exposure estimates provided reasonably accurate assessments of the scale and spatial extent of the damage and losses following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) in China, the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Mw 6.3) in Italy, the 2010 Haiti earthquake (Mw 7.0), and the 2010 Chile earthquake (Mw 8.8). Nevertheless, some engineering and seismological expertise is often required to digest PAGER's exposure estimate and turn it into estimated fatalities and economic losses. This has been the focus of PAGER's most recent development. With the new loss-estimation component of the PAGER system it is now possible to produce rapid estimation of expected fatalities for global earthquakes (Jaiswal and others, 2009). While an estimate of earthquake fatalities is a fundamental indicator of potential human consequences in developing countries (for example, Iran, Pakistan, Haiti, Peru, and many others), economic consequences often drive the responses in much of the developed world (for example, New Zealand, the United States, and Chile), where the improved structural behavior of seismically resistant buildings significantly reduces earthquake casualties. Rapid availability of estimates of both fatalities and economic losses can be a valuable resource. The total time needed to determine the actual scope of an earthquake disaster and to respond effectively varies from country to country. It can take days or sometimes weeks before the damage and consequences of a disaster can be understood both socially and economically. The objective of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system is

  15. Global Rapid Flood Mapping System with Spaceborne SAR Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, S. H.; Owen, S. E.; Hua, H.; Agram, P. S.; Fattahi, H.; Liang, C.; Manipon, G.; Fielding, E. J.; Rosen, P. A.; Webb, F.; Simons, M.

    2017-12-01

    As part of the Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) project for Natural Hazards, at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and California Institute of Technology, we have developed an automated system that produces derived products for flood extent map generation using spaceborne SAR data. The system takes user's input of area of interest polygons and time window for SAR data search (pre- and post-event). Then the system automatically searches and downloads SAR data, processes them to produce coregistered SAR image pairs, and generates log amplitude ratio images from each pair. Currently the system is automated to support SAR data from the European Space Agency's Sentinel-1A/B satellites. We have used the system to produce flood extent maps from Sentinel-1 SAR data for the May 2017 Sri Lanka floods, which killed more than 200 people and displaced about 600,000 people. Our flood extent maps were delivered to the Red Cross to support response efforts. Earlier we also responded to the historic August 2016 Louisiana floods in the United States, which claimed 13 people's lives and caused over $10 billion property damage. For this event, we made synchronized observations from space, air, and ground in close collaboration with USGS and NOAA. The USGS field crews acquired ground observation data, and NOAA acquired high-resolution airborne optical imagery within the time window of +/-2 hours of the SAR data acquisition by JAXA's ALOS-2 satellite. The USGS coordinates of flood water boundaries were used to calibrate our flood extent map derived from the ALOS-2 SAR data, and the map was delivered to FEMA for estimating the number of households affected. Based on the lessons learned from this response effort, we customized the ARIA system automation for rapid flood mapping and developed a mobile friendly web app that can easily be used in the field for data collection. Rapid automatic generation of SAR-based global flood maps calibrated with independent observations from

  16. The global spread of Zika virus: is public and media concern justified in regions currently unaffected?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Narayan Gyawali; Richard S.Bradbury; Andrew W.Taylor-Robinson

    2016-01-01

    Background:Zika virus,an Aedes mosquito-borne flavivirus,is fast becoming a worldwide public health concern following its suspected association with over 4000 recent cases of microcephaly among newborn infants in Brazil.Discussion:Prior to its emergence in Latin America in 2015-2016,Zika was known to exist at a relatively low prevalence in parts of Africa,Asia and the Pacific islands.An extension of its apparent global dispersion may be enabled by climate conditions suitable to support the population growth ofA.aegypti and A.albopictus mosquitoes over an expanding geographical range.In addition,increased globalisation continues to pose a risk for the spread of infection.Further,suspicions of alternative modes of virus transmission (sexual and vertical),if proven,provide a platform for outbreaks in mosquito non-endemic regions as well.Since a vaccine or anti-viral therapy is not yet available,current means of disease prevention involve protection from mosquito bites,excluding pregnant females from travelling to Zika-endemic territories,and practicing safe sex in those countries.Importantly,in countries where Zika is reported as endemic,caution is advised in planning to conceive a baby until such time as the apparent association between infection with the virus and microcephaly is either confirmed or refuted.The question arises as to what advice is appropriate to give in more economically developed countries distant to the current epidemic and in which Zika has not yet been reported.Summary:Despite understandable concern among the general public that has been fuelled by the media,in regions where Zika is not present,such as North America,Europe and Australia,at this time any outbreak (initiated by an infected traveler returning from an endemic area) would very probably be contained locally.Since Aedes spp.has very limited spatial dispersal,overlapping high population densities of mosquitoes and humans would be needed to sustain a focus of infection.However,as A

  17. The global spread of Zika virus: is public and media concern justified in regions currently unaffected?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyawali, Narayan; Bradbury, Richard S; Taylor-Robinson, Andrew W

    2016-04-19

    Zika virus, an Aedes mosquito-borne flavivirus, is fast becoming a worldwide public health concern following its suspected association with over 4000 recent cases of microcephaly among newborn infants in Brazil. Prior to its emergence in Latin America in 2015-2016, Zika was known to exist at a relatively low prevalence in parts of Africa, Asia and the Pacific islands. An extension of its apparent global dispersion may be enabled by climate conditions suitable to support the population growth of A. aegypti and A. albopictus mosquitoes over an expanding geographical range. In addition, increased globalisation continues to pose a risk for the spread of infection. Further, suspicions of alternative modes of virus transmission (sexual and vertical), if proven, provide a platform for outbreaks in mosquito non-endemic regions as well. Since a vaccine or anti-viral therapy is not yet available, current means of disease prevention involve protection from mosquito bites, excluding pregnant females from travelling to Zika-endemic territories, and practicing safe sex in those countries. Importantly, in countries where Zika is reported as endemic, caution is advised in planning to conceive a baby until such time as the apparent association between infection with the virus and microcephaly is either confirmed or refuted. The question arises as to what advice is appropriate to give in more economically developed countries distant to the current epidemic and in which Zika has not yet been reported. Despite understandable concern among the general public that has been fuelled by the media, in regions where Zika is not present, such as North America, Europe and Australia, at this time any outbreak (initiated by an infected traveler returning from an endemic area) would very probably be contained locally. Since Aedes spp. has very limited spatial dispersal, overlapping high population densities of mosquitoes and humans would be needed to sustain a focus of infection. However, as A

  18. Molecular phylogeography of canine distemper virus: Geographic origin and global spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panzera, Yanina; Sarute, Nicolás; Iraola, Gregorio; Hernández, Martín; Pérez, Ruben

    2015-11-01

    Canine distemper virus (CDV) (Paramyxoviridae-Morbillivirus) is a worldwide spread virus causing a fatal systemic disease in a broad range of carnivore hosts. In this study we performed Bayesian inferences using 208 full-length hemagglutinin gene nucleotide sequences isolated in 16 countries during 37 years (1975-2011). The estimated time to the most recent common ancestor suggested that current CDV strains emerged in the United States in the 1880s. This ancestor diversified through time into two ancestral clades, the current America 1 lineage that recently spread to Asia, and other ancestral clade that diversified and spread worldwide to originate the remaining eight lineages characterized to date. The spreading of CDV was characterized by several migratory events with posterior local differentiation, and expansion of the virus host range. A significant genetic flow between domestic and wildlife hosts is displayed; being domestic hosts the main viral reservoirs worldwide. This study is an extensive and integrative description of spatio/temporal population dynamics of CDV lineages that provides a novel evolutionary paradigm about the origin and dissemination of the current strains of the virus. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Impact of Rapid Susceptibility Testing and Antibiotic Selection Strategy on the Emergence and Spread of Antibiotic Resistance in Gonorrhea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuite, Ashleigh R; Gift, Thomas L; Chesson, Harrell W; Hsu, Katherine; Salomon, Joshua A; Grad, Yonatan H

    2017-11-27

    Increasing antibiotic resistance limits treatment options for gonorrhea. We examined the impact of a hypothetical point-of-care (POC) test reporting antibiotic susceptibility profiles on slowing resistance spread. A mathematical model describing gonorrhea transmission incorporated resistance emergence probabilities and fitness costs associated with resistance based on characteristics of ciprofloxacin (A), azithromycin (B), and ceftriaxone (C). We evaluated time to 1% and 5% prevalence of resistant strains among all isolates with the following: (1) empiric treatment (B and C), and treatment guided by POC tests determining susceptibility to (2) A only and (3) all 3 antibiotics. Continued empiric treatment without POC testing was projected to result in >5% of isolates being resistant to both B and C within 15 years. Use of either POC test in 10% of identified cases delayed this by 5 years. The 3 antibiotic POC test delayed the time to reach 1% prevalence of triply-resistant strains by 6 years, whereas the A-only test resulted in no delay. Results were less sensitive to assumptions about fitness costs and test characteristics with increasing test uptake. Rapid diagnostics reporting antibiotic susceptibility may extend the usefulness of existing antibiotics for gonorrhea treatment, but ongoing monitoring of resistance patterns will be critical. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

  20. Population-level genomics identifies the emergence and global spread of a human transmissible multidrug-resistant nontuberculous mycobacterium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Rincon, Daniela; Everall, Isobel; Brown, Karen P; Moreno, Pablo; Verma, Deepshikha; Hill, Emily; Drijkoningen, Judith; Gilligan, Peter; Esther, Charles R; Noone, Peadar G; Giddings, Olivia; Bell, Scott C.; Thomson, Rachel; Wainwright, Claire E.; Coulter, Chris; Pandey, Sushil; Wood, Michelle E; Stockwell, Rebecca E; Ramsay, Kay A; Sherrard, Laura J; Kidd, Timothy J; Jabbour, Nassib; Johnson, Graham R; Knibbs, Luke D; Morawska, Lidia; Sly, Peter D; Jones, Andrew; Bilton, Diana; Laurenson, Ian; Ruddy, Michael; Bourke, Stephen; Bowler, Ian CJW; Chapman, Stephen J; Clayton, Andrew; Cullen, Mairi; Daniels, Thomas; Dempsey, Owen; Denton, Miles; Desai, Maya; Drew, Richard J; Edenborough, Frank; Evans, Jason; Folb, Jonathan; Humphrey, Helen; Isalska, Barbara; Jensen-Fangel, Søren; Jönsson, Bodil; Jones, Andrew M.; Katzenstein, Terese L; Lillebaek, Troels; MacGregor, Gordon; Mayell, Sarah; Millar, Michael; Modha, Deborah; Nash, Edward F; O’Brien, Christopher; O’Brien, Deirdre; Ohri, Chandra; Pao, Caroline S; Peckham, Daniel; Perrin, Felicity; Perry, Audrey; Pressler, Tania; Prtak, Laura; Qvist, Tavs; Robb, Ali; Rodgers, Helen; Schaffer, Kirsten; Shafi, Nadia; van Ingen, Jakko; Walshaw, Martin; Watson, Danie; West, Noreen; Whitehouse, Joanna; Haworth, Charles S; Harris, Simon R; Ordway, Diane; Parkhill, Julian; Floto, R. Andres

    2016-01-01

    Lung infections with Mycobacterium abscessus, a species of multidrug resistant nontuberculous mycobacteria, are emerging as an important global threat to individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF) where they accelerate inflammatory lung damage leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Previously, M. abscessus was thought to be independently acquired by susceptible individuals from the environment. However, using whole genome analysis of a global collection of clinical isolates, we show that the majority of M. abscessus infections are acquired through transmission, potentially via fomites and aerosols, of recently emerged dominant circulating clones that have spread globally. We demonstrate that these clones are associated with worse clinical outcomes, show increased virulence in cell-based and mouse infection models, and thus represent an urgent international infection challenge. PMID:27846606

  1. Analytical solution of a stochastic model of risk spreading with global coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morita, Satoru; Yoshimura, Jin

    2013-11-01

    We study a stochastic matrix model to understand the mechanics of risk spreading (or bet hedging) by dispersion. Up to now, this model has been mostly dealt with numerically, except for the well-mixed case. Here, we present an analytical result that shows that optimal dispersion leads to Zipf's law. Moreover, we found that the arithmetic ensemble average of the total growth rate converges to the geometric one, because the sample size is finite.

  2. Spread of endemic disease and global change in an educational project: proposition of relationships developed in a twin partnership

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michela Viale

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The sudden event of the spread of dengue fever (or break-bone fever that appeared for the first time in Cape Verde in 2009 revealed that inappropriate management of waste can be considered a major cause of the spread of this disease. Dengue fever is a tropical infectious disease that is caused by the dengue virus. Its vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti, found an optimal environment for its life cycle in the context of Cape Verde, with the persistence of water in abandoned waste objects. The connection between the topics of Earth sciences and the spread of this disease is not obvious, but it was explored and illustrated in a school partnership. Activities with pupils and students provided an opportunity to investigate how some global phenomena, like climate change (with an increase in local rainfall and higher temperatures, are related to local events, such as the spread of dengue fever. Preventive strategies are conditioned by the geomorphology of the territory and by the complex relationships that connect the geosphere and the biosphere. For this reason, it is important to be aware of the risk of breaking these delicate balances, and hence activating unexpected consequences. The roles played by both partners linked knowledge about the natural dynamics of our planet with the development of appropriate behavior, thus contributing to the formation of responsible citizenship, to preserve and protect the environment. The partnership encouraged students to develop sustainable management strategies against dengue fever, and consequently against waste, actively involving them at school, at home, and in their community. In this study, we present a case study of the role of a school partnership in a complex problem, such as the spread of dengue fever and environmental pollution.

  3. Teaching for Global Competence in a Rapidly Changing World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colvin, Richard Lee; Edwards, Virginia

    2018-01-01

    This new publication sets forward the PISA framework for global competence developed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which aligns closely with the definition developed by the Center for Global Education at Asia Society. Based on the Center's extensive experience supporting educators in integrating global…

  4. Ancestral genetic diversity associated with the rapid spread of stress-tolerant coral symbionts in response to Holocene climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Hume, Benjamin C. C.

    2016-04-05

    Coral communities in the Persian/Arabian Gulf (PAG) withstand unusually high salinity levels and regular summer temperature maxima of up to ∼35 °C that kill conspecifics elsewhere. Due to the recent formation of the PAG and its subsequent shift to a hot climate, these corals have had only <6, 000 y to adapt to these extreme conditions and can therefore inform on how coral reefs may respond to global warming. One key to coral survival in the world\\'s warmest reefs are symbioses with a newly discovered alga, Symbiodinium thermophilum. Currently, it is unknown whether this symbiont originated elsewhere or emerged from unexpectedly fast evolution catalyzed by the extreme environment. Analyzing genetic diversity of symbiotic algae across >5, 000 km of the PAG, the Gulf of Oman, and the Red Sea coastline, we show that S. thermophilum is a member of a highly diverse, ancient group of symbionts cryptically distributed outside the PAG. We argue that the adjustment to temperature extremes by PAG corals was facilitated by the positive selection of preadapted symbionts. Our findings suggest that maintaining the largest possible pool of potentially stress-tolerant genotypes by protecting existing biodiversity is crucial to promote rapid adaptation to present-day climate change, not only for coral reefs, but for ecosystems in general.

  5. rapid increase in precaution The global financial crisis: origin ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    2010-05-01

    May 1, 2010 ... provoked a global flight on quality, caused firms to cut back on ... despite coordinated easing of monetary policy by governments and trillions ... indicated in the scope of the study, the discussions will be based on financial .... financial investors in decision making, which would overvalue asset prices in.

  6. Geographical spread of global emissions: Within-country inequalities are large and increasing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sauter, Caspar; Grether, Jean-Marie; Mathys, Nicole A.

    2016-01-01

    In spite of the extensive literature on greenhouse gas emission inequalities at the world-wide level, most of the evidence so far has been based on country-level data. However, the within-country dimension matters for both the implementation and the policy formation of climate policies. As a preliminary step towards a better understanding of within-country inequalities, this paper measures their extent for the two major greenhouse gases, CO_2 and CH_4, over the 1970–2008 period. Using Theil-index decompositions, we show that within-country inequalities account for the bulk of global inequality, and tend to increase over the sample period, in contrast with diminishing between-country inequalities. Including differences across sectors reveals that between-sector inequalities matter more than between-country inequalities, and between-sector inequalities become the dominant source of global inequality at the end of the sample period in the CO_2 case. Finally, estimated social tensions arising from the disconnection between emissions and future damages turn out to be increasing as soon as within-country disparities are taken into account. These orders of magnitude should be kept in mind while discussing the efficiency and fairness of alternative paths in combating global warming. - Highlights: • We estimate global spatial CO_2 and CH_4 inequality using grid data for 1970–2008. • Overall spatial emission inequality is constant for CO_2 and increasing for CH_4. • Within-country inequality is rising and constitutes the main bulk of overall inequality. • An important part of within country inequality is due to differences among sectors. • The gap between emitters and victims is rising within countries.

  7. The birth and spread of IWRM - A case study of global policy diffusion and translation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy Allouche

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available How did the idea of IWRM emerge at the global level? Why has IWRM become so popular and so resilient, at least in discourse and policy? What has caused IWRM policies to diffuse across time and space? The principal goal of this article is to identify a set of concepts and mechanisms to study the global diffusion and translation of IWRM through coercion, cooperation, or learning from the ground. The article will also highlight the extent to which this global diffusion was contested and translated into different meanings in terms of policy orientation. Overall, IWRM was a mindset of a particular period where the water policy paradigm was evolving in the same direction as sustainable development and other related paradigms in a post-Rio moment. There were no clear alternatives at the time but now IWRM is being questioned. This IWRM fatigue is leading to other framings and discourses around the water-food-energy nexus and the green economy.

  8. Searching for Grendel: origin and global spread of the C9ORF72 repeat expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pliner, Hannah A; Mann, David M; Traynor, Bryan J

    2014-03-01

    Recent advances are uncovering more and more of the genetic architecture underlying amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), a fatal neurodegenerative condition that affects ~6,000 Americans annually. Chief among these was the discovery that a large repeat expansion in the C9ORF72 gene is responsible for an unprecedented portion of familial and sporadic ALS cases. Much has been published on how this expansion disrupts neuronal homeostasis and how gene-based therapy might be an effective treatment in the future. Nevertheless, it is instructive to look back at the origins of this important mutation. In this opinion piece, we attempt to answer three key questions concerning C9ORF72. First, how many times did the expansion occur throughout human history? Second, how old is the expansion? And finally and perhaps most importantly, how did the expansion spread throughout Europe? We speculate that the expansion occurred only once in the past, that this event took place in the Finnish population and that the Vikings and their descendants were responsible for disseminating this mutation throughout the rest of the continent.

  9. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Rapid Clock Product Summary from NASA CDDIS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This derived product set consists of Global Navigation Satellite System Rapid Clock Product Summary from the NASA Crustal Dynamics Data Information System (CDDIS)....

  10. Global shortage of neonatal and paediatric antibiotic trials: rapid review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Georgina; Barker, Charlotte I; Folgori, Laura; Bielicki, Julia A; Bradley, John S; Lutsar, Irja; Sharland, Mike

    2017-10-13

    There have been few clinical trials (CTs) on antibiotics that inform neonatal and paediatric drug labelling. The rate of unlicensed and off-label prescribing in paediatrics remains high. It is unclear whether the current neonatal and paediatric antibiotic research pipeline is adequate to inform optimal drug dosing. Using the ClinicalTrials.gov registry, this review aims to establish the current global status of antibiotic CTs in children up to 18 years of age. Studies were identified using key word searches of the ClinicalTrials.gov registry and were manually filtered using prespecified inclusion/exclusion criteria. 76 registered open CTs of antibiotics in children were identified globally; 23 (30%) were recruiting newborns (only 8 (11%) included preterm neonates), 52 (68%) infants and toddlers, 58 (76%) children and 54 (71%) adolescents. The majority of registered trials were late phase (10 (15%) phase 3 and 23 (35%) phase 4/pharmacovigilance). Two-thirds were sponsored by non-profit organisations, compared with pharmaceutical companies (50 (66%) vs 26 (34%), respectively). A greater proportion of non-profit funded trials were efficacy-based strategic trials (n=34, 68%), in comparison with industry-led trials, which were most often focused on safety or pharmacokinetic data (n=17, 65%). Only 2 of the 37 antibiotics listed on the May 2016 Pew Charitable Trusts antibiotic development pipeline, currently being studied in adults, appear to be currently recruiting in open paediatric CTs. This review highlights that very few paediatric antibiotic CTs are being conducted globally, especially in neonates. There is a striking disparity noted between antibiotic drug development programmes in adults and children. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  11. Rapid parallel evolution overcomes global honey bee parasite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oddie, Melissa; Büchler, Ralph; Dahle, Bjørn; Kovacic, Marin; Le Conte, Yves; Locke, Barbara; de Miranda, Joachim R; Mondet, Fanny; Neumann, Peter

    2018-05-16

    In eusocial insect colonies nestmates cooperate to combat parasites, a trait called social immunity. However, social immunity failed for Western honey bees (Apis mellifera) when the ectoparasitic mite Varroa destructor switched hosts from Eastern honey bees (Apis cerana). This mite has since become the most severe threat to A. mellifera world-wide. Despite this, some isolated A. mellifera populations are known to survive infestations by means of natural selection, largely by supressing mite reproduction, but the underlying mechanisms of this are poorly understood. Here, we show that a cost-effective social immunity mechanism has evolved rapidly and independently in four naturally V. destructor-surviving A. mellifera populations. Worker bees of all four 'surviving' populations uncapped/recapped worker brood cells more frequently and targeted mite-infested cells more effectively than workers in local susceptible colonies. Direct experiments confirmed the ability of uncapping/recapping to reduce mite reproductive success without sacrificing nestmates. Our results provide striking evidence that honey bees can overcome exotic parasites with simple qualitative and quantitative adaptive shifts in behaviour. Due to rapid, parallel evolution in four host populations this appears to be a key mechanism explaining survival of mite infested colonies.

  12. Rapid, global demographic expansions after the origins of agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gignoux, Christopher R; Henn, Brenna M; Mountain, Joanna L

    2011-04-12

    The invention of agriculture is widely assumed to have driven recent human population growth. However, direct genetic evidence for population growth after independent agricultural origins has been elusive. We estimated population sizes through time from a set of globally distributed whole mitochondrial genomes, after separating lineages associated with agricultural populations from those associated with hunter-gatherers. The coalescent-based analysis revealed strong evidence for distinct demographic expansions in Europe, southeastern Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa within the past 10,000 y. Estimates of the timing of population growth based on genetic data correspond neatly to dates for the initial origins of agriculture derived from archaeological evidence. Comparisons of rates of population growth through time reveal that the invention of agriculture facilitated a fivefold increase in population growth relative to more ancient expansions of hunter-gatherers.

  13. The GLEaMviz computational tool, a publicly available software to explore realistic epidemic spreading scenarios at the global scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quaggiotto Marco

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Computational models play an increasingly important role in the assessment and control of public health crises, as demonstrated during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Much research has been done in recent years in the development of sophisticated data-driven models for realistic computer-based simulations of infectious disease spreading. However, only a few computational tools are presently available for assessing scenarios, predicting epidemic evolutions, and managing health emergencies that can benefit a broad audience of users including policy makers and health institutions. Results We present "GLEaMviz", a publicly available software system that simulates the spread of emerging human-to-human infectious diseases across the world. The GLEaMviz tool comprises three components: the client application, the proxy middleware, and the simulation engine. The latter two components constitute the GLEaMviz server. The simulation engine leverages on the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM framework, a stochastic computational scheme that integrates worldwide high-resolution demographic and mobility data to simulate disease spread on the global scale. The GLEaMviz design aims at maximizing flexibility in defining the disease compartmental model and configuring the simulation scenario; it allows the user to set a variety of parameters including: compartment-specific features, transition values, and environmental effects. The output is a dynamic map and a corresponding set of charts that quantitatively describe the geo-temporal evolution of the disease. The software is designed as a client-server system. The multi-platform client, which can be installed on the user's local machine, is used to set up simulations that will be executed on the server, thus avoiding specific requirements for large computational capabilities on the user side. Conclusions The user-friendly graphical interface of the GLEaMviz tool, along with its high level

  14. How reproductive ecology contributes to the spread of a globally invasive fish.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy E Deacon

    Full Text Available Invasive freshwater fish represent a major threat to biodiversity. Here, we first demonstrate the dramatic, human-mediated range expansion of the Trinidadian guppy (Poecilia reticulata, an invasive fish with a reputation for negatively impacting native freshwater communities. Next, we explore possible mechanisms that might explain successful global establishment of this species. Guppies, along with some other notable invasive fish species such as mosquitofish (Gambusia spp., have reproductive adaptations to ephemeral habitats that may enable introductions of very small numbers of founders to succeed. The remarkable ability of single pregnant guppies to routinely establish viable populations is demonstrated using a replicated mesocosm set up. In 86% of cases, these populations persisted for two years (the duration of the experiment. Establishment success was independent of founder origin (high and low predation habitats, and there was no loss of behavioural performance amongst mesocosm juveniles. Behavioural "signatures" of the founding locality were, however, evident in mesocosm fish. Our results demonstrate that introductions consisting of a single individual can lead to thriving populations of this invasive fish and suggest that particular caution should be exercised when introducing this species, or other livebearers, to natural water bodies.

  15. Complementary factors contributing to the rapid spread of HIV-I in sub-Saharan Africa: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyindo, M

    2005-01-01

    To examine and establish complementary factors that contribute to the alarmingly high prevalence of HIV-1 in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in order to create awareness and suggest possible measures to avert the spread of the pandemic. Review of literature via Medline, the Internet, articles in refereed journals, and un-refereed features from the East Africa media houses and personal communications. Most published data from 1981 to September 2004 found to have revealed an impact on the spread of HIV-1 in SSA were included in the review. Therefore, all selected articles were read and critically evaluated. Where possible the number of citations articles which had been received were sought to established the degree of impact. Abstracts of all articles identified were accessed, read and analysed to determined possible relevance to the spread of HIV-1. When relevance was established from the abstract the entire paper was read and important points were included in the review. A matrix was drawn to include all subtitles (e.g. polygamy, circumcision, poverty, etc). Below each subtitle all published works were included and prioritised. Published works that were found to have impact were included in the review. Finally a percent composite picture of all factors was drawn in an attempt to prioritise the factors, not withstanding the fact that most factors are interrelated and complementary. There are many reasons why the spread of HIV-1 in SSA has not been declining over the years. Main risk factors for HIV-1 infection and AIDS disease in SSA were found to include poverty, famine, low status of women in society, corruption, naive risk taking perception, resistance to sexual behaviour change, high prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STI), internal conflicts and refugee status, antiquated beliefs, lack of recreational facilities, ignorance of individual's HIV status, child and adult prostitution, uncertainty of safety of blood intended for transfusion, widow inheritance

  16. The link between rapid enigmatic amphibian decline and the globally emerging chytrid fungus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lötters, Stefan; Kielgast, Jos; Bielby, Jon; Schmidtlein, Sebastian; Bosch, Jaime; Veith, Michael; Walker, Susan F; Fisher, Matthew C; Rödder, Dennis

    2009-09-01

    Amphibians are globally declining and approximately one-third of all species are threatened with extinction. Some of the most severe declines have occurred suddenly and for unknown reasons in apparently pristine habitats. It has been hypothesized that these "rapid enigmatic declines" are the result of a panzootic of the disease chytridiomycosis caused by globally emerging amphibian chytrid fungus. In a Species Distribution Model, we identified the potential distribution of this pathogen. Areas and species from which rapid enigmatic decline are known significantly overlap with those of highest environmental suitability to the chytrid fungus. We confirm the plausibility of a link between rapid enigmatic decline in worldwide amphibian species and epizootic chytridiomycosis.

  17. Spread of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii global clone 2 in Asia and AbaR-type resistance islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dae Hun; Choi, Ji-Young; Kim, Hae Won; Kim, So Hyun; Chung, Doo Ryeon; Peck, Kyong Ran; Thamlikitkul, Visanu; So, Thomas Man-Kit; Yasin, Rohani M D; Hsueh, Po-Ren; Carlos, Celia C; Hsu, Li Yang; Buntaran, Latre; Lalitha, M K; Song, Jae-Hoon; Ko, Kwan Soo

    2013-11-01

    In this surveillance study, we identified the genotypes, carbapenem resistance determinants, and structural variations of AbaR-type resistance islands among carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) isolates from nine Asian locales. Clonal complex 92 (CC92), corresponding to global clone 2 (GC2), was the most prevalent in most Asian locales (83/108 isolates; 76.9%). CC108, or GC1, was a predominant clone in India. OXA-23 oxacillinase was detected in CRAB isolates from most Asian locales except Taiwan. blaOXA-24 was found in CRAB isolates from Taiwan. AbaR4-type resistance islands, which were divided into six subtypes, were identified in most CRAB isolates investigated. Five isolates from India, Malaysia, Singapore, and Hong Kong contained AbaR3-type resistance islands. Of these, three isolates harbored both AbaR3- and AbaR4-type resistance islands simultaneously. In this study, GC2 was revealed as a prevalent clone in most Asian locales, with the AbaR4-type resistance island predominant, with diverse variants. The significance of this study lies in identifying the spread of global clones of carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii in Asia.

  18. Global spread of mouse-adapted Staphylococcus aureus lineages CC1, CC15, and CC88 among mouse breeding facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mrochen, Daniel M; Grumann, Dorothee; Schulz, Daniel; Gumz, Janine; Trübe, Patricia; Pritchett-Corning, Kathleen; Johnson, Sarah; Nicklas, Werner; Kirsch, Petra; Martelet, Karine; Brandt, Jens van den; Berg, Sabine; Bröker, Barbara M; Wiles, Siouxsie; Holtfreter, Silva

    2017-11-20

    We previously reported that laboratory mice from all global vendors are frequently colonized with Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus). Genotyping of a snap sample of murine S. aureus isolates from Charles River, US, showed that mice were predominantly colonized with methicillin-sensitive CC88 strains. Here, we expanded our view and investigated whether laboratory mice from other global animal facilities are colonized with similar strains or novel S. aureus lineages, and whether the murine S. aureus isolates show features of host adaptation. In total, we genotyped 230 S. aureus isolates from various vendor facilities of laboratory mice around the globe (Charles River facilities in the USA, Canada, France, and Germany; another US facility) and university- or company-associated breeding facilities in Germany, China and New Zealand. Spa typing was performed to analyse the clonal relationship of the isolates. Moreover, multiplex PCRs were performed for human-specific virulence factors, the immune-evasion cluster (IEC) and superantigen genes (SAg). We found a total of 58 different spa types that clustered into 15 clonal complexes (CCs). Three of these S. aureus lineages had spread globally among laboratory mice and accounted for three quarters of the isolates: CC1 (13.5%), CC15 (14.3%), and CC88 (47.0%). Compared to human colonizing isolates of the same lineages, the murine isolates frequently lacked IEC genes and SAg genes on mobile genetic elements, implying long-term adaptation to the murine host. In conclusion, laboratory mice from various vendors are colonized with host-adapted S. aureus-strains of a few lineages, predominantly the CC88 lineage. S. aureus researchers must be cautioned that S. aureus colonization might be a relevant confounder in infection and vaccination studies and are therefore advised to screen their mice before experimentation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

  19. Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tizzoni Michele

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mathematical and computational models for infectious diseases are increasingly used to support public-health decisions; however, their reliability is currently under debate. Real-time forecasts of epidemic spread using data-driven models have been hindered by the technical challenges posed by parameter estimation and validation. Data gathered for the 2009 H1N1 influenza crisis represent an unprecedented opportunity to validate real-time model predictions and define the main success criteria for different approaches. Methods We used the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model to generate stochastic simulations of epidemic spread worldwide, yielding (among other measures the incidence and seeding events at a daily resolution for 3,362 subpopulations in 220 countries. Using a Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood analysis, the model provided an estimate of the seasonal transmission potential during the early phase of the H1N1 pandemic and generated ensemble forecasts for the activity peaks in the northern hemisphere in the fall/winter wave. These results were validated against the real-life surveillance data collected in 48 countries, and their robustness assessed by focusing on 1 the peak timing of the pandemic; 2 the level of spatial resolution allowed by the model; and 3 the clinical attack rate and the effectiveness of the vaccine. In addition, we studied the effect of data incompleteness on the prediction reliability. Results Real-time predictions of the peak timing are found to be in good agreement with the empirical data, showing strong robustness to data that may not be accessible in real time (such as pre-exposure immunity and adherence to vaccination campaigns, but that affect the predictions for the attack rates. The timing and spatial unfolding of the pandemic are critically sensitive to the level of mobility data integrated into the model. Conclusions Our results show that large-scale models can be used to provide valuable real

  20. Disruption of the novel gene fad104 causes rapid postnatal death and attenuation of cell proliferation, adhesion, spreading and migration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishizuka, Makoto; Kishimoto, Keishi; Kato, Ayumi; Ikawa, Masahito; Okabe, Masaru; Sato, Ryuichiro; Niida, Hiroyuki; Nakanishi, Makoto; Osada, Shigehiro; Imagawa, Masayoshi

    2009-01-01

    The molecular mechanisms at the beginning of adipogenesis remain unknown. Previously, we identified a novel gene, fad104 (factor for adipocyte differentiation 104), transiently expressed at the early stage of adipocyte differentiation. Since the knockdown of the expression of fad104 dramatically repressed adipogenesis, it is clear that fad104 plays important roles in adipocyte differentiation. However, the physiological roles of fad104 are still unknown. In this study, we generated fad104-deficient mice by gene targeting. Although the mice were born in the expected Mendelian ratios, all died within 1 day of birth, suggesting fad104 to be crucial for survival after birth. Furthermore, analyses of mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) prepared from fad104-deficient mice provided new insights into the functions of fad104. Disruption of fad104 inhibited adipocyte differentiation and cell proliferation. In addition, cell adhesion and wound healing assays using fad104-deficient MEFs revealed that loss of fad104 expression caused a reduction in stress fiber formation, and notably delayed cell adhesion, spreading and migration. These results indicate that fad104 is essential for the survival of newborns just after birth and important for cell proliferation, adhesion, spreading and migration

  1. Optimizing Hybrid Spreading in Metapopulations.

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, C.; Zhou, S.; Miller, J. C.; Cox, I. J.; Chain, B. M.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemic...

  2. Optimizing Hybrid Spreading in Metapopulations

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Miller, Joel C.; Cox, Ingemar J.; Chain, Benjamin M.

    2014-01-01

    Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemic...

  3. A Global Rapid Integrated Monitoring System for Water Cycle and Water Resource Assessment (Global-RIMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roads, John; Voeroesmarty, Charles

    2005-01-01

    The main focus of our work was to solidify underlying data sets, the data processing tools and the modeling environment needed to perform a series of long-term global and regional hydrological simulations leading eventually to routine hydrometeorological predictions. A water and energy budget synthesis was developed for the Mississippi River Basin (Roads et al. 2003), in order to understand better what kinds of errors exist in current hydrometeorological data sets. This study is now being extended globally with a larger number of observations and model based data sets under the new NASA NEWS program. A global comparison of a number of precipitation data sets was subsequently carried out (Fekete et al. 2004) in which it was further shown that reanalysis precipitation has substantial problems, which subsequently led us to the development of a precipitation assimilation effort (Nunes and Roads 2005). We believe that with current levels of model skill in predicting precipitation that precipitation assimilation is necessary to get the appropriate land surface forcing.

  4. Genomic Analysis of the Emergence and Rapid Global Dissemination of the Clonal Group 258 Klebsiella pneumoniae Pandemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jolene R Bowers

    Full Text Available Multidrug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae producing the KPC carbapenemase have rapidly spread throughout the world, causing severe healthcare-associated infections with limited antimicrobial treatment options. Dissemination of KPC-producing K. pneumoniae is largely attributed to expansion of a single dominant strain, ST258. In this study, we explore phylogenetic relationships and evolution within ST258 and its clonal group, CG258, using whole genome sequence analysis of 167 isolates from 20 countries collected over 17 years. Our results show a common ST258 ancestor emerged from its diverse parental clonal group around 1995 and likely acquired blaKPC prior to dissemination. Over the past two decades, ST258 has remained highly clonal despite diversity in accessory elements and divergence in the capsule polysaccharide synthesis locus. Apart from the large recombination event that gave rise to ST258, few mutations set it apart from its clonal group. However, one mutation occurs in a global transcription regulator. Characterization of outer membrane protein sequences revealed a profile in ST258 that includes a truncated OmpK35 and modified OmpK37. Our work illuminates potential genomic contributors to the pathogenic success of ST258, helps us better understand the global dissemination of this strain, and identifies genetic markers unique to ST258.

  5. Modulators of mercury risk to wildlife and humans in the context of rapid global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Silbergeld, Ellen K.; Basu, Niladri; Bustamante, Paco; Diaz-Barriga, Fernando; Hopkins, William A.; Kidd, Karen A.; Nyland, Jennifer F.

    2018-01-01

    Environmental mercury (Hg) contamination is an urgent global health threat. The complexity of Hg in the environment can hinder accurate determination of ecological and human health risks, particularly within the context of the rapid global changes that are altering many ecological processes, socioeconomic patterns, and other factors like infectious disease incidence, which can affect Hg exposures and health outcomes. However, the success of global Hg-reduction efforts depends on accurate assessments of their effectiveness in reducing health risks. In this paper, we examine the role that key extrinsic and intrinsic drivers play on several aspects of Hg risk to humans and organisms in the environment. We do so within three key domains of ecological and human health risk. First, we examine how extrinsic global change drivers influence pathways of Hg bioaccumulation and biomagnification through food webs. Next, we describe how extrinsic socioeconomic drivers at a global scale, and intrinsic individual-level drivers, influence human Hg exposure. Finally, we address how the adverse health effects of Hg in humans and wildlife are modulated by a range of extrinsic and intrinsic drivers within the context of rapid global change. Incorporating components of these three domains into research and monitoring will facilitate a more holistic understanding of how ecological and societal drivers interact to influence Hg health risks.

  6. The emergence of pan-resistant Gram-negative pathogens merits a rapid global political response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Timothy R; Toleman, Mark A

    2012-01-01

    Recent media coverage of New Delhi metallo-β-lactamase (NDM-1) put antibiotic resistance back on the political map if only for the wrong reasons, mainly the reaction to the naming of NDM-1 and the incorrect assumption that medical tourism was being deliberately targeted. However, work on NDM-1 has most certainly highlighted the rapid dissemination of new antibiotic resistance mechanisms via economic globalization. The example of NDM-1 has also magnified the desperate need for a publicly funded global antibiotic surveillance system rather than just national or regional systems. Furthermore, there is a pressing need to establish a global task force to enforce international transparency and accountability on antibiotic stewardship and the implementation of measures to curb antibiotic resistance. An international antibiotic stewardship index should be established that is related to each country's gross domestic product (GDP) and assesses how much of their GDP is committed to publically funded health initiatives aimed at controlling antibiotic resistance.

  7. Ocean, Spreading Centre

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Krishna, K.S.

    over the global midoceanic ridges have found some explicit relationships between spreading rate, seismic structure, and ridge-axis morphology. Bibliography Detrick, R. S., Buhl, P., Vera, E., Mutter, J., Orcutt, J., Madsen, J., and Brocher, T., 1987...

  8. Peculiarities of spreading separatist trends in the Modern World in the context of development of the global processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bostan Sergii Ivanovich

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The international collaboration is entering the new era of globalization revealing not only the new ways of development and quantum growth for humanity but also new threats, problems and global conflicts. There is now doubt that humanity is facing new global range of problems, agenda of the 21st century and urgent issues of global organization of the world order and systems of global administration acceptable for all states. Preventing distribution of international confrontation between the major political players through advancement of separatist and terrorist trends must become the main priority for the international system of collective security, which should be changed according to the realities of the modern global processes.

  9. Metofluthrin: investigations into the use of a volatile spatial pyrethroid in a global spread of dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses

    OpenAIRE

    Buhagiar, Tamara S.; Devine, Gregor J.; Ritchie, Scott A.

    2017-01-01

    Background Metofluthrin reduces biting activity in Aedes aegypti through the confusion, knockdown, and subsequent kill of a mosquito. A geographical spread in dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, increases intervention demands. Response to a Zika outbreak may require a different strategy than dengue, as high-risk individuals, specifically pregnant women, need to be targeted. Methods In semi-field conditions within a residential property in Cairns, Queensland, the impacts of metofluthrin on ...

  10. Optimizing hybrid spreading in metapopulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Miller, Joel C; Cox, Ingemar J; Chain, Benjamin M

    2015-04-29

    Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemics, and examine the optimum balance between spreading mechanisms in terms of achieving the maximum outbreak size. We show the existence of critically hybrid epidemics where neither spreading mechanism alone can cause a noticeable spread but a combination of the two spreading mechanisms would produce an enormous outbreak. Our results provide new strategies for maximising beneficial epidemics and estimating the worst outcome of damaging hybrid epidemics.

  11. Rapid Internationalization of SMEs: Evidence from Born Global Firms in Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian A. Cancino

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The literature on born global firms in developed countries has revealed some factors that influence the rapid internationalization of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs, such as the technological level of the sector in which the firm participates, psychological and geographical distances from the target markets, and the existence of contact networks. To date, little research has been carried out on this topic for Latin American countries. This paper explores how certain determinants influence Chilean born global firms. A logistic regression model is used to analyze 112 SMEs with regular export activities. The results show that Chilean born global firms are influenced by national and international contact networks that their founders are able to generate. The psychological distance between Chilean SMEs and developed countries in Asia, North America and Europe also influences the internationalization of Chilean SMEs. The principal characteristic of Chilean born global firms is their lack of participation in highly technological sectors, with these SMEs instead being involved in sectors that actively exploit natural resources. The results of this study permit certain public policy recommendations to be made that might boost the development of export SMEs.

  12. The Key Role of Eyewitnesses in Rapid Impact Assessment of Global Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Steed, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.; Etivant, C.; Frobert, L.; Godey, S.

    2014-12-01

    Uncertainties in rapid impact assessments of global earthquakes are intrinsically large because they rely on 3 main elements (ground motion prediction models, building stock inventory and related vulnerability) which values and/or spatial variations are poorly constrained. Furthermore, variations of hypocentral location and magnitude within their respective uncertainty domain can lead to significantly different shaking level for centers of population and change the scope of the disaster. We present the strategy and methods implemented at the Euro-Med Seismological Centre (EMSC) to rapidly collect in-situ observations on earthquake effects from eyewitnesses for reducing uncertainties of rapid earthquake impact assessment. It comprises crowdsourced information (online questionnaires, pics) as well as information derived from real time analysis of web traffic (flashourcing technique), and more recently deployment of QCN (Quake Catcher Network) low cost sensors. We underline the importance of merging results of different methods to improve performances and reliability of collected data.We try to better understand and respond to public demands and expectations after earthquakes through improved information services and diversification of information tools (social networks, smartphone app., browsers adds-on…), which, in turn, drive more eyewitnesses to our services and improve data collection. We will notably present our LastQuake Twitter feed (Quakebot) and smartphone applications (IOs and android) which only report earthquakes that matter for the public and authorities, i.e. felt and damaging earthquakes identified thanks to citizen generated information.

  13. Addressing Barriers to the Development and Adoption of Rapid Diagnostic Tests in Global Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Miller

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Immunochromatographic rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs have demonstrated significant potential for use as point-of- care diagnostic tests in resource-limited settings. Most notably, RDTs for malaria have reached an unparalleled level of technological maturity and market penetration, and are now considered an important complement to standard microscopic methods of malaria diagnosis. However, the technical development of RDTs for other infectious diseases, and their uptake within the global health community as a core diagnostic modality, has been hindered by a number of extant challenges. These range from technical and biological issues, such as the need for better affinity agents and biomarkers of disease, to social, infrastructural, regulatory and economic barriers, which have all served to slow their adoption and diminish their impact. In order for the immunochromatographic RDT format to be successfully adapted to other disease targets, to see widespread distribution, and to improve clinical outcomes for patients on a global scale, these challenges must be identified and addressed, and the global health community must be engaged in championing the broader use of RDTs.

  14. Addressing Barriers to the Development and Adoption of Rapid Diagnostic Tests in Global Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Miller

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Immunochromatographic rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs have demonstrated significant potential for use as point-of-care diagnostic tests in resource-limited settings. Most notably, RDTs for malaria have reached an unparalleled level of technological maturity and market penetration, and are now considered an important complement to standard microscopic methods of malaria diagnosis. However, the technical development of RDTs for other infectious diseases, and their uptake within the global health community as a core diagnostic modality, has been hindered by a number of extant challenges. These range from technical and biological issues, such as the need for better affinity agents and biomarkers of disease, to social, infrastructural, regulatory and economic barriers, which have all served to slow their adoption and diminish their impact. In order for the immunochromatographic RDT format to be successfully adapted to other disease targets, to see widespread distribution, and to improve clinical outcomes for patients on a global scale, these challenges must be identified and addressed, and the global health community must be engaged in championing the broader use of RDTs.

  15. Addressing Barriers to the Development and Adoption of Rapid Diagnostic Tests in Global Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Eric; Sikes, Hadley D

    Immunochromatographic rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) have demonstrated significant potential for use as point-of-care diagnostic tests in resource-limited settings. Most notably, RDTs for malaria have reached an unparalleled level of technological maturity and market penetration, and are now considered an important complement to standard microscopic methods of malaria diagnosis. However, the technical development of RDTs for other infectious diseases, and their uptake within the global health community as a core diagnostic modality, has been hindered by a number of extant challenges. These range from technical and biological issues, such as the need for better affinity agents and biomarkers of disease, to social, infrastructural, regulatory and economic barriers, which have all served to slow their adoption and diminish their impact. In order for the immunochromatographic RDT format to be successfully adapted to other disease targets, to see widespread distribution, and to improve clinical outcomes for patients on a global scale, these challenges must be identified and addressed, and the global health community must be engaged in championing the broader use of RDTs.

  16. Global earthquake casualties due to secondary effects: A quantitative analysis for improving rapid loss analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marano, K.D.; Wald, D.J.; Allen, T.I.

    2010-01-01

    This study presents a quantitative and geospatial description of global losses due to earthquake-induced secondary effects, including landslide, liquefaction, tsunami, and fire for events during the past 40 years. These processes are of great importance to the US Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which is currently being developed to deliver rapid earthquake impact and loss assessments following large/significant global earthquakes. An important question is how dominant are losses due to secondary effects (and under what conditions, and in which regions)? Thus, which of these effects should receive higher priority research efforts in order to enhance PAGER's overall assessment of earthquakes losses and alerting for the likelihood of secondary impacts? We find that while 21.5% of fatal earthquakes have deaths due to secondary (non-shaking) causes, only rarely are secondary effects the main cause of fatalities. The recent 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake is a notable exception, with extraordinary losses due to tsunami. The potential for secondary hazards varies greatly, and systematically, due to regional geologic and geomorphic conditions. Based on our findings, we have built country-specific disclaimers for PAGER that address potential for each hazard (Earle et al., Proceedings of the 14th World Conference of the Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China, 2008). We will now focus on ways to model casualties from secondary effects based on their relative importance as well as their general predictability. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

  17. Simulative Global Warming Negatively Affects Cotton Fiber Length through Shortening Fiber Rapid Elongation Duration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Yanjiao; Yang, Jiashuo; Hu, Wei; Zahoor, Rizwan; Chen, Binglin; Zhao, Wenqing; Meng, Yali; Zhou, Zhiguo

    2017-08-23

    Global warming could possibly increase the air temperature by 1.8-4.0 °C in the coming decade. Cotton fiber is an essential raw material for the textile industry. Fiber length, which was found negatively related to the excessively high temperature, determines yarn quality to a great extent. To investigate the effects of global warming on cotton fiber length and its mechaism, cottons grown in artificially elevated temperature (34.6/30.5 °C, T day /T night ) and ambient temperature (31.6/27.3 °C) regions have been investigated. Becaused of the high sensitivities of enzymes V-ATPase, PEPC, and genes GhXTH1 and GhXTH2 during fiber elongation when responding to high temperature stress, the fiber rapid elongation duration (FRED) has been shortened, which led to a significant suppression on final fiber length. Through comprehensive analysis, T night had a great influence on fiber elongation, which means T n could be deemed as an ideal index for forecasting the degree of high temperature stress would happen to cotton fiber property in future. Therefore, we speculate the global warming would bring unfavorable effects on cotton fiber length, which needs to take actions in advance for minimizing the loss in cotton production.

  18. A genomic portrait of the emergence, evolution, and global spread of a methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus pandemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holden, Matthew T G; Hsu, Li-Yang; Kurt, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    The widespread use of antibiotics in association with high-density clinical care has driven the emergence of drug-resistant bacteria that are adapted to thrive in hospitalized patients. Of particular concern are globally disseminated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) clones that ...

  19. The Benefits and Limitations of Crowdsourced Information for Rapid Damage Assessment of Global Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Landès, M.; Roussel, F.

    2017-12-01

    The Internet has fastened the collection of felt reports and macroseismic data after global earthquakes. At the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC), where the traditional online questionnaires have been replace by thumbnail-based questionnaires, an average of half of the reports are collected within 10 minutes of an earthquake's occurrence. In regions where EMSC is well identified this goes down to 5 min. The user simply specifies the thumbnail corresponding to observed effects erasing languages barriers and improving collection via small smartphone screens. A previous study has shown that EMSC data is well correlated with "Did You Feel It" (DYFI) data and 3 independent, manually collected datasets. The efficiency and rapidity of felt report collection through thumbnail-based questionnaires does not necessarily mean that they offer a complete picture of the situation for all intensities values, especially the higher ones. There are several potential limitations. Demographics probably play a role but so might eyewitnesses' behaviors: it is probably not their priority to report when their own safety and that of their loved ones is at stake. We propose to test this hypothesis on EMSC felt reports and to extend the study to LastQuake smartphone application uses. LastQuake is a free smartphone app providing very rapid information on felt earthquakes. There are currently 210 000 active users around the world covering almost every country except for a few ones in Sub-Saharan Africa. Along with felt reports we also analyze the characteristics of LastQuake app launches. For both composite datasets created from 108 earthquakes, we analyze the rapidity of eyewitnesses' reaction and how it changes with intensity values and surmise how they reflect different types of behaviors. We will show the intrinsic limitations of crowdsourced information for rapid situation awareness. More importantly, we will show in which cases the lack of crowdsourced information could

  20. Synchronous x-ray and radio mode switches: a rapid global transformation of the pulsar magnetosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermsen, W; Hessels, J W T; Kuiper, L; van Leeuwen, J; Mitra, D; de Plaa, J; Rankin, J M; Stappers, B W; Wright, G A E; Basu, R; Alexov, A; Coenen, T; Grießmeier, J-M; Hassall, T E; Karastergiou, A; Keane, E; Kondratiev, V I; Kramer, M; Kuniyoshi, M; Noutsos, A; Serylak, M; Pilia, M; Sobey, C; Weltevrede, P; Zagkouris, K; Asgekar, A; Avruch, I M; Batejat, F; Bell, M E; Bell, M R; Bentum, M J; Bernardi, G; Best, P; Bîrzan, L; Bonafede, A; Breitling, F; Broderick, J; Brüggen, M; Butcher, H R; Ciardi, B; Duscha, S; Eislöffel, J; Falcke, H; Fender, R; Ferrari, C; Frieswijk, W; Garrett, M A; de Gasperin, F; de Geus, E; Gunst, A W; Heald, G; Hoeft, M; Horneffer, A; Iacobelli, M; Kuper, G; Maat, P; Macario, G; Markoff, S; McKean, J P; Mevius, M; Miller-Jones, J C A; Morganti, R; Munk, H; Orrú, E; Paas, H; Pandey-Pommier, M; Pandey, V N; Pizzo, R; Polatidis, A G; Rawlings, S; Reich, W; Röttgering, H; Scaife, A M M; Schoenmakers, A; Shulevski, A; Sluman, J; Steinmetz, M; Tagger, M; Tang, Y; Tasse, C; ter Veen, S; Vermeulen, R; van de Brink, R H; van Weeren, R J; Wijers, R A M J; Wise, M W; Wucknitz, O; Yatawatta, S; Zarka, P

    2013-01-25

    Pulsars emit from low-frequency radio waves up to high-energy gamma-rays, generated anywhere from the stellar surface out to the edge of the magnetosphere. Detecting correlated mode changes across the electromagnetic spectrum is therefore key to understanding the physical relationship among the emission sites. Through simultaneous observations, we detected synchronous switching in the radio and x-ray emission properties of PSR B0943+10. When the pulsar is in a sustained radio-"bright" mode, the x-rays show only an unpulsed, nonthermal component. Conversely, when the pulsar is in a radio-"quiet" mode, the x-ray luminosity more than doubles and a 100% pulsed thermal component is observed along with the nonthermal component. This indicates rapid, global changes to the conditions in the magnetosphere, which challenge all proposed pulsar emission theories.

  1. Metofluthrin: investigations into the use of a volatile spatial pyrethroid in a global spread of dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buhagiar, Tamara S; Devine, Gregor J; Ritchie, Scott A

    2017-05-30

    Metofluthrin reduces biting activity in Aedes aegypti through the confusion, knockdown, and subsequent kill of a mosquito. A geographical spread in dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, increases intervention demands. Response to a Zika outbreak may require a different strategy than dengue, as high-risk individuals, specifically pregnant women, need to be targeted. In semi-field conditions within a residential property in Cairns, Queensland, the impacts of metofluthrin on biting behaviour of free-flying Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti were evaluated. Mortality in Ae. aegypti exposed to metofluthrin over a 22 h period was 100% compared to 2.7% in an untreated room. No biting activity was observed in mosquitoes up to 5 m from the emanator after 10 min of metofluthrin exposure. Use of metofluthrin reduced biting activity up to 8 m, regardless of the host's proximity (near or far) to a dark harbourage area (HA) (P metofluthrin emanator, the host was most likely bitten when located immediately next to a HA (within 1 m) versus 8 m away from the HA (P = 0.006). The addition of a ceiling fan (0.8 m/s airflow) prevented all biting activity after 10 min of metofluthrin exposure. Previously unexposed Ae. aegypti were less likely to reach the host in a metofluthrin-treated room [Formula: see text]= 31%) compared to an untreated room ([Formula: see text]) (P metofluthrin to infiltrate protected locations within a room causing knockdown in caged mosquitoes, required more time than exposed locations (P Metofluthrin is effective in interrupting indoor host-seeking in Ae. aegypti. Metofluthrin's efficacy is increased by centrally locating the emanator in the room, and by using a fan to increase airflow. Newly treated rooms may require a period of 2-4 h for sufficient distribution of the metofluthrin into protected locations where mosquitoes may be resting.

  2. Travelling Policies and Global Buzzwords: How International Non-Governmental Organizations and Charities Spread the Word about Early Childhood in the Global South

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penn, Helen

    2011-01-01

    This article is based on a web-search commissioned by an international charity to review the work of international non-governmental organizations (INGOs) and charities which promote and support early childhood education and care (ECEC) in the global South. The article examines examples of such initiatives. It is suggested that there is…

  3. A global airport-based risk model for the spread of dengue infection via the air transport network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren Gardner

    Full Text Available The number of travel-acquired dengue infections has seen a consistent global rise over the past decade. An increased volume of international passenger air traffic originating from regions with endemic dengue has contributed to a rise in the number of dengue cases in both areas of endemicity and elsewhere. This paper reports results from a network-based risk assessment model which uses international passenger travel volumes, travel routes, travel distances, regional populations, and predictive species distribution models (for the two vector species, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus to quantify the relative risk posed by each airport in importing passengers with travel-acquired dengue infections. Two risk attributes are evaluated: (i the risk posed by through traffic at each stopover airport and (ii the risk posed by incoming travelers to each destination airport. The model results prioritize optimal locations (i.e., airports for targeted dengue surveillance. The model is easily extendible to other vector-borne diseases.

  4. Genomic analysis of globally diverse Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains provides insights into emergence and spread of multidrug resistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manson, Abigail L.; Cohen, Keira A.; Abeel, Thomas; Desjardins, Christopher A.; Armstrong, Derek T.; Barry, Clifton E.; Brand, Jeannette; Chapman, Sinéad B.; Cho, Sang-Nae; Gabrielian, Andrei; Gomez, James; Jodals, Andreea M.; Joloba, Moses; Jureen, Pontus; Lee, Jong Seok; Malinga, Lesibana; Maiga, Mamoudou; Nordenberg, Dale; Noroc, Ecaterina; Romancenco, Elena; Salazar, Alex; Ssengooba, Willy; Velayati, A. A.; Winglee, Kathryn; Zalutskaya, Aksana; Via, Laura E.; Cassell, Gail H.; Dorman, Susan E.; Ellner, Jerrold; Farnia, Parissa; Galagan, James E.; Rosenthal, Alex; Crudu, Valeriu; Homorodean, Daniela; Hsueh, Po-Ren; Narayanan, Sujatha; Pym, Alexander S.; Skrahina, Alena; Swaminathan, Soumya; Van der Walt, Martie; Alland, David; Bishai, William R.; Cohen, Ted; Hoffner, Sven; Birren, Bruce W.; Earl, Ashlee M.

    2017-01-01

    Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), caused by drug resistant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, is an increasingly serious problem worldwide. In this study, we examined a dataset of 5,310 M. tuberculosis whole genome sequences from five continents. Despite great diversity with respect to geographic point of isolation, genetic background and drug resistance, patterns of drug resistance emergence were conserved globally. We have identified harbinger mutations that often precede MDR. In particular, the katG S315T mutation, conferring resistance to isoniazid, overwhelmingly arose before rifampicin resistance across all lineages, geographic regions, and time periods. Molecular diagnostics that include markers for rifampicin resistance alone will be insufficient to identify pre-MDR strains. Incorporating knowledge of pre-MDR polymorphisms, particularly katG S315, into molecular diagnostics will enable targeted treatment of patients with pre-MDR-TB to prevent further development of MDR-TB. PMID:28092681

  5. The impact of rapid economic growth and globalization on zinc nutrition in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwun, In-Sook; Do, Mi-Sook; Chung, Hae-Rang; Kim, Yang Ha; Beattie, John H

    2009-08-01

    Zn deficiency may be widespread in Asian countries such as South Korea. However, dietary habits have changed in response to rapid economic growth and globalization. Zn nutrition in South Koreans has therefore been assessed during a period (1969-1998) of unprecedented economic growth. Cross-sectional food consumption data from the Korean National Nutrition Survey Reports (KNNSR) of South Korea at four separate time points (1969, 1978, 1988 and 1998) were used to calculate Zn, Ca and phytate intakes using various food composition tables, databases and literature values. Nutrient values in local foods were cited from their analysed values. Average Zn intake was 5.8, 4.8 and 5.3 mg/d for 1969, 1978 and 1988 respectively, increasing to 7.3 mg/d in 1998 (73 % of the Korean Dietary Reference Intake). The phytate:Zn molar ratio decreased from 21 to 8 during the study period. Dietary Zn depletion due to marked decreases in cereal consumption, particularly barley which has a low Zn bioavailability, was counterbalanced by marked increases in the consumption of meat and fish, which are also Zn-rich foods. Reduced phytate consumption coincident with increased Zn intake suggests that Zn bioavailability also improved, particularly by 1998. Although total Zn intake was not greatly affected over the initial period of economic growth in South Korea (1969-1988), Zn contributions from different food sources changed markedly and both Zn intake and potential bioavailability were improved by 1998. The study may have implications for Zn nutrition in other Asian countries currently experiencing rapid economic growth.

  6. The global partnership: its achievements, missed opportunities and potential to address future threats from the spread of CBRN materials and expertise - 59335

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heyes, Alan; Bowen, Wyn; Chalmers, Hugh

    2012-01-01

    Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: In 2002, the G8 launched the Global Partnership (GP) against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction. The partnerships budget was placed at $20 billion over 10 years, and it was supported by some 23 countries and the European Union (EU).Though it has had little public recognition, the partnership has been one of the G8's most successful initiatives and has led to many benefits, including improved international security and addressing a sizeable proportion of the Cold War nuclear and chemical weapons arsenal in the Former Soviet Union. Its future, however, remains undecided, as its funding is set to expire in less than two years. In 2009 and 2010 Kings College London with generous funding support from the US John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, carried out a detailed evaluation of the achievements and benefits of the GP to date, its failings and lost opportunities, and potential future direction. Our findings indicate that the partnership has aided security in the Former Soviet Union and had a significant number of wider benefits with the potential to continue to do the same on a broader geographic level in future. As such, it is a valuable tool to assist the international community to work together to address global threats relating to chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear materials and related expertise and the G8 should take steps to renew its funding. (authors)

  7. International knowledge mobility and urban development in rapidly globalizing areas: building global hubs for talent in Dubai and Abu Dhabi

    OpenAIRE

    Ewers, Michael

    2016-01-01

    This paper examines the processes through which the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) cities of Abu Dhabi and Dubai attract and integrate knowledge workers into their labor markets. It focuses on how the UAE has acquired the human capital to create post-oil economies, deploying its oil windfalls into massive urban development strategies in order to create global hubs for talent. More significantly, it analyzes how the UAE’s strategies and frameworks for attracting global knowle...

  8. Global transcriptional profiling of longitudinal clinical isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis exhibiting rapid accumulation of drug resistance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anirvan Chatterjee

    Full Text Available The identification of multidrug resistant (MDR, extensively and totally drug resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb, in vulnerable sites such as Mumbai, is a grave threat to the control of tuberculosis. The current study aimed at explaining the rapid expression of MDR in Directly Observed Treatment Short Course (DOTS compliant patients, represents the first study comparing global transcriptional profiles of 3 pairs of clinical Mtb isolates, collected longitudinally at initiation and completion of DOTS. While the isolates were drug susceptible (DS at onset and MDR at completion of DOTS, they exhibited identical DNA fingerprints at both points of collection. The whole genome transcriptional analysis was performed using total RNA from H37Rv and 3 locally predominant spoligotypes viz. MANU1, CAS and Beijing, hybridized on MTBv3 (BuG@S microarray, and yielded 36, 98 and 45 differentially expressed genes respectively. Genes encoding transcription factors (sig, rpoB, cell wall biosynthesis (emb genes, protein synthesis (rpl and additional central metabolic pathways (ppdK, pknH, pfkB were found to be down regulated in the MDR isolates as compared to the DS isolate of the same genotype. Up regulation of drug efflux pumps, ABC transporters, trans-membrane proteins and stress response transcriptional factors (whiB in the MDR isolates was observed. The data indicated that Mtb, without specific mutations in drug target genes may persist in the host due to additional mechanisms like drug efflux pumps and lowered rate of metabolism. Furthermore this population of Mtb, which also showed reduced DNA repair activity, would result in selection and stabilization of spontaneous mutations in drug target genes, causing selection of a MDR strain in the presence of drug pressures. Efflux pump such as drrA may play a significant role in increasing fitness of low level drug resistant cells and assist in survival of Mtb till acquisition of drug resistant mutations with

  9. The global warming scare

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sunavala, P.D.

    1992-01-01

    It is argued that the present propaganda about the global warming with its disastrous consequences is a scare spread by some First World countries, especially the United States, to prevent the rapid industrialization of developing third world countries. (author). 6 refs., 1 tab

  10. Factors Important for Rapid Internationalization : A Multiple Case-Study of Born Global Internet-Based Service Firms in Sweden

    OpenAIRE

    Burman, Anna; Stjernström, Ida

    2017-01-01

    The evolution of globalization and technology have changed the playground for international business and made it possible for smaller businesses to compete internationally among large and capital intensive companies. Markets become increasingly alike with converging product preferences and changing the world into one large integrated marketplace easily accessible for firms of all sizes. Recent research in the field of International Business has shed light on small firms that rapidly become in...

  11. Early and rapid globalization as part of innovation and growth strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zijdemans, Erik; Azimi, Zohreh; Tanev, Stoyan

    propositions (Bailetti & Zijdemans, 2014). The GVG was tested empirically through its application to 12 cybersecurity start-ups in Ottawa, ON, Canada. Additionally, the applicability of the GVG was validated by an in depth case study of a business development agency focusing on supporting the global start......) – a framework linking the ex-ante value drivers and ex-post characteristics of BG firms. Our aim is to use the GVG to help innovative start-ups in making strategic ex-ante decisions contributing to the development of competitive global business models, complementary global resources and differentiated value...... of newly created technology firms. The preliminary results indicate that business development agencies currently do not actively or efficiently support the global start of new firms. They need however appropriate tools and mechanisms that would help them developing such capacity....

  12. Rapid and coordinated processing of global motion images by local clusters of retinal ganglion cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Akihiro; Tachibana, Masao

    2017-01-01

    Even when the body is stationary, the whole retinal image is always in motion by fixational eye movements and saccades that move the eye between fixation points. Accumulating evidence indicates that the brain is equipped with specific mechanisms for compensating for the global motion induced by these eye movements. However, it is not yet fully understood how the retina processes global motion images during eye movements. Here we show that global motion images evoke novel coordinated firing in retinal ganglion cells (GCs). We simultaneously recorded the firing of GCs in the goldfish isolated retina using a multi-electrode array, and classified each GC based on the temporal profile of its receptive field (RF). A moving target that accompanied the global motion (simulating a saccade following a period of fixational eye movements) modulated the RF properties and evoked synchronized and correlated firing among local clusters of the specific GCs. Our findings provide a novel concept for retinal information processing during eye movements.

  13. Fetuin-A associates with histones intracellularly and shuttles them to exosomes to promote focal adhesion assembly resulting in rapid adhesion and spreading in breast carcinoma cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nangami, Gladys; Koumangoye, Rainelli; Shawn Goodwin, J; Sakwe, Amos M; Marshall, Dana; Higginbotham, James; Ochieng, Josiah

    2014-11-01

    The present analyses were undertaken to define the mechanisms by which fetuin-A modulates cellular adhesion. FLAG-tagged fetuin-A was expressed in breast carcinoma and HEK-293T cells. We demonstrated by confocal microscopy that fetuin-A co-localizes with histone H2A in the cell nucleus, forms stable complexes with histones such as H2A and H3 in solution, and shuttles histones to exosomes. The rate of cellular adhesion and spreading to either fibronectin or laminin coated wells was accelerated significantly in the presence of either endogenous fetuin-A or serum derived protein. More importantly, the formation of focal adhesion complexes on surfaces coated by laminin or fibronectin was accelerated in the presence of fetuin-A or histone coated exosomes. Cellular adhesion mediated by histone coated exosomes was abrogated by heparin and heparinase III. Heparinase III cleaves heparan sulfate from cell surface heparan sulfate proteoglycans. Lastly, the uptake of histone coated exosomes and subsequent cellular adhesion, was abrogated by heparin. Taken together, the data suggest a mechanism where fetuin-A, either endogenously synthesized or supplied extracellularly can extract histones from the nucleus or elsewhere in the cytosol/membrane and load them on cellular exosomes which then mediate adhesion by interacting with cell surface heparan sulfate proteoglycans via bound histones. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Attention to local and global levels of hierarchical Navon figures affects rapid scene categorization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, John; Johnson, Aaron P

    2014-01-01

    In four experiments, we investigated how attention to local and global levels of hierarchical Navon figures affected the selection of diagnostic spatial scale information used in scene categorization. We explored this issue by asking observers to classify hybrid images (i.e., images that contain low spatial frequency (LSF) content of one image, and high spatial frequency (HSF) content from a second image) immediately following global and local Navon tasks. Hybrid images can be classified according to either their LSF, or HSF content; thus, making them ideal for investigating diagnostic spatial scale preference. Although observers were sensitive to both spatial scales (Experiment 1), they overwhelmingly preferred to classify hybrids based on LSF content (Experiment 2). In Experiment 3, we demonstrated that LSF based hybrid categorization was faster following global Navon tasks, suggesting that LSF processing associated with global Navon tasks primed the selection of LSFs in hybrid images. In Experiment 4, replicating Experiment 3 but suppressing the LSF information in Navon letters by contrast balancing the stimuli examined this hypothesis. Similar to Experiment 3, observers preferred to classify hybrids based on LSF content; however and in contrast, LSF based hybrid categorization was slower following global than local Navon tasks.

  15. Attention to local and global levels of hierarchical Navon figures affects rapid scene categorization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, John; Johnson, Aaron P.

    2014-01-01

    In four experiments, we investigated how attention to local and global levels of hierarchical Navon figures affected the selection of diagnostic spatial scale information used in scene categorization. We explored this issue by asking observers to classify hybrid images (i.e., images that contain low spatial frequency (LSF) content of one image, and high spatial frequency (HSF) content from a second image) immediately following global and local Navon tasks. Hybrid images can be classified according to either their LSF, or HSF content; thus, making them ideal for investigating diagnostic spatial scale preference. Although observers were sensitive to both spatial scales (Experiment 1), they overwhelmingly preferred to classify hybrids based on LSF content (Experiment 2). In Experiment 3, we demonstrated that LSF based hybrid categorization was faster following global Navon tasks, suggesting that LSF processing associated with global Navon tasks primed the selection of LSFs in hybrid images. In Experiment 4, replicating Experiment 3 but suppressing the LSF information in Navon letters by contrast balancing the stimuli examined this hypothesis. Similar to Experiment 3, observers preferred to classify hybrids based on LSF content; however and in contrast, LSF based hybrid categorization was slower following global than local Navon tasks. PMID:25520675

  16. A Global Comparative Evaluation of Commercial Immunochromatographic Rapid Diagnostic Tests for Visceral Leishmaniasis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cunningham, Jane; Hasker, Epco; Das, Pradeep; El Safi, Sayda; Goto, Hiro; Mondal, Dinesh; Mbuchi, Margaret; Mukhtar, Maowia; Rabello, Ana; Rijal, Suman; Sundar, Shyam; Wasunna, Monique; Adams, Emily; Menten, Joris; Peeling, Rosanna; Boelaert, Marleen; Khanal, Basudha; Das, Murari; Oliveira, Edward; de Assis, Tália Machado; Costa, Dorcas Lamounier; Bhaskar, Khondaker Rifathassan; Huda, M. Mamun; Hassan, Mukidul; Abdoun, Asim Osman; Awad, Aymen; Osman, Mohamed; Prajapati, Dinesh Kumar; Gidwani, Kamlesh; Tiwary, Puja; Paniago, Anamaria Mello Miranda; Sanchez, Maria Carmen Arroyo; Celeste, Beatriz Julieta; Jacquet, Diane; Magiri, Charles; Muia, A.; Kesusu, J.; Ageed, Al Farazdag; Galal, Nuha; Osman, Osman Salih; Gupta, A. K.; Bimal, Afrad S.; Das, V. N. R.

    2012-01-01

    Background. Poor access to diagnosis stymies control of visceral leishmaniasis (VL). Antibody-detecting rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) can be performed in peripheral health settings. However, there are many brands available and published reports of variable accuracy. Methods. Commercial VL RDTs

  17. Surveying Geology Concepts in Education Standards for a Rapidly Changing Global Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guffey, Sarah K.; Slater, Stephanie J.; Schleigh, Sharon P.; Slater, Timothy F.; Heyer, Inge

    2016-01-01

    Internationally much attention is being paid to which of a seemingly endless list of scientific concepts should be taught to schoolchildren to enable them to best participate in the global economy of the 21st Century. In regards to science education, the concepts framing the subject of geology holds exalted status as core scientific principles in…

  18. Cooperative spreading processes in multiplex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Xiang; Chen, Shihua; Wu, Xiaoqun; Ning, Di; Lu, Jun-An

    2016-06-01

    This study is concerned with the dynamic behaviors of epidemic spreading in multiplex networks. A model composed of two interacting complex networks is proposed to describe cooperative spreading processes, wherein the virus spreading in one layer can penetrate into the other to promote the spreading process. The global epidemic threshold of the model is smaller than the epidemic thresholds of the corresponding isolated networks. Thus, global epidemic onset arises in the interacting networks even though an epidemic onset does not arise in each isolated network. Simulations verify the analysis results and indicate that cooperative spreading processes in multiplex networks enhance the final infection fraction.

  19. Historical legacies accumulate to shape future biodiversity in an era of rapid global change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Essl, F.; Dullinger, S.; Rabitsch, W.; Hulme, P. E.; Pyšek, Petr; Wilson, J. R. U.; Richardson, D. M.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 5 (2015), s. 534-547 ISSN 1366-9516 R&D Projects: GA ČR GB14-36079G Grant - others:AV ČR(CZ) AP1002 Program:Akademická prémie - Praemium Academiae Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : biological invasions * global change * time lags Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 4.566, year: 2015

  20. Role of Atmospheric Cloud Radiative Effects in the Intermodal Spread in the Shift of Southern Hemispheric Eddy-driven Jet in Responses to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Thompson, D. W. J.; Bony, S.

    2017-12-01

    Observations and most climate models suggest storm track and extratropical eddy driven jet shifts poleward in a warmer climate, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. However, the magnitude of such shifts remains uncertain. Even for a prescribed uniform SST changes, models produce large inter-model spread in the magnitude of jet shift, suggesting that a substantial part of these uncertainties are caused by the impact of cloud radiative effects on the atmospheric heating rate per se. In this study we will investigate 1) how much do clouds contribute to the spread of the circulation response in the absence of SST coupling? 2) how much do clouds contribute to the spread of the direct CO2 and SST-only response?

  1. Rapid global ocean-atmosphere response to Southern Ocean freshening during the last glacial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turney, Chris S M; Jones, Richard T; Phipps, Steven J; Thomas, Zoë; Hogg, Alan; Kershaw, A Peter; Fogwill, Christopher J; Palmer, Jonathan; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Adolphi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund; Hughen, Konrad A; Staff, Richard A; Grosvenor, Mark; Golledge, Nicholas R; Rasmussen, Sune Olander; Hutchinson, David K; Haberle, Simon; Lorrey, Andrew; Boswijk, Gretel; Cooper, Alan

    2017-09-12

    Contrasting Greenland and Antarctic temperatures during the last glacial period (115,000 to 11,650 years ago) are thought to have been driven by imbalances in the rates of formation of North Atlantic and Antarctic Deep Water (the 'bipolar seesaw'). Here we exploit a bidecadally resolved 14 C data set obtained from New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) to undertake high-precision alignment of key climate data sets spanning iceberg-rafted debris event Heinrich 3 and Greenland Interstadial (GI) 5.1 in the North Atlantic (~30,400 to 28,400 years ago). We observe no divergence between the kauri and Atlantic marine sediment 14 C data sets, implying limited changes in deep water formation. However, a Southern Ocean (Atlantic-sector) iceberg rafted debris event appears to have occurred synchronously with GI-5.1 warming and decreased precipitation over the western equatorial Pacific and Atlantic. An ensemble of transient meltwater simulations shows that Antarctic-sourced salinity anomalies can generate climate changes that are propagated globally via an atmospheric Rossby wave train.A challenge for testing mechanisms of past climate change is the precise correlation of palaeoclimate records. Here, through climate modelling and the alignment of terrestrial, ice and marine 14 C and 10 Be records, the authors show that Southern Ocean freshwater hosing can trigger global change.

  2. Vortex core structure and global properties of rapidly rotating Bose-Einstein condensates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baym, Gordon; Pethick, C.J.

    2004-01-01

    We develop an approach for calculating stationary states of rotating Bose-Einstein condensates in harmonic traps which is applicable for arbitrary ratios of the rotation frequency to the transverse frequency of the trap ω perpendicular . Assuming the number of vortices to be large, we write the condensate wave function as the product of a function that describes the structure of individual vortices times an envelope function varying slowly on the scale of the vortex spacing. By minimizing the energy, we derive Gross-Pitaevskii equations that determine the properties of individual vortices and the global structure of the cloud. For low rotation rates, the structure of a vortex is that of an isolated vortex in a uniform medium, while for rotation rates approaching the frequency of the trap (the mean-field lowest-Landau-level regime), the structure is that of the lowest p-wave state of a particle in a harmonic trap with frequency ω perpendicular . The global structure of the cloud is determined by minimizing the energy with respect to variations of the envelope function; for conditions appropriate to most experimental investigations to date, we predict that the transverse density profile of the cloud will be of the Thomas-Fermi form, rather than the Gaussian structure predicted on the assumption that the wave function consists only of components in the lowest Landau level for a regular array of vortices

  3. Information spreading dynamics in hypernetworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suo, Qi; Guo, Jin-Li; Shen, Ai-Zhong

    2018-04-01

    Contact pattern and spreading strategy fundamentally influence the spread of information. Current mathematical methods largely assume that contacts between individuals are fixed by networks. In fact, individuals are affected by all his/her neighbors in different social relationships. Here, we develop a mathematical approach to depict the information spreading process in hypernetworks. Each individual is viewed as a node, and each social relationship containing the individual is viewed as a hyperedge. Based on SIS epidemic model, we construct two spreading models. One model is based on global transmission, corresponding to RP strategy. The other is based on local transmission, corresponding to CP strategy. These models can degenerate into complex network models with a special parameter. Thus hypernetwork models extend the traditional models and are more realistic. Further, we discuss the impact of parameters including structure parameters of hypernetwork, spreading rate, recovering rate as well as information seed on the models. Propagation time and density of informed nodes can reveal the overall trend of information dissemination. Comparing these two models, we find out that there is no spreading threshold in RP, while there exists a spreading threshold in CP. The RP strategy induces a broader and faster information spreading process under the same parameters.

  4. Rapid Detection Strategies for the Global Threat of Zika Virus: Current State, New Hypotheses and Limitations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shruti Shukla

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The current scenario regarding the widespread Zika virus (ZIKV has resulted in numerous diagnostic studies, specifically in South America and in locations where there is frequent entry of travelers returning from ZIKV-affected areas, including pregnant women with or without clinical symptoms of ZIKV infection. The World Health Organization, WHO, announced that millions of cases of ZIKV are likely to occur in the United States of America in the near future. This situation has created an alarming public health emergency of international concern requiring the detection of this life-threatening viral candidate due to increased cases of newborn microcephaly associated with ZIKV infection. Hence, this review reports possible methods and strategies for the fast and reliable detection of ZIKV with particular emphasis on current updates, knowledge and new hypotheses that might be helpful for medical professionals in poor and developing countries that urgently need to address this problem. In particular, we emphasize liposome-based biosensors. Although these biosensors are currently among the less popular tools for human disease detection, they have become useful tools for the screening and detection of pathogenic bacteria, fungi and viruses because of their versatile advantageous features compared to other sensing devices. This review summarizes the currently available methods employed for the rapid detection of ZIKV and suggests an innovative approach involving the application of a liposome-based hypothesis for the development of new strategies for ZIKV detection and their use as effective biomedicinal tools.

  5. Thumbnail‐based questionnaires for the rapid and efficient collection of macroseismic data from global earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, Remy; Landes, Matthieu; Roussel, Frederic; Steed, Robert; Mazet-Roux, Gilles; Martin, Stacey S.; Hough, Susan E.

    2017-01-01

    The collection of earthquake testimonies (i.e., qualitative descriptions of felt shaking) is essential for macroseismic studies (i.e., studies gathering information on how strongly an earthquake was felt in different places), and when done rapidly and systematically, improves situational awareness and in turn can contribute to efficient emergency response. In this study, we present advances made in the collection of testimonies following earthquakes around the world using a thumbnail‐based questionnaire implemented on the European‐Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) smartphone app and its website compatible for mobile devices. In both instances, the questionnaire consists of a selection of thumbnails, each representing an intensity level of the European Macroseismic Scale 1998. We find that testimonies are collected faster, and in larger numbers, by way of thumbnail‐based questionnaires than by more traditional online questionnaires. Responses were received from all seismically active regions of our planet, suggesting that thumbnails overcome language barriers. We also observed that the app is not sufficient on its own, because the websites are the main source of testimonies when an earthquake strikes a region for the first time in a while; it is only for subsequent shocks that the app is widely used. Notably though, the speed of the collection of testimonies increases significantly when the app is used. We find that automated EMSC intensities as assigned by user‐specified thumbnails are, on average, well correlated with “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) responses and with the three independently and manually derived macroseismic datasets, but there is a tendency for EMSC to be biased low with respect to DYFI at moderate and large intensities. We address this by proposing a simple adjustment that will be verified in future earthquakes.

  6. Hydrological and associated biogeochemical consequences of rapid global warming during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmichael, Matthew J.; Inglis, Gordon N.; Badger, Marcus P. S.; Naafs, B. David A.; Behrooz, Leila; Remmelzwaal, Serginio; Monteiro, Fanny M.; Rohrssen, Megan; Farnsworth, Alexander; Buss, Heather L.; Dickson, Alexander J.; Valdes, Paul J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pancost, Richard D.

    2017-10-01

    The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) hyperthermal, 56 million years ago (Ma), is the most dramatic example of abrupt Cenozoic global warming. During the PETM surface temperatures increased between 5 and 9 °C and the onset likely took hydrological and associated biogeochemical feedbacks, and proxy data from the PETM can provide constraints on changes in warm climate hydrology simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). In this paper, we provide a critical review of biological and geochemical signatures interpreted as direct or indirect indicators of hydrological change at the PETM, explore the importance of adopting multi-proxy approaches, and present a preliminary model-data comparison. Hydrological records complement those of temperature and indicate that the climatic response at the PETM was complex, with significant regional and temporal variability. This is further illustrated by the biogeochemical consequences of inferred changes in hydrology and, in fact, changes in precipitation and the biogeochemical consequences are often conflated in geochemical signatures. There is also strong evidence in many regions for changes in the episodic and/or intra-annual distribution of precipitation that has not widely been considered when comparing proxy data to GCM output. Crucially, GCM simulations indicate that the response of the hydrological cycle to the PETM was heterogeneous - some regions are associated with increased precipitation - evaporation (P - E), whilst others are characterised by a decrease. Interestingly, the majority of proxy data come from the regions where GCMs predict an increase in PETM precipitation. We propose that comparison of hydrological proxies to GCM output can be an important test of model skill, but this will be enhanced by further data from regions of model-simulated aridity and simulation of extreme precipitation events.

  7. RAPID DETERMINATION OF FOCAL DEPTH USING A GLOBAL NETWORK OF SMALL-APERTURE SEISMIC ARRAYS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seats, K.; Koper, K.; Benz, H.

    2009-12-01

    The National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) operates 24 hours a day, 365 days a year with the mission of locating and characterizing seismic events around the world. A key component of this task is quickly determining the focal depth of each seismic event, which has a first-order effect on estimates of ground shaking used in the impact assessment applications of emergency response activities. Current methods of depth estimation used at the NEIC include arrival time inversion both with and without depth phases, a Bayesian depth constraint based on historical seismicity (1973-present), and moment tensor inversion primarily using P- and S-wave waveforms. In this study, we explore the possibility of automated modeling of waveforms from vertical-component arrays of the International Monitoring System (IMS) to improve rapid depth estimation at NEIC. Because these arrays are small-aperture, they are effective at increasing signal to noise ratios for frequencies of 1 Hz and higher. Currently, NEIC receives continuous real-time data from 23 IMS arrays. Following work done by previous researchers, we developed a technique that acts as an array of arrays. For a given epicentral location we calculate fourth root beams for each IMS array in the distance range of 30 to 95 degrees at the expected slowness vector of the first arrival. Because the IMS arrays are small-aperture, these beams highlight energy that has slowness similar to the first arrival, such as depth phases. The beams are rectified by taking the envelope and then automatically aligned on the largest peak within 5 seconds of the expected arrival time. The station beams are then combined into network beams assuming a range of depths varying from 10 km to 700 km in increments of 1 km. The network beams are computed assuming both pP and sP propagation, and a measure of beam power is output as a function of depth for both propagation models, as well as their sum. We

  8. Visual working memory modulates low-level saccade target selection: Evidence from rapidly generated saccades in the global effect paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingworth, Andrew; Matsukura, Michi; Luck, Steven J.

    2013-01-01

    In three experiments, we examined the influence of visual working memory (VWM) on the metrics of saccade landing position in a global effect paradigm. Participants executed a saccade to the more eccentric object in an object pair appearing on the horizontal midline, to the left or right of central fixation. While completing the saccade task, participants maintained a color in VWM for an unrelated memory task. Either the color of the saccade target matched the memory color (target match), the color of the distractor matched the memory color (distractor match), or the colors of neither object matched the memory color (no match). In the no-match condition, saccades tended to land at the midpoint between the two objects: the global, or averaging, effect. However, when one of the two objects matched VWM, the distribution of landing position shifted toward the matching object, both for target match and for distractor match. VWM modulation of landing position was observed even for the fastest quartile of saccades, with a mean latency as low as 112 ms. Effects of VWM on such rapidly generated saccades, with latencies in the express-saccade range, indicate that VWM interacts with the initial sweep of visual sensory processing, modulating perceptual input to oculomotor systems and thereby biasing oculomotor selection. As a result, differences in memory match produce effects on landing position similar to the effects generated by differences in physical salience. PMID:24190909

  9. Visual working memory modulates low-level saccade target selection: evidence from rapidly generated saccades in the global effect paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingworth, Andrew; Matsukura, Michi; Luck, Steven J

    2013-11-04

    In three experiments, we examined the influence of visual working memory (VWM) on the metrics of saccade landing position in a global effect paradigm. Participants executed a saccade to the more eccentric object in an object pair appearing on the horizontal midline, to the left or right of central fixation. While completing the saccade task, participants maintained a color in VWM for an unrelated memory task. Either the color of the saccade target matched the memory color (target match), the color of the distractor matched the memory color (distractor match), or the colors of neither object matched the memory color (no match). In the no-match condition, saccades tended to land at the midpoint between the two objects: the global, or averaging, effect. However, when one of the two objects matched VWM, the distribution of landing position shifted toward the matching object, both for target match and for distractor match. VWM modulation of landing position was observed even for the fastest quartile of saccades, with a mean latency as low as 112 ms. Effects of VWM on such rapidly generated saccades, with latencies in the express-saccade range, indicate that VWM interacts with the initial sweep of visual sensory processing, modulating perceptual input to oculomotor systems and thereby biasing oculomotor selection. As a result, differences in memory match produce effects on landing position similar to the effects generated by differences in physical salience.

  10. Rapid Global River Flood Risk Assessment under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios: An Extreme Case of Eurasian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Young-joo; Magome, Jun; Hasegawa, Akira; Iwami, Yoichi

    2017-04-01

    Causing widespread devastation with massive economic damage and loss of human lives, flood disasters hamper economic growth and accelerate poverty particularly in developing countries. Globally, this trend will likely continue due to increase in flood magnitude and lack of preparedness for extreme events. In line with risk reduction efforts since the early 21st century, the monitors and governors of global river floods should pay attention to international scientific and policy communities for support to facilitate evidence-based policy making with a special interest in long-term changes due to climate change and socio-economic effects. Although advanced hydrological inundation models and risk models have been developed to reveal flood risk, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability at a river basin, it is obviously hard to identify the distribution and locations of continent-level flood risk based on national-level data. Therefore, we propose a methodological possibility for rapid global flood risk assessment with the results from its application to the two periods, i.e., Present (from 1980 to 2004) and Future (from 2075 to 2099). The method is particularly designed to effectively simplify complexities of a hazard area by calculating the differential inundation depth using GFID2M (global flood inundation depth 2-dimension model), despite low data availability. In this research, we addressed the question of which parts in the Eurasian region (8E to 180E, 0N to 60N) can be found as high-risk areas in terms of exposed population and economy in case of a 50-year return period flood. Economic losses were estimated according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario, and the flood scale was defined using the annual maximum daily river discharge under the extreme conditions of climate change simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2S based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. As a preliminary result, the total potential economic loss in the

  11. Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5–2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Ian; Osborn, Timothy J.; Steiner São Bernardo, Christine; Peres, Carlos A.; Lake, Iain R.

    2018-01-01

    The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global-mean temperature well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. While it is recognized that there are benefits for human health in limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, the magnitude with which those societal benefits will be accrued remains unquantified. Crucial to public health preparedness and response is the understanding and quantification of such impacts at different levels of warming. Using dengue in Latin America as a study case, a climate-driven dengue generalized additive mixed model was developed to predict global warming impacts using five different global circulation models, all scaled to represent multiple global-mean temperature assumptions. We show that policies to limit global warming to 2 °C could reduce dengue cases by about 2.8 (0.8–7.4) million cases per year by the end of the century compared with a no-policy scenario that warms by 3.7 °C. Limiting warming further to 1.5 °C produces an additional drop in cases of about 0.5 (0.2–1.1) million per year. Furthermore, we found that by limiting global warming we can limit the expansion of the disease toward areas where incidence is currently low. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for more comprehensive studies incorporating socioeconomic scenarios and how they may further impact dengue incidence. Our results demonstrate that although future climate change may amplify dengue transmission in the region, impacts may be avoided by constraining the level of warming. PMID:29844166

  12. Infectious diseases epidemic threats and mass gatherings: Refocusing global attention on the continuing spread of the Middle East Respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zumla, A. (Alimuddin); Alagaili, A.N. (Abdulaziz N.); Cotten, M. (Matthew); Azhar, E.I. (Esam I.)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractMedia and World Health Organization (WHO) attention on Zika virus transmission at the 2016 Rio Olympic Games and the 2015 Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa diverted the attention of global public health authorities from other lethal infectious diseases with epidemic potential. Mass

  13. Ecological ethics in captivity: balancing values and responsibilities in zoo and aquarium research under rapid global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minteer, Ben A; Collins, James P

    2013-01-01

    Ethical obligations to animals in conservation research and management are manifold and often conflicting. Animal welfare concerns often clash with the ethical imperative to understand and conserve a population or ecosystem through research and management intervention. The accelerating pace and impact of global environmental change, especially climate change, complicates our understanding of these obligations. One example is the blurring of the distinction between ex situ (zoo- and aquarium-based) conservation and in situ (field-based) approaches as zoos and aquariums become more active in field conservation work and as researchers and managers consider more intensive interventions in wild populations and ecosystems to meet key conservation goals. These shifts, in turn, have consequences for our traditional understanding of the ethics of wildlife research and management, including our relative weighting of animal welfare and conservation commitments across rapidly evolving ex situ and in situ contexts. Although this changing landscape in many ways supports the increased use of captive wildlife in conservation-relevant research, it raises significant ethical concerns about human intervention in populations and ecosystems, including the proper role of zoos and aquariums as centers for animal research and conservation in the coming decades. Working through these concerns requires a pragmatic approach to ethical analysis, one that is able to make trade-offs among the many goods at stake (e.g., animal welfare, species viability, and ecological integrity) as we strive to protect species from further decline and extinction in this century.

  14. Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER): A System for Rapidly Determining the Impact of Earthquakes Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, Paul S.; Wald, David J.; Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Allen, Trevor I.; Hearne, Michael G.; Marano, Kristin D.; Hotovec, Alicia J.; Fee, Jeremy

    2009-01-01

    Within minutes of a significant earthquake anywhere on the globe, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system assesses its potential societal impact. PAGER automatically estimates the number of people exposed to severe ground shaking and the shaking intensity at affected cities. Accompanying maps of the epicentral region show the population distribution and estimated ground-shaking intensity. A regionally specific comment describes the inferred vulnerability of the regional building inventory and, when available, lists recent nearby earthquakes and their effects. PAGER's results are posted on the USGS Earthquake Program Web site (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/), consolidated in a concise one-page report, and sent in near real-time to emergency responders, government agencies, and the media. Both rapid and accurate results are obtained through manual and automatic updates of PAGER's content in the hours following significant earthquakes. These updates incorporate the most recent estimates of earthquake location, magnitude, faulting geometry, and first-hand accounts of shaking. PAGER relies on a rich set of earthquake analysis and assessment tools operated by the USGS and contributing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks. A focused research effort is underway to extend PAGER's near real-time capabilities beyond population exposure to quantitative estimates of fatalities, injuries, and displaced population.

  15. Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  16. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  17. Can molecular diffusion explain Space Shuttle plume spreading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, R. R.; Plane, John M. C.; Stevens, Michael H.; Paxton, L. J.; Christensen, A. B.; Crowley, G.

    2010-04-01

    The satellite-borne Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) has produced more than 20 images of NASA Space Shuttle main engine plumes in the lower thermosphere. These reveal atomic hydrogen and, by inference, water vapor transport over hemispherical-scale distances with speeds much faster than expected from models of thermospheric wind motions. Furthermore, the hydrogen plumes expand rapidly. We find rates that exceed the horizontal diffusion speed at nominal plume altitudes of 104-112 km. Kelley et al. (2009) have proposed a 2-D turbulence mechanism to explain the observed spreading rates (and rapid advection) of the plumes. But upon further investigation, we conclude that H atom diffusion can indeed account for the observed expansion rates by recognizing that vertical diffusion quickly conveys atoms to higher altitudes where horizontal diffusion is much more rapid. We also find evidence for H atom production directly during the Shuttle's main engine burn.

  18. What happened after the initial global spread of pandemic human influenza virus A (H1N1? A population genetics approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martinez-Hernandez Fernando

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Viral population evolution dynamics of influenza A is crucial for surveillance and control. In this paper we analyzed viral genetic features during the recent pandemic caused by the new influenza human virus A H1N1, using a conventional population genetics approach based on 4689 hemagglutinin (HA and neuraminidase (NA sequences available in GenBank submitted between March and December of 2009. This analysis showed several relevant aspects: a a scarce initial genetic variability within the viral isolates from some countries that increased along 2009 when influenza was dispersed around the world; b a worldwide virus polarized behavior identified when comparing paired countries, low differentiation and high gene flow were found in some pairs and high differentiation and moderate or scarce gene flow in others, independently of their geographical closeness, c lack of positive selection in HA and NA due to increase of the population size of virus variants, d HA and NA variants spread in a few months all over the world being identified in the same countries in different months along 2009, and e containment of viral variants in Mexico at the beginning of the outbreak, probably due to the control measures applied by the government.

  19. Exploring bounty and spread

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Rex

    2018-01-01

    indications of the consequences of this shift. The article builds on existing research in the cultural industries and 'the industrial information economy' (Benkler 2006) and seeks to provide knowledge on the im- pact of music streaming on the Danish market for recorded music. Central to this topic are new......This article analyses the structural effects of the transition from the sale of music in physical and digital form to the access-based business model of music streaming. The global music streaming market is currently maturing rapidly, and as early adap- tors, the Nordic countries provide early...

  20. How Is Mono Spread?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... How Is Mono Spread? Print My sister has mononucleosis. I drank out of her drink before we ... that I have mono now? – Kyle* Mono, or mononucleosis, is spread through direct contact with saliva. This ...

  1. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  2. Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffel, Ethan D.; Horton, Radley M.; de Sherbinin, Alex

    2018-01-01

    As a result of global increases in both temperature and specific humidity, heat stress is projected to intensify throughout the 21st century. Some of the regions most susceptible to dangerous heat and humidity combinations are also among the most densely populated. Consequently, there is the potential for widespread exposure to wet bulb temperatures that approach and in some cases exceed postulated theoretical limits of human tolerance by mid- to late-century. We project that by 2080 the relative frequency of present-day extreme wet bulb temperature events could rise by a factor of 100-250 (approximately double the frequency change projected for temperature alone) in the tropics and parts of the mid-latitudes, areas which are projected to contain approximately half the world’s population. In addition, population exposure to wet bulb temperatures that exceed recent deadly heat waves may increase by a factor of five to ten, with 150-750 million person-days of exposure to wet bulb temperatures above those seen in today’s most severe heat waves by 2070-2080. Under RCP 8.5, exposure to wet bulb temperatures above 35 °C—the theoretical limit for human tolerance—could exceed a million person-days per year by 2080. Limiting emissions to follow RCP 4.5 entirely eliminates exposure to that extreme threshold. Some of the most affected regions, especially Northeast India and coastal West Africa, currently have scarce cooling infrastructure, relatively low adaptive capacity, and rapidly growing populations. In the coming decades heat stress may prove to be one of the most widely experienced and directly dangerous aspects of climate change, posing a severe threat to human health, energy infrastructure, and outdoor activities ranging from agricultural production to military training.

  3. Initial spread of "1"3"7Cs from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant over the Japan continental shelf. A study using a high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lai, Z.; Chen, C.; Lin, H.; Shanghai Ocean Univ.; Beardsley, R.; Ji, R.; Shanghai Ocean Univ.; Sasaki, J.; Lin, J.

    2013-01-01

    The 11 March 2011 tsunami triggered by the M9 and M7.9 earthquakes off the Tohoku coast destroyed facilities at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) leading to a significant long-term flow of the radionuclide "1"3"7Cs into coastal waters. A high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model was first constructed to simulate the 11 March tsunami and coastal inundation. Based on the model's success in reproducing the observed tsunami and coastal inundation, model experiments were then conducted with differing grid resolution to assess the initial spread of "1"3"7Cs over the eastern shelf of Japan. The "1"3"7Cs was tracked as a conservative tracer (without radioactive decay) in the three-dimensional model flow field over the period of 26 March-31 August 2011. The results clearly show that for the same "1"3"7Cs discharge, the model-predicted spreading of "1"3"7Cs was sensitive not only to model resolution but also the FNPP seawall structure. A coarse-resolution (∝2 km) model simulation led to an overestimation of lateral diffusion and thus faster dispersion of "1"3"7Cs from the coast to the deep ocean, while advective processes played a more significant role when the model resolution at and around the FNPP was refined to ∝5 m. By resolving the pathways from the leaking source to the southern and northern discharge canals, the high-resolution model better predicted the "1"3"7Cs spreading in the inner shelf where in situ measurements were made at 30 km off the coast. The overestimation of "1"3"7Cs concentration near the coast is thought to be due to the omission of sedimentation and biogeochemical processes as well as uncertainties in the amount of "1"3"7Cs leaking from the source in the model. As a result, a biogeochemical module should be included in the model for more realistic simulations of the fate and spreading of "1"3"7Cs in the ocean.

  4. Initial spread of {sup 137}Cs from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant over the Japan continental shelf. A study using a high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lai, Z. [Sun Yat-Sen Univ., Guangzhou (China). School of Marine Sciences; Univ. of Massachusetts-Dartmouth, New Bedford, MA (United States). School for Marine Science and Technology; Key Laboratory of Marine Resources and Coastal Engineering in Guangdong Province, Guangzhou (China); Chen, C.; Lin, H. [Univ. of Massachusetts-Dartmouth, New Bedford, MA (United States). School for Marine Science and Technology; Shanghai Ocean Univ. (China). International Center for Marine Studies; Beardsley, R. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA (United States). Dept. of Physical Oceanography; Ji, R. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA (United States). Dept. of Biology; Shanghai Ocean Univ. (China). International Center for Marine Studies; Sasaki, J. [The Univ. of Tokyo, Kashiwa (Japan). Dept. of Socio-Cultural Environmental Studies; Lin, J. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA (United States). Dept. of Geology and Geophysics

    2013-07-01

    The 11 March 2011 tsunami triggered by the M9 and M7.9 earthquakes off the Tohoku coast destroyed facilities at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) leading to a significant long-term flow of the radionuclide {sup 137}Cs into coastal waters. A high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model was first constructed to simulate the 11 March tsunami and coastal inundation. Based on the model's success in reproducing the observed tsunami and coastal inundation, model experiments were then conducted with differing grid resolution to assess the initial spread of {sup 137}Cs over the eastern shelf of Japan. The {sup 137}Cs was tracked as a conservative tracer (without radioactive decay) in the three-dimensional model flow field over the period of 26 March-31 August 2011. The results clearly show that for the same {sup 137}Cs discharge, the model-predicted spreading of {sup 137}Cs was sensitive not only to model resolution but also the FNPP seawall structure. A coarse-resolution (∝2 km) model simulation led to an overestimation of lateral diffusion and thus faster dispersion of {sup 137}Cs from the coast to the deep ocean, while advective processes played a more significant role when the model resolution at and around the FNPP was refined to ∝5 m. By resolving the pathways from the leaking source to the southern and northern discharge canals, the high-resolution model better predicted the {sup 137}Cs spreading in the inner shelf where in situ measurements were made at 30 km off the coast. The overestimation of {sup 137}Cs concentration near the coast is thought to be due to the omission of sedimentation and biogeochemical processes as well as uncertainties in the amount of {sup 137}Cs leaking from the source in the model. As a result, a biogeochemical module should be included in the model for more realistic simulations of the fate and spreading of {sup 137}Cs in the ocean.

  5. Global spread and genetic variants of the two CYP9M10 haplotype forms associated with insecticide resistance in Culex quinquefasciatus Say.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itokawa, K; Komagata, O; Kasai, S; Kawada, H; Mwatele, C; Dida, G O; Njenga, S M; Mwandawiro, C; Tomita, T

    2013-09-01

    Insecticide resistance develops as a genetic factor (allele) conferring lower susceptibility to insecticides proliferates within a target insect population under strong positive selection. Intriguingly, a resistance allele pre-existing in a population often bears a series of further adaptive allelic variants through new mutations. This phenomenon occasionally results in replacement of the predominating resistance allele by fitter new derivatives, and consequently, development of greater resistance at the population level. The overexpression of the cytochrome P450 gene CYP9M10 is associated with pyrethroid resistance in the southern house mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus. Previously, we have found two genealogically related overexpressing CYP9M10 haplotypes, which differ in gene copy number (duplicated and non-duplicated). The duplicated haplotype was derived from the non-duplicated overproducer probably recently. In the present study, we investigated allelic series of CYP9M10 involved in three C. quinquefasciatus laboratory colonies recently collected from three different localities. Duplicated and non-duplicated overproducing haplotypes coexisted in African and Asian colonies indicating a global distribution of both haplotype lineages. The duplicated haplotypes both in the Asian and African colonies were associated with higher expression levels and stronger resistance than non-duplicated overproducing haplotypes. There were slight variation in expression level among the non-duplicated overproducing haplotypes. The nucleotide sequences in coding and upstream regions among members of this group also showed a little diversity. Non-duplicated overproducing haplotypes with relatively higher expression were genealogically closer to the duplicated haplotypes than the other non-duplicated overproducing haplotypes, suggesting multiple cis-acting mutations before duplication.

  6. Implications of the spatial dynamics of fire spread for the bistability of savanna and forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schertzer, E; Staver, A C; Levin, S A

    2015-01-01

    The role of fire in expanding the global distribution of savanna is well recognized. Empirical observations and modeling suggest that fire spread has a threshold response to fuel-layer continuity, which sets up a positive feedback that maintains savanna-forest bistability. However, modeling has so far failed to examine fire spread as a spatial process that interacts with vegetation. Here, we use simple, well-supported assumptions about fire spread as an infection process and its effects on trees to ask whether spatial dynamics qualitatively change the potential for savanna-forest bistability. We show that the spatial effects of fire spread are the fundamental reason that bistability is possible: because fire spread is an infection process, it exhibits a threshold response to fuel continuity followed by a rapid increase in fire size. Other ecological processes affecting fire spread may also contribute including temporal variability in demography or fire spread. Finally, including the potential for spatial aggregation increases the potential both for savanna-forest bistability and for savanna and forest to coexist in a landscape mosaic.

  7. Adoption of rapid diagnostic tests for the diagnosis of malaria, a preliminary analysis of the Global Fund program data, 2005 to 2010.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinkou Zhao

    Full Text Available The World Health Organization Guidelines for the Treatment of Malaria, in 2006 and 2010, recommend parasitological confirmation of malaria before commencing treatment. Although microscopy has been the mainstay of malaria diagnostics, the magnitude of diagnostic scale up required to follow the Guidelines suggests that rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs will be a large component. This study analyzes the adoption of rapid diagnostic testing in malaria programs supported by the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund, the leading international funder of malaria control globally.We analyzed, for the period 2005 to 2010, Global Fund programmatic data for 81 countries on the quantity of RDTs planned; actual quantities of RDTs and artemisinin-based combination treatments (ACTs procured in 2009 and 2010; RDT-related activities including RDTs distributed, RDTs used, total diagnostic tests including RDTs and microscopy performed, health facilities equipped with RDTs; personnel trained to perform rapid diagnostic malaria test; and grant budgets allocated to malaria diagnosis. In 2010, diagnosis accounted for 5.2% of malaria grant budget. From 2005 to 2010, the procurement plans include148 million RDTs through 96 malaria grants in 81 countries. Around 115 million parasitological tests, including RDTs, had reportedly been performed from 2005 to 2010. Over this period, 123,132 health facilities were equipped with RDTs and 137,140 health personnel had been trained to perform RDT examinations. In 2009 and 2010, 41 million RDTs and 136 million ACTs were purchased. The ratio of procured RDTs to ACTs was 0.26 in 2009 and 0.34 in 2010.Global Fund financing has enabled 81 malaria-endemic countries to adopt WHO guidelines by investing in RDTs for malaria diagnosis, thereby helping improve case management of acute febrile illness in children. However, roll-out of parasitological diagnosis lags behind the roll-out of ACT-based treatment, and will

  8. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  9. Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsberg, H.S.

    2002-01-01

    Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

  10. The spreading of "global state" in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Aparecida Guarnieri Ortigoza

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available Assiste-se cada vez mais à entrada de grandes redes de comércio integradas ao sistema de franquias no território brasileiro, o fast food tem se destacado pelo seu adiantado estágio de evoluçào no sentido de formatação e padronização das operações. O fast food é um sistem a capaz de criar imagens e códigos decifráveis por grupos, sugerindo e encadeando comportamentos, provocando de certa forma uma homogeneização do gosto em nível mundial. O horário dedicado às refeições é escasso e o fast food entra nessa conjuntura de um "novo tempo" no urbano. Essas alterações nas relações de produção nâo se dáo bruscamente, ao contrário, são reproduzidas através de inovações graduais e de maneira sutil, somente quando atingem um grau de amadurecimento é que essas mesmas relações perm item as mudanças. O fast food é um sistema de massa que atinge um mercado maior, passando por cima de costumes e tradições. O papel da mídia é muito importante nesse processo pois invade o cotidiano, num jogo de símbolos e signos, com significados pré-determinados. É pelo "lugar" que o "mundial" é empíricamente percebido. Nessa dinâmica, a homogeneização e a diferenciação ocorrem paralelamente

  11. Global spread and control of avian influenza

    Science.gov (United States)

    H5 and H7 high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) viruses emerge from the mutation of H5 and H7 low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses (LPAI) after circulation in terrestrial poultry for a few weeks to years. There have been 42 distinct HPAI epizootics since 1959. The largest being the H5N1 A/G...

  12. Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

    2012-08-01

    Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

  13. Rapid-response flood mapping during Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria by the Global Flood Partnership (GFP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, S.; Alfieri, L.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Coughlan, E.; Galantowicz, J. F.; Hong, Y.; Kettner, A.; Nghiem, S. V.; Prados, A. I.; Rudari, R.; Salamon, P.; Trigg, M.; Weerts, A.

    2017-12-01

    The Global Flood Partnership (GFP; https://gfp.jrc.ec.europa.eu) is a multi-disciplinary group of scientists, operational agencies and flood risk managers focused on developing efficient and effective global flood management tools. Launched in 2014, its aim is to establish a partnership for global flood forecasting, monitoring and impact assessment to strengthen preparedness and response and to reduce global disaster losses. International organizations, the private sector, national authorities, universities and research agencies contribute to the GFP on a voluntary basis and benefit from a global network focused on flood risk reduction. At the onset of Hurricane Harvey, GFP was `activated' using email requests via its mailing service. Soon after, flood inundation maps, based on remote sensing analysis and modeling, were shared by different agencies, institutions, and individuals. These products were disseminated, to varying degrees of effectiveness, to federal, state and local agencies via emails and data-sharing services. This generated a broad data-sharing network which was utilized at the early stages of Hurricane Irma's impact, just two weeks after Harvey. In this presentation, we will describe the extent and chronology of the GFP response to both Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. We will assess the potential usefulness of this effort for event managers in various types of organizations and discuss future improvements to be implemented.

  14. An accurate and rapid continuous wavelet dynamic time warping algorithm for unbalanced global mapping in nanopore sequencing

    KAUST Repository

    Han, Renmin; Li, Yu; Wang, Sheng; Gao, Xin

    2017-01-01

    Long-reads, point-of-care, and PCR-free are the promises brought by nanopore sequencing. Among various steps in nanopore data analysis, the global mapping between the raw electrical current signal sequence and the expected signal sequence from

  15. Waste Crime – Waste Risks: Gaps in Meeting the Global Waste Challenge : A UNEP Rapid Response Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ieva Rucevska; Christian Nelleman; Nancy Isarin; Wanhua Yang; Ning Liu; Kelly Yu; Siv Sandnaes; Katie Olley; Howard McCann; Leila Devia; L.C.J. Bisschop (Lieselot); Denise Soesilo; Tina Schoolmeester; Rune Hendriksen; Rannveig Nilsen; Claire Eamer

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstractMore than ever, our future depends upon how we manage the future of our waste. As an integrated part of sustainable development, effective waste management can reduce our global footprint. Ignoring or neglecting the challenges of waste, however, can lead to significant health,

  16. Spread effects - methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Diffusion of technology, environmental effects and rebound effects are the principal effects from the funding of renewable energy and energy economising. It is difficult to estimate the impact of the spread effects both prior to the measures are implemented and after the measures are carried out. Statistical methods can be used to estimate the spread effects, but they are insecure and always need to be complemented with qualitative and subjective evaluations. It is more adequate to evaluate potential spread effects from market and market data surveillance for a selection of technologies and parties. Based on this information qualitative indicators for spread effects can be constructed and used both ex ante and ex post (ml)

  17. The VULCANO spreading programme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cognet, G.; Laffont, G.; Jegou, C.; Journeau, C.; Sudreau, F.; Pierre, J.; Ramacciotti, M. [CEA (Atomic Energy Commission), DRN/DER - Bat. 212, CEA Cadarache, 13108 St. Paul Lez Durance (France)

    1999-07-01

    Among the currently studied core-catcher projects, some of them suppose corium spreading before cooling, in particular the EPR (European Pressurized Reactor) core-catcher concept is based on mixing the corium with a special concrete, spreading the molten mixture on a large multi-layer surface cooled from the bottom and subsequently cooling by flooding with water. Therefore, melt spreading deserves intensive investigation in order to determine and quantify key phenomena which govern the stopping of spreading. In France, for some years, the Nuclear Reactor Division of the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA/DRN) has undertaken a large program to improve knowledge on corium behaviour and coolability. This program is based on experimental and theoretical investigations which are finally gathered in scenario and mechanistic computer codes. In this framework, the real material experimental programme, VULCANO, conducted within an European frame, is currently devoted to the study of corium spreading. In 1997 and 1998, several tests have been performed on dry corium spreading with various composition of melts. Although all the observed phenomena, in particular the differences between simulant and real material melts have not been yet totally explained, these tests have already provided a lot of information about: The behaviour of complex mixtures including refractory oxides, silica, iron oxides and in one case iron metal; Spreading progression, which was never stopped in any of these tests by a crust formation at the front; The structure of spread melts (porosity, crusts,...); Physico-chemical interaction between melt and the refractory substratum which was composed of zirconia bricks. (authors)

  18. The VULCANO spreading programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cognet, G.; Laffont, G.; Jegou, C.; Journeau, C.; Sudreau, F.; Pierre, J.; Ramacciotti, M.

    1999-01-01

    Among the currently studied core-catcher projects, some of them suppose corium spreading before cooling, in particular the EPR (European Pressurized Reactor) core-catcher concept is based on mixing the corium with a special concrete, spreading the molten mixture on a large multi-layer surface cooled from the bottom and subsequently cooling by flooding with water. Therefore, melt spreading deserves intensive investigation in order to determine and quantify key phenomena which govern the stopping of spreading. In France, for some years, the Nuclear Reactor Division of the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA/DRN) has undertaken a large program to improve knowledge on corium behaviour and coolability. This program is based on experimental and theoretical investigations which are finally gathered in scenario and mechanistic computer codes. In this framework, the real material experimental programme, VULCANO, conducted within an European frame, is currently devoted to the study of corium spreading. In 1997 and 1998, several tests have been performed on dry corium spreading with various composition of melts. Although all the observed phenomena, in particular the differences between simulant and real material melts have not been yet totally explained, these tests have already provided a lot of information about: The behaviour of complex mixtures including refractory oxides, silica, iron oxides and in one case iron metal; Spreading progression, which was never stopped in any of these tests by a crust formation at the front; The structure of spread melts (porosity, crusts,...); Physico-chemical interaction between melt and the refractory substratum which was composed of zirconia bricks. (authors)

  19. Rapid Globalization of Medical Device Clinical Development Programs in Japan - The Case of Drug-Eluting Stents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Madoka; Suzuki, Yuka; Tominaga, Toshiyoshi

    2018-02-23

    Delays in the introduction to the Japanese market of drug-eluting stents (DES) developed overseas (i.e., "device lag") decreased sharply between 2004 and 2012. The reduction accompanied a shift in clinical development from a succession pattern (initial product development and approval overseas followed by eventual entrance into the Japanese market) to parallel development (employing multiregional clinical trials (MRCTs)). Although resource-intensive in the short-term, MRCTs are proving to be an effective tool in simultaneous global product development. Creative study designs and the absence of significant ethnic differences in Japanese subjects regarding DES safety and efficacy and the pharmacokinetic behavior of their coating drugs propel this process. More general factors such as medical need and industry incentivization also encourage this shift. Physicians' preference for DES over other percutaneous coronary interventions, the expanding global DES market, and streamlined development and approval prospects each motivate industry to continue investing in DES product development. The efforts of various stakeholders were also integral to overcoming practical obstacles, and contributions by 'Harmonization by Doing' and a premarket collaboration initiative between the USA and Japan were particularly effective. Today, USA/Japan regulatory cooperation is routine, and Japan is now integrated into global medical device development. MRCTs including Japanese subjects, sites, and investigators are now commonplace.

  20. Rapid characterisation of vegetation structure to predict refugia and climate change impacts across a global biodiversity hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonius G T Schut

    Full Text Available Identification of refugia is an increasingly important adaptation strategy in conservation planning under rapid anthropogenic climate change. Granite outcrops (GOs provide extraordinary diversity, including a wide range of taxa, vegetation types and habitats in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR. However, poor characterization of GOs limits the capacity of conservation planning for refugia under climate change. A novel means for the rapid identification of potential refugia is presented, based on the assessment of local-scale environment and vegetation structure in a wider region. This approach was tested on GOs across the SWAFR. Airborne discrete return Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR data and Red Green and Blue (RGB imagery were acquired. Vertical vegetation profiles were used to derive 54 structural classes. Structural vegetation types were described in three areas for supervised classification of a further 13 GOs across the region. Habitat descriptions based on 494 vegetation plots on and around these GOs were used to quantify relationships between environmental variables, ground cover and canopy height. The vegetation surrounding GOs is strongly related to structural vegetation types (Kappa = 0.8 and to its spatial context. Water gaining sites around GOs are characterized by taller and denser vegetation in all areas. The strong relationship between rainfall, soil-depth, and vegetation structure (R(2 of 0.8-0.9 allowed comparisons of vegetation structure between current and future climate. Significant shifts in vegetation structural types were predicted and mapped for future climates. Water gaining areas below granite outcrops were identified as important putative refugia. A reduction in rainfall may be offset by the occurrence of deeper soil elsewhere on the outcrop. However, climate change interactions with fire and water table declines may render our conclusions conservative. The LiDAR-based mapping approach presented

  1. The Rapid Disaster Evaluation System (RaDES): A Plan to Improve Global Disaster Response by Privatizing the Assessment Component.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iserson, Kenneth V

    2017-09-01

    Emergency medicine personnel frequently respond to major disasters. They expect to have an effective and efficient management system to elegantly allocate available resources. Despite claims to the contrary, experience demonstrates this rarely occurs. This article describes privatizing disaster assessment using a single-purposed, accountable, and well-trained organization. The goal is to achieve elegant disaster assessment, rather than repeatedly exhorting existing groups to do it. The Rapid Disaster Evaluation System (RaDES) would quickly and efficiently assess a postdisaster population's needs. It would use an accountable nongovernmental agency's teams with maximal training, mobility, and flexibility. Designed to augment the Inter-Agency Standing Committee's 2015 Emergency Response Preparedness Plan, RaDES would provide the initial information needed to avoid haphazard and overlapping disaster responses. Rapidly deployed teams would gather information from multiple sources and continually communicate those findings to their base, which would then disseminate them to disaster coordinators in a concise, coherent, and transparent way. The RaDES concept represents an elegant, minimally bureaucratic, and effective rapid response to major disasters. However, its implementation faces logistical, funding, and political obstacles. Developing and maintaining RaDES would require significant funding and political commitment to coordinate the numerous agencies that claim to be performing the same tasks. Although simulations can demonstrate efficacy and deficiencies, only field tests will demonstrate RaDES' power to improve interagency coordination and decrease the cost of major disaster response. At the least, the RaDES concept should serve as a model for discussing how to practicably improve our current chaotic disaster responses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Rapid dating of recent sediments in Loch Ness. Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometric measurements of global fallout plutonium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ketterer, Michael E.; Hafer, Kevin M.; Jones, Vivienne J.; Appleby, Peter G.

    2004-01-01

    The 239+240 Pu activity profile is determined for a sediment core collected from 170-m depth at Loch Ness, Scotland. These measurements use magnetic sector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry for rapid determination of Pu activities and 240 Pu/ 239 Pu atom ratios. A 239+240 Pu detection limit of 0.1 Bq/kg is obtained for 2 g of acid-leached sediment; 242 Pu is used as a spike isotope. The Pu activity profile exhibits a maximum of 42.7±0.3 Bq/kg 239+240 Pu in the 9-10-cm depth interval. The position of this maximum coincides with peaks in the 241 Am and 137 Cs activity profiles. These peak activities are ascribed to the 1963/1964 peak fallout from atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons. The 240 Pu/ 239 Pu atom ratios are in the range 0.15-0.20, in agreement with the expected range of 0.166-0.194 for Northern Hemisphere fallout, and do not suggest the presence of other contributing sources. This study demonstrates that ICPMS has considerable potential for rapid determination of the chronology of post-1950 sediments, and also for validating 210 Pb dates where chronologies over longer time-scales are needed

  3. Rapid dating of recent sediments in Loch Ness. Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometric measurements of global fallout plutonium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ketterer, Michael E.; Hafer, Kevin M. [Department of Chemistry, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011-5698 (United States); Jones, Vivienne J. [Environmental Change Research Centre, University College London, 26 Bedford Way, London WC1H 0AP (United Kingdom); Appleby, Peter G. [Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool, P.O. Box 147, Liverpool L69 3BX (United Kingdom)

    2004-04-25

    The {sup 239+240}Pu activity profile is determined for a sediment core collected from 170-m depth at Loch Ness, Scotland. These measurements use magnetic sector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry for rapid determination of Pu activities and {sup 240}Pu/{sup 239}Pu atom ratios. A {sup 239+240}Pu detection limit of 0.1 Bq/kg is obtained for 2 g of acid-leached sediment; {sup 242}Pu is used as a spike isotope. The Pu activity profile exhibits a maximum of 42.7{+-}0.3 Bq/kg {sup 239+240}Pu in the 9-10-cm depth interval. The position of this maximum coincides with peaks in the {sup 241}Am and {sup 137}Cs activity profiles. These peak activities are ascribed to the 1963/1964 peak fallout from atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons. The {sup 240}Pu/{sup 239}Pu atom ratios are in the range 0.15-0.20, in agreement with the expected range of 0.166-0.194 for Northern Hemisphere fallout, and do not suggest the presence of other contributing sources. This study demonstrates that ICPMS has considerable potential for rapid determination of the chronology of post-1950 sediments, and also for validating {sup 210}Pb dates where chronologies over longer time-scales are needed.

  4. Rapid diversification in Australia and two dispersals out of Australia in the globally distributed bee genus, Hylaeus (Colletidae: Hylaeinae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayaalp, Pelin; Schwarz, Michael P; Stevens, Mark I

    2013-03-01

    Hylaeus is the only globally distributed colletid bee genus, with subgeneric and species-level diversity highest in Australia. We used one mitochondrial and two nuclear genes to reconstruct a phylogeny using Bayesian analyses of this genus based on species from Australia, Asia, Africa, Europe, Hawai'i, the New World and New Zealand. Our results concord with a ca. 30Mya Hylaeus crown age inferred by earlier studies, and we show that Hylaeus originated in Australia. Our phylogeny indicates only two dispersal events out of Australia, both shortly after the initial diversification of extant taxa. One of these dispersals was into New Zealand with only a minor subsequent radiation, but the second dispersal out of Australia resulted in a world-wide distribution. This second dispersal and radiation event, combined with very extensive early radiation of Hyleaus in Australia, poses a conundrum: what kinds of biogeographical and ecological factors could simultaneously drive global dispersal, yet strongly constrain further successful migrations out of Australia when geographical barriers appear to be weak? We argue that for hylaeine bees movement into new niches and enemy-free spaces may have favoured initial dispersal events, but that subsequent dispersals would not have entailed the original benefits of new niche space. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Spread of Canine Flu

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2018-04-05

    Dr. Colin Parrish, a Professor of Virology at the College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, discusses the spread of influenza among dogs.  Created: 4/5/2018 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 4/5/2018.

  6. Rapid upslope shifts in New Guinean birds illustrate strong distributional responses of tropical montane species to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Benjamin G.; Class Freeman, Alexandra M.

    2014-01-01

    Temperate-zone species have responded to warming temperatures by shifting their distributions poleward and upslope. Thermal tolerance data suggests that tropical species may respond to warming temperatures even more strongly than temperate-zone species, but this prediction has yet to be tested. We addressed this data gap by conducting resurveys to measure distributional responses to temperature increases in the elevational limits of the avifaunas of two geographically and faunally independent New Guinean mountains, Mt. Karimui and Karkar Island, 47 and 44 y after they were originally surveyed. Although species richness is roughly five times greater on mainland Mt. Karimui than oceanic Karkar Island, distributional shifts at both sites were similar: upslope shifts averaged 113 m (Mt. Karimui) and 152 m (Karkar Island) for upper limits and 95 m (Mt. Karimui) and 123 m (Karkar Island) for lower limits. We incorporated these results into a metaanalysis to compare distributional responses of tropical species with those of temperate-zone species, finding that average upslope shifts in tropical montane species match local temperature increases significantly more closely than in temperate-zone montane species. That tropical species appear to be strong responders has global conservation implications and provides empirical support to hitherto untested models that predict widespread extinctions in upper-elevation tropical endemics with small ranges. PMID:24550460

  7. FACTORS INFLUENCING YIELD SPREADS OF THE MALAYSIAN BONDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norliza Ahmad

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaysian bond market is developing rapidly but not much is understood in terms of macroeconomic factors that could influence the yield spread of the Ringgit Malaysian denominated bonds. Based on a multifactor model, this paper examines the impact of four macroeconomic factors namely: Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI, Industry Production Index (IPI, Consumer Price Index (CPI and interest rates (IR on bond yield spread of the Malaysian Government Securities (MGS and Corporate Bonds (CBs for a period from January 2001 to December 2008. The findings support the expected hypotheses that CPI and IR are the major drivers that influence the changes in MGS yield spreads. However IPI and KLCI have weak and no influence on MGS yield spreads respectively Whilst IR, CPI and IPI have significant influence on the yield spreads of CB1, CB2 and CB3, KLCI has significant influence only on the CB1 yield spread but not on CB2 and CB3 yield spreads.

  8. Dogwood Anthracnose and its Spread in the South

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert L. Anderson; John L. Knighten; Keith Langdon; Floyd Hedrix; Ron Roncadori

    In the 15 years since it was first reported in the United States, dogwood anthracnose (caused by Discula destructive sp. nov.) has spread rapidly and caused serious losses among flowering dogwoods (Cornus florida L.), particularly in the South. Infection begins in leaves and spreads to twigs and branches, which dieback. Main-stem infections cause cankers, which kill...

  9. An accurate and rapid continuous wavelet dynamic time warping algorithm for unbalanced global mapping in nanopore sequencing

    KAUST Repository

    Han, Renmin

    2017-12-24

    Long-reads, point-of-care, and PCR-free are the promises brought by nanopore sequencing. Among various steps in nanopore data analysis, the global mapping between the raw electrical current signal sequence and the expected signal sequence from the pore model serves as the key building block to base calling, reads mapping, variant identification, and methylation detection. However, the ultra-long reads of nanopore sequencing and an order of magnitude difference in the sampling speeds of the two sequences make the classical dynamic time warping (DTW) and its variants infeasible to solve the problem. Here, we propose a novel multi-level DTW algorithm, cwDTW, based on continuous wavelet transforms with different scales of the two signal sequences. Our algorithm starts from low-resolution wavelet transforms of the two sequences, such that the transformed sequences are short and have similar sampling rates. Then the peaks and nadirs of the transformed sequences are extracted to form feature sequences with similar lengths, which can be easily mapped by the original DTW. Our algorithm then recursively projects the warping path from a lower-resolution level to a higher-resolution one by building a context-dependent boundary and enabling a constrained search for the warping path in the latter. Comprehensive experiments on two real nanopore datasets on human and on Pandoraea pnomenusa, as well as two benchmark datasets from previous studies, demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. In particular, cwDTW can almost always generate warping paths that are very close to the original DTW, which are remarkably more accurate than the state-of-the-art methods including FastDTW and PrunedDTW. Meanwhile, on the real nanopore datasets, cwDTW is about 440 times faster than FastDTW and 3000 times faster than the original DTW. Our program is available at https://github.com/realbigws/cwDTW.

  10. Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, C.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

  11. Turbulent forces within river plumes affect spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Atreyee

    2012-08-01

    When rivers drain into oceans through narrow mouths, hydraulic forces squeeze the river water into buoyant plumes that are clearly visible in satellite images. Worldwide, river plumes not only disperse freshwater, sediments, and nutrients but also spread pollutants and organisms from estuaries into the open ocean. In the United States, the Columbia River—the largest river by volume draining into the Pacific Ocean from North America—generates a plume at its mouth that transports juvenile salmon and other fish into the ocean. Clearly, the behavior and spread of river plumes, such as the Columbia River plume, affect the nation's fishing industry as well as the global economy.

  12. Combinatorics of spreads and parallelisms

    CERN Document Server

    Johnson, Norman

    2010-01-01

    Partitions of Vector Spaces Quasi-Subgeometry Partitions Finite Focal-SpreadsGeneralizing André SpreadsThe Going Up Construction for Focal-SpreadsSubgeometry Partitions Subgeometry and Quasi-Subgeometry Partitions Subgeometries from Focal-SpreadsExtended André SubgeometriesKantor's Flag-Transitive DesignsMaximal Additive Partial SpreadsSubplane Covered Nets and Baer Groups Partial Desarguesian t-Parallelisms Direct Products of Affine PlanesJha-Johnson SL(2,

  13. Spread spectrum image steganography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marvel, L M; Boncelet, C R; Retter, C T

    1999-01-01

    In this paper, we present a new method of digital steganography, entitled spread spectrum image steganography (SSIS). Steganography, which means "covered writing" in Greek, is the science of communicating in a hidden manner. Following a discussion of steganographic communication theory and review of existing techniques, the new method, SSIS, is introduced. This system hides and recovers a message of substantial length within digital imagery while maintaining the original image size and dynamic range. The hidden message can be recovered using appropriate keys without any knowledge of the original image. Image restoration, error-control coding, and techniques similar to spread spectrum are described, and the performance of the system is illustrated. A message embedded by this method can be in the form of text, imagery, or any other digital signal. Applications for such a data-hiding scheme include in-band captioning, covert communication, image tamperproofing, authentication, embedded control, and revision tracking.

  14. Regime-dependent determinants of Euro area sovereign CDS spreads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blommestein, H.J.; Eijffinger, Sylvester; Qian, Zongxin

    We study the determinants of sovereign CDS spreads of five Euro area countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. We find that global and/or European Monetary Union (EMU)-wide factors are the main drivers of changes in the sovereign CDS spreads in

  15. Use of ENVISAT ASAR Global Monitoring Mode to complement optical data in the mapping of rapid broad-scale flooding in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. O'Grady

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Envisat ASAR Global Monitoring Mode (GM data are used to produce maps of the extent of the flooding in Pakistan which are made available to the rapid response effort within 24 h of acquisition. The high temporal frequency and independence of the data from cloud-free skies makes GM data a viable tool for mapping flood waters during those periods where optical satellite data are unavailable, which may be crucial to rapid response disaster planning, where thousands of lives are affected. Image differencing techniques are used, with pre-flood baseline image backscatter values being deducted from target values to eliminate regions with a permanent flood-like radar response due to volume scattering and attenuation, and to highlight the low response caused by specular reflection by open flood water. The effect of local incidence angle on the received signal is mitigated by ensuring that the deducted image is acquired from the same orbit track as the target image. Poor separability of the water class with land in areas beyond the river channels is tackled using a region-growing algorithm which seeks threshold-conformance from seed pixels at the center of the river channels. The resultant mapped extents are tested against MODIS SWIR data where available, with encouraging results.

  16. Global environment and cogeneration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miyahara, Atsushi

    1992-01-01

    The environment problems on global scale have been highlighted in addition to the local problems due to the rapid increase of population, the increase of energy demand and so on. The global environment summit was held in Brazil. Now, global environment problems are the problems for mankind, and their importance seems to increase toward 21st century. In such circumstances, cogeneration can reduce carbon dioxide emission in addition to energy conservation, therefore, attention has been paid as the countermeasure for global environment. The background of global environment problems is explained. As to the effectiveness of cogeneration for global environment, the suitability of city gas to environment, energy conservation, the reduction of carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides emission are discussed. As for the state of spread of cogeneration, as of March, 1992, those of 2250 MW in terms of power generation capacity have been installed in Japan. It is forecast that cogeneration will increase hereafter. As the future systems of cogeneration, city and industry energy center conception, industrial repowering, multiple house cogeneration and fuel cells are described. (K.I.)

  17. Apoptosis Triggers Specific, Rapid, and Global mRNA Decay with 3′ Uridylated Intermediates Degraded by DIS3L2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marshall P. Thomas

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Apoptosis is a tightly coordinated cell death program that damages mitochondria, DNA, proteins, and membrane lipids. Little is known about the fate of RNA as cells die. Here, we show that mRNAs, but not noncoding RNAs, are rapidly and globally degraded during apoptosis. mRNA decay is triggered early in apoptosis, preceding membrane lipid scrambling, genomic DNA fragmentation, and apoptotic changes to translation initiation factors. mRNA decay depends on mitochondrial outer membrane permeabilization and is amplified by caspase activation. 3′ truncated mRNA decay intermediates with nontemplated uridylate-rich tails are generated during apoptosis. These tails are added by the terminal uridylyl transferases (TUTases ZCCHC6 and ZCCHC11, and the uridylated transcript intermediates are degraded by the 3′ to 5′ exonuclease DIS3L2. Knockdown of DIS3L2 or the TUTases inhibits apoptotic mRNA decay, translation arrest, and cell death, whereas DIS3L2 overexpression enhances cell death. Our results suggest that global mRNA decay is an overlooked hallmark of apoptosis.

  18. Turbulence Spreading into Linearly Stable Zone and Transport Scaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hahm, T.S.; Diamond, P.H.; Lin, Z.; Itoh, K.; Itoh, S.-I.

    2003-01-01

    We study the simplest problem of turbulence spreading corresponding to the spatio-temporal propagation of a patch of turbulence from a region where it is locally excited to a region of weaker excitation, or even local damping. A single model equation for the local turbulence intensity I(x, t) includes the effects of local linear growth and damping, spatially local nonlinear coupling to dissipation and spatial scattering of turbulence energy induced by nonlinear coupling. In the absence of dissipation, the front propagation into the linearly stable zone occurs with the property of rapid progression at small t, followed by slower subdiffusive progression at late times. The turbulence radial spreading into the linearly stable zone reduces the turbulent intensity in the linearly unstable zone, and introduces an additional dependence on the rho* is always equal to rho i/a to the turbulent intensity and the transport scaling. These are in broad, semi-quantitative agreements with a number of global gyrokinetic simulation results with zonal flows and without zonal flows. The front propagation stops when the radial flux of fluctuation energy from the linearly unstable region is balanced by local dissipation in the linearly stable region

  19. Free energy analysis of cell spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEvoy, Eóin; Deshpande, Vikram S; McGarry, Patrick

    2017-10-01

    In this study we present a steady-state adaptation of the thermodynamically motivated stress fiber (SF) model of Vigliotti et al. (2015). We implement this steady-state formulation in a non-local finite element setting where we also consider global conservation of the total number of cytoskeletal proteins within the cell, global conservation of the number of binding integrins on the cell membrane, and adhesion limiting ligand density on the substrate surface. We present a number of simulations of cell spreading in which we consider a limited subset of the possible deformed spread-states assumed by the cell in order to examine the hypothesis that free energy minimization drives the process of cell spreading. Simulations suggest that cell spreading can be viewed as a competition between (i) decreasing cytoskeletal free energy due to strain induced assembly of cytoskeletal proteins into contractile SFs, and (ii) increasing elastic free energy due to stretching of the mechanically passive components of the cell. The computed minimum free energy spread area is shown to be lower for a cell on a compliant substrate than on a rigid substrate. Furthermore, a low substrate ligand density is found to limit cell spreading. The predicted dependence of cell spread area on substrate stiffness and ligand density is in agreement with the experiments of Engler et al. (2003). We also simulate the experiments of Théry et al. (2006), whereby initially circular cells deform and adhere to "V-shaped" and "Y-shaped" ligand patches. Analysis of a number of different spread states reveals that deformed configurations with the lowest free energy exhibit a SF distribution that corresponds to experimental observations, i.e. a high concentration of highly aligned SFs occurs along free edges, with lower SF concentrations in the interior of the cell. In summary, the results of this study suggest that cell spreading is driven by free energy minimization based on a competition between decreasing

  20. Phase Transitions of an Epidemic Spreading Model in Small-World Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, Da-Yin; Gao, Ke

    2011-06-01

    We propose a modified susceptible-infected-refractory-susceptible (SIRS) model to investigate the global oscillations of the epidemic spreading in Watts—Strogatz (WS) small-world networks. It is found that when an individual immunity does not change or decays slowly in an immune period, the system can exhibit complex transition from an infecting stationary state to a large amplitude sustained oscillation or an absorbing state with no infection. When the immunity decays rapidly in the immune period, the transition to the global oscillation disappears and there is no oscillation. Furthermore, based on the spatio-temporal evolution patterns and the phase diagram, it is disclosed that a long immunity period takes an important role in the emergence of the global oscillation in small-world networks.

  1. Spreading convulsions, spreading depolarization and epileptogenesis in human cerebral cortex

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dreier, Jens P; Major, Sebastian; Pannek, Heinz-Wolfgang

    2012-01-01

    Spreading depolarization of cells in cerebral grey matter is characterized by massive ion translocation, neuronal swelling and large changes in direct current-coupled voltage recording. The near-complete sustained depolarization above the inactivation threshold for action potential generating...... stimulations. Eventually, epileptic field potentials were recorded during the period that had originally seen spreading depression of activity. Such spreading convulsions are characterized by epileptic field potentials on the final shoulder of the large slow potential change of spreading depolarization. We...

  2. The landscape genetics of infectious disease emergence and spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biek, Roman; Real, Leslie A

    2010-09-01

    The spread of parasites is inherently a spatial process often embedded in physically complex landscapes. It is therefore not surprising that infectious disease researchers are increasingly taking a landscape genetics perspective to elucidate mechanisms underlying basic ecological processes driving infectious disease dynamics and to understand the linkage between spatially dependent population processes and the geographic distribution of genetic variation within both hosts and parasites. The increasing availability of genetic information on hosts and parasites when coupled to their ecological interactions can lead to insights for predicting patterns of disease emergence, spread and control. Here, we review research progress in this area based on four different motivations for the application of landscape genetics approaches: (i) assessing the spatial organization of genetic variation in parasites as a function of environmental variability, (ii) using host population genetic structure as a means to parameterize ecological dynamics that indirectly influence parasite populations, for example, gene flow and movement pathways across heterogeneous landscapes and the concurrent transport of infectious agents, (iii) elucidating the temporal and spatial scales of disease processes and (iv) reconstructing and understanding infectious disease invasion. Throughout this review, we emphasize that landscape genetic principles are relevant to infection dynamics across a range of scales from within host dynamics to global geographic patterns and that they can also be applied to unconventional 'landscapes' such as heterogeneous contact networks underlying the spread of human and livestock diseases. We conclude by discussing some general considerations and problems for inferring epidemiological processes from genetic data and try to identify possible future directions and applications for this rapidly expanding field.

  3. Estimation of wave directional spreading

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Deo, M.C.; Gondane, D.S.; SanilKumar, V.

    One of the useful measures of waves directional spreading at a given location is the directional spreading parameter. This paper presents a new approach to arrive at its characteristic value using the computational technique of Artificial Neural...

  4. Social networks and spreading of epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Dafang; Brandau, Marian

    2004-05-01

    Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed social network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics (SIR) of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population of individuals may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveals that for H > 1, the global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily α of the individuals forming a social circle. For H = 1, a transition from a global to a local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses). The SIR-model can be extended by the inclusion of waiting times resulting in modified distribution function of the recovered.

  5. Illusory spreading of watercolor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devinck, Frédéric; Hardy, Joseph L; Delahunt, Peter B; Spillmann, Lothar; Werner, John S

    2006-05-04

    The watercolor effect (WCE) is a phenomenon of long-range color assimilation occurring when a dark chromatic contour delineating a figure is flanked on the inside by a brighter chromatic contour; the brighter color spreads into the entire enclosed area. Here, we determined the optimal chromatic parameters and the cone signals supporting the WCE. To that end, we quantified the effect of color assimilation using hue cancellation as a function of hue, colorimetric purity, and cone modulation of inducing contours. When the inner and outer contours had chromaticities that were in opposite directions in color space, a stronger WCE was obtained as compared with other color directions. Additionally, equal colorimetric purity between the outer and inner contours was necessary to obtain a large effect compared with conditions in which the contours differed in colorimetric purity. However, there was no further increase in the magnitude of the effect when the colorimetric purity increased beyond a value corresponding to an equal vector length between the inner and outer contours. Finally, L-M-cone-modulated WCE was perceptually stronger than S-cone-modulated WCE for our conditions. This last result demonstrates that both L-M-cone and S-cone pathways are important for watercolor spreading. Our data suggest that the WCE depends critically upon the particular spatiochromatic arrangement in the display, with the relative chromatic contrast between the inducing contours being particularly important.

  6. Hybrid spread spectrum radio system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Stephen F [London, TN; Dress, William B [Camas, WA

    2010-02-09

    Systems and methods are described for hybrid spread spectrum radio systems. A method, includes receiving a hybrid spread spectrum signal including: fast frequency hopping demodulating and direct sequence demodulating a direct sequence spread spectrum signal, wherein multiple frequency hops occur within a single data-bit time and each bit is represented by chip transmissions at multiple frequencies.

  7. A Rapid Global Effects Capability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    Comparison of Attitudes and Values Between West Point Cadets and College Students. Westminister , MD: Western Maryland College, as published in the...Comments by Mr. Christopher Ingraham, Senior Legislative Assistant, Congressman Jim Bridenstine. Washington D.C., 5 May 2016. Secure World

  8. Dryland responses to global change suggest the potential for rapid non-linear responses to some changes but resilience to others

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, S.; Ferrenberg, S.; Tucker, C.; Rutherford, W. A.; Wertin, T. M.; McHugh, T. A.; Morrissey, E.; Kuske, C.; Belnap, J.

    2017-12-01

    Drylands represent our planet's largest terrestrial biome, making up over 35% of Earth's land surface. In the context of this vast areal extent, it is no surprise that recent research suggests dryland inter-annual variability and responses to change have the potential to drive biogeochemical cycles and climate at the global-scale. Further, the data we do have suggest drylands can respond rapidly and non-linearly to change. Nevertheless, our understanding of the cross-system consistency of and mechanisms behind dryland responses to a changed environment remains relatively poor. This poor understanding hinders not only our larger understanding of terrestrial ecosystem function, but also our capacity to forecast future global biogeochemical cycles and climate. Here we present data from a series of Colorado Plateau manipulation experiments - including climate, land use, and nitrogen deposition manipulations - to explore how vascular plants, microbial communities, and biological soil crusts (a community of mosses, lichens, and/or cyanobacteria living in the interspace among vascular plants in arid and semiarid ecosystems worldwide) respond to a host of environmental changes. These responses include not only assessments of community composition, but of their function as well. We will explore photosynthesis, net soil CO2 exchange, soil carbon stocks and chemistry, albedo, and nutrient cycling. The experiments were begun with independent questions and cover a range of environmental change drivers and scientific approaches, but together offer a relatively holistic picture of how some drylands can change their structure and function in response to change. In particular, the data show very high ecosystem vulnerability to particular drivers, but surprising resilience to others, suggesting a multi-faceted response of these diverse systems.

  9. Red brome (Bromus rubens subsp. madritensis) in North America: Possible modes for early introductions, subsequent spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salo, L.F.

    2005-01-01

    Although invasions by exotic plants have increased dramatically as human travel and commerce have increased, few have been comprehensively described. Understanding the patterns of invasive species spread over space and time will help guide management activities and policy. Tracing the earliest appearances of an exotic plant reveals likely sites of introduction, paving the way for genetic studies to quantify founder events and identify potential source populations. Red brome (Bromus madritensis subsp. rubens) is a Mediterranean winter annual grass that has invaded even relatively undisturbed areas of western North America, where it threatens native plant communities. This study used herbarium records and contemporary published accounts to trace the early introductions and subsequent spread of red brome in western North America. The results challenge the most frequently cited sources describing the early history of this grass and suggest three possible modes for early introductions: the California Gold Rush and Central Valley wheat, southern California shipping, and northern California sheep. Subsequent periods of most rapid spread into new areas, from 1930 to 1942, and of greatest spread into new regions, during the past 50 years, coincide with warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation regimes, which are linked to increased winter precipitation in the southwestern USA and northern Mexico. Global environmental change, including increased atmospheric CO2 levels and N deposition, may be contributing to the success of red brome, relative to native species.

  10. Identifying influential spreaders in complex networks through local effective spreading paths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaojie; Zhang, Xue; Yi, Dongyun; Zhao, Chengli

    2017-05-01

    How to effectively identify a set of influential spreaders in complex networks is of great theoretical and practical value, which can help to inhibit the rapid spread of epidemics, promote the sales of products by word-of-mouth advertising, and so on. A naive strategy is to select the top ranked nodes as identified by some centrality indices, and other strategies are mainly based on greedy methods and heuristic methods. However, most of those approaches did not concern the connections between nodes. Usually, the distances between the selected spreaders are very close, leading to a serious overlapping of their influence. As a consequence, the global influence of the spreaders in networks will be greatly reduced, which largely restricts the performance of those methods. In this paper, a simple and efficient method is proposed to identify a set of discrete yet influential spreaders. By analyzing the spreading paths in the network, we present the concept of effective spreading paths and measure the influence of nodes via expectation calculation. The numerical analysis in undirected and directed networks all show that our proposed method outperforms many other centrality-based and heuristic benchmarks, especially in large-scale networks. Besides, experimental results on different spreading models and parameters demonstrates the stability and wide applicability of our method.

  11. Global science: the eruption of Krakatau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dörries, Matthias

    2003-01-01

    The eruption of the volcano Krakatau in the Netherlands East Indies (Indonesia) in 1883 had worldwide impact. This was perceived in the three quite different types of global propagation that occurred after the eruption: a rapid pressure wave, noticeable only to measuring instruments, followed a few hours later by the spread of the news of the event, succeeded by a slowly expanding optical phenomenon that lasted for a couple of years. Krakatau was the first natural catastrophe of global magnitude that was almost immediately recognized as such throughout the world, largely thanks to the recently installed worldwide telegraphic network.

  12. Global Genomic Epidemiology of Salmonella enterica Serovar Typhimurium DT104

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leekitcharoenphon, Pimlapas; Hendriksen, Rene S.; Le Hello, Simon

    2016-01-01

    It has been 30 years since the initial emergence and subsequent rapid global spread of multidrug-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium DT104 (MDR DT104). Nonetheless, its origin and transmission route have never been revealed. We used whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and temporally struc...

  13. Spreading of rock avalanches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamis, A.S.; Savage, S.G. [McGill Univ., Dept. of Civil Engineering, Montreal, Quebec (Canada)

    1985-07-01

    Landslides and rockfalls that initiate on a steep slope eventually come to rest after flowing for some runout distance on a flat. Rockfalls of very large masses have been observed to exhibit unexpectedly long runout distances. This problem becomes more significant as the development of resources in mountain regions becomes more intensive. As early as 1881, Albert Heim observed and described the Elm rockfall of Switzerland (quoted by as HsU). This rockfall produced a debris which moved more than 2 Km along a nearly horizontal valley floor and one of its branches surged up the side of the valley to a height of 100 m. From the deposit of the Elm and the eyewitnesses Heim concluded that the debris behaved as a flowing fluid rather than sliding solids. Davies, among others, suggested that the excessive runout distance is volume dependent and the larger the volume of the debris, the longer the relative travel distance. A summary of the numerous hypotheses which have been proposed to explain this puzzling phenomena were also presented by Davies. However, none of these have been completely satisfactory or generally accepted. A simple model of the flow and spreading of a finite mass of cohesionless granular material down incline has been developed as a part of the present preliminary investigation into the mechanics of rockfalls. (author)

  14. Spreading Depression, Spreading Depolarizations, and the Cerebral Vasculature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayata, Cenk; Lauritzen, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Spreading depression (SD) is a transient wave of near-complete neuronal and glial depolarization associated with massive transmembrane ionic and water shifts. It is evolutionarily conserved in the central nervous systems of a wide variety of species from locust to human. The depolarization spreads...

  15. FACTORS INFLUENCING YIELD SPREADS OF THE MALAYSIAN BONDS

    OpenAIRE

    Norliza Ahmad; Joriah Muhammad; Tajul Ariffin Masron

    2009-01-01

    Malaysian bond market is developing rapidly but not much is understood in terms of macroeconomic factors that could influence the yield spread of the Ringgit Malaysian denominated bonds. Based on a multifactor model, this paper examines the impact of four macroeconomic factors namely: Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI), Industry Production Index (IPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and interest rates (IR) on bond yield spread of the Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) and Corporate Bonds (CBs...

  16. Dynamics of cell area and force during spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brill-Karniely, Yifat; Nisenholz, Noam; Rajendran, Kavitha; Dang, Quynh; Krishnan, Ramaswamy; Zemel, Assaf

    2014-12-16

    Experiments on human pulmonary artery endothelial cells are presented to show that cell area and the force exerted on a substrate increase simultaneously, but with different rates during spreading; rapid-force increase systematically occurred several minutes past initial spreading. We examine this theoretically and present three complementary mechanisms that may accompany the development of lamellar stress during spreading and underlie the observed behavior. These include: 1), the dynamics of cytoskeleton assembly at the cell basis; 2), the strengthening of acto-myosin forces in response to the generated lamellar stresses; and 3), the passive strain-stiffening of the cytoskeleton. Copyright © 2014 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Heat transfer and fire spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hal E. Anderson

    1969-01-01

    Experimental testing of a mathematical model showed that radiant heat transfer accounted for no more than 40% of total heat flux required to maintain rate of spread. A reasonable prediction of spread was possible by assuming a horizontal convective heat transfer coefficient when certain fuel and flame characteristics were known. Fuel particle size had a linear relation...

  18. On entanglement spreading from holography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mezei, Márk [Princeton Center for Theoretical Science, Princeton University,Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States)

    2017-05-11

    A global quench is an interesting setting where we can study thermalization of subsystems in a pure state. We investigate entanglement entropy (EE) growth in global quenches in holographic field theories and relate some of its aspects to quantities characterizing chaos. More specifically we obtain four key results: We prove holographic bounds on the entanglement velocity v{sub E} and the butterfly effect speed v{sub B} that arises in the study of chaos. We obtain the EE as a function of time for large spherical entangling surfaces analytically. We show that the EE is insensitive to the details of the initial state or quench protocol. In a thermofield double state we determine analytically the two-sided mutual information between two large concentric spheres separated in time. We derive a bound on the rate of growth of EE for arbitrary shapes, and develop an expansion for EE at early times. In a companion paper https://arxiv.org/abs/1608.05101, these results are put in the broader context of EE growth in chaotic systems: we relate EE growth to the chaotic spreading of operators, derive bounds on EE at a given time, and compare the holographic results to spin chain numerics and toy models. In this paper, we perform holographic calculations that provide the basis of arguments presented in that paper. We prove holographic bounds on the entanglement velocity v{sub E} and the butterfly effect speed v{sub B} that arises in the study of chaos. We obtain the EE as a function of time for large spherical entangling surfaces analytically. We show that the EE is insensitive to the details of the initial state or quench protocol. In a thermofield double state we determine analytically the two-sided mutual information between two large concentric spheres separated in time. We derive a bound on the rate of growth of EE for arbitrary shapes, and develop an expansion for EE at early times.

  19. The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael; Xu, Xin-Jian

    2012-03-01

    We explore the impact of awareness on epidemic spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. Using a network mean-field approach, a mathematical model for epidemic spreading with awareness reactions is proposed and analyzed. We focus on the role of three forms of awareness including local, global, and contact awareness. By theoretical analysis and simulation, we show that the global awareness cannot decrease the likelihood of an epidemic outbreak while both the local awareness and the contact awareness can. Also, the influence degree of the local awareness on disease dynamics is closely related with the contact awareness.

  20. Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fierro, Annalisa; Liccardo, Antonella

    2013-01-01

    Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the "thought contagion" among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1) epidemic outbreak in Italy during the 2009/2010 season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI). We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious diseases.

  1. Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annalisa Fierro

    Full Text Available Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the "thought contagion" among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1 epidemic outbreak in Italy during the 2009/2010 season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI. We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious

  2. Spreading gossip in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, Pedro G.; da Silva, Luciano R.; Andrade, José S., Jr.; Herrmann, Hans J.

    2007-09-01

    We study a simple model of information propagation in social networks, where two quantities are introduced: the spread factor, which measures the average maximal reachability of the neighbors of a given node that interchange information among each other, and the spreading time needed for the information to reach such a fraction of nodes. When the information refers to a particular node at which both quantities are measured, the model can be taken as a model for gossip propagation. In this context, we apply the model to real empirical networks of social acquaintances and compare the underlying spreading dynamics with different types of scale-free and small-world networks. We find that the number of friendship connections strongly influences the probability of being gossiped. Finally, we discuss how the spread factor is able to be applied to other situations.

  3. Spread effects - methodology; Spredningseffekter - metodegrunnlag

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    Diffusion of technology, environmental effects and rebound effects are the principal effects from the funding of renewable energy and energy economising. It is difficult to estimate the impact of the spread effects both prior to the measures are implemented and after the measures are carried out. Statistical methods can be used to estimate the spread effects, but they are insecure and always need to be complemented with qualitative and subjective evaluations. It is more adequate to evaluate potential spread effects from market and market data surveillance for a selection of technologies and parties. Based on this information qualitative indicators for spread effects can be constructed and used both ex ante and ex post (ml)

  4. Spreading gossip in social networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, Pedro G; da Silva, Luciano R; Andrade, José S; Herrmann, Hans J

    2007-09-01

    We study a simple model of information propagation in social networks, where two quantities are introduced: the spread factor, which measures the average maximal reachability of the neighbors of a given node that interchange information among each other, and the spreading time needed for the information to reach such a fraction of nodes. When the information refers to a particular node at which both quantities are measured, the model can be taken as a model for gossip propagation. In this context, we apply the model to real empirical networks of social acquaintances and compare the underlying spreading dynamics with different types of scale-free and small-world networks. We find that the number of friendship connections strongly influences the probability of being gossiped. Finally, we discuss how the spread factor is able to be applied to other situations.

  5. Avian Influenza spread and transmission dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourouiba, Lydia; Gourley, Stephen A.; Liu, Rongsong; Takekawa, John Y.; Wu, Jianhong; Chen, Dongmei; Moulin, Bernard; Wu, Jianhong

    2015-01-01

    The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of type A of subtype H5N1 has been a serious threat to global public health. Understanding the roles of various (migratory, wild, poultry) bird species in the transmission of these viruses is critical for designing and implementing effective control and intervention measures. Developing appropriate models and mathematical techniques to understand these roles and to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies have been a challenge. Recent development of the global health surveillance (especially satellite tracking and GIS techniques) and the mathematical theory of dynamical systems combined have gradually shown the promise of some cutting-edge methodologies and techniques in mathematical biology to meet this challenge.

  6. Colonic motility and enema spreading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardy, J.G.; Wood, E.; Clark, A.G.; Reynolds, J.R.; Queen's Medical Centre, Nottingham

    1986-01-01

    Radiolabelled enema solution was administered to eight healthy subjects, both in fasted and fed states. Enema spreading was monitored over a 4-h period using gamma scintigraphy and colonic motility was recorded simultaneously using a pressure sensitive radiotelemetry capsule. The rate and extent of enema dispersion were unaffected by eating. Spreading could be correlated with colonic motility and was inhibited by aboral propulsion of the colonic contents. (orig.)

  7. REGIME SWITCHING DETERMINANTS OF SOVEREIGN CDS SPREADS: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umurcan Polat

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it is assessed the main determinants of sovereign CDS spreads in Turkey from January 2006 to December 2015. Before delving into the nonlinear Markov regime-switching model estimation, a conventional one-state linear model is estimated answering to what extent the sovereign credit risk is affected in between global and country-specific market variables and by credit ratings announcement changes. In broad strokes, the regime-switching analysis reveals that among domestic variables, it is the foreign exchange rate that affects the sovereign credit risk more in more volatile periods and among global variables, the indicators standing for global volatility risk premiums and international liquidity primarily influence the changes in the sovereign CDS spread in turbulent regimes whereas proxies for global risk free rate are significant more in tranquil regimes.

  8. Process contributions to the intermodel spread in amplified Arctic warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeke, R.; Taylor, P. C.

    2016-12-01

    The Arctic is warming at a rate more than twice the global average. This robust climate system response to an external forcing is referred to as Arctic Amplification (AA). While Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate models simulate AA, the largest intermodel spread in projected warming is also found in the Arctic. Quantifying the amount of polar warming relative to global warming influences how society adapts to climate change; a 2°C increase in global mean temperature would result in a polar warming between 4-8°C according to the intermodel spread in CMIP5 simulations. A trove of previous work has considered AA diagnostically using variations in the surface energy budget to attribute the intermodel spread in AA to an assortment of feedbacks—surface albedo, cloud, surface turbulent flux, and atmospheric and oceanic energy transport. We consider a systems-thinking approach treating AA as a process that evolves over time. We hypothesize that two specific components of the AA process are most important and influence the intermodel spread. (1) The inability of the Arctic system to effectively remove excess heat sourced from natural variability. The change in the efficiency of the `Arctic air conditioner' is thought to be due to thinner and less extensive sea ice and the resulting ice albedo feedback. (2) The process through which energy is stored in the ocean and exchanged with the atmosphere within the context of the sea ice annual cycle is also important. This study uses CMIP5 simulations from the historical and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway; an emission scenario with forcing increasing to 8.5 W m-2 by 2100) to analyze how the AA process operates in present and future climate. The intermodel spread in these processes and the influence on the spread in AA are discussed. This approach identifies models that more realistically simulate the AA process and will aid in narrowing intermodel spread in Arctic surface temperature

  9. Spreading dynamics in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Sen; Makse, Hernán A.

    2013-12-01

    Searching for influential spreaders in complex networks is an issue of great significance for applications across various domains, ranging from epidemic control, innovation diffusion, viral marketing, and social movement to idea propagation. In this paper, we first display some of the most important theoretical models that describe spreading processes, and then discuss the problem of locating both the individual and multiple influential spreaders respectively. Recent approaches in these two topics are presented. For the identification of privileged single spreaders, we summarize several widely used centralities, such as degree, betweenness centrality, PageRank, k-shell, etc. We investigate the empirical diffusion data in a large scale online social community—LiveJournal. With this extensive dataset, we find that various measures can convey very distinct information of nodes. Of all the users in the LiveJournal social network, only a small fraction of them are involved in spreading. For the spreading processes in LiveJournal, while degree can locate nodes participating in information diffusion with higher probability, k-shell is more effective in finding nodes with a large influence. Our results should provide useful information for designing efficient spreading strategies in reality.

  10. Spreading dynamics in complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pei, Sen; Makse, Hernán A

    2013-01-01

    Searching for influential spreaders in complex networks is an issue of great significance for applications across various domains, ranging from epidemic control, innovation diffusion, viral marketing, and social movement to idea propagation. In this paper, we first display some of the most important theoretical models that describe spreading processes, and then discuss the problem of locating both the individual and multiple influential spreaders respectively. Recent approaches in these two topics are presented. For the identification of privileged single spreaders, we summarize several widely used centralities, such as degree, betweenness centrality, PageRank, k-shell, etc. We investigate the empirical diffusion data in a large scale online social community—LiveJournal. With this extensive dataset, we find that various measures can convey very distinct information of nodes. Of all the users in the LiveJournal social network, only a small fraction of them are involved in spreading. For the spreading processes in LiveJournal, while degree can locate nodes participating in information diffusion with higher probability, k-shell is more effective in finding nodes with a large influence. Our results should provide useful information for designing efficient spreading strategies in reality. (paper)

  11. Dual polarized, heat spreading rectenna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epp, Larry W. (Inventor); Khan, Abdur R. (Inventor); Smith, R. Peter (Inventor); Smith, Hugh K. (Inventor)

    1999-01-01

    An aperture coupled patch splits energy from two different polarization components to different locations to spread heat. In addition, there is no physical electrical connection between the slot, patch and circuitry. The circuitry is located under a ground plane which shields against harmonic radiation back to the RF source.

  12. Understanding the spreading patterns of mobile phone viruses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Pu; Gonzalez, Marta; Hidalgo, Cesar; Barabasi, Albert-Laszlo

    2009-03-01

    Mobile viruses are little more than a nuisance today, but given our increased reliance on wireless communication, in the near future they could pose more risk than their PC based counterparts. Despite of the more than three hundred mobile viruses known so far, little is known about their spreading pattern, partly due to a lack of data on the communication and travel patterns of mobile phone users. Starting from the traffic and the communication pattern of six million mobile phone users, we model the vulnerability of mobile communications against potential virus outbreaks. We show that viruses exploiting Bluetooth and multimedia messaging services (MMS) follow markedly different spreading patterns. The Bluetooth virus can reach all susceptible handsets, but spreads relatively slowly, as its spread is driven by human mobility. In contrast, an MMS virus can spread rapidly, but because the underlying social network is fragmented, it can reach only a small fraction of all susceptible users. This difference affects both their spreading rate, the number of infected users, as well as the defense measures one needs to take to protect the system against potential viral outbreak.

  13. Spreading dynamics of 2D dipolar Langmuir monolayer phases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinig, P; Wurlitzer, S; Fischer, Th M

    2004-07-01

    We study the spreading of a liquid 2D dipolar droplet in a Langmuir monolayer. Interfacial tensions (line tensions) and microscopic contact angles depend on the scale on which they are probed and obey a scaling law. Assuming rapid equilibration of the microscopic contact angle and ideal slippage of the 2D solid/liquid and solid/gas boundary, the driving force of spreading is merely expressed by the shape-dependent long-range interaction integrals. We obtain good agreement between experiment and numerical simulations using this theory.

  14. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Larsen, Marcus M.; Bharati, Pratyush

    2013-01-01

    This article examines antecedents and performance implications of global delivery models (GDMs) in global business services. GDMs require geographically distributed operations to exploit both proximity to clients and time-zone spread for efficient service delivery. We propose and empirically show...

  15. Globalization and democracy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DEEPAK NAYYAR

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACTThe gathering momentum of globalization in the world economy has coincided with the spread of political democracy across countries. Economies have become global. But politics remains national. This essay explores the relationship between globalization and democracy, which is neither linear nor characterized by structural rigidities. It seeks to analyze how globalization might constrain degrees of freedom for nation states and space for democratic politics, and how political democracy within countries might exercise some checks and balances on markets and globalization. The essential argument is that the relationship between globalization and democracy is dialectical and does not conform to ideological caricatures.

  16. Emergence and spreading potential of Zika virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Fajardo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Zika virus (ZIKV is an arthropod-borne Flavivirus (family Flaviviridae closely related to dengue, yellow fever and West Nile viruses. ZIKV remained neglected, confined to enzootic transmission cycles in Africa and Asia, until the first significant outbreak was reported in Micronesia in 2007. Subsequent epidemics of growing incidence occurred in French Polynesia and other South Pacific Islands, and recently, in the Americas. The latter and currently ongoing outbreak of unprecedented incidence revealed the association of ZIKV infection with the occurrence of severe congenital malformations and neurological diseases, leading to a widespread concern about its potential to pose a global public health threat. Serological and molecular data suggest that the genetic and geographic diversification of ZIKV may be greatly underestimated. Here we discuss several ecological and epidemiological aspects, together with the evolutionary processes that may have driven the emergence and abrupt spread of ZIKV in the Americas.

  17. Retrospective analysis of EAB spread: understanding the effect of landscape pattern on invasion and propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susan J. Crocker; Greg C. Liknes; Dacia M. Meneguzzo

    2011-01-01

    Spread of emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, EAB) in the United States has been rapid and extensive. Nearly 10 years after its initial detection near Detroit, Michigan, EAB is now found in 15 states spanning a radius greater than 500 miles. While human activity has been central to facilitating the spread of EAB over long distances, the...

  18. Supply chains in global production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anatolii Mazaraki

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Analyzing the current processes of global sales and sales interaction over the past two decades shows that the world’s system of exchanges has undergone significant changes that have been caused by a multitude of factors. The formation of a complex model of global production, determined by the peculiarities of the transformation of individual economies’ growth models, the specifics of their industrialization and the forms of development of their national production business, its institutional and market-wise restructuring and the degree of inclusion in the system of international division of labor. The change in the level and depth of the specialization of individual countries in the field of production and sale of products, in turn, has accelerated the overcoming of economic distance (which is measured by the cost of transport and information services. Based on the above, namely, within the framework of forming a new model of global production, the issue of studying the role and value of supply chains in this model is made relevant. Aim and tasks. The purpose of the article is to study the modern transformation of supply chains within the global production system. The findings will allow to determine what exactly needs to be done in the direction of further redeveloping the regulatory tools of global supply chain management. Research results. The article presents the results of studying the transformation of supply chains’ role in global production. It is determined that taking into account the existing specificity of industrialization and fragmentation of national production, as well as the rapid spread of the results of scientific and technological progress in the world economy, there is a need for a more thorough study of this change. As a result of analyzing open source statistical data, a conclusion was reached regarding the transition from the competition of individual business entities to the competition of global

  19. Market Mobilities/Immobilities: Mutation, Path-Dependency, and the Spread of Charter School Policies in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Dan

    2017-01-01

    Over the past 25 years charter school policies have spread through the United States at a rapid pace. However, despite this rapid growth these policies have spread unevenly across the country with important variations in how charter school systems function in each state. Drawing on case studies in Michigan and Oregon, this article argues that…

  20. Impact of international and local conditions on sovereign bond spreads: International evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selma Izadi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effect of international and domestic factors on the sovereign bond spreads for 22 developed countries in North America, Europe and Pacific Rim regions. First, for all the regions the impact of global factors on the sovereign bond spreads is more intense than regional factors. Second, the findings confirm that for the bond spreads of each region over its domestic government bonds, the countries’ local fundamentals are better determinants of the spreads compared to the spread over US government bonds as a safe haven. Third, the influence of worldwide factors in the Eurozone compared to other regions bond spreads is less. Fourth, the relationship of the market sentiment and the investor risk aversion with the sovereign bond spreads of all regions is positive. Equity market volatility plays significant role in yield speads in international bond markets.

  1. Spreading of a granular droplet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clement, Eric; Sanchez, Ivan; Raynaud, Franck; Lanuza, Jose; Andreotti, Bruno; Aranson, Igor

    2008-03-01

    The influence of controlled vibrations on the granular rheology is investigated in a specifically designed experiment in which a granular film spreads under the action of horizontal vibrations. A nonlinear diffusion equation is derived theoretically that describes the evolution of the deposit shape. A self-similar parabolic shape (the``granular droplet'') and a spreading dynamics are predicted that both agree quantitatively with the experimental results. The theoretical analysis is used to extract effective friction coefficients between the base and the granular layer under sustained and controlled vibrations. A shear thickening regime characteristic of dense granular flows is evidenced at low vibration energy, both for glass beads and natural sand. Conversely, shear thinning is observed at high agitation.

  2. The Global and Small-scale Magnetic Fields of Fully Convective, Rapidly Spinning M Dwarf Pair GJ65 A and B

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kochukhov, Oleg; Lavail, Alexis [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala University, Box 516, Uppsala SE-75120 (Sweden)

    2017-01-20

    The nearby M dwarf binary GJ65 AB, also known as BL Cet and UV Cet, is a unique benchmark for investigation of dynamo-driven activity of low-mass stars. Magnetic activity of GJ65 was repeatedly assessed by indirect means, such as studies of flares, photometric variability, X-ray, and radio emission. Here, we present a direct analysis of large-scale and local surface magnetic fields in both components. Interpreting high-resolution circular polarization spectra (sensitive to a large-scale field geometry) we uncovered a remarkable difference of the global stellar field topologies. Despite nearly identical masses and rotation rates, the secondary exhibits an axisymmetric, dipolar-like global field with an average strength of 1.3 kG while the primary has a much weaker, more complex, and non-axisymmetric 0.3 kG field. On the other hand, an analysis of the differential Zeeman intensification (sensitive to the total magnetic flux) shows the two stars having similar magnetic fluxes of 5.2 and 6.7 kG for GJ65 A and B, respectively, although there is evidence that the field strength distribution in GJ65 B is shifted toward a higher field strength compared to GJ65 A. Based on these complementary magnetic field diagnostic results, we suggest that the dissimilar radio and X-ray variability of GJ65 A and B is linked to their different global magnetic field topologies. However, this difference appears to be restricted to the upper atmospheric layers but does not encompass the bulk of the stars and has no influence on the fundamental stellar properties.

  3. Drop Spreading with Random Viscosity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Feng; Jensen, Oliver

    2016-11-01

    Airway mucus acts as a barrier to protect the lung. However as a biological material, its physical properties are known imperfectly and can be spatially heterogeneous. In this study we assess the impact of these uncertainties on the rate of spreading of a drop (representing an inhaled aerosol) over a mucus film. We model the film as Newtonian, having a viscosity that depends linearly on the concentration of a passive solute (a crude proxy for mucin proteins). Given an initial random solute (and hence viscosity) distribution, described as a Gaussian random field with a given correlation structure, we seek to quantify the uncertainties in outcomes as the drop spreads. Using lubrication theory, we describe the spreading of the drop in terms of a system of coupled nonlinear PDEs governing the evolution of film height and the vertically-averaged solute concentration. We perform Monte Carlo simulations to predict the variability in the drop centre location and width (1D) or area (2D). We show how simulation results are well described (at much lower computational cost) by a low-order model using a weak disorder expansion. Our results show for example how variability in the drop location is a non-monotonic function of the solute correlation length increases. Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

  4. Slip of Spreading Viscoplastic Droplets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jalaal, Maziyar; Balmforth, Neil J; Stoeber, Boris

    2015-11-10

    The spreading of axisymmetric viscoplastic droplets extruded slowly on glass surfaces is studied experimentally using shadowgraphy and swept-field confocal microscopy. The microscopy furnishes vertical profiles of the radial velocity using particle image velocimetry (PIV) with neutrally buoyant tracers seeded in the fluid. Experiments were conducted for two complex fluids: aqueous solutions of Carbopol and xanthan gum. On untreated glass surfaces, PIV demonstrates that both fluids experience a significant amount of effective slip. The experiments were repeated on glass that had been treated to feature positive surface charges, thereby promoting adhesion between the negatively charged polymeric constituents of the fluids and the glass surface. The Carbopol and xanthan gum droplets spread more slowly on the treated surface and to a smaller radial distance. PIV demonstrated that this reduced spreading was associated with a substantial reduction in slip. For Carbopol, the effective slip could be eliminated entirely to within the precision of the PIV measurements; the reduction in slip was less effective for xanthan gum, with a weak slip velocity remaining noticeable.

  5. Epidemic cholera in Latin America: spread and routes of transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guthmann, J P

    1995-12-01

    In the most recent epidemic of cholera in Latin America, nearly a million cases were reported and almost 9000 people died between January 1991 and December 1993. The epidemic spread rapidly from country to country, affecting in three years all the countries of Latin America except Uruguay and the Caribbean. Case-control studies carried out in Peru showed a significant association between drinking water and risk of disease. Cholera was associated with the consumption of unwashed fruit and vegetables, with eating food from street vendors and with contaminated crabmeat transported in travellers' luggage. This article documents the spread of the epidemic and its routes of transmission and discusses whether the introduction of the epidemic to Peru and its subsequent spread throughout the continent could have been prevented.

  6. Navigate the Digital Rapids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, Julie; Davis, Vicki

    2010-01-01

    How can teachers teach digital citizenship when the digital landscape is changing so rapidly? How can teachers teach proper online social interactions when the students are outside their classroom and thus outside their control? Will encouraging students to engage in global collaborative environments land teachers in hot water? These are the…

  7. Information spread of emergency events: path searching on social networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Weihui; Hu, Hongzhi; Wu, Tunan; Dai, Yonghui

    2014-01-01

    Emergency has attracted global attentions of government and the public, and it will easily trigger a series of serious social problems if it is not supervised effectively in the dissemination process. In the Internet world, people communicate with each other and form various virtual communities based on social networks, which lead to a complex and fast information spread pattern of emergency events. This paper collects Internet data based on data acquisition and topic detection technology, analyzes the process of information spread on social networks, describes the diffusions and impacts of that information from the perspective of random graph, and finally seeks the key paths through an improved IBF algorithm. Application cases have shown that this algorithm can search the shortest spread paths efficiently, which may help us to guide and control the information dissemination of emergency events on early warning.

  8. Information Spread of Emergency Events: Path Searching on Social Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weihui Dai

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Emergency has attracted global attentions of government and the public, and it will easily trigger a series of serious social problems if it is not supervised effectively in the dissemination process. In the Internet world, people communicate with each other and form various virtual communities based on social networks, which lead to a complex and fast information spread pattern of emergency events. This paper collects Internet data based on data acquisition and topic detection technology, analyzes the process of information spread on social networks, describes the diffusions and impacts of that information from the perspective of random graph, and finally seeks the key paths through an improved IBF algorithm. Application cases have shown that this algorithm can search the shortest spread paths efficiently, which may help us to guide and control the information dissemination of emergency events on early warning.

  9. The spread and effect of HIV-1 infection in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buvé, Anne; Bishikwabo-Nsarhaza, Kizito; Mutangadura, Gladys

    2002-06-08

    Africa is the continent most severely affected by the global HIV-1 epidemic, with east and southern Africa in general more severely affected than west and central Africa. Differences in the spread of the epidemic can be accounted for by a complex interplay of sexual behaviour and biological factors that affect the probability of HIV-1 transmission per sex act. Sexual behaviour patterns are determined by cultural and socioeconomic contexts. In sub-Saharan Africa, some traditions and socioeconomic developments have contributed to the extensive spread of HIV-1 infection, including the subordinate position of women, impoverishment and decline of social services, rapid urbanisation and modernisation, and wars and conflicts. Populations in many parts of Africa are becoming trapped in a vicious circle as the HIV-1 epidemic leads to high mortality rates in young and economically productive age groups, and thus leads to further impoverishment. Interventions to control HIV-1 should not only target individuals, but also aim to change those aspects of cultural and socioeconomic context that increase the vulnerability to HIV-1 of people and communities.

  10. Reverse preferential spread in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toyoizumi, Hiroshi; Tani, Seiichi; Miyoshi, Naoto; Okamoto, Yoshio

    2012-08-01

    Large-degree nodes may have a larger influence on the network, but they can be bottlenecks for spreading information since spreading attempts tend to concentrate on these nodes and become redundant. We discuss that the reverse preferential spread (distributing information inversely proportional to the degree of the receiving node) has an advantage over other spread mechanisms. In large uncorrelated networks, we show that the mean number of nodes that receive information under the reverse preferential spread is an upper bound among any other weight-based spread mechanisms, and this upper bound is indeed a logistic growth independent of the degree distribution.

  11. Recurrent bridgehead effects accelerate global alien ant spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleo Bertelsmeier; Sébastien Ollier; Andrew M. Liebhold; Eckehard G. Brockerhoff; Darren Ward; Laurent Keller

    2018-01-01

    Biological invasions are a major threat to biological diversity, agriculture, and human health. To predict and prevent new invasions, it is crucial to develop a better understanding of the drivers of the invasion process. The analysis of 4,533 border interception events revealed that at least 51 different alien ant species were intercepted at US ports over a period of...

  12. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J.; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G.; Lepej, Snjezana J.; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C.; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R.; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

    2016-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti

  13. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Magiorkinis (Gkikas); K. Angelis (Konstantinos); I. Mamais (Ioannis); Katzourakis, A. (Aris); A. Hatzakis (Angelos); J. Albert (Jan); Lawyer, G. (Glenn); O. Hamouda (Osamah); D. Struck (Daniel); J. Vercauteren (Jurgen); A. Wensing (Amj); I. Alexiev (Ivailo); B. Åsjö (Birgitta); C. Balotta (Claudia); Gomes, P. (Perpétua); R.J. Camacho (Ricardo Jorge); S. Coughlan (Suzie); A. Griskevicius (Algirdas); Z. Grossman (Zehava); Horban, A. (Anders); L.G. Kostrikis (Leondios); Lepej, S.J. (Snjezana J.); K. Liitsola (Kirsi); M. Linka (Marek); C. Nielsen; D. Otelea (Dan); R. Paredes (Roger); M. Poljak (Mario); E. Puchhammer-Stöckl (Elisabeth); J.C. Schmit; A. Sonnerborg (Anders); D. Stanekova (Danica); M. Stanojevic (Maja); Stylianou, D.C. (Dora C.); C.A.B. Boucher (Charles); Nikolopoulos, G. (Georgios); Vasylyeva, T. (Tetyana); Friedman, S.R. (Samuel R.); D.A.M.C. van de Vijver (David); G. Angarano (Guiseppe); M.L. Chaix (Marie Laure); A. de Luca (Andrea); K. Korn (Klaus); Loveday, C. (Clive); V. Soriano (Virtudes); S. Yerly (Sabine); M. Zazzi; A.M. Vandamme (Anne Mieke); D. Paraskevis (Dimitrios)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractHuman immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa

  14. Epidemic spreading on dual-structure networks with mobile agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Yiyang; Zhou, Yinzuo

    2017-02-01

    The rapid development of modern society continually transforms the social structure which leads to an increasingly distinct dual structure of higher population density in urban areas and lower density in rural areas. Such structure may induce distinctive spreading behavior of epidemics which does not happen in a single type structure. In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading of mobile agents on dual structure networks based on SIRS model. First, beyond the well known epidemic threshold for generic epidemic model that when the infection rate is below the threshold a pertinent infectious disease will die out, we find the other epidemic threshold which appears when the infection rate of a disease is relatively high. This feature of two thresholds for the SIRS model may lead to the elimination of infectious disease when social network has either high population density or low population density. Interestingly, however, we find that when a high density area is connected to a low density may cause persistent spreading of the infectious disease, even though the same disease will die out when it spreads in each single area. This phenomenon indicates the critical role of the connection between the two areas which could radically change the behavior of spreading dynamics. Our findings, therefore, provide new understanding of epidemiology pertinent to the characteristic modern social structure and have potential to develop controlling strategies accordingly.

  15. Plume spread and atmospheric stability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weber, R O [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    The horizontal spread of a plume in atmospheric dispersion can be described by the standard deviation of horizontal direction. The widely used Pasquill-Gifford classes of atmospheric stability have assigned typical values of the standard deviation of horizontal wind direction and of the lapse rate. A measured lapse rate can thus be used to estimate the standard deviation of wind direction. It is examined by means of a large dataset of fast wind measurements how good these estimates are. (author) 1 fig., 2 refs.

  16. Reprising the globalization dimensions of international health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labonté, Ronald

    2018-05-18

    Globalization is a fairly recent addition to the panoply of concepts describing the internationalization of health concerns. What distinguishes it from 'international health' or its newer morphing into 'global health' is a specific analytical concern with how globalization processes, past or present, but particularly since the start of our neoliberal era post-1980, is affecting health outcomes. Globalization processes influence health through multiple social pathways: from health systems and financing reforms to migration flows and internal displacement; via trade and investment treaties, labour market 'flexibilization', and the spread of unhealthy commodities; or through deploying human rights and environment protection treaties, and strengthening health diplomacy efforts, to create more equitable and sustainable global health outcomes. Globalization and Health was a pioneer in its focus on these critical facets of our health, well-being, and, indeed, planetary survival. In this editorial, the journal announces a re-focusing on this primary aim, announcing a number of new topic Sections and an expanded editorial capacity to ensure that submissions are 'on target' and processed rapidly, and that the journal continues to be on the leading edge of some of the most contentious and difficult health challenges confronting us.

  17. Sovereign bonds in developing countries: Drivers of issuance and spreads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea F. Presbitero

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the last decade there has been a new wave of sovereign bond issuances in Africa. What determines the ability of developing countries to issue bonds in international capital and what explains the spreads on these bonds? This paper examines these questions using a dataset that includes 105 developing countries during the period 1995–2014. We find that a country is more likely to issue a bond when, in comparison with non-issuing peers, it is larger in economic size, has higher per capita GDP, a lower public debt, and a more effective government. Spreads on sovereign bonds are lower for countries with strong external and fiscal positions, as well as robust economic growth and government effectiveness. We also find that primary spreads for the average Sub-Saharan African issuer are higher than in other regions. With regard to global factors, our results confirm the existing evidence that issuances are more likely during periods of global liquidity and high commodity prices, especially for Sub-Saharan African countries, and spreads are higher in periods of higher market volatility.

  18. The role of international travel in the worldwide spread of multiresistant Enterobacteriaceae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Bij, Akke K; Pitout, Johann D D

    2012-09-01

    From international tourists to war-displaced refugees, more people are on the move than ever before. This provides the opportunity for a variety of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria to be carried from one geographic location to another. The Enterobacteriaceae are among the most important causes of serious hospital-acquired and community-onset bacterial infections in humans, and resistance to antimicrobial agents in these bacteria has become an increasingly relevant problem. International travel and tourism are important modes for the acquisition and spread of antimicrobial-resistant Enterobacteriaceae, especially CTX-M-producing Escherichia coli. Infections with KPC-, VIM-, OXA-48- and NDM-producing Enterobacteriaceae in developed countries have been associated with visiting and being hospitalized in endemic areas such as the USA, Greece and Israel for KPCs, Greece for VIMs, Turkey for OXA-48, and the Indian subcontinent for NDMs. To combat the spread of antimicrobial-resistant Enterobacteriaceae, the French Healthcare Safety Advisory Committee recently issued national recommendations for screening and contact isolation precautions for patients transferred from, or hospitalized outside, France. For effective public and patient health interventions, it is important to understand the role of international travel in the spread of antimicrobial-resistant Enterobacteriaceae. We urgently need well-designed studies to evaluate the transmission potential and risks for colonization and infections due to multiresistant Enterobacteriaceae in travellers who have recently visited or have been hospitalized in endemic areas. The emergence of CTX-M-, KPC- and NDM-producing bacteria is a good example of the role that globalization plays in the rapid dissemination of new antibiotic resistance mechanisms.

  19. Population migration and the spread of types 1 and 2 human immunodeficiency viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, T C

    1994-03-29

    Over 14 million people are estimated to be infected with the human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV), with nearly three-fourths of the infected persons residing in developing countries. One factor responsible for dissemination of both HIV-1 and HIV-2 worldwide was the intense migration of individuals, from rural to urban centers with subsequent return migration and internationally due to civil wars, tourism, business purposes, and the drug trade. In sub-Saharan Africa, between 1960 and 1980, urban centers with more than 500,000 inhabitants increased from 3 to 28, and more than 75 military coups occurred in 30 countries. The result was a massive migration of rural inhabitants to urban centers concomitant with the spread of HIV-1 to large population centers. With the associated demographic, economic, and social changes, an epidemic of sexually transmitted diseases and HIV-1 was ignited. Migratory patterns were also responsible for the spread of endemic HIV-2 to neighboring West African countries and eventually to Europe, the Americans, and India. Although Southeast Asia was the last region in which HIV-1 was introduced, it has the greatest potential for rapid spread due to population density and inherent risk behaviors. Thus, the migration of poor, rural, and young sexually active individuals to urban centers coupled with large international movements of HIV-infected individuals played a prominent role in the dissemination of HIV globally. The economic recession has aggravated the transmission of HIV by directly increasing the population at risk through increased urban migration, disruption of rural families and cultural values, poverty, and prostitution and indirectly through a decrease in health care provision. Consequently, social and economic reform as well as sexual behavior education need to be intensified if HIV transmission is to be controlled.

  20. Coding-Spreading Tradeoff in CDMA Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bolas, Eduardo

    2002-01-01

    .... Comparing different combinations of coding and spreading with a traditional DS-CDMA, as defined in the IS-95 standard, allows the criteria to be defined for the best coding-spreading tradeoff in CDMA systems...

  1. Lexical Ambiguity: Making a Case against Spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Jennifer J.; Rogness, Neal T.; Fisher, Diane G.

    2012-01-01

    We argue for decreasing the use of the word "spread" when describing the statistical idea of dispersion or variability in introductory statistics courses. In addition, we argue for increasing the use of the word "variability" as a replacement for "spread."

  2. A Finsler geodesic spray paradigm for wildfire spread modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markvorsen, Steen

    2015-01-01

    represents the local fire templates. The ‘paradigm’ part of the present proposal is thus concerned with the corresponding shift of attention from the actual fire-lines to consider instead the geodesic spray - the ‘fire-particles’ - which together, side by side, mold the fire-lines at each instant of time...... and thence eventually constitute the local and global structure of the wildfire spread....

  3. RRR for NNN-a rapid research response for the Neglected Tropical Disease NGDO Network: a novel framework to challenges faced by the global programs targeting neglected tropical diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toledo, Chelsea E; Jacobson, Julie; Wainwright, Emily C; Ottesen, Eric A; Lammie, Patrick J

    2016-03-01

    While global programs targeting the control or elimination of five of the neglected tropical diseases (NTDs)-lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, soil-transmitted helminthiasis, schistosomiasis and trachoma-are well underway, they still face many operational challenges. Because of the urgency of 2020 program targets, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the U.S. Agency for International Development devised a novel rapid research response (RRR) framework to engage national programs, researchers, implementers and WHO in a Coalition for Operational Research on NTDs. After 2 years, this effort has succeeded as an important basis for the research response to programmatic challenges facing NTD programs. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  4. Bank Lending, Housing and Spreads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslam, Aqib; Santoro, Emiliano

    The framework presented in this paper takes its cue from recent financial events and attempts to develop a tractable framework for policy analysis of macro-linkages, in particular a first attempt at the integration of an independent profit-maximising banking sector that lends to and borrows from...... agents in the economy, and through which changes in the monetary policy rate by the central bank are transmitted. The inter-linkages between housing and the role of the banking sector in the transmission of monetary policy is emphasized. Two competing effects are highlighted: (i) a financial accelerator...... channel, due to the presence of collateralized borrowers, and (ii) a banking attenuator effect, which crucially arises from the spread in interest rates caused by the introduction of monopolistically competitive financial intermediaries. We show how the classical amplification mechanism explored in models...

  5. Effects of Evaporation/Condensation on Spreading and Contact Angle of a Volatile Liquid Drop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Nengli; Chao, David F.; Singh, Bhim S. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Effects of evaporation/condensation on spreading and contact angle were experimentally studied. A sessile drop of R-113 was tested at different vapor environments to determine the effects of evaporation/condensation on the evolution of contact diameter and contact angle of the drop. Condensation on the drop surface occurs at both the saturated and a nonsaturated vapor environments and promotes the spreading. When the drop is placed in the saturated vapor environment it tends to completely wetting and spreads rapidly. In a nonsaturated vapor environment, the evolution of the sessile drop is divided three stages: condensation-spreading stage, evaporation-retracting stage and rapid contracting stage. In the first stage the drop behaves as in the saturated environment. In the evaporation -retracting stage, the competition between spreading and evaporation of the drop determines the evolution characteristics of the contact diameter and the contact angle. A lower evaporation rate struggles against the spreading power to turn the drop from spreading to retracting with a continuous increase of the contact angle. The drop placed in open air has a much higher evaporation rate. The strong evaporation suppresses the spreading and accelerates the retraction of the drop with a linear decrease of the contact diameter. The contraction of the evaporating drops is gradually accelerated when the contact diameter decreases to 3 min and less till drying up, though the evaporation rate is gradually slowing down.

  6. Global Stability of an Epidemic Model of Computer Virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaofan Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid popularization of the Internet, computers can enter or leave the Internet increasingly frequently. In fact, no antivirus software can detect and remove all sorts of computer viruses. This implies that viruses would persist on the Internet. To better understand the spread of computer viruses in these situations, a new propagation model is established and analyzed. The unique equilibrium of the model is globally asymptotically stable, in accordance with the reality. A parameter analysis of the equilibrium is also conducted.

  7. Spread of Zika virus in the Americas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qian; Sun, Kaiyuan; Chinazzi, Matteo; Pastore Y Piontti, Ana; Dean, Natalie E; Rojas, Diana Patricia; Merler, Stefano; Mistry, Dina; Poletti, Piero; Rossi, Luca; Bray, Margaret; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2017-05-30

    We use a data-driven global stochastic epidemic model to analyze the spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas. The model has high spatial and temporal resolution and integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic, temperature, and vector density data. We estimate that the first introduction of ZIKV to Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 and April 2014 (90% credible interval). We provide simulated epidemic profiles of incident ZIKV infections for several countries in the Americas through February 2017. The ZIKV epidemic is characterized by slow growth and high spatial and seasonal heterogeneity, attributable to the dynamics of the mosquito vector and to the characteristics and mobility of the human populations. We project the expected timing and number of pregnancies infected with ZIKV during the first trimester and provide estimates of microcephaly cases assuming different levels of risk as reported in empirical retrospective studies. Our approach represents a modeling effort aimed at understanding the potential magnitude and timing of the ZIKV epidemic and it can be potentially used as a template for the analysis of future mosquito-borne epidemics.

  8. Spreading Culture on Quantum Entanglement and Consciousness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobili, G.; Teodorani, M.

    The subject of "quantum entanglement" in general doesn't seem to be particularly considered in Europe in the form of popularizing books or of educational physics projects. These authors have started to spread out this kind of scientific culture in both forms, including popularizing seminars too. Concerning the entanglement phenomenon, recently, new thought experiments have been outlined, new laboratory results have come out in the form of real discoveries in quantum optics, new studies on "bio-entanglement" and 'global consciousness effects' have been carried out, and very sophisticated new ideas have been developed in the fields of quantum physics, biophysics, cosmology and epistemology. These authors intend to show their effort of diffusing widely this growing scientific knowledge. Beyond all this there is a long-term strategy aimed at inculcating new concepts in physics in order to trigger the interest of scholars at all levels, in that which is probably the most innovative and interdisciplinary subject of the human knowledge of this new millennium.

  9. A Spread Willingness Computing-Based Information Dissemination Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Zhiming; Zhang, Shukui

    2014-01-01

    This paper constructs a kind of spread willingness computing based on information dissemination model for social network. The model takes into account the impact of node degree and dissemination mechanism, combined with the complex network theory and dynamics of infectious diseases, and further establishes the dynamical evolution equations. Equations characterize the evolutionary relationship between different types of nodes with time. The spread willingness computing contains three factors which have impact on user's spread behavior: strength of the relationship between the nodes, views identity, and frequency of contact. Simulation results show that different degrees of nodes show the same trend in the network, and even if the degree of node is very small, there is likelihood of a large area of information dissemination. The weaker the relationship between nodes, the higher probability of views selection and the higher the frequency of contact with information so that information spreads rapidly and leads to a wide range of dissemination. As the dissemination probability and immune probability change, the speed of information dissemination is also changing accordingly. The studies meet social networking features and can help to master the behavior of users and understand and analyze characteristics of information dissemination in social network. PMID:25110738

  10. A spread willingness computing-based information dissemination model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Haojing; Cui, Zhiming; Zhang, Shukui

    2014-01-01

    This paper constructs a kind of spread willingness computing based on information dissemination model for social network. The model takes into account the impact of node degree and dissemination mechanism, combined with the complex network theory and dynamics of infectious diseases, and further establishes the dynamical evolution equations. Equations characterize the evolutionary relationship between different types of nodes with time. The spread willingness computing contains three factors which have impact on user's spread behavior: strength of the relationship between the nodes, views identity, and frequency of contact. Simulation results show that different degrees of nodes show the same trend in the network, and even if the degree of node is very small, there is likelihood of a large area of information dissemination. The weaker the relationship between nodes, the higher probability of views selection and the higher the frequency of contact with information so that information spreads rapidly and leads to a wide range of dissemination. As the dissemination probability and immune probability change, the speed of information dissemination is also changing accordingly. The studies meet social networking features and can help to master the behavior of users and understand and analyze characteristics of information dissemination in social network.

  11. A Spread Willingness Computing-Based Information Dissemination Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haojing Huang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper constructs a kind of spread willingness computing based on information dissemination model for social network. The model takes into account the impact of node degree and dissemination mechanism, combined with the complex network theory and dynamics of infectious diseases, and further establishes the dynamical evolution equations. Equations characterize the evolutionary relationship between different types of nodes with time. The spread willingness computing contains three factors which have impact on user’s spread behavior: strength of the relationship between the nodes, views identity, and frequency of contact. Simulation results show that different degrees of nodes show the same trend in the network, and even if the degree of node is very small, there is likelihood of a large area of information dissemination. The weaker the relationship between nodes, the higher probability of views selection and the higher the frequency of contact with information so that information spreads rapidly and leads to a wide range of dissemination. As the dissemination probability and immune probability change, the speed of information dissemination is also changing accordingly. The studies meet social networking features and can help to master the behavior of users and understand and analyze characteristics of information dissemination in social network.

  12. Perineural spread in head and neck tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brea Álvarez, B; Tuñón Gómez, M

    2014-01-01

    Perineural spread is the dissemination of some types of head and neck tumors along nervous structures. Perineural spread has negative repercussions on treatment because it requires more extensive resection and larger fields of irradiation. Moreover, perineural spread is associated with increased local recurrence, and it is considered an independent indicator of poor prognosis in the TNM classification for tumor staging. However, perineural spread often goes undetected on imaging studies. In this update, we review the concept of perineural spread, its pathogenesis, and the main pathways and connections among the facial nerves, which are essential to understand this process. Furthermore, we discuss the appropriate techniques for imaging studies, and we describe and illustrate the typical imaging signs that help identify perineural spread on CT and MRI. Finally, we discuss the differential diagnosis with other entities. Copyright © 2013 SERAM. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  13. [Globalization and infectious diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirski, Tomasz; Bartoszcze, Michał; Bielawska-Drózd, Agata

    2011-01-01

    Globalization is a phenomenon characteristic of present times. It can be considered in various aspects: economic, environmental changes, demographic changes, as well as the development of new technologies. All these aspects of globalization have a definite influence on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases. Economic aspects ofglobalization are mainly the trade development, including food trade, which has an impact on the spread of food-borne diseases. The environmental changes caused by intensive development of industry, as a result of globalization, which in turn affects human health. The demographic changes are mainly people migration between countries and rural and urban areas, which essentially favors the global spread of many infectious diseases. While technological advances prevents the spread of infections, for example through better access to information, it may also increase the risk, for example through to create opportunities to travel into more world regions, including the endemic regions for various diseases. The phenomenon ofglobalization is also closely associated with the threat of terrorism, including bioterrorism. It forces the governments of many countries to develop effective programs to protect and fight against this threat.

  14. The Global Internet Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Deborah Joy

    2009-01-01

    The global rise of Internet-based education is discussed in relation to models drawn from social studies and epidemiology. Experiential and data density models are highlighted, also the capacity for technological change, and phenomena observed in the spread of disease. The lesson of these illustrations is that even apparently permanent phenomena…

  15. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush

    -zone spread allowing for 24/7 service delivery and access to resources. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent pools and speed of service delivery, and in particular when services are highly...

  16. MIMO Based Eigen-Space Spreading

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Eltawil, Ahmed

    2004-01-01

    .... Combination of this powerful technique with orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) based modulation and traditional time and frequency spreading techniques results in a highly secure mode of communications...

  17. COMBINED SURGERY OF SPREAD THYROID CANCER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Zh. Brzhezovsky

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Results of treating of 99 patients with differentiated thyroid cancer spreading beyond the capsule of the organ were analysed. In most cases with spreading the tumor to the tracheal rings performing of organ-preserving operations (from “window-like” tracheal resections to circular tracheal resection with intertracheal anastomosis is possible. Choosing of type of operation to be performed depends on localisation and spread of tumor invasion of trachea, pharynx and esophagus. Using of combined operations in patients with locally-spread thyroid cancer allows to achieve long and stable remission in most of the cases.

  18. Energy Spread Sources in TESLA and TTF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosnier, A.; Tessier, J.M.

    1995-03-01

    The beam energy spread in the TESLA linac must be small enough to limit the emittance dilution due to the dispersive effects. This report summarizes the major sources of energy spread both for the TESLA linac and the TTF linac, where these estimations will be carefully checked with beam experiments. The first part recalls the intra-bunch energy spread while the second part looks into the bunch-to-bunch energy spread induced by rf field fluctuations within the bunch train and from pulse-to-pulse. (author). 3 refs., 4 figs

  19. The Impact of Indonesia Sovereign Credit Rating Upgrades and Investment Grade Status on the Sovereign Spread Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dwi Anggi Novianti

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Getting sovereign credit rating upgrades and achieving investment grade status are main goals for countries in order to gain lower yield spread and cost of borrowing. By using ordinary least square method, this research is aimed to analyze the impact of Indonesia sovereign credit rating up-grade and investment grade status on sovereign spread changes. The result shows that the sovereign credit rating upgrades within speculative grade category and investment grade status for Indonesia do not significantly impact sovereign spread reduction. On the other hand, the global condition, especially global risk appetite, has significant impact to Indonesia sovereign yield spread. The research also indicates that Indonesia macroeconomic fundamentals do not significantly explain the movement of sovereign yield spread. Keywords: Yield spread, sovereign credit rating, investment grade, Indonesia

  20. Olive oil in food spreads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blanco Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available Chemical hydrogenation of unsaturated fatty acids is a commonly applied reaction to food industries. The process may imply the movement of double bonds in their positions on the fatty acid carbon chain, producing positional and geometrical isomers ( trans fatty acids. Through hydrogenation, unsaturated oils are converted to margarines and vegetable shortenings. The presence of trans fatty acids in foods is undesirable, as trans fatty acids raise the plasma levels of total and low-density lipoproteins (LDL, while decrease the plasma level of high-density lipoproteins (HDL, among other effects. The use of olive oil to prepare fat spread opens new insights into the commercial development of healthy novel foods with a positive image in terms of consumer appeal.La hidrogenación química de los ácidos grasos insaturados es una reacción que se utiliza con frecuencia en la industria alimentaria. El proceso implica el movimiento de los dobles enlaces en la cadena hidrocarbonada de los ácidos grasos, y la aparición de isómeros posicionales y geométricos (ácidos grasos trans . La ingesta inadecuada de alimentos que pueden contener cantidades significativas de ácidos grasos trans se asocia con el aumento en sangre de colesterol total y LDL, y la disminución de HDL, entre otros efectos. Por lo tanto, el uso de aceite de oliva en la preparación de grasas para untar constituye un importante avance en el desarrollo comercial de nuevos alimentos saludables con una imagen positiva para el consumidor.

  1. Anomalous diffusion spreads its wings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klafter, J. [School of Chemistry, Tel Aviv University, Tel-Aviv (Israel)]. E-mail: klafter@post.tau.ac.il; Sokolov, I.M. [Institute of Physics, Humboldt University, Berlin (Germany)]. E-mail: igor.sokolov@physik.hu-berlin.de

    2005-08-01

    An increasing number of natural phenomena do not fit into the relatively simple description of diffusion developed by Einstein a century ago. As all of us are no doubt aware, this year has been declared 'world year of physics' to celebrate the three remarkable breakthroughs made by Albert Einstein in 1905. However, it is not so well known that Einstein's work on Brownian motion - the random motion of tiny particles first observed and investigated by the botanist Robert Brown in 1827 - has been cited more times in the scientific literature than his more famous papers on special relativity and the quantum nature of light. In a series of publications that included his doctoral thesis, Einstein derived an equation for Brownian motion from microscopic principles - a feat that ultimately enabled Jean Perrin and others to prove the existence of atoms (see 'Einstein's random walk' Physics World January pp19-22). Einstein was not the only person thinking about this type of problem. The 27 July 1905 issue of Nature contained a letter with the title 'The problem of the random walk' by the British statistician Karl Pearson, who was interested in the way that mosquitoes spread malaria, which he showed was described by the well-known diffusion equation. As such, the displacement of a mosquito from its initial position is proportional to the square root of time, and the distribution of the positions of many such 'random walkers' starting from the same origin is Gaussian in form. The random walk has since turned out to be intimately linked to Einstein's work on Brownian motion, and has become a major tool for understanding diffusive processes in nature. (U.K.)

  2. Global Aerospace Industries: Rapid Changes Ahead? (Abridged)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-30

    Understanding the Situation: Contestable Markets • Central idea: the extent to which markets are “contestable” causes monopolists and oligopolists to behave...find useful explanatory models for Boeing?s success, discussed in Chapter II. In Chapter III, we consider the narrow-body airliner market , currently...families have provided resources for a number of wide-body developments some of which have become part of the defense marketplace. The narrow-body market

  3. Wet climate and transportation routes accelerate spread of human plague

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lei; Stige, Leif Chr.; Kausrud, Kyrre Linné; Ben Ari, Tamara; Wang, Shuchun; Fang, Xiye; Schmid, Boris V.; Liu, Qiyong; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Zhang, Zhibin

    2014-01-01

    Currently, large-scale transmissions of infectious diseases are becoming more closely associated with accelerated globalization and climate change, but quantitative analyses are still rare. By using an extensive dataset consisting of date and location of cases for the third plague pandemic from 1772 to 1964 in China and a novel method (nearest neighbour approach) which deals with both short- and long-distance transmissions, we found the presence of major roads, rivers and coastline accelerated the spread of plague and shaped the transmission patterns. We found that plague spread velocity was positively associated with wet conditions (measured by an index of drought and flood events) in China, probably due to flood-driven transmission by people or rodents. Our study provides new insights on transmission patterns and possible mechanisms behind variability in transmission speed, with implications for prevention and control measures. The methodology may also be applicable to studies of disease dynamics or species movement in other systems. PMID:24523275

  4. Collective behavior in the spatial spreading of obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallos, Lazaros K.; Barttfeld, Pablo; Havlin, Shlomo; Sigman, Mariano; Makse, Hernán A.

    2012-06-01

    Obesity prevalence is increasing in many countries at alarming levels. A difficulty in the conception of policies to reverse these trends is the identification of the drivers behind the obesity epidemics. Here, we implement a spatial spreading analysis to investigate whether obesity shows spatial correlations, revealing the effect of collective and global factors acting above individual choices. We find a regularity in the spatial fluctuations of their prevalence revealed by a pattern of scale-free long-range correlations. The fluctuations are anomalous, deviating in a fundamental way from the weaker correlations found in the underlying population distribution indicating the presence of collective behavior, i.e., individual habits may have negligible influence in shaping the patterns of spreading. Interestingly, we find the same scale-free correlations in economic activities associated with food production. These results motivate future interventions to investigate the causality of this relation providing guidance for the implementation of preventive health policies.

  5. Health, globalization and developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cilingiroglu, Nesrin

    2005-02-01

    In health care today, scientific and technological frontiers are expanding at unprecedented rates, even as economic and financial pressures shrink profit margins, intensify competition, and constrain the funds available for investment. Therefore, the world today has more economic, and social opportunities for people than 10 or 100 years since globalization has created a new ground somewhat characterized by rapid economic transformation, deregulation of national markets by new trade regimes, amazing transport, electronic communication possibilities and high turnover of foreign investment and capital flow as well as skilled labor. These trends can easily mask great inequalities in developing countries such as importation and spreading of infectious and non-communicable diseases; miniaturization of movement of medical technology; health sector trades management driven by economics without consideration to the social and health aspects and its effects, increasing health inequalities and their economic and social burden creation; multinational companies' cheap labor employment promotion in widening income differentials; and others. As a matter of fact, all these factors are major determinants of ill health. Health authorities of developing countries have to strengthen their regulatory framework in order to ensure that national health systems derive maximum benefit in terms of equity, quality and efficiency, while reducing potential social cost to a minimum generated risky side of globalization.

  6. Spreading to localized targets in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Ye; Ma, Long; Zeng, An; Wang, Wen-Xu

    2016-12-01

    As an important type of dynamics on complex networks, spreading is widely used to model many real processes such as the epidemic contagion and information propagation. One of the most significant research questions in spreading is to rank the spreading ability of nodes in the network. To this end, substantial effort has been made and a variety of effective methods have been proposed. These methods usually define the spreading ability of a node as the number of finally infected nodes given that the spreading is initialized from the node. However, in many real cases such as advertising and news propagation, the spreading only aims to cover a specific group of nodes. Therefore, it is necessary to study the spreading ability of nodes towards localized targets in complex networks. In this paper, we propose a reversed local path algorithm for this problem. Simulation results show that our method outperforms the existing methods in identifying the influential nodes with respect to these localized targets. Moreover, the influential spreaders identified by our method can effectively avoid infecting the non-target nodes in the spreading process.

  7. Epidemic spreading through direct and indirect interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Niloy; Krueger, Tyll; Mukherjee, Animesh; Saha, Sudipta

    2014-09-01

    In this paper we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics, considering a specialized setting where popular places (termed passive entities) are visited by agents (termed active entities). We consider two types of spreading dynamics: direct spreading, where the active entities infect each other while visiting the passive entities, and indirect spreading, where the passive entities act as carriers and the infection is spread via them. We investigate in particular the effect of selection strategy, i.e., the way passive entities are chosen, in the spread of epidemics. We introduce a mathematical framework to study the effect of an arbitrary selection strategy and derive formulas for prevalence, extinction probabilities, and epidemic thresholds for both indirect and direct spreading. We also obtain a very simple relationship between the extinction probability and the prevalence. We pay special attention to preferential selection and derive exact formulas. The analysis reveals that an increase in the diversity in the selection process lowers the epidemic thresholds. Comparing the direct and indirect spreading, we identify regions in the parameter space where the prevalence of the indirect spreading is higher than the direct one.

  8. Fluorescent visualization of a spreading surfactant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fallest, David W; Lichtenberger, Adele M; Fox, Christopher J; Daniels, Karen E, E-mail: kdaniel@ncsu.ed [Department of Physics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)

    2010-07-15

    The spreading of surfactants on thin films is an industrially and medically important phenomenon, but the dynamics are highly nonlinear and visualization of the surfactant dynamics has been a long-standing experimental challenge. We perform the first quantitative, spatiotemporally resolved measurements of the spreading of an insoluble surfactant on a thin fluid layer. During the spreading process, we directly observe both the radial height profile of the spreading droplet and the spatial distribution of the fluorescently tagged surfactant. We find that the leading edge of a spreading circular layer of surfactant forms a Marangoni ridge in the underlying fluid, with a trough trailing the ridge as expected. However, several novel features are observed using the fluorescence technique, including a peak in the surfactant concentration that trails the leading edge, and a flat, monolayer-scale spreading film that differs from concentration profiles predicted by current models. Both the Marangoni ridge and the surfactant leading edge can be described to spread as R{approx}t{sup {delta}}. We find spreading exponents {delta}{sub H}{approx}0.30 and {delta}{sub {Gamma}}{approx}0.22 for the ridge peak and surfactant leading edge, respectively, which are in good agreement with theoretical predictions of {delta}=1/4. In addition, we observe that the surfactant leading edge initially leads the peak of the Marangoni ridge, with the peak later catching up to the leading edge.

  9. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  10. Age, spreading rates, and spreading asymmetry of the world's ocean crust

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The authors present four companion digital models of the age, age uncertainty, spreading rates and spreading asymmetries of the world's ocean basins as geographic...

  11. Spread and Liquidity Issues: A markets comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strašek Sebastjan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The financial crises are closely connected with spread changes and liquidity issues. After defining and addressing spread considerations, we research in this paper the topic of liquidity issues in times of economic crisis. We analyse the liquidity effects as recorded on spreads of securities from different markets. We stipulate that higher international risk aversion in times of financial crises coincides with widening security spreads. The paper then introduces liquidity as a risk factor into the standard value-at-risk framework, using GARCH methodology. The comparison of results of these models suggests that the size of the tested markets does not have a strong effect on the models. Thus, we find that spread analysis is an appropriate tool for analysing liquidity issues during a financial crisis.

  12. Globalization, culture and psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melluish, Steve

    2014-10-01

    This article outlines the cultural and psychological effects of globalization. It looks at the impact of globalization on identity; ideas of privacy and intimacy; the way we understand and perceive psychological distress; and the development of the profession of psychology around the world. The article takes a critical perspective on globalization, seeing it as aligned with the spread of neoliberal capitalism, a tendency towards cultural homogenization, the imposition of dominant 'global north' ideas and the resultant growing inequalities in health and well-being. However, it also argues that the increased interconnectedness created by globalization allows for greater acknowledgement of our common humanity and for collective efforts to be developed to tackle what are increasingly global problems. This requires the development of more nuanced understandings of cultural differences and of indigenous psychologies.

  13. Synergy in spreading processes: from exploitative to explorative foraging strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Reche, Francisco J; Ludlam, Jonathan J; Taraskin, Sergei N; Gilligan, Christopher A

    2011-05-27

    An epidemiological model which incorporates synergistic effects that allow the infectivity and/or susceptibility of hosts to be dependent on the number of infected neighbors is proposed. Constructive synergy induces an exploitative behavior which results in a rapid invasion that infects a large number of hosts. Interfering synergy leads to a slower and sparser explorative foraging strategy that traverses larger distances by infecting fewer hosts. The model can be mapped to a dynamical bond percolation with spatial correlations that affect the mechanism of spread but do not influence the critical behavior of epidemics. © 2011 American Physical Society

  14. The current state of PET spread in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Hong

    2009-01-01

    Chinese nuclear medicine has 53 years history since 1956, and now is spreading in the country with the development of economy. Positron emission tomography (PET) has a rapid development in China, especially in the application of oncology, neurological and cardiologic diseases. The research of molecular imaging including PET also has been initiated. Zhejiang University as the largest university in China, has established the center of excellence in molecular imaging to improve the development of molecular imaging, which has active partnership and collaborative relationship with Japan, USA and European countries. The future of molecular imaging including PET in China is bright. (author)

  15. Does media coverage influence the spread of drug addiction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Mingju; Liu, Sanyang; Li, Jun

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, a three dimensional drug model is constructed to investigate the impact of media coverage on the spread and control of drug addiction. The dynamical behavior of the model is studied by using the basic reproduction number R0. The drug-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 drug addiction equilibrium is locally stable if R0 > 1. The results demonstrate that the media effect in human population cannot change the stabilities of equilibria but can affect the number of drug addicts. Sensitivity analyses are performed to seek for effective control measures for drug treatment. Numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results.

  16. Potential economic impact of introduction and spread of the red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta, in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutrich, J.J.; VanGelder, E.; Loope, L.

    2007-01-01

    Globally, many invasive alien species have caused extensive ecological and economic damage from either accidental or intentional introduction. The red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta, has created billions of dollars in costs annually, spreading as an invasive species across the southern United States. In 1998, the red imported fire ant spread into California creating a highly probable future introduction via shipped products to Hawaii. This paper presents the estimation of potential economic impacts of the red imported fire ant (RIFA) to the state of Hawaii. Evaluation of impacts focuses on the economic sectors of (1) households, (2) agriculture (cattle and crop production), (3) infrastructure (cemeteries, churches, cities, electrical, telephone, and cable services, highways, hospitals and schools), (4) recreation, tourism and business (hotels/resort areas, golf courses, commercial businesses and tourists), and (5) government expenditures (with minimal intervention). The full annual economic costs of the red imported fire ant to Hawaii are estimated (in US$ 2006) to be $211 million/year, comprised of $77 million in damages and expenditures and $134 million in foregone outdoor opportunities to households and tourists. The present value of the projected costs of RIFA over a 20-year period after introduction total $2.5 billion. RIFA invasions across the globe indicate that economic cost-effective action in Hawaii entails implementation of prevention, early detection and rapid response treatment programs for RIFA. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Development of Pistachio (Pistacia vera L.) spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakerardekani, Ahmad; Karim, Roselina; Ghazali, Hasanah Mohd; Chin, Nyuk Ling

    2013-03-01

    Pistachio nut (Pistacia vera L.) is one of the most delicious and nutritious nuts in the world. Pistachio spreads were developed using pistachio paste as the main component, icing sugar, soy protein isolate (SPI), and red palm oil (RPO), at different ratios. The highest mean scores of all the sensory attributes were depicted by spreads that were made without addition of SPI. It was found that the work of shear was 0 to 11.0 kg s for an acceptable spread. Sensory spreadability, overall texture, spreadability, and overall acceptability were negatively correlated (R > 0.83) with the work of shear of spreads. The findings indicated that the presence of RPO had a direct effect on the viscoelastic behavior of the pistachio spreads. The a values, which are related to the green color of the pistachio product ranged from 1.7 to 3.9 for spread without addition of RPO, and 4.0 to 5.3 in the presence of RPO. The development of pistachio spread would potentially increase the food uses of pistachio and introduce consumers with a healthier snack food. © 2013 Institute of Food Technologists®

  18. Virulence evolution at the front line of spreading epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griette, Quentin; Raoul, Gaël; Gandon, Sylvain

    2015-11-01

    Understanding and predicting the spatial spread of emerging pathogens is a major challenge for the public health management of infectious diseases. Theoretical epidemiology shows that the speed of an epidemic is governed by the life-history characteristics of the pathogen and its ability to disperse. Rapid evolution of these traits during the invasion may thus affect the speed of epidemics. Here we study the influence of virulence evolution on the spatial spread of an epidemic. At the edge of the invasion front, we show that more virulent and transmissible genotypes are expected to win the competition with other pathogens. Behind the front line, however, more prudent exploitation strategies outcompete virulent pathogens. Crucially, even when the presence of the virulent mutant is limited to the edge of the front, the invasion speed can be dramatically altered by pathogen evolution. We support our analysis with individual-based simulations and we discuss the additional effects of demographic stochasticity taking place at the front line on virulence evolution. We confirm that an increase of virulence can occur at the front, but only if the carrying capacity of the invading pathogen is large enough. These results are discussed in the light of recent empirical studies examining virulence evolution at the edge of spreading epidemics. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  19. Conditions for Viral Influence Spreading through Multiplex Correlated Social Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yanqing; Havlin, Shlomo; Makse, Hernán A.

    2014-04-01

    A fundamental problem in network science is to predict how certain individuals are able to initiate new networks to spring up "new ideas." Frequently, these changes in trends are triggered by a few innovators who rapidly impose their ideas through "viral" influence spreading, producing cascades of followers and fragmenting an old network to create a new one. Typical examples include the rise of scientific ideas or abrupt changes in social media, like the rise of Facebook to the detriment of Myspace. How this process arises in practice has not been conclusively demonstrated. Here, we show that a condition for sustaining a viral spreading process is the existence of a multiplex-correlated graph with hidden "influence links." Analytical solutions predict percolation-phase transitions, either abrupt or continuous, where networks are disintegrated through viral cascades of followers, as in empirical data. Our modeling predicts the strict conditions to sustain a large viral spreading via a scaling form of the local correlation function between multilayers, which we also confirm empirically. Ultimately, the theory predicts the conditions for viral cascading in a large class of multiplex networks ranging from social to financial systems and markets.

  20. Warning signals for eruptive events in spreading fires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Jerome M; Whitesides, George M

    2015-02-24

    Spreading fires are noisy (and potentially chaotic) systems in which transitions in dynamics are notoriously difficult to predict. As flames move through spatially heterogeneous environments, sudden shifts in temperature, wind, or topography can generate combustion instabilities, or trigger self-stabilizing feedback loops, that dramatically amplify the intensities and rates with which fires propagate. Such transitions are rarely captured by predictive models of fire behavior and, thus, complicate efforts in fire suppression. This paper describes a simple, remarkably instructive physical model for examining the eruption of small flames into intense, rapidly moving flames stabilized by feedback between wind and fire (i.e., "wind-fire coupling"-a mechanism of feedback particularly relevant to forest fires), and it presents evidence that characteristic patterns in the dynamics of spreading flames indicate when such transitions are likely to occur. In this model system, flames propagate along strips of nitrocellulose with one of two possible modes of propagation: a slow, structured mode, and a fast, unstructured mode sustained by wind-fire coupling. Experimental examination of patterns in dynamics that emerge near bifurcation points suggests that symptoms of critical slowing down (i.e., the slowed recovery of the system from perturbations as it approaches tipping points) warn of impending transitions to the unstructured mode. Findings suggest that slowing responses of spreading flames to sudden changes in environment (e.g., wind, terrain, temperature) may anticipate the onset of intense, feedback-stabilized modes of propagation (e.g., "blowup fires" in forests).

  1. Credit Spreads Across the Business Cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mads Stenbo

    This paper studies how corporate bond spreads vary with the business cycle. I show that both level and slope of empirical credit spread curves are correlated with the state of the economy, and I link this to variation in idiosyncratic jump risk. I develop a structural credit risk model...... that accounts for both business cycle and jump risk, and show by estimation that the model captures the counter-cyclical level and pro-cyclical slope of empirical credit spread curves. In addition, I provide a new procedure for estimation of idiosyncratic jump risk, which is consistent with observed shocks...

  2. Modelling unidirectional liquid spreading on slanted microposts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavalli, Andrea; Blow, Matthew L.; Yeomans, Julia M.

    2013-01-01

    A lattice Boltzmann algorithm is used to simulate the slow spreading of drops on a surface patterned with slanted micro-posts. Gibb's pinning of the interface on the sides or top of the posts leads to unidirectional spreading over a wide range of contact angles and inclination angles of the posts....... Regimes for spreading in no, one or two directions are identified, and shown to agree well with a two-dimensional theory proposed in Chu, Xiao and Wang. A more detailed numerical analysis of the contact line shapes allows us to understand deviations from the two dimensional model, and to identify...

  3. Has the First Global Financial Crisis Changed the Entrepreneurial Values in Digitalized Marketing-based Societies? The Case of GEM Latin American Countries

    OpenAIRE

    José Manuel Saiz Álvarez; Alicia Coduras Martínez; Carlos Cuervo Arango

    2017-01-01

    As the world economy is globalized, crises are rapidly spread due to the massive use of ICTs (Information and Communication Technologies), also affecting the entrepreneurial values involved in business creation processes. In this sense, digital marketing has a key role to play, as it can serve as a tool based on technology applied to foster nascent entrepreneurship. Using data for GEM Latin American countries, and applying clustering analysis based on the K-means method, the objective of this...

  4. Epidemic spreading in a hierarchical social network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabowski, A; Kosiński, R A

    2004-09-01

    A model of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. Spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, and the mobility of a contemporary community, as well as the effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions, are taken into account. Typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, are discussed. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated. The critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results are compared with solutions of the master equation for the spreading process and good agreement of the character of this process is found.

  5. Heterogeneous incidence and propagation of spreading depolarizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Dan; Theriot, Jeremy J; Zyuzin, Jekaterina; Service, C Austin; Chang, Joshua C; Tang, Y Tanye; Bogdanov, Vladimir B; Multon, Sylvie; Schoenen, Jean; Ju, Y Sungtaek

    2016-01-01

    Spreading depolarizations are implicated in a diverse set of neurologic diseases. They are unusual forms of nervous system activity in that they propagate very slowly and approximately concentrically, apparently not respecting the anatomic, synaptic, functional, or vascular architecture of the brain. However, there is evidence that spreading depolarizations are not truly concentric, isotropic, or homogeneous, either in space or in time. Here we present evidence from KCl-induced spreading depolarizations, in mouse and rat, in vivo and in vitro, showing the great variability that these depolarizations can exhibit. This variability can help inform the mechanistic understanding of spreading depolarizations, and it has implications for their phenomenology in neurologic disease. PMID:27562866

  6. Interference management using direct sequence spread spectrum ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Interference management using direct sequence spread spectrum (DSSS) technique ... Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences ... Keywords: DSSS, LTE network; Wi-Fi network; SINR; interference management and interference power.

  7. Flame spread along thermally thick horizontal rods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higuera, F. J.

    2002-06-01

    An analysis is carried out of the spread of a flame along a horizontal solid fuel rod, for which a weak aiding natural convection flow is established in the underside of the rod by the action of the axial gradient of the pressure variation that gravity generates in the warm gas surrounding the flame. The spread rate is determined in the limit of infinitely fast kinetics, taking into account the effect of radiative losses from the solid surface. The effect of a small inclination of the rod is discussed, pointing out a continuous transition between upward and downward flame spread. Flame spread along flat-bottomed solid cylinders, for which the gradient of the hydrostatically generated pressure drives the flow both along and across the direction of flame propagation, is also analysed.

  8. Spreading paths in partially observed social networks

    OpenAIRE

    Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; Christakis, Nicholas A.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding how and how far information, behaviors, or pathogens spread in social networks is an important problem, having implications for both predicting the size of epidemics, as well as for planning effective interventions. There are, however, two main challenges for inferring spreading paths in real-world networks. One is the practical difficulty of observing a dynamic process on a network, and the other is the typical constraint of only partially observing a network. Using a static, s...

  9. Mapping the Spread of Mounted Warfare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Turchin

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Military technology is one of the most important factors affecting the evolution of complex societies. In particular, mounted warfare, the use of horse-riders in military operations, revolutionized war as it spread to different parts of Eurasia and Africa during the Ancient and Medieval eras, and to the Americas during the Early Modern period. Here we use a variety of sources to map this spread.

  10. Ignition and spread of electrical wire fires

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Xinyan

    2012-01-01

    Ignition of electrical wires by external heating is investigated in order to gain a better understanding of the initiation of electrical-wire fires. An ignition-to- spread model is developed to systematically explain ignition and the following transition to spread. The model predicts that for a higher-conductance wire it is more difficult to achieve ignition and the weak flame may extinguish during the transition phase because of a large conductive heat loss along the wire core. Wires with tw...

  11. Spreading characteristics of proprietary rectal steroid preparations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hay, D.J.

    1982-01-01

    Three types of rectal steroid preparation were labelled with Technetium 99 or Indium 111, and the extent of spread of each within the bowel was followed, immediately after administration and at 2hrs, using a gamma camera. Patients with ulcerative colitis were compared with controls. Results indicate that 'Colifoam' enema and 'Predsol' suppository act mainly in the rectum, but 'Predsol retention' enema spreads further into the colon, making it more useful for patients with extensive ulcerative colitis. (U.K.)

  12. Rapidly changing treatment options adding burden to the management of typhoid fever

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaspal Kaur

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Typhoid fever continues to be a global public health problem. It is caused by the facultative intracellular organisms Salmonella enteric serotype Typhi and Salmonella paratyphi. Antimicrobial therapy is the mainstay for treatment of typhoid fever. Chloramphenicol, ampicillin, and cotrimoxazole had been in use for decades for treating enteric fever. But the emergence and rapid spread of drug resistance has resulted in rapid shift of treatment options from chloramphenicol to fluoroquinolones to third generation cephalosporins to azithromycin with tigecycline and carbapenems in line, thus adding burden to the health-care sector in developing countries. Rational and judicious antibiotic prescribing practices by health professionals are necessary to prevent further development of drug resistance and help in re-emergence of sensitive strains.

  13. Dynamical Model about Rumor Spreading with Medium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaxia Zhao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Rumor is a kind of social remark, that is untrue, and not be confirmed, and spreads on a large scale in a short time. Usually, it can induce a cloud of pressure, anxiety, and panic. Traditionally, it is propagated by word of mouth. Nowadays, with the emergence of the internet, rumors can be spread by instant messengers, emails, or publishing. With this new pattern of spreading, an ISRW dynamical model considering the medium as a subclass is established. Beside the dynamical analysis of the model, we mainly explore the mechanism of spreading of individuals-to-individuals and medium-to-individual. By numerical simulation, we find that if we want to control the rumor spreading, it will not only need to control the rate of change of the spreader subclass, but also need to control the change of the information about rumor in medium which has larger influence. Moreover, to control the effusion of rumor is more important than deleting existing information about rumor. On the one hand, government should enhance the management of internet. On the other hand, relevant legal institutions for punishing the rumor creator and spreader on internet who can be tracked should be established. Using this way, involved authorities can propose efficient measures to control the rumor spreading to keep the stabilization of society and development of economy.

  14. Gossip spread in social network Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Tobias

    2017-04-01

    Gossip almost inevitably arises in real social networks. In this article we investigate the relationship between the number of friends of a person and limits on how far gossip about that person can spread in the network. How far gossip travels in a network depends on two sets of factors: (a) factors determining gossip transmission from one person to the next and (b) factors determining network topology. For a simple model where gossip is spread among people who know the victim it is known that a standard scale-free network model produces a non-monotonic relationship between number of friends and expected relative spread of gossip, a pattern that is also observed in real networks (Lind et al., 2007). Here, we study gossip spread in two social network models (Toivonen et al., 2006; Vázquez, 2003) by exploring the parameter space of both models and fitting them to a real Facebook data set. Both models can produce the non-monotonic relationship of real networks more accurately than a standard scale-free model while also exhibiting more realistic variability in gossip spread. Of the two models, the one given in Vázquez (2003) best captures both the expected values and variability of gossip spread.

  15. Roles of the spreading scope and effectiveness in spreading dynamics on multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ming; Liu, Run-Ran; Peng, Dan; Jia, Chun-Xiao; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2018-02-01

    Comparing with single networks, the multiplex networks bring two main effects on the spreading process among individuals. First, the pathogen or information can be transmitted to more individuals through different layers at one time, which enlarges the spreading scope. Second, through different layers, an individual can also transmit the pathogen or information to the same individuals more than once at one time, which makes the spreading more effective. To understand the different roles of the spreading scope and effectiveness, we propose an epidemic model on multiplex networks with link overlapping, where the spreading effectiveness of each interaction as well as the variety of channels (spreading scope) can be controlled by the number of overlapping links. We find that for Poisson degree distribution, increasing the epidemic scope (the first effect) is more efficient than enhancing epidemic probability (the second effect) to facilitate the spreading process. However, for power-law degree distribution, the effects of the two factors on the spreading dynamics become complicated. Enhancing epidemic probability makes pathogen or rumor easier to outbreak in a finite system. But after that increasing epidemic scopes is still more effective for a wide spreading. Theoretical results along with reasonable explanation for these phenomena are all given in this paper, which indicates that the epidemic scope could play an important role in the spreading dynamics.

  16. Global teaching of global seismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, S.; Wysession, M.

    2005-12-01

    Our recent textbook, Introduction to Seismology, Earthquakes, & Earth Structure (Blackwell, 2003) is used in many countries. Part of the reason for this may be our deliberate attempt to write the book for an international audience. This effort appears in several ways. We stress seismology's long tradition of global data interchange. Our brief discussions of the science's history illustrate the contributions of scientists around the world. Perhaps most importantly, our discussions of earthquakes, tectonics, and seismic hazards take a global view. Many examples are from North America, whereas others are from other areas. Our view is that non-North American students should be exposed to North American examples that are type examples, and that North American students should be similarly exposed to examples elsewhere. For example, we illustrate how the Euler vector geometry changes a plate boundary from spreading, to strike-slip, to convergence using both the Pacific-North America boundary from the Gulf of California to Alaska and the Eurasia-Africa boundary from the Azores to the Mediterranean. We illustrate diffuse plate boundary zones using western North America, the Andes, the Himalayas, the Mediterranean, and the East Africa Rift. The subduction zone discussions examine Japan, Tonga, and Chile. We discuss significant earthquakes both in the U.S. and elsewhere, and explore hazard mitigation issues in different contexts. Both comments from foreign colleagues and our experience lecturing overseas indicate that this approach works well. Beyond the specifics of our text, we believe that such a global approach is facilitated by the international traditions of the earth sciences and the world youth culture that gives students worldwide common culture. For example, a video of the scene in New Madrid, Missouri that arose from a nonsensical earthquake prediction in 1990 elicits similar responses from American and European students.

  17. Effects of q-profile structure on turbulence spreading: A fluctuation intensity transport analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yi, S.; Kwon, J. M. [National Fusion Research Institute, Eoeun-dong, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-333 (Korea, Republic of); Diamond, P. H. [National Fusion Research Institute, Eoeun-dong, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-333 (Korea, Republic of); Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences and Department of Physics, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093-0429 (United States); Hahm, T. S. [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-744 (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-09-15

    This paper studies effects of q-profile structure on turbulence spreading. It reports results of numerical experiments using global gyrokinetic simulations. We examine propagation of turbulence, triggered by an identical linear instability in a source region, into an adjacent, linearly stable region with variable q-profile. The numerical experiments are designed so as to separate the physics of turbulence spreading from that of linear stability. The strength of turbulence spreading is measured by the penetration depth of turbulence. Dynamics of spreading are elucidated by fluctuation intensity balance analysis, using a model intensity evolution equation which retains nonlinear diffusion and damping, and linear growth. It is found that turbulence spreading is strongly affected by magnetic shear s, but is hardly altered by the safety factor q itself. There is an optimal range of modest magnetic shear which maximizes turbulence spreading. For high to modest shear values, the spreading is enhanced by the increase of the mode correlation length with decreasing magnetic shear. However, the efficiency of spreading drops for sufficiently low magnetic shear even though the mode correlation length is comparable to that for the case of optimal magnetic shear. The reduction of spreading is attributed to the increase in time required for the requisite nonlinear mode-mode interactions. The effect of increased interaction time dominates that of increased mode correlation length. Our findings of the reduction of spreading and the increase in interaction time at weak magnetic shear are consistent with the well-known benefit of weak or reversed magnetic shear for core confinement enhancement. Weak shear is shown to promote locality, as well as stability.

  18. A network model for Ebola spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzo, Alessandro; Pedalino, Biagio; Porfiri, Maurizio

    2016-04-07

    The availability of accurate models for the spreading of infectious diseases has opened a new era in management and containment of epidemics. Models are extensively used to plan for and execute vaccination campaigns, to evaluate the risk of international spreadings and the feasibility of travel bans, and to inform prophylaxis campaigns. Even when no specific therapeutical protocol is available, as for the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), models of epidemic spreading can provide useful insight to steer interventions in the field and to forecast the trend of the epidemic. Here, we propose a novel mathematical model to describe EVD spreading based on activity driven networks (ADNs). Our approach overcomes the simplifying assumption of homogeneous mixing, which is central to most of the mathematically tractable models of EVD spreading. In our ADN-based model, each individual is not bound to contact every other, and its network of contacts varies in time as a function of an activity potential. Our model contemplates the possibility of non-ideal and time-varying intervention policies, which are critical to accurately describe EVD spreading in afflicted countries. The model is calibrated from field data of the 2014 April-to-December spreading in Liberia. We use the model as a predictive tool, to emulate the dynamics of EVD in Liberia and offer a one-year projection, until December 2015. Our predictions agree with the current vision expressed by professionals in the field, who consider EVD in Liberia at its final stage. The model is also used to perform a what-if analysis to assess the efficacy of timely intervention policies. In particular, we show that an earlier application of the same intervention policy would have greatly reduced the number of EVD cases, the duration of the outbreak, and the infrastructures needed for the implementation of the intervention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. High-temperature spreading kinetics of metals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rauch, N.

    2005-05-15

    In this PhD work a drop transfer setup combined with high speed photography has been used to analyze the spreading of Ag on polished polycrystalline Mo and single crystalline Mo (110) and (100) substrates. The objective of this work was to unveil the basic phenomena controlling spreading in metal-metal systems. The observed spreading kinetics were compared with current theories of low and high temperature spreading such as a molecular kinetic model and a fluid flow model. Analyses of the data reveal that the molecular model does describe the fastest velocity data well for all the investigated systems. Therefore, the energy which is dissipated during the spreading process is a dissipation at the triple line rather than dissipation due to the viscosity in the liquid. A comparison of the determined free activation energy for wetting of {delta}G95{approx}145kJ/mol with literature values allows the statement that the rate determining step seems to be a surface diffusion of the Ag atoms along the triple line. In order to investigate possible ridge formation, due to local atomic diffusion of atoms of the substrate at the triple during the spreading process, grooving experiments of the polycrystalline Mo were performed to calculate the surface diffusities that will control ridge evolution. The analyses of this work showed that a ridge formation at the fastest reported wetting velocities was not possible if there is no initial perturbation for a ridge. If there was an initial perturbation for a ridge the ridge had to be much smaller than 1 nm in order to be able to move with the liquid font. Therefore ridge formation does not influence the spreading kinetics for the studied system and the chosen conditions. SEM, AFM and TEM investigations of the triple line showed that ridge formation does also not occur at the end of the wetting experiment when the drop is close to equilibrium and the wetting velocity is slow. (orig.)

  20. Terrestrial spreading centers under Venus conditions - Evaluation of a crustal spreading model for Western Aphrodite Terra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotin, C.; Senske, D. A.; Head, J. W.; Parmentier, E. M.

    1989-01-01

    The model of Reid and Jackson (1981) for terrestrial spreading centers is applied to Venus conditions. On the basis of spreading rate, mantle temperature, and surface temperature, the model predicts both isostatic topography and crustal thickness. The model and Pioneer Venus altimetry and gravity data are used to test the hypothesis of Head and Crumpler (1987) that Western Aphrodite Terra is the location of crustal spreading on Venus. It is concluded that a spreading center model for Ovda Regio in Western Aphrodite Terra could account for the observed topography and line-of-sight gravity anomalies found in the Pioneer data.

  1. Global malaria connectivity through air travel

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Zhuojie; Tatem, Andrew J

    2013-01-01

    Background Air travel has expanded at an unprecedented rate and continues to do so. Its effects have been seen on malaria in rates of imported cases, local outbreaks in non-endemic areas and the global spread of drug resistance. With elimination and global eradication back on the agenda, changing levels and compositions of imported malaria in malaria-free countries, and the threat of artemisinin resistance spreading from Southeast Asia, there is a need to better understand how the modern flow...

  2. Spreading paths in partially observed social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; Christakis, Nicholas A.

    2012-03-01

    Understanding how and how far information, behaviors, or pathogens spread in social networks is an important problem, having implications for both predicting the size of epidemics, as well as for planning effective interventions. There are, however, two main challenges for inferring spreading paths in real-world networks. One is the practical difficulty of observing a dynamic process on a network, and the other is the typical constraint of only partially observing a network. Using static, structurally realistic social networks as platforms for simulations, we juxtapose three distinct paths: (1) the stochastic path taken by a simulated spreading process from source to target; (2) the topologically shortest path in the fully observed network, and hence the single most likely stochastic path, between the two nodes; and (3) the topologically shortest path in a partially observed network. In a sampled network, how closely does the partially observed shortest path (3) emulate the unobserved spreading path (1)? Although partial observation inflates the length of the shortest path, the stochastic nature of the spreading process also frequently derails the dynamic path from the shortest path. We find that the partially observed shortest path does not necessarily give an inflated estimate of the length of the process path; in fact, partial observation may, counterintuitively, make the path seem shorter than it actually is.

  3. Spreading paths in partially observed social networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; Christakis, Nicholas A

    2012-03-01

    Understanding how and how far information, behaviors, or pathogens spread in social networks is an important problem, having implications for both predicting the size of epidemics, as well as for planning effective interventions. There are, however, two main challenges for inferring spreading paths in real-world networks. One is the practical difficulty of observing a dynamic process on a network, and the other is the typical constraint of only partially observing a network. Using static, structurally realistic social networks as platforms for simulations, we juxtapose three distinct paths: (1) the stochastic path taken by a simulated spreading process from source to target; (2) the topologically shortest path in the fully observed network, and hence the single most likely stochastic path, between the two nodes; and (3) the topologically shortest path in a partially observed network. In a sampled network, how closely does the partially observed shortest path (3) emulate the unobserved spreading path (1)? Although partial observation inflates the length of the shortest path, the stochastic nature of the spreading process also frequently derails the dynamic path from the shortest path. We find that the partially observed shortest path does not necessarily give an inflated estimate of the length of the process path; in fact, partial observation may, counterintuitively, make the path seem shorter than it actually is.

  4. Assessment of thema code against spreading experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spindler, B.; Veteau, J.M.; Cecco, L. de; Montanelli, P.; Pineau, D.

    2000-01-01

    In the frame work of severe accident research, the spreading code THEMA, developed at CEA/DRN, aims at predicting the spreading extent of molten core after a vessel melt-through. The code solves fluid balance equations integrated over the fluid depth for oxidic and/or metallic phases under the shallow water assumption, using a finite difference scheme. Solidification is taken into account through crust formation on the substrate and at contact with the surroundings, as well as increase of fluid viscosity with solid fraction in the melt. A separate energy equation is solved for the solid substrate, including possible ablation. The assessment of THEMA code against the spreading experiments performed in the framework of the corium spreading and coolability project of the European Union is presented. These experiments use either simulating materials at medium (RIT), or at high temperature (KATS), or corium (VULCANO, FARO), conducted at different mass flow rates and with large or low solidification interval. THEMA appears to be able to simulate the whole set of the experiments investigated. Comparison between experimental and computed spreading lengths and substrate temperatures are quite satisfactory. The results show a rather large sensitivity at mass flow rate and inlet temperature, indicating that, generally, efforts should be made to improve the accuracy of the measurements of such parameters in the experiments. (orig.)

  5. Post-Tanner spreading of nematic droplets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mechkov, S; Oshanin, G; Cazabat, A M

    2009-01-01

    The quasistationary spreading of a circular liquid drop on a solid substrate typically obeys the so-called Tanner law, with the instantaneous base radius R(t) growing with time as R∼t 1/10 -an effect of the dominant role of capillary forces for a small-sized droplet. However, for droplets of nematic liquid crystals, a faster spreading law sets in at long times, so that R∼t α with α significantly larger than the Tanner exponent 1/10. In the framework of the thin film model (or lubrication approximation), we describe this 'acceleration' as a transition to a qualitatively different spreading regime driven by a strong substrate-liquid interaction specific to nematics (antagonistic anchoring at the interfaces). The numerical solution of the thin film equation agrees well with the available experimental data for nematics, even though the non-Newtonian rheology has yet to be taken into account. Thus we complement the theory of spreading with a post-Tanner stage, noting that the spreading process can be expected to cross over from the usual capillarity-dominated stage to a regime where the whole reservoir becomes a diffusive film in the sense of Derjaguin.

  6. Emergence and nosocomial spread of carbapenem-resistant OXA-232-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae in Brunei Darussalam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abdul Momin, Muhd Haziq Fikry; Liakopoulos, Apostolos; Phee, Lynette M.; Wareham, David W.

    2017-01-01

    Objectives Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) are identified as a major global health concern. The success of CRE is facilitated by the emergence, acquisition and spread of successful clones carrying plasmid-encoded resistance genes. In this study, an outbreak of carbapenem-resistant

  7. Asymptotic behaviour for a system describing epidemics with migration and spatial spread of infection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirane, M.; Kouachi, S.

    1991-08-01

    A parabolic system with linear interactions is considered with specific applications to the spread of infectious diseases. Using a Payne-type functional we prove the global existence of a unique solution and analyze its large time behaviour. (author). 14 refs

  8. Seasonal variations of equatorial spread-F

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. V. Krishna Murthy

    Full Text Available The occurrence of spread-F at Trivandrum (8.5°N, 77°E, dip 0.5°N has been investigated on a seasonal basis in sunspot maximum and minimum years in terms of the growth rate of irregularities by the generalized collisional Rayleigh-Taylor (GRT instability mechanism which includes the gravitational and cross-field instability terms. The occurrence statistics of spread-F at Trivandrum have been obtained using quarter hourly ionograms. The nocturnal variations of the growth rate of irregularities by the GRT mechanism have been estimated for different seasons in sunspot maximum and minimum years at Trivandrum using h'F values and vertical drift velocities obtained from ionograms. It is found that the seasonal variation of spread-F occurrence at Trivandrum can, in general, be accounted for on the basis of the GRT mechanism.

  9. Seasonal variations of equatorial spread-F

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. S. V. Subbarao

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available The occurrence of spread-F at Trivandrum (8.5°N, 77°E, dip 0.5°N has been investigated on a seasonal basis in sunspot maximum and minimum years in terms of the growth rate of irregularities by the generalized collisional Rayleigh-Taylor (GRT instability mechanism which includes the gravitational and cross-field instability terms. The occurrence statistics of spread-F at Trivandrum have been obtained using quarter hourly ionograms. The nocturnal variations of the growth rate of irregularities by the GRT mechanism have been estimated for different seasons in sunspot maximum and minimum years at Trivandrum using h'F values and vertical drift velocities obtained from ionograms. It is found that the seasonal variation of spread-F occurrence at Trivandrum can, in general, be accounted for on the basis of the GRT mechanism.

  10. Diffusive spreading in nature, technology and society

    CERN Document Server

    Caro, Jürgen; Kärger, Jörg; Vogl, Gero

    2018-01-01

    This book deals with randomly moving objects and their spreading. The objects considered are particles like atoms and molecules, just as living beings like humans, animals, plants, bacteria and even abstract entities like ideas, rumors, information, innovations and linguistic features. The book explores and communicates the laws behind these movements and reports about astonishing similarities and very specific features typical of the given object under considerations. Leading scientists in disciplines as different as archeology, epidemics, linguistics and sociology, in contact with their colleagues from engineering, natural sciences and mathematics, introduce into the phenomena of spreading as relevant for their fields. An introductory chapter on “Spreading Fundamentals” provides a common basis for all these considerations, with a minimum of mathematics, selected and presented for enjoying rather than frustrating the reader.

  11. Linear theory of equatorial spread F

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, M.K.; Kennel, C.F.

    1975-01-01

    A fluid dispersion relation for the drift and interchange (Rayleigh-Taylor) modes in a collisional plasma forms the basis for a linear theory of equatorial spread F. The collisional drift mode growth rate will exceed the growth rate of the Rayleigh-Taylor mode at short perpendicular wavelengths and density gradient scale lengths, and the drift mode can grow on top side as well as on bottom side density gradients. However, below the F peak, where spread F predominates, it is concluded that both the drift and the Rayleigh-Taylor modes contribute to the total spread F spectrum, the Rayleigh-Taylor mode dominating at long and the drift mode at short perpendicular wavelengths above the ion Larmor radius

  12. The spread of gossip in American schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, P. G.; da Silva, L. R.; Andrade, J. S., Jr.; Herrmann, H. J.

    2007-06-01

    Gossip is defined as a rumor which specifically targets one individual and essentially only propagates within its friendship connections. How fast and how far a gossip can spread is for the first time assessed quantitatively in this study. For that purpose we introduce the "spread factor" and study it on empirical networks of school friendships as well as on various models for social connections. We discover that there exists an ideal number of friendship connections an individual should have to minimize the danger of gossip propagation.

  13. Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

    2015-11-01

    Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

  14. Experiments on non-isothermal spreading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehrhard, P.

    1992-09-01

    Experiments are performed on axisymmetric spreading of viscous drops on glass plates. Two liquids are investigated: silicone oil (M-100) spreads to 'infinity' and paraffin oil spreads to a finite-radius steady state. The experiments with silicone oil partly recover the behaviour of previous workers data; those experiments with paraffin oil provide new data. It is found that gravitational forces dominate at long enough times while at shorter times capillary forces dominate. When the plate is heated or cooled with respect to the ambient gas, thermocapillary forces generate flows that alter the spreading dynamics. Heating (cooling) the plate is found to retard (augment) the streading. Moreover, in case of partial wetting, the finally-approached drop radius is smaller (larger) for a heated (cooled) plate. These data are all new. All these observations are in excellent quantitative agreement with the related model predictions of Ehrhard and Davis (1991). A breakdown of the axisymmetric character of the flow is observed only for very long times and/or very thin liquid layers. (orig.) [de

  15. Social Distancing Strategies against Disease Spreading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdez, L. D.; Buono, C.; Macri, P. A.; Braunstein, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    The recurrent infectious diseases and their increasing impact on the society has promoted the study of strategies to slow down the epidemic spreading. In this review we outline the applications of percolation theory to describe strategies against epidemic spreading on complex networks. We give a general outlook of the relation between link percolation and the susceptible-infected-recovered model, and introduce the node void percolation process to describe the dilution of the network composed by healthy individual, i.e., the network that sustain the functionality of a society. Then, we survey two strategies: the quenched disorder strategy where an heterogeneous distribution of contact intensities is induced in society, and the intermittent social distancing strategy where health individuals are persuaded to avoid contact with their neighbors for intermittent periods of time. Using percolation tools, we show that both strategies may halt the epidemic spreading. Finally, we discuss the role of the transmissibility, i.e., the effective probability to transmit a disease, on the performance of the strategies to slow down the epidemic spreading.

  16. Disease spreading in real-life networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallos, Lazaros; Argyrakis, Panos

    2002-08-01

    In recent years the scientific community has shown a vivid interest in the network structure and dynamics of real-life organized systems. Many such systems, covering an extremely wide range of applications, have been recently shown to exhibit scale-free character in their connectivity distribution, meaning that they obey a power law. Modeling of epidemics on lattices and small-world networks suffers from the presence of a critical infection threshold, above which the entire population is infected. For scale-free networks, the original assumption was that the formation of a giant cluster would lead to an epidemic spreading in the same way as in simpler networks. Here we show that modeling epidemics on a scale-free network can greatly improve the predictions on the rate and efficiency of spreading, as compared to lattice models and small-world networks. We also show that the dynamics of a disease are greatly influenced by the underlying population structure. The exact same model can describe a plethora of networks, such as social networks, virus spreading in the Web, rumor spreading, signal transmission etc.

  17. Spread of Rare Fungus from Vancouver Island

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2006-12-20

    Cryptococcus gattii, a rare fungus normally found in the tropics, has infected people and animals on Vancouver Island, Canada. Dr. David Warnock, Director, Division of Foodborne, Bacterial, and Mycotic Diseases, CDC, discusses public health concerns about further spread of this organism.  Created: 12/20/2006 by Emerging Infectious Diseases.   Date Released: 12/29/2006.

  18. DataSpread: Unifying Databases and Spreadsheets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendre, Mangesh; Sun, Bofan; Zhang, Ding; Zhou, Xinyan; Chang, Kevin ChenChuan; Parameswaran, Aditya

    2015-08-01

    Spreadsheet software is often the tool of choice for ad-hoc tabular data management, processing, and visualization, especially on tiny data sets. On the other hand, relational database systems offer significant power, expressivity, and efficiency over spreadsheet software for data management, while lacking in the ease of use and ad-hoc analysis capabilities. We demonstrate DataSpread, a data exploration tool that holistically unifies databases and spreadsheets. It continues to offer a Microsoft Excel-based spreadsheet front-end, while in parallel managing all the data in a back-end database, specifically, PostgreSQL. DataSpread retains all the advantages of spreadsheets, including ease of use, ad-hoc analysis and visualization capabilities, and a schema-free nature, while also adding the advantages of traditional relational databases, such as scalability and the ability to use arbitrary SQL to import, filter, or join external or internal tables and have the results appear in the spreadsheet. DataSpread needs to reason about and reconcile differences in the notions of schema, addressing of cells and tuples, and the current "pane" (which exists in spreadsheets but not in traditional databases), and support data modifications at both the front-end and the back-end. Our demonstration will center on our first and early prototype of the DataSpread, and will give the attendees a sense for the enormous data exploration capabilities offered by unifying spreadsheets and databases.

  19. Unidirectional spreading of oil under solid ice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weerasuriya, S.A.; Yapa, P.D.

    1993-01-01

    Equations are presented to describe the unidirectional spreading of oil under solid ice covers floating in calm water. These spreading equations are derived using a simplified form of the Navier-Stokes equations, and cover both the constant discharge and the constant volume modes. An equation for computing final slick length is also given. Laboratory experiments using physical models were conducted to verify the equations. The experiments used oils of different viscosities, ice cover roughnesses varying from smooth to rough, and a variety of discharge conditions. The emphasis of the study was on the dominant spreading mechanism for oil under ice, which is the buoyancy-viscous phase. The laboratory results agree closely with the theoretical predictions. Discrepancies can be attributed to the experimental difficulties and errors introduced from the assumptions made in deriving the theory. The equations presented will be useful in computing spreading rate during an accidental oil spill or in contingency planning. The equations are simple to use, suitable for hand calculations or for incorporation into numerical models for oil spill simulation. 24 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  20. Modelling of fire spread in car parks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noordijk, L.M.; Lemaire, A.D.

    2005-01-01

    Currently, design codes assume that in a car park fire at most 3-4 vehicles are on fire at the same time. Recent incidents in car parks have drawn international attention to such assumptions and have raised questions as to the fire spreading mechanism and the resulting fire load on the structure.

  1. Spread of Rare Fungus from Vancouver Island

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Cryptococcus gattii, a rare fungus normally found in the tropics, has infected people and animals on Vancouver Island, Canada. Dr. David Warnock, Director, Division of Foodborne, Bacterial, and Mycotic Diseases, CDC, discusses public health concerns about further spread of this organism

  2. Energy spread in ion beam analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szilagyi, E.

    2000-01-01

    In ion beam analysis (IBA) the depth profiles are extracted from the experimentally determined energy profiles. The spectra, however, are subject to finite energy resolution of both extrinsic and intrinsic origin. Calculation of those effects such as instrumental beam, geometry and detection-related energy and angular spreads as well as energy straggling, multiple scattering and Doppler effects in the sample itself is not trivial, especially since it involves treatment of non-independent random processes. A proper account for energy spread is vital in IBA not only for correct extraction of elemental and isotopic depth profiles from the measured spectra, but already prior to data acquisition, in optimising experimental conditions to reach the required depth resolution at a certain depth. After a short review of the literature on the different energy spread contributions experimental examples are given from resonance, RBS, elastic BS and ERDA practice in which an account for energy spread contributions is essential. Some further examples illustrate extraction of structural information (roughness, pore size, etc.) from elaborated depth resolution calculation for such layer structures

  3. Energy spread in ion beam analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szilagyi, E. E-mail: szilagyi@rmki.kkfki.hu

    2000-03-01

    In ion beam analysis (IBA) the depth profiles are extracted from the experimentally determined energy profiles. The spectra, however, are subject to finite energy resolution of both extrinsic and intrinsic origin. Calculation of those effects such as instrumental beam, geometry and detection-related energy and angular spreads as well as energy straggling, multiple scattering and Doppler effects in the sample itself is not trivial, especially since it involves treatment of non-independent random processes. A proper account for energy spread is vital in IBA not only for correct extraction of elemental and isotopic depth profiles from the measured spectra, but already prior to data acquisition, in optimising experimental conditions to reach the required depth resolution at a certain depth. After a short review of the literature on the different energy spread contributions experimental examples are given from resonance, RBS, elastic BS and ERDA practice in which an account for energy spread contributions is essential. Some further examples illustrate extraction of structural information (roughness, pore size, etc.) from elaborated depth resolution calculation for such layer structures.

  4. Fast Evaporation of Spreading Droplets of Colloidal Suspensions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maki, Kara; Kumar, Satish

    2011-11-01

    When a coffee droplet dries on a countertop, a dark ring of coffee solute is left behind, a phenomenon often referred to as ``the coffee-ring effect.'' A closely related yet less-well-explored phenomenon is the formation of a layer of particles, or skin, at the surface of the droplet. In this work, we explore the behavior of a mathematical model that can qualitatively describe both phenomena. We consider a thin axisymmetric droplet of a colloidal suspension on a horizontal substrate undergoing spreading and rapid evaporation. The lubrication approximation is applied to simplify the mass and momentum conservation equations, and the colloidal particles are allowed to influence droplet rheology through their effect on the viscosity. By describing the transport of the colloidal particles with the full convection-diffusion equation, we are able to capture depthwise gradients in particle concentration and thus describe skin formation, a feature neglected in prior models of droplet evaporation. Whereas capillarity creates a flow that drives particles to the contact line to produce a coffee-ring, Marangoni flows can compete with this and promote skin formation. Increases in viscosity due to particle concentration slow down droplet dynamics, and can lead to a significant reduction in the spreading rate.

  5. Invasion and spreading of Cabomba caroliniana revealed by RAPD markers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xiaofeng; Ding, Bingyang; Gao, Shuqin; Jiang, Weimei

    2005-12-01

    Applying randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD), the genetic variation of Cabomba caroliniana Gray (cabomba or fanwort), a new alien plant in China, was analyzed in this paper. Total 143 bands, including 47 polymorphic bands, were amplified from 23 primers in 20 samples. The sampling distance was large, but its genetic diversity was low. The main results were that: (1) Cabomba, which grew and dispersed mainly in fragment, was an abundant and dominant species in freshwater, and its main dispersal mechanism was vegetative reproduction (2) Cabomba was originally introduced into China as an aquarium submerged plant. Somehow, those discarded cabomba became invasive species in the areas of Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Meicheng, and other places. (3) Although the level of genetic diversity in cabomba was low, their rapid dispersion and propagation could seriously harm to local aquatic community. Therefore, specific measure should be used to control cabomba from uncontrolled spreading and damage to local vegetation communities.

  6. Spread of white-nose syndrome on a network regulated by geography and climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maher, Sean P; Kramer, Andrew M; Pulliam, J Tomlin; Zokan, Marcus A; Bowden, Sarah E; Barton, Heather D; Magori, Krisztian; Drake, John M

    2012-01-01

    Wildlife and plant diseases can reduce biodiversity, disrupt ecosystem services and threaten human health. Emerging pathogens have displayed a variety of spatial spread patterns due to differences in host ecology, including diffusive spread from an epicentre (West Nile virus), jump dispersal on a network (foot-and-mouth disease), or a combination of these (Sudden oak death). White-nose syndrome is a highly pathogenic infectious disease of bats currently spreading across North America. Understanding how bat ecology influences this spread is crucial to management of infected and vulnerable populations. Here we show that white-nose syndrome spread is not diffusive but rather mediated by patchily distributed habitat and large-scale gradients in winter climate. Simulations predict rapid expansion and infection of most counties with caves in the contiguous United States by winter 2105-2106. Our findings show the unique pattern of white-nose syndrome spread corresponds to ecological traits of the host and suggest hypotheses for transmission mechanisms acting at the local scale.

  7. [Periodization of international spread of acupuncture-moxibustion and their characteristics at each period].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Xing-hua

    2014-11-01

    The history of international spread of Chinese acupuncture and moxibustion is divided into three sta ges in this paper, and the spreading characteristics are analyzed. The first stage is approximately from the 6th century to the end of the 15th century, during which acupuncture and moxibustion were spread to neighboring countries by personnel exchanges; the spread towards Korean peninsula, Japan and Vietnam was considered the most successful communication. The second stage lasts from the beginning of 16th century to 1970. At the early time of this stage, the employees of the Dutch East Indian Company introduced acupuncture and moxibustion to European countries through Indonesia and Japan, leading to a short and small fashion; also the United States and Australia were involved. At the late time of this stage, by medical aid teams dispatched by China government, acupuncture and moxibustion were introduced to African countries. The third stage starts from 1971. With the establishment of Sino-US diplomatic relations as an opportunity, acupuncture and moxibustion were being spread rapidly to the world through radio, TV and internet. So far it has been introduced to more than 140 countries and areas. Performing serious studies on the spreading characteristics of three stages will promote the international communication of acupuncture and moxibustion, by which the world will have a better understanding onthe broad and profound traditional cultures of China.

  8. Economic impact from unrestricted spread of potato cyst nematodes in australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodda, M; Cook, D C

    2009-12-01

    ABSTRACT Potato cyst nematodes (PCN) (Globodera spp.) are quarantine pests with serious potential economic consequences. Recent new detections in Australia, Canada, and the United States have focussed attention on the consequences of spread and economic justifications for alternative responses. Here, a full assessment of the economic impact of PCN spread from a small initial incursion is presented. Models linking spread, population growth, and economic impact are combined to estimate costs of spread without restriction in Australia. Because the characteristics of the Australian PCN populations are currently unknown, the known ranges of parameters were used to obtain cost scenarios, an approach which makes the model predictions applicable generally. Our analysis indicates that mean annual costs associated with spread of PCN would increase rapidly initially, associated with increased testing. Costs would then increase more slowly to peak at over AUD$20 million per year approximately 10 years into the future. Afterward, this annual cost would decrease slightly due to discounting factors. Mean annual costs over 20 years were $18.7 million, with a 90% confidence interval between AUD$11.9 million and AUD$27.0 million. Thus, cumulative losses to Australian agriculture over 20 years may exceed $370 million without action to prevent spread of PCN and entry to new areas.

  9. Epidemic spread over networks with agent awareness and social distancing

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2016-04-20

    We study an SIS epidemic model over an arbitrary connected network topology when the agents receive personalized information about the current epidemic state. The agents utilize their available information to either reduce interactions with their neighbors (social distancing) when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent or resume normal interactions when they believe there is low risk of becoming infected. The information is a weighted combination of three sources: 1) the average states of nodes in contact neighborhoods 2) the average states of nodes in an information network 3) a global broadcast of the average epidemic state of the network. A 2n-state Markov Chain is first considered to model the disease dynamics with awareness, from which a mean-field discrete-time n-state dynamical system is derived, where each state corresponds to an agent\\'s probability of being infected. The nonlinear model is a lower bound of its linearized version about the origin. Hence, global stability of the origin (the diseasefree equilibrium) in the linear model implies global stability in the nonlinear model. When the origin is not stable, we show the existence of a nontrivial fixed point in the awareness model, which obeys a strict partial order in relation to the nontrivial fixed point of the dynamics without distancing. In simulations, we define two performance metrics to understand the effectiveness agent awareness has in reducing the spread of an epidemic. © 2015 IEEE.

  10. Masculine sex ratios, population age structure and the potential spread of HIV in China

    OpenAIRE

    M. Giovanna Merli; Sara Hertog

    2010-01-01

    There is much speculation regarding the contribution of China's changing demography to the spread of HIV/AIDS. We employ a bio-behavioral macrosimulation model of the heterosexual spread of HIV/AIDS to evaluate the roles that China's unique demographic conditions -- (1) masculine sex ratios at birth and (2) a population age structure that reflects rapid fertility decline since the 1970's -- play in altering the market for sexual partners, thereby potentially fueling an increase...

  11. Wavelength-Hopping Time-Spreading Optical CDMA With Bipolar Codes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwong, Wing C.; Yang, Guu-Chang; Chang, Cheng-Yuan

    2005-01-01

    Two-dimensional wavelength-hopping time-spreading coding schemes have been studied recently for supporting greater numbers of subscribers and simultaneous users than conventional one-dimensional approaches in optical code-division multiple-access (OCDMA) systems. To further improve both numbers without sacrificing performance, a new code design utilizing bipolar codes for both wavelength hopping and time spreading is studied and analyzed in this paper. A rapidly programmable, integratable hardware design for this new coding scheme, based on arrayed-waveguide gratings, is also discussed.

  12. A stochastic model of depolarization enhancement due to large energy spread in electron storage rings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buon, J.

    1988-10-01

    A new semiclassical and stochastic model of spin diffusion is used to obtain numerical predictions for depolarization enhancement due to beam energy spread. It confirms the results of previous models for the synchrotron sidebands of isolated spin resonances. A satisfactory agreement is obtained with the width of a synchrotron satellite observed at SPEAR. For HERA and LEP, at Z 0 energy, the depolarization enhancement is of the order of a few units and increases very rapidly with the energy spread. Large reduction of polarization degree is expected in these rings

  13. Analytic calculation of depolarization due to large energy spread in high-energy electron storage rings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buon, J.

    1989-08-01

    A new semiclassical and stochastic model of spin diffusion is used to obtain numerical predictions for depolarization enhancement due to beam energy spread. It confirms the results of previous models for the synchrotron sidebands of spin resonances. A satisfactory agreement is obtained with the width of a synchrotron satellite observed at SPEAR. For HERA, TRISTAN, and LEP at Z 0 energy, the depolarization enhancement is of the order of a few units and increases very rapidly with the energy spread. Large reduction of polarization degree is expected in these rings

  14. JINR rapid communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    The present collection of rapid communications from JINR, Dubna, contains six separate records on test of a threshold aerogel Cherenkov counter on cosmic particles, first results of study of transversal dimension of region of cumulative particles production in d + C and d + Cu reactions for energy 2 GeV/nucleon, the evidence of σ[0 + (0 ++ 0)] meson at a mass of M π + π - = 750 ± 5 MeV/c 2 observed in π + π - combinations from the reaction np → npπ + π - at an incident momentum of P n (5.20 ± 0.16 GeV/c, inclusive spectra of protons and π - mesons emitted in 4 HeC and 12 CC interactions with total disintegration of nuclei, heavy quark-antiquark pair production by double pomeron exchange in pp and AA collisions on the CMS and global features of nucleus-nucleus collisions in ultrarelativistic domain

  15. The Epidemiology of Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae: The Impact and Evolution of a Global Menace

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstein, Robert A.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) are a serious public health threat. Infections due to these organisms are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Mechanisms of drug resistance in gram-negative bacteria (GNB) are numerous; β-lactamase genes carried on mobile genetic elements are a key mechanism for the rapid spread of antibiotic-resistant GNB worldwide. Transmissible carbapenem-resistance in Enterobacteriaceae has been recognized for the last 2 decades, but global dissemination of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) is a more recent problem that, once initiated, has been occurring at an alarming pace. In this article, we discuss the evolution of CRE, with a focus on the epidemiology of the CPE pandemic; review risk factors for colonization and infection with the most common transmissible CPE worldwide, Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase–producing K. pneumoniae; and present strategies used to halt the striking spread of these deadly pathogens. PMID:28375512

  16. Information spreading in Delay Tolerant Networks based on nodes' behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yahui; Deng, Su; Huang, Hongbin

    2014-07-01

    Information spreading in DTNs (Delay Tolerant Networks) adopts a store-carry-forward method, and nodes receive the message from others directly. However, it is hard to judge whether the information is safe in this communication mode. In this case, a node may observe other nodes' behaviors. At present, there is no theoretical model to describe the varying rule of the nodes' trusting level. In addition, due to the uncertainty of the connectivity in DTN, a node is hard to get the global state of the network. Therefore, a rational model about the node's trusting level should be a function of the node's own observing result. For example, if a node finds k nodes carrying a message, it may trust the information with probability p(k). This paper does not explore the real distribution of p(k), but instead presents a unifying theoretical framework to evaluate the performance of the information spreading in above case. This framework is an extension of the traditional SI (susceptible-infected) model, and is useful when p(k) conforms to any distribution. Simulations based on both synthetic and real motion traces show the accuracy of the framework. Finally, we explore the impact of the nodes' behaviors based on certain special distributions through numerical results.

  17. Resolving vorticity-driven lateral fire spread using the WRF-Fire coupled atmosphere–fire numerical model

    OpenAIRE

    Simpson, C. C.; Sharples, J. J.; Evans, J. P.

    2014-01-01

    Fire channelling is a form of dynamic fire behaviour, during which a wildland fire spreads rapidly across a steep lee-facing slope in a direction transverse to the background winds, and is often accompanied by a downwind extension of the active flaming region and extreme pyro-convection. Recent work using the WRF-Fire coupled atmosphere-fire model has demonstrated that fire channelling can be characterised as vorticity-driven lateral fire spread (VDLS). In t...

  18. A metric of influential spreading during contagion dynamics through the air transportation network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos Nicolaides

    Full Text Available The spread of infectious diseases at the global scale is mediated by long-range human travel. Our ability to predict the impact of an outbreak on human health requires understanding the spatiotemporal signature of early-time spreading from a specific location. Here, we show that network topology, geography, traffic structure and individual mobility patterns are all essential for accurate predictions of disease spreading. Specifically, we study contagion dynamics through the air transportation network by means of a stochastic agent-tracking model that accounts for the spatial distribution of airports, detailed air traffic and the correlated nature of mobility patterns and waiting-time distributions of individual agents. From the simulation results and the empirical air-travel data, we formulate a metric of influential spreading--the geographic spreading centrality--which accounts for spatial organization and the hierarchical structure of the network traffic, and provides an accurate measure of the early-time spreading power of individual nodes.

  19. Globalization, Sustainable Development and Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toakley, Arthur Raymond

    2004-01-01

    Globalization is a natural outcome of the sustained technological and economic growth, which originated with the Industrial Revolution in Britain during the 18th century. This path to continuing economic growth spread initially to continental Europe and North America, and brought with it the creation of large towns and substantial social change.…

  20. The Mirage of Global Democracy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Wilde, J.H.

    The literature about global democracy deals with two different types of democratization: Type 1 is about spreading democracy across sovereign states as the basis for good governance. It focuses on the quality of the state/society-nexus: the balance between coercion, reward and identity. Type 2 is

  1. Epidemic spreading on adaptively weighted scale-free networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Mengfeng; Zhang, Haifeng; Kang, Huiyan; Zhu, Guanghu; Fu, Xinchu

    2017-04-01

    We introduce three modified SIS models on scale-free networks that take into account variable population size, nonlinear infectivity, adaptive weights, behavior inertia and time delay, so as to better characterize the actual spread of epidemics. We develop new mathematical methods and techniques to study the dynamics of the models, including the basic reproduction number, and the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria. We show the disease-free equilibrium cannot undergo a Hopf bifurcation. We further analyze the effects of local information of diseases and various immunization schemes on epidemic dynamics. We also perform some stochastic network simulations which yield quantitative agreement with the deterministic mean-field approach.

  2. The genomic signatures of Shigella evolution, adaptation and geographical spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    The, Hao Chung; Thanh, Duy Pham; Holt, Kathryn E; Thomson, Nicholas R; Baker, Stephen

    2016-04-01

    Shigella spp. are some of the key pathogens responsible for the global burden of diarrhoeal disease. These facultative intracellular bacteria belong to the family Enterobacteriaceae, together with other intestinal pathogens, such as Escherichia coli and Salmonella spp. The genus Shigella comprises four different species, each consisting of several serogroups, all of which show phenotypic similarity, including invasive pathogenicity. DNA sequencing suggests that this similarity results from the convergent evolution of different Shigella spp. founders. Here, we review the evolutionary relationships between Shigella spp. and E . coli, and we highlight how the genomic plasticity of these bacteria and their acquisition of a distinctive virulence plasmid have enabled the development of such highly specialized pathogens. Furthermore, we discuss the insights that genotyping and whole-genome sequencing have provided into the phylogenetics and intercontinental spread of Shigella spp.

  3. Evaluating the links between climate, disease spread, and amphibian declines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R; Romansic, John M; McCallum, Hamish; Hudson, Peter J

    2008-11-11

    Human alteration of the environment has arguably propelled the Earth into its sixth mass extinction event and amphibians, the most threatened of all vertebrate taxa, are at the forefront. Many of the worldwide amphibian declines have been caused by the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and two contrasting hypotheses have been proposed to explain these declines. Positive correlations between global warming and Bd-related declines sparked the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis, which proposes that global warming increased cloud cover in warm years that drove the convergence of daytime and nighttime temperatures toward the thermal optimum for Bd growth. In contrast, the spatiotemporal-spread hypothesis states that Bd-related declines are caused by the introduction and spread of Bd, independent of climate change. We provide a rigorous test of these hypotheses by evaluating (i) whether cloud cover, temperature convergence, and predicted temperature-dependent Bd growth are significant positive predictors of amphibian extinctions in the genus Atelopus and (ii) whether spatial structure in the timing of these extinctions can be detected without making assumptions about the location, timing, or number of Bd emergences. We show that there is spatial structure to the timing of Atelopus spp. extinctions but that the cause of this structure remains equivocal, emphasizing the need for further molecular characterization of Bd. We also show that the reported positive multi-decade correlation between Atelopus spp. extinctions and mean tropical air temperature in the previous year is indeed robust, but the evidence that it is causal is weak because numerous other variables, including regional banana and beer production, were better predictors of these extinctions. Finally, almost all of our findings were opposite to the predictions of the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis. Although climate change is likely to play an important role in worldwide amphibian declines

  4. Interrogating globalization and culture in anthropological perspective the Indian experience

    OpenAIRE

    Mondal, Sekh

    2012-01-01

    The present article is an attempt to examine and highlight the issues of cultural globalization and globalization of cultures with particular reference to India. To deal with these, I will discuss and analyze the concepts of globalization, cultural globalization and the nature of interrelation between global and local cultures in general and of India in particular. How the non-Indian global cultural elements are spreading among the Indians and how the Indian cultural elements are diffusing ov...

  5. GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

    2009-08-01

    In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

  6. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Ye; Liu, Chuang; Zhang, Chu-Xu; Zhang, Zi-Ke

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  7. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Ye [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Liu, Chuang, E-mail: liuchuang@hznu.edu.cn [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Chu-Xu [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Zi-Ke, E-mail: zhangzike@gmail.com [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China)

    2014-01-31

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  8. Spread of edema with brain tumors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosoya, Takaaki

    1987-01-01

    Cerebral edema associated with brain tumors is visualized on CT as a hypodensity lesion involving mainly the white matter. The detailed features of its evolution were investigated in a review of CT examinations performed on 56 patients with brain tumors, with the following results. 1. The susceptibility to edema varied according to the types of fibers. Association fibers were more sensitive to edema than projection and commissural fibers. 2. The edema had a characteristic of spreading along not only the association fibers but also the projection and commissural fibers. 3. The spread of edema along the association fibers was interupted in sites of convergence of the fibers such as the external capsule and just beneath the central sulcus in the certrum semiovale. 4. In some cases with intra-axial tumors, the edema extended mainly in the projection and commissural fibers considered to be more resistant to it. For example, in cases with parietal and temporal intra-axial tumors, the posterior limb of the internal capsule was often more edematous than the external capsule. 5. The edema associated with meningioma had a characteristic of spreading mainly along the association fibers. When situated close to the corpus callosum, however, the commissural fibers were also involved. Edema extending mainly in the internal capsule, thus, was rarely observed in meningioma. 6. There was unique pattern of spread of edema in frontal tumors, which differentiated their CT pattern. Therefore, the location of the tumor could be correctly diagnosed by the pattern of the edema extension, even near the central sulcus or in the operculum region. (author)

  9. Spreading of a relativistic wave packet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almeida, C.; Jabs, A.

    1983-01-01

    A simple general proof that the spreading velocity of a relativistic free wave packet of the Broglie waves is limited is presented. For a wide class of packets it is confirmed that the limit is the velocity of light, and it is shown how this limit is approached when the width Δp of the wave packet in momentum space tends to infinity and the minimum width σ(t=o) in ordinary space tends to zero. (Author) [pt

  10. The Equilibrium Spreading Tension of Pulmonary Surfactant

    OpenAIRE

    Dagan, Maayan P.; Hall, Stephen B.

    2015-01-01

    Monomolecular films at an air/water interface coexist at the equilibrium spreading tension (γe) with the bulk phase from which they form. For individual phospholipids, γe is single-valued, and separates conditions at which hydrated vesicles adsorb from tensions at which overcompressed monolayers collapse. With pulmonary surfactant, isotherms show that monolayers compressed on the surface of bubbles coexist with the three-dimensional collapsed phase over a range of surface tensions. γe therefo...

  11. Physical model for membrane protrusions during spreading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chamaraux, F; Ali, O; Fourcade, B; Keller, S; Bruckert, F

    2008-01-01

    During cell spreading onto a substrate, the kinetics of the contact area is an observable quantity. This paper is concerned with a physical approach to modeling this process in the case of ameboid motility where the membrane detaches itself from the underlying cytoskeleton at the leading edge. The physical model we propose is based on previous reports which highlight that membrane tension regulates cell spreading. Using a phenomenological feedback loop to mimic stress-dependent biochemistry, we show that the actin polymerization rate can be coupled to the stress which builds up at the margin of the contact area between the cell and the substrate. In the limit of small variation of membrane tension, we show that the actin polymerization rate can be written in a closed form. Our analysis defines characteristic lengths which depend on elastic properties of the membrane–cytoskeleton complex, such as the membrane–cytoskeleton interaction, and on molecular parameters, the rate of actin polymerization. We discuss our model in the case of axi-symmetric and non-axi-symmetric spreading and we compute the characteristic time scales as a function of fundamental elastic constants such as the strength of membrane–cytoskeleton adherence

  12. Diffusion, spread, and migration of botulinum toxin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez-Castaneda, Juan; Jankovic, Joseph; Comella, Cynthia; Dashtipour, Khashayar; Fernandez, Hubert H; Mari, Zoltan

    2013-11-01

    Botulinum toxin (BoNT) is an acetylcholine release inhibitor and a neuromuscular blocking agent used for the treatment of a variety of neurologic and medical conditions. The efficacy and safety of BoNT depends on accurate selection and identification of intended targets but also may be determined by other factors, including physical spread of the molecule from the injection site, passive diffusion, and migration to distal sites via axonal or hematogenous transport. The passive kinetic dispersion of the toxin away from the injection site in a gradient-dependent manner may also play a role in toxin spread. In addition to unique properties of the various BoNT products, volume and dilution may also influence local and systemic distribution of BoNT. Most of the local and remote complications of BoNT injections are thought to be due to unwanted spread or diffusion of the toxin's biologic activity into adjacent and distal muscles. Despite widespread therapeutic and cosmetic use of BoNT over more than three decades, there is a remarkable paucity of published data on the mechanisms of distribution and its effects on clinical outcomes. The primary aim of this article is to critically review the available experimental and clinical literature and place it in the practical context. © 2013 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

  13. Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fofana, Abdou Moutalab; Hurford, Amy

    2017-05-05

    An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  14. Contributions of Different Cloud Types to Feedbacks and Rapid Adjustments in CMIP5*

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zelinka, Mark D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison; Klein, Stephen A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison; Taylor, Karl E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison; Andrews, Timothy [Met Office Hadley Center, Exeter (United Kingdom); Webb, Mark J. [Met Office Hadley Center, Exeter (United Kingdom); Gregory, Jonathan M. [Univ. of Reading, Exeter (United Kingdom). National Center for Atmospheric Science; Forster, Piers M. [Univ. of Leeds (United Kingdom)

    2013-07-01

    When using five climate model simulations of the response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2, the authors perform the first simultaneous model intercomparison of cloud feedbacks and rapid radiative adjustments with cloud masking effects removed, partitioned among changes in cloud types and gross cloud properties. After CO2 quadrupling, clouds exhibit a rapid reduction in fractional coverage, cloud-top pressure, and optical depth, with each contributing equally to a 1.1 W m-2 net cloud radiative adjustment, primarily from shortwave radiation. Rapid reductions in midlevel clouds and optically thick clouds are important in reducing planetary albedo in every model. As the planet warms, clouds become fewer, higher, and thicker, and global mean net cloud feedback is positive in all but one model and results primarily from increased trapping of longwave radiation. As was true for earlier models, high cloud changes are the largest contributor to intermodel spread in longwave and shortwave cloud feedbacks, but low cloud changes are the largest contributor to the mean and spread in net cloud feedback. The importance of the negative optical depth feedback relative to the amount feedback at high latitudes is even more marked than in earlier models. Furthermore, the authors show that the negative longwave cloud adjustment inferred in previous studies is primarily caused by a 1.3 W m-2 cloud masking of CO2 forcing. Properly accounting for cloud masking increases net cloud feedback by 0.3 W m-2 K-1, whereas accounting for rapid adjustments reduces by 0.14 W m-2 K-1 the ensemble mean net cloud feedback through a combination of smaller positive cloud amount and altitude feedbacks and larger negative optical depth feedbacks.

  15. Global Reproduction and Transformation of Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobin, Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    Neoliberalism has spread globally and operates hegemonically in many fields, including science education. I use historical auto/ethnography to examine global referents that have mediated the production of contemporary science education to explore how the roles of teachers and learners are related to macrostructures such as neoliberalism and…

  16. Export Processing Zones and Global Class Formation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neveling, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    This chapter is concerned with one of the most striking developments in the global political economy of capitalism after the Second World War; the rise of export processing zones and special economic zones. Building on long-term ethnohistorical research on the zones’ global spread from one zone in

  17. Aristides Leão: a birth centennial homage with comments on his spreading depression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliasz Engelhardt

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The year of 2014 is the birth centenary of Aristides Azevedo Pacheco Leão (1914-1993, and also marks seventy years of the publication of his discovery of the novel electrophysiological phenomenon, named by him “spreading depression” (SD, soon designated “Leão’s wave” or “Leão’s spreading depression”. This was a remarkable scientific milestone, and the author must be celebrated for this achievement, as the studies he triggered proceeded worldwide, with new concepts, as spreading depolarization, until the present days. Robust experimental and clinical evidence emerged to suggest that these and related electrophysiological phenomena are involved in the mechanisms of migraine aura, acute cerebrovascular diseases, traumatic brain injury, transient global amnesia, epileptic seizures, and their pathophysiological characteristics come to offer new therapeutic perspectives. He was a remarkable and complex personality, and the authors remit the readers to a paper where his personal life is contemplated.

  18. Rapid shallow breathing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tachypnea; Breathing - rapid and shallow; Fast shallow breathing; Respiratory rate - rapid and shallow ... Shallow, rapid breathing has many possible medical causes, including: Asthma Blood clot in an artery in the ...

  19. Scale-free correlations in the geographical spreading of obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallos, Lazaros; Barttfeld, Pablo; Havlin, Shlomo; Sigman, Mariano; Makse, Hernan

    2012-02-01

    Obesity levels have been universally increasing. A crucial problem is to determine the influence of global and local drivers behind the obesity epidemic, to properly guide effective policies. Despite the numerous factors that affect the obesity evolution, we show a remarkable regularity expressed in a predictable pattern of spatial long-range correlations in the geographical spreading of obesity. We study the spatial clustering of obesity and a number of related health and economic indicators, and we use statistical physics methods to characterize the growth of the resulting clusters. The resulting scaling exponents allow us to broadly classify these indicators into two separate universality classes, weakly or strongly correlated. Weak correlations are found in generic human activity such as population distribution and the growth of the whole economy. Strong correlations are recovered, among others, for obesity, diabetes, and the food industry sectors associated with food consumption. Obesity turns out to be a global problem where local details are of little importance. The long-range correlations suggest influence that extends to large scales, hinting that the physical model of obesity clustering can be mapped to a long-range correlated percolation process.

  20. Characterizing the rapid spread of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV through an animal food manufacturing facility.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loni L Schumacher

    Full Text Available New regulatory and consumer demands highlight the importance of animal feed as a part of our national food safety system. Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV is the first viral pathogen confirmed to be widely transmissible in animal food. Because the potential for viral contamination in animal food is not well characterized, the objectives of this study were to 1 observe the magnitude of virus contamination in an animal food manufacturing facility, and 2 investigate a proposed method, feed sequencing, to decrease virus decontamination on animal food-contact surfaces. A U.S. virulent PEDV isolate was used to inoculate 50 kg swine feed, which was mixed, conveyed, and discharged into bags using pilot-scale feed manufacturing equipment. Surfaces were swabbed and analyzed for the presence of PEDV RNA by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR. Environmental swabs indicated complete contamination of animal food-contact surfaces (0/40 vs. 48/48, positive baseline samples/total baseline samples, positive subsequent samples/total subsequent samples, respectively; P < 0.05 and near complete contamination of non-animal food-contact surfaces (0/24 vs. 16/18, positive baseline samples/total baseline samples, positive subsequent samples/total subsequent samples, respectively; P < 0.05. Flushing animal food-contact surfaces with low-risk feed is commonly used to reduce cross-contamination in animal feed manufacturing. Thus, four subsequent 50 kg batches of virus-free swine feed were manufactured using the same system to test its impact on decontaminating animal food-contact surfaces. Even after 4 subsequent sequences, animal food-contact surfaces retained viral RNA (28/33 positive samples/total samples, with conveying system being more contaminated than the mixer. A bioassay to test infectivity of dust from animal food-contact surfaces failed to produce infectivity. This study demonstrates the potential widespread viral contamination of surfaces in an animal food manufacturing facility and the difficulty of removing contamination using conventional feed sequencing, which underscores the importance for preventing viruses from entering and contaminating such facilities.

  1. Globalization of healthcare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Globalization-the increasing transnational circulation of money, goods, people, ideas, and information worldwide-is generally recognized as one of the most powerful forces shaping our current and future history. How is it affecting healthcare, and in that context, what is the purpose and significance of Global Advances in Health and Medicine (GAHM), publisher of this journal? Our goal is not homogenization but rather to provide an opportunity for integration, convergence, and collaboration across cultures. By respecting and conserving the richness and diversity of each new medicine, we embrace globalization. Globalization is of course not new; it began in the Renaissance and particularly with the 15th- and 16th-century voyages of exploration by Columbus, Magellan, and others. Since the beginning of time, there have been interactions and exchanges among different peoples and cultures. However, the current magnitude of globalization is unprecedented and yet still expanding rapidly.

  2. Global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houghton, John

    2005-01-01

    'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources

  3. Default Spread dan Term Spread sebagai Variabel Proxy Siklus Bisnis pada Model Fama-French

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Hendra

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to apply the Fama-French models and test the effect of alternative variable of bond yield spread, default spread (RBBB – RAAA and RAAA – RF, and the term spread (RSUN10-RSUN1, as proxy variables of the business cycle, in IDX stock data during 2005-2010. Four types of asset pricing models tested are Sharpe-Lintner CAPM, Fama-French models, Hwang et al.model, and hybrid model. The results showed that the size effect and value effect has an impact on excess stock returns. Slopes of market beta, SMB, and HML are more sensitive to stock big size and high B / M. Default spreads and term spreads in Hwang et al. model can explain the value effect, and weakly explain the size effect, meanwhile the power of explanation disappeared on Hybrid models. Based on the assessment adjusted R2 and the frequency of rejection of non-zero alpha, is found that the hybrid model is the most suitable model.  

  4. Spreading in online social networks: the role of social reinforcement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Muhua; Lü, Linyuan; Zhao, Ming

    2013-07-01

    Some epidemic spreading models are usually applied to analyze the propagation of opinions or news. However, the dynamics of epidemic spreading and information or behavior spreading are essentially different in many aspects. Centola's experiments [Science 329, 1194 (2010)] on behavior spreading in online social networks showed that the spreading is faster and broader in regular networks than in random networks. This result contradicts with the former understanding that random networks are preferable for spreading than regular networks. To describe the spreading in online social networks, a unknown-known-approved-exhausted four-status model was proposed, which emphasizes the effect of social reinforcement and assumes that the redundant signals can improve the probability of approval (i.e., the spreading rate). Performing the model on regular and random networks, it is found that our model can well explain the results of Centola's experiments on behavior spreading and some former studies on information spreading in different parameter space. The effects of average degree and network size on behavior spreading process are further analyzed. The results again show the importance of social reinforcement and are accordant with Centola's anticipation that increasing the network size or decreasing the average degree will enlarge the difference of the density of final approved nodes between regular and random networks. Our work complements the former studies on spreading dynamics, especially the spreading in online social networks where the information usually requires individuals' confirmations before being transmitted to others.

  5. Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayaz Hyder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve

  6. Vectorised Spreading Activation algorithm for centrality measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Troussov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Spreading Activation is a family of graph-based algorithms widely used in areas such as information retrieval, epidemic models, and recommender systems. In this paper we introduce a novel Spreading Activation (SA method that we call Vectorised Spreading Activation (VSA. VSA algorithms, like “traditional” SA algorithms, iteratively propagate the activation from the initially activated set of nodes to the other nodes in a network through outward links. The level of the node’s activation could be used as a centrality measurement in accordance with dynamic model-based view of centrality that focuses on the outcomes for nodes in a network where something is flowing from node to node across the edges. Representing the activation by vectors allows the use of the information about various dimensionalities of the flow and the dynamic of the flow. In this capacity, VSA algorithms can model multitude of complex multidimensional network flows. We present the results of numerical simulations on small synthetic social networks and multi­dimensional network models of folksonomies which show that the results of VSA propagation are more sensitive to the positions of the initial seed and to the community structure of the network than the results produced by traditional SA algorithms. We tentatively conclude that the VSA methods could be instrumental to develop scalable and computationally efficient algorithms which could achieve synergy between computation of centrality indexes with detection of community structures in networks. Based on our preliminary results and on improvements made over previous studies, we foresee advances and applications in the current state of the art of this family of algorithms and their applications to centrality measurement.

  7. Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive

  8. Directional spread parameter at intermediate water depth

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    SanilKumar, V.; Deo, M.C.; Anand, N.M.; AshokKumar, K.

    ’ involves only the significant wave height, zero crossing wave period and water depth, the spreading function based on ‘s 3 ’ can be used for practical appli- cation. In the model based on ‘s 3 ’ the mean wave direction is an input and this has...-linearity parameter can be recommended for practical use as it provides an averaged distribution. Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the Department of Science and Technology, New Delhi, for funding the project titled “Directional wave modelling...

  9. Trigeminal perineural spread of renal cell carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hornik, Alejandro; Rosenblum, Jordan; Biller, Jose

    2012-01-01

    A 55-year-old man had a five-day history of “pins and needles” sensation on the left chin. Examination showed decreased pinprick sensation on the territory of the left mandibular branch of the trigeminal nerve. Brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with gadolinium showed enhancement involving the left mandibular branch. Computed tomography (CT) of the chest, abdomen, and pelvis showed a left kidney mass diagnosed as renal carcinoma following nephrectomy. The “numb-chin” syndrome heralds or accompanies systemic malignancies. Trigeminal perineural spread has been well-documented in head and neck neoplasms, however, to our knowledge, it has not been reported in renal neoplasms. (author)

  10. Simultaneous spreading and evaporation: recent developments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, Sergey; Trybala, Anna; Rubio, Ramon G; Kovalchuk, Nina; Starov, Victor; Velarde, Manuel G

    2014-04-01

    The recent progress in theoretical and experimental studies of simultaneous spreading and evaporation of liquid droplets on solid substrates is discussed for pure liquids including nanodroplets, nanosuspensions of inorganic particles (nanofluids) and surfactant solutions. Evaporation of both complete wetting and partial wetting liquids into a nonsaturated vapour atmosphere are considered. However, the main attention is paid to the case of partial wetting when the hysteresis of static contact angle takes place. In the case of complete wetting the spreading/evaporation process proceeds in two stages. A theory was suggested for this case and a good agreement with available experimental data was achieved. In the case of partial wetting the spreading/evaporation of a sessile droplet of pure liquid goes through four subsequent stages: (i) the initial stage, spreading, is relatively short (1-2 min) and therefore evaporation can be neglected during this stage; during the initial stage the contact angle reaches the value of advancing contact angle and the radius of the droplet base reaches its maximum value, (ii) the first stage of evaporation is characterised by the constant value of the radius of the droplet base; the value of the contact angle during the first stage decreases from static advancing to static receding contact angle; (iii) during the second stage of evaporation the contact angle remains constant and equal to its receding value, while the radius of the droplet base decreases; and (iv) at the third stage of evaporation both the contact angle and the radius of the droplet base decrease until the drop completely disappears. It has been shown theoretically and confirmed experimentally that during the first and second stages of evaporation the volume of droplet to power 2/3 decreases linearly with time. The universal dependence of the contact angle during the first stage and of the radius of the droplet base during the second stage on the reduced time has been

  11. Dynamic Modeling of CDS Index Tranche Spreads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dorn, Jochen

    This paper provides a Market Model which implies a dynamics for standardized CDS index tranche spreads, i.e. tranches which securitise CDS index series and dispose of predefined subordination. This model is useful for pricing options on tranches with future Issue Dates as well as for modeling...... options on structured credit derivatives. With the upcoming regulation of the CDS market in perspective, the model presented here is also an attempt to face the effects on pricing approaches provoked by an eventual Clearing Chamber . It becomes also possible to calibrate Index Tranche Options with bespoke...... tenors/tranche subordination to market data obtained by more liquid Index Tranche Options with standard characteristics....

  12. Ensemble Forecasts with Useful Skill-Spread Relationships for African meningitis and Asia Streamflow Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopson, T. M.

    2014-12-01

    One potential benefit of an ensemble prediction system (EPS) is its capacity to forecast its own forecast error through the ensemble spread-error relationship. In practice, an EPS is often quite limited in its ability to represent the variable expectation of forecast error through the variable dispersion of the ensemble, and perhaps more fundamentally, in its ability to provide enough variability in the ensembles dispersion to make the skill-spread relationship even potentially useful (irrespective of whether the EPS is well-calibrated or not). In this paper we examine the ensemble skill-spread relationship of an ensemble constructed from the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) dataset of global forecasts and a combination of multi-model and post-processing approaches. Both of the multi-model and post-processing techniques are based on quantile regression (QR) under a step-wise forward selection framework leading to ensemble forecasts with both good reliability and sharpness. The methodology utilizes the ensemble's ability to self-diagnose forecast instability to produce calibrated forecasts with informative skill-spread relationships. A context for these concepts is provided by assessing the constructed ensemble in forecasting district-level humidity impacting the incidence of meningitis in the meningitis belt of Africa, and in forecasting flooding events in the Brahmaputra and Ganges basins of South Asia.

  13. Entrepreneurship in the World: The Analysis of the Global Entrepreneurship Index in the Period 2015-2017

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grădinaru Cătălin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The last decades have witnessed the rapid spread of entrepreneurship all over the world. Consequently, the state of entrepreneurship has significantly improved. The aim of the paper is to present the evolution of the top ten countries in the world according to the Global Entrepreneurship Index in the period 2015-2017. The research methodology is based on a quantitative method. The paper shows that the top ten countries in the world according to this index in the last three years were the same in a high proportion and demonstrates the absolute domination of the United States of America and the growing presence of the European countries.

  14. Infections Unlikely to be Spread Through Swimming Pools

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Water Home Infections Unlikely to be Spread Through Swimming Pools Language: English (US) Español (Spanish) Recommend on ... included below. Infections Unlikely to be Spread by Swimming Pools Head Lice Head lice are unlikely to ...

  15. Spreading depolarisations and outcome after traumatic brain injury

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartings, Jed A; Bullock, M Ross; Okonkwo, David O

    2011-01-01

    Pathological waves of spreading mass neuronal depolarisation arise repeatedly in injured, but potentially salvageable, grey matter in 50-60% of patients after traumatic brain injury (TBI). We aimed to ascertain whether spreading depolarisations are independently associated with unfavourable...

  16. Stopping the Spread of Germs at Home, Work and School

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Pandemic Other Stopping the Spread of Germs at Home, Work & School Language: English (US) Español Recommend on Facebook ... everyone from getting germs or spreading germs at home, work, or school. Clean and disinfect surfaces or objects. ...

  17. Recording, analysis, and interpretation of spreading depolarizations in neurointensive care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dreier, Jens P; Fabricius, Martin; Ayata, Cenk

    2017-01-01

    Spreading depolarizations (SD) are waves of abrupt, near-complete breakdown of neuronal transmembrane ion gradients, are the largest possible pathophysiologic disruption of viable cerebral gray matter, and are a crucial mechanism of lesion development. Spreading depolarizations are increasingly r...

  18. Performance Analysis of Cell-Phone Worm Spreading in Cellular Networks through Opportunistic Communications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YAHUI, W.

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Worms spreading directly between cell-phones over short-range radio (Bluetooth, WiFi, etc. are increasing rapidly. Communication by these technologies is opportunistic and has very close relation with the social characteristics of the phone carriers. In this paper, we try to evaluate the impact of different characteristics on the spreading performance of worms. On the other hand, the behaviors of worms may have certain impact, too. For example, worms may make phones be completely dysfunctional and these phones can be seen as killed. We study the impact of the killing speed. Using the Markov model, we propose some theoretical models to evaluate the spreading performance in different cases. Simulation results show the accuracy of our models. Numerical results show that if users do not believe the data coming from others easily, the worms may bring less damage. Surprisingly, if the users are more willing to install the anti-virus software, the worms may bring bigger damage when the software becomes to be outdated with high probability. Though the worms can bring big damage on the network temporarily by killing phones rapidly, numerical results show that this behavior may decrease the total damage in the long time. Therefore, killing nodes more rapidly may be not optimal for worms.

  19. Dynamics of epidemic spreading model with drug-resistant variation on scale-free networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Chen; Li, Tao; Zhang, Wu; Dong, Jing

    2018-03-01

    Considering the influence of the virus' drug-resistant variation, a novel SIVRS (susceptible-infected-variant-recovered-susceptible) epidemic spreading model with variation characteristic on scale-free networks is proposed in this paper. By using the mean-field theory, the spreading dynamics of the model is analyzed in detail. Then, the basic reproductive number R0 and equilibriums are derived. Studies show that the existence of disease-free equilibrium is determined by the basic reproductive number R0. The relationships between the basic reproductive number R0, the variation characteristic and the topology of the underlying networks are studied in detail. Furthermore, our studies prove the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium, the permanence of epidemic and the global attractivity of endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations are performed to confirm the analytical results.

  20. Spreading dynamics of an e-commerce preferential information model on scale-free networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Chen; Li, Tao; Guan, Zhi-Hong; Wang, Yuanmei; Liu, Xiongding

    2017-02-01

    In order to study the influence of the preferential degree and the heterogeneity of underlying networks on the spread of preferential e-commerce information, we propose a novel susceptible-infected-beneficial model based on scale-free networks. The spreading dynamics of the preferential information are analyzed in detail using the mean-field theory. We determine the basic reproductive number and equilibria. The theoretical analysis indicates that the basic reproductive number depends mainly on the preferential degree and the topology of the underlying networks. We prove the global stability of the information-elimination equilibrium. The permanence of preferential information and the global attractivity of the information-prevailing equilibrium are also studied in detail. Some numerical simulations are presented to verify the theoretical results.

  1. Preoperative evaluation of locally spreaded pelvic tumors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baramia, M.; Todua, F.; Gotsadze, D.; Khutulashvili, N.; Lashkhi, K.; Nadareishvili, A.

    1998-01-01

    Am of the study: preoperative evaluation of patients with locally advanced pelvic tumors subjected to pelvic exenteration. Determine operability to avoid explorative laparatomies, which cause serious complications in these patients. Evaluate condition of urinary system in case of this pathology. Materials and methods: 34 patients with locally advanced pelvic tumors where pelvic exenteration was attempted were studied. Along with other methods of diagnostic CT and MRI were performed. Results: In all patients secondary involvement of the urinary bladder was noted. In 30 patients CT and MR findings were confirmed (88,2%) intraoperatively and different types of pelvic organs exenteration were performed. In 1 case spread of tomoruos infiltrate to the pelvic wall and common iliac vessels was detected intraoperatively (patient had history of radiation therapy). In 2 cases carcinomatosis of the peritoneum was found. In 1 case involvement of urinary bladder was simulated by close attachment of enlarged uterus. Conclusion: Obtained results show, that CT and MR are highly informative methods of disease spread evaluation and thus determining operability. Radiotherapy performed prior to operation sets difficulties in differentiation for tumourous infiltrate and post-radiotherapy changes in pelvis. (Full text)

  2. A lattice model for influenza spreading.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonella Liccardo

    Full Text Available We construct a stochastic SIR model for influenza spreading on a D-dimensional lattice, which represents the dynamic contact network of individuals. An age distributed population is placed on the lattice and moves on it. The displacement from a site to a nearest neighbor empty site, allows individuals to change the number and identities of their contacts. The dynamics on the lattice is governed by an attractive interaction between individuals belonging to the same age-class. The parameters, which regulate the pattern dynamics, are fixed fitting the data on the age-dependent daily contact numbers, furnished by the Polymod survey. A simple SIR transmission model with a nearest neighbors interaction and some very basic adaptive mobility restrictions complete the model. The model is validated against the age-distributed Italian epidemiological data for the influenza A(H1N1 during the [Formula: see text] season, with sensible predictions for the epidemiological parameters. For an appropriate topology of the lattice, we find that, whenever the accordance between the contact patterns of the model and the Polymod data is satisfactory, there is a good agreement between the numerical and the experimental epidemiological data. This result shows how rich is the information encoded in the average contact patterns of individuals, with respect to the analysis of the epidemic spreading of an infectious disease.

  3. Principles of spread-spectrum communication systems

    CERN Document Server

    Torrieri, Don

    2015-01-01

    This book provides a concise but lucid explanation of the fundamentals of spread-spectrum systems with an emphasis on theoretical principles. The choice of specific topics is tempered by the author’s judgment of their practical significance and interest to both researchers and system designers. The book contains many improved derivations of the classical theory and presents the latest research results that bring the reader to the frontier of the field. This third edition includes new coverage of topics such as CDMA networks, acquisition and synchronization in DS-CDMA cellular networks, hopsets for FH-CDMA ad hoc networks, implications of information theory, the central limit theorem, the power spectral density of FH/CPM complex envelopes, adaptive filters, and adaptive arrays.   ·         Focuses on the fundamentals of spread-spectrum communication systems and provides current examples of their applications ·         Includes problem sets at the end of each chapter to assist readers in co...

  4. Wave-like spread of Ebola Zaire.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available In the past decade the Zaire strain of Ebola virus (ZEBOV has emerged repeatedly into human populations in central Africa and caused massive die-offs of gorillas and chimpanzees. We tested the view that emergence events are independent and caused by ZEBOV variants that have been long resident at each locality. Phylogenetic analyses place the earliest known outbreak at Yambuku, Democratic Republic of Congo, very near to the root of the ZEBOV tree, suggesting that viruses causing all other known outbreaks evolved from a Yambuku-like virus after 1976. The tendency for earlier outbreaks to be directly ancestral to later outbreaks suggests that outbreaks are epidemiologically linked and may have occurred at the front of an advancing wave. While the ladder-like phylogenetic structure could also bear the signature of positive selection, our statistical power is too weak to reach a conclusion in this regard. Distances among outbreaks indicate a spread rate of about 50 km per year that remains consistent across spatial scales. Viral evolution is clocklike, and sequences show a high level of small-scale spatial structure. Genetic similarity decays with distance at roughly the same rate at all spatial scales. Our analyses suggest that ZEBOV has recently spread across the region rather than being long persistent at each outbreak locality. Controlling the impact of Ebola on wild apes and human populations may be more feasible than previously recognized.

  5. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.; Xiao, G.

    2012-01-01

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  6. Epidemic spreading on preferred degree adaptive networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolad, Shivakumar; Liu, Wenjia; Schmittmann, B; Zia, R K P

    2012-01-01

    We study the standard SIS model of epidemic spreading on networks where individuals have a fluctuating number of connections around a preferred degree κ. Using very simple rules for forming such preferred degree networks, we find some unusual statistical properties not found in familiar Erdös-Rényi or scale free networks. By letting κ depend on the fraction of infected individuals, we model the behavioral changes in response to how the extent of the epidemic is perceived. In our models, the behavioral adaptations can be either 'blind' or 'selective'--depending on whether a node adapts by cutting or adding links to randomly chosen partners or selectively, based on the state of the partner. For a frozen preferred network, we find that the infection threshold follows the heterogeneous mean field result λ(c)/μ = / and the phase diagram matches the predictions of the annealed adjacency matrix (AAM) approach. With 'blind' adaptations, although the epidemic threshold remains unchanged, the infection level is substantially affected, depending on the details of the adaptation. The 'selective' adaptive SIS models are most interesting. Both the threshold and the level of infection changes, controlled not only by how the adaptations are implemented but also how often the nodes cut/add links (compared to the time scales of the epidemic spreading). A simple mean field theory is presented for the selective adaptations which capture the qualitative and some of the quantitative features of the infection phase diagram.

  7. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore); Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A-STAR), Singapore 138632 (Singapore); Xiao, G., E-mail: egxxiao@ntu.edu.sg [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

    2012-09-03

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  8. Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barmak, D. H.; Dorso, C. O.; Otero, M.

    2016-04-01

    We explored the effect of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue with a stochastic model that takes into account the epidemiological dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and humans, with different mobility patterns of the human population. We observed that human mobility strongly affects the spread of infection by increasing the final size and by changing the morphology of the epidemic outbreaks. When the spreading of the disease is driven only by mosquito dispersal (flight), a main central focus expands diffusively. On the contrary, when human mobility is taken into account, multiple foci appear throughout the evolution of the outbreaks. These secondary foci generated throughout the outbreaks could be of little importance according to their mass or size compared with the largest main focus. However, the coalescence of these foci with the main one generates an effect, through which the latter develops a size greater than the one obtained in the case driven only by mosquito dispersal. This increase in growth rate due to human mobility and the coalescence of the foci are particularly relevant in temperate cities such as the city of Buenos Aires, since they give more possibilities to the outbreak to grow before the arrival of the low-temperature season. The findings of this work indicate that human mobility could be the main driving force in the dynamics of vector epidemics.

  9. Governance by Diffusion: Transnational Municipal Networks and the Spread of Local Climate Strategies in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Lukas Hakelberg

    2014-01-01

    Cities have become crucial actors for the global governance of climate change. Their increased activity in this field is reflected by the rising number of adoptions of local climate strategies in an original sample of 274 European cities from 1992 to 2009. Using event history analysis, I find that this spread is promoted by transnational municipal networks (TMNs) successfully deploying strategies for governance by diffusion, their impact exceeding that of most alternative explanatory factors ...

  10. Information spread in networks: Games, optimal control, and stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanafer, Ali

    This thesis focuses on designing efficient mechanisms for controlling information spread in networks. We consider two models for information spread. The first one is the well-known distributed averaging dynamics. The second model is a nonlinear one that describes virus spread in computer and biological networks. We seek to design optimal, robust, and stabilizing controllers under practical constraints. For distributed averaging networks, we study the interaction between a network designer and an adversary. We consider two types of attacks on the network. In Attack-I, the adversary strategically disconnects a set of links to prevent the nodes from reaching consensus. Meanwhile, the network designer assists the nodes in reaching consensus by changing the weights of a limited number of links in the network. We formulate two problems to describe this competition where the order in which the players act is reversed in the two problems. Although the canonical equations provided by the Pontryagin's Maximum Principle (MP) seem to be intractable, we provide an alternative characterization for the optimal strategies that makes connection to potential theory. Further, we provide a sufficient condition for the existence of a saddle-point equilibrium (SPE) for the underlying zero-sum game. In Attack-II, the designer and the adversary are both capable of altering the measurements of all nodes in the network by injecting global signals. We impose two constraints on both players: a power constraint and an energy constraint. We assume that the available energy to each player is not sufficient to operate at maximum power throughout the horizon of the game. We show the existence of an SPE and derive the optimal strategies in closed form for this attack scenario. As an alternative to the "network designer vs. adversary" framework, we investigate the possibility of stabilizing unknown network diffusion processes using a distributed mechanism, where the uncertainty is due to an attack

  11. Global warning, global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benarde, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    This book provides insights into the formidable array of issues which, in a warmer world, could impinge upon every facet of readers lives. It examines climatic change and long-term implications of global warming for the ecosystem. Topics include the ozone layer and how it works; the greenhouse effect; the dangers of imbalance and its effects on human and animal life; disruptions to the basic ecology of the planet; and the real scientific evidence for and against aberrant climatic shifts. The author also examines workable social and political programs and changes that must be instituted to avoid ecological disaster

  12. A fundamental look at fire spread in California chaparral

    Science.gov (United States)

    David R. Weise; Thomas Fletcher; Larry Baxter; Shankar Mahalingam; Xiangyang Zhou; Patrick Pagni; Rod Linn; Bret Butler

    2004-01-01

    The USDA Forest Service National Fire Plan funded a research program to study fire spread in live fuels of the southwestern United States. In the U.S. current operational fire spread models do not distinguish between live and dead fuels in a sophisticated manner because the study of live fuels has been limited. The program is experimentally examining fire spread at 3...

  13. The joint estimation of term structures and credit spreads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houweling, P.; Hoek, J.; Kleibergen, F.R.

    1999-01-01

    We present a new framework for the joint estimation of the default-free government term structure and corporate credit spread curves. By using a data set of liquid, German mark denominated bonds, we show that this yields more realistic spreads than traditionally obtained spread curves that result

  14. Forecasting oil price movements with crack spread futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murat, Atilim; Tokat, Ekin

    2009-01-01

    In oil markets, the crack spread refers to the crude-product price relationship. Refiners are major participants in oil markets and they are primarily exposed to the crack spread. In other words, refiner activity is substantially driven by the objective of protecting the crack spread. Moreover, oil consumers are active participants in the oil hedging market and they are frequently exposed to the crack spread. From another perspective, hedge funds are heavily using crack spread to speculate in oil markets. Based on the high volume of crack spread futures trading in oil markets, the question we want to raise is whether the crack spread futures can be a good predictor of oil price movements. We investigated first whether there is a causal relationship between the crack spread futures and the spot oil markets in a vector error correction framework. We found the causal impact of crack spread futures on spot oil market both in the long- and the short-run after April 2003 where we detected a structural break in the model. To examine the forecasting performance, we use the random walk model (RWM) as a benchmark, and we also evaluate the forecasting power of crack spread futures against the crude oil futures. The results showed that (a) both the crack spread futures and the crude oil futures outperformed the RWM; and (b) the crack spread futures are almost as good as the crude oil futures in predicting the movements in spot oil markets. (author)

  15. Spread F – an old equatorial aeronomy problem finally resolved?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. F. Woodman

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available One of the oldest scientific topics in Equatorial Aeronomy is related to Spread-F. It includes all our efforts to understand the physical mechanisms responsible for the existence of ionospheric F-region irregularities, the spread of the traces in a night-time equatorial ionogram – hence its name – and all other manifestations of the same. It was observed for the first time as an abnormal ionogram in Huancayo, about 70 years ago. But only recently are we coming to understand the physical mechanisms responsible for its occurrence and its capricious day to day variability. Several additional techniques have been used to reveal the spatial and temporal characteristics of the F-region irregularities responsible for the phenomenon. Among them we have, in chronological order, radio star scintillations, trans-equatorial radio propagation, satellite scintillations, radar backscatter, satellite and rocket in situ measurements, airglow, total electron content techniques using the propagation of satellite radio signals and, recently, radar imaging techniques. Theoretical efforts are as old as the observations. Nevertheless, 32 years after their discovery, Jicamarca radar observations showed that none of the theories that had been put forward could explain them completely. The observations showed that irregularities were detected at altitudes that were stable according to the mechanisms proposed. A breakthrough came a few years later, again from Jicamarca, by showing that some of the "stable" regions had become unstable by the non-linear propagation of the irregularities from the unstable to the stable region of the ionosphere in the form of bubbles of low density plasma. A problem remained, however; the primary instability mechanism proposed, an extended (generalized Rayleigh-Taylor instability, was too slow to explain the rapid development seen by the observations. Gravity waves in the neutral background have been proposed as a seeding mechanism to

  16. Improved but unsustainable: accounting for sachet water in post-2015 goals for global safe water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoler, Justin

    2012-12-01

    The advent and rapid spread of sachet drinking water in West Africa presents a new challenge for providing sustainable access to global safe water. Sachet water has expanded drinking water access and is often of sufficient quality to serve as an improved water source for Millennium Development Goals (MDG) monitoring purposes, yet sachets are an unsustainable water delivery vehicle due to their overwhelming plastic waste burden. Monitoring of primary drinking water sources in West Africa generally ignores sachet water, despite its growing ubiquity. Sub-Saharan Africa as a region is unlikely to meet the MDG Target for drinking water provision, and post-2015 monitoring activities may depend upon rapid adaptability to local drinking water trends. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  17. Crop domestication facilitated rapid geographic expansion of a specialist pollinator, the squash bee Peponapis pruinosa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Over the past 10,000 years, humans have facilitated rapid range expansions of animal, plants and microorganisms, often accompanying agriculture’s spread. Three squash species were early domesticates in the New World. Their spreading cultivation out of the Southwest across much of today’s USA has bee...

  18. Education, Meritocracy and the Global War for Talent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Phillip; Tannock, Stuart

    2009-01-01

    Talk of the rise of a global war for talent and emergence of a new global meritocracy has spread from the literature on human resource management to shape nation-state discourse on managed migration and immigration reform. This article examines the implications that the global war for talent have for education policy. Given that this talent war is…

  19. Hydroclimatological And Anthropogenic Drivers For Cholera Spreading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Righetto, Lorenzo; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Casagrandi, Renato; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2010-05-01

    The nature of waterborne diseases, among which cholera has a prominent importance, calls for a better understanding of the link between epidemic spreading, water and climate. To this end, we have developed a framework which involves a network-based description of a river system, connected with local communities which act as nodes of the network. This has allowed us to produce consistent simulations of real case studies. More recent investigations comprise the evaluation of the spreading velocity of an epidemic wave by means of a reaction-diffusion modeling approach. In particular, we have found that both transport processes and epidemiological quantities, such as the basic reproduction number, have a crucial effect in controlling the spreading of the epidemics. We first developed a description of bacterial movement along the network driven by advection and diffusion; afterward, we have included the movement of human populations. This latter model allowed us to establish the conditions that can trigger epidemic waves that start from the coastal region, where bacteria are autochthonous, and travel inland. In particular, our findings suggest that even relatively low values of human diffusion can have the epidemic propagate upstream. The interaction between climate, hydrology and epidemic events is still much debated, since no clear correlation between climatologic and epidemiological phenomena has emerged so far. However, a spatial assessment of hydrological and epidemiological mechanisms could be crucial to understand the evolution of cholera outbreaks. In particular, a hotly debated topic is the understanding of the mechanisms that can generate patterns of cholera incidence that exhibit an intra-annual double peak, as frequently observed in endemic region such as Bangladesh. One of the possible explanations proposed in the literature is that spring droughts cause bacteria concentration in water to rise dramatically, triggering the first peak. On the other hand

  20. Operator Spreading in Random Unitary Circuits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahum, Adam; Vijay, Sagar; Haah, Jeongwan

    2018-04-01

    Random quantum circuits yield minimally structured models for chaotic quantum dynamics, which are able to capture, for example, universal properties of entanglement growth. We provide exact results and coarse-grained models for the spreading of operators by quantum circuits made of Haar-random unitaries. We study both 1 +1 D and higher dimensions and argue that the coarse-grained pictures carry over to operator spreading in generic many-body systems. In 1 +1 D , we demonstrate that the out-of-time-order correlator (OTOC) satisfies a biased diffusion equation, which gives exact results for the spatial profile of the OTOC and determines the butterfly speed vB. We find that in 1 +1 D , the "front" of the OTOC broadens diffusively, with a width scaling in time as t1 /2. We address fluctuations in the OTOC between different realizations of the random circuit, arguing that they are negligible in comparison to the broadening of the front within a realization. Turning to higher dimensions, we show that the averaged OTOC can be understood exactly via a remarkable correspondence with a purely classical droplet growth problem. This implies that the width of the front of the averaged OTOC scales as t1 /3 in 2 +1 D and as t0.240 in 3 +1 D (exponents of the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang universality class). We support our analytic argument with simulations in 2 +1 D . We point out that, in two or higher spatial dimensions, the shape of the spreading operator at late times is affected by underlying lattice symmetries and, in general, is not spherical. However, when full spatial rotational symmetry is present in 2 +1 D , our mapping implies an exact asymptotic form for the OTOC, in terms of the Tracy-Widom distribution. For an alternative perspective on the OTOC in 1 +1 D , we map it to the partition function of an Ising-like statistical mechanics model. As a result of special structure arising from unitarity, this partition function reduces to a random walk calculation which can be

  1. Against Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Philipsen, Lotte; Baggesgaard, Mads Anders

    2013-01-01

    In order to understand globalization, we need to consider what globalization is not. That is, in order to understand the mechanisms and elements that work toward globalization, we must, in a sense, read against globalization, highlighting the limitations of the concept and its inherent conflicts....... Only by employing this as a critical practice will we be analytically able to gain a dynamic understanding of the forces of globalization as they unfold today and as they have developed historically....

  2. Resource Allocation with Adaptive Spread Spectrum OFDM Using 2D Spreading for Power Line Communications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baudais Jean-Yves

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Bit-loading techniques based on orthogonal frequency division mutiplexing (OFDM are frequently used over wireline channels. In the power line context, channel state information can reasonably be obtained at both transmitter and receiver sides, and adaptive loading can advantageously be carried out. In this paper, we propose to apply loading principles to an spread spectrum OFDM (SS-OFDM waveform which is a multicarrier system using 2D spreading in the time and frequency domains. The presented algorithm handles the subcarriers, spreading codes, bits and energies assignment in order to maximize the data rate and the range of the communication system. The optimization is realized at a target symbol error rate and under spectral mask constraint as usually imposed. The analytical study shows that the merging principle realized by the spreading code improves the rate and the range of the discrete multitone (DMT system in single and multiuser contexts. Simulations have been run over measured power line communication (PLC channel responses and highlight that the proposed system is all the more interesting than the received signal-to-noise ratio (SNR is low.

  3. Resource Allocation with Adaptive Spread Spectrum OFDM Using 2D Spreading for Power Line Communications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baudais, Jean-Yves; Crussière, Matthieu

    2007-12-01

    Bit-loading techniques based on orthogonal frequency division mutiplexing (OFDM) are frequently used over wireline channels. In the power line context, channel state information can reasonably be obtained at both transmitter and receiver sides, and adaptive loading can advantageously be carried out. In this paper, we propose to apply loading principles to an spread spectrum OFDM (SS-OFDM) waveform which is a multicarrier system using 2D spreading in the time and frequency domains. The presented algorithm handles the subcarriers, spreading codes, bits and energies assignment in order to maximize the data rate and the range of the communication system. The optimization is realized at a target symbol error rate and under spectral mask constraint as usually imposed. The analytical study shows that the merging principle realized by the spreading code improves the rate and the range of the discrete multitone (DMT) system in single and multiuser contexts. Simulations have been run over measured power line communication (PLC) channel responses and highlight that the proposed system is all the more interesting than the received signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is low.

  4. Development and Validation of a Lateral Flow Immunoassay for Rapid Detection of NDM-Producing Enterobacteriaceae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boutal, Hervé; Naas, Thierry; Devilliers, Karine; Oueslati, Saoussen; Bernabeu, Sandrine; Simon, Stéphanie

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT The global spread of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) that are often resistant to most, if not all, classes of antibiotics is a major public health concern. The NDM-1 carbapenemase is among the most worrisome carbapenemases given its rapid worldwide spread. We have developed and evaluated a lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) (called the NDM LFIA) for the rapid and reliable detection of NDM-like carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae from culture colonies. We evaluated the NDM LFIA using 175 reference enterobacterial isolates with characterized β-lactamase gene content and 74 nonduplicate consecutive carbapenem-resistant clinical isolates referred for expertise to the French National Reference Center (NRC) for Antibiotic Resistance during a 1-week period (in June 2016). The reference collection included 55 non-carbapenemase producers and 120 carbapenemase producers, including 27 NDM producers. All 27 NDM-like carbapenemase producers of the reference collection were correctly detected in less than 15 min by the NDM LFIA, including 22 strains producing NDM-1, 2 producing NDM-4, 1 producing NDM-5, 1 producing NDM-7, and 1 producing NDM-9. All non-NDM-1 producers gave a negative result with the NDM LFIA. No cross-reaction was observed with carbapenemases (VIM, IMP, NDM, KPC, and OXA-48-like), extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBLs) (TEM, SHV, and CTX-M), AmpCs (CMY-2, DHA-2, and ACC-1), and oxacillinases (OXA-1, -2, -9, and -10). Similarly, among the 74 referred nonduplicate consecutive clinical isolates, all 7 NDM-like producers were identified. Overall, the sensitivity and specificity of the assay were 100% for NDM-like carbapenemase detection with strains cultured on agar. The NDM LFIA was efficient, rapid, and easy to implement in the routine workflow of a clinical microbiology laboratory for the confirmation of NDM-like carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae. PMID:28404680

  5. Dielectric fluid directional spreading under the action of corona discharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Shangru; Liu, Jie; Hu, Qun; Jiang, Teng; Yang, Jinchu; Liu, Sheng; Zheng, Huai

    2018-01-01

    Liquid spreading is a very common nature phenomenon and of significant importance for a broad range of applications. In this study, a dielectric fluid directional spreading phenomenon is presented. Under the action of corona discharge, a dielectric fluid, here a typical silicone directionally spreads along conductive patterns on conductive/nonconductive substrates. Directional spreading behaviors of silicone were experimentally observed on different conductive patterns in detail. Spreading speeds were analyzed at different driving voltages, which induced the corona discharge. The presented phenomenon may be useful to inspire several techniques of manipulating liquid transportation and fabricating micropatterns.

  6. Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Chonggang; Fang, Hua

    2015-09-01

    Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.

  7. Spread of epidemic disease on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, M. E.

    2002-07-01

    The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the so-called susceptible/infective/removed (SIR) models can be solved exactly on a wide variety of networks. In addition to the standard but unrealistic case of fixed infectiveness time and fixed and uncorrelated probability of transmission between all pairs of individuals, we solve cases in which times and probabilities are nonuniform and correlated. We also consider one simple case of an epidemic in a structured population, that of a sexually transmitted disease in a population divided into men and women. We confirm the correctness of our exact solutions with numerical simulations of SIR epidemics on networks.

  8. Quarantine generated phase transition in epidemic spreading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dicksion, Mark; Lagorio, Cecilia; Vazquez, F.; Braunstein, L.; Macri, P. A.; Migueles, M. V.; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

    2011-03-01

    We study the critical effect of quarantine on the propagation of epidemics on an adaptive network of social contacts. For this purpose, we analyze the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in the presence of quarantine, where susceptible individuals protect themselves by disconnecting their links to infected neighbors with probability w, and reconnecting them to other susceptible individuals chosen at random. Starting from a single infected individual, we show by an analytical approach and simulations that there is a phase transition at a critical rewiring (quarantine) threshold wc separating a phase (w =wc) where the disease does not spread out. We find that in our model the topology of the network strongly affects the size of the propagation, and that wc increases with the mean degree and heterogeneity of the network. We also find that wc is reduced if we perform a preferential rewiring, in which the rewiring probability is proportional to the degree of infected nodes.

  9. Abnormal cascading failure spreading on complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Jianwei; Sun, Enhui; Xu, Bo; Li, Peng; Ni, Chengzhang

    2016-01-01

    Applying the mechanism of the preferential selection of the flow destination, we develop a new method to quantify the initial load on an edge, of which the flow is transported along the path with the shortest edge weight between two nodes. Considering the node weight, we propose a cascading model on the edge and investigate cascading dynamics induced by the removal of the edge with the largest load. We perform simulated attacks on four types of constructed networks and two actual networks and observe an interesting and counterintuitive phenomenon of the cascading spreading, i.e., gradually improving the capacity of nodes does not lead to the monotonous increase in the robustness of these networks against cascading failures. The non monotonous behavior of cascading dynamics is well explained by the analysis on a simple graph. We additionally study the effect of the parameter of the node weight on cascading dynamics and evaluate the network robustness by a new metric.

  10. Intensity-dependent point spread image processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cornsweet, T.N.; Yellott, J.I.

    1984-01-01

    There is ample anatomical, physiological and psychophysical evidence that the mammilian retina contains networks that mediate interactions among neighboring receptors, resulting in intersecting transformations between input images and their corresponding neural output patterns. The almost universally accepted view is that the principal form of interaction involves lateral inhibition, resulting in an output pattern that is the convolution of the input with a ''Mexican hat'' or difference-of-Gaussians spread function, having a positive center and a negative surround. A closely related process is widely applied in digital image processing, and in photography as ''unsharp masking''. The authors show that a simple and fundamentally different process, involving no inhibitory or subtractive terms can also account for the physiological and psychophysical findings that have been attributed to lateral inhibition. This process also results in a number of fundamental effects that occur in mammalian vision and that would be of considerable significance in robotic vision, but which cannot be explained by lateral inhibitory interaction

  11. Spread of acid rain over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khemani, L. T.; Momin, G. A.; Rao, P. S. Prakasa; Safai, P. D.; Singh, G.; Kapoor, R. K.

    Rain water and aerosol samples were collected at a few locations representative of urban and non-urban regions in India. Also, rain water samples were collected in and around a coal-fired power plant. All the rain water and aerosol samples were analyzed for major chemical components along with pH. The rain water at all the places of measurement, except near the industrial sources, has been found to be alkaline and was characterized by the presence of excess cations, particularly by Ca 2+. The acid rain near the industrial sources was associated with excess anions, especially SO 42-. The atmospheric aerosols at all the places of measurement were found rich with basic components, suggesting that the alkaline soil dust and fly ash are responsible at present for preventing the spread of acid rain in India.

  12. Quantifier spreading: children misled by ostensive cues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katalin É. Kiss

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper calls attention to a methodological problem of acquisition experiments. It shows that the economy of the stimulus employed in child language experiments may lend an increased ostensive effect to the message communicated to the child. Thus, when the visual stimulus in a sentence-picture matching task is a minimal model abstracting away from the details of the situation, children often regard all the elements of the stimulus as ostensive clues to be represented in the corresponding sentence. The use of such minimal stimuli is mistaken when the experiment aims to test whether or not a certain element of the stimulus is relevant for the linguistic representation or interpretation. The paper illustrates this point by an experiment involving quantifier spreading. It is claimed that children find a universally quantified sentence like 'Every girl is riding a bicycle 'to be a false description of a picture showing three girls riding bicycles and a solo bicycle because they are misled to believe that all the elements in the visual stimulus are relevant, hence all of them are to be represented by the corresponding linguistic description. When the iconic drawings were replaced by photos taken in a natural environment rich in accidental details, the occurrence of quantifier spreading was radically reduced. It is shown that an extra object in the visual stimulus can lead to the rejection of the sentence also in the case of sentences involving no quantification, which gives further support to the claim that the source of the problem is not (or not only the grammatical or cognitive difficulty of quantification but the unintended ostensive effect of the extra object.  This article is part of the special collection: Acquisition of Quantification

  13. Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan, Wei; Qiu, Xiaogang; Quax, Rick; Lees, Michael; Sloot, Peter M A

    2014-01-01

    Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support decision-making on disease control and other diffusive processes. However, a real understanding of epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks is still lacking. Here we conduct a numerical study of the velocity of a Reed–Frost epidemic spreading process in various weighted network topologies as a function of the correlations between edge weights and node degrees. We find that a positive weight-connectivity correlation leads to a faster epidemic spreading compared to an unweighted network. In contrast, we find that both uncorrelated and negatively correlated weight distributions lead to slower spreading processes. In the case of positive weight-connectivity correlations, the acceleration of spreading velocity is weak when the heterogeneity of weight distribution increases. (paper)

  14. Non-isothermal spreading of liquid drops on horizontal plates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehrhard, P.; Davis, S.H.

    1990-05-01

    A viscous-liquid drop spreads on a smooth horizontal surface, which is uniformly heated or cooled. Lubrication theory is used to study thin drops subject to capillary, thermocapillary and gravity forces, and a variety of contact-angle-versus-speed conditions. It is found for isothermal drops that gravity is very important at large times and determines the power law for unlimited spreading. Predictions compare well with the experimental data on isothermal spreading for both two-dimensional and axisymmetric configurations. It is found that heating (cooling) retards (augments) the spreading process. When the advancing contact angle is zero, heating will cause the drop to spread only finitely far. For positive advancing contact angles, sufficient cooling will cause unlimited spreading. Thus, the heat transfer serves as a sentitive control on the spreading. (orig.) [de

  15. Globalization of Healthcare

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Globalization—the increasing transnational circulation of money, goods, people, ideas, and information worldwide—is generally recognized as one of the most powerful forces shaping our current and future history. How is it affecting healthcare, and in that context, what is the purpose and significance of Global Advances in Health and Medicine (GAHM), publisher of this journal? Our goal is not homogenization but rather to provide an opportunity for integration, convergence, and collaboration across cultures. By respecting and conserving the richness and diversity of each new medicine, we embrace globalization. Globalization is of course not new; it began in the Renaissance and particularly with the 15th- and 16th-century voyages of exploration by Columbus, Magellan, and others. Since the beginning of time, there have been interactions and exchanges among different peoples and cultures. However, the current magnitude of globalization is unprecedented and yet still expanding rapidly. PMID:24278809

  16. The global interdependence among oil-equity nexuses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Shupei; An, Haizhong; Gao, Xiangyun; Wen, Shaobo; Jia, Xiaoliang

    2016-01-01

    We propose a global network model to investigate the interdependence among the oil-equity nexuses from different countries in various time horizons based on wavelet coherence and gray correlation. The stock indexes from 28 countries and crude oil prices of WTI (​West Texas Intermediate price) and Brent are the sample. We obtain the following primary results: Oil-equity nexuses throughout the world are well-integrated across time scales; Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Demark, Germany and the Czech Republic for Brent-stock nexuses and Ireland, the Netherlands, Netherlands, Singapore, Japan, Germany and Malaysia for WTI-stock nexuses, successively corresponding to the frequency bands of 4 days–256 days, can be treated as a benchmark and can spread their fluctuations to other nexuses easily and rapidly. By contrast, China is more isolated in most time horizons and could be the ideal risk-hedging choice. Next, the global interdependence among oil-stock nexuses is characterized by the clustering effect, by which geographical factors and the oil production-consumption profile can exert their influence in most time horizons. In contrast, the speculation deals as well as energy policy and stagey are primarily influential in certain frequency bands. Thus, the decision-making for different time horizons could consider corresponding references. - Highlights: • Global interactions among oil-stock nexuses are invested. • Interdependence among oil-stock nexuses for Brent and WTI are both integrated. • Oil-stock nexuses networks are characterized by Multiscale and cluster effecting.

  17. Current perspectives on the spread of dengue in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gupta E

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Ekta Gupta, Neha Ballani Department of Clinical Virology, Institute of Liver and Biliary Sciences, New Delhi, IndiaAbstract: Dengue fever (DF and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF are important arthropod-borne viral diseases. Each year, there are ~50 million dengue infections and ~500,000 individuals are hospitalized with DHF, mainly in Southeast Asia. Dengue in India has dramatically expanded over the last few decades, with rapidly changing epidemiology. The first major DHF outbreak in the entire nation occurred in 1996 by dengue virus serotype 2, and after a gap of almost a decade, the country faced yet another DF outbreak in the year 2003 by dengue virus serotype 3. A dramatic increase in the number and frequency of outbreaks followed, and, at present, in most of the states of India, dengue is almost endemic. At present, all the four serotypes are seen in circulation, but the predominant serotype keeps changing. Despite this trend, surveillance, reporting, and diagnosis of dengue remain largely passive in India. More active community-based epidemiological studies with intensive vector control and initiatives for dengue vaccine development should be geared up to control the spread of dengue in India. We review here the factors that may have contributed to the changing epidemiology of dengue in India.Keywords: dengue, epidemiology, India, pathogenesis, vaccine

  18. Digital Watermarks Using Discrete Wavelet Transformation and Spectrum Spreading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryousuke Takai

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available In recent tears, digital media makes rapid progress through the development of digital technology. Digital media normally assures fairly high quality, nevertheless can be easily reproduced in a perfect form. This perfect reproducibility takes and advantage from a certain point of view, while it produces an essential disadvantage, since digital media is frequently copied illegally. Thus the problem of the copyright protection becomes a very important issue. A solution of this problem is to embed digital watermarks that is not perceived clearly by usual people, but represents the proper right of original product. In our method, the images data in the frequency domain are transformed by the Discrete Wavelet Transform and analyzed by the multi resolution approximation, [1]. Further, the spectrum spreading is executed by using PN-sequences. Choi and Aizawa [7] embed watermarks by using block correlation of DCT coefficients. Thus, we apply Discrete Cosine Transformation, abbreviated to DCT, instead of the Fourier transformation in order to embed watermarks.If the value of this variance is high then we decide that the block has bigger magnitude for visual fluctuations. Henceforth, we may embed stronger watermarks, which gives resistance for images processing, such as attacks and/or compressions.

  19. Global Strategy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Peter Ping

    2013-01-01

    Global strategy differs from domestic strategy in terms of content and process as well as context and structure. The content of global strategy can contain five key elements, while the process of global strategy can have six major stages. These are expounded below. Global strategy is influenced...... by rich and complementary local contexts with diverse resource pools and game rules at the national level to form a broad ecosystem at the global level. Further, global strategy dictates the interaction or balance between different entry strategies at the levels of internal and external networks....

  20. Herbivory drives the spread of salt marsh die-off.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark D Bertness

    Full Text Available Salt marsh die-off is a Western Atlantic conservation problem that has recently spread into Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA. It has been hypothesized to be driven by: 1 eutrophication decreasing plant investment into belowground biomass causing plant collapse, 2 boat wakes eroding creek banks, 3 pollution or disease affecting plant health, 4 substrate hardness controlling herbivorous crab distributions and 5 trophic dysfunction releasing herbivorous crabs from predator control. To distinguish between these hypotheses we quantified these variables at 14 Narragansett Bay salt marshes where die-off intensity ranged from <5% to nearly 98%. Nitrogen availability, wave intensity and plant growth did not explain any variation in die-off. Herbivory explained 73% of inter-site variation in die-off and predator control of herbivores and substrate hardness also varied significantly with die-off. This suggests that salt marsh die-off is being largely driven by intense herbivory via the release of herbivorous crabs from predator control. Our results and those from other marsh systems suggest that consumer control may not simply be a factor to consider in marsh conservation, but with widespread predator depletion impacting near shore habitats globally, trophic dysfunction and runaway consumption may be the largest and most urgent management challenge for salt marsh conservation.

  1. Masculine sex ratios, population age structure and the potential spread of HIV in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Giovanna Merli

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available There is much speculation regarding the contribution of China's changing demography to the spread of HIV/AIDS. We employ a bio-behavioral macrosimulation model of the heterosexual spread of HIV/AIDS to evaluate the roles that China's unique demographic conditions -- (1 masculine sex ratios at birth and (2 a population age structure that reflects rapid fertility decline since the 1970's -- play in altering the market for sexual partners, thereby potentially fueling an increase in behaviors associated with greater risk of HIV infection. We first simulate the relative contributions of the sex ratio at birth and the population age structure to the oversupply of males in the market for sexual partners and show that the sex ratio at birth only aggravates the severe oversupply of males which is primarily a consequence of the population age structure. We then examine the potential consequences of this demographic distortion for the spread of HIV infection and show that, to the extent that males adapt to the dearth of suitable female partners by seeking unprotected sexual contacts with female sex workers, the impact of the oversupply of males in the sexual partnership market on the spread of HIV will be severe.

  2. Natural transformation of Vibrio parahaemolyticus: A rapid method to create genetic deletions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chimalapati, Suneeta; de Souza Santos, Marcela; Servage, Kelly; De Nisco, Nicole J; Dalia, Ankur B; Orth, Kim

    2018-03-19

    The Gram-negative bacterium Vibrio parahaemolyticus is an opportunistic human pathogen and the leading cause of seafood borne acute gastroenteritis worldwide. Recently, this bacterium was implicated as the etiologic agent of a severe shrimp disease with consequent devastating outcomes to shrimp farming. In both cases, acquisition of genetic material via horizontal transfer provided V. parahaemolyticus with new virulence tools to cause disease. Dissecting the molecular mechanisms of V. parahaemolyticus pathogenesis often requires manipulating its genome. Classically, genetic deletions in V. parahaemolyticus are performed using a laborious, lengthy, multi-step process. Herein, we describe a fast and efficient method to edit this bacterium's genome based on V. parahaemolyticus natural competence. Although this method is similar to one previously described, V. parahaemolyticus requires counter selection for curing of acquired plasmids due to its recalcitrant nature of retaining extrachromosomal DNA. We believe this approach will be of use to the Vibrio community. Importance Spreading of Vibrios throughout the world correlates with increased global temperatures. As they spread, they find new niches to survive, proliferate and invade. Therefore, genetic manipulation of Vibrios is of utmost importance for studying these species. Herein, we have delineated and validated a rapid method to create genetic deletions in Vibrio parahaemolyticus This study provides insightful methodology for studies with other Vibrio species. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Microbiology.

  3. Risk spreading, connectivity, and optimal reserve spacing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blowes, Shane A; Connolly, Sean R

    2012-01-01

    Two important processes determining the dynamics of spatially structured populations are dispersal and the spatial covariance of demographic fluctuations. Spatially explicit approaches to conservation, such as reserve networks, must consider the tension between these two processes and reach a balance between distances near enough to maintain connectivity, but far enough to benefit from risk spreading. Here, we model this trade-off. We show how two measures of metapopulation persistence depend on the shape of the dispersal kernel and the shape of the distance decay in demographic covariance, and we consider the implications of this trade-off for reserve spacing. The relative rates of distance decay in dispersal and demographic covariance determine whether the long-run metapopulation growth rate, and quasi-extinction risk, peak for adjacent patches or intermediately spaced patches; two local maxima in metapopulation persistence are also possible. When dispersal itself fluctuates over time, the trade-off changes. Temporal variation in mean distance that propagules are dispersed (i.e., propagule advection) decreases metapopulation persistence and decreases the likelihood that persistence will peak for adjacent patches. Conversely, variation in diffusion (the extent of random spread around mean dispersal) increases metapopulation persistence overall and causes it to peak at shorter inter-patch distances. Thus, failure to consider temporal variation in dispersal processes increases the risk that reserve spacings will fail to meet the objective of ensuring metapopulation persistence. This study identifies two phenomena that receive relatively little attention in empirical work on reserve spacing, but that can qualitatively change the effectiveness of reserve spacing strategies: (1) the functional form of the distance decay in covariance among patch-specific demographic rates and (2) temporal variation in the shape of the dispersal kernel. The sensitivity of metapopulation

  4. Do pathogens become more virulent as they spread? Evidence from the amphibian declines in Central America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Ben L; Puschendorf, Robert

    2013-09-07

    The virulence of a pathogen can vary strongly through time. While cyclical variation in virulence is regularly observed, directional shifts in virulence are less commonly observed and are typically associated with decreasing virulence of biological control agents through coevolution. It is increasingly appreciated, however, that spatial effects can lead to evolutionary trajectories that differ from standard expectations. One such possibility is that, as a pathogen spreads through a naive host population, its virulence increases on the invasion front. In Central America, there is compelling evidence for the recent spread of pathogenic Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and for its strong impact on amphibian populations. Here, we re-examine data on Bd prevalence and amphibian population decline across 13 sites from southern Mexico through Central America, and show that, in the initial phases of the Bd invasion, amphibian population decline lagged approximately 9 years behind the arrival of the pathogen, but that this lag diminished markedly over time. In total, our analysis suggests an increase in Bd virulence as it spread southwards, a pattern consistent with rapid evolution of increased virulence on Bd's invading front. The impact of Bd on amphibians might therefore be driven by rapid evolution in addition to more proximate environmental drivers.

  5. Health promotion in globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro Franco-Giraldo

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to unravel some theoretical and factual elements required to implement more effective health promotion strategies and practices in the field of health services whilst following the great challenges that globalization has imposed on the health systems, which are inevitably expressed in the local context (glocalization. Methodology: a narrative review taking into account the concepts of globalization and health promotion in relation to health determinants. The authors approach some courses of action and strategies for health promotion based on the social principles and universal values that guide health promotion, health service reorientation and primary healthcare, empowerment, social participation, and inter-sectoral and social mobilization. Discussion: the discussion focuses on the redirection of health promotion services in relation to the wave of health reforms that has spread throughout the world under the neoliberal rule. The author also discusses health promotion, its ineffectiveness, and the quest for renewal. Likewise, the author sets priorities for health promotion in relation to social determinants. Conclusion: the current global order, in terms of international relations, is not consistent with the ethical principles of health promotion. In this paper, the author advocates for the implementation of actions to change the social and physical life conditions of people based on changes in the use of power in society and the appropriate practice of politics in the context of globalization in order to achieve the effectiveness of the actions of health promotion.

  6. Global Europa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manners, Ian

    2010-01-01

    at the mythology of ‘global Europa' - the EU in the world. It concludes with a reflection on the way in which the many diverse myths of global Europa compete for daily attention, whether as lore, ideology, or pleasure. In this respect the mythology of global Europa is part of our everyday existence, part of the EU...

  7. Ecosystem Interactions Underlie the Spread of Avian Influenza A Viruses with Pandemic Potential.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Bahl

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Despite evidence for avian influenza A virus (AIV transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems, the roles of bird migration and poultry trade in the spread of viruses remain enigmatic. In this study, we integrate ecosystem interactions into a phylogeographic model to assess the contribution of wild and domestic hosts to AIV distribution and persistence. Analysis of globally sampled AIV datasets shows frequent two-way transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems. In general, viral flow from domestic to wild bird populations was restricted to within a geographic region. In contrast, spillover from wild to domestic populations occurred both within and between regions. Wild birds mediated long-distance dispersal at intercontinental scales whereas viral spread among poultry populations was a major driver of regional spread. Viral spread between poultry flocks frequently originated from persistent lineages circulating in regions of intensive poultry production. Our analysis of long-term surveillance data demonstrates that meaningful insights can be inferred from integrating ecosystem into phylogeographic reconstructions that may be consequential for pandemic preparedness and livestock protection.

  8. Ecosystem Interactions Underlie the Spread of Avian Influenza A Viruses with Pandemic Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahl, Justin; Pham, Truc T.; Hill, Nichola J.; Hussein, Islam T. M.; Ma, Eric J.; Easterday, Bernard C.; Halpin, Rebecca A.; Stockwell, Timothy B.; Wentworth, David E.; Kayali, Ghazi; Krauss, Scott; Schultz-Cherry, Stacey; Webster, Robert G.; Webby, Richard J.; Swartz, Michael D.; Smith, Gavin J. D.; Runstadler, Jonathan A.

    2016-01-01

    Despite evidence for avian influenza A virus (AIV) transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems, the roles of bird migration and poultry trade in the spread of viruses remain enigmatic. In this study, we integrate ecosystem interactions into a phylogeographic model to assess the contribution of wild and domestic hosts to AIV distribution and persistence. Analysis of globally sampled AIV datasets shows frequent two-way transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems. In general, viral flow from domestic to wild bird populations was restricted to within a geographic region. In contrast, spillover from wild to domestic populations occurred both within and between regions. Wild birds mediated long-distance dispersal at intercontinental scales whereas viral spread among poultry populations was a major driver of regional spread. Viral spread between poultry flocks frequently originated from persistent lineages circulating in regions of intensive poultry production. Our analysis of long-term surveillance data demonstrates that meaningful insights can be inferred from integrating ecosystem into phylogeographic reconstructions that may be consequential for pandemic preparedness and livestock protection. PMID:27166585

  9. Spreading Optics in the primary school

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gargallo, Ana; Gómez-Varela, Ana I; Gónzalez-Nuñez, Héctor; Delgado, Tamara; Almaguer, Citlalli; Cambronero, Ferran; García-Sánchez, Ángel; Pallarés, David; Aymerich, María; Aragón, Ángel L; Flores-Arias, Maria T

    2015-01-01

    The USC-OSA is a student chapter located at the University of Santiago de Compostela (Spain) whose objective is to bring optics and photonics knowledge closer to general public. In order to arouse kids' interest in Optics we developed an activity called Funny Light. This activity consisted on a visit of some USC-OSA members to a several local primary schools where we organized several optics experiments. In this work we present the optics demonstrations and the reaction of the 6 years-old students. The activities with greater acceptance include an explanation of light properties as polarization, refraction or reflection, and the workshop where they learnt how to build their own kaleidoscope and made a chromatic disk. Besides, they also participated in a demonstration and explanation of color properties and some optical illusions. We think that this activity has several benefits including spreading Optics through children meanwhile they have fun and experiment science in real life, as well as helping teachers to explain some complex properties and Physics phenomena of light. Given the broad acceptance of this activity, we are intending to make it a routine event of our student chapter repeating it every year. (paper)

  10. Onset conditions for equatorial spread F

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendillo, M.; Baumgardner, J.; Xiaoqing Pi; Sultan, P.J.; Tsunoda, R.

    1992-01-01

    The problem of day-to-day variability in the occurrence of equatorial spread F (ESF) is addressed using multidiagnostic observations and semiempirical modeling. The observational results are derived from a two-night case study of ESF onset conditions observed at Kwajalein Atoll (Marshall Islands) using the ALTAIR incoherent scatter radar and all-sky optical imaging techniques. The major difference between nights when ESF instabilities did not occur (August 14, 1988) and did occur (August 15, 1988) in the Kwajalein sector was that the northern meridional gradient of 6300-angstrom airglow was reduced on the night of limited ESF activity. Modeling results suggest that this unusual airglow pattern is due to equatorward neutral winds. Previous researchers have shown that transequatorial thermospheric winds can exert a control over ESF seasonal and longitudinal occurrence patterns by inhibiting Rayleigh-Taylor instability growth rates. They present evidence to suggest that this picture can be extended to far shorter time scales, namely, that 'surges' in transequatoral winds acting over characteristic times of a few hours to a day can result in a stabilizing influence upon irregularity growth rates. The seemingly capricious nature of ESF onset may thus be controlled, in part, by the inherent variability of low-latitude thermospheric winds

  11. Spreading continents kick-started plate tectonics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, Patrice F; Coltice, Nicolas; Flament, Nicolas

    2014-09-18

    Stresses acting on cold, thick and negatively buoyant oceanic lithosphere are thought to be crucial to the initiation of subduction and the operation of plate tectonics, which characterizes the present-day geodynamics of the Earth. Because the Earth's interior was hotter in the Archaean eon, the oceanic crust may have been thicker, thereby making the oceanic lithosphere more buoyant than at present, and whether subduction and plate tectonics occurred during this time is ambiguous, both in the geological record and in geodynamic models. Here we show that because the oceanic crust was thick and buoyant, early continents may have produced intra-lithospheric gravitational stresses large enough to drive their gravitational spreading, to initiate subduction at their margins and to trigger episodes of subduction. Our model predicts the co-occurrence of deep to progressively shallower mafic volcanics and arc magmatism within continents in a self-consistent geodynamic framework, explaining the enigmatic multimodal volcanism and tectonic record of Archaean cratons. Moreover, our model predicts a petrological stratification and tectonic structure of the sub-continental lithospheric mantle, two predictions that are consistent with xenolith and seismic studies, respectively, and consistent with the existence of a mid-lithospheric seismic discontinuity. The slow gravitational collapse of early continents could have kick-started transient episodes of plate tectonics until, as the Earth's interior cooled and oceanic lithosphere became heavier, plate tectonics became self-sustaining.

  12. Metallicity Spreads in M31 Globular Clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bridges, Terry

    2003-07-01

    Our recent deep HST photometry of the M31 halo globular cluster {GC} Mayall II, also called G1, has revealed a red-giant branch with a clear spread that we attribute to an intrinsic metallicity dispersion of at least 0.4 dex in [Fe/H]. The only other GC exhibiting such a metallicity dispersion is Omega Centauri, the brightest and most massive Galactic GC, whose range in [Fe/H] is about 0.5 dex. These observations are obviously linked to the fact that both G1 and Omega Cen are bright and massive GC, with potential wells deep enough to keep part of their gas, which might have been recycled, producing a metallicity scatter among cluster stars. These observations dramatically challenge the notion of chemical homogeneity as a defining characteristic of GCs. It is critically important to find out how common this phenomenon is and how it can constrain scenarios/models of GC formation. The obvious targets are other bright and massive GCs, which exist in M31 but not in our Galaxy where Omega Cen is an isolated giant. We propose to acquire, with ACS/HRC, deep imaging of 3 of the brightest M31 GCs for which we have observed velocity dispersion values similar to those observed in G1 and Omega Cen. A sample of GCs with chemical abundance dispersions will provide essential information about their formation mechanism. This would represent a major step for the studies of the origin and evolution of stellar populations.

  13. Spread of Traditional Medicines in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivasan, R.; Sugumar, V. Raji

    2015-01-01

    For the first time, we have a comprehensive database on usage of AYUSH (acronym for Ayurveda, naturopathy and Yoga, Unani, Siddha, and Homeopathy) in India at the household level. This article aims at exploring the spread of the traditional medical systems in India and the perceptions of people on the access and effectiveness of these medical systems using this database. The article uses the unit level data purchased from the National Sample Survey Organization, New Delhi. Household is the basic unit of survey and the data are the collective opinion of the household. This survey shows that less than 30% of Indian households use the traditional medical systems. There is also a regional pattern in the usage of particular type of traditional medicine, reflecting the regional aspects of the development of such medical systems. The strong faith in AYUSH is the main reason for its usage; lack of need for AYUSH and lack of awareness about AYUSH are the main reasons for not using it. With regard to source of medicines in the traditional medical systems, home is the main source in the Indian medical system and private sector is the main source in Homeopathy. This shows that there is need for creating awareness and improving access to traditional medical systems in India. By and large, the users of AYUSH are also convinced about the effectiveness of these traditional medicines. PMID:26438717

  14. Spreading Optics in the primary school

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gargallo, Ana; Gómez-Varela, Ana I.; Gónzalez-Nuñez, Héctor; Delgado, Tamara; Almaguer, Citlalli; Cambronero, Ferran; García-Sánchez, Ángel; Pallarés, David; Aymerich, María; Aragón, Ángel L.; Flores-Arias, Maria T.

    2015-04-01

    The USC-OSA is a student chapter located at the University of Santiago de Compostela (Spain) whose objective is to bring optics and photonics knowledge closer to general public. In order to arouse kids' interest in Optics we developed an activity called Funny Light. This activity consisted on a visit of some USC-OSA members to a several local primary schools where we organized several optics experiments. In this work we present the optics demonstrations and the reaction of the 6 years-old students. The activities with greater acceptance include an explanation of light properties as polarization, refraction or reflection, and the workshop where they learnt how to build their own kaleidoscope and made a chromatic disk. Besides, they also participated in a demonstration and explanation of color properties and some optical illusions. We think that this activity has several benefits including spreading Optics through children meanwhile they have fun and experiment science in real life, as well as helping teachers to explain some complex properties and Physics phenomena of light. Given the broad acceptance of this activity, we are intending to make it a routine event of our student chapter repeating it every year.

  15. Numerical unit spread assessment pedigree (NUSAP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schaffhauser, A. Jr.

    1994-01-01

    Data estimates and information require a system for signaling the uncertainty and quality of the entries for users. Few of the entries will be known with certainty, or even generally agreed upon as the prevalent quantity or relation. For example, the ecological or health responses of resources exposed to energy-related pollutants cannot be known with certainty given current knowledge of the relationships. The monetary valuations associated with the imperfectly known impacts are also uncertain and sometimes controversial. To leave entries standing alone without signaling their uncertainty and quality would overstate the precision with which the entries are known. In addition, signaling the uncertainty and quality for entries will indicate areas where further study is needed most. Uncertainty and quality are signaled through a notational system named NUSAP as an acronym for its categories. NUSAP was developed by Funtowicz and Ravetz to provide a 'quality control' of quantitative information.' We have adapted the NUSAP system for signaling the uncertainty and quality of quantitative information to be used in estimating the emissions, impacts, NUSAP and external costs of fuel cycles. Uncertainty refers to the spread of plausible values for a cell entry and the level of confidence placed in a quantitative statement. Quality refers to both an entry's worth as a piece of information and the credibility of the theory, data, and methods used to generate the entry

  16. Modelling fast spreading patterns of airborne infectious diseases using complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Frank; Marwan, Norbert; Hoffmann, Peter

    2017-04-01

    The pandemics of SARS (2002/2003) and H1N1 (2009) have impressively shown the potential of epidemic outbreaks of infectious diseases in a world that is strongly connected. Global air travelling established an easy and fast opportunity for pathogens to migrate globally in only a few days. This made epidemiological prediction harder. By understanding this complex development and its link to climate change we can suggest actions to control a part of global human health affairs. In this study we combine the following data components to simulate the outbreak of an airborne infectious disease that is directly transmitted from human to human: em{Global Air Traffic Network (from openflights.org) with information on airports, airport location, direct flight connection, airplane type} em{Global population dataset (from SEDAC, NASA)} em{Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) compartmental model to simulate disease spreading in the vicinity of airports. A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model to analyze the impact of the incubation period.} em{WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) climate data: temperature, specific humidity, surface air pressure, and water vapor pressure} These elements are implemented into a complex network. Nodes inside the network represent airports. Each single node is equipped with its own SIR/SEIR compartmental model with node specific attributes. Edges between those nodes represent direct flight connections that allow infected individuals to move between linked nodes. Therefore the interaction of the set of unique SIR models creates the model dynamics we will analyze. To better figure out the influence on climate change on disease spreading patterns, we focus on Influenza-like-Illnesses (ILI). The transmission rate of ILI has a dependency on climate parameters like humidity and temperature. Even small changes of environmental variables can trigger significant differences in the global outbreak behavior. Apart from the direct

  17. Dynamic properties of epidemic spreading on finite size complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ying; Liu, Yang; Shan, Xiu-Ming; Ren, Yong; Jiao, Jian; Qiu, Ben

    2005-11-01

    The Internet presents a complex topological structure, on which computer viruses can easily spread. By using theoretical analysis and computer simulation methods, the dynamic process of disease spreading on finite size networks with complex topological structure is investigated. On the finite size networks, the spreading process of SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) model is a finite Markov chain with an absorbing state. Two parameters, the survival probability and the conditional infecting probability, are introduced to describe the dynamic properties of disease spreading on finite size networks. Our results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks. Also, knowledge about the dynamic character of virus spreading is helpful for adopting immunity policy.

  18. Minimizing Energy Spread In The REX/HIE-ISOLDE Linac

    CERN Document Server

    Yucemoz, Mert

    2017-01-01

    This report tries to minimize the energy spread of the beam at the end of the REX-HIE-ISOLDE Linac using the last RF cavity as a buncher. Beams with very low energy spread are often required by the users of the facility In addition, one of the main reason to have minimum energy spread in longitudinal phase space is that higher beam energy spread translates in to a position spread after interacting with target. This causes an overlap in the position of different particles that makes it difficult to distinguish them. Hence, in order to find the operation settings for minimum energy spread at the end of the REX-HIE-ISOLDE linac and to inspect the ongoing physics, several functions on Matlab were created that runs beam dynamics program called “TRACKV39” that provides some graphs and values as a result for analysis.

  19. Asymmetrically interacting spreading dynamics on complex layered networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Tang, Ming; Yang, Hui; Younghae Do; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Lee, GyuWon

    2014-05-29

    The spread of disease through a physical-contact network and the spread of information about the disease on a communication network are two intimately related dynamical processes. We investigate the asymmetrical interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics, each occurring on its own layer, by focusing on the two fundamental quantities underlying any spreading process: epidemic threshold and the final infection ratio. We find that an epidemic outbreak on the contact layer can induce an outbreak on the communication layer, and information spreading can effectively raise the epidemic threshold. When structural correlation exists between the two layers, the information threshold remains unchanged but the epidemic threshold can be enhanced, making the contact layer more resilient to epidemic outbreak. We develop a physical theory to understand the intricate interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics.

  20. Globalization and Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Traian-Alexandru Miu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Globalization, very complex phenomenon, involves overcoming the barriers between different states, which allowed the rapid transfer of capital, technology, information, and the "toxins" from one country to another. First, the technology formed the basis of rapid expansion of great ideas promoted by globalization. Undeniable progress in the field of technology and science, has conferred to the man extraordinary powers that have been used most often to the detriment of his spiritual progress. We must not deny that science and technology have brought many benefits to human, and he could expand the knowledge horizon upon the world in which he lives, exploiting information acquired and share them with others. Science and technology must become for postmodern man ways of talk and communion between human and divinity, all to the praise of God and the perfection of the creature.

  1. Slowing global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flavin, C.

    1990-01-01

    According to the authors, global warming promises to be one of the central environmental issues of the nineties. After a decade of scientific concern but popular neglect, the eighties ended with a growing political as well as scientific consensus that the world can no longer afford to procrastinate about this issue. This paper reports on coping with global warming which, according to the author, will force societies to move rapidly into uncharted terrain, reversing powerful trends that have dominated the industrial age. This challenge cannot be met without a strong commitment on the part of both individual consumers and governments. In terms of the earth's carbon balance, the unprecedented policy changes that have now become urgent include a new commitment to greater energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, a carbon tax on fossil fuels, a reversal of deforestation in tropical countries, and the rapid elimination of CFCs

  2. Surveying the global virome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheel, Troels K H; Simmonds, Peter; Kapoor, Amit

    2015-01-01

    Recent advances in sequencing technologies have greatly enhanced our abilities to identify novel microbial sequences. Thus, our understanding of the global virome and the virome of specific host species in particular is rapidly expanding. Identification of animal viruses is important for understa......Recent advances in sequencing technologies have greatly enhanced our abilities to identify novel microbial sequences. Thus, our understanding of the global virome and the virome of specific host species in particular is rapidly expanding. Identification of animal viruses is important....... Much remains to be learned on the novel hepaciviruses, including their association with disease, and thereby how relevant they will become as HCV model systems and for studies of animal disease. This review discusses how virome analysis led to identification of novel hepaci- and pegiviruses...

  3. Global usability

    CERN Document Server

    Douglas, Ian

    2011-01-01

    The concept of usability has become an increasingly important consideration in the design of all kinds of technology. As more products are aimed at global markets and developed through internationally distributed teams, usability design needs to be addressed in global terms. Interest in usability as a design issue and specialist area of research and education has developed steadily in North America and Europe since the 1980's. However, it is only over the last ten years that it has emerged as a global concern. Global Usability provides an introduction to the important issues in globalizing des

  4. Rapid Response in Psychological Treatments for Binge-Eating Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilbert, Anja; Hildebrandt, Thomas; Agras, W. Stewart; Wilfley, Denise E.; Wilson, G. Terence

    2015-01-01

    Objective Analysis of short- and long-term effects of rapid response across three different treatments for binge-eating disorder (BED). Method In a randomized clinical study comparing interpersonal psychotherapy (IPT), cognitive-behavioral guided self-help (CBTgsh), and behavioral weight loss (BWL) treatment in 205 adults meeting DSM-IV criteria for BED, the predictive value of rapid response, defined as ≥ 70% reduction in binge-eating by week four, was determined for remission from binge-eating and global eating disorder psychopathology at posttreatment, 6-, 12-, 18-, and 24-month follow-up. Results Rapid responders in CBTgsh, but not in IPT or BWL, showed significantly greater rates of remission from binge-eating than non-rapid responders, which was sustained over the long term. Rapid and non-rapid responders in IPT and rapid responders in CBTgsh showed a greater remission from binge-eating than non-rapid responders in CBTgsh and BWL. Rapid responders in CBTgsh showed greater remission from binge-eating than rapid responders in BWL. Although rapid responders in all treatments had lower global eating disorder psychopathology than non-rapid responders in the short term, rapid responders in CBTgsh and IPT were more improved than those in BWL and non-rapid responders in each treatment. Rapid responders in BWL did not differ from non-rapid responders in CBTgsh and IPT. Conclusions Rapid response is a treatment-specific positive prognostic indicator of sustained remission from binge-eating in CBTgsh. Regarding an evidence-based stepped care model, IPT, equally efficacious for rapid and non-rapid responders, could be investigated as a second-line treatment in case of non-rapid response to first-line CBTgsh. PMID:25867446

  5. Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Ting; Li, Ping; Chen, Yan; Zhang, Jie

    2016-01-01

    The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people's reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explo...

  6. Farm-retail price spread for pork in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Tey, (John) Yeong-Sheng; Randy, Stringer; Wendy, Umberger

    2009-01-01

    The price difference between farm and retail levels is called price spread, which is constituted mostly by marketing costs and profits. From the price spread, this paper intends to estimate elasticities of price transmission for pork in Malaysia via different empirical model specifications of markup pricing model. Using data from January 1997 to December 2007, a quantitative analysis of farm-to-retail price spreads was undertaken for pork in Malaysia. It was found that retail price is the onl...

  7. Spreading dynamics of power-law fluid droplets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang Zhanpeng; Peng Xiaofeng; Wang Xiaodong; Lee, D-J; Su Ay

    2009-01-01

    This paper aims at providing a summary of the theoretical models available for non-Newtonian fluid spreading dynamics. Experimental findings and model predictions for a Newtonian fluid spreading test are briefly reviewed. Then how the complete wetting and partial wetting power-law fluids spread over a solid substrate is examined. The possible extension of Newtonian fluid models to power-law fluids is also discussed.

  8. Relationship between attenuation coefficients and dose-spread kernels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyer, A.L.

    1988-01-01

    Dose-spread kernels can be used to calculate the dose distribution in a photon beam by convolving the kernel with the primary fluence distribution. The theoretical relationships between various types and components of dose-spread kernels relative to photon attenuation coefficients are explored. These relations can be valuable as checks on the conservation of energy by dose-spread kernels calculated by analytic or Monte Carlo methods

  9. Destructive disinfection of infected brood prevents systemic disease spread in ant colonies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pull, Christopher D; Ugelvig, Line V; Wiesenhofer, Florian; Grasse, Anna V; Tragust, Simon; Schmitt, Thomas; Brown, Mark Jf; Cremer, Sylvia

    2018-01-09

    In social groups, infections have the potential to spread rapidly and cause disease outbreaks. Here, we show that in a social insect, the ant Lasius neglectus , the negative consequences of fungal infections ( Metarhizium brunneum ) can be mitigated by employing an efficient multicomponent behaviour, termed destructive disinfection, which prevents further spread of the disease through the colony. Ants specifically target infected pupae during the pathogen's non-contagious incubation period, utilising chemical 'sickness cues' emitted by pupae. They then remove the pupal cocoon, perforate its cuticle and administer antimicrobial poison, which enters the body and prevents pathogen replication from the inside out. Like the immune system of a metazoan body that specifically targets and eliminates infected cells, ants destroy infected brood to stop the pathogen completing its lifecycle, thus protecting the rest of the colony. Hence, in an analogous fashion, the same principles of disease defence apply at different levels of biological organisation.

  10. Distribution, spread, and ecological associations of the introduced ant Pheidole obscurithorax in the southeastern United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shonna R. Storz

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available A field survey of the southeastern United States showed that Pheidole obscurithorax Naves, an ant introduced from South America, inhabits a 80-km-wide band along the coast between Mobile, Alabama, and Tallahassee, Florida, and is continuing to increase its range. In Tallahassee P. obscurithorax is rapidly spreading, and its nest density increased by a factor of 6.4 over a two-year period. Evidence suggests that P. obscurithorax has spread gradually by natural means. It coexists with the fire ant Solenopsis invicta Buren, appears to be part of a largely exotic community of ants that are tolerant of highly disturbed habitats, and seems to have little negative effect on the ant communities that it invades.

  11. Spread of the invasive ladybird Harmonia axyridis in the Czech Republic and Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nedved, Oldrich; Steenberg, Tove; Harding, Susanne

    2008-01-01

    Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, University OF Aarhus, Skovbrynet 14, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark 4 Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Bülowsvej 13, DK - 1870 Frederiksberg C, Denmark nedved@prf.jcu.cz Introduction: Harmonia axyridis (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) is an invasive alien......Spread of the invasive ladybird Harmonia axyridis in the Czech Republic and Denmark Oldřich Nedvěd1,2 and Tove Steenberg3 and SUSANNE HARDING4 1Faculty of Science, University of South Bohemia, and 2Institute of Entomology, Biology Centre; Branišovská 31, CZ370 05 České Budějovice, Czech Republic. 3...... that H. axyridis will continue to spread rapidly in Europe, particularly northwards and eastwards. Although there may consequently be a reduction in pest insects, our records support that this species may have significant detrimental impact. The records of the axyridis colour morph in the Czech Republic...

  12. Rapidly Progressive Spontaneous Spinal Epidural Abscess

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdurrahman Aycan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Spinal epidural abscess (SEA is a rare disease which is often rapidly progressive. Delayed diagnosis of SEA may lead to serious complications and the clinical findings of SEA are generally nonspecific. Paraspinal abscess should be considered in the presence of local low back tenderness, redness, and pain with fever, particularly in children. In case of delayed diagnosis and treatment, SEA may spread to the epidural space and may cause neurological deficits. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI remains the method of choice in the diagnosis of SEA. Treatment of SEA often consists of both medical and surgical therapy including drainage with percutaneous entry, corpectomy, and instrumentation.

  13. The small world yields the most effective information spreading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lü Linyuan; Chen Duanbing; Zhou Tao

    2011-01-01

    The spreading dynamics of information and diseases are usually analyzed by using a unified framework and analogous models. In this paper, we propose a model to emphasize the essential difference between information spreading and epidemic spreading, where the memory effects, the social reinforcement and the non-redundancy of contacts are taken into account. Under certain conditions, the information spreads faster and broader in regular networks than in random networks, which to some extent supports the recent experimental observation of spreading in online society (Centola D 2010 Science 329 1194). At the same time, the simulation result indicates that the random networks tend to be favorable for effective spreading when the network size increases. This challenges the validity of the above-mentioned experiment for large-scale systems. More importantly, we show that the spreading effectiveness can be sharply enhanced by introducing a little randomness into the regular structure, namely the small-world networks yield the most effective information spreading. This work provides insights into the role of local clustering in information spreading. (paper)

  14. Dynamics of Ionic Shifts in Cortical Spreading Depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enger, Rune; Tang, Wannan; Vindedal, Gry Fluge; Jensen, Vidar; Johannes Helm, P; Sprengel, Rolf; Looger, Loren L; Nagelhus, Erlend A

    2015-11-01

    Cortical spreading depression is a slowly propagating wave of near-complete depolarization of brain cells followed by temporary suppression of neuronal activity. Accumulating evidence indicates that cortical spreading depression underlies the migraine aura and that similar waves promote tissue damage in stroke, trauma, and hemorrhage. Cortical spreading depression is characterized by neuronal swelling, profound elevation of extracellular potassium and glutamate, multiphasic blood flow changes, and drop in tissue oxygen tension. The slow speed of the cortical spreading depression wave implies that it is mediated by diffusion of a chemical substance, yet the identity of this substance and the pathway it follows are unknown. Intercellular spread between gap junction-coupled neurons or glial cells and interstitial diffusion of K(+) or glutamate have been proposed. Here we use extracellular direct current potential recordings, K(+)-sensitive microelectrodes, and 2-photon imaging with ultrasensitive Ca(2+) and glutamate fluorescent probes to elucidate the spatiotemporal dynamics of ionic shifts associated with the propagation of cortical spreading depression in the visual cortex of adult living mice. Our data argue against intercellular spread of Ca(2+) carrying the cortical spreading depression wavefront and are in favor of interstitial K(+) diffusion, rather than glutamate diffusion, as the leading event in cortical spreading depression. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

  15. Beam-width spreading of vortex beams in free space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Weiwei; Li, Jinhong; Duan, Meiling

    2018-01-01

    Based on the extended Huygens-Fresnel principle and the definition of second-order moments of the Wigner distribution function, the analytical expression for the beam-width spreading of Gaussian Schell-model (GSM) vortex beams in free space are derived, and used to study the influence of beam parameters on the beam-width spreading of GSM vortex beams. With the increment of the propagation distance, the beam-width spreading of GSM vortex beams will increase; the bigger the topological charge, spatial correlation length, wavelength and waist width are, the smaller the beam-width spreading is.

  16. Perineural spread of nasopharyngeal carcinoma: Radiological and CT demonstration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pandolfo, I.; Gaeta, M.; Longo, M.; Faranda, C.; Blandino, A.

    1988-01-01

    Perineural spread is well known to be the most insidious form of tumour spread of a number of head and neck malignancies. However, perineural extension of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NC) is a poorly recognized event. Four cases of perineural metastases from NC have been detected with pluridirectional tomography and CT. In 3 cases involvement of the Vidian nerve (nervus canalis pterygoidei) and pterygoid canal was observed. In a fourth patient, invasion of one pterygopalatine fossa and perineural spread along ipsilateral maxillary nerve with enlargement and erosion of the foramen rotundum was demonstrated. Radiological diagnosis of clinically unsuspected perineural tumour spread is important because it markedly influences treatment planning and prognosis of NC. (orig.)

  17. Perineural spread of nasopharyngeal carcinoma: Radiological and CT demonstration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pandolfo, I.; Gaeta, M.; Longo, M.; Faranda, C.; Blandino, A.

    1988-11-01

    Perineural spread is well known to be the most insidious form of tumour spread of a number of head and neck malignancies. However, perineural extension of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NC) is a poorly recognized event. Four cases of perineural metastases from NC have been detected with pluridirectional tomography and CT. In 3 cases involvement of the Vidian nerve (nervus canalis pterygoidei) and pterygoid canal was observed. In a fourth patient, invasion of one pterygopalatine fossa and perineural spread along ipsilateral maxillary nerve with enlargement and erosion of the foramen rotundum was demonstrated. Radiological diagnosis of clinically unsuspected perineural tumour spread is important because it markedly influences treatment planning and prognosis of NC.

  18. Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Yun; Ding Li; Huang Yun-Han; Guan Zhi-Hong

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. (paper)

  19. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-06-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  20. Utilizing Information Technology to Facilitate Rapid Acquisition

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-06-01

    PAGES 109 14. SUBJECT TERMS Rapid Acquisition, eCommerce , eProcurement, Information Technology, Contracting, Global Information Network...Agency. 5 eCommerce and eProcurement, and possess an adequate knowledge of information technology. D. RESEARCH QUESTIONS 1. Primary Research... eCommerce , Information Technology, and eProcurement knowledge, and government and private industry reports utilizing numerous library and Internet

  1. EFFECTS OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS IN THE BANKING SYSTEM OF KOSOVO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myrvete Badivuku-Pantina

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Financial crises are phenomena that happened before and continue to happen even nowadays. There were many financial crises in the last century, starting with the Great Depression of 1929 and continuing with other financial crisis, and it was believed that people would learn from their previous experiences and would not allow the crisis to happen again. But the financial crisis of 2007, created the impression that no one wanted to learn for the real causes of their occurrence and consequences, often disastrous for countries and the globe, and as such allowed the crisis to be repeated. Effects of the 2007 financial crisis, which originally started in the USA’s mortgage market and which was quickly spread all over the world, even to this date it still continues to have effect on real economies of many states, e.g. Greece. The spread of the crisis was primarily due to globalization and commercial trades among countries. Because of the dependence of economies on one another it was created the domino effect and all the countries were affected from the crisis. As a result, the crisis seems to have revealed the disadvantages of globalization. Finances of the world were shocked and rapid fluctuations were reflected in the stock prices. Kosovo, as a new and small country in the Western Balkans is not much globalized and open which was beneficial in preventing it from being affected from the global financial crisis. Its economy has slightly felt the effect of the crisis because the banking system in Kosovo is not much open to the international financial markets as they operate mostly with their clients’ deposits. The purpose of this research is to assess the implications of the global financial crisis in the banking system of Kosovo, and also to identify the measures that the Central Bank and the Government should undertake in order to protect the economy from external implications.

  2. Controlling the spread of carbapenemase-producing Gram-negatives: therapeutic approach and infection control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmeli, Y; Akova, M; Cornaglia, G; Daikos, G L; Garau, J; Harbarth, S; Rossolini, G M; Souli, M; Giamarellou, H

    2010-02-01

    Although the rapid spread of carbapenemase-producing Gram-negatives (CPGNs) is providing the scientific community with a great deal of information about the molecular epidemiology of these enzymes and their genetic background, data on how to treat multidrug-resistant or extended drug-resistant carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae and how to contain their spread are still surprisingly limited, in spite of the rapidly increasing prevalence of these organisms and of their isolation from patients suffering from life-threatening infections. Limited clinical experience and several in vitro synergy studies seem to support the view that antibiotic combinations should be preferred to monotherapies. But, in light of the data available to date, it is currently impossible to quantify the real advantage of drug combinations in the treatment of these infections. Comprehensive clinical studies of the main therapeutic options, broken down by pathogen, enzyme and clinical syndrome, are definitely lacking and, as carbapenemases keep spreading, are urgently needed. This spread is unveiling the substantial unpreparedness of European public health structures to face this worrisome emergency, although experiences from different countries-chiefly Greece and Israel-have shown that CPGN transmission and cross-infection can cause a substantial threat to the healthcare system. This unpreparedness also affects the treatment of individual patients and infection control policies, with dramatic scarcities of both therapeutic options and infection control measures. Although correct implementation of such measures is presumably cumbersome and expensive, the huge clinical and public health problems related to CPGN transmission, alongside the current scarcity of therapeutic options, seem to fully justify this choice.

  3. Global survey of malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT) sales, procurement and lot verification practices: assessing the use of the WHO-FIND Malaria RDT Evaluation Programme (2011-2014).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Incardona, Sandra; Serra-Casas, Elisa; Champouillon, Nora; Nsanzabana, Christian; Cunningham, Jane; González, Iveth J

    2017-05-15

    Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) play a critical role in malaria case management, and assurance of quality is a key factor to promote good adherence to test results. Since 2007, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics (FIND) have coordinated a Malaria RDT Evaluation Programme, comprising a pre-purchase performance evaluation (product testing, PT) and a pre-distribution quality control of lots (lot testing, LT), the former being the basis of WHO recommendations for RDT procurement. Comprehensive information on malaria RDTs sold worldwide based on manufacturers' data and linked to independent performance data is currently not available, and detailed knowledge of procurement practices remains limited. The use of the PT/LT Programme results as well as procurement and lot verification practices were assessed through a large-scale survey, gathering product-specific RDT sales and procurement data (2011-14 period) from a total of 32 manufacturers, 12 procurers and 68 National Malaria Control Programmes (NMCPs). Manufacturers' reports showed that RDT sales had more than doubled over the four years, and confirmed a trend towards increased compliance with the WHO procurement criteria (from 83% in 2011 to 93% in 2014). Country-level reports indicated that 74% of NMCPs procured only 'WHO-compliant' RDT products, although procurers' transactions datasets revealed a surprisingly frequent overlap of different products and even product types (e.g., Plasmodium falciparum-only and Plasmodium-pan) in the same year and country (60 and 46% of countries, respectively). Importantly, the proportion of 'non-complying' (i.e., PT low scored or not evaluated) products was found to be higher in the private health care sector than in the public sector (32% vs 5%), and increasing over time (from 22% of private sector sales in 2011 to 39% in 2014). An estimated 70% of the RDT market was covered by the LT programme. The opinion about the PT

  4. Sharing Data for Global Infectious Disease Surveillance and Outbreak Detection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aarestrup, Frank Møller; Koopmans, Marion G.

    2016-01-01

    Rapid global sharing and comparison of epidemiological and genomic data on infectious diseases would enable more rapid and efficient global outbreak control and tracking of diseases. Several barriers for global sharing exist but, in our opinion, the presumed magnitude of the problems appears larger...

  5. Reliability and Efficiency of Generalized Rumor Spreading Model on Complex Social Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naimi, Yaghoob; Naimi, Mohammad

    2013-01-01

    We introduce the generalized rumor spreading model and investigate some properties of this model on different complex social networks. Despite pervious rumor models that both the spreader-spreader (SS) and the spreader-stifler (SR) interactions have the same rate α, we define α (1) and α (2) for SS and SR interactions, respectively. The effect of variation of α (1) and α (2) on the final density of stiflers is investigated. Furthermore, the influence of the topological structure of the network in rumor spreading is studied by analyzing the behavior of several global parameters such as reliability and efficiency. Our results show that while networks with homogeneous connectivity patterns reach a higher reliability, scale-free topologies need a less time to reach a steady state with respect the rumor. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  6. A Role for Human Skin Mast Cells in Dengue Virus Infection and Systemic Spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troupin, Andrea; Shirley, Devon; Londono-Renteria, Berlin; Watson, Alan M; McHale, Cody; Hall, Alex; Hartstone-Rose, Adam; Klimstra, William B; Gomez, Gregorio; Colpitts, Tonya M

    2016-12-01

    Dengue virus (DENV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that causes serious global human disease and mortality. Skin immune cells are an important component of initial DENV infection and systemic spread. Here, we show that mast cells are a target of DENV in human skin and that DENV infection of skin mast cells induces degranulation and alters cytokine and growth factor expression profiles. Importantly, to our knowledge, we also demonstrate for the first time that DENV localizes within secretory granules in infected skin mast cells. In addition, DENV within extracellular granules was infectious in vitro and in vivo, trafficking through lymph to draining lymph nodes in mice. We demonstrate an important role for human skin mast cells in DENV infection and identify a novel mechanism for systemic spread of DENV infection from the initial peripheral mosquito injection site. Copyright © 2016 by The American Association of Immunologists, Inc.

  7. [Environmental drivers of emergence and spreading of Vibrio epidemics in South America].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavilán, Ronnie G; Martínez-Urtaza, Jaime

    2011-03-01

    Vibrio cholerae and V. parahaemolyticus are the two Vibrio species with a major impact on human health. Diseases caused by both pathogens are acquiring increasing relevance due to their expansion at global scale. In this paper, we resume the ecological aspects associated with the arrival and spreading of infections caused by V. parahaemolyticus and V. cholerae in Peru from a South American perspective. Moreover, we discuss the similarities in the emergence in Peru of cholera cases in 1991 and V. parahaemolyticus infections in 1997. These constituted exceptional experiments to evaluate the relationships between the Vibrio epidemics and changes in the environment. The epidemic radiations of V. cholerae and V. parahaemolyticus constitute to clear examples supporting the oceanic dispersion of pathogenic vibrios and have enabled the identification of El Niño events as a potential mechanism for the spreading of diseases through the ocean.

  8. SHADOW GLOBALIZATION

    OpenAIRE

    Larissa Mihaylovna Kapitsa

    2014-01-01

    The article reviews some development trends brought about by globalization, particularly, a growing tax evasion and tax avoidance, an expansion of illicit financial flows and the proliferation of a global criminal network. The author draws attention to some new phenomena, particularly, cosmopolitanization of some parts of national elites and a deepening divide between national interests and the private interests of elites as a consequence of financial globalization. Modern mass media, both Ru...

  9. Global Mindset

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Olav Jull

    2016-01-01

    The concept of Global Mindset (GM) – the way to think about the global reality – is on the agenda of multinational companies concomitant with the increase in global complexity, uncertainty and diversity. In spite of a number of studies, the concept is still fluid and far from a managerial.......e. the capability to sense (quickly), reflect (constructively) and act purposefully (for mutual benefit). A case on an MNC is used at the end to show the organizational manifestations of a GM....

  10. Metabolic and hemodynamic activation of postischemic rat brain by cortical spreading depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocher, M

    1990-07-01

    Following transient ischemia of the brain, the coupling between somatosensory activation and the hemodynamic-metabolic response is abolished for a certain period despite the partial recovery of somatosensory evoked responses. To determine whether this disturbance is due to alterations of the stimulus-induced neuronal excitation or to a breakdown of the coupling mechanisms, cortical spreading depression was used as a metabolic stimulus in rats before and after ischemia. Adult rats were subjected to 30 min of global forebrain ischemia and 3-6 h of recirculation. EEG, cortical direct current (DC) potential, and laser-Doppler flow were continuously recorded. Local CBF (LCBF), local CMRglc (LCMRglc), regional tissue contents of ATP, glucose, and lactate, and regional pH were determined by quantitative autoradiography, substrate-induced bioluminescence, and fluorometry. Amplitude and frequency of the DC shifts did not differ between groups. In control animals, spreading depression induced a 77% rise in cortical glucose consumption, a 66% rise in lactate content, and a drop in tissue pH of 0.3 unit. ATP and glucose contents were not depleted. During the passage of DC shifts, transient increases (less than 2 min) in laser-Doppler flow were observed, followed by a post-spreading depression hypoperfusion. A comparable although less expressed pattern of hemodynamic and metabolic changes was observed in the postischemic rats. Although baseline LCMRglc was depressed after ischemia, it was activated 47% during spreading depression. Lactate increased by 26%, pH decreased by 0.3 unit, and ATP and glucose remained unchanged. The extent of the transient increase in laser-Doppler flow did not differ from that of the control group, and a post-spreading depression hypoperfusion was also found.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  11. Rapid Prototyping Laboratory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The ARDEC Rapid Prototyping (RP) Laboratory was established in December 1992 to provide low cost RP capabilities to the ARDEC engineering community. The Stratasys,...

  12. Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting Liu

    Full Text Available The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people's reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explore the interactions between disease spreading and population response in terms of information diffusion and individuals' alertness. We model the system by mapping multiplex networks into two-layer networks and incorporating individuals' risk awareness, on the assumption that their response to the disease spreading depends on the size of the community they belong to. By comparing the final incidence of diseases in multiplex networks, we find that there is considerable mitigation of diseases spreading for full phase of spreading speed when individuals' protection responses are introduced. Interestingly, the degree of community overlap between the two layers is found to be critical factor that affects the final incidence. We also analyze the consequences of the epidemic incidence in communities with different sizes and the impacts of community overlap between two layers. Specifically, as the diseases information makes individuals alert and take measures to prevent the diseases, the effective protection is more striking in small community. These phenomena can be explained by the multiplexity of the networked system and the competition between two spreading processes.

  13. Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ting; Li, Ping; Chen, Yan; Zhang, Jie

    2016-01-01

    The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people's reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explore the interactions between disease spreading and population response in terms of information diffusion and individuals' alertness. We model the system by mapping multiplex networks into two-layer networks and incorporating individuals' risk awareness, on the assumption that their response to the disease spreading depends on the size of the community they belong to. By comparing the final incidence of diseases in multiplex networks, we find that there is considerable mitigation of diseases spreading for full phase of spreading speed when individuals' protection responses are introduced. Interestingly, the degree of community overlap between the two layers is found to be critical factor that affects the final incidence. We also analyze the consequences of the epidemic incidence in communities with different sizes and the impacts of community overlap between two layers. Specifically, as the diseases information makes individuals alert and take measures to prevent the diseases, the effective protection is more striking in small community. These phenomena can be explained by the multiplexity of the networked system and the competition between two spreading processes.

  14. Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duan, W.; Quax, R.; Lees, M.; Qiu, X.; Sloot, P.M.A.

    2014-01-01

    Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support

  15. Dynamics of a spreading thin film with gravitational counterflow ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    film climbing up on a vertical substrate against gravity shows interesting dynamics ... For the spreading of a thin film several theoretical studies have shown quantitative agree- ..... The two critical values of this param- ... Davis J M, Fischer B J and Troian S M 2003 A general approach to the linear stability of thin spreading.

  16. Age-Related Changes in Spreading Activation during Infancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, Rachel; Walker, Joanne; Gross, Julien; Hayne, Harlene

    2014-01-01

    The concept of spreading activation describes how retrieval of one memory cues retrieval of other memories that are associated with it. This study explored spreading activation in 6-, 12-, and 18-month-old infants. Infants (n = 144) learned two tasks within the same experimental session; one task, deferred imitation (DI), is typically remembered…

  17. Credit ratings and bond spreads of the GIIPS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, Tim; de Haan, Jakob

    2016-01-01

    We examine the relationship between credit ratings and bond yield spreads of peripheral countries in the euro area (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) for the period 1995-2014. Since 2012, bond spreads of those countries have come down very fast, whereas credit ratings have hardly changed.

  18. Spread of H1N1 within Households

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    This podcast describes an investigation into how H1N1 was spreading within households during the initial days of the pandemic in Texas. CDC's Dr. Oliver Morgan discusses what investigators learned about the role that children played in introducing the virus into households and spreading flu.

  19. Comparative study on spreading function for directional wave spectra

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Bhat, S.S.; Anand, N.M.; Nayak, B.U.

    -dimensional wave energy S(f) and the directional spreading function D(f, theta). This paper reviews various spreading functions proposed in the past for estimating the directional wave energy and presents their application to the Indian wave condition. It is found...

  20. The potential and realized spread of wildfires across Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xianli Wang; Marc-Andre Parisien; Mike D. Flannigan; Sean A. Parks; Kerry R. Anderson; John M. Little; Steve W. Taylor

    2014-01-01

    Given that they can burn for weeks or months, wildfires in temperate and boreal forests may become immense (eg., 100 - 04 km2). However, during the period within which a large fire is 'active', not all days experience weather that is conducive to fire spread; indeed most of the spread occurs on a small proportion (e.g., 1 - 15 days) of not necessarily...

  1. An examination of fire spread thresholds in discontinuous fuel beds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark A. Finney; Jack D. Cohen; Isaac C. Grenfell; Kara M. Yedinak

    2010-01-01

    Many fuel beds, especially live vegetation canopies (conifer forests, shrub fields, bunch-grasses) contain gaps between vegetation clumps. Fires burning in these fuel types often display thresholds for spread that are observed to depend on environmental factors like wind, slope, and fuel moisture content. To investigate threshold spread behaviours, we conducted a set...

  2. Individual stock-option prices and credit spreads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cremers, M.; Driessen, J.; Maenhout, P.; Weinbaum, D.

    2008-01-01

    This paper introduces measures of volatility and jump risk that are based on individual stock options to explain credit spreads on corporate bonds. Implied volatilities of individual options are shown to contain useful information for credit spreads and improve on historical volatilities when

  3. Human activity and the spread of Phytophthora ramorum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall J. Cushman; Michelle Cooper; Ross K. Meentemeyer; Shelly Benson

    2008-01-01

    Increasing numbers of studies are finding that humans can facilitate the spread of exotic plant species in protected wildlands. Hiking trails commonly serve as conduits for invaders and the number of exotic plant species occurring in protected areas is often correlated positively with visitation rates. Despite such evidence linking human activity to the spread of...

  4. Raman hyperspectral imaging and analysis of fat spreads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalen, van G.; Velzen, van E.J.J.; Heussen, P.C.M.; Sovago, M.; Malssen, van K.F.; Duynhoven, van J.P.M.

    2017-01-01

    The microstructure of fat spreads is of fundamental importance to their sensorial properties such as texture, mouthfeel and spreadability. Fat spreads are water in oil emulsions,with a continuous phase supported by a fat crystal network. Confocal Raman microscopy offers the possibility for the

  5. The Influence of Globalization on Turkish Sports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Mehmet

    2018-01-01

    This paper addresses the phenomenon of globalization, which has also spread to sports, in terms of its economic, social and cultural aspects; while discussing the concept based on examples from the discipline of football in the premier league of Turkey. In this framework, sports labor emigration mobility is handled, and sponsorship and the effects…

  6. Degree of host susceptibility in the initial disease outbreak influences subsequent epidemic spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severns, Paul M.; Estep, Laura K.; Sackett, Kathryn E.; Mundt, Christopher C.

    2014-01-01

    Summary Disease epidemics typically begin as an outbreak of a relatively small, spatially explicit population of infected individuals (focus), in which disease prevalence increases and rapidly spreads into the uninfected, at-risk population. Studies of epidemic spread typically address factors influencing disease spread through the at-risk population, but the initial outbreak may strongly influence spread of the subsequent epidemic.We initiated wheat stripe rust Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici epidemics to assess the influence of the focus on final disease prevalence when the degree of disease susceptibility differed between the at-risk and focus populations.When the focus/at-risk plantings consisted of partially genetic resistant and susceptible cultivars, final disease prevalence was statistically indistinguishable from epidemics produced by the focus cultivar in monoculture. In these experimental epidemics, disease prevalence was not influenced by the transition into an at-risk population that differed in disease susceptibility. Instead, the focus appeared to exert a dominant influence on the subsequent epidemic.Final disease prevalence was not consistently attributable to either the focus or the at-risk population when focus/at-risk populations were planted in a factorial set-up with a mixture (~28% susceptible and 72% resistant) and susceptible individuals. In these experimental epidemics, spatial heterogeneity in disease susceptibility within the at-risk population appeared to counter the dominant influence of the focus.Cessation of spore production from the focus (through fungicide/glyphosate application) after 1.3 generations of stripe rust spread did not reduce final disease prevalence, indicating that the focus influence on disease spread is established early in the epidemic.Synthesis and applications. Our experiments indicated that outbreak conditions can be highly influential on epidemic spread, even when disease resistance in the at-risk population

  7. Epidemic spread in bipartite network by considering risk awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, She; Sun, Mei; Ampimah, Benjamin Chris; Han, Dun

    2018-02-01

    Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. Exploring the interplay between human awareness and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. Considering the fact, some well-known diseases only spread between different species we propose a theoretical analysis of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spread from the perspective of bipartite network and risk aversion. Using mean field theory, the epidemic threshold is calculated theoretically. Simulation results are consistent with the proposed analytic model. The results show that, the final infection density is negative linear with the value of individuals' risk awareness. Therefore, the epidemic spread could be effectively suppressed by improving individuals' risk awareness.

  8. The spreading time in SIS epidemics on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Zhidong; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2018-03-01

    In a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) process, we investigate the spreading time Tm, which is the time when the number of infected nodes in the metastable state is first reached, starting from the outbreak of the epidemics. We observe that the spreading time Tm resembles a lognormal-like distribution, though with different deep tails, both for the Markovian and the non-Markovian infection process, which implies that the spreading time can be very long with a relatively high probability. In addition, we show that a stronger virus, with a higher effective infection rate τ or an earlier timing of the infection attempts, does not always lead to a shorter average spreading time E [Tm ] . We numerically demonstrate that the average spreading time E [Tm ] in the complete graph and the star graph scales logarithmically as a function of the network size N for a fixed fraction of infected nodes in the metastable state.

  9. Spread of Leishmania infantum in Europe with dog travelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maia, Carla; Cardoso, Luís

    2015-09-30

    Leishmania infantum is the etiological agent of canine leishmaniosis (CanL) in Europe, where it is endemic in the Mediterranean region, with dogs being considered the major reservoir of the parasite for humans and other mammalian hosts. The main transmission mode of Leishmania is by the bite of infected phlebotomine sand fly insects (genus Phlebotomus), which are the only proven vectors of this zoonotic protozoan. Less common, non-vectorial transmission between dogs include infection through transfused blood products from infected donors, transplacental and venereal transmission. CanL has exhibited an expansion to new locations in Europe, mainly northwards, either by territorial contiguity, often in association with global warming that favours vectorial transmission, or by the long-distance importation of infected dogs. The increasing incidence of CanL in countries where the disease is not endemic is challenging owners, veterinarians and government authorities. Most infected dogs in these new areas have been relocated from or travelled with their owners to endemic regions, but in some cases transmission might have also been autochthonous. In the absence of prophylactic measures, the introduction of infected dogs in areas previously free of endemic CanL but which have competent sand fly vectors can result in a potential persistence of L. infantum. The spread of L. infantum in Europe is reviewed with a focus on transmission, epidemiology and geographic distribution of endemic and non-endemic CanL, infection and disease in humans and animal hosts other than dogs, together with prevention and additional control strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Transmission loss patterns from acoustic harassment and deterrent devices do not always follow geometrical spreading predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shapiro, A.D.; Tougaard, J.; Jørgensen, P.B.

    2009-01-01

    and cylindrical spreading models and conflicted with the classic concept of concentric zones of increasing disturbance with decreasing range. Under such conditions, animals may encounter difficulties when trying to determine the direction to and location of a sound source, which may complicate or jeopardize...... level for all sources in each of the environments. This variability was likely caused by source directionality, inter-ping source level variation and multipath interference. Rapid and unpredictable variations in the sound level as a function of range deviated from expectations derived from spherical...

  11. Catalunya a l'aldea global

    OpenAIRE

    Pes, Àngel

    1999-01-01

    Small societies must also adapt to an increasingly integrated world, econmmically, culturally and politically. Globalization is a polifaceted phenomenon transforming the world into a global village. Three examples of globalisation are the rapidly extended financial crisis, with the threat of global recession; the arrest of Pinochet in London on a Spanish warrant, marking the birth of a global public opinion; and the acceptance of differences as a way to solve conflicts both in Nor...

  12. Flame spread over inclined electrical wires with AC electric fields

    KAUST Repository

    Lim, Seung J.

    2017-07-21

    Flame spread over polyethylene-insulated electrical wires was studied experimentally with applied alternating current (AC) by varying the inclination angle (θ), applied voltage (VAC), and frequency (fAC). For the baseline case with no electric field applied, the flame spread rate and the flame width of downwardly spreading flames (DSFs) decreased from the horizontal case for −20° ≤ θ < 0° and maintained near constant values for −90° ≤ θ < −20°, while the flame spread rate increased appreciably as the inclination angle of upwardly spreading flames (USFs) increased. When an AC electric field was applied, the behavior of flame spread rate in DSFs (USFs) could be classified into two (three) sub-regimes characterized by various functional dependences on VAC, fAC, and θ. In nearly all cases of DSFs, a globular molten polyethylene formed ahead of the spreading flame edge, occasionally dripping onto the ground. In these cases, an effective flame spread rate was defined to represent the burning rate by measuring the mass loss due to dripping. This effective spread rate was independent of AC frequency, while it decreased linearly with voltage and was independent of the inclination angle. In DSFs, when excessively high voltage and frequency were applied, the dripping led to flame extinction during propagation and the extinction frequency correlated well with applied voltage. In USFs, when high voltage and frequency were applied, multiple globular molten PEs formed at several locations, leading to ejections of multiple small flame segments from the main flame, thereby reducing the flame spread rate, which could be attributed to the electrospray phenomenon.

  13. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change provides data and information on global and regional land cover change in raster format for...

  14. Rapid Tooling via Stereolithography

    OpenAIRE

    Montgomery, Eva

    2006-01-01

    Approximately three years ago, composite stereolithography (SL) resins were introduced to the marketplace, offering performance features beyond what traditional SL resins could offer. In particular, the high heat deflection temperatures and high stiffness of these highly filled resins have opened the door to several new rapid prototyping (RP) applications, including wind tunnel test modelling and, more recently, rapid tooling.

  15. Nuclear stockpiles globalization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jouffray, Fabien

    2016-01-01

    For technological reasons, but more importantly political ones, the spread of nuclear weapons is foreseen as inevitable especially with the multiplication of so-called 'threshold states'. On the one hand, technological barriers will gradually disappear with globalization and information sharing in our societies. Furthermore, becoming a threshold power appears today as key to get freedom of action, a tool of counter-deterrence or blackmail according to the camp you belong to, like in the Iranian and north Korean cases. For proliferant countries, it will now consist in an enforcement of an embryonic, even though rather deterrent or even threatening, nuclear program thanks to new technologies, reducing completion times and even allowing to skip the final nuclear test

  16. Gendering Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Siim, Birte

    2009-01-01

    The current global financial situation bluntly and brutally brings home the fact that the global and local are closely connected in times of opportunity as well as crises. The articles in this issue of Asia Insights are about ontra-action between Asia, particularly China, and the Nordic countries...

  17. Developing Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Annette Skovsted

    2017-01-01

    This chapter is the first qualitative micro case study of one aspect of globalization: personal networks as a concrete outcome of development assistance spending. The empirical findings related in this paper present circumstantial evidence that Japanese foreign aid has contributed to globalization...

  18. Global Uddannelse

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Niels Rosendal

    Antologien handler om "demokratiproblemer i den globale sammenhæng" (del I) og "demokratiproblemer i uddannelse og for de offentligt ansatte" (del II), bundet sammen af et mellemstykke, der rækker ud mod begge poler både det globale og det lokale ved at knytte det til forholdet mellem marked...

  19. Global Mindsets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Global Mindsets: Exploration and Perspectives seeks to tackle a topic that is relatively new in research and practice, and is considered by many to be critical for firms seeking to conduct global business. It argues that multiple mindsets exist (across and within organizations), that they operate...... in a global context, and that they are dynamic and undergo change and action. Part of the mindset(s) may depend upon place, situation and context where individuals and organizations operate. The book will examine the notion of "mindset" is situational and dynamic, especially in a global setting, why...... it is important for future scholars and managers and how it could be conceptualized. Global Mindsets: Exploration and Perspectives is split into two major sections; the first examines where the literature currently is with respect to the knowledge in the field and what conceptual frameworks guide the thinking...

  20. Global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    Canada's Green Plan strategy for dealing with global warming is being implemented as a multidepartmental partnership involving all Canadians and the international community. Many of the elements of this strategy are built on an existing base of activities predating the Green Plan. Elements of the strategy include programs to limit emissions of greenhouse gases, such as initiatives to encourage more energy-efficient practices and development of alternate fuel sources; studies and policy developments to help Canadians prepare and adapt to climate change; research on the global warming phenomenon; and stimulation of international action on global warming, including obligations arising out of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All the program elements have been approved, funded, and announced. Major achievements to date are summarized, including improvements in the Energy Efficiency Act, studies on the socioeconomic impacts of global warming, and participation in monitoring networks. Milestones associated with the remaining global warming initiatives are listed

  1. Rapid improvement teams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alemi, F; Moore, S; Headrick, L; Neuhauser, D; Hekelman, F; Kizys, N

    1998-03-01

    Suggestions, most of which are supported by empirical studies, are provided on how total quality management (TQM) teams can be used to bring about faster organizationwide improvements. Ideas are offered on how to identify the right problem, have rapid meetings, plan rapidly, collect data rapidly, and make rapid whole-system changes. Suggestions for identifying the right problem include (1) postpone benchmarking when problems are obvious, (2) define the problem in terms of customer experience so as not to blame employees nor embed a solution in the problem statement, (3) communicate with the rest of the organization from the start, (4) state the problem from different perspectives, and (5) break large problems into smaller units. Suggestions for having rapid meetings include (1) choose a nonparticipating facilitator to expedite meetings, (2) meet with each team member before the team meeting, (3) postpone evaluation of ideas, and (4) rethink conclusions of a meeting before acting on them. Suggestions for rapid planning include reducing time spent on flowcharting by focusing on the future, not the present. Suggestions for rapid data collection include (1) sample patients for surveys, (2) rely on numerical estimates by process owners, and (3) plan for rapid data collection. Suggestions for rapid organizationwide implementation include (1) change membership on cross-functional teams, (2) get outside perspectives, (3) use unfolding storyboards, and (4) go beyond self-interest to motivate lasting change in the organization. Additional empirical investigations of time saved as a consequence of the strategies provided are needed. If organizations solve their problems rapidly, fewer unresolved problems may remain.

  2. Globalization, Tax Competition and Tax Burden İn Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veli KARGI

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available 1990’s world was quite different from the world of 1950’s. Especially in the last twenty years, the increasing involvement of Japan in the world economy since the 1990s, in addition to the dominance of globalization and market economy throughout the world, the rapid spread of information resulting from the developments in IT-technology and the international competition emerging in the field of technology have all led to some significant developments in the world economy. Reduction of high mobility income and corporate tax rates due to tax competition may cause an unjust distribution of the tax burden. The fact that indirect taxation constitutes about 70% of the tax revenues obtained in Turkey can be taken as an indication of the unfairness in the distribution of tax burden in Turkey. In this study, following a definition of globalization and tax competition, classification of tax competition, reasons for increasing tax competition, benefits and losses of tax competition are explained, and changes introduced by various countries in their tax systems due to tax competition, the distribution of tax burden resulting from tax competition in Turkey and the effectiveness of the new income tax law in Turkey in terms of tax competition are analyzed.

  3. Target-Specific Assay for Rapid and Quantitative Detection of Mycobacterium chimaera DNA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zozaya-Valdés, Enrique; Porter, Jessica L; Coventry, John; Fyfe, Janet A M; Carter, Glen P; Gonçalves da Silva, Anders; Schultz, Mark B; Seemann, Torsten; Johnson, Paul D R; Stewardson, Andrew J; Bastian, Ivan; Roberts, Sally A; Howden, Benjamin P; Williamson, Deborah A; Stinear, Timothy P

    2017-06-01

    Mycobacterium chimaera is an opportunistic environmental mycobacterium belonging to the Mycobacterium avium - M. intracellulare complex. Although most commonly associated with pulmonary disease, there has been growing awareness of invasive M. chimaera infections following cardiac surgery. Investigations suggest worldwide spread of a specific M. chimaera clone, associated with contaminated hospital heater-cooler units used during the surgery. Given the global dissemination of this clone, its potential to cause invasive disease, and the laboriousness of current culture-based diagnostic methods, there is a pressing need to develop rapid and accurate diagnostic assays specific for M. chimaera Here, we assessed 354 mycobacterial genome sequences and confirmed that M. chimaera is a phylogenetically coherent group. In silico comparisons indicated six DNA regions present only in M. chimaera We targeted one of these regions and developed a TaqMan quantitative PCR (qPCR) assay for M. chimaera with a detection limit of 100 CFU/ml in whole blood spiked with bacteria. In vitro screening against DNA extracted from 40 other mycobacterial species and 22 bacterial species from 21 diverse genera confirmed the in silico -predicted specificity for M. chimaera Screening 33 water samples from heater-cooler units with this assay highlighted the increased sensitivity of PCR compared to culture, with 15 of 23 culture-negative samples positive by M. chimaera qPCR. We have thus developed a robust molecular assay that can be readily and rapidly deployed to screen clinical and environmental specimens for M. chimaera . Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

  4. A seawater desalination scheme for global hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, Naota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kakinuma, Kaoru; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2016-10-01

    Seawater desalination is a practical technology for providing fresh water to coastal arid regions. Indeed, the use of desalination is rapidly increasing due to growing water demand in these areas and decreases in production costs due to technological advances. In this study, we developed a model to estimate the areas where seawater desalination is likely to be used as a major water source and the likely volume of production. The model was designed to be incorporated into global hydrological models (GHMs) that explicitly include human water usage. The model requires spatially detailed information on climate, income levels, and industrial and municipal water use, which represent standard input/output data in GHMs. The model was applied to a specific historical year (2005) and showed fairly good reproduction of the present geographical distribution and national production of desalinated water in the world. The model was applied globally to two periods in the future (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) under three distinct socioeconomic conditions, i.e., SSP (shared socioeconomic pathway) 1, SSP2, and SSP3. The results indicate that the usage of seawater desalination will have expanded considerably in geographical extent, and that production will have increased by 1.4-2.1-fold in 2011-2040 compared to the present (from 2.8 × 109 m3 yr-1 in 2005 to 4.0-6.0 × 109 m3 yr-1), and 6.7-17.3-fold in 2041-2070 (from 18.7 to 48.6 × 109 m3 yr-1). The estimated global costs for production for each period are USD 1.1-10.6 × 109 (0.002-0.019 % of the total global GDP), USD 1.6-22.8 × 109 (0.001-0.020 %), and USD 7.5-183.9 × 109 (0.002-0.100 %), respectively. The large spreads in these projections are primarily attributable to variations within the socioeconomic scenarios.

  5. Ex-vessel corium spreading: results from the VULCANO spreading tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Journeau, Christophe E-mail: christophe.journeau@cea.fr; Boccaccio, Eric E-mail: eric.boccaccio@cea.fr; Brayer, Claude; Cognet, Gerard E-mail: gerard.cognet@cea.fr; Haquet, Jean-Francois E-mail: haquet@eloise.cad.cea.fr; Jegou, Claude E-mail: claude.jegou@cea.fr; Piluso, Pascal E-mail: pascal.piluso@cea.fr; Monerris, Jose E-mail: jose.monerris@cea.fr

    2003-07-01

    In the hypothetical case of a nuclear reactor severe accident, the reactor core could melt and form a mixture, called corium, of highly refractory oxides (UO{sub 2}, ZrO{sub 2}) and metallic or oxidized steel, that could eventually flow out of the vessel and mix with the basemat decomposition products (generally oxides such as SiO{sub 2}, Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}, CaO, Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3}, ...). For some years, the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) has launched an R and D program which aimed at providing the tools for improving the mastering of severe accidents. Within this program, the VULCANO experimental facility is operated to perform experiments with prototypic corium (corium of realistic chemical composition including depleted UO{sub 2}). This is coupled with the use of specific high-temperature instrumentation requiring in situ cross calibration. This paper is devoted to the 'spreading experiments' performed in the VULCANO facility, in which the effects of flow and solidification are studied. Due to the complex behavior of corium in the solidification range, an interdisciplinary approach has been used combining thermodynamics of multicomponent mixtures, rheological models of silicic semisolid materials, heat transfer at high temperatures, free-surface flow of a fluid with temperature-dependant properties. Twelve high-temperature spreading tests have been performed and analyzed. The main experimental results are the good spreadability of corium-concrete mixtures having large solidification ranges even with viscous silicic melts, the change of microstructure due to cooling rates, the occurrence of a large thermal contact resistance at the corium-substrate interface, the presence of a steep viscosity gradient at the surface, the transient concrete ablation. Furthermore, the experiments showed the presence of the gaseous inclusions in the melt even without concrete substrate. This gas release is linked to the local oxygen content in the melt which is

  6. Existence of global attractor for the Trojan Y Chromosome model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaopeng Zhao

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the long time behavior of solution for the equation derived by the Trojan Y Chromosome (TYC model with spatial spread. Based on the regularity estimates for the semigroups and the classical existence theorem of global attractors, we prove that this equations possesses a global attractor in $H^k(\\Omega^4$ $(k\\geq 0$ space.

  7. Globalization, English Language Policy, and Teacher Agency: Focus on Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamid, M. Obaidul; Nguyen, Hoa Thi Mai

    2016-01-01

    This paper focuses on English teachers in Asia in the context of globalization, the global spread of English and the emergence of English as an "Asian language." It highlights the dilemmas facing these teachers in meeting the growing social demands of English proficiency in a technology-influenced, managerial and neoliberal education…

  8. A model of spreading of sudden events on social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jiao; Zheng, Muhua; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Wang, Wei; Gu, Changgui; Liu, Zonghua

    2018-03-01

    Information spreading has been studied for decades, but its underlying mechanism is still under debate, especially for those ones spreading extremely fast through the Internet. By focusing on the information spreading data of six typical events on Sina Weibo, we surprisingly find that the spreading of modern information shows some new features, i.e., either extremely fast or slow, depending on the individual events. To understand its mechanism, we present a susceptible-accepted-recovered model with both information sensitivity and social reinforcement. Numerical simulations show that the model can reproduce the main spreading patterns of the six typical events. By this model, we further reveal that the spreading can be speeded up by increasing either the strength of information sensitivity or social reinforcement. Depending on the transmission probability and information sensitivity, the final accepted size can change from continuous to discontinuous transition when the strength of the social reinforcement is large. Moreover, an edge-based compartmental theory is presented to explain the numerical results. These findings may be of significance on the control of information spreading in modern society.

  9. A review of recent results on spread F theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ossakow, S.L.

    1979-01-01

    Ionospheric Spread F was discovered some four decades ago. Yet only in the past few years has significant progress been made in the theoretical explanation of such phenomena. In particular, considerable effort has been expended to explain equatorial Spread F and the attendant satellite signal propagation scintillation phenomena. The present review dwells mainly in this low latitude area. The various linear plasma instabilities thought to initiate equatorial Spread F are discussed. Recent theoretical and numerical simulation studies of the nonlinear evolution of the collisional Rayleigh-Taylor instability in equatorial Spread F are reviewed. Also, analytical studies of rising equatorial Spread F bubbles in the collisional and collisionless Rayleigh-Taylor regime are discussed, as well as the nohlinear saturation of instabilities in these two regimes. Current theories on very small scale (< approx 10 meters) size irregularities observed by radar backscatter during equatorial Spread F and their relation to the larger wavelength scintillation causing irregularities are discussed. Application of turbulence theory to equatorial Spread F phenomena is reviewed. Remaining problems to be dealt with at equatorial latitudes are summarized. (Auth.)

  10. Influence of trust in the spreading of information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Hongrun; Arenas, Alex; Gómez, Sergio

    2017-01-01

    The understanding and prediction of information diffusion processes on networks is a major challenge in network theory with many implications in social sciences. Many theoretical advances occurred due to stochastic spreading models. Nevertheless, these stochastic models overlooked the influence of rational decisions on the outcome of the process. For instance, different levels of trust in acquaintances do play a role in information spreading, and actors may change their spreading decisions during the information diffusion process accordingly. Here, we study an information-spreading model in which the decision to transmit or not is based on trust. We explore the interplay between the propagation of information and the trust dynamics happening on a two-layer multiplex network. Actors' trustable or untrustable states are defined as accumulated cooperation or defection behaviors, respectively, in a Prisoner's Dilemma setup, and they are controlled by a memory span. The propagation of information is abstracted as a threshold model on the information-spreading layer, where the threshold depends on the trustability of agents. The analysis of the model is performed using a tree approximation and validated on homogeneous and heterogeneous networks. The results show that the memory of previous actions has a significant effect on the spreading of information. For example, the less memory that is considered, the higher is the diffusion. Information is highly promoted by the emergence of trustable acquaintances. These results provide insight into the effect of plausible biases on spreading dynamics in a multilevel networked system.

  11. Effects of individual popularity on information spreading in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Lei; Li, Ruiqi; Shu, Panpan; Wang, Wei; Gao, Hui; Cai, Shimin

    2018-01-01

    In real world, human activities often exhibit preferential selection mechanism based on the popularity of individuals. However, this mechanism is seldom taken into account by previous studies about spreading dynamics on networks. Thus in this work, an information spreading model is proposed by considering the preferential selection based on individuals' current popularity, which is defined as the number of individuals' cumulative contacts with informed neighbors. A mean-field theory is developed to analyze the spreading model. Through systematically studying the information spreading dynamics on uncorrelated configuration networks as well as real-world networks, we find that the popularity preference has great impacts on the information spreading. On the one hand, the information spreading is facilitated, i.e., a larger final prevalence of information and a smaller outbreak threshold, if nodes with low popularity are preferentially selected. In this situation, the effective contacts between informed nodes and susceptible nodes are increased, and nodes almost have uniform probabilities of obtaining the information. On the other hand, if nodes with high popularity are preferentially selected, the final prevalence of information is reduced, the outbreak threshold is increased, and even the information cannot outbreak. In addition, the heterogeneity of the degree distribution and the structure of real-world networks do not qualitatively affect the results. Our research can provide some theoretical supports for the promotion of spreading such as information, health related behaviors, and new products, etc.

  12. Deterministic ripple-spreading model for complex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiao-Bing; Wang, Ming; Leeson, Mark S; Hines, Evor L; Di Paolo, Ezequiel

    2011-04-01

    This paper proposes a deterministic complex network model, which is inspired by the natural ripple-spreading phenomenon. The motivations and main advantages of the model are the following: (i) The establishment of many real-world networks is a dynamic process, where it is often observed that the influence of a few local events spreads out through nodes, and then largely determines the final network topology. Obviously, this dynamic process involves many spatial and temporal factors. By simulating the natural ripple-spreading process, this paper reports a very natural way to set up a spatial and temporal model for such complex networks. (ii) Existing relevant network models are all stochastic models, i.e., with a given input, they cannot output a unique topology. Differently, the proposed ripple-spreading model can uniquely determine the final network topology, and at the same time, the stochastic feature of complex networks is captured by randomly initializing ripple-spreading related parameters. (iii) The proposed model can use an easily manageable number of ripple-spreading related parameters to precisely describe a network topology, which is more memory efficient when compared with traditional adjacency matrix or similar memory-expensive data structures. (iv) The ripple-spreading model has a very good potential for both extensions and applications.

  13. Note on numerical study of the beam energy spread in NDCX-I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vay, J.-L.; Seidl, P.A.; Friedman, A.

    2011-01-01

    ). The energy spread starts at 0.1 eV at the source and rapidly rises to a few eV, then fluctuates between a fraction of an eV and tens of eV, ending near the exit in a range of a few eV at the outer edge of the beam to a few tens of eV near the axis. The higher value on-axis is associated with greater numerical noise there, due to the axisymmetric geometry of the calculation, resulting in poorer simulation-particle statistics at small radius. A scatter plot of the macroparticles kinetic energy (KE) versus radius (R) and longitudinal position (0.28 m < z < 3 m) colored by local energy spread is shown in Fig. 2 (b). As expected, there is a correlation of the kinetic energy with radius that is clearly visible at z = 2.8 m and vanishes at the metal plate at z = 3 m. More snapshots from simulations varying the time step, grid resolution and number of macroparticles are given in Appendix II. The macro-particles were collected at the exit plate and their kinetic energy history is plotted in Fig. 3 (left) and contrasted to an experimental measurement using a streak camera shown in Fig. 3. For some types of measurements, averaging over several pulses to improve signal-to-noise will contribute an additional spread that may not be present on any single beam pulse. The upper bound for the energy spread is in the range of a few 100 eV for the experiment while in the range of a few eV for the reported Warp simulations. The Marx voltage exhibits variations in the range of up to several hundreds of volts, playing a significant role in the experimentally measured energy spread, which may account for the difference between the experimental and the simulated bounds.

  14. Rapid response systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Patrick G; Edelson, Dana P; Churpek, Matthew M

    2018-07-01

    Rapid response systems are commonly employed by hospitals to identify and respond to deteriorating patients outside of the intensive care unit. Controversy exists about the benefits of rapid response systems. We aimed to review the current state of the rapid response literature, including evolving aspects of afferent (risk detection) and efferent (intervention) arms, outcome measurement, process improvement, and implementation. Articles written in English and published in PubMed. Rapid response systems are heterogeneous, with important differences among afferent and efferent arms. Clinically meaningful outcomes may include unexpected mortality, in-hospital cardiac arrest, length of stay, cost, and processes of care at end of life. Both positive and negative interventional studies have been published, although the two largest randomized trials involving rapid response systems - the Medical Early Response and Intervention Trial (MERIT) and the Effect of a Pediatric Early Warning System on All-Cause Mortality in Hospitalized Pediatric Patients (EPOCH) trial - did not find a mortality benefit with these systems, albeit with important limitations. Advances in monitoring technologies, risk assessment strategies, and behavioral ergonomics may offer opportunities for improvement. Rapid responses may improve some meaningful outcomes, although these findings remain controversial. These systems may also improve care for patients at the end of life. Rapid response systems are expected to continue evolving with novel developments in monitoring technologies, risk prediction informatics, and work in human factors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. HIV Cell-to-Cell Spread Results in Earlier Onset of Viral Gene Expression by Multiple Infections per Cell.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikaël Boullé

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Cell-to-cell spread of HIV, a directed mode of viral transmission, has been observed to be more rapid than cell-free infection. However, a mechanism for earlier onset of viral gene expression in cell-to-cell spread was previously uncharacterized. Here we used time-lapse microscopy combined with automated image analysis to quantify the timing of the onset of HIV gene expression in a fluorescent reporter cell line, as well as single cell staining for infection over time in primary cells. We compared cell-to-cell spread of HIV to cell-free infection, and limited both types of transmission to a two-hour window to minimize differences due to virus transit time to the cell. The mean time to detectable onset of viral gene expression in cell-to-cell spread was accelerated by 19% in the reporter cell line and by 35% in peripheral blood mononuclear cells relative to cell-free HIV infection. Neither factors secreted by infected cells, nor contact with infected cells in the absence of transmission, detectably changed onset. We recapitulated the earlier onset by infecting with multiple cell-free viruses per cell. Surprisingly, the acceleration in onset of viral gene expression was not explained by cooperativity between infecting virions. Instead, more rapid onset was consistent with a model where the fastest expressing virus out of the infecting virus pool sets the time for infection independently of the other co-infecting viruses.

  16. Did vaccination slow the spread of bluetongue in France?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryline Pioz

    Full Text Available Vaccination is one of the most efficient ways to control the spread of infectious diseases. Simulations are now widely used to assess how vaccination can limit disease spread as well as mitigate morbidity or mortality in susceptible populations. However, field studies investigating how much vaccines decrease the velocity of epizootic wave-fronts during outbreaks are rare. This study aimed at investigating the effect of vaccination on the propagation of bluetongue, a vector-borne disease of ruminants. We used data from the 2008 bluetongue virus serotype 1 (BTV-1 epizootic of southwest France. As the virus was newly introduced in this area, natural immunity of livestock was absent. This allowed determination of the role of vaccination in changing the velocity of bluetongue spread while accounting for environmental factors that possibly influenced it. The average estimated velocity across the country despite restriction on animal movements was 5.4 km/day, which is very similar to the velocity of spread of the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epizootic in France also estimated in a context of restrictions on animal movements. Vaccination significantly reduced the propagation velocity of BTV-1. In comparison to municipalities with no vaccine coverage, the velocity of BTV-1 spread decreased by 1.7 km/day in municipalities with immunized animals. For the first time, the effect of vaccination has been quantified using data from a real epizootic whilst accounting for environmental factors known to modify the velocity of bluetongue spread. Our findings emphasize the importance of vaccination in limiting disease spread across natural landscape. Finally, environmental factors, specifically those related to vector abundance and activity, were found to be good predictors of the velocity of BTV-1 spread, indicating that these variables need to be adequately accounted for when evaluating the role of vaccination on bluetongue spread.

  17. A study of the spreading scheme for viral marketing based on a complex network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jianmei; Yao, Canzhong; Ma, Weicheng; Chen, Guanrong

    2010-02-01

    Buzzword-based viral marketing, known also as digital word-of-mouth marketing, is a marketing mode attached to some carriers on the Internet, which can rapidly copy marketing information at a low cost. Viral marketing actually uses a pre-existing social network where, however, the scale of the pre-existing network is believed to be so large and so random, so that its theoretical analysis is intractable and unmanageable. There are very few reports in the literature on how to design a spreading scheme for viral marketing on real social networks according to the traditional marketing theory or the relatively new network marketing theory. Complex network theory provides a new model for the study of large-scale complex systems, using the latest developments of graph theory and computing techniques. From this perspective, the present paper extends the complex network theory and modeling into the research of general viral marketing and develops a specific spreading scheme for viral marking and an approach to design the scheme based on a real complex network on the QQ instant messaging system. This approach is shown to be rather universal and can be further extended to the design of various spreading schemes for viral marketing based on different instant messaging systems.

  18. Epidemic Spread of Symbiotic and Non-Symbiotic Bradyrhizobium Genotypes Across California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollowell, A C; Regus, J U; Gano, K A; Bantay, R; Centeno, D; Pham, J; Lyu, J Y; Moore, D; Bernardo, A; Lopez, G; Patil, A; Patel, S; Lii, Y; Sachs, J L

    2016-04-01

    The patterns and drivers of bacterial strain dominance remain poorly understood in natural populations. Here, we cultured 1292 Bradyrhizobium isolates from symbiotic root nodules and the soil root interface of the host plant Acmispon strigosus across a >840-km transect in California. To investigate epidemiology and the potential role of accessory loci as epidemic drivers, isolates were genotyped at two chromosomal loci and were assayed for presence or absence of accessory "symbiosis island" loci that encode capacity to form nodules on hosts. We found that Bradyrhizobium populations were very diverse but dominated by few haplotypes-with a single "epidemic" haplotype constituting nearly 30 % of collected isolates and spreading nearly statewide. In many Bradyrhizobium lineages, we inferred presence and absence of the symbiosis island suggesting recurrent evolutionary gain and or loss of symbiotic capacity. We did not find statistical phylogenetic evidence that the symbiosis island acquisition promotes strain dominance and both symbiotic and non-symbiotic strains exhibited population dominance and spatial spread. Our dataset reveals that a strikingly few Bradyrhizobium genotypes can rapidly spread to dominate a landscape and suggests that these epidemics are not driven by the acquisition of accessory loci as occurs in key human pathogens.

  19. SHADOW GLOBALIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larissa Mihaylovna Kapitsa

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article reviews some development trends brought about by globalization, particularly, a growing tax evasion and tax avoidance, an expansion of illicit financial flows and the proliferation of a global criminal network. The author draws attention to some new phenomena, particularly, cosmopolitanization of some parts of national elites and a deepening divide between national interests and the private interests of elites as a consequence of financial globalization. Modern mass media, both Russian and foreign, tend to interpret globalization processes exclusively from the position of conformism, and for some of the researchers globalization became the "sacred cow", which one may only worship. Critical analysis of the processes associated with globalization is given a hostile reception. In response to criticism of globalization, one can hear the very same argument: "globalization in inevitable!" Such a state of affairs, the very least, causes perplexity. Some of the world development trends been observed over the past years raise serious concerns about the security and welfare of the peoples of the world. One of such trends has been the globalization of shadow economic activities. Methods of fight against the criminal economy been applied in international practice can be grouped into: 1 punitive enforcement (or criminal-legal methods and 2 socio-economic methods. As the results of various research works evidence punitive enforcement methods not supported by socio-economic measures not effective enough. Toughening the control over criminal economic activities in the absence of preventive and corrective actions aiming to neutralize institutional, social and other stimuli facilitating criminalization of economic activities can result in large losses of financial assets in the form of mass capital flight

  20. Shadow Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larissa Mihaylovna Kapitsa

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article reviews some development trends brought about by globalization, particularly, a growing tax evasion and tax avoidance, an expansion of illicit financial flows and the proliferation of a global criminal network. The author draws attention to some new phenomena, particularly, cosmopolitanization of some parts of national elites and a deepening divide between national interests and the private interests of elites as a consequence of financial globalization. Modern mass media, both Russian and foreign, tend to interpret globalization processes exclusively from the position of conformism, and for some of the researchers globalization became the "sacred cow", which one may only worship. Critical analysis of the processes associated with globalization is given a hostile reception. In response to criticism of globalization, one can hear the very same argument: "globalization in inevitable!" Such a state of affairs, the very least, causes perplexity. Some of the world development trends been observed over the past years raise serious concerns about the security and welfare of the peoples of the world. One of such trends has been the globalization of shadow economic activities. Methods of fight against the criminal economy been applied in international practice can be grouped into: 1 punitive enforcement (or criminal-legal methods and 2 socio-economic methods. As the results of various research works evidence punitive enforcement methods not supported by socio-economic measures not effective enough. Toughening the control over criminal economic activities in the absence of preventive and corrective actions aiming to neutralize institutional, social and other stimuli facilitating criminalization of economic activities can result in large losses of financial assets in the form of mass capital flight