WorldWideScience

Sample records for rapid economic change

  1. Rapid land use change after socio-economic disturbances: the collapse of the Soviet Union versus Chernobyl

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hostert, Patrick; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Sieber, Anika [Geography Department, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin (Germany); Prishchepov, Alexander [Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO), Department of Structural Development of Farms and Rural Areas, Theodor-Lieser-Strasse 2, 06120 Halle (Germany); Lambin, Eric F [Earth and Life Institute, Universite catholique de Louvain, place L. Pasteur 3, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Radeloff, Volker C, E-mail: patrick.hostert@geo.hu-berlin.de [Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, Madison, WI 53706-1598 (United States)

    2011-10-15

    Land use change is a principal force and inherent element of global environmental change, threatening biodiversity, natural ecosystems, and their services. However, our ability to anticipate future land use change is severely limited by a lack of understanding of how major socio-economic disturbances (e.g., wars, revolutions, policy changes, and economic crises) affect land use. Here we explored to what extent socio-economic disturbances can shift land use systems onto a different trajectory, and whether this can result in less intensive land use. Our results show that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 caused a major reorganization in land use systems. The effects of this socio-economic disturbance were at least as drastic as those of the nuclear disaster in the Chernobyl region in 1986. While the magnitudes of land abandonment were similar in Ukraine and Belarus in the case of the nuclear disaster (28% and 36% of previously farmed land, respectively), the rates of land abandonment after the collapse of the Soviet Union in Ukraine were twice as high as those in Belarus. This highlights that national policies and institutions play an important role in mediating effects of socio-economic disturbances. The socio-economic disturbance that we studied caused major hardship for local populations, yet also presents opportunities for conservation, as natural ecosystems are recovering on large areas of former farmland. Our results illustrate the potential of socio-economic disturbances to revert land use intensification and the important role institutions and policies play in determining land use systems' resilience against such socio-economic disturbances.

  2. Rapid land use change after socio-economic disturbances: the collapse of the Soviet Union versus Chernobyl

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostert, Patrick; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Prishchepov, Alexander; Sieber, Anika; Lambin, Eric F.; Radeloff, Volker C.

    2011-10-01

    Land use change is a principal force and inherent element of global environmental change, threatening biodiversity, natural ecosystems, and their services. However, our ability to anticipate future land use change is severely limited by a lack of understanding of how major socio-economic disturbances (e.g., wars, revolutions, policy changes, and economic crises) affect land use. Here we explored to what extent socio-economic disturbances can shift land use systems onto a different trajectory, and whether this can result in less intensive land use. Our results show that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 caused a major reorganization in land use systems. The effects of this socio-economic disturbance were at least as drastic as those of the nuclear disaster in the Chernobyl region in 1986. While the magnitudes of land abandonment were similar in Ukraine and Belarus in the case of the nuclear disaster (28% and 36% of previously farmed land, respectively), the rates of land abandonment after the collapse of the Soviet Union in Ukraine were twice as high as those in Belarus. This highlights that national policies and institutions play an important role in mediating effects of socio-economic disturbances. The socio-economic disturbance that we studied caused major hardship for local populations, yet also presents opportunities for conservation, as natural ecosystems are recovering on large areas of former farmland. Our results illustrate the potential of socio-economic disturbances to revert land use intensification and the important role institutions and policies play in determining land use systems' resilience against such socio-economic disturbances.

  3. The nutrition transition in amazonia: rapid economic change and its impact on growth and development in Ribeirinhos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piperata, Barbara A; Spence, Jennifer E; Da-Gloria, Pedro; Hubbe, Mark

    2011-09-01

    The goal of this longitudinal study was to assess the impact of economic change and increased market integration on subsistence strategies, living conditions, growth, and nutritional status of Ribeirinhos living in the rural Amazon, Brazil. Data on weight, height, skinfolds, and circumferences, as well as data on economic strategies and living conditions were collected from 469 individuals in 2002 and 429 in 2009. Of these, 204 individuals were measured on both occasions. Independent and paired t-tests were used to identify changes in nutritional status over time in the larger sample and smaller, longitudinal subsample, respectively. Multiple linear regressions were used to examine the relationship between changes in economic/living conditions and nutritional status in the longitudinal subsample. Results indicate modest improvements in linear growth (HAZ) and among male children the observed increase was related to enrollment in the Brazilian conditional cash transfer program, Bolsa Família (P = 0.03). In terms of short-term measures of nutritional status, we found a significant increase in ZTSF and a reduction in ZUMA in most age/sex groups. Among subadults, there was a negative relationship between ZUMA and access to electricity (P = 0.01) and positive relationship between ZUMA and the sale of the açaí fruit (P = 0.04). Significant changes in weight and BMI (P economic strategies and lifestyle, changes in nutritional status were modest which may be explained by increased food insecurity documented during this early stage of transition. 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  4. Water Quality Changes during Rapid Urbanization in the Shenzhen River Catchment: An Integrated View of Socio-Economic and Infrastructure Development

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    Hua-peng Qin

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Surface water quality deterioration is a serious problem in many rapidly urbanizing catchments in developing countries. There is currently a lack of studies that quantify water quality variation (deterioration or otherwise due to both socio-economic and infrastructure development in a catchment. This paper investigates the causes of water quality changes over the rapid urbanization period of 1985–2009 in the Shenzhen River catchment, China and examines the changes in relation to infrastructure development and socio-economic policies. The results indicate that the water quality deteriorated rapidly during the earlier urbanization stages before gradually improving over recent years, and that rapid increases in domestic discharge were the major causes of water quality deterioration. Although construction of additional wastewater infrastructure can significantly improve water quality, it was unable to dispose all of the wastewater in the catchment. However, it was found that socio-economic measures can significantly improve water quality by decreasing pollutant load per gross regional production (GRP or increasing labor productivity. Our findings suggest that sustainable development during urbanization is possible, provided that: (1 the wastewater infrastructure should be constructed timely and revitalized regularly in line with urbanization, and wastewater treatment facilities should be upgraded to improve their nitrogen and phosphorus removal efficiencies; (2 administrative regulation policies, economic incentives and financial policies should be implemented to encourage industries to prevent or reduce the pollution at the source; (3 the environmental awareness and education level of local population should be increased; (4 planners from various sectors should consult each other and adapt an integrated planning approach for socio-economic and wastewater infrastructure development.

  5. Spatiotemporal changes in both asset value and GDP associated with seismic exposure in China in the context of rapid economic growth from 1990 to 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jidong; Wang, Cailin; He, Xin; Wang, Xu; Li, Ning

    2017-03-01

    Accurate exposure estimation is essential for seismic risk assessment. Recent rapid urbanization and economic growth in China have led to massive spatiotemporal changes in both the asset value and GDP exposed to seismic hazards. Using available GDP data, the asset value dataset produced by Wu et al (2014a) and spatial disaggregation technology, gridded maps of GDP and asset value are overlaid with the latest seismic map to investigate spatiotemporal changes in economic exposure in the most seismically hazardous areas (MSHAs) in China in 1990, 2000 and 2010. We found that 15.4% of China’s asset value and 14.1% of China’s GDP were located in MSHAs in 2010, and the asset value and GDP exposed to MSHAs reached 15.9 trillion CNY and 6.2 trillion CNY, respectively, with average annual rates of increase of 14.4% and 11.3% over the two decades. The evidence of increased exposure provides valuable information regarding whom or what risk managers should give the most attention based on the economic exposure changes in earthquake-prone areas of China. Notably, the North China seismic belt, which is associated with the largest economic exposure to earthquakes and a rapidly increasing rate of economic exposure compared to those in other seismic belts, and the Qinghai-Tibet seismic belt, which has the highest earthquake occurrence, are two seismic belts of interest. A more detailed study is required to determine the relationship between increased economic exposure and earthquake disaster losses combined with hazard level and vulnerability.

  6. Foundations of economic change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cantner, Uwe

    2016-01-01

    This paper employs the Schumpeterian approach to the development of economies in order to identify the core building blocks of a theory of endogenous economic change. Borders and insights are widened by combining concepts and findings from behavioral economics, from evolutionary economics, and from...

  7. Economic Growth of a Rapidly Developing Economy: Theoretical Formulation

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    Oleg Sergeyevich Sukharev

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The subject matter of the article is the description of economic growth. Modern economy is characterized by a high rate of changes. These changes are the limiting parameters of modern development, which requires a modification of the basic models of growth, the substantiation of the expediency and necessity of a rapid development strategy. In a simple mathematical form, the statement of the problem of economic growth in the “green economy” is examined, in which the costs of environmental measures are not considered a priori as hampering economic development (as it is common for a number of modern neoclassical and neo-Keynesian growth models. The methodological basis of the article are the econometric approach and modelling method. The article has a theoretical character. The main hypothesis supposes that the rapid development strategy cannot make an adequate development strategy under certain conditions, but may be acceptable in other its specific conditions. In this sense, the important growth conditions are the availability of resources, the effectiveness of institutions and the current economic structure, the technological effectiveness of economy, as well as the conditions of technological development (“green economy” and the path of such development. In the article, on the theoretical level of analysis, the substantiation of the adequacy of the rapid development strategy for an economic system is given, whose goal is to achieve the standard of living of the countryleader. Based on the assumptions introduced, the period for which the rapid development strategy might be implemented and the economic lag of the country might be reduced from the country-leader is determined. The conditions that ensure the impact of innovations on the rate of economic development are summarized. The introduced range of dependencies and relations can be useful for the elaboration of the theory of innovation development and for the formation of a new

  8. Ecological economics and institutional change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krall, Lisi; Klitgaard, Kent

    2011-02-01

    Ecological economics remains unfinished in its effort to provide a framework for transforming the economy so that it is compatible with biophysical limits. Great strides have been made in valuing natural capital and ecosystem services and recognizing the need to limit the scale of economic activity, but the question of how to effectively transform the economy to limit the scale of economic activity remains unclear. To gain clarity about the institutional changes necessary to limit the scale of economic activity, it is essential that ecological economics understands the limitations of its neoclassical roots and expands its theoretical framework to include how markets are embedded in social and institutional structures. This has long been the domain of institutional economics and heterodox political economy. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

  9. Change the World by Changing Economics

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    Karl Wagner

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available We live in a world of opportunity – the opportunity to use the insight generated through the multiple crises humanity finds itself in to transit into a much more liveable, sustainable and equitable society. A paradigm change seems to be taking place, a movement for change seems to be in the making, but at the same time there is a widespread feeling that things are getting worse instead of better and there is no guarantee that change will lead us into a better future in the next few decades. To effectively guide the direction of change we need to address the root causes of today’s global challenges and take a close look at what drives human society and human beings. In doing so we realize that we are looking at a holographic picture which contains different layers, which are interdependent: Human biology; values and belief systems; the changing narrative underlying the development of human society; economics and governance and the many tools as well as special interests, support and uphold the outdated paradigms. The one element which influences all people nearly every day and is behind just about each and every crisis is the theory and practice of current economics. The article explores the debate on current economics and proposes mechanisms of change.

  10. Changing Identities and Socio Economic Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singla, Rashmi; Fabricius, Anne Sophie; Holm, Anne

    with the countries of origin, combining individualisation with interconnectedness. The results indicate three emergent forms of socioeconomic strategies among South Asian youth in Denmark: 1) individual strategies involving professional, business related investment and direct remittances, 2) awareness of parents......Changing Identities and Socio Economic Strategies: South Asian Diasporic Youth in Scandinavia   Rashmi Singla,  Anne Sophie Fabricius & Anne Holm This paper throws light on the rapid cultural transformations as well as continuity among the South Asian youth in Scandinavia, primarily in Denmark....... Based on two interdisciplinary empirical studies, it investigates some socioeconomic aspects of the South Asian diaspora in Denmark. The first longitudinal study explored young adults’ economic strategies in relation to their country of origin. The first wave investigation was conducted in the mid-1990s...

  11. Rapid economic analysis of northern hardwood stand improvement options

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    William B. Leak

    1980-01-01

    Data and methodology are provided for projecting basal area, diameter, volumes, and values by product for northern hardwood stands, and for determining the rate of return on stand improvement investments. The method is rapid, requires a minimum amount of information, and should prove useful for on-the-ground economic analyses.

  12. Rapid estimation of the economic consequences of global earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, operational since mid 2007, rapidly estimates the most affected locations and the population exposure at different levels of shaking intensities. The PAGER system has significantly improved the way aid agencies determine the scale of response needed in the aftermath of an earthquake. For example, the PAGER exposure estimates provided reasonably accurate assessments of the scale and spatial extent of the damage and losses following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) in China, the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Mw 6.3) in Italy, the 2010 Haiti earthquake (Mw 7.0), and the 2010 Chile earthquake (Mw 8.8). Nevertheless, some engineering and seismological expertise is often required to digest PAGER's exposure estimate and turn it into estimated fatalities and economic losses. This has been the focus of PAGER's most recent development. With the new loss-estimation component of the PAGER system it is now possible to produce rapid estimation of expected fatalities for global earthquakes (Jaiswal and others, 2009). While an estimate of earthquake fatalities is a fundamental indicator of potential human consequences in developing countries (for example, Iran, Pakistan, Haiti, Peru, and many others), economic consequences often drive the responses in much of the developed world (for example, New Zealand, the United States, and Chile), where the improved structural behavior of seismically resistant buildings significantly reduces earthquake casualties. Rapid availability of estimates of both fatalities and economic losses can be a valuable resource. The total time needed to determine the actual scope of an earthquake disaster and to respond effectively varies from country to country. It can take days or sometimes weeks before the damage and consequences of a disaster can be understood both socially and economically. The objective of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system is

  13. Economic Consequences Of Climate Change

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    Szlávik, János; Füle, Miklós

    2009-07-01

    Even though the climate conflict resulting from green houses gases (GHG) emissions was evident by the Nineties and the well-known agreements made, their enforcement is more difficult than that of other environmental agreements. That is because measures to reduce GHG emissions interfere with the heart of the economy and the market: energy (in a broader sense than the energy sector as defined by statistics) and economical growth. Analyzing the environmental policy responses to climate change the conclusion is that GHG emission reduction can only be achieved through intensive environmental policy. While extensive environmental protection complements production horizontally, intensive environmental protection integrates into production and the environment vertically. The latter eliminates the source of the pollution, preventing damage. It utilizes the biochemical processes and self-purification of the natural environment as well as technical development which not only aims to produce state-of-the-art goods, but to make production more environmentally friendly, securing a desired environmental state. While in extensive environmental protection the intervention comes from the outside for creating environmental balance, in intensive environmental protection the system recreates this balance itself. Instead of dealing with the consequences and the polluter pays principle, the emphasis is on prevention. It is important to emphasize that climate strategy decisions have complex effects regarding the aspects of sustainability (economical, social, ecological). Therefore, all decisions are political. At present, and in the near future, market economy decisions have little to do with sustainability values under normal circumstances. Taking social and ecological interests into consideration can only be successful through strategic political aims.

  14. Structural Change, Globalization and Economic Growth in China and India

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    Vittorio Valli

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In their period of rapid economic growth China and India have experienced profound structural transformations. The aim of the paper is to analyze the relation between structural change, the process of globalization and economic growth in the two great Asian countries, using a highly disaggregated dataset for the 1987-2009 period. While China had a longer and more intensive productivity growth than India, the latter had a somewhat more balanced growth. Both countries registered higher within-sectors gains in productivity than between-sectors ones. Our analysis also shows that there exist important feedbacks between structural change, globalization and economic growth over time. When the reallocation of labor is large, it may positively impact on the future rates of economic growth. At the same time, however, it seems that a too rapid economic growth may hinder a smooth reallocation of labor. In both countries, new policies should be designed to favor labor movement across sectors and areas, to reduce the wage-productivity differentials and to integrate the informal sector in formal markets in India, in order to foster structural changes and enhance economic growth. If a too unbalanced economic growth has somewhat limited the extent of structural change, globalization has on the contrary promoted it. High level of export, import and FDI not only has been related to higher rates of economic growth, but also to a deeper reallocation of resources across sectors, modifying the comparative advantage and reorganizing the production.

  15. On climate change and economic growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frankhauser, S.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2005-01-01

    The economic impact of climate change is usually measured as the extent to which the climate of a given period affects social welfare in that period. This static approach ignores the dynamic effects through which climate change may affect economic growth and hence future welfare. In this paper we

  16. eRME - Rapid Maxillary Expansion in the economic way

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    Sonali Mahadevia

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim and Objectives: Rapid Maxillary Expansion constitutes a routine clinical procedure in orthodontics, involving separation of mid-palatine suture which is usually done with help of the Hyrax screw. However, because of its high cost, the use has been limited, especially in institutions. So, the purpose of this study was to construct an economical device which can expand the maxillary arch in growing patients. Materials and Methods: Six patients having constricted maxilla and posterior skeletal crossbite were randomly selected from the Department of Orthodontics. A unique, easy and simple alternative device for expanding the maxillary arch called economic Rapid Maxillary Expander (eRME has been fabricated at about one-tenth the cost of the conventional Hyrax. Pre- and post-treatment effects were statistically tested by using paired t-test at 0.05 level of significance. Results and Conclusion: The study results showed an average expansion in canine, premolar and molar regions of 4.4 mm, 6.8 mm and 9.4 mm, respectively, having significant difference pre-and post-treatment. Thus, it shows that maxillary expansion is efficiently possible with the application of this newly constructed device named eRME. This appliance also acts as a fixed retainer to avoid relapse, hence negating the need for a separate retainer.

  17. Economic Growth and Landscape Change

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    Prato, Tony; Fagre, Dan

    2007-01-01

    Prato and Fagre offer the first systematic, multi-disciplinary assessment of the challenges involved in managing the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem (CCE), an area of the Rocky Mountains that includes northwestern Montana, southwestern Alberta, and southeastern British Columbia. The spectacular landscapes, extensive recreational options, and broad employment opportunities of the CCE have made it one of the fastest growing regions in the United States and Canada, and have lead to a shift in its economic base from extractive resource industries to service-oriented recreation and tourism industries. In the process, however, the amenities and attributes that draw people to this “New West” are under threat. Pastoral scenes are disappearing as agricultural lands and other open spaces are converted to residential uses, biodiversity is endangered by the fragmentation of fish and wildlife habitats, and many areas are experiencing a decline in air and water quality.

  18. Structural modelling of economic growth: Technological changes

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    Sukharev Oleg

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Neoclassical and Keynesian theories of economic growth assume the use of Cobb-Douglas modified functions and other aggregate econometric approaches to growth dynamics modelling. In that case explanations of economic growth are based on the logic of the used mathematical ratios often including the ideas about aggregated values change and factors change a priori. The idea of assessment of factor productivity is the fundamental one among modern theories of economic growth. Nevertheless, structural parameters of economic system, institutions and technological changes are practically not considered within known approaches, though the latter is reflected in the changing parameters of production function. At the same time, on the one hand, the ratio of structural elements determines the future value of the total productivity of the factors and, on the other hand, strongly influences the rate of economic growth and its mode of innovative dynamics. To put structural parameters of economic system into growth models with the possibility of assessment of such modes under conditions of interaction of new and old combinations is an essential step in the development of the theory of economic growth/development. It allows forming stimulation policy of economic growth proceeding from the structural ratios and relations recognized for this economic system. It is most convenient in such models to use logistic functions demonstrating the resource change for old and new combination within the economic system. The result of economy development depends on starting conditions, and on institutional parameters of velocity change of resource borrowing in favour of a new combination and creation of its own resource. Model registration of the resource is carried out through the idea of investments into new and old combinations.

  19. Economic growth and change in southeast Alaska.

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    Rhonda Mazza

    2004-01-01

    This report focuses on economic trends since the 1970s in rural southeast Alaska. These trends are compared with those in the Nation and in nonmetropolitan areas of the country to determine the extent to which the economy in rural southeast Alaska is affected by regional activity and by larger market forces. Many of the economic changes occurring in rural southeast...

  20. Regional Economic Accounting (REAcct). A software tool for rapidly approximating economic impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Vargas, Vanessa N.; Loose, Verne William; Starks, Shirley J.; Ellebracht, Lory A.

    2011-07-01

    This paper describes the Regional Economic Accounting (REAcct) analysis tool that has been in use for the last 5 years to rapidly estimate approximate economic impacts for disruptions due to natural or manmade events. It is based on and derived from the well-known and extensively documented input-output modeling technique initially presented by Leontief and more recently further developed by numerous contributors. REAcct provides county-level economic impact estimates in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment for any area in the United States. The process for using REAcct incorporates geospatial computational tools and site-specific economic data, permitting the identification of geographic impact zones that allow differential magnitude and duration estimates to be specified for regions affected by a simulated or actual event. Using these data as input to REAcct, the number of employees for 39 directly affected economic sectors (including 37 industry production sectors and 2 government sectors) are calculated and aggregated to provide direct impact estimates. Indirect estimates are then calculated using Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II) multipliers. The interdependent relationships between critical infrastructures, industries, and markets are captured by the relationships embedded in the inputoutput modeling structure.

  1. Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lasse Folke

    2013-01-01

    of models in Danish economic policy, where, from the 1970s onwards, executive public servants in this area have exclusively been specialists in model design. To understand changes in economic policy, this paper starts with a discussion of whether the notion of paradigm shift is adequate. It then examines...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept......Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...

  2. Indigenous people's detection of rapid ecological change.

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    Aswani, Shankar; Lauer, Matthew

    2014-06-01

    When sudden catastrophic events occur, it becomes critical for coastal communities to detect and respond to environmental transformations because failure to do so may undermine overall ecosystem resilience and threaten people's livelihoods. We therefore asked how capable of detecting rapid ecological change following massive environmental disruptions local, indigenous people are. We assessed the direction and periodicity of experimental learning of people in the Western Solomon Islands after a tsunami in 2007. We compared the results of marine science surveys with local ecological knowledge of the benthos across 3 affected villages and 3 periods before and after the tsunami. We sought to determine how people recognize biophysical changes in the environment before and after catastrophic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis and whether people have the ability to detect ecological changes over short time scales or need longer time scales to recognize changes. Indigenous people were able to detect changes in the benthos over time. Detection levels differed between marine science surveys and local ecological knowledge sources over time, but overall patterns of statistically significant detection of change were evident for various habitats. Our findings have implications for marine conservation, coastal management policies, and disaster-relief efforts because when people are able to detect ecological changes, this, in turn, affects how they exploit and manage their marine resources. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  3. Institutions, Technological Change and Economic Growth

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    David Corderí Novoa

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Theories of economic growth try to explain variations in per capita income across countries by differences in capital accumulation and productivity. However, many scholars consider that integrating institutions into economic theory and economic history is an essential step in improving explanations of why some societies are richer than others. This paper develops the empirical and theoretical case that differences in institutions are the fundamental cause of differences in technological change (productivity, hence in economic growth. First, I give a definition of institutions and how they influence economic performance, from a New Institutional Economics point of view. Then, I introduce the theoretical framework based on the economics of ideas and endogenous growth models. Finally, I argue that R&D expenditures -a proxy for technological change- will vary across countries depending on some measures of institutional quality. In the end, this paper finds that stronger institutions (measured by an aggregate of institutional quality encourage greater R&D expenditures. At a disaggregate level, the rule of law is positively correlated and the regulatory burden is negatively correlated with R&D expenditures. Human capital level (measured by the tertiary and primary school enrolment rates has also a significant positive impact in R&D expenditures.

  4. Economic Growth, Climate Change, and Obesity.

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    Minos, Dimitrios; Butzlaff, Iris; Demmler, Kathrin Maria; Rischke, Ramona

    2016-12-01

    Human and planetary health as well as economic growth are firmly interlinked and subject to complex interaction effects. In this paper, we provide an overview of interlinkages between economic growth, climate change, and obesity focusing on recent advances in the literature. In addition to empirical findings, we discuss different theoretical frameworks used to conceptualize these complex links and highlight policy options and challenges. We conclude that policies addressing both climate change and obesity simultaneously are particularly promising and often suitable for ensuring sustainable development.

  5. Structural Change and Economic Development in China and India

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    Vittorio Valli

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The comparison of the periods of rapid economic growth in China since 1978 and India since 1992 markedly show different patterns of development and structural change. However, both countries experienced some advantages of "relative economic backwardness" and some aspects of the "fordist model of growth". China had an anticipated and deeper structural change, spurred mainly by economic reforms and the growth of the internal market in the 1980s, and, since the mid-1990s, by a very rapid penetration of its industrial products in the world market. However, a substantial part of China's exports in medium and high tech sectors are due to joint-ventures with foreign multinationals. India had a more balanced structural change and a slower insertion in the world market, although some sectors, such as software, steel, automotive and pharmaceuticals are recently increasing their share in the world markets. Owing to the huge number of micro-enterprises and the great size of the informal sector, India benefited much less than China from the economies of scale and from the third wave of the "fordist model of growth". Both countries, but in particular China, experienced negative externalities of this recent phase of rapid growth, such as higher inequalities, pollution and urban congestion.

  6. The Chinese experience of rapid modernization: sociocultural changes, psychological consequences?

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    Jiahong eSun

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Mainland China has undergone profound changes dating back to the nineteenth century, including a contemporary period of rapid modernization that began in the 1980s. The result has been dramatic social, cultural, and economic shifts impacting the daily lives of Chinese people. In this paper, we explore the psychological implications of sociocultural transformation in China, emphasizing two central themes. First, rising individualism: findings from social and developmental psychology suggest that China’s rapid development has been accompanied by ever-increasing adherence to individualistic values. Second, rising rates of depression: findings from psychiatric epidemiology point to increasing prevalence of depression over this same time period, particularly in rural settings. We argue that links between sociocultural and psychological shifts in China can be usefully studied through a cultural psychology lens, emphasizing the mutual constitution of culture, mind, and brain. In particular, we note that the link between social change, individualism, and rising mental illness deserves careful attention. Our review suggests that shifting values and socialization practices shape emotion norms of concealment and display, with implications for depressive symptom presentation. The challenge comes with interpretation. Increasing prevalence rates of depression may indeed be a general response to the rapidity of sociocultural change, or a specific consequence of rising individualism—but may also result from increasingly ‘Western’ patterns of symptom presentation, or improvements in diagnostic practice. We conclude by considering the challenges posed to standard universal models of psychological phenomena.

  7. The Chinese Experience of Rapid Modernization: Sociocultural Changes, Psychological Consequences?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jiahong; Ryder, Andrew G.

    2016-01-01

    Mainland China has undergone profound changes dating back to the nineteenth century, including a contemporary period of rapid modernization that began in the 1980s. The result has been dramatic social, cultural, and economic shifts impacting the daily lives of Chinese people. In this paper, we explore the psychological implications of sociocultural transformation in China, emphasizing two central themes. First, rising individualism: findings from social and developmental psychology suggest that China’s rapid development has been accompanied by ever-increasing adherence to individualistic values. Second, rising rates of depression: findings from psychiatric epidemiology point to increasing prevalence of depression over this same time period, particularly in rural settings. We argue that links between sociocultural and psychological shifts in China can be usefully studied through a cultural psychology lens, emphasizing the mutual constitution of culture, mind, and brain. In particular, we note that the link between social change, individualism, and rising mental illness deserves careful attention. Our review suggests that shifting values and socialization practices shape emotion norms of concealment and display, with implications for depressive symptom presentation. The challenge comes with interpretation. Increasing prevalence rates of depression may indeed be a general response to the rapidity of sociocultural change, or a specific consequence of rising individualism—but may also result from increasingly ‘Western’ patterns of symptom presentation, or improvements in diagnostic practice. We conclude by considering the challenges posed to standard universal models of psychological phenomena. PMID:27092093

  8. The economics of abrupt climate change.

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    Perrings, Charles

    2003-09-15

    The US National Research Council defines abrupt climate change as a change of state that is sufficiently rapid and sufficiently widespread in its effects that economies are unprepared or incapable of adapting. This may be too restrictive a definition, but abrupt climate change does have implications for the choice between the main response options: mitigation (which reduces the risks of climate change) and adaptation (which reduces the costs of climate change). The paper argues that by (i) increasing the costs of change and the potential growth of consumption, and (ii) reducing the time to change, abrupt climate change favours mitigation over adaptation. Furthermore, because the implications of change are fundamentally uncertain and potentially very high, it favours a precautionary approach in which mitigation buys time for learning. Adaptation-oriented decision tools, such as scenario planning, are inappropriate in these circumstances. Hence learning implies the use of probabilistic models that include socioeconomic feedbacks.

  9. Entrepreneurship, structural change, and economic growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noseleit, Florian

    The ability to adjust to structural change is vital to economic development, and entries can be active participants in this process. While the importance of factor reallocations for growth is widely discussed, the role of entrepreneurs in managing these reallocations is currently not well

  10. Treating worker dissatisfaction during economic change

    CERN Document Server

    Glicken, Morley D

    2013-01-01

    In the current economy, companies are expected to turn on a dime in response to changing market needs to stay vibrant. What that means is that companies are constantly reorganizing. Employees are living in a constant state of change. This dynamic in the workplace has affected worker satisfaction, morale, and burnout. This is the first treatment manual to focus on treating job-related issues, whether it's conflict in the workplace, stress, burnout, performance, and more. Divided into two parts, Part One sets the stage with a discussion of the economic climate and how it impacts businesses, h

  11. The impact of rapid economic growth and globalization on zinc nutrition in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwun, In-Sook; Do, Mi-Sook; Chung, Hae-Rang; Kim, Yang Ha; Beattie, John H

    2009-08-01

    Zn deficiency may be widespread in Asian countries such as South Korea. However, dietary habits have changed in response to rapid economic growth and globalization. Zn nutrition in South Koreans has therefore been assessed during a period (1969-1998) of unprecedented economic growth. Cross-sectional food consumption data from the Korean National Nutrition Survey Reports (KNNSR) of South Korea at four separate time points (1969, 1978, 1988 and 1998) were used to calculate Zn, Ca and phytate intakes using various food composition tables, databases and literature values. Nutrient values in local foods were cited from their analysed values. Average Zn intake was 5.8, 4.8 and 5.3 mg/d for 1969, 1978 and 1988 respectively, increasing to 7.3 mg/d in 1998 (73 % of the Korean Dietary Reference Intake). The phytate:Zn molar ratio decreased from 21 to 8 during the study period. Dietary Zn depletion due to marked decreases in cereal consumption, particularly barley which has a low Zn bioavailability, was counterbalanced by marked increases in the consumption of meat and fish, which are also Zn-rich foods. Reduced phytate consumption coincident with increased Zn intake suggests that Zn bioavailability also improved, particularly by 1998. Although total Zn intake was not greatly affected over the initial period of economic growth in South Korea (1969-1988), Zn contributions from different food sources changed markedly and both Zn intake and potential bioavailability were improved by 1998. The study may have implications for Zn nutrition in other Asian countries currently experiencing rapid economic growth.

  12. Public health in a rapidly changing world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana I. Andreeva

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Several months in 2013 and 2014 have been a hardly predictable time in Ukraine, and the situation is still far from being stable. This made the editorial team of TCPHEE based in Ukraine postpone publishing consecutive issues. However, while the situation still requires practical steps, many aspects including those related to public health require analysis and debate. Thus we invite opinion pieces and studies addressing all different spheres of how public health should function under changing social circumstances. There might be a wide range of such related topics. The most obvious ones are those linked to changing living conditions. Many studies have been undertaken and published with regard to health threats to refugees, people involved in natural or technical disasters (Noji, 2005. Along with environmental health threats, there might be mental health disturbances (World Health Organization, 1992 resulting from long-term strain, losses et cetera. Another important focus is related to changes in health services provision. Crimea, which is a former Ukrainian territory now occupied by the Russian Federation, was among those in Ukraine highly affected with HIV (Dehne, Khodakevich, Hamers, & Schwartlander, 1999. This was responded by several NGOs actively providing harm reduction services to high-risk groups along with methadone substitution therapy to opiate users and antiretroviral medicines to those HIV-infected (Curtis, 2010. However, there are news reports that Russia is going to stop provision of methadone (kommersant.ru, 2014. As opiate substitution programs have been shown an effective approach towards preventing HIV transmission among people who inject drugs (MacArthur et al., 2012, such change in public health policies might affect not only most at risk populations but their partners and population as a whole as well resulting in a rapid spread of HIV. Yet another related topic is that of how health services can be organized at times of

  13. Contribution to economic analysis of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popov Đorđe

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate changes are global both in its causes and its consequences. Each action related to climate changes that has ambitions to be successful must be organized on a global level with full international cooperation and understanding. Those who are wealthier and bearing the greater responsibility for the high level of emissions those should take corresponding proportions in efforts to reduce emissions. There are three basic ways how to solve the economic problem of excessive emissions. The first is the taxation. The second is trade with the emission allowances. The third way is through the establishment of regulations and standards. Only measures, which include the right to sustainable development, can mobilize forces in the world that will lead the humanity, through long-term transition, in the post-fossil era.

  14. Integrated Ocean Management as a Strategy to Meet Rapid Climate Change: The Norwegian Case

    OpenAIRE

    Hoel, Alf Håkon; Olsen, Erik

    2012-01-01

    The prospects of rapid climate change and the potential existence of tipping points in marine ecosystems where nonlinear change may result from them being overstepped, raises the question of strategies for coping with ecosystem change. There is broad agreement that the combined forces of climate change, pollution and increasing economic activities necessitates more comprehensive approaches to oceans management, centering on the concept of ecosystem-based oceans management. This article addres...

  15. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change provides data and information on global and regional land cover change in raster format for...

  16. Rapid climate change: lessons from the recent geological past

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Jonathan; Lowe, John; Wolff, Eric; Srokosz, Meric

    2011-12-01

    Rapid, or abrupt, climate change is regarded as a change in the climate system to a new state following the crossing of a threshold. It generally occurs at a rate exceeding that of the change in the underlying cause. Episodes of rapid climate change abound in the recent geological past (defined here as the interval between the last glacial maximum, dated to approximately 20,000 years ago, and the present). Rapid climate changes are known to have occurred over time periods equal to or even less than a human lifespan: moreover, their effects on the global system are sufficiently large to have had significant societal impacts. The potential for similar events to occur in the future provides an important impetus for investigating the nature and causes of rapid climate change. This paper provides a brief overview of rapid climate change and an introduction to this special issue, which presents results generated by the palaeoclimatic component of the UK Natural Environment Research Council's rapid climate change programme, called RAPID. The papers in the special issue employ palaeoclimatic proxy data-sets obtained from marine, ice core and terrestrial archives to reconstruct rapid climate change during the last glacial cycle, its subsequent termination and the ensuing Holocene interglacial; some papers also report new attempts to match the palaeoclimate data to hypothesised causes through numerical modelling. The results confirm the importance of freshwater forcing in triggering changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and the close links between MOC and rapid climate change. While advancing our understanding of these linkages, the RAPID research has highlighted the need for further research in order to elucidate more specific details of the mechanisms involved.

  17. Quantifying the economic risks of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, Delavane; Moore, Frances

    2017-11-01

    Understanding the value of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions matters for policy decisions and climate risk management, but quantification is challenging because of the complex interactions and uncertainties in the Earth and human systems, as well as normative ethical considerations. Current modelling approaches use damage functions to parameterize a simplified relationship between climate variables, such as temperature change, and economic losses. Here we review and synthesize the limitations of these damage functions and describe how incorporating impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research advances and empirical findings could substantially improve damage modelling and the robustness of social cost of carbon values produced. We discuss the opportunities and challenges associated with integrating these research advances into cost-benefit integrated assessment models, with guidance for future work.

  18. Are rapid changes in brain elasticity possible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, K. J.

    2017-09-01

    Elastography of the brain is a topic of clinical and preclinical research, motivated by the potential for viscoelastic measures of the brain to provide sensitive indicators of pathological processes, and to assist in early diagnosis. To date, studies of the normal brain and of those with confirmed neurological disorders have reported a wide range of shear stiffness and shear wave speeds, even within similar categories. A range of factors including the shear wave frequency, and the age of the individual are thought to have a possible influence. However, it may be that short term dynamics within the brain may have an influence on the measured stiffness. This hypothesis is addressed quantitatively using the framework of the microchannel flow model, which derives the tissue stiffness, complex modulus, and shear wave speed as a function of the vascular and fluid network in combination with the elastic matrix that comprise the brain. Transformation rules are applied so that any changes in the fluid channels or the elastic matrix can be mapped to changes in observed elastic properties on a macroscopic scale. The results are preliminary but demonstrate that measureable, time varying changes in brain stiffness are possible simply by accounting for vasodynamic or electrochemical changes in the state of any region of the brain. The value of this preliminary exploration is to identify possible mechanisms and order-of-magnitude changes that may be testable in vivo by specialized protocols.

  19. Rapidly changing flows in the Earth's core

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Mandea, M.

    2008-01-01

    recently been used to investigate small-scale core flow(3,4), but no advantage has yet been taken of the improved temporal resolution, partly because the filtering effect of the electrically conducting mantle was assumed to mask short-period magnetic variations(5). Here we show that changes in the magnetic...

  20. Forecasted economic change and the self-fulfilling prophecy in economic decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Petropoulos Petalas, D.; Schie, H.T. van; Hendriks Vettehen, P.G.J.

    2017-01-01

    This study addresses the self-fulfilling prophecy effect, in the domain of economic decision-making. We present experimental data in support of the hypothesis that speculative forecasts of economic change can impact individuals' economic decision behavior, prior to any realized changes. In a

  1. Social psychiatry in a rapidly changing world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas K. J. Craig

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Many societies around the world are experiencing a period of unprecedented change in traditional social roles and customs. Globalisation has contributed to materialism and a me-first individualism that heightens awareness of income inequality that itself is one of the most robust markers of unhappiness in society. Ever increasing urbanisation has driven an erosion of large ‘joint’ family arrangements to be replaced by smaller and relatively isolated nuclear families and single parent living. Mass migration has unmasked deep seated fear and prejudice towards the outsider in society. These global changes are fertile ground for the social conditions that have long been known to be risks for mental illness – poverty, poor quality child care, social isolation and the active discrimination and exclusion of the alien, the physically disabled and mentally ill. While there is little we can do to reverse global change, there is much a social psychiatrist can do to mitigate the effect, ensuring his/her voice is added to other calls for reducing discriminatory practice, promoting evidence-based social interventions such as parenting advice and peer support and ensuring that the success of a treatment is measured not just in terms of symptomatic improvement but in whether it results in an outcome that is valued by the patient.

  2. Climate Change Observation Accuracy: Requirements and Economic Value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielicki, Bruce; Cooke, Roger; Golub, Alexander; Baize, Rosemary; Mlynczak, Martin; Lukashin, Constantin; Thome, Kurt; Shea, Yolanda; Kopp, Greg; Pilewskie, Peter; hide

    2016-01-01

    This presentation will summarize a new quantitative approach to determining the required accuracy for climate change observations. Using this metric, most current global satellite observations struggle to meet this accuracy level. CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) is a new satellite mission designed to resolve this challenge is by achieving advances of a factor of 10 for reflected solar spectra and a factor of 3 to 5 for thermal infrared spectra. The CLARREO spectrometers can serve as SI traceable benchmarks for the Global Satellite Intercalibration System (GSICS) and greatly improve the utility of a wide range of LEO and GEO infrared and reflected solar satellite sensors for climate change observations (e.g. CERES, MODIS, VIIIRS, CrIS, IASI, Landsat, etc). A CLARREO Pathfinder mission for flight on the International Space Station is included in the U.S. Presidentâ€"TM"s fiscal year 2016 budget, with launch in 2019 or 2020. Providing more accurate decadal change trends can in turn lead to more rapid narrowing of key climate science uncertainties such as cloud feedback and climate sensitivity. A new study has been carried out to quantify the economic benefits of such an advance and concludes that the economic value is $9 Trillion U.S. dollars. The new value includes the cost of carbon emissions reductions.

  3. New policy challenges on a changing economic landscape | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2011-01-27

    Jan 27, 2011 ... Profile of IDRC's Social and Economic Policy (SEP) program area. The current era of economic globalization has brought high expectations — but also some profound disappointments — to people in the developing world. Rapid growth, particularly on the part of the robust Asian economies of India and ...

  4. Rethinking species’ ability to cope with rapid climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hof, Christian; Levinsky, Irina; Bastos Araujo, Miguel

    2011-01-01

    Ongoing climate change is assumed to be exceptional because of its unprecedented velocity. However, new geophysical research suggests that dramatic climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene occurred extremely rapid, over just a few years. These abrupt climatic changes may have been even faster...... species' ability to cope with climate change, and that lessons must be learned for modelling future impacts of climate change on species....

  5. Lesbians and economic/social change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyman, P

    2001-01-01

    SUMMARY This article discusses the globalisation juggernaut and its impacts on women in general and lesbians in particular. It outlines the inadequacies of the pink dollar g/luppie image of lesbians, and considers what lesbian economics involve. This leads to outlining some political implications for our own communities of globalisation and its individualistic world, internally, in coalitions, and in our dealings with governments. It concludes that economics is an important influence on our communities, for good and ill, and that values and politics should be critical to how we handle economic issues. Continuing the creation of lesbian economy and value systems and influencing those of the straight world are ongoing, difficult tasks.

  6. Climate Change: Socio-Economic impacts and violent conflict

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ierland EC; Klaassen MG; Nierop T; van der Wusten H; PB-NOP; LUW

    1996-01-01

    This report contains a literature study on the socio economic impacts of climate change and the possibilities of violent conflicts enhanced by the greenhouse effect. The socio economic impacts are classified according to the economic sectors in chapter 2 of the study. The impacts on property,

  7. Political regime change, economic liberalization and growth accelerations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong-A-Pin, Richard; De Haan, Jakob

    We examine whether the type of political regime, regime changes, and economic liberalization are related to economic growth accelerations. Our results show that growth accelerations are preceded by economic liberalizations. We also find that growth accelerations are less likely to happen the longer

  8. Ecosystem stewardship: sustainability strategies for a rapidly changing planet

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Stuart Chapin; Stephen R. Carpenter; Gary P. Kofinas; Carl Folke; Nick Abel; William C. Clark; Per Olsson; D. Mark Stafford Smith; Brian Walker; Oran R. Young; Fikret Berkes; Reinette Biggs; J. Morgan Grove; Rosamond L. Naylor; Evelyn Pinkerton; Will Steffen; Frederick J. Swanson

    2010-01-01

    Ecosystem stewardship is an action-oriented framework intended to foster the social-ecological sustainability of a rapidly changing planet. Recent developments identify three strategies that make optimal use of current understanding in an environment of inevitable uncertainty and abrupt change: reducing the magnitude of, and exposure and sensitivity to, known stresses...

  9. Managing in the rapidly changing context of higher education: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Higher education is one of the most rapidly changing sectors of our society. Besides the rate of change in the sector there are also, as seen from the continuous media coverage, a number of universities and technikons in some form of financial or leadership crisis. Over the past years one of the main reasons given for these ...

  10. Management system of organizational and economic changes in health services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Vasilyevna Krivenko

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In the article, the definitions of the concept organizational and economic changes in institution problems of changes in public health service, the purpose and issues of the management system of organizational and economic changes in the field are considered. The combined strategy of development and innovative changes in management is offered. The need of resource-saving technologies implementation is shown. Expediency of use of marketing tools in a management system of organizational and economic changes is considered the mechanism of improvement of planning and pricing in public health service is offered. The author’s model of management of organizational and economic changes in health services supporting achievement of medical, social, economic efficiency in Yekaterinburg's trauma care is presented. Strategy of traumatism prevention is determined on the basis of interdepartmental approach and territorial segmentation of health care market

  11. Changing Perspectives on the Economics of Water

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davide Viaggi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an overview of the special issue on “Water policy, productivity and economic efficiency”. In particular, it includes an overview of key topics on the future of water as a productive factor, in the context of alternative uses and perspective scenarios. The selected papers cover a wide range of relevant economic issues and are presented in three categories: productivity assessment, institutional framework and mechanisms, and governance aspects. The paper concludes by discussing future research challenges in this field.

  12. The Interaction between Higher Education and Labour Market in Changing Economic Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravite, Aija

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores challenges higher education institutions face while ensuring one of the quality assurance criteria--meeting the demands of labour market. The relationship between labour market and higher education institutions becomes even more complicated during the periods of rapid changes in labour market caused by economic collisions. In…

  13. Directed Technical Change and Economic Growth Effects of Environmental Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse-Andersen, Peter Kjær

    2016-01-01

    unambiguously directs research efforts toward pollution abatement technologies and away from production technologies. This directed technical change reduces economic growth and pollution emission growth. Simulation results indicate that even large environmental policy reforms have small economic growth effects....... However, these economic growth effects have relatively large welfare effects which suggest that static models and exogenous growth models leave out an important welfare effect of environmental policy.......A Schumpeterian growth model is developed to investigate how environmental policy affects economic growth when environmental policy also affects the direction of technical change. In contrast to previous models, production and pollution abatement technologies are embodied in separate intermediate...

  14. Rapid Communication: v= 2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Pramana – Journal of Physics; Volume 89; Issue 5. Rapid Communication: Δ υ = 2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3 − states and B ( E 3 ) systematics of Sn isotopes. BHOOMIKA MAHESHWARI SWATI GARG ASHOK KUMAR JAIN. Research Article Volume 89 Issue 5 November 2017 Article ID 75 ...

  15. Rapid Communication: seniority changing transitions in yrast states ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Bhoomika Maheshwari

    2017-10-26

    Oct 26, 2017 ... Rapid Communication: v = 2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3− states and B(E3) systematics of Sn isotopes. BHOOMIKA MAHESHWARI1,∗. , SWATI GARG2 and ASHOK KUMAR JAIN2. 1Department of Physics, Banasthali University, Banasthali 304 022, India. 2Department of Physics, IIT Roorkee, ...

  16. Strengthening Economic Skills and Climate Change Adaptive ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    It builds on the results obtained from the project, Strengthening the Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change in Rural Bénin (104142). ... un développement intégré durable (IDID), to enhance the adaptive capacity of local communities in order to mitigate the negative effects of climate change on food security and rural poverty.

  17. Dental usage under changing economic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manski, Richard J; Moeller, John F; Chen, Haiyan; Schimmel, Jody; St Clair, Patricia A; Pepper, John V

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to examine the relationship between changes in household finances (wealth and income) and changes in dental utilization at the onset of the recent recession in a population of older Americans. Data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) were analyzed for U.S. individuals aged 51 years and older during the 2006 and 2008 waves of the HRS. We estimated logistic models of (a) starting and (b) stopping dental use between 2006 and 2008 survey periods as a function of changes in household wealth and income, controlling for other potentially confounding covariates. We found that only when household wealth falls by 50 percent or more were older adults less likely to seek dental care. Changes in household income and other changes in household wealth were not associated with changes in dental utilization among this population. Older Americans' dental care utilization appeared to be fairly resilient to changes in household finances; only when wealth fell by 50 percent or more did individuals decrease dental use. This finding might extend to other health-care services that are preventive, routine, and relatively inexpensive. © 2012 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

  18. Geoengineering and the Risk of Rapid Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, A. J.; Matthews, D.

    2008-12-01

    Many scientists have proposed that geoengineering could be used to artificially cool the planet as a means of reducing CO2-induced climate warming. However, several recent studies have shown some of the potential risks of geoengineering, including negative impacts on stratospheric ozone, the hydrologic cycle and the possibility of rapid climate change in the case of abrupt failure, or rapid decommissioning of geoengineering technology. In this study, we have emulated a geoengineering scenario in the MAGICC climate model, by counteracting the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases. We have used a hypothetical scenario of business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions, in which geoengineering is implemented at the year 2020, and is removed abruptly after 40 years. By varying the climate sensitivity of the MAGICC model, and using previously published estimates of climate sensitivity likelihoods, we are able to derive a probabilistic prediction of the rate of temperature change following the removal of geoengineering. In a simulation without geoengineering (considering only the A1B AIM emissions scenario) the maximum annual rate of temperature change (in the highest climate sensitivity simulation) was 0.5° C per decade. In the geoengineering simulations the maximum annual rate of temperature change, occurring in the year after geoengineering was stopped, varied from 0.22° C per decade for a climate sensitivity of 0.5° C to nearly 8° C per decade for a climate sensitivity of 10° C. The most likely maximum rate of change (corresponding to a climate sensitivity of 2.5° C) was just over 5° C per decade. There is a 99.8 percent probability that the rate of temperature change following the stoppage of geoengineering in this scenario would exceed 3° C per decade. This risk of rapid climate change associated with the use of planetary-scale geoengineering is highly relevant to discussion of climate policies aimed at avoiding "dangerous anthropogenic interference" in the

  19. Deindustrialisation, structural change and sustainable economic growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tregenna, F.

    2015-01-01

    This paper reviews the literature and empirical evidence on deindustrialisation, with a focus on premature deindustrialisation. Structural change and industrialisation have long been considered important for developing countries to 'catch up'. However, there has been widespread deindustrialisation

  20. Education in Relation to Social and Economic Change in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldblatt, Phyllis K.

    Numerous factors of the education process were analyzed statistically in relation to variables relating to social and economic change factors during the period 1930-1960 in Mexico. Major findings included the following: (1) from 1940 to 1960 general economic and social conditions became more favorable, but post-primary schooling of adults did not…

  1. Major rapid weight loss induces changes in cardiac repolarization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vedel-Larsen, Esben; Iepsen, Eva Pers Winning; Lundgren, Julie

    2016-01-01

    analysis has been suggested as a more sensitive method to identify changes in cardiac repolarization. We examined the effect of a major and rapid weight loss on T-wave morphology. METHODS AND RESULTS: Twenty-six individuals had electrocardiograms (ECG) taken before and after eight weeks of weight loss...... intervention along with plasma measurements of fasting glucose, HbA1c, and potassium. For assessment of cardiac repolarization changes, T-wave Morphology Combination Score (MCS) and ECG intervals: RR, PR, QT, QTcF (Fridericia-corrected QT-interval), and QRS duration were derived. The participants lost......A1c (pMonitoring of MCS during calorie restriction makes it possible to detect repolarization changes with higher discriminative power than the QT-interval during major rapid weight...

  2. Costs of climate change: Economic value of Yakima River salmon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, D.M.; Shankle, S.A.; Scott, M.J.; Neitzel, D.A.; Chatters, J.C.

    1992-07-01

    This work resulted from a continuing multidisciplinary analysis of species preservation and global change. The paper explores the economic cost of a potential regional warming as it affects one Pacific Northwest natural resource, the spring chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshcawytscha). Climate change and planned habitat improvements impact the production and economic value of soling chinook salmon of the Yakima River tributary of the Columbia River in eastern Washington. The paper presents a derivation of the total economic value of a chinook salmon, which includes the summation of the existence, commercial, recreational, and capital values of the fish. When currently available commercial, recreational, existence, and capital values for chinook salmon were applied to estimated population changes, the estimated change in the economic value per fish associated with reduction of one fish run proved significant.

  3. Technological Change and Uneven Economic Development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Petralia, S.G.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/369408071

    2017-01-01

    Broadly speaking, this dissertation studied how technological change operates to determine the fortune of places. Thus linking the global urgency to understand the current level of disparities in terms of wealth and income with the idea that these disparities are, to a large extent, determined by

  4. The Economic Costs of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn; Thurlow, James

    2015-01-01

    by rising sea levels and cyclone strikes. Overall, climate change is likely to reduce national income by between one and two percent by 2050 (relative to a historical baseline). Damages double under more extreme projections. Our findings suggest that there are net benefits from selected pre-emptive actions...

  5. Integrated ocean management as a strategy to meet rapid climate change: the Norwegian case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoel, Alf Håkon; Olsen, Erik

    2012-02-01

    The prospects of rapid climate change and the potential existence of tipping points in marine ecosystems where nonlinear change may result from them being overstepped, raises the question of strategies for coping with ecosystem change. There is broad agreement that the combined forces of climate change, pollution and increasing economic activities necessitates more comprehensive approaches to oceans management, centering on the concept of ecosystem-based oceans management. This article addresses the Norwegian experience in introducing integrated, ecosystem-based oceans management, emphasizing how climate change, seen as a major long-term driver of change in ecosystems, is addressed in management plans. Understanding the direct effects of climate variability and change on ecosystems and indirect effects on human activities is essential for adaptive planning to be useful in the long-term management of the marine environment.

  6. Economic Development and Food Demand Changes: Production and Management Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Rask, Norman; Rask, Kolleen

    2005-01-01

    Per capita food consumption and production changes during economic development are analyzed using a resource-based cereal equivalent measure. Diet up-grades to livestock products during economic development contribute to an increase in per capita food resource use by a factor of five or more. Food consumption changes are generally consistent across countries and are only marginally affected by a country’s food production resource base (land). Food consumption increases tend to exceed food pro...

  7. Rapid climate change and society: assessing responses and thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemeyer, Simon; Petts, Judith; Hobson, Kersty

    2005-12-01

    Assessing the social risks associated with climate change requires an understanding of how humans will respond because it affects how well societies will adapt. In the case of rapid or dangerous climate change, of particular interest is the potential for these responses to cross thresholds beyond which they become maladaptive. To explore the possibility of such thresholds, a series of climate change scenarios were presented to U.K. participants whose subjective responses were recorded via interviews and surveyed using Q methodology. The results indicate an initially adaptive response to climate warming followed by a shift to maladaptation as the magnitude of change increases. Beyond this threshold, trust in collective action and institutions was diminished, negatively impacting adaptive capacity. Climate cooling invoked a qualitatively different response, although this may be a product of individuals being primed for warming because it has dominated public discourse. The climate change scenarios used in this research are severe by climatological standards. In reality, the observed responses might occur at a lower rate of change. Whatever the case, analysis of subjectivity has revealed potential for maladaptive human responses, constituting a dangerous or rapid climate threshold within the social sphere.

  8. Birth weight and delivery practice in a Vietnamese rural district during 12 year of rapid economic development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Huong Thu; Eriksson, Bo; Tran, Toan Khanh; Nguyen, Chuc Thi Kim; Ascher, Henry

    2013-02-19

    Since the Doi Moi reform 1986 economic conditions in Vietnam have changed significantly and positive health and health care developments have been observed. International experience shows that improved economic conditions in a country can reduce the risk of perinatal mortality, decrease the risk of low birth weight and increase the mean birth weight in newborns. The Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) FilaBavi in Bavi district outside Hanoi city has been operational since 1999. An open cohort of more than 12,000 households (52,000 persons) has been followed primarily with respect to demography, economy and education. The aim of this research is to study trends in birth weight as well as birth and delivery practices over the time period 1999-2010 in FilaBavi in relation to the social and economic development. Information about birth weight, sex, place and method of delivery, mother's age and education as well as household economy of 10,114 children, born from 1999 to 2010, was obtained from the routine data collection in the HDSS. Over the study period the mean birth weight remained at the same level, about 3,100 g, in spite of increased economic resources and technology development. At the individual child level we found associations between birth weight and household economy as well as the education of the mother. Hospital delivery increased from about 35% to 65% and the use of Caesarian section increased from 2.6% to 10.1%. During the twelve years studied, household income as well as the use of modern technology increased rapidly. In spite of that, the mean and variation of birth weight did not change systematically. It is suggested that increasing gaps in economic conditions and misallocation of resources, possibly to overuse of technology, are partly responsible.

  9. Economic analysis of rapid multiplex polymerase chain reaction testing for meningitis/encephalitis in pediatric patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duff, Steve; Hasbun, Rodrigo; Ginocchio, Christine C; Balada-Llasat, Joan-Miquel; Zimmer, Louise; Bozzette, Samuel A

    2018-01-10

    We assessed the possible economic impact of a rapid test in pediatric patients with suspected community-acquired meningitis/encephalitis. Modeling simulated diagnosis, clinical decisions, resource use/costs of standard of care (SOC) and two cerebrospinal fluid testing strategies using FilmArray ® (FA), a US FDA-cleared system that provides results in approximately 1 h. Pathogens detected by FA caused approximately 75% of cases, 97% of which would be accurately diagnosed with FA.  Mean cost/case ranged from $17,599 to $22,025.  Syndromic testing is less expensive than SOC. Testing all suspected cases yielded greater savings ($3481/case) than testing only those with abnormal cerebrospinal fluid ($2157/case). Greater economic benefits are achievable with syndromic testing of all cases, rather than SOC or targeted syndromic testing.

  10. Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ciscar, J.C.; Iglesias, A.; Feyen, L.; Szabo, L.; Regemorter, van D.; Amelung, B.; Nicholls, R.; Watkiss, P.; Christensen, O.B.; Dankers, R.; Garrote, L.; Goodess, C.M.; Hunt, A.; Moreno, A.; Richards, J.; Soria, A.

    2011-01-01

    Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to

  11. Economics and management of climate change: risks, mitigation and adaptation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Antes, Ralf; Hansjürgens, Bernd

    2008-01-01

    ... climate change poses risks to societies and companies, nor about adequate strategies to cope with these risks. Bringing together scholars from environmental economics, political science, and business management, this book describes, analyses and evaluates climate change risks and responses of societies and companies. The book c...

  12. Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nelson, G.C.; Valin, H.; Sands, R.D.; Havlik, P.; Ahammad, H.; Deryng, D.; Elliott, J.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Heyhoe, E.; Kyle, P.; Lampe, von M.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Croz, d' D.M.; Meijl, van H.; Mensbrugghe, van der D.; Muller, C.; Popp, A.; Robertson, R.; Robinson, S.; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.A.; Willenbockel, D.

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and

  13. Rhetorical Scarcity: Spatial and Economic Inflections on Genre Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Applegarth, Risa

    2012-01-01

    This study examines how changes in a key scientific genre supported anthropology's early twentieth-century bid for scientific status. Combining spatial theories of genre with inflections from the register of economics, I develop the concept of "rhetorical scarcity" to characterize this genre change not as evolution but as manipulation that…

  14. An economical and combined method for rapid and efficient isolation of fungal DNA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lech, T; Syguła-Cholewinska, J; Szostak-Kot, J

    2014-12-18

    DNA isolation is a crucial step of conducting genetic studies in any organism. However, this process is quite difficult when studying fungi because of the need to damage the fungal cell walls of specific structures. In this study, we developed a method for the rapid and efficient isolation of fungal DNA based on simultaneous mechanical and enzymatic cell wall degradation. There are several typical modifications of the standard phenol-chloroform DNA extraction method. This method can be modified to degrade the fungal cell wall. The first step of the presented DNA extraction included manual homogenization in modified lysis buffer. Next, enzymatic digestion using 2 enzymes was conducted, including lyticase and proteinase K. To carefully select the most favorable conditions, we developed an economical, rapid, and reliable method for fungal DNA extraction that ensures both high efficiency and proper purity, which are essential for further analyses.

  15. Rapid and economical data acquisition in ultrafast frequency-resolved spectroscopy using choppers and a microcontroller.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Liang; Monahan, Daniele M; Fleming, Graham

    2016-08-08

    Spectrometers and cameras are used in ultrafast spectroscopy to achieve high resolution in both time and frequency domains. Frequency-resolved signals from the camera pixels cannot be processed by common lock-in amplifiers, which have only a limited number of input channels. Here we demonstrate a rapid and economical method that achieves the function of a lock-in amplifier using mechanical choppers and a programmable microcontroller. We demonstrate the method's effectiveness by performing a frequency-resolved pump-probe measurement on the dye Nile Blue in solution.

  16. ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF MASS-MEDIA AND THE CHANGES GENERATED BY THE ECONOMIC CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TRAIAN ALEXANDRU NASTASE

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we intend to describe the economic implications of mass-media in correlation with the recent socio-economic changes generated by the economic crisis. We take into consideration the dual market on which mass-media evolves: the mass-media products market, and the advertising market, keeping in mind that the behavior of a mass-media institution on one market, can have direct implication on the other market. We analyze the relation between mass-media and the public (audience, the cost for creating mass-media products, the ways in which mass-media reduces costs and the ways of increasing their profits. As mass-media must always adapt to the social changes and to the public, we take our analysis further and we describe how the recent economic changes influenced the mass-media consumption trends and mass-media profits on all the main communication channels: TV, radio, outdoor, internet, newspapers/magazines. This analysis is performed at both a global and a local level, for Romania. In the end we predict how other key changes may affect the economic model approach of the mass-media institutions on short and middle terms.

  17. Fertility in Alberta in a Context of Rapid Economic Growth, 1997-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Trovato

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Historically, birth rates in Alberta have followed closely the trajectory of change experienced by the other Canadian provinces. Its total fertility rate fell during the low point of the 1930s; it increased during the post-War baby boom in the 1950s and sixties, and thereafter fell to subreplacement levels beginning in the mid 1970s. In recent years, especially since the early 2000s, the birth rate in Alberta has unexpectedly increased, such that by 2007, it had reached 1.90 children per woman - not far from the 2.1 level needed for generational replacement in the long term. During this same period both national and provincial fertility rates fluctuated at levels below those of Alberta (except Saskatchewan and Manitoba, whose rates have been higher. In this study, I examine the historical pattern of fertility change in Alberta, noting similarities and differences with the other provinces. I then look at the association of selected macro level factors (marriage, unemployment, wages, female labour force participation with change in total and parity-specific birth rates between 1997 and 2007, a period of unprecedented economic growth in Alberta. The statistical results show that although marriage is not significantly correlated with change in fertility rates, male and female wages and female labour force participation all show associations consistent with a procyclical interpretation of fertility change - that is, periods of economic growth are conducive to fertility increase whereas bad economic times are associated with reduced fertility.

  18. Fertility in Alberta in a Context of Rapid Economic Growth, 1997-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Trovato

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Historically, birth rates in Alberta have followed closely the trajectory of change experienced by the other Canadian provinces. Its total fertility rate fell during the low point of the 1930s; it increased during the post-War baby boom in the 1950s and sixties, and thereafter fell to sub-replacement levels beginning in the mid 1970s. In recent years, especially since the early 2000s, the birth rate in Alberta has unexpectedly increased, such that by 2007, it had reached 1.90 children per woman---not far from the 2.1 level needed for generational replacement in the long term. During this same period both national and provincial fertility rates fluctuated at levels below those of Alberta (except Saskatchewan and Manitoba, whose rates have been higher. In this study, I examine the historical pattern of fertility change in Alberta, noting similarities and differences with the other provinces. I then look at the association of selected macro level factors (marriage, unemployment, wages, female labour force participation with change in total and parity-specific birth rates between 1997 and 2007, a period of unprecedented economic growth in Alberta. The statistical results show that although marriage is not significantly correlated with change in fertility rates, male and female wages and female labour force participation all show associations consistent with a procyclical interpretation of fertility change --- that is, periods of economic growth are conducive to fertility increase whereas bad economic times lead to reduced fertility.

  19. Changes in VAT rates during the economic crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Široký

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available To solve the current economical crisis, there are used various tools of economic policy. Some of them are changes in taxes, particularly changes in the value added tax due to its importance.Value added tax is the most harmonized tax in the single internal market of the European Communities. Although community law defines the basic legal constraints of VAT rules in individual countries, the Council Directive 2006/112/EC on the common system of value added tax, as amended, leaves some areas open for the Member States. One of the main characteristics of VAT is its tax rates which are – while maintaining specified minimal borders – in competency of Member States.Paper illustrates and evaluates the changes in tax rates of individual Member States during the economic crisis and points to their context and consequences.

  20. Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Gerald C; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D; Havlík, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, Erwin; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-03-04

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

  1. Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

  2. RAPID CHANGES IN SOCIETY, TECHNOLOGY ,ECONOMY AND PUBLIC SERVICE INSTITUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tirthendu Bagchi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Current paper has the purpose to analyze the statement by Drucker (1985 that rapid changes in today’s society, technology, and economy in general are simultaneously a great threat to public-service institutions and even greater opportunity. The statement by Drucker will be analyzed  particularly with context of post offices that what are they going through these days or have gone through. Finally, some recommendations will be made for USPS based on the findings of the analysis..

  3. An Economic Analysis of a Change in an Excise Tax

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, John M.; Blanchard, Kelly Hunt; Umbeck, John R.

    2004-01-01

    The authors present an example of the effect a change in the excise tax can have on retail gasoline prices. The findings provide support for standard economic theory, as well as provide a vehicle for illustrating some of the subtleties of the analysis, including the implicit assumptions regarding the implications for the buying and selling prices…

  4. Economic analysis of the effects of climate change on agricultural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    . The results revealed that there has been an upward trend in Agricultural output over the years, and that the past level of changes in agricultural output has positive and significant effects on the present level of its economic performance. Also ...

  5. The Economics of Change: Associate Degree Education Today and Tomorrow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Elsa L.

    1987-01-01

    The economics of change affects three aspects of community colleges: (1) human resources, (2) physical resources, and (3) fiscal resources. Nursing educators in community colleges must prepare to defend the value of the associate degree in nursing in a future of lessened resources. (CH)

  6. Socio-economic data for global environmental change research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Otto, Ilona; Biewald, Anne; Coumou, Dim

    2015-01-01

    Subnational socio-economic datasets are required if we are to assess the impacts of global environmental changes and to improve adaptation responses. Institutional and community efforts should concentrate on standardization of data collection methodologies, free public access, and geo-referencing....

  7. Revisiting the economics of climate change : The role of geoengineering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moreno-Cruz, Juan B.; Smulders, Sjak

    Technically simple measures to directly reduce mean global temperatures could be available in the near future. We introduce “geoengineering” into a simple analytical model of climate change. We model the technical and economic characteristics of geoengineering in line with the recent literature from

  8. The impact of economic recession on climate change: eight trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Obani, P.C.; Gupta, J.

    2016-01-01

    In the context of deadlocked climate change negotiations, and the expectation that legally binding targets may only set in as early as 2020, this paper addresses the question of whether the current economic recession in major economies in the North can help us buy time by reducing the emissions of

  9. Economics of Energy and Climate Change: Origins, Developments and Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Fouquet, Roger

    2012-01-01

    27 p. This paper briefly highlights some of the most influential ideas in the literature on the economics of energy and (energy-related) climate change. This paper will use bibliometric evidence to examine the trends in related research over the last forty years, and analyse the explosion in energy and climate change research in the last ten years. It will also, more controversially, consider the validity of the hypothesised rise in original ideas in the literature (during the 1990s) and t...

  10. Economic development and coastal ecosystem change in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Qiang; Bertness, Mark D.; Bruno, John F.; Li, Bo; Chen, Guoqian; Coverdale, Tyler C.; Altieri, Andrew H.; Bai, Junhong; Sun, Tao; Pennings, Steven C.; Liu, Jianguo; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Cui, Baoshan

    2014-01-01

    Despite their value, coastal ecosystems are globally threatened by anthropogenic impacts, yet how these impacts are driven by economic development is not well understood. We compiled a multifaceted dataset to quantify coastal trends and examine the role of economic growth in China's coastal degradation since the 1950s. Although China's coastal population growth did not change following the 1978 economic reforms, its coastal economy increased by orders of magnitude. All 15 coastal human impacts examined increased over time, especially after the reforms. Econometric analysis revealed positive relationships between most impacts and GDP across temporal and spatial scales, often lacking dropping thresholds. These relationships generally held when influences of population growth were addressed by analyzing per capita impacts, and when population density was included as explanatory variables. Historical trends in physical and biotic indicators showed that China's coastal ecosystems changed little or slowly between the 1950s and 1978, but have degraded at accelerated rates since 1978. Thus economic growth has been the cause of accelerating human damage to China's coastal ecosystems. China's GDP per capita remains very low. Without strict conservation efforts, continuing economic growth will further degrade China's coastal ecosystems. PMID:25104138

  11. Economic development and coastal ecosystem change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Qiang; Bertness, Mark D; Bruno, John F; Li, Bo; Chen, Guoqian; Coverdale, Tyler C; Altieri, Andrew H; Bai, Junhong; Sun, Tao; Pennings, Steven C; Liu, Jianguo; Ehrlich, Paul R; Cui, Baoshan

    2014-08-08

    Despite their value, coastal ecosystems are globally threatened by anthropogenic impacts, yet how these impacts are driven by economic development is not well understood. We compiled a multifaceted dataset to quantify coastal trends and examine the role of economic growth in China's coastal degradation since the 1950s. Although China's coastal population growth did not change following the 1978 economic reforms, its coastal economy increased by orders of magnitude. All 15 coastal human impacts examined increased over time, especially after the reforms. Econometric analysis revealed positive relationships between most impacts and GDP across temporal and spatial scales, often lacking dropping thresholds. These relationships generally held when influences of population growth were addressed by analyzing per capita impacts, and when population density was included as explanatory variables. Historical trends in physical and biotic indicators showed that China's coastal ecosystems changed little or slowly between the 1950s and 1978, but have degraded at accelerated rates since 1978. Thus economic growth has been the cause of accelerating human damage to China's coastal ecosystems. China's GDP per capita remains very low. Without strict conservation efforts, continuing economic growth will further degrade China's coastal ecosystems.

  12. Managing marine disease emergencies in an era of rapid change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groner, Maya L; Maynard, Jeffrey; Breyta, Rachel; Carnegie, Ryan B; Dobson, Andy; Friedman, Carolyn S; Froelich, Brett; Garren, Melissa; Gulland, Frances M D; Heron, Scott F; Noble, Rachel T; Revie, Crawford W; Shields, Jeffrey D; Vanderstichel, Raphaël; Weil, Ernesto; Wyllie-Echeverria, Sandy; Harvell, C Drew

    2016-03-05

    Infectious marine diseases can decimate populations and are increasing among some taxa due to global change and our increasing reliance on marine environments. Marine diseases become emergencies when significant ecological, economic or social impacts occur. We can prepare for and manage these emergencies through improved surveillance, and the development and iterative refinement of approaches to mitigate disease and its impacts. Improving surveillance requires fast, accurate diagnoses, forecasting disease risk and real-time monitoring of disease-promoting environmental conditions. Diversifying impact mitigation involves increasing host resilience to disease, reducing pathogen abundance and managing environmental factors that facilitate disease. Disease surveillance and mitigation can be adaptive if informed by research advances and catalysed by communication among observers, researchers and decision-makers using information-sharing platforms. Recent increases in the awareness of the threats posed by marine diseases may lead to policy frameworks that facilitate the responses and management that marine disease emergencies require. © 2016 The Author(s).

  13. A rapid and economic in-house DNA purification method using glass syringe filters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun-Cheol Kim

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Purity, yield, speed and cost are important considerations in plasmid purification, but it is difficult to achieve all of these at the same time. Currently, there are many protocols and kits for DNA purification, however none maximize all four considerations. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We now describe a fast, efficient and economic in-house protocol for plasmid preparation using glass syringe filters. Plasmid yield and quality as determined by enzyme digestion and transfection efficiency were equivalent to the expensive commercial kits. Importantly, the time required for purification was much less than that required using a commercial kit. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This method provides DNA yield and quality similar to that obtained with commercial kits, but is more rapid and less costly.

  14. Rapid detection of economic adulterants in fresh milk by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abernethy, Grant; Higgs, Kerianne

    2013-05-03

    A method to aid in the detection of the economically driven adulteration of fresh milk with a range of small, nitrogen containing compounds, including melamine, ammeline, ammelide, cyanuric acid, allantoin, thiourea, urea, biuret, triuret, semicarbazide, aminotriazine, 3- and 4-aminotriazole, cyanamide, dicyandiamide, guanidine, choline, hydroxyproline, nitrate, and a range of amino acids, has been developed. (15)N2-Urea is used as an internal standard. The adulteration of milk with exogenous urea has previously been difficult to detect because of the variation in the naturally occurring levels of urea in milk. However, by monitoring the contaminants biuret and triuret, which comprise up to 1% of synthetic urea, the adulteration of milk with urea-based fertilizer can be detected. We estimate that to be economically viable, adulteration of the order of 90-4000ppm of the above adulterants would need to be added to fresh milk. For most of the compounds, an arbitrary detection threshold of 2ppm is therefore more than sufficient. For biuret, a lower detection threshold, better than 0.5ppm, is desirable and the sensitivity for biuret and triuret can be improved by the post-column addition of lithium to create lithium adducts under electrospray ionisation. Sample handling involves a two-step solvent precipitation method that is deployed in a 96-well plate format, and the hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography uses a rapid gradient (1.2min). Three separate injections, to detect the positively charged compounds, the negatively charged compounds and amino acids and finally the lithium adducts, are used. This rapid and qualitative survey method may be deployed as a second tier screening method to quickly reduce sample numbers indicated as irregular by an FTIR based screening system, and to direct analysis to appropriate quantification methods. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Rapid treatment-induced brain changes in pediatric CRPS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erpelding, Nathalie; Simons, Laura; Lebel, Alyssa; Serrano, Paul; Pielech, Melissa; Prabhu, Sanjay; Becerra, Lino; Borsook, David

    2016-03-01

    To date, brain structure and function changes in children with complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) as a result of disease and treatment remain unknown. Here, we investigated (a) gray matter (GM) differences between patients with CRPS and healthy controls and (b) GM and functional connectivity (FC) changes in patients following intensive interdisciplinary psychophysical pain treatment. Twenty-three patients (13 females, 9 males; average age ± SD = 13.3 ± 2.5 years) and 21 healthy sex- and age-matched controls underwent magnetic resonance imaging. Compared to controls, patients had reduced GM in the primary motor cortex, premotor cortex, supplementary motor area, midcingulate cortex, orbitofrontal cortex, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC), posterior cingulate cortex, precuneus, basal ganglia, thalamus, and hippocampus. Following treatment, patients had increased GM in the dlPFC, thalamus, basal ganglia, amygdala, and hippocampus, and enhanced FC between the dlPFC and the periaqueductal gray, two regions involved in descending pain modulation. Accordingly, our results provide novel evidence for GM abnormalities in sensory, motor, emotional, cognitive, and pain modulatory regions in children with CRPS. Furthermore, this is the first study to demonstrate rapid treatment-induced GM and FC changes in areas implicated in sensation, emotion, cognition, and pain modulation.

  16. Rapid Treatment-Induced Brain Changes in Pediatric CRPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erpelding, Nathalie; Simons, Laura; Lebel, Alyssa; Serrano, Paul; Pielech, Melissa; Prabhu, Sanjay; Becerra, Lino; Borsook, David

    2014-01-01

    To date, brain structure and function changes in children with complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) as a result of disease and treatment remain unknown. Here, we investigated (a) gray matter (GM) differences between patients with CRPS and healthy controls and (b) GM and functional connectivity (FC) changes in patients following intensive interdisciplinary psychophysical pain treatment. Twenty-three patients (13 females, 9 males; average age ± SD = 13.3 ± 2.5 years) and 21 healthy sex-and age-matched controls underwent magnetic resonance imaging. Compared to controls, patients had reduced GM in the primary motor cortex, premotor cortex, supplementary motor area, midcingulate cortex, orbitofrontal cortex, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC), posterior cingulate cortex, precuneus, basal ganglia, thalamus, and hippocampus. Following treatment, patients had increased GM in the dlPFC, thalamus, basal ganglia, amygdala, and hippocampus, and enhanced FC between the dlPFC and the periaqueductal gray (PAG), two regions involved in descending pain modulation. Accordingly, our results provide novel evidence for GM abnormalities in sensory, motor, emotional, cognitive, and pain modulatory regions in children with CRPS. Furthermore, this is the first study to demonstrate rapid treatment-induced GM and FC changes in areas implicated in sensation, emotion, cognition, and pain modulation. PMID:25515312

  17. Mobile work: Ergonomics in a rapidly changing work environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honan, Meg

    2015-01-01

    Places of work have been completely transformed by innovations in mobile work tools and ever-present access to internet data. This article characterizes use patterns and provides preliminary considerations for productive and comfortable use of common mobile devices. Two surveys described trends in mobile work. In the first, ergonomics professionals who oversee programs reported common mobile devices, their users and what data is accessed. The second, an end user survey, explored common activities performed on mobile devices, duration of use and locations where mobile work is common. The survey results provide a baseline data point for the status of mobile work in early 2014. Research indicates that additional risks have been introduced to the neck, thumbs and hands when using mobile devices. Possible trends regarding device use and work locations emerge. Intervention studies provide some direction for the practitioner. Practical strategies are outlined to reduce exposure intensity and duration. Contemporary mobile work presents tremendous change and opportunity for ergonomists and researchers to keep pace with fitting the changing models of work to the person. Continued research is needed on current mobile device use patterns to better understand ergonomic risk exposure in this rapidly changing realm.

  18. Effects of rapid changes in temperature on two estuarine crustaceans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burton, D.T.; Capizzi, T.P.; Margrey, S.L.; Wakefield, W.W.

    1981-01-01

    Weight specific oxygen consumption (Q/sub O/sub 2// patterns of the amphipod, Gammarus sp. (acclimated to 5/sup 0/, 15/sup 0/ and 25/sup 0/ C) and of juvenile blue crabs, Callinectes sapidus (15/sup 0/ and 25/sup 0/ C) were used to evaluate the potential effect of exposure to rapid temperature changes simulating once-through power plant pumped entrainment. Amphipods at all acclimation temperatures and blue crabs at 15/sup 0/ C responded to the temperature changes by increasing Q/sub O/sub 2// above pre-exposure levels after the thermal increase and then returning to pre-exposure levels. The response was judged to be a normal physiological compensation response, not a thermal stress response, as suggested by some investigators. Significant differences were found among seasonal Q/sub O/sub 2// patterns in both species; Q/sub O/sub 2// increased with increasing acclimation temperature. However, no seasonal stress effects were found as a result of exposure to the temperature changes. This implies that the effects of ..delta..T's up to 10(/sup 0/C) from power plants of this design should have no significant impact on these organisms.

  19. Rapid genomic DNA changes in allotetraploid fish hybrids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J; Ye, L H; Liu, Q Z; Peng, L Y; Liu, W; Yi, X G; Wang, Y D; Xiao, J; Xu, K; Hu, F Z; Ren, L; Tao, M; Zhang, C; Liu, Y; Hong, Y H; Liu, S J

    2015-06-01

    Rapid genomic change has been demonstrated in several allopolyploid plant systems; however, few studies focused on animals. We addressed this issue using an allotetraploid lineage (4nAT) of freshwater fish originally derived from the interspecific hybridization of red crucian carp (Carassius auratus red var., ♀, 2n=100) × common carp (Cyprinus carpio L., ♂, 2n=100). We constructed a bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) library from allotetraploid hybrids in the 20th generation (F20) and sequenced 14 BAC clones representing a total of 592.126 kb, identified 11 functional genes and estimated the guanine-cytosine content (37.10%) and the proportion of repetitive elements (17.46%). The analysis of intron evolution using nine orthologous genes across a number of selected fish species detected a gain of 39 introns and a loss of 30 introns in the 4nAT lineage. A comparative study based on seven functional genes among 4nAT, diploid F1 hybrids (2nF1) (first generation of hybrids) and their original parents revealed that both hybrid types (2nF1 and 4nAT) not only inherited genomic DNA from their parents, but also demonstrated rapid genomic DNA changes (homoeologous recombination, parental DNA fragments loss and formation of novel genes). However, 4nAT presented more genomic variations compared with their parents than 2nF1. Interestingly, novel gene fragments were found for the iqca1 gene in both hybrid types. This study provided a preliminary genomic characterization of allotetraploid F20 hybrids and revealed evolutionary and functional genomic significance of allopolyploid animals.

  20. A Rapid and Economical Method for Efficient DNA Extraction from Diverse Soils Suitable for Metagenomic Applications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selvaraju Gayathri Devi

    Full Text Available A rapid, cost effective method of metagenomic DNA extraction from soil is a useful tool for environmental microbiology. The present work describes an improved method of DNA extraction namely "powdered glass method" from diverse soils. The method involves the use of sterile glass powder for cell lysis followed by addition of 1% powdered activated charcoal (PAC as purifying agent to remove humic substances. The method yielded substantial DNA (5.87 ± 0.04 μg/g of soil with high purity (A260/280: 1.76 ± 0.05 and reduced humic substances (A340: 0.047 ± 0.03. The quality of the extracted DNA was compared against five different methods based on 16S rDNA PCR amplification, BamHI digestion and validated using quantitative PCR. The digested DNA was used for a metagenomic library construction with the transformation efficiency of 4 X 106 CFU mL-1. Besides providing rapid, efficient and economical extraction of metgenomic DNA from diverse soils, this method's applicability is also demonstrated for cultivated organisms (Gram positive B. subtilis NRRL-B-201, Gram negative E. coli MTCC40, and a microalgae C. sorokiniana UTEX#1666.

  1. A Rapid and Economical Method for Efficient DNA Extraction from Diverse Soils Suitable for Metagenomic Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devi, Selvaraju Gayathri; Fathima, Anwar Aliya; Radha, Sudhakar; Arunraj, Rex; Curtis, Wayne R; Ramya, Mohandass

    2015-01-01

    A rapid, cost effective method of metagenomic DNA extraction from soil is a useful tool for environmental microbiology. The present work describes an improved method of DNA extraction namely "powdered glass method" from diverse soils. The method involves the use of sterile glass powder for cell lysis followed by addition of 1% powdered activated charcoal (PAC) as purifying agent to remove humic substances. The method yielded substantial DNA (5.87 ± 0.04 μg/g of soil) with high purity (A260/280: 1.76 ± 0.05) and reduced humic substances (A340: 0.047 ± 0.03). The quality of the extracted DNA was compared against five different methods based on 16S rDNA PCR amplification, BamHI digestion and validated using quantitative PCR. The digested DNA was used for a metagenomic library construction with the transformation efficiency of 4 X 106 CFU mL-1. Besides providing rapid, efficient and economical extraction of metgenomic DNA from diverse soils, this method's applicability is also demonstrated for cultivated organisms (Gram positive B. subtilis NRRL-B-201, Gram negative E. coli MTCC40, and a microalgae C. sorokiniana UTEX#1666).

  2. A Rapid and Economical Method for Efficient DNA Extraction from Diverse Soils Suitable for Metagenomic Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devi, Selvaraju Gayathri; Fathima, Anwar Aliya; Radha, Sudhakar; Arunraj, Rex; Curtis, Wayne R.; Ramya, Mohandass

    2015-01-01

    A rapid, cost effective method of metagenomic DNA extraction from soil is a useful tool for environmental microbiology. The present work describes an improved method of DNA extraction namely “powdered glass method” from diverse soils. The method involves the use of sterile glass powder for cell lysis followed by addition of 1% powdered activated charcoal (PAC) as purifying agent to remove humic substances. The method yielded substantial DNA (5.87 ± 0.04 μg/g of soil) with high purity (A260/280: 1.76 ± 0.05) and reduced humic substances (A340: 0.047 ± 0.03). The quality of the extracted DNA was compared against five different methods based on 16S rDNA PCR amplification, BamHI digestion and validated using quantitative PCR. The digested DNA was used for a metagenomic library construction with the transformation efficiency of 4 X 106 CFU mL-1. Besides providing rapid, efficient and economical extraction of metgenomic DNA from diverse soils, this method’s applicability is also demonstrated for cultivated organisms (Gram positive B. subtilis NRRL-B-201, Gram negative E. coli MTCC40, and a microalgae C. sorokiniana UTEX#1666). PMID:26167854

  3. The economics of long-term global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-09-01

    This report is intended to provide an overview of economic issues and research relevant to possible, long-term global climate change. It is primarily a critical survey, not a statement of Administration or Department policy. This report should serve to indicate that economic analysis of global change is in its infancy few assertions about costs or benefits can be made with confidence. The state of the literature precludes any attempt to produce anything like a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis. Moreover, almost all the quantitative estimates regarding physical and economic effects in this report, as well as many of the qualitative assertions, are controversial. Section I provides background on greenhouse gas emissions and their likely climatic effects and on available policy instruments. Section II considers the costs of living with global change, assuming no substantial efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Section III considers costs of reducing these emissions, though the available literature does not contain estimates of the costs of policies that would, on the assumptions of current climate models, prevent climate change altogether. The individual sections are not entirely compartmentalized, but can be read independently if necessary.

  4. Assessing the agricultural costs of climate change: Combining results from crop and economic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howitt, R. E.

    2016-12-01

    Any perturbation to a resource system used by humans elicits both technical and behavioral changes. For agricultural production, economic criteria and their associated models are usually good predictors of human behavior in agricultural production. Estimation of the agricultural costs of climate change requires careful downscaling of global climate models to the level of agricultural regions. Plant growth models for the dominant crops are required to accurately show the full range of trade-offs and adaptation mechanisms needed to minimize the cost of climate change. Faced with the shifts in the fundamental resource base of agriculture, human behavior can either exacerbate or offset the impact of climate change on agriculture. In addition, agriculture can be an important source of increased carbon sequestration. However the effectiveness and timing of this sequestration depends on agricultural practices and farmer behavior. Plant growth models and economic models have been shown to interact in two broad fashions. First there is the direct embedding of a parametric representation plant growth simulations in the economic model production function. A second and more general approach is to have plant growth and crop process models interact with economic models as they are simulated. The development of more general wrapper programs that transfer information between models rapidly and efficiently will encourage this approach. However, this method does introduce complications in terms of matching up disparate scales both in time and space between models. Another characteristic behavioral response of agricultural production is the distinction between the intensive margin which considers the quantity of resource, for example fertilizer, used for a given crop, and the extensive margin of adjustment that measures how farmers will adjust their crop proportions in response to climate change. Ideally economic models will measure the response to both these margins of adjustment

  5. Pheromones-based sexual selection in a rapidly changing world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henneken, Jessica; Jones, Therésa M

    2017-12-01

    Insects utilise chemical cues for a range of different purposes and the complexity and degree of specificity of these signals is arguably unparalleled in the animal kingdom. Chemical signals are particularly important for insect reproduction and the selective pressures driving their evolution and maintenance have been the subject of previous reviews. However, the world in which chemical cues evolved and are maintained is changing at an unprecedented rate. How (or indeed whether) chemical signals used in sexual selection will respond is largely unknown. Here, we explore how recent increases in urbanisation and associated anthropogenic impacts may affect how chemical signals are produced and perceived. We focus on four anthropomorphic influences which have the potential to interact with pheromone-mediated sexual selection processes; climatic temperature shifts, exposure to chemical pollutants, the presence of artificial light at night and nutrient availability. Our aim is to provide a broad overview of key areas where the rapidly changing environment of the future might specifically affect pheromones utilised in sexual selection. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  6. Rapid Middle Eocene temperature change in western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Methner, Katharina; Mulch, Andreas; Fiebig, Jens; Wacker, Ulrike; Gerdes, Axel; Graham, Stephan A.; Chamberlain, C. Page

    2016-09-01

    Eocene hyperthermals are among the most enigmatic phenomena of Cenozoic climate dynamics. These hyperthermals represent temperature extremes superimposed on an already warm Eocene climate and dramatically affected the marine and terrestrial biosphere, yet our knowledge of temperature and rainfall in continental interiors is still rather limited. We present stable isotope (δ18O) and clumped isotope temperature (Δ47) records from a middle Eocene (41 to 40 Ma) high-elevation mammal fossil locality in the North American continental interior (Montana, USA). Δ47 paleotemperatures of soil carbonates delineate a rapid +9/-11 °C temperature excursion in the paleosol record. Δ47 temperatures progressively increase from 23 °C ± 3 °C to peak temperatures of 32 °C ± 3 °C and subsequently drop by 11 °C. This hyperthermal event in the middle Eocene is accompanied by low δ18O values and reduced pedogenic carbonate concentrations in paleosols. Based on laser ablation U/Pb geochronology of paleosol carbonates in combination with magnetostratigraphy, biostratigraphy, stable isotope, and Δ47 evidence, we suggest that this pronounced warming event reflects the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) in western North America. The terrestrial expression of northern hemisphere MECO in western North America appears to be characterized by warmer and wetter (sub-humid) conditions, compared to the post-MECO phase. Large and rapid shifts in δ18O values of precipitation and pedogenic CaCO3 contents parallel temperature changes, indicating the profound impact of the MECO on atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns in the western North American continental interior during this transient warming event.

  7. Evaluation of immediate soft tissue changes after rapid maxillary expansion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ki Beom Kim

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To evaluate immediate soft tissue changes following rapid maxillary expansion (RME in growing patients, using cone beam computed tomography (CBCT. METHODS: Twenty-three consecutive patients (10 male, 13 female treated by RME were selected. Patients were scanned using CBCT prior to placement of the rapid maxillary expander (T0, then immediately following full activation of the appliance (T1. Defined landmarks were then located on the pre- and post-treatment orientated images. Change in landmark position from pre- to post-treatment was then measured. In addition to landmarks, 10 direct measures were made to determine distance change without regard to direction to measure soft tissue change of the lips. RESULTS: Significant transverse expansion was measured on most soft tissue landmark locations. All the measures made showed significant change in the lip position with a lengthening of the vertical dimension of the upper lip, and a generalized decrease of anterior-posterior thickness of both the upper and lower lips. CONCLUSIONS: Significant changes in the soft tissue do occur with RME treatment. There is a transverse widening of the midface, and a thinning of the lips.OBJETIVO: avaliar as mudanças imediatas no tecido mole após a expansão rápida da maxila (ERM em pacientes em fase de crescimento, usando tomografia computadorizada de feixe cônico (TCFC. MÉTODOS: vinte e três pacientes (10 do sexo masculino e 13 do feminino tratados com ERM foram selecionados. Os pacientes foram escaneados por TCFC antes da implantação do expansor maxilar (T0 e imediatamente após a completa ativação do aparelho (T1. Pontos cefalométricos definidos foram localizados nas imagens pré- e pós-tratamento. As mudanças de posição desses pontos do pré- para o pós-tratamento foram, então, analisadas. Adicionalmente aos pontos, 10 medições diretas foram realizadas para determinar a mudança nas distâncias - independentemente da direção - nos

  8. Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henson, Stephanie A.; Beaulieu, Claudie; Ilyina, Tatiana; John, Jasmin G.; Long, Matthew; Séférian, Roland; Tjiputra, Jerry; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2017-03-01

    Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a `business-as-usual' scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.

  9. Measuring Changes in the Economics of Medical Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, Christopher; Rich, Eugene; DesRoches, Catherine; Reschovsky, James; Kogan, Rachel

    2015-08-01

    For the latter third of the twentieth century, researchers have estimated production and cost functions for physician practices. Today, those attempting to measure the inputs and outputs of physician practice must account for many recent changes in models of care delivery. In this paper, we review practice inputs and outputs as typically described in research on the economics of medical practice, and consider the implications of the changing organization of medical practice and nature of physician work. This evolving environment has created conceptual challenges in what are the appropriate measures of output from physician work, as well as what inputs should be measured. Likewise, the increasing complexity of physician practice organizations has introduced challenges to finding the appropriate data sources for measuring these constructs. Both these conceptual and data challenges pose measurement issues that must be overcome to study the economics of modern medical practice. Despite these challenges, there are several promising initiatives involving data sharing at the organizational level that could provide a starting point for developing the needed new data sources and metrics for physician inputs and outputs. However, additional efforts will be required to establish data collection approaches and measurements applicable to smaller and single specialty practices. Overcoming these measurement and data challenges will be key to supporting policy-relevant research on the changing economics of medical practice.

  10. Human relations with soil are changing rapidly: SSSA's new Work Group on Soil Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humanity has rapidly become Earth’s chief agent of soil change, and geologists have named the epoch in which we live the Anthropocene, due to the global scale of human impact on the environment, including soil. In response to the increasing influence of humans on soil processes, the disciplines of ...

  11. [Dynamic changes of the relationships between economic growth and environmental pressure in Gansu Province: a structural decomposition analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zi-Long; Chen, Xing-Peng; Yang, Jing; Xue, Bing; Li, Yong-Jin

    2010-02-01

    Based on the ideology of macro environmental economics, a function of environmental pressure represented by pollutant emission was built, and the relative importance of the driving factors in the dynamic changes of the relationships between economic growth and environmental pressure in Gansu Province in 1990 - 2005 was analyzed by using structural decomposition analysis (SDA) model combining with 'refined Laspeyres' method. In the study period, the environmental pressure in the Province was mainly caused by the emission of waste gases and solids in the process of economic growth, and showed a rapid increasing trend at the late stage of the period. Population factor had less impact on the increase of this environmental pressure, while economic growth factor had obvious impact on it. Technological progress did mitigate, but could not offset the impact of economic growth factor, and the impacts of economic growth and technological factors on the environmental pressure differed with the kinds of pollutants.

  12. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H. [eds.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

  13. Climate Change and Bangladesh: Geographical and Socio-economic Impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farjana Jahan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change, the effects of greenhouse effect and global warming, is out to alter the global map with its devouring prospects of sending a number of countries under the waves. Unfortunately yet unavoidably, Bangladesh stands at the forefront of climate forays. Its land, water and weather are being severely affected by undesirable climatic changes. Alarmingly, the dangers are to be intensified unless the trend is reversed. However, local initiative will hardly be enough to offset the grave concerns of unintended climatic changes in Bangladesh. The changes will also impact the socio-economic conditions of the country, putting the future of the nation on the line. Some ominous signs are already there for the concerned to respond with required amount of fervour. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/dsaj.v7i0.10439 Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology Vol. 7, 2013; 113-132

  14. Potential economic effects of climate change on Finnish agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. KETTUNEN

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available In the assessment of the economic effects of climate change, changes in returns and costs have to be taken into consideration. Changes in returns are mainly caused by changes in the yield level. Costs are determined by various factors. Harvesting conditions may improve as the temperatures are higher. However, an increasing need for disease and pest control results in higher costs. Various extensive studies have indicated that rising temperatures with the CO2 fertilizing effect increase the crop potential in Finland. From the economic point of view an increase in yield level is highly significant, because the increase in costs remains quite small. A 10% increase in the yield level raises the farm income by about 6%. Because agriculture is supported in many ways either directly or indirectly, the rise in income level may be offset by lowering the support. Consequently, farmers may not benefit from an increase in the yield level, but the benefit will go to the state economy. However, an increase in the yield level resulting from rising temperatures is advantageous to the national economy, regardless of whether the benefit goes to the farmers or to the state.;

  15. Economic valuation of climate change adaptation in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stage, Jesper

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews the literature on the economics of climate change adaptation in developing countries, and identifies three key points for consideration in future studies. One key point is that all development policy should be formulated using forecasts from climate science as a baseline. When this is not done, there is risk that a false status quo without climate change is seen as an implicit baseline. Another key point is that authors must be clearer about their behavioral assumptions: Many studies either (problematically) assume profit maximization on the side of farm households, or do not specify behavioral assumptions at all. A third important point is that the allocation of rights is crucial for the results; if households have a right to maintain their current livelihoods, the costs of climate change in developing countries are considerably greater than traditional willingness-to-pay studies would indicate. Thus, costs and benefits of climate change adaptation cannot be analyzed using economic aspects only; climate science, behavioral science, and legal and moral aspects have crucial implications for the outcome of the analysis.

  16. ECONOMIC CRISIS IMPACT ON CHANGES IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS OPERATING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slobodan Cerovic

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The emergence and deepening global economic crisis is in large part reflected in the operation of international financial institutions and their current structure. Long-term financial crisis has increased demands for decisive reform moves in operating and structure of the IMF, World Bank Group and other global and regional financial institutions. This means that so far the results of their policies are inadequate and that their role is subject to critical observation. The crisis has imposed the need to reform international financial institutions and new global financial architecture. Changes in their structure and operation should lead to global economic stability. Members of the Euro zone are faced with a new attitude towards the international financial institutions, particularly the International Monetary Fund. Proclaimed missions of International Monetary Fund and World Bank clearly differ in theory, but with the passage of time their activities have become increasingly intertwined.

  17. Prevention and Control of Cardiovascular Disease in the Rapidly Changing Economy of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yangfeng; Benjamin, Emelia J; MacMahon, Stephen

    2016-06-14

    With one-fifth of the world's total population, China's prevention and control of cardiovascular disease (CVD) may affect the success of worldwide efforts to achieve sustainable CVD reduction. Understanding China's current cardiovascular epidemic requires awareness of the economic development in the past decades. The rapid economic transformations (industrialization, marketization, urbanization, globalization, and informationalization) contributed to the aging demography, unhealthy lifestyles, and environmental changes. The latter have predisposed to increasing cardiovascular risk factors and the CVD pandemic. Rising CVD rates have had a major economic impact, which has challenged the healthcare system and the whole society. With recognition of the importance of health, initial political steps and national actions have been taken to address the CVD epidemic. Looking to the future, we recommend that 4 priorities should be taken: pursue multisectorial government and nongovernment strategies targeting the underlying causes of CVD (the whole-of-government and whole-of-society policy); give priority to prevention; reform the healthcare system to fit the nature of noncommunicable diseases; and conduct research for evidence-based, low-cost, simple, sustainable, and scalable interventions. By pursuing the 4 priorities, the pandemic of CVD and other major noncommunicable diseases in China will be reversed and the global sustainable development goal achieved. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  18. Rapid Detection of Land Cover Changes Using Crowdsourced Geographic Information: A Case Study of Beijing, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Meng

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Land cover change (LCC detection is a significant component of sustainability research including ecological economics and climate change. Due to the rapid variability of natural environment, effective LCC detection is required to capture sufficient change-related information. Although such information has been available through remotely sensed images, the complicated image processing and classification make it time consuming and labour intensive. In contrast, the freely available crowdsourced geographic information (CGI contains easily interpreted textual information, and thus has the potential to be applied for capturing effective change-related information. Therefore, this paper presents and evaluates a method using CGI for rapid LCC detection. As a case study, Beijing is chosen as the study area, and CGI is applied to monitor LCC information. As one kind of CGI which is generated from commercial Internet maps, points of interest (POIs with detailed textual information are utilised to detect land cover in 2016. Those POIs are first classified into land cover nomenclature based on their textual information. Then, a kernel density approach is proposed to effectively generate land cover regions in 2016. Finally, with GlobeLand30 in 2010 as baseline map, LCC is detected using the post-classification method in the period of 2010–2016 in Beijing. The result shows that an accuracy of 89.20% is achieved with land cover regions generated by POIs, indicating that POIs are reliable for rapid LCC detection. Additionally, an LCC detection comparison is proposed between remotely sensed images and CGI, revealing the advantages of POIs in terms of LCC efficiency. However, due to the uneven distribution, remotely sensed images are still required in areas with few POIs.

  19. SOCIAL INEQUALITY IN CHINA AS A RESULT OF THE RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Вероника Игоревна Шехурдина

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the period of openness in China, laid the foundation for more than 30 years ago, he has made remarkable progress in increasing incomes and reducing absolute poverty. However, they are caused by rising inequality. It should be noted that the rise in inequality was seen almost everywhere in the world over the past two decades. Growing dissatisfaction with the quality of economic growth is often seen in favor of certain groups more than the general population. This is clearly reflected in the growth of inequality between different groups - the rich are getting richer faster than the poor. The economic literature attributes this mainly to globalization, technological change, skills-based, and reduce the "power" of the workers. Growth model, which accompanies the last three decades to China, included a trade-off between high growth (and subsequent reduction of absolute poverty and worsening inequality. The government of China has recognized this problem and taken active steps to reduce the gap incomes and standards of living in the city and rural areas, which have already brought the first results.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-10-16

  20. The Causal Relationship between Urbanization, Economic Growth and Water Use Change in Provincial China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Bao

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between urbanization, economic growth, and water use change is one of the key issues for China’s sustainable development, as rapid urbanization and continuous economic growth are accompanied by a steady water stress. Thus, we applied a cointegration test and a VECM (vector error correction model Granger causality test to investigate the causal relationship between the urbanization level, the economic development level, and the total water use in China and its 31 provincial administrative regions during 1997–2013. Results show that the three indicators have a long-run equilibrium relationship in most provincial administrative regions in China. However, the short-run effects and Granger causal relationship are insignificant for China and most provincial administrative regions. Therefore, that an idea such as urbanization as the engine or major driving force of economic growth, and that China’s urbanization and economic growth will bring a water crisis and will be strongly constrained by water resources, might be properly weakened. Targeted and relatively separate policies should be emphasized more for the coordinated development of China’s urbanization, economy, and water resources.

  1. Optical Defocus Rapidly Changes Choroidal Thickness in Schoolchildren.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danyang Wang

    Full Text Available The current study aimed to examine the short-term choroidal response to optical defocus in schoolchildren. Myopic schoolchildren aged 8-16 were randomly allocated to control group (CG, myopic defocus group (MDG and hyperopic defocus group (HDG (n = 17 per group. Children in MDG and HDG received additional +3D and -3D lenses, respectively, to their full corrections on the right eyes. Full correction was given to their left eyes, and on both eyes in the CG. Axial length (AXL and subfoveal choroidal thickness (SFChT were then measured by spectral domain optical coherence tomography. Children wore their group-specific correction for 2 hours after which any existing optical defocus was removed, and subjects wore full corrections for another 2 hours. Both the AXL and SFChT were recorded hourly for 4 hours. The mean refraction of all subjects was -3.41 ± 0.37D (± SEM. SFChT thinned when exposed to hyperopic defocus for 2 hours but less thinning was observed in response to myopic defocus compared to the control group (p < 0.05, two-way ANOVA. Removal of optical defocus significantly decreased SFChT in the MDG and significantly increased SFChT in the HDG after 1 and 2 hours (mean percentage change at 2-hour; control vs. hyperopic defocus vs. myopic defocus; -0.33 ± 0.59% vs. 3.04 ± 0.60% vs. -1.34 ± 0.74%, p < 0.01. Our results showed short-term exposure to myopic defocus induced relative choroidal thickening while hyperopic defocus led to choroidal thinning in children. This rapid and reversible choroidal response may be an important clinical parameter in gauging retinal response to optical defocus in human myopia.

  2. Physical-Socio-Economic Modeling of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; Vatan, F.

    2008-12-01

    Because of the global nature of climate change, any assessment of the effects of plans, policies, and response to climate change demands a model that encompasses the entire Earth System, including socio- economic factors. Physics-based climate models of the factors that drive global temperatures, rainfall patterns, and sea level are necessary but not sufficient to guide decision making. Actions taken by farmers, industrialists, environmentalists, politicians, and other policy makers may result in large changes to economic factors, international relations, food production, disease vectors, and beyond. These consequences will not be felt uniformly around the globe or even across a given region. Policy models must comprehend all of these considerations. Combining physics-based models of the Earth's climate and biosphere with societal models of population dynamics, economics, and politics is a grand challenge with high stakes. We propose to leverage our recent advances in modeling and simulation of military stability and reconstruction operations to models that address all these areas of concern. Following over twenty years' experience of successful combat simulation, JPL has started developing Minerva, which will add demographic, economic, political, and media/information models to capabilities that already exist. With these new models, for which we have design concepts, it will be possible to address a very wide range of potential national and international problems that were previously inaccessible. Our climate change model builds on Minerva and expands the geographical horizon from playboxes containing regions and neighborhoods to the entire globe. This system consists of a collection of interacting simulation models that specialize in different aspects of the global situation. They will each contribute to and draw from a pool of shared data. The basic models are: the physical model; the demographic model; the political model; the economic model; and the media

  3. Changing Climate, Changing Behavior: Adaptive Economic Behavior and Housing Markets Responses to Flood Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Filatova, Tatiana; Bin, Okmyung; Kaminski, Bogumil; Koloch, Grzegorz

    2014-01-01

    Spatial econometrics and analytical spatial economic modeling advanced significantly in the recent years. Yet, methodologically they are designed to tackle marginal changes in the underlying dynamics of spatial urban systems. In the world with climate change, however, abrupt sudden non-marginal

  4. ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE STRATEGIES IN THE CURRENT ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONTEXT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iuliana, TALMACIU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to analyze the main strategies for implementing organizational changes in the current social and economic context, characterized by an unprecedented dynamism. As a result, the paper presents the results of the research that have led to the identification of the factors determining the application of a particular strategy or even the usage of their mix. To achieve the established objectives set we have used as a research method the content analysis of various Romanian and foreign authors' work.

  5. How New Economic Ideas Changed the Danish Welfare State

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Christian Albrekt; Andersen, Jørgen Goul

    2009-01-01

    The article argues that new economic ideas have exerted an independent causal effect on policy change in three major areas in the Danish welfare state; unemployment insurance, early retirement and taxation. Thereby the Danish case bears resemblance to the paradigmatic shift from Keynesianism...... to monetarism in the UK. However, in the Danish case this paradigmatic shift did not coincide with a political shift to a right-wing government. This makes it possible to disentangle the intimate relationship between ideas and interests. It is argued that the Danish case provides one of the clearest examples...

  6. Hydrothermal iron flux variability following rapid sea level changes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Middleton, Jennifer L; Langmuir, Charles H; Mukhopadhyay, Sujoy; McManus, Jerry F; Mitrovica, Jerry X

    2016-01-01

    .... Mir sediments reveal sixfold to eightfold increases in hydrothermal iron and copper deposition during the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by a rapid decline during the sea level rise associated with deglaciation...

  7. ENTREPRENEURSHIP, SUPPORT OF THE ECONOMIC CHANGES IN CHINA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlăduț-Severian IACOB

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Viewed as an extremely tempting and complex topic, entrepreneurship is still a young, emerging field of study with a low paradigmatic evolution which arises strong interest among researchers, practitioners and political deciders. The detailed examination of the multiple nature of entrepreneurship has revealed the manifestation of more analysis stages, each of these contributing to a deeper understanding of the field. The focus of the studies was directed mainly to the individual, corporations and nations. The research of entrepreneurship at an individual level focuses on the people’s entrepreneurial skills, on their ability to take risks and other personal particularities. The analysis of the corporate level of entrepreneurship emphasizes the companies’ potential to develop strategies to ensure their existence in the business field. At national level, entrepreneurship seen as a result of culture, research-development, access to financing and technology can be considered the ”engine” of economic growth and poverty reduction. The present study wishes to combine all these aspects to argument the force of entrepreneurship in China, a country with an economy in transition, where, in the last three decades, an assumed economic development was registered. Thus, it is shown that at individual level, the Chinese entrepreneurship focuses on entrepreneurial education that is closely related to individuals’ intentions. The corporate level is captured through the evolution of generations of entrepreneurs and their concepts regarding the development strategies of their companies. At national level, the development of entrepreneurship has completed on behalf of the Chinese government’ s efforts to ensure an economic friendly environment , a better life standard, a coherent education reform, a change of business attitude and the regional economic opening.

  8. Rapid Change without Transformation: The Dominance of a National Policy Paradigm over International Influences on ECEC Development in Ireland 1995-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe, Toby; O'Donoghue-Hynes, Bernie; Hayes, Nóirín

    2013-01-01

    The rapidity of change in Irish early childhood policy over the last 20 years is clear to observers (OECD Thematic Review of Early Childhood Education and Care Policy in Ireland. "Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development," Paris, 2004). What may be debated is how significant the changes are. In this paper, we analyse…

  9. The Economic Value of Changes in Water Quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Anne Kejser

    Water quality is from both a European and Danish perspective challenged by private use of the resource. The public good characteristics of the resource require that regulation should internalize the non-market values of water quality, in order to reach an optimal level from a welfare economic...... perspective. Valuation using stated preference techniques to value changes in ecosystem services has been widely used to estimate values of water quality. However, heterogeneity in values exists across different groups in the population. The objective of this PhD-thesis is to explore two different kinds...... of preference heterogeneity, when valuing changes in water quality. The PhD thesis consists of four papers all related to heterogeneity in the public preferences for water quality improvements. Papers referred to as 1, 2 and 3 are based on a discrete choice experiment (DCE) on water quality improvements...

  10. Women in Physics in a Rapidly Changing China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ling-An

    2008-03-01

    Despite the upheavals of the 20th century, physics managed to survive quite well in China, where the first woman president of the American Physical Society was born and bred. During the 1950s as a result of policies that emphasized science and engineering, declared equal rights and equal pay for men and women, and assigned jobs to college graduates irrespective of sex, the number of women in physics increased rapidly, many of whom made notable achievements. Since China's opening up over the last thirty years tremendous changes have taken place, and women now face new opportunities as well as challenges in all aspects of society. Whereas physics used to be regarded as the most elite of the sciences, new fields such as computer science, biotechnology and business are now competing for the best students. Compared with other countries the statistics are not bad; in schools and many physics departments the ratio of women teachers may be 30% or higher, but the numbers drop drastically with rank. Moreover, in some research institutions the ratio of female physicists is actually declining, due to retirement of the older generation and fewer successors. Compulsory retirement for women at an earlier age than for men is also a new factor. Conversely, in recent years the ratio of female graduate students enrolling in physics has increased, even reaching 40% in some universities. However, the reasons for this do not bode well: men are not performing so well as women in entrance exams, while the latter are facing increasing discrimination in employment so they have to seek higher degree qualifications. With the further development of China's economy there will be abundant demand for qualified personnel including women with a physics background. It is imperative to actively support the upcoming generation of women physicists and not lose them in the leaky pipeline. The Chinese Physical Society has taken certain positive steps, such as the recent establishment of the Xie Xi

  11. Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiang, Solomon; Kopp, Robert; Jina, Amir; Rising, James; Delgado, Michael; Mohan, Shashank; Rasmussen, D J; Muir-Wood, Robert; Wilson, Paul; Oppenheimer, Michael; Larsen, Kate; Houser, Trevor

    2017-06-30

    Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. The combined value of market and nonmarket damage across analyzed sectors-agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality, and labor-increases quadratically in global mean temperature, costing roughly 1.2% of gross domestic product per +1°C on average. Importantly, risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large transfer of value northward and westward that increases economic inequality. By the late 21st century, the poorest third of counties are projected to experience damages between 2 and 20% of county income (90% chance) under business-as-usual emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

  12. Quantitative stability, qualitative change? Changing socio-economic status and value perceptions of Danish volunteers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Morten; Henriksen, Lars Skov; Qvist, Hans-Peter

    2013-01-01

    Changes in both socio-economic and cultural structures of societies are often assumed to have an impact on volunteering. Changing living conditions and changing values can affect both the level and the nature of volunteering. Most Western societies have over the last 30 years or more experienced ...... preconditions for volunteering have had an effect on factors that are commonly associated with volunteering. We use survey data from Denmark collected over a period from 1990 to 2008.......Changes in both socio-economic and cultural structures of societies are often assumed to have an impact on volunteering. Changing living conditions and changing values can affect both the level and the nature of volunteering. Most Western societies have over the last 30 years or more experienced...... changes in economic conditions, educational levels, and labor markets at the same time as cultural changes have taken place in relation to processes of individualization and reflexivity. Based on empirical data the aim of this paper is to investigate whether and to what extent changes in the structural...

  13. Rapid method to estimate temperature changes in electronics elements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oborskii G. A., Savel’eva O. S., Shikhireva Yu. V.

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Thermal behavior of electronic equipment is the determining factor for performing rapid assessment of the effectiveness of design and operation of the equipment. The assessment method proposed in this article consists in fixation of an infrared video stream from the surface of the device and converting it into a visible flow by means of a thermal imager, splitting it into component colors and their further processing using parabolic transformation. The result of the transformation is the number used as a rapid criterion for estimation of distribution stability of heat in the equipment.

  14. A rapid mitochondrial toxicity assay utilizing rapidly changing cell energy metabolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanuki, Yosuke; Araki, Tetsuro; Nakazono, Osamu; Tsurui, Kazuyuki

    2017-01-01

    Drug-induced liver injury is a major cause of safety-related drug-marketing withdrawals. Several drugs have been reported to disrupt mitochondrial function, resulting in hepatotoxicity. The development of a simple and effective in vitro assay to identify the potential for mitochondrial toxicity is thus desired to minimize the risk of causing hepatotoxicity and subsequent drug withdrawal. An in vitro test method called the "glucose-galactose" assay is often used in drug development but requires prior-culture of cells over several passages for mitochondrial adaptation, thereby restricting use of the assay. Here, we report a rapid version of this method with the same predictability as the original method. We found that replacing the glucose in the medium with galactose resulted in HepG2 cells immediately shifting their energy metabolism from glycolysis to oxidative phosphorylation due to drastic energy starvation; in addition, the intracellular concentration of ATP was reduced by mitotoxicants when glucose in the medium was replaced with galactose. Using our proposed rapid method, mitochondrial dysfunction in HepG2 cells can be evaluated by drug exposure for one hour without a pre-culture step. This rapid assay for mitochondrial toxicity may be more suitable for high-throughput screening than the original method at an early stage of drug development.

  15. Rapid socio-cultural change and health in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, P

    2001-01-01

    health and survival have improved but at the expense of mental health. The incidence of tuberculosis and the infant mortality rate have decreased because of improved socioeconomic conditions and health care. Mental health has deteriorated parallel to the rapid modernization of Greenlandic society...

  16. Economic crisis and changes in drug use in the Spanish economically active population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colell, Esther; Sánchez-Niubò, Albert; Delclos, George L; Benavides, Fernando G; Domingo-Salvany, Antonia

    2015-07-01

    To examine changes in the use of alcohol, cannabis and hypnotics/sedatives between two periods (before and during Spain's economic crisis), and to identify differences in the change between employed and unemployed individuals. Using cross-sectional data from four editions of the Spanish Household Survey on Alcohol and Drugs, we selected economically active individuals aged 16-64 years (total sample = 62 440) and defined two periods, pre-crisis [period 1 (P1) = 2005-07] and crisis (P2 = 2009-11). Poisson regression models with robust variance were fitted to obtain prevalence ratios (PR) of heavy and binge drinking and multinomial regression models to obtain relative risk ratios (RRR) of cannabis and hypnotic/sedative use between the two periods, also considering the interaction between period and employment status. While the prevalence of alcohol use remained stable, heavy drinking declined in P2 in men both overall [PR = 0.73; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.67-0.79] and in the two age groups (16-34 and 35-64 years), and also in women overall (PR = 0.86; 95% CI = 0.75-0.99) and in the older age group. In contrast, binge drinking increased overall in P2 in men (PR = 1.17; 95% CI = 1.12-1.22) and in women (PR = 1.62; 95% CI = 1.49-1.76), and in both age groups. No differences in the change were observed between employed and unemployed individuals. Overall cannabis use remained stable in P2, but unemployed men and women of the older age group were more likely to have increased sporadic use compared to their employed counterparts (RRR = 2.24; 95% CI = 1.36-3.68 and RRR = 3.21; 95% CI = 1.30-7.93, respectively). Hypnotic/sedative use remained stable in P2 in men, but unemployed men were less likely to have increased heavy use in P2 compared with employed men (RRR = 0.69; 95% CI = 0.49-0.97). In women, heavy use increased in P2 overall and in the older age group, irrespective of employment status. During a period of economic recession in Spain, heavy drinking

  17. Shifts in household demographics herald economic changes for Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenspan, A

    1993-06-01

    In Thailand, dramatic changes in households and the health status of the population have led to important implications for the economic sector. These changes affect health, education, housing, employment and transportation. A new book on the economic impact of demographic change by Andrew Mason and Burnham O. Campbell is referred to as a full discussion of the issues. National planning and projections must include household characteristics as well as numerical projections. The analysis of Mason and Campbell is summarized in this article. Important changes are occurring in the size, rate of growth, and age structure of Thailand's population. Life expectancy has risen to 63 years for men and 68 years for women. Fertility has fallen to 2 children/woman. Population growth was 1.9% in 1990. In 1990, there were only 1 in 3 under the age of 15, and these numbers are expected to shrink to 1 in 4 by the year 2000. 60% of the population is of working age; this is expected to increase to 65% by the year 2000. The 60 years old population is expected to be 7.5% of the total in the year 2000. The average household has 1.6 children. 96% of households live with a relative. The expectation is that household size will continue to decrease and the number of households will continue to grow. The number of elderly heads of households is expected to rise to 11% by 2010. Households will become "adultified." The policy implications for education are that the school age population will gradually decreases but the number enrolled will increase. Primary school enrollment will stabilize and then decline after 1995. Secondary school enrollment will increase and level off in 2005. Total enrollment will increase from 10.5 million in 1990 to 11.4 million in 2000 and decline to 10.7 in 2015. These changes will allow for improvements in the quality of education and expand educational attainment. In health care, the demand for maternal and child health services will decline; changes will occur in

  18. Assessment of changes in smile after rapid maxillary expansion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Morales Cobra de Carvalho

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: This study evaluated changes in the smile characteristics of patients with maxillary constriction submitted to rapid maxillary expansion (RME. METHODS: The sample consisted of 81 extraoral photographs of maximum smile of 27 patients with mean age of 10 years, before expansion and 3 and 6 months after fixation of the expanding screw. The photographs were analyzed on the software Cef X 2001, with achievement of the following measurements: Transverse smile area, buccal corridors, exposure of maxillary incisors, gingival exposure of maxillary incisors, smile height, upper and lower lip thickness, smile symmetry and smile arch. Statistical analysis was performed by analysis of variance (ANOVA, at a significance level of 5%. RESULTS: RME promoted statistically significant increase in the transverse smile dimension and exposure of maxillary central and lateral incisors; maintenance of right and left side smile symmetry and of the lack of parallelism between the curvature of the maxillary incisal edges and lower lip border. CONCLUSIONS: RME was beneficial for the smile esthetics with the increase of the transverse smile dimension and exposure of maxillary central and lateral incisors.INTRODUÇÃO: esse estudo avaliou as alterações das características do sorriso de pacientes com atresia maxilar submetidos à expansão rápida da maxila (ERM. MÉTODOS: a amostra consistiu de 81 fotografias extrabucais do sorriso máximo de 27 pacientes, com idade média de 10 anos, antes da expansão e aos três e seis meses após a fixação do parafuso expansor. As análises das fotografias foram realizadas por meio do programa Cef X 2001, e as seguintes medidas foram analisadas: dimensão transversal do sorriso, corredores bucais, quantidade de exposição dos incisivos superiores, exposição gengival dos incisivos superiores, altura do sorriso, espessuras dos lábios superior e inferior, simetria e arco do sorriso. As alterações no sorriso durante

  19. Policy options to respond to rapid climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swart, R.J.; Marinova, N.A.; Bakker, S.; Tilburg, van X.

    2009-01-01

    Ongoing research on climate change indicates that we cannot rule out the possibility of extreme climatic changes, beyond current IPCC scenarios. The thinking about policy responses to address these risks is still in its infancy. This study explores the possibilities for responding to extreme

  20. Changes in Sensory Evoked Responses Coincide with Rapid Improvement in Speech Identification Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alain, Claude; Campeanu, Sandra; Tremblay, Kelly

    2010-01-01

    Perceptual learning is sometimes characterized by rapid improvements in performance within the first hour of training (fast perceptual learning), which may be accompanied by changes in sensory and/or response pathways. Here, we report rapid physiological changes in the human auditory system that coincide with learning during a 1-hour test session…

  1. Climate Change, Air Pollution, and the Economics of Health Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilly, J.; Yang, T.; Paltsev, S.; Wang, C.; Prinn, R.; Sarofim, M.

    2003-12-01

    Climate change and air pollution are intricately linked. The distinction between greenhouse substances and other air pollutants is resolved at least for the time being in the context of international negotiations on climate policy through the identification of CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6 and the per- and hydro- fluorocarbons as substances targeted for control. Many of the traditional air pollutant emissions including for example CO, NMVOCs, NOx, SO2, aerosols, and NH3 also directly or indirectly affect the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Among both sets of gases are precursors of and contributors to pollutants such as tropopospheric ozone, itself a strong greenhouse gas, particulate matter, and other pollutants that affect human health. Fossil fuel combustion, production, or transportation is a significant source for many of these substances. Climate policy can thus affect traditional air pollution or air pollution policy can affect climate. Health effects of acute or chronic exposure to air pollution include increased asthma, lung cancer, heart disease and bronchitis among others. These, in turn, redirect resources in the economy toward medical expenditures or result in lost labor or non-labor time with consequent effects on economic activity, itself producing a potential feedback on emissions levels. Study of these effects ultimately requires a fully coupled earth system model. Toward that end we develop an approach for introducing air pollution health impacts into the Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a component of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) a coupled economics-chemistry-atmosphere-ocean-terrestrial biosphere model of earth systems including an air pollution model resolving the urban scale. This preliminary examination allows us to consider how climate policy affects air pollution and consequent health effects, and to study the potential impacts of air pollution policy on climate. The novel contribution is the effort to

  2. Atlas of social and economic conditions and change in southern California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry L. Raettig; Dawn M. Elmer; Harriet H. Christensen

    2001-01-01

    This atlas illustrates the spatial and temporal dimensions of social and economic changes in the social-economic assessment region in the decade since 1987/1988. Maps, interpretive text, and accompanying tables and graphs portray conditions, trends, and changes in selected social, economic, and natural resource-related indicators for the 26 counties of the diverse...

  3. Why do regions develop and change?: the challenge for geography and economics

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Storper

    2011-01-01

    Explaining the growth and change of regions and cities is one of the great challenges for social science. The field of economic geography and associated economics has developed frameworks in recent years that, while tackling major questions in spatial economic development, are deficient in their ability to explain geographical develop in a causal way, and to incorporate principal forces for change.

  4. Changes in nasal volume of patients undergoing rapid maxillary expansion

    OpenAIRE

    Muniz, Renata Da Fonseca Lacerda E; Mario Cappellette Jr.; Daniela Carlini

    2008-01-01

    Os efeitos da disjunção maxilar na resistência nasal e fluxo aéreo têm sido amplamente discutidos na literatura, com controvérsias. Suas indicações esqueléticas e dentárias parecem estar bem claras. Porém, aquelas puramente rinológicas não são justificadas, porque nem sempre resultados positivos são encontrados. Este estudo teve por finalidade avaliar a repercussão da disjunção maxilar ortopédica no aspecto respiratório e rinológico dos pacientes submetidos a esse procedimento.Rapid maxillary...

  5. Urbanization and environmental change during the economic transition on the Mongolian Plateau: Hohhot and Ulaanbaatar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Peilei; Chen, Jiquan; John, Ranjeet

    2016-01-01

    Driven by drastic socioeconomic changes in China and Mongolia, urbanization has become one of the most significant driving forces in the transformation of the Mongolian Plateau in the past 30 years. Using Hohhot and Ulaanbaatar as case studies, we developed a holistic approach to examine the socioeconomic and natural driving forces for urbanization and to investigate the impact on the urban environment. We used a multidisciplinary approach and relied on a variety of data sources to assess the changes of the landscape and environment of the two cities. We detected a rapid urbanization in Hohhot and Ulaanbaatar, both in terms of urban population growth and urban land expansion, from 1990 to 2010, with a much faster speed in 2000-2010. The local geo-physical conditions have constrained the spatial direction of expansion. Ulaanbaatar lagged behind Hohhot for about a decade when measured by indicators of urban population and urban land. Both cities have a degraded urban environment and a growing air pollution epidemic. While Hohhot had worse air pollution than Ulaanbaatar in the early 2000s, the gap between the two cities became smaller after 2010. The research presented here highlights the following as key determinants for urbanization and environmental change: (1) the co-evolution of urbanization, economic development, and environmental change; (2) the urbanization of transitional economies driven by the change of the economic structure, i.e., the development by both manufacturing and tertiary sectors and the change in the primary sector; and (3) the recent institutional changes and increased integration with the global economy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. The Impact of Rapid Climate Change on Prehistoric Societies during the Holocene in the Eastern Mediterranean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernhard Weninger

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we explore the impact of Rapid Climate Change (RCC on prehistoric communities in the Eastern Mediterranean during the Early and Middle Holocene. Our focus is on the social implications of the four major climate cold anomalies that have recently been identified as key time-windows for global RCC (Mayewski et al. 2004. These cooling anomalies are well-dated, with Greenland ice-core resolution, due to synchronicity between warm/cold foraminifera ratios in Mediterranean core LC21 as a proxy for surface water temperature, and Greenland GISP2 non sea-salt (nss [K+] ions as a proxy for the intensification of the Siberian High and for polar air outbreaks in the northeast Mediterranean (Rohling et al. 2002. Building on these synchronisms, the GISP2 agemodel supplies the following precise time-intervals for archaeological RCC research: (i 8.6–8.0 ka, (ii 6.0–5.2 ka, (iii 4.2–4.0 ka and (iv 3.1–2.9 ka calBP. For each of these RCC time intervals, based on detailed 14C-based chronological studies, we investigate contemporaneous cultural developments. From our studies it follows that RCC-related climatic deterioration is a major factor underlying social change, although always at work within a wide spectrum of social, cultural, economic and religious factors.

  7. Rapid response to climate change in a marginal sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, K; Chiggiato, J; Josey, S A; Borghini, M; Aracri, S; Sparnocchia, S

    2017-06-22

    The Mediterranean Sea is a mid-latitude marginal sea, particularly responsive to climate change as reported by recent studies. The Sicily Channel is a choke point separating the sea in two main basins, the Eastern Mediterranean Sea and the Western Mediterranean Sea. Here, we report and analyse a long-term record (1993-2016) of the thermohaline properties of the Intermediate Water that crosses the Sicily Channel, showing increasing temperature and salinity trends much stronger than those observed at intermediate depths in the global ocean. We investigate the causes of the observed trends and in particular determine the role of a changing climate over the Eastern Mediterranean, where the Intermediate Water is formed. The long-term Sicily record reveals how fast the response to climate change can be in a marginal sea like the Mediterranean Sea compared to the global ocean, and demonstrates the essential role of long time series in the ocean.

  8. Rapid millennial-scale vegetation changes in the tropical Andes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Urrego, D.H.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Rama-Corredor, O.; Martrat, B.; Grimalt, J.O.; Thompson, L.

    2015-01-01

    We compare eight pollen records reflecting climatic and environmental change from the tropical Andes. Our analysis focuses on the last 50 ka, with particular emphasis on the Pleistocene to Holocene transition. We explore ecological grouping and downcore ordination results as two approaches for

  9. Planetary health: protecting human health on a rapidly changing planet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Samuel S

    2018-12-23

    The impact of human activities on our planet's natural systems has been intensifying rapidly in the past several decades, leading to disruption and transformation of most natural systems. These disruptions in the atmosphere, oceans, and across the terrestrial land surface are not only driving species to extinction, they pose serious threats to human health and wellbeing. Characterising and addressing these threats requires a paradigm shift. In a lecture delivered to the Academy of Medical Sciences on Nov 13, 2017, I describe the scale of human impacts on natural systems and the extensive associated health effects across nearly every dimension of human health. I highlight several overarching themes that emerge from planetary health and suggest advances in the way we train, reward, promote, and fund the generation of health scientists who will be tasked with breaking out of their disciplinary silos to address this urgent constellation of health threats. I propose that protecting the health of future generations requires taking better care of Earth's natural systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Alveolar bone changes after asymmetric rapid maxillary expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akin, Mehmet; Baka, Zeliha Muge; Ileri, Zehra; Basciftci, Faruk Ayhan

    2015-09-01

    To quantitatively evaluate the effects of asymmetric rapid maxillary expansion (ARME) on cortical bone thickness and buccal alveolar bone height (BABH), and to determine the formation of dehiscence and fenestration in the alveolar bone surrounding the posterior teeth, using cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT). The CBCT records of 23 patients with true unilateral posterior skeletal crossbite (10 boys, 14.06 ± 1.08 years old, and 13 girls, 13.64 ± 1.32 years old) who had undergone ARME were selected from our clinic archives. The bonded acrylic ARME appliance, including an occlusal stopper, was used on all patients. CBCT records had been taken before ARME (T1) and after the 3-month retention period (T2). Axial slices of the CBCT images at 3 vertical levels were used to evaluate the buccal and palatal aspects of the canines, first and second premolars, and first molars. Paired samples and independent sample t-tests were used for statistical comparison. The results suggest that buccal cortical bone thickness of the affected side was significantly more affected by the expansion than was the unaffected side (P ARME significantly reduced the BABH of the canines (P ARME also increased the incidence of dehiscence and fenestration on the affected side. ARME may quantitatively decrease buccal cortical bone thickness and height on the affected side.

  11. A decade of rapid change: Biocultural influences on child growth in highland Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oths, Kathryn S; Smith, Hannah N; Stein, Max J; Lazo Landivar, Rodrigo J

    2017-10-30

    In the past decade many areas of Peru have been undergoing extreme environmental, economic, and cultural change. In the highland hamlet of Chugurpampa, La Libertad, climate change has ruined harvests and led to frequent periods of migration to the coast in search of livelihood. This biocultural research examines how the changes could be affecting the growth of children who maintain residence in the highlands. Clinical records from the early 2000s were compared to those from the early 2010s. Charts were randomly selected to record anthropometric data, netting a sample of 75 children ages 0-60 months of age. Analysis of covariance was run to compare mean stature, weight, and BMI between cohorts. Percentage of children who fall below the -2 threshold for z-scores for height and weight were compared by age and cohort. A significant secular trend in growth was found, with children born more recently larger than those born a decade before. The effect is most notable in the first year of life, with the growth advantage attenuated by the age of 3 for height and age 4 for weight. While children were unlikely to be stunted from 0 to 3 years of age, 44% of the later cohort were stunted and 11% were underweight from 4 to 5 years of age. Three possible explanations for the rapid shift are entertained: more time spent on the coast during gestation and early childhood, which may attenuate the effect of hypoxia on child growth; dietary change; and increased use of biomedicine. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Timber harvesting, processing, and employment in the Northwest Economic Adjustment Initiative region: changes and economic assistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry L. Raettig; Harriet H. Christensen

    1999-01-01

    The Northwest economic adjustment initiative (NWEAI) provides economic assistance to a region including western Washington, western Oregon, and northern California. Timber harvests have fallen markedly in this region since 1990. The forest products industry is the largest manufacturing sector in the region, and employment has followed the downward trend in timber...

  13. Dynamic changes at the rapidly advancing Yahtse Glacier, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durkin, William J.; Bartholomaus, Timothy C.; Willis, Michael J.; Pritchard, Matthew E.

    2017-03-01

    Since 1990, Yahtse Glacier in southern Alaska has advanced at an average rate of ˜100 m/yr despite of a negative mass balance, widespread thinning in its accumulation area, and a low accumulation-area ratio. To better understand the interannual and seasonal changes at Yahtse and the processes driving these changes, we construct velocity and ice surface elevation time series spanning the years 1985-2014 and 2000-2014, respectively, using satellite optical and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations. In terms of seasonal changes, we find contrasting dynamics above and below a steep (up to 18% slope) icefall located approximately 6 km from the terminus. Above the icefall, speeds peak in May and reach minima in October synchronous with the development of a calving embayment at the terminus. This may be caused by an efficient, channelized subglacial drainage system that focuses subglacial discharge into a plume, resulting in a local increase in calving and submarine melting. However, velocities near the terminus are fastest in the winter, following terminus retreat, possibly off of a terminal moraine resulting in decreased backstress. Between 1996-2014 the terminus decelerated by ˜40% at an average rate of ˜0.4 m/day/yr , transitioned from tensile to compressive longitudinal strain rates, and dynamically thickened at rates of 1-6 m/yr , which we hypothesize is in response to the development and advance of a terminal moraine. The described interannual changes decay significantly upstream of the icefall, indicating that the icefall may inhibit the upstream transmission of stress perturbations. We suggest that diminished stress transmission across the icefall could allow Yahtse’s upper basin to remain in a state of mass drawdown despite of moraine-enabled terminus advance. Our work highlights the importance of glacier geometry in controlling tidewater glacier re-advance, particularly in a climate favoring increasing equilibrium line altitudes.

  14. Rapid changes in the gut microbiome during human evolution

    OpenAIRE

    Moeller, Andrew H.; Li, Yingying; Mpoudi Ngole, Eitel; Ahuka-Mundeke, Steve; Lonsdorf, Elizabeth V.; Pusey, Anne E.; Peeters, Martine; Hahn, Beatrice H.; Ochman, Howard

    2014-01-01

    Humans are ecosystems containing trillions of microorganisms, but the evolutionary history of this microbiome is obscured by a lack of knowledge about microbiomes of African apes. We sequenced the gut communities of hundreds of chimpanzees, bonobos, and gorillas and developed a phylogenetic approach to reconstruct how present-day human microbiomes have diverged from those of ancestral populations. Compositional change in the microbiome was slow and clock-like during African ape diversificatio...

  15. Rapid isotopic changes in groundwater, upper Rio Guanajuato catchment, Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cortes, Alejandra; Durazo, Jaime [Departamento de recursos naturales, Instituto de Geofisica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Kralisch, Stefanie [Posgrado en Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

    2007-01-15

    Significant changes in the isotopic composition of groundwater in the upper catchment of Rio Guanajuato, Mexico, were detected in two independent sets of samplers for 3 % of the 1600 high-production wells in the area. Sampling was done in December 1998 (53 samples), and in July - August 2003 (41 samples). Average deuterium concentration did not change between 1998 and 2003 but the average oxygen-18 concentration suggested a generalized dilution from deep water from infiltrated local precipitation. This regional change occurred within 56 months, indicating a highly dynamic hydrogeologic system. Fast replenishment of aquifer storage, or non sustainable over-pumping of old aquifer reserves, are possible explanations. [Spanish] Cambios isotopicos significativos en el agua subterranea de la cuenca alta del Rio Guanajuato, Mexico, fueron detectados en dos conjuntos independientes de muestras que incluyeron al 3% de los 1600 pozos de alta produccion del area. Los muestreos se realizaron en diciembre de 1998 (53 muestras) y en julio - agosto del 2003 (41 muestras). La concentracion promedio del deuterio no cambio entre 1998 y 2003, pero la del oxigeno-18 sugiere una dilucion generalizada del agua profunda por infiltracion de la precipitacion local. Este cambio regional ocurrio dentro de 56 meses, indicando un sistema hidrogeologico muy dinamico. La rapida recuperacion del almacenamiento acuifero o el bombeo insostenible de reservas acuiferas viejas son explicaciones posibles.

  16. How Should the Financial Crisis Change How We Teach Economics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiller, Robert J.

    2010-01-01

    Student dissatisfaction with teaching of economics--particularly with macroeconomics--during the current financial crisis mirrors dissatisfaction that was expressed during the last big crisis, the Great Depression. Then and now, a good number of students have felt that their lectures bear little relation to the economic crisis raging outside the…

  17. EU-wide economic valuation of adaptation to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeuken, Ad; Bouwer, Laurens; Burzel, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    and benefits are explored for present and future climates, for different socio-economic developments paths and different adaptation strategies. For all models the SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) 2 (‘middle of the road’), 3 (‘fragmented world’) and 5 (‘market driven development’) have been explored as well...

  18. Land use changes: economic, social, and environmental impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    JunJie Wu

    2008-01-01

    Land use provides many economic and social benefits but often comes at a substantial cost to the environment. Although most economic costs are figured into land use decisions, most environmental externalities are not. These environmental externalities cause a divergence between private and social costs for some land uses, leading to an inefficient land allocation. For...

  19. How Should the Graduate Economics Core Be Changed?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abito, Jose Miguel; Borovickova, Katarina; Golden, Hays; Goldin, Jacob; Masten, Matthew A.; Morin, Miguel; Poirier, Alexandre; Pons, Vincent; Romem, Israel; Williams, Tyler; Yoon, Chamna

    2011-01-01

    The authors present suggestions by graduate students from a range of economics departments for improving the first-year core sequence in economics. The students identified a number of elements that should be added to the core: more training in building microeconomic models, a discussion of the methodological foundations of model-building, more…

  20. Rapid changes in gene expression direct rapid shifts in intestinal form and function in the Burmese python after feeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Audra L; Card, Daren C; Ruggiero, Robert P; Schield, Drew R; Adams, Richard H; Pollock, David D; Secor, Stephen M; Castoe, Todd A

    2015-05-01

    Snakes provide a unique and valuable model system for studying the extremes of physiological remodeling because of the ability of some species to rapidly upregulate organ form and function upon feeding. The predominant model species used to study such extreme responses has been the Burmese python because of the extreme nature of postfeeding response in this species. We analyzed the Burmese python intestine across a time series, before, during, and after feeding to understand the patterns and timing of changes in gene expression and their relationship to changes in intestinal form and function upon feeding. Our results indicate that >2,000 genes show significant changes in expression in the small intestine following feeding, including genes involved in intestinal morphology and function (e.g., hydrolases, microvillus proteins, trafficking and transport proteins), as well as genes involved in cell division and apoptosis. Extensive changes in gene expression occur surprisingly rapidly, within the first 6 h of feeding, coincide with changes in intestinal morphology, and effectively return to prefeeding levels within 10 days. Collectively, our results provide an unprecedented portrait of parallel changes in gene expression and intestinal morphology and physiology on a scale that is extreme both in the magnitude of changes, as well as in the incredibly short time frame of these changes, with up- and downregulation of expression and function occurring in the span of 10 days. Our results also identify conserved vertebrate signaling pathways that modulate these responses, which may suggest pathways for therapeutic modulation of intestinal function in humans. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  1. Simulation of rapid ecological change in Lake Ontario

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, James E.; Chalupnicki, Marc; Dittman, Dawn E.; Watkins, James M.

    2017-01-01

    Lower trophic level processes are integral to proper functioning of large aquatic ecosystems and have been disturbed in Lake Ontario by various stressors including exotic species. The invasion of benthic habitats by dreissenid mussels has led to systemic changes and native faunal declines. Size-dependent physiological rates, spatial differences and connectivity, competition, and differential population dynamics among invertebrate groups contributed to the change and system complexity. We developed a spatially explicit, individual-based mechanistic model of the benthic ecosystem in Lake Ontario, with coupling to the pelagic system, to examine ecosystem dynamics and effects of dreissenid mussel invasion and native fauna losses. Benthic organisms were represented by functional groups; filter-feeders (i.e., dreissenid mussels), surface deposit-feeders (e.g., native amphipod Diporeia spp.), and deposit-feeders (e.g., oligochaetes and other burrowers). The model was stable, represented ecological structure and function effectively, and reproduced observed effects of the mussel invasion. Two hypotheses for causes of Diporeia loss, competition or disease-like mortality, were tested. Simple competition for food did not explain observed declines in native surface deposit-feeders during the filter-feeder invasion. However, the elevated mortality scenario supports a disease-like cause for loss of the native amphipod, with population changes in various lake areas and altered benthic biomass transfers. Stabilization of mussel populations and possible recovery of the native, surface-deposit feeding amphipod were predicted. Although further research is required on forcing functions, model parameters, and natural conditions, the model provides a valuable tool to help managers understand the benthic system and plan for response to future disruptions.

  2. Rapid adaptive responses to climate change in corals

    KAUST Repository

    Torda, Gergely

    2017-09-01

    Pivotal to projecting the fate of coral reefs is the capacity of reef-building corals to acclimatize and adapt to climate change. Transgenerational plasticity may enable some marine organisms to acclimatize over several generations and it has been hypothesized that epigenetic processes and microbial associations might facilitate adaptive responses. However, current evidence is equivocal and understanding of the underlying processes is limited. Here, we discuss prospects for observing transgenerational plasticity in corals and the mechanisms that could enable adaptive plasticity in the coral holobiont, including the potential role of epigenetics and coral-associated microbes. Well-designed and strictly controlled experiments are needed to distinguish transgenerational plasticity from other forms of plasticity, and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms and their relative importance compared with genetic adaptation.

  3. Rapid changes in the gut microbiome during human evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moeller, Andrew H; Li, Yingying; Mpoudi Ngole, Eitel; Ahuka-Mundeke, Steve; Lonsdorf, Elizabeth V; Pusey, Anne E; Peeters, Martine; Hahn, Beatrice H; Ochman, Howard

    2014-11-18

    Humans are ecosystems containing trillions of microorganisms, but the evolutionary history of this microbiome is obscured by a lack of knowledge about microbiomes of African apes. We sequenced the gut communities of hundreds of chimpanzees, bonobos, and gorillas and developed a phylogenetic approach to reconstruct how present-day human microbiomes have diverged from those of ancestral populations. Compositional change in the microbiome was slow and clock-like during African ape diversification, but human microbiomes have deviated from the ancestral state at an accelerated rate. Relative to the microbiomes of wild apes, human microbiomes have lost ancestral microbial diversity while becoming specialized for animal-based diets. Individual wild apes cultivate more phyla, classes, orders, families, genera, and species of bacteria than do individual humans across a range of societies. These results indicate that humanity has experienced a depletion of the gut flora since diverging from Pan.

  4. Complex interactions in Lake Michigan’s rapidly changing ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderploeg, Henry A.; Bunnell, David B.; Carrick, Hunter J.; Hook, Tomas O.

    2015-01-01

    For over 30 years, Lake Michigan’s food web has been in a constant state of transition from reductions in nutrient loading and proliferation of invasive species at multiple trophic levels. In particular, there has been concern about impacts from the invasive predatory cercopagids (Bythotrephes longimanus and Cercopagis pengoi) and expanding dreissenid mussel and round goby populations. This special issue brings together papers that explore the status of the Lake Michigan food web and the factors responsible for these changes, and suggests research paths that must be taken for understanding and predicting system behavior. This introductory paper describes the special issue origin, presents an overview of the papers, and draws overarching conclusions from the papers.

  5. Rapid maxillary expansion treatment could produce long-term dental arch changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ren, Yijin

    2005-01-01

    : Data Sources: Medline, Medline In-Process, LILACS (Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature), PUBMED, Embase, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library were searched. Search terms were rapid palatal expansion or rapid maxillary expansion (RME) and tooth or dental changes. Reference

  6. Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Mumby, P. J.; Hooten, A. J.; Steneck, R. S.; Greenfield, P.; Gomez, E.; Harvell, C. D.; Sale, P. F.; Edwards, A. J.; Caldeira, K.; Knowlton, N.; Eakin, C. M.; Iglesias-Prieto, R.; Muthiga, N.; Bradbury, R. H.; Dubi, A.; Hatziolos, M. E.

    2007-12-01

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to exceed 500 parts per million and global temperatures to rise by at least 2°C by 2050 to 2100, values that significantly exceed those of at least the past 420,000 years during which most extant marine organisms evolved. Under conditions expected in the 21st century, global warming and ocean acidification will compromise carbonate accretion, with corals becoming increasingly rare on reef systems. The result will be less diverse reef communities and carbonate reef structures that fail to be maintained. Climate change also exacerbates local stresses from declining water quality and overexploitation of key species, driving reefs increasingly toward the tipping point for functional collapse. This review presents future scenarios for coral reefs that predict increasingly serious consequences for reef-associated fisheries, tourism, coastal protection, and people. As the International Year of the Reef 2008 begins, scaled-up management intervention and decisive action on global emissions are required if the loss of coral-dominated ecosystems is to be avoided.

  7. Ethnobiology 5: Interdisciplinarity in an Era of Rapid Environmental Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve Wolverton

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Ethnobiology 5 stems from Eugene Hunn’s four phases of the history of ethnobiology and focuses on the relevance of ethnobiological research in the context of environmental and cultural change.  It refers to a contemporary phase of the field’s historical development.  In this paper, I argue that ethnobiology is preadapted to be a scholarly umbrella for a number of disciplines that concern human-environment interactions, suggesting that one goal of Ethnobiology 5 is to bridge traditional academic boundaries in order to broaden the community of ethnobiologists. Another goal of Ethnobiology 5 is to capitalize on and communicate the relevance of ethnobiological scholarship for solving problems related to contemporary environmental and cultural crises.  Indeed, ethnobiology is not a subfield of any traditional discipline and by the nature of its name bridges humanities, social science, and science.  Ethnobiology has always been interdisciplinary in terms of its subject matter, yet its community of scholars is relatively small compared to mission-driven disciplines, such as conservation biology.  Venues for publication and presentation of ethnobiological research, as well as how ethnobiologists portray their research, are critical to growing ethnobiology.

  8. Rapid response to changing environments during biological invasions: DNA methylation perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xuena; Li, Shiguo; Ni, Ping; Gao, Yangchun; Jiang, Bei; Zhou, Zunchun; Zhan, Aibin

    2017-12-01

    Dissecting complex interactions between species and their environments has long been a research hot spot in the fields of ecology and evolutionary biology. The well-recognized Darwinian evolution has well-explained long-term adaptation scenarios; however, "rapid" processes of biological responses to environmental changes remain largely unexplored, particularly molecular mechanisms such as DNA methylation that have recently been proposed to play crucial roles in rapid environmental adaptation. Invasive species, which have capacities to successfully survive rapidly changing environments during biological invasions, provide great opportunities to study molecular mechanisms of rapid environmental adaptation. Here, we used the methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP) technique in an invasive model ascidian, Ciona savignyi, to investigate how species interact with rapidly changing environments at the whole-genome level. We detected quite rapid DNA methylation response: significant changes of DNA methylation frequency and epigenetic differentiation between treatment and control groups occurred only after 1 hr of high-temperature exposure or after 3 hr of low-salinity challenge. In addition, we detected time-dependent hemimethylation changes and increased intragroup epigenetic divergence induced by environmental stresses. Interestingly, we found evidence of DNA methylation resilience, as most stress-induced DNA methylation variation maintained shortly (~48 hr) and quickly returned back to the control levels. Our findings clearly showed that invasive species could rapidly respond to acute environmental changes through DNA methylation modifications, and rapid environmental changes left significant epigenetic signatures at the whole-genome level. All these results provide fundamental background to deeply investigate the contribution of DNA methylation mechanisms to rapid contemporary environmental adaptation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Using Field Experiments to Change the Template of How We Teach Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, John A.

    2014-01-01

    In this article, the author explains why field experiments can improve what we teach and how we teach economics. Economists no longer operate as passive observers of economic phenomena. Instead, they participate actively in the research process by collecting data from field experiments to investigate the economics of everyday life. This change can…

  10. The effect of political leaders on economic growth through institutional change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dóra Zolcsák

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article summarizes the influence of political leaders on institutions which, according to institutional economics, directly influences economic growth. Furthermore, the study reviews the literature in which leadership itself becomes a significant factor as a possible explanation for the reason for economic growth through institutional change. Although political leader or its role in growth is still viewed as a controversial issue in economics, the paper emphasises what kind of cause-effect relations exist between political leaders and economic growth and reveals that leaders do matter directly in economic performance by the formation of institutions.

  11. The Association Between Changes in Employee Sleep and Changes in Workplace Health and Economic Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chin-Yu; Schultz, Alyssa B; Li, Xingquan; Burton, Wayne N

    2017-05-09

    Sleep disturbance is negatively associated with workplace productivity. This study sought to identify whether or not changes in sleep from 2012 to 2013 were associated with changes in health risks, medical conditions, or workplace economic outcomes. Employees of a Fortune 100 financial services corporation were categorized based on changes in self-reported hours of sleep from 2012 to 2013 and compared based on their health risk factors, medical conditions, health care costs, and productivity measures. Consistently poor sleepers had more health risks and medical conditions compared to consistently optimal sleepers. Sleep improvers had a significant reduction in lost on-the-job productivity while consistently poor sleepers and downgraders had significantly more lost productivity compared to optimal sleepers. Employers may wish to incorporate sleep education initiatives as part of their overall health and wellness strategy.

  12. Economic impact of rapid diagnostic methods in Clinical Microbiology: Price of the test or overall clinical impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantón, Rafael; Gómez G de la Pedrosa, Elia

    2017-12-01

    The need to reduce the time it takes to establish a microbiological diagnosis and the emergence of new molecular microbiology and proteomic technologies has fuelled the development of rapid and point-of-care techniques, as well as the so-called point-of-care laboratories. These laboratories are responsible for conducting both techniques partially to response to the outsourcing of the conventional hospital laboratories. Their introduction has not always been accompanied with economic studies that address their cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit and cost-utility, but rather tend to be limited to the unit price of the test. The latter, influenced by the purchase procedure, does not usually have a regulated reference value in the same way that medicines do. The cost-effectiveness studies that have recently been conducted on mass spectrometry in the diagnosis of bacteraemia and the use of antimicrobials have had the greatest clinical impact and may act as a model for future economic studies on rapid and point-of-care tests. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

  13. A rapid, efficient, and economic device and method for the isolation and purification of mouse islet cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yin Zongyi

    Full Text Available Rapid, efficient, and economic method for the isolation and purification of islets has been pursued by numerous islet-related researchers. In this study, we compared the advantages and disadvantages of our developed patented method with those of commonly used conventional methods (Ficoll-400, 1077, and handpicking methods. Cell viability was assayed using Trypan blue, cell purity and yield were assayed using diphenylthiocarbazone, and islet function was assayed using acridine orange/ethidium bromide staining and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay-glucose stimulation testing 4 days after cultivation. The results showed that our islet isolation and purification method required 12 ± 3 min, which was significantly shorter than the time required in Ficoll-400, 1077, and HPU groups (34 ± 3, 41 ± 4, and 30 ± 4 min, respectively; P 1000 islets. In summary, the MCT method is a rapid, efficient, and economic method for isolating and purifying murine islet cell clumps. This method overcomes some of the shortcomings of conventional methods, showing a relatively higher quality and yield of islets within a shorter duration at a lower cost. Therefore, the current method provides researchers with an alternative option for islet isolation and should be widely generalized.

  14. A rapid, efficient, and economic device and method for the isolation and purification of mouse islet cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zongyi, Yin; Funian, Zou; Hao, Li; Ying, Cheng; Jialin, Zhang; Baifeng, Li

    2017-01-01

    Rapid, efficient, and economic method for the isolation and purification of islets has been pursued by numerous islet-related researchers. In this study, we compared the advantages and disadvantages of our developed patented method with those of commonly used conventional methods (Ficoll-400, 1077, and handpicking methods). Cell viability was assayed using Trypan blue, cell purity and yield were assayed using diphenylthiocarbazone, and islet function was assayed using acridine orange/ethidium bromide staining and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay-glucose stimulation testing 4 days after cultivation. The results showed that our islet isolation and purification method required 12 ± 3 min, which was significantly shorter than the time required in Ficoll-400, 1077, and HPU groups (34 ± 3, 41 ± 4, and 30 ± 4 min, respectively; P 1000 islets). In summary, the MCT method is a rapid, efficient, and economic method for isolating and purifying murine islet cell clumps. This method overcomes some of the shortcomings of conventional methods, showing a relatively higher quality and yield of islets within a shorter duration at a lower cost. Therefore, the current method provides researchers with an alternative option for islet isolation and should be widely generalized.

  15. Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Online-Offline, 1998

    1998-01-01

    This issue focuses on the theme of economics, and presents educational resources for teaching basics to children. Web sites, CD-ROMs and software, videos, books, and additional resources, as well as activities which focus on economics are described. Includes short features on related topics, and the subtopics of trade, money and banking, and…

  16. Rapid and Economic Access to Some NSAIDS-Based Bioactive Heterocycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Chavan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The use of microwave energy for the synthesis is considered as one of the alternate strategies. The present work includes the synthesis of some newer 2,5-disubstituted-1,3,4-oxadiazole analogues using both conventional and alternate rapid methods.The conventional method involves the synthesis of the target molecules by using cyclodehydrating agent like POCl3, while the other method consists of using some catalytic reagents like PbO2. Also, the short reaction time provided by microwave synthesis makes it ideal for the reaction. Hence, this project describes an efficient and operationally simple method for the microwave-assisted synthesis of some bioactive heterocycles based on NSAIDs.

  17. Economic essays on privacy, big data, and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dengler, Sebastian

    2017-01-01

    This doctoral thesis aims to advance our understanding of major topics of concern in the 21st century using theoretical as well as empirical economic methodologies. All three topics do and will continue to affect people’s lives as they can substantially shape the functioning of our societies.

  18. Household Structure and Short-Run Economic Change in Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winters, Paul; Stecklov, Guy; Todd, Jessica

    2009-01-01

    During the economic crises Nicaragua suffered between 2000 and 2002, a conditional cash transfer program targeting poor households began operating. Using panel data on 1,397 households from the program's experimentally designed evaluation, we examined the impact of the program on household structure. Our findings suggest that the program enabled…

  19. Population growth, economic security, and cultural change in wilderness counties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul A. Lorah

    2000-01-01

    A familiar version of the “jobs versus the environment” argument asserts that wilderness areas limit economic growth by locking up potentially productive natural resources. Analysis of the development paths of rural Western counties shows that this is unlikely: the presence of Wilderness is correlated with income, employment and population growth. Similarly, Wilderness...

  20. Challenges to socio-economic research in a changing society - with a special focus on Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poppel, Birger; Rasmussen, Rasmus Ole; Winther, Gorm

    2005-01-01

    The process of changes in Arctic societies has been from a cultural order to an economic order, and from a closed society based on barter and subsistence to a society based on economic exchange through monetary means. Consequently, understanding the currents of change requires a definite focus...

  1. Socio-economic changes, social capital and implications for climate change in a changing rural Nepal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Byg, Anja; Herslund, Lise Byskov

    2016-01-01

    people have engaged in high-input agriculture, business and paid employment. Diversification of livelihoods has made many people less sensitive to climate change, but this does not translate into decreased vulnerability for the community. Intensive agriculture and lower community cohesion seems...

  2. Television, disordered eating, and young women in Fiji: negotiating body image and identity during rapid social change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Anne E

    2004-12-01

    Although the relationship between media exposure and risk behavior among youth is established at a population level, the specific psychological and social mechanisms mediating the adverse effects of media on youth remain poorly understood. This study reports on an investigation of the impact of the introduction of television to a rural community in Western Fiji on adolescent ethnic Fijian girls in a setting of rapid social and economic change. Narrative data were collected from 30 purposively selected ethnic Fijian secondary school girls via semi-structured, open-ended interviews. Interviews were conducted in 1998, 3 years after television was first broadcast to this region of Fiji. Narrative data were analyzed for content relating to response to television and mechanisms that mediate self and body image in Fijian adolescents. Data in this sample suggest that media imagery is used in both creative and destructive ways by adolescent Fijian girls to navigate opportunities and conflicts posed by the rapidly changing social environment. Study respondents indicated their explicit modeling of the perceived positive attributes of characters presented in television dramas, but also the beginnings of weight and body shape preoccupation, purging behavior to control weight, and body disparagement. Response to television appeared to be shaped by a desire for competitive social positioning during a period of rapid social transition. Understanding vulnerability to images and values imported with media will be critical to preventing disordered eating and, potentially, other youth risk behaviors in this population, as well as other populations at risk.

  3. Rapid economic growth leads to boost in NO2 pollution over India, as seen from space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilboll, Andreas; Richter, Andreas; Burrows, John P.

    2016-04-01

    Over the past decades, the Indian economy has been growing at an exceptional pace. This growth was induced and accompanied by a strong increase of the Indian population. Consequently, traffic, electricity consumption, and industrial production have soared over the past decades, leading to a strong increase in fuel consumption and thus pollutant emissions. Nitrogen oxides (NO+NO2) are a major component of anthropogenic air pollution, playing key part in reaction cycles leading to the formation of tropospheric ozone. They are mainly emitted by the combustion of fossil fuels; other sources include production by lightning, biomass burning, and microbial activity in soils. Since the mid-1990s, space-borne measurements of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) have been conducted by the GOME, SCIAMACHY, GOME-2, and OMI instruments. These instruments perform hyperspectral measurements of scattered and reflected sunlight. Their measurements are then analyzed using differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) to yield vertically integrated columnar trace gas abundances. Here, we will present the results of 20 years of NO2 measurements over the Indian subcontinent. After showing the spatial distribution of NO2 pollution over India, we will present time series for individual states and urban agglomerations. These time series will then be related to various indicators of economic development. Finally, we will highlight several instances where single industrial pollution sources and their development can clearly be identified from the NO2 maps and estimate their NO2 emissions.

  4. Curioser and Curioser: New Concepts in the Rapidly Changing Landscape of Educational Administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Frances C.

    1999-01-01

    The new "Handbook" assumes that society is changing rapidly and educational administration must change with it. This article critiques chapters on four concepts: ideology, the new consumerism, social capital, and the new institutionalism. Consumerism is pure 19th-century liberalism/individualism; social capital theory and…

  5. Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armit, Ian; Swindles, Graeme T; Becker, Katharina; Plunkett, Gill; Blaauw, Maarten

    2014-12-02

    The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological (14)C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

  6. ECONOMIC CRISIS IMPACT ON CHANGES IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS OPERATING

    OpenAIRE

    Cerovic, Slobodan; Petrovic, Pero; Cerovic, Stanislav

    2013-01-01

    The emergence and deepening global economic crisis is in large part reflected in the operation of international financial institutions and their current structure. Long-term financial crisis has increased demands for decisive reform moves in operating and structure of the IMF, World Bank Group and other global and regional financial institutions. This means that so far the results of their policies are inadequate and that their role is subject to critical observation. The crisis has imposed t...

  7. Economism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Simons

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Modern society is characterised not only by a fascination with scientific technology as a means of solving all problems, especially those that stand in the way of material progress (technicism, but also by an obsessive interest in everything that has to do with money (economism or mammonism. The article discusses the relationship between technicism and economism, on the basis of their relationship to utilitarian thinking: the quest for the greatest happiness for the greatest number of people. Recent major studies of neo-liberalism (seen as an intensification of utilitarianism by Laval and Dardot are used as reference to the development of utilitarianism. It is suggested that the western view of the world, as expressed in economism and technicism, with a utilitarian ethics, features three absolutisations: those of theoretical thinking, technology and economics. In a second part, the article draws on the framework of reformational philosophy to suggest an approach that, in principle, is not marred by such absolutisations.

  8. Social and environmental determinants of child health in Mongolia across years of rapid economic growth: 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Nehal; Bolorhon, Bolormaa; Narula, Indermohan; Zhu, Shihua; Manaseki-Hollan, Semira

    2017-10-30

    To understand the effect of economic growth on health, we investigated the trend in socio-economic and regional determinants of child health in Mongolia. This Central Asian country had the fastest economic growth amongst low and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2010 and a healthcare system in transition. Data was from Mongolian multiple indicator cluster surveys (MICS) in 2000, 2005 and 2010. Child nutrition/growth was measured by height-for-age z-score (HAZ), weight-for-age z-score (WAZ), prevalence of stunted (HAZ < -2) and underweight (WAZ < -2) children. Access to health care was measured by prevalence of fully immunised children <5 years. Multivariate multi-level logistic mixed modelling was used to estimate the effect of socio-economic and environmental health determinants on each outcome in each year; 2000, 2005 and 2010. T-tests were used to measure significant change in HAZ and WAZ over the decade. Overall, from 2000 to 2010, there was a significant improvement (p < 0.001) in all three outcomes, but the effect of socio-economic factors increased on both stunting and weight. In 2000, region was a significant determinant: children living in three provinces were significantly more likely to be stunted and less likely to be immunised than Ulaanbaatar, but this was not significant by 2010. By 2010, none of the factors were significant determinants of immunisation in children. In 2000, economic status had no effect on stunting (OR = 0.91; 95%CI:0.49,1.66), however by 2010, children in the poorest economic quintile were 4 times more likely to be stunted than the richest (OR = 0.24; 95% CI:0.13,0.45; p < 0.001). The effect of maternal education on stunting prevalence continued over the 10 years, in both 2000 and 2010 children were twice as likely to be stunted if their mother had no education compared to university education (2000 OR = 0.45; 95% CI:0.28,0.73, p < 0.01,2010 OR =0.55; 95% CI:0.35,0.87, p < 0.05). Economic growth in

  9. Tajikistan - Economic and Distributional Impact of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Heltberg, Rasmus; Reva, Anna; Zaidi, Salman

    2012-01-01

    Tajikistan is highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of global climate change, as it already suffers from low agricultural productivity, water stress, and high losses from disasters. Public awareness of the multiple consequences of climate change is high, with possible impacts on health, natural disasters, and agriculture of greatest public concern. Climate change can potentially deepen ...

  10. Traps as treats: a traditional sticky rice snack persisting in rapidly changing Asian kitchens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwallier, Rachel; de Boer, Hugo J; Visser, Natasja; van Vugt, Rogier R; Gravendeel, Barbara

    2015-03-24

    An accessory to modern developing economies includes a shift from traditional, laborious lifestyles and cuisine to more sedentary careers, recreation and convenience-based foodstuffs. Similar changes in the developed western world have led to harmful health consequences. Minimization of this effect in current transitional cultures could be met by placing value on the maintenance of heritage-rich food. Vitally important to this is the preservation and dissemination of knowledge of these traditional foods. Here, we investigate the history and functionality of a traditional rice snack cooked in Nepenthes pitchers, one of the most iconic and recognizable plants in the rapidly growing economic environment of Southeast Asia. Social media was combined with traditional ethnobotanical surveys to conduct investigations throughout Malaysian Borneo. Interviews were conducted with 25 market customers, vendors and participants from various ethnical groups with an in-depth knowledge of glutinous rice cooked in pitcher plants. The acidity of pitcher fluid was measured during experimental cooking to analyze possible chemical avenues that might contribute to rice stickiness. Participants identifying the snack were almost all (96%) from indigenous Bidayuh or Kadazandusun tribal decent. They prepare glutinous rice inside pitcher traps for tradition, vessel functionality and because they thought it added fragrance and taste to the rice. The pH and chemical activity of traps analyzed suggest there is no corresponding effect on rice consistency. Harvest of pitchers does not appear to decrease the number of plants in local populations. The tradition of cooking glutinous rice snacks in pitcher plants, or peruik kera in Malay, likely carries from a time when cooking vessels were more limited, and persists only faintly in tribal culture today because of value placed on maintaining cultural heritage. Social media proved a valuable tool in our research for locating research areas and in

  11. An economic and rapid diagnostic procedure for the detection of salmonella/shigella using the polyvalent salmonella phage O-1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fey, H; Bürgi, E; Margadant, A; Boller, E

    1978-01-01

    An easy, rapid and economic two-step procedure is described for the detection of Salmonella/Shigella. In the first step the susceptibility of suspected colonies for the phage O-1 of FELIX and CALLOW is tested. Positive cultures are serologically confirmed. The test is performed on Triple Sugar Iron Agar and lasts 4-6 hrs. Phage negative cultures which are lactose- and sucrose negative are tested for lysine decarboxylase and, if Shigella is possible (i.e. in human material on primary plates), for indol production and motility in a semisolid tryptophane agar. Of 22880 Salmonella straine 21977, i.e. 96.1% were phage-sensitive. Strains belonging to certain O-groups (OE) or species are lysed at a lower percentage. However, since they are lysine decarboxylase positive they are not lost and can be submitted to a serological examination.

  12. Rapid changes in the geomagnetic field: from global to regional scales

    OpenAIRE

    Mandea, M.; Olsen, N; Monika Korte; Verbanac, G.; Y. Yahiat

    2008-01-01

    A large part of the Earth's magnetic field is generated by fluid motion in the molten outer core. Its temporal change, called secular variation, is characterized by occasional rapid changes known as geomagnetic jerks, sudden change in the second time derivative of the magnetic field. For a while, detailed studies of these phenomena suffered from the sparse distribution of geomagnetic observatories over many parts of the Earth. Recent studies on magnetic data provided by magnetic satellites, w...

  13. The economics of health and climate change: key evidence for decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hutton Guy

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In responding to the health challenges of climate change, those responsible for health policies and resource allocations need to know the resource consequences of their decisions. This article examines the availability and strength of economic evidence for policy makers to draw on in making health policy decisions. Methods Relevant literature was obtained using a Medline and INTERNET search of key terms and institutions working in health and climate change. Eighteen available economic studies are presented under three categories of economic evidence: health damage cost, health adaptation cost and health economic evaluation. Results In economic studies valuing the predicted increased mortality from climate change, the health damages represent an important fraction of overall economic losses. Similarly, when considering broader health protection measures beyond the health sector (e.g. agriculture, water supply health considerations are central. Global adaptation cost studies carried out so far indicate health sector costs of roughly US$2-5 billion annually (mid-estimates. However, these costs are expected to be an underestimate of the true costs, due to omitted health impacts, omitted economic impacts, and the costs of health actions in other sectors. No published studies compare the costs and benefits of specific health interventions to protect health from climate change. Conclusions More economic studies are needed examining the costs and benefits of adaptation measures to inform policy making. There is an urgent need for climate change-specific health economic guidelines to ensure robust methods are used, giving comparable results. Broader advocacy and focused training of decision makers is needed to increase the uptake of economic evidence in decision making. Until further climate change-specific economic studies have been conducted, decision makers should selectively draw on published studies of the costs and benefits of

  14. Does Rapid and Sustained Economic Growth Lead to Convergence in Health Resources: The Case of China From 1980 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Di; Zhang, Donglan; Huang, Jiayan; Schweitzer, Stuart

    2016-01-01

    China's rapid and sustained economic growth offers an opportunity to ask whether the advantages of growth diffuse throughout an economy, or remain localized in areas where the growth has been the greatest. A critical policy area in China has been the health system, and health inequality has become an issue that has led the government to broaden national health insurance programs. This study investigates whether health system resources and performance have converged over the past 30 years across China's 31 provinces. To examine geographic variation of health system resources and performance at the provincial level, we measure the degree of sigma convergence and beta convergence in indicators of health system resources (structure), health services utilization (process), and outcome. All data are from officially published sources: the China Health Statistics Year Book and the China Statistics Year Book. Sigma convergence is found for resource indicators, whereas it is not observed for either process or outcome indicators, indicating that disparities only narrowed in health system resources. Beta convergence is found in most indicators, except for 2 procedure indicators, reflecting that provinces with poorer resources were catching up. Convergence found in this study probably reflects the mixed outcome of government input, and market forces. Thus, left alone, the equitable distribution of health care resources may not occur naturally during a period of economic growth. Governmental and societal efforts are needed to reduce geographic health variation and promote health equity. © The Author(s) 2016.

  15. Dynamic diagnostic relationism: a new diagnostic paradigm for complex rapidly changing clinical conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynn, Lawrence A

    2014-01-01

    Decades of large, apparently well-designed clinical trials have failed to generate reproducible results in the investigation of many complex rapidly evolving and changing conditions such as sepsis. One possibility for the failure is that 20th century threshold science may be too simplistic to apply to complex rapidly changing conditions, especially those with unknown times of onset. There is an acute need to reconsider the fundamental validity of the application of simple threshold science in the study of complex rapidly evolving and changing conditions. In this letter, four potential axioms are presented which define a new science which assesses the probability of disease as a function of motion images of all the available clinical data.

  16. Techno-economical study of ethanol and biogas from spruce wood by NMMO-pretreatment and rapid fermentation and digestion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafiei, Marzieh; Karimi, Keikhosro; Taherzadeh, Mohammad J

    2011-09-01

    Given that N-methylmorpholine-N-oxide (NMMO) is a promising alternative for the pretreatment of lignocelluloses, a novel process for ethanol and biogas production from wood was developed. The solvent, NMMO, is concentrated by multistage evaporation, and the wood is pretreated with the concentrated NMMO. Thereafter, ethanol is produced by the non-isothermal simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (NSSF) method, which is a rapid and efficient process. The wastewater is treated by upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) digester for rapid production of biogas. The process was simulated by Aspen plus®. Using mechanical vapor recompression for evaporators in the pretreatment and multi-pressure distillation columns, the energy requirements for the process were minimized. The economical feasibility of the developed biorefinery for five different plant capacities was studied by Aspen Icarus Process Evaluator. The base case was designed to utilize 200,000 tons of spruce wood per year and required M€ 58.3 as the total capital investment, while the production cost of ethanol is calculated to be €/l 0.44. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Transnational Corporations, Socio-economic Change and Recurrent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murphy, Jonathan; Ackroyd, Stephen

    2013-01-01

    Purpose – The paper's aim is to consider the effects of recurrent economic crisis on the management and organisational structures of transnational companies based in the UK by considering contemporary evidence and scholarly views of the processes involved, and especially to consider the contribut......Purpose – The paper's aim is to consider the effects of recurrent economic crisis on the management and organisational structures of transnational companies based in the UK by considering contemporary evidence and scholarly views of the processes involved, and especially to consider...... the contributions of the papers that follow in this special issue of the journal. Design/methodology/approach – The paper provides a summary overview of some of the key evidence and arguments concerning the origin of recent continuing crises in Western capitalism. The paper places in context and assesses...... of financial institutions including private equity and hedge funds, and the effects of these on the various policies and priorities of the executive leaders of large businesses in such areas as human resource management and the adoption of new organisational forms. The discussion extends to the consideration...

  18. Economic evidence on the health impacts of climate change in europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutton, Guy; Menne, Bettina

    2014-01-01

    In responding to the health impacts of climate change, economic evidence and tools inform decision makers of the efficiency of alternative health policies and interventions. In a time when sweeping budget cuts are affecting all tiers of government, economic evidence on health protection from climate change spending enables comparison with other public spending. The review included 53 countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region. Literature was obtained using a Medline and Internet search of key terms in published reports and peer-reviewed literature, and from institutions working on health and climate change. Articles were included if they provided economic estimation of the health impacts of climate change or adaptation measures to protect health from climate change in the WHO European Region. Economic studies are classified under health impact cost, health adaptation cost, and health economic evaluation (comparing both costs and impacts). A total of 40 relevant studies from Europe were identified, covering the health damage or adaptation costs related to the health effects of climate change and response measures to climate-sensitive diseases. No economic evaluation studies were identified of response measures specific to the impacts of climate change. Existing studies vary in terms of the economic outcomes measured and the methods for evaluation of health benefits. The lack of robust health impact data underlying economic studies significantly affects the availability and precision of economic studies. Economic evidence in European countries on the costs of and response to climate-sensitive diseases is extremely limited and fragmented. Further studies are urgently needed that examine health impacts and the costs and efficiency of alternative responses to climate-sensitive health conditions, in particular extreme weather events (other than heat) and potential emerging diseases and other conditions threatening Europe.

  19. Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Africa | Igbokwe ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... against the climate change phenomenon and attempted to weigh in with presentation of available evidence. It finally drew from literature and reviewed possible impacts of climate change in Africa. It concluded by calling for a wakening and preparedness by African governments for possible catastrophic events rather than ...

  20. Anticipating the uncertain: economic modeling and climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Svenn

    2012-11-01

    With this thesis I wish to contribute to the understanding of how uncertainty and the anticipation of future events by economic actors affect climate policies. The thesis consists of four papers. Two papers are analytical models which explicitly consider that emissions are caused by extracting scarce fossil fuels which in the future must be replaced by clean technologies. The other two are so called numerical integrated assessment models. Such models represent the world economy, the climate system and the interactions between those two quantitatively, complementing more abstract theoretical work. Should policy makers discriminate between subsidizing renewable energy sources such as wind or solar power, and technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS)? Focusing only on the dynamic supply of fossil fuels and hence Co{sub 2}, we find here that cheaper future renewables cause extraction to speed up, lower costs of CCS may delay it. CCS hence may dampen the dynamic inefficiency caused by the absence of comprehensive climate policies today. Does it matter whether uncertainty about future damage assessment is due to scientific complexities or stems from the political process? In paper two, I find that political and scientific uncertainties have opposing effects on the incentives to investment in renewables and the extraction of fossil fuels: The prospect of scientific learning about the climate system increases investment incentives and, ceteris paribus, slows extraction down; uncertainty about future political constellations does the opposite. The optimal carbon tax under scientific uncertainty equals expected marginal damages, whereas political uncertainty demands a tax below marginal damages that decreases over time. Does uncertainty about economic growth impact optimal climate policy today? Here we are the first to consistently analyze how uncertainty about future economic growth affects optimal emission reductions and the optimal social cost of carbon. We

  1. Object-based change detection in rapid urbanization regions with remotely sensed observations: a case study of Shenzhen, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Lihuang; Dong, Guihua; Wang, Wei-Min; Yang, Lijun; Liang, Hong

    2013-10-01

    China, the most populous country on Earth, has experienced rapid urbanization which is one of the main causes of many environmental and ecological problems. Therefore, the monitoring of rapid urbanization regions and the environment is of critical importance for their sustainable development. In this study, the object-based classification is employed to detect the change of land cover in Shenzhen, which is located in South China and has been urbanized rapidly in recent three decades. First, four Landsat TM images, which were acquired on 1990, 2000 and 2010, respectively, are selected from the image database. Atmospheric corrections are conducted on these images with improved dark-object subtraction technique and surface meteorological observations. Geometric correction is processed with ground control points derived from topographic maps. Second, a region growing multi-resolution segmentation and a soft nearest neighbour classifier are used to finish object-based classification. After analyzing the fraction of difference classes over time series, we conclude that the comparison of derived land cover classes with socio-economic statistics demonstrates the strong positive correlation between built-up classes and urban population as well as gross GDP and GDPs in second and tertiary industries. Two different mechanisms of urbanization, namely new land development and redevelopment, are revealed. Consequently, we found that, the districts of Shenzhen were urbanized through different mechanisms.

  2. The Elitism Dispositif: Hierarchization, Discourses of Excellence and Organizational Change in European Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maesse, Jens

    2017-01-01

    From the 1990s onwards, economics departments in Europe have changed toward a culture of "excellence." Strong academic hierarchies and new forms of academic organization replace "institutes" and "colleges" by fully equipped "economics departments." This article seeks to demonstrate how and why…

  3. The socio-economic analysis of land use changes and soil ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mo

    University of Hohenheim, Germany: Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences in the Tropics and subtropics. Section of Farming Systems Economics and ... living standards of farmers and providing sustainable land management options in face of land use changes. Keywords: Adoption, family resource use, ...

  4. Climate Change and Costs: Investigating Students' Reasoning on Nature and Economic Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sternang, Li; Lundholm, Cecilia

    2012-01-01

    The tensions between environmental protection and economic growth are critical to future well-being, and it is therefore important to understand how young people conceptualize these tensions. The aim of the present study is to explore students' solutions to the dilemma of economic development and mitigating climate change, with regard to societal…

  5. Managing ocean environments in a changing climate: sustainability and economic perspectives

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Noone, K.J; Sumaila, U.R; Diaz, R.J

    2013-01-01

    .... The editors have engaged leading scientists in a number of areas, such as fisheries and marine ecosystems, ocean chemistry, marine biogeochemical cycling, oceans and climate change, and economics, to examine the threats to the oceans both individually and collectively, provide gross estimates of the economic and societal impacts of these threats, and deliver high-level recommendations.

  6. Monitoring changes in seismic velocity related to an ongoing rapid inflation event at Okmok volcano, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennington, Ninfa; Haney, Matt; De Angelis, Silvio; Thurber, Clifford; Freymueller, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Okmok is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian Arc. In an effort to improve our ability to detect precursory activity leading to eruption at Okmok, we monitor a recent, and possibly ongoing, GPS-inferred rapid inflation event at the volcano using ambient noise interferometry (ANI). Applying this method, we identify changes in seismic velocity outside of Okmok’s caldera, which are related to the hydrologic cycle. Within the caldera, we observe decreases in seismic velocity that are associated with the GPS-inferred rapid inflation event. We also determine temporal changes in waveform decorrelation and show a continual increase in decorrelation rate over the time associated with the rapid inflation event. Themagnitude of relative velocity decreases and decorrelation rate increases are comparable to previous studies at Piton de la Fournaise that associate such changes with increased production of volatiles and/ormagmatic intrusion within the magma reservoir and associated opening of fractures and/or fissures. Notably, the largest decrease in relative velocity occurs along the intrastation path passing nearest to the center of the caldera. This observation, along with equal amplitude relative velocity decreases revealed via analysis of intracaldera autocorrelations, suggests that the inflation sourcemay be located approximately within the center of the caldera and represent recharge of shallow magma storage in this location. Importantly, there is a relative absence of seismicity associated with this and previous rapid inflation events at Okmok. Thus, these ANI results are the first seismic evidence of such rapid inflation at the volcano.

  7. The impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030, and the potential from rapid, inclusive and climate-informed development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozenberg, J.; Hallegatte, S.

    2016-12-01

    There is a consensus on the fact that poor people are more vulnerable to climate change than the rest of the population, but, until recently, few quantified estimates had been proposed and few frameworks existed to design policies for addressing the issue. In this paper, we analyze the impacts of climate change on poverty using micro-simulation approaches. We start from household surveys that describe the current distribution of income and occupations, we project these households into the future and we look at the impacts of climate change on people's income. To project households into the future, we explore a large range of assumptions on future demographic changes (including on education), technological changes, and socio-economic trends (including redistribution policies). This approach allows us to identify the main combination of factors that lead to fast poverty reduction, and the ones that lead to high climate change impacts on the poor. Identifying these factors is critical for designing efficient policies to protect the poorest from climate change impacts and making economic growth more inclusive. Conclusions are twofold. First, by 2030 climate change can have a large impact on poverty, with between 3 and 122 million more people in poverty, but climate change remains a secondary driver of poverty trends within this time horizon. Climate change impacts do not only affect the poorest: in 2030, the bottom 40 percent lose more than 4 percent of income in many countries. The regional hotspots are Sub-Saharan Africa and - to a lesser extent - India and the rest of South Asia. The most important channel through which climate change increases poverty is through agricultural income and food prices. Second, by 2030 and in the absence of surprises on climate impacts, inclusive climate-informed development can prevent most of (but not all) the impacts on poverty. In a scenario with rapid, inclusive and climate-proof development, climate change impact on poverty is

  8. Rapid Cultural Change: A Case Study of Polyandry Marriage System among the Gurung Community from Upper Mustang, Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juddha Bahadur Gurung

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Nepal is multi ethnic, multi lingual and multi cultural country. In Upper Mustang polyandry is practiced by Loba communities. However, the condition of polyandry is dying out at present. The young are not in favor of this system. Socio-economic, political, seasonal migration, tourism and developmental factors have played crucial role in this regards. From conservation perspective polyandry played crucial role to manage local resources and in population dynamics in the past. This paper is based on field survey carried out in two different time periods (1998 and 2008 in order to compare or understand changing pattern of polyandry. In last couple of years, polyandry system has changed very rapidly in Loba communities of Upper Mustang. Rising community awareness, multiple economic opportunities, improve communication, foreign employment, modern education, open tourism, road access and other visual and in visual forces has lead society from close to open and more wider side or increase the horizon of young generation. Polyandry system is directly affected. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/dsaj.v6i0.8480 Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology Vol. 6, 2012 75-106

  9. Computed tomographic demonstration of rapid changes in fatty infiltration of the liver

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bashist, B. (Columbia-Presbyterian Medical Center, New York); Hecht, H.L.; Harely, W.D.

    1982-03-01

    Two alcoholic patients in whom computed tomography (CT) demonstrated reversal of fatty infiltration of the liver are described. The rapid reversibility of fatty infiltration can be useful in monitoring alcoholics with fatty livers. Focal fatty infiltration can mimic focal hepatic lesions and repeat scans can be utilized to assess changes in CT attenuation values when this condition is suspected.

  10. Rapidly changing mortality profiles in South Africa in its nine provinces

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    number from HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis combined by 2012.[1]. Cardiovascular ... diabetes and renal disease have increased.[1,7] Furthermore ... Creative Commons licence CC-BY-NC 4.0. Rapidly changing mortality profiles in South Africa in its nine provinces. Non-communicable disease. HIV/AIDS and TB. Other type 1.

  11. Engaging Chicago residents in climate change action: Results from Rapid Ethnographic Inquiry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynne M. Westphal; Jennifer. Hirsch

    2010-01-01

    Addressing climate change requires action at all levels of society, from neighborhood to international levels. Using Rapid Ethnography rooted in Asset Based Community Development theory, we investigated climate-friendly attitudes and behaviors in two Chicago neighborhoods in order to assist the City with implementation of its Climate Action Plan. Our research suggests...

  12. Climate change policy positive or negative economic impact? Why?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kupers, R.T.L.; Mangalagiu, D.

    2010-01-01

    ECF initiates and performs high-class research on climate change in close interaction with stakeholders. We provide a pluralistic communication platform in the emerging global field of researchers, governments, local authorities, businesses, and social movements. This field lies beyond the

  13. Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that increases the vulnerability of the built environment. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska’s public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenar...

  14. Facilitation promotes changes in leaf economics traits of a perennial forb.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Cervigón, Ana I; Linares, Juan Carlos; Aibar, Pablo; Olano, José M

    2015-09-01

    Optimal allocation of resources is crucial to maximize plant success. Plants modify their economic strategies by adjusting functional traits in response to shifts in environmental conditions. Facilitation has been recognized as a major biotic filter of trait distribution in communities, although the effect of facilitation on intraspecific variability has been scarcely explored. We evaluated intraspecific shifts in leaf functional traits of a perennial forb (Helleborus foetidus) in relation to the presence of a nurse plant (Juniperus sabina) in two sites with contrasting abiotic stress levels. The effects of abiotic (site) and biotic (juniper presence, microsite) environments on specific leaf area (SLA), leaf area (LA), lamina/petiole length ratio (LPR), intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) and leaf nutrient content (N, P and N:P) per mass were evaluated. Alleviation of drought stress associated with nurse plant presence was reflected in SLA, LA, LPR and iWUE at the high-stress site. Individuals growing in open areas showed more resource-conservative traits, supporting the argument that this strategy is advantageous in environments that limit opportunities for rapid carbon gain. Leaf nutrients were unrelated to other traits. The large amount of intraspecific variation in leaf functional traits related to facilitative processes highlights the importance of facilitation as a major source of plant trait variation. Both positive and negative biotic interactions, as well as intraspecific trait variability, should be considered in mechanistic models of plant communities' functional responses to environmental changes.

  15. Monitoring of rapid land cover changes in eastern Japan using Terra/MODIS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harada, I.; Hara, K.; Park, J.; Asanuma, I.; Tomita, M.; Hasegawa, D.; Short, K.; Fujihara, M.,

    2015-04-01

    Vegetation and land cover in Japan are rapidly changing. Abandoned farmland in 2010, for example, was 396,000 ha, or triple that of 1985. Efficient monitoring of changes in land cover is vital to both conservation of biodiversity and sustainable regional development. The Ministry of Environment is currently producing 1/25,000 scale vegetation maps for all of Japan, but the work is not yet completed. Traditional research is time consuming, and has difficulty coping with the rapid nature of change in the modern world. In this situation, classification of various scale remotely sensed data can be of premier use for efficient and timely monitoring of changes in vegetation.. In this research Terra/MODIS data is utilized to classify land cover in all of eastern Japan. Emphasis is placed on the Tohoku area, where large scale and rapid changes in vegetation have occurred in the aftermath of the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake of 11 March 2011. Large sections of coastal forest and agricultural lands, for example, were directly damaged by the earthquake or inundated by subsequent tsunami. Agricultural land was also abandoned due to radioactive contamination from the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. The classification results are interpreted within the framework of a Landscape Transformation Sere model developed by Hara et al (2010), which presents a multi-staged pattern for tracking vegetation changes under successively heavy levels of human interference. The results of the research will be useful for balancing conservation of biodiversity and ecosystems with the needs for regional redevelopment.

  16. Evaluation of economic impact of climatic change on agro-forestry systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vittorio Gallerani

    Full Text Available Climate change has a strong influence on agro-forestry systems. Present estimations evisage that changes in climate patterns and extreme events connected to climate change will have greater impacts in the future. This paper seeks to illustrate the articulation of the problems concerning the economic evaluation of climate change, with particularly attention to open problems and future lines of research. Research on this topic, though using methods and approaches consolidated in the disciplines of resource economics and evaluation, still have several open problems, particularly in the field of multidisciplinary studies of the man-environmental relations, policy evaluation and development of decision support systems for decision makers.

  17. Finance Leaders Link Climate Change to Economic Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2013-10-01

    "If we don't tackle climate change, with the kinds of disasters that are lurking in our future, a single event could reverse years of development success in individual countries," World Bank Group president Jim Yong Kim said at a 9 October forum at the start of the bank's 2013 annual meeting in Washington, D. C. The current annual cost of responding to natural disasters is about U.S. 6 billion, and that projection suggests that the cost could increase to up to 1 trillion a year by the year 2050, Kim said.

  18. Frightening music triggers rapid changes in brain monoamine receptors: a pilot PET study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ying; Chen, Qiaozhen; Du, Fenglei; Hu, Yanni; Chao, Fangfang; Tian, Mei; Zhang, Hong

    2012-10-01

    Frightening music can rapidly arouse emotions in listeners that mimic those from actual life-threatening experiences. However, studies of the underlying mechanism for perceiving danger created by music are limited. We investigated monoamine receptor changes induced by frightening music using (11)C-N-methyl-spiperone ((11)C-NMSP) PET. Ten healthy male volunteers were included, and their psychophysiologic changes were evaluated. Compared with the baseline condition, listening to frightening music caused a significant decrease in (11)C-NMSP in the right and left caudate nuclei, right limbic region, and right paralimbic region; a particularly significant decrease in the right anterior cingulate cortex; but an increase in the right frontal occipital and left temporal lobes of the cerebral cortex. Transient fright triggers rapid changes in monoamine receptors, which decrease in the limbic and paralimbic regions but increase in the cerebral cortex.

  19. Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J.; Luderer, Gunnar

    2012-01-01

    The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy. PMID:23027963

  20. Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J; Luderer, Gunnar

    2012-10-16

    The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy.

  1. Rapidly assessing changes in bone mineral balance using natural stable calcium isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Jennifer L. L.; Skulan, Joseph L.; Gordon, Gwyneth W.; Romaniello, Stephen J.; Smith, Scott M.; Anbar, Ariel D.

    2012-06-01

    The ability to rapidly detect changes in bone mineral balance (BMB) would be of great value in the early diagnosis and evaluation of therapies for metabolic bone diseases such as osteoporosis and some cancers. However, measurements of BMB are hampered by difficulties with using biochemical markers to quantify the relative rates of bone resorption and formation and the need to wait months to years for altered BMB to produce changes in bone mineral density large enough to resolve by X-ray densitometry. We show here that, in humans, the natural abundances of Ca isotopes in urine change rapidly in response to changes in BMB. In a bed rest experiment, use of high-precision isotope ratio MS allowed the onset of bone loss to be detected in Ca isotope data after about 1 wk, long before bone mineral density has changed enough to be detectable with densitometry. The physiological basis of the relationship between Ca isotopes and BMB is sufficiently understood to allow quantitative translation of changes in Ca isotope abundances to changes in bone mineral density using a simple model. The rate of change of bone mineral density inferred from Ca isotopes is consistent with the rate observed by densitometry in long-term bed rest studies. Ca isotopic analysis provides a powerful way to monitor bone loss, potentially making it possible to diagnose metabolic bone disease and track the impact of treatments more effectively than is currently possible.

  2. Understanding of Grassland Ecosystems under Climate Change and Economic Development Pressures in the Mongolia Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, J.; Chen, J.; Shan, P.; Pan, X.; Wei, Y.; Wang, M.; Xin, X.

    2011-12-01

    The land use and land cover change, especially in the form of grassland degradation, in the Mongolian Plateau, exhibited a unique spatio-temporal pattern that is a characteristic of a mixed stress from economic development and climate change of the region. The social dimension of the region played a key role in shaping the landscape and land use change, including the cultural clashes with economic development, conflicts between indigenous people and business ventures, and exogenous international influences. Various research projects have been conducted in the region to focus on physical degradation of grasslands and/or on economic development but there is a lack of understanding how the social and economic dimensions interact with grassland ecosystems and changes. In this talk, a synthesis report was made based on the most recent workshop held in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, of China, that specifically focused on climate change and grassland ecosystems. The report analyzed the degree of grassland degradation, its climate and social drivers, and coupling nature of economic development and conservation of traditional grassland values. The goal is to fully understand the socio-ecological-economic interactions that together shape the trajectory of the grassland ecosystems in the Mongolia Plateau.

  3. Economic Impact of a New Rapid PCR Assay for Detecting Influenza Virus in an Emergency Department and Hospitalized Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soto, Marcelo; Sampietro-Colom, Laura; Vilella, Anna; Pantoja, Efraín; Asenjo, María; Arjona, Ruth; Hurtado, Juan Carlos; Trilla, Antoni; Alvarez-Martínez, Míriam José; Mira, Aurea; Vila, Jordi; Marcos, María Angeles

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal influenza causes significant morbidity and mortality and has a substantial economic impact on the healthcare system. The main objective of this study was to compare the cost per patient for a rapid commercial PCR assay (Xpert® Flu) with an in-house real-time PCR test for detecting influenza virus. Community patients with influenza like-illness attending the Emergency Department (ED) as well as hospitalized patients in the Hospital Clínic of Barcelona were included. Costs were evaluated from the perspective of the hospital considering the use of resources directly related to influenza testing and treatment. For the purpose of this study, 366 and 691 patients were tested in 2013 and 2014, respectively. The Xpert® Flu test reduced the mean waiting time for patients in the ED by 9.1 hours and decreased the mean isolation time of hospitalized patients by 23.7 hours. This was associated with a 103€ (or about $113) reduction in the cost per patient tested in the ED and 64€ ($70) per hospitalized patient. Sensitivity analyses showed that Xpert® Flu is likely to be cost-saving in hospitals with different contexts and prices.

  4. Economic Valuation on Change of Tourism Quality in Rawapening, Indonesia: An Application of Random Utility Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subanti, S.; Irawan, B. R. M. B.; Sasongko, G.; Hakim, A. R.

    2017-04-01

    This study aims to determine the profit (loss) earned economic actors tourism activities if the condition or quality of tourism in Rawapening be improved (deteriorated). Change condition or quality can be seen by traveling expenses, natural environment, Japanese cultural performances, and traditional markets. The method used to measure changes in the economic benefits or economic loss with a random utility approach. The study was found that travel cost, natural environment, Japanese cultural performances, and traditional markets have significant factors about respondent preferences to choose the change of tourism condition. The value of compensation received by visitors as a result of changes in conditions improved by 2,932 billion, while the change in the condition worsens by 2,628 billion. Recommendation of this study is the local government should consider environmental factors in the formulation of tourism development in Rawapening.

  5. Rapid Hip Osteoarthritis Development in a Patient with Anterior Acetabular Cyst with Sagittal Alignment Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasuhiro Homma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Rapidly destructive coxarthrosis (RDC is rare and develops unusual clinical course. Recent studies suggest multiple possible mechanisms of the development of RDC. However the exact mechanism of RDC is still not clear. The difficulty of the study on RDC is attributed to its rareness and the fact that the data before the onset of RDC is normally unavailable. In this report, we presented the patient having the radiographic data before the onset who had rapid osteoarthritis (OA development after contralateral THA, which meets the current criteria of RDC. We thought that the increased posterior tilt of the pelvis after THA reinforced the stress concentration at pre-existed anterior acetabular cyst, thereby the destruction of the cyst was occurred. As a result the rapid OA was developed. We think that there is the case of rapid osteoarthritis developing due to alternating load concentration by posterior pelvic tilt on preexisting anterior acetabular cyst such as our patient among the cases diagnosed as RDC without any identifiable etiology. The recognition of sagittal alignment changes and anterior acetabular cyst may play important role in prediction and prevention of the rapid hip osteoarthritis development similar to RDC.

  6. Into the Green Economy – Evolutionary Perspectives on Green Economic Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Maj Munch

    The recent ‘greening’ of the economy represents possible one of the most profound examples of economic change. While the environment used to be considered a burden to business this perspec-tive has changed making ‘eco-innovation’ increasingly recognized as a driver of economic devel-opment. Evolu......The recent ‘greening’ of the economy represents possible one of the most profound examples of economic change. While the environment used to be considered a burden to business this perspec-tive has changed making ‘eco-innovation’ increasingly recognized as a driver of economic devel...... problem solving, and simultaneously, the emergence of new green selection criteria on the market. These lead to a series of interrelated eco-innovations, which gain still more force as the green market matures. In the search for the origins of paradigmatic changes, the paper suggests to focus...... technological trajectory and the changes in selection mechanisms, the paper argues, evolve to a large degree as part of interactive, creative economic processes between firms. The evolutionary capabilities perspective is important in contributing to a better micro theoretical framework of inno-vation systems...

  7. Recent changes in phytoplankton communities associated with rapid regional climate change along the western Antarctic Peninsula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montes-Hugo, Martin; Doney, Scott C; Ducklow, Hugh W; Fraser, William; Martinson, Douglas; Stammerjohn, Sharon E; Schofield, Oscar

    2009-03-13

    The climate of the western shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is undergoing a transition from a cold-dry polar-type climate to a warm-humid sub-Antarctic-type climate. Using three decades of satellite and field data, we document that ocean biological productivity, inferred from chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a), has significantly changed along the WAP shelf. Summertime surface Chl a (summer integrated Chl a approximately 63% of annually integrated Chl a) declined by 12% along the WAP over the past 30 years, with the largest decreases equatorward of 63 degrees S and with substantial increases in Chl a occurring farther south. The latitudinal variation in Chl a trends reflects shifting patterns of ice cover, cloud formation, and windiness affecting water-column mixing. Regional changes in phytoplankton coincide with observed changes in krill (Euphausia superba) and penguin populations.

  8. Changes in alcohol consumption in the 50- to 64-year-old European economically active population during an economic crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosque-Prous, Marina; Kunst, Anton E; Brugal, M Teresa; Espelt, Albert

    2017-08-01

    The aim was to compare alcohol drinking patterns in economically active people aged 50-64 years before the last economic crisis (2006) and during the crisis (2013). Cross-sectional study with data from 25 479 economically active people aged 50-64 years resident in 11 European countries who participated in wave 2 or wave 5 of the SHARE project (2006 and 2013). The outcome variables were hazardous drinking, abstention in previous 3 months and the weekly average number of drinks per drinker. The prevalence ratios of hazardous drinking and abstention, comparing the prevalence in 2013 vs. 2006, were estimated with Poisson regression models with robust variance, and the changes in the number of drinks per week with Poisson regression models. The prevalence of hazardous drinking decreased among both men (PR = 0.75; 95%CI = 0.63-0.92) and women (PR = 0.91; 95%CI = 0.72-1.15), although the latter decrease was smaller and not statistically significant. The proportion of abstainers increased among both men (PR = 1.11; 95%CI = 0.99-1.29) and women (PR = 1.18; 95%CI = 1.07-1.30), although the former increase was smaller and not statistically significant. The weekly average number of drinks per drinker decreased in men and women. The decreases in consumption were larger in Italy and Spain. From 2006 to 2013, the amount of alcohol consumed by late working age drinkers decreased in Europe, with more pronounced declines in the countries hardest hit by the economic crisis.

  9. Effects of high latitude protected areas on bird communities under rapid climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santangeli, Andrea; Rajasärkkä, Ari; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

    2017-06-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is rapidly becoming one of the main threats to biodiversity, along with other threats triggered by human-driven land-use change. Species are already responding to climate change by shifting their distributions polewards. This shift may create a spatial mismatch between dynamic species distributions and static protected areas (PAs). As protected areas represent one of the main pillars for preserving biodiversity today and in the future, it is important to assess their contribution in sheltering the biodiversity communities, they were designated to protect. A recent development to investigate climate-driven impacts on biological communities is represented by the community temperature index (CTI). CTI provides a measure of the relative temperature average of a community in a specific assemblage. CTI value will be higher for assemblages dominated by warm species compared with those dominated by cold-dwelling species. We here model changes in the CTI of Finnish bird assemblages, as well as changes in species densities, within and outside of PAs during the past four decades in a large boreal landscape under rapid change. We show that CTI has markedly increased over time across Finland, with this change being similar within and outside PAs and five to seven times slower than the temperature increase. Moreover, CTI has been constantly lower within than outside of PAs, and PAs still support communities, which show colder thermal index than those outside of PAs in the 1970s and 1980s. This result can be explained by the higher relative density of northern species within PAs than outside. Overall, our results provide some, albeit inconclusive, evidence that PAs may play a role in supporting the community of northern species. Results also suggest that communities are, however, shifting rapidly, both inside and outside of PAs, highlighting the need for adjusting conservation measures before it is too late. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Economic impacts of climate change on sustainable tuna and billfish management: Insights from the Western Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIlgorm, Alistair

    2010-07-01

    This paper examines long-term economic implications of climate change on ocean fisheries, fishing patterns and the management of both fish stocks and fishing nations. General fishery management theory identifies areas of the most immediate impact from climate change, which are assumed to be rises in sea temperatures and altered ocean current movements. The Western Pacific Ocean area is used as a case study to illustrate components of both the biophysical and economic impacts that should be considered in any policy development. These factors influence policy issues for domestic and foreign fishers, with additional risks in these fisheries due to climate change.

  11. Modelling of Efficiency Change as a Source of Economic Growth in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bezat-Jarzębowska Agnieszka

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In the paper, the subject of economic growth in agriculture was raised. One of the determinants of this process, namely an efficiency change was under the assessment. The aim of the paper was to evaluate the changes of efficiency in the Polish agriculture. In the study, a stochastic parametric production function was used.

  12. The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico: Implications for National/Regional Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Estrada, E.; Papyrakis, E.; Tol, R.S.J.; Gay-García, C.

    2013-01-01

    The recent Mexican government study, The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico (ECCM), which has largely influenced Mexico's stance on climate change issues and international negotiations, is critically reviewed. Whilst the importance of such government-supported national studies as a first attempt

  13. Changes in the value chain of scientific information: economic consequences for academic institutions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roosendaal, Hans E.; Huibers, Theo W.C.; Geurts, Petrus A.T.M.; van der Vet, P.E.

    2003-01-01

    The economic impact of information and communication technology (ICT) on the academic library and on the academic institution are discussed in terms of changes in the value chain of scientific information induced by the use of ICT. Argues that ICT is a very strong engine for change as it has the

  14. Rapid assessment of large scale vegetation change based on multi-temporal phenological analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Danlu; Guan, Yanning; Guo, Shan; Yan, Baoping; Xing, Zhi; Zhang, Chunyan; Piao, Yingchao; An, Xudong; Kang, Lihua

    2011-11-01

    Detecting vegetation change is critical for earth system and sustainability science. The existing methods, however, show several limitations, including inevitable selection of imagery acquisition dates, affection from vegetation related noise on temporal trajectory analysis, and assumptions due to vegetation classification model. This paper presents a multitemporal phenological frequency analysis over a relatively short period (MTPFA-SP) methodology to detect vegetation changes. This MTPFA-SP methodology bases on the amplitude components of fast Fourier transforming (FFT) and is implemented with two steps. First, NDVI time series over two periods are transformed with FFT into frequency domain, separately. Second, amplitude components with phenological information from Step 1 are selected for further change comparison. In this methodology, component selection shows physical meanings of natural vegetation process in frequency domain. Comparisons among those selected components help enhance the ability to rapidly detect vegetation changes. To validate this MTPFA-SP methodology, we detect changes between two periods (2001-2005 and 2006-2010) in the eastern Tibet Plateau area and make two kinds of assessments. The first is for a larger scale, including statistic analysis of altitudinal zonality and latitudinal zonality. The second assessment is for rapid detection of vegetation change location. Landsat TM image were employed to validate the result.

  15. Rapid climate changes in the tropical Atlantic region during the last deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughen, Konrad A.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Peterson, Larry C.; Trumbore, Susan

    1996-03-01

    THE climate system is capable of changing abruptly from one stable mode to another1-3. Rapid climate oscillations-in particular the Younger Dryas cold period during the last deglaciation-have long been recognized from records throughout the North Atlantic region4-14, and the distribution of these records at mostly high latitudes suggests that the changes were caused by rapid reorganizations of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation6,8,10,15. But events far from the North Atlantic region that are synchronous with the Younger Dryas16-19 raise the possibility that a more global forcing mechanism was responsible20. Here we present high-resolution records of laminated sediments of the last deglaciation from the Cariaco basin (tropical Atlantic Ocean) which show many abrupt sub-decade to century-scale oscillations in surface-ocean biological productivity that are synchronous with climate changes at high latitudes. We attribute these productivity variations to changes in or duration of up-welling rate (and hence nutrient supply) caused by changes in trade-wind strength, which is in turn influenced by the thermo-haline circulation through its effect on sea surface temperature6,21. Abrupt climate changes in the tropical Atlantic during the last deglaciation are thus consistent with a North Atlantic circulation forcing mechanism.

  16. Changes in nasal air flow and school grades after rapid maxillary expansion in oral breathing children

    OpenAIRE

    Torre, Hilda; Alarcón, Jose Antonio

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To analyse the changes in nasal air flow and school grades after rapid maxillary expansion (RME) in oral breathing children with maxillary constriction. Material and Methods: Forty-four oral breathing children (mean age 10.57 y) underwent orthodontic RME with a Hyrax screw. Forty-four age-matched children (mean age 10.64 y) with nasal physiological breathing and adequate transverse maxillary dimensions served as the control group. The maxillary widths, nasal air flow assessed via p...

  17. Environmental impacts of rapid water level changes; Miljoekonsekvenser av raske vannstandsendringer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnekleiv, Jo Vegar; Bakken, Tor Haakon; Bogen, Jim; Boensnes, Truls Erik; Elster, Margrethe; Harby, Atle; Kutznetsova, Yulia; Saltveit, Svein Jakob; Sauterleute, Julian; Stickler, Morten; Sundt, Haakon; Tjomsland, Torulv; Ugedal, Ola

    2012-07-01

    This report summarizes the state of knowledge of the environmental impacts of power driving and rapid water level changes and describes possible mitigation measures. The report assesses the environmental effects of possible increased power installation in Mauranger and Tonstad power plants, based on existing data and knowledge. At Straumsmo plants in Barduelva there are collected some physical data and the environmental impact of existing power driving is considered. (eb)

  18. PERMANENT UNEMPLOYMENT, A REFLECTION OF CHANGING THE BASIC STRUCTURE OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin DUGULEANĂ

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of labour market in an economy emphasizes the linkage between the unemployment level and the economy structure with its organization and leading mode, and the context of its growth and development. Numerous empirical analyses of unemployment show that a significant part of its level cannot be explained by the oscillations of overall economic activity, on short term. The structural unemployment and that determined by the transparency level are causes of existence of a permanent unemployment. The paper analyzes the process of jobs creation simultaneously with job destruction and emphasizes how the structure of economic activities suffer positive or negative changes during economic cycle.

  19. Instability of the socio-economic systems as a factor of their receptivity towards changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. A. Romanova

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available In this article author marks out the life phases of socio-economic systems from the point of view of theirs stability / instability, determines the correlation between life phase and receptivity degree of system to changes. They offer the order parameters of socio-economic system and assessment methods through which instability is conveyed. The suggested methods have been used for solving the problem of assessing the degree of receptivity of the regional economic systems to the currents global crisis and the following modernization process.

  20. Evaluation of rapid volume changes of substrate-adherent cells by conventional microscopy 3D imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudreault, F; Grygorczyk, R

    2004-09-01

    Precise measurement of rapid volume changes of substrate-adherent cells is essential to understand many aspects of cell physiology, yet techniques to evaluate volume changes with sufficient precision and high temporal resolution are limited. Here, we describe a novel imaging method that surveys the rapid morphology modifications of living, substrate-adherent cells based on phase-contrast, digital video microscopy. Cells grown on a glass substrate are mounted in a custom-designed, side-viewing chamber and subjected to hypotonic swelling. Side-view images of the rapidly swelling cell, and at the end of the assay, an image of the same cell viewed from a perpendicular direction through the substrate, are acquired. Based on these images, off-line reconstruction of 3D cell morphology is performed, which precisely measures cell volume, height and surface at different points during cell volume changes. Volume evaluations are comparable to those obtained by confocal laser scanning microscopy (DeltaVolume microscopy without the need for cell staining or intense illumination to monitor cell volume make this system a promising new tool to investigate the fundamentals of cell volume physiology.

  1. The Role of Economics and Democracy in Institutional Change for Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Söderbaum

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Institutional change for sustainable development does not happen by itself. Individuals and organizations function as actors to influence development processes. Reference is made to a “political economic person” (PEP guided by her/his “ideological orientation” and “political economic organization” (PEO, guided by its “mission”. Leaving present unsustainable trends behind is a matter of politics and ideology and even power positions, where democracy plays a crucial role. The perspectives of influential (and other actors are essential in facilitating (or hindering change. I will discuss ideas of the role of science in society, mainstream neoclassical economics in relation to institutional economics in the spirit of K. William Kapp and Gunnar Myrdal as well as neo-liberalism as ideology (where neoclassical economics has contributed to strengthen the legitimacy of neo-liberalism. Various aspects of inertia and flexibility in institutional change processes, such as path dependence, are discussed. Emphasis is on the role of economics and how a strengthened democracy can open the door for a degree of pluralism.

  2. Economic Restructuring and Changing Prevalence of Female-Headed Families in America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, Diane K.; Gardner, Erica L.; Lichter, Daniel T.

    1999-01-01

    Analysis of census data indicates that female-headed households increased more rapidly in nonmetro than metro counties between 1980 and 1990; industrial restructuring contributed to change in nonmetro and metro female-headed households, with changes in various industries producing different effects; and formation of female-headed households was…

  3. Protocol: a rapid and economical procedure for purification of plasmid or plant DNA with diverse applications in plant biology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Li

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Research in plant molecular biology involves DNA purification on a daily basis. Although different commercial kits enable convenient extraction of high-quality DNA from E. coli cells, PCR and agarose gel samples as well as plant tissues, each kit is designed for a particular type of DNA extraction work, and the cost of purchasing these kits over a long run can be considerable. Furthermore, a simple method for the isolation of binary plasmid from Agrobacterium tumefaciens cells with satisfactory yield is lacking. Here we describe an easy protocol using homemade silicon dioxide matrix and seven simple solutions for DNA extraction from E. coli and A. tumefaciens cells, PCR and restriction digests, agarose gel slices, and plant tissues. Compared with the commercial kits, this protocol allows rapid DNA purification from diverse sources with comparable yield and purity at negligible cost. Following this protocol, we have demonstrated: (1 DNA fragments as small as a MYC-epitope tag coding sequence can be successfully recovered from an agarose gel slice; (2 Miniprep DNA from E. coli can be eluted with as little as 5 μl water, leading to high DNA concentrations (>1 μg/μl for efficient biolistic bombardment of Arabidopsis seedlings, polyethylene glycol (PEG-mediated Arabidopsis protoplast transfection and maize protoplast electroporation; (3 Binary plasmid DNA prepared from A. tumefaciens is suitable for verification by restriction analysis without the need for large scale propagation; (4 High-quality genomic DNA is readily isolated from several plant species including Arabidopsis, tobacco and maize. Thus, the silicon dioxide matrix-based DNA purification protocol offers an easy, efficient and economical way to extract DNA for various purposes in plant research.

  4. Rapid and specific gray matter changes in M1 induced by balance training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taubert, Marco; Mehnert, Jan; Pleger, Burkhard; Villringer, Arno

    2016-06-01

    Training-induced changes in cortical structure can be observed non-invasively with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). While macroscopic changes were found mainly after weeks to several months of training in humans, imaging of motor cortical networks in animals revealed rapid microstructural alterations after a few hours of training. We used MRI to test the hypothesis of immediate and specific training-induced alterations in motor cortical gray matter in humans. We found localized increases in motor cortical thickness after 1h of practice in a complex balancing task. These changes were specific to motor cortical effector representations primarily responsible for balance control in our task (lower limb and trunk) and these effects could be confirmed in a replication study. Cortical thickness changes (i) linearly increased across the training session, (ii) occurred independent of alterations in resting cerebral blood flow and (iii) were not triggered by repetitive use of the lower limbs. Our findings show that motor learning triggers rapid and specific gray matter changes in M1. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Rapid changes in brain structure predict improvements induced by perceptual learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ditye, Thomas; Kanai, Ryota; Bahrami, Bahador; Muggleton, Neil G; Rees, Geraint; Walsh, Vincent

    2013-11-01

    Practice-dependent changes in brain structure can occur in task relevant brain regions as a result of extensive training in complex motor tasks and long-term cognitive training but little is known about the impact of visual perceptual learning on brain structure. Here we studied the effect of five days of visual perceptual learning in a motion-color conjunction search task using anatomical MRI. We found rapid changes in gray matter volume in the right posterior superior temporal sulcus, an area sensitive to coherently moving stimuli, that predicted the degree to which an individual's performance improved with training. Furthermore, behavioral improvements were also predicted by volumetric changes in an extended white matter region underlying the visual cortex. These findings point towards quick and efficient plastic neural mechanisms that enable the visual brain to deal effectively with changing environmental demands. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Aging and Wisdom: Age-related changes in economic and social decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth eLim

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available World life expectancy is increasing and many populations will begin to age rapidly. The impeding prevalence of a greater number of older people living longer lives will have significant social and economic implications. It is important to understand how older people make economic and social decisions. Aging can be associated with a ‘phenomenon of decline’ and also greater wisdom. This paper seeks to examine the relationship between wisdom and aging. It reviews and connects the behavioral sciences and neuroscience literature on age differences in the following social and economic decision making domains that represent subcomponents of wisdom: 1 prosocial behavior in experimental economic games and competitive situations, 2 resolving social conflicts, 3 emotional homeostasis, 4 self-reflection, 5 dealing effectively with uncertainty in the domains of risk, ambiguity and intertemporal choice. Overall, we find a lack of research into how older people make economic and social decisions. There is, however, some evidence that older adults outperform young adults on certain subcomponents of wisdom, but the exact relationship between old age and each subcomponent remains unclear. A better understanding of these relationships holds the potential to alleviate a wide range of mental health problems, and has broad implications for social policies aimed at the elderly.

  7. Aging and wisdom: age-related changes in economic and social decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Kenneth Teck Kiat; Yu, Rongjun

    2015-01-01

    World life expectancy is increasing and many populations will begin to age rapidly. The impeding prevalence of a greater number of older people living longer lives will have significant social and economic implications. It is important to understand how older people make economic and social decisions. Aging can be associated with a "phenomenon of decline" and also greater wisdom. This paper seeks to examine the relationship between wisdom and aging. It reviews and connects the behavioral sciences and neuroscience literature on age differences in the following social and economic decision making domains that represent subcomponents of wisdom: (1) prosocial behavior in experimental economic games and competitive situations; (2) resolving social conflicts; (3) emotional homeostasis; (4) self-reflection; (5) dealing effectively with uncertainty in the domains of risk, ambiguity and intertemporal choice. Overall, we find a lack of research into how older people make economic and social decisions. There is, however, some evidence that older adults outperform young adults on certain subcomponents of wisdom, but the exact relationship between old age and each subcomponent remains unclear. A better understanding of these relationships holds the potential to alleviate a wide range of mental health problems, and has broad implications for social policies aimed at the elderly.

  8. Is Personality Fixed? Personality Changes as Much as "Variable" Economic Factors and More Strongly Predicts Changes to Life Satisfaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, Christopher J.; Wood, Alex M.; Powdthavee, Nattavudh

    2013-01-01

    Personality is the strongest and most consistent cross-sectional predictor of high subjective well-being. Less predictive economic factors, such as higher income or improved job status, are often the focus of applied subjective well-being research due to a perception that they can change whereas personality cannot. As such there has been limited…

  9. Implementing adaptation strategies by legal, economic and planning instruments on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Albrecht, Eike; Missler-Behr, Magdalena; Schmidt, Michael; Spyra, Simon P.N. (eds.) [Brandenburg Univ. of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg (Germany)

    2014-07-01

    The causes and effects of climate change are just as varied as the proposed solutions and approaches for dealing with the problem. Given the global character of climate change, comprehensive global cooperation is called for that leads to effective and appropriate international action in accordance with the respective responsibilities. These will inevitably differ depending on the capabilities and the social and economic situations of the respective actors. The contributions in this book present a variety of ideas, approaches and tools regarding the adaptation to climate change in specific countries and regions. In addition to examining (existing) legal instruments, they also focus on the implementation of economic instruments and planning tools, as well as their (further) development. Rather than simply discussing strategies to counteract climate change by reducing emissions, the authors also search for ways of actively adapting to climate change.

  10. Changes of the agricultural enterprises economic environment originated by the agribusiness development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Věra Bečvářová

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Based upon analyses of the Common Agricultural Policy development and its economic tools reforming the process of changing is characterised there. It deals with the multifunctionality of agriculture as well as the influence of the CAP on environment of the production tasks of agriculture and food processing industry accomplishment. Paper generalises results of new trends of the agribusiness economic environment development and the opportunity of an effective utilization of production factors in agriculture. It deals with the sources and economic implications of partial enhancement of interest and redirection of support within framework and type of tools of agrarian policy. New quality of structure of relevant information needs and economic support for agricultural enterprises decision making process are pointed out.

  11. The rapid climate change-caused dichotomy on subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest in Yunnan: Reduction in habitat diversity and increase in species diversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Ren

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Yunnan's biodiversity is under considerable pressure and subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in this area have become increasingly fragmented through agriculture, logging, planting of economic plants, mining activities and changing environment. The aims of the study are to investigate climate change-induced changes of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in Yunnan and identify areas of current species richness centers for conservation preparation. Stacked species distribution models were created to generate ensemble forecasting of species distributions, alpha diversity and beta diversity for Yunnan's subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in both current and future climate scenarios. Under stacked species distribution models in rapid climate changes scenarios, changes of water-energy dynamics may possibly reduce beta diversity and increase alpha diversity. This point provides insight for future conservation of evergreen broad-leaved forest in Yunnan, highlighting the need to fully consider the problem of vegetation homogenization caused by transformation of water-energy dynamics.

  12. Safe communities in China as a strategy for injury prevention and safety promotion programmes in the era of rapid economic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shu-Mei; Dalal, Koustuv

    2013-02-01

    Due to its rapid economic development, China is facing a huge health, social, and economic burden resulting from injuries. The study's objective was to examine Safe Communities in China as a strategy for injury prevention and safety promotion programmes in the era of rapid economic growth. Literature searches in English and Chinese, which included grey literature, were performed on the Chinese Journal Full-text Search System and Medline, using the words "Safe Community", "injury", "economics", and "prevention". The results showed that the existing 35 recognized members of the International Safe Community Network have not placed due emphasis on suicide prevention, which is one of the leading problems in both rural and urban China. A few groups, such as children, the elderly, cyclists, and pedestrians, have received due emphasis, while other vulnerable groups, such as migrant workers, motorcyclists, students, players, and farmers have not received the necessary attention from the Safe Community perspective. As the evidence describes, Safe Communities in China can be a very effective strategy for injury prevention, but four aspects need to be strengthened in the future: (1) establish and strengthen the policy and regulations in terms of injury prevention at the national level; (2) create a system to involve professional organizations and personnel in projects; (3) consider the economic development status of different parts of China; and (4) intentional injury prevention should receive greater attention.

  13. Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Günther; Shah, Mahendra; Tubiello, Francesco N; van Velhuizen, Harrij

    2005-11-29

    A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological-economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5' X 5' latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change.

  14. Public policy and clean technology promotion. The synergy between environmental economics and evolutionary economics of technological change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rio Gonzalez, Pablo del [Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo (Spain). Facultad de Ciencias Juridicas y Sociales de Toledo

    2004-07-01

    Obstacles to clean technology development, innovation and diffusion are not only related to the lack of internalisation of environmental externalities in production costs, as defended by traditional environmental economics. Empirical studies show that many other obstacles prevent these technologies from penetrating the market. The relevance of these obstacles differs between sectors, firms and technologies. Consequently, a more focused approach is proposed. By taking a look at the specific, real-world barriers to clean technologies, a policy framework as well as some specific measures that target those barriers are suggested. These instruments are useful and complementary in a policy framework that, in addition to specific instruments, takes into account the influence of the style of regulation and the configuration of actors in the environmental technological change process. This paper proposes a coherent framework integrating environmental policy and technology policy instruments. This is deemed necessary in the technological transition to sustainable development. (author)

  15. Epidemics in Ming and Qing China: Impacts of changes of climate and economic well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D; Li, Guodong; Winterhalder, Bruce; Lee, Harry F

    2015-07-01

    We investigated the mechanism of epidemics with the impacts of climate change and socio-economic fluctuations in the Ming and Qing Dynasties in China (AD 1368-1901). Using long-term and high-quality datasets, this study is the first quantitative research that verifies the 'climate change → economy → epidemics' mechanism in historical China by statistical methods that include correlation analysis, Granger causality analysis, ARX, and Poisson-ARX modeling. The analysis provides the evidences that climate change could only fundamentally lead to the epidemics spread and occurrence, but the depressed economic well-being is the direct trigger of epidemics spread and occurrence at the national and long term scale in historical China. Moreover, statistical modeling shows that economic well-being is more important than population pressure in the mechanism of epidemics. However, population pressure remains a key element in determining the social vulnerability of the epidemics occurrence under climate change. Notably, the findings not only support adaptation theories but also enhance our confidence to address climatic shocks if economic buffering capacity can be promoted steadily. The findings can be a basis for scientists and policymakers in addressing global and regional environmental changes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Economic Valuation of Nontimber Forest Products under the Changing Climate in Kilombero District, Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chelestino Balama

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable collection of Nontimber Forest Products (NTFPs for trade is an appropriate measure to increase people’s adaptive capacity against adverse effects of climate change. However, information on the economic value for NTFPs for subsistence use and trade under the changing climate is inadequate, particularly in households around Iyondo Forest Reserve (IFR, in Kilombero District, Tanzania. The study identified and quantified NTFPs used for subsistence and trade, estimated its economic value, and examined factors influencing supply of NTFPs at household level. Data were collected through Focus Group Discussions, key informant interviews, questionnaire survey of 208 sample households, and spot market analysis to randomly selected NTFPs collectors, sellers, and buyers. The study identified 12 NTFPs used for subsistence and trade, which was evaluated in terms of the mean annual value per household. The mean annual value of the identified NTFPs ranged from TZS 4700 to 886 600. The estimated economic value of the studied NTFPs was TZS 51.4 billion (USD 36 million. The supply of NTFPs at household level was influenced by distance to the forest, change in forest management regime, seasonality, and change in rainfall pattern. NTFPs around IFR have high economic value which portrays the potential of developing them to enhance households’ adaptive capacity against climate change adverse effects.

  17. Development of Middle Stone Age innovation linked to rapid climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziegler, Martin; Simon, Margit H; Hall, Ian R; Barker, Stephen; Stringer, Chris; Zahn, Rainer

    2013-01-01

    The development of modernity in early human populations has been linked to pulsed phases of technological and behavioural innovation within the Middle Stone Age of South Africa. However, the trigger for these intermittent pulses of technological innovation is an enigma. Here we show that, contrary to some previous studies, the occurrence of innovation was tightly linked to abrupt climate change. Major innovational pulses occurred at times when South African climate changed rapidly towards more humid conditions, while northern sub-Saharan Africa experienced widespread droughts, as the Northern Hemisphere entered phases of extreme cooling. These millennial-scale teleconnections resulted from the bipolar seesaw behaviour of the Atlantic Ocean related to changes in the ocean circulation. These conditions led to humid pulses in South Africa and potentially to the creation of favourable environmental conditions. This strongly implies that innovational pulses of early modern human behaviour were climatically influenced and linked to the adoption of refugia.

  18. Changing arctic ecosystems—What is causing the rapid increase of snow geese in northern Alaska?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hupp, Jerry W.; Ward, David H.; Whalen, Mary E.; Pearce, John M.

    2015-09-10

    Through the Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) informs key resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information on current and future ecosystem response to a warming climate. The Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska is a key study area within the USGS CAE initiative. This region has experienced a warming trend over the past decades, leading to decreased sea ice, permafrost thaw, and an advancement of spring phenology. The number of birds on the ACP also is changing, marked by increased populations of the four species of geese that nest in the region. The Snow Goose (Chen caerulescens) is the most rapidly increasing of these species. USGS CAE research is quantifying these changes and their implications for management agencies.

  19. Bio-physical vs. Economic Uncertainty in the Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on World Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, T. W.; Lobell, D. B.

    2010-12-01

    Accumulating evidence suggests that agricultural production could be greatly affected by climate change, but there remains little quantitative understanding of how these agricultural impacts would affect economic livelihoods in poor countries. The recent paper by Hertel, Burke and Lobell (GEC, 2010) considers three scenarios of agricultural impacts of climate change, corresponding to the fifth, fiftieth, and ninety fifth percentiles of projected yield distributions for the world’s crops in 2030. They evaluate the resulting changes in global commodity prices, national economic welfare, and the incidence of poverty in a set of 15 developing countries. Although the small price changes under the medium scenario are consistent with previous findings, their low productivity scenario reveals the potential for much larger food price changes than reported in recent studies which have hitherto focused on the most likely outcomes. The poverty impacts of price changes under the extremely adverse scenario are quite heterogeneous and very significant in some population strata. They conclude that it is critical to look beyond central case climate shocks and beyond a simple focus on yields and highly aggregated poverty impacts. In this paper, we conduct a more formal, systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA) with respect to uncertainty in the biophysical impacts of climate change on agriculture, by explicitly specifying joint distributions for global yield changes - this time focusing on 2050. This permits us to place confidence intervals on the resulting price impacts and poverty results which reflect the uncertainty inherited from the biophysical side of the analysis. We contrast this with the economic uncertainty inherited from the global general equilibrium model (GTAP), by undertaking SSA with respect to the behavioral parameters in that model. This permits us to assess which type of uncertainty is more important for regional price and poverty outcomes. Finally, we undertake a

  20. Rapid Holocene coastal change revealed by high-resolution micropaleontological analysis, Pamlico Sound, North Carolina, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grand, Pre C.; Culver, S.J.; Mallinson, D.J.; Farrell, K.M.; Corbett, D.R.; Horton, B.P.; Hillier, C.; Riggs, S.R.; Snyder, S.W.; Buzas, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Foraminiferal analyses of 404 contiguous samples, supported by diatom, lithologic, geochronologic and seismic data, reveal both rapid and gradual Holocene paleoenvironmental changes in an 8.21-m vibracore taken from southern Pamlico Sound, North Carolina. Data record initial flooding of a latest Pleistocene river drainage and the formation of an estuary 9000. yr ago. Estuarine conditions were punctuated by two intervals of marine influence from approximately 4100 to 3700 and 1150 to 500. cal. yr BP. Foraminiferal assemblages in the muddy sand facies that accumulated during these intervals contain many well-preserved benthic foraminiferal species, which occur today in open marine settings as deep as the mid shelf, and significant numbers of well-preserved planktonic foraminifera, some typical of Gulf Stream waters. We postulate that these marine-influenced units resulted from temporary destruction of the southern Outer Banks barrier islands by hurricanes. The second increase in marine influence is coeval with increased rate of sea-level rise and a peak in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. This high-resolution analysis demonstrates the range of environmental variability and the rapidity of coastal change that can result from the interplay of changing climate, sea level and geomorphology in an estuarine setting. ?? 2011 University of Washington.

  1. Specific changes in rapidly transported proteins during regeneration of the goldfish optic nerve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benowitz, L I; Shashoua, V E; Yoon, M G

    1981-03-01

    Double labeling methods were used to identify changes in the complement of proteins synthesized in the retinal ganglion cells and transported down the optic nerve during the process of axonal regeneration. Eight to 62 days after goldfish underwent a unilateral optic nerve crush, one eye was labeled with [3H]-, the other with [14C]proline. Control and regenerating optic nerves were dissected out and homogenized together after 5 hr, a time which allowed us to examine selectively membrane-bound components which migrate in the rapid phase of axoplasmic transport. Proteins from the two sides were so-purified and separated by sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Analysis of the 3H and 14C incorporation patterns along the gels revealed a radical shift away from the normal labeling spectrum during regeneration, with selective changes in labeling at particular molecular weights varying over a 3-fold range. Eight days after crushing the optic nerve, the greatest increases in labeling were seen for material with apparent molecular weights of 24,000 to 27,000, 44,000, and 210,000 daltons. These peaks declined thereafter, and on days 29 to 39, the most prominent increases were at 110,000 to 140,000 daltons. These studies indicate a continuously changing pattern in the synthesis and/or degradation of proteins that are rapidly transported down the optic nerve during regeneration and point to molecular species potential significance in the establishment of the visual map upon the brain.

  2. Modulators of mercury risk to wildlife and humans in the context of rapid global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Silbergeld, Ellen K.; Basu, Niladri; Bustamante, Paco; Diaz-Barriga, Fernando; Hopkins, William A.; Kidd, Karen A.; Nyland, Jennifer F.

    2018-01-01

    Environmental mercury (Hg) contamination is an urgent global health threat. The complexity of Hg in the environment can hinder accurate determination of ecological and human health risks, particularly within the context of the rapid global changes that are altering many ecological processes, socioeconomic patterns, and other factors like infectious disease incidence, which can affect Hg exposures and health outcomes. However, the success of global Hg-reduction efforts depends on accurate assessments of their effectiveness in reducing health risks. In this paper, we examine the role that key extrinsic and intrinsic drivers play on several aspects of Hg risk to humans and organisms in the environment. We do so within three key domains of ecological and human health risk. First, we examine how extrinsic global change drivers influence pathways of Hg bioaccumulation and biomagnification through food webs. Next, we describe how extrinsic socioeconomic drivers at a global scale, and intrinsic individual-level drivers, influence human Hg exposure. Finally, we address how the adverse health effects of Hg in humans and wildlife are modulated by a range of extrinsic and intrinsic drivers within the context of rapid global change. Incorporating components of these three domains into research and monitoring will facilitate a more holistic understanding of how ecological and societal drivers interact to influence Hg health risks.

  3. Specific changes in rapidly transported proteins during regeneration of the goldfish optic nerve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benowitz, L.I.; Shashoua, V.E.; Yoon, M.G.

    1981-03-01

    Double labeling methods were used to identify changes in the complement of proteins synthesized in the retinal ganglion cells and transported down the optic nerve during the process of axonal regeneration. Eight to 62 days after goldfish underwent a unilateral optic nerve crush, one eye was labeled with (3H)-, the other with (14C)proline. Control and regenerating optic nerves were dissected out and homogenized together after 5 hr, a time which allowed us to examine selectively membrane-bound components which migrate in the rapid phase of axoplasmic transport. Proteins from the two sides were so-purified and separated by sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Analysis of the 3H and 14C incorporation patterns along the gels revealed a radical shift away from the normal labeling spectrum during regeneration, with selective changes in labeling at particular molecular weights varying over a 3-fold range. Eight days after crushing the optic nerve, the greatest increases in labeling were seen for material with apparent molecular weights of 24,000 to 27,000, 44,000, and 210,000 daltons. These peaks declined thereafter, and on days 29 to 39, the most prominent increases were at 110,000 to 140,000 daltons. These studies indicate a continuously changing pattern in the synthesis and/or degradation of proteins that are rapidly transported down the optic nerve during regeneration and point to molecular species potential significance in the establishment of the visual map upon the brain.

  4. Rapid transgenerational acclimation of a tropical reef fish to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donelson, J. M.; Munday, P. L.; McCormick, M. I.; Pitcher, C. R.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the capacity of species to acclimate and adapt to expected temperature increases is critical for making predictions about the biological impacts of global warming, yet it is one of the least certain aspects of climate change science. Tropical species are considered to be especially sensitive to climate change because they live close to their thermal maximum and exhibit limited capacity for acclimation. Here, we demonstrate that a tropical reef fish is highly sensitive to small increases in water temperature, but can rapidly acclimate over multiple generations. Acute exposure to elevated temperatures (+1.5°C and +3.0°C) predicted to occur this century caused a 15% and 30% respective decrease in individual's maximum ability to perform aerobic activities such as swimming or foraging, known as aerobic scope. However, complete compensation in aerobic scope occurred when both parents and offspring were reared throughout their lives at elevated temperature. Such acclimation could reduce the impact of warming temperatures and allow populations to persist across their current range. This study reveals the importance of transgenerational acclimation as a mechanism for coping with rapid climate change and highlights that single generation studies risk underestimating the potential of species to cope.

  5. Comparing records to understand past rapid climate change: An INTIMATE database update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kearney, Rebecca; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Staff, Richard A.; Albert, Paul G.

    2017-04-01

    Integrating multi-proxy records from ice, terrestrial and marine records enhances the understanding of the temporal and spatial variation of past rapid climatic changes globally. By handling these records on their own individual timescales and linking them through known chronological relationships (e.g. tephra, 10Be and 14C), regional comparisons can be made for these past climatic events. Furthermore, the use of time-transfer functions enables the chronological uncertainties between different archives to be quantified. The chronological database devised by the working group 1 (WG1) of INTIMATE, exclusively uses this methodology to provide a means to visualise and compare palaeoclimate records. Development of this database is ongoing, with numerous additional records being added to the database with a particular focus on European archives spanning the Late Glacial period. Here we present a new phase of data collection. Through selected cases study sites across Europe, we aim to illustrate the database as a novel tool in understanding spatial and temporal variations in rapid climatic change. Preliminary results allow questions such as time transgression and regional expressions of rapid climate change to be investigated. The development of this database will continue through additional input of raw climate proxy data, linking to other relevant databases (e.g. Fossil Pollen Database) and providing output data that can be analysed in the statistical programming language of R. A major goal of this work to is not only provide a detailed database, but allow researchers to integrate their own climate proxy data with that on the database.

  6. Climate change and macro-economic cycles in pre-industrial europe.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Pei

    Full Text Available Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency. Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales.

  7. Climate change and macro-economic cycles in pre-industrial europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D; Lee, Harry F; Li, Guodong

    2014-01-01

    Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales.

  8. Neurogenomics and the role of a large mutational target on rapid behavioral change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Craig E; Kulathinal, Rob J

    2016-11-08

    Behavior, while complex and dynamic, is among the most diverse, derived, and rapidly evolving traits in animals. The highly labile nature of heritable behavioral change is observed in such evolutionary phenomena as the emergence of converged behaviors in domesticated animals, the rapid evolution of preferences, and the routine development of ethological isolation between diverging populations and species. In fact, it is believed that nervous system development and its potential to evolve a seemingly infinite array of behavioral innovations played a major role in the successful diversification of metazoans, including our own human lineage. However, unlike other rapidly evolving functional systems such as sperm-egg interactions and immune defense, the genetic basis of rapid behavioral change remains elusive. Here we propose that the rapid divergence and widespread novelty of innate and adaptive behavior is primarily a function of its genomic architecture. Specifically, we hypothesize that the broad diversity of behavioral phenotypes present at micro- and macroevolutionary scales is promoted by a disproportionately large mutational target of neurogenic genes. We present evidence that these large neuro-behavioral targets are significant and ubiquitous in animal genomes and suggest that behavior's novelty and rapid emergence are driven by a number of factors including more selection on a larger pool of variants, a greater role of phenotypic plasticity, and/or unique molecular features present in large genes. We briefly discuss the origins of these large neurogenic genes, as they relate to the remarkable diversity of metazoan behaviors, and highlight key consequences on both behavioral traits and neurogenic disease across, respectively, evolutionary and ontogenetic time scales. Current approaches to studying the genetic mechanisms underlying rapid phenotypic change primarily focus on identifying signatures of Darwinian selection in protein-coding regions. In contrast

  9. THE EFFECT OF COASTLINE CHANGES TO LOCAL COMMUNITY’S SOCIAL-ECONOMIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. I. Hassan

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The coastal area is absolutely essential for the purposes of resident, recreation, tourism, fisheries and agriculture as a source of socio-economic development of local community. Some of the activities will affect the coastline changes. Coastline changes may occur due to two main factors include natural factors and also by the factor of human activities in coastal areas. Sea level rise, erosion and sedimentation are among the factors that can contribute to the changes in the coastline naturally, while the reclamation and development in coastal areas are factors of coastline changes due to human activities. Resident area and all activities in coastal areas will provide economic resources to the residents of coastal areas. However, coastline changes occur in the coastal areas will affect socio-economic for local community. A significant effect can be seen through destruction of infrastructure, loss of land, and destroy of crops. Batu Pahat is an area with significant changes of coastline. The changes of coastline from 1985 to 2013 can be determined by using topographical maps in 1985 and satellite images where the changes images are taken in 2011 and 2013 respectively. To identify the changes of risk areas, Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI is used to indicate vulnerability for coastal areas. This change indirectly affects the source of income in their agricultural cash crops such as oil palm and coconut. Their crops destroyed and reduced due to impact of changes in the coastline. Identification of risk coastal areas needs to be done in order for the society and local authorities to be prepared for coastline changes.

  10. Policy Change Implication Toward Integrated Wonorejo Zone as A Strategic Economic Development Zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akbar Pandu Dwinugraha

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Integrated Wonorejo Zone is one of the development zone in Lumajang Regency with significant goals to improve potensial condition in three aspect namely tourism, agriculture and SMEs. Based on RTRW in 2008-2028, which was established in 2008, the development strategy of this zone is change. Integrated Wonorejo Zone was mentioned as a Strategic Economic Development Zone. This research describe and analyse about how the implication of policy change toward Integrated Wonorejo Zone. This research using method of descriptive research with qualitative approach as well as analysis of data by John Seidel about QDA (qualitative data analysis. The result of this research explain that the policy change implication, from description, implementation and implication point of view did not give significant expectation. Key Words: Policy Change, Integrated Wonorejo Zone, Strategic Economic Development Zone.

  11. Wiki management a revolutionary new model for a rapidly changing and collaborative world

    CERN Document Server

    Collins, Rod

    2013-01-01

    We now live in a "wiki" world where mass collaboration is not only possible-it's often the best solution. Conventional management thought assumes that command-and-control is the most effective way to organize the efforts of large numbers of people, but rapid change and increasing complexity have rendered that model obsolete. As a result, most managers today lack the skills and knowledge needed to succeed in an age when networks are proving smarter and faster than hierarchies. Designing organizations for mass collaboration demands a new and very different model-wiki management.

  12. Experiences of Families Transmitting Values in a Rapidly Changing Society: Implications for Family Therapists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akyil, Yudum; Prouty, Anne; Blanchard, Amy; Lyness, Kevin

    2016-06-01

    Intergenerational value transmission affects parent-child relationships and necessitates constant negotiation in families. Families with adolescents from rapidly changing societies face unique challenges in balancing the traditional collectivistic family values that promote harmony with emerging values that promote autonomy. Using modern Turkey as an example of such a culture, the authors examine the transmission process in families that hold more traditional and collectivistic values than their adolescent children. Special consideration is given to generational and cultural differences in the autonomy and relatedness dimensions. © 2015 Family Process Institute.

  13. Economic analysis of adaptive strategies for flood risk management under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol, van der T.D.; Ierland, van E.C.; Gabbert, S.G.M.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change requires reconsideration of flood risk management strategies. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA), an economic decision-support tool, has been widely applied to assess these strategies. This paper aims to describe and discuss probabilistic extensions of CBA to identify welfare-maximising

  14. Economic values for growth and grade changes of sugar maple in the Lake States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard M. Godman; Joseph J. Mendel

    1978-01-01

    Current and expected rates of value increase over a 10-year period were developed for sawtimber-size sugar maple based on variable growth rates, expected merchantable height changes, and butt log grade improvement. These economic guides, along with silvicultural considerations, provide a value basis for selecting trees during thinning and determining final harvest...

  15. A Self-Ethnographic Investigation of Continuing Education Program in Engineering Arising from Economic Structural Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaihlavirta, Auri; Isomöttönen, Ville; Kärkkäinen, Tommi

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides a self-ethnographic investigation of a continuing education program in engineering in Central Finland. The program was initiated as a response to local economic structural change, in order to offer re-education possibilities for a higher educated workforce currently under unemployment threat. We encountered considerable…

  16. Economic factors influencing land use changes in the South-Central United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralph J. Alig; Fred C. White; Brian C. Murray

    1988-01-01

    Econometric models of land use change were estimated for two physiographic regions in the South-Central United States. Results are consistent-with the economic hierarchy of land use, with population and personal income being significant explanatory variables. Findings regarding the importance of relative agricultural and forestry market-based incomes in influencing...

  17. California Hardwood Rangeland Use and Productivity Changes, and the Economics of Regional Livestock Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerald L. Horner; James H. Cothern

    1991-01-01

    Changes in the availability, productivity and cost of hardwood rangeland affects the production and location of range-fed livestock. The California Range Livestock Model (CRLM) was developed to determine the effect of proposed policies and alternative economic conditions on the range-fed livestock industry generally and hardwood rangeland in particular. Three possible...

  18. Economic ideas and institutional change: the case of the Russian Stabilisation Fund

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dabrowska, E.; Zweynert, J.

    2015-01-01

    An intense discussion is taking place in international political economy on the influence of economic ideas on institutional change. Case studies so far have, however, mainly focused on the Western industrialised countries and research seems to be biased towards cases in which new ideas caused

  19. Rapid Economic Growth and Natural Gas Consumption Nexus: Looking forward from Perspective of 11th Malaysian Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekhet, H. A.; Yasmin, T.

    2016-03-01

    The present study investigates the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption by incorporating CO2 emissions, natural gas consumption and population in Malaysia. Annual data and F-bound test and granger causality have applied to test the existence of long run relationship between the series. The results show that variables are cointegrated for long run relationship. The results also indicate that natural gas consumption is an important contributing factor to energy demand and hence economic growth in case of Malaysia. The causality analysis highlights that the feedback hypothesis exists between economic growth and energy consumption. While, conservative hypothesis is validated between natural gas consumption and economic growth which implies that economic growth will push natural gas consumption policies in future. This study opens up new direction for policy makers to formulate a comprehensive natural gas policy to sustain environment for long span of time in case to achieve 11th MP targets.

  20. Changes in alcohol consumption in the 50- to 64-year-old European economically active population during an economic crisis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosque-Prous, Marina; Kunst, Anton E.; Brugal, M. Teresa; Espelt, Albert

    2017-01-01

    The aim was to compare alcohol drinking patterns in economically active people aged 50-64 years before the last economic crisis (2006) and during the crisis (2013). Cross-sectional study with data from 25 479 economically active people aged 50-64 years resident in 11 European countries who

  1. Rapid gene expression changes in peripheral blood lymphocytes upon practice of a comprehensive yoga program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Su; Olafsrud, Solveig Mjelstad; Meza-Zepeda, Leonardo A; Saatcioglu, Fahri

    2013-01-01

    One of the most common integrative medicine (IM) modalities is yoga and related practices. Previous work has shown that yoga may improve wellness in healthy people and have benefits for patients. However, the mechanisms of how yoga may positively affect the mind-body system are largely unknown. Here we have assessed possible rapid changes in global gene expression profiles in the peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) in healthy people that practiced either a comprehensive yoga program or a control regimen. The experimental sessions included gentle yoga postures, breathing exercises, and meditation (Sudarshan Kriya and Related Practices--SK&P) compared with a control regimen of a nature walk and listening to relaxing music. We show that the SK&P program has a rapid and significantly greater effect on gene expression in PBMCs compared with the control regimen. These data suggest that yoga and related practices result in rapid gene expression alterations which may be the basis for their longer term cell biological and higher level health effects.

  2. Rapid gene expression changes in peripheral blood lymphocytes upon practice of a comprehensive yoga program.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Su Qu

    Full Text Available One of the most common integrative medicine (IM modalities is yoga and related practices. Previous work has shown that yoga may improve wellness in healthy people and have benefits for patients. However, the mechanisms of how yoga may positively affect the mind-body system are largely unknown. Here we have assessed possible rapid changes in global gene expression profiles in the peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs in healthy people that practiced either a comprehensive yoga program or a control regimen. The experimental sessions included gentle yoga postures, breathing exercises, and meditation (Sudarshan Kriya and Related Practices--SK&P compared with a control regimen of a nature walk and listening to relaxing music. We show that the SK&P program has a rapid and significantly greater effect on gene expression in PBMCs compared with the control regimen. These data suggest that yoga and related practices result in rapid gene expression alterations which may be the basis for their longer term cell biological and higher level health effects.

  3. Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...... to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation...

  4. Changes of action strategies in metallurgical enterprises in time of economic crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Božena Gajdzik

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The topic of the article is the change in action strategy of metallurgical enterprises in time of economic slowdown. The first part of article presents results of literature analyses, opinions of scientists concerning changes in behaviours of enterprises in time of bad conjuncture. In next part of the article the author concentrates on verification of argument concerning the changes in action strategies of enterprises in Polish metallurgical sector. Shown examples of changes are confronted with literature studies presented in the first part of the article.

  5. Technological, political and economic changes and their implications for the evolution of broadcasting services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tadayoni, Reza

    2000-01-01

    The subject of this Ph.D. thesis is changes in the market for broadcasting services as a result of technological, political, and economic drivers. Broadcasting services can be categorised as a part of the ICT-based information and knowledge intensive services that have gone through radical change...... and demand sites, scarcity of transmission resources, and the historical aspects that make the development of the broadcasting service market different from other information and knowledge intensive services....

  6. Changes in head posture after rapid maxillary expansion in patients with nasopharyngeal obstruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kjurchieva-Chuchkova G

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Nasopharyngeal obstruction is an important etiologic factor in the development of an extreme vertical growth facial pattern, and insufficient transversal growth of the maxilla. The treatment outcomes associated with rapid maxillary expansion in the literature are mainly discussed in terms of changes in dentofacial morphology, without special reference to changes in the pharyngeal airway, the position of the mandible, hyoid bone and the tongue. Aim: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of rapid maxillary expansion (RME, on changes in head posture and airway dimension. Materials and methods: The cephalometric evaluation was conducted on thirty lateral cephalograms of patients with nasopharyngeal obstruction (mean age 9.11 years; standard deviation (SD ± 2.0; range 8-14 years treated with appliance for rapid maxillary expansion. Patients were randomly divided into two groups: 1 study group comprised of 15 patients treated with RME immediately after the first visit; 2 a control group comprised of 15 subjects monitored for approximately 12 months prior to commencing therapy, who became untreated controls. Lateral cephalograms, taken in the natural head position, were obtained at the first visit and 6 months later for all subjects. Six angular measurements were measured to describe craniocervical angulation, and five linear measurements were measured to describe airway dimension. Results: The investigated group treated with RME shows a statistically significant decrease in craniocervical angulation, especially at the angle of interaction between palatal plane and the tangent odontoid processus (4.07 degrees, for PP/OPT angle and angle interaction between palatal plane and the tangent of cervical vertebra (4.95 degrees for PP/CVT angle. Airway dimension in the treated group increased, especially at the levels PNS-ad1 (2.52 mm, ve-pve (2.97 mm, and uv-puv (2.88 mm. No significant changes were observed in the control group

  7. Assessment of environmental change and its socio-economic impacts in the mangrove ecological zone of the Niger Delta, Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Godstime Kadiri

    The Niger Delta, located in the central part of Southern Nigeria, is endowed with immense Mangrove resources, estimated to be the fourth largest in the world. The term Mangrove refers to salt tolerant species of trees or shrubs that grow on shores and in estuaries located in the coastal tropics and sub-tropical regions of the world. They support highly productive marine food chains. However, Mangrove ecosystems are in serious decline around the world due to the rapid increase in maritime commerce and exploration of mineral resources in the last few decades. These pressures often have immediate consequences on sensitive coastal environments and can potentially impact future human use of coastal space and resources. This dynamic process presents unique opportunities for research to explore the nature and consequences of these pressures. This dissertation focused on the Mangrove ecological zone of the Niger Delta, where resource exploitation and indigenous use of the environment are in direct conflict with important socio-economic implications. Environmental accounting metrics derived from the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework were used to assess changes in the spatial extent of the Niger Delta Mangrove ecosystem and the socio-economic impacts of the observed changes. Landsat remotely sensed satellite data from the mid-1980s through 2003 was used to assess change in the spatial extent of the Mangrove vegetation in the region. A total of 21,340 hectares of Mangrove forest was determined to be lost over the study period. Field research in the region confirmed that this loss was primarily driven by urbanization and activities of the multinational oil and gas corporations operating in the region. To estimate the socio-economic impacts of the Mangrove loss in the region, neoclassical economic valuation and participatory social valuation approaches were adopted. Results from the economic valuation revealed that the net present value of future income

  8. National policies for technical change: where are the increasing returns to economic research?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavitt, K

    1996-11-12

    Improvements over the past 30 years in statistical data, analysis, and related theory have strengthened the basis for science and technology policy by confirming the importance of technical change in national economic performance. But two important features of scientific and technological activities in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries are still not addressed adequately in mainstream economics: (i) the justification of public funding for basic research and (ii) persistent international differences in investment in research and development and related activities. In addition, one major gap is now emerging in our systems of empirical measurement-the development of software technology, especially in the service sector. There are therefore dangers of diminishing returns to the usefulness of economic research, which continues to rely completely on established theory and established statistical sources. Alternative propositions that deserve serious consideration are: (i) the economic usefulness of basic research is in the provision of (mainly tacit) skills rather than codified and applicable information; (ii) in developing and exploiting technological opportunities, institutional competencies are just as important as the incentive structures that they face; and (iii) software technology developed in traditional service sectors may now be a more important locus of technical change than software technology developed in "high-tech" manufacturing.

  9. Shared Cultural History as a Predictor of Political and Economic Changes among Nation States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Luke J; Passmore, Sam; Richard, Paul M; Gray, Russell D; Atkinson, Quentin D

    2016-01-01

    Political and economic risks arise from social phenomena that spread within and across countries. Regime changes, protest movements, and stock market and default shocks can have ramifications across the globe. Quantitative models have made great strides at predicting these events in recent decades but incorporate few explicitly measured cultural variables. However, in recent years cultural evolutionary theory has emerged as a major paradigm to understand the inheritance and diffusion of human cultural variation. Here, we combine these two strands of research by proposing that measures of socio-linguistic affiliation derived from language phylogenies track variation in cultural norms that influence how political and economic changes diffuse across the globe. First, we show that changes over time in a country's democratic or autocratic character correlate with simultaneous changes among their socio-linguistic affiliations more than with changes of spatially proximate countries. Second, we find that models of changes in sovereign default status favor including socio-linguistic affiliations in addition to spatial data. These findings suggest that better measurement of cultural networks could be profoundly useful to policy makers who wish to diversify commercial, social, and other forms of investment across political and economic risks on an international scale.

  10. Shared Cultural History as a Predictor of Political and Economic Changes among Nation States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luke J Matthews

    Full Text Available Political and economic risks arise from social phenomena that spread within and across countries. Regime changes, protest movements, and stock market and default shocks can have ramifications across the globe. Quantitative models have made great strides at predicting these events in recent decades but incorporate few explicitly measured cultural variables. However, in recent years cultural evolutionary theory has emerged as a major paradigm to understand the inheritance and diffusion of human cultural variation. Here, we combine these two strands of research by proposing that measures of socio-linguistic affiliation derived from language phylogenies track variation in cultural norms that influence how political and economic changes diffuse across the globe. First, we show that changes over time in a country's democratic or autocratic character correlate with simultaneous changes among their socio-linguistic affiliations more than with changes of spatially proximate countries. Second, we find that models of changes in sovereign default status favor including socio-linguistic affiliations in addition to spatial data. These findings suggest that better measurement of cultural networks could be profoundly useful to policy makers who wish to diversify commercial, social, and other forms of investment across political and economic risks on an international scale.

  11. Health, employment, and economic change, 1973-2009: repeated cross sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minton, Jonathan William; Pickett, Kate E; Dorling, Danny

    2012-05-09

    To see whether adverse relations between social class, health, and economic activity, observed between 1973 and 1993 and previously identified in a 1996 BMJ paper, were still apparent between 1994 and 2009 despite improvements in the general economic climate and overall population health. Replication of repeated cross sectional analysis from the original paper, using the same source (the General Household Survey) and occupation coding scheme, but extended from the period 1973-93 to 1973-2009, and including women as well as men. Men and women aged 20-59 years in each annual survey between 1973 and 2009. Change over time in class specific rates of employment, unemployment, and economic inactivity within subgroups of respondents. Overall employment rates have decreased for men of working age while increasing for working age women. For men in particular, the gradient of these changes seems to depend on occupational group. Over 37 years, the differences in occupational group specific economic inactivity and employment rates between people reporting and those not reporting a limiting long term illness has increased substantially. Between 1973 and 2009, the relation between good health and securing and sustaining employment has strengthened for both men and women. For men, this has been due to employment rates decreasing and economic inactivity rates increasing among men with poor health. For women, this has largely been due to a general trend of increased employment and reduced economic inactivity occurring among healthier women but not in women of poorer health. Some evidence suggests that, since 2005, the relation between health, employment, and economic inactivity for women in the top two occupational groups has become more like that for men, with poor health becoming associated with reducing employment rates.

  12. Changes of pulp-chamber dimensions 1 year after rapid maxillary expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baratieri, Carolina; Alves, Matheus; Mattos, Cláudia Trindade; Souza, Margareth Maria Gomes de; Ruellas, Antônio Carlos de Oliveira

    2013-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of orthopedic forces on maxillary first molars' and maxillary central incisors' pulp chambers in children having rapid maxillary expansion as the only intervention compared with children having no orthodontic intervention by using cone-beam computed tomography images. In this prospective controlled clinical study, we evaluated 60 maxillary first molars and 60 maxillary central incisors from 30 children (18 boys, 12 girls) in the mixed dentition and during the pubertal growth period. The treated group had rapid maxillary expansion with the Haas expander, followed by 6 months of retention and 6 months of follow-up out of retention; the control group had no intervention during the study. Cone-beam computed tomography scans were taken initially and 1 year after the rapid maxillary expansion active phase. Initially, a 3-dimensional scrolling in all pulp chambers of the evaluated teeth was performed with Dolphin Imaging software (version 11.0; Dolphin Imaging & Management Solutions, Chatsworth, Calif) to describe the incidence of pulp-chamber calcifications. The dimensions of the pulp chambers of the molars and incisors were also investigated. Cross-sectional and longitudinal slices were used for each molar (coronal and axial slices) and incisor (sagittal and axial slices). The area (mm(2)) was obtained from 3 slices of each kind (6 measurements for each tooth). The results suggest that rapid maxillary expansion did not induce new pulp-chamber calcification. Also, it did not interfere in normal pulp-chamber dimension changes of the anchorage molars. The pulp chamber of the central incisors can be expected to be minimally wider 1 year after the therapy. Copyright © 2013 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. People On The Move: Some Thoughts On Human Dispersal In Relation To Rapid Climatic Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, W.

    It is still generally assumed that the default situation for past humans must have been to be sedentary. That is to say, given a chance people would have settled in one area (with a good supply of resources) and established clearly-defined territories. Such concepts presuppose that much of human existence was conducted in climatic conditions sim- ilar to the relatively stable ones seen in the Holocene. What effects do rapid climatic fluctuations have upon environmental carrying capacity, and thus upon human mobil- ity and exploitation patterns? Such an approach could be called 'non-analogue', as it does not seek to impose [current] Holocene patterns upon the Pleistocene, in the same way that 'non-analogue' animal and plant communities are now routinely described for the same period. If one adopts non-analogue perspectives, perhaps one could also argue that in many cases mobility was the rule and not the exception. Turning the conventional wisdom around, we can ask why people should remain in an area. What are the characteristics of that area which could have encouraged people to become less mobile? I do not argue that all groups were mobile: some cannot have been, and not every member of other groups would have been equally mobile (differentiation on grounds of age and sex). In addition, mobility patterns must also have varied over time, although we should not necessarily expect a discernible linear trend either towards or away from greater mobility, because such behaviour operates within a climatic and environmental framework as well as a socio-economic one. If climate oscillated rapidly, it is feasible to suggest that such fluctuations affected environmental stability and thus carrying capacity. The resource species present and their availability would therefore affect the possibilities for human mobility. When discussing the possibilities for human dispersal into new regions, we essentially have a choice between two competing models: the Wave of Advance (sensu

  14. Breaking out of the economic box: energy efficiency, social rationality and non-economic drivers of behavioral change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ehrhardt-Martinez, Karen; Laitner, John A. ' Skip' (ACEEE, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, Washington, D.C. (United States))

    2009-07-01

    Energy concerns are increasingly on people's minds. According to a recent Gallup poll, nearly 30 percent of American's reported that energy prices were the most important financial problem facing their families today. But are these new concerns likely to translate into long-term behavioral changes and more energy-efficient behavior? Research suggests that it will take more than high prices to achieve maximum energy savings. People may like to think of themselves as rational economic actors, but a variety of studies by social-psychologists and behavioral economists reveal that people often act in ways that may be better described as 'socially-rational' and 'predictably irrational'. Despite these findings, many residential energy programs and most policy assessments continue to model potential energy savings as a function of existing technologies and the cost of those energy resources. This paper explores the ways in which individual behavior is shaped by the social context within which people operate and presents an alternative framework for modeling efficiency behavior. The alternative model recognizes that while individuals may not always behave in economically-rational ways, their behavior may be entirely rational from other vantage points. In fact, individuals often behave as rational social actors, determining what is and isn't 'appropriate' behavior by gleaning information from their own observations, from their peers, and from interactions within their sphere of social influence. As such, this paper explores the ways in which social rules, resources and context shape individual patterns of energy consumption. This alternative approach has important implications for program designs and policy recommendations.

  15. Ecological Pleiotropy Suppresses the Dynamic Feedback Generated by a Rapidly Changing Trait.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLong, John P

    2017-05-01

    Population dynamics may carry a signature of an ecology-evolution-ecology feedback, known as eco-evolutionary dynamics, when functionally important traits change. Given current theory, the absence of a feedback from a trait with strong links to species interactions should not occur. In a previous study with the Didinium-Paramecium predator-prey system, however, rapid and large-magnitude changes in predator cell volume occurred without any noticeable effect on the population dynamics. Here I resolve this theory-data conflict by showing that ecological pleiotropy-when a trait has more than one functional effect on an ecological process-suppresses shifts in dynamics that would arise, given the links between cell volume and the species interaction. Whether eco-evolutionary dynamics arise, therefore, depends not just on the ecology-evolution feedback but on the net effect that a trait has on different parts of the underlying interaction.

  16. Rapid directional change degrades GPS distance measurement validity during intermittent intensity running.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan C Rawstorn

    Full Text Available Use of the Global Positioning System (GPS for quantifying athletic performance is common in many team sports. The effect of running velocity on measurement validity is well established, but the influence of rapid directional change is not well understood in team sport applications. This effect was systematically evaluated using multidirectional and curvilinear adaptations of a validated soccer simulation protocol that maintained identical velocity profiles. Team sport athletes completed 90 min trials of the Loughborough Intermittent Shuttle-running Test movement pattern on curvilinear, and multidirectional shuttle running tracks while wearing a 5 Hz (with interpolated 15 Hz output GPS device. Reference total distance (13 200 m was systematically over- and underestimated during curvilinear (2.61±0.80% and shuttle (-3.17±2.46% trials, respectively. Within-epoch measurement uncertainty dispersion was widest during the shuttle trial, particularly during the jog and run phases. Relative measurement reliability was excellent during both trials (Curvilinear r = 1.00, slope = 1.03, ICC = 1.00; Shuttle r = 0.99, slope = 0.97, ICC = 0.99. Absolute measurement reliability was superior during the curvilinear trial (Curvilinear SEM = 0 m, CV = 2.16%, LOA ± 223 m; Shuttle SEM = 119 m, CV = 2.44%, LOA ± 453 m. Rapid directional change degrades the accuracy and absolute reliability of GPS distance measurement, and caution is recommended when using GPS to quantify rapid multidirectional movement patterns.

  17. MRI evaluation of body composition changes in wrestlers undergoing rapid weight loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kukidome, T; Shirai, K; Kubo, J; Matsushima, Y; Yanagisawa, O; Homma, T; Aizawa, K

    2008-10-01

    Changes in body composition of college wrestlers undergoing rapid weight reduction were evaluated over time using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). This study evaluated 12 wrestlers (male, 18-22 years of age) who participated in Japan's 2005 intercollegiate wrestling tournament. For this study, MRI (of the right femoral region and the trunk), as well as measurements of body weight, body fat percentage and body water content, were performed 1 month and 1 week prior to the weigh-in, on the day of the weigh-in, on the day of the match (after the match), and 1 week after the weigh-in. A survey of food and fluid intake was also conducted. Several variables were significantly lower on the day of the weigh-in than one month prior: body weight (pfat (pmuscle, and trunk fat; quadriceps muscle; lower subcutaneous; and food intake (pweight reduction reduced the wrestlers' cross-sectional areas of muscle and fat tissues, which tended to recover through rehydration after the weigh-in. These results suggest that rapid weight reduction of wrestlers induced changes in different regions of the body.

  18. Economic Impacts of Future Changes in the Energy System - Global Perspectives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Glynn, James; Fortes, Patrícia; Krook-Riekkola, Anna

    2015-01-01

    climate change. This chapter summarises modelling methodologies developed in the ETSAP community to assess economic impacts of decarbonising energy systems at a global level. The next chapter of this book focuses on a national perspective. The range of economic impacts is regionally dependent upon......In a climate constrained future, hybrid energy-economy model coupling gives additional insight into interregional competition, trade, industrial delocalisation and overall macroeconomic consequences of decarbonising the energy system. Decarbonising the energy system is critical in mitigating...... driven developing countries such as China and India, and fossil fuel exporting nations can expect significantly higher GDP loss of up to 5 % GDP per year by mid-century....

  19. The Influence of the Economic Crisis on EU Financial Regulations Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana Mihaela MURGESCU

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The occurrence of the global economic crisis has had a widely spread impact on national and European Union economies alike. Reactive measures were taken, on two separate directions: the increase of the fiscal incentives for the private sector (action strongly supported by the USA and Great Britain or the decrease of public expenditure and the strengthening of financial regulations (viewpoint adopted by the EU. The paper aims to analyze the impact of the economic crisis on the EU budget management (especially for years 2009-2011 and the trends of financial regulations’ change foreseen by the European Commission.

  20. Health Systems Research in a Complex and Rapidly Changing Context: Ethical Implications of Major Health Systems Change at Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGregor, Hayley; Bloom, Gerald

    2016-12-01

    This paper discusses health policy and systems research in complex and rapidly changing contexts. It focuses on ethical issues at stake for researchers working with government policy makers to provide evidence to inform major health systems change at scale, particularly when the dynamic nature of the context and ongoing challenges to the health system can result in unpredictable outcomes. We focus on situations where 'country ownership' of HSR is relatively well established and where there is significant involvement of local researchers and close ties and relationships with policy makers are often present. We frame our discussion around two country case studies with which we are familiar, namely China and South Africa and discuss the implications for conducting 'embedded' research. We suggest that reflexivity is an important concept for health system researchers who need to think carefully about positionality and their normative stance and to use such reflection to ensure that they can negotiate to retain autonomy, whilst also contributing evidence for health system change. A research process informed by the notion of reflexive practice and iterative learning will require a longitudinal review at key points in the research timeline. Such review should include the convening of a deliberative process and should involve a range of stakeholders, including those most likely to be affected by the intended and unintended consequences of change. © 2016 The Authors Developing World Bioethics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Unemployment and health selection in diverging economic conditions: Compositional changes? Evidence from 28 European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heggebø, Kristian; Dahl, Espen

    2015-11-04

    Unemployment and health selection in diverging economic conditions: Compositional changes? Evidence from 28 european countries. People with ill health tend to be overrepresented among the unemployment population. The relationship between health and unemployment might, however, be sensitive to the overall economic condition. Specifically, the health composition of the unemployment population could change dramatically when the economy takes a turn for the worse. Using EU-SILC cross sectional data from 2007 (pre-crisis) and 2011 (during crisis) and linear regression models, this paper investigates the relationship between health and unemployment probabilities under differing economic conditions in 28 European countries. The countries are classified according to (i) the level of and (ii) increase in unemployment rate (i.e. >10 percent and doubling of unemployment rate = crisis country). Firstly, the unemployment likelihood for people with ill health is remarkably stable over time in Europe: the coefficients are very similar in pre-crisis and crisis years. Secondly, people with ill health have experienced unemployment to a lesser extent than those with good health status in the crisis year (when we pool the data and compare 2007 and 2011), but only in the countries with a high and rising unemployment rate. The health composition of the unemployment population changes significantly for the better, but only in those European countries that have been severely hit by the current economic crisis.

  2. Economic consequences of epidemiological changes in diabetes in middle-income countries: the Mexican case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arredondo, Armando; Zúñiga, Alexis

    2004-01-01

    To identify the costs and economic consequences of expected changes in the demand for health care services for type 2 diabetes in the three main public institutions of the Mexican health care system. The cost evaluation method to estimate direct and indirect costs was based on instrumentation and consensus techniques. To estimate the costs and epidemiological changes for 2003-2005, three probabilistic models were constructed according to the Box-Jenkins technique. Comparing the economic impact in 2003 versus 2005 (P Social Security Institute, or Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS), and the Institute for Social Security and Services for State Workers, or Instituto de Seguridad y Servicios Sociales de los Trabajadores del Estado (ISSSTE), both of which serve the insured population. Our data suggest that changes in the demand for health care services for patients with diabetes will continue with an increasing trend, mainly in the insured population. In economic terms, the results of direct and indirect costs are one of the main challenges to be solved to decrease the economic burden that diabetes represents for the population, the health care institutions, and for society as a whole.

  3. Changing Economic Leadership : A New Benchmark of Sector Productivity in the United States and Western Europe, ca. 1910

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frankema, Ewout; Woltjer, Pieter; Smits, Jan-Pieter

    2013-01-01

    The debate concerning the exact timing and causes of changes in economic leadership constitutes one of the central themes in economic history. This study aims to improve the measurement of economic performance in the United States and Western Europe (Britain, France and the Netherlands) during the

  4. Changing Economic Leadership. A New Benchmark of Sector Productivity in the United States and Western Europe, ca. 1910

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frankema, E.H.P.; Woltjer, P.J.; Smits, J.P.

    2013-01-01

    The debate concerning the exact timing and causes of changes in economic leadership constitutes one of the central themes in economic history. This study aims to improve the measurement of economic performance in the United States and Western Europe (Britain, France and the Netherlands) during

  5. The effect of economic change and elite framing on support for welfare state retrenchment: a survey experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marx, P.; Schumacher, G.

    2016-01-01

    How do economic downturns affect citizens’ support for welfare state retrenchment? Existing observational studies fail to isolate the effect of economic conditions and the effect of elite framing of these conditions. We therefore designed a survey experiment to evaluate how economic change in

  6. Optimal climate change: economics and climate science policy histories (from heuristic to normative).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randalls, Samuel

    2011-01-01

    Historical accounts of climate change science and policy have reflected rather infrequently upon the debates, discussions, and policy advice proffered by economists in the 1980s. While there are many forms of economic analysis, this article focuses upon cost-benefit analysis, especially as adopted in the work of William Nordhaus. The article addresses the way in which climate change economics subtly altered debates about climate policy from the late 1970s through the 1990s. These debates are often technical and complex, but the argument in this article is that the development of a philosophy of climate change as an issue for cost-benefit analysis has had consequences for how climate policy is made today.

  7. Alcohol taxation, economic recession, and mortality changes in five European countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreeva, Tatiana

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Since 2008 some mortality decline is observed in several European countries including Latvia, Lithuania, and Ukraine. We hypothesized that this decline could be caused by decreased alcohol use facilitated by both economic recession and alcohol taxation. This study aimed to check this hypothesis.METHODS: Besides the abovementioned countries which suffered from the economic recession and have increased alcohol excise taxes, we considered data from the WHO-Euro mortality database for Poland which did not suffer from GDP decline and Ireland which decreased alcohol excise in 2009. Both per capita GDP growth change (from -18% in Latvia to +2% in Poland and alcohol excise change (from -20% in Ireland to +60% in Ukraine compared to 2008 rates were considered as independent variables. The outcome was percentage of real mortality decline compared to 2009 extrapolation of 2000-2008 trends, which were built using linear regression separately for major groups of death causes earlier shown to have changed in 2009. Population groups aged 30-59 were considered as those whose mortality declined most.RESULTS: Ten percent increase in alcohol excise taxes was associated with 9.4% decline in respiratory mortality from expected rate, 5.7% decline in causes of death related to nervous system, 4.9% decline in external causes of death, 4.8% decline in circulatory system deaths, 3.5% decline in infectious diseases as causes of death. Cardiovascular mortality decline was marginally associated with measurements of economic crisis (0.7% decline per 1% GDP fall.DISCUSSION: During the economic recession, the portion of all-causes mortality that has declined is most likely alcohol-related. Death causes that have mostly declined during the recession are more strongly associated with alcohol taxation than with GDP fall. Cardiovascular deaths decline related to the economic crisis could have been related to diet changes including smaller proportion of fatty and

  8. The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030 and the Potential from Rapid, Inclusive, and Climate-Informed Development

    OpenAIRE

    Hallegatte, Stephane; Rozenberg, Julie

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development in the absence of climate change in 92 countries shows that the drivers of poverty eradication differ across countries. Two representative scenarios are selected from these hundred...

  9. Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Harrison, Paula A

    2017-10-17

    Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural

  10. Economic recession (2006-2012 and changes in the health status of the Spanish population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shirley Pérez-Romero

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To analyze the relationship of mental health problems in Spanish population with the economic recession (2006-2012, and find out how it affects the self-perception of health status. Materials and methods. Cross-sectional study using the National Health Survey of Spain, 2006/2007 and 2011/2012. Using logistic regression models, three in- dicators linked to mental health and perceived health were analyzed. Results. In 2011/2012 the consumption of antianxiety medications and sleeping pills increased in men and women. Mental dysfunction increased during the economic crisis in the male population. The perception of optimal health did not suffer significantly in either men or women. Conclusions. The economic recession showed a changing relation to the mental and general health of the population, coinciding with an increase in mental health disorders, such as anxiety.

  11. Playboy Playmate curves: changes in facial and body feature preferences across social and economic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pettijohn, Terry F; Jungeberg, Brian J

    2004-09-01

    Past research has investigated ideals of beauty and how these ideals have changed across time. In the current study, facial and body characteristics of Playboy Playmates of the Year from 1960-2000 were identified and investigated to explore their relationships with U.S. social and economic factors. Playmate of the Year age, body feature measures, and facial feature measurements were correlated with a general measure of social and economic hard times. Consistent with Environmental Security Hypothesis predictions, when social and economic conditions were difficult, older, heavier, taller Playboy Playmates of the Year with larger waists, smaller eyes, larger waist-to-hip ratios, smaller bust-to-waist ratios, and smaller body mass index values were selected. These results suggest that environmental security may influence perceptions and preferences for women with certain body and facial features.

  12. The Economics of Climate Change in Kenya: Final Report submitted in advance of COP15

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Downing, Tom; Watkiss, Paul; Dyszynski, Jillian; Butterfield, Ruth; Devisscher, Tahia; Pye, Steve; Droogers, Peter; Ali, Basra; Harding, Brian; Tas, Adriaan; Blois, Mark de; Tadege, Abebe; Hunt, Alistair; Taylor, Tim; Bouma, Menno; Kovats, Sari; Maitima, Joseph; Mugatha, Simon; Kariuki, Patrick; Mariene, Lea; Worden, Jeff; Western, David; Waruingi, Lucy; Brown, Sally; Kebede, Abiy; Nicholls, Robert; Lager, Bo; Otiende, Brian; Chambwera, Muyeye; Birch, Tom; Mutimba, Stephen; Sang, Joan

    2009-12-15

    Existing climate variability has significant economic costs in Kenya. Periodic floods and droughts (extremes) cause major macro-economic costs and reductions in economic growth. Future climate change will lead to additional and potentially very large economic costs. These are uncertain. However, aggregate models indicate additional net economic costs (on top of existing climate variability) could be equivalent to a loss of almost 3% of GDP each year by 2030 in Kenya. Costs include potential threats to coastal zones (sea-level rise), health burdens, energy demand, infrastructure, water resources, agriculture and loss of ecosystem services. The study has addressed the potential impacts and economic costs in these sectors. These highlight the importance of preparing for future climate change. While it is difficult to predict effects with confidence, there is a need to plan robust strategies to prepare for the future, rather than using uncertainty as a reason for inaction. Adaptation can reduce the economic costs of climate change but it has a cost. The costs of adaptation are still emerging. A number of categories of adaptation have been identified that relate to the balance between development and climate change. An initial estimate of immediate needs for addressing current climate as well as preparing for future climate change for Kenya is USD 500 million/year (for 2012). The cost of adaptation by 2030 will increase: an upper estimate of the cost is likely to be in the range of USD 1 to 2 billion/year. The study has also prioritised early adaptation across the sectors. These studies demonstrate that adaptation has potentially very large benefits in reducing present and future damages. However, while adaptation reduces damages, it does not remove them entirely. Residual impacts in Kenya, particularly for some regions and groups are expected and need to be managed. The analysis has considered future emissions for Kenya, consistent with planned development. Emissions

  13. Change in economic difficulties and physical and mental functioning: Evidence from British and Finnish employee cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lallukka, Tea; Ferrie, Jane E; Rahkonen, Ossi; Shipley, Martin J; Pietiläinen, Olli; Kivimäki, Mika; Marmot, Michael G; Lahelma, Eero

    2013-09-01

    The main aims of this longitudinal study were to (i) examine associations between changes in economic difficulties and health functioning among middle-aged employees and (ii) assess whether the associations remained after considering conventional domains of socioeconomic position. The associations were tested in two European welfare state occupational cohorts to strengthen the evidence base and improve generalizability. Data came from two cohorts: the Finnish Helsinki Health Study (baseline 2000-2002, follow-up 2007, N = 6328) and the British Whitehall II Study (baseline 1997-1999, follow-up 2003-2004, N = 4350). Responses to the survey item "finding it hard to afford adequate food and clothes and pay bills" repeated at baseline and follow-up were used to examine persistent, increasing, and decreasing economic difficulties. Poor physical and mental health functioning were denoted as being in the lowest quartile of the Short Form 36 physical and mental component summary. Logistic regression analyses were adjusted for sex, age, childhood economic difficulties, household income at baseline and follow-up, employment status at follow-up, and baseline health functioning. We observed strong sex- and age-adjusted associations between increasing [odds ratio (OR) range 1.69-2.96] and persistent (OR range 2.54-3.21) economic difficulties and poorer physical and mental health functioning in both British and Finnish occupational cohorts. These associations remained after full adjustments. Those reporting decreasing difficulties over follow-up also had poorer functioning (OR range 1.30-1.61) compared to those who did not have difficulties at baseline, possibly reflecting residual effects of economic difficulties at baseline. Changes in economic difficulties are associated with poorer physical and mental health functioning independent of income, employment status, and baseline health functioning.

  14. Wildlife health in a rapidly changing North: focus on avian disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Hemert, Caroline R.; Pearce, John M.; Handel, Colleen M.

    2014-01-01

    Climate-related environmental changes have increasingly been linked to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife. The Arctic is facing a major ecological transition that is expected to substantially affect animal and human health. Changes in phenology or environmental conditions that result from climate warming may promote novel species assemblages as host and pathogen ranges expand to previously unoccupied areas. Recent evidence from the Arctic and subarctic suggests an increase in the spread and prevalence of some wildlife diseases, but baseline data necessary to detect and verify such changes are still lacking. Wild birds are undergoing rapid shifts in distribution and have been implicated in the spread of wildlife and zoonotic diseases. Here, we review evidence of current and projected changes in the abundance and distribution of avian diseases and outline strategies for future research. We discuss relevant climatic and environmental factors, emerging host–pathogen contact zones, the relationship between host condition and immune function, and potential wildlife and human health outcomes in northern regions.

  15. Bird mercury concentrations change rapidly as chicks age: Toxicological risk is highest at hatching and fledging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, Joshua T.; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Herzog, Mark P.

    2011-01-01

    Toxicological risk of methylmercury exposure to juvenile birds is complex due to the highly transient nature of mercury concentrations as chicks age. We examined total mercury and methylmercury concentrations in blood, liver, kidney, muscle, and feathers of 111 Forster's tern (Sterna forsteri), 69 black-necked stilt (Himantopus mexicanus), and 43 American avocet (Recurvirostra americana) chicks as they aged from hatching through postfledging at wetlands that had either low or high mercury contamination in San Francisco Bay, California. For each waterbird species, internal tissue, and wetland, total mercury and methylmercury concentrations changed rapidly as chicks aged and exhibited a quadratic, U-shaped pattern from hatching through postfledging. Mercury concentrations were highest immediately after hatching, due to maternally deposited mercury in eggs, then rapidly declined as chicks aged and diluted their mercury body burden through growth in size and mercury depuration into growing feathers. Mercury concentrations then increased during fledging when mass gain and feather growth slowed, while chicks continued to acquire dietary mercury. In contrast to mercury in internal tissues, mercury concentrations in chick feathers were highly variable and declined linearly with age. For 58 recaptured Forster's tern chicks, the proportional change in blood mercury concentration was negatively related to the proportional change in body mass, but not to the amount of feathers or wing length. Thus, mercury concentrations declined more in chicks that gained more mass between sampling events. The U-shaped pattern of mercury concentrations from hatching to fledging indicates that juvenile birds may be at highest risk to methylmercury toxicity shortly after hatching when maternally deposited mercury concentrations are still high and again after fledging when opportunities for mass dilution and mercury excretion into feathers are limited.

  16. Rapid Changes in Cortical and Subcortical Brain Regions after Early Bilateral Enucleation in the Mouse.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga O Kozanian

    Full Text Available Functional sensory and motor areas in the developing mammalian neocortex are formed through a complex interaction of cortically intrinsic mechanisms, such as gene expression, and cortically extrinsic mechanisms such as those mediated by thalamic input from the senses. Both intrinsic and extrinsic mechanisms are believed to be involved in cortical patterning and the establishment of areal boundaries in early development; however, the nature of the interaction between intrinsic and extrinsic processes is not well understood. In a previous study, we used a perinatal bilateral enucleation mouse model to test some aspects of this interaction by reweighting sensory input to the developing cortex. Visual deprivation at birth resulted in a shift of intraneocortical connections (INCs that aligned with ectopic ephrin A5 expression in the same location ten days later at postnatal day (P 10. A prevailing question remained: Does visual deprivation first induce a change in gene expression, followed by a shift in INCs, or vice versa? In the present study, we address this question by investigating the neuroanatomy and patterns of gene expression in post-natal day (P 1 and 4 mice following bilateral enucleation at birth. Our results demonstrate a rapid reduction in dorsal lateral geniculate nucleus (dLGN size and ephrin A5 gene expression 24-hours post-enucleation, with more profound effects apparent at P4. The reduced nuclear size and diminished gene expression mirrors subtle changes in ephrin A5 expression evident in P1 and P4 enucleated neocortex, 11 and 8 days prior to natural eye opening, respectively. Somatosensory and visual INCs were indistinguishable between P1 and P4 mice bilaterally enucleated at birth, indicating that perinatal bilateral enucleation initiates a rapid change in gene expression (within one day followed by an alteration of sensory INCs later on (second postnatal week. With these results, we gain a deeper understanding of how gene

  17. Combined Impacts of Medium Term Socio-Economic Changes and Climate Change on Water Resources in a Managed Mediterranean Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastassi Stefanova

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate projections agree on a dryer and warmer future for the Mediterranean. Consequently, the region is likely to face serious problems regarding water availability and quality in the future. We investigated potential climate change impacts, alone (for three scenario periods and in combination with four socio-economic scenarios (for the near future on water resources in a Mediterranean catchment, whose economy relies on irrigated agriculture and tourism. For that, the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM was applied to the drainage area of the Mar Menor coastal lagoon, using a set of 15 climate scenarios and different land use maps and management settings. We assessed the long-term average seasonal and annual changes in generated runoff, groundwater recharge and actual evapotranspiration in the catchment, as well as on water inflow and nutrients input to the lagoon. The projected average annual changes in precipitation are small for the first scenario period, and so are the simulated impacts on all investigated components, on average. The negative trend of potential climate change impacts on water resources (i.e., decrease in all analyzed components becomes pronounced in the second and third scenario periods. The applied socio-economic scenarios intensify, reduce or even reverse the climate-induced impacts, depending on the assumed land use and management changes.

  18. Rapid characterisation of vegetation structure to predict refugia and climate change impacts across a global biodiversity hotspot

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schut, A.G.T.; Wardell-Johnson, G.W.; Yates, C.J.; Keppel, G.; Baran, I.; Franklin, S.E.; Hopper, S.D.; Niel, Van K.P.; Mucina, L.; Byrne, M.

    2014-01-01

    Identification of refugia is an increasingly important adaptation strategy in conservation planning under rapid anthropogenic climate change. Granite outcrops (GOs) provide extraordinary diversity, including a wide range of taxa, vegetation types and habitats in the Southwest Australian Floristic

  19. Some Current Dimensions of the Behavioral Economics of Health-Related Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bickel, Warren K.; Moody, Lara; Higgins, Stephen T.

    2016-01-01

    Health-related behaviors such as tobacco, alcohol and other substance use, poor diet and physical inactivity, and risky sexual practices are important targets for research and intervention. Health-related behaviors are especially pertinent targets in the United States, which lags behind most other developed nations on common markers of population health. In this essay we examine the application of behavioral economics, a scientific discipline that represents the intersection of economics and psychology, to the study and promotion of health-related behavior change. More specifically, we review what we consider to be some core dimensions of this discipline when applied to the study health-related behavior change. Behavioral economics (1) provides novel conceptual systems to inform scientific understanding of health behaviors, (2) translates scientific understanding into practical and effective behavior-change interventions, (3) leverages varied aspects of behavior change beyond increases or decreases in frequency, (4) recognizes and exploits trans-disease processes and interventions, and (5) leverages technology in efforts to maximize efficacy, cost effectiveness, and reach. These dimensions are overviewed and their implications for the future of the field discussed. PMID:27283095

  20. Some current dimensions of the behavioral economics of health-related behavior change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bickel, Warren K; Moody, Lara; Higgins, Stephen T

    2016-11-01

    Health-related behaviors such as tobacco, alcohol and other substance use, poor diet and physical inactivity, and risky sexual practices are important targets for research and intervention. Health-related behaviors are especially pertinent targets in the United States, which lags behind most other developed nations on common markers of population health. In this essay we examine the application of behavioral economics, a scientific discipline that represents the intersection of economics and psychology, to the study and promotion of health-related behavior change. More specifically, we review what we consider to be some core dimensions of this discipline when applied to the study health-related behavior change. Behavioral economics (1) provides novel conceptual systems to inform scientific understanding of health behaviors, (2) translates scientific understanding into practical and effective behavior-change interventions, (3) leverages varied aspects of behavior change beyond increases or decreases in frequency, (4) recognizes and exploits trans-disease processes and interventions, and (5) leverages technology in efforts to maximize efficacy, cost effectiveness, and reach. These dimensions are overviewed and their implications for the future of the field discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Tuna Fisheries in Fiji Islands and Kiribati

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aaheim, Asbjoern; Sygna, Linda

    2000-06-01

    This paper discusses the possible economic consequences of a change in the tuna fisheries in the Pacific Ocean resulting from climate change. On the background of Lehodey's (2000) study of potential changes in the tuna fisheries, we survey possible economic impacts in terms of quantities and values and give examples of macroeconomic impacts. The two main effects of climate change on tuna fishing are likely to be a decline in the total stock and a migration of the stock westwards. This will lead to various changes in the catch in different countries. The price of the fish in the export market may also change as a result. The Pacific islands are generally dependent on fisheries, and may therefore be vulnerable to these changes, although some will probably gain while others will lose. Based on a very simple macroeconomic model, it is shown that the resulting effects for the national economy in general may diverge substantially from the expected. This applies, in particular, if the national economies are inflexible and a large part of the population relies on subsistence production, which is the case for many developing countries. (author)

  2. Economic instruments for population diet and physical activity behaviour change: a systematic scoping review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shemilt, Ian; Hollands, Gareth J; Marteau, Theresa M; Nakamura, Ryota; Jebb, Susan A; Kelly, Michael P; Suhrcke, Marc; Ogilvie, David

    2013-01-01

    Unhealthy diet and low levels of physical activity are common behavioural factors in the aetiology of many non-communicable diseases. Recent years have witnessed an upsurge of policy and research interest in the use of taxes and other economic instruments to improve population health. To assemble, configure and analyse empirical research studies available to inform the public health case for using economic instruments to promote dietary and physical activity behaviour change. We conducted a systematic scoping review of evidence for the effects of specific interventions to change, or general exposure to variations in, prices or income on dietary and physical activity behaviours and corollary outcomes. Systematic electronic searches and parallel snowball searches retrieved >1 million study records. Text mining technologies were used to prioritise title-abstract records for screening. Eligible studies were selected, classified and analysed in terms of key characteristics and principal findings, using a narrative, configuring synthesis focused on implications for policy and further research. We identified 880 eligible studies, including 192 intervention studies and 768 studies that incorporated evidence for prices or income as correlates or determinants of target outcomes. Current evidence for the effects of economic instruments and exposures on diet and physical activity is limited in quality and equivocal in terms of its policy implications. Direct evidence for the effects of economic instruments is heavily skewed towards impacts on diet, with a relative lack of evidence for impacts on physical activity. The evidence-based case for using economic instruments to promote dietary and physical activity behaviour change may be less compelling than some proponents have claimed. Future research should include measurement of people's actual behavioural responses using study designs capable of generating reliable causal inferences regarding intervention effects. Policy

  3. A Multidisciplinary, Science-Based Approach to the Economics of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlin, Alan

    2011-01-01

    Economic analyses of environmental mitigation and other interdisciplinary public policy issues can be much more useful if they critically examine what other disciplines have to say, insist on using the most relevant observational data and the scientific method, and examine lower cost alternatives to the change proposed. These general principles are illustrated by applying them to the case of climate change mitigation, one of the most interdisciplinary of public policy issues. The analysis shows how use of these principles leads to quite different conclusions than those of most previous such economic analyses, as follows: The economic benefits of reducing CO2 emissions may be about two orders of magnitude less than those estimated by most economists because the climate sensitivity factor (CSF) is much lower than assumed by the United Nations because feedback is negative rather than positive and the effects of CO2 emissions reductions on atmospheric CO2 appear to be short rather than long lasting.The costs of CO2 emissions reductions are very much higher than usually estimated because of technological and implementation problems recently identified.Geoengineering such as solar radiation management is a controversial alternative to CO2 emissions reductions that offers opportunities to greatly decrease these large costs, change global temperatures with far greater assurance of success, and eliminate the possibility of low probability, high consequence risks of rising temperatures, but has been largely ignored by economists.CO2 emissions reductions are economically unattractive since the very modest benefits remaining after the corrections for the above effects are quite unlikely to economically justify the much higher costs unless much lower cost geoengineering is used.The risk of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming appears to be so low that it is not currently worth doing anything to try to control it, including geoengineering. PMID:21695026

  4. The effects of innovative changes influence on social and economic processes of the region development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. O. Tolstykh

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Development of strategy of social and economic development of the Voronezh region till 2035 requires the careful analysis of a condition of all activities of the region, their interaction and interference. The special role in this process belongs to the higher school as the engine of knowledge, information and innovations. In case of all conservatism of an education system its task not only to give estimates and forecasts of the future, but also to serve as a leader of changes in all industries. The models realizing these tasks are a possibility of receipt of the effective instrument of increase in innovation of potential of economy of the region, forming of the environment which is adequately reflecting scientific and technical and economic challenges of modern realities and also developments of processes and technologies of transition of economy of the region to the principles of digital economy. Direct task of the higher school are increase in the amount of knowledge which is saved up by society, handling and transformation of information to knowledge, generation of new information and new knowledge, forming of the competitive specialist. In article approaches to an impact assessment of changes in the higher school on processes of social and economic development of the region, to classification of straight lines and side effects (spillover-effects in the conditions of development of programs of a strategic development of the region are considered, the model of development of the higher school taking into account spillover-effect based on the principles of digital economy is offered. For the purpose of an impact assessment of changes in the higher school on processes of social and economic development in the region the task is set to analyse influence of various factors at each other, and also on basic factors of economic growth of the region.

  5. Economic instruments for population diet and physical activity behaviour change: a systematic scoping review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian Shemilt

    Full Text Available Unhealthy diet and low levels of physical activity are common behavioural factors in the aetiology of many non-communicable diseases. Recent years have witnessed an upsurge of policy and research interest in the use of taxes and other economic instruments to improve population health.To assemble, configure and analyse empirical research studies available to inform the public health case for using economic instruments to promote dietary and physical activity behaviour change.We conducted a systematic scoping review of evidence for the effects of specific interventions to change, or general exposure to variations in, prices or income on dietary and physical activity behaviours and corollary outcomes. Systematic electronic searches and parallel snowball searches retrieved >1 million study records. Text mining technologies were used to prioritise title-abstract records for screening. Eligible studies were selected, classified and analysed in terms of key characteristics and principal findings, using a narrative, configuring synthesis focused on implications for policy and further research.We identified 880 eligible studies, including 192 intervention studies and 768 studies that incorporated evidence for prices or income as correlates or determinants of target outcomes. Current evidence for the effects of economic instruments and exposures on diet and physical activity is limited in quality and equivocal in terms of its policy implications. Direct evidence for the effects of economic instruments is heavily skewed towards impacts on diet, with a relative lack of evidence for impacts on physical activity.The evidence-based case for using economic instruments to promote dietary and physical activity behaviour change may be less compelling than some proponents have claimed. Future research should include measurement of people's actual behavioural responses using study designs capable of generating reliable causal inferences regarding intervention

  6. A Multidisciplinary, Science-Based Approach to the Economics of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan Carlin

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Economic analyses of environmental mitigation and other interdisciplinary public policy issues can be much more useful if they critically examine what other disciplines have to say, insist on using the most relevant observational data and the scientific method, and examine lower cost alternatives to the change proposed. These general principles are illustrated by applying them to the case of climate change mitigation, one of the most interdisciplinary of public policy issues. The analysis shows how use of these principles leads to quite different conclusions than those of most previous such economic analyses, as follows: The economic benefits of reducing CO2 emissions may be about two orders of magnitude less than those estimated by most economists because the climate sensitivity factor (CSF is much lower than assumed by the United Nations because feedback is negative rather than positive and the effects of CO2 emissions reductions on atmospheric CO2 appear to be short rather than long lasting. The costs of CO2 emissions reductions are very much higher than usually estimated because of technological and implementation problems recently identified. Geoengineering such as solar radiation management is a controversial alternative to CO2 emissions reductions that offers opportunities to greatly decrease these large costs, change global temperatures with far greater assurance of success, and eliminate the possibility of low probability, high consequence risks of rising temperatures, but has been largely ignored by economists. CO2 emissions reductions are economically unattractive since the very modest benefits remaining after the corrections for the above effects are quite unlikely to economically justify the much higher costs unless much lower cost geoengineering is used. The risk of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming appears to be so low that it is not currently worth doing anything to try to control it, including geoengineering.

  7. Rapid Land Cover Map Updates Using Change Detection and Robust Random Forest Classifiers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konrad J. Wessels

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper evaluated the Landsat Automated Land Cover Update Mapping (LALCUM system designed to rapidly update a land cover map to a desired nominal year using a pre-existing reference land cover map. The system uses the Iteratively Reweighted Multivariate Alteration Detection (IRMAD to identify areas of change and no change. The system then automatically generates large amounts of training samples (n > 1 million in the no-change areas as input to an optimized Random Forest classifier. Experiments were conducted in the KwaZulu-Natal Province of South Africa using a reference land cover map from 2008, a change mask between 2008 and 2011 and Landsat ETM+ data for 2011. The entire system took 9.5 h to process. We expected that the use of the change mask would improve classification accuracy by reducing the number of mislabeled training data caused by land cover change between 2008 and 2011. However, this was not the case due to exceptional robustness of Random Forest classifier to mislabeled training samples. The system achieved an overall accuracy of 65%–67% using 22 detailed classes and 72%–74% using 12 aggregated national classes. “Water”, “Plantations”, “Plantations—clearfelled”, “Orchards—trees”, “Sugarcane”, “Built-up/dense settlement”, “Cultivation—Irrigated” and “Forest (indigenous” had user’s accuracies above 70%. Other detailed classes (e.g., “Low density settlements”, “Mines and Quarries”, and “Cultivation, subsistence, drylands” which are required for operational, provincial-scale land use planning and are usually mapped using manual image interpretation, could not be mapped using Landsat spectral data alone. However, the system was able to map the 12 national classes, at a sufficiently high level of accuracy for national scale land cover monitoring. This update approach and the highly automated, scalable LALCUM system can improve the efficiency and update rate of regional land

  8. Climate change : expert opinion on the economics of policy options to address climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-05-01

    Panelists identified key strengths and limitations of alternative policy approaches that should be of assistance to the Congress in weighing the potential benefits and costs of different policies for addressing climate change. Many panelists said tha...

  9. Cone-beam computed tomography evaluation of dentoskeletal changes after asymmetric rapid maxillary expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baka, Zeliha Muge; Akin, Mehmet; Ucar, Faruk Izzet; Ileri, Zehra

    2015-01-01

    The aims of this study were to quantitatively evaluate the changes in arch widths and buccolingual inclinations of the posterior teeth after asymmetric rapid maxillary expansion (ARME) and to compare the measurements between the crossbite and the noncrossbite sides with cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT). From our clinic archives, we selected the CBCT records of 30 patients with unilateral skeletal crossbite (13 boys, 14.2 ± 1.3 years old; 17 girls, 13.8 ± 1.3 years old) who underwent ARME treatment. A modified acrylic bonded rapid maxillary expansion appliance including an occlusal locking mechanism was used in all patients. CBCT records had been taken before ARME treatment and after a 3-month retention period. Fourteen angular and 80 linear measurements were taken for the maxilla and the mandible. Frontally clipped CBCT images were used for the evaluation. Paired sample and independent sample t tests were used for statistical comparisons. Comparisons of the before-treatment and after-retention measurements showed that the arch widths and buccolingual inclinations of the posterior teeth increased significantly on the crossbite side of the maxilla and on the noncrossbite side of the mandible (P ARME treatment, the crossbite side of the maxilla and the noncrossbite side of the mandible were more affected than were the opposite sides. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  10. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... uncertainty bounds propagated through the evaluation and identify the relative contribution of inherent uncertainties in the assessment. The case study is a small urban catchment located in Skibhus, Odense where no significant city development is anticipated. Two adaptation scenarios, namely pipe enlargement...... adaptation option on a basis of assessed economic indicators, e.g. net benefits (NPV), cost-recovery period (Y) and the difference in calculated net benefits (ΔNPV) when comparing two adaptation alternatives. Pipe enlargement turned out to be more economically beneficial in comparison to local infiltration...

  11. Activity-Based Micro-pricing: Realizing Sustainable Behavior Changes through Economic Incentives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamabe, Tetsuo; Lehdonvirta, Vili; Ito, Hitoshi; Soma, Hayuru; Kimura, Hiroaki; Nakajima, Tatsuo

    In this paper, we further develop the idea of combining pervasive computing techniques with electronic payment systems to create activity-based micro-incentives. Economic incentives are an effective way to influence consumer behavior, and are used in e.g. marketing and resource coordination. Our approach allows marketers and regulators to induce consumers to perform particular actions in new application domains by attaching micro-prices to a wider range of behaviors. A key challenge is designing incentive mechanisms that result in desired behavior changes. We examine two basic incentive models. Based on the results of preliminary experiments, we discuss how economic incentives can affect consumer attitudes and lead to sustainable behavior changes.

  12. Climate change economics on a small island: new approaches for Tobago

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simpson, Murray [University of Oxford (United Kingdom); Birch, Tom

    2011-01-15

    For small islands like Tobago — that depend heavily on tourism driven by their natural 'beauty' — climate change poses a double-edged threat on supply and demand. Rising sea levels, increasing temperatures and more frequent and intense storms will damage the island's natural assets, such as coral reefs and beaches. This could have a heavy impact on tourism, which will also be affected by climate policy in 'source' countries. But what exactly will that impact be? How much will it cost? And what can be done about it? Traditional economic analysis is ill-equipped to answer these questions because it offers static and highly uncertain models and assessments of damage and loss, rather than flexible response options that consider system dynamics. We urgently need to use and expand new forms of economic analysis to better support the difficult decisions that Caribbean policymakers face as a result of climate change.

  13. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.; Sobel, A.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  14. Rapid change in the ciprofloxacin resistance pattern among Neisseria gonorrhoeae strains in Nuuk, Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skjerbæk Rolskov, Anne; Bjorn-Mortensen, Karen; Mulvad, Gert

    2015-01-01

    ProbeTec). Monitoring of GC antibiotic susceptibility by culture was introduced in Nuuk in 2012. Until 2014, no cases of ciprofloxacin-resistant GC strains were reported. In this paper, we report the finding of ciprofloxacin-resistant GC and describe the most recent incidence of GC infections...... (9%) were positive, respectively. From January to August, 6 (15%) cultures from Nuuk were ciprofloxacin resistant while in September and October, 26 (59%) were ciprofloxacin resistant (presistance. GC incidence in Nuuk...... was 3,017 per 100,000 inhabitants per year, compared to 2,491 per 100,000 inhabitants per year in the rest of Greenland. CONCLUSION: Within a short period, a rapid and dramatic change in ciprofloxacin susceptibility among GC strains isolated in Nuuk was documented and recommendation for first line...

  15. Tracking Change in rapid and eXtreme Development: A Challenge to SCM-tools?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Henrik Bærbak

    2001-01-01

    Software configuration management (SCM) has proved to be an invaluable part of developing and maintaining high quality software. The benefits are not for free however: SCM tool operations often divert your attention from your development task, sometimes you have to endure a long waiting time while...... the tool does its job, change descriptions must be memorised until your next check-in, etc. This kind of overhead and disruption does not fit well with fast-paced development processes like rapid prototyping, explorative programming, and eXtreme Programming that favour creativity, speed, and communication...... more that managerial rigour. In the cost/benefit equation the balance may tip in favour of not using any SCM tool or only using a fraction of its potential. We think SCM has something to offer such projects, and present some proposals that may allow SCM tools to better suit the characteristics of fast...

  16. Female streetwalkers' perspectives on migration and HIV/STI risks in a changing economic and social environment: a qualitative study in Shanghai, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Z Jennifer; Hu, Dier; Chang, Ruth; Zaccaro, Heather; Iguchi, Martin; Zheng, Huang; He, Na

    2015-01-01

    China's 30-year economic boom has created a unique social and economic market for commercial sex, as well as for a workforce of migrant women from rural China. This qualitative study explores the impact of the rapidly changing social and economic environment on migration patterns, knowledge of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), STI risk behaviours and health beliefs among female streetwalkers in Shanghai. Qualitative data were collected in 2010 through semi-structured in-depth interviews with 16 streetwalkers to characterise their migration passages, sexual health and behaviours, and peer networks. Many streetwalkers reported histories of childhood impoverishment, of family or partner violence or trauma, of migration consistent with the timeline and routes of economic development and of a scarcity in health, social or economic support. Their knowledge of the prevention and treatment of HIV and STIs was limited. They had little bargaining power on condom use and the majority resorted to vaginal douching and self-management with antibiotics as preventative measures. The study identifies streetwalkers' perspectives on the changing environment, their options and actions and, finally, HIV/STI risks that were unique to this hidden population.

  17. Comparison between rapid and mixed maxillary expansion through an assessment of arch changes on dental casts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grassia, Vincenzo; d'Apuzzo, Fabrizia; Jamilian, Abdolreza; Femiano, Felice; Favero, Lorenzo; Perillo, Letizia

    2015-01-01

    Aim of this retrospective observational study was to compare upper and lower dental changes in patients treated with Rapid Maxillary Expansion (RME) and Mixed Maxillary Expansion (MME), assessed by dental cast analysis. Treatment groups consisted of 42 patients: the RME group (n = 21) consisted of 13 female and 8 male subjects with the mean age of 8.8 years ± 1.37 at T0 and 9.6 years ± 1.45 at T1; the MME group (n = 21) consisted of 12 female and 9 male patients with a mean age of 8.9 years ± 2.34 at T0 and 10.5 years ± 2.08 at T1. The upper and lower arch analysis was performed on four dental bilateral landmarks, on upper and lower casts; also upper and lower arch depths were measured. The groups were compared using independent sample t-test to estimate dental changes in upper and lower arches. Before expansion treatment (T0), the groups were similar for all examined variables (p>0.05). In both RME and MME group, significant increments in all the variables for maxillary and mandibular arch widths were observed after treatment. No significant differences in maxillary and mandibular arch depths were observed at the end of treatment in both groups. An evaluation of the changes after RME and MME (T1) showed statistically significant differences in mandibular arch depth (plip bumper effects" observed in the MME protocol.

  18. Morphologic changes of the palate after rapid maxillary expansion: a 3-dimensional computed tomography evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phatouros, Andriana; Goonewardene, Mithran S

    2008-07-01

    The purpose of this retrospective study was to estimate the area change of the palate after rapid maxillary expansion (RME) in the early mixed dentition stage by using a 3-dimensional (3D) helical computed tomography (CT) scanning technique. In addition, linear changes in the maxillary arch were evaluated. The treated sample consisted of 43 children (mean age, 9 years 1 month) treated with a bonded RME appliance. The untreated control group consisted of 7 children (mean age, 9 years 3 months). Pretreatment and posttreatment dental casts were evaluated by using 3D helical CT scanning procedures. The Student t test was used to compare the linear, area, and angular differences between the treatment times. RME produced clinically significant increases in interdental widths across the canines, the deciduous first molars, and the permanent first molars in the maxillary arch. Significant increases in cross-sectional area were observed across the permanent first molars (15.3 mm(2)). There was marked variability in the buccal tipping of the permanent first molars. Three-dimensional helical CT scanning is an accurate and cost-effective method of assessing dental cast morphologic changes. It can also provide fast and accurate data acquisition and subsequent analysis.

  19. Energy Transitions, Economic Growth and Structural Change: Portugal in a Long-run Comparative Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Henriques, Sofia

    2011-01-01

    This book analyses, in an international comparative context, Portugal´s energy transition from organic sources to fossil fuels in the period 1856-2006. It investigates the role that energy played in the industrialization of the country and how the relationship between energy and economic growth changed with the transition from an industrial to a service society. A unique dataset of energy quantities and prices reveals that Portugal´s transition to fossil fuels and high-energy quantities wa...

  20. A reformulation of the Cost Plus Net Value Change (C+NVC) model of wildfire economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey H. Donovan; Douglas B. Rideout

    2003-01-01

    The Cost plus Net Value Change (C+NVC) model provides the theoretical foundation for wildland fire economics and provides the basis for the National Fire Management Analysis System (NFMAS). The C+NVC model is based on the earlier least Cost plus Loss model (LC+L) expressed by Sparhawk (1925). Mathematical and graphical analysis of the LC+L model illustrates two errors...

  1. The water framework directive: A new directive for a changing social, political and economic European Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Kaika, Maria

    2003-01-01

    This article examines the intricate process of developing the European Union's Water Framework Directive. It sees the Directive as a response to recent economic, political and social changes related to water management, including the shift from government to governance, the liberalization of water markets and the emergence of a new set of institutions, actors, etc. and their respective relations (i.e. social capital). The article focuses on the key points of disagreement between the Council o...

  2. New insights from coral growth band studies in an era of rapid environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lough, Janice M.; Cooper, Timothy F.

    2011-10-01

    The rapid formation of calcium carbonate coral skeletons (calcification) fuelled by the coral-algal symbiosis is the backbone of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, the efficacy of calcification is measurably influenced by the sea's physico-chemical environment, which is changing rapidly. Warming oceans have already led to increased frequency and severity of coral bleaching, and ocean acidification has a demonstrable potential to cause reduced rates of calcification. There is now general agreement that ocean warming and acidification are attributable to human activities increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and the large part of the extra carbon dioxide (the main greenhouse gas) that is absorbed by oceans. Certain massive corals provide historical perspectives on calcification through the presence of dateable annual density banding patterns. Each band is a page in an environmental archive that reveals past responses of growth (linear extension, skeletal density and calcification rate) and provides a basis for prediction of future of coral growth. A second major line of research focuses on the measurement of various geochemical tracers incorporated into the growth bands, allowing the reconstruction of past marine climate conditions (i.e. palaeoclimatology). Here, we focus on the structural properties of the annual density bands themselves (viz. density; linear extension), exploring their utility in providing both perspectives on the past and pointers to the future of calcification on coral reefs. We conclude that these types of coral growth records, though relatively neglected in recent years compared to the geochemical studies, remain immensely valuable aids to unravelling the consequences of anthropogenic climate change on coral reefs. Moreover, an understanding of coral growth processes is an essential pre-requisite for proper interpretation of studies of geochemical tracers in corals.

  3. Rapid change in articulatory lip movement induced by preceding auditory feedback during production of bilabial plosives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mochida, Takemi; Gomi, Hiroaki; Kashino, Makio

    2010-11-08

    There has been plentiful evidence of kinesthetically induced rapid compensation for unanticipated perturbation in speech articulatory movements. However, the role of auditory information in stabilizing articulation has been little studied except for the control of voice fundamental frequency, voice amplitude and vowel formant frequencies. Although the influence of auditory information on the articulatory control process is evident in unintended speech errors caused by delayed auditory feedback, the direct and immediate effect of auditory alteration on the movements of articulators has not been clarified. This work examined whether temporal changes in the auditory feedback of bilabial plosives immediately affects the subsequent lip movement. We conducted experiments with an auditory feedback alteration system that enabled us to replace or block speech sounds in real time. Participants were asked to produce the syllable /pa/ repeatedly at a constant rate. During the repetition, normal auditory feedback was interrupted, and one of three pre-recorded syllables /pa/, /Φa/, or /pi/, spoken by the same participant, was presented once at a different timing from the anticipated production onset, while no feedback was presented for subsequent repetitions. Comparisons of the labial distance trajectories under altered and normal feedback conditions indicated that the movement quickened during the short period immediately after the alteration onset, when /pa/ was presented 50 ms before the expected timing. Such change was not significant under other feedback conditions we tested. The earlier articulation rapidly induced by the progressive auditory input suggests that a compensatory mechanism helps to maintain a constant speech rate by detecting errors between the internally predicted and actually provided auditory information associated with self movement. The timing- and context-dependent effects of feedback alteration suggest that the sensory error detection works in a

  4. Rapid change in articulatory lip movement induced by preceding auditory feedback during production of bilabial plosives.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takemi Mochida

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: There has been plentiful evidence of kinesthetically induced rapid compensation for unanticipated perturbation in speech articulatory movements. However, the role of auditory information in stabilizing articulation has been little studied except for the control of voice fundamental frequency, voice amplitude and vowel formant frequencies. Although the influence of auditory information on the articulatory control process is evident in unintended speech errors caused by delayed auditory feedback, the direct and immediate effect of auditory alteration on the movements of articulators has not been clarified. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This work examined whether temporal changes in the auditory feedback of bilabial plosives immediately affects the subsequent lip movement. We conducted experiments with an auditory feedback alteration system that enabled us to replace or block speech sounds in real time. Participants were asked to produce the syllable /pa/ repeatedly at a constant rate. During the repetition, normal auditory feedback was interrupted, and one of three pre-recorded syllables /pa/, /Φa/, or /pi/, spoken by the same participant, was presented once at a different timing from the anticipated production onset, while no feedback was presented for subsequent repetitions. Comparisons of the labial distance trajectories under altered and normal feedback conditions indicated that the movement quickened during the short period immediately after the alteration onset, when /pa/ was presented 50 ms before the expected timing. Such change was not significant under other feedback conditions we tested. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The earlier articulation rapidly induced by the progressive auditory input suggests that a compensatory mechanism helps to maintain a constant speech rate by detecting errors between the internally predicted and actually provided auditory information associated with self movement. The timing- and context

  5. Interannual Change Detection of Mediterranean Seagrasses Using RapidEye Image Time Series

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    Dimosthenis Traganos

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Recent research studies have highlighted the decrease in the coverage of Mediterranean seagrasses due to mainly anthropogenic activities. The lack of data on the distribution of these significant aquatic plants complicates the quantification of their decreasing tendency. While Mediterranean seagrasses are declining, satellite remote sensing technology is growing at an unprecedented pace, resulting in a wealth of spaceborne image time series. Here, we exploit recent advances in high spatial resolution sensors and machine learning to study Mediterranean seagrasses. We process a multispectral RapidEye time series between 2011 and 2016 to detect interannual seagrass dynamics in 888 submerged hectares of the Thermaikos Gulf, NW Aegean Sea, Greece (eastern Mediterranean Sea. We assess the extent change of two Mediterranean seagrass species, the dominant Posidonia oceanica and Cymodocea nodosa, following atmospheric and analytical water column correction, as well as machine learning classification, using Random Forests, of the RapidEye time series. Prior corrections are necessary to untangle the initially weak signal of the submerged seagrass habitats from satellite imagery. The central results of this study show that P. oceanica seagrass area has declined by 4.1%, with a trend of −11.2 ha/yr, while C. nodosa seagrass area has increased by 17.7% with a trend of +18 ha/yr throughout the 5-year study period. Trends of change in spatial distribution of seagrasses in the Thermaikos Gulf site are in line with reported trends in the Mediterranean. Our presented methodology could be a time- and cost-effective method toward the quantitative ecological assessment of seagrass dynamics elsewhere in the future. From small meadows to whole coastlines, knowledge of aquatic plant dynamics could resolve decline or growth trends and accurately highlight key units for future restoration, management, and conservation.

  6. Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) changes in bariatric surgery patients undergoing rapid weight loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lankford, D Alan; Proctor, Charles D; Richard, Robert

    2005-03-01

    Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common condition in morbidly obese patients, with the reported prevalence ranging from 12-78%. There is increasing recognition of the need to diagnose and treat/manage OSA both preoperatively and postoperatively. Nasal CPAP is the preferred treatment of OSA; however, weight loss is associated with a reduction in required pressures. We evaluated the CPAP pressure requirements in a group of patients undergoing rapid weight loss following Roux-en-Y gastric bypass. 15 patients who had been diagnosed with OSA before surgery were retrospectively evaluated. All patients had demonstrated compliance on home CPAP therapy, were minimally 3 months post-surgery and had follow-up reports that their CPAP was less effective. We obtained data on age, sex, weight, BMI, and apnea/hypopnea index (AHI). Optimal CPAP pressure was obtained initially through attended in-laboratory complex polysomnography. Follow-up CPAP pressure was obtained using an auto-titrating PAP device at home. These data were used to evaluate the pressure changes that accompanied weight loss. This group of patients had lost an average of 44.5 +/- 19.4 kg. Four patients had achieved their goal weight. Their starting CPAP pressures averaged 11 +/- 3.0 cm H2O, with a range of 7-18 cm H2O. Follow-up CPAP pressures averaged 9 +/- 2.7 cm H2O, with a range of 4-12 cm H2O, representing an overall reduction of 18%. The subgroup of patients who had achieved goal weight had a pressure reduction of 22% (9 +/- 2.0 to 7 +/- 1.0 cm H2O). CPAP pressure requirements change considerably in bariatric surgery patients undergoing rapid weight loss. Auto-titrating PAP devices have promise for facilitating the management of CPAP therapy during this time. Consideration should also be given to the use of autotitrating PAP units as the treatment of choice in these patients.

  7. [Changes in employment, retirement age and fertility: their effects on economic dependency and per capita income].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravo, J H

    1991-04-01

    This article provides a very simplified analysis of the impact of changes in unemployment, retirement age, and fertility on economic dependency and per capita income in Latin America. The macroeconomic consequences of variations in age structure have received a little recent attention among Latin American researchers and policymakers, partly because of the lack of simple but rigorous analytical models to orient research. This analysis is simplified in that it focuses on changes in age distribution but does not explicitly consider effects of changes in population size, even though in reality the 2 types of changes are interrelated. The analysis has also been simplified by not taking into account any type of causal interaction between the demographic and economic variables analyzed; only the most elementary accounting relations between them are utilized. The 1st section defines the concept of economic dependency, specifies the effects of changes in its demographic and economic components, and establishes a simple link between the dependency ratio and per capita income. These and other derivations in the following sections permit evaluation of the impact of changes in employment, retirement age, and fertility on the dependency ratio and per capita income. The work concludes with a synthesis and general discussion, including a theoretical consideration of the effects of interactions among components. Only the most important equations are presented in the main text, but all variables, equations, and relations are defined and derived in the appendix. 6 countries were studied to illustrate the relationships in the context of the demographic diversity of Latin America. Argentina and Cuba represented countries in an advanced stage of the demographic transition, Chile and Mexico represented an intermediate phase, and Bolivia and Peru represented countries at the beginning of the transition. Results of decomposition of changes in dependency and income due to each of the

  8. VERSHINA – A POLISH VILLAGE IN SIBERIA. FACTORS INFLUENCING LANGUAGE MAINTENANCE UNDER CHANGING SOCIAL, CULTURAL, ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michał Głuszkowski

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses factors influencing language maintenance under changing social, cultural, economic and political conditions of Polish minority in Siberia. The village of Vershina was founded in 1910 by Polish voluntary settlers from Little Poland.During its first three decades Vershina preserved Polish language,traditions, farming methods and machines and also the Roman Catholic religion. The changes came to a village in taiga in the1930s. Vershina lost its ethnocultural homogeneity because of Russian and Buryat workers in the local kolkhoz. Nowadays the inhabitants of Vershina regained their minority rights: religious, educational and cultural. However, during the years of sovietization and ateization, their culture and customs became much more similar to other Siberian villages. Polish language in Vershina is under strong influence of Russian, which is the language of education,administration, and surrounding villages. Children from Polish-Russian families become monolingual and use Polish very rare, only asa school subject and in contacts with grandparents. The process of abandoning mother tongue in Vershina is growing rapidly. However,there are some factors which may hinder the actual changes:the activity of local Polish organisations and Roman Catholic parish as well as folk group “Jazhumbek”.

  9. The Economic Impact of Adaptive Responses to Future Scenarios of Socio-Economic and Ecological Change in the Tonle Sap Ecosystem, Cambodia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teh, L.; Bond, N.; KC, K. B.; Fraser, E. D. G.; Seng, R.; Sumaila, R.

    2016-12-01

    The livelihoods of people dependent on the Tonle Sap floodplain ecosystem in Cambodia are expected to be affected by future socio-economic, policy, ecological, and climate change. To investigate the economic impact of these changes on fishing dependent communities, we compare the net income from individuals' current livelihoods to that derived from reallocating their livelihood activities under 4 different scenarios depicting future change. Under current conditions, we find that the group of individuals who do not participate in fishing had the lowest net income. In contrast, individuals who participated in fishing only had comparatively higher average net income than those with multiple livelihoods, suggesting that there may be current gains from livelihood specialisation. When presented with scenarios of future ecological and socio-economic change, the majority of respondents chose to retain their current livelihood strategy under all future scenarios. Of those who did change their livelihood allocation, less than 10% actually experienced a gain in economic benefits. Overall, a loss in net income was expected under all future scenarios, with those engaged in single livelihoods being the most vulnerable because they were likely to experience the largest losses (7 - 29% loss vs. 1 - 17% for multi-livelihoods) across all 4 scenarios while having the least capacity to adapt. Respondents' choices generated the best economic outcome under the scenario depicting the status quo, indicating that they were capable of coping with current conditions, but were unlikely to make appropriate decisions when faced with future scenarios that they were unfamiliar with. By quantifying the consequences of low adaptive capacity in terms of income loss, this study provides an economic argument for addressing the social and economic factors that currently inhibit the capacity of Tonle Sap inhabitants to adapt to future change. It also emphasises the need for sustainable management of

  10. Ecosystem service provision in a changing Europe: adapting to the impacts of combined climate and socio-economic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunford, Robert W; Smith, Alison C; Harrison, Paula A; Hanganu, Diana

    Future patterns of European ecosystem services provision are likely to vary significantly as a result of climatic and socio-economic change and the implementation of adaptation strategies. However, there is little research in mapping future ecosystem services and no integrated assessment approach to map the combined impacts of these drivers. Map changing patterns in ecosystem services for different European futures and (a) identify the role of driving forces; (b) explore the potential influence of different adaptation options. The CLIMSAVE integrated assessment platform is used to map spatial patterns in services (food, water and timber provision, atmospheric regulation, biodiversity existence/bequest, landscape experience and land use diversity) for a number of combined climatic and socio-economic scenarios. Eight adaptation strategies are explored within each scenario. Future service provision (particularly water provision) will be significantly impacted by climate change. Socio-economic changes shift patterns of service provision: more dystopian societies focus on food provision at the expense of other services. Adaptation options offer significant opportunities, but may necessitate trade-offs between services, particularly between agriculture- and forestry-related services. Unavoidable trade-offs between regions (particularly South-North) are also identified in some scenarios. Coordinating adaptation across regions and sectors will be essential to ensure that all needs are met: a factor that will become increasingly pressing under dystopian futures where inter-regional cooperation breaks down. Integrated assessment enables exploration of interactions and trade-offs between ecosystem services, highlighting the importance of taking account of complex cross-sectoral interactions under different future scenarios of planning adaptation responses.

  11. Consistent economic cross-sectoral climate change impact scenario analysis: Method and application to Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl W. Steininger

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change triggers manifold impacts at the national to local level, which in turn have various economy-wide implications (e.g. on welfare, employment, or tax revenues. In its response, society needs to prioritize which of these impacts to address and what share of resources to spend on each respective adaptation. A prerequisite to achieving that end is an economic impact analysis that is consistent across sectors and acknowledges intersectoral and economy-wide feedback effects. Traditional Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs are usually operating at a level too aggregated for this end, while bottom-up impact models most often are not fully comprehensive, focusing on only a subset of climate sensitive sectors and/or a subset of climate change impact chains. Thus, we develop here an approach which applies climate and socioeconomic scenario analysis, harmonized economic costing, and sector explicit bandwidth analysis in a coupled framework of eleven (biophysical impact assessment models and a uniform multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model. In applying this approach to the alpine country of Austria, we find that macroeconomic feedbacks can magnify sectoral climate damages up to fourfold, or that by mid-century costs of climate change clearly outweigh benefits, with net costs rising two- to fourfold above current damage cost levels. The resulting specific impact information – differentiated by climate and economic drivers – can support sector-specific adaptation as well as adaptive capacity building.

  12. Rapid Industrial Development, Competition, and Relative Economic Status: A Study in Human Ecology. Working Paper RID 73.10.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summers, Gene F.; Clemente, Frank

    The document has 3 goals (1) to examine the distribution of economic benefits of industrial development as reflected by the concept of competition in human ecology; (2) to provide an empirical test of the ecological model, and (3) to relate the findings to public policy. Two Illinois study areas were identified. First, as an experimental region,…

  13. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Research on Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (part 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This is a workshop titled Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Research on Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (part 2)

  14. How much will be economic impact of climate change on water resources? A Meta-Analytic Review of previous literature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshikawa, S.; Iseri, Y.; Kanae, S.

    2016-12-01

    Water resources is vital in social and economic activities. Total global water use is increasing, mainly due to economic and population growth in developing countries. It has one of risk with high agreement and robust evidence that freshwater-related risks of climate change increase significantly with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. It is difficult to compare the risk with other field risk (e.g. agriculture, forestry, sea level rise) for considering both adaptation and mitigation policy with the level of decision makers and public servants. Economic impacts of climate change on water scarcity has been estimated by economic researchers. We have no certainty at all about integration between hydrological and economical fields on global scale. In this study, we highlight key concerns about conventional estimations of economic impact on water resources through meta-analysis. The economic impact on water resource in same base year using consumer price index is shown with increase in the global mean temperature. We clarified four concerns which are involved in 1) classification of economic mechanism, 2) estimated items of economic impact, 3) difference in estimating equations, and 4) definition of parameters related with economic impact of climate change. This study would be essential to next challenge as transdisciplinary research between hydrologic and economic fields.

  15. Biophysical and Economic Uncertainty in the Analysis of Poverty Impacts of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, T. W.; Lobell, D. B.; Verma, M.

    2011-12-01

    This paper seeks to understand the main sources of uncertainty in assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural output, international trade, and poverty. We incorporate biophysical uncertainty by sampling from a distribution of global climate model predictions for temperature and precipitation for 2050. The implications of these realizations for crop yields around the globe are estimated using the recently published statistical crop yield functions provided by Lobell, Schlenker and Costa-Roberts (2011). By comparing these yields to those predicted under current climate, we obtain the likely change in crop yields owing to climate change. The economic uncertainty in our analysis relates to the response of the global economic system to these biophysical shocks. We use a modified version of the GTAP model to elicit the impact of the biophysical shocks on global patterns of production, consumption, trade and poverty. Uncertainty in these responses is reflected in the econometrically estimated parameters governing the responsiveness of international trade, consumption, production (and hence the intensive margin of supply response), and factor supplies (which govern the extensive margin of supply response). We sample from the distributions of these parameters as specified by Hertel et al. (2007) and Keeney and Hertel (2009). We find that, even though it is difficult to predict where in the world agricultural crops will be favorably affected by climate change, the responses of economic variables, including output and exports can be far more robust (Table 1). This is due to the fact that supply and demand decisions depend on relative prices, and relative prices depend on productivity changes relative to other crops in a given region, or relative to similar crops in other parts of the world. We also find that uncertainty in poverty impacts of climate change appears to be almost entirely driven by biophysical uncertainty.

  16. An invasive species induces rapid adaptive change in a native predator: cane toads and black snakes in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Ben L; Shine, Richard

    2006-06-22

    Rapid environmental change due to human activities has increased rates of extinction, but some species may be able to adapt rapidly enough to deal with such changes. Our studies of feeding behaviour and physiological resistance to toxins reveal surprisingly rapid adaptive responses in Australian black snakes (Pseudechis porphyriacus) following the invasion of a lethally toxic prey item, the cane toad (Bufo marinus). Snakes from toad-exposed localities showed increased resistance to toad toxin and a decreased preference for toads as prey. Separate laboratory experiments suggest that these changes are not attributable to learning (we were unable to teach naive snakes to avoid toxic prey) or to acquired resistance (repeated sub-lethal doses did not enhance resistance). These results strongly suggest that black snake behaviour and physiology have evolved in response to the presence of toads, and have done so rapidly. Toads were brought to Australia in 1935, so these evolved responses have occurred in fewer than 23 snake generations.

  17. Sustainability of the Organizational Changes in the Context of Global Economic Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armenia Androniceanu

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, as a result of the hastening economic crisis, the Romanian business environment has known important changes. This paper presents and analyzes the changes caused by globalization in small and medium enterprises that exports goods and services from Bucharest. The purpose of the research was to discover the impact of global crisis upon the concerned group of enterprises and the organizational changes implemented by them. Through the research we succeeded to identify the main problems that occurred in the target group enterprises in the context of global economic crisis and what caused the reduction in their developing rhythm. Another part of the paper contains an analysis of the managers perceptions regarding the governmental anti-crisis measures and strategic and tactical changes initiated by them as a natural need to adapt to the particularities of the internal and international business environment. The final part includes the conclusions of the research and a sum of recommendations for efficient management of organizational changes in target group enterprises, with the possibility of generalizing them to all Romanian small and medium enterprises.

  18. The Non-economic Dimension of Changes Prompted by Cross-border Acquisitions: A Relational View

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sérgio Fernando Loureiro Rezende

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Building on the relational view of M&A suggested by the Industrial Network Approach, we looked at the noneconomic dimension of post-acquisition changes in the relationships of the acquired firm. Based on a 2x2 matrix, this is illustrated by the relationships between the acquired firm with for-profit organizations through which noneconomic resources are transacted (called Social or with non-profit organizations with which it transacts either economic (called Partnership or non-economic resources (called Community. We built a qualitative case study from the acquisition of the Brazilian firm Paraíso Group by the Swiss multinational Holcim, and focused on ten relationships of the acquired firm. We found that these relationships changed in terms of professionalism, degree of dependence and number of actors. An increase in professionalism is observed in all the relationships. This type and direction of change was considered the most important post-acquisition change. The degree of dependence and number of actors changes happened in specific segments of the acquired firm’s network, represented by the Community and Social relationships, respectively.

  19. Communicating climate change – Learning from business: challenging values, changing economic thinking, innovating the low carbon economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharina Kaesehage

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The risks and opportunities presented by climate change for Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs have been largely overlooked by previous research. The subsequent lack of knowledge in this field makes it difficult for SMEs to engage with climate change in a meaningful, profitable, and sustainable way. Further, current research cannot explain why SMEs rarely engage with climate change. We examine critically 30 SMEs, which engage with climate change knowledges and 5 Innovation-Support-Organizations (ISOs that communicate climate change knowledges. Over a three-year period we explore why and how these businesses approach the knowledge gap between climate change science and business practice, drawing on a variety of ethnographic research methods: (1 in-depth semi-structured and open interviews; (2 participant observations; and (3 practitioners’ workshops. The results demonstrate that business’ mitigation and adaptation strategies are lay-knowledge-dependent, derived from personal values, space, and place identity. To enhance the number of SMEs engaging with climate change, maximize the potential value of climate change for the econo- my and establish a low carbon economy, climate change communication needs to target personal values of business leaders. The message should highlight local impacts of climate change, the benefits of engagement to (the local society and economy, and possible financial benefits for the business. Climate change communication therefore needs to go beyond thinking about potential financial benefits and scientific evidence and challenge values, cultures, and beliefs to stimulate economic, political, and social frameworks that promote values-based decision-making.

  20. Between professional autonomy and economic orientation - The medical profession in a changing health care system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kälble, Karl

    2005-02-17

    The current discussions surrounding the German health care system are being determined and defined by the concepts of "profitability", "efficiency" and "saving". These concepts also determine the demands made on this system and have had an effect on the medical profession. The economy's growing influence on physicians' decision-making and the increasing necessity to look at and regulate services under economic aspects arising from the need to save costs are seen by the medical profession as a threat to its autonomous conduct and freedom to make decisions, in other words it sees it as a danger to its medical orientation. Conflicts between medical autonomy and economic orientation in physicians' conduct are therefore already foreseeable, as are conflicts between medicine and economy in regards to who has the power to define the terms of the public health system. This article will outline the area of conflict based on the available literature. It will discuss how the political and economic regulatory attempts affect the medical profession's autonomous conduct. It will also discuss which conflicts of conduct emerge for physicians, what types of solutions the medical profession tends to develop as a reaction, and whether or not this tension between medical and economic orientation can be resolved in an acceptable way. This article should first outline the changed economic and political basic conditions and the attempts to reform the German health care system, using this as a starting point. Following this, it will explore the significance professional autonomy acquires within the concept of profession from the point of view of the sociology of professions. With this in mind, the third part of this article will describe and analyze the effects of advanced economization on the medical profession's autonomous conduct, which has long been regarded as uncontested. This part of the article will also describe and analyze the medical profession's strategies it uses to defend

  1. Examining the impacts of oil price changes on economic indicators: A panel approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Kah Boon; Sek, Siok Kun

    2017-04-01

    The impact of oil price on global economy is evident from many studies and research findings. In this study, we extend the research on examining the impact of oil price changes on economic indicators in terms of economic growth and inflation by comparing different groups of economies (high income versus low income countries and oil importing versus oil exporting countries). Our main objective is to reveal if such impact varies across country income level/ development and oil dependency. In addition, we also seek to compare the impacts of oil price relative to the other factors indicators (money supply, foreign direct investment, exchange rate, government expenditure, inflation and gross domestic product) on economy. For the purpose of this study, the co-integration regression (DOLS and FMOLS) techniques are applied to the panel dataset of four groups of economies which contain 10 countries in each panel dataset. The analysis results show that oil price is not the main determinant although it can have a significant impact on inflation and economic growth across all groups of economies. The three main determinants of economic growth are exchange rate, aggregate demand and government expenditure while the determinants of inflation are aggregate supply and exchange rate. Furthermore, our result also concludes that oil price has a positive impact in oil exporting economies but it shows a negative impact in oil importing economies due to the oil dependency factor.

  2. ON THE WAY AND RESULT REFORMATION ECONOMICS AND CHANGE PRIORITIS OF THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY CHINE`S

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.I. Maslennikov

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available In article analyses common and specific chine’s problems reformation, adaptation and modernization national economy on the way globalization processes in the world, including such forms us international trade. Chine is quickly development state postsocialist type, very activities integrities in world economy systems, across very high temps of the economic rate and adopting national economy to specific going and methods industrialization, scientific-technical, social and economic progress, formation on this base of the postindustrial economy.

  3. Estimating economic value of agricultural water under changing conditions and the effects of spatial aggregation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medellín-Azuara, Josué; Harou, Julien J; Howitt, Richard E

    2010-11-01

    Given the high proportion of water used for agriculture in certain regions, the economic value of agricultural water can be an important tool for water management and policy development. This value is quantified using economic demand curves for irrigation water. Such demand functions show the incremental contribution of water to agricultural production. Water demand curves are estimated using econometric or optimisation techniques. Calibrated agricultural optimisation models allow the derivation of demand curves using smaller datasets than econometric models. This paper introduces these subject areas then explores the effect of spatial aggregation (upscaling) on the valuation of water for irrigated agriculture. A case study from the Rio Grande-Rio Bravo Basin in North Mexico investigates differences in valuation at farm and regional aggregated levels under four scenarios: technological change, warm-dry climate change, changes in agricultural commodity prices, and water costs for agriculture. The scenarios consider changes due to external shocks or new policies. Positive mathematical programming (PMP), a calibrated optimisation method, is the deductive valuation method used. An exponential cost function is compared to the quadratic cost functions typically used in PMP. Results indicate that the economic value of water at the farm level and the regionally aggregated level are similar, but that the variability and distributional effects of each scenario are affected by aggregation. Moderately aggregated agricultural production models are effective at capturing average-farm adaptation to policy changes and external shocks. Farm-level models best reveal the distribution of scenario impacts. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Late Quaternary Biosiliceous Laminated Marine Sediments From Antarctica: Seasonality During a Period of Rapid Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pike, J.; Stickley, C. E.; Maddison, E. J.; Leventer, A.; Brachfeld, S.; Domack, E. W.; Dunbar, R. B.; Manley, P. L.; McClennen, C.

    2004-12-01

    The Antarctic ice sheet plays a key role in global oceanic and atmosphere systems. One of the most dynamic regions of the continent is the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) where ecological and cryospheric systems respond rapidly to climate change, such as the last deglaciation ( ˜12-13 kyr BP). Here, deglacial laminated diatom-rich marine sediments are well known, e.g., Palmer Deep (64° S 64° W; ODP Hole 1098A) comprising a distinctive 3 m thick sequence of deglacial `couplet' laminations. The East Antarctic margin (EAM), however, has received less attention than the West Antarctic margin (WAM) in palaeoceanographic studies yet its role in deep ocean circulation and, therefore, the global ocean system is significant. Recent sediment cores recovered from EAM sites during NSF Polar Programs-funded cruise NBP0101 in February and March 2001 (e.g. Mertz Drift \\{66° S 143° E\\}, Svenner Channel \\{69° S 77° E\\} in Prydz Bay, Nielsen Basin \\{67° S 66° E\\} and Iceberg Alley \\{67° S 63° E\\}), reveal that a similar sedimentary facies was deposited along the EAM, in similar geomorphological settings to Palmer Deep, during the same timeframe. These rich sediment archives reveal clues about circum-Antarctic palaeoceanographic change during the last deglaciation, a time of both high silica flux and rapid climate change. Microfabrics and diatom assemblages from scanning electron microscope backscattered and secondary electron imagery analysis of coeval deglacial varves from Palmer Deep (WAM), Mertz-Ninnis Trough and Iceberg Alley (EAM) are presented and compared. The varves from these localities are characterised by laminae to thin beds of orange-brown diatom ooze up to ˜8cm thick alternating with blue-grey diatom-bearing terrigenous sediments up to ˜4cm thick. The orange-brown oozes are dominated by resting spores and vegetative valves of Hyalochaete Chaetoceros spp., resulting from spring sedimentation associated with stratified surface waters promoting exceptionally

  5. Environmental and economic risks assessment under climate changes for three land uses scenarios analysis across Teshio watershed, northernmost of Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Min; Shibata, Hideaki; Chen, Li

    2017-12-01

    Land use and climate changes affect on the economy and environment with different patterns and magnitudes in the watershed. This study used risk analysis model stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to evaluate economic and environmental risks caused by four climate change scenarios (baseline, small-, mid- and large changes) and three land uses (paddy dominated, paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated for agriculture) in Teshio watershed in northern Hokkaido, Japan. Under the baseline climate conditions, the lower ranking of economic income of crop yield and higher ranking of pollutant load from agricultural land were both predicted in paddy dominated for agriculture, suggesting that the paddy dominated system caused higher risks of economic and environmental variables compared to other two land uses. Increase of temperature and precipitation increased crop yields under all three climate changes which resulted in increase of the ranking of economic income, indicating that those climate changes could reduce economic risk. The increased temperature and precipitation also accelerated mineralization of organic nutrient and nutrient leaching to river course of Teshio which resulted in increase of the ranking of pollutant load, suggesting that those climate changes could lead to more environmental risk. The rankings of economic income in mid- and large changes of climate were lower than that in small change of climate under paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated systems due to decrease of crop yield, suggesting that climate change led to more economic risk. In summary, the results suggested that increase in temperature and precipitation caused higher risks of both economic and environmental perspectives, and the impacts was higher than those of land use changes in the studied watershed. Those findings would help producers and watershed managers to measure the tradeoffs between environmental protection and agricultural economic development

  6. Coastal regime shifts: rapid responses of coastal wetlands to changes in mangrove cover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Hongyu; Weaver, Carolyn; Charles, Sean P; Whitt, Ashley; Dastidar, Sayantani; D'Odorico, Paolo; Fuentes, Jose D; Kominoski, John S; Armitage, Anna R; Pennings, Steven C

    2017-03-01

    Global changes are causing broad-scale shifts in vegetation communities worldwide, including coastal habitats where the borders between mangroves and salt marsh are in flux. Coastal habitats provide numerous ecosystem services of high economic value, but the consequences of variation in mangrove cover are poorly known. We experimentally manipulated mangrove cover in large plots to test a set of linked hypotheses regarding the effects of changes in mangrove cover. We found that changes in mangrove cover had strong effects on microclimate, plant community, sediment accretion, soil organic content, and bird abundance within 2 yr. At higher mangrove cover, wind speed declined and light interception by vegetation increased. Air and soil temperatures had hump-shaped relationships with mangrove cover. The cover of salt marsh plants decreased at higher mangrove cover. Wrack cover, the distance that wrack was distributed from the water's edge, and sediment accretion decreased at higher mangrove cover. Soil organic content increased with mangrove cover. Wading bird abundance decreased at higher mangrove cover. Many of these relationships were non-linear, with the greatest effects when mangrove cover varied from zero to intermediate values, and lesser effects when mangrove cover varied from intermediate to high values. Temporal and spatial variation in measured variables often peaked at intermediate mangrove cover, with ecological consequences that are largely unexplored. Because different processes varied in different ways with mangrove cover, the "optimum" cover of mangroves from a societal point of view will depend on which ecosystem services are most desired. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  7. Rapid change in drift of the Australian plate records collision with Ontong Java plateau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knesel, Kurt M; Cohen, Benjamin E; Vasconcelos, Paulo M; Thiede, David S

    2008-08-07

    The subduction of oceanic plateaux, which contain extraordinarily thick basaltic crust and are the marine counterparts of continental flood-basalt provinces, is an important factor in many current models of plate motion and provides a potential mechanism for triggering plate reorganization. To evaluate such models, it is essential to decipher the history of the collision between the largest and thickest of the world's oceanic plateaux, the Ontong Java plateau, and the Australian plate, but this has been hindered by poor constraints for the arrival of the plateau at the Melanesian trench. Here we present (40)Ar-(39)Ar geochronological data on hotspot volcanoes in eastern Australian that reveal a strong link between collision of the Greenland-sized Ontong Java plateau with the Melanesian arc and motion of the Australian plate. The new ages define a short-lived period of reduced northward plate motion between 26 and 23 Myr ago, coincident with an eastward offset in the contemporaneous tracks of seamount chains in the Tasman Sea east of Australia. These features record a brief westward deflection of the Australian plate as the plateau entered and choked the Melanesian trench 26 Myr ago. From 23 Myr ago, Australia returned to a rapid northerly trajectory at roughly the same time that southwest-directed subduction began along the Trobriand trough. The timing and brevity of this collisional event correlate well with offsets in hotspot seamount tracks on the Pacific plate, including the archetypal Hawaiian chain, and thus provide strong evidence that immense oceanic plateaux, like the Ontong Java, can contribute to initiating rapid change in plate boundaries and motions on a global scale.

  8. Subchondral Bone Plate Changes More Rapidly than Trabecular Bone in Osteoarthritis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaitunnatakhin Zamli

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Osteoarthritis (OA is the most common joint disorder, characterised by focal loss of cartilage and increased subchondral bone remodelling at early OA stages of the disease. We have investigated the temporal and the spatial relationship between bone remodelling in subchondral bone plate (Sbp and trabecular bone (Tb in Dunkin Hartley (DH, develop OA early and the Bristol Strain 2 (BS2, control which develop OA late guinea pigs. Right tibias were dissected from six male animals of each strain, at 10, 16, 24 and 30 weeks of age. Micro-computed tomography was used to quantify the growth plate thickness (GpTh, subchondral bone plate thickness (SbpTh and trabecular bone thickness (TbTh, and bone mineral density (BMD in both Sbp and Tb. The rate of change was calculated for 10–16 weeks, 16–24 weeks and 24–30 weeks. The rate of changes in Sbp and Tb thickness at the earliest time interval (10–16 weeks were significantly greater in DH guinea pigs than in the growth-matched control strain (BS2. The magnitude of these differences was greater in the medial side than the lateral side (DH: 22.7 and 14.75 µm/week, BS2: 5.63 and 6.67 µm/week, respectively. Similarly, changes in the BMD at the earliest time interval was greater in the DH strain than the BS2, again more pronounced in the disease prone medial compartment (DH: 0.0698 and 0.0372 g/cm3/week, BS2: 0.00457 and 0.00772 g/cm3/week, respectively. These changes observed preceded microscopic and cellular signs of disease as previously reported. The rapid early changes in SbpTh, TbTh, Sbp BMD and Tb BMD in the disease prone DH guinea pigs compared with the BS2 control strain suggest a link to early OA pathology. This is corroborated by the greater relative changes in subchondral bone in the medial compared with the lateral compartment.

  9. Use of a Nutrition Behavior Change Counseling Tool: Lessons from a Rapid Qualitative Assessment in Eastern Zambia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingrid M Weiss

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The U.S. Agency for International Development Feed the Future Mawa Project—led by Catholic Relief Services—aims to improve food and economic security for farming households in Zambia’s Eastern Province. Mawa employs social and behavior change strategies with households and communities to improve nutrition and reduce stunting among children under two (CU2. To support these strategies, sub-partner University Research Co., LLC employed a participatory process to develop a series of 35 action cards, each illustrating one project-promoted behavior, that are used at household and community group levels. Caregivers of CU2 are given a full set of action cards to promote household dialogue and support for the promoted behaviors. As a final step in the action card tool development process, a qualitative rapid assessment was conducted one month after implementation to investigate preliminary ways action cards were being used and if the methods of using the cards had the potential to impact behavior change. The research team conducted nine key informant interviews and four focus group discussions with Mawa staff and administered 41 qualitative interview questionnaires with project participants in the Chipata and Lundazi districts. Although not based on a representative sampling frame, the assessment produced valuable results for program improvement purposes. It also provided a feedback mechanism for community-based staff and project participants, a crucial step in the participatory tool development process. The assessment found that Mawa staff at every level use action cards combined with at least one other SBC tool for each nutrition intervention. Our results suggest Mawa staff and project participants share a common understanding of the cards’ purpose. Each group noted that the cards provide a visual cue for action and reinforce previous Mawa nutrition messages. Intended uses confirmed by the assessment include encouraging household cooperation

  10. Rapid Environmental Change Drives Increased Land Use by an Arctic Marine Predator.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd C Atwood

    Full Text Available In the Arctic Ocean's southern Beaufort Sea (SB, the length of the sea ice melt season (i.e., period between the onset of sea ice break-up in summer and freeze-up in fall has increased substantially since the late 1990s. Historically, polar bears (Ursus maritimus of the SB have mostly remained on the sea ice year-round (except for those that came ashore to den, but recent changes in the extent and phenology of sea ice habitat have coincided with evidence that use of terrestrial habitat is increasing. We characterized the spatial behavior of polar bears spending summer and fall on land along Alaska's north coast to better understand the nexus between rapid environmental change and increased use of terrestrial habitat. We found that the percentage of radiocollared adult females from the SB subpopulation coming ashore has tripled over 15 years. Moreover, we detected trends of earlier arrival on shore, increased length of stay, and later departure back to sea ice, all of which were related to declines in the availability of sea ice habitat over the continental shelf and changes to sea ice phenology. Since the late 1990s, the mean duration of the open-water season in the SB increased by 36 days, and the mean length of stay on shore increased by 31 days. While on shore, the distribution of polar bears was influenced by the availability of scavenge subsidies in the form of subsistence-harvested bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus remains aggregated at sites along the coast. The declining spatio-temporal availability of sea ice habitat and increased availability of human-provisioned resources are likely to result in increased use of land. Increased residency on land is cause for concern given that, while there, bears may be exposed to a greater array of risk factors including those associated with increased human activities.

  11. Rapid changes in cell physiology as a result of acute thermal stress house sparrows, Passer domesticus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez, Ana G; Williams, Joseph B

    2014-12-01

    Given that our climate is rapidly changing, Physiological Ecologists have the critical task of identifying characteristics of species that make them either resilient or susceptible to changes in their natural air temperature regime. Because climate change models suggest that heat events will become more common, and in some places more extreme, it is important to consider how extreme heat events might affect the physiology of a species. The implications of more frequent heat wave events for birds have only recently begun to be addressed, however, the impact of these events on the cellular physiology of a species is difficult to assess. We have developed a novel approach using dermal fibroblasts to explore how short-term thermal stress at the whole animal level might affect cellular rates of metabolism. House sparrows, Passer domesticus were separated into a "control group" and a "heat shocked" group, the latter acclimated to 43°C for 24h. We determined the plasticity of cellular thermal responses by assigning a "recovery group" that was heat shocked as above, but then returned to room temperature for 24h. Primary dermal fibroblasts were grown from skin of all treatment groups and the pectoralis muscle was collected. We found that glycolysis (ECAR) and oxygen consumption rates (OCR), measured using a Seahorse XF 96 analyzer, were significantly higher in the fibroblasts from the heat shocked group of House sparrows compared with their control counterparts. Additionally, muscle fiber diameters decreased and, in turn, Na(+)-K(+)-ATPase maximal activity in the muscle significantly increased in heat shocked sparrows compared with birds in the control group. All of these physiological alterations due to short-term heat exposure were reversible within 24h of recovery at room temperature. These results show that acute exposure to heat stress significantly alters the cellular physiology of sparrows, but that this species is plastic enough to recover from such a thermal

  12. Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Cereal Production: Implications for Sustainable Agriculture in Northern Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anslem Bawayelaazaa Nyuor

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the economic impacts of climate change on cereal crop production in Northern Ghana using 240 households comprising maize and sorghum farmers. The Ricardian regression approach was used to examine the economic impacts of climate change based on data generated from a survey conducted in the 2013/2014 farming seasons. Forty-year time-series data of rainfall and temperature from 1974 to 2013, together with cross-sectional data, were used for the empirical analysis. The Ricardian regression estimates for both maize and sorghum showed varying degrees of climate change impacts on net revenues. The results indicated that early season precipitation was beneficial for sorghum, but harmful for maize. However, mid-season precipitation tended to promote maize production. Temperature levels for all seasons impacted negatively on net revenue for both crops, except during the mid-season, when temperature exerted a positive effect on net revenue for sorghum. Our findings suggest that appropriate adaptation strategies should be promoted to reduce the negative impacts of prevailing climate change on cereal crop production.

  13. Socio-economic and cultural aspecrs of changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moshøj, Charlotte Margaret

    2009-01-01

    ! is chapter evaluates the possibility for projecting socio-economic and cultural impacts on Greenland’s society caused directly or indirectly by changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet. ! ere are, as yet, no well-documented direct causative links between the conditions for a society dictated by natur...... at the margin of human existence over a millennium of climate change and external cultural in# uences......! is chapter evaluates the possibility for projecting socio-economic and cultural impacts on Greenland’s society caused directly or indirectly by changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet. ! ere are, as yet, no well-documented direct causative links between the conditions for a society dictated by nature......, and the way a given society develops. ! is chapter describes the development of the modern Greenland society from a historical perspective and introduces a number of speci" c cases that illustrate the propensity for change in a society that is derived from the Inuit culture. ! e Inuit culture has survived...

  14. WP/082 The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn; Thurlow, James

    Unlike existing studies, we adopt a multi-sectoral approach and consider the full range of climate projections. Biophysical damages are translated into economic costs using a dynamic economywide model. Our results for Vietnam indicate that the negative impacts on agriculture and roads are modest,...... that there are benefits from pre-emptive action, but also opportunity costs from precautionary adaptation investments.......Unlike existing studies, we adopt a multi-sectoral approach and consider the full range of climate projections. Biophysical damages are translated into economic costs using a dynamic economywide model. Our results for Vietnam indicate that the negative impacts on agriculture and roads are modest......, at least until 2050. Larger costs are caused by rising sea levels and cyclone strikes. Overall, climate change is likely to reduce Vietnam’s national income by between one and two percent by 2050 (relative to a historical baseline). Damages double under more extreme projections. Our findings suggest...

  15. Standardization and Green Economic Change - the Case of Energy Efficiency in Buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Maj Munch; Faria, Lourenco

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the role of standardization for green economic change using energy efficiency in buildings as a case. Innovation research on standards tends to focus on the competition between competing emerging standards as well as the economic impacts of these. The idea pursued here...... energy efficiency becomes an issue in standardization work using buildings as a case. The paper seeks more specifically to investigate the rise of building related standards generally over time as well as in different technical areas and geographic regions. The hypothesis pursued in this paper...... is that the rise of the green economy can only take place accompanied by considerable institution formation in the form of standards. In this sense, the presence of standards may be seen as an important indicator on the maturity of the greening of the economy. The paper presents early empirical work...

  16. Evidence for rapid climate change in the Mesozoic-Palaeogene greenhouse world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkyns, Hugh C

    2003-09-15

    The best-documented example of rapid climate change that characterized the so-called 'greenhouse world' took place at the time of the Palaeocene-Eocene boundary: introduction of isotopically light carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system, accompanied by global warming of 5-8 degrees C across a range of latitudes, took place over a few thousand years. Dissociation, release and oxidation of gas hydrates from continental-margin sites and the consequent rapid global warming from the input of greenhouses gases are generally credited with causing the abrupt negative excursions in carbon- and oxygen-isotope ratios. The isotopic anomalies, as recorded in foraminifera, propagated downwards from the shallowest levels of the ocean, implying that considerable quantities of methane survived upward transit through the water column to oxidize in the atmosphere. In the Mesozoic Era, a number of similar events have been recognized, of which those at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary, in the early Toarcian (Jurassic) and in the early Aptian (Cretaceous) currently carry the best documentation for dramatic rises in temperature. In these three examples, and in other less well-documented cases, the lack of a definitive time-scale for the intervals in question hinders calculation of the rate of environmental change. However, comparison with the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) suggests that these older examples could have been similarly rapid. In both the early Toarcian and early Aptian cases, the negative carbon-isotope excursion precedes global excess carbon burial across a range of marine environments, a phenomenon that defines these intervals as oceanic anoxic events (OAEs). Osmium-isotope ratios ((187)Os/(188)Os) for both the early Toarcian OAE and the PETM show an excursion to more radiogenic values, demonstrating an increase in weathering and erosion of continental crust consonant with elevated temperatures. The more highly buffered strontium-isotope system ((87)Sr/(86)Sr

  17. Changes in Rational Economic Behavior Model, Caused By the Development of E-Commerce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Menzeleev Ilya, A.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In the paper the author examines the origins of rationality concept and its transformation within the framework of economic science. According to the author, rationality is a fundamental concept both for philosophy and for economics. Changes in rational economic behavior model significantly effect on informal institutes (in short-term perspective and on formal institutes (in long-term period. In the paper it is said about significant changes taking place with humanity right now. Today it becomes more and more difficult to describe human behavior by uniform concept of rationality. Now people live in a world that is developing unprecedentedly fast, with the usage of incredible amount of information, countless tasks and social contacts. The development of the Internet and IT tools facilitate this process. Already since the midtwentieth century advertising and marketing has been influencing people’s lifestyle like politics or news. Media resources brands today are comparable to the resources of some political parties or even TV channels what means that advertising today is one of the main factors affecting consumers ' minds and their behavioral model, main feature of which is the premise of rationality or justification of actions. The author analyzes the changes of models of rationality over time and, above all, the changes caused by the development of Internet marketing and its tools for monitoring user activity and the impact on decision making in the Network. In conclusion a number of recommendations is given, which can help consumers to save an independence in making decisions in the Internet environment.

  18. Economic change and sex-specific cardiovascular mortality in Britain 1955-1976.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, M H; Mooney, A

    1982-01-01

    Analyses directed toward recent declines in cardiovascular disease mortality rates have typically focused on alterations in important physiological and behavioral risk factors resulting from lifestyle changes and medical advances. In this study, a multivariate model of the impact of more fundamental changes in the socioeconomic and bio-physical environments has been developed and applied to cardiovascular disease mortality rates, by sex, in England and Wales and Scotland during 1955-1976. The predictive model includes factors associated with (1) long-term growth in the economy, (2) deleterious behavioral risk factors loosely associated with economic growth--especially cigarette consumption per capita, (3) economic instability--especially recession as indicated by factors related to unemployment, income loss, and recessional declines in average weekly hours worked in manufacturing industries, (4) health care, and (5) physical environmental disturbances--especially very cold temperatures. This model proves to be an excellent instrument for the statistical explanation of trends and fluctuations in CVD mortality rates for both sexes and both regions in Britain in the post-War period. In general, the overall exponential rate of economic growth is found to be the most powerful factor in the long-term decline in CVD mortality rates. Similarly, disturbances to the national and regional economic situations--especially recessions--have regularly been associated with elevated death rates for all populations observed. Cigarette and unusually high spirits consumption, as well as particularly cold winter temperatures, have also had important deleterious effects on CVD mortality. The proportion of government expenditures devoted to health care is associated with a reduction in CVD mortality in England and Wales.

  19. Three dimensional evaluation of alveolar bone changes in response to different rapid palatal expansion activation rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian LaBlonde

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Introduction: The aim of this multi-center retrospective study was to quantify the changes in alveolar bone height and thickness after using two different rapid palatal expansion (RPE activation protocols, and to determine whether a more rapid rate of expansion is likely to cause more adverse effects, such as alveolar tipping, dental tipping, fenestration and dehiscence of anchorage teeth. Methods: The sample consisted of pre- and post-expansion records from 40 subjects (age 8-15 years who underwent RPE using a 4-banded Hyrax appliance as part of their orthodontic treatment to correct posterior buccal crossbites. Subjects were divided into two groups according to their RPE activation rates (0.5 mm/day and 0.8 mm/day; n = 20 each group. Three-dimensional images for all included subjects were evaluated using Dolphin Imaging Software 11.7 Premium. Maxillary base width, buccal and palatal cortical bone thickness, alveolar bone height, and root angulation and length were measured. Significance of the changes in the measurements was evaluated using Wilcoxon signed-rank test and comparisons between groups were done using ANOVA. Significance was defined at p ≤ 0.05. Results: RPE activation rates of 0.5 mm per day (Group 1 and 0.8 mm per day (Group 2 caused significant increase in arch width following treatment; however, Group 2 showed greater increases compared to Group 1 (p < 0.01. Buccal alveolar height and width decreased significantly in both groups. Both treatment protocols resulted in significant increases in buccal-lingual angulation of teeth; however, Group 2 showed greater increases compared to Group 1 (p < 0.01. Conclusion: Both activation rates are associated with significant increase in intra-arch widths. However, 0.8 mm/day resulted in greater increases. The 0.8 mm/day activation rate also resulted in more increased dental tipping and decreased buccal alveolar bone thickness over 0.5 mm/day.

  20. Dental arch changes associated with rapid maxillary expansion: A retrospective model analysis study

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    Ivor M D′Souza

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Transverse deficiency of the maxilla is a common clinical problem in orthodontics and dentofacial orthopedics. Transverse maxillary deficiency, isolated or associated with other dentofacial deformities, results in esthetic and functional impairment giving rise to several clinical manifestations such as asymmetrical facial growth, positional and functional mandibular deviations, altered dentofacial esthetics, adverse periodontal responses, unstable dental tipping, and other functional problems. Orthopedic maxillary expansion is the preferred treatment approach to increase the maxillary transverse dimension in young patients by splitting of the mid palatal suture. This orthopedic procedure has lately been subject of renewed interest in orthodontic treatment mechanics because of its potential for increasing arch perimeter to alleviate crowding in the maxillary arch without adversely affecting facial profile. Hence, the present investigation was conducted to establish a correlation between transverse expansion and changes in the arch perimeter, arch width and arch length. Methods: For this purpose, 10 subjects (five males, five females were selected who had been treated by rapid maxillary expansion (RME using hyrax rapid palatal expander followed by fixed mechanotherapy (PEA. Pretreatment (T1, postexpansion (T2, and posttreatment (T3 dental models were compared for dental changes brought about by RME treatment and its stability at the end of fixed mechanotherapy. After model measurements were made, the changes between T1-T2, T2-T3 and T1-T3 were determined for each patient. The mean difference between T1-T2, T2-T3 and T1-T3 were compared to assess the effects of RME on dental arch measurements. Results are expressed as mean ± standard deviation and are compared by repeated measures analysis of variance followed by a post-hoc test. Arch perimeter changes are correlated with changes in arch widths at the canine, premolar and molar

  1. Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan T.; Shaffrey, Len; Buwen Dong

    2017-01-01

    Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August, JJA) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid warming are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This ...

  2. Rapid evolutionary change of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L plastome, and the genomic diversification of legume chloroplasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dávila Guillermo

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Fabaceae (legumes is one of the largest families of flowering plants, and some members are important crops. In contrast to what we know about their great diversity or economic importance, our knowledge at the genomic level of chloroplast genomes (cpDNAs or plastomes for these crops is limited. Results We sequenced the complete genome of the common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris cv. Negro Jamapa chloroplast. The plastome of P. vulgaris is a 150,285 bp circular molecule. It has gene content similar to that of other legume plastomes, but contains two pseudogenes, rpl33 and rps16. A distinct inversion occurred at the junction points of trnH-GUG/rpl14 and rps19/rps8, as in adzuki bean 1. These two pseudogenes and the inversion were confirmed in 10 varieties representing the two domestication centers of the bean. Genomic comparative analysis indicated that inversions generally occur in legume plastomes and the magnitude and localization of insertions/deletions (indels also vary. The analysis of repeat sequences demonstrated that patterns and sequences of tandem repeats had an important impact on sequence diversification between legume plastomes and tandem repeats did not belong to dispersed repeats. Interestingly, P. vulgaris plastome had higher evolutionary rates of change on both genomic and gene levels than G. max, which could be the consequence of pressure from both mutation and natural selection. Conclusion Legume chloroplast genomes are widely diversified in gene content, gene order, indel structure, abundance and localization of repetitive sequences, intracellular sequence exchange and evolutionary rates. The P. vulgaris plastome is a rapidly evolving genome.

  3. Rapid evolutionary change of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L) plastome, and the genomic diversification of legume chloroplasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xianwu; Castillo-Ramírez, Santiago; González, Víctor; Bustos, Patricia; Luís Fernández-Vázquez, José; Santamaría, Rosa Isela; Arellano, Jesús; Cevallos, Miguel A; Dávila, Guillermo

    2007-01-01

    Background Fabaceae (legumes) is one of the largest families of flowering plants, and some members are important crops. In contrast to what we know about their great diversity or economic importance, our knowledge at the genomic level of chloroplast genomes (cpDNAs or plastomes) for these crops is limited. Results We sequenced the complete genome of the common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris cv. Negro Jamapa) chloroplast. The plastome of P. vulgaris is a 150,285 bp circular molecule. It has gene content similar to that of other legume plastomes, but contains two pseudogenes, rpl33 and rps16. A distinct inversion occurred at the junction points of trnH-GUG/rpl14 and rps19/rps8, as in adzuki bean [1]. These two pseudogenes and the inversion were confirmed in 10 varieties representing the two domestication centers of the bean. Genomic comparative analysis indicated that inversions generally occur in legume plastomes and the magnitude and localization of insertions/deletions (indels) also vary. The analysis of repeat sequences demonstrated that patterns and sequences of tandem repeats had an important impact on sequence diversification between legume plastomes and tandem repeats did not belong to dispersed repeats. Interestingly, P. vulgaris plastome had higher evolutionary rates of change on both genomic and gene levels than G. max, which could be the consequence of pressure from both mutation and natural selection. Conclusion Legume chloroplast genomes are widely diversified in gene content, gene order, indel structure, abundance and localization of repetitive sequences, intracellular sequence exchange and evolutionary rates. The P. vulgaris plastome is a rapidly evolving genome. PMID:17623083

  4. The economic aspects of artificial snow production in the perspective of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonseth, C.

    2012-04-01

    Snowmaking is now used by ski resorts worldwide as a measure to cope with both natural snow reduction and variability. This extensive recourse casts doubt on its sustainability mainly because of the large amount of natural resources being used (energy, water). In the middle to long run, this problem is expected to increase with future climate change triggering the production of more snow. The research field that focuses on the economic aspects of artificial snow production is still in its infancy but potentially covers a wide array of issues. Among these issues, benefits and costs of snowmaking are important ones. On the one hand, benefits arise as snowmaking extends or preserves the operating period of ski areas. Several empirical studies speculate or show that snowmaking considerably reduces the sensitivity of tourism consumption to variations in snow conditions. These benefits have long been neglected in studies analyzing the consequences of climate change for the winter tourism sector. While failing to introduce these benefits, many studies have generated overly high costs of climate change. On the other hand, investments and operating costs of artificial snow production depend upon several factors, such as technology and local conditions. Consequently, costs vary considerably from one location to another and over time, yet indicative values can be found in the literature. In addition, artificial snow production generates external costs, i.e. costs that are not born by those producing it. Typical of these external costs are environmental ones that are related to CO2 emissions or biodiversity losses. To our knowledge, very little has been done so far to integrate these costs in economic studies. To the extent that vertical integration is absent, it may happen as well that snow production generates important external benefits for different stakeholders at a given ski resort. From an economic point of view, both types of externalities could lead to investment

  5. Effects of changes in stock productivity and mixing on sustainable fishing and economic viability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Eero, Margit

    2017-01-01

    Within the new FMSY European paradigm, this paper shows how a combination of changes in fish stock mixing, non-stationarity in productivity, and constraints on unit stock concepts undermine the effective management of fisheries, especially when management reference points are not adjusted...... accordingly. Recent changes in stock structures, conditions and stock mixing between eastern and western Baltic cod can jeopardize the reliability of stock assessments and of the fishery economy. We modelled how different management, individual vessel decision-making, and stock growth and mixing scenarios...... have induced alternative individual vessel spatial effort allocation and economic performance by affecting fishing costs and by changing the relative stock abundance and size distribution. Stock mixing heavily influences profit and stock abundance for stocks that have experienced increased fishing...

  6. A multiple-proxy approach to understanding rapid Holocene climate change in Southeast Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davin, S. H.; Bradley, R. S.; Balascio, N. L.; de Wet, G.

    2012-12-01

    The susceptibility of the Arctic to climate change has made it an excellent workshop for paleoclimatological research. Although there have been previous studies concerning climate variability carried out in the Arctic, there remains a critical dearth of knowledge due the limited number of high-resolution Holocene climate-proxy records available from this region. This gap skews our understanding of observed and predicted climate change, and fuels uncertainty both in the realms of science and policy. This study takes a comprehensive approach to tracking Holocene climate variability in the vicinity of Tasiilaq, Southeast Greenland using a ~5.6 m sediment core from Lower Sermilik Lake. An age-depth model for the core has been established using 8 radiocarbon dates, the oldest of which was taken at 4 m down core and has been been dated to approximately 6.2 kyr BP. The bottom meter of the core below the final radiocarbon date contains a transition from cobbles and coarse sand to organic-rich laminations, indicating the termination of direct glacial influence and therefore likely marking the end of the last glacial period in this region. The remainder of the core is similarly organic-rich, with light-to-dark brown laminations ranging from 0.5 -1 cm in thickness and riddled with turbidites. Using this core in tandem with findings from an on-site assessment of the geomorphic history of the locale we attempt to assess and infer the rapid climatic shifts associated with the Holocene on a sub-centennial scale. Such changes include the termination of the last glacial period, the Mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum, the Neoglacial Period, the Medieval Climatic Optimum, and the Little Ice Age. A multiple proxy approach including magnetic susceptibility, bulk organic geochemistry, elemental profiles acquired by XRF scanning, grain-size, and spectral data will be used to characterize the sediment and infer paleoclimate conditions. Additionally, percent biogenic silica by weight has been

  7. Modeling cavitation in a rapidly changing pressure field - application to a small ultrasonic horn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Žnidarčič, Anton; Mettin, Robert; Dular, Matevž

    2015-01-01

    Ultrasonic horn transducers are frequently used in applications of acoustic cavitation in liquids. It has been observed that if the horn tip is sufficiently small and driven at high amplitude, cavitation is very strong, and the tip can be covered entirely by the gas/vapor phase for longer time intervals. A peculiar dynamics of the attached cavity can emerge with expansion and collapse at a self-generated frequency in the subharmonic range, i.e. below the acoustic driving frequency. The term "acoustic supercavitation" was proposed for this type of cavitation Žnidarčič et al. (2014) [1]. We tested several established hydrodynamic cavitation models on this problem, but none of them was able to correctly predict the flow features. As a specific characteristic of such acoustic cavitation problems lies in the rapidly changing driving pressures, we present an improved approach to cavitation modeling, which does not neglect the second derivatives in the Rayleigh-Plesset equation. Comparison with measurements of acoustic supercavitation at an ultrasonic horn of 20kHz frequency revealed a good agreement in terms of cavity dynamics, cavity volume and emitted pressure pulsations. The newly developed cavitation model is particularly suited for simulation of cavitating flow in highly fluctuating driving pressure fields. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Dental and skeletal changes following surgically assisted rapid maxillary anterior-posterior expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Cheng-Ting; Lo, Lun-Jou; Liou, Eric J W; Huang, Chiung Shing

    2008-01-01

    Lengthening the maxillary dental arch as a treatment approach for patients with maxillary deficiency and dental crowding is seldom reported. The purpose of this study was to assess dental and skeletal changes in the maxilla in the correction of maxillary deficiency associated with a retruded maxillary arch using a surgically assisted rapid maxillary anterior-posterior expansion appliance. Predistraction and postraction lateral cephalometric and periapical radiographs and maxillary dental casts of six young adolescents (four boys, two girls, mean age 11 years, 2 months) were examined. These patients received a maxillary anterior segmental osteotomy and distraction osteogenesis with an anteroposteriorly oriented Hyrax expansion appliance based on the biological principles of bone distraction. The retruded dental arch and dental crowding were successfully corrected. Significant forward movement of the point anterior nasal spine, point A, central incisors and first premolars was noted. The maxillary dental arch depth increased an average of 4.2 mm while the arch width remained unchanged. In total, 11.5 mm of dental space was created in the maxillary arch which was sufficient to resolve dental crowding. New bone formation along the distraction site was observed three months after distraction. The use of maxillary anterior segmental osteotomy combined with a Hyrax expansion distraction appliance was effective in arch lengthening and creation of dental space. An overcorrection in this interdental distraction osteogenesis could be a good treatment option for children with maxillary deficiency combined with crowded maxillary dentition.

  9. Rapid changes in genetic architecture of behavioural syndromes following colonization of a novel environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson Green, K; Eroukhmanoff, F; Harris, S; Pettersson, L B; Svensson, E I

    2016-01-01

    Behavioural syndromes, that is correlated behaviours, may be a result from adaptive correlational selection, but in a new environmental setting, the trait correlation might act as an evolutionary constraint. However, knowledge about the quantitative genetic basis of behavioural syndromes, and the stability and evolvability of genetic correlations under different ecological conditions, is limited. We investigated the quantitative genetic basis of correlated behaviours in the freshwater isopod Asellus aquaticus. In some Swedish lakes, A. aquaticus has recently colonized a novel habitat and diverged into two ecotypes, presumably due to habitat-specific selection from predation. Using a common garden approach and animal model analyses, we estimated quantitative genetic parameters for behavioural traits and compared the genetic architecture between the ecotypes. We report that the genetic covariance structure of the behavioural traits has been altered in the novel ecotype, demonstrating divergence in behavioural correlations. Thus, our study confirms that genetic correlations behind behaviours can change rapidly in response to novel selective environments. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  10. Rapid morphological oscillation of mitochondrion-rich cell in estuarine mudskipper following salinity changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakamoto, T; Yokota, S; Ando, M

    2000-05-01

    Morphological changes in the chloride cells or mitochondrion-rich (MR) cells in the skin under the pectoral fin of the estuarine mudskipper (Periophthalmus modestus) were examined in relation to intertidal salinity oscillation in river mouth. MR cells were distinguished between those in contact with the water (cells labeled with both mitochondrial probe DASPEI and Concanavalin-A, an apical surface marker of MR cells) and those that are not (DASPEI-positive only). After transfer of the fish from seawater to freshwater, no difference in the total MR cell density was observed, but the subpopulation of MR cells that are Concanavalin-A-positive decreased dramatically within 30 min. After 6 hr in freshwater, the fish were returned to seawater; the number of Con-A-positive MR cells increased to the initial levels rapidly. Thus, in seawater, mudskippers seem to open the apical crypts of the MR cells to secrete salt; in freshwater, they close the crypt of the MR cells tentatively, and tolerate hypotonicity until the rising tide. This unique response of chloride cells may also be seen in gills of other estuarine species.

  11. Qualification Testing Versus Quantitative Reliability Testing of PV - Gaining Confidence in a Rapidly Changing Technology: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Repins, Ingrid L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hacke, Peter L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jordan, Dirk [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kempe, Michael D [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Whitfield, Kent [Underwriters Laboratories; Phillips, Nancy [DuPont; Sample, Tony [European Commission; Monokroussos, Christos [TUV Rheinland; Hsi, Edward [Swiss RE; Wohlgemuth, John [PowerMark Corporation; Seidel, Peter [First Solar; Jahn, Ulrike [TUV Rheinland; Tanahashi, Tadanori [National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology; Chen, Yingnan [China General Certification Center; Jaeckel, Bengt [Underwriters Laboratories; Yamamichi, Masaaki [RTS Corporation

    2017-10-05

    Continued growth of PV system deployment would be enhanced by quantitative, low-uncertainty predictions of the degradation and failure rates of PV modules and systems. The intended product lifetime (decades) far exceeds the product development cycle (months), limiting our ability to reduce the uncertainty of the predictions for this rapidly changing technology. Yet, business decisions (setting insurance rates, analyzing return on investment, etc.) require quantitative risk assessment. Moving toward more quantitative assessments requires consideration of many factors, including the intended application, consequence of a possible failure, variability in the manufacturing, installation, and operation, as well as uncertainty in the measured acceleration factors, which provide the basis for predictions based on accelerated tests. As the industry matures, it is useful to periodically assess the overall strategy for standards development and prioritization of research to provide a technical basis both for the standards and the analysis related to the application of those. To this end, this paper suggests a tiered approach to creating risk assessments. Recent and planned potential improvements in international standards are also summarized.

  12. German enterprises and the changes in energy economics due to increased concerns regarding environmental sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weber Gregor

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This article is part of a first year doctoral research regarding the current state of knowledge in environmental sustainability, energy economics and their impact on European enterprises. As the current changes and modifications of the German energy economics system are observed by people all around the globe, the current paper analyzes what has been said until now in the scientific literature on character of the new strategy for energy consumption and production in Germany and its impact on environmental and social sustainability. With the help of two questionnaire-based surveys conducted in 2013 and 2014 through the German DIHK1, German enterprises were surveyed in order to: identify potential differences and similarities between the two periods, identify the effects of the energy transition on companies’ profitability, and analyze these effects and compare the results in terms of potential trend developments. The research findings confirmed that changes in the energy system affect not only the environmental sustainability only, but also the economy, in some cases even independent of the stage in which the changing system of the economy presently is.

  13. Value for money of changing healthcare services? Economic evaluation of quality improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severens, J

    2003-01-01

    

 There are many instances of perceived or real inefficiencies in health service delivery. Both healthcare providers and policy makers need to know the impact and cost of applying strategies to change the behaviour of individuals or organisations. Quality improvement or implementation research is concerned with evaluating the methods of behavioural change. Addressing inefficiencies in healthcare services raises a series of issues, beginning with how inefficiency itself should be defined. The basic concepts of cost analysis and economic evaluations are explained and a model for working through the economic issues of quality improvement is discussed. This model combines the costs and benefits of corrected inefficiency with the costs and degree of behavioural change achieved by a quality improvement method in the policy maker's locality. It shows why it may not always be cost effective for policy makers to address suboptimal behaviour. Both the interpretation of quality improvement research findings and their local application need careful consideration. The limited availability of applicable quality improvement research may make it difficult to provide robust advice on the value for money of many behavioural quality improvement strategies. PMID:14532369

  14. The Economics of Health Damage and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe: A Review of the Conventional and Grey Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerardo Sanchez Martinez

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Economic evidence is a key component of public policy responses to complex societal and health problems, including climate change. Activities to protect human health from climate change should routinely be evaluated not only in terms of their effectiveness or unintended consequences, but also in terms of the health damage cost of inaction, the cost of health adaptation, and the monetized benefits of different alternatives. In this paper we reviewed the economic evidence on the health impacts of climate change and health-relevant adaptation within the 53 Member States of the World Health Organization (WHO European Region, including grey literature and conventional scientific literature. We found that the evidence base on the health economics of climate change is scarce, incomplete and inconsistent. Despite these shortcomings, the existing evidence clearly indicates that adaptation to avert the health impacts of climate change could provide substantial economic benefits, particularly in the poorer areas of the Region.

  15. Changing Ocean, Changing Economics: Impact of Rising Temperatures on the American Lobster Landings and on the US-Canada Lobster Economics in the Emerging Chinese Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, C. H. J.

    2016-02-01

    Record high temperatures in 2012 pushed the start date of the Maine lobster fishing season three weeks earlier than normal. High landings during a compressed time period more than doubled the volume experienced in June and July. As supply outpaced demand, an average 40% decrease in ex-vessel price significantly reduced fishermen's profitability. This study examined how the timing and location of lobster landings is affected by ocean temperatures, number of trips, distance fished from shore, price, and seasonality. Weekly lobster landings and the number of fishing trips in eastern, central, and western Maine from 2008 to 2014 were combined with NERACOOS buoy temperatures to model the change in productivity. The model shows warming leads to significant increases in landings. We also used monthly landings, prices, and trade of live and processed lobster between the U.S. and Canada from 1990 to 2014 to specify a system of equations that captures how both markets are integrated and how they respond to changing market conditions. The model shows that an increase in landings in both areas leads to an increase in lobster trade and then to an increase in US imports of frozen lobster meat. Furthermore, lobster exports to the emerging Chinese market started to expand after 2012 and grew to account for 21% and 11% of the exports value from U.S. and Canada, respectively. From 2010 to 2014, a sub-system model is specified to address how increasing demand in the Chinese market for hard-shell lobster could create incentives to delay production and increase the supply of hard-shell live lobster. The full model was then used to explore ways in which this coastal social-ecological system can adapt to increasing ocean temperature and how the integrated global market might alter the economic implications of the next ocean heatwave.

  16. Volumetric upper airway changes after rapid maxillary expansion: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buck, Lloyd M; Dalci, Oyku; Darendeliler, M Ali; Papageorgiou, Spyridon N; Papadopoulou, Alexandra K

    2017-10-01

    Although Rapid Maxillary Expansion (RME) has been used for over a century, its effect on upper airways has not yet adequately been assessed in an evidence-based manner. To investigate the volumetric changes in the upper airway spaces following RME in growing subjects by means of acoustic rhinometry, three-dimensional radiography and digital photogrammetry. Literature search of electronic databases and additional manual searches up to February 2016. Randomized clinical trials, prospective or retrospective controlled clinical trials and cohort clinical studies of at least eight patients, where the RME appliance was left in place for retention, and a maximum follow-up of 8 months post-expansion. After duplicate data extraction and assessment of the risk of bias, the mean differences and 95 per cent confidence intervals (CIs) of upper airway volume changes were calculated with random-effects meta-analyses, followed by subgroup analyses, meta-regressions, and sensitivity analyses. Twenty studies were eligible for qualitative synthesis, of which 17 (3 controlled clinical studies and 14 cohort studies) were used in quantitative analysis. As far as total airway volume is concerned patients treated with RME showed a significant increase post-expansion (5 studies; increase from baseline: 1218.3mm3; 95 per cent CI: 702.0 to 1734.6mm3), which did not seem to considerably diminish after the retention period (11 studies; increase from baseline: 1143.9mm3; 95 per cent CI: 696.9 to 1590.9mm3). However, the overall quality of evidence was judged as very low, due to methodological limitations of the included studies, absence of untreated control groups, and inconsistency among studies. RME seems to be associated with an increase in the nasal cavity volume in the short and in the long term. However, additional well-conducted prospective controlled clinical studies are needed to confirm the present findings. None. Australian Society of Orthodontics Foundation for Research and

  17. Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Tourism: Challenges for Ski Area Operators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damm, A.; Köberl, J.; Prettenthaler, F.; Töglhofer, C.

    2012-04-01

    Increasing temperatures and snow scarce winter seasons pose a big challenge for the winter tourism industry. Changing natural snow reliability influences tourism demand and ski area operators are faced with an enhanced need of technical snow production. The goal of the present research work is to analyze the economic effects of technical snow production under future climate conditions. Snowmaking as an adaptation strategy to climate change impacts on the ski tourism industry is already taken into consideration in several studies from a scientific perspective concerning snowmaking potentials under future climate conditions and the impacts on ski season length (e.g. Scott et al. 2003; Scott & McBoyle 2007; Hennessy et al. 2008; Steiger 2010). A few studies considered economic aspects of technical snowmaking (e.g. Teich et al. 2007; Gonseth 2008). However, a detailed analysis of the costs and benefits of snowmaking under future climate and snow conditions based on sophisticated climate and snow models has not been carried out yet. The present study addresses the gap of knowledge concerning the economic profitability of prospective snowmaking requirements under future climate scenarios. We carry out a detailed cost-revenue analysis of snowmaking under current and future climate conditions for a case study site in Styria (Austria) using dynamic investment models. The starting point of all economic calculations is the daily demand for artificial snow that determines the requirements for additional snowmaking investments and additional operating costs. The demand for artificial snow is delivered by the snow cover model AMUNDSEN (see Strasser et al. 2011) and is driven by four climate scenarios. Apart from future climate conditions the profitability of snowmaking depends on changes in costs and visitor numbers. The results of a ski tourism demand model analyzing daily visitor numbers and their dependencies of prevailing weather conditions enter the cost-revenue analysis of

  18. The pro-economical behaviour of households and their knowledge about changes in the energy market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ropuszyńska-Surma Edyta

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The behaviour of energy and heat consumers is an important and interesting topic. For a long time the energy market was the classical example of a monopoly. In general, households are weak partners for energy companies, but energy markets are changing all over the world. This trend is noticeable in Poland too, but it is not as strong as in Germany or other countries where renewable energy sources (RES are very popular and widely used. So, here we investigate why the development of RES in Poland is so weak. The main aim of the paper is to highlight the key factors, especially ecological and economic ones, determining households’ decisions about installing RES in Poland. An additional aim is to present the level of energy awareness of households. We conducted a survey of Lower Silesia’s households in November and December 2015. Economic factors are the best motivators for households to install RES. Among the economic aspects, the respondents indicated potential savings and potential profits.

  19. Socio-economic transformation of Akan funeral rites in Ghana: the changing process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boateng, Alice

    2012-01-01

    Cultural traditions at the end of life solidify societal members. As the world becomes more globalized, socio-economic factors affect how traditional practices are expressed, and the role and toll they make on modern societies. This article examines the contemporary Akan funeral practices in Ghana. Akan lineage members, from birth through puberty, marriage, maturity, old age, go through various rites of passage that bond them culturally and spiritually to others in society. One such ritual is funeral celebration. Funeral celebration, an old practice, has always been at the heart of public social events of Akan people. However, the changes in Ghanaian Akan funerals over the past 4 decades, and their impact on the people, make this an important topic. The article describes the Akan belief of life after death, the respect accorded to the dead, the prestige associated with successful funeral celebrations, and socio-economic factors that continue to shape Akan funeral practices. Socio-economic impact and the resulting challenges are discussed.

  20. Review of economic and energy sector implications of adopting global climate change policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Novak, M.H.

    1997-12-31

    This paper summarizes a number of studies examining potential economic impacts of global climate change policies. Implications for the United States as a whole, the U.S. energy sector, the U.S. economy, businesses and consumers, and world economies are considered. Impact assessments are performed of U.S. carbon emissions, carbon taxes, and carbon restrictions by comparing estimates from various organizations. The following conclusions were made from the economic studies: (1) the economic cost of carbon abatement is expensive; (2) the cost of unilateral action is very expensive with little quantifiable evidence that global emissions are reduced; (3) multilateral actions of developed countries are also very expensive, but there is quantifiable evidence of global emissions reductions; and (4) global actions have only been theoretically addressed. Paralleling these findings, the energy analyses show that the U.S. is technologically unprepared to give up fossil fuels. As a result: (1) carbon is not stabilized without a high tax, (2) stabilization of carbon is elusive, (3) technology is the only long-term answer, and (4) targeted programs may be appropriate to force technology development. 8 tabs.

  1. Economic and clinical effects of evaluating rapid viral response to peginterferon alfa-2b plus ribavirin for the initial treatment of chronic hepatitis C.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, John B; Davis, Gary L; McHutchison, John G; Manns, Michael P; Albrecht, Janice K

    2003-11-01

    Evaluation of 12-wk viral response to initial antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis C has been recommended to minimize antiviral-associated morbidity and costs. The aim of this study was to examine the economic and clinical effects of evaluating rapid viral response during antiviral therapy for treatment naive chronic hepatitis C patients. We applied viral response and drug dosage from an international randomized clinical trial of ribavirin plus peginterferon alfa-2b or ribavirin plus interferon alfa-2b to a previously published computer cohort simulation to project lifelong clinical and economic outcomes. Natural history and economic estimates were based on published literature, expert panel estimates, and actual variable and reimbursement cost data. The assessment of 12-wk rapid viral response reduced antiviral treatment duration by 40-44% and antiviral costs by 44-45% (savings of $15,116-16,268 for peginterferon plus ribavirin and $8300 for interferon plus ribavirin) compared to full 48-wk dosing. With the 12-wk evaluation, the marginal cost-effectiveness of peginterferon plus ribavirin versus interferon plus ribavirin was $13,600-22,800 compared with $14,600-25,000 per discounted quality adjusted life-year gained with the 24-wk evaluation. For genotype 1, hepatitis C infected patients, 12-wk testing for peginterferon plus ribavirin remaining preferred and cost-effective compared with interferon plus ribavirin. For genotype 2 or 3, hepatitis C infected patients, 12-wk testing yielded similar results to those of 24-wk treatment. Assessment of 12-wk viral response in genotype 1, hepatitis C infected patients should reduce peginterferon plus ribavirin morbidity and costs and improve its cost-effectiveness; however, for genotype 2 and 3, hepatitis C infected patients, 12-wk testing and 24-wk treatment have similar outcomes. Decisions regarding continuation of antiviral treatment should also consider the variability in the accuracy of quantitative viral assays as

  2. Five Decades of Remarkable but Slowing Change in U.S. Women's Economic and Social Status and Political Participation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Martha J; DiPrete, Thomas A

    2016-08-01

    The last fifty years of women's social and economic progress have been lauded as the "grand gender convergence," the "second demographic transition," and the "rise of women"-terms pointing to the remarkable transformation in women's social and economic roles since the 1960s. Many metrics document these changes.

  3. Analyzing the economic impacts of land use change: a framework and a case study for the Miombo woodlands, Zambia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hein, L.G.; Groot, de R.S.; Soma, K.

    2008-01-01

    One of the causes of unsustainable land management is a general lack of understanding of the economic impacts of land use change. This article presents a methodological framework for analyzing the economic costs of land degradation and the benefits of sustainable land management (SLM). The framework

  4. Assessing climate change and associated socio-economic scenarios for arable farming in the Netherlands: An application of benchmarking and bio-economic farm modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kanellopoulos, A.; Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2014-01-01

    Future farming systems are challenged to adapt to the changing socio-economic and bio-physical environment in order to remain competitive and to meet the increasing requirements for food and fibres. The scientific challenge is to evaluate the consequences of predefined scenarios, identify current

  5. Rapid small lot manufacturing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrigan, R.W.

    1998-05-09

    The direct connection of information, captured in forms such as CAD databases, to the factory floor is enabling a revolution in manufacturing. Rapid response to very dynamic market conditions is becoming the norm rather than the exception. In order to provide economical rapid fabrication of small numbers of variable products, one must design with manufacturing constraints in mind. In addition, flexible manufacturing systems must be programmed automatically to reduce the time for product change over in the factory and eliminate human errors. Sensor based machine control is needed to adapt idealized, model based machine programs to uncontrolled variables such as the condition of raw materials and fabrication tolerances.

  6. Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-01-01

    While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy.

  7. Rapid, easy and economical dot EIA for detection of antibodies to HIV-1 using recombinant env- and gag-proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, R; Glathe, H; Lang, H; Simon, H; Clausnitzer, R; Petzold, G; Dittmann, S

    1991-01-01

    A rapid and simple screening test for antibodies to HIV-1 was designed on the principle of dot-EIA. Recombinant HIV-1 env and gag polypeptides are fixed on nitrocellulose sheets. Peroxidase conjugated protein A is used for detection of bound antibodies. After addition of hydrogen peroxide and 2-bromo-1-naphtol antigen-antibody complexes are visualized as discrete blue coloured spots. The test is completed within 15 min. Out of 111 sera positive by commercial EIA and Western blot analysis 110 were recognized by dot-EIA (sensitivity: 99.1%). False positive results compared with commercial EIA were found in 2 of 423 healthy blood donors (specificity: 99.5%).

  8. Stakeholder perspectives on triage in wildlife monitoring in a rapidly changing Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen C Wheeler

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring activities provide a core contribution to wildlife conservation in the Arctic. Effective monitoring which allows changes in population status to be detected early, provides opportunities to mitigate pressures driving declines. Monitoring triage involves decisions about how and where to prioritise activities in species and ecosystem based monitoring. In particular, monitoring triage examines whether to divert resources away from species where there is high likelihood of extinction in the near-future in favour of species where monitoring activities may produce greater conservation benefits. As a place facing both rapid change with a high likelihood of population extinctions, and serious logistic and financial challenges for field data acquisition, the Arctic provides a good context in which to examine attitudes toward triage in monitoring.For effective decision-making to emerge from monitoring, multiple stakeholders must be involved in defining aims and priorities. We conducted semi-structured interviews with stakeholders in arctic wildlife monitoring (either contributing to observation and recording of wildlife, using information from wildlife observation and recording, or using wildlife as a resource to elicit their perspectives on triage in wildlife monitoring in the Arctic.The majority (56% of our 23 participants were predominantly in opposition to triage, 26% were in support of triage and 17% were undecided. Representatives of Indigenous organisations were more likely to be opposed to triage than scientists and those involved in decision-making showed greatest support for triage amongst the scientist participants. Responses to the concept of triage included that: 1 The species-focussed approach associated with triage did not match their more systems-based view (5 participants, 2 Important information is generated through monitoring threatened species which advances understanding of the drivers of change, responses and ecosystem

  9. Climate Informed Economic Instruments to Enhance Urban Water Supply Resilience to Hydroclimatological Variability and Change

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    Brown, C.; Carriquiry, M.; Souza Filho, F. A.

    2006-12-01

    Hydroclimatological variability presents acute challenges to urban water supply providers. The impact is often most severe in developing nations where hydrologic and climate variability can be very high, water demand is unmet and increasing, and the financial resources to mitigate the social effects of that variability are limited. Furthermore, existing urban water systems face a reduced solution space, constrained by competing and conflicting interests, such as irrigation demand, recreation and hydropower production, and new (relative to system design) demands to satisfy environmental flow requirements. These constraints magnify the impacts of hydroclimatic variability and increase the vulnerability of urban areas to climate change. The high economic and social costs of structural responses to hydrologic variability, such as groundwater utilization and the construction or expansion of dams, create a need for innovative alternatives. Advances in hydrologic and climate forecasting, and the increasing sophistication and acceptance of incentive-based mechanisms for achieving economically efficient water allocation offer potential for improving the resilience of existing water systems to the challenge of variable supply. This presentation will explore the performance of a system of climate informed economic instruments designed to facilitate the reduction of hydroclimatologic variability-induced impacts on water-sensitive stakeholders. The system is comprised of bulk water option contracts between urban water suppliers and agricultural users and insurance indexed on reservoir inflows designed to cover the financial needs of the water supplier in situations where the option is likely to be exercised. Contract and insurance parameters are linked to forecasts and the evolution of seasonal precipitation and streamflow and designed for financial and political viability. A simulation of system performance is presented based on ongoing work in Metro Manila, Philippines. The

  10. The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Road Infrastructure in Ghana

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    Daniel Kwabena Twerefou

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper estimates the economic impact of climate change on road infrastructure using the stressor-response methodology. Our analysis indicates that it could cumulatively (2020–2100 cost Ghana $473 million to maintain and repair damages caused to existing roads as a result of climate change (no adapt scenario. However, if the country adapts the design and construction of new road infrastructure, expected to occur over the asset’s lifespan (adapt scenario, the total cumulative cost could increase to $678.47 million due to the initial costs of adaptation. This investment provides lower costs on a decadal basis later in the infrastructure lifespan. This creates the planning question of whether lower decadal costs in the future are a priority or if minimizing initial costs is a priority. The paper addresses this question through decadal and average annual costs up to the year 2100 for the ten regions, using the potential impacts of 54 distinct potential climate scenarios.

  11. The social, political and economic changes in the Western Balkans: Managing diversity

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    Sela Ylber

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper gives a retrospective of the events in the Balkans in the last 20 years. Hence, it indicates the problems, the progress and the challenges in terms of respecting and promoting diversity. The Western Balkans has always been a very interesting region with many challenges during different historical periods. If we take into consideration all the differences and diversities in this region, then this shouldn’t strike us as surprising. During history the Balkan region has always been a crossroads of many events, conflicts, changes and destructive occurrences. In order to understand the connection between ethnic and the religious diversity, as well as the future of the Western Balkan countries in terms of Euro-Atlantic integration, we need to provide some information about the political, economic and social changes in these countries during the past, especially in the last two decades.

  12. Economics of technological change - A joint model for the aircraft and airline industries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kneafsey, J. T.; Taneja, N. K.

    1981-01-01

    The principal focus of this econometric model is on the process of technological change in the U.S. aircraft manufacturing and airline industries. The problem of predicting the rate of introduction of current technology aircraft into an airline's fleet during the period of research, development, and construction for new technology aircraft arises in planning aeronautical research investments. The approach in this model is a statistical one. It attempts to identify major factors that influence transport aircraft manufacturers and airlines, and to correlate them with the patterns of delivery of new aircraft to the domestic trunk carriers. The functional form of the model has been derived from several earlier econometric models on the economics of innovation, acquisition, and technological change.

  13. Risky Business and the American Climate Prospectus: Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, K.; Houser, T.; Kopp, R. E., III; Hsiang, S. M.; Larsen, K.; Jina, A.; Delgado, M.; Muir-Wood, R.; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.; Mastrandrea, M.; Wilson, P. S.

    2014-12-01

    The United States faces a range of economic risks from global climate change - from increased flooding and storm damage, to climate-driven changes in crop yields and labor productivity, to heat-related strains on energy and public health systems. The Risky Business Project commissioned a groundbreaking new analysis of these and other climate risks by region of the country and sector of the economy. The American Climate Prospectus (ACP) links state-of-the-art climate models with econometric research of human responses to climate variability and cutting edge private sector risk assessment tools, the ACP offers decision-makers a data driven assessment of the specific risks they face. We describe the challenge, methods, findings, and policy implications of the national risk analysis, with particular focus on methodological innovations and novel insights.

  14. THE SOCIAL-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF THE CLIMATE CHANGES IN ROMANIA

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    Gheorghe ZAMAN

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available The social-economic implication of climatic changes in Romania are analysed under the following viewpoints: causes and effects; prevention and abatement; adjustment; institutional aspects of environmental management. The main reason of climatic changes is generated by the greenhouse effect (GE that determines the heating of the terrestrial surface, melt-down of icebergs, tornados, draughts and flooding more frequently and of increasing intensity. These extreme meteorological phenomena determine, over time, increasing human and material losses, which imposes measures with effects on short-, medium- and long-term for diminishing the greenhouse effect in accordance with the commitments and provisions of the Kyoto Protocol and the requirements for the sustainable development of the country. Proposals are made with respect to integrating environmental issues into economic and social development strategies, emphasising the need for increasing environment financing and attaching more importance to the Ministry of Environment which must couple its policy with the acquis communautaire and the EU programme for combating and preventing GE impact.

  15. Economic changes, competitiveness and population welfare within Mexico’s northwest region in globalization

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    Mario Camberos C.

    2002-07-01

    Full Text Available The widely straightforward opening of the Mexican economy to the international market, has provided a group of transformations and has generated more economic expectations; however, from a distance of 15 years that the procces has been brought into life, it is important to verify not only the benefits in terms of the trade increasing, but also the changes in the population’s well-being. Therefore, we have selected a region: the Northwestern of Mexico (NWR, defined as the geographic space which resembles the states of Baja California, Baja California Sur, Nayarit, Sinaloa, and Sonora, with 21% of the national territory, 8.7% Mexico´s total population, and 9.09% of the gross domestic product (GDP.In this paper, we observed changes upon 1988, firstly on the economic structure: GDP, employment, and external sector. Secondly, we found that, for the last decade, the well-being level worsened-off. In this way, the open trading policy from Mexico to the world has not produced, until now, the required expected benefits to the households and the Northwestern region of Mexico, inserted in an active way in the internationalized world, not only with North America, but also with the Pacific Basin region.

  16. Change or continuity: an interpretation of the economic politics of Lula’s government

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    André MOREIRA CUNHA

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In the first year of government, the administration of Lula implanted a macroeconomic politics characterized by a strong fiscal and monetary restriction and for structural reformations (tributary and of the Social Security before criticized by the Party of the Workers and for its bases of social support in the last two decades. Keeping in mind these facts and the international expectation generated by the election of a government of left in Brazil in front of the crisis of the neoliberal pattern in Latin America, this article has for objective to analyses: (i the economic circumstances of the government’s principle Lula that conditioned the adoption of a transition strategy; (ii the results of this strategy; and (iii the aspects of continuity and change in the new government. Empiric evidences that sustain that the margin of manoeuvre of the new administration was sensibly narrow as to promote deep changes in the economic politics’s conduction, are presented. However, to part of those restrictions, inherited of the deregulated adjustment of the nineties, the government of Lula opted for the adoption of a group of politicians that will be able to generate a new trap of low growth with macroeconomic uncertainty, in the terms of that experienced in last decade.

  17. Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2012-12-01

    Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.

  18. VECTORS of change in the marine environment: Ecosystem and economic impacts and management implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austen, M. C.; Crowe, T. P.; Elliott, M.; Paterson, D. M.; Peck, M. A.; Piraino, S.

    2018-02-01

    Human use of the European marine environment is increasing and diversifying. This is creating new mechanisms for human induced-changes in marine life which need to be understood and quantified as well as the impact of these changes on ecosystems, their structures (e.g. biodiversity) and functioning (e.g. productivity), and the social and economic consequences that arise. The current and emerging pressures are multiple and interacting, arising, for example, from transport, platforms for renewable and non-renewable energy, exploitation of living and non-living resources, agricultural and industrial discharges, together with wider environmental changes (including climate change). Anticipating the future consequences of these pressures and vectors of change for marine life and of adaptation and mitigation measures (such as the introduction of new technologies and structures, new ballast water practices, ocean and offshore wind energy devices and new fishing strategies) is a prerequisite to the development and implementation of strategies, policies and regulations to manage the marine environment, such as the IMO Convention on ballast water management and the EU Maritime Policy and Marine Strategy Framework Directive.

  19. A global economic assessment of city policies to reduce climate change impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, Francisco; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; Tol, Richard S. J.

    2017-06-01

    Climate change impacts can be especially large in cities. Several large cities are taking climate change into account in long-term strategies, for which it is important to have information on the costs and benefits of adaptation. Studies on climate change impacts in cities mostly focus on a limited set of countries and risks, for example sea-level rise, health and water resources. Most of these studies are qualitative, except for the costs of sea-level rise in cities. These impact estimates do not take into account that large cities will experience additional warming due to the urban heat island effect, that is, the change of local climate patterns caused by urbanization. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of the economic costs of the joint impacts of local and global climate change for all main cities around the world. Cost-benefit analyses are presented of urban heat island mitigation options, including green and cool roofs and cool pavements. It is shown that local actions can be a climate risk-reduction instrument. Furthermore, limiting the urban heat island through city adaptation plans can significantly amplify the benefits of international mitigation efforts.

  20. Diverse multi-decadal changes in streamflow within a rapidly urbanizing region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diem, Jeremy E.; Hill, T. Chee; Milligan, Richard A.

    2018-01-01

    The impact of urbanization on streamflow depends on a variety of factors (e.g., climate, initial land cover, inter-basin transfers, water withdrawals, wastewater effluent, etc.). The purpose of this study is to examine trends in streamflow from 1986 to 2015 in a range of watersheds within the rapidly urbanizing Atlanta, GA metropolitan area. This study compares eight watersheds over three decades, while minimizing the influence of inter-annual precipitation variability. Population and land-cover data were used to analyze changes over approximately twenty years within the watersheds. Precipitation totals for the watersheds were estimated using precipitation totals at nearby weather stations. Multiple streamflow variables, such as annual streamflow, frequencies of high-flow days (HFDs), flashiness, and precipitation-adjusted streamflow, for the eight streams were calculated using daily streamflow data. Variables were tested for significant trends from 1986 to 2015 and significant differences between 1986-2000 and 2001-2015. Flashiness increased for all streams without municipal water withdrawals, and the four watersheds with the largest increase in developed land had significant increases in flashiness. Significant positive trends in precipitation-adjusted mean annual streamflow and HFDs occurred for the two watersheds (Big Creek and Suwanee Creek) that experienced the largest increases in development, and these were the only watersheds that went from majority forest land in 1986 to majority developed land in 2015. With a disproportionate increase in HFD occurrence during summer, Big Creek and Suwannee Creek also had a reduction in intra-annual variability of HFD occurrence. Watersheds that were already substantially developed at the beginning of the period and did not have wastewater discharge had declining streamflow. The most urbanized watershed (Peachtree Creek) had a significant decrease in streamflow, and a possible cause of the decrease was increasing

  1. Transcranial Random Noise Stimulation (tRNS Shapes the Processing of Rapidly Changing Auditory Information

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    Katharina S. Rufener

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Neural oscillations in the gamma range are the dominant rhythmic activation pattern in the human auditory cortex. These gamma oscillations are functionally relevant for the processing of rapidly changing acoustic information in both speech and non-speech sounds. Accordingly, there is a tight link between the temporal resolution ability of the auditory system and inherent neural gamma oscillations. Transcranial random noise stimulation (tRNS has been demonstrated to specifically increase gamma oscillation in the human auditory cortex. However, neither the physiological mechanisms of tRNS nor the behavioral consequences of this intervention are completely understood. In the present study we stimulated the human auditory cortex bilaterally with tRNS while EEG was continuously measured. Modulations in the participants’ temporal and spectral resolution ability were investigated by means of a gap detection task and a pitch discrimination task. Compared to sham, auditory tRNS increased the detection rate for near-threshold stimuli in the temporal domain only, while no such effect was present for the discrimination of spectral features. Behavioral findings were paralleled by reduced peak latencies of the P50 and N1 component of the auditory event-related potentials (ERP indicating an impact on early sensory processing. The facilitating effect of tRNS was limited to the processing of near-threshold stimuli while stimuli clearly below and above the individual perception threshold were not affected by tRNS. This non-linear relationship between the signal-to-noise level of the presented stimuli and the effect of stimulation further qualifies stochastic resonance (SR as the underlying mechanism of tRNS on auditory processing. Our results demonstrate a tRNS related improvement in acoustic perception of time critical auditory information and, thus, provide further indices that auditory tRNS can amplify the resonance frequency of the auditory system.

  2. Extremely rapid directional change during Matuyama-Brunhes geomagnetic polarity reversal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagnotti, Leonardo; Scardia, Giancarlo; Giaccio, Biagio; Liddicoat, Joseph C.; Nomade, Sebastien; Renne, Paul R.; Sprain, Courtney J.

    2014-11-01

    We report a palaeomagnetic investigation of the last full geomagnetic field reversal, the Matuyama-Brunhes (M-B) transition, as preserved in a continuous sequence of exposed lacustrine sediments in the Apennines of Central Italy. The palaeomagnetic record provides the most direct evidence for the tempo of transitional field behaviour yet obtained for the M-B transition. 40Ar/39Ar dating of tephra layers bracketing the M-B transition provides high-accuracy age constraints and indicates a mean sediment accumulation rate of about 0.2 mm yr-1 during the transition. Two relative palaeointensity (RPI) minima are present in the M-B transition. During the terminus of the upper RPI minimum, a directional change of about 180 ° occurred at an extremely fast rate, estimated to be less than 2 ° per year, with no intermediate virtual geomagnetic poles (VGPs) documented during the transit from the southern to northern hemisphere. Thus, the entry into the Brunhes Normal Chron as represented by the palaeomagnetic directions and VGPs developed in a time interval comparable to the duration of an average human life, which is an order of magnitude more rapid than suggested by current models. The reported investigation therefore provides high-resolution integrated palaeomagnetic and radioisotopic data that document the fine details of the anatomy and tempo of the M-B transition in Central Italy that in turn are crucial for a better understanding of Earth's magnetic field, and for the development of more sophisticated models that are able to describe its global structure and behaviour.

  3. Rapid Changes in CB1 Receptor Availability in Cannabis Dependent Males after Abstinence from Cannabis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Souza, Deepak Cyril; Cortes-Briones, Jose A; Ranganathan, Mohini; Thurnauer, Halle; Creatura, Gina; Surti, Toral; Planeta, Beata; Neumeister, Alexander; Pittman, Brian; Normandin, Marc; Kapinos, Michael; Ropchan, Jim; Huang, Yiyun; Carson, Richard E; Skosnik, Patrick D

    2016-01-01

    The widespread use of cannabis, the increasing legalization of "medical" cannabis, the increasing potency of cannabis and the growing recreational use of synthetic cannabinoid 1 receptor (CB1R) full agonists underscores the importance of elucidating the effects of cannabinoids on the CB1R system. Exposure to cannabinoids is known to result in CB1R downregulation. However, the precise time course of changes in CB1R availability in cannabis dependent subjects (CDs) following short and intermediate term abstinence has not been determined. Using High Resolution Research Tomography (HRRT) and [(11)C]OMAR, CB1R availability as indexed by the volume of distribution (VT) [(11)C]OMAR was measured in male CDs (n=11) and matched healthy controls (HCs) (n=19). CDs were scanned at baseline (while they were neither intoxicated nor in withdrawal), and after 2 days and 28 days of monitored abstinence. HCs were scanned at baseline and a subset (n=4) was rescanned 28 days later. Compared to HCs, [(11)C]OMAR VT was 15% lower in CDs (effect size Cohen's d=-1.11) at baseline in almost all brain regions. However, these group differences in CB1R availability were no longer evident after just 2 days of monitored abstinence from cannabis. There was a robust negative correlation between CB1R availability and withdrawal symptoms after 2 days of abstinence. Finally, there were no significant group differences in CB1R availability in CDs after 28 days of abstinence. Cannabis dependence is associated with CB1R downregulation, which begins to reverse surprisingly rapidly upon termination of cannabis use and may continue to increase over time.

  4. Competition for cognitive resources during rapid serial processing: changes across childhood

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    Sabine eHeim

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The ability to direct cognitive resources to target objects despite distraction by competing information plays an important role for the development of mental aptitudes and skills. We examined developmental changes of this ability in a cross-sectional design, using the attentional blink (AB paradigm. The AB is a pronounced impairment of T2 report, which occurs when a first (T1 and second target (T2 embedded in a rapid stimulus sequence are separated by at least one distractor and occur within 500 ms of each other. Two groups of children (6 to 7 year-olds and 10 to 11 year-olds; ns = 21 and 24, respectively were asked to identify green targets in two AB tasks: one using non-linguistic symbols and the other letters or words. The temporal distance or stimulus-onset asynchrony (SOA between T1 and T2 varied between no intervening distractor (Lag 1, 116-ms SOA and up to 7 intervening distractors (Lag 8, 928-ms SOA. In the symbol task, younger children linearly increased T2 identification with increasing lag. Older children, however, displayed a hook-shaped pattern as typically seen in adults, with lowest identification reports in T2 symbols at the critical blink interval (Lag 2, 232-ms SOA, and a slight performance gain for the Lag-1 condition. In the verbal task, the older group again exhibited a prominent drop in T2 identification at Lag 2, whereas the younger group showed a more alleviated and temporally diffuse AB impairment. Taken together, this pattern of results suggests that the control of attention allocation and/or working memory consolidation of targets among distractors represents a cognitive skill that emerges during primary school age.

  5. A rapid, highly efficient and economical method of Agrobacterium-mediated in planta transient transformation in living onion epidermis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kedong; Huang, Xiaohui; Wu, Manman; Wang, Yan; Chang, Yunxia; Liu, Kun; Zhang, Ju; Zhang, Yi; Zhang, Fuli; Yi, Liming; Li, Tingting; Wang, Ruiyue; Tan, Guangxuan; Li, Chengwei

    2014-01-01

    Transient transformation is simpler, more efficient and economical in analyzing protein subcellular localization than stable transformation. Fluorescent fusion proteins were often used in transient transformation to follow the in vivo behavior of proteins. Onion epidermis, which has large, living and transparent cells in a monolayer, is suitable to visualize fluorescent fusion proteins. The often used transient transformation methods included particle bombardment, protoplast transfection and Agrobacterium-mediated transformation. Particle bombardment in onion epidermis was successfully established, however, it was expensive, biolistic equipment dependent and with low transformation efficiency. We developed a highly efficient in planta transient transformation method in onion epidermis by using a special agroinfiltration method, which could be fulfilled within 5 days from the pretreatment of onion bulb to the best time-point for analyzing gene expression. The transformation conditions were optimized to achieve 43.87% transformation efficiency in living onion epidermis. The developed method has advantages in cost, time-consuming, equipment dependency and transformation efficiency in contrast with those methods of particle bombardment in onion epidermal cells, protoplast transfection and Agrobacterium-mediated transient transformation in leaf epidermal cells of other plants. It will facilitate the analysis of protein subcellular localization on a large scale.

  6. A Rapid, Highly Efficient and Economical Method of Agrobacterium-Mediated In planta Transient Transformation in Living Onion Epidermis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kedong; Huang, Xiaohui; Wu, Manman; Wang, Yan; Chang, Yunxia; Liu, Kun; Zhang, Ju; Zhang, Yi; Zhang, Fuli; Yi, Liming; Li, Tingting; Wang, Ruiyue; Tan, Guangxuan; Li, Chengwei

    2014-01-01

    Transient transformation is simpler, more efficient and economical in analyzing protein subcellular localization than stable transformation. Fluorescent fusion proteins were often used in transient transformation to follow the in vivo behavior of proteins. Onion epidermis, which has large, living and transparent cells in a monolayer, is suitable to visualize fluorescent fusion proteins. The often used transient transformation methods included particle bombardment, protoplast transfection and Agrobacterium-mediated transformation. Particle bombardment in onion epidermis was successfully established, however, it was expensive, biolistic equipment dependent and with low transformation efficiency. We developed a highly efficient in planta transient transformation method in onion epidermis by using a special agroinfiltration method, which could be fulfilled within 5 days from the pretreatment of onion bulb to the best time-point for analyzing gene expression. The transformation conditions were optimized to achieve 43.87% transformation efficiency in living onion epidermis. The developed method has advantages in cost, time-consuming, equipment dependency and transformation efficiency in contrast with those methods of particle bombardment in onion epidermal cells, protoplast transfection and Agrobacterium-mediated transient transformation in leaf epidermal cells of other plants. It will facilitate the analysis of protein subcellular localization on a large scale. PMID:24416168

  7. A rapid, highly efficient and economical method of Agrobacterium-mediated in planta transient transformation in living onion epidermis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kedong Xu

    Full Text Available Transient transformation is simpler, more efficient and economical in analyzing protein subcellular localization than stable transformation. Fluorescent fusion proteins were often used in transient transformation to follow the in vivo behavior of proteins. Onion epidermis, which has large, living and transparent cells in a monolayer, is suitable to visualize fluorescent fusion proteins. The often used transient transformation methods included particle bombardment, protoplast transfection and Agrobacterium-mediated transformation. Particle bombardment in onion epidermis was successfully established, however, it was expensive, biolistic equipment dependent and with low transformation efficiency. We developed a highly efficient in planta transient transformation method in onion epidermis by using a special agroinfiltration method, which could be fulfilled within 5 days from the pretreatment of onion bulb to the best time-point for analyzing gene expression. The transformation conditions were optimized to achieve 43.87% transformation efficiency in living onion epidermis. The developed method has advantages in cost, time-consuming, equipment dependency and transformation efficiency in contrast with those methods of particle bombardment in onion epidermal cells, protoplast transfection and Agrobacterium-mediated transient transformation in leaf epidermal cells of other plants. It will facilitate the analysis of protein subcellular localization on a large scale.

  8. Dual-energy synchrotron X ray measurements of rapid soil density and water content changes in swelling soils during infiltration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garnier, Patricia; Angulo-Jaramillo, Rafael; DiCarlo, David A.; Bauters, Tim W. J.; Darnault, Christophe J. G.; Steenhuis, Tammo S.; Parlange, J.-Yves; Baveye, Philippe

    1998-11-01

    Understanding soil swelling is hampered by the difficulty of simultaneously measuring water content and bulk density. A number of studies have used dual-energy gamma rays to investigate soil swelling. The long counting time of this technique makes it impracticable for studying the rapid changes in moisture content and soil swelling shortly after infiltration is initiated. In this paper, we use the dual-energy synchrotron X ray to measure, for the first time, the water content and bulk density changes during the fast, initial phase of the swelling process. Ponded infiltration experiments were performed with two soils: a bentonite-sand mixture and a vertisol. Swelling curves and hydraulic diffusivity were determined. Deformation was very rapid immediately after water application and then became progressively slower. The hydraulic diffusivity decreased with time, which can partially explain the very rapid decrease in infiltration rates observed in the field.

  9. Climate change impacts on North African countries and on some Tunisian economic sectors

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    Leila Radhouane

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Global temperature is increasing and that the main cause is the accumulation of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere as a result of human activities. The economic costs alone will be very large: as extreme weather events such as droughts and floods become more destructive and frequent; communities, cities, and island nations are damaged or inundated as sea level rises; and agricultural output is disrupted. Impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are also likely to be devastating. But what about Climate change impacts on water resources and agriculture in North African regions and especially on Tunisia country? North Africa is vulnerable to climate change impacts. Scenarios predict an average rise in annual temperatures, higher than the average expected for the planet. Heat waves would then be more numerous, longer and more intense. North Africa would be particularly affected by droughts that would be more frequent, more intense and longer-lasting. The projections also announce a drop of 4 to 27% in annual rainfall. The water deficit will be worsened by increased evaporation and coastal aquifers will become more salty. The sea level could rise by 23-47 cm. by the end of the 21st century. Many Mediterranean regions would then run a major risk of being submerged and eroded. In North Africa, rising temperatures associated with climate change are expected to decrease the land areas suitable for agriculture, shorten the length of growing seasons and reduce crop yields. In these countries, we estimate that a 1°C rise in temperature in a given year reduces economic growth in that year by about 1.1 points. The decrease in annual precipitation that is predicted for Northern Africa in the 21st century will exacerbate these effects, particularly in semiarid and arid regions that rely on irrigation for crop growth. These effects of climate change are more dramatic for Tunisia country especially for water resources and arable cropland

  10. Organizational Adaptation to the Rapidly Changing External Environment: A Case Study of Strategic Marketing at Notre Dame College in Ohio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Shawn M.

    2012-01-01

    This thesis examined the role of strategic marketing in organizational adaptation to a rapidly changing and competitive external environment among institutions of higher education. Colleges and universities adapt to external pressures as open systems operating within a broader external environment (Bess & Dee, 2008; Keller, 1983). How does…

  11. Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melvin, April M; Larsen, Peter; Boehlert, Brent; Neumann, James E; Chinowsky, Paul; Espinet, Xavier; Martinich, Jeremy; Baumann, Matthew S; Rennels, Lisa; Bothner, Alexandra; Nicolsky, Dmitry J; Marchenko, Sergey S

    2017-01-10

    Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled $5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3% discount) for RCP8.5 and $4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by $1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to $2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and $2.3 billion for RCP4.5. For road flooding, adaptation provided an annual savings of 80-100% across four study eras. For nearly all infrastructure types and time periods evaluated, damages and adaptation costs were larger for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Estimated coastal erosion losses were also larger for RCP8.5.

  12. Organizational Change and Corporate Sustainability in an Economic Crisis: Evidence from Slovenia

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    Matevž Rasković

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to analyze the link between perceived levels of organizational process changes, vis-à-vis selected organization-to-employee relationship dimensions based on the Hackman and Oldham (1975 Job diagnostic survey and marketing performance measures. We follow Pettigrew, Woodman and Cameron (2001 in their call for a deeper understanding of the link between the various elements of the organizational change process itself, and organizational performance outcomes. Our analysis is based on data from over 220 organizations, and over 22,800 of their employees in Slovenia between 2008 and 2010. Our analysis shows that the perceived levels of organizational change (OC are the highest for marketing and HRM processes, relative to other organizational processes. Furthermore, we establish that a higher organization-to-employee relationship quality is in myriad ways linked to higher perceived levels of OC in HRM processes. However, this is true only for the initial phase of the current economic crisis (2008 and 2009, but not also for its subsequent widening (2010. On the other hand, the correlation comparison between selected marketing performance measures and perceived level of OC in marketing processes is also significantly linked also to customer loyalty. Lastly, by analyzing the correlations between perceived levels OC and corporate sustainability (as added value per employee we can see that perceived levels of OC in marketing and production processes display high correlations in the beginning of the economic crisis (2008, but not afterward (2009 or 2010. In addition, perceived levels of OC related to HRM do not correlate with added value per employee in any of the three compared years. This shows a different nature of the relationship between specific areas of perceived OC and corporate sustainability, as measured by added value per employee.

  13. The economics of ecosystems and biodiversity, REDD+ and climate change in mangrove ecosystems of Southeast Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filiberto Pollisco

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Mangroves are trees and shrubs that grow in saline coastal habitats. They occupy large stretches of the sub-tropical and tropical coastlines around the world. They not only provide valuable goods such as timber, fish and medicinal plants but also vital ecological services, such as prevention of coastal erosion. They also help buffer coastal communities from storms and floods. During the ASEAN Conference on Biodiversity held in Singapore in 2009, Ellison reported that mangrove forests in South East Asia are among the highest biodiversity resources in the world, occupying an area of 60.9 x 102 km2. Unfortunately, the region also has the highest rates of mangrove loss in the world, losing 628 km2 per year in two decades. In many parts of the world, where mangrove forests have been cleared, there are now problems of erosion and siltation, and loss of life and property have occurred due to destructive hurricanes, storms and tsunamis. The complex relationship between climate change and mangrove ecosystems can be seen from two different angles. On the one hand, mangrove ecosystems have a critical function in combating climate change; on the other hand, they are affected by climate change. The values of ecosystems vary according to local biophysical and ecological circumstances and the social, economic and cultural context. Intangible values, which may be reflected in society’s willingness to pay to conserve particular species or landscapes, or to protect common resources, must be considered alongside more tangible values such as food or timber to provide a complete economic picture. This has important implications for mangrove conservation strategies and suggests that the preservation of contiguous areas is preferable to patches that are spatially dispersed.

  14. Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melvin, April M.; Larsen, Peter; Boehlert, Brent; Neumann, James E.; Chinowsky, Paul; Espinet, Xavier; Martinich, Jeremy; Baumann, Matthew S.; Rennels, Lisa; Bothner, Alexandra; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Marchenko, Sergey S.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled $5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3% discount) for RCP8.5 and $4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by $1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to $2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and $2.3 billion for RCP4.5. For road flooding, adaptation provided an annual savings of 80–100% across four study eras. For nearly all infrastructure types and time periods evaluated, damages and adaptation costs were larger for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Estimated coastal erosion losses were also larger for RCP8.5. PMID:28028223

  15. MR Diffusion Tensor Imaging Detects Rapid Microstructural Changes in Amygdala and Hippocampus Following Fear Conditioning in Mice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Abby Y.; Li, Qi; Zhou, Iris Y.; Ma, Samantha J.; Tong, Gehua; McAlonan, Grainne M.; Wu, Ed X.

    2013-01-01

    Background Following fear conditioning (FC), ex vivo evidence suggests that early dynamics of cellular and molecular plasticity in amygdala and hippocampal circuits mediate responses to fear. Such altered dynamics in fear circuits are thought to be etiologically related to anxiety disorders including posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Consistent with this, neuroimaging studies of individuals with established PTSD in the months after trauma have revealed changes in brain regions responsible for processing fear. However, whether early changes in fear circuits can be captured in vivo is not known. Methods We hypothesized that in vivo magnetic resonance diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) would be sensitive to rapid microstructural changes elicited by FC in an experimental mouse PTSD model. We employed a repeated measures paired design to compare in vivo DTI measurements before, one hour after, and one day after FC-exposed mice (n = 18). Results Using voxel-wise repeated measures analysis, fractional anisotropy (FA) significantly increased then decreased in amygdala, decreased then increased in hippocampus, and was increasing in cingulum and adjacent gray matter one hour and one day post-FC respectively. These findings demonstrate that DTI is sensitive to early changes in brain microstructure following FC, and that FC elicits distinct, rapid in vivo responses in amygdala and hippocampus. Conclusions Our results indicate that DTI can detect rapid microstructural changes in brain regions known to mediate fear conditioning in vivo. DTI indices could be explored as a translational tool to capture potential early biological changes in individuals at risk for developing PTSD. PMID:23382811

  16. CHANGES OF LEARNERS’ SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT AFTER COMPLETING A PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION FROM BANGLADESH OPEN UNIVERSITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. M. Iftekhar KHALID

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Creating same opportunity in term of social and economic context for the learners of distance education as the students from conventional education is a challenging task since professional education through distance method is a new genre in Bangladesh. This genre of professional education starts successfully with the establishment of the Bangladesh Open University (BOU in 1992. The university creates immense opportunities to study anytime and anywhere. This paper explains what social and economic changes happened to the students who completed a professional programme like B.Ag.Ed, MBA, CEMBA and CEMPA at the Bangladesh Open University. As BOU is the first and pioneer organization, which provides education in distance mode, a study has been necessary for BOU to know what contribution it provides to the nation in social and economic aspects. This paper should be able to elevate the morale of the organizations like BOU in involving more effort for expanding the organization and also to understand how successful these organization in imparting the knowledge and skill and how effectively the students are able to use those knowledge and skill in their professional life which in turn affects the learners’ income and social esteem. The university has been established with aims to raise the standard of education and to give the people educational opportunities by democratizing education and to create a class of competent people by raising the standard of education of the people generally. The paper also shows how the professional programmes of BOU supports to achieve the Millennium Development Goals in Bangladesh.

  17. Networks of European cities in worlds of global economic and environmental change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ben Derudder

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Geographers use a variety of economic, social, and demographic data to measure the importance of global cities and the linkages between cities. We analyze the importance and connectedness of European cities using hyperlinks, or the electronic information provided by the Google Search engine. Hyperlinks are Web sites representing information that is produced; they are especially useful in measuring the impact of contemporary crises. We use the phrases economic slowdown and global financial crisis to derive a Global Financial Score (GFS for 16 core, semiperiphery and peripheral European cities and global warming and climate change to derive a Global Environmental Score (GES. London and Paris are in the European core; Rome, Dublin, Madrid and Prague are in the semiperiphery; while Tallinn, Riga, and Belgrade are in the periphery. A strong positive relationship exists between the GES and GFS. We examine the linkages of the 16 cities to the 100 largest world cities and illustrate, with “clockgrams,” the linkages London, Brussels and Athens have with other world cities. We calculated the number of linkages each of the 16 cities had with other world cities to identify Europe’s urban cores, semiperipheries, peripheries, and deep peripheries. New York is in the core of both the economic and environmental maps. Some world cities are in the semiperiphery of one category and periphery of another. Milan, Istanbul, and Delhi are in the deep periphery for the GFS while Toronto and Athens are for the GES. Hyperlinks represent valuable databases to measure the impact of crises and regional and global urban linkages.

  18. Integrating local knowledge and science: economic consequences of driftwood harvest in a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chas E. Jones

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The integration of local knowledge and science represents an opportunity to enhance the understanding of interrelations among climate, hydrology, and socioeconomic systems while providing mutual benefits to scientists and rural communities. Insight from rural Alaskans helped to identify a social-ecological threshold used to model potential driftwood harvest from the Yukon River. Information from residents of Tanana, Alaska, was combined with scientific data to model driftwood harvest rates. Modeling results estimated that between 1980 and 2010, hydrologic factors alone were responsible for a 29% decrease in the annual wood harvest, which approximately balanced a 23% reduction in wood demand because of a decline in number of households. The community's installation of wood-fired boilers in 2007 created a threshold increase (76% in wood demand that is not met by driftwood harvest. Modeling analyses of numerous climatic scenarios illustrated that increases in hydrologic variability would decrease the reliability of future driftwood harvest. Economic analyses demonstrated that increased climatic variability could have serious economic consequences for subsistence users while demanding more of their time. Lost time is important because it reduces their availability for performing other subsistence activities and learning to adapt to climate-related challenges. Our research may benefit communities by providing a tool that can be used to predict the timing and duration of driftwood runs. Information gathered from discussions with local stakeholders provided critical information for model development and thus provided a better understanding of regional social-ecological dynamics. Our research also illustrates the potential for regional-scale adaptations to limit the social-ecological impacts of environmental change, while providing economic opportunities and energy independence that reduce their vulnerability to variations in climate.

  19. Changes in socio-economic and health condition of rehabilitated slum dwellers in Kolkata, West Bengal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.H. Askari

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The cancerous spread of slum has been a rampant problem in urban areas worldwide. The acute shortage of housing facilities compels the poor to live in slums. Proper rehabilitation is considered as a very essential remedial measure to provide better living environment to slum peoples. This study is an essential attempt to gauge the effectiveness of a rehabilitation program, which studies the changes in socio-economic and health condition of rehabilitated slum dwellers since they got rehabilitated. In order to do so, a household survey was carried comprising 240 households in two rehabilitated sites in the city of Kolkata (ward no. 107 and 114 during the month of July, 2014. The results conforms a strand of a belief that in-situ rehabilitation or rehabilitation within short distance is more effective. A rehabilitation too far away area disrupts the existing social, economic and political ties of neighborhoods. Measures have also been proposed to overcome such problems and to make the slum dwellers an integral part of urban society.

  20. Changes in stature, weight, and nutritional status with tourism-based economic development in the Yucatan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leatherman, Thomas L; Goodman, Alan H; Stillman, Tobias

    2010-07-01

    Over the past 40 years, tourism-based economic development has transformed social and economic conditions in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. We address how these changes have influenced anthropometric indicators of growth and nutritional status in Yalcoba, a Mayan farming community involved in the circular migration of labor in the tourist economy. Data are presented on stature and weight for children measured in 1938 in the Yucatan Peninsula and from 1987 to 1998 in the Mayan community of Yalcoba. In addition, stature, weight and BMI are presented for adults in Yalcoba based on clinic records. Childhood stature varied little between 1938 and 1987. Between 1987 and 1998 average male child statures increased by 2.6cm and female child statures increased by 2.7cm. Yet, 65% of children were short for their ages. Between 1987 and 1998, average child weight increased by 1.8kg. Child BMIs were similar to US reference values and 13% were considered to be above average for weight. Forty percent of adult males and 64% of females were overweight or obese. The anthropometric data from Yalcoba suggest a pattern of stunted children growing into overweight adults. This pattern is found elsewhere in the Yucatan and in much of the developing world where populations have experienced a nutrition transition toward western diets and reduced physical activity levels. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Economic estimative, juridical and urbanistic evaluations in the preservation and change of rural landscape

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriele Scozzafava

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The European Convention on the landscape, signed in Florence on the 20th of October 2000 and recently converted into law marks a moment of profound change in the conception of the landscape in European politics. Indeed, the Convention was founded at the initiative of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities of the Council of Europe, established after the second war with the aim of safeguarding the fundamental rights of European citizens. In relation to this the Convention introduces the main purpose of the action planning the conservation of the landscape as a local resource. Therefore the right of people to identify with their own landscape, recognizing to the landscapes a dual economic and social role, is accentuated. Indeed on the one hand the landscape plays an important activity of public interest, at cultural, ecological, environmental and social scale, on the other hand it is recognized that it constitutes a resource in favor of economic activity and, if maintained, operated and planned properly, can contribute to job creation. In this report, after having highlighted the multifunctional nature of the landscape, which includes an integrated multidisciplinary approach to the problems associated with it, we will propose an overview of the main methods for the identification of the landscape and especially to evaluate it.

  2. Labor Competency Management Within the Context of the Process of Political and Economic Changes in Cuba

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Sánchez Rodríguez

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Political and economic changes in Cuba between 1989 and 2016 have shown a significant impact on labor relations and human capital management, leading to considerable managerial, economic and technological misalignments in this and other areas of Cuban organizations. The objective of this paper is to design a model for the integrated development of labor competencies and the necessary tools for its application, integrating core processes with competency profiles and contributing to raise workers’ performance in the companies within the complex context being studied. As part of the analysis of the potential variables that participate in the multivariate construct of competency management, a procedure was used for the consensus analysis of variables participating in a theoretical model. Contributions are reflected in the theoretical model designed from the four dimensions identified. This model is characterized by the integration of the main theoretical currents in the study of competencies and the design of a human capital management system based on such approach. Additionally, the model makes use of the systems approach, and the holistic and the strategic management approaches for providing technically-based tools for the development of competencies. Furthermore, instruments for indicators calculation reflect an improvement in the perspective of workers, highlighting the competence level and the development level of the competence with a favorable impact on the overall results of the entity object of study.

  3. Satellite monitoring the rangeland degradation under the impacts of climatic and socio-economic changes over central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, K.; Zhang, L.; Dai, L.; Yan, D.

    2012-12-01

    Central Asia, encompassing the republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and China's western Sinkiang, is a typical arid and semi-arid area. The climate in Central Asia is extreme arid, where summer is hot, cloudless and dry, and winter is moist and relatively warm in the south and cold and dry in the north. Rangeland, accounting for 46% of the entire area, is the main vegetation type in this area. Recent findings showed that climate change had caused unprecedented rangeland degradation in Central Asia over the past 30 years. Socio-economical change and environmental change due to the collapse of Soviet Union also accelerated rangeland degradation. Rangeland degradation adversely further deteriorated the environment. With the development of high resolution remote sensing images, an increasing attention has paid to study rangeland degradation in this area. However, previous investigations based on either Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) or Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, has not integrate multi-resolution satellite data for investigating vegetation change and its response to climatic and socio-economic change . In this paper, we employed 30 years' remote sensing data, including both AVHRR ( 1982-2006) and MODIS (2000-2011) satellite data, and in-situ meteorological and social data (e.g. population, economic, and land use change data), to investigate rangeland degradation in the central Asia. We 1) analyzed the spatial-temporal variations of vegetation changes during the past 30 years, and 2) evaluated the roles of climatic and socio-economic factors as potential causes of observed vegetation changes. The results showed extensive area had statistically significant degradation trends (pSoviet Union, rangeland degradation was accelerated due to increased population and economic changes, but this degraded trend slowed down since the political system became relatively stable in 1991. These results

  4. ECONOMY, ECONOMICS, ECONOMIC, ECONOMICAL

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    Sim Monica Ariana

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available To speak and understand a language means - among many other things - knowing the words of that language. The average speaker knows, hears, understands and uses thousands of words daily. But does he use them appropriately? That is why this paper is about words and meanings. More specifically, it deals with the internal structure of complex words, i.e. derivatives. The purpose of the paper is to enable students and potentially other individuals dealing with English language on business basis to engage in their own analyses of some aspects of the language, namely the family tree of the word economy. After having read the paper, the reader should be familiar with the necessary knowledge regarding differences between meanings, misuse and actual sense of words deriving from economy, be able to systematically analyze data and relate his own findings on theoretical language problems. English is used by hundreds of millions speakers and still there is always need for improving our knowledge continuously. Knowing and speaking approximate English may not be enough at an advanced level as in the case of students who prepare themselves for careers that involve proficient communication in a foreign language on specific business issues. This is where the idea of such a paper appeared: students of the Faculty of Economic Sciences talk about economy and all the other terms deriving from it, with approximate knowledge of their meaning, without even being aware that some ‘minor' suffixes like –ic, -ical, -ics etc. really matter and do make a difference. Consequently, we started our teaching of Business English lecture in September 2012 with a working sheet based on the terms economic/ economical/ economics/ economy to assess students' awareness of these terms. The result was not a surprise as more than 90% misused economical instead of economic. That seemed a perfect introduction for students in economics. From that moment on, the building of their specific

  5. Economic and Energy Development in China: Policy Options and Implications for Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McElroy, M. B.; Nielsen, C.

    2003-01-23

    The Harvard University Center for the Environment and partner institutions in China established a multidisciplinary program of integrated research on energy-related environmental issues, local air pollution and global climate change, in China and their role in U.S.-Chinese relations. Major research streams included: (a) developing a dynamic, multi-sector model of the Chinese economy that can estimate energy use, emission, and health damages from pollution, and using this model to simulate broad economic effects of market-based pollution-control policies; (b) developing a regionally disaggregated model of technology and investment choice in the Chinese electric power sector; (c) applying an atmospheric chemical tracer transport model to investigate carbon uptake in Eurasis (notably China) and North America, and to inform observational strategies for CO{sub 2} in China and elsewhere.

  6. Political and Socio-Economic Change: Revolutions and Their Implications for the U.S. Military

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    58.8 56.8 55.9 55.1 54.7 Chile 55.1 54.9 55.3 54.6 51.8 52.1 Colombia 56.94 57.86 58.66 58.88 57.23 56.67 Costa Rica 46.8 45.7 46.5 45.6 46.5...after Obama’s May 2013 visit to Mexico and Costa Rica , National Security Adviser for Latin America Ricardo Zuniga noted: the strategic relationship...WAR COLLEGE Carlisle Barracks, PA and UNITED STATES ARMY WAR COLLEGE PRESS Political and Socio-Economic Change: Revolutions and Their Implications

  7. Changes in the economical updated world by means of the diffuse logia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leidy Maylén Pérez López

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available In the organization world many changes have occurred In last years of last centuries and the first ones, due to the advance of Technologies and Communications (TIC and to the need of getting truthful information in less possible time, the markets globalization and the doubts in taking decisions have favored the development of new techniques of artificial Intelligence applied to a numerous of activities accomplished by human beings and to the field of Economics. In present work a compilation of techniques and applications of artificial intelligence to economy's field is made. It is proposed also a procedure to treat the lack of certainty and the subjectivity as main characteristic of related techniques.

  8. The Management of Economic Decline and the Dimension of Organizational Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela Onofrei

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In the current climate, more and more companies are faced with multiple failures, which are the basic problem that crisis management must resolve. In situations of economic decline, the need for change at the organizational level is imperative to facilitate the recovery of a company. This study aims to identify methods of corporate restructuring, which would be to adopt could be adopted by Romanian companies in a time of crisis, to ensure business sustainability. The research methodology has a theoretical and an empirical component and it is based on statistical methods that facilitated a quantitative approach, using a sample of 82 companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange, all of them being declared insolvent between 2000 and 2010. The research results have contributed to the classification of companies, both by generating causes of insolvency and by restructuring methods

  9. Carbon accounting and economic model uncertainty of emissions from biofuels-induced land use change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'Hare, Michael

    2015-03-03

    Few of the numerous published studies of the emissions from biofuels-induced "indirect" land use change (ILUC) attempt to propagate and quantify uncertainty, and those that have done so have restricted their analysis to a portion of the modeling systems used. In this study, we pair a global, computable general equilibrium model with a model of greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change to quantify the parametric uncertainty in the paired modeling system's estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from ILUC induced by expanded production of three biofuels. We find that for the three fuel systems examined--US corn ethanol, Brazilian sugar cane ethanol, and US soybean biodiesel--95% of the results occurred within ±20 g CO2e MJ(-1) of the mean (coefficient of variation of 20-45%), with economic model parameters related to crop yield and the productivity of newly converted cropland (from forestry and pasture) contributing most of the variance in estimated ILUC emissions intensity. Although the experiments performed here allow us to characterize parametric uncertainty, changes to the model structure have the potential to shift the mean by tens of grams of CO2e per megajoule and further broaden distributions for ILUC emission intensities.

  10. What about Us? Economic and Policy Changes Affecting Rural HIV/AIDS Services and Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albritton, Tashuna; Martinez, Isabel; Gibson, Crystal; Angley, Meghan; Grandelski, Valen R

    2017-01-01

    Health care budgets and policies are chief drivers in the delivery and access to health services. Place is also a factor that affects patient and provider experiences within the health care system. We examine the impact of policy changes and subsequent budget cuts on rural HIV/AIDS care, support services, and prevention. We interviewed 11 social workers, case managers, and outreach workers who serve rural people living with HIV/AIDS. We conducted telephone interviews inquiring about the effect of economics and policies on direct practice with rural clients. We analyzed data using a content analysis approach. We found several themes from the data. Ryan White funding and policy changes shifted direct practice to a medical case management model. Changes in federal and state poverty levels affected client eligibility for the AIDS Drugs Assistance Program. Policy banning financial support for syringe service programs hindered prevention efforts to reduce HIV/AIDS transmission. Ancillary services were reduced, such as housing assistance, transportation, and emergency financial assistance. In conclusion, we highlight the importance of place-based policies to improve access to healthcare and services. We also provide recommendations for greater inclusion in HIV/AIDS-related policy development, care, and service planning for rural workers.

  11. Knowledge Intensive Business Services (KIBS in the Context of Changing Energy Economics in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregor Weber

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper is part of a PhD project (2013-2016 researching the effects and impact of changes in the energy economics on enterprises in Romania and Germany. The project so far revealed that energy efficiency measures belong to the top activities selected by enterprises to react to these new challenges. The main purpose of the study is to determine the role of KIBS in the currently changing German energy sector. The general context of KIBS is being presented through a literature research, including the KIBS framework in the sectors of energy efficiency, energy audit, energy management and related areas. As being top actual, this specific topic was sofar not researched yet, the article covers the identified gap in literature. The methodology used is a qualitative research focused on KIBS in the context of the changing German energy system - several experts were interviewed including academic and industry experts preparing for the German Energy Efficiency Summit (managed by the first author.Their feedback was further analyzed using the causal correlation model. Based on the key finding that KIBS could belong to the winning sectors, the first author is in process of creating a new innovative business model for KIBS in the sector of energy services.

  12. Techno-economic analysis and climate change impacts of sugarcane biorefineries considering different time horizons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junqueira, Tassia L; Chagas, Mateus F; Gouveia, Vera L R; Rezende, Mylene C A F; Watanabe, Marcos D B; Jesus, Charles D F; Cavalett, Otavio; Milanez, Artur Y; Bonomi, Antonio

    2017-01-01

    Ethanol production from lignocellulosic feedstocks (also known as 2nd generation or 2G ethanol process) presents a great potential for reducing both ethanol production costs and climate change impacts since agricultural residues and dedicated energy crops are used as feedstock. This study aimed at the quantification of the economic and environmental impacts considering the current and future scenarios of sugarcane biorefineries taking into account not only the improvements of the industrial process but also of biomass production systems. Technology assumptions and scenarios setup were supported by main companies and stakeholders, involved in the lignocellulosic ethanol production chain from Brazil and abroad. For instance, scenarios considered higher efficiencies and lower residence times for pretreatment, enzymatic hydrolysis, and fermentation (including pentoses fermentation); higher sugarcane yields; and introduction of energy cane (a high fiber variety of cane). Ethanol production costs were estimated for different time horizons. In the short term, 2G ethanol presents higher costs compared to 1st generation (1G) ethanol. However, in the long term, 2G ethanol is more competitive, presenting remarkable lower production cost than 1G ethanol, even considering some uncertainties regarding technology and market aspects. In addition, environmental assessment showed that both 1G (in the medium and long term) and 2G ethanol can reduce climate change impacts by more than 80% when compared to gasoline. This work showed the great potential of 2G ethanol production in terms of economic and environmental aspects. These results can support new research programs and public policies designed to stimulate both production and consumption of 2G ethanol in Brazil, accelerating the path along the learning curve. Some examples of mechanisms include: incentives to the establishment of local equipment and enzyme suppliers; and specific funding programs for the development and use of

  13. Economic costs of achieving current conservation goals in the future as climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, M Rebecca; Klausmeyer, Kirk; Cameron, D Richard; Mackenzie, Jason; Roehrdanz, Patrick

    2012-06-01

    in iterative goal setting given the uncertainty of the effects of climate change and adaptive management that includes new conservation strategies and consideration of the long-term economic costs of conservation. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

  14. Rapid land cover map updates using change detection and robust random forest classifiers

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wessels, Konrad J

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper evaluated the Landsat Automated Land Cover Update Mapping (LALCUM) system designed to rapidly update a land cover map to a desired nominal year using a pre-existing reference land cover map. The system uses the Iteratively Reweighted...

  15. Tropical rodents change rapidly germinating seeds into long-term food supplies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, P.A.; Bongers, F.J.J.M.; Prins, H.H.T.

    2006-01-01

    Seed-hoarding vertebrates may survive yearly periods of food scarcity by storing seeds during the preceding fruiting season. It is poorly understood why rodents creating long-term reserves, especially those in the tropics, incorporate seeds from plant species that germinate rapidly and hence seem

  16. Coevolution of economic behaviour and instituions: towards a theory of institutional change.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.; Stagl, S.

    2003-01-01

    Traditionally, economics has regarded institutions, notably norms and regulations, as fixed or exogenous. Surprisingly few insights on institutional evolution from natural and social sciences have made their way into economics. This article gives an overview of evolutionary theories of institutions

  17. Coevolution of economic behaviour and institutions: towards a theory of institutional change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

    2003-01-01

    Traditionally, economics has regarded institutions, notably norms and regulations, as fixed or exogenous. Surprisingly few insights on institutional evolution from natural and social sciences have made their way into economics. This article gives an overview of evolutionary theories of institutions

  18. The persistence of shocks in GDP and the estimation of the potential economic costs of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Estrada Porrua, F.; Tol, R.S.J.; Gay-Gracia, C.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) typically ignore the impact climate change could have on economic growth. The damage functions of these models assume that climate change impacts have no persistence at all, affecting only the period when they occur. Persistence of shocks is a stylized fact of

  19. The Goal of Evolutionary and Neoclassical Economics as a Consequence of the Changes in Concepts of Human Nature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Horodecka

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The economics depends on the concept of human nature very strongly. The concepts of human nature can be understood as a set of assumptions made about the individual (on different levels: behavior, motives, meaning and his interactions with other people, with groups and diverse institutions. It corresponds with the image of world people have. The concept of human nature together with an image of the world builds the basis of thinking about the economics and about such fundamental element of it as its goal. Therefore if those images of men change, the way of thinking about economics and their elements adjust to those changes as well. The goal of the paper is to present the impact of these alterations of image of man on the economics. This impact will be illustrated on the example of the evolutionary economics, which is contrasted with the orthodox concept of human nature persisting in the neoclassical economics – homo economicus. The method applied to this research is, among others, a content analysis of the most important texts developed within neoclassical and evolutionary economics. To reach this goal, the following steps will be conducted: firstly, the concepts of human nature will be defined in regards of their particularity depending on the discipline by which they are defined; secondly, the main differences between concepts of human nature in neoclassical and evolutionary economics will be analyzed, and thirdly the differences in understanding of the goal and field between those two schools will be explained as resulting from the diverse concepts of human nature. The analysis proved that the main differences in those economic schools might be explained by the changed assumptions about the human nature and the image of the world.

  20. Transformation of Money Circulation and Change of the Paradigm of Stimulation of Economic Growth: Historical Aspect and Modern Requirements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vozhzhov Anatoliy P.

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article conducts an objective scientific analysis and system comprehension of the law of circulation of money – the basis of the quantitative expression of the processes that are connected with functioning of money, which allows revelation of the established regularities in circulation of money, development of relevant solutions and influencing economic development. It considers changing of the regularities of money circulation and the transmission mechanism in modern economy, its influence upon balancing of the economic system. It reveals the essential aspects, contradictions and consequences of the evolution of methods of stimulation of economic development. It studies influence of the policy of quantitative easing (QE as a new method of regulating the economic growth and its impact on transformation of money circulation under modern conditions. It presents mathematic dependencies that describe main evolution stages of changing the laws of circulation of money.

  1. Assessing surface albedo change and its induced radiation budget under rapid urbanization with Landsat and GLASS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yonghong; Jia, Gensuo; Pohl, Christine; Zhang, Xiaoxuan; van Genderen, John

    2016-02-01

    Radiative forcing (RF) induced by land use (mainly surface albedo) change is still not well understood in climate change science, especially the effects of changes in urban albedo due to rapid urbanization on the urban radiation budget. In this study, a modified RF derivation approach based on Landsat images was used to quantify changes in the solar radiation budget induced by variations in surface albedo in Beijing from 2001 to 2009. Field radiation records from a Beijing meteorological station were used to identify changes in RF at the local level. There has been rapid urban expansion over the last decade, with the urban land area increasing at about 3.3 % annually from 2001 to 2009. This has modified three-dimensional urban surface properties, resulting in lower albedo due to complex building configurations of urban centers and higher albedo on flat surfaces of suburban areas and cropland. There was greater solar radiation (6.93 × 108 W) in the urban center in 2009 than in 2001. However, large cropland and urban fringe areas caused less solar radiation absorption. RF increased with distance from the urban center (less than 14 km) and with greater urbanization, with the greatest value being 0.41 W/m2. The solar radiation budget in urban areas was believed to be mainly influenced by urban structural changes in the horizontal and vertical directions. Overall, the results presented herein indicate that cumulative urbanization impacts on the natural radiation budget could evolve into an important driver of local climate change.

  2. Structural Change, Economic Growth and Poverty in OIC countries: the case of Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria and Turkey.

    OpenAIRE

    Naiya, Ismaeel Ibrahim

    2013-01-01

    The paper uses available data to compare and analyzes the relationships between structural change and economic growth in four OIC member countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria and Turkey). The paper uses descriptive statistics to analyze and compare structural transformation in the study countries. It finds that Malaysia, Indonesia and Turkey succeeded achieving sustained economic growth and development because they were able to effectively transform their productive activities from low to ...

  3. Ecological risk assessment of land use change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Hualin; Wang, Peng; Huang, Hongsheng

    2013-01-14

    Land use/land cover change has been attracting increasing attention in the field of global environmental change research because of its role in the social and ecological environment. To explore the ecological risk characteristics of land use change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China, an eco-risk index was established in this study by the combination of a landscape disturbance index with a landscape fragmentation index. Spatial distribution and gradient difference of land use eco-risk are analyzed by using the methods of spatial autocorrelation and semivariance. Results show that ecological risk in the study area has a positive correlation, and there is a decreasing trend with the increase of grain size both in 1995 and 2005. Because the area of high eco-risk value increased from 1995 to 2005, eco-environment quality declined slightly in the study area. There are distinct spatial changes in the concentrated areas with high land use eco-risk values from 1995 to 2005. The step length of spatial separation of land use eco-risk is comparatively long - 58 km in 1995 and 11 km in 2005 - respectively. There are still nonstructural factors affecting the quality of the regional ecological environment at some small-scales. Our research results can provide some useful information for land eco-management, eco-environmental harnessing and restoration. In the future, some measures should be put forward in the regions with high eco-risk value, which include strengthening land use management, avoiding unreasonable types of land use and reducing the degree of fragmentation and separation.

  4. Economic botany collections: A source of material evidence for exploring historical changes in Chinese medicinal materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Eric; Leon, Christine; Nesbitt, Mark; Guo, Ping; Huang, Ran; Chen, Hubiao; Liang, Li; Zhao, Zhongzhen

    2017-03-22

    Many Chinese medicinal materials (CMMs) have changed over centuries of use, particularly in terms of their botanical identity and processing methods. In some cases, these changes have important implications for safety and efficacy in modern clinical practice. As most previous research has focused on clarifying the evolution of CMMs by analyzing traditional Chinese materia medica ("bencao") literature, assessments of historical collections are needed to validate these conclusions with material evidence. Historical collections of Chinese medicines reveal the market materials in circulation at a given moment in time, and represent an underexploited resource for analyzing the evolution of Chinese herbal medicines. This study compares specimens from a rare collection of CMMs from the 1920s with contemporary market materials; by highlighting examples of changes in botanical identity and processing that remain relevant for safe clinical practice in the modern era, this work aims to stimulate further research into previously unexplored historical collections of Chinese medicines. 620 specimens of CMMs that were collected from Chinese pharmacies in the Malay peninsula in the 1920s were examined macroscopically and compared with current pharmacopoeia specifications and authentic contemporary samples. These historical specimens, which are stored in the UK in the Economic Botany Collections (EBC) of Royal Botanic Gardens Kew, were morphologically examined, photographed, and compared to authentic CMMs stored at the Bank of China (Hong Kong) Chinese Medicines Center at Hong Kong Baptist University, as well as authentic herbarium-vouchered specimens from the Leon Collection (LC) at the Kew EBC. Case studies were selected to illustrate examples of historical changes in botanical identity, used plant parts, and processing methods. This investigation confirmed that confusion due to shared common names and regional variations in the botanical identity of certain CMMs has been a

  5. A replicated climate change field experiment reveals rapid evolutionary response in an ecologically important soil invertebrate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bataillon, Thomas; Galtier, Nicolas; Bernard, Aurelien

    2016-01-01

    associated to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture. This shows an evolutionaryresponse to realistic climate change happening over short-time scale, and calls for incorporating evolution into modelspredicting future response of species to climate change. It also shows that designed climate change...... experiments coupled with genome sequencing offer great potential to test for the occurrence (or lack) of an evolutionary response.......Whether species can respond evolutionarily to current climate change is crucial for the persistence of many species. Yet, very few studies have examined genetic responses to climate change in manipulated experiments carried out innatural field conditions. We examined the evolutionary response...

  6. Rural migration in Bolivia: the impact of climate change, economic crisis and state policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariscal, Carlos Balderrama; Tassi, Nico; Miranda, Ana Rubena; Canedo, Lucia Aramayo; Cazorla, Ivan

    2011-04-15

    This case study analyses current migration dynamics in two regions of Bolivia: Northern Potosi, one of the main areas of outmigration in Bolivia, and the municipality of San Julian in the Department of Santa Cruz, a major destination for internal migrants, some of whom come from Northern Potosi. The research was qualitative in nature, with specific attention to breadth and accuracy in the information and analysis. The methods used were participative and the research was done in collaboration with the rural and indigenous organisations in the two selected areas: the Federation of Indigenous Ayllus of Northern Potosi (Federacion de Ayllus Originarios Indigenas del Norte de Potosi Charka Qhara Qhara - FAOI-NP) and the Federation of Intercultural Communities of San Julian (Federacion de Comunidades Interculturales de San Julian). The information gathering process examined a wide range of factors that may trigger migration, including the possible influence of climate change and public policies on migration. The key challenge was to understand current patterns of migration, the processes involved and the social, cultural, economic and political causes and effects, taking into account issues that are increasing in importance, such as climate change, and seeking to discover the extent of their influence in the midst of other factors that drive migration. It is well known that migration is not a simple occurrence. In fact, it involves a series of processes, motivations, causes and decisions. Because it is a collective rather than an individual process, it takes on the character of a 'social phenomenon' that is historically and geographically determined. In many cases, there are cultural practices of transhumance, such as agriculture on different ecological levels or the use of winter and summer pastures. This involves people moving from one place to another, sometimes travelling long distances and crossing districts for several months at a time. These transhumance

  7. Assessing climate change and socio-economic uncertainties in long term management of water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahanshahi, Golnaz; Dawson, Richard; Walsh, Claire; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Glenis, Vassilis

    2015-04-01

    Long term management of water resources is challenging for decision makers given the range of uncertainties that exist. Such uncertainties are a function of long term drivers of change, such as climate, environmental loadings, demography, land use and other socio economic drivers. Impacts of climate change on frequency of extreme events such as drought make it a serious threat to water resources and water security. The release of probabilistic climate information, such as the UKCP09 scenarios, provides improved understanding of some uncertainties in climate models. This has motivated a more rigorous approach to dealing with other uncertainties in order to understand the sensitivity of investment decisions to future uncertainty and identify adaptation options that are as far as possible robust. We have developed and coupled a system of models that includes a weather generator, simulations of catchment hydrology, demand for water and the water resource system. This integrated model has been applied in the Thames catchment which supplies the city of London, UK. This region is one of the driest in the UK and hence sensitive to water availability. In addition, it is one of the fastest growing parts of the UK and plays an important economic role. Key uncertainties in long term water resources in the Thames catchment, many of which result from earth system processes, are identified and quantified. The implications of these uncertainties are explored using a combination of uncertainty analysis and sensitivity testing. The analysis shows considerable uncertainty in future rainfall, river flow and consequently water resource. For example, results indicate that by the 2050s, low flow (Q95) in the Thames catchment will range from -44 to +9% compared with the control scenario (1970s). Consequently, by the 2050s the average number of drought days are expected to increase 4-6 times relative to the 1970s. Uncertainties associated with urban growth increase these risks further

  8. 15th Annual Freight and Logistics Symposium : the future is front and center : the impacts of economic change on freight transportation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    The U.S. transportation system stands at the center of virtually all economic : activity in the country today. Effects of a lengthy global recession are radically and : rapidly reshaping transportation priorities and needs. Now more than ever, freigh...

  9. Socio-economic and land cover changes analysis in a landscape with agricultural matrix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincenzo Viscosi

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The research involved the application of CORINE Land Cover categories in order to analyse changes in land cover and in the socio-economic system over the last 50 years in Molise (Southern Italy. The boundaries of the study area corresponded to those of six local councils: Guglionesi, Montecilfone, Montenero di Bisaccia, Petacciato, San Giacomo degli Schiavoni and Termoli. It is an area which has undergone a great anthropic agricultural impact after the II World War, but, however, still has natural settings worth preserving, as can be seen by the presence of seven Sites of Community Interest (sensu “Habitat Directive” 92/43/EC. For the analyses of the land cover changes, geo-databases were consulted or specially constructed. The aerial photographs from GAI 1954-55 flight, appropriately georectified, and the aerial photograph ITA2000 and AGEA 2004 flights were adopted to draw up the land use/cover maps at a scale of 1.10.000.The study of vegetation was performed using the phytosociological method. In brief, the results show that the landscape of the study area has become more fragmented due mostly to effects of continuous human disturbances and agricultural improvement during the study period. Overall, the landscape is today characterised by the predominance of agricultural use and the sparse colonization of the natural vegetation, mainly by linear vegetational formations (mainly riparian woods.

  10. An explanatory analysis of economic and health inequality changes among Mexican indigenous people, 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Servan-Mori, Edson; Torres-Pereda, Pilar; Orozco, Emanuel; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G

    2014-02-27

    Mexico faces important problems concerning income and health inequity. Mexico's national public agenda prioritizes remedying current inequities between its indigenous and non-indigenous population groups. This study explores the changes in social inequalities among Mexico's indigenous and non-indigenous populations for the time period 2000 to 2010 using routinely collected poverty, welfare and health indicator data. We described changes in socioeconomic indicators (housing condition), poverty (Foster-Greer-Thorbecke and Sen-Shorrocks-Sen indexes), health indicators (childhood stunting and infant mortality) using diverse sources of nationally representative data. This analysis provides consistent evidence of disparities in the Mexican indigenous population regarding both basic and crucial developmental indicators. Although developmental indicators have improved among the indigenous population, when we compare indigenous and non-indigenous people, the gap in socio-economic and developmental indicators persists. Despite a decade of efforts to promote public programs, poverty persists and is a particular burden for indigenous populations within Mexican society. In light of the results, it would be advisable to review public policy and to specifically target future policy to the needs of the indigenous population.

  11. Woodland restoration in Scotland: ecology, history, culture, economics, politics and change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbs, Richard

    2009-07-01

    In the latter half of the 20th century, native pine woodlands in Scotland were restricted to small remnant areas within which there was little regeneration. These woodlands are important from a conservation perspective and are habitat for numerous species of conservation concern. Recent developments have seen a large increase in interest in woodland restoration and a dramatic increase in regeneration and woodland spread. The proximate factor enabling this regeneration is a reduction in grazing pressure from sheep and, particularly, deer. However, this has only been possible as a result of a complex interplay between ecological, political and socio-economic factors. We are currently seeing the decline of land management practices instituted 150-200 years ago, changes in land ownership patterns, cultural revival, and changes in societal perceptions of the Scottish landscape. These all feed into the current move to return large areas of the Scottish Highlands to tree cover. I emphasize the need to consider restoration in a multidisciplinary framework which accounts not just for the ecology involved but also the historical and cultural context.

  12. The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: A Ricardian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabubo-Mariara, Jane; Karanja, Fredrick K.

    2007-06-01

    This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. We use cross-sectional data on climate, hydrological, soil and household level data for a sample of 816 households. We estimate a seasonal Ricardian model to assess the impact of climate on net crop revenue per acre. The results show that climate affects crop productivity. There is a non-linear relationship between temperature and revenue on one hand and between precipitation and revenue on the other. Estimated marginal impacts suggest that global warming is harmful for crop productivity. Predictions from global circulation models confirm that global warming will have a substantial impact on net crop revenue in Kenya. The results also show that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. Findings call for monitoring of climate change and dissemination of information to farmers to encourage adaptations to climate change. Improved management and conservation of available water resources, water harvesting and recycling of wastewater could generate water for irrigation purposes especially in the arid and semi-arid areas.

  13. Socio-economic consequences of technical change in palm fruit processing in Osun State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T Alimi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The traditional palm fruit processing method is basically manual, but is currently undergoing changes. This study identifies the stages that have been mechanised in traditional processing methods and the socio-economic implications of the technical change to assist decision-making on the superiority or otherwise of the mechanised (modern method over the traditional method used by processors in Osun State of Nigeria. Primary data were collected during the 2004 production season with the aid of a structured questionnaire on the production resources and outputs of the two methods. These were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics, budgetary technique dominance and sensitivity analyses, and attitudinal measure. Results indicate that only two (pounding to form paste and cracking of the stages identified in the traditional method were mechanised in the modern method. This resulted in greater efficiency of palm oil extraction, higher labour productivity, more income to stakeholders, greater market orientation, increased volume of operation and unchanged product types and quality. Other consequences are the creation of one additional group of stakeholders (machine owners, dominance, resilience to adverse yield and machine charges by 27 per cent and 150 per cent, respectively; more favourable attitude, less drudgery and health hazards, less labour requirements (female and lower processing time in the modern method than the traditional method. This made the modern method a better choice, which could boost palm oil production at the aggregate level.

  14. Systemic range shift lags among a pollinator species assemblage following rapid climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bedford, Felicity E.; Whittaker, Robert J.; Kerr, Jeremy T.

    2012-01-01

    Contemporary climate change is driving widespread geographical range shifts among many species. If species are tracking changing climate successfully, then leading populations should experience similar climatic conditions through time as new populations establish beyond historical range margins. ...

  15. Rapid transformation of two libraries using Kotter?s Eight Steps of Change

    OpenAIRE

    Wheeler, Terrie R.; Holmes, Kristi L.

    2017-01-01

    Background Two new directors were each charged by their institutions to catalyze transformational change in their libraries and to develop dynamic and evolving information ecosystems ready for the information challenges of the future. The directors approached this transformational change using a strategic, forward-looking approach. Results This paper presents examples of actions that served as catalysts for change at the two libraries using Kotter?s Eight Steps of Change as a framework. Small...

  16. Systemic range shift lags among a pollinator species assemblage following rapid climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bedford, Felicity E.; Whittaker, Robert J.; Kerr, Jeremy T.

    2012-01-01

    Contemporary climate change is driving widespread geographical range shifts among many species. If species are tracking changing climate successfully, then leading populations should experience similar climatic conditions through time as new populations establish beyond historical range margins. ...... species assemblage in responses to recent climate change. Even among the most mobile species and without anthropogenic barriers to dispersal, these pollinators have been unable to extend their ranges as fast as required to keep pace with climate change....

  17. Pharmaceutical expenditure changes in Serbia and Greece during the global economic recession

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihajlo Jakovljevic

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim: Clarity on health expenditures is essential for the timely identification of risks that jeopardize the democratic provision of health services and the credibility of health insurance systems. Furthermore, observing health outcomes with geographical scope is essential for making multilateral associations. This study aimed at conveying information on the variability of important economic parameters of the health sector of Serbia and Greece from 2007 to 2012, when the most serious financial crisis in the post-war economic history hit the global economy. Methods: Exchange rates, purchase-power-parities (PPP and price indices were used for the bilateral review of health and pharmaceutical expenditure dynamics during 2007-2012. Prescription and dispensing changes were also studied taking into account the anatomical therapeutic chemical (ATC structure of drugs consumed. Results: Greece was forced to cut down its total health care and pharmaceutical expenditure and mainly its out-of-pocket payments were more seriously affected by the recession. Surprisingly, emerging market of Serbia, although severely damaged by global recession, succeeded to maintain 19% growth of its per capita health expenditure and even 25% increase of its per capita spending on pharmaceuticals. Innovative pharmaceuticals showed an upward trend in both countries. Conclusions: These two countries might serve as an example of two distinct pathways of mature and emerging health care markets during financial constraints caused by global recession. Our findings show that producing disease-based feedback, in the long run, may empower the assessment of the return on investment on medical technology and healthcare systems’ cost-effectiveness.

  18. CHARACTERISTICS OF MANAGEMENT AND LEADERSHIP IN ORDER TO EFFICIENTLY ACHIEVE THE ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGES PRODUCED BY THE ECONOMIC CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iuliana Talmaciu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Change has become the watchword of the present times. The dynamism of economic, social and political life is becoming more pronounced and it determines numerous organizational changes. In times of crisis and during the following periods, companies face major challenges, changes becoming even harder to anticipate and plan. The economic difficulties encountered by the business environment can be a decisive test for the leaders of companies. The main purpose of this article is to analyze the leadership characteristics which are necessary to efficiently manage and implement organizational changes during crisis. The research method used in this paper was based on the content analysis of works by both Romanian and foreign authors and on some studies conducted by different specialized companies. This paper is structured as follows: introduction, aspects regarding managers' role in change management, characteristics needed by the leaders involved in the change process, conclusions and biography.

  19. Molar changes with cervical headgear alone or in combination with rapid maxillary expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchiori Farret, Marcel; de Lima, Eduardo Martinelli S; Pereira Araújo, Vanessa; Deon Rizzatto, Susana Maria; Macedo de Menezes, Luciane; Lima Grossi, Marcio

    2008-09-01

    To test the hypothesis that there is no difference in the distal movement of the maxillary first permanent molars when cervical headgear is used alone or in combination with rapid maxillary expansion. The sample was composed of 36 subjects (aged 9 to 13 years), treated in the Faculty of Dentistry, Pontifícia Universidade Cat;aaolica, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The individuals were in good health and in their pubertal growth period. All had Class II division 1 malocclusion. The patients were divided into two groups: group 1 (22 subjects), Class II, with a normal transverse maxilla treated with cervical traction headgear (HG) 400 g 12 h/d, and group 2 (14 subjects), Class II maxillary transverse deficiency treated with rapid maxillary expansion plus cervical traction headgear (RME + HG). An additional group 3 (17 subjects) served as a control group and included individuals with the same characteristics. All subjects had two lateral cephalograms: initial (T1) and progress (T2), taken 6 months later. Differences between T1 and T2 were compared with the Student's t-test, and three groups were compared by the analysis of variance and Tukey multiple comparison test. Results showed greater distal tipping and greater distal movement of the first permanent molars in group 1 (HG) than in group 2 (RME + HG), P .05). The hypothesis was rejected. Cervical traction headgear alone produced greater distal movement effects in maxillary first permanent molars when compared with rapid maxillary expansion associated with cervical headgear.

  20. Health Behavior and Behavioral Economics: Economic Preferences and Physical Activity Stages of Change in a Low-Income African American Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, Tammy; Shuval, Kerem; de Oliveira, Angela; Skinner, Celette Sugg; Eckel, Catherine; Murdoch, James C.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose To examine the relationship between physical activity stages of change and preferences for financial risk and time. Design A cross-sectional, community-based study. Setting A low-income, urban, African American neighborhood. Subjects 169 adults Measures Self-reported physical activity stages of change—precontemplation to maintenance, objectively measured BMI and waist circumference, and economic preferences for time and risk measured via incentivized economic experiments. Analysis Multivariable ordered logistic regression models were used to examine the association between physical activity stages of change and economic preferences while controlling for demographic characteristics of the individuals. Results Individuals who are more tolerant of financial risks (OR=1.31, pstage (e.g. from preparation to action). The likelihood of being in the maintenance stage increases by 5.6 and 10.9 percentage points for each 1 unit increase in financial risk tolerance or 1 unit increase in the time preference measure, respectively. Conclusions Greater tolerance of financial risk and more patient time preferences among this low-income ethnic minority population are associated with a more advanced physical activity stage. Further exploration is clearly warranted in larger and more representative samples. PMID:23448410

  1. Economical, Plain, and Rapid Authentication of Actaea racemosa L. (syn. Cimicifuga racemosa, Black Cohosh) Herbal Raw Material by Resilient RP-PDA-HPLC and Chemometric Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bittner, Marian; Schenk, Regina; Springer, Andreas; Melzig, Matthias F

    2016-11-01

    The medicinal plant Actaea racemosa L. (Ranunculaceae, aka black cohosh) is widely used to treat climacteric complaints as an alternative to hormone substitution. Recent trials prove efficacy and safety of the approved herbal medicinal products from extracts of pharmaceutical quality. This led to worldwide increasing sales. A higher demand for the plant material results in problems with economically motivated adulteration. Thus, reliable tools for herbal drug authentication are necessary. To develop an economical, plain, and rapid method to distinguish between closely related American and Asian Actaea species, using securely established and resilient analytical methods coupled to a chemometric evaluation of the resulting data. We developed and validated a RP-PDA-HPLC method including an extraction by ultra-sonication to determine the genuine contents of partly hydrolysis-sensitive polyphenols in Actaea racemosa roots and rhizomes, and applied it to a large number of 203 Actaea samples consisting of seven species. We were able to generate reliable data with regards to the polyphenolic esters in the samples. The evaluation of this data by principle component analysis (PCA) made a discrimination between Asian Actaea species (sheng ma), one American Actaea species (Appalachian bugbane), and A. racemosa possible. The developed RP-PDA-HPLC method coupled to PCA is an excellent tool for authentication of the Actaea racemosa herbal drug, and can be a powerful addition to the TLC methods used in the dedicated pharmacopoeias, and is a promising alternative to expensive and lots of expertise requiring methods. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Rapid analysis of time series data to identify changes in electricity consumption patterns in UK secondary schools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stuart, Graeme; Fleming, Paul; Ferreira, Vasco [Institute of Energy and Sustainable Development, De Montfort University, The Gateway, Leicester, LE1 9BH (United Kingdom); Harris, Peter [Cheriton Technology Management Ltd., Cambridge (United Kingdom)

    2007-04-15

    This paper presents a methodology for energy professionals to identify potential electricity saving opportunities in buildings from the analysis of half-hourly electricity consumption data. The technique recommended in UK government good practice guidance for use with monthly gas data has been applied to half-hourly electricity data from 37 secondary schools. The technique monitors consumption over time, identifying any changes in patterns and quantifying their effects. It has the advantage of being both high resolution and quick to employ. The analysis produces results that allow energy professionals to rapidly detect changes in electricity consumption. (author)

  3. Automatic change detection in RapidEye data using the combined MAD and kernel MAF methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Hecheltjen, Antje; Thonfeld, Frank

    2010-01-01

    The IR-MAD components show changes for a large part of the entire subset. Especially phenological changes in the agricultural fields surrounding the open pit are predominant. As opposed to this, kMAF components focus more on changes in the open-cast mine (and changes due to the two clouds...... and their shadows, not visible in the zoom). Ground data were available from bucket-wheel excavators on the extraction side (to the northwest in the open pit) in terms of elevation data for both dates. No ground data were available for changes due to backfill (southeastern part of the open pit) or changes due...... to mining machines other than the bucket-wheels....

  4. An empirical investigation of economic crisis's impact on consumer behaviour in Bulgaria: Changes of spending, saving and bank credit taking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katrandjiev Hristo

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results from a survey-based market research of Bulgarian households. The author of the study is trying to understand what changes of consumer behavior occur in times of economic crises in Bulgaria, do consumers change their buying patterns, how consumers attempt to avoid or diminish the negative results from economic crisis, etc. The research project is planned, organized and realized within the Scientific Research Program of The University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria. This paper discusses only a part of the research results and analysis. The rest of the research results will be published in a separate paper.

  5. Effects of rapid temperature changes on HK, PK and HSP70 of Litopenaeus vannamei in different seasons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Biao; Wang, Fang; Dong, Shuanglin; Hou, Chunqiang

    2010-09-01

    Activities of hexokinase (HK), pyruvate kinase (PK) and levels of HSP70 were measured to evaluate the response of Litopenaeus vannamei to rapid temperature changes under controlled laboratory conditions. Shrimps were subjected to a quick temperature change from 27°C to 17°C for the summer case (Cold temperature treatment), or from 17°C to 27°C for the winter case (Warm temperature treatment). After 0.5, 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72 h of exposure time, shrimps were sampled and prepared for further analysis. The results showed that the effect of acute temperature changes on activities of HK was significant. Patterns of variations of the two glycolytic enzymes suggested that enzymes in the glycolysis cycle could adjust their activities to meet the acute temperature change. The HSP70 level increased in both cold and warm temperature treatments, suggesting that the rapid temperature changes activated the process of body’s self-protection. But the difference in expression peak of HSP70 might be related to the different body size and the higher thermal sensitivity to temperature increase than to temperature decrease of L. vannamei.

  6. Rapid transformation of two libraries using Kotter's Eight Steps of Change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Terrie R Wheeler; Kristi L Holmes

    2017-01-01

    Two new directors were each charged by their institutions to catalyze transformational change in their libraries and to develop dynamic and evolving information ecosystems ready for the information...

  7. Molar changes with cervical headgear alone or in combination with rapid maxillary expansion

    OpenAIRE

    Farret, Marcel Marchiori; Lima, Eduardo Martinelli Santayana de; Araújo, Vanessa Pereira de; Rizzatto, Susana Maria Deon; Menezes, Luciane Macedo de; Grossi, Márcio Lima

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To test the hypothesis that there is no difference in the distal movement of the maxillary first permanent molars when cervical headgear is used alone or in combination with rapid maxillary expansion. Materials and Methods: The sample was composed of 36 subjects (aged 9 to 13 years), treated in the Faculty of Dentistry, Pontifícia Universidade Católica, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The individuals were in good health and in their pubertal growth period. All had Class II division 1 ma...

  8. Rapid change in the defense of flightless young by a mourning dove parent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berdeen, James; Otis, D.L.

    2011-01-01

    We report that an adult-sized Zenaida macroura (Mourning Dove), presumably a parent, rapidly decreased risk taken in defense of a juvenile as the likelihood of predation to the juvenile increased. We attribute this decrease in risk taken to (1) the parent's perception that the risk of predation had increased to the extent that a continuation of defensive behaviors would not prevent the death of the juvenile, and (2) its attempt to minimize its own risk of death. It may be that there is a threshold beyond which Mourning Dove parents will forgo the risk of additional defense of offspring in favor of making another reproductive attempt.

  9. Short-term stream water temperature observations permit rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter Caldwell; Catalina Segura; Shelby Gull Laird; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Maria Sandercock; Johnny Boggs; James M. Vose

    2015-01-01

    Assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature (Ts) across large scales remains challenging for resource managers because energy exchange processes between the atmosphere and the stream environment are complex and uncertain, and few long-term datasets are available to evaluate changes over time. In this study, we...

  10. Benefits of economic criteria for water scarcity management under global changes: insights from a large-scale hydroeconomic framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice; Nassopoulos, Hypatia

    2016-04-01

    Global changes are expected to exacerbate water scarcity issues in the Mediterranean region in the next decades. In this work, we investigate the impacts of reservoirs operation rules based on an economic criterion. We examine whether can they help reduce the costs of water scarcity, and whether they become more relevant under future climatic and socioeconomic conditions. We develop an original hydroeconomic model able to compare future water supply and demand on a large scale, while representing river basin heterogeneity. On the demand side, we focus on the two main sectors of water use: the irrigation and domestic sectors. Demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. Irrigation requirements are computed for 12 types of crops, at the 0.5° spatial resolution, under future climatic conditions (A1B scenario). The computation of the economic benefits of irrigation water is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The economic value of domestic water is defined as the economic surplus. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water inflows to the reservoirs. Operating rules of the reservoirs are set up using a parameterisation-simulation-optimisation approach. The objective is to maximise water benefits. We introduce prudential parametric rules in order to take into account spatial and temporal trade-offs. The methodology is applied to Algeria at the 2050 horizon. Overall, our results show that the supply-demand imbalance and its costs will increase in most basins under future climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Our results suggest that the benefits of operating rules based on economic criteria are not unequivocally increased with global changes: in some basins the positive impact of economic prioritisation is higher under future conditions

  11. RAPID PENUMBRA AND LORENTZ FORCE CHANGES IN AN X1.0 SOLAR FLARE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Zhe; Jiang, Yunchun; Yang, Jiayang; Yang, Bo; Bi, Yi, E-mail: xuzhe6249@ynao.ac.cn [Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 110, Kunming 650011 (China)

    2016-03-20

    We present observations of the violent changes in photospheric magnetic structures associated with an X1.1 flare, which occurred in a compact δ-configuration region in the following part of AR 11890 on 2013 November 8. In both central and peripheral penumbra regions of the small δ sunspot, these changes took place abruptly and permanently in the reverse direction during the flare: the inner/outer penumbra darkened/disappeared, where the magnetic fields became more horizontal/vertical. Particularly, the Lorentz force (LF) changes in the central/peripheral region had a downward/upward and inward direction, meaning that the local pressure from the upper atmosphere was enhanced/released. It indicates that the LF changes might be responsible for the penumbra changes. These observations can be well explained as the photospheric response to the coronal field reconstruction within the framework of the magnetic implosion theory and the back reaction model of flares.

  12. Rapid transformation of two libraries using Kotter's Eight Steps of Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Terrie R; Holmes, Kristi L

    2017-07-01

    Two new directors were each charged by their institutions to catalyze transformational change in their libraries and to develop dynamic and evolving information ecosystems ready for the information challenges of the future. The directors approached this transformational change using a strategic, forward-looking approach. This paper presents examples of actions that served as catalysts for change at the two libraries using Kotter's Eight Steps of Change as a framework. Small and large changes are critical for successfully transforming library services, resources, and personnel. Libraries are faced with incredible pressure to adapt to meet emerging and intensifying information needs on today's academic medical campuses. These pressures offer an opportunity for libraries to accelerate their evolution at the micro and macro levels. This commentary reports the expansion of new services and areas of support, enhancement of professional visibility of the libraries on their campuses, and overall, a more positive and productive environment at the respective institutions.

  13. Microstructure Formation and Resistivity Change in CuCr during Rapid Solidification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulla Hauf

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The formation of the surface-near microstructure after a current interruption of CuCr contact materials in a vacuum interrupter is characterized by a fast heating and subsequently rapid solidification process. In the present article, we reveal and analyse the formation of two distinct microstructural regions that result from the heat, which is generated and dissipated during interruption. In the topmost region, local and global texture, as well as the resulting microstructure, indicate that both Cu and Cr were melted during rapid heating and solidification whereas in the region underneath, only Cu was melted and elongated Cu-grains solidified with the <001>-direction perpendicularly aligned to the surface. By analysing the lattice parameter of the Cu solid solution, a supersaturation of the solid solution with about 2.25 at % Cr was found independent if Cu was melted solely or together with the Cr. The according reduction of electrical conductivity in the topmost region subsequent to current interruption and the resulting heat distribution are discussed based on these experimental results.

  14. Public perception of climate change in a period of economic crisis in Puerto Rico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Santos-Corrada

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, an analysis is performed to measure Puerto Rican citizens’ perceptions of environmental issues and global climate change (GCC. Puerto Rico (PR is presently facing an economic crisis that began in 2010. In addition, the island has faced many extreme weather events that have greatly impacted the economy, including a dry period that lasted from the beginning of 2014 until the end of 2015 [1]. By replicating a study done in Greece (GR, [2] found that the citizens of PR are more informed about GCC (43% than Greeks (34%. However, only 29% of Puerto Ricans said they knew about the effects of greenhouse gases, as compared to 44% of Greeks. The citizens of PR (67% and GR (91% claim they do not have confidence that their respective governments and agencies will be able to face GCC. In both cases, they have a higher confidence level in environmental organizations than in the scientific community. In PR, 89% of the citizens are concerned about the degradation of natural resources. At 64%, this concern is also significant in the case of GR, although the figure has decreased from previous years. Both countries place more responsibility in the hands of those in government and industry to take action on GCC. That being said, the people of GR have made it known they are willing to perform individual actions as well.

  15. A business to change the world – moral responsibility in textbooks for International Economics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pernilla Andersson

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This article presents an empirical analysis of textbooks for International Economics in upper secondary schools with a focus on moral responsibility for environment and society. The purpose is to analyse the meanings offered to students regarding the scope of taking moral responsibility in relation to the role of a business person. Four different meanings are formulated as a result of the study: one states that a business only can take responsibility inorder to obey laws and respond to consumer demands, a second and third meaning imply that, a business can make demands, to different extents, on subcontractors. A fourth meaning includes that a business (apart from making profit also can be a tool for change. The different meanings are discussed in relation to different functions of education (Biesta 2008, Säfström 2005 and Education for Sustainable Development. The main argument is that a tool forchange-meaning, contributing to a subjectification function of education, ought to have an increased space in education, if we want students who are engaged in sustainability issues regarding the environment and the society also to see a future working within the business world. This is equally important if we want business students to see a future working for sustainable development.

  16. Essays on the Economics of Climate Change, Biofuel and Food Prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seguin, Charles

    Climate change is likely to be the most important global pollution problem that humanity has had to face so far. In this dissertation, I tackle issues directly and indirectly related to climate change, bringing my modest contribution to the body of human creativity trying to deal with climate change. First, I look at the impact of non-convex feedbacks on the optimal climate policy. Second, I try to derive the optimal biofuel policy acknowledging the potential negative impacts that biofuel production might have on food supply. Finally, I test empirically for the presence of loss aversion in food purchases, which might play a role in the consumer response to food price changes brought about by biofuel production. Non-convexities in feedback processes are increasingly found to be important in the climate system. To evaluate their impact on the optimal greenhouse gas (GHG) abate- ment policy, I introduce non-convex feedbacks in a stochastic pollution control model. I numerically calibrate the model to represent the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to global climate change. This approach makes two contributions to the literature. First, it develops a framework to tackle stochastic non-convex pollu- tion management problems. Second, it applies this framework to the problem of climate change. This approach is in contrast to most of the economic literature on climate change that focuses either on linear feedbacks or environmental thresholds. I find that non-convex feedbacks lead to a decision threshold in the optimal mitigation policy, and I characterize how this threshold depends on feedback parameters and stochasticity. There is great hope that biofuel can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel. However, there are some concerns that biofuel would increase food prices. In an optimal control model, a co-author and I look at the optimal biofuel production when it competes for land with food production. In addition oil is not

  17. Changes in dentist and dental hygienist numbers in the European Union and economic area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widström, E; Eaton, K A; Luciak-Donsberger, C

    2010-08-01

    To investigate the extent to which changes in the numbers of dental hygienists and dentists have occurred in the Member States of the European Union and Economic Area (EU/EEA) during the last ten years and discuss the changes in relation to the possibilities of sharing tasks between the two groups. Numbers for active dentists, registered hygienists and EU/EEA member state populations in 2007 were taken from the website of the Council of European Chief Dental Officers (CECDO) (www.cecdo.org) and from CECDO records for the EU/EEA member states in 1998 and for the new EU member states (who joined in 2004 and 2007) in 2000. From these data, population: active dentists, population: registered dental hygienist and active dentists: registered dental hygienist ratios were calculated together with percentage changes in the number of dentists and dental hygienists by member state, between 1998 and 2007 for the old and between 2000 and 2007 for the new EU member states. In 2007, there were a total of 343,922 active dentists and 30,963 registered dental hygienists in the 30 EU/EEA member states plus Switzerland. The mean population to dentist ratio was about 1500:1 and the mean population to dental hygienist ratio (in the 25 states where dental hygienists were registered) was 13,454:1. During the study period, the population of the EU/EEA plus Switzerland increased by less that 3%, the number of dentists increased by 13% and the number dental hygienists by 42%. The overall ratio of active dentists: dental hygienists changed from 18:1 to 11:1. In six of the 30 member states plus Switzerland the population to dental hygienist ratio was between 2000:1 and 6000:1 and the dentist: dental hygienist ratio less than 1:3. Although, most member states educate dental hygienists and their numbers in the EU/EEA during the last 10 years have risen more than the dentist numbers, there are still only a handful countries where the hygienist numbers are great enough to make a significant

  18. Applying a System Dynamics Approach for Modeling Groundwater Dynamics to Depletion under Different Economical and Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Balali

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the recent decades, due to many different factors, including climate change effects towards be warming and lower precipitation, as well as some structural policies such as more intensive harvesting of groundwater and low price of irrigation water, the level of groundwater has decreased in most plains of Iran. The objective of this study is to model groundwater dynamics to depletion under different economic policies and climate change by using a system dynamics approach. For this purpose a dynamic hydro-economic model which simultaneously simulates the farmer’s economic behavior, groundwater aquifer dynamics, studied area climatology factors and government economical policies related to groundwater, is developed using STELLA 10.0.6. The vulnerability of groundwater balance is forecasted under three scenarios of climate including the Dry, Nor and Wet and also, different scenarios of irrigation water and energy pricing policies. Results show that implementation of some economic policies on irrigation water and energy pricing can significantly affect on groundwater exploitation and its volume balance. By increasing of irrigation water price along with energy price, exploitation of groundwater will improve, in so far as in scenarios S15 and S16, studied area’s aquifer groundwater balance is positive at the end of planning horizon, even in Dry condition of precipitation. Also, results indicate that climate change can affect groundwater recharge. It can generally be expected that increases in precipitation would produce greater aquifer recharge rates.

  19. Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan T.; Shaffrey, Len

    2017-03-01

    Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid warming are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This study focuses on understanding causes of the rapid summer warming and associated temperature extreme changes. A set of experiments using the atmospheric component of the state-of-the-art HadGEM3 global climate model have been carried out to quantify relative roles of changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), and anthropogenic aerosols (AAer). Results indicate that the model forced by changes in all forcings reproduces many of the observed changes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Changes in SST/SIE explain 62.2 ± 13.0 % of the area averaged seasonal mean warming signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37.8 ± 13.6 % of the warming explained by the direct impact of changes in GHGs and AAer. Results further indicate that the direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe, mainly through aerosol-radiation interaction with additional contributions from aerosol-cloud interaction and coupled atmosphere-land surface feedbacks, is a key factor for increases in annual hottest day temperature and in frequency of summer days. It explains 45.5 ± 17.6 % and 40.9 ± 18.4 % of area averaged signals for these temperature extremes. The direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe acts to increase DTR locally, but the change in DTR is countered by the direct impact of GHGs forcing. In the next few decades, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise and AAer precursor

  20. Rapid land-use change and its impacts on tropical biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurance, William F.

    Rates of forest conversion are extremely high in most tropical regions and these changes are known to have important impacts on biotas and ecosystems. I summarize available information on responses of wildlife and plant communities to habitat fragmentation, selective logging, surface fires, and hunting, which are four of the most widespread types of tropical land-use change. These changes alter forest ecosystems in complex ways and have varying impacts on different animal and plant species. In most human-dominated landscapes, forests are subjected to not one change but to two or more simultaneous alterations, the effects of which can be particularly destructive to tropical biotas. I illustrate this concept by describing the synergistic interactions between habitat fragmentation and surface fires, and between logging, fires, and hunting.