WorldWideScience

Sample records for rapid economic change

  1. Health impacts of rapid economic changes in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangcharoensathien, V; Harnvoravongchai, P; Pitayarangsarit, S; Kasemsup, V

    2000-09-01

    The economic crisis in Thailand in July 1997 had major social implications for unemployment, under employment, household income contraction, changing expenditure patterns, and child abandonment. The crisis increased poverty incidence by 1 million, of whom 54% were the ultra-poor. This paper explores and explains the short-term health impact of the crisis, using existing data and some special surveys and interviews for 2 years during 1998-99. The health impacts of the crisis are mixed, some being negative and some being positive. Household health expenditure reduced by 24% in real terms; among the poorer households, institutional care was replaced by self-medication. The pre-crisis rising trend in expenditure on alcohol and tobacco consumption was reversed. Immunization spending and coverage were sustained at a very high level after the crisis, but reports of increases in diphtheria and pertussis indicate declining programme quality. An increase in malaria, despite budget increases, had many causes but was mainly due to reduced programme effectiveness. STD incidence continued the pre-crisis downward trend. Rates of HIV risky sexual behaviour were higher among conscripts than other male workers, but in both groups there was lower condom use with casual partners. HIV serosurveillance showed a continuation of the pre-crisis downward trend among commercial sex workers (CSW, both brothel and non-brothel based), pregnant women and donated blood; this trend was slightly reversed among male STD patients and more among intravenous drug users. Condom coverage among brothel based CSW continued to increase to 97.5%, despite a 72% budget cut in free condom distribution. Poverty and lack of insurance coverage are two major determinants of absence of or inadequate antenatal care, and low birthweight. The Low Income Scheme could not adequately cover the poor but the voluntary Health Card Scheme played a health safety net role for maternal and child health. Low birthweight and

  2. Economic analyses of rapid population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birdsall, N

    1989-01-01

    "Discussion of the macroeconomic consequences of rapid population growth is organized into three schools: pessimists, optimists, and the recent revisionists. For the revisionists, differing views are presented about the pervasiveness and relevance of market failures, such as the negative externalities of childbearing, and about the ability of families and institutions to adjust rapidly to changes brought on by rapid population growth. A welfare economics approach is used to review the merits of various public policies to reduce fertility, including public financing of family planning services and taxes and incentives associated with childbearing." The focus is on developing countries. excerpt

  3. Rapid land use change after socio-economic disturbances: the collapse of the Soviet Union versus Chernobyl

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hostert, Patrick; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Sieber, Anika; Prishchepov, Alexander; Lambin, Eric F; Radeloff, Volker C

    2011-01-01

    Land use change is a principal force and inherent element of global environmental change, threatening biodiversity, natural ecosystems, and their services. However, our ability to anticipate future land use change is severely limited by a lack of understanding of how major socio-economic disturbances (e.g., wars, revolutions, policy changes, and economic crises) affect land use. Here we explored to what extent socio-economic disturbances can shift land use systems onto a different trajectory, and whether this can result in less intensive land use. Our results show that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 caused a major reorganization in land use systems. The effects of this socio-economic disturbance were at least as drastic as those of the nuclear disaster in the Chernobyl region in 1986. While the magnitudes of land abandonment were similar in Ukraine and Belarus in the case of the nuclear disaster (28% and 36% of previously farmed land, respectively), the rates of land abandonment after the collapse of the Soviet Union in Ukraine were twice as high as those in Belarus. This highlights that national policies and institutions play an important role in mediating effects of socio-economic disturbances. The socio-economic disturbance that we studied caused major hardship for local populations, yet also presents opportunities for conservation, as natural ecosystems are recovering on large areas of former farmland. Our results illustrate the potential of socio-economic disturbances to revert land use intensification and the important role institutions and policies play in determining land use systems' resilience against such socio-economic disturbances.

  4. Rapid land use change after socio-economic disturbances: the collapse of the Soviet Union versus Chernobyl

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostert, Patrick; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Prishchepov, Alexander; Sieber, Anika; Lambin, Eric F.; Radeloff, Volker C.

    2011-10-01

    Land use change is a principal force and inherent element of global environmental change, threatening biodiversity, natural ecosystems, and their services. However, our ability to anticipate future land use change is severely limited by a lack of understanding of how major socio-economic disturbances (e.g., wars, revolutions, policy changes, and economic crises) affect land use. Here we explored to what extent socio-economic disturbances can shift land use systems onto a different trajectory, and whether this can result in less intensive land use. Our results show that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 caused a major reorganization in land use systems. The effects of this socio-economic disturbance were at least as drastic as those of the nuclear disaster in the Chernobyl region in 1986. While the magnitudes of land abandonment were similar in Ukraine and Belarus in the case of the nuclear disaster (28% and 36% of previously farmed land, respectively), the rates of land abandonment after the collapse of the Soviet Union in Ukraine were twice as high as those in Belarus. This highlights that national policies and institutions play an important role in mediating effects of socio-economic disturbances. The socio-economic disturbance that we studied caused major hardship for local populations, yet also presents opportunities for conservation, as natural ecosystems are recovering on large areas of former farmland. Our results illustrate the potential of socio-economic disturbances to revert land use intensification and the important role institutions and policies play in determining land use systems' resilience against such socio-economic disturbances.

  5. Rapid land use change after socio-economic disturbances: the collapse of the Soviet Union versus Chernobyl

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hostert, Patrick; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Sieber, Anika [Geography Department, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin (Germany); Prishchepov, Alexander [Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO), Department of Structural Development of Farms and Rural Areas, Theodor-Lieser-Strasse 2, 06120 Halle (Germany); Lambin, Eric F [Earth and Life Institute, Universite catholique de Louvain, place L. Pasteur 3, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Radeloff, Volker C, E-mail: patrick.hostert@geo.hu-berlin.de [Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, Madison, WI 53706-1598 (United States)

    2011-10-15

    Land use change is a principal force and inherent element of global environmental change, threatening biodiversity, natural ecosystems, and their services. However, our ability to anticipate future land use change is severely limited by a lack of understanding of how major socio-economic disturbances (e.g., wars, revolutions, policy changes, and economic crises) affect land use. Here we explored to what extent socio-economic disturbances can shift land use systems onto a different trajectory, and whether this can result in less intensive land use. Our results show that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 caused a major reorganization in land use systems. The effects of this socio-economic disturbance were at least as drastic as those of the nuclear disaster in the Chernobyl region in 1986. While the magnitudes of land abandonment were similar in Ukraine and Belarus in the case of the nuclear disaster (28% and 36% of previously farmed land, respectively), the rates of land abandonment after the collapse of the Soviet Union in Ukraine were twice as high as those in Belarus. This highlights that national policies and institutions play an important role in mediating effects of socio-economic disturbances. The socio-economic disturbance that we studied caused major hardship for local populations, yet also presents opportunities for conservation, as natural ecosystems are recovering on large areas of former farmland. Our results illustrate the potential of socio-economic disturbances to revert land use intensification and the important role institutions and policies play in determining land use systems' resilience against such socio-economic disturbances.

  6. The nutrition transition in amazonia: rapid economic change and its impact on growth and development in Ribeirinhos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piperata, Barbara A; Spence, Jennifer E; Da-Gloria, Pedro; Hubbe, Mark

    2011-09-01

    The goal of this longitudinal study was to assess the impact of economic change and increased market integration on subsistence strategies, living conditions, growth, and nutritional status of Ribeirinhos living in the rural Amazon, Brazil. Data on weight, height, skinfolds, and circumferences, as well as data on economic strategies and living conditions were collected from 469 individuals in 2002 and 429 in 2009. Of these, 204 individuals were measured on both occasions. Independent and paired t-tests were used to identify changes in nutritional status over time in the larger sample and smaller, longitudinal subsample, respectively. Multiple linear regressions were used to examine the relationship between changes in economic/living conditions and nutritional status in the longitudinal subsample. Results indicate modest improvements in linear growth (HAZ) and among male children the observed increase was related to enrollment in the Brazilian conditional cash transfer program, Bolsa Família (P = 0.03). In terms of short-term measures of nutritional status, we found a significant increase in ZTSF and a reduction in ZUMA in most age/sex groups. Among subadults, there was a negative relationship between ZUMA and access to electricity (P = 0.01) and positive relationship between ZUMA and the sale of the açaí fruit (P = 0.04). Significant changes in weight and BMI (P economic strategies and lifestyle, changes in nutritional status were modest which may be explained by increased food insecurity documented during this early stage of transition. 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  7. Water Quality Changes during Rapid Urbanization in the Shenzhen River Catchment: An Integrated View of Socio-Economic and Infrastructure Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hua-peng Qin

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Surface water quality deterioration is a serious problem in many rapidly urbanizing catchments in developing countries. There is currently a lack of studies that quantify water quality variation (deterioration or otherwise due to both socio-economic and infrastructure development in a catchment. This paper investigates the causes of water quality changes over the rapid urbanization period of 1985–2009 in the Shenzhen River catchment, China and examines the changes in relation to infrastructure development and socio-economic policies. The results indicate that the water quality deteriorated rapidly during the earlier urbanization stages before gradually improving over recent years, and that rapid increases in domestic discharge were the major causes of water quality deterioration. Although construction of additional wastewater infrastructure can significantly improve water quality, it was unable to dispose all of the wastewater in the catchment. However, it was found that socio-economic measures can significantly improve water quality by decreasing pollutant load per gross regional production (GRP or increasing labor productivity. Our findings suggest that sustainable development during urbanization is possible, provided that: (1 the wastewater infrastructure should be constructed timely and revitalized regularly in line with urbanization, and wastewater treatment facilities should be upgraded to improve their nitrogen and phosphorus removal efficiencies; (2 administrative regulation policies, economic incentives and financial policies should be implemented to encourage industries to prevent or reduce the pollution at the source; (3 the environmental awareness and education level of local population should be increased; (4 planners from various sectors should consult each other and adapt an integrated planning approach for socio-economic and wastewater infrastructure development.

  8. Foundations of economic change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cantner, Uwe

    2016-01-01

    This paper employs the Schumpeterian approach to the development of economies in order to identify the core building blocks of a theory of endogenous economic change. Borders and insights are widened by combining concepts and findings from behavioral economics, from evolutionary economics, and from...... complexity economics. Actor heterogeneity, on the one hand, and mechanisms of actors’ interaction, on the other, are suggested to be fundamental elements of that theory. Theoretical analyses and empirical accounts are presented, achievements are discussed, and further avenues of research are suggested....

  9. Economics and changing lifestyles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barbieri, R H

    1982-01-01

    The management and consumption of energy resources are undergoing radical change. That change is prompting reevaluation of traditional patterns of economic interaction; the roles of public participation in the political process. This article discusses the roots of the energy dilemma, the impact of energy on the decision-making process, social change, and energy policy formulation. The impact of this reevaluation on lifestyles and attitudes toward energy are also discussed. Efforts towards the search for a solution are presented.

  10. Economic Growth of a Rapidly Developing Economy: Theoretical Formulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg Sergeyevich Sukharev

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The subject matter of the article is the description of economic growth. Modern economy is characterized by a high rate of changes. These changes are the limiting parameters of modern development, which requires a modification of the basic models of growth, the substantiation of the expediency and necessity of a rapid development strategy. In a simple mathematical form, the statement of the problem of economic growth in the “green economy” is examined, in which the costs of environmental measures are not considered a priori as hampering economic development (as it is common for a number of modern neoclassical and neo-Keynesian growth models. The methodological basis of the article are the econometric approach and modelling method. The article has a theoretical character. The main hypothesis supposes that the rapid development strategy cannot make an adequate development strategy under certain conditions, but may be acceptable in other its specific conditions. In this sense, the important growth conditions are the availability of resources, the effectiveness of institutions and the current economic structure, the technological effectiveness of economy, as well as the conditions of technological development (“green economy” and the path of such development. In the article, on the theoretical level of analysis, the substantiation of the adequacy of the rapid development strategy for an economic system is given, whose goal is to achieve the standard of living of the countryleader. Based on the assumptions introduced, the period for which the rapid development strategy might be implemented and the economic lag of the country might be reduced from the country-leader is determined. The conditions that ensure the impact of innovations on the rate of economic development are summarized. The introduced range of dependencies and relations can be useful for the elaboration of the theory of innovation development and for the formation of a new

  11. Ecological economics and institutional change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krall, Lisi; Klitgaard, Kent

    2011-02-01

    Ecological economics remains unfinished in its effort to provide a framework for transforming the economy so that it is compatible with biophysical limits. Great strides have been made in valuing natural capital and ecosystem services and recognizing the need to limit the scale of economic activity, but the question of how to effectively transform the economy to limit the scale of economic activity remains unclear. To gain clarity about the institutional changes necessary to limit the scale of economic activity, it is essential that ecological economics understands the limitations of its neoclassical roots and expands its theoretical framework to include how markets are embedded in social and institutional structures. This has long been the domain of institutional economics and heterodox political economy. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

  12. The economics of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    An international Conference on the Economics of Climate Change was convened by the OECD and the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, in June 1993. Participants included many of the world's foremost experts in the field, as well as representatives from business, labour, and other non-governmental organisations. The Conference sought to examine points of consensus and divergence among existing studies on the economics of climate change. Participants also focused on how economic analysis could contribute to meeting the obligations of OECD countries under the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change. Discussions centered on such topics as the economic costs and benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies, the potential role of carbon taxes and other economic instruments in the policy mix, possibilities for technological change and diffusion, especially in the energy sector, and joint abatement action between industrialized and developing countries. This volume contains the papers presented at the Conference, as well as summaries of the subsequent discussions. It provides an overview of the 'state of the art' in the economics of climate change and several suggestions for future research. (author)

  13. Changing Identities and Socio Economic Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singla, Rashmi; Fabricius, Anne Sophie; Holm, Anne

    Changing Identities and Socio Economic Strategies: South Asian Diasporic Youth in Scandinavia   Rashmi Singla,  Anne Sophie Fabricius & Anne Holm This paper throws light on the rapid cultural transformations as well as continuity among the South Asian youth in Scandinavia, primarily in Denmark....... Based on two interdisciplinary empirical studies, it investigates some socioeconomic aspects of the South Asian diaspora in Denmark. The first longitudinal study explored young adults’ economic strategies in relation to their country of origin. The first wave investigation was conducted in the mid-1990s...

  14. The economics of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, T.

    1992-01-01

    Perhaps the most startling aspect of the debate on climate change is the speed with which it has climbed the international political agenda. In 1985, climate change was viewed almost entirely as a scientific issue. Only seven years later, most industrialized countries have made some sort of political pledge to abate their emissions of greenhouse gases over a specific timetable. And earlier this year, 154 countries signed a Framework Convention on Climate Change at the UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro. What is the present 'state of play' in the economics of climate change. And what priorities are now emerging in 'post-Rio' policy. 11 ref

  15. Change the World by Changing Economics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl Wagner

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available We live in a world of opportunity – the opportunity to use the insight generated through the multiple crises humanity finds itself in to transit into a much more liveable, sustainable and equitable society. A paradigm change seems to be taking place, a movement for change seems to be in the making, but at the same time there is a widespread feeling that things are getting worse instead of better and there is no guarantee that change will lead us into a better future in the next few decades. To effectively guide the direction of change we need to address the root causes of today’s global challenges and take a close look at what drives human society and human beings. In doing so we realize that we are looking at a holographic picture which contains different layers, which are interdependent: Human biology; values and belief systems; the changing narrative underlying the development of human society; economics and governance and the many tools as well as special interests, support and uphold the outdated paradigms. The one element which influences all people nearly every day and is behind just about each and every crisis is the theory and practice of current economics. The article explores the debate on current economics and proposes mechanisms of change.

  16. An Asian dilemma. Modernising the electricity sector in China and India in the context of rapid economic growth and the concern for climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gupta, J.; Vlasblom, J.; Kroeze, C. (eds.)

    2001-12-01

    The research question dealt with in this report is: What are the feasible policy and technology options to modernise the electricity sector in China and India taking into account the supply and demand for electricity and given the conflict between the need for economic growth and the need to anticipate future developments in relation to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions? The project essentially integrates three methodological approaches, a scenario approach, a bottom-up technology approach and an institutional cum stakeholder approach. Following an initial appraisal of the 'business-as-usual' scenario for the electricity sector for both countries, a range of policy and technology options was identified, as well as their potential and technical, economic and political feasibility. These options were combined and compared to the business-as-usual scenario to develop emission reduction scenarios for China and India and were tested with stakeholders to identify their feasibility and to assess the potential of using instruments at national and international level to facilitate their implementation. Although some measures have a high technical potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in both countries, these are not seen as particularly feasible by the stakeholders. For example end use efficiency has a very high technical emission to reduce emissions but is not given much priority in China and India (especially in the small-scale sector). Efficiency improvement in power plants and in transmission and distribution can also yield results in terms of emission reductions but are not seen as important in China. The report discusses the barriers and opportunities in relation to the various options. refs.

  17. Rapid estimation of the economic consequences of global earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, operational since mid 2007, rapidly estimates the most affected locations and the population exposure at different levels of shaking intensities. The PAGER system has significantly improved the way aid agencies determine the scale of response needed in the aftermath of an earthquake. For example, the PAGER exposure estimates provided reasonably accurate assessments of the scale and spatial extent of the damage and losses following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) in China, the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Mw 6.3) in Italy, the 2010 Haiti earthquake (Mw 7.0), and the 2010 Chile earthquake (Mw 8.8). Nevertheless, some engineering and seismological expertise is often required to digest PAGER's exposure estimate and turn it into estimated fatalities and economic losses. This has been the focus of PAGER's most recent development. With the new loss-estimation component of the PAGER system it is now possible to produce rapid estimation of expected fatalities for global earthquakes (Jaiswal and others, 2009). While an estimate of earthquake fatalities is a fundamental indicator of potential human consequences in developing countries (for example, Iran, Pakistan, Haiti, Peru, and many others), economic consequences often drive the responses in much of the developed world (for example, New Zealand, the United States, and Chile), where the improved structural behavior of seismically resistant buildings significantly reduces earthquake casualties. Rapid availability of estimates of both fatalities and economic losses can be a valuable resource. The total time needed to determine the actual scope of an earthquake disaster and to respond effectively varies from country to country. It can take days or sometimes weeks before the damage and consequences of a disaster can be understood both socially and economically. The objective of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system is

  18. Economic Consequences Of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szlávik, János; Füle, Miklós

    2009-07-01

    Even though the climate conflict resulting from green houses gases (GHG) emissions was evident by the Nineties and the well-known agreements made, their enforcement is more difficult than that of other environmental agreements. That is because measures to reduce GHG emissions interfere with the heart of the economy and the market: energy (in a broader sense than the energy sector as defined by statistics) and economical growth. Analyzing the environmental policy responses to climate change the conclusion is that GHG emission reduction can only be achieved through intensive environmental policy. While extensive environmental protection complements production horizontally, intensive environmental protection integrates into production and the environment vertically. The latter eliminates the source of the pollution, preventing damage. It utilizes the biochemical processes and self-purification of the natural environment as well as technical development which not only aims to produce state-of-the-art goods, but to make production more environmentally friendly, securing a desired environmental state. While in extensive environmental protection the intervention comes from the outside for creating environmental balance, in intensive environmental protection the system recreates this balance itself. Instead of dealing with the consequences and the polluter pays principle, the emphasis is on prevention. It is important to emphasize that climate strategy decisions have complex effects regarding the aspects of sustainability (economical, social, ecological). Therefore, all decisions are political. At present, and in the near future, market economy decisions have little to do with sustainability values under normal circumstances. Taking social and ecological interests into consideration can only be successful through strategic political aims.

  19. Ecological economics and global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maier-Rigaud, G.

    1991-09-01

    What is the subject of ecology? What is the primary concern of economics? How can the interface between ecology and economics be described? Is there a relationship between the two different sciences which constitutes a new research field? This book raises some of these basic questions and reflects on major misleading assumptions research in ecological economics unwittingly relies on. An outlook is given as to the aspects on which research in this field should now primarily concentrate. This publication addresses first of all natural scientists and politicians, though economists, too, might find some new aspects apart from traditional economic reasoning. (orig./KW)

  20. The Rapid Ice Sheet Change Observatory (RISCO)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, P.; Howat, I. M.; Ahn, Y.; Porter, C.; McFadden, E. M.

    2010-12-01

    The recent expansion of observational capacity from space has revealed dramatic, rapid changes in the Earth’s ice cover. These discoveries have fundamentally altered how scientists view ice-sheet change. Instead of just slow changes in snow accumulation and melting over centuries or millennia, important changes can occur in sudden events lasting only months, weeks, or even a single day. Our understanding of these short time- and space-scale processes, which hold important implications for future global sea level rise, has been impeded by the low temporal and spatial resolution, delayed sensor tasking, incomplete coverage, inaccessibility and/or high cost of data available to investigators. New cross-agency partnerships and data access policies provide the opportunity to dramatically improve the resolution of ice sheet observations by an order of magnitude, from timescales of months and distances of 10’s of meters, to days and meters or less. Advances in image processing technology also enable application of currently under-utilized datasets. The infrastructure for systematically gathering, processing, analyzing and distributing these data does not currently exist. Here we present the development of a multi-institutional, multi-platform observatory for rapid ice change with the ultimate objective of helping to elucidate the relevant timescales and processes of ice sheet dynamics and response to climate change. The Rapid Ice Sheet Observatory (RISCO) gathers observations of short time- and space-scale Cryosphere events and makes them easily accessible to investigators, media and general public. As opposed to existing data centers, which are structured to archive and distribute diverse types of raw data to end users with the specialized software and skills to analyze them, RISCO focuses on three types of geo-referenced raster (image) data products in a format immediately viewable with commonly available software. These three products are (1) sequences of images

  1. Climate Change Accuracy: Requirements and Economic Value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Lukashin, C.; Thome, K. J.; Baize, R. R.

    2014-12-01

    Higher than normal accuracy is required to rigorously observe decadal climate change. But what level is needed? How can this be quantified? This presentation will summarize a new more rigorous and quantitative approach to determining the required accuracy for climate change observations (Wielicki et al., 2013, BAMS). Most current global satellite observations cannot meet this accuracy level. A proposed new satellite mission to resolve this challenge is CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory). CLARREO is designed to achieve advances of a factor of 10 for reflected solar spectra and a factor of 3 to 5 for thermal infrared spectra (Wielicki et al., Oct. 2013 BAMS). The CLARREO spectrometers are designed to serve as SI traceable benchmarks for the Global Satellite Intercalibration System (GSICS) and to greatly improve the utility of a wide range of LEO and GEO infrared and reflected solar passive satellite sensors for climate change observations (e.g. CERES, MODIS, VIIIRS, CrIS, IASI, Landsat, SPOT, etc). Providing more accurate decadal change trends can in turn lead to more rapid narrowing of key climate science uncertainties such as cloud feedback and climate sensitivity. A study has been carried out to quantify the economic benefits of such an advance as part of a rigorous and complete climate observing system. The study concludes that the economic value is $12 Trillion U.S. dollars in Net Present Value for a nominal discount rate of 3% (Cooke et al. 2013, J. Env. Sys. Dec.). A brief summary of these two studies and their implications for the future of climate science will be presented.

  2. Indigenous people's detection of rapid ecological change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aswani, Shankar; Lauer, Matthew

    2014-06-01

    When sudden catastrophic events occur, it becomes critical for coastal communities to detect and respond to environmental transformations because failure to do so may undermine overall ecosystem resilience and threaten people's livelihoods. We therefore asked how capable of detecting rapid ecological change following massive environmental disruptions local, indigenous people are. We assessed the direction and periodicity of experimental learning of people in the Western Solomon Islands after a tsunami in 2007. We compared the results of marine science surveys with local ecological knowledge of the benthos across 3 affected villages and 3 periods before and after the tsunami. We sought to determine how people recognize biophysical changes in the environment before and after catastrophic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis and whether people have the ability to detect ecological changes over short time scales or need longer time scales to recognize changes. Indigenous people were able to detect changes in the benthos over time. Detection levels differed between marine science surveys and local ecological knowledge sources over time, but overall patterns of statistically significant detection of change were evident for various habitats. Our findings have implications for marine conservation, coastal management policies, and disaster-relief efforts because when people are able to detect ecological changes, this, in turn, affects how they exploit and manage their marine resources. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  3. eRME - Rapid Maxillary Expansion in the economic way

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonali Mahadevia

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim and Objectives: Rapid Maxillary Expansion constitutes a routine clinical procedure in orthodontics, involving separation of mid-palatine suture which is usually done with help of the Hyrax screw. However, because of its high cost, the use has been limited, especially in institutions. So, the purpose of this study was to construct an economical device which can expand the maxillary arch in growing patients. Materials and Methods: Six patients having constricted maxilla and posterior skeletal crossbite were randomly selected from the Department of Orthodontics. A unique, easy and simple alternative device for expanding the maxillary arch called economic Rapid Maxillary Expander (eRME has been fabricated at about one-tenth the cost of the conventional Hyrax. Pre- and post-treatment effects were statistically tested by using paired t-test at 0.05 level of significance. Results and Conclusion: The study results showed an average expansion in canine, premolar and molar regions of 4.4 mm, 6.8 mm and 9.4 mm, respectively, having significant difference pre-and post-treatment. Thus, it shows that maxillary expansion is efficiently possible with the application of this newly constructed device named eRME. This appliance also acts as a fixed retainer to avoid relapse, hence negating the need for a separate retainer.

  4. Rapid Change Detection Algorithm for Disaster Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, U.; Thunig, H.; Ehlers, M.; Reinartz, P.

    2012-07-01

    This paper focuses on change detection applications in areas where catastrophic events took place which resulted in rapid destruction especially of manmade objects. Standard methods for automated change detection prove not to be sufficient; therefore a new method was developed and tested. The presented method allows a fast detection and visualization of change in areas of crisis or catastrophes. While often new methods of remote sensing are developed without user oriented aspects, organizations and authorities are not able to use these methods because of absence of remote sensing know how. Therefore a semi-automated procedure was developed. Within a transferable framework, the developed algorithm can be implemented for a set of remote sensing data among different investigation areas. Several case studies are the base for the retrieved results. Within a coarse dividing into statistical parts and the segmentation in meaningful objects, the framework is able to deal with different types of change. By means of an elaborated Temporal Change Index (TCI) only panchromatic datasets are used to extract areas which are destroyed, areas which were not affected and in addition areas where rebuilding has already started.

  5. Economic impacts of marine ecological change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneveld, Rolf A.; Bartelings, Heleen; Börger, Tobias; Bosello, Francesco; Buisman, Erik; Delpiazzo, Elisa; Eboli, Fabio; Fernandes, Jose A.; Hamon, Katell G.; Hattam, Caroline; Loureiro, Maria; Nunes, Paulo A.L.D.; Piwowarczyk, Joanna; Schasfoort, Femke E.; Simons, Sarah L.; Walker, Adam N.

    2018-01-01

    Marine ecological change is likely to have serious potential economic consequences for coastal economies all over the world. This article reviews the current literature on the economic impacts of marine ecological change, as well as a number of recent contributions to this literature carried out

  6. The Chinese experience of rapid modernization: sociocultural changes, psychological consequences?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiahong eSun

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Mainland China has undergone profound changes dating back to the nineteenth century, including a contemporary period of rapid modernization that began in the 1980s. The result has been dramatic social, cultural, and economic shifts impacting the daily lives of Chinese people. In this paper, we explore the psychological implications of sociocultural transformation in China, emphasizing two central themes. First, rising individualism: findings from social and developmental psychology suggest that China’s rapid development has been accompanied by ever-increasing adherence to individualistic values. Second, rising rates of depression: findings from psychiatric epidemiology point to increasing prevalence of depression over this same time period, particularly in rural settings. We argue that links between sociocultural and psychological shifts in China can be usefully studied through a cultural psychology lens, emphasizing the mutual constitution of culture, mind, and brain. In particular, we note that the link between social change, individualism, and rising mental illness deserves careful attention. Our review suggests that shifting values and socialization practices shape emotion norms of concealment and display, with implications for depressive symptom presentation. The challenge comes with interpretation. Increasing prevalence rates of depression may indeed be a general response to the rapidity of sociocultural change, or a specific consequence of rising individualism—but may also result from increasingly ‘Western’ patterns of symptom presentation, or improvements in diagnostic practice. We conclude by considering the challenges posed to standard universal models of psychological phenomena.

  7. The Chinese Experience of Rapid Modernization: Sociocultural Changes, Psychological Consequences?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jiahong; Ryder, Andrew G.

    2016-01-01

    Mainland China has undergone profound changes dating back to the nineteenth century, including a contemporary period of rapid modernization that began in the 1980s. The result has been dramatic social, cultural, and economic shifts impacting the daily lives of Chinese people. In this paper, we explore the psychological implications of sociocultural transformation in China, emphasizing two central themes. First, rising individualism: findings from social and developmental psychology suggest that China’s rapid development has been accompanied by ever-increasing adherence to individualistic values. Second, rising rates of depression: findings from psychiatric epidemiology point to increasing prevalence of depression over this same time period, particularly in rural settings. We argue that links between sociocultural and psychological shifts in China can be usefully studied through a cultural psychology lens, emphasizing the mutual constitution of culture, mind, and brain. In particular, we note that the link between social change, individualism, and rising mental illness deserves careful attention. Our review suggests that shifting values and socialization practices shape emotion norms of concealment and display, with implications for depressive symptom presentation. The challenge comes with interpretation. Increasing prevalence rates of depression may indeed be a general response to the rapidity of sociocultural change, or a specific consequence of rising individualism—but may also result from increasingly ‘Western’ patterns of symptom presentation, or improvements in diagnostic practice. We conclude by considering the challenges posed to standard universal models of psychological phenomena. PMID:27092093

  8. Structural modelling of economic growth: Technological changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukharev Oleg

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Neoclassical and Keynesian theories of economic growth assume the use of Cobb-Douglas modified functions and other aggregate econometric approaches to growth dynamics modelling. In that case explanations of economic growth are based on the logic of the used mathematical ratios often including the ideas about aggregated values change and factors change a priori. The idea of assessment of factor productivity is the fundamental one among modern theories of economic growth. Nevertheless, structural parameters of economic system, institutions and technological changes are practically not considered within known approaches, though the latter is reflected in the changing parameters of production function. At the same time, on the one hand, the ratio of structural elements determines the future value of the total productivity of the factors and, on the other hand, strongly influences the rate of economic growth and its mode of innovative dynamics. To put structural parameters of economic system into growth models with the possibility of assessment of such modes under conditions of interaction of new and old combinations is an essential step in the development of the theory of economic growth/development. It allows forming stimulation policy of economic growth proceeding from the structural ratios and relations recognized for this economic system. It is most convenient in such models to use logistic functions demonstrating the resource change for old and new combination within the economic system. The result of economy development depends on starting conditions, and on institutional parameters of velocity change of resource borrowing in favour of a new combination and creation of its own resource. Model registration of the resource is carried out through the idea of investments into new and old combinations.

  9. Economic Development and Cultural Change

    OpenAIRE

    Salehi-Isfahani, D.; Marku, M.

    2011-01-01

    The Islamic Revolution of 1979, the 8-year war with Iraq (1980-88), and the collapse of oil prices in 1986 dealt huge blows to Iran's economy. In this article, we use a pseudopanel constructed from annual multiple surveys during 1984-2004 to analyze changes in cohort earnings and consumption through these tumultuous times. Using well-known techniques, we decompose the changes in median cohort earnings of men into cohort, age, and year effects. Our results show that cohorts born before 1950, w...

  10. Economic growth and change in southeast Alaska.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhonda Mazza

    2004-01-01

    This report focuses on economic trends since the 1970s in rural southeast Alaska. These trends are compared with those in the Nation and in nonmetropolitan areas of the country to determine the extent to which the economy in rural southeast Alaska is affected by regional activity and by larger market forces. Many of the economic changes occurring in rural southeast...

  11. Demographic and Economic Changes and Postsecondary Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charner, Ivan

    The interaction of demographic and economic shifts has led to, and will continue to effect, changes in the postsecondary education system and institutions. Demographic shifts include aging of the population, more women in the paid labor force, and increased numbers of minorities. Economic shifts include the growth of the information sector,…

  12. Implementing plant design changes economically

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seamans, L.D.

    1994-01-01

    Consumers Power Company, as is the case with most utilities, is challenged by the necessity to control non-modification design changes. At the Consumers' Palisades Nuclear Plant, the challenge was met by the establishment of a project team that developed an innovative comprehensive design control process called Functional Equivalent Substitution (FES). This paper describes: (1) the project team composition; (2) the process development methodology; and (3) the implementation results

  13. Discounting in economics and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordhaus, W.D.

    1997-01-01

    This paper examines the complexity of the issues surrounding the discounting issue as applied to the economics of climatic change. It is assumed that living standards will continue to improve, and that future generations will be more able to resource environmental improvements than our own. Measures to counter climate change now may have a deleterious effect on economic growth. Approaches to this situation include: lowering the discount rate; differential discounting; climate targeting; and emissions or concentrations limitations. Policies that focus directly on reducing pollutants are likely to have fewer deleterious economic effects than those that manipulate the discount rate on goods. 3 refs., 2 figs

  14. Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lasse Folke

    2013-01-01

    Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...... of models in Danish economic policy, where, from the 1970s onwards, executive public servants in this area have exclusively been specialists in model design. To understand changes in economic policy, this paper starts with a discussion of whether the notion of paradigm shift is adequate. It then examines...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept...

  15. Public health in a rapidly changing world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana I. Andreeva

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Several months in 2013 and 2014 have been a hardly predictable time in Ukraine, and the situation is still far from being stable. This made the editorial team of TCPHEE based in Ukraine postpone publishing consecutive issues. However, while the situation still requires practical steps, many aspects including those related to public health require analysis and debate. Thus we invite opinion pieces and studies addressing all different spheres of how public health should function under changing social circumstances. There might be a wide range of such related topics. The most obvious ones are those linked to changing living conditions. Many studies have been undertaken and published with regard to health threats to refugees, people involved in natural or technical disasters (Noji, 2005. Along with environmental health threats, there might be mental health disturbances (World Health Organization, 1992 resulting from long-term strain, losses et cetera. Another important focus is related to changes in health services provision. Crimea, which is a former Ukrainian territory now occupied by the Russian Federation, was among those in Ukraine highly affected with HIV (Dehne, Khodakevich, Hamers, & Schwartlander, 1999. This was responded by several NGOs actively providing harm reduction services to high-risk groups along with methadone substitution therapy to opiate users and antiretroviral medicines to those HIV-infected (Curtis, 2010. However, there are news reports that Russia is going to stop provision of methadone (kommersant.ru, 2014. As opiate substitution programs have been shown an effective approach towards preventing HIV transmission among people who inject drugs (MacArthur et al., 2012, such change in public health policies might affect not only most at risk populations but their partners and population as a whole as well resulting in a rapid spread of HIV. Yet another related topic is that of how health services can be organized at times of

  16. An Explanation of Economic Change and Development

    OpenAIRE

    Fusari, Angelo

    2014-01-01

    The contribution to the explanation of economic change that this paper sets out is centered on a core of interconnected endogenous variables, mainly innovation, radical uncertainty and entrepreneurship, which current economic analyses consider only in part and separately, sometimes as endogenous but for the most as exogenous. The article (and the formalized model) suppose that the functioning of the economy is not disturbed by the operation of pathological factors mainly concer...

  17. Institutions, Technological Change and Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Corderí Novoa

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Theories of economic growth try to explain variations in per capita income across countries by differences in capital accumulation and productivity. However, many scholars consider that integrating institutions into economic theory and economic history is an essential step in improving explanations of why some societies are richer than others. This paper develops the empirical and theoretical case that differences in institutions are the fundamental cause of differences in technological change (productivity, hence in economic growth. First, I give a definition of institutions and how they influence economic performance, from a New Institutional Economics point of view. Then, I introduce the theoretical framework based on the economics of ideas and endogenous growth models. Finally, I argue that R&D expenditures -a proxy for technological change- will vary across countries depending on some measures of institutional quality. In the end, this paper finds that stronger institutions (measured by an aggregate of institutional quality encourage greater R&D expenditures. At a disaggregate level, the rule of law is positively correlated and the regulatory burden is negatively correlated with R&D expenditures. Human capital level (measured by the tertiary and primary school enrolment rates has also a significant positive impact in R&D expenditures.

  18. Structural Change and Economic Development in China and India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vittorio Valli

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The comparison of the periods of rapid economic growth in China since 1978 and India since 1992 markedly show different patterns of development and structural change. However, both countries experienced some advantages of "relative economic backwardness" and some aspects of the "fordist model of growth". China had an anticipated and deeper structural change, spurred mainly by economic reforms and the growth of the internal market in the 1980s, and, since the mid-1990s, by a very rapid penetration of its industrial products in the world market. However, a substantial part of China's exports in medium and high tech sectors are due to joint-ventures with foreign multinationals. India had a more balanced structural change and a slower insertion in the world market, although some sectors, such as software, steel, automotive and pharmaceuticals are recently increasing their share in the world markets. Owing to the huge number of micro-enterprises and the great size of the informal sector, India benefited much less than China from the economies of scale and from the third wave of the "fordist model of growth". Both countries, but in particular China, experienced negative externalities of this recent phase of rapid growth, such as higher inequalities, pollution and urban congestion.

  19. Economic Growth, Climate Change, and Obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minos, Dimitrios; Butzlaff, Iris; Demmler, Kathrin Maria; Rischke, Ramona

    2016-12-01

    Human and planetary health as well as economic growth are firmly interlinked and subject to complex interaction effects. In this paper, we provide an overview of interlinkages between economic growth, climate change, and obesity focusing on recent advances in the literature. In addition to empirical findings, we discuss different theoretical frameworks used to conceptualize these complex links and highlight policy options and challenges. We conclude that policies addressing both climate change and obesity simultaneously are particularly promising and often suitable for ensuring sustainable development.

  20. Changing the Dominant Paradigm in Economics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria de Lourdes Mollo

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This article addresses the discussion proposed by the World Academy of Art & Science (WAAS about the need to build a new paradigm to confront the challenges of the global society and to move across to a New Society discussing specific problems related to economic globalization and proposing changes. The ways in which economic orthodoxy and heterodoxy analyze the role of the State and the question of sustainability of development and the problems of environmental sustainability depend on their different views or theoretical arguments about the role of the market. The article contrasts the mainstream economics arguments to support the free market context of globalization with Post-Keynesian and Marxist’s skeptical or critical views. Finally, it proposes some strategies to face the critical aspects analyzed making suggestions to move to another dominant economic paradigm.

  1. Economics of adaptation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perthuis, Ch.; Hallegatte, St.; Lecocq, F.

    2010-02-01

    This report proposes a general economic framework for the issue of adaptation to climate change in order to help public and private actors to build up efficient adaptation strategies. It proposes a general definition of adaptation, identifies the major stakes for these strategies, and discusses the assessment of global costs of adaptation to climate change. It discusses the role and modalities of public action and gives some examples of possible adaptation measures in some important sectors (building and town planning, energy and transport infrastructures, water and agriculture, ecosystems, insurance). It examines the regional and national dimensions of adaptation and their relationship, and defines steps for implementing an adaptation strategy. It describes and discusses the use of economic tools in the elaboration of an adaptation strategy, i.e. how to take uncertainties into account, which scenarios to choose, how to use economic calculations to assess adaptation policies

  2. On climate change and economic growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fankhauser, Samuel; Tol, Richard S.J.

    2005-01-01

    The economic impact of climate change is usually measured as the extent to which the climate of a given period affects social welfare in that period. This static approach ignores the dynamic effects through which climate change may affect economic growth and hence future welfare. In this paper we take a closer look at these dynamic effects, in particular saving and capital accumulation. With a constant savings rate, a lower output due to climate change will lead to a proportionate reduction in investment which in turn will depress future production (capital accumulation effect) and, in almost all cases, future consumption per capita. If the savings rate is endogenous, forward looking agents would change their savings behavior to accommodate the impact of future climate change. This suppresses growth prospects in absolute and per capita terms (savings effect). In an endogenous growth context, these two effects may be exacerbated through changes in labour productivity and the rate of technical progress. Simulations using a simple climate-economy model suggest that the capital accumulation effect is important, especially if technological change is endogenous, and may be larger than the direct impact of climate change. The savings effect is less pronounced. The dynamic effects are more important, relative to the direct effects, if climate change impacts are moderate overall. This suggests that they are more of a concern in developed countries, which are believed to be less vulnerable to climate change. The magnitude of dynamic effects is not sensitive to the choice of discount rate

  3. Economics of Climate Change Adaptation | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Literature on the economics of climate change adaptation - especially in developing countries - is generally scarce, and this weakens the premise on which adaptation decisions are made. Moreover, there is no standard framework or toolkit to guide researchers and policymakers in this kind of decision-making. This grant ...

  4. Urbanization, Economic Development and Environmental Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shushu Li

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper applies the pressure-state-response (PSR model to establish environmental quality indices for 30 administrative regions in China from 2003 to 2011 and employs panel data analysis to study the relationships among the urbanization rate, economic development and environmental change. The results reveal a remarkable inverted-U-shaped relationship between the urbanization rate and changes in regional environmental quality; the “turning point” generally appears near an urbanization rate of 60%. In addition, the degree and mode of economic development have significant, but anisotropic effects on the regional environment. Generally, at a higher degree of economic development, the environment will tend to improve, but an extensive economic growth program that simply aims to increase GDP has a clear negative impact on the environment. Overall, the results of this paper not only further confirm the “environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis”, but also expand it in a manner. The analysis in this paper implies that the inverted-U-shaped evolving relationship between environmental quality and economic growth (urbanization is universally applicable.

  5. Rethinking the economics of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Damian, Michel

    2012-05-01

    The paper makes a case for rethinking the economics of climate change. It questions the way the problem was conventionally framed and solved through top-down international cooperation and carbon emission permits, taxes and pricing. The paper argues that the on-going industrial and energy transition reflects a paradigmatic shift as compared to neoclassical environmental economics that has framed climate policy since the Rio conference in 1992. On a normative basis, the paper maintains that a carbon tax should not follow a Pigovian rationale. To be feasible such a tax should be of a Marshallian nature, i.e. earmarked, and rather modest at the beginning. (author)

  6. Economic and policy issues in climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordhaus, W.D.

    1998-01-01

    Global climate change has emerged as one of today's most challenging and controversial policy issues. In this significant new contribution, a roster of premier scholars examines economic and social aspects of that far-reaching phenomenon. Although the 1997 summit in Kyoto focused world attention on climate, it was just one step in an ongoing process. Research by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been ongoing since 1988. An extensive IPCC Working Group report published in 1995 examined the economic and social aspects of climate change. In this new volume, eminent economists assess that IPCC report and address the questions that emerge. William Nordhaus's introduction establishes the context for this book. It provides basic scientific background, reviews the IPCC's activities, and explains the genesis of the project

  7. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change provides data and information on global and regional land cover change in raster format for...

  8. The impact of rapid economic growth and globalization on zinc nutrition in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwun, In-Sook; Do, Mi-Sook; Chung, Hae-Rang; Kim, Yang Ha; Beattie, John H

    2009-08-01

    Zn deficiency may be widespread in Asian countries such as South Korea. However, dietary habits have changed in response to rapid economic growth and globalization. Zn nutrition in South Koreans has therefore been assessed during a period (1969-1998) of unprecedented economic growth. Cross-sectional food consumption data from the Korean National Nutrition Survey Reports (KNNSR) of South Korea at four separate time points (1969, 1978, 1988 and 1998) were used to calculate Zn, Ca and phytate intakes using various food composition tables, databases and literature values. Nutrient values in local foods were cited from their analysed values. Average Zn intake was 5.8, 4.8 and 5.3 mg/d for 1969, 1978 and 1988 respectively, increasing to 7.3 mg/d in 1998 (73 % of the Korean Dietary Reference Intake). The phytate:Zn molar ratio decreased from 21 to 8 during the study period. Dietary Zn depletion due to marked decreases in cereal consumption, particularly barley which has a low Zn bioavailability, was counterbalanced by marked increases in the consumption of meat and fish, which are also Zn-rich foods. Reduced phytate consumption coincident with increased Zn intake suggests that Zn bioavailability also improved, particularly by 1998. Although total Zn intake was not greatly affected over the initial period of economic growth in South Korea (1969-1988), Zn contributions from different food sources changed markedly and both Zn intake and potential bioavailability were improved by 1998. The study may have implications for Zn nutrition in other Asian countries currently experiencing rapid economic growth.

  9. Are rapid changes in brain elasticity possible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, K. J.

    2017-09-01

    Elastography of the brain is a topic of clinical and preclinical research, motivated by the potential for viscoelastic measures of the brain to provide sensitive indicators of pathological processes, and to assist in early diagnosis. To date, studies of the normal brain and of those with confirmed neurological disorders have reported a wide range of shear stiffness and shear wave speeds, even within similar categories. A range of factors including the shear wave frequency, and the age of the individual are thought to have a possible influence. However, it may be that short term dynamics within the brain may have an influence on the measured stiffness. This hypothesis is addressed quantitatively using the framework of the microchannel flow model, which derives the tissue stiffness, complex modulus, and shear wave speed as a function of the vascular and fluid network in combination with the elastic matrix that comprise the brain. Transformation rules are applied so that any changes in the fluid channels or the elastic matrix can be mapped to changes in observed elastic properties on a macroscopic scale. The results are preliminary but demonstrate that measureable, time varying changes in brain stiffness are possible simply by accounting for vasodynamic or electrochemical changes in the state of any region of the brain. The value of this preliminary exploration is to identify possible mechanisms and order-of-magnitude changes that may be testable in vivo by specialized protocols.

  10. Economic impacts of bus rapid transit in southeast Michigan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    In recent years, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) has generated great interest across the United States. There are more than 20 BRT : systems in existence, and more are in the planning stage (including in Detroit). Within the next few years, BRT will be plann...

  11. Economic theory and climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, I.; Ackerman, F.

    1999-01-01

    Our willingness to embrace climate change policies depends on our perception of their benefits and costs. Evaluation of these costs and benefits requires careful economic analysis. Yet the standard tools for such assessment - computable general equilibrium (CGE) models - are inadequate on several grounds. Their underlying theory suffers from well-known logical difficulties; in general, their equilibria may be neither unique, stable, nor efficient. Moreover, real-world phenomena such as increasing returns to scale, learning, and technological innovation are neglected in CGE models. These phenomena make the resulting equilibria in the models inefficient; in the real world they can lock society into sub-optimal technology choices. They introduce uncertainty and path-dependence, annihilating the concept of a single efficient allocation produced by the unfettered market. Yet conventional economics assesses the cost of policies solely on the basis of their departure from a purportedly efficient equilibrium - ignoring deeper structural changes that are often decisive in practice. New socioeconomic theories and models are emerging that allow for bounded rationality, the limiting and enabling character of institutions, technological change, and the complexities and uncertainties in economic evolution. Meanwhile, existing models should be modified to better reflect real-world phenomena and to abandon unfounded assumptions about the inherent ''inefficiencies'' of government intervention in the market. (author)

  12. Treating worker dissatisfaction during economic change

    CERN Document Server

    Glicken, Morley D

    2013-01-01

    In the current economy, companies are expected to turn on a dime in response to changing market needs to stay vibrant. What that means is that companies are constantly reorganizing. Employees are living in a constant state of change. This dynamic in the workplace has affected worker satisfaction, morale, and burnout. This is the first treatment manual to focus on treating job-related issues, whether it's conflict in the workplace, stress, burnout, performance, and more. Divided into two parts, Part One sets the stage with a discussion of the economic climate and how it impacts businesses, h

  13. Social psychiatry in a rapidly changing world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas K. J. Craig

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Many societies around the world are experiencing a period of unprecedented change in traditional social roles and customs. Globalisation has contributed to materialism and a me-first individualism that heightens awareness of income inequality that itself is one of the most robust markers of unhappiness in society. Ever increasing urbanisation has driven an erosion of large ‘joint’ family arrangements to be replaced by smaller and relatively isolated nuclear families and single parent living. Mass migration has unmasked deep seated fear and prejudice towards the outsider in society. These global changes are fertile ground for the social conditions that have long been known to be risks for mental illness – poverty, poor quality child care, social isolation and the active discrimination and exclusion of the alien, the physically disabled and mentally ill. While there is little we can do to reverse global change, there is much a social psychiatrist can do to mitigate the effect, ensuring his/her voice is added to other calls for reducing discriminatory practice, promoting evidence-based social interventions such as parenting advice and peer support and ensuring that the success of a treatment is measured not just in terms of symptomatic improvement but in whether it results in an outcome that is valued by the patient.

  14. Rapidly changing flows in the Earth's core

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Mandea, M.

    2008-01-01

    A large part of the Earth's magnetic field is generated by fluid motion in the molten outer core(1). As a result of continuous satellite measurements since 1999, the core magnetic field and its recent variations can now be described with a high resolution in space and time(2). These data have...... field occurring over only a few months, indicative of fluid flow at the top of the core, can in fact be resolved. Using nine years of magnetic field data obtained by satellites as well as Earth-based observatories, we determine the temporal changes in the core magnetic field and flow in the core. We...

  15. Rapid Communication: seniority changing transitions in yrast states ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Bhoomika Maheshwari

    2017-10-26

    Oct 26, 2017 ... Rapid Communication: v = 2 seniority changing ... has been extensively used to understand various system- .... states. This understanding supports the previous inter- ..... Financial support from the Ministry of Human Resource.

  16. Socio-economic status by rapid appraisal is highly correlated with mortality risks in rural Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bodegom, D.; May, L.; Kuningas, M.; Kaptijn, R.; Thomese, G.C.F.; Meij, H.J.; Amankwa, J.; Westendorp, R.G.J.

    2009-01-01

    Socio-economic status is an important determinant of health and survival in rural Africa and necessitates a practical and valid instrument to implement in health studies. Our objective was to investigate the validity of the rapid appraisal method to assess socio-economic status and its ability to

  17. Ecosystem stewardship: sustainability strategies for a rapidly changing planet

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Stuart Chapin; Stephen R. Carpenter; Gary P. Kofinas; Carl Folke; Nick Abel; William C. Clark; Per Olsson; D. Mark Stafford Smith; Brian Walker; Oran R. Young; Fikret Berkes; Reinette Biggs; J. Morgan Grove; Rosamond L. Naylor; Evelyn Pinkerton; Will Steffen; Frederick J. Swanson

    2010-01-01

    Ecosystem stewardship is an action-oriented framework intended to foster the social-ecological sustainability of a rapidly changing planet. Recent developments identify three strategies that make optimal use of current understanding in an environment of inevitable uncertainty and abrupt change: reducing the magnitude of, and exposure and sensitivity to, known stresses...

  18. Quantifying the economic risks of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, Delavane; Moore, Frances

    2017-11-01

    Understanding the value of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions matters for policy decisions and climate risk management, but quantification is challenging because of the complex interactions and uncertainties in the Earth and human systems, as well as normative ethical considerations. Current modelling approaches use damage functions to parameterize a simplified relationship between climate variables, such as temperature change, and economic losses. Here we review and synthesize the limitations of these damage functions and describe how incorporating impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research advances and empirical findings could substantially improve damage modelling and the robustness of social cost of carbon values produced. We discuss the opportunities and challenges associated with integrating these research advances into cost-benefit integrated assessment models, with guidance for future work.

  19. Rethinking species’ ability to cope with rapid climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hof, Christian; Levinsky, Irina; Bastos Araujo, Miguel

    2011-01-01

    Ongoing climate change is assumed to be exceptional because of its unprecedented velocity. However, new geophysical research suggests that dramatic climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene occurred extremely rapid, over just a few years. These abrupt climatic changes may have been even faster...... than contemporary ones, but relatively few continent-wide extinctions of species have been documented for these periods. This raises questions about the ability of extant species to adapt to ongoing climate change. We propose that the advances in geophysical research challenge current views about...... species' ability to cope with climate change, and that lessons must be learned for modelling future impacts of climate change on species....

  20. The economics of climate change and the change of climate in economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marechal, Kevin

    2007-01-01

    Economics is an unavoidable decision-making tool in the field of climate policy. At the same time, traditional economics is being challenged both empirically and theoretically by scholars in different fields. Its non-neutrality in dealing with climate-related issues-which is illustrated by the controversy over the 'no-regret potential'-would thus call for an opening of economics to insights from other disciplines. Within that context, we show that an evolutionary-inspired line of thought coupled with a systemic and historical perspective of technological change provides a very insightful alternative to traditional economics. More particularly, it follows from that framework that the picture of the climate challenge ahead looks very different from what traditional economic analyses would suggest. For instance, the lock-in process makes it unlikely that traditional cost-efficient measures (such as carbon taxation or tradable emission rights) will be sufficient to bring about the required radical changes in the field of energy as they fail to address structural barriers highlighted in our approach

  1. Economics and politics of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hahn, R.W.

    1998-01-01

    A fundamental issue is what steps, if any, nations should take to control greenhouse gas emissions. Robert Hahn argues that over the next decade the best strategy for policy makers is to build institutions that can address climate change in the future by developing a capacity at the nation-state level to measure greenhouse gas emissions and to implement and enforce cost-effective ways of limiting emissions. Policy makers must also improve the capacity of an international body to assess greenhouse gas inventories and review national policies. Hahn recommends that the developed nations craft an agreement for the next decade that provides a slight emission limitation and allows for a series of case studies, in which developing nations would participate, to preserve diversity and build useful institutional knowledge. The Economics and Politics of Climate Change is one in a series of new AEI studies related to the globalization of environmental policy. These studies will focus on specific issues and on the new institutional arrangements required to deal with them. A list of publications in this series appears inside

  2. Climate Change Observation Accuracy: Requirements and Economic Value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielicki, Bruce; Cooke, Roger; Golub, Alexander; Baize, Rosemary; Mlynczak, Martin; Lukashin, Constantin; Thome, Kurt; Shea, Yolanda; Kopp, Greg; Pilewskie, Peter; hide

    2016-01-01

    This presentation will summarize a new quantitative approach to determining the required accuracy for climate change observations. Using this metric, most current global satellite observations struggle to meet this accuracy level. CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) is a new satellite mission designed to resolve this challenge is by achieving advances of a factor of 10 for reflected solar spectra and a factor of 3 to 5 for thermal infrared spectra. The CLARREO spectrometers can serve as SI traceable benchmarks for the Global Satellite Intercalibration System (GSICS) and greatly improve the utility of a wide range of LEO and GEO infrared and reflected solar satellite sensors for climate change observations (e.g. CERES, MODIS, VIIIRS, CrIS, IASI, Landsat, etc). A CLARREO Pathfinder mission for flight on the International Space Station is included in the U.S. Presidentâ€"TM"s fiscal year 2016 budget, with launch in 2019 or 2020. Providing more accurate decadal change trends can in turn lead to more rapid narrowing of key climate science uncertainties such as cloud feedback and climate sensitivity. A new study has been carried out to quantify the economic benefits of such an advance and concludes that the economic value is $9 Trillion U.S. dollars. The new value includes the cost of carbon emissions reductions.

  3. Beyond demographics is destiny: understanding economic mitigation strategies for demographic change in China

    OpenAIRE

    Judy, John B.

    2015-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited The favorable demographics that have contributed to China’s rapid economic growth are changing. China’s working-age population is currently peaking and within two decades its overall population will begin to shrink. In addition to a shrinking working-age population, China will see an increase in the elderly population and a rising dependency ratio. This demographic change may have an economically significant impact. If China’s enormous...

  4. Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

    2014-03-01

    With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

  5. Method for producing rapid pH changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, J.H.; Campillo, A.J.; Shapiro, S.L.; Winn, K.R.

    A method of initiating a rapid pH change in a solution comprises irradiating the solution with an intense flux of electromagnetic radiation of a frequency which produces a substantial pK change to a compound in solution. To optimize the resulting pH change, the compound being irradiated in solution should have an excited state lifetime substantially longer than the time required to establish an excited state acid-base equilibrium in the solution. Desired pH changes can be accomplished in nanoseconds or less by means of picosecond pulses of laser radiation.

  6. Rapid Communication: v= 2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Pramana – Journal of Physics; Volume 89; Issue 5. Rapid Communication: Δ υ = 2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3 − states and B ( E 3 ) systematics of Sn isotopes. BHOOMIKA MAHESHWARI SWATI GARG ASHOK KUMAR JAIN. Research Article Volume 89 Issue 5 November 2017 Article ID 75 ...

  7. Welfare Evaluation and the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Welfare Evaluation and the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Water Supply ... In a context of positive economic growth, demand for water is expected to ... Socially equitable climate action is essential to strengthen the resilience of all ...

  8. Major rapid weight loss induces changes in cardiac repolarization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vedel-Larsen, Esben; Iepsen, Eva Winning; Lundgren, Julie

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Obesity is associated with increased all-cause mortality, but weight loss may not decrease cardiovascular events. In fact, very low calorie diets have been linked to arrhythmias and sudden death. The QT interval is the standard marker for cardiac repolarization, but T-wave morphology...... analysis has been suggested as a more sensitive method to identify changes in cardiac repolarization. We examined the effect of a major and rapid weight loss on T-wave morphology. METHODS AND RESULTS: Twenty-six individuals had electrocardiograms (ECG) taken before and after eight weeks of weight loss......A1c (pweight loss induces changes in cardiac repolarization. Monitoring of MCS during calorie restriction makes it possible to detect repolarization changes with higher discriminative power than the QT-interval during major rapid weight...

  9. Political regime change, economic liberalization and growth accelerations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong-A-Pin, Richard; De Haan, Jakob

    We examine whether the type of political regime, regime changes, and economic liberalization are related to economic growth accelerations. Our results show that growth accelerations are preceded by economic liberalizations. We also find that growth accelerations are less likely to happen the longer

  10. Economic growth and technological change : an evolutionary interpretation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verspagen, B.

    2000-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to apply insights from evolutionary economic theory to the question of what can explain recent trends in economic growth, with emphasis on the role of technological change. Obviously, a basic question that precedes this question is "what is evolutionary economic theory"? The

  11. Perceptual classification in a rapidly-changing environment

    OpenAIRE

    Summerfield, Christopher; Behrens, Timothy E.; Koechlin, Etienne

    2011-01-01

    Humans and monkeys can learn to classify perceptual information in a statistically optimal fashion if the functional groupings remain stable over many hundreds of trials, but little is known about categorisation when the environment changes rapidly. Here, we used a combination of computational modelling and functional neuroimaging to understand how humans classify visual stimuli drawn from categories whose mean and variance jumped unpredictably. Models based on optimal learning (Bayesian mode...

  12. Thermo-economic analysis of combined power plants with changing economic parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bidini, G.; Desideri, U.; Facchini, B.

    1991-01-01

    A method of thermo-economic analysis for the choice of optimal thermodynamic parameters of steam bottoming cycles in combined cycle power plants is presented. By keeping the thermodynamic aspects separated from the economic aspects, this method allows designers to easily perform a sensitivity analysis of the change in the economic parameters

  13. Integrated ocean management as a strategy to meet rapid climate change: the Norwegian case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoel, Alf Håkon; Olsen, Erik

    2012-02-01

    The prospects of rapid climate change and the potential existence of tipping points in marine ecosystems where nonlinear change may result from them being overstepped, raises the question of strategies for coping with ecosystem change. There is broad agreement that the combined forces of climate change, pollution and increasing economic activities necessitates more comprehensive approaches to oceans management, centering on the concept of ecosystem-based oceans management. This article addresses the Norwegian experience in introducing integrated, ecosystem-based oceans management, emphasizing how climate change, seen as a major long-term driver of change in ecosystems, is addressed in management plans. Understanding the direct effects of climate variability and change on ecosystems and indirect effects on human activities is essential for adaptive planning to be useful in the long-term management of the marine environment.

  14. Managing health care organizations in an age of rapid change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benjamin, S; al-Alaiwat, S

    1998-03-01

    Health care managers find their work increasingly difficult, due in part to rapid environmental change that plagues organizational life. Management practices and attitudes that may have been appropriate in previous eras are ineffective today. A study was conducted among managers in the Ministry of Health, State of Bahrain, seeking information about current trends in the macro or external environment that affect the Ministry of Health, as well as internal environmental pressures that may be similar or different. This article provides a clear picture of the context in which managers perform their work and offers recommendations for coping with change in dynamic, complex organizations.

  15. Management system of organizational and economic changes in health services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Vasilyevna Krivenko

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In the article, the definitions of the concept organizational and economic changes in institution problems of changes in public health service, the purpose and issues of the management system of organizational and economic changes in the field are considered. The combined strategy of development and innovative changes in management is offered. The need of resource-saving technologies implementation is shown. Expediency of use of marketing tools in a management system of organizational and economic changes is considered the mechanism of improvement of planning and pricing in public health service is offered. The author’s model of management of organizational and economic changes in health services supporting achievement of medical, social, economic efficiency in Yekaterinburg's trauma care is presented. Strategy of traumatism prevention is determined on the basis of interdepartmental approach and territorial segmentation of health care market

  16. Middle Holocene rapid environmental changes and human adaptation in Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lespez, Laurent; Glais, Arthur; Lopez-Saez, José-Antonio; Le Drezen, Yann; Tsirtsoni, Zoï; Davidson, Robert; Biree, Laetitia; Malamidou, Dimitra

    2016-03-01

    Numerous researchers discuss of the collapse of civilizations in response to abrupt climate change in the Mediterranean region. The period between 6500 and 5000 cal yr BP is one of the least studied episodes of rapid climate change at the end of the Late Neolithic. This period is characterized by a dramatic decline in settlement and a cultural break in the Balkans. High-resolution paleoenvironmental proxy data obtained in the Lower Angitis Valley enables an examination of the societal responses to rapid climatic change in Greece. Development of a lasting fluvio-lacustrine environment followed by enhanced fluvial activity is evident from 6000 cal yr BP. Paleoecological data show a succession of dry events at 5800-5700, 5450 and 5000-4900 cal yr BP. These events correspond to incursion of cold air masses to the eastern Mediterranean, confirming the climatic instability of the middle Holocene climate transition. Two periods with farming and pastural activities (6300-5600 and 5100-4700 cal BP) are evident. The intervening period is marked by environmental changes, but the continuous occurrence of anthropogenic taxa suggests the persistence of human activities despite the absence of archaeological evidence. The environmental factors alone were not sufficient to trigger the observed societal changes.

  17. Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, Melanie

    2007-01-01

    Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

  18. Economic Growth, Structural Change and Productive Employment Linkages in India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aggarwal, Aradhna

    2018-01-01

    This article presents a quantitative analysis of growth, structural change and employment linkages at the aggregate level and by sector under the state- and market-led regimes in India. The underlying objectives are: (a) to understand how economic liberalization has affected the economic and labour...... intervention to broad base structural change for generating productive employment, which is at the core of poverty reduction....

  19. On being a scientist in a rapidly changing world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandel, I D

    1996-02-01

    The practice of biological science has changed dramatically since mid-century, reshaped not only by a rapid series of landmark discoveries, but also by governmental directives, institutional policies, and public attitudes. Until 1964, the major influences were the mentor, who provided direction and indoctrination into the culture of science, and in dentistry, the newly established NIDR, which fueled the research engine with an expanding research and training program. The 1965-74 period witnessed the advent of the Institutional Review Board, an increased social involvement of biological scientists, and a recognition of the need for biological and physical safeguards in the conduct of research. The most turbulent years were 1975-89, when there was a confluence of animal rights activism and regulation, growing concerns with scientific fraud and publication malpractice, and the stresses and strains (and opportunities) resulting from the rapid expansion of the academic-industrial complex. The current period is characterized by rapid pace, high volume, and an increased depth and breadth of knowledge-a major change in scale in the conduct of science. It is an exciting time but one in which ethical issues are multiplying. Attention must be paid.

  20. Rapid Structural Design Change Evaluation with AN Experiment Based FEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, C.-H.; Trethewey, M. W.

    1998-04-01

    The work in this paper proposes a dynamic structural design model that can be developed in a rapid fashion. The approach endeavours to produce a simplified FEM developed in conjunction with an experimental modal database. The FEM is formulated directly from the geometry and connectivity used in an experimental modal test using beam/frame elements. The model sacrifices fine detail for a rapid development time. The FEM is updated at the element level so the dynamic response replicates the experimental results closely. The physical attributes of the model are retained, making it well suited to evaluate the effect of potential design changes. The capabilities are evaluated in a series of computational and laboratory tests. First, a study is performed with a simulated cantilever beam with a variable mass and stiffness distribution. The modal characteristics serve as the updating target with random noise added to simulate experimental uncertainty. A uniformly distributed FEM is developed and updated. The results show excellent results, all natural frequencies are within 0·001% with MAC values above 0·99. Next, the method is applied to predict the dynamic changes of a hardware portal frame structure for a radical design change. Natural frequency predictions from the original FEM differ by as much as almost 18% with reasonable MAC values. The results predicted from the updated model produce excellent results when compared to the actual hardware changes, the first five modal natural frequency difference is around 5% and the corresponding mode shapes producing MAC values above 0·98.

  1. Behavioral Economics and Climate Change Policy

    OpenAIRE

    John M. Gowdy

    2007-01-01

    The policy recommendations of most economists are based on the rational actor model of human behavior. Behavior is assumed to be self-regarding, preferences are assumed to be stable, and decisions are assumed to be unaffected by social context or frame of reference. The related fields of behavioral economics, game theory, and neuroscience have confirmed that human behavior is other regarding, and that people exhibit systematic patterns of decision-making that are "irrational" according to the...

  2. On Rural Financial and Accounting Work under the Background of Rapid Agricultural Economic Development

    OpenAIRE

    Tang, Yaozheng

    2013-01-01

    Under the background of rapid agricultural economic development, rural financial and accounting work is of great significance. From rural accounting management system, rural accountant allocation and rural accounting training, this paper analyzes current situations of rural accounting work in China. In rural financial and accounting work, there are following problems. (1) Accounting behavior is not standard, and basic accounting work is to be further strengthened; (2) Internal control is not ...

  3. How Rapid Change Affects Deltas in the Arctic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overeem, I.; Bendixen, M.

    2017-12-01

    Deltas form where the river drains into the ocean. Consequently, delta depositional processes are impacted by either changes in the respective river drainage basin or by changes in the regional marine environment. In a warming Arctic region rapid change has occurred over the last few decades in both the terrestrial domain as well as in the marine domain. Important terrestrial controls include 1) change in permafrost possibly destabilizing river banks, 2) strong seasonality of river discharge due to a short melting season, 3) high sediment supply if basins are extensively glaciated, 4) lake outbursts and ice jams favoring river flooding. Whereas in the Arctic marine domain sea ice loss promotes wave and storm surge impact, and increased longshore transport. We here ask which of these factors dominate any morphological change in Arctic deltas. First, we analyze hydrological data to assess change in Arctic-wide river discharge characteristics and timing, and sea ice concentration data to map changes in sea ice regime. Based on this observational analysis we set up a number of scenarios of change. We then model hypothetical small-scale delta formation considering change in these primary controls by setting up a numerical delta model, and combining it dynamically with a permafrost model. We find that for typical Greenlandic deltas changes in river forcing due to ice sheet melt dominate the morphological change, which is corroborated by mapping of delta progradation from aerial photos and satellite imagery. Whereas in other areas, along the North Slope and the Canadian Arctic small deltas are more stable or experienced retreat. Our preliminary coupled model allows us to further disentangle the impact of major forcing factors on delta evolution in high-latitude systems.

  4. The economics of climate change in agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zilberman, D.; Liu, Xuemei; Roland-Holst, D.; Sunding, D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a conceptual framework of the impact of climate change on agriculture. It assumes that climate change will result in a fertilization effect and a shift of agro-ecological conditions away from the Equator towards the Poles. The agro-ecological shift is likely to reduce yield because of reduced acreage and the fertilization effect will increase yield. The aggregate effect depends on whichever of the two dominates. The overall effect of climate change may be less significant than its distributional effects and the results are consistent with previous empirical studies. The impact of climate change depends on its pace. Faster changes in climate will result in higher cost. The assessment of the cost has to consider that climate change is a dynamic phenomenon that may require continuous adjustment. Environmental regulation that emphasizes conservation may increase cost of adjustment and environmental policies should emphasize adaptation and flexibility

  5. Directed Technical Change and Economic Growth Effects of Environmental Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse-Andersen, Peter Kjær

    2016-01-01

    A Schumpeterian growth model is developed to investigate how environmental policy affects economic growth when environmental policy also affects the direction of technical change. In contrast to previous models, production and pollution abatement technologies are embodied in separate intermediate...... unambiguously directs research efforts toward pollution abatement technologies and away from production technologies. This directed technical change reduces economic growth and pollution emission growth. Simulation results indicate that even large environmental policy reforms have small economic growth effects....... However, these economic growth effects have relatively large welfare effects which suggest that static models and exogenous growth models leave out an important welfare effect of environmental policy....

  6. Cosmic rays linked to rapid mid-latitude cloud changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. A. Laken

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The effect of the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR flux on Earth's climate is highly uncertain. Using a novel sampling approach based around observing periods of significant cloud changes, a statistically robust relationship is identified between short-term GCR flux changes and the most rapid mid-latitude (60°–30° N/S cloud decreases operating over daily timescales; this signal is verified in surface level air temperature (SLAT reanalysis data. A General Circulation Model (GCM experiment is used to test the causal relationship of the observed cloud changes to the detected SLAT anomalies. Results indicate that the anomalous cloud changes were responsible for producing the observed SLAT changes, implying that if there is a causal relationship between significant decreases in the rate of GCR flux (~0.79 GU, where GU denotes a change of 1% of the 11-year solar cycle amplitude in four days and decreases in cloud cover (~1.9 CU, where CU denotes a change of 1% cloud cover in four days, an increase in SLAT (~0.05 KU, where KU denotes a temperature change of 1 K in four days can be expected. The influence of GCRs is clearly distinguishable from changes in solar irradiance and the interplanetary magnetic field. However, the results of the GCM experiment are found to be somewhat limited by the ability of the model to successfully reproduce observed cloud cover. These results provide perhaps the most compelling evidence presented thus far of a GCR-climate relationship. From this analysis we conclude that a GCR-climate relationship is governed by both short-term GCR changes and internal atmospheric precursor conditions.

  7. Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ross, Andrew; Damon Matthews, H

    2009-01-01

    Recent research has highlighted risks associated with the use of climate engineering as a method of stabilizing global temperatures, including the possibility of rapid climate warming in the case of abrupt removal of engineered radiative forcing. In this study, we have used a simple climate model to estimate the likely range of temperature changes associated with implementation and removal of climate engineering. In the absence of climate engineering, maximum annual rates of warming ranged from 0.015 to 0.07 deg. C/year, depending on the model's climate sensitivity. Climate engineering resulted in much higher rates of warming, with the temperature change in the year following the removal of climate engineering ranging from 0.13 to 0.76 deg. C. High rates of temperature change were sustained for two decades following the removal of climate engineering; rates of change of 0.5 (0.3,0.1) deg. C/decade were exceeded over a 20 year period with 15% (75%, 100%) likelihood. Many ecosystems could be negatively affected by these rates of temperature change; our results suggest that climate engineering in the absence of deep emissions cuts could arguably constitute increased risk of dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system under the criteria laid out in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

  8. Dental Usage Under Changing Economic Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manski, Richard J.; Moeller, John F.; Chen, Haiyan; Schimmel, Jody; St Clair, Patricia A.; Pepper, John V.

    2012-01-01

    Objective The purpose of this article is to examine the relationship between changes in household finances (wealth and income) and changes in dental utilization at the onset of the recent recession in a population of older Americans. Methods Data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) were analyzed for U.S. individuals aged 51 years and older during the 2006 and 2008 waves of the HRS. We estimated logistic models of (1) starting and (2) stopping dental use between 2006 and 2008 survey periods as a function of changes in household wealth and income, controlling for other potentially confounding covariates. Results We found that only when household wealth falls by 50 percent or more were older adults less likely to seek dental care. Changes in household income and other changes in household wealth were not associated with changes in dental utilization among this population. Conclusions Older Americans’ dental care utilization appeared to be fairly resilient to changes in household finances; only when wealth fell by 50 percent or more did individuals decrease dental use. This finding might extend to other health care services that are preventive, routine, and relatively inexpensive. PMID:22994647

  9. The Arctic: between climatic change, economic development and security issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Degeorges, Damien

    2016-01-01

    The Arctic is a perfect illustration of how climate change is impacting international relations, in particular because it triggers new economic and safety issues. Since every major economic power has interests in the region, it has now become the stage of many rivalries, including between China and the United-States. Whether it is because its extreme climate conditions or the growing international pressure, the Arctic sets a new challenge for investors: securing a sustainable economic growth in the region

  10. Technical change and economic policy: science and technology in the new economic and social context

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1980-01-01

    Links between scientific research, technological development, and economic growth by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development are analyzed. The analysis is broken into four parts: (1) The New Economic and Social Context; (2) Trends in R and D and Innovation; (3) Technological Change and the Economy; and (4) Conclusions and Recommendations. The long-term structural nature of many of the problems facing western Europe are emphasized, and the limitations of short-term-demand management strategies in solving them.

  11. The Economic Costs of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn; Thurlow, James

    2015-01-01

    by rising sea levels and cyclone strikes. Overall, climate change is likely to reduce national income by between one and two percent by 2050 (relative to a historical baseline). Damages double under more extreme projections. Our findings suggest that there are net benefits from selected pre-emptive actions...

  12. Human Mobility Analysis for Extracting Local Interactions under Rapid Socio-Economic Transformation in Dawei, Myanmar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satomi Kimijima

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Understanding human mobility patterns provides knowledge about impacts of a socio-economic transformation in a rapidly urbanizing environment. This study assesses a long-term mobility data which uses a face-to-face questionnaire and GPS logger-based method of data collection for extracting socio-economic impacts from the rapid transformation. Conversion of mobility related information such as travel distance, direction, and time from the questionnaire survey into spatiotemporal information was carried out by developing an algorithm. To illustrate the proposed approach, a case study in Dawei Special Economic Zone, Myanmar was conducted. The results show that the questionnaire-based mobility data can be associated with GPS-based mobility data and diverse mobility patterns are found for different social groups in the stage of urban formation. The results enabled an understanding of the human dynamics in interactions, which can be used for monitoring rural sustainability and its challenges in the future with the background of the accelerated project development in the area.

  13. New policy challenges on a changing economic landscape | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2011-01-27

    Jan 27, 2011 ... New policy challenges on a changing economic landscape ... Consortium deals with a wide variety of issues, SEP works primarily through four ... strengthen and reform the institutions, rules and customs by which nations and ...

  14. Climate change, mobility, and women's economic empowerment in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2018-05-14

    May 14, 2018 ... Climate change, mobility, and women's economic empowerment in Pakistan ... engage in paid work, go to school, and stay safe and healthy in their daily ... initiative with the UK's Department for International Development, The ...

  15. A CBO Study: The Economics of Climate Change: A Primer

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2003-01-01

    This Congressional Budget Office (CBO) study-prepared at the request of the Ranking Member of the House Committee on Science-presents an overview of issues related to climate change, focusing primarily on its economic aspects...

  16. Costs of climate change: Economic value of Yakima River salmon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, D.M.; Shankle, S.A.; Scott, M.J.; Neitzel, D.A.; Chatters, J.C.

    1992-07-01

    This work resulted from a continuing multidisciplinary analysis of species preservation and global change. The paper explores the economic cost of a potential regional warming as it affects one Pacific Northwest natural resource, the spring chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshcawytscha). Climate change and planned habitat improvements impact the production and economic value of soling chinook salmon of the Yakima River tributary of the Columbia River in eastern Washington. The paper presents a derivation of the total economic value of a chinook salmon, which includes the summation of the existence, commercial, recreational, and capital values of the fish. When currently available commercial, recreational, existence, and capital values for chinook salmon were applied to estimated population changes, the estimated change in the economic value per fish associated with reduction of one fish run proved significant

  17. Rapid treatment-induced brain changes in pediatric CRPS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erpelding, Nathalie; Simons, Laura; Lebel, Alyssa; Serrano, Paul; Pielech, Melissa; Prabhu, Sanjay; Becerra, Lino; Borsook, David

    2016-03-01

    To date, brain structure and function changes in children with complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) as a result of disease and treatment remain unknown. Here, we investigated (a) gray matter (GM) differences between patients with CRPS and healthy controls and (b) GM and functional connectivity (FC) changes in patients following intensive interdisciplinary psychophysical pain treatment. Twenty-three patients (13 females, 9 males; average age ± SD = 13.3 ± 2.5 years) and 21 healthy sex- and age-matched controls underwent magnetic resonance imaging. Compared to controls, patients had reduced GM in the primary motor cortex, premotor cortex, supplementary motor area, midcingulate cortex, orbitofrontal cortex, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC), posterior cingulate cortex, precuneus, basal ganglia, thalamus, and hippocampus. Following treatment, patients had increased GM in the dlPFC, thalamus, basal ganglia, amygdala, and hippocampus, and enhanced FC between the dlPFC and the periaqueductal gray, two regions involved in descending pain modulation. Accordingly, our results provide novel evidence for GM abnormalities in sensory, motor, emotional, cognitive, and pain modulatory regions in children with CRPS. Furthermore, this is the first study to demonstrate rapid treatment-induced GM and FC changes in areas implicated in sensation, emotion, cognition, and pain modulation.

  18. Mobile work: Ergonomics in a rapidly changing work environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honan, Meg

    2015-01-01

    Places of work have been completely transformed by innovations in mobile work tools and ever-present access to internet data. This article characterizes use patterns and provides preliminary considerations for productive and comfortable use of common mobile devices. Two surveys described trends in mobile work. In the first, ergonomics professionals who oversee programs reported common mobile devices, their users and what data is accessed. The second, an end user survey, explored common activities performed on mobile devices, duration of use and locations where mobile work is common. The survey results provide a baseline data point for the status of mobile work in early 2014. Research indicates that additional risks have been introduced to the neck, thumbs and hands when using mobile devices. Possible trends regarding device use and work locations emerge. Intervention studies provide some direction for the practitioner. Practical strategies are outlined to reduce exposure intensity and duration. Contemporary mobile work presents tremendous change and opportunity for ergonomists and researchers to keep pace with fitting the changing models of work to the person. Continued research is needed on current mobile device use patterns to better understand ergonomic risk exposure in this rapidly changing realm.

  19. Environmental Disaster and Economic Change: Do tropical cyclones have permanent effects on economic growth and structure?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jina, A.; von der Goltz, J.; Hsiang, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    Natural disasters have important, often devastating, effects upon economic growth and well-being. Due to this, disasters have become an active area of recent research and policy attention. However, much of this research has been narrowly focused, relying on anecdotal evidence and aggregated data to support conclusions about disaster impacts in the short-term. Employing a new global data set of tropical cyclone exposure from 1960 to 2008, we investigate in greater detail whether permanent changes in economic performance and structure can result from these extreme events in some cases. Our macro-economic analyses use the World Development Indicator dataset and have shown promising results: there are dramatic long-term economic transformations associated with tropical cyclones across a number of countries and industries. This effect is most clearly seen in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and some countries in Latin America, where negative changes in long-term growth trends are observed in the years following a large tropical cyclone. In many economies with a high exposure to tropical cyclone damage, there are noticeable structural changes within the economy. The impacts of disasters might be expressed through various economic and social channels, through direct loss of lives and infrastructure damage; for instance, the destruction of infrastructure such as ports may damage export opportunities where replacement capital is not readily available. These structural changes may have far-reaching implications for economic growth and welfare. Larger nations subjected to the impacts of tropical cyclones are thought to be able to relocate economically important activities that are damaged by cyclones, and so long-term trend changes are not observed, even for events that cause a large immediate decrease in national productivity. By investigating in a more rigorous fashion the hypothesis that the environment triggers these permanent economic changes, our work has

  20. Rapid and economical data acquisition in ultrafast frequency-resolved spectroscopy using choppers and a microcontroller.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Liang; Monahan, Daniele M; Fleming, Graham

    2016-08-08

    Spectrometers and cameras are used in ultrafast spectroscopy to achieve high resolution in both time and frequency domains. Frequency-resolved signals from the camera pixels cannot be processed by common lock-in amplifiers, which have only a limited number of input channels. Here we demonstrate a rapid and economical method that achieves the function of a lock-in amplifier using mechanical choppers and a programmable microcontroller. We demonstrate the method's effectiveness by performing a frequency-resolved pump-probe measurement on the dye Nile Blue in solution.

  1. Fertility in Alberta in a Context of Rapid Economic Growth, 1997-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Trovato

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Historically, birth rates in Alberta have followed closely the trajectory of change experienced by the other Canadian provinces. Its total fertility rate fell during the low point of the 1930s; it increased during the post-War baby boom in the 1950s and sixties, and thereafter fell to subreplacement levels beginning in the mid 1970s. In recent years, especially since the early 2000s, the birth rate in Alberta has unexpectedly increased, such that by 2007, it had reached 1.90 children per woman - not far from the 2.1 level needed for generational replacement in the long term. During this same period both national and provincial fertility rates fluctuated at levels below those of Alberta (except Saskatchewan and Manitoba, whose rates have been higher. In this study, I examine the historical pattern of fertility change in Alberta, noting similarities and differences with the other provinces. I then look at the association of selected macro level factors (marriage, unemployment, wages, female labour force participation with change in total and parity-specific birth rates between 1997 and 2007, a period of unprecedented economic growth in Alberta. The statistical results show that although marriage is not significantly correlated with change in fertility rates, male and female wages and female labour force participation all show associations consistent with a procyclical interpretation of fertility change - that is, periods of economic growth are conducive to fertility increase whereas bad economic times are associated with reduced fertility.

  2. Fertility in Alberta in a Context of Rapid Economic Growth, 1997-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Trovato

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Historically, birth rates in Alberta have followed closely the trajectory of change experienced by the other Canadian provinces. Its total fertility rate fell during the low point of the 1930s; it increased during the post-War baby boom in the 1950s and sixties, and thereafter fell to sub-replacement levels beginning in the mid 1970s. In recent years, especially since the early 2000s, the birth rate in Alberta has unexpectedly increased, such that by 2007, it had reached 1.90 children per woman---not far from the 2.1 level needed for generational replacement in the long term. During this same period both national and provincial fertility rates fluctuated at levels below those of Alberta (except Saskatchewan and Manitoba, whose rates have been higher. In this study, I examine the historical pattern of fertility change in Alberta, noting similarities and differences with the other provinces. I then look at the association of selected macro level factors (marriage, unemployment, wages, female labour force participation with change in total and parity-specific birth rates between 1997 and 2007, a period of unprecedented economic growth in Alberta. The statistical results show that although marriage is not significantly correlated with change in fertility rates, male and female wages and female labour force participation all show associations consistent with a procyclical interpretation of fertility change --- that is, periods of economic growth are conducive to fertility increase whereas bad economic times lead to reduced fertility.

  3. Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gambarelli, G.; Goria, A.

    2004-07-01

    The paper deals with the social and economic dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation in Italy. The ultimate aim of the paper is to provide policy makers and experts with a conceptual framework, as well as methodological and operational tools for dealing with climate change impacts and adaptation from an economic perspective. In order to do so, first a conceptual and theoretical framework of the economic assessment of climate change impacts is presented and the state of the art about impact assessment studies is briefly analysed. Then, the Italian case is taken into account, by underlying the main impacts and adaptation challenges that are likely to be implied by climate change in the next decades. The analysis of the Italian case is particularly addressed through the description of the methodology and results of two case studies. The first one, dealing mainly with impact assessment, is carried out at the national level and is part of a EC funded project on Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE). The second one is carried out at the local level and focuses on sea level rise impacts and adaptation in a plane south of Rome. The two case studies allow to propose simple and flexible methodologies for the economic impact assessment and the economic valuation of adaptation strategies

  4. Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ciscar, J.C.; Iglesias, A.; Feyen, L.; Szabo, L.; Regemorter, van D.; Amelung, B.; Nicholls, R.; Watkiss, P.; Christensen, O.B.; Dankers, R.; Garrote, L.; Goodess, C.M.; Hunt, A.; Moreno, A.; Richards, J.; Soria, A.

    2011-01-01

    Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to

  5. Regional economic change in Europe: a neo-Schumpeterian vision

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hospers, Gerrit J.

    2004-01-01

    In this era of ongoing globalization a coherent vision on Europe's changing geo-economy is more important than ever before. Drawing on the work of Schumpeter, Fourastié and Perroux, the book at hand offers a new and policy-oriented perspective on regional economic change in Europe.Conceptually, it

  6. Economics and management of climate change: risks, mitigation and adaptation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Antes, Ralf

    2008-01-01

    ... climate change poses risks to societies and companies, nor about adequate strategies to cope with these risks. Bringing together scholars from environmental economics, political science, and business management, this book describes, analyses and evaluates climate change risks and responses of societies and companies. The book c...

  7. Altering plasma sodium concentration rapidly changes blood pressure during haemodialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suckling, Rebecca J; Swift, Pauline A; He, Feng J; Markandu, Nirmala D; MacGregor, Graham A

    2013-08-01

    Plasma sodium is increased following each meal containing salt. There is an increasing interest in the effects of plasma sodium concentration, and it has been suggested that it may have direct effects on blood pressure (BP) and possibly influences endothelial function. Experimental increases of plasma sodium concentration rapidly raise BP even when extracellular volume falls. Ten patients with end-stage renal failure established on haemodialysis were studied during the first 2 h of dialysis without fluid removal during this period. They were randomized to receive haemodialysis with (i) dialysate sodium concentration prescribed to 135 mmol/L and (ii) 145 mmol/L in random order in a prospective, single-blinded crossover study. BP measurements and blood samples were taken every 30 min. Pre-dialysis sitting BP was 137/76 ± 7/3 mmHg. Lower dialysate sodium concentration (135 mmol/L) reduced plasma sodium concentration [139.49 ± 0.67 to 135.94 ± 0.52 mmol/L (P area under the curve (AUC) 15823.50 ± 777.15 (mmHg)min] compared with 145 mmol/L [AUC 17018.20 ± 1102.17 (mmHg)min], mean difference 1194.70 ± 488.41 (mmHg)min, P < 0.05. There was a significant positive relationship between change in plasma sodium concentration and change in systolic BP. This direct relationship suggests that a fall of 1 mmol/L in plasma sodium concentration would be associated with a 1.7 mmHg reduction in systolic BP (P < 0.05). The potential mechanism for the increase in BP seen with salt intake may be through small but significant changes in plasma sodium concentration.

  8. The economics of climate change - the Stern review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stern, N. Sir

    2007-01-15

    This review was announced by the Chancellor of the Exchequer in July 2005. It was undertaken by Sir Nicholas Stern, Head of the Government Economic Service and Adviser to the Government on the economics of climatic change and development. Having analysed a wide range of evidence on the impact of climate change, the aim of the review was to assess the economics of a low-carbon global economy; the long-term perspective; timescale for action; the choice of policies and institutions and specific lessons for the UK, in the context of its existing climate change goals. Using the results from formal economic models, the review estimates that if we don't act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account the estimates of damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more. The first half of the review considers how the evidence on the economic impact of climate, costs and benefits of action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions relates to the conceptual framework described. It covers climate change, including chapters on the science of climate change economics, ethics and discusses how climate change affects people worldwide, the implication of climate change for development, the costs of climate change in developed countries and economic modelling of climate change impacts. Other areas covered in this review include projecting the growth of greenhouse gas emissions, the cost of mitigation and macroeconomic modelling of costs. Adaptation to climate change is of the utmost importance, and whilst it is no longer possible to prevent the climate change that will take place over the next two to three decades it is still possible to protect our societies and economies from its impacts in the future. Promoting international cooperation, the role of adaptation in sustainable development and creating a global price for carbon are also discussed in this review. An

  9. The economic case for low-carbon development in rapidly growing developing world cities: A case study of Palembang, Indonesia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colenbrander, Sarah; Gouldson, Andy; Sudmant, Andrew Heshedahl; Papargyropoulou, Effie

    2015-01-01

    Where costs or risks are higher, evidence is lacking or supporting institutions are less developed, policymakers can struggle to make the case for low-carbon investment. This is especially the case in developing world cities where decision-makers struggle to keep up with the pace and scale of change. Focusing on Palembang in Indonesia, this paper considers the economic case for proactive investment in low-carbon development. We find that a rapidly growing industrial city in a developing country can reduce emissions by 24.1% in 2025, relative to business as usual levels, with investments of USD405.6 million that would reduce energy expenditure in the city by USD436.8 million. Emissions from the regional grid could be reduced by 12.2% in 2025, relative to business as usual trends, with investments of USD2.9 billion that would generate annual savings of USD175 million. These estimates understate the savings from reduced expenditure on energy subsidies and energy infrastructure. The compelling economic case for mainstreaming climate mitigation in this developing country city suggests that the constraints on climate action can be political and institutional rather than economic. There is therefore a need for more effective energy governance to drive the transition to a low-carbon economy. - Highlights: • We evaluate the economic case for low carbon investment in a developing world city. • Cost-effective measures could reduce emissions by 24.1% relative to BAU levels. • These pay for themselves in <1 year and generate savings throughout their lifetime. • Further savings come from reduced expenditure on energy infrastructure, subsidies. • Limitations on climate action seem to be political/institutional – not economic

  10. Economic Development, Inequality and Climate Change in Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Dang, Vinh; Do, Trang; Nguyen, Cuong; Phung, Thu; Phung, Tung

    2013-01-01

    From 2011 till 2013, Vietnam has been experiencing an economic slowdown and macroeconomic problems such as high inflation, bad debt from commercial banks and the inefficient operation of state-owned companies. The poverty reduction rate has slowed down and poverty incidence in remote and mountainous areas remains high. Inequality in income and socio-economic development between different geographic and ethnic groups is still significant. Climate changes such as escalating frequency of extreme...

  11. ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF MASS-MEDIA AND THE CHANGES GENERATED BY THE ECONOMIC CRISIS

    OpenAIRE

    TRAIAN ALEXANDRU NASTASE

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we intend to describe the economic implications of mass-media in correlation with the recent socio-economic changes generated by the economic crisis. We take into consideration the dual market on which mass-media evolves: the mass-media products market, and the advertising market, keeping in mind that the behavior of a mass-media institution on one market, can have direct implication on the other market. We analyze the relation between mass-media and the public (audience), the c...

  12. Planetary Habitability and Rapid Environmental Change: The Biological Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulze-Makuch, D.; Fairen, A.; Irwin, L.

    2012-12-01

    Environmental conditions can change drastically and rapidly during the natural history of a planetary body. We have detailed evidence of these dramatic events from Venus, Earth, Mars, and Titan. Most of these occurrences seem to be triggered by astronomical events such as asteroid impacts or supernova explosions; others are triggered by the planet or moon itself (e.g., supervolcano eruptions). The associated question is always how these events affect the habitability of a planet, particularly the origin and presence of life. Under what conditions would such a drastic event be so catastrophic that it would prohibit the origin of life or be so devastating to existing organisms, that life would not be able to recover and be all but extinguished from a planet? Under what conditions would such an event be positive for the evolution of life, for example spurring life via mass extinctions and associated vacant habitats to the invention of new body plans and higher complexity? Here, we provide insights of what we can learn from the natural history of our own planet, which experienced many environmental disasters and abrupt climate changes, from the impact event that created the Moon to the extinction of the dinosaurs. We apply these insights to other planetary bodies and the question about the presence of life. One example is Mars, which underwent drastic environmental changes at the end of the Noachian period. Assuming that microbial life became established on Mars, could it have survived, perhaps by retreating to environmental niches? Life just starting out would have certainly been more vulnerable to extinction. But how far would it have to have evolved to be more resistant to potential extinction events? Would it have to be global in distribution to survive? Another example is Venus. Should Venus be seen as an example where life, which possibly arose in the first few hundred million years when the planet was still in the habitable zone, would have had no chance to

  13. Changes in VAT rates during the economic crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Široký

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available To solve the current economical crisis, there are used various tools of economic policy. Some of them are changes in taxes, particularly changes in the value added tax due to its importance.Value added tax is the most harmonized tax in the single internal market of the European Communities. Although community law defines the basic legal constraints of VAT rules in individual countries, the Council Directive 2006/112/EC on the common system of value added tax, as amended, leaves some areas open for the Member States. One of the main characteristics of VAT is its tax rates which are – while maintaining specified minimal borders – in competency of Member States.Paper illustrates and evaluates the changes in tax rates of individual Member States during the economic crisis and points to their context and consequences.

  14. Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

  15. Climate change. Socio-economic impacts and violent conflict

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Ierland, E.C.; Klaassen, M.G.; Nierop, T.; Van der Wusten, H.

    1996-01-01

    The results of a literature study on the socio-economic impacts of climate change and the possibilities of violent conflicts enhanced by the greenhouse effect are presented. The socio-economic impacts are classified according to the economic sectors agriculture, forestry, fishery, energy, water, construction, transport, tourism and recreation and discussed in Chapter 2. The impacts on property, ecosystems and human well being are outlined in chapter 3. Chapter 4 deals with climate change and environmental security, and discusses the most important concepts of security and their relation to climate change. Chapter 5 deals with already existing and potential conflicts, that may be enhanced by the greenhouse effect as a result of resource scarcity, particularly related to availability of food and water. On the basis of the literature study and an analysis of research gaps propositions are made on new areas of research to be undertaken. The study emphasizes the need to further study the impact on agriculture in semi-arid zones, the impact on water availability in sensitive regions, a further analysis of the consequences of sea level rise particularly in sensitive areas and with regard to forced migration. Also further studies are required into the socio-economic impacts of changes in human health and mortality due to climate change, in relation to diseases. Special attention should be paid to migration because of environmental degradation and flooding. Extreme weather events have already been studied, but there still is a need for further insights into how extreme weather events will affect society, taking into account adaptive behaviour. Finally, in the area of socio-economic impacts, the implications of changes in ecosystems and biodiversity require further attention as these effects may be large but, at the same time, difficult to assess in economic terms. 175 refs

  16. ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF MASS-MEDIA AND THE CHANGES GENERATED BY THE ECONOMIC CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TRAIAN ALEXANDRU NASTASE

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we intend to describe the economic implications of mass-media in correlation with the recent socio-economic changes generated by the economic crisis. We take into consideration the dual market on which mass-media evolves: the mass-media products market, and the advertising market, keeping in mind that the behavior of a mass-media institution on one market, can have direct implication on the other market. We analyze the relation between mass-media and the public (audience, the cost for creating mass-media products, the ways in which mass-media reduces costs and the ways of increasing their profits. As mass-media must always adapt to the social changes and to the public, we take our analysis further and we describe how the recent economic changes influenced the mass-media consumption trends and mass-media profits on all the main communication channels: TV, radio, outdoor, internet, newspapers/magazines. This analysis is performed at both a global and a local level, for Romania. In the end we predict how other key changes may affect the economic model approach of the mass-media institutions on short and middle terms.

  17. Integrating scientific, economic, and ecological aspects of global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacoby, H.D.; Yang, Z.

    1994-01-01

    The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is conducting research on methods for integrating the science of potential global change with economic analysis of litigation policies and quantification of economic and environmental impacts. The paper describes this work, with a focus on the way that research within the various contributing disciplines, and the design of their associated models, are influenced by the process of inclusion in an integrated framework for policy analysis. The results should contribute new insight into the relative importance of key feedbacks within the economy-climate-ecology system

  18. The economics of optimal adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Callaway, J.M.; Ringius, L.

    2002-07-01

    This paper has set out to provide a consistent theoretical framework for understanding how consumers, producers and factor agents respond to the impacts of climate change, with a primary focus on the production and consumption of, and investment in, market goods and services under competitive conditions. However, we have also pointed out that this theory can be extended to economies where individuals and groups pursue other well-defined objectives, and we have provided some examples that show the consistency in adaptation behaviour between economic terms and those who maximise the objective of household nutrition. We have defined adaptation as the changes that economic agents make in the allocation of resources to consumption, production and investment to offset the effects of weather variability or climate change on their welfare. This definition is broad enough to encompass almost every conceivable kind of adaptation behaviour. Further, we have followed the distinction between adaptation that is autonomous and adaptation actions that are undertaken by governments in the form of adaptation strategies. Autonomous adaptation is adaptation that economic agents will undertake to change, without the assistance of government, to improve their welfare due to incentives that are built into the political economy of a country. Adaptation strategies involve conscious decisions by governments to undertake actions and implement projects to avoid (or benefit from) weather variability and climate change. We show how the extent to which economic activities are adapted to existing climate variability will affect how much autonomous adaptation will need to occur once the pure effect of climate change is taken into account. In this paper we argue that the ability of economic activities to adapt once the pure effect of climate change can be accounted for by the following factors: Presence of well-developed markets for inputs and outputs; Ability and competitiveness to produce

  19. A rapid and economic in-house DNA purification method using glass syringe filters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun-Cheol Kim

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Purity, yield, speed and cost are important considerations in plasmid purification, but it is difficult to achieve all of these at the same time. Currently, there are many protocols and kits for DNA purification, however none maximize all four considerations. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We now describe a fast, efficient and economic in-house protocol for plasmid preparation using glass syringe filters. Plasmid yield and quality as determined by enzyme digestion and transfection efficiency were equivalent to the expensive commercial kits. Importantly, the time required for purification was much less than that required using a commercial kit. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This method provides DNA yield and quality similar to that obtained with commercial kits, but is more rapid and less costly.

  20. On Rural Financial and Accounting Work under the Background of Rapid Agricultural Economic Development

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yaozheng; TANG

    2013-01-01

    Under the background of rapid agricultural economic development,rural financial and accounting work is of great significance. From rural accounting management system,rural accountant allocation and rural accounting training,this paper analyzes current situations of rural accounting work in China. In rural financial and accounting work,there are following problems. ( 1) Accounting behavior is not standard,and basic accounting work is to be further strengthened; ( 2) Internal control is not perfect and implementation of supervision mechanism is formalized; ( 3) Few people manipulate accounting behavior and accounting information is not transparent. In view of these problems,it puts forward countermeasures for improving rural accounting work: ( 1) establishing perfect agricultural accounting system; ( 2) regulating fund management order; ( 3) promoting computerized agricultural financial and accounting work; ( 4) improving professional and comprehensive quality of rural accountants.

  1. Innovation in regulation of rapidly changing health markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloom, Gerald; Henson, Spencer; Peters, David H

    2014-06-24

    The rapid evolution and spread of health markets across low and middle-income countries (LMICs) has contributed to a significant increase in the availability of health-related goods and services around the world. The support institutions needed to regulate these markets have lagged behind, with regulatory systems that are weak and under-resourced. This paper explores the key issues associated with regulation of health markets in LMICs, and the different goals of regulation, namely quality and safety of care, value for money, social agreement over fair access and financing, and accountability. Licensing, price controls, and other traditional approaches to the regulation of markets for health products and services have played an important role, but they have been of questionable effectiveness in ensuring safety and efficacy at the point of the user in LMICs. The paper proposes a health market systems conceptual framework, using the value chain for the production, distribution and retail of health goods and services, to examine regulation of health markets in the LMIC context. We conclude by exploring the changing context going forwards, laying out implications for future heath market regulation. We argue that the case for new approaches to the regulation of markets for health products and services in LMICs is compelling. Although traditional "command and control" approaches will have a place in the toolkit of regulators, a broader bundle of approaches is needed that is adapted to the national and market-level context of particular LMICs. The implication is that it is not possible to apply standard or single interventions across countries, as approaches proven to work well in one context will not necessarily work well elsewhere.

  2. Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palley, Paul D; Parcero, Miriam E

    2016-10-01

    A review of literature in the calendar year 2015 dedicated to environmental policies and sustainable development, and economic policies. This review is divided into these sections: sustainable development, irrigation, ecosystems and water management, climate change and disaster risk management, economic growth, water supply policies, water consumption, water price regulation, and water price valuation.

  3. Socio-economic data for global environmental change research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Otto, Ilona; Biewald, Anne; Coumou, Dim

    2015-01-01

    Subnational socio-economic datasets are required if we are to assess the impacts of global environmental changes and to improve adaptation responses. Institutional and community efforts should concentrate on standardization of data collection methodologies, free public access, and geo-referencing....

  4. Emotional responses to behavioral economic incentives for health behavior change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Swaluw, Koen; Lambooij, Mattijs S.; Mathijssen, Jolanda J.P.; Zeelenberg, Marcel; Polder, Johan J.; Prast, Henriëtte M.

    2018-01-01

    Many people aim to change their lifestyle, but have trouble acting on their intentions. Behavioral economic incentives and related emotions can support commitment to personal health goals, but the related emotions remain unexplored. In a regret lottery, winners who do not attain their health goals

  5. Emotional Responses to Behavioral Economic Incentives for Health Behavior Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Swaluw, Koen; Lambooij, Mattijs S; Mathijssen, Jolanda; Zeelenberg, Marcel; Polder, Johan; Prast, Henriette

    2018-01-01

    Many people aim to change their lifestyle, but have trouble acting on their intentions. Behavioral economic incentives and related emotions can support commitment to personal health goals, but the related emotions remain unexplored. In a regret lottery, winners who do not attain their health goals

  6. The Economics and Ethics of Human Induced Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Spash, Clive L.; Gattringer, Clemens

    2016-01-01

    Human induced climate change poses a series of ethical challenges to the current political economy, although it has often be regarded by economists as only an ethical issue for those concerned about future generations. The central debate in economics has then concerned the rate at which future costs and benefits should be discounted. Indeed the full range of ethical aspects of climate change are rarely even discussed. Despite recent high profile and lengthy academic papers on t...

  7. Prevention and Control of Cardiovascular Disease in the Rapidly Changing Economy of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yangfeng; Benjamin, Emelia J; MacMahon, Stephen

    2016-06-14

    With one-fifth of the world's total population, China's prevention and control of cardiovascular disease (CVD) may affect the success of worldwide efforts to achieve sustainable CVD reduction. Understanding China's current cardiovascular epidemic requires awareness of the economic development in the past decades. The rapid economic transformations (industrialization, marketization, urbanization, globalization, and informationalization) contributed to the aging demography, unhealthy lifestyles, and environmental changes. The latter have predisposed to increasing cardiovascular risk factors and the CVD pandemic. Rising CVD rates have had a major economic impact, which has challenged the healthcare system and the whole society. With recognition of the importance of health, initial political steps and national actions have been taken to address the CVD epidemic. Looking to the future, we recommend that 4 priorities should be taken: pursue multisectorial government and nongovernment strategies targeting the underlying causes of CVD (the whole-of-government and whole-of-society policy); give priority to prevention; reform the healthcare system to fit the nature of noncommunicable diseases; and conduct research for evidence-based, low-cost, simple, sustainable, and scalable interventions. By pursuing the 4 priorities, the pandemic of CVD and other major noncommunicable diseases in China will be reversed and the global sustainable development goal achieved. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  8. Economic development and coastal ecosystem change in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Qiang; Bertness, Mark D.; Bruno, John F.; Li, Bo; Chen, Guoqian; Coverdale, Tyler C.; Altieri, Andrew H.; Bai, Junhong; Sun, Tao; Pennings, Steven C.; Liu, Jianguo; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Cui, Baoshan

    2014-01-01

    Despite their value, coastal ecosystems are globally threatened by anthropogenic impacts, yet how these impacts are driven by economic development is not well understood. We compiled a multifaceted dataset to quantify coastal trends and examine the role of economic growth in China's coastal degradation since the 1950s. Although China's coastal population growth did not change following the 1978 economic reforms, its coastal economy increased by orders of magnitude. All 15 coastal human impacts examined increased over time, especially after the reforms. Econometric analysis revealed positive relationships between most impacts and GDP across temporal and spatial scales, often lacking dropping thresholds. These relationships generally held when influences of population growth were addressed by analyzing per capita impacts, and when population density was included as explanatory variables. Historical trends in physical and biotic indicators showed that China's coastal ecosystems changed little or slowly between the 1950s and 1978, but have degraded at accelerated rates since 1978. Thus economic growth has been the cause of accelerating human damage to China's coastal ecosystems. China's GDP per capita remains very low. Without strict conservation efforts, continuing economic growth will further degrade China's coastal ecosystems. PMID:25104138

  9. Economic development and coastal ecosystem change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Qiang; Bertness, Mark D; Bruno, John F; Li, Bo; Chen, Guoqian; Coverdale, Tyler C; Altieri, Andrew H; Bai, Junhong; Sun, Tao; Pennings, Steven C; Liu, Jianguo; Ehrlich, Paul R; Cui, Baoshan

    2014-08-08

    Despite their value, coastal ecosystems are globally threatened by anthropogenic impacts, yet how these impacts are driven by economic development is not well understood. We compiled a multifaceted dataset to quantify coastal trends and examine the role of economic growth in China's coastal degradation since the 1950s. Although China's coastal population growth did not change following the 1978 economic reforms, its coastal economy increased by orders of magnitude. All 15 coastal human impacts examined increased over time, especially after the reforms. Econometric analysis revealed positive relationships between most impacts and GDP across temporal and spatial scales, often lacking dropping thresholds. These relationships generally held when influences of population growth were addressed by analyzing per capita impacts, and when population density was included as explanatory variables. Historical trends in physical and biotic indicators showed that China's coastal ecosystems changed little or slowly between the 1950s and 1978, but have degraded at accelerated rates since 1978. Thus economic growth has been the cause of accelerating human damage to China's coastal ecosystems. China's GDP per capita remains very low. Without strict conservation efforts, continuing economic growth will further degrade China's coastal ecosystems.

  10. Women in Physics in a Rapidly Changing China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ling-An

    2008-03-01

    Despite the upheavals of the 20th century, physics managed to survive quite well in China, where the first woman president of the American Physical Society was born and bred. During the 1950s as a result of policies that emphasized science and engineering, declared equal rights and equal pay for men and women, and assigned jobs to college graduates irrespective of sex, the number of women in physics increased rapidly, many of whom made notable achievements. Since China's opening up over the last thirty years tremendous changes have taken place, and women now face new opportunities as well as challenges in all aspects of society. Whereas physics used to be regarded as the most elite of the sciences, new fields such as computer science, biotechnology and business are now competing for the best students. Compared with other countries the statistics are not bad; in schools and many physics departments the ratio of women teachers may be 30% or higher, but the numbers drop drastically with rank. Moreover, in some research institutions the ratio of female physicists is actually declining, due to retirement of the older generation and fewer successors. Compulsory retirement for women at an earlier age than for men is also a new factor. Conversely, in recent years the ratio of female graduate students enrolling in physics has increased, even reaching 40% in some universities. However, the reasons for this do not bode well: men are not performing so well as women in entrance exams, while the latter are facing increasing discrimination in employment so they have to seek higher degree qualifications. With the further development of China's economy there will be abundant demand for qualified personnel including women with a physics background. It is imperative to actively support the upcoming generation of women physicists and not lose them in the leaky pipeline. The Chinese Physical Society has taken certain positive steps, such as the recent establishment of the Xie Xi

  11. Quantitative stability, qualitative change? Changing socio-economic status and value perceptions of Danish volunteers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Morten; Henriksen, Lars Skov; Qvist, Hans-Peter

    2013-01-01

    Changes in both socio-economic and cultural structures of societies are often assumed to have an impact on volunteering. Changing living conditions and changing values can affect both the level and the nature of volunteering. Most Western societies have over the last 30 years or more experienced...... changes in economic conditions, educational levels, and labor markets at the same time as cultural changes have taken place in relation to processes of individualization and reflexivity. Based on empirical data the aim of this paper is to investigate whether and to what extent changes in the structural...

  12. How New Economic Ideas Changed the Danish Welfare State

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Christian Albrekt; Andersen, Jørgen Goul

    2009-01-01

    of the independent causal effects of economic ideas because the Social Democrats pursued policies that compromised with the party's historically rooted positions and with the preferences of their electorate. Ideas and solutions did not come in one fixed package, however. But the new paradigm established some basic......The article argues that new economic ideas have exerted an independent causal effect on policy change in three major areas in the Danish welfare state; unemployment insurance, early retirement and taxation. Thereby the Danish case bears resemblance to the paradigmatic shift from Keynesianism...

  13. The economics of climate change and the theory of discounting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Philibert, C.

    1999-01-01

    This paper confronts the theory of discounting with climate change economics. Standard discounting would give long-term damages a very low present value. On the other hand, low discount rates would imply more sacrifices for present generations, although future generations may be richer. And using multiple rates would lead to economic inefficiencies. The paper first shows that arguments favouring a low or zero discount rate in general are weak, even from an ethical point of view. It goes on by considering different arguments in favour of discount rates decreasing over time, and by recalling the argument that non-reproducible environmental assets should be given a value growing over time. Through the example of climate change, it finally shows that the latter argument not only implies that the costs of damages associated to climate change should not be underestimated, but also reinforce the legitimacy of using decreasing discount rates. (author)

  14. Rapid socio-cultural change and health in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, P

    2001-01-01

    The colonization of the circumpolar peoples has had a profound influence on their health. History tells about devastating epidemics and the introduction of alcohol. The last 50 years have witnessed an unprecedented societal development in Greenland and a rapid epidemiological transition. Physical...... health and survival have improved but at the expense of mental health. The incidence of tuberculosis and the infant mortality rate have decreased because of improved socioeconomic conditions and health care. Mental health has deteriorated parallel to the rapid modernization of Greenlandic society...

  15. Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciscar, Juan-Carlos; Iglesias, Ana; Feyen, Luc; Szabó, László; Van Regemorter, Denise; Amelung, Bas; Nicholls, Robert; Watkiss, Paul; Christensen, Ole B; Dankers, Rutger; Garrote, Luis; Goodess, Clare M; Hunt, Alistair; Moreno, Alvaro; Richards, Julie; Soria, Antonio

    2011-02-15

    Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to design and prioritize adaptation strategies. New developments in regional climate modeling and physical-impact modeling in Europe allow a better exploration of those dimensions. This article quantifies the potential consequences of climate change in Europe in four market impact categories (agriculture, river floods, coastal areas, and tourism) and one nonmarket impact (human health). The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modeling framework. We find that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union (EU) resulting from the four market impacts would range between 0.2-1%. If the welfare loss is assumed to be constant over time, climate change may halve the EU's annual welfare growth. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and a higher rise in sea level result in more severe economic damage. However, the results show that there are large variations across European regions. Southern Europe, the British Isles, and Central Europe North appear most sensitive to climate change. Northern Europe, on the other hand, is the only region with net economic benefits, driven mainly by the positive effects on agriculture. Coastal systems, agriculture, and river flooding are the most important of the four market impacts assessed.

  16. Tracking and unpacking rapid Arctic change: Indicators of community health and sustainability in northern Alaska and links to cryospheric change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eicken, H.; Sam, J. M.; Mueller-stoffels, M.; Lovecraft, A. L.; Fresco, N. L.

    2017-12-01

    Tracking and responding to rapid Arctic change benefits from time series of indicator variables that describe the state of the system and can inform anticipatory action. A key challenge is to identify and monitor sets of indicators that capture relevant variability, trends, and transitions in social-environmental systems. We present findings from participatory scenarios focused on community health and sustainability in northern Alaska. In a series of workshops in 2015 and 2016 (Kotzebue workshop photo shown below), over 50 experts, mostly local, identified determinants of community health and sustainability by 2040 in the Northwest Arctic and North Slope Boroughs, Alaska. Drawing on further research, an initial set of factors and uncertainties was refined and prioritized into a total of 20 key drivers, ranging from governance issues to socio-economic and environmental factors. The research team then developed sets of future projections that describe plausible outcomes by mid-century for each of these drivers. A plausibility and consistency analysis of all pairwise combinations of these projections (following Mueller-Stoffels and Eicken, In: North by 2020 - Perspectives on Alaska's Changing Social-Ecological Systems, University of Alaska Press, 2011) resulted in the identification of robust scenarios. The latter were further reviewed by workshop participants, and a set of indicator variables, including indicators of relevant cryospheric change, was identified to help track trajectories towards plausible future states. Publically accessible recorded data only exist for a subset of the more than 70 indicators, reaching back a few years to several decades. For several indicators, the sampling rate or time series length are insufficient for tracking of and response to change. A core set of variables has been identified that meets indicator requirements and can serve as a tool for Alaska Arctic communities in adapting to or mitigating rapid change affecting community

  17. Protection of continued economic existence and major changes. 1. paper

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Backherms, J.

    1980-01-01

    On the issue of protecting continued economic existence according to Sect. 18 of the Atomic Energy Law, a difference is made between changes occurring in the environment of the plant, in the existing knowledge in science and technology, and changes occurring in the safety philosophy held by the authorities. In case of conditions being subsequently imposed because of a change in the existing knowledge in science and technology, the liability of the authorities to pay compensation is ruled out according to Sect. 18, para. 2 No. 3 of the Atomic Energy Law. The difference made between a change in the safety philosophy held by the authorities and a change in the existing knowledge in science and technology seems to be obvious. In the first case it is a matter of changing the legal evaluation of unchanged technological findings, in the legal evaluation, however, the licence granted has to have a lasting effect on principle. (HP) [de

  18. A big data management platform for rapidly changing environments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zahedi, P.

    2014-01-01

    Big data is now a reality. Storing, managing, and analyzing very large amount of data is a common challenge in the world of technology where digital content is rapidly growing. In recent years, FEI advanced electron microscopes, with their unsurpassed magnification and resolving power brought an

  19. Teaching for Global Competence in a Rapidly Changing World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colvin, Richard Lee; Edwards, Virginia

    2018-01-01

    This new publication sets forward the PISA framework for global competence developed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which aligns closely with the definition developed by the Center for Global Education at Asia Society. Based on the Center's extensive experience supporting educators in integrating global…

  20. Economic impacts of climate change in the U.S

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neumann, J.

    1997-01-01

    Results of a long-term research project funded by EPRI to study the economic impacts of climate change in the U.S. were described. In 1992, Industrial Economics Inc., began an assessment of the impact of climate change in key natural resource sectors. A wide range of uniform climate scenarios were used to assess sensitivity across different temperature and precipitation gradients. Estimates were developed for the 2060 economy, using dynamic models to understand what was happening along the transient. It was projected that the greatest impact of climate change would be on the agricultural sector because of projected gains in productivity, mainly due to increased precipitation. Similar scenarios were developed for the economic impact of climate change on timber and coastal structures, including the loss of value of coastal property. Key limitations of the study, and future directions in research (e.g. extending the study to health and non-market impacts, including other developed and developing countries) were also outlined

  1. Climate changes, raw materials shortage, and economic development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joest, F.

    1994-01-01

    The possibility of a climate change being brought about by our national economies has dominated the national and international ecopolitical discussion of the past few years like no other topic. The present study is an attempt at an as comprehensive an examination as possible of this problem. It works from the assumption that examining and solving environmental problems requires the cooperation and creativity of investigators from different disciplines. It accordingly develops a concept permitting an integration of scientific, economic, and ethical questions impinging on the problem of the greenhouse effect. Thus the study contributes to the groundwork of an ecological economics. The interdisciplinary approach to analysing the connections between climate changes, raw materials consumption, and economic development is variously seen to pinpoint the complex temporal structure of the problems. It becomes clear that ecopolitical measures take a long time to actually become effective. Besides shifiting the focus to questions as to the scope and limits of politico-economic action, the temporal strucutre of the problem also reveals the limitations of scientifically founded ecopolitical recommendations. This brings the ethical aspect of analysing and solving environmental problems to the fore. (orig./UA) [de

  2. Local economic impacts associated with pure taxable capacity changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjornstad, D.J.

    1982-01-01

    A fiscal-impact model based on the introduction of a nuclear power plant demonstrates the need to integrate local public-sector impacts with local private-sector impacts when estimating the economic changes a community undergoes in response to a significant exogenous shock. A nuclear plant differs from other electrical generating facilities because siting regulations require locating in a low-population density area where the influence on the community will be substantial. These characteristics approximate the pure fiscal capacity change or pure tax revenue importation concept. Four sections of the paper describe local decision making on taxes, identify the parameters that may shape local impact, analyze indifference curves as they integrate with the local macroeconomic model, and compare data for two communities in which both private and public local economic sectors show stimulation. 12 references, 1 figure

  3. Russian science trapped in web of rapid change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Josephson, P.R.

    1995-01-01

    During the Cold War, Soviet physicists were revered for their contribution to the country's prestige, economic growth, and national security, says Paul Josephson, a professor in the Department of Science, Technology, and Society at Sarah Lawrence College in Bronxville, New York. But the lavish support the Russian physics establishment once received is gone. In fact, the dissolution of the Soviet regime and deepening economic and political crisis have left scientists struggling to maintain their programs and keep institutes open. Internal crisis and the internationalization of science and technology have led to a drain of top Russian scientists in many fields, particularly in mathematics and theoretical physics. The West has responded to these concerns by giving financial aid and sponsoring initiatives designed to keep former Soviet scientists employed either at home or in the United States or Europe. However, the ultimate health of Russian science will depend on internal government reforms and public support, concludes Josephson

  4. Welfare Evaluation and the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This research will aim to study from an interdisciplinary perspective the economic and social impact of changes in water availability and quality due to climate ... Dans le cadre de ce projet, on étudiera les efforts déployés par le secteur privé pour améliorer la conformité aux lois contre la corruption en Amérique latine.

  5. Measuring Changes in the Economics of Medical Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, Christopher; Rich, Eugene; DesRoches, Catherine; Reschovsky, James; Kogan, Rachel

    2015-08-01

    For the latter third of the twentieth century, researchers have estimated production and cost functions for physician practices. Today, those attempting to measure the inputs and outputs of physician practice must account for many recent changes in models of care delivery. In this paper, we review practice inputs and outputs as typically described in research on the economics of medical practice, and consider the implications of the changing organization of medical practice and nature of physician work. This evolving environment has created conceptual challenges in what are the appropriate measures of output from physician work, as well as what inputs should be measured. Likewise, the increasing complexity of physician practice organizations has introduced challenges to finding the appropriate data sources for measuring these constructs. Both these conceptual and data challenges pose measurement issues that must be overcome to study the economics of modern medical practice. Despite these challenges, there are several promising initiatives involving data sharing at the organizational level that could provide a starting point for developing the needed new data sources and metrics for physician inputs and outputs. However, additional efforts will be required to establish data collection approaches and measurements applicable to smaller and single specialty practices. Overcoming these measurement and data challenges will be key to supporting policy-relevant research on the changing economics of medical practice.

  6. Climate change loss and damage. Economic and legal foundations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinninti, Krishna Rao

    2014-01-01

    This text works to establish essential foundations and guidelines in the current process of providing strategies, mechanisms and resources for mitigating loss and damage from the adverse impacts of climate change and climate variability. This builds on the groundwork done by the UNFCCC and other entities to facilitate the processes at the international level, pursuing a pragmatic approach and the objective specification of relevant frameworks for further actions. The primary goal is the development of integrated approaches to the assessment and reduction of loss and damage due to climate change (including climate variability), encompassing both economic and legal dimensions.

  7. Climate change loss and damage. Economic and legal foundations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinninti, Krishna Rao

    2014-04-01

    This text works to establish essential foundations and guidelines in the current process of providing strategies, mechanisms and resources for mitigating loss and damage from the adverse impacts of climate change and climate variability. This builds on the groundwork done by the UNFCCC and other entities to facilitate the processes at the international level, pursuing a pragmatic approach and the objective specification of relevant frameworks for further actions. The primary goal is the development of integrated approaches to the assessment and reduction of loss and damage due to climate change (including climate variability), encompassing both economic and legal dimensions.

  8. The new socio-economic scenarios for climate change research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guivarch, C.; Rozenberg, J.

    2013-01-01

    The scientific community is developing a new generation of scenarios to inform the choices we have to make when it comes to responding to climate change. This new generation of scenarios integrates more fully the mechanisms that regulate climate and provides insights to spatial and temporal resolutions unexplored in previous exercises. In addition, it gives a framework for integrating explicit climate policies for mitigation and adaptation, which allows assessing the benefits and costs of climate policies in different socio-economic scenarios. Finally, it introduces a new way of working that strengthens the collaboration between different research communities on climate change. (authors)

  9. SOCIAL INEQUALITY IN CHINA AS A RESULT OF THE RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Вероника Игоревна Шехурдина

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the period of openness in China, laid the foundation for more than 30 years ago, he has made remarkable progress in increasing incomes and reducing absolute poverty. However, they are caused by rising inequality. It should be noted that the rise in inequality was seen almost everywhere in the world over the past two decades. Growing dissatisfaction with the quality of economic growth is often seen in favor of certain groups more than the general population. This is clearly reflected in the growth of inequality between different groups - the rich are getting richer faster than the poor. The economic literature attributes this mainly to globalization, technological change, skills-based, and reduce the "power" of the workers. Growth model, which accompanies the last three decades to China, included a trade-off between high growth (and subsequent reduction of absolute poverty and worsening inequality. The government of China has recognized this problem and taken active steps to reduce the gap incomes and standards of living in the city and rural areas, which have already brought the first results.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-10-16

  10. Rapid deuterium exchange-in time for probing conformational change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dharmasiri, K.; Smith, D.L.

    1995-01-01

    Isotopic exchange of protein backbone amide hydrogens has been used extensively as a sensitive probe of protein structure. One of the salient features of hydrogen exchange is the vast range of exchange rates in one protein. Isotopic exchange methods have been used to study the structural features including protein folding and unfolding (1), functionally different forms of proteins (2), protein-protein complexation (3), and protein stability parameter. Many backbone amide protons that are surface accessible and are not involved in hydrogen bonding undergo rapid deuterium exchange. In order to study, fast exchanging amide protons, fast exchange-in times are necessary

  11. Climate Change and Bangladesh: Geographical and Socio-economic Impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farjana Jahan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change, the effects of greenhouse effect and global warming, is out to alter the global map with its devouring prospects of sending a number of countries under the waves. Unfortunately yet unavoidably, Bangladesh stands at the forefront of climate forays. Its land, water and weather are being severely affected by undesirable climatic changes. Alarmingly, the dangers are to be intensified unless the trend is reversed. However, local initiative will hardly be enough to offset the grave concerns of unintended climatic changes in Bangladesh. The changes will also impact the socio-economic conditions of the country, putting the future of the nation on the line. Some ominous signs are already there for the concerned to respond with required amount of fervour. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/dsaj.v7i0.10439 Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology Vol. 7, 2013; 113-132

  12. Exploring aggregate economic damage functions due to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Patwardhan, A. [and others

    1994-12-31

    A number of issues need to be considered when developing aggregated economic damage functions due to climate change. These include: (i) identification of production processes vulnerable to climate change, (ii) an understanding of the mechanism of vulnerability, (iii) the rate of technological advance and diffusion (iv) the issue of detection of damages and availability of response options. In this paper we will explore the implications of these considerations with the aid of an illustrative model. The findings suggest that there is a significant upward bias in damage functions calculated without consideration of these issues. Furthermore, this systematic bias is larger as climate change increases. We believe the approach explored here is a more suitable model for adoption in future integrated assessments of climate change.

  13. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available

  14. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H. [eds.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

  15. Exploring aggregate economic damage functions due to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Patwardhan, A.

    1994-01-01

    A number of issues need to be considered when developing aggregated economic damage functions due to climate change. These include: (1) identification of production processes vulnerable to climate change, (2) an understanding of the mechanism of vulnerability, (3) the rate of technological advance and diffusion, (4) the issue of detection of damages and availability of response options. In this paper the authors will explore the implications of these considerations with the aid of an illustrative model. The findings suggest that there is a significant upward bias in damage functions calculated without consideration of these issues. Furthermore, this systematic bias is larger as climate change increases. The authors believe the approach explored here is a more suitable model for adoption in future integrated assessments of climate change

  16. Intergenerational aspects of government policy under changing demographic and economic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boskin, M J

    1987-07-01

    Changing demographic and economic conditions in the US require that attention be given to some of the intergenerational equity features of government policy. In particular, social insurance programs and public debt leave public liabilities to future generations. Taken in the aggregate, the effects of rapidly rising public debt and especially social insurance programs are transferring substantial amounts of resources from younger working generations to the expanding generation of retirees. The most crucial element in evaluating the desirability of intergenerational wealth distribution in the long run is the rate of economic growth. A society's monetary, fiscal, tax, and regulatory policies can be more or less conducive to the generation of capital formation, technical change, and economic growth. Policies that influence growth and interest rates will combine with the national deficit to determine how rapidly the debt grows or shrinks. Present accounting procedures are insufficient to provide quantitative answers to the question of what is the impact of a given program on the age-specific distributions of resources. It is important to reconsider the desirability and efficiency of intergenerational redistributions of wealth in the US. It is likely that current policies are not in line with the principles of efficiency, equity, target effectiveness, and cost effectiveness.

  17. Policy options to respond to rapid climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swart, R.J.; Marinova, N.A.; Bakker, S.; Tilburg, van X.

    2009-01-01

    Ongoing research on climate change indicates that we cannot rule out the possibility of extreme climatic changes, beyond current IPCC scenarios. The thinking about policy responses to address these risks is still in its infancy. This study explores the possibilities for responding to extreme

  18. [Dynamic changes of the relationships between economic growth and environmental pressure in Gansu Province: a structural decomposition analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zi-Long; Chen, Xing-Peng; Yang, Jing; Xue, Bing; Li, Yong-Jin

    2010-02-01

    Based on the ideology of macro environmental economics, a function of environmental pressure represented by pollutant emission was built, and the relative importance of the driving factors in the dynamic changes of the relationships between economic growth and environmental pressure in Gansu Province in 1990 - 2005 was analyzed by using structural decomposition analysis (SDA) model combining with 'refined Laspeyres' method. In the study period, the environmental pressure in the Province was mainly caused by the emission of waste gases and solids in the process of economic growth, and showed a rapid increasing trend at the late stage of the period. Population factor had less impact on the increase of this environmental pressure, while economic growth factor had obvious impact on it. Technological progress did mitigate, but could not offset the impact of economic growth factor, and the impacts of economic growth and technological factors on the environmental pressure differed with the kinds of pollutants.

  19. Rapid landscape change in 6th century northern Jordan: interdisciplinary geoarchaeological perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucke, Bernhard

    2016-04-01

    Landscapes of the ancient fertile crescent are considered affected by soil degradation as result of long-term farming since the Neolithic, and impressive ruins of antiquity led to assumptions that their abandonment must have been conntected with reduced agricultural productivity. In this context, a valley fill near the site of Abila of the Decapolis in northern Jordan was apparently deposited largely during the 6th century AD, and provides evidence for a rapid and intense landscape change during the Late Byzantine period. However, an interdisciplinary case study of land use, soil development, and sediments found that the valley fill cannot be connected with large-scale soil erosion in the vicinity of the site. On the one hand, this is indicated by the distribution of soil development and archaeological material as marker of past land use activity in the past, which suggests that the best soils were and still are used intensively. On the other hand, the sediments seem to point to the occurrence of climatic extremes such as heavy floods, the occurrence of soil creep after water saturation, but also a significant shift to aridity which may have triggered socio-economic changes of subsistence strategies from agriculture to pastoralism. The dates of sediments which are available so far indicate that the climatic change seemingly occurred rapidly within approximately 100 years during the late 6th and early 7th century AD, possibly connected with the "year without sun" or 'Mystery Veil' which the Byzantine historian Procopius described in the year 536 AD. Modern analogies of the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 let it seem possible that a volcanic event, perhaps the outbreak of the Ilopango volcano, was connected with these environmental turbulences. Such events cannot be understood by isolated studies: without a broad interdisciplinary framework, single archives are prone to misinterpretation, and our understanding of the environmental history of Abila is still very limited.

  20. San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) climate change adaptation assessment pilot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-01

    The objective of this pilot study was to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District : (BART) infrastructure and to develop and implement adaptation strategies against those impacts. Climate change haza...

  1. Potential economic effects of climate change on Finnish agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. KETTUNEN

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available In the assessment of the economic effects of climate change, changes in returns and costs have to be taken into consideration. Changes in returns are mainly caused by changes in the yield level. Costs are determined by various factors. Harvesting conditions may improve as the temperatures are higher. However, an increasing need for disease and pest control results in higher costs. Various extensive studies have indicated that rising temperatures with the CO2 fertilizing effect increase the crop potential in Finland. From the economic point of view an increase in yield level is highly significant, because the increase in costs remains quite small. A 10% increase in the yield level raises the farm income by about 6%. Because agriculture is supported in many ways either directly or indirectly, the rise in income level may be offset by lowering the support. Consequently, farmers may not benefit from an increase in the yield level, but the benefit will go to the state economy. However, an increase in the yield level resulting from rising temperatures is advantageous to the national economy, regardless of whether the benefit goes to the farmers or to the state.;

  2. Evidence-based medicine in rapidly changing technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schroeder, Torben Veith

    2008-01-01

    Evidence-based medicine (EBM) is not a randomised controlled trial (RCT), but EBM seeks to apply evidence gained from scientific methods - which could be RCT - to daily medical practice. Any surgical treatment reflects a certain development technically as well as skills based. The procedure may....... Special considerations should be given in rapidly developing fields. If started too early the resulting comparison will likely turn out to be irrelevant because the new technology is not fully developed, not mastered or the device may have undergone major modifications rendering the results obsolete....... On the other hand, if started too late there is a chance that data may be lost because the technology has already been introduced into the daily clinics and physicians may be unwilling to recruit patients. Or the opposite, that the technique may have been rejected without a proper trial. In this situation...

  3. Methodologies for assessing socio-economic impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smit, B.

    1993-01-01

    Much of the studies on climate change impacts have focused on physical and biological impacts, yet a knowledge of the social and economic impacts of climate change is likely to have a greater impact on the public and on policymakers. A conventional assessment of the impacts of climate change begins with scenarios of future climate, commonly derived from global climate models translated to a regional scale. Estimates of biophysical conditions provided by such scenarios provide a basis for analyses of human impacts, usually considered sector by sector. The scenario approach, although having considerable merit and appeal, has some noteworthy limitations. It encourages consideration of only a small set of scenarios, requires bold assumptions to be made about adjustments in human systems, provides little direct analysis of sensitivities of human social and economic systems to climate perturbations, and usually invokes the assumption that all factors other than climate are stable and have no synergistic effects on human systems. Conventional studies concentrate on average climate, yet climate is inherently variable. A common response to this situation is to propose further development of climate models, but this is not a sufficient or necessary condition for good and useful assessments of impacts on human activities. Different approaches to socioeconomic impact analysis are needed, and approaches should be considered that include identification of sensitivities in a social or ecological system, identification of critical threshold levels or critical speeds of change in variables, and exploration of alternative methodologies such as process studies, spatial and temporal analogues, and socio-economic systems modelling. 5 refs., 3 figs

  4. Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parey, Sylvie; Bernardara, Pietro; Donat, Markus G.

    2010-05-01

    Climate change is underway and even if mitigation measures are successfully implemented, societies will have to adapt to new climatic conditions in the near future and further. This session had been proposed to gather different studies dedicated to the climate change impact on some human activities, and discuss the possible ways of adaptation. Climate change is often presented in terms of global mean temperature evolutions, but what is important for adaptation concerns the local evolutions, and rather of the variability and extremes than of the mean of the involved meteorological parameters. In the session, studies and applications will be presented, covering different economical and industrial activities, such as energy production, (re-) insurance and risk assessment, water management or tourism.

  5. Changing Climate, Changing Behavior: Adaptive Economic Behavior and Housing Markets Responses to Flood Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Filatova, Tatiana; Bin, Okmyung; Kaminski, Bogumil; Koloch, Grzegorz

    2014-01-01

    Spatial econometrics and analytical spatial economic modeling advanced significantly in the recent years. Yet, methodologically they are designed to tackle marginal changes in the underlying dynamics of spatial urban systems. In the world with climate change, however, abrupt sudden non-marginal

  6. Changes in economic activity: The role of age and education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elke Loichinger

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Between 2000 and 2010, the labor force participation (LFP of European men stayed mostly constant, whereas the participation of women continued to increase. Participation rates of people close to normal retirement ages rose almost universally. At the same time, the education composition shifted toward higher levels of educational attainment and education-specific differentials in economic activity persisted. Objective: The aim of the paper is to understand the extent to which developments of LFP rates between 2000 and 2010 in selected European countries can be explained by age-specific and education-specific changes in participation rates, as compared to changes in populations' structural composition by age and education. Methods: We apply a decomposition methodology that allows us to disentangle changes in age- and education-specific LFP rates from changes in the age and educational structure of the population. Results: Our results show that LFP rates of adult women would have increased even more, had it not been for the downward pressure from the shift in the age composition toward older age groups with relatively lower levels of participation. This downward pressure also depressed male participation. The increase in participation among older people is mainly explained by participation increases among those with nontertiary education and is reinforced by a general shift toward higher levels of educational attainment. Contribution: Beyond changes in the age structure, we quantify the role of compositional changes by educational attainment. Our results indicate that labor supply may not decrease to the extent expected due to population aging, given educational expansion and education-specific patterns of economic activity.

  7. Physical-Socio-Economic Modeling of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; Vatan, F.

    2008-12-01

    Because of the global nature of climate change, any assessment of the effects of plans, policies, and response to climate change demands a model that encompasses the entire Earth System, including socio- economic factors. Physics-based climate models of the factors that drive global temperatures, rainfall patterns, and sea level are necessary but not sufficient to guide decision making. Actions taken by farmers, industrialists, environmentalists, politicians, and other policy makers may result in large changes to economic factors, international relations, food production, disease vectors, and beyond. These consequences will not be felt uniformly around the globe or even across a given region. Policy models must comprehend all of these considerations. Combining physics-based models of the Earth's climate and biosphere with societal models of population dynamics, economics, and politics is a grand challenge with high stakes. We propose to leverage our recent advances in modeling and simulation of military stability and reconstruction operations to models that address all these areas of concern. Following over twenty years' experience of successful combat simulation, JPL has started developing Minerva, which will add demographic, economic, political, and media/information models to capabilities that already exist. With these new models, for which we have design concepts, it will be possible to address a very wide range of potential national and international problems that were previously inaccessible. Our climate change model builds on Minerva and expands the geographical horizon from playboxes containing regions and neighborhoods to the entire globe. This system consists of a collection of interacting simulation models that specialize in different aspects of the global situation. They will each contribute to and draw from a pool of shared data. The basic models are: the physical model; the demographic model; the political model; the economic model; and the media

  8. Managing in the rapidly changing context of higher education: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Besides the rate of change in the sector there are also, as seen from the continuous media coverage, a number of universities and technikons in some form of financial or leadership crisis. Over the past years one of the main reasons given for these crises was outstanding student fees. However, the reasons now alluded to ...

  9. Alveolar bone changes after asymmetric rapid maxillary expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akin, Mehmet; Baka, Zeliha Muge; Ileri, Zehra; Basciftci, Faruk Ayhan

    2015-09-01

    To quantitatively evaluate the effects of asymmetric rapid maxillary expansion (ARME) on cortical bone thickness and buccal alveolar bone height (BABH), and to determine the formation of dehiscence and fenestration in the alveolar bone surrounding the posterior teeth, using cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT). The CBCT records of 23 patients with true unilateral posterior skeletal crossbite (10 boys, 14.06 ± 1.08 years old, and 13 girls, 13.64 ± 1.32 years old) who had undergone ARME were selected from our clinic archives. The bonded acrylic ARME appliance, including an occlusal stopper, was used on all patients. CBCT records had been taken before ARME (T1) and after the 3-month retention period (T2). Axial slices of the CBCT images at 3 vertical levels were used to evaluate the buccal and palatal aspects of the canines, first and second premolars, and first molars. Paired samples and independent sample t-tests were used for statistical comparison. The results suggest that buccal cortical bone thickness of the affected side was significantly more affected by the expansion than was the unaffected side (P ARME significantly reduced the BABH of the canines (P ARME also increased the incidence of dehiscence and fenestration on the affected side. ARME may quantitatively decrease buccal cortical bone thickness and height on the affected side.

  10. Planetary health: protecting human health on a rapidly changing planet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Samuel S

    2018-12-23

    The impact of human activities on our planet's natural systems has been intensifying rapidly in the past several decades, leading to disruption and transformation of most natural systems. These disruptions in the atmosphere, oceans, and across the terrestrial land surface are not only driving species to extinction, they pose serious threats to human health and wellbeing. Characterising and addressing these threats requires a paradigm shift. In a lecture delivered to the Academy of Medical Sciences on Nov 13, 2017, I describe the scale of human impacts on natural systems and the extensive associated health effects across nearly every dimension of human health. I highlight several overarching themes that emerge from planetary health and suggest advances in the way we train, reward, promote, and fund the generation of health scientists who will be tasked with breaking out of their disciplinary silos to address this urgent constellation of health threats. I propose that protecting the health of future generations requires taking better care of Earth's natural systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Climate change and economic growth: a heterogeneous panel data approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sequeira, Tiago Neves; Santos, Marcelo Serra; Magalhães, Manuela

    2018-05-31

    Climate change is a global phenomenon. Its impact on economic growth must therefore be analyzed in accordance with its (time-varying) common effects. We present an econometric analysis that evaluates this effect taking into account its global nature. Contrary to previous evidence that ignores the global effects, we obtain that the rising temperature has not decreased growth in real GDP per capita in the second half of the twentieth century for the world countries. However, we obtain a negative effect of rising temperatures and a positive effect of rising precipitation in poor countries. This positive effect of rising precipitation is also confirmed for hot and temperate countries.

  12. ENTREPRENEURSHIP, SUPPORT OF THE ECONOMIC CHANGES IN CHINA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlăduț-Severian IACOB

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Viewed as an extremely tempting and complex topic, entrepreneurship is still a young, emerging field of study with a low paradigmatic evolution which arises strong interest among researchers, practitioners and political deciders. The detailed examination of the multiple nature of entrepreneurship has revealed the manifestation of more analysis stages, each of these contributing to a deeper understanding of the field. The focus of the studies was directed mainly to the individual, corporations and nations. The research of entrepreneurship at an individual level focuses on the people’s entrepreneurial skills, on their ability to take risks and other personal particularities. The analysis of the corporate level of entrepreneurship emphasizes the companies’ potential to develop strategies to ensure their existence in the business field. At national level, entrepreneurship seen as a result of culture, research-development, access to financing and technology can be considered the ”engine” of economic growth and poverty reduction. The present study wishes to combine all these aspects to argument the force of entrepreneurship in China, a country with an economy in transition, where, in the last three decades, an assumed economic development was registered. Thus, it is shown that at individual level, the Chinese entrepreneurship focuses on entrepreneurial education that is closely related to individuals’ intentions. The corporate level is captured through the evolution of generations of entrepreneurs and their concepts regarding the development strategies of their companies. At national level, the development of entrepreneurship has completed on behalf of the Chinese government’ s efforts to ensure an economic friendly environment , a better life standard, a coherent education reform, a change of business attitude and the regional economic opening.

  13. Rapid changes in gene expression direct rapid shifts in intestinal form and function in the Burmese python after feeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Audra L; Card, Daren C; Ruggiero, Robert P; Schield, Drew R; Adams, Richard H; Pollock, David D; Secor, Stephen M; Castoe, Todd A

    2015-05-01

    Snakes provide a unique and valuable model system for studying the extremes of physiological remodeling because of the ability of some species to rapidly upregulate organ form and function upon feeding. The predominant model species used to study such extreme responses has been the Burmese python because of the extreme nature of postfeeding response in this species. We analyzed the Burmese python intestine across a time series, before, during, and after feeding to understand the patterns and timing of changes in gene expression and their relationship to changes in intestinal form and function upon feeding. Our results indicate that >2,000 genes show significant changes in expression in the small intestine following feeding, including genes involved in intestinal morphology and function (e.g., hydrolases, microvillus proteins, trafficking and transport proteins), as well as genes involved in cell division and apoptosis. Extensive changes in gene expression occur surprisingly rapidly, within the first 6 h of feeding, coincide with changes in intestinal morphology, and effectively return to prefeeding levels within 10 days. Collectively, our results provide an unprecedented portrait of parallel changes in gene expression and intestinal morphology and physiology on a scale that is extreme both in the magnitude of changes, as well as in the incredibly short time frame of these changes, with up- and downregulation of expression and function occurring in the span of 10 days. Our results also identify conserved vertebrate signaling pathways that modulate these responses, which may suggest pathways for therapeutic modulation of intestinal function in humans. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  14. The Economic Value of Changes in Water Quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Anne Kejser

    Water quality is from both a European and Danish perspective challenged by private use of the resource. The public good characteristics of the resource require that regulation should internalize the non-market values of water quality, in order to reach an optimal level from a welfare economic...... perspective. Valuation using stated preference techniques to value changes in ecosystem services has been widely used to estimate values of water quality. However, heterogeneity in values exists across different groups in the population. The objective of this PhD-thesis is to explore two different kinds...... of preference heterogeneity, when valuing changes in water quality. The PhD thesis consists of four papers all related to heterogeneity in the public preferences for water quality improvements. Papers referred to as 1, 2 and 3 are based on a discrete choice experiment (DCE) on water quality improvements...

  15. Understanding the economic benefits of climate change commitments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hinge, A.W.; Bourgeois, T.G.

    1998-01-01

    Much has been written about the likely economic costs of US commitment to a global climate change treaty, whereby signatory countries would be expected to stabilize or reduce carbon emissions. A great deal of rhetoric has surrounded the potential costs of such action, with some estimates stating that committing to such a treaty would result in 1.2 to 1.8 million job losses by the year 2010. On the other side of the discussion, the Energy Innovations report prepared by ACEEE and others showed that emissions could be cut by 10% by 2010, at the same time that the economy would grow modestly by $2.8 billion over a base case, including a net gain of 800,000 additional jobs. One area that has not been adequately addressed in the debate is quantifying the current level of activity of the positively affected industries from such a climate treaty, including the energy efficiency and renewable energy industries and other environmental businesses. This paper presents information on the current and prospective contribution of the energy efficiency industries to US economic output, exports and job creation. This will better define what the possible benefits to the US economy might be of potential global climate change policies. The magnitude of the beneficial economic impact will in part be determined by the extent to which energy efficiency products, and the components which comprise them, are manufactured in the US. An important issue to be addressed is the existence, scale, and the competitive position of these energy efficiency industries in the US

  16. Emotional responses to behavioral economic incentives for health behavior change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Swaluw, Koen; Lambooij, Mattijs S; Mathijssen, Jolanda J P; Zeelenberg, Marcel; Polder, Johan J; Prast, Henriëtte M

    2018-03-05

    Many people aim to change their lifestyle, but have trouble acting on their intentions. Behavioral economic incentives and related emotions can support commitment to personal health goals, but the related emotions remain unexplored. In a regret lottery, winners who do not attain their health goals do not get their prize but receive feedback on what their forgone earnings would have been. This counterfactual feedback should provoke anticipated regret and increase commitment to health goals. We explored which emotions were actually expected upon missing out on a prize due to unsuccessful weight loss and which incentive-characteristics influence their likelihood and intensity. Participants reported their expected emotional response after missing out on a prize in one of 12 randomly presented incentive-scenarios, which varied in incentive type, incentive size and deadline distance. Participants primarily reported feeling disappointment, followed by regret. Regret was expected most when losing a lottery prize (vs. a fixed incentive) and intensified with prize size. Multiple features of the participant and the lottery incentive increase the occurrence and intensity of regret. As such, our findings can be helpful in designing behavioral economic incentives that leverage emotions to support health behavior change.

  17. Rapid adaptive responses to climate change in corals

    KAUST Repository

    Torda, Gergely; Donelson, Jennifer M.; Aranda, Manuel; Barshis, Daniel J.; Bay, Line; Berumen, Michael L.; Bourne, David G.; Cantin, Neal; Foret, Sylvain; Matz, Mikhail; Miller, David J.; Moya, Aurelie; Putnam, Hollie M.; Ravasi, Timothy; van Oppen, Madeleine J. H.; Thurber, Rebecca Vega; Vidal-Dupiol, Jeremie; Voolstra, Christian R.; Watson, Sue-Ann; Whitelaw, Emma; Willis, Bette L.; Munday, Philip L.

    2017-01-01

    Pivotal to projecting the fate of coral reefs is the capacity of reef-building corals to acclimatize and adapt to climate change. Transgenerational plasticity may enable some marine organisms to acclimatize over several generations and it has been hypothesized that epigenetic processes and microbial associations might facilitate adaptive responses. However, current evidence is equivocal and understanding of the underlying processes is limited. Here, we discuss prospects for observing transgenerational plasticity in corals and the mechanisms that could enable adaptive plasticity in the coral holobiont, including the potential role of epigenetics and coral-associated microbes. Well-designed and strictly controlled experiments are needed to distinguish transgenerational plasticity from other forms of plasticity, and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms and their relative importance compared with genetic adaptation.

  18. Rapid changes in the gut microbiome during human evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moeller, Andrew H; Li, Yingying; Mpoudi Ngole, Eitel; Ahuka-Mundeke, Steve; Lonsdorf, Elizabeth V; Pusey, Anne E; Peeters, Martine; Hahn, Beatrice H; Ochman, Howard

    2014-11-18

    Humans are ecosystems containing trillions of microorganisms, but the evolutionary history of this microbiome is obscured by a lack of knowledge about microbiomes of African apes. We sequenced the gut communities of hundreds of chimpanzees, bonobos, and gorillas and developed a phylogenetic approach to reconstruct how present-day human microbiomes have diverged from those of ancestral populations. Compositional change in the microbiome was slow and clock-like during African ape diversification, but human microbiomes have deviated from the ancestral state at an accelerated rate. Relative to the microbiomes of wild apes, human microbiomes have lost ancestral microbial diversity while becoming specialized for animal-based diets. Individual wild apes cultivate more phyla, classes, orders, families, genera, and species of bacteria than do individual humans across a range of societies. These results indicate that humanity has experienced a depletion of the gut flora since diverging from Pan.

  19. Rapid adaptive responses to climate change in corals

    KAUST Repository

    Torda, Gergely

    2017-09-01

    Pivotal to projecting the fate of coral reefs is the capacity of reef-building corals to acclimatize and adapt to climate change. Transgenerational plasticity may enable some marine organisms to acclimatize over several generations and it has been hypothesized that epigenetic processes and microbial associations might facilitate adaptive responses. However, current evidence is equivocal and understanding of the underlying processes is limited. Here, we discuss prospects for observing transgenerational plasticity in corals and the mechanisms that could enable adaptive plasticity in the coral holobiont, including the potential role of epigenetics and coral-associated microbes. Well-designed and strictly controlled experiments are needed to distinguish transgenerational plasticity from other forms of plasticity, and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms and their relative importance compared with genetic adaptation.

  20. A decade of rapid change: Biocultural influences on child growth in highland Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oths, Kathryn S; Smith, Hannah N; Stein, Max J; Lazo Landivar, Rodrigo J

    2018-03-01

    In the past decade many areas of Peru have been undergoing extreme environmental, economic, and cultural change. In the highland hamlet of Chugurpampa, La Libertad, climate change has ruined harvests and led to frequent periods of migration to the coast in search of livelihood. This biocultural research examines how the changes could be affecting the growth of children who maintain residence in the highlands. Clinical records from the early 2000s were compared to those from the early 2010s. Charts were randomly selected to record anthropometric data, netting a sample of 75 children ages 0-60 months of age. Analysis of covariance was run to compare mean stature, weight, and BMI between cohorts. Percentage of children who fall below the -2 threshold for z-scores for height and weight were compared by age and cohort. A significant secular trend in growth was found, with children born more recently larger than those born a decade before. The effect is most notable in the first year of life, with the growth advantage attenuated by the age of 3 for height and age 4 for weight. While children were unlikely to be stunted from 0 to 3 years of age, 44% of the later cohort were stunted and 11% were underweight from 4 to 5 years of age. Three possible explanations for the rapid shift are entertained: more time spent on the coast during gestation and early childhood, which may attenuate the effect of hypoxia on child growth; dietary change; and increased use of biomedicine. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Ethnobiology 5: Interdisciplinarity in an Era of Rapid Environmental Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve Wolverton

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Ethnobiology 5 stems from Eugene Hunn’s four phases of the history of ethnobiology and focuses on the relevance of ethnobiological research in the context of environmental and cultural change.  It refers to a contemporary phase of the field’s historical development.  In this paper, I argue that ethnobiology is preadapted to be a scholarly umbrella for a number of disciplines that concern human-environment interactions, suggesting that one goal of Ethnobiology 5 is to bridge traditional academic boundaries in order to broaden the community of ethnobiologists. Another goal of Ethnobiology 5 is to capitalize on and communicate the relevance of ethnobiological scholarship for solving problems related to contemporary environmental and cultural crises.  Indeed, ethnobiology is not a subfield of any traditional discipline and by the nature of its name bridges humanities, social science, and science.  Ethnobiology has always been interdisciplinary in terms of its subject matter, yet its community of scholars is relatively small compared to mission-driven disciplines, such as conservation biology.  Venues for publication and presentation of ethnobiological research, as well as how ethnobiologists portray their research, are critical to growing ethnobiology.

  2. Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Mumby, P. J.; Hooten, A. J.; Steneck, R. S.; Greenfield, P.; Gomez, E.; Harvell, C. D.; Sale, P. F.; Edwards, A. J.; Caldeira, K.; Knowlton, N.; Eakin, C. M.; Iglesias-Prieto, R.; Muthiga, N.; Bradbury, R. H.; Dubi, A.; Hatziolos, M. E.

    2007-12-01

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to exceed 500 parts per million and global temperatures to rise by at least 2°C by 2050 to 2100, values that significantly exceed those of at least the past 420,000 years during which most extant marine organisms evolved. Under conditions expected in the 21st century, global warming and ocean acidification will compromise carbonate accretion, with corals becoming increasingly rare on reef systems. The result will be less diverse reef communities and carbonate reef structures that fail to be maintained. Climate change also exacerbates local stresses from declining water quality and overexploitation of key species, driving reefs increasingly toward the tipping point for functional collapse. This review presents future scenarios for coral reefs that predict increasingly serious consequences for reef-associated fisheries, tourism, coastal protection, and people. As the International Year of the Reef 2008 begins, scaled-up management intervention and decisive action on global emissions are required if the loss of coral-dominated ecosystems is to be avoided.

  3. Effects of economic change on male morbidity in neighbouring industrial and rural municipalities in northern Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Diderichsen, Finn; Janlert, U

    1992-01-01

    The aim was to investigate the health effects of economic changes in a rural and industrial community.......The aim was to investigate the health effects of economic changes in a rural and industrial community....

  4. Challenges of rapid economic growth in China: Reconciling sustainable energy use, environmental stewardship and social development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Yong; Oberheitmann, Andreas

    2009-01-01

    China aims at quadrupling per-capita GDP by 2020 compared to the year 2000. Without any energy and environmental policy measures, this tremendous economic growth would be associated with a quadrupling of primary energy consumption up to 6.3 billion tons of standard coal equivalents (sce) and energy-related CO 2 -emissions of 13.9 billion tons Against this background, this paper is to set China's need to implement its sustainable development strategy into the quantitative context of the countries economic development and subsequent economic growth-related environmental problems. China is urgently searching for a way to ease the negative implications of economic growth and has committed itself to achieve a level of 3.0 billion ton sce primary energy consumption in 2020. As a consequence, the macro-economic energy intensity has to be reduced by 53% by 2020. A reduction of 53% by 2020 would lead to an energy intensity level 30% points below the year-2000 level of developed countries. As for natural resources, the expected economic growth will lead to an increase of crude oil net-imports up to 455 million ton sce in 2020 and 650 million ton sce in 2030. As for regional income distribution, economic growth helped to decrease existing inequities

  5. Economic crisis and changes in drug use in the Spanish economically active population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colell, Esther; Sánchez-Niubò, Albert; Delclos, George L; Benavides, Fernando G; Domingo-Salvany, Antonia

    2015-07-01

    To examine changes in the use of alcohol, cannabis and hypnotics/sedatives between two periods (before and during Spain's economic crisis), and to identify differences in the change between employed and unemployed individuals. Using cross-sectional data from four editions of the Spanish Household Survey on Alcohol and Drugs, we selected economically active individuals aged 16-64 years (total sample = 62 440) and defined two periods, pre-crisis [period 1 (P1) = 2005-07] and crisis (P2 = 2009-11). Poisson regression models with robust variance were fitted to obtain prevalence ratios (PR) of heavy and binge drinking and multinomial regression models to obtain relative risk ratios (RRR) of cannabis and hypnotic/sedative use between the two periods, also considering the interaction between period and employment status. While the prevalence of alcohol use remained stable, heavy drinking declined in P2 in men both overall [PR = 0.73; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.67-0.79] and in the two age groups (16-34 and 35-64 years), and also in women overall (PR = 0.86; 95% CI = 0.75-0.99) and in the older age group. In contrast, binge drinking increased overall in P2 in men (PR = 1.17; 95% CI = 1.12-1.22) and in women (PR = 1.62; 95% CI = 1.49-1.76), and in both age groups. No differences in the change were observed between employed and unemployed individuals. Overall cannabis use remained stable in P2, but unemployed men and women of the older age group were more likely to have increased sporadic use compared to their employed counterparts (RRR = 2.24; 95% CI = 1.36-3.68 and RRR = 3.21; 95% CI = 1.30-7.93, respectively). Hypnotic/sedative use remained stable in P2 in men, but unemployed men were less likely to have increased heavy use in P2 compared with employed men (RRR = 0.69; 95% CI = 0.49-0.97). In women, heavy use increased in P2 overall and in the older age group, irrespective of employment status. During a period of economic recession in Spain, heavy drinking

  6. The price of change [The Stern Review looks at the economics of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stern, N.

    2007-01-01

    The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, commissioned by the UK Treasury, has assessed a wide range of evidence on the impacts of climate change and on the economic costs. And, in its review, has used a number of different techniques to assess costs and risks. From all of these perspectives, the evidence gathered by the Review leads to a simple conclusion: the benefits of strong and early action far outweigh the economic costs of not acting. Climate change will affect the basic elements of life for people around the world - access to water, food production, health, and the environment. Hundreds of millions of people could suffer hunger, water shortages and coastal flooding as the world warms. So prompt and strong action is clearly warranted. Because climate change is a global problem, the response to it must be international. It must be based on a shared vision of long term goals and agreement on frameworks that will accelerate action over the next decade, and it must build on mutually reinforcing approaches at national, regional and international level. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol provide a basis for international co-operation, along with a range of partnerships and other approaches. But more ambitious action is now required around the world

  7. Economic Education in Korea: Current Status and Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahn, Jinsoo; Jang, Kyungho

    2010-01-01

    The authors describe key aspects of precollege and undergraduate economic education in Korea. They show that precollege students seem to have low economics literacy due to problems with the curriculum and insufficient training of teachers. At the undergraduate level, they show that economics departments have more male students than female students…

  8. Modelling the economic impacts of addressing climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    This Power Point report presents highlights of the latest economic modelling of Canada's Kyoto commitment to address climate change. It presents framework assumptions and a snapshot under 4 scenarios. The objective of this report is to evaluate the national, sectoral, provincial and territorial impacts of the federal reference case policy package in which the emissions reduction target is 170 Mt from a business-as-usual scenario. The reference case policy package also includes 30 Mt of sinks from current packages of which 20 Mt are derived from the forestry sector and the remainder from agricultural sector. The report examined 4 scenarios based on 2 international carbon prices ($10 and $50) per tonne of carbon dioxide in 2010. The scenarios were also based on the fiscal assumptions that climate change initiatives and revenue losses would directly affect the governments' balances, or that the government balances are maintained by increasing personal income tax. A comparison of impacts under each of the 4 scenarios to 2010 was presented. The model presents impacts on GDP, employment, disposable income per household, and energy prices. 4 tabs., 4 figs

  9. Ecosystem change and human health: implementation economics and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattanayak, S K; Kramer, R A; Vincent, J R

    2017-06-05

    Several recent initiatives such as Planetary Health , EcoHealth and One Health claim that human health depends on flourishing natural ecosystems. However, little has been said about the operational and implementation challenges of health-oriented conservation actions on the ground. We contend that ecological-epidemiological research must be complemented by a form of implementation science that examines: (i) the links between specific conservation actions and the resulting ecological changes, and (ii) how this ecological change impacts human health and well-being, when human behaviours are considered. Drawing on the policy evaluation tradition in public economics, first, we present three examples of recent social science research on conservation interventions that affect human health. These examples are from low- and middle-income countries in the tropics and subtropics. Second, drawing on these examples, we present three propositions related to impact evaluation and non-market valuation that can help guide future multidisciplinary research on conservation and human health. Research guided by these propositions will allow stakeholders to determine how ecosystem-mediated strategies for health promotion compare with more conventional biomedical prevention and treatment strategies for safeguarding health.This article is part of the themed issue 'Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'. © 2017 The Authors.

  10. Economic crisis and blood donation: How are donors' motivations changing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, Sara; Guiddi, Paolo; Marta, Elena; Saturni, Vincenzo

    2016-06-01

    The economic crisis has exasperated people's feelings of loneliness; job instability often does not allow people to commit to voluntary work. The present work proposes to examine whether the motivations to donate blood have changed before and during the period of economic crisis, taking into consideration donors' gender. We adopted Omoto & Snyder's functionalist approach, which states that blood donation serves different functions for any one person, who may have different motivations from those held by other people. We compared six-year pre-post (t1 "pre-crisis": 2008 - t2 "during the crisis": 2014) data on a sample of blood donors in a single blood donation center situated in Northern Italy. T-test was used for data analysis. Three hundred thirty donors (age range 18-60, M = 32.6, SD = 9.53; 54.5% male) were administered a survey at t1 and 444 (age range 18-60, M = 37.8, SD = 10.16; 68% male) six years later at t2. In both surveys, participants were administered a questionnaire with socio-demographic items and a version of Omoto & Snyder's Motivations to Volunteer scale adapted to blood donation. Donors' motivation priorities did not vary over time. Values and Self-enhancement motivations are the most prevalent. Knowledge and Ego-protection motivations decreased with the upsurge of the crisis. Women, in general, report higher mean values than men do for Values and Ego-protection motivations. These results can offer valuable clues for the agencies that manage blood collection. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  11. Climate Change, Air Pollution, and the Economics of Health Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilly, J.; Yang, T.; Paltsev, S.; Wang, C.; Prinn, R.; Sarofim, M.

    2003-12-01

    Climate change and air pollution are intricately linked. The distinction between greenhouse substances and other air pollutants is resolved at least for the time being in the context of international negotiations on climate policy through the identification of CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6 and the per- and hydro- fluorocarbons as substances targeted for control. Many of the traditional air pollutant emissions including for example CO, NMVOCs, NOx, SO2, aerosols, and NH3 also directly or indirectly affect the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Among both sets of gases are precursors of and contributors to pollutants such as tropopospheric ozone, itself a strong greenhouse gas, particulate matter, and other pollutants that affect human health. Fossil fuel combustion, production, or transportation is a significant source for many of these substances. Climate policy can thus affect traditional air pollution or air pollution policy can affect climate. Health effects of acute or chronic exposure to air pollution include increased asthma, lung cancer, heart disease and bronchitis among others. These, in turn, redirect resources in the economy toward medical expenditures or result in lost labor or non-labor time with consequent effects on economic activity, itself producing a potential feedback on emissions levels. Study of these effects ultimately requires a fully coupled earth system model. Toward that end we develop an approach for introducing air pollution health impacts into the Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a component of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) a coupled economics-chemistry-atmosphere-ocean-terrestrial biosphere model of earth systems including an air pollution model resolving the urban scale. This preliminary examination allows us to consider how climate policy affects air pollution and consequent health effects, and to study the potential impacts of air pollution policy on climate. The novel contribution is the effort to

  12. Urbanization and environmental change during the economic transition on the Mongolian Plateau: Hohhot and Ulaanbaatar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Peilei; Chen, Jiquan; John, Ranjeet

    2016-01-01

    Driven by drastic socioeconomic changes in China and Mongolia, urbanization has become one of the most significant driving forces in the transformation of the Mongolian Plateau in the past 30 years. Using Hohhot and Ulaanbaatar as case studies, we developed a holistic approach to examine the socioeconomic and natural driving forces for urbanization and to investigate the impact on the urban environment. We used a multidisciplinary approach and relied on a variety of data sources to assess the changes of the landscape and environment of the two cities. We detected a rapid urbanization in Hohhot and Ulaanbaatar, both in terms of urban population growth and urban land expansion, from 1990 to 2010, with a much faster speed in 2000-2010. The local geo-physical conditions have constrained the spatial direction of expansion. Ulaanbaatar lagged behind Hohhot for about a decade when measured by indicators of urban population and urban land. Both cities have a degraded urban environment and a growing air pollution epidemic. While Hohhot had worse air pollution than Ulaanbaatar in the early 2000s, the gap between the two cities became smaller after 2010. The research presented here highlights the following as key determinants for urbanization and environmental change: (1) the co-evolution of urbanization, economic development, and environmental change; (2) the urbanization of transitional economies driven by the change of the economic structure, i.e., the development by both manufacturing and tertiary sectors and the change in the primary sector; and (3) the recent institutional changes and increased integration with the global economy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Long-term culture change related to rapid response system implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Jennifer; Johansson, Anna; Lennes, Inga; Hsu, Douglas; Tess, Anjala; Howell, Michael

    2014-12-01

    Increasing attention to patient safety in training hospitals may come at the expense of trainee autonomy and professional growth. This study sought to examine changes in medical trainees' self-reported behaviour after the institution-wide implementation of a rapid response system. We conducted a two-point cross-sectional survey of medical trainees in 2006, during the implementation of a rapid response system, and in 2010, in a single academic medical centre. A novel instrument was used to measure trainee likelihood of calling for supervisory assistance, perception of autonomy, and comfort in managing decompensating patients. Non-parametric tests to assess for change were used and year of training was evaluated as an effect modifier. Response rates were 38% in 2006 and 70% in 2010. After 5 years of the full implementation of the rapid response system, residents were significantly more likely to report calling their attending physicians for assistance (rising from 40% to 65% of relevant situations; p autonomy at 5 years after the implementation of the rapid response system. These changes were mirrored in the actual use of the rapid response system, which increased by 41% during the 5-year period after adjustment for patient volume (p < 0.0001). A primary team-focused implementation of a rapid response system was associated with durable changes in resident physicians' reported behaviour, including increased comfort with involving more experienced physicians and managing unstable patients. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Sugammadex for reversal of neuromuscular block after rapid sequence intubation: a systematic review and economic assessment†

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, D.; Paulden, M.; Paton, F.; Heirs, M.; Duffy, S.; Hunter, J. M.; Sculpher, M.; Woolacott, N.

    2010-01-01

    Summary Sugammadex 16 mg kg−1 can be used for the immediate reversal of neuromuscular block 3 min after administration of rocuronium and could be used in place of succinylcholine for emergency intubation. We have systematically reviewed the efficacy and cost-effectiveness and made an economic assessment of sugammadex for immediate reversal. The economic assessment investigated whether sugammadex appears cost-effective under various assumptions about the value of any reduction in recovery time with sugammadex, the likelihood of a ‘can't intubate, can't ventilate’ (CICV) event, the age of the patient, and the length of the procedure. Three trials were included in the efficacy review. Sugammadex administered 3 or 5 min after rocuronium produced markedly faster recovery than placebo or spontaneous recovery from succinylcholine-induced block. No published economic evaluations were found. Our economic analyses showed that sugammadex appears more cost-effective, where the value of any reduction in recovery time is greater, where the reduction in mortality compared with succinylcholine is greater, and where the patient is younger, for lower probabilities of a CICV event and for long procedures which do not require profound block throughout. Because of the lack of evidence, the value of some parameters remains unknown, which makes it difficult to provide a definitive assessment of the cost-effectiveness of sugammadex in practice. The use of sugammadex in combination with high-dose rocuronium is efficacious. Further research is needed to clarify key parameters in the analysis and to allow a fuller economic assessment. PMID:20937718

  15. Rapid changes in the range limits of Scots pine 4000 years ago

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gear, A.J.; Huntley, B.

    1991-01-01

    Paleoecological data provide estimates of response rates to past climate changes. Fossil Pinus sylvestris stumps in far northern Scotland demonstrate former presence of pine trees where conventional pollen evidence of pine forests is lacking. Radiocarbon, dendrochronological, and fine temporal-resolution palynological data show that pine forest were present for about four centuries some 4,000 years ago; the forests expanded and then retreated rapidly some 70 to 80 kilometers. Despite the rapidity of this response to climate change, it occurred at rates slower by an order of magnitude than those necessary to maintain equilibrium with forecast climate changes attributed to the greenhouse effect

  16. Understanding rapid theoretical change in particle physics: a month-by-month co-citation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, D.; Koester, D.; White, D.H.; Kern, R.

    1979-01-01

    While co-citation analysis has proved a powerful tool in the study of changes in intellectual foci in science, no one has ever used the technique to study very rapid changes in the theoretical structure of a scientific field. This paper presents month-by-month co-citation analyses of key phases in the weak-electromagnetic unification research program within particle physics, and shows that these analyses capture and illuminate very rapid intellectual changes. These data provide yet another illustration of the utility of co-citation analysis for understanding the history of science. 8 figures

  17. Curioser and Curioser: New Concepts in the Rapidly Changing Landscape of Educational Administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Frances C.

    1999-01-01

    The new "Handbook" assumes that society is changing rapidly and educational administration must change with it. This article critiques chapters on four concepts: ideology, the new consumerism, social capital, and the new institutionalism. Consumerism is pure 19th-century liberalism/individualism; social capital theory and…

  18. Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armit, Ian; Swindles, Graeme T; Becker, Katharina; Plunkett, Gill; Blaauw, Maarten

    2014-12-02

    The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological (14)C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

  19. Cumulative effects of rapid climate and land-use changes on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, D. A.; Leibman, M. O.; Forbes, B. C.; Epstein, H. E.

    2008-12-01

    Our principal goal is to develop better, more far-looking tools to predict the cumulative effects of resource development, climate-change, and traditional land use. Here we use remote sensing, climate-change analyses, socio-economic analyses, and vegetation-change models to examine the cumulative effects of climate change, gas development, and reindeer herding on the Yamal Peninsula in northwest Siberia as part of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI). We find: 1. Direct (planned) impacts of industrial activities on the Yamal Peninsula are currently local and limited in extent, but this is changing rapidly as extensive gas fields are developed and land and sea transportation corridors are developed to get the gas to market. Indirect impacts of the development at Bovanenkovo, the largest gas field, exceed the direct impacts by a factor of three, and the total area of influence of the development on the reindeer pasturelands (e.g., area where migration routes and access to pasturelands is affected) exceeds the direct impacts by a factor of about 40. 2. The trend in land-surface temperatures has co-varied with the trend in sea-ice. Low sea ice in the preceding December-March period is correlated to warmer land temperature the following summer. The sea- ice trends in the Kara Sea-Yamal region are tied to variation in the North Atlantic Oscillation index. 4. Only a small greening response to warming has been detected on the Yamal in comparison with some other areas in the Arctic (e.g. Northern Alaska). The actual effects of climate-change on vegetation are currently hard to document at the ground level because of lack of baseline and long-term ground observations and difficulty of excluding reindeer in these studies. 5. There is high potential for extensive landscape effects due to unstable sandy soils, and extremely ice-rich permafrost near the surface on slopes. 6. Two different vegetation modeling approaches are being used to predict

  20. Television, disordered eating, and young women in Fiji: negotiating body image and identity during rapid social change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Anne E

    2004-12-01

    Although the relationship between media exposure and risk behavior among youth is established at a population level, the specific psychological and social mechanisms mediating the adverse effects of media on youth remain poorly understood. This study reports on an investigation of the impact of the introduction of television to a rural community in Western Fiji on adolescent ethnic Fijian girls in a setting of rapid social and economic change. Narrative data were collected from 30 purposively selected ethnic Fijian secondary school girls via semi-structured, open-ended interviews. Interviews were conducted in 1998, 3 years after television was first broadcast to this region of Fiji. Narrative data were analyzed for content relating to response to television and mechanisms that mediate self and body image in Fijian adolescents. Data in this sample suggest that media imagery is used in both creative and destructive ways by adolescent Fijian girls to navigate opportunities and conflicts posed by the rapidly changing social environment. Study respondents indicated their explicit modeling of the perceived positive attributes of characters presented in television dramas, but also the beginnings of weight and body shape preoccupation, purging behavior to control weight, and body disparagement. Response to television appeared to be shaped by a desire for competitive social positioning during a period of rapid social transition. Understanding vulnerability to images and values imported with media will be critical to preventing disordered eating and, potentially, other youth risk behaviors in this population, as well as other populations at risk.

  1. How Should the Graduate Economics Core Be Changed?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abito, Jose Miguel; Borovickova, Katarina; Golden, Hays; Goldin, Jacob; Masten, Matthew A.; Morin, Miguel; Poirier, Alexandre; Pons, Vincent; Romem, Israel; Williams, Tyler; Yoon, Chamna

    2011-01-01

    The authors present suggestions by graduate students from a range of economics departments for improving the first-year core sequence in economics. The students identified a number of elements that should be added to the core: more training in building microeconomic models, a discussion of the methodological foundations of model-building, more…

  2. How Should the Financial Crisis Change How We Teach Economics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiller, Robert J.

    2010-01-01

    Student dissatisfaction with teaching of economics--particularly with macroeconomics--during the current financial crisis mirrors dissatisfaction that was expressed during the last big crisis, the Great Depression. Then and now, a good number of students have felt that their lectures bear little relation to the economic crisis raging outside the…

  3. EU-wide economic valuation of adaptation to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeuken, Ad; Bouwer, Laurens; Burzel, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    and benefits are explored for present and future climates, for different socio-economic developments paths and different adaptation strategies. For all models the SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) 2 (‘middle of the road’), 3 (‘fragmented world’) and 5 (‘market driven development’) have been explored as well...

  4. Social and environmental determinants of child health in Mongolia across years of rapid economic growth: 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Nehal; Bolorhon, Bolormaa; Narula, Indermohan; Zhu, Shihua; Manaseki-Hollan, Semira

    2017-10-30

    To understand the effect of economic growth on health, we investigated the trend in socio-economic and regional determinants of child health in Mongolia. This Central Asian country had the fastest economic growth amongst low and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2010 and a healthcare system in transition. Data was from Mongolian multiple indicator cluster surveys (MICS) in 2000, 2005 and 2010. Child nutrition/growth was measured by height-for-age z-score (HAZ), weight-for-age z-score (WAZ), prevalence of stunted (HAZ economic and environmental health determinants on each outcome in each year; 2000, 2005 and 2010. T-tests were used to measure significant change in HAZ and WAZ over the decade. Overall, from 2000 to 2010, there was a significant improvement (p economic factors increased on both stunting and weight. In 2000, region was a significant determinant: children living in three provinces were significantly more likely to be stunted and less likely to be immunised than Ulaanbaatar, but this was not significant by 2010. By 2010, none of the factors were significant determinants of immunisation in children. In 2000, economic status had no effect on stunting (OR = 0.91; 95%CI:0.49,1.66), however by 2010, children in the poorest economic quintile were 4 times more likely to be stunted than the richest (OR = 0.24; 95% CI:0.13,0.45; p Economic growth in Mongolia from 2000 to 2010 resulted in an increase in the effect of social determinants of child health; whilst focused policy improved access to immunisation. Children with less educated mothers and lower household incomes should be targeted in interventions to reduce health inequity.

  5. Economic Benefit of Introducing a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Kano State Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, K. A.; Afolabi, S.; Nda, M.; Daura, H. A.

    2018-04-01

    The objective of this study is to know the variables use in quantifying economic benefits of public transport project, contribution of public transport to economic productivity This paper attempts to provide a Road User Cost (RUC) comparison of current usage of Buses and Cars in three different stages which are the present time, do nothing and the introduction of new modes. Vehicle operating cost (VOC), value of time (VOT), pollution cost, accident cost and environmental cost are calculated in other to know the benefits for their abilities to ensure accessibility and mobility, reduce accidents and reduce environmental loss. The study stretch involves an 11.1 km of 2-lane divided carriageway road connecting Kabuga bus stop to Janguza market. Social costs which included accident costs, accident cost of cars (private modes) were found to be 50 times the accident cost of bus accidents. California Air Resource Board (CARB) model was adopted to evaluate Environmental costs. The total road user costs were then obtained to provide comparative evaluation among the study modes. Furthermore, the multiple future scenarios were created to provide understanding about the need for inclusion of other modes. In this regard, this paper provided a framework for the cost evaluation for an urban area and results indicate that buses are more cost-effective in transportation of equivalent number of passengers.

  6. A rapid, efficient, and economic device and method for the isolation and purification of mouse islet cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yin Zongyi

    Full Text Available Rapid, efficient, and economic method for the isolation and purification of islets has been pursued by numerous islet-related researchers. In this study, we compared the advantages and disadvantages of our developed patented method with those of commonly used conventional methods (Ficoll-400, 1077, and handpicking methods. Cell viability was assayed using Trypan blue, cell purity and yield were assayed using diphenylthiocarbazone, and islet function was assayed using acridine orange/ethidium bromide staining and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay-glucose stimulation testing 4 days after cultivation. The results showed that our islet isolation and purification method required 12 ± 3 min, which was significantly shorter than the time required in Ficoll-400, 1077, and HPU groups (34 ± 3, 41 ± 4, and 30 ± 4 min, respectively; P 1000 islets. In summary, the MCT method is a rapid, efficient, and economic method for isolating and purifying murine islet cell clumps. This method overcomes some of the shortcomings of conventional methods, showing a relatively higher quality and yield of islets within a shorter duration at a lower cost. Therefore, the current method provides researchers with an alternative option for islet isolation and should be widely generalized.

  7. Economic impact of rapid diagnostic methods in Clinical Microbiology: Price of the test or overall clinical impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantón, Rafael; Gómez G de la Pedrosa, Elia

    2017-12-01

    The need to reduce the time it takes to establish a microbiological diagnosis and the emergence of new molecular microbiology and proteomic technologies has fuelled the development of rapid and point-of-care techniques, as well as the so-called point-of-care laboratories. These laboratories are responsible for conducting both techniques partially to response to the outsourcing of the conventional hospital laboratories. Their introduction has not always been accompanied with economic studies that address their cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit and cost-utility, but rather tend to be limited to the unit price of the test. The latter, influenced by the purchase procedure, does not usually have a regulated reference value in the same way that medicines do. The cost-effectiveness studies that have recently been conducted on mass spectrometry in the diagnosis of bacteraemia and the use of antimicrobials have had the greatest clinical impact and may act as a model for future economic studies on rapid and point-of-care tests. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

  8. Monitoring changes in seismic velocity related to an ongoing rapid inflation event at Okmok volcano, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennington, Ninfa; Haney, Matt; De Angelis, Silvio; Thurber, Clifford; Freymueller, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Okmok is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian Arc. In an effort to improve our ability to detect precursory activity leading to eruption at Okmok, we monitor a recent, and possibly ongoing, GPS-inferred rapid inflation event at the volcano using ambient noise interferometry (ANI). Applying this method, we identify changes in seismic velocity outside of Okmok’s caldera, which are related to the hydrologic cycle. Within the caldera, we observe decreases in seismic velocity that are associated with the GPS-inferred rapid inflation event. We also determine temporal changes in waveform decorrelation and show a continual increase in decorrelation rate over the time associated with the rapid inflation event. Themagnitude of relative velocity decreases and decorrelation rate increases are comparable to previous studies at Piton de la Fournaise that associate such changes with increased production of volatiles and/ormagmatic intrusion within the magma reservoir and associated opening of fractures and/or fissures. Notably, the largest decrease in relative velocity occurs along the intrastation path passing nearest to the center of the caldera. This observation, along with equal amplitude relative velocity decreases revealed via analysis of intracaldera autocorrelations, suggests that the inflation sourcemay be located approximately within the center of the caldera and represent recharge of shallow magma storage in this location. Importantly, there is a relative absence of seismicity associated with this and previous rapid inflation events at Okmok. Thus, these ANI results are the first seismic evidence of such rapid inflation at the volcano.

  9. Climate change, mobility, and women's economic empowerment in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2018-05-14

    May 14, 2018 ... Now researchers from LEAD Pakistan have identified several policy ... Despite Pakistan's economic growth rate of 4.7% over the past three years, the ... Women face discrimination in the workplace, harassment on the way to ...

  10. Rapid ecosystem change challenges the adaptive capacity of Local Environmental Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Díaz-Reviriego, Isabel; Luz, Ana C; Cabeza, Mar; Pyhälä, Aili; Reyes-García, Victoria

    2015-03-01

    The use of Local Environmental Knowledge has been considered as an important strategy for adaptive management in the face of Global Environmental Change. However, the unprecedented rates at which global change occurs may pose a challenge to the adaptive capacity of local knowledge systems. In this paper, we use the concept of the shifting baseline syndrome to examine the limits in the adaptive capacity of the local knowledge of an indigenous society facing rapid ecosystem change. We conducted semi-structured interviews regarding perceptions of change in wildlife populations and in intergenerational transmission of knowledge amongst the Tsimane', a group of hunter-gatherers of Bolivian Amazonia ( n = 300 adults in 13 villages). We found that the natural baseline against which the Tsimane' measure ecosystem changes might be shifting with every generation as a result of (a) age-related differences in the perception of change and (b) a decrease in the intergenerational sharing of environmental knowledge. Such findings suggest that local knowledge systems might not change at a rate quick enough to adapt to conditions of rapid ecosystem change, hence potentially compromising the adaptive success of the entire social-ecological system. With the current pace of Global Environmental Change, widening the gap between the temporal rates of on-going ecosystem change and the timescale needed for local knowledge systems to adjust to change, efforts to tackle the shifting baseline syndrome are urgent and critical for those who aim to use Local Environmental Knowledge as a tool for adaptive management.

  11. Object-based change detection in rapid urbanization regions with remotely sensed observations: a case study of Shenzhen, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Lihuang; Dong, Guihua; Wang, Wei-Min; Yang, Lijun; Liang, Hong

    2013-10-01

    China, the most populous country on Earth, has experienced rapid urbanization which is one of the main causes of many environmental and ecological problems. Therefore, the monitoring of rapid urbanization regions and the environment is of critical importance for their sustainable development. In this study, the object-based classification is employed to detect the change of land cover in Shenzhen, which is located in South China and has been urbanized rapidly in recent three decades. First, four Landsat TM images, which were acquired on 1990, 2000 and 2010, respectively, are selected from the image database. Atmospheric corrections are conducted on these images with improved dark-object subtraction technique and surface meteorological observations. Geometric correction is processed with ground control points derived from topographic maps. Second, a region growing multi-resolution segmentation and a soft nearest neighbour classifier are used to finish object-based classification. After analyzing the fraction of difference classes over time series, we conclude that the comparison of derived land cover classes with socio-economic statistics demonstrates the strong positive correlation between built-up classes and urban population as well as gross GDP and GDPs in second and tertiary industries. Two different mechanisms of urbanization, namely new land development and redevelopment, are revealed. Consequently, we found that, the districts of Shenzhen were urbanized through different mechanisms.

  12. Using Field Experiments to Change the Template of How We Teach Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, John A.

    2014-01-01

    In this article, the author explains why field experiments can improve what we teach and how we teach economics. Economists no longer operate as passive observers of economic phenomena. Instead, they participate actively in the research process by collecting data from field experiments to investigate the economics of everyday life. This change can…

  13. The invisible college of the economics of innovation and technological change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verspagen, B.; Werker, C.

    2003-01-01

    The research area of the economics of innovation and technological change (EITC) has flourished over the past decades. While it was a relatively marginal field of economics in the 1950s and 1960s, the field has now grown to become a major part of economic analysis. Because many of the early scholars

  14. Engaging Chicago residents in climate change action: Results from Rapid Ethnographic Inquiry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynne M. Westphal; Jennifer. Hirsch

    2010-01-01

    Addressing climate change requires action at all levels of society, from neighborhood to international levels. Using Rapid Ethnography rooted in Asset Based Community Development theory, we investigated climate-friendly attitudes and behaviors in two Chicago neighborhoods in order to assist the City with implementation of its Climate Action Plan. Our research suggests...

  15. Computed tomographic demonstration of rapid changes in fatty infiltration of the liver

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bashist, B.; Hecht, H.L.; Harely, W.D.

    1982-01-01

    Two alcoholic patients in whom computed tomography (CT) demonstrated reversal of fatty infiltration of the liver are described. The rapid reversibility of fatty infiltration can be useful in monitoring alcoholics with fatty livers. Focal fatty infiltration can mimic focal hepatic lesions and repeat scans can be utilized to assess changes in CT attenuation values when this condition is suspected

  16. Biodiversity, Ecosystem Services, and Climate Change : The Economic Problem

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is both a cause and an effect of biodiversity change. Along with anthropogenic dispersion, climate change is the main driver of change in the geographical distribution of both beneficial and harmful species, crops, livestock, harvested wild species, pests, predators and pathogens. And the capacity of ecosystems to adapt to climate change depends on the diversity of species t...

  17. Economic reasons for not wanting a second child: Changes before and after the onset of the economic recession in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Fiori

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This study aims to understand changes in the fertility intentions of mothers residing in Italy before and after the onset of the economic recession. It focuses particularly on mothers with one child - a group whose intentions changed over the period - and especially on those who, before and after the economic crisis of 2007-2008, cite economic reasons for intending not to have a second child. Methods: The analysis uses data from the ISTAT sample survey on births and mothers and fits logistic regressions (for 2002 and 2012, with economic vs. other reasons for intending not to have a second child as the dependent variable, in order to compare the associated sociodemographic profiles of mothers for the two years. Results: In Italy, between 2002 and 2012, the fertility intentions of mothers with one child changed. The proportion intending to 'stop at one' increased, with more mothers giving economic constraints rather than personal preferences as their main reason for intending not to have another child. Moreover, socioeconomic differences among primiparous mothers reporting economic constraints as their main reason for intending not to have a second child narrowed, whereas age differences became more pronounced. Contribution: The study is one of the few that has examined the reasons behind fertility intentions, especially those of mothers intending not to have a second child. It shows that one important impact of the economic recession in Italy is that a greater proportion of primiparous mothers are now abandoning the two-child norm in response to adverse economic circumstances. As a consequence, Italy is likely to remain a low-fertility country for some time to come.

  18. Rapid economic growth leads to boost in NO2 pollution over India, as seen from space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilboll, Andreas; Richter, Andreas; Burrows, John P.

    2016-04-01

    Over the past decades, the Indian economy has been growing at an exceptional pace. This growth was induced and accompanied by a strong increase of the Indian population. Consequently, traffic, electricity consumption, and industrial production have soared over the past decades, leading to a strong increase in fuel consumption and thus pollutant emissions. Nitrogen oxides (NO+NO2) are a major component of anthropogenic air pollution, playing key part in reaction cycles leading to the formation of tropospheric ozone. They are mainly emitted by the combustion of fossil fuels; other sources include production by lightning, biomass burning, and microbial activity in soils. Since the mid-1990s, space-borne measurements of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) have been conducted by the GOME, SCIAMACHY, GOME-2, and OMI instruments. These instruments perform hyperspectral measurements of scattered and reflected sunlight. Their measurements are then analyzed using differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) to yield vertically integrated columnar trace gas abundances. Here, we will present the results of 20 years of NO2 measurements over the Indian subcontinent. After showing the spatial distribution of NO2 pollution over India, we will present time series for individual states and urban agglomerations. These time series will then be related to various indicators of economic development. Finally, we will highlight several instances where single industrial pollution sources and their development can clearly be identified from the NO2 maps and estimate their NO2 emissions.

  19. Rapid stress-induced transcriptomic changes in the brain depend on beta-adrenergic signaling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roszkowski, Martin; Manuella, Francesca; von Ziegler, Lukas; Durán-Pacheco, Gonzalo; Moreau, Jean-Luc; Mansuy, Isabelle M; Bohacek, Johannes

    2016-08-01

    Acute exposure to stressful experiences can rapidly increase anxiety and cause neuropsychiatric disorders. The effects of stress result in part from the release of neurotransmitters and hormones, which regulate gene expression in different brain regions. The fast neuroendocrine response to stress is largely mediated by norepinephrine (NE) and corticotropin releasing hormone (CRH), followed by a slower and more sustained release of corticosterone. While corticosterone is an important regulator of gene expression, it is not clear which stress-signals contribute to the rapid regulation of gene expression observed immediately after stress exposure. Here, we demonstrate in mice that 45 min after an acute swim stress challenge, large changes in gene expression occur across the transcriptome in the hippocampus, a region sensitive to the effects of stress. We identify multiple candidate genes that are rapidly and transiently altered in both males and females. Using a pharmacological approach, we show that most of these rapidly induced genes are regulated by NE through β-adrenergic receptor signaling. We find that CRH and corticosterone can also contribute to rapid changes in gene expression, although these effects appear to be restricted to fewer genes. These results newly reveal a widespread impact of NE on the transcriptome and identify novel genes associated with stress and adrenergic signaling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Social-Economic Foundation for Smooth Changes in Korea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Zaibang

    2012-01-01

    Chairman Kim Jong-il's death has sparked worldwide interest in the 'future direction of the D.P.R.K. political, economic, social and diplomatic policies. After all, as the youngest national leader in the world, Kim Jong-un has little experience, especially as he has been involved in national governance for such a very short time. Whether he earl unite all the high-level leaders of the ruling party, government and military and achieve a smooth transition in national political, economic and social life will affect the well-being of all Korean people, and the security and stability in the whole of Northeast Asia. However, a dispassionate analysis of North Korea's recent economic and social development may show that North Korea's future prospects may not be as gloomy as some people predict.

  1. The impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030, and the potential from rapid, inclusive and climate-informed development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozenberg, J.; Hallegatte, S.

    2016-12-01

    There is a consensus on the fact that poor people are more vulnerable to climate change than the rest of the population, but, until recently, few quantified estimates had been proposed and few frameworks existed to design policies for addressing the issue. In this paper, we analyze the impacts of climate change on poverty using micro-simulation approaches. We start from household surveys that describe the current distribution of income and occupations, we project these households into the future and we look at the impacts of climate change on people's income. To project households into the future, we explore a large range of assumptions on future demographic changes (including on education), technological changes, and socio-economic trends (including redistribution policies). This approach allows us to identify the main combination of factors that lead to fast poverty reduction, and the ones that lead to high climate change impacts on the poor. Identifying these factors is critical for designing efficient policies to protect the poorest from climate change impacts and making economic growth more inclusive. Conclusions are twofold. First, by 2030 climate change can have a large impact on poverty, with between 3 and 122 million more people in poverty, but climate change remains a secondary driver of poverty trends within this time horizon. Climate change impacts do not only affect the poorest: in 2030, the bottom 40 percent lose more than 4 percent of income in many countries. The regional hotspots are Sub-Saharan Africa and - to a lesser extent - India and the rest of South Asia. The most important channel through which climate change increases poverty is through agricultural income and food prices. Second, by 2030 and in the absence of surprises on climate impacts, inclusive climate-informed development can prevent most of (but not all) the impacts on poverty. In a scenario with rapid, inclusive and climate-proof development, climate change impact on poverty is

  2. Socio-economic changes, social capital and implications for climate change in a changing rural Nepal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Byg, Anja; Herslund, Lise Byskov

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the use of social capital in the form of social ties in the face of commercialization, urbanization and climate change. While discussions of social capital often focus on whether people possess certain social ties or not our study shows that it is also necessary to consider under...... people have engaged in high-input agriculture, business and paid employment. Diversification of livelihoods has made many people less sensitive to climate change, but this does not translate into decreased vulnerability for the community. Intensive agriculture and lower community cohesion seems...... unsustainable in the long run. Thus, decreased vulnerability at the household level may come at the price of increased vulnerability at higher levels and negative consequences for the wider social–ecological system. Evaluating vulnerability and the role of social ties depends on the unit and sector of analysis...

  3. Novel HPTLC and UV-AUC analyses: For simple, economical, and rapid determination of Zileuton racemate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saurabh B. Ganorkar

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Novel, simple, rapid and reliable High-Performance Thin-Layer Chromatographic (HPTLC and UV-spectroscopic area under curve (UV-AUC methods were developed and validated for the analysis of zileuton racemate in bulk and in in-house tablet formulation. HPTLC quantitation of zileuton was done by UV detection at 260 nm and analysis was performed on (20 × 10 cm aluminium sheets precoated with silica gel 60-F254 (E. Merck as stationary phase and toluene–methanol–glacial acetic acid (3.5:1.5:0.1 v/v as mobile phase. Quantitation by HPTLC method was performed over the concentration range of 200–1200 ng/band. The HPTLC method resulted into a compact and well resolved band for zileuton at retention factor (Rf of 0.51 ± 0.02. Linear regression analysis data for calibration of HPTLC method represented a good linear relationship with regression coefficient; r2 = 0.997. UV-AUC method was developed using sodium lauryl sulphate (0.05 M as a hydrotropic agent to enhance water solubility and area was determined at a wavelength range in between 248.40 and 271.0 nm. Correlation coefficient for UV-AUC analysis was found to be r2 = 0.999. The developed UV-AUC method depicted a fine linear relationship for zileuton racemate in a concentration range of 2–12 μg/mL. Both the developed methods were validated for precision, robustness, ruggedness, accuracy, sensitivity as per guidelines laid by the International Conference on Harmonisation (ICH. Statistical analysis proved that the developed methods were precise, robust, sensitive and accurate and can be used effectively for the analysis of zileuton in bulk and pharmaceutical formulations.

  4. A bioinspired color-changing polystyrene microarray as a rapid qualitative sensor for methanol and ethanol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuo, Wen-Kai; Weng, Hsueh-Ping; Hsu, Jyun-Jheng; Yu, Hsin Her

    2016-01-01

    Polystyrene (PS) microspheres were synthesized by emulsifier-free emulsion polymerization and arranged in an array of closely packed, opal-like photonic crystals by slow self-assembly through dip-coating. This periodic array of PS microspheres was then employed as a rapid qualitative sensor for methanol and ethanol. Both solvents could be detected rapidly based on the routes of their reflection coordinates in the chromaticity diagram or directly by the naked eye on the basis of the change in color within 1 min once a solvent sample had been placed on the PS photochromic sensor. This opal-like PS sensor can thus not only be employed as a rapid sensor for methanol and ethanol but can also be used as a powerful tool for the fast screening of illicit drugs and toxic chemicals during forensic investigations. - Highlights: • Opal-like array of polystyrene (PS) microspheres is synthesized by self-assembly. • This periodic PS array is used as a rapid sensor for methanol and ethanol. • Solvents are detected by routes of reflection coordinates in chromaticity diagram. • They are also detected directly by naked eye based on change in color of sensor. • The color change is irreversible for methanol but reversible for ethanol.

  5. A bioinspired color-changing polystyrene microarray as a rapid qualitative sensor for methanol and ethanol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuo, Wen-Kai, E-mail: wkkuo@nfu.edu.tw [Graduate Institute of Electro-Optical and Materials Science, National Formosa University, 64 Wenhua Road, Huwei, Yunlin 63208, Taiwan (China); Weng, Hsueh-Ping, E-mail: sherry.weng7949@gmail.com [Graduate Institute of Electro-Optical and Materials Science, National Formosa University, 64 Wenhua Road, Huwei, Yunlin 63208, Taiwan (China); Hsu, Jyun-Jheng, E-mail: k88520x@gmail.com [Graduate Institute of Electro-Optical and Materials Science, National Formosa University, 64 Wenhua Road, Huwei, Yunlin 63208, Taiwan (China); Yu, Hsin Her, E-mail: hhyu@nfu.edu.tw [Department of Biotechnology, National Formosa University, 64 Wenhua Road, Huwei, Yunlin 63208, Taiwan (China)

    2016-04-15

    Polystyrene (PS) microspheres were synthesized by emulsifier-free emulsion polymerization and arranged in an array of closely packed, opal-like photonic crystals by slow self-assembly through dip-coating. This periodic array of PS microspheres was then employed as a rapid qualitative sensor for methanol and ethanol. Both solvents could be detected rapidly based on the routes of their reflection coordinates in the chromaticity diagram or directly by the naked eye on the basis of the change in color within 1 min once a solvent sample had been placed on the PS photochromic sensor. This opal-like PS sensor can thus not only be employed as a rapid sensor for methanol and ethanol but can also be used as a powerful tool for the fast screening of illicit drugs and toxic chemicals during forensic investigations. - Highlights: • Opal-like array of polystyrene (PS) microspheres is synthesized by self-assembly. • This periodic PS array is used as a rapid sensor for methanol and ethanol. • Solvents are detected by routes of reflection coordinates in chromaticity diagram. • They are also detected directly by naked eye based on change in color of sensor. • The color change is irreversible for methanol but reversible for ethanol.

  6. Teachers' Stories of Change: Stress, Care and Economic Rationality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easthope, Chris; Easthope, Gary

    2007-01-01

    The impact of economic rationalism on teachers' working lives has been documented extensively, particularly in the UK. This article provides a case study of its impact in the early 1990s in a small Australian state, Tasmania, to illustrate that although the particular institutional forms through which it is expressed may differ its impact is…

  7. Changing the Rules of the Game: Indigenous Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamson, Rebecca

    1995-01-01

    Rebecca Adamson, president and founder of First Nations Development Institute, compares the values of traditional American Indian economies that stress sustainability and limited inequalities among society members with the deficiencies of the Western economic system. Discusses First Nations Development Institute's view of Indian gaming and how it…

  8. Economic essays on privacy, big data, and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dengler, Sebastian

    2017-01-01

    This doctoral thesis aims to advance our understanding of major topics of concern in the 21st century using theoretical as well as empirical economic methodologies. All three topics do and will continue to affect people’s lives as they can substantially shape the functioning of our societies.

  9. Population growth, economic security, and cultural change in wilderness counties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul A. Lorah

    2000-01-01

    A familiar version of the “jobs versus the environment” argument asserts that wilderness areas limit economic growth by locking up potentially productive natural resources. Analysis of the development paths of rural Western counties shows that this is unlikely: the presence of Wilderness is correlated with income, employment and population growth. Similarly, Wilderness...

  10. Rapid Cultural Change: A Case Study of Polyandry Marriage System among the Gurung Community from Upper Mustang, Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juddha Bahadur Gurung

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Nepal is multi ethnic, multi lingual and multi cultural country. In Upper Mustang polyandry is practiced by Loba communities. However, the condition of polyandry is dying out at present. The young are not in favor of this system. Socio-economic, political, seasonal migration, tourism and developmental factors have played crucial role in this regards. From conservation perspective polyandry played crucial role to manage local resources and in population dynamics in the past. This paper is based on field survey carried out in two different time periods (1998 and 2008 in order to compare or understand changing pattern of polyandry. In last couple of years, polyandry system has changed very rapidly in Loba communities of Upper Mustang. Rising community awareness, multiple economic opportunities, improve communication, foreign employment, modern education, open tourism, road access and other visual and in visual forces has lead society from close to open and more wider side or increase the horizon of young generation. Polyandry system is directly affected. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/dsaj.v6i0.8480 Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology Vol. 6, 2012 75-106

  11. Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, Francisco; Tol, Richard S J; Botzen, Wouter J W

    2017-01-01

    Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be attributed to natural variability factors and to the anthropogenic intervention with the climate system in general tend to show that: 1) during the first half of the century, the amplitude of the impacts associated with natural variability is considerably larger than that produced by anthropogenic factors and the effects of natural variability fluctuated between being negative and positive. These non-monotonic impacts are mostly determined by the low-frequency variability and the persistence of the climate system; 2) IAMs do not agree on the sign (nor on the magnitude) of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing but indicate that they steadily grew over the first part of the century, rapidly accelerated since the mid 1970's, and decelerated during the first decade of the 21st century. This deceleration is accentuated by the existence of interaction effects between natural variability and natural and anthropogenic forcing. The economic impacts of anthropogenic forcing range in the tenths of percentage of the world GDP by the end of the 20th century; 3) the impacts of natural forcing are about one order of magnitude lower than those associated with anthropogenic forcing and are dominated by the solar forcing; 4) the interaction effects between natural and anthropogenic factors can importantly modulate how impacts actually occur, at least for moderate increases in external forcing. Human activities became dominant drivers of the estimated economic impacts at the end of the 20th century, producing larger impacts than those of low-frequency natural variability. Some of the uses and limitations of IAMs are discussed.

  12. Challenges to socio-economic research in a changing society - with a special focus on Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poppel, Birger; Rasmussen, Rasmus Ole; Winther, Gorm

    2005-01-01

    The process of changes in Arctic societies has been from a cultural order to an economic order, and from a closed society based on barter and subsistence to a society based on economic exchange through monetary means. Consequently, understanding the currents of change requires a definite focus...

  13. Does Rapid and Sustained Economic Growth Lead to Convergence in Health Resources: The Case of China From 1980 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Di; Zhang, Donglan; Huang, Jiayan; Schweitzer, Stuart

    2016-01-01

    China's rapid and sustained economic growth offers an opportunity to ask whether the advantages of growth diffuse throughout an economy, or remain localized in areas where the growth has been the greatest. A critical policy area in China has been the health system, and health inequality has become an issue that has led the government to broaden national health insurance programs. This study investigates whether health system resources and performance have converged over the past 30 years across China's 31 provinces. To examine geographic variation of health system resources and performance at the provincial level, we measure the degree of sigma convergence and beta convergence in indicators of health system resources (structure), health services utilization (process), and outcome. All data are from officially published sources: the China Health Statistics Year Book and the China Statistics Year Book. Sigma convergence is found for resource indicators, whereas it is not observed for either process or outcome indicators, indicating that disparities only narrowed in health system resources. Beta convergence is found in most indicators, except for 2 procedure indicators, reflecting that provinces with poorer resources were catching up. Convergence found in this study probably reflects the mixed outcome of government input, and market forces. Thus, left alone, the equitable distribution of health care resources may not occur naturally during a period of economic growth. Governmental and societal efforts are needed to reduce geographic health variation and promote health equity. © The Author(s) 2016.

  14. Rapid Hip Osteoarthritis Development in a Patient with Anterior Acetabular Cyst with Sagittal Alignment Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasuhiro Homma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Rapidly destructive coxarthrosis (RDC is rare and develops unusual clinical course. Recent studies suggest multiple possible mechanisms of the development of RDC. However the exact mechanism of RDC is still not clear. The difficulty of the study on RDC is attributed to its rareness and the fact that the data before the onset of RDC is normally unavailable. In this report, we presented the patient having the radiographic data before the onset who had rapid osteoarthritis (OA development after contralateral THA, which meets the current criteria of RDC. We thought that the increased posterior tilt of the pelvis after THA reinforced the stress concentration at pre-existed anterior acetabular cyst, thereby the destruction of the cyst was occurred. As a result the rapid OA was developed. We think that there is the case of rapid osteoarthritis developing due to alternating load concentration by posterior pelvic tilt on preexisting anterior acetabular cyst such as our patient among the cases diagnosed as RDC without any identifiable etiology. The recognition of sagittal alignment changes and anterior acetabular cyst may play important role in prediction and prevention of the rapid hip osteoarthritis development similar to RDC.

  15. Rapid change of field line connectivity and reconnection in stochastic magnetic fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Yi-Min; Bhattacharjee, A.; Boozer, Allen H.

    2014-01-01

    Magnetic fields without a direction of continuous symmetry have the generic feature that neighboring field lines exponentiate away from each other and become stochastic, and hence the ideal constraint of preserving magnetic field line connectivity becomes exponentially sensitive to small deviations from ideal Ohm's law. The idea of breaking field line connectivity by stochasticity as a mechanism for fast reconnection is tested with numerical simulations based on reduced magnetohydrodynamics equations with a strong guide field line-tied to two perfectly conducting end plates. Starting from an ideally stable force-free equilibrium, the system is allowed to undergo resistive relaxation. Two distinct phases are found in the process of resistive relaxation. During the quasi-static phase, rapid change of field line connectivity and strong induced flow are found in regions of high field line exponentiation. However, although the field line connectivity of individual field lines can change rapidly, the overall pattern of field line mapping appears to deform gradually. From this perspective, field line exponentiation appears to cause enhanced diffusion rather than reconnection. In some cases, resistive quasi-static evolution can cause the ideally stable initial equilibrium to cross a stability threshold, leading to formation of intense current filaments and rapid change of field line mapping into a qualitatively different pattern. It is in this onset phase that the change of field line connectivity is more appropriately designated as magnetic reconnection. Our results show that rapid change of field line connectivity appears to be a necessary, but not a sufficient condition for fast reconnection.

  16. How community-level social and economic developments have changed the patterns of substance use in a transition economy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaozhao Y

    2017-07-01

    Most social changes take place at the community level before indirectly affecting individuals. Although the contextual effect is far-reaching, few studies have investigated the important questions of: how do community-level developments affect drinking and smoking, and how do they change the existing gender and income patterns of drinking and smoking, particularly in transition economies? In this study, I used a Chinese panel dataset between 1991 and 2011 to reveal the moderating effects of community developments. Through multilevel growth curve modeling that controls for age, period, and cohort effects, as well as individual- and community-level covariates, I found that community-level economic development and social development are negatively associated with drinking and smoking. Moreover, economic and social developments also moderate the important influences of income and gender: women start to drink more in communities with higher economic development; the traditionally positive association between income and smoking/drinking is also reversed, i.e. the rich start to smoke and drink less in communities with higher social development. This study concludes that the rapid changes in communal social and economic structures have created new health disparities based on the gender and socioeconomic hierarchy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Effects of high latitude protected areas on bird communities under rapid climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santangeli, Andrea; Rajasärkkä, Ari; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

    2017-06-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is rapidly becoming one of the main threats to biodiversity, along with other threats triggered by human-driven land-use change. Species are already responding to climate change by shifting their distributions polewards. This shift may create a spatial mismatch between dynamic species distributions and static protected areas (PAs). As protected areas represent one of the main pillars for preserving biodiversity today and in the future, it is important to assess their contribution in sheltering the biodiversity communities, they were designated to protect. A recent development to investigate climate-driven impacts on biological communities is represented by the community temperature index (CTI). CTI provides a measure of the relative temperature average of a community in a specific assemblage. CTI value will be higher for assemblages dominated by warm species compared with those dominated by cold-dwelling species. We here model changes in the CTI of Finnish bird assemblages, as well as changes in species densities, within and outside of PAs during the past four decades in a large boreal landscape under rapid change. We show that CTI has markedly increased over time across Finland, with this change being similar within and outside PAs and five to seven times slower than the temperature increase. Moreover, CTI has been constantly lower within than outside of PAs, and PAs still support communities, which show colder thermal index than those outside of PAs in the 1970s and 1980s. This result can be explained by the higher relative density of northern species within PAs than outside. Overall, our results provide some, albeit inconclusive, evidence that PAs may play a role in supporting the community of northern species. Results also suggest that communities are, however, shifting rapidly, both inside and outside of PAs, highlighting the need for adjusting conservation measures before it is too late. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. New type of Piezoresistive Pressure Sensors for Environments with Rapidly Changing Temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tykhan Myroslav

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The theoretical aspects of a new type of piezo-resistive pressure sensors for environments with rapidly changing temperatures are presented. The idea is that the sensor has two identical diaphragms which have different coefficients of linear thermal expansion. Therefore, when measuring pressure in environments with variable temperature, the diaphragms will have different deflection. This difference can be used to make appropriate correction of the sensor output signal and, thus, to increase accuracy of measurement. Since physical principles of sensors operation enable fast correction of the output signal, the sensor can be used in environments with rapidly changing temperature, which is its essential advantage. The paper presents practical implementation of the proposed theoretical aspects and the results of testing the developed sensor.

  19. [Stress management in the workplace in the era of industrial and economic change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagata, S

    2000-11-01

    The globalization of the economy and the recent economic recession in Japan has accelerated down-sizing or restructuring of corporations and has resulted in the induction of a wage system according to achievement instead of the traditional seniority wage system, break-down of the life-long employment system, excess labor and increased unemployment. These rapid changes in the labor situation have increased job stress. It was reported in the survey conducted by the Ministry of Labor in 1997 that 62.8 percent of 16,000 workers had anxiety, worry and stress regarding their working life. The need for effective stress management at work has been increasing in this situation, but in the survey mentioned above only 26.5 percent of 12,000 companies replied that they had incorporated mental health measures. The characteristic features of the approaches for stress management in Japan are summarized as follows: 1) The most popular approaches are education and consultation for individual workers. 2) Systematic preventive approaches such as work control, working environment control, organizational change in the health management system, and systematic and continuous educational programs for managers are inadequate. 3) Systems to evaluation the effectiveness of these interventional approaches are also inadequate. Considering the current situation in which there is increasing job stress and a need for the occupational mental health promotion, we propose a series of mini-reviews regarding stress management at work and mention the composition of this series.

  20. Environmental impacts of rapid water level changes; Miljoekonsekvenser av raske vannstandsendringer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnekleiv, Jo Vegar; Bakken, Tor Haakon; Bogen, Jim; Boensnes, Truls Erik; Elster, Margrethe; Harby, Atle; Kutznetsova, Yulia; Saltveit, Svein Jakob; Sauterleute, Julian; Stickler, Morten; Sundt, Haakon; Tjomsland, Torulv; Ugedal, Ola

    2012-07-01

    This report summarizes the state of knowledge of the environmental impacts of power driving and rapid water level changes and describes possible mitigation measures. The report assesses the environmental effects of possible increased power installation in Mauranger and Tonstad power plants, based on existing data and knowledge. At Straumsmo plants in Barduelva there are collected some physical data and the environmental impact of existing power driving is considered. (eb)

  1. Scale interactions in economics: application to the evaluation of the economic damages of climatic change and of extreme events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallegatte, S.

    2005-06-01

    Growth models, which neglect economic disequilibria, considered as temporary, are in general used to evaluate the damaging effects generated by climatic change. This work shows, through a series of modeling experiences, the importance of disequilibria and of endogenous variability of economy in the evaluation of damages due to extreme events and climatic change. It demonstrates the impossibility to separate the evaluation of damages from the representation of growth and of economic dynamics: the comfort losses will depend on both the nature and intensity of impacts and on the dynamics and situation of the economy to which they will apply. Thus, the uncertainties about the damaging effects of future climatic changes come from both scientific uncertainties and from uncertainties about the future organization of our economies. (J.S.)

  2. Economic conditions of technical changes in world civil air transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanna HAWLENA

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The world economic environment of the turn of the century produced many new challenges to civil aviation in expectation of a continued growth in the transportation of passengers and cargo. To meet this growing demand, it will be necessary to increase the fleet and to modernise infrastructure – a process hampered by finances and capacity constraints.Such constraints are especially pressing with regard to the acquisition of new types of large aircraft such as the Airbus A380 and the Boeing 787 and 747-8. Future dominance of the market is, however, difficult to predict, as this will be the outcome of a combination of uncertain parameters.

  3. Transnational Corporations, Socio-economic Change and Recurrent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murphy, Jonathan; Ackroyd, Stephen

    2013-01-01

    of financial institutions including private equity and hedge funds, and the effects of these on the various policies and priorities of the executive leaders of large businesses in such areas as human resource management and the adoption of new organisational forms. The discussion extends to the consideration......Purpose – The paper's aim is to consider the effects of recurrent economic crisis on the management and organisational structures of transnational companies based in the UK by considering contemporary evidence and scholarly views of the processes involved, and especially to consider...

  4. Observation of reversible, rapid changes in drug susceptibility of hypoxic tumor cells in a microfluidic device

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Germain, Todd; Ansari, Megan; Pappas, Dimitri, E-mail: d.pappas@ttu.edu

    2016-09-14

    Hypoxia is a major stimulus for increased drug resistance and for survival of tumor cells. Work from our group and others has shown that hypoxia increases resistance to anti-cancer compounds, radiation, and other damage-pathway cytotoxic agents. In this work we utilize a microfluidic culture system capable of rapid switching of local oxygen concentrations to determine changes in drug resistance in prostate cancer cells. We observed rapid adaptation to hypoxia, with drug resistance to 2 μM staurosporine established within 30 min of hypoxia. Annexin-V/Sytox Green apoptosis assays over 9 h showed 78.0% viability, compared to 84.5% viability in control cells (normoxic cells with no staurosporine). Normoxic cells exposed to the same staurosporine concentration had a viability of 48.6% after 9 h. Hypoxia adaptation was rapid and reversible, with Hypoxic cells treated with 20% oxygen for 30 min responding to staurosporine with 51.6% viability after drug treatment for 9 h. Induction of apoptosis through the receptor-mediated pathway, which bypasses anti-apoptosis mechanisms induced by hypoxia, resulted in 39.4 ± 7% cell viability. The rapid reversibility indicates co-treatment of oxygen with anti-cancer compounds may be a potential therapeutic target. - Highlights: • Microfluidic system switches rapidly between normoxia and hypoxia (5 min). • Observation of rapid adaptation of PC3 cells to hypoxia and normoxia (30 min). • Drug susceptibility in tumor cells restored after chip switched to normoxia for 30 min.

  5. Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Africa | Igbokwe ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper examined the arguments for and against the climate change phenomenon and attempted to weigh in with presentation of available evidence. It finally drew from literature and reviewed possible impacts of climate change in Africa. It concluded by calling for a wakening and preparedness by African governments ...

  6. FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC STRUCTURE AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN REGIONAL ECONOMIES: A METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Sudhir K. THAKUR

    2011-01-01

    Regional economic structure is defined as the composition and patterns of various components of the regional economy such as: produc-tion, employment, consumption, trade, and gross regional product. Structur-al change is conceptualized as the change in relative importance of the aggregate indicators of the economy. The process of regional development and structural change are intertwined, implying as economic development takes place the strength and direction of intersectoral relationships ch...

  7. RAPID SPECTRAL CHANGES OF CYGNUS X-1 IN THE LOW/HARD STATE WITH SUZAKU

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamada, S.; Makishima, K. [Cosmic Radiation Laboratory, Institute of Physical and Chemical Research (RIKEN), Wako, Saitama 351-0198 (Japan); Negoro, H. [Department of Physics, College of Science and Technology, Nihon University, 1-8 Kanda-Surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8308 (Japan); Torii, S.; Noda, H. [Department of Physics, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Mineshige, S. [Department of Astronomy, Kyoto University, Kitashirakawa Oiwake-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8502 (Japan)

    2013-04-20

    Rapid spectral changes in the hard X-ray on a timescale down to {approx}0.1 s are studied by applying a ''shot analysis'' technique to the Suzaku observations of the black hole binary Cygnus X-1, performed on 2008 April 18 during the low/hard state. We successfully obtained the shot profiles, covering 10-200 keV with the Suzaku HXD-PIN and HXD-GSO detector. It is notable that the 100-200 keV shot profile is acquired for the first time owing to the HXD-GSO detector. The intensity changes in a time-symmetric way, though the hardness changes in a time-asymmetric way. When the shot-phase-resolved spectra are quantified with the Compton model, the Compton y-parameter and the electron temperature are found to decrease gradually through the rising phase of the shot, while the optical depth appears to increase. All the parameters return to their time-averaged values immediately within 0.1 s past the shot peak. We have not only confirmed this feature previously found in energies below {approx}60 keV, but also found that the spectral change is more prominent in energies above {approx}100 keV, implying the existence of some instant mechanism for direct entropy production. We discuss possible interpretations of the rapid spectral changes in the hard X-ray band.

  8. [Developmental changes of rapid automatized naming and Hiragana reading of Japanese in elementary-school children].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Tomoka; Inagaki, Masumi; Gunji, Atsuko; Yatabe, Kiyomi; Kita, Yosuke; Kaga, Makiko; Gotoh, Takaaki; Koike, Toshihide

    2011-11-01

    Two hundred and seven Japanese elementary school children aged from 6 (Grade 1) to 12 (Grade 6) years old were tested for their abilities to name numbers and pictured objects along with reading Hiragana characters and words. These children all showed typical development and their classroom teachers judged that they were not having any problems with reading or writing. The children were randomly divided into two groups, the first group was assigned to two naming tasks;the rapid automatized naming (RAN) of "numbers" and "pictured objects," the second group was assigned to two rapid alternative stimulus (RAS) naming tasks using numbers and pictured objects. All children were asked to perform two reading tasks that were written in Hiragana script: single mora reading task and four syllable word reading task. The total articulation time for naming and reading and performance in terms of accuracy were measured for each task. Developmental changes in these variables were evaluated. The articulation time was significantly longer for the first graders, and it gradually shortened as they moved through to the upper grades in all tasks. The articulation time reached a plateau in the 5th grade for the number naming, while gradual change continued after drastic change in the lower grades for the pictured object naming. The articulation times for the single mora reading and RAN of numbers correlated strongly. The articulation time for the RAS naming was significantly longer compared to that for the RAN, though there were very few errors. The RAS naming showed the highest correlation with the four syllable word reading. This study demonstrated that the performance in rapid automatized naming of numbers and pictures were closely related with performance on reading tasks. Thus Japanese children with reading disorders such as developmental dyslexia should also be evaluated for rapid automatized naming.

  9. Anticipating the uncertain: economic modeling and climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Svenn

    2012-11-01

    With this thesis I wish to contribute to the understanding of how uncertainty and the anticipation of future events by economic actors affect climate policies. The thesis consists of four papers. Two papers are analytical models which explicitly consider that emissions are caused by extracting scarce fossil fuels which in the future must be replaced by clean technologies. The other two are so called numerical integrated assessment models. Such models represent the world economy, the climate system and the interactions between those two quantitatively, complementing more abstract theoretical work. Should policy makers discriminate between subsidizing renewable energy sources such as wind or solar power, and technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS)? Focusing only on the dynamic supply of fossil fuels and hence Co{sub 2}, we find here that cheaper future renewables cause extraction to speed up, lower costs of CCS may delay it. CCS hence may dampen the dynamic inefficiency caused by the absence of comprehensive climate policies today. Does it matter whether uncertainty about future damage assessment is due to scientific complexities or stems from the political process? In paper two, I find that political and scientific uncertainties have opposing effects on the incentives to investment in renewables and the extraction of fossil fuels: The prospect of scientific learning about the climate system increases investment incentives and, ceteris paribus, slows extraction down; uncertainty about future political constellations does the opposite. The optimal carbon tax under scientific uncertainty equals expected marginal damages, whereas political uncertainty demands a tax below marginal damages that decreases over time. Does uncertainty about economic growth impact optimal climate policy today? Here we are the first to consistently analyze how uncertainty about future economic growth affects optimal emission reductions and the optimal social cost of carbon. We

  10. Observation of reversible, rapid changes in drug susceptibility of hypoxic tumor cells in a microfluidic device.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germain, Todd; Ansari, Megan; Pappas, Dimitri

    2016-09-14

    Hypoxia is a major stimulus for increased drug resistance and for survival of tumor cells. Work from our group and others has shown that hypoxia increases resistance to anti-cancer compounds, radiation, and other damage-pathway cytotoxic agents. In this work we utilize a microfluidic culture system capable of rapid switching of local oxygen concentrations to determine changes in drug resistance in prostate cancer cells. We observed rapid adaptation to hypoxia, with drug resistance to 2 μM staurosporine established within 30 min of hypoxia. Annexin-V/Sytox Green apoptosis assays over 9 h showed 78.0% viability, compared to 84.5% viability in control cells (normoxic cells with no staurosporine). Normoxic cells exposed to the same staurosporine concentration had a viability of 48.6% after 9 h. Hypoxia adaptation was rapid and reversible, with Hypoxic cells treated with 20% oxygen for 30 min responding to staurosporine with 51.6% viability after drug treatment for 9 h. Induction of apoptosis through the receptor-mediated pathway, which bypasses anti-apoptosis mechanisms induced by hypoxia, resulted in 39.4 ± 7% cell viability. The rapid reversibility indicates co-treatment of oxygen with anti-cancer compounds may be a potential therapeutic target. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Contradictions among economic development, climate changes and nuclear renaissance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dias, Marcio Soares; Mattos, Joao Roberto Loureiro de

    2008-01-01

    The climate variations are near the dangerous limits requesting the coordinated actions from the countries which are researching the stabilization for the atmospheric concentration of the carbon dioxide, and the mitigation of the global heating. During thousand years the mankind development have been determined by the capacity of using energy for the production of goods and services, and the mankind welfare itself. For millennia, this capacity has been contained and totally attended in the process of organic based fuel burning. Presently, the non sustainable standard of supplying and worldwide energy use is questioned in the framework of own definition of the human economic development and welfare. The world needs a global energetic revolution, involving the nuclear and renewable energies able to completely transform the way we use to produce and use energy, even though that revolution brings internal contradictions and review of established concepts

  12. STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION FROM MEXICO AND POLAND

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massey, Douglas S.; Kalter, Frank; Pren, Karen A.

    2010-01-01

    In this article we use uniquely comparable data sets from two very different settings to examine how exogenous economic transformations affect the likelihood and selectivity of international out-migration. Specifically, we use data from the Mexican Migration Project to construct event history files predicting first U.S. trips from seven communities in the state of Veracruz, which until recently sent very few migrants abroad. Similarly, using data from the Polish Migration Project, we derive comparable event history files predicting first trips to Germany from four Polish communities, which also sent few migrants abroad before the 1980s. Our analyses suggest that the onset of structural adjustment in both places had a significant effect in raising the probability of international migration, even when controlling for a set of standard variables specified by other theories to influence migration propensity, such as the size of the binational income gap and various indicators of human and social capital. PMID:21765550

  13. Specialists meeting on design and assessment of instrumentation and control systems in NPP coping with rapid technological change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-10-01

    A transition from analogue to computer based I and C (instrumentation and control) systems in nuclear power plants enabled the industry not only to make use of advantages of computers for the control of technological processes, but also transferred the unusual short innovation cycles in computer technology to become a constraint on the process I and C. This situation led the IAEA to provide an international forum for the presentation and discussion of the problems and organize a Specialists` Meeting in the framework of the International Working Group on Nuclear Power Plant Control and Instrumentation. The basic objective was to elaborate the management, engineering and economic problems arising from rapid technological changes, to point out solutions and to discuss the future trends in the field. The Year 2000 Issue was also inside the scope of the Meeting. Typical problems were technology changes provoking major I and C concept changes, spare part availability, compatibility in refurbishment processes. The present document contains the papers presented by national delegates, each with an abstract, and the conclusions drawn from the final discussion Refs, figs, tabs

  14. Specialists meeting on design and assessment of instrumentation and control systems in NPP coping with rapid technological change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-10-01

    A transition from analogue to computer based I and C (instrumentation and control) systems in nuclear power plants enabled the industry not only to make use of advantages of computers for the control of technological processes, but also transferred the unusual short innovation cycles in computer technology to become a constraint on the process I and C. This situation led the IAEA to provide an international forum for the presentation and discussion of the problems and organize a Specialists' Meeting in the framework of the International Working Group on Nuclear Power Plant Control and Instrumentation. The basic objective was to elaborate the management, engineering and economic problems arising from rapid technological changes, to point out solutions and to discuss the future trends in the field. The Year 2000 Issue was also inside the scope of the Meeting. Typical problems were technology changes provoking major I and C concept changes, spare part availability, compatibility in refurbishment processes. The present document contains the papers presented by national delegates, each with an abstract, and the conclusions drawn from the final discussion

  15. Definition of the "economic security of strategic changes at an enterprise" notion

    OpenAIRE

    Otenko Iryna Pavlivna; Iartym Irina A.

    2014-01-01

    Availability of a multitude of approaches to management of economic security of an enterprise and systemisation of their provisions allow development of a conceptual framework by means of identification of the essence of the “enterprise economic security” notion in the context of development processes management. The article shows that essence and composition of the “economic security of strategic changes of an enterprise” notion should not only take into account the set of views and methods ...

  16. On the macro-economic impacts of climate change under informational failures

    OpenAIRE

    CAO, Ruixuan; Gohin, Alexandre

    2012-01-01

    Although the sources, extent and physical impacts of the future climate change are highly uncertain, available dynamic economic assessments implicitly assume that economic agents perfectly know them. Perfect foresight, rational expectations or active learning are standard assumptions underlying simulated results. To the contrary, this paper builds on the assumption that economic agents may suffer for a while from limited knowledge about the average and variability of physical impa...

  17. Evolution under changing climates: climatic niche stasis despite rapid evolution in a non-native plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Jake M

    2013-09-22

    A topic of great current interest is the capacity of populations to adapt genetically to rapidly changing climates, for example by evolving the timing of life-history events, but this is challenging to address experimentally. I use a plant invasion as a model system to tackle this question by combining molecular markers, a common garden experiment and climatic niche modelling. This approach reveals that non-native Lactuca serriola originates primarily from Europe, a climatic subset of its native range, with low rates of admixture from Asia. It has rapidly refilled its climatic niche in the new range, associated with the evolution of flowering phenology to produce clines along climate gradients that mirror those across the native range. Consequently, some non-native plants have evolved development times and grow under climates more extreme than those found in Europe, but not among populations from the native range as a whole. This suggests that many plant populations can adapt rapidly to changed climatic conditions that are already within the climatic niche space occupied by the species elsewhere in its range, but that evolution to conditions outside of this range is more difficult. These findings can also help to explain the prevalence of niche conservatism among non-native species.

  18. More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries

    2013-02-01

    Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change.

  19. Rapid area change in pitch-up manoeuvres of small perching birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polet, D T; Rival, D E

    2015-10-26

    Rapid pitch-up has been highlighted as a mechanism to generate large lift and drag during landing manoeuvres. However, pitching rates had not been measured previously in perching birds, and so the direct applicability of computations and experiments to observed behaviour was not known. We measure pitch rates in a small, wild bird (the black-capped chickadee; Poecile atricapillus), and show that these rates are within the parameter range used in experiments. Pitching rates were characterized by the shape change number, a metric comparing the rate of frontal area increase to acceleration. Black-capped chickadees increase the shape change number during perching in direct proportion to their total kinetic and potential energy at the start of the manoeuvre. The linear relationship between dissipated energy and shape change number is in accordance with a simple analytical model developed for two-dimensional pitching and decelerating airfoils. Black-capped chickadees use a wing pitch-up manoeuvre during perching to dissipate energy quickly while maintaining lift and drag through rapid area change. It is suggested that similar pitch-and-decelerate manoeuvres could be used to aid in the controlled, precise landings of small manoeuvrable air vehicles.

  20. Socio-Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heberger, M. G.; Cooley, H.; Moore, E.; Garzon, C.

    2011-12-01

    The western United States faces a range of impacts from global climate change, including increases in extreme heat, wildfires, and coastal flooding and erosion; changes are also likely to occur in air quality, water availability, and the spread of infectious diseases. To date, a great deal of research has been done to forecast the physical effects of climate change, while less attention has been given to the factors make different populations more or less vulnerable to harm from such changes. For example, mortality rates from Hurricane Audrey, which struck the coast of Louisiana in 1957, were more than eight times higher among blacks than among whites. While disaster events may not discriminate, impacts on human populations are shaped by "intervening conditions" that determine the human impact of the flood and the specific needs for preparedness, response, and recovery. In this study, we analyze the potential impacts of climate change by using recent downscaled climate model outputs, creating a variety of statistics and visualizations to communicate potential impacts to community groups and decision makers, after several meetings with these groups to ask, "What types of information are most useful to you for planning?" We relate climate impacts to social vulnerability - defined as the intersection of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of a person or group of people - with a focus on the U.S. state of California. Understanding vulnerability factors and the populations that exhibit these factors are critical for crafting effective climate change policies and response strategies. It is also important to the emerging study of climate justice, which is the concept that no group of people should disproportionately bear the burden of climate impacts or the costs of mitigation and adaptation.

  1. Rapidly reversible redox transformation in nanophase manganese oxides at room temperature triggered by changes in hydration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkner, Nancy; Navrotsky, Alexandra

    2014-04-29

    Chemisorption of water onto anhydrous nanophase manganese oxide surfaces promotes rapidly reversible redox phase changes as confirmed by calorimetry, X-ray diffraction, and titration for manganese average oxidation state. Surface reduction of bixbyite (Mn2O3) to hausmannite (Mn3O4) occurs in nanoparticles under conditions where no such reactions are seen or expected on grounds of bulk thermodynamics in coarse-grained materials. Additionally, transformation does not occur on nanosurfaces passivated by at least 2% coverage of what is likely an amorphous manganese oxide layer. The transformation is due to thermodynamic control arising from differences in surface energies of the two phases (Mn2O3 and Mn3O4) under wet and dry conditions. Such reversible and rapid transformation near room temperature may affect the behavior of manganese oxides in technological applications and in geologic and environmental settings.

  2. A Decade of Economic Change and Population Shifts in U.S. Regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deming, William G.

    1996-01-01

    Between 1983 and 1990, the United States experienced one of its longest periods of economic expansion since the Second World War. The 1983-95 period has been a time of fundamental economic change, with wide variations by state and region caused by industrial restructuring, worker migration, and immigration. (JOW)

  3. Climate Change and Costs: Investigating Students' Reasoning on Nature and Economic Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sternang, Li; Lundholm, Cecilia

    2012-01-01

    The tensions between environmental protection and economic growth are critical to future well-being, and it is therefore important to understand how young people conceptualize these tensions. The aim of the present study is to explore students' solutions to the dilemma of economic development and mitigating climate change, with regard to societal…

  4. The Elitism Dispositif: Hierarchization, Discourses of Excellence and Organizational Change in European Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maesse, Jens

    2017-01-01

    From the 1990s onwards, economics departments in Europe have changed toward a culture of "excellence." Strong academic hierarchies and new forms of academic organization replace "institutes" and "colleges" by fully equipped "economics departments." This article seeks to demonstrate how and why…

  5. Rapid changes in gene expression direct rapid shifts in intestinal form and function in the Burmese python after feeding

    OpenAIRE

    Andrew, Audra L.; Card, Daren C.; Ruggiero, Robert P.; Schield, Drew R.; Adams, Richard H.; Pollock, David D.; Secor, Stephen M.; Castoe, Todd A.

    2015-01-01

    Snakes provide a unique and valuable model system for studying the extremes of physiological remodeling because of the ability of some species to rapidly upregulate organ form and function upon feeding. The predominant model species used to study such extreme responses has been the Burmese python because of the extreme nature of postfeeding response in this species. We analyzed the Burmese python intestine across a time series, before, during, and after feeding to understand the patterns and ...

  6. Economic impacts associated with pure taxable capacity changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjornstad, D.J.

    1978-01-01

    An attempt is made to broaden the purview of fiscal impact analysis to include impacts on the local private sector that may stem from local public sector changes. More specifically, attention is focused on the limiting case, in which new private sector development yields positive changes in fiscal capacity, but does not increase public service demands or interact with the local private sector. This phenomenon is termed a ''pure'' change in fiscal capacity, or, stated differently, pure tax revenue importation. Interest in this issue stems from an analysis of the local impacts of constructing and operating nuclear power stations. Nuclear power stations, like other electrical generating facilities, are characterized by large capital-labor ratios, implying that the impact of siting would be to increase local taxable capacity, via the property tax base, to a greater extent than local private sector activity, via new hirings. Moreover, a small labor force implies a modest change in the demand for local public services, and facilities of this nature by themselves demand few, if any, public services. A nuclear power station, however, may be distinguished from other electrical generating facilities through siting regulations that require locating in a low population density area, a fact which ensures the influence on the community will be substantial. The question of how and to what degree feedback effects from local public to local private sector may take place is described

  7. Economics of climate change under uncertainty. Benefits of flexibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anda, Jon; Golub, Alexander; Strukova, Elena

    2009-01-01

    The selection of climate policy has to be made in an extremely uncertain environment: both benefits and costs of a particular climate policy are unknown and in the best case could be described by the probability distribution of various outcomes. Dominated in literature, the expected value approach to the cost-benefit analysis of climate policy under uncertainties relies on the aggregated estimation of various outcomes of climate policy weighted and averaged by probabilities. The variance, skewness, and kurtosis are important characteristics of uncertainties but can be easily lost in the process of aggregation. The real option analysis (ROA) explicitly accounts for both the expected value of underling assets and the variance of the expected value (as well as skewness and kurtosis that are important to describe a fat tail phenomenon). In the paper, we propose an application of the real option analysis in order to formulate rules for the selection of a climate policy (emission target) and estimate the economic value of the future flexibility created by interim climate policy, which may be corrected in the future in response to new knowledge that hopefully reduces uncertainties. The initially selected interim policy has an option value and methodology for its valuation presented in the paper. (author)

  8. Into the Green Economy – Evolutionary Perspectives on Green Economic Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Maj Munch

    The recent ‘greening’ of the economy represents possible one of the most profound examples of economic change. While the environment used to be considered a burden to business this perspec-tive has changed making ‘eco-innovation’ increasingly recognized as a driver of economic devel-opment. Evolu......The recent ‘greening’ of the economy represents possible one of the most profound examples of economic change. While the environment used to be considered a burden to business this perspec-tive has changed making ‘eco-innovation’ increasingly recognized as a driver of economic devel...... of the greening of industry and the economy is of interest because of the focus on the fundamental social and economic difficulties of changing direction in technology. Defining the greening of the economy as a techno-economic paradigm change the paper suggests expanding on Perez’s framework (Perez, 1983, 2000...... problem solving, and simultaneously, the emergence of new green selection criteria on the market. These lead to a series of interrelated eco-innovations, which gain still more force as the green market matures. In the search for the origins of paradigmatic changes, the paper suggests to focus...

  9. Selected physical, biological and biogeochemical implications of a rapidly changing Arctic Marginal Ice Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barber, David G.; Hop, Haakon; Mundy, Christopher J.; Else, Brent; Dmitrenko, Igor A.; Tremblay, Jean-Eric; Ehn, Jens K.; Assmy, Philipp; Daase, Malin; Candlish, Lauren M.; Rysgaard, Søren

    2015-12-01

    The Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) of the Arctic Ocean is changing rapidly due to a warming Arctic climate with commensurate reductions in sea ice extent and thickness. This Pan-Arctic review summarizes the main changes in the Arctic ocean-sea ice-atmosphere (OSA) interface, with implications for primary- and secondary producers in the ice and the underlying water column. Changes in the Arctic MIZ were interpreted for the period 1979-2010, based on best-fit regressions for each month. Trends of increasingly open water were statistically significant for each month, with quadratic fit for August-November, illustrating particularly strong seasonal feedbacks in sea-ice formation and decay. Geographic interpretations of physical and biological changes were based on comparison of regions with significant changes in sea ice: (1) The Pacific Sector of the Arctic Ocean including the Canada Basin and the Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian seas; (2) The Canadian Arctic Archipelago; (3) Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay; and (4) the Barents and Kara seas. Changes in ice conditions in the Barents sea/Kara sea region appear to be primarily forced by ocean heat fluxes during winter, whereas changes in the other sectors appear to be more summer-autumn related and primarily atmospherically forced. Effects of seasonal and regional changes in OSA-system with regard to increased open water were summarized for photosynthetically available radiation, nutrient delivery to the euphotic zone, primary production of ice algae and phytoplankton, ice-associated fauna and zooplankton, and gas exchange of CO2. Changes in the physical factors varied amongst regions, and showed direct effects on organisms linked to sea ice. Zooplankton species appear to be more flexible and likely able to adapt to variability in the onset of primary production. The major changes identified for the ice-associated ecosystem are with regard to production timing and abundance or biomass of ice flora and fauna, which are related to

  10. Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that increases the vulnerability of the built environment. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska’s public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenar...

  11. Economic and welfare impacts of climate change on developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winters, P.; Murgai, R.; Sadoulet, E.; De Janvry, A.; Frisvold, G.

    1998-01-01

    The impact of global climate change on developing countries is analyzed using CGE-multimarket models for three archetype economies representing the poor cereal importing nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The objective is to compare the effects of climate change on the macroeconomic performance, sectoral resource allocation, and household welfare across continents. Simulations help identify those underlying structural features of economies which are the primary determinants of differential impacts; these are suggestive of policy instruments to countervail undesirable effects. Results show that all these countries will potentially suffer income and production losses. However, Africa, with its low substitution possibilities between imported and domestic foods, fares worst in terms of income losses and the drop in consumption of low income households. Countervailing policies to mitigate negative effects should focus on integration in the international market and the production of food crops in Africa, and on the production of export crops in Latin America and Asia. 46 refs

  12. Economism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Simons

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Modern society is characterised not only by a fascination with scientific technology as a means of solving all problems, especially those that stand in the way of material progress (technicism, but also by an obsessive interest in everything that has to do with money (economism or mammonism. The article discusses the relationship between technicism and economism, on the basis of their relationship to utilitarian thinking: the quest for the greatest happiness for the greatest number of people. Recent major studies of neo-liberalism (seen as an intensification of utilitarianism by Laval and Dardot are used as reference to the development of utilitarianism. It is suggested that the western view of the world, as expressed in economism and technicism, with a utilitarian ethics, features three absolutisations: those of theoretical thinking, technology and economics. In a second part, the article draws on the framework of reformational philosophy to suggest an approach that, in principle, is not marred by such absolutisations.

  13. Functional Forms, Exogenous Shifts, and Economic Surplus Changes

    OpenAIRE

    Xueyan Zhao; John D. Mullen; Gary R. Griffith

    1997-01-01

    Conditions for exact welfare measures in equilibrium displacement modeling are examined. These relate to the functional form of supply and demand, the nature of the exogenous shift, and the definition of percentage changes. Approximation errors when these conditions are not met in empirical applications are investigated and analytical expressions for the errors derived. Significant errors are possible when a proportional shift is assumed. The assumptions underlying Alston and Wohlgenant's emp...

  14. Specific changes in rapidly transported proteins during regeneration of the goldfish optic nerve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benowitz, L.I.; Shashoua, V.E.; Yoon, M.G.

    1981-01-01

    Double labeling methods were used to identify changes in the complement of proteins synthesized in the retinal ganglion cells and transported down the optic nerve during the process of axonal regeneration. Eight to 62 days after goldfish underwent a unilateral optic nerve crush, one eye was labeled with [3H]-, the other with [14C]proline. Control and regenerating optic nerves were dissected out and homogenized together after 5 hr, a time which allowed us to examine selectively membrane-bound components which migrate in the rapid phase of axoplasmic transport. Proteins from the two sides were so-purified and separated by sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Analysis of the 3H and 14C incorporation patterns along the gels revealed a radical shift away from the normal labeling spectrum during regeneration, with selective changes in labeling at particular molecular weights varying over a 3-fold range. Eight days after crushing the optic nerve, the greatest increases in labeling were seen for material with apparent molecular weights of 24,000 to 27,000, 44,000, and 210,000 daltons. These peaks declined thereafter, and on days 29 to 39, the most prominent increases were at 110,000 to 140,000 daltons. These studies indicate a continuously changing pattern in the synthesis and/or degradation of proteins that are rapidly transported down the optic nerve during regeneration and point to molecular species potential significance in the establishment of the visual map upon the brain

  15. Modulators of mercury risk to wildlife and humans in the context of rapid global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Silbergeld, Ellen K.; Basu, Niladri; Bustamante, Paco; Diaz-Barriga, Fernando; Hopkins, William A.; Kidd, Karen A.; Nyland, Jennifer F.

    2018-01-01

    Environmental mercury (Hg) contamination is an urgent global health threat. The complexity of Hg in the environment can hinder accurate determination of ecological and human health risks, particularly within the context of the rapid global changes that are altering many ecological processes, socioeconomic patterns, and other factors like infectious disease incidence, which can affect Hg exposures and health outcomes. However, the success of global Hg-reduction efforts depends on accurate assessments of their effectiveness in reducing health risks. In this paper, we examine the role that key extrinsic and intrinsic drivers play on several aspects of Hg risk to humans and organisms in the environment. We do so within three key domains of ecological and human health risk. First, we examine how extrinsic global change drivers influence pathways of Hg bioaccumulation and biomagnification through food webs. Next, we describe how extrinsic socioeconomic drivers at a global scale, and intrinsic individual-level drivers, influence human Hg exposure. Finally, we address how the adverse health effects of Hg in humans and wildlife are modulated by a range of extrinsic and intrinsic drivers within the context of rapid global change. Incorporating components of these three domains into research and monitoring will facilitate a more holistic understanding of how ecological and societal drivers interact to influence Hg health risks.

  16. Economics of climate change : sensitivity analysis of social cost of carbon

    OpenAIRE

    Torniainen, Sami

    2016-01-01

    Social cost of carbon (SCC) is the key concept in the economics of climate change. It measures the economic cost of climate impacts. SCC has influence on how beneficial it is to prevent climate change: if the value of SCC increases, investments to low-carbon technology become more attractive and profitable. This paper examines the sensitivity of two important assumptions that affect to SCC: the choice of a discount rate and time horizon. Using the integrated assessment model, ...

  17. Neurogenomics and the role of a large mutational target on rapid behavioral change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Craig E; Kulathinal, Rob J

    2016-11-08

    Behavior, while complex and dynamic, is among the most diverse, derived, and rapidly evolving traits in animals. The highly labile nature of heritable behavioral change is observed in such evolutionary phenomena as the emergence of converged behaviors in domesticated animals, the rapid evolution of preferences, and the routine development of ethological isolation between diverging populations and species. In fact, it is believed that nervous system development and its potential to evolve a seemingly infinite array of behavioral innovations played a major role in the successful diversification of metazoans, including our own human lineage. However, unlike other rapidly evolving functional systems such as sperm-egg interactions and immune defense, the genetic basis of rapid behavioral change remains elusive. Here we propose that the rapid divergence and widespread novelty of innate and adaptive behavior is primarily a function of its genomic architecture. Specifically, we hypothesize that the broad diversity of behavioral phenotypes present at micro- and macroevolutionary scales is promoted by a disproportionately large mutational target of neurogenic genes. We present evidence that these large neuro-behavioral targets are significant and ubiquitous in animal genomes and suggest that behavior's novelty and rapid emergence are driven by a number of factors including more selection on a larger pool of variants, a greater role of phenotypic plasticity, and/or unique molecular features present in large genes. We briefly discuss the origins of these large neurogenic genes, as they relate to the remarkable diversity of metazoan behaviors, and highlight key consequences on both behavioral traits and neurogenic disease across, respectively, evolutionary and ontogenetic time scales. Current approaches to studying the genetic mechanisms underlying rapid phenotypic change primarily focus on identifying signatures of Darwinian selection in protein-coding regions. In contrast

  18. Experiences of Families Transmitting Values in a Rapidly Changing Society: Implications for Family Therapists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akyil, Yudum; Prouty, Anne; Blanchard, Amy; Lyness, Kevin

    2016-06-01

    Intergenerational value transmission affects parent-child relationships and necessitates constant negotiation in families. Families with adolescents from rapidly changing societies face unique challenges in balancing the traditional collectivistic family values that promote harmony with emerging values that promote autonomy. Using modern Turkey as an example of such a culture, the authors examine the transmission process in families that hold more traditional and collectivistic values than their adolescent children. Special consideration is given to generational and cultural differences in the autonomy and relatedness dimensions. © 2015 Family Process Institute.

  19. Wiki management a revolutionary new model for a rapidly changing and collaborative world

    CERN Document Server

    Collins, Rod

    2013-01-01

    We now live in a "wiki" world where mass collaboration is not only possible-it's often the best solution. Conventional management thought assumes that command-and-control is the most effective way to organize the efforts of large numbers of people, but rapid change and increasing complexity have rendered that model obsolete. As a result, most managers today lack the skills and knowledge needed to succeed in an age when networks are proving smarter and faster than hierarchies. Designing organizations for mass collaboration demands a new and very different model-wiki management.

  20. Tropical vegetation evidence for rapid sea level changes associated with Heinrich Events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez, Catalina; Dupont, Lydie M, E-mail: catalina@uni-bremen.d, E-mail: dupont@uni-bremen.d [MARUM - Centre for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Leobener Strasse, D-28359 Germany (Germany)

    2010-03-15

    A Cariaco Basin pollen record shows the development of tropical salt marshes during marine isotope stage 3. Rapid and abrupt expansions of salt marsh vegetation in tropical South America are associated with north Atlantic Heinrich Events stadials (HE-stadials). Intervals of salt marsh expansion have an internal structure, which consists of a recurrent alternation of species that starts with pollen increments of Chenopodiaceae, that are followed by increments of grasses, and subsequently by increments of Cyperaceae. This pattern suggests a successional process that is determined by the close relationship between sea-level and plant community dynamics. The salt tolerant Chenopodiaceae, indicate hypersaline intertidal environments, which were most likely promoted by extremely dry atmospheric conditions. Rapid sea-level rise characterizes the onset of HE-stadials, causing the continued recruitment of pioneer species, which are the only ones tolerating rapid rates of disturbance. Once sea-level rise decelerates, marsh plants are able to trap and stabilize sediments, favouring the establishment of more competitive species. These results add to the scarce knowledge on the dynamics of tropical salt marsh ecosystems, and provide independent paleoclimatic evidence on sea-level changes following Antarctic climate variability.

  1. Rapid gene expression changes in peripheral blood lymphocytes upon practice of a comprehensive yoga program.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Su Qu

    Full Text Available One of the most common integrative medicine (IM modalities is yoga and related practices. Previous work has shown that yoga may improve wellness in healthy people and have benefits for patients. However, the mechanisms of how yoga may positively affect the mind-body system are largely unknown. Here we have assessed possible rapid changes in global gene expression profiles in the peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs in healthy people that practiced either a comprehensive yoga program or a control regimen. The experimental sessions included gentle yoga postures, breathing exercises, and meditation (Sudarshan Kriya and Related Practices--SK&P compared with a control regimen of a nature walk and listening to relaxing music. We show that the SK&P program has a rapid and significantly greater effect on gene expression in PBMCs compared with the control regimen. These data suggest that yoga and related practices result in rapid gene expression alterations which may be the basis for their longer term cell biological and higher level health effects.

  2. Economic impacts of climate change. Flooding and salinity in scenarios, models and cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonkhoff, W.; Koops, O.; Van der Krogt, R.; Oude Essink, G.; Rietveld, E.

    2008-07-01

    In this report, climatic and economic scenarios are combined and future risks are calculated for the consequences of climate change, such as a rising sea level, flooding, extreme draughts and salinity. The calculation of these economic effects of climate change are based on climate scenarios of the KNMI (Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute), TNO's RAEM model (Spatial General Economic Model), the high tide information system of the Dutch Ministry of Waterways and Public Works and the Space scanner of the Environmental Assessment Agency. Next to information on scenarios and models, this report also addresses damage calculations of flooding near Lopik and Ter Heide. The report ends with policy recommendations for adaptation policy. [mk] [nl

  3. Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J; Luderer, Gunnar

    2012-10-16

    The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy.

  4. Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J.; Luderer, Gunnar

    2012-01-01

    The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy. PMID:23027963

  5. Evaluation of economic impact of climatic change on agro-forestry systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vittorio Gallerani

    Full Text Available Climate change has a strong influence on agro-forestry systems. Present estimations evisage that changes in climate patterns and extreme events connected to climate change will have greater impacts in the future. This paper seeks to illustrate the articulation of the problems concerning the economic evaluation of climate change, with particularly attention to open problems and future lines of research. Research on this topic, though using methods and approaches consolidated in the disciplines of resource economics and evaluation, still have several open problems, particularly in the field of multidisciplinary studies of the man-environmental relations, policy evaluation and development of decision support systems for decision makers.

  6. Economic Valuation on Change of Tourism Quality in Rawapening, Indonesia: An Application of Random Utility Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subanti, S.; Irawan, B. R. M. B.; Sasongko, G.; Hakim, A. R.

    2017-04-01

    This study aims to determine the profit (loss) earned economic actors tourism activities if the condition or quality of tourism in Rawapening be improved (deteriorated). Change condition or quality can be seen by traveling expenses, natural environment, Japanese cultural performances, and traditional markets. The method used to measure changes in the economic benefits or economic loss with a random utility approach. The study was found that travel cost, natural environment, Japanese cultural performances, and traditional markets have significant factors about respondent preferences to choose the change of tourism condition. The value of compensation received by visitors as a result of changes in conditions improved by 2,932 billion, while the change in the condition worsens by 2,628 billion. Recommendation of this study is the local government should consider environmental factors in the formulation of tourism development in Rawapening.

  7. Understanding of Grassland Ecosystems under Climate Change and Economic Development Pressures in the Mongolia Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, J.; Chen, J.; Shan, P.; Pan, X.; Wei, Y.; Wang, M.; Xin, X.

    2011-12-01

    The land use and land cover change, especially in the form of grassland degradation, in the Mongolian Plateau, exhibited a unique spatio-temporal pattern that is a characteristic of a mixed stress from economic development and climate change of the region. The social dimension of the region played a key role in shaping the landscape and land use change, including the cultural clashes with economic development, conflicts between indigenous people and business ventures, and exogenous international influences. Various research projects have been conducted in the region to focus on physical degradation of grasslands and/or on economic development but there is a lack of understanding how the social and economic dimensions interact with grassland ecosystems and changes. In this talk, a synthesis report was made based on the most recent workshop held in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, of China, that specifically focused on climate change and grassland ecosystems. The report analyzed the degree of grassland degradation, its climate and social drivers, and coupling nature of economic development and conservation of traditional grassland values. The goal is to fully understand the socio-ecological-economic interactions that together shape the trajectory of the grassland ecosystems in the Mongolia Plateau.

  8. Definition of the “economic security of strategic changes at an enterprise” notion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otenko Iryna Pavlivna

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Availability of a multitude of approaches to management of economic security of an enterprise and systemisation of their provisions allow development of a conceptual framework by means of identification of the essence of the “enterprise economic security” notion in the context of development processes management. The article shows that essence and composition of the “economic security of strategic changes of an enterprise” notion should not only take into account the set of views and methods of understanding and their interpretation in various aspects, but also form the basic idea and tasks of ensuring economic security of strategic changes of an enterprise, which is reflected in results of its activity through prevention and assessment of threats and formation of the state of protection and qualitative changes. The presented provision that the economic security management system should be integrated into the processes of strategic changes of an enterprise allows forming methodical provision of management of economic security of strategic changes of an enterprise and instruments of management, directions of forming of which correspond with the enterprise strategic goals.

  9. Rapid changes in protein phosphorylation associated with gravity perception in corn roots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McFadden, J.J.; Poovaiah, B.W.

    1987-01-01

    A previous paper from this laboratory showed calcium- and calmodulin-dependent in vivo protein phosphorylation in corn root tips. The authors show that rapid changes in calcium-dependent protein phosphorylation are involved in light-dependent graviperception in corn root tips. Corn seedlings (Zea mays L, cv Merit) were grown in the dark for 3 d, then apical root segments were harvested in dim green light to measure in vivo protein phosphorylation. Segments were incubated with 0.5 mCi 32 P for 1 h, then immediately frozen in liquid N 2 or first treated with either 7 min light, or 7 min light plus 1 mM EGTA and 10 μM A23187. Labeled proteins were separated by 2D gel electrophoresis and detected by autoradiography. Light caused rapid and specific promotion of phosphorylation of 5 polypeptides. The increases in protein phosphorylation were reversed by treating with EGTA and A23187. The authors postulate that these changes in protein phosphorylation are an essential part of the light-dependent gravity response in Merit roots

  10. Health Systems Research in a Complex and Rapidly Changing Context: Ethical Implications of Major Health Systems Change at Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGregor, Hayley; Bloom, Gerald

    2016-12-01

    This paper discusses health policy and systems research in complex and rapidly changing contexts. It focuses on ethical issues at stake for researchers working with government policy makers to provide evidence to inform major health systems change at scale, particularly when the dynamic nature of the context and ongoing challenges to the health system can result in unpredictable outcomes. We focus on situations where 'country ownership' of HSR is relatively well established and where there is significant involvement of local researchers and close ties and relationships with policy makers are often present. We frame our discussion around two country case studies with which we are familiar, namely China and South Africa and discuss the implications for conducting 'embedded' research. We suggest that reflexivity is an important concept for health system researchers who need to think carefully about positionality and their normative stance and to use such reflection to ensure that they can negotiate to retain autonomy, whilst also contributing evidence for health system change. A research process informed by the notion of reflexive practice and iterative learning will require a longitudinal review at key points in the research timeline. Such review should include the convening of a deliberative process and should involve a range of stakeholders, including those most likely to be affected by the intended and unintended consequences of change. © 2016 The Authors Developing World Bioethics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Energy, the Environment and Behaviour Change: A survey of insights from behavioural economics

    OpenAIRE

    Baddeley, M.

    2011-01-01

    Evidence of climate change is largely undisputed but moderating the impacts not only of climate change but also of resource depletion is a complex, multi-faceted problem. Technical solutions will have a large role to play but engineering behaviour change within households and firms is essential to harnessing the potential for energy efficient consumption, production and investment. To inform debates about behavior change, this paper explores some insights from behavioural economics including ...

  12. Rapidly Assessing Changes in Bone Mineral Balance Using Natural Stable Calcium Isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, J. L. L.; Gordon, G. W.; Romaniello, S. J.; Skulan, J. L.; Smith, S. M.; Anbar, A. D.

    2011-01-01

    We demonstrate that variations in the Ca isotope ratios in urine rapidly and quantitatively reflect changes in bone mineral balance. This variation occurs because bone formation depletes soft tissue of light Ca isotopes, while bone resorption releases that isotopically light Ca back into soft tissue. In a study of 12 individuals confined to bed rest, a condition known to induce bone resorption, we show that Ca isotope ratios shift in a direction consistent with net bone loss after just 7 days, long before detectible changes in bone density occur. Consistent with this interpretation, the Ca isotope variations track changes observed in N-teleopeptide, a bone resorption biomarker, while bone-specific alkaline phosphatase, a bone formation biomarker, is unchanged. Ca isotopes can in principle be used to quantify net changes in bone mass. Ca isotopes indicate an average loss of 0.62 +/- 0.16 % in bone mass over the course of this 30-day study. The Ca isotope technique should accelerate the pace of discovery of new treatments for bone disease and provide novel insights into the dynamics of bone metabolism.

  13. Wildlife health in a rapidly changing North: focus on avian disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Hemert, Caroline R.; Pearce, John M.; Handel, Colleen M.

    2014-01-01

    Climate-related environmental changes have increasingly been linked to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife. The Arctic is facing a major ecological transition that is expected to substantially affect animal and human health. Changes in phenology or environmental conditions that result from climate warming may promote novel species assemblages as host and pathogen ranges expand to previously unoccupied areas. Recent evidence from the Arctic and subarctic suggests an increase in the spread and prevalence of some wildlife diseases, but baseline data necessary to detect and verify such changes are still lacking. Wild birds are undergoing rapid shifts in distribution and have been implicated in the spread of wildlife and zoonotic diseases. Here, we review evidence of current and projected changes in the abundance and distribution of avian diseases and outline strategies for future research. We discuss relevant climatic and environmental factors, emerging host–pathogen contact zones, the relationship between host condition and immune function, and potential wildlife and human health outcomes in northern regions.

  14. Monitoring Forest Change in Landscapes Under-Going Rapid Energy Development: Challenges and New Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul D. Pickell

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The accelerated development of energy resources around the world has substantially increased forest change related to oil and gas activities. In some cases, oil and gas activities are the primary catalyst of land-use change in forested landscapes. We discuss the challenges associated with characterizing ecological change related to energy resource development using North America as an exemplar. We synthesize the major impacts of energy development to forested ecosystems and offer new perspectives on how to detect and monitor anthropogenic disturbance during the Anthropocene. The disturbance of North American forests for energy development has resulted in persistent linear corridors, suppression of historical disturbance regimes, novel ecosystems, and the eradication of ecological memory. Characterizing anthropogenic disturbances using conventional patch-based disturbance measures will tend to underestimate the ecological impacts of energy development. Suitable indicators of anthropogenic impacts in forests should be derived from the integration of multi-scalar Earth observations. Relating these indicators to ecosystem condition will be a capstone in the progress toward monitoring forest change in landscapes undergoing rapid energy development.

  15. Modelling of Efficiency Change as a Source of Economic Growth in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bezat-Jarzębowska Agnieszka

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In the paper, the subject of economic growth in agriculture was raised. One of the determinants of this process, namely an efficiency change was under the assessment. The aim of the paper was to evaluate the changes of efficiency in the Polish agriculture. In the study, a stochastic parametric production function was used.

  16. The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico: Implications for National/Regional Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Estrada, E.; Papyrakis, E.; Tol, R.S.J.; Gay-García, C.

    2013-01-01

    The recent Mexican government study, The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico (ECCM), which has largely influenced Mexico's stance on climate change issues and international negotiations, is critically reviewed. Whilst the importance of such government-supported national studies as a first attempt

  17. Economic costs of extratropical storms under climate change: An application of FUND

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Narita, D.; Anthoff, D.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2010-01-01

    Extratropical cyclones have attracted some attention in climate policy circles as a possible significant damage factor of climate change. This study conducts an assessment of economic impacts of increased storm activities under climate change with the integrated assessment model FUND 3.5. In the

  18. Changes in the value chain of scientific information: economic consequences for academic institutions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roosendaal, Hans E.; Huibers, Theo W.C.; Geurts, Petrus A.T.M.; van der Vet, P.E.

    2003-01-01

    The economic impact of information and communication technology (ICT) on the academic library and on the academic institution are discussed in terms of changes in the value chain of scientific information induced by the use of ICT. Argues that ICT is a very strong engine for change as it has the

  19. Measuring Land Change in Coastal Zone around a Rapidly Urbanized Bay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Faming; Huang, Boqiang; Huang, Jinliang; Li, Shenghui

    2018-05-23

    Urban development is a major cause for eco-degradation in many coastal regions. Understanding urbanization dynamics and underlying driving factors is crucial for urban planning and management. Land-use dynamic degree indices and intensity analysis were used to measure land changes occurred in 1990, 2002, 2009, and 2017 in the coastal zone around Quanzhou bay, which is a rapidly urbanized bay in Southeast China. The comprehensive land-use dynamic degree and interval level intensity analysis both revealed that land change was accelerating across the three time intervals in a three-kilometer-wide zone along the coastal line (zone A), while land change was fastest during the second time interval 2002⁻2009 in a separate terrestrial area within coastal zone (zone B). Driven by urbanization, built-up gains and cropland losses were active for all time intervals in both zones. Mudflat losses were active except in the first time interval in zone A due to the intensive sea reclamation. The gain of mangrove was active while the loss of mangrove is dormant for all three intervals in zone A. Transition level analysis further revealed the similarities and differences in processes within patterns of land changes for both zones. The transition from cropland to built-up was systematically targeted and stationary while the transition from woodland to built-up was systematically avoiding transition in both zones. Built-up tended to target aquaculture for the second and third time intervals in zone A but avoid Aquaculture for all intervals in zone B. Land change in zone A was more significant than that in zone B during the second and third time intervals at three-level intensity. The application of intensity analysis can enhance our understanding of the patterns and processes in land changes and suitable land development plans in the Quanzhou bay area. This type of investigation is useful to provide information for developing sound land use policy to achieve urban sustainability in

  20. Rapid Land Cover Map Updates Using Change Detection and Robust Random Forest Classifiers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konrad J. Wessels

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper evaluated the Landsat Automated Land Cover Update Mapping (LALCUM system designed to rapidly update a land cover map to a desired nominal year using a pre-existing reference land cover map. The system uses the Iteratively Reweighted Multivariate Alteration Detection (IRMAD to identify areas of change and no change. The system then automatically generates large amounts of training samples (n > 1 million in the no-change areas as input to an optimized Random Forest classifier. Experiments were conducted in the KwaZulu-Natal Province of South Africa using a reference land cover map from 2008, a change mask between 2008 and 2011 and Landsat ETM+ data for 2011. The entire system took 9.5 h to process. We expected that the use of the change mask would improve classification accuracy by reducing the number of mislabeled training data caused by land cover change between 2008 and 2011. However, this was not the case due to exceptional robustness of Random Forest classifier to mislabeled training samples. The system achieved an overall accuracy of 65%–67% using 22 detailed classes and 72%–74% using 12 aggregated national classes. “Water”, “Plantations”, “Plantations—clearfelled”, “Orchards—trees”, “Sugarcane”, “Built-up/dense settlement”, “Cultivation—Irrigated” and “Forest (indigenous” had user’s accuracies above 70%. Other detailed classes (e.g., “Low density settlements”, “Mines and Quarries”, and “Cultivation, subsistence, drylands” which are required for operational, provincial-scale land use planning and are usually mapped using manual image interpretation, could not be mapped using Landsat spectral data alone. However, the system was able to map the 12 national classes, at a sufficiently high level of accuracy for national scale land cover monitoring. This update approach and the highly automated, scalable LALCUM system can improve the efficiency and update rate of regional land

  1. Adaptation of Agricultural and Food Systems to Climate Change: An Economic and Policy Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    John M. Antle; Susan M. Capalbo

    2010-01-01

    Adaptation of agricultural and food systems to climate change involves private and public investment decisions in the face of climate and policy uncertainties. The authors present a framework for analysis of adaptation as an investment, based on elements of the economics, finance, and ecological economics literatures. They use this framework to assess critically impact and adaptation studies, and discuss how research could be designed to support public and private investment decisions. They t...

  2. Cone-beam computed tomography evaluation of dentoskeletal changes after asymmetric rapid maxillary expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baka, Zeliha Muge; Akin, Mehmet; Ucar, Faruk Izzet; Ileri, Zehra

    2015-01-01

    The aims of this study were to quantitatively evaluate the changes in arch widths and buccolingual inclinations of the posterior teeth after asymmetric rapid maxillary expansion (ARME) and to compare the measurements between the crossbite and the noncrossbite sides with cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT). From our clinic archives, we selected the CBCT records of 30 patients with unilateral skeletal crossbite (13 boys, 14.2 ± 1.3 years old; 17 girls, 13.8 ± 1.3 years old) who underwent ARME treatment. A modified acrylic bonded rapid maxillary expansion appliance including an occlusal locking mechanism was used in all patients. CBCT records had been taken before ARME treatment and after a 3-month retention period. Fourteen angular and 80 linear measurements were taken for the maxilla and the mandible. Frontally clipped CBCT images were used for the evaluation. Paired sample and independent sample t tests were used for statistical comparisons. Comparisons of the before-treatment and after-retention measurements showed that the arch widths and buccolingual inclinations of the posterior teeth increased significantly on the crossbite side of the maxilla and on the noncrossbite side of the mandible (P ARME treatment, the crossbite side of the maxilla and the noncrossbite side of the mandible were more affected than were the opposite sides. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  3. Instability of the socio-economic systems as a factor of their receptivity towards changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. A. Romanova

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available In this article author marks out the life phases of socio-economic systems from the point of view of theirs stability / instability, determines the correlation between life phase and receptivity degree of system to changes. They offer the order parameters of socio-economic system and assessment methods through which instability is conveyed. The suggested methods have been used for solving the problem of assessing the degree of receptivity of the regional economic systems to the currents global crisis and the following modernization process.

  4. Portable rapid gas content measurement - an opportunity for a step change in the coal industry?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beamish, Basil; Kizil, Mehmet; Gu, Ming

    2013-01-01

    The last major advance in gas content measurement for coal seams was the introduction of the quick crush technique in the early 1990s. This is a laboratory test method that has proven very reliable over the years. Recent laboratory testing using a portable quick crushing device, known as the portable gas content analyser, has produced consistent gas content results for a set of core samples obtained from a single borehole that intersected four coal seams. The retained gas content values obtained for the seams show the same increasing gas content pattern and gas composition change with depth as the standard quick crush technique. Use of the portable gas content analyser provides the opportunity to produce rapid, reliable gas content measurement of coal that could be developed for assessing gas compliance cores and outburst-prone conditions at a mine site.

  5. Phase field modeling of rapid crystallization in the phase-change material AIST

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabatabaei, Fatemeh; Boussinot, Guillaume; Spatschek, Robert; Brener, Efim A.; Apel, Markus

    2017-07-01

    We carry out phase field modeling as a continuum simulation technique in order to study rapid crystallization processes in the phase-change material AIST (Ag4In3Sb67Te26). In particular, we simulate the spatio-temporal evolution of the crystallization of a molten area of the phase-change material embedded in a layer stack. The simulation model is adapted to the experimental conditions used for recent measurements of crystallization rates by a laser pulse technique. Simulations are performed for substrate temperatures close to the melting temperature of AIST down to low temperatures when an amorphous state is involved. The design of the phase field model using the thin interface limit allows us to retrieve the two limiting regimes of interface controlled (low temperatures) and thermal transport controlled (high temperatures) dynamics. Our simulations show that, generically, the crystallization velocity presents a maximum in the intermediate regime where both the interface mobility and the thermal transport, through the molten area as well as through the layer stack, are important. Simulations reveal the complex interplay of all different contributions. This suggests that the maximum switching velocity depends not only on material properties but also on the precise design of the thin film structure into which the phase-change material is embedded.

  6. Spectroscopic sensitivity of real-time, rapidly induced phytochemical change in response to damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couture, John J; Serbin, Shawn P; Townsend, Philip A

    2013-04-01

    An ecological consequence of plant-herbivore interactions is the phytochemical induction of defenses in response to insect damage. Here, we used reflectance spectroscopy to characterize the foliar induction profile of cardenolides in Asclepias syriaca in response to damage, tracked in vivo changes and examined the influence of multiple plant traits on cardenolide concentrations. Foliar cardenolide concentrations were measured at specific time points following damage to capture their induction profile. Partial least-squares regression (PLSR) modeling was employed to calibrate cardenolide concentrations to reflectance spectroscopy. In addition, subsets of plants were either repeatedly sampled to track in vivo changes or modified to reduce latex flow to damaged areas. Cardenolide concentrations and the induction profile of A. syriaca were well predicted using models derived from reflectance spectroscopy, and this held true for repeatedly sampled plants. Correlations between cardenolides and other foliar-related variables were weak or not significant. Plant modification for latex reduction inhibited an induced cardenolide response. Our findings show that reflectance spectroscopy can characterize rapid phytochemical changes in vivo. We used reflectance spectroscopy to identify the mechanisms behind the production of plant secondary metabolites, simultaneously characterizing multiple foliar constituents. In this case, cardenolide induction appears to be largely driven by enhanced latex delivery to leaves following damage. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

  7. Changes in the etiology of valvular heart disease in the rapidly aging Korean population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Shin Yi; Ju, Eun-Young; Seo, Su Ra; Choi, Ji Yeon; Park, Sung-Ji; Kim, Duk-Kyung; Park, Seung Woo

    2014-06-15

    The aim of this study is to assess the changes in the causes of valvular heart disease between 2006 and 2011 in Korea. Data were collected from the Korean National Health Insurance Service from 2006 through 2011. These data consisted of primary diagnoses related to valvular heart disease regardless of other conditions. Valvular heart disease included non-rheumatic mitral valve disorders, non-rheumatic aortic valve disorders, rheumatic mitral valve disorders, and rheumatic aortic valve disorders. Overall, the age-standardized cumulative prevalence of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease was 70.6 per 100,000 persons in 2006 and 110.3 in 2011. This represented an increase from 42.2 to 65.2 in women and from 28.4 to 45.1 in men. In particular, there was a greater increase in prevalence in patients aged 65 years or older compared with groups aged 20-44 years or 45-64 years for both genders. The age-standardized cumulative prevalence of rheumatic valve disease did not change dramatically between 2006 and 2011. The overall age-standardized cumulative prevalence of non-rheumatic valvular heart diseases increased between 2006 and 2011, especially in individuals older than 65 years. These changes should be considered in future designs of cardiovascular healthcare services in countries with a rapidly aging population. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Changing economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moxon, Suzanne

    1998-01-01

    The policy of the World Bank with regard to the funding of hydro schemes is questioned. Following evidence of the support given by the World Bank to many hydro schemes in the past 30 years, the reasons for the cutbacks in the 1990s are queried. A spokesman for the World Bank discusses the decline in funding. The increasing importance of environmental and social issues was a major factor in the Bank supporting the formation of the World Commission on dams in 1997. The Bank's spokesman asked if hydro can modernise itself and can it compete with other sources of energy in terms of cost and environmental impact. (UK)

  9. Is Personality Fixed? Personality Changes as Much as "Variable" Economic Factors and More Strongly Predicts Changes to Life Satisfaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, Christopher J.; Wood, Alex M.; Powdthavee, Nattavudh

    2013-01-01

    Personality is the strongest and most consistent cross-sectional predictor of high subjective well-being. Less predictive economic factors, such as higher income or improved job status, are often the focus of applied subjective well-being research due to a perception that they can change whereas personality cannot. As such there has been limited…

  10. Rapid evolution of phenology during range expansion with recent climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lustenhouwer, Nicky; Wilschut, Rutger A; Williams, Jennifer L; van der Putten, Wim H; Levine, Jonathan M

    2018-02-01

    Although climate warming is expected to make habitat beyond species' current cold range edge suitable for future colonization, this new habitat may present an array of biotic or abiotic conditions not experienced within the current range. Species' ability to shift their range with climate change may therefore depend on how populations evolve in response to such novel environmental conditions. However, due to the recent nature of thus far observed range expansions, the role of rapid adaptation during climate change migration is only beginning to be understood. Here, we evaluated evolution during the recent native range expansion of the annual plant Dittrichia graveolens, which is spreading northward in Europe from the Mediterranean region. We examined genetically based differentiation between core and edge populations in their phenology, a trait that is likely under selection with shorter growing seasons and greater seasonality at northern latitudes. In parallel common garden experiments at range edges in Switzerland and the Netherlands, we grew plants from Dutch, Swiss, and central and southern French populations. Population genetic analysis following RAD-sequencing of these populations supported the hypothesized central France origins of the Swiss and Dutch range edge populations. We found that in both common gardens, northern plants flowered up to 4 weeks earlier than southern plants. This differentiation in phenology extended from the core of the range to the Netherlands, a region only reached from central France over approximately the last 50 years. Fitness decreased as plants flowered later, supporting the hypothesized benefits of earlier flowering at the range edge. Our results suggest that native range expanding populations can rapidly adapt to novel environmental conditions in the expanded range, potentially promoting their ability to spread. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Safe communities in China as a strategy for injury prevention and safety promotion programmes in the era of rapid economic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shu-Mei; Dalal, Koustuv

    2013-02-01

    Due to its rapid economic development, China is facing a huge health, social, and economic burden resulting from injuries. The study's objective was to examine Safe Communities in China as a strategy for injury prevention and safety promotion programmes in the era of rapid economic growth. Literature searches in English and Chinese, which included grey literature, were performed on the Chinese Journal Full-text Search System and Medline, using the words "Safe Community", "injury", "economics", and "prevention". The results showed that the existing 35 recognized members of the International Safe Community Network have not placed due emphasis on suicide prevention, which is one of the leading problems in both rural and urban China. A few groups, such as children, the elderly, cyclists, and pedestrians, have received due emphasis, while other vulnerable groups, such as migrant workers, motorcyclists, students, players, and farmers have not received the necessary attention from the Safe Community perspective. As the evidence describes, Safe Communities in China can be a very effective strategy for injury prevention, but four aspects need to be strengthened in the future: (1) establish and strengthen the policy and regulations in terms of injury prevention at the national level; (2) create a system to involve professional organizations and personnel in projects; (3) consider the economic development status of different parts of China; and (4) intentional injury prevention should receive greater attention.

  12. Net Ecosystem Exchange of CO2 with Rapidly Changing High Arctic Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmerton, C. A.

    2015-12-01

    High Arctic landscapes are expansive and changing rapidly. However our understanding of their functional responses and potential to mitigate or enhance anthropogenic climate change is limited by few measurements. We collected eddy covariance measurements to quantify the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 with polar semidesert and meadow wetland landscapes at the highest-latitude location measured to date (82°N). We coupled these rare data with ground and satellite vegetation production measurements (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) to evaluate the effectiveness of upscaling local to regional NEE. During the growing season, the dry polar semidesert landscape was a near zero sink of atmospheric CO2 (NEE: -0.3±13.5 g C m-2). A nearby meadow wetland accumulated over two magnitudes more carbon (NEE: -79.3±20.0 g C m-2) than the polar semidesert landscape, and was similar to meadow wetland NEE at much more southern latitudes. Polar semidesert NEE was most influenced by moisture, with wetter surface soils resulting in greater soil respiration and CO2 emissions. At the meadow wetland, soil heating enhanced plant growth, which in turn increased CO2 uptake. Our upscaling assessment found that polar semidesert NDVI measured on site was low (mean: 0.120-0.157) and similar to satellite measurements (mean: 0.155-0.163). However, weak plant growth resulted in poor satellite NDVI-NEE relationships and created challenges for remotely-detecting changes in the cycling of carbon on the polar semidesert landscape. The meadow wetland appeared more suitable to assess plant production and NEE via remote-sensing, however high Arctic wetland extent is constrained by topography to small areas that may be difficult to resolve with large satellite pixels. We predict that until summer precipitation and humidity increases substantially, climate-related changes of dry high Arctic landscapes may be restricted by poor soil moisture retention, and therefore have some inertia against

  13. Economic Consequences of Fair Value Accounting and a Change in the Distribution Rule

    OpenAIRE

    Kochiyama, Takuma

    2011-01-01

    This research examines the economic consequences of fair value accounting and a change in the distribution rule. In Japan, fair value accounting for financial instruments was mandated from 2001, and unrealized revaluation profits were to be included in income statements. As an institutional correspondence to the change in accounting standards, Japanese Commerce Law implemented the deduction of revaluation profits from distributable profits. However, from 2006, the Japanese Company Act changed...

  14. Economic perspectives on the impact of climate variability and change: A summary report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timmerman, P.; Grima, A.P.

    1988-01-01

    A summary is presented of a collection of papers on the economic methodologies applicable to studies of the impact of global climate variability and change. The research was sponsored by the Canadian Climate program and was conducted as part of a project investigating the potential impacts on various sectors of the Canadian economy of climate warming due to the greenhouse effect. Topics of the papers include microeconomic analysis, benefit/cost analysis, input-output analysis, policy options regarding water levels in the Great Lakes, the scenario approach to assessing socio-economic sensitivities to climate change in the agri-food sector, and analysis of weather impacts. Several analytical tools are seen to be readily applicable to economic analyses of the effects of climate change, and issues of future water supply and demand are seen as central to climate impact assessment, and of particular concern to Canada

  15. Carbon taxes and tradeable emissions permits: the economic impacts of climate change policies in New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chisholm, A.; Porter, M. [Tasman Institute (Australia)

    1994-12-31

    Examines the potential economic impacts on New Zealand of climate change policy covering carbon taxes, expanding forest areas as carbon sinks (including selling plantation based emission credits to other OECD nations), and emissions quotas. It is concluded that climate change policy appears to offer high short-term economic costs and little prospect of longer-term economic gain, apart from uncertain environmental benefits. If the Government pursues an active policy to stabilise gross emissions of carbon dioxide at 1990 levels, short term losses in national output and real spending power could be around 0.5 to 1% of GDP. Any major intervention by the New Zealand Government to alter energy use patterns would bring about structural changes in the economy. 4 tabs., 12 refs.

  16. Structural Change, Economic Growth and the Environmental Kuznets Curve. A Theoretical Perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Groot, H.L.F.

    1999-01-01

    The question of whether economic growth will ultimately resolve environmental problems has recently been discussed in a mainly empirical literature. One of the mechanisms that can explain the finding of an inverted U-shaped relationship between income and emissions relies on the changes in the sectoral composition of economies associated with economic growth. This paper develops a multi-sector general-equilibrium model to study the dynamic relationships between technological progress, economic development, the sectoral composition of economies and emissions. In the model, structural change is the outcome of a complex interplay between factors of demand and supply, and results from both differences in technological progress on a sectoral level and from differences in income elasticities of demand for different goods. We will derive under what conditions such changes can give rise to a hump-shaped relationship between per capita income and emissions. 39 refs

  17. Aging and Wisdom: Age-related changes in economic and social decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth eLim

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available World life expectancy is increasing and many populations will begin to age rapidly. The impeding prevalence of a greater number of older people living longer lives will have significant social and economic implications. It is important to understand how older people make economic and social decisions. Aging can be associated with a ‘phenomenon of decline’ and also greater wisdom. This paper seeks to examine the relationship between wisdom and aging. It reviews and connects the behavioral sciences and neuroscience literature on age differences in the following social and economic decision making domains that represent subcomponents of wisdom: 1 prosocial behavior in experimental economic games and competitive situations, 2 resolving social conflicts, 3 emotional homeostasis, 4 self-reflection, 5 dealing effectively with uncertainty in the domains of risk, ambiguity and intertemporal choice. Overall, we find a lack of research into how older people make economic and social decisions. There is, however, some evidence that older adults outperform young adults on certain subcomponents of wisdom, but the exact relationship between old age and each subcomponent remains unclear. A better understanding of these relationships holds the potential to alleviate a wide range of mental health problems, and has broad implications for social policies aimed at the elderly.

  18. Economics as a factor in models of behavioral motivation and change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montoya, I D; Atkinson, J S; Trevino, R A

    2000-02-01

    This note first presents a summary of four main behavioral models that are used to explain behavioral motivation and change. Three models are based on psychosocial theory. They are: 1) the Theory of Reasoned Action, 2) the Theory of Planned Behavior, and 3) the Theory of Stages-of-Change. The fourth model is based on economic theory and is known as the Rational Addiction Model. Each model is analyzed for its strengths and weaknesses. The note concludes by arguing for the usefulness of integrating the economic and the psychosocial models to study drug use. Specific examples and suggestions are presented.

  19. Economic Impacts of Future Changes in the Energy System - National Perspectives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Glynn, James; Fortes, Patrícia; Krook-Riekkola, Anna

    2015-01-01

    climate change. This chapter summarises modelling methodologies developed in the ETSAP community to assess economic impacts of decarbonising energy systems at a national level. The preceding chapter focuses on a global perspective. The modelling studies outlined here show that burden sharing rules...... and national revenue recycling schemes for carbon tax are critical for the long-term viability of economic growth and equitable engagement on combating climate change. Traditional computable general equilibrium models and energy systems models solved in isolation can misrepresent the long run carbon cost...

  20. Implementing adaptation strategies by legal, economic and planning instruments on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Albrecht, Eike; Missler-Behr, Magdalena; Schmidt, Michael; Spyra, Simon P.N. (eds.) [Brandenburg Univ. of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg (Germany)

    2014-07-01

    The causes and effects of climate change are just as varied as the proposed solutions and approaches for dealing with the problem. Given the global character of climate change, comprehensive global cooperation is called for that leads to effective and appropriate international action in accordance with the respective responsibilities. These will inevitably differ depending on the capabilities and the social and economic situations of the respective actors. The contributions in this book present a variety of ideas, approaches and tools regarding the adaptation to climate change in specific countries and regions. In addition to examining (existing) legal instruments, they also focus on the implementation of economic instruments and planning tools, as well as their (further) development. Rather than simply discussing strategies to counteract climate change by reducing emissions, the authors also search for ways of actively adapting to climate change.

  1. Implementing adaptation strategies by legal, economic and planning instruments on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albrecht, Eike; Missler-Behr, Magdalena; Schmidt, Michael; Spyra, Simon P.N.

    2014-01-01

    The causes and effects of climate change are just as varied as the proposed solutions and approaches for dealing with the problem. Given the global character of climate change, comprehensive global cooperation is called for that leads to effective and appropriate international action in accordance with the respective responsibilities. These will inevitably differ depending on the capabilities and the social and economic situations of the respective actors. The contributions in this book present a variety of ideas, approaches and tools regarding the adaptation to climate change in specific countries and regions. In addition to examining (existing) legal instruments, they also focus on the implementation of economic instruments and planning tools, as well as their (further) development. Rather than simply discussing strategies to counteract climate change by reducing emissions, the authors also search for ways of actively adapting to climate change.

  2. Changes in BMI before and during economic development and subsequent risk of cardiovascular disease and total mortality: a 35-year follow-up study in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yao; Lam, Tai Hing; Jiang, Bin; Li, Lan Sun; Sun, Dong Ling; Wu, Lei; Liu, Miao; Yang, Shan Shan; Wang, Yi Yan; Tobias, Deirdre K; Sun, Qi; Hu, Frank B

    2014-09-01

    It is unclear whether changes in BMI during rapid economic development influence subsequent mortality. We analyzed whether BMI in 1976 and 1994 and changes in BMI during 1976-1994 predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality in a 35-year follow-up cohort of 1,696 Chinese (1,124 men and 572 women, aged 35-65 years) in Xi'an, China. Participants were categorized as underweight (economic development was associated with elevated risks of all-cause and CVD mortality. Higher BMI measured before economic development was associated with lower mortality risk, whereas BMI measured afterward was associated with increased mortality. © 2014 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

  3. Rapid Economic Growth and Natural Gas Consumption Nexus: Looking forward from Perspective of 11th Malaysian Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekhet, H. A.; Yasmin, T.

    2016-03-01

    The present study investigates the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption by incorporating CO2 emissions, natural gas consumption and population in Malaysia. Annual data and F-bound test and granger causality have applied to test the existence of long run relationship between the series. The results show that variables are cointegrated for long run relationship. The results also indicate that natural gas consumption is an important contributing factor to energy demand and hence economic growth in case of Malaysia. The causality analysis highlights that the feedback hypothesis exists between economic growth and energy consumption. While, conservative hypothesis is validated between natural gas consumption and economic growth which implies that economic growth will push natural gas consumption policies in future. This study opens up new direction for policy makers to formulate a comprehensive natural gas policy to sustain environment for long span of time in case to achieve 11th MP targets.

  4. Alternative futures for societal change: The Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, B. C.

    2013-12-01

    Deciding how best to respond to the challenge of climate change requires anticipating not only how climate might change in the future, but how society might change as well. Changes in population and economic growth, innovation, technological development, governance, culture, and lifestyle all will affect the energy use and land use that drive climate change, as well as society's capacity to reduce emissions or adapt to climate change impacts. Developing a set of alternative scenarios for societal development is one way to capture and explore the uncertainty in future conditions. The climate change research community has produced a new set of five such scenarios, called Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), that is intended to underpin scientific studies, assessments, and policy dialogues for the next decade or more. The SSPs include both qualitative narratives and quantitative projections of key elements such as population, economic growth, urbanization, and educational attainment. They are designed to span a wide range of future conditions in terms of the challenges they present to both adaptation and mitigation. The SSPs are one component of a larger scenario framework which also includes a set of radiative forcing pathways and climate model simulations based on them. Alternative climate futures will be integrated with the alternative societal futures represented by the SSPs to investigate climate change impacts as well as mitigation and adaptation response options.

  5. Global economic effects of changes in crops, pasture, and forests due to changing climate, carbon dioxide, and ozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reilly, J.; Paltsev, S.; Felzer, B.; Wang, X.; Kicklighter, D.; Melillo, J.; Prinn, R.; Sarofim, M.; Sokolov, A.; Wang, C.

    2007-01-01

    Multiple environmental changes will have consequences for global vegetation. To the extent that crop yields and pasture and forest productivity are affected, there can be important economic consequences. We examine the combined effects of changes in climate, increases in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), and changes in tropospheric ozone on crop, pasture, and forest lands and the consequences for the global and regional economies. We examine scenarios where there is limited or little effort to control these substances, and policy scenarios that limit emissions of CO 2 and ozone precursors. We find the effects of climate and CO 2 to be generally positive, and the effects of ozone to be very detrimental. Unless ozone is strongly controlled, damage could offset CO 2 and climate benefits. We find that resource allocation among sectors in the economy, and trade among countries, can strongly affect the estimate of economic effect in a country

  6. Rapid changes in the level of Kluane Lake in Yukon Territory over the last millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clague, John J.; Luckman, Brian H.; Van Dorp, Richard D.; Gilbert, Robert; Froese, Duane; Jensen, Britta J. L.; Reyes, Alberto V.

    2006-09-01

    The level of Kluane Lake, the largest lake in Yukon Territory, was lower than at present during most of the Holocene. The lake rose rapidly in the late seventeenth century to a level 12 m above present, drowning forest and stranding driftwood on a conspicuous high-stand beach, remnants of which are preserved at the south end of the lake. Kluane Lake fell back to near its present level by the end of the eighteenth century and has fluctuated within a range of about 3 m over the last 50 yr. The primary control on historic fluctuations in lake level is the discharge of Slims River, the largest source of water to the lake. We use tree ring and radiocarbon ages, stratigraphy and sub-bottom acoustic data to evaluate two explanations for the dramatic changes in the level of Kluane Lake. Our data support the hypothesis of Hugh Bostock, who suggested in 1969 that the maximum Little Ice Age advance of Kaskawulsh Glacier deposited large amounts of sediment in the Slims River valley and established the present course of Slims River into Kluane Lake. Bostock argued that these events caused the lake to rise and eventually overflow to the north. The overflowing waters incised the Duke River fan at the north end of Kluane Lake and lowered the lake to its present level. This study highlights the potentially dramatic impacts of climate change on regional hydrology during the Little Ice Age in glacierised mountains.

  7. The Icelandic economic collapse, smoking, and the role of labor-market changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ólafsdóttir, Thorhildur; Hrafnkelsson, Birgir; Ásgeirsdóttir, Tinna Laufey

    2015-05-01

    Smoking is related to health deterioration through increased risk of various diseases. Changes in this health behavior could contribute to the documented health improvements during economic downturns. Furthermore, the reasons for changes in behavior are not well understood. We explore smoking behavior in Iceland before and after the sudden and unexpected economic crisis in 2008. Furthermore, to explore the mechanisms through which smoking could be affected we focus on the role of labor-market changes. Both real income and working hours fell significantly and economic theory suggests that such changes can affect health behaviors which in turn affect health. We use individual longitudinal data from 2007 to 2009, incidentally before and after the crisis hit. The data originates from a postal survey, collected by The Public Health Institute in Iceland. Two outcomes are explored: smoking participation and smoking intensity, using pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) and linear probability models. The detected reduction in both outcomes is not explained by the changes in labor-market variables. Other factors in the demand function for tobacco play a more important role. The most notable are real prices which increased in particular for imported goods because of the devaluation of the Icelandic currency as a result of the economic collapse.

  8. Epidemics in Ming and Qing China: Impacts of changes of climate and economic well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D; Li, Guodong; Winterhalder, Bruce; Lee, Harry F

    2015-07-01

    We investigated the mechanism of epidemics with the impacts of climate change and socio-economic fluctuations in the Ming and Qing Dynasties in China (AD 1368-1901). Using long-term and high-quality datasets, this study is the first quantitative research that verifies the 'climate change → economy → epidemics' mechanism in historical China by statistical methods that include correlation analysis, Granger causality analysis, ARX, and Poisson-ARX modeling. The analysis provides the evidences that climate change could only fundamentally lead to the epidemics spread and occurrence, but the depressed economic well-being is the direct trigger of epidemics spread and occurrence at the national and long term scale in historical China. Moreover, statistical modeling shows that economic well-being is more important than population pressure in the mechanism of epidemics. However, population pressure remains a key element in determining the social vulnerability of the epidemics occurrence under climate change. Notably, the findings not only support adaptation theories but also enhance our confidence to address climatic shocks if economic buffering capacity can be promoted steadily. The findings can be a basis for scientists and policymakers in addressing global and regional environmental changes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Changes of the agricultural enterprises economic environment originated by the agribusiness development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Věra Bečvářová

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Based upon analyses of the Common Agricultural Policy development and its economic tools reforming the process of changing is characterised there. It deals with the multifunctionality of agriculture as well as the influence of the CAP on environment of the production tasks of agriculture and food processing industry accomplishment. Paper generalises results of new trends of the agribusiness economic environment development and the opportunity of an effective utilization of production factors in agriculture. It deals with the sources and economic implications of partial enhancement of interest and redirection of support within framework and type of tools of agrarian policy. New quality of structure of relevant information needs and economic support for agricultural enterprises decision making process are pointed out.

  10. Simulating climate change and socio-economic change impacts on flows and water quality in the Mahanadi River system, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Li; Whitehead, Paul G; Rodda, Harvey; Macadam, Ian; Sarkar, Sananda

    2018-05-12

    Delta systems formed by the deposition of sediments at the mouths of large catchments are vulnerable to sea level rise and other climate change impacts. Deltas often have some of the highest population densities in the world and the Mahanadi Delta in India is one of these, with a population of 39 million. The Mahanadi River is a major river in East Central India and flows through Chattisgarh and Orissa states before discharging into the Bay of Bengal. This study uses an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) to simulate flow dynamics and water quality (nitrogen and phosphorus) and to analyze the impacts of climate change and socio-economic drivers in the Mahanadi River system. Future flows affected by large population growth, effluent discharge increases and changes in irrigation water demand from changing land uses are assessed under shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Model results indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates at 2050s (2041-2060) and 2090s (2079-2098) which greatly enhances flood potential. The water availability under low flow conditions will be worsened because of increased water demand from population growth and increased irrigation in the future. Decreased concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus are expected due to increased flow hence dilution. Socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality but less impact on the river flow. For example, higher population growth, increased sewage treatment discharges, land use change and enhanced atmospheric deposition would result in the deterioration of water quality, while the upgrade of the sewage treatment works lead to improved water quality. In summary, socio-economic scenarios would change future water quality of the Mahanadi River and alter nutrient fluxes transported into the delta region. This study has serious implications for people's livelihoods in the deltaic area and could impact coastal and Bay of Bengal water ecology. Copyright © 2018

  11. A new oxidation flow reactor for measuring secondary aerosol formation of rapidly changing emission sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonen, Pauli; Saukko, Erkka; Karjalainen, Panu; Timonen, Hilkka; Bloss, Matthew; Aakko-Saksa, Päivi; Rönkkö, Topi; Keskinen, Jorma; Dal Maso, Miikka

    2017-04-01

    Oxidation flow reactors (OFRs) or environmental chambers can be used to estimate secondary aerosol formation potential of different emission sources. Emissions from anthropogenic sources, such as vehicles, often vary on short timescales. For example, to identify the vehicle driving conditions that lead to high potential secondary aerosol emissions, rapid oxidation of exhaust is needed. However, the residence times in environmental chambers and in most oxidation flow reactors are too long to study these transient effects ( ˜ 100 s in flow reactors and several hours in environmental chambers). Here, we present a new oxidation flow reactor, TSAR (TUT Secondary Aerosol Reactor), which has a short residence time ( ˜ 40 s) and near-laminar flow conditions. These improvements are achieved by reducing the reactor radius and volume. This allows studying, for example, the effect of vehicle driving conditions on the secondary aerosol formation potential of the exhaust. We show that the flow pattern in TSAR is nearly laminar and particle losses are negligible. The secondary organic aerosol (SOA) produced in TSAR has a similar mass spectrum to the SOA produced in the state-of-the-art reactor, PAM (potential aerosol mass). Both reactors produce the same amount of mass, but TSAR has a higher time resolution. We also show that TSAR is capable of measuring the secondary aerosol formation potential of a vehicle during a transient driving cycle and that the fast response of TSAR reveals how different driving conditions affect the amount of formed secondary aerosol. Thus, TSAR can be used to study rapidly changing emission sources, especially the vehicular emissions during transient driving.

  12. Rapid changes in water hardness and alkalinity: Calcite formation is lethal to Daphnia magna.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogart, Sarah J; Woodman, Samuel; Steinkey, Dylan; Meays, Cindy; Pyle, Greg G

    2016-07-15

    There is growing concern that freshwater ecosystems may be negatively affected by ever-increasing anthropogenic inputs of extremely hard, highly alkaline effluent containing large quantities of Ca(2+), Mg(2+), CO3(2-), and HCO3(-) ions. In this study, the toxicity of rapid and extreme shifts in water hardness (38-600mg/L as CaCO3) and alkalinity (30-420mg/L as CaCO3) to Daphnia magna was tested, both independently and in combination. Within these ranges, where no precipitation event occurred, shifts in water hardness and/or alkalinity were not toxic to D. magna. In contrast, 98-100% of D. magna died within 96h after exposure to 600mg/L as CaCO3 water hardness and 420mg/L as CaCO3 alkalinity (LT50 of 60h with a 95% CI of 54.2-66.0h). In this treatment, a CaCO3 (calcite) precipitate formed in the water column which was ingested by and thoroughly coated the D. magna. Calcite collected from a mining impacted stream contained embedded organisms, suggesting field streams may also experience similar conditions and possibly increased mortality as observed in the lab tests. Although further investigation is required to determine the exact fate of aquatic organisms exposed to rapid calcite precipitation in the field, we caution that negative effects may occur more quickly or at lower concentrations of water hardness and alkalinity in which we observed effects in D. magna, because some species, such as aquatic insects, are more sensitive than cladocerans to changes in ionic strength. Our results provide evidence that both calcite precipitation and the major ion balance of waters should be managed in industrially affected ecosystems and we support the development of a hardness+alkalinity guideline for the protection of aquatic life. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Measuring Land Change in Coastal Zone around a Rapidly Urbanized Bay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faming Huang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Urban development is a major cause for eco-degradation in many coastal regions. Understanding urbanization dynamics and underlying driving factors is crucial for urban planning and management. Land-use dynamic degree indices and intensity analysis were used to measure land changes occurred in 1990, 2002, 2009, and 2017 in the coastal zone around Quanzhou bay, which is a rapidly urbanized bay in Southeast China. The comprehensive land-use dynamic degree and interval level intensity analysis both revealed that land change was accelerating across the three time intervals in a three-kilometer-wide zone along the coastal line (zone A, while land change was fastest during the second time interval 2002–2009 in a separate terrestrial area within coastal zone (zone B. Driven by urbanization, built-up gains and cropland losses were active for all time intervals in both zones. Mudflat losses were active except in the first time interval in zone A due to the intensive sea reclamation. The gain of mangrove was active while the loss of mangrove is dormant for all three intervals in zone A. Transition level analysis further revealed the similarities and differences in processes within patterns of land changes for both zones. The transition from cropland to built-up was systematically targeted and stationary while the transition from woodland to built-up was systematically avoiding transition in both zones. Built-up tended to target aquaculture for the second and third time intervals in zone A but avoid Aquaculture for all intervals in zone B. Land change in zone A was more significant than that in zone B during the second and third time intervals at three-level intensity. The application of intensity analysis can enhance our understanding of the patterns and processes in land changes and suitable land development plans in the Quanzhou bay area. This type of investigation is useful to provide information for developing sound land use policy to achieve urban

  14. Pricing strategy for aesthetic surgery: economic analysis of a resident clinic's change in fees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krieger, L M; Shaw, W W

    1999-02-01

    The laws of microeconomics explain how prices affect consumer purchasing decisions and thus overall revenues and profits. These principles can easily be applied to the behavior aesthetic plastic surgery patients. The UCLA Division of Plastic Surgery resident aesthetics clinic recently offered a radical price change for its services. The effects of this change on demand for services and revenue were tracked. Economic analysis was applied to see if this price change resulted in the maximization of total revenues, or if additional price changes could further optimize them. Economic analysis of pricing involves several steps. The first step is to assess demand. The number of procedures performed by a given practice at different price levels can be plotted to create a demand curve. From this curve, price sensitivities of consumers can be calculated (price elasticity of demand). This information can then be used to determine the pricing level that creates demand for the exact number of procedures that yield optimal revenues. In economic parlance, revenues are maximized by pricing services such that elasticity is equal to 1 (the point of unit elasticity). At the UCLA resident clinic, average total fees per procedure were reduced by 40 percent. This resulted in a 250-percent increase in procedures performed for representative 4-month periods before and after the price change. Net revenues increased by 52 percent. Economic analysis showed that the price elasticity of demand before the price change was 6.2. After the price change it was 1. We conclude that the magnitude of the price change resulted in a fee schedule that yielded the highest possible revenues from the resident clinic. These results show that changes in price do affect total revenue and that the nature of these effects can be understood, predicted, and maximized using the tools of microeconomics.

  15. Public policy and clean technology promotion. The synergy between environmental economics and evolutionary economics of technological change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rio Gonzalez, Pablo del [Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo (Spain). Facultad de Ciencias Juridicas y Sociales de Toledo

    2004-07-01

    Obstacles to clean technology development, innovation and diffusion are not only related to the lack of internalisation of environmental externalities in production costs, as defended by traditional environmental economics. Empirical studies show that many other obstacles prevent these technologies from penetrating the market. The relevance of these obstacles differs between sectors, firms and technologies. Consequently, a more focused approach is proposed. By taking a look at the specific, real-world barriers to clean technologies, a policy framework as well as some specific measures that target those barriers are suggested. These instruments are useful and complementary in a policy framework that, in addition to specific instruments, takes into account the influence of the style of regulation and the configuration of actors in the environmental technological change process. This paper proposes a coherent framework integrating environmental policy and technology policy instruments. This is deemed necessary in the technological transition to sustainable development. (author)

  16. Towards an integrated economic assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, H.; Piontek, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Popp, A.; Bauer, N.; Dietrich, J.; Mueller, C.; Schmitz, C.

    2012-12-01

    For a detailed understanding of the effects of climate change on global agricultural production systems, it is essential to consider the variability of climate change patterns as projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs), their bio-physical impact on crops and the response in land-use patterns and markets. So far, approaches that account for the interaction of bio-physical and economic impacts are largely lacking. We present an integrative analysis by using a soft-coupled system of a biophysical impact model (LPJmL, Bondeau et al. 2007), an economically driven land use model (MAgPIE, Lotze-Campen et al. 2008) and an integrated assessment model (ReMIND-R, Leimbach et al. 2010) to study climate change impacts and economic damages in the agricultural sector. First, the dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL is used to derive climate change impacts on crop yields for wheat, maize, soy, rice and other major crops. A range of different climate projections is used, taken from the dataset provided by the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, www.isi-mip.org), which bias-corrected the latest CMIP5 climate data (Taylor et al. 2011). Crop yield impacts cover scenarios with and without CO2 fertilization as well as different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and different GCMs. With increasing temperature towards the end of the century yields generally decrease in tropical and subtropical regions, while they tend to benefit in higher latitudes. LPJmL results have been compared to other global crop models in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP, www.agmip.org). Second, changes in crop yields are analysed with the spatially explicit agro-economic model MAgPIE, which covers their interaction with economic development and changes in food demand. Changes in prices as well as welfare changes of producer and consumer surplus are taken as economic indicators. Due to climate-change related reductions in

  17. Europe's Southeastern Gateway: Responding to Rapidly Changing Patterns of World Shipping. The University's Role

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger E. HAMLIN

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available World trade and transportation are changing dramatically. Energy prices and transport sustainability concerns are reinvigorating ocean freighter shipping. An ever-increasing portion of trade is in containers, and container ships are getting larger quickly. Many ports, nations and continents are not keeping up with ship size increases putting them at a trade disadvantage. Major canals and seaways must also upgrade or be rendered obsolete, causing a change in the pattern of world trade. Ports have to do more than expand vessel size limits. Port regions must also invest in infrastructure that improves multi-modal access to the port and augments hand-off of containers to smaller seaway ships, trains and trucks. With heightened security and evolving emphasis on flexible and efficient logistics, ports must become high-tech logistics hubs with improved real-time data about port throughput. Constanţa, Romania provides an example of an attempt to respond to this rapid change. Near the Danube Delta, on the Black Sea, Constanţa offers a potential southeastern gateway to Europe for the Black Sea, the Eastern Mediterranean and beyond. Ships from Asia, entering via the Suez Canal can easily access Constanţa, and thus save more than ten days of shipping time for destinations in southeastern Europe compared to shipping through Rotterdam or Hamburg. But Constanţa needs to make all the improvements mentioned above. Universities have several roles in this endeavor, including identifying and forecasting trends, providing the technical knowledge to develop high-tech logistics hubs, pursing publicprivate partnerships for infrastructure development and offering training.

  18. Rapid Environmental Change Drives Increased Land Use by an Arctic Marine Predator.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd C Atwood

    Full Text Available In the Arctic Ocean's southern Beaufort Sea (SB, the length of the sea ice melt season (i.e., period between the onset of sea ice break-up in summer and freeze-up in fall has increased substantially since the late 1990s. Historically, polar bears (Ursus maritimus of the SB have mostly remained on the sea ice year-round (except for those that came ashore to den, but recent changes in the extent and phenology of sea ice habitat have coincided with evidence that use of terrestrial habitat is increasing. We characterized the spatial behavior of polar bears spending summer and fall on land along Alaska's north coast to better understand the nexus between rapid environmental change and increased use of terrestrial habitat. We found that the percentage of radiocollared adult females from the SB subpopulation coming ashore has tripled over 15 years. Moreover, we detected trends of earlier arrival on shore, increased length of stay, and later departure back to sea ice, all of which were related to declines in the availability of sea ice habitat over the continental shelf and changes to sea ice phenology. Since the late 1990s, the mean duration of the open-water season in the SB increased by 36 days, and the mean length of stay on shore increased by 31 days. While on shore, the distribution of polar bears was influenced by the availability of scavenge subsidies in the form of subsistence-harvested bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus remains aggregated at sites along the coast. The declining spatio-temporal availability of sea ice habitat and increased availability of human-provisioned resources are likely to result in increased use of land. Increased residency on land is cause for concern given that, while there, bears may be exposed to a greater array of risk factors including those associated with increased human activities.

  19. Dynamic Performance of Maximum Power Point Trackers in TEG Systems Under Rapidly Changing Temperature Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Man, E. A.; Sera, D.; Mathe, L.; Schaltz, E.; Rosendahl, L.

    2016-03-01

    Characterization of thermoelectric generators (TEG) is widely discussed and equipment has been built that can perform such analysis. One method is often used to perform such characterization: constant temperature with variable thermal power input. Maximum power point tracking (MPPT) methods for TEG systems are mostly tested under steady-state conditions for different constant input temperatures. However, for most TEG applications, the input temperature gradient changes, exposing the MPPT to variable tracking conditions. An example is the exhaust pipe on hybrid vehicles, for which, because of the intermittent operation of the internal combustion engine, the TEG and its MPPT controller are exposed to a cyclic temperature profile. Furthermore, there are no guidelines on how fast the MPPT must be under such dynamic conditions. In the work discussed in this paper, temperature gradients for TEG integrated in several applications were evaluated; the results showed temperature variation up to 5°C/s for TEG systems. Electrical characterization of a calcium-manganese oxide TEG was performed at steady-state for different input temperatures and a maximum temperature of 401°C. By using electrical data from characterization of the oxide module, a solar array simulator was emulated to perform as a TEG. A trapezoidal temperature profile with different gradients was used on the TEG simulator to evaluate the dynamic MPPT efficiency. It is known that the perturb and observe (P&O) algorithm may have difficulty accurately tracking under rapidly changing conditions. To solve this problem, a compromise must be found between the magnitude of the increment and the sampling frequency of the control algorithm. The standard P&O performance was evaluated experimentally by using different temperature gradients for different MPPT sampling frequencies, and efficiency values are provided for all cases. The results showed that a tracking speed of 2.5 Hz can be successfully implemented on a TEG

  20. DNA microarray unravels rapid changes in transcriptome of MK-801 treated rat brain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Yuka; Kulikova, Sofya P; Shibato, Junko; Rakwal, Randeep; Satoh, Hiroyuki; Pinault, Didier; Masuo, Yoshinori

    2015-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the impact of MK-801 on gene expression patterns genome wide in rat brain regions. METHODS: Rats were treated with an intraperitoneal injection of MK-801 [0.08 (low-dose) and 0.16 (high-dose) mg/kg] or NaCl (vehicle control). In a first series of experiment, the frontoparietal electrocorticogram was recorded 15 min before and 60 min after injection. In a second series of experiments, the whole brain of each animal was rapidly removed at 40 min post-injection, and different regions were separated: amygdala, cerebral cortex, hippocampus, hypothalamus, midbrain and ventral striatum on ice followed by DNA microarray (4 × 44 K whole rat genome chip) analysis. RESULTS: Spectral analysis revealed that a single systemic injection of MK-801 significantly and selectively augmented the power of baseline gamma frequency (30-80 Hz) oscillations in the frontoparietal electroencephalogram. DNA microarray analysis showed the largest number (up- and down- regulations) of gene expressions in the cerebral cortex (378), midbrain (376), hippocampus (375), ventral striatum (353), amygdala (301), and hypothalamus (201) under low-dose (0.08 mg/kg) of MK-801. Under high-dose (0.16 mg/kg), ventral striatum (811) showed the largest number of gene expression changes. Gene expression changes were functionally categorized to reveal expression of genes and function varies with each brain region. CONCLUSION: Acute MK-801 treatment increases synchrony of baseline gamma oscillations, and causes very early changes in gene expressions in six individual rat brain regions, a first report. PMID:26629322

  1. Coastal regime shifts: rapid responses of coastal wetlands to changes in mangrove cover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Hongyu; Weaver, Carolyn; Charles, Sean P; Whitt, Ashley; Dastidar, Sayantani; D'Odorico, Paolo; Fuentes, Jose D; Kominoski, John S; Armitage, Anna R; Pennings, Steven C

    2017-03-01

    Global changes are causing broad-scale shifts in vegetation communities worldwide, including coastal habitats where the borders between mangroves and salt marsh are in flux. Coastal habitats provide numerous ecosystem services of high economic value, but the consequences of variation in mangrove cover are poorly known. We experimentally manipulated mangrove cover in large plots to test a set of linked hypotheses regarding the effects of changes in mangrove cover. We found that changes in mangrove cover had strong effects on microclimate, plant community, sediment accretion, soil organic content, and bird abundance within 2 yr. At higher mangrove cover, wind speed declined and light interception by vegetation increased. Air and soil temperatures had hump-shaped relationships with mangrove cover. The cover of salt marsh plants decreased at higher mangrove cover. Wrack cover, the distance that wrack was distributed from the water's edge, and sediment accretion decreased at higher mangrove cover. Soil organic content increased with mangrove cover. Wading bird abundance decreased at higher mangrove cover. Many of these relationships were non-linear, with the greatest effects when mangrove cover varied from zero to intermediate values, and lesser effects when mangrove cover varied from intermediate to high values. Temporal and spatial variation in measured variables often peaked at intermediate mangrove cover, with ecological consequences that are largely unexplored. Because different processes varied in different ways with mangrove cover, the "optimum" cover of mangroves from a societal point of view will depend on which ecosystem services are most desired. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  2. The Effect of Coastline Changes to Local Community's Social-Economic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, M. I.; Rahmat, N. H.

    2016-09-01

    The coastal area is absolutely essential for the purposes of resident, recreation, tourism, fisheries and agriculture as a source of socio-economic development of local community. Some of the activities will affect the coastline changes. Coastline changes may occur due to two main factors include natural factors and also by the factor of human activities in coastal areas. Sea level rise, erosion and sedimentation are among the factors that can contribute to the changes in the coastline naturally, while the reclamation and development in coastal areas are factors of coastline changes due to human activities. Resident area and all activities in coastal areas will provide economic resources to the residents of coastal areas. However, coastline changes occur in the coastal areas will affect socio-economic for local community. A significant effect can be seen through destruction of infrastructure, loss of land, and destroy of crops. Batu Pahat is an area with significant changes of coastline. The changes of coastline from 1985 to 2013 can be determined by using topographical maps in 1985 and satellite images where the changes images are taken in 2011 and 2013 respectively. To identify the changes of risk areas, Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) is used to indicate vulnerability for coastal areas. This change indirectly affects the source of income in their agricultural cash crops such as oil palm and coconut. Their crops destroyed and reduced due to impact of changes in the coastline. Identification of risk coastal areas needs to be done in order for the society and local authorities to be prepared for coastline changes.

  3. THE EFFECT OF COASTLINE CHANGES TO LOCAL COMMUNITY’S SOCIAL-ECONOMIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. I. Hassan

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The coastal area is absolutely essential for the purposes of resident, recreation, tourism, fisheries and agriculture as a source of socio-economic development of local community. Some of the activities will affect the coastline changes. Coastline changes may occur due to two main factors include natural factors and also by the factor of human activities in coastal areas. Sea level rise, erosion and sedimentation are among the factors that can contribute to the changes in the coastline naturally, while the reclamation and development in coastal areas are factors of coastline changes due to human activities. Resident area and all activities in coastal areas will provide economic resources to the residents of coastal areas. However, coastline changes occur in the coastal areas will affect socio-economic for local community. A significant effect can be seen through destruction of infrastructure, loss of land, and destroy of crops. Batu Pahat is an area with significant changes of coastline. The changes of coastline from 1985 to 2013 can be determined by using topographical maps in 1985 and satellite images where the changes images are taken in 2011 and 2013 respectively. To identify the changes of risk areas, Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI is used to indicate vulnerability for coastal areas. This change indirectly affects the source of income in their agricultural cash crops such as oil palm and coconut. Their crops destroyed and reduced due to impact of changes in the coastline. Identification of risk coastal areas needs to be done in order for the society and local authorities to be prepared for coastline changes.

  4. The role of employee assistance programs in the era of rapid change in the health care delivery system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumerall, S W; Israel, A R; Brewer, R; Prew, R E

    1999-01-01

    With the rapid changes occurring in the American healthcare system, questions regarding various aspects of care have arisen. These changes have led to the need for individuals working within an Employee Assistance Program (EAP) to respond quickly and effectively to crisis situations. This article summarizes the different roles and responsibilities of EAP workers in the healthcare marketplace.

  5. Climate change and macro-economic cycles in pre-industrial europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D; Lee, Harry F; Li, Guodong

    2014-01-01

    Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales.

  6. Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esperón-Rodríguez, Manuel; Bonifacio-Bautista, Martín; Barradas, Víctor L

    2016-03-01

    Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations (1922-2008) and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of ~9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.

  7. Three dimensional evaluation of alveolar bone changes in response to different rapid palatal expansion activation rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian LaBlonde

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Introduction: The aim of this multi-center retrospective study was to quantify the changes in alveolar bone height and thickness after using two different rapid palatal expansion (RPE activation protocols, and to determine whether a more rapid rate of expansion is likely to cause more adverse effects, such as alveolar tipping, dental tipping, fenestration and dehiscence of anchorage teeth. Methods: The sample consisted of pre- and post-expansion records from 40 subjects (age 8-15 years who underwent RPE using a 4-banded Hyrax appliance as part of their orthodontic treatment to correct posterior buccal crossbites. Subjects were divided into two groups according to their RPE activation rates (0.5 mm/day and 0.8 mm/day; n = 20 each group. Three-dimensional images for all included subjects were evaluated using Dolphin Imaging Software 11.7 Premium. Maxillary base width, buccal and palatal cortical bone thickness, alveolar bone height, and root angulation and length were measured. Significance of the changes in the measurements was evaluated using Wilcoxon signed-rank test and comparisons between groups were done using ANOVA. Significance was defined at p ≤ 0.05. Results: RPE activation rates of 0.5 mm per day (Group 1 and 0.8 mm per day (Group 2 caused significant increase in arch width following treatment; however, Group 2 showed greater increases compared to Group 1 (p < 0.01. Buccal alveolar height and width decreased significantly in both groups. Both treatment protocols resulted in significant increases in buccal-lingual angulation of teeth; however, Group 2 showed greater increases compared to Group 1 (p < 0.01. Conclusion: Both activation rates are associated with significant increase in intra-arch widths. However, 0.8 mm/day resulted in greater increases. The 0.8 mm/day activation rate also resulted in more increased dental tipping and decreased buccal alveolar bone thickness over 0.5 mm/day.

  8. Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...... to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation...

  9. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... approach for identification and assessment of climate change adaptation options by incorporating climate change impacts, flood inundation modelling, economic tool and risk assessment and management. The framework is further extended and adapted by embedding a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the total...

  10. Dental arch changes associated with rapid maxillary expansion: A retrospective model analysis study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivor M D′Souza

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Transverse deficiency of the maxilla is a common clinical problem in orthodontics and dentofacial orthopedics. Transverse maxillary deficiency, isolated or associated with other dentofacial deformities, results in esthetic and functional impairment giving rise to several clinical manifestations such as asymmetrical facial growth, positional and functional mandibular deviations, altered dentofacial esthetics, adverse periodontal responses, unstable dental tipping, and other functional problems. Orthopedic maxillary expansion is the preferred treatment approach to increase the maxillary transverse dimension in young patients by splitting of the mid palatal suture. This orthopedic procedure has lately been subject of renewed interest in orthodontic treatment mechanics because of its potential for increasing arch perimeter to alleviate crowding in the maxillary arch without adversely affecting facial profile. Hence, the present investigation was conducted to establish a correlation between transverse expansion and changes in the arch perimeter, arch width and arch length. Methods: For this purpose, 10 subjects (five males, five females were selected who had been treated by rapid maxillary expansion (RME using hyrax rapid palatal expander followed by fixed mechanotherapy (PEA. Pretreatment (T1, postexpansion (T2, and posttreatment (T3 dental models were compared for dental changes brought about by RME treatment and its stability at the end of fixed mechanotherapy. After model measurements were made, the changes between T1-T2, T2-T3 and T1-T3 were determined for each patient. The mean difference between T1-T2, T2-T3 and T1-T3 were compared to assess the effects of RME on dental arch measurements. Results are expressed as mean ± standard deviation and are compared by repeated measures analysis of variance followed by a post-hoc test. Arch perimeter changes are correlated with changes in arch widths at the canine, premolar and molar

  11. Economic values for growth and grade changes of sugar maple in the Lake States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard M. Godman; Joseph J. Mendel

    1978-01-01

    Current and expected rates of value increase over a 10-year period were developed for sawtimber-size sugar maple based on variable growth rates, expected merchantable height changes, and butt log grade improvement. These economic guides, along with silvicultural considerations, provide a value basis for selecting trees during thinning and determining final harvest...

  12. Economic analysis of adaptive strategies for flood risk management under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol, van der T.D.; Ierland, van E.C.; Gabbert, S.G.M.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change requires reconsideration of flood risk management strategies. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA), an economic decision-support tool, has been widely applied to assess these strategies. This paper aims to describe and discuss probabilistic extensions of CBA to identify welfare-maximising

  13. Social and Economic Influences in Curriculum Change in Japan: Case History of Environmental Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimazu, Yasuo

    1981-01-01

    Surveys social, economic and environmental characteristics of Japan in the 1960s and 1970s and describes their influence on curriculum changes in secondary science education. Discusses Japanese attitudes towards nature as a foundation for environmental education, the impact of western culture on this attitude, and the future of environmental…

  14. Governance through Economic Paradigms: Addressing Climate Change by Accounting for Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristine Belesova

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is a major challenge for sustainable development, impacting human health, wellbeing, security, and livelihoods. While the post-2015 development agenda sets out action on climate change as one of the Sustainable Development Goals, there is little provision on how this can be achieved in tandem with the desired economic progress and the required improvements in health and wellbeing. This paper examines synergies and tensions between the goals addressing climate change and economic progress. We identify reductionist approaches in economics, such as ‘externalities’, reliance on the metric of the Gross Domestic Product, positive discount rates, and short-term profit targets as some of the key sources of tensions between these goals. Such reductionist approaches could be addressed by intersectoral governance mechanisms. Health in All Policies, health-sensitive macro-economic progress indicators, and accounting for long-term and non-monetary values are some of the approaches that could be adapted and used in governance for the SDGs. Policy framing of climate change and similar issues should facilitate development of intersectoral governance approaches.

  15. Trends in riverine element fluxes: A chronicle of regional socio-economic changes.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kopáček, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Porcal, Petr; Posch, Maximilian

    2017-01-01

    We show how concentrations of water solutes in the Vltava River (Czech Republic) and their riverine outputs from the catchment were modified by socio-economic changes, land use, and hydrology between 1960 and 2015. In the early 1960s, HCO3 and Ca were the dominant ions. During 1960-1989 (a period of

  16. Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Estrada, Francisco; Tol, Richard S.J.; Botzen, Wouter J.W.

    2017-01-01

    Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be

  17. Sustainable development and quality of life : expected effects of prospective changes in economic and environmental conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vlek, C.A.J.; Skolnik, M; Gatersleben, B.C.M.

    1998-01-01

    In the context of "sustainable development", we studied which attributes are important to people's quality of life (QoL) and which changes in QoL people would expect from future economic and environmental improvements or deteriorations. About 200 adult subjects evaluated the relative importance of

  18. Structural Change, Economic Growth and the Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Theoretical Perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.L.F. de Groot (Henri)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThe question of whether economic growth will ultimately resolve environmental problems has recently been discussed in a mainly empirical literature. One of the mechanisms that can explain the finding of an inverted U-shaped relationship between income and emissions relies on the changes

  19. Socio-economic and cultural aspecrs of changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moshøj, Charlotte Margaret

    2009-01-01

    ! is chapter evaluates the possibility for projecting socio-economic and cultural impacts on Greenland’s society caused directly or indirectly by changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet. ! ere are, as yet, no well-documented direct causative links between the conditions for a society dictated by nature...

  20. A Self-Ethnographic Investigation of Continuing Education Program in Engineering Arising from Economic Structural Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaihlavirta, Auri; Isomöttönen, Ville; Kärkkäinen, Tommi

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides a self-ethnographic investigation of a continuing education program in engineering in Central Finland. The program was initiated as a response to local economic structural change, in order to offer re-education possibilities for a higher educated workforce currently under unemployment threat. We encountered considerable…

  1. Technological, political and economic changes and their implications for the evolution of broadcasting services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tadayoni, Reza

    2000-01-01

    The subject of this Ph.D. thesis is changes in the market for broadcasting services as a result of technological, political, and economic drivers. Broadcasting services can be categorised as a part of the ICT-based information and knowledge intensive services that have gone through radical changes...... and demand sites, scarcity of transmission resources, and the historical aspects that make the development of the broadcasting service market different from other information and knowledge intensive services....

  2. The economic impact of climate change on food security in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Chuen Khee, Pek; Yet Mee, Lim; Chee Keong, Choong

    2011-01-01

    This study estimates the economic impact of climate change on food security in Malaysia. The contingent valuation technique is employed on 456 randomly selected households in the vicinities of Selangor Darul Ehsan. The study finds that climate change mitigation programmes to ensure food security are important. The public is willing to pay extra rice price in substitution of a rice subsidy reduction impact for the mitigation programmes. More specifically, the study ascertains that households o...

  3. Editor's Choice The Role of Economic Policy in Climate Change Adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Kai A. Konrad; Marcel Thum

    2014-01-01

    This article assesses the role of the public sector in adaptation to climate change. We first offer a definition and categorization of climate change adaptation. We then consider the primary economic principles that can guide the assignment of adaptation tasks to either the private or the public sector, as well as those guiding assignment within the public sector itself. We find that the role of the state in adaptation policy is limited. We identify information policy, the provision of a suit...

  4. Economic and labour market implications of climate change on the tourism sector of the Maltese Islands

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, Andrew;

    2015-01-01

    This paper reviews threats to, and consequences of, current climate and environmental change on tourism destinations. The paper reviews recent published research on the impacts of climate and environmental change and consequences of such on the physical social and economic character of tourism operations using the Maltese Islands as a case. The validity and practicality of management options to tackle the complex nature and juxtaposition between tourism growth, climate...

  5. Assessment of environmental change and its socio-economic impacts in the mangrove ecological zone of the Niger Delta, Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Godstime Kadiri

    The Niger Delta, located in the central part of Southern Nigeria, is endowed with immense Mangrove resources, estimated to be the fourth largest in the world. The term Mangrove refers to salt tolerant species of trees or shrubs that grow on shores and in estuaries located in the coastal tropics and sub-tropical regions of the world. They support highly productive marine food chains. However, Mangrove ecosystems are in serious decline around the world due to the rapid increase in maritime commerce and exploration of mineral resources in the last few decades. These pressures often have immediate consequences on sensitive coastal environments and can potentially impact future human use of coastal space and resources. This dynamic process presents unique opportunities for research to explore the nature and consequences of these pressures. This dissertation focused on the Mangrove ecological zone of the Niger Delta, where resource exploitation and indigenous use of the environment are in direct conflict with important socio-economic implications. Environmental accounting metrics derived from the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework were used to assess changes in the spatial extent of the Niger Delta Mangrove ecosystem and the socio-economic impacts of the observed changes. Landsat remotely sensed satellite data from the mid-1980s through 2003 was used to assess change in the spatial extent of the Mangrove vegetation in the region. A total of 21,340 hectares of Mangrove forest was determined to be lost over the study period. Field research in the region confirmed that this loss was primarily driven by urbanization and activities of the multinational oil and gas corporations operating in the region. To estimate the socio-economic impacts of the Mangrove loss in the region, neoclassical economic valuation and participatory social valuation approaches were adopted. Results from the economic valuation revealed that the net present value of future income

  6. Climate challenge 2012: growth and climate change - Socio-economical impacts of climate change. Conference proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orange-Louboutin, Mylene; Robinet, Olivier; Delalande, Daniel; Reysset, Bertrand; De Perthuis, Christian; Le Treut, Herve; Cottenceau, Jean-Baptiste; Ayong, Alain; Daubaire, Aurelien; Gaudin, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    The contributions of this conference session proposed comments and discussion on the relationship between climate change and 'green' growth, on the status of scientific knowledge on climate change (from global to local), on the way to perform carbon print assessment and to decide which actions to implement, on the costs and opportunity of impacts of climate change, on the economy of adaptation, on the benefits and costs of the adaptation policy, and on impacts of climate change on employment in quantitative terms and in terms of profession types

  7. Shared Cultural History as a Predictor of Political and Economic Changes among Nation States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luke J Matthews

    Full Text Available Political and economic risks arise from social phenomena that spread within and across countries. Regime changes, protest movements, and stock market and default shocks can have ramifications across the globe. Quantitative models have made great strides at predicting these events in recent decades but incorporate few explicitly measured cultural variables. However, in recent years cultural evolutionary theory has emerged as a major paradigm to understand the inheritance and diffusion of human cultural variation. Here, we combine these two strands of research by proposing that measures of socio-linguistic affiliation derived from language phylogenies track variation in cultural norms that influence how political and economic changes diffuse across the globe. First, we show that changes over time in a country's democratic or autocratic character correlate with simultaneous changes among their socio-linguistic affiliations more than with changes of spatially proximate countries. Second, we find that models of changes in sovereign default status favor including socio-linguistic affiliations in addition to spatial data. These findings suggest that better measurement of cultural networks could be profoundly useful to policy makers who wish to diversify commercial, social, and other forms of investment across political and economic risks on an international scale.

  8. Shared Cultural History as a Predictor of Political and Economic Changes among Nation States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Luke J; Passmore, Sam; Richard, Paul M; Gray, Russell D; Atkinson, Quentin D

    2016-01-01

    Political and economic risks arise from social phenomena that spread within and across countries. Regime changes, protest movements, and stock market and default shocks can have ramifications across the globe. Quantitative models have made great strides at predicting these events in recent decades but incorporate few explicitly measured cultural variables. However, in recent years cultural evolutionary theory has emerged as a major paradigm to understand the inheritance and diffusion of human cultural variation. Here, we combine these two strands of research by proposing that measures of socio-linguistic affiliation derived from language phylogenies track variation in cultural norms that influence how political and economic changes diffuse across the globe. First, we show that changes over time in a country's democratic or autocratic character correlate with simultaneous changes among their socio-linguistic affiliations more than with changes of spatially proximate countries. Second, we find that models of changes in sovereign default status favor including socio-linguistic affiliations in addition to spatial data. These findings suggest that better measurement of cultural networks could be profoundly useful to policy makers who wish to diversify commercial, social, and other forms of investment across political and economic risks on an international scale.

  9. A multiple-proxy approach to understanding rapid Holocene climate change in Southeast Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davin, S. H.; Bradley, R. S.; Balascio, N. L.; de Wet, G.

    2012-12-01

    The susceptibility of the Arctic to climate change has made it an excellent workshop for paleoclimatological research. Although there have been previous studies concerning climate variability carried out in the Arctic, there remains a critical dearth of knowledge due the limited number of high-resolution Holocene climate-proxy records available from this region. This gap skews our understanding of observed and predicted climate change, and fuels uncertainty both in the realms of science and policy. This study takes a comprehensive approach to tracking Holocene climate variability in the vicinity of Tasiilaq, Southeast Greenland using a ~5.6 m sediment core from Lower Sermilik Lake. An age-depth model for the core has been established using 8 radiocarbon dates, the oldest of which was taken at 4 m down core and has been been dated to approximately 6.2 kyr BP. The bottom meter of the core below the final radiocarbon date contains a transition from cobbles and coarse sand to organic-rich laminations, indicating the termination of direct glacial influence and therefore likely marking the end of the last glacial period in this region. The remainder of the core is similarly organic-rich, with light-to-dark brown laminations ranging from 0.5 -1 cm in thickness and riddled with turbidites. Using this core in tandem with findings from an on-site assessment of the geomorphic history of the locale we attempt to assess and infer the rapid climatic shifts associated with the Holocene on a sub-centennial scale. Such changes include the termination of the last glacial period, the Mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum, the Neoglacial Period, the Medieval Climatic Optimum, and the Little Ice Age. A multiple proxy approach including magnetic susceptibility, bulk organic geochemistry, elemental profiles acquired by XRF scanning, grain-size, and spectral data will be used to characterize the sediment and infer paleoclimate conditions. Additionally, percent biogenic silica by weight has been

  10. Rapid changes in genetic architecture of behavioural syndromes following colonization of a novel environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson Green, K; Eroukhmanoff, F; Harris, S; Pettersson, L B; Svensson, E I

    2016-01-01

    Behavioural syndromes, that is correlated behaviours, may be a result from adaptive correlational selection, but in a new environmental setting, the trait correlation might act as an evolutionary constraint. However, knowledge about the quantitative genetic basis of behavioural syndromes, and the stability and evolvability of genetic correlations under different ecological conditions, is limited. We investigated the quantitative genetic basis of correlated behaviours in the freshwater isopod Asellus aquaticus. In some Swedish lakes, A. aquaticus has recently colonized a novel habitat and diverged into two ecotypes, presumably due to habitat-specific selection from predation. Using a common garden approach and animal model analyses, we estimated quantitative genetic parameters for behavioural traits and compared the genetic architecture between the ecotypes. We report that the genetic covariance structure of the behavioural traits has been altered in the novel ecotype, demonstrating divergence in behavioural correlations. Thus, our study confirms that genetic correlations behind behaviours can change rapidly in response to novel selective environments. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  11. Rapid Temperature Changes and the Early Activity on Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alí-Lagoa, V.; Delbo', M.; Libourel, G.

    2015-09-01

    The so-called “early activity” of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko has been observed to originate mostly in parts of the concave region or “neck” between its two lobes. Since activity is driven by the sublimation of volatiles, this is a puzzling result because this area is less exposed to the Sun and is therefore expected to be cooler on average. We used a thermophysical model that takes into account thermal inertia, global self-heating, and shadowing, to compute surface temperatures of the comet. We found that, for every rotation in the 2014 August-December period, some parts of the neck region undergo the fastest temperature variations of the comet’s surface precisely because they are shadowed by their surrounding terrains. Our work suggests that these fast temperature changes are correlated to the early activity of the comet, and we put forward the hypothesis that erosion related to thermal cracking is operating at a high rate on the neck region due to these rapid temperature variations. This may explain why the neck contains some ice—as opposed to most other parts of the surface—and why it is the main source of the comet’s early activity. In a broader context, these results indicate that thermal cracking can operate faster on atmosphereless bodies with significant concavities than implied by currently available estimates.

  12. Rapid modification in the olfactory signal of ants following a change in reproductive status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuvillier-Hot, Virginie; Renault, Valérie; Peeters, Christian

    2005-02-01

    In insect societies, the presence and condition of egg-layers can be assessed with pheromones. Exocrine secretions are expected to vary in time in order to give up-to-date information on an individual’s reproductive physiology. In the queenless monogynous ant Streblognathus peetersi, we allowed a previously infertile high-ranking worker to accede to the alpha rank, thus triggering the onset of her oogenesis (15 replicates). We then studied her interactions with an established egg-layer from the same colony after different durations, ranging from 20 h to several days. Even though her eggs are only ready to be laid after 30 days, the new alpha was recognised within 1 2 days. Detection occurred at a distance of a few millimetres, suggesting the involvement of a pheromone with low volatility, such as cuticular hydrocarbons. When the new alpha had differentiated for >48 h, she was attacked by the established egg-layer. In all cases, low-ranking workers eventually immobilised one of the two alphas: the new alpha was the target if she had differentiated only recently, suggesting that police workers select the dominant worker with the “less fertile” odour. Using the behaviour of ants as our measure, we demonstrate that a dominant’s olfactory signal changes rapidly with a modification in her social status, and it occurs well before the onset of egg-laying.

  13. Qualification Testing Versus Quantitative Reliability Testing of PV - Gaining Confidence in a Rapidly Changing Technology: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Repins, Ingrid L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hacke, Peter L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jordan, Dirk [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kempe, Michael D [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Whitfield, Kent [Underwriters Laboratories; Phillips, Nancy [DuPont; Sample, Tony [European Commission; Monokroussos, Christos [TUV Rheinland; Hsi, Edward [Swiss RE; Wohlgemuth, John [PowerMark Corporation; Seidel, Peter [First Solar; Jahn, Ulrike [TUV Rheinland; Tanahashi, Tadanori [National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology; Chen, Yingnan [China General Certification Center; Jaeckel, Bengt [Underwriters Laboratories; Yamamichi, Masaaki [RTS Corporation

    2017-10-05

    Continued growth of PV system deployment would be enhanced by quantitative, low-uncertainty predictions of the degradation and failure rates of PV modules and systems. The intended product lifetime (decades) far exceeds the product development cycle (months), limiting our ability to reduce the uncertainty of the predictions for this rapidly changing technology. Yet, business decisions (setting insurance rates, analyzing return on investment, etc.) require quantitative risk assessment. Moving toward more quantitative assessments requires consideration of many factors, including the intended application, consequence of a possible failure, variability in the manufacturing, installation, and operation, as well as uncertainty in the measured acceleration factors, which provide the basis for predictions based on accelerated tests. As the industry matures, it is useful to periodically assess the overall strategy for standards development and prioritization of research to provide a technical basis both for the standards and the analysis related to the application of those. To this end, this paper suggests a tiered approach to creating risk assessments. Recent and planned potential improvements in international standards are also summarized.

  14. Modeling cavitation in a rapidly changing pressure field - application to a small ultrasonic horn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Žnidarčič, Anton; Mettin, Robert; Dular, Matevž

    2015-01-01

    Ultrasonic horn transducers are frequently used in applications of acoustic cavitation in liquids. It has been observed that if the horn tip is sufficiently small and driven at high amplitude, cavitation is very strong, and the tip can be covered entirely by the gas/vapor phase for longer time intervals. A peculiar dynamics of the attached cavity can emerge with expansion and collapse at a self-generated frequency in the subharmonic range, i.e. below the acoustic driving frequency. The term "acoustic supercavitation" was proposed for this type of cavitation Žnidarčič et al. (2014) [1]. We tested several established hydrodynamic cavitation models on this problem, but none of them was able to correctly predict the flow features. As a specific characteristic of such acoustic cavitation problems lies in the rapidly changing driving pressures, we present an improved approach to cavitation modeling, which does not neglect the second derivatives in the Rayleigh-Plesset equation. Comparison with measurements of acoustic supercavitation at an ultrasonic horn of 20kHz frequency revealed a good agreement in terms of cavity dynamics, cavity volume and emitted pressure pulsations. The newly developed cavitation model is particularly suited for simulation of cavitating flow in highly fluctuating driving pressure fields. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Changes in soft tissue nasal widths associated with rapid maxillary expansion in prepubertal and postpubertal subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Bret M; McNamara, James A; Bandeen, Roger L; Baccetti, Tiziano

    2010-11-01

    To evaluate changes in the soft tissue width of the nose induced by rapid maxillary expansion (RME). Data on greater alar cartilage (GAC) and alar base (AB) widths were compared with a normative sample within the same age range. This prospective study consisted of an RME sample of 79 patients treated with an RME protocol. Mean age at the start of RME treatment was 13.5 years; average duration of treatment was 6.7 months. Patients were grouped into prepubertal and postpubertal groups based on their cervical vertebral maturation (CVM) stage. AB and GAC widths were determined at three separate time points. The normative sample consisted of 437 orthodontically untreated whites, aged 10-16 years. A repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to determine group differences. In addition, independent sample t-tests were used to compare posttreatment nasal width values vs the untreated normative sample. Increases in AB and GAC widths of the nose in the RME sample were less than 1.5 mm. No significant differences were noted in width changes between the prepubertal and postpubertal subgroups. Comparisons of T3 values showed that on average nasal width increases were greater in the RME group than in untreated norms by 1.7 mm for the GAC measure (statistically significant), and by less than 1 mm for the AB measure. RME has no significant clinical effects on the widths of the apical base and the greater alar cartilage of the nose; no differences were observed between the two maturational subgroups.

  16. Health inequalities during 20 years of rapid economic development in China (1980-2000): a mortality analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, XiaoYing; Song, XinMing; Chen, Gong; You, YunZhong; Ren, Qiang; Liu, JuFen; Zhang, Lei; Tan, LingFang; Wei, JiHong; Chen, QiuYuan

    2011-08-01

    To examine the influence of China's economic reforms on population health and regional mortality rates. Longitudinal study measuring the mortality trends and their regional variations. Using data from the three most recent national censuses, we used the model life table to adjust the mortality levels within the population for each census, and to calculate life expectancy. We then examined the variation in patterns of mortality and population health by economic status, region and gender from 1980-2000. Life expectancy varied with economic status, province, and gender. Results showed that, although life expectancy in China had increased overall since the early 1980s, regional differences became more pronounced. Life expectancy for populations who live in the eastern coastal provinces are greater than those in the western regions. Differences in life expectancy are primarily related to differences in regional economic development, which in turn exacerbate regional health inequalities. Therefore, it is necessary to improve economic development in less developed regions and to improve health policies and the public health system that address the needs of everyone. Copyright © 2011 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Rapid evolutionary change of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L plastome, and the genomic diversification of legume chloroplasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dávila Guillermo

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Fabaceae (legumes is one of the largest families of flowering plants, and some members are important crops. In contrast to what we know about their great diversity or economic importance, our knowledge at the genomic level of chloroplast genomes (cpDNAs or plastomes for these crops is limited. Results We sequenced the complete genome of the common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris cv. Negro Jamapa chloroplast. The plastome of P. vulgaris is a 150,285 bp circular molecule. It has gene content similar to that of other legume plastomes, but contains two pseudogenes, rpl33 and rps16. A distinct inversion occurred at the junction points of trnH-GUG/rpl14 and rps19/rps8, as in adzuki bean 1. These two pseudogenes and the inversion were confirmed in 10 varieties representing the two domestication centers of the bean. Genomic comparative analysis indicated that inversions generally occur in legume plastomes and the magnitude and localization of insertions/deletions (indels also vary. The analysis of repeat sequences demonstrated that patterns and sequences of tandem repeats had an important impact on sequence diversification between legume plastomes and tandem repeats did not belong to dispersed repeats. Interestingly, P. vulgaris plastome had higher evolutionary rates of change on both genomic and gene levels than G. max, which could be the consequence of pressure from both mutation and natural selection. Conclusion Legume chloroplast genomes are widely diversified in gene content, gene order, indel structure, abundance and localization of repetitive sequences, intracellular sequence exchange and evolutionary rates. The P. vulgaris plastome is a rapidly evolving genome.

  18. Economists, value judgments, and climate change. A view from feminist economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, Julie A.

    2008-01-01

    A number of recent discussions about ethical issues in climate change, as engaged in by economists, have focused on the value of the parameter representing the rate of time preference within models of optimal growth. This essay examines many economists' antipathy to serious discussion of ethical matters, and suggests that the avoidance of questions of intergenerational equity is related to another set of value judgments concerning the quality and objectivity of economic practice. Using insights from feminist philosophy of science and research on high reliability organizations, this essay argues that a more ethically transparent, real-world-oriented, and flexible economic practice would lead to more reliable and useful knowledge. (author)

  19. The economics of energy policy in China. Implications for global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhongxiang Zhang

    1998-01-01

    This book is the first systematic and comprehensive attempt to deal with the economic implications of carbon abatement for the Chinese economy in the light of the economics of climate change. The book provides 1) an analysis of the Chinese energy system in order to shed light on its implications for China's future CO 2 emissions; 2) a macroeconomic analysis of CO 2 emission limits for China, using a newly-developed computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy; and 3) a cost-effective analysis of carbon abatement options in China's electricity sector by means of a technology-oriented dynamic optimization model. (UK)

  20. Breaking out of the economic box: energy efficiency, social rationality and non-economic drivers of behavioral change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ehrhardt-Martinez, Karen; Laitner, John A. ' Skip' (ACEEE, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, Washington, D.C. (United States))

    2009-07-01

    Energy concerns are increasingly on people's minds. According to a recent Gallup poll, nearly 30 percent of American's reported that energy prices were the most important financial problem facing their families today. But are these new concerns likely to translate into long-term behavioral changes and more energy-efficient behavior? Research suggests that it will take more than high prices to achieve maximum energy savings. People may like to think of themselves as rational economic actors, but a variety of studies by social-psychologists and behavioral economists reveal that people often act in ways that may be better described as 'socially-rational' and 'predictably irrational'. Despite these findings, many residential energy programs and most policy assessments continue to model potential energy savings as a function of existing technologies and the cost of those energy resources. This paper explores the ways in which individual behavior is shaped by the social context within which people operate and presents an alternative framework for modeling efficiency behavior. The alternative model recognizes that while individuals may not always behave in economically-rational ways, their behavior may be entirely rational from other vantage points. In fact, individuals often behave as rational social actors, determining what is and isn't 'appropriate' behavior by gleaning information from their own observations, from their peers, and from interactions within their sphere of social influence. As such, this paper explores the ways in which social rules, resources and context shape individual patterns of energy consumption. This alternative approach has important implications for program designs and policy recommendations.

  1. Unemployment and health selection in diverging economic conditions: Compositional changes? Evidence from 28 European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heggebø, Kristian; Dahl, Espen

    2015-11-04

    Unemployment and health selection in diverging economic conditions: Compositional changes? Evidence from 28 european countries. People with ill health tend to be overrepresented among the unemployment population. The relationship between health and unemployment might, however, be sensitive to the overall economic condition. Specifically, the health composition of the unemployment population could change dramatically when the economy takes a turn for the worse. Using EU-SILC cross sectional data from 2007 (pre-crisis) and 2011 (during crisis) and linear regression models, this paper investigates the relationship between health and unemployment probabilities under differing economic conditions in 28 European countries. The countries are classified according to (i) the level of and (ii) increase in unemployment rate (i.e. >10 percent and doubling of unemployment rate = crisis country). Firstly, the unemployment likelihood for people with ill health is remarkably stable over time in Europe: the coefficients are very similar in pre-crisis and crisis years. Secondly, people with ill health have experienced unemployment to a lesser extent than those with good health status in the crisis year (when we pool the data and compare 2007 and 2011), but only in the countries with a high and rising unemployment rate. The health composition of the unemployment population changes significantly for the better, but only in those European countries that have been severely hit by the current economic crisis.

  2. Economic consequences of epidemiological changes in diabetes in middle-income countries: the Mexican case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arredondo, Armando; Zúñiga, Alexis

    2004-01-01

    To identify the costs and economic consequences of expected changes in the demand for health care services for type 2 diabetes in the three main public institutions of the Mexican health care system. The cost evaluation method to estimate direct and indirect costs was based on instrumentation and consensus techniques. To estimate the costs and epidemiological changes for 2003-2005, three probabilistic models were constructed according to the Box-Jenkins technique. Comparing the economic impact in 2003 versus 2005 (P Social Security Institute, or Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS), and the Institute for Social Security and Services for State Workers, or Instituto de Seguridad y Servicios Sociales de los Trabajadores del Estado (ISSSTE), both of which serve the insured population. Our data suggest that changes in the demand for health care services for patients with diabetes will continue with an increasing trend, mainly in the insured population. In economic terms, the results of direct and indirect costs are one of the main challenges to be solved to decrease the economic burden that diabetes represents for the population, the health care institutions, and for society as a whole.

  3. Consistent economic cross-sectoral climate change impact scenario analysis: Method and application to Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl W. Steininger

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change triggers manifold impacts at the national to local level, which in turn have various economy-wide implications (e.g. on welfare, employment, or tax revenues. In its response, society needs to prioritize which of these impacts to address and what share of resources to spend on each respective adaptation. A prerequisite to achieving that end is an economic impact analysis that is consistent across sectors and acknowledges intersectoral and economy-wide feedback effects. Traditional Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs are usually operating at a level too aggregated for this end, while bottom-up impact models most often are not fully comprehensive, focusing on only a subset of climate sensitive sectors and/or a subset of climate change impact chains. Thus, we develop here an approach which applies climate and socioeconomic scenario analysis, harmonized economic costing, and sector explicit bandwidth analysis in a coupled framework of eleven (biophysical impact assessment models and a uniform multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model. In applying this approach to the alpine country of Austria, we find that macroeconomic feedbacks can magnify sectoral climate damages up to fourfold, or that by mid-century costs of climate change clearly outweigh benefits, with net costs rising two- to fourfold above current damage cost levels. The resulting specific impact information – differentiated by climate and economic drivers – can support sector-specific adaptation as well as adaptive capacity building. Keywords: climate impact, local impact, economic evaluation, adaptation

  4. Trade-offs Between Socio-economic Development and Ecosystem Health under Changing Water Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazemi, A.; Hassanzadeh, E.; Elshorbagy, A. A.; Wheater, H. S.; Gober, P.; Jardine, T.; Lindenschmidt, K. E.

    2017-12-01

    Natural and human water systems at regional scales are often developed around key characteristics of streamflow. As a result, changes in streamflow regime can affect both socio-economic activities and freshwater ecosystems. In addition to natural variability and/or climate change, extensive water resource management to support socio-economic growth has also changed streamflow regimes. This study aims at understanding the trade-offs between agricultural expansion in the province of Saskatchewan, Canada, and alterations in the ecohydrological characteristics of the Saskatchewan River Delta (SRD) located downstream. Changes in climate along with extensive water resource management have altered the upstream flow regime. Moreover, Saskatchewan is investigating the possible expansion of irrigated agriculture to boost the provincial economy. To evaluate trade-offs across a range of possible scenarios for streamflow changes, the potential increase in provincial net benefit versus potential vulnerability of the SRD was assessed using perturbed flow realizations along with scenarios of irrigation expansion as input to an integrated water resource system model. This study sheds light on the potential variability in trade-offs between economic benefits and ecosystem health under a range of streamflow conditions, with the aim of informing decisions that can benefit both natural and human water systems.

  5. Optimal climate change: economics and climate science policy histories (from heuristic to normative).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randalls, Samuel

    2011-01-01

    Historical accounts of climate change science and policy have reflected rather infrequently upon the debates, discussions, and policy advice proffered by economists in the 1980s. While there are many forms of economic analysis, this article focuses upon cost-benefit analysis, especially as adopted in the work of William Nordhaus. The article addresses the way in which climate change economics subtly altered debates about climate policy from the late 1970s through the 1990s. These debates are often technical and complex, but the argument in this article is that the development of a philosophy of climate change as an issue for cost-benefit analysis has had consequences for how climate policy is made today.

  6. Modeling future flows of the Volta River system: Impacts of climate change and socio-economic changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Li; Whitehead, Paul G; Appeaning Addo, Kwasi; Amisigo, Barnabas; Macadam, Ian; Janes, Tamara; Crossman, Jill; Nicholls, Robert J; McCartney, Matthew; Rodda, Harvey J E

    2018-05-14

    As the scientific consensus concerning global climate change has increased in recent decades, research on potential impacts of climate change on water resources has been given high importance. However in Sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have fully evaluated the potential implications of climate change to their water resource systems. The Volta River is one of the major rivers in Africa covering six riparian countries (mainly Ghana and Burkina Faso). It is a principal water source for approximately 24 million people in the region. The catchment is primarily agricultural providing food supplies to rural areas, demonstrating the classic water, food, energy nexus. In this study an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) was applied to the whole Volta River system to simulate flow in the rivers and at the outlet of the artificial Lake Volta. High-resolution climate scenarios downscaled from three different Global Climate Models (CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES and CanESM2), have been used to drive the INCA model and to assess changes in flow by 2050s and 2090s under the high climate forcing scenario RCP8.5. Results show that peak flows during the monsoon months could increase into the future. The duration of high flow could become longer compared to the recent condition. In addition, we considered three different socio-economic scenarios. As an example, under the combined impact from climate change from downscaling CNRM-CM5 and medium+ (high economic growth) socio-economic changes, the extreme high flows (Q5) of the Black Volta River are projected to increase 11% and 36% at 2050s and 2090s, respectively. Lake Volta outflow would increase +1% and +5% at 2050s and 2090s, respectively, under the same scenario. The effects of changing socio-economic conditions on flow are minor compared to the climate change impact. These results will provide valuable information assisting future water resource development and adaptive strategies in the Volta Basin. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights

  7. Climate change : expert opinion on the economics of policy options to address climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-05-01

    Panelists identified key strengths and limitations of alternative policy approaches that should be of assistance to the Congress in weighing the potential benefits and costs of different policies for addressing climate change. Many panelists said tha...

  8. Alcohol taxation, economic recession, and mortality changes in five European countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreeva, Tatiana

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Since 2008 some mortality decline is observed in several European countries including Latvia, Lithuania, and Ukraine. We hypothesized that this decline could be caused by decreased alcohol use facilitated by both economic recession and alcohol taxation. This study aimed to check this hypothesis.METHODS: Besides the abovementioned countries which suffered from the economic recession and have increased alcohol excise taxes, we considered data from the WHO-Euro mortality database for Poland which did not suffer from GDP decline and Ireland which decreased alcohol excise in 2009. Both per capita GDP growth change (from -18% in Latvia to +2% in Poland and alcohol excise change (from -20% in Ireland to +60% in Ukraine compared to 2008 rates were considered as independent variables. The outcome was percentage of real mortality decline compared to 2009 extrapolation of 2000-2008 trends, which were built using linear regression separately for major groups of death causes earlier shown to have changed in 2009. Population groups aged 30-59 were considered as those whose mortality declined most.RESULTS: Ten percent increase in alcohol excise taxes was associated with 9.4% decline in respiratory mortality from expected rate, 5.7% decline in causes of death related to nervous system, 4.9% decline in external causes of death, 4.8% decline in circulatory system deaths, 3.5% decline in infectious diseases as causes of death. Cardiovascular mortality decline was marginally associated with measurements of economic crisis (0.7% decline per 1% GDP fall.DISCUSSION: During the economic recession, the portion of all-causes mortality that has declined is most likely alcohol-related. Death causes that have mostly declined during the recession are more strongly associated with alcohol taxation than with GDP fall. Cardiovascular deaths decline related to the economic crisis could have been related to diet changes including smaller proportion of fatty and

  9. Longitudinal changes in functional capacity: effects of socio-economic position among ageing adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sulander Tommi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Health and functional capacity have improved especially in Western countries over the past few decades. Nevertheless, the positive secular trend has not been able to decrease an uneven distribution of health. The main aim of this study was to follow-up changes in functional capacity among the same people in six years time and to detect whether the possible changes vary according to socio-economic position (SEP. In addition, it is of interest whether health behaviours have an effect on these possible changes. Methods This longitudinal follow-up study consisted of 1,898 individuals from three birth cohorts (1926–1930, 1936–40, 1946–50 who took part in clinical check-ups and answered to a survey questionnaire in 2002 and 2008. A sub-scale of physical functioning from the RAND-36 was used to measure functional capacity. Education and adequacy of income were used as indicators of socio-economic position. Repeated-measures ANOVA was used as a main method of analysis. Results Physical functioning in 2002 and 2008 was poorest among those men and women belonging to the oldest cohort. Functional capacity deteriorated in six years among men in the oldest cohort and among women in all three cohorts. Socio-economic disparities in functional capacity among ageing people existed. Especially lower adequacy of income was most consistently associated with poorer functional capacity. However, changes in functional capacity by socio-economic position remained the same or even narrowed independent of health behaviours. Conclusion Socio-economic disparities in physical functioning are mainly incorporated in the level of functioning at the baseline. No widening socioeconomic disparities in functional capacity exist. Partly these disparities even seem to narrow with ageing.

  10. Combined Impacts of Medium Term Socio-Economic Changes and Climate Change on Water Resources in a Managed Mediterranean Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastassi Stefanova

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate projections agree on a dryer and warmer future for the Mediterranean. Consequently, the region is likely to face serious problems regarding water availability and quality in the future. We investigated potential climate change impacts, alone (for three scenario periods and in combination with four socio-economic scenarios (for the near future on water resources in a Mediterranean catchment, whose economy relies on irrigated agriculture and tourism. For that, the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM was applied to the drainage area of the Mar Menor coastal lagoon, using a set of 15 climate scenarios and different land use maps and management settings. We assessed the long-term average seasonal and annual changes in generated runoff, groundwater recharge and actual evapotranspiration in the catchment, as well as on water inflow and nutrients input to the lagoon. The projected average annual changes in precipitation are small for the first scenario period, and so are the simulated impacts on all investigated components, on average. The negative trend of potential climate change impacts on water resources (i.e., decrease in all analyzed components becomes pronounced in the second and third scenario periods. The applied socio-economic scenarios intensify, reduce or even reverse the climate-induced impacts, depending on the assumed land use and management changes.

  11. Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Harrison, Paula A

    2018-05-01

    Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural

  12. The Future of Coral Reefs Subject to Rapid Climate Change: Lessons from Natural Extreme Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma F. Camp

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change and localized anthropogenic stressors are driving rapid declines in coral reef health. In vitro experiments have been fundamental in providing insight into how reef organisms will potentially respond to future climates. However, such experiments are inevitably limited in their ability to reproduce the complex interactions that govern reef systems. Studies examining coral communities that already persist under naturally-occurring extreme and marginal physicochemical conditions have therefore become increasingly popular to advance ecosystem scale predictions of future reef form and function, although no single site provides a perfect analog to future reefs. Here we review the current state of knowledge that exists on the distribution of corals in marginal and extreme environments, and geographic sites at the latitudinal extremes of reef growth, as well as a variety of shallow reef systems and reef-neighboring environments (including upwelling and CO2 vent sites. We also conduct a synthesis of the abiotic data that have been collected at these systems, to provide the first collective assessment on the range of extreme conditions under which corals currently persist. We use the review and data synthesis to increase our understanding of the biological and ecological mechanisms that facilitate survival and success under sub-optimal physicochemical conditions. This comprehensive assessment can begin to: (i highlight the extent of extreme abiotic scenarios under which corals can persist, (ii explore whether there are commonalities in coral taxa able to persist in such extremes, (iii provide evidence for key mechanisms required to support survival and/or persistence under sub-optimal environmental conditions, and (iv evaluate the potential of current sub-optimal coral environments to act as potential refugia under changing environmental conditions. Such a collective approach is critical to better understand the future survival of

  13. Lake ecosystem response to rapid lateglacial climate changes in lake sediments from northern Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Słowiński, Michał; Zawiska, Izabela; Ott, Florian; Noryśkiewicz, Agnieszka M.; Apolinarska, Karina; Lutyńska, Monika; Michczyńska, Danuta J.; Brauer, Achim; Wulf, Sabine; Skubała, Piotr; Błaszkiewicz, Mirosław

    2013-04-01

    During the Late Glacial Period environment changes were triggered by climatic oscillations which in turn controlled processes like, for example, permafrost thawing, vegetation development and ground water circulation. These environmental changes are ideally recorded in lake sediments and thus can be reconstructed applying a multi-poxy approach. Here, we present the results from the Trzechowskie paleolake, located in the northern Polish lowlands (eastern part of the Pomeranian Lakeland). The site is situated on the outwash plain of the Wda River, which was formed during the Pomeranian phase of the Vistulian glaciation ca 16,000 14C yrs BP. The depression of the Trzechowskie lake basin formed after melting of a buried ice block during the Allerød (13903±170 cal yrs BP). We reconstructed environmental changes in the Trzechowskie paleolake and its catchment using biotic proxies (macrofossils, pollen, cladocera, diatoms, oribatidae mite) and geochemical proxies (δ18O, δ13C, loss-on-ignition (LOI), CaCO3 content). In addition, we carried out µ-XRF element core scanning. The chronology has been established by means of biostratigraphyAMS14C dating on plant macro remains, varve counting in laminated intervals and the late Allerød Laacher See Tephra isochrone. Our results showed that biogenic accumulation in the lake started during the Bølling. Development of coniferous forest during the Allerød with dominance of Pinus sylvestris lead to leaching of carbonates in the catchment due to low pH increasing the flux of Ca ions into the lake. In consequence calcite precipitating in the lake increased as evidences by increasing CaCO3 contents. Both biotic and physical proxies clearly reflect the rapid decrease in productivity at the onset of the Younger Dryas. We compare the data from the Trzechowskie paleolake with the Meerfelder Maar and Rehwiese lake records based on tephrochronological synchronization using the Laacher See Tephra. This study is a contribution to the

  14. Changing Economic Leadership : A New Benchmark of Sector Productivity in the United States and Western Europe, ca. 1910

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frankema, Ewout; Woltjer, Pieter; Smits, Jan-Pieter

    2013-01-01

    The debate concerning the exact timing and causes of changes in economic leadership constitutes one of the central themes in economic history. This study aims to improve the measurement of economic performance in the United States and Western Europe (Britain, France and the Netherlands) during the

  15. Changing Economic Leadership. A New Benchmark of Sector Productivity in the United States and Western Europe, ca. 1910

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frankema, E.H.P.; Woltjer, P.J.; Smits, J.P.

    2013-01-01

    The debate concerning the exact timing and causes of changes in economic leadership constitutes one of the central themes in economic history. This study aims to improve the measurement of economic performance in the United States and Western Europe (Britain, France and the Netherlands) during

  16. The effect of economic change and elite framing on support for welfare state retrenchment: a survey experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marx, P.; Schumacher, G.

    2016-01-01

    How do economic downturns affect citizens’ support for welfare state retrenchment? Existing observational studies fail to isolate the effect of economic conditions and the effect of elite framing of these conditions. We therefore designed a survey experiment to evaluate how economic change in

  17. Integrated impact assessment of climate and socio-economic change on dairy farms in a watershed in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paas, Wim; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Ven, van de Gerrie; Reidsma, Pytrik

    2016-01-01

    Climate and socio-economic change will affect the land use and the economic viability of Dutch dairy farms. Explorations of future scenarios, which include different drivers and impacts, are needed to perform ex-ante policy assessment. This study uses a bio-economic farm model to assess impacts

  18. [Ecological risk assessment of human activity of rapid economic development regions in southern Jiangsu, China: a case study of Dantu District of Zhenjiang City].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Guang-Ling; Xiang, Bao; Wang, Bao-Liang; Jin, Xia; Hu, Yu; Zhang, Li-Kun

    2014-04-01

    This article investigated the spatiotemporal variation of landscape ecological risk in Dantu District of Zhenjiang City with statistical method based on the ETM remote sensing data in 2000 and 2005, and the TM remote sensing data in 2010, and quantitative index of regional ecological risk assessment was established with the employment of landscape index, so as to enhance the ecosystem management, prevent and reduce the regional ecological risk in southern Jiangsu with rapid economic development. The results showed that the fragmentations, divergence, and ecological losses of natural landscape types, such as forestland, wetland, waters, etc., were deteriorated with the expansion of built-up lands from 2000 to 2010. The higher ecological risk zone took up 5.7%, 9.0%, and 10.2% of the whole region in 2000, 2005, and 2010, respectively, which mainly distributed in the plain hilly region. During the study period, the area aggravating to the higher ecological risk zone was approximately 296.2 km2, 48% of the whole region. The ecological risk rose up in most of the region. The interference of rapid economic development to landscape patterns was even more intensive, with obvious spatial differences in ecological risk distribution. The measures of exploiting resources near the port, utilizing natural wetlands, constructing industrial parks, and rapid urbanization, etc., intensified the ecological risk and accelerated the conversion rate. Prompt strategies should be established to manage the ecological risk of this region.

  19. Rapid change of ion energy distribution and floating potential at L/H transition in the JFT-2M tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miura, Y.; Nagashima, K.; Okano, F.

    1994-01-01

    Rapid changes of the main ion energy distribution at transitions from L-to-H, H-to-L and during ELMs are studied with the time of flight neutral measurement in the JFT-2M tokamak. The change of the main ion energy distribution after sawtooth crash during an L-mode phase is also studied. The change of the ion energy distribution just after sawtooth crash is the same as that at L/H-transition. The floating potential measured in the SOL also shows the rapid jump to more positive just after the sawtooth crash (at the same time of the change of an ion energy distribution). This shows the increase of ion outflux in the SOL and might correspond to the change of the ion energy distribution. This may be the reason why most of H-modes are triggered by a sawtooth. (author)

  20. Eco-innovation Dynamics and Green Economic Change: the role of sectoral-specific patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Maj Munch; Faria, Lourenco

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the features of Green Economic Change process at the meso-level, the greening of industries. We posit that, as for “traditional” innovations, it is possible to identify sectoral eco-innovation patterns and that these represent key but neglected factors in the dynamics...... of green economic evolution. . The paper represents early speculative conceptual work. We have posited that, as for “general” innovations, it is possible to identify sectoral eco-innovation patterns and that these represent key but neglected factors in the dynamics of green economic chance. The paper...... identifies seven specific characteristics of eco-innovation which form the basis for identifying 4 core hypothesis which may explain sectoral heterogeneity and identify likely sectoral eco-innovation leaders....

  1. Economic Impacts of Future Changes in the Energy System - Global Perspectives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Glynn, James; Fortes, Patrícia; Krook-Riekkola, Anna

    2015-01-01

    climate change. This chapter summarises modelling methodologies developed in the ETSAP community to assess economic impacts of decarbonising energy systems at a global level. The next chapter of this book focuses on a national perspective. The range of economic impacts is regionally dependent upon...... the stage of economic development, the level of industrialisation, energy intensity of exports, and competition effects due to rates of relative decarbonisation. Developed nation’s decarbonisation targets are estimated to result in a manageable GDP loss in the region of 2 % by 2050. Energy intensive export...... driven developing countries such as China and India, and fossil fuel exporting nations can expect significantly higher GDP loss of up to 5 % GDP per year by mid-century....

  2. The Economics of Climate Change in Kenya: Final Report submitted in advance of COP15

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Downing, Tom; Watkiss, Paul; Dyszynski, Jillian; Butterfield, Ruth; Devisscher, Tahia; Pye, Steve; Droogers, Peter; Ali, Basra; Harding, Brian; Tas, Adriaan; Blois, Mark de; Tadege, Abebe; Hunt, Alistair; Taylor, Tim; Bouma, Menno; Kovats, Sari; Maitima, Joseph; Mugatha, Simon; Kariuki, Patrick; Mariene, Lea; Worden, Jeff; Western, David; Waruingi, Lucy; Brown, Sally; Kebede, Abiy; Nicholls, Robert; Lager, Bo; Otiende, Brian; Chambwera, Muyeye; Birch, Tom; Mutimba, Stephen; Sang, Joan

    2009-12-15

    Existing climate variability has significant economic costs in Kenya. Periodic floods and droughts (extremes) cause major macro-economic costs and reductions in economic growth. Future climate change will lead to additional and potentially very large economic costs. These are uncertain. However, aggregate models indicate additional net economic costs (on top of existing climate variability) could be equivalent to a loss of almost 3% of GDP each year by 2030 in Kenya. Costs include potential threats to coastal zones (sea-level rise), health burdens, energy demand, infrastructure, water resources, agriculture and loss of ecosystem services. The study has addressed the potential impacts and economic costs in these sectors. These highlight the importance of preparing for future climate change. While it is difficult to predict effects with confidence, there is a need to plan robust strategies to prepare for the future, rather than using uncertainty as a reason for inaction. Adaptation can reduce the economic costs of climate change but it has a cost. The costs of adaptation are still emerging. A number of categories of adaptation have been identified that relate to the balance between development and climate change. An initial estimate of immediate needs for addressing current climate as well as preparing for future climate change for Kenya is USD 500 million/year (for 2012). The cost of adaptation by 2030 will increase: an upper estimate of the cost is likely to be in the range of USD 1 to 2 billion/year. The study has also prioritised early adaptation across the sectors. These studies demonstrate that adaptation has potentially very large benefits in reducing present and future damages. However, while adaptation reduces damages, it does not remove them entirely. Residual impacts in Kenya, particularly for some regions and groups are expected and need to be managed. The analysis has considered future emissions for Kenya, consistent with planned development. Emissions

  3. The Economics of Climate Change in Kenya: Final Report submitted in advance of COP15

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Downing, Tom; Watkiss, Paul; Dyszynski, Jillian; Butterfield, Ruth; Devisscher, Tahia; Pye, Steve; Droogers, Peter; Ali, Basra; Harding, Brian; Tas, Adriaan; Blois, Mark de; Tadege, Abebe; Hunt, Alistair; Taylor, Tim; Bouma, Menno; Kovats, Sari; Maitima, Joseph; Mugatha, Simon; Kariuki, Patrick; Mariene, Lea; Worden, Jeff; Western, David; Waruingi, Lucy; Brown, Sally; Kebede, Abiy; Nicholls, Robert; Lager, Bo; Otiende, Brian; Chambwera, Muyeye; Birch, Tom; Mutimba, Stephen; Sang, Joan

    2009-12-15

    Existing climate variability has significant economic costs in Kenya. Periodic floods and droughts (extremes) cause major macro-economic costs and reductions in economic growth. Future climate change will lead to additional and potentially very large economic costs. These are uncertain. However, aggregate models indicate additional net economic costs (on top of existing climate variability) could be equivalent to a loss of almost 3% of GDP each year by 2030 in Kenya. Costs include potential threats to coastal zones (sea-level rise), health burdens, energy demand, infrastructure, water resources, agriculture and loss of ecosystem services. The study has addressed the potential impacts and economic costs in these sectors. These highlight the importance of preparing for future climate change. While it is difficult to predict effects with confidence, there is a need to plan robust strategies to prepare for the future, rather than using uncertainty as a reason for inaction. Adaptation can reduce the economic costs of climate change but it has a cost. The costs of adaptation are still emerging. A number of categories of adaptation have been identified that relate to the balance between development and climate change. An initial estimate of immediate needs for addressing current climate as well as preparing for future climate change for Kenya is USD 500 million/year (for 2012). The cost of adaptation by 2030 will increase: an upper estimate of the cost is likely to be in the range of USD 1 to 2 billion/year. The study has also prioritised early adaptation across the sectors. These studies demonstrate that adaptation has potentially very large benefits in reducing present and future damages. However, while adaptation reduces damages, it does not remove them entirely. Residual impacts in Kenya, particularly for some regions and groups are expected and need to be managed. The analysis has considered future emissions for Kenya, consistent with planned development. Emissions

  4. Change in economic difficulties and physical and mental functioning: Evidence from British and Finnish employee cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lallukka, Tea; Ferrie, Jane E; Rahkonen, Ossi; Shipley, Martin J; Pietiläinen, Olli; Kivimäki, Mika; Marmot, Michael G; Lahelma, Eero

    2013-09-01

    The main aims of this longitudinal study were to (i) examine associations between changes in economic difficulties and health functioning among middle-aged employees and (ii) assess whether the associations remained after considering conventional domains of socioeconomic position. The associations were tested in two European welfare state occupational cohorts to strengthen the evidence base and improve generalizability. Data came from two cohorts: the Finnish Helsinki Health Study (baseline 2000-2002, follow-up 2007, N = 6328) and the British Whitehall II Study (baseline 1997-1999, follow-up 2003-2004, N = 4350). Responses to the survey item "finding it hard to afford adequate food and clothes and pay bills" repeated at baseline and follow-up were used to examine persistent, increasing, and decreasing economic difficulties. Poor physical and mental health functioning were denoted as being in the lowest quartile of the Short Form 36 physical and mental component summary. Logistic regression analyses were adjusted for sex, age, childhood economic difficulties, household income at baseline and follow-up, employment status at follow-up, and baseline health functioning. We observed strong sex- and age-adjusted associations between increasing [odds ratio (OR) range 1.69-2.96] and persistent (OR range 2.54-3.21) economic difficulties and poorer physical and mental health functioning in both British and Finnish occupational cohorts. These associations remained after full adjustments. Those reporting decreasing difficulties over follow-up also had poorer functioning (OR range 1.30-1.61) compared to those who did not have difficulties at baseline, possibly reflecting residual effects of economic difficulties at baseline. Changes in economic difficulties are associated with poorer physical and mental health functioning independent of income, employment status, and baseline health functioning.

  5. Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Tuna Fisheries in Fiji Islands and Kiribati

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aaheim, Asbjoern; Sygna, Linda

    2000-06-01

    This paper discusses the possible economic consequences of a change in the tuna fisheries in the Pacific Ocean resulting from climate change. On the background of Lehodey's (2000) study of potential changes in the tuna fisheries, we survey possible economic impacts in terms of quantities and values and give examples of macroeconomic impacts. The two main effects of climate change on tuna fishing are likely to be a decline in the total stock and a migration of the stock westwards. This will lead to various changes in the catch in different countries. The price of the fish in the export market may also change as a result. The Pacific islands are generally dependent on fisheries, and may therefore be vulnerable to these changes, although some will probably gain while others will lose. Based on a very simple macroeconomic model, it is shown that the resulting effects for the national economy in general may diverge substantially from the expected. This applies, in particular, if the national economies are inflexible and a large part of the population relies on subsistence production, which is the case for many developing countries. (author)

  6. Extremely rapid directional change during Matuyama-Brunhes geomagnetic polarity reversal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagnotti, Leonardo; Scardia, Giancarlo; Giaccio, Biagio; Liddicoat, Joseph C.; Nomade, Sebastien; Renne, Paul R.; Sprain, Courtney J.

    2014-11-01

    We report a palaeomagnetic investigation of the last full geomagnetic field reversal, the Matuyama-Brunhes (M-B) transition, as preserved in a continuous sequence of exposed lacustrine sediments in the Apennines of Central Italy. The palaeomagnetic record provides the most direct evidence for the tempo of transitional field behaviour yet obtained for the M-B transition. 40Ar/39Ar dating of tephra layers bracketing the M-B transition provides high-accuracy age constraints and indicates a mean sediment accumulation rate of about 0.2 mm yr-1 during the transition. Two relative palaeointensity (RPI) minima are present in the M-B transition. During the terminus of the upper RPI minimum, a directional change of about 180 ° occurred at an extremely fast rate, estimated to be less than 2 ° per year, with no intermediate virtual geomagnetic poles (VGPs) documented during the transit from the southern to northern hemisphere. Thus, the entry into the Brunhes Normal Chron as represented by the palaeomagnetic directions and VGPs developed in a time interval comparable to the duration of an average human life, which is an order of magnitude more rapid than suggested by current models. The reported investigation therefore provides high-resolution integrated palaeomagnetic and radioisotopic data that document the fine details of the anatomy and tempo of the M-B transition in Central Italy that in turn are crucial for a better understanding of Earth's magnetic field, and for the development of more sophisticated models that are able to describe its global structure and behaviour.

  7. Diverse multi-decadal changes in streamflow within a rapidly urbanizing region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diem, Jeremy E.; Hill, T. Chee; Milligan, Richard A.

    2018-01-01

    The impact of urbanization on streamflow depends on a variety of factors (e.g., climate, initial land cover, inter-basin transfers, water withdrawals, wastewater effluent, etc.). The purpose of this study is to examine trends in streamflow from 1986 to 2015 in a range of watersheds within the rapidly urbanizing Atlanta, GA metropolitan area. This study compares eight watersheds over three decades, while minimizing the influence of inter-annual precipitation variability. Population and land-cover data were used to analyze changes over approximately twenty years within the watersheds. Precipitation totals for the watersheds were estimated using precipitation totals at nearby weather stations. Multiple streamflow variables, such as annual streamflow, frequencies of high-flow days (HFDs), flashiness, and precipitation-adjusted streamflow, for the eight streams were calculated using daily streamflow data. Variables were tested for significant trends from 1986 to 2015 and significant differences between 1986-2000 and 2001-2015. Flashiness increased for all streams without municipal water withdrawals, and the four watersheds with the largest increase in developed land had significant increases in flashiness. Significant positive trends in precipitation-adjusted mean annual streamflow and HFDs occurred for the two watersheds (Big Creek and Suwanee Creek) that experienced the largest increases in development, and these were the only watersheds that went from majority forest land in 1986 to majority developed land in 2015. With a disproportionate increase in HFD occurrence during summer, Big Creek and Suwannee Creek also had a reduction in intra-annual variability of HFD occurrence. Watersheds that were already substantially developed at the beginning of the period and did not have wastewater discharge had declining streamflow. The most urbanized watershed (Peachtree Creek) had a significant decrease in streamflow, and a possible cause of the decrease was increasing

  8. Some current dimensions of the behavioral economics of health-related behavior change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bickel, Warren K; Moody, Lara; Higgins, Stephen T

    2016-11-01

    Health-related behaviors such as tobacco, alcohol and other substance use, poor diet and physical inactivity, and risky sexual practices are important targets for research and intervention. Health-related behaviors are especially pertinent targets in the United States, which lags behind most other developed nations on common markers of population health. In this essay we examine the application of behavioral economics, a scientific discipline that represents the intersection of economics and psychology, to the study and promotion of health-related behavior change. More specifically, we review what we consider to be some core dimensions of this discipline when applied to the study health-related behavior change. Behavioral economics (1) provides novel conceptual systems to inform scientific understanding of health behaviors, (2) translates scientific understanding into practical and effective behavior-change interventions, (3) leverages varied aspects of behavior change beyond increases or decreases in frequency, (4) recognizes and exploits trans-disease processes and interventions, and (5) leverages technology in efforts to maximize efficacy, cost effectiveness, and reach. These dimensions are overviewed and their implications for the future of the field discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Motivated recall in the service of the economic system: The case of anthropogenic climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennes, Erin P; Ruisch, Benjamin C; Feygina, Irina; Monteiro, Christopher A; Jost, John T

    2016-06-01

    The contemporary political landscape is characterized by numerous divisive issues. Unlike many other issues, however, much of the disagreement about climate change centers not on how best to take action to address the problem, but on whether the problem exists at all. Psychological studies indicate that, to the extent that sustainability initiatives are seen as threatening to the socioeconomic system, individuals may downplay environmental problems in order to defend and protect the status quo. In the current research, participants were presented with scientific information about climate change and later asked to recall details of what they had learned. Individuals who were experimentally induced (Study 1) or dispositionally inclined (Studies 2 and 3) to justify the economic system misremembered the evidence to be less serious, and this was associated with increased skepticism. However, when high system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in a recovery, they recalled climate change information to be more serious than did those assigned to a control condition. When low system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in recession, they recalled the information to be less serious (Study 3). These findings suggest that because system justification can impact information processing, simply providing the public with scientific evidence may be insufficient to inspire action to mitigate climate change. However, linking environmental information to statements about the strength of the economic system may satiate system justification needs and break the psychological link between proenvironmental initiatives and economic risk. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. The challenges and opportunities of climate change policy under different stages of economic development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liobikienė, Genovaitė; Butkus, Mindaugas

    2018-06-18

    Climate change policy confronts with many challenges and opportunities. Thus the aim of this study was to analyse the impact of gross domestic product (hereinafter GDP), trade, foreign direct investment (hereinafter FDI), energy efficiency (hereinafter EF) and renewable energy (hereinafter RE) consumption on greenhouse gas (hereinafter GHG) emissions in 1990-2013 and reveal the main challenges and opportunities of climate policy for which policy makers should take the most attention under different stages of economic development. The results showed that the economic growth significantly contributed to the increase of GHG emissions and remains the main challenge in all groups of countries. Analysing the trade impact on pollution, the results revealed that the growth of export (hereinafter EX) significantly reduced GHG emissions only in high income countries. However, the export remains a challenge in low income countries. FDI insignificantly determined the changes in GHG emissions in all groups of countries. Meanwhile, energy efficiency and share of renewable energy consumption are the main opportunities of climate change policy because they reduce the GHG emissions in all groups of countries. Thus, technological processes, the increase of energy efficiency and the shift from carbon to renewable energy sources are the main tools implementing the climate change policy in all countries despite the different stage of economic development. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. The effects of innovative changes influence on social and economic processes of the region development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. O. Tolstykh

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Development of strategy of social and economic development of the Voronezh region till 2035 requires the careful analysis of a condition of all activities of the region, their interaction and interference. The special role in this process belongs to the higher school as the engine of knowledge, information and innovations. In case of all conservatism of an education system its task not only to give estimates and forecasts of the future, but also to serve as a leader of changes in all industries. The models realizing these tasks are a possibility of receipt of the effective instrument of increase in innovation of potential of economy of the region, forming of the environment which is adequately reflecting scientific and technical and economic challenges of modern realities and also developments of processes and technologies of transition of economy of the region to the principles of digital economy. Direct task of the higher school are increase in the amount of knowledge which is saved up by society, handling and transformation of information to knowledge, generation of new information and new knowledge, forming of the competitive specialist. In article approaches to an impact assessment of changes in the higher school on processes of social and economic development of the region, to classification of straight lines and side effects (spillover-effects in the conditions of development of programs of a strategic development of the region are considered, the model of development of the higher school taking into account spillover-effect based on the principles of digital economy is offered. For the purpose of an impact assessment of changes in the higher school on processes of social and economic development in the region the task is set to analyse influence of various factors at each other, and also on basic factors of economic growth of the region.

  12. A Multidisciplinary, Science-Based Approach to the Economics of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlin, Alan

    2011-01-01

    Economic analyses of environmental mitigation and other interdisciplinary public policy issues can be much more useful if they critically examine what other disciplines have to say, insist on using the most relevant observational data and the scientific method, and examine lower cost alternatives to the change proposed. These general principles are illustrated by applying them to the case of climate change mitigation, one of the most interdisciplinary of public policy issues. The analysis shows how use of these principles leads to quite different conclusions than those of most previous such economic analyses, as follows: The economic benefits of reducing CO2 emissions may be about two orders of magnitude less than those estimated by most economists because the climate sensitivity factor (CSF) is much lower than assumed by the United Nations because feedback is negative rather than positive and the effects of CO2 emissions reductions on atmospheric CO2 appear to be short rather than long lasting.The costs of CO2 emissions reductions are very much higher than usually estimated because of technological and implementation problems recently identified.Geoengineering such as solar radiation management is a controversial alternative to CO2 emissions reductions that offers opportunities to greatly decrease these large costs, change global temperatures with far greater assurance of success, and eliminate the possibility of low probability, high consequence risks of rising temperatures, but has been largely ignored by economists.CO2 emissions reductions are economically unattractive since the very modest benefits remaining after the corrections for the above effects are quite unlikely to economically justify the much higher costs unless much lower cost geoengineering is used.The risk of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming appears to be so low that it is not currently worth doing anything to try to control it, including geoengineering. PMID:21695026

  13. Economic instruments for population diet and physical activity behaviour change: a systematic scoping review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian Shemilt

    Full Text Available Unhealthy diet and low levels of physical activity are common behavioural factors in the aetiology of many non-communicable diseases. Recent years have witnessed an upsurge of policy and research interest in the use of taxes and other economic instruments to improve population health.To assemble, configure and analyse empirical research studies available to inform the public health case for using economic instruments to promote dietary and physical activity behaviour change.We conducted a systematic scoping review of evidence for the effects of specific interventions to change, or general exposure to variations in, prices or income on dietary and physical activity behaviours and corollary outcomes. Systematic electronic searches and parallel snowball searches retrieved >1 million study records. Text mining technologies were used to prioritise title-abstract records for screening. Eligible studies were selected, classified and analysed in terms of key characteristics and principal findings, using a narrative, configuring synthesis focused on implications for policy and further research.We identified 880 eligible studies, including 192 intervention studies and 768 studies that incorporated evidence for prices or income as correlates or determinants of target outcomes. Current evidence for the effects of economic instruments and exposures on diet and physical activity is limited in quality and equivocal in terms of its policy implications. Direct evidence for the effects of economic instruments is heavily skewed towards impacts on diet, with a relative lack of evidence for impacts on physical activity.The evidence-based case for using economic instruments to promote dietary and physical activity behaviour change may be less compelling than some proponents have claimed. Future research should include measurement of people's actual behavioural responses using study designs capable of generating reliable causal inferences regarding intervention

  14. Does energy efficiency improve technological change and economic growth in developing countries?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantore, Nicola; Calì, Massimiliano; Velde, Dirk Willem te

    2016-01-01

    Does a trade-off exist between energy efficiency and economic growth? This question underlies some of the tensions between economic and environmental policies, especially in developing countries that often need to expand their industrial base to grow. This paper contributes to the debate by analyzing the relationship between energy efficiency and economic performance at the micro- (total factor productivity) and macro-level (countries' economic growth). It uses data on a large sample of manufacturing firms across 29 developing countries to find that lower levels of energy intensity are associated with higher total factor productivity for the majority of these countries. The results are robust to a variety of checks. Suggestive cross-country evidence points towards the same relation measured at the macro-level as well. - Highlights: •Total factor productivity is an accurate proxy of technological change. •Energy efficiency triggers total factor productivity especially in manufacturing. •Technological change via energy efficiency in manufacturing is an engine of growth.

  15. Ecosystem service provision in a changing Europe: adapting to the impacts of combined climate and socio-economic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunford, Robert W; Smith, Alison C; Harrison, Paula A; Hanganu, Diana

    Future patterns of European ecosystem services provision are likely to vary significantly as a result of climatic and socio-economic change and the implementation of adaptation strategies. However, there is little research in mapping future ecosystem services and no integrated assessment approach to map the combined impacts of these drivers. Map changing patterns in ecosystem services for different European futures and (a) identify the role of driving forces; (b) explore the potential influence of different adaptation options. The CLIMSAVE integrated assessment platform is used to map spatial patterns in services (food, water and timber provision, atmospheric regulation, biodiversity existence/bequest, landscape experience and land use diversity) for a number of combined climatic and socio-economic scenarios. Eight adaptation strategies are explored within each scenario. Future service provision (particularly water provision) will be significantly impacted by climate change. Socio-economic changes shift patterns of service provision: more dystopian societies focus on food provision at the expense of other services. Adaptation options offer significant opportunities, but may necessitate trade-offs between services, particularly between agriculture- and forestry-related services. Unavoidable trade-offs between regions (particularly South-North) are also identified in some scenarios. Coordinating adaptation across regions and sectors will be essential to ensure that all needs are met: a factor that will become increasingly pressing under dystopian futures where inter-regional cooperation breaks down. Integrated assessment enables exploration of interactions and trade-offs between ecosystem services, highlighting the importance of taking account of complex cross-sectoral interactions under different future scenarios of planning adaptation responses.

  16. VERSHINA – A POLISH VILLAGE IN SIBERIA. FACTORS INFLUENCING LANGUAGE MAINTENANCE UNDER CHANGING SOCIAL, CULTURAL, ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michał Głuszkowski

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses factors influencing language maintenance under changing social, cultural, economic and political conditions of Polish minority in Siberia. The village of Vershina was founded in 1910 by Polish voluntary settlers from Little Poland.During its first three decades Vershina preserved Polish language,traditions, farming methods and machines and also the Roman Catholic religion. The changes came to a village in taiga in the1930s. Vershina lost its ethnocultural homogeneity because of Russian and Buryat workers in the local kolkhoz. Nowadays the inhabitants of Vershina regained their minority rights: religious, educational and cultural. However, during the years of sovietization and ateization, their culture and customs became much more similar to other Siberian villages. Polish language in Vershina is under strong influence of Russian, which is the language of education,administration, and surrounding villages. Children from Polish-Russian families become monolingual and use Polish very rare, only asa school subject and in contacts with grandparents. The process of abandoning mother tongue in Vershina is growing rapidly. However,there are some factors which may hinder the actual changes:the activity of local Polish organisations and Roman Catholic parish as well as folk group “Jazhumbek”.

  17. Rapid Assessment of Small Changes to Major Gun and Projectile Dynamic Parameters

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Erline, Thomas

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Navy's 5-in 54-cal. (5"/54) gun system Mark (Mk) 45 was subjected to first-order dynamic analysis tools that allowed rapid assessment of ballistic dispersion of a typical naval high explosive projectile...

  18. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.; Sobel, A.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  19. Climate change economics on a small island: new approaches for Tobago

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simpson, Murray [University of Oxford (United Kingdom); Birch, Tom

    2011-01-15

    For small islands like Tobago — that depend heavily on tourism driven by their natural 'beauty' — climate change poses a double-edged threat on supply and demand. Rising sea levels, increasing temperatures and more frequent and intense storms will damage the island's natural assets, such as coral reefs and beaches. This could have a heavy impact on tourism, which will also be affected by climate policy in 'source' countries. But what exactly will that impact be? How much will it cost? And what can be done about it? Traditional economic analysis is ill-equipped to answer these questions because it offers static and highly uncertain models and assessments of damage and loss, rather than flexible response options that consider system dynamics. We urgently need to use and expand new forms of economic analysis to better support the difficult decisions that Caribbean policymakers face as a result of climate change.

  20. [Changes in employment, retirement age and fertility: their effects on economic dependency and per capita income].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravo, J H

    1991-04-01

    This article provides a very simplified analysis of the impact of changes in unemployment, retirement age, and fertility on economic dependency and per capita income in Latin America. The macroeconomic consequences of variations in age structure have received a little recent attention among Latin American researchers and policymakers, partly because of the lack of simple but rigorous analytical models to orient research. This analysis is simplified in that it focuses on changes in age distribution but does not explicitly consider effects of changes in population size, even though in reality the 2 types of changes are interrelated. The analysis has also been simplified by not taking into account any type of causal interaction between the demographic and economic variables analyzed; only the most elementary accounting relations between them are utilized. The 1st section defines the concept of economic dependency, specifies the effects of changes in its demographic and economic components, and establishes a simple link between the dependency ratio and per capita income. These and other derivations in the following sections permit evaluation of the impact of changes in employment, retirement age, and fertility on the dependency ratio and per capita income. The work concludes with a synthesis and general discussion, including a theoretical consideration of the effects of interactions among components. Only the most important equations are presented in the main text, but all variables, equations, and relations are defined and derived in the appendix. 6 countries were studied to illustrate the relationships in the context of the demographic diversity of Latin America. Argentina and Cuba represented countries in an advanced stage of the demographic transition, Chile and Mexico represented an intermediate phase, and Bolivia and Peru represented countries at the beginning of the transition. Results of decomposition of changes in dependency and income due to each of the

  1. Communicating climate change – Learning from business: challenging values, changing economic thinking, innovating the low carbon economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharina Kaesehage

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The risks and opportunities presented by climate change for Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs have been largely overlooked by previous research. The subsequent lack of knowledge in this field makes it difficult for SMEs to engage with climate change in a meaningful, profitable, and sustainable way. Further, current research cannot explain why SMEs rarely engage with climate change. We examine critically 30 SMEs, which engage with climate change knowledges and 5 Innovation-Support-Organizations (ISOs that communicate climate change knowledges. Over a three-year period we explore why and how these businesses approach the knowledge gap between climate change science and business practice, drawing on a variety of ethnographic research methods: (1 in-depth semi-structured and open interviews; (2 participant observations; and (3 practitioners’ workshops. The results demonstrate that business’ mitigation and adaptation strategies are lay-knowledge-dependent, derived from personal values, space, and place identity. To enhance the number of SMEs engaging with climate change, maximize the potential value of climate change for the econo- my and establish a low carbon economy, climate change communication needs to target personal values of business leaders. The message should highlight local impacts of climate change, the benefits of engagement to (the local society and economy, and possible financial benefits for the business. Climate change communication therefore needs to go beyond thinking about potential financial benefits and scientific evidence and challenge values, cultures, and beliefs to stimulate economic, political, and social frameworks that promote values-based decision-making.

  2. Major Demographic Changes in Bangladesh and their Socio-economic Correlates: Analysis of Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammad, Hossain; Tisdell, Clement A.

    2003-01-01

    Catalogues the demographic changes in Bangladesh during the period 1975-2000 and examines how they relate to key socio-economic attributes. Trends are examined in population growth, growth of the working age population, women’s workforce participation, age-dependency ratio, female-male ratio, longevity, fertility, mortality and mean age at first marriage. Bangladesh has made significant breakthroughs in all these areas, a feat not matched by most other South Asian countries, but comparable wi...

  3. Life cycle assessment of biochar systems: estimating the energetic, economic, and climate change potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Kelli G; Gloy, Brent A; Joseph, Stephen; Scott, Norman R; Lehmann, Johannes

    2010-01-15

    Biomass pyrolysis with biochar returned to soil is a possible strategy for climate change mitigation and reducing fossil fuel consumption. Pyrolysis with biochar applied to soils results in four coproducts: long-term carbon (C) sequestration from stable C in the biochar, renewable energy generation, biochar as a soil amendment, and biomass waste management. Life cycle assessment was used to estimate the energy and climate change impacts and the economics of biochar systems. The feedstocks analyzed represent agricultural residues (corn stover), yard waste, and switchgrass energy crops. The net energy of the system is greatest with switchgrass (4899 MJ t(-1) dry feedstock). The net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for both stover and yard waste are negative, at -864 and -885 kg CO(2) equivalent (CO(2)e) emissions reductions per tonne dry feedstock, respectively. Of these total reductions, 62-66% are realized from C sequestration in the biochar. The switchgrass biochar-pyrolysis system can be a net GHG emitter (+36 kg CO(2)e t(-1) dry feedstock), depending on the accounting method for indirect land-use change impacts. The economic viability of the pyrolysis-biochar system is largely dependent on the costs of feedstock production, pyrolysis, and the value of C offsets. Biomass sources that have a need for waste management such as yard waste have the highest potential for economic profitability (+$69 t(-1) dry feedstock when CO(2)e emission reductions are valued at $80 t(-1) CO(2)e). The transportation distance for feedstock creates a significant hurdle to the economic profitability of biochar-pyrolysis systems. Biochar may at present only deliver climate change mitigation benefits and be financially viable as a distributed system using waste biomass.

  4. Female streetwalkers' perspectives on migration and HIV/STI risks in a changing economic and social environment: a qualitative study in Shanghai, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Z Jennifer; Hu, Dier; Chang, Ruth; Zaccaro, Heather; Iguchi, Martin; Zheng, Huang; He, Na

    2015-01-01

    China's 30-year economic boom has created a unique social and economic market for commercial sex, as well as for a workforce of migrant women from rural China. This qualitative study explores the impact of the rapidly changing social and economic environment on migration patterns, knowledge of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), STI risk behaviours and health beliefs among female streetwalkers in Shanghai. Qualitative data were collected in 2010 through semi-structured in-depth interviews with 16 streetwalkers to characterise their migration passages, sexual health and behaviours, and peer networks. Many streetwalkers reported histories of childhood impoverishment, of family or partner violence or trauma, of migration consistent with the timeline and routes of economic development and of a scarcity in health, social or economic support. Their knowledge of the prevention and treatment of HIV and STIs was limited. They had little bargaining power on condom use and the majority resorted to vaginal douching and self-management with antibiotics as preventative measures. The study identifies streetwalkers' perspectives on the changing environment, their options and actions and, finally, HIV/STI risks that were unique to this hidden population.

  5. Organizational Adaptation to the Rapidly Changing External Environment: A Case Study of Strategic Marketing at Notre Dame College in Ohio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Shawn M.

    2012-01-01

    This thesis examined the role of strategic marketing in organizational adaptation to a rapidly changing and competitive external environment among institutions of higher education. Colleges and universities adapt to external pressures as open systems operating within a broader external environment (Bess & Dee, 2008; Keller, 1983). How does…

  6. Neolithisation of the Aegean and Southeast Europe during the 6600–6000 calBC period of Rapid Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernhard Weninger

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In extension of the recently established ‘Rapid Climate Change (RCC Neolithisation Model’ (Clare 2013, in the present paper we demonstrate the existence of a remarkable coincidence between the exact (decadel-scale entry and departure dates of the Neolithic into/from the Aegean (~6600/6050 calBC with begin/end of RCC-conditions.

  7. Economic valuation of the downstream hydrological effects of land use change: Large hydroelectric reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aylward, Bruce Allan

    1998-12-01

    Land use change that accompanies economic development and population growth is intended to raise the economic productivity of land. An inevitable by product of this process is the alteration of natural vegetation and downstream hydrological function. This dissertation explores hydrological externalities of land use change in detail, particularly with regard to their economic impact on large hydroelectric reservoirs (LHRs). A review of the linkages between land use, hydrological function and downstream economic activity suggests that on theoretical grounds the net welfare effect of land use change on hydrological function will be indeterminate. Review of the literature suggests that, though the effects of downstream sedimentation will typically be negative, they may often be of little practical significance. The literature on water quantity impacts is sparse at best. This is most surprising in the case of the literature on LHRs where the potentially important and positive effects of increased water yield are typically ignored in favor of simplistic efforts to document the negative effects of reservoir sedimentation. In order to improve the methodological basis for the economic valuation of hydrological externalities, the dissertation considers existing techniques for the evaluation of non-marketed goods and services, clarifying the manner in which they have been and, in the future, may be applied to the topic at hand. A deterministic simulation model is then constructed for the case of LHRs. The model incorporates the effect of changes in water yield, the seasonal pattern of water yield and sedimentation of live and dead storage volumes as they affect reservoir operation and the production of hydroelectricity. The welfare effects of changes in the productivity of the LHR in the short run and changes to the power system expansion plan in the long run are evaluated using the marginal opportunity costs of alternative power sources and power plants, respectively. A case

  8. Hydro-economic modeling of water scarcity under global change: an application to the Gállego river basin (Spain)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graveline, N.; Majone, B.; van Duinen, Rianne; Ansink, E.

    2014-01-01

    Integrated approaches are needed to assess the effects of global changes on the future state of water resources at regional scales. We develop a hydro-economic model of the Gállego catchment, Spain, to assess how global change and policy options affect the catchment’s water scarcity and the economic

  9. The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Changes on the Economic Activities in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Rina Juliet Artami; Yonosuke Hara

    2018-01-01

    This paper analyzes the asymmetric impact of oil price changes on the economic growth of and inflation in Indonesia by using the vector autoregression (VAR) model for the period from 1990Q1 to 2016Q4. The results show that the impact of oil price changes on the gross domestic product (GDP) is asymmetric, as a drop in oil prices decreases the GDP, whereas an increase in oil prices does not significantly affect GDP. It is crucial for Indonesia to reduce its dependency on oil, mainly as its prim...

  10. Sustainability of the Organizational Changes in the Context of Global Economic Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armenia Androniceanu

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, as a result of the hastening economic crisis, the Romanian business environment has known important changes. This paper presents and analyzes the changes caused by globalization in small and medium enterprises that exports goods and services from Bucharest. The purpose of the research was to discover the impact of global crisis upon the concerned group of enterprises and the organizational changes implemented by them. Through the research we succeeded to identify the main problems that occurred in the target group enterprises in the context of global economic crisis and what caused the reduction in their developing rhythm. Another part of the paper contains an analysis of the managers perceptions regarding the governmental anti-crisis measures and strategic and tactical changes initiated by them as a natural need to adapt to the particularities of the internal and international business environment. The final part includes the conclusions of the research and a sum of recommendations for efficient management of organizational changes in target group enterprises, with the possibility of generalizing them to all Romanian small and medium enterprises.

  11. Exergo-economic analysis of finned tube for waste heat recovery including phase change heat transfer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Shuang Ying; Jiu, Jing Rui; Xiao, Lan; Li, You Rong; Liu, Chao; Xu, Jin Liang

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, an exergo-economic criterion, i.e. the net profit per unit transferred heat load, is established from the perspective of exergy recovery to evaluate the performance of finned tube used in waste heat recovery. Also, the dimensionless exergy change number is introduced to investigate the effect of the flow (mechanical) exergy loss rate on the recovered thermal exergy. Selecting R245fa as a working fluid and exhaust flue gas as a heat source, the effects of the internal Reynolds number Re_i, the external Reynolds number Re_o , the unit cost of thermal exergy ε_q , the geometric parameter of finned tube η_oβ and the phase change temperature T_v etc. on the performance of finned tube are discussed in detail. The results show that the higher T_v and η_oβ, and lower Re_i may lead to the negligible flow(mechanical) exergy loss rate. There exists an optimal value of Re_i where the net profit per unit transferred heat load peaks, while the variations of Re_o, ε_q and T_v cause monotonic change of the net profit per unit transferred heat load. The phase change temperature exerts relatively greater influence on the exergo-economic performance of finned tube in comparison with other parameters. And there exists a critical phase change temperature, where the net profit per unit transferred heat load is equal to zero.

  12. The Non-economic Dimension of Changes Prompted by Cross-border Acquisitions: A Relational View

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sérgio Fernando Loureiro Rezende

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Building on the relational view of M&A suggested by the Industrial Network Approach, we looked at the noneconomic dimension of post-acquisition changes in the relationships of the acquired firm. Based on a 2x2 matrix, this is illustrated by the relationships between the acquired firm with for-profit organizations through which noneconomic resources are transacted (called Social or with non-profit organizations with which it transacts either economic (called Partnership or non-economic resources (called Community. We built a qualitative case study from the acquisition of the Brazilian firm Paraíso Group by the Swiss multinational Holcim, and focused on ten relationships of the acquired firm. We found that these relationships changed in terms of professionalism, degree of dependence and number of actors. An increase in professionalism is observed in all the relationships. This type and direction of change was considered the most important post-acquisition change. The degree of dependence and number of actors changes happened in specific segments of the acquired firm’s network, represented by the Community and Social relationships, respectively.

  13. How much will be economic impact of climate change on water resources? A Meta-Analytic Review of previous literature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshikawa, S.; Iseri, Y.; Kanae, S.

    2016-12-01

    Water resources is vital in social and economic activities. Total global water use is increasing, mainly due to economic and population growth in developing countries. It has one of risk with high agreement and robust evidence that freshwater-related risks of climate change increase significantly with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. It is difficult to compare the risk with other field risk (e.g. agriculture, forestry, sea level rise) for considering both adaptation and mitigation policy with the level of decision makers and public servants. Economic impacts of climate change on water scarcity has been estimated by economic researchers. We have no certainty at all about integration between hydrological and economical fields on global scale. In this study, we highlight key concerns about conventional estimations of economic impact on water resources through meta-analysis. The economic impact on water resource in same base year using consumer price index is shown with increase in the global mean temperature. We clarified four concerns which are involved in 1) classification of economic mechanism, 2) estimated items of economic impact, 3) difference in estimating equations, and 4) definition of parameters related with economic impact of climate change. This study would be essential to next challenge as transdisciplinary research between hydrologic and economic fields.

  14. Economic and Ecological Evaluation of Land Use Change: Evidence from Karelia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Sergeevich Strokov

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Land use change and a shift in economic activity often bring to unpredictable consequences for local ecosystems. There is a necessity of making preliminary evaluation and analysis of comparing the different types of economic and ecological transformation, including cost and benefit analysis, not only for business and local population, but for the whole environment. We give an example of a particular animal husbandry farm in Karelia and show how potential change in economic specialization can be effective on a 10 years horizon. Among other land use types, we chose peat mining and wetland conservation. Each type of activities was complexly evaluated with different types of costs and benefits. In the paper, we use a method of land use change evaluation including the value of ecosystem services. The monetary values of ecosystem services are given with the respect to foreign analogues and taking into account local realities and prices. Our results have shown that the most beneficial for the society and the environment is wetland conservation, due to their berries picking service, which are highly appreciated on the market, and due to low costs for the third parties, since wetlands contain regulative and refinery services for local ecosystems. As a contrary peat mining is a profitable business, but pollutes the environment because of carbon emissions into the atmosphere. The current specialization for animal husbandry is neither an optimal solution because of low profitability of the chosen farm. The results of the research can be used for optimization in regional politics in the sphere of agriculture and environment economics in order to protect the ecological balance between human activities and nature.

  15. Modelling Hydrology and Erosion in a Changing Socio-Economic Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkby, M. J.; van Delden, H.; Hahn, B. M.; Irvine, B. J.

    2009-12-01

    Although forecasting systems have a limited time horizon due to the impact of unforeseen events, a rationally based model is able to provide some insights into likely short term behaviour, taking account of the dynamic interactions between climate, physical processes and land use decisions. The biophysical model (PESERA) takes land use decisions as inputs, together with climatic data or scenarios, topography and soils, to generate estimates of runoff, soil erosion, crop or natural vegetation growth and physical suitability, primarily based on crop yields. Estimates are made at a spatial resolution of 100 - 1000 m according to the area involved, the former for a catchment of say 1000 km2, the latter for a continental region. The generic dynamic land-use (change) model (METRONAMICA) has been fully integrated with PESERA to create the ‘Integrated Assessment Model’ (IAM) within the DESURVEY European project. The IAM takes biophysical performance and other spatial characteristics as an input and combines them with socio-economic data to determine potential suitability for each possible residential, commercial, agricultural etc use. The model then allocates each land use type and detailed agricultural class to the locations with the highest potential, based on neighbouring and historic choices as well as short-term economic advantage to estimate probabilities of change to alternative uses. Suitability, accessibility and zoning regulations are included in the decision process to provide the locational characteristics. Change of land use over time is thus determined within a cellular automaton model that generates rational spatial patterns of land use choice. The IAM is being applied at country scale in southern Europe and to smaller regions in North Africa. Although, in the long term, climate change is likely to dominate physical and economic impacts, in the shorter term over which this type of model can most reliably be used, the significance of land use change is

  16. Symposium on Pacific Energy Cooperation '99. Changing economic environment and energy cooperation in Asia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-02-16

    Compiled in this publication are the papers delivered at the above conference held in Tokyo on February 16-17, 1999. Presented in Session 1, entitled 'economic reforms and energy situation in Asian countries,' are the causes and lessons of economic and financial crisis in the Asian countries and the prospect of restoration; the outlook of energy supply and demand in the Asia Pacific region; and a message from APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference) Okinawa Energy Ministers' Meeting. Discussed in Session 2, entitled 'energy security in the Asia Pacific region,' are the outlook for world oil prices; and the stable supply of oil and gas in the Asia Pacific region. Discussed in Session 3, entitled the 'deregulation of the energy sector in the Asia Pacific region,' are the deregulation of the power sector, progress and problems; and the privatization of the oil and gas sectors. Many papers are presented also in Session 4, entitled the 'energy and environment in the Asia Pacific region, and in Session 5 entitled 'pacific energy cooperation in the changing economic and energy environment.' (NEDO)

  17. Symposium on Pacific Energy Cooperation '99. Changing economic environment and energy cooperation in Asia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-02-16

    Compiled in this publication are the papers delivered at the above conference held in Tokyo on February 16-17, 1999. Presented in Session 1, entitled 'economic reforms and energy situation in Asian countries,' are the causes and lessons of economic and financial crisis in the Asian countries and the prospect of restoration; the outlook of energy supply and demand in the Asia Pacific region; and a message from APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference) Okinawa Energy Ministers' Meeting. Discussed in Session 2, entitled 'energy security in the Asia Pacific region,' are the outlook for world oil prices; and the stable supply of oil and gas in the Asia Pacific region. Discussed in Session 3, entitled the 'deregulation of the energy sector in the Asia Pacific region,' are the deregulation of the power sector, progress and problems; and the privatization of the oil and gas sectors. Many papers are presented also in Session 4, entitled the 'energy and environment in the Asia Pacific region, and in Session 5 entitled 'pacific energy cooperation in the changing economic and energy environment.' (NEDO)

  18. Examining the impacts of oil price changes on economic indicators: A panel approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Kah Boon; Sek, Siok Kun

    2017-04-01

    The impact of oil price on global economy is evident from many studies and research findings. In this study, we extend the research on examining the impact of oil price changes on economic indicators in terms of economic growth and inflation by comparing different groups of economies (high income versus low income countries and oil importing versus oil exporting countries). Our main objective is to reveal if such impact varies across country income level/ development and oil dependency. In addition, we also seek to compare the impacts of oil price relative to the other factors indicators (money supply, foreign direct investment, exchange rate, government expenditure, inflation and gross domestic product) on economy. For the purpose of this study, the co-integration regression (DOLS and FMOLS) techniques are applied to the panel dataset of four groups of economies which contain 10 countries in each panel dataset. The analysis results show that oil price is not the main determinant although it can have a significant impact on inflation and economic growth across all groups of economies. The three main determinants of economic growth are exchange rate, aggregate demand and government expenditure while the determinants of inflation are aggregate supply and exchange rate. Furthermore, our result also concludes that oil price has a positive impact in oil exporting economies but it shows a negative impact in oil importing economies due to the oil dependency factor.

  19. Transformation of the Terminological Apparatus of Economic Development of Innovation Activity under Conditions of Dynamic Changes in the External Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharko Margarita V.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to analyze the content interpretation of categorical concepts of economic development of production functioning under conditions of dynamic changes in the exploitation of the external environment. The article presents the author’s interpretation of the concepts of economic development and economic growth under conditions of dynamic changes in the external environment. The urgency of unification and systematization of the main interpretations of economic growth as a means of choosing and using certain management solutions under specific production conditions is substantiated. Based on the construction of the Ishikawa diagram, the reasons and difficulties of the economic growth of enterprises are graded. The conditions and factors of the conceptual apparatus of innovation activity under uncertainty are structured. It is shown that the complex application of iterative methods and methods of factor analysis provides a holistic perception of the dominant tendencies of economic development under conditions of dynamic changes in the external environment.

  20. Rapid fluvial aggradation in response to climate change in northwestern Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickert, Andrew; Schildgen, Taylor; Strecker, Manfred

    2015-04-01

    River channels near the edge of the northwestern Argentine Andes are rapidly aggrading at present, with preliminary estimates suggesting rates of ~20 cm yr-1. This mirrors cycles of extensive aggradation over the past 100,000 years that formed pronounced fill terraces along regional valley networks and record periods in which in which climate-driven sediment supply overcame uplift-driven river incision (Robinson et al, 2005). Here we use the new SedFlow model (Heimann et al., 2014) to help us understand the causes and spread of aggradation across these basins in the modern system, with the additional eventual goal to better interpret the geologic record. We provide field-derived grain-size distributions, field-measured and remotely-sensed channel widths and valley slopes, and a variety of possible sediment source locations and amounts as inputs to SedFlow, which routes sediment through the fluvial channel network to produce time-evolving predictions of aggradation and incision. We compare these predictions against changes in topography measured by IceSAT (Zwally et al., 2014) and field surveys. We initially test the system response to a series of isolated sediment inputs to observe interactions between tributary systems and the mainstem river. Recent observations indicate that debris-flow induced landslides are important contributors to aggradation in these rivers (Cencetti and Rivelli, 2011). These and other sediment production and transport processes are likely driven by variations in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Bookhagen and Strecker, 2009). Therefore, we then run SedFlow with sediment inputs distributed across the landscape based on locations where ENSO influences may trigger enhanced landsliding. These model experiments help us towards our end goal of providing a more quantitative basis to interpret field observations of landscape response to changing patterns of precipitation. References: Bookhagen, B. and Strecker, M.: Amazonia: Landscape and

  1. Between professional autonomy and economic orientation - The medical profession in a changing health care system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kälble, Karl

    2005-02-17

    The current discussions surrounding the German health care system are being determined and defined by the concepts of "profitability", "efficiency" and "saving". These concepts also determine the demands made on this system and have had an effect on the medical profession. The economy's growing influence on physicians' decision-making and the increasing necessity to look at and regulate services under economic aspects arising from the need to save costs are seen by the medical profession as a threat to its autonomous conduct and freedom to make decisions, in other words it sees it as a danger to its medical orientation. Conflicts between medical autonomy and economic orientation in physicians' conduct are therefore already foreseeable, as are conflicts between medicine and economy in regards to who has the power to define the terms of the public health system. This article will outline the area of conflict based on the available literature. It will discuss how the political and economic regulatory attempts affect the medical profession's autonomous conduct. It will also discuss which conflicts of conduct emerge for physicians, what types of solutions the medical profession tends to develop as a reaction, and whether or not this tension between medical and economic orientation can be resolved in an acceptable way. This article should first outline the changed economic and political basic conditions and the attempts to reform the German health care system, using this as a starting point. Following this, it will explore the significance professional autonomy acquires within the concept of profession from the point of view of the sociology of professions. With this in mind, the third part of this article will describe and analyze the effects of advanced economization on the medical profession's autonomous conduct, which has long been regarded as uncontested. This part of the article will also describe and analyze the medical profession's strategies it uses to defend

  2. Between professional autonomy and economic orientation — The medical profession in a changing health care system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kälble, Karl

    2005-01-01

    The current discussions surrounding the German health care system are being determined and defined by the concepts of "profitability", "efficiency" and "saving". These concepts also determine the demands made on this system and have had an effect on the medical profession. The economy's growing influence on physicians' decision-making and the increasing necessity to look at and regulate services under economic aspects arising from the need to save costs are seen by the medical profession as a threat to its autonomous conduct and freedom to make decisions, in other words it sees it as a danger to its medical orientation. Conflicts between medical autonomy and economic orientation in physicians' conduct are therefore already foreseeable, as are conflicts between medicine and economy in regards to who has the power to define the terms of the public health system. Objective: This article will outline the area of conflict based on the available literature. It will discuss how the political and economic regulatory attempts affect the medical profession's autonomous conduct. It will also discuss which conflicts of conduct emerge for physicians, what types of solutions the medical profession tends to develop as a reaction, and whether or not this tension between medical and economic orientation can be resolved in an acceptable way. Methodology: This article should first outline the changed economic and political basic conditions and the attempts to reform the German health care system, using this as a starting point. Following this, it will explore the significance professional autonomy acquires within the concept of profession from the point of view of the sociology of professions. With this in mind, the third part of this article will describe and analyze the effects of advanced economization on the medical profession's autonomous conduct, which has long been regarded as uncontested. This part of the article will also describe and analyze the medical profession

  3. We really need to talk: adapting FDA processes to rapid change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lykken, Sara

    2013-01-01

    The rapidly evolving realm of modern commerce strains traditional regulatory paradigms. This paper traces the historical evolution of FDA crisis-response regulation and provides examples of ways in which the definitions and procedures resulting from that past continue to be challenged by new products as market entrants, some in good faith and others not, take actions that create disconnects between actual product and marketing controls and those that consumers might expect. The paper then explores some of the techniques used by other federal agencies that have faced similar challenges in environments characterized by rapid innovation, and draws from this analysis suggestions for improvement of the FDA's warning letter system.

  4. The economics of climate change impacts a la Stern. Novel and nuanced or rhetorically restricted?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spash, Clive L. [CSIRO, Sustainable Ecosystems Division, GPO Box 284, Canberra, ACT 2601 (Australia)

    2007-09-15

    The Stern report conducts an estimation of Greenhouse Gas control costs weighed against the benefits of avoiding damages at the global scale. As I show, Stern and colleagues are aware of the limits to CBA (cost benefit analysis), although they chose to ignore the considerable literature on the subject, the many contributions by ecological economists, and especially work specific to the enhanced Greenhouse Effect. Various problems are raised or mentioned in the report including: strong uncertainty, incommensurability, plural values, non-utilitarian ethics, rights, distributional inequity, poverty, and treatment of future generations. How then can this report, acknowledging so many of those aspects of climate change that render CBA an unsuitable tool for generating policy recommendations, go ahead to conduct a global CBA and make policy recommendations? I explain how issues are suppressed and sidelined in a careful and methodical manner, with the pretence they have been addressed by 'state of the art' solutions. Meanwhile, the authors maintain allegiance to an economic orthodoxy which perpetuates the dominant political myth that traditional economic growth can be both sustained and answer all our problems. Besides perpetuating myths, this diverts attention away from alternative approaches, away from ethical debates over harming the innocent, the poor and future generations, and away from the fundamental changes needed to tackle the very real and serious problems current economic systems pose for environmental systems. (author)

  5. Economic growth and health progress in England and Wales: 160 years of a changing relation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapia Granados, José A

    2012-03-01

    Using data for England and Wales during the years 1840-2000, a negative relation is found between economic growth--measured by the rate of growth of gross domestic product (GDP)--and health progress--as indexed by the annual increase in life expectancy at birth (LEB). That is, the lower is the rate of growth of the economy, the greater is the annual increase in LEB for both males and females. This effect is much stronger, however, in 1900-1950 than in 1950-2000, and is very weak in the 19th century. It appears basically at lag zero, though some short-lag effects of the same negative sign are found. In the other direction of causality, there are very small effects of the change in LEB on economic growth. These results add to an emerging consensus that in the context of long-term declining trends, mortality oscillates procyclically during the business cycle, declining faster in recessions. Therefore, LEB increases faster during recessions than during expansions. The investigation also shows how the relation between economic growth and health progress changed in England and Wales during the study period. No evidence of cointegration between income--as indexed by GDP or GDP per capita--and health--as indexed by LEB--is found. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Estimating the Health and Economic Impacts of Changes in Local Air Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvour, Martha L.; Hughes, Amy E.; Fann, Neal

    2018-01-01

    Objectives. To demonstrate the benefits-mapping software Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMAP-CE), which integrates local air quality data with previously published concentration–response and health–economic valuation functions to estimate the health effects of changes in air pollution levels and their economic consequences. Methods. We illustrate a local health impact assessment of ozone changes in the 10-county nonattainment area of the Dallas–Fort Worth region of Texas, estimating the short-term effects on mortality predicted by 2 scenarios for 3 years (2008, 2011, and 2013): an incremental rollback of the daily 8-hour maximum ozone levels of all area monitors by 10 parts per billion and a rollback-to-a-standard ambient level of 65 parts per billion at only monitors above that level. Results. Estimates of preventable premature deaths attributable to ozone air pollution obtained by the incremental rollback method varied little by year, whereas those obtained by the rollback-to-a-standard method varied by year and were sensitive to the choice of ordinality and the use of preloaded or imported data. Conclusions. BenMAP-CE allows local and regional public health analysts to generate timely, evidence-based estimates of the health impacts and economic consequences of potential policy options in their communities. PMID:29698094

  7. The economics of climate change impacts a la Stern. Novel and nuanced or rhetorically restricted?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spash, Clive L.

    2007-01-01

    The Stern report conducts an estimation of Greenhouse Gas control costs weighed against the benefits of avoiding damages at the global scale. As I show, Stern and colleagues are aware of the limits to CBA (cost benefit analysis), although they chose to ignore the considerable literature on the subject, the many contributions by ecological economists, and especially work specific to the enhanced Greenhouse Effect. Various problems are raised or mentioned in the report including: strong uncertainty, incommensurability, plural values, non-utilitarian ethics, rights, distributional inequity, poverty, and treatment of future generations. How then can this report, acknowledging so many of those aspects of climate change that render CBA an unsuitable tool for generating policy recommendations, go ahead to conduct a global CBA and make policy recommendations? I explain how issues are suppressed and sidelined in a careful and methodical manner, with the pretence they have been addressed by 'state of the art' solutions. Meanwhile, the authors maintain allegiance to an economic orthodoxy which perpetuates the dominant political myth that traditional economic growth can be both sustained and answer all our problems. Besides perpetuating myths, this diverts attention away from alternative approaches, away from ethical debates over harming the innocent, the poor and future generations, and away from the fundamental changes needed to tackle the very real and serious problems current economic systems pose for environmental systems. (author)

  8. Environmental and economic risks assessment under climate changes for three land uses scenarios analysis across Teshio watershed, northernmost of Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Min; Shibata, Hideaki; Chen, Li

    2017-12-01

    Land use and climate changes affect on the economy and environment with different patterns and magnitudes in the watershed. This study used risk analysis model stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to evaluate economic and environmental risks caused by four climate change scenarios (baseline, small-, mid- and large changes) and three land uses (paddy dominated, paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated for agriculture) in Teshio watershed in northern Hokkaido, Japan. Under the baseline climate conditions, the lower ranking of economic income of crop yield and higher ranking of pollutant load from agricultural land were both predicted in paddy dominated for agriculture, suggesting that the paddy dominated system caused higher risks of economic and environmental variables compared to other two land uses. Increase of temperature and precipitation increased crop yields under all three climate changes which resulted in increase of the ranking of economic income, indicating that those climate changes could reduce economic risk. The increased temperature and precipitation also accelerated mineralization of organic nutrient and nutrient leaching to river course of Teshio which resulted in increase of the ranking of pollutant load, suggesting that those climate changes could lead to more environmental risk. The rankings of economic income in mid- and large changes of climate were lower than that in small change of climate under paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated systems due to decrease of crop yield, suggesting that climate change led to more economic risk. In summary, the results suggested that increase in temperature and precipitation caused higher risks of both economic and environmental perspectives, and the impacts was higher than those of land use changes in the studied watershed. Those findings would help producers and watershed managers to measure the tradeoffs between environmental protection and agricultural economic development

  9. Economic Models for Inland Navigation in the Context of Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demirel, E.

    2011-01-01

    The inland navigation market of North-Western Europe faces potential problems due to climate change. Different measures may be taken by governments, carriers, and customers to cope with the negative effects of climate change. The effects of climate change on the inland navigation market may also be different for regions with different demand for transport by inland navigation. The research carried out in this dissertation can be seen as an investigation into adaptation strategies and the interaction-effects of imbalance and climate change on the inland navigation market. This gives rise to the following two main research questions for this dissertation: (1) What is the optimal barge-size adjustment for barge operators to cope with climate change, and what are the implications of climate change for investments in inland waterway infrastructure by the public sector?; (2) What is the impact of climate change on freight prices in the inland navigation market in the presence of direction dependent freight imbalances? There is still a gap in the scientific literature on the transport economic aspects of inland navigation in general. This dissertation contributes to this literature by approaching the field in a climate change context. In addition, the incorporation of imperfect information to the backhaul literature can be seen as a contribution to the economic theory. We show that imbalance leads to different impacts of climate change in different regions (even though the climate change may be the same for these regions). As a contribution to decision making, the adaptation strategies that are evaluated from a welfare economic perspective can be mentioned. Both private decision making (choice of barge size) and public decision making (choice of amount to invest in infrastructure) are supported, by providing the optimal values to be chosen for the instruments available. By taking the imbalance issue into account, this study gives insights into how to achieve a fair

  10. Economic Models for Inland Navigation in the Context of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Demirel, E.

    2011-04-06

    The inland navigation market of North-Western Europe faces potential problems due to climate change. Different measures may be taken by governments, carriers, and customers to cope with the negative effects of climate change. The effects of climate change on the inland navigation market may also be different for regions with different demand for transport by inland navigation. The research carried out in this dissertation can be seen as an investigation into adaptation strategies and the interaction-effects of imbalance and climate change on the inland navigation market. This gives rise to the following two main research questions for this dissertation: (1) What is the optimal barge-size adjustment for barge operators to cope with climate change, and what are the implications of climate change for investments in inland waterway infrastructure by the public sector?; (2) What is the impact of climate change on freight prices in the inland navigation market in the presence of direction dependent freight imbalances? There is still a gap in the scientific literature on the transport economic aspects of inland navigation in general. This dissertation contributes to this literature by approaching the field in a climate change context. In addition, the incorporation of imperfect information to the backhaul literature can be seen as a contribution to the economic theory. We show that imbalance leads to different impacts of climate change in different regions (even though the climate change may be the same for these regions). As a contribution to decision making, the adaptation strategies that are evaluated from a welfare economic perspective can be mentioned. Both private decision making (choice of barge size) and public decision making (choice of amount to invest in infrastructure) are supported, by providing the optimal values to be chosen for the instruments available. By taking the imbalance issue into account, this study gives insights into how to achieve a fair

  11. A new economic assessment index for the impact of climate change on grain yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Wenjie; Chou, Jieming; Feng, Guolin

    2007-03-01

    The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community. This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional “yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)” or “yield impact of weather factor” to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore, the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China, and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

  12. A New Economic Assessment Index for the Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community.This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional "yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)" or "yield impact of weather factor" to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore,the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China,and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

  13. Beyond naturalness: Adapting wilderness stewardship to an era of rapid global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Cole

    2012-01-01

    Climate change and its effects are writ large across wilderness landscapes. They always have been and always will be (see Figure 1). But contemporary change is different. For the first time, the pace and direction of climate change appear to be driven significantly by human activities (IPCC 2007), and this change is playing out across landscapes already affected by...

  14. Is Demography Destiny? Urban Population Change and Economic Vitality of Future Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques Poot

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The growth of cities has attracted considerable scholarly attention during the last decade as it is becoming clear that powerful agglomeration forces are reinforcing the role of cities as the engines of economic growth. Close to 4 billion people live in cities, about 55 per cent of the world's population. While population growth rates are declining and the world's population is likely to level off from the middle of the 21st century, probably ending up around 10 billion, further urbanization is expected to continue. Another 3 billion people will become urban citizens this century. At the same time no corner of the world will be sheltered from sweeping demographic changes due to population ageing and increasing migration. Such changes will be amplified in cities. In this paper we combine UN population projections and migration data with our own assumptions to derive projections of age composition and birthplace composition of urban populations by continent. We also briefly address the consequences of these demographic trends for future urban economic vitality. Particular attention is paid to the impacts of demographic changes on urban creativity and innovation. We conclude that, with the right policies in place, such demographic changes enhance rather than impede the future prosperity of the urban world. KEYWORDS: World population projections, urbanization, ageing, migration, ethnic diversity

  15. Impacts of climatic change on water and associated economic activities in the Swiss Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beniston, Martin

    2012-01-01

    SummaryThe European Alps are one region of the world where climate-driven changes are already perceptible, as exemplified by the general retreat of mountain glaciers over past decades. Temperatures have risen by up to 2 °C since 1900 particularly at high elevations, a rate that is roughly three times the global-average 20th century warming. Regional climate models suggest that by 2100, winters in Switzerland may warm by 3-5 °C and summers by 6-7 °C according to greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios, while precipitation is projected to increase in winter and sharply decrease in summer. The impacts of these levels of climatic change will affect both the natural environment and a number of economic activities. Alpine glaciers may lose between 50% and 90% of their current volume and the average snowline will rise by 150 m for each degree of warming. Hydrological systems will respond in quantity and seasonality to changing precipitation patterns and to the timing of snow-melt in the Alps, with a greater risk of flooding during the spring and droughts in summer and fall. The direct and indirect impacts of a warming climate will affect key economic sectors such as tourism, hydropower, agriculture and the insurance industry that will be confronted to more frequent natural disasters. This paper will thus provide an overview of the current state of knowledge on climatic change and its impacts on the Alpine world.

  16. Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Cereal Production: Implications for Sustainable Agriculture in Northern Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anslem Bawayelaazaa Nyuor

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the economic impacts of climate change on cereal crop production in Northern Ghana using 240 households comprising maize and sorghum farmers. The Ricardian regression approach was used to examine the economic impacts of climate change based on data generated from a survey conducted in the 2013/2014 farming seasons. Forty-year time-series data of rainfall and temperature from 1974 to 2013, together with cross-sectional data, were used for the empirical analysis. The Ricardian regression estimates for both maize and sorghum showed varying degrees of climate change impacts on net revenues. The results indicated that early season precipitation was beneficial for sorghum, but harmful for maize. However, mid-season precipitation tended to promote maize production. Temperature levels for all seasons impacted negatively on net revenue for both crops, except during the mid-season, when temperature exerted a positive effect on net revenue for sorghum. Our findings suggest that appropriate adaptation strategies should be promoted to reduce the negative impacts of prevailing climate change on cereal crop production.

  17. Changes in Rational Economic Behavior Model, Caused By the Development of E-Commerce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Menzeleev Ilya, A.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In the paper the author examines the origins of rationality concept and its transformation within the framework of economic science. According to the author, rationality is a fundamental concept both for philosophy and for economics. Changes in rational economic behavior model significantly effect on informal institutes (in short-term perspective and on formal institutes (in long-term period. In the paper it is said about significant changes taking place with humanity right now. Today it becomes more and more difficult to describe human behavior by uniform concept of rationality. Now people live in a world that is developing unprecedentedly fast, with the usage of incredible amount of information, countless tasks and social contacts. The development of the Internet and IT tools facilitate this process. Already since the midtwentieth century advertising and marketing has been influencing people’s lifestyle like politics or news. Media resources brands today are comparable to the resources of some political parties or even TV channels what means that advertising today is one of the main factors affecting consumers ' minds and their behavioral model, main feature of which is the premise of rationality or justification of actions. The author analyzes the changes of models of rationality over time and, above all, the changes caused by the development of Internet marketing and its tools for monitoring user activity and the impact on decision making in the Network. In conclusion a number of recommendations is given, which can help consumers to save an independence in making decisions in the Internet environment.

  18. Standardization and Green Economic Change - the Case of Energy Efficiency in Buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Maj Munch; Faria, Lourenco

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the role of standardization for green economic change using energy efficiency in buildings as a case. Innovation research on standards tends to focus on the competition between competing emerging standards as well as the economic impacts of these. The idea pursued here...... energy efficiency becomes an issue in standardization work using buildings as a case. The paper seeks more specifically to investigate the rise of building related standards generally over time as well as in different technical areas and geographic regions. The hypothesis pursued in this paper...... is that the rise of the green economy can only take place accompanied by considerable institution formation in the form of standards. In this sense, the presence of standards may be seen as an important indicator on the maturity of the greening of the economy. The paper presents early empirical work...

  19. The economics of energy policy in China. Implications for global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhongxiang Zhang [Groningen Univ., Dept. of Economics and Public Finance, Groningen (Netherlands)]|[Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Centre for Environment and Development, Beijing (China)

    1998-08-01

    This book is the first systematic and comprehensive attempt to deal with the economic implications of carbon abatement for the Chinese economy in the light of the economics of climate change. The book provides 1) an analysis of the Chinese energy system in order to shed light on its implications for China`s future CO{sub 2} emissions; 2) a macroeconomic analysis of CO{sub 2} emission limits for China, using a newly-developed computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy; and 3) a cost-effective analysis of carbon abatement options in China`s electricity sector by means of a technology-oriented dynamic optimization model. (UK)

  20. Automatic change detection in RapidEye data using the combined MAD and kernel MAF methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Hecheltjen, Antje; Thonfeld, Frank

    2010-01-01

    The IR-MAD components show changes for a large part of the entire subset. Especially phenological changes in the agricultural fields surrounding the open pit are predominant. As opposed to this, kMAF components focus more on changes in the open-cast mine (and changes due to the two clouds...... and their shadows, not visible in the zoom). Ground data were available from bucket-wheel excavators on the extraction side (to the northwest in the open pit) in terms of elevation data for both dates. No ground data were available for changes due to backfill (southeastern part of the open pit) or changes due...

  1. Effects of changes in stock productivity and mixing on sustainable fishing and economic viability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Eero, Margit

    2017-01-01

    Within the new FMSY European paradigm, this paper shows how a combination of changes in fish stock mixing, non-stationarity in productivity, and constraints on unit stock concepts undermine the effective management of fisheries, especially when management reference points are not adjusted...... accordingly. Recent changes in stock structures, conditions and stock mixing between eastern and western Baltic cod can jeopardize the reliability of stock assessments and of the fishery economy. We modelled how different management, individual vessel decision-making, and stock growth and mixing scenarios...... have induced alternative individual vessel spatial effort allocation and economic performance by affecting fishing costs and by changing the relative stock abundance and size distribution. Stock mixing heavily influences profit and stock abundance for stocks that have experienced increased fishing...

  2. Measuring the economic impact of climate change on major South African field crops: a Ricardian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gbetibouo, G. A.; Hassan, R. M.

    2005-07-01

    This study employed a Ricardian model to measure the impact of climate change on South Africa's field crops and analysed potential future impacts of further changes in the climate. A regression of farm net revenue on climate, soil and other socio-economic variables was conducted to capture farmer-adapted responses to climate variations. The analysis was based on agricultural data for seven field crops (maize, wheat, sorghum, sugarcane, groundnut, sunflower and soybean), climate and edaphic data across 300 districts in South Africa. Results indicate that production of field crops was sensitive to marginal changes in temperature as compared to changes in precipitation. Temperature rise positively affects net revenue whereas the effect of reduction in rainfall is negative. The study also highlights the importance of season and location in dealing with climate change showing that the spatial distribution of climate change impact and consequently needed adaptations will not be uniform across the different agro-ecological regions of South Africa. Results of simulations of climate change scenarios indicate many impacts that would induce (or require) very distinct shifts in farming practices and patterns in different regions. Those include major shifts in crop calendars and growing seasons, switching between crops to the possibility of complete disappearance of some field crops from some region.

  3. The economic aspects of artificial snow production in the perspective of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonseth, C.

    2012-04-01

    Snowmaking is now used by ski resorts worldwide as a measure to cope with both natural snow reduction and variability. This extensive recourse casts doubt on its sustainability mainly because of the large amount of natural resources being used (energy, water). In the middle to long run, this problem is expected to increase with future climate change triggering the production of more snow. The research field that focuses on the economic aspects of artificial snow production is still in its infancy but potentially covers a wide array of issues. Among these issues, benefits and costs of snowmaking are important ones. On the one hand, benefits arise as snowmaking extends or preserves the operating period of ski areas. Several empirical studies speculate or show that snowmaking considerably reduces the sensitivity of tourism consumption to variations in snow conditions. These benefits have long been neglected in studies analyzing the consequences of climate change for the winter tourism sector. While failing to introduce these benefits, many studies have generated overly high costs of climate change. On the other hand, investments and operating costs of artificial snow production depend upon several factors, such as technology and local conditions. Consequently, costs vary considerably from one location to another and over time, yet indicative values can be found in the literature. In addition, artificial snow production generates external costs, i.e. costs that are not born by those producing it. Typical of these external costs are environmental ones that are related to CO2 emissions or biodiversity losses. To our knowledge, very little has been done so far to integrate these costs in economic studies. To the extent that vertical integration is absent, it may happen as well that snow production generates important external benefits for different stakeholders at a given ski resort. From an economic point of view, both types of externalities could lead to investment

  4. Rapidly changing treatment options adding burden to the management of typhoid fever

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaspal Kaur

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Typhoid fever continues to be a global public health problem. It is caused by the facultative intracellular organisms Salmonella enteric serotype Typhi and Salmonella paratyphi. Antimicrobial therapy is the mainstay for treatment of typhoid fever. Chloramphenicol, ampicillin, and cotrimoxazole had been in use for decades for treating enteric fever. But the emergence and rapid spread of drug resistance has resulted in rapid shift of treatment options from chloramphenicol to fluoroquinolones to third generation cephalosporins to azithromycin with tigecycline and carbapenems in line, thus adding burden to the health-care sector in developing countries. Rational and judicious antibiotic prescribing practices by health professionals are necessary to prevent further development of drug resistance and help in re-emergence of sensitive strains.

  5. Changing Ocean, Changing Economics: Impact of Rising Temperatures on the American Lobster Landings and on the US-Canada Lobster Economics in the Emerging Chinese Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, C. H. J.

    2016-02-01

    Record high temperatures in 2012 pushed the start date of the Maine lobster fishing season three weeks earlier than normal. High landings during a compressed time period more than doubled the volume experienced in June and July. As supply outpaced demand, an average 40% decrease in ex-vessel price significantly reduced fishermen's profitability. This study examined how the timing and location of lobster landings is affected by ocean temperatures, number of trips, distance fished from shore, price, and seasonality. Weekly lobster landings and the number of fishing trips in eastern, central, and western Maine from 2008 to 2014 were combined with NERACOOS buoy temperatures to model the change in productivity. The model shows warming leads to significant increases in landings. We also used monthly landings, prices, and trade of live and processed lobster between the U.S. and Canada from 1990 to 2014 to specify a system of equations that captures how both markets are integrated and how they respond to changing market conditions. The model shows that an increase in landings in both areas leads to an increase in lobster trade and then to an increase in US imports of frozen lobster meat. Furthermore, lobster exports to the emerging Chinese market started to expand after 2012 and grew to account for 21% and 11% of the exports value from U.S. and Canada, respectively. From 2010 to 2014, a sub-system model is specified to address how increasing demand in the Chinese market for hard-shell lobster could create incentives to delay production and increase the supply of hard-shell live lobster. The full model was then used to explore ways in which this coastal social-ecological system can adapt to increasing ocean temperature and how the integrated global market might alter the economic implications of the next ocean heatwave.

  6. Methoxychlor and Vinclozolin Induce Rapid Changes in Intercellular and Intracellular Signaling in Liver Progenitor Cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babica, Pavel; Zurabian, Rimma; Kumar, Esha R; Chopra, Rajus; Mianecki, Maxwell J; Park, Joon-Suk; Jaša, Libor; Trosko, James E; Upham, Brad L

    2016-09-01

    Methoxychlor (MXC) and vinclozolin (VIN) are well-recognized endocrine disrupting chemicals known to alter epigenetic regulations and transgenerational inheritance; however, non-endocrine disruption endpoints are also important. Thus, we determined the effects of MXC and VIN on the dysregulation of gap junctional intercellular communication (GJIC) and activation of mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPKs) in WB-F344 rat liver epithelial cells. Both chemicals induced a rapid dysregulation of GJIC at non-cytotoxic doses, with 30 min EC50 values for GJIC inhibition being 10 µM for MXC and 126 µM for VIN. MXC inhibited GJIC for at least 24 h, while VIN effects were transient and GJIC recovered after 4 h. VIN induced rapid hyperphosphorylation and internalization of gap junction protein connexin43, and both chemicals also activated MAPK ERK1/2 and p38. Effects on GJIC were not prevented by MEK1/2 inhibitor, but by an inhibitor of phosphatidylcholine-specific phospholipase C (PC-PLC), resveratrol, and in the case of VIN, also, by a p38 inhibitor. Estrogen (ER) and androgen receptor (AR) modulators (estradiol, ICI 182,780, HPTE, testosterone, flutamide, VIN M2) did not attenuate MXC or VIN effects on GJIC. Our data also indicate that the effects were elicited by the parental compounds of MXC and VIN. Our study provides new evidence that MXC and VIN dysregulate GJIC via mechanisms involving rapid activation of PC-PLC occurring independently of ER- or AR-dependent genomic signaling. Such alterations of rapid intercellular and intracellular signaling events involved in regulations of gene expression, tissue development, function and homeostasis, could also contribute to transgenerational epigenetic effects of endocrine disruptors. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Toxicology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Land use change monitoring in Maryland using a probabilistic sample and rapid photointerpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonya Lister; Andrew Lister; Eunice Alexander

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. state of Maryland needs to monitor land use change in order to address land management objectives. This paper presents a change detection method that, through automation and standard geographic information system (GIS) techniques, facilitates the estimation of landscape change via photointerpretation. Using the protocols developed, we show a net loss of forest...

  8. Rapid lung MRI in children with pulmonary infections: Time to change our diagnostic algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sodhi, Kushaljit Singh; Khandelwal, Niranjan; Saxena, Akshay Kumar; Singh, Meenu; Agarwal, Ritesh; Bhatia, Anmol; Lee, Edward Y

    2016-05-01

    To determine the diagnostic utility of a new rapid MRI protocol, as compared with computed tomography (CT) for the detection of various pulmonary and mediastinal abnormalities in children with suspected pulmonary infections. Seventy-five children (age range of 5 to 15 years) with clinically suspected pulmonary infections were enrolled in this prospective study, which was approved by the institutional ethics committee. All patients underwent thoracic MRI (1.5T) and CT (64 detector) scan within 48 h of each other. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of MRI were evaluated with CT as a standard of reference. Inter-observer agreement was measured with the kappa coefficient. MRI with a new rapid MRI protocol demonstrated sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 100% for detecting pulmonary consolidation, nodules (>3 mm), cyst/cavity, hyperinflation, pleural effusion, and lymph nodes. The kappa-test showed almost perfect agreement between MRI and multidetector CT (MDCT) in detecting thoracic abnormalities (k = 0.9). No statistically significant difference was observed between MRI and MDCT for detecting thoracic abnormalities by the McNemar test (P = 0.125). Rapid lung MRI was found to be comparable to MDCT for detecting thoracic abnormalities in pediatric patients with clinically suspected pulmonary infections. It has a great potential as the first line cross-sectional imaging modality of choice in this patient population. However, further studies will be helpful for confirmation of our findings. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. German enterprises and the changes in energy economics due to increased concerns regarding environmental sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weber Gregor

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This article is part of a first year doctoral research regarding the current state of knowledge in environmental sustainability, energy economics and their impact on European enterprises. As the current changes and modifications of the German energy economics system are observed by people all around the globe, the current paper analyzes what has been said until now in the scientific literature on character of the new strategy for energy consumption and production in Germany and its impact on environmental and social sustainability. With the help of two questionnaire-based surveys conducted in 2013 and 2014 through the German DIHK1, German enterprises were surveyed in order to: identify potential differences and similarities between the two periods, identify the effects of the energy transition on companies’ profitability, and analyze these effects and compare the results in terms of potential trend developments. The research findings confirmed that changes in the energy system affect not only the environmental sustainability only, but also the economy, in some cases even independent of the stage in which the changing system of the economy presently is.

  10. Value for money of changing healthcare services? Economic evaluation of quality improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severens, J

    2003-01-01

    

 There are many instances of perceived or real inefficiencies in health service delivery. Both healthcare providers and policy makers need to know the impact and cost of applying strategies to change the behaviour of individuals or organisations. Quality improvement or implementation research is concerned with evaluating the methods of behavioural change. Addressing inefficiencies in healthcare services raises a series of issues, beginning with how inefficiency itself should be defined. The basic concepts of cost analysis and economic evaluations are explained and a model for working through the economic issues of quality improvement is discussed. This model combines the costs and benefits of corrected inefficiency with the costs and degree of behavioural change achieved by a quality improvement method in the policy maker's locality. It shows why it may not always be cost effective for policy makers to address suboptimal behaviour. Both the interpretation of quality improvement research findings and their local application need careful consideration. The limited availability of applicable quality improvement research may make it difficult to provide robust advice on the value for money of many behavioural quality improvement strategies. PMID:14532369

  11. A Rapid, Highly Efficient and Economical Method of Agrobacterium-Mediated In planta Transient Transformation in Living Onion Epidermis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kedong; Huang, Xiaohui; Wu, Manman; Wang, Yan; Chang, Yunxia; Liu, Kun; Zhang, Ju; Zhang, Yi; Zhang, Fuli; Yi, Liming; Li, Tingting; Wang, Ruiyue; Tan, Guangxuan; Li, Chengwei

    2014-01-01

    Transient transformation is simpler, more efficient and economical in analyzing protein subcellular localization than stable transformation. Fluorescent fusion proteins were often used in transient transformation to follow the in vivo behavior of proteins. Onion epidermis, which has large, living and transparent cells in a monolayer, is suitable to visualize fluorescent fusion proteins. The often used transient transformation methods included particle bombardment, protoplast transfection and Agrobacterium-mediated transformation. Particle bombardment in onion epidermis was successfully established, however, it was expensive, biolistic equipment dependent and with low transformation efficiency. We developed a highly efficient in planta transient transformation method in onion epidermis by using a special agroinfiltration method, which could be fulfilled within 5 days from the pretreatment of onion bulb to the best time-point for analyzing gene expression. The transformation conditions were optimized to achieve 43.87% transformation efficiency in living onion epidermis. The developed method has advantages in cost, time-consuming, equipment dependency and transformation efficiency in contrast with those methods of particle bombardment in onion epidermal cells, protoplast transfection and Agrobacterium-mediated transient transformation in leaf epidermal cells of other plants. It will facilitate the analysis of protein subcellular localization on a large scale. PMID:24416168

  12. Socio-economic scenario development for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural land use: a pairwise comparison approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildtrup, Jens; Audsley, E.; Fekete-Farkas, M.

    2006-01-01

    Assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change is strongly dependent on concurrent changes in socio-economic development pathways. This paper presents an integrated approach to the construction of socio-economic scenarios required for the analysis of climate change impacts...... on European agricultural land use. The scenarios are interpreted from the storylines described in the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES), which ensures internal consistency between the evolution of socio-economics and climate change. A stepwise...... downscaling procedure based on expert-judgement and pairwise comparison is presented to obtain quantitative socio-economic parameters, e.g. prices and productivity estimates that are input to the ACCELERATES integrated land use model. In the first step, the global driving forces are identified and quantified...

  13. Changing Economic Leadership: A New Benchmark of Sector Productivity in the United States and Western Europe, ca. 1910

    OpenAIRE

    Frankema, Ewout; Woltjer, Pieter; Smits, Jan-Pieter

    2013-01-01

    The debate concerning the exact timing and causes of changes in economic leadership constitutes one of the central themes in economic history. This study aims to improve the measurement of economic performance in the United States and Western Europe (Britain, France and the Netherlands) during the long nineteenth century by constructing a new benchmark of sector productivity and new estimates of comparative gdp per capita and per worker. Our main finding is that the Anglo-Dutch and Anglo-Amer...

  14. An economic framework for forecasting land-use and ecosystem change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, David J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper develops a joint econometric-simulation framework to forecast detailed empirical distributions of the spatial pattern of land-use and ecosystem change. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests are used to examine the performance of the parcel-scale econometric and simulation models, and the importance of multiple forecasting challenges is assessed. The econometric-simulation method is integrated with an ecological model to generate forecasts of the probability of localized extinctions of an amphibian species. The paper demonstrates the potential of integrating economic and ecological models to generate ecological forecasts in the presence of alternative market conditions and land-use policy constraints. (author)

  15. Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Tourism: Challenges for Ski Area Operators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damm, A.; Köberl, J.; Prettenthaler, F.; Töglhofer, C.

    2012-04-01

    Increasing temperatures and snow scarce winter seasons pose a big challenge for the winter tourism industry. Changing natural snow reliability influences tourism demand and ski area operators are faced with an enhanced need of technical snow production. The goal of the present research work is to analyze the economic effects of technical snow production under future climate conditions. Snowmaking as an adaptation strategy to climate change impacts on the ski tourism industry is already taken into consideration in several studies from a scientific perspective concerning snowmaking potentials under future climate conditions and the impacts on ski season length (e.g. Scott et al. 2003; Scott & McBoyle 2007; Hennessy et al. 2008; Steiger 2010). A few studies considered economic aspects of technical snowmaking (e.g. Teich et al. 2007; Gonseth 2008). However, a detailed analysis of the costs and benefits of snowmaking under future climate and snow conditions based on sophisticated climate and snow models has not been carried out yet. The present study addresses the gap of knowledge concerning the economic profitability of prospective snowmaking requirements under future climate scenarios. We carry out a detailed cost-revenue analysis of snowmaking under current and future climate conditions for a case study site in Styria (Austria) using dynamic investment models. The starting point of all economic calculations is the daily demand for artificial snow that determines the requirements for additional snowmaking investments and additional operating costs. The demand for artificial snow is delivered by the snow cover model AMUNDSEN (see Strasser et al. 2011) and is driven by four climate scenarios. Apart from future climate conditions the profitability of snowmaking depends on changes in costs and visitor numbers. The results of a ski tourism demand model analyzing daily visitor numbers and their dependencies of prevailing weather conditions enter the cost-revenue analysis of

  16. A replicated climate change field experiment reveals rapid evolutionary response in an ecologically important soil invertebrate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bataillon, Thomas; Galtier, Nicolas; Bernard, Aurelien

    2016-01-01

    to climate change in a common annelid worm using a controlled replicated experiment where climatic conditions were manipulated in a natural setting. Analyzing the transcribed genome of 15 local populations, we found that about 12% of the genetic polymorphisms exhibit differences in allele frequencies......Whether species can respond evolutionarily to current climate change is crucial for the persistence of many species. Yet, very few studies have examined genetic responses to climate change in manipulated experiments carried out innatural field conditions. We examined the evolutionary response...... associated to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture. This shows an evolutionaryresponse to realistic climate change happening over short-time scale, and calls for incorporating evolution into modelspredicting future response of species to climate change. It also shows that designed climate change...

  17. The pro-economical behaviour of households and their knowledge about changes in the energy market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ropuszyńska-Surma Edyta

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The behaviour of energy and heat consumers is an important and interesting topic. For a long time the energy market was the classical example of a monopoly. In general, households are weak partners for energy companies, but energy markets are changing all over the world. This trend is noticeable in Poland too, but it is not as strong as in Germany or other countries where renewable energy sources (RES are very popular and widely used. So, here we investigate why the development of RES in Poland is so weak. The main aim of the paper is to highlight the key factors, especially ecological and economic ones, determining households’ decisions about installing RES in Poland. An additional aim is to present the level of energy awareness of households. We conducted a survey of Lower Silesia’s households in November and December 2015. Economic factors are the best motivators for households to install RES. Among the economic aspects, the respondents indicated potential savings and potential profits.

  18. Environment and Economic Growth. Is Technical Change the Key to Decoupling?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galeotti, M. [Universita di Milano, Milan (Italy)

    2003-09-01

    The relationship between economic growth and pollution is very complex, depending upon a host of different factors. Thus the study of this phenomenon represents a challenging endeavor. While most economics papers begin with theory and support that theory with econometric evidence, the literature on Environmental Kuznets Curves has proceeded in the opposite direction: first developing an empirical observation about the world, and then attempting to supply appropriate theories. A number of papers have aimed at providing the theoretical underpinnings to the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Prominent here is the class of optimal growth models. These are usually studied from the point of view of the analytical conditions that must hold in order to obtain an inverted-U functional relationship between pollution and growth. These models are however seldom confronted with the data. In this paper we take one popular optimal growth model designed for climate change policy analysis and carry out a few simulation exercises with the purpose of characterizing the relationship between economic growth and emissions. In particular, we try to assess the relative contribution of the ingredients of the well-known decomposition of the environment-growth relationship put forth by Grossman (1995): according to it, the presumed inverted-U pattern results from the joint effect of scale, composition, and technology components. We do this focusing on the developed regions of the world and on a global pollutant, CO2 emissions.

  19. Review of economic and energy sector implications of adopting global climate change policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Novak, M.H.

    1997-12-31

    This paper summarizes a number of studies examining potential economic impacts of global climate change policies. Implications for the United States as a whole, the U.S. energy sector, the U.S. economy, businesses and consumers, and world economies are considered. Impact assessments are performed of U.S. carbon emissions, carbon taxes, and carbon restrictions by comparing estimates from various organizations. The following conclusions were made from the economic studies: (1) the economic cost of carbon abatement is expensive; (2) the cost of unilateral action is very expensive with little quantifiable evidence that global emissions are reduced; (3) multilateral actions of developed countries are also very expensive, but there is quantifiable evidence of global emissions reductions; and (4) global actions have only been theoretically addressed. Paralleling these findings, the energy analyses show that the U.S. is technologically unprepared to give up fossil fuels. As a result: (1) carbon is not stabilized without a high tax, (2) stabilization of carbon is elusive, (3) technology is the only long-term answer, and (4) targeted programs may be appropriate to force technology development. 8 tabs.

  20. Economic and Environmental Impacts of Dietary Changes in Iran: An Input-Output Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roham Rahmani

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available  Iran's simple and environmentally extended commodity by commodity input-output (IO model was used to determine the impacts of dietary changes on the Iranian economy and on the environmental load. The original model is based on the status-quo diet and was modified to include the World Health Organization (WHO, the World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF and Mediterranean alternative dietary scenarios. A range of impacts occurred depending upon the relative changes in food items. The direction of changes was similar in the three alternative scenarios. The greatest and smallest impact occurred in the WHO and the Mediterranean scenarios respectively. Total changes in output in WHO, WCRF and Mediterranean dietary scenarios were calculated to be 7010.1, 4802.8 and 3330.8 billion Rials respectively. The outputs of rice, vegetables, fruit, bread and macaroni decreased, but those of live and other animal products increased. The output of non-food commodities and services increased as well. The environmental load increased for three dietary scenarios in comparison with the status-quo diet. The greatest and smallest environmental load occurred in WHO and Mediterranean dietary scenarios respectively. Thus, although dietary changes can have positive effects on economic output, in order to avoid negative environmental effects, it is necessary to consider strategies such as applying capabilities, particularly natural resources in an optimal healthy and environmentally diet, planning for improving forest covering and green space simultaneously with increasing economic activities and using indirect incentives, such as taxes and insurance, for promoting sustainable and healthy foods and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

  1. The contribution of the New Institutional Economics for the analysis of strategies and its theoretical and practical implications for the motor insurance in Germany in the light of socio-demographic and technical changes by the example of carsharing.

    OpenAIRE

    Saeger, Hendrik Ulrich Willi

    2017-01-01

    This work examines the impact of the selected theories of the New Institutional Economics in the form of the principal agent, transaction cost and property rights theories onto the current pressing question for motor insurers of how to align themselves strategically in a rapidly changing more and more digital market, with values and structures of its participants changing at an equally fast rate. The phenomena of carsharing has taken up a dynamic growth in the last years, thus adding to the s...

  2. The Obstacles to Social-Economic Change in Post-Communist Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NAGY EGON

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to study the macroeconomic phase which characterizes present-day Romania, 15 years after the regime- change, embedded into that regional context which Romania is part of. The regional importance of this paper is that Romania is the biggest state of the southeastern region as far as territory and population are concerned. For this reason the country’s economic development cannot be indifferent to the neighbouring states, as it can have positive or negative social effects on them. The Romanian society was passing through a slowly and difficult process of democratization and economic liberalization during the nineties and the turn of the millenium, which was a similar way to the other post-socialist East European countries. The NATO membership of Romania and the imminent EU membership in 2007 are important stimuli to make further progresses on the way to functional capitalism and welfare. As an express of the efficient economy policy at the end of the social-democratic administration the economical growth of Romania rose to the incredible rate of 8.1%, while the budget deficit was only 1.3%. In the autumn of 2004 was elected a right, liberal coalition-government, which began his activity with a radical fiscal reform introducing a unique rate of taxes (16%. In this circumstances the possibility of the avalanche of the FDIs is a real expectance, but Romania still have to fulfill some other requirements, such as the reducing of the almost generalized corruption and to maintain the balance of the budget according to the agreement with the IMF, in order to became a major economic competitor of the Central-Eastern European region.

  3. Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-01-01

    While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy.

  4. Rapid change in the defense of flightless young by a mourning dove parent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berdeen, James; Otis, D.L.

    2011-01-01

    We report that an adult-sized Zenaida macroura (Mourning Dove), presumably a parent, rapidly decreased risk taken in defense of a juvenile as the likelihood of predation to the juvenile increased. We attribute this decrease in risk taken to (1) the parent's perception that the risk of predation had increased to the extent that a continuation of defensive behaviors would not prevent the death of the juvenile, and (2) its attempt to minimize its own risk of death. It may be that there is a threshold beyond which Mourning Dove parents will forgo the risk of additional defense of offspring in favor of making another reproductive attempt.

  5. Operational research leading to rapid national policy change: tuberculosis-diabetes collaboration in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, A M V; Satyanarayana, S; Wilson, N C; Chadha, S S; Gupta, D; Nair, S; Zachariah, R; Kapur, A; Harries, A D

    2014-06-21

    In 2011, bi-directional screening for tuberculosis (TB) and diabetes mellitus (DM) was recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), although how best to implement the activity was not clear. In India, with early engagement of national programme managers and all important stakeholders, a countrywide, multicentre operational research (OR) project was designed in October 2011 and completed in 2012. The results led to a rapid national policy decision to routinely screen all TB patients for DM in September 2012. The process, experience and enablers of implementing this unique and successful collaborative model of operational research are presented.

  6. Assessing climate change and associated socio-economic scenarios for arable farming in the Netherlands: An application of benchmarking and bio-economic farm modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kanellopoulos, A.; Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2014-01-01

    Future farming systems are challenged to adapt to the changing socio-economic and bio-physical environment in order to remain competitive and to meet the increasing requirements for food and fibres. The scientific challenge is to evaluate the consequences of predefined scenarios, identify current

  7. Climate Informed Economic Instruments to Enhance Urban Water Supply Resilience to Hydroclimatological Variability and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, C.; Carriquiry, M.; Souza Filho, F. A.

    2006-12-01

    Hydroclimatological variability presents acute challenges to urban water supply providers. The impact is often most severe in developing nations where hydrologic and climate variability can be very high, water demand is unmet and increasing, and the financial resources to mitigate the social effects of that variability are limited. Furthermore, existing urban water systems face a reduced solution space, constrained by competing and conflicting interests, such as irrigation demand, recreation and hydropower production, and new (relative to system design) demands to satisfy environmental flow requirements. These constraints magnify the impacts of hydroclimatic variability and increase the vulnerability of urban areas to climate change. The high economic and social costs of structural responses to hydrologic variability, such as groundwater utilization and the construction or expansion of dams, create a need for innovative alternatives. Advances in hydrologic and climate forecasting, and the increasing sophistication and acceptance of incentive-based mechanisms for achieving economically efficient water allocation offer potential for improving the resilience of existing water systems to the challenge of variable supply. This presentation will explore the performance of a system of climate informed economic instruments designed to facilitate the reduction of hydroclimatologic variability-induced impacts on water-sensitive stakeholders. The system is comprised of bulk water option contracts between urban water suppliers and agricultural users and insurance indexed on reservoir inflows designed to cover the financial needs of the water supplier in situations where the option is likely to be exercised. Contract and insurance parameters are linked to forecasts and the evolution of seasonal precipitation and streamflow and designed for financial and political viability. A simulation of system performance is presented based on ongoing work in Metro Manila, Philippines. The

  8. Rapid forest change in the interior west presents analysis opportunities and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    John D. Shaw

    2007-01-01

    A recent drought has caused compositional and structural changes in Interior West forests. Recent periodic and annual inventory data provide an opportunity to analyze forest changes on a grand scale. This "natural experiment" also provides opportunities to test the effectiveness of Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) methodologies. It also presents some...

  9. Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2012-12-01

    Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.

  10. VECTORS of change in the marine environment: Ecosystem and economic impacts and management implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austen, M. C.; Crowe, T. P.; Elliott, M.; Paterson, D. M.; Peck, M. A.; Piraino, S.

    2018-02-01

    Human use of the European marine environment is increasing and diversifying. This is creating new mechanisms for human induced-changes in marine life which need to be understood and quantified as well as the impact of these changes on ecosystems, their structures (e.g. biodiversity) and functioning (e.g. productivity), and the social and economic consequences that arise. The current and emerging pressures are multiple and interacting, arising, for example, from transport, platforms for renewable and non-renewable energy, exploitation of living and non-living resources, agricultural and industrial discharges, together with wider environmental changes (including climate change). Anticipating the future consequences of these pressures and vectors of change for marine life and of adaptation and mitigation measures (such as the introduction of new technologies and structures, new ballast water practices, ocean and offshore wind energy devices and new fishing strategies) is a prerequisite to the development and implementation of strategies, policies and regulations to manage the marine environment, such as the IMO Convention on ballast water management and the EU Maritime Policy and Marine Strategy Framework Directive.

  11. A rapid infusion protocol is safe for total dose iron polymaltose: time for change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garg, M; Morrison, G; Friedman, A; Lau, A; Lau, D; Gibson, P R

    2011-07-01

    Intravenous correction of iron deficiency by total dose iron polymaltose is inexpensive and safe, but current protocols entail prolonged administration over more than 4 h. This results in reduced patient acceptance, and hospital resource strain. We aimed to assess prospectively the safety of a rapid intravenous protocol and compare this with historical controls. Consecutive patients in whom intravenous iron replacement was indicated were invited to have up to 1.5 g iron polymaltose by a 58-min infusion protocol after an initial 15-min test dose without pre-medication. Infusion-related adverse events (AE) and delayed AE over the ensuing 5 days were also prospectively documented and graded as mild, moderate or severe. One hundred patients, 63 female, mean age 54 (range 18-85) years were studied. Thirty-four infusion-related AE to iron polymaltose occurred in a total of 24 patients--25 mild, 8 moderate and 1 severe; higher than previously reported for a slow protocol iron infusion. Thirty-one delayed AE occurred in 26 patients--26 mild, 3 moderate and 2 severe; similar to previously reported. All but five patients reported they would prefer iron replacement through the rapid protocol again. The presence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) predicted infusion-related reactions (54% vs 14% without IBD, P cost, resource utilization and time benefits for the patient and hospital system. © 2011 The Authors. Internal Medicine Journal © 2011 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

  12. THE SOCIAL-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF THE CLIMATE CHANGES IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe ZAMAN

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available The social-economic implication of climatic changes in Romania are analysed under the following viewpoints: causes and effects; prevention and abatement; adjustment; institutional aspects of environmental management. The main reason of climatic changes is generated by the greenhouse effect (GE that determines the heating of the terrestrial surface, melt-down of icebergs, tornados, draughts and flooding more frequently and of increasing intensity. These extreme meteorological phenomena determine, over time, increasing human and material losses, which imposes measures with effects on short-, medium- and long-term for diminishing the greenhouse effect in accordance with the commitments and provisions of the Kyoto Protocol and the requirements for the sustainable development of the country. Proposals are made with respect to integrating environmental issues into economic and social development strategies, emphasising the need for increasing environment financing and attaching more importance to the Ministry of Environment which must couple its policy with the acquis communautaire and the EU programme for combating and preventing GE impact.

  13. Energy and economic analysis of a building enclosure outfitted with a phase change material board (PCMB)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Xiaoqin; Zhang, Quan; Medina, Mario A.; Lee, Kyoung Ok

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Phase change material boards (PCMBs) were simulated in building enclosures. • Energy and economic savings for these buildings were estimated. • The buildings were located in five cities with different climatic conditions. • The energy savings ratio was 100% when a cold energy source was used. • A mean electricity savings ratio of 13.1% was obtained. - Abstract: This paper presents energy and economic analyses related to the application of phase change materials boards (PCMBs) in building enclosures during the cooling season. A heat transfer model was developed, which was implemented via a computer program. Simulations were carried out using weather data files from five cities located in five different climate regions in China. Energy savings from using a natural cold source (e.g., outdoor air) and electricity savings from a reduction in electricity by air conditioning systems were evaluated. The energy savings ratio (ESR) and simple payback period (SPP) were used to assess the application of PCMBs in building enclosures. The selection of optimum phase transition temperatures for the PCMs for the various climates was made using indoor and outdoor air temperatures, as well as SPP. For space cooling purposes, it was suggested that phase transition temperatures should be at least 3 °C higher than the mean outdoor air temperature. Simple payback period suggested the possibility of the cost effective use of PCMBs in occupied buildings for moderate temperature climates

  14. In Preparation or Response: Examining Health Care Coalitions Amid a Changing Economic and Political Landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dornauer, Mark E

    2015-12-01

    The Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response within the US Department of Health and Human Services leads the nation in preparing for, responding to, and recovering from the adverse health effects of public health emergencies, in part through formal collaborations between hospitals, health systems, community health centers, public health departments, and community organizations via health care coalitions (HCCs). HCCs endeavor to meet the medical surge demands inherent to disasters and to improve health outcomes before, during, and after public health emergencies. Nevertheless, significant changes in health economics and policy can impact the operations, capabilities, and scope of HCCs. Specifically, hospital consolidation and the Affordable Care Act (ACA) are altering the national health care landscape, as well as the emergency preparedness sector, and are challenging HCCs to adapt to large-scale, industry-wide transformations. This article examines HCCs in the context of the developments of hospital consolidation and the ACA in order to facilitate future discourse regarding the strategy and policy of HCCs amid a changing economic and political landscape.

  15. Change or continuity: an interpretation of the economic politics of Lula’s government

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André MOREIRA CUNHA

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In the first year of government, the administration of Lula implanted a macroeconomic politics characterized by a strong fiscal and monetary restriction and for structural reformations (tributary and of the Social Security before criticized by the Party of the Workers and for its bases of social support in the last two decades. Keeping in mind these facts and the international expectation generated by the election of a government of left in Brazil in front of the crisis of the neoliberal pattern in Latin America, this article has for objective to analyses: (i the economic circumstances of the government’s principle Lula that conditioned the adoption of a transition strategy; (ii the results of this strategy; and (iii the aspects of continuity and change in the new government. Empiric evidences that sustain that the margin of manoeuvre of the new administration was sensibly narrow as to promote deep changes in the economic politics’s conduction, are presented. However, to part of those restrictions, inherited of the deregulated adjustment of the nineties, the government of Lula opted for the adoption of a group of politicians that will be able to generate a new trap of low growth with macroeconomic uncertainty, in the terms of that experienced in last decade.

  16. Rapid transformation of two libraries using Kotter's Eight Steps of Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Terrie R; Holmes, Kristi L

    2017-07-01

    Two new directors were each charged by their institutions to catalyze transformational change in their libraries and to develop dynamic and evolving information ecosystems ready for the information challenges of the future. The directors approached this transformational change using a strategic, forward-looking approach. This paper presents examples of actions that served as catalysts for change at the two libraries using Kotter's Eight Steps of Change as a framework. Small and large changes are critical for successfully transforming library services, resources, and personnel. Libraries are faced with incredible pressure to adapt to meet emerging and intensifying information needs on today's academic medical campuses. These pressures offer an opportunity for libraries to accelerate their evolution at the micro and macro levels. This commentary reports the expansion of new services and areas of support, enhancement of professional visibility of the libraries on their campuses, and overall, a more positive and productive environment at the respective institutions.

  17. Systemic range shift lags among a pollinator species assemblage following rapid climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bedford, Felicity E.; Whittaker, Robert J.; Kerr, Jeremy T.

    2012-01-01

    Contemporary climate change is driving widespread geographical range shifts among many species. If species are tracking changing climate successfully, then leading populations should experience similar climatic conditions through time as new populations establish beyond historical range margins....... Here, we investigate geographical range shifts relative to changing climatic conditions among a particularly well-sampled assemblage of butterflies in Canada. We assembled observations of 81 species and measured their latitudinal displacement between two periods: 1960–1975 (a period of little climate...... change) and 1990–2005 (a period with large climate change). We find an unexpected trend for species’ northern borders to shift progressively less relative to increasing minimum winter temperatures in northern Canada. This study demonstrates a novel, systemic latitudinal gradient in lags among a large...

  18. RAPID PENUMBRA AND LORENTZ FORCE CHANGES IN AN X1.0 SOLAR FLARE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Zhe; Jiang, Yunchun; Yang, Jiayang; Yang, Bo; Bi, Yi

    2016-01-01

    We present observations of the violent changes in photospheric magnetic structures associated with an X1.1 flare, which occurred in a compact δ-configuration region in the following part of AR 11890 on 2013 November 8. In both central and peripheral penumbra regions of the small δ sunspot, these changes took place abruptly and permanently in the reverse direction during the flare: the inner/outer penumbra darkened/disappeared, where the magnetic fields became more horizontal/vertical. Particularly, the Lorentz force (LF) changes in the central/peripheral region had a downward/upward and inward direction, meaning that the local pressure from the upper atmosphere was enhanced/released. It indicates that the LF changes might be responsible for the penumbra changes. These observations can be well explained as the photospheric response to the coronal field reconstruction within the framework of the magnetic implosion theory and the back reaction model of flares

  19. The economics of climate change the stern report one year on

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godard, O.

    2007-01-01

    In this article Olivier Godard, a specialist in environmental issues, looks back at the Stern Report on the economics of climate change, which was commissioned by the British government and published at the fall 2006. Having first recalled the general background to the report with regard to global warming and the lively debate that it generated, Godard sets it in perspective. He starts by describing the overall methodology and the main ideas in the Stern Report: a strong warning (that-without swift and decisive action to deal with the problem, the growth in human activities will cause serious, large-scale upheavals in this century and the next) coupled with an optimistic view (that nothing is inevitable provided that action is indeed swift, decisive and properly co-ordinated internationally, and the cost is relatively moderate). He puts figures to an evaluation of the damage to the environment suggested in various scenarios for the period up to 2200, as well as calculations showing that the feared climate change catastrophe is not unavoidable. He summarizes the policy recommendations offered in the Stern Report, emphasizing in passing that even the toughest policies cannot overcome all the problems. Godard goes on to discuss the key issue in the controversy that divides economists: what level to set the discount rate. He first describes the way this rate is calculated and then shows how the choices involved reflect above all the ethical trade-off with regard to the treatment of future generations and how the hypotheses underlying the economic evaluations of the impacts of climate change are far from being as scientifically objective as they claim to be. The Stern Report, he concludes, will at least have had the merit of bringing greater transparency in this regard and, despite certain limitations, it will have demonstrated the urgent need for co-ordinated action at global level to tackle climate change. (author)

  20. Growth-based Theories for Declining Regions? A Note on Conceptualisations of Demographic Change for Regional Economic Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anke Matuschewski

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to critically assess the economic growth paradigm, which typically underlies most approaches to regional policymaking for demographic change. While population losses, ageing and outmigration – i.e. phenomena that are addressed as demographic change – have become a matter of urgency for many European regions, most regional economic development theories remain silent about the population decline affecting the economic growth and development prospects of regions. Consequently, regional policies usually rely on the concept of economic growth, yet neglect the complexity and importance of demographic change and how it relates to the economic sphere. Due to this lack in nuance, we argue that regional policymaking fails to design adequate policy support for regions facing persistent demographic change and economic stagnation or decline as a result. Based on these observations, the paper examines a selection of regional economic development theories in search for alternative concepts of growth and development in the context of demographic change. To this aim, globalisation peripheries are introduced as a fruitful conceptual point of reference and, in combination with endogenous regional development theories, discussed as an alternative approach for regional policymaking.