WorldWideScience

Sample records for rapid earthquake migration

  1. Seismogeodesy for rapid earthquake and tsunami characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Rapid estimation of earthquake magnitude and fault mechanism is critical for earthquake and tsunami warning systems. Traditionally, the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis has been based on seismic networks for estimating earthquake magnitude and slip, and tide gauges and deep-ocean buoys for direct measurement of tsunami waves. These methods are well developed for ocean basin-wide warnings but are not timely enough to protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure from the effects of local tsunamis, where waves may arrive within 15-30 minutes of earthquake onset time. Direct measurements of displacements by GPS networks at subduction zones allow for rapid magnitude and slip estimation in the near-source region, that are not affected by instrumental limitations and magnitude saturation experienced by local seismic networks. However, GPS displacements by themselves are too noisy for strict earthquake early warning (P-wave detection). Optimally combining high-rate GPS and seismic data (in particular, accelerometers that do not clip), referred to as seismogeodesy, provides a broadband instrument that does not clip in the near field, is impervious to magnitude saturation, and provides accurate real-time static and dynamic displacements and velocities in real time. Here we describe a NASA-funded effort to integrate GPS and seismogeodetic observations as part of NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii. It consists of a series of plug-in modules that allow for a hierarchy of rapid seismogeodetic products, including automatic P-wave picking, hypocenter estimation, S-wave prediction, magnitude scaling relationships based on P-wave amplitude (Pd) and peak ground displacement (PGD), finite-source CMT solutions and fault slip models as input for tsunami warnings and models. For the NOAA/NASA project, the modules are being integrated into an existing USGS Earthworm environment, currently limited to traditional seismic data. We are focused on a network of

  2. The 2010 Chile Earthquake: Rapid Assessments of Tsunami

    OpenAIRE

    Michelini, A.; Lauciani, V.; Selvaggi, G.; Lomax, A.

    2010-01-01

    After an earthquake underwater, rapid real-time assessment of earthquake parameters is important for emergency response related to infrastructure damage and, perhaps more exigently, for issuing warnings of the possibility of an impending tsunami. Since 2005, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) has worked on the rapid quantification of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential, especially for the Mediterranean area. This work includes quantification of earthquake size fr...

  3. Earthquake Clusters and Spatio-temporal Migration of earthquakes in Northeastern Tibetan Plateau: a Finite Element Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Y.; Luo, G.

    2017-12-01

    Seismicity in a region is usually characterized by earthquake clusters and earthquake migration along its major fault zones. However, we do not fully understand why and how earthquake clusters and spatio-temporal migration of earthquakes occur. The northeastern Tibetan Plateau is a good example for us to investigate these problems. In this study, we construct and use a three-dimensional viscoelastoplastic finite-element model to simulate earthquake cycles and spatio-temporal migration of earthquakes along major fault zones in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We calculate stress evolution and fault interactions, and explore effects of topographic loading and viscosity of middle-lower crust and upper mantle on model results. Model results show that earthquakes and fault interactions increase Coulomb stress on the neighboring faults or segments, accelerating the future earthquakes in this region. Thus, earthquakes occur sequentially in a short time, leading to regional earthquake clusters. Through long-term evolution, stresses on some seismogenic faults, which are far apart, may almost simultaneously reach the critical state of fault failure, probably also leading to regional earthquake clusters and earthquake migration. Based on our model synthetic seismic catalog and paleoseismic data, we analyze probability of earthquake migration between major faults in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We find that following the 1920 M 8.5 Haiyuan earthquake and the 1927 M 8.0 Gulang earthquake, the next big event (M≥7) in northeastern Tibetan Plateau would be most likely to occur on the Haiyuan fault.

  4. Analysis of the Rapid Chloride Migration test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spiesz, P.R.; Ballari, M.; Brouwers, H.J.H.; Ferreira, R. M.; Gulikers, J.; Andrade, C.

    2009-01-01

    In this study the Rapid Chloride Migration test (RCM) standardized as NT Build 492 and BAW-Merkblatt is reviewed. Since the traditional natural diffusion tests are laborious, time consuming and costly, they are not always preferred from a practical point of view. To overcome these disadvantages,

  5. Rapid Estimates of Rupture Extent for Large Earthquakes Using Aftershocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polet, J.; Thio, H. K.; Kremer, M.

    2009-12-01

    The spatial distribution of aftershocks is closely linked to the rupture extent of the mainshock that preceded them and a rapid analysis of aftershock patterns therefore has potential for use in near real-time estimates of earthquake impact. The correlation between aftershocks and slip distribution has frequently been used to estimate the fault dimensions of large historic earthquakes for which no, or insufficient, waveform data is available. With the advent of earthquake inversions that use seismic waveforms and geodetic data to constrain the slip distribution, the study of aftershocks has recently been largely focused on enhancing our understanding of the underlying mechanisms in a broader earthquake mechanics/dynamics framework. However, in a near real-time earthquake monitoring environment, in which aftershocks of large earthquakes are routinely detected and located, these data may also be effective in determining a fast estimate of the mainshock rupture area, which would aid in the rapid assessment of the impact of the earthquake. We have analyzed a considerable number of large recent earthquakes and their aftershock sequences and have developed an effective algorithm that determines the rupture extent of a mainshock from its aftershock distribution, in a fully automatic manner. The algorithm automatically removes outliers by spatial binning, and subsequently determines the best fitting “strike” of the rupture and its length by projecting the aftershock epicenters onto a set of lines that cross the mainshock epicenter with incremental azimuths. For strike-slip or large dip-slip events, for which the surface projection of the rupture is recti-linear, the calculated strike correlates well with the strike of the fault and the corresponding length, determined from the distribution of aftershocks projected onto the line, agrees well with the rupture length. In the case of a smaller dip-slip rupture with an aspect ratio closer to 1, the procedure gives a measure

  6. Cyclic migration of weak earthquakes between Lunigiana earthquake of October 10, 1995 and Reggio Emilia earthquake of October 15, 1996 (Northern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    di Giovambattista, R.; Tyupkin, Yu

    The cyclic migration of weak earthquakes (M 2.2) which occurred during the yearprior to the October 15, 1996 (M = 4.9) Reggio Emilia earthquake isdiscussed in this paper. The onset of this migration was associated with theoccurrence of the October 10, 1995 (M = 4.8) Lunigiana earthquakeabout 90 km southwest from the epicenter of the Reggio Emiliaearthquake. At least three series of earthquakes migrating from theepicentral area of the Lunigiana earthquake in the northeast direction wereobserved. The migration of earthquakes of the first series terminated at adistance of about 30 km from the epicenter of the Reggio Emiliaearthquake. The earthquake migration of the other two series halted atabout 10 km from the Reggio Emilia epicenter. The average rate ofearthquake migration was about 200-300 km/year, while the time ofrecurrence of the observed cycles varied from 68 to 178 days. Weakearthquakes migrated along the transversal fault zones and sometimesjumped from one fault to another. A correlation between the migratingearthquakes and tidal variations is analysed. We discuss the hypothesis thatthe analyzed area is in a state of stress approaching the limit of thelong-term durability of crustal rocks and that the observed cyclic migrationis a result of a combination of a more or less regular evolution of tectonicand tidal variations.

  7. Rapid estimation of the economic consequences of global earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, operational since mid 2007, rapidly estimates the most affected locations and the population exposure at different levels of shaking intensities. The PAGER system has significantly improved the way aid agencies determine the scale of response needed in the aftermath of an earthquake. For example, the PAGER exposure estimates provided reasonably accurate assessments of the scale and spatial extent of the damage and losses following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) in China, the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Mw 6.3) in Italy, the 2010 Haiti earthquake (Mw 7.0), and the 2010 Chile earthquake (Mw 8.8). Nevertheless, some engineering and seismological expertise is often required to digest PAGER's exposure estimate and turn it into estimated fatalities and economic losses. This has been the focus of PAGER's most recent development. With the new loss-estimation component of the PAGER system it is now possible to produce rapid estimation of expected fatalities for global earthquakes (Jaiswal and others, 2009). While an estimate of earthquake fatalities is a fundamental indicator of potential human consequences in developing countries (for example, Iran, Pakistan, Haiti, Peru, and many others), economic consequences often drive the responses in much of the developed world (for example, New Zealand, the United States, and Chile), where the improved structural behavior of seismically resistant buildings significantly reduces earthquake casualties. Rapid availability of estimates of both fatalities and economic losses can be a valuable resource. The total time needed to determine the actual scope of an earthquake disaster and to respond effectively varies from country to country. It can take days or sometimes weeks before the damage and consequences of a disaster can be understood both socially and economically. The objective of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system is

  8. Rapid earthquake magnitude determination for Vrancea early warning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marmureanu, Alexandru

    2009-01-01

    Due to the huge amount of recorded data, an automatic procedure was developed and used to test different methods to rapidly evaluate earthquake magnitude from the first seconds of the P wave. In order to test all the algorithms involved in detection and rapid earthquake magnitude estimation, several tests were performed, in order to avoid false alarms. A special detection algorithm was developed, that is based on the classical STA/LTA algorithm and tuned for early warning purpose. A method to rapidly estimate magnitude in 4 seconds from detection of P wave in the epicenter is proposed. The method was tested on al recorded data, and the magnitude error determination is acceptable taking into account that it is computed from only 3 stations in a very short time interval. (author)

  9. The key role of eyewitnesses in rapid earthquake impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, Rémy; Steed, Robert; Mazet-Roux, Gilles; Roussel, Frédéric; Etivant, Caroline

    2014-05-01

    Uncertainties in rapid earthquake impact models are intrinsically large even when excluding potential indirect losses (fires, landslides, tsunami…). The reason is that they are based on several factors which are themselves difficult to constrain, such as the geographical distribution of shaking intensity, building type inventory and vulnerability functions. The difficulties can be illustrated by two boundary cases. For moderate (around M6) earthquakes, the size of potential damage zone and the epicentral location uncertainty share comparable dimension of about 10-15km. When such an earthquake strikes close to an urban area, like in 1999, in Athens (M5.9), earthquake location uncertainties alone can lead to dramatically different impact scenario. Furthermore, for moderate magnitude, the overall impact is often controlled by individual accidents, like in 2002 in Molise, Italy (M5.7), in Bingol, Turkey (M6.4) in 2003 or in Christchurch, New Zealand (M6.3) where respectively 23 out of 30, 84 out of 176 and 115 out of 185 of the causalities perished in a single building failure. Contrastingly, for major earthquakes (M>7), the point source approximation is not valid anymore, and impact assessment requires knowing exactly where the seismic rupture took place, whether it was unilateral, bilateral etc.… and this information is not readily available directly after the earthquake's occurrence. In-situ observations of actual impact provided by eyewitnesses can dramatically reduce impact models uncertainties. We will present the overall strategy developed at the EMSC which comprises of crowdsourcing and flashsourcing techniques, the development of citizen operated seismic networks, and the use of social networks to engage with eyewitnesses within minutes of an earthquake occurrence. For instance, testimonies are collected through online questionnaires available in 32 languages and automatically processed in maps of effects. Geo-located pictures are collected and then

  10. Earthquakes, fluid pressures and rapid subduction zone metamorphism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viete, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    High-pressure/low-temperature (HP/LT) metamorphism is commonly incomplete, meaning that large tracts of rock can remain metastable at blueschist- and eclogite-facies conditions for timescales up to millions of years [1]. When HP/LT metamorphism does take place, it can occur over extremely short durations (the role of fluids in providing heat for metamorphism [2] or catalyzing metamorphic reactions [1]. Earthquakes in subduction zone settings can occur to depths of 100s of km. Metamorphic dehydration and the associated development of elevated pore pressures in HP/LT metamorphic rocks has been identified as a cause of earthquake activity at such great depths [3-4]. The process of fracturing/faulting significantly increases rock permeability, causing channelized fluid flow and dissipation of pore pressures [3-4]. Thus, deep subduction zone earthquakes are thought to reflect an evolution in fluid pressure, involving: (1) an initial increase in pore pressure by heating-related dehydration of subduction zone rocks, and (2) rapid relief of pore pressures by faulting and channelized flow. Models for earthquakes at depth in subduction zones have focussed on the in situ effects of dehydration and then sudden escape of fluids from the rock mass following fracturing [3-4]. On the other hand, existing models for rapid and incomplete metamorphism in subduction zones have focussed only on the effects of heating and/or hydration with the arrival of external fluids [1-2]. Significant changes in pressure over very short timescales should result in rapid mineral growth and/or disequilibrium texture development in response to overstepping of mineral reaction boundaries. The repeated process of dehydration-pore pressure development-earthquake-pore pressure relief could conceivably produce a record of episodic HP/LT metamorphism driven by rapid pressure pulses. A new hypothesis is presented for the origins of HP/LT metamorphism: that HP/LT metamorphism is driven by effective pressure

  11. Rapid acceleration leads to rapid weakening in earthquake-like laboratory experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Jefferson C.; Lockner, David A.; Reches, Z.

    2012-01-01

    After nucleation, a large earthquake propagates as an expanding rupture front along a fault. This front activates countless fault patches that slip by consuming energy stored in Earth’s crust. We simulated the slip of a fault patch by rapidly loading an experimental fault with energy stored in a spinning flywheel. The spontaneous evolution of strength, acceleration, and velocity indicates that our experiments are proxies of fault-patch behavior during earthquakes of moment magnitude (Mw) = 4 to 8. We show that seismically determined earthquake parameters (e.g., displacement, velocity, magnitude, or fracture energy) can be used to estimate the intensity of the energy release during an earthquake. Our experiments further indicate that high acceleration imposed by the earthquake’s rupture front quickens dynamic weakening by intense wear of the fault zone.

  12. Study on the chloride migration coefficient obtained following different Rapid Chloride Migration (RCM) test guidelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spiesz, P.R.; Brouwers, H.J.H.; Uzoegbo, H.C.; Schmidt, W.

    2013-01-01

    This work presents the differences in the available Rapid Chloride Migration (RCM) test guidelines, and their influence on the values of the chloride migration coefficients DRCM, obtained following these guidelines. It is shown that the differences between the guidelines are significant and concern

  13. The Statistical Analysis of Migration of Strong Earthquakes-Taking the North China Region as an Example

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qin Chengzhi; Zhou Chenghu; Pei Tao; Li Quanlin

    2004-01-01

    The migration of strong earthquakes is an important research topic because the migration phenomena reflect partly the seismic mechanism and involve the prediction of tendency of seismic activity. Research on migration of strong earthquakes has mostly focused on finding the phenomena. Some attempts on getting regularity were comparatively subjective. This paper suggests that there should be indices of migration in earthquake dataset and the indexes should have statistical meaning if there is regularity in the migration of strong earthquakes. In this study, three derivative attributes of migration, i.e., migration orientation, migration distance and migration time interval, were statistically analyzed. Results in the North China region show that the migration of strong earthquakes has statistical meaning. There is a dominant migration orientation (W by S to E by N), a dominant distance ( ≤ 100km and on the confines of 300 ~ 700km), and a dominant time interval ( ≤ 1 a and on the confines of 3 ~ 4a). The results also show that the migration will differ slightly with different magnitude range or earthquake activity phase.

  14. Anomalous migration of shallow groundwater and gases in the Beijing region and the 1976 Tangshan earthquake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shi, H. (Seismological Brigade of Beijing, China); Cai, Z.; Gao, M.

    1980-02-01

    The character and cause of blowing out of gases and emission of sound from dry wells and of water becoming muddy and changing of level in water wells of the Beijing region immediately before the 1976 Tangshan earthquake and its strong aftershocks are investigated. These phenomena, taken as possible precursors of the earthquakes as well as the motivating force, mechanism, geological background and material sources of the anomalous migration are discussed. Besides, the paper also deals with the relation between these anomalies and the Tangshan earthquake and the significance of the study of groundwater as far as earthquake prediction is concerned. No gaseous gushing from great depth in considerable quantities appeared so that migration should be regarded only as the migration of shallow groundwater and gases. This is referred to the consequence of the action on certain hydrogeological structures of an impulse-like extra tectonic stress field on the active faults in the Beijing region under a unified regional stress field. The present authors suppose that further studies of the anomalous migration of groundwater and gases possibly may be fruitful to earthquake prediction work.

  15. Anomalous migration of shallow groundwater and gases in the Beijing region and the 1976 Tangshan earthquake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shi, H.; Cai, Z.; Gao, M.

    1980-02-01

    The character and cause of blowing out of gases and emission of sound from dry wells and of water becoming muddy and changing of level in water wells of the Beijing region immediately before the 1976 Tangshan earthquake and its strong aftershocks are investigated. These phenomena, taken as possible precursors of the earthquakes as well as the motivating force, mechanism, geological background and material sources of the anomalous migration, are discussed. In addition, the paper also deals with the relation between these anomalies and the Tangshan earthquake and the significance of the study of groundwater as far as earthquake prediction is concerned. No gaseous gushing from great depth in considerable quantities appeared so that migration should be regarded only as the migration of shallow groundwater and gases. This is referred to as the consequence of the action on certain hydrogeological structures of an impulse-like extra tectonic stress field on the active faults in the Beijing region under a unified regional stress field. The present authors suppose that further studies of the anomalous migration of groundwater and gases possibly may be fruitful to earthquake prediction work.

  16. Underlying mechanism of precursory activity from analysis of upward earthquake migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. A. Molchanov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyse the upward earthquake hypocentral migration in the ten known subduction zones and discuss a possible mechanism of such migration. The total time of the migration appears to range from 2.5 to 10 years. It leads to the estimation of the average velocity Vz~ 60−300 km yr−1. It probably corresponds to the movement of the forcing agent like stress or deformation wave from depths of the upper mantle (600–700 km to the level of the lithosphere with subsequent initiation of fluid migration inside the crust to trigger shallow earthquakes. Averaged over all zones upward migration travel time is about 5 years (< Vz > ≈120 km yr−1 that coincides approximately with the period of characteristic temperature variation (El Nino and crustal seismic periodicity in the Pacific region. These findings are helpful for the study of the seismic precursors and analysis of earthquake triggering.

  17. Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER): A System for Rapidly Determining the Impact of Earthquakes Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, Paul S.; Wald, David J.; Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Allen, Trevor I.; Hearne, Michael G.; Marano, Kristin D.; Hotovec, Alicia J.; Fee, Jeremy

    2009-01-01

    Within minutes of a significant earthquake anywhere on the globe, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system assesses its potential societal impact. PAGER automatically estimates the number of people exposed to severe ground shaking and the shaking intensity at affected cities. Accompanying maps of the epicentral region show the population distribution and estimated ground-shaking intensity. A regionally specific comment describes the inferred vulnerability of the regional building inventory and, when available, lists recent nearby earthquakes and their effects. PAGER's results are posted on the USGS Earthquake Program Web site (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/), consolidated in a concise one-page report, and sent in near real-time to emergency responders, government agencies, and the media. Both rapid and accurate results are obtained through manual and automatic updates of PAGER's content in the hours following significant earthquakes. These updates incorporate the most recent estimates of earthquake location, magnitude, faulting geometry, and first-hand accounts of shaking. PAGER relies on a rich set of earthquake analysis and assessment tools operated by the USGS and contributing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks. A focused research effort is underway to extend PAGER's near real-time capabilities beyond population exposure to quantitative estimates of fatalities, injuries, and displaced population.

  18. A rapid stability assessment of China's IGS sites after the Ms7. 0 Lushan earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Jie

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available A rapid and accurate assessment of the stability of surveying and mapping reference points is important for post – disaster rescue, disaster relief and reconstruction activities. Using Precise Point Positioning (PPP technology, a rapid assessment of the stability of the IGS sites in China was performed after the Ms 7. 0 Lushan earthquake using rapid precise ephemeris and rapid precise satellite clock products. The results show that the earthquake had a very small impact and did not cause significant permanent deformation at the IGS sites. Most of the sites were unaffected and remained stable after the earthquake.

  19. Money matters: Rapid post-earthquake financial decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wald, David J.; Franco, Guillermo

    2016-01-01

    Post-earthquake financial decision-making is a realm beyond that of many people. In the immediate aftermath of a damaging earthquake, billions of dollars of relief, recovery, and insurance funds are in the balance through new financial instruments that allow those with resources to hedge against disasters and those at risk to limit their earthquake losses and receive funds for response and recovery.

  20. Rapid earthquake characterization using MEMS accelerometers and volunteer hosts following the M 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, J. F.; Cochran, E.S.; Chung, A.; Kaiser, A.; Christensen, C. M.; Allen, R.; Baker, J.W.; Fry, B.; Heaton, T.; Kilb, Debi; Kohler, M.D.; Taufer, M.

    2014-01-01

    We test the feasibility of rapidly detecting and characterizing earthquakes with the Quake‐Catcher Network (QCN) that connects low‐cost microelectromechanical systems accelerometers to a network of volunteer‐owned, Internet‐connected computers. Following the 3 September 2010 M 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, earthquake we installed over 180 QCN sensors in the Christchurch region to record the aftershock sequence. The sensors are monitored continuously by the host computer and send trigger reports to the central server. The central server correlates incoming triggers to detect when an earthquake has occurred. The location and magnitude are then rapidly estimated from a minimal set of received ground‐motion parameters. Full seismic time series are typically not retrieved for tens of minutes or even hours after an event. We benchmark the QCN real‐time detection performance against the GNS Science GeoNet earthquake catalog. Under normal network operations, QCN detects and characterizes earthquakes within 9.1 s of the earthquake rupture and determines the magnitude within 1 magnitude unit of that reported in the GNS catalog for 90% of the detections.

  1. Rapid acceleration leads to rapid weakening in earthquake-like laboratory experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, J. C.; Lockner, D. A.; Reches, Z.

    2012-12-01

    We simulated the slip of a fault-patch during a large earthquake by rapidly loading an experimental, ring-shaped fault with energy stored in a spinning flywheel. The flywheel abruptly delivers a finite amount of energy by spinning the fault-patch that spontaneously dissipates the energy without operator intervention. We conducted 42 experiments on Sierra White granite (SWG) samples, and 24 experiments on Kasota dolomite (KD) samples. Each experiment starts by spinning a 225 kg disk-shaped flywheel to a prescribed angular velocity. We refer to this experiment as an "earthquake-like slip-event" (ELSE). The strength-evolution in ELSE experiments is similar to the strength-evolution proposed for earthquake models and observed in stick-slip experiments. Further, we found that ELSE experiments are similar to earthquakes in at least three ways: (1) slip driven by the release of a finite amount of stored energy; (2) pattern of fault strength evolution; and (3) seismically observed values, such as average slip, peak-velocity and rise-time. By assuming that the measured slip, D, in ELSE experiments is equivalent to the average slip during an earthquake, we found that ELSE experiments (D = 0.003-4.6 m) correspond to earthquakes in moment-magnitude range of Mw = 4-8. In ELSE experiments, the critical-slip-distance, dc, has mean values of 2.7 cm and 1.2 cm for SWG and KD, that are much shorter than the 1-10 m in steady-state classical experiments in rotary shear systems. We attribute these dc values, to ELSE loading in which the fault-patch is abruptly loaded by impact with a spinning flywheel. Under this loading, the friction-velocity relations are strikingly different from those under steady-state loading on the same rock samples with the same shear system (Reches and Lockner, Nature, 2010). We further note that the slip acceleration in ELSE evolves systematically with fault strength and wear-rate, and that the dynamic weakening is restricted to the period of intense

  2. Sendai-Okura earthquake swarm induced by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in the stress shadow of NE Japan: Detailed fault structure and hypocenter migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshida, Keisuke; Hasegawa, Akira

    2018-05-01

    We investigated the distribution and migration of hypocenters of an earthquake swarm that occurred in Sendai-Okura (NE Japan) 15 days after the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, despite the decrease in shear stress due to the static stress change. Hypocenters of 2476 events listed in the JMA catalogue were relocated based on the JMA unified catalogue data in conjunction with data obtained by waveform cross correlation. Hypocenter relocation was successful in delineating several thin planar structures, although the original hypocenters presented a cloud-like distribution. The hypocenters of this swarm event migrated along several planes from deeper to shallower levels rather than diffusing three-dimensionally. One of the nodal planes of the focal mechanisms was nearly parallel to the planar structure of the hypocenters, supporting the idea that each earthquake occurred by causing slip on parts of the same plane. The overall migration velocity of the hypocenters could be explained by the fluid diffusion model with a typical value of hydraulic diffusivity (0.15 m2/s); however, the occurrence of some burst-like activity with much higher migration velocity suggests the possibility that aseismic slip also contributed to triggering the earthquakes. We suggest that the 2011 Sendai-Okura earthquake swarm was generated as follows. (1) The 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake caused WNW-ESE extension in the focal region of the swarm, which accordingly reduced shear stress on the fault planes. However, the WNW-ESE extension allowed fluids to move upward from the S-wave reflectors in the mid-crust immediately beneath the focal region. (2) The fluids rising from the mid-crust intruded into several existing planes, which reduced their frictional strengths and caused the observed earthquake swarm. (3) The fluids, and accordingly, the hypocenters of the triggered earthquakes, migrated upward along the fault planes. It is possible that the fluids also triggered aseismic slip, which caused

  3. Migrating pattern of deformation prior to the Tohoku-Oki earthquake revealed by GRACE data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panet, Isabelle; Bonvalot, Sylvain; Narteau, Clément; Remy, Dominique; Lemoine, Jean-Michel

    2018-05-01

    Understanding how and when far-field continuous motions lead to giant subduction earthquakes remains a challenge. An important limitation comes from an incomplete description of aseismic mass fluxes at depth along plate boundaries. Here we analyse Earth's gravity field variations derived from GRACE satellite data in a wide space-time domain surrounding the Mw 9.0 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. We show that this earthquake is the extreme expression of initially silent deformation migrating from depth to the surface across the entire subduction system. Our analysis indeed reveals large-scale gravity and mass changes throughout three tectonic plates and connected slabs, starting a few months before March 2011. Before the Tohoku-Oki earthquake rupture, the gravity variations can be explained by aseismic extension of the Pacific plate slab at mid-upper mantle depth, concomitant with increasing seismicity in the shallower slab. For more than two years after the rupture, the deformation propagated far into the Pacific and Philippine Sea plate interiors, suggesting that subduction accelerated along 2,000 km of the plate boundaries in March 2011. This gravitational image of the earthquake's long-term dynamics provides unique information on deep and crustal processes over intermediate timescales, which could be used in seismic hazard assessment.

  4. Rapid estimation of the moment magnitude of large earthquake from static strain changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itaba, S.

    2014-12-01

    The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake, of moment magnitude (Mw) 9.0, occurred on March 11, 2011. Based on the seismic wave, the prompt report of the magnitude which the Japan Meteorological Agency announced just after earthquake occurrence was 7.9, and it was considerably smaller than an actual value. On the other hand, using nine borehole strainmeters of Geological Survey of Japan, AIST, we estimated a fault model with Mw 8.7 for the earthquake on the boundary between the Pacific and North American plates. This model can be estimated about seven minutes after the origin time, and five minute after wave arrival. In order to grasp the magnitude of a great earthquake earlier, several methods are now being suggested to reduce the earthquake disasters including tsunami (e.g., Ohta et al., 2012). Our simple method of using strain steps is one of the strong methods for rapid estimation of the magnitude of great earthquakes.

  5. The Technical Efficiency of Earthquake Medical Rapid Response Teams Following Disasters: The Case of the 2010 Yushu Earthquake in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xu; Tang, Bihan; Yang, Hongyang; Liu, Yuan; Xue, Chen; Zhang, Lulu

    2015-12-04

    Performance assessments of earthquake medical rapid response teams (EMRRTs), particularly the first responders deployed to the hardest hit areas following major earthquakes, should consider efficient and effective use of resources. This study assesses the daily technical efficiency of EMRRTs in the emergency period immediately following the 2010 Yushu earthquake in China. Data on EMRRTs were obtained from official daily reports of the general headquarters for Yushu earthquake relief, the emergency office of the National Ministry of Health, and the Health Department of Qinghai Province, for a sample of data on 15 EMRRTs over 62 days. Data envelopment analysis was used to examine the technical efficiency in a constant returns to scale model, a variable returns to scale model, and the scale efficiency of EMRRTs. Tobit regression was applied to analyze the effects of corresponding influencing factors. The average technical efficiency scores under constant returns to scale, variable returns to scale, and the scale efficiency scores of the 62 units of analysis were 77.95%, 89.00%, and 87.47%, respectively. The staff-to-bed ratio was significantly related to global technical efficiency. The date of rescue was significantly related to pure technical efficiency. The type of institution to which an EMRRT belonged and the staff-to-bed ratio were significantly related to scale efficiency. This study provides evidence that supports improvements to EMRRT efficiency and serves as a reference for earthquake emergency medical rapid assistance leaders and teams.

  6. The Technical Efficiency of Earthquake Medical Rapid Response Teams Following Disasters: The Case of the 2010 Yushu Earthquake in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Liu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Performance assessments of earthquake medical rapid response teams (EMRRTs, particularly the first responders deployed to the hardest hit areas following major earthquakes, should consider efficient and effective use of resources. This study assesses the daily technical efficiency of EMRRTs in the emergency period immediately following the 2010 Yushu earthquake in China. Methods: Data on EMRRTs were obtained from official daily reports of the general headquarters for Yushu earthquake relief, the emergency office of the National Ministry of Health, and the Health Department of Qinghai Province, for a sample of data on 15 EMRRTs over 62 days. Data envelopment analysis was used to examine the technical efficiency in a constant returns to scale model, a variable returns to scale model, and the scale efficiency of EMRRTs. Tobit regression was applied to analyze the effects of corresponding influencing factors. Results: The average technical efficiency scores under constant returns to scale, variable returns to scale, and the scale efficiency scores of the 62 units of analysis were 77.95%, 89.00%, and 87.47%, respectively. The staff-to-bed ratio was significantly related to global technical efficiency. The date of rescue was significantly related to pure technical efficiency. The type of institution to which an EMRRT belonged and the staff-to-bed ratio were significantly related to scale efficiency. Conclusions: This study provides evidence that supports improvements to EMRRT efficiency and serves as a reference for earthquake emergency medical rapid assistance leaders and teams.

  7. Real-time earthquake monitoring: Early warning and rapid response

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    A panel was established to investigate the subject of real-time earthquake monitoring (RTEM) and suggest recommendations on the feasibility of using a real-time earthquake warning system to mitigate earthquake damage in regions of the United States. The findings of the investigation and the related recommendations are described in this report. A brief review of existing real-time seismic systems is presented with particular emphasis given to the current California seismic networks. Specific applications of a real-time monitoring system are discussed along with issues related to system deployment and technical feasibility. In addition, several non-technical considerations are addressed including cost-benefit analysis, public perceptions, safety, and liability.

  8. Global earthquake casualties due to secondary effects: A quantitative analysis for improving rapid loss analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marano, K.D.; Wald, D.J.; Allen, T.I.

    2010-01-01

    This study presents a quantitative and geospatial description of global losses due to earthquake-induced secondary effects, including landslide, liquefaction, tsunami, and fire for events during the past 40 years. These processes are of great importance to the US Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which is currently being developed to deliver rapid earthquake impact and loss assessments following large/significant global earthquakes. An important question is how dominant are losses due to secondary effects (and under what conditions, and in which regions)? Thus, which of these effects should receive higher priority research efforts in order to enhance PAGER's overall assessment of earthquakes losses and alerting for the likelihood of secondary impacts? We find that while 21.5% of fatal earthquakes have deaths due to secondary (non-shaking) causes, only rarely are secondary effects the main cause of fatalities. The recent 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake is a notable exception, with extraordinary losses due to tsunami. The potential for secondary hazards varies greatly, and systematically, due to regional geologic and geomorphic conditions. Based on our findings, we have built country-specific disclaimers for PAGER that address potential for each hazard (Earle et al., Proceedings of the 14th World Conference of the Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China, 2008). We will now focus on ways to model casualties from secondary effects based on their relative importance as well as their general predictability. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

  9. The Key Role of Eyewitnesses in Rapid Impact Assessment of Global Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Steed, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.; Etivant, C.; Frobert, L.; Godey, S.

    2014-12-01

    Uncertainties in rapid impact assessments of global earthquakes are intrinsically large because they rely on 3 main elements (ground motion prediction models, building stock inventory and related vulnerability) which values and/or spatial variations are poorly constrained. Furthermore, variations of hypocentral location and magnitude within their respective uncertainty domain can lead to significantly different shaking level for centers of population and change the scope of the disaster. We present the strategy and methods implemented at the Euro-Med Seismological Centre (EMSC) to rapidly collect in-situ observations on earthquake effects from eyewitnesses for reducing uncertainties of rapid earthquake impact assessment. It comprises crowdsourced information (online questionnaires, pics) as well as information derived from real time analysis of web traffic (flashourcing technique), and more recently deployment of QCN (Quake Catcher Network) low cost sensors. We underline the importance of merging results of different methods to improve performances and reliability of collected data.We try to better understand and respond to public demands and expectations after earthquakes through improved information services and diversification of information tools (social networks, smartphone app., browsers adds-on…), which, in turn, drive more eyewitnesses to our services and improve data collection. We will notably present our LastQuake Twitter feed (Quakebot) and smartphone applications (IOs and android) which only report earthquakes that matter for the public and authorities, i.e. felt and damaging earthquakes identified thanks to citizen generated information.

  10. Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

  11. Rapid Large Earthquake and Run-up Characterization in Quasi Real Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravo, F. J.; Riquelme, S.; Koch, P.; Cararo, S.

    2017-12-01

    Several test in quasi real time have been conducted by the rapid response group at CSN (National Seismological Center) to characterize earthquakes in Real Time. These methods are known for its robustness and realibility to create Finite Fault Models. The W-phase FFM Inversion, The Wavelet Domain FFM and The Body Wave and FFM have been implemented in real time at CSN, all these algorithms are running automatically and triggered by the W-phase Point Source Inversion. Dimensions (Large and Width ) are predefined by adopting scaling laws for earthquakes in subduction zones. We tested the last four major earthquakes occurred in Chile using this scheme: The 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule Earthquake, The 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique Earthquake, The 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel Earthquake and The 7.6 Melinka Earthquake. We obtain many solutions as time elapses, for each one of those we calculate the run-up using an analytical formula. Our results are in agreements with some FFM already accepted by the sicentific comunnity aswell as run-up observations in the field.

  12. How citizen seismology is transforming rapid public earthquake information and interactions between seismologists and society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, Rémy; Steed, Robert; Mazet-Roux, Gilles; Roussel, Fréderic; Caroline, Etivant

    2015-04-01

    Historical earthquakes are only known to us through written recollections and so seismologists have a long experience of interpreting the reports of eyewitnesses, explaining probably why seismology has been a pioneer in crowdsourcing and citizen science. Today, Internet has been transforming this situation; It can be considered as the digital nervous system comprising of digital veins and intertwined sensors that capture the pulse of our planet in near real-time. How can both seismology and public could benefit from this new monitoring system? This paper will present the strategy implemented at Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) to leverage this new nervous system to detect and diagnose the impact of earthquakes within minutes rather than hours and how it transformed information systems and interactions with the public. We will show how social network monitoring and flashcrowds (massive website traffic increases on EMSC website) are used to automatically detect felt earthquakes before seismic detections, how damaged areas can me mapped through concomitant loss of Internet sessions (visitors being disconnected) and the benefit of collecting felt reports and geolocated pictures to further constrain rapid impact assessment of global earthquakes. We will also describe how public expectations within tens of seconds of ground shaking are at the basis of improved diversified information tools which integrate this user generated contents. A special attention will be given to LastQuake, the most complex and sophisticated Twitter QuakeBot, smartphone application and browser add-on, which deals with the only earthquakes that matter for the public: the felt and damaging earthquakes. In conclusion we will demonstrate that eyewitnesses are today real time earthquake sensors and active actors of rapid earthquake information.

  13. Flash-sourcing or the rapid detection and characterisation of earthquake effects through clickstream data analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.; Frobert, L.

    2011-12-01

    Rapid characterisation of earthquake effects is essential for a timely and appropriate response in favour of victims and/or of eyewitnesses. In case of damaging earthquakes, any field observations that can fill the information gap characterising their immediate aftermath can contribute to more efficient rescue operations. This paper presents the last developments of a method called "flash-sourcing" addressing these issues. It relies on eyewitnesses, the first informed and the first concerned by an earthquake occurrence. More precisely, their use of the EMSC earthquake information website (www.emsc-csem.org) is analysed in real time to map the area where the earthquake was felt and identify, at least under certain circumstances zones of widespread damage. The approach is based on the natural and immediate convergence of eyewitnesses on the website who rush to the Internet to investigate cause of the shaking they just felt causing our traffic to increase The area where an earthquake was felt is mapped simply by locating Internet Protocol (IP) addresses during traffic surges. In addition, the presence of eyewitnesses browsing our website within minutes of an earthquake occurrence excludes the possibility of widespread damage in the localities they originate from: in case of severe damage, the networks would be down. The validity of the information derived from this clickstream analysis is confirmed by comparisons with EMS98 macroseismic map obtained from online questionnaires. The name of this approach, "flash-sourcing", is a combination of "flash-crowd" and "crowdsourcing" intending to reflect the rapidity of the data collation from the public. For computer scientists, a flash-crowd names a traffic surge on a website. Crowdsourcing means work being done by a "crowd" of people; It also characterises Internet and mobile applications collecting information from the public such as online macroseismic questionnaires. Like crowdsourcing techniques, flash-sourcing is a

  14. Temporal Changes in Stress Drop, Frictional Strength, and Earthquake Size Distribution in the 2011 Yamagata-Fukushima, NE Japan, Earthquake Swarm, Caused by Fluid Migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshida, Keisuke; Saito, Tatsuhiko; Urata, Yumi; Asano, Youichi; Hasegawa, Akira

    2017-12-01

    In this study, we investigated temporal variations in stress drop and b-value in the earthquake swarm that occurred at the Yamagata-Fukushima border, NE Japan, after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. In this swarm, frictional strengths were estimated to have changed with time due to fluid diffusion. We first estimated the source spectra for 1,800 earthquakes with 2.0 ≤ MJMA < 3.0, by correcting the site-amplification and attenuation effects determined using both S waves and coda waves. We then determined corner frequency assuming the omega-square model and estimated stress drop for 1,693 earthquakes. We found that the estimated stress drops tended to have values of 1-4 MPa and that stress drops significantly changed with time. In particular, the estimated stress drops were very small at the beginning, and increased with time for 50 days. Similar temporal changes were obtained for b-value; the b-value was very high (b 2) at the beginning, and decreased with time, becoming approximately constant (b 1) after 50 days. Patterns of temporal changes in stress drop and b-value were similar to the patterns for frictional strength and earthquake occurrence rate, suggesting that the change in frictional strength due to migrating fluid not only triggered the swarm activity but also affected earthquake and seismicity characteristics. The estimated high Q-1 value, as well as the hypocenter migration, supports the presence of fluid, and its role in the generation and physical characteristics of the swarm.

  15. Conceptualizing ¬the Abstractions of Earthquakes Through an Instructional Sequence Using SeisMac and the Rapid Earthquake Viewer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taber, J.; Hubenthal, M.; Wysession, M.

    2007-12-01

    Newsworthy earthquakes provide an engaging hook for students in Earth science classes, particularly when discussing their effects on people and the landscape. However, engaging students in an analysis of earthquakes that extends beyond death and damage, is frequently hampered by the abstraction of recorded ground motion data in the form of raw seismograms and the inability of most students to personally relate to ground accelerations. To overcome these challenges, an educational sequence has been developed using two software tools: SeisMac by Daniel Griscom, and the Rapid Earthquake Viewer (REV) developed by the University of South Carolina in collaboration with IRIS and DLESE. This sequence presents a unique opportunity for Earth Science teachers to "create" foundational experiences for students as they construction a framework of understanding of abstract concepts. The first activity is designed to introduce the concept of a three-component seismogram and to directly address the very abstract nature of seismograms through a kinesthetic experience. Students first learn to take the pulse of their classroom through a guided exploration of SeisMac, which displays the output of the laptop's built-in Sudden Motion Sensor (a 3-component accelerometer). This exploration allows students to view a 3-component seismogram as they move or tap the laptop and encourages them to propose and carry out experiments to explain the meaning of the 3-component seismogram. Once completed students are then asked to apply this new knowledge to a real 3-component seismogram printed from REV. Next the activity guides students through the process of identifying P and S waves and using SeisMac to connect the physical motion of the laptop to the "wiggles" they see on the SeisMac display and then comparing those to the "wiggles" they see on their seismogram. At this point students are more fully prepared to engage in an S-P location exercise such as those included in many state standards

  16. Recent applications for rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses with ELER Software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demircioglu, M.B.; Erdik, M.; Kamer, Y.; Sesetyan, K.; Tuzun, C.

    2012-01-01

    A methodology and software package entitled Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine (ELER) was developed for rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses throughout the Euro-Mediterranean region. The work was carried out under the Joint Research Activity-3 (JRA3) of the EC FP6 project entitled Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology (NERIES). The ELER methodology anticipates: 1) finding of the most likely location of the source of the earthquake using regional seismo-tectonic data base; 2) estimation of the spatial distribution of selected ground motion parameters at engineering bedrock through region specific ground motion prediction models, bias-correcting the ground motion estimations with strong ground motion data, if available; 3) estimation of the spatial distribution of site-corrected ground motion parameters using regional geology database using appropriate amplification models; and 4) estimation of the losses and uncertainties at various orders of sophistication (buildings, casualties). The multi-level methodology developed for real time estimation of losses is capable of incorporating regional variability and sources of uncertainty stemming from ground motion predictions, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships which are coded into ELER. The present paper provides brief information on the methodology of ELER and provides an example application with the recent major earthquake that hit the Van province in the east of Turkey on 23 October 2011 with moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.2. For this earthquake, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) provided almost real time estimations in terms of building damage and casualty distribution using ELER. (author)

  17. Automated Tracking of Cell Migration with Rapid Data Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DuChez, Brian J

    2017-09-01

    Cell migration is essential for many biological processes including development, wound healing, and metastasis. However, studying cell migration often requires the time-consuming and labor-intensive task of manually tracking cells. To accelerate the task of obtaining coordinate positions of migrating cells, we have developed a graphical user interface (GUI) capable of automating the tracking of fluorescently labeled nuclei. This GUI provides an intuitive user interface that makes automated tracking accessible to researchers with no image-processing experience or familiarity with particle-tracking approaches. Using this GUI, users can interactively determine a minimum of four parameters to identify fluorescently labeled cells and automate acquisition of cell trajectories. Additional features allow for batch processing of numerous time-lapse images, curation of unwanted tracks, and subsequent statistical analysis of tracked cells. Statistical outputs allow users to evaluate migratory phenotypes, including cell speed, distance, displacement, and persistence, as well as measures of directional movement, such as forward migration index (FMI) and angular displacement. © 2017 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

  18. Influence of the applied voltage on the Rapid Chloride Migration (RCM) test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spiesz, P.R.; Brouwers, H.J.H.

    2012-01-01

    This study addresses the influence of the applied voltage (electrical field) on the value of the chloride migration coefficient, as determined with the Rapid Chloride Migration (RCM) test, and on other properties of cement based mortars. It is shown that in the investigated ranges of applied

  19. Rapid post-earthquake modelling of coseismic landslide intensity and distribution for emergency response decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. R. Robinson

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Current methods to identify coseismic landslides immediately after an earthquake using optical imagery are too slow to effectively inform emergency response activities. Issues with cloud cover, data collection and processing, and manual landslide identification mean even the most rapid mapping exercises are often incomplete when the emergency response ends. In this study, we demonstrate how traditional empirical methods for modelling the total distribution and relative intensity (in terms of point density of coseismic landsliding can be successfully undertaken in the hours and days immediately after an earthquake, allowing the results to effectively inform stakeholders during the response. The method uses fuzzy logic in a GIS (Geographic Information Systems to quickly assess and identify the location-specific relationships between predisposing factors and landslide occurrence during the earthquake, based on small initial samples of identified landslides. We show that this approach can accurately model both the spatial pattern and the number density of landsliding from the event based on just several hundred mapped landslides, provided they have sufficiently wide spatial coverage, improving upon previous methods. This suggests that systematic high-fidelity mapping of landslides following an earthquake is not necessary for informing rapid modelling attempts. Instead, mapping should focus on rapid sampling from the entire affected area to generate results that can inform the modelling. This method is therefore suited to conditions in which imagery is affected by partial cloud cover or in which the total number of landslides is so large that mapping requires significant time to complete. The method therefore has the potential to provide a quick assessment of landslide hazard after an earthquake and may therefore inform emergency operations more effectively compared to current practice.

  20. Urban MEMS based seismic network for post-earthquakes rapid disaster assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Alessandro, Antonino; Luzio, Dario; D'Anna, Giuseppe

    2014-05-01

    Life losses following disastrous earthquake depends mainly by the building vulnerability, intensity of shaking and timeliness of rescue operations. In recent decades, the increase in population and industrial density has significantly increased the exposure to earthquakes of urban areas. The potential impact of a strong earthquake on a town center can be reduced by timely and correct actions of the emergency management centers. A real time urban seismic network can drastically reduce casualties immediately following a strong earthquake, by timely providing information about the distribution of the ground shaking level. Emergency management centers, with functions in the immediate post-earthquake period, could be use this information to allocate and prioritize resources to minimize loss of human life. However, due to the high charges of the seismological instrumentation, the realization of an urban seismic network, which may allow reducing the rate of fatalities, has not been achieved. Recent technological developments in MEMS (Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems) technology could allow today the realization of a high-density urban seismic network for post-earthquakes rapid disaster assessment, suitable for the earthquake effects mitigation. In the 1990s, MEMS accelerometers revolutionized the automotive-airbag system industry and are today widely used in laptops, games controllers and mobile phones. Due to their great commercial successes, the research into and development of MEMS accelerometers are actively pursued around the world. Nowadays, the sensitivity and dynamics of these sensors are such to allow accurate recording of earthquakes with moderate to strong magnitude. Due to their low cost and small size, the MEMS accelerometers may be employed for the realization of high-density seismic networks. The MEMS accelerometers could be installed inside sensitive places (high vulnerability and exposure), such as schools, hospitals, public buildings and places of

  1. Expanding the Delivery of Rapid Earthquake Information and Warnings for Response and Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanpied, M. L.; McBride, S.; Hardebeck, J.; Michael, A. J.; van der Elst, N.

    2017-12-01

    Scientific organizations like the United States Geological Survey (USGS) release information to support effective responses during an earthquake crisis. Information is delivered to the White House, the National Command Center, the Departments of Defense, Homeland Security (including FEMA), Transportation, Energy, and Interior. Other crucial stakeholders include state officials and decision makers, emergency responders, numerous public and private infrastructure management centers (e.g., highways, railroads and pipelines), the media, and the public. To meet the diverse information requirements of these users, rapid earthquake notifications have been developed to be delivered by e-mail and text message, as well as a suite of earthquake information resources such as ShakeMaps, Did You Feel It?, PAGER impact estimates, and data are delivered via the web. The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system being developed for the U.S. West Coast will identify and characterize an earthquake a few seconds after it begins, estimate the likely intensity of ground shaking, and deliver brief but critically important warnings to people and infrastructure in harm's way. Currently the USGS is also developing a capability to deliver Operational Earthquake Forecasts (OEF). These provide estimates of potential seismic behavior after large earthquakes and during evolving aftershock sequences. Similar work is underway in New Zealand, Japan, and Italy. In the development of OEF forecasts, social science research conducted during these sequences indicates that aftershock forecasts are valued for a variety of reasons, from informing critical response and recovery decisions to psychologically preparing for more earthquakes. New tools will allow users to customize map-based, spatiotemporal forecasts to their specific needs. Hazard curves and other advanced information will also be available. For such authoritative information to be understood and used during the pressures of an earthquake

  2. The Benefits and Limitations of Crowdsourced Information for Rapid Damage Assessment of Global Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Landès, M.; Roussel, F.

    2017-12-01

    The Internet has fastened the collection of felt reports and macroseismic data after global earthquakes. At the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC), where the traditional online questionnaires have been replace by thumbnail-based questionnaires, an average of half of the reports are collected within 10 minutes of an earthquake's occurrence. In regions where EMSC is well identified this goes down to 5 min. The user simply specifies the thumbnail corresponding to observed effects erasing languages barriers and improving collection via small smartphone screens. A previous study has shown that EMSC data is well correlated with "Did You Feel It" (DYFI) data and 3 independent, manually collected datasets. The efficiency and rapidity of felt report collection through thumbnail-based questionnaires does not necessarily mean that they offer a complete picture of the situation for all intensities values, especially the higher ones. There are several potential limitations. Demographics probably play a role but so might eyewitnesses' behaviors: it is probably not their priority to report when their own safety and that of their loved ones is at stake. We propose to test this hypothesis on EMSC felt reports and to extend the study to LastQuake smartphone application uses. LastQuake is a free smartphone app providing very rapid information on felt earthquakes. There are currently 210 000 active users around the world covering almost every country except for a few ones in Sub-Saharan Africa. Along with felt reports we also analyze the characteristics of LastQuake app launches. For both composite datasets created from 108 earthquakes, we analyze the rapidity of eyewitnesses' reaction and how it changes with intensity values and surmise how they reflect different types of behaviors. We will show the intrinsic limitations of crowdsourced information for rapid situation awareness. More importantly, we will show in which cases the lack of crowdsourced information could

  3. Rapid Modeling of and Response to Large Earthquakes Using Real-Time GPS Networks (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowell, B. W.; Bock, Y.; Squibb, M. B.

    2010-12-01

    Real-time GPS networks have the advantage of capturing motions throughout the entire earthquake cycle (interseismic, seismic, coseismic, postseismic), and because of this, are ideal for real-time monitoring of fault slip in the region. Real-time GPS networks provide the perfect supplement to seismic networks, which operate with lower noise and higher sampling rates than GPS networks, but only measure accelerations or velocities, putting them at a supreme disadvantage for ascertaining the full extent of slip during a large earthquake in real-time. Here we report on two examples of rapid modeling of recent large earthquakes near large regional real-time GPS networks. The first utilizes Japan’s GEONET consisting of about 1200 stations during the 2003 Mw 8.3 Tokachi-Oki earthquake about 100 km offshore Hokkaido Island and the second investigates the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake recorded by more than 100 stations in the California Real Time Network. The principal components of strain were computed throughout the networks and utilized as a trigger to initiate earthquake modeling. Total displacement waveforms were then computed in a simulated real-time fashion using a real-time network adjustment algorithm that fixes a station far away from the rupture to obtain a stable reference frame. Initial peak ground displacement measurements can then be used to obtain an initial size through scaling relationships. Finally, a full coseismic model of the event can be run minutes after the event, given predefined fault geometries, allowing emergency first responders and researchers to pinpoint the regions of highest damage. Furthermore, we are also investigating using total displacement waveforms for real-time moment tensor inversions to look at spatiotemporal variations in slip.

  4. E-DECIDER Rapid Response to the M 6.0 South Napa Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasscoe, M. T.; Parker, J. W.; Pierce, M. E.; Wang, J.; Eguchi, R. T.; Huyck, C. K.; Hu, Z.; Chen, Z.; Yoder, M. R.; Rundle, J. B.; Rosinski, A.

    2014-12-01

    E-DECIDER initiated rapid response mode when the California Earthquake Clearinghouse was activated the morning following the M6 Napa earthquake. Data products, including: 1) rapid damage and loss estimates, 2) deformation magnitude and slope change maps, and 3) aftershock forecasts were provided to the Clearinghouse partners within 24 hours of the event via XchangeCore Web Service Data Orchestration sharing. NASA data products were provided to end-users via XchangeCore, EERI and Clearinghouse websites, and ArcGIS online for Napa response, reaching a wide response audience. The E-DECIDER team helped facilitate rapid delivery of NASA products to stakeholders and participated in Clearinghouse Napa earthquake briefings to update stakeholders on product information. Rapid response products from E-DECIDER can be used to help prioritize response efforts shortly after the event has occurred. InLET (Internet Loss Estimation Tool) post-event damage and casualty estimates were generated quickly after the Napa earthquake. InLET provides immediate post-event estimates of casualties and building damage by performing loss/impact simulations using USGS ground motion data and FEMA HAZUS damage estimation technology. These results were provided to E-DECIDER by their collaborators, ImageCat, Inc. and the Community Stakeholder Network (CSN). Strain magnitude and slope change maps were automatically generated when the Napa earthquake appeared on the USGS feed. These maps provide an early estimate of where the deformation has occurred and where damage may be localized. Using E-DECIDER critical infrastructure overlays with damage estimates, decision makers can direct response effort that can be verified later with field reconnaissance and remote sensing-based observations. Earthquake aftershock forecast maps were produced within hours of the event. These maps highlight areas where aftershocks are likely to occur and can also be coupled with infrastructure overlays to help direct response

  5. RICHTER: A Smartphone Application for Rapid Collection of Geo-Tagged Pictures of Earthquake Damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinnemoen, H.; Bossu, R.; Furuheim, K.; Bjorgo, E.

    2010-12-01

    RICHTER (Rapid geo-Images for Collaborative Help Targeting Earthquake Response) is a smartphone version of a professional application developed to provide high quality geo-tagged image communication over challenging network links, such as satellites and poor mobile links. Developed for Android mobile phones, it allows eyewitnesses to share their pictures of earthquake damage easily and without cost with the Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC). The goal is to engage citizens in the collection of the most up-to-date visual information on local damage for improved rapid impact assessment. RICHTER integrates the innovative and award winning ASIGN protocol initially developed for satellite communication between cameras / computers / satcom terminals and servers at HQ. ASIGN is a robust and optimal image and video communication management solution for bandwidth-limited communication networks which was developed for use particularly in emergency and disaster situations. Contrary to a simple Multimedia Messaging System (MMS), RICHTER allows access to high definition images with embedded location information. Location is automatically assigned from either the internal GPS, derived from the mobile network (triangulation) or the current Wi-Fi domain, in that order, as this corresponds to the expected positioning accuracy. Pictures are compressed to 20-30KB of data typically for fast transfer and to avoid network overload. Full size images can be requested by the EMSC either fully automatically, or on a case-by-case basis, depending on the user preferences. ASIGN was initially developed in coordination with INMARSAT and the European Space Agency. It was used by the Rapid Mapping Unit of the United Nations notably for the damage assessment of the January 12, 2010 Haiti earthquake where more than 700 photos were collected. RICHTER will be freely distributed on the EMSC website to eyewitnesses in the event of significantly damaging earthquakes. The EMSC is the second

  6. Geodetic Imaging for Rapid Assessment of Earthquakes: Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, W. E.; Shrestha, R. L.; Glennie, C. L.; Sartori, M.; Fernandez-Diaz, J.; National CenterAirborne Laser Mapping Operational Center

    2010-12-01

    To the residents of an area struck by a strong earthquake quantitative information on damage to the infrastructure, and its attendant impact on relief and recovery efforts, is urgent and of primary concern. To earth scientists a strong earthquake offers an opportunity to learn more about earthquake mechanisms, and to compare their models with the real world, in hopes of one day being able to accurately predict the precise locations, magnitudes, and times of large (and potentially disastrous) earthquakes. Airborne laser scanning (also referred to as airborne LiDAR or Airborne Laser Swath Mapping) is particularly well suited for rapid assessment of earthquakes, both for immediately estimating the damage to infrastructure and for providing information for the scientific study of earthquakes. ALS observations collected at low altitude (500—1000m) from a relatively slow (70—100m/sec) aircraft can provide dense (5—15 points/m2) sets of surface features (buildings, vegetation, ground), extending over hundreds of square kilometers with turn around times of several hours to a few days. The actual response time to any given event depends on several factors, including such bureaucratic issues as approval of funds, export license formalities, and clearance to fly over the area to be mapped, and operational factors such as the deployment of the aircraft and ground teams may also take a number of days for remote locations. Of course the need for immediate mapping of earthquake damage generally is not as urgent in remote regions with less infrastructure and few inhabitants. During August 16-19, 2010 the National Center for Airborne Laser Mapping (NCALM) mapped the area affected by the magnitude 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake (Northern Baja California Earthquake), which occurred on April 4, 2010, and was felt throughout southern California, Arizona, Nevada, and Baja California North, Mexico. From initial ground observations the fault rupture appeared to extend 75 km

  7. Seismogeodetic monitoring techniques for tsunami and earthquake early warning and rapid assessment of structural damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, J. S.; Bock, Y.; Saunders, J. K.; Goldberg, D.; Restrepo, J. I.

    2016-12-01

    As part of an effort to promote the use of NASA-sponsored Earth science information for disaster risk reduction, real-time high-rate seismogeodetic data are being incorporated into early warning and structural monitoring systems. Seismogeodesy combines seismic acceleration and GPS displacement measurements using a tightly-coupled Kalman filter to provide absolute estimates of seismic acceleration, velocity and displacement. Traditionally, the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis has been based on seismic networks for estimating earthquake magnitude and slip, and tide gauges and deep-ocean buoys for direct measurement of tsunami waves. Real-time seismogeodetic observations at subduction zones allow for more robust and rapid magnitude and slip estimation that increase warning time in the near-source region. A NASA-funded effort to utilize GPS and seismogeodesy in NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii integrates new modules for picking, locating, and estimating magnitudes and moment tensors for earthquakes into the USGS earthworm environment at the TWCs. In a related project, NASA supports the transition of this research to seismogeodetic tools for disaster preparedness, specifically by implementing GPS and low-cost MEMS accelerometers for structural monitoring in partnership with earthquake engineers. Real-time high-rate seismogeodetic structural monitoring has been implemented on two structures. The first is a parking garage at the Autonomous University of Baja California Faculty of Medicine in Mexicali, not far from the rupture of the 2011 Mw 7.2 El Mayor Cucapah earthquake enabled through a UCMexus collaboration. The second is the 8-story Geisel Library at University of California, San Diego (UCSD). The system has also been installed for several proof-of-concept experiments at the UCSD Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES) Large High Performance Outdoor Shake Table. We present MEMS-based seismogeodetic observations from the 10 June

  8. SalanderMaps: A rapid overview about felt earthquakes through data mining of web-accesses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kradolfer, Urs

    2013-04-01

    While seismological observatories detect and locate earthquakes based on measurements of the ground motion, they neither know a priori whether an earthquake has been felt by the public nor is it known, where it has been felt. Such information is usually gathered by evaluating feedback reported by the public through on-line forms on the web. However, after a felt earthquake in Switzerland, many people visit the webpages of the Swiss Seismological Service (SED) at the ETH Zurich and each such visit leaves traces in the logfiles on our web-servers. Data mining techniques, applied to these logfiles and mining publicly available data bases on the internet open possibilities to obtain previously unknown information about our virtual visitors. In order to provide precise information to authorities and the media, it would be desirable to rapidly know from which locations these web-accesses origin. The method 'Salander' (Seismic Activitiy Linked to Area codes - Nimble Detection of Earthquake Rumbles) will be introduced and it will be explained, how the IP-addresses (each computer or router directly connected to the internet has a unique IP-address; an example would be 129.132.53.5) of a sufficient amount of our virtual visitors were linked to their geographical area. This allows us to unprecedentedly quickly know whether and where an earthquake was felt in Switzerland. It will also be explained, why the method Salander is superior to commercial so-called geolocation products. The corresponding products of the Salander method, animated SalanderMaps, which are routinely generated after each earthquake with a magnitude of M>2 in Switzerland (http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/prod/salandermaps/, available after March 2013), demonstrate how the wavefield of earthquakes propagates through Switzerland and where it was felt. Often, such information is available within less than 60 seconds after origin time, and we always get a clear picture within already five minutes after origin time

  9. Rapid earthquake hazard and loss assessment for Euro-Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdik, Mustafa; Sesetyan, Karin; Demircioglu, Mine; Hancilar, Ufuk; Zulfikar, Can; Cakti, Eser; Kamer, Yaver; Yenidogan, Cem; Tuzun, Cuneyt; Cagnan, Zehra; Harmandar, Ebru

    2010-10-01

    The almost-real time estimation of ground shaking and losses after a major earthquake in the Euro-Mediterranean region was performed in the framework of the Joint Research Activity 3 (JRA-3) component of the EU FP6 Project entitled "Network of Research Infra-structures for European Seismology, NERIES". This project consists of finding the most likely location of the earthquake source by estimating the fault rupture parameters on the basis of rapid inversion of data from on-line regional broadband stations. It also includes an estimation of the spatial distribution of selected site-specific ground motion parameters at engineering bedrock through region-specific ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) or physical simulation of ground motion. By using the Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine (ELER) software, the multi-level methodology developed for real time estimation of losses is capable of incorporating regional variability and sources of uncertainty stemming from GMPEs, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships.

  10. The population in China’s earthquake-prone areas has increased by over 32 million along with rapid urbanization

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chunyang; Huang, Qingxu; Dou, Yinyin; Tu, Wei; Liu, Jifu

    2016-07-01

    Accurate assessments of the population exposed to seismic hazard are crucial in seismic risk mapping. Recent rapid urbanization in China has resulted in substantial changes in the size and structure of the population exposed to seismic hazard. Using the latest population census data and seismic maps, this work investigated spatiotemporal changes in the exposure of the population in the most seismically hazardous areas (MSHAs) in China from 1990 to 2010. In the context of rapid urbanization and massive rural-to-urban migration, nearly one-tenth of the Chinese population in 2010 lived in MSHAs. From 1990 to 2010, the MSHA population increased by 32.53 million at a significantly higher rate of change (33.6%) than the national average rate (17.7%). The elderly population in MSHAs increased by 81.4%, which is much higher than the group’s national growth rate of 58.9%. Greater attention should be paid to the demographic changes in earthquake-prone areas in China.

  11. Thumbnail‐based questionnaires for the rapid and efficient collection of macroseismic data from global earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, Remy; Landes, Matthieu; Roussel, Frederic; Steed, Robert; Mazet-Roux, Gilles; Martin, Stacey S.; Hough, Susan E.

    2017-01-01

    The collection of earthquake testimonies (i.e., qualitative descriptions of felt shaking) is essential for macroseismic studies (i.e., studies gathering information on how strongly an earthquake was felt in different places), and when done rapidly and systematically, improves situational awareness and in turn can contribute to efficient emergency response. In this study, we present advances made in the collection of testimonies following earthquakes around the world using a thumbnail‐based questionnaire implemented on the European‐Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) smartphone app and its website compatible for mobile devices. In both instances, the questionnaire consists of a selection of thumbnails, each representing an intensity level of the European Macroseismic Scale 1998. We find that testimonies are collected faster, and in larger numbers, by way of thumbnail‐based questionnaires than by more traditional online questionnaires. Responses were received from all seismically active regions of our planet, suggesting that thumbnails overcome language barriers. We also observed that the app is not sufficient on its own, because the websites are the main source of testimonies when an earthquake strikes a region for the first time in a while; it is only for subsequent shocks that the app is widely used. Notably though, the speed of the collection of testimonies increases significantly when the app is used. We find that automated EMSC intensities as assigned by user‐specified thumbnails are, on average, well correlated with “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) responses and with the three independently and manually derived macroseismic datasets, but there is a tendency for EMSC to be biased low with respect to DYFI at moderate and large intensities. We address this by proposing a simple adjustment that will be verified in future earthquakes.

  12. A new quantitative method for the rapid evaluation of buildings against earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoodzadeh, Amir; Mazaheri, Mohammad Mehdi

    2008-01-01

    At the present time there exist numerous weak buildings which are not able to withstand earthquakes. At the same time, both private and public developers are trying to use scientific methods to prioritize and allocate budget in order to reinforce the above mentioned structures. This is because of the limited financial resources and time. In the recent years the procedure of seismic assessment before rehabilitation of vulnerable buildings has been implemented in many countries. Now, it seems logical to reinforce the existing procedures with the mass of available data about the effects caused by earthquakes on buildings. The main idea is driven from FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) in quality management where the main procedure is to recognize the failure, the causes, and the priority of each cause and failure. Specifying the causes and effects which lead to a certain shortcoming in structural behavior during earthquakes, an inventory is developed and each building is rated through a yes-or-no procedure. In this way, the rating of the structure is based on some standard forms which along with relative weights are developed in this study. The resulted criteria by rapid assessment will indicate whether the structure is to be demolished, has a high, medium or low vulnerability or is invulnerable

  13. Twitter as Information Source for Rapid Damage Estimation after Major Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggert, Silke; Fohringer, Joachim

    2014-05-01

    Natural disasters like earthquakes require a fast response from local authorities. Well trained rescue teams have to be available, equipment and technology has to be ready set up, information have to be directed to the right positions so the head quarter can manage the operation precisely. The main goal is to reach the most affected areas in a minimum of time. But even with the best preparation for these cases, there will always be the uncertainty of what really happened in the affected area. Modern geophysical sensor networks provide high quality data. These measurements, however, are only mapping disjoint values from their respective locations for a limited amount of parameters. Using observations of witnesses represents one approach to enhance measured values from sensors ("humans as sensors"). These observations are increasingly disseminated via social media platforms. These "social sensors" offer several advantages over common sensors, e.g. high mobility, high versatility of captured parameters as well as rapid distribution of information. Moreover, the amount of data offered by social media platforms is quite extensive. We analyze messages distributed via Twitter after major earthquakes to get rapid information on what eye-witnesses report from the epicentral area. We use this information to (a) quickly learn about damage and losses to support fast disaster response and to (b) densify geophysical networks in areas where there is sparse information to gain a more detailed insight on felt intensities. We present a case study from the Mw 7.1 Philippines (Bohol) earthquake that happened on Oct. 15 2013. We extract Twitter messages, so called tweets containing one or more specified keywords from the semantic field of "earthquake" and use them for further analysis. For the time frame of Oct. 15 to Oct 18 we get a data base of in total 50.000 tweets whereof 2900 tweets are geo-localized and 470 have a photo attached. Analyses for both national level and locally for

  14. An efficient rapid warning system for earthquakes in the European - Mediterranean region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazet-Roux, G.; Bossu, R; Tome, M.; Giovambattista, R. Di

    2002-01-01

    Every year a few damaging earthquakes occur in the European-Mediterranean region. It is therefore indispensable to operate a real-time warning system in order to provide rapidly reliable estimates of the location, depth and magnitude of these seismic events. In order to provide this information in a timely manner both to the scientific community and to the European and national authorities dealing with natural hazards and relief organisation, the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) has federated a network of seismic networks exchanging their data in quasi real-time. Today, thanks to the Internet, the EMSC receives real-time information about earthquakes from about thirty seismological institutes. As soon as data reach the EMSC, they are displayed on the EMSC Web pages (www.emsc-csem.org). A seismic alert is generated for any potentially damaging earthquake in the European-Mediterranean region and disseminated within one hour following its occurrence. Potentially damaging earthquakes are defined as seismic events of magnitude 5 or above in the European-Mediterranean region. The utility of this EMSC service is clearly demonstrated by its following among the public: EMSC e-mail dissemination list has been subscribed by about 300 institutions (ECHO, NGO, civil defence services, seismological institutes) or individuals and the rate of internet connections to EMSC web site dramatically increase following an alert. The aim of this presentation is to give a complete technical description of the EMSC warning system. We will also take this opportunity to thank each of the contributing institutions for their support and efforts to enhance the system performances. (authors)

  15. Rapid Source Characterization of the 2011 Mw 9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Gavin P.

    2011-01-01

    On March 11th, 2011, a moment magnitude 9.0 earthquake struck off the coast of northeast Honshu, Japan, generating what may well turn out to be the most costly natural disaster ever. In the hours following the event, the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center led a rapid response to characterize the earthquake in terms of its location, size, faulting source, shaking and slip distributions, and population exposure, in order to place the disaster in a framework necessary for timely humanitarian response. As part of this effort, fast finite-fault inversions using globally distributed body- and surface-wave data were used to estimate the slip distribution of the earthquake rupture. Models generated within 7 hours of the earthquake origin time indicated that the event ruptured a fault up to 300 km long, roughly centered on the earthquake hypocenter, and involved peak slips of 20 m or more. Updates since this preliminary solution improve the details of this inversion solution and thus our understanding of the rupture process. However, significant observations such as the up-dip nature of rupture propagation and the along-strike length of faulting did not significantly change, demonstrating the usefulness of rapid source characterization for understanding the first order characteristics of major earthquakes.

  16. Rapid characterization of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake sequence and its seismotectonic context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Gavin; Briggs, Richard; Barnhart, William D.; Yeck, William; McNamara, Daniel E.; Wald, David J.; Nealy, Jennifer; Benz, Harley M.; Gold, Ryan D.; Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Marano, Kristin; Earle, Paul S.; Hearne, Mike; Smoczyk, Gregory M.; Wald, Lisa A.; Samsonov, Sergey

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake response and related information products are important for placing recent seismic events into context and particularly for understanding the impact earthquakes can have on the regional community and its infrastructure. These tools are even more useful if they are available quickly, ahead of detailed information from the areas affected by such earthquakes. Here we provide an overview of the response activities and related information products generated and provided by the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center in association with the 2015 M 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake. This group monitors global earthquakes 24  hrs/day and 7  days/week to provide rapid information on the location and size of recent events and to characterize the source properties, tectonic setting, and potential fatalities and economic losses associated with significant earthquakes. We present the timeline over which these products became available, discuss what they tell us about the seismotectonics of the Gorkha earthquake and its aftershocks, and examine how their information is used today, and might be used in the future, to help mitigate the impact of such natural disasters.

  17. Analysis of the theoretical model of the rapid chloride migration test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spiesz, P.; Brouwers, H.J.H.; Fisher, Gregor; Geiker, Metta Rica; Hededal, Ole; Ottosen, Lisbeth M.; Stang, Henrik

    2010-01-01

    Chloride ion diffusion coefficient in concrete is estimated very often by using electromigration tests, among which the Rapid Chloride Migration (RCM) test is becoming more and more popular. Nevertheless, this test receives much criticism due to lacks in its scientific background. In this paper the

  18. Rapid estimation of the moment magnitude of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake from coseismic strain steps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itaba, S.; Matsumoto, N.; Kitagawa, Y.; Koizumi, N.

    2012-12-01

    The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake, of moment magnitude (Mw) 9.0, occurred at 14:46 Japan Standard Time (JST) on March 11, 2011. The coseismic strain steps caused by the fault slip of this earthquake were observed in the Tokai, Kii Peninsula and Shikoku by the borehole strainmeters which were carefully set by Geological Survey of Japan, AIST. Using these strain steps, we estimated a fault model for the earthquake on the boundary between the Pacific and North American plates. Our model, which is estimated only from several minutes' strain data, is largely consistent with the final fault models estimated from GPS and seismic wave data. The moment magnitude can be estimated about 6 minutes after the origin time, and 4 minutes after wave arrival. According to the fault model, the moment magnitude of the earthquake is 8.7. On the other hand, based on the seismic wave, the prompt report of the magnitude which the Japan Meteorological Agency announced just after earthquake occurrence was 7.9. Generally coseismic strain steps are considered to be less reliable than seismic waves and GPS data. However our results show that the coseismic strain steps observed by the borehole strainmeters, which were carefully set and monitored, can be relied enough to decide the earthquake magnitude precisely and rapidly. In order to grasp the magnitude of a great earthquake earlier, several methods are now being suggested to reduce the earthquake disasters including tsunami. Our simple method of using strain steps is one of the strong methods for rapid estimation of the magnitude of great earthquakes.

  19. Letter to the Editor : Rapidly-deployed small tent hospitals: lessons from the earthquake in Haiti.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosen, Y.; Gurman , P.; Verna, E.; Elman , N.; Labor, E. (Materials Science Division); (Superior NanoBioSystems LLC); (Fast Israeli Rescue & Search Team); (Clinique Adonai); (Mass. Inst. Tech.); (Univ. Haifa)

    2012-06-01

    The damage to medical facilities resulting form the January 2010 earthquake in haiti necessitated the establishment of field tent hospitals. Much of the local medical infrastructure was destroyed or limited operationally when the Fast Israel Rescue and Search Team (FIRST) arrived in Haiti shortly after the January 2010 earthquake. The FIRST deployed small tent hospitals in Port-au-Prince and in 11 remote areas outside of the city. Each tent was set up in less than a half hour. The tents were staffed with an orthopedic surgeon, gynecologists, primary care and emergency care physicians, a physician with previous experience in tropical medicine, nurses, paramedics, medics, and psychologists. The rapidly deployable and temporary nature of the effort allowed the team to treat and educate, as well as provide supplies for, thousands of refugees throughout Haiti. In addition, a local Haitian physician and his team created a small tent hospital to serve the Petion Refugee Camp and its environs. FIRST personnel also took shifts at this hospital.

  20. ER Alpha Rapid Signaling Is Required for Estrogen Induced Proliferation and Migration of Vascular Endothelial Cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Lu

    Full Text Available Estrogen promotes the proliferation and migration of vascular endothelial cells (ECs, which likely underlies its ability to accelerate re-endothelialization and reduce adverse remodeling after vascular injury. In previous studies, we have shown that the protective effects of E2 (the active endogenous form of estrogen in vascular injury require the estrogen receptor alpha (ERα. ERα transduces the effects of estrogen via a classical DNA binding, "genomic" signaling pathway and via a more recently-described "rapid" signaling pathway that is mediated by a subset of ERα localized to the cell membrane. However, which of these pathways mediates the effects of estrogen on endothelial cells is poorly understood. Here we identify a triple point mutant version of ERα (KRR ERα that is specifically defective in rapid signaling, but is competent to regulate transcription through the "genomic" pathway. We find that in ECs expressing wild type ERα, E2 regulates many genes involved in cell migration and proliferation, promotes EC migration and proliferation, and also blocks the adhesion of monocytes to ECs. ECs expressing KRR mutant ERα, however, lack all of these responses. These observations establish KRR ERα as a novel tool that could greatly facilitate future studies into the vascular and non-vascular functions of ERα rapid signaling. Further, they support that rapid signaling through ERα is essential for many of the transcriptional and physiological responses of ECs to E2, and that ERα rapid signaling in ECs, in vivo, may be critical for the vasculoprotective and anti-inflammatory effects of estrogen.

  1. Real-Time GPS Monitoring for Earthquake Rapid Assessment in the San Francisco Bay Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillemot, C.; Langbein, J. O.; Murray, J. R.

    2012-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Science Center has deployed a network of eight real-time Global Positioning System (GPS) stations in the San Francisco Bay area and is implementing software applications to continuously evaluate the status of the deformation within the network. Real-time monitoring of the station positions is expected to provide valuable information for rapidly estimating source parameters should a large earthquake occur in the San Francisco Bay area. Because earthquake response applications require robust data access, as a first step we have developed a suite of web-based applications which are now routinely used to monitor the network's operational status and data streaming performance. The web tools provide continuously updated displays of important telemetry parameters such as data latency and receive rates, as well as source voltage and temperature information within each instrument enclosure. Automated software on the backend uses the streaming performance data to mitigate the impact of outages, radio interference and bandwidth congestion on deformation monitoring operations. A separate set of software applications manages the recovery of lost data due to faulty communication links. Displacement estimates are computed in real-time for various combinations of USGS, Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) and Bay Area Regional Deformation (BARD) network stations. We are currently comparing results from two software packages (one commercial and one open-source) used to process 1-Hz data on the fly and produce estimates of differential positions. The continuous monitoring of telemetry makes it possible to tune the network to minimize the impact of transient interruptions of the data flow, from one or more stations, on the estimated positions. Ongoing work is focused on using data streaming performance history to optimize the quality of the position, reduce drift and outliers by switching to the best set of stations within the network, and

  2. Rapid grounding line migration induced by internal variability of a marine-terminating ice stream

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robel, A.; Schoof, C.; Tziperman, E.

    2013-12-01

    Numerous studies have found significant variability in the velocity of ice streams to be a prominent feature of geomorphologic records in the Siple Coast (Catania et al. 2012) and other regions in West Antarctica (Dowdeswell et al. 2008). Observations indicate that grounding line position is strongly influenced by ice stream variability, producing rapid grounding line migration in the recent past (Catania et al. 2006) and the modern (Joughin & Tulaczyk 2002). We analyze the interaction of grounding line mass flux and position in a marine-terminating ice stream using a stretch-coordinate flowline model. This model is based on that described in Schoof (2007), with a mesh refined near the grounding line to ensure accurate resolution of the mechanical transition zone. Here we have added lateral shear stress (Dupont & Alley 2005) and an undrained plastic bed (Tulaczyk et al. 2000). The parameter dependence of ice stream variability seen in this model compares favorably to both simpler (Robel et al. 2013) and more complex (van der Wel et al. 2013) models, though with some key differences. We find that thermally-induced internal ice stream variability can cause very rapid grounding line migration even in the absence of retrograde bed slopes or external forcing. Activation waves propagate along the ice stream length and trigger periods of rapid grounding line migration. We compare the behavior of the grounding line due to internal ice stream variability to changes triggered externally at the grounding line such as the rapid disintegration of buttressing ice shelves. Implications for Heinrich events and the Marine Ice Sheet Instability are discussed.

  3. Rapid Extraction of Landslide and Spatial Distribution Analysis after Jiuzhaigou Ms7.0 Earthquake Based on Uav Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Q. S.; Luo, Y.; Shen, W. H.; Li, Q.; Wang, X.

    2018-04-01

    Jiuzhaigou earthquake led to the collapse of the mountains and formed lots of landslides in Jiuzhaigou scenic spot and surrounding roads which caused road blockage and serious ecological damage. Due to the urgency of the rescue, the authors carried unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and entered the disaster area as early as August 9 to obtain the aerial images near the epicenter. On the basis of summarizing the earthquake landslides characteristics in aerial images, by using the object-oriented analysis method, landslides image objects were obtained by multi-scale segmentation, and the feature rule set of each level was automatically built by SEaTH (Separability and Thresholds) algorithm to realize the rapid landslide extraction. Compared with visual interpretation, object-oriented automatic landslides extraction method achieved an accuracy of 94.3 %. The spatial distribution of the earthquake landslide had a significant positive correlation with slope and relief and had a negative correlation with the roughness, but no obvious correlation with the aspect. The relationship between the landslide and the aspect was not found and the probable reason may be that the distance between the study area and the seismogenic fault was too far away. This work provided technical support for the earthquake field emergency, earthquake landslide prediction and disaster loss assessment.

  4. RAPID EXTRACTION OF LANDSLIDE AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS AFTER JIUZHAIGOU Ms7.0 EARTHQUAKE BASED ON UAV IMAGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Q. S. Jiao

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Jiuzhaigou earthquake led to the collapse of the mountains and formed lots of landslides in Jiuzhaigou scenic spot and surrounding roads which caused road blockage and serious ecological damage. Due to the urgency of the rescue, the authors carried unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV and entered the disaster area as early as August 9 to obtain the aerial images near the epicenter. On the basis of summarizing the earthquake landslides characteristics in aerial images, by using the object-oriented analysis method, landslides image objects were obtained by multi-scale segmentation, and the feature rule set of each level was automatically built by SEaTH (Separability and Thresholds algorithm to realize the rapid landslide extraction. Compared with visual interpretation, object-oriented automatic landslides extraction method achieved an accuracy of 94.3 %. The spatial distribution of the earthquake landslide had a significant positive correlation with slope and relief and had a negative correlation with the roughness, but no obvious correlation with the aspect. The relationship between the landslide and the aspect was not found and the probable reason may be that the distance between the study area and the seismogenic fault was too far away. This work provided technical support for the earthquake field emergency, earthquake landslide prediction and disaster loss assessment.

  5. Flash sourcing, or rapid detection and characterization of earthquake effects through website traffic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurent Frobert

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available

    This study presents the latest developments of an approach called ‘flash sourcing’, which provides information on the effects of an earthquake within minutes of its occurrence. Information is derived from an analysis of the website traffic surges of the European–Mediterranean Seismological Centre website after felt earthquakes. These surges are caused by eyewitnesses to a felt earthquake, who are the first who are informed of, and hence the first concerned by, an earthquake occurrence. Flash sourcing maps the felt area, and at least in some circumstances, the regions affected by severe damage or network disruption. We illustrate how the flash-sourced information improves and speeds up the delivery of public earthquake information, and beyond seismology, we consider what it can teach us about public responses when experiencing an earthquake. Future developments should improve the description of the earthquake effects and potentially contribute to the improvement of the efficiency of earthquake responses by filling the information gap after the occurrence of an earthquake.

  6. Earthquake Magnitude and Shaking Intensity Dependent Fragility Functions for Rapid Risk Assessment of Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie-José Nollet

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available An integrated web application, referred to as ER2 for rapid risk evaluator, is under development for a user-friendly seismic risk assessment by the non-expert public safety community. The assessment of likely negative consequences is based on pre-populated databases of seismic, building inventory and vulnerability parameters. To further accelerate the computation for near real-time analyses, implicit building fragility curves were developed as functions of the magnitude and the intensity of the seismic shaking defined with a single intensity measure, input spectral acceleration at 1.0 s implicitly considering the epicentral distance and local soil conditions. Damage probabilities were compared with those obtained with the standard fragility functions explicitly considering epicentral distances and local site classes in addition to the earthquake magnitudes and respective intensity of the seismic shaking. Different seismic scenarios were considered first for 53 building classes common in Eastern Canada, and then a reduced number of 24 combined building classes was proposed. Comparison of results indicate that the damage predictions with implicit fragility functions for short (M ≤ 5.5 and medium strong motion duration (5.5 < M ≤ 7.5 show low variation with distance and soil class, with average error of less than 3.6%.

  7. Crowdsourcing Rapid Assessment of Collapsed Buildings Early after the Earthquake Based on Aerial Remote Sensing Image: A Case Study of Yushu Earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuai Xie

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Remote sensing (RS images play a significant role in disaster emergency response. Web2.0 changes the way data are created, making it possible for the public to participate in scientific issues. In this paper, an experiment is designed to evaluate the reliability of crowdsourcing buildings collapse assessment in the early time after an earthquake based on aerial remote sensing image. The procedure of RS data pre-processing and crowdsourcing data collection is presented. A probabilistic model including maximum likelihood estimation (MLE, Bayes’ theorem and expectation-maximization (EM algorithm are applied to quantitatively estimate the individual error-rate and “ground truth” according to multiple participants’ assessment results. An experimental area of Yushu earthquake is provided to present the results contributed by participants. Following the results, some discussion is provided regarding accuracy and variation among participants. The features of buildings labeled as the same damage type are found highly consistent. This suggests that the building damage assessment contributed by crowdsourcing can be treated as reliable samples. This study shows potential for a rapid building collapse assessment through crowdsourcing and quantitatively inferring “ground truth” according to crowdsourcing data in the early time after the earthquake based on aerial remote sensing image.

  8. How citizen seismology is transforming rapid public earthquake information: the example of LastQuake smartphone application and Twitter QuakeBot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Etivant, C.; Roussel, F.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Steed, R.

    2014-12-01

    Smartphone applications have swiftly become one of the most popular tools for rapid reception of earthquake information for the public. Wherever someone's own location is, they can be automatically informed when an earthquake has struck just by setting a magnitude threshold and an area of interest. No need to browse the internet: the information reaches you automatically and instantaneously! One question remains: are the provided earthquake notifications always relevant for the public? A while after damaging earthquakes many eyewitnesses scrap the application they installed just after the mainshock. Why? Because either the magnitude threshold is set too high and many felt earthquakes are missed, or it is set too low and the majority of the notifications are related to unfelt earthquakes thereby only increasing anxiety among the population at each new update. Felt and damaging earthquakes are the ones of societal importance even when of small magnitude. LastQuake app and Twitter feed (QuakeBot) focuses on these earthquakes that matter for the public by collating different information threads covering tsunamigenic, damaging and felt earthquakes. Non-seismic detections and macroseismic questionnaires collected online are combined to identify felt earthquakes regardless their magnitude. Non seismic detections include Twitter earthquake detections, developed by the USGS, where the number of tweets containing the keyword "earthquake" is monitored in real time and flashsourcing, developed by the EMSC, which detect traffic surges on its rapid earthquake information website caused by the natural convergence of eyewitnesses who rush to the Internet to investigate the cause of the shaking that they have just felt. We will present the identification process of the felt earthquakes, the smartphone application and the 27 automatically generated tweets and how, by providing better public services, we collect more data from citizens.

  9. Rupture complexity of the Mw 8.3 sea of okhotsk earthquake: Rapid triggering of complementary earthquakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Shengji; Helmberger, Don; Zhan, Zhongwen; Graves, Robert

    2013-01-01

    We derive a finite slip model for the 2013 Mw 8.3 Sea of Okhotsk Earthquake (Z = 610 km) by inverting calibrated teleseismic P waveforms. The inversion shows that the earthquake ruptured on a 10° dipping rectangular fault zone (140 km × 50 km) and evolved into a sequence of four large sub-events (E1–E4) with an average rupture speed of 4.0 km/s. The rupture process can be divided into two main stages. The first propagated south, rupturing sub-events E1, E2, and E4. The second stage (E3) originated near E2 with a delay of 12 s and ruptured northward, filling the slip gap between E1 and E2. This kinematic process produces an overall slip pattern similar to that observed in shallow swarms, except it occurs over a compressed time span of about 30 s and without many aftershocks, suggesting that sub-event triggering for deep events is significantly more efficient than for shallow events.

  10. LastQuake: a comprehensive strategy for rapid engagement of earthquake eyewitnesses, massive crowdsourcing and risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Roussel, F.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Steed, R.; Frobert, L.

    2015-12-01

    LastQuake is a smartphone app, browser add-on and the most sophisticated Twitter robot (quakebot) for earthquakes currently in operation. It fulfills eyewitnesses' needs by offering information on felt earthquakes and their effects within tens of seconds of their occurrence. Associated with an active presence on Facebook, Pinterest and on websites, this proves a very efficient engagement strategy. For example, the app was installed thousands of times after the Ghorka earthquake in Nepal. Language barriers have been erased by using visual communication; for example, felt reports are collected through a set of cartoons representing different shaking levels. Within 3 weeks of the magnitude 7.8 Ghorka earthquakes, 7,000 felt reports with thousands of comments were collected related to the mainshock and tens of its aftershocks as well as 100 informative geo-located pics. The QuakeBot was essential in allowing us to be identified so well and interact with those affected. LastQuake is also a risk reduction tool since it provides rapid information. Rapid information is similar to prevention since when it does not exist, disasters can happen. When no information is available after a felt earthquake, the public block emergency lines by trying to find out the cause of the shaking, crowds form potentially leading to unpredictable crowd movement, rumors spread. In its next release LastQuake will also provide people with guidance immediately after a shaking through a number of pop-up cartoons illustrating "do/don't do" items (go to open places, do not phone emergency services except if people are injured…). LastQuake's app design is simple and intuitive and has a global audience. It benefited from a crowdfunding campaign (and the support of the Fondation MAIF) and more improvements have been planned after an online feedback campaign organized in early June with the Ghorka earthquake eyewitnesses. LastQuake is also a seismic risk reduction tools thanks to its very rapid

  11. Interaction of the san jacinto and san andreas fault zones, southern california: triggered earthquake migration and coupled recurrence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, C O

    1993-05-14

    Two lines of evidence suggest that large earthquakes that occur on either the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) or the San Andreas fault zone (SAFZ) may be triggered by large earthquakes that occur on the other. First, the great 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake in the SAFZ seems to have triggered a progressive sequence of earthquakes in the SJFZ. These earthquakes occurred at times and locations that are consistent with triggering by a strain pulse that propagated southeastward at a rate of 1.7 kilometers per year along the SJFZ after the 1857 earthquake. Second, the similarity in average recurrence intervals in the SJFZ (about 150 years) and in the Mojave segment of the SAFZ (132 years) suggests that large earthquakes in the northern SJFZ may stimulate the relatively frequent major earthquakes on the Mojave segment. Analysis of historic earthquake occurrence in the SJFZ suggests little likelihood of extended quiescence between earthquake sequences.

  12. Some rapid and long traveled landslides triggered by the May 12, 2008 Sichuan earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, G.; Kamai, T.; Chigira, M.; Wu, X. Y.; Zhang, D. X.

    2009-04-01

    On May 12, 2008, a 7.9M earthquake struck Sichuan province of China, causing a huge number of death and injuries, and great loss of properties, becoming the most damaging earthquake since the 1976 Tangshan earthquake, in China. The collapse of buildings during the earthquake is the main reason for the casualties. There are a huge number of landslides that had been triggered by this earthquake. Almost all the roads to the mountainous areas had been blocked and many dams were formed by the displaced landslide materials, resulting in great difficulties for the aftershock rescue activities. Also a big portion of the casualties was directly caused by the landslides. The authors had reconnaissance field trips of the landslides, and performed preliminary investigation on some of the catastrophic ones. In this report, four landslides, i.e., Xiejiadian landslide in Pengzhou city, Donghekou landslide and Magongxiang landslide in Qingchuan County, and Niujuangou landslide on the epicenter area of Yingxiu Town, are introduced. The characteristics of deposited landslide masses in Donghekou landslide were investigated by means of a multichannel surface wave technique. Two earthquake recorders were installed at the upper part and deposit area of Donghekou landslide. The seismic responses of different parts of the landslides were monitored, and recorded successfully during the aftershocks that occurred in Qingchuan County on July 24, 2008. Also the drained and undrained dynamic shear behaviors of samples from the landslide areas were examined. Some preliminary analyzing results will be presented in this report.

  13. Rapid expansion and pseudo spectral implementation for reverse time migration in VTI media

    KAUST Repository

    Pestana, Reynam C; Ursin, Bjø rn; Stoffa, Paul L

    2012-01-01

    In isotropic media, we use the scalar acoustic wave equation to perform reverse time migration (RTM) of the recorded pressure wavefield data. In anisotropic media, P- and SV-waves are coupled, and the elastic wave equation should be used for RTM. For computational efficiency, a pseudo-acoustic wave equation is often used. This may be solved using a coupled system of second-order partial differential equations. We solve these using a pseudo spectral method and the rapid expansion method (REM) for the explicit time marching. This method generates a degenerate SV-wave in addition to the P-wave arrivals of interest. To avoid this problem, the elastic wave equation for vertical transversely isotropic (VTI) media can be split into separate wave equations for P- and SV-waves. These separate wave equations are stable, and they can be effectively used to model and migrate seismic data in VTI media where |ε- δ| is small. The artifact for the SV-wave has also been removed. The independent pseudo-differential wave equations can be solved one for each mode using the pseudo spectral method for the spatial derivatives and the REM for the explicit time advance of the wavefield. We show numerically stable and high-resolution modeling and RTM results for the pure P-wave mode in VTI media. © 2012 Sinopec Geophysical Research Institute.

  14. Rapid Reactivation of Cyanobacterial Photosynthesis and Migration upon Rehydration of Desiccated Marine Microbial Mats

    KAUST Repository

    Chennu, Arjun

    2015-12-24

    Desiccated cyanobacterial mats are the dominant biological feature in the Earth’s arid zones. While the response of desiccated cyanobacteria to rehydration is well-documented for terrestrial systems, information about the response in marine systems is lacking. We used high temporal resolution hyperspectral imaging, liquid chromatography, pulse-amplitude fluorometry, oxygen microsensors, and confocal laser microscopy to study this response in a desiccated microbial mat from Exmouth Gulf, Australia. During the initial 15 min after rehydration chlorophyll a concentrations increased 2–5 fold and cyanobacterial photosynthesis was re-established. Although the mechanism behind this rapid increase of chlorophyll a remains unknown, we hypothesize that it involves resynthesis from a precursor stored in desiccated cyanobacteria. The subsequent phase (15 min–48 h) involved migration of the reactivated cyanobacteria toward the mat surface, which led, together with a gradual increase in chlorophyll a, to a further increase in photosynthesis. We conclude that the response involving an increase in chlorophyll a and recovery of photosynthetic activity within minutes after rehydration is common for cyanobacteria from desiccated mats of both terrestrial and marine origin. However, the response of upward migration and its triggering factor appear to be mat-specific and likely linked to other factors.

  15. Rapid expansion and pseudo spectral implementation for reverse time migration in VTI media

    KAUST Repository

    Pestana, Reynam C

    2012-04-24

    In isotropic media, we use the scalar acoustic wave equation to perform reverse time migration (RTM) of the recorded pressure wavefield data. In anisotropic media, P- and SV-waves are coupled, and the elastic wave equation should be used for RTM. For computational efficiency, a pseudo-acoustic wave equation is often used. This may be solved using a coupled system of second-order partial differential equations. We solve these using a pseudo spectral method and the rapid expansion method (REM) for the explicit time marching. This method generates a degenerate SV-wave in addition to the P-wave arrivals of interest. To avoid this problem, the elastic wave equation for vertical transversely isotropic (VTI) media can be split into separate wave equations for P- and SV-waves. These separate wave equations are stable, and they can be effectively used to model and migrate seismic data in VTI media where |ε- δ| is small. The artifact for the SV-wave has also been removed. The independent pseudo-differential wave equations can be solved one for each mode using the pseudo spectral method for the spatial derivatives and the REM for the explicit time advance of the wavefield. We show numerically stable and high-resolution modeling and RTM results for the pure P-wave mode in VTI media. © 2012 Sinopec Geophysical Research Institute.

  16. Rapid reactivation of cyanobacterial photosynthesis and migration upon rehydration of desiccated marine microbial mats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arjun eChennu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Desiccated cyanobacterial mats are the dominant biological feature in the Earth's arid zones. While the response of desiccated cyanobacteria to rehydration is well documented for terrestrial systems, information about the response in marine systems is lacking. We used high temporal resolution hyperspectral imaging, liquid chromatography, pulse-amplitude fluorometry, oxygen microsensors and confocal laser microscopy to study this response in a desiccated microbial mat from Exmouth Gulf, Australia. During the initial 15 minutes after rehydration chlorophyll a concentrations increased 2-5 fold and cyanobacterial photosynthesis was re-established. Although the mechanism behind this rapid increase of chlorophyll a remains unknown, we hypothesize that it involves resynthesis from a precursor stored in desiccated cyanobacteria. The subsequent phase (15 min – 48 h involved migration of the reactivated cyanobacteria towards the mat surface, which led, together with a gradual increase in chlorophyll a, to a further increase in photosynthesis. We conclude that the response involving an increase in chlorophyll a and recovery of photosynthetic activity within minutes after rehydration is common for cyanobacteria from desiccated mats of both terrestrial and aquatic origin. However the response of upward migration and its triggering factor appears to be mat-specific and likely linked to other factors.

  17. Rapid Reactivation of Cyanobacterial Photosynthesis and Migration upon Rehydration of Desiccated Marine Microbial Mats

    KAUST Repository

    Chennu, Arjun; Grinham, Alistair; Polerecky, Lubos; de Beer, Dirk; Alnajjar, Mohammad Ahmad

    2015-01-01

    Desiccated cyanobacterial mats are the dominant biological feature in the Earth’s arid zones. While the response of desiccated cyanobacteria to rehydration is well-documented for terrestrial systems, information about the response in marine systems is lacking. We used high temporal resolution hyperspectral imaging, liquid chromatography, pulse-amplitude fluorometry, oxygen microsensors, and confocal laser microscopy to study this response in a desiccated microbial mat from Exmouth Gulf, Australia. During the initial 15 min after rehydration chlorophyll a concentrations increased 2–5 fold and cyanobacterial photosynthesis was re-established. Although the mechanism behind this rapid increase of chlorophyll a remains unknown, we hypothesize that it involves resynthesis from a precursor stored in desiccated cyanobacteria. The subsequent phase (15 min–48 h) involved migration of the reactivated cyanobacteria toward the mat surface, which led, together with a gradual increase in chlorophyll a, to a further increase in photosynthesis. We conclude that the response involving an increase in chlorophyll a and recovery of photosynthetic activity within minutes after rehydration is common for cyanobacteria from desiccated mats of both terrestrial and marine origin. However, the response of upward migration and its triggering factor appear to be mat-specific and likely linked to other factors.

  18. Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Baseline County-Level Migration Characteristics and Trends 1995-2000 and 2001-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.

    2008-01-01

    The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards. In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report uses historical, estimated, and projected population data from several Federal and State data sources to estimate baseline characteristics and trends of the region's population migration (that is, changes in a person's place of residence over time). The analysis characterizes migration by various demographic, economic, family, and household variables for the period 1995-2000. It also uses existing estimates (beginning in 2001) of the three components of population change - births, deaths, and migration - to extrapolate near-term projections of county-level migration trends through 2010. The 2010 date was chosen to provide baseline projections corresponding to a two-year recovery period following the November 2008 date that was selected for the occurrence of the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake. The baseline characteristics and projections shall assist with evaluating the effects of inflow and outflow migration trends for alternative futures in which the simulated M7.8 earthquake either does or does not occur and the impact of the event on housing and jobs, as well as community composition and regional economy changes based on dispersion of intellectual, physical, economic, and cultural capital.

  19. Rapid Response Products of The ARIA Project for the M6.0 August 24, 2014 South Napa Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, S. H.; Owen, S. E.; Hua, H.; Milillo, P.; Fielding, E. J.; Hudnut, K. W.; Dawson, T. E.; Mccrink, T. P.; Jo, M. J.; Barnhart, W. D.; Manipon, G. J. M.; Agram, P. S.; Moore, A. W.; Jung, H. S.; Webb, F.; Milillo, G.; Rosinski, A.

    2014-12-01

    A magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck southern Napa county northeast of San Francisco, California, on Aug. 24, 2014, causing significant damage in the city of Napa and nearby areas. One day after the earthquake, the Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) team produced and released observations of coseismic ground displacement measured with continuous GPS stations of the Plate Boundary Observatory (operated by UNAVCO for the National Science Foundation) and the Bay Area Rapid Deformation network (operated by Berkeley Seismological Laboratory). Three days after the earthquake (Aug. 27), the Italian Space Agency's (ASI) COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) satellite acquired their first post-event data. On the same day, the ARIA team, in collaboration with ASI and University of Basilicata, produced and released a coseismic interferogram that revealed ground deformation and surface rupture. The depiction of the surface rupture - discontinuities of color fringes in the CSK interferogram - helped guide field geologists from the US Geological Survey and the California Geological Survey (CGS) to features that may have otherwise gone undetected. Small-scale cracks were found on a runway of the Napa County Airport, as well as bridge damage and damaged roads. ARIA's response to this event highlighted the importance of timeliness for mapping surface deformation features. ARIA's rapid response products were shared through Southern California Earthquake Center's response website and the California Earthquake Clearinghouse. A damage proxy map derived from InSAR coherence of CSK data was produced and distributed on Aug. 27. Field crews from the CGS identified true and false positives, including mobile home damage, newly planted grape vines, and a cripple wall failure of a house. Finite fault slip models constrained from CSK interferograms and continuous GPS observations reveal a north-propagating rupture with well-resolved slip from 0-10.5 km depth. We also measured along-track coseismic

  20. Rapid expansion method (REM) for time‐stepping in reverse time migration (RTM)

    KAUST Repository

    Pestana, Reynam C.

    2009-01-01

    We show that the wave equation solution using a conventional finite‐difference scheme, derived commonly by the Taylor series approach, can be derived directly from the rapid expansion method (REM). After some mathematical manipulation we consider an analytical approximation for the Bessel function where we assume that the time step is sufficiently small. From this derivation we find that if we consider only the first two Chebyshev polynomials terms in the rapid expansion method we can obtain the second order time finite‐difference scheme that is frequently used in more conventional finite‐difference implementations. We then show that if we use more terms from the REM we can obtain a more accurate time integration of the wave field. Consequently, we have demonstrated that the REM is more accurate than the usual finite‐difference schemes and it provides a wave equation solution which allows us to march in large time steps without numerical dispersion and is numerically stable. We illustrate the method with post and pre stack migration results.

  1. Rapid estimation of earthquake magnitude from the arrival time of the peak high‐frequency amplitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noda, Shunta; Yamamoto, Shunroku; Ellsworth, William L.

    2016-01-01

    We propose a simple approach to measure earthquake magnitude M using the time difference (Top) between the body‐wave onset and the arrival time of the peak high‐frequency amplitude in an accelerogram. Measured in this manner, we find that Mw is proportional to 2logTop for earthquakes 5≤Mw≤7, which is the theoretical proportionality if Top is proportional to source dimension and stress drop is scale invariant. Using high‐frequency (>2  Hz) data, the root mean square (rms) residual between Mw and MTop(M estimated from Top) is approximately 0.5 magnitude units. The rms residuals of the high‐frequency data in passbands between 2 and 16 Hz are uniformly smaller than those obtained from the lower‐frequency data. Top depends weakly on epicentral distance, and this dependence can be ignored for distances earthquake produces a final magnitude estimate of M 9.0 at 120 s after the origin time. We conclude that Top of high‐frequency (>2  Hz) accelerograms has value in the context of earthquake early warning for extremely large events.

  2. Rapid Seismic Deployment for Capturing Aftershocks of the September 2017 Tehuantepec, Mexico (M=8.1) and Morelos-Puebla (M=7.1), Mexico Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco, A. A.; Karplus, M. S.; Dena, O.; Gonzalez-Huizar, H.; Husker, A. L.; Perez-Campos, X.; Calo, M.; Valdes, C. M.

    2017-12-01

    The September 7 Tehuantepec, Mexico (M=8.1) and the September 19 Morelos-Puebla, Mexico (M=7.1) earthquakes ruptured with extensional faulting within the Cocos Plate at 70-km and 50-km depth, as it subducts beneath the continental North American Plate. Both earthquakes caused significant damage and loss of life. These events were followed by a M=6.1 extensional earthquake at only 10-km depth in Oaxaca on September 23, 2017. While the Morelos-Puebla earthquake was likely too far away to be statically triggered by the Tehuantepec earthquake, initial Coulomb stress analyses show that the M=6.1 event may have been an aftershock of the Tehuantepec earthquake. Many questions remain about these earthquakes, including: Did the Cocos Plate earthquakes load the upper plate, and could they possibly trigger an equal or larger earthquake on the plate interface? Are these the result of plate bending? Do the aftershocks migrate to the locked zone in the subduction zone? Why did the intermediate depth earthquakes create so much damage? Are these earthquakes linked by dynamic stresses? Is it possible that a potential slow-slip event triggered both events? To address some of these questions, we deployed 10 broadband seismometers near the epicenter of the Tehuantepec, Mexico earthquake and 51 UTEP-owned nodes (5-Hz, 3-component geophones) to record aftershocks and augment networks deployed by the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM). The 10 broadband instruments will be deployed for 6 months, while the nodes were deployed 25 days. The relative ease-of-deployment and larger numbers of the nodes allowed us to deploy them quickly in the area near the M=6.1 Oaxaca earthquake, just a few days after that earthquake struck. We deployed them near the heavily-damaged cities of Juchitan, Ixtaltepec, and Ixtepec as well as in Tehuantepec and Salina Cruz, Oaxaca in order to test their capabilities for site characterization and aftershock studies. This is the first test of these

  3. Rapid GNSS and Data Communication System Deployments In Chile and Argentina Following the M8.8 Maule Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blume, F.; Meertens, C. M.; Brooks, B. A.; Bevis, M. G.; Smalley, R.; Parra, H.; Baez, J.

    2010-12-01

    Because the signal is so big, great earthquakes allow us to make quantum leaps in our understanding of Earth deformation process and material properties. The Maule earthquake, with its occurrence near a large subaerial landmass and the large numbers of instruments available to study it, will surely become one of the most important geophysical events in modern memory. Much of the important signal, however, decays and changes rapidly in the short-term following the event and so a rapid response is necessary. Actually delivering the data from the CGPS response stations, however, represents an intellectual challenge in terms of properly matching the engineering realities with the scientific desiderata. We expect multiple major science advances to come from these data: (1) Understanding earthquake and tsunami-genesis via use of the coseismic displacement field to create the most well-constrained fault slip and tsunami-genesis models. (2) The role of stress loading on both the principal thrust plane and subsidiary planes. (3) The relationship between fault afterslip to the main event as well as to the distribution of aftershocks (4) Study of large aftershocks jointly using conventional seismology and high-rate GPS coseismic displacement seismogram. (5) Rheological behavior of the fault interface. (6) The mechanical response of the bulk earth to large stress perturbations. Within 10 days of the earthquake 20 complete GPS systems were delivered by UNAVCO personnel to IGM and OSU staff in Santiago, and 5 were shipped via diplomatic pouch to Argentina. Consisting of of 10 Trimble NetRS and 15 Topcon GB-1000 receivers, the units were deployed througout the affected area during the following three weeks, using welded-in-place steel tripod monuments driven into soil or drilled into bedrock, or steel masts. Additional GPS hardware was procured from cooperating institutions and donated by GPS manufacturers, and a total of 43 post-earthquake GPS stations are continuously operating

  4. Distribution and migration of aftershocks of the 2010 Mw 7.4 Ogasawara Islands intraplate normal-faulting earthquake related to a fracture zone in the Pacific plate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obana, Koichiro; Takahashi, Tsutomu; No, Tetsuo; Kaiho, Yuka; Kodaira, Shuichi; Yamashita, Mikiya; Sato, Takeshi; Nakamura, Takeshi

    2014-04-01

    describe the aftershocks of a Mw 7.4 intraplate normal-faulting earthquake that occurred 150 km east Ogasawara (Bonin) Islands, Japan, on 21 December 2010. It occurred beneath the outer trench slope of the Izu-Ogasawara trench, where the Pacific plate subducts beneath the Philippine Sea plate. Aftershock observations using ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs) began soon after the earthquake and multichannel seismic reflection surveys were conducted across the aftershock area. Aftershocks were distributed in a NW-SE belt 140 km long, oblique to the N-S trench axis. They formed three subparallel lineations along a fracture zone in the Pacific plate. The OBS observations combined with data from stations on Chichi-jima and Haha-jima Islands revealed a migration of the aftershock activity. The first hour, which likely outlines the main shock rupture, was limited to an 80 km long area in the central part of the subsequent aftershock area. The first hour activity occurred mainly around, and appears to have been influenced by, nearby large seamounts and oceanic plateau, such as the Ogasawara Plateau and the Uyeda Ridge. Over the following days, the aftershocks expanded beyond or into these seamounts and plateau. The aftershock distribution and migration suggest that crustal heterogeneities related to a fracture zone and large seamounts and oceanic plateau in the incoming Pacific plate affected the rupture of the main shock. Such preexisting structures may influence intraplate normal-faulting earthquakes in other regions of plate flexure prior to subduction.

  5. Maximum magnitude of injection-induced earthquakes: A criterion to assess the influence of pressure migration along faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norbeck, Jack H.; Horne, Roland N.

    2018-05-01

    The maximum expected earthquake magnitude is an important parameter in seismic hazard and risk analysis because of its strong influence on ground motion. In the context of injection-induced seismicity, the processes that control how large an earthquake will grow may be influenced by operational factors under engineering control as well as natural tectonic factors. Determining the relative influence of these effects on maximum magnitude will impact the design and implementation of induced seismicity management strategies. In this work, we apply a numerical model that considers the coupled interactions of fluid flow in faulted porous media and quasidynamic elasticity to investigate the earthquake nucleation, rupture, and arrest processes for cases of induced seismicity. We find that under certain conditions, earthquake ruptures are confined to a pressurized region along the fault with a length-scale that is set by injection operations. However, earthquakes are sometimes able to propagate as sustained ruptures outside of the zone that experienced a pressure perturbation. We propose a faulting criterion that depends primarily on the state of stress and the earthquake stress drop to characterize the transition between pressure-constrained and runaway rupture behavior.

  6. Rapid Deterioration of Latent HBV Hepatitis during Cushing Disease and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder after Earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tashiro, Ryosuke; Ogawa, Yoshikazu; Tominaga, Teiji

    2017-07-01

    Reactivation of the hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a risk in the 350 million HBV carriers worldwide. HBV reactivation may cause hepatocellular carcinoma, cirrhosis, and fulminant hepatitis, and HBV reactivation accompanied with malignant tumor and/or chemotherapy is a critical problem for patients with chronic HBV infection. Multiple risk factors causing an immunosuppressive state can also induce HBV reactivation.We present a case of HBV reactivation during an immunosuppressive state caused by Cushing disease and physical and psychological stress after a disaster. A 47-year-old Japanese woman was an inactive HBV carrier until the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred and follow-up was discontinued. One year after the earthquake she had intractable hypertension, and her visual acuity gradually worsened. Head magnetic resonance imaging showed a sellar tumor compressing the optic chiasm, and hepatic dysfunction with HBV reactivation was identified. Endocrinologic examination established the diagnosis as Cushing disease. After normalization of hepatic dysfunction with antiviral therapy, transsphenoidal tumor removal was performed that resulted in subtotal removal except the right cavernous portion. Steroid hormone supplementation was discontinued after 3 days of administration, and gamma knife therapy was performed for the residual tumor. Eighteen months after the operation, adrenocorticotropic hormone and cortisol values returned to normal. The patient has been free from tumor regrowth and HBV reactivation throughout the postoperative course.Accomplishment of normalization with intrinsic steroid value with minimization of steroid supplementation should be established. Precise operative procedures and careful treatment planning are essential to avoid HBV reactivation in patients with this threatening condition. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  7. Rapid modeling of complex multi-fault ruptures with simplistic models from real-time GPS: Perspectives from the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowell, B.; Melgar, D.

    2017-12-01

    The 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake is one of the most complex earthquakes in recent history, rupturing across at least 10 disparate faults with varying faulting styles, and exhibiting intricate surface deformation patterns. The complexity of this event has motivated the need for multidisciplinary geophysical studies to get at the underlying source physics to better inform earthquake hazards models in the future. However, events like Kaikoura beg the question of how well (or how poorly) such earthquakes can be modeled automatically in real-time and still satisfy the general public and emergency managers. To investigate this question, we perform a retrospective real-time GPS analysis of the Kaikoura earthquake with the G-FAST early warning module. We first perform simple point source models of the earthquake using peak ground displacement scaling and a coseismic offset based centroid moment tensor (CMT) inversion. We predict ground motions based on these point sources as well as simple finite faults determined from source scaling studies, and validate against true recordings of peak ground acceleration and velocity. Secondly, we perform a slip inversion based upon the CMT fault orientations and forward model near-field tsunami maximum expected wave heights to compare against available tide gauge records. We find remarkably good agreement between recorded and predicted ground motions when using a simple fault plane, with the majority of disagreement in ground motions being attributable to local site effects, not earthquake source complexity. Similarly, the near-field tsunami maximum amplitude predictions match tide gauge records well. We conclude that even though our models for the Kaikoura earthquake are devoid of rich source complexities, the CMT driven finite fault is a good enough "average" source and provides useful constraints for rapid forecasting of ground motion and near-field tsunami amplitudes.

  8. Rapid and dynamic arginylation of the leading edge β-actin is required for cell migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlyk, Iuliia; Leu, Nicolae A; Vedula, Pavan; Kurosaka, Satoshi; Kashina, Anna

    2018-04-01

    β-actin plays key roles in cell migration. Our previous work demonstrated that β-actin in migratory non-muscle cells is N-terminally arginylated and that this arginylation is required for normal lamellipodia extension. Here, we examined the function of β-actin arginylation in cell migration. We found that arginylated β-actin is concentrated at the leading edge of lamellipodia and that this enrichment is abolished after serum starvation as well as in contact-inhibited cells in confluent cultures, suggesting that arginylated β-actin at the cell leading edge is coupled to active migration. Arginylated actin levels exhibit dynamic changes in response to cell stimuli, lowered after serum starvation and dramatically elevating within minutes after cell stimulation by readdition of serum or lysophosphatidic acid. These dynamic changes require active translation and are not seen in confluent contact-inhibited cell cultures. Microinjection of arginylated actin antibodies into cells severely and specifically inhibits their migration rates. Together, these data strongly suggest that arginylation of β-actin is a tightly regulated dynamic process that occurs at the leading edge of locomoting cells in response to stimuli and is integral to the signaling network that regulates cell migration. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. A new tool for rapid and automatic estimation of earthquake source parameters and generation of seismic bulletins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zollo, Aldo

    2016-04-01

    RISS S.r.l. is a Spin-off company recently born from the initiative of the research group constituting the Seismology Laboratory of the Department of Physics of the University of Naples Federico II. RISS is an innovative start-up, based on the decade-long experience in earthquake monitoring systems and seismic data analysis of its members and has the major goal to transform the most recent innovations of the scientific research into technological products and prototypes. With this aim, RISS has recently started the development of a new software, which is an elegant solution to manage and analyse seismic data and to create automatic earthquake bulletins. The software has been initially developed to manage data recorded at the ISNet network (Irpinia Seismic Network), which is a network of seismic stations deployed in Southern Apennines along the active fault system responsible for the 1980, November 23, MS 6.9 Irpinia earthquake. The software, however, is fully exportable and can be used to manage data from different networks, with any kind of station geometry or network configuration and is able to provide reliable estimates of earthquake source parameters, whichever is the background seismicity level of the area of interest. Here we present the real-time automated procedures and the analyses performed by the software package, which is essentially a chain of different modules, each of them aimed at the automatic computation of a specific source parameter. The P-wave arrival times are first detected on the real-time streaming of data and then the software performs the phase association and earthquake binding. As soon as an event is automatically detected by the binder, the earthquake location coordinates and the origin time are rapidly estimated, using a probabilistic, non-linear, exploration algorithm. Then, the software is able to automatically provide three different magnitude estimates. First, the local magnitude (Ml) is computed, using the peak-to-peak amplitude

  10. Adult subependymal neural precursors, but not differentiated cells, undergo rapid cathodal migration in the presence of direct current electric fields.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robart Babona-Pilipos

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The existence of neural stem and progenitor cells (together termed neural precursor cells in the adult mammalian brain has sparked great interest in utilizing these cells for regenerative medicine strategies. Endogenous neural precursors within the adult forebrain subependyma can be activated following injury, resulting in their proliferation and migration toward lesion sites where they differentiate into neural cells. The administration of growth factors and immunomodulatory agents following injury augments this activation and has been shown to result in behavioural functional recovery following stroke. METHODS AND FINDINGS: With the goal of enhancing neural precursor migration to facilitate the repair process we report that externally applied direct current electric fields induce rapid and directed cathodal migration of pure populations of undifferentiated adult subependyma-derived neural precursors. Using time-lapse imaging microscopy in vitro we performed an extensive single-cell kinematic analysis demonstrating that this galvanotactic phenomenon is a feature of undifferentiated precursors, and not differentiated phenotypes. Moreover, we have shown that the migratory response of the neural precursors is a direct effect of the electric field and not due to chemotactic gradients. We also identified that epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR signaling plays a role in the galvanotactic response as blocking EGFR significantly attenuates the migratory behaviour. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest direct current electric fields may be implemented in endogenous repair paradigms to promote migration and tissue repair following neurotrauma.

  11. BREATHING FIRE: HOW STELLAR FEEDBACK DRIVES RADIAL MIGRATION, RAPID SIZE FLUCTUATIONS, AND POPULATION GRADIENTS IN LOW-MASS GALAXIES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Badry, Kareem; Geha, Marla; Wetzel, Andrew; Hopkins, Philip F.; Kereš, Dusan; Chan, T. K.; Faucher-Giguère, Claude-André

    2016-01-01

    We examine the effects of stellar feedback and bursty star formation on low-mass galaxies (M star  = 2 × 10 6  − 5 × 10 10 M ⊙ ) using the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) simulations. While previous studies emphasized the impact of feedback on dark matter profiles, we investigate the impact on the stellar component: kinematics, radial migration, size evolution, and population gradients. Feedback-driven outflows/inflows drive significant radial stellar migration over both short and long timescales via two processes: (1) outflowing/infalling gas can remain star-forming, producing young stars that migrate ∼1 kpc within their first 100 Myr, and (2) gas outflows/inflows drive strong fluctuations in the global potential, transferring energy to all stars. These processes produce several dramatic effects. First, galaxies’ effective radii can fluctuate by factors of >2 over ∼200 Myr, and these rapid size fluctuations can account for much of the observed scatter in the radius at fixed M star . Second, the cumulative effects of many outflow/infall episodes steadily heat stellar orbits, causing old stars to migrate outward most strongly. This age-dependent radial migration mixes—and even inverts—intrinsic age and metallicity gradients. Thus, the galactic-archaeology approach of calculating radial star formation histories from stellar populations at z = 0 can be severely biased. These effects are strongest at M star  ≈ 10 7–9.6 M ⊙ , the same regime where feedback most efficiently cores galaxies. Thus, detailed measurements of stellar kinematics in low-mass galaxies can strongly constrain feedback models and test baryonic solutions to small-scale problems in ΛCDM

  12. BREATHING FIRE: HOW STELLAR FEEDBACK DRIVES RADIAL MIGRATION, RAPID SIZE FLUCTUATIONS, AND POPULATION GRADIENTS IN LOW-MASS GALAXIES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El-Badry, Kareem; Geha, Marla [Department of Astronomy, Yale University, New Haven, CT (United States); Wetzel, Andrew; Hopkins, Philip F. [TAPIR, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA USA (United States); Kereš, Dusan; Chan, T. K. [Department of Physics, Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla (United States); Faucher-Giguère, Claude-André, E-mail: kareem.el-badry@yale.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy and CIERA, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL (United States)

    2016-04-01

    We examine the effects of stellar feedback and bursty star formation on low-mass galaxies (M{sub star} = 2 × 10{sup 6} − 5 × 10{sup 10} M{sub ⊙}) using the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) simulations. While previous studies emphasized the impact of feedback on dark matter profiles, we investigate the impact on the stellar component: kinematics, radial migration, size evolution, and population gradients. Feedback-driven outflows/inflows drive significant radial stellar migration over both short and long timescales via two processes: (1) outflowing/infalling gas can remain star-forming, producing young stars that migrate ∼1 kpc within their first 100 Myr, and (2) gas outflows/inflows drive strong fluctuations in the global potential, transferring energy to all stars. These processes produce several dramatic effects. First, galaxies’ effective radii can fluctuate by factors of >2 over ∼200 Myr, and these rapid size fluctuations can account for much of the observed scatter in the radius at fixed M{sub star}. Second, the cumulative effects of many outflow/infall episodes steadily heat stellar orbits, causing old stars to migrate outward most strongly. This age-dependent radial migration mixes—and even inverts—intrinsic age and metallicity gradients. Thus, the galactic-archaeology approach of calculating radial star formation histories from stellar populations at z = 0 can be severely biased. These effects are strongest at M{sub star} ≈ 10{sup 7–9.6} M{sub ⊙}, the same regime where feedback most efficiently cores galaxies. Thus, detailed measurements of stellar kinematics in low-mass galaxies can strongly constrain feedback models and test baryonic solutions to small-scale problems in ΛCDM.

  13. GEODYNAMICS OF NAZCA RIDGE’S OBLIQUE SUBDUCTION AND MIGRATION - IMPLICATIONS FOR TSUNAMI GENERATION ALONG CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PERU: Earthquake and Tsunami of 23 June 2001

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Pararas-Carayannis

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Peru is in a region of considerable geologic and seismic complexity. Thrust faulting along the boundary where the Nazca plate subducts beneath the South American continent has created three distinct seismic zones. The angle of subduction of the Nazca oceanic plate beneath the South American plate is not uniform along the entire segment of the Peru-Chile Trench. Furthermore, subduction is affected by buoyancy forces of the bounding oceanic ridges and fractures - such as the Mendana Fracture Zone (MFZ to the North and the Nazca Ridge to the South. This narrow zone is characterized by shallow earthquakes that can generate destructive tsunamis of varied intensities. The present study examines the significance of Nazca Ridge’s oblique subduction and migration to the seismicity of Central/Southern Peru and to tsunami generation. The large tsunamigenic earthquake of 23 June 2001 is presented as a case study. This event generated a destructive, local tsunami that struck Peru’s southern coasts with waves ranging from 3 to 4.6 meters (10-15 feet and inland inundation that ranged from 1 to 3 km. In order to understand the near and far-field tsunamigenic efficiency of events along Central/Southern Peru and the significance of Nazca Ridge’s oblique subduction, the present study examines further the geologic structure of the region and this quake’s moment tensor analysis, energy release, fault rupture and the spatial distribution of aftershocks. Tsunami source mechanism characteristics for this event are presented, as inferred from seismic intensities, energy releases, fault plane solutions and the use of empirical relationships. The study concludes that the segment of subduction and faulting paralleling the Peru-Chile Trench from about 150 to 180 South, as well as the obliquity of convergent tectonic plate collision in this region, may be the reason for shorter rupture lengths of major earthquakes and the generation of only local destructive tsunamis.

  14. Electrokinetic migration across artificial liquid membranes. New concept for rapid sample preparation of biological fluids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen-Bjergaard, Stig; Rasmussen, Knut Einar

    2006-03-24

    Basic drug substances were transported across a thin artificial organic liquid membrane by the application of 300 V d.c. From a 300 microl aqueous donor compartment (containing 10 mM HCl), the drugs migrated through a 200 microm artificial liquid membrane of 2-nitrophenyl octyl ether immobilized in the pores of a polypropylene hollow fiber, and into a 30 microl aqueous acceptor solution of 10 mM HCl inside the lumen of the hollow fiber. The transport was forced by an electrical potential difference sustained over the liquid membrane, resulting in electrokinetic migration of drug substances from the donor compartment to the acceptor solution. Within 5 min of operation at 300 V, pethidine, nortriptyline, methadone, haloperidol, and loperamide were extracted with recoveries in the range 70-79%, which corresponded to enrichments in the range 7.0-7.9. The chemical composition of the organic liquid membrane strongly affected the permeability, and may serve as an efficient tool for controlling the transport selectivity. Water samples, human plasma, and human urine were successfully processed, and in light of the present report, electrokinetic migration across thin artificial liquid membranes may be an interesting tool for future isolation within chemical analysis.

  15. The Temblor mobile seismic risk app, v2: Rapid and seamless earthquake information to inspire individuals to recognize and reduce their risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, R. S.; Sevilgen, V.; Sevilgen, S.; Kim, A.; Jacobson, D. S.; Lotto, G. C.; Ely, G.; Bhattacharjee, G.; O'Sullivan, J.

    2017-12-01

    Temblor quantifies and personalizes earthquake risk and offers solutions by connecting users with qualified retrofit and insurance providers. Temblor's daily blog on current earthquakes, seismic swarms, eruptions, floods, and landslides makes the science accessible to the public. Temblor is available on iPhone, Android, and mobile web app platforms (http://temblor.net). The app presents both scenario (worst case) and probabilistic (most likely) financial losses for homes and commercial buildings, and estimates the impact of seismic retrofit and insurance on the losses and safety. Temblor's map interface has clickable earthquakes (with source parameters and links) and active faults (name, type, and slip rate) around the world, and layers for liquefaction, landslides, tsunami inundation, and flood zones in the U.S. The app draws from the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model and the 2014 USGS Building Seismic Safety Council ShakeMap scenari0 database. The Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) model is used worldwide, with active faults displayed in 75 countries. The Temblor real-time global catalog is merged from global and national catalogs, with aftershocks discriminated from mainshocks. Earthquake notifications are issued to Temblor users within 30 seconds of their occurrence, with approximate locations and magnitudes that are rapidly refined in the ensuing minutes. Launched in 2015, Temblor has 650,000 unique users, including 250,000 in the U.S. and 110,000 in Chile, as well as 52,000 Facebook followers. All data shown in Temblor is gathered from authoritative or published sources and is synthesized to be intuitive and actionable to the public. Principal data sources include USGS, FEMA, EMSC, GEM Foundation, NOAA, GNS Science (New Zealand), INGV (Italy), PHIVOLCS (Philippines), GSJ (Japan), Taiwan Earthquake Model, EOS Singapore (Southeast Asia), MTA (Turkey), PB2003 (plate boundaries), CICESE (Baja California), California Geological Survey, and 20 other state

  16. Rapid expansion method (REM) for time‐stepping in reverse time migration (RTM)

    KAUST Repository

    Pestana, Reynam C.; Stoffa, Paul L.

    2009-01-01

    an analytical approximation for the Bessel function where we assume that the time step is sufficiently small. From this derivation we find that if we consider only the first two Chebyshev polynomials terms in the rapid expansion method we can obtain the second

  17. RAPID EXTRACTION OF LANDSLIDE AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS AFTER JIUZHAIGOU Ms7.0 EARTHQUAKE BASED ON UAV IMAGES

    OpenAIRE

    Q. S. Jiao; Y. Luo; W. H. Shen; Q. Li; X. Wang

    2018-01-01

    Jiuzhaigou earthquake led to the collapse of the mountains and formed lots of landslides in Jiuzhaigou scenic spot and surrounding roads which caused road blockage and serious ecological damage. Due to the urgency of the rescue, the authors carried unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and entered the disaster area as early as August 9 to obtain the aerial images near the epicenter. On the basis of summarizing the earthquake landslides characteristics in aerial images, by using the object-oriented an...

  18. Study of rapid grain boundary migration in a nanocrystalline Ni thin film

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kacher, Josh; Robertson, I.M.; Nowell, Matt; Knapp, J.; Hattar, Khalid

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → Abnormal growth is distributed randomly in the foil and initiates at different times. → Growth occurs from seemingly uncorrelated regions of the grain boundary. → Growth twins are created during all stages of abnormal grain growth. → Grain growth patterns are qualitatively similar to a vacancy diffusion model. → Grain boundaries and orientations evolve during growth to minimize system energy. - Abstract: Grain boundary migration associated with abnormal grain growth in pulsed-laser deposited Ni was studied in real time by annealing electron transparent films in situ in the transmission electron microscope. The resulting texture evolution and grain boundary types produced were evaluated by ex situ electron backscatter diffraction of interrupted anneals. The combination of these two techniques allowed for the investigation of grain growth rates, grain morphologies, and the evolution of the orientation and grain boundary distributions. Grain boundaries were found to progress in a sporadic, start/stop fashion with no evidence of a characteristic grain growth rate. The orientations of the abnormally growing grains were found to be predominately //ND throughout the annealing process. A high fraction of twin boundaries developed during the annealing process. The intermittent growth from different locations of the grain boundary is discussed in terms of a vacancy diffusion model for grain growth.

  19. Seismogeodesy of the 2014 Mw6.1 Napa earthquake, California: Rapid response and modeling of fast rupture on a dipping strike-slip fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melgar, Diego; Geng, Jianghui; Crowell, Brendan W.; Haase, Jennifer S.; Bock, Yehuda; Hammond, William C.; Allen, Richard M.

    2015-07-01

    Real-time high-rate geodetic data have been shown to be useful for rapid earthquake response systems during medium to large events. The 2014 Mw6.1 Napa, California earthquake is important because it provides an opportunity to study an event at the lower threshold of what can be detected with GPS. We show the results of GPS-only earthquake source products such as peak ground displacement magnitude scaling, centroid moment tensor (CMT) solution, and static slip inversion. We also highlight the retrospective real-time combination of GPS and strong motion data to produce seismogeodetic waveforms that have higher precision and longer period information than GPS-only or seismic-only measurements of ground motion. We show their utility for rapid kinematic slip inversion and conclude that it would have been possible, with current real-time infrastructure, to determine the basic features of the earthquake source. We supplement the analysis with strong motion data collected close to the source to obtain an improved postevent image of the source process. The model reveals unilateral fast propagation of slip to the north of the hypocenter with a delayed onset of shallow slip. The source model suggests that the multiple strands of observed surface rupture are controlled by the shallow soft sediments of Napa Valley and do not necessarily represent the intersection of the main faulting surface and the free surface. We conclude that the main dislocation plane is westward dipping and should intersect the surface to the east, either where the easternmost strand of surface rupture is observed or at the location where the West Napa fault has been mapped in the past.

  20. CISN Display - Reliable Delivery of Real-time Earthquake Information, Including Rapid Notification and ShakeMap to Critical End Users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rico, H.; Hauksson, E.; Thomas, E.; Friberg, P.; Given, D.

    2002-12-01

    The California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) Display is part of a Web-enabled earthquake notification system alerting users in near real-time of seismicity, and also valuable geophysical information following a large earthquake. It will replace the Caltech/USGS Broadcast of Earthquakes (CUBE) and Rapid Earthquake Data Integration (REDI) Display as the principal means of delivering graphical earthquake information to users at emergency operations centers, and other organizations. Features distinguishing the CISN Display from other GUI tools are a state-full client/server relationship, a scalable message format supporting automated hyperlink creation, and a configurable platform-independent client with a GIS mapping tool; supporting the decision-making activities of critical users. The CISN Display is the front-end of a client/server architecture known as the QuakeWatch system. It is comprised of the CISN Display (and other potential clients), message queues, server, server "feeder" modules, and messaging middleware, schema and generators. It is written in Java, making it platform-independent, and offering the latest in Internet technologies. QuakeWatch's object-oriented design allows components to be easily upgraded through a well-defined set of application programming interfaces (APIs). Central to the CISN Display's role as a gateway to other earthquake products is its comprehensive XML-schema. The message model starts with the CUBE message format, but extends it by provisioning additional attributes for currently available products, and those yet to be considered. The supporting metadata in the XML-message provides the data necessary for the client to create a hyperlink and associate it with a unique event ID. Earthquake products deliverable to the CISN Display are ShakeMap, Ground Displacement, Focal Mechanisms, Rapid Notifications, OES Reports, and Earthquake Commentaries. Leveraging the power of the XML-format, the CISN Display provides prompt access to

  1. Clustered and transient earthquake sequences in mid-continents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, M.; Stein, S. A.; Wang, H.; Luo, G.

    2012-12-01

    Earthquakes result from sudden release of strain energy on faults. On plate boundary faults, strain energy is constantly accumulating from steady and relatively rapid relative plate motion, so large earthquakes continue to occur so long as motion continues on the boundary. In contrast, such steady accumulation of stain energy does not occur on faults in mid-continents, because the far-field tectonic loading is not steadily distributed between faults, and because stress perturbations from complex fault interactions and other stress triggers can be significant relative to the slow tectonic stressing. Consequently, mid-continental earthquakes are often temporally clustered and transient, and spatially migrating. This behavior is well illustrated by large earthquakes in North China in the past two millennia, during which no single large earthquakes repeated on the same fault segments, but moment release between large fault systems was complementary. Slow tectonic loading in mid-continents also causes long aftershock sequences. We show that the recent small earthquakes in the Tangshan region of North China are aftershocks of the 1976 Tangshan earthquake (M 7.5), rather than indicators of a new phase of seismic activity in North China, as many fear. Understanding the transient behavior of mid-continental earthquakes has important implications for assessing earthquake hazards. The sequence of large earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) in central US, which includes a cluster of M~7 events in 1811-1812 and perhaps a few similar ones in the past millennium, is likely a transient process, releasing previously accumulated elastic strain on recently activated faults. If so, this earthquake sequence will eventually end. Using simple analysis and numerical modeling, we show that the large NMSZ earthquakes may be ending now or in the near future.

  2. Estradiol attenuates EGF-induced rapid uPAR mobilization and cell migration via the G-protein-coupled receptor 30 in ovarian cancer cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henic, Emir; Noskova, Vera; Høyer-Hansen, Gunilla

    2009-01-01

    : rapid mobilization of uPAR from detergent-resistant domains, increased mRNA, and decreased degradation. G-protein-coupled receptor 30 (GPR30) is a newly identified membrane estrogen receptor (ER).The objective of this study was to explore the effects of 17beta-estradiol (E(2)) on uPAR expression...... for ERalpha, and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Estradiol attenuates the stimulatory effect of EGF on cell migration and uPAR expression. Specifically, E(2) reduces the very rapid increase of detergent extractable uPAR, which occurs within minutes of EGF stimulation and probably represents...... agonist G1, mimicked the effect of E(2) on uPAR expression and cell migration. OVCAR-3 cells express mRNA for GPR30.Estradiol attenuates EGF-induced mobilization of ligated uPAR from detergent-resistant domains and subsequent migration in ovarian cancer cells. The response to various ER ligands indicates...

  3. Proposed model for the high rate of rearrangement and rapid migration observed in some IncA/C plasmid lineages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meinersmann, R J; Lindsey, R L; Bono, J L; Smith, T P; Oakley, B B

    2013-08-01

    IncA/C plasmids are a class of plasmids from the Enterobacteriaceae that are relatively large (49 to >180 kbp), that are readily transferred by conjugation, and that carry multiple antimicrobial resistance genes. Reconstruction of the phylogeny of these plasmids has been difficult because of the high rate of remodeling by recombination-mediated horizontal gene transfer (HGT). We hypothesized that evaluation of nucleotide polymorphisms relative to the rate of HGT would help to develop a clock to show whether anthropic practices have had significant influences on the lineages of the plasmid. A system was developed to rapidly sequence up to 191 known open reading frames from each of 39 recently isolated IncA/C plasmids from a diverse panel of Salmonella enterica and Escherichia coli strains. With these data plus sequences from GenBank, we were able to distinguish six distinct lineages that had extremely low numbers of polymorphisms within each lineage, especially among the largest group designated as group 1. Two regions, each about half the plasmid in size, could be distinguished with a separate lineal pattern. The distribution of group 1 showed that it has migrated extremely rapidly with fewer polymorphisms than can be expected in 2,000 years. Remodeling by frequent HGT was evident, with a pattern that appeared to have the highest rate just upstream of the putative conjugation origin of transfer (oriT). It seems likely that when an IncA/C plasmid is transferred by conjugation there is an opportunity for plasmid remodeling adjacent to the oriT, which was also adjacent to a multiple antimicrobial resistance gene cassette.

  4. Development and utilization of USGS ShakeCast for rapid post-earthquake assessment of critical facilities and infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wald, David J.; Lin, Kuo-wan; Kircher, C.A.; Jaiswal, Kishor; Luco, Nicolas; Turner, L.; Slosky, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    The ShakeCast system is an openly available, near real-time post-earthquake information management system. ShakeCast is widely used by public and private emergency planners and responders, lifeline utility operators and transportation engineers to automatically receive and process ShakeMap products for situational awareness, inspection priority, or damage assessment of their own infrastructure or building portfolios. The success of ShakeCast to date and its broad, critical-user base mandates improved software usability and functionality, including improved engineering-based damage and loss functions. In order to make the software more accessible to novice users—while still utilizing advanced users’ technical and engineering background—we have developed a “ShakeCast Workbook”, a well documented, Excel spreadsheet-based user interface that allows users to input notification and inventory data and export XML files requisite for operating the ShakeCast system. Users will be able to select structure based on a minimum set of user-specified facility (building location, size, height, use, construction age, etc.). “Expert” users will be able to import user-modified structural response properties into facility inventory associated with the HAZUS Advanced Engineering Building Modules (AEBM). The goal of the ShakeCast system is to provide simplified real-time potential impact and inspection metrics (i.e., green, yellow, orange and red priority ratings) to allow users to institute customized earthquake response protocols. Previously, fragilities were approximated using individual ShakeMap intensity measures (IMs, specifically PGA and 0.3 and 1s spectral accelerations) for each facility but we are now performing capacity-spectrum damage state calculations using a more robust characterization of spectral deamnd.We are also developing methods for the direct import of ShakeMap’s multi-period spectra in lieu of the assumed three-domain design spectrum (at 0.3s for

  5. Defeating Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    The 2004 M=9.2 Sumatra earthquake claimed what seemed an unfathomable 228,000 lives, although because of its size, we could at least assure ourselves that it was an extremely rare event. But in the short space of 8 years, the Sumatra quake no longer looks like an anomaly, and it is no longer even the worst disaster of the Century: 80,000 deaths in the 2005 M=7.6 Pakistan quake; 88,000 deaths in the 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China quake; 316,000 deaths in the M=7.0 Haiti, quake. In each case, poor design and construction were unable to withstand the ferocity of the shaken earth. And this was compounded by inadequate rescue, medical care, and shelter. How could the toll continue to mount despite the advances in our understanding of quake risk? The world's population is flowing into megacities, and many of these migration magnets lie astride the plate boundaries. Caught between these opposing demographic and seismic forces are 50 cities of at least 3 million people threatened by large earthquakes, the targets of chance. What we know for certain is that no one will take protective measures unless they are convinced they are at risk. Furnishing that knowledge is the animating principle of the Global Earthquake Model, launched in 2009. At the very least, everyone should be able to learn what his or her risk is. At the very least, our community owes the world an estimate of that risk. So, first and foremost, GEM seeks to raise quake risk awareness. We have no illusions that maps or models raise awareness; instead, earthquakes do. But when a quake strikes, people need a credible place to go to answer the question, how vulnerable am I, and what can I do about it? The Global Earthquake Model is being built with GEM's new open source engine, OpenQuake. GEM is also assembling the global data sets without which we will never improve our understanding of where, how large, and how frequently earthquakes will strike, what impacts they will have, and how those impacts can be lessened by

  6. The Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) Project: Status of SAR products for Earthquakes, Floods, Volcanoes and Groundwater-related Subsidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, S. E.; Yun, S. H.; Hua, H.; Agram, P. S.; Liu, Z.; Sacco, G. F.; Manipon, G.; Linick, J. P.; Fielding, E. J.; Lundgren, P.; Farr, T. G.; Webb, F.; Rosen, P. A.; Simons, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) project for Natural Hazards is focused on rapidly generating high-level geodetic imaging products and placing them in the hands of the solid earth science and local, national, and international natural hazard communities by providing science product generation, exploration, and delivery capabilities at an operational level. Space-based geodetic measurement techniques including Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), differential Global Positioning System, and SAR-based change detection have become critical additions to our toolset for understanding and mapping the damage and deformation caused by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, landslides, and groundwater extraction. Up until recently, processing of these data sets has been handcrafted for each study or event and has not generated products rapidly and reliably enough for response to natural disasters or for timely analysis of large data sets. The ARIA project, a joint venture co-sponsored by the California Institute of Technology and by NASA through the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, has been capturing the knowledge applied to these responses and building it into an automated infrastructure to generate imaging products in near real-time that can improve situational awareness for disaster response. In addition to supporting the growing science and hazard response communities, the ARIA project has developed the capabilities to provide automated imaging and analysis capabilities necessary to keep up with the influx of raw SAR data from geodetic imaging missions such as ESA's Sentinel-1A/B, now operating with repeat intervals as short as 6 days, and the upcoming NASA NISAR mission. We will present the progress and results we have made on automating the analysis of Sentinel-1A/B SAR data for hazard monitoring and response, with emphasis on recent developments and end user engagement in flood extent mapping and deformation time series for both volcano

  7. Induced earthquakes. Sharp increase in central Oklahoma seismicity since 2008 induced by massive wastewater injection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keranen, K M; Weingarten, M; Abers, G A; Bekins, B A; Ge, S

    2014-07-25

    Unconventional oil and gas production provides a rapidly growing energy source; however, high-production states in the United States, such as Oklahoma, face sharply rising numbers of earthquakes. Subsurface pressure data required to unequivocally link earthquakes to wastewater injection are rarely accessible. Here we use seismicity and hydrogeological models to show that fluid migration from high-rate disposal wells in Oklahoma is potentially responsible for the largest swarm. Earthquake hypocenters occur within disposal formations and upper basement, between 2- and 5-kilometer depth. The modeled fluid pressure perturbation propagates throughout the same depth range and tracks earthquakes to distances of 35 kilometers, with a triggering threshold of ~0.07 megapascals. Although thousands of disposal wells operate aseismically, four of the highest-rate wells are capable of inducing 20% of 2008 to 2013 central U.S. seismicity. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  8. Gas and Dust Phenomena of Mega-earthquakes and the Cause

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Z.

    2013-12-01

    A mega-earthquake suddenly releases a large to extremely large amount of kinetic energy within a few tens to two hundreds seconds and over ten to hundreds kilometer distances in the Earth's crust and on ground surface. It also generates seismic waves that can be received globally and co-seismic ground damages such co-seismic ruptures and landslides. However, such vast, dramatic and devastating kinetic actions in the Earth's crustal rocks and on the ground soils cannot be known or predicted by people at few weeks, days, hours, or minutes before they are happening. Although seismologists can develop and use seismometers to report the locations and magnitudes of earthquakes within minutes of their occurrence, they cannot predict earthquakes at present. Therefore, damage earthquakes have caused and would continue to cause huge disasters, fatalities and injuries to our human beings. This problem may indicate that it is necessary to re-examine the cause of mega-earthquakes in addition to the conventional cause of active fault elastic rebounding. In the last ten years, many mega-earthquakes occurred in China and around the Pacific Ocean and caused many casualties to human beings and devastating disasters to environments. The author will give a brief review on the impacts of the mega-earthquakes happened in recent years. He will then present many gas and dust related phenomena associated with the sudden occurrences of these mega earthquakes. They include the 2001 Kunlunshan Earthquake M8.1, 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake M8.0 and the 2010 Yushu Earthquake M7.1 in China, the 2010 Haiti Earthquake M7.0, the 2010 Mexicali Earthquake M7.2, the 2010 Chile Earthquake M8.8, the 2011 Christchurch earthquake M6.3 and the 2011 Japan Earthquake M9.0 around the Pacific Ocean. He will discuss the cause of these gas and dust related phenomena. He will use these phenomena and their common cause to show that the earthquakes were caused the rapid migration and expansion of highly compressed and

  9. Toxoplasma gondii infection shifts dendritic cells into an amoeboid rapid migration mode encompassing podosome dissolution, secretion of TIMP-1, and reduced proteolysis of extracellular matrix.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ólafsson, Einar B; Varas-Godoy, Manuel; Barragan, Antonio

    2018-03-01

    Dendritic cells (DCs) infected by Toxoplasma gondii rapidly acquire a hypermigratory phenotype that promotes systemic parasite dissemination by a "Trojan horse" mechanism in mice. Recent paradigms of leukocyte migration have identified the amoeboid migration mode of DCs as particularly suited for rapid locomotion in extracellular matrix and tissues. Here, we have developed a microscopy-based high-throughput approach to assess motility and matrix degradation by Toxoplasma-challenged murine and human DCs. DCs challenged with T. gondii exhibited dependency on metalloproteinase activity for hypermotility and transmigration but, strikingly, also dramatically reduced pericellular proteolysis. Toxoplasma-challenged DCs up-regulated expression and secretion of tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases-1 (TIMP-1) and their supernatants impaired matrix degradation by naïve DCs and by-stander DCs dose dependently. Gene silencing of TIMP-1 by short hairpin RNA restored matrix degradation activity in Toxoplasma-infected DCs. Additionally, dissolution of podosome structures in parasitised DCs coincided with abrogated matrix degradation. Toxoplasma lysates inhibited pericellular proteolysis in a MyD88-dependent fashion whereas abrogated proteolysis persevered in Toxoplasma-infected MyD88-deficient DCs. This indicated that both TLR/MyD88-dependent and TLR/MyD88-independent signalling pathways mediated podosome dissolution and the abrogated matrix degradation. We report that increased TIMP-1 secretion and cytoskeletal rearrangements encompassing podosome dissolution are features of Toxoplasma-induced hypermigration of DCs with an impact on matrix degradation. Jointly, the data highlight how an obligate intracellular parasite orchestrates key regulatory cellular processes consistent with non-proteolytic amoeboid migration of the vehicle cells that facilitate its dissemination. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Disruption of the novel gene fad104 causes rapid postnatal death and attenuation of cell proliferation, adhesion, spreading and migration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishizuka, Makoto; Kishimoto, Keishi; Kato, Ayumi; Ikawa, Masahito; Okabe, Masaru; Sato, Ryuichiro; Niida, Hiroyuki; Nakanishi, Makoto; Osada, Shigehiro; Imagawa, Masayoshi

    2009-01-01

    The molecular mechanisms at the beginning of adipogenesis remain unknown. Previously, we identified a novel gene, fad104 (factor for adipocyte differentiation 104), transiently expressed at the early stage of adipocyte differentiation. Since the knockdown of the expression of fad104 dramatically repressed adipogenesis, it is clear that fad104 plays important roles in adipocyte differentiation. However, the physiological roles of fad104 are still unknown. In this study, we generated fad104-deficient mice by gene targeting. Although the mice were born in the expected Mendelian ratios, all died within 1 day of birth, suggesting fad104 to be crucial for survival after birth. Furthermore, analyses of mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) prepared from fad104-deficient mice provided new insights into the functions of fad104. Disruption of fad104 inhibited adipocyte differentiation and cell proliferation. In addition, cell adhesion and wound healing assays using fad104-deficient MEFs revealed that loss of fad104 expression caused a reduction in stress fiber formation, and notably delayed cell adhesion, spreading and migration. These results indicate that fad104 is essential for the survival of newborns just after birth and important for cell proliferation, adhesion, spreading and migration

  11. Electrical streaming potential precursors to catastrophic earthquakes in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Qian

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The majority of anomalies in self-potential at 7 stations within 160 km from the epicentre showed a similar pattern of rapid onset and slow decay during and before the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake of 1976. Considering that some of these anomalies associated with episodical spouting from boreholes or the increase in pore pressure in wells, observed anomalies are streaming potential generated by local events of sudden movements and diffusion process of high-pressure fluid in parallel faults. These transient events triggered by tidal forces exhibited a periodic nature and the statistical phenomenon to migrate towards the epicentre about one month before the earthquake. As a result of events, the pore pressure reached its final equilibrium state and was higher than that in the initial state in a large enough section of the fault region. Consequently, local effective shear strength of the material in the fault zone decreased and finally the catastrophic earthquake was induced. Similar phenomena also occurred one month before the M 7.3 Haichen earthquake of 1975. Therefore, a short term earthquake prediction can be made by electrical measurements, which are the kind of geophysical measurements most closely related to pore fluid behaviors of the deep crust.

  12. Earthquake prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, P.L.

    1978-01-01

    The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures

  13. Evidence from a mouse model that epithelial cell migration and mesenchymal-epithelial transition contribute to rapid restoration of uterine tissue integrity during menstruation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cousins, Fiona L; Murray, Alison; Esnal, Arantza; Gibson, Douglas A; Critchley, Hilary O D; Saunders, Philippa T K

    2014-01-01

    In women dynamic changes in uterine tissue architecture occur during each menstrual cycle. Menses, characterised by the shedding of the upper functional layer of the endometrium, is the culmination of a cascade of irreversible changes in tissue function including stromal decidualisation, inflammation and production of degradative enzymes. The molecular mechanisms that contribute to the rapid restoration of tissue homeostasis at time of menses are poorly understood. A modified mouse model of menses was developed to focus on the events occurring within the uterine lining during endometrial shedding/repair. Decidualisation, vaginal bleeding, tissue architecture and cell proliferation were evaluated at 4, 8, 12, and 24 hours after progesterone (P4) withdrawal; mice received a single injection of bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU) 90 mins before culling. Expression of genes implicated in the regulation of mesenchymal to epithelial transition (MET) was determined using a RT2 PCR profiler array, qRTPCR and bioinformatic analysis. Mice exhibited vaginal bleeding between 4 and 12 hours after P4 withdrawal, concomitant with detachment of the decidualised cell mass from the basal portion of the endometrial lining. Immunostaining for BrdU and pan cytokeratin revealed evidence of epithelial cell proliferation and migration. Cells that appeared to be in transition from a mesenchymal to an epithelial cell identity were identified within the stromal compartment. Analysis of mRNAs encoding genes expressed exclusively in the epithelial or stromal compartments, or implicated in MET, revealed dynamic changes in expression, consistent with a role for reprogramming of mesenchymal cells so that they could contribute to re-epithelialisation. These studies have provided novel insights into the cellular processes that contribute to re-epithelialisation post-menses implicating both epithelial cell migration and mesenchymal cell differentiation in restoration of an intact epithelial cell layer. These

  14. SCARDEC: a new technique for the rapid determination of seismic moment magnitude, focal mechanism and source time functions for large earthquakes using body-wave deconvolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallée, M.; Charléty, J.; Ferreira, A. M. G.; Delouis, B.; Vergoz, J.

    2011-01-01

    Accurate and fast magnitude determination for large, shallow earthquakes is of key importance for post-seismic response and tsumami alert purposes. When no local real-time data are available, which is today the case for most subduction earthquakes, the first information comes from teleseismic body waves. Standard body-wave methods give accurate magnitudes for earthquakes up to Mw= 7-7.5. For larger earthquakes, the analysis is more complex, because of the non-validity of the point-source approximation and of the interaction between direct and surface-reflected phases. The latter effect acts as a strong high-pass filter, which complicates the magnitude determination. We here propose an automated deconvolutive approach, which does not impose any simplifying assumptions about the rupture process, thus being well adapted to large earthquakes. We first determine the source duration based on the length of the high frequency (1-3 Hz) signal content. The deconvolution of synthetic double-couple point source signals—depending on the four earthquake parameters strike, dip, rake and depth—from the windowed real data body-wave signals (including P, PcP, PP, SH and ScS waves) gives the apparent source time function (STF). We search the optimal combination of these four parameters that respects the physical features of any STF: causality, positivity and stability of the seismic moment at all stations. Once this combination is retrieved, the integration of the STFs gives directly the moment magnitude. We apply this new approach, referred as the SCARDEC method, to most of the major subduction earthquakes in the period 1990-2010. Magnitude differences between the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) and the SCARDEC method may reach 0.2, but values are found consistent if we take into account that the Global CMT solutions for large, shallow earthquakes suffer from a known trade-off between dip and seismic moment. We show by modelling long-period surface waves of these events that

  15. Assessing fish predation on migrating juvenile steelhead and a retrospective comparison to steelhead survival through the Priest Rapids Hydroelectric Project, Columbia River, Washington, 2009-11

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardiman, Jill M.; Counihan, Timothy D.; Burgess, Dave S.; Simmons, Katrina E.; Holmberg, Glen S.; Rogala, Josh; Polacek, Rochelle

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) have been working with the Public Utility District No. 2 of Grant County, Washington (Grant PUD), to increase their understanding of predator-prey interactions in the Priest Rapids Hydroelectric Project (PRP), Columbia River, Washington. For this study, the PRP is defined as the area approximately 6 kilometers upstream of Wanapum Dam to the Priest Rapids Dam tailrace, 397.1 miles from the mouth of the Columbia River. Past year’s low survival numbers of juvenile steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) through Wanapum and Priest Rapids Dams has prompted Grant PUD, on behalf of the Priest Rapids Coordinating Committee, to focus research efforts on steelhead migration and potential causal mechanisms for low survival. Steelhead passage survival in 2009 was estimated at 0.944 through the Wanapum Development (dam and reservoir) and 0.881 through the Priest Rapids Development and for 2010, steelhead survival was 0.855 for Wanapum Development and 0.904 for Priest Rapids Development. The USGS and WDFW implemented field collection efforts in 2011 for northern pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus oregonensis), smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), and walleye (Sander vitreus, formerly Stizostedion vitreum) and their diets in the PRP. For predator indexing, we collected 948 northern pikeminnow, 237 smallmouth bass, 18 walleye, and two largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). The intent of this study was to provide standardized predation indices within individual reaches of the PRP to discern spatial variability in predation patterns. Furthermore, the results of the 2011 study were compared to results of a concurrent steelhead survival study. Our results do not indicate excessively high predation of Oncorhynchus spp. occurring by northern pikeminnow or smallmouth bass in any particular reach throughout the study area. Although we found Oncorhynchus spp. in the predator diets, the relative

  16. OMG Earthquake! Can Twitter improve earthquake response?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, P. S.; Guy, M.; Ostrum, C.; Horvath, S.; Buckmaster, R. A.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public, text messages, can augment its earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. The goal is to gather near real-time, earthquake-related messages (tweets) and provide geo-located earthquake detections and rough maps of the corresponding felt areas. Twitter and other social Internet technologies are providing the general public with anecdotal earthquake hazard information before scientific information has been published from authoritative sources. People local to an event often publish information within seconds via these technologies. In contrast, depending on the location of the earthquake, scientific alerts take between 2 to 20 minutes. Examining the tweets following the March 30, 2009, M4.3 Morgan Hill earthquake shows it is possible (in some cases) to rapidly detect and map the felt area of an earthquake using Twitter responses. Within a minute of the earthquake, the frequency of “earthquake” tweets rose above the background level of less than 1 per hour to about 150 per minute. Using the tweets submitted in the first minute, a rough map of the felt area can be obtained by plotting the tweet locations. Mapping the tweets from the first six minutes shows observations extending from Monterey to Sacramento, similar to the perceived shaking region mapped by the USGS “Did You Feel It” system. The tweets submitted after the earthquake also provided (very) short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking. Accurately assessing the potential and robustness of a Twitter-based system is difficult because only tweets spanning the previous seven days can be searched, making a historical study impossible. We have, however, been archiving tweets for several months, and it is clear that significant limitations do exist. The main drawback is the lack of quantitative information

  17. Evidence from a mouse model that epithelial cell migration and mesenchymal-epithelial transition contribute to rapid restoration of uterine tissue integrity during menstruation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fiona L Cousins

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In women dynamic changes in uterine tissue architecture occur during each menstrual cycle. Menses, characterised by the shedding of the upper functional layer of the endometrium, is the culmination of a cascade of irreversible changes in tissue function including stromal decidualisation, inflammation and production of degradative enzymes. The molecular mechanisms that contribute to the rapid restoration of tissue homeostasis at time of menses are poorly understood. METHODOLOGY: A modified mouse model of menses was developed to focus on the events occurring within the uterine lining during endometrial shedding/repair. Decidualisation, vaginal bleeding, tissue architecture and cell proliferation were evaluated at 4, 8, 12, and 24 hours after progesterone (P4 withdrawal; mice received a single injection of bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU 90 mins before culling. Expression of genes implicated in the regulation of mesenchymal to epithelial transition (MET was determined using a RT2 PCR profiler array, qRTPCR and bioinformatic analysis. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Mice exhibited vaginal bleeding between 4 and 12 hours after P4 withdrawal, concomitant with detachment of the decidualised cell mass from the basal portion of the endometrial lining. Immunostaining for BrdU and pan cytokeratin revealed evidence of epithelial cell proliferation and migration. Cells that appeared to be in transition from a mesenchymal to an epithelial cell identity were identified within the stromal compartment. Analysis of mRNAs encoding genes expressed exclusively in the epithelial or stromal compartments, or implicated in MET, revealed dynamic changes in expression, consistent with a role for reprogramming of mesenchymal cells so that they could contribute to re-epithelialisation. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These studies have provided novel insights into the cellular processes that contribute to re-epithelialisation post-menses implicating both epithelial cell migration and

  18. Chance findings about early holocene tidal marshes of Grays Harbor, Washington, in relation to rapidly rising seas and great subduction earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phipps, James B.; Hemphill-Haley, Eileen; Atwater, Brian F.

    2015-06-18

    Tidal marshes commonly build upward apace with gradual rise in the level of the sea. It is expected, however, that few tidal marshes will keep up with accelerated sea-level rise later in this century. Tidal marshes have been drowned, moreover, after subsiding during earthquakes.

  19. Earthquake swarms reveal submarine magma unrest induced by distant mega-earthquakes: Andaman Sea region

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Špičák, Aleš; Vaněk, Jiří

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 116, February (2016), s. 155-163 ISSN 1367-9120 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : earthquake swarms * magma migration * submarine volcanic arc Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.335, year: 2016

  20. Exposure to rapid succession disasters: a study of residents at the epicenter of the Chilean Bío Bío earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfin, Dana Rose; Silver, Roxane Cohen; Ugalde, Francisco Javier; Linn, Heiko; Inostroza, Manuel

    2014-08-01

    We examined cumulative and specific types of trauma exposure as predictors of distress and impairment following a multifaceted community disaster. Approximately 3 months after the 8.8 magnitude earthquake, tsunami, and subsequent looting in Bío Bío, Chile, face-to-face interviews were conducted in 5 provinces closest to the epicenter. Participants (N = 1,000) were randomly selected using military topographic records and census data. Demographics, exposure to discrete components of the disaster (earthquake, tsunami, looting), and exposure to secondary stressors (property loss, injury, death) were evaluated as predictors of posttraumatic stress (PTS) symptoms, global distress, and functional impairment. Prevalence of probable posttraumatic stress disorder was 18.95%. In adjusted models examining specificity of exposure to discrete disaster components and secondary stressors, PTS symptoms and global distress were associated with earthquake intensity, tsunami exposure, and injury to self/close other. Increased functional impairment correlated with earthquake intensity and injury to self/close other. In adjusted models, cumulative exposure to secondary stressors correlated with PTS symptoms, global distress, and functional impairment; cumulative count of exposure to discrete disaster components did not. Exploratory analyses indicated that, beyond direct exposure, appraising the tsunami and looting as the worst components of the disaster correlated with greater media exposure and higher socioeconomic status, respectively. Overall, threat to life indicators correlated with worse outcomes. As failure of government tsunami warnings resulted in many deaths, findings suggest disasters compounded by human errors may be particularly distressing. We advance theory regarding cumulative and specific trauma exposure as predictors of postdisaster distress and provide information for enhancing targeted postdisaster interventions. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  1. Analog earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofmann, R.B.

    1995-01-01

    Analogs are used to understand complex or poorly understood phenomena for which little data may be available at the actual repository site. Earthquakes are complex phenomena, and they can have a large number of effects on the natural system, as well as on engineered structures. Instrumental data close to the source of large earthquakes are rarely obtained. The rare events for which measurements are available may be used, with modfications, as analogs for potential large earthquakes at sites where no earthquake data are available. In the following, several examples of nuclear reactor and liquified natural gas facility siting are discussed. A potential use of analog earthquakes is proposed for a high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository

  2. Radon observation for earthquake prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wakita, Hiroshi [Tokyo Univ. (Japan)

    1998-12-31

    Systematic observation of groundwater radon for the purpose of earthquake prediction began in Japan in late 1973. Continuous observations are conducted at fixed stations using deep wells and springs. During the observation period, significant precursory changes including the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai (M7.0) earthquake as well as numerous coseismic changes were observed. At the time of the 1995 Kobe (M7.2) earthquake, significant changes in chemical components, including radon dissolved in groundwater, were observed near the epicentral region. Precursory changes are presumably caused by permeability changes due to micro-fracturing in basement rock or migration of water from different sources during the preparation stage of earthquakes. Coseismic changes may be caused by seismic shaking and by changes in regional stress. Significant drops of radon concentration in groundwater have been observed after earthquakes at the KSM site. The occurrence of such drops appears to be time-dependent, and possibly reflects changes in the regional stress state of the observation area. The absence of radon drops seems to be correlated with periods of reduced regional seismic activity. Experience accumulated over the two past decades allows us to reach some conclusions: 1) changes in groundwater radon do occur prior to large earthquakes; 2) some sites are particularly sensitive to earthquake occurrence; and 3) the sensitivity changes over time. (author)

  3. Indoor radon and earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saghatelyan, E.; Petrosyan, L.; Aghbalyan, Yu.; Baburyan, M.; Araratyan, L.

    2004-01-01

    For the first time on the basis of the Spitak earthquake of December 1988 (Armenia, December 1988) experience it is found out that the earthquake causes intensive and prolonged radon splashes which, rapidly dispersing in the open space of close-to-earth atmosphere, are contrastingly displayed in covered premises (dwellings, schools, kindergartens) even if they are at considerable distance from the earthquake epicenter, and this multiplies the radiation influence on the population. The interval of splashes includes the period from the first fore-shock to the last after-shock, i.e. several months. The area affected by radiation is larger vs. Armenia's territory. The scale of this impact on population is 12 times higher than the number of people injured in Spitak, Leninakan and other settlements (toll of injured - 25 000 people, radiation-induced diseases in people - over 300 000). The influence of radiation directly correlates with the earthquake force. Such a conclusion is underpinned by indoor radon monitoring data for Yerevan since 1987 (120 km from epicenter) 5450 measurements and multivariate analysis with identification of cause-and-effect linkages between geo dynamics of indoor radon under stable and conditions of Earth crust, behavior of radon in different geological mediums during earthquakes, levels of room radon concentrations and effective equivalent dose of radiation impact of radiation dose on health and statistical data on public health provided by the Ministry of Health. The following hitherto unexplained facts can be considered as consequences of prolonged radiation influence on human organism: long-lasting state of apathy and indifference typical of the population of Armenia during the period of more than a year after the earthquake, prevalence of malignant cancer forms in disaster zones, dominating lung cancer and so on. All urban territories of seismically active regions are exposed to the threat of natural earthquake-provoked radiation influence

  4. Rapid processing of data based on high-performance algorithms for solving inverse problems and 3D-simulation of the tsunami and earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marinin, I. V.; Kabanikhin, S. I.; Krivorotko, O. I.; Karas, A.; Khidasheli, D. G.

    2012-04-01

    We consider new techniques and methods for earthquake and tsunami related problems, particularly - inverse problems for the determination of tsunami source parameters, numerical simulation of long wave propagation in soil and water and tsunami risk estimations. In addition, we will touch upon the issue of database management and destruction scenario visualization. New approaches and strategies, as well as mathematical tools and software are to be shown. The long joint investigations by researchers of the Institute of Mathematical Geophysics and Computational Mathematics SB RAS and specialists from WAPMERR and Informap have produced special theoretical approaches, numerical methods, and software tsunami and earthquake modeling (modeling of propagation and run-up of tsunami waves on coastal areas), visualization, risk estimation of tsunami, and earthquakes. Algorithms are developed for the operational definition of the origin and forms of the tsunami source. The system TSS numerically simulates the source of tsunami and/or earthquakes and includes the possibility to solve the direct and the inverse problem. It becomes possible to involve advanced mathematical results to improve models and to increase the resolution of inverse problems. Via TSS one can construct maps of risks, the online scenario of disasters, estimation of potential damage to buildings and roads. One of the main tools for the numerical modeling is the finite volume method (FVM), which allows us to achieve stability with respect to possible input errors, as well as to achieve optimum computing speed. Our approach to the inverse problem of tsunami and earthquake determination is based on recent theoretical results concerning the Dirichlet problem for the wave equation. This problem is intrinsically ill-posed. We use the optimization approach to solve this problem and SVD-analysis to estimate the degree of ill-posedness and to find the quasi-solution. The software system we developed is intended to

  5. Testing earthquake source inversion methodologies

    KAUST Repository

    Page, Morgan T.

    2011-01-01

    Source Inversion Validation Workshop; Palm Springs, California, 11-12 September 2010; Nowadays earthquake source inversions are routinely performed after large earthquakes and represent a key connection between recorded seismic and geodetic data and the complex rupture process at depth. The resulting earthquake source models quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of ruptures. They are also used to provide a rapid assessment of the severity of an earthquake and to estimate losses. However, because of uncertainties in the data, assumed fault geometry and velocity structure, and chosen rupture parameterization, it is not clear which features of these source models are robust. Improved understanding of the uncertainty and reliability of earthquake source inversions will allow the scientific community to use the robust features of kinematic inversions to more thoroughly investigate the complexity of the rupture process and to better constrain other earthquakerelated computations, such as ground motion simulations and static stress change calculations.

  6. Rapid exposure and loss estimates for the May 12, 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake provided by the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, P.S.; Wald, D.J.; Allen, T.I.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Porter, K.A.; Hearne, M.G.

    2008-01-01

    One half-hour after the May 12th Mw 7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system distributed an automatically generated alert stating that 1.2 million people were exposed to severe-to-extreme shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII or greater). It was immediately clear that a large-scale disaster had occurred. These alerts were widely distributed and referenced by the major media outlets and used by governments, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses. The PAGER alerts and Web pages included predictive ShakeMaps showing estimates of ground shaking, maps of population density, and a list of estimated intensities at impacted cities. Manual, revised alerts were issued in the following hours that included the dimensions of the fault rupture. Within a half-day, PAGER’s estimates of the population exposed to strong shaking levels stabilized at 5.2 million people. A coordinated research effort is underway to extend PAGER’s capability to include estimates of the number of casualties. We are pursuing loss models that will allow PAGER the flexibility to use detailed inventory and engineering results in regions where these data are available while also calculating loss estimates in regions where little is known about the type and strength of the built infrastructure. Prototype PAGER fatality estimates are currently implemented and can be manually triggered. In the hours following the Wenchuan earthquake, these models predicted fatalities in the tens of thousands.

  7. Population, migration and urbanization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-06-01

    Despite recent estimates that natural increase is becoming a more important component of urban growth than rural urban transfer (excess of inmigrants over outmigrants), the share of migration in the total population growth has been consistently increasing in both developed and developing countries. From a demographic perspective, the migration process involves 3 elements: an area of origin which the mover leaves and where he or she is considered an outmigrant; the destination or place of inmigration; and the period over which migration is measured. The 2 basic types of migration are internal and international. Internal migration consists of rural to urban migration, urban to urban migration, rural to rural migration, and urban to rural migration. Among these 4 types of migration various patterns or processes are followed. Migration may be direct when the migrant moves directly from the village to the city and stays there permanently. It can be circular migration, meaning that the migrant moves to the city when it is not planting season and returns to the village when he is needed on the farm. In stage migration the migrant makes a series of moves, each to a city closer to the largest or fastest growing city. Temporary migration may be 1 time or cyclical. The most dominant pattern of internal migration is rural urban. The contribution of migration to urbanization is evident. For example, the rapid urbanization and increase in urban growth from 1960-70 in the Republic of Korea can be attributed to net migration. In Asia the largest component of the population movement consists of individuals and groups moving from 1 rural location to another. Recently, because urban centers could no longer absorb the growing number of migrants from other places, there has been increased interest in the urban to rural population redistribution. This reverse migration also has come about due to slower rates of employment growth in the urban centers and improved economic opportunities

  8. Earthquake number forecasts testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Yan Y.

    2017-10-01

    and kurtosis both tend to zero for large earthquake rates: for the Gaussian law, these values are identically zero. A calculation of the NBD skewness and kurtosis levels based on the values of the first two statistical moments of the distribution, shows rapid increase of these upper moments levels. However, the observed catalogue values of skewness and kurtosis are rising even faster. This means that for small time intervals, the earthquake number distribution is even more heavy-tailed than the NBD predicts. Therefore for small time intervals, we propose using empirical number distributions appropriately smoothed for testing forecasted earthquake numbers.

  9. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes

    OpenAIRE

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

    2016-01-01

    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of th...

  10. Fleeing to Fault Zones: Incorporating Syrian Refugees into Earthquake Risk Analysis along the East Anatolian and Dead Sea Rift Fault Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, B.; Paradise, T. R.

    2016-12-01

    The influx of millions of Syrian refugees into Turkey has rapidly changed the population distribution along the Dead Sea Rift and East Anatolian Fault zones. In contrast to other countries in the Middle East where refugees are accommodated in camp environments, the majority of displaced individuals in Turkey are integrated into cities, towns, and villages—placing stress on urban settings and increasing potential exposure to strong shaking. Yet, displaced populations are not traditionally captured in data sources used in earthquake risk analysis or loss estimations. Accordingly, we present a district-level analysis assessing the spatial overlap of earthquake hazards and refugee locations in southeastern Turkey to determine how migration patterns are altering seismic risk in the region. Using migration estimates from the U.S. Humanitarian Information Unit, we create three district-level population scenarios that combine official population statistics, refugee camp populations, and low, median, and high bounds for integrated refugee populations. We perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis alongside these population scenarios to map spatial variations in seismic risk between 2011 and late 2015. Our results show a significant relative southward increase of seismic risk for this period due to refugee migration. Additionally, we calculate earthquake fatalities for simulated earthquakes using a semi-empirical loss estimation technique to determine degree of under-estimation resulting from forgoing migration data in loss modeling. We find that including refugee populations increased casualties by 11-12% using median population estimates, and upwards of 20% using high population estimates. These results communicate the ongoing importance of placing environmental hazards in their appropriate regional and temporal context which unites physical, political, cultural, and socio-economic landscapes. Keywords: Earthquakes, Hazards, Loss-Estimation, Syrian Crisis, Migration

  11. Rapid changes in the size of different functional organ and muscle groups during refueling in a long-distance migrating shorebird

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Piersma, T; Gudmundsson, GA; Lilliendahl, K; Gudmundsson, Gudmundur A.

    1999-01-01

    The adaptive value of size changes in different organ and muscle groups was studied in red knots (Calidris canutus islandica) in relation to their migration. Birds were sampled on five occasions: at arrival in Iceland in May 1994, two times during subsequent refueling, at departure toward, and on

  12. Baseline corticosterone peaks in shorebirds with maximal energy stores for migration : A general preparatory mechanism for rapid behavioral and metabolic transitions?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Piersma, T; Reneerkens, J; Ramenofsky, M

    2000-01-01

    In captive red knots (Calidris canutus, Scolopacidae) showing a regulated body mass increase of 50% related to their migration from temperate staging sites to tundra:breeding grounds, plasma corticosterone concentrations increased from less than 10 ng.ml(-1) to levels as high-as 30 ng.ml(-1) when

  13. Earthquake Facts

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... North Dakota, and Wisconsin. The core of the earth was the first internal structural element to be identified. In 1906 R.D. Oldham discovered it from his studies of earthquake records. The inner core is solid, and the outer core is liquid and so does not transmit ...

  14. Understanding Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Amanda; Gray, Ron

    2018-01-01

    December 26, 2004 was one of the deadliest days in modern history, when a 9.3 magnitude earthquake--the third largest ever recorded--struck off the coast of Sumatra in Indonesia (National Centers for Environmental Information 2014). The massive quake lasted at least 10 minutes and devastated the Indian Ocean. The quake displaced an estimated…

  15. A smartphone application for earthquakes that matter!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, Rémy; Etivant, Caroline; Roussel, Fréderic; Mazet-Roux, Gilles; Steed, Robert

    2014-05-01

    Smartphone applications have swiftly become one of the most popular tools for rapid reception of earthquake information for the public, some of them having been downloaded more than 1 million times! The advantages are obvious: wherever someone's own location is, they can be automatically informed when an earthquake has struck. Just by setting a magnitude threshold and an area of interest, there is no longer the need to browse the internet as the information reaches you automatically and instantaneously! One question remains: are the provided earthquake notifications always relevant for the public? What are the earthquakes that really matters to laypeople? One clue may be derived from some newspaper reports that show that a while after damaging earthquakes many eyewitnesses scrap the application they installed just after the mainshock. Why? Because either the magnitude threshold is set too high and many felt earthquakes are missed, or it is set too low and the majority of the notifications are related to unfelt earthquakes thereby only increasing anxiety among the population at each new update. Felt and damaging earthquakes are the ones that matter the most for the public (and authorities). They are the ones of societal importance even when of small magnitude. A smartphone application developed by EMSC (Euro-Med Seismological Centre) with the financial support of the Fondation MAIF aims at providing suitable notifications for earthquakes by collating different information threads covering tsunamigenic, potentially damaging and felt earthquakes. Tsunamigenic earthquakes are considered here to be those ones that are the subject of alert or information messages from the PTWC (Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre). While potentially damaging earthquakes are identified through an automated system called EQIA (Earthquake Qualitative Impact Assessment) developed and operated at EMSC. This rapidly assesses earthquake impact by comparing the population exposed to each expected

  16. Twitter earthquake detection: Earthquake monitoring in a social world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, Paul S.; Bowden, Daniel C.; Guy, Michelle R.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets) with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word "earthquake" clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

  17. Long Period Earthquakes Beneath California's Young and Restless Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitt, A. M.; Dawson, P. B.; Shelly, D. R.; Hill, D. P.; Mangan, M.

    2013-12-01

    The newly established USGS California Volcano Observatory has the broad responsibility of monitoring and assessing hazards at California's potentially threatening volcanoes, most notably Mount Shasta, Medicine Lake, Clear Lake Volcanic Field, and Lassen Volcanic Center in northern California; and Long Valley Caldera, Mammoth Mountain, and Mono-Inyo Craters in east-central California. Volcanic eruptions occur in California about as frequently as the largest San Andreas Fault Zone earthquakes-more than ten eruptions have occurred in the last 1,000 years, most recently at Lassen Peak (1666 C.E. and 1914-1917 C.E.) and Mono-Inyo Craters (c. 1700 C.E.). The Long Valley region (Long Valley caldera and Mammoth Mountain) underwent several episodes of heightened unrest over the last three decades, including intense swarms of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes, rapid caldera uplift, and hazardous CO2 emissions. Both Medicine Lake and Lassen are subsiding at appreciable rates, and along with Clear Lake, Long Valley Caldera, and Mammoth Mountain, sporadically experience long period (LP) earthquakes related to migration of magmatic or hydrothermal fluids. Worldwide, the last two decades have shown the importance of tracking LP earthquakes beneath young volcanic systems, as they often provide indication of impending unrest or eruption. Herein we document the occurrence of LP earthquakes at several of California's young volcanoes, updating a previous study published in Pitt et al., 2002, SRL. All events were detected and located using data from stations within the Northern California Seismic Network (NCSN). Event detection was spatially and temporally uneven across the NCSN in the 1980s and 1990s, but additional stations, adoption of the Earthworm processing system, and heightened vigilance by seismologists have improved the catalog over the last decade. LP earthquakes are now relatively well-recorded under Lassen (~150 events since 2000), Clear Lake (~60 events), Mammoth Mountain

  18. Vrancea earthquakes. Courses for specific actions to mitigate seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marmureanu, Alexandru

    2005-01-01

    Earthquakes in the Carpathian-Pannonian region are confined to the crust, except the Vrancea zone, where earthquakes with focal depth down to 200 Km occur. For example, the ruptured area migrated from 150 km to 180 km (November 10,1940, M w = 7.7) from 90 km to 110 km (March 4, 1977, M w 7.4), from 130 km to 150 km (August 30, 1986, M w = 7.1) and from 70 km to 90 km (May 30, 1990, M w = 6.9) depth. The depth interval between 110 km and 130 km remains not ruptured since 1802, October 26, when it was the strongest earthquake occurred in this part of Central Europe. The magnitude is assumed to be M w = 7.9 - 8.0 and this depth interval is a natural candidate for the next strong Vrancea event. While no country in the world is entirely safe, the lack of capacity to limit the impact of seismic hazards remains a major burden for all countries and while the world has witnessed an exponential increase in human and material losses due to natural disasters given by earthquakes, there is a need to reverse trends in seismic risk mitigation to future events. Main courses for specific actions to mitigate the seismic risk given by strong deep Vrancea earthquakes should be considered as key for development actions: - Early warning system for industrial facilities. Early warning is more than a technological instrument to detect, monitor and submit warnings. It should become part of a management information system for decision-making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and part of national and local strategies and programmers for risk mitigation; - Prediction program of Vrancea strong earthquakes of short and long term; - Hazard seismic map of Romania. The wrong assessment of the seismic hazard can lead to dramatic situations as those from Bucharest or Kobe. Before the 1977 Vrancea earthquake, the city of Bucharest was designed to intensity I = VII (MMI) and the real intensity was I = IX1/2-X (MMI); - Seismic microzonation of large populated

  19. Earthquake data base for Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rizescu, M.; Ghica, D.; Grecu, B.; Popa, M.; Borcia, I. S.

    2002-01-01

    A new earthquake database for Romania is being constructed, comprising complete earthquake information and being up-to-date, user-friendly and rapidly accessible. One main component of the database consists from the catalog of earthquakes occurred in Romania since 984 up to present. The catalog contains information related to locations and other source parameters, when available, and links to waveforms of important earthquakes. The other very important component is the 'strong motion database', developed for strong intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquakes where instrumental data were recorded. Different parameters to characterize strong motion properties as: effective peak acceleration, effective peak velocity, corner periods T c and T d , global response spectrum based intensities were computed and recorded into this database. Also, information on the recording seismic stations as: maps giving their positioning, photographs of the instruments and site conditions ('free-field or on buildings) are included. By the huge volume and quality of gathered data, also by its friendly user interface, the Romania earthquake data base provides a very useful tool for geosciences and civil engineering in their effort towards reducing seismic risk in Romania. (authors)

  20. The Observation of Fault Finiteness and Rapid Velocity Variation in Pnl Waveforms for the Mw 6.5, San Simeon, California Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konca, A. O.; Ji, C.; Helmberger, D. V.

    2004-12-01

    We observed the effect of the fault finiteness in the Pnl waveforms from regional distances (4° to 12° ) for the Mw6.5 San Simeon Earthquake on 22 December 2003. We aimed to include more of the high frequencies (2 seconds and longer periods) than the studies that use regional data for focal solutions (5 to 8 seconds and longer periods). We calculated 1-D synthetic seismograms for the Pn_l portion for both a point source, and a finite fault solution. The comparison of the point source and finite fault waveforms with data show that the first several seconds of the point source synthetics have considerably higher amplitude than the data, while finite fault does not have a similar problem. This can be explained by reversely polarized depth phases overlapping with the P waves from the later portion of the fault, and causing smaller amplitudes for the beginning portion of the seismogram. This is clearly a finite fault phenomenon; therefore, can not be explained by point source calculations. Moreover, the point source synthetics, which are calculated with a focal solution from a long period regional inversion, are overestimating the amplitude by three to four times relative to the data amplitude, while finite fault waveforms have the similar amplitudes to the data. Hence, a moment estimation based only on the point source solution of the regional data could have been wrong by half of magnitude. We have also calculated the shifts of synthetics relative to data to fit the seismograms. Our results reveal that the paths from Central California to the south are faster than to the paths to the east and north. The P wave arrival to the TUC station in Arizona is 4 seconds earlier than the predicted Southern California model, while most stations to the east are delayed around 1 second. The observed higher uppermost mantle velocities to the south are consistent with some recent tomographic models. Synthetics generated with these models significantly improves the fits and the

  1. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

    2016-07-15

    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  2. Earthquake Early Warning Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Pei-Yang Lin

    2011-01-01

    Because of Taiwan’s unique geographical environment, earthquake disasters occur frequently in Taiwan. The Central Weather Bureau collated earthquake data from between 1901 and 2006 (Central Weather Bureau, 2007) and found that 97 earthquakes had occurred, of which, 52 resulted in casualties. The 921 Chichi Earthquake had the most profound impact. Because earthquakes have instant destructive power and current scientific technologies cannot provide precise early warnings in advance, earthquake ...

  3. Twitter earthquake detection: earthquake monitoring in a social world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel C. Bowden

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word “earthquake” clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

  4. Frictional melt generated by the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake and its faulting mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, H.; Li, H.; Si, J.; Sun, Z.; Zhang, L.; He, X.

    2017-12-01

    earthquakes vigorous fluid influx within fault zone, likely dissipating the frictional heat and resulting in rapid temperature drop, may facilitate the solidification of melt and hamper the aftermost fault slip. Meanwhlie, the high temperature fluid-rock interaction may play an important role in the chemical elements migrating in fault zones.

  5. Indonesia's migration transition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hugo, G

    1995-01-01

    This article describes population movements in Indonesia in the context of rapid and marked social and economic change. Foreign investment in Indonesia is increasing, and global mass media is available to many households. Agriculture is being commercialized, and structural shifts are occurring in the economy. Educational levels are increasing, and women's role and status are shifting. Population migration has increased over the decades, both short and long distance, permanent and temporary, legal and illegal, and migration to and between urban areas. This article focuses specifically on rural-to-urban migration and international migration. Population settlements are dense in the agriculturally rich inner areas of Java, Bali, and Madura. Although the rate of growth of the gross domestic product was 6.8% annually during 1969-94, the World Bank ranked Indonesia as a low-income economy in 1992 because of the large population size. Income per capita is US $670. Indonesia is becoming a large exporter of labor to the Middle East, particularly women. The predominance of women as overseas contract workers is changing women's role and status in the family and is controversial due to the cases of mistreatment. Malaysia's high economic growth rate of over 8% per year means an additional 1.3 million foreign workers and technicians are needed. During the 1980s urban growth increased at a very rapid rate. Urban growth tended to occur along corridors and major transportation routes around urban areas. It is posited that most of the urban growth is due to rural-to-urban migration. Data limitations prevent an exact determination of the extent of rural-to-urban migration. More women are estimated to be involved in movements to cities during the 1980s compared to the 1970s. Recruiters and middlemen have played an important role in rural-to-urban migration and international migration.

  6. Stress triggering and the Canterbury earthquake sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steacy, Sandy; Jiménez, Abigail; Holden, Caroline

    2014-01-01

    The Canterbury earthquake sequence, which includes the devastating Christchurch event of 2011 February, has to date led to losses of around 40 billion NZ dollars. The location and severity of the earthquakes was a surprise to most inhabitants as the seismic hazard model was dominated by an expected Mw > 8 earthquake on the Alpine fault and an Mw 7.5 earthquake on the Porters Pass fault, 150 and 80 km to the west of Christchurch. The sequence to date has included an Mw = 7.1 earthquake and 3 Mw ≥ 5.9 events which migrated from west to east. Here we investigate whether the later events are consistent with stress triggering and whether a simple stress map produced shortly after the first earthquake would have accurately indicated the regions where the subsequent activity occurred. We find that 100 per cent of M > 5.5 earthquakes occurred in positive stress areas computed using a slip model for the first event that was available within 10 d of its occurrence. We further find that the stress changes at the starting points of major slip patches of post-Darfield main events are consistent with triggering although this is not always true at the hypocentral locations. Our results suggest that Coulomb stress changes contributed to the evolution of the Canterbury sequence and we note additional areas of increased stress in the Christchurch region and on the Porters Pass fault.

  7. Application of τc*Pd in earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Po-Lun; Lin, Ting-Li; Wu, Yih-Min

    2015-03-01

    Rapid assessment of damage potential and size of an earthquake at the station is highly demanded for onsite earthquake early warning. We study the application of τc*Pd for its estimation on the earthquake size using 123 events recorded by the borehole stations of KiK-net in Japan. The new type of earthquake size determined by τc*Pd is more related to the damage potential. We find that τc*Pd provides another parameter to measure the size of earthquake and the threshold to warn strong ground motion.

  8. Instruction system upon occurrence of earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inagaki, Masakatsu; Morikawa, Matsuo; Suzuki, Satoshi; Fukushi, Naomi.

    1987-01-01

    Purpose: To enable rapid re-starting of a nuclear reactor after earthquakes by informing various properties of encountered earthquake to operators and properly displaying the state of damages in comparison with designed standard values of facilities. Constitution: Even in a case where the maximum accelerations due to the movements of earthquakes encountered exceed designed standard values, it may be considered such a case that equipments still remain intact depending on the wave components of the seismic movements and the vibration properties inherent to the equipments. Taking notice of the fact, the instruction device comprises a system that indicates the relationship between the seismic waveforms of earthquakes being encountered and the scram setting values, a system for indicating the comparison between the floor response spectrum of the seismic waveforms of the encountered earthquakes and the designed floor response spectrum used for the design of the equipments and a system for indicating those equipments requiring inspection after the earthquakes. Accordingly, it is possible to improve the operationability upon scram of a nuclear power plant undergoing earthquakes and improve the power saving and safety by clearly defining the inspection portion after the earthquakes. (Kawakami, Y.)

  9. Seasonal Modulation of Earthquake Swarm Activity Near Maupin, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braunmiller, J.; Nabelek, J.; Trehu, A. M.

    2012-12-01

    Between December 2006 and November 2011, the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN) reported 464 earthquakes in a swarm about 60 km east-southeast of Mt. Hood near the town of Maupin, Oregon. Relocation of forty-five MD≥2.5 earthquakes and regional moment tensor analysis of nine 3.3≤Mw≤3.9 earthquakes reveals a north-northwest trending, less than 1 km2 sized active fault patch on a 70° west dipping fault. At about 17 km depth, the swarm occurred at or close to the bottom of the seismogenic crust. The swarm's cumulative seismic moment release, equivalent to an Mw=4.4 earthquake, is not dominated by a single shock; it is rather mainly due to 20 MD≥3.0 events, which occurred throughout the swarm. The swarm started at the southern end and, during the first 18 months of activity, migrated to the northwest at a rate of about 1-2 m/d until reaching its northern terminus. A 10° fault bend, inferred from locations and fault plane solutions, acted as geometrical barrier that temporarily halted event migration in mid-2007 before continuing north in early 2008. The slow event migration points to a pore pressure diffusion process suggesting the swarm onset was triggered by fluid inflow into the fault zone. At 17 km depth, triggering by meteoritic water seems unlikely for a normal crustal permeability. The double couple source mechanisms preclude a magmatic intrusion at the depth of the earthquakes. However, fluids (or gases) associated with a deeper, though undocumented, magma injection beneath the Cascade Mountains, could trigger seismicity in a pre-stressed region when they have migrated upward and reached the seismogenic crust. Superimposed on overall swarm evolution, we found a statistically significant annual seismicity variation, which is likely surface driven. The annual seismicity peak during spring (March-May) coincides with the maximum snow load on the near-by Cascades. The load corresponds to a surface pressure variation of about 6 kPa, which likely

  10. Toward real-time regional earthquake simulation of Taiwan earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Liu, Q.; Tromp, J.; Komatitsch, D.; Liang, W.; Huang, B.

    2013-12-01

    We developed a Real-time Online earthquake Simulation system (ROS) to simulate regional earthquakes in Taiwan. The ROS uses a centroid moment tensor solution of seismic events from a Real-time Moment Tensor monitoring system (RMT), which provides all the point source parameters including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism within 2 minutes after the occurrence of an earthquake. Then, all of the source parameters are automatically forwarded to the ROS to perform an earthquake simulation, which is based on a spectral-element method (SEM). We have improved SEM mesh quality by introducing a thin high-resolution mesh layer near the surface to accommodate steep and rapidly varying topography. The mesh for the shallow sedimentary basin is adjusted to reflect its complex geometry and sharp lateral velocity contrasts. The grid resolution at the surface is about 545 m, which is sufficient to resolve topography and tomography data for simulations accurate up to 1.0 Hz. The ROS is also an infrastructural service, making online earthquake simulation feasible. Users can conduct their own earthquake simulation by providing a set of source parameters through the ROS webpage. For visualization, a ShakeMovie and ShakeMap are produced during the simulation. The time needed for one event is roughly 3 minutes for a 70 sec ground motion simulation. The ROS is operated online at the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica (http://ros.earth.sinica.edu.tw/). Our long-term goal for the ROS system is to contribute to public earth science outreach and to realize seismic ground motion prediction in real-time.

  11. Variations of gravity before and after the Haicheng earthquake, 1975 and the Tangshan earthquake, 1976

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Y.; Gu, H.; Lu, Z.

    1980-02-01

    Based on results of repeated leveling work done in these regions, the estimated amount of gravity change caused by the change of elevation of the ground surface is far too small to account for the observed value. Therefore it has been speculated that some big earthquakes might be associated with some sort of mass migration under the ground, within the crust or in the upper mantle. This migration would cause a large part of the gravity variation observed. Researchers have made a theoretical analysis of this effect and attempted to get some estimate of the rate of this mass migration, even though the physics of it is not clear.

  12. Structural requirement of carboxyl-terminal globular domains of laminin alpha 3 chain for promotion of rapid cell adhesion and migration by laminin-5.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirosaki, T; Mizushima, H; Tsubota, Y; Moriyama, K; Miyazaki, K

    2000-07-21

    The basement membrane protein laminin-5, a heterotrimer of laminin alpha3, beta3, and gamma2 chains, potently promotes cellular adhesion and motility. It has been supposed that the carboxyl-terminal globular region of the alpha3 chain consisting of five distinct domains (G1 to G5) is important for its interaction with integrins. To clarify the function of each G domain, we transfected cDNAs for the full-length (wild type (WT)) and five deletion derivatives (DeltaGs) of the alpha3 chain into human fibrosarcoma cell line HT1080, which expressed and secreted the laminin beta3 and gamma2 chains but not the alpha3 chain. The transfectants with the alpha3 chain cDNAs lacking G5 (DeltaG(5)), G4-5 (DeltaG(4-5)), G3-5 (DeltaG(3-5)), and G2-5 (DeltaG(2-5)) secreted laminin-5 variants at levels comparable to that with WT cDNA. However, the transfectant with the cDNA without any G domains (DeltaG(1-5)) secreted little laminin-5, suggesting that the G domains are essential for the efficient assembly and secretion of the heterotrimer alpha3beta3gamma2. The transfectants with WT, DeltaG(5), and DeltaG(4-5) cDNAs survived in serum-free medium longer than those with DeltaG(3-5), DeltaG(2-5), and DeltaG(1-5) cDNAs. The transfectants with WT, DeltaG(5), and DeltaG(4-5) cDNAs secreted apparently the same size of laminin-5, which lacked G4 and G5 due to proteolytic cleavage between G3 and G4, and these laminin-5 forms potently promoted integrin alpha(3)beta(1)-dependent cell adhesion and migration. However, the laminin-5 forms of DeltaG(3-5) and DeltaG(2-5) hardly promoted the cell adhesion and motility. These findings demonstrate that the G3 domain, but not the G4 and G5 domains, of the alpha3 chain is essential for the potent promotion of cell adhesion and motility by laminin-5.

  13. Fluid-faulting evolution in high definition: Connecting fault structure and frequency-magnitude variations during the 2014 Long Valley Caldera, California earthquake swarm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelly, David R.; Ellsworth, William L.; Hill, David P.

    2016-01-01

    An extended earthquake swarm occurred beneath southeastern Long Valley Caldera between May and November 2014, culminating in three magnitude 3.5 earthquakes and 1145 cataloged events on 26 September alone. The swarm produced the most prolific seismicity in the caldera since a major unrest episode in 1997-1998. To gain insight into the physics controlling swarm evolution, we used large-scale cross-correlation between waveforms of cataloged earthquakes and continuous data, producing precise locations for 8494 events, more than 2.5 times the routine catalog. We also estimated magnitudes for 18,634 events (~5.5 times the routine catalog), using a principal component fit to measure waveform amplitudes relative to cataloged events. This expanded and relocated catalog reveals multiple episodes of pronounced hypocenter expansion and migration on a collection of neighboring faults. Given the rapid migration and alignment of hypocenters on narrow faults, we infer that activity was initiated and sustained by an evolving fluid pressure transient with a low-viscosity fluid, likely composed primarily of water and CO2 exsolved from underlying magma. Although both updip and downdip migration were observed within the swarm, downdip activity ceased shortly after activation, while updip activity persisted for weeks at moderate levels. Strongly migrating, single-fault episodes within the larger swarm exhibited a higher proportion of larger earthquakes (lower Gutenberg-Richter b value), which may have been facilitated by fluid pressure confined in two dimensions within the fault zone. In contrast, the later swarm activity occurred on an increasingly diffuse collection of smaller faults, with a much higher b value.

  14. Rapid, Robust Characterization of Subduction Zone Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Tisha Christine

    Energy is an important factor in international relations and recently the global energy paradigm has been seen to be shifting towards the East. In light of such change, a comparative assessment of the role of energy in Qatar' East Asian foreign relations will be conducted by taking China, Japan and South Korea as case studies. The research aimed to assess each of the bilateral relationship in terms of their origin and development in the energy sector generating an interpretation of their growing interdependence, taking into consideration the various domestic, regional and international influencing factors. At this level, LNG development and trade was adopted to see the extent of energy cooperation. In general, energy cooperation played the leading role in the three relationships, but to different degrees. Furthermore, all three bilateral relationship pertain to the 'complex interdependence approach' that is supported by the use of institutionalism and soft power.

  15. Variations of gravity before and after the Haicheng earthquake, 1975, and the Tangshan earthquake, 1976

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Y.; Gu, H.; Lu, Z.

    1980-02-01

    From the results, there seems to be a close relationship between gravity variations and the occurrence of earthquakes. Based on results of repeated leveling work done in these regions, the estimated amount of gravity change caused by the change of elevation of the ground surface is far too small to account for the observed value. It is speculated that some big earthquakes might be associated with some sort of mass migration under the ground, within the crust or in the upper mantle. This migration would cause a large part of the gravity variation observed. Researchers have made a theoretical analysis of this effect and attempted to get some estimate of the rate of this mass migration, even though the physics of it is not clear.

  16. Rapid Migration of Radionuclides Leaked from High-Level Water Tanks: A Study of Salinity Gradients, Wetted Path Geometry and Water Vapor Transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson L. Ward; Glendon W. Gee; John S. Selker; Caly Cooper

    2002-04-24

    tension of imbibing solutions can enhance vertical fingered flow, this phenomenon was not observed in the field. Field tests of showed that the fingered flow behavior was overwhelmed by the variability in texture resulting from differences in the depositional environment. Field plumes were characterized by lateral spreading with an average width to depth aspect ratio of 4. For both vertical fingers and lateral flow, the high ionic strength contributed to the vapor phase dilution of the waste, which increased waste volume and pushed the wetting from well beyond what would have occurred if the volume of material had remained unchanged from that initially released into the system. It was also observed that following significant vapor-phase dilution of the waste simulants that streams of colloids were ejected from the sediment surfaces. It was shown that due to the high-sodium content of the tank wastes the colloids were deflocculated below a critical salt concentration in Hanford sediment s. The released colloids, which at the site would be expected to carry the bulk of the sorbed heavy metals and radioisotopes, were mobile though coarse Hanford sediments, but clogged finer layers. The developments resulting from this study are already being applied at Hanford in the nonisothermal prediction of the hypersaline, high pH waste migration in tank farms and in the development of inverse methods for history matching under DOE's Groundwater/Vadose Zone Integration Project at Hanford.

  17. Rapid Migration of Radionuclides Leaked from High-Level Water Tanks; A Study of Salinity Gradients, Wetted Path Geometry and Water Vapor Transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson l. Ward; Glendon W. Gee; John S. Selker; Clay Cooper

    2002-04-24

    tens ion of imbibing solutions can enhance vertical fingered flow, this phenomenon was not observed in the field. Field tests showed that the fingered flow behavior was overwhelmed by the variability in texture resulting from differences in the depositional environment. Field plumes were characterized by lateral spreading with an average width to depth aspect ratio of 4. For both vertical fingers and lateral flow, the high ionic strength contributed to the vapor phase dilution of the waste, which increased waste volume and pushed the wetting from well beyond what would have occurred if the volume of material had remained unchanged from that initially released into the system. It was also observed that following significant vapor-phase dilution of this waste simulants that streams of colloids were ejected from the sediment surfaces. It was shown that due to the high-sodium content of the tank wastes the colloids were deflocculated below a critical salt concentration in Hanford sediments. Th e released colloids, which at the site would be expected to carry the bulk of the sorbed heavy metals and radioisotopes, were mobile though coarse Hanford sediments, but clogged finer layers. The developments resulting from this study are already being applied at Hanford in the nonisothermal prediction of the hypersaline, high pH waste migration in tank farms and in the development of inverse methods for history matching under DOE's Groundwater/Vadose Zone Integration Project at Hanford.

  18. Rapid Migration of Radionuclides Leaked from High-Level Water Tanks: A Study of Salinity Gradients, Wetted Path Geometry and Water Vapor Transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, Anderson L.; Gee, Glendon W.; Selker, John S.; Cooper, Caly

    2002-01-01

    of imbibing solutions can enhance vertical fingered flow, this phenomenon was not observed in the field. Field tests of showed that the fingered flow behavior was overwhelmed by the variability in texture resulting from differences in the depositional environment. Field plumes were characterized by lateral spreading with an average width to depth aspect ratio of 4. For both vertical fingers and lateral flow, the high ionic strength contributed to the vapor phase dilution of the waste, which increased waste volume and pushed the wetting from well beyond what would have occurred if the volume of material had remained unchanged from that initially released into the system. It was also observed that following significant vapor-phase dilution of the waste simulants that streams of colloids were ejected from the sediment surfaces. It was shown that due to the high-sodium content of the tank wastes the colloids were deflocculated below a critical salt concentration in Hanford sediment s. The released colloids, which at the site would be expected to carry the bulk of the sorbed heavy metals and radioisotopes, were mobile though coarse Hanford sediments, but clogged finer layers. The developments resulting from this study are already being applied at Hanford in the nonisothermal prediction of the hypersaline, high pH waste migration in tank farms and in the development of inverse methods for history matching under DOE's Groundwater/Vadose Zone Integration Project at Hanford

  19. Rapid Migration of Radionuclides Leaked from High-Level Water Tanks: A Study of Salinity Gradients, Wetted Path Geometry and Water Vapor Transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, Anderson L.; Gee, Glendon W.; Selker, John S.; Cooper, Clay

    2002-01-01

    of imbibing solutions can enhance vertical fingered flow, this phenomenon was not observed in the field. Field tests showed that the fingered flow behavior was overwhelmed by the variability in texture resulting from differences in the depositional environment. Field plumes were characterized by lateral spreading with an average width to depth aspect ratio of 4. For both vertical fingers and lateral flow, the high ionic strength contributed to the vapor phase dilution of the waste, which increased waste volume and pushed the wetting from well beyond what would have occurred if the volume of material had remained unchanged from that initially released into the system. It was also observed that following significant vapor-phase dilution of this waste simulants that streams of colloids were ejected from the sediment surfaces. It was shown that due to the high-sodium content of the tank wastes the colloids were deflocculated below a critical salt concentration in Hanford sediments. Th e released colloids, which at the site would be expected to carry the bulk of the sorbed heavy metals and radioisotopes, were mobile though coarse Hanford sediments, but clogged finer layers. The developments resulting from this study are already being applied at Hanford in the nonisothermal prediction of the hypersaline, high pH waste migration in tank farms and in the development of inverse methods for history matching under DOE's Groundwater/Vadose Zone Integration Project at Hanford

  20. Rapid change of chromomeric and pairing patterns of polytene chromosome tips in D. melanogaster: migration of polytene-nonpolytene transition zone?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, P A

    1979-07-01

    The high variability of chromomeric patterns in near-terminal regions of polytene chromosome arms has been explored in a number of races, strains and hybrids of Drosophila melanogaster. Traditional explanations for tip differences between strains (differential compaction of chromatin, somatic or germinal deletion) are examined and, in the light of the reported observations, rejected. The range of polytene tip variability and rates of change in wild races are greater than has been supposed: strains formerly considered to be terminally deleted appear to gain terminal bands; others, formerly considered normal, appear to have lost them. Strains with high cell-to-cell tip variability are also described. Cell-to-cell variations, as well as much of the observed rapid changes in tip appearance, are probably due to heritable differences in the location of an abrupt transition zone between polytene and nonpolytene chromatin. A quantitative relationship between the amount of certain subterminal bands present and the frequency of tip association of nonhomologous chromosomes is shown and its possible significance for chromosome is shown and its possible for chromosome pairing discussed.

  1. Solar eruptions - soil radon - earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saghatelyan, E.; Petrosyan, L.; Aghbalyan, Yu.; Baburyan, M.; Araratyan, L.

    2004-01-01

    For the first time a new natural phenomenon was established: a contrasting increase in the soil radon level under the influence of solar flares. Such an increase is one of geochemical indicators of earthquakes. Most researchers consider this a phenomenon of exclusively terrestrial processes. Investigations regarding the link of earthquakes to solar activity carried out during the last decade in different countries are based on the analysis of statistical data ΣΕ (t) and W (t). As established, the overall seismicity of the Earth and its separate regions depends of an 11-year long cycle of solar activity. Data provided in the paper based on experimental studies serve the first step on the way of experimental data on revealing cause-and-reason solar-terrestrials bonds in a series s olar eruption-lithosphere radon-earthquakes . They need further collection of experimental data. For the first time, through radon constituent of terrestrial radiation objectification has been made of elementary lattice of the Hartmann's network contoured out by bio location method. As found out, radon concentration variations in Hartmann's network nodes determine the dynamics of solar-terrestrial relationships. Of the three types of rapidly running processes conditioned by solar-terrestrial bonds earthquakes are attributed to rapidly running destructive processes that occur in the most intense way at the juncture of tectonic massifs, along transformed and deep failures. The basic factors provoking the earthquakes are both magnetic-structural effects and a long-term (over 5 months) bombing of the surface of lithosphere by highly energetic particles of corpuscular solar flows, this being approved by photometry. As a result of solar flares that occurred from 29 October to 4 November 2003, a sharply contrasting increase in soil radon was established which is an earthquake indicator on the territory of Yerevan City. A month and a half later, earthquakes occurred in San-Francisco, Iran, Turkey

  2. Migration chemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlsen, L.

    1992-05-01

    Migration chemistry, the influence of chemical -, biochemical - and physico-chemical reactions on the migration behaviour of pollutants in the environment, is an interplay between the actual natur of the pollutant and the characteristics of the environment, such as pH, redox conditions and organic matter content. The wide selection of possible pollutants in combination with varying geological media, as well as the operation of different chemical -, biochemical - and physico-chemical reactions compleactes the prediction of the influence of these processes on the mobility of pollutants. The report summarizes a wide range of potential pollutants in the terrestrial environment as well as a variety of chemical -, biochemical - and physico-chemical reactions, which can be expected to influence the migration behaviour, comprising diffusion, dispersion, convection, sorption/desorption, precipitation/dissolution, transformations/degradations, biochemical reactions and complex formation. The latter comprises the complexation of metal ions as well as non-polar organics to naturally occurring organic macromolecules. The influence of the single types of processes on the migration process is elucidated based on theoretical studies. The influence of chemical -, biochemical - and physico-chemical reactions on the migration behaviour is unambiguous, as the processes apparently control the transport of pollutants in the terrestrial environment. As the simple, conventional K D concept breaks down, it is suggested that the migration process should be described in terms of the alternative concepts chemical dispersion, average-elution-time and effective retention. (AB) (134 refs.)

  3. Smartphone MEMS accelerometers and earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Q.; Allen, R. M.; Schreier, L.; Kwon, Y. W.

    2015-12-01

    The low cost MEMS accelerometers in the smartphones are attracting more and more attentions from the science community due to the vast number and potential applications in various areas. We are using the accelerometers inside the smartphones to detect the earthquakes. We did shake table tests to show these accelerometers are also suitable to record large shakings caused by earthquakes. We developed an android app - MyShake, which can even distinguish earthquake movements from daily human activities from the recordings recorded by the accelerometers in personal smartphones and upload trigger information/waveform to our server for further analysis. The data from these smartphones forms a unique datasets for seismological applications, such as earthquake early warning. In this talk I will layout the method we used to recognize earthquake-like movement from single smartphone, and the overview of the whole system that harness the information from a network of smartphones for rapid earthquake detection. This type of system can be easily deployed and scaled up around the global and provides additional insights of the earthquake hazards.

  4. Earthquakes: hydrogeochemical precursors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Manga, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake prediction is a long-sought goal. Changes in groundwater chemistry before earthquakes in Iceland highlight a potential hydrogeochemical precursor, but such signals must be evaluated in the context of long-term, multiparametric data sets.

  5. Ground water and earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ts' ai, T H

    1977-11-01

    Chinese folk wisdom has long seen a relationship between ground water and earthquakes. Before an earthquake there is often an unusual change in the ground water level and volume of flow. Changes in the amount of particulate matter in ground water as well as changes in color, bubbling, gas emission, and noises and geysers are also often observed before earthquakes. Analysis of these features can help predict earthquakes. Other factors unrelated to earthquakes can cause some of these changes, too. As a first step it is necessary to find sites which are sensitive to changes in ground stress to be used as sensor points for predicting earthquakes. The necessary features are described. Recording of seismic waves of earthquake aftershocks is also an important part of earthquake predictions.

  6. Earthquake Warning Performance in Vallejo for the South Napa Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurman, G.; Price, M.

    2014-12-01

    In 2002 and 2003, Seismic Warning Systems, Inc. installed first-generation QuakeGuardTM earthquake warning devices at all eight fire stations in Vallejo, CA. These devices are designed to detect the P-wave of an earthquake and initiate predetermined protective actions if the impending shaking is estimated at approximately Modifed Mercalli Intensity V or greater. At the Vallejo fire stations the devices were set up to sound an audio alert over the public address system and to command the equipment bay doors to open. In August 2014, after more than 11 years of operating in the fire stations with no false alarms, the five units that were still in use triggered correctly on the MW 6.0 South Napa earthquake, less than 16 km away. The audio alert sounded in all five stations, providing fire fighters with 1.5 to 2.5 seconds of warning before the arrival of the S-wave, and the equipment bay doors opened in three of the stations. In one station the doors were disconnected from the QuakeGuard device, and another station lost power before the doors opened completely. These problems highlight just a small portion of the complexity associated with realizing actionable earthquake warnings. The issues experienced in this earthquake have already been addressed in subsequent QuakeGuard product generations, with downstream connection monitoring and backup power for critical systems. The fact that the fire fighters in Vallejo were afforded even two seconds of warning at these epicentral distances results from the design of the QuakeGuard devices, which focuses on rapid false positive rejection and ground motion estimates. We discuss the performance of the ground motion estimation algorithms, with an emphasis on the accuracy and timeliness of the estimates at close epicentral distances.

  7. Ionospheric earthquake precursors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulachenko, A.L.; Oraevskij, V.N.; Pokhotelov, O.A.; Sorokin, V.N.; Strakhov, V.N.; Chmyrev, V.M.

    1996-01-01

    Results of experimental study on ionospheric earthquake precursors, program development on processes in the earthquake focus and physical mechanisms of formation of various type precursors are considered. Composition of experimental cosmic system for earthquake precursors monitoring is determined. 36 refs., 5 figs

  8. Children's Ideas about Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simsek, Canan Lacin

    2007-01-01

    Earthquake, a natural disaster, is among the fundamental problems of many countries. If people know how to protect themselves from earthquake and arrange their life styles in compliance with this, damage they will suffer will reduce to that extent. In particular, a good training regarding earthquake to be received in primary schools is considered…

  9. Exploration of the role of permeability and effective stress transfer effects on Earthquakes Migration in a Fault Zone induced by a Fluid Injection in the nearby host rock: Experimental and Numerical Result.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsopela, A.; Guglielmi, Y.; Donze, F. V.; De Barros, L.; Henry, P.; Castilla, R.; Gout, C.

    2016-12-01

    Although it has long been known that anthropogenic fluid injections can induce earthquakes, the mechanisms involved are still poorly understood and our ability to assess the seismic hazard associated to the production of geothermal energy or unconventional hydrocarbon remains limited. Here we present a field injection experiment conducted in the host rock 4m away from a fault affecting Toarcian shales (Tournemire massif, France). A dense network of sensors recorded fluid pressure, flow-rate, deformation and seismic activity. Injections followed an extended leak-off test protocol. Failure in the host rock was observed for a pressure of 4.4 MPa associated to a strike-slip-to-reverse reactivation of a pre-existing fracture. Magnitude -4.2 to -3.8 seismic events were located in the fault zone 3.5-to->10m away from the injection showing focal mechanisms in reasonable agreement with a strike-slip reactivation of the fault structures. We first used fully coupled hydro-mechanical numerical modeling to quantify the injection source parameters (state of stress, size of the rupture patch and size of the pressurized patch). We applied an injection loading protocol characterized by an imposed flow rate-vs-time history according to the volume of fluid injected in-situ, to match calculated and measured pressure and displacement variations at the injection source. We then used a larger model including the fault zone to discuss how predominant the effects of stress transfer mechanisms causing a purely mechanical fault activation can be compared to the effects of effective stress variations associated to fluid propagation in the fault structures. Preliminary results are that calculated slipping patches are much higher than the one estimated from seismicity, respectively 0.3m and <10-6m, and that the dimensions of the pressurized zone hardly matches with the distance of the earthquakes.

  10. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

  11. Earthquake forecasting and warning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rikitake, T.

    1983-01-01

    This review briefly describes two other books on the same subject either written or partially written by Rikitake. In this book, the status of earthquake prediction efforts in Japan, China, the Soviet Union, and the United States are updated. An overview of some of the organizational, legal, and societal aspects of earthquake prediction in these countries is presented, and scientific findings of precursory phenomena are included. A summary of circumstances surrounding the 1975 Haicheng earthquake, the 1978 Tangshan earthquake, and the 1976 Songpan-Pingwu earthquake (all magnitudes = 7.0) in China and the 1978 Izu-Oshima earthquake in Japan is presented. This book fails to comprehensively summarize recent advances in earthquake prediction research.

  12. Migrating Worker

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Hans

    This is the preliminary report on the results obtained in the Migrating Worker-project. This project was initiated by the Danish Ministry of Finance with the aim of illustrating the effects of the 1408/71 agreement and the bilateral double taxation agreements Denmark has with the countries included...

  13. Dateline Migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomasi, Lydio E., Ed.

    1995-01-01

    Presents data on international migration and its effects in and between various countries in North America, Europe, and Africa. Discussions include refugee, immigrant, and migrant worker flows; the legal, political, and social problems surrounding immigrants; alien terrorism and law enforcement problems; and migrant effects on education, social…

  14. Harnessing the Collective Power of Eyewitnesses for Improved Earthquake Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Lefebvre, S.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Steed, R.

    2013-12-01

    The Euro-Med Seismological Centre (EMSC) operates the second global earthquake information website (www.emsc-csem.org) which attracts 2 million visits a month from about 200 different countries. We collect information about earthquakes' effects from eyewitnesses such as online questionnaires, geolocated pics to rapidly constrain impact scenario. At the beginning, the collection was purely intended to address a scientific issue: the rapid evaluation of earthquake's impact. However, it rapidly appears that the understanding of eyewitnesses' expectations and motivations in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake was essential to optimise this data collection. Crowdsourcing information on earthquake's effects does not apply to a pre-existing community. By definition, eyewitnesses only exist once the earthquake has struck. We developed a strategy on social networks (Facebook, Google+, Twitter...) to interface with spontaneously emerging online communities of eyewitnesses. The basic idea is to create a positive feedback loop: attract eyewitnesses and engage with them by providing expected earthquake information and services, collect their observations, collate them for improved earthquake information services to attract more witnesses. We will present recent examples to illustrate how important the use of social networks is to engage with eyewitnesses especially in regions of low seismic activity where people are unaware of existing Internet resources dealing with earthquakes. A second type of information collated in our information services is derived from the real time analysis of the traffic on our website in the first minutes following an earthquake occurrence, an approach named flashsourcing. We show, using the example of the Mineral, Virginia earthquake that the arrival times of eyewitnesses of our website follows the propagation of the generated seismic waves and then, that eyewitnesses can be considered as ground motion sensors. Flashsourcing discriminates felt

  15. Migration pathways in soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gronow, J.R.

    1986-01-01

    This study looked at diffusive migration through three types of deformation; the projectile pathways, hydraulic fractures of the sediments and faults, and was divided into three experimental areas: autoradiography, the determination of diffusion coefficients and electron microscopy of model projectile pathways in clay. For the autoradiography, unstressed samples were exposed to two separate isotopes, Pm-147 (a possible model for Am behaviour) and the poorly sorbed iodide-125. The results indicated that there was no enhanced migration through deformed kaolin samples nor through fractured Great Meteor East (GME) sediment, although some was evident through the projectile pathways in GME and possibly through the GME sheared samples. The scanning electron microscopy of projectile pathways in clay showed that emplacement of a projectile appeared to have no effect on the orientation of particles at distances greater than two projectile radii from the centre of a projectile pathway. It showed that the particles were not simply aligned with the direction of motion of the projectile but that, the closer to the surface of a particular pathway, the closer the particles lay to their original orientation. This finding was of interest from two points of view: i) the ease of migration of a pollutant along the pathway, and ii) possible mechanisms of hole closure. It was concluded that, provided that there is no advective migration, the transport of radionuclides through sediments containing these defects would not be significantly more rapid than in undeformed sediments. (author)

  16. Transnational Migration of Vietnamese Women in Asia | CRDI ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Over the last decade, Asia has witnessed rapid growth in the feminization of migration. For example, during that period, more than 100 000 Vietnamese women migrated to other countries to work and a similar ... University of Western Ontario.

  17. Transnational Migration of Vietnamese Women in Asia | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Over the last decade, Asia has witnessed rapid growth in the feminization of migration. For example, during that period, more than 100 000 Vietnamese women migrated to other countries to work and a similar ... University of Western Ontario.

  18. Memory effect in M ≥ 6 earthquakes of South-North Seismic Belt, Mainland China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jeen-Hwa

    2013-07-01

    The M ≥ 6 earthquakes occurred in the South-North Seismic Belt, Mainland China, during 1901-2008 are taken to study the possible existence of memory effect in large earthquakes. The fluctuation analysis technique is applied to analyze the sequences of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time represented in the natural time domain. Calculated results show that the exponents of scaling law of fluctuation versus window length are less than 0.5 for the sequences of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time. The migration of earthquakes in study is taken to discuss the possible correlation between events. The phase portraits of two sequent magnitudes and two sequent inter-event times are also applied to explore if large (or small) earthquakes are followed by large (or small) events. Together with all kinds of given information, we conclude that the earthquakes in study is short-term correlated and thus the short-term memory effect would be operative.

  19. [Comparative analysis of the clinical characteristics of orthopedic inpatients in Lushan and Wenchuan earthquakes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Xiao-Jun; Wang, Guang-Lin; Pei, Fu-Xing; Song, Yue-Ming; Yang, Tian-Fu; Tu, Chong-Qi; Huang, Fu-Guo; Liu, Hao; Lin, Wei

    2013-10-18

    To systematically analyze and compare the clinical characteristics of orthopedic inpatients in Lushan and Wenchuan earthquake, so as to provide useful references for future earthquakes injury rescue. Based on the orthopedic inpatients in Lushan and Wenchuan earthquakes, the data of the age, gender, injury causes, body injured parts and speed of transport were classified and compared. The duration of patients admitted to hospital lasted long and the peak appeared late in Wenchuan earthquake, which is totally opposed to Lushan earthquake. There was no significant difference in the patient's age and gender between the two earthquakes. However, the occurrence rate of crush syndrome, amputation, gas gangrene, vascular injury and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) in Wenchuan earthquake was much higher than that in Lushan earthquake. Blunt traumas or crush-related injuries (79.6%) are the major injury cause in Wenchuan earthquake, however, high falling injuries and falls (56.8%) are much higher than blunt trauma or crush-related injuries (39.2%) in Lushan earthquake. The incidence rate of foot fractures, spine fractures and multiple fractures in Lushan earthquake was higher than that in Wenchuan earthquake, but that of open fractures and lower limb fractures was lower than that in Wenchuan earthquake. The rapid rescue scene is the cornerstone of successful treatment, early rescue and transport obviously reduce the incidence of the wound infection, crush syndrome, MODS and amputation. Popularization of correct knowledge of emergency shelters will help to reduce the damage caused by blindly jumping or escaping while earthquake happens.

  20. Encyclopedia of earthquake engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Kougioumtzoglou, Ioannis; Patelli, Edoardo; Au, Siu-Kui

    2015-01-01

    The Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering is designed to be the authoritative and comprehensive reference covering all major aspects of the science of earthquake engineering, specifically focusing on the interaction between earthquakes and infrastructure. The encyclopedia comprises approximately 265 contributions. Since earthquake engineering deals with the interaction between earthquake disturbances and the built infrastructure, the emphasis is on basic design processes important to both non-specialists and engineers so that readers become suitably well-informed without needing to deal with the details of specialist understanding. The content of this encyclopedia provides technically inclined and informed readers about the ways in which earthquakes can affect our infrastructure and how engineers would go about designing against, mitigating and remediating these effects. The coverage ranges from buildings, foundations, underground construction, lifelines and bridges, roads, embankments and slopes. The encycl...

  1. Earthquake at 40 feet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, G. J.

    1976-01-01

    The earthquake that struck the island of Guam on November 1, 1975, at 11:17 a.m had many unique aspects-not the least of which was the experience of an earthquake of 6.25 Richter magnitude while at 40 feet. My wife Bonnie, a fellow diver, Greg Guzman, and I were diving at Gabgab Beach in teh outer harbor of Apra Harbor, engaged in underwater phoyography when the earthquake struck. 

  2. Earthquakes and economic growth

    OpenAIRE

    Fisker, Peter Simonsen

    2012-01-01

    This study explores the economic consequences of earthquakes. In particular, it is investigated how exposure to earthquakes affects economic growth both across and within countries. The key result of the empirical analysis is that while there are no observable effects at the country level, earthquake exposure significantly decreases 5-year economic growth at the local level. Areas at lower stages of economic development suffer harder in terms of economic growth than richer areas. In addition,...

  3. A preference for migration

    OpenAIRE

    Stark, Oded

    2007-01-01

    At least to some extent migration behavior is the outcome of a preference for migration. The pattern of migration as an outcome of a preference for migration depends on two key factors: imitation technology and migration feasibility. We show that these factors jointly determine the outcome of a preference for migration and we provide examples that illustrate how the prevalence and transmission of a migration-forming preference yield distinct migration patterns. In particular, the imitation of...

  4. Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieterich, J H; Kilgore, B

    1996-04-30

    The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

  5. Vulnerable to HIV / AIDS. Migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, I

    1998-01-01

    This special report discusses the impact of globalization, patterns of migration in Southeast Asia, gender issues in migration, the links between migration and HIV/AIDS, and spatial mobility and social networks. Migrants are particularly marginalized in countries that blame migrants for transmission of infectious and communicable diseases and other social ills. Effective control of HIV/AIDS among migrant and native populations requires a multisectoral approach. Programs should critically review the privatization of health care services and challenge economic models that polarize the rich and the poor, men and women, North and South, and migrant and native. Programs should recognize the equality between locals and migrants in receipt of health services. Countermeasures should have input from migrants in order to reduce the conditions that increase vulnerability to HIV/AIDS. Gender-oriented research is needed to understand women's role in migration. Rapid assessment has obscured the human dimension of migrants' vulnerability to HIV. Condom promotion is not enough. Migration is a major consequence of globalization, which holds the promise, real or imagined, of prosperity for all. Mass migration can be fueled by explosive regional developments. In Southeast Asia, migration has been part of the process of economic development. The potential to emigrate increases with greater per capita income. "Tiger" economies have been labor importers. Safe sex is not practiced in many Asian countries because risk is not taken seriously. Migrants tend to be used as economic tools, without consideration of social adjustment and sex behavior among singles.

  6. Liquid chromatography in migration studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlsen, L.; Batsberg, W.

    1982-01-01

    Liquid chromatography ahs been suggested as a facile experimental technique to determine important physico-chemical properties, as permeability, porosity, dispersion-, diffusion-, and sorption charcteristics for geological material as chalk samples. The feasibility of the trechnique as a rapid method to evaluate the possible influence of changes in ground water composition on the migration behavior of radionuclides has been demonstrated

  7. Earthquakes and Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2008

    2008-01-01

    Earthquakes are low-probability, high-consequence events. Though they may occur only once in the life of a school, they can have devastating, irreversible consequences. Moderate earthquakes can cause serious damage to building contents and non-structural building systems, serious injury to students and staff, and disruption of building operations.…

  8. Bam Earthquake in Iran

    CERN Multimedia

    2004-01-01

    Following their request for help from members of international organisations, the permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran has given the following bank account number, where you can donate money to help the victims of the Bam earthquake. Re: Bam earthquake 235 - UBS 311264.35L Bubenberg Platz 3001 BERN

  9. Tradable Earthquake Certificates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woerdman, Edwin; Dulleman, Minne

    2018-01-01

    This article presents a market-based idea to compensate for earthquake damage caused by the extraction of natural gas and applies it to the case of Groningen in the Netherlands. Earthquake certificates give homeowners a right to yearly compensation for both property damage and degradation of living

  10. Globalization, Migration and Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George, Susan

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available EnglishMigration may become the most important branch of demography in the earlydecades of the new millennium in a rapidly globalizing world. This paper discusses the causes, costsand benefits of international migration to countries of the South and North, and key issues of commonconcern. International migration is as old as national boundaries, though its nature, volume,direction, causes and consequences have changed. The causes of migration are rooted in the rate ofpopulation growth and the proportion of youth in the population, their education and training,employment opportunities, income differentials in society, communication and transportationfacilities, political freedom and human rights and level of urbanization. Migration benefits the Souththrough remittances of migrants, improves the economic welfare of the population (particularly womenof South countries generally, increases investment, and leads to structural changes in the economy.However, emigration from the South has costs too, be they social or caused by factors such as braindrain. The North also benefits by migration through enhancement of economic growth, development ofnatural resources, improved employment prospects, social development and through exposure toimmigrants' new cultures and lifestyles. Migration also has costs to the North such as of immigrantintegration, a certain amount of destabilization of the economy, illegal immigration, and socialproblems of discrimination and exploitation. Issues common to both North and South include impact onprivate investment, trade, international cooperation, and sustainable development. Both North andSouth face a dilemma in seeking an appropriate balance between importing South's labour or itsproducts and exporting capital and technology from the North.FrenchLa migration est sans doute devenue la partie la plus importante de la démographie des premières décennies du nouveau millénaire dans un monde qui change rapidement. Ce

  11. Characteristic of the postseismic deformation following the 2011 Sanriku-Oki earthquake (Mw 7.2) by comparing the 1989 and 1992 Sanriku-Oki events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohta, Yusaku; Hino, Ryota; Ariyoshi, Keisuke; Matsuzawa, Toru; Mishina, Masaaki; Sato, Tadahiro; Tachibana, Kenji; Demachi, Tomotsugu; Miura, Satoshi

    2013-04-01

    The March 11, 2011, moment magnitude (Mw) 9.0 Tohoku earthquake (hereafter referred to as the mainshock) generated a large tsunami, which caused devastating damage and the loss of more than 15,800 lives. On March 9, 2011 at 2:45 (UTC), an M7.3 interplate earthquake (hereafter referred to as the foreshock) occurred ~45 km northeast of the epicenter of the Mw9.0 mainshock. The focal mechanism estimated by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) incorporates reverse fault motion with a west-northwest to east-southeast compression axis. This foreshock preceded the 2011 Tohoku earthquake by 51 h. Kato et al. [Science, 2012] pointed out aftershock migration after the foreshock along the trench axis toward the epicenter of the Mw9.0 mainshock on the basis of an earthquake catalog, which was created using a waveform correlation technique. They also estimated aseismic slip amount by the repeating earthquake analysis. Ohta et al. [GRL, 2012] proposed a coseismic and postseismic afterslip model of the foreshock based on a GPS network and ocean bottom pressure gauge sites. The estimated coseismic slip and afterslip areas show complementary spatial distributions. The slip amount for the afterslip is roughly consistent with that determined by repeating earthquake analysis carried out by Kato et al. [2012]. Ohta et al. [2012] also pointed out a volumetric strainmeter time series suggests that this event advanced with a rapid decay time constant compared with other typical large earthquakes. For verification of this exception, we investigated the postseismic deformation characteristic following the 1989 and 1992 Sanriku-Oki earthquake, which occurred 100-150 km north of the epicenter of the 2011 Sanriku-Oki event. We used four components extensometer of the Tohoku University at Miyako (39.59N, 141.98E) on the Sanriku coast for these events. To extract the characteristics of the postseismic deformation, we fitted the logarithmic function

  12. Historic Eastern Canadian earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asmis, G.J.K.; Atchinson, R.J.

    1981-01-01

    Nuclear power plants licensed in Canada have been designed to resist earthquakes: not all plants, however, have been explicitly designed to the same level of earthquake induced forces. Understanding the nature of strong ground motion near the source of the earthquake is still very tentative. This paper reviews historical and scientific accounts of the three strongest earthquakes - St. Lawrence (1925), Temiskaming (1935), Cornwall (1944) - that have occurred in Canada in 'modern' times, field studies of near-field strong ground motion records and their resultant damage or non-damage to industrial facilities, and numerical modelling of earthquake sources and resultant wave propagation to produce accelerograms consistent with the above historical record and field studies. It is concluded that for future construction of NPP's near-field strong motion must be explicitly considered in design

  13. The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes: Cascading Geological Hazards and Compounding Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katsuichiro Goda

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available A sequence of two strike-slip earthquakes occurred on 14 and 16 April 2016 in the intraplate region of Kyushu Island, Japan, apart from subduction zones, and caused significant damage and disruption to the Kumamoto region. The analyses of regional seismic catalog and available strong motion recordings reveal striking characteristics of the events, such as migrating seismicity, earthquake surface rupture, and major foreshock-mainshock earthquake sequences. To gain valuable lessons from the events, a UK Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team (EEFIT was dispatched to Kumamoto, and earthquake damage surveys were conducted to relate observed earthquake characteristics to building and infrastructure damage caused by the earthquakes. The lessons learnt from the reconnaissance mission have important implications on current seismic design practice regarding the required seismic resistance of structures under multiple shocks and the seismic design of infrastructure subject to large ground deformation. The observations also highlight the consequences of cascading geological hazards on community resilience. To share the gathered damage data widely, geo-tagged photos are organized using Google Earth and the kmz file is made publicly available.

  14. Turkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance and "Istanbul Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.; Erdik, M.

    2009-04-01

    The city of Istanbul will likely experience substantial direct and indirect losses as a result of a future large (M=7+) earthquake with an annual probability of occurrence of about 2%. This paper dwells on the expected building losses in terms of probable maximum and average annualized losses and discusses the results from the perspective of the compulsory earthquake insurance scheme operational in the country. The TCIP system is essentially designed to operate in Turkey with sufficient penetration to enable the accumulation of funds in the pool. Today, with only 20% national penetration, and about approximately one-half of all policies in highly earthquake prone areas (one-third in Istanbul) the system exhibits signs of adverse selection, inadequate premium structure and insufficient funding. Our findings indicate that the national compulsory earthquake insurance pool in Turkey will face difficulties in covering incurring building losses in Istanbul in the occurrence of a large earthquake. The annualized earthquake losses in Istanbul are between 140-300 million. Even if we assume that the deductible is raised to 15%, the earthquake losses that need to be paid after a large earthquake in Istanbul will be at about 2.5 Billion, somewhat above the current capacity of the TCIP. Thus, a modification to the system for the insured in Istanbul (or Marmara region) is necessary. This may mean an increase in the premia and deductible rates, purchase of larger re-insurance covers and development of a claim processing system. Also, to avoid adverse selection, the penetration rates elsewhere in Turkey need to be increased substantially. A better model would be introduction of parametric insurance for Istanbul. By such a model the losses will not be indemnified, however will be directly calculated on the basis of indexed ground motion levels and damages. The immediate improvement of a parametric insurance model over the existing one will be the elimination of the claim processing

  15. The plan to coordinate NEHRP post-earthquake investigations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzer, Thomas L.; Borcherdt, Roger D.; Comartin, Craig D.; Hanson, Robert D.; Scawthorn, Charles R.; Tierney, Kathleen; Youd, T. Leslie

    2003-01-01

    This is the plan to coordinate domestic and foreign post-earthquake investigations supported by the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP). The plan addresses coordination of both the NEHRP agencies—Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), National Science Foundation (NSF), and U. S. Geological Survey (USGS)—and their partners. The plan is a framework for both coordinating what is going to be done and identifying responsibilities for post-earthquake investigations. It does not specify what will be done. Coordination is addressed in various time frames ranging from hours to years after an earthquake. The plan includes measures for (1) gaining rapid and general agreement on high-priority research opportunities, and (2) conducting the data gathering and fi eld studies in a coordinated manner. It deals with identifi cation, collection, processing, documentation, archiving, and dissemination of the results of post-earthquake work in a timely manner and easily accessible format.

  16. Migration, Risk and Liquidity Constraints in El Salvador

    OpenAIRE

    Timothy Halliday

    2005-01-01

    This article utilizes panel data from El Salvador to investigate the use of transnational migration as an ex post risk management strategy. I show that adverse agricultural conditions in El Salvador increase both migration to the United States and remittances sent back to El Salvador. I show that, in the absence of any agricultural shocks, the probability that a household sent members to the United States would have decreased on average by 24.26%. I also show that the 2001 earthquakes reduced...

  17. Dispersal and migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schwarz, C.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Ringing of birds unveiled many aspects of avian migration and dispersal movements. However, there is even much more to be explored by the use of ringing and other marks. Dispersal is crucial in understanding the initial phase of migration in migrating birds as it is to understand patterns and processes of distribution and gene flow. So far, the analysis of migration was largely based on analysing spatial and temporal patters of recoveries of ringed birds. However, there are considerable biases and pitfalls in using recoveries due to spatial and temporal variation in reporting probabilities. Novel methods are required for future studies separating the confounding effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity of recovery data and heterogeneity of the landscape as well. These novel approaches should aim a more intensive and novel use of the existing recovery data by taking advantage of, for instance, dynamic and multistate modeling, should elaborate schemes for future studies, and should also include other marks that allow a more rapid data collection, like telemetry, geolocation and global positioning systems, and chemical and molecular markers. The latter appear to be very useful in the delineating origin of birds and connectivity between breeding and non–breeding grounds. Many studies of migration are purely descriptive. However, King and Brooks (King & Brooks, 2004 examine if movement patterns of dolphins change after the introduction of a gillnet ban. Bayesian methods are an interesting approach to this problem as they provide a meaningful measure of the probability that such a change occurred rather than simple yes/no response that is often the result of classical statistical methods. However, the key difficulty of a general implementation of Bayesian methods is the complexity of the modelling —there is no general userfriendly package that is easily accessible to most scientists. Drake and Alisauskas (Drake & Alisauskas, 2004 examine the

  18. Earthquake magnitude estimation using the τ c and P d method for earthquake early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xing; Zhang, Hongcai; Li, Jun; Wei, Yongxiang; Ma, Qiang

    2013-10-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are one of the most effective ways to reduce earthquake disaster. Earthquake magnitude estimation is one of the most important and also the most difficult parts of the entire EEW system. In this paper, based on 142 earthquake events and 253 seismic records that were recorded by the KiK-net in Japan, and aftershocks of the large Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, we obtained earthquake magnitude estimation relationships using the τ c and P d methods. The standard variances of magnitude calculation of these two formulas are ±0.65 and ±0.56, respectively. The P d value can also be used to estimate the peak ground motion of velocity, then warning information can be released to the public rapidly, according to the estimation results. In order to insure the stability and reliability of magnitude estimation results, we propose a compatibility test according to the natures of these two parameters. The reliability of the early warning information is significantly improved though this test.

  19. Validation of Atmosphere/Ionosphere Signals Associated with Major Earthquakes by Multi-Instrument Space-Borne and Ground Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouzounov, Dimitar; Pulinets, Sergey; Hattori, Katsumi; Parrot, Michel; Liu, J. Y.; Yang, T. F.; Arellano-Baeza, Alonso; Kafatos, M.; Taylor, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    The latest catastrophic earthquake in Japan (March 2011) has renewed interest in the important question of the existence of pre-earthquake anomalous signals related to strong earthquakes. Recent studies have shown that there were precursory atmospheric/ionospheric signals observed in space associated with major earthquakes. The critical question, still widely debated in the scientific community, is whether such ionospheric/atmospheric signals systematically precede large earthquakes. To address this problem we have started to investigate anomalous ionospheric / atmospheric signals occurring prior to large earthquakes. We are studying the Earth's atmospheric electromagnetic environment by developing a multisensor model for monitoring the signals related to active tectonic faulting and earthquake processes. The integrated satellite and terrestrial framework (ISTF) is our method for validation and is based on a joint analysis of several physical and environmental parameters (thermal infrared radiation, electron concentration in the ionosphere, lineament analysis, radon/ion activities, air temperature and seismicity) that were found to be associated with earthquakes. A physical link between these parameters and earthquake processes has been provided by the recent version of Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model. Our experimental measurements have supported the new theoretical estimates of LAIC hypothesis for an increase in the surface latent heat flux, integrated variability of outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) and anomalous variations of the total electron content (TEC) registered over the epicenters. Some of the major earthquakes are accompanied by an intensification of gas migration to the surface, thermodynamic and hydrodynamic processes of transformation of latent heat into thermal energy and with vertical transport of charged aerosols in the lower atmosphere. These processes lead to the generation of external electric currents in specific

  20. Earthquakes, November-December 1977

    Science.gov (United States)

    Person, W.J.

    1978-01-01

    Two major earthquakes occurred in the last 2 months of the year. A magnitude 7.0 earthquake struck San Juan Province, Argentina, on November 23, causing fatalities and damage. The second major earthquake was a magnitude 7.0 in the Bonin Islands region, an unpopulated area. On December 19, Iran experienced a destructive earthquake, which killed over 500.

  1. Earthquakes, September-October 1986

    Science.gov (United States)

    Person, W.J.

    1987-01-01

    There was one great earthquake (8.0 and above) during this reporting period in the South Pacific in the Kermadec Islands. There were no major earthquakes (7.0-7.9) but earthquake-related deaths were reported in Greece and in El Salvador. There were no destrcutive earthquakes in the United States.

  2. Real-time earthquake source imaging: An offline test for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yong; Wang, Rongjiang; Zschau, Jochen; Parolai, Stefano; Dahm, Torsten

    2014-05-01

    In recent decades, great efforts have been expended in real-time seismology aiming at earthquake and tsunami early warning. One of the most important issues is the real-time assessment of earthquake rupture processes using near-field seismogeodetic networks. Currently, earthquake early warning systems are mostly based on the rapid estimate of P-wave magnitude, which contains generally large uncertainties and the known saturation problem. In the case of the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake, JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) released the first warning of the event with M7.2 after 25 s. The following updates of the magnitude even decreased to M6.3-6.6. Finally, the magnitude estimate stabilized at M8.1 after about two minutes. This led consequently to the underestimated tsunami heights. By using the newly developed Iterative Deconvolution and Stacking (IDS) method for automatic source imaging, we demonstrate an offline test for the real-time analysis of the strong-motion and GPS seismograms of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The results show that we had been theoretically able to image the complex rupture process of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake automatically soon after or even during the rupture process. In general, what had happened on the fault could be robustly imaged with a time delay of about 30 s by using either the strong-motion (KiK-net) or the GPS (GEONET) real-time data. This implies that the new real-time source imaging technique is helpful to reduce false and missing warnings, and therefore should play an important role in future tsunami early warning and earthquake rapid response systems.

  3. Earthquake hazard assessment and small earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reiter, L.

    1987-01-01

    The significance of small earthquakes and their treatment in nuclear power plant seismic hazard assessment is an issue which has received increased attention over the past few years. In probabilistic studies, sensitivity studies showed that the choice of the lower bound magnitude used in hazard calculations can have a larger than expected effect on the calculated hazard. Of particular interest is the fact that some of the difference in seismic hazard calculations between the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) studies can be attributed to this choice. The LLNL study assumed a lower bound magnitude of 3.75 while the EPRI study assumed a lower bound magnitude of 5.0. The magnitudes used were assumed to be body wave magnitudes or their equivalents. In deterministic studies recent ground motion recordings of small to moderate earthquakes at or near nuclear power plants have shown that the high frequencies of design response spectra may be exceeded. These exceedances became important issues in the licensing of the Summer and Perry nuclear power plants. At various times in the past particular concerns have been raised with respect to the hazard and damage potential of small to moderate earthquakes occurring at very shallow depths. In this paper a closer look is taken at these issues. Emphasis is given to the impact of lower bound magnitude on probabilistic hazard calculations and the historical record of damage from small to moderate earthquakes. Limited recommendations are made as to how these issues should be viewed

  4. The Challenge of Centennial Earthquakes to Improve Modern Earthquake Engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saragoni, G. Rodolfo

    2008-01-01

    The recent commemoration of the centennial of the San Francisco and Valparaiso 1906 earthquakes has given the opportunity to reanalyze their damages from modern earthquake engineering perspective. These two earthquakes plus Messina Reggio Calabria 1908 had a strong impact in the birth and developing of earthquake engineering. The study of the seismic performance of some up today existing buildings, that survive centennial earthquakes, represent a challenge to better understand the limitations of our in use earthquake design methods. Only Valparaiso 1906 earthquake, of the three considered centennial earthquakes, has been repeated again as the Central Chile, 1985, Ms = 7.8 earthquake. In this paper a comparative study of the damage produced by 1906 and 1985 Valparaiso earthquakes is done in the neighborhood of Valparaiso harbor. In this study the only three centennial buildings of 3 stories that survived both earthquakes almost undamaged were identified. Since for 1985 earthquake accelerogram at El Almendral soil conditions as well as in rock were recoded, the vulnerability analysis of these building is done considering instrumental measurements of the demand. The study concludes that good performance of these buildings in the epicentral zone of large earthquakes can not be well explained by modern earthquake engineering methods. Therefore, it is recommended to use in the future of more suitable instrumental parameters, such as the destructiveness potential factor, to describe earthquake demand

  5. Sun, Moon and Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolvankar, V. G.

    2013-12-01

    During a study conducted to find the effect of Earth tides on the occurrence of earthquakes, for small areas [typically 1000km X1000km] of high-seismicity regions, it was noticed that the Sun's position in terms of universal time [GMT] shows links to the sum of EMD [longitude of earthquake location - longitude of Moon's foot print on earth] and SEM [Sun-Earth-Moon angle]. This paper provides the details of this relationship after studying earthquake data for over forty high-seismicity regions of the world. It was found that over 98% of the earthquakes for these different regions, examined for the period 1973-2008, show a direct relationship between the Sun's position [GMT] and [EMD+SEM]. As the time changes from 00-24 hours, the factor [EMD+SEM] changes through 360 degree, and plotting these two variables for earthquakes from different small regions reveals a simple 45 degree straight-line relationship between them. This relationship was tested for all earthquakes and earthquake sequences for magnitude 2.0 and above. This study conclusively proves how Sun and the Moon govern all earthquakes. Fig. 12 [A+B]. The left-hand figure provides a 24-hour plot for forty consecutive days including the main event (00:58:23 on 26.12.2004, Lat.+3.30, Long+95.980, Mb 9.0, EQ count 376). The right-hand figure provides an earthquake plot for (EMD+SEM) vs GMT timings for the same data. All the 376 events including the main event faithfully follow the straight-line curve.

  6. Earthquake vulnerability assessment of buildings of ward no. 8 of Haldwani-Kathgodam Municipal Corporation, Uttarakhand, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bora, Kritika; Pande, Ravindra K.

    2017-07-01

    "Earthquake does not kill people; it is the building which kills people". Earthquake is a sudden event below the surface of the earth which results in vertical and horizontal waves that causes destruction. The main aim of this research is to bring into light the unplanned and non-engineered construction practices growing in the Urban areas. Lack of space and continuous migration from hills has resulted in Multistorey construction. The present study is based on primary data collection through Rapid Visual Screening for the assessment of vulnerability of buildings. "Haldwani-Kathgodam being a new Municipal Corporation located in the foot hills of Himalayas is facing same problem. The seismic zonation brings this area into zone 4 of damage risk. Therefore an assessment to estimate the risk of the built up environment is important. This paper presents a systematic and useful way of assessing physical vulnerability of buildings. The present paper will show how the growing pressure on urban area tends to make the built up environment vulnerable towards seismic activities. The challenge today is to make our living environment safe for living. The day by day growing population pressure on urban area as a migration trend in developing countries is leading to high rise building, no planning and reckless construction. For the sake of saving some money people usually do not take the approval from structural engineer. This unplanned and haphazard construction proves non-resistant towards earthquake and brings lives and properties to death and a stand still. The total no. of household in the current study area is 543 whereas the total population is 2497 (2011). The recent formation of Himalayas makes the area more sensitive towards seismic event. The closeness to the Main Boundary thrust brings it to zone 4 in the Seismic Zonation of India i.e., High Damage Risk Zone

  7. Globalisation and international migration in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hugo, G

    1998-03-01

    "The present paper attempts to summarise the major contemporary trends in international migration in Asia and how this is related to the rapid demographic transition occurring across most of the region. The diversity of types of mobility is one of the striking features of Asian international migration and developments in each major type [are] discussed in the paper. It is then argued that there are elements within the Asian migration system that give it a momentum which to some extent operates outside of the influence of economic and political trends. Finally some emerging issues in Asian international migration are briefly addressed. These include the scale and effects of remittances, the feminisation of migration, undocumented migration, increasing government involvement and brain drain issues." (EXCERPT)

  8. Toward real-time regional earthquake simulation II: Real-time Online earthquake Simulation (ROS) of Taiwan earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Shiann-Jong; Liu, Qinya; Tromp, Jeroen; Komatitsch, Dimitri; Liang, Wen-Tzong; Huang, Bor-Shouh

    2014-06-01

    We developed a Real-time Online earthquake Simulation system (ROS) to simulate regional earthquakes in Taiwan. The ROS uses a centroid moment tensor solution of seismic events from a Real-time Moment Tensor monitoring system (RMT), which provides all the point source parameters including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism within 2 min after the occurrence of an earthquake. Then, all of the source parameters are automatically forwarded to the ROS to perform an earthquake simulation, which is based on a spectral-element method (SEM). A new island-wide, high resolution SEM mesh model is developed for the whole Taiwan in this study. We have improved SEM mesh quality by introducing a thin high-resolution mesh layer near the surface to accommodate steep and rapidly varying topography. The mesh for the shallow sedimentary basin is adjusted to reflect its complex geometry and sharp lateral velocity contrasts. The grid resolution at the surface is about 545 m, which is sufficient to resolve topography and tomography data for simulations accurate up to 1.0 Hz. The ROS is also an infrastructural service, making online earthquake simulation feasible. Users can conduct their own earthquake simulation by providing a set of source parameters through the ROS webpage. For visualization, a ShakeMovie and ShakeMap are produced during the simulation. The time needed for one event is roughly 3 min for a 70 s ground motion simulation. The ROS is operated online at the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica (http://ros.earth.sinica.edu.tw/). Our long-term goal for the ROS system is to contribute to public earth science outreach and to realize seismic ground motion prediction in real-time.

  9. Prospective testing of Coulomb short-term earthquake forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, D. D.; Kagan, Y. Y.; Schorlemmer, D.; Zechar, J. D.; Wang, Q.; Wong, K.

    2009-12-01

    Earthquake induced Coulomb stresses, whether static or dynamic, suddenly change the probability of future earthquakes. Models to estimate stress and the resulting seismicity changes could help to illuminate earthquake physics and guide appropriate precautionary response. But do these models have improved forecasting power compared to empirical statistical models? The best answer lies in prospective testing in which a fully specified model, with no subsequent parameter adjustments, is evaluated against future earthquakes. The Center of Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) facilitates such prospective testing of earthquake forecasts, including several short term forecasts. Formulating Coulomb stress models for formal testing involves several practical problems, mostly shared with other short-term models. First, earthquake probabilities must be calculated after each “perpetrator” earthquake but before the triggered earthquakes, or “victims”. The time interval between a perpetrator and its victims may be very short, as characterized by the Omori law for aftershocks. CSEP evaluates short term models daily, and allows daily updates of the models. However, lots can happen in a day. An alternative is to test and update models on the occurrence of each earthquake over a certain magnitude. To make such updates rapidly enough and to qualify as prospective, earthquake focal mechanisms, slip distributions, stress patterns, and earthquake probabilities would have to be made by computer without human intervention. This scheme would be more appropriate for evaluating scientific ideas, but it may be less useful for practical applications than daily updates. Second, triggered earthquakes are imperfectly recorded following larger events because their seismic waves are buried in the coda of the earlier event. To solve this problem, testing methods need to allow for “censoring” of early aftershock data, and a quantitative model for detection threshold as a function of

  10. Earthquake Ground Motion Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Nonlinear analyses of soils, structures, and soil-structure systems offer the potential for more accurate characterization of geotechnical and structural response under strong earthquake shaking. The increasing use of advanced performance-based desig...

  11. 1988 Spitak Earthquake Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 1988 Spitak Earthquake database is an extensive collection of geophysical and geological data, maps, charts, images and descriptive text pertaining to the...

  12. The Globalisation of migration

    OpenAIRE

    Milan Mesić

    2002-01-01

    The paper demonstrates that contemporary international migration is a constitutive part of the globalisation process. After defining the concepts of globalisation and the globalisation of migration, the author discusses six key themes, linking globalisation and international migration (“global cities”, the scale of migration; diversification of migration flows; globalisation of science and education; international migration and citizenship; emigrant communities and new identities). First, in ...

  13. Electromagnetic Manifestation of Earthquakes

    OpenAIRE

    Uvarov Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    In a joint analysis of the results of recording the electrical component of the natural electromagnetic field of the Earth and the catalog of earthquakes in Kamchatka in 2013, unipolar pulses of constant amplitude associated with earthquakes were identified, whose activity is closely correlated with the energy of the electromagnetic field. For the explanation, a hypothesis about the cooperative character of these impulses is proposed.

  14. Electromagnetic Manifestation of Earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uvarov Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In a joint analysis of the results of recording the electrical component of the natural electromagnetic field of the Earth and the catalog of earthquakes in Kamchatka in 2013, unipolar pulses of constant amplitude associated with earthquakes were identified, whose activity is closely correlated with the energy of the electromagnetic field. For the explanation, a hypothesis about the cooperative character of these impulses is proposed.

  15. Study of Earthquake Disaster Prediction System of Langfang city Based on GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Meng; Zhang, Dian; Li, Pan; Zhang, YunHui; Zhang, RuoFei

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, according to the status of China’s need to improve the ability of earthquake disaster prevention, this paper puts forward the implementation plan of earthquake disaster prediction system of Langfang city based on GIS. Based on the GIS spatial database, coordinate transformation technology, GIS spatial analysis technology and PHP development technology, the seismic damage factor algorithm is used to predict the damage of the city under different intensity earthquake disaster conditions. The earthquake disaster prediction system of Langfang city is based on the B / S system architecture. Degree and spatial distribution and two-dimensional visualization display, comprehensive query analysis and efficient auxiliary decision-making function to determine the weak earthquake in the city and rapid warning. The system has realized the transformation of the city’s earthquake disaster reduction work from static planning to dynamic management, and improved the city’s earthquake and disaster prevention capability.

  16. Charles Darwin's earthquake reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galiev, Shamil

    2010-05-01

    As it is the 200th anniversary of Darwin's birth, 2009 has also been marked as 170 years since the publication of his book Journal of Researches. During the voyage Darwin landed at Valdivia and Concepcion, Chile, just before, during, and after a great earthquake, which demolished hundreds of buildings, killing and injuring many people. Land was waved, lifted, and cracked, volcanoes awoke and giant ocean waves attacked the coast. Darwin was the first geologist to observe and describe the effects of the great earthquake during and immediately after. These effects sometimes repeated during severe earthquakes; but great earthquakes, like Chile 1835, and giant earthquakes, like Chile 1960, are rare and remain completely unpredictable. This is one of the few areas of science, where experts remain largely in the dark. Darwin suggested that the effects were a result of ‘ …the rending of strata, at a point not very deep below the surface of the earth…' and ‘…when the crust yields to the tension, caused by its gradual elevation, there is a jar at the moment of rupture, and a greater movement...'. Darwin formulated big ideas about the earth evolution and its dynamics. These ideas set the tone for the tectonic plate theory to come. However, the plate tectonics does not completely explain why earthquakes occur within plates. Darwin emphasised that there are different kinds of earthquakes ‘...I confine the foregoing observations to the earthquakes on the coast of South America, or to similar ones, which seem generally to have been accompanied by elevation of the land. But, as we know that subsidence has gone on in other quarters of the world, fissures must there have been formed, and therefore earthquakes...' (we cite the Darwin's sentences following researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474). These thoughts agree with results of the last publications (see Nature 461, 870-872; 636-639 and 462, 42-43; 87-89). About 200 years ago Darwin gave oneself airs by the

  17. Nowcasting Earthquakes and Tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    The term "nowcasting" refers to the estimation of the current uncertain state of a dynamical system, whereas "forecasting" is a calculation of probabilities of future state(s). Nowcasting is a term that originated in economics and finance, referring to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or market indicators such as GDP at the current time by indirect means. We have applied this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of a system of faults, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EA000185/full). Advantages of our nowcasting method over forecasting models include: 1) Nowcasting is simply data analysis and does not involve a model having parameters that must be fit to data; 2) We use only earthquake catalog data which generally has known errors and characteristics; and 3) We use area-based analysis rather than fault-based analysis, meaning that the methods work equally well on land and in subduction zones. To use the nowcast method to estimate how far the fault system has progressed through the "cycle" of large recurring earthquakes, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. We select a "small" region in which the nowcast is to be made, and compute the statistics of a much larger region around the small region. The statistics of the large region are then applied to the small region. For an application, we can define a small region around major global cities, for example a "small" circle of radius 150 km and a depth of 100 km, as well as a "large" earthquake magnitude, for example M6.0. The region of influence of such earthquakes is roughly 150 km radius x 100 km depth, which is the reason these values were selected. We can then compute and rank the seismic risk of the world's major cities in terms of their relative seismic risk

  18. Earthquake Early Warning: User Education and Designing Effective Messages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, E. R.; Sellnow, D. D.; Jones, L.; Sellnow, T. L.

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and partners are transitioning from test-user trials of a demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) to deciding and preparing how to implement the release of earthquake early warning information, alert messages, and products to the public and other stakeholders. An earthquake early warning system uses seismic station networks to rapidly gather information about an occurring earthquake and send notifications to user devices ahead of the arrival of potentially damaging ground shaking at their locations. Earthquake early warning alerts can thereby allow time for actions to protect lives and property before arrival of damaging shaking, if users are properly educated on how to use and react to such notifications. A collaboration team of risk communications researchers and earth scientists is researching the effectiveness of a chosen subset of potential earthquake early warning interface designs and messages, which could be displayed on a device such as a smartphone. Preliminary results indicate, for instance, that users prefer alerts that include 1) a map to relate their location to the earthquake and 2) instructions for what to do in response to the expected level of shaking. A number of important factors must be considered to design a message that will promote appropriate self-protective behavior. While users prefer to see a map, how much information can be processed in limited time? Are graphical representations of wavefronts helpful or confusing? The most important factor to promote a helpful response is the predicted earthquake intensity, or how strong the expected shaking will be at the user's location. Unlike Japanese users of early warning, few Californians are familiar with the earthquake intensity scale, so we are exploring how differentiating instructions between intensity levels (e.g., "Be aware" for lower shaking levels and "Drop, cover, hold on" at high levels) can be paired with self-directed supplemental

  19. GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, A.

    2009-04-01

    Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

  20. Quantification of social contributions to earthquake mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Main, I. G.; NicBhloscaidh, M.; McCloskey, J.; Pelling, M.; Naylor, M.

    2013-12-01

    Death tolls in earthquakes, which continue to grow rapidly, are the result of complex interactions between physical effects, such as strong shaking, and the resilience of exposed populations and supporting critical infrastructures and institutions. While it is clear that the social context in which the earthquake occurs has a strong effect on the outcome, the influence of this context can only be exposed if we first decouple, as much as we can, the physical causes of mortality from our consideration. (Our modelling assumes that building resilience to shaking is a social factor governed by national wealth, legislation and enforcement and governance leading to reduced levels of corruption.) Here we attempt to remove these causes by statistically modelling published mortality, shaking intensity and population exposure data; unexplained variance from this physical model illuminates the contribution of socio-economic factors to increasing earthquake mortality. We find that this variance partitions countries in terms of basic socio-economic measures and allows the definition of a national vulnerability index identifying both anomalously resilient and anomalously vulnerable countries. In many cases resilience is well correlated with GDP; people in the richest countries are unsurprisingly safe from even the worst shaking. However some low-GDP countries rival even the richest in resilience, showing that relatively low cost interventions can have a positive impact on earthquake resilience and that social learning between these countries might facilitate resilience building in the absence of expensive engineering interventions.

  1. New characteristics of intensity assessment of Sichuan Lushan "4.20" M s7.0 earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Baitao; Yan, Peilei; Chen, Xiangzhao

    2014-08-01

    The post-earthquake rapid accurate assessment of macro influence of seismic ground motion is of significance for earthquake emergency relief, post-earthquake reconstruction and scientific research. The seismic intensity distribution map released by the Lushan earthquake field team of the China Earthquake Administration (CEA) five days after the strong earthquake ( M7.0) occurred in Lushan County of Sichuan Ya'an City at 8:02 on April 20, 2013 provides a scientific basis for emergency relief, economic loss assessment and post-earthquake reconstruction. In this paper, the means for blind estimation of macroscopic intensity, field estimation of macro intensity, and review of intensity, as well as corresponding problems are discussed in detail, and the intensity distribution characteristics of the Lushan "4.20" M7.0 earthquake and its influential factors are analyzed, providing a reference for future seismic intensity assessments.

  2. Rupture, waves and earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uenishi, Koji

    2017-01-01

    Normally, an earthquake is considered as a phenomenon of wave energy radiation by rupture (fracture) of solid Earth. However, the physics of dynamic process around seismic sources, which may play a crucial role in the occurrence of earthquakes and generation of strong waves, has not been fully understood yet. Instead, much of former investigation in seismology evaluated earthquake characteristics in terms of kinematics that does not directly treat such dynamic aspects and usually excludes the influence of high-frequency wave components over 1 Hz. There are countless valuable research outcomes obtained through this kinematics-based approach, but "extraordinary" phenomena that are difficult to be explained by this conventional description have been found, for instance, on the occasion of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu, Japan, earthquake, and more detailed study on rupture and wave dynamics, namely, possible mechanical characteristics of (1) rupture development around seismic sources, (2) earthquake-induced structural failures and (3) wave interaction that connects rupture (1) and failures (2), would be indispensable.

  3. Earthquakes and Earthquake Engineering. LC Science Tracer Bullet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buydos, John F., Comp.

    An earthquake is a shaking of the ground resulting from a disturbance in the earth's interior. Seismology is the (1) study of earthquakes; (2) origin, propagation, and energy of seismic phenomena; (3) prediction of these phenomena; and (4) investigation of the structure of the earth. Earthquake engineering or engineering seismology includes the…

  4. Assigning probability gain for precursors of four large Chinese earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cao, T.; Aki, K.

    1983-03-10

    We extend the concept of probability gain associated with a precursor (Aki, 1981) to a set of precursors which may be mutually dependent. Making use of a new formula, we derive a criterion for selecting precursors from a given data set in order to calculate the probability gain. The probabilities per unit time immediately before four large Chinese earthquakes are calculated. They are approximately 0.09, 0.09, 0.07 and 0.08 per day for 1975 Haicheng (M = 7.3), 1976 Tangshan (M = 7.8), 1976 Longling (M = 7.6), and Songpan (M = 7.2) earthquakes, respectively. These results are encouraging because they suggest that the investigated precursory phenomena may have included the complete information for earthquake prediction, at least for the above earthquakes. With this method, the step-by-step approach to prediction used in China may be quantified in terms of the probability of earthquake occurrence. The ln P versus t curve (where P is the probability of earthquake occurrence at time t) shows that ln P does not increase with t linearly but more rapidly as the time of earthquake approaches.

  5. Testing earthquake source inversion methodologies

    KAUST Repository

    Page, Morgan T.; Mai, Paul Martin; Schorlemmer, Danijel

    2011-01-01

    Source Inversion Validation Workshop; Palm Springs, California, 11-12 September 2010; Nowadays earthquake source inversions are routinely performed after large earthquakes and represent a key connection between recorded seismic and geodetic data

  6. Earthquakes; May-June 1982

    Science.gov (United States)

    Person, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    There were four major earthquakes (7.0-7.9) during this reporting period: two struck in Mexico, one in El Salvador, and one in teh Kuril Islands. Mexico, El Salvador, and China experienced fatalities from earthquakes.

  7. Regional fault deformation characteristics before and after the Menyuan Ms6.4 earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Li

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes data regarding cross-fault deformations within the seismogenic zone of the 2016 Qinghai Menyuan Ms6.4 earthquake and its surrounding area. The results showed that the tendency anomaly sites near the epicenter had relatively long anomaly durations prior to the earthquake, while sudden-jumping anomaly sites started to increase in the middle eastern Qilian Mountains approximately a year before the earthquake and continued to increase and migrate towards the vicinity of the epicenter two to six months before the earthquake. Intensive observations a few days after the earthquake indicated that abnormal returns and turns before the earthquake were significant, but all had small amplitudes, and the coseismic effect was generally minor. In addition, the post-seismic tendency analysis of individual cross faults in the Qilian Mountain fault zone revealed an accelerating thrust tendency at all cross-fault sites in the middle Qilian Mountains after the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. This indicates that the Wenchuan mega-earthquake exerted a great impact on the dynamic environment of the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet plate and significantly enhanced the extrusion effect of the Indian plate on the middle Qilian Mountains, generating favorable conditions for the occurrence of Menyuan thrust earthquakes.

  8. Sensing the earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bichisao, Marta; Stallone, Angela

    2017-04-01

    Making science visual plays a crucial role in the process of building knowledge. In this view, art can considerably facilitate the representation of the scientific content, by offering a different perspective on how a specific problem could be approached. Here we explore the possibility of presenting the earthquake process through visual dance. From a choreographer's point of view, the focus is always on the dynamic relationships between moving objects. The observed spatial patterns (coincidences, repetitions, double and rhythmic configurations) suggest how objects organize themselves in the environment and what are the principles underlying that organization. The identified set of rules is then implemented as a basis for the creation of a complex rhythmic and visual dance system. Recently, scientists have turned seismic waves into sound and animations, introducing the possibility of "feeling" the earthquakes. We try to implement these results into a choreographic model with the aim to convert earthquake sound to a visual dance system, which could return a transmedia representation of the earthquake process. In particular, we focus on a possible method to translate and transfer the metric language of seismic sound and animations into body language. The objective is to involve the audience into a multisensory exploration of the earthquake phenomenon, through the stimulation of the hearing, eyesight and perception of the movements (neuromotor system). In essence, the main goal of this work is to develop a method for a simultaneous visual and auditory representation of a seismic event by means of a structured choreographic model. This artistic representation could provide an original entryway into the physics of earthquakes.

  9. Possible deep fault slip preceding the 2004 Parkfield earthquake, inferred from detailed observations of tectonic tremor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelly, David R.

    2009-01-01

    Earthquake predictability depends, in part, on the degree to which sudden slip is preceded by slow aseismic slip. Recently, observations of deep tremor have enabled inferences of deep slow slip even when detection by other means is not possible, but these data are limited to certain areas and mostly the last decade. The region near Parkfield, California, provides a unique convergence of several years of high-quality tremor data bracketing a moderate earthquake, the 2004 magnitude 6.0 event. Here, I present detailed observations of tectonic tremor from mid-2001 through 2008 that indicate deep fault slip both before and after the Parkfield earthquake that cannot be detected with surface geodetic instruments. While there is no obvious short-term precursor, I find unidirectional tremor migration accompanied by elevated tremor rates in the 3 months prior to the earthquake, which suggests accelerated creep on the fault ∼16 km beneath the eventual earthquake hypocenter.

  10. Turkish Children's Ideas about Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simsek, Canan Lacin

    2007-01-01

    Earthquake, a natural disaster, is among the fundamental problems of many countries. If people know how to protect themselves from earthquake and arrange their life styles in compliance with this, damage they will suffer will reduce to that extent. In particular, a good training regarding earthquake to be received in primary schools is considered…

  11. Earthquakes, May-June 1991

    Science.gov (United States)

    Person, W.J.

    1992-01-01

    One major earthquake occurred during this reporting period. This was a magntidue 7.1 in Indonesia (Minahassa Peninsula) on June 20. Earthquake-related deaths were reported in the Western Caucasus (Georgia, USSR) on May 3 and June 15. One earthquake-related death was also reported El Salvador on June 21. 

  12. Organizational changes at Earthquakes & Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, David W.

    1992-01-01

    Primary responsibility for the preparation of Earthquakes & Volcanoes within the Geological Survey has shifted from the Office of Scientific Publications to the Office of Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Engineering (OEVE). As a consequence of this reorganization, Henry Spall has stepepd down as Science Editor for Earthquakes & Volcanoes(E&V).

  13. The 1976 Tangshan earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Wang

    1979-01-01

    The Tangshan earthquake of 1976 was one of the largest earthquakes in recent years. It occurred on July 28 at 3:42 a.m, Beijing (Peking) local time, and had magnitude 7.8, focal depth of 15 kilometers, and an epicentral intensity of XI on the New Chinese Seismic Intensity Scale; it caused serious damage and loss of life in this densely populated industrial city. Now, with the help of people from all over China, the city of Tangshan is being rebuild. 

  14. [Earthquakes in El Salvador].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Ville de Goyet, C

    2001-02-01

    The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) has 25 years of experience dealing with major natural disasters. This piece provides a preliminary review of the events taking place in the weeks following the major earthquakes in El Salvador on 13 January and 13 February 2001. It also describes the lessons that have been learned over the last 25 years and the impact that the El Salvador earthquakes and other disasters have had on the health of the affected populations. Topics covered include mass-casualties management, communicable diseases, water supply, managing donations and international assistance, damages to the health-facilities infrastructure, mental health, and PAHO's role in disasters.

  15. Earthquake Culture: A Significant Element in Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment and Earthquake Disaster Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Ibrion, Mihaela

    2018-01-01

    This book chapter brings to attention the dramatic impact of large earthquake disasters on local communities and society and highlights the necessity of building and enhancing the earthquake culture. Iran was considered as a research case study and fifteen large earthquake disasters in Iran were investigated and analyzed over more than a century-time period. It was found that the earthquake culture in Iran was and is still conditioned by many factors or parameters which are not integrated and...

  16. An interdisciplinary approach for earthquake modelling and forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, P.; Zhuang, J.; Hattori, K.; Ogata, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake is one of the most serious disasters, which may cause heavy casualties and economic losses. Especially in the past two decades, huge/mega earthquakes have hit many countries. Effective earthquake forecasting (including time, location, and magnitude) becomes extremely important and urgent. To date, various heuristically derived algorithms have been developed for forecasting earthquakes. Generally, they can be classified into two types: catalog-based approaches and non-catalog-based approaches. Thanks to the rapid development of statistical seismology in the past 30 years, now we are able to evaluate the performances of these earthquake forecast approaches quantitatively. Although a certain amount of precursory information is available in both earthquake catalogs and non-catalog observations, the earthquake forecast is still far from satisfactory. In most case, the precursory phenomena were studied individually. An earthquake model that combines self-exciting and mutually exciting elements was developed by Ogata and Utsu from the Hawkes process. The core idea of this combined model is that the status of the event at present is controlled by the event itself (self-exciting) and all the external factors (mutually exciting) in the past. In essence, the conditional intensity function is a time-varying Poisson process with rate λ(t), which is composed of the background rate, the self-exciting term (the information from past seismic events), and the external excitation term (the information from past non-seismic observations). This model shows us a way to integrate the catalog-based forecast and non-catalog-based forecast. Against this background, we are trying to develop a new earthquake forecast model which combines catalog-based and non-catalog-based approaches.

  17. What is the earthquake fracture energy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Toro, G.; Nielsen, S. B.; Passelegue, F. X.; Spagnuolo, E.; Bistacchi, A.; Fondriest, M.; Murphy, S.; Aretusini, S.; Demurtas, M.

    2016-12-01

    The energy budget of an earthquake is one of the main open questions in earthquake physics. During seismic rupture propagation, the elastic strain energy stored in the rock volume that bounds the fault is converted into (1) gravitational work (relative movement of the wall rocks bounding the fault), (2) in- and off-fault damage of the fault zone rocks (due to rupture propagation and frictional sliding), (3) frictional heating and, of course, (4) seismic radiated energy. The difficulty in the budget determination arises from the measurement of some parameters (e.g., the temperature increase in the slipping zone which constraints the frictional heat), from the not well constrained size of the energy sinks (e.g., how large is the rock volume involved in off-fault damage?) and from the continuous exchange of energy from different sinks (for instance, fragmentation and grain size reduction may result from both the passage of the rupture front and frictional heating). Field geology studies, microstructural investigations, experiments and modelling may yield some hints. Here we discuss (1) the discrepancies arising from the comparison of the fracture energy measured in experiments reproducing seismic slip with the one estimated from seismic inversion for natural earthquakes and (2) the off-fault damage induced by the diffusion of frictional heat during simulated seismic slip in the laboratory. Our analysis suggests, for instance, that the so called earthquake fracture energy (1) is mainly frictional heat for small slips and (2), with increasing slip, is controlled by the geometrical complexity and other plastic processes occurring in the damage zone. As a consequence, because faults are rapidly and efficiently lubricated upon fast slip initiation, the dominant dissipation mechanism in large earthquakes may not be friction but be the off-fault damage due to fault segmentation and stress concentrations in a growing region around the fracture tip.

  18. The mechanism of earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Kunquan; Cao, Zexian; Hou, Meiying; Jiang, Zehui; Shen, Rong; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Gang; Liu, Jixing

    2018-03-01

    The physical mechanism of earthquake remains a challenging issue to be clarified. Seismologists used to attribute shallow earthquake to the elastic rebound of crustal rocks. The seismic energy calculated following the elastic rebound theory and with the data of experimental results upon rocks, however, shows a large discrepancy with measurement — a fact that has been dubbed as “the heat flow paradox”. For the intermediate-focus and deep-focus earthquakes, both occurring in the region of the mantle, there is not reasonable explanation either. This paper will discuss the physical mechanism of earthquake from a new perspective, starting from the fact that both the crust and the mantle are discrete collective system of matters with slow dynamics, as well as from the basic principles of physics, especially some new concepts of condensed matter physics emerged in the recent years. (1) Stress distribution in earth’s crust: Without taking the tectonic force into account, according to the rheological principle of “everything flows”, the normal stress and transverse stress must be balanced due to the effect of gravitational pressure over a long period of time, thus no differential stress in the original crustal rocks is to be expected. The tectonic force is successively transferred and accumulated via stick-slip motions of rock blocks to squeeze the fault gouge and then exerted upon other rock blocks. The superposition of such additional lateral tectonic force and the original stress gives rise to the real-time stress in crustal rocks. The mechanical characteristics of fault gouge are different from rocks as it consists of granular matters. The elastic moduli of the fault gouges are much less than those of rocks, and they become larger with increasing pressure. This peculiarity of the fault gouge leads to a tectonic force increasing with depth in a nonlinear fashion. The distribution and variation of the tectonic stress in the crust are specified. (2) The

  19. The pulsed migration of hydrocarbons across inactive faults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. D. Harris

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Geological fault zones are usually assumed to influence hydrocarbon migration either as high permeability zones which allow enhanced along- or across-fault flow or as barriers to the flow. An additional important migration process inducing along- or across-fault migration can be associated with dynamic pressure gradients. Such pressure gradients can be created by earthquake activity and are suggested here to allow migration along or across inactive faults which 'feel' the quake-related pressure changes; i.e. the migration barriers can be removed on inactive faults when activity takes place on an adjacent fault. In other words, a seal is viewed as a temporary retardation barrier which leaks when a fault related fluid pressure event enhances the buoyancy force and allows the entry pressure to be exceeded. This is in contrast to the usual model where a seal leaks because an increase in hydrocarbon column height raises the buoyancy force above the entry pressure of the fault rock. Under the new model hydrocarbons may migrate across the inactive fault zone for some time period during the earthquake cycle. Numerical models of this process are presented to demonstrate the impact of this mechanism and its role in filling traps bounded by sealed faults.

  20. Human casualties in earthquakes: Modelling and mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spence, R.J.S.; So, E.K.M.

    2011-01-01

    Earthquake risk modelling is needed for the planning of post-event emergency operations, for the development of insurance schemes, for the planning of mitigation measures in the existing building stock, and for the development of appropriate building regulations; in all of these applications estimates of casualty numbers are essential. But there are many questions about casualty estimation which are still poorly understood. These questions relate to the causes and nature of the injuries and deaths, and the extent to which they can be quantified. This paper looks at the evidence on these questions from recent studies. It then reviews casualty estimation models available, and finally compares the performance of some casualty models in making rapid post-event casualty estimates in recent earthquakes.

  1. Earthquake simulations with time-dependent nucleation and long-range interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. Dieterich

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available A model for rapid simulation of earthquake sequences is introduced which incorporates long-range elastic interactions among fault elements and time-dependent earthquake nucleation inferred from experimentally derived rate- and state-dependent fault constitutive properties. The model consists of a planar two-dimensional fault surface which is periodic in both the x- and y-directions. Elastic interactions among fault elements are represented by an array of elastic dislocations. Approximate solutions for earthquake nucleation and dynamics of earthquake slip are introduced which permit computations to proceed in steps that are determined by the transitions from one sliding state to the next. The transition-driven time stepping and avoidance of systems of simultaneous equations permit rapid simulation of large sequences of earthquake events on computers of modest capacity, while preserving characteristics of the nucleation and rupture propagation processes evident in more detailed models. Earthquakes simulated with this model reproduce many of the observed spatial and temporal characteristics of clustering phenomena including foreshock and aftershock sequences. Clustering arises because the time dependence of the nucleation process is highly sensitive to stress perturbations caused by nearby earthquakes. Rate of earthquake activity following a prior earthquake decays according to Omori's aftershock decay law and falls off with distance.

  2. The EM Earthquake Precursor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, K. B., II; Saxton, P. T.

    2013-12-01

    Many attempts have been made to determine a sound forecasting method regarding earthquakes and warn the public in turn. Presently, the animal kingdom leads the precursor list alluding to a transmission related source. By applying the animal-based model to an electromagnetic (EM) wave model, various hypotheses were formed, but the most interesting one required the use of a magnetometer with a differing design and geometry. To date, numerous, high-end magnetometers have been in use in close proximity to fault zones for potential earthquake forecasting; however, something is still amiss. The problem still resides with what exactly is forecastable and the investigating direction of EM. After the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake, American earthquake investigators predetermined magnetometer use and a minimum earthquake magnitude necessary for EM detection. This action was set in motion, due to the extensive damage incurred and public outrage concerning earthquake forecasting; however, the magnetometers employed, grounded or buried, are completely subject to static and electric fields and have yet to correlate to an identifiable precursor. Secondly, there is neither a networked array for finding any epicentral locations, nor have there been any attempts to find even one. This methodology needs dismissal, because it is overly complicated, subject to continuous change, and provides no response time. As for the minimum magnitude threshold, which was set at M5, this is simply higher than what modern technological advances have gained. Detection can now be achieved at approximately M1, which greatly improves forecasting chances. A propagating precursor has now been detected in both the field and laboratory. Field antenna testing conducted outside the NE Texas town of Timpson in February, 2013, detected three strong EM sources along with numerous weaker signals. The antenna had mobility, and observations were noted for recurrence, duration, and frequency response. Next, two

  3. Do I Really Sound Like That? Communicating Earthquake Science Following Significant Earthquakes at the NEIC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, G. P.; Earle, P. S.; Benz, H.; Wald, D. J.; Yeck, W. L.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) responds to about 160 magnitude 6.0 and larger earthquakes every year and is regularly inundated with information requests following earthquakes that cause significant impact. These requests often start within minutes after the shaking occurs and come from a wide user base including the general public, media, emergency managers, and government officials. Over the past several years, the NEIC's earthquake response has evolved its communications strategy to meet the changing needs of users and the evolving media landscape. The NEIC produces a cascade of products starting with basic hypocentral parameters and culminating with estimates of fatalities and economic loss. We speed the delivery of content by prepositioning and automatically generating products such as, aftershock plots, regional tectonic summaries, maps of historical seismicity, and event summary posters. Our goal is to have information immediately available so we can quickly address the response needs of a particular event or sequence. This information is distributed to hundreds of thousands of users through social media, email alerts, programmatic data feeds, and webpages. Many of our products are included in event summary posters that can be downloaded and printed for local display. After significant earthquakes, keeping up with direct inquiries and interview requests from TV, radio, and print reports is always challenging. The NEIC works with the USGS Office of Communications and the USGS Science Information Services to organize and respond to these requests. Written executive summaries reports are produced and distributed to USGS personnel and collaborators throughout the country. These reports are updated during the response to keep our message consistent and information up to date. This presentation will focus on communications during NEIC's rapid earthquake response but will also touch on the broader USGS traditional and

  4. High precision relocation of earthquakes at Iliamna Volcano, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Statz-Boyer, P.; Thurber, C.; Pesicek, J.; Prejean, S.

    2009-01-01

    In August 1996, a period of elevated seismicity commenced beneath Iliamna Volcano, Alaska. This activity lasted until early 1997, consisted of over 3000 earthquakes, and was accompanied by elevated emissions of volcanic gases. No eruption occurred and seismicity returned to background levels where it has remained since. We use waveform alignment with bispectrum-verified cross-correlation and double-difference methods to relocate over 2000 earthquakes from 1996 to 2005 with high precision (~ 100??m). The results of this analysis greatly clarify the distribution of seismic activity, revealing distinct features previously hidden by location scatter. A set of linear earthquake clusters diverges upward and southward from the main group of earthquakes. The events in these linear clusters show a clear southward migration with time. We suggest that these earthquakes represent either a response to degassing of the magma body, circulation of fluids due to exsolution from magma or heating of ground water, or possibly the intrusion of new dikes beneath Iliamna's southern flank. In addition, we speculate that the deeper, somewhat diffuse cluster of seismicity near and south of Iliamna's summit indicates the presence of an underlying magma body between about 2 and 4??km depth below sea level, based on similar features found previously at several other Alaskan volcanoes. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

  5. Migration and sorption phenomena in packaged foods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnanasekharan, V; Floros, J D

    1997-10-01

    Rapidly developing analytical capabilities and continuously evolving stringent regulations have made food/package interactions a subject of intense research. This article focuses on: (1) the migration of package components such as oligomers and monomers, processing aids, additives, and residual reactants in to packaged foods, and (2) sorption of food components such as flavors, lipids, and moisture into packages. Principles of diffusion and thermodynamics are utilized to describe the mathematics of migration and sorption. Mathematical models are developed from first principles, and their applicability is illustrated using numerical simulations and published data. Simulations indicate that available models are system (polymer-penetrant) specific. Furthermore, some models best describe the early stages of migration/sorption, whereas others should be used for the late stages of these phenomena. Migration- and/or sorption-related problems with respect to glass, metal, paper-based and polymeric packaging materials are discussed, and their importance is illustrated using published examples. The effects of migrating and absorbed components on food safety, quality, and the environment are presented for various foods and packaging materials. The impact of currently popular packaging techniques such as microwavable, ovenable, and retortable packaging on migration and sorption are discussed with examples. Analytical techniques for investigating migration and sorption phenomena in food packaging are critically reviewed, with special emphasis on the use and characteristics of food-simulating liquids (FSLs). Finally, domestic and international regulations concerning migration in packaged foods, and their impact on food packaging is briefly presented.

  6. Fighting and preventing post-earthquake fires in nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu Xuefeng; Zhang Xin

    2011-01-01

    Nuclear power plant post-earthquake fires will cause not only personnel injury, severe economic loss, but also serious environmental pollution. For the moment, nuclear power is in a position of rapid development in China. Considering the earthquake-prone characteristics of our country, it is of great engineering importance to investigate the nuclear power plant post-earthquake fires. This article analyzes the cause, influential factors and development characteristics of nuclear power plant post-earthquake fires in details, and summarizes the three principles should be followed in fighting and preventing nuclear power plant post-earthquake fires, such as solving problems in order of importance and urgency, isolation prior to prevention, immediate repair and regular patrol. Three aspects were pointed out that should be paid attention in fighting and preventing post-earthquake fires. (authors)

  7. Simulated earthquake ground motions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanmarcke, E.H.; Gasparini, D.A.

    1977-01-01

    The paper reviews current methods for generating synthetic earthquake ground motions. Emphasis is on the special requirements demanded of procedures to generate motions for use in nuclear power plant seismic response analysis. Specifically, very close agreement is usually sought between the response spectra of the simulated motions and prescribed, smooth design response spectra. The features and capabilities of the computer program SIMQKE, which has been widely used in power plant seismic work are described. Problems and pitfalls associated with the use of synthetic ground motions in seismic safety assessment are also pointed out. The limitations and paucity of recorded accelerograms together with the widespread use of time-history dynamic analysis for obtaining structural and secondary systems' response have motivated the development of earthquake simulation capabilities. A common model for synthesizing earthquakes is that of superposing sinusoidal components with random phase angles. The input parameters for such a model are, then, the amplitudes and phase angles of the contributing sinusoids as well as the characteristics of the variation of motion intensity with time, especially the duration of the motion. The amplitudes are determined from estimates of the Fourier spectrum or the spectral density function of the ground motion. These amplitudes may be assumed to be varying in time or constant for the duration of the earthquake. In the nuclear industry, the common procedure is to specify a set of smooth response spectra for use in aseismic design. This development and the need for time histories have generated much practical interest in synthesizing earthquakes whose response spectra 'match', or are compatible with a set of specified smooth response spectra

  8. Morphological constraints on changing avian migration phenology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, A P; Rubolini, D; Saino, N

    2017-06-01

    Many organisms at northern latitudes have responded to climate warming by advancing their spring phenology. Birds are known to show earlier timing of spring migration and reproduction in response to warmer springs. However, species show heterogeneous phenological responses to climate warming, with those that have not advanced or have delayed migration phenology experiencing population declines. Although some traits (such as migration distance) partly explain heterogeneity in phenological responses, the factors affecting interspecies differences in the responsiveness to climate warming have yet to be fully explored. In this comparative study, we investigate whether variation in wing aspect ratio (reflecting relative wing narrowness), an ecomorphological trait that is strongly associated with flight efficiency and migratory behaviour, affects the ability to advance timing of spring migration during 1960-2006 in a set of 80 European migratory bird species. Species with larger aspect ratio (longer and narrower wings) showed smaller advancement of timing of spring migration compared to species with smaller aspect ratio (shorter and wider wings) while controlling for phylogeny, migration distance and other life-history traits. In turn, migration distance positively predicted aspect ratio across species. Hence, species that are better adapted to migration appear to be more constrained in responding phenologically to rapid climate warming by advancing timing of spring migration. Our findings corroborate the idea that aspect ratio is a major evolutionary correlate of migration, and suggest that selection for energetically efficient flights, as reflected by high aspect ratio, may hinder phenotypically plastic/microevolutionary adjustments of migration phenology to ongoing climatic changes. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  9. Regulators of Intestinal Epithelial Migration in Sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Mei; Klingensmith, Nathan J; Liang, Zhe; Lyons, John D; Fay, Katherine T; Chen, Ching-Wen; Ford, Mandy L; Coopersmith, Craig M

    2018-02-08

    The gut is a continuously renewing organ, with cell proliferation, migration and death occurring rapidly under basal conditions. Since the impact of critical illness on cell movement from crypt base to villus tip is poorly understood, the purpose of this study was to determine how sepsis alters enterocyte migration. Wild type, transgenic and knockout mice were injected with 5-bromo-2'deoxyuridine (BrdU) to label cells in S phase before and after the onset of cecal ligation and puncture and were sacrificed at pre-determined endpoints to determine distance proliferating cells migrated up the crypt-villus unit. Enterocyte migration rate was decreased from 24-96 hours following sepsis. BrdU was not detectable on villi 6 days after sham laparotomy, meaning all cells had migrated the length of the gut and been exfoliated into its lumen. However, BrdU positive cells were detectable on villi 10 days after sepsis. Multiple components of gut integrity altered enterocyte migration. Sepsis decreased crypt proliferation, which further slowed enterocyte transit as mice injected with BrdU after the onset of sepsis (decreased proliferation) had slower migration than mice injected with BrdU prior to the onset of sepsis (normal proliferation). Decreasing intestinal apoptosis via gut-specific overexpression of Bcl-2 prevented sepsis-induced slowing of enterocyte migration. In contrast, worsened intestinal hyperpermeability by genetic deletion of JAM-A increased enterocyte migration. Sepsis therefore significantly slows enterocyte migration, and intestinal proliferation, apoptosis and permeability all affect migration time, which can potentially be targeted both genetically and pharmacologically.

  10. The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of

  11. MANAGING MIGRATION: TURKISH PERSPECTIVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    İhsan GÜLAY

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Conducting migration studies is of vital importance to Turkey, a country which has been experiencing migration throughout history due to its “open doors policy”. The objective of this study is to evaluate the strategic management of migration in Turkey in order to deal with the issue of migration. The main focus of the study is Syrian migrants who sought refuge in Turkey due to the civil war that broke out in their country in April 2011. This study demonstrates the policies and processes followed by Turkey for Syrian migration flow in terms of the social acceptance and harmonisation of the migrants within a democratic environment. The study addresses some statistical facts and issues related to Syrian migration as it has become an integral part of daily life in Turkey. The study also reviews how human rights are protected in the migration process. The study will provide insights for developing sound strategic management policies for the migration issue.

  12. Migration and revolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nando Sigona

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The Arab Spring has not radically transformed migration patterns in the Mediterranean, and the label ‘migration crisis’ does not do justice to the composite and stratified reality.

  13. Global Omori law decay of triggered earthquakes: Large aftershocks outside the classical aftershock zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Tom

    2002-09-01

    Triggered earthquakes can be large, damaging, and lethal as evidenced by the1999 shocks in Turkey and the 2001 earthquakes in El Salvador. In this study, earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.0 from the Harvard centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog are modeled as dislocations to calculate shear stress changes on subsequent earthquake rupture planes near enough to be affected. About 61% of earthquakes that occurred near (defined as having shear stress change ∣Δτ∣ ≥ 0.01 MPa) the Ms ≥ 7.0 shocks are associated with calculated shear stress increases, while ˜39% are associated with shear stress decreases. If earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases are interpreted as triggered, then such events make up at least 8% of the CMT catalog. Globally, these triggered earthquakes obey an Omori law rate decay that lasts between ˜7-11 years after the main shock. Earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases occur at higher rates than background up to 240 km away from the main shock centroid. Omori's law is one of the few time-predictable patterns evident in the global occurrence of earthquakes. If large triggered earthquakes habitually obey Omori's law, then their hazard can be more readily assessed. The characteristic rate change with time and spatial distribution can be used to rapidly assess the likelihood of triggered earthquakes following events of Ms ≥ 7.0. I show an example application to the M = 7.7 13 January 2001 El Salvador earthquake where use of global statistics appears to provide a better rapid hazard estimate than Coulomb stress change calculations.

  14. [Internal migration studies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stpiczynski, T

    1986-10-01

    Recent research on internal migration in Poland is reviewed. The basic sources of data, consisting of censuses or surveys, are first described. The author discusses the relationship between migration studies and other sectors of the national economy, and particularly the relationship between migration and income.

  15. Fire and earthquake counter measures in radiation handling facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-01-01

    'Fire countermeasures in radiation handling facilities' published in 1961 is still widely utilized as a valuable guideline for those handling radiation through the revision in 1972. However, science and technology rapidly advanced, and the relevant laws were revised after the publication, and many points which do not conform to the present state have become to be found. Therefore, it was decided to rewrite this book, and the new book has been completed. The title was changed to 'Fire and earthquake countermeasures in radiation handling facilities', and the countermeasures to earthquakes were added. Moreover, consideration was given so that the book is sufficiently useful also for those concerned with fire fighting, not only for those handling radiation. In this book, the way of thinking about the countermeasures against fires and earthquakes, the countermeasures in normal state and when a fire or an earthquake occurred, the countermeasures when the warning declaration has been announced, and the data on fires, earthquakes, the risk of radioisotopes, fire fighting equipment, the earthquake counter measures for equipment, protectors and radiation measuring instruments, first aid, the example of emergency system in radiation handling facilities, the activities of fire fighters, the example of accidents and so on are described. (Kako, I.)

  16. Historical earthquake research in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammerl, Christa

    2017-12-01

    Austria has a moderate seismicity, and on average the population feels 40 earthquakes per year or approximately three earthquakes per month. A severe earthquake with light building damage is expected roughly every 2 to 3 years in Austria. Severe damage to buildings ( I 0 > 8° EMS) occurs significantly less frequently, the average period of recurrence is about 75 years. For this reason the historical earthquake research has been of special importance in Austria. The interest in historical earthquakes in the past in the Austro-Hungarian Empire is outlined, beginning with an initiative of the Austrian Academy of Sciences and the development of historical earthquake research as an independent research field after the 1978 "Zwentendorf plebiscite" on whether the nuclear power plant will start up. The applied methods are introduced briefly along with the most important studies and last but not least as an example of a recently carried out case study, one of the strongest past earthquakes in Austria, the earthquake of 17 July 1670, is presented. The research into historical earthquakes in Austria concentrates on seismic events of the pre-instrumental period. The investigations are not only of historical interest, but also contribute to the completeness and correctness of the Austrian earthquake catalogue, which is the basis for seismic hazard analysis and as such benefits the public, communities, civil engineers, architects, civil protection, and many others.

  17. Earthquake hazard evaluation for Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruettener, E.

    1995-01-01

    Earthquake hazard analysis is of considerable importance for Switzerland, a country with moderate seismic activity but high economic values at risk. The evaluation of earthquake hazard, i.e. the determination of return periods versus ground motion parameters, requires a description of earthquake occurrences in space and time. In this study the seismic hazard for major cities in Switzerland is determined. The seismic hazard analysis is based on historic earthquake records as well as instrumental data. The historic earthquake data show considerable uncertainties concerning epicenter location and epicentral intensity. A specific concept is required, therefore, which permits the description of the uncertainties of each individual earthquake. This is achieved by probability distributions for earthquake size and location. Historical considerations, which indicate changes in public earthquake awareness at various times (mainly due to large historical earthquakes), as well as statistical tests have been used to identify time periods of complete earthquake reporting as a function of intensity. As a result, the catalog is judged to be complete since 1878 for all earthquakes with epicentral intensities greater than IV, since 1750 for intensities greater than VI, since 1600 for intensities greater than VIII, and since 1300 for intensities greater than IX. Instrumental data provide accurate information about the depth distribution of earthquakes in Switzerland. In the Alps, focal depths are restricted to the uppermost 15 km of the crust, whereas below the northern Alpine foreland earthquakes are distributed throughout the entire crust (30 km). This depth distribution is considered in the final hazard analysis by probability distributions. (author) figs., tabs., refs

  18. Earthquake likelihood model testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Wiemer, S.; Jackson, D.D.; Rhoades, D.A.

    2007-01-01

    INTRODUCTIONThe Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) project aims to produce and evaluate alternate models of earthquake potential (probability per unit volume, magnitude, and time) for California. Based on differing assumptions, these models are produced to test the validity of their assumptions and to explore which models should be incorporated in seismic hazard and risk evaluation. Tests based on physical and geological criteria are useful but we focus on statistical methods using future earthquake catalog data only. We envision two evaluations: a test of consistency with observed data and a comparison of all pairs of models for relative consistency. Both tests are based on the likelihood method, and both are fully prospective (i.e., the models are not adjusted to fit the test data). To be tested, each model must assign a probability to any possible event within a specified region of space, time, and magnitude. For our tests the models must use a common format: earthquake rates in specified “bins” with location, magnitude, time, and focal mechanism limits.Seismology cannot yet deterministically predict individual earthquakes; however, it should seek the best possible models for forecasting earthquake occurrence. This paper describes the statistical rules of an experiment to examine and test earthquake forecasts. The primary purposes of the tests described below are to evaluate physical models for earthquakes, assure that source models used in seismic hazard and risk studies are consistent with earthquake data, and provide quantitative measures by which models can be assigned weights in a consensus model or be judged as suitable for particular regions.In this paper we develop a statistical method for testing earthquake likelihood models. A companion paper (Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger 2007, this issue) discusses the actual implementation of these tests in the framework of the RELM initiative.Statistical testing of hypotheses is a common task and a

  19. Identified EM Earthquake Precursors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Kenneth, II; Saxton, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    Many attempts have been made to determine a sound forecasting method regarding earthquakes and warn the public in turn. Presently, the animal kingdom leads the precursor list alluding to a transmission related source. By applying the animal-based model to an electromagnetic (EM) wave model, various hypotheses were formed, but the most interesting one required the use of a magnetometer with a differing design and geometry. To date, numerous, high-end magnetometers have been in use in close proximity to fault zones for potential earthquake forecasting; however, something is still amiss. The problem still resides with what exactly is forecastable and the investigating direction of EM. After a number of custom rock experiments, two hypotheses were formed which could answer the EM wave model. The first hypothesis concerned a sufficient and continuous electron movement either by surface or penetrative flow, and the second regarded a novel approach to radio transmission. Electron flow along fracture surfaces was determined to be inadequate in creating strong EM fields, because rock has a very high electrical resistance making it a high quality insulator. Penetrative flow could not be corroborated as well, because it was discovered that rock was absorbing and confining electrons to a very thin skin depth. Radio wave transmission and detection worked with every single test administered. This hypothesis was reviewed for propagating, long-wave generation with sufficient amplitude, and the capability of penetrating solid rock. Additionally, fracture spaces, either air or ion-filled, can facilitate this concept from great depths and allow for surficial detection. A few propagating precursor signals have been detected in the field occurring with associated phases using custom-built loop antennae. Field testing was conducted in Southern California from 2006-2011, and outside the NE Texas town of Timpson in February, 2013. The antennae have mobility and observations were noted for

  20. Future Earth: Reducing Loss By Automating Response to Earthquake Shaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquakes pose a significant threat to society in the U.S. and around the world. The risk is easily forgotten given the infrequent recurrence of major damaging events, yet the likelihood of a major earthquake in California in the next 30 years is greater than 99%. As our societal infrastructure becomes ever more interconnected, the potential impacts of these future events are difficult to predict. Yet, the same inter-connected infrastructure also allows us to rapidly detect earthquakes as they begin, and provide seconds, tens or seconds, or a few minutes warning. A demonstration earthquake early warning system is now operating in California and is being expanded to the west coast (www.ShakeAlert.org). In recent earthquakes in the Los Angeles region, alerts were generated that could have provided warning to the vast majority of Los Angelinos who experienced the shaking. Efforts are underway to build a public system. Smartphone technology will be used not only to issue that alerts, but could also be used to collect data, and improve the warnings. The MyShake project at UC Berkeley is currently testing an app that attempts to turn millions of smartphones into earthquake-detectors. As our development of the technology continues, we can anticipate ever-more automated response to earthquake alerts. Already, the BART system in the San Francisco Bay Area automatically stops trains based on the alerts. In the future, elevators will stop, machinery will pause, hazardous materials will be isolated, and self-driving cars will pull-over to the side of the road. In this presentation we will review the current status of the earthquake early warning system in the US. We will illustrate how smartphones can contribute to the system. Finally, we will review applications of the information to reduce future losses.

  1. Geophysical Anomalies and Earthquake Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, D. D.

    2008-12-01

    Finding anomalies is easy. Predicting earthquakes convincingly from such anomalies is far from easy. Why? Why have so many beautiful geophysical abnormalities not led to successful prediction strategies? What is earthquake prediction? By my definition it is convincing information that an earthquake of specified size is temporarily much more likely than usual in a specific region for a specified time interval. We know a lot about normal earthquake behavior, including locations where earthquake rates are higher than elsewhere, with estimable rates and size distributions. We know that earthquakes have power law size distributions over large areas, that they cluster in time and space, and that aftershocks follow with power-law dependence on time. These relationships justify prudent protective measures and scientific investigation. Earthquake prediction would justify exceptional temporary measures well beyond those normal prudent actions. Convincing earthquake prediction would result from methods that have demonstrated many successes with few false alarms. Predicting earthquakes convincingly is difficult for several profound reasons. First, earthquakes start in tiny volumes at inaccessible depth. The power law size dependence means that tiny unobservable ones are frequent almost everywhere and occasionally grow to larger size. Thus prediction of important earthquakes is not about nucleation, but about identifying the conditions for growth. Second, earthquakes are complex. They derive their energy from stress, which is perniciously hard to estimate or model because it is nearly singular at the margins of cracks and faults. Physical properties vary from place to place, so the preparatory processes certainly vary as well. Thus establishing the needed track record for validation is very difficult, especially for large events with immense interval times in any one location. Third, the anomalies are generally complex as well. Electromagnetic anomalies in particular require

  2. Pain after earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angeletti Chiara

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction On 6 April 2009, at 03:32 local time, an Mw 6.3 earthquake hit the Abruzzi region of central Italy causing widespread damage in the City of L Aquila and its nearby villages. The earthquake caused 308 casualties and over 1,500 injuries, displaced more than 25,000 people and induced significant damage to more than 10,000 buildings in the L'Aquila region. Objectives This observational retrospective study evaluated the prevalence and drug treatment of pain in the five weeks following the L'Aquila earthquake (April 6, 2009. Methods 958 triage documents were analysed for patients pain severity, pain type, and treatment efficacy. Results A third of pain patients reported pain with a prevalence of 34.6%. More than half of pain patients reported severe pain (58.8%. Analgesic agents were limited to available drugs: anti-inflammatory agents, paracetamol, and weak opioids. Reduction in verbal numerical pain scores within the first 24 hours after treatment was achieved with the medications at hand. Pain prevalence and characterization exhibited a biphasic pattern with acute pain syndromes owing to trauma occurring in the first 15 days after the earthquake; traumatic pain then decreased and re-surged at around week five, owing to rebuilding efforts. In the second through fourth week, reports of pain occurred mainly owing to relapses of chronic conditions. Conclusions This study indicates that pain is prevalent during natural disasters, may exhibit a discernible pattern over the weeks following the event, and current drug treatments in this region may be adequate for emergency situations.

  3. Fault lubrication during earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Toro, G; Han, R; Hirose, T; De Paola, N; Nielsen, S; Mizoguchi, K; Ferri, F; Cocco, M; Shimamoto, T

    2011-03-24

    The determination of rock friction at seismic slip rates (about 1 m s(-1)) is of paramount importance in earthquake mechanics, as fault friction controls the stress drop, the mechanical work and the frictional heat generated during slip. Given the difficulty in determining friction by seismological methods, elucidating constraints are derived from experimental studies. Here we review a large set of published and unpublished experiments (∼300) performed in rotary shear apparatus at slip rates of 0.1-2.6 m s(-1). The experiments indicate a significant decrease in friction (of up to one order of magnitude), which we term fault lubrication, both for cohesive (silicate-built, quartz-built and carbonate-built) rocks and non-cohesive rocks (clay-rich, anhydrite, gypsum and dolomite gouges) typical of crustal seismogenic sources. The available mechanical work and the associated temperature rise in the slipping zone trigger a number of physicochemical processes (gelification, decarbonation and dehydration reactions, melting and so on) whose products are responsible for fault lubrication. The similarity between (1) experimental and natural fault products and (2) mechanical work measures resulting from these laboratory experiments and seismological estimates suggests that it is reasonable to extrapolate experimental data to conditions typical of earthquake nucleation depths (7-15 km). It seems that faults are lubricated during earthquakes, irrespective of the fault rock composition and of the specific weakening mechanism involved.

  4. Housing Damage Following Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-01-01

    An automobile lies crushed under the third story of this apartment building in the Marina District after the Oct. 17, 1989, Loma Prieta earthquake. The ground levels are no longer visible because of structural failure and sinking due to liquefaction. Sand and soil grains have faces that can cause friction as they roll and slide against each other, or even cause sticking and form small voids between grains. This complex behavior can cause soil to behave like a liquid under certain conditions such as earthquakes or when powders are handled in industrial processes. Mechanics of Granular Materials (MGM) experiments aboard the Space Shuttle use the microgravity of space to simulate this behavior under conditons that carnot be achieved in laboratory tests on Earth. MGM is shedding light on the behavior of fine-grain materials under low effective stresses. Applications include earthquake engineering, granular flow technologies (such as powder feed systems for pharmaceuticals and fertilizers), and terrestrial and planetary geology. Nine MGM specimens have flown on two Space Shuttle flights. Another three are scheduled to fly on STS-107. The principal investigator is Stein Sture of the University of Colorado at Boulder. Credit: J.K. Nakata, U.S. Geological Survey.

  5. Do Earthquakes Shake Stock Markets?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Susana; Karali, Berna

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines how major earthquakes affected the returns and volatility of aggregate stock market indices in thirty-five financial markets over the last twenty years. Results show that global financial markets are resilient to shocks caused by earthquakes even if these are domestic. Our analysis reveals that, in a few instances, some macroeconomic variables and earthquake characteristics (gross domestic product per capita, trade openness, bilateral trade flows, earthquake magnitude, a tsunami indicator, distance to the epicenter, and number of fatalities) mediate the impact of earthquakes on stock market returns, resulting in a zero net effect. However, the influence of these variables is market-specific, indicating no systematic pattern across global capital markets. Results also demonstrate that stock market volatility is unaffected by earthquakes, except for Japan.

  6. Earthquake engineering for nuclear facilities

    CERN Document Server

    Kuno, Michiya

    2017-01-01

    This book is a comprehensive compilation of earthquake- and tsunami-related technologies and knowledge for the design and construction of nuclear facilities. As such, it covers a wide range of fields including civil engineering, architecture, geotechnical engineering, mechanical engineering, and nuclear engineering, for the development of new technologies providing greater resistance against earthquakes and tsunamis. It is crucial both for students of nuclear energy courses and for young engineers in nuclear power generation industries to understand the basics and principles of earthquake- and tsunami-resistant design of nuclear facilities. In Part I, "Seismic Design of Nuclear Power Plants", the design of nuclear power plants to withstand earthquakes and tsunamis is explained, focusing on buildings, equipment's, and civil engineering structures. In Part II, "Basics of Earthquake Engineering", fundamental knowledge of earthquakes and tsunamis as well as the dynamic response of structures and foundation ground...

  7. Leveraging geodetic data to reduce losses from earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Jessica R.; Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Langbein, John O.; Leith, William S.; Minson, Sarah E.; Svarc, Jerry L.; Thatcher, Wayne R.

    2018-04-23

    Seismic hazard assessments that are based on a variety of data and the best available science, coupled with rapid synthesis of real-time information from continuous monitoring networks to guide post-earthquake response, form a solid foundation for effective earthquake loss reduction. With this in mind, the Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Mission Area (NHMA) engages in a variety of undertakings, both established and emergent, in order to provide high quality products that enable stakeholders to take action in advance of and in response to earthquakes. Examples include the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), development of tools for improved situational awareness such as earthquake early warning (EEW) and operational earthquake forecasting (OEF), research about induced seismicity, and new efforts to advance comprehensive subduction zone science and monitoring. Geodetic observations provide unique and complementary information directly relevant to advancing many aspects of these efforts (fig. 1). EHP scientists have long leveraged geodetic data for a range of influential studies, and they continue to develop innovative observation and analysis methods that push the boundaries of the field of geodesy as applied to natural hazards research. Given the ongoing, rapid improvement in availability, variety, and precision of geodetic measurements, considering ways to fully utilize this observational resource for earthquake loss reduction is timely and essential. This report presents strategies, and the underlying scientific rationale, by which the EHP could achieve the following outcomes: The EHP is an authoritative source for the interpretation of geodetic data and its use for earthquake loss reduction throughout the United States and its territories.The USGS consistently provides timely, high quality geodetic data to stakeholders.Significant earthquakes are better characterized by incorporating geodetic data into USGS

  8. Earthquake resistant design of structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Chang Geun; Kim, Gyu Seok; Lee, Dong Geun

    1990-02-01

    This book tells of occurrence of earthquake and damage analysis of earthquake, equivalent static analysis method, application of equivalent static analysis method, dynamic analysis method like time history analysis by mode superposition method and direct integration method, design spectrum analysis considering an earthquake-resistant design in Korea. Such as analysis model and vibration mode, calculation of base shear, calculation of story seismic load and combine of analysis results.

  9. Triggered creep as a possible mechanism for delayed dynamic triggering of tremor and earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelly, David R.; Peng, Zhigang; Hill, David P.; Aiken, Chastity

    2011-01-01

    The passage of radiating seismic waves generates transient stresses in the Earth's crust that can trigger slip on faults far away from the original earthquake source. The triggered fault slip is detectable in the form of earthquakes and seismic tremor. However, the significance of these triggered events remains controversial, in part because they often occur with some delay, long after the triggering stress has passed. Here we scrutinize the location and timing of tremor on the San Andreas fault between 2001 and 2010 in relation to distant earthquakes. We observe tremor on the San Andreas fault that is initiated by passing seismic waves, yet migrates along the fault at a much slower velocity than the radiating seismic waves. We suggest that the migrating tremor records triggered slow slip of the San Andreas fault as a propagating creep event. We find that the triggered tremor and fault creep can be initiated by distant earthquakes as small as magnitude 5.4 and can persist for several days after the seismic waves have passed. Our observations of prolonged tremor activity provide a clear example of the delayed dynamic triggering of seismic events. Fault creep has been shown to trigger earthquakes, and we therefore suggest that the dynamic triggering of prolonged fault creep could provide a mechanism for the delayed triggering of earthquakes. ?? 2011 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

  10. Twitter Seismology: Earthquake Monitoring and Response in a Social World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowden, D. C.; Earle, P. S.; Guy, M.; Smoczyk, G.

    2011-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public, text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. The potential uses of Twitter for earthquake response include broadcasting earthquake alerts, rapidly detecting widely felt events, qualitatively assessing earthquake damage effects, communicating with the public, and participating in post-event collaboration. Several seismic networks and agencies are currently distributing Twitter earthquake alerts including the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (@LastQuake), Natural Resources Canada (@CANADAquakes), and the Indonesian meteorological agency (@infogempabmg); the USGS will soon distribute alerts via the @USGSted and @USGSbigquakes Twitter accounts. Beyond broadcasting alerts, the USGS is investigating how to use tweets that originate near the epicenter to detect and characterize shaking events. This is possible because people begin tweeting immediately after feeling an earthquake, and their short narratives and exclamations are available for analysis within 10's of seconds of the origin time. Using five months of tweets that contain the word "earthquake" and its equivalent in other languages, we generate a tweet-frequency time series. The time series clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a simple Short-Term-Average / Long-Term-Average algorithm similar to that commonly used to detect seismic phases. As with most auto-detection algorithms, the parameters can be tuned to catch more or less events at the cost of more or less false triggers. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector found 48 globally-distributed, confirmed seismic events with only 2 false triggers. A space-shuttle landing and "The Great California ShakeOut" caused the false triggers. This number of

  11. Clandestine labor migration to Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsay, C

    1992-01-01

    "Illegal migration to Taiwan is a recent phenomenon but with a rapid rate of increase. Most illegal foreign workers enter on visitor's visas and overstay. This paper's detailed analysis of official data reveals that Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand are the major sources, providing a stock of mostly male workers numbering around 40,000. Sociodemographic and attitudinal changes among Taiwanese workers coupled with labor shortages in low-skilled jobs are pressuring the Taiwanese government to formulate plans for a systematic importation of foreign labor." excerpt

  12. The severity of an earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    1997-01-01

    The severity of an earthquake can be expressed in terms of both intensity and magnitude. However, the two terms are quite different, and they are often confused. Intensity is based on the observed effects of ground shaking on people, buildings, and natural features. It varies from place to place within the disturbed region depending on the location of the observer with respect to the earthquake epicenter. Magnitude is related to the amount of seismic energy released at the hypocenter of the earthquake. It is based on the amplitude of the earthquake waves recorded on instruments

  13. Rapid ascent of rhyolitic magma at Chaitén volcano, Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, Jonathan M; Dingwell, Donald B

    2009-10-08

    Rhyolite magma has fuelled some of the Earth's largest explosive volcanic eruptions. Our understanding of these events is incomplete, however, owing to the previous lack of directly observed eruptions. Chaitén volcano, in Chile's northern Patagonia, erupted rhyolite magma unexpectedly and explosively on 1 May 2008 (ref. 2). Chaitén residents felt earthquakes about 24 hours before ash fell in their town and the eruption escalated into a Plinian column. Although such brief seismic forewarning of a major explosive basaltic eruption has been documented, it is unprecedented for silicic magmas. As precursory volcanic unrest relates to magma migration from the storage region to the surface, the very short pre-eruptive warning at Chaitén probably reflects very rapid magma ascent through the sub-volcanic system. Here we present petrological and experimental data that indicate that the hydrous rhyolite magma at Chaitén ascended very rapidly, with velocities of the order of one metre per second. Such rapid ascent implies a transit time from storage depths greater than five kilometres to the near surface in about four hours. This result has implications for hazard mitigation because the rapidity of ascending rhyolite means that future eruptions may provide little warning.

  14. Migration into Rustenburg Local Municipality between 1996 and 2001

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Journal of Social Development in Africa ... between other places and Rustenburg villages and townships around the mines have been the ... People migrate to Rustenburg because they are attracted by the rapidly growing mining and tourism activities in the area. ... Keywords: Migration, tribal, industries, South Africa, mining.

  15. Quasi real-time estimation of the moment magnitude of large earthquake from static strain changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itaba, S.

    2016-12-01

    The 2011 Tohoku-Oki (off the Pacific coast of Tohoku) earthquake, of moment magnitude 9.0, was accompanied by large static strain changes (10-7), as measured by borehole strainmeters operated by the Geological Survey of Japan in the Tokai, Kii Peninsula, and Shikoku regions. A fault model for the earthquake on the boundary between the Pacific and North American plates, based on these borehole strainmeter data, yielded a moment magnitude of 8.7. On the other hand, based on the seismic wave, the prompt report of the magnitude which the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) announced just after earthquake occurrence was 7.9. Such geodetic moment magnitudes, derived from static strain changes, can be estimated almost as rapidly as determinations using seismic waves. I have to verify the validity of this method in some cases. In the case of this earthquake's largest aftershock, which occurred 29 minutes after the mainshock. The prompt report issued by JMA assigned this aftershock a magnitude of 7.3, whereas the moment magnitude derived from borehole strain data is 7.6, which is much closer to the actual moment magnitude of 7.7. In order to grasp the magnitude of a great earthquake earlier, several methods are now being suggested to reduce the earthquake disasters including tsunami. Our simple method of using static strain changes is one of the strong methods for rapid estimation of the magnitude of large earthquakes, and useful to improve the accuracy of Earthquake Early Warning.

  16. Temporal variation of gravity field prior to the Ludian Ms6.5 and Kangding Ms6.3 earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongtao Hao

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Using mobile gravity data from the central area of Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces, the relationship between gravity variation and earthquakes was studied based on the Ludian Ms6.5 earthquake that occurred on August 3rd, 2014, and the Kangding Ms6.3 earthquake that occurred on November 22nd, 2014; the mechanism of gravity variation was also explored. The results are as follows: (1 Prior to both earthquakes, gravity variation exhibited similar characteristics as those observed before both the Tangshan and Wenchuan earthquakes, in which typical precursor anomalies were positive gravity variation near the epicenter and the occurrence of a high-gravity-gradient zone across the epicenter prior to the earthquake. (2 A relatively accurate prediction of the occurrence locations of the two earthquakes was made by the Gravity Network Center of China (GNCC based on these precursor anomalies. In the gravity study report on the 2014 earthquake trends submitted at the end of 2013, the Daofu-Shimian section at the junction of the Xianshuihe and Longmenshan fault zones was noted as an earthquake-risk region with a predicted magnitude of 6.5, which covered the epicenter of the Kangding Ms6.3 earthquake. In another report on earthquake trends in southwestern China submitted in mid-2014, the Lianfeng, Zhaotong fault zone was also classified as an earthquake-risk region with a magnitude of 6.0, and the central area of this region basically overlapped with the epicenter of the Ludian Ms6.5 earthquake. (3 The gravity variation characteristics are reasonably consistent with crustal movements, and deep material migration is likely the primary cause of gravity variation.

  17. Creating a Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Assessment and Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2008-01-01

    Earthquakes have claimed approximately 8 million lives over the last 2,000 years (Dunbar, Lockridge and others, 1992) and fatality rates are likely to continue to rise with increased population and urbanizations of global settlements especially in developing countries. More than 75% of earthquake-related human casualties are caused by the collapse of buildings or structures (Coburn and Spence, 2002). It is disheartening to note that large fractions of the world's population still reside in informal, poorly-constructed & non-engineered dwellings which have high susceptibility to collapse during earthquakes. Moreover, with increasing urbanization half of world's population now lives in urban areas (United Nations, 2001), and half of these urban centers are located in earthquake-prone regions (Bilham, 2004). The poor performance of most building stocks during earthquakes remains a primary societal concern. However, despite this dark history and bleaker future trends, there are no comprehensive global building inventories of sufficient quality and coverage to adequately address and characterize future earthquake losses. Such an inventory is vital both for earthquake loss mitigation and for earthquake disaster response purposes. While the latter purpose is the motivation of this work, we hope that the global building inventory database described herein will find widespread use for other mitigation efforts as well. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER), (Wald, Earle and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential casualties associated with earthquake ground shaking for any region of the world. The casualty estimation is based primarily on (1) rapid estimation of the ground shaking hazard, (2) aggregating the population exposure within different building types, and (3) estimating the casualties from the collapse of vulnerable buildings. Thus, the

  18. Estimating shaking-induced casualties and building damage for global earthquake events: a proposed modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    So, Emily; Spence, Robin

    2013-01-01

    Recent earthquakes such as the Haiti earthquake of 12 January 2010 and the Qinghai earthquake on 14 April 2010 have highlighted the importance of rapid estimation of casualties after the event for humanitarian response. Both of these events resulted in surprisingly high death tolls, casualties and survivors made homeless. In the Mw = 7.0 Haiti earthquake, over 200,000 people perished with more than 300,000 reported injuries and 2 million made homeless. The Mw = 6.9 earthquake in Qinghai resulted in over 2,000 deaths with a further 11,000 people with serious or moderate injuries and 100,000 people have been left homeless in this mountainous region of China. In such events relief efforts can be significantly benefitted by the availability of rapid estimation and mapping of expected casualties. This paper contributes to ongoing global efforts to estimate probable earthquake casualties very rapidly after an earthquake has taken place. The analysis uses the assembled empirical damage and casualty data in the Cambridge Earthquake Impacts Database (CEQID) and explores data by event and across events to test the relationships of building and fatality distributions to the main explanatory variables of building type, building damage level and earthquake intensity. The prototype global casualty estimation model described here uses a semi-empirical approach that estimates damage rates for different classes of buildings present in the local building stock, and then relates fatality rates to the damage rates of each class of buildings. This approach accounts for the effect of the very different types of buildings (by climatic zone, urban or rural location, culture, income level etc), on casualties. The resulting casualty parameters were tested against the overall casualty data from several historical earthquakes in CEQID; a reasonable fit was found.

  19. MyShake: A smartphone seismic network for earthquake early warning and beyond.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Qingkai; Allen, Richard M; Schreier, Louis; Kwon, Young-Woo

    2016-02-01

    Large magnitude earthquakes in urban environments continue to kill and injure tens to hundreds of thousands of people, inflicting lasting societal and economic disasters. Earthquake early warning (EEW) provides seconds to minutes of warning, allowing people to move to safe zones and automated slowdown and shutdown of transit and other machinery. The handful of EEW systems operating around the world use traditional seismic and geodetic networks that exist only in a few nations. Smartphones are much more prevalent than traditional networks and contain accelerometers that can also be used to detect earthquakes. We report on the development of a new type of seismic system, MyShake, that harnesses personal/private smartphone sensors to collect data and analyze earthquakes. We show that smartphones can record magnitude 5 earthquakes at distances of 10 km or less and develop an on-phone detection capability to separate earthquakes from other everyday shakes. Our proof-of-concept system then collects earthquake data at a central site where a network detection algorithm confirms that an earthquake is under way and estimates the location and magnitude in real time. This information can then be used to issue an alert of forthcoming ground shaking. MyShake could be used to enhance EEW in regions with traditional networks and could provide the only EEW capability in regions without. In addition, the seismic waveforms recorded could be used to deliver rapid microseism maps, study impacts on buildings, and possibly image shallow earth structure and earthquake rupture kinematics.

  20. Radon depth migration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hildebrand, S.T.; Carroll, R.J.

    1993-01-01

    A depth migration method is presented that used Radon-transformed common-source seismograms as input. It is shown that the Radon depth migration method can be extended to spatially varying velocity depth models by using asymptotic ray theory (ART) to construct wavefield continuation operators. These operators downward continue an incident receiver-array plane wave and an assumed point-source wavefield into the subsurface. The migration velocity model is constrain to have longer characteristic wavelengths than the dominant source wavelength such that the ART approximations for the continuation operators are valid. This method is used successfully to migrate two synthetic data examples: (1) a point diffractor, and (2) a dipping layer and syncline interface model. It is shown that the Radon migration method has a computational advantage over the standard Kirchhoff migration method in that fewer rays are computed in a main memory implementation

  1. Foreshocks, aftershocks, and earthquake probabilities: Accounting for the landers earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Lucile M.

    1994-01-01

    The equation to determine the probability that an earthquake occurring near a major fault will be a foreshock to a mainshock on that fault is modified to include the case of aftershocks to a previous earthquake occurring near the fault. The addition of aftershocks to the background seismicity makes its less probable that an earthquake will be a foreshock, because nonforeshocks have become more common. As the aftershocks decay with time, the probability that an earthquake will be a foreshock increases. However, fault interactions between the first mainshock and the major fault can increase the long-term probability of a characteristic earthquake on that fault, which will, in turn, increase the probability that an event is a foreshock, compensating for the decrease caused by the aftershocks.

  2. ILLEGAL MIGRATION-CONCEPTUAL DELIMITATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CRISTINA FLORINA POPESCU (PANAIT

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Illegal migration is a mobile phenomenon, which ignores national borders, a threat that originates outside the community and extends to Western societies. This phenomenon is becoming larger and irregular migrants are often in a precarious situation and exposed to the criminals involved in various manifestations of organized crime. The future risk factors of the illegal migration are the demographic bomb, because the population is decreasing in European countries and increasing rapidly in poorer countries, droughts, floods, deforestation, that cause conflicts between climate refugees , extreme poverty, totalitarian regimes, epidemics, can trigger millions of people, the elderly and the working population imbalance which leads to the permanent import of immigrants To combat this phenomenon, states must engage and cooperate with each other. Measures taken by states must balance their integration policy for immigrants, legally residents and asylum policy to comply with international conventions. Also, states must adopt anti-immigrant policies, consisting of subordination visa policy to the interests of international security and exchange of information and, not least, to continue the Schengen process, as a value of humanitarian law applied in the field. The aim of the research is to characterize this dangerous phenomenon for the society and the goal is to identify strategies to combat illegal migration.

  3. Hydrothermal response to a volcano-tectonic earthquake swarm, Lassen, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Shelly, David R.; Hsieh, Paul A.; Clor, Laura; P.H. Seward,; Evans, William C.

    2015-01-01

    The increasing capability of seismic, geodetic, and hydrothermal observation networks allows recognition of volcanic unrest that could previously have gone undetected, creating an imperative to diagnose and interpret unrest episodes. A November 2014 earthquake swarm near Lassen Volcanic National Park, California, which included the largest earthquake in the area in more than 60 years, was accompanied by a rarely observed outburst of hydrothermal fluids. Although the earthquake swarm likely reflects upward migration of endogenous H2O-CO2 fluids in the source region, there is no evidence that such fluids emerged at the surface. Instead, shaking from the modest sized (moment magnitude 3.85) but proximal earthquake caused near-vent permeability increases that triggered increased outflow of hydrothermal fluids already present and equilibrated in a local hydrothermal aquifer. Long-term, multiparametric monitoring at Lassen and other well-instrumented volcanoes enhances interpretation of unrest and can provide a basis for detailed physical modeling.

  4. DO GIANT PLANETS SURVIVE TYPE II MIGRATION?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasegawa, Yasuhiro; Ida, Shigeru

    2013-01-01

    Planetary migration is one of the most serious problems to systematically understand the observations of exoplanets. We clarify that the theoretically predicted type II, migration (like type I migration) is too fast, by developing detailed analytical arguments in which the timescale of type II migration is compared with the disk lifetime. In the disk-dominated regime, the type II migration timescale is characterized by a local viscous diffusion timescale, while the disk lifetime is characterized by a global diffusion timescale that is much longer than the local one. Even in the planet-dominated regime where the inertia of the planet mass reduces the migration speed, the timescale is still shorter than the disk lifetime except in the final disk evolution stage where the total disk mass decays below the planet mass. This suggests that most giant planets plunge into the central stars within the disk lifetime, and it contradicts the exoplanet observations that gas giants are piled up at r ∼> 1 AU. We examine additional processes that may arise in protoplanetary disks: dead zones, photoevaporation of gas, and gas flow across a gap formed by a type II migrator. Although they make the type II migration timescale closer to the disk lifetime, we show that none of them can act as an effective barrier for rapid type II migration with the current knowledge of these processes. We point out that gas flow across a gap and the fraction of the flow accreted onto the planets are uncertain and they may have the potential to solve the problem. Much more detailed investigation for each process may be needed to explain the observed distribution of gas giants in extrasolar planetary systems

  5. Migration into art

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Anne Ring

    This book addresses a topic of increasing importance to artists, art historians and scholars of cultural studies, migration studies and international relations: migration as a profoundly transforming force that has remodelled artistic and art institutional practices across the world. It explores...... contemporary art's critical engagement with migration and globalisation as a key source for improving our understanding of how these processes transform identities, cultures, institutions and geopolitics. The author explores three interwoven issues of enduring interest: identity and belonging, institutional...

  6. Regional Redistribution and Migration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manasse, Paolo; Schultz, Christian

    We study a model with free migration between a rich and a poor region. Since there is congestion, the rich region has an incentive to give the poor region a transfer in order to reduce immigration. Faced with free migration, the rich region voluntarily chooses a transfer, which turns out...... to be equal to that a social planner would choose. Provided migration occurs in equilibrium, this conclusion holds even in the presence of moderate mobility costs. However, large migration costs will lead to suboptimal transfers in the market solution...

  7. Internal migration: why do Filipinos move?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolipa, N

    1980-01-01

    The rapid movement of Filipinos from 1 part of the Philippines to another is not a new phenomenon, but mobility has been increasing. A study conducted by Peter C. Smith revealed that interprovincial lifetime mobility of the national population increased from 15.8% in 1960 to 17.6% in 1970, while interregional mobility increased from 12.7% to 13.4%. People still disagree as to whether the size and rate of growth of the population are excessive, but there seems to be total consensus as regards its spatial imbalance. Because internal migration appears to be an important factor in national development, a need exists to examine different aspects of internal migration, such as the directions taken by migration flows, the migrants' reasons for moving, the migrants' characteristics, the migrants' success or lack of success at their places of destination, the social problems accompanying internal migration, effforts to deal with the problems caused by internal migration, and the implications of migration trends for policy and for the country's development programs. The most dominant migration trend in the Philippines in recent years has been toward the urban, or more accurately the suburban, areas adjacent to Metropolitan Manila. The city of Manila itself suffered a net outflow, further pointing to the trend toward suburbanization. Migration flows are primarily caused by economic reasons. About one half the sample of a Filipinas Foundation Study moved to provinces other than the province of birth in the pursuit of employment and other economic opportunities. A study of the country's migrant population age 15 and older showed that 53% of migrants were female. For male migrants, age ranges from 20-40; it ranges from 15-35 for females. Where cash income is concerned, migrants in Pernia's study of rural urban migration were better off than nonmigrants. Migrants were, on the average, as well off as native urbanites or metropolitanites. Among the more significant points raised by

  8. Development of fragility functions to estimate homelessness after an earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brink, Susan A.; Daniell, James; Khazai, Bijan; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2014-05-01

    Immediately after an earthquake, many stakeholders need to make decisions about their response. These decisions often need to be made in a data poor environment as accurate information on the impact can take months or even years to be collected and publicized. Social fragility functions have been developed and applied to provide an estimate of the impact in terms of building damage, deaths and injuries in near real time. These rough estimates can help governments and response agencies determine what aid may be required which can improve their emergency response and facilitate planning for longer term response. Due to building damage, lifeline outages, fear of aftershocks, or other causes, people may become displaced or homeless after an earthquake. Especially in cold and dangerous locations, the rapid provision of safe emergency shelter can be a lifesaving necessity. However, immediately after an event there is little information available about the number of homeless, their locations and whether they require public shelter to aid the response agencies in decision making. In this research, we analyze homelessness after historic earthquakes using the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database. CATDAT includes information on the hazard as well as the physical and social impact of over 7200 damaging earthquakes from 1900-2013 (Daniell et al. 2011). We explore the relationship of both earthquake characteristics and area characteristics with homelessness after the earthquake. We consider modelled variables such as population density, HDI, year, measures of ground motion intensity developed in Daniell (2014) over the time period from 1900-2013 as well as temperature. Using a base methodology based on that used for PAGER fatality fragility curves developed by Jaiswal and Wald (2010), but using regression through time using the socioeconomic parameters developed in Daniell et al. (2012) for "socioeconomic fragility functions", we develop a set of fragility curves that can be

  9. Generation of earthquake signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjell, G.

    1994-01-01

    Seismic verification can be performed either as a full scale test on a shaker table or as numerical calculations. In both cases it is necessary to have an earthquake acceleration time history. This report describes generation of such time histories by filtering white noise. Analogue and digital filtering methods are compared. Different methods of predicting the response spectrum of a white noise signal filtered by a band-pass filter are discussed. Prediction of both the average response level and the statistical variation around this level are considered. Examples with both the IEEE 301 standard response spectrum and a ground spectrum suggested for Swedish nuclear power stations are included in the report

  10. Earthquakes Threaten Many American Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Nancy E.

    2010-01-01

    Millions of U.S. children attend schools that are not safe from earthquakes, even though they are in earthquake-prone zones. Several cities and states have worked to identify and repair unsafe buildings, but many others have done little or nothing to fix the problem. The reasons for ignoring the problem include political and financial ones, but…

  11. Make an Earthquake: Ground Shaking!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savasci, Funda

    2011-01-01

    The main purposes of this activity are to help students explore possible factors affecting the extent of the damage of earthquakes and learn the ways to reduce earthquake damages. In these inquiry-based activities, students have opportunities to develop science process skills and to build an understanding of the relationship among science,…

  12. Automated Determination of Magnitude and Source Length of Large Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D.; Kawakatsu, H.; Zhuang, J.; Mori, J. J.; Maeda, T.; Tsuruoka, H.; Zhao, X.

    2017-12-01

    Rapid determination of earthquake magnitude is of importance for estimating shaking damages, and tsunami hazards. However, due to the complexity of source process, accurately estimating magnitude for great earthquakes in minutes after origin time is still a challenge. Mw is an accurate estimate for large earthquakes. However, calculating Mw requires the whole wave trains including P, S, and surface phases, which takes tens of minutes to reach stations at tele-seismic distances. To speed up the calculation, methods using W phase and body wave are developed for fast estimating earthquake sizes. Besides these methods that involve Green's Functions and inversions, there are other approaches that use empirically simulated relations to estimate earthquake magnitudes, usually for large earthquakes. The nature of simple implementation and straightforward calculation made these approaches widely applied at many institutions such as the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the USGS. Here we developed an approach that was originated from Hara [2007], estimating magnitude by considering P-wave displacement and source duration. We introduced a back-projection technique [Wang et al., 2016] instead to estimate source duration using array data from a high-sensitive seismograph network (Hi-net). The introduction of back-projection improves the method in two ways. Firstly, the source duration could be accurately determined by seismic array. Secondly, the results can be more rapidly calculated, and data derived from farther stations are not required. We purpose to develop an automated system for determining fast and reliable source information of large shallow seismic events based on real time data of a dense regional array and global data, for earthquakes that occur at distance of roughly 30°- 85° from the array center. This system can offer fast and robust estimates of magnitudes and rupture extensions of large earthquakes in 6 to 13 min (plus

  13. Earthquake Catalogue of the Caucasus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godoladze, T.; Gok, R.; Tvaradze, N.; Tumanova, N.; Gunia, I.; Onur, T.

    2016-12-01

    The Caucasus has a documented historical catalog stretching back to the beginning of the Christian era. Most of the largest historical earthquakes prior to the 19th century are assumed to have occurred on active faults of the Greater Caucasus. Important earthquakes include the Samtskhe earthquake of 1283 (Ms˜7.0, Io=9); Lechkhumi-Svaneti earthquake of 1350 (Ms˜7.0, Io=9); and the Alaverdi earthquake of 1742 (Ms˜6.8, Io=9). Two significant historical earthquakes that may have occurred within the Javakheti plateau in the Lesser Caucasus are the Tmogvi earthquake of 1088 (Ms˜6.5, Io=9) and the Akhalkalaki earthquake of 1899 (Ms˜6.3, Io =8-9). Large earthquakes that occurred in the Caucasus within the period of instrumental observation are: Gori 1920; Tabatskuri 1940; Chkhalta 1963; Racha earthquake of 1991 (Ms=7.0), is the largest event ever recorded in the region; Barisakho earthquake of 1992 (M=6.5); Spitak earthquake of 1988 (Ms=6.9, 100 km south of Tbilisi), which killed over 50,000 people in Armenia. Recently, permanent broadband stations have been deployed across the region as part of the various national networks (Georgia (˜25 stations), Azerbaijan (˜35 stations), Armenia (˜14 stations)). The data from the last 10 years of observation provides an opportunity to perform modern, fundamental scientific investigations. In order to improve seismic data quality a catalog of all instrumentally recorded earthquakes has been compiled by the IES (Institute of Earth Sciences/NSMC, Ilia State University) in the framework of regional joint project (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, USA) "Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) in the Caucasus. The catalogue consists of more then 80,000 events. First arrivals of each earthquake of Mw>=4.0 have been carefully examined. To reduce calculation errors, we corrected arrivals from the seismic records. We improved locations of the events and recalculate Moment magnitudes in order to obtain unified magnitude

  14. ELER software - a new tool for urban earthquake loss assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancilar, U.; Tuzun, C.; Yenidogan, C.; Erdik, M.

    2010-12-01

    Rapid loss estimation after potentially damaging earthquakes is critical for effective emergency response and public information. A methodology and software package, ELER-Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine, for rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses throughout the Euro-Mediterranean region was developed under the Joint Research Activity-3 (JRA3) of the EC FP6 Project entitled "Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology-NERIES". Recently, a new version (v2.0) of ELER software has been released. The multi-level methodology developed is capable of incorporating regional variability and uncertainty originating from ground motion predictions, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships. Although primarily intended for quasi real-time estimation of earthquake shaking and losses, the routine is also equally capable of incorporating scenario-based earthquake loss assessments. This paper introduces the urban earthquake loss assessment module (Level 2) of the ELER software which makes use of the most detailed inventory databases of physical and social elements at risk in combination with the analytical vulnerability relationships and building damage-related casualty vulnerability models for the estimation of building damage and casualty distributions, respectively. Spectral capacity-based loss assessment methodology and its vital components are presented. The analysis methods of the Level 2 module, i.e. Capacity Spectrum Method (ATC-40, 1996), Modified Acceleration-Displacement Response Spectrum Method (FEMA 440, 2005), Reduction Factor Method (Fajfar, 2000) and Coefficient Method (ASCE 41-06, 2006), are applied to the selected building types for validation and verification purposes. The damage estimates are compared to the results obtained from the other studies available in the literature, i.e. SELENA v4.0 (Molina et al., 2008) and

  15. The 2014 Greeley, Colorado Earthquakes: Science, Industry, Regulation, and Media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeck, W. L.; Sheehan, A. F.; Weingarten, M.; Nakai, J.; Ge, S.

    2014-12-01

    first time that such action had been taken by the COGCC. This presentation provides an overview of the interactions among academic researchers, industry, media, and regulators during the period of rapid response to this earthquake sequence, and the role of seismology in informing those responses.

  16. The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Daniell

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes.

    Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon.

    Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected, and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured.

    Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto ($214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>$300 billion USD at time of writing, 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product, exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index, and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons.

    This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global

  17. The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, J. E.; Khazai, B.; Wenzel, F.; Vervaeck, A.

    2011-08-01

    The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture) database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes. Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon. Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected), and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured). Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto (214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars) compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>300 billion USD at time of writing), 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index), and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons. This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global reinsurance field.

  18. Areas prone to slow slip events impede earthquake rupture propagation and promote afterslip

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolandone, Frederique; Nocquet, Jean-Mathieu; Mothes, Patricia A.; Jarrin, Paul; Vallée, Martin; Cubas, Nadaya; Hernandez, Stephen; Plain, Morgan; Vaca, Sandro; Font, Yvonne

    2018-01-01

    At subduction zones, transient aseismic slip occurs either as afterslip following a large earthquake or as episodic slow slip events during the interseismic period. Afterslip and slow slip events are usually considered as distinct processes occurring on separate fault areas governed by different frictional properties. Continuous GPS (Global Positioning System) measurements following the 2016 Mw (moment magnitude) 7.8 Ecuador earthquake reveal that large and rapid afterslip developed at discrete areas of the megathrust that had previously hosted slow slip events. Regardless of whether they were locked or not before the earthquake, these areas appear to persistently release stress by aseismic slip throughout the earthquake cycle and outline the seismic rupture, an observation potentially leading to a better anticipation of future large earthquakes. PMID:29404404

  19. Impacts of the 2010 Haitian earthquake in the diaspora: findings from Little Haiti, Miami, FL.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobetz, Erin; Menard, Janelle; Kish, Jonathan; Bishop, Ian; Hazan, Gabrielle; Nicolas, Guerda

    2013-04-01

    In January 2010, a massive earthquake struck Haiti resulting in unprecedented damage. Little attention, however, has focused on the earthquake's mental health impact in the Haitian diaspora community. As part of an established community-based participatory research initiative in Little Haiti, the predominately Haitian neighborhood in Miami, FL, USA, community health workers conducted surveys with neighborhood residents about earthquake-related losses, coping strategies, and depressive/traumatic symptomology. Findings reveal the earthquake strongly impacted the diaspora community and highlights prominent coping strategies. Following the earthquake, only a small percentage of participants self-reported engaging in any negative health behaviors. Instead, a majority relied on their social networks for support. This study contributes to the discourse on designing culturally-responsive mental health initiatives for the Haitian diaspora and the ability of existing community-academic partnerships to rapidly adapt to community needs.

  20. Assessment of earthquake effects - contribution from online communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Amico, Sebastiano; Agius, Matthew; Galea, Pauline

    2014-05-01

    The rapid increase of social media and online newspapers in the last years have given the opportunity to make a national investigation on macroseismic effects on the Maltese Islands based on felt earthquake reports. A magnitude 4.1 earthquake struck close to Malta on Sunday 24th April 2011 at 13:02 GMT. The earthquake was preceded and followed by a series of smaller magnitude quakes throughout the day, most of which were felt by the locals on the island. The continuous news media coverage during the day and the extensive sharing of the news item on social media resulted in a strong public response to fill in the 'Did you feel it?' online form on the website of the Seismic Monitoring and Research Unit (SMRU) at the University of Malta (http://seismic.research.um.edu.mt/). The results yield interesting information about the demographics of the island, and the different felt experiences possibly relating to geological settings and diverse structural and age-classified buildings. Based on this case study, the SMRU is in the process of developing a mobile phone application dedicated to share earthquake information to the local community. The application will automatically prompt users to fill in a simplified 'Did you feel it?' report to potentially felt earthquakes. Automatic location using Global Positioning Systems can be incorporated to provide a 'real time' intensity map that can be used by the Civil Protection Department.

  1. Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the earthquake background rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Der Elst, Nicholas

    2017-01-01

    Aftershocks often occur within cascades of triggered seismicity in which each generation of aftershocks triggers an additional generation, and so on. The rate of earthquakes in any particular generation follows Omori's law, going approximately as 1/t. This function decays rapidly, but is heavy-tailed, and aftershock sequences may persist for long times at a rate that is difficult to discriminate from background. It is likely that some apparently spontaneous earthquakes in the observational catalogue are orphaned aftershocks of long-past main shocks. To assess the relative proportion of orphaned aftershocks in the apparent background rate, I develop an extension of the ETAS model that explicitly includes the expected contribution of orphaned aftershocks to the apparent background rate. Applying this model to California, I find that the apparent background rate can be almost entirely attributed to orphaned aftershocks, depending on the assumed duration of an aftershock sequence. This implies an earthquake cascade with a branching ratio (the average number of directly triggered aftershocks per main shock) of nearly unity. In physical terms, this implies that very few earthquakes are completely isolated from the perturbing effects of other earthquakes within the fault system. Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the ETAS model gives more accurate estimates of the true background rate, and more realistic expectations for long-term seismicity patterns.

  2. Pushing the pace of tree species migration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eli D Lazarus

    Full Text Available Plants and animals have responded to past climate changes by migrating with habitable environments, sometimes shifting the boundaries of their geographic ranges by tens of kilometers per year or more. Species migrating in response to present climate conditions, however, must contend with landscapes fragmented by anthropogenic disturbance. We consider this problem in the context of wind-dispersed tree species. Mechanisms of long-distance seed dispersal make these species capable of rapid migration rates. Models of species-front migration suggest that even tree species with the capacity for long-distance dispersal will be unable to keep pace with future spatial changes in temperature gradients, exclusive of habitat fragmentation effects. Here we present a numerical model that captures the salient dynamics of migration by long-distance dispersal for a generic tree species. We then use the model to explore the possible effects of assisted colonization within a fragmented landscape under a simulated tree-planting scheme. Our results suggest that an assisted-colonization program could accelerate species-front migration rates enough to match the speed of climate change, but such a program would involve an environmental-sustainability intervention at a massive scale.

  3. Earthquake Hazard for Aswan High Dam Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Awad

    2016-04-01

    Earthquake activity and seismic hazard analysis are important components of the seismic aspects for very essential structures such as major dams. The Aswan High Dam (AHD) created the second man-made reservoir in the world (Lake Nasser) and is constructed near urban areas pose a high-risk potential for downstream life and property. The Dam area is one of the seismically active regions in Egypt and is occupied with several cross faults, which are dominant in the east-west and north-south. Epicenters were found to cluster around active faults in the northern part of Lake and AHD location. The space-time distribution and the relation of the seismicity with the lake water level fluctuations were studied. The Aswan seismicity separates into shallow and deep seismic zones, between 0 and 14 and 14 and 30 km, respectively. These two seismic zones behave differently over time, as indicated by the seismicity rate, lateral extent, b-value, and spatial clustering. It is characterized by earthquake swarm sequences showing activation of the clustering-events over time and space. The effect of the North African drought (1982 to present) is clearly seen in the reservoir water level. As it decreased and left the most active fault segments uncovered, the shallow activity was found to be more sensitive to rapid discharging than to the filling. This study indicates that geology, topography, lineations in seismicity, offsets in the faults, changes in fault trends and focal mechanisms are closely related. No relation was found between earthquake activity and both-ground water table fluctuations and water temperatures measured in wells located around the Kalabsha area. The peak ground acceleration is estimated in the dam site based on strong ground motion simulation. This seismic hazard analyses have indicated that AHD is stable with the present seismicity. The earthquake epicenters have recently took place approximately 5 km west of the AHD structure. This suggests that AHD dam must be

  4. Samtidskunst og migration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Anne Ring

    2010-01-01

    "Samtidskunst og migration. En oversigt over faglitteraturen" er en forskningsoversigt der gør status over hvad der hidtil er skrevet inden for det kunsthistoriske område om vor tids billedkunst og migration som politisk, socialt og kulturelt fænomen, primært i forbindelse med immigration til...

  5. The Great Migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trotter, Joe William, Jr.

    2002-01-01

    Describes the migration of African Americans in the United States and the reasons why African Americans migrated from the south. Focuses on issues, such as the effect of World War I, the opportunities offered in the north, and the emergence of a black industrial working class. (CMK)

  6. Migrating Art History

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ørum, Tania

    2012-01-01

    Review of Hiroko Ikegami, The Great Migrator. Robert Rauschenberg and the Global Rise of American Art. Cambridge Mass., The MIT Press, 2010. 277 pages. ISBN 978-0-262-01425-0.......Review of Hiroko Ikegami, The Great Migrator. Robert Rauschenberg and the Global Rise of American Art. Cambridge Mass., The MIT Press, 2010. 277 pages. ISBN 978-0-262-01425-0....

  7. College Student Migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenske, Robert H.; And Others

    This study examines the background characteristics of two large national samples of first-time enrolled freshmen who (a) attended college within their state of residence but away from their home community, (b) migrated to a college in an adjacent state, (c) migrated to a college in a distant state, and (d) attended college in their home community.…

  8. Migration, klima og sundhed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tellier, Siri; Carballo, Manuel

    2009-01-01

    Many tentative connections have been postulated between migration and climate. This article points to rural-urban migration, particularly into low elevation urban slums prone to flooding as an issue needing urgent attention by health professionals. It also notes the no-man's land in which environ...

  9. Migration in Burkina Faso

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wouterse, F.S.

    2007-01-01

    Migration plays an important role in development and as a strategy for poverty reduction. A recent World Bank investigation finds a significant positive relationship between international migration and poverty reduction at the country level (Adams and Page 2003). Burkina Faso, whose conditions for

  10. Migration, Narration, Identity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leese, Peter

    (co-editor with Carly McLaughlin and Wladyslaw Witalisz) This book presents articles resulting from joint research on the representations of migration conducted in connection with the Erasmus Intensive Programme entitled «Migration and Narration» taught to groups of international students over...

  11. Evaluation of Earthquake-Induced Effects on Neighbouring Faults and Volcanoes: Application to the 2016 Pedernales Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bejar, M.; Alvarez Gomez, J. A.; Staller, A.; Luna, M. P.; Perez Lopez, R.; Monserrat, O.; Chunga, K.; Herrera, G.; Jordá, L.; Lima, A.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    It has long been recognized that earthquakes change the stress in the upper crust around the fault rupture and can influence the short-term behaviour of neighbouring faults and volcanoes. Rapid estimates of these stress changes can provide the authorities managing the post-disaster situation with a useful tool to identify and monitor potential threads and to update the estimates of seismic and volcanic hazard in a region. Space geodesy is now routinely used following an earthquake to image the displacement of the ground and estimate the rupture geometry and the distribution of slip. Using the obtained source model, it is possible to evaluate the remaining moment deficit and to infer the stress changes on nearby faults and volcanoes produced by the earthquake, which can be used to identify which faults and volcanoes are brought closer to failure or activation. Although these procedures are commonly used today, the transference of these results to the authorities managing the post-disaster situation is not straightforward and thus its usefulness is reduced in practice. Here we propose a methodology to evaluate the potential influence of an earthquake on nearby faults and volcanoes and create easy-to-understand maps for decision-making support after an earthquake. We apply this methodology to the Mw 7.8, 2016 Ecuador earthquake. Using Sentinel-1 SAR and continuous GPS data, we measure the coseismic ground deformation and estimate the distribution of slip. Then we use this model to evaluate the moment deficit on the subduction interface and changes of stress on the surrounding faults and volcanoes. The results are compared with the seismic and volcanic events that have occurred after the earthquake. We discuss potential and limits of the methodology and the lessons learnt from discussion with local authorities.

  12. The Globalisation of migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Mesić

    2002-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper demonstrates that contemporary international migration is a constitutive part of the globalisation process. After defining the concepts of globalisation and the globalisation of migration, the author discusses six key themes, linking globalisation and international migration (“global cities”, the scale of migration; diversification of migration flows; globalisation of science and education; international migration and citizenship; emigrant communities and new identities. First, in accordance with Saskia Sassen’s analysis, the author rejects the wide-spread notion that unqualified migrants have lost an (important role in »global cities«, i.e. in the centres of the new (global economy. Namely, the post-modern service sector cannot function without the support of a wide range of auxiliary unqualified workers. Second, a critical comparison with traditional overseas mass migration to the USA at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries indicates that present international migration is, perhaps, less extensive – however it is important to take into consideration various limitations that previously did not exist, and thus the present migration potential is in really greater. Third, globalisation is more evident in a diversification of the forms of migration: the source area of migrants to the New World and Europe has expanded to include new regions in the world; new immigration areas have arisen (the Middle East, new industrial countries of the Far East, South Europe; intra-regional migration has intensified. Forth, globalisation is linked to an increased migration of experts and the pessimistic notion of a brain drain has been replaced by the optimistic idea of a brain gain. Fifth, contemporary international migration has been associated with a crisis of the national model of citizenship. Sixth, the interlinking of (migrant cultural communities regardless of distance and the physical proximity of cultural centres (the

  13. Inter-Disciplinary Validation of Pre Earthquake Signals. Case Study for Major Earthquakes in Asia (2004-2010) and for 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouzounov, D.; Pulinets, S.; Hattori, K.; Liu, J.-Y.; Yang. T. Y.; Parrot, M.; Kafatos, M.; Taylor, P.

    2012-01-01

    We carried out multi-sensors observations in our investigation of phenomena preceding major earthquakes. Our approach is based on a systematic analysis of several physical and environmental parameters, which we found, associated with the earthquake processes: thermal infrared radiation, temperature and concentration of electrons in the ionosphere, radon/ion activities, and air temperature/humidity in the atmosphere. We used satellite and ground observations and interpreted them with the Lithosphere-Atmosphere- Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model, one of possible paradigms we study and support. We made two independent continues hind-cast investigations in Taiwan and Japan for total of 102 earthquakes (M>6) occurring from 2004-2011. We analyzed: (1) ionospheric electromagnetic radiation, plasma and energetic electron measurements from DEMETER (2) emitted long-wavelength radiation (OLR) from NOAA/AVHRR and NASA/EOS; (3) radon/ion variations (in situ data); and 4) GPS Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements collected from space and ground based observations. This joint analysis of ground and satellite data has shown that one to six (or more) days prior to the largest earthquakes there were anomalies in all of the analyzed physical observations. For the latest March 11 , 2011 Tohoku earthquake, our analysis shows again the same relationship between several independent observations characterizing the lithosphere /atmosphere coupling. On March 7th we found a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation observed from satellite data and subsequently an anomaly developed near the epicenter. The GPS/TEC data indicated an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. Beginning from this day we confirmed an abnormal TEC variation over the epicenter in the lower ionosphere. These findings revealed the existence of atmospheric and ionospheric phenomena occurring prior to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, which indicated new evidence of a distinct

  14. Malaysia and forced migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arzura Idris

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the phenomenon of “forced migration” in Malaysia. It examines the nature of forced migration, the challenges faced by Malaysia, the policy responses and their impact on the country and upon the forced migrants. It considers forced migration as an event hosting multifaceted issues related and relevant to forced migrants and suggests that Malaysia has been preoccupied with the issue of forced migration movements. This is largely seen in various responses invoked from Malaysia due to “south-south forced migration movements.” These responses are, however, inadequate in terms of commitment to the international refugee regime. While Malaysia did respond to economic and migration challenges, the paper asserts that such efforts are futile if she ignores issues critical to forced migrants.

  15. A rare moderate‐sized (Mw 4.9) earthquake in Kansas: Rupture process of the Milan, Kansas, earthquake of 12 November 2014 and its relationship to fluid injection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choy, George; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Yeck, William; McNamara, Daniel E.; Mueller, Charles; Boyd, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    The largest recorded earthquake in Kansas occurred northeast of Milan on 12 November 2014 (Mw 4.9) in a region previously devoid of significant seismic activity. Applying multistation processing to data from local stations, we are able to detail the rupture process and rupture geometry of the mainshock, identify the causative fault plane, and delineate the expansion and extent of the subsequent seismic activity. The earthquake followed rapid increases of fluid injection by multiple wastewater injection wells in the vicinity of the fault. The source parameters and behavior of the Milan earthquake and foreshock–aftershock sequence are similar to characteristics of other earthquakes induced by wastewater injection into permeable formations overlying crystalline basement. This earthquake also provides an opportunity to test the empirical relation that uses felt area to estimate moment magnitude for historical earthquakes for Kansas.

  16. Earthquake Emergency Education in Dushanbe, Tajikistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohadjer, Solmaz; Bendick, Rebecca; Halvorson, Sarah J.; Saydullaev, Umed; Hojiboev, Orifjon; Stickler, Christine; Adam, Zachary R.

    2010-01-01

    We developed a middle school earthquake science and hazards curriculum to promote earthquake awareness to students in the Central Asian country of Tajikistan. These materials include pre- and post-assessment activities, six science activities describing physical processes related to earthquakes, five activities on earthquake hazards and mitigation…

  17. Determination of Design Basis Earthquake ground motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Muneaki

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes principle of determining of Design Basis Earthquake following the Examination Guide, some examples on actual sites including earthquake sources to be considered, earthquake response spectrum and simulated seismic waves. In sppendix of this paper, furthermore, seismic safety review for N.P.P designed before publication of the Examination Guide was summarized with Check Basis Earthquake. (J.P.N.)

  18. Determination of Design Basis Earthquake ground motion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kato, Muneaki [Japan Atomic Power Co., Tokyo (Japan)

    1997-03-01

    This paper describes principle of determining of Design Basis Earthquake following the Examination Guide, some examples on actual sites including earthquake sources to be considered, earthquake response spectrum and simulated seismic waves. In sppendix of this paper, furthermore, seismic safety review for N.P.P designed before publication of the Examination Guide was summarized with Check Basis Earthquake. (J.P.N.)

  19. Estimating economic losses from earthquakes using an empirical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2013-01-01

    We extended the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) empirical fatality estimation methodology proposed by Jaiswal et al. (2009) to rapidly estimate economic losses after significant earthquakes worldwide. The requisite model inputs are shaking intensity estimates made by the ShakeMap system, the spatial distribution of population available from the LandScan database, modern and historic country or sub-country population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, and economic loss data from Munich Re's historical earthquakes catalog. We developed a strategy to approximately scale GDP-based economic exposure for historical and recent earthquakes in order to estimate economic losses. The process consists of using a country-specific multiplicative factor to accommodate the disparity between economic exposure and the annual per capita GDP, and it has proven successful in hindcast-ing past losses. Although loss, population, shaking estimates, and economic data used in the calibration process are uncertain, approximate ranges of losses can be estimated for the primary purpose of gauging the overall scope of the disaster and coordinating response. The proposed methodology is both indirect and approximate and is thus best suited as a rapid loss estimation model for applications like the PAGER system.

  20. Physics of Earthquake Rupture Propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Shiqing; Fukuyama, Eiichi; Sagy, Amir; Doan, Mai-Linh

    2018-05-01

    A comprehensive understanding of earthquake rupture propagation requires the study of not only the sudden release of elastic strain energy during co-seismic slip, but also of other processes that operate at a variety of spatiotemporal scales. For example, the accumulation of the elastic strain energy usually takes decades to hundreds of years, and rupture propagation and termination modify the bulk properties of the surrounding medium that can influence the behavior of future earthquakes. To share recent findings in the multiscale investigation of earthquake rupture propagation, we held a session entitled "Physics of Earthquake Rupture Propagation" during the 2016 American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting in San Francisco. The session included 46 poster and 32 oral presentations, reporting observations of natural earthquakes, numerical and experimental simulations of earthquake ruptures, and studies of earthquake fault friction. These presentations and discussions during and after the session suggested a need to document more formally the research findings, particularly new observations and views different from conventional ones, complexities in fault zone properties and loading conditions, the diversity of fault slip modes and their interactions, the evaluation of observational and model uncertainties, and comparison between empirical and physics-based models. Therefore, we organize this Special Issue (SI) of Tectonophysics under the same title as our AGU session, hoping to inspire future investigations. Eighteen articles (marked with "this issue") are included in this SI and grouped into the following six categories.

  1. Earthquake prediction by Kina Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kianoosh, H.; Keypour, H.; Naderzadeh, A.; Motlagh, H.F.

    2005-01-01

    Earthquake prediction has been one of the earliest desires of the man. Scientists have worked hard to predict earthquakes for a long time. The results of these efforts can generally be divided into two methods of prediction: 1) Statistical Method, and 2) Empirical Method. In the first method, earthquakes are predicted using statistics and probabilities, while the second method utilizes variety of precursors for earthquake prediction. The latter method is time consuming and more costly. However, the result of neither method has fully satisfied the man up to now. In this paper a new method entitled 'Kiana Method' is introduced for earthquake prediction. This method offers more accurate results yet lower cost comparing to other conventional methods. In Kiana method the electrical and magnetic precursors are measured in an area. Then, the time and the magnitude of an earthquake in the future is calculated using electrical, and in particular, electrical capacitors formulas. In this method, by daily measurement of electrical resistance in an area we make clear that the area is capable of earthquake occurrence in the future or not. If the result shows a positive sign, then the occurrence time and the magnitude can be estimated by the measured quantities. This paper explains the procedure and details of this prediction method. (authors)

  2. Precisely locating the Klamath Falls, Oregon, earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qamar, A.; Meagher, K.L.

    1993-01-01

    The Klamath Falls earthquakes on September 20, 1993, were the largest earthquakes centered in Oregon in more than 50 yrs. Only the magnitude 5.75 Milton-Freewater earthquake in 1936, which was centered near the Oregon-Washington border and felt in an area of about 190,000 sq km, compares in size with the recent Klamath Falls earthquakes. Although the 1993 earthquakes surprised many local residents, geologists have long recognized that strong earthquakes may occur along potentially active faults that pass through the Klamath Falls area. These faults are geologically related to similar faults in Oregon, Idaho, and Nevada that occasionally spawn strong earthquakes

  3. Ionospheric phenomena before strong earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Silina

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available A statistical analysis of several ionospheric parameters before earthquakes with magnitude M > 5.5 located less than 500 km from an ionospheric vertical sounding station is performed. Ionospheric effects preceding "deep" (depth h > 33 km and "crust" (h 33 km earthquakes were analysed separately. Data of nighttime measurements of the critical frequencies foF2 and foEs, the frequency fbEs and Es-spread at the middle latitude station Dushanbe were used. The frequencies foF2 and fbEs are proportional to the square root of the ionization density at heights of 300 km and 100 km, respectively. It is shown that two days before the earthquakes the values of foF2 averaged over the morning hours (00:00 LT–06:00 LT and of fbEs averaged over the nighttime hours (18:00 LT–06:00 LT decrease; the effect is stronger for the "deep" earthquakes. Analysing the coefficient of semitransparency which characterizes the degree of small-scale turbulence, it was shown that this value increases 1–4 days before "crust" earthquakes, and it does not change before "deep" earthquakes. Studying Es-spread which manifests itself as diffuse Es track on ionograms and characterizes the degree of large-scale turbulence, it was found that the number of Es-spread observations increases 1–3 days before the earthquakes; for "deep" earthquakes the effect is more intensive. Thus it may be concluded that different mechanisms of energy transfer from the region of earthquake preparation to the ionosphere occur for "deep" and "crust" events.

  4. Fault Structural Control on Earthquake Strong Ground Motions: The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake as an Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Dongli; Li, Xiaojun; Huang, Bei; Zheng, Wenjun; Wang, Yuejun

    2018-02-01

    Continental thrust faulting earthquakes pose severe threats to megacities across the world. Recent events show the possible control of fault structures on strong ground motions. The seismogenic structure of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is associated with high-angle listric reverse fault zones. Its peak ground accelerations (PGAs) show a prominent feature of fault zone amplification: the values within the 30- to 40-km-wide fault zone block are significantly larger than those on both the hanging wall and the footwall. The PGA values attenuate asymmetrically: they decay much more rapidly in the footwall than in the hanging wall. The hanging wall effects can be seen on both the vertical and horizontal components of the PGAs, with the former significantly more prominent than the latter. All these characteristics can be adequately interpreted by upward extrusion of the high-angle listric reverse fault zone block. Through comparison with a low-angle planar thrust fault associated with the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, we conclude that different fault structures might have controlled different patterns of strong ground motion, which should be taken into account in seismic design and construction.

  5. Does Modern Ideology of Earthquake Engineering Ensure the Declared Levels of Damage of Structures at Earthquakes?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabrichidze, G.

    2011-01-01

    The basic position of the modern ideology of earthquake engineering is based on the idea that a structure should be designed so that it suffers almost no damage at an earthquake, the occurrence of which is most probable in the given area during the lifetime of the structure. This statement is essentially based on the so-called Performance Based Design, the ideology of the 21 s t century. In the article at tenton is focused on the fact that the modern ideology of earthquake engineering assigns structures to a dangerous zone in which their behavior is defined by processes of damage and destruction of materials, which is a nonequilibrium process and demands application of special refined methods of research. In such conditions use of ratios that correspond to static conditions of loading to describe the process of damage of materials appears to be unfounded. The article raises the question of the necessity of working out a new mathematical model of behavior of materials and structures at rapid intensive impact. (authors)

  6. Dual megathrust slip behaviors of the 2014 Iquique earthquake sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Lingsen; Huang, Hui; Bürgmann, Roland; Ampuero, Jean Paul; Strader, Anne

    2015-02-01

    The transition between seismic rupture and aseismic creep is of central interest to better understand the mechanics of subduction processes. A Mw 8.2 earthquake occurred on April 1st, 2014 in the Iquique seismic gap of northern Chile. This event was preceded by a long foreshock sequence including a 2-week-long migration of seismicity initiated by a Mw 6.7 earthquake. Repeating earthquakes were found among the foreshock sequence that migrated towards the mainshock hypocenter, suggesting a large-scale slow-slip event on the megathrust preceding the mainshock. The variations of the recurrence times of the repeating earthquakes highlight the diverse seismic and aseismic slip behaviors on different megathrust segments. The repeaters that were active only before the mainshock recurred more often and were distributed in areas of substantial coseismic slip, while repeaters that occurred both before and after the mainshock were in the area complementary to the mainshock rupture. The spatiotemporal distribution of the repeating earthquakes illustrates the essential role of propagating aseismic slip leading up to the mainshock and illuminates the distribution of postseismic afterslip. Various finite fault models indicate that the largest coseismic slip generally occurred down-dip from the foreshock activity and the mainshock hypocenter. Source imaging by teleseismic back-projection indicates an initial down-dip propagation stage followed by a rupture-expansion stage. In the first stage, the finite fault models show an emergent onset of moment rate at low frequency ( 0.5 Hz). This indicates frequency-dependent manifestations of seismic radiation in the low-stress foreshock region. In the second stage, the rupture expands in rich bursts along the rim of a semi-elliptical region with episodes of re-ruptures, suggesting delayed failure of asperities. The high-frequency rupture remains within an area of local high trench-parallel gravity anomaly (TPGA), suggesting the presence of

  7. The Pocatello Valley, Idaho, earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, A. M.; Langer, C.J.; Bucknam, R.C.

    1975-01-01

    A Richter magnitude 6.3 earthquake occurred at 8:31 p.m mountain daylight time on March 27, 1975, near the Utah-Idaho border in Pocatello Valley. The epicenter of the main shock was located at 42.094° N, 112.478° W, and had a focal depth of 5.5 km. This earthquake was the largest in the continental United States since the destructive San Fernando earthquake of February 1971. The main shock was preceded by a magnitude 4.5 foreshock on March 26. 

  8. The threat of silent earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervelli, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Not all earthquakes shake the ground. The so-called silent types are forcing scientists to rethink their understanding of the way quake-prone faults behave. In rare instances, silent earthquakes that occur along the flakes of seaside volcanoes may cascade into monstrous landslides that crash into the sea and trigger towering tsunamis. Silent earthquakes that take place within fault zones created by one tectonic plate diving under another may increase the chance of ground-shaking shocks. In other locations, however, silent slip may decrease the likelihood of destructive quakes, because they release stress along faults that might otherwise seem ready to snap.

  9. USGS Earthquake Program GPS Use Case : Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-12

    USGS GPS receiver use case. Item 1 - High Precision User (federal agency with Stafford Act hazard alert responsibilities for earthquakes, volcanoes and landslides nationwide). Item 2 - Description of Associated GPS Application(s): The USGS Eart...

  10. EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED DEFORMATION STRUCTURES AND RELATED TO EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savaş TOPAL

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Earthquake-induced deformation structures which are called seismites may helpful to clasify the paleoseismic history of a location and to estimate the magnitudes of the potention earthquakes in the future. In this paper, seismites were investigated according to the types formed in deep and shallow lake sediments. Seismites are observed forms of sand dikes, introduced and fractured gravels and pillow structures in shallow lakes and pseudonodules, mushroom-like silts protruding laminites, mixed layers, disturbed varved lamination and loop bedding in deep lake sediments. Earthquake-induced deformation structures, by benefiting from previous studies, were ordered according to their formations and earthquake magnitudes. In this order, the lowest eartquake's record is loop bedding and the highest one is introduced and fractured gravels in lacustrine deposits.

  11. USGS Tweet Earthquake Dispatch (@USGSted): Using Twitter for Earthquake Detection and Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, S. B.; Bouchard, B.; Bowden, D. C.; Guy, M.; Earle, P.

    2012-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how online social networking services like Twitter—a microblogging service for sending and reading public text-based messages of up to 140 characters—can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. The USGS Tweet Earthquake Dispatch (TED) system is using Twitter not only to broadcast seismically-verified earthquake alerts via the @USGSted and @USGSbigquakes Twitter accounts, but also to rapidly detect widely felt seismic events through a real-time detection system. The detector algorithm scans for significant increases in tweets containing the word "earthquake" or its equivalent in other languages and sends internal alerts with the detection time, tweet text, and the location of the city where most of the tweets originated. It has been running in real-time for 7 months and finds, on average, two or three felt events per day with a false detection rate of less than 10%. The detections have reasonable coverage of populated areas globally. The number of detections is small compared to the number of earthquakes detected seismically, and only a rough location and qualitative assessment of shaking can be determined based on Tweet data alone. However, the Twitter detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The main benefit of the tweet-based detections is speed, with most detections occurring between 19 seconds and 2 minutes from the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. Going beyond the initial detection, the USGS is developing data mining techniques to continuously archive and analyze relevant tweets for additional details about the detected events. The information generated about an event is displayed on a web-based map designed using HTML5 for the mobile environment, which can be valuable when the user is not able to access a

  12. Migration and AIDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-01-01

    This article presents the perspectives of UNAIDS and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) on migration and HIV/AIDS. It identifies research and action priorities and policy issues, and describes the current situation in major regions of the world. Migration is a process. Movement is enhanced by air transport, rising international trade, deregulation of trade practices, and opening of borders. Movements are restricted by laws and statutes. Denial to freely circulate and obtain asylum is associated with vulnerability to HIV infections. A UNAIDS policy paper in 1997 and IOM policy guidelines in 1988 affirm that refugees and asylum seekers should not be targeted for special measures due to HIV/AIDS. There is an urgent need to provide primary health services for migrants, voluntary counseling and testing, and more favorable conditions. Research is needed on the role of migration in the spread of HIV, the extent of migration, availability of health services, and options for HIV prevention. Research must be action-oriented and focused on vulnerability to HIV and risk taking behavior. There is substantial mobility in West and Central Africa, economic migration in South Africa, and nonvoluntary migration in Angola. Sex workers in southeast Asia contribute to the spread. The breakup of the USSR led to population shifts. Migrants in Central America and Mexico move north to the US where HIV prevalence is higher.

  13. A possible mechanism for earthquakes found in the mantle wedge of the Nazca subduction zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, L. M.; Chang, Y.; Prieto, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Beneath Colombia, the Cauca cluster of intermediate-depth earthquakes extends for 200 km along the trench (3.5°N-5.5°N, 77.0°W-75.3°W) and, with 58 earthquakes per year with local magnitude ML >= 2.5, has a higher rate of seismicity than the subduction zone immediately to the north or south. By precisely locating 433 cluster earthquakes from 1/2010-3/2014 with data from the Colombian National Seismic Network, we found that the earthquakes are located both in a continuous Nazca plate subducting at an angle of 33°-43° and in the overlying mantle wedge. The mantle wedge earthquakes (12% of the earthquakes) form two isolated 40-km-tall columns extending perpendicular to the subducting slab. Using waveform inversion, we computed focal mechanisms for 69 of the larger earthquakes. The focal mechanisms are variable, but the intraslab earthquakes are generally consistent with an in-slab extensional stress axis oriented 25° counterclockwise from the down-dip direction. We suggest that the observed mantle wedge earthquakes are the result of hydrofracture in a relatively cool mantle wedge. This segment of the Nazca Plate is currently subducting at a normal angle, but Wagner et al. (2017) suggested that a flat slab slowly developed in the region between 9-5.9 Ma and persisted until 4 Ma. During flat slab subduction, the overlying mantle wedge typically cools because it is cut off from mantle corner flow. After hydrous minerals in the slab dehydrate, the dehydrated fluid is expelled from the slab and migrates through the mantle wedge. If a cool mantle wedge remains today, fluid dehydrated from the slab may generate earthquakes by hydrofracture, with the mantle wedge earthquakes representing fluid migration pathways. Dahm's (2000) model of water-filled fracture propagation in the mantle wedge shows hydrofractures propagating normal to the subducting slab and extending tens of km into the mantle wedge, as we observe.

  14. USGS GNSS Applications to Earthquake Disaster Response and Hazard Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudnut, K. W.; Murray, J. R.; Minson, S. E.

    2015-12-01

    Rapid characterization of earthquake rupture is important during a disaster because it establishes which fault ruptured and the extent and amount of fault slip. These key parameters, in turn, can augment in situ seismic sensors for identifying disruption to lifelines as well as localized damage along the fault break. Differential GNSS station positioning, along with imagery differencing, are important methods for augmenting seismic sensors. During response to recent earthquakes (1989 Loma Prieta, 1992 Landers, 1994 Northridge, 1999 Hector Mine, 2010 El Mayor - Cucapah, 2012 Brawley Swarm and 2014 South Napa earthquakes), GNSS co-seismic and post-seismic observations proved to be essential for rapid earthquake source characterization. Often, we find that GNSS results indicate key aspects of the earthquake source that would not have been known in the absence of GNSS data. Seismic, geologic, and imagery data alone, without GNSS, would miss important details of the earthquake source. That is, GNSS results provide important additional insight into the earthquake source properties, which in turn help understand the relationship between shaking and damage patterns. GNSS also adds to understanding of the distribution of slip along strike and with depth on a fault, which can help determine possible lifeline damage due to fault offset, as well as the vertical deformation and tilt that are vitally important for gravitationally driven water systems. The GNSS processing work flow that took more than one week 25 years ago now takes less than one second. Formerly, portable receivers needed to be set up at a site, operated for many hours, then data retrieved, processed and modeled by a series of manual steps. The establishment of continuously telemetered, continuously operating high-rate GNSS stations and the robust automation of all aspects of data retrieval and processing, has led to sub-second overall system latency. Within the past few years, the final challenges of

  15. Modeling of earthquake ground motion in the frequency domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thrainsson, Hjortur

    In recent years, the utilization of time histories of earthquake ground motion has grown considerably in the design and analysis of civil structures. It is very unlikely, however, that recordings of earthquake ground motion will be available for all sites and conditions of interest. Hence, there is a need for efficient methods for the simulation and spatial interpolation of earthquake ground motion. In addition to providing estimates of the ground motion at a site using data from adjacent recording stations, spatially interpolated ground motions can also be used in design and analysis of long-span structures, such as bridges and pipelines, where differential movement is important. The objective of this research is to develop a methodology for rapid generation of horizontal earthquake ground motion at any site for a given region, based on readily available source, path and site characteristics, or (sparse) recordings. The research includes two main topics: (i) the simulation of earthquake ground motion at a given site, and (ii) the spatial interpolation of earthquake ground motion. In topic (i), models are developed to simulate acceleration time histories using the inverse discrete Fourier transform. The Fourier phase differences, defined as the difference in phase angle between adjacent frequency components, are simulated conditional on the Fourier amplitude. Uniformly processed recordings from recent California earthquakes are used to validate the simulation models, as well as to develop prediction formulas for the model parameters. The models developed in this research provide rapid simulation of earthquake ground motion over a wide range of magnitudes and distances, but they are not intended to replace more robust geophysical models. In topic (ii), a model is developed in which Fourier amplitudes and Fourier phase angles are interpolated separately. A simple dispersion relationship is included in the phase angle interpolation. The accuracy of the interpolation

  16. MIGRATIONS OF RELEASED SEISMIC ENERGY IN VARIOUS GEODYNAMIC CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Novopashina

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The properties of slow seismic activity migration have been revealed by the space-time analysis of the total earthquake energy (LgEsum. Our study of seismic activity covers the fragments of  the Central Asian, Pacific and Alpine seismic belts: the Baikal rift system (BRS, Russia, the San Andreas fault zone (California, USA, the Christchurch fault (New Zealand, the North and East Anatolian faults (Turkey, the Philippine subduction zone, and the central fragment of the Mid-Atlantic oceanic ridge. The chains of LgEsum clusters mark the propagation of the maximum stresses front in the weaker crust areas, the zones of fault dynamic influence, and the regions of conjugated tectonic structures. The migration process is characterized by a periodicity, changes in direction, and similar modular values of the migration rates within a single fault segment (or a fault zone, which is probably related to the mechanical and rheological crust and upper mantle properties. The data analysis shows that a strong earthquake source may occur at a location wherein the front of seismic activity propagates with periodical changes in direction, and such a source can develop within a period that is multiple of the migration fluctuations, probably associated with the influence of external periodic factors. The main periods of migration fluctuations (2–4 years, and 9–13 years, in different ratios are present in the seismic regimes of different seismic belts. The migration rate, as well as the propagation velocity of the maximum stresses front, directly depends on the velocity of movements between the plates in the region.

  17. Extreme value statistics and thermodynamics of earthquakes. Large earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavenda, B. [Camerino Univ., Camerino, MC (Italy); Cipollone, E. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, S. Maria di Galeria, RM (Italy). National Centre for Research on Thermodynamics

    2000-06-01

    A compound Poisson process is used to derive a new shape parameter which can be used to discriminate between large earthquakes and aftershocks sequences. Sample exceedance distributions of large earthquakes are fitted to the Pareto tail and the actual distribution of the maximum to the Frechet distribution, while the sample distribution of aftershocks are fitted to a Beta distribution and the distribution of the minimum to the Weibull distribution for the smallest value. The transition between initial sample distributions and asymptotic extreme value distributions show that self-similar power laws are transformed into non scaling exponential distributions so that neither self-similarity nor the Gutenberg-Richter law can be considered universal. The energy-magnitude transformation converts the Frechet distribution into the Gumbel distribution, originally proposed by Epstein and Lomnitz, and not the Gompertz distribution as in the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz generalization of the Gutenberg-Richter law. Numerical comparison is made with the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz analysis using the same catalogue of Chinese earthquakes. An analogy is drawn between large earthquakes and high energy particle physics. A generalized equation of state is used to transform the Gamma density into the order-statistic Frechet distribution. Earthquake temperature and volume are determined as functions of the energy. Large insurance claims based on the Pareto distribution, which does not have a right endpoint, show why there cannot be a maximum earthquake energy.

  18. Labor migration in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, P L

    1991-01-01

    "A recent conference sponsored by the United Nations Center for Regional Development (UNCRD) in Nagoya, Japan examined the growing importance of labor migration for four major Asian labor importers (Japan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore) and five major labor exporters (Bangladesh, Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, and Thailand).... The conference concluded that international labor migration would increase within Asia because the tight labor markets and rising wages which have stimulated Japanese investment in other Asian nations, for example, have not been sufficient to eliminate migration push and pull forces...." excerpt

  19. Centrality in earthquake multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotfi, Nastaran; Darooneh, Amir Hossein; Rodrigues, Francisco A.

    2018-06-01

    Seismic time series has been mapped as a complex network, where a geographical region is divided into square cells that represent the nodes and connections are defined according to the sequence of earthquakes. In this paper, we map a seismic time series to a temporal network, described by a multiplex network, and characterize the evolution of the network structure in terms of the eigenvector centrality measure. We generalize previous works that considered the single layer representation of earthquake networks. Our results suggest that the multiplex representation captures better earthquake activity than methods based on single layer networks. We also verify that the regions with highest seismological activities in Iran and California can be identified from the network centrality analysis. The temporal modeling of seismic data provided here may open new possibilities for a better comprehension of the physics of earthquakes.

  20. Neuronal Migration Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Understanding Sleep The Life and Death of a Neuron Genes At Work In The Brain Order Publications ... birth defects caused by the abnormal migration of neurons in the developing brain and nervous system. In ...

  1. Migration og etnicitet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Connie Carøe

    2004-01-01

    Migration og etnicitet er aktuelle og forbundne fænomener, idet migration øger berøringsfladerne mellem befolkningsgrupper. Etniciteter formes i takt med at grænser drages imellem disse grupper. Imod moderniserings-teoriernes forventning forsvandt etnicitet ikke som en traditionel eller oprindelig...... måde at skabe tilhørsforhold på; globalt set fremstår vor tid istedet som en "migrationens tidsalder", der tilsyneladende også er en tidsalder, hvor kulturelle særtræk, i form af etnicitet, udgør vigtige linjer, hvorefter grupper skilller sig ud fra hinanden. Både migration og etnicitet bringer fokus...... den finder sted i modtagerlandet, men nyere perspektiver på migration, som begreber om medborgerskab, transnationalisme og diaspora er eksponenter for, søger udover den nationalstatslige ramme og inddrager konsekvenserne af migrationen for afsenderlande....

  2. Earthquake Triggering in the September 2017 Mexican Earthquake Sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fielding, E. J.; Gombert, B.; Duputel, Z.; Huang, M. H.; Liang, C.; Bekaert, D. P.; Moore, A. W.; Liu, Z.; Ampuero, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Southern Mexico was struck by four earthquakes with Mw > 6 and numerous smaller earthquakes in September 2017, starting with the 8 September Mw 8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake beneath the Gulf of Tehuantepec offshore Chiapas and Oaxaca. We study whether this M8.2 earthquake triggered the three subsequent large M>6 quakes in southern Mexico to improve understanding of earthquake interactions and time-dependent risk. All four large earthquakes were extensional despite the the subduction of the Cocos plate. The traditional definition of aftershocks: likely an aftershock if it occurs within two rupture lengths of the main shock soon afterwards. Two Mw 6.1 earthquakes, one half an hour after the M8.2 beneath the Tehuantepec gulf and one on 23 September near Ixtepec in Oaxaca, both fit as traditional aftershocks, within 200 km of the main rupture. The 19 September Mw 7.1 Puebla earthquake was 600 km away from the M8.2 shock, outside the standard aftershock zone. Geodetic measurements from interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and time-series analysis of GPS station data constrain finite fault total slip models for the M8.2, M7.1, and M6.1 Ixtepec earthquakes. The early M6.1 aftershock was too close in time and space to the M8.2 to measure with InSAR or GPS. We analyzed InSAR data from Copernicus Sentinel-1A and -1B satellites and JAXA ALOS-2 satellite. Our preliminary geodetic slip model for the M8.2 quake shows significant slip extended > 150 km NW from the hypocenter, longer than slip in the v1 finite-fault model (FFM) from teleseismic waveforms posted by G. Hayes at USGS NEIC. Our slip model for the M7.1 earthquake is similar to the v2 NEIC FFM. Interferograms for the M6.1 Ixtepec quake confirm the shallow depth in the upper-plate crust and show centroid is about 30 km SW of the NEIC epicenter, a significant NEIC location bias, but consistent with cluster relocations (E. Bergman, pers. comm.) and with Mexican SSN location. Coulomb static stress

  3. Electrical streaming potential precursors to catastrophic earthquakes in China

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, Y.; Zhao, B.; Qian, F.

    1997-01-01

    The majority of anomalies in self-potential at 7 stations within 160 km from the epicentre showed a similar pattern of rapid onset and slow decay during and before the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake of 1976. Considering that some of these anomalies associated with episodical spouting from boreholes or the increase in pore pressure in wells, observed anomalies are streaming potential generated by local events of sudden movements and diffusion process of high-pressure fluid in parallel faults. These...

  4. Diverse rupture modes for surface-deforming upper plate earthquakes in the southern Puget Lowland of Washington State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Alan R.; Personius, Stephen F.; Sherrod, Brian L.; Kelsey, Harvey M.; Johnson, Samuel Y.; Bradley, Lee-Ann; Wells, Ray E.

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake prehistory of the southern Puget Lowland, in the north-south compressive regime of the migrating Cascadia forearc, reflects diverse earthquake rupture modes with variable recurrence. Stratigraphy and Bayesian analyses of previously reported and new 14C ages in trenches and cores along backthrust scarps in the Seattle fault zone restrict a large earthquake to 1040–910 cal yr B.P. (2σ), an interval that includes the time of the M 7–7.5 Restoration Point earthquake. A newly identified surface-rupturing earthquake along the Waterman Point backthrust dates to 940–380 cal yr B.P., bringing the number of earthquakes in the Seattle fault zone in the past 3500 yr to 4 or 5. Whether scarps record earthquakes of moderate (M 5.5–6.0) or large (M 6.5–7.0) magnitude, backthrusts of the Seattle fault zone may slip during moderate to large earthquakes every few hundred years for periods of 1000–2000 yr, and then not slip for periods of at least several thousands of years. Four new fault scarp trenches in the Tacoma fault zone show evidence of late Holocene folding and faulting about the time of a large earthquake or earthquakes inferred from widespread coseismic subsidence ca. 1000 cal yr B.P.; 12 ages from 8 sites in the Tacoma fault zone limit the earthquakes to 1050–980 cal yr B.P. Evidence is too sparse to determine whether a large earthquake was closely predated or postdated by other earthquakes in the Tacoma basin, but the scarp of the Tacoma fault was formed by multiple earthquakes. In the northeast-striking Saddle Mountain deformation zone, along the western limit of the Seattle and Tacoma fault zones, analysis of previous ages limits earthquakes to 1200–310 cal yr B.P. The prehistory clarifies earthquake clustering in the central Puget Lowland, but cannot resolve potential structural links among the three Holocene fault zones.

  5. The GIS and analysis of earthquake damage distribution of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Meng-Tan; Jin, Xue-Shen; An, Wei-Ping; Lü, Xiao-Jian

    2004-07-01

    The geography information system of the 1303 Hongton M=8 earthquake has been established. Using the spatial analysis function of GIS, the spatial distribution characteristics of damage and isoseismal of the earthquake are studies. By comparing with the standard earthquake intensity attenuation relationship, the abnormal damage distribution of the earthquake is found, so the relationship of the abnormal distribution with tectonics, site condition and basin are analyzed. In this paper, the influence on the ground motion generated by earthquake source and the underground structures near source also are studied. The influence on seismic zonation, anti-earthquake design, earthquake prediction and earthquake emergency responding produced by the abnormal density distribution are discussed.

  6. Mapping Tectonic Stress Using Earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, Richard; Townend, John; Vignaux, Tony

    2005-01-01

    An earthquakes occurs when the forces acting on a fault overcome its intrinsic strength and cause it to slip abruptly. Understanding more specifically why earthquakes occur at particular locations and times is complicated because in many cases we do not know what these forces actually are, or indeed what processes ultimately trigger slip. The goal of this study is to develop, test, and implement a Bayesian method of reliably determining tectonic stresses using the most abundant stress gauges available - earthquakes themselves.Existing algorithms produce reasonable estimates of the principal stress directions, but yield unreliable error bounds as a consequence of the generally weak constraint on stress imposed by any single earthquake, observational errors, and an unavoidable ambiguity between the fault normal and the slip vector.A statistical treatment of the problem can take into account observational errors, combine data from multiple earthquakes in a consistent manner, and provide realistic error bounds on the estimated principal stress directions.We have developed a realistic physical framework for modelling multiple earthquakes and show how the strong physical and geometrical constraints present in this problem allow inference to be made about the orientation of the principal axes of stress in the earth's crust

  7. Swedish earthquakes and acceleration probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slunga, R.

    1979-03-01

    A method to assign probabilities to ground accelerations for Swedish sites is described. As hardly any nearfield instrumental data is available we are left with the problem of interpreting macroseismic data in terms of acceleration. By theoretical wave propagation computations the relation between seismic strength of the earthquake, focal depth, distance and ground accelerations are calculated. We found that most Swedish earthquake of the area, the 1904 earthquake 100 km south of Oslo, is an exception and probably had a focal depth exceeding 25 km. For the nuclear power plant sites an annual probability of 10 -5 has been proposed as interesting. This probability gives ground accelerations in the range 5-20 % for the sites. This acceleration is for a free bedrock site. For consistency all acceleration results in this study are given for bedrock sites. When applicating our model to the 1904 earthquake and assuming the focal zone to be in the lower crust we get the epicentral acceleration of this earthquake to be 5-15 % g. The results above are based on an analyses of macrosismic data as relevant instrumental data is lacking. However, the macroseismic acceleration model deduced in this study gives epicentral ground acceleration of small Swedish earthquakes in agreement with existent distant instrumental data. (author)

  8. Building with Earthquakes in Mind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangieri, Nicholas

    2016-04-01

    Earthquakes are some of the most elusive and destructive disasters humans interact with on this planet. Engineering structures to withstand earthquake shaking is critical to ensure minimal loss of life and property. However, the majority of buildings today in non-traditional earthquake prone areas are not built to withstand this devastating force. Understanding basic earthquake engineering principles and the effect of limited resources helps students grasp the challenge that lies ahead. The solution can be found in retrofitting existing buildings with proper reinforcements and designs to deal with this deadly disaster. The students were challenged in this project to construct a basic structure, using limited resources, that could withstand a simulated tremor through the use of an earthquake shake table. Groups of students had to work together to creatively manage their resources and ideas to design the most feasible and realistic type of building. This activity provided a wealth of opportunities for the students to learn more about a type of disaster they do not experience in this part of the country. Due to the fact that most buildings in New York City were not designed to withstand earthquake shaking, the students were able to gain an appreciation for how difficult it would be to prepare every structure in the city for this type of event.

  9. Large earthquakes and creeping faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Ruth A.

    2017-01-01

    Faults are ubiquitous throughout the Earth's crust. The majority are silent for decades to centuries, until they suddenly rupture and produce earthquakes. With a focus on shallow continental active-tectonic regions, this paper reviews a subset of faults that have a different behavior. These unusual faults slowly creep for long periods of time and produce many small earthquakes. The presence of fault creep and the related microseismicity helps illuminate faults that might not otherwise be located in fine detail, but there is also the question of how creeping faults contribute to seismic hazard. It appears that well-recorded creeping fault earthquakes of up to magnitude 6.6 that have occurred in shallow continental regions produce similar fault-surface rupture areas and similar peak ground shaking as their locked fault counterparts of the same earthquake magnitude. The behavior of much larger earthquakes on shallow creeping continental faults is less well known, because there is a dearth of comprehensive observations. Computational simulations provide an opportunity to fill the gaps in our understanding, particularly of the dynamic processes that occur during large earthquake rupture and arrest.

  10. Earthquake damage to underground facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pratt, H.R.; Hustrulid, W.A.; Stephenson, D.E.

    1978-11-01

    The potential seismic risk for an underground nuclear waste repository will be one of the considerations in evaluating its ultimate location. However, the risk to subsurface facilities cannot be judged by applying intensity ratings derived from the surface effects of an earthquake. A literature review and analysis were performed to document the damage and non-damage due to earthquakes to underground facilities. Damage from earthquakes to tunnels, s, and wells and damage (rock bursts) from mining operations were investigated. Damage from documented nuclear events was also included in the study where applicable. There are very few data on damage in the subsurface due to earthquakes. This fact itself attests to the lessened effect of earthquakes in the subsurface because mines exist in areas where strong earthquakes have done extensive surface damage. More damage is reported in shallow tunnels near the surface than in deep mines. In mines and tunnels, large displacements occur primarily along pre-existing faults and fractures or at the surface entrance to these facilities.Data indicate vertical structures such as wells and shafts are less susceptible to damage than surface facilities. More analysis is required before seismic criteria can be formulated for the siting of a nuclear waste repository

  11. Global earthquake fatalities and population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzer, Thomas L.; Savage, James C.

    2013-01-01

    Modern global earthquake fatalities can be separated into two components: (1) fatalities from an approximately constant annual background rate that is independent of world population growth and (2) fatalities caused by earthquakes with large human death tolls, the frequency of which is dependent on world population. Earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (and 50,000) have increased with world population and obey a nonstationary Poisson distribution with rate proportional to population. We predict that the number of earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (50,000) will increase in the 21st century to 8.7±3.3 (20.5±4.3) from 4 (7) observed in the 20th century if world population reaches 10.1 billion in 2100. Combining fatalities caused by the background rate with fatalities caused by catastrophic earthquakes (>100,000 fatalities) indicates global fatalities in the 21st century will be 2.57±0.64 million if the average post-1900 death toll for catastrophic earthquakes (193,000) is assumed.

  12. Repeat migration and disappointment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, E K; Vanderkamp, J

    1986-01-01

    This article investigates the determinants of repeat migration among the 44 regions of Canada, using information from a large micro-database which spans the period 1968 to 1971. The explanation of repeat migration probabilities is a difficult task, and this attempt is only partly successful. May of the explanatory variables are not significant, and the overall explanatory power of the equations is not high. In the area of personal characteristics, the variables related to age, sex, and marital status are generally significant and with expected signs. The distance variable has a strongly positive effect on onward move probabilities. Variables related to prior migration experience have an important impact that differs between return and onward probabilities. In particular, the occurrence of prior moves has a striking effect on the probability of onward migration. The variable representing disappointment, or relative success of the initial move, plays a significant role in explaining repeat migration probabilities. The disappointment variable represents the ratio of actural versus expected wage income in the year after the initial move, and its effect on both repeat migration probabilities is always negative and almost always highly significant. The repeat probabilities diminish after a year's stay in the destination region, but disappointment in the most recent year still has a bearing on the delayed repeat probabilities. While the quantitative impact of the disappointment variable is not large, it is difficult to draw comparisons since similar estimates are not available elsewhere.

  13. Subduction zone earthquake probably triggered submarine hydrocarbon seepage offshore Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, David; José M., Mogollón; Michael, Strasser; Thomas, Pape; Gerhard, Bohrmann; Noemi, Fekete; Volkhard, Spiess; Sabine, Kasten

    2014-05-01

    creating pathways for free gas to migrate from a shallow reservoir within the gas hydrate stability zone into the water column. Our results imply that free hydrocarbon gas trapped beneath a local gas hydrate seal was mobilized through earthquake-induced mechanical failure and in that way circumvented carbon sequestration within the sediment. These findings lead to conclude that hydrocarbon seepage triggered by earthquakes can play a role for carbon budgets at other seismically active continental margins. The newly identified process presented in our study is conceivable to help interpret data from similar sites. Reference: Fischer, D., Mogollon, J.M., Strasser, M., Pape, T., Bohrmann, G., Fekete, N., Spieß, V. and Kasten, S., 2013. Subduction zone earthquake as potential trigger of submarine hydrocarbon seepage. Nature Geoscience 6: 647-651.

  14. Tweeting Earthquakes using TensorFlow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casarotti, E.; Comunello, F.; Magnoni, F.

    2016-12-01

    The use of social media is emerging as a powerful tool for disseminating trusted information about earthquakes. Since 2009, the Twitter account @INGVterremoti provides constant and timely details about M2+ seismic events detected by the Italian National Seismic Network, directly connected with the seismologists on duty at Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). Currently, it updates more than 150,000 followers. Nevertheless, since it provides only the manual revision of seismic parameters, the timing (approximately between 10 and 20 minutes after an event) has started to be under evaluation. Undeniably, mobile internet, social network sites and Twitter in particular require a more rapid and "real-time" reaction. During the last 36 months, INGV tested the tweeting of the automatic detection of M3+ earthquakes, studying the reliability of the information both in term of seismological accuracy that from the point of view of communication and social research. A set of quality parameters (i.e. number of seismic stations, gap, relative error of the location) has been recognized to reduce false alarms and the uncertainty of the automatic detection. We present an experiment to further improve the reliability of this process using TensorFlow™ (an open source software library originally developed by researchers and engineers working on the Google Brain Team within Google's Machine Intelligence research organization).

  15. Vrancea earthquakes. Specific actions to mitigate seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marmureanu, Alexandru

    2005-01-01

    Earthquakes have been known in Romania since Roman times, when Trajan's legionnaires began the colonization of the rich plains stretching from the Carpathian Mountains to the Danube River. Since readings from seismographic stations became available, after 1940, it has been established that the most frequent largest earthquakes arise from deep Vrancea sources at the bend of the Carpathians Earthquakes in the Carpathian-Pannonian region are confined to the crust, except for the Vrancea zone, where earthquakes with focal depth down to 200 km occur. For example, the ruptured area migrated in depth from 150 km to 180 km (November 10, 1940, M w =7.7), from 90 to 110 km (March 4, 1977, M w =7.4), from 130 to 150 km (August 30, 1986, M w =7.1), and from 70 to 90 km (May 30, 1990, M w =6.9). The depth interval between 110 km and 130 km has remained unruptured since 1802, October 26, when the strongest known earthquake occurred in this part of Central Europe. The magnitude is assumed to have been M w =7.9 - 8.0, and this depth interval is a natural candidate for the next strong Vrancea event. The maximum intensity for strong deep Vrancea earthquakes is quite distant from the actual epicenter and greater than the epicentral intensity. For the 1977 strong earthquake (M w =7.4), the estimated intensity at its Vrancea region epicenter was only VII (MMI scale), while some 170 km away, in the capital city of Bucharest, the estimated maximum intensity was IX1/2 -X (MMI). The intensely deforming Vrancea zone shows a quite enigmatic seismic pattern (peak ground accelerations/intensity one, characteristic response spectra with large periods of 1.5 seconds, no significant attenuations on Romanian territory, large amplifications away, etc.). While no country in the world is entirely safe, the lack of capacity to limit the impact of seismic hazards remains a major burden for all countries and while the world has witnessed an exponential increase in human and material losses due to

  16. Cascading elastic perturbation in Japan due to the 2012 Mw 8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delorey, Andrew A.; Chao, Kevin; Obara, Kazushige; Johnson, Paul A.

    2015-01-01

    Since the discovery of extensive earthquake triggering occurring in response to the 1992 Mw (moment magnitude) 7.3 Landers earthquake, it is now well established that seismic waves from earthquakes can trigger other earthquakes, tremor, slow slip, and pore pressure changes. Our contention is that earthquake triggering is one manifestation of a more widespread elastic disturbance that reveals information about Earth’s stress state. Earth’s stress state is central to our understanding of both natural and anthropogenic-induced crustal processes. We show that seismic waves from distant earthquakes may perturb stresses and frictional properties on faults and elastic moduli of the crust in cascading fashion. Transient dynamic stresses place crustal material into a metastable state during which the material recovers through a process termed slow dynamics. This observation of widespread, dynamically induced elastic perturbation, including systematic migration of offshore seismicity, strain transients, and velocity transients, presents a new characterization of Earth’s elastic system that will advance our understanding of plate tectonics, seismicity, and seismic hazards. PMID:26601289

  17. Evidence for Ancient Mesoamerican Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovach, R. L.; Garcia, B.

    2001-12-01

    Evidence for past earthquake damage at Mesoamerican ruins is often overlooked because of the invasive effects of tropical vegetation and is usually not considered as a casual factor when restoration and reconstruction of many archaeological sites are undertaken. Yet the proximity of many ruins to zones of seismic activity would argue otherwise. Clues as to the types of damage which should be soughtwere offered in September 1999 when the M = 7.5 Oaxaca earthquake struck the ruins of Monte Alban, Mexico, where archaeological renovations were underway. More than 20 structures were damaged, 5 of them seriously. Damage features noted were walls out of plumb, fractures in walls, floors, basal platforms and tableros, toppling of columns, and deformation, settling and tumbling of walls. A Modified Mercalli Intensity of VII (ground accelerations 18-34 %b) occurred at the site. Within the diffuse landward extension of the Caribbean plate boundary zone M = 7+ earthquakes occur with repeat times of hundreds of years arguing that many Maya sites were subjected to earthquakes. Damage to re-erected and reinforced stelae, walls, and buildings were witnessed at Quirigua, Guatemala, during an expedition underway when then 1976 M = 7.5 Guatemala earthquake on the Motagua fault struck. Excavations also revealed evidence (domestic pttery vessels and skeleton of a child crushed under fallen walls) of an ancient earthquake occurring about the teim of the demise and abandonment of Quirigua in the late 9th century. Striking evidence for sudden earthquake building collapse at the end of the Mayan Classic Period ~A.D. 889 was found at Benque Viejo (Xunantunich), Belize, located 210 north of Quirigua. It is argued that a M = 7.5 to 7.9 earthquake at the end of the Maya Classic period centered in the vicinity of the Chixoy-Polochic and Motagua fault zones cound have produced the contemporaneous earthquake damage to the above sites. As a consequences this earthquake may have accelerated the

  18. Managing migration: the Brazilian case

    OpenAIRE

    Eduardo L. G. Rios-Neto

    2005-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to present the Brazilian migration experience and its relationship with migration management. The article is divided into three parts. First, it reviews some basic facts regarding Brazilian immigration and emigration processes. Second, it focuses on some policy and legal issues related to migration. Finally, it addresses five issues regarding migration management in Brazil.

  19. Comparison of two large earthquakes: the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake and the 2011 East Japan Earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otani, Yuki; Ando, Takayuki; Atobe, Kaori; Haiden, Akina; Kao, Sheng-Yuan; Saito, Kohei; Shimanuki, Marie; Yoshimoto, Norifumi; Fukunaga, Koichi

    2012-01-01

    Between August 15th and 19th, 2011, eight 5th-year medical students from the Keio University School of Medicine had the opportunity to visit the Peking University School of Medicine and hold a discussion session titled "What is the most effective way to educate people for survival in an acute disaster situation (before the mental health care stage)?" During the session, we discussed the following six points: basic information regarding the Sichuan Earthquake and the East Japan Earthquake, differences in preparedness for earthquakes, government actions, acceptance of medical rescue teams, earthquake-induced secondary effects, and media restrictions. Although comparison of the two earthquakes was not simple, we concluded that three major points should be emphasized to facilitate the most effective course of disaster planning and action. First, all relevant agencies should formulate emergency plans and should supply information regarding the emergency to the general public and health professionals on a normal basis. Second, each citizen should be educated and trained in how to minimize the risks from earthquake-induced secondary effects. Finally, the central government should establish a single headquarters responsible for command, control, and coordination during a natural disaster emergency and should centralize all powers in this single authority. We hope this discussion may be of some use in future natural disasters in China, Japan, and worldwide.

  20. The smart cluster method. Adaptive earthquake cluster identification and analysis in strong seismic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Andreas M.; Daniell, James E.; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2017-07-01

    Earthquake clustering is an essential part of almost any statistical analysis of spatial and temporal properties of seismic activity. The nature of earthquake clusters and subsequent declustering of earthquake catalogues plays a crucial role in determining the magnitude-dependent earthquake return period and its respective spatial variation for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. This study introduces the Smart Cluster Method (SCM), a new methodology to identify earthquake clusters, which uses an adaptive point process for spatio-temporal cluster identification. It utilises the magnitude-dependent spatio-temporal earthquake density to adjust the search properties, subsequently analyses the identified clusters to determine directional variation and adjusts its search space with respect to directional properties. In the case of rapid subsequent ruptures like the 1992 Landers sequence or the 2010-2011 Darfield-Christchurch sequence, a reclassification procedure is applied to disassemble subsequent ruptures using near-field searches, nearest neighbour classification and temporal splitting. The method is capable of identifying and classifying earthquake clusters in space and time. It has been tested and validated using earthquake data from California and New Zealand. A total of more than 1500 clusters have been found in both regions since 1980 with M m i n = 2.0. Utilising the knowledge of cluster classification, the method has been adjusted to provide an earthquake declustering algorithm, which has been compared to existing methods. Its performance is comparable to established methodologies. The analysis of earthquake clustering statistics lead to various new and updated correlation functions, e.g. for ratios between mainshock and strongest aftershock and general aftershock activity metrics.

  1. Do earthquakes exhibit self-organized criticality?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Xiaosong; Ma Jin; Du Shuming

    2004-01-01

    If earthquakes are phenomena of self-organized criticality (SOC), statistical characteristics of the earthquake time series should be invariant after the sequence of events in an earthquake catalog are randomly rearranged. In this Letter we argue that earthquakes are unlikely phenomena of SOC because our analysis of the Southern California Earthquake Catalog shows that the first-return-time probability P M (T) is apparently changed after the time series is rearranged. This suggests that the SOC theory should not be used to oppose the efforts of earthquake prediction

  2. Earthquake related displacement fields near underground facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pratt, H.R.; Zandt, G.; Bouchon, M.

    1979-04-01

    Relative displacements of rock masses are evaluated in terms of geological evidence, seismological evidence, data from simulation experiments, and analytical predictive models. Numerical models have been developed to determine displacement fields as a function of depth, distance, and azimuth from an earthquake source. Computer calculations for several types of faults indicate that displacements decrease rapidly with distance from the fault, but that displacements can either increase or decrease as a function of depth depending on the type and geometry of the fault. For long shallow vertical strike-slip faults the displacement decreases markedly with depth. For square strike slip faults and for dip slip faults displacement does not decrease as markedly with depth. Geologic structure, material properties, and depth affect the seismic source spectrum. Amplification of the high frequencies of shear waves is larger by a factor of about 2 for layered geologic models than for an elastic half space

  3. Earthquake, GIS and multimedia. The 1883 Casamicciola earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rebuffat

    1995-06-01

    Full Text Available A series of multimedia monographs concerning the main seismic events that have affected the Italian territory are in the process of being produced for the Documental Integrated Multimedia Project (DIMP started by the Italian National Seismic Survey (NSS. The purpose of the project is to reconstruct the historical record of earthquakes and promote an earthquake public education. Producing the monographs. developed in ARC INFO and working in UNIX. involved designing a special filing and management methodology to integrate heterogeneous information (images, papers, cartographies, etc.. This paper describes the possibilities of a GIS (Geographic Information System in the filing and management of documental information. As an example we present the first monograph on the 1883 Casamicciola earthquake. on the island of Ischia (Campania, Italy. This earthquake is particularly interesting for the following reasons: I historical-cultural context (first destructive seismic event after the unification of Italy; 2 its features (volcanic earthquake; 3 the socioeconomic consequences caused at such an important seaside resort.

  4. Extreme value statistics and thermodynamics of earthquakes: large earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. H. Lavenda

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available A compound Poisson process is used to derive a new shape parameter which can be used to discriminate between large earthquakes and aftershock sequences. Sample exceedance distributions of large earthquakes are fitted to the Pareto tail and the actual distribution of the maximum to the Fréchet distribution, while the sample distribution of aftershocks are fitted to a Beta distribution and the distribution of the minimum to the Weibull distribution for the smallest value. The transition between initial sample distributions and asymptotic extreme value distributions shows that self-similar power laws are transformed into nonscaling exponential distributions so that neither self-similarity nor the Gutenberg-Richter law can be considered universal. The energy-magnitude transformation converts the Fréchet distribution into the Gumbel distribution, originally proposed by Epstein and Lomnitz, and not the Gompertz distribution as in the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz generalization of the Gutenberg-Richter law. Numerical comparison is made with the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz analysis using the same Catalogue of Chinese Earthquakes. An analogy is drawn between large earthquakes and high energy particle physics. A generalized equation of state is used to transform the Gamma density into the order-statistic Fréchet distribution. Earthquaketemperature and volume are determined as functions of the energy. Large insurance claims based on the Pareto distribution, which does not have a right endpoint, show why there cannot be a maximum earthquake energy.

  5. Precursory earthquakes of the 1943 eruption of Paricutin volcano, Michoacan, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoyama, I.; de la Cruz-Reyna, S.

    1990-12-01

    Paricutin volcano is a monogenetic volcano whose birth and growth were observed by modern volcanological techniques. At the time of its birth in 1943, the seismic activity in central Mexico was mainly recorded by the Wiechert seismographs at the Tacubaya seismic station in Mexico City about 320 km east of the volcano area. In this paper we aim to find any characteristics of precursory earthquakes of the monogenetic eruption. Though there are limits in the available information, such as imprecise location of hypocenters and lack of earthquake data with magnitudes under 3.0. The available data show that the first precursory earthquake occurred on January 7, 1943, with a magnitude of 4.4. Subsequently, 21 earthquakes ranging from 3.2 to 4.5 in magnitude occurred before the outbreak of the eruption on February 20. The (S - P) durations of the precursory earthquakes do not show any systematic changes within the observational errors. The hypocenters were rather shallow and did not migrate. The precursory earthquakes had a characteristic tectonic signature, which was retained through the whole period of activity. However, the spectra of the P-waves of the Paricutin earthquakes show minor differences from those of tectonic earthquakes. This fact helped in the identification of Paricutin earthquakes. Except for the first shock, the maximum earthquake magnitudes show an increasing tendency with time towards the outbreak. The total seismic energy released by the precursory earthquakes amounted to 2 × 10 19 ergs. Considering that statistically there is a threshold of cumulative seismic energy release (10 17-18ergs) by precursory earthquakes in polygenetic volcanoes erupting after long quiescence, the above cumulative energy is exceptionally large. This suggests that a monogenetic volcano may need much more energy to clear the way of magma passage to the earth surface than a polygenetic one. The magma ascent before the outbreak of Paricutin volcano is interpretable by a model

  6. Laboratory generated M -6 earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaskey, Gregory C.; Kilgore, Brian D.; Lockner, David A.; Beeler, Nicholas M.

    2014-01-01

    We consider whether mm-scale earthquake-like seismic events generated in laboratory experiments are consistent with our understanding of the physics of larger earthquakes. This work focuses on a population of 48 very small shocks that are foreshocks and aftershocks of stick–slip events occurring on a 2.0 m by 0.4 m simulated strike-slip fault cut through a large granite sample. Unlike the larger stick–slip events that rupture the entirety of the simulated fault, the small foreshocks and aftershocks are contained events whose properties are controlled by the rigidity of the surrounding granite blocks rather than characteristics of the experimental apparatus. The large size of the experimental apparatus, high fidelity sensors, rigorous treatment of wave propagation effects, and in situ system calibration separates this study from traditional acoustic emission analyses and allows these sources to be studied with as much rigor as larger natural earthquakes. The tiny events have short (3–6 μs) rise times and are well modeled by simple double couple focal mechanisms that are consistent with left-lateral slip occurring on a mm-scale patch of the precut fault surface. The repeatability of the experiments indicates that they are the result of frictional processes on the simulated fault surface rather than grain crushing or fracture of fresh rock. Our waveform analysis shows no significant differences (other than size) between the M -7 to M -5.5 earthquakes reported here and larger natural earthquakes. Their source characteristics such as stress drop (1–10 MPa) appear to be entirely consistent with earthquake scaling laws derived for larger earthquakes.

  7. Protracted fluvial recovery from medieval earthquakes, Pokhara, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolle, Amelie; Bernhardt, Anne; Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Andermann, Christoff; Schönfeldt, Elisabeth; Seidemann, Jan; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2016-04-01

    River response to strong earthquake shaking in mountainous terrain often entails the flushing of sediments delivered by widespread co-seismic landsliding. Detailed mass-balance studies following major earthquakes in China, Taiwan, and New Zealand suggest fluvial recovery times ranging from several years to decades. We report a detailed chronology of earthquake-induced valley fills in the Pokhara region of western-central Nepal, and demonstrate that rivers continue to adjust to several large medieval earthquakes to the present day, thus challenging the notion of transient fluvial response to seismic disturbance. The Pokhara valley features one of the largest and most extensively dated sedimentary records of earthquake-triggered sedimentation in the Himalayas, and independently augments paleo-seismological archives obtained mainly from fault trenches and historic documents. New radiocarbon dates from the catastrophically deposited Pokhara Formation document multiple phases of extremely high geomorphic activity between ˜700 and ˜1700 AD, preserved in thick sequences of alternating fluvial conglomerates, massive mud and silt beds, and cohesive debris-flow deposits. These dated fan-marginal slackwater sediments indicate pronounced sediment pulses in the wake of at least three large medieval earthquakes in ˜1100, 1255, and 1344 AD. We combine these dates with digital elevation models, geological maps, differential GPS data, and sediment logs to estimate the extent of these three pulses that are characterized by sedimentation rates of ˜200 mm yr-1 and peak rates as high as 1,000 mm yr-1. Some 5.5 to 9 km3 of material infilled the pre-existing topography, and is now prone to ongoing fluvial dissection along major canyons. Contemporary river incision into the Pokhara Formation is rapid (120-170 mm yr-1), triggering widespread bank erosion, channel changes, and very high sediment yields of the order of 103 to 105 t km-2 yr-1, that by far outweigh bedrock denudation rates

  8. Prestack depth migration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Postma, R.W.

    1991-01-01

    Two lines form the southern North Sea, with known velocity inhomogeneities in the overburden, have been pre-stack depth migrated. The pre-stack depth migrations are compared with conventional processing, one with severe distortions and one with subtle distortions on the conventionally processed sections. The line with subtle distortions is also compared with post-stack depth migration. The results on both lines were very successful. Both have already influenced drilling decisions, and have caused a modification of structural interpretation in the respective areas. Wells have been drilled on each of the lines, and well tops confirm the results. In fact, conventional processing led to incorrect locations for the wells, both of which were dry holes. The depth migrated sections indicate the incorrect placement, and on one line reveals a much better drilling location. This paper reports that even though processing costs are high for pre-stack depth migration, appropriate use can save millions of dollars in dry-hole expense

  9. Migration = cloning; aliasiing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hüttel, Hans; Kleist, Josva; Nestmann, Uwe

    1999-01-01

    In Obliq, a lexically scoped, distributed, object-oriented programming language, object migration was suggested as the creation of a copy of an object’s state at the target site, followed by turning the object itself into an alias, also called surrogate, for the remote copy. We consider the creat......In Obliq, a lexically scoped, distributed, object-oriented programming language, object migration was suggested as the creation of a copy of an object’s state at the target site, followed by turning the object itself into an alias, also called surrogate, for the remote copy. We consider...... the creation of object surrogates as an abstraction of the abovementioned style of migration. We introduce Øjeblik, a distribution-free subset of Obliq, and provide three different configuration-style semantics, which only differ in the respective aliasing model. We show that two of the semantics, one of which...... matches Obliq’s implementation, render migration unsafe, while our new proposal for a third semantics is provably safe. Our work suggests a straightforward repair of Obliq’s aliasing model such that it allows programs to safely migrate objects....

  10. Comprehensive treatment for gas gangrene of the limbs in earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yue; Lu, Bo; Hao, Peng; Yan, Meng-ning; Dai, Ke-rong

    2013-10-01

    Mortality rates for patients with gas gangrene from trauma or surgery are as high as 25%, but they increase to 50%-80% for patients injured in natural hazards. Early diagnosis and treatment are essential for these patients. We retrospectively analyzed the clinical characteristics and therapeutic results of 19 patients with gas gangrene of the limbs, who were injured in the May 2008 earthquake in the Wenchuan district of China's Sichuan province and treated in our hospital, to seek how to best diagnose and treat earthquake-induced gas gangrene. Of 226 patients with limbs open injuries sustained during the earthquake, 53 patients underwent smear analysis of wound exudates and gas gangrene was diagnosed in 19 patients. The average elapsed time from injury to arrival at the hospital was 72 hours, from injury to definitive diagnosis was 4.3 days, and from diagnosis to conversion of negative findings on wound smear analysis to positive findings was 12.7 days. Anaerobic cultures were also obtained before wound closure. The average elapsed time from completion of surgery to recovery of normal vital signs was 6.3 days. Of the 19 patients, 16 were treated with open amputation, two with closed amputation, and 1 with successful limb salvage; 18 patients were successfully treated and one died. In earthquakes, rapid, accurate screening and isolation are essential to successful treatment of gas gangrene and helpful in preventing nosocomial diffusion. Early and thorough debridement, open amputation, and active supportive treatment can produce satisfactory therapeutic results.

  11. Strong intermediate-depth Vreancea earthquakes: Damage capacity in Bulgaria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kouteva-Guentcheva, M.P.; Paskaleva, I.P.; Panza, G.F.

    2008-08-01

    The sustainable development of the society depends not only on a reasonable policy for economical growth but also on the reasonable management of natural risks. The regional earthquake danger due to the Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes dominates the hazard of NE Bulgaria. These quakes have particularly long-period and far-reaching effects, causing damages at large epicentral distances. Vrancea events energy attenuates considerably less rapidly than that of the wave field radiated by the seismically active zones in Bulgaria. The available strong motion records at Russe, NE Bulgaria, due to both Vrancea events - August 30, 1986 and May 30, 1990 show higher seismic response spectra amplitudes for periods up to 0.6 s for the horizontal components, compared to the values given in the Bulgarian Code and Eurocode 8. A neo-deterministic analytical procedure which models the wavefield generated by a realistic earthquake source, as it propagates through a laterally varying anelastic medium, is applied to obtain the seismic loading at Russe. After proper validation, using the few available data and parametric analyses, from the synthesized seismic signals damage capacity of selected scenario Vrancea quakes is estimated and compared with available capacity curves for some reinforced concrete and masonry structures, representative of the Balkan Region. The performed modelling has shown that the earthquake focal mechanisms control the seismic loading much more than the local geology, and that the site response should be analyzed by considering the whole thickness of sediments until the bedrock, and not only the topmost 30 m. (author)

  12. The music of earthquakes and Earthquake Quartet #1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, Andrew J.

    2013-01-01

    Earthquake Quartet #1, my composition for voice, trombone, cello, and seismograms, is the intersection of listening to earthquakes as a seismologist and performing music as a trombonist. Along the way, I realized there is a close relationship between what I do as a scientist and what I do as a musician. A musician controls the source of the sound and the path it travels through their instrument in order to make sound waves that we hear as music. An earthquake is the source of waves that travel along a path through the earth until reaching us as shaking. It is almost as if the earth is a musician and people, including seismologists, are metaphorically listening and trying to understand what the music means.

  13. Book review: Earthquakes and water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekins, Barbara A.

    2012-01-01

    It is really nice to see assembled in one place a discussion of the documented and hypothesized hydrologic effects of earthquakes. The book is divided into chapters focusing on particular hydrologic phenomena including liquefaction, mud volcanism, stream discharge increases, groundwater level, temperature and chemical changes, and geyser period changes. These hydrologic effects are inherently fascinating, and the large number of relevant publications in the past decade makes this summary a useful milepost. The book also covers hydrologic precursors and earthquake triggering by pore pressure. A natural need to limit the topics covered resulted in the omission of tsunamis and the vast literature on the role of fluids and pore pressure in frictional strength of faults. Regardless of whether research on earthquake-triggered hydrologic effects ultimately provides insight into the physics of earthquakes, the text provides welcome common ground for interdisciplinary collaborations between hydrologists and seismologists. Such collaborations continue to be crucial for investigating hypotheses about the role of fluids in earthquakes and slow slip. 

  14. Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Babayev

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

  15. Chapter D. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Aftershocks and Postseismic Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reasenberg, Paul A.

    1997-01-01

    While the damaging effects of the earthquake represent a significant social setback and economic loss, the geophysical effects have produced a wealth of data that have provided important insights into the structure and mechanics of the San Andreas Fault system. Generally, the period after a large earthquake is vitally important to monitor. During this part of the seismic cycle, the primary fault and the surrounding faults, rock bodies, and crustal fluids rapidly readjust in response to the earthquake's sudden movement. Geophysical measurements made at this time can provide unique information about fundamental properties of the fault zone, including its state of stress and the geometry and frictional/rheological properties of the faults within it. Because postseismic readjustments are rapid compared with corresponding changes occurring in the preseismic period, the amount and rate of information that is available during the postseismic period is relatively high. From a geophysical viewpoint, the occurrence of the Loma Prieta earthquake in a section of the San Andreas fault zone that is surrounded by multiple and extensive geophysical monitoring networks has produced nothing less than a scientific bonanza. The reports assembled in this chapter collectively examine available geophysical observations made before and after the earthquake and model the earthquake's principal postseismic effects. The chapter covers four broad categories of postseismic effect: (1) aftershocks; (2) postseismic fault movements; (3) postseismic surface deformation; and (4) changes in electrical conductivity and crustal fluids.

  16. Impacts of hydrogeological characteristics on groundwater-level changes induced by earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ching-Yi; Chia, Yeeping; Chuang, Po-Yu; Chiu, Yung-Chia; Tseng, Tai-Lin

    2018-03-01

    Changes in groundwater level during earthquakes have been reported worldwide. In this study, field observations of co-seismic groundwater-level changes in wells under different aquifer conditions and sampling intervals due to near-field earthquake events in Taiwan are presented. Sustained changes, usually observed immediately after earthquakes, are found in the confined aquifer. Oscillatory changes due to the dynamic strain triggered by passing earthquake waves can only be recorded by a high-frequency data logger. While co-seismic changes recover rapidly in an unconfined aquifer, they can sustain for months or longer in a confined aquifer. Three monitoring wells with long-term groundwater-level data were examined to understand the association of co-seismic changes with local hydrogeological conditions. The finite element software ABAQUS is used to simulate the pore-pressure changes induced by the displacements due to fault rupture. The calculated co-seismic change in pore pressure is related to the compressibility of the formation. The recovery rate of the change is rapid in the unconfined aquifer due to the hydrostatic condition at the water table, but slow in the confined aquifer due to the less permeable confining layer. Fracturing of the confining layer during earthquakes may enhance the dissipation of pore pressure and induce the discharge of the confined aquifer. The study results indicated that aquifer characteristics play an important role in determining groundwater-level changes during and after earthquakes.

  17. En fornemmelse for migration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schütze, Laura Maria

    Afhandlingen undersøger, hvordan sted, museets rolle som aktør og religion er relevante for produktionen af migration på Immigrantmuseet (2012) og i Københavns Museums udstilling At blive københavner (2010). Afhandlingen er baseret på udstillingsanalyse samt interview med relevant museumsfagligt......, anvendes som virkemidler til at nuancere migration og distancere udstillingen fra den offentlige debat om indvandring. Afhandlingen peger på, at produktionen af den nyere danske historie på museum er præget af et fravær af religion. Det skyldes, at de museumsfaglige praksisser og traditioner afspejler en...... identiteter, som vi tager for givet: nationer, byer, kvinder - såvel som migration og religion. Afhandlingen argumenterer følgelig for, at museernes produktion af (materiel) religion er et særdeles relevant, men kun ringe udforsket, genstandsfelt for religionssociologien....

  18. Contextual background to the rapid increase in migration from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    Buoyed by a sound economy and under pressure to redress past social ... the government adopted redistributive socialist fiscal policies (UNDP 2008). ... to South Africa, the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada and New Zealand. They ..... For many people, it was no longer worthwhile to go to work when the purchase price.

  19. Global Earthquake Hazard Frequency and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Earthquake Hazard Frequency and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid utilizing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Earthquake Catalog data of actual...

  20. Unbonded Prestressed Columns for Earthquake Resistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Modern structures are able to survive significant shaking caused by earthquakes. By implementing unbonded post-tensioned tendons in bridge columns, the damage caused by an earthquake can be significantly lower than that of a standard reinforced concr...

  1. Extreme value distribution of earthquake magnitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zi, Jun Gan; Tung, C. C.

    1983-07-01

    Probability distribution of maximum earthquake magnitude is first derived for an unspecified probability distribution of earthquake magnitude. A model for energy release of large earthquakes, similar to that of Adler-Lomnitz and Lomnitz, is introduced from which the probability distribution of earthquake magnitude is obtained. An extensive set of world data for shallow earthquakes, covering the period from 1904 to 1980, is used to determine the parameters of the probability distribution of maximum earthquake magnitude. Because of the special form of probability distribution of earthquake magnitude, a simple iterative scheme is devised to facilitate the estimation of these parameters by the method of least-squares. The agreement between the empirical and derived probability distributions of maximum earthquake magnitude is excellent.

  2. Fluid-driven normal faulting earthquake sequences in the Taiwan orogen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ling-hua; Rau, Ruey-Juin; Lee, En-Jui

    2017-04-01

    Seismicity in the Central Range of Taiwan shows normal faulting mechanisms with T-axes directing NE, subparallel to the strike of the mountain belt. We analyze earthquake sequences occurred within 2012-2015 in the Nanshan area of northern Taiwan which indicating swarm behavior and migration characteristics. We select events larger than 2.0 from Central Weather Bureau catalog and use the double-difference relocation program hypoDD with waveform cross-correlation in the Nanshan area. We obtained a final count of 1406 (95%) relocated earthquakes. Moreover, we compute focal mechanisms using USGS program HASH by P-wave first motion and S/P ratio picking and 114 fault plane solutions with M 3.0-5.87 were determined. To test for fluid diffusion, we model seismicity using the equation of Shapiro et al. (1997) by fitting earthquake diffusing rate D during the migration period. According to the relocation result, seismicity in the Taiwan orogenic belt present mostly N25E orientation parallel to the mountain belt with the same direction of the tension axis. In addition, another seismic fracture depicted by seismicity rotated 35 degree counterclockwise to the NW direction. Nearly all focal mechanisms are normal fault type. In the Nanshan area, events show N10W distribution with a focal depth range from 5-12 km and illustrate fault plane dipping about 45-60 degree to SW. Three months before the M 5.87 mainshock which occurred in March, 2013, there were some foreshock events occurred in the shallow part of the fault plane of the mainshock. Half a year following the mainshock, earthquakes migrated to the north and south, respectively with processes matched the diffusion model at a rate of 0.2-0.6 m2/s. This migration pattern and diffusion rate offer an evidence of 'fluid-driven' process in the fault zone. We also find the upward migration of earthquakes in the mainshock source region. These phenomena are likely caused by the opening of the permeable conduit due to the M 5

  3. What's driving migration?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kane, H

    1995-01-01

    During the 1990s investment in prevention of international or internal migration declined, and crisis intervention increased. The budgets of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees and the UN Development Program remained about the same. The operating assumption is that war, persecution, famine, and environmental and social disintegration are inevitable. Future efforts should be directed to stabilizing populations through investment in sanitation, public health, preventive medicine, land tenure, environmental protection, and literacy. Forces pushing migration are likely to increase in the future. Forces include depletion of natural resources, income disparities, population pressure, and political disruption. The causes of migration are not constant. In the past, migration occurred during conquests, settlement, intermarriage, or religious conversion and was a collective movement. Current migration involves mass movement of individuals and the struggle to survive. There is new pressure to leave poor squatter settlements and the scarcities in land, water, and food. The slave trade between the 1500s and the 1800s linked continents, and only 2-3 million voluntarily crossed national borders. Involuntary migration began in the early 1800s when European feudal systems were in a decline, and people sought freedom. Official refugees, who satisfy the strict 1951 UN definition, increased from 15 million in 1980 to 23 million in 1990 but remained a small proportion of international migrants. Much of the mass movement occurs between developing countries. Migration to developed countries is accompanied by growing intolerance, which is misinformed. China practices a form of "population transfer" in Tibet in order to dilute Tibetan nationalism. Colonization of countries is a new less expensive form of control over territory. Eviction of minorities is another popular strategy in Iraq. Public works projects supported by foreign aid displace millions annually. War and civil conflicts

  4. Unix Application Migration Guide

    CERN Document Server

    Microsoft. Redmond

    2003-01-01

    Drawing on the experience of Microsoft consultants working in the field, as well as external organizations that have migrated from UNIX to Microsoft® Windows®, this guide offers practical, prescriptive guidance on the issues you are likely to face when porting existing UNIX applications to the Windows operating system environment. Senior IT decision makers, network managers, and operations managers will get real-world guidance and best practices on planning and implementation issues to understand the different methods through which migration or co-existence can be accomplished. Also detailing

  5. Migrating for a Profession

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olwig, Karen Fog

    2015-01-01

    a strong sense of agency and self-empowerment. In the post-WWII period, numerous Caribbean women trained in nursing at British hospitals that have been described as marred by race and gender related inequality and associated forms of exploitation. Yet, the nurses interviewed about this training emphasised......Youths from the Global South migrating for further education often face various forms of discrimination. This Caribbean case study discusses how conditions in the home country can provide a foundation for educational migration that helps the migrants overcome such obstacles and even develop...... in which it enabled these Caribbean women to stake out a new life for themselves....

  6. Joko Tingkir program for estimating tsunami potential rapidly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Madlazim,, E-mail: m-lazim@physics.its.ac.id; Hariyono, E., E-mail: m-lazim@physics.its.ac.id [Department of Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Negeri Surabaya (UNESA) , Jl. Ketintang, Surabaya 60231 (Indonesia)

    2014-09-25

    The purpose of the study was to estimate P-wave rupture durations (T{sub dur}), dominant periods (T{sub d}) and exceeds duration (T{sub 50Ex}) simultaneously for local events, shallow earthquakes which occurred off the coast of Indonesia. Although the all earthquakes had parameters of magnitude more than 6,3 and depth less than 70 km, part of the earthquakes generated a tsunami while the other events (Mw=7.8) did not. Analysis using Joko Tingkir of the above stated parameters helped understand the tsunami generation of these earthquakes. Measurements from vertical component broadband P-wave quake velocity records and determination of the above stated parameters can provide a direct procedure for assessing rapidly the potential for tsunami generation. The results of the present study and the analysis of the seismic parameters helped explain why the events generated a tsunami, while the others did not.

  7. PRECURSORS OF EARTHQUAKES: VLF SIGNALSIONOSPHERE IONOSPHERE RELATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa ULAS

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available lot of people have died because of earthquakes every year. Therefore It is crucial to predict the time of the earthquakes reasonable time before it had happed. This paper presents recent information published in the literature about precursors of earthquakes. The relationships between earthquakes and ionosphere are targeted to guide new researches in order to study further to find novel prediction methods.

  8. EARTHQUAKE RESEARCH PROBLEMS OF NUCLEAR POWER GENERATORS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Housner, G. W.; Hudson, D. E.

    1963-10-15

    Earthquake problems associated with the construction of nuclear power generators require a more extensive and a more precise knowledge of earthquake characteristics and the dynamic behavior of structures than was considered necessary for ordinary buildings. Economic considerations indicate the desirability of additional research on the problems of earthquakes and nuclear reactors. The nature of these earthquake-resistant design problems is discussed and programs of research are recommended. (auth)

  9. Geodetic constraints on afterslip characteristics following the March 9, 2011, Sanriku-oki earthquake, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohta, Yusaku; Hino, Ryota; Inazu, Daisuke; Ohzono, Mako; Ito, Yoshihiro; Mishina, Masaaki; Iinuma, Takeshi; Nakajima, Junichi; Osada, Yukihito; Suzuki, Kensuke; Fujimoto, Hiromi; Tachibana, Kenji; Demachi, Tomotsugu; Miura, Satoshi

    2012-08-01

    A magnitude 7.3 foreshock occurred at the subducting Pacific plate interface on March 9, 2011, 51 h before the magnitude 9.0 Tohoku earthquake off the Pacific coast of Japan. We propose a coseismic and postseismic afterslip model of the magnitude 7.3 event based on a global positioning system network and ocean bottom pressure gauge sites. The estimated coseismic slip and afterslip areas show complementary spatial distributions; the afterslip distribution is located up-dip of the coseismic slip for the foreshock and northward of hypocenter of the Tohoku earthquake. The slip amount for the afterslip is roughly consistent with that determined by repeating earthquake analysis carried out in a previous study. The estimated moment release for the afterslip reached magnitude 6.8, even within a short time period of 51h. A volumetric strainmeter time series also suggests that this event advanced with a rapid decay time constant compared with other typical large earthquakes.

  10. The use of waveform shapes to automatically determine earthquake focal depth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sipkin, S.A.

    2000-01-01

    Earthquake focal depth is an important parameter for rapidly determining probable damage caused by a large earthquake. In addition, it is significant both for discriminating between natural events and explosions and for discriminating between tsunamigenic and nontsunamigenic earthquakes. For the purpose of notifying emergency management and disaster relief organizations as well as issuing tsunami warnings, potential time delays in determining source parameters are particularly detrimental. We present a method for determining earthquake focal depth that is well suited for implementation in an automated system that utilizes the wealth of broadband teleseismic data that is now available in real time from the global seismograph networks. This method uses waveform shapes to determine focal depth and is demonstrated to be valid for events with magnitudes as low as approximately 5.5.

  11. Fault geometry and earthquake mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. Andrews

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available Earthquake mechanics may be determined by the geometry of a fault system. Slip on a fractal branching fault surface can explain: 1 regeneration of stress irregularities in an earthquake; 2 the concentration of stress drop in an earthquake into asperities; 3 starting and stopping of earthquake slip at fault junctions, and 4 self-similar scaling of earthquakes. Slip at fault junctions provides a natural realization of barrier and asperity models without appealing to variations of fault strength. Fault systems are observed to have a branching fractal structure, and slip may occur at many fault junctions in an earthquake. Consider the mechanics of slip at one fault junction. In order to avoid a stress singularity of order 1/r, an intersection of faults must be a triple junction and the Burgers vectors on the three fault segments at the junction must sum to zero. In other words, to lowest order the deformation consists of rigid block displacement, which ensures that the local stress due to the dislocations is zero. The elastic dislocation solution, however, ignores the fact that the configuration of the blocks changes at the scale of the displacement. A volume change occurs at the junction; either a void opens or intense local deformation is required to avoid material overlap. The volume change is proportional to the product of the slip increment and the total slip since the formation of the junction. Energy absorbed at the junction, equal to confining pressure times the volume change, is not large enongh to prevent slip at a new junction. The ratio of energy absorbed at a new junction to elastic energy released in an earthquake is no larger than P/µ where P is confining pressure and µ is the shear modulus. At a depth of 10 km this dimensionless ratio has th value P/µ= 0.01. As slip accumulates at a fault junction in a number of earthquakes, the fault segments are displaced such that they no longer meet at a single point. For this reason the

  12. Historical earthquake investigations in Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Makropoulos

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available The active tectonics of the area of Greece and its seismic activity have always been present in the country?s history. Many researchers, tempted to work on Greek historical earthquakes, have realized that this is a task not easily fulfilled. The existing catalogues of strong historical earthquakes are useful tools to perform general SHA studies. However, a variety of supporting datasets, non-uniformly distributed in space and time, need to be further investigated. In the present paper, a review of historical earthquake studies in Greece is attempted. The seismic history of the country is divided into four main periods. In each one of them, characteristic examples, studies and approaches are presented.

  13. Field Observations of Precursors to Large Earthquakes: Interpreting and Verifying Their Causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suyehiro, K.; Sacks, S. I.; Rydelek, P. A.; Smith, D. E.; Takanami, T.

    2017-12-01

    Many reports of precursory anomalies before large earthquakes exist. However, it has proven elusive to even identify these signals before their actual occurrences. They often only become evident in retrospect. A probabilistic cellular automaton model (Sacks and Rydelek, 1995) explains many of the statistical and dynamic natures of earthquakes including the observed b-value decrease towards a large earthquake or a small stress perturbation to have effect on earthquake occurrence pattern. It also reproduces dynamic characters of each earthquake rupture. This model is useful in gaining insights on causal relationship behind complexities. For example, some reported cases of background seismicity quiescence before a main shock only seen for events larger than M=3 4 at years time scale can be reproduced by this model, if only a small fraction ( 2%) of the component cells are strengthened by a small amount. Such an enhancement may physically occur if a tiny and scattered portion of the seismogenic crust undergoes dilatancy hardening. Such a process to occur will be dependent on the fluid migration and microcracks developments under tectonic loading. Eventual large earthquake faulting will be promoted by the intrusion of excess water from surrounding rocks into the zone capable of cascading slips to a large area. We propose this process manifests itself on the surface as hydrologic, geochemical, or macroscopic anomalies, for which so many reports exist. We infer from seismicity that the eastern Nankai Trough (Tokai) area of central Japan is already in the stage of M-dependent seismic quiescence. Therefore, we advocate that new observations sensitive to detecting water migration in Tokai should be implemented. In particular, vertical component strain, gravity, and/or electrical conductivity, should be observed for verification.

  14. Fault failure with moderate earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, M. J. S.; Linde, A. T.; Gladwin, M. T.; Borcherdt, R. D.

    1987-12-01

    High resolution strain and tilt recordings were made in the near-field of, and prior to, the May 1983 Coalinga earthquake ( ML = 6.7, Δ = 51 km), the August 4, 1985, Kettleman Hills earthquake ( ML = 5.5, Δ = 34 km), the April 1984 Morgan Hill earthquake ( ML = 6.1, Δ = 55 km), the November 1984 Round Valley earthquake ( ML = 5.8, Δ = 54 km), the January 14, 1978, Izu, Japan earthquake ( ML = 7.0, Δ = 28 km), and several other smaller magnitude earthquakes. These recordings were made with near-surface instruments (resolution 10 -8), with borehole dilatometers (resolution 10 -10) and a 3-component borehole strainmeter (resolution 10 -9). While observed coseismic offsets are generally in good agreement with expectations from elastic dislocation theory, and while post-seismic deformation continued, in some cases, with a moment comparable to that of the main shock, preseismic strain or tilt perturbations from hours to seconds (or less) before the main shock are not apparent above the present resolution. Precursory slip for these events, if any occurred, must have had a moment less than a few percent of that of the main event. To the extent that these records reflect general fault behavior, the strong constraint on the size and amount of slip triggering major rupture makes prediction of the onset times and final magnitudes of the rupture zones a difficult task unless the instruments are fortuitously installed near the rupture initiation point. These data are best explained by an inhomogeneous failure model for which various areas of the fault plane have either different stress-slip constitutive laws or spatially varying constitutive parameters. Other work on seismic waveform analysis and synthetic waveforms indicates that the rupturing process is inhomogeneous and controlled by points of higher strength. These models indicate that rupture initiation occurs at smaller regions of higher strength which, when broken, allow runaway catastrophic failure.

  15. Monitoring Seismic Velocity Change to Explore the Earthquake Seismogenic Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, C. F.; Wen, S.; Chen, C.

    2017-12-01

    Studying spatial-temporal variations of subsurface velocity structures is still a challenge work, but it can provide important information not only on geometry of a fault, but also the rheology change induced from the strong earthquake. In 1999, a disastrous Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw7.6; Chi-Chi EQ) occurred in central Taiwan and caused great impacts on Taiwan's society. Therefore, the major objective of this research is to investigate whether the rheology change of fault can be associated with seismogenic process before strong earthquake. In addition, after the strike of the Chi-Chi EQ, whether the subsurface velocity structure resumes to its steady state is another issue in this study. Therefore, for the above purpose, we have applied a 3D tomographic technique to obtain P- and S-wave velocity structures in central Taiwan using travel time data provided by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB). One major advantage of this method is that we can include out-of-network data to improve the resolution of velocity structures at deeper depths in our study area. The results show that the temporal variations of Vp are less significant than Vs (or Vp/Vs ratio), and Vp is not prominent perturbed before and after the occurrence of the Chi-Chi EQ. However, the Vs (or Vp/Vs ratio) structure in the source area demonstrates significant spatial-temporal difference before and after the mainshock. From the results, before the mainshock, Vs began to decrease (Vp/Vs ratio was increased as well) at the hanging wall of Chelungpu fault, which may be induced by the increasing density of microcracks and fluid. But in the vicinities of Chi-Chi Earthquake's source area, Vs was increasing (Vp/Vs ratio was also decreased). This phenomenon may be owing to the closing of cracks or migration of fluid. Due to the different physical characteristics around the source area, strong earthquake may be easily nucleated at the junctional zone. Our findings suggest that continuously monitoring the Vp and Vs (or

  16. Modeling, Forecasting and Mitigating Extreme Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Le Mouel, J.; Soloviev, A.

    2012-12-01

    Recent earthquake disasters highlighted the importance of multi- and trans-disciplinary studies of earthquake risk. A major component of earthquake disaster risk analysis is hazards research, which should cover not only a traditional assessment of ground shaking, but also studies of geodetic, paleoseismic, geomagnetic, hydrological, deep drilling and other geophysical and geological observations together with comprehensive modeling of earthquakes and forecasting extreme events. Extreme earthquakes (large magnitude and rare events) are manifestations of complex behavior of the lithosphere structured as a hierarchical system of blocks of different sizes. Understanding of physics and dynamics of the extreme events comes from observations, measurements and modeling. A quantitative approach to simulate earthquakes in models of fault dynamics will be presented. The models reproduce basic features of the observed seismicity (e.g., the frequency-magnitude relationship, clustering of earthquakes, occurrence of extreme seismic events). They provide a link between geodynamic processes and seismicity, allow studying extreme events, influence of fault network properties on seismic patterns and seismic cycles, and assist, in a broader sense, in earthquake forecast modeling. Some aspects of predictability of large earthquakes (how well can large earthquakes be predicted today?) will be also discussed along with possibilities in mitigation of earthquake disasters (e.g., on 'inverse' forensic investigations of earthquake disasters).

  17. 13 CFR 120.174 - Earthquake hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Earthquake hazards. 120.174... Applying to All Business Loans Requirements Imposed Under Other Laws and Orders § 120.174 Earthquake..., the construction must conform with the “National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (“NEHRP...

  18. Re‐estimated effects of deep episodic slip on the occurrence and probability of great earthquakes in Cascadia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beeler, Nicholas M.; Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; McCausland, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    Mazzotti and Adams (2004) estimated that rapid deep slip during typically two week long episodes beneath northern Washington and southern British Columbia increases the probability of a great Cascadia earthquake by 30–100 times relative to the probability during the ∼58 weeks between slip events. Because the corresponding absolute probability remains very low at ∼0.03% per week, their conclusion is that though it is more likely that a great earthquake will occur during a rapid slip event than during other times, a great earthquake is unlikely to occur during any particular rapid slip event. This previous estimate used a failure model in which great earthquakes initiate instantaneously at a stress threshold. We refine the estimate, assuming a delayed failure model that is based on laboratory‐observed earthquake initiation. Laboratory tests show that failure of intact rock in shear and the onset of rapid slip on pre‐existing faults do not occur at a threshold stress. Instead, slip onset is gradual and shows a damped response to stress and loading rate changes. The characteristic time of failure depends on loading rate and effective normal stress. Using this model, the probability enhancement during the period of rapid slip in Cascadia is negligible (stresses of 10 MPa or more and only increases by 1.5 times for an effective normal stress of 1 MPa. We present arguments that the hypocentral effective normal stress exceeds 1 MPa. In addition, the probability enhancement due to rapid slip extends into the interevent period. With this delayed failure model for effective normal stresses greater than or equal to 50 kPa, it is more likely that a great earthquake will occur between the periods of rapid deep slip than during them. Our conclusion is that great earthquake occurrence is not significantly enhanced by episodic deep slip events.

  19. Computational methods in earthquake engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Plevris, Vagelis; Lagaros, Nikos

    2017-01-01

    This is the third book in a series on Computational Methods in Earthquake Engineering. The purpose of this volume is to bring together the scientific communities of Computational Mechanics and Structural Dynamics, offering a wide coverage of timely issues on contemporary Earthquake Engineering. This volume will facilitate the exchange of ideas in topics of mutual interest and can serve as a platform for establishing links between research groups with complementary activities. The computational aspects are emphasized in order to address difficult engineering problems of great social and economic importance. .

  20. Earthquake Education in Prime Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Groot, R.; Abbott, P.; Benthien, M.

    2004-12-01

    Since 2001, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has collaborated on several video production projects that feature important topics related to earthquake science, engineering, and preparedness. These projects have also fostered many fruitful and sustained partnerships with a variety of organizations that have a stake in hazard education and preparedness. The Seismic Sleuths educational video first appeared in the spring season 2001 on Discovery Channel's Assignment Discovery. Seismic Sleuths is based on a highly successful curriculum package developed jointly by the American Geophysical Union and The Department of Homeland Security Federal Emergency Management Agency. The California Earthquake Authority (CEA) and the Institute for Business and Home Safety supported the video project. Summer Productions, a company with a reputation for quality science programming, produced the Seismic Sleuths program in close partnership with scientists, engineers, and preparedness experts. The program has aired on the National Geographic Channel as recently as Fall 2004. Currently, SCEC is collaborating with Pat Abbott, a geology professor at San Diego State University (SDSU) on the video project Written In Stone: Earthquake Country - Los Angeles. Partners on this project include the California Seismic Safety Commission, SDSU, SCEC, CEA, and the Insurance Information Network of California. This video incorporates live-action demonstrations, vivid animations, and a compelling host (Abbott) to tell the story about earthquakes in the Los Angeles region. The Written in Stone team has also developed a comprehensive educator package that includes the video, maps, lesson plans, and other supporting materials. We will present the process that facilitates the creation of visually effective, factually accurate, and entertaining video programs. We acknowledge the need to have a broad understanding of the literature related to communication, media studies, science education, and

  1. Radon as an earthquake precursor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planinic, J.; Radolic, V.; Vukovic, B.

    2004-01-01

    Radon concentrations in soil gas were continuously measured by the LR-115 nuclear track detectors during a four-year period. Seismic activities, as well as barometric pressure, rainfall and air temperature were also observed. The influence of meteorological parameters on temporal radon variations was investigated, and a respective equation of the multiple regression was derived. The earthquakes with magnitude ≥3 at epicentral distances ≤200 km were recognized by means of radon anomaly. Empirical equations between earthquake magnitude, epicentral distance and precursor time were examined, and respective constants were determined

  2. Radon as an earthquake precursor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Planinic, J. E-mail: planinic@pedos.hr; Radolic, V.; Vukovic, B

    2004-09-11

    Radon concentrations in soil gas were continuously measured by the LR-115 nuclear track detectors during a four-year period. Seismic activities, as well as barometric pressure, rainfall and air temperature were also observed. The influence of meteorological parameters on temporal radon variations was investigated, and a respective equation of the multiple regression was derived. The earthquakes with magnitude {>=}3 at epicentral distances {<=}200 km were recognized by means of radon anomaly. Empirical equations between earthquake magnitude, epicentral distance and precursor time were examined, and respective constants were determined.

  3. Earthquake location in island arcs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engdahl, E.R.; Dewey, J.W.; Fujita, K.

    1982-01-01

    A comprehensive data set of selected teleseismic P-wave arrivals and local-network P- and S-wave arrivals from large earthquakes occurring at all depths within a small section of the central Aleutians is used to examine the general problem of earthquake location in island arcs. Reference hypocenters for this special data set are determined for shallow earthquakes from local-network data and for deep earthquakes from combined local and teleseismic data by joint inversion for structure and location. The high-velocity lithospheric slab beneath the central Aleutians may displace hypocenters that are located using spherically symmetric Earth models; the amount of displacement depends on the position of the earthquakes with respect to the slab and on whether local or teleseismic data are used to locate the earthquakes. Hypocenters for trench and intermediate-depth events appear to be minimally biased by the effects of slab structure on rays to teleseismic stations. However, locations of intermediate-depth events based on only local data are systematically displaced southwards, the magnitude of the displacement being proportional to depth. Shallow-focus events along the main thrust zone, although well located using only local-network data, are severely shifted northwards and deeper, with displacements as large as 50 km, by slab effects on teleseismic travel times. Hypocenters determined by a method that utilizes seismic ray tracing through a three-dimensional velocity model of the subduction zone, derived by thermal modeling, are compared to results obtained by the method of joint hypocenter determination (JHD) that formally assumes a laterally homogeneous velocity model over the source region and treats all raypath anomalies as constant station corrections to the travel-time curve. The ray-tracing method has the theoretical advantage that it accounts for variations in travel-time anomalies within a group of events distributed over a sizable region of a dipping, high

  4. Rrsm: The European Rapid Raw Strong-Motion Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cauzzi, C.; Clinton, J. F.; Sleeman, R.; Domingo Ballesta, J.; Kaestli, P.; Galanis, O.

    2014-12-01

    We introduce the European Rapid Raw Strong-Motion database (RRSM), a Europe-wide system that provides parameterised strong motion information, as well as access to waveform data, within minutes of the occurrence of strong earthquakes. The RRSM significantly differs from traditional earthquake strong motion dissemination in Europe, which has focused on providing reviewed, processed strong motion parameters, typically with significant delays. As the RRSM provides rapid open access to raw waveform data and metadata and does not rely on external manual waveform processing, RRSM information is tailored to seismologists and strong-motion data analysts, earthquake and geotechnical engineers, international earthquake response agencies and the educated general public. Access to the RRSM database is via a portal at http://www.orfeus-eu.org/rrsm/ that allows users to query earthquake information, peak ground motion parameters and amplitudes of spectral response; and to select and download earthquake waveforms. All information is available within minutes of any earthquake with magnitude ≥ 3.5 occurring in the Euro-Mediterranean region. Waveform processing and database population are performed using the waveform processing module scwfparam, which is integrated in SeisComP3 (SC3; http://www.seiscomp3.org/). Earthquake information is provided by the EMSC (http://www.emsc-csem.org/) and all the seismic waveform data is accessed at the European Integrated waveform Data Archive (EIDA) at ORFEUS (http://www.orfeus-eu.org/index.html), where all on-scale data is used in the fully automated processing. As the EIDA community is continually growing, the already significant number of strong motion stations is also increasing and the importance of this product is expected to also increase. Real-time RRSM processing started in June 2014, while past events have been processed in order to provide a complete database back to 2005.

  5. Crowdsourcing earthquake damage assessment using remote sensing imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart Gill

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the evolution of recent work on using crowdsourced analysis of remote sensing imagery, particularly high-resolution aerial imagery, to provide rapid, reliable assessments of damage caused by earthquakes and potentially other disasters. The initial effort examined online imagery taken after the 2008 Wenchuan, China, earthquake. A more recent response to the 2010 Haiti earthquake led to the formation of an international consortium: the Global Earth Observation Catastrophe Assessment Network (GEO-CAN. The success of GEO-CAN in contributing to the official damage assessments made by the Government of Haiti, the United Nations, and the World Bank led to further development of a web-based interface. A current initiative in Christchurch, New Zealand, is underway where remote sensing experts are analyzing satellite imagery, geotechnical engineers are marking liquefaction areas, and structural engineers are identifying building damage. The current site includes online training to improve the accuracy of the assessments and make it possible for even novice users to contribute to the crowdsourced solution. The paper discusses lessons learned from these initiatives and presents a way forward for using crowdsourced remote sensing as a tool for rapid assessment of damage caused by natural disasters around the world.

  6. Geodetic characteristic of the postseismic deformation following the interplate large earthquake along the Japan Trench (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohta, Y.; Hino, R.; Ariyoshi, K.; Matsuzawa, T.; Mishina, M.; Sato, T.; Inazu, D.; Ito, Y.; Tachibana, K.; Demachi, T.; Miura, S.

    2013-12-01

    On March 9, 2011 at 2:45 (UTC), an M7.3 interplate earthquake (hereafter foreshock) occurred ~45 km northeast of the epicenter of the M9.0 2011 Tohoku earthquake. This foreshock preceded the 2011 Tohoku earthquake by 51 hours. Ohta et al., (2012, GRL) estimated co- and postseismic afterslip distribution based on a dense GPS network and ocean bottom pressure gauge sites. They found the afterslip distribution was mainly concentrated in the up-dip extension of the coseismic slip. The coseismic slip and afterslip distribution of the foreshock were also located in the slip deficit region (between 20-40m slip) of the coiseismic slip of the M9.0 mainshock. The slip amount for the afterslip is roughly consistent with that determined by repeating earthquake analysis carried out in a previous study (Kato et al., 2012, Science). The estimated moment release for the afterslip reached magnitude 6.8, even within a short time period of 51 hours. They also pointed out that a volumetric strainmeter time series suggests that this event advanced with a rapid decay time constant (4.8 h) compared with other typical large earthquakes. The decay time constant of the afterslip may reflect the frictional property of the plate interface, especially effective normal stress controlled by fluid. For verification of the short decay time constant of the foreshock, we investigated the postseismic deformation characteristic following the 1989 and 1992 Sanriku-Oki earthquakes (M7.1 and M6.9), 2003 and 2005 Miyagi-Oki earthquakes (M6.8 and M7.2), and 2008 Fukushima-Oki earthquake (M6.9). We used four components extensometer at Miyako (39.59N, 141.98E) on the Sanriku coast for 1989 and 1992 event. For 2003, 2005 and 2008 events, we used volumetric strainmeter at Kinka-zan (38.27N, 141.58E) and Enoshima (38.27N, 141.60E). To extract the characteristics of the postseismic deformation, we fitted the logarithmic function. The estimated decay time constants for each earthquake had almost similar range (1

  7. Dancing Earthquake Science Assists Recovery from the Christchurch Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egan, Candice J.; Quigley, Mark C.

    2015-01-01

    The 2010-2012 Christchurch (Canterbury) earthquakes in New Zealand caused loss of life and psychological distress in residents throughout the region. In 2011, student dancers of the Hagley Dance Company and dance professionals choreographed the performance "Move: A Seismic Journey" for the Christchurch Body Festival that explored…

  8. Migrating the Light

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Bent

    The migration of Blaga’s universalist, even centralist poems from Romanian of the first third of the 20th C. into American of the first fifth of the 21st C. illustrates the uses of Pierre Joris’s nomadic methods. My translations of Blaga read well for a teenage audience whose only exposure to lit...

  9. Describing migration spatial structure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rogers, A; Willekens, F; Little, J; Raymer, J

    The age structure of a population is a fundamental concept in demography and is generally depicted in the form of an age pyramid. The spatial structure of an interregional system of origin-destination-specific migration streams is, however, a notion lacking a widely accepted definition. We offer a

  10. Brain Migration Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinokur, Annie

    2006-01-01

    The "brain drain/brain gain" debate has been going on for the past 40 years, with irresolvable theoretical disputes and unenforceable policy recommendations that economists commonly ascribe to the lack of reliable empirical data. The recent report of the World Bank, "International migration, remittances and the brain drain", documents the…

  11. Migration and Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zoppi, Marco

    2014-01-01

    European powers imposed the nation-state on Africa through colonialism. But even after African independencies, mainstream discourses and government policies have amplified the idea that sedentariness and the state are the only acceptable mode of modernity. Migration is portrayed as a menace...

  12. Migration as Adventure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olwig, Karen Fog

    2018-01-01

    Narratives of adventure constitute a well-established convention of describing travel experiences, yet the significance of this narrative genre in individuals’ accounts of their migration and life abroad has been little investigated. Drawing on Simmel and Bakhtin, among others, this article...

  13. Digitizing migration heritage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marselis, Randi

    2011-01-01

    Museums are increasingly digitizing their collections and making them available to the public on-line. Creating such digital resources may become means for social inclusion. For museums that acknowledge migration history and cultures of ethnic minority groups as important subjects in multiethnic...

  14. The politicisation of migration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Brug, W.; D' Amato, G.; Berkhout, J.; Ruedin, D.

    2015-01-01

    Why are migration policies sometimes heavily contested and high on the political agenda? And why do they, at other moments and in other countries, hardly lead to much public debate? The entrance and settlement of migrants in Western Europe has prompted various political reactions. In some countries

  15. Practical Data Migration

    CERN Document Server

    Morris, Johny

    2012-01-01

    This book is for executives and practitioners tasked with the movement of data from old systems to a new repository. It uses a series of steps guaranteed to get the reader from an empty new system to one that is working and backed by the user population. Using this proven methodology will vastly increase the chances of a successful migration.

  16. International Migration of Couples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Junge, Martin; Munk, Martin D.; Nikolka, Till

    2018-01-01

    Migrant self-selection is important to labor markets and public finances in both origin and destination countries. We develop a theoretical model regarding the migration of dual-earner couples and test it using population-wide administrative data from Denmark. Our model predicts that the probabil...

  17. Reading a 400,000-year record of earthquake frequency for an intraplate fault.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Randolph T; Goodwin, Laurel B; Sharp, Warren D; Mozley, Peter S

    2017-05-09

    Our understanding of the frequency of large earthquakes at timescales longer than instrumental and historical records is based mostly on paleoseismic studies of fast-moving plate-boundary faults. Similar study of intraplate faults has been limited until now, because intraplate earthquake recurrence intervals are generally long (10s to 100s of thousands of years) relative to conventional paleoseismic records determined by trenching. Long-term variations in the earthquake recurrence intervals of intraplate faults therefore are poorly understood. Longer paleoseismic records for intraplate faults are required both to better quantify their earthquake recurrence intervals and to test competing models of earthquake frequency (e.g., time-dependent, time-independent, and clustered). We present the results of U-Th dating of calcite veins in the Loma Blanca normal fault zone, Rio Grande rift, New Mexico, United States, that constrain earthquake recurrence intervals over much of the past ∼550 ka-the longest direct record of seismic frequency documented for any fault to date. The 13 distinct seismic events delineated by this effort demonstrate that for >400 ka, the Loma Blanca fault produced periodic large earthquakes, consistent with a time-dependent model of earthquake recurrence. However, this time-dependent series was interrupted by a cluster of earthquakes at ∼430 ka. The carbon isotope composition of calcite formed during this seismic cluster records rapid degassing of CO 2 , suggesting an interval of anomalous fluid source. In concert with U-Th dates recording decreased recurrence intervals, we infer seismicity during this interval records fault-valve behavior. These data provide insight into the long-term seismic behavior of the Loma Blanca fault and, by inference, other intraplate faults.

  18. Reading a 400,000-year record of earthquake frequency for an intraplate fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Randolph T.; Goodwin, Laurel B.; Sharp, Warren D.; Mozley, Peter S.

    2017-05-01

    Our understanding of the frequency of large earthquakes at timescales longer than instrumental and historical records is based mostly on paleoseismic studies of fast-moving plate-boundary faults. Similar study of intraplate faults has been limited until now, because intraplate earthquake recurrence intervals are generally long (10s to 100s of thousands of years) relative to conventional paleoseismic records determined by trenching. Long-term variations in the earthquake recurrence intervals of intraplate faults therefore are poorly understood. Longer paleoseismic records for intraplate faults are required both to better quantify their earthquake recurrence intervals and to test competing models of earthquake frequency (e.g., time-dependent, time-independent, and clustered). We present the results of U-Th dating of calcite veins in the Loma Blanca normal fault zone, Rio Grande rift, New Mexico, United States, that constrain earthquake recurrence intervals over much of the past ˜550 ka—the longest direct record of seismic frequency documented for any fault to date. The 13 distinct seismic events delineated by this effort demonstrate that for >400 ka, the Loma Blanca fault produced periodic large earthquakes, consistent with a time-dependent model of earthquake recurrence. However, this time-dependent series was interrupted by a cluster of earthquakes at ˜430 ka. The carbon isotope composition of calcite formed during this seismic cluster records rapid degassing of CO2, suggesting an interval of anomalous fluid source. In concert with U-Th dates recording decreased recurrence intervals, we infer seismicity during this interval records fault-valve behavior. These data provide insight into the long-term seismic behavior of the Loma Blanca fault and, by inference, other intraplate faults.

  19. The global summit on nurse faculty migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Patricia E; Benton, David C; Adams, Elizabeth; Morin, Karen H; Barry, Jean; Prevost, Suzanne S; Vlasich, Cynthia; Oywer, Elizabeth

    2014-01-01

    As global demand for health care workers burgeons, information is scant regarding the migration of faculty who will train new nurses. With dual roles as clinicians and educators, and corresponding dual sets of professional and legal obligations, nurse faculty may confront unique circumstances in migration that can impact nations' ability to secure an adequate, stable nursing workforce. In a seminal effort to address these concerns, the Honor Society of Nursing, Sigma Theta Tau International, and the International Council of Nurses invited a diverse group of international experts to a summit designed to elucidate forces that drive nurse faculty migration. The primary areas of consideration were the impact on nurse faculty migration of rapid health care workforce scale-up, international trade agreements, and workforce aging. Long-term summit goals included initiating action affecting national, regional, and global supplies of nurse educators and helping to avert catastrophic failure of health care delivery systems caused by an inadequate ability to educate next-generation nurses. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Migrating mule deer: effects of anthropogenically altered landscapes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick E Lendrum

    Full Text Available Migration is an adaptive strategy that enables animals to enhance resource availability and reduce risk of predation at a broad geographic scale. Ungulate migrations generally occur along traditional routes, many of which have been disrupted by anthropogenic disturbances. Spring migration in ungulates is of particular importance for conservation planning, because it is closely coupled with timing of parturition. The degree to which oil and gas development affects migratory patterns, and whether ungulate migration is sufficiently plastic to compensate for such changes, warrants additional study to better understand this critical conservation issue.We studied timing and synchrony of departure from winter range and arrival to summer range of female mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus in northwestern Colorado, USA, which has one of the largest natural-gas reserves currently under development in North America. We hypothesized that in addition to local weather, plant phenology, and individual life-history characteristics, patterns of spring migration would be modified by disturbances associated with natural-gas extraction. We captured 205 adult female mule deer, equipped them with GPS collars, and observed patterns of spring migration during 2008-2010.Timing of spring migration was related to winter weather (particularly snow depth and access to emerging vegetation, which varied among years, but was highly synchronous across study areas within years. Additionally, timing of migration was influenced by the collective effects of anthropogenic disturbance, rate of travel, distance traveled, and body condition of adult females. Rates of travel were more rapid over shorter migration distances in areas of high natural-gas development resulting in the delayed departure, but early arrival for females migrating in areas with high development compared with less-developed areas. Such shifts in behavior could have consequences for timing of arrival on birthing areas

  1. Migration and Remittances : Recent Developments and Outlook - Transit Migration

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank Group

    2018-01-01

    This Migration and Development Brief reports global trends in migration and remittance flows, as well as developments related to the Global Compact on Migration (GCM), and the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators for volume of remittances as percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) (SDG indicator 17.3.2), reducing remittance costs (SDG indicator 10.c.1) and recruitment costs (SD...

  2. Predictability of Landslide Timing From Quasi-Periodic Precursory Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Andrew F.

    2018-02-01

    Accelerating rates of geophysical signals are observed before a range of material failure phenomena. They provide insights into the physical processes controlling failure and the basis for failure forecasts. However, examples of accelerating seismicity before landslides are rare, and their behavior and forecasting potential are largely unknown. Here I use a Bayesian methodology to apply a novel gamma point process model to investigate a sequence of quasiperiodic repeating earthquakes preceding a large landslide at Nuugaatsiaq in Greenland in June 2017. The evolution in earthquake rate is best explained by an inverse power law increase with time toward failure, as predicted by material failure theory. However, the commonly accepted power law exponent value of 1.0 is inconsistent with the data. Instead, the mean posterior value of 0.71 indicates a particularly rapid acceleration toward failure and suggests that only relatively short warning times may be possible for similar landslides in future.

  3. Anomalies in oil and water wells and the Tangshan earthquake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, W.

    1980-01-01

    Bin County, Shandong Province, has a complicated fault structure resulting from the interaction of a number of fault blocks. An examination of the behavior of oil wells in various oilfields located in faulting areas showed anomalies in 7 of them related to the Tangshan earthquake. Three wells (Nos. 88, 101, and 102) showed sharp peaks in output within a month before the earthquake. One well (No. 278) showed a sharp peak in the oil-gas ratio in April and July of 1976. There was a sharp increase in the water content of the oil produced by one well (No. 285) in July. Finally, one well (4-Xi4-10) showed a decrease in the rate of change of static pressure, starting in March 1976 and achieving a plateau in June which persisted until October before the static pressure again began to change more rapidly.

  4. Modification of doping front migration in electrochemical devices and application to organic electronics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nolte, Marius; Wan Xianglong; Kopp, Olga; Hermes, Ina; Panz, Jan; Rahmanian, Afsaneh; Knoll, Meinhard

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → In this paper we demonstrate several ways of tuning the doping front migration process in polymer electronic multilayer structures for the first time. By altering the migration layer thickness the migration velocity may be controlled and it is possible to switch between migration mechanisms. The mechanism of delamination produces rapid jumps in migration velocity, while the addition of 2-hydroxyethylcellulose (HEC) can inhibit this effect. In case of vapor activation the migration velocity may be influenced by the relative humidity or by varying the concentration of hygroscopic salts added to the migration layer. The migration mechanisms can be explained in terms of diffusion, capillary transport, and delamination. Tuning the migration process may be used to construct polymer electronic structures such as enhancement and depletion type pseudo transistors and electrical switches (ON-OFF and OFF-ON) with an improved switching time of several minutes. The doping front width is determined by microscopic optical absorption spectroscopy and can be controlled by the concentration of the doping solution. In case of low concentrations the electrochromic effect of the double front is observed. - Abstract: We demonstrate several methods of modifying the doping front migration process in multilayer structures, enabling control of migration velocity and switching between different migration mechanisms. Sharp jumps in migration velocity may be induced using a delamination effect. The influence of migration layer thickness and composition is examined. Migration velocity may also be influenced by exposing the system to a defined relative humidity or by varying the concentration of a hygroscopic salt in the migration layer. The migration mechanisms can be explained in terms of diffusion, capillary transport, and delamination. By tailoring the migration process a variety of polymer electronic structures such as pseudo transistors (enhancement and depletion

  5. Earthquake predictions using seismic velocity ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherburne, R. W.

    1979-01-01

    Since the beginning of modern seismology, seismologists have contemplated predicting earthquakes. The usefulness of earthquake predictions to the reduction of human and economic losses and the value of long-range earthquake prediction to planning is obvious. Not as clear are the long-range economic and social impacts of earthquake prediction to a speicifc area. The general consensus of opinion among scientists and government officials, however, is that the quest of earthquake prediction is a worthwhile goal and should be prusued with a sense of urgency. 

  6. Measuring the size of an earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spence, W.; Sipkin, S.A.; Choy, G.L.

    1989-01-01

    Earthquakes range broadly in size. A rock-burst in an Idaho silver mine may involve the fracture of 1 meter of rock; the 1965 Rat Island earthquake in the Aleutian arc involved a 650-kilometer length of the Earth's crust. Earthquakes can be even smaller and even larger. If an earthquake is felt or causes perceptible surface damage, then its intensity of shaking can be subjectively estimated. But many large earthquakes occur in oceanic areas or at great focal depths and are either simply not felt or their felt pattern does not really indicate their true size.

  7. Earthquakes-Rattling the Earth's Plumbing System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sneed, Michelle; Galloway, Devin L.; Cunningham, William L.

    2003-01-01

    Hydrogeologic responses to earthquakes have been known for decades, and have occurred both close to, and thousands of miles from earthquake epicenters. Water wells have become turbid, dry or begun flowing, discharge of springs and ground water to streams has increased and new springs have formed, and well and surface-water quality have become degraded as a result of earthquakes. Earthquakes affect our Earth’s intricate plumbing system—whether you live near the notoriously active San Andreas Fault in California, or far from active faults in Florida, an earthquake near or far can affect you and the water resources you depend on.

  8. THE ROMANIAN MIGRATIONAL EVOLUTION PHENOMENON

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian Raluca

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available In our contemporary democratic society the migration phenomenon meets unknown valences in any previous societies. Free will and right to self-determination, much exploited by the XX century society., raised the possibility of interpretation of migration

  9. Earthquake scaling laws for rupture geometry and slip heterogeneity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.; Mai, P. Martin; Goda, Katsuichiro

    2016-04-01

    We analyze an extensive compilation of finite-fault rupture models to investigate earthquake scaling of source geometry and slip heterogeneity to derive new relationships for seismic and tsunami hazard assessment. Our dataset comprises 158 earthquakes with a total of 316 rupture models selected from the SRCMOD database (http://equake-rc.info/srcmod). We find that fault-length does not saturate with earthquake magnitude, while fault-width reveals inhibited growth due to the finite seismogenic thickness. For strike-slip earthquakes, fault-length grows more rapidly with increasing magnitude compared to events of other faulting types. Interestingly, our derived relationship falls between the L-model and W-model end-members. In contrast, both reverse and normal dip-slip events are more consistent with self-similar scaling of fault-length. However, fault-width scaling relationships for large strike-slip and normal dip-slip events, occurring on steeply dipping faults (δ~90° for strike-slip faults, and δ~60° for normal faults), deviate from self-similarity. Although reverse dip-slip events in general show self-similar scaling, the restricted growth of down-dip fault extent (with upper limit of ~200 km) can be seen for mega-thrust subduction events (M~9.0). Despite this fact, for a given earthquake magnitude, subduction reverse dip-slip events occupy relatively larger rupture area, compared to shallow crustal events. In addition, we characterize slip heterogeneity in terms of its probability distribution and spatial correlation structure to develop a complete stochastic random-field characterization of earthquake slip. We find that truncated exponential law best describes the probability distribution of slip, with observable scale parameters determined by the average and maximum slip. Applying Box-Cox transformation to slip distributions (to create quasi-normal distributed data) supports cube-root transformation, which also implies distinctive non-Gaussian slip

  10. Summary of earthquake experience database

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    Strong-motion earthquakes frequently occur throughout the Pacific Basin, where power plants or industrial facilities are included in the affected areas. By studying the performance of these earthquake-affected (or database) facilities, a large inventory of various types of equipment installations can be compiled that have experienced substantial seismic motion. The primary purposes of the seismic experience database are summarized as follows: to determine the most common sources of seismic damage, or adverse effects, on equipment installations typical of industrial facilities; to determine the thresholds of seismic motion corresponding to various types of seismic damage; to determine the general performance of equipment during earthquakes, regardless of the levels of seismic motion; to determine minimum standards in equipment construction and installation, based on past experience, to assure the ability to withstand anticipated seismic loads. To summarize, the primary assumption in compiling an experience database is that the actual seismic hazard to industrial installations is best demonstrated by the performance of similar installations in past earthquakes

  11. Earthquake design for controlled structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikos G. Pnevmatikos

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available An alternative design philosophy, for structures equipped with control devices, capable to resist an expected earthquake while remaining in the elastic range, is described. The idea is that a portion of the earthquake loading is under¬taken by the control system and the remaining by the structure which is designed to resist elastically. The earthquake forces assuming elastic behavior (elastic forces and elastoplastic behavior (design forces are first calculated ac¬cording to the codes. The required control forces are calculated as the difference from elastic to design forces. The maximum value of capacity of control devices is then compared to the required control force. If the capacity of the control devices is larger than the required control force then the control devices are accepted and installed in the structure and the structure is designed according to the design forces. If the capacity is smaller than the required control force then a scale factor, α, reducing the elastic forces to new design forces is calculated. The structure is redesigned and devices are installed. The proposed procedure ensures that the structure behaves elastically (without damage for the expected earthquake at no additional cost, excluding that of buying and installing the control devices.

  12. Using Smartphones to Detect Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Q.; Allen, R. M.

    2012-12-01

    We are using the accelerometers in smartphones to record earthquakes. In the future, these smartphones may work as a supplement network to the current traditional network for scientific research and real-time applications. Given the potential number of smartphones, and small separation of sensors, this new type of seismic dataset has significant potential provides that the signal can be separated from the noise. We developed an application for android phones to record the acceleration in real time. These records can be saved on the local phone or transmitted back to a server in real time. The accelerometers in the phones were evaluated by comparing performance with a high quality accelerometer while located on controlled shake tables for a variety of tests. The results show that the accelerometer in the smartphone can reproduce the characteristic of the shaking very well, even the phone left freely on the shake table. The nature of these datasets is also quite different from traditional networks due to the fact that smartphones are moving around with their owners. Therefore, we must distinguish earthquake signals from other daily use. In addition to the shake table tests that accumulated earthquake records, we also recorded different human activities such as running, walking, driving etc. An artificial neural network based approach was developed to distinguish these different records. It shows a 99.7% successful rate of distinguishing earthquakes from the other typical human activities in our database. We are now at the stage ready to develop the basic infrastructure for a smartphone seismic network.

  13. Explanation of earthquake response spectra

    OpenAIRE

    Douglas, John

    2017-01-01

    This is a set of five slides explaining how earthquake response spectra are derived from strong-motion records and simple models of structures and their purpose within seismic design and assessment. It dates from about 2002 and I have used it in various introductory lectures on engineering seismology.

  14. International migration and the gender

    OpenAIRE

    Koropecká, Markéta

    2010-01-01

    My bachelor thesis explores the connection between international migration and gender. Gender, defined as a social, not a biological term, has a huge impact on the migration process. Statistics and expert studies that have been gender sensitive since 1970s demonstrate that women form half of the amount of the international migrants depending on the world region and representing a wide range of the kinds of international migration: family formation and reunification, labour migration, illegal ...

  15. The commercialization of migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrera-mangahas, M A

    1989-01-01

    International migration is not new to the Philippines. In the recent outflow of contract workers to the Middle East, there is a shift from individual and family initiated migrations to the more organized, highly commercial variety. While profit-taking intermediaries have played some role in the past, the increase in the number and influence of these intermediaries has altered the story of migration decision-making. In 1975, the signing of the bilateral labor agreement between the governments of Iran and the Philippines signalled the rising demand for Filipino contract workers. From 1970 to 1975, the number of Asian migrant workers in the Gulf countries rose from about 120,000 to 370,000. These figures rose dramatically to 3.3 million in 1985. The growing share of organized and commercialized migration has altered migration decision making. Primarily, intermediaries are able to broaden access to foreign job and high wage opportunities. Commercialization effectively raises the transaction costs for contract migration. Studies on recruitment costs and fees show that self-solicited foreign employment costs less than employment obtained through recruitment agents and intermediaries. The difference in the 2 prices is due, not only to overhead costs of intermediation, but more importantly to the rent exacted by agents from having job information and placement rights. In the Philippines in October 1987 the average placement fee was P8000, greatly exceeding the mandated maximum fee level of P5000. This average is understated because the computation includes the 17% who do not pay any fees. The widespread and popular view of recruitment intermediaries is negative, dominated by images of abuses and victims. Private intermediaries and the government bureaucracy need each other. Intermediaries need government; their consistent demand for incentives and protection is indicative. On the other hand, government expands its supervision of control of overseas employment via the

  16. Migration pathways of hypodermically injected technetium-99 m in dogs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovacs, F.M.; Mufraggi, N.; Garcia, A.; Pavia, J.; Giralt, I.; Piera, C.; Setoain, J.; Garcia, F.; Prandi, D.; Gotzens, V.

    2000-01-01

    Hypodermic injection of technetium-99 m ( 99 m TC-pertechnetate) at points of low electrical resistance give rise to rapid, longitudinal, and progressive diffusion of the radioactive tracer. We assessed the effect of cutaneous incisions that did not intersect the migration trajectory of 99 m Tc-pertechnetate and the re-establishment of pathways after the suture of incisions that intersected the migration trajectory. Linear and rapid migration of 99 m Tc-pertechnetate was not altered or prevented by incisions that did not intersect the migration pathway. Different patterns of 99 m Tc-pertechnetate spread were found when incisions intersected the radioactive pathways until restoration of the normal migration pathway observed in undamaged skin occurred. In all experiments in which migration of 99 m Tc-pertechnetate was observed, lavage of surgical wounds was followed by disappearance of the 99 m Tc-pertechnetate migration observed around the suture. Linear migration of the tracer was not observed when the incision was left uncovered, filled with petroleum jelly, or with a solid silicone sheet, but it was seen when non-sutured incisions were filled with transonic or silicone gel or covered with a solid silicone sheet parallel to the cutaneous plane. These data show that after a cutaneous incision that intersected the diffusion trajectory of the radioactive tracer, linear migration of 99 m Tc-pertechnetate hypodermically injected at points of low electrical resistance was restored before healing of the cutaneous incision and was independent of incisions made on the skin not overlying the radioactive pathway. A mechanism similar to that of capillary electrophoresis is suggested to explain the hypodermic diffusion of inert particles through specific and constant linear pathways. (orig.)

  17. New Empirical Earthquake Source‐Scaling Laws

    KAUST Repository

    Thingbaijam, Kiran Kumar S.

    2017-12-13

    We develop new empirical scaling laws for rupture width W, rupture length L, rupture area A, and average slip D, based on a large database of rupture models. The database incorporates recent earthquake source models in a wide magnitude range (M 5.4–9.2) and events of various faulting styles. We apply general orthogonal regression, instead of ordinary least-squares regression, to account for measurement errors of all variables and to obtain mutually self-consistent relationships. We observe that L grows more rapidly with M compared to W. The fault-aspect ratio (L/W) tends to increase with fault dip, which generally increases from reverse-faulting, to normal-faulting, to strike-slip events. At the same time, subduction-inter-face earthquakes have significantly higher W (hence a larger rupture area A) compared to other faulting regimes. For strike-slip events, the growth of W with M is strongly inhibited, whereas the scaling of L agrees with the L-model behavior (D correlated with L). However, at a regional scale for which seismogenic depth is essentially fixed, the scaling behavior corresponds to the W model (D not correlated with L). Self-similar scaling behavior with M − log A is observed to be consistent for all the cases, except for normal-faulting events. Interestingly, the ratio D/W (a proxy for average stress drop) tends to increase with M, except for shallow crustal reverse-faulting events, suggesting the possibility of scale-dependent stress drop. The observed variations in source-scaling properties for different faulting regimes can be interpreted in terms of geological and seismological factors. We find substantial differences between our new scaling relationships and those of previous studies. Therefore, our study provides critical updates on source-scaling relations needed in seismic–tsunami-hazard analysis and engineering applications.

  18. Youth Labor Migration in Nepal

    OpenAIRE

    Bossavie, Laurent; Denisova, Anastasiya

    2018-01-01

    This descriptive study investigates internal and external labor migration by Nepalese youth. External labor migration is separated into the flow to India, which is unregulated, and the flow to other countries, which typically takes the form of temporary contract migration to countries with bilateral labor agreements with Nepal (referred to in Nepal as foreign employment). The study finds t...

  19. Imaging and Understanding Foreshock and Aftershock Behavior Around the 2014 Iquique, Northern Chile, Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, H.; Meng, X.; Peng, Z.; Newman, A. V.; Hu, S.; Williamson, A.

    2014-12-01

    On April 1st, 2014, a moment magnitude (MW) 8.2 earthquake occurred offshore Iquique, Northern Chile. There were numerous smaller earthquakes preceding and following the mainshock, making it an ideal case to study the spatio-temporal relation among these events and their association with the mainshock. We applied a matched-filter technique to detect previously missing foreshocks and aftershocks of the 2014 Iquique earthquake. Using more than 900 template events recorded by 19 broadband seismic stations (network code CX) operated by the GEOFON Program of GFZ Potsdam, we found 4392 earthquakes between March 1st and April 3rd, 2014, including more than 30 earthquakes with magnitude larger than 4 that were previously missed in the catalog from the Chile National Seismological Center. Additionally, we found numerous small earthquakes with magnitudes between 1 and 2 preceding the largest foreshock, an MW 6.7 event occurring on March 16th, approximately 2 weeks before the Iquique mainshock. We observed that the foreshocks migrated northward at a speed of approximately 6 km/day. Using a finite fault slip model of the mainshock determined from teleseismic waveform inversion (Hayes, 2014), we calculated the Coulomb stress changes in the nearby regions of the mainshock. We found that there was ~200% increase in seismicity in the areas with increased Coulomb stress. Our next step is to evaluate the Coulomb stress changes associated with earlier foreshocks and their roles in triggering later foreshocks, and possibly the mainshock. For this, we plan to create a fault model of the temporal evolution of the Coulomb behavior along the interface with time, assuming Wells and Coppersmith (1994) type fault parameters. These results will be compared with double-difference relocations (using HypoDD), presenting a more accurate understanding of the spatial-temporal evolution of foreshocks and aftershocks of the 2014 Iquique earthquake.

  20. Musei del migration heritage / Migration heritage museums

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrizia Dragoni

    2015-01-01

    Since the second half of the 1960s of the 20th century, a profound cultural innovation was accompanied to the radical change in the social, political and economic climate. The anthropological notion of culture as opposed to idealistic vision, the unusual and strong interest in material culture, the enunciation of the concept of cultural property by the Franceschini Commission, the luck of the Public History bring a change of the disciplinary statutes of historical sciences, which begin to attend to social history, focusing on the spontaneous sources of information and initiating experiences of oral history. To all this a remarkable transformation of the themes and of the social function of museums is added. This paper illustrates, in relation to this more general context, the foundation and the dissemination of museums dedicated to the history of migration in Italy and in the world, enunciates their possible social utility for the integration of present migrants in Italy and illustrates, by way of example, the museum recently opened in Recanati.

  1. Study on evaluating method for earthquake resisting performance of steel piers; Kosei kyokyaku no taishinsei ni kansuru kenkyu kaihatsu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Isoe, A.; Hashimoto, Y.; Morimoto, C.; Sakoda, H.; Ishige, T.; Yoshikawa, T.; Kishida, K. [Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd., Kobe (Japan)

    1998-12-20

    After the shock of Hyogoken Nanbu Earthquake in 1995, protection against level 2 earthquake becomes important subject for civil structures. Subsequently plastic design methods for steel piers have been studied and rapidly introduced. The authors developed a method to evaluate the earthquake resisting performance of a steel pier with a single mass model. This model is useful for design because of its simplicity but on the other hand it can not consider the effects of piers` interaction in space. To include this effect in an analysis a simple 3 dimensional calculation model of box-column pier is developed. (author)

  2. Metropolitan migration and population growth in selected developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to estimate the components of metropolitan population growth in selected developing countries during 1960-1970 period. The study examines population growth in 26 cities: 5 are in Africa, 8 in Asia, and 13 in Latin America, using data from national census publications. These cities in general are the political capitals of their countries, but some additional large cities were selected in Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa. All cities, at the beginning of the 1960-1970 decade had over 500,000 population; Accra, the only exception, reached this population level during the 1960s. Some cities had over 4 million residents in 1970. Net migration contributed about 37% to total metropolitan population growth; the remainder of the growth is attributable to natural increase. Migration has a much stronger impact on metropolitan growth than suggested by the above figure: 1) Several metropolitan areas, for various reasons, are unlikely to receive many migrants; without those cities, the share of metropolitan growth from net migration is 44%. 2) Estimates of the natural increase of migrants after their arrival in the metropolitan areas, when added to migration itself, changes the total contribution of migration to 49% in some metropolitan areas. 3) Even where net migration contributes a smaller proportion to metropolitan growth than natural increase, the rates of net migration are generally high and should be viewed in the context of rapid metropolitan population growth from natural increase alone. Finally, the paper also compares the components of metropolitan growth with the components of growth in the remaining urban areas. The results show that the metropolitan areas, in general, grow faster than the remaining urban areas, and that this more rapid growth is mostly due to a higher rate of net migration. Given the significance of migration for metropolitan growth, further investigations of the effects of these migration streams, particularly with

  3. Religion, migration og integration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borup, Jørn

    2010-01-01

    Sammenhængen mellem religion og integration har de sidste år været genstand for debat. Artiklen kommer ind på begreber og sammenhænge relateret til området (migration, diaspora, assimilation, etnicitet, kultur) og ser på religionens mulige rolle som negativ eller positiv ressource i integrationss......Sammenhængen mellem religion og integration har de sidste år været genstand for debat. Artiklen kommer ind på begreber og sammenhænge relateret til området (migration, diaspora, assimilation, etnicitet, kultur) og ser på religionens mulige rolle som negativ eller positiv ressource i...

  4. Earthquake Early Warning: A Prospective User's Perspective (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishenko, S. P.; Savage, W. U.; Johnson, T.

    2009-12-01

    With more than 25 million people at risk from high hazard faults in California alone, Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) presents a promising public safety and emergency response tool. EEW represents the real-time end of an earthquake information spectrum which also includes near real-time notifications of earthquake location, magnitude, and shaking levels; as well as geographic information system (GIS)-based products for compiling and visually displaying processed earthquake data such as ShakeMap and ShakeCast. Improvements to and increased multi-national implementation of EEW have stimulated interest in how such information products could be used in the future. Lifeline organizations, consisting of utilities and transportation systems, can use both onsite and regional EEW information as part of their risk management and public safety programs. Regional EEW information can provide improved situational awareness to system operators before automatic system protection devices activate, and allow trained personnel to take precautionary measures. On-site EEW is used for earthquake-actuated automatic gas shutoff valves, triggered garage door openers at fire stations, system controls, etc. While there is no public policy framework for preemptive, precautionary electricity or gas service shutdowns by utilities in the United States, gas shut-off devices are being required at the building owner level by some local governments. In the transportation sector, high-speed rail systems have already demonstrated the ‘proof of concept’ for EEW in several countries, and more EEW systems are being installed. Recently the Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) began collaborating with the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) and others to assess the potential benefits of EEW technology to mass transit operations and emergency response in the San Francisco Bay region. A key issue in this assessment is that significant earthquakes are likely to occur close to or within the BART

  5. Grain boundary migration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimitrov, O.

    1975-01-01

    Well-established aspects of grain-boundary migration are first briefly reviewed (influences of driving force, temperature, orientation and foreign atoms). Recent developments of the experimental methods and results are then examined, by considering the various driving of resistive forces acting on grain boundaries. Finally, the evolution in the theoretical models of grain-boundary motion is described, on the one hand for ideally pure metals and, on the other hand, in the presence of solute impurity atoms [fr

  6. Ventriculoperitoneal Shunt Migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin P Puller

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available History of present illness: A 40-year-old female presented to our ED with left upper abdominal pain and flank pain. The pain had begun suddenly 2 hours prior when she was reaching into a freezer to get a bag of frozen vegetables. She described the pain as sharp, constant, severe, and worse with movements and breathing. The pain radiated to the left shoulder. On review of systems, the patient had mild dyspnea and nausea. She denied fever, chills, headache, vision changes, vomiting, or urinary symptoms. Her medical history was notable for obstructive sleep apnea, gastroesophageal reflux disease, arthritis, fibromyalgia, depression, obesity, and idiopathic intracranial hypertension. For the latter, she had a VP (ventriculoperitoneal shunt placed 14 years prior to this visit. She had a history of 2 shunt revisions, the most recent 30 days before this ED visit. Significant findings: An immediate post-op abdominal x-ray performed after the patient’s VP shunt revision 30 days prior to this ED visit reveals the VP shunt tip in the mid abdomen. A CT of the abdomen performed on the day of the ED visit reveals the VP shunt tip interposed between the spleen and the diaphragm. Discussion: VP shunts have been reported to migrate to varied locations in the thorax and abdomen. Incidence of abdominal complications of VP shunt placement ranges from 10%-30%, and can include pseudocyst formation, migration, peritonitis, CSF ascites, infection, and viscus perforation. Incidence of distal shunt migration is reported as 10%, and most previously reported cases occurred in pediatric patients.1 A recent retrospective review cited BMI greater than thirty and previous shunt procedure as risk factors for distal shunt migration.2 The patient in the case presented had a BMI of 59 and 3 previous shunt procedures.

  7. Conservation physiology of animal migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lennox, Robert J.; Chapman, Jacqueline M.; Souliere, Christopher M.; Tudorache, Christian; Wikelski, Martin; Metcalfe, Julian D.; Cooke, Steven J.

    2016-01-01

    Migration is a widespread phenomenon among many taxa. This complex behaviour enables animals to exploit many temporally productive and spatially discrete habitats to accrue various fitness benefits (e.g. growth, reproduction, predator avoidance). Human activities and global environmental change represent potential threats to migrating animals (from individuals to species), and research is underway to understand mechanisms that control migration and how migration responds to modern challenges. Focusing on behavioural and physiological aspects of migration can help to provide better understanding, management and conservation of migratory populations. Here, we highlight different physiological, behavioural and biomechanical aspects of animal migration that will help us to understand how migratory animals interact with current and future anthropogenic threats. We are in the early stages of a changing planet, and our understanding of how physiology is linked to the persistence of migratory animals is still developing; therefore, we regard the following questions as being central to the conservation physiology of animal migrations. Will climate change influence the energetic costs of migration? Will shifting temperatures change the annual clocks of migrating animals? Will anthropogenic influences have an effect on orientation during migration? Will increased anthropogenic alteration of migration stopover sites/migration corridors affect the stress physiology of migrating animals? Can physiological knowledge be used to identify strategies for facilitating the movement of animals? Our synthesis reveals that given the inherent challenges of migration, additional stressors derived from altered environments (e.g. climate change, physical habitat alteration, light pollution) or interaction with human infrastructure (e.g. wind or hydrokinetic turbines, dams) or activities (e.g. fisheries) could lead to long-term changes to migratory phenotypes. However, uncertainty remains

  8. Many Faces of Migrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milica Antić Gaber

    2013-12-01

    We believe that in the present thematic issue we have succeeded in capturing an important part of the modern European research dynamic in the field of migration. In addition to well-known scholars in this field several young authors at the beginning their research careers have been shortlisted for the publication. We are glad of their success as it bodes a vibrancy of this research area in the future. At the same time, we were pleased to receive responses to the invitation from representatives of so many disciplines, and that the number of papers received significantly exceeded the maximum volume of the journal. Recognising and understanding of the many faces of migration are important steps towards the comprehensive knowledge needed to successfully meet the challenges of migration issues today and even more so in the future. It is therefore of utmost importance that researchers find ways of transferring their academic knowledge into practice – to all levels of education, the media, the wider public and, of course, the decision makers in local, national and international institutions. The call also applies to all authors in this issue of the journal.

  9. Rapid Response Fault Drilling Past, Present, and Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Demian M. Saffer

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available New information about large earthquakes can be acquired by drilling into the fault zone quickly following a large seismic event. Specifically, we can learn about the levels of friction and strength of the fault which determine the dynamic rupture, monitor the healing process of the fault, record the stress changes that trigger aftershocks and capture important physical and chemical properties of the fault that control the rupture process. These scientific and associated technical issues were the focus of a three-day workshop on Rapid Response Fault Drilling: Past, Present, and Future, sponsored by the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP and the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC. The meeting drewtogether forty-four scientists representing ten countries in Tokyo, Japan during November 2008. The group discussed the scientific problems and how they could be addressed through rapid response drilling. Focused talks presented previous work on drilling after large earthquakes and in fault zones in general, as well as the state of the art of experimental techniques and measurement strategies. Detailed discussion weighed the tradeoffs between rapid drilling andthe ability to satisfy a diverse range of scientific objectives. Plausible drilling sites and scenarios were evaluated. This is a shortened summary of the workshop report that discusses key scientific questions, measurement strategies, and recommendations. This report can provide a starting point for quickly mobilizing a drilling program following future large earthquakes. The full report can be seen at http://www.pmc.ucsc.edu/~rapid/.

  10. Space-time behavior of continental intraplate earthquakes and implications for hazard assessment in China and the Central U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian; Luo, Gang; Wang, Hui

    2014-05-01

    Earthquakes in midcontinents and those at plate boundaries behave quite differently in space and time, owing to the geometry of faults and the rate at which they are loaded. Faults at plate boundaries are loaded at constant rates by steady relative plate motion. Consequently, earthquakes concentrate along the plate boundary faults, and show quasi-periodic occurrences, although the actual temporal patterns are often complicated. However, in midcontinents, the tectonic loading is shared by a complex system of interacting faults spread over a large region, such that a large earthquake on one fault could increase the loading rates on remote faults in the system. Because the low tectonic loading rate is shared by many faults in midcontinents, individual faults may remain dormant for a long time and then become active for a short period. The resulting earthquakes are therefore episodic and spatially migrating. These effects can be seen in many areas, with a prime example being a 2000-year record from North China, which shows migration of large earthquakes between fault systems spread over a large region such that no large earthquakes rupture the same fault segment twice. Because seismic activity within mid-continents is usually much lower than that along plate boundary zones, even small earthquakes can cause widespread concerns, especially when these events occur in the source regions of previous large earthquakes. However, these small earthquakes may be aftershocks that continue for decades or even longer, because aftershock sequences often last much longer in midcontinents where tectonic loading is slow, than at plate boundaries. The recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China is likely aftershocks of the 1976 M7.8 Tangshan earthquake. Similarly, current seismicity in the New Madrid seismic zone in central U.S. appears to be aftershocks of a cluster of M ~7.0 events in 1811-1812. These large events and similar events in the past millennium release strain

  11. Migration Process Evolution in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen Tudorache

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available The migration phenomenon has always existed, fluctuating by the historic context, the economic, political, social and demographic disparities between the Central and East European countries and the EU Member States, the interdependencies between the origin and receiving countries and the European integration process evolutions. In the European Union, an integrated and inclusive approach of the migration issue is necessary. But a common policy on migration rests an ambitious objective. A common approach of the economic migration management and the harmonization of the migration policies of the Member States represented a challenge for the European Union and will become urgent in the future, especially due to the demographic ageing.

  12. Migrations in Slovenian geography textbooks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurij Senegačnik

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In Slovenia, the migrations are treated in almost all geographical textbooks for different levels of education. In the textbooks for the elementary school from the sixth to ninth grade, students acquire knowledge of the migrations by the inductive approach. Difficulty level of treatment and quantity of information are increasing by the age level. In the grammar school program a trail of gaining knowledge on migration is deductive. Most attention is dedicated to migrations in general geography textbooks. The textbooks for vocational and technical school programs deal with migrations to a lesser extent and with different approaches.

  13. A Method for Estimation of Death Tolls in Disastrous Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pai, C.; Tien, Y.; Teng, T.

    2004-12-01

    Fatality tolls caused by the disastrous earthquake are the one of the most important items among the earthquake damage and losses. If we can precisely estimate the potential tolls and distribution of fatality in individual districts as soon as the earthquake occurrences, it not only make emergency programs and disaster management more effective but also supply critical information to plan and manage the disaster and the allotments of disaster rescue manpower and medicine resources in a timely manner. In this study, we intend to reach the estimation of death tolls caused by the Chi-Chi earthquake in individual districts based on the Attributive Database of Victims, population data, digital maps and Geographic Information Systems. In general, there were involved many factors including the characteristics of ground motions, geological conditions, types and usage habits of buildings, distribution of population and social-economic situations etc., all are related to the damage and losses induced by the disastrous earthquake. The density of seismic stations in Taiwan is the greatest in the world at present. In the meantime, it is easy to get complete seismic data by earthquake rapid-reporting systems from the Central Weather Bureau: mostly within about a minute or less after the earthquake happened. Therefore, it becomes possible to estimate death tolls caused by the earthquake in Taiwan based on the preliminary information. Firstly, we form the arithmetic mean of the three components of the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) to give the PGA Index for each individual seismic station, according to the mainshock data of the Chi-Chi earthquake. To supply the distribution of Iso-seismic Intensity Contours in any districts and resolve the problems for which there are no seismic station within partial districts through the PGA Index and geographical coordinates in individual seismic station, the Kriging Interpolation Method and the GIS software, The population density depends on

  14. Social effects of migration in receiving countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohndorf, W

    1989-06-01

    This paper examines the impact of post-1945 migration into Western, Middle, and Northern Europe from Southern Europe, Turkey, and Northern Africa, and migration to the traditional immigration countries by Asian and Latin American immigrants, on the social structures of receiving countries. Between 1955 and 1974, 1) traditional migration to the US and Australia became less important for European countries while traditional receiving countries accepted many immigrants from developing countries; and 2) rapid economic revival in Western and Northern Europe caused a considerable labor shortage which was filled by migrant workers especially from Southern Europe, Turkey, and Northern Africa, who stayed only until they reached their economic goals. Since 1974, job vacancies have declined and unemployment has soared. This employment crisis caused some migrants 1) to return to their countries of origin, 2) to bring the rest of their families to the receiving country, or 3) to lengthen their stay considerably. The number of refugees has also significantly increased since the mid-970s, as has the number of illegal migrants. After the mid-1970s, Europe began to experience integration problems. The different aspects of the impact of migration on social structures include 1) improvement of the housing situation for foreigners, 2) teaching migrants the language of the receiving country, 3) solving the unemployment problem of unskilled migrants, 4) improvement of educational and vocational qualifications of 2nd generation migrants, 5) development of programs to help unemployed wives of migrants to learn the language and meet indigenous women, 6) encouraging migrants to maintain their cultural identity and assisting them with reintegration if they return to their original country, 7) coping with the problems of refugees, and 8) solving the problems of illegal migration. Almost all receiving countries now severely restrict further immigration. [Those policies should result in

  15. Napa earthquake: An earthquake in a highly connected world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Steed, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.

    2014-12-01

    The Napa earthquake recently occurred close to Silicon Valley. This makes it a good candidate to study what social networks, wearable objects and website traffic analysis (flashsourcing) can tell us about the way eyewitnesses react to ground shaking. In the first part, we compare the ratio of people publishing tweets and with the ratio of people visiting EMSC (European Mediterranean Seismological Centre) real time information website in the first minutes following the earthquake occurrence to the results published by Jawbone, which show that the proportion of people waking up depends (naturally) on the epicentral distance. The key question to evaluate is whether the proportions of inhabitants tweeting or visiting the EMSC website are similar to the proportion of people waking up as shown by the Jawbone data. If so, this supports the premise that all methods provide a reliable image of the relative ratio of people waking up. The second part of the study focuses on the reaction time for both Twitter and EMSC website access. We show, similarly to what was demonstrated for the Mineral, Virginia, earthquake (Bossu et al., 2014), that hit times on the EMSC website follow the propagation of the P waves and that 2 minutes of website traffic is sufficient to determine the epicentral location of an earthquake on the other side of the Atlantic. We also compare with the publication time of messages on Twitter. Finally, we check whether the number of tweets and the number of visitors relative to the number of inhabitants is correlated to the local level of shaking. Together these results will tell us whether the reaction of eyewitnesses to ground shaking as observed through Twitter and the EMSC website analysis is tool specific (i.e. specific to Twitter or EMSC website) or whether they do reflect people's actual reactions.

  16. Hematopoietic stem cell migration and proliferation after Partial body irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murata, Takashi; Utsumi, Makoto; Hotta, Tomomitsu; Yamada, Hideo

    1983-01-01

    Stem cell migration in hematopoietic recovery after partial body irradiation was investigated with special emphasis on the comparative roles of the bone marrow and the spleen. The number of CFU-S in circulation declined rapidly and reached zero within a day after irradiation, thereafter it increased gradually. This finding suggests the presence of two different phases of stem cell migration. One is a rapid migrating phase in which stem cells are released rapidly within a day after irradiation, and the other is a slow migrating phase. The result of split doses of local body irradiation experiments implicated a role for the spleen distinct from that of the bone marrow in the preferential distribution of stem cells early after irradiation. The cell kinetic study showed that the proliferation of CFU-S occurred actively in irradiated bone marrow and the spleens as compared to that in unirradiated control. But on Day 7 and on Day 10 after irradiation, the proliferation of CFU-S in shielded bone marrow did not occur as actively as those in irradiated areas. The results of our present studies suggest that the spleen is not only the storage pools of migrating stem cells but also the main site of active proliferation of CFU-S in the early period of hematopoietic regeneration. (author)

  17. Spectral characteristics of natural and artificial earthquakes in the Lop Nor test site, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korrat, I.M.; Gharib, A.A.; Abou Elenean, K.A.; Hussein, H.M.; ElGabry, M.N.

    2007-12-01

    A seismic discriminants based on the spectral seismogram and spectral magnitude techniques has been tested to discriminate between three events; a nuclear explosion which took place in Lop Nor, China with m b 6.1 and two earthquakes from the closest area with m b 5.5 and 5.3, respectively. The spectral seismogram of the three events shows that the frequency content of the nuclear explosion differs from that of the earthquakes where the P-wave is rich with high frequency content in the nuclear explosion than the corresponding earthquakes. It is also observed that the energy decays very rapidly for the nuclear explosion than that for the earthquakes. Furthermore, the spectral magnitudes reveal significant differences in the spectra between the nuclear explosion and the two earthquakes. These observed differences appear to be quite enough to provide a reliable discriminant. The estimated stress drop from the magnitude spectra indicates a higher stress drop of the nuclear explosion relative to the earthquakes of the same tectonic region. (author)

  18. Initiation process of earthquakes and its implications for seismic hazard reduction strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanamori, H

    1996-04-30

    For the average citizen and the public, "earthquake prediction" means "short-term prediction," a prediction of a specific earthquake on a relatively short time scale. Such prediction must specify the time, place, and magnitude of the earthquake in question with sufficiently high reliability. For this type of prediction, one must rely on some short-term precursors. Examinations of strain changes just before large earthquakes suggest that consistent detection of such precursory strain changes cannot be expected. Other precursory phenomena such as foreshocks and nonseismological anomalies do not occur consistently either. Thus, reliable short-term prediction would be very difficult. Although short-term predictions with large uncertainties could be useful for some areas if their social and economic environments can tolerate false alarms, such predictions would be impractical for most modern industrialized cities. A strategy for effective seismic hazard reduction is to take full advantage of the recent technical advancements in seismology, computers, and communication. In highly industrialized communities, rapid earthquake information is critically important for emergency services agencies, utilities, communications, financial companies, and media to make quick reports and damage estimates and to determine where emergency response is most needed. Long-term forecast, or prognosis, of earthquakes is important for development of realistic building codes, retrofitting existing structures, and land-use planning, but the distinction between short-term and long-term predictions needs to be clearly communicated to the public to avoid misunderstanding.

  19. Fluid flows due to earthquakes with reference to Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davies, J.B.

    1993-01-01

    Yucca Mountain geohydrology is dominated by a deep water table in volcanic tuffa beds which are cut by numerous faults. Certain zones in these tuffas and most of the fault apertures are filled with a fine-grained calcitic cement. Earthquakes have occured in this region with the most recent being of magnitude 5.6 and at a distance of about 20 km. Earthquakes in western U.S.A. have been observed to cause fluid flows through and out of the crust of the Earth. These flows are concentrated along the faults with normal faulting producing the largest flows. An earthquake produces rapid pressure changes at and below the ground surface, thereby forcing flows of gas, water, slurries and dissolved salts. In order to examine the properties of flows produced by earthquakes, we simulate the phenomena using computer-based modeling. We investigate the effects of adults and high permeability zones on the pattern of flows induced by the earthquake. We demonstrate that faults act as conduits to the surface and that the higher the permeability of a zone, the more the flows will concentrate there. Numerical estimates of flow rates from these simulations compare favorably with data from observed flows due to earthquakes. Simple volumetric arguments demonstrate the ease with which fluids from the deep water table can reach the surface along fault conduits

  20. Countermeasures to earthquakes in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Kazuhide

    1979-01-01

    The contribution of atomic energy to mankind is unmeasured, but the danger of radioactivity is a special thing. Therefore in the design of nuclear power plants, the safety has been regarded as important, and in Japan where earthquakes occur frequently, the countermeasures to earthquakes have been incorporated in the examination of safety naturally. The radioactive substances handled in nuclear power stations and spent fuel reprocessing plants are briefly explained. The occurrence of earthquakes cannot be predicted effectively, and the disaster due to earthquakes is apt to be remarkably large. In nuclear plants, the prevention of damage in the facilities and the maintenance of the functions are required at the time of earthquakes. Regarding the location of nuclear plants, the history of earthquakes, the possible magnitude of earthquakes, the properties of ground and the position of nuclear plants should be examined. After the place of installation has been decided, the earthquake used for design is selected, evaluating live faults and determining the standard earthquakes. As the fundamentals of aseismatic design, the classification according to importance, the earthquakes for design corresponding to the classes of importance, the combination of loads and allowable stress are explained. (Kako, I.)

  1. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  2. Landslide-driven drainage divide migration and quantifying progress toward topographic steady state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahlquist, M. P.; West, A. J.; Li, G.

    2017-12-01

    Drainage divide migration is a critical process in landscape evolution. It reorganizes river basins, redistributing fluvial erosive energy to facilitate mass balance, and contributes to feedbacks between tectonics, erosion, and climate. However, it leaves little straightforward evidence in the geologic or geomorphic record, and has been subject to minimal field study, hampering understanding its role in landscape evolution. Landslides link river channels, hillslopes, and ridges in steep landscapes, and thus play a central role in divide migration. In this study, we examine landslides triggered by three events: the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake in central China, the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake in Nepal, and the 2009 Typhoon Morakot in southern Taiwan, seeking new insight into the controls on divide migration. Of the 100,000 landslides triggered, we mapped 367 which caused a divide to migrate, resulting in a total exchange of about 2 km2 between basins. We use this database of divide migrations to explore relationships between the geometry of rivers and the exchange of drainage area, comparing metrics which have been proposed as indicators of divide stability across mobile divides. We find that upstream-averaged local relief and upstream-averaged channel gradient predict the We propose a new metric to describe divide mobility and the overall influence of a reorganizing event on a landscape, using it to estimate the impact of events similar to the 2009 Typhoon Morakot on the progress of Taiwan's Central Range toward topographic steady state.

  3. Evaluation of earthquake vibration on aseismic design of nuclear power plant judging from recent earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dan, Kazuo

    2006-01-01

    The Regulatory Guide for Aseismic Design of Nuclear Reactor Facilities was revised on 19 th September, 2006. Six factors for evaluation of earthquake vibration are considered on the basis of the recent earthquakes. They are 1) evaluation of earthquake vibration by method using fault model, 2) investigation and approval of active fault, 3) direct hit earthquake, 4) assumption of the short active fault as the hypocentral fault, 5) locality of the earthquake and the earthquake vibration and 6) remaining risk. A guiding principle of revision required new evaluation method of earthquake vibration using fault model, and evaluation of probability of earthquake vibration. The remaining risk means the facilities and people get into danger when stronger earthquake than the design occurred, accordingly, the scattering has to be considered at evaluation of earthquake vibration. The earthquake belt of Hyogo-Nanbu earthquake and strong vibration pulse in 1995, relation between length of surface earthquake fault and hypocentral fault, and distribution of seismic intensity of off Kushiro in 1993 are shown. (S.Y.)

  4. Migration, Business Formation, and the Informal Economy in Urban Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riosmena, Fernando

    2013-01-01

    Although the informal economy has grown rapidly in several developing nations, and migration and informality may be related to similar types of credit constraints and market failures, previous research has not systematically attempted to identify if migrant households are more likely to start informal and formal businesses alike and if this association varies across local contexts. We examine the relationship between prior U.S. migration and the creation of both formal and informal businesses in urban Mexico using several criteria to indirectly assess sector location. We use data from 56 communities from the Mexican Migration Project to estimate multilevel survival and nonmultilevel competing risk models predicting the likelihood of informal, formal, and no business formation. The recent return migration of the household head is strongly associated with informal business creation, particularly in economically dynamic areas. On the other hand, migrants are only marginally more likely to start formal businesses in highly economically dynamic sending areas. PMID:23721676

  5. Stem cell migration after irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nothdurft, W.; Fliedner, T.M.

    1979-01-01

    The survival rate of irradiated rodents could be significantly improved by shielding only the small parts of hemopoietic tissues during the course of irradiation. The populations of circulating stem cells in adult organisms are considered to be of some importance for the homeostasis between the many sites of blood cell formation and for the necessary flexibility of hemopoietic response in the face of fluctuating demands. Pluripotent stem cells are migrating through peripheral blood as has been shown for several mammalian species. Under steady state conditions, the exchange of stem cells between the different sites of blood cell formation appears to be restricted. Their presence in blood and the fact that they are in balance with the extravascular stem cell pool may well be of significance for the surveilance of the integrity of local stem cell populations. Any decrease of stem cell population in blood below a critical size results in the rapid immigration of circulating stem cells in order to restore local stem cell pool size. Blood stem cells are involved in the regeneration after whole-body irradiation if the stem cell population in bone marrows is reduced to less than 10% of the normal state. In the animals subjected to partial-body irradiation, the circulating stem cells appear to be the only source for the repopulation of the heavily irradiated, aplastic sites of hemopoietic organs. (Yamashita, S.)

  6. Extraction Method for Earthquake-Collapsed Building Information Based on High-Resolution Remote Sensing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Peng; Wu, Jian; Liu, Yaolin; Wang, Jing

    2014-01-01

    At present, the extraction of earthquake disaster information from remote sensing data relies on visual interpretation. However, this technique cannot effectively and quickly obtain precise and efficient information for earthquake relief and emergency management. Collapsed buildings in the town of Zipingpu after the Wenchuan earthquake were used as a case study to validate two kinds of rapid extraction methods for earthquake-collapsed building information based on pixel-oriented and object-oriented theories. The pixel-oriented method is based on multi-layer regional segments that embody the core layers and segments of the object-oriented method. The key idea is to mask layer by layer all image information, including that on the collapsed buildings. Compared with traditional techniques, the pixel-oriented method is innovative because it allows considerably rapid computer processing. As for the object-oriented method, a multi-scale segment algorithm was applied to build a three-layer hierarchy. By analyzing the spectrum, texture, shape, location, and context of individual object classes in different layers, the fuzzy determined rule system was established for the extraction of earthquake-collapsed building information. We compared the two sets of results using three variables: precision assessment, visual effect, and principle. Both methods can extract earthquake-collapsed building information quickly and accurately. The object-oriented method successfully overcomes the pepper salt noise caused by the spectral diversity of high-resolution remote sensing data and solves the problem of same object, different spectrums and that of same spectrum, different objects. With an overall accuracy of 90.38%, the method achieves more scientific and accurate results compared with the pixel-oriented method (76.84%). The object-oriented image analysis method can be extensively applied in the extraction of earthquake disaster information based on high-resolution remote sensing

  7. THE MIGRATION SITUATION IN THE CAPITAL MEGAPOLIS: PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. N. Novoselova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is dedicated to one of the most pressing problems of our time — migration. Depopulation, population ageing, falling birth rate among the indigenous population creates conditions when migration becomes one of the most important sources of population growth in developed countries. Despite the fact that the problems depopulation can’t be solved only through migration, it is impossible to manage the situation without migrants, otherwise population will decline even more rapidly. The article analyzes particularities of migration in Russia, especially focusing on migration in Moscow. The main emphasis is made on the problems of interaction between migrants and the host community, or more precisely on the attitudes towards migrants among Muscovites. There is a high level of anti-immigrant and xenophobic attitudes among Moscow’s residents, which points to the necessity to overcome migrantophobia, promote tolerance, establish cultural dialogue between migrants and the indigenous population of the region. Negative consequences of xenophobia are analyzed, which pose a threat to Russian stability and security. A lot of attention is paid to such feature of contemporary migration as the increasing proportion of women among migrants — the feminization of migration, problems and prospects that follow it. In conclusions, the author relies on the existing statistical data, as well as the results of sociological research, conducted both on the national and regional levels. 

  8. Renormalization group theory of earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Saleur

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available We study theoretically the physical origin of the proposed discrete scale invariance of earthquake processes, at the origin of the universal log-periodic corrections to scaling, recently discovered in regional seismic activity (Sornette and Sammis (1995. The discrete scaling symmetries which may be present at smaller scales are shown to be robust on a global scale with respect to disorder. Furthermore, a single complex exponent is sufficient in practice to capture the essential properties of the leading correction to scaling, whose real part may be renormalized by disorder, and thus be specific to the system. We then propose a new mechanism for discrete scale invariance, based on the interplay between dynamics and disorder. The existence of non-linear corrections to the renormalization group flow implies that an earthquake is not an isolated 'critical point', but is accompanied by an embedded set of 'critical points', its foreshocks and any subsequent shocks for which it may be a foreshock.

  9. The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Aitaro; Nakamura, Kouji; Hiyama, Yohei

    2016-01-01

    Beginning in April 2016, a series of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes with associated strong aftershocks struck the Kumamoto area of Kyushu, SW Japan. An M j 7.3 mainshock occurred on 16 April 2016, close to the epicenter of an M j 6.5 foreshock that occurred about 28 hours earlier. The intense seismicity released the accumulated elastic energy by right-lateral strike slip, mainly along two known, active faults. The mainshock rupture propagated along multiple fault segments with different geometries. The faulting style is reasonably consistent with regional deformation observed on geologic timescales and with the stress field estimated from seismic observations. One striking feature of this sequence is intense seismic activity, including a dynamically triggered earthquake in the Oita region. Following the mainshock rupture, postseismic deformation has been observed, as well as expansion of the seismicity front toward the southwest and northwest.

  10. Earthquake lights and rupture processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. V. Losseva

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A physical model of earthquake lights is proposed. It is suggested that the magnetic diffusion from the electric and magnetic fields source region is a dominant process, explaining rather high localization of the light flashes. A 3D numerical code allowing to take into account the arbitrary distribution of currents caused by ground motion, conductivity in the ground and at its surface, including the existence of sea water above the epicenter or (and near the ruptured segments of the fault have been developed. Simulations for the 1995 Kobe earthquake were conducted taking into account the existence of sea water with realistic geometry of shores. The results do not contradict the eyewitness reports and scarce measurements of the electric and magnetic fields at large distances from the epicenter.

  11. The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    KATO, Aitaro; NAKAMURA, Kouji; HIYAMA, Yohei

    2016-01-01

    Beginning in April 2016, a series of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes with associated strong aftershocks struck the Kumamoto area of Kyushu, SW Japan. An Mj 7.3 mainshock occurred on 16 April 2016, close to the epicenter of an Mj 6.5 foreshock that occurred about 28 hours earlier. The intense seismicity released the accumulated elastic energy by right-lateral strike slip, mainly along two known, active faults. The mainshock rupture propagated along multiple fault segments with different geometries. The faulting style is reasonably consistent with regional deformation observed on geologic timescales and with the stress field estimated from seismic observations. One striking feature of this sequence is intense seismic activity, including a dynamically triggered earthquake in the Oita region. Following the mainshock rupture, postseismic deformation has been observed, as well as expansion of the seismicity front toward the southwest and northwest. PMID:27725474

  12. Report on the 2010 Chilean earthquake and tsunami response

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2011-01-01

    In July 2010, in an effort to reduce future catastrophic natural disaster losses for California, the American Red Cross coordinated and sent a delegation of 20 multidisciplinary experts on earthquake response and recovery to Chile. The primary goal was to understand how the Chilean society and relevant organizations responded to the magnitude 8.8 Maule earthquake that struck the region on February 27, 2010, as well as how an application of these lessons could better prepare California communities, response partners and state emergency partners for a comparable situation. Similarities in building codes, socioeconomic conditions, and broad extent of the strong shaking make the Chilean earthquake a very close analog to the impact of future great earthquakes on California. To withstand and recover from natural and human-caused disasters, it is essential for citizens and communities to work together to anticipate threats, limit effects, and rapidly restore functionality after a crisis. The delegation was hosted by the Chilean Red Cross and received extensive briefings from both national and local Red Cross officials. During nine days in Chile, the delegation also met with officials at the national, regional, and local government levels. Technical briefings were received from the President’s Emergency Committee, emergency managers from ONEMI (comparable to FEMA), structural engineers, a seismologist, hospital administrators, firefighters, and the United Nations team in Chile. Cities visited include Santiago, Talca, Constitución, Concepción, Talcahuano, Tumbes, and Cauquenes. The American Red Cross Multidisciplinary Team consisted of subject matter experts, who carried out special investigations in five Teams on the (1) science and engineering findings, (2) medical services, (3) emergency services, (4) volunteer management, and (5) executive and management issues (see appendix A for a full list of participants and their titles and teams). While developing this

  13. Dim prospects for earthquake prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, Robert J.

    I was misquoted by C. Lomnitz's [1998] Forum letter (Eos, August 4, 1998, p. 373), which said: [I wonder whether Sasha Gusev [1998] actually believes that branding earthquake prediction a ‘proven nonscience’ [Geller, 1997a] is a paradigm for others to copy.”Readers are invited to verify for themselves that neither “proven nonscience” norv any similar phrase was used by Geller [1997a].

  14. The rupture process of the Manjil, Iran earthquake of 20 june 1990 and implications for intraplate strike-slip earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choy, G.L.; Zednik, J.

    1997-01-01

    of activity the aftershock zone expands and appears to cluster about the geomorphic and geologic features several tens of kilometres from the rupture zone. The activity is interpreted as a regional response to quasistatic stress migration along zones of tectonic weakness. The radiated energy of the main shock and the estimate of seismic moment yields an apparent stress of 20 bars. High apparent stress may be typical of strike slip earthquakes occurring in intracontinental environments undergoing continental collision.

  15. MIGRATION OF SEISMIC AND VOLCANIC ACTIVITY AS DISPLAY OF WAVE GEODYNAMIC PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander V. Vikulin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Publications about the earthquake foci migration have been reviewed. An important result of such studies is establishment of wave nature of seismic activity migration that is manifested by two types of rotational waves; such waves are responsible for interaction between earthquakes foci and propagate with different velocities. Waves determining long-range interaction of earthquake foci are classified as Type 1; their limiting velocities range from 1 to 10 cm/s. Waves determining short-range interaction of foreshocks and aftershocks of individual earthquakes are classified as Type 2; their velocities range from 1 to 10 km/s. According to the classification described in [Bykov, 2005], these two types of migration waves correspond to slow and fast tectonic waves. The most complete data on earthquakes (for a period over 4.1 million of years and volcanic eruptions (for 12 thousand years of the planet are consolidated in a unified systematic format and analyzed by methods developed by the authors. For the Pacific margin, Alpine-Himalayan belt and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, which are the three most active zones of the Earth, new patterns of spatial and temporal distribution of seismic and volcanic activity are revealed; they correspond to Type 1 of rotational waves. The wave nature of the migration of seismic and volcanic activity is confirmed. A new approach to solving problems of geodynamics is proposed with application of the data on migration of seismic and volcanic activity, which are consolidated in this study, in combination with data on velocities of movement of tectonic plate boundaries. This approach is based on the concept of integration of seismic, volcanic and tectonic processes that develop in the block geomedium and interact with each other through rotating waves with a symmetric stress tensor. The data obtained in this study give grounds to suggest that a geodynamic value, that is mechanically analogous to an impulse

  16. Cdc42-dependent leading edge coordination is essential for interstitial dendritic cell migration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lammermann, Tim; Renkawitz, Jorg; Wu, Xunwei

    2009-01-01

    Mature dendritic cells (DCs) moving from the skin to the lymph node are a prototypic example of rapidly migrating amoeboid leukocytes. Interstitial DC migration is directionally guided by chemokines, but independent of specific adhesive interactions with the tissue as well as pericellular proteol...

  17. Japanese migration in contemporary Japan: economic segmentation and interprefectural migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukurai, H

    1991-01-01

    This paper examines the economic segmentation model in explaining 1985-86 Japanese interregional migration. The analysis takes advantage of statistical graphic techniques to illustrate the following substantive issues of interregional migration: (1) to examine whether economic segmentation significantly influences Japanese regional migration and (2) to explain socioeconomic characteristics of prefectures for both in- and out-migration. Analytic techniques include a latent structural equation (LISREL) methodology and statistical residual mapping. The residual dispersion patterns, for instance, suggest the extent to which socioeconomic and geopolitical variables explain migration differences by showing unique clusters of unexplained residuals. The analysis further points out that extraneous factors such as high residential land values, significant commuting populations, and regional-specific cultures and traditions need to be incorporated in the economic segmentation model in order to assess the extent of the model's reliability in explaining the pattern of interprefectural migration.

  18. Reassessment of 50 years of seismicity in Simav-Gediz grabens (Western Turkey), based on earthquake relocations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karasozen, E.; Nissen, E.; Bergman, E. A.; Walters, R. J.

    2013-12-01

    Western Turkey is a rapidly deforming region with a long history of high-magnitude normal faulting earthquakes. However, the locations and slip rates of the responsible faults are poorly constrained. Here, we reassess a series of large instrumental earthquakes in the Simav-Gediz region, an area exhibiting a strong E-W gradient in N-S extension rates, from low rates bordering the Anatolian Plateau to much higher rates in the west. We start with investigating a recent Mw 5.9 earthquake at Simav (19 May 2011) using InSAR, teleseismic body-wave modeling and field observations. Next, we exploit the small but clear InSAR signal to relocate a series of older, larger earthquakes, using a calibrated earthquake relocation method which is based on the hypocentroidial decomposition (HDC) method for multiple event relocation. These improved locations in turn provide an opportunity to reassess the regional style of deformation. One interesting aspect of these earthquakes is that the largest (the Mw 7.2 Gediz earthquake, March 1970) occurred in an area of slow extension and indistinct surface faulting, whilst the well-defined and more rapidly extending Simav graben has ruptured in several smaller, Mw 6 events. However, our relocations highlight the existence of a significant gap in instrumental earthquakes along the central Simav graben, which, if it ruptured in a single event, could equal ~Mw 7. We were unable to identify fault scarps along this section due to dense vegetation and human modification, and we suggest that acquiring LiDAR data in this area should be a high priority in order to properly investigate earthquake hazard in the Simav graben.

  19. Cascading elastic perturbation in Japan due to the 2012 M w 8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delorey, Andrew A; Chao, Kevin; Obara, Kazushige; Johnson, Paul A

    2015-10-01

    Since the discovery of extensive earthquake triggering occurring in response to the 1992 M w (moment magnitude) 7.3 Landers earthquake, it is now well established that seismic waves from earthquakes can trigger other earthquakes, tremor, slow slip, and pore pressure changes. Our contention is that earthquake triggering is one manifestation of a more widespread elastic disturbance that reveals information about Earth's stress state. Earth's stress state is central to our understanding of both natural and anthropogenic-induced crustal processes. We show that seismic waves from distant earthquakes may perturb stresses and frictional properties on faults and elastic moduli of the crust in cascading fashion. Transient dynamic stresses place crustal material into a metastable state during which the material recovers through a process termed slow dynamics. This observation of widespread, dynamically induced elastic perturbation, including systematic migration of offshore seismicity, strain transients, and velocity transients, presents a new characterization of Earth's elastic system that will advance our understanding of plate tectonics, seismicity, and seismic hazards.

  20. The wicked problem of earthquake hazard in developing countries: the example of Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steckler, M. S.; Akhter, S. H.; Stein, S.; Seeber, L.

    2017-12-01

    Many developing nations in earthquake-prone areas confront a tough problem: how much of their limited resources to use mitigating earthquake hazards? This decision is difficult because it is unclear when an infrequent major earthquake may happen, how big it could be, and how much harm it may cause. This issue faces nations with profound immediate needs and ongoing rapid urbanization. Earthquake hazard mitigation in Bangladesh is a wicked problem. It is the world's most densely populated nation, with 160 million people in an area the size of Iowa. Complex geology and sparse data make assessing a possibly-large earthquake hazard difficult. Hence it is hard to decide how much of the limited resources available should be used for earthquake hazard mitigation, given other more immediate needs. Per capita GDP is $1200, so Bangladesh is committed to economic growth and resources are needed to address many critical challenges and hazards. In their subtropical environment, rural Bangladeshis traditionally relied on modest mud or bamboo homes. Their rapidly growing, crowded capital, Dhaka, is filled with multistory concrete buildings likely to be vulnerable to earthquakes. The risk is compounded by the potential collapse of services and accessibility after a major temblor. However, extensive construction as the population shifts from rural to urban provides opportunity for earthquake-risk reduction. While this situation seems daunting, it is not hopeless. Robust risk management is practical, even for developing nations. It involves recognizing uncertainties and developing policies that should give a reasonable outcome for a range of the possible hazard and loss scenarios. Over decades, Bangladesh has achieved a thousandfold reduction in risk from tropical cyclones by building shelters and setting up a warning system. Similar efforts are underway for earthquakes. Smart investments can be very effective, even if modest. Hence, we suggest strategies consistent with high

  1. Tsunami Prediction and Earthquake Parameters Estimation in the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Sawlan, Zaid A

    2012-12-01

    Tsunami concerns have increased in the world after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. Consequently, tsunami models have been developed rapidly in the last few years. One of the advanced tsunami models is the GeoClaw tsunami model introduced by LeVeque (2011). This model is adaptive and consistent. Because of different sources of uncertainties in the model, observations are needed to improve model prediction through a data assimilation framework. Model inputs are earthquake parameters and topography. This thesis introduces a real-time tsunami forecasting method that combines tsunami model with observations using a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble Kalman smoother. The filter is used for state prediction while the smoother operates smoothing to estimate the earthquake parameters. This method reduces the error produced by uncertain inputs. In addition, state-parameter EnKF is implemented to estimate earthquake parameters. Although number of observations is small, estimated parameters generates a better tsunami prediction than the model. Methods and results of prediction experiments in the Red Sea are presented and the prospect of developing an operational tsunami prediction system in the Red Sea is discussed.

  2. Flash vaporization during earthquakes evidenced by gold deposits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherley, Dion K.; Henley, Richard W.

    2013-04-01

    Much of the world's known gold has been derived from arrays of quartz veins. The veins formed during periods of mountain building that occurred as long as 3 billion years ago, and were deposited by very large volumes of water that flowed along deep, seismically active faults. The veins formed under fluctuating pressures during earthquakes, but the magnitude of the pressure fluctuations and their influence on mineral deposition is not known. Here we use a simple thermo-mechanical piston model to calculate the drop in fluid pressure experienced by a fluid-filled fault cavity during an earthquake. The geometry of the model is constrained using measurements of typical fault jogs, such as those preserved in the Revenge gold deposit in Western Australia, and other gold d