Sample records for rapid demographic transition

  1. Understanding the Demographic and Health Transition in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    23 juin 2009 ... Understanding the Demographic and Health Transition in Developing Countries ... countries comes from analysis of demographic and health survey data. ... Navrongo (Ghana), Matlab (Bangladesh) and Filabavi (Viet Nam) ...

  2. Demographic transitions in Europe and the world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willekens, Frans

    The demographic transition is a universal phenomenon. All regions of the world experience a change from high levels of mortality and fertility to low levels. The onset and pace of the demographic transition vary between regions and countries because of differences in timing of events and conditions

  3. Effect of Attitudinal, Situational and Demographic Factors on Annoyance Due to Environmental Vibration and Noise from Construction of a Light Rapid Transit System

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    Daniel Wong-McSweeney


    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to determine what non-exposure factors influence the relationship between vibration and noise exposure from the construction of a Light Rapid Transit (LRT system and the annoyance of nearby residents. Noise and vibration from construction sites are known to annoy residents, with annoyance increasing as a function of the magnitude of the vibration and noise. There is not a strong correlation between exposure and levels of annoyance suggesting that factors not directly related to the exposure may have an influence. A range of attitudinal, situational and demographic factors are investigated with the aim of understanding the wide variation in annoyance for a given vibration exposure. A face-to-face survey of residents (n = 350 near three sites of LRT construction was conducted, and responses were compared to semi-empirical estimates of the internal vibration within the buildings. It was found that annoyance responses due to vibration were strongly influenced by two attitudinal variables, concern about property damage and sensitivity to vibration. Age, ownership of the property and the visibility of the construction site were also important factors. Gender, time at home and expectation of future levels of vibration had much less influence. Due to the measurement methods used, it was not possible to separate out the effects of noise and vibration on annoyance; as such, this paper focusses on annoyance due to vibration exposure. This work concludes that for the most cost-effective reduction of the impact of construction vibration and noise on the annoyance felt by a community, policies should consider attitudinal factors.

  4. Understanding the Demographic and Health Transition in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The shift from high to low levels of mortality and fertility called the demographic transition occurred over a century ago in the developed world. While the reasons for the transition in Western Europe and North America are well documented, little is known about the transition in developing countries except that it is reported to ...

  5. Demographic transitions in Europe and the world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willekens, F.J.; Matthijs, K.; Neels, K.; Timmerman, C.; Haers, J.; Mels, S.


    Willekens, F. (2015) Demographic transitions in Europe and the world. In: K. Matthijs, K. Neels, C. Timmerman. J. Haers and S. Mels eds. Population change at work in Europe, the Middle-East and North Africa. Beyond the demographic divide. Ashgate (International Population Studies Series) pp. 13-44.

  6. Tiber Personal Rapid Transit

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    Diego Carlo D'agostino


    Full Text Available The project “Tiber Personal Rapid Transit” have been presented by the author at the Rome City Vision Competition1 2010, an ideas competition, which challenges architects, engineers, designers, students and creatives individuals to develop visionary urban proposals with the intention of stimulating and supporting the contemporary city, in this case Rome. The Tiber PRT proposal tries to answer the competition questions with the definition of a provocative idea: a Personal Rapid transit System on the Tiber river banks. The project is located in the central section of the Tiber river and aims at the renewal of the river banks with the insertion of a Personal Rapid Transit infrastructure. The project area include the riverbank of Tiber from Rome Transtevere RFI station to Piazza del Popolo, an area where main touristic and leisure attractions are located. The intervention area is actually no used by the city users and residents and constitute itself a strong barrier in the heart of the historic city.

  7. The demographic transition: an attempt to reformulate a population theory. (United States)

    Hofsten, E


    In this effort to reformulate the demographic transition theory, attention is directed to the following: Malthus and Karl Marx's criticism of his principle of population; the 1st stage of transition, i.e., high mortality, high fertility, and slow population growth; the 2nd stage of declining mortality; the 3rd stage of declining fertility; the 4th stage when mortality and fertility are both low; the growth potential; and the demographic transition in the 3rd world countries. The demographic transition theory has become popular among demographers, economists, historians, and others interested in studying the development of population over time since the end of World War 2. This interest has most likely been created by the anxiety over the population explosion in the 3rd world countries. Transition has made demographers believe that the period of rapid population growth will be automatically succeeded by a period of more or less constant population size. The question that arises is whether it is as simple as that. Demographic transition has to a great extent taken the place of Malthus' principle of population as a general theory of population. Demographic transition appears to describe in a satisfactory way the development of population which all currently industrialized countires have passed through, when going from the preindustrial to the present industrialized stage. The objectives to demographic transition as a general theory are considered. Some of the factors which have accounted for the decline in fertility in Europe may also apply to the 3rd world countries. 1 such factor is the effect of reduced infant and child mortality on the individual level. The fertility decline, caused by reduced infant and child mortality may, however, be of limited size. The great amount of unemployment in the 3rd world may affect fertility in a downward direction. The fertility decline in Europe occurred simultaneously with an industrialization process, which gradually covered the

  8. Correlates of intimate partner violence against women during a time of rapid social transition in Rwanda: analysis of the 2005 and 2010 demographic and health surveys. (United States)

    Thomson, Dana R; Bah, Assiatou B; Rubanzana, Wilson G; Mutesa, Leon


    In Rwanda, women who self-reported in household surveys ever experiencing intimate partner violence (IPV) increased from 34 % in 2005 to 56 % in 2010. This coincided with a new constitution and majority-female elected parliament in 2003, and 2008 legislation protecting against gender-based violence. The increase in self-reported IPV may reflect improved social power for women, and/or disruptions to traditional gender roles that increased actual IPV. This is a cross-sectional study of IPV in 4338 couples interviewed in the 2005 and 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Surveys (RDHSs). Factors associated with physical or sexual IPV in the last 12 months were modeled using manual backward stepwise logistic regression. Analyses were conducted in Stata v13 adjusting for complex survey design. Risk factors for IPV in 2005 (p Rwanda's Isange One Stop Center project, with medical, legal, and psychosocial services for domestic violence victims, is currently scaling to all 44 district hospitals, and police station gender desks reduce barriers to legal reporting of IPV. Additional support to Abunzi mediators to hear IPV cases in communities, and involvement of men in grassroots efforts to redefine masculinity in Rwanda are suggested. Additional research is needed to understand why self-reported IPV has increased in Rwanda, and to evaluate effectiveness of IPV interventions.

  9. Population Ageing and the Theory of Demographic Transition: The ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population Ageing and the Theory of Demographic Transition: The Case of Mauritius. ... the life expectancy of the population and consequently, the society is ageing. ... Originality/Value – Although some studies have been done on ageing yet ...

  10. The second demographic transition: a concise overview of its development. (United States)

    Lesthaeghe, Ron


    This article gives a concise overview of the theoretical development of the concept of the "second demographic transition" since it was coined in 1986, its components, and its applicability, first to European populations and subsequently also to non-European societies as well. Both the demographic and the societal contrasts between the first demographic transition (FDT) and the second demographic transition (SDT) are highlighted. Then, the major criticisms of the SDT theory are outlined, and these issues are discussed in the light of the most recent developments in Europe, the United States, the Far East, and Latin America. It turns out that three major SDT patterns have developed and that these evolutions are contingent on much older systems of kinship and family organization.

  11. Partner relationships in the Netherlands: new manifestations of the Second Demographic Transition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Latten, J.J.; Mulder, C.H.


    Partnership formation has rapidly and profoundly changed in theNetherlandssince the 1960s.Several scholars have placed these changes in the context of the Second Demographic Transition. We describe the main trends in the formation and dissolution of partnerships in theNetherlandsbetween the

  12. Partner relationships in the Netherlands : New manifestations of the Second Demographic Transition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Latten, Jan J.; Mulder, Clara H.


    Partnership formation has rapidly and profoundly changed in theNetherlandssince the 1960s.Several scholars have placed these changes in the context of the Second Demographic Transition. We describe the main trends in the formation and dissolution of partnerships in theNetherlandsbetween the

  13. Policy Implications of the Next World Demographic Transition


    Harbison, Sarah F.; Robinson, Warren C.


    Although the world demographic transition from high to low fertility appears to be nearing its completion, observed in perspective, this is the latest in a series of such transitions stretching back into prehistory. A stable new equilibrium is far from inevitable; indeed, it is unlikely. Many countries are experiencing below‐replacement‐level fertility, and this trend is spreading. Couples are now able to choose their family size, free of the traditional pressures to bear children that was ch...

  14. Russian Federation : From the first to second demographic transition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zakharov, Sergei


    The demographic transition in Russia was accelerated by several social cataclysms during the "Soviet type" modernization. Frequent changes in the timing of births and marriages engendered a mass "abortion culture". Contraceptive devices of poor quality were produced on a limited scale. The Soviet

  15. The Second Demographic Transition in Israel: One for All?

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    Evgenia Bystrov


    Full Text Available This article explores family behaviours and attitudes in Israel over the last decades through the lens of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT. Israel is divided by religious affiliation, the level of religiosity, ethnic origin and timing of immigration. Although fertility transition to replacement level among certain societal groups has been previously shown, the question of how the transition unfolds in other domains remains open. The goal of this paper is to highlight the diversity of marital and fertility transitions and non-transitions among various groups of this heterogeneous society, and to compare Israel's transitions to European ones. The data sources which are used are cross-national large scale surveys, national representative surveys, and Population Register data. The data were disaggregated by religion, religiousness and ethnic origin. Emancipative value change, postponement of marriage, alternative living arrangements and a growing variety of fertility regimes were analyzed. A full range of pre-transitional, transitional, and post-transitional elements was found among the groups. Such sign of the SDT as growing childlessness was not found, and the spread of other features as unmarried cohabitation and non-marital childbearing was found limited. Population composition effects were isolated. It was found that the level of religiosity and the country of origin are important factors which differentiate family behaviours and attitudes. The connection between value orientation of the groups within Israel and their family behaviours is discussed. The socio-structural and institutional constraints that might impede further progression of the Second Demographic Transition in Israel are also discussed. Further research directions are suggested.

  16. Demographic model of the Neolithic transition in Central Europe

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    Patrik Galeta


    Full Text Available Several recent lines of evidence indicate more intensive contact between LBK farmers and indigenous foragers in Central Europe (5600–5400 calBC. Strong continuity has been identified between Mesolithic and Neolithic material cultures; faunal assemblages, and isotopic analyses of diet have revealed a greater role of hunting in LBK communities; genetic analyses have suggested that the modern Central European gene pool is mainly of Palaeolithic origin. Surprisingly little attention has been paid to demographic aspects of the Neolithic transition. In our study, demographic simulations were performed to assess the demographic conditions that would allow LBK farmers to spread across central Europe without any admixture with Mesolithic foragers. We constructed a stochastic demographic model of changes in farming population size. Model parameters were constrained by data from human demography, archaeology, and human ecology. Our results indicate that the establishment of farming communities in Central Europe without an admixture with foragers was highly improbable. The demographic conditions necessary for colonization were beyond the potential of the Neolithic population. Our study supports the integrationists’ view of the Neolithic transition in Central Europe.

  17. THE SECOND DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY: A Review and Appraisal. (United States)

    Zaidi, Batool; Morgan, S Philip


    References to the second demographic transition (SDT) concept/theoretical framework have increased dramatically in the last two decades. The SDT predicts unilinear change toward very low fertility and a diversity of union and family types. The primary driver of these changes is a powerful, inevitable and irreversible shift in attitudes and norms in the direction of greater individual freedom and self-actualization. First, we describe the origin of this framework and its evolution over time. Second, we review the empirical fit of the framework to major changes in demographic and family behavior in the U.S., the West, and beyond. As has been the case for other unilinear, developmental theories of demographic/family change, the SDT failed to predict many contemporary patterns of change/difference. Finally, we review previous critiques and identify fundamental weaknesses of this perspective, and provide brief comparisons to selected alternative approaches.

  18. Which transition comes first? Urban and demographic transitions in Belgium and Sweden

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    Philippe Bocquier


    Full Text Available Background: Several theories compete to explain the main drivers of urbanisation, past and present, in relation to both demographic transition and economic development. One hypothesis is that rural-to-urban migration is the driver of urbanisation; another is that urban mortality decline actually triggered urban transition. Objective: This paper reconsiders the relationship between demographic (vital migration and urban transitions by analysing the long-term contribution of natural and migratory movements to urban transition. The respective contributions of birth, death, and migration and their timing will indicate whether economic development, through labour force migration, or vital transition mainly determines urban transition. Methods: After examining the spatial dimension of the demographic transition theory, we use 19th and 20th century series on Sweden and Belgium to better identify the migration component of urban transition through the computation of growth difference between urban and rural areas, accounting for the often neglected reclassification effect. Results: In both Sweden and Belgium, migration is the direct or indirect (through reclassification engine of urban transition and its contribution precedes the onset of vital transition, while the vital transition has a secondary, unstable, and negative role in the urban transition. Conclusions: Changes in the economic sphere are reinstated as the underlying cause of population change, acting through the shift of human capital in space. Methodological consequences are then drawn for analysing vital and urban transitions in an increasingly interdependent world. Contribution: The paper contributes to the theoretical literature on urban and demographic transitions in relation to economic development. The proposed method evaluates migration contribution without having to measure it.





    The trajectory of Singapore's population size and composition can be mapped out with its progression through the various phases of demographic transition from high birth and death rates in the post-war years to very low birth and death rates today, all within the context of rapid economic and social development that has taken place in the past 50 years. Population planning has been integral in Singapore's national development strategy, balancing the economy's needs for more and better qualifi...

  20. Turkey’s Epidemiological and Demographic Transitions: 1931-2013

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    Coşkun Bakar


    Full Text Available Background: The causes of death have changed with regard to the epidemiological and demographic events in society. There is no evidence of prior research into the epidemiological transition in Turkey. This transition in Turkey should be observed starting with the Ottoman Empire period (19th to early 20th century. However, information about the Ottoman Empire is quite limited. Aims: To discuss the epidemiological and demographic transitions in Turkey, using demographic, educational and urbanization data in our present study. Study Design: A descriptive archive study. Methods: Mortality statistics dating from 1931 and published by the Turkish Statistical Institute were analysed, and the causes of death were coded and classified according to ICD-10. Other data were obtained from the published reports and studies regarding the issue. Results: In the 1930s, Turkey’s life expectancy was low (aged 40 years, fertility and mortality rates were high (respectively 45% and 31%, and the main causes of death were infectious diseases. Nowadays, life expectancy is close to 80 years, the total fertility rate has dropped to 2.1 per woman, and the main causes of death are chronic diseases and cancer. The population rate in the urban areas has increased steadily from 24.2% in 1927 to 77.3% in 2012. level of education has also increased during this period. In 1935, less than 10% of women were literate, and in 2013 90% were literate. Qualitative and quantitative increase have been observed in the presentation and access of healthcare services compared to the early years of the Republic. Conclusion: Turkey has been undergoing a modernization period in the last 200 years, and it is believed that the epidemiological and demographic transitions result from this period. This process has led to urbanization and an increase in the level of education, as well as a decrease in premature deaths, lower fertility rates, and an increase in the elderly population and chronic

  1. [Demographic transition or revolution? The weaknesses and implications of the demographic transition theory. Part 1: the origins]. (United States)

    Bourcier De Carbon, P


    The work of Adolphe Landry is reviewed in relation to development of demographic transition theory. Landry was appointed administrator in 1912 of the National Alliance Against Depopulation and remained active in it his whole life. He also helped create family allowance programs in France. As early as 1909, Landry described three different population regimes. In the "primitive" regime, which characterized all nonhuman life and human life during most of history, the population was adjusted to available subsistence by mortality. In the "intermediate" phase, restrictions on marriage and control of reproduction outside marriage maintained the population at a level below the maximum supportable. In the "contemporary" regime, the universal practice of contraception and abortion could lead to very low levels of fertility. The spread of contraception and low fertility appeared to Landry a true demographic revolution. He attributed the acceptance of contraception to a change in the common aspirations of human beings regarding their conditions, a desire for improved material well-being and social advancement, and an increased spirit of rationality and even calculation in their behavior. Landry believed that the contemporary regime, unlike the preceding two, had no mechanism implying equilibrium. The demographic revolution freed fertility from social determinants and linked it more closely to individual interests. Landry expected the contemporary regime to spread throughout the entire world, with many areas still in the primitive phase passing directly to the contemporary. He was concerned with the effects of demographic aging, and he deplored birth control propaganda that claimed it as a cure for unemployment and for overpopulation in the poor Asian countries. The birth control movements in England and the US were successful in bringing the two countries into the contemporary regime. A number of organizations such as the Population Association of America and the Office of

  2. Demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions: are they relevant to population health patterns in Africa?

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    Barthélémy Kuate Defo


    Full Text Available Background: Studies of trends in population changes and epidemiological profiles in the developing world have overwhelmingly relied upon the concepts of demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions, even though their usefulness in describing and understanding population and health trends in developing countries has been repeatedly called into question. The issue is particularly relevant for the study of population health patterns in Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, as the history and experience there differs substantially from that of Western Europe and North America, for which these concepts were originally developed. Objective: The aim of this study is two-fold: to review and clarify any distinction between the concepts of demographic transition, epidemiological transition and health transition and to identify summary indicators of population health to test how well these concepts apply in Africa. Results: Notwithstanding the characteristically diverse African context, Africa is a continent of uncertainties and emergencies where discontinuities and interruptions of health, disease, and mortality trends reflect the enduring fragility and instability of countries and the vulnerabilities of individuals and populations in the continent. Africa as a whole remains the furthest behind the world's regions in terms of health improvements and longevity, as do its sub-Saharan African regions and societies specifically. This study documents: 1 theoretically and empirically the similarities and differences between the demographic transition, epidemiological transition, and health transition; 2 simple summary indicators that can be used to evaluate their descriptive and predictive features; 3 marked disparities in the onset and pace of variations and divergent trends in health, disease, and mortality patterns as well as fertility and life expectancy trajectories among African countries and regions over the past 60 years; 4 the rapid decline in infant

  3. Demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions: are they relevant to population health patterns in Africa? (United States)

    Kuate Defo, Barthélémy


    Background Studies of trends in population changes and epidemiological profiles in the developing world have overwhelmingly relied upon the concepts of demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions, even though their usefulness in describing and understanding population and health trends in developing countries has been repeatedly called into question. The issue is particularly relevant for the study of population health patterns in Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, as the history and experience there differs substantially from that of Western Europe and North America, for which these concepts were originally developed. Objective The aim of this study is two-fold: to review and clarify any distinction between the concepts of demographic transition, epidemiological transition and health transition and to identify summary indicators of population health to test how well these concepts apply in Africa. Results Notwithstanding the characteristically diverse African context, Africa is a continent of uncertainties and emergencies where discontinuities and interruptions of health, disease, and mortality trends reflect the enduring fragility and instability of countries and the vulnerabilities of individuals and populations in the continent. Africa as a whole remains the furthest behind the world's regions in terms of health improvements and longevity, as do its sub-Saharan African regions and societies specifically. This study documents: 1) theoretically and empirically the similarities and differences between the demographic transition, epidemiological transition, and health transition; 2) simple summary indicators that can be used to evaluate their descriptive and predictive features; 3) marked disparities in the onset and pace of variations and divergent trends in health, disease, and mortality patterns as well as fertility and life expectancy trajectories among African countries and regions over the past 60 years; 4) the rapid decline in infant mortality and gains

  4. Demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions: are they relevant to population health patterns in Africa? (United States)

    Kuate Defo, Barthélémy


    Studies of trends in population changes and epidemiological profiles in the developing world have overwhelmingly relied upon the concepts of demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions, even though their usefulness in describing and understanding population and health trends in developing countries has been repeatedly called into question. The issue is particularly relevant for the study of population health patterns in Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, as the history and experience there differs substantially from that of Western Europe and North America, for which these concepts were originally developed. The aim of this study is two-fold: to review and clarify any distinction between the concepts of demographic transition, epidemiological transition and health transition and to identify summary indicators of population health to test how well these concepts apply in Africa. Notwithstanding the characteristically diverse African context, Africa is a continent of uncertainties and emergencies where discontinuities and interruptions of health, disease, and mortality trends reflect the enduring fragility and instability of countries and the vulnerabilities of individuals and populations in the continent. Africa as a whole remains the furthest behind the world's regions in terms of health improvements and longevity, as do its sub-Saharan African regions and societies specifically. This study documents: 1) theoretically and empirically the similarities and differences between the demographic transition, epidemiological transition, and health transition; 2) simple summary indicators that can be used to evaluate their descriptive and predictive features; 3) marked disparities in the onset and pace of variations and divergent trends in health, disease, and mortality patterns as well as fertility and life expectancy trajectories among African countries and regions over the past 60 years; 4) the rapid decline in infant mortality and gains in life expectancy from the

  5. Life Expectancy and Economic Growth : The Role of the Demographic Transition


    Cervellati, Matteo; Sunde, Uwe


    In this paper we investigate the causal effect of life expectancy on economic growth by explicitly accounting for the role of the demographic transition. In addition to focusing on issues of empirical identification, this paper emphasizes the role of the econometric specification. We present a simple theory of the economic and demographic transition where individuals' education and fertility decisions depend on their life expectancy. The theory predicts that before the demographic transition ...

  6. Rapid, global demographic expansions after the origins of agriculture. (United States)

    Gignoux, Christopher R; Henn, Brenna M; Mountain, Joanna L


    The invention of agriculture is widely assumed to have driven recent human population growth. However, direct genetic evidence for population growth after independent agricultural origins has been elusive. We estimated population sizes through time from a set of globally distributed whole mitochondrial genomes, after separating lineages associated with agricultural populations from those associated with hunter-gatherers. The coalescent-based analysis revealed strong evidence for distinct demographic expansions in Europe, southeastern Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa within the past 10,000 y. Estimates of the timing of population growth based on genetic data correspond neatly to dates for the initial origins of agriculture derived from archaeological evidence. Comparisons of rates of population growth through time reveal that the invention of agriculture facilitated a fivefold increase in population growth relative to more ancient expansions of hunter-gatherers.

  7. Synchronous Routing for Personal Rapid Transit Pods

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    Mehdi Mrad


    Full Text Available Personal rapid transit (PRT is a public and automated transport system in which a fleet of small driverless vehicles operate in order to transport passengers between a set of stations through a network of guided ways. Each customer is carried from one station to another directly with no stop in intermediate stations. This mode of transport can result in a high level of unused capacity due to the empty moves of the vehicles. In this paper, we model the problem of minimizing the energy consumed by the PRT system while assuming predeterministic list of orders; then we solve it using some constructive heuristics. Experiments are run on 1320 randomly generated test problems with various sizes. Our algorithms are shown to give good results over large trip instances.

  8. Transitions in rapidly rotating convection dynamos (United States)

    Tilgner, A.


    It is commonly assumed that buoyancy in the fluid core powers the geodynamo. We study here the minimal model of a convection driven dynamo, which is a horizontal plane layer in a gravity field, filled with electrically conducting fluid, heated from below and cooled from above, and rotating about a vertical axis. Such a plane layer may be viewed as a local approximation to the geophysically more relevant spherical geometry. The numerical simulations have been run on graphics processing units with at least 960 cores. If the convection is driven stronger and stronger at fixed rotation rate, the flow behaves at some point as if it was not rotating. This transition shows in the scaling of the heat transport which can be used to distinguish slow from rapid rotation. One expects dynamos to behave differently in these two flow regimes. But even within the convection flows which are rapidly rotating according to this criterion, it will be shown that different types of dynamos exist. In one state, the magnetic field strength obeys a scaling indicative of a magnetostrophic balance, in which the Lorentz force is in equilibrium with the Coriolis force. The flow in this case is helical. A different state exists at higher magnetic Reynolds numbers, in which the magnetic energy obeys a different scaling law and the helicity of the flow is much reduced. As one increases the Rayleigh number, all other parameters kept constant, one may find both types of dynamos separated by an interval of Rayleigh numbers in which there are no dynamos at all. The effect of these transitions on energy dissipation and mean field generation have also been studied.

  9. Heliopause Electrostatic Rapid Transit System (HERTS) (United States)

    Wiegmann, Bruce M.


    A recent six month investigation focused on: "Determining the benefits of propelling a scientific spacecraft by an 'Electric Sail' propulsion system to the edge of our solar system (the Heliopause), a distance of 100 to 120 AU, in ten years or less" has recently been completed by the Advance Concepts Office at NASA's MSFC. The concept investigated has been named the Heliopause Electrostatic Rapid Transit System (HERTS) by the MSFC team. The HERTS is a revolutionary propellant-less propulsion concept that is ideal for deep space missions to the Outer Planets, Heliopause, and beyond. It is unique in that it uses momentum exchange from naturally occurring solar wind protons to propel a spacecraft within the heliosphere. The propulsion system consists of an array of electrically positively-biased wires that extend outward 20 km from a rotating (one revolution per hour) spacecraft. It was determined that the HERTS system can accelerate a spacecraft to velocities as much as two to three times that possible by any realistic extrapolation of current state-of-the-art propulsion technologies- including solar electric and solar sail propulsion systems. The data produced show that a scientific spacecraft could reach distances of 100AU in less than 10 years. Moreover, it can be reasonably expected that this system could be developed within a decade and provide meaningful Heliophysics Science and Outer Planetary Science returns in the 2025-2035 timeframe.

  10. The demographic transition influences variance in fitness and selection on height and BMI in rural Gambia. (United States)

    Courtiol, Alexandre; Rickard, Ian J; Lummaa, Virpi; Prentice, Andrew M; Fulford, Anthony J C; Stearns, Stephen C


    Recent human history is marked by demographic transitions characterized by declines in mortality and fertility. By influencing the variance in those fitness components, demographic transitions can affect selection on other traits. Parallel to changes in selection triggered by demography per se, relationships between fitness and anthropometric traits are also expected to change due to modification of the environment. Here we explore for the first time these two main evolutionary consequences of demographic transitions using a unique data set containing survival, fertility, and anthropometric data for thousands of women in rural Gambia from 1956-2010. We show how the demographic transition influenced directional selection on height and body mass index (BMI). We observed a change in selection for both traits mediated by variation in fertility: selection initially favored short females with high BMI values but shifted across the demographic transition to favor tall females with low BMI values. We demonstrate that these differences resulted both from changes in fitness variance that shape the strength of selection and from shifts in selective pressures triggered by environmental changes. These results suggest that demographic and environmental trends encountered by current human populations worldwide are likely to modify, but not stop, natural selection in humans. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Lifetime reproduction and the second demographic transition: Stochasticity and individual variation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Daalen, S.; Caswell, H.


    BACKGROUND In the last half of the previous century many developed countries went through a period of decreasing fertility rates, referred to as the second demographic transition. This transition is often measured using the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which gives the mean number of children produced

  12. How does variance in fertility change over the demographic transition? (United States)

    Hruschka, Daniel J; Burger, Oskar


    Most work on the human fertility transition has focused on declines in mean fertility. However, understanding changes in the variance of reproductive outcomes can be equally important for evolutionary questions about the heritability of fertility, individual determinants of fertility and changing patterns of reproductive skew. Here, we document how variance in completed fertility among women (45-49 years) differs across 200 surveys in 72 low- to middle-income countries where fertility transitions are currently in progress at various stages. Nearly all (91%) of samples exhibit variance consistent with a Poisson process of fertility, which places systematic, and often severe, theoretical upper bounds on the proportion of variance that can be attributed to individual differences. In contrast to the pattern of total variance, these upper bounds increase from high- to mid-fertility samples, then decline again as samples move from mid to low fertility. Notably, the lowest fertility samples often deviate from a Poisson process. This suggests that as populations move to low fertility their reproduction shifts from a rate-based process to a focus on an ideal number of children. We discuss the implications of these findings for predicting completed fertility from individual-level variables. © 2016 The Author(s).

  13. Overview Chapter 6: The diverse faces of the Second Demographic Transition in Europe

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    Tomáš Sobotka


    Full Text Available This chapter discusses the concept of the second demographic transition (SDT and its relevance for explaining the ongoing changes in family and fertility patterns across Europe. It takes a closer look at the shifts in values and attitudes related to family, reproduction, and children, and their representation in different chapters in this collection. It re-examines the link between the second demographic transition and fertility, highlights its strong positive association with fertility at later childbearing ages, and suggests that the transition does not necessarily lead to sub-replacement fertility levels. Subsequently, it provides an extensive discussion on the progression of the SDT behind the former 'Iron Curtain.' To explain some apparent contradictions in this process, it employs a conceptual model of 'readiness, willingness, and ability' (RWA advocated by Lesthaeghe and Vanderhoeft (2001. It also explores the multifaceted nature of the second demographic transition between different social groups, and points out an apparent paradox: whereas lower-educated individuals often embrace values that can be characterised as rather traditional, they also frequently manifest family behaviour associated with the transition, such as non-marital childbearing, high partnership instability, and high prevalence of long-term cohabitation. This suggests that there may be two different pathways of the progression of the second demographic transition. The concluding section points out the role of structural constraints for the diffusion of the transition among disadvantaged social strata, highlights the importance of the 'gender revolution' for the SDT trends, and discusses the usefulness of the SDT framework.

  14. Mortality-fertility synergies during the demographic transition in the developed world. (United States)

    Sánchez-Barricarte, Jesús J


    The classic theory used to explain the demographic transition assumes that mortality is the key explanatory variable influencing the decline in fertility. However, the empirical results obtained in what is known as the Princeton European Fertility Project have led many specialists to question this assumption. Using both national and provincial aggregated data for 25 countries over a long time span, the analysis reported in this paper found that mortality does indeed play a fundamental role in accounting for the main demographic changes that occurred both before and during the transitional period. Others' research based on individual data has shown clearly that the number of surviving children was indeed an important factor for reproductive decisions. My analysis, using aggregated data, reached largely similar conclusions regarding the role of mortality in changing reproductive trends, via its impact on nuptiality and marital fertility at different stages of the demographic transition.

  15. How do demographic transitions and public health policies affect patients with Parkinson's disease in Brazil? (United States)

    Bovolenta, Tânia M; Felicio, Andre C


    Brazil is currently experiencing a significant demographic transition characterized by a decrease in fertility rates and an exponential increase in the number of elderly citizens, which presents a special challenge for the health care professionals. More than other portions of the population, the elderly are most commonly affected by chronic diseases such as Parkinson's disease. Policymakers contend that Brazil is reasonably well-prepared regarding elderly health care, with policies that aim to ensure the quality of life and the well-being of this portion of the population. However, what happens in practice falls short of what the Brazilian Constitution sets forth. Specifically, there is a clear contradiction between what the law recognizes as being a citizen's rights and the implementation of guidelines. Because health financing in Brazil remains relatively low, the civil society tries to fill in the gaps as much as possible in the treatment of elderly patients suffering from chronic diseases such as Parkinson's disease. In this review, we outline the current legislation in Brazil regarding the elderly and in particular, patients with Parkinson's disease, in the context of a rapidly aging population.

  16. [The beginnings of the demographic transition in Croatia and its socioeconomic foundations (until 1918)]. (United States)

    Karaman, I


    This is a historical survey of the process of modernization and the formulation of political and economic systems in Croatia, Yugoslavia, from the mid-nineteenth century to the present. Population dynamics and concurrent demographic transitions are addressed. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)

  17. Future scenarios for energy consumption and carbon emissions due to demographic transitions in Chinese households (United States)

    Yu, Biying; Wei, Yi-Ming; Kei, Gomi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru


    Population dynamics has been acknowledged as a key concern for projecting future emissions, partly because of the huge uncertainties related to human behaviour. However, the heterogeneous shifts of human behaviour in the process of demographic transition are not well explored when scrutinizing the impacts of population dynamics on carbon emissions. Here, we expand the existing population-economy-environment analytical structure to address the above limitations by representing the trend of demographic transitions to small-family and ageing society. We specifically accommodate for inter- and intra-life-stage variations in time allocation and consumption in the population rather than assuming a representative household, and take a less developed province, Sichuan, in China as the empirical context. Our results show that the demographic shift to small and ageing households will boost energy consumption and carbon emissions, driven by the joint variations in time-use and consumption patterns. Furthermore, biased pictures of changing emissions will emerge if the time effect is disregarded.

  18. Economic impacts of bus rapid transit in southeast Michigan. (United States)


    In recent years, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) has generated great interest across the United States. There are more than 20 BRT : systems in existence, and more are in the planning stage (including in Detroit). Within the next few years, BRT will be plann...

  19. Rapid Communication: v= 2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Pramana – Journal of Physics; Volume 89; Issue 5. Rapid Communication: Δ υ = 2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3 − states and B ( E 3 ) systematics of Sn isotopes. BHOOMIKA MAHESHWARI SWATI GARG ASHOK KUMAR JAIN. Research Article Volume 89 Issue 5 November 2017 Article ID 75 ...

  20. The Effects of the Demographic Transition on Economic Growth : Implications for Japan


    Sundman, Marie-Lor


    Demographic transition implies severe challenges for high income nations, for instance Japan, as the population decreases due to declines in birth rates as well as the higher rate of elderly population. More women are entering the labor market which affects birth rates. In addition, technological progress has improved health care and standard of living, bringing up life expectancies. However, the elderly population is increasing, elevating the dependency ratio which dampens the economic growt...

  1. Demographic transition and population ageing in India: Implications on the elderly of the future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shradha Mathur


    Full Text Available Ageing population of India will transform into the elderly in future. The issue of health of the elderly population in India has arrested the attention of health policy makers and the researchers, in the recent past. Demographic structure, quality of life, healthcare services and government planning have serious implications on the ageing population. The objective of the research article is to systematically and critically evaluate the impact of demographic transition, projected demographic indicators and changing population characteristics on the health status of the elderly persons living in India in the coming decades. Analysis and discussions are based on secondary data published by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare of the Government of India. The results indicate that India will be an ageing nation in the coming years and improvements in health, education and government planning are likely to enhance the life expectancy of the elderly, while the share of children will reduce, suggesting an increase in dependency of the older persons on the adult population. The article provides insights into workable solutions and suggests key recommendations to attain faster demographic dividend. India would be competing with the pressure of a dramatic demographic bulge in future.

  2. [The theory of the demographic transition as a reference for demo-economic models]. (United States)

    Genne, M


    The aim of the theory of demographic transition (TTD) is to better understand the behavior and interrelationship of economic and demographic variables. There are 2 types of demo-economic models: 1) the malthusian models, which consider demographic variables as pure exogenous variables, and 2) the neoclassical models, which consider demographic variables as strictly endogenous. If TTD can explore the behavior of exogenous and endogenous demographic variables, it cannot demonstrate neither the relation nor the order of causality among the various demographic and economic variables, but it is simply the theoretical framework of a complex social and economic phenomenon which started in Europe in the 19th Century, and which today can be extended to developing countries. There are 4 stages in the TTD; the 1st stage is characterized by high levels of fecundity and mortality; the 2nd stage is characterized by high fecundity levels and declining mortality levels; the 3rd stage is characterized by declining fecundity levels and low mortality levels; the 4th stage is characterized by low fertility and mortality levels. The impact of economic variables over mortality and birth rates is evident for mortality rates, which decline earlier and at a greater speed than birth rates. According to reliable mathematical predictions, around the year 1987 mortality rates in developing countries will have reached the low level of European countries, and growth rate will be only 1.5%. If the validity of demo-economic models has not yet been established, TTD has clearly shown that social and economic development is the factor which influences demographic expansion.

  3. How do demographic transitions and public health policies affect patients with Parkinson’s disease in Brazil?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bovolenta TM


    Full Text Available Tânia M Bovolenta, Andre C Felicio R. Neurology Program, Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, São Paulo, Brazil Abstract: Brazil is currently experiencing a significant demographic transition characterized by a decrease in fertility rates and an exponential increase in the number of elderly citizens, which presents a special challenge for the health care professionals. More than other portions of the population, the elderly are most commonly affected by chronic diseases such as Parkinson’s disease. Policymakers contend that Brazil is reasonably well-prepared regarding elderly health care, with policies that aim to ensure the quality of life and the well-being of this portion of the population. However, what happens in practice falls short of what the Brazilian Constitution sets forth. Specifically, there is a clear contradiction between what the law recognizes as being a citizen’s rights and the implementation of guidelines. Because health financing in Brazil remains relatively low, the civil society tries to fill in the gaps as much as possible in the treatment of elderly patients suffering from chronic diseases such as Parkinson’s disease. In this review, we outline the current legislation in Brazil regarding the elderly and in particular, patients with Parkinson’s disease, in the context of a rapidly aging population. Keywords: Parkinson’s disease, demographic transition, public health, health assistance financing

  4. Demographic implications of socioeconomic transition among the tribal populations of Manipur, India. (United States)

    Hemam, N S; Reddy, B M


    The demographic implications of socioeconomic transition are studied among the three subsistence categories of the Gangte, a little known tribe from northeast India. Reproductive histories of 444 ever-married women and other data on the 343 households from which these women were drawn were collected from 11 villages representing the 3 transitional groups. A trend of increasing household income and literacy of couples was observed from shifting cultivators to settled agriculturists to the town-dwelling Gangte. The effect of socioeconomic transition is also seen in the constriction at the base of the age-sex pyramid of the town dwellers compared with the other subsistence categories, suggesting a relatively lower proportion of children in the 0-5-year-old age group. Although exogamy is practiced among all the subsistence categories, a considerably higher percentage of admixture with non-Gangte is observed among the town dwellers compared with the others. Overall infant and child mortality among the Gangte is low. However, variation exists among the three subsistence groups in the sense that a considerable reduction is seen from the traditional shifting cultivators to the urbanized town dwellers, reflecting better socioeconomic conditions and greater awareness and accessibility of the town dwellers to public health amenities. No consistent or perceptible trend is evident in mean number of live births. The genetic implications of this demographic transition are reflected in Crow's indexes of selection.

  5. Detecting the Evolution of Deliberate Fertility Control before the Demographic Transition in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aliaksandr Amialchuk


    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Pervious literature has established the existence of deliberate non-parity-specific fertility control in pre-transitional populations. However, less focus has been given to the timing of its onset. In addition, previous studies focused on the changes in fertility in response to the local prices of grains, which may be endogenous. OBJECTIVE This paper studies the emergence and evolution of deliberate fertility control by investigating the link between child mortality and economic stress on the one hand and non-parity-specific birth control on the other, in historic German villages between 1700 and 1900. METHODS Birth histories from fourteen German villages (1700-1900 and rye price series are used in a micro-level event history analysis. The fertility response of second and higher-order births to the mortality of children over age two and exogenous fluctuations in rye price are used as measures of the extent of deliberate non-parity-specific birth control. RESULTS Over the course of the demographic transition, the effect of the death of children generally increases after controlling for the effect of the death of children less than two years old. The negative fertility response to high rye prices before and in the year immediately following the price change occurred only after 1800. CONCLUSIONS The replacement and insurance effects associated with child mortality generally increased before the demographic transition. The emergence of the negative effect of high rye prices on fertility after 1800 further supports the presence and evolution of deliberate non-parity-specific fertility control before the demographic transition.

  6. Bus rapid transit and development : policies and practices that affect development around transit. (United States)


    The development of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems is relatively recent in the United States, but several systems are in operation and more are advancing. There is a need for a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between land use and...

  7. The neolithic demographic transition in Europe: correlation with juvenility index supports interpretation of the summed calibrated radiocarbon date probability distribution (SCDPD as a valid demographic proxy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean S Downey

    Full Text Available Analysis of the proportion of immature skeletons recovered from European prehistoric cemeteries has shown that the transition to agriculture after 9000 BP triggered a long-term increase in human fertility. Here we compare the largest analysis of European cemeteries to date with an independent line of evidence, the summed calibrated date probability distribution of radiocarbon dates (SCDPD from archaeological sites. Our cemetery reanalysis confirms increased growth rates after the introduction of agriculture; the radiocarbon analysis also shows this pattern, and a significant correlation between both lines of evidence confirms the demographic validity of SCDPDs. We analyze the areal extent of Neolithic enclosures and demographic data from ethnographically known farming and foraging societies and we estimate differences in population levels at individual sites. We find little effect on the overall shape and precision of the SCDPD and we observe a small increase in the correlation with the cemetery trends. The SCDPD analysis supports the hypothesis that the transition to agriculture dramatically increased demographic growth, but it was followed within centuries by a general pattern of collapse even after accounting for higher settlement densities during the Neolithic. The study supports the unique contribution of SCDPDs as a valid demographic proxy for the demographic patterns associated with early agriculture.

  8. Demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa: how big will the economic dividend be? (United States)

    Eastwood, Robert; Lipton, Michael


    In mid-demographic-transition, many Asian countries enjoyed a large demographic 'dividend': extra economic growth owing to falling dependant/workforce ratios, or slower natural increase, or both. We estimate the dividend, 1985-2025, in sub-Saharan Africa and its populous countries. Dependency and natural increase peaked around 1985, 20 years after Asia. The UN projects an acceleration of the subsequent slow falls but disregards slowish declines in young-age mortality and thus, we argue, overestimates future fertility decline. Even if one accepts their projection, arithmetical and econometric evidence suggests an annual, if not total, dividend well below Asia's. The dividend arises more from falling dependency than reduced natural increase, and could be increased by accelerating the fertility decline (e.g., by reducing young-age mortality) or by employing a larger workforce productively. Any dividend from transition apart, low saving in much of Africa (unlike Asia) means that, given likely natural increase, current consumption per person is unsustainable because it depletes capital per person.

  9. Learning-by-doing, population pressure, and the theory of demographic transition. (United States)

    Strulik, H


    The long-term effects of two interdependent relations between economic growth and population growth are discussed. The empirical work of Boserup (1981) was utilized, which focused on rural, sparsely populated economies with low income per capita. According to the formulation of the population-push hypothesis, learning-by-doing effects in production lead to increasing returns to scale and, therefore, to a positive correlation between economic and population growth. In accordance with the theory of demographic transition, the population growth rate initially increases with rising income levels and then declines. The approach originating from Cigno (1984) modified the economic model, which allowed the establishment of two different stable equilibria. Regarding this relationship, the existence and stability of low-income and high-income equilibrium was shown in a neoclassical growth model. Under plausible conditions a demo-economic transition from the first to the second steady-state took place. The instability of the Malthusian steady-state is also possible when a country develops along a path of economic growth which is compatible with the demographic transition. In this context, learning means the application of new techniques of agrarian production. In developed economies with a stable population the learning-or-doing decision lead to accumulation of human capital and the invention of new technologies and goods. The interdependence of income-determined population growth and learning-by-doing may serve as an explanation for the weak and partly controversial empirical support for an overall correlation between income and population growth. The result yielded a meaningful interpretation of the population-push hypothesis, which is consistent with the empirical findings on the correlation between economic and population growth.

  10. Dimensions of Rational Decision-Making during the Demographic Transition; Aranjuez (Spain Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Reher


    Full Text Available A set of linked reproductive histories taken from the Spanish town of Aranjuez during the demographic transition is used to address key issues regarding reproductive change and reproductive choice. This paper builds on the existing literature and especially on the findings first shown in Reher & Sanz-Gimeno (2007 and in Van Poppel et al. (2012 where the links between childhood survival and reproductive decision-making were specified. This paper goes beyond the original ones in two important ways: (a the sex composition of the surviving sibset is included in the analysis and (b behavior is modeled by means of event history analysis. In these models, controls for the survival status of the previous child are introduced so as to distinguish between biological factors related to the cessation of breastfeeding and both short term (child replacement and more long-term reproductive strategies. The results offer convincing proof that couples were continually regulating their fertility in order to achieve reproductive goals both in terms of net fertility and of the sex composition of the resulting sibset. Here results show that both sexes were desired by parents but that lack of surviving males had greater influence on fertility behavior. As expected, controls for the survival status of the previous-born child were important though they did not diminish appreciably the overall effect of the number of surviving offspring. This article offers strong proof for the existence of active decision-making during the demographic transition and applies a method to model these behaviors over the full reproductive history of the couple.

  11. Climate change underlies global demographic, genetic, and cultural transitions in pre-Columbian southern Peru. (United States)

    Fehren-Schmitz, Lars; Haak, Wolfgang; Mächtle, Bertil; Masch, Florian; Llamas, Bastien; Cagigao, Elsa Tomasto; Sossna, Volker; Schittek, Karsten; Isla Cuadrado, Johny; Eitel, Bernhard; Reindel, Markus


    Several archaeological studies in the Central Andes have pointed at the temporal coincidence of climatic fluctuations (both long- and short-term) and episodes of cultural transition and changes of socioeconomic structures throughout the pre-Columbian period. Although most scholars explain the connection between environmental and cultural changes by the impact of climatic alterations on the capacities of the ecosystems inhabited by pre-Columbian cultures, direct evidence for assumed demographic consequences is missing so far. In this study, we address directly the impact of climatic changes on the spatial population dynamics of the Central Andes. We use a large dataset of pre-Columbian mitochondrial DNA sequences from the northern Rio Grande de Nasca drainage (RGND) in southern Peru, dating from ∼840 BC to 1450 AD. Alternative demographic scenarios are tested using Bayesian serial coalescent simulations in an approximate Bayesian computational framework. Our results indicate migrations from the lower coastal valleys of southern Peru into the Andean highlands coincident with increasing climate variability at the end of the Nasca culture at ∼640 AD. We also find support for a back-migration from the highlands to the coast coincident with droughts in the southeastern Andean highlands and improvement of climatic conditions on the coast after the decline of the Wari and Tiwanaku empires (∼1200 AD), leading to a genetic homogenization in the RGND and probably southern Peru as a whole.

  12. Kajian Implementasi Graph Database pada Rute Bus Rapid Transit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panji Wisnu Wirawan


    Full Text Available Bus Rapid Transit (BRT merupakan salah satu sarana transportasi publik yang memiliki rute perjalanan tertentu atau disebut sebagai koridor. Satu koridor BRT dengan koridor yang lain bukanlah koridor yang terpisah, melainkan saling terhubung. Dalam melakukan perjalanan, penumpang BRT boleh jadi melakukan perpindahan koridor melalui shelter. Informasi tersebut perlu didapatkan seorang calon penumpang sebelum melakukan perjalanan supaya tidak terjadi perpindahan koridor yang salah. Teknologi informasi memungkinkan representasi informasi pencarian koridor yang tepat ketika penumpang akan melakukan sebuah perjalanan, terlebih dengan hadirnya graph database. Graph Database memungkinkan representasi BRT yang baik karena sifat graph yang secara standar telah menunjukkan node dan relationship. Artikel ini mengkaji penerapan graph database untuk data pada BRT. Selain itu, artikel ini mendesain sebuah algoritma pencarian koridor BRT. Harapannya, algoritma tersebut dapat digunakan untuk membangun aplikasi yang memanfaatkan data pada graph database. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa graph database dapat diterapkan untuk data BRT dan algoritma yang dibangun dapat digunakan untuk menyajikan informasi rute sekaligus menyampaikan informasi perpindahan koridor.

  13. Value Orientations and the Second Demographic Transition (SDT in Northern, Western and Southern Europe: An Update

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available The core issue in this article is the empirical tracing of the connection between a variety of value orientations and the life course choices concerning living arrangements and family formation. The existence of such a connection is a crucial element in the so-called theory of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT. The underlying model is of a recursive nature and based on two effects: firstly, values-based self-selection of individuals into alternative living arrangement or household types, and secondly, event-based adaptation of values to the newly chosen household situation. Any testing of such a recursive model requires the use of panel data. Failing these, only "footprints" of the two effects can be derived and traced in cross-sectional data. Here, use is made of the latest round of the European Values Surveys of 1999-2000, mainly because no other source has such a large selection of value items. The comparison involves two Iberian countries, three western European ones, and two Scandinavian samples. The profiles of the value orientations are based on 80 items which cover a variety of dimensions (e.g. religiosity, ethics, civil morality, family values, social cohesion, expressive values, gender role orientations, trust in institutions, protest proneness and post-materialism, tolerance for minorities etc.. These are analysed according to eight different household positions based on the transitions to independent living, cohabitation and marriage, parenthood and union dissolution. Multiple Classification Analysis (MCA is used to control for confounding effects of other relevant covariates (age, gender, education, economic activity and stratification, urbanity. Subsequently, Correspondence Analysis is used to picture the proximities between the 80 value items and the eight household positions. Very similar value profiles according to household position are found for the three sets of countries, despite the fact that the onset of the SDT in


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Юрий Аркадьевич Григорьев


    Full Text Available From the general positions of population dynamics, the demographic policy is considered, its regional features in the East of Russia are designated. It is necessary to consolidate the positive traditions of the moral and legal norms of the society and the harmonious personality development. It takes their long-term translation for the improvement of the person himself, his family-marriage relations to support the forms of demographic behavior aimed at the expanded population reproduction. The solution of the numerous tasks of the demographic policy presupposes further scientific (theoretical and applied studies of the features of the socio-demographic and medico-demographic development of the Russian regions. Particular attention should be paid to the analysis of the main characteristics of the epidemiological transition, where mortality, as well as birth rate, is one of the main characteristics of the population reproduction. This will make it possible to define more precisely the prediction of the value of irretrievable losses with endogenous and exogenous determination, to estimate on this basis the reserves of increasing life expectancy through the measures of demographic policy.

  15. Successfulness of bus rapid transit systems in Asia. Ex-post evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kogdenko, Nadja


    SUMMARY Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) can be defined as “a bus-based mass transit system that delivers fast, comfortable, and cost-effective urban mobility”. It offers the opportunity to create a high-quality mass transit system at affordable costs, which is p

  16. Rapid transitions between defect configurations in a block copolymer melt. (United States)

    Tsarkova, Larisa; Knoll, Armin; Magerle, Robert


    With in situ scanning force microscopy, we image the ordering of cylindrical microdomains in a thin film of a diblock copolymer melt. Tracking the evolution of individual defects reveals elementary steps of defect motion via interfacial undulations and repetitive transitions between distinct defect configurations on a time scale of tens of seconds. The velocity of these transitions suggests a cooperative movement of clusters of chains. The activation energy for the opening/closing of a connection between two cylinders is estimated.

  17. Urban Quality vs single travel: the Personal Rapid Transit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmela Gargiulo


    Full Text Available The great increase in the demand for private mobility with the con­sequent macroscopic growth of channels to meet it, together with short-sighted policies of transport and urban development spread above all in Italy, has produced pollution, congestion and unlivability in the last fifty years.The hope of assuring the maximum individual freedom of travel to people living in consolidated urban centres, in addition to those living in the outskirts arisen and developed without any reasonable urban logic, still goes on producing congestion of vehicular traffic, conside­red, by the majority of citizens, the main cause of the deterioration of the quality of life in our cities.Indeed, also the most recent reports on environment in Italian cities show that the pollution levels are increasing in the big cities, although the news are full of very expensive projects, innovative solutions and unexpected goals continuously shown by public administrations. One of the main environmental detractors is car traffic, which has recently gained on public transport. unlike the previous period. Most of mobility policies implemented in our cities aims at reaching the modal balance by means of measures for controlling and managing the demand for mobility, for mitigating traffic and limiting circulation., such as the road pricing and the parking strategies; for developing and increasing public transport and not polluting means of transport, car sharing and car pooling.All of them have showed modest results both in terms of pollution reduction and vehicular traffic reduction. For over fifty years, mostly in the United States, the Personal Rapid Transit has been tested, a system of public transport trying to join two apparently incompatible factors: the possibility of assuring individual travels and the need for decreasing the levels of acoustic and air pol­lution as well as the congestion caused by private vehicular traffic. In Italy this system is still not well known

  18. Urban Quality vs Single Travel: the Personal Rapid Transit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmela Gargiulo


    Full Text Available The great increase in the demand for private mobility with theconsequent macroscopic growth of channels to meet it, togetherwith short-sighted policies of transport and urban developmentspread above all in Italy, has produced pollution, congestion andunlivability in the last fifty years.The hope of assuring the maximum individual freedom of travel topeople living in consolidated urban centres, in addition to thoseliving in the outskirts arisen and developed without any reasonableurban logic, still goes on producing congestion of vehicular traffic,considered, by the majority of citizens, the main cause of thedeterioration of the quality of life in our cities.Indeed, also the most recent reports on environment in Italiancities show that the pollution levels are increasing in the big cities,although the news are full of very expensive projects, innovativesolutions and unexpected goals continuously shown by publicadministrations. One of the main environmental detractors is cartraffic, which has recently gained on public transport. unlike theprevious period.Most of mobility policies implemented in our cities aims at reachingthe modal balance by means of measures for controlling and managingthe demand for mobility, for mitigating traffic and limiting circulation.,such as the road pricing and the parking strategies; for developingand increasing public transport and not polluting means of transport,car sharing and car pooling.All of them have showed modest results both in terms of pollutionreduction and vehicular traffic reduction.For over fifty years, mostly in the United States, the Personal RapidTransit has been tested, a system of public transport trying to jointwo apparently incompatible factors: the possibility of assuringindividual travels and the need for decreasing the levels of acousticand air pollution as well as the congestion caused by privatevehicular traffic.In Italy this system is still not well known despite the versatility ofits fields

  19. Rapid Communication: seniority changing transitions in yrast states ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Bhoomika Maheshwari


    Oct 26, 2017 ... Rapid Communication: v = 2 seniority changing ... has been extensively used to understand various system- .... states. This understanding supports the previous inter- ..... Financial support from the Ministry of Human Resource.

  20. Land use impacts of rapid transit: implications of recent experience. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knight, R.L.; Trygg, L.L.


    Evidence of land use impacts of recent major rapid transit improvements are reviewed and conclusions drawn concerning the extent and nature of such impacts and the conditions under which they have occurred. Transit improvements studied are primarily post-World War II in origin. American and Canadian examples are stressed, although European experience is teated briefly. Virtually all major modern American and Canadian rapid transit investments are included, covering conventional rapid rail, commuter rail, light rail and bus/busway. In addition to conclusions on general patterns of land use impact and causes, research recommendations and Federal policy implications are drawn.

  1. Factors Associated with Short-Term Transitions of Nondaily Smokers: Socio-demographic Characteristics and Other Tobacco Product Use (United States)

    Wang, Yingning; Sung, Hai-Yen; Yao, Tingting; Lightwood, James; Max, Wendy


    Aims To examine the transitions in smoking status among nondaily smokers who transitioned to daily or former smokers or remained as nondaily smokers over a 12-month period. We analyzed factors associated with these transitions, including the use of cigars and smokeless tobacco (SLT). Design Secondary data analyses using pooled data from the 2003, 2006/07 and 2010/11 Tobacco Use Supplements to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS). Setting USA Participants Self-respondents aged 18+ who have smoked for more than 5 years and were nondaily smokers 12 months before the interview (n = 13,673 or 14.5% of current smokers). Measurements Multinomial logistic regression model to determine the correlates of nondaily-to-daily, stable nondaily, and nondaily-to-former smoking transitions among nondaily smokers at baseline. The model controlled for socio-demographic factors and the use of cigars and SLT. Findings 2.6% of adults in our sample were nondaily smokers at baseline. Among these, 69.7% remained nondaily smokers (stable nondaily smokers), 18.4% became daily smokers (nondaily-to-daily smokers), and 11.9% quit smoking (nondaily-to-former smokers) after 12 months. The nondaily-to-daily vs. stable nondaily smoking transition was less likely among those who were aged 65+ (p=0.018), male (pnon-Hispanic Asian (p=0.032), without a college degree, widowed/divorced/separated (p=0.013) or never married (p=0.011), and current users of cigars (p=0.003) compared with the appropriate reference group. Conclusions While over two-thirds of nondaily smokers in the USA remain as such after 12 months, others become daily smokers or quit. The likelihood of remaining stable nondaily smokers and of transition from nondaily-to-daily and nondaily-to-former smokers is associated with socio-demographics factors and current use of cigars and smokeless tobacco. PMID:27886652

  2. Determinants of fertility in Rwanda in the context of a fertility transition: a secondary analysis of the 2010 Demographic and Health Survey. (United States)

    Ndahindwa, Vedaste; Kamanzi, Collins; Semakula, Muhammed; Abalikumwe, François; Hedt-Gauthier, Bethany; Thomson, Dana R


    Major improvements to Rwanda's health system, infrastructure, and social programs over the last decade have led to a rapid fertility transition unique from other African countries. The total fertility rate fell from 6.1 in 2005 to 4.6 in 2010, with a 3-fold increase in contraceptive usage. Despite this rapid national decline, many women still have large numbers of children. This study investigates predictors of fertility during this fertility transition to inform policies that improve individuals' reproductive health and guide national development. We used Poisson regression to separately model number of children born to ever married/cohabitated women (n = 8,309) and never married women (n = 1,220) age 15 to 49 based on 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey data. We used backward stepwise regression with a time offset to identify individual and household factors associated with woman's fertility level, accounting for sampling weights, clustering, and stratification. In ever married/cohabitating women, high fertility was significantly associated (p Rwanda's national fertility rate and support families to achieve their desired fertility. Strategies include policies and programs that promote delayed sexual debut via educational and economic opportunities for women, improved access to reproductive health information and services at schools and via health campaigns, and involvement of men in family planning decision making.

  3. Modeling and evaluation of characteristics for on-street Rapid Transit systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jonas Lohmann Elkjær; Landex, Alex


    to obtain the main objective of introducing a Rapid Transit System. to increase the number of passengers. Variations in the system characteristics have a direct impact on ridership. However, it is difficult to predict the impact of implementing or altering the characteristics. A Rapid Transit system should...... display sufficient service already in the planning phase. That is why pre-acquired knowledge of the impact of the characteristics on the system performance is valuable. Such knowledge could provide a firm basis for planning the service and operation of a Rapid Transit system. This article focuses....... It focuses on the following characteristics for Rapid Transit systems: rail factor, travel time, headway and capacity. It evaluates how the implementation and variation of these characteristics affected the ridership of a case project. It evaluates the magnitude of the impacts for the various characteristics...

  4. City of Fresno peer exchange on bus rapid transit : a TPCB peer exchange (United States)


    This report highlights key recommendations and best practices identified at the peer exchange on Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), held on May 21 and May 22, 2013, in Fresno, California. This event was sponsored by the Transportation Planning Capacity Buildin...

  5. San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) climate change adaptation assessment pilot. (United States)


    The objective of this pilot study was to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District : (BART) infrastructure and to develop and implement adaptation strategies against those impacts. Climate change haza...

  6. State and Federal project development procedures for bus rapid transit : managing differences and reducing implementation delays (United States)


    This report documents an investigation into the transportation project development process in the : context of the implementation of bus rapid transit systems on the State Highway System as well as such : systems being part of the Federal New Starts ...

  7. Telehealth Delivery of Rapid Syllable Transitions (ReST) Treatment for Childhood Apraxia of Speech (United States)

    Thomas, Donna C.; McCabe, Patricia; Ballard, Kirrie J.; Lincoln, Michelle


    Background: Rapid Syllable Transitions (ReST) treatment uses pseudo-word targets with varying lexical stress to target simultaneously articulation, prosodic accuracy and coarticulatory transitions in childhood apraxia of speech (CAS). The treatment is efficacious for the acquisition of imitated pseudo-words, and generalization of skill to…

  8. Understanding Students' Transition to High School: Demographic Variation and the Role of Supportive Relationships. (United States)

    Benner, Aprile D; Boyle, Alaina E; Bakhtiari, Farin


    The transition to high school is disruptive for many adolescents, yet little is known about the supportive relational processes that might attenuate the challenges students face as they move from middle to high school, particularly for students from more diverse backgrounds. Identifying potential buffers that protect youth across this critical educational transition is important for informing more effective support services for youth. In this study, we investigated how personal characteristics (gender, nativity, parent education level) and changes in support from family, friends, and school influenced changes in socioemotional adjustment and academic outcomes across the transition from middle to high school. The data were drawn from 252 students (50% females, 85% Latina/o). The results revealed declines in students' grades and increases in depressive symptoms and feelings of loneliness across the high school transition, with key variation by student nativity and gender. Additionally, stable/increasing friend support and school belonging were both linked to less socioemotional disruptions as students moved from middle to high school. Increasing/stable school belonging was also linked to increases in school engagement across the high school transition. These findings suggest that when high school transitions disrupt supportive relationships with important others in adolescents' lives, adolescents' socioemotional well-being and, to a lesser extent, their academic engagement are also compromised. Thus, in designing transition support activities, particularly for schools serving more low-income and race/ethnic minority youth, such efforts should strive to acclimate new high school students by providing inclusive, caring environments and positive connections with educators and peers.

  9. Demographic study of two population outbreaks of Elasmoderus wagenknechti (Liebermann) (Orthoptera: Tristiridae) in the transitional desert of Chile. (United States)

    Cepeda-Pizarro, Jorge; Vega, Solange; Vásquez, Hernán; Elgueta, Mario; Pizarro-Araya, Jaime


    Under certain environmental conditions, several species of grasshoppers inhabiting rangeland areas (e.g., inter-valleys) of the Chilean transitional desert can irrupt demographically. One of them is Elasmoderus wagenknechti (Liebermann), an endemic species. We studied two outbreaks occurred in 1996 and 1999. The objectives of the research were to (i) estimate some demographic parameters associated with the aforementioned events, and (ii) compare between them the population parameters. The parameters we studied were density (ind/m(2)), sexual proportion, female fertility (i.e., eggs/female), and the relationship eggs/female versus female size. Density (ind/m(2)) ranged from 0.2 to 0.4 in 1996 and from 0.5 to 0.6 in 1999. ANOVA-tests registered differences in density among study sites and between years. In some of the study sites, females were more abundant than males (e.g., Lomas del Sauce). Females fertility ranged from 27 to 39 eggs per female, with significant differences among sites in 1996 but not in 1999. For females of 30-50 mm body size, a linear relationship was detected between egg number/female and body size. It is concluded that the E. wagenknechti outbreaks are site-specific in the study area and that the demographic parameters examined show a high variability among sites and between events.

  10. Environmental impact assessment of bus rapid transit (BRT in the Metropolitan City of Tehran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Salehi


    Full Text Available Bus rapid transit is an innovative, high capacity, lower cost public transit solution in metropolitan cities. Idea is to dedicate lanes for quick and efficient transport of passengers to their destinations. In the present investigation the environmental impact assessment of bus rapid transit  in Tehran metropolitan city is brought out. For this purpose bus rapid transit Lane No. 10 is investigated. The bus rapid transit Lane No.10 is about 10 km in distance that moves up and down between Azadi and Simon Bolivar Squares. About 77500 passengers using 50 buses are transited per day in lane No. 10. These 50 buses cover a distance of 9600 km/day. The results of present study showed that about 6.5 million liters of fuel is saved annually. It should be pointed out that environmental costs are also reduced for about US$ 1.7 million/yr. The overall score of environmental impact assessment stands at +10 that is indicative of Lane No. 10 compatibility with the environmental considerations.

  11. Transit climate change adaptation assessment/asset management pilot for the Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority. (United States)


    Public transit agencies play an important role in the provision of safe, reliable, and cost-effective transportation for the communities they serve. With the growing intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes Irene and Sand...

  12. Maternal risk of breeding failure remained low throughout the demographic transitions in fertility and age at first reproduction in Finland.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianghua Liu

    Full Text Available Radical declines in fertility and postponement of first reproduction during the recent human demographic transitions have posed a challenge to interpreting human behaviour in evolutionary terms. This challenge has stemmed from insufficient evolutionary insight into individual reproductive decision-making and the rarity of datasets recording individual long-term reproductive success throughout the transitions. We use such data from about 2,000 Finnish mothers (first births: 1880s to 1970s to show that changes in the maternal risk of breeding failure (no offspring raised to adulthood underlay shifts in both fertility and first reproduction. With steady improvements in offspring survival, the expected fertility required to satisfy a low risk of breeding failure became lower and observed maternal fertility subsequently declined through an earlier age at last reproduction. Postponement of the age at first reproduction began when this risk approximated zero-even for mothers starting reproduction late. Interestingly, despite vastly differing fertility rates at different stages of the transitions, the number of offspring successfully raised to breeding per mother remained relatively constant over the period. Our results stress the importance of assessing the long-term success of reproductive strategies by including measures of offspring quality and suggest that avoidance of breeding failure may explain several key features of recent life-history shifts in industrialized societies.

  13. Maternal Risk of Breeding Failure Remained Low throughout the Demographic Transitions in Fertility and Age at First Reproduction in Finland (United States)

    Liu, Jianghua; Rotkirch, Anna; Lummaa, Virpi


    Radical declines in fertility and postponement of first reproduction during the recent human demographic transitions have posed a challenge to interpreting human behaviour in evolutionary terms. This challenge has stemmed from insufficient evolutionary insight into individual reproductive decision-making and the rarity of datasets recording individual long-term reproductive success throughout the transitions. We use such data from about 2,000 Finnish mothers (first births: 1880s to 1970s) to show that changes in the maternal risk of breeding failure (no offspring raised to adulthood) underlay shifts in both fertility and first reproduction. With steady improvements in offspring survival, the expected fertility required to satisfy a low risk of breeding failure became lower and observed maternal fertility subsequently declined through an earlier age at last reproduction. Postponement of the age at first reproduction began when this risk approximated zero–even for mothers starting reproduction late. Interestingly, despite vastly differing fertility rates at different stages of the transitions, the number of offspring successfully raised to breeding per mother remained relatively constant over the period. Our results stress the importance of assessing the long-term success of reproductive strategies by including measures of offspring quality and suggest that avoidance of breeding failure may explain several key features of recent life-history shifts in industrialized societies. PMID:22529952

  14. Rapid Deceleration-Driven Wetting Transition during Pendant Drop Deposition on Superhydrophobic Surfaces (United States)

    Kwon, Hyuk-Min; Paxson, Adam T.; Varanasi, Kripa K.; Patankar, Neelesh A.


    A hitherto unknown mechanism for wetting transition is reported. When a pendant drop settles upon deposition, there is a virtual “collision” where its center of gravity undergoes rapid deceleration. This induces a high water hammer-type pressure that causes wetting transition. A new phase diagram shows that both large and small droplets can transition to wetted states due to the new deceleration driven and the previously known Laplace mechanisms, respectively. It is explained how the attainment of a nonwetted Cassie-Baxter state is more restrictive than previously known.

  15. The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derek A T Cummings


    that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

  16. Smooth and Controlled Recovery Planning of Disruptions in Rapid Transit Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cadarso, L.; Marin, A.; Maroti, G.


    This paper studies the disruption management problem of rapid transit rail networks. We consider an integrated model for the recovery of the timetable and the rolling stock schedules. We propose a new approach to deal with large-scale disruptions: we limit the number of simultaneous schedule changes

  17. Sustainable energy for the future. Modelling transitions to renewable and clean energy in rapidly developing countries.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Urban, Frauke


    The main objective of this thesis is first to adapt energy models for the use in developing countries and second to model sustainable energy transitions and their effects in rapidly developing countries like China and India. The focus of this thesis is three-fold: a) to elaborate the differences

  18. Impacts of bus rapid transit (BRT) on surrounding residential property values : final report. (United States)


    As bus rapid transit (BRT) grows in popularity in the United States, a better understanding of the modes impacts on land uses and property values is needed. Economic theory suggests, and literature has shown, that people are willing to pay higher ...

  19. Mid-Pleistocene climate transition drives net mass loss from rapidly uplifting St. Elias mountains, Alaska

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gulick, S.P.S.; Jaeger, J.M.; Mix, A.C.; Asahi, H.; Bahlburg, H.; Belanger, C.L.; Berbel, G.B.B.; Childress, L.; Cowan, E.; Drab, L.; Forwick, M.; Fukumura, A.; Ge, S.; Gupta, S.M.; Kioka, A.; Konno, S.; LeVay, L.J.; Marz, C.; Matsuzaki, K.M.; McClymont, E.L.; Moy, C.; Muller, J.; Nakamura, A.; Ojima, T.; Ribeiro, F.R.; Ridgway, K.D.; Romero, O.E.; Slagle, A.L.; Stoner, J.S.; St-Onge, G.; Suto, I.; Walczak, M.D.; Worthington, L.L.; Bailey, I.; Enkelmann, E.; Reece, R.; Swartz, J.M.

    the onset of quasi-periodic (~100-ky) glacial cycles in the mid-Pleistocene climate transition (1.2–0.7 Ma). Since then, erosion and transport of material out of the orogen has outpaced tectonic influx by 50–80%. Such a rapid net mass loss explains apparent...

  20. Modeling commuter preferences for the proposed bus rapid transit in Dar-es-Salaam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nkurunziza, A.; Zuidgeest, M.H.P.; Brussel, M.J.G.; van Maarseveen, M.F.A.M.


    The paper analyzes individual commuter preferences towards the proposed bus rapid transit (BRT) system in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania. The objective of the survey was to identify how commuters perceive and value the proposed BRT service quality attributes. A stated preference survey of potential users

  1. 78 FR 26559 - Homeless Emergency Assistance and Rapid Transition to Housing: Rural Housing Stability Assistance... (United States)


    ... Homeless Emergency Assistance and Rapid Transition to Housing: Rural Housing Stability Assistance Program and Revisions to the Definition of ``Chronically Homeless'' Extension of Public Comment Only for Rural... proposed revisions to the definition of ``chronically homeless.'' This document announces that HUD is...

  2. Rapid Fatal Outcome from Pulmonary Arteries Compression in Transitional Cell Carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioannis A. Voutsadakis


    Full Text Available Transitional cell carcinoma of the urinary bladder is a malignancy that metastasizes frequently to lymph nodes including the mediastinal lymph nodes. This occurrence may produce symptoms due to compression of adjacent structures such as the superior vena cava syndrome or dysphagia from esophageal compression. We report the case of a 59-year-old man with metastatic transitional cell carcinoma for whom mediastinal lymphadenopathy led to pulmonary artery compression and a rapidly fatal outcome. This rare occurrence has to be distinguished from pulmonary embolism, a much more frequent event in cancer patients, in order that proper and prompt treatment be initiated.

  3. Individuation in Slovene emerging adults: its associations with demographics, transitional markers, achieved criteria for adulthood, and life satisfaction. (United States)

    Zupančič, Maja; Komidar, Luka; Levpušček, Melita Puklek


    The study investigated associations of Slovene emerging adults' age, gender, living situation, romantic relationship, and employment status with aspects of individuation in relation to mother and father. Controlling for demographic variables and transitional markers of adulthood, we further explored the contribution of individuation measures to individuals' perceptions of achieved criteria for adulthood and life satisfaction. The participants provided self-reports on the Individuation Test for Emerging Adults, the Satisfaction With Life Scale, and the list of Achieved Criteria for Adulthood. Age and living out of parental home were positively associated with self-reliance in relation to both parents, whereas female gender was related to higher levels of connectedness and seeking parental support. Along with age and involvement in a romantic relationship, connectedness and self-reliance predicted adulthood criteria attainment and life satisfaction. The results support the models of individuation that emphasize growing autonomy and retaining connectedness to parents as pathways towards personal adjustments. Copyright © 2014 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Rapid intestinal transit as a primary cause of severe chronic diarrhea in patients with amyloidosis. (United States)

    Guirl, Michael J; Högenauer, Christoph; Santa Ana, Carol A; Porter, Jack L; Little, Katherine H; Stone, Marvin J; Fordtran, John S


    The cause of severe diarrhea in patients with systemic amyloidosis is obscure. We therefore performed pathophysiological studies in three such patients in an effort to determine the mechanism of amyloid diarrhea. Epithelial cell absorption rate of electrolytes was measured during steady state GI perfusion of a saline-mannitol solution. GI transit time of PEG and absorption of radiolabeled bile acid were measured simultaneously while subjects ingested three meals per day. To obtain a diarrhea control group for transit time and bile acid absorption, normal subjects were studied when they had diarrhea caused by ingestion of Milk of Magnesia (MOM). Diarrhea could not be explained by malabsorption of ingested nutrients, bacterial overgrowth, bile acid malabsorption, or epithelial cell malabsorption of electrolytes. However, 25% of polyethylene glycol (PEG) ingested with a standard meal was recovered in stool in 45 min, which is 10 times faster than in normal subjects with equally severe diarrhea caused by ingestion of MOM. All of the patients had autonomic neuropathy that remained unrecognized for 15-36 months after onset of chronic diarrhea; it seems likely that this was the cause of rapid transit. Severe chronic diarrhea in three patients with systemic amyloidosis was mediated by extremely rapid transit of chyme and digestive secretions through the intestine.

  5. The Great Transformations of Tibet and Xinjiang: a comparative analysis of rapid labour transitions in times of rapid growth in two contested minority regions of China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.M. Fischer (Andrew Martín)


    textabstractRapid growth since the mid-1990s in the Tibetan and Uyghur areas in Western China has been associated with the rapid transition of the local (mostly Tibetan and Uyghur) labour forces out of the primary sector (mostly farming and herding) and into the tertiary sector (services). The TAR,

  6. Rapidly increasing body mass index among children, adolescents and young adults in a transitioning population, South Africa, 2008-15. (United States)

    Sartorius, B; Sartorius, K; Taylor, M; Aagaard-Hansen, J; Dukhi, N; Day, C; Ndlovu, N; Slotow, R; Hofman, K


    There is a global epidemic of overweight and obesity; however, this rate of increase is even greater in some low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). South Africa (SA) is undergoing rapid socioeconomic and demographic changes that have triggered a rapid nutrition transition. The paper focuses on the recent rate of change of body mass index (BMI) among children, adolescents and young adults, further stratified by key sociodemographic factors. We analysed mean BMI of 28 247 individuals (including children) from 7301 households by age and year, from anthropometric data from four national cross-sectional (repeated panel) surveys using non-linear fitted curves and associated 95% confidence intervals. From 2008 to 2015, there was rapid rise in mean BMI in the 6-25 age band, with the highest risk (3-4+ BMI unit increase) among children aged 8-10 years. The increase was largely among females in urban areas and of middle-high socioeconomic standing. Prominent gains were also observed in certain rural areas, with extensive geographical heterogeneity across the country. We have demonstrated a major deviation from the current understanding of patterns of BMI increase, with a rate of increase substantially greater in the developing world context compared with the global pattern. This population-wide effect will have major consequences for national development as the epidemic of related non-communicable disease unfolds, and will overtax the national health care budget. Our refined understanding highlights that risks are further compounded for certain groups/places, and emphasizes that urgent geographical and population-targeted interventions are necessary. These interventions could include a sugar tax, clearer food labelling, revised school feeding programmes and mandatory bans on unhealthy food marketing to children.The scenario unfolding in South Africa will likely be followed in other LMICs. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the

  7. Diversity as valued and troubled: social identities and demographic categories in understandings of rapid urban growth in Vanuatu. (United States)

    Widmer, Alexandra


    This paper deals with the simultaneous mainstreaming and diversification of ni-Vanuatu social categories associated with the ways in which population growth is understood as a possible crisis in both demographic knowledge and everyday ni-Vanuatu knowledge. The author is interested in understanding the downplaying but primarily the amplification of difference with respect to place, generation and gender identities. The relationship between reproduction, social reproduction and the multiple meanings of modernity is at issue. In the expert knowledge of demography that proffers advice for the ni-Vanuatu state, it is the lack of modern development - in the form of adequate biomedical birth control, western education, and the equality of women - that is the implicit cause of population growth. Yet, many ni-Vanuatu see population growth as tied to the troubles that arise from the dilution of traditional social forms: there is too much modernity. In both demographic and ni-Vanuatu everyday narrations of the potential population crisis, diversification and mainstreaming take place and vulnerabilities are produced.

  8. Developing a Natural Gas-Powered Bus Rapid Transit Service: A Case Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitchell, G.


    The Roaring Fork Transit Authority (RFTA) and its VelociRFTA Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) program are unique in many ways. For example, VelociRFTA was the first rural BRT system in the United States and the operational environment of the VelociRFTA BRT is one of the most severe in the country, with extreme winter temperatures and altitudes close to 8,000 feet. RFTA viewed high altitude operation as the most challenging characteristic when it began considering the use of natural gas. RFTA is the second-largest public transit system in Colorado behind Denver's Regional Transportation District (RTD), and it is one of the largest rural public transit systems in the country. In 2013, RFTA accepted delivery of 22 new compressed natural gas (CNG) buses that went into service after completion of maintenance and refueling facilities earlier that year. This paper examines the lessons learned from RFTA's experience of investigating--and ultimately choosing--CNG for their new BRT program and focuses on the unique environment of RFTA's BRT application; the decision process to include CNG fueling in the project; unforeseen difficulties encountered in the operation of CNG buses; public perception; cost comparison to competing fuels; and considerations for indoor fueling facilities and project funding.

  9. Developing a Natural Gas-Powered Bus Rapid Transit Service. A Case Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitchell, George [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)


    The Roaring Fork Transit Authority (RFTA) and its VelociRFTA Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) program are unique in many ways. For example, VelociRFTA was the first rural BRT system in the United States and the operational environment of the VelociRFTA BRT is one of the most severe in the country, with extreme winter temperatures and altitudes close to 8,000 feet. RFTA viewed high altitude operation as the most challenging characteristic when it began considering the use of natural gas. RFTA is the second-largest public transit system in Colorado behind Denver's Regional Transportation District (RTD), and it is one of the largest rural public transit systems in the country. In 2013, RFTA accepted delivery of 22 new compressed natural gas (CNG) buses that went into service after completion of maintenance and refueling facilities earlier that year. This paper examines the lessons learned from RFTA's experience of investigating--and ultimately choosing--CNG for their new BRT program and focuses on the unique environment of RFTA's BRT application; the decision process to include CNG fueling in the project; unforeseen difficulties encountered in the operation of CNG buses; public perception; cost comparison to competing fuels; and considerations for indoor fueling facilities and project funding.

  10. The Impacts of the Mass Rapid Transit System on Household Car Ownership in Taipei

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Hsiu Huang


    Full Text Available This paper investigates the impacts of Taipei Mass Rapid Transit (MRT system on household car ownership and analyses how socioeconomic characteristics affect household car ownership. We employ a difference-in-difference (DID strategy integrated with generalized Poisson regression models to examine the effects of MRT. The results are as follows: first, the establishment of Taipei MRT significantly reduced the level of household car ownership. Expanding the network of MRT system can be a feasible policy to control car ownership. Second, the levels of household car ownership are related to household’s socioeconomic characteristics. Third, households with high dependence on public transport own fewer cars after Taipei MRT began operation. Hence, the traffic authority should adopt more effective methods to encourage public transit use in order to decrease household car ownership.

  11. Changes of marital behavior and family patterns in post-socialist countries: Delayed, incomplete or specific second demographic transition?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Mina


    Full Text Available The paper starts by questioning the theory of second demographic transition (SDT and its universal relevance in the field of marriage behavior and family organization in low fertility context, arguing for more differentiated approaches. With an aim to illustrate the contextual specifics of post-socialist countries in general and of Serbia in particular, the author claims that analyzed changes have not just been delayed or incomplete in comparison to more developed European countries, but shaped by specific modernization processes, which led to rationally developed strategies in overcoming structural risks, although, without ideational changes typical to the theory of SDT. Slow changes in marital behavior and family organization in Serbia are illustrated in recent sociological (empirical research findings. The perceived changes are linked to specific structural risks (war, slow transformation and enduring economic hardships, weak state and low trust in institutions, etc and value characteristics (persistence of materialism and traditionalism, but with increasing ambivalence. The connection between structural and ideational changes is considered through social stratification variable by relying on Coale's model on necessary preconditions for behavioral changes as well as on social deprivation concept. Having in mind upper social strata (more educated and better off, the value changes precede the behavioral that are adapted to economic uncertainty, which still force more traditional marital and family patterns. Therefore, there is a rank of different options, from extended family (for a short period at the beginning of marriage or after divorce to separated leaving (of married partners in parental households (due to refusing the extended family option thus creating quite specific "living apart together" form, combined with dominant strategy of prolonging the marriage. Hence, for upper social strata, marriage is still a universal but negotiable

  12. Dealing with the Empty Vehicle Movements in Personal Rapid Transit System with Batteries Constraints in a Dynamic Context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ezzeddine Fatnassi


    Full Text Available The Personal Rapid Transit is a new emergent transportation tool. It relies on using a set of small driverless electric vehicles to transport people on demand. Because of the specific on-demand characteristic of the Personal Rapid Transit system, many Personal Rapid Transit vehicles would move empty which results in a high level of wasted transportation capacity. This is enhanced while using Personal Rapid Transit vehicles with limited electric battery capacity. This paper deals with this problem in a real time context while minimizing the set of empty vehicle movements. First, a mathematical formulation to benchmark waiting time of passengers in Personal Rapid Transit systems is proposed. Then, a simulation model that captures the main features of the Personal Rapid Transit system is developed. A decision support system which integrates several real time solution strategies as well as a simulation module is proposed. Our dispatching strategies are evaluated and compared based on our simulation model. The efficiency of our method is tested through extensive test studies.

  13. Preferensi Konsumen Terhadap Transportasi Publik (Studi Kasus Bus Rapid Transit (BRT Kota Semarang

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ichwinsyah Azali


    Abstract Semarang as the capital city of Central Java Province has a population density of 4.269 per square kilometer in 2015. Due to high population density, communities’ mobility will also be increasing. Government arranged the policy related to traffic and public transportation in the Law Number 22 Year 2009 article 158 paragraph 1, the government of Semarang City has guaranteed the availability of road-based transportation in Urban Areas by providing public transportation namely Bus Rapid Transit (BRT Trans Semarang. This research aims to analyze communities’ preference in terms of price, convenience, reliability, accessibility, and safety toward the possibility of BRT and Non BRT transportation modes selection. This research uses 100 respondents by Purposive Sampling. Binary Logistic Regression model is applied to determine the effect of independent variable towards dependent variable of BRT and Non BRT transportation modes selection. The result of this research indicated that BRT and Non BRT transportation modes selection in Semarang City are dominated by 82 respondents of BRT users and 18 respondents of Non BRT users. BRT and Non BRT transportation modes selection are affected by the factor of price, convenience, reliability, accessibility, and safety. Keywords: Modes selection, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT Trans Semarang, Principal Component Analysis, Binary Logistic Regression.

  14. Optimizing Performance of at-grade Intersection with Bus Rapid Transit Corridor and Heterogeneous Traffic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hemant Kumar Sharma


    Full Text Available Bus Rapid Transit (BRT has emerged as a preferred mode of public transport in various countries all over the world for its cost effectiveness in construction as well as in operation and maintenance. The rapid transit feature of BRT is seen as a solution to many traffic problems in these countries. However, in developing countries like India, the right -of-way for most of the roads is restricted and traffic is heterogeneous in nature. Provision of BRT in existing right -of-way reduces the capacity available for other motorized traffic. As the buses travel with a certain frequency on dedicated bus- ways, the dedicated corridor remains unused for most of the period when other traffic on motorized vehicle (MV lanes suffers from congestion. The problem gets severe at intersections. However, if buses are operated in mixed traffic it is no more rapid transit. Hence, a solution is required to address this problem and optimize the performance of traffic as a whole. This paper presents the effect if dedicated bus-ways end at a reasonable distance before the stop line at a busy signalized at-grade intersection, and bus lanes (beyond that are made available to all the motorized vehicular traffic (heterogeneous traffic at intersection. The performance evaluation is done in terms of average queue length, maximum queue length, average delay time per vehicle, vehicle throughput, average speed in network and emission of Carbon monoxide CO, mono-nitrogen oxides NOx and Volatile organic compounds (VOC. It is observed that availability of bus lanes to other motorized traffic for a reasonable distance before intersection considerably reduces the average queue length, maximum queue length, average delay time per vehicle and emission per vehicle, while there is an increase in vehicle throughput and average speed of all the vehicles in the network. Thus it results in reduction of congestion and performance enhancement of at-grade intersections and network. Results of

  15. A study of riders' noise exposure on Bay Area Rapid Transit trains. (United States)

    Dinno, Alexis; Powell, Cynthia; King, Margaret Mary


    Excessive noise exposure may present a hazard to hearing, cardiovascular, and psychosomatic health. Mass transit systems, such as the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system, are potential sources of excessive noise. The purpose of this study was to characterize transit noise and riders' exposure to noise on the BART system using three dosimetry metrics. We made 268 dosimetry measurements on a convenience sample of 51 line segments. Dosimetry measures were modeled using linear and nonlinear multiple regression as functions of average velocity, tunnel enclosure, flooring, and wet weather conditions and presented visually on a map of the BART system. This study provides evidence of levels of hazardous levels of noise exposure in all three dosimetry metrics. L(eq) and L(max) measures indicate exposures well above ranges associated with increased cardiovascular and psychosomatic health risks in the published literature. L(peak) indicate acute exposures hazardous to adult hearing on about 1% of line segment rides and acute exposures hazardous to child hearing on about 2% of such rides. The noise to which passengers are exposed may be due to train-specific conditions (velocity and flooring), but also to rail conditions (velocity and tunnels). These findings may point at possible remediation (revised speed limits on longer segments and those segments enclosed by tunnels). The findings also suggest that specific rail segments could be improved for noise.

  16. The impacts of rapid demographic transition on family structure and income inequality in Brazil, 1981-2011. (United States)

    Maia, Alexandre Gori; Sakamoto, Camila Strobl


    This study analysed the impact of changing family structure on income distribution. Specifically, it analysed how changes in the proportions of different categories of family in the population contributed to increases in the income of the richest and poorest social strata in Brazil, and the consequent impacts on income inequality. Rural and urban families were compared in order to understand how these dynamics had different impacts on more developed (urban) and less developed (rural) areas. The results emphasize how changes observed in family structure are more pronounced among the richest families, contributing to an increase in (i) the income of the richest families and (ii) income inequality between the richest and poorest families, as well as between urban and rural areas.

  17. Relationships of working conditions, health problems and vehicle accidents in bus rapid transit (BRT) drivers. (United States)

    Gómez-Ortiz, Viviola; Cendales, Boris; Useche, Sergio; Bocarejo, Juan P


    The aim of this study was to estimate accident risk rates and mental health of bus rapid transit (BRT) drivers based on psychosocial risk factors at work leading to increased stress and health problems. A cross-sectional research design utilized a self-report questionnaire completed by 524 BRT drivers. Some working conditions of BRT drivers (lack of social support from supervisors and perceived potential for risk) may partially explain Bogota's BRT drivers' involvement in road accidents. Drivers' mental health problems were associated with higher job strain, less support from co-workers, fewer rewards and greater signal conflict while driving. To prevent bus accidents, supervisory support may need to be increased. To prevent mental health problems, other interventions may be needed such as reducing demands, increasing job control, reducing amount of incoming information, simplifying current signals, making signals less contradictory, and revising rewards. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Rapid solidification growth mode transitions in Al-Si alloys by dynamic transmission electron microscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roehling, John D.; Coughlin, Daniel R.; Gibbs, John W.; Baldwin, J. Kevin; Mertens, James C.E.; Campbell, Geoffrey H.; Clarke, Amy J.; McKeown, Joseph T.


    In situ dynamic transmission electron microscope (DTEM) imaging of Al-Si thin-film alloys was performed to investigate rapid solidification behavior. Solidification of alloys with compositions from 1 to 15 atomic percent Si was imaged during pulsed laser melting and subsequent solidification. Solely α-Al solidification was observed in Al-1Si and Al-3Si alloys, and solely kinetically modified eutectic growth was observed in Al-6Si and Al-9Si alloys. A transition in the solidification mode in eutectic and hypereutectic alloys (Al-12Si and Al-15Si) from nucleated α-Al dendrites at lower solidification velocities to planar eutectic growth at higher solidification velocities was observed, departing from trends previously seen in laser-track melting experiments. Comparisons of the growth modes and corresponding velocities are compared with previous solidification models, and implications regarding the models are discussed.

  19. Transition-zone observations of rapid flare events as observed by OSO-8 (United States)

    Lites, B. W.


    The rapid dissipation of flare energy has been observed in the transition-zone line of C IV at 1548.2 A using the University of Colorado spectrometer aboard OSO-8. Impulsive brightenings have been resolved with characteristic rise times as low as 3.5s. One event is analyzed in detail, and it is inferred that the electron density is greater than 2 x 10 to the 11th/cu cm at a temperature of 60,000 K, and that the flare energy is deposited at a rate of 2 ergs/cu cm per sec or greater. The temporal behavior of the intensity at the center of the C IV line is consistent with a nonequilibrium ionization of C III through C V. If this event is a result of the multiple tearing mode instability as the primary energy release mechanism, then the observations indicate a preflare magnetic field of about 175 G.

  20. Mechanism-based model of a mass rapid transit system: A perspective (United States)

    Legara, Erika Fille; Khoon, Lee Kee; Guang, Hung Gih; Monterola, Christopher


    In this paper, we discuss our findings on the spatiotemporal dynamics within the mass rapid transit (MRT) system of Singapore. We show that the trip distribution of Origin-Destination (OD) station pairs follows a power-law, implying the existence of critical OD pairs. We then present and discuss the empirically validated agent-based model (ABM) we have developed. The model allows recreation of the observed statistics and the setting up of various scenarios and their effects on the system, such as increasing the commuter population and the propagation of travel delays within the transportation network. The proposed model further enables identification of bottlenecks that can cause the MRT to break down, and consequently provide foresight on how such disruptions can possibly be managed. This can potentially provide a versatile approach for transport planners and government regulators to make quantifiable policies that optimally balance cost and convenience as a function of the number of the commuting public.

  1. The Rapid Transit System That Achieves Higher Performance with Lower Life-Cycle Costs (United States)

    Sone, Satoru; Takagi, Ryo

    In the age of traction system made of inverter and ac traction motors, distributed traction system with pure electric brake of regenerative mode has been recognised very advantageous. This paper proposes a new system as the lowest life-cycle cost system for high performance rapid transit, a new architecture and optimum parameters of power feeding system, and a new running method of trains. In Japan, these components of this proposal, i.e. pure electric brake and various countermeasures of reducing loss of regeneration have been already popular but not as yet the new running method for better utilisation of the equipment and for lower life-cycle cost. One example of what are proposed in this paper will be made as Tsukuba Express, which is under construction as the most modern commuter railway in Greater Tokyo area.

  2. Implementation of Bus Rapid Transit in Copenhagen: A Mesoscopic Model Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingvardson, Jesper Bláfoss; Kornerup Jensen, Jonas


    Bus Rapid Transit(BRT) has shown to be an efficient and cost-effective mode of public transport, and has gained popularity in many cities around the world.To optimise the operations and infrastructure it is advantageous to deploy transportmodels. However, microscopic models are very inefficient...... upgrades (busways and enhanced stations) ensure a reduction to traveltime whereas no improvements to reliability occur. Upgrades to technology and serviceplanning (pre-paid fare collection, boarding and alighting from all doors, special BRT vehicles, ITS, and active bus control) ensure an increase...... in service reliability whereas only small reductions to travel time are observed. By combining all BRT elements it is possible to obtain synergies where the improved reliability due to planning and technology elements makes it possible to utilise the infrastructure optimally. Hence, it is possible...

  3. The Evolving Demographic and Health Transition in Four Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Evidence from Four Sites in the INDEPTH Network of Longitudinal Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayaga Bawah

    Full Text Available This paper contributes evidence documenting the continued decline in all-cause mortality and changes in the cause of death distribution over time in four developing country populations in Africa and Asia. We present levels and trends in age-specific mortality (all-cause and cause-specific from four demographic surveillance sites: Agincourt (South Africa, Navrongo (Ghana in Africa; Filabavi (Vietnam, Matlab (Bangladesh in Asia. We model mortality using discrete time event history analysis. This study illustrates how data from INDEPTH Network centers can provide a comparative, longitudinal examination of mortality patterns and the epidemiological transition. Health care systems need to be reconfigured to deal simultaneously with continuing challenges of communicable disease and increasing incidence of non-communicable diseases that require long-term care. In populations with endemic HIV, long-term care of HIV patients on ART will add to the chronic care needs of the community.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thaned SATIENNAM


    Full Text Available Bus Rapid Transit (BRT has increasingly become an attractive urban transit alternative in many Asian developing cities due to its cost-effective and flexible implementation. However, it still seems to be difficult to introduce BRT to these cities because almost all of their city structures have been developed under solely a road transport development city plan and weakness of land use control gives rise to many problems, such as urban sprawl, traffic congestion, and air pollution. The purpose of this study was to introduce several strategies to support BRT implementation in Asian developing cities, such as a strategy to appropriately integrate the paratransit system into BRT system as being a feeder along a BRT corridor to supply demand. These proposed strategies were evaluated by applying demand forecasting and emission models to the BRT project plan of Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA in Thailand. It was demonstrated that the proposed strategies could effectively improve the BRT ridership, traffic conditions, and air pollution emission of the entire system in Bangkok. This study could be further extended to include strategy recommendation if a BRT system were to be introduced to other Asian developing cities.

  5. Does rapid urbanization aggravate health disparities? Reflections on the epidemiological transition in Pune, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mareike Kroll


    Full Text Available Background: Rapid urbanization in low- and middle-income countries reinforces risk and epidemiological transition in urban societies, which are characterized by high socioeconomic gradients. Limited availability of disaggregated morbidity data in these settings impedes research on epidemiological profiles of different population subgroups. Objective: The study aimed to analyze the epidemiological transition in the emerging megacity of Pune with respect to changing morbidity and mortality patterns, also taking into consideration health disparities among different socioeconomic groups. Design: A mixed-methods approach was used, comprising secondary analysis of mortality data, a survey among 900 households in six neighborhoods with different socioeconomic profiles, 46 in-depth interviews with laypeople, and expert interviews with 37 health care providers and 22 other health care workers. Results: The mortality data account for an epidemiological transition with an increasing number of deaths due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs in Pune. The share of deaths due to infectious and parasitic diseases remained nearly constant, though the cause of deaths changed considerably within this group. The survey data and expert interviews indicated a slightly higher prevalence of diabetes and hypertension among higher socioeconomic groups, but a higher incidence and more frequent complications and comorbidities in lower socioeconomic groups. Although the self-reported morbidity for malaria, gastroenteritis, and tuberculosis did not show a socioeconomic pattern, experts estimated the prevalence in lower socioeconomic groups to be higher, though all groups in Pune would be affected. Conclusions: The rising burden of NCDs among all socioeconomic groups and the concurrent persistence of communicable diseases pose a major challenge for public health. Improvement of urban health requires a stronger focus on health promotion and disease prevention for all

  6. Rapid, all-optical crystal orientation imaging of two-dimensional transition metal dichalcogenide monolayers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, Sabrina N.; Zhai, Yao; Zande, Arend M. van der; O'Brien, Kevin; Huang, Pinshane Y.; Chenet, Daniel A.; Hone, James C.; Zhang, Xiang; Yin, Xiaobo


    Two-dimensional (2D) atomic materials such as graphene and transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDCs) have attracted significant research and industrial interest for their electronic, optical, mechanical, and thermal properties. While large-area crystal growth techniques such as chemical vapor deposition have been demonstrated, the presence of grain boundaries and orientation of grains arising in such growths substantially affect the physical properties of the materials. There is currently no scalable characterization method for determining these boundaries and orientations over a large sample area. We here present a second-harmonic generation based microscopy technique for rapidly mapping grain orientations and boundaries of 2D TMDCs. We experimentally demonstrate the capability to map large samples to an angular resolution of ±1° with minimal sample preparation and without involved analysis. A direct comparison of the all-optical grain orientation maps against results obtained by diffraction-filtered dark-field transmission electron microscopy plus selected-area electron diffraction on identical TMDC samples is provided. This rapid and accurate tool should enable large-area characterization of TMDC samples for expedited studies of grain boundary effects and the efficient characterization of industrial-scale production techniques

  7. Are rapid transitions between invasive and native species caused by alternative stable states, and does it matter? (United States)

    Hansen, Gretchen J A; Ives, Anthony R; Vander Zanden, M Jake; Carpenter, Stephen R


    Rapid transitions in ecosystem structure, or regime shifts, are a hallmark of alternative stable states (ASS). However, regime shifts can occur even when feedbacks are not strong enough to cause ASS. We investigated the potential for ASS to explain transitions between dominance of an invasive species, rusty crayfish (Orconectes rusticus), and native sunfishes (Lepomis spp.) in northern Wisconsin (USA) lakes. A rapid transition from Lepomis to rusty crayfish dominance occurred as rusty crayfish invaded Trout Lake, and the reverse transition resulted from an eight-year experimental removal of rusty crayfish from Sparkling Lake. We fit a stage-structured population model of species interactions to 31 years of time-series data from each lake. The model identified water level as an important driver, with drought conditions reducing rusty crayfish recruitment and allowing Lepomis dominance. The maximum-likelihood parameter estimates of the negative interaction between rusty crayfish and Lepomis led to ASS in the model, where each species was capable of excluding the other within a narrow range of environmental conditions. However, uncertainty in parameter estimates made it impossible to exclude the potential that rapid transitions were caused by a simpler threshold response lacking alternative equilibria. Simulated forward and backward transitions between species dominance occurred at different environmental conditions (i.e., hysteresis), even when the parameters used for simulation did not predict ASS as a result of slow species responses to environmental drivers. Thus, ASS are possible, but by no means certain, explanations for rapid transitions in this system, and our results highlight the difficulties associated with distinguishing ASS from other types of threshold responses. However, whether regime shifts are caused by ASS may be relatively unimportant in this system, as the range of conditions over which transitions occur is narrow, and under most conditions, the

  8. Status and future transition of rapid urbanizing landscape in central Western Ghats - CA based approach (United States)

    Bharath, S..; Rajan, K. S.; Ramachandra, T. V.


    The land use changes in forested landscape are highly complex and dynamic, affected by the natural, socio-economic, cultural, political and other factors. The remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) techniques coupled with multi-criteria evaluation functions such as Markov-cellular automata (CA-Markov) model helps in analysing intensity, extent and future forecasting of human activities affecting the terrestrial biosphere. Karwar taluk of Central Western Ghats in Karnataka state, India has seen rapid transitions in its forest cover due to various anthropogenic activities, primarily driven by major industrial activities. A study based on Landsat and IRS derived data along with CA-Markov method has helped in characterizing the patterns and trends of land use changes over a period of 2004-2013, expected transitions was predicted for a set of scenarios through 2013-2022. The analysis reveals the loss of pristine forest cover from 75.51% to 67.36% (1973 to 2013) and increase in agriculture land as well as built-up area of 8.65% (2013), causing impact on local flora and fauna. The other factors driving these changes are the aggregated level of demand for land, local and regional effects of land use activities such as deforestation, improper practices in expansion of agriculture and infrastructure development, deteriorating natural resources availability. The spatio temporal models helped in visualizing on-going changes apart from prediction of likely changes. The CA-Markov based analysis provides us insights into the localized changes impacting these regions and can be useful in developing appropriate mitigation management approaches based on the modelled future impacts. This necessitates immediate measures for minimizing the future impacts.

  9. Work stress, fatigue and risk behaviors at the wheel: Data to assess the association between psychosocial work factors and risky driving on Bus Rapid Transit drivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Useche


    Full Text Available This Data in Brief (DiB article presents a hierarchical multiple linear regression model that examine the associations between psychosocial work factors and risk behaviors at the wheel in Bus Rapid Transit (BRT drivers (n=524. The data were collected using a structured self-administrable questionnaire made of measurements of wok stress (job strain and effort- reward imbalance, fatigue (need for recovery and chronic fatigue, psychological distress and demographics (professional driving experience, hours driven per day and days working per week. The data contains 4 parts: descriptive statistics, bivariate correlations between the study variables and a regression model predicting risk behaviors at the wheel and the entire study dataset. For further information, it is convenient to read the full article entitled “Stress-related Psychosocial Factors at Work, Fatigue, and Risky Driving Behavior in Bus Rapid Transport (BRT Drivers”, published in Accident Analysis & Prevention. Keywords: Professional drivers, Work stress, Fatigue, Psychological distress, Risk behaviors, Bus Rapid Transport, BRT

  10. The design evaluation of inductive power-transformer for personal rapid transit by measuring impedance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Kyung-Hee; Lee, Byung-Song; Baek, Soo-Hyun


    The contact-less inductive power transformer (IPT) uses the principle of electromagnetic induction. The concept of the IPT for vehicles such as the personal rapid transit (PRT) system is proposed and some suggestions for power collector design of IPT to improve power transfer performance are presented in this paper. The aim of this paper is to recommend the concept of IPT for vehicles such as the PRT system and also to present some propositions for the power collector design of the IPT, which is to improve the power transfer performance. Generally, there are diverse methods to evaluate transfer performance of the traditional transformers. Although the principle of IPT is similar to that of the general transformer, it is impossible to apply the methods directly because of large air gap. The system must be compensated by resonant circuit due to the large air gap. Consequently, it is difficult to apply numerical formulas to the magnetic design of IPT systems. This paper investigates the magnetic design of a PRT system using three-dimensional magnetic modeling and measurements of the pick-up coupling coefficient and its impedances. In addition, how the use of Litz wire and leakage inductance is related will be observed through experiment and simulation

  11. Critical capacity, travel time delays and travel time distribution of rapid mass transit systems (United States)

    Legara, Erika Fille; Monterola, Christopher; Lee, Kee Khoon; Hung, Gih Guang


    We set up a mechanistic agent-based model of a rapid mass transit system. Using empirical data from Singapore's unidentifiable smart fare card, we validate our model by reconstructing actual travel demand and duration of travel statistics. We subsequently use this model to investigate two phenomena that are known to significantly affect the dynamics within the RTS: (1) overloading in trains and (2) overcrowding in the RTS platform. We demonstrate that by varying the loading capacity of trains, a tipping point emerges at which an exponential increase in the duration of travel time delays is observed. We also probe the impact on the rail system dynamics of three types of passenger growth distribution across stations: (i) Dirac delta, (ii) uniform and (iii) geometric, which is reminiscent of the effect of land use on transport. Under the assumption of a fixed loading capacity, we demonstrate the dependence of a given origin-destination (OD) pair on the flow volume of commuters in station platforms.

  12. Rapid Transition of the Hole Rashba Effect from Strong Field Dependence to Saturation in Semiconductor Nanowires (United States)

    Luo, Jun-Wei; Li, Shu-Shen; Zunger, Alex


    The electric field manipulation of the Rashba spin-orbit coupling effects provides a route to electrically control spins, constituting the foundation of the field of semiconductor spintronics. In general, the strength of the Rashba effects depends linearly on the applied electric field and is significant only for heavy-atom materials with large intrinsic spin-orbit interaction under high electric fields. Here, we illustrate in 1D semiconductor nanowires an anomalous field dependence of the hole (but not electron) Rashba effect (HRE). (i) At low fields, the strength of the HRE exhibits a steep increase with the field so that even low fields can be used for device switching. (ii) At higher fields, the HRE undergoes a rapid transition to saturation with a giant strength even for light-atom materials such as Si (exceeding 100 meV Å). (iii) The nanowire-size dependence of the saturation HRE is rather weak for light-atom Si, so size fluctuations would have a limited effect; this is a key requirement for scalability of Rashba-field-based spintronic devices. These three features offer Si nanowires as a promising platform for the realization of scalable complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor compatible spintronic devices.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wiwik Budiawan


    Full Text Available Keberadaan Bus Rapid Transit (BRT di Kota Semarang diharapkan dapat menjadi salah satu solusi akan permasalahan kemacetan, adanya BRT ini terutama pada trayek perjalanan koridor II, ternyata mendapatkan tanggapan positif dari masyarakat pengguna, terbukti dari meningkatnya permintaan yang terjadi dari tahun 2012 hingga 2013 yakni hampir menyentuh angka 90% dari tahun sebelumnya. Dari hasil pengamatan pada trayek perjalanan Koridor II yang telah dilakukan, ternyata diketahui bahwa pada beberapa shelter (halte terjadi permintaan yang cukup tinggi, dan akhirnya pada saat peak hour armada BRT tidak mampu menampung seluruh permintaan yang terjadi, sehingga mengakibatkan penumpang harus menunggu lebih lama untuk dilayani oleh armada tersebut. Hal tersebut memicu permasalahan baru yakni kurang optimalnya jumlah armada yang beroperasi dan juga jadwal antar keberangkatan armada yang kurang menyesuaikan kondisi ketika tingginya permintaan pada setiap halte. Adapun metode yang digunakan adalah dengan melakukan pendekatan sistem, yang selanjutnya melakukan pemodelan sistem transportasi dan simulasi computer yang terjadi pada rute perjalanan tersebut. Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah rancangan model simulasi dalam bentuk model matematis dan simulasi komputer. Variabel pengendali pada model matematis dan simulasi komputer adalah frekuensi waktu antar kedatangan armada BRT, sehingga diharapkan mengurangi panjang antrian penumpang. Kata kunci: sistem transportasi, pemodelan sistem, simulasi komputer.

  14. Bus Rapid Transit and Socioeconomic Condition of Bus Commuters in Lagos State

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Owolabi L. Kuye


    Full Text Available Road transport is one of the most common means of transportation across the world. Bus transportation in Nigeria had witnessed many problems for the past decades considering the growing population with the attendant loss of lives and properties in most cities like Lagos in Nigeria. This paper focuses on the adequacy of services provided by Bus Rapid Transit (BRT in Lagos State with respect to the extent to which it influences the socioeconomic conditions of bus commuters. It examines the effect of services rendered by BRT on cost reduction potential, income and safety. Multistage sampling technique was used to select 20 samples each from all respondents in all local government area in Lagos State to reach a total of three hundred and thirty (330 samples. The data collection instrument was the questionnaire which was validated. Data collected were analysed with the use of descriptive statistics such as means, percentages and standard deviation and inferential statistics such as regression and analysis of variance techniques. Findings showed that BRT services has reduced the cost of bus commuters and also increased safety and security thereby increasing the socioeconomic condition of Lagosians. The study recommends improvements in BRT services through the deployment of technology as it had been used in developed countries.


    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Timothy M.


    The currently favored method for estimating radii and other parameters of transiting-planet host stars is to match theoretical models to observations of the stellar mean density ρ * , the effective temperature T eff , and the composition parameter [Z]. This explicitly model-dependent approach is based on readily available observations, and results in small formal errors. Its performance will be central to the reliability of results from ground-based transit surveys such as TrES, HAT, and SuperWASP, as well as to the space-borne missions MOST, CoRoT, and Kepler. Here, I use two calibration samples of stars (eclipsing binaries (EBs) and stars for which asteroseismic analyses are available) having well-determined masses and radii to estimate the accuracy and systematic errors inherent in the ρ * method. When matching to the Yonsei-Yale stellar evolution models, I find the most important systematic error results from selection bias favoring rapidly rotating (hence probably magnetically active) stars among the EB sample. If unaccounted for, this bias leads to a mass-dependent underestimate of stellar radii by as much as 4% for stars of 0.4 M sun , decreasing to zero for masses above about 1.4 M sun . Relative errors in estimated stellar masses are three times larger than those in radii. The asteroseismic sample suggests (albeit with significant uncertainty) that systematic errors are small for slowly rotating, inactive stars. Systematic errors arising from failings of the Yonsei-Yale models of inactive stars probably exist, but are difficult to assess because of the small number of well-characterized comparison stars having low mass and slow rotation. Poor information about [Z] is an important source of random error, and may be a minor source of systematic error as well. With suitable corrections for rotation, it is likely that systematic errors in the ρ * method can be comparable to or smaller than the random errors, yielding radii that are accurate to about 2% for

  16. Urban Air Pollution in Taiwan before and after the Installation of a Mass Rapid Transit System. (United States)

    Ding, Pei-Hsiou; Wang, Gen-Shuh; Chen, Bing-Yu; Wan, Gwo-Hwa


    Urbanization causes air pollution in metropolitan areas, coupled with meteorological factors that affect air quality. Although previous studies focused on the relationships of urbanization, air pollution, and climate change in Western countries, this study evaluated long-term variations of air quality and meteorological factors in Taiwanese metropolitan areas (Taipei area, Taichung City, and Kaohsiung City) and a rural area (Hualien County) between 1993 and 2012. The influence of a mass rapid transit (MRT) system on air quality was also evaluated. Air pollutant concentrations and meteorology data were collected from Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (TEPA) air monitoring stations and Central Weather Bureau stations in the surveyed areas, respectively. Analyses indicate that levels of air pollution in metropolitan areas were greater than in the rural area. Kaohsiung City had the highest levels of O, SO, and particulate matter 2.5 or 10 µm in diameter (PM and PM). Clear downward trends for CO, NO, PM, PM, and especially SO concentrations were found in the surveyed areas, whereas O showed no decrease. Both O and PM concentrations showed similar bimodal seasonal distributions. Taiwan's air quality has improved significantly since 1993, indicating the effectiveness of promoting air pollution strategies and policies by the TEPA. Air pollution had an obvious improvement in Taipei area after the MRT system began operations in 1996. Because global climate may potentially affect urban air pollution in Taiwan, further study to clarify the mechanisms by which air pollution may affect human health and other biological effects is warranted. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  17. Rapid change of ion energy distribution and floating potential at L/H transition in the JFT-2M tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miura, Y.; Nagashima, K.; Okano, F.


    Rapid changes of the main ion energy distribution at transitions from L-to-H, H-to-L and during ELMs are studied with the time of flight neutral measurement in the JFT-2M tokamak. The change of the main ion energy distribution after sawtooth crash during an L-mode phase is also studied. The change of the ion energy distribution just after sawtooth crash is the same as that at L/H-transition. The floating potential measured in the SOL also shows the rapid jump to more positive just after the sawtooth crash (at the same time of the change of an ion energy distribution). This shows the increase of ion outflux in the SOL and might correspond to the change of the ion energy distribution. This may be the reason why most of H-modes are triggered by a sawtooth. (author)

  18. Transition from a planar interface to cellular and dendritic structures during rapid solidification processing (United States)

    Laxmanan, V.


    The development of theoretical models which characterize the planar-cellular and cell-dendrite transitions is described. The transitions are analyzed in terms of the Chalmers number, the solute Peclet number, and the tip stability parameter, which correlate microstructural features and processing conditions. The planar-cellular transition is examined using the constitutional supercooling theory of Chalmers et al., (1953) and it is observed that the Chalmers number is between 0 and 1 during dendritic and cellular growth. Analysis of cell-dendrite transition data reveal that the transition occurs when the solute Peclet number goes through a minimum, the primary arm spacings go through a maximum, and the Chalmers number is equal to 1/2. The relation between the tip stability parameter and the solute Peclet number is investigated and it is noted that the tip stability parameter is useful for studying dendritic growth in alloys.

  19. Smart Parking Management Field Test: A Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) District Parking Demonstration


    Shaheen, Susan


    In almost every major city in the U.S. and internationally, parking problems are ubiquitous. It is well known that the limited availability of parking contributes to roadway congestion, air pollution, and driver frustration and that the cost of expanding traditional parking capacity is frequently prohibitive. However, less research has addressed the effect of insufficient parking at transit stations on transit use. In the San Francisco Bay Area, parking has recently been at or near capacity a...

  20. The digital brain switch: managing rapid transitions between role identities in a digital world


    Symon, Gillian; Chamakiotis, Petros; Whiting, Rebecca; Roby, Helen; Whittle, Jon; Chong, Ming Ki; Ang, Chee Siang; Rashid, Umar


    In this paper, we present initial findings from an EPSRC-sponsored multi-disciplinary research project investigating how digital technologies and social media affect role transitions across work-life domains. The research uses an innovative combination of visual diaries and narrative interviews to capture micro-transitions (‘switches’) and explore these with participants in the context of their overall lives. Findings from a pilot study with academics are reported here in terms of: emergent d...

  1. Exploring synergies between transit investment and dense redevelopment: A scenario analysis in a rapidly urbanizing landscape (United States)

    Like many urban areas around the world, Durham and Orange counties in North Carolina, USA are experiencing population growth and sprawl that is putting stress on the transportation system. Light rail and denser transit-oriented development are being considered as possible solutio...

  2. Rapid Mapping of Lithiation Dynamics in Transition Metal Oxide Particles with Operando X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy (United States)

    Nowack, Lea; Grolimund, Daniel; Samson, Vallerie; Marone, Federica; Wood, Vanessa


    Since the commercialization of lithium ion batteries (LIBs), layered transition metal oxides (LiMO2, where M = Co, Mn, Ni, or mixtures thereof) have been materials of choice for LIB cathodes. During cycling, the transition metals change their oxidation states, an effect that can be tracked by detecting energy shifts in the X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectrum. X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) can therefore be used to visualize and quantify lithiation kinetics in transition metal oxide cathodes; however, in-situ measurements are often constrained by temporal resolution and X-ray dose, necessitating compromises in the electrochemistry cycling conditions used or the materials examined. We report a combined approach to reduce measurement time and X-ray exposure for operando XAS studies of lithium ion batteries. A highly discretized energy resolution coupled with advanced post-processing enables rapid yet reliable identification of the oxidation state. A full-field microscopy setup provides sub-particle resolution over a large area of battery electrode, enabling the oxidation state within many transition metal oxide particles to be tracked simultaneously. Here, we apply this approach to gain insights into the lithiation kinetics of a commercial, mixed-metal oxide cathode material, nickel cobalt aluminium oxide (NCA), during (dis)charge and its degradation during overcharge.

  3. Effects of new bus and rail rapid transit systems – an international review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingvardson, Jesper Bláfoss; Nielsen, Otto Anker


    areas surrounding the transit line with increasing property values. Such effects are traditionally associated with attractive rail-based public transport systems. However, a statistical comparison of 41 systems did not show significant deviations between effects on property values resulting from BRT...... time, ridership and modal shifts, and (ii) the indirect strategic effects in terms of effects on property values and urban development. The review confirms the existing literature suggesting that BRT can attract many passengers if travel time reductions are significantly high. This leads to attractive...

  4. Shooting the Rapids: Navigating Transitions to Adaptive Governance of Social-Ecological Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Per Olsson


    Full Text Available The case studies of Kristianstads Vattenrike, Sweden; the Northern Highlands Lake District and the Everglades in the USA; the Mae Nam Ping Basin, Thailand; and the Goulburn-Broken Catchment, Australia, were compared to assess the outcome of different actions for transforming social-ecological systems (SESs. The transformations consisted of two phases, a preparation phase and a transition phase, linked by a window of opportunity. Key leaders and shadow networks can prepare a system for change by exploring alternative system configurations and developing strategies for choosing from among possible futures. Key leaders can recognize and use or create windows of opportunity and navigate transitions toward adaptive governance. Leadership functions include the ability to span scales of governance, orchestrate networks, integrate and communicate understanding, and reconcile different problem domains. Successful transformations rely on epistemic and shadow networks to provide novel ideas and ways of governing SESs. We conclude by listing some ð"„¬rules of thumb" that can help build leadership and networks for successful transformations toward adaptive governance of social-ecological systems.

  5. Chronic escitalopram treatment attenuated the accelerated rapid eye movement sleep transitions after selective rapid eye movement sleep deprivation: a model-based analysis using Markov chains. (United States)

    Kostyalik, Diána; Vas, Szilvia; Kátai, Zita; Kitka, Tamás; Gyertyán, István; Bagdy, Gyorgy; Tóthfalusi, László


    Shortened rapid eye movement (REM) sleep latency and increased REM sleep amount are presumed biological markers of depression. These sleep alterations are also observable in several animal models of depression as well as during the rebound sleep after selective REM sleep deprivation (RD). Furthermore, REM sleep fragmentation is typically associated with stress procedures and anxiety. The selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) antidepressants reduce REM sleep time and increase REM latency after acute dosing in normal condition and even during REM rebound following RD. However, their therapeutic outcome evolves only after weeks of treatment, and the effects of chronic treatment in REM-deprived animals have not been studied yet. Chronic escitalopram- (10 mg/kg/day, osmotic minipump for 24 days) or vehicle-treated rats were subjected to a 3-day-long RD on day 21 using the flower pot procedure or kept in home cage. On day 24, fronto-parietal electroencephalogram, electromyogram and motility were recorded in the first 2 h of the passive phase. The observed sleep patterns were characterized applying standard sleep metrics, by modelling the transitions between sleep phases using Markov chains and by spectral analysis. Based on Markov chain analysis, chronic escitalopram treatment attenuated the REM sleep fragmentation [accelerated transition rates between REM and non-REM (NREM) stages, decreased REM sleep residence time between two transitions] during the rebound sleep. Additionally, the antidepressant avoided the frequent awakenings during the first 30 min of recovery period. The spectral analysis showed that the SSRI prevented the RD-caused elevation in theta (5-9 Hz) power during slow-wave sleep. Conversely, based on the aggregate sleep metrics, escitalopram had only moderate effects and it did not significantly attenuate the REM rebound after RD. In conclusion, chronic SSRI treatment is capable of reducing several effects on sleep which might be the consequence


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona MĂLĂESCU


    Full Text Available In the transition period, the Sub-Carpathians between Olt and Jiu were characterised by a reduced growth of the demographic potential, but especialy by a large mobility due to the socio-economical development and the balance between the rural and urban environment. From a spatial perspective, the Northern frame has reduced its demographic potential in the last 17 years, even more than the rural dorsal between the two bordering cities. Overall, the two extremities have increased their demographic potential, even if the evolutional tendencies have changed along the 17 years.The „centrality” degree and the vicinity of the capital and of the E 70 highway, determine, in the case of Râmnicu Vâlcea, a much higher territorial demographic “binding capacity”. Although still within the upper echelons from the perspective of the socio-economical development indicators, and moreover from that of the demographic resource descriptors (alphabetization indices, etc., the studied perimeter is in a constant demographic potential reduction process (proportionally the same with the distance towards the bordering urban center, firstly of the young one (atracted by the two urbane centers and secondly of the young and qualified –in general (rural and urban –in the benefit of the country’s main urban centers and especially the capital.

  7. Performance Analysis of a Recycled Concrete Interfacial Transition Zone in a Rapid Carbonization Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gongbing Yue


    Full Text Available Based on the characteristics of recycled concrete interface structures, a multi-interface reconstruction model was established. To study the microstructure evolution of the interfacial transition zone (ITZ during the carbonization process of recycled concrete, the microstructure characteristics of the ITZ of C30, C40, and C50 grade recycled concrete and the mortar matrix before and after carbonization were studied through the microhardness tester and SEM. The results show that the microhardness values of the ITZ and the mortar matrix are obviously increased and that the width of the ITZ decreases, while the ITZ performance of the C50 grade recycled concrete is not significantly changed. The ITZ exhibits a large amount of granular CaCO3 after carbonization, the pores are refined, and microcracks are generated. Overall, there are significant differences in the microstructures between the ITZ and the mortar matrix before and after carbonization.

  8. Influence of platform screen doors on energy consumption of the environment control system of a mass rapid transit system: case study of the Taipei MRT [mass rapid transit] system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shih-Cheng Hu; Jen-Ho Lee [National Taipei University of Technology, Taipei (China). Dept. of Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering


    This investigation studies how platform screen doors (PSD) affect the energy consumption of the environmental control system of a mass rapid transit (MRT) system in Taipei. The environmental parameter simulation was conducted using the subway environmental simulation (SES) program, while the associated air conditioning (A/C) cooling load was predicted with the carrier E20-II program. Results show that PSD can significantly decrease average and peak cooling load, thus reducing the capacity/size of cooling equipment and allowing the chiller cooling load to be abridged. However, electricity consumption by ventilation equipment increases notably when PSD are used, particularly the electricity consumption by the under platform exhaust (UPE) fan, and thus, ultimately, little difference exists in the overall energy consumption with and without UPE. (author)

  9. Changing demographics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vetter, B.M.


    This paper reports on changing population demographics, poor academic preparation for and a decreasing interest in engineering among college students which indicates possible shortages ahead, particularly among chemical and petroleum engineers. The talent pool for engineering must be enlarged to include women and minority men, if we are to ensure an adequate future supply for the U.S

  10. Bangkok's mass rapid transit system's commuter decision-making process in using integrated smartcards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peerakan Kaewwongwattana


    Full Text Available This paper studied the decision-making process to use an integrated smartcard ticketing system by Bangkok metropolitan transit commuters. A second-order Confirmatory Factor Analysis using LISREL 9.10 was undertaken on Bangkok commuter's decision-making process on the use of an integrated smartcard system. The sample consisted of 300 Bangkok commuters obtained by accidental sampling using questionnaires with a 5-point Likert scale. The tools in the research questionnaires used scale estimation that achieved a confidence value of 0.84. The research instruments used rating scales measuring information search, alternative choices, and use decision on the 15 variables in the decision-making process which had factor loadings between 0.49 and 0.89 weight elements when sorted in descending order and overall had a high level. Use decision, alternative choices and information search had a factor of 0.89, 0.65 and 0.49, respectively. There was a good fit of the decision-making model to the empirical data (chi-square = 34.55, probability (p = 0.94, df = 49, RMSEA = 0.00, GFI = 0.98, AGFI = 0.96, SRMR = 0.04.

  11. Aquaculture: a rapidly growing and significant source of sustainable food? Status, transitions and potential. (United States)

    Little, D C; Newton, R W; Beveridge, M C M


    The status and potential of aquaculture is considered as part of a broader food landscape of wild aquatic and terrestrial food sources. The rationale and resource base required for the development of aquaculture are considered in the context of broader societal development, cultural preferences and human needs. Attention is drawn to the uneven development and current importance of aquaculture globally as well as its considerable heterogeneity of form and function compared with established terrestrial livestock production. The recent drivers of growth in demand and production are examined and the persistent linkages between exploitation of wild stocks, full life cycle culture and the various intermediate forms explored. An emergent trend for sourcing aquaculture feeds from alternatives to marine ingredients is described and the implications for the sector with rapidly growing feed needs discussed. The rise of non-conventional and innovative feed ingredients, often shared with terrestrial livestock, are considered, including aquaculture itself becoming a major source of marine ingredients. The implications for the continued expected growth of aquaculture are set in the context of sustainable intensification, with the challenges that conventional intensification and emergent integration within, and between, value chains explored. The review concludes with a consideration of the implications for dependent livelihoods and projections for various futures based on limited resources but growing demand.

  12. Modelling and Simulation of Cooperative Control for Bus Rapid Transit Vehicle Platoon in a Connected Vehicle Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiahui Liu


    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to develop a cooperative control model for improving the operational efficiency of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT vehicles. The model takes advantage of the emerging connected vehicle technology. A connected vehicle centre is established to assign a specific reservation time interval and transmit the corresponding dynamic speed guidance to each BRT vehicle. Furthermore, a set of constraints have been set up to avoid bus queuing and waiting phenomena in downstream BRT stations. Therefore, many BRT vehicles are strategically guided to form a platoon, which can pass through an intersection with no impedance. An actual signalized intersection along the Guangzhou BRT corridor is employed to verify and assess the cooperative control model in various traffic conditions. The simulation-based evaluation results demonstrate that the proposed approach can reduce delays, decrease the number of stops, and improve the sustainability of the BRT vehicles.

  13. Current-induced metal-insulator transition in VO x thin film prepared by rapid-thermal-annealing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Choong-Rae; Cho, SungIl; Vadim, Sidorkin; Jung, Ranju; Yoo, Inkyeong


    The phenomenon of metal-insulator transition (MIT) in polycrystalline VO x thin films and their preparations have been studied. The films were prepared by sputtering of vanadium thin films succeeded by Rapid Thermal Annealing (RTA) in oxygen ambient at 500 deg. C. Crystalline, compositional, and morphological characterizations reveal a continuous change of phase from vanadium metal to the highest oxide phase, V 2 O 5 , with the time of annealing. Electrical MIT switching has been observed in these films. Sweeping mode, electrode area, and temperature dependent MIT has been studied in Pt/VO x /Pt vertical structure. The important parameters for MIT in VO x have been found to be the current density and the electric field, which depend on carrier density in the films

  14. Bus Rapid Transit system’s influence on urban development: An inquiry to Boston and Seoul BRT systems’ technical characteristics (United States)

    Prayogi, Lutfi


    This article explores the relation between bus rapid transit (BRT) system and urban development. This article was written through a multi-staged comprehensive literature review. It includes a general overview of widely acknowledged BRT technical characteristics. It explains the approach taken in understanding the relation between BRT system provision and urban development around the system. Findings regarding the influence of Boston Silver Line 4 and 5 and Seoul BRT systems on urban development around the systems are quoted and used as case studies. Investigation on the technical characteristics of Boston SL4/5 and Seoul BRT systems are provided. This article shows that the two BRT systems that influence urban development around the systems have technical characteristics that enable the BRT systems to have high performance. However, while the quoted BRT systems can influence urban development, they have significantly different performance.

  15. A Plasma-Assisted Route to the Rapid Preparation of Transition-Metal Phosphides for Energy Conversion and Storage

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Hanfeng


    Transition-metal phosphides (TMPs) are important materials that have been widely used in catalysis, supercapacitors, batteries, sensors, light-emitting diodes, and magnets. The physical and chemical structure of a metal phosphide varies with the method of preparation as the electronic, catalytic, and magnetic properties of the metal phosphides strongly depend on their synthesis routes. Commonly practiced processes such as solid-state synthesis and ball milling have proven to be reliable routes to prepare TMPs but they generally require high temperature and long reaction time. Here, a recently developed plasma-assisted conversion route for the preparation of TMPs is reviewed, along with their applications in energy conversion and storage, including water oxidation electrocatalysis, sodium-ion batteries, and supercapacitors. The plasma-assisted synthetic route should open up a new avenue to prepare TMPs with tailored structure and morphology for various applications. In fact, the process may be further extended to the synthesis of a wide range of transition-metal compounds such as borides and fluorides at low temperature and in a rapid manner.

  16. The Rapid Urban Growth Triad: A New Conceptual Framework for Examining the Urban Transition in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyle Farrell


    Full Text Available Although the urban transition is a universal event that unfolds in all countries, the determinants, patterns, and outcomes do not necessarily follow a uniform process. With the urban transition being basically completed in developed countries around the turn of the 21st century, the growth of cities today is almost entirely confined to developing countries. Still, much of our conceptual understanding of this process is derived from earlier accounts, with definitions rooted in a historical context. This has resulted in common misconceptions such as a tendency to view the growth of cities primarily as an outcome of rural to urban migration, neglecting the growing contributions of urban natural population increase and reclassification of rural areas. A tendency to treat the components of urban growth in isolation has created a rift within the urban studies discourse, preventing any real theorization of their combined impacts and the interplay among them. Applying a systems thinking approach, this paper introduces a multidisciplinary framework for conceptualizing rapid urban growth in developing countries. The framework offers explanatory power to previously neglected components of urban growth and serves as a diagnostic for examining the urban transition—ultimately revealing new policy levers for managing it in a sustainable way.

  17. A Functional Thinking Approach to the Design of Future Transportation Systems: Taxis as a Proxy for Personal Rapid Transit in South Korea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thompson, Mary Kathryn; Bae, Hyun Hye


    For over 50 years, personal rapid transit (PRT) has been viewed as one of the most promising ways to provide sustainable, economical, and convenient transportation while reducing reliance on personal automobiles. However, despite concerted efforts around the world, the promise of PRT has yet...... to be realized. This work demonstrates that different physical means, such as the Korean taxi system, can be used to perform the same highest-level functional requirement, satisfy the same constraints, and provide many of the benefits that are expected of a city-scale personal rapid transit system. Thus, Korean...... taxis can be used as an alternative embodiment of personal rapid transit and can serve as a test bed to support PRT-related design, research, and development. The paper then explores the transportation patterns and characteristics of cities in South Korea and the United States in order to determine...


    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)


  19. The Role of Chance Events in the School-to-Work Transition: The Influence of Demographic, Personality and Career Development Variables (United States)

    Hirschi, Andreas


    Chance events are considered important in career development, yet little empirical research is available on their predictors and consequences. The present study investigated socio-demographic (gender, nationality, school-type), personality (openness, locus of control) and career development variables (career decidedness, career planning) in…

  20. Using agent based modeling to assess the effect of increased Bus Rapid Transit system infrastructure on walking for transportation. (United States)

    Lemoine, Pablo D; Cordovez, Juan Manuel; Zambrano, Juan Manuel; Sarmiento, Olga L; Meisel, Jose D; Valdivia, Juan Alejandro; Zarama, Roberto


    The effect of transport infrastructure on walking is of interest to researchers because it provides an opportunity, from the public policy point of view, to increase physical activity (PA). We use an agent based model (ABM) to examine the effect of transport infrastructure on walking. Particular relevance is given to assess the effect of the growth of the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system in Bogotá on walking. In the ABM agents are assigned a home, work location, and socioeconomic status (SES) based on which they are assigned income for transportation. Individuals must decide between the available modes of transport (i.e., car, taxi, bus, BRT, and walking) as the means of reaching their destination, based on resources and needed travel time. We calibrated the model based on Bogota's 2011 mobility survey. The ABM results are consistent with previous empirical findings, increasing BRT access does indeed increase the number of minutes that individuals walk for transportation, although this effect also depends on the availability of other transport modes. The model indicates a saturation process: as more BRT lanes are added, the increment in minutes walking becomes smaller, and eventually the walking time decreases. Our findings on the potential contribution of the expansion of the BRT system to walking for transportation suggest that ABMs may prove helpful in designing policies to continue promoting walking. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Body Growth and Rapid Hematological Development Support Breath Hold of Baby Belugas (Delphinapterus leucas) during Subice Transit. (United States)

    Noren, Shawn R; Poll, Caryn P; Edwards, Matthew S

    Body size and oxygen stores in the blood and muscle set breath-hold limits in marine mammals, yet these characteristics are understudied in immature cetaceans. We examined body mass and hematology from birth through adulthood in beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas). At birth, body mass was 8% and 6% of the maximum mass recorded for adult females and males, respectively. Body mass then increased rapidly, approaching an asymptote around 12 yr for females and 18 yr for males. Interestingly, red blood cell counts, hemoglobin content, and hematocrit levels decreased after birth; this neonatal anemia was reversed as levels increased after 2 mo postpartum. Mature levels were obtained at approximately 8, 9, and 11 mo postpartum, respectively. Neonatal mean corpuscular hemoglobin also increased with ontogeny; mature levels were achieved by approximately 13 mo after birth. In contrast, mean corpuscular volume and mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration demonstrated a significant but subtle increase throughout ontogeny. Our results indicate that postnatal maturation was required and that maturation occurred far earlier than the age at weaning (i.e., 2-3 yr postpartum). This is atypical of marine mammals, which generally achieve mature hemoglobin levels at weaning. Hematological maturation before maternal independence undoubtedly supports the prolonged breath holds of young belugas transiting under sea ice. This assessment enhances our knowledge of cetacean physiology and provides important inputs for determining age-specific dive capacity, yielding insights into age-specific flexibility to alter underwater behaviors, as will be required for future regime shifts and disturbances.

  2. Is there a Demographic Time-bomb?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greve, Bent


    The article discuss whether the demographic transition in Europe will have any impact on the future of the European welfare states......The article discuss whether the demographic transition in Europe will have any impact on the future of the European welfare states...

  3. Effectiveness and safety of oral olanzapine treatment transitioned from rapid-acting intramuscular olanzapine for agitation associated with schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katagiri H


    Full Text Available Hideaki Katagiri,1 Masanori Taketsuna,2 Shinpei Kondo,3 Kenta Kajimoto,4 Etsuko Aoi,5 Yuka Tanji1 1Bio-Medicines, Medicines Development Unit Japan, Eli Lilly Japan K.K., Kobe, Japan; 2Statistical Sciences, Medicines Development Unit Japan, Eli Lilly Japan K.K., Kobe, Japan; 3Post Marketing Study Management, Medicines Development Unit Japan, Eli Lilly Japan K.K., Kobe, Japan; 4Scientific Communications, Medicines Development Unit Japan, Eli Lilly Japan K.K., Kobe, Japan; 5Global Patient Safety Japan, Quality and Patient Safety, Eli Lilly Japan K.K., Kobe, Japan Objective: To assess the effectiveness and safety of oral olanzapine treatment transitioned from rapid-acting intramuscular olanzapine (RAIM in patients with acute agitation associated with schizophrenia in a real-world clinical setting. Methods: The postmarketing surveillance study with a 3-day observational period after the last RAIM administration was conducted (original study. Following this, an extended study was added for patients who received oral olanzapine after RAIM administration during the original study period, in order to additionally observe them for 7 days after initial RAIM administration. Effectiveness and safety from initial RAIM administration were evaluated using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale-Excited Component score and treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs, respectively. Results: The effectiveness and safety analysis set included a total of 521 and 522 patients, respectively. A majority of patients received 10 mg of RAIM (475/522 patients, 91.0%. The mean ± SD total Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale-Excited Component score was 23.6±6.2 (n=318 at baseline (before initial RAIM administration, 17.4±6.8 (n=280 at 2 hours after initial administration, 16.2±6.8 (n=246 2 days after final administration, 14.9±6.2 (n=248 3 days after final administration, 13.8±5.9 (n=242 4 days after final administration, 13.2±5.8 (n=221 7 days after initial

  4. An evaluation of a lane support system for bus rapid transit on narrow shoulders and the relation to bus driver mental workload

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ward, Nicholas J.; Shankwitz, Craig; Gorgestani, Alec; Donath, Max; De Waard, Dick; Boer, Erwin R.


    The use of dedicated bus shoulders is a key method for implementing bus rapid transit (BRT) in areas that do not have the space for additional infrastructure. However, the narrow width of the bus shoulder and the need to anticipate traffic hazards in the adjacent lane can both be significant

  5. Land use impacts of bus rapid transit : phase II -- effects of BRT station proximity on property values along the Boston silver line Washington Street Corridor. (United States)


    The development of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems is relatively recent in the U.S.; however, several systems are operating and many : more are being planned. A comprehensive understanding of the relationship between land uses and BRT systems is need...

  6. A Randomized Controlled Trial for Children with Childhood Apraxia of Speech Comparing Rapid Syllable Transition Treatment and the Nuffield Dyspraxia Programme-Third Edition (United States)

    Murray, Elizabeth; McCabe, Patricia; Ballard, Kirrie J.


    Purpose: This randomized controlled trial compared the experimental Rapid Syllable Transition (ReST) treatment to the Nuffield Dyspraxia Programme-Third Edition (NDP3; Williams & Stephens, 2004), used widely in clinical practice in Australia and the United Kingdom. Both programs aim to improve speech motor planning/programming for children…

  7. Planning ahead for livable communities along the Powell–Division Bus Rapid Transit : neighborhood conditions and change. (United States)


    New transit investments can be a double-edged sword for disadvantaged communities (e.g., those included in environmental justice and Title VI protected classes). Transit investments improve communities mobility and access, and may improve health w...

  8. Rapid Syllable Transitions (ReST) treatment for Childhood Apraxia of Speech: the effect of lower dose-frequency. (United States)

    Thomas, Donna C; McCabe, Patricia; Ballard, Kirrie J


    This study investigated the effectiveness of twice-weekly Rapid Syllable Transitions (ReST) treatment for Childhood Apraxia of Speech (CAS). ReST is an effective treatment at a frequency of four sessions a week for three consecutive weeks. In this study we used a multiple-baselines across participants design to examine treatment efficacy for four children with CAS, aged four to eight years, who received ReST treatment twice a week for six weeks. The children's ability to acquire new skills, generalize these skills to untreated items and maintain the skills after treatment was examined. All four children improved their production of the target items. Two of the four children generalized the treatment effects to similar untreated pseudo words and all children generalized to untreated real words. During the maintenance phase, all four participants maintained their skills to four months post-treatment, with a stable rather than rising profile. This study shows that ReST treatment delivered twice-weekly results in significant retention of treatment effects to four months post-treatment and generalization to untrained but related speech behaviors. Compared to ReST therapy four times per week, the twice-weekly frequency produces similar treatment gains but no ongoing improvement after the cessation of treatment. This implies that there may be a small but significant benefit of four times weekly therapy compared with twice-weekly ReST therapy. Readers will be able to define dose-frequency, and describe how this relates to overall intervention intensity. Readers will be able to explain the acquisition, generalization and maintenance effects in the study and describe how these compare to higher dose frequency treatments. Readers will recognize that the current findings give preliminary support for high dose-frequency CAS treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Human annoyance, acceptability and concern as responses to vibration from the construction of Light Rapid Transit lines in residential environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wong-McSweeney, D., E-mail: [Acoustics Research Centre, University of Salford, Salford M5 4TW (United Kingdom); Woodcock, J.S.; Peris, E.; Waddington, D.C.; Moorhouse, A.T. [Acoustics Research Centre, University of Salford, Salford M5 4TW (United Kingdom); Redel-Macías, M.D. [Dep. Rural Engineering Campus de Rabanales, University of Córdoba, Córdoba (Spain)


    The aim of this paper is to investigate the use of different self-reported measures for assessing the human response to environmental vibration from the construction of an urban LRT (Light Rapid Transit) system. The human response to environmental stressors such as vibration and noise is often expressed in terms of exposure–response relationships that describe annoyance as a function of the magnitude of the vibration. These relationships are often the basis of noise and vibration policy and the setting of limit values. This paper examines measures other than annoyance by expressing exposure–response relationships for vibration in terms of self-reported concern about property damage and acceptability. The exposure–response relationships for concern about property damage and for acceptability are then compared with those for annoyance. It is shown that concern about property damage occurs at vibration levels well below those where there is any risk of damage. Earlier research indicated that concern for damage is an important moderator of the annoyance induced. Acceptability, on the other hand, might be influenced by both annoyance and concern, as well as by other considerations. It is concluded that exposure–response relationships expressing acceptability as a function of vibration exposure could usefully complement existing relationships for annoyance in future policy decisions regarding environmental vibration. The results presented in this paper are derived from data collected through a socio-vibration survey (N = 321) conducted for the construction of an urban LRT in the United Kingdom. - Highlights: • The human response to construction vibration is assessed in residential environments. • Exposure–response relationships are generated based on survey and semi-empirical vibration estimation. • Annoyance, concern and acceptability are compared as response measures. • Concern and acceptability are viable measures complementing annoyance.

  10. Satellite in transit metastases in rapidly fatal conjunctival melanoma: implications for angiotropism and extravascular migratory metastasis (description of a murine model for conjunctival melanoma). (United States)

    Barnhill, Raymond L; Lemaitre, Stéphanie; Lévy-Gabrielle, Christine; Rodrigues, Manuel; Desjardins, Laurence; Dendale, Rémi; Vincent-Salomon, Anne; Roman-Roman, Sergio; Lugassy, Claire; Cassoux, Nathalie


    Little information is currently available concerning loco-regional metastases such as satellite and in transit metastases and their natural history in conjunctival melanoma as compared to cutaneous melanoma. Angiotropism, a marker of extravascular migration of melanoma cells along vascular channels, often appears responsible for microscopic satellite, satellite and in transit metastases development in cutaneous melanoma. In addition, diffuse tissue microscopic satellites are correlated with widespread melanoma dissemination and death. Herein we report rapid conjunctival melanoma progression and a fatal outcome in four of five patients following recurrence as satellite in transit metastases. Five patients aged 31, 60, 63, 56, and 67 years developed primary conjunctival melanoma, histologically characterised by tumour thicknesses of 4, 4, 1.1, 3, and 2 mm. Two or more conjunctival melanomas manifested ulceration, significant mitotic rates, necrosis, angiotropism, and intralesional transformation. The conjunctival melanoma recurred in a matter of months as one or more discrete satellite in transit lesions in the vicinity of the primary melanoma. Histological examination revealed well-defined micronodules containing atypical melanocytes in the subepithelial connective tissue stroma. All lesions were extravascular and most appeared angiotropic. Four of five patients subsequently developed parotid or other loco-regional nodal disease and rapidly ensuing widespread metastases and death. The time course from diagnosis to the demise of the patients averaged about 13 (range 7-20) months. Our findings suggest that satellite in transit metastases constitute an important new risk marker for possible rapid metastatic disease progression and death in patients with conjunctival melanoma. This finding appears to take on even greater significance if such lesions develop rapidly, i.e., in a matter of weeks or months following diagnosis of primary conjunctival melanoma, and if the

  11. Das causas às conseqüências econômicas da transição demográfica no Brasil From the causes to the economic consequences of the demographic transition in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo de Tarso Almeida Paiva


    Full Text Available As relações entre crescimento populacional e desenvolvimento desafiam estudiosos por muito tempo e referem-se tanto aos impactos do crescimento e estrutura da população sobre o crescimento e a distribuição da renda (crescimento econômico, quanto sobre os impactos do crescimento econômico sobre o crescimento e a estrutura da população. Há cerca de três décadas discutiam-se as causas e conseqüências do crescimento populacional. Hoje, discutem-se as causas e conseqüências da transição demográfica. Muita coisa mudou no mundo e, do ponto de vista demográfico, a maior mudança foi a universalização do processo de transição demográfica. Expressões como "bomba demográfica" foram substituídas por "bônus demográfico" ou "janela de oportunidades". Este artigo pretende examinar como essas relações entre população e economia foram interpretadas e discutidas e como influenciaram o pensamento, a pesquisa acadêmica e, eventualmente, algumas propostas de políticas públicas no Brasil. O artigo procura sumariar os avanços que estão em curso na pesquisa sobre população e economia e suas implicações para as políticas públicas e o desenvolvimento.Relationships between development and population growth have challenged scholars and researchers for many years, and refer to the impacts of population growth and distribution on economic growth, and to the impacts of economic growth on population. Three decades ago the major issue was the causes and consequences of population growth. The central issue today is about the causes and consequences of demographic transition on the economy. Many changes have taken place over the last thirty years. From the demographic point of view, the most important change has been the generalization of the so-called demographic transition. "Demographic bonus" and "window of opportunities" have become substitutes for "the demographic bomb." This article describes how the relations between population

  12. Health co-benefits in mortality avoidance from implementation of the mass rapid transit (MRT) system in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. (United States)

    Kwan, Soo Chen; Tainio, Marko; Woodcock, James; Hashim, Jamal Hisham


    The mass rapid transit (MRT) is the largest transport infrastructure project under the national key economic area (NKEA) in Malaysia. As urban rail is anticipated to be the future spine of public transport network in the Greater Kuala Lumpur city, it is important to mainstream climate change mitigation and public health benefits in the local transport development. This study quantifies the health co-benefits in terms of mortality among the urbanites when the first line of the 150 km MRT system in Kuala Lumpur commences by 2017. Using comparative health risk assessment, we estimated the potential health co-benefits from the establishment of the MRT system. We estimated the reduced CO2 emissions and air pollution (PM2.5) exposure reduction among the general population from the reduced use of motorized vehicles. Mortality avoided from traffic incidents involving motorcycles and passenger cars, and from increased physical activity from walking while using the MRT system was also estimated. A total of 363,130 tonnes of CO2 emissions could be reduced annually from the modal shift from cars and motorcycles to the MRT system. Atmospheric PM2.5 concentration could be reduced 0.61 μg/m3 annually (2%). This could avoid a total of 12 deaths, mostly from cardio-respiratory diseases among the city residents. For traffic injuries, 37 deaths could be avoided annually from motorcycle and passenger cars accidents especially among the younger age categories (aged 15-30). One additional death was attributed to pedestrian walking. The additional daily physical activity to access the MRT system could avoid 21 deaths among its riders. Most of the mortality avoided comes from cardiovascular diseases. Overall, a total of 70 deaths could be avoided annually among both the general population and the MRT users in the city. The implementation of the MRT system in Greater Kuala Lumpur could bring substantial health co-benefits to both the general population and the MRT users mainly from the

  13. Demographic Modelling in Weed Biocontrol (United States)

    Demographic matrix modeling of plant populations can be a powerful tool to identify key life stage transitions that contribute the most to population growth of an invasive plant and hence should be targeted for disruption. Therefore, this approach has the potential to guide the pre-release selection...

  14. Transitioning Towards Sustainable Development Goals: The Role of Household Environment in Influencing Child Health in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia using Recent Demographic Health Surveys.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankit eAnand


    Full Text Available The millennium development goals are now replaced by seventeen sustainable development goals. The emphasis of old goals was on improving water, sanitation, and child mortality conditions in developing countries. The study explored the major question about the association between different household environment conditions with child survival and health in Sub-Saharan African and South Asian countries in the current scenario. This paper estimated the risk of death, morbidity and under-nutrition among children living in households with the improved sources of water, sanitation and non-solid cooking fuel. Two sources of information explored in this study. First, data from World Health Statistics (WHS -2014 for all of the Sub-Saharan African and South Asian countries were used. Second, available standard Demographic and Health Survey performed in the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia after 2010, included in the study. It resulted in inclusion of 15 countries which were Bangladesh (2011, Congo Republic (2013-14, Cote d'Ivoire (2011-12, Ethiopia (2011, Gambia (2013, Mali (2012-13, Mozambique (2011, Namibia (2013, Nepal (2011, Niger (2012, Nigeria (2013, Pakistan (2012-13, Sierra Leone (2013, Uganda (2011 and Zambia (2013. The Scatter plot diagram was plotted, and the curve was fitted using the WHS-2014. Cox regression and logistic regression were used to estimate adjusted risks (odds ratio of child mortality and health outcomes using DHS surveys. The use of non-solid cooking fuel was very high in most of the Sub-Saharan African and South Asian Countries. There was a positive correlation between improving access to safe drinking water and sanitation. The exponential curve fitted well with child mortality and Household environmental indicators. The use of improved source of water and sanitation significantly related with the lower odds ratio of death, morbidity and under-nutrition among children aged 12-59 months. The risks were not

  15. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Querbes, A.; Vaesen, K.; Houkes, W.N.


    Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological

  16. Talent 2 - the new vehicle family for regional and rapid transit rail services; Talent 2 - Die neue Fahrzeugfamilie fuer den Regional- und S-Bahnverkehr

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Segieth, Christian [Bombardier Transportation, Hennigsdorf (Germany)


    In February 2007, Deutsche Bahn AG concluded a framework contract with railway vehicle manufacturer Bombardier for the supply of 321 new-generation Talent 2 electrical multiple unit trains for regional and rapid transit rail services. In light of changing market requirements, the trains are not being delivered in predetermined numbers at predetermined dates, as used to be customary, but will be released according to need up until 2014. The contract covers the basic conditions and agreements for the overall order, which is worth some 1.2 billion of Euros. Deutsche Bahn AG has already concluded similar contracts with Bombardier for double-deck coaches. (orig.)

  17. Reaching a 1.5°C target: socio-technical challenges for a rapid transition to low-carbon electricity systems. (United States)

    Eyre, Nick; Darby, Sarah J; Grünewald, Philipp; McKenna, Eoghan; Ford, Rebecca


    A 1.5°C global average target implies that we should no longer focus on merely incremental emissions reductions from the electricity system, but rather on fundamentally re-envisaging a system that, sooner rather than later, becomes carbon free. Many low-carbon technologies are surpassing mainstream predictions for both uptake and cost reduction. Their deployment is beginning to be disruptive within established systems. 'Smart technologies' are being developed to address emerging challenges of system integration, but their rates of future deployment remain uncertain. We argue that transition towards a system that can fully displace carbon generation sources will require expanding the focus of our efforts beyond technical solutions. Recognizing that change has social and technical dimensions, and that these interact strongly, we set out a socio-technical review that covers electricity infrastructure, citizens, business models and governance. It describes some of the socio-technical challenges that need to be addressed for the successful transition of the existing electricity systems. We conclude that a socio-technical understanding of electricity system transitions offers new and better insights into the potential and challenges for rapid decarbonization.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  18. Product variety and the demographic transition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guzmán, Ricardo Andrés; Weisdorf, Jacob Louis


    Why does the rate of population growth decline in the face of economic growth? We show that growing product variety may induce a permanent reduction in the demand for children and a continuous rise in income and consumption.......Why does the rate of population growth decline in the face of economic growth? We show that growing product variety may induce a permanent reduction in the demand for children and a continuous rise in income and consumption....

  19. Product Variety and the Demographic Transition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guzmán, Ricardo Andrés; Weisdorf, Jacob Louis

    Why does the rate of population growth decline in the face of economic growth? We show that growing product variety may induce a permanent reduction in the demand for children and a continuous rise in income and consumption.......Why does the rate of population growth decline in the face of economic growth? We show that growing product variety may induce a permanent reduction in the demand for children and a continuous rise in income and consumption....

  20. Changes in melatonin secretion in tourists after rapid movement to another lighting zone without transition of time zone. (United States)

    Wieczorek, Joanna; Blazejczyk, Krzysztof; Morita, Takeshi


    Most of the research in the field of Chronobiology is focused on the problem of the circadian rhythms (CR) desynchronization. In travelers, it results mostly from the changes of surrounding: photoperiod, local climate conditions (radiation and thermal load) and behavior (e.g. type and place of tourism and activity level). Until now, it was not documented whether the changes in melatonin (MLT) secretion occur in effect of mid-distance transparallel travels (TpT), without complications arising due to time-zone transitions (e.g. jet-lag syndrome). To cope with this problem, a special field experiment was carried out. In the experiment, MLT characteristics were examined twice a year in real conditions through a group of young tourists (23-26 years old) at their place of habitual residence (Warsaw, Poland), and at their tourist destination (Tromso, Norway). Transition to circumpolar zone in summer has resulted in insignificant reduction in melatonin peak value (MPV) compared to preflight control (2 days before travel) and the melatonin peak time (MPT) was delayed. However, after traveling southward on the returning flight, MPV was lower compared to control and MPT was advanced. In winter, MPV was insignificantly higher in comparison to preflight control and MPT was almost unchanged. While changes in MPV do not depend on season, flight direction and day of stay after flight than MPT was differentiated seasonally and due to direction of flight. MPV and MPT were significantly modified by characteristics of individual light exposure during daytime and evening. The experiment showed also that in real conditions activity level is an important factor affected melatonin peak in tourists. In winter, greater daytime activity significantly influenced earlier MPT occurrence, both after northward and southward flights.

  1. Voluntary sway and rapid orthogonal transitions of voluntary sway in young adults, and low and high fall-risk older adults. (United States)

    Tucker, Murray G; Kavanagh, Justin J; Morrison, Steven; Barrett, Rod S


    Falls amongst older people have been linked to reduced postural stability and slowed movement responses. The objective of this study was to examine differences in postural stability and the speed of response between young adults, low fall-risk older adults, and high fall-risk older adults during voluntary postural sway movements. Twenty-five young adults (25+/-4 years), and 32 low fall-risk (74+/-5 years), and 16 high fall-risk (79+/-7 years) older adults performed voluntary sway and rapid orthogonal transitions of voluntary sway between the anterior-posterior and medial-lateral directions. Measures included reaction and movement time and the amplitudes of the centre of pressure, centre of mass, and the separation distance between the centre of pressure and centre of mass. Both fall-risk groups compared to the young had slower reaction and movement time, greater centre of pressure and/or centre of mass amplitude in the orthogonal (non-target) direction during voluntary sway, and reduced anterior-posterior and medial-lateral separation between the centre of pressure and centre of mass during voluntary sway and orthogonal transitions. High compared to low fall-risk individuals had slower reaction and movement time, increased non-target centre of mass amplitude during voluntary sway, and reduced medial-lateral centre of pressure and centre of mass separation during voluntary sway and orthogonal transitions. Age-related deterioration of postural control resulted in slower reactive responses and reduced control of the direction of body movement during voluntary sway and orthogonal transitions. Slower postural reaction and movement time and reduced medial-lateral control of the centre of mass during voluntary sway movements are associated with increased fall-risk in community-living older people.

  2. Implications of climate variability for the detection of multiple equilibria and for rapid transitions in the atmosphere-vegetation system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bathiany, S. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Claussen, M. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Universitaet Hamburg, Meteorologisches Institut, Hamburg (Germany); Fraedrich, K. [Universitaet Hamburg, Meteorologisches Institut, Hamburg (Germany)


    Paleoclimatic records indicate a decline of vegetation cover in the Western Sahara at the end of the African Humid Period (about 5,500 years before present). Modelling studies have shown that this phenomenon may be interpreted as a critical transition that results from a bifurcation in the atmosphere-vegetation system. However, the stability properties of this system are closely linked to climate variability and depend on the climate model and the methods of analysis. By coupling the Planet Simulator (PlaSim), an atmosphere model of intermediate complexity, with the simple dynamic vegetation model VECODE, we assess previous methods for the detection of multiple equilibria, and demonstrate their limitations. In particular, a stability diagram can yield misleading results because of spatial interactions, and the system's steady state and its dependency on initial conditions are affected by atmospheric variability and nonlinearities. In addition, we analyse the implications of climate variability for the abruptness of a vegetation decline. We find that a vegetation collapse can happen at different locations at different times. These collapses are possible despite large and uncorrelated climate variability. Because of the nonlinear relation between vegetation dynamics and precipitation the green state is initially stabilised by the high variability. When precipitation falls below a critical threshold, the desert state is stabilised as variability is then also decreased. (orig.)

  3. Influence of ejection temperature on structure and glass transition behavior for Zr-based rapidly quenched disordered alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, X.H.; Inoue, A.; Kong, F.L.; Zhu, S.L.; Stoica, M.; Kaban, I.; Chang, C.T.; Shalaan, E.; Al-Marzouki, F.; Eckert, J.


    We examined the influence of ejection liquid temperature (T el ) on the structure, thermal stability and crystallization of Zr−Al−Ni−Cu ribbons prepared by the melt-spinning technique. The increase in T el was found to cause the formation of an oxide phase on the ribbon surface, more loose atomic configurations, the absence of glass transition (GT) and supercooled liquid (SL) region, and the rise of crystallization temperature. The changes in the GT and SL region occur reversibly by controlling the T el . Neither the change in alloy composition except oxygen nor the difference in crystallized phases is seen. Their hardness increases significantly by the disappearance of GT and SL region. The reversible changes in the appearance and disappearance of GT and SL region was found for different Zr-based glassy ribbons, being independent of alloy compositions. The disappearance is presumably due to the change in atomic configurations from high-coordinated to less-coordinated atomic packing in the melt-spun ribbons by freezing high-temperature liquid. The observed phenomenon of the reversible changes provides a novel opportunity for deep understanding of mutual correlations among liquid structure, GT, stability of SL and bulk glass-forming ability for metallic alloys.

  4. Influence of platform screen doors on energy consumption of the environment control system of a mass rapid transit system: case study of the Taipei MRT system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, S.-C.; Lee, J.-H.


    This investigation studies how platform screen doors (PSD) affect the energy consumption of the environmental control system of a mass rapid transit (MRT) system in Taipei. The environmental parameter simulation was conducted using the subway environmental simulation (SES) program, while the associated air conditioning (A/C) cooling load was predicted with the carrier E20-II program. Results show that PSD can significantly decrease average and peak cooling load, thus reducing the capacity/size of cooling equipment and allowing the chiller cooling load to be abridged. However, electricity consumption by ventilation equipment increases notably when PSD are used, particularly the electricity consumption by the under platform exhaust (UPE) fan, and thus, ultimately, little difference exists in the overall energy consumption with and without UPE

  5. Influence of platform screen doors on energy consumption of the environment control system of a mass rapid transit system: case study of the Taipei MRT system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, S.-C. E-mail:; Lee, J.-H


    This investigation studies how platform screen doors (PSD) affect the energy consumption of the environmental control system of a mass rapid transit (MRT) system in Taipei. The environmental parameter simulation was conducted using the subway environmental simulation (SES) program, while the associated air conditioning (A/C) cooling load was predicted with the carrier E20-II program. Results show that PSD can significantly decrease average and peak cooling load, thus reducing the capacity/size of cooling equipment and allowing the chiller cooling load to be abridged. However, electricity consumption by ventilation equipment increases notably when PSD are used, particularly the electricity consumption by the under platform exhaust (UPE) fan, and thus, ultimately, little difference exists in the overall energy consumption with and without UPE.

  6. The nutrition transition in amazonia: rapid economic change and its impact on growth and development in Ribeirinhos. (United States)

    Piperata, Barbara A; Spence, Jennifer E; Da-Gloria, Pedro; Hubbe, Mark


    The goal of this longitudinal study was to assess the impact of economic change and increased market integration on subsistence strategies, living conditions, growth, and nutritional status of Ribeirinhos living in the rural Amazon, Brazil. Data on weight, height, skinfolds, and circumferences, as well as data on economic strategies and living conditions were collected from 469 individuals in 2002 and 429 in 2009. Of these, 204 individuals were measured on both occasions. Independent and paired t-tests were used to identify changes in nutritional status over time in the larger sample and smaller, longitudinal subsample, respectively. Multiple linear regressions were used to examine the relationship between changes in economic/living conditions and nutritional status in the longitudinal subsample. Results indicate modest improvements in linear growth (HAZ) and among male children the observed increase was related to enrollment in the Brazilian conditional cash transfer program, Bolsa Família (P = 0.03). In terms of short-term measures of nutritional status, we found a significant increase in ZTSF and a reduction in ZUMA in most age/sex groups. Among subadults, there was a negative relationship between ZUMA and access to electricity (P = 0.01) and positive relationship between ZUMA and the sale of the açaí fruit (P = 0.04). Significant changes in weight and BMI (P economic strategies and lifestyle, changes in nutritional status were modest which may be explained by increased food insecurity documented during this early stage of transition. 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  7. Evidence from a mouse model that epithelial cell migration and mesenchymal-epithelial transition contribute to rapid restoration of uterine tissue integrity during menstruation. (United States)

    Cousins, Fiona L; Murray, Alison; Esnal, Arantza; Gibson, Douglas A; Critchley, Hilary O D; Saunders, Philippa T K


    In women dynamic changes in uterine tissue architecture occur during each menstrual cycle. Menses, characterised by the shedding of the upper functional layer of the endometrium, is the culmination of a cascade of irreversible changes in tissue function including stromal decidualisation, inflammation and production of degradative enzymes. The molecular mechanisms that contribute to the rapid restoration of tissue homeostasis at time of menses are poorly understood. A modified mouse model of menses was developed to focus on the events occurring within the uterine lining during endometrial shedding/repair. Decidualisation, vaginal bleeding, tissue architecture and cell proliferation were evaluated at 4, 8, 12, and 24 hours after progesterone (P4) withdrawal; mice received a single injection of bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU) 90 mins before culling. Expression of genes implicated in the regulation of mesenchymal to epithelial transition (MET) was determined using a RT2 PCR profiler array, qRTPCR and bioinformatic analysis. Mice exhibited vaginal bleeding between 4 and 12 hours after P4 withdrawal, concomitant with detachment of the decidualised cell mass from the basal portion of the endometrial lining. Immunostaining for BrdU and pan cytokeratin revealed evidence of epithelial cell proliferation and migration. Cells that appeared to be in transition from a mesenchymal to an epithelial cell identity were identified within the stromal compartment. Analysis of mRNAs encoding genes expressed exclusively in the epithelial or stromal compartments, or implicated in MET, revealed dynamic changes in expression, consistent with a role for reprogramming of mesenchymal cells so that they could contribute to re-epithelialisation. These studies have provided novel insights into the cellular processes that contribute to re-epithelialisation post-menses implicating both epithelial cell migration and mesenchymal cell differentiation in restoration of an intact epithelial cell layer. These

  8. Dancing with Demographers. (United States)

    Robertson, Heather-Jane


    Demographic projections concerning the shortage of teachers in Canada, their pay scale, the feminization of teaching, the gender gap in salaries, and teacher autonomy have often been incorrect, or correct for the wrong reasons. Instead of relying on demographic predictions, teachers should contemplate who they really want to be professionally,…

  9. Evidence from a mouse model that epithelial cell migration and mesenchymal-epithelial transition contribute to rapid restoration of uterine tissue integrity during menstruation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fiona L Cousins

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In women dynamic changes in uterine tissue architecture occur during each menstrual cycle. Menses, characterised by the shedding of the upper functional layer of the endometrium, is the culmination of a cascade of irreversible changes in tissue function including stromal decidualisation, inflammation and production of degradative enzymes. The molecular mechanisms that contribute to the rapid restoration of tissue homeostasis at time of menses are poorly understood. METHODOLOGY: A modified mouse model of menses was developed to focus on the events occurring within the uterine lining during endometrial shedding/repair. Decidualisation, vaginal bleeding, tissue architecture and cell proliferation were evaluated at 4, 8, 12, and 24 hours after progesterone (P4 withdrawal; mice received a single injection of bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU 90 mins before culling. Expression of genes implicated in the regulation of mesenchymal to epithelial transition (MET was determined using a RT2 PCR profiler array, qRTPCR and bioinformatic analysis. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Mice exhibited vaginal bleeding between 4 and 12 hours after P4 withdrawal, concomitant with detachment of the decidualised cell mass from the basal portion of the endometrial lining. Immunostaining for BrdU and pan cytokeratin revealed evidence of epithelial cell proliferation and migration. Cells that appeared to be in transition from a mesenchymal to an epithelial cell identity were identified within the stromal compartment. Analysis of mRNAs encoding genes expressed exclusively in the epithelial or stromal compartments, or implicated in MET, revealed dynamic changes in expression, consistent with a role for reprogramming of mesenchymal cells so that they could contribute to re-epithelialisation. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These studies have provided novel insights into the cellular processes that contribute to re-epithelialisation post-menses implicating both epithelial cell migration and

  10. A High-Speed Target-Free Vision-Based Sensor for Bus Rapid Transit Viaduct Vibration Measurements Using CMT and ORB Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qijun Hu


    Full Text Available Bus Rapid Transit (BRT has become an increasing source of concern for public transportation of modern cities. Traditional contact sensing techniques during the process of health monitoring of BRT viaducts cannot overcome the deficiency that the normal free-flow of traffic would be blocked. Advances in computer vision technology provide a new line of thought for solving this problem. In this study, a high-speed target-free vision-based sensor is proposed to measure the vibration of structures without interrupting traffic. An improved keypoints matching algorithm based on consensus-based matching and tracking (CMT object tracking algorithm is adopted and further developed together with oriented brief (ORB keypoints detection algorithm for practicable and effective tracking of objects. Moreover, by synthesizing the existing scaling factor calculation methods, more rational approaches to reducing errors are implemented. The performance of the vision-based sensor is evaluated through a series of laboratory tests. Experimental tests with different target types, frequencies, amplitudes and motion patterns are conducted. The performance of the method is satisfactory, which indicates that the vision sensor can extract accurate structure vibration signals by tracking either artificial or natural targets. Field tests further demonstrate that the vision sensor is both practicable and reliable.

  11. A Usability Study of the Automatic Ticket Vending Machines for the Middle-aged and Elderly Patrons: The Case of the Taipei Mass Rapid Transit System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Hsin Lu


    Full Text Available This study explores the usability problems for the middle-aged and elderly users of the automatic ticket vending machines of Taipei Mass Rapid Transit System. Thirty two middle-aged and elderly users (16 men and 16 females were observed in their actual uses of the machines, and 9 of them (6 men and 3 women were interviewed afterwards. The results show that, first, most senior users observed in this study made mistakes at the first step of touching the screen that initiates the ticket buying process. Second, the feedback and voice guidance design need further improvement to facilitate the senior users’ operation of the machines. Based on the findings, this study recommends that: (1 the operation instruction may be improved by enhancing the color contrast and graphics complementing of caption and voice guidance; (2 the transaction interface should be simplified, avoiding using button symbol to show information, and the visual instruction should be supplemented with voice instructions; (3 operation feedback should be strengthened and in line with previous use experience. [Article content in Chinese

  12. Rapid change of chromomeric and pairing patterns of polytene chromosome tips in D. melanogaster: migration of polytene-nonpolytene transition zone? (United States)

    Roberts, P A


    The high variability of chromomeric patterns in near-terminal regions of polytene chromosome arms has been explored in a number of races, strains and hybrids of Drosophila melanogaster. Traditional explanations for tip differences between strains (differential compaction of chromatin, somatic or germinal deletion) are examined and, in the light of the reported observations, rejected. The range of polytene tip variability and rates of change in wild races are greater than has been supposed: strains formerly considered to be terminally deleted appear to gain terminal bands; others, formerly considered normal, appear to have lost them. Strains with high cell-to-cell tip variability are also described. Cell-to-cell variations, as well as much of the observed rapid changes in tip appearance, are probably due to heritable differences in the location of an abrupt transition zone between polytene and nonpolytene chromatin. A quantitative relationship between the amount of certain subterminal bands present and the frequency of tip association of nonhomologous chromosomes is shown and its possible significance for chromosome is shown and its possible for chromosome pairing discussed.

  13. The Heliopause Electrostatic Rapid Transit System (HERTS) Design, Trades, and Analyses Performed in a Two Year NASA Investigation of Electric Sail Propulsion Systems (United States)

    Wiegmann, Bruce M.


    The Heliopause Electrostatic Rapid Transit System (HERTS) was one of the seven total Phase II NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) that was down-selected in 2015 for continued funding and research. In Phase I our team learned that a spacecraft propelled by an Electric Sail (E-Sail) can travel great astronomical distances, such as to the Heliopause region of the solar system (approx. 100 to 120 AU) in approximately one quarter of the time (10 years) versus the time it took the Voyager spacecraft launched in 1977 (36 years). The completed work within the Phase II NIAC funded effort builds upon the work that was done in the Phase I NIAC and is focused on: 1) Testing of plasma interaction with a charged wire in a MSFC simulated solar environment vacuum test chamber. 2) Development of a Particle-in-Cell (PIC) models that are validated in the plasma testing and used to extrapolate to the E-Sail propulsion system design. 3) Conceptual design of a Technology Demonstration Mission (TDM) spacecraft developed to showcase E-Sail propulsion systems. 4) Down selection of both: a) Materials for a multi km length conductor and, b) Best configuration of the proposed conductor deployment subsystem. This paper will document the findings to date (June, 2017) of the above focused areas.

  14. Network integration modelling of feeder and BRT(bus rapid transit) to reduce the usage of private vehicles in Palembang’s suburban area (United States)

    Nur'afalia, D.; Afifa, F.; Rubianto, L.; Handayeni, K. D. M. E.


    The aim of this research is to determine the optimal feeder network route that integrates with BRT (Bus Rapid Transit). Palembang, a high growing population city with unresolved transportation demand sector. BRT as main public transportation could not fulfill people’s demand in transportation, especially in Alang-Alang Lebar sub-district. As an impact, the usage of private vehicles increases along the movement toward the city center. The concept of Network Integration that integrates feeder network with BRT is expected to be a solution to suppress the rate of private vehicles’ usage and to improve public transportation service, so that the use of BRT will be increased in the suburban area of Palembang. The method used to identifying the optimal route using Route Analysis method is route analysis using Tranetsim 0.4. The best route is obtained based on 156 movement samples. The result is 58,7% from 199 mobility’s potency of private vehicle usage’s can be reduced if there is a feeder network’s route in Alang-Alang Lebar’s sub-district. From the result, the existance of integration between feeder network and BRT is potential enough to reduce the usage of private vehicles and supports the sustainability of transportation mobility in Palembang City.

  15. [Recent demographic trends in Turkey]. (United States)

    Behar, C


    , contraceptive usage, and other indicators. Turkey thus appears to be divided into a region in which the demographic transition is well advanced and one where it is proceeding more slowly.

  16. Where is Nepal in the nutrition transition? (United States)

    Subedi, Yagya Prasad; Marais, Debbi; Newlands, David


    Nutrition transition is rapid in developing countries, but Nepalese transition is relatively unknown. This study aimed to describe nutrition transition in Nepal over the past 40 years by identifying the shifts in the Nepalese diets and nutritional status and the underlying shifts associated with this. Popkin's framework was used to identify shifts in Nepalese diet and the inter-relationship of diet with epidemiological, demographic and economic shifts. The current study used quantitative methodology including secondary data analysis based on food balance sheets, economic surveys and the government databases. The Nepalese diet is shifting away from agricultural staple based foods to modern processed foods with higher total energy, total fat, and sugar. The prevalence of overweight/obesity and diet related non-communicable diseases are increasing. Urbanisation is rapid and nutrition transition already advanced in urban area. The Nepalese economic structure has also changed shifting away from agricultural food supply system towards modern processing based food supply system. These changes in the Nepalese diet are triggered by income and urbanisation. The trade liberalisation has made processed foods, edible oil and sugar easily available at supermarkets and fast food outlets. It is clear that Nepal has now entered into the fourth stage of nutrition transition according to Popkin's framework. As a result, overweight, obesity and the prevalence of many noncommunicable diseases are all rapidly growing. A further study is recommended to identify whether urban versus rural, rich versus poor and educated versus uneducated families are experiencing the transition in similar way.

  17. Laboratory Demographics Lookup Tool (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This website provides demographic information about laboratories, including CLIA number, facility name and address, where the laboratory testing is performed, the...

  18. Gender inequalities from the demographic perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devedžić Mirjana


    Full Text Available The paper analyzes the meaning of the phrase "the woman’s status in the society" that is recognized in demography as an important cultural factor of demographic development and transitional changes. The analysis indicates qualitative shifts in the woman’s status and simultaneously reveals its importance at present, not only in traditional, but also in modern and developed societies. On the other hand, it explains the importance of sex as a biodemographic determinant, and introduces the concept of gender that sheds another light on the concepts of sex and woman’s status in the society and integrates them. Gender regimes that subsume the inferiority of women in public and private social structures are examined from demographic perspective, albeit only in those phenomenological aspects that can be supported by demographic research, theories, and analyses. To this end, the paper analyzes the effects of strengthening gender equalities on the fertility and mortality transitions, the gender’s impact on the population distribution by sex in South Asian countries, and highlights the key role of gender in interpreting certain social and economic structures. It also stresses the establishing of gender equality as an important element of population policies. The global dimension of the patriarchal society is illustrated through a series of examples of demographic phenomena from various societies. Gender regimes underlie all of these phenomena. The paper puts foreword certain theoretical hypotheses about gender inequalities, and finds their connections with demographic behaviors and demographic indicators. Finally, it summarizes the role of demography in gender (inequality research and the demographic perspective of the way and the speed the demographic equality is being established. Demography is seen as an irreplaceable discipline in examining gender inequalities, especially at the global level. With the advance of qualitative methods in demography

  19. Rapid change of fecal microbiome and disappearance of Clostridium difficile in a colonized infant after transition from breast milk to cow milk. (United States)

    Davis, Manli Y; Zhang, Husen; Brannan, Lera E; Carman, Robert J; Boone, James H


    Clostridium difficile is the most common known cause of antibiotic-associated diarrhea. Upon the disturbance of gut microbiota by antibiotics, C. difficile establishes growth and releases toxins A and B, which cause tissue damage in the host. The symptoms of C. difficile infection disease range from mild diarrhea to pseudomembranous colitis and toxic megacolon. Interestingly, 10-50 % of infants are asymptomatic carriers of C. difficile. This longitudinal study of the C. difficile colonization in an infant revealed the dynamics of C. difficile presence in gut microbiota. Fifty fecal samples, collected weekly between 5.5 and 17 months of age from a female infant who was an asymptomatic carrier of C. difficile, were analyzed by 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Colonization switching between toxigenic and non-toxigenic C. difficile strains as well as more than 100,000-fold fluctuations of C. difficile counts were observed. C. difficile toxins were detected during the testing period in some infant stool samples, but the infant never had diarrhea. Although fecal microbiota was stable during breast feeding, a dramatic and permanent change of microbiota composition was observed within 5 days of the transition from human milk to cow milk. A rapid decline and eventual disappearance of C. difficile coincided with weaning at 12.5 months. An increase in the relative abundance of Bacteroides spp., Blautia spp., Parabacteroides spp., Coprococcus spp., Ruminococcus spp., and Oscillospira spp. and a decrease of Bifidobacterium spp., Lactobacillus spp., Escherichia spp., and Clostridium spp. were observed during weaning. The change in microbiome composition was accompanied by a gradual increase of fecal pH from 5.5 to 7. The bacterial groups that are less abundant in early infancy, and that increase in relative abundance after weaning, likely are responsible for the expulsion of C. difficile.

  20. Coastal conduit in southwestern Hudson Bay (Canada) in summer: Rapid transit of freshwater and significant loss of colored dissolved organic matter (United States)

    Granskog, Mats A.; MacDonald, Robie W.; Kuzyk, Zou Zou A.; Senneville, Simon; Mundy, Christopher-John; Barber, David G.; Stern, Gary A.; Saucier, Francois


    Distributions of freshwater (sea-ice melt and runoff) were investigated along inshore-offshore sections in southwestern Hudson Bay for fall conditions. Conductivity-temperature-density profiles and bottle samples collected for salinity, oxygen isotope (δ18O), and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) analyses were used to discriminate between contributions of river water (RW) and sea-ice melt (SIM). Stations had a fresh summer surface mixed layer 5-25 m thick overlying a cold subsurface layer indicative of the previous winter's polar mixed layer (PML). The fraction of RW decreased strongly with distance from shore, while the opposite was true for SIM. The majority of RW was constrained in a coastal domain within 100-150 km from shore, which, because of high alongshore velocities, accounts for the majority of freshwater and volume transports. On the basis of freshwater inventories and composition, brine and RW accumulate in the PML over winter because of ice formation and downward mixing. The summer surface circulation results in an annual net export of SIM from the region. Residence times for freshwater components in the southwestern sector of the bay, based on currents derived from a 3-D ocean model for Hudson Bay, are about 1-10 months, implying rapid transit of freshwater. Despite the short residence time for RW (1-3 months), CDOM is significantly photobleached and provides an unreliable tracer for RW. Photobleaching represents an important sink for dissolved organic carbon entering from rivers and could, in part, explain why Hudson Bay is only a minor sink for atmospheric CO2 in the open water season.

  1. Stepped MS(All) Relied Transition (SMART): An approach to rapidly determine optimal multiple reaction monitoring mass spectrometry parameters for small molecules. (United States)

    Ye, Hui; Zhu, Lin; Wang, Lin; Liu, Huiying; Zhang, Jun; Wu, Mengqiu; Wang, Guangji; Hao, Haiping


    Multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) is a universal approach for quantitative analysis because of its high specificity and sensitivity. Nevertheless, optimization of MRM parameters remains as a time and labor-intensive task particularly in multiplexed quantitative analysis of small molecules in complex mixtures. In this study, we have developed an approach named Stepped MS(All) Relied Transition (SMART) to predict the optimal MRM parameters of small molecules. SMART requires firstly a rapid and high-throughput analysis of samples using a Stepped MS(All) technique (sMS(All)) on a Q-TOF, which consists of serial MS(All) events acquired from low CE to gradually stepped-up CE values in a cycle. The optimal CE values can then be determined by comparing the extracted ion chromatograms for the ion pairs of interest among serial scans. The SMART-predicted parameters were found to agree well with the parameters optimized on a triple quadrupole from the same vendor using a mixture of standards. The parameters optimized on a triple quadrupole from a different vendor was also employed for comparison, and found to be linearly correlated with the SMART-predicted parameters, suggesting the potential applications of the SMART approach among different instrumental platforms. This approach was further validated by applying to simultaneous quantification of 31 herbal components in the plasma of rats treated with a herbal prescription. Because the sMS(All) acquisition can be accomplished in a single run for multiple components independent of standards, the SMART approach are expected to find its wide application in the multiplexed quantitative analysis of complex mixtures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. [Epidemiological transition in Latin America: a comparison of four countries]. (United States)

    Albala, C; Vio, F; Yáñez, M


    In the last decade, Latin America has experienced important transformations in its health conditions, due to demographic changes and a rapid urbanization process. To analyze socioeconomic, demographic and epidemiological changes in Chile, Guatemala, Mexico and Uruguay and relate them to the different stages in the demographic and epidemiological transition of these countries. Data was obtained from official information of local and international organizations such as Pan-American Health Organization, United Nations, Latin American Center for Demography (CELADE) and World Bank. Guatemala is in a pre-transition stage with a high proportion of communicable diseases as causes of death (61%) as compared with Mexico (22%), Chile (13%) and Uruguay (7%). Mexico is in a prolonged transition situation and Chile is close to Uruguay in a post-transitional stage. Despite decreasing rates of mortality, the proportion of deaths represented by chronic diseases and injuries has increased to over 30% in all countries, except Uruguay. Adjusted mortality rates for cardiovascular diseases are lower in Latin American countries, as compared to Canada. However, excepting Guatemala, there are differences in the pattern of cardiovascular disease, with a higher mortality due to cerebrovascular and a lower mortality due to coronary artery diseases. An increment in non communicable diseases is expected for the next decades in Latin America. Analysis of demographic and epidemiological transition is crucial to define health policies and to adequate health systems to the new situations.

  3. Beyond demographics is destiny: understanding economic mitigation strategies for demographic change in China


    Judy, John B.


    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited The favorable demographics that have contributed to China’s rapid economic growth are changing. China’s working-age population is currently peaking and within two decades its overall population will begin to shrink. In addition to a shrinking working-age population, China will see an increase in the elderly population and a rising dependency ratio. This demographic change may have an economically significant impact. If China’s enormous...

  4. Serbian demographers on demography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rašević Mirjana


    Full Text Available Introduction: The objective of this paper is to collect the opinions of the leading demographers in Serbia on four significant matters. The matters are: development, state and future of demography, the successfulness of researchers in this scientific discipline, improvement of the Stanovništvo journal, as well as the population priority of our society and range of population policies. Method: A qualitative interview was chosen as the instrument for data collection. Namely, a structured interview, based on nine questions was sent by e-mail to eleven addresses of relevant demographers in the second half of October 2013. The basic reason for sending questions by e-mail was the aspiration to obtain authentic replies which require time for contemplation. Ten completed questionnaires were returned within two weeks. On the one hand, an integral picture on the chosen themes for research was attempted to be obtained in the analysis of received opinions to certain groups of questions and on the other hand to portray the spectrum of different observations. The responses of our prominent demographers were analyzed and compared to clearly pronounced standpoints of eminent demographers published in world journals on similar themes and with findings of internet researches among members of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population. Results: The results show that there is a high level of consent among demographers in Serbia regarding the well positioning of demography in relation to other social studies and its good perspectives. The interviewed experts see the future of demography in its integration with a wide circle of sciences, the application of demography and/or greater engagement of researchers in carrying out public policies. However, the estimations of the interviewed demographers as regards the development and state of demography in Serbia are divided. Although a large number of topics had been listed, migrations and population

  5. Demographic Change and Transport

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haustein, Sonja; Siren, Anu Kristiina; Framke, Elisabeth

    This report is the literature review on demographic changes and transport of Work Package 1 of the EU project CONSOL, “CONcerns and SOLutions – Road Safety in the Ageing Societies” (contract period: 2011-2013). The report is a state-of-the art report that combines current knowledge with new...

  6. Country Demographic Profiles: Thailand. (United States)

    Bureau of the Census (DOC), Suitland, MD. Population Div.

    This profile of the population of Thailand contains 35 tables of selected demographic information, including size of population and estimates of fertility and mortality, beginning in 1950. An adjusted distribution of the population by age and sex is given for the latest census year, as well as for 1976. Projections of the number of women of…

  7. Rapid population growth. (United States)


    At the current rate of population growth, world population by 2000 is expected to reach 7 billion or more, with developing countries accounting for some 5.4 billion, and economically advanced nations accounting for 1.6 billion. 'Population explosion' is the result of falling mortality rates and continuing high birth rates. Many European countries, and Japan, have already completed what is termed as demographic transition, that is, birth rates have fallen to below 20 births per 1000 population, death rates to 10/1000 population, and annual growth rates are 1% or less; annual growth rates for less developed countries ranged from 2 to 3.5%. Less developed countries can be divided into 3 groups: 1) countries with both high birth and death rates; 2) countries with high birth rates and low death rates; and 3) countries with intermediate and declining birth rates and low death rates. Rapid population growth has serious economic consequences. It encourages inequities in income distribution; it limits rate of growth of gross national product by holding down level of savings and capital investments; it exerts pressure on agricultural production and land; and it creates unemployment problems. In addition, the quality of education for increasing number of chidren is adversely affected, as high proportions of children reduce the amount that can be spent for the education of each child out of the educational budget; the cost and adequacy of health and welfare services are affected in a similar way. Other serious consequences of rapid population growth are maternal death and illness, and physical and mental retardation of children of very poor families. It is very urgent that over a billion births be prevented in the next 30 years to reduce annual population growth rate from the current 2% to 1% per year.

  8. The people yet to come; avoiding the demographic trap. (United States)

    Brown, L R


    The demographic trap is defined as the condition where a nation has passed through the process of lowering death rates, but has not been able to lower birth rates before ecological carrying capacity is exceeded. A minimal estimate predicts that by the year 2000, 63 countries, or 1.1 billion people, will be trapped by starvation, dependence on imported food, and resulting economic and political instability. Such a country that failed to complete the demographic transition will fall back to the original stage, of high death as well as birth rates. Most nations in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa are at risk, notably Mexico, India, Nigeria, Ethiopia, because they already have falling living standards coupled with rapid growth rates. Most governments are unaware of the subtle signs that carrying capacity has been exceeded. Even those that are able to understand such events, often practice ineffective policies. For example, the U.S. has dropped U.N.F.P.A. support ostensibly because one nation, China, allowed forced abortions. On the other hand, some third world countries have initiated novel campaigns to reduce births, for example popular media campaigns in Mexico, free dissemination of birth control pills to all women in Brazil, and a separate family planning ministry in Zimbabwe.

  9. Rapid anthropogenic response to short-term aeolian-fluvial palaeoenvironmental changes during the Late Pleistocene-Holocene transition in the northern Negev Desert, Israel (United States)

    Roskin, Joel; Katra, Itzhak; Agha, Nuha; Goring-Morris, A. Nigel; Porat, Naomi; Barzilai, Omry


    Archaeological investigations along Nahal Sekher on the eastern edge of Israel's northwestern Negev Desert dunefield revealed concentrations of Epipalaeolithic campsites associated respectively with ancient water bodies. This study, aimed at better understanding the connections between these camps and the water bodies, is concerned with a cluster of Natufian sites. A comprehensive geomorphological study integrating field mapping, stratigraphic sections, sedimentological analysis and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages was conducted in the vicinity of a recently excavated Natufian campsite of Nahal Sekher VI whose artifacts directly overlay aeolian sand dated by OSL to 12.4 ± 0.7 and 11.7 ± 0.5 ka. Residual sequences of diagnostic silty sediments, defined here as low-energy fluvial fine-grained deposits (LFFDs), were identified within the drainage system of central Nahal Sekher around the Nahal Sekher VI site. LFFD sections were found to represent both shoreline and mid-water deposits. The thicker mid-water LFFD deposits (15.7 ± 0.7-10.7 ± 0.5 ka) date within the range of the Epipalaeolithic campsites, while the upper and shoreline LFFD units that thin out into the sands adjacent to the Nahal Sekher VI site display slightly younger ages (10.8 ± 0.4 ka-7.6 ± 0.4 ka). LFFD sedimentation by low-energy concentrated flow and standing-water developed as a result of proximal downstream dune-damming. These water bodies developed as a result of encroaching sand that initially crossed central Nahal Sekher by 15.7 ± 0.7 ka and probably intermittently blocked the course of the wadi. LFFD deposition was therefore a response to a unique combination of regional sand supply due to frequent powerful winds and does not represent climate change in the form of increased precipitation or temperature change. The chronostratigraphies affiliate the Natufian sites to the adjacent ancient water bodies. These relations reflect a rapid, but temporary anthropogenic response to a

  10. The demographic changes of the last quarter of century in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Veronica LITRA


    Full Text Available The year 1990 has delimited two different demographic periods in Romania: the first, defined as Stage 2 in the Demographic Transition Model (as in Population Education, USA, characterized by low mortality rates due to advances in medical, and high birth rates, resulting rapid population growth; after 1990, Romania moved to Stage 5, having a negative growth rate due to less births than deaths, and a negative net migration rate. Romania is experiencing a falling population with birth rates at 8.3 births per 1,000 persons and death rates at 11.4 per 1,000 persons in 2014. The total fertility rate fell significantly below the replacement level of generations (1.4 live births per woman in 2014, reversing the proportion of elderly in detriment of the youth.

  11. EJSCREEN Demographic Indicators 2015 Public (United States)

    EJSCREEN uses demographic factors as very general indicators of a community's potential susceptibility to the types of environmental factors included in this screening tool. There are six demographic indicators: Demographic Index, Supplementary Demographic Index, Individuals under Age 5, Individuals over Age 64, Percent Low-Income, Linguistic Isolation, Percent Minority, and Less than High School Education.

  12. [Recent demographic trends]. (United States)


    A review of demographic trends in Luxembourg in 1982 is presented. A decline in fertility, the first since 1977, is noted, together with an increase in divorce, as well as a negative migration balance for the first time since 1967. Topics covered include natural increase and migration, fertility, marriage and divorce, mortality, adoption, and legislation affecting the family. Special consideration is given to the mortality experience of those who were subjected to compulsory labor during World War II.

  13. A Statistical Assessment of Demographic Bonus towards Poverty Alleviation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamal Abdul Nasir


    Full Text Available The shift of birth and death rates from high to low level in any population is referred as demographic transition. Mechanically, the transition of a society creates more working member of its own population commonly called demographic bonus. This articleempirically explores the realistic soundness of demographic bonus in reducing the poverty level of the society. Three contrasting regions namely Eastern Asia, Central America and Oceania were selected for analytical purposes. The findings indicate that Eastern Asia and Oceania are currently facing the end of their transition whereas theCentral America is lagged behind in transition. Central America due to last runner in transition race is the sustained recipient of its own demographic bonus by the year 2030.On the basis of three mechanisms namely: labour supply, savings and human capital, the Eastern Asian region is found to be successful beneficiary of its own demographic gift which concludes that many million people have escaped from poverty. Under the right policy environment on the above three mechanisms, Eastern Asia experience indicates the realistic contribution of demographic bonus to reduce poverty.

  14. The mechanisms of transitions from natural convection and nucleate boiling to nucleate boiling or film boiling caused by rapid depressurization in highly subcooled water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakurai, Akira; Shiotsu, Masahiro; Hata, Koichi; Fukuda, Katsuya


    The mechanisms of transient boiling process including the transitions to nucleate boiling or film boiling from initial heat fluxes, q in , in natural convection and nucleate boiling regimes caused by exponentially decreasing system pressure with various decreasing periods, τ p on a horizontal cylinder in a pool of highly subcooled water were clarified. The transient boiling processes with different characteristics were divided into three groups for low and intermediate q in in natural convection regime, and for high q in in nucleate boiling regime. The transitions at maximum heat fluxes from low q in in natural convection regime to stable nucleate boiling regime occurred independently of the τ p values. The transitions from intermediate and high q in values in natural convection and nucleate boiling to stable film boiling occurred for short τ p values, although those to stable nucleate boiling occurred for tong τ p values. The CHF and corresponding surface superheat values at which the transition to film boiling occurred were considerably lower and higher than the steady-state values at the corresponding pressure during the depressurization respectively. It was suggested that the transitions to stable film boiling at transient critical heat fluxes from intermediate q in in natural convection and from high q in in nucleate boiling for short τ p occur due to explosive-like heterogeneous spontaneous nucleation (HSN). The photographs of typical vapor behavior due to the HSN during depressurization from natural convection regime for short τ p were shown. (author)

  15. EJSCREEN Version 1, Demographic Data (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This map service displays demographic data used in EJSCREEN. All demographic data were derived from American Community Survey 2006-2010 estimates. EJSCREEN is an...

  16. Process-based modelling of fluvial system response to rapid climate change: 2. application to the River Maas (The Netherlands) during the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bogaart, P.W.; Balen, van R.T.; Kasse, C.; Vandenberghe, J.


    A comprehensive process-based numerical model of catchment hydrology and alluvial channel dynamics is applied to the evolution of the river Maas during the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition. Palaeo-climatological reconstructions based on a number of climatic and environmental proxies are combined

  17. Single and Double Infrared Transitions in Rapid Vapor Deposited Parahydrogen Solids: Application to Sample Thickness Determination and Quantitative Infrared Absorption Spectroscopy

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Tam, Simon


    ...) solid from its infrared (IR) absorption spectrum. Millimeters-thick pH2 solids of exceptional optical clarity can be produced by the rapid vapor deposition method M.E. Fajardo and S. Tam, J. Chem. Phys. 108, 4237 (1998...

  18. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture. (United States)

    Querbes, Adrien; Vaesen, Krist; Houkes, Wybo


    Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

  19. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrien Querbes

    Full Text Available Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

  20. Demographic Evolution in Romania – Convergence or Peripherisation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Veronica Litra


    Full Text Available Romania began its demographic transition about one century later than the developed countries. We put the blame of this gap on the delayed economic, social and political development in comparison with the Western Europe. But also, it could not be forgotten the shift from a population forced and subdue by the totalitary regime, to a free people to decide when to have a child or how large should be the family. During transition, Romania has pointed many negative demographic evolutions, as compared with the other european countries. It may be said that the transition in Romania over the period 1990-2004 adjusted the classical pattern of demographic evolution. Not fully felt at this moment, we will probably find ourselves few decades later older, less, deprived of skilled labor force and unbalanced as gender ratio.

  1. Demographics and remote locations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coppus, G. [Dynawise Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)


    Within the next decade, the number of people leaving the workforce will exceed the number of new entrants. The demand for workers is expected to increase in Alberta due to oil sands industry growth. Sixty-four per cent of all responding federal, provincial, and municipal government organizations have reported shortages in their work environments, and almost 8 in 10 organizations predict they will continue to be understaffed in the next 3 to 5 years. Tightness in the general labour market will have an impact on employers in remote locations, and planning is essential to avoid the creation of a mercenary culture and a reliance on compensation. Challenges found in remote locations include high turnover rates among recent hires; critical gaps in service length; aggressive retirement; and the fact that the local population is often seen as unqualified for many industrial jobs. This Power Point presentation suggested that although decisions to join or quit a company are often based on considerations such as the organizational environment and amount of compensation, the relationship between employees and management is the most important attribute in many career decisions. Rigorous quantitative analysis of current demographics combined with forecasting analysis may help to forestall recruitment difficulties for many companies. Productivity analyses, and the effects of work overload on absenteeism, attrition and quality of workmanship must also be examined. Many companies are now focusing on retention and development strategies on mid-career staff to address depletion, as well as redesigning procedures to operate with less skilled staff. It was concluded that extra efforts are now being made to attract non-traditional employees, and non-traditional employment models are being considered by some companies. refs., tabs., figs.

  2. Demographic structure and macroeconomic trends


    Aksoy, Yunus; Basso, H.S.; Smith, Ronald; Grasl, Tobias


    We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long term\\ud trends of key macroeconomic variables using a Panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970-2014. The panel data variation assists the identification of demographic effects, while the dynamic structure,\\ud incorporating multiple channels of influence, uncovers long-term effects.\\ud We propose a theoretical model, relating demographics, innovation and\\ud growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current\\ud...

  3. Demographic Consequences of Defeating Aging


    Gavrilov, Leonid A.; Gavrilova, Natalia S.


    A common objection against starting a large-scale biomedical war on aging is the fear of catastrophic population consequences (overpopulation). This fear is only exacerbated by the fact that no detailed demographic projections for radical life extension scenario have been conducted so far. This study explores different demographic scenarios and population projections, in order to clarify what could be the demographic consequences of a successful biomedical war on aging. A general conclusion o...

  4. Highly efficient transition metal-free coupling of acid chlorides with terminal alkynes in [bmim]Br: A rapid route to access ynones using MgCl2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Navid Soltani Rad


    Full Text Available A simple, mild, highly efficient and transition metal-free protocol for synthesis of ynones in an ionic liquid is described. In this approach, the coupling reaction of different acid chlorides with terminal alkynes was efficiently carried out using 0.05 mol% MgCl2 in the presence of triethylamine in [bmim]Br at room temperature to afford the corresponding ynones in good to excellent yields. This method is highly efficient for various acid chlorides and alkynes including aliphatic, aromatic, and heteroaromatic substrates bearing different functional groups. The influence of some parameters in this reaction including type of ionic liquid, base and catalyst has been discussed.

  5. A Community Patient Demographic System


    Gabler, James M.; Simborg, Donald W.


    A Community Patient Demographic System is described. Its purpose is to link patient identification, demographic and insurance information among multiple organizations in a community or among multiple registration systems within the same organization. This function requires that there be a competent patient identification methodology and clear definition of local responsibilities for number assignment and database editing.

  6. Demographic Trends: Impact on Schools (United States)

    Chong, Sylvia N. Y.; Cheah, Horn Mun


    Background: Singapore is experiencing great demographic change. These demographic trends show fewer young people and declining birth rates, greater longevity for ageing generations and an increase in the number of non-Singaporean residents. Statistics also show that more than half of the total population increase in the last decades was…

  7. A rapid transition from ice covered CO2–rich waters to a biologically mediated CO2 sink in the eastern Weddell Gyre

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Geibert


    Full Text Available Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW, locally called Warm Deep Water (WDW, enters the Weddell Gyre in the southeast, roughly at 25° E to 30° E. In December 2002 and January 2003 we studied the effect of entrainment of WDW on the fugacity of carbon dioxide (fCO2 and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC in Weddell Sea surface waters. Ultimately the fCO2 difference across the sea surface drives air-sea fluxes of CO2. Deep CTD sections and surface transects of fCO2 were made along the Prime Meridian, a northwest-southeast section, and along 17° E to 23° E during cruise ANT XX/2 on FS Polarstern. Upward movement and entrainment of WDW into the winter mixed layer had significantly increased DIC and fCO2 below the sea ice along 0° W and 17° E to 23° E, notably in the southern Weddell Gyre. Nonetheless, the ice cover largely prevented outgassing of CO2 to the atmosphere. During and upon melting of the ice, biological activity rapidly reduced surface water fCO2 by up to 100 μatm, thus creating a sink for atmospheric CO2. Despite the tendency of the surfacing WDW to cause CO2 supersaturation, the Weddell Gyre may well be a CO2 sink on an annual basis due to this effective mechanism involving ice cover and ensuing biological fCO2 reduction. Dissolution of calcium carbonate (CaCO3 in melting sea ice may play a minor role in this rapid reduction of surface water fCO2.

  8. [Considerations concerning the theory of the demographic revolution. Its development in Cuba]. (United States)

    Hernandez Castellon, R


    A review of the world's literature on the demographic transition is presented. The author, in his analysis of the non-Marxist literature, suggests that considerable efforts have been made to update demographic transition theory in order to take into account recent demographic trends in developing countries. On the other hand, the Marxist literature is divided into studies in which attempts are made to develop general demographic theories and those in which the value of such theories is questioned. The paper concludes with a description of the demographic transition process as it has been experienced in Cuba, and it is noted that a major feature of this process has been a general trend toward a reduction in demographic differentials.

  9. The Heliopause Electrostatic Rapid Transit System (HERTS) - Design, Trades, and Analyses Performed in a Two Year NASA Investigation of Electric Sail Propulsion Systems (United States)

    Wiegmann, Bruce M.; Scheider, Todd; Heaton, Andrew; Vaughn, Jason; Stone, Nobie; Wright, Ken


    Personnel from NASA's MSFC have been investigating the feasibility of an advanced propulsion system known as the Electric Sail (E-Sail) for future scientific exploration missions. This team initially won a NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) Phase I NASA Innovative Advanced Concept (NIAC) award and then a two-year follow-on Phase II NIAC award in October 2015. This paper documents the findings from this three-year investigation. An Electric sail, a propellant-less propulsion system, uses solar wind ions to rapidly travel either to deep space or the inner solar system. Scientific spacecraft could reach Pluto in 5 years, or the boundary of the solar system in ten to twelve years compared to the thirty-five plus years the Voyager spacecraft took. The team's recent focuses have been: 1) Developing a Particle in Cell (PIC) numeric engineering model from MSFC's experimental data on the interaction between simulated solar wind and a charged bare wire that can be applied to a variety of missions, 2) Determining what missions could benefit from this revolutionary propulsion system, 3) Conceptualizing spacecraft designs for various tasks: to reach the solar system's edge, to orbit the sun as Heliophysics sentinels, or to examine a multitude of asteroids.

  10. Eating habits of a population undergoing a rapid dietary transition: portion sizes of traditional and non-traditional foods and beverages consumed by Inuit adults in Nunavut, Canada (United States)


    Background To determine the portion sizes of traditional and non-traditional foods being consumed by Inuit adults in three remote communities in Nunavut, Canada. Methods A cross-sectional study was carried out between June and October, 2008. Trained field workers collected dietary data using a culturally appropriate, validated quantitative food frequency questionnaire (QFFQ) developed specifically for the study population. Results Caribou, muktuk (whale blubber and skin) and Arctic char (salmon family), were the most commonly consumed traditional foods; mean portion sizes for traditional foods ranged from 10 g for fermented seal fat to 424 g for fried caribou. Fried bannock and white bread were consumed by >85% of participants; mean portion sizes for these foods were 189 g and 70 g, respectively. Sugar-sweetened beverages and energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods were also widely consumed. Mean portion sizes for regular pop and sweetened juices with added sugar were 663 g and 572 g, respectively. Mean portion sizes for potato chips, pilot biscuits, cakes, chocolate and cookies were 59 g, 59 g, 106 g, 59 g, and 46 g, respectively. Conclusions The present study provides further evidence of the nutrition transition that is occurring among Inuit in the Canadian Arctic. It also highlights a number of foods and beverages that could be targeted in future nutritional intervention programs aimed at obesity and diet-related chronic disease prevention in these and other Inuit communities. PMID:23724920

  11. [The demographic potential of Russia]. (United States)

    Vishnevskii, A


    This is a general review of current demographic trends in Russia. The author analyzes the decline in population size that is taking place at the end of the twentieth century, and traces its origins as far back as the disturbances associated with World War I, the Communist revolution, and the civil war that followed it. Political repression during the Stalinist period and the tribulations experienced during World War II also contributed to the current demographic crisis. The author discusses the changes in migration patterns and the declining fertility and increasing mortality rates. The decline in life expectancy is also addressed. Some comparisons are made with the demographic situation in other European countries.

  12. EJSCREEN Demographic Indicators 2015 Public (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — EJSCREEN uses demographic factors as very general indicators of a community's potential susceptibility to the types of environmental factors included in this...

  13. EJSCREEN Demographic Indicators 2016 Public (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — EJSCREEN uses demographic factors as very general indicators of a community's potential susceptibility to the types of environmental factors included in this...

  14. The age demographics of academic librarians a profession apart

    CERN Document Server

    Wilder, Stanley


    The Age Demographics of Academic Librarians: A Profession Apart discusses the current demographics of librarianship in North America and examines how a huge retiree rate will affect the profession. With the average age of librarians increasing dramatically since 1990, this book examines the changes that will have to take place in your library, such as recruiting, training, and working with a smaller staff. The Age Demographics of Academic Librarians provides you with insights on how to make your library's transition easier when several of your colleagues leave your library. Valuable and intelligent, The Age Demographics of Academic Librarians discusses trends through easy-to-read charts, tables, and comprehensive data analysis. Exploring possible reasons for the anomalies of this trend, this book explores several surprising facts, such as: 16 percent of the 1995 American Research Libraries population of librarians will retire by the year 2000, another 16 percent between 2000 and 2005, 24 percent between 2005 ...

  15. Demographic resilience of territorial island birds to extinction: the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Since 1600, a disproportionate number of avian extinctions have occurred among flightless and island-dwelling species. Some of these happened very rapidly, implying that such populations had low resilience to perturbation. In managing insular populations, there is a need to be able to predict their demographic ...

  16. The demographic implications of nomadic herdsmen and farmers ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper examined the demographic implications resulting from nomadic herdsmen and farmers clashes in Nigeria. Relevant published texts across the country and the Malthusian theory provided the leverage for the study. It revealed that the Nigeria's population is dynamic and growing at a very rapid rate compared to ...

  17. Transition Icons for Time-Series Visualization and Exploratory Analysis. (United States)

    Nickerson, Paul V; Baharloo, Raheleh; Wanigatunga, Amal A; Manini, Todd M; Tighe, Patrick J; Rashidi, Parisa


    The modern healthcare landscape has seen the rapid emergence of techniques and devices that temporally monitor and record physiological signals. The prevalence of time-series data within the healthcare field necessitates the development of methods that can analyze the data in order to draw meaningful conclusions. Time-series behavior is notoriously difficult to intuitively understand due to its intrinsic high-dimensionality, which is compounded in the case of analyzing groups of time series collected from different patients. Our framework, which we call transition icons, renders common patterns in a visual format useful for understanding the shared behavior within groups of time series. Transition icons are adept at detecting and displaying subtle differences and similarities, e.g., between measurements taken from patients receiving different treatment strategies or stratified by demographics. We introduce various methods that collectively allow for exploratory analysis of groups of time series, while being free of distribution assumptions and including simple heuristics for parameter determination. Our technique extracts discrete transition patterns from symbolic aggregate approXimation representations, and compiles transition frequencies into a bag of patterns constructed for each group. These transition frequencies are normalized and aligned in icon form to intuitively display the underlying patterns. We demonstrate the transition icon technique for two time-series datasets-postoperative pain scores, and hip-worn accelerometer activity counts. We believe transition icons can be an important tool for researchers approaching time-series data, as they give rich and intuitive information about collective time-series behaviors.

  18. Understanding the Demographic Differences in Neighborhood Walking Supports. (United States)

    Carlson, Susan A; Watson, Kathleen B; Paul, Prabasaj; Schmid, Thomas L; Fulton, Janet E


    Information about how presence and usefulness of neighborhood supports for walking differs by demographic characteristics can help guide community strategies to promote walking. Reported presence and usefulness of neighborhood supports (shops, transit stops, sidewalks, parks, interesting things to look at, well-lit at night, low crime rate, and cars following speed limit) were examined in 3973 U.S. adults who completed the 2014 SummerStyles survey. Percentage reporting neighborhood supports as present ranged from 25.3% (SE = 0.8) for interesting things to 55.8% (SE = 1.0) for low crime rate. Percentage who reported a support as useful ranged from 24.6% (SE = 1.4) for transit stops to 79.0% (SE = 1.1) for sidewalks among those with the support. This percentage ranged from 13.4% (SE = 0.8) for transit stops to 52.8% (SE = 1.1) for shops among those without the support. One or more demographic differences were observed for the presence of each support, and the presence of all supports differed by education and metro status. Demographic patterns were less clear when examining usefulness and patterns often differed by support type and presence. Presence and usefulness of neighborhood supports for walking can differ by type and demographic characteristics. Recognizing these difference can help communities plan and implement strategies to promote walking.

  19. Demographics. (United States)

    Gillis, Artha J; Bath, Eraka


    There is a large proportion of minority youth involved in the juvenile justice system. Disproportionate minority contact (DMC) occurs when the proportion of any ethnic group is higher at any given stage in the juvenile justice process than the proportion of this group in the general population. There are several theories explaining the presence and persistence of DMC. This article reviews the history of DMC and the theories and implications of this problem. It discusses several targets for interventions designed to reduce DMC and offer resources in this area. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Departure Interval Optimization of Electric Bus Rapid Transit Considering Level of Service%考虑服务水平的纯电动快速公交发车间隔优化研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王雪然; 刘文峰; 李斌; 张沫


    With the electric vehicles applied in the field of bus rapid transit,due to the special operational needs of charging or battery swap for electric vehicles,the traditional methods of departure interval optimization are no longer applicable.Considering the level of service and charging time constraints,this paper studies the departure interval optimization of electric bus rapid transit.Firstly,the service level evaluation system associated with energy consumption is established by analyzing the correlation between service level indexes and energy consumption;secondly,considering the level of service and charging time constraints,the departure interval optimization model is established by setting energy consumption as the objective function;finally,taking line 1 of Jinhua E-BRT as an example to examine the effect of the optimization model,the optimization results demonstrate that compared with the current operation plans the energy consumption is saved by 6.21% under the premise of the same level of service.Therefore,the departure interval optimization method of electric bus rapid transit considering level of service established in this paper has certain practical significance and provides an important guidance for reducing the energy consumption under a certain service level.%随着电动汽车被引入城市快速公交领域,由于其充换电等特殊的运营调度需求,在发车间隔计划等制定过程中传统方法不再适用.本文在综合考虑服务水平和车辆充电时间约束条件下,对纯电动快速公交(E-BRT)发车间隔优化进行了研究.根据分析服务水平指标项与车辆能耗的相关性,建立了面向能耗评估的服务水平评价体系;综合考虑服务水平和充电时间约束条件,以车辆运营能耗为目标函数,建立了发车间隔优化模型;基于金华市E-BRT1号线运营数据进行实例验证,结果表明,在满足相同服务水平情况下,本文提出的优化模型可以节约能耗6.21%.

  1. Demographics in Astronomy and Astrophysics (United States)

    Ulvestad, James S.


    Astronomy has been undergoing a significant demographic shift over the last several decades, as shown by data presented in the 2000 National Research Council (NRC) report "Federal Funding of Astronomical Research," and the 2010 NRC report, "New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics." For example, the number of advertised postdoctoral positions in astronomy has increased much more rapldly than the number of faculty positions, contributing to a holding pattern of early-career astronomers in multiple postdoctoral positions. This talk will summarize some of the current demographic trends in astronomy, including information about gender and ethnic diversity, and describe some of the possible implications for the future. I thank the members of the Astro2010 Demographics Study Group, as well as numerous white-paper contributors to Astro2010, for providing data and analyses.

  2. Social demographic change and autism. (United States)

    Liu, Kayuet; Zerubavel, Noam; Bearman, Peter


    Parental age at child's birth--which has increased for U.S. children in the 1992-2000 birth cohorts--is strongly associated with an increased risk of autism. By turning a social demographic lens on the historical patterning of concordance among twin pairs, we identify a central mechanism for this association: de novo mutations, which are deletions, insertions, and duplications of DNA in the germ cells that are not present in the parents' DNA. Along the way, we show that a demographic eye on the rising prevalence of autism leads to three major discoveries. First, the estimated heritability of autism has been dramatically overstated. Second, heritability estimates can change over remarkably short periods of time because of increases in germ cell mutations. Third, social demographic change can yield genetic changes that, at the population level, combine to contribute to the increased prevalence of autism.

  3. Child survival and the demographic "trap". (United States)

    Kalish, S


    A debate within the UK public health community has centered around the feasibility of campaigns to improve child survival rates in Africa in the absence of equally aggressive efforts to increase family planning acceptance. The central spokesperson in this debate, Maurice King of the University of Leeds, has argued that population growth in sub-Saharan countries is undermining the carrying capacity of available resources and threatening ecological collapse. These countries are not exhibiting the characteristic demographic transition pattern, in which declining death rates eventually create conditions conducive to lower birth rates. Instead, they have fallen into a "demographic trap " in which population increases are outstripping growth in food production. To remedy this situation, King advocates the introduction of the concept of sustainability of the ecological foundations of health into the World Health Organizations's official definition of health. Richard Jolly of UNICEF has countered King's articles with the insistence that UNICEF has long supported child survival within the broader context of family planning provision and advocacy of birth spacing.

  4. Are transition economy workers underpaid?


    Adamchik, Vera A.; Brada, Josef C.; King, Arthur E.


    We examine the extent to which workers in transition and developed market economies are able to obtain wages that fully reflect their skills and labor force characteristics. We find that workers in two transition economies, the Czech Republic and Poland, are able to better attain the maximum wage available than are workers in a sample of developed market economies. This greater wage-setting efficiency in the transition economies ap-pears to be more the result of social and demographic charact...

  5. Logistics Dynamics and Demographic Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klumpp, Matthias; Abidi, Hella; Bioly, Sascha; Buchkremer, Rüdiger; Ebener, Stefan; Sandhaus, Gregor; Freitag, Michael; Kotzab, Herbert; Pannek, Jürgen


    Change and dynamics in logistics are interestingly driven at the same time by external as well as internal forces. This contribution outlines a big data literature review methodology to overview recognizable external changes and analyzes the interaction of one major trend—demographic change—further

  6. Are Demographics the Nation's Destiny? (United States)

    Glass, Gene V.


    In this article, the author discusses the demographic trends affecting America's public schools. As an expert on empirical evaluation of education, the author believes the major debates over vouchers, charter schools, bilingual education, and other issues are not really about preparing the next generation to compete with China or India, or about…

  7. Automatic Control of Personal Rapid Transit Vehicles (United States)

    Smith, P. D.


    The requirements for automatic longitudinal control of a string of closely packed personal vehicles are outlined. Optimal control theory is used to design feedback controllers for strings of vehicles. An important modification of the usual optimal control scheme is the inclusion of jerk in the cost functional. While the inclusion of the jerk term was considered, the effect of its inclusion was not sufficiently studied. Adding the jerk term will increase passenger comfort.

  8. Racial Diversity in the Suburbs: How Race-Neutral Responses to Demographic Change Perpetuate Inequity in Suburban School Districts (United States)

    Diem, Sarah; Welton, Anjalé D.; Frankenberg, Erica; Jellison Holme, Jennifer


    Suburbs across the US are experiencing dramatic demographic shifts, yet there is little research available on how suburban school districts are dealing with these changes. In this article, we examine the discourses surrounding race and demographic change in three suburban school districts that have been undergoing rapid demographic changes and…

  9. Demographic patterns and sustainable development in Ghana. (United States)

    Tawiah, E O


    There is a growing recognition that the present demographic patterns in sub-Saharan Africa, including Ghana, do not augur well for the achievement of sustainable development. Ghana is characterized by a youthful population, rapid population growth, uneven population distribution, high fertility, and rural-urban migration which has brought human numbers into collision with resources to sustain them. It is submitted that the issues discussed are equally applicable to the subregion as well. The estimated population in 1993 was about 16.4 million. The population of Ghana increased from 1970 to 1984 at a rate of growth of 2.6% per annum. The proliferation of small settlements has serious implications for sustainable development. Urban centers comprised about 12.9% of the total population in 1948, 23% in 1960, 28.3% in 1970, and 31.3% in 1984. The average woman in Ghana still has more than six children. The 1988 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey (GDHS) indicated that the median age at first marriage for women was 16.5 years. Contraceptive use is low in sub-Sahara Africa. Currently married women (15-49) currently using any modern method ranged from 1% in Burundi (1987) and Mali (1987) to 36% in Zimbabwe (1988/89). The rapid population growth in Ghana, coupled with the concentration of infrastructural facilities and job opportunities in the urban centers, has resulted in a massive rural-urban migration. Basic social facilities like health, water, housing, and electricity have been stretched to their breakpoints. The Government of Ghana initiated a major effort to put environmental issues on the priority agenda in March 1988. This led to the preparation of an Environmental Action Plan (EAP) in 1991 to address issues relating to the protection of the environment, but the need is still urgent to adopt relevant population policies as a basic strategy in sustainable development.

  10. Different routes of demographic changes in former Eastern bloc states at the turn of the 21st century based on the examples of Poland and Ukraine (United States)

    Flaga, Małgorzata


    The article concerns the most important demographic processes that took place in two post-communist countries, Poland and Ukraine, after 1990. These countries differ in terms of economic changes that they have gone through so far. In case of Poland we may consider it as a success in reforming the economy, despite the fact that it caused certain negative social phenomena, e.g. large unemployment. On the other hand, in Ukraine, economic crisis was not stopped, but it is also deepening and its results have become significant modifiers of population processes. The changes in population number, natural growth and migration in both countries are the subjects of detailed analyses. They were presented in the context of the "secondary demographic transition", which Poland and Ukraine entered rapidly at the beginning of 1990, along with economic transformation and social changes.

  11. Assistência pública de saúde no contexto da transição demográfica brasileira: exigências atuais e futuras The public healthcare system in the context of Brazil's demographic transition: current and future demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio da Cruz Gouveia Mendes


    Full Text Available Este estudo avalia a assistência hospitalar e ambulatorial e sua capacidade de responder às novas exigências neste contexto da transição demográfica brasileira. As informações foram obtidas dos estudos do IBGE, e sistemas de informações assistenciais do SUS (CNES, SIH e SIA. A redução das taxas de natalidade, fecundidade, mortalidade infantil e aumento da expectativa de vida ao nascer determinam ainda um crescimento demográfico, com redução da taxa de dependência, o que permite uma oportunidade para promover ajustes necessários. Entre 1999 e 2009, a população cresceu em mais 27,5 milhões de habitantes com redução de 26,7% dos leitos e 947 mil internações com distorções na distribuição por clínicas, mas com aumento da assistência de alta complexidade ambulatorial e hospitalar. Os resultados demonstram que vivemos um momento de transição do modelo assistencial que exige maior capacidade de planejamento do futuro da assistência à saúde, tornando mais complexa a rede assistencial e repensando o modelo de atenção à saúde, preparando-se para o grande crescimento da população idosa nas próximas décadas.This paper assesses inpatient and outpatient care and their capacity to respond to changing demands in the context of the demographic transition in Brazil. The data were obtained from studies by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE and databases in the National Health System (CNES, SIH, and SIA. The reduction in birth, fertility, and infant mortality rates and the increase in life expectancy at birth are still driving population growth, while decreasing the dependency rate, thereby providing the opportunity to make necessary adjustments. The population increased by more than 27.5 million from 1999 to 2009, with a 26.7% reduction in hospital beds and 947,000 hospitalizations, with distortions in the distribution by specialty, but with increases in high-complexity outpatient and inpatient care

  12. Baby Boomers and Beds: a Demographic Challenge for the Ages. (United States)

    Song, Zirui; Ferris, Timothy G


    The United States is facing a significant demographic transition, with about 10,000 baby boomers turning age 65 each day. At the same time, the nation is experiencing a similarly striking transition in hospital capacity, as the supply of hospital beds has declined in recent decades. The juxtaposition of population aging and hospital capacity portends a potentially widening divergence between supply and demand for hospital care. We provide a closer look at current hospital capacity and a rethinking of the future role of hospital beds in meeting the needs of an aging population.

  13. Feasibility of utilizing the SD BIOLINE Onchocerciasis IgG4 rapid test in onchocerciasis surveillance in Senegal (United States)

    Dieye, Yakou; Barrett, Kelsey L.; Gerth-Guyette, Emily; Di Giorgio, Laura; Golden, Allison; Faulx, Dunia; Kalnoky, Michael; Ndiaye, Marie Khemesse Ngom; Sy, Ngayo; Mané, Malang; Faye, Babacar; Sarr, Mamadou; Dioukhane, Elhadji Mamadou; Peck, Roger B.; Guinot, Philippe; de los Santos, Tala


    As effective onchocerciasis control efforts in Africa transition to elimination efforts, different diagnostic tools are required to support country programs. Senegal, with its long standing, successful control program, is transitioning to using the SD BIOLINE Onchocerciasis IgG4 (Ov16) rapid test over traditional skin snip microscopy. The aim of this study is to demonstrate the feasibility of integrating the Ov16 rapid test into onchocerciasis surveillance activities in Senegal, based on the following attributes of acceptability, usability, and cost. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 13 villages in southeastern Senegal in May 2016. Individuals 5 years and older were invited to participate in a demographic questionnaire, an Ov16 rapid test, a skin snip biopsy, and an acceptability interview. Rapid test technicians were interviewed and a costing analysis was conducted. Of 1,173 participants, 1,169 (99.7%) agreed to the rapid test while 383 (32.7%) agreed to skin snip microscopy. The sero-positivity rate of the rapid test among those tested was 2.6% with zero positives 10 years and younger. None of the 383 skin snips were positive for Ov microfilaria. Community members appreciated that the rapid test was performed quickly, was not painful, and provided reliable results. The total costs for this surveillance activity was $22,272.83, with a cost per test conducted at $3.14 for rapid test, $7.58 for skin snip microscopy, and $13.43 for shared costs. If no participants had refused skin snip microscopy, the total cost per method with shared costs would have been around $16 per person tested. In this area with low onchocerciasis sero-positivity, there was high acceptability and perceived value of the rapid test by community members and technicians. This study provides evidence of the feasibility of implementing the Ov16 rapid test in Senegal and may be informative to other country programs transitioning to Ov16 serologic tools. PMID:28972982

  14. Feasibility of utilizing the SD BIOLINE Onchocerciasis IgG4 rapid test in onchocerciasis surveillance in Senegal.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yakou Dieye


    Full Text Available As effective onchocerciasis control efforts in Africa transition to elimination efforts, different diagnostic tools are required to support country programs. Senegal, with its long standing, successful control program, is transitioning to using the SD BIOLINE Onchocerciasis IgG4 (Ov16 rapid test over traditional skin snip microscopy. The aim of this study is to demonstrate the feasibility of integrating the Ov16 rapid test into onchocerciasis surveillance activities in Senegal, based on the following attributes of acceptability, usability, and cost. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 13 villages in southeastern Senegal in May 2016. Individuals 5 years and older were invited to participate in a demographic questionnaire, an Ov16 rapid test, a skin snip biopsy, and an acceptability interview. Rapid test technicians were interviewed and a costing analysis was conducted. Of 1,173 participants, 1,169 (99.7% agreed to the rapid test while 383 (32.7% agreed to skin snip microscopy. The sero-positivity rate of the rapid test among those tested was 2.6% with zero positives 10 years and younger. None of the 383 skin snips were positive for Ov microfilaria. Community members appreciated that the rapid test was performed quickly, was not painful, and provided reliable results. The total costs for this surveillance activity was $22,272.83, with a cost per test conducted at $3.14 for rapid test, $7.58 for skin snip microscopy, and $13.43 for shared costs. If no participants had refused skin snip microscopy, the total cost per method with shared costs would have been around $16 per person tested. In this area with low onchocerciasis sero-positivity, there was high acceptability and perceived value of the rapid test by community members and technicians. This study provides evidence of the feasibility of implementing the Ov16 rapid test in Senegal and may be informative to other country programs transitioning to Ov16 serologic tools.

  15. Feasibility of utilizing the SD BIOLINE Onchocerciasis IgG4 rapid test in onchocerciasis surveillance in Senegal. (United States)

    Dieye, Yakou; Storey, Helen L; Barrett, Kelsey L; Gerth-Guyette, Emily; Di Giorgio, Laura; Golden, Allison; Faulx, Dunia; Kalnoky, Michael; Ndiaye, Marie Khemesse Ngom; Sy, Ngayo; Mané, Malang; Faye, Babacar; Sarr, Mamadou; Dioukhane, Elhadji Mamadou; Peck, Roger B; Guinot, Philippe; de Los Santos, Tala


    As effective onchocerciasis control efforts in Africa transition to elimination efforts, different diagnostic tools are required to support country programs. Senegal, with its long standing, successful control program, is transitioning to using the SD BIOLINE Onchocerciasis IgG4 (Ov16) rapid test over traditional skin snip microscopy. The aim of this study is to demonstrate the feasibility of integrating the Ov16 rapid test into onchocerciasis surveillance activities in Senegal, based on the following attributes of acceptability, usability, and cost. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 13 villages in southeastern Senegal in May 2016. Individuals 5 years and older were invited to participate in a demographic questionnaire, an Ov16 rapid test, a skin snip biopsy, and an acceptability interview. Rapid test technicians were interviewed and a costing analysis was conducted. Of 1,173 participants, 1,169 (99.7%) agreed to the rapid test while 383 (32.7%) agreed to skin snip microscopy. The sero-positivity rate of the rapid test among those tested was 2.6% with zero positives 10 years and younger. None of the 383 skin snips were positive for Ov microfilaria. Community members appreciated that the rapid test was performed quickly, was not painful, and provided reliable results. The total costs for this surveillance activity was $22,272.83, with a cost per test conducted at $3.14 for rapid test, $7.58 for skin snip microscopy, and $13.43 for shared costs. If no participants had refused skin snip microscopy, the total cost per method with shared costs would have been around $16 per person tested. In this area with low onchocerciasis sero-positivity, there was high acceptability and perceived value of the rapid test by community members and technicians. This study provides evidence of the feasibility of implementing the Ov16 rapid test in Senegal and may be informative to other country programs transitioning to Ov16 serologic tools.

  16. Demographic stagnation and decline in Spain: A cause for concern?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serrano-Martínez José-María


    Full Text Available For years, the Spanish population has been rapidly ageing, showing signs of atony and stagnation. Between 1996 and 2007, in a phase of economic growth, the entry of foreign immigrants drove a global increase in population. But after the economic recession migratory flows show negative net balances. Our objective is to explain and confirm the demographic regression suffered by Spain. We are also interested in showing how the recent and intense immigration process has failed to generate significant changes in natural demographic characteristics and trends. National censuses, published by the National Institute of Statistics (INE, are our main source of demographic data. The analysis of the most recent relevant scientific literature has allowed us to compare opinions and discuss results. The data confirm an uncertain and worrying future for the Spanish population.

  17. Economic Effects of Demographic Ageing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Litra A.V.


    Full Text Available Romania goes through profound changes due to unprecedented demographic developments. As a result of declining birth rates and emigration after 1990, by the year 2060 is looming a possible doubling of the percentage of the population 65 years and over, from 15 to 30%, and the working age population to fall by about 30 percent. Deterioration of the relationship between labour force and inactive population leads to pressure on the public budget and tax system, strains on pension and social security systems, redefining consumer preferences, type and size of the saved or spent amounts, higher demand for healthcare services, increasing poverty risk for elderly households.

  18. Chiropractors in Finland – a demographic survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malmqvist Stefan


    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Finnish chiropractic profession is young and not fully accepted by Finnish healthcare authorities. The demographic profile and style of practice has not been described to date. However, as the profession seems to be under rapid development, it would be of interest to stakeholders, both chiropractic and political, to obtain a baseline description of this profession with a view to the development of future goals and strategies for the profession. The purpose of this study was to describe the chiropractic profession in Finland in relation to its demographic background, the demographics of their clinics, practice patterns, interactions with other health care practitioners and some of the professions' plans for the future. Methods A structured questionnaire survey was conducted in 2005, in which all 50 members of the Finnish Chiropractic Union were invited to participate. Results In all, 44 questionnaires were returned (response rate 88%. Eighty percent of the respondents were men, and 77% were aged 30 to 44 years old, most of whom graduated after 1990 with either a university-based bachelors' or masters' degree in chiropractic. Solo practice was their main practice pattern. The vast majority described their scope of practice to be based on a musculoskeletal approach, using the Diversified Technique, performing Soft Tissue Therapy and about two-thirds also used an Activator Instrument (mechanical adjusting instrument. The mean number of patient visits reported to have been seen weekly was 59 of which nine were new patients. Most practitioners found this number of patients satisfactory. At the initial consultation, 80% of respondents spent 30–45 minutes with their patients, 75% spent 20–30 minutes with "new old" patients and on subsequent visits 80% of respondents spent 15–30 minutes. Interactions with other health care professions were reasonably good and most of chiropractors intended to remain within the profession

  19. Relation Between Demographic Factors And Hospitalization In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Relation Between Demographic Factors And Hospitalization In Patients With Gastrointestinal Disorders, Using Quantail Regression Analysis. ... East African Journal of Public Health ... Objective: The aim of this study is to investigate relation between demographic factors and hospitalization in gastrointestinal disorders.

  20. Demographic Ageing on Croatian Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivo Nejašmić


    Full Text Available This paper analyses the changes in the population structure of the Croatian islands by age, warns of the degree of ageing, provides spatial differentiation of this process and presents perspective of ageing at the level of settlement. Typing of population ageing is based on scores and has seven types. The total island population in 2011 belongs to the type 5 – very old population. Almost a half of the settlements (out of 303 have been affected by the highest levels of ageing (types 6 and 7. It was found that a quarter of island settlements will become “dead villages” in a foreseeable future; most of them are on small islands but also in the interior of larger islands. These are villages decaying in every respect, in which the way of life, as we know it, veins and goes out. The present ageing villagers are their last residents in most cases. Eve¬rything suggests that demographic recovery of the islands is not possible with the forces in situ. It is important to strike a balance between the needs and opportunities in order to successfully organize life on the islands, both small and large ones, and the fact is that there is a continuing disparity, which is especially profound in small islands. A sensitive and selective approach is needed to overcome the unfavourable demographic trends. Therefore it is necessary to respect the particularities of indi¬vidual islands and island groups in devising development strategy. Solutions to the problems must come of the local and wider community in synergy with relevant professional and scientific institutions. However, if the solutions are not found or measures do not give results, if the islands are left to desorganisation and senilisation, a part of the islands will become a wasteland. With regard to the value of this area whose wealth are people in the first place, this would be an intolerable civilization decline.

  1. Health & Demographic Surveillance System profile: the Muzaffarpur-TMRC Health and Demographic Surveillance System. (United States)

    Malaviya, Paritosh; Picado, Albert; Hasker, Epco; Ostyn, Bart; Kansal, Sangeeta; Singh, Rudra Pratap; Shankar, Ravi; Boelaert, Marleen; Sundar, Shyam


    The Muzaffarpur-TMRC Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), established in 2007, was developed as an enlargement of the scope of a research collaboration on the project Visceral Leishmaniasis in Bihar, which had been ongoing since 2005. The HDSS is located in a visceral leishmaniasis (VL)-endemic area in the Muzaffarpur district of Bihar state in India. It is the only HDSS conducting research on VL, which is a vector-borne infectious disease transmitted by female phlebotomine sandflies and is fatal if left untreated. Currently the HDSS serves a population of over 105,000 in 66 villages. The HDSS collects data on vital events including pregnancies, births, deaths, migration and marriages, as well as other socio-economic indicators, at regular intervals. Incident VL cases are identified. The HDSS team is experienced in conducting both qualitative and quantitative studies, sample collection and rapid diagnostic tests in the field. In each village, volunteers connect the HDSS team with the community members. The Muzaffarpur-TMRC HDSS provides opportunities for studies on VL and other neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) and their interaction with demographic events such as migration. Queries related to research collaborations and data sharing can be sent to Dr Shyam Sundar at []. © The Author 2014; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  2. Asia's demographic miracle: 50 years of unprecedented change. (United States)

    Leete, R; Alam, I


    The demographic landscape of Asia has seen unprecedented changes over the past 50 years. The transition from high to low mortality and fertility rates has made the eventual stabilization of the world's population a real possibility. The demographic success of Asia is associated with the stunning economic and social changes that have taken place during this period. Aside from social and economic improvements, population and health policies also played a major part in shaping the region's demographic transformation. National programs made a substantial contribution to increasing contraceptive use, lowering fertility, and slowing population growth. The success of family planning programs was frequently supported by positive changes in the demand for children. As the initial impact of the recent financial and economic crisis has shown, the Asian demographic miracle cannot be taken for granted. Since mid-1997, the crisis has interrupted and reversed the region's remarkable development gains. Economic downturns often tend to affect the social sectors unevenly. Strengthening the provision of basic social services, including reproductive health and care of the elderly, particularly in poor nations, will remain a challenge in the next century. The establishment of goals, including in areas such as HIV/AIDS, will help Asian countries realize the vision of the International Conference on Population and Development¿s 20-year Programme of Action.

  3. Demographic upheavals in the former USSR. (United States)

    Haub, C


    Fertility and life expectancy have changed since the breakup of the Soviet republics in 1991 and continue to change very rapidly. Before 1991, the USSR was the fastest growing developed country in the world. Annual growth rates in the mid-1980s were 0.9% compared to only 0.1% in Europe or 1.1% in the US. Immigration did not greatly affect the USSR's growth rate. By 1993, the population had declined in 8 of the 15 former republics. Deaths exceeded births in Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Estonia, and Latvia, followed by Lithuania in 1994. The last census was conducted in 1989. Fertility declined in Russia from 1.9 in 1990 to 1.4 in 1993. Fertility has been low in Lithuania at 1.7, in the Ukraine at 1.6, in Latvia at 1.5, and in Estonia at 1.4. Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan have experienced fertility decline, which was affected by emigration to Russia and other countries after 1990. 25 million Russians have resided in the former republics in 1990. In Kazakhstan, the 160,000 more births than deaths were offset by 200,000 emigrants. Central republics with higher fertility experienced declines after 1990; for example, Kyrgyzstan declined from 3.7 in 1990 to 3.3 in 1993. Life expectancy for males in Russia in 1993 was 58.9 years, which was a decline from 63.8 years in 1990. About 50% of the decline in life expectancy was due to circulatory diseases, and about 25% was due to external causes such as accidents, suicide, and alcoholism. Infant mortality has been increasing since 1990; for example, it increased in the Ukraine from 12.9 in 1990 to 14.1 in 1992. Russia's population in 1993 experienced 700,000 more deaths than births. The demographic impact will be declining school enrollments and smaller employment among the working population to support the aged. The change to a market economy has been uneven in Russia, where it has advanced more rapidly than in the republics. It is unclear whether the declining birth rate and increasing mortality rates will continue, but

  4. Transitional Justice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gissel, Line Engbo

    This presentation builds on an earlier published article, 'Contemporary Transitional Justice: Normalising a Politics of Exception'. It argues that the field of transitional justice has undergone a shift in conceptualisation and hence practice. Transitional justice is presently understood to be th...... to be the provision of ordinary criminal justice in contexts of exceptional political transition.......This presentation builds on an earlier published article, 'Contemporary Transitional Justice: Normalising a Politics of Exception'. It argues that the field of transitional justice has undergone a shift in conceptualisation and hence practice. Transitional justice is presently understood...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available Major dysfunctionalities can arise from the demographic decline, both on a social level and from the perspective of the economic-financial evolution of the world’s states. The obvious aging of the industrialized states’ population overlapping the import of cheap workforce in the developing countries can start mutations whose consequences are somewhat predictable but discouraging. An accelerated urbanization of the states is foreseen, as well as the decrease of birthrates, negative external migration, increase of mortality and its stagnation in a larger value than that of the birthrate, and not least the population’s aging will hinder a part of the developing countries to sustain a high rhythm of long-term economical increase. The socialeconomic consequences will be reflected in the labor market, the householders’ amount of income as well as in the education’s level. All of these aspects call for a rethinking of the public politics, especially of the social insurance’s system and of the education, a reorientation of the economy based on the increase of specializing in production and productivity, as well as a financial stability unburdened by the politics’ interference in the business environment.

  6. Public health and demographic statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patrick, C.H.; Loebl, A.S.; Miller, F.L.; Ritchey, P.N. Jr.


    The purpose of this program is to assess the methodology and available data sources appropriate for use in analytical studies and environmental impact statements concerning the health effects of nuclear power plants. The techniques developed should be applicable as well to evaluation of the known risks of high levels of radiation exposure and of conflicting evidence on low-level effects, such as those associated with the normal operations of nuclear power plants. To accomplish this purpose, a two-pronged approach has been developed. The first involves a determination of the public health and demographic data sources of local, state, and federal origin that are available for use in analyses of health effects and environmental impact statements. The second part involves assessment of the methods used by epidemiologists, biostatisticians, and other scientists as found in the literature on health effects. This two-pronged approach provides a means of assessing the strength and shortcomings of studies of the impact of nuclear facilities on the health of the general population in a given locality

  7. Using demographic data to better interpret pitfall trap catches. (United States)

    Matalin, Andrey V; Makarov, Kirill V


    The results of pitfall trapping are often interpreted as abundance in a particular habitat. At the same time, there are numerous cases of almost unrealistically high catches of ground beetles in seemingly unsuitable sites. The correlation of catches by pitfall trapping with the true distribution and abundance of Carabidae needs corroboration. During a full year survey in 2006/07 in the Lake Elton region (Volgograd Area, Russia), 175 species of ground beetles were trapped. Considering the differences in demographic structure of the local populations, and not their abundances, three groups of species were recognized: residents, migrants and sporadic. In residents, the demographic structure of local populations is complete, and their habitats can be considered "residential". In migrants and sporadic species, the demographic structure of the local populations is incomplete, and their habitats can be considered "transit". Residents interact both with their prey and with each other in a particular habitat. Sporadic species are hardly important to a carabid community because of their low abundances. The contribution of migrants to the structure of carabid communities is not apparent and requires additional research. Migrants and sporadic species represent a "labile" component in ground beetles communities, as opposed to a "stable" component, represented by residents. The variability of the labile component substantially limits our interpretation of species diversity in carabid communities. Thus, the criteria for determining the most abundant, or dominant species inevitably vary because the abundance of migrants in some cases can be one order of magnitude higher than that of residents. The results of pitfall trapping adequately reflect the state of carabid communities only in zonal habitats, while azonal and disturbed habitats are merely transit ones for many species of ground beetles. A study of the demographic structure of local populations and assessment of the

  8. Transition management: origin, evolution, critique

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Rotmans (Jan); D.A. Loorbach (Derk); R. Kemp (René)


    textabstractTransition management has rapidly emerged over the past few years as a new approach to dealing with complex societal problems and governance in the context of these problems. In the Netherland, UK and Belgium, serious efforts have been and are being undertaken to develop transition

  9. The health and wellbeing needs of veterans: a rapid review. (United States)

    Oster, Candice; Morello, Andrea; Venning, Anthony; Redpath, Paula; Lawn, Sharon


    For the majority of serving members, life in the military has a positive effect on wellbeing. However, the type, intensity and duration of service, along with the transition from fulltime military to civilian life, may have a negative effect on veterans' wellbeing. Such negative consequences, alongside the growing veteran population, indicate the need for greater exploration of veterans' physical, mental and social wellbeing. The current paper reports on the findings of a rapid review of the literature on the health and wellbeing needs of veterans, commissioned by the Australian Department of Veterans' Affairs to inform future programs and services. The databases Embase, Medline, Cinahl, PubMed, Web of Science and Cochrane Database were searched for systematic reviews reporting on veterans' physical, mental and social wellbeing published in English in peer-reviewed journals. A total of 21 systematic reviews were included. The reviews reported on a range of mental, physical and social health problems affecting veterans. While there was limited information on prevalence rates of physical, mental and social health problems in veterans compared to civilian populations, the reviews demonstrated the interconnection between these domains and the effect of demographic and military service factors. A key finding of the review is the interconnection of the mental, physical, and social health of veterans, highlighting the importance that an integrated approach to veterans' wellbeing is adopted. It is suggested that understanding key factors, such as demographic factors and factors relating to military service, can support improved service provision for veterans.

  10. [Fertility transition in Brazil. Causes and consequences]. (United States)

    Carvalho, J A; Wong, L R


    This work examines the determinants and most important consequences of the Brazilian fertility decline. Brazil's total fertility rate declined from 6.2 in 1940 to around 3.5 in 1985. the decline began in the 1960s and amounted to 45% in about 20 years. The most rapid drop began in the late 1970s, with much of it concentrated in 2 specific periods: 1970-75 and 1980-85. The early period coincided with Brazil's so-called "Economic Miracle", a period of rapid growth accompanied however by deteriorating living conditions for the poorest population sectors. The second period coincided with the international economic crisis of the early 1980s, which was felt more strongly in Brazil than elsewhere in Latin America because of Brazil's greater degree of industrialization and closer integration into the world economy. Most of the fertility decline has been accomplished by use of just two contraceptive methods, oral contraceptives and sterilization, which together account for around 85% of contraceptive usage throughout Brazil. The third most common method, rhythm, accounts for just 6%. No reliable data on abortion are available, but it appears to be a common practice equally accessible to all socioeconomic strata despite greater associated health risks for poorer women. Brazil's fertility transition appears to have been a response to the process of proletarianization and urbanization underway in the country as well as to particular circumstances in the country. The most evident and immediate consequence of the continuous fertility decline over more than 20 years is the change in the age structure of the population. The proportions of children under 5 will decline from 14.4% in 1980 to 9.2% in 2010. The proportion aged 5-14 will decline from 24.5% to 17.4%, while the proportion aged 65 and over will increase from 4.0% to 5.6%. Brazil's recent demographic changes are scarcely reflected in development plans and political and social projects. There is almost no mention of the new

  11. Gender inequalities and demographic behavior. (United States)


    A summary was provided of the central findings about gender inequalities in Egypt, India, Ghana, and Kenya published by the Population Council in 1994. These countries exhibited gender inequalities in different ways: the legal, economic, and educational systems; family planning and reproductive health services; and the health care system. All countries had in common a high incidence of widowhood. Widowhood was linked with high levels of insecurity, which were linked with high fertility. Children thus became insurance in old age. In Ghana, women's insecurity was threatened through high levels of marital instability and polygyny. In Egypt, insecurity was translated into economic vulnerability because of legal discrimination against women when family systems were disrupted. In India and all four countries, insecurity was reflective of limited access to education, an impediment to economic autonomy. In all four countries, women's status was inferior due to limited control over reproductive decision making about childbearing limits and contraception. In India, the cultural devaluation of girls contributed to higher fertility to satisfy the desire for sons. In India and Egypt, family planning programs were dominated by male-run organizations that were more concerned about demographic objectives than reproductive health. The universal inequality was the burden women carry for contraception. Family planning programs have ignored the local realities of reproductive behavior, family structures, and gender relations. The assumption that husbands and wives have similar fertility goals or that fathers fully share the costs of children is mistaken in countries such as Ghana. Consequently, fertility has declined less than 13% in Ghana, but fertility has declined by over 30% in Kenya. Family planning programs must be aware of gender issues.

  12. [Maternal mortality: the demographic aspects]. (United States)

    Sanogo, D


    The World Health Organization (WHO) has defined maternal mortality (MM) as a death following a delivery or during the 42 day period following a prolonged or complicated delivery. This definition is ambiguous because it does not take into account the institutional causes (deficiencies) that lead to MM in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) nor does it reflect all the reasons leading to MM because of the lack of nationwide health information systems and the lack of accurate statistics. While developed countries can depend on the state to provide accurate statistics, developing countries depend on hospitals, health training centers and special surveys to provide such data which often leads to 25-50% gross underestimations of MM. The most recent WHO data (1989) shows that SSA has the highest MM rates worldwide, ranging from 500- 700/100,000 as compared to Asia with 55-650; Latin America with 110-210 and the developed countries with 10-48. The data for SSA doesn't reflect the true situation in the rural areas where MM rates are over 1000/1000,000. MM is a symptom of poor countries where women contribute to their own deaths through repeated pregnancies, causing significant socioeconomic losses to society. UNICEF (1988) has categorized the demographic factors as high risk for women based on: 1) the age of the mother, and 2) the number of pregnancies. Family planning (FP) reduces MM by preventing illegal abortions; it reduces the number of unwanted pregnancies and increases the earnings of a community by reducing the number of pregnant women. The experience of developed countries demonstrates how women have avoided high-risk and unwanted pregnancies.

  13. Public Pension Reform, Demographics, and Inequality


    von Weizsäcker, Robert K


    Starting from a simple, descriptive model of individual income, an explicit link between the age composition of a population and the personal distribution of incomes is established. Demographic effects on income inequality are derived. Next, a pay-as-you-go financed state pension system is introduced. The resulting government budget constraint entails interrelations between fiscal and demographic variables, causing an additional, indirect demographic impact on the distribution. This is shown ...

  14. Demographic change in Germany and reversal of spatial ageing patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swiaczny Frank


    Full Text Available The paper presents the result of a spatial analysis considering the effect of demographic ageing and ageing-in-place processes in Germany according to spatially differentiated ageing patterns among urban, sub-urban and rural counties up to 2025. As to the latest official population forecast counties of urban core regions will undergo a slower ageing process than other types of counties, resulting in a reversal of ageing patterns. Urban core areas in this analysis will gain demographically from their net migration surplus while suburban housing locations of the past will be no longer able to attract enough young migrants to compensate for their now rapidly ageing baby boomer generation. The process presented is typical for the fate of (suburban housing areas with homogenous populations under conditions of ageing and shrinking if spatial mobility in ageing population groups is declining.

  15. Demographic change in Germany and reversal of spatial ageing patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swiaczny F.


    Full Text Available The paper presents the result of a spatial analysis considering the effect of demographic ageing and ageing-in-place processes in Germany according to spatially differentiated ageing patterns among urban, sub-urban and rural counties up to 2025. As to the latest official population forecast counties of urban core regions will undergo a slower ageing process than other types of counties, resulting in a reversal of ageing patterns. Urban core areas in this analysis will gain demographically from their net migration surplus while suburban housing locations of the past will be no longer able to attract enough young migrants to compensate for their now rapidly ageing baby boomer generation. The process presented is typical for the fate of (suburban housing areas with homogenous populations under conditions of ageing and shrinking if spatial mobility in ageing population groups is declining.

  16. Rate of progression from first use to dependence on cocaine or opioids: a cross-substance examination of associated demographic, psychiatric, and childhood risk factors. (United States)

    Sartor, Carolyn E; Kranzler, Henry R; Gelernter, Joel


    A number of demographic factors, psychiatric disorders, and childhood risk factors have been associated with cocaine dependence (CD) and opioid dependence (OD), but little is known about their relevance to the rate at which dependence develops. Identification of the subpopulations at elevated risk for rapid development of dependence and the risk factors that accelerate the course of dependence is an important public health goal. Data were derived from cocaine dependent (n=6333) and opioid dependent (n=3513) participants in a multi-site study of substance dependence. Mean age was approximately 40 and 40% of participants were women; 51.9% of cocaine dependent participants and 29.5% of opioid dependent participants self-identified as Black/African-American. The time from first use to dependence was calculated for each substance and a range of demographic, psychiatric, and childhood risk factors were entered into ordinal logistic regression models to predict the (categorical) transition time to CD and OD. In both the cocaine and opioid models, conduct disorder and childhood physical abuse predicted rapid development of dependence and alcohol and nicotine dependence diagnoses were associated with slower progression to CD or OD. Blacks/African Americans were at greater risk than European Americans to progress rapidly to OD. Only a subset of factors known to be associated with CD and OD predicted the rate at which dependence developed. Nearly all were common to cocaine and opioids, suggesting that sources of influence on the timing of transitions to dependence are shared across the two substances. © 2013.

  17. Environmental stress, resource management and demographic change in Northern Tanzania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niboye, E.P.


    the management of resources both at global and local levels. We found out empirically that despite the dwindling natural resource base, the people in Arumeru still maintain their demographic dynamism. For them, it is a rational thing to do. The explanation for this phenomenon is not discrete, but spans the whole range of the population-resource continuum. From the demographic transition point of view, the society has not reached the threshold where child labour is valueless. In Arumeru, the children are still valued for their labour as they participate in both agro-pastoral related income generating activities. Further, children are still old age insurers. Thus, the age long traditions which favour the persistence of high fertility regimes are still in force. Having children is still a pleasure which costs nothing and hence the family size is rarely determined by the household's income. The interplay of proximate determinants of fertility is found to have an effect on the population increase in the district. People enter into marriage unions at very young ages, while the breastfeeding duration has drastically decreased in recent years. Furthermore, postpartum abstinence is no longer observed and incidences of pathological infertility have been tremendously reduced, thanks to modern medicine. All these factors support high fertility regimes. The argument that rapid population growth always leads to environmental decline and thus forces rural economies into diminishing returns, over-utilisation of resource and pauperisation is rejected. Despite the population increase and dwindling resource base in Arumeru, food security, rural incomes and standard of living have consistently improved throughout the century. The situation in the study area somehow accommodate the Boserupian model, where population growth triggers agricultural intensification, but in this case, the forces which triggers change did not emanate from within, but were externally generated. Institutional

  18. Demographic Disequilibrium in Early Twentieth Century Thailand: Falling Mortality, Rising Fertility, or Both? (United States)

    Carmichael, Gordon A


    Estimates of Thai crude birth and death rates date from 1920 when the former was around 20 per thousand higher than the latter, implying natural increase of 2 percent per annum. Such disequilibrium cannot have been the norm over the long term historical past, when population growth must have been comparatively slow. This paper explores the bases for likely past relative equilibrium between Siamese birth and death rates, then seeks to explain the disequilibrium apparent by 1920. Classic demographic transition theory postulates initially high birth and death rates, this equilibrium eventually being broken by falling mortality. In Thailand, however, there is likely to have been both significant mortality decline and appreciable fertility increase after 1850, as the virtual elimination of indigenous warfare, rapid growth of the export rice economy and the demise of slavery and corvée labour created a new domestic environment. Characterized by more dispersed, often frontier, settlement, this environment was unprecedentedly sedate and settled, afforded ordinary households a previously unknown level of control over their resources of labour, and generated optimism about prospects for the next generation.

  19. Health system strengthening in Cambodia-a case study of health policy response to social transition. (United States)

    Grundy, John; Khut, Qiu Yi; Oum, Sophal; Annear, Peter; Ky, Veng


    Cambodia, following decades of civil conflict and social and economic transition, has in the last 10 years developed health policy innovations in the areas of health contracting, health financing and health planning. This paper aims to outline recent social, epidemiological and demographic health trends in Cambodia, and on the basis of this outline, to analyse and discuss these policy responses to social transition. Sources of information included a literature review, participant observation in health planning development in Cambodia between 1993 and 2008, and comparative analysis of demographic health surveys between 2000 and 2005. In Cambodia there have been sharp but unequal improvements in child mortality, and persisting high maternal mortality rates. Data analysis demonstrates associations between location, education level and access to facility based care, suggesting the dominant role of socio-economic factors in determining access to facility based health care. These events are taking place against a background of rapid social transition in Cambodian history, including processes of decentralization, privatization and the development of open market economic systems. Primary policy responses of the Ministry of Health to social transition and associated health inequities include the establishment of health contracting, hospital health equity funds and public-private collaborations. Despite the internationally recognized health policy flexibility and innovation demonstrated in Cambodia, policy response still lags well behind the reality of social transition. In order to minimize the delay between transition and response, new policy making tactics are required in order to provide more flexible and timely responses to the ongoing social transition and its impacts on population health needs in the lowest socio-economic quintiles.

  20. [Urban development and the demographic situation in Chaco and its capital between 1960 and 1990]. (United States)

    Foschiatti De Dell'orto, A M


    "The large demographic growth registered in the Chaco province [of Argentina] at the beginning of this Century slowed down since the 1950s as a result of the successive economic crisis undergone by this province. The demographic response was the outmigration toward the more developed areas of the country and to the capital city of Chaco. A large share of Resistencia demographic growth is provided by this internal migration. This rapid increase makes inadequate the functional and the service structure of the city." (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

  1. Supporting Transition (United States)

    Qureshi, Asima; Petrucco, James


    Meadowbrook Primary School has explored the use of The Teacher Assessment in Primary Science (TAPS) to support transition, initially for transfer to secondary school and now for transition from Early Years Foundation Stage (EYFS) into Key Stage 1 (ages 5-7). This article will consider an example of a secondary transition project and discuss the…

  2. Rapid City Native American Population Needs Assessment. (United States)

    Farrokhi, Abdollah


    Interviews with 301 Native American households in Rapid City, South Dakota, examined demographic variables and attitudes and needs in the areas of education, housing, transportation, health care, recreation, and employment. The ultimate goals for Native American people are achieving empowerment and group determination through greater cultural…

  3. Demographic and Economic Changes and Postsecondary Education. (United States)

    Charner, Ivan

    The interaction of demographic and economic shifts has led to, and will continue to effect, changes in the postsecondary education system and institutions. Demographic shifts include aging of the population, more women in the paid labor force, and increased numbers of minorities. Economic shifts include the growth of the information sector,…

  4. 5 CFR 841.404 - Demographic factors. (United States)


    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Demographic factors. 841.404 Section 841.404 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT (CONTINUED) CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) FEDERAL EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT SYSTEM-GENERAL ADMINISTRATION Government Costs § 841.404 Demographic...

  5. Demographic Ranking of the Baltic Sea States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sluka N.


    Full Text Available The relevance of the study lies in the acute need to modernise the tools for a more accurate and comparable reflection of the demographic reality of spatial objects of different scales. This article aims to test the methods of “demographic rankings” developed by Yermakov and Shmakov. The method is based on the principles of indirect standardisation of the major demographic coefficients relative to the age structure.The article describes the first attempt to apply the method to the analysis of birth and mortality rates in 1995 and 2010 for 140 countries against the global average, and for the Baltic Sea states against the European average. The grouping of countries and the analysis of changes over the given period confirmed a number of demographic development trends and the persistence of wide territorial disparities in major indicators. The authors identify opposite trends in ranking based on the standardised birth (country consolidation at the level of averaged values and mortality (polarisation rates. The features of demographic process development in the Baltic regions states are described against the global and European background. The study confirmed the validity of the demographic ranking method, which can be instrumental in solving not only scientific but also practical tasks, including those in the field of demographic and social policy.

  6. Planet earth 1984-2034: a demographic vision. (United States)

    Bouvier, L F


    In recognition of 1984 as the year of both Orwell's famous futuristic novel and the International Population Conference following up the 1974 World Population Conference, this Bulletin examines the current state of world population and presents the author's speculations on what it might be 50 years from now. World population, now close to 4.8 billion and growing at 1.8%/year, is being shaped by 3 demographic phenomena: prolonged below-replacement fertility in developed nations, perhaps partly in response to the reduced need for workers in the emerging information era; rapid growth despite failing fertility in developing nations, due to earlier rapid mortality decline; and rapid urbanization in developing nations and unprecedented migration from poor to better-off nations. The author's assumptions for nondemographic factors related to population change in the next 50 years are no world war, nuclear or otherwise; global resource adequacy; rapid scientific and technological progress shared equitably; and the demise of capitalism and communism and greatly increased economic aid from advanced to less advanced nations. For 2034 the author envisages nations divided into service/information societies (4% of global population) where immigration balances low fertility to prevent population decline; industrialized nations (38% of total), with fertility close to or at replacement level and growth slowing; developing nations (43%), in sight of replacement level fertility; and least developed nations, with still critical demographic problems but only 15% of the world population. Total population will be 8.03 billion, but growth will be down to 0.8%/year and global zero growth is possible in another 50 years. This relatively optimistic scenario for 2034 will only be possible if mankind acts to see that the stated nondemographic assumptions are borne out.

  7. Socio-demographic predictors of sleep complaints in indigenous Siberians with a mixed economy. (United States)

    Wilson, Hannah J; Klimova, Tatiana M; Knuston, Kristen L; Fedorova, Valentina I; Fedorov, Afanasy; Yegorovna, Baltakhinova M; Leonard, William R


    Socio-demographic indicators closely relate to sleep in industrialized populations. However we know very little about how such factors impact sleep in populations undergoing industrialization. Within populations transitioning to the global economy, the preliminary evidence has found an inconsistent relationship between socio-demographics and sleep complaints across countries and social strata. Surveys were conducted on a sample of rural Sakha (Yakut) adults (n = 168) during the autumn of 2103 to assess variation in socio-demographics and sleep complaints, including trouble sleeping and daytime sleepiness. Socio-demographic variables included age, gender, socioeconomic measures, and markers of traditional/market-based lifestyle. We tested whether the socio-demographic variables predicted sleep complaints using bivariate analyses and multiple logistic regressions. Trouble sleeping was reported by 18.5% of the participants and excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) by 17.3%. Trouble sleeping was significantly predicted by older age, female gender, and mixing traditional and market-based lifestyles. EDS was not significantly predicted by any socio-demographic variable. These findings support the few large-scale studies that found inconsistent relationships between measures of socioeconomic status and sleep complaints in transitioning populations. Employing a mix of traditional and market-based lifestyles may leave Sakha in a space of vulnerability, leading to trouble sleeping. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Using demographic data to better interpret pitfall trap catches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Matalin


    Full Text Available The results of pitfall trapping are often interpreted as abundance in a particular habitat. At the same time, there are numerous cases of almost unrealistically high catches of ground beetles in seemingly unsuitable sites. The correlation of catches by pitfall trapping with the true distribution and abundance of Carabidae needs corroboration. During a full year survey in 2006/07 in the Lake Elton region (Volgograd Area, Russia, 175 species of ground beetles were trapped. Considering the differences in demographic structure of the local populations, and not their abundances, three groups of species were recognized: residents, migrants and sporadic. In residents, the demographic structure of local populations is complete, and their habitats can be considered “residential”. In migrants and sporadic species, the demographic structure of the local populations is incomplete, and their habitats can be considered “transit”. Residents interact both with their prey and with each other in a particular habitat. Sporadic species are hardly important to a carabid community because of their low abundances. The contribution of migrants to the structure of carabid communities is not apparent and requires additional research. Migrants and sporadic species represent a “labile” component in ground beetles communities, as opposed to a “stable” component, represented by residents. The variability of the labile component substantially limits our interpretation of species diversity in carabid communities. Thus, the criteria for determining the most abundant, or dominant species inevitably vary because the abundance of migrants in some cases can be one order of magnitude higher than that of residents. The results of pitfall trapping adequately reflect the state of carabid communities only in zonal habitats, while azonal and disturbed habitats are merely transit ones for many species of ground beetles. A study of the demographic structure of local

  9. Demographic tensions in Central America. (United States)


    This discussion of Central America focuses on the rapid growth of its population, its stagnating economy, and those countries that are socioeconomically advanced. Between 1950-85 the population of Central America tripled, from 9.1 million to 26. 4 million, due to marked mortality declines and the absence of off-setting fertility declines. The distribution of Central Americas's growing populations sets its population growth apart from that of other developing regions. Currently, almost half of all Central Americans live in cities. Although the average growth rate for Central American countries has fallen and is expected to drop further, the decline does not counterbalance the effect of the absolute rise in population numbers. The average annual growth rate of more than 3% annually in the 1960s fell to about 2.6% in recent years, but this decline is due primarily to socioeconomically advanced Costa Rica and Panama. Central America's age structure further complicates the population crisis. About 43% of Central Americans are under the age of 15. When the increasingly larger young population group enters it reproductive years, the potential for future growth (albeit the falling rate of population increase) is unparalleled. UN population projections show the region's population at 40 million by the year 2000. The 1973 oil crisis began a downward spiral for the buoyant post World War II Central American economy. Between 1950-79, real per capita income growth in Central America doubled, with Central American economies growing an average of 5.3% annually. By the early 1980s, overseas markets of the trade-dependent countries of Central America had dried up due to protectionism abroad and slumping basic commodity prices. These and other factors plunged Central America into its current economic malaise of falling real per capita income, rising unemployment, curtailed export led economic growth, and a rising cost of living. In general, economic growth in Central America

  10. "It's Like a Prison in There": Organizational Fragmentation in a Demographically Diversified Workplace. (United States)

    Zak, Michele Wender


    Describes how, when a vehicle maintenance unit of a public transit agency underwent extensive demographic diversification of its workforce, original workers escalated shop talk and horse play as vehicles of internal power struggles, leading to dysfunction and even violence. Argues that management failed to provide for the need for newly diverse…

  11. Rural demographic change, rising wages and the restructuring of Chinese agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Tianxiang; Yu, Wusheng; Baležentis, Tomas


    Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify the effects of recent demographic transition and rising labor costs on agricultural production structure and pattern in China during 1998-2012. Design/methodology/approach The authors, first, theoretically discuss the effects of changing relative...

  12. Transition radiation and transition scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ginzburg, V.L.


    Transition radiation is a process of a rather general character. It occurs when some source, which does not have a proper frequency (for example, a charge) moves at a constant velocity in an inhomogeneous and (or) nonstationary medium or near such a medium. The simplest type of transition radiation takes place when a charge crosses a boundary between two media (the role of one of the media may be played by vacuum). In the case of periodic variation of the medium, transition radiation possesses some specific features (resonance transition radiation or transition scattering). Transition scattering occurs, in particular, when a permittivity wave falls onto an nonmoving (fixed) charge. Transition scattering is closely connected with transition bremsstrahlung radiation. All these transition processes are essential for plasma physics. Transition radiation and transition scattering have analogues outside the framework of electrodynamics (like in the case of Vavilov-Cherenkov radiation). In the present report the corresponding range of phenomena is elucidated, as far as possible, in a generally physical aspect. (Auth.)

  13. Pays en transition

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Les périodes de transformation risquent de provoquer le chaos, mais elles sont également porteuses de rapides progrès sur le plan social et économique. Le CRDI est intervenu dans quelque 25 pays ayant amorcé une transition de la guerre à la paix, de la dictature à la démocratie ou d'une économie fermée à une.

  14. Lethality and Autonomous Systems: The Roboticist Demographic

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Moshkina, Lilia V; Arkin, Ronald C


    .... Army Research Office. The robotics researcher demographic, one of several targeted in this survey that includes policy makers, the military, and the general public, provides the data for this report...

  15. Demographic Characteristics Related To Wholesale Marketing Of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Demographic Characteristics Related To Wholesale Marketing Of Yam In Delta State, Nigeria. ... analysis reveals that wholesale yam marketing in the study area was male - dominated (78.8%), most of ... EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT

  16. Rural Household Demographics, Livelihoods and the Environment


    de Sherbinin, Alex; VanWey, Leah; McSweeney, Kendra; Aggarwal, Rimjhim; Barbieri, Alisson; Henry, Sabina; Hunter, Lori M.; Twine, Wayne


    This paper reviews and synthesizes findings from scholarly work on linkages among rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Using the livelihood approach as an organizing framework, we examine evidence on the multiple pathways linking environmental variables and the following demographic variables: fertility, migration, morbidity and mortality, and lifecycles. Although the review draws on studies from the entire developing world, we find the majority of micro-level studie...

  17. Phase transitions

    CERN Document Server

    Sole, Ricard V; Solé, Ricard V; Solé, Ricard V; Sol, Ricard V; Solé, Ricard V


    Phase transitions--changes between different states of organization in a complex system--have long helped to explain physics concepts, such as why water freezes into a solid or boils to become a gas. How might phase transitions shed light on important problems in biological and ecological complex systems? Exploring the origins and implications of sudden changes in nature and society, Phase Transitions examines different dynamical behaviors in a broad range of complex systems. Using a compelling set of examples, from gene networks and ant colonies to human language and the degradation of diverse ecosystems, the book illustrates the power of simple models to reveal how phase transitions occur. Introductory chapters provide the critical concepts and the simplest mathematical techniques required to study phase transitions. In a series of example-driven chapters, Ricard Solé shows how such concepts and techniques can be applied to the analysis and prediction of complex system behavior, including the origins of ...

  18. Men and Cosmetics: Social and Psychological Trends of an Emerging Demographic. (United States)

    Rieder, Evan A; Mu, Euphemia W; Brauer, Jeremy A


    Though still accounting for a small fraction of all cosmetic procedures in the United States, men are an emerging and rapidly expanding demographic in the field of aesthetic medicine. In this article we highlight the trends contributing to the rise of male aesthetic procedures in dermatology, touching on social influences, psychological motivations, and treatment outcomes.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arun Kumar Acharya


    Full Text Available This paper tries to explore the process of urbanization and spatial changes in demographic features in the Monterrey Metropolitan Region (MMR, Mexico. This city is the third largest urban sector in Mexico which has around 4 million population. It is also the industrial and economic capital of the country. The present study found that rapid urbanization in the metropolitan region has a close association with process of industrialization. In population distribution and composition, study found that the metropolitan region had its “demographic transition” during the years seventies and currently the region is taking advantages of demographic bonus cohort, i.e. a higher concentration of population in economic active groups compare to children and old age population. However, this paper indentified a higher imbalance in metropolitan demographic scenario. On the one hand, there is di-populization in the city center region and in other there is a steady increment of population in peri-urban region.

  20. Demographic aspects of social security in region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alla Gennad'evna Leont'eva


    Full Text Available This paper presents a situational analysis of the level of life safety in the field of demographic regions of the Ural Federal District. The analysis is based on data from the Federal Statistics and covers the period 2000-2010. We have developed a system of indicators for evaluating safety in the demographic sphere. We set the main threats to the social and economic stability in the regions. The system of thresholds includes three blocks: the reproduction of the population, marriage and family relationships and health. We have presented a quantitative description of the main threats. Identified priority areas of social protection, providing increased stability of the regional socio-economic development, reducing the likelihood of social conflicts and improve the demographic situation.

  1. A unified framework of demographic time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riffe, Tim; Schöley, Jonas; Villavicencio, Francisco

    Demographic thought and practice is largely conditioned by the Lexis diagram, a two-dimensional graphical representation of the identity between age, period, and birth cohort. This relationship does not account for remaining years of life or other related time measures, whose use in demographic...... research is both underrepresented and incompletely situated. We describe a three-dimensional relationship between six different measures of demographic time: chronological age, time to death, lifespan, time of birth, time of death, and period. We describe four identities among subsets of these six measures......, and a full identity that relates the six of them. One of these identities is the age-period-cohort identity, while the other three are relatively novel. We provide a topological overview of the diagrams that pertain to these identities. The 3-d geometric representation of the full six-way identity...

  2. Rapid shallow breathing (United States)

    Tachypnea; Breathing - rapid and shallow; Fast shallow breathing; Respiratory rate - rapid and shallow ... Shallow, rapid breathing has many possible medical causes, including: Asthma Blood clot in an artery in the ...

  3. [The beginning of the Cuban demographic revolution]. (United States)

    Hernandez Castellon, R


    The characteristics of the Cuban demographic revolution associated with the main economic, political, and social changes in the country are analyzed. The authors begin with a brief historical outline of the political-economic situation in the country in the middle of the 19th century. There is emphasis on the dependency of the Cuban economy and its monoproducer nature (with sugar being the major export). This was due to the Spanish colonization and to the subsequent American neocolonization. The discovery of the cause for yellow fever by a Cuban physician and the sanitation campaign conducted by the Americans contributed to a diminishing of mortality. A great migratory flow occurred due to the price of sugar in the world market. This must have influenced Cuban demographic patterns which are a major factor linked to the demographic revolution. The influence on proliferation of urbanization and educational trends is emphasized. The low participation in economic activities of women during the early part of the century did affect fertility levels. The trends in mortality throughout the period 1907-43 are pointed out. It was found that 1 major aspect which had a bearing on Cuban demographic patterns was the 2 large migratory flows. An analysis of growth rates in the population--which also confirms the demographic changes in Cuba--is presented. It is concluded that the 4th decade of this century witnessed Cuba's entry in a new stage of the demographic revolution, a stage in which decreased fertility and mortality go together to create a new period. (author's)

  4. Demographics, political power and economic growth. (United States)

    Holtz-eakin, D


    "Growth theory may be used to predict the response of saving, capital formation, and output growth to large demographic shifts. Such large shifts would also be expected to alter the demand for government services and the desired levels of taxation in the population. This paper extends the overlapping-generations model of economic growth to predict the evolution of government tax and spending policy through the course of a major demographic shift. Simulations suggest that this approach may yield valuable insights into the evolution of policy in the United States and other industrialized economies." excerpt

  5. Physical activity patterns in Greenland: A country in transition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl-Petersen, Inger; Jørgensen, Marit E; Bjerregaard, Peter


    To examine differences in physical activity patterns among Inuit in Greenland in relation to social transition. The Inuit in Greenland are an indigenous population in the circumpolar north who are experiencing rapid social transition.......To examine differences in physical activity patterns among Inuit in Greenland in relation to social transition. The Inuit in Greenland are an indigenous population in the circumpolar north who are experiencing rapid social transition....

  6. Transit transparency. (United States)


    Public transit agencies have employed intelligent systems for determining : schedules and routes and for monitoring the real-time location and status of their : vehicle fleets for nearly two decades. But until recently, the data generated by : daily ...

  7. Correlates of rapid neuroleptic response in male patients with schizophrenia. (United States)

    Petrie, E C; Faustman, W O; Moses, J A; Lombrozo, L; Csernansky, J G


    Correlates of neuroleptic response latency were assessed in 16 male schizophrenic inpatients during 4 weeks of fixed dose (20 mg/day) haloperidol treatment. Rapid responders showed a mean 40% reduction in Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) positive symptom scores by day 10 of treatment. Rapid responders had significantly lower plasma homovanillic acid (pHVA) concentrations compared to non-rapid responders during week 4 of haloperidol treatment. However, rapid versus non-rapid responders did not differ with respect to demographics, baseline positive or negative BPRS symptom scores, performance on tests of neuropsychological function, or mean plasma haloperidol concentrations.

  8. From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden? : Regional Trends of Population Aging in Russia


    Matytsin, Mikhail; Moorty, Lalita; Richter, Kaspar


    Do regions with higher working age populations grow faster? This paper examines this question using data from Russian regions and finds evidence that demographic trends influence regional growth convergence. In other words, keeping other factors constant, poorer regions grow faster than richer regions, and some of the growth convergence is explained by demographic changes: faster growth in...

  9. Evidence of nutrition transition in Southern Africa. (United States)

    Nnyepi, Maria S; Gwisai, Namo; Lekgoa, Malebogo; Seru, Tumelo


    Nutrition transition is characterised by shift to highly refined diets high in fat, salt and caloric sweeteners and low in fibre in rapidly growing economies. Dietary shifts occur almost concurrently with demographic and epidemiologic shifts, urbanisation and industrialisation and together contribute to increased prevalence of nutrition related (NR)-non-communicable disease (NCR). The emergence of nutrition transition in Southern Africa countries (SAC) was examined using anthropometric, NCD prevalence, and food consumption data. The findings reveal growing prevalence of overweight and obesity (OWOB) across SAC, with national prevalence estimated between 30 and 60 % in all but two SAC. Overweight prevalence in excess of 60 % has been reported in some sub-population groups. Hypertension prevalence of at least 30 % has also been reported. Further, the prevalence of OWOB and hypertension in many SAC exceeds that of HIV and is often at par with stunting in children. NCD are equally serious public health problems as stunting and HIV. Collectively, NR-NCD explain 20-31 % of mortality for Botswana, South Africa, Swaziland, Mozambique and Zambia. At least 72 % of adults in SAC have fewer servings of fruit and vegetable servings daily than recommended. Additionally, adults in SAC do poorly in physical activity; 31-75 % do not exercise regularly. Not surprisingly, 15-40 % of adults in SAC have at least three risk factors of CVD. SAC are grappling with NR-NCD which threaten to surpass infectious diseases burden. SAC are at various levels in interventions for moving their populations to stage 5, but there is room for much improvement.

  10. Do we need demographic data to forecast plant population dynamics? (United States)

    Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Adler, Peter B.


    Rapid environmental change has generated growing interest in forecasts of future population trajectories. Traditional population models built with detailed demographic observations from one study site can address the impacts of environmental change at particular locations, but are difficult to scale up to the landscape and regional scales relevant to management decisions. An alternative is to build models using population-level data that are much easier to collect over broad spatial scales than individual-level data. However, it is unknown whether models built using population-level data adequately capture the effects of density-dependence and environmental forcing that are necessary to generate skillful forecasts.Here, we test the consequences of aggregating individual responses when forecasting the population states (percent cover) and trajectories of four perennial grass species in a semi-arid grassland in Montana, USA. We parameterized two population models for each species, one based on individual-level data (survival, growth and recruitment) and one on population-level data (percent cover), and compared their forecasting accuracy and forecast horizons with and without the inclusion of climate covariates. For both models, we used Bayesian ridge regression to weight the influence of climate covariates for optimal prediction.In the absence of climate effects, we found no significant difference between the forecast accuracy of models based on individual-level data and models based on population-level data. Climate effects were weak, but increased forecast accuracy for two species. Increases in accuracy with climate covariates were similar between model types.In our case study, percent cover models generated forecasts as accurate as those from a demographic model. For the goal of forecasting, models based on aggregated individual-level data may offer a practical alternative to data-intensive demographic models. Long time series of percent cover data already exist

  11. Effects of demographic structure on key properties of stochastic density-independent population dynamics. (United States)

    Vindenes, Yngvild; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar


    The development of stochastic demography has largely been based on age structured populations, although other types of demographic structure, especially permanent and dynamic heterogeneity, are likely common in natural populations. The combination of stochasticity and demographic structure is a challenge for analyses of population dynamics and extinction risk, because the population structure will fluctuate around the stable structure and the population size shows transient fluctuations. However, by using a diffusion approximation for the total reproductive value, density-independent dynamics of structured populations can be described with only three population parameters: the expected population growth rate, the environmental variance and the demographic variance. These parameters depend on population structure via the state-specific vital rates and transition rates. Once they are found, the diffusion approximation represents a substantial reduction in model complexity. Here, we review and compare the key population parameters across a wide range of demographic structure, from the case of no structure to the most general case of dynamic heterogeneity, and for both discrete and continuous types. We focus on the demographic variance, but also show how environmental stochasticity can be included. This study brings together results from recent models, each considering a specific type of population structure, and places them in a general framework for structured populations. Comparison across different types of demographic structure reveals that the reproductive value is an essential concept for understanding how population structure affects stochastic dynamics and extinction risk. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Environmental vs Demographic Stochasticity in Population Growth


    Braumann, C. A.


    Compares the effect on population growth of envinonmental stochasticity (random environmental variations described by stochastic differential equations) with demographic stochasticity (random variations in births and deaths described by branching processes and birth-and-death processes), in the density-independent and the density-dependent cases.

  13. The Demographics of Corporal Punishment in Texas (United States)

    Phillips, Stephanie


    This dissertation examined the student discipline policies of 1,025 Texas school districts, as well as data from the Texas Education Agency's Academic Excellence Indicator System in order to identify demographic patterns regarding corporal punishment policies in Texas schools. The study also studied the relationship between a district's corporal…

  14. Psychological and Demographic Correlates of Career Patterns (United States)

    Reitzle, Matthias; Korner, Astrid; Vondracek, Fred W.


    Recent years have witnessed a growing diversity of career patterns, resulting from the relative decline of stable employment. In the present study of 1368 employed and self-employed German adults career pattern diversity was assessed using nine pictograms. The goal was to identify psychological and demographic correlates of these patterns and to…

  15. Demographic development in ASEAN: a comparative overview. (United States)

    Herrin, A N; Pardoko, H; Lim, L L; Hongladorom, C


    A comparative overview of recent demographic developments in the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region is presented. Countries discussed include Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Separate consideration is given to mortality; fertility; and migration, spatial distribution, and employment. A final section is concerned with emerging issues and directions for population policy.

  16. Global demographic change and climate policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerlagh, Reyer; Jaimes, Richard; Motavasseli, Ali


    Between 1950 and 2017, world average life expectancy increased from below-50 to above-70, while the fertility rate dropped from 5 to about 2.5. We develop and calibrate an analytic climate-economy model with overlapping generations to study the effect of such demographic change on capital markets

  17. Demographic Group Differences in Adolescents' Time Attitudes (United States)

    Andretta, James R.; Worrell, Frank C.; Mello, Zena R.; Dixson, Dante D.; Baik, Sharon H.


    In the present study, we examined demographic differences in time attitudes in a sample of 293 adolescents. Time attitudes were measured using the Adolescent Time Attitude Scale (Mello & Worrell, 2007; Worrell, Mello, & Buhl, 2011), which assesses positive and negative attitudes toward the past, the present, and the future. Generally, African…

  18. Changing demographics and shrinking engineering enrollments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vetter, B.M.


    This paper reports that changing U.S. population demographics, poor academic preparation, and a decreasing interest in engineering among college student indicate possible shortages ahead, particularly among chemical and petroleum engineers. If we are to ensure an adequate future supply for the U.S., the engineering talent pool must be enlarged to include women and minority men

  19. Demographic and Socioeconomic Factors Influencing Malaria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Gyuk et al.

    demographic environment also plays a significant role in the ... Also, Child mortality rates are known to be higher in poor .... especially Christian women have better health education than ... urban life which could have some impacts on malaria prevention .... insecticides, leave in decent areas and are able to access medical ...

  20. Demographic characteristics of nuclear installations sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doumenc, A.; Faure, J.


    The selection of a nuclear installations sites can not be conceived without a deep analysis of demographic context. This analysis permits to define the critical populations around the installation and is an essential element of emergency plans. 1 tab., 2 refs. (F.M.)

  1. The demographic dynamics of small island societies. (United States)

    Cruz, M; D'ayala, P G; Marcus, E; Mcelroy, J L; Rossi, O


    Small islands and microstates have demonstrated a unique demographic pattern, including cycles of swift population increases or decreases well beyond natural birth and death rate balances. These demographic fluctuations have been produced largely by rises or declines in market opportunities. The process of taking advantage of favorable opportunities is always followed by a specialization in the given activity, without regard to environmental protection issues or a longterm strategy for economic development and resource diversification. The population growth phase is associated with increasing fragility of the economic base, whether because of the external dangers of overspecialization or induced internal dysfunctions such as disease and resource depletion. Eventually complete collapse results, causing chronic outmigration or even depopulation. Case histories of maritime basins in the Mediterranean, Caribbean, and Pacific show that the demographic structure of small islands has been particularly sensitive to changing economic opportunities, the vagaries of market forces, and cataclysmic natural events. Experience in these areas suggests that balanced economic development of small islands should be based on diversification of activities, thus ensuring a relatively stable pattern of growth, sound environmental management, and control of dangerous demographic fluctuations. Special attention should be given to the development of broad-based research and cooperation to integrate specific island opportunities within a regional network.

  2. The demographic situation in the European Union

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Nimwegen, N.; van der Erf, R.F.; Heering, E.L.; van Nimwegen, N.; van der Erf, R.


    This chapter focuses on the recent demographic situation and related population trends in the 27 Member States of the European Union. Some attention will also be paid to its two Candidate Countries, Croatia and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, as well as to the EFTA Countries (Iceland,

  3. demographic factors associated factors associated with malaria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    .8%) than those in other nce of 35.4% which was actors can predispose alence of malaria in a study were significantly eveloping guidelines and more effective disease endemic areas (Bashar et therefore attempts to rmation on possible demographic factors d out in four selected geria; Major Ibrahim B. Hospital Zaria, Hajiya.

  4. Demographic change in the northern forest (United States)

    Kenneth M. Johnson; Susan I. Stewart; Miranda H. Mockrin


    The Northern Forest spans more than 26 million acres across Maine, New Hampshire, New York, and Vermont. With densely settled urban cores, sprawling suburbs, struggling industrial and forest products towns, fast growing recreational areas, and isolated rural villages, the region includes many of the diverse strands that together compose the demographic fabric of the...

  5. Demographic monitoring of Wright fishhook cactus (United States)

    Ronald J. Kass


    Wright fishhook cactus (Sclerocactus wrightiae Benson) is a small barrel cactus endemic to the San Rafael Swell in south-central Utah. It was listed as an endangered species in 1979 due to its small population size, threats of over-collecting, and development associated with oil and gas. Demographic monitoring was initiated in 1993 with the following objectives: to...

  6. Clinico - demographic factors associated with diarrhoeal disease ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objectives: To determine the proportion of under-5 children presenting with diarrhoeal disease, and the clinicodemographic variables associated with the outcome at the emergency paediatric ward (CHER) of the Nnamdi Azikiwe University Teaching Hospital, Nnewi, South- East Nigeria. Methods: Clinical and demographic ...

  7. Demographic profile of patients diagnosed with intracranial ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. Background: Meningiomas are common brain tumours and display gender, racial and ethnic differences in their demographic profile. ... The mean age of patients was 45.7 ± 10.5 years with a female-to-male ratio of 3.8:1. The mean ...

  8. Demographic characteristics, leadership styles, job attitudes and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This purpose of this study was to investigate the predictive influence of demographic characteristics, leadership styles, job attitudes and personality on job performance among civil servants in Southwest Nigeria. The sample consists of 400 civil servants (males = 275, females = 125) randomly selected from Southwestern ...

  9. Demographic Development of the Island of Brač and the Islanders’ Tendency to Emigrate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Nakićen


    Full Text Available The paper analyses the basic demographic indicators of the Island of Brač and its settlements. Particular focus is on emigration from the island and its effect on demographic development of the island. The paper also presents the results of the survey conducted on the island in 2014. The aim of the survey was to investigate the level of satisfaction related to life on the island, and the respondents’ attitude toward emigration. Since the survey encompassed 151 permanent residents of the Island of Brač, the sample cannot be regarded as representative, so the survey results were not analysed separately, but rather incorporated in the demographic analysis. Throughout most of the 20th century, the Croatian insular area was characterised by intensive depopulation. Peak population on the islands was recorded in 1921, and it was followed by a long period of population decline, which lasted until 1991. However, the peak population on the Island of Brač was recorded in 1900, and it was also followed by a long period of depopulation, which ended in 1981. Official census data indicate that from 1981 until the present day Brač has recorded population increase, but that increase is actually fictitious (it was actually caused by “administrative immigration” – people increasingly registered their residence on the island in order to gain certain benefits regardless of their actual place of living or residence. Analysis of the population trends on the Island of Brač shows that in the period from 1857 to 1900, all the settlements on the island had population increase due to very favourable economic situation on the island brought by the vine-growing expansion. Economic prosperity of the island and high birth rates in the first phase of demographic transition resulted in rapid population growth. However, after the Wine Clause had been signed in 1891, and particularly after 1910, when phylloxera devastated the local vineyards, the insular economy

  10. Fibrocartilaginous embolic myelopathy: demographics, clinical presentation, and functional outcomes. (United States)

    Moore, Brittany J; Batterson, Anna M; Luetmer, Marianne T; Reeves, Ronald K


    Retrospective cohort study. To describe the demographics, clinical presentation, and functional outcomes of fibrocartilaginous embolic myelopathy (FCEM). Academic inpatient rehabilitation unit in the midwestern United States. We retrospectively searched our database to identify patients admitted between January 1, 1995 and March 31, 2016, with a high probability of FCEM. Demographic, clinical, and functional outcome measures, including Functional Independence Measure (FIM) information was obtained by chart review. We identified 31 patients with findings suggestive of FCEM (52% male), which was 2% of the nontraumatic spinal cord injury population admitted to inpatient rehabilitation. The age distribution was bimodal, with peaks in the second and sixth-to-seventh decades. The most common clinical presentation was acute pain and rapid progression of neurologic deficits consistent with a vascular myelopathy. Only three patients (10%) had FCEM documented as a diagnostic possibility. Most patients had paraplegia and neurologically incomplete injuries and were discharged to home. Nearly half of the patients required no assistive device for bladder management at discharge, but most were discharged with medications for bowel management. Median FIM walking locomotion score for all patients was 5, but most patients were discharged using a wheelchair for primary mobility. Median motor FIM subscale score was 36 at admission and 69 at discharge, with a median motor efficiency of 1.41. FCEM may be underdiagnosed and should be considered in those with the appropriate clinical presentation, because their functional outcomes may be more favorable than those with other causes of spinal cord infarction.

  11. Inferring the demographic history of African farmers and pygmy hunter-gatherers using a multilocus resequencing data set.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Etienne Patin


    Full Text Available The transition from hunting and gathering to farming involved a major cultural innovation that has spread rapidly over most of the globe in the last ten millennia. In sub-Saharan Africa, hunter-gatherers have begun to shift toward an agriculture-based lifestyle over the last 5,000 years. Only a few populations still base their mode of subsistence on hunting and gathering. The Pygmies are considered to be the largest group of mobile hunter-gatherers of Africa. They dwell in equatorial rainforests and are characterized by their short mean stature. However, little is known about the chronology of the demographic events-size changes, population splits, and gene flow--ultimately giving rise to contemporary Pygmy (Western and Eastern groups and neighboring agricultural populations. We studied the branching history of Pygmy hunter-gatherers and agricultural populations from Africa and estimated separation times and gene flow between these populations. We resequenced 24 independent noncoding regions across the genome, corresponding to a total of approximately 33 kb per individual, in 236 samples from seven Pygmy and five agricultural populations dispersed over the African continent. We used simulation-based inference to identify the historical model best fitting our data. The model identified included the early divergence of the ancestors of Pygmy hunter-gatherers and farming populations approximately 60,000 years ago, followed by a split of the Pygmies' ancestors into the Western and Eastern Pygmy groups approximately 20,000 years ago. Our findings increase knowledge of the history of the peopling of the African continent in a region lacking archaeological data. An appreciation of the demographic and adaptive history of African populations with different modes of subsistence should improve our understanding of the influence of human lifestyles on genome diversity.

  12. China's Environmental Governance in Transition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mol, A.P.J.; Carter, N.T.


    In the face of unprecedented economic and industrial growth levels, China is rapidly developing its system of environmental governance. Coming from a conventional command-and-control approach to environmental policy, which fitted well its centrally planned economy, transitional China is swiftly

  13. Relation Between Higher Physical Activity and Public Transit Use (United States)

    Vernez Moudon, Anne; Kang, Bumjoon; Hurvitz, Philip M.; Zhou, Chuan


    Objectives. We isolated physical activity attributable to transit use to examine issues of substitution between types of physical activity and potential confounding of transit-related walking with other walking. Methods. Physical activity and transit use data were collected in 2008 to 2009 from 693 Travel Assessment and Community study participants from King County, Washington, equipped with an accelerometer, a portable Global Positioning System, and a 7-day travel log. Physical activity was classified into transit- and non–transit-related walking and nonwalking time. Analyses compared physical activity by type between transit users and nonusers, between less and more frequent transit users, and between transit and nontransit days for transit users. Results. Transit users had more daily overall physical activity and more total walking than did nontransit users but did not differ on either non–transit-related walking or nonwalking physical activity. Most frequent transit users had more walking time than least frequent transit users. Higher physical activity levels for transit users were observed only on transit days, with 14.6 minutes (12.4 minutes when adjusted for demographics) of daily physical activity directly linked with transit use. Conclusions. Because transit use was directly related to higher physical activity, future research should examine whether substantive increases in transit access and use lead to more physical activity and related health improvements. PMID:24625142

  14. Demographic Change and Representation by Population in the Canadian House of Commons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Don Kerr


    delineation of boundaries of federal electoral districts. As argued in this paper,the traditional understandings and agreements that have shaped decisions relating to electoral districts are increasingly at odds with Canada’s emerging demographic realities. In a nation that is highly reliant on immigration in maintaining its population, the current representational order arguably penalizes regions of the country which are growing most rapidly, and in particular, where new immigrants are most likely to locate. The current paper also considers possible reforms in the manner in which electoral districts are drawn, which at a minimum could involve the use of more up to date and accurate demographic data.

  15. Rapid genetic restoration of a keystone species exhibiting delayed demographic response (United States)

    Genetic founder effects are often expected when animals colonize restored habitat in fragmented landscapes, but empirical data on genetic responses to restoration are limited. We examined the genetic response of banner-tailed kangaroo rats (Dipodomys spectabilis) to landscape-scale grassland restor...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available In the course of transition, former socialistic countries moved from planned to market economy. This journey typically started with sharp falls in economic activity in all transition countries, accompanied by deterioration of various social indicators. Hence, their main objective was the recovery of economic activity, i.e. increasing the economic growth rate, which in addition was supposed to enable catching up with the European developed economies. This growth movement is usually described by famous U-curve of transition. However, in spite of the efforts and reforms, all transition economies recorded various paces of recovery. This study discusses that difference, through various GDP indicators, - real GDP path, GDP growth rates path, the height of the GDP index achieved and the volatility of growth rates. Analysed in concert, these indicators suggest several other variations of the transition Ucurve, such as: the rapid-J group, the wide-U group and the L-curve group. Namely, almost three decades after the start of the transition, the differences persist, suggesting that some transition economies has not moved significantly towards catching up with the successful transition countries, or with the developed economies.

  17. Demographic variables in coal miners’ safety attitude (United States)

    Yin, Wen-wen; Wu, Xiang; Ci, Hui-Peng; Qin, Shu-Qi; Liu, Jia-Long


    To change unsafe behavior through adjusting people’s safety attitudes has become an important measure to prevent accidents. Demographic variables, as influential factors of safety attitude, are fundamental and essential for the research. This research does a questionnaire survey among coal mine industry workers, and makes variance analysis and correlation analysis of the results in light of age, length of working years, educational level and experiences of accidents. The results show that the coal miners’ age, length of working years and accident experiences correlate lowly with safety attitudes, and those older coal miners with longer working years have better safety attitude, as coal miners without experiences of accident do.However, educational level has nothing to do with the safety attitude. Therefore, during the process of safety management, coal miners with different demographic characteristics should be put more attention to.

  18. Demographic Structural Theory: 25 Years On

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jack A. Goldstone


    Full Text Available I am grateful to Cliodynamics for this special issue revisiting the ideas put forth in Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (Goldstone 1991, 2016 a quarter century ago. The two things that one could hope for in advancing any theory are that it proves capable of being advanced and enriched by other scholars, and that it proves capable of being applied in new ways and to new phenomena that were not anticipated. This issue gives examples of both, and shows how scholars are even now only beginning to tap the possibilities of Demographic Structural Theory (DST in explaining politics, history, and long-term economic trends. In this essay, I will tell the story of how demographic structural theory was conceived, relate its early reception among scholars, and comment on the important contributions by other scholars to this special issue.

  19. Simulation of Demographic Change in Palestinian Territories (United States)

    Sumour, M. A.; El-Astal, A. H.; Shabat, M. M.; Radwan, M. A.

    Mortality, birth rates and retirement play a major role in demographic changes. In most cases, mortality rates decreased in the past century without noticeable decrease in fertility rates, leading to a significant increase in population growth. In many poor countries like Palestinian Territories the number of births has fallen and the life expectancy increased. In this paper we concentrate on measuring, analyzing and extrapolating the age structure in Palestine a few decades ago into the future. A Fortran program has been designed and used for the simulation and analysis of our statistical data. This study of demographic change in Palestine has shown that Palestinians will have in future problems as the strongest age cohorts are the above-60-year olds. We therefore recommend the increase of both the retirement age and female employment.

  20. Is the demographic dividend an education dividend? (United States)

    Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús; Lutz, Wolfgang; Sanderson, Warren


    The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demography and population economics literature. The beneficial effect of changes in age structure after a decrease in fertility has become known as the "demographic dividend." In this article, we reassess the empirical evidence on the associations among economic growth, changes in age structure, labor force participation, and educational attainment. Using a global panel of countries, we find that after the effect of human capital dynamics is controlled for, no evidence exists that changes in age structure affect labor productivity. Our results imply that improvements in educational attainment are the key to explaining productivity and income growth and that a substantial portion of the demographic dividend is an education dividend.

  1. Running injuries - changing trends and demographics. (United States)

    Fields, Karl B


    Running injuries are common. Recently the demographic has changed, in that most runners in road races are older and injuries now include those more common in master runners. In particular, Achilles/calf injuries, iliotibial band injury, meniscus injury, and muscle injuries to the hamstrings and quadriceps represent higher percentages of the overall injury mix in recent epidemiologic studies compared with earlier ones. Evidence suggests that running mileage and previous injury are important predictors of running injury. Evidence-based research now helps guide the treatment of iliotibial band, patellofemoral syndrome, and Achilles tendinopathy. The use of topical nitroglycerin in tendinopathy and orthotics for the treatment of patellofemoral syndrome has moderate to strong evidence. Thus, more current knowledge about the changing demographics of runners and the application of research to guide treatment and, eventually, prevent running injury offers hope that clinicians can help reduce the high morbidity associated with long-distance running.

  2. Using Twitter data for demographic research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dilek Yildiz


    Full Text Available Background: Social media data is a promising source of social science data. However, deriving the demographic characteristics of users and dealing with the nonrandom, nonrepresentative populations from which they are drawn represent challenges for social scientists. Objective: Given the growing use of social media data in social science research, this paper asks two questions: 1 To what extent are findings obtained with social media data generalizable to broader populations, and 2 what is the best practice for estimating demographic information from Twitter data? Methods: Our analyses use information gathered from 979,992 geo-located Tweets sent by 22,356 unique users in South East England between 23 June and 4 July 2014. We estimate demographic characteristics of the Twitter users with the crowd-sourcing platform CrowdFlower and the image-recognition software Face++. To evaluate bias in the data, we run a series of log-linear models with offsets and calibrate the nonrepresentative sample of Twitter users with mid-year population estimates for South East England. Results: CrowdFlower proves to be more accurate than Face++ for the measurement of age, whereas both tools are highly reliable for measuring the sex of Twitter users. The calibration exercise allows bias correction in the age-, sex-, and location-specific population counts obtained from the Twitter population by augmenting Twitter data with mid-year population estimates. Contribution: The paper proposes best practices for estimating Twitter users' basic demographic characteristics and a calibration method to address the selection bias in the Twitter population, allowing researchers to generalize findings based on Twitter to the general population.

  3. [Demographic characteristics of consumers in Indonesia?]. (United States)

    Ananta, A


    "This paper presents a mosaic of business opportunities arising from the different demographic characteristics of the provinces in the western part of Indonesia. The author discusses the total number of population, density, and per capita income to [shed] some light on the volume of the market. He also presents the business impact of the [changes] in fertility, mortality, and style of those aged 40-64." (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

  4. Demographic and economic disparities among Arctic regions


    Schmidt, Jennifer Irene; Aanesen, Margrethe; Klokov, Konstantin; Kruschov, Sergei; Hausner, Vera Helene


    Accepted manuscript version. Published version at We use demographic and economic indicators to analyze spatial differences and temporal trends across 18 regions surrounding the Arctic Ocean. Multifactor and cluster analysis were used on 10 indicators reflecting income, employment and demography from 1995 to 2008. The main difference is between regions with high population densities, low natural growth rate, and low unemployment (Ru...

  5. Demographic Modeling Via 3-dimensional Markov Chains


    Viquez, Juan Jose; Campos, Alexander; Loria, Jorge; Mendoza, Luis Alfredo; Viquez, Jorge Aurelio


    This article presents a new model for demographic simulation which can be used to forecast and estimate the number of people in pension funds (contributors and retirees) as well as workers in a public institution. Furthermore, the model introduces opportunities to quantify the financial ows coming from future populations such as salaries, contributions, salary supplements, employer contribution to savings/pensions, among others. The implementation of this probabilistic model will be of great ...



    Melissa Jeanette Lötter; Sue Geldenhuys; Marius Potgieter


    It is difficult to examine different motivations and segment differentiations in niche markets such as adventure tourism seeing that it is not a well-defined segment in the discipline of tourism studies. In order to assist adventure tourism companies towards identifying and developing effective marketing strategies to attract or penetrate the adventure niche market, this study aims to contribute towards the current understanding of adventure tourists in Pretoria by compiling a demographic pro...

  7. Demographic and transportation parameters in RADTRAN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brogan, J.D.; Cashwell, J.W.; Neuhauser, K.S.


    Recent efforts at Sandia National Laboratories have focused not only on modification of the RADTRAN transportation risk analysis code but also on updating the default parameters for population, land use, and roadway characteristics used by the code. Changes to the code have been discussed earlier in this Conference. This paper summarizes the results of a review of transportation and demographic parameters, performed to complement recent model modifications

  8. Responsive survey design, demographic data collection, and models of demographic behavior. (United States)

    Axinn, William G; Link, Cynthia F; Groves, Robert M


    To address declining response rates and rising data-collection costs, survey methodologists have devised new techniques for using process data ("paradata") to address nonresponse by altering the survey design dynamically during data collection. We investigate the substantive consequences of responsive survey design-tools that use paradata to improve the representative qualities of surveys and control costs. By improving representation of reluctant respondents, responsive design can change our understanding of the topic being studied. Using the National Survey of Family Growth Cycle 6, we illustrate how responsive survey design can shape both demographic estimates and models of demographic behaviors based on survey data. By juxtaposing measures from regular and responsive data collection phases, we document how special efforts to interview reluctant respondents may affect demographic estimates. Results demonstrate the potential of responsive survey design to change the quality of demographic research based on survey data.

  9. Exile and demographic population growth in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stevanović Radoslav


    Full Text Available The data of the 2002 population census on refugee population are analyzed in this paper with a basic aim to determine the significance (contribution of refugee corpus in demographic development of the Republic of Serbia. By analyzing the data, it has been determined that the refugee corpus does not significantly differ from the domicile population in the basic, above all demographic and other qualitative characteristics. The differences which can be noticed with certain (primarily socio-economic characteristics, due to the proportionally small participation of refugee persons in relation to the total (domicile population, could not significantly influence the total demographic, socio-economic and other characteristics of the population of central Serbia and Vojvodina. The most significant contribution of refugee (classifying the refugee corpus in the country's total population is reflected in the mitigation of the depopulation trend, namely population growth, not only both micro-entities, but also lower administrative-territorial entities (districts depending on the enumerated refugee population in them. However, population projections indicate that by the middle of this century (2050 the positive effects of the basically larger number of inhabitants will be lost caused by the inflow of refugee population.

  10. Intelligent system to study demographic evolution (United States)

    Rodrigues, M. de Fatima; Ramos, Carlos; Henriques, Pedro R.


    With three centuries of existence, the study of population's behavior implies the manipulation of large amounts of incomplete and imprecise data with high dimensionality. By virtue of its multidisciplinary character, the work in demography involves at least historicists, statisticians and computer scientists/programmers. Moreover, successful demographic analysis requires qualified experts, who have succeeded in analysing data through many views and relate different sources of information, including their personal knowledge of the epoch or regions under study. In this paper, we present an intelligent system to study demographic evolution (ISSDE). This system has a module based on on-line analytical processing (OLAP), which permits conducting multiple analysis, combining many data dimensions. It has a deductive database system, which allows the execution of elaborated queries through the database. It has another module for date treatment (generalization and/or reduction); and, at last, a data mining module to discover nontrivial relations hidden within data. We discover the data treatment procedure with two phases: data generalization and data reduction. In data generalization, utilizing knowledge about concept hierarchies and relevance of data, aggregation of attribute values is performed. In the data reduction phase, rough set theory is applied to compute the minimal attribute set. We highlight the advantages of combining attribute value generalization with rough set theory, to find a subset of attributes that lets the mining process discover more useful patterns, by providing results from the application of the C5.0 algorithm in a demographic relational database.

  11. Current demographics suggest future energy supplies will be inadequate to slow human population growth. (United States)

    DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar; Hamilton, Marcus J


    Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.

  12. Current demographics suggest future energy supplies will be inadequate to slow human population growth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John P DeLong

    Full Text Available Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.

  13. Economic and demographic assumptions of the public pension insurance system functioning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đukić Gordana


    Full Text Available The demographic transition is characterized by a decline in birth rates and fertility on the one hand, and an intense increase in the number of old people on the other hand. The intensity of demographic ageing is characteristic of certain countries, being more expressed in developed countries. In such a situation, negative economic consequences arise in the context of unemployment, due to a decreased number of young population and lower participation in the labour market, as well as in the domains of savings, capital market, health protection, pension system and institutional development. These consequences can be mitigated by the application of appropriate economic transition and macroeconomic policy. Demographic tendencies have a great impact on changes in the values of the pension system parameters. The dependence rate indicating the relation between the number of employed people and the number of pensioners, and the average replacement rate representing the relation between the average wage and average pension, are directly dependent on demographic changes and they directly affect the sustainability of the public pension insurance system.

  14. Exploratory wine consumer behavior in a transitional market: The case of Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Schaefer


    Full Text Available This paper investigates exploratory behavior among wine consumers in Poland where the country's wine culture is in a state of rapid change. This study investigates the extent to which demographics, values, and wine preferences relate to exploratory behavior.Data obtained from 198 Polish wine consumers was used in the analysis. Exploratory behavior was measured using the VARSEEK scale adapted to wine. Other measures included the Schwartz Value Inventory, wine knowledge and involvement, and measures relevant for wine purchasing behavior. Demographic variables were also used to profile consumers.The findings show that Polish wine consumers’ level of exploratory behavior is not related to demographics, but is influenced by personal values. The consumers who were most likely to engage in exploratory behavior valued creativity, fun, and risk taking and were less concerned about behaving properly. They also had more global outlook as they were more likely to purchase wine in other countries and desired more wines from regions outside Poland.The findings are useful for wine marketers when developing strategies for wine consumers in transitional markets based on their unique needs and expectations.This is the first known research conducted in Poland focusing on wine consumers’ exploratory behavior and subsequent wine preferences. Keywords: Polish wine market, Consumer behavior, Exploratory behavior, Consumer segmentation

  15. Demographic Transformation in a Policy Vacuum: The Changing Face of U.S. Metropolitan Society and Challenges for Public Schools (United States)

    Mordechay, Kfir; Orfield, Gary


    Educators and policy makers must confront the race and class disparities in learning opportunities across American society. Nowhere are these disparities more acute than in the country's great metropolitan areas. As the demographic landscape continues to shift, metropolitan areas are fueling the transition to a majority-minority country. This…

  16. Readers' Trust, Socio-Demographic, and Acuity Influences in Citizen Journalism Credibility for Disrupted Online Newspapers (United States)

    Wester, Aaron Micah


    The purpose of this quantitative research study was to evaluate and determine if significant associations and linear correlations exist between reader socio-demographics, levels of trust and affinity in online citizen writer news story article content, brand loyalty, and acuity in newspaper organizations transitioning from print to online in a…

  17. Stock vs. Bond Yields, and Demographic Fluctuations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gozluklu, Arie; Morin, Annaïg

    This paper analyzes the strong comovement between real stock and nominal bond yields at generational (low) frequencies. Life-cycle patterns in savings behavior in an overlapping generations model with cash-in-advance constraints explain this persistent comovement between financial yields. We argue...... that the slow-evolving time-series covariation due to changing population age structure accounts for the equilibrium relation between stock and bond markets. As a result, by exploiting the demographic information into distant future, the forecasting performance of evaluation models improves. Finally, using...

  18. Environment, migration and the European demographic deficit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harper, Sarah


    Many countries in the more developed world, and some in the less developed, are facing new economic and social pressures associated with the ageing of their populations. Europe, in particular, is forecast to have a demographic deficit, which may be alleviated by in-migration to the region. However, several commentators have proposed that Europe will not be able to successfully compete with other regions, in particular Asia, in the coming years for the skills it will require. This letter explores these themes, arguing that climate change will increase the attractiveness of Europe as a destination of economic choice for future skilled workers, to the detriment of more environmentally challenged regions. (letter)

  19. Environment, migration and the European demographic deficit (United States)

    Harper, Sarah


    Many countries in the more developed world, and some in the less developed, are facing new economic and social pressures associated with the ageing of their populations. Europe, in particular, is forecast to have a demographic deficit, which may be alleviated by in-migration to the region. However, several commentators have proposed that Europe will not be able to successfully compete with other regions, in particular Asia, in the coming years for the skills it will require. This letter explores these themes, arguing that climate change will increase the attractiveness of Europe as a destination of economic choice for future skilled workers, to the detriment of more environmentally challenged regions.

  20. [Demographic development of Croatia, 1991-1994]. (United States)

    Lajic, I


    "The demographic development of Croatia in the period 1991-1994, marked by... Serbian aggression, the state of ¿half-war', and the war in Bosnia and Hercegovina, should be described as irregular--its components being determined by the above conditions. This proves especially true concerning forced migrations and their past and future influence on population change. The paper analyzes the insufficiently studied topic of war mortality, as well as various dimensions of the refugee population. It also emphasizes several structural characteristics of the population, particularly its ethnic structure, and the population dynamics in the temporarily occupied territories." (EXCERPT)

  1. Patterns of demographic change in the Americas. (United States)

    Ubelaker, D H


    Considerable scholarly debate has focused on the nature of demographic change in the Americas before and after 1492. Recent research on human skeletal samples and related archeological materials suggests that morbidity and mortality were increasing throughout much of the Western Hemisphere before 1492 in response to increased population density, increased sedentism, and changing subsistence. The evidence suggests that after 1492 population reduction was caused not by continental pandemics but by localized or regional epidemics augmented by social and economic disruption. The twentieth century has witnessed remarkable Native American population recovery, fueled both by improvements in health care and changing definitions of "being Indian."

  2. [Socio-demographic aspects of the rural household in Iran (author's transl)]. (United States)

    Mohseni, M


    Explores the dynamics of sociodemographic aspects of rural Iranian households and the effects on economic, demographic and social structures of rural areas where there has been rapid development. The rural population is characterized by early and high fertility and rapid population growth. The patrilinear kinship system contributes to the high birth rate, while judicial, economic and social factors limit women's rights to birth control. Rights and duties towards children, and their rights and duties towards their parents, have a strong influence on decisions concerning fertility. (author's modified)

  3. A Demographic Dividend for Sub-Saharan Africa: Source, Magnitude, and Realization


    Bloom, David E.; Humair, Salal; Rosenberg, Larry; Sevilla, J.P.; Trussell, James


    Managing rapid population growth and spurring economic growth are among the most pressing policy challenges for Sub-Saharan Africa. We discuss the links between them and investigate the potential of family planning programs to address these challenges. Specifically, we estimate the impact of family planning programs on income per capita that can arise via the demographic dividend (DD), a boost to per capita income that operates through a chain of causality related to declining fertility. We d...

  4. Effects of Demographic History on the Detection of Recombination Hotspots from Linkage Disequilibrium. (United States)

    Dapper, Amy L; Payseur, Bret A


    In some species, meiotic recombination is concentrated in small genomic regions. These "recombination hotspots" leave signatures in fine-scale patterns of linkage disequilibrium, raising the prospect that the genomic landscape of hotspots can be characterized from sequence variation. This approach has led to the inference that hotspots evolve rapidly in some species, but are conserved in others. Historic demographic events, such as population bottlenecks, are known to affect patterns of linkage disequilibrium across the genome, violating population genetic assumptions of this approach. Although such events are prevalent, demographic history is generally ignored when making inferences about the evolution of recombination hotspots. To determine the effect of demography on the detection of recombination hotspots, we use the coalescent to simulate haplotypes with a known recombination landscape. We measure the ability of popular linkage disequilibrium-based programs to detect hotspots across a range of demographic histories, including population bottlenecks, hidden population structure, population expansions, and population contractions. We find that demographic events have the potential to greatly reduce the power and increase the false positive rate of hotspot discovery. Neither the power nor the false positive rate of hotspot detection can be predicted without also knowing the demographic history of the sample. Our results suggest that ignoring demographic history likely overestimates the power to detect hotspots and therefore underestimates the degree of hotspot sharing between species. We suggest strategies for incorporating demographic history into population genetic inferences about recombination hotspots. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

  5. Thailand's Work and Health Transition. (United States)

    Kelly, Matthew; Strazdins, Lyndall; Dellora, Tarie; Khamman, Suwanee; Seubsman, Sam-Ang; Sleigh, Adrian C


    Thailand has experienced a rapid economic transition from agriculture to industry and services, and from informal to formal employment. It has much less state regulation and worker representation relative to developed nations, who underwent these transitions more slowly and sequentially, decades earlier. We examine the strengthening of Thai government policy and legislation affecting worker's health, responding to international norms, a new democratic constitution, fear of foreign importer embargos and several fatal workplace disasters. We identify key challenges remaining for Thai policy makers, including legislation enforcement and the measurement of impacts on worker's mental and physical health.

  6. Predicting primate responses to "Stochastic" demographic events. (United States)

    Strier, K B


    Comparative approaches in contemporary primate behavioral ecology have tended to emphasize the deterministic properties of stochastic ecological variables. Yet, primate responses to ecological fluctuations may be mediated by the interactions among demographic processes at the levels of individuals, groups, and populations. In this paper I examine long-term data collected from June 1982-July 1998 on one expanding group of muriquis (Brachyteles arachnoides) at the Estação Biologica de Caratinga, Minas Gerais, Brazil to explore the demographic and life history correlates of reproductive seasonality and skewed infant sex ratios. Variation in the size of annual birth cohorts (≥2 infants) was positively related to variation in the annual distribution of births (r (s)=0.96,n=10,p<0.01), indicating the importance of considering the effects that the number of reproductive females may have on interpretations of reproductive seasonality. The female-biased infants sex ratio documented from 59 births was attributed exclusively to multiparous mothers. Primiparous mothers produced comparable numbers of sons (n=6) and daughters (n=7), and were increasingly likely to produce daughters with each subsequent reproductive event. Seven of the 11 females that have produced≥3 infants to date exhibited biases in favor of daughters whereas only 1 was biased in favor of sons. Variation in female sensitivity to local resource competition at different stages of their life histories may account for the female-biased infant sex ration in this population.

  7. The AAVSO 2011 Demographic and Background Survey (United States)

    Price, A.


    In 2011, the AAVSO conducted a survey of 615 people who are or were recently active in the organization. The survey included questions about their demographic background and variable star interests. Data are descriptively analyzed and compared with prior surveys. Results show an organization of very highly educated, largely male amateur and professional astronomers distributed across 108 countries. Participants tend to be loyal, with the average time of involvement in the AAVSO reported as 14 years. Most major demographic factors have not changed much over time. However, the average age of new members is increasing. Also, a significant portion of the respondents report being strictly active in a non-observing capacity, reflecting the growing mission of the organization. Motivations of participants are more aligned with scientific contribution than with that reported by other citizen science projects. This may help explain why a third of all respondents are an author or co-author of a paper in an astronomical journal. Finally, there is some evidence that participation in the AAVSO has a greater impact on the respondents' view of their role in astronomy compared to that expected through increasing amateur astronomy experience alone.

  8. Subacute Sclerosing Panencephalitis: Clinical and Demographic Characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rafique, A.; Amjad, N.; Chand, P.; Ahmed, K.; Ibrahim, S.; Zaidi, S. S. Z.; Rana, M. S.


    Objective: To determine the clinical and demographic characteristics of children diagnosed with Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE). Study Design: Case series. Place and Duration of Study: The Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, from January 2000 to June 2012. Methodology: A retrospective analysis was done, regarding medical charts of 43 children under the age of 16 years with a discharge diagnosis of SSPE. Demographic and clinical characteristics were recorded. Results were expressed as percentages. Results: Most of the 43 patients were male (72%). The average age at presentation was 8.7 years with average duration of symptoms being 100.6 days. History of measles was present in 17 patients (39.5%). All children had seizures at presentation and 65% had cognitive impairment. Most patients required poly therapy for control of seizures. Sodium valproate was the most commonly used anti-epileptic agent; Isoprinosine was tried in 22 (51%) patients. CSF for antimeasles antibodies was positive in approximately 86% of the 40 (93%) children. EEG showed burst suppression pattern in 36 (83.7%) cases. Forty-two patients (97.6%) were discharged home in a vegetative state. Conclusion: SSPE is progressive neurodegenerative disorder. It can be prevented by timely immunization against measles. Measles antibody in the CSF is diagnostic for SSPE and is helpful in early diagnosis. Most patients experience a gradual but progressive decline in motor and cognitive functions. (author)

  9. Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk. (United States)

    Adams, Ben


    A salient characteristic of Ebola, and some other infectious diseases such as Tuberculosis, is intense transmission among small groups of cohabitants and relatively limited indiscriminate transmission in the wider population. Here we consider a mathematical model for an Ebola epidemic in a population structured into households of equal size. We show that household size, a fundamental demographic unit, is a critical factor that determines the vulnerability of a community to epidemics, and the effort required to control them. Our analysis is based on the household reproduction number, but we also consider the basic reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate and final epidemic size. We show that, when other epidemiological parameters are kept the same, all of these quantifications of epidemic growth and size are increased by larger households and more intense within-household transmission. We go on to model epidemic control by case detection and isolation followed by household quarantine. We show that, if household quarantine is ineffective, the critical probability with which cases must be detected to halt an epidemic increases significantly with each increment in household size and may be a very challenging target for communities composed of large households. Effective quarantine may, however, mitigate the detrimental impact of large household sizes. We conclude that communities composed of large households are fundamentally more vulnerable to epidemics of infectious diseases primarily transmitted by close contact, and any assessment of control strategies for these epidemics should take into account the demographic structure of the population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Material Stock Demographics: Cars in Great Britain. (United States)

    Cabrera Serrenho, André; Allwood, Julian M


    Recent literature on material flow analysis has been focused on quantitative characterization of past material flows. Fewer analyses exist on past and prospective quantification of stocks of materials in-use. Some of these analyses explore the composition of products' stocks, but a focus on the characterization of material stocks and its relation with service delivery is often neglected. We propose the use of the methods of human demography to characterize material stocks, defined herein as stock demographics, exploring the insights that this approach could provide for the sustainable management of materials. We exemplify an application of stock demographics by characterizing the composition and service delivery of iron, steel, and aluminum stocks of cars in Great Britain, 2002-2012. The results show that in this period the stock has become heavier, it is traveling less, and it is idle for more time. The visualization of material stocks' dynamics demonstrates the pace of product replacement as a function of its usefulness and enables the formulation of policy interventions and the exploration of future trends.

  11. Changing demographics: what to watch for. (United States)

    Morrison, P A


    Four broad demographic transformations: 1) the population's reconfiguration into smaller household units, especially those comprised of persons living alone; 2) changing employment patterns, notably the shift of married women into paid employment and the resulting proliferation of dual-earner families; 3) transformations in the population's age composition; and 4) the geography of growth in terms of regions that will gain or lose population--can be expected to have a profound impact on opportunities and challenges facing the business sector. The number of future households is projected to increase from 88.6 million in 1986 to 101.5 million by 1996. The sharpest gains will be among households headed by persons ranging in age from the late 30s to the early 50s. The fastest growth through the year 2000 is expected to occur in the Mountain states of the US. Business economists should be alert to these demographic analyses both to spot emerging growth markets and to identify long-term strategic issues, especially as the labor market changes. It will be increasingly important to differentiate time-sensitive from price-sensitive consumers.

  12. Demographic Characteristics of Strokes Types in Sanliurfa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yusuf Ižnanc


    Full Text Available Aim: Sanliurfa training and research hospital for diagnosis and treatment of patients with stroke admitted demographic features planned. We aimed to study demographic feature of stroke patient who admitted to Sanliurfa training and research hospital for diagnosis and treatment. Material and Method: 01/10/2011 and 01/9/2012, ischemic and hemorrhagic brain training and research hospital in Sanliurfa vascular disease diagnosis and treatment without any exclusion criteria, patient sequential 454 retrospectively.Results: 366%u2019si 88 were ischemic, hemorrhagic stroke. 54.6% by sex male,% 45.4 were women. Average age: 67.86 di.56.3% radiologically roaming the front circulation infarct brain infarct% found the rear 23.2. Hospital stay duration: 9.27 day.. Hemorrhagic stroke was longer this Sura in the group. Mortality rate 4.6% in all in packaging (21 patients, ischemic in boots in 1.9% (7 patients, hemorrhagic of boots were found at 15.9% (14 patients.Discussion: our study of Sanliurfa province stroke data in terms of the region together, although a portion of their valuable results. In the summer, the ischemic stroke incidence is higher.

  13. Composite likelihood estimation of demographic parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garrigan Daniel


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Most existing likelihood-based methods for fitting historical demographic models to DNA sequence polymorphism data to do not scale feasibly up to the level of whole-genome data sets. Computational economies can be achieved by incorporating two forms of pseudo-likelihood: composite and approximate likelihood methods. Composite likelihood enables scaling up to large data sets because it takes the product of marginal likelihoods as an estimator of the likelihood of the complete data set. This approach is especially useful when a large number of genomic regions constitutes the data set. Additionally, approximate likelihood methods can reduce the dimensionality of the data by summarizing the information in the original data by either a sufficient statistic, or a set of statistics. Both composite and approximate likelihood methods hold promise for analyzing large data sets or for use in situations where the underlying demographic model is complex and has many parameters. This paper considers a simple demographic model of allopatric divergence between two populations, in which one of the population is hypothesized to have experienced a founder event, or population bottleneck. A large resequencing data set from human populations is summarized by the joint frequency spectrum, which is a matrix of the genomic frequency spectrum of derived base frequencies in two populations. A Bayesian Metropolis-coupled Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMCMC method for parameter estimation is developed that uses both composite and likelihood methods and is applied to the three different pairwise combinations of the human population resequence data. The accuracy of the method is also tested on data sets sampled from a simulated population model with known parameters. Results The Bayesian MCMCMC method also estimates the ratio of effective population size for the X chromosome versus that of the autosomes. The method is shown to estimate, with reasonable

  14. Transit space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raahauge, Kirsten Marie


    This article deals with representations of one specific city, Århus, Denmark, especially its central district. The analysis is based on anthropological fieldwork conducted in Skåde Bakker and Fedet, two well-off neighborhoods. The overall purpose of the project is to study perceptions of space...... and the interaction of cultural, social, and spatial organizations, as seen from the point of view of people living in Skåde Bakker and Fedet. The focus is on the city dwellers’ representations of the central district of Århus with specific reference to the concept of transit space. When applied to various Århusian...

  15. Transition region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan, C.


    The Glossary is designed to be a technical dictionary that will provide solar workers of various specialties, students, other astronomers and theoreticians with concise information on the nature and the properties of phenomena of solar and solar-terrestrial physics. Each term, or group of related terms, is given a concise phenomenological and quantitative description, including the relationship to other phenomena and an interpretation in terms of physical processes. The references are intended to lead the non-specialist reader into the literature. This section deals with: transition region; di-electronic recombination; intersystem or intercombination lines; satellite lines; grazing-incidence optics; and crystal spectrometers. (B.R.H.)

  16. Evaluation of Socio-Demographic Characteristics of HIV/AIDS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Evaluation of Socio-Demographic Characteristics of HIV/AIDS Patients in a Tertiary Hospital. ... Journal of Pharmaceutical and Allied Sciences. Journal Home ... Keywords: Socio-demographics, HIV/AID, Retrospective, Teaching hospital ...

  17. Transitional issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    This discussion paper, the fifth in the series developed at the IPPSO Market Design Conference, addressed the issue of the need to prevent Ontario Hydro from taking unfair advantage of independent producers and other stakeholders through activities and investments in new power generating capacity in the transitional period leading up to deregulation. The need for controls is predicated on the assumption that the short-term actions and investments of Ontario Hydro could seriously compromise the position of independent generators, and that without such controls the level playing field essential to the operation of a competitive market, does not exist. Various actual and potential actions of Ontario Hydro were discussed, all of which point to the need for strict controls over Ontario Hydro exercising its dominant market power in an unfair way. It was recommended that as a minimum, the provincial government should no longer provide guarantees for Ontario Hydro capital projects, and that Ontario Hydro be instructed to defer any investment on new or returning generating capacity until the new market is in place. Limits could also be placed on Ontario Hydro's marketing efforts to enter into contracts during the transition period, and Ontario Hydro and municipal utilities should be required to keep separate accounts of their commercial preparation, and to settle such accounts separate from ratepayer revenue

  18. Profile: Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance System (United States)

    Kahn, Kathleen; Collinson, Mark A; Gómez-Olivé, F Xavier; Mokoena, Obed; Twine, Rhian; Mee, Paul; Afolabi, Sulaimon A; Clark, Benjamin D; Kabudula, Chodziwadziwa W; Khosa, Audrey; Khoza, Simon; Shabangu, Mildred G; Silaule, Bernard; Tibane, Jeffrey B; Wagner, Ryan G; Garenne, Michel L; Clark, Samuel J; Tollman, Stephen M


    The Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system (HDSS), located in rural northeast South Africa close to the Mozambique border, was established in 1992 to support district health systems development led by the post-apartheid ministry of health. The HDSS (90 000 people), based on an annual update of resident status and vital events, now supports multiple investigations into the causes and consequences of complex health, population and social transitions. Observational work includes cohorts focusing on different stages along the life course, evaluation of national policy at population, household and individual levels and examination of household responses to shocks and stresses and the resulting pathways influencing health and well-being. Trials target children and adolescents, including promoting psycho-social well-being, preventing HIV transmission and reducing metabolic disease risk. Efforts to enhance the research platform include using automated measurement techniques to estimate cause of death by verbal autopsy, full ‘reconciliation’ of in- and out-migrations, follow-up of migrants departing the study area, recording of extra-household social connections and linkage of individual HDSS records with those from sub-district clinics. Fostering effective collaborations (including INDEPTH multi-centre work in adult health and ageing and migration and urbanization), ensuring cross-site compatibility of common variables and optimizing public access to HDSS data are priorities. PMID:22933647

  19. Heliopause Electrostatic Rapid Transit System (HERTS) (Phase II) (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Our proposal builds upon our teams technical findings in Phase 1 - that an E-Sail propelled spacecraft can travel 100 AU in less than 10 years or to the Heliopause...

  20. Rapid Prototyping Laboratory (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The ARDEC Rapid Prototyping (RP) Laboratory was established in December 1992 to provide low cost RP capabilities to the ARDEC engineering community. The Stratasys,...

  1. Land use and demographic grids in Cosyma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, C.A.; Hasemann, I.


    The spatial distribution of the population, agricultural production, economic activity, and the position of land and sea, are important elements of accident consequence codes. These data are necessary in evaluating the health effects within the population arising from the external dose, inhalation and ingestion pathways. These distributions are also essential in calculating the economic impact of implementing countermeasures, such as relocation and food bans. This paper includes a discussion of the agricultural production and population distribution information available for EC countries, their resolution, availability and sources. The gridded data included in the COSYMA system are described. Particular aspects, such as the difficulties involved with using economic land use information, are also explained. Future developments, and their effect on the requirements for land use and demographic grids, are outlined

  2. 3D face analysis for demographic biometrics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tokola, Ryan A [ORNL; Mikkilineni, Aravind K [ORNL; Boehnen, Chris Bensing [ORNL


    Despite being increasingly easy to acquire, 3D data is rarely used for face-based biometrics applications beyond identification. Recent work in image-based demographic biometrics has enjoyed much success, but these approaches suffer from the well-known limitations of 2D representations, particularly variations in illumination, texture, and pose, as well as a fundamental inability to describe 3D shape. This paper shows that simple 3D shape features in a face-based coordinate system are capable of representing many biometric attributes without problem-specific models or specialized domain knowledge. The same feature vector achieves impressive results for problems as diverse as age estimation, gender classification, and race classification.

  3. Microstructure of rapidly solidified materials (United States)

    Jones, H.


    The basic features of rapidly solidified microstructures are described and differences arising from alternative processing strategies are discussed. The possibility of achieving substantial undercooling prior to solidification in processes such as quench atomization and chill block melt spinning can give rise to striking microstructural transitions even when external heat extraction is nominally Newtonian. The increased opportunity in laser and electron beam surface melting for epitaxial growth on the parent solid at an accelerating rate, however, does not exclude the formation of nonequilibrium phases since the required undercooling can be locally attained at the solidification front which is itself advancing at a sufficiently high velocity. The effects of fluid flow indicated particularly in melt spinning and surface melting are additional to the transformational and heat flow considerations that form the present basis for interpretation of such microstructural effects.

  4. Extraparenchymal neurocysticercosis: Demographic, clinicoradiological, and inflammatory features.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Marcin Sierra


    Full Text Available Extraparenchymal neurocysticercosis (ExPNCC, an infection caused by Taenia solium cysticerci that mainly occurs in the ventricular compartment (Ve or the basal subarachnoid space (SAb, is more severe but less frequent and much less studied than parenchymal neurocysticercosis (ParNCC. Demographic, clinical, radiological, and lumbar cerebrospinal fluid features of patients affected by ExPNCC are herein described and compared with those of ParNCC patients.429 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of neurocysticercosis, attending the Instituto Nacional de Neurología y Neurocirugía, a tertiary reference center in Mexico City, from 2000 through 2014, were included. Demographic information, signs and symptoms, radiological patterns, and lumbar cerebrospinal fluid (CSF laboratory values were retrieved from medical records for all patients. Data were statistically analyzed to assess potential differences depending on cyst location and to determine the effects of age and sex on the disease presentation. In total, 238 ExPNCC and 191 ParNCC patients were included. With respect to parenchymal cysts, extraparenchymal parasites were diagnosed at an older age (P = 0.002, chiefly caused intracranial hypertension (P < 0.0001, were more frequently multiple and vesicular (P < 0.0001, and CSF from these patients showed higher protein concentration and cell count (P < 0.0001. SAb patients were diagnosed at an older age than Ve patients, and showed more frequently seizures, vesicular cysticerci, and higher CSF cellularity. Gender and age modulated some traits of the disease.This study evidenced clear clinical, radiological, and inflammatory differences between ExPNCC and ParNCC, and between SAb and Ve patients, and demonstrated that parasite location determines different pathological entities.

  5. Energy transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)



    The yearly environmental conference will hold on September 2013 to evaluate the negotiations led at the national and local levels for december 2012. The government will have then to decide of an energy programming bill which will be submitted to the Parliament at the beginning of the year 2014. 30 main propositions have emerged of the decentralised debates. One of them is the ecological taxation which raise the question of the gas oil and petrol taxation. The current environmental taxes are for almost three quarters of them taxes on energy consumptions and mainly on fossil energies. The Economic, Social and Environmental Council, gives his opinion on the way to find resources to ensure the ecological and energy transition while reducing the public deficit of the State. (O.M.)

  6. The socio-demographic aspects of building social infrastructure in the city of Moscow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strashnova Yuliya gennad’evna


    Full Text Available Subject: the influence of the socio-demographic factor on the development of the network of facilities of the social infrastructure of the city (on the example of Moscow is explored. The interrelation between socio-demographic development and the formation of the consumer demand for services and various types of facilities is revealed. The main socio-demographic concepts and measures determining a need to develop and site the facilities throughout the city are considered. Thus, the social, age and family structure of the resident population determine the typology and functional structure of facilities. The “daytime” population, its structure and concentration areas determine the volume and the new construction sites of residential buildings. The “temporary” population (including tourists, transit passengers, business travelers and other population categories, staying in the city for more than 24 hours specifies the need for the construction of hotels, hostels and other collective accommodation facilities. Economically active population creates demand for jobs, including those created on the basis of social infrastructure. Objectives: to explain the need for taking into account the modern and perspective trends in population development during the preparation of the territorial and urban planning documents; to consider the particularities of the socio-demographic characteristics included when forecasting the need to develop the social facilities, creating workplaces, taking into account the transition to the economy of services and information technologies, in designing a citywide system, including transport hubs. Materials and methods: the research was conducted on the basis of official statistics (Rosstat, Mosgorstat, of line departments and offices of the city of Moscow. Statistical, analytical, sociological methods of research, expert assessments, analogies, field survey, mathematical modeling are used. Results: modern and perspective

  7. 'Fair innings' in the face of ageing and demographic change. (United States)

    Hazra, Nisha C; Gulliford, Martin C; Rudisill, Caroline


    There are now 125 million people aged 80 years and over worldwide, projected by the United Nations to grow threefold by 2050. While increases in life expectancy and rapid increases in the older-age population are considered positive developments, the consequential future health care burden represents a leading concern for health services. We revisit Williams' 'fair innings' argument from 1997, in light of technological and demographic changes, and challenge the notion that greater longevity may impose an unfair burden on younger generations. We discuss perspectives on the equity-efficiency trade-off in terms of their implications for the growing over-80 population, as well as society in general. This includes questioning the comparison of treatment cost-effectiveness in younger vs. older populations when using quality-adjusted life years and the transience of life expectancies over generations. While recognising that there will never be a clear consensus regarding societal value judgements, we present empirical evidence on the very elderly that lends support to a stronger anti-ageist stance given current increases in longevity.

  8. Rapid Tooling via Stereolithography


    Montgomery, Eva


    Approximately three years ago, composite stereolithography (SL) resins were introduced to the marketplace, offering performance features beyond what traditional SL resins could offer. In particular, the high heat deflection temperatures and high stiffness of these highly filled resins have opened the door to several new rapid prototyping (RP) applications, including wind tunnel test modelling and, more recently, rapid tooling.

  9. Experts Networks and the European Commission on Demographic Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seabrooke, Leonard; Tsingou, Eleni; Willers, Johann Ole

    experts on demographic change. Our findings suggest that on demographic change issues at the EU level, DG EMPL has taken the lead, while DG ECFIN is the secondary actor. Still, internal European Commission dynamics mean that the lead actor on demographic issues has less autonomy in articulating a funded......This paper examines who populates the expert and policy network around demographic change issues in Europe. We examine how competing policy departments in the European Commission Directorates-General (DGs) deal with the issue of Europe’s changing demography, as well as discuss the role of external...... and clear policy position on how to address them. As a consequence, there is little institutional memory and hardly a depository of activity on demographic change. While outside expertise comes primarily from demographers, and other scholars concerned with demographic change, they are primarily an academic...

  10. [Doctoral thesis: Demographic growth and economic and social development in Mali]. (United States)

    Dabo, K


    A doctoral thesis is described analyzing the relationships between demographic growth and economic and social development in Mali. The hypothesis is stated that demographic growth impedes economic development and any improvement in populations¿ standards of living. The hypothesis was verified using data for the period from 1960 to the present. Over that period, Mali conducted two general population censuses in 1976 and 1987, as well as several demographic research studies. The thesis is comprised of 4 parts, of which the first generally describes Mali. The second part analyzes the relationship between population growth and economic and social development in Mali. Study results are presented, followed by an analysis of the effects of economic and social development upon population growth in Mali through factors such as urbanization, education level, literacy, income, employment, occupation, gross domestic or gross national product by inhabitant, infant mortality rate, life expectancy at birth, contraceptive practice, fertility opinions and desires, women¿s status, and migration in Mali. Analysis indicates that Mali has not completely begun its demographic transition, but that traditional pronatalist behaviors are changing. Population policies and programs are explored in the third part of the thesis, followed by the fourth part which focuses upon methodological questions.

  11. The regional differentiation of the demographic movements in the Republic of Macedonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madjevikj Mirjanka


    Full Text Available The Republic of Macedonia covers an area of 25,713 km² and according to data from the census conducted in 2002, it has a population of 2,022,547 inhabitants. In the past, the Republic of Macedonia was characterized by some significant demographic changes, including a decline in the average annual rate of population increase. The enhanced immigration movements and sudden decline in the rates of natural population increase have led to changes in distribution of the population and to a spatial differentiation in the population. The long period of transition in the country has been reflected in the spatial development of the country and its demographic processes and to relocation of the population. The different natural-geographical characteristics, unequal regional development potentials, unequal economic development, and demographic characteristics have led to changes in the demographic situation of certain regions. The regions that continually lose part of its population clearly differ from these regions that are characterized by an increased population which is leading to a greater concentration of people in certain location. Further decades with a declining birth rate, followed by a change in the values of population increase, together with migration movements, particularly from the rural and less developed economic regions, has resulted in a decline in the population. The different zones of depopulation and concentration in a simple way express the complex relationships in the population composition.

  12. Rapid improvement teams. (United States)

    Alemi, F; Moore, S; Headrick, L; Neuhauser, D; Hekelman, F; Kizys, N


    Suggestions, most of which are supported by empirical studies, are provided on how total quality management (TQM) teams can be used to bring about faster organizationwide improvements. Ideas are offered on how to identify the right problem, have rapid meetings, plan rapidly, collect data rapidly, and make rapid whole-system changes. Suggestions for identifying the right problem include (1) postpone benchmarking when problems are obvious, (2) define the problem in terms of customer experience so as not to blame employees nor embed a solution in the problem statement, (3) communicate with the rest of the organization from the start, (4) state the problem from different perspectives, and (5) break large problems into smaller units. Suggestions for having rapid meetings include (1) choose a nonparticipating facilitator to expedite meetings, (2) meet with each team member before the team meeting, (3) postpone evaluation of ideas, and (4) rethink conclusions of a meeting before acting on them. Suggestions for rapid planning include reducing time spent on flowcharting by focusing on the future, not the present. Suggestions for rapid data collection include (1) sample patients for surveys, (2) rely on numerical estimates by process owners, and (3) plan for rapid data collection. Suggestions for rapid organizationwide implementation include (1) change membership on cross-functional teams, (2) get outside perspectives, (3) use unfolding storyboards, and (4) go beyond self-interest to motivate lasting change in the organization. Additional empirical investigations of time saved as a consequence of the strategies provided are needed. If organizations solve their problems rapidly, fewer unresolved problems may remain.

  13. Impact of demographic policy on population growth. (United States)

    Podyashchikh, P


    Various bourgeois theories, including the reactionary Malthusianism and its variants, challenge the Marxist-Leninist revolutionary theory on the growth of population. Bourgeois science maintains that unchanging biological laws of proliferation form the foundation of social life. Malthus, in his "An Essay on the Principle of Population," contends that population increases in a geometric rate, while means of subsistence tend to increase only in an arithmetic rate: neither the way of production nor social conditions but this law of nature in control of proliferation had been the cause of overpopulation, which again leads to misery, hunger, and unemployment. From this follows the possible conclusion that the working classes should be concerned not about how to change the social order but how to reduce the number of childbirths. Progressive science views the laws of social life in a totally different way. Marxism-Leninism teaches that population size, despite the markedly important role played by it in historical progress, fails to represent that main force of social progress which determines the mode of production and of the distribution of material goods, but just the reverse: the mode of production determines the growth of population, the changes in its density and composition. Marxism-Leninism teaches that each historical stage of production (slavery, feudalism, capitalism) has its own special, historically valid demographic law. Bourgeois science maintains that humankind faces an absolute overpopulation caused by the means of production lagging behind the growth of population. Actually this is only a relative overpopulation due to the fact that capitalistic production is subjected to the interests of increasing capitalistic profit and not to those of meeting the demands of population. In socialist countries, production is incessantly developing and expanding, and employment of the entire productive population is ensured. Consequently, the problem of relative

  14. Rapid response systems. (United States)

    Lyons, Patrick G; Edelson, Dana P; Churpek, Matthew M


    Rapid response systems are commonly employed by hospitals to identify and respond to deteriorating patients outside of the intensive care unit. Controversy exists about the benefits of rapid response systems. We aimed to review the current state of the rapid response literature, including evolving aspects of afferent (risk detection) and efferent (intervention) arms, outcome measurement, process improvement, and implementation. Articles written in English and published in PubMed. Rapid response systems are heterogeneous, with important differences among afferent and efferent arms. Clinically meaningful outcomes may include unexpected mortality, in-hospital cardiac arrest, length of stay, cost, and processes of care at end of life. Both positive and negative interventional studies have been published, although the two largest randomized trials involving rapid response systems - the Medical Early Response and Intervention Trial (MERIT) and the Effect of a Pediatric Early Warning System on All-Cause Mortality in Hospitalized Pediatric Patients (EPOCH) trial - did not find a mortality benefit with these systems, albeit with important limitations. Advances in monitoring technologies, risk assessment strategies, and behavioral ergonomics may offer opportunities for improvement. Rapid responses may improve some meaningful outcomes, although these findings remain controversial. These systems may also improve care for patients at the end of life. Rapid response systems are expected to continue evolving with novel developments in monitoring technologies, risk prediction informatics, and work in human factors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Demographic controls of future global fire risk (United States)

    Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.


    Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

  16. The shifting demographic landscape of pandemic influenza.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shweta Bansal


    Full Text Available As Pandemic (H1N1 2009 influenza spreads around the globe, it strikes school-age children more often than adults. Although there is some evidence of pre-existing immunity among older adults, this alone may not explain the significant gap in age-specific infection rates.Based on a retrospective analysis of pandemic strains of influenza from the last century, we show that school-age children typically experience the highest attack rates in primarily naive populations, with the burden shifting to adults during the subsequent season. Using a parsimonious network-based mathematical model which incorporates the changing distribution of contacts in the susceptible population, we demonstrate that new pandemic strains of influenza are expected to shift the epidemiological landscape in exactly this way.Our analysis provides a simple demographic explanation for the age bias observed for H1N1/09 attack rates, and suggests that this bias may shift in coming months. These results have significant implications for the allocation of public health resources for H1N1/09 and future influenza pandemics.

  17. Population growth, demographic change, and cultural landscapes. (United States)

    Woodgate, G; Sage, C


    The inclusion of both ecological and socioeconomic components within landscapes makes possible the perception of the hierarchical character of landscape organization. A research approach is needed to conceptualize cultural landscapes as the product of interaction between society and nature. Richard Norgaard's 1984 paper on coevolutionary agricultural development attempts to meet this challenge. Coevolution is the interactive synthesis of natural and social mechanisms of change that characterize the relationship between social systems and ecosystems. The relationship between population, consumption, and environmental changes is complex. Currently industrialized countries present the biggest threat to global environmental resources. The issue of carrying capacity is the corollary of population and the environment. It is primarily the technological factor rather than population that needs to be controlled. The relationship between rich and poor countries is determined by superior economic power. An analysis of landscape change is made, tracing the coevolution of society and environment from the end of the feudal era and making comparisons with continental Europe. Over the years since 1945 the need to realize potential economies of scale has resulted in a wholesale loss of woodlands, hedgerows, and small ponds in the UK. In a global context the likely impacts of population growth and demographic change on landscapes will be influenced by such socioeconomic factors as technology and affluence; policies that ignore cause and effect; and the traditional tendency to treat the environment as a waste repository and a supply depot.

  18. Educational differentials in cohort fertility during the fertility transition in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sam Hyun Yoo


    Full Text Available Background: While there has been a considerable amount of research on the association between women's education and fertility rates, few of these studies have examined the pattern of fertility differentials over the course of the fertility transition. As a country that has experienced a rapid decline in fertility and marked improvements in women's educational attainment over the last several decades, South Korea represents an ideal case for studying this dynamic association. Objective: The aim of the article is to explain the pattern of fertility differentials by level of education and the contribution of the changes in women's educational attainment to the fertility decline during the fertility transition in South Korea. Methods: Drawing upon data from the Korean censuses conducted between 1970 and 2010, I analyze completed cohort fertility for women born between 1926 and 1970 using demographic-decomposition techniques and cohort parity progression ratios by level of education. Results: The differences in fertility by educational attainment have gradually declined over the transition, with fertility almost converging at a low level among recent birth cohorts. Fertility in South Korea had been declining in all of the social groups until the sub-replacement fertility was reached. The change in women's educational attainment then became an important factor in the further decline in fertility. The trend toward fewer children quickly spread from the most educated to the least educated women throughout the fertility transition. Conclusions: The transformation of fertility behaviors across social strata has been a key element in the Korean fertility transition. Although educational expansion, particularly the introduction of mass education, has contributed to falling fertility in South Korea, the role of education in fertility decline is more pronounced in the diffusion of innovative ideas and behaviors, which reduced fertility differentials across

  19. Disease introduction is associated with a phase transition in bighorn sheep demographics (United States)

    Manlove, Kezia; Cassirer, E. Frances; Cross, Paul C.; Plowright, Raina K.; Hudson, Peter J.


    Ecological theory suggests that pathogens are capable of regulating or limiting host population dynamics, and this relationship has been empirically established in several settings. However, although studies of childhood diseases were integral to the development of disease ecology, few studies show population limitation by a disease affecting juveniles. Here, we present empirical evidence that disease in lambs constrains population growth in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) based on 45 years of population-level and 18 years of individual-level monitoring across 12 populations. While populations generally increased (λ = 1.11) prior to disease introduction, most of these same populations experienced an abrupt change in trajectory at the time of disease invasion, usually followed by stagnant-to-declining growth rates (λ = 0.98) over the next 20 years. Disease-induced juvenile mortality imposed strong constraints on population growth that were not observed prior to disease introduction, even as adult survival returned to pre-invasion levels. Simulations suggested that models including persistent disease-induced mortality in juveniles qualitatively matched observed population trajectories, whereas models that only incorporated all-age disease events did not. We use these results to argue that pathogen persistence may pose a lasting, but under-recognized, threat to host populations, particularly in cases where clinical disease manifests primarily in juveniles.

  20. The Trade-off between Fertility and Education: Evidence from before the Demographic Transition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Becker, Sascha; Cinnirella, Francesco; Woessmann, Ludger


    -based dataset of 334 Prussian counties in 1849. Furthermore, we find that causation between fertility and education runs both ways, based on separate instrumental-variable models that instrument fertility by sex ratios and education by landownership inequality and distance to Wittenberg. Education in 1849 also...

  1. Implications of economic transition and demographics for financing pensions in the former socialist economies. (United States)

    Jenkins, G P


    "This paper is concerned primarily with the financing of pensions, or the old-age income maintenance portion of the social security system. While the discussion here will be limited to Hungary and Poland, most of the post-socialist countries of East and Central Europe and of the former Soviet Union face similar problems." The author suggests "a set of alternative pension financing strategies....A novel approach is to replace the payroll tax with part of a value-added tax, which may be a good short run solution to current financial crises of the pension systems in these countries." excerpt

  2. Mapping sleeping sickness in Western Africa in a context of demographic transition and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecchi G.


    Full Text Available Human population growth, climate change and economic development are causing major environmental modifications in Western Africa, which will have important repercussions on the epidemiology of sleeping sickness. A new initiative, the Atlas of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, aims at assembling and geo-referencing all epidemiological data derived from both active screening activities and passive surveillance. A geographic database enables to generate up-to-date disease maps at a range of scales and of unprecedented spatial accuracy. We present preliminary results for seven West African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Mali and Togo and briefly discuss the relevance of the Atlas for future monitoring, control and research activities.

  3. Mixing times towards demographic equilibrium in insect populations with temperature variable age structures. (United States)

    Damos, Petros


    In this study, we use entropy related mixing rate modules to measure the effects of temperature on insect population stability and demographic breakdown. The uncertainty in the age of the mother of a randomly chosen newborn, and how it is moved after a finite act of time steps, is modeled using a stochastic transformation of the Leslie matrix. Age classes are represented as a cycle graph and its transitions towards the stable age distribution are brought forth as an exact Markov chain. The dynamics of divergence, from a non equilibrium state towards equilibrium, are evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy. Moreover, Kullback-Leibler distance is applied as information-theoretic measure to estimate exact mixing times of age transitions probabilities towards equilibrium. Using empirically data, we show that on the initial conditions and simulated projection's trough time, that population entropy can effectively be applied to detect demographic variability towards equilibrium under different temperature conditions. Changes in entropy are correlated with the fluctuations of the insect population decay rates (i.e. demographic stability towards equilibrium). Moreover, shorter mixing times are directly linked to lower entropy rates and vice versa. This may be linked to the properties of the insect model system, which in contrast to warm blooded animals has the ability to greatly change its metabolic and demographic rates. Moreover, population entropy and the related distance measures that are applied, provide a means to measure these rates. The current results and model projections provide clear biological evidence why dynamic population entropy may be useful to measure population stability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Peer grouping and performance measurement to improve rural and urban transit in Texas. (United States)


    Rural and small urban transit systems in Texas will become even more important with predicted changes in : population trends. Rural demographic trends indicate growth in the number of persons age 65 and over : coupled with a decrease in population de...

  5. Modelling multimodal transit networks : integration of bus networks with walking and cycling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brand, Judith; Hoogendoorn, S.P.; van Oort, N.; Schalkwijk, Bart


    Demand for (public) transportation is subject to dynamics affected by technological, spatial, societal and demographic aspects. The political environment, together with financial and spatial constraints limit the possibilities to address transit issues arising from growing demand through the

  6. Housing Trajectories for Youth Transitioning from Foster Care: Gender Differences from 2010-2014. (United States)

    Hasson, Robert G Iii; Reynolds, Andrew D; Crea, Ihomas M

    This study focuses on longitudinal housing trends for males and females among transitional youth who were participants of a transitional living program (2010 to 2014). Results indicate that young women were more likely to transition to secure independent housing than young men. Demographic characteristics, education, and employment predicted time to secure independent housing. Additionally, results indicate that more highly educated young women transitioned to independence at a faster rate than young men with lower education status.

  7. Demographic features of subjects with congenital glaucoma (United States)

    Tamçelik, Nevbahar; Atalay, Eray; Bolukbasi, Selim; Çapar, Olgu; Ozkok, Ahmet


    Context: Congenital glaucoma is a potentially blinding ocular disease of the childhood. Identification of the possible associated risk factors and may be helpful for prevention or early detection of this public health problem. Aims: To demonstrate the demographic features of congenital glaucoma subjects. Setting and Design: The charts of congenital glaucoma patients referred to Tamcelik Glaucoma Center were retrospectively reviewed through the dates of 2000 and 2013. Materials and Methods: Analyzed data included diagnosis, age at first presentation, symptoms at first presentation, laterality of the disease, sex, presence of consanguinity, family history of congenital glaucoma, maturity of the fetus at delivery, and maternal age at conception. Statistical Analysis Used: Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 19.0 by IBM (SPSS Inc, Chicago, Illinois, USA) was used to compare the mean of continuous variables with Student's t-test and analysis of variance (ANOVA) and χ2 test was used to test differences in proportions of categorical variables. Results: The data of 600 eyes of 311 patients were analyzed. The distribution of primary and secondary congenital glaucoma among the patients were 63.3% (n = 197) and 36.7% (n = 114), respectively. Of the 311 patients, 57.2% (n = 178) were male and 42.8% (n = 133) were female. The overall frequency of bilateral disease was 92.3% (n = 287). Overall rate of consanguinity and positive family history was 45.3% (n = 141) and 21.2% (n = 66), respectively. Conclusions: Bilateral disease in this study was more common than previously reported studies. Positive family history was more frequent in primary congenital glaucoma although not statistically significant. PMID:24881602

  8. Demographics of the European apicultural industry. (United States)

    Chauzat, Marie-Pierre; Cauquil, Laura; Roy, Lise; Franco, Stéphanie; Hendrikx, Pascal; Ribière-Chabert, Magali


    Over the last few years, many European and North American countries have reported a high rate of disorders (mortality, dwindling and disappearance) affecting honeybee colonies (Apis mellifera). Although beekeeping has become an increasingly professional activity in recent years, the beekeeping industry remains poorly documented in Europe. The European Union Reference Laboratory for Honeybee Health sent a detailed questionnaire to each Member State, in addition to Kosovo and Norway, to determine the demographics and state of their beekeeping industries. Based on data supplied by the National Reference Laboratory for honeybee diseases in each European country, a European database was created to describe the beekeeping industry including the number and types of beekeepers, operation size, industry production, and health (notifiable diseases, mortalities). The total number of beekeepers in Europe was estimated at 620,000. European honey production was evaluated at around 220,000 tons in 2010. The price of honey varied from 1.5 to 40 €/kg depending on the country and on the distribution network. The estimated colony winter mortality varied from 7 to 28% depending on the country and the origin of the data (institutional survey or beekeeping associations). This survey documents the high heterogeneity of the apicultural industry within the European Union. The high proportion of non-professional beekeepers and the small mean number of colonies per beekeeper were the only common characteristics at European level. The tremendous variation in European apicultural industries has implication for any comprehensive epidemiological or economic analysis of the industry. This variability needs to be taken into account for such analysis as well as for future policy development. The industry would be served if beekeeping registration was uniformly implemented across member states. Better information on the package bee and queen production would help in understanding the ability of

  9. Causes of death in the Taabo health and demographic surveillance system, Côte d'Ivoire, from 2009 to 2011. (United States)

    Koné, Siaka; Fürst, Thomas; Jaeger, Fabienne N; Esso, Emmanuel L J C; Baïkoro, Nahoua; Kouadio, Kouamé A; Adiossan, Lukas G; Zouzou, Fabien; Boti, Louis I; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Dao, Daouda; N'Goran, Eliézer K


    Current vital statistics from governmental institutions in Côte d'Ivoire are incomplete. This problem is particularly notable for remote rural areas that have limited access to the health system. To record all deaths from 2009 to 2011 and to identify the leading causes of death in the Taabo health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) in south-central Côte d'Ivoire. Deaths recorded in the first 3 years of operation of the Taabo HDSS were investigated by verbal autopsy (VA), using the InterVA-4 model. InterVA-4 is based on the World Health Organization 2012 VA tool in terms of input indicators and categories of causes of death. Overall, 948 deaths were recorded, of which 236 (24.9%) had incomplete VA data. Among the 712 deaths analyzed, communicable diseases represented the leading causes (58.9%), with most deaths attributed to malaria (n=129), acute respiratory tract infections (n=110), HIV/AIDS (n=80), and pulmonary tuberculosis (n=46). Non-communicable diseases accounted for 18.9% of the deaths and included mainly acute abdomen (n=38), unspecified cardiac diseases (n=15), and digestive neoplasms (n=13). Maternal and neonatal conditions accounted for 8.3% of deaths, primarily pneumonia (n=19) and birth asphyxia (n=16) in newborns. Among the 3.8% of deaths linked to trauma and injury, the main causes were assault (n=6), accidental drowning (n=4), contact with venomous plants/animals (n=4), and traffic-related accidents (n=4). No clear causes were determined in 10.0% of the analyzed deaths. Communicable diseases remain the predominant cause of death in rural Côte d'Ivoire. Based on these findings, measures are now being implemented in the Taabo HDSS. It will be interesting to monitor patterns of mortality and causes of death in the face of rapid demographic and epidemiological transitions in this part of West Africa.

  10. Multiregional demographic projections in practice: a metropolitan example. (United States)

    Congdon, P


    "This paper examines options for local and regional projections which reflect both demographic interdependencies with jobs and housing at this area scale, and the inapplicability of traditional demographic projection methods to population or areal subdivisions. This context for local demographic projections requires constraints (for example, to job and housing forecasts or to higher area totals), the use of proxy or explanatory indicators to predict demographic rates or totals, and parameterization of demographic schedules, to facilitate comparison across numerous localities and to set future assumptions about demographic components. The traditional framework of self-contained projection by deterministic cohort survival is therefore widened to include regio-scientific and stochastic modelling concepts. The framework for empirical analysis is London [England] and its boroughs." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND GER) excerpt

  11. Demographic Composition of the Online Buyers in Turkey


    Sinan NARDALI


    Demographic variables may have an impact on Internet usage patterns. Online buyers’ characteristics keeps changing time along with the shifting dynamics of Turkish consumers’ demographic profile and day by day online shopping becomes a safe and popular option in Turkey. Current study investigates demographic composition of the online buyers that influence consumer attitudes towards online shopping behavior in Izmir, the third largest city in Turkey. This study examines attitudes toward online...

  12. Simulation of transition crossing in LAMPF II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warren, J.L.; Thiessen, H.A.


    LAMPF II is the proposed rapid-cycling synchrotron that will take 0.8-GeV protons from the LAMPF linear accelerator and raise them to 32 GeV. Early design models were based on a 60-Hz cycle with 10 13 protons to be accelerated per cycle. Any reasonable magnetic lattice results in the proton beam going through a phase transition. A general accelerator-simulation code that includes the effect of longitudinal space charge, ARCHSIM, has been used to study the transition in a typical achromatic lattice. The beam remains stable through the transition

  13. Localization transition in SU(3) gauge theory (United States)

    Kovács, Tamás G.; Vig, Réka Á.


    We study the Anderson-like localization transition in the spectrum of the Dirac operator of quenched QCD. Above the deconfining transition we determine the temperature dependence of the mobility edge separating localized and delocalized eigenmodes in the spectrum. We show that the temperature where the mobility edge vanishes and localized modes disappear from the spectrum coincides with the critical temperature of the deconfining transition. We also identify topological charge related close to zero modes in the Dirac spectrum and show that they account for only a small fraction of localized modes, a fraction that is rapidly falling as the temperature increases.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Fisher


    Full Text Available Six focus groups were conducted with each having ten people who attend different Islamic Centers in Ohio. The objective of the focus groups was to understand Halal meat purchase patterns and consumption patterns of the Moslem population with special attention to goat. The Ohio State University Extension personnel are utilizing these results to work with meat goat producers to understand and meet the requirements of the Halal meat market.  Participants discussed the Zabiha approach to slaughtering animals as the most merciful by causing the least pain. Many participants noted they had no way of knowing where the animal  came from and this held tremendous concerns relative to the feeding of animal by-products, use of hormones, and adulteration with pork. These trust concerns led to decisions about where to purchase their meat with 72% purchasing from a Moslem owned retail store. Only 13% purchased from a large grocery and 8% direct from a farmer.   Participants indicated their consumption patterns according to weekly, seasonal, and holiday use in addition to variations according to their personal geographic origin. The average meat purchase was 23 pounds with an average occurrence of 12.5 times per annum.  Purchasing trends indicated that 78% prefer lean over marbled cuts. Nearly 86% prefer fresh over frozen goat meat and nearly a third responded that they would pay more for fresh. Intact males were preferred by 42% of the respondents. Preferences for meat goat cuts were: Leg (71%, Chops (42%, Shoulder (24%, Breast (7%. Nearly a third indicated they also want the kidneys, heart, or head. Demographic shifts in the United States indicate that there are almost 53 million people who have a preference for goat meat. There are 2.4 million goats in the US according to the 2007 Agricultural Statistics. Based on consumption trends of this study, goat demand exceeds inventory by 160%. Meat goat consumer trends are changing regarding

  15. Genetic demographic networks: Mathematical model and applications. (United States)

    Kimmel, Marek; Wojdyła, Tomasz


    Recent improvement in the quality of genetic data obtained from extinct human populations and their ancestors encourages searching for answers to basic questions regarding human population history. The most common and successful are model-based approaches, in which genetic data are compared to the data obtained from the assumed demography model. Using such approach, it is possible to either validate or adjust assumed demography. Model fit to data can be obtained based on reverse-time coalescent simulations or forward-time simulations. In this paper we introduce a computational method based on mathematical equation that allows obtaining joint distributions of pairs of individuals under a specified demography model, each of them characterized by a genetic variant at a chosen locus. The two individuals are randomly sampled from either the same or two different populations. The model assumes three types of demographic events (split, merge and migration). Populations evolve according to the time-continuous Moran model with drift and Markov-process mutation. This latter process is described by the Lyapunov-type equation introduced by O'Brien and generalized in our previous works. Application of this equation constitutes an original contribution. In the result section of the paper we present sample applications of our model to both simulated and literature-based demographies. Among other we include a study of the Slavs-Balts-Finns genetic relationship, in which we model split and migrations between the Balts and Slavs. We also include another example that involves the migration rates between farmers and hunters-gatherers, based on modern and ancient DNA samples. This latter process was previously studied using coalescent simulations. Our results are in general agreement with the previous method, which provides validation of our approach. Although our model is not an alternative to simulation methods in the practical sense, it provides an algorithm to compute pairwise

  16. The level and patterns of fertility among women in Kersa Demographic Surveillance and Health Research Center (KDS-HRC) Field site, Kersa District, East Ethiopia


    Zelalem, Desalew; Semahegn, Agumasie; Tesfaye, Gezahegn; Sileshi, Balewgize


    Background Fertility is one of the three principal components of population dynamics. High fertility and rapid population growth exert negative influences on economic and social development. This study was aimed to estimate the level and trends of fertility among (15?49 years) old women in kersa demographic surveillance and health research center, kersa district Eastern Ethiopia. Methods The study was conducted at kersa demographic surveillance and health research center in kersa district, Ea...

  17. A Study of the Demographics of Web-Based Health-Related Social Media Users. (United States)

    Sadah, Shouq A; Shahbazi, Moloud; Wiley, Matthew T; Hristidis, Vagelis


    The rapid spread of Web-based social media in recent years has impacted how patients share health-related information. However, little work has studied the demographics of these users. Our aim was to study the demographics of users who participate in health-related Web-based social outlets to identify possible links to health care disparities. We analyze and compare three different types of health-related social outlets: (1) general Web-based social networks, Twitter and Google+, (2) drug review websites, and (3) health Web forums. We focus on the following demographic attributes: age, gender, ethnicity, location, and writing level. We build and evaluate domain-specific classifiers to infer missing data where possible. The estimated demographic statistics are compared against various baselines, such as Internet and social networks usage of the population. We found that (1) drug review websites and health Web forums are dominated by female users, (2) the participants of health-related social outlets are generally older with the exception of the 65+ years bracket, (3) blacks are underrepresented in health-related social networks, (4) users in areas with better access to health care participate more in Web-based health-related social outlets, and (5) the writing level of users in health-related social outlets is significantly lower than the reading level of the population. We identified interesting and actionable disparities in the participation of various demographic groups to various types of health-related social outlets. These disparities are significantly distinct from the disparities in Internet usage or general social outlets participation.

  18. Transition démographique, transition alimentaire. II De la logique démographique à la logique alimentaire


    Philippe Collomb


    Collomb Philippe. - Demographic transition, transition in nutrition. II. From the logic of population growth to the logic of demand for food. In a world where migrations from poor to rich countries is too limited in scope to reduce social inequalities between peoples, the poor countries, each according to its means, are forced to resort to importing increasingly massive amounts of cereals. The proportion of agricultural producers within the active national population can be used to estimate t...

  19. Rapid world modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, Charles; Jensen, Ken


    Sandia National Laboratories has designed and developed systems capable of large-scale, three-dimensional mapping of unstructured environments in near real time. This mapping technique is called rapid world modeling and has proven invaluable when used by prototype systems consisting of sensory detection devices mounted on mobile platforms. These systems can be deployed into previously unmapped environments and transmit real-time 3-D visual images to operators located remotely. This paper covers a brief history of the rapid world modeling system, its implementation on mobile platforms, and the current state of the technology. Applications to the nuclear power industry are discussed. (author)

  20. JINR rapid communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The present collection of rapid communications from JINR, Dubna, contains seven separate records on relativistic multiparticle processes in the central rapidity region at asymptotically high energies, a new experimental study of charged K→3π decays, pre-Cherenkov radiation as a phenomenon of 'light barrier', stable S=-2 H dibaryon found in Dubna, calculation of Green functions and gluon top in some unambiguous gauges, a method of a fast selection of inelastic nucleus-nucleus collisions for the CMS experiment and the manifestation of jet quenching in differential distributions of the total transverse energy in nucleus-nucleus collisions

  1. Rapid microbiology - raising awareness. (United States)

    Bailie, Jonathan


    A 'high-level overview' of some of the emerging rapid microbiology technologies designed to help healthcare engineering and infection control teams working in hospitals and other healthcare facilities more rapidly identify potentially hazardous levels of waterborne microorganisms in their water systems, enabling them to take prompt remedial action, and a look at the some of the 'pros and cons' of such testing techniques, was given by Nalco technical director, Howard Barnes, the vice-chair of the Legionella Control Association (LCA), at a recent LCA open day. HEJ editor, Jonathan Bailie, reports.

  2. JINR rapid communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The present collection of rapid communications from JINR, Dubna, contains seven separate records on invisible Z-boson width and restrictions on next-to-minimal supersymmetric standard model, cosmic test of honeycomb drift chambers, fission of 209 Bi, 232 Th, 235 U, 238 U and 237 Np in a spallation neutron field, rapid screening of spontaneous and radiation-induced structural changes at the vestigial gene of Drosophila melanogaster by polymerase chain reaction, gamma-ray multiplicities in sub-barrier fission of 226 Th and the decay constants of the scalar and pseudoscalar mesons in the quark models with quasilocal interaction

  3. Health & demographic surveillance system profile: the Nahuche Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Northern Nigeria (Nahuche HDSS). (United States)

    Alabi, Olatunji; Doctor, Henry V; Jumare, Abdulazeez; Sahabi, Nasiru; Abdulwahab, Ahmad; Findley, Sally E; Abubakar, Sani D


    The Nahuche Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) study site, established in 2009 with 137 823 individuals is located in Zamfara State, north western Nigeria. North-West Nigeria is a region with one of the worst maternal and child health indicators in Nigeria. For example, the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey estimated an under-five mortality rate of 185 deaths per 1000 live births for the north-west geo-political zone compared with a national average of 128 deaths per 1000 live births. The site comprises over 100 villages under the leadership of six district heads. Virtually all the residents of the catchment population are Hausa by ethnicity. After a baseline census in 2010, regular update rounds of data collection are conducted every 6 months. Data collection on births, deaths, migration events, pregnancies, marriages and marriage termination events are routinely conducted. Verbal autopsy (VA) data are collected on all deaths reported during routine data collection. Annual update data on antenatal care and household characteristics are also collected. Opportunities for collaborations are available at Nahuche HDSS. The Director of Nahuche HDSS, M.O. Oche at [] is the contact person for all forms of collaboration. © The Author 2014; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  4. What is on a demographer's mind?: a worldwide survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dalen, H.P.; Henkens, K.


    Background: Over the years, the community of demographers has grown in numbers and research interests, and has become increasingly interdisciplinary. The question is whether this process of growth and diversity has led to a fragmented community of demographers. Objective: We examine whether or not

  5. What is on a demographer's mind? : A worldwide survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dalen, H.P.; Henkens, C.J.I.M.


    BACKGROUND Over the years, the community of demographers has grown in numbers and research interests, and has become increasingly interdisciplinary. The question is whether this process of growth and diversity has led to a fragmented community of demographers. OBJECTIVE We examine whether or not

  6. Implications of research staff demographics for psychological science. (United States)

    Does, Serena; Ellemers, Naomi; Dovidio, John F; Norman, Jasmine B; Mentovich, Avital; van der Lee, Romy; Goff, Phillip Atiba


    Long-standing research traditions in psychology have established the fundamental impact of social categories, such as race and gender, on people's perceptions of themselves and others, as well as on the general human cognition and behavior. However, there is a general tendency to ignore research staff demographics (e.g., researchers' race and gender) in research development and research reports. Variation in research staff demographics can exert systematic and scientifically informative influences on results from psychological research. Consequently, research staff demographics need to be considered, studied, and/or reported, along with how these demographics were allowed to vary across participants or conditions (e.g., random assignment, matched with participant demographics, or included as a factor in the experimental design). In addition to providing an overview of multidisciplinary evidence of research staff demographics effects, we discuss how research staff demographics might influence research findings through (a) ingroup versus outgroup effects, (b) stereotype and (implicit) bias effects, and (c) priming and social tuning effects. Finally, an overview of recommended considerations is included (see the Appendix) to help illustrate how to systematically incorporate relevant research staff demographics in psychological science. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. [Some unique characteristics of the demographic situation in Russia]. (United States)

    Brui, B; Mikhailov, E


    The authors briefly describe the demographic situation in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic, using data from the 1989 census and current demographic research. Changes in the birth rate and population growth are examined, and migration flows in the various regions of the republic are compared. Factors affecting low birth rates are analyzed, and trends in marriage, divorce, mortality, and life expectancy are explored.

  8. Epidemiological and demographic HIV/AIDS projections: South Africa

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Epidemiological and demographic HIV/AIDS projections: South Africa. ... African Journal of AIDS Research ... Projections and the Spectrum model program developed by the Futures Group were used to model the South African HIV epidemic, project future trends in HIV/AIDS and estimate the demographic impact of AIDS.

  9. Developing a Global Mindset: Integrating Demographics, Sustainability, Technology, and Globalization (United States)

    Aggarwal, Raj


    Business schools face a number of challenges in responding to the business influences of demographics, sustainability, and technology--all three of which are also the fundamental driving forces for globalization. Demographic forces are creating global imbalances in worker populations and in government finances; the world economy faces…

  10. Relating plant height to demographic rates and extinction vulnerability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de Melinda M.J.; Hilbers, Jelle P.; Jongejans, Eelke; Ozinga, Wim A.; Hendriks, A.J.; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.


    To prioritize conservation efforts, it is important to know which plant species are most vulnerable to extinction. Intrinsic extinction vulnerabilities depend on demographic parameters, but for many species these demographic parameters are lacking. Body size has been successfully used as proxy of

  11. Optimal demographic information for policy development in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    After ten years of a democratic education system in South Africa , the demographic realities should be better understood in educational planning. The fragmented nature of the predemocratic education system has led to undesirable perceptions about quality education and has subsequently influenced the demographic ...

  12. Implications of Demographic Change for the Design of Retirement Programs. (United States)

    Biggs, John H.


    The influences that demographic changes may have on the design of private pension plans in the twenty-first century are examined. Major demographic factors to be considered include the aging of the population, declining mortality rate, potential for an even lower mortality rate, improved health for all ages and especially for older workers, and…

  13. Making the Case for Demographic Data in Extension Programming (United States)

    Curtis, Katherine J.; Verdoff, Daniel; Rizzo, Bill; Beaudoin, James


    Understanding one's community is essential for effective Extension programming across all program areas. The use of current and reliable demographic data is crucial for Extension to develop effective education and programming to track change and to uncover hidden community characteristics. We discuss what demographic data are, present…

  14. The Impact Of Demographic Factors On Organisational Commitment ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Study Investigated the Impact of demographic factors on organization commitment among workers in selected work organizations in Lagos State of Nigeria. This was for the purpose of ascertaining the relevance of demographic factors on workers' commitment to organizations goal achievement in Nigeria. The ex-post ...

  15. Indicators of young women’s modern contraceptive use in Burkina Faso and Mali from Demographic and Health Survey data


    O’Regan, Amy; Thompson, Gretchen


    Background High total fertility rates in Burkina Faso and Mali are leading to population growth beyond the agricultural and fiscal means of its citizens. Providing access to affordable family planning methods is a key step in driving the demographic transition where fertility and mortality rates decline. Furthermore, both nations face significant challenges as climate change is projected to disproportionately impact the western Sahel region undermining environmental, social and economic stabi...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radhika Gollapudi


    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Pregnancy though is a physiological event in a woman’s life, it has its own associated complications. In teenage pregnancies, the physical and emotional state of stress coupled with biological immaturity leads to adverse effect both on the health of the mother and the foetus. METHODS This study is a clinical prospective study analysing the demographics, maternal health issues and the foetal outcome in teenage pregnancies. The study was conducted over a period of one year at a government tertiary care center. Pregnant women in the age group of 13-19 years who delivered during the study period were included in the study group. All pregnant women over 20 years of age who delivered during the same period were taken as control group. Women who had medical disorders complicating pregnancy were excluded from the study. Anaemia, pregnancy induced hypertension, antepartum haemorrhage and mode of delivery were the maternal outcomes that were noted. Intrauterine growth retardation, prematurity, low birth weight, APGAR score were analysed with respect to the foetus. RESULTS In this study, the total number of pregnant women who delivered during the study period were 4782, 536 were teenage mothers, constituting 11.2% of the total pregnancies. Of the 536 teenage mothers, 69.78% belonged to the rural areas and 71.64% were found to have inadequate antenatal visits to the hospital. The mean age of teenage pregnancy was 17.18 years. Incidence of anaemia was 44.2% in comparison, the control group had an incidence of 33.02%. In our study, incidence of Pregnancy induced hypertension was 18.64% in teenage mothers and 10.6% in non-teenage mothers. The incidence of Antepartum Haemorrhage in our study was 8.94% in teenage mothers. Incidence of lower segment caesarean section was 22.76% in the teenage group as compared to 14.57% in the non-teenage group. In our study, 13.05% of teenage mothers had preterm deliveries as compared to 6.40% of non-teenage mothers

  17. Navigate the Digital Rapids (United States)

    Lindsay, Julie; Davis, Vicki


    How can teachers teach digital citizenship when the digital landscape is changing so rapidly? How can teachers teach proper online social interactions when the students are outside their classroom and thus outside their control? Will encouraging students to engage in global collaborative environments land teachers in hot water? These are the…

  18. Knox meets Cox: adapting epidemiological space-time statistics to demographic studies. (United States)

    Schmertmann, Carl P; Assuçãon, Renato M; Potter, Joseph E


    Many important questions and theories in demography focus on changes over time, and on how those changes differ over geographic and social space. Space-time analysis has always been important in studying fertility transitions, for example. However demographers have seldom used formal statistical methods to describe and analyze time series of maps. One formal method, used widely in epidemiology, criminology, and public health, is Knox 's space-time interaction test. In this article, we discuss the potential of the Knox test in demographic research and note some possible pitfalls. We demonstrate how to use familiar proportional hazards models to adapt the Knox test for demographic applications. These adaptations allow for nonrepeatable events and for the incorporation of structural variables that change in space and time. We apply the modified test to data on the onset offertility decline in Brazil over 1960-2000 and show how the modified method can produce maps indicating where and when diffusion effects seem strongest, net of covariate effects.

  19. Organizational Transition and Change Resistance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciprian Nicolescu


    Full Text Available The paper focuses on the very important atopic of organizational transition and change resistance. It is divided in four parts. The first part deals with transition inevitability and its content in the change process. The second part of the paper refers to the change resistance. After a short presentation of a recent approach of this topic, elaborated by Rick Maurer, the authors present their point of view, identifying 14 main causes refering to the main factors involved in the organizational transition. In the third part, authors have formulated a set of key elements which should be taken into consideration in order to achieve a rapid and succesful organizational changes. These key elements are valable for any type of organization – entreprise, institution, locality, region, country a.s.a. The last part of the study deals with conflicts approach, which appear almost always during organizational transition. The conflicts are separated in three categories and for whom are presented the methodes recommended in order to solve them with good results.

  20. Organizational Transition and Change Resistance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ovidiu Nicolescu


    Full Text Available The paper focuses on the very important atopic of organizational transition and change resistance. It is divided in four parts. The first part deals with transition inevitability and its content in the change process. The second part of the paper refers to the change resistance. After a short presentation of a recent approach of this topic, elaborated by Rick Maurer, the authors present their point of view, identifying 14 main causes refering to the main factors involved in the organizational transition. In the third part, authors have formulated a set of key elements which should be taken into consideration in order to achieve a rapid and succesful organizational changes. These key elements are valable for any type of organization – entreprise, institution, locality, region, country a.s.a. The last part of the study deals with conflicts approach, which appear almost always during organizational transition. The conflicts are separated in three categories and for whom are presented the methodes recommended in order to solve them with good results.

  1. Policy Implications of the Variations in Ghana's Fertility Transition ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The results of three consecutive Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS), carried out in 1986, 1993, 1998, show that Ghana's population has been experiencing a fertility transition. An analysis of the data, however, indicates that there are wide and increasing differentials in both the timing and trends in the process among ...

  2. World population in transition. (United States)

    Merrick, T W


    The world's population growth rate peaked at slightly over 2%/year in the late 1960s and in 1986 is down to 1.7% and falling. Annual numbers added continue to rise because these rates apply to a very large base, 4.9 billion in 1986. According to UN medium variant projections, world population growth will peak at 89 million/year in the late 1990s and then taper off until world population stabilizes in the late decade of the 21st century at about 10.2 billion. Close to 95% of this growth is occurring in less developed countries (LDCs) of Africa, Asia (minus Japan), and Latin America. LDC fertility rates are declining, except in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Latin America and South Asia, but most have far to go to reach the replacement level of 2.1 births/woman. Fertility is below replacement in virtually all more developed countries. For LDCs, large numbers will be added before stabilization even after attainment of replacement level fertility because of the demographic momentum built into their large and young population bases. This complicates efforts to bridge gaps between living standards in LDCs and industrialized countries. From a new debate about whether rapid population growth deters or stimulates economic growth, a more integrated view has emerged. This view recognizes the complementary relationship between efforts to slow population growth and other development efforts; e.g., to improve health and education, upgrade women's status, increase productivity. Most effective in the increased contraceptive prevalence and fertility declines seen in many LDCs has been the combination of organized programs to increase access to family planning information and supplies with socioeconomic development that enhances the desire for smaller families.

  3. An evaluation of alternative fuels usage by public transit agencies. (United States)


    The oil crisis of the 1970s forced Americans to reconsider using fossil fuels as a primary energy source. In : the public transit arena, private transit companies found themselves unable to compete in the urban : environment as rapidly rising oil pri...

  4. Rapid freezing of water under dynamic compression (United States)

    Myint, Philip C.; Belof, Jonathan L.


    Understanding the behavior of materials at extreme pressures is a central issue in fields like aerodynamics, astronomy, and geology, as well as for advancing technological grand challenges such as inertial confinement fusion. Dynamic compression experiments to probe high-pressure states often encounter rapid phase transitions that may cause the materials to behave in unexpected ways, and understanding the kinetics of these phase transitions remains an area of great interest. In this review, we examine experimental and theoretical/computational efforts to study the freezing kinetics of water to a high-pressure solid phase known as ice VII. We first present a detailed analysis of dynamic compression experiments in which water has been observed to freeze on sub-microsecond time scales to ice VII. This is followed by a discussion of the limitations of currently available molecular and continuum simulation methods in modeling these experiments. We then describe how our phase transition kinetics models, which are based on classical nucleation theory, provide a more physics-based framework that overcomes some of these limitations. Finally, we give suggestions on future experimental and modeling work on the liquid–ice VII transition, including an outline of the development of a predictive multiscale model in which molecular and continuum simulations are intimately coupled.

  5. Spatial extent in demographic research - approach and problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knežević Aleksandar


    Full Text Available One of the starting methodological problems in demographic research is the definition of spatial extent, which mostly doesn’t correspond to spatial extent already defined by different levels of administrative-territorial unitsthat are used for distribution of usable statistical data. That’s why determining the spatial extent of a demographic research is closely tied with administrative-territorial division of the territory that is being researched, wherein the fact that differentiation of demographic phenomena and processes cannot be the only basis of setting the principles of regionalization must be strictly acknowledged. This problem is particularly common in historical demographic analyses of geographically determined wholes, which are in administratively-territorial sense represented by one or more smaller territorial units, with their borders changing through the history, which directly affects comparability of the statistical data, and makes it considerably more difficult to track demographic change through longer time intervals. The result of these efforts is usually a solution based on a compromise which enables us to examine the dynamics of population change with little deviation from already defined borders of regional geographic wholes. For that reason in this paper the problem of defining spatial extent in demographic research is examined trough several different approaches in case of Eastern Serbia, as a geographically determined region, a historic area, a spatially functioning whole and as a statistical unit for demographic research, with no judgment calls in regard to any of the regionalization principles. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III 47006

  6. Demographics and diaspora, gender and genealogy: anthropological notes on Greek population policy. (United States)

    Paxson, H


    Since World War II, Greece's birth rate has fallen into a worsening decline. With the steady emigration of Greeks throughout the century to North America, Australia, and Germany, Greece has experienced one of the most rapid population declines in Europe. In 1991, the PASOK government convened a special Parliamentary Commission to study the demographic problem and develop recommendations for its resolution. Released in 1993, and comparing Greece's depressed population growth rates with the markedly higher ones of Albania and Turkey, the report argues that the demographic problem is one of national survival because a decline in the population undermines the territorial integrity and national independence of the country. At least half of all pregnancies in Greece end in abortion, and the report attributes 40% of the declining population growth rate to women who have repeat abortions. To confront the population dilemma, Greek officials are downplaying the diaspora and encouraging women at home to produce more babies. Maternal pensions forwarded by the state as family and population policies are being criticized by Athenian women as a means of professionalizing motherhood and perpetuating a limited vision of female adulthood. The author explores why the declining birth rate is considered to be such a problem in Greece, even though the other countries of Europe are also experiencing birth rate declines; why and how women are blamed for the demographic situation; and why the state, despite its vehement rhetoric, has failed to implement a family policy capable of boosting fertility.

  7. Rapid road repair vehicle (United States)

    Mara, Leo M.


    Disclosed is a rapid road repair vehicle capable of moving over a surface to be repaired at near normal posted traffic speeds to scan for and find an the high rate of speed, imperfections in the pavement surface, prepare the surface imperfection for repair by air pressure and vacuum cleaning, applying a correct amount of the correct patching material to effect the repair, smooth the resulting repaired surface, and catalog the location and quality of the repairs for maintenance records of the road surface. The rapid road repair vehicle can repair surface imperfections at lower cost, improved quality, at a higher rate of speed than was was heretofor possible, with significantly reduced exposure to safety and health hazards associated with this kind of road repair activities in the past.

  8. Rapidly processable radiographic material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brabandere, L.A. de; Borginon, H.A.; Pattyn, H.A.; Pollet, R.J.


    A new rapidly processable radiographic silver halide material is described for use in mammography and non-destructive testing of industrial materials. The radiographic material is used for direct exposure to penetrating radiation without the use of fluorescent-intensifying screens. It consists of a transparent support with a layer of hydrophilic colloid silver halide emulsion on one or both sides. Examples of the preparation of three different silver halide emulsions are given including the use of different chemical sensitizers. These new radiographic materials have good resistance to the formation of pressure marks in rapid processing apparatus and they have improved sensitivity for direct exposure to penetrating radiation compared to conventional radiographic emulsions. (U.K.)

  9. Rapid manufacturing for microfluidics

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Land, K


    Full Text Available for microfluidics K. LAND, S. HUGO, M MBANJWA, L FOURIE CSIR Materials Science and Manufacturing P O Box 395, Pretoria 0001, SOUTH AFRICA Email: INTRODUCTION Microfluidics refers to the manipulation of very small volumes of fluid.... Microfluidics is at the forefront of developing solutions for drug discovery, diagnostics (from glucose tests to malaria and TB testing) and environmental diagnostics (E-coli monitoring of drinking water). In order to quickly implement new designs, a rapid...

  10. Demographic inferences from large-scale NGS data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Casper-Emil Tingskov

    .g. human genetics. In this thesis, the three papers presented demonstrate the advantages of NGS data in the framework of population genetics for elucidating demographic inferences, important for understanding conservation efforts, selection and mutational burdens. In the first whole-genome study...... that the demographic history of the Inuit is the most extreme in terms of population size, of any human population. We identify a slight increase in the number of deleterious alleles because of this demographic history and support our results using simulations. We use this to show that the reduction in population size...

  11. Rapid MR imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edelman, R.R.; Buxton, R.B.; Brady, T.J.


    Conventional magnetic resonance (MR) imaging methods typically require several minutes to produce an image, but the periods of respiration, cardiac motion and peristalsis are on the order of seconds or less. The need to reduce motion artifact, as well as the need to reduce imaging time for patient comfort and efficiency, have provided a strong impetus for the development of rapid imaging methods. For abdominal imaging, motion artifacts due to respiration can be significantly reduced by collecting the entire image during one breath hold. For other applications, such as following the kinetics of administered contrast agents, rapid imaging is essential to achieve adequate time resolution. A shorter imaging time entails a cost in image signal/noise (S/N), but improvements in recent years in magnet homogeneity, gradient and radiofrequency coil design have led to steady improvements in S/N and consequently in image quality. For many chemical applications the available S/N is greater than needed, and a trade-off of lower S/N for a shorter imaging time is acceptable. In this chapter, the authors consider the underlying principles of rapid imaging as well as clinical applications of these methods. The bulk of this review concentrates on short TR imaging, but methods that provide for a more modest decrease in imaging time as well as or those that dramatically shorten the imaging time to tens of milliseconds are also discussed

  12. Automated rapid chemistry in heavy element research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schaedel, M.


    With the increasingly short half-lives of the heavy element isotopes in the transition region from the heaviest actinides to the transactinide elements the demand for automated rapid chemistry techniques is also increasing. Separation times of significantly less than one minute, high chemical yields, high repetition rates, and an adequate detection system are prerequisites for many successful experiments in this field. The development of techniques for separations in the gas phase and in the aqueous phase for applications of chemical or nuclear studies of the heaviest elements are briefly outlined. Typical examples of results obtained with automated techniques are presented for studies up to element 105, especially those obtained with the Automated Rapid Chemistry Apparatus, ARCA. The prospects to investigate the properties of even heavier elements with chemical techniques are discussed

  13. Prevalence of obesity, central obesity, and associated socio-demographic variables in Syrian women using different anthropometric indicators


    Bakir M Adel; Hammad Kholoud; Mohammad Loreen


    The prevalence of overweight and obesity is increasing globally in both developing and developed countries, especially, those with rapid cultural and social changes. The aims of current study were twofold: (a) to examine, for the first time in Syria, the prevalence of overweight, obesity and central obesity in Syrian women and obesity-related socio-demographic determinants, and (b) to establish a base line data about obesity related determinants needed to develop appropriate treatment and pre...

  14. Progression of the epidemiological transition in a rural South African setting: findings from population surveillance in Agincourt, 1993–2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chodziwadziwa W. Kabudula


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Virtually all low- and middle-income countries are undergoing an epidemiological transition whose progression is more varied than experienced in high-income countries. Observed changes in mortality and disease patterns reveal that the transition in most low- and middle-income countries is characterized by reversals, partial changes and the simultaneous occurrence of different types of diseases of varying magnitude. Localized characterization of this shifting burden, frequently lacking, is essential to guide decentralised health and social systems on the effective targeting of limited resources. Based on a rigorous compilation of mortality data over two decades, this paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the epidemiological transition in a rural South African population. Methods We estimate overall and cause-specific hazards of death as functions of sex, age and time period from mortality data from the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System and conduct statistical tests of changes and differentials to assess the progression of the epidemiological transition over the period 1993–2013. Results From the early 1990s until 2007 the population experienced a reversal in its epidemiological transition, driven mostly by increased HIV/AIDS and TB related mortality. In recent years, the transition is following a positive trajectory as a result of declining HIV/AIDS and TB related mortality. However, in most age groups the cause of death distribution is yet to reach the levels it occupied in the early 1990s. The transition is also characterized by persistent gender differences with more rapid positive progression in females than males. Conclusions This typical rural South African population is experiencing a protracted epidemiological transition. The intersection and interaction of HIV/AIDS and antiretroviral treatment, non-communicable disease risk factors and complex social and behavioral changes will impact

  15. Fertility transition: forecast for demography. (United States)

    Caputo, M; Nicotra, M; Gloria-Bottini, E


    By the end of the 20th century most industrialized nations had undergone the so-called fertility transition, characterized by a reduction in fertility to below replacement level and a delay in age at initiation of child-bearing. An emerging concern is the severe economic and social consequences of this demographic decline. We present an overview of fertility changes in Italy in the second half of the 20th century and a mathematical model that may provide projections for the future of the demographic situation. Starting in 1950 the increment of the number of children born in Italy is initially positive; however, beginning in 1965 the trend suddenly becomes negative, and this negative trend further increased in 1975. A slight improvement is observed in 1980, followed by a stable situation beginning in 1987. Relevant socioeconomic and cultural events in Italy coincide with these variations in the fertility trend. Malnutrition, which had been endemic for centuries in some areas of central and southern Italy, disappeared rather abruptly in early 1960. The improvement in the economic situation was also associated with a decrease in illiteracy and with many sociocultural changes, with the emergence of new demands that decreased propensity for childbearing. The additional deceleration observed in 1975 corresponds to the diffusion of contraceptive procedures. The progression of sociocultural changes has led to a progressive liberation of women from the biological burden of childbearing. Two phenomena seem relevant in this context: women's emerging interest in entering the workforce and the possibility to disconnect sex from childbearing. The social function of feminism has overwhelmed the primary function of survival and diffusion of the species, giving rise to relevant and worrying demographic effects. However, the modern woman has an unconscious memory of her primary biological role, depending on both her genetic structure and cultural heritage, that should bring about a

  16. Nutrition transition and food sustainability. (United States)

    Belahsen, Rekia


    The aim of the present paper is to review nutrition transition (NT) ongoing in low and middle income countries and the associated dietary changes. NT is accompanied by demographic and epidemiological transition associated with economic development and urbanisation. In these countries, while the problems of hunger and undernourishment persist, there is an escalation of diet-related non-communicable diseases; making them face both problems of malnutrition, under and overnutrition. Indeed, in addition to protein energy malnutrition underweight and micronutrient deficiencies affect a high proportion of children and women. Conversely, changes in dietary habits and physical activity patterns have led to emergence of chronic diseases such as obesity, diabetes, hypertension, stroke, hyperlipidaemia, CHD and cancer. One possible explanation of weight gain and its associated health consequences is the trend of the consumption of already prepared meals and the restaurants that are in continuous development leading to high consumption of foods rich in sugar and fat. The health problems associated with NT have not spared populations in the Mediterranean area where the type of diet is reported to be healthy and to protect against cardiovascular risks. This is seen in North Africa that belongs also to the Mediterranean basin, where the nutritional situation raises the problem of traditional foods sustainability. Accurate nutritional policy and education are needed to redress the effects of malnutrition related to NT on health.

  17. China’s “One-child family” demographic policy - Analyzing the consequences of the measures taken to confine the demographic growth of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pascu, M.L.


    Full Text Available The so called “one-child policy” has brought economic benefits in China for the three decades since it was enforced, but it has also brought a series of disadvantages with consequences in the near future: increase of the dependency ratio in China with the accentuation of the population ageing phenomenon and the occurrence of disparities in the sex ratio that will lead to special social problems. Some experts believe that the simplistic reasoning behind the “one-child policy” might be responsible for the next demographic crisis. On one hand, the number of Chinese citizens is still growing. On the other hand China faces a very rapid aging of the population.

  18. Nutrition transition in South Asia: the emergence of non-communicable chronic diseases [version 2; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghose Bishwajit


    Full Text Available Overview: South Asian countries have experienced a remarkable economic growth during last two decades along with subsequent transformation in social, economic and food systems. Rising disposable income levels continue to drive the nutrition transition characterized by a shift from a traditional high-carbohydrate, low-fat diets towards diets with a lower carbohydrate and higher proportion of saturated fat, sugar and salt. Steered by various transitions in demographic, economic and nutritional terms, South Asian population are experiencing a rapidly changing disease profile. While the healthcare systems have long been striving to disentangle from the vicious cycle of poverty and undernutrition, South Asian countries are now confronted with an emerging epidemic of obesity and a constellation of other non-communicable diseases (NCDs. This dual burden is bringing about a serious health and economic conundrum and is generating enormous pressure on the already overstretched healthcare system of South Asian countries.   Objectives: The Nutrition transition has been a very popular topic in the field of human nutrition during last few decades and many countries and broad geographic regions have been studied. However there is no review on this topic in the context of South Asia  as yet. The main purpose of this review is to highlight the factors accounting for the onset of nutrition transition and its subsequent impact on epidemiological transition in five major South Asian countries including Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Special emphasis was given on India and Bangladesh as they together account for 94% of the regional population and about half world’s malnourished population. Methods: This study is literature based. Main data sources were published research articles obtained through an electronic medical databases search.

  19. [Mali: the offer of education disturbed by demographic variables]. (United States)

    Tounkara, B


    Although educational reforms in 1962 have played a positive role in the socioeconomic and cultural development of Mali, the most recent analyses of the educational system have shown it to be in crisis for reasons both endogenous and exogenous. Huge class sizes, lack of teaching materials, and insufficient training of teachers have affected the quality of education. 80% of Mali's population is illiterate but the rate of school attendance is under 30%. Financial resources devoted to education have not grown as fast as population. The situation is made worse by structural adjustment programs of the past few years that have encouraged the government share of educational expenses to decline and the role of parents and the private sector to increase. The 1987 Demographic and Health Survey showed that Mali's rate of population growth is 2.7%/year. 45% of the population is under 15, amounting to some 3.5 million children. Great efforts are needed just to provide schools and teachers and to maintain the rate of school attendance at its current level of 27%, 1 of the lowest in the world. To attain the goal of 50% school attendance by the year 2000, the number of students beginning primary school should increase by 11.3% per year. But currently the number of students aged 6-11 is actually shrinking by almost 1% per year. At the level of the family, the expenses of school attendance are an important factor in nonattendance. The high annual costs constitute an insurmountable barrier for parents of large families. The loss of children's labor in rural areas is an added cost of schooling. School attendance in Mali is becoming a source and means of social inequality. The seasonal or permanent migration of a large part of the population has also been an obstacle to school attendance. the unavailability of mothers who teach during their 3 months of maternity leave and 2 hours daily break for breast feeding, in addition to absenteeism when their children are sick, is another effect

  20. Demographic factors and land-use planning in the small islands of Southern Europe (United States)

    Soliani, Lamberto; Rossi, Orazio


    Since the end of the 1970s, the southern European countries have shown an exceptional reduction in fertility rate. From the highest levels among the developed nations, these countries dropped beneath the substitution rate level: in Greece there is an average of about 1.5 children per woman, and Italy (starting three to four years ago), with 1.3 children per woman, is now the country with the lowest fecundity rate in the world. Land-use planning in southern European small islands therefore requires substantial revision. In the areas where western civilization began, which are highly populated and have a long history, cultural and ethnic aspects of tradition are fundamental to environmental management and to the defense of historical heritage. They also place a strong value on sustaining tourism, the most relevant economic activity, that allows them to survive and maintain a high welfare level. For some decades they have had populations with a marked presence of young people and high emigration rates, but now they are fast becoming dominated by the elderly and must prepare for a period of fast reduction in youth of the workforce, while the peripheral areas of Asia and Africa are entering a sudden demographic growth phase. The demographic structure has also been deeply altered both by previous migrations and by random variations, as usually happens in all small communities. Social services for younger and older people have had to be adapted rapidly, reorganizing high-school management, hospital and health-care structures, in-house assistance, and so on. There is a need to rethink the job market and favor the immigration of highly specialized workers, which is a necessity for technical evolution. Sustainable development is constrained nowadays not only by the scarcity of natural resources, but also by the quality and quantity of human resources. Proper policies for population and land-use planning are highly correlated factors; they have to be considered with respect

  1. The demographic, clinical and forensic profile of offenders ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The demographic, clinical and forensic profile of offenders diagnosed with epilepsy referred to the Free State Psychiatric Complex Observation Unit in terms of section 77 and/or 78 of the Criminal Procedure Act 51 of 1977.

  2. Political demography: Powerful trends under-attended by demographic science. (United States)

    Teitelbaum, Michael S


    The interconnections between politics and the dramatic demographic changes under way around the world have been neglected by the two research disciplines that could contribute most to their understanding: demography and political science. Instead, this area of 'political demography' has largely been ceded to political activists, pundits, and journalists, leading often to exaggerated or garbled interpretation. The terrain includes some of the most politically sensitive and contested issues: alleged demographically determined shifts in the international balance of power; low fertility, population decline, and demographic ageing; international migration; change in national identity; and compositional shifts in politically sensitive social categories and human rights. Meanwhile many governments and non-governmental actors have actively pursued varieties of 'strategic demography', deploying fertility, mortality, or migration as instruments of domestic or international policy. Political scientists and demographers could and should use their knowledge and analytic techniques to improve understanding and to moderate excessive claims and fears on these topics.

  3. Effects of Demographic Factors, Body Mass Index, Alcohol Drinking ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    9.6) and in females, lower ... fill in a demographic self‑questionnaire that included information about age, gender, ..... of irritable bowel syndrome in young adult Malaysians: A survey .... the development of irritable bowel syndrome in adolescents:.

  4. EnviroAtlas - Paterson, NJ - Demographics by Block Group (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset is a summary of key demographic groups for the EnviroAtlas community. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online...

  5. Demographic Trends (1970-2010) for Coastal Geographies (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Demographic Trends (1970-2010) were derived from Census Block Group Data for 13 different coastal geographies. For a full listing of the geographies available,...

  6. Genetic diversity and demographic evolution of baobab (Adansonia ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ezedom Theresa


    Sep 18, 2013 ... population of Ferlo has undergone a recent demographic expansion. Although .... diseases, parasites, predators and environmental change. (Amos and ..... Baobab (Adansonia digitata L.) in Rural West African Subsistence-.

  7. Assessing economic and demographic impacts of intermodal transportation systems. (United States)


    There exists a large literature of transportation impacts on economic and demographic change. Prior studies have focused on single modes of transportation individually rather than integrating these modes. Yet, little work has been undertaken to study...

  8. Demographic Factors as Correlates of Health – Seeking Behaviour ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Oct 2, 2014 ... The study concludes that demographic factors like marital status and religious affiliations are correlates to .... before God. The three .... probability of accepting voluntary HIV counselling and testing services than their female.

  9. Customers Demographics Influence on Usage of Retail Banking Channels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neha GUPTA


    Full Text Available The study presents the usage of retail banking influenced by customers’ demographics of selected Public Sector Banks (PSBs of India. The study was based on primary data collected through structured questionnaire. The simple random sampling technique used for data collection for sample size 692. The study finds that public sector banks need to understand the usage pattern of an individual customer using delivery channel to add greater value to customers. Respondent age groups influence ATMs usage. Internet banking is majorly influenced by the customers’ demographics. Respondents’ age group and qualification influence mobile banking. Branch lobby kiosk is not influenced by any demographics. The identification of most influential demographic variable will help to build strong and effective cross-selling and up-selling of financial products and services. Our study was limited to the customers of PSBs of India. This study may be helpful to PSBs for enhancing effective usage of delivery channels.

  10. Clinical and Socio-Demographic Characteristic of Children who ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Clinical and Socio-Demographic Characteristic of Children who receive Emergency Blood Transfusion in Orlu, Imo State Nigeria. ... Malaria was the commonest case of severe anaemia requiring urgent blood transfusion either singly (52.8%) ...

  11. Demographic processes limiting seedling recruitment in arid grassland restoration (United States)

    Jeremy J. James; Tony J. Svejcar; Matthew J. Rinella


    Seeding is an important management tool in aridland restoration, but seeded species often fail to establish. Previous research has largely focused on the technical aspects of seeding with little effort directed at identifying demographic processes driving recruitment failures.

  12. Modifiable Risk factors of Hypertension and Socio‑demographic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    , Hypertension, Modifiable risk factors, Oghara ... to 140/90 mmHg is the most common Non Communicable .... In the first part, data on socio‑demographic variables of the ... blood pressure, and it was measured using sphygmomanometer.

  13. Socio-demographic and clinical factors affecting adherence to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Socio-demographic and clinical factors affecting adherence to antihypertensive medications and blood pressure control among patients attending the family practice clinic in a tertiary hospital in northern Nigeria.

  14. perceived nutrition benefits and socio-demographic factors affecting ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)



    May 7, 2018 ... AFFECTING CONSUMPTION OF FOREST FOODS IN EASTERN AND ... P. O. Box 2067, .... and knowledge of health benefits of forest .... R FUNGO et al. 210. TABLE 5. Logistic regression analysis on the socio demographic ...

  15. Geo-demographic analysis of fatal motorcycle crashes (United States)


    The objective of this study is to analyze the combined motor vehicle crash data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) with the Claritas geo-demographic database from the lifestyle perspective to determine the appropriate media to use in ...

  16. The Changing Demographic Profile of the United States

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Shrestha, Laura B


    ...." The objective of this report is to highlight some of the demographic changes that have already occurred since 1950 and to illustrate how these and future trends will reshape the nation in the decades to come (through 2050...

  17. Elasticities and the link between demographic and evolutionary dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Tienderen, P.H.


    Multivariate selection models and demographic matrix projections are closely related. The subtle differences among the parameters of both approaches (sensitivities, elasticities, selection differentials, and gradients) can be confusing. I suggest a hierarchical framework for analysis using

  18. EnviroAtlas - New York, NY - Demographics by Block Group (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset is a summary of key demographic groups for the EnviroAtlas community. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online...

  19. EnviroAtlas - Memphis, TN - Demographics by Block Group (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset is a summary of key demographic groups for the EnviroAtlas community. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online...

  20. Mapping populations at risk: improving spatial demographic data for infectious disease modeling and metric derivation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatem Andrew J


    Full Text Available Abstract The use of Global Positioning Systems (GPS and Geographical Information Systems (GIS in disease surveys and reporting is becoming increasingly routine, enabling a better understanding of spatial epidemiology and the improvement of surveillance and control strategies. In turn, the greater availability of spatially referenced epidemiological data is driving the rapid expansion of disease mapping and spatial modeling methods, which are becoming increasingly detailed and sophisticated, with rigorous handling of uncertainties. This expansion has, however, not been matched by advancements in the development of spatial datasets of human population distribution that accompany disease maps or spatial models. Where risks are heterogeneous across population groups or space or dependent on transmission between individuals, spatial data on human population distributions and demographic structures are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. The disease impact in terms of morbidity, mortality, and speed of spread varies substantially with demographic profiles, so that identifying the most exposed or affected populations becomes a key aspect of planning and targeting interventions. Subnational breakdowns of population counts by age and sex are routinely collected during national censuses and maintained in finer detail within microcensus data. Moreover, demographic and health surveys continue to collect representative and contemporary samples from clusters of communities in low-income countries where census data may be less detailed and not collected regularly. Together, these freely available datasets form a rich resource for quantifying and understanding the spatial variations in the sizes and distributions of those most at risk of disease in low income regions, yet at present, they remain unconnected data scattered across national statistical offices and websites. In this paper we discuss the deficiencies of existing

  1. Demographic history and population structure of Anopheles pseudopunctipennis in Argentina based on the mitochondrial COI gene. (United States)

    Dantur Juri, María J; Moreno, Marta; Prado Izaguirre, Mónica J; Navarro, Juan C; Zaidenberg, Mario O; Almirón, Walter R; Claps, Guillermo L; Conn, Jan E


    Anopheles pseudopunctipennis is an important malaria vector in the Neotropical region and the only species involved in Plasmodium transmission in the Andean foothills. Its wide geographical distribution in America, high preference for biting humans and capacity to rest inside dwellings after feeding, are attributes contributing to its vector status. Previous reports have tried to elucidate its taxonomic status, distinguishing populations from North, Central and South America. In the present study we used a mitochondrial marker to examine the demographic history of An. pseudopunctipennis in northwestern Argentina. Twelve localities were selected across 550 km of the distribution of this species in Argentina, including two near the Bolivian border and several in South Tucumán, for sampling. A fragment of the cytochrome oxidase I (COI) gene was sequenced and haplotype relationships were analyzed by a statistical parsimony network and a Neighbor-Joining (NJ) tree. Genetic differentiation was estimated with FST. Historical demographic processes were evaluated using diversity measures, neutrality tests and mismatch distribution. Forty-one haplotypes were identified, of which haplotype A was the most common and widely distributed. Neither the network nor the NJ tree showed any geographic differentiation between northern and southern populations. Haplotype diversities, Tajima's DT and Fu & Li's F and D neutrality tests and mismatch distribution supported a scenario of Holocene demographic expansion. The demographic pattern suggests that An. pseudopunctipennis has undergone a single colonization process, and the ancestral haplotype is shared by specimens from all localities, indicating mitochondrial gene flow. Genetic differentiation was minimal, observed only between one northern and one southern locality. The estimated time of the population expansion of this species was during the Holocene. These data suggest that regional vector control measures would be equally

  2. Auditing Search Engines for Differential Satisfaction Across Demographics


    Mehrotra, R.; Anderson, A.; Diaz, F.; Sharma, A.; Wallach, H. M.; Yilmaz, E.


    Many online services, such as search engines, social media platforms, and digital marketplaces, are advertised as being available to any user, regardless of their age, gender, or other demographic factors. However, there are growing concerns that these services may systematically underserve some groups of users. In this paper, we present a framework for internally auditing such services for differences in user satisfaction across demographic groups, using search engines as a case study. We fi...

  3. Demographic Risks of the Pension Reform in the Russian Federation


    Arkady Konstantinovich Solovyev


    The purpose of the study is to analyze the impact of the demographic crisis in the country’s fiscal system. In the article, the pension system for the first time is considered as a multifactorial model, which during the different historical periods corrects the degree of its dependence on the interdependent complex of macroeconomic and demographic factors. The economically sound and socially correct accounting of the interference of retirement age and the specified development factor...

  4. Demographic Trends in Germany and their Economic Implications


    Rembrandt Scholz; Carsten Schröder


    The present paper explores demographic trends in Germany, as well as the determinants of these trends, and the economic implications of these demographic changes for the country. A detailed spatial analysis reveals substantial differences in the speed and intensity of the processes of population aging and population decline across the German regions. The results indicate that these processes are particularly pronounced in the state of Mecklenburg Western-Pomerania. As a new contribution to th...

  5. Traditional wealth, modern goods, and demographic behavior in rural Senegal


    Garenne, Michel


    The study investigates the relationships of demographic indicators (fertility, mortality, marriage, education) with modern and traditional wealth in rural Senegal. Data were based on rural households interviewed in the 2011 DHS survey. An Absolute Wealth Index was computed from a list of 15 modern goods. A Traditional Wealth Index was computed from data on land and livestock per capita. Modern wealth was always associated with modern demographic behavior (lower fertility, lower mortality, hig...

  6. Total rewards that retain: A study of demographic preferences


    Monica Pregnolato; Mark H.R. Bussin; Anton F. Schlechter


    Orientation: Changing workplace demographics and a dearth of employees with scarce skills have forced employers to better understand the various factors that retain talented employees. Research purpose: In this empirical study, the reward preferences and ideal combination of total reward elements (based on an estimation of their relative importance) that retain employees from various demographic groups, including employees of different race, gender and age groups, were investigated. M...

  7. Demographic corrections for the modified Telephone Screening for Cognitive Status


    Dennett, Kathryn; Tometich, Danielle; Duff, Kevin


    Despite the growing use of the modified Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (mTICS) as a cognitive screening instrument, it does not yet have demographic corrections. Demographic data, mTICS, and a neuropsychological battery were collected from 274 community dwelling older adults with intact cognition or mild cognitive impairments. Age, education, premorbid intellect, and depression were correlated with mTICS scores. Using regression equations, age and education significantly predicted m...

  8. JINR rapid communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The present collection of rapid communications from JINR, Dubna, contains seven separate records on decays of excited strange mesons in the extended NJL model, production of heavy evaporation residues in the reactions induced by an extracted 48 Ca beam on a 208 Pb target, scaling behaviour of tensor analyzing power (A yy ) in the inelastic scattering or relativistic deuterons,two-photon collisions at very low Q 2 from LEP2: forthcoming results, high magnetic field uniformity superconducting magnet for a movable polarized target, multichannel time-to-digital converter for drift detector and wavelet-analysis: application to Gaussian signals

  9. JINR rapid communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The present collection of rapid communications from JINR, Dubna, contains eight separate reports on the measurement of charge radii for Ti nuclei, spectroscopy of 13 Be, concentrations of hadrons and quark-gluon plasma in mixed phase, experimental results on one-spin pion asymmetry in the d↑ + A → π±(90 0 ) + X process, new results on cumulative pion and proton production in p-D collisions, investigation of charge exchange reactions, the study of the tensor analyzing power in cumulative particle production on a deuteron beam and an evidence for the excited states of the S = -2 stable light dibaryon. 32 figs., 6 tabs

  10. JINR rapid communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The present collection of rapid communications from JINR, Dubna, contains five separate reports on analytic QCD running coupling with finite IR behaviour and universal α bar s (0) value, quark condensate in the interacting pion- nucleon medium at finite temperature and baryon number density, γ-π 0 discrimination with a shower maximum detector using neural networks for the solenoidal tracker at RHIC, off-specular neutron reflection from magnetic media with nondiagonal reflectivity matrices and molecular cytogenetics of radiation-induced gene mutations in Drosophila melanogaster. 21 fig., 1 tab

  11. JINR rapid communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The present collection of rapid communications from JINR, Dubna, contains seven separate records on additional conditions on eigenvectors in solving inverse problem for two-dimensional Schroedinger equation, on an absolute calibration of deuteron beam polarization at LHE, determination of the vector component of the polarization of the JINR synchrophasotron deuteron beam, wavelet-analysis: criterion of reliable signal selection, on asymptotics in inclusive production of antinuclei and nuclear fragments, use of neutron activation analysis at the IBR-2 reactor for atmospheric monitoring and impulse method for temperature measurement of silicon detectors

  12. JINR rapid communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The present collection of rapid communications from JINR, Dubna, contains six separate reports on Monte Carlo simulation of silicon detectors for the ALICE experiment at LHC, a study of single tagged multihadronic γγ* events at an average Q 2 of 90 GeV 2 , epithermal neutron activation analysis of moss, lichen and pine needles in atmospheric deposition monitoring, the theory of neutrino oscillation, coupled quadrupole and monopole vibrations of large amplitude and test of the Ellis-Jaffe sum rule using parametrization of the measured lepton-proton asymmetry. 21 figs., 18 tabs

  13. Rapidly variable relatvistic absorption (United States)

    Parker, M.; Pinto, C.; Fabian, A.; Lohfink, A.; Buisson, D.; Alston, W.; Jiang, J.


    I will present results from the 1.5Ms XMM-Newton observing campaign on the most X-ray variable AGN, IRAS 13224-3809. We find a series of nine absorption lines with a velocity of 0.24c from an ultra-fast outflow. For the first time, we are able to see extremely rapid variability of the UFO features, and can link this to the X-ray variability from the inner accretion disk. We find a clear flux dependence of the outflow features, suggesting that the wind is ionized by increasing X-ray emission.

  14. Biodiesel Mass Transit Demonstration (United States)


    The Biodiesel Mass Transit Demonstration report is intended for mass transit decision makers and fleet managers considering biodiesel use. This is the final report for the demonstration project implemented by the National Biodiesel Board under a gran...

  15. Public Transit Stations (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — fixed rail transit stations within the Continental United States, Alaska, Hawaii, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. The modes of transit that are serviced...

  16. India's population in transition. (United States)

    Visaria, L; Visaria, P


    This demographic profile of India addresses fertility, family planning, and economic issues. India is described as a country shifting from economic policies of self-reliance to active involvement in international trade. Wealth has increased, particularly at higher educational levels, yet 25% still live below the official poverty line and almost 66% of Indian women are illiterate. The government program in family planning, which was instituted during the early 1950s, did not change the rate of natural increase, which remained stable at 2.2% over the past 30 years. 1993 marked the first time the growth rate decline to under 2%. The growth rate in 1995 was 1.9%. The total population is expected double in 36 years. Only Nigeria, Pakistan, and Bangladesh had a higher growth rate and higher fertility in 1995. India is geographically diverse (with the northern Himalayan mountain zone, the central alluvial plains, the western desert region, and the southern peninsula with forest, mountains, and plains). There are regional differences in the fertility rates, which range from replacement level in Kerala and Goa to 5.5 children in Uttar Pradesh. Fertility is expected to decline throughout India due to the slower pace of childbearing among women over the age of 35 years, the increase in contraceptive use, and increases in marriage age. Increased educational levels in India and its state variations are related to lower fertility. Literacy campaigns are considered to be effective means of increasing the educational levels of women. Urbanization is not expected to markedly affect fertility levels. Urban population, which is concentrated in a few large cities, remains a small proportion of total population. Greater shifts are evident in the transition from agriculture to other wage labor. Fertility is expected to decline as women's share of labor force activity increases. The major determinant of fertility decline in India is use of family planning, which has improved in access

  17. Rapid Geophysical Surveyor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roybal, L.G.; Carpenter, G.S.; Josten, N.E.


    The Rapid Geophysical Surveyor (RGS) is a system designed to rapidly and economically collect closely-spaced geophysical data used for characterization of US Department of Energy waste sites. Geophysical surveys of waste sites are an important first step in the remediation and closure of these sites; especially older sites where historical records are inaccurate and survey benchmarks have changed because of refinements in coordinate controls and datum changes. Closely-spaced data are required to adequately differentiate pits, trenches, and soil vault rows whose edges may be only a few feet from each other. A prototype vehicle designed to collect magnetic field data was built at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) during the summer of 1992. The RGS was funded by the Buried Waste Integrated Demonstration program. This vehicle was demonstrated at the Subsurface Disposal Area (SDA) within the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the INEL in September 1992. Magnetic data were collected over two areas in the SDA, with a total survey area of about 1.7 acres. Data were collected at a nominal density of 2 1/2 in. along survey lines spaced 1-ft apart. Over 350,000 data points were collected over a 6 day period corresponding to about 185 worker-days using conventional ground survey techniques

  18. Estimating demographic contributions to effective population size in an age-structured wild population experiencing environmental and demographic stochasticity. (United States)

    Trask, Amanda E; Bignal, Eric M; McCracken, Davy I; Piertney, Stuart B; Reid, Jane M


    A population's effective size (N e ) is a key parameter that shapes rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, thereby influencing evolutionary processes and population viability. However, estimating N e , and identifying key demographic mechanisms that underlie the N e to census population size (N) ratio, remains challenging, especially for small populations with overlapping generations and substantial environmental and demographic stochasticity and hence dynamic age-structure. A sophisticated demographic method of estimating N e /N, which uses Fisher's reproductive value to account for dynamic age-structure, has been formulated. However, this method requires detailed individual- and population-level data on sex- and age-specific reproduction and survival, and has rarely been implemented. Here, we use the reproductive value method and detailed demographic data to estimate N e /N for a small and apparently isolated red-billed chough (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax) population of high conservation concern. We additionally calculated two single-sample molecular genetic estimates of N e to corroborate the demographic estimate and examine evidence for unobserved immigration and gene flow. The demographic estimate of N e /N was 0.21, reflecting a high total demographic variance (σ2dg) of 0.71. Females and males made similar overall contributions to σ2dg. However, contributions varied among sex-age classes, with greater contributions from 3 year-old females than males, but greater contributions from ≥5 year-old males than females. The demographic estimate of N e was ~30, suggesting that rates of increase of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation per generation will be relatively high. Molecular genetic estimates of N e computed from linkage disequilibrium and approximate Bayesian computation were approximately 50 and 30, respectively, providing no evidence of substantial unobserved immigration which could bias demographic estimates of N e . Our analyses identify

  19. Quantum phase transitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sachdev, S.


    Phase transitions are normally associated with changes of temperature but a new type of transition - caused by quantum fluctuations near absolute zero - is possible, and can tell us more about the properties of a wide range of systems in condensed-matter physics. Nature abounds with phase transitions. The boiling and freezing of water are everyday examples of phase transitions, as are more exotic processes such as superconductivity and superfluidity. The universe itself is thought to have passed through several phase transitions as the high-temperature plasma formed by the big bang cooled to form the world as we know it today. Phase transitions are traditionally classified as first or second order. In first-order transitions the two phases co-exist at the transition temperature - e.g. ice and water at 0 deg., or water and steam at 100 deg. In second-order transitions the two phases do not co-exist. In the last decade, attention has focused on phase transitions that are qualitatively different from the examples noted above: these are quantum phase transitions and they occur only at the absolute zero of temperature. The transition takes place at the ''quantum critical'' value of some other parameter such as pressure, composition or magnetic field strength. A quantum phase transition takes place when co-operative ordering of the system disappears, but this loss of order is driven solely by the quantum fluctuations demanded by Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. The physical properties of these quantum fluctuations are quite distinct from those of the thermal fluctuations responsible for traditional, finite-temperature phase transitions. In particular, the quantum system is described by a complex-valued wavefunction, and the dynamics of its phase near the quantum critical point requires novel theories that have no analogue in the traditional framework of phase transitions. In this article the author describes the history of quantum phase transitions. (UK)

  20. Cosmological phase transitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolb, E.W.


    If modern ideas about the role of spontaneous symmetry breaking in fundamental physics are correct, then the Universe should have undergone a series of phase transitions early in its history. The study of cosmological phase transitions has become an important aspect of early-Universe cosmology. In this lecture I review some very recent work on three aspects of phase transitions: the electroweak transition, texture, and axions

  1. Modeling for transition management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chappin, E.J.L.; Dijkema, G.P.J.


    A framework for the modeling and simulation of transitions is presented. A transition, “substantial change in the state of a socio-technical system”, typically unfolds over a long timespan. We therefore suggest to use simulation to inform transition managers on the effect of their decisions.

  2. Modeling for Transition Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chappin, Emile J L; Dijkema, Gerard P.J.


    A framework for the modeling and simulation of transitions is presented. A transition, “substantial change in the state of a socio-technical system”, typically unfolds over a long timespan. We therefore suggest to use simulation to inform transition managers on the effect of their decisions.

  3. Microwave stability at transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holt, J.A.; Colestock, P.L.


    The question of microwave stability at transition is revisited using a Vlasov approach retaining higher order terms in the particle dynamics near the transition energy. A dispersion relation is derived which can be solved numerically for the complex frequency in terms of the longitudinal impedance and other beam parameters. Stability near transition is examined and compared with simulation results

  4. Transit manager's handbook. (United States)


    This handbook provides an overview of public transit in Iowa and how to do business with the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) Office of Public Transit (OPT). It is intended to be a tool to assist transit managers navigate through the many...

  5. Transit labor relations guide (United States)


    This report is designed as a guide for those involved in labor relations in the transit industry. It begins with a history of transit labor relations. The economic, political, and legal environment of transit relations is then discussed. A section fo...

  6. Transition: Preschool to Kindergarten (United States)

    Arizona Department of Education, 2007


    Transition is movement or change without interruption. It should be a smooth flow from one place or condition to another. While the transition plan for a student receiving special education services is designed to prepare him or her for life after high school, transition can start when a child enters preschool. The second of six distinct stages of…

  7. Assessment of transition readiness in adolescents and young adults with chronic health conditions. (United States)

    Jensen, Paul T; Paul, Gabrielle V; LaCount, Stephanie; Peng, Juan; Spencer, Charles H; Higgins, Gloria C; Boyle, Brendan; Kamboj, Manmohan; Smallwood, Christopher; Ardoin, Stacy P


    Transition from pediatric to adult health care is a vulnerable period for adolescents and young adults. Challenges include paucity of validated measures to assess patients' transition readiness. We evaluated the Transition Readiness Assessment Questionnaire (TRAQ) in adolescents and young adults with rheumatic, gastrointestinal, and endocrine disorders. We examined whether baseline TRAQ scores and other demographic variables predicted transition to adult care over a three year follow up period. In this descriptive study at a single institution, eighty-nine adolescents at a single pediatric academic medical center completed demographic and medical history surveys and the TRAQ and were followed over 3 years by telephone interview to determine whether they had transitioned to adult subspecialty care. Transition was defined as attending at least one adult subspecialty appointment. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to determine whether TRAQ scores predicted time to transition. Of the participants, 56% had rheumatic, 21% endocrine, and 23% gastrointestinal conditions. The TRAQ self-management domain score was not significantly associated with age, gender, socioeconomic status, or specialty. The TRAQ self-advocacy score increased with age. Baseline TRAQ scores did not predict transition or time to transition over three years. In this cohort of adolescents and young adults who were 16 to 23 years of age at enrollment, 48% transitioned to adult care over three years of follow up. Nearly half reported not discussing transition with provider or seeing provider independently for part of visit. Older age but not other demographic variables nor baseline TRAQ score predicted transition or time to transition to an adult subspecialty provider; however, a there was a trend towards shorter time to transition with the highest quartile TRAQ scores.

  8. Thailand’s Work and Health Transition (United States)

    Kelly, Matthew; Strazdins, Lyndall; Dellora, Tarie; Khamman, Suwanee; Seubsman, Sam-ang; Sleigh, Adrian C


    Thailand has experienced a rapid economic transition from agriculture to industry and services, and from informal to formal employment. It has much less state regulation and worker representation relative to developed nations, who underwent these transitions more slowly and sequentially, decades earlier. We examine the strengthening of Thai government policy and legislation affecting worker’s health, responding to international norms, a new democratic constitution, fear of foreign importer embargos and several fatal workplace disasters. We identify key challenges remaining for Thai policy makers, including legislation enforcement and the measurement of impacts on worker’s mental and physical health. PMID:22318916

  9. Rapid automated nuclear chemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, R.A.


    Rapid Automated Nuclear Chemistry (RANC) can be thought of as the Z-separation of Neutron-rich Isotopes by Automated Methods. The range of RANC studies of fission and its products is large. In a sense, the studies can be categorized into various energy ranges from the highest where the fission process and particle emission are considered, to low energies where nuclear dynamics are being explored. This paper presents a table which gives examples of current research using RANC on fission and fission products. The remainder of this text is divided into three parts. The first contains a discussion of the chemical methods available for the fission product elements, the second describes the major techniques, and in the last section, examples of recent results are discussed as illustrations of the use of RANC

  10. JINR rapid communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The present collection of rapid communications from JINR, DUBNA, contains eight separate records on symmetry in modern physics (dedicated to the 100th anniversary of the birth of academician V.A.Fock), the double φ-meson production investigation on the Serpukhov accelerator, two-leptonic η-meson decays and SUSY without R parity, charge form factors and alpha-cluster internal structure of 12 C, increasing of muon-track reconstruction efficiency in ME1/1 Dubna prototype for the CMS/LHC, study of photon-structure function F 2 γ in the reaction e + e - → e + e - + hadrons at LEP2, jets reconstruction possibility in pAu and AuAu interactions at STAR RHIC and high-vacuum nondispersable gas absorber

  11. Rapid thermal pulse annealing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, M.G.; Koehn, B.W.; Chaplin, R.L.


    Characteristics of recovery processes have been investigated for cases of heating a sample to successively higher temperatures by means of isochronal annealing or by using a rapid pulse annealing. A recovery spectra shows the same features independent of which annealing procedure is used. In order to determine which technique provides the best resolution, a study was made of how two independent first-order processes are separated for different heating rates and time increments of the annealing pulses. It is shown that the pulse anneal method offers definite advantages over isochronal annealing when annealing for short time increments. Experimental data by means of the pulse anneal techniques are given for the various substages of stage I of aluminium. (author)

  12. JINR rapid communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The present collection of rapid communications from JINR, Dubna, contains seven separate reports on the identification of events with a secondary vertex in the experiment EXCHARM, the zero degree calorimeter for CERN WA-98 experiment, a new approach to increase the resource of installation elements for super-high energy physics, a method of the in-flight production of exotic systems in the charge-exchange reactions, the neutron activation analysis for monitoring northern terrestrial ecosystems, a search for 28 O and study of the neutron-rich nuclei near the neutron closure N=20, a search for new neutron-rich nuclei with a 70A MeV 48 Ca beam. 33 figs., 4 tabs

  13. JINR Rapid Communications. Collection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The present collection of rapid communications from JINR, Dubna, contains nine separate reports on quasi-classical description of one-nucleon transfer reactions with heavy ions, elastic and inelastic scattering in the high energy approximation, experimental study of fission and evaporation cross sections for 6 He + 209 Bi reaction, d ↑ + 12 C → p + X at Θ p = 0 o in the region of high internal momenta in the deuteron, the Nuclotron internal targets, actively screened superconducting magnets, using of polarized target in backward elastic dp scattering, application of transputers in the data acquisition system of the INESS-ALPHA spectrometer, narrow dibaryon resonances with isotopic spin I=2. 93 refs., 27 figs., 4 tabs

  14. JINR Rapid Communications. Collection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The present collection of rapid communications from JINR, Dubna, contains eight separate reports on Lorentz transformations with superluminal velocities, photo chromic effect in HTSC films, the investigation of hypernuclei in the Nuclotron accelerator, a new hadron jets finding algorithm in the four-dimensional velocity space, investigations of neutral particle production by relativistic nuclei on the LHE 90-channel γ-spectrometer (results and perspectives), coherent meson production in the dp → 3 HeX reaction, the relativistic projectile nuclei fragmentation and A-dependence of nucleon Fermi-momenta, energy spectra of γ-quanta from d-propane interactions at momentum P d = 1.25 GeV/c per nucleon. 86 refs., 26 figs., 4 tabs

  15. JINR rapid communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The present collection of rapid communications from JINR, Dubna, contains seven separate records on measurements of the total cross section difference Δσ L (np) at 1.59, 1.79, and 2.20 GeV, to the estimation of angular distributions of double charged spectator fragments in nucleus-nucleus interactions at superhigh energies, simulation dE/dx analysis results for silicon inner tracking system of ALICE set-up at LHC accelerator, high-multiplicity processes, triggering of high-multiplicity events using calorimetry, ORBIT-3.0 - a computer code for simulation and correction of the closed orbit and first turn in synchrotrons and determination of memory performance

  16. JINR rapid communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The present collection of rapid communications from JINR, Dubna, contains seven separate records on yields of the rare-earth neutron-deficient isotopes in the reactions of Mo isotopes with 40 Ca ions, observations of slow components of solitonic-type wave structure excited by e-beam in massive copper sample, development and investigation of low-mass multilayer drift chambers (MDC-2) for inner part of the HADES spectrometer, temperature measurement of the uranium sample irradiated with secondary neutrons, edge effects in multiwire proportional chambers, the influence of the dielectric frame, an object-oriented framework for the hadronic Monte-Carlo event generators and uranium-238 as a source for electronuclear power production. 32 figs., 3 tabs

  17. JINR rapid communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The present collection of rapid communications from JINR, Dubna, contains nine separate reports on collective energy dissipation and fluctuations in elastoplastic systems, diagnostics system of the circulating beam of the NUCLOTRON based on microchannel plates, time-of-flight detector for WA98 CERN experiment, fractal structure formation on the surfaces of solids subjected to high intensity electron and ion treatment, production of nuclei in 32,34,36 S-induced reactions in the energy range 6-75 MeV/A, rare-earth elements in soil and pine needle from northern terrestrial ecosystems, 'thermal' multifragmentation in p + Au collisions at relativistic energies, search for effects of the OZI rule violation in φ and ω mesons production in polarized deuteron beam interaction with polarized proton target (project DPHE3) and fast detector for triggering on charged particle multiplicity for relativistic nucleus-nucleus collisions

  18. JINR rapid communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The present collection of rapid communications from JINR, Dubna, contains seven separate reports on observation of transversal handedness in the diffractive production of pion triples, a possible experiment on the research of dibaryon states, Cherenkov beam counter system of the CERES/NA45 spectrometer for investigation with 160 GeV/n. lead ions, a profile-based gaseous detector with capacitive pad readout as the prototype of the shower maximum detector for the end-cap electromagnetic calorimeter for the STAR experiment, what DELPHI can get with an upgraded position for the very small angle tagger, estimation of the radiation environment and the shielding aspect for the point 2 area of the LHC and the orthopositronium decay puzzle

  19. Rapid chemical separations

    CERN Document Server

    Trautmann, N


    A survey is given on the progress of fast chemical separation procedures during the last few years. Fast, discontinuous separation techniques are illustrated by a procedure for niobium. The use of such techniques for the chemical characterization of the heaviest known elements is described. Other rapid separation methods from aqueous solutions are summarized. The application of the high speed liquid chromatography to the separation of chemically similar elements is outlined. The use of the gas jet recoil transport method for nuclear reaction products and its combination with a continuous solvent extraction technique and with a thermochromatographic separation is presented. Different separation methods in the gas phase are briefly discussed and the attachment of a thermochromatographic technique to an on-line mass separator is shown. (45 refs).

  20. JINR rapid communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The present collection of rapid communications from JINR, Dubna, contains seven separate reports on investigation of the tensor analyzing power A yy in the reaction A(d polarized, p)X at large transverse momenta of proton, double-differential ionization cross section calculations for fast collisions of ions and atoms, a study of the two-photon interactions tagged at an average 2 > of 90 GeV 2 , cluster and single-particle distributions in nucleus-nucleus interactions, the Coulomb interaction of charged pions in CC-and CTa-collisions at 4.2 A GeV/c, influence of nitrogen and oxygen gas admixtures on the response of the DELPHI HCAL and MUS detectors and an automation of physics research on base of open standards