WorldWideScience

Sample records for rapid demographic transition

  1. [Peruvian demographic transition].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carbajal Chirinos, C

    1988-06-01

    The demographic transition is conceptualized as the historic change from high to low fertility and mortality rates in a population. Peru's population was reduced by an estimated 80% as a result of new diseases, destruction of the economy, and the brutal regime of colonial exploitation after the Spanish conquest. From colonial times to the least the 1940s, Peru's principal population problem was the scarcity of manpower. The population grew at an annual rate of about .03% between 1650 and 1800, increasing to about 1.3% between 1876 and 1940. High fertility throughout the 19th century and a stabilization of mortality due to reduced incidence and deadliness of epidemics contributed to the increased growth rate. In the 1940s the process of demographic transition was initiated by abrupt declines in mortality. The crude death rate declined from 27/1000 in 1940 to 16/1000 in 1961 and 9/1000 in 1988, with the rate still declining. Fertility remained high and possibly increased slightly. The crude birth rate was estimated at 45/1000 in 1940 and 45.4/1000 in 1961. Improvements in infant and general mortality rates in developing countries like Peru result from diffusion of technological advances in prevention and control of diseases and improvement in health services rather than from changes in the economic and social structure. The 3rd phase of the demographic transition began with declines in fertility from 45.4/1000 in 1961 to 42.0/1000 in 1972 and 36.0/1000 in 1981. Despite declines, mortality and fertility continue to be elevated in Peru. The theory of demographic transition views the reduction of infant mortality, improvements in health and educational conditions and the condition of women, and more equitable income distribution as essential for a true decline in birth rates. In Peru, however, fertility has declined in a context of deteriorating living conditions and in the absence of effective family planning programs. The process of demographic transition must be

  2. Rapid transitions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamrin, J.G.

    1980-01-01

    Solar energy programs are entering a critical transitional period as we move from the initial marketing of solar technologies into a phase of widespread commercialization. We face the dual challenge of trying to get enough solar systems in place fast enough to prove solar is a viable alternative, while trying to ensure the systems are designed and installed properly, proving the energy savings as promised. This is a period of both great opportunity and high risk as the field becomes crowded with new solar cheerleaders and supporters but seldom enough competent players. The status of existing and proposed programs for the accelerated commercialization of solar energy in California is described.

  3. Demographic transitions in Europe and the world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willekens, Frans

    The demographic transition is a universal phenomenon. All regions of the world experience a change from high levels of mortality and fertility to low levels. The onset and pace of the demographic transition vary between regions and countries because of differences in timing of events and conditions

  4. Effect of Attitudinal, Situational and Demographic Factors on Annoyance Due to Environmental Vibration and Noise from Construction of a Light Rapid Transit System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong-McSweeney, Daniel; Woodcock, James; Waddington, David; Peris, Eulalia; Koziel, Zbigniew; Moorhouse, Andy; Redel-Macías, María Dolores

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to determine what non-exposure factors influence the relationship between vibration and noise exposure from the construction of a Light Rapid Transit (LRT) system and the annoyance of nearby residents. Noise and vibration from construction sites are known to annoy residents, with annoyance increasing as a function of the magnitude of the vibration and noise. There is not a strong correlation between exposure and levels of annoyance suggesting that factors not directly related to the exposure may have an influence. A range of attitudinal, situational and demographic factors are investigated with the aim of understanding the wide variation in annoyance for a given vibration exposure. A face-to-face survey of residents (n = 350) near three sites of LRT construction was conducted, and responses were compared to semi-empirical estimates of the internal vibration within the buildings. It was found that annoyance responses due to vibration were strongly influenced by two attitudinal variables, concern about property damage and sensitivity to vibration. Age, ownership of the property and the visibility of the construction site were also important factors. Gender, time at home and expectation of future levels of vibration had much less influence. Due to the measurement methods used, it was not possible to separate out the effects of noise and vibration on annoyance; as such, this paper focusses on annoyance due to vibration exposure. This work concludes that for the most cost-effective reduction of the impact of construction vibration and noise on the annoyance felt by a community, policies should consider attitudinal factors. PMID:27983662

  5. Understanding the Demographic and Health Transition in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The shift from high to low levels of mortality and fertility called the demographic transition occurred over a century ago in the developed world. While the reasons for the transition in Western Europe and North America are well documented, little is known about the transition in developing countries except that it is reported to ...

  6. Demographic transitions in Europe and the world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willekens, F.J.; Matthijs, K.; Neels, K.; Timmerman, C.; Haers, J.; Mels, S.

    2016-01-01

    Willekens, F. (2015) Demographic transitions in Europe and the world. In: K. Matthijs, K. Neels, C. Timmerman. J. Haers and S. Mels eds. Population change at work in Europe, the Middle-East and North Africa. Beyond the demographic divide. Ashgate (International Population Studies Series) pp. 13-44.

  7. Tiber Personal Rapid Transit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Carlo D'agostino

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The project “Tiber Personal Rapid Transit” have been presented by the author at the Rome City Vision Competition1 2010, an ideas competition, which challenges architects, engineers, designers, students and creatives individuals to develop visionary urban proposals with the intention of stimulating and supporting the contemporary city, in this case Rome. The Tiber PRT proposal tries to answer the competition questions with the definition of a provocative idea: a Personal Rapid transit System on the Tiber river banks. The project is located in the central section of the Tiber river and aims at the renewal of the river banks with the insertion of a Personal Rapid Transit infrastructure. The project area include the riverbank of Tiber from Rome Transtevere RFI station to Piazza del Popolo, an area where main touristic and leisure attractions are located. The intervention area is actually no used by the city users and residents and constitute itself a strong barrier in the heart of the historic city.

  8. The Demographic Transition: Causes and Consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galor, Oded

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops the theoretical foundations and the testable implications of the various mechanisms that have been proposed as possible triggers for the demographic transition. Moreover, it examines the empirical validity of each of the theories and their significance for the understanding of the transition from stagnation to growth. The analysis suggests that the rise in the demand for human capital in the process of development was the main trigger for the decline in fertility and the transition to modern growth.

  9. [The demographic transition in Latin America and Europe].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavala De Cosio, M E

    1992-12-01

    in Latin America because of the much more rapid mortality decline. In Latin America, in the face of the fertility increase of the mid-20th century, there was no attempt to control nuptiality, as in traditional European populations, to limit family size. Nuptiality control as a mechanism of demographic regulation was never socially acceptable in Latin America. The beginning of the Latin American transition occurred in urban areas, among more educated women who were over 20 years old at marriage. The fertility transition in these privileged sectors was quite similar to that in Europe. But a second transition has occurred among impoverished women conserving traditional reproductive patterns of early marriage and numerous closely spaced births. Availability of modern contraception among rural and marginal urban women has allowed termination of childbearing, but usually at relatively high levels of fertility. Fertility decline, in this case, does not reflect improvements in living conditions.

  10. THE PROCESS AND EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN PENANG, MALAYSIA

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Usman Haji Yaakob; Nik Norliati Fitri Md Nor

    2013-01-01

      This article describes the demographic transition in Penang, Malaysia based on the demographic transition theory, which explains the decline of birth and death rates in European countries during the 18th century...

  11. Risk society and the second demographic transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David R. Hall

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available Prominent “risk society” theorists such as Giddens and Beck have identified risk as a fundamental organizing principle of contemporary society. Importantly, a major cause of risk awareness and anxiety in modern society is individualism . . a concept Lesthaeghe linked to changes in family formation. In this regard, of the types of risk discussed in the sociological literature, “interpersonal risks” associated with cohabitation, marriage, and parenting are of obvious salience. This paper explores how the modern “risk society” thesis, and the concept of interpersonal risk could materially contribute to understanding the second demographic transition.

  12. Correlates of intimate partner violence against women during a time of rapid social transition in Rwanda: analysis of the 2005 and 2010 demographic and health surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Dana R; Bah, Assiatou B; Rubanzana, Wilson G; Mutesa, Leon

    2015-10-28

    In Rwanda, women who self-reported in household surveys ever experiencing intimate partner violence (IPV) increased from 34 % in 2005 to 56 % in 2010. This coincided with a new constitution and majority-female elected parliament in 2003, and 2008 legislation protecting against gender-based violence. The increase in self-reported IPV may reflect improved social power for women, and/or disruptions to traditional gender roles that increased actual IPV. This is a cross-sectional study of IPV in 4338 couples interviewed in the 2005 and 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Surveys (RDHSs). Factors associated with physical or sexual IPV in the last 12 months were modeled using manual backward stepwise logistic regression. Analyses were conducted in Stata v13 adjusting for complex survey design. Risk factors for IPV in 2005 (p violence victims, is currently scaling to all 44 district hospitals, and police station gender desks reduce barriers to legal reporting of IPV. Additional support to Abunzi mediators to hear IPV cases in communities, and involvement of men in grassroots efforts to redefine masculinity in Rwanda are suggested. Additional research is needed to understand why self-reported IPV has increased in Rwanda, and to evaluate effectiveness of IPV interventions.

  13. Revolution without ideology: demographic transition in East Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, T D

    1980-01-01

    The acceleration of demographic transition in East Asia is a process of great potential import for the world. The most rapid and large scale transformation of demographic pattern in world history is being accomplished in this region. Demographic processes in other countries and regions have been viewed in the light of past events. Demographic transition has been accepted as a desirable goal, but its realization was believed subject to certain constraints. These include the need to attain high rates of economic growth in order to stimulate the transition and the longer period of time required to accomplish the transition. It was assumed that at least 2 generations would be subject to gradually diminishing rates of increase and slow cultural modification before transition entered its last phase. This interpretation of the preconditions and specific character of demographic transition has been subject to increasing challenge, and recent events in East Asia accentuate such doubts. Most new views begin with the premises that contemporary pretransition societies are not European in culture and the 1970s are not the 1880s. East Asia also differs culturally from other developing areas, including South and Southeast Asia. The most significant regional features are cultural. Demographic transition in the region began after World War 2 and somewhat differently in each East Asian country. The process began first in Japan. The 3rd phase was accomplished rapidly but not as a specific consequence of the modernization process. The end of World War 2 and the spurt in births accompanying military demobilization contributed to a population surge. The cultural factors of practicality, homogeneity, social discipline, and nearly universial literacy were decisive here. Abortion was legalized in 1948 and other forms of birth control were made readily available. Between 1947 and 1957 the birthrate was halved to 17/1000. In Taiwan and South Korea public concern about high rates of

  14. Risk society and the second demographic transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hall, David R.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available EnglishProminent "risk society" theorists such as Giddens and Beck have identifiedrisk as a fundamental organizing principle of contemporary society. Importantly, a major cause of riskawareness and anxiety in modern society is individualism . . a concept Lesthaeghe linked to changes infamily formation. In this regard, of the types of risk discussed in the sociological literature,"interpersonal risks" associated with cohabitation, marriage, and parenting are of obvious salience.This paper explores how the modern "risk society" thesis, and the concept of interpersonal risk couldmaterially contribute to understanding the second demographic transition.FrenchDes theorists connu tells que Giddens et Beck qui promeuvent "la société de risqué" ont identifié le risqué comme un principe fundamental de l'organisation de la société contemporaine. De l'importance est que l'individualisme, … un concept que Lesthaeghe a relié aux changements dans la formation de la famille, est une cause majeuire de la reconnaissance du risqué et de l'anxiété dans la société moderne. En ce qui concerne le risqué, de tous les genres de risqué discutés dans la literature sociologique, les risques "interpersonnels" associés à la cohabitation, le marriage et l'élevement des enfants sont plus communs. Ce papier examine la possibilité que l'idée d'une "société de risqué" moderne, et le concept du risqué interpersonnel pourraient contribuer à la comprehension de la deuxiéme transition démographique.

  15. Moved by a Rapid Transit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bueter, C.

    2013-04-01

    Enticing by virtue of its predictability, historical utility, and spectacle, the transit of Venus is a niche event among astronomical phenomena. Though the value of a transit for scientific purposes is now diminished, the brief appearance of Venus silhouetted against the background of the Sun in 2004 moved the artistic community to celebrate the rare alignment. Artists of all ages combined old traditions with fresh technology to create a 21st-century tapestry of music, sculpture, paintings, glasswork, quilts, sky shows, and digital imagery. A full catalog of transit-related art generated over the centuries would feature the sampling of entries presented here and at the Moved by a Rapid Transit website.

  16. Human population growth and the demographic transition

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    John Bongaarts

    2009-01-01

    .... Projections for the next half century expect a highly divergent world, with stagnation or potential decline in parts of the developed world and continued rapid growth in the least developed regions...

  17. Russian Federation : From the first to second demographic transition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zakharov, Sergei

    2008-01-01

    The demographic transition in Russia was accelerated by several social cataclysms during the "Soviet type" modernization. Frequent changes in the timing of births and marriages engendered a mass "abortion culture". Contraceptive devices of poor quality were produced on a limited scale. The Soviet

  18. The Second Demographic Transition in Israel: One for All?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evgenia Bystrov

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This article explores family behaviours and attitudes in Israel over the last decades through the lens of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT. Israel is divided by religious affiliation, the level of religiosity, ethnic origin and timing of immigration. Although fertility transition to replacement level among certain societal groups has been previously shown, the question of how the transition unfolds in other domains remains open. The goal of this paper is to highlight the diversity of marital and fertility transitions and non-transitions among various groups of this heterogeneous society, and to compare Israel's transitions to European ones. The data sources which are used are cross-national large scale surveys, national representative surveys, and Population Register data. The data were disaggregated by religion, religiousness and ethnic origin. Emancipative value change, postponement of marriage, alternative living arrangements and a growing variety of fertility regimes were analyzed. A full range of pre-transitional, transitional, and post-transitional elements was found among the groups. Such sign of the SDT as growing childlessness was not found, and the spread of other features as unmarried cohabitation and non-marital childbearing was found limited. Population composition effects were isolated. It was found that the level of religiosity and the country of origin are important factors which differentiate family behaviours and attitudes. The connection between value orientation of the groups within Israel and their family behaviours is discussed. The socio-structural and institutional constraints that might impede further progression of the Second Demographic Transition in Israel are also discussed. Further research directions are suggested.

  19. Demographic model of the Neolithic transition in Central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrik Galeta

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Several recent lines of evidence indicate more intensive contact between LBK farmers and indigenous foragers in Central Europe (5600–5400 calBC. Strong continuity has been identified between Mesolithic and Neolithic material cultures; faunal assemblages, and isotopic analyses of diet have revealed a greater role of hunting in LBK communities; genetic analyses have suggested that the modern Central European gene pool is mainly of Palaeolithic origin. Surprisingly little attention has been paid to demographic aspects of the Neolithic transition. In our study, demographic simulations were performed to assess the demographic conditions that would allow LBK farmers to spread across central Europe without any admixture with Mesolithic foragers. We constructed a stochastic demographic model of changes in farming population size. Model parameters were constrained by data from human demography, archaeology, and human ecology. Our results indicate that the establishment of farming communities in Central Europe without an admixture with foragers was highly improbable. The demographic conditions necessary for colonization were beyond the potential of the Neolithic population. Our study supports the integrationists’ view of the Neolithic transition in Central Europe.

  20. Which transition comes first? Urban and demographic transitions in Belgium and Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Bocquier

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Several theories compete to explain the main drivers of urbanisation, past and present, in relation to both demographic transition and economic development. One hypothesis is that rural-to-urban migration is the driver of urbanisation; another is that urban mortality decline actually triggered urban transition. Objective: This paper reconsiders the relationship between demographic (vital migration and urban transitions by analysing the long-term contribution of natural and migratory movements to urban transition. The respective contributions of birth, death, and migration and their timing will indicate whether economic development, through labour force migration, or vital transition mainly determines urban transition. Methods: After examining the spatial dimension of the demographic transition theory, we use 19th and 20th century series on Sweden and Belgium to better identify the migration component of urban transition through the computation of growth difference between urban and rural areas, accounting for the often neglected reclassification effect. Results: In both Sweden and Belgium, migration is the direct or indirect (through reclassification engine of urban transition and its contribution precedes the onset of vital transition, while the vital transition has a secondary, unstable, and negative role in the urban transition. Conclusions: Changes in the economic sphere are reinstated as the underlying cause of population change, acting through the shift of human capital in space. Methodological consequences are then drawn for analysing vital and urban transitions in an increasingly interdependent world. Contribution: The paper contributes to the theoretical literature on urban and demographic transitions in relation to economic development. The proposed method evaluates migration contribution without having to measure it.

  1. Russian Federation: From the first to second demographic transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei Zakharov

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The demographic transition in Russia was accelerated by several social cataclysms during the "Soviet type" modernization. Frequent changes in the timing of births and marriages engendered a mass "abortion culture". Contraceptive devices of poor quality were produced on a limited scale. The Soviet regime promulgated pronatalism and considered contraception to contradict this ideology. There have been two waves of government policy interventions. In the 1930s and 1940s restrictive and propaganda measures prevailed. These failed to yield serious effects. In the 1980s, policies aimed at lessening the tension between full-time employment and maternal roles. These generated shifts in birth timing, namely shorter birth intervals and earlier second and third births, however increase in completed cohort fertility was minimal. A third wave started in 2007. Preoccupied with continuous depopulation, authorities intend to boost births by substantially increasing benefits. The mid-1990s was a turning point in the change of fertility and nuptiality models. The 1970s birth cohorts marry and become parents later. They delay first and second births and increasingly begin partnerships with cohabitation. Contraception is replacing abortion. New attitudes and perceptions about family, partnership, childbearing, and family planning are emerging. A major transformation typical for developed countries, the Second Demographic Transition, is underway. Nevertheless, many neo-traditional features of fertility and nuptiality remain. These distinguish Russia from most European countries and will persist in the near future. Completed fertility, however, hardly differs from the average European level.

  2. Secular trends are associated with the demographic and epidemiologic transitions in an indigenous community in Oaxaca, Southern Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malina, Robert M; Little, Bertis B; Peña Reyes, Maria Eugenia

    2018-01-01

    To test the hypothesis that secular changes in body size and age at menarche are related to the demographic and epidemiologic transitions in an indigenous community in Oaxaca, southern Mexico. Data were derived from surveys of a Zapotec-speaking community conducted between 1968 and 2000. Segmented linear regressions of height, weight, BMI and recalled age at menarche on year of birth in cohorts of adults born before and after the demographic transition were used to evaluate secular changes. Corresponding comparisons of body size (MANCOVA controlling for age) and age at menarche (status quo, probit analysis) were done for samples of children and adolescents born before and after the epidemiological transition. Height and weight increased in adults born after the demographic transition (mid-1950s), and especially in children and adolescents born after the epidemiological transition (mid-1980s). Age at menarche also decreased significantly in women born after the demographic transition, but at a more rapid estimated rate in adolescents born after the epidemiological transition. Secular gains in body weight were proportional to those for height among children and adolescents, but adults, males more so than females, gained proportionally more weight. The secular trend in height in adults of both sexes was associated with the decade of the demographic transition in the mid-1950s. Significant secular gains in size attained and age at menarche occurred in children and youth born after the epidemiologic transition which likely reflected improved health and nutritional conditions since the mid-1980s. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. [Demographic transformation in the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy: early fertility decline and the theory of the "demographic transition"].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demeny, P

    1986-01-01

    "The author attempts to expose and explain important elements of the demographic transition in the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy in the last third of the nineteenth century. This is done on the basis of regional differences and time differences of the Coale-Indices (Index of marital fertility, Index of proportion married and Index of overall fertility)." The author considers the differences between marital fertility in rural Hungary and in industrial Austria at the beginning of the demographic transition (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

  4. Morphological Transition in Rapidly Expanding Magmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolinski, J.; Chakraborty, P.; Gioia, G.; Kieffer, S. W.

    2008-12-01

    Many explosive eruptions are initiated by rapid decompression of bubbly magma, which behaves as an elastic material during the decompression and fragments into discrete pieces following the decompression. To emulate the rapid decompression of bubbly magma, we subject a two-dimensional foam of soap bubbles to quasi-static expansion. A recent theory predicts that where a two-dimensional foam of soap bubbles is first subjected to expansion, the foam expands homogeneously. After a critical value of expansion is attained, the foam undergoes a morphological transition and separates into a large number of small bubbles immersed in a background of a few large bubbles [Vainchtein and Aref, Physics of Fluids 13, 2001]. In our experiments we verify the phenomenon of morphological transition under area expansion. We verity the predictions of Vainchtein and Aref, compare our results with the experimental results on rapidly expanding bubble-bearing viscoelastic fluids reported by [Namiki and Manga, Earth and Planetary Science Letters 236, 2005], and discuss the implications of our results for the rapid decompression of magmas.

  5. Demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions: are they relevant to population health patterns in Africa?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barthélémy Kuate Defo

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Studies of trends in population changes and epidemiological profiles in the developing world have overwhelmingly relied upon the concepts of demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions, even though their usefulness in describing and understanding population and health trends in developing countries has been repeatedly called into question. The issue is particularly relevant for the study of population health patterns in Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, as the history and experience there differs substantially from that of Western Europe and North America, for which these concepts were originally developed. Objective: The aim of this study is two-fold: to review and clarify any distinction between the concepts of demographic transition, epidemiological transition and health transition and to identify summary indicators of population health to test how well these concepts apply in Africa. Results: Notwithstanding the characteristically diverse African context, Africa is a continent of uncertainties and emergencies where discontinuities and interruptions of health, disease, and mortality trends reflect the enduring fragility and instability of countries and the vulnerabilities of individuals and populations in the continent. Africa as a whole remains the furthest behind the world's regions in terms of health improvements and longevity, as do its sub-Saharan African regions and societies specifically. This study documents: 1 theoretically and empirically the similarities and differences between the demographic transition, epidemiological transition, and health transition; 2 simple summary indicators that can be used to evaluate their descriptive and predictive features; 3 marked disparities in the onset and pace of variations and divergent trends in health, disease, and mortality patterns as well as fertility and life expectancy trajectories among African countries and regions over the past 60 years; 4 the rapid decline in infant

  6. Population growth and the demographic transition in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wortham, R A

    1993-06-01

    Population growth is traced in Kenya for the periods 1895 to 1948 and 1948 to 1992. Analysis of Kenya's recent fertility patterns is based on the processes in demographic transition and on studies by Petersen, Caldwell, and Chenais. The transition stages are identified as follows: the predevelopment stage during 1895-1921, the underdeveloped stage during 1921-77, the stabilization of the high rate of natural population increase during 1977-90, and the entrance into the transition or developing stage from the 1980s to the present. The expectation is that the transition will continue to 2010. A complete transition by 2025 requires an annual population growth rate of 1%. Fertility patterns during 1977-89 revealed a reduction in the total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.2 children. The TFR in 1989 among currently married women aged 15-49 years with no formal education was 7.2 children. Women with secondary education had a TFR of 4.9 children. Urban women had a TFR of 4.8 children, while rural women had a TFR of 7.1 children. The ideal family size in 1989 was 4.4 children, which is a decline of 1.4 children from 1984. Ideal family size among currently married women aged 20-24 years was 3.9. Structural changes occurred since 1967, whereby annual economic growth rates exceeded population growth rates. High fertility levels are supported by the traditional role of women in satisfying subsistence needs, and the use of children for farm labor, social security, and access to the land. Family structural changes (an increased number of households headed by females) may lead to lower fertility because of the high costs of child rearing. The declines among urban polygamous marriages and women with no formal education may not reduce fertility. Decreased rotation of intercourse among polygynous women could mean increases in fertility. Monogamous unions tend to have higher fertility than polygamous unions. Marriage may have a lesser impact on fertility regulation, if marriage age and the

  7. Non-marital pregnancy and the second demographic transition in Australia in historical perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordon Carmichael

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Australia has remarkably detailed data on non-marital pregnancy dating from 1908. They both offer insight into long-term trends in childbearing resulting from non-marital sexual activity and reveal in historical context key features of the second demographic transition and its genesis. Objective: Trends are traced in rates of non-marital conception of children ultimately born both outside and within marriage. A range of related indices is also presented in examining how demographic behaviour surrounding non-marital pregnancy (i helped generate the second demographic transition and (ii unfolded as a component of it. Methods: Core indices are rates of non-marital conception partitioned into additive components associated with marital and non-marital confinement. Data on non-marital and early marital births (at marriage durations 0-7 months are lagged back 38 weeks to a date of and age at conception basis to facilitate a common, unmarried, population at risk. Results: Post-war weakening of parental oversight of courtship was a fundamental trigger to the broader rejection of normative and institutional values that underpinned the second demographic transition. In tandem with denying the unmarried access to oral contraception it generated rampant youthful non-marital pregnancy, which undermined Judeo-Christian values, especially once abortion law reform occurred. Conclusions: Childbearing following non-marital conception transitioned rapidly after the 1960s from primarily the unintended product of youthful intercourse in non-coresidential relationships to mainly intended behaviour at normative reproductive ages in consensual unions. Family formation increasingly mixed non-marital births and premaritally and/or maritally conceived marital births.

  8. Simulation Model of Bus Rapid Transit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunawan Fergyanto E.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Bus rapid transit system is modern solution for mass transportation system. The system, in comparison to the rail-based transportation system, is significantly cheaper and requires shorter development time, but lower performance. The BRT system performance strongly depends on variables related to station design and infrastructure. A numerical model offers an effective and efficient means to evaluate the system performance. This article offers a detailed numerical model on the basis of the discrete-event approach and demonstrates its application.

  9. Synchronous Routing for Personal Rapid Transit Pods

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    Mehdi Mrad

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Personal rapid transit (PRT is a public and automated transport system in which a fleet of small driverless vehicles operate in order to transport passengers between a set of stations through a network of guided ways. Each customer is carried from one station to another directly with no stop in intermediate stations. This mode of transport can result in a high level of unused capacity due to the empty moves of the vehicles. In this paper, we model the problem of minimizing the energy consumed by the PRT system while assuming predeterministic list of orders; then we solve it using some constructive heuristics. Experiments are run on 1320 randomly generated test problems with various sizes. Our algorithms are shown to give good results over large trip instances.

  10. Rapid, global demographic expansions after the origins of agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gignoux, Christopher R; Henn, Brenna M; Mountain, Joanna L

    2011-04-12

    The invention of agriculture is widely assumed to have driven recent human population growth. However, direct genetic evidence for population growth after independent agricultural origins has been elusive. We estimated population sizes through time from a set of globally distributed whole mitochondrial genomes, after separating lineages associated with agricultural populations from those associated with hunter-gatherers. The coalescent-based analysis revealed strong evidence for distinct demographic expansions in Europe, southeastern Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa within the past 10,000 y. Estimates of the timing of population growth based on genetic data correspond neatly to dates for the initial origins of agriculture derived from archaeological evidence. Comparisons of rates of population growth through time reveal that the invention of agriculture facilitated a fivefold increase in population growth relative to more ancient expansions of hunter-gatherers.

  11. Population Ageing and the Theory of Demographic Transition: The ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This has inevitably brought about the problem of ageing. The main objectives of the study are firstly to throw light on the demographic processes that have brought about changes in the age structure of the population thereby making ageing an inevitable outcome and secondly to take stock of the demographic profiles: ...

  12. Spatial continuities and discontinuities in two successive demographic transitions: Spain and Belgium, 1880-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ron Lesthaeghe

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This is a study of how the synergisms between cultural and structural factors, which played a major role during the historical fertility and nuptiality transition (first demographic transition or FDT, have continued to condition demographic innovations connected to the "second demographic transition" (SDT. The continuity or discontinuity from the "first" to the "second" demographic transition is studied for spatial aggregates over more than a century in two national contexts, i.e., Belgium and Spain. Special attention is paid to the role of successive secularization waves in shaping the geographical patterns of both transitions. The study also shows that the maps of the two aspects of the SDT, i.e., the "postponement" and the "non-conformism" transitions respectively, are shaped by different determinants. Explanations are offered using the "Ready, Willing, and Able" paradigm, which allows us to uncover the different conditioning and limiting factors involved. The "non-conformist" transitions (control of marital fertility during the FDT and rise of cohabitation and non-conventional family formation during the SDT more closely mirror the history of secularization and the "Willingness" condition, whereas the fertility postponement aspect of the SDT mainly reflects female education and employment, or the "Readiness" condition. This generalization holds in both countries. However, in Belgium spatial continuity from FDT to SDT is connected to stable patterns of secularization, whereas in Spain it is linked to long standing differences with respect to female literacy and education.

  13. The second demographic transition and the development level of Colombia departments, 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel C. Grajales A

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to analyze the behavior of some demographic characteristics for each department to identify the state of demographic transition and its relationship to the development level. Methodology: descriptive study based on secondary information sources published by the National Statistics Department and the National Planning Department. Results: the global fertility rate of the country was 2.5 in 2005. Chocó reported the highest rate whereas Bogotá reported the lowest. A total of 67% of Colombian states registered higher rates than the average rate in the country. Mortality rate of children in the country was 24.5, with the lowest rates registered in El Valle, Caldas, and Bogotá. The highest rates were registered in Arauca and Chocó. 26.6% of Colombian states show some advance in the demographic transition process. By contrast, 67% of the states are classified as lagged behind. There is a relation between the demographic transition index and the development indicators. Conclusion: Although some departments reach an advanced level of demographic transition, most of them still show high rates of infant mortality or fecundity which keep them behind in this process. Inequalities in living conditions of the country’s departments could be influencing the behavior of the demographic components analyzed.

  14. How do demographic transitions and public health policies affect patients with Parkinson's disease in Brazil?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bovolenta, Tânia M; Felicio, Andre C

    2017-01-01

    Brazil is currently experiencing a significant demographic transition characterized by a decrease in fertility rates and an exponential increase in the number of elderly citizens, which presents a special challenge for the health care professionals. More than other portions of the population, the elderly are most commonly affected by chronic diseases such as Parkinson's disease. Policymakers contend that Brazil is reasonably well-prepared regarding elderly health care, with policies that aim to ensure the quality of life and the well-being of this portion of the population. However, what happens in practice falls short of what the Brazilian Constitution sets forth. Specifically, there is a clear contradiction between what the law recognizes as being a citizen's rights and the implementation of guidelines. Because health financing in Brazil remains relatively low, the civil society tries to fill in the gaps as much as possible in the treatment of elderly patients suffering from chronic diseases such as Parkinson's disease. In this review, we outline the current legislation in Brazil regarding the elderly and in particular, patients with Parkinson's disease, in the context of a rapidly aging population.

  15. A Class Exercise Illustrating the Implications of the Demographic Transition in Middle and South America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulvihill, James L.

    A project is described which can be used in geography classes on the college level to help students understand modernization in Latin America. The project is based on a demographic transition model--a model which demonstrates changes in birth and death rates as societies become increasingly industrialized and urbanized, and which also helps to…

  16. Socioeconomic status and fertility before, during, and after the demographic transition: An introduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Dribe

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Despite a long interest in the historical fertility transition, there is still a lack of knowledge about disaggregated patterns that could help us understand the mechanisms behind the transition. In previous research the widely held view is that there was a change in the association between social status and fertility in conjunction with the fertility transition, implying that fertility went from being positively connected to social status (higher status was connected with higher fertility to being negatively associated with fertility. Objective: The aim of this collection is to study socioeconomic patterns in the fertility transition in a variety of contexts using similar approaches and measures of socioeconomic status. Methods: All contributions use different kinds of micro-level socioeconomic and demographic data and statistical models in the analysis. Data either come from census-like records or population registers. Conclusions: There is no consistent evidence for the hypothesis that socioeconomic status was positively related to fertility before the demographic transition. While such a correlation was clearly present in some contexts it was clearly not in other contexts. There is more unanimous support for the idea that the upper-and middle classes acted as forerunners in the transition, while especially farmers were late to change their fertility behavior. It is also evident that both parity-specific stopping and prolonged birth intervals (spacing were important in the fertility transition.

  17. Optimalisasi Kelembagaan Dan Manajemen Dalam Bus Rapid Transit Semarang

    OpenAIRE

    Ghoni, Ahmad; Yuniar, Haptiwi Tri; Riyanto, Bambang; Supriyono, Supriyono

    2013-01-01

    Bus Rapid Transit Trans Semarang is a means of mass transportation to the transit system that began operating since 2009 as a solution to reduce congestion in the city of Semarang. This research focuses on the optimization and management of institutional BRT Trans Semarang to improve it's performance. The purpose of this study is to optimize the performance of the organization and management of BRT Trans Semarang with variable types of institutional cooperation BRT operations, and leadership...

  18. Rapid Communication: v= 2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Pramana – Journal of Physics; Volume 89; Issue 5. Rapid Communication: Δ υ = 2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3 − states and B ( E 3 ) systematics of Sn isotopes. BHOOMIKA MAHESHWARI SWATI GARG ASHOK KUMAR JAIN. Research Article Volume 89 Issue 5 November 2017 Article ID 75 ...

  19. Rapid Communication: seniority changing transitions in yrast states ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Bhoomika Maheshwari

    2017-10-26

    Oct 26, 2017 ... Rapid Communication: v = 2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3− states and B(E3) systematics of Sn isotopes. BHOOMIKA MAHESHWARI1,∗. , SWATI GARG2 and ASHOK KUMAR JAIN2. 1Department of Physics, Banasthali University, Banasthali 304 022, India. 2Department of Physics, IIT Roorkee, ...

  20. Demographic transition and population ageing in India: Implications on the elderly of the future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shradha Mathur

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Ageing population of India will transform into the elderly in future. The issue of health of the elderly population in India has arrested the attention of health policy makers and the researchers, in the recent past. Demographic structure, quality of life, healthcare services and government planning have serious implications on the ageing population. The objective of the research article is to systematically and critically evaluate the impact of demographic transition, projected demographic indicators and changing population characteristics on the health status of the elderly persons living in India in the coming decades. Analysis and discussions are based on secondary data published by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare of the Government of India. The results indicate that India will be an ageing nation in the coming years and improvements in health, education and government planning are likely to enhance the life expectancy of the elderly, while the share of children will reduce, suggesting an increase in dependency of the older persons on the adult population. The article provides insights into workable solutions and suggests key recommendations to attain faster demographic dividend. India would be competing with the pressure of a dramatic demographic bulge in future.

  1. Demographic transition theory: a neglected aspect of the nomadism-sedentarism continuum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meir, A

    1986-01-01

    This paper proposes an adaptation of demographic transition theory to the nomadism-sedentarism continuum. It is argued that a change along this continuum implies a change in the mode of production, which in turn entails changes in fertility and mortality. The following hypotheses are set forth: 1) at the pastoral phase of a nomadic society, fertility is relatively low and mortality is relatively high, yielding a low rate of natural increase; 2) as a pastoral nomadic society senentarizes, fertility begins to rise and mortality falls, resulting in a sharp rise in natural increase, but as sedentarization becomes more advanced, both these trends slow down somewhat; 3) as the nomadic society becomes fully sedentarized, there is a period in which fertility remains at a high level but then begins to fall slowly, whereas mortality, after reaching a temporary minimum, exhibits a minor increase followed by a resumption of a declining trend; and 4) in the postsedentarization phase, the demographic regime of the ex-nomads becomes similar to the 2nd and 3rd stages of the original demographic transition theory, with a slowdown of the decline in mortality, followed by a later slowdown of fertility and of the rate of natural increase. The hypothesis of rising fertility among sedentarizing nomads is related to both social modernization and economic growth and development, including an improved standard of living and public health services. The interrelated processes of general societal responses to population growth and the changing role of children in the family are assumed to account for the eventual fertility decline. Data from several countries, including a case history from Israel, suggest that birth rates increase along the continuum but their decline at postsedentarization will depend on trends in the general rural sector. Natural increase rates of sedentarizing nomads are considerably higher than those of pastoral nomads. It is concluded that this approach may fill a gap in

  2. Effectiveness of rapid rail transit system in Beijing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Hui-Min; Ning, Yi-Zi; Ma, Xiaoke; Liu, Xin; Zhang, Zhong-Yuan

    2017-01-01

    The effectiveness of rapid rail transit system is analyzed using tools of complex network for the first time. We evaluated the effectiveness of the system in Beijing quantitatively from different perspectives, including descriptive statistics analysis, bridging property, centrality property, ability of connecting different part of the system and ability of disease spreading. The results showed that the public transport of Beijing does benefit from the rapid rail transit lines, and the benefit of different regions from RRTS is gradually decreased from the north to the south. The paper concluded with some policy suggestions regarding how to promote the system. This study offered significant insight that can help understand the public transportation better. The methodology can be easily applied to analyze other urban public systems, such as electricity grid, water system, to develop more livable cities.

  3. Effectiveness of rapid rail transit system in Beijing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui-Min Cheng

    Full Text Available The effectiveness of rapid rail transit system is analyzed using tools of complex network for the first time. We evaluated the effectiveness of the system in Beijing quantitatively from different perspectives, including descriptive statistics analysis, bridging property, centrality property, ability of connecting different part of the system and ability of disease spreading. The results showed that the public transport of Beijing does benefit from the rapid rail transit lines, and the benefit of different regions from RRTS is gradually decreased from the north to the south. The paper concluded with some policy suggestions regarding how to promote the system. This study offered significant insight that can help understand the public transportation better. The methodology can be easily applied to analyze other urban public systems, such as electricity grid, water system, to develop more livable cities.

  4. Urgent Need to Orient Public Health Response to Rapid Nutrition Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umesh Kapil

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available India is currently undergoing a rapid transition on economic, demographic, epidemiologic, nutrition, and sociological fronts. There is evidence of a decline in undernutrition with a simultaneous escalation in overnutrition and associated non-communicable diseases (NCDs. However, the current concern and national policy response for tackling malnutrition in India is still primarily restricted to undernutrition diagnosed on the basis of body size (anthropometry. A complex range of interacting factors have been linked to the rising trend of overnutrition and associated NCDs from a global perspective. The burden of overnutrition and associated morbidities is rapidly escalating to alarming proportions, particularly in urban areas and high socio-economic status groups. The poor are not spared from this transition. It is predicted that a more rapid transition may occur amongst poor populations in future with higher economic development. The need of the hour is to launch an integrated public health response to the dual burden beginning from pregnancy and early life. This will obviously require careful deliberation of the strategy and interventions, and a multi-sectoral approach, especially involving the health, women and child development, nutrition, education, agriculture, food processing, trade, architecture, water supply and sanitation, community and non-governmental organizations.

  5. Modeling the Coordinated Operation between Bus Rapid Transit and Bus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiaqing Wu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The coordination between bus rapid transit (BRT and feeder bus service is helpful in improving the operational efficiency and service level of urban public transport system. Therefore, a coordinated operation model of BRT and bus is intended to develop in this paper. The total costs are formulated and optimized by genetic algorithm. Moreover, the skip-stop BRT operation is considered when building the coordinated operation model. A case of the existing bus network in Beijing is studied, the proposed coordinated operation model of BRT and bus is applied, and the optimized headway and costs are obtained. The results show that the coordinated operation model could effectively decrease the total costs of the transit system and the transfer time of passengers. The results also suggest that the coordination between the skip-stop BRT and bus during peak hour is more effective than non-coordination operation.

  6. The neolithic demographic transition in Europe: correlation with juvenility index supports interpretation of the summed calibrated radiocarbon date probability distribution (SCDPD as a valid demographic proxy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean S Downey

    Full Text Available Analysis of the proportion of immature skeletons recovered from European prehistoric cemeteries has shown that the transition to agriculture after 9000 BP triggered a long-term increase in human fertility. Here we compare the largest analysis of European cemeteries to date with an independent line of evidence, the summed calibrated date probability distribution of radiocarbon dates (SCDPD from archaeological sites. Our cemetery reanalysis confirms increased growth rates after the introduction of agriculture; the radiocarbon analysis also shows this pattern, and a significant correlation between both lines of evidence confirms the demographic validity of SCDPDs. We analyze the areal extent of Neolithic enclosures and demographic data from ethnographically known farming and foraging societies and we estimate differences in population levels at individual sites. We find little effect on the overall shape and precision of the SCDPD and we observe a small increase in the correlation with the cemetery trends. The SCDPD analysis supports the hypothesis that the transition to agriculture dramatically increased demographic growth, but it was followed within centuries by a general pattern of collapse even after accounting for higher settlement densities during the Neolithic. The study supports the unique contribution of SCDPDs as a valid demographic proxy for the demographic patterns associated with early agriculture.

  7. Agency in Fertility Decisions in Western Europe During the Demographic Transition: A Comparative Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reher, David Sven; Sandström, Glenn; Sanz-Gimeno, Alberto; van Poppel, Frans W A

    2017-02-01

    We use a set of linked reproductive histories taken from Sweden, the Netherlands, and Spain for the period 1871-1960 to address key issues regarding how reproductive change was linked specifically to mortality and survivorship and more generally to individual agency. Using event-history analysis, this study investigates how the propensity to have additional children was influenced by the number of surviving offspring when reproductive decisions were made. The results suggest that couples were continuously regulating their fertility to achieve reproductive goals. Families experiencing child fatalities show significant increases in the hazard of additional births. In addition, the sex composition of the surviving sibset also appears to have influenced reproductive decisions in a significant but changing way. The findings offer strong proof of active decision-making during the demographic transition and provide an important contribution to the literature on the role of mortality for reproductive change.

  8. Does Women's Education Affect Fertility? Evidence from Pre-Demographic Transition Prussia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Becker, Sascha; Cinnirella, Francesco; Woessmann, Ludger

    2013-01-01

    , and 1867—to estimate the relationship between women's education and their fertility before the demographic transition. Despite controlling for several demand and supply factors, we find a negative residual effect of women's education on fertility. Instrumental-variable estimates using educational variation......While women's employment opportunities, relative wages, and the child quantity–quality trade-off have been studied as factors underlying historical fertility limitation, the role of women's education has received little attention. We combine Prussian county data from three censuses—1816, 1849...... deriving from landownership concentration, as well as panel estimates controlling for fixed effects of counties, suggest that the effect of women's education on fertility is causal....

  9. Dimensions of Rational Decision-Making during the Demographic Transition; Aranjuez (Spain Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Reher

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available A set of linked reproductive histories taken from the Spanish town of Aranjuez during the demographic transition is used to address key issues regarding reproductive change and reproductive choice. This paper builds on the existing literature and especially on the findings first shown in Reher & Sanz-Gimeno (2007 and in Van Poppel et al. (2012 where the links between childhood survival and reproductive decision-making were specified. This paper goes beyond the original ones in two important ways: (a the sex composition of the surviving sibset is included in the analysis and (b behavior is modeled by means of event history analysis. In these models, controls for the survival status of the previous child are introduced so as to distinguish between biological factors related to the cessation of breastfeeding and both short term (child replacement and more long-term reproductive strategies. The results offer convincing proof that couples were continually regulating their fertility in order to achieve reproductive goals both in terms of net fertility and of the sex composition of the resulting sibset. Here results show that both sexes were desired by parents but that lack of surviving males had greater influence on fertility behavior. As expected, controls for the survival status of the previous-born child were important though they did not diminish appreciably the overall effect of the number of surviving offspring. This article offers strong proof for the existence of active decision-making during the demographic transition and applies a method to model these behaviors over the full reproductive history of the couple.

  10. [The public healthcare system in the context of Brazil's demographic transition: current and future demands].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendes, Antonio da Cruz Gouveia; Sá, Domicio Aurélio de; Miranda, Gabriella Morais Duarte; Lyra, Tereza Maciel; Tavares, Ricardo Antonio Wanderley

    2012-05-01

    This paper assesses inpatient and outpatient care and their capacity to respond to changing demands in the context of the demographic transition in Brazil. The data were obtained from studies by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and databases in the National Health System (CNES, SIH, and SIA). The reduction in birth, fertility, and infant mortality rates and the increase in life expectancy at birth are still driving population growth, while decreasing the dependency rate, thereby providing the opportunity to make necessary adjustments. The population increased by more than 27.5 million from 1999 to 2009, with a 26.7% reduction in hospital beds and 947,000 hospitalizations, with distortions in the distribution by specialty, but with increases in high-complexity outpatient and inpatient care. The results show that Brazil is undergoing a transition in the healthcare model, requiring greater capacity for future planning of a more complex system and revising the model to prepare for a larger elderly population in the coming decades.

  11. Singapore in the 1990s. Can population policies reverse the demographic transition?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, E

    1995-07-01

    Singapore experienced an extraordinary demographic transition from a population growth of over 4% per year in the late 1950s to around 1.6% in the 1990s and below replacement fertility since 1986. In 1987 official government policy shifted to measures for increasing fertility. This paper explores whether Singapore's pronatalist policies can reverse the demographic transition. The present policies aim to selectively increase fertility among the well educated. By 1987 the slogan switched from "stop at two" to "have three, if you can afford it." The policy included tax relief for a third child and other measures to encourage a third child. The policies are expected to have a different influence on society according to one's education, income, and family size. The government target is to selectively increase population by 40% over 25 years. Singapore's transition may follow the theory that low fertility is attained in societies where kin relationships are less important than personal educational achievements. The three ethnic groups responded differently to educational and fertility policies. The Chinese acquired the best education and attained the lowest fertility. The Chinese, who comprised 76% of total population in 1986, continued to have low fertility, while increases occurred among the Malays and the Indians. Future trends are considered difficult to predict. A survey conducted in 1992 in Ang Mo Kio among 489 reproductive age respondents revealed that Malays had the earliest marriage and first births before the age of 25 years (75% of Malays and 50% of Indians). The Chinese had their first child at 25 years or older. Without controls for the age of the mother, a strong statistically significant association was found between ethnic group and age at marriage and age at first birth. The relationship was not supported for current fertility. A comparison of women married for 5 years or less and 5 years or more revealed that women in recent marriages showed a greater

  12. Value Orientations and the Second Demographic Transition (SDT in Northern, Western and Southern Europe: An Update

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available The core issue in this article is the empirical tracing of the connection between a variety of value orientations and the life course choices concerning living arrangements and family formation. The existence of such a connection is a crucial element in the so-called theory of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT. The underlying model is of a recursive nature and based on two effects: firstly, values-based self-selection of individuals into alternative living arrangement or household types, and secondly, event-based adaptation of values to the newly chosen household situation. Any testing of such a recursive model requires the use of panel data. Failing these, only "footprints" of the two effects can be derived and traced in cross-sectional data. Here, use is made of the latest round of the European Values Surveys of 1999-2000, mainly because no other source has such a large selection of value items. The comparison involves two Iberian countries, three western European ones, and two Scandinavian samples. The profiles of the value orientations are based on 80 items which cover a variety of dimensions (e.g. religiosity, ethics, civil morality, family values, social cohesion, expressive values, gender role orientations, trust in institutions, protest proneness and post-materialism, tolerance for minorities etc.. These are analysed according to eight different household positions based on the transitions to independent living, cohabitation and marriage, parenthood and union dissolution. Multiple Classification Analysis (MCA is used to control for confounding effects of other relevant covariates (age, gender, education, economic activity and stratification, urbanity. Subsequently, Correspondence Analysis is used to picture the proximities between the 80 value items and the eight household positions. Very similar value profiles according to household position are found for the three sets of countries, despite the fact that the onset of the SDT in

  13. Methanogens rapidly transition from methane production to iron reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivan, O; Shusta, S S; Valentine, D L

    2016-03-01

    Methanogenesis, the microbial methane (CH4 ) production, is traditionally thought to anchor the mineralization of organic matter as the ultimate respiratory process in deep sediments, despite the presence of oxidized mineral phases, such as iron oxides. This process is carried out by archaea that have also been shown to be capable of reducing iron in high levels of electron donors such as hydrogen. The current pure culture study demonstrates that methanogenic archaea (Methanosarcina barkeri) rapidly switch from methanogenesis to iron-oxide reduction close to natural conditions, with nitrogen atmosphere, even when faced with substrate limitations. Intensive, biotic iron reduction was observed following the addition of poorly crystalline ferrihydrite and complex organic matter and was accompanied by inhibition of methane production. The reaction rate of this process was of the first order and was dependent only on the initial iron concentrations. Ferrous iron production did not accelerate significantly with the addition of 9,10-anthraquinone-2,6-disulfonate (AQDS) but increased by 11-28% with the addition of phenazine-1-carboxylate (PCA), suggesting the possible role of methanophenazines in the electron transport. The coupling between ferrous iron and methane production has important global implications. The rapid transition from methanogenesis to reduction of iron-oxides close to the natural conditions in sediments may help to explain the globally-distributed phenomena of increasing ferrous concentrations below the traditional iron reduction zone in the deep 'methanogenic' sediment horizon, with implications for metabolic networking in these subsurface ecosystems and in past geological settings. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. First conjugal union and religion: Signs contrary to the Second Demographic Transition in Brazil?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Verona

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Two of main characteristics of the Latin American conjugal union pattern are the early entry into first union and the increasing proportion of informal unions. These features have been associated, respectively, with the strong presence and role of family ties in promoting economic and social stability and with changing attitudes in the family, ethnic, and religious spheres. Objective: The objective of this study is to examine the association of religion with entry into first conjugal union and type of first union (formal or informal among women aged 20-29 years old in Brazil. Methods: Data from the 2006 National Survey on Demography and Health and logistic regression models were used. Considering the cross-sectional nature of the data, an attempt was made to infer the causal direction of the relationship between religion and first conjugal union and type of union. Results: The main results show that Evangelical women (Missionary and Pentecostal, when compared to Catholics, have much higher odds of being in a union for the first time (suggesting early age at the time of union and of engaging in a formal union. This result contradicts the common finding observed in Latin America that women in early unions prefer an informal union. Conclusions: The results contribute to the discussion on potential signs of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT in Brazil. The two features observed among Evangelical women, early and formal marriage, are aspects that inhibit or delay the diffusion of the conjugal union pattern suggested by this approach.

  15. Mortality decline and reproductive change during the Dutch demographic transition: revisiting a traditional debate with new data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Poppel, F.W.A.; Reher, D.S.; Sanz-Gimeno, A.; Sanchez-Dominguez, M.; Beekink, E.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND According to classic demographic transition theory, mortality change is the key factor that triggers a decline in fertility. Research on this topic has mostly relied on aggregate or time series data. Since fertility is based on the joint decisions of couples when confronted with specific

  16. The demographic transition in the Korean peninsula, 1910-1990: South and North Korea compared.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, D S

    1994-12-01

    North and South Korea have both experienced demographic transition and fertility and mortality declines. The fertility declines came later in North Korea. In 1990, the population was 43.4 million in South Korea and 21.4 million in North Korea and the age and sex compositions were similar. This evolution of population structure occurred despite differences in political systems and fertility determinants. Differences were in the fertility rate and the rate of natural increase. The total fertility rate was 2.5 children in North Korea and 1.6 in South Korea. The rate of natural increase was 18.5 per 1000 in North Korea and 9.8 in South Korea. Until 1910, the Korean peninsula was in the traditional stage characterized by high fertility and mortality. The early transitional stage came during 1910-45 under the Japanese annexation. Health and medical facilities improved and the crude birth rate rose and then declined. With the exception of the war years, population expanded as a function of births, deaths, and international migration. Poor economic conditions in rural areas acted as a push factor for south-directed migration, migration to Japan, and urban migration. Next came the chaotic stage, during 1945-60. South Korean population expanded during this period of political unrest. Repatriation and refugee migration constituted a large proportion of the population increase. Although the war brought high mortality, new medicine and disease treatment reduced the mortality rate after the war. By 1955-60, the crude death rate was 16.1 per 1000 in South Korea. The crude birth rate remained high at 42 per 1000 between 1950-55. The postwar period was characterized by the baby boom and higher fertility than the pre-war period of 1925-45. Total fertility was 6.3 by 1955-60. The late transitional stage occurred during 1960-85 with reduced fertility and continued mortality decline. By 1980-85, total fertility was 2.3 in the closed population. The restabilization stage occurred during

  17. Alternative Fuel Transit Buses: DART's (Dallas Area Rapid Transit) LNG Bus Fleet Final Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chandler, K. [Battelle (US); Norton, P. [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (US); Clark, N.

    2000-11-07

    In 1998, Dallas Area Rapid Transit, a public transit agency in Dallas, Texas, began operating a large fleet of heavy-duty buses powered by liquefied natural gas. As part of a $16 million commitment to alternative fuels, DART operates 139 LNG buses serviced by two new LNG fueling stations.

  18. Successfulness of bus rapid transit systems in Asia. Ex-post evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kogdenko, Nadja

    2010-01-01

    SUMMARY Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) can be defined as “a bus-based mass transit system that delivers fast, comfortable, and cost-effective urban mobility”. It offers the opportunity to create a high-quality mass transit system at affordable costs, which is p

  19. The effects of socioeconomic and cultural characteristics of regions on the spatial patterns of the Second Demographic Transition in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elina Mäenpää

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The article studies to what extent regional socioeconomic and cultural characteristics explain spatial patterns in the Second Demographic Transition in Finland. The country's 75 functional regions are used as area units. A summary indicator of the transition based on divorce and cohabitation is used as the dependent variable. The results show that the spatial pattern is mainly determined according to the regional level of urbanization, but the effect is mediated by cultural characteristics (secularization and support for the socialist and green parties. The cultural characteristics have only a modest independent effect.

  20. Path-integral calculation for the emergence of rapid evolution from demographic stochasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Hong-Yan; Goldenfeld, Nigel

    2014-11-01

    Genetic variation in a population can sometimes arise so fast as to modify ecosystem dynamics. Such phenomena have been observed in natural predator-prey systems and characterized in the laboratory as showing unusual phase relationships in population dynamics, including a π phase shift between predator and prey (evolutionary cycles) and even undetectable prey oscillations compared to those of the predator (cryptic cycles). Here we present a generic individual-level stochastic model of interacting populations that includes a subpopulation of low nutritional value to the predator. Using a master equation formalism and by mapping to a coherent state path integral solved by a system-size expansion, we show that evolutionary and cryptic quasicycles can emerge generically from the combination of intrinsic demographic fluctuations and clonal mutations alone, without additional biological mechanisms.

  1. Urban Quality vs single travel: the Personal Rapid Transit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmela Gargiulo

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The great increase in the demand for private mobility with the con­sequent macroscopic growth of channels to meet it, together with short-sighted policies of transport and urban development spread above all in Italy, has produced pollution, congestion and unlivability in the last fifty years.The hope of assuring the maximum individual freedom of travel to people living in consolidated urban centres, in addition to those living in the outskirts arisen and developed without any reasonable urban logic, still goes on producing congestion of vehicular traffic, conside­red, by the majority of citizens, the main cause of the deterioration of the quality of life in our cities.Indeed, also the most recent reports on environment in Italian cities show that the pollution levels are increasing in the big cities, although the news are full of very expensive projects, innovative solutions and unexpected goals continuously shown by public administrations. One of the main environmental detractors is car traffic, which has recently gained on public transport. unlike the previous period. Most of mobility policies implemented in our cities aims at reaching the modal balance by means of measures for controlling and managing the demand for mobility, for mitigating traffic and limiting circulation., such as the road pricing and the parking strategies; for developing and increasing public transport and not polluting means of transport, car sharing and car pooling.All of them have showed modest results both in terms of pollution reduction and vehicular traffic reduction. For over fifty years, mostly in the United States, the Personal Rapid Transit has been tested, a system of public transport trying to join two apparently incompatible factors: the possibility of assuring individual travels and the need for decreasing the levels of acoustic and air pol­lution as well as the congestion caused by private vehicular traffic. In Italy this system is still not well known

  2. Urban Quality vs Single Travel: the Personal Rapid Transit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmela Gargiulo

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The great increase in the demand for private mobility with theconsequent macroscopic growth of channels to meet it, togetherwith short-sighted policies of transport and urban developmentspread above all in Italy, has produced pollution, congestion andunlivability in the last fifty years.The hope of assuring the maximum individual freedom of travel topeople living in consolidated urban centres, in addition to thoseliving in the outskirts arisen and developed without any reasonableurban logic, still goes on producing congestion of vehicular traffic,considered, by the majority of citizens, the main cause of thedeterioration of the quality of life in our cities.Indeed, also the most recent reports on environment in Italiancities show that the pollution levels are increasing in the big cities,although the news are full of very expensive projects, innovativesolutions and unexpected goals continuously shown by publicadministrations. One of the main environmental detractors is cartraffic, which has recently gained on public transport. unlike theprevious period.Most of mobility policies implemented in our cities aims at reachingthe modal balance by means of measures for controlling and managingthe demand for mobility, for mitigating traffic and limiting circulation.,such as the road pricing and the parking strategies; for developingand increasing public transport and not polluting means of transport,car sharing and car pooling.All of them have showed modest results both in terms of pollutionreduction and vehicular traffic reduction.For over fifty years, mostly in the United States, the Personal RapidTransit has been tested, a system of public transport trying to jointwo apparently incompatible factors: the possibility of assuringindividual travels and the need for decreasing the levels of acousticand air pollution as well as the congestion caused by privatevehicular traffic.In Italy this system is still not well known despite the versatility ofits fields

  3. Land use impacts of rapid transit: implications of recent experience. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knight, R.L.; Trygg, L.L.

    1977-08-01

    Evidence of land use impacts of recent major rapid transit improvements are reviewed and conclusions drawn concerning the extent and nature of such impacts and the conditions under which they have occurred. Transit improvements studied are primarily post-World War II in origin. American and Canadian examples are stressed, although European experience is teated briefly. Virtually all major modern American and Canadian rapid transit investments are included, covering conventional rapid rail, commuter rail, light rail and bus/busway. In addition to conclusions on general patterns of land use impact and causes, research recommendations and Federal policy implications are drawn.

  4. Dallas area rapid transit impact study: A framework for assessing land use and development impacts. Research report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, P.J.; Euritt, M.A.; Walton, C.M.

    1993-05-01

    Seven transit system impact reports were reviewed in an effort to identify strategies for measuring land-use impacts for Dallas Area Rapid Transit's (DART) light rail starter line. These systems were selected on the basis of impact study quality, system characteristics (type, size, and age), and city demographics. From these existing studies some commonly used techniques are identified and then used to form the basis for the land use component of the DART impact study design. The report concludes that DART's success in fostering economic growth will depend on many factors, including interagency coordination and, perhaps most importantly, how public/private opportunities are promoted. Other variables range from the tangible (ridership, on-time performance, operating efficiency) to the abstract (civic pride, world-class-city status, desirable urban form).

  5. Demographic transition in India: an evolutionary interpretation of population and health trends using 'change-point analysis'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goli, Srinivas; Arokiasamy, Perianayagam

    2013-01-01

    Lack of a robust analytical tool for trend analysis of population and health indicators is the basic rationale of this study. In an effort to fill this gap, this study advances 'Change-Point analyzer' as a new analytical tool for assessment of the progress and its pattern in population and health indicators. The defining feature of 'change-point analyzer' is that, it detects subtle changes that are often missed in simple trend line plots and also quantified the volume of change that is not possible in simple trend line plots. A long-term assessment of 'change-point analyses' of trends in population and health indicators such as IMR, Population size, TFR, and LEB in India show multiple points of critical changes. Measured change points of demographic and health trends helps in understanding the demographic transitional shifts connecting it to contextual policy shifts. Critical change-points in population and health indicators in India are associated with the evolution of structural changes in population and health policy framework. This study, therefore, adds significantly to the evolutionary interpretation of critical change-points in long-term trajectories of population and health indicators vis-a-vis population and health policy shifts in India. The results have not only helped in reassessing the historical past and the current demographic transition trajectory but also advanced a new method of assessing the population and health trends which are necessary for robust monitoring of the progress in population and health policies.

  6. State and Federal project development procedures for bus rapid transit : managing differences and reducing implementation delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-01

    This report documents an investigation into the transportation project development process in the : context of the implementation of bus rapid transit systems on the State Highway System as well as such : systems being part of the Federal New Starts ...

  7. Modeling and evaluation of characteristics for on-street Rapid Transit systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jonas Lohmann Elkjær; Landex, Alex

    2012-01-01

    to obtain the main objective of introducing a Rapid Transit System. to increase the number of passengers. Variations in the system characteristics have a direct impact on ridership. However, it is difficult to predict the impact of implementing or altering the characteristics. A Rapid Transit system should...... display sufficient service already in the planning phase. That is why pre-acquired knowledge of the impact of the characteristics on the system performance is valuable. Such knowledge could provide a firm basis for planning the service and operation of a Rapid Transit system. This article focuses....... It focuses on the following characteristics for Rapid Transit systems: rail factor, travel time, headway and capacity. It evaluates how the implementation and variation of these characteristics affected the ridership of a case project. It evaluates the magnitude of the impacts for the various characteristics...

  8. Climatic implications of a rapid wind/solar transition

    CERN Document Server

    Schwartzman, Peter D; Zhang, Xiaochun

    2016-01-01

    A transition to a fully global renewable energy infrastructure is potentially possible in no more than a few decades, even using current wind/solar technologies. We demonstrate that at its completion this transition would terminate anthropogenic carbon emissions to the atmosphere derived from energy consumption in roughly 25 years as well as double current global energy production. This result would provide all human energy needs worldwide and additional energy required for climate adaptation as well as carbon sequestration from the atmosphere to bring down the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to safer levels. The implementation of this energy transition in the near future would maximize the probability for achieving a less than 2 deg C, with a potential 1.5 deg C limit, increase to global temperature over the pre-industrial level by 2100. Our best case scenario utilizes less than 3% of current annual global energy consumption per year with an annual reinvestment of 10% of its growing renewable ...

  9. Telehealth Delivery of Rapid Syllable Transitions (ReST) Treatment for Childhood Apraxia of Speech

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Donna C.; McCabe, Patricia; Ballard, Kirrie J.; Lincoln, Michelle

    2016-01-01

    Background: Rapid Syllable Transitions (ReST) treatment uses pseudo-word targets with varying lexical stress to target simultaneously articulation, prosodic accuracy and coarticulatory transitions in childhood apraxia of speech (CAS). The treatment is efficacious for the acquisition of imitated pseudo-words, and generalization of skill to…

  10. Understanding Students' Transition to High School: Demographic Variation and the Role of Supportive Relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benner, Aprile D; Boyle, Alaina E; Bakhtiari, Farin

    2017-10-01

    The transition to high school is disruptive for many adolescents, yet little is known about the supportive relational processes that might attenuate the challenges students face as they move from middle to high school, particularly for students from more diverse backgrounds. Identifying potential buffers that protect youth across this critical educational transition is important for informing more effective support services for youth. In this study, we investigated how personal characteristics (gender, nativity, parent education level) and changes in support from family, friends, and school influenced changes in socioemotional adjustment and academic outcomes across the transition from middle to high school. The data were drawn from 252 students (50% females, 85% Latina/o). The results revealed declines in students' grades and increases in depressive symptoms and feelings of loneliness across the high school transition, with key variation by student nativity and gender. Additionally, stable/increasing friend support and school belonging were both linked to less socioemotional disruptions as students moved from middle to high school. Increasing/stable school belonging was also linked to increases in school engagement across the high school transition. These findings suggest that when high school transitions disrupt supportive relationships with important others in adolescents' lives, adolescents' socioemotional well-being and, to a lesser extent, their academic engagement are also compromised. Thus, in designing transition support activities, particularly for schools serving more low-income and race/ethnic minority youth, such efforts should strive to acclimate new high school students by providing inclusive, caring environments and positive connections with educators and peers.

  11. Effects of new bus and rail rapid transit systems – an international review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingvardson, Jesper Bláfoss; Nielsen, Otto Anker

    2018-01-01

    this gap in the literature by reviewing and comparing the effects obtained by 86 transit systems around the world, including Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), Light Rail Transit (LRT), metro and heavy rail transit systems. The analysis is twofold by analysing (i) the direct operational effects related to travel...... areas surrounding the transit line with increasing property values. Such effects are traditionally associated with attractive rail-based public transport systems. However, a statistical comparison of 41 systems did not show significant deviations between effects on property values resulting from BRT......Cities worldwide are implementing modern transit systems to improve mobility in the increasingly congested metropolitan areas. Despite much research on the effects of such systems, a comparison of effects across transit modes and countries has not been studied comprehensively. This paper fills...

  12. Transit climate change adaptation assessment/asset management pilot for the Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    Public transit agencies play an important role in the provision of safe, reliable, and cost-effective transportation for the communities they serve. With the growing intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes Irene and Sand...

  13. Socio-demographic, behavioral, and health correlates of nutrition transition dietary indicators in San Juan, Puerto Rico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uriyoán Colón-Ramos

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To identify socio-demographic, behavioral, and health-related correlates of food preferences in Puerto Rico that will help determine Caribbean-region populations vulnerable to nutrition transition. METHODS: Data from a cross-sectional study of a representative sample of 858 adults residing in the San Juan Metropolitan Area of Puerto Rico were analyzed. Multivariable ordinal logistic regressions were used to model the frequency of consumption of 1 fruits and vegetables, 2 tubers/starchy root vegetables, 3 fried foods, and 4 Western-style fast foods as a function of socio-demographic, behavioral, and health-related characteristics. RESULTS: Higher frequency of consumption of fruits and vegetables was associated with being physically active and older and having a medium to high level of education, whereas intake of tubers was associated with being older, having a low income, not using government insurance, and having elevated levels of triglycerides. Frequency of consumption of fast food was associated with younger age, higher income, 12-15 years of formal education, and a higher body mass index (BMI, whereas frequency of consumption of fried food was associated with being younger and male, not being a smoker, and having elevated levels of fasting blood glucose. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate a nutrition transition in Puerto Rico with health consequences for the Caribbean region. The characteristics of this nutrition transition seem to be determined by income, education, and age, but may also be dictated by access to various food groups. These results set the stage for needed investigation of environmental and individual-level factors that could shape patterns in food consumption.

  14. Socio-demographic, behavioral, and health correlates of nutrition transition dietary indicators in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colón-Ramos, Uriyoán; Pérez-Cardona, Cynthia M; Monge-Rojas, Rafael

    2013-11-01

    To identify socio-demographic, behavioral, and health-related correlates of food preferences in Puerto Rico that will help determine Caribbean-region populations vulnerable to nutrition transition. Data from a cross-sectional study of a representative sample of 858 adults residing in the San Juan Metropolitan Area of Puerto Rico were analyzed. Multivariable ordinal logistic regressions were used to model the frequency of consumption of 1) fruits and vegetables, 2) tubers/starchy root vegetables, 3) fried foods, and 4) Western-style fast foods as a function of socio-demographic, behavioral, and health-related characteristics. Higher frequency of consumption of fruits and vegetables was associated with being physically active and older and having a medium to high level of education, whereas intake of tubers was associated with being older, having a low income, not using government insurance, and having elevated levels of triglycerides. Frequency of consumption of fast food was associated with younger age, higher income, 12-15 years of formal education, and a higher body mass index (BMI), whereas frequency of consumption of fried food was associated with being younger and male, not being a smoker, and having elevated levels of fasting blood glucose. The results indicate a nutrition transition in Puerto Rico with health consequences for the Caribbean region. The characteristics of this nutrition transition seem to be determined by income, education, and age, but may also be dictated by access to various food groups. These results set the stage for needed investigation of environmental and individual-level factors that could shape patterns in food consumption.

  15. Maternal Risk of Breeding Failure Remained Low throughout the Demographic Transitions in Fertility and Age at First Reproduction in Finland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jianghua; Rotkirch, Anna; Lummaa, Virpi

    2012-01-01

    Radical declines in fertility and postponement of first reproduction during the recent human demographic transitions have posed a challenge to interpreting human behaviour in evolutionary terms. This challenge has stemmed from insufficient evolutionary insight into individual reproductive decision-making and the rarity of datasets recording individual long-term reproductive success throughout the transitions. We use such data from about 2,000 Finnish mothers (first births: 1880s to 1970s) to show that changes in the maternal risk of breeding failure (no offspring raised to adulthood) underlay shifts in both fertility and first reproduction. With steady improvements in offspring survival, the expected fertility required to satisfy a low risk of breeding failure became lower and observed maternal fertility subsequently declined through an earlier age at last reproduction. Postponement of the age at first reproduction began when this risk approximated zero–even for mothers starting reproduction late. Interestingly, despite vastly differing fertility rates at different stages of the transitions, the number of offspring successfully raised to breeding per mother remained relatively constant over the period. Our results stress the importance of assessing the long-term success of reproductive strategies by including measures of offspring quality and suggest that avoidance of breeding failure may explain several key features of recent life-history shifts in industrialized societies. PMID:22529952

  16. The effect of food withdrawal in children with rapid-transit constipation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kearsey, I; Hutson, J M; Southwell, B R

    2016-07-01

    Rapid proximal colonic transit with anorectal holdup is a subtype of chronic constipation linked to food intolerance. We aimed to determine the effectiveness of dietary exclusion as a treatment for constipated children with rapid-transit constipation by scintigraphy. Questionnaires on diet and symptoms were mailed out to 125 children with chronic constipation and rapid proximal colonic transit on nuclear transit study at our institute between 1998 and 2014 years. Patients were given instructions and encouraged to undertake a six-food elimination diet targeting common protein allergens (dairy, wheat, soy, eggs, nuts, seafood). Answers were completed by circling an option or on visual analogue scale. Results were evaluated statistically using GraphPad Prism 6 by a Wilcoxon matched-pairs rank test. P Constipation, abdominal pain and pain on defecation were reduced (p 50 % of families. Dietary exclusion is a promising strategy to treat constipation in children with rapid proximal colonic transit. However, it was hard for many families, demonstrating the need for identifying the cause more specifically and a better set of instructions for the family and/or dietitian to follow.

  17. Sustainable energy for the future. Modelling transitions to renewable and clean energy in rapidly developing countries.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Urban, Frauke

    2009-01-01

    The main objective of this thesis is first to adapt energy models for the use in developing countries and second to model sustainable energy transitions and their effects in rapidly developing countries like China and India. The focus of this thesis is three-fold: a) to elaborate the differences

  18. Impacts of bus rapid transit (BRT) on surrounding residential property values : final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-07-01

    As bus rapid transit (BRT) grows in popularity in the United States, a better understanding of the modes impacts on land uses and property values is needed. Economic theory suggests, and literature has shown, that people are willing to pay higher ...

  19. Modeling commuter preferences for the proposed bus rapid transit in Dar-es-Salaam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nkurunziza, A.; Zuidgeest, M.H.P.; Brussel, M.J.G.; van Maarseveen, M.F.A.M.

    2012-01-01

    The paper analyzes individual commuter preferences towards the proposed bus rapid transit (BRT) system in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania. The objective of the survey was to identify how commuters perceive and value the proposed BRT service quality attributes. A stated preference survey of potential users

  20. Sex reversal triggers the rapid transition from genetic to temperature-dependent sex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holleley, Clare E; O'Meally, Denis; Sarre, Stephen D; Marshall Graves, Jennifer A; Ezaz, Tariq; Matsubara, Kazumi; Azad, Bhumika; Zhang, Xiuwen; Georges, Arthur

    2015-07-02

    Sex determination in animals is amazingly plastic. Vertebrates display contrasting strategies ranging from complete genetic control of sex (genotypic sex determination) to environmentally determined sex (for example, temperature-dependent sex determination). Phylogenetic analyses suggest frequent evolutionary transitions between genotypic and temperature-dependent sex determination in environmentally sensitive lineages, including reptiles. These transitions are thought to involve a genotypic system becoming sensitive to temperature, with sex determined by gene-environment interactions. Most mechanistic models of transitions invoke a role for sex reversal. Sex reversal has not yet been demonstrated in nature for any amniote, although it occurs in fish and rarely in amphibians. Here we make the first report of reptile sex reversal in the wild, in the Australian bearded dragon (Pogona vitticeps), and use sex-reversed animals to experimentally induce a rapid transition from genotypic to temperature-dependent sex determination. Controlled mating of normal males to sex-reversed females produces viable and fertile offspring whose phenotypic sex is determined solely by temperature (temperature-dependent sex determination). The W sex chromosome is eliminated from this lineage in the first generation. The instantaneous creation of a lineage of ZZ temperature-sensitive animals reveals a novel, climate-induced pathway for the rapid transition between genetic and temperature-dependent sex determination, and adds to concern about adaptation to rapid global climate change.

  1. Rapid Fatal Outcome from Pulmonary Arteries Compression in Transitional Cell Carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioannis A. Voutsadakis

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Transitional cell carcinoma of the urinary bladder is a malignancy that metastasizes frequently to lymph nodes including the mediastinal lymph nodes. This occurrence may produce symptoms due to compression of adjacent structures such as the superior vena cava syndrome or dysphagia from esophageal compression. We report the case of a 59-year-old man with metastatic transitional cell carcinoma for whom mediastinal lymphadenopathy led to pulmonary artery compression and a rapidly fatal outcome. This rare occurrence has to be distinguished from pulmonary embolism, a much more frequent event in cancer patients, in order that proper and prompt treatment be initiated.

  2. Individuation in Slovene emerging adults: its associations with demographics, transitional markers, achieved criteria for adulthood, and life satisfaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zupančič, Maja; Komidar, Luka; Levpušček, Melita Puklek

    2014-12-01

    The study investigated associations of Slovene emerging adults' age, gender, living situation, romantic relationship, and employment status with aspects of individuation in relation to mother and father. Controlling for demographic variables and transitional markers of adulthood, we further explored the contribution of individuation measures to individuals' perceptions of achieved criteria for adulthood and life satisfaction. The participants provided self-reports on the Individuation Test for Emerging Adults, the Satisfaction With Life Scale, and the list of Achieved Criteria for Adulthood. Age and living out of parental home were positively associated with self-reliance in relation to both parents, whereas female gender was related to higher levels of connectedness and seeking parental support. Along with age and involvement in a romantic relationship, connectedness and self-reliance predicted adulthood criteria attainment and life satisfaction. The results support the models of individuation that emphasize growing autonomy and retaining connectedness to parents as pathways towards personal adjustments. Copyright © 2014 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Population and development beyond the first demographic transition: a focus on the experience of east and southeast Asian countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gavin W. Jones

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper covers a wide scope, focusing on some trends in East and Southeast Asia that may be of interest to Latin America. The first demographic transition has essentially been completed in both regions. The issue is what should now be the focus of our consideration of population and development? East Asian countries are now stressing issues of ultra-low fertility, and policies to raise fertility. They are not comfortable with the prospect of making up future deficits through international migration. The paper also deals briefly with studies of dynamics of change in mega-urban regions, and argues that comparative studies on Latin America and Asia could be valuable. Issues of poverty, development, and equity are then addressed, with particular emphasis on the role of education as a key to equality and development. One dilemma is that in East Asia, the generally commendable obsession with education is one factor making for very low levels of fertility. Finally, the paper touches on population and environmental issues.

  4. Learning through policy tourism: circulating bus rapid transit from South America to South Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Astrid Wood

    2014-01-01

    Study tours, a form of ‘policy tourism’ in which local actors travel elsewhere to see best practice and meet with those in the exporting locality who implemented it, have become a basic tenet for policy exchange. In the pursuit of these lessons, hundreds of South African public transport enthusiasts visited South America, particularly Bogota, to learn of its thriving bus rapid transit (BRT) network. This paper evaluates the influence of these exchanges on BRT circulation and adoption—what tak...

  5. Rapidly increasing body mass index among children, adolescents and young adults in a transitioning population, South Africa, 2008-15.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartorius, B; Sartorius, K; Taylor, M; Aagaard-Hansen, J; Dukhi, N; Day, C; Ndlovu, N; Slotow, R; Hofman, K

    2017-12-14

    There is a global epidemic of overweight and obesity; however, this rate of increase is even greater in some low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). South Africa (SA) is undergoing rapid socioeconomic and demographic changes that have triggered a rapid nutrition transition. The paper focuses on the recent rate of change of body mass index (BMI) among children, adolescents and young adults, further stratified by key sociodemographic factors. We analysed mean BMI of 28 247 individuals (including children) from 7301 households by age and year, from anthropometric data from four national cross-sectional (repeated panel) surveys using non-linear fitted curves and associated 95% confidence intervals. From 2008 to 2015, there was rapid rise in mean BMI in the 6-25 age band, with the highest risk (3-4+ BMI unit increase) among children aged 8-10 years. The increase was largely among females in urban areas and of middle-high socioeconomic standing. Prominent gains were also observed in certain rural areas, with extensive geographical heterogeneity across the country. We have demonstrated a major deviation from the current understanding of patterns of BMI increase, with a rate of increase substantially greater in the developing world context compared with the global pattern. This population-wide effect will have major consequences for national development as the epidemic of related non-communicable disease unfolds, and will overtax the national health care budget. Our refined understanding highlights that risks are further compounded for certain groups/places, and emphasizes that urgent geographical and population-targeted interventions are necessary. These interventions could include a sugar tax, clearer food labelling, revised school feeding programmes and mandatory bans on unhealthy food marketing to children.The scenario unfolding in South Africa will likely be followed in other LMICs.

  6. Mortality decline and reproductive change during the Dutch demographic transition: Revisiting a traditional debate with new data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frans Van Poppel

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND According to classic demographic transition theory, mortality change is the key factor that triggers a decline in fertility. Research on this topic has mostly relied on aggregate or time series data. Since fertility is based on the joint decisions of couples when confronted with specific fertility-childhood mortality outcomes, a focus on the experiences of individual couples is needed. Recently, Reher and Sanz-Gimeno used this approach to analyze individual longitudinal data for the Spanish town of Aranjuez. OBJECTIVE We investigate whether, in a country and in populations characterized by varying cultural and socioeconomic circumstances, family organization, and demographic regimes, the same mechanisms influenced the process of fertility decline as in Spain. METHODS The study uses micro longitudinal data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands for a period stretching from the last quarter of the 19th century to the middle of the 20th century, and demographic measures identical to those used in the Spanish study to test whether the decline in fertility was triggered by the decline in mortality at the level of the family. As religious groups and social classes differed in their ability to correctly assess the implications of mortality levels, and in their willingness, readiness, and ability to react to these changes by adapting their reproductive behavior, we also compared the effect of mortality decline by the religion and the social class of the couples. RESULTS We observed that childhood survival had clear effects on reproduction, the chances of having another child, and the length of the intervals between births, which indicates that this variable was crucial for fertility decisions. This pattern was especially strong after 1900. There were rather consistent and expected differences in the reactions to the survival of children by social class and religious group. Whereas skilled workers were rather sensitive to the number of

  7. Examining the spatially non-stationary associations between the second demographic transition and infant mortality: A Poisson GWR approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Tse-Chuan; Shoff, Carla; Matthews, Stephen A.

    2014-01-01

    Based on ecological studies, second demographic transition (SDT) theorists concluded that some areas in the US were in vanguard of the SDT compared to others, implying spatial nonstationarity may be inherent in the SDT process. Linking the SDT to the infant mortality literature, we sought out to answer two related questions: Are the main components of the SDT, specifically marriage postponement, cohabitation, and divorce, associated with infant mortality? If yes, do these associations vary across the US? We applied global Poisson and geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) models, a place-specific analytic approach, to county-level data in the contiguous US. After accounting for the racial/ethnic and socioeconomic compositions of counties and prenatal care utilization, we found (1) marriage postponement was negatively related to infant mortality in the southwestern states, but positively associated with infant mortality in parts of Indiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee, (2) cohabitation rates were positively related to infant mortality, and this relationship was stronger in California, coastal Virginia, and the Carolinas than other areas, and (3) a positive association between divorce rates and infant mortality in southwestern and northeastern areas of the US. These spatial patterns suggested that the associations between the SDT and infant mortality were stronger in the areas in vanguard of the SDT than in others. The comparison between global Poisson and GWPR results indicated that a place-specific spatial analysis not only fit the data better, but also provided insights into understanding the non-stationarity of the associations between the SDT and infant mortality. PMID:25383259

  8. Developing a Natural Gas-Powered Bus Rapid Transit Service: A Case Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitchell, G.

    2015-11-03

    The Roaring Fork Transit Authority (RFTA) and its VelociRFTA Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) program are unique in many ways. For example, VelociRFTA was the first rural BRT system in the United States and the operational environment of the VelociRFTA BRT is one of the most severe in the country, with extreme winter temperatures and altitudes close to 8,000 feet. RFTA viewed high altitude operation as the most challenging characteristic when it began considering the use of natural gas. RFTA is the second-largest public transit system in Colorado behind Denver's Regional Transportation District (RTD), and it is one of the largest rural public transit systems in the country. In 2013, RFTA accepted delivery of 22 new compressed natural gas (CNG) buses that went into service after completion of maintenance and refueling facilities earlier that year. This paper examines the lessons learned from RFTA's experience of investigating--and ultimately choosing--CNG for their new BRT program and focuses on the unique environment of RFTA's BRT application; the decision process to include CNG fueling in the project; unforeseen difficulties encountered in the operation of CNG buses; public perception; cost comparison to competing fuels; and considerations for indoor fueling facilities and project funding.

  9. Developing a Natural Gas-Powered Bus Rapid Transit Service. A Case Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitchell, George [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-11-01

    The Roaring Fork Transit Authority (RFTA) and its VelociRFTA Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) program are unique in many ways. For example, VelociRFTA was the first rural BRT system in the United States and the operational environment of the VelociRFTA BRT is one of the most severe in the country, with extreme winter temperatures and altitudes close to 8,000 feet. RFTA viewed high altitude operation as the most challenging characteristic when it began considering the use of natural gas. RFTA is the second-largest public transit system in Colorado behind Denver's Regional Transportation District (RTD), and it is one of the largest rural public transit systems in the country. In 2013, RFTA accepted delivery of 22 new compressed natural gas (CNG) buses that went into service after completion of maintenance and refueling facilities earlier that year. This paper examines the lessons learned from RFTA's experience of investigating--and ultimately choosing--CNG for their new BRT program and focuses on the unique environment of RFTA's BRT application; the decision process to include CNG fueling in the project; unforeseen difficulties encountered in the operation of CNG buses; public perception; cost comparison to competing fuels; and considerations for indoor fueling facilities and project funding.

  10. The Impacts of the Mass Rapid Transit System on Household Car Ownership in Taipei

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Hsiu Huang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the impacts of Taipei Mass Rapid Transit (MRT system on household car ownership and analyses how socioeconomic characteristics affect household car ownership. We employ a difference-in-difference (DID strategy integrated with generalized Poisson regression models to examine the effects of MRT. The results are as follows: first, the establishment of Taipei MRT significantly reduced the level of household car ownership. Expanding the network of MRT system can be a feasible policy to control car ownership. Second, the levels of household car ownership are related to household’s socioeconomic characteristics. Third, households with high dependence on public transport own fewer cars after Taipei MRT began operation. Hence, the traffic authority should adopt more effective methods to encourage public transit use in order to decrease household car ownership.

  11. Changes of marital behavior and family patterns in post-socialist countries: Delayed, incomplete or specific second demographic transition?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Mina

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper starts by questioning the theory of second demographic transition (SDT and its universal relevance in the field of marriage behavior and family organization in low fertility context, arguing for more differentiated approaches. With an aim to illustrate the contextual specifics of post-socialist countries in general and of Serbia in particular, the author claims that analyzed changes have not just been delayed or incomplete in comparison to more developed European countries, but shaped by specific modernization processes, which led to rationally developed strategies in overcoming structural risks, although, without ideational changes typical to the theory of SDT. Slow changes in marital behavior and family organization in Serbia are illustrated in recent sociological (empirical research findings. The perceived changes are linked to specific structural risks (war, slow transformation and enduring economic hardships, weak state and low trust in institutions, etc and value characteristics (persistence of materialism and traditionalism, but with increasing ambivalence. The connection between structural and ideational changes is considered through social stratification variable by relying on Coale's model on necessary preconditions for behavioral changes as well as on social deprivation concept. Having in mind upper social strata (more educated and better off, the value changes precede the behavioral that are adapted to economic uncertainty, which still force more traditional marital and family patterns. Therefore, there is a rank of different options, from extended family (for a short period at the beginning of marriage or after divorce to separated leaving (of married partners in parental households (due to refusing the extended family option thus creating quite specific "living apart together" form, combined with dominant strategy of prolonging the marriage. Hence, for upper social strata, marriage is still a universal but negotiable

  12. Diversity as valued and troubled: social identities and demographic categories in understandings of rapid urban growth in Vanuatu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widmer, Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    This paper deals with the simultaneous mainstreaming and diversification of ni-Vanuatu social categories associated with the ways in which population growth is understood as a possible crisis in both demographic knowledge and everyday ni-Vanuatu knowledge. The author is interested in understanding the downplaying but primarily the amplification of difference with respect to place, generation and gender identities. The relationship between reproduction, social reproduction and the multiple meanings of modernity is at issue. In the expert knowledge of demography that proffers advice for the ni-Vanuatu state, it is the lack of modern development - in the form of adequate biomedical birth control, western education, and the equality of women - that is the implicit cause of population growth. Yet, many ni-Vanuatu see population growth as tied to the troubles that arise from the dilution of traditional social forms: there is too much modernity. In both demographic and ni-Vanuatu everyday narrations of the potential population crisis, diversification and mainstreaming take place and vulnerabilities are produced.

  13. Dealing with the Empty Vehicle Movements in Personal Rapid Transit System with Batteries Constraints in a Dynamic Context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ezzeddine Fatnassi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Personal Rapid Transit is a new emergent transportation tool. It relies on using a set of small driverless electric vehicles to transport people on demand. Because of the specific on-demand characteristic of the Personal Rapid Transit system, many Personal Rapid Transit vehicles would move empty which results in a high level of wasted transportation capacity. This is enhanced while using Personal Rapid Transit vehicles with limited electric battery capacity. This paper deals with this problem in a real time context while minimizing the set of empty vehicle movements. First, a mathematical formulation to benchmark waiting time of passengers in Personal Rapid Transit systems is proposed. Then, a simulation model that captures the main features of the Personal Rapid Transit system is developed. A decision support system which integrates several real time solution strategies as well as a simulation module is proposed. Our dispatching strategies are evaluated and compared based on our simulation model. The efficiency of our method is tested through extensive test studies.

  14. Optimizing Performance of at-grade Intersection with Bus Rapid Transit Corridor and Heterogeneous Traffic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hemant Kumar Sharma

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Bus Rapid Transit (BRT has emerged as a preferred mode of public transport in various countries all over the world for its cost effectiveness in construction as well as in operation and maintenance. The rapid transit feature of BRT is seen as a solution to many traffic problems in these countries. However, in developing countries like India, the right -of-way for most of the roads is restricted and traffic is heterogeneous in nature. Provision of BRT in existing right -of-way reduces the capacity available for other motorized traffic. As the buses travel with a certain frequency on dedicated bus- ways, the dedicated corridor remains unused for most of the period when other traffic on motorized vehicle (MV lanes suffers from congestion. The problem gets severe at intersections. However, if buses are operated in mixed traffic it is no more rapid transit. Hence, a solution is required to address this problem and optimize the performance of traffic as a whole. This paper presents the effect if dedicated bus-ways end at a reasonable distance before the stop line at a busy signalized at-grade intersection, and bus lanes (beyond that are made available to all the motorized vehicular traffic (heterogeneous traffic at intersection. The performance evaluation is done in terms of average queue length, maximum queue length, average delay time per vehicle, vehicle throughput, average speed in network and emission of Carbon monoxide CO, mono-nitrogen oxides NOx and Volatile organic compounds (VOC. It is observed that availability of bus lanes to other motorized traffic for a reasonable distance before intersection considerably reduces the average queue length, maximum queue length, average delay time per vehicle and emission per vehicle, while there is an increase in vehicle throughput and average speed of all the vehicles in the network. Thus it results in reduction of congestion and performance enhancement of at-grade intersections and network. Results of

  15. A high-resolution chronology of rapid forest transitions following polynesian arrival in New Zealand.

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    David B McWethy

    Full Text Available Human-caused forest transitions are documented worldwide, especially during periods when land use by dense agriculturally-based populations intensified. However, the rate at which prehistoric human activities led to permanent deforestation is poorly resolved. In the South Island, New Zealand, the arrival of Polynesians c. 750 years ago resulted in dramatic forest loss and conversion of nearly half of native forests to open vegetation. This transformation, termed the Initial Burning Period, is documented in pollen and charcoal records, but its speed has been poorly constrained. High-resolution chronologies developed with a series of AMS radiocarbon dates from two lake sediment cores suggest the shift from forest to shrubland occurred within decades rather than centuries at drier sites. We examine two sites representing extreme examples of the magnitude of human impacts: a drier site that was inherently more vulnerable to human-set fires and a wetter, less burnable site. The astonishing rate of deforestation at the hands of small transient populations resulted from the intrinsic vulnerability of the native flora to fire and from positive feedbacks in post-fire vegetation recovery that increased landscape flammability. Spatially targeting burning in highly-flammable seral vegetation in forests rarely experiencing fire was sufficient to create an alternate fire-prone stable state. The New Zealand example illustrates how seemingly stable forest ecosystems can experience rapid and permanent conversions. Forest loss in New Zealand is among the fastest ecological transitions documented in the Holocene; yet equally rapid transitions can be expected in present-day regions wherever positive feedbacks support alternate fire-inhibiting, fire-prone stable states.

  16. A high-resolution chronology of rapid forest transitions following polynesian arrival in New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McWethy, David B; Wilmshurst, Janet M; Whitlock, Cathy; Wood, Jamie R; McGlone, Matt S

    2014-01-01

    Human-caused forest transitions are documented worldwide, especially during periods when land use by dense agriculturally-based populations intensified. However, the rate at which prehistoric human activities led to permanent deforestation is poorly resolved. In the South Island, New Zealand, the arrival of Polynesians c. 750 years ago resulted in dramatic forest loss and conversion of nearly half of native forests to open vegetation. This transformation, termed the Initial Burning Period, is documented in pollen and charcoal records, but its speed has been poorly constrained. High-resolution chronologies developed with a series of AMS radiocarbon dates from two lake sediment cores suggest the shift from forest to shrubland occurred within decades rather than centuries at drier sites. We examine two sites representing extreme examples of the magnitude of human impacts: a drier site that was inherently more vulnerable to human-set fires and a wetter, less burnable site. The astonishing rate of deforestation at the hands of small transient populations resulted from the intrinsic vulnerability of the native flora to fire and from positive feedbacks in post-fire vegetation recovery that increased landscape flammability. Spatially targeting burning in highly-flammable seral vegetation in forests rarely experiencing fire was sufficient to create an alternate fire-prone stable state. The New Zealand example illustrates how seemingly stable forest ecosystems can experience rapid and permanent conversions. Forest loss in New Zealand is among the fastest ecological transitions documented in the Holocene; yet equally rapid transitions can be expected in present-day regions wherever positive feedbacks support alternate fire-inhibiting, fire-prone stable states.

  17. Stratification by Genetic and Demographic Characteristics Improves Diagnostic Accuracy of Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarkers in Rapidly Progressive Dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karch, André; Llorens, Franc; Schmitz, Matthias; Arora, Amandeep Singh; Zafar, Saima; Lange, Peter; Schmidt, Christian; Zerr, Inga

    2016-10-18

    Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers are routinely used for the differential diagnosis of rapidly progressive dementia, but are also affected by patients' characteristics. To assess if stratification by age, sex, and genetic risk factors improves the accuracy of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers in patients with rapidly progressive dementia. 1,538 individuals with sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD), 173 with classic Alzheimer's disease (cAD), 37 with rapidly progressive Alzheimer's disease (rpAD), and 589 without signs of dementia were included in this retrospective diagnostic study. The effect of age, sex, PRNP codon 129, and APOE genotype on CSF levels of tau, p-tau, Aβ1-42, and Aβ1-40 values measured at time of diagnostic work-up was assessed. Tau was a better marker for the differentiation of CJD and rpAD in older (AUC:0.97; 95% CI:0.96-1.00) than in younger (AUC:0.91; 95% CI:0.87-0.94) patients as tau levels increased with age in CJD patients, but not in rpAD patients. PRNP codon 129 and APOE genotype had complex effects on biomarkers in all diseases, making stratification by genotype a powerful tool. In females (AUC:0.78; 95% CI:0.65-0.91) and patients older than 70 (AUC:0.78; 95% CI:0.62-0.93), tau was able to differentiate with moderate accuracy between cAD and rpAD patients. Implementation of stratum-specific reference ranges improves the diagnostic accuracy of CSF biomarkers for the differential diagnosis of rapidly progressive dementia. Diagnostic criteria developed for this setting have to take this into account.

  18. Demographic Dividends Revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey G. Williamson

    2013-01-01

    This paper revisits demographic dividend issues after almost 2 decades of debate. In 1998, David Bloom and I used a convergence model to estimate the impact of demographic-transition-driven age structure effects and calculated what the literature has come to call the “demographic dividend.” These early estimates seem to be similar to those coming from more recent overlapping generation models, when properly estimated. Research has shown that the demographic dividend is not simply a labor part...

  19. Rapid microwave-assisted preparation of binary and ternary transition metal sulfide compounds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Butala, Megan M.; Perez, Minue A.; Arnon, Shiri; Göbel, Claudia; Preefer, Molleigh B.; Seshadri, Ram

    2017-12-01

    Transition metal chalcogenides are of interest for energy applications, including energy generation in photoelectrochemical cells and as electrodes for next-generation electrochemical energy storage. Synthetic routes for such chalcogenides typically involve extended heating at elevated temperatures for multiple weeks. We demonstrate here the feasibility of rapidly preparing select sulfide compounds in a matter of minutes, rather than weeks, using microwave-assisted heating in domestic microwaves. We report the preparations of phase pure FeS2, CoS2, and solid solutions thereof from the elements with only 40 min of heating. Conventional furnace and rapid microwave preparations of CuTi2S4 both result in a majority of the targeted phase, even with the significantly shorter heating time of 40 min for microwave methods relative to 12 days using a conventional furnace. The preparations we describe for these compounds can be extended to related structures and chemistries and thus enable rapid screening of the properties and performance of various compositions of interest for electronic, optical, and electrochemical applications.

  20. Kinetics of the B1-B2 phase transition in KCl under rapid compression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chuanlong; Smith, Jesse S.; Sinogeikin, Stanislav V.; Park, Changyong; Kono, Yoshio; Kenney-Benson, Curtis; Rod, Eric; Shen, Guoyin

    2016-01-01

    Kinetics of the B1-B2 phase transition in KCl has been investigated under various compression rates (0.03-13.5 GPa/s) in a dynamic diamond anvil cell using time-resolved x-ray diffraction and fast imaging. Our experimental data show that the volume fraction across the transition generally gives sigmoidal curves as a function of pressure during rapid compression. Based upon classical nucleation and growth theories (Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov theories), we propose a model that is applicable for studying kinetics for the compression rates studied. The fit of the experimental volume fraction as a function of pressure provides information on effective activation energy and average activation volume at a given compression rate. The resulting parameters are successfully used for interpreting several experimental observables that are compression-rate dependent, such as the transition time, grain size, and over-pressurization. The effective activation energy (Qeff) is found to decrease linearly with the logarithm of compression rate. When Qeff is applied to the Arrhenius equation, this relationship can be used to interpret the experimentally observed linear relationship between the logarithm of the transition time and logarithm of the compression rates. The decrease of Qeff with increasing compression rate results in the decrease of the nucleation rate, which is qualitatively in agreement with the observed change of the grain size with compression rate. The observed over-pressurization is also well explained by the model when an exponential relationship between the average activation volume and the compression rate is assumed.

  1. The Rapid Transit System That Achieves Higher Performance with Lower Life-Cycle Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sone, Satoru; Takagi, Ryo

    In the age of traction system made of inverter and ac traction motors, distributed traction system with pure electric brake of regenerative mode has been recognised very advantageous. This paper proposes a new system as the lowest life-cycle cost system for high performance rapid transit, a new architecture and optimum parameters of power feeding system, and a new running method of trains. In Japan, these components of this proposal, i.e. pure electric brake and various countermeasures of reducing loss of regeneration have been already popular but not as yet the new running method for better utilisation of the equipment and for lower life-cycle cost. One example of what are proposed in this paper will be made as Tsukuba Express, which is under construction as the most modern commuter railway in Greater Tokyo area.

  2. Inequality in mortality in Vietnam during a period of rapid transition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granlund, David; Chuc, Nguyen T; Phuc, Ho D; Lindholm, Lars

    2010-01-01

    Vietnam has experienced rapid economic growth following the transition, which began in the mid 1980s, from a planned agriculture based economy to a more market orientated one. In this paper, the associations between socioeconomic variables and mortality for 41,000 adults in Northern Vietnam followed from January 1999 to March 2008 are estimated using Cox's proportionally hazard models. Also, we use decomposition techniques to investigate the relative importance of socioeconomic factors for explaining inequality in age-standardized mortality risk. The results confirm previously found negative associations between mortality and income and education, for both men and women. We also found that marital status, at least for men, explain a large and growing part of the inequality. Finally, estimation results for relative education variables suggest that there exist positive spillover effects of education, meaning that higher education of one's neighbors or spouse might reduce ones mortality risk. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. A STUDY ON THE INTRODUCTION OF BUS RAPID TRANSIT SYSTEM IN ASIAN DEVELOPING CITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thaned SATIENNAM

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Bus Rapid Transit (BRT has increasingly become an attractive urban transit alternative in many Asian developing cities due to its cost-effective and flexible implementation. However, it still seems to be difficult to introduce BRT to these cities because almost all of their city structures have been developed under solely a road transport development city plan and weakness of land use control gives rise to many problems, such as urban sprawl, traffic congestion, and air pollution. The purpose of this study was to introduce several strategies to support BRT implementation in Asian developing cities, such as a strategy to appropriately integrate the paratransit system into BRT system as being a feeder along a BRT corridor to supply demand. These proposed strategies were evaluated by applying demand forecasting and emission models to the BRT project plan of Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA in Thailand. It was demonstrated that the proposed strategies could effectively improve the BRT ridership, traffic conditions, and air pollution emission of the entire system in Bangkok. This study could be further extended to include strategy recommendation if a BRT system were to be introduced to other Asian developing cities.

  4. A rapid microwave-assisted solvothermal approach to lower-valent transition metal oxides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moorhead-Rosenberg, Zachary; Harrison, Katharine L; Turner, Travis; Manthiram, Arumugam

    2013-11-18

    A green, rapid microwave-assisted solvothermal process using tetraethylene glycol (TEG) as a reducing agent has been explored as a soft-chemistry route for the preparation of various lower-valent transition metal oxides. To demonstrate the feasibility of the approach, lower-valent binary oxides such as V4O9, Mn3O4 or MnO, CoO, and Cu2O have been obtained within a short reaction time of 30 min by reducing, respectively, V2O5, MnO2, Co3O4, and CuO with TEG at LaCoO3, LaNiO3, and La4Ni3O10. The oxidation state of the transition metal ions and the oxygen content in these ternary oxides could be tuned by precisely controlling the reaction temperatures from 160 to 300 °C. The products have been characterized by X-ray powder diffraction and iodometric titration. The versatility of this novel technique is demonstrated by the facile synthesis of V4O9, which has only been produced recently in single-phase form.

  5. SURVEY DESIGN TO GRASP AND COMPARE USER'S ATTITUDES ON BUS RAPID TRANSIT (BRT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thillaiampalam SIVAKUMAR

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In mitigating urban transportation problems and providing a sustainable transit system, rail-based systems have become popular. While rail-based systems are welcome in many developed countries, it is impractical for cities in developing countries due to the high cost of system building and operation. Thus, a staged or incremental adjustment towards fixed guide way transit implementation of greater interest to many agencies today, and these days it has started developing in terms of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT. As it is very new to developing cities, it is a challenge to get the users to understand the system and to grasp their attitude. Besides, there are many other general issues like literacy, lack of a sample frame etc. Survey design needs to be tuned carefully for these cities to obtain a resonant output. Concerning all these problems, a hypothetical questionnaire survey such as Stated Preference (SP has become popular. This study conducted a survey on BRT implementation with SP as a hypothetical tool at a selected corridor in Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka. The main objectives were to identify questionnaire design(media effects, literacy of users, segmental variation, and the important variable(s. In this survey design, system explanation has been set in two slightly different ways (media: TEXT ∼ IMAGE for comparison and it was found that even a slight difference on design affected the users' response considerably. Income level could not be predicted directly, but car ownership was found to be a good predictor, it was found to be an important variable and it showed a correlation with literacy.

  6. Does rapid urbanization aggravate health disparities? Reflections on the epidemiological transition in Pune, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mareike Kroll

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Rapid urbanization in low- and middle-income countries reinforces risk and epidemiological transition in urban societies, which are characterized by high socioeconomic gradients. Limited availability of disaggregated morbidity data in these settings impedes research on epidemiological profiles of different population subgroups. Objective: The study aimed to analyze the epidemiological transition in the emerging megacity of Pune with respect to changing morbidity and mortality patterns, also taking into consideration health disparities among different socioeconomic groups. Design: A mixed-methods approach was used, comprising secondary analysis of mortality data, a survey among 900 households in six neighborhoods with different socioeconomic profiles, 46 in-depth interviews with laypeople, and expert interviews with 37 health care providers and 22 other health care workers. Results: The mortality data account for an epidemiological transition with an increasing number of deaths due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs in Pune. The share of deaths due to infectious and parasitic diseases remained nearly constant, though the cause of deaths changed considerably within this group. The survey data and expert interviews indicated a slightly higher prevalence of diabetes and hypertension among higher socioeconomic groups, but a higher incidence and more frequent complications and comorbidities in lower socioeconomic groups. Although the self-reported morbidity for malaria, gastroenteritis, and tuberculosis did not show a socioeconomic pattern, experts estimated the prevalence in lower socioeconomic groups to be higher, though all groups in Pune would be affected. Conclusions: The rising burden of NCDs among all socioeconomic groups and the concurrent persistence of communicable diseases pose a major challenge for public health. Improvement of urban health requires a stronger focus on health promotion and disease prevention for all

  7. The Evolving Demographic and Health Transition in Four Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Evidence from Four Sites in the INDEPTH Network of Longitudinal Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems.

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    Ayaga Bawah

    Full Text Available This paper contributes evidence documenting the continued decline in all-cause mortality and changes in the cause of death distribution over time in four developing country populations in Africa and Asia. We present levels and trends in age-specific mortality (all-cause and cause-specific from four demographic surveillance sites: Agincourt (South Africa, Navrongo (Ghana in Africa; Filabavi (Vietnam, Matlab (Bangladesh in Asia. We model mortality using discrete time event history analysis. This study illustrates how data from INDEPTH Network centers can provide a comparative, longitudinal examination of mortality patterns and the epidemiological transition. Health care systems need to be reconfigured to deal simultaneously with continuing challenges of communicable disease and increasing incidence of non-communicable diseases that require long-term care. In populations with endemic HIV, long-term care of HIV patients on ART will add to the chronic care needs of the community.

  8. The Evolving Demographic and Health Transition in Four Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Evidence from Four Sites in the INDEPTH Network of Longitudinal Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bawah, Ayaga; Houle, Brian; Alam, Nurul; Razzaque, Abdur; Streatfield, Peter Kim; Debpuur, Cornelius; Welaga, Paul; Oduro, Abraham; Hodgson, Abraham; Tollman, Stephen; Collinson, Mark; Kahn, Kathleen; Toan, Tran Khan; Phuc, Ho Dang; Chuc, Nguyen Thi Kim; Sankoh, Osman; Clark, Samuel J

    2016-01-01

    This paper contributes evidence documenting the continued decline in all-cause mortality and changes in the cause of death distribution over time in four developing country populations in Africa and Asia. We present levels and trends in age-specific mortality (all-cause and cause-specific) from four demographic surveillance sites: Agincourt (South Africa), Navrongo (Ghana) in Africa; Filabavi (Vietnam), Matlab (Bangladesh) in Asia. We model mortality using discrete time event history analysis. This study illustrates how data from INDEPTH Network centers can provide a comparative, longitudinal examination of mortality patterns and the epidemiological transition. Health care systems need to be reconfigured to deal simultaneously with continuing challenges of communicable disease and increasing incidence of non-communicable diseases that require long-term care. In populations with endemic HIV, long-term care of HIV patients on ART will add to the chronic care needs of the community.

  9. Rapid solid-state metathesis route to transition-metal doped titanias

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Nathaniel; Perera, Sujith; Gillan, Edward G., E-mail: edward-gillan@uiowa.edu

    2015-12-15

    Rapid solid-state metathesis (SSM) reactions are often short-lived highly exothermic reactions that yield a molten alkali halide salt that aids in product growth and crystallization. SSM reactions may also produce kinetically stabilized structures due to the short (seconds) reaction times. This report describes the investigation of rapid SSM reactions in the synthesis of transition-metal doped titanias (M–TiO{sub 2}). The dopant targeted compositions were ten mol percent and based on elemental analysis, many of the M–TiO{sub 2} samples were close to this targeted level. Based on surface analysis, some samples showed large enrichment in surface dopant content, particularly chromium and manganese doped samples. Due to the highly exothermic nature of these reactions, rutile structured TiO{sub 2} was observed in all cases. The M–TiO{sub 2} samples are visible colored and show magnetic and optical properties consistent with the dopant in an oxide environment. UV and visible photocatalytic experiments with these visibly colored rutile M–TiO{sub 2} powders showed that many of them are strongly absorbent for methylene blue dye and degrade the dye under both UV and visible light illumination. This work may open up SSM reactions as an alternate non-thermodynamic reaction strategy for dopant incorporation into a wide range of oxide and non-oxides.

  10. Shaping travels and land use with bus rapid transit: a developed city’s visualisation with smartcard and census data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiangping Zhou

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Transit and land-use integration is regarded as one of the most important means of avoiding or reducing car dependence and urban sprawl, which are thought as major culprits of unsustainability. In developing countries, rail rapid transit could be too expensive to become the predominant component of their respective systems. However, bus rapid transit (BRT as one of the cheapest forms of mass transit is a better alternative for those countries. In developing countries, BRT has transformed numerous cities such as Curitiba, Brazil; Bogota, Columbia; and Guangzhou, China. Can BRT have the same transformative impacts for cities in developed countries as well? Can the impacts of BRT be visualized using the transit population? Given that few cities in developed countries have BRT and ridership data of BRT are not always available, the above questions have not been well addressed before. To answer these two questions, we analysed smartcard swipes over a five-day weekday period (11–15 March 2013 for Brisbane in Queensland, Australia, and reconstructed trip trajectories of those 255,887 transit riders. We found that BRT serves a significant percentage and number of travellers, thus shaping travel behaviour and ultimately land use – when transit ridership and rate of transit usage are used as indicators. This is a significant achievement in Australia, a country known for its car dependence and urban sprawl.

  11. Transit Reliability Information Program : Reliability Verification Demonstration Plan for Rapid Rail Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-08-01

    The Transit Reliability Information Program (TRIP) is a government-initiated program to assist the transit industry in satisfying its need for transit reliability information. TRIP provides this assistance through the operation of a national Data Ban...

  12. Status and future transition of rapid urbanizing landscape in central Western Ghats - CA based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bharath, S..; Rajan, K. S.; Ramachandra, T. V.

    2014-11-01

    The land use changes in forested landscape are highly complex and dynamic, affected by the natural, socio-economic, cultural, political and other factors. The remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) techniques coupled with multi-criteria evaluation functions such as Markov-cellular automata (CA-Markov) model helps in analysing intensity, extent and future forecasting of human activities affecting the terrestrial biosphere. Karwar taluk of Central Western Ghats in Karnataka state, India has seen rapid transitions in its forest cover due to various anthropogenic activities, primarily driven by major industrial activities. A study based on Landsat and IRS derived data along with CA-Markov method has helped in characterizing the patterns and trends of land use changes over a period of 2004-2013, expected transitions was predicted for a set of scenarios through 2013-2022. The analysis reveals the loss of pristine forest cover from 75.51% to 67.36% (1973 to 2013) and increase in agriculture land as well as built-up area of 8.65% (2013), causing impact on local flora and fauna. The other factors driving these changes are the aggregated level of demand for land, local and regional effects of land use activities such as deforestation, improper practices in expansion of agriculture and infrastructure development, deteriorating natural resources availability. The spatio temporal models helped in visualizing on-going changes apart from prediction of likely changes. The CA-Markov based analysis provides us insights into the localized changes impacting these regions and can be useful in developing appropriate mitigation management approaches based on the modelled future impacts. This necessitates immediate measures for minimizing the future impacts.

  13. KAJIAN AWAL SIMULASI KOMPUTER MODEL KEBIJAKAN PENENTUAN JUMLAH OPTIMAL ARMADA BUS RAPID TRANSIT (BRT SEMARANG

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wiwik Budiawan

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Keberadaan Bus Rapid Transit (BRT di Kota Semarang diharapkan dapat menjadi salah satu solusi akan permasalahan kemacetan, adanya BRT ini terutama pada trayek perjalanan koridor II, ternyata mendapatkan tanggapan positif dari masyarakat pengguna, terbukti dari meningkatnya permintaan yang terjadi dari tahun 2012 hingga 2013 yakni hampir menyentuh angka 90% dari tahun sebelumnya. Dari hasil pengamatan pada trayek perjalanan Koridor II yang telah dilakukan, ternyata diketahui bahwa pada beberapa shelter (halte terjadi permintaan yang cukup tinggi, dan akhirnya pada saat peak hour armada BRT tidak mampu menampung seluruh permintaan yang terjadi, sehingga mengakibatkan penumpang harus menunggu lebih lama untuk dilayani oleh armada tersebut. Hal tersebut memicu permasalahan baru yakni kurang optimalnya jumlah armada yang beroperasi dan juga jadwal antar keberangkatan armada yang kurang menyesuaikan kondisi ketika tingginya permintaan pada setiap halte. Adapun metode yang digunakan adalah dengan melakukan pendekatan sistem, yang selanjutnya melakukan pemodelan sistem transportasi dan simulasi computer yang terjadi pada rute perjalanan tersebut. Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah rancangan model simulasi dalam bentuk model matematis dan simulasi komputer. Variabel pengendali pada model matematis dan simulasi komputer adalah frekuensi waktu antar kedatangan armada BRT, sehingga diharapkan mengurangi panjang antrian penumpang. Kata kunci: sistem transportasi, pemodelan sistem, simulasi komputer.

  14. Characterizing rapid, activity-linked conformational transitions in proteins via sub-second hydrogen deuterium exchange mass spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resetca, Diana; Wilson, Derek J

    2013-11-01

    This review outlines the application of time-resolved electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (TRESI-MS) and hydrogen-deuterium exchange (HDX) to study rapid, activity-linked conformational transitions in proteins. The method is implemented on a microfluidic chip which incorporates all sample-handling steps required for a 'bottom-up' HDX workflow: a capillary mixer for sub-second HDX labeling, a static mixer for HDX quenching, a microreactor for rapid protein digestion, and on-chip electrospray. By combining short HDX labeling pulses with rapid digestion, this approach provides a detailed characterization of the structural transitions that occur during protein folding, ligand binding, post-translational modification and catalytic turnover in enzymes. This broad spectrum of applications in areas largely inaccessible to conventional techniques means that microfluidics-enabled TRESI-MS/HDX is a unique and powerful approach for investigating the dynamic basis of protein function. © 2013 FEBS.

  15. Urban Air Pollution in Taiwan before and after the Installation of a Mass Rapid Transit System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Pei-Hsiou; Wang, Gen-Shuh; Chen, Bing-Yu; Wan, Gwo-Hwa

    2016-09-01

    Urbanization causes air pollution in metropolitan areas, coupled with meteorological factors that affect air quality. Although previous studies focused on the relationships of urbanization, air pollution, and climate change in Western countries, this study evaluated long-term variations of air quality and meteorological factors in Taiwanese metropolitan areas (Taipei area, Taichung City, and Kaohsiung City) and a rural area (Hualien County) between 1993 and 2012. The influence of a mass rapid transit (MRT) system on air quality was also evaluated. Air pollutant concentrations and meteorology data were collected from Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (TEPA) air monitoring stations and Central Weather Bureau stations in the surveyed areas, respectively. Analyses indicate that levels of air pollution in metropolitan areas were greater than in the rural area. Kaohsiung City had the highest levels of O, SO, and particulate matter 2.5 or 10 µm in diameter (PM and PM). Clear downward trends for CO, NO, PM, PM, and especially SO concentrations were found in the surveyed areas, whereas O showed no decrease. Both O and PM concentrations showed similar bimodal seasonal distributions. Taiwan's air quality has improved significantly since 1993, indicating the effectiveness of promoting air pollution strategies and policies by the TEPA. Air pollution had an obvious improvement in Taipei area after the MRT system began operations in 1996. Because global climate may potentially affect urban air pollution in Taiwan, further study to clarify the mechanisms by which air pollution may affect human health and other biological effects is warranted. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  16. Particulate Matter Concentrations in San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) Train Stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newsome, L.; Macias, S.; Romero, N.; Lockett, N.; Polar, J.; Madrigal, C.; Lopez, F.; Sanchez, R.; Webster, D.; Torio, M.; Rios, V.; Marks-Block, T.; Toli, F.

    2012-12-01

    As part of a general effort to assess air quality in different regions of the San Francisco Bay Area, we collected Particulate Matter (PM) data within passenger train cars along multiple commuter train lines simultaneously during the summer and fall of 2012. We visited numerous Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system stations, including those along the Fremont, Pittsburg and SF/Daly City lines. In conducting this study we used a Dustrak 8530 aerosol sensor equipped with a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver to measure PM size 2.5 μm concentrations every second. Of all the BART stations we visited, average PM concentration levels at the Embarcadero station in San Francisco were the highest during multiple visits, with a value of 104.95 μg/m3. We also noted that high levels of PM 2.5 were released when the cloth seats on the trains were struck, which resulted in significant, temporary increases of hazardous PM levels of up to 3000 μg/m3! Embarcadero station's high PM concentration correlates to past research in other underground train stations throughout the world, where PM produced through the abrasive interaction of train wheels and tracks or brake pads becomes trapped. Compared to levels measured at outdoor stations (average of 8.52μg/m3) and other underground stations, levels detected at the Embarcadero station are particularly alarming. We believe this is due to the fact that this station is located at one end of a long, underground and underwater transbay tunnel that connects the East San Francisco Bay area to San Francisco to the west. To reduce PM exposure risk to BART employees and passengers, we suggest increasing and/or installing filtration and ventilation systems, which should substantially reduce PM concentrations at Embarcadero station.

  17. Rapid synthesis of transition metal dichalcogenide-carbon aerogel composites for supercapacitor electrodes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Matthew J Crane; Matthew B Lim; Xuezhe Zhou; Peter J Pauzauskie

    2017-01-01

    Transition metal dichalcogenide (TMD) materials have recently demonstrated exceptional supercapacitor properties after conversion to a metallic phase, which increases the conductivity of the network...

  18. Rapid and controllable a-Si:H-to-nc-Si:H transition induced by a high-density plasma route

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, H. P.; Xu, M.; Xu, S.; Xu, L. X.; Ji, H.; Xiao, S. Q.; Feng, Y. Y.

    2017-09-01

    The low-temperature rapid solid phase crystallization route of amorphous silicon is fundamentally and technologically significant. Micrometer thick hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H) films were exposed to a low-frequency inductively coupled hydrogen plasma under a low substrate temperature of 300 °C. The plasma treated a-Si:H was completely crystallized within half an hour. The evolution of microstructures, optical and electric properties with respect to plasma exposure duration deterministically demonstrates that the present low-temperature rapid crystallization process enables the controllable phase transition from amorphous to nanocrystalline (nc) silicon. The crystallization mechanism is discussed in terms of the unique characteristics of low-frequency inductively coupled plasma (LFICP) and the LFICP-grown precursor a-Si:H film itself. The crucial role of hydrogen atoms in the phase transition is also discussed.

  19. Performance of the Priority Control Strategies for Bus Rapid Transit: Comparative Study from Scenario Microsimulation Using VISSIM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min Yang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Bus rapid transit (BRT has a great potential to improve the service level of transit system and has been implemented in many Chinese cities. However, the priority it can provide to buses has not been explored fully. Therefore, this study mainly investigated two advanced control strategies (signal priority using advanced detection and transit speed control. Signal priority using advanced detection is a strategy which detects one cycle ahead of buses’ arrival in order to adapt a more flexible control algorithm to provide signal priority for buses. Another is transit speed control, which provides priority at intersections for buses by controlling the speed of them and predicting their arrival at certain intersection. These two advanced strategies were modeled and evaluated using simulation software VISSIM and presented better performance than other three scenarios (base case, exclusive bus lane, and conventional transit signal priority. Only the eastbound direction would be researched as its traffic flow and bus volume are much larger than those of the other direction. Data used in this model was collected in Yingtan City. It is also shown that both the operation of BRT and the efficiency of private traffic can be much improved by applying the two strategies proposed above.

  20. Field Evaluation of Red-Coloured Hot Mix Asphalt Pavements for Bus Rapid Transit Lanes in Ontario, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingfan Liu

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Coloured pavements have been implemented by metropolitan areas to denote dedicated lanes for bus rapid transit to maintain a high level of safety. Transit benefits of these installations are well documented. However, field performance of various types of coloured pavement has not been investigated systematically, with questions not being answered. In collaboration with the Regional Municipality of York (ON, Canada where red pavement sections have been in operation for years for its bus rapid transit lanes, the Centre for Pavement and Transportation Technology at the University of Waterloo (Waterloo, ON, Canada assessed the performance of various types of red pavements including epoxy paint and red asphalt mixes. It was found that, with significant lower texture depth, epoxy paint surface has disadvantages to red asphalt pavement from a pavement texture and safety perspective. The red asphalt sections in this study were observed as lower yet compatible frictional levels to conventional black pavement. Various types of contamination onto the red pavement were observed during field survey. In addition, the ultraviolet radiation degraded the colour of red asphalt pavement over time and may make it less effective for lane designation. Long-term monitoring is recommended to evaluate the functional and structural performance of red asphalt pavement.

  1. Exploring synergies between transit investment and dense redevelopment: A scenario analysis in a rapidly urbanizing landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Like many urban areas around the world, Durham and Orange counties in North Carolina, USA are experiencing population growth and sprawl that is putting stress on the transportation system. Light rail and denser transit-oriented development are being considered as possible solutio...

  2. 76 FR 75994 - Homeless Emergency Assistance and Rapid Transition to Housing: Defining “Homeless”

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-05

    ... Homelessness Grant program. The HEARTH Act also codifies in law the Continuum of Care planning process, long a... emergency shelter and homelessness prevention activities and to add rapid rehousing activities. The new Rural Housing Stability program replaces the Rural Homelessness Grant program. The HEARTH Act also...

  3. Reducing crime through physical modification: Evaluating the use of situational crime prevention strategies in a rapid transit environment in British Columbia

    OpenAIRE

    Laurence, Courtney

    2010-01-01

    Situational crime prevention and crime prevention through environmental design are strategies that reduce criminal opportunities through modification of the physical environment. Although limited, evidence suggests that these strategies are successful at reducing crime that occurs in transit environments. The rapid transit system in Vancouver, British Columbia provides a unique opportunity for evaluation of situational prevention strategies as both control and experimental groups are availa...

  4. Gradual assembly of avian body plan culminated in rapid rates of evolution across the dinosaur-bird transition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brusatte, Stephen L; Lloyd, Graeme T; Wang, Steve C; Norell, Mark A

    2014-10-20

    The evolution of birds from theropod dinosaurs was one of the great evolutionary transitions in the history of life. The macroevolutionary tempo and mode of this transition is poorly studied, which is surprising because it may offer key insight into major questions in evolutionary biology, particularly whether the origins of evolutionary novelties or new ecological opportunities are associated with unusually elevated "bursts" of evolution. We present a comprehensive phylogeny placing birds within the context of theropod evolution and quantify rates of morphological evolution and changes in overall morphological disparity across the dinosaur-bird transition. Birds evolved significantly faster than other theropods, but they are indistinguishable from their closest relatives in morphospace. Our results demonstrate that the rise of birds was a complex process: birds are a continuum of millions of years of theropod evolution, and there was no great jump between nonbirds and birds in morphospace, but once the avian body plan was gradually assembled, birds experienced an early burst of rapid anatomical evolution. This suggests that high rates of morphological evolution after the development of a novel body plan may be a common feature of macroevolution, as first hypothesized by G.G. Simpson more than 60 years ago. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Rapid transition in the structure of a coral reef community: the effects of coral bleaching and physical disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostrander, G K; Armstrong, K M; Knobbe, E T; Gerace, D; Scully, E P

    2000-05-09

    Coral reef communities are in a state of change throughout their geographical range. Factors contributing to this change include bleaching (the loss of algal symbionts), storm damage, disease, and increasing abundance of macroalgae. An additional factor for Caribbean reefs is the aftereffects of the epizootic that reduced the abundance of the herbivorous sea urchin, Diadema antillarum. Although coral reef communities have undergone phase shifts, there are few studies that document the details of such transitions. We report the results of a 40-month study that documents changes in a Caribbean reef community affected by bleaching, hurricane damage, and an increasing abundance of macroalgae. The study site was in a relatively pristine area of the reef surrounding the island of San Salvador in the Bahamas. Ten transects were sampled every 3-9 months from November 1994 to February 1998. During this period, the corals experienced a massive bleaching event resulting in a significant decline in coral abundance. Algae, especially macroalgae, increased in abundance until they effectively dominated the substrate. The direct impact of Hurricane Lili in October 1996 did not alter the developing community structure and may have facilitated increasing algal abundance. The results of this study document the rapid transition of this reef community from one in which corals and algae were codominant to a community dominated by macroalgae. The relatively brief time period required for this transition illustrates the dynamic nature of reef communities.

  6. Shooting the Rapids: Navigating Transitions to Adaptive Governance of Social-Ecological Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Per Olsson

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The case studies of Kristianstads Vattenrike, Sweden; the Northern Highlands Lake District and the Everglades in the USA; the Mae Nam Ping Basin, Thailand; and the Goulburn-Broken Catchment, Australia, were compared to assess the outcome of different actions for transforming social-ecological systems (SESs. The transformations consisted of two phases, a preparation phase and a transition phase, linked by a window of opportunity. Key leaders and shadow networks can prepare a system for change by exploring alternative system configurations and developing strategies for choosing from among possible futures. Key leaders can recognize and use or create windows of opportunity and navigate transitions toward adaptive governance. Leadership functions include the ability to span scales of governance, orchestrate networks, integrate and communicate understanding, and reconcile different problem domains. Successful transformations rely on epistemic and shadow networks to provide novel ideas and ways of governing SESs. We conclude by listing some ð"„¬rules of thumb" that can help build leadership and networks for successful transformations toward adaptive governance of social-ecological systems.

  7. Rapid transition towards the Division of Labor via evolution of developmental plasticity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey Gavrilets

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available A crucial step in several major evolutionary transitions is the division of labor between components of the emerging higher-level evolutionary unit. Examples include the separation of germ and soma in simple multicellular organisms, appearance of multiple cell types and organs in more complex organisms, and emergence of casts in eusocial insects. How the division of labor was achieved in the face of selfishness of lower-level units is controversial. I present a simple mathematical model describing the evolutionary emergence of the division of labor via developmental plasticity starting with a colony of undifferentiated cells and ending with completely differentiated multicellular organisms. I explore how the plausibility and the dynamics of the division of labor depend on its fitness advantage, mutation rate, costs of developmental plasticity, and the colony size. The model shows that the transition to differentiated multicellularity, which has happened many times in the history of life, can be achieved relatively easily. My approach is expandable in a number of directions including the emergence of multiple cell types, complex organs, or casts of eusocial insects.

  8. Barrier Free Conditions of Mass Rapid Transit Stations in Hong Kong

    OpenAIRE

    OSAKAYA, Yoshiyuki; Aoyama, Takeshi; RATANAMART, Suphawadee

    2010-01-01

    In Hong Kong, it is estimated that aging will be rapidly going on after 2010. Increase of the elderly means increase of the disabled. In Hong Kong, there are 3 KCR lines(East Line, West Line and Ma On Shan Line) and 7 MTR lines(Kwun Tong Line, Tsuen Wan Line, Island Line, Tsueng Wan O Line,Tung Chung Line, Airport Line and Disneyland Line) in 2006. This study firstly made the actual conditions of barrier free at all 81 stations clear. It secondly made problems clear. It thirdly showed proposa...

  9. Behavioral and physiological changes during benthic-pelagic transition in the harmful alga, Heterosigma akashiwo: potential for rapid bloom formation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth D Tobin

    Full Text Available Many species of harmful algae transition between a motile, vegetative stage in the water column and a non-motile, resting stage in the sediments. Physiological and behavioral traits expressed during benthic-pelagic transition potentially regulate the timing, location and persistence of blooms. The roles of key physiological and behavioral traits involved in resting cell emergence and bloom formation were examined in two geographically distinct strains of the harmful alga, Heterosigma akashiwo. Physiological measures of cell viability, division and population growth, and cell fatty acid content were made using flow cytometry and gas chromatography - mass spectrometry techniques as cells transitioned between the benthic resting stage and the vegetative pelagic stage. Video-based tracking was used to quantify cell-level swimming behaviors. Data show increased temperature and light triggered rapid emergence from the resting stage and initiated cell swimming. Algal strains varied in important physiological and behavioral traits, including survivorship during life-stage transitions, population growth rates and swimming velocities. Collectively, these traits function as "population growth strategies" that can influence bloom formation. Many resting cells regained the up-swimming capacity necessary to cross an environmentally relevant halocline and the ability to aggregate in near-surface waters within hours after vegetative growth supporting conditions were restored. Using a heuristic model, we illustrate how strain-specific population growth strategies can govern the timescales over which H. akashiwo blooms form. Our findings highlight the need for identification and quantification of strain-specific physiological and behavioral traits to improve mechanistic understanding of bloom formation and successful bloom prediction.

  10. Performance Analysis of a Recycled Concrete Interfacial Transition Zone in a Rapid Carbonization Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gongbing Yue

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the characteristics of recycled concrete interface structures, a multi-interface reconstruction model was established. To study the microstructure evolution of the interfacial transition zone (ITZ during the carbonization process of recycled concrete, the microstructure characteristics of the ITZ of C30, C40, and C50 grade recycled concrete and the mortar matrix before and after carbonization were studied through the microhardness tester and SEM. The results show that the microhardness values of the ITZ and the mortar matrix are obviously increased and that the width of the ITZ decreases, while the ITZ performance of the C50 grade recycled concrete is not significantly changed. The ITZ exhibits a large amount of granular CaCO3 after carbonization, the pores are refined, and microcracks are generated. Overall, there are significant differences in the microstructures between the ITZ and the mortar matrix before and after carbonization.

  11. Demographic changes and nationalism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vishnevskii, A G

    1995-01-01

    This article examines the different characteristics of the many peoples inhabiting what used to be the Soviet Union and communist Eastern Europe, including Yugoslavia. The differences among these nationalities, or ethnic groups, are illustrated using the example of demographic modernization, showing how different peoples have or have not passed through the demographic transition process. The author looks at ethnic differences in mortality, fertility, natural increase, and migration, as well as economic and social inequalities among ethnic groups. The prospects for inter-ethnic conflict are assessed.

  12. Rapid detection of transition metals in welding fumes using paper-based analytical devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cate, David M; Nanthasurasak, Pavisara; Riwkulkajorn, Pornpak; L'Orange, Christian; Henry, Charles S; Volckens, John

    2014-05-01

    Metals in particulate matter (PM) are considered a driving factor for many pathologies. Despite the hazards associated with particulate metals, personal exposures for at-risk workers are rarely assessed due to the cost and effort associated with monitoring. As a result, routine exposure assessments are performed for only a small fraction of the exposed workforce. The objective of this research was to evaluate a relatively new technology, microfluidic paper-based analytical devices (µPADs), for measuring the metals content in welding fumes. Fumes from three common welding techniques (shielded metal arc, metal inert gas, and tungsten inert gas welding) were sampled in two welding shops. Concentrations of acid-extractable Fe, Cu, Ni, and Cr were measured and independently verified using inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES). Results from the µPAD sensors agreed well with ICP-OES analysis; the two methods gave statistically similar results in >80% of the samples analyzed. Analytical costs for the µPAD technique were ~50 times lower than market-rate costs with ICP-OES. Further, the µPAD method was capable of providing same-day results (as opposed several weeks for ICP laboratory analysis). Results of this work suggest that µPAD sensors are a viable, yet inexpensive alternative to traditional analytic methods for transition metals in welding fume PM. These sensors have potential to enable substantially higher levels of hazard surveillance for a given resource cost, especially in resource-limited environments.

  13. Aquaculture: a rapidly growing and significant source of sustainable food? Status, transitions and potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, D C; Newton, R W; Beveridge, M C M

    2016-08-01

    The status and potential of aquaculture is considered as part of a broader food landscape of wild aquatic and terrestrial food sources. The rationale and resource base required for the development of aquaculture are considered in the context of broader societal development, cultural preferences and human needs. Attention is drawn to the uneven development and current importance of aquaculture globally as well as its considerable heterogeneity of form and function compared with established terrestrial livestock production. The recent drivers of growth in demand and production are examined and the persistent linkages between exploitation of wild stocks, full life cycle culture and the various intermediate forms explored. An emergent trend for sourcing aquaculture feeds from alternatives to marine ingredients is described and the implications for the sector with rapidly growing feed needs discussed. The rise of non-conventional and innovative feed ingredients, often shared with terrestrial livestock, are considered, including aquaculture itself becoming a major source of marine ingredients. The implications for the continued expected growth of aquaculture are set in the context of sustainable intensification, with the challenges that conventional intensification and emergent integration within, and between, value chains explored. The review concludes with a consideration of the implications for dependent livelihoods and projections for various futures based on limited resources but growing demand.

  14. A Plasma-Assisted Route to the Rapid Preparation of Transition-Metal Phosphides for Energy Conversion and Storage

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Hanfeng

    2017-06-06

    Transition-metal phosphides (TMPs) are important materials that have been widely used in catalysis, supercapacitors, batteries, sensors, light-emitting diodes, and magnets. The physical and chemical structure of a metal phosphide varies with the method of preparation as the electronic, catalytic, and magnetic properties of the metal phosphides strongly depend on their synthesis routes. Commonly practiced processes such as solid-state synthesis and ball milling have proven to be reliable routes to prepare TMPs but they generally require high temperature and long reaction time. Here, a recently developed plasma-assisted conversion route for the preparation of TMPs is reviewed, along with their applications in energy conversion and storage, including water oxidation electrocatalysis, sodium-ion batteries, and supercapacitors. The plasma-assisted synthetic route should open up a new avenue to prepare TMPs with tailored structure and morphology for various applications. In fact, the process may be further extended to the synthesis of a wide range of transition-metal compounds such as borides and fluorides at low temperature and in a rapid manner.

  15. A Functional Thinking Approach to the Design of Future Transportation Systems: Taxis as a Proxy for Personal Rapid Transit in South Korea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thompson, Mary Kathryn; Bae, Hyun Hye

    2014-01-01

    For over 50 years, personal rapid transit (PRT) has been viewed as one of the most promising ways to provide sustainable, economical, and convenient transportation while reducing reliance on personal automobiles. However, despite concerted efforts around the world, the promise of PRT has yet...... taxis can be used as an alternative embodiment of personal rapid transit and can serve as a test bed to support PRT-related design, research, and development. The paper then explores the transportation patterns and characteristics of cities in South Korea and the United States in order to determine...... the conditions necessary to create and maintain a PRT-like taxi system and to demonstrate the differences between ‘normal’ and PRT-like taxi systems. Finally, the future of personal rapid transit as a functional and physical transportation paradigm is discussed....

  16. Growing City and Rapid Land Use Transition: Assessing Multiple Hazards and Risks in the Pokhara Valley, Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhagawat Rimal

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Pokhara is one of the most naturally beautiful cities in the world with a unique geological setting. This important tourist city is under intense pressure from rapid urbanization and population growth. Multiple hazards and risks are rapidly increasing in Pokhara due to unsustainable land use practices, particularly the increase in built-up areas. This study examines the relationship among urbanization, land use/land cover dynamics and multiple hazard and risk analysis of the Pokhara valley from 1990 to 2013. We investigate some of the active hazards, such as floods, landslides, fire, sinkholes, land subsidence and earthquakes, and prepare an integrated multiple hazard risk map indicating the highly vulnerable zones. Land use and land cover maps from 1990 and 2013 from Landsat images (30 m resolution have been prepared and analyzed for the spatial dynamics of urbanization and the transition of land use and land cover. In the 23-year period, the built-up area more than doubled from 24.03 km² to 54.20 km². Although the landscape in the urban, peri-urban and rural areas appears to be fragmented, different drivers play pivotal roles in landscape change in these areas. The results provide substantial information for establishing innovative action plans for disaster risk management in the valley. Recommendations are made for the most suitable places for future urban expansion in the valley. This study is important for raising awareness among policy makers and other public officials to include multiple hazard risk mitigation in land use policies and plans. Establishing connections between urban expansions, escalating population growth and multiple hazards and risk assessment will also improve in modelling the latent impact of future catastrophes and emergency preparedness.

  17. Demographic anthropology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, N

    1986-01-01

    In this review of the literature, the author focuses on the changes in demographic anthropology, generally since 1970, with greater emphasis on the literature since 1980. 20 years ago the literature on population in the field of anthropology was sparse, inconsistent, and frequently full of factual and logical errors. Part of the problem was that anthropologists did not apply demographic techniques to their research. In the 1980s, communication between anthropology and demography has increased significantly. Methodological advances in demography have helped anthropologists overcome problems in describing and estimating parameters of populations. New techniques include estimations of demographic parameters from the close study of kinship, computer simulations, model life tables, and techniques in paleodemography. The author discusses microanalysis and includes examples of some of the best known and most detailed quantitative studies of small populations from the 1970s and 1980s. The author then reviews macrostudies where attention is directed to the problems of boundedness of small populations and their rates of change and influence from outside over time, including 1) basic research on concepts; 2) primate population and social organization; 3) paleodemography; 4) population problems in huter-gatherer studies; 5) population problems in archeology; 6) the origin of agriculture; and 7) diet and population. Next the author discusses theoretical overviews of 3 areas of demography: 1) population and demography, 2) population and social structure, and 3) population and cultural evolution. Implications for future research include 1) creating a standard methodology for studying populations; 2) creating a clear vocabulary; 3) publishing in high quality journals; 4) establishing a data bank to encourage secondary analysis of materials and their use in comparative studies; 5) reconsidering and republishing previous research; 6) saving raw data, producing descriptive tables

  18. Using Modern Statistical Methods to Analyze Demographics of Kansas ABE/GED Students Who Transition to Community or Technical College Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zacharakis, Jeff; Wang, Haiyan; Patterson, Margaret Becker; Andersen, Lori

    2015-01-01

    This research analyzed linked high-quality state data from K-12, adult education, and postsecondary state datasets in order to better understand the association between student demographics and successful completion of a postsecondary program. Due to the relatively small sample size compared to the large number of features, we analyzed the data…

  19. Potential for modal shift by passenger car and motorcycle users towards Bus Rapid Transit (BRT in an Asian developing city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thaned Satiennam

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Many developing Asian cities consider a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT system in their public transport planning because of its advantages, offering lower investment cost and flexible implementation over rail systems. The objective of this research is to assess the potential of BRT for attracting travelers from passenger cars and motorcycles. Three different BRT systems were designed for the main corridor passing through Khon Kaen City in Thailand. The study developed modal split models for predicting the choices of passenger car users and motorcycle users. The models were developed based on a Stated Preference (SP survey. It was found that BRT could attract significantly private vehicle users to change mode choice. The proportion of motorcycle users shifting is higher than passenger car users. However, the majority of private vehicle users still prefer their own private vehicles. Both travel time and travel cost affects the mode choice, in which travel time has a highly significant effect on passenger car users' choice of BRT, but travel cost has a highly significant effect on motorcyclists' choice. Some socio-economic factors, including gender, age, driving license holding and residence location also influence the choice of BRT.

  20. The bus rapid transit system: A service quality dimension of commuter uptake in Cape Town, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prince D. Ugo

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluated commuter uptake of the bus rapid transit (BRT system in Cape Town,South Africa. As a stated preference survey was not carried out prior to the launch of the new BRT system in the City of Cape Town, it became difficult to assess commuters’ preferences,which would have provided City policymakers and planners with an understanding of customer satisfaction of the proposed bus service. The commuting trend of the BRT system in the City indicates that tickets sales and utilisation by commuters is gradually picking up, but one would have expected high commuter engagement in terms of the modernity profile of the BRT system. This study investigated commuters’ (n = 260 satisfaction levels with 30 service quality variables on a self-rated questionnaire, using quantitative research methodology.The study result showed that passengers were not satisfied with the transport fare and the availability or accessibility of ticket sales outlets. In the context of this study, this result implies that the ‘responsiveness and affordability’ variable of the service quality dimensions should be an area of interest and review to City of Cape Town policymakers and planners. Service quality trends in public transport were also highlighted.

  1. Parent experiences of variations in service delivery of Rapid Syllable Transition (ReST) treatment for childhood apraxia of speech.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Donna C; McCabe, Patricia; Ballard, Kirrie J; Bricker-Katz, Geraldine

    2017-05-23

    To understand parents' perceptions of Rapid Syllable Transition (ReST) treatment and their experience of either telehealth or combined parent-clinician delivery of speech-language pathology. Thematic analyses of semi-structured interviews were conducted with 10 parents (5 telehealth, 5 parent-clinician) after their child completed 12 sessions of ReST treatment. Three themes were unique to telehealth: "telehealth was a million times easier," "technical problems weren't deal breakers," and "telehealth therapy has different boundaries." Three themes were unique to parent-clinician delivery: "therapy is something to get over and done with," "I wasn't very good at doing therapy," and "my child doesn't like me as his therapist." Both groups had themes related to the significance of childhood apraxia of speech, the importance of specialist treatment, and ReST being a "different way forward." Speech-language pathologists should carefully consider the suitability of caregiver-provided ReST treatment, and increase telehealth delivery of ReST treatment.

  2. Is there a Demographic Time-bomb?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greve, Bent

    2006-01-01

    The article discuss whether the demographic transition in Europe will have any impact on the future of the European welfare states......The article discuss whether the demographic transition in Europe will have any impact on the future of the European welfare states...

  3. India's demographic change: opportunities and challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, K S

    2011-07-29

    This paper discusses emerging demographic patterns and its opportunities and challenges for India. It investigates the specificities in the demographic transition in terms of various demographic parameters and the lack of homogeneity in the transition across states in the country. It presents some opportunities that can arise from having demographic changes, particularly the demographic dividend and interstate migration to overcome labor shortage in some parts. At the same time, there are serious challenges in the form of enhancing human capital development, addressing the issue of skewed sex ratio, and the possible rise in social and political unrest and conflict.

  4. Planning ahead for livable communities along the Powell–Division Bus Rapid Transit : neighborhood conditions and change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-07-04

    New transit investments can be a double-edged sword for disadvantaged communities (e.g., those included in environmental justice and Title VI protected classes). Transit investments improve communities mobility and access, and may improve health w...

  5. Human annoyance, acceptability and concern as responses to vibration from the construction of Light Rapid Transit lines in residential environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wong-McSweeney, D., E-mail: D.B.C.WongMcSweeney@salford.ac.uk [Acoustics Research Centre, University of Salford, Salford M5 4TW (United Kingdom); Woodcock, J.S.; Peris, E.; Waddington, D.C.; Moorhouse, A.T. [Acoustics Research Centre, University of Salford, Salford M5 4TW (United Kingdom); Redel-Macías, M.D. [Dep. Rural Engineering Campus de Rabanales, University of Córdoba, Córdoba (Spain)

    2016-10-15

    The aim of this paper is to investigate the use of different self-reported measures for assessing the human response to environmental vibration from the construction of an urban LRT (Light Rapid Transit) system. The human response to environmental stressors such as vibration and noise is often expressed in terms of exposure–response relationships that describe annoyance as a function of the magnitude of the vibration. These relationships are often the basis of noise and vibration policy and the setting of limit values. This paper examines measures other than annoyance by expressing exposure–response relationships for vibration in terms of self-reported concern about property damage and acceptability. The exposure–response relationships for concern about property damage and for acceptability are then compared with those for annoyance. It is shown that concern about property damage occurs at vibration levels well below those where there is any risk of damage. Earlier research indicated that concern for damage is an important moderator of the annoyance induced. Acceptability, on the other hand, might be influenced by both annoyance and concern, as well as by other considerations. It is concluded that exposure–response relationships expressing acceptability as a function of vibration exposure could usefully complement existing relationships for annoyance in future policy decisions regarding environmental vibration. The results presented in this paper are derived from data collected through a socio-vibration survey (N = 321) conducted for the construction of an urban LRT in the United Kingdom. - Highlights: • The human response to construction vibration is assessed in residential environments. • Exposure–response relationships are generated based on survey and semi-empirical vibration estimation. • Annoyance, concern and acceptability are compared as response measures. • Concern and acceptability are viable measures complementing annoyance.

  6. Rapid health transition in China, 1990-2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Gonghuan; Wang, Yu; Zeng, Yixin; Gao, George F; Liang, Xiaofeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Wan, Xia; Yu, Shicheng; Jiang, Yuhong; Naghavi, Mohsen; Vos, Theo; Wang, Haidong; Lopez, Alan D; Murray, Christopher J L

    2013-06-08

    China has undergone rapid demographic and epidemiological changes in the past few decades, including striking declines in fertility and child mortality and increases in life expectancy at birth. Popular discontent with the health system has led to major reforms. To help inform these reforms, we did a comprehensive assessment of disease burden in China, how it changed between 1990 and 2010, and how China's health burden compares with other nations. We used results of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) for 1990 and 2010 for China and 18 other countries in the G20 to assess rates and trends in mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We present results for 231 diseases and injuries and for 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors relevant to China. We assessed relative performance of China against G20 countries (significantly better, worse, or indistinguishable from the G20 mean) with age-standardised rates and 95% uncertainty intervals. The leading causes of death in China in 2010 were stroke (1·7 million deaths, 95% UI 1·5-1·8 million), ischaemic heart disease (948,700 deaths, 774,500-1,024,600), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (934,000 deaths, 846,600-1,032,300). Age-standardised YLLs in China were lower in 2010 than all emerging economies in the G20, and only slightly higher than noted in the USA. China had the lowest age-standardised YLD rate in the G20 in 2010. China also ranked tenth (95% UI eighth to tenth) for HALE and 12th (11th to 13th) for life expectancy. YLLs from neonatal causes, infectious diseases, and injuries in children declined substantially between 1990 and 2010. Mental and behavioural disorders, substance use disorders, and musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for almost half of all YLDs. The fraction of DALYs from YLDs rose from 28·1% (95% UI 24·2-32·5

  7. Health co-benefits in mortality avoidance from implementation of the mass rapid transit (MRT) system in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwan, Soo Chen; Tainio, Marko; Woodcock, James; Hashim, Jamal Hisham

    2016-03-01

    The mass rapid transit (MRT) is the largest transport infrastructure project under the national key economic area (NKEA) in Malaysia. As urban rail is anticipated to be the future spine of public transport network in the Greater Kuala Lumpur city, it is important to mainstream climate change mitigation and public health benefits in the local transport development. This study quantifies the health co-benefits in terms of mortality among the urbanites when the first line of the 150 km MRT system in Kuala Lumpur commences by 2017. Using comparative health risk assessment, we estimated the potential health co-benefits from the establishment of the MRT system. We estimated the reduced CO2 emissions and air pollution (PM2.5) exposure reduction among the general population from the reduced use of motorized vehicles. Mortality avoided from traffic incidents involving motorcycles and passenger cars, and from increased physical activity from walking while using the MRT system was also estimated. A total of 363,130 tonnes of CO2 emissions could be reduced annually from the modal shift from cars and motorcycles to the MRT system. Atmospheric PM2.5 concentration could be reduced 0.61 μg/m3 annually (2%). This could avoid a total of 12 deaths, mostly from cardio-respiratory diseases among the city residents. For traffic injuries, 37 deaths could be avoided annually from motorcycle and passenger cars accidents especially among the younger age categories (aged 15-30). One additional death was attributed to pedestrian walking. The additional daily physical activity to access the MRT system could avoid 21 deaths among its riders. Most of the mortality avoided comes from cardiovascular diseases. Overall, a total of 70 deaths could be avoided annually among both the general population and the MRT users in the city. The implementation of the MRT system in Greater Kuala Lumpur could bring substantial health co-benefits to both the general population and the MRT users mainly from the

  8. The contribution of reduction in malaria as a cause of rapid decline of under-five mortality: evidence from the Rufiji Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in rural Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanté, Almamy M; Nathan, Rose; Helleringer, Stéphane; Sigilbert, Mrema; Levira, Francis; Masanja, Honorati; de Savigny, Don; Abdulla, Salim; Phillips, James F

    2014-05-10

    Under-five mortality has been declining rapidly in a number of sub-Saharan African settings. Malaria-related mortality is known to be a major component of childhood causes of death and malaria remains a major focus of health interventions. The paper explored the contribution of malaria relative to other specific causes of under-five deaths to these trends. This paper uses longitudinal demographic surveillance data to examine trends and causes of death of under-five mortality in Rufiji, whose population has been followed for over nine years (1999-2007). Causes of death, determined by the verbal autopsy technique, are analysed with Arriaga's decomposition method to assess the contribution of declining malaria-related mortality relative to other causes of death as explaining a rapid decline in overall childhood mortality. Over the 1999-2007 period, under-five mortality rate in Rufiji declined by 54.3%, from 33.3 to 15.2 per 1,000 person-years. If this trend is sustained, Rufiji will be a locality that achieves MDG4 target. Although hypotrophy at birth remained the leading cause of death for neonates, malaria remains as the leading cause of death for post-neonates followed by pneumonia. However, declines in malaria death rates accounted for 49.9% of the observed under-five mortality decline while all perinatal causes accounted for only 19.9%. To achieve MDG 4 in malaria endemic settings, health programmes should continue efforts to reduce malaria mortality and more efforts are also needed to improve newborn survival.

  9. A Demographic Perspective on Family Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchi, Suzanne M

    2014-03-01

    Demographic analysis seeks to understand how individual microlevel decisions about child-bearing, marriage and partnering, geographic mobility, and behaviors that influence health and longevity aggregate to macrolevel population trends and differentials in fertility, mortality and migration. In this review, I first discuss theoretical perspectives-classic demographic transition theory, the perspective of the "second demographic transition," the spread of developmental idealism-that inform demographers' understanding of macrolevel population change. Then, I turn to a discussion of the role that demographically informed data collection has played in illuminating family change since the mid-20th century in the United States. Finally, I discuss ways in which demographic theory and data collection might inform future areas of family research, particularly in the area of intergenerational family relationships and new and emerging family forms.

  10. A Demographic Perspective on Family Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchi, Suzanne M.

    2014-01-01

    Demographic analysis seeks to understand how individual microlevel decisions about child-bearing, marriage and partnering, geographic mobility, and behaviors that influence health and longevity aggregate to macrolevel population trends and differentials in fertility, mortality and migration. In this review, I first discuss theoretical perspectives—classic demographic transition theory, the perspective of the “second demographic transition,” the spread of developmental idealism—that inform demographers’ understanding of macrolevel population change. Then, I turn to a discussion of the role that demographically informed data collection has played in illuminating family change since the mid-20th century in the United States. Finally, I discuss ways in which demographic theory and data collection might inform future areas of family research, particularly in the area of intergenerational family relationships and new and emerging family forms. PMID:26078785

  11. Understanding the Demographic and Health Transition in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    23 juin 2009 ... Systèmes d'innovation des pays BRICS (Brésil, Russie, Inde, Chine et Afrique du Sud). Le Brésil, la Russie, l'Inde, la Chine et l'Afrique du Sud (dits pays BRICS) ont placé l'innovation au coeur de leur stratégie de développement. Voir davantageSystèmes d'innovation des pays BRICS (Brésil, Russie, Inde, ...

  12. Product variety and the demographic transition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guzmán, Ricardo Andrés; Weisdorf, Jacob Louis

    2010-01-01

    Why does the rate of population growth decline in the face of economic growth? We show that growing product variety may induce a permanent reduction in the demand for children and a continuous rise in income and consumption....

  13. Product Variety and the Demographic Transition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guzmán, Ricardo Andrés; Weisdorf, Jacob Louis

    Why does the rate of population growth decline in the face of economic growth? We show that growing product variety may induce a permanent reduction in the demand for children and a continuous rise in income and consumption....

  14. The Role of the Silicon Cycle in the Eocene-Oligocene Transition: Rapid Rise in Diatom-δ30Si

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egan, K. E.; Rickaby, R. E.; Leng, M. J.; Halliday, A. N.

    2011-12-01

    The Eocene-Oligocene (E-O) boundary represents a time of major climatic change which heralded the descent of Earth's climate from earlier greenhouse conditions into today's icehouse world. Decline of atmospheric CO2 levels, development of major ice sheets on Antarctica and initiation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current around 34Ma ago dramatically changed the state of the atmosphere, cryosphere and hydrosphere: Major isotopic excursions are seen in both marine oxygen and carbon cycles, and yet the mechanisms behind this transition are still not fully understood. Unravelling the causes of such a significant climatic shift is essential to furthering our grasp on the mechanisms that control climate. The silicon isotope composition (δ30Si) preserved in diatom opal provides a window to the E-O Silicon cycle. The Silicon cycle is a key player in controlling atmospheric CO2 levels for two reasons. Firstly, weathering of silicate minerals acts to draw down CO2 into the ocean and ultimately sediments. Secondly, carbon export from the surface ocean by diatoms, siliceous walled phytoplankton, facilitates carbon transport to a deep ocean sink. We present a long term record of diatom-δ30Si record covering 37Ma to 25Ma, with E-O boundary targeted higher resolution (sponge spicule-δ30Si of ~2% seen by De La Rocha (2003) in sediments from the Maud Rise (ODP site 689). Taken together, these records demonstrate that changes are occurring in both the surface and deep waters of the Southern Ocean across this boundary. We will discuss the implications this has for silicon cycling across the E-O transition, in terms of variation in both weathering and diatom productivity, and the impact that this may have had on global climate.

  15. The double edged sword: The demographic consequences of the evolution of self-fertilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu Awad, Diala; Billiard, Sylvain

    2017-05-01

    Phylogenies indicate that the transition from outcrossing to selfing is frequent, with selfing populations being more prone to extinction. The rates of transition to selfing and extinction, acting on different timescales, could explain the observed distributions of extant selfing species among taxa. However, phylogenetic and theoretical studies consider these mechanisms independently, that is transitions do not cause extinction. Here, we theoretically explore the demographic consequences of the evolution of self-fertilization. Deleterious mutations and mutations modifying the selfing rate are recurrently introduced and the number of offspring depends on individual fitness, allowing for a demographic feedback. We show that mutational meltdowns can be triggered in populations evolving near strict selfing. Populations having survived a demographic crash are more stable than ancestral outcrossing populations once deleterious mutations are purged. The relatively rapid time-scales at which extinctions occur indicate that during evolutionary transitions the accumulation of deleterious mutations may not be the cause of extinctions observed on longer time scales, but could lead to the underestimation of transition rates from outcrossing to selfing. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  16. Implications of climate variability for the detection of multiple equilibria and for rapid transitions in the atmosphere-vegetation system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bathiany, S. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Claussen, M. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Universitaet Hamburg, Meteorologisches Institut, Hamburg (Germany); Fraedrich, K. [Universitaet Hamburg, Meteorologisches Institut, Hamburg (Germany)

    2012-05-15

    Paleoclimatic records indicate a decline of vegetation cover in the Western Sahara at the end of the African Humid Period (about 5,500 years before present). Modelling studies have shown that this phenomenon may be interpreted as a critical transition that results from a bifurcation in the atmosphere-vegetation system. However, the stability properties of this system are closely linked to climate variability and depend on the climate model and the methods of analysis. By coupling the Planet Simulator (PlaSim), an atmosphere model of intermediate complexity, with the simple dynamic vegetation model VECODE, we assess previous methods for the detection of multiple equilibria, and demonstrate their limitations. In particular, a stability diagram can yield misleading results because of spatial interactions, and the system's steady state and its dependency on initial conditions are affected by atmospheric variability and nonlinearities. In addition, we analyse the implications of climate variability for the abruptness of a vegetation decline. We find that a vegetation collapse can happen at different locations at different times. These collapses are possible despite large and uncorrelated climate variability. Because of the nonlinear relation between vegetation dynamics and precipitation the green state is initially stabilised by the high variability. When precipitation falls below a critical threshold, the desert state is stabilised as variability is then also decreased. (orig.)

  17. OH reactivity in urban and suburban regions in Seoul, South Korea - an East Asian megacity in a rapid transition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Saewung; Sanchez, Dianne; Wang, Mark; Seco, Roger; Jeong, Daun; Hughes, Stacey; Barletta, Barbara; Blake, Donald R; Jung, Jinsang; Kim, Deugsoo; Lee, Gangwoong; Lee, Meehye; Ahn, Joonyoung; Lee, Sang-Deok; Cho, Gangnam; Sung, Min-Young; Lee, Yong-Hwan; Kim, Dan Bi; Kim, Younha; Woo, Jung-Hun; Jo, Duseong; Park, Rokjin; Park, Jeong-Hoo; Hong, You-Deog; Hong, Ji-Hyung

    2016-07-18

    South Korea has recently achieved developed country status with the second largest megacity in the world, the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA). This study provides insights into future changes in air quality for rapidly emerging megacities in the East Asian region. We present total OH reactivity observations in the SMA conducted at an urban Seoul site (May-June, 2015) and a suburban forest site (Sep, 2015). The total OH reactivity in an urban site during the daytime was observed at similar levels (∼15 s(-1)) to those previously reported from other East Asian megacity studies. Trace gas observations indicate that OH reactivity is largely accounted for by NOX (∼50%) followed by volatile organic compounds (VOCs) (∼35%). Isoprene accounts for a substantial fraction of OH reactivity among the comprehensive VOC observational dataset (25-47%). In general, observed total OH reactivity can be accounted for by the observed trace gas dataset. However, observed total OH reactivity in the suburban forest area cannot be largely accounted for (∼70%) by the trace gas measurements. The importance of biogenic VOC (BVOCs) emissions and oxidations used to evaluate the impacts of East Asian megacity outflows for the regional air quality and climate contexts are highlighted in this study.

  18. Mortality in adult immigrants in the 2000s in Belgium: a test of the 'healthy-migrant' and the 'migration-as-rapid-health-transition' hypotheses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandenheede, Hadewijch; Willaert, Didier; De Grande, Hannelore; Simoens, Steven; Vanroelen, Christophe

    2015-12-01

    Firstly, to map out and compare all-cause and cause-specific mortality patterns by migrant background in Belgium; and secondly, to probe into explanations for the observed patterns, more specifically into the healthy-migrant, acculturation and the migration-as-rapid-health-transition theories. Data comprise individually linked Belgian census-mortality follow-up data for the period 2001-2011. All official inhabitants aged 25-54 at time of the census were included. To delve into the different explanations, differences in all-cause and chronic- and infectious-disease mortality were estimated using Poisson regression models, adjusted for age, socioeconomic position and urbanicity. First-generation immigrants have lower all-cause and chronic-disease mortality than the host population. This mortality advantage wears off with length of stay and is more marked among non-Western than Western first-generation immigrants. For example, Western and non-Western male immigrants residing 10 years or more in Belgium have a mortality rate ratio for cardiovascular disease of 0.72 (95% CI 0.66-0.78) and 0.59 (95% CI 0.53-0.66), respectively (vs host population). The pattern of infectious-disease mortality in migrants is slightly different, with rather high mortality rates in first-generation sub-Saharan Africans and rather low rates in all other immigrant groups. As for second-generation immigrants, the picture is gloomier, with a mortality disadvantage that disappears after control for socioeconomic position. Findings are largely consistent with the healthy-migrant, acculturation and the migration-as-rapid-health-transition theories. The convergence of the mortality profile of second-generation immigrants towards that of the host population with similar socioeconomic position indicates the need for policies simultaneously addressing different areas of deprivation. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Evidence from a mouse model that epithelial cell migration and mesenchymal-epithelial transition contribute to rapid restoration of uterine tissue integrity during menstruation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cousins, Fiona L; Murray, Alison; Esnal, Arantza; Gibson, Douglas A; Critchley, Hilary O D; Saunders, Philippa T K

    2014-01-01

    In women dynamic changes in uterine tissue architecture occur during each menstrual cycle. Menses, characterised by the shedding of the upper functional layer of the endometrium, is the culmination of a cascade of irreversible changes in tissue function including stromal decidualisation, inflammation and production of degradative enzymes. The molecular mechanisms that contribute to the rapid restoration of tissue homeostasis at time of menses are poorly understood. A modified mouse model of menses was developed to focus on the events occurring within the uterine lining during endometrial shedding/repair. Decidualisation, vaginal bleeding, tissue architecture and cell proliferation were evaluated at 4, 8, 12, and 24 hours after progesterone (P4) withdrawal; mice received a single injection of bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU) 90 mins before culling. Expression of genes implicated in the regulation of mesenchymal to epithelial transition (MET) was determined using a RT2 PCR profiler array, qRTPCR and bioinformatic analysis. Mice exhibited vaginal bleeding between 4 and 12 hours after P4 withdrawal, concomitant with detachment of the decidualised cell mass from the basal portion of the endometrial lining. Immunostaining for BrdU and pan cytokeratin revealed evidence of epithelial cell proliferation and migration. Cells that appeared to be in transition from a mesenchymal to an epithelial cell identity were identified within the stromal compartment. Analysis of mRNAs encoding genes expressed exclusively in the epithelial or stromal compartments, or implicated in MET, revealed dynamic changes in expression, consistent with a role for reprogramming of mesenchymal cells so that they could contribute to re-epithelialisation. These studies have provided novel insights into the cellular processes that contribute to re-epithelialisation post-menses implicating both epithelial cell migration and mesenchymal cell differentiation in restoration of an intact epithelial cell layer. These

  20. The nutrition transition in amazonia: rapid economic change and its impact on growth and development in Ribeirinhos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piperata, Barbara A; Spence, Jennifer E; Da-Gloria, Pedro; Hubbe, Mark

    2011-09-01

    The goal of this longitudinal study was to assess the impact of economic change and increased market integration on subsistence strategies, living conditions, growth, and nutritional status of Ribeirinhos living in the rural Amazon, Brazil. Data on weight, height, skinfolds, and circumferences, as well as data on economic strategies and living conditions were collected from 469 individuals in 2002 and 429 in 2009. Of these, 204 individuals were measured on both occasions. Independent and paired t-tests were used to identify changes in nutritional status over time in the larger sample and smaller, longitudinal subsample, respectively. Multiple linear regressions were used to examine the relationship between changes in economic/living conditions and nutritional status in the longitudinal subsample. Results indicate modest improvements in linear growth (HAZ) and among male children the observed increase was related to enrollment in the Brazilian conditional cash transfer program, Bolsa Família (P = 0.03). In terms of short-term measures of nutritional status, we found a significant increase in ZTSF and a reduction in ZUMA in most age/sex groups. Among subadults, there was a negative relationship between ZUMA and access to electricity (P = 0.01) and positive relationship between ZUMA and the sale of the açaí fruit (P = 0.04). Significant changes in weight and BMI (P economic strategies and lifestyle, changes in nutritional status were modest which may be explained by increased food insecurity documented during this early stage of transition. 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  1. Individualism and demographic change

    OpenAIRE

    Kolev, Stefan

    2017-01-01

    This paper aims to provide a counterweight to the omnipresent gloomy analyses of demographic change in Western societies. The central argument is that the strains and challenges which demographic change poses for different sub-orders of society can lead to a higher appreciation of the individual in these sub-orders, possibly entailing self-correcting properties of the process of demographic change. First, a two-fold division is provided for the causes of demographic change, distinguishing bet...

  2. Nuclear transit study in children with chronic faecal soiling after Hirschsprung disease (HSCR) surgery has revealed a group with rapid proximal colonic treatment and possible adverse reactions to food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stathopoulos, Lefteris; King, Sebastian K; Southwell, Bridget R; Hutson, John M

    2016-08-01

    Long-term problems with faecal incontinence occur in up to 50 % of patients after pull-through for Hirschsprung disease (HSCR). The cause often remains unknown, leading to empirical treatments. Using nuclear transit study, we found some patients surprisingly had rapid proximal colonic transit, suspicious of occult diarrhoea. We aimed to assess whether these patients had unrecognized adverse reactions to food. Patients (n = 10, all males, 9.6 year; 4.25-15.5 years) with persistent faecal incontinence following pull-through for HSCR referred to the senior author and after exclusion of anatomical defects, underwent nuclear transit studies. Most (8) subsequently underwent breath hydrogen tests for sugar malabsorption and were tested for adverse reactions to food. Exclusion diets for protein allergens, lactose or fructose were then trialed. Of the 10 patients with rapid intestinal transit proven on nuclear transit study, breath hydrogen tests for fructose and/or lactose malabsorption were done in 8, and were positive in 7/8 patients. Exclusion diets contributed to either resolution or improvement in faecal incontinence in 9/10 patients. Rapid transit in the proximal, ganglionated colon may be present in children with faecal incontinence following pull-through for HSCR, possibly secondary to adverse reactions to food. This study suggests that children with post-operative soiling may benefit from a transit study and hydrogen breath tests to diagnose adverse reactions to food caused by sugar malabsorption.

  3. Transição demográfica e desigualdades sociais no Brasil Transición demográfica y desigualdades sociales en Brasil Demographic transitions and social inequalities in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fausto Brito

    2008-06-01

    principalmente, sociales. Bajo esta perspectiva, la transición demográfica está lejos de ser considerada neutra: puede tanto crear posibilidades demográficas que potencien el crecimiento de la economía y del bienestar social de la población, como ampliar las graves desigualdades sociales que marcan a la sociedad brasileña. Esta situación se torna más compleja en función de que Brasil aún se encuentra inserto en el gran ciclo de crecimiento absoluto de su población. Debido a las desigualdades sociales y a las correspondientes diferencias en las tasas de fecundidad total, la población más pobre es la que más ha crecido, con fuertes consecuencias sobre los cambios en la estructura etaria. Las relaciones entre los diversos indicadores de la transición demográfica y los ingresos domiciliarios per cápita muestran que las diferencias sociales llevan en Brasil, a "desigualdades demográficas" mayores que aquéllas observadas entre las diferentes regiones. Sus beneficios, o bonos demográficos, son distintos según los niveles sociales. De este modo, la capacidad de que la transición demográfica potencie las transferencias intergeneracionales de recursos, está íntimamente asociada a la implementación de políticas que potencien las transferencias sociales de esos mismos recursos.This article examines the idiosyncrasies of demographic transitions in Brazil caused by the extreme disparities among regions and socioeconomic groups. While ubiquitous, demographic transition in Brazil shows a number of different facets. It is far from being a neutral process and creates opportunities as well as broad socioeconomic disparities. Because of differences in fertility rates by SES, those in lower-income brackets constitute the fastest growing populational group, as well as the group with the youngest age distribution. This article argues that socioeconomic differences are related to demographic disparities. Therefore, the development of public policies to improve the well

  4. The welfare state and demographic dividends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gemma Abío

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: The demographic transition experienced by developed countries produces initial positive effects on economic growth ‒ the first demographic dividend ‒ which can be extended into a second demographic dividend if baby boomers' savings increase capital accumulation. Nevertheless, aging might reverse this process if dissaving of elderly baby boomers and the pressure on the pay-as-you-go financed welfare state reduce savings and capital. Objective: The aim of this paper is to evaluate the extent to which demographic dividends in Spain provide an opportunity for the reform of the welfare state system for an aging population. Methods: We decompose demographic dividends using a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with realistic demography and public transfers from the National Transfer Accounts database. This allows us to capture the endogenous evolution of savings and capital accumulation and, hence, the second demographic dividend. Results: When baby boomers enter the labor market, the purely demographic support ratio increases and this positive effect is extended by composition changes in the age structure of workers. When they start saving, the second demographic dividend arises, while its total net effect depends both on the strength of the aging process and on transfer size. Conclusions: The derived decomposition shows that the second demographic dividend might also disappear. Sharp population aging in Spain implies that capital will shrink drastically after 2040. Before this, there seems to be margin for reforms; however, an extension of the welfare state toward the Nordic model would considerably reduce capital. Contribution: This paper contributes to the debate on the effects of demographics on economic growth by decomposing demographic dividends and investigating the impact of different welfare state transfer systems on the second demographic dividend.

  5. Characterization of a rapid climate shift at the MIS 8/7 transition in central Spain (Valdocarros II, Autonomous Region of Madrid) by means of the herpetological assemblages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blain, Hugues-Alexandre; Panera, Joaquin; Uribelarrea, David; Rubio-Jara, Susana; Pérez-González, Alfredo

    2012-07-01

    Climate instability with high-amplitude and rapid shifts during the Middle Pleistocene is well known from pollen records and deep-ocean sediment cores. Although poorly correlatable with such long climate/environment records, the successive fossil amphibian and reptile assemblages from the Middle Pleistocene site of Valdocarros II (Autonomous Region of Madrid, central Spain) provide a unique opportunity to characterize the climatic and environmental features of such rapid (certainly less than 1000 years) shifts from cold to warm conditions in a terrestrial sequence. As the amphibians and reptiles do not differ at species level from the extant herpetofauna of the Iberian Peninsula, they can contribute to the reconstruction of the landscape and climate. In this paper, the mutual climatic range and habitat weighting methods are applied to the herpetofaunistic assemblages in order to estimate quantitative data. The difference in mean annual temperature between "cold" and "warm" periods is estimated at 3.2 °C, with a greater increase in temperature during winter (+3 °C) than during summer (+1 °C). During "cold" periods the climate was more Oceanic (although preserving some dryness during the summers), whereas during "warm" periods the climate became Mediterranean (with mild winters and a long period of dryness in the summer and early autumn). Though higher during cold periods, the continentality (or atmospheric temperature range) remained roughly similar, in accordance with the geographical location of the site in the centre of the Iberian Peninsula. A greater amount of open landscape occurred during "cold" periods, whereas during "warm" periods the wooded areas expanded from 20% to 40% of the landscape surface. Such climatic/environmental changes, together with the numeric datings of the site, suggest that this shift may correspond to the transition from MIS 8 to MIS 7, also called Termination III.

  6. The Heliopause Electrostatic Rapid Transit System (HERTS) Design, Trades, and Analyses Performed in a Two Year NASA Investigation of Electric Sail Propulsion Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiegmann, Bruce M.

    2017-01-01

    The Heliopause Electrostatic Rapid Transit System (HERTS) was one of the seven total Phase II NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) that was down-selected in 2015 for continued funding and research. In Phase I our team learned that a spacecraft propelled by an Electric Sail (E-Sail) can travel great astronomical distances, such as to the Heliopause region of the solar system (approx. 100 to 120 AU) in approximately one quarter of the time (10 years) versus the time it took the Voyager spacecraft launched in 1977 (36 years). The completed work within the Phase II NIAC funded effort builds upon the work that was done in the Phase I NIAC and is focused on: 1) Testing of plasma interaction with a charged wire in a MSFC simulated solar environment vacuum test chamber. 2) Development of a Particle-in-Cell (PIC) models that are validated in the plasma testing and used to extrapolate to the E-Sail propulsion system design. 3) Conceptual design of a Technology Demonstration Mission (TDM) spacecraft developed to showcase E-Sail propulsion systems. 4) Down selection of both: a) Materials for a multi km length conductor and, b) Best configuration of the proposed conductor deployment subsystem. This paper will document the findings to date (June, 2017) of the above focused areas.

  7. A High-Speed Target-Free Vision-Based Sensor for Bus Rapid Transit Viaduct Vibration Measurements Using CMT and ORB Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qijun Hu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Bus Rapid Transit (BRT has become an increasing source of concern for public transportation of modern cities. Traditional contact sensing techniques during the process of health monitoring of BRT viaducts cannot overcome the deficiency that the normal free-flow of traffic would be blocked. Advances in computer vision technology provide a new line of thought for solving this problem. In this study, a high-speed target-free vision-based sensor is proposed to measure the vibration of structures without interrupting traffic. An improved keypoints matching algorithm based on consensus-based matching and tracking (CMT object tracking algorithm is adopted and further developed together with oriented brief (ORB keypoints detection algorithm for practicable and effective tracking of objects. Moreover, by synthesizing the existing scaling factor calculation methods, more rational approaches to reducing errors are implemented. The performance of the vision-based sensor is evaluated through a series of laboratory tests. Experimental tests with different target types, frequencies, amplitudes and motion patterns are conducted. The performance of the method is satisfactory, which indicates that the vision sensor can extract accurate structure vibration signals by tracking either artificial or natural targets. Field tests further demonstrate that the vision sensor is both practicable and reliable.

  8. Dancing with Demographers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Heather-Jane

    2000-01-01

    Demographic projections concerning the shortage of teachers in Canada, their pay scale, the feminization of teaching, the gender gap in salaries, and teacher autonomy have often been incorrect, or correct for the wrong reasons. Instead of relying on demographic predictions, teachers should contemplate who they really want to be professionally,…

  9. The business of demographics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, C

    1984-06-01

    The emergence of "demographics" in the past 15 years is a vital tool for American business research and planning. Tracing demographic trends became important for businesses when traditional consumer markets splintered with the enormous changes since the 1960s in US population growth, age structure, geographic distribution, income, education, living arrangements, and life-styles. The mass of reliable, small-area demographic data needed for market estimates and projections became available with the electronic census--public release of Census Bureau census and survey data on computer tape, beginning with the 1970 census. Census Bureau tapes as well as printed reports and microfiche are now widely accessible at low cost through summary tape processing centers designated by the bureau and its 12 regional offices and State Data Center Program. Data accessibility, plummeting computer costs, and businessess' unfamiliarity with demographics spawned the private data industry. By 1984, 70 private companies were offering demographic services to business clients--customized information repackaged from public data or drawn from proprietary data bases created from such data. Critics protest the for-profit use of public data by companies able to afford expensive mainframe computer technology. Business people defend their rights to public data as taxpaying ceitzens, but they must ensure that the data are indeed used for the public good. They must also question the quality of demographic data generated by private companies. Business' demographic expertise will improve when business schools offer training in demography, as few now do, though 40 of 88 graduate-level demographic programs now include business-oriented courses. Lower cost, easier access to business demographics is growing as more census data become available on microcomputer diskettes and through on-line linkages with large data bases--from private data companies and the Census Bureau itself. A directory of private and

  10. The Career Transition Process: A Qualitative Exploration of Korean Middle-Aged Workers in Postretirement Employment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seon-Joo

    2014-01-01

    Today's society, shaped by demographic changes and a global economy, has created different employment trends and work lives that result in adults' engaging in postretirement second careers. This phenomenon is a common occurrence in rapidly aging societies like Korea. This qualitative study examined the postretirement career transition process of…

  11. Laboratory Demographics Lookup Tool

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This website provides demographic information about laboratories, including CLIA number, facility name and address, where the laboratory testing is performed, the...

  12. Rapid change of fecal microbiome and disappearance of Clostridium difficile in a colonized infant after transition from breast milk to cow milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Manli Y; Zhang, Husen; Brannan, Lera E; Carman, Robert J; Boone, James H

    2016-10-07

    Clostridium difficile is the most common known cause of antibiotic-associated diarrhea. Upon the disturbance of gut microbiota by antibiotics, C. difficile establishes growth and releases toxins A and B, which cause tissue damage in the host. The symptoms of C. difficile infection disease range from mild diarrhea to pseudomembranous colitis and toxic megacolon. Interestingly, 10-50 % of infants are asymptomatic carriers of C. difficile. This longitudinal study of the C. difficile colonization in an infant revealed the dynamics of C. difficile presence in gut microbiota. Fifty fecal samples, collected weekly between 5.5 and 17 months of age from a female infant who was an asymptomatic carrier of C. difficile, were analyzed by 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Colonization switching between toxigenic and non-toxigenic C. difficile strains as well as more than 100,000-fold fluctuations of C. difficile counts were observed. C. difficile toxins were detected during the testing period in some infant stool samples, but the infant never had diarrhea. Although fecal microbiota was stable during breast feeding, a dramatic and permanent change of microbiota composition was observed within 5 days of the transition from human milk to cow milk. A rapid decline and eventual disappearance of C. difficile coincided with weaning at 12.5 months. An increase in the relative abundance of Bacteroides spp., Blautia spp., Parabacteroides spp., Coprococcus spp., Ruminococcus spp., and Oscillospira spp. and a decrease of Bifidobacterium spp., Lactobacillus spp., Escherichia spp., and Clostridium spp. were observed during weaning. The change in microbiome composition was accompanied by a gradual increase of fecal pH from 5.5 to 7. The bacterial groups that are less abundant in early infancy, and that increase in relative abundance after weaning, likely are responsible for the expulsion of C. difficile.

  13. Gender inequalities from the demographic perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devedžić Mirjana

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes the meaning of the phrase "the woman’s status in the society" that is recognized in demography as an important cultural factor of demographic development and transitional changes. The analysis indicates qualitative shifts in the woman’s status and simultaneously reveals its importance at present, not only in traditional, but also in modern and developed societies. On the other hand, it explains the importance of sex as a biodemographic determinant, and introduces the concept of gender that sheds another light on the concepts of sex and woman’s status in the society and integrates them. Gender regimes that subsume the inferiority of women in public and private social structures are examined from demographic perspective, albeit only in those phenomenological aspects that can be supported by demographic research, theories, and analyses. To this end, the paper analyzes the effects of strengthening gender equalities on the fertility and mortality transitions, the gender’s impact on the population distribution by sex in South Asian countries, and highlights the key role of gender in interpreting certain social and economic structures. It also stresses the establishing of gender equality as an important element of population policies. The global dimension of the patriarchal society is illustrated through a series of examples of demographic phenomena from various societies. Gender regimes underlie all of these phenomena. The paper puts foreword certain theoretical hypotheses about gender inequalities, and finds their connections with demographic behaviors and demographic indicators. Finally, it summarizes the role of demography in gender (inequality research and the demographic perspective of the way and the speed the demographic equality is being established. Demography is seen as an irreplaceable discipline in examining gender inequalities, especially at the global level. With the advance of qualitative methods in demography

  14. The importance of the timescale of the fitness metric for estimates of selection on phenotypic traits during a period of demographic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scranton, Katherine; Lummaa, Virpi; Stearns, Stephen C

    2016-08-01

    Although fitness is central to the evolutionary process, metrics vary by timescale. Different timescales may give rise to different estimates of selection, especially during demographic transitions caused by rapid environmental and socioeconomic change. In this study, we used a dataset of a human population in Finland from 1775 to 1950 to compare two fitness metrics and their estimates of selection pressures, before and during a demographic transition. Both metrics, lifetime reproductive success and an annual metric of individual performance, declined while selection on the ages at first and last reproduction remained nearly constant, favouring individuals with wider reproductive windows. The ability to partition the annual metric into contributions from reproduction and survival revealed the short-term effects of a famine and the reversal of selection pressure via the survival component of annual fitness. Although the metrics generally agreed, the annual metric detected the effects of environmental variation and demographic change occurring within a generation. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  15. DEMOGRAPHIC SECURITY: THEORY, METHODOLOGY, EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail V. Karmanov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes the theoretical aspects of demographic security. Reviewed and analyzed the point of view of various scholars to the definition of demographic security. The main directions of statistical analysis of demographic security.

  16. Rapid anthropogenic response to short-term aeolian-fluvial palaeoenvironmental changes during the Late Pleistocene-Holocene transition in the northern Negev Desert, Israel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roskin, Joel; Katra, Itzhak; Agha, Nuha; Goring-Morris, A. Nigel; Porat, Naomi; Barzilai, Omry

    2014-09-01

    Archaeological investigations along Nahal Sekher on the eastern edge of Israel's northwestern Negev Desert dunefield revealed concentrations of Epipalaeolithic campsites associated respectively with ancient water bodies. This study, aimed at better understanding the connections between these camps and the water bodies, is concerned with a cluster of Natufian sites. A comprehensive geomorphological study integrating field mapping, stratigraphic sections, sedimentological analysis and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages was conducted in the vicinity of a recently excavated Natufian campsite of Nahal Sekher VI whose artifacts directly overlay aeolian sand dated by OSL to 12.4 ± 0.7 and 11.7 ± 0.5 ka. Residual sequences of diagnostic silty sediments, defined here as low-energy fluvial fine-grained deposits (LFFDs), were identified within the drainage system of central Nahal Sekher around the Nahal Sekher VI site. LFFD sections were found to represent both shoreline and mid-water deposits. The thicker mid-water LFFD deposits (15.7 ± 0.7-10.7 ± 0.5 ka) date within the range of the Epipalaeolithic campsites, while the upper and shoreline LFFD units that thin out into the sands adjacent to the Nahal Sekher VI site display slightly younger ages (10.8 ± 0.4 ka-7.6 ± 0.4 ka). LFFD sedimentation by low-energy concentrated flow and standing-water developed as a result of proximal downstream dune-damming. These water bodies developed as a result of encroaching sand that initially crossed central Nahal Sekher by 15.7 ± 0.7 ka and probably intermittently blocked the course of the wadi. LFFD deposition was therefore a response to a unique combination of regional sand supply due to frequent powerful winds and does not represent climate change in the form of increased precipitation or temperature change. The chronostratigraphies affiliate the Natufian sites to the adjacent ancient water bodies. These relations reflect a rapid, but temporary anthropogenic response to a

  17. Serbian demographers on demography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rašević Mirjana

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The objective of this paper is to collect the opinions of the leading demographers in Serbia on four significant matters. The matters are: development, state and future of demography, the successfulness of researchers in this scientific discipline, improvement of the Stanovništvo journal, as well as the population priority of our society and range of population policies. Method: A qualitative interview was chosen as the instrument for data collection. Namely, a structured interview, based on nine questions was sent by e-mail to eleven addresses of relevant demographers in the second half of October 2013. The basic reason for sending questions by e-mail was the aspiration to obtain authentic replies which require time for contemplation. Ten completed questionnaires were returned within two weeks. On the one hand, an integral picture on the chosen themes for research was attempted to be obtained in the analysis of received opinions to certain groups of questions and on the other hand to portray the spectrum of different observations. The responses of our prominent demographers were analyzed and compared to clearly pronounced standpoints of eminent demographers published in world journals on similar themes and with findings of internet researches among members of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population. Results: The results show that there is a high level of consent among demographers in Serbia regarding the well positioning of demography in relation to other social studies and its good perspectives. The interviewed experts see the future of demography in its integration with a wide circle of sciences, the application of demography and/or greater engagement of researchers in carrying out public policies. However, the estimations of the interviewed demographers as regards the development and state of demography in Serbia are divided. Although a large number of topics had been listed, migrations and population

  18. Changing Hispanic Demographics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, Emily Gantz

    This report provides a demographic overview of Hispanics in the United States. Information was drawn largely from recent census figures. The following highlights are reported: (1) Hispanic Americans are the youngest and fastest growing minority group, but they are also more likely than non-Hispanics to drop out of school, be unemployed or…

  19. Hispanic Demographics: Looking Ahead.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, Emily G.

    This paper provides an overview of the current socioeconomic characteristics of Hispanics in the United States, and suggests factors of particular significance in projecting future Hispanic demographics and their implications for the Hispanic community and the broader American population. Hispanics are the second largest minority group and more…

  20. Demographic Change and Transport

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haustein, Sonja; Siren, Anu Kristiina; Framke, Elisabeth

    This report is the literature review on demographic changes and transport of Work Package 1 of the EU project CONSOL, “CONcerns and SOLutions – Road Safety in the Ageing Societies” (contract period: 2011-2013). The report is a state-of-the art report that combines current knowledge with new...

  1. [Israel: the demographic stake].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dussault, G

    1984-01-01

    A review of trends in Jewish migration to and from Israel from the late nineteenth century to the present day is provided. Consideration is also given to Arab migration and to the demographic implications of Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

  2. Changing demographics affecting sprawl

    Science.gov (United States)

    John F. Dwyer; Susan I. Stewart

    1999-01-01

    Demographic changes including population growth, racial/ethnic diversity, aging, expansion of urban areas, and migration to rural areas can bring significant population increases in particular areas that may encourage sprawl. Areas where the pressures for sprawl are likely to be the greatest include the periphery of urban areas, popular retirement destinations, places...

  3. WASP-167b/KELT-13b : joint discovery of a hot Jupiter transiting a rapidly rotating F1V star

    OpenAIRE

    Temple, L. Y.; Hellier, C.; Albrow, M. D.; Anderson, D. R.; Bayliss, D.; Beatty, T. G.; Bieryla, A.; Brown, D. J. A.; Cargile, P. A.; Collier Cameron, A.; Collins, K. A.; Colón, K. D.; Curtis, I. A.; D'Ago, G.; Delrez, L.

    2017-01-01

    We report the joint WASP/KELT discovery of WASP-167b/KELT-13b, a transiting hot Jupiter with a 2.02-d orbit around a $V$ = 10.5, F1V star with [Fe/H] = 0.1 $\\pm$ 0.1. The 1.5 R$_{\\rm Jup}$ planet was confirmed by Doppler tomography of the stellar line profiles during transit. We place a limit of $

  4. Rapid Communication: Δ v=2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3^- states and B(it{E}3) systematics of Sn isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maheshwari, Bhoomika; Garg, Swati; Jain, Ashok Kumar

    2017-11-01

    We show for the first time that the generalized seniority scheme explains reasonably well the B( E3) systematics for the (0^+ → 3_1^-) transitions in the Sn isotopes, which are odd-tensor E3 transitions connecting different seniority states (Δ v = 2). Additionally, we also present large scale shell model (LSSM) calculations to support our interpretation. The generalized seniority scheme points to the octupole character of these 3^- states in Sn isotopes.

  5. Europe at the crossroads: demographic challenges and international migration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Nimwegen, N.; van der Erf, R.F.

    2010-01-01

    Two demographic challenges confront Europe today: population ageing and population decline. These challenges are two sides of the same demographic coin. While low fertility and increasing longevity cause populations to rapidly grow older, low fertility also leads to population decline. This paper

  6. Complexity and Demographic Explanations of Cumulative Culture

    OpenAIRE

    Adrien Querbes; Krist Vaesen; Wybo Houkes

    2014-01-01

    Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limit...

  7. [Family planning and demographic regression].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrer Regales, M

    1979-06-01

    The problem of demographic explosion must be reexamined in the light of what has happened during the last 15-20 years in all industrialized countries, which have all experienced a sharp decrease in fertility rates due to the introduction of modern contraceptive technics, decreased mortality, and the possibility of easily obtaining induced legal abortion. Countries such as West Germany, England, Scotland, and Luxembourg have already reached zero population growth; countries such as Austria, Norway, Finland, Sweden have a growth rate of merely 0.2%. In most western countries average parity is 1.8 children per woman, when 2.18 children are needed to guarantee replacement. The sharpest decrease in fertility rates took place in West Germany and in France; should the tendency in those countries continue West Germany population would go from 60 million inhabitants to 39 million in 2030, and France would go from 53 million to 16 million. Demographic aging is another phenomenon related to fertility decrease; in 1977 in the United States 11% of the population was already over 65. Results of fertility decrease have been so sharp and so rapid that many Eastern European countries have already introduced incentives to reverse the trend, and/or to make abortion more difficult to obtain. This policy of incentives to encourage population growth has reached West Germany where since 1978 very young couples are given monetary help. Beside contraceptive availability population decrease has been fostered by the enormous increase in the rate of divorces and by the very liberal abortion laws. A large number of today's births are illegitimate, due mainly to the practice of trial marriages, without intention of real marriage, among adolescents.

  8. EJSCREEN Version 1, Demographic Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This map service displays demographic data used in EJSCREEN. All demographic data were derived from American Community Survey 2006-2010 estimates. EJSCREEN is an...

  9. Demographic trends in Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available In the present note, we present the main features of recent trends in vital family-demographic behavior in Sweden. For this purpose, published indices of marriage, divorce, and childbearing risks by calendar year are updated by adding another two or three years of observation to our series. We demonstrate that the latest trend reversal in Swedish birth rates, which occurred at the end of the 1990s, continued to manifest itself in increasing propensities for childbearing during the early years of the 21st century. The rise pertains to all birth orders. Marriage propensities showed an increase as well, however, to a large extent expressed in a short-term development that was prevalent at the turn of the millennium. The previous long-term trend of rising divorce risks leveled off during the first two years of the new century.

  10. Development of automated system for rapid evaluation of coal deposits with application of universal system of representation of rocks, transition rocks and coal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schejbal Ctirad

    2002-09-01

    Full Text Available The Geoinformatic section of Institute of geological engineering HGF VŠB-TU Ostrava is engaged a long time in the creation of coal databases, elaboration of automated systems of graphical presentation of exploration and/or mining data and in the development of automated system for rapid evaluation of coal deposits. This paper describes the main stages of problems solving, namely:− analysis of both classification and documentation systems of coal deposits,− creation of both structure and content of specialized databases,− principles of the selection of appropriate statistical/geostatistical procedures of geodata analysis,− proposal of the automated generation of both deposits documents and graphical symbols,− elaboration of the automated system for rapid evaluation of coal deposits.

  11. KELT-21b: A Hot Jupiter Transiting the Rapidly Rotating Metal-poor Late-A Primary of a Likely Hierarchical Triple System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Marshall C.; Rodriguez, Joseph E.; Zhou, George; Gonzales, Erica J.; Cargile, Phillip A.; Crepp, Justin R.; Penev, Kaloyan; Stassun, Keivan G.; Gaudi, B. Scott; Colón, Knicole D.; Stevens, Daniel J.; Strassmeier, Klaus G.; Ilyin, Ilya; Collins, Karen A.; Kielkopf, John F.; Oberst, Thomas E.; Maritch, Luke; Reed, Phillip A.; Gregorio, Joao; Bozza, Valerio; Calchi Novati, Sebastiano; D’Ago, Giuseppe; Scarpetta, Gaetano; Zambelli, Roberto; Latham, David W.; Bieryla, Allyson; Cochran, William D.; Endl, Michael; Tayar, Jamie; Serenelli, Aldo; Silva Aguirre, Victor; Clarke, Seth P.; Martinez, Maria; Spencer, Michelle; Trump, Jason; Joner, Michael D.; Bugg, Adam G.; Hintz, Eric G.; Stephens, Denise C.; Arredondo, Anicia; Benzaid, Anissa; Yazdi, Sormeh; McLeod, Kim K.; Jensen, Eric L. N.; Hancock, Daniel A.; Sorber, Rebecca L.; Kasper, David H.; Jang-Condell, Hannah; Beatty, Thomas G.; Carroll, Thorsten; Eastman, Jason; James, David; Kuhn, Rudolf B.; Labadie-Bartz, Jonathan; Lund, Michael B.; Mallonn, Matthias; Pepper, Joshua; Siverd, Robert J.; Yao, Xinyu; Cohen, David H.; Curtis, Ivan A.; DePoy, D. L.; Fulton, Benjamin J.; Penny, Matthew T.; Relles, Howard; Stockdale, Christopher; Tan, Thiam-Guan; Villanueva, Steven, Jr.

    2018-02-01

    We present the discovery of KELT-21b, a hot Jupiter transiting the V = 10.5 A8V star HD 332124. The planet has an orbital period of P = 3.6127647 ± 0.0000033 days and a radius of {1.586}-0.040+0.039 {R}{{J}}. We set an upper limit on the planetary mass of {M}Pv\\sin {I}* =146 km s‑1, the highest projected rotation velocity of any star known to host a transiting hot Jupiter. The star also appears to be somewhat metal poor and α-enhanced, with [{Fe}/{{H}}]=-{0.405}-0.033+0.032 and [α/Fe] = 0.145 ± 0.053 these abundances are unusual, but not extraordinary, for a young star with thin-disk kinematics like KELT-21. High-resolution imaging observations revealed the presence of a pair of stellar companions to KELT-21, located at a separation of 1.″2 and with a combined contrast of {{Δ }}{K}S=6.39+/- 0.06 with respect to the primary. Although these companions are most likely physically associated with KELT-21, we cannot confirm this with our current data. If associated, the candidate companions KELT-21 B and C would each have masses of ∼0.12 {M}ȯ , a projected mutual separation of ∼20 au, and a projected separation of ∼500 au from KELT-21. KELT-21b may be one of only a handful of known transiting planets in hierarchical triple stellar systems.

  12. Demographic Evolution in Romania – Convergence or Peripherisation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Veronica Litra

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Romania began its demographic transition about one century later than the developed countries. We put the blame of this gap on the delayed economic, social and political development in comparison with the Western Europe. But also, it could not be forgotten the shift from a population forced and subdue by the totalitary regime, to a free people to decide when to have a child or how large should be the family. During transition, Romania has pointed many negative demographic evolutions, as compared with the other european countries. It may be said that the transition in Romania over the period 1990-2004 adjusted the classical pattern of demographic evolution. Not fully felt at this moment, we will probably find ourselves few decades later older, less, deprived of skilled labor force and unbalanced as gender ratio.

  13. Demographic and future supply working in Spain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Antonio Fernández Cordón

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The demographic situation in Spain is characterised by a very low birth rate: the lowest in Europe, a high life expectancy, the highest in the world and an immigration of foreign workers that was initiated in the 80s and that is increasing lately. The growing old of the population will increase in the future. Neither immigration nor the increase of birth rates will reverse this tendency. Therefore the ratio of dependence will be unavoidable. The creation of employment will be limited in the medium and the long term by a scarcity of employment, due to a foreseeable decrease of the population at a working age. In order to overcome this deficiency Spain cannot count on foreign immigration since this is not guaranteed in the future. Countries of origin are going through their own demographic transition, their population will also grow old in the long term while they attempt to improve their economic situation.

  14. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Querbes, Adrien; Vaesen, Krist; Houkes, Wybo

    2014-01-01

    Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

  15. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrien Querbes

    Full Text Available Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

  16. The Cuban-American Transition: Demographic Changes Drive Ideological Changes* La transición Cubano-Americana: Cambios demográficos frente a cambios ideológicos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillermo J. Grenier

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Cuban-Americans are changing their attitudes about many of the key components of current US/ Cuba policy. The paper explores some of the social forces creating the patterns associated with the changing attitudes. Based on the data from the 2014 Cuba Poll, a descriptive analysis of relationships among key demographic variables uncovers compelling patterns associated with the ideological shift occurring in the population. Specifically, the patterns associated with ideology shifts and time of arrival of the migrant as well as his/her age and political party preference are explored. The paper makes clear that the new arrivals to Miami, as well as the younger Cubans, are significantly more interested in normalizing relations with the home country. Unfortunately, a large majority of the new arrivals (migrating since 1995, are not citizens and therefore not able to participate in the electoral processes that shape U.S. policy towards the island. Los cubano-americanos están cambiando sus actitudes acerca de muchos de los componentes clave de la política actual de Estados Unidos hacia Cuba. El artículo explora algunas de las fuerzas sociales que crean los patrones asociados a esas actitudes cambiantes. En base a los datos del 2014 Cuba Poll, un análisis descriptivo de las relaciones entre las variables demográficas clave, el texto descubre patrones de peso asociados con el cambio ideológico que ocurre en la población. En concreto, patrones asociados con los cambios y el tiempo de llegada de los migrantes, así como su edad y preferencia de partido político o de ideología. El documento deja claro que las personas recién llegadas a Miami, así como los jóvenes cubanos, están significativamente más interesados en la normalización de las relaciones con su país de origen. Por desgracia, la gran mayoría de los recién llegados (desde 1995, no son ciudadanos estadounidenses y, por tanto, no pueden participar en los procesos electorales que dan

  17. WASP-167b/KELT-13b: joint discovery of a hot Jupiter transiting a rapidly rotating F1V star

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temple, L. Y.; Hellier, C.; Albrow, M. D.; Anderson, D. R.; Bayliss, D.; Beatty, T. G.; Bieryla, A.; Brown, D. J. A.; Cargile, P. A.; Collier Cameron, A.; Collins, K. A.; Colón, K. D.; Curtis, I. A.; D'Ago, G.; Delrez, L.; Eastman, J.; Gaudi, B. S.; Gillon, M.; Gregorio, J.; James, D.; Jehin, E.; Joner, M. D.; Kielkopf, J. F.; Kuhn, R. B.; Labadie-Bartz, J.; Latham, D. W.; Lendl, M.; Lund, M. B.; Malpas, A. L.; Maxted, P. F. L.; Myers, G.; Oberst, T. E.; Pepe, F.; Pepper, J.; Pollacco, D.; Queloz, D.; Rodriguez, J. E.; Ségransan, D.; Siverd, R. J.; Smalley, B.; Stassun, K. G.; Stevens, D. J.; Stockdale, C.; Tan, T. G.; Triaud, A. H. M. J.; Udry, S.; Villanueva, S.; West, R. G.; Zhou, G.

    2017-11-01

    We report the joint WASP/KELT discovery of WASP-167b/KELT-13b, a transiting hot Jupiter with a 2.02-d orbit around a V = 10.5, F1V star with [Fe/H] = 0.1 ± 0.1. The 1.5 RJup planet was confirmed by Doppler tomography of the stellar line profiles during transit. We place a limit of <8 MJup on its mass. The planet is in a retrograde orbit with a sky-projected spin-orbit angle of λ = -165° ± 5°. This is in agreement with the known tendency for orbits around hotter stars to be more likely to be misaligned. WASP-167/KELT-13 is one of the few systems where the stellar rotation period is less than the planetary orbital period. We find evidence of non-radial stellar pulsations in the host star, making it a δ-Scuti or γ-Dor variable. The similarity to WASP-33, a previously known hot-Jupiter host with pulsations, adds to the suggestion that close-in planets might be able to excite stellar pulsations.

  18. Demographic studies in Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, H

    1998-01-01

    Studies on population and migration have gained growing popularity in the federal government, in universities, and among historians, economists, sociologists, and research institutions in Germany. Research institutions were expanded, and some received special funding from the Federal Society of Scientific Research for studies on demography and migration. Achievements in these subjects include monographs on the history and/or present demographic situation, book series, academic research reports, and consultative reports on contemporary population issues. Information exchanges with the rest of the world also heightened considerably. This paper focuses on major research institutions in Germany that specifically work on demography and population issues. It discusses the characteristics of their research, as well as their research subjects. These institutions include: 1) the Institute for Migration Research and Intercultural Studies at the University of Osnabruck, established after the German unification in 1991; 2) the Wiesbaden-based Federal Institute for Population Research, founded in 1973; and 3) the Institute for Population Research and Social Policy of the University of Bielefeld, founded in 1980. At present, Germany has two population research societies: the German Society for Population Research and the GDR Society for Population Research.

  19. Demographics and remote locations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coppus, G. [Dynawise Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    Within the next decade, the number of people leaving the workforce will exceed the number of new entrants. The demand for workers is expected to increase in Alberta due to oil sands industry growth. Sixty-four per cent of all responding federal, provincial, and municipal government organizations have reported shortages in their work environments, and almost 8 in 10 organizations predict they will continue to be understaffed in the next 3 to 5 years. Tightness in the general labour market will have an impact on employers in remote locations, and planning is essential to avoid the creation of a mercenary culture and a reliance on compensation. Challenges found in remote locations include high turnover rates among recent hires; critical gaps in service length; aggressive retirement; and the fact that the local population is often seen as unqualified for many industrial jobs. This Power Point presentation suggested that although decisions to join or quit a company are often based on considerations such as the organizational environment and amount of compensation, the relationship between employees and management is the most important attribute in many career decisions. Rigorous quantitative analysis of current demographics combined with forecasting analysis may help to forestall recruitment difficulties for many companies. Productivity analyses, and the effects of work overload on absenteeism, attrition and quality of workmanship must also be examined. Many companies are now focusing on retention and development strategies on mid-career staff to address depletion, as well as redesigning procedures to operate with less skilled staff. It was concluded that extra efforts are now being made to attract non-traditional employees, and non-traditional employment models are being considered by some companies. refs., tabs., figs.

  20. Demographic Consequences of Defeating Aging

    OpenAIRE

    Gavrilov, Leonid A.; Gavrilova, Natalia S.

    2010-01-01

    A common objection against starting a large-scale biomedical war on aging is the fear of catastrophic population consequences (overpopulation). This fear is only exacerbated by the fact that no detailed demographic projections for radical life extension scenario have been conducted so far. This study explores different demographic scenarios and population projections, in order to clarify what could be the demographic consequences of a successful biomedical war on aging. A general conclusion o...

  1. Eating habits of a population undergoing a rapid dietary transition: portion sizes of traditional and non-traditional foods and beverages consumed by Inuit adults in Nunavut, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehy, Tony; Roache, Cindy; Sharma, Sangita

    2013-06-02

    To determine the portion sizes of traditional and non-traditional foods being consumed by Inuit adults in three remote communities in Nunavut, Canada. A cross-sectional study was carried out between June and October, 2008. Trained field workers collected dietary data using a culturally appropriate, validated quantitative food frequency questionnaire (QFFQ) developed specifically for the study population. Caribou, muktuk (whale blubber and skin) and Arctic char (salmon family), were the most commonly consumed traditional foods; mean portion sizes for traditional foods ranged from 10 g for fermented seal fat to 424 g for fried caribou. Fried bannock and white bread were consumed by >85% of participants; mean portion sizes for these foods were 189 g and 70 g, respectively. Sugar-sweetened beverages and energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods were also widely consumed. Mean portion sizes for regular pop and sweetened juices with added sugar were 663 g and 572 g, respectively. Mean portion sizes for potato chips, pilot biscuits, cakes, chocolate and cookies were 59 g, 59 g, 106 g, 59 g, and 46 g, respectively. The present study provides further evidence of the nutrition transition that is occurring among Inuit in the Canadian Arctic. It also highlights a number of foods and beverages that could be targeted in future nutritional intervention programs aimed at obesity and diet-related chronic disease prevention in these and other Inuit communities.

  2. Using Global Trends as Catalysts for City Transition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gebalska, Bogna Anna

    2017-01-01

    Urbanization process is triggered by population growth and technological advancement. Cities are accumulating global dynamics, gathering flows of people, energies and consequent risks. As a result, our habitat is facing a rapid transition [1]. City can use opportunities of momentum, planning...... stimulate cities and how to employ them in a development process, in order to achieve a successful city transition. Searching for essential elements directing towards inclusive and successful city transition, the urbanization is studied. Global processes influence cities significantly with individual...... and acting in response to the events or it can miss the chance, losing in the global competition. There is a considerable interest in finding, what influences city's prosperity. Global trends and the socio-demographic evolution are recognized as main overall powers. This study examines how these forces...

  3. Towards a new pattern of transition to adulthood?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Billari, F.; Liefbroer, A.C.

    2010-01-01

    Second Demographic TransitionRecent theories about social and demographic change, such as individualization and the Second Demographic Transition, embed the notion of a convergence towards a specific ideal-typical pathway to adulthood, which we define as late, protracted and complex. After a

  4. The Heliopause Electrostatic Rapid Transit System (HERTS) - Design, Trades, and Analyses Performed in a Two Year NASA Investigation of Electric Sail Propulsion Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiegmann, Bruce M.; Scheider, Todd; Heaton, Andrew; Vaughn, Jason; Stone, Nobie; Wright, Ken

    2017-01-01

    Personnel from NASA's MSFC have been investigating the feasibility of an advanced propulsion system known as the Electric Sail (E-Sail) for future scientific exploration missions. This team initially won a NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) Phase I NASA Innovative Advanced Concept (NIAC) award and then a two-year follow-on Phase II NIAC award in October 2015. This paper documents the findings from this three-year investigation. An Electric sail, a propellant-less propulsion system, uses solar wind ions to rapidly travel either to deep space or the inner solar system. Scientific spacecraft could reach Pluto in 5 years, or the boundary of the solar system in ten to twelve years compared to the thirty-five plus years the Voyager spacecraft took. The team's recent focuses have been: 1) Developing a Particle in Cell (PIC) numeric engineering model from MSFC's experimental data on the interaction between simulated solar wind and a charged bare wire that can be applied to a variety of missions, 2) Determining what missions could benefit from this revolutionary propulsion system, 3) Conceptualizing spacecraft designs for various tasks: to reach the solar system's edge, to orbit the sun as Heliophysics sentinels, or to examine a multitude of asteroids.

  5. Eating habits of a population undergoing a rapid dietary transition: portion sizes of traditional and non-traditional foods and beverages consumed by Inuit adults in Nunavut, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background To determine the portion sizes of traditional and non-traditional foods being consumed by Inuit adults in three remote communities in Nunavut, Canada. Methods A cross-sectional study was carried out between June and October, 2008. Trained field workers collected dietary data using a culturally appropriate, validated quantitative food frequency questionnaire (QFFQ) developed specifically for the study population. Results Caribou, muktuk (whale blubber and skin) and Arctic char (salmon family), were the most commonly consumed traditional foods; mean portion sizes for traditional foods ranged from 10 g for fermented seal fat to 424 g for fried caribou. Fried bannock and white bread were consumed by >85% of participants; mean portion sizes for these foods were 189 g and 70 g, respectively. Sugar-sweetened beverages and energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods were also widely consumed. Mean portion sizes for regular pop and sweetened juices with added sugar were 663 g and 572 g, respectively. Mean portion sizes for potato chips, pilot biscuits, cakes, chocolate and cookies were 59 g, 59 g, 106 g, 59 g, and 46 g, respectively. Conclusions The present study provides further evidence of the nutrition transition that is occurring among Inuit in the Canadian Arctic. It also highlights a number of foods and beverages that could be targeted in future nutritional intervention programs aimed at obesity and diet-related chronic disease prevention in these and other Inuit communities. PMID:23724920

  6. Managing demographic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strack, Rainer; Baier, Jens; Fahlander, Anders

    2008-02-01

    In developed nations, the workforce is aging rapidly. That trend has serious implications. Companies could face severe labor shortages in a few years as workers retire, taking critical knowledge with them. Businesses may also see productivity decline among older employees, especially in physically demanding jobs. The authors, partners at Boston Consulting Group, offer managers a systematic way to assess these dual threats--capacity risk and productivity risk--at their companies. It involves studying the age distribution of their employees to see if large percentages fall within high age brackets and then projecting--by location, unit, and job category--how the distribution will change over the next 15 years. Managers must also factor in both the impact of strategic moves on personnel needs and the future supply of workers in the market. When RWE Power analyzed its trends, the company learned that in 2018 almost 80% of its workers would be over 50. What's more, in certain critical areas its labor surplus was about to become a sizable shortfall. For instance, a shortage of specialized engineers would develop in the company just as their ranks in the job market thinned and competition to hire them intensified. Reversing its downsizing course, RWE Power took steps to increase its supply of workers in those key positions. The authors show how companies that face talent gaps, as RWE Power did, can close them through training, transfers, recruitment, retention, productivity improvements, and outsourcing. They also describe measures that companies can take to keep older workers productive, including workplace accommodations, revised compensation structures, performance incentives, and targeted health care management. The key is to identify and address potential problems early. Firms that do so will gain an edge on rivals that are still relentlessly focused on reducing head count.

  7. JIEDDO Experience Provides Rapid Acquisition Insights

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    James P Craft

    2015-01-01

    .... JIDA's rapid acquisition capabilities were preserved by transitioning the expedient organization that received supplemental funding into the Defense Department's newest combat support agency (CSA...

  8. EJSCREEN Demographic Indicators 2016 Public

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — EJSCREEN uses demographic factors as very general indicators of a community's potential susceptibility to the types of environmental factors included in this...

  9. EJSCREEN Demographic Indicators 2015 Public

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — EJSCREEN uses demographic factors as very general indicators of a community's potential susceptibility to the types of environmental factors included in this...

  10. SOCIAL DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND AUTISM

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    KAYUET LIU; NOAM ZERUBAVEL; PETER BEARMAN

    2010-01-01

    ...—is strongly associated with an increased risk of autism. By turning a social demographic lens on the historical patterning of concordance among twin pairs, we identify a central mechanism for this association...

  11. [Demographic change and political representation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, S

    1990-06-01

    The political implications of demographic aging in Italy are reviewed. The main features identified are a shift in the balance of the electorate toward the south, and the increasing electoral importance of older voters.

  12. The Professoriate: A Demographic Profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Shirley M.; Corcoran, Mary

    1987-01-01

    An analysis of college faculty demographics looks at faculty distribution over institution types, the relationships of career status, sex, age, and salary, and three emergent faculty subgroups: women, minorities, and part-time faculty. (MSE)

  13. Fertility, Human Capital, and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Andrew

    2009-01-01

    Do low fertility and population aging lead to economic decline if couples have fewer children, but invest more in each child? By addressing this question, this article extends previous work in which the authors show that population aging leads to an increased demand for wealth that can, under some conditions, lead to increased capital per worker and higher per capita consumption. This article is based on an overlapping generations (OLG) model which highlights the quantity–quality tradeoff and the links between human capital investment and economic growth. It incorporates new national level estimates of human capital investment produced by the National Transfer Accounts project. Simulation analysis is employed to show that, even in the absence of the capital dilution effect, low fertility leads to higher per capita consumption through human capital accumulation, given plausible model parameters. PMID:20495605

  14. DEMOGRAPHIC VULNERABILITIES IN TECUCI PLAIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulian Adrian ŞORCARU

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The study focuses on analyzing and mapping 8 indicators considered to best reflect the demographic vulnerability in Tecuci Plain in the year 2010 and proposes a model of aggregation which finally allows us to distinguish three major types of demographic vulnerability (low, medium and high. Mapping the final values also shows significant disparities in the territorial administrative units that broadly overlap the plain, the most vulnerable being Tecuci city and the peripheral communes, towards Vrancea and Vaslui Counties.

  15. Demographic change and income distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Weizsacker, R K

    1989-03-01

    This paper examines the interactions between demographic change and income distribution, especially in the context of government. Starting from a simple, descriptive life-cycle model of individual income, this paper established an explicit link between the age composition of a population and the personal distribution of incomes. Demographic effects on income inequality are derived. Next, 2 income maintenance programs are introduced: a redistributive tax-transfer scheme and a pay-as-you-go financed state pension system. The resulting government budget constraints entail interrelations between fiscal and demographic variables, causing an additional, indirect demographic impact on the distribution. This is shown not only to change, but in some cases even to reverse the distributional incidence of demographic trends. The superimposition of different age structures on populations of otherwise identical characteristics is non-neutral with respect to income distribution: disregarding state interventions, population aging increases income inequality. This result may no longer generally hold if redistribution policies are taken into account. The paper provides an example of how indirect demographic effects may lead to a reversal of sign. In the absence of any government program, a higher ratio of pensioners to active workers raises income inequality. In the presence of a redistributive tax-transfer scheme and pay-as-you-go financed state pension system, a higher dependency ratio decreases income dispersion. The restoration of government budget equilibrium induces unintended distributional effects which put the incidence of demographic shifts in a different light. Varying important aging indicator with realistic forecast bounds leads to inequality fluctuations up to 35%. This illustrates the quantitative scale and hence the political importance of demographically caused inequality distortions.

  16. Demographic Future of Gorski Kotar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Lajić

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Demographic development of Gorski Kotar has largely been a reflection of unfavourable natural-geographic and socio-economic circumstances, which had impelled emigration of the population from this region already by the end of the 19th century, and this process has not stopped till nowadays. The decrease in the total number of inhabitants has been strongly influenced by decades of emigration. Since the 1960s, negative natural movements have significantly contributed to total depopulation. Based on the analysis of negative demographic processes in the Gorski Kotar region, several kinds of demographic projections have been made for the period until 2021. According to these projections, further negative demographic tendencies and additional diminution of the Gorski Kotar population, as well as a negative birth-rate and the erosion of all demographic and economic structures are expected. Population ageing will be a fundamental determinant of future demographic development of the observed area, because every third inhabitant will be more than 60 years old and this points to potential problems in the social and economic development of the region.

  17. Geo-Demographic Risks in the Apuseni Mountains. Demographic Ageing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GABRIELA-ALINA MUREŞAN

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The territorial system of the Apuseni Mountains can be considered a critical region from a geo-demographic viewpoint. This is due to two major geo-demographic risks that affect it at present, namely the massive migration, mainly of the young and adult population, and the severe decrease in birth rate, also as a consequence of migration. These two processes determine the main two geo-demographic risks within the Apuseni Mountains: on the one hand, depopulation and the geo-demographic decline of the settlements and, on the other hand, population ageing. The present study aims to analyse the latter by focussing on the Land of the Moţi. Conclusions emphasise a rather severe process of demographic ageing. The rate of the old age group increased from 17.9% in 1992 to 25.2% in 2011. All the 16 administrative-territorial units under analysis recorded an increase in the rate of the old age group. In 2011, the ratio of the extreme age groups (young population/old age group is above the unit (1 both in the region as a whole and in the majority of its administrative units.

  18. Socio-Demographic Variables Associated With Aids Epidemic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Socio-Demographic Variables Associated With Aids Epidemic: Evidence From The Organization For Economic Cooperation And Development And The African Countries. ... The Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) has been spreading rapidly worldwide for the past two decades, causing a variety of symptoms known as ...

  19. Demographic resilience of territorial island birds to extinction: the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Since 1600, a disproportionate number of avian extinctions have occurred among flightless and island-dwelling species. Some of these happened very rapidly, implying that such populations had low resilience to perturbation. In managing insular populations, there is a need to be able to predict their demographic ...

  20. Changing Faces: Suburban School Response to Demographic Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Andrea E.

    2007-01-01

    As minority populations continue to grow, suburban school systems will bear a larger responsibility for educating students of color. Rapid demographic change may mean that students of color could walk into suburban schools ill prepared to address their academic and social needs. The focus of this study was to examine how and why several suburban…

  1. [Impact of health transition on services demand].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuri-Morales, Pablo Antonio

    2011-01-01

    Health transition is a process that determines the way a population dies and gets sick, there are several processes that contribute to the change in the health profile of a population that might be analyzed. The demographic transition, reflected in population aging and change of population structure; risk transition, which explains differential exposures to risk factors; technologic transition, as a major contributor to change in health and the epidemiologic transition that explains how the social, economic and demographic determinants impact the epidemiologic profile of a society. An analysis of the current health profile in Mexico is shown and its consequences on the health system and the need for change is discussed.

  2. Radiocarbon-dating and ancient DNA reveal rapid replacement of extinct prehistoric penguins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rawlence, Nicolas J.; Perry, George L. W.; Smith, Ian W. G.; Scofield, R. Paul; Tennyson, Alan J. D.; Matisoo-Smith, Elizabeth A.; Boessenkool, Sanne; Austin, Jeremy J.; Waters, Jonathan M.

    2015-03-01

    Prehistoric faunal extinctions dramatically reshaped biological assemblages around the world. However, the timing of such biotic shifts is often obscured by the fragmentary nature and limited temporal resolution of fossil records. We use radiocarbon-dating and ancient-DNA analysis of prehistoric (ca A.D. 1450-1834) Megadyptes penguin specimens to assess the time-frame of biological turnover in coastal New Zealand following human settlement. These data suggest that the final extirpation of the endemic Megadyptes waitaha, and subsequent replacement by the previously sub-Antarctic-limited Megadyptes antipodes, likely occurred within a narrow temporal window (e.g. a century or less). This transition represents one of the most rapid prehistoric faunal turnover events documented, and is likely linked to human demographic and cultural transitions during the 15th Century. Our results suggest that anthropogenic forces can trigger rapid biogeographic shifts.

  3. Digital divide in Serbia from demographic perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milovanović Slavoljub M.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Digital divide is a term that defines differences and inequality between various groups of population considering opportunities and abilities for access and use of information and communication technologies (ICT, particularly the Internet. Digital divide can be viewed from regional and global aspect, so there are significant differences between regions in a country and between countries, considering the use of ICT. On the global level, there are the countries where a great part of the population has access to ICT and countries where that is not the case. Serbia as a country that is in transition period belongs to the second group of countries. In addition, digital divide exists on a country level, because in south-east region of Serbia relatively small number of people has access to ICT comparing to the other regions. The paper just treats problem of digital divide on the example of Republic of Serbia, with specific view to demographic aspect of the problem.

  4. Social demographic change and autism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Kayuet; Zerubavel, Noam; Bearman, Peter

    2010-05-01

    Parental age at child's birth--which has increased for U.S. children in the 1992-2000 birth cohorts--is strongly associated with an increased risk of autism. By turning a social demographic lens on the historical patterning of concordance among twin pairs, we identify a central mechanism for this association: de novo mutations, which are deletions, insertions, and duplications of DNA in the germ cells that are not present in the parents' DNA. Along the way, we show that a demographic eye on the rising prevalence of autism leads to three major discoveries. First, the estimated heritability of autism has been dramatically overstated. Second, heritability estimates can change over remarkably short periods of time because of increases in germ cell mutations. Third, social demographic change can yield genetic changes that, at the population level, combine to contribute to the increased prevalence of autism.

  5. Heliopause Electrostatic Rapid Transit System (HERTS) Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The motivation for this technology comes from the Heliophysics Decadal Survey. The Heliophysics Decadal Survey, Section 10.5.2.7 states in part; “…...

  6. Automatic Control of Personal Rapid Transit Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, P. D.

    1972-01-01

    The requirements for automatic longitudinal control of a string of closely packed personal vehicles are outlined. Optimal control theory is used to design feedback controllers for strings of vehicles. An important modification of the usual optimal control scheme is the inclusion of jerk in the cost functional. While the inclusion of the jerk term was considered, the effect of its inclusion was not sufficiently studied. Adding the jerk term will increase passenger comfort.

  7. Exponential state transition dynamics in the rest-activity architecture of patients with bipolar disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Abigail; Bradler, Kamil; Radu, Luiza; Alda, Martin; Rusak, Benjamin

    2016-03-01

    Our goal was to model the temporal dynamics of sleep-wake transitions, represented by transitions between rest and activity obtained from actigraphic data, in patients with bipolar disorder using a probabilistic state transition approach. We collected actigraphic data for 14 days from 20 euthymic patients with bipolar disorder, who had been characterized clinically, demographically, and with respect to their circadian preferences (chronotype). We processed each activity record to generate a series of transitions in both directions between the states of rest (R) and activity (A) and plotted the estimated transition probabilities (pRA and pAR). Each 24-hour period was also divided into a rest phase consisting of the eight consecutive least active hours in each day and an active phase consisting of the 16 consecutive most active hours in each day. We then calculated separate transition probabilities for each of these phases for each participant. We subsequently modeled the rest phase data to find the best fit for rest-activity transitions using maximum likelihood estimation. We also examined the association of transition probabilities with clinical and demographic variables. The best-fit model for rest-activity transitions during the rest phase was a mixture (bimodal) of exponential functions. Of those patients with rapid cycling, 75% had an evening-type chronotype. Patients with bipolar II disorder taking antidepressants had a lower probability of transitioning back to rest than those not on antidepressants [mean ± SD = 0.050 ± 0.006 versus 0.141 ± 0.058, F(1,15) = 3.40, p bipolar disorder can be accounted for by a mixture (bimodal) of exponential functions. Patients taking antidepressants had a reduced probability of sustaining and returning to sleep. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Assistência pública de saúde no contexto da transição demográfica brasileira: exigências atuais e futuras The public healthcare system in the context of Brazil's demographic transition: current and future demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio da Cruz Gouveia Mendes

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Este estudo avalia a assistência hospitalar e ambulatorial e sua capacidade de responder às novas exigências neste contexto da transição demográfica brasileira. As informações foram obtidas dos estudos do IBGE, e sistemas de informações assistenciais do SUS (CNES, SIH e SIA. A redução das taxas de natalidade, fecundidade, mortalidade infantil e aumento da expectativa de vida ao nascer determinam ainda um crescimento demográfico, com redução da taxa de dependência, o que permite uma oportunidade para promover ajustes necessários. Entre 1999 e 2009, a população cresceu em mais 27,5 milhões de habitantes com redução de 26,7% dos leitos e 947 mil internações com distorções na distribuição por clínicas, mas com aumento da assistência de alta complexidade ambulatorial e hospitalar. Os resultados demonstram que vivemos um momento de transição do modelo assistencial que exige maior capacidade de planejamento do futuro da assistência à saúde, tornando mais complexa a rede assistencial e repensando o modelo de atenção à saúde, preparando-se para o grande crescimento da população idosa nas próximas décadas.This paper assesses inpatient and outpatient care and their capacity to respond to changing demands in the context of the demographic transition in Brazil. The data were obtained from studies by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE and databases in the National Health System (CNES, SIH, and SIA. The reduction in birth, fertility, and infant mortality rates and the increase in life expectancy at birth are still driving population growth, while decreasing the dependency rate, thereby providing the opportunity to make necessary adjustments. The population increased by more than 27.5 million from 1999 to 2009, with a 26.7% reduction in hospital beds and 947,000 hospitalizations, with distortions in the distribution by specialty, but with increases in high-complexity outpatient and inpatient care

  9. Racial Diversity in the Suburbs: How Race-Neutral Responses to Demographic Change Perpetuate Inequity in Suburban School Districts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diem, Sarah; Welton, Anjalé D.; Frankenberg, Erica; Jellison Holme, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Suburbs across the US are experiencing dramatic demographic shifts, yet there is little research available on how suburban school districts are dealing with these changes. In this article, we examine the discourses surrounding race and demographic change in three suburban school districts that have been undergoing rapid demographic changes and…

  10. Logistics Dynamics and Demographic Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klumpp, Matthias; Abidi, Hella; Bioly, Sascha; Buchkremer, Rüdiger; Ebener, Stefan; Sandhaus, Gregor; Freitag, Michael; Kotzab, Herbert; Pannek, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    Change and dynamics in logistics are interestingly driven at the same time by external as well as internal forces. This contribution outlines a big data literature review methodology to overview recognizable external changes and analyzes the interaction of one major trend—demographic change—further

  11. [The demographic history of Majorca].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segura, A; Suau, J

    1986-03-01

    Data from parochial records, censuses, and other sources are analyzed to study the demographic changes that occurred between 1590 and 1789 in the Spanish island of Majorca. Topics covered include population density, spatial distribution, urbanization, infant mortality, and fertility. A bibliography of 86 references is included.

  12. Different routes of demographic changes in former Eastern bloc states at the turn of the 21st century based on the examples of Poland and Ukraine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flaga, Małgorzata

    2012-01-01

    The article concerns the most important demographic processes that took place in two post-communist countries, Poland and Ukraine, after 1990. These countries differ in terms of economic changes that they have gone through so far. In case of Poland we may consider it as a success in reforming the economy, despite the fact that it caused certain negative social phenomena, e.g. large unemployment. On the other hand, in Ukraine, economic crisis was not stopped, but it is also deepening and its results have become significant modifiers of population processes. The changes in population number, natural growth and migration in both countries are the subjects of detailed analyses. They were presented in the context of the "secondary demographic transition", which Poland and Ukraine entered rapidly at the beginning of 1990, along with economic transformation and social changes.

  13. Baby Boomers and Beds: a Demographic Challenge for the Ages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Zirui; Ferris, Timothy G

    2017-12-22

    The United States is facing a significant demographic transition, with about 10,000 baby boomers turning age 65 each day. At the same time, the nation is experiencing a similarly striking transition in hospital capacity, as the supply of hospital beds has declined in recent decades. The juxtaposition of population aging and hospital capacity portends a potentially widening divergence between supply and demand for hospital care. We provide a closer look at current hospital capacity and a rethinking of the future role of hospital beds in meeting the needs of an aging population.

  14. Empowerment translated to transition

    OpenAIRE

    Chatterjee, Susmita

    2017-01-01

    This is well noted that women have been subjugated by the throes of patriarchy. They have been bounded by certain gendered social and cultural norms.In this study, we have found that being empowered by joining the self help gropus and with change in lifestyle factors along with sense of self esteem women influence the child birth decision which is leading to demographic transition irrespectiv of their settlement places.

  15. Feasibility of utilizing the SD BIOLINE Onchocerciasis IgG4 rapid test in onchocerciasis surveillance in Senegal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieye, Yakou; Storey, Helen L; Barrett, Kelsey L; Gerth-Guyette, Emily; Di Giorgio, Laura; Golden, Allison; Faulx, Dunia; Kalnoky, Michael; Ndiaye, Marie Khemesse Ngom; Sy, Ngayo; Mané, Malang; Faye, Babacar; Sarr, Mamadou; Dioukhane, Elhadji Mamadou; Peck, Roger B; Guinot, Philippe; de Los Santos, Tala

    2017-10-01

    As effective onchocerciasis control efforts in Africa transition to elimination efforts, different diagnostic tools are required to support country programs. Senegal, with its long standing, successful control program, is transitioning to using the SD BIOLINE Onchocerciasis IgG4 (Ov16) rapid test over traditional skin snip microscopy. The aim of this study is to demonstrate the feasibility of integrating the Ov16 rapid test into onchocerciasis surveillance activities in Senegal, based on the following attributes of acceptability, usability, and cost. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 13 villages in southeastern Senegal in May 2016. Individuals 5 years and older were invited to participate in a demographic questionnaire, an Ov16 rapid test, a skin snip biopsy, and an acceptability interview. Rapid test technicians were interviewed and a costing analysis was conducted. Of 1,173 participants, 1,169 (99.7%) agreed to the rapid test while 383 (32.7%) agreed to skin snip microscopy. The sero-positivity rate of the rapid test among those tested was 2.6% with zero positives 10 years and younger. None of the 383 skin snips were positive for Ov microfilaria. Community members appreciated that the rapid test was performed quickly, was not painful, and provided reliable results. The total costs for this surveillance activity was $22,272.83, with a cost per test conducted at $3.14 for rapid test, $7.58 for skin snip microscopy, and $13.43 for shared costs. If no participants had refused skin snip microscopy, the total cost per method with shared costs would have been around $16 per person tested. In this area with low onchocerciasis sero-positivity, there was high acceptability and perceived value of the rapid test by community members and technicians. This study provides evidence of the feasibility of implementing the Ov16 rapid test in Senegal and may be informative to other country programs transitioning to Ov16 serologic tools.

  16. The influence of socio-demographic factors on the nutritional status ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-09-25

    Sep 25, 2012 ... Keywords: nutritional intake, socio-demographic, obesity, children, overweight. The influence of socio-demographic factors on the nutritional status of children in the Stellenbosch area, Western Cape. Introduction. Obesity has rapidly become one of the most important medical and public health problems of ...

  17. Demographic development in selected microregions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Palát

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is aimed at the population development analysis of the Běleč, Lučina, Cézava and Podluží regions. In the studied period an increase in the mid-year population occurred, the proportion of women was predominant. As for demographic indicators, following parameters were evaluated: the number of population, the structure of population according to sex and age, death rate, birth-rate, marriage rate, divorce rate and migration. To express the development prediction of these indicators methods of time series were used. The population is getting older due to the extending live expectancy and decreasing mortality rate. The demographic aging of the population brings about a number of economic and social impacts, which require treatment both on the all-society and regional level.

  18. Bet Hedging against Demographic Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, BingKan; Leibler, Stanislas

    2017-09-01

    Biological organisms have to cope with stochastic variations in both the external environment and the internal population dynamics. Theoretical studies and laboratory experiments suggest that population diversification could be an effective bet-hedging strategy for adaptation to varying environments. Here we show that bet hedging can also be effective against demographic fluctuations that pose a trade-off between growth and survival for populations even in a constant environment. A species can maximize its overall abundance in the long term by diversifying into coexisting subpopulations of both "fast-growing" and "better-surviving" individuals. Our model generalizes statistical physics models of birth-death processes to incorporate dispersal, during which new populations are founded, and can further incorporate variations of local environments. In this way, we unify different bet-hedging strategies against demographic and environmental variations as a general means of adaptation to both types of uncertainties in population growth.

  19. Demographic estimation methods for plants with dormancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kéry, M.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Demographic studies in plants appear simple because unlike animals, plants do not run away. Plant individuals can be marked with, e.g., plastic tags, but often the coordinates of an individual may be sufficient to identify it. Vascular plants in temperate latitudes have a pronounced seasonal life–cycle, so most plant demographers survey their study plots once a year often during or shortly after flowering. Life–states are pervasive in plants, hence the results of a demographic study for an individual can be summarized in a familiar encounter history, such as 0VFVVF000. A zero means that an individual was not seen in a year and a letter denotes its state for years when it was seen aboveground. V and F here stand for vegetative and flowering states, respectively. Probabilities of survival and state transitions can then be obtained by mere counting. Problems arise when there is an unobservable dormant state, i.e., when plants may stay belowground for one or more growing seasons. Encounter histories such as 0VF00F000 may then occur where the meaning of zeroes becomes ambiguous. A zero can either mean a dead or a dormant plant. Various ad hoc methods in wide use among plant ecologists have made strong assumptions about when a zero should be equated to a dormant individual. These methods have never been compared among each other. In our talk and in Kéry et al. (submitted, we show that these ad hoc estimators provide spurious estimates of survival and should not be used. In contrast, if detection probabilities for aboveground plants are known or can be estimated, capturerecapture (CR models can be used to estimate probabilities of survival and state–transitions and the fraction of the population that is dormant. We have used this approach in two studies of terrestrial orchids, Cleistes bifaria (Kéry et al., submitted and Cypripedium reginae (Kéry & Gregg, submitted in West Virginia, U.S.A. For Cleistes, our data comprised one population with a

  20. Demographic consequences of defeating aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrilov, Leonid A; Gavrilova, Natalia S

    2010-01-01

    A common objection against starting a large-scale biomedical war on aging is the fear of catastrophic population consequences (overpopulation). This fear is only exacerbated by the fact that no detailed demographic projections for radical life extension scenario have been conducted so far. This study explores different demographic scenarios and population projections, in order to clarify what could be the demographic consequences of a successful biomedical war on aging. A general conclusion of this study is that population changes are surprisingly slow in their response to a dramatic life extension. For example, we applied the cohort-component method of population projections to 2005 Swedish population for several scenarios of life extension and a fertility schedule observed in 2005. Even for very long 100-year projection horizon, with the most radical life extension scenario (assuming no aging at all after age 60), the total population increases by 22% only (from 9.1 to 11.0 million). Moreover, if some members of society reject to use new anti-aging technologies for some religious or any other reasons (inconvenience, non-compliance, fear of side effects, costs, etc.), then the total population size may even decrease over time. Thus, even in the case of the most radical life extension scenario, population growth could be relatively slow and may not necessarily lead to overpopulation. Therefore, the real concerns should be placed not on the threat of catastrophic population consequences (overpopulation), but rather on such potential obstacles to a success of biomedical war on aging, as scientific, organizational, and financial limitations.

  1. Economic Effects of Demographic Ageing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Litra A.V.

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Romania goes through profound changes due to unprecedented demographic developments. As a result of declining birth rates and emigration after 1990, by the year 2060 is looming a possible doubling of the percentage of the population 65 years and over, from 15 to 30%, and the working age population to fall by about 30 percent. Deterioration of the relationship between labour force and inactive population leads to pressure on the public budget and tax system, strains on pension and social security systems, redefining consumer preferences, type and size of the saved or spent amounts, higher demand for healthcare services, increasing poverty risk for elderly households.

  2. Chiropractors in Finland – a demographic survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malmqvist Stefan

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Finnish chiropractic profession is young and not fully accepted by Finnish healthcare authorities. The demographic profile and style of practice has not been described to date. However, as the profession seems to be under rapid development, it would be of interest to stakeholders, both chiropractic and political, to obtain a baseline description of this profession with a view to the development of future goals and strategies for the profession. The purpose of this study was to describe the chiropractic profession in Finland in relation to its demographic background, the demographics of their clinics, practice patterns, interactions with other health care practitioners and some of the professions' plans for the future. Methods A structured questionnaire survey was conducted in 2005, in which all 50 members of the Finnish Chiropractic Union were invited to participate. Results In all, 44 questionnaires were returned (response rate 88%. Eighty percent of the respondents were men, and 77% were aged 30 to 44 years old, most of whom graduated after 1990 with either a university-based bachelors' or masters' degree in chiropractic. Solo practice was their main practice pattern. The vast majority described their scope of practice to be based on a musculoskeletal approach, using the Diversified Technique, performing Soft Tissue Therapy and about two-thirds also used an Activator Instrument (mechanical adjusting instrument. The mean number of patient visits reported to have been seen weekly was 59 of which nine were new patients. Most practitioners found this number of patients satisfactory. At the initial consultation, 80% of respondents spent 30–45 minutes with their patients, 75% spent 20–30 minutes with "new old" patients and on subsequent visits 80% of respondents spent 15–30 minutes. Interactions with other health care professions were reasonably good and most of chiropractors intended to remain within the profession

  3. Turkey between two worlds: a demographic view.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, C F

    1982-01-01

    A demographic view of Turkey is presented in this discussion. Turkey provides another example of a country, ravaged by war losses between 1914-1922, which took 4 decades, from the mid1920s to the mid1960s, to move from a pronatalist policy to an understanding of the social, economic, and most recently the political dangers of rampant population growth. The 1st census, taken in Turkey in 1927, showed a population of 13,648,270 living in an area of 299,294 square miles, substantially equal to its present dimensions. In mid1977 the population surpassed 42 million, and it reached 45.6 million in mid1980 estimates. The population grew by only 5.4% in the 1940-1945 intercensal period. With the return to normalcy following the war, Turkey's high wartime death rate (almost 40/1000 between 1940 and 1945) declined rapidly and population growth began to accelerate. It was toward the end of the 1950s that concern began to be expressed about the rapid population growth the country was experiencing. The Ministry of Health and Social Affairs and the State Planning Organization began to study the implications of the increase for future social and economic development. This reconsideration of the previous pronatalist policy, which had forbidden the dissemination of birth control supplies or information, received a stimulus following the coup of 1960 that brought the military to power. Under military rule from May 1960 to November 1961 an antinatalist position emerged and was incorporated in the 1963-1967 5 year plan and later in the Population Planning Law, No. 557, enacted in 1965. Law 557 was permissive yet essentially neutral. It did not interfere with the private decisions of couples to plan family size but it offered them contraceptive supplies and information free or at low cost as well as education in population matters. Abortion was legalized if the mother's health were endangered, but it was not allowed otherwise. Sterilization was prohibited. The implementation of these

  4. Socio?demographic predictors of sleep complaints in indigenous Siberians with a mixed economy

    OpenAIRE

    Wilson, Hannah J.; Klimova, Tatiana M.; Knuston, Kristen L.; Fedorova, Valentina I.; Fedorov, Afanasy; Yegorovna, Baltakhinova M.; Leonard, William R

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objectives: Socio?demographic indicators closely relate to sleep in industrialized populations. However we know very little about how such factors impact sleep in populations undergoing industrialization. Within populations transitioning to the global economy, the preliminary evidence has found an inconsistent relationship between socio?demographics and sleep complaints across countries and social strata. Materials and methods: Surveys were conducted on a sample of rural Sakha (Yakut...

  5. Rapid Prototyping

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-01-01

    Javelin, a Lone Peak Engineering Inc. Company has introduced the SteamRoller(TM) System as a commercial product. The system was designed by Javelin during a Phase II NASA funded small commercial product. The purpose of the invention was to allow automated-feed of flexible ceramic tapes to the Laminated Object Manufacturing rapid prototyping equipment. The ceramic material that Javelin was working with during the Phase II project is silicon nitride. This engineered ceramic material is of interest for space-based component.

  6. Transitional Justice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gissel, Line Engbo

    This presentation builds on an earlier published article, 'Contemporary Transitional Justice: Normalising a Politics of Exception'. It argues that the field of transitional justice has undergone a shift in conceptualisation and hence practice. Transitional justice is presently understood to be th...

  7. Health system strengthening in Cambodia-a case study of health policy response to social transition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grundy, John; Khut, Qiu Yi; Oum, Sophal; Annear, Peter; Ky, Veng

    2009-10-01

    Cambodia, following decades of civil conflict and social and economic transition, has in the last 10 years developed health policy innovations in the areas of health contracting, health financing and health planning. This paper aims to outline recent social, epidemiological and demographic health trends in Cambodia, and on the basis of this outline, to analyse and discuss these policy responses to social transition. Sources of information included a literature review, participant observation in health planning development in Cambodia between 1993 and 2008, and comparative analysis of demographic health surveys between 2000 and 2005. In Cambodia there have been sharp but unequal improvements in child mortality, and persisting high maternal mortality rates. Data analysis demonstrates associations between location, education level and access to facility based care, suggesting the dominant role of socio-economic factors in determining access to facility based health care. These events are taking place against a background of rapid social transition in Cambodian history, including processes of decentralization, privatization and the development of open market economic systems. Primary policy responses of the Ministry of Health to social transition and associated health inequities include the establishment of health contracting, hospital health equity funds and public-private collaborations. Despite the internationally recognized health policy flexibility and innovation demonstrated in Cambodia, policy response still lags well behind the reality of social transition. In order to minimize the delay between transition and response, new policy making tactics are required in order to provide more flexible and timely responses to the ongoing social transition and its impacts on population health needs in the lowest socio-economic quintiles.

  8. CONSEQUENCES OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LIVIU RADU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Major dysfunctionalities can arise from the demographic decline, both on a social level and from the perspective of the economic-financial evolution of the world’s states. The obvious aging of the industrialized states’ population overlapping the import of cheap workforce in the developing countries can start mutations whose consequences are somewhat predictable but discouraging. An accelerated urbanization of the states is foreseen, as well as the decrease of birthrates, negative external migration, increase of mortality and its stagnation in a larger value than that of the birthrate, and not least the population’s aging will hinder a part of the developing countries to sustain a high rhythm of long-term economical increase. The socialeconomic consequences will be reflected in the labor market, the householders’ amount of income as well as in the education’s level. All of these aspects call for a rethinking of the public politics, especially of the social insurance’s system and of the education, a reorientation of the economy based on the increase of specializing in production and productivity, as well as a financial stability unburdened by the politics’ interference in the business environment.

  9. Demographic Processes in Hungary and their Manifestation in Small Towns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ANDRÁS TRÓCSÁNYI

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Hungary, belonging more and more to the prestigious group of developed countries, can be characterised increasingly by the demographic characteristics of that type. Ageing population, decreasing number of live births, decreasing population size are commonly used terms when analysing the demographic profile of our country. This simplified picture can be modulated and coloured with the help of spatial data. In spite of the comparatively small-sized and relatively homogenous structure of Hungary, several differences can be found. The network of small towns could be an obvious and representative sample for the spatial investigations since it almost totally covers the area of Hungary, it is numerous enough but still easy to handle. Within a Hungarian geographical context, settlements having a maximum of 30,000 inhabitants and possessing city rank can be defined as small towns. Because of their size and functions, small towns are sensitive enough to illustrate the national demographic tendencies, but they are numerous enough to be split into different groups according to their remarkably diverse character. Traditional historic small towns widely differ from the ones located in the rapidly urbanising agglomerations, even though the socialist new towns, having similar origin, reflect significant demographic variants.

  10. Rapid Airplane Parametric Input Design (RAPID)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Robert E.

    1995-01-01

    RAPID is a methodology and software system to define a class of airplane configurations and directly evaluate surface grids, volume grids, and grid sensitivity on and about the configurations. A distinguishing characteristic which separates RAPID from other airplane surface modellers is that the output grids and grid sensitivity are directly applicable in CFD analysis. A small set of design parameters and grid control parameters govern the process which is incorporated into interactive software for 'real time' visual analysis and into batch software for the application of optimization technology. The computed surface grids and volume grids are suitable for a wide range of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation. The general airplane configuration has wing, fuselage, horizontal tail, and vertical tail components. The double-delta wing and tail components are manifested by solving a fourth order partial differential equation (PDE) subject to Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions. The design parameters are incorporated into the boundary conditions and therefore govern the shapes of the surfaces. The PDE solution yields a smooth transition between boundaries. Surface grids suitable for CFD calculation are created by establishing an H-type topology about the configuration and incorporating grid spacing functions in the PDE equation for the lifting components and the fuselage definition equations. User specified grid parameters govern the location and degree of grid concentration. A two-block volume grid about a configuration is calculated using the Control Point Form (CPF) technique. The interactive software, which runs on Silicon Graphics IRIS workstations, allows design parameters to be continuously varied and the resulting surface grid to be observed in real time. The batch software computes both the surface and volume grids and also computes the sensitivity of the output grid with respect to the input design parameters by applying the precompiler tool

  11. The Intrinsic Demographics of Blazars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urry, C. Megan; Mao, Peiyuan; Brandt, Timothy D.

    2017-08-01

    Blazar surveys over the past three decades have revealed a range of spectral energy distributions (SEDs), with large systematic differences depending on survey wavelength. This means blazar samples suffer from strong selection effects. To date there has been no agreement on how to infer intrinsic population demographics from these samples, with a key issue being whether blazar jet power is related to the shape of the spectral energy distribution. We investigate this issue using Monte Carlo simulations of BL Lac and flat-spectrum radio quasar populations. We rule out the hypothesis that the SED shape is not linked to luminosity, as the simulated samples in that case disagree strongly with observed surveys. This means that the low-power blazars found primarily in X-ray surveys must be more common than the high-power blazars found primarily in radio surveys. Given an intrinsic correlation between luminosity and SED shape, our simulations predict distributions of flux, redshift, luminosity, and spectral index consistent with existing surveys. We also show that the observed evolution of X-ray-selected blazars, as measured through the average V/Vmax ratio, appears to be negative even when the underlying evolution is actually mildly positive. The apparent negative evolution of X-ray bright BL Lacs is a selection effect caused by redshifting a steeply falling UV-to-X-ray spectrum out of the X-ray band. As this conclusion would suggest, our simulations also show that the deeper the X-ray flux limit and/or the lower the frequency of the synchrotron peak in the SED, the less negative the apparent evolution.

  12. The Unaddressed Costs of Changing Student Demographics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Leslie S.; Owings, William A.

    2013-01-01

    This article discusses the impact of changing student demographics on financing education and on our national wellbeing. We begin by examining the research of current student demographics and their relationship to learning and education costs. We then calculate a 1% cost factor from the average per-pupil expenditure based on the 2011 "Digest…

  13. Demographic and Sociocultural Characteristics of Sickle Anaemia ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Significantly highernumber of people fromlowest socioeconomic class practice scarification (p=0.0001). Demographic and sociocultural factors do not appear to influence the prevalence of HBsAg among childrenwith SCAinEnugu,Nigeria. Sickle cell anaemia; Hepatitis B surface antigenaemia, Demographic, Sociocultural ...

  14. Bias and ignorance in demographic perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landy, D; Guay, B; Marghetis, T

    2017-08-31

    When it comes to knowledge of demographic facts, misinformation appears to be the norm. Americans massively overestimate the proportions of their fellow citizens who are immigrants, Muslim, LGBTQ, and Latino, but underestimate those who are White or Christian. Previous explanations of these estimation errors have invoked topic-specific mechanisms such as xenophobia or media bias. We reconsidered this pattern of errors in the light of more than 30 years of research on the psychological processes involved in proportion estimation and decision-making under uncertainty. In two publicly available datasets featuring demographic estimates from 14 countries, we found that proportion estimates of national demographics correspond closely to what is found in laboratory studies of quantitative estimates more generally. Biases in demographic estimation, therefore, are part of a very general pattern of human psychology-independent of the particular topic or demographic under consideration-that explains most of the error in estimates of the size of politically salient populations. By situating demographic estimates within a broader understanding of general quantity estimation, these results demand reevaluation of both topic-specific misinformation about demographic facts and topic-specific explanations of demographic ignorance, such as media bias and xenophobia.

  15. Demographic profile of patients diagnosed with intracranial ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Meningiomas are common brain tumours and display gender, racial and ethnic differences in their demographic profile. The demographic profile of our patients diagnosed with intracranial meningiomas is presented and compared with the literature. Objectives: To determine the age, gender, racial and ethnic ...

  16. Linking demographic processes of juvenile corals to benthic recovery trajectories in two common reef habitats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doropoulos, Christopher; Ward, Selina; Roff, George; González-Rivero, Manuel; Mumby, Peter J

    2015-01-01

    Tropical reefs are dynamic ecosystems that host diverse coral assemblages with different life-history strategies. Here, we quantified how juvenile (coral demographics influenced benthic coral structure in reef flat and reef slope habitats on the southern Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Permanent plots and settlement tiles were monitored every six months for three years in each habitat. These environments exhibited profound differences: the reef slope was characterised by 95% less macroalgal cover, and twice the amount of available settlement substrata and rates of coral settlement than the reef flat. Consequently, post-settlement coral survival in the reef slope was substantially higher than that of the reef flat, and resulted in a rapid increase in coral cover from 7 to 31% in 2.5 years. In contrast, coral cover on the reef flat remained low (~10%), whereas macroalgal cover increased from 23 to 45%. A positive stock-recruitment relationship was found in brooding corals in both habitats; however, brooding corals were not directly responsible for the observed changes in coral cover. Rather, the rapid increase on the reef slope resulted from high abundances of broadcast spawning Acropora recruits. Incorporating our results into transition matrix models demonstrated that most corals escape mortality once they exceed 50 mm, but for smaller corals mortality in brooders was double those of spawners (i.e. acroporids and massive corals). For corals on the reef flat, sensitivity analysis demonstrated that growth and mortality of larger juveniles (21-50 mm) highly influenced population dynamics; whereas the recruitment, growth and mortality of smaller corals (coral cover following large-scale perturbation in reef slope environments.

  17. [Contemplations on demographic theories (author's transl)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, W

    1979-03-01

    All demographic theories make statements on the relationship between population developments and economic developments. The demographic teachings of Adam Smith, Thomas Robert Malthus, and Karl Marx are embedded in their specific economic theories and contain ideologic statements which are not detrimental to demographic and economic sciences but a stimulus for research. The demographic theories which developed with the onset of the industrial revolution of the 19th century are all sceptical of too high populations independent of their analysis of the market mechanisms or of capitalistic production relationships. This has remained unchanged to date. The statistical evaluation of the 1980's underlines this problem. The reproductive behaviour and demographic theory of a highly industrialized economy can not be based on experience alone but must also be based on rational findings. The rejection of the prestige value of children on the reproductive behaviour which is independent of circumstances must be recognized.

  18. Transitional Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, Mary; Keating, Stacen A.

    2008-01-01

    Transitional care encompasses a broad range of services and environments designed to promote the safe and timely passage of patients between levels of health care and across care settings. High-quality transitional care is especially important for older adults with multiple chronic conditions and complex therapeutic regimens, as well as for their…

  19. The role of cultural transmission in human demographic change: an age-structured model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, L; Creanza, N; Feldman, M W

    2013-09-01

    Human populations vary demographically with population sizes ranging from small groups of hunter-gatherers with less than fifty individuals to vast cities containing many millions. Here we investigate how the cultural transmission of traits affecting survival, fertility, or both can influence the birth rate, age structure, and asymptotic growth rate of a population. We show that the strong spread of such a trait can lead to a demographic transition, similar to that experienced in Europe in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, without using ecological or economic optimizing models. We also show that the spread of a cultural trait that increases fertility, but not survival, can cause demographic change similar to the 'Neolithic demographic transition': a period of increased population growth that is thought to have accompanied the transition from hunter-gatherer to agricultural lifestyles. We investigate the roles of vertical, oblique, and horizontal learning of such a trait in this transition and find that compared to vertical learning alone, horizontal and oblique learning can accelerate the trait's spread, lead to faster population growth, and increase its equilibrium frequency. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Socio-demographic predictors of sleep complaints in indigenous Siberians with a mixed economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Hannah J; Klimova, Tatiana M; Knuston, Kristen L; Fedorova, Valentina I; Fedorov, Afanasy; Yegorovna, Baltakhinova M; Leonard, William R

    2015-08-01

    Socio-demographic indicators closely relate to sleep in industrialized populations. However we know very little about how such factors impact sleep in populations undergoing industrialization. Within populations transitioning to the global economy, the preliminary evidence has found an inconsistent relationship between socio-demographics and sleep complaints across countries and social strata. Surveys were conducted on a sample of rural Sakha (Yakut) adults (n = 168) during the autumn of 2103 to assess variation in socio-demographics and sleep complaints, including trouble sleeping and daytime sleepiness. Socio-demographic variables included age, gender, socioeconomic measures, and markers of traditional/market-based lifestyle. We tested whether the socio-demographic variables predicted sleep complaints using bivariate analyses and multiple logistic regressions. Trouble sleeping was reported by 18.5% of the participants and excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) by 17.3%. Trouble sleeping was significantly predicted by older age, female gender, and mixing traditional and market-based lifestyles. EDS was not significantly predicted by any socio-demographic variable. These findings support the few large-scale studies that found inconsistent relationships between measures of socioeconomic status and sleep complaints in transitioning populations. Employing a mix of traditional and market-based lifestyles may leave Sakha in a space of vulnerability, leading to trouble sleeping. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Using demographic data to better interpret pitfall trap catches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Matalin

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The results of pitfall trapping are often interpreted as abundance in a particular habitat. At the same time, there are numerous cases of almost unrealistically high catches of ground beetles in seemingly unsuitable sites. The correlation of catches by pitfall trapping with the true distribution and abundance of Carabidae needs corroboration. During a full year survey in 2006/07 in the Lake Elton region (Volgograd Area, Russia, 175 species of ground beetles were trapped. Considering the differences in demographic structure of the local populations, and not their abundances, three groups of species were recognized: residents, migrants and sporadic. In residents, the demographic structure of local populations is complete, and their habitats can be considered “residential”. In migrants and sporadic species, the demographic structure of the local populations is incomplete, and their habitats can be considered “transit”. Residents interact both with their prey and with each other in a particular habitat. Sporadic species are hardly important to a carabid community because of their low abundances. The contribution of migrants to the structure of carabid communities is not apparent and requires additional research. Migrants and sporadic species represent a “labile” component in ground beetles communities, as opposed to a “stable” component, represented by residents. The variability of the labile component substantially limits our interpretation of species diversity in carabid communities. Thus, the criteria for determining the most abundant, or dominant species inevitably vary because the abundance of migrants in some cases can be one order of magnitude higher than that of residents. The results of pitfall trapping adequately reflect the state of carabid communities only in zonal habitats, while azonal and disturbed habitats are merely transit ones for many species of ground beetles. A study of the demographic structure of local

  2. Transboundary water governance in the Mekong: waterscapes in transition: can the Mekong River Commission improve its institutional capacity to mitigate, mediate and resolve transboundary water-related conflict within a rapidly developing Mekong River Basin?

    OpenAIRE

    Thomson, Mark Robert Fraser

    2017-01-01

    This research thesis will explore the relationship between integrated water resource management (IWRM), water conflict and cooperation within the Mekong River Basin and the capacity of the Mekong River Commission (MRC) to influence water governance in a rapidly evolving region. The paper will also analyse the historical evolution of the MRC and its role and influence on regional water governance within a highly complex geopolitical landscape. Based on a comparative analysis of the MRC's respo...

  3. Geomagnetic polarity transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrill, Ronald T.; McFadden, Phillip L.

    1999-05-01

    The top of Earth's liquid outer core is nearly 2900 km beneath Earth's surface, so we will never be able to observe it directly. This hot, dense, molten iron-rich body is continuously in motion and is the source of Earth's magnetic field. One of the most dynamic manifestations at Earth's surface of this fluid body is, perhaps, a reversal of the geomagnetic field. Unfortunately, the most recent polarity transition occurred at about 780 ka, so we have never observed a transition directly. It seems that a polarity transition spans many human lifetimes, so no human will ever witness the phenomenon in its entirety. Thus we are left with the tantalizing prospect that paleomagnetic records of polarity transitions may betray some of the secrets of the deep Earth. Certainly, if there are systematics in the reversal process and they can be documented, then this will reveal substantial information about the nature of the lowermost mantle and of the outer core. Despite their slowness on a human timescale, polarity transitions occur almost instantaneously on a geological timescale. This rapidity, together with limitations in the paleomagnetic recording process, prohibits a comprehensive description of any reversal transition both now and into the foreseeable future, which limits the questions that may at this stage be sensibly asked. The natural model for the geomagnetic field is a set of spherical harmonic components, and we are not able to obtain a reliable model for even the first few harmonic terms during a transition. Nevertheless, it is possible, in principle, to make statements about the harmonic character of a geomagnetic polarity transition without having a rigorous spherical harmonic description of one. For example, harmonic descriptions of recent geomagnetic polarity transitions that are purely zonal can be ruled out (a zonal harmonic does not change along a line of latitude). Gleaning information about transitions has proven to be difficult, but it does seem

  4. Rapid cooling experiments and use of an anionic nuclear probe to sense the spin transition of the 1D coordination polymers [Fe(NH2trz)3]SnF6n x H2O (NH2trz=4-amino-1,2,4-triazole).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Yann; Ksenofontov, Vadim; Mentior, Sophie; Dîrtu, Marinela M; Gieck, Christine; Bhatthacharjee, Ashis; Gütlich, Philipp

    2008-01-01

    [Fe(NH2trz)3]SnF6n x H2O (NH(2)trz=4-amino-1,2,4-triazole; n=1 (1), n=0.5 (2)) are new 1D spin-crossover coordination polymers. Compound 2 exhibits an incomplete spin transition centred at around 210 K with a thermal hysteresis loop approximately 16 K wide. The spin transition of 2 was detected by the Mössbauer resonance of the 119Sn atom in the SnF6 (2-) anion primarily on the basis of the evolution of its local distortion. Rapid-cooling 57Fe Mössbauer and superconducting quantum interference device experiments allow dramatic widening of the hysteresis width of 2 from 16 K up to 82 K and also shift the spin-transition curve into the room temperature region. This unusual behaviour of quenched samples on warming is attributed to activation of the molecular motion of the anions from a frozen distorted form towards a regular form at temperatures well above approximately 210 K. Potential applications of this new family of materials are discussed.

  5. Transitional determinacies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luelsdorff, P A

    1992-01-01

    In classic generative grammar a distinction is drawn between linguistic 'competence' and linguistic 'performance', the former referring to linguistic knowledge, the latter to how linguistic knowledge is used. However, this controversial differentiation obscures the additional dichotomy between linguistic knowledge for production and linguistic knowledge for recognition. In this article it is shown that production and recognition differ, that recognition is not simply the inverse of production, and that the derivation of production from recognition and recognition from production require a small set of generalizable 'transitional determinacies'. Secondly, it is shown that transitional determinacies explain the difference between 'overt' and 'covert' recognition recently observed in prosopagnosics, patients unable to recognize familiar faces. Prosopagnosics and normals are found to differ in their transitional determinacies, such that prosopagnosics require more binders (precisors) for covert recognition than normals. In general, it is concluded that transitional determinacies are as necessary to the theory of grammar as determinacies themselves.

  6. Demographic and dispositional characteristics as predictors of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Demographic and dispositional characteristics as predictors of organisational citizenship behaviour. ... as important predictors of OCB. The study identified some future directions for personality research in industrial, work, and organizational psychology and concludes with some caveats and directions for future research.

  7. Physical activity patterns in Greenland: A country in transition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl-Petersen, Inger; Jørgensen, Marit E; Bjerregaard, Peter

    2011-01-01

    To examine differences in physical activity patterns among Inuit in Greenland in relation to social transition. The Inuit in Greenland are an indigenous population in the circumpolar north who are experiencing rapid social transition.......To examine differences in physical activity patterns among Inuit in Greenland in relation to social transition. The Inuit in Greenland are an indigenous population in the circumpolar north who are experiencing rapid social transition....

  8. Exile and demographic population growth in Serbia

    OpenAIRE

    Stevanović Radoslav

    2005-01-01

    The data of the 2002 population census on refugee population are analyzed in this paper with a basic aim to determine the significance (contribution) of refugee corpus in demographic development of the Republic of Serbia. By analyzing the data, it has been determined that the refugee corpus does not significantly differ from the domicile population in the basic, above all demographic and other qualitative characteristics. The differences which can be noticed with certain (primarily socio-econ...

  9. Redundancy in Public Transit - Vol III. The Political Economy of Transit in the San Francisco Bay Area, 1945-63

    OpenAIRE

    Seymour Adler

    1980-01-01

    This report focuses on two concrete developments. One is the historical process that produced the Bay Area Rapid Transit District in 1957 and the district's particular regional rapid transit plan, approved by the voters of Alameda, Contra Costa, and San Francisco counties in November, 1962. The other is the process that produced the Alameda-Contra Costa Transit District in 1955 and 1956, and the particular transit service this District began operating in 1960. The relation between the two dis...

  10. Turn and Face the Strain: Age Demographic Change and the near Future of American Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladner, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    "Turn and Face the Strain: Age Demographic Change and the Near Future of American Education" outlines a fierce battle looming between the needs of public health care and education. A crisis is fast approaching that makes comprehensive improvement of America's public schools more important than ever. Faced with rapidly expanding…

  11. Performing Cultural Work in Demographically Changing Schools: Implications for Expanding Transformative Leadership Frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Camille Wilson

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: Marginalizing dynamics can emerge in school communities that are experiencing rapid demographic change, even when led by equity-oriented principals. The purpose of this article is to consider how educators can serve as transformative leaders through their performing cultural work that addresses inequity, crosses sociocultural boundaries,…

  12. [Political impact of demographic change in Germany. A summary view of the causes and consequences of demographic change in Germany and Europe].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birg, Herwig

    2009-01-01

    In Germany, the increase of life expectancy and the rapid decline of fertility started in the 19th century. The decline of the total fertility rate accelerated since the last decade of the 19th century when the social security system was established in the framework of the social reforms introduced by Bismarck. The process of population change is still going on. Its main demographic dimensions are demographic ageing, population decline, and the internationalisation of the population process by in-migration. The societal consequences are conflicts between the old and young generations as well as conflicts within each generation between the population groups with and without children. The economic impact of demographic change is a reduction of wealth, caused by a lower growth rate of the national product and by a reduction of the growth rate of the per capita income. Copyright 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  13. Age of onset or age at assessment-that is the question: Estimating newly incident alcohol drinking and rapid transition to heavy drinking in the United States, 2002-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Hui G; Lopez-Quintero, Catalina; Anthony, James C

    2017-10-15

    Age-specific incidence estimates are important and useful facts in psychiatric epidemiology, but incidence estimation can be challenging. Methods artifacts are possible. In the United States, where the minimum legal drinking age is 21 years, recent cross-sectional field research on 12- to 25-year-olds applied conventional "age-at-assessment" approaches (AAA) for incidence estimation based on 12-month recall. Estimates disclosed unexpected nonlinear patterns in age-specific incidence estimates for both drinking onset and for transitioning from first drink to heavy drinking. Here, our aim is to draw attention to an "age of onset" (AOO) alternative to AAA approaches and to verify whether the AOO approach also discloses nonlinearity. Yearly data are from U.S. nationally representative samples drawn and assessed for National Surveys on Drug Use and Health, 2002-2014, with standardized audio computer-assisted self-interview assessments for drinking outcomes. Both AAA and AOO approaches show nonlinearities, with an unexpected dip in drinking incidence rates after age 18 and before the age 21 minimum legal drinking age. The AOO and the AAA approaches disclosed similar age-specific patterns. We discuss advantages of the AOO approach when nonlinear incidence patterns can be anticipated, but we conclude that the AAA approach has not created an artifactual nonlinear pattern. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Burden of cancer mortality and differences attributable to demographic aging and risk factors in Argentina, 1986-2011

    OpenAIRE

    Pou, Sonia Alejandra; Tumas, Natalia; Coquet, Julia Becaria; Niclis, Camila; Román, María Dolores; Díaz, María del Pilar

    2017-01-01

    Abstract: The world faces an aging population that implies a large number of people affected with chronic diseases. Argentina has reached an advanced stage of demographic transition and presents a comparatively high rate of cancer mortality within Latin America. The objectives of this study were to examine cancer mortality trends in the province of Córdoba, Argentina, between 1986 and 2011, and to analyze the differences attributable to risk variations and demographic changes. Longitudinal se...

  15. Demographic aspects of social security in region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alla Gennad'evna Leont'eva

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a situational analysis of the level of life safety in the field of demographic regions of the Ural Federal District. The analysis is based on data from the Federal Statistics and covers the period 2000-2010. We have developed a system of indicators for evaluating safety in the demographic sphere. We set the main threats to the social and economic stability in the regions. The system of thresholds includes three blocks: the reproduction of the population, marriage and family relationships and health. We have presented a quantitative description of the main threats. Identified priority areas of social protection, providing increased stability of the regional socio-economic development, reducing the likelihood of social conflicts and improve the demographic situation.

  16. A unified framework of demographic time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riffe, Tim; Schöley, Jonas; Villavicencio, Francisco

    2017-01-01

    Demographic thought and practice is largely conditioned by the Lexis diagram, a two-dimensional graphical representation of the identity between age, period, and birth cohort. This relationship does not account for remaining years of life, total length of life, or time of death, whose use in demographic research is both underrepresented and incompletely situated. We describe an identity between these six demographic time measures and describe the sub-identities and diagrams that pertain to this identity. We provide an application of this framework to the measurement of late-life morbidity prevalence. We generalize these relationships to higher order identities derived from an arbitrary number of events in calendar time. Our examples are based on classic human demography, but the concepts we present can reveal patterns and relationships in any event history data, and contribute to the study of human or non-human population dynamics measured on any scale of calendar time.

  17. GENDER DEMOGRAPHIC DISPARITIES IN BACAU COUNTY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana Ancuta Stangaciu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Gender demographic disparities existing in Bacau County were determined by means of some demographic indicators such as: population, natural growth, live births, marriages, divorces, indicators which have been broken down by gender. The assessment of the disparities between men and women from the point of view of the demographic phenomena emphasize the fact that on the level of Bacau County there is a surplus of female population, as during the whole period subjected to the analysis, the positive and respectively the negative natural growth for the male population were lower and higher respectively than the one registered in the case of the female population. The birth rate, marriage rate and divorce rate phenomena also changed significantly after 1990 ; thus, the average age of marriage increased, and the gender difference also had a certain growth, which caused a shift in the fertility intensity from the age group 20-24 to the very next one - the 25-29 age group.

  18. [The demographic policy on the regional level].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sultanaeva, Z M

    2010-01-01

    The study and assessment of demographic processes in the Republic of Bashkortostan during 1984-2008 was implemented. During the examined period, the decrease of marriage rate, the increase of divorce rate and mortality rate accompanied with the decrease of birth rate. From 2001, the positive trend is noted, especially in the area of marriage rate increase. However, the instability of the divorce rate index continues to persist. The important demographic target is to proceed with the reduction of reproductive losses, primarily at the expense of the decrease of the postneonatal losses and mortinatality.

  19. Inferring the demographic history of African farmers and pygmy hunter-gatherers using a multilocus resequencing data set.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Etienne Patin

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The transition from hunting and gathering to farming involved a major cultural innovation that has spread rapidly over most of the globe in the last ten millennia. In sub-Saharan Africa, hunter-gatherers have begun to shift toward an agriculture-based lifestyle over the last 5,000 years. Only a few populations still base their mode of subsistence on hunting and gathering. The Pygmies are considered to be the largest group of mobile hunter-gatherers of Africa. They dwell in equatorial rainforests and are characterized by their short mean stature. However, little is known about the chronology of the demographic events-size changes, population splits, and gene flow--ultimately giving rise to contemporary Pygmy (Western and Eastern groups and neighboring agricultural populations. We studied the branching history of Pygmy hunter-gatherers and agricultural populations from Africa and estimated separation times and gene flow between these populations. We resequenced 24 independent noncoding regions across the genome, corresponding to a total of approximately 33 kb per individual, in 236 samples from seven Pygmy and five agricultural populations dispersed over the African continent. We used simulation-based inference to identify the historical model best fitting our data. The model identified included the early divergence of the ancestors of Pygmy hunter-gatherers and farming populations approximately 60,000 years ago, followed by a split of the Pygmies' ancestors into the Western and Eastern Pygmy groups approximately 20,000 years ago. Our findings increase knowledge of the history of the peopling of the African continent in a region lacking archaeological data. An appreciation of the demographic and adaptive history of African populations with different modes of subsistence should improve our understanding of the influence of human lifestyles on genome diversity.

  20. Inferring the demographic history of African farmers and pygmy hunter-gatherers using a multilocus resequencing data set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patin, Etienne; Laval, Guillaume; Barreiro, Luis B; Salas, Antonio; Semino, Ornella; Santachiara-Benerecetti, Silvana; Kidd, Kenneth K; Kidd, Judith R; Van der Veen, Lolke; Hombert, Jean-Marie; Gessain, Antoine; Froment, Alain; Bahuchet, Serge; Heyer, Evelyne; Quintana-Murci, Lluís

    2009-04-01

    The transition from hunting and gathering to farming involved a major cultural innovation that has spread rapidly over most of the globe in the last ten millennia. In sub-Saharan Africa, hunter-gatherers have begun to shift toward an agriculture-based lifestyle over the last 5,000 years. Only a few populations still base their mode of subsistence on hunting and gathering. The Pygmies are considered to be the largest group of mobile hunter-gatherers of Africa. They dwell in equatorial rainforests and are characterized by their short mean stature. However, little is known about the chronology of the demographic events-size changes, population splits, and gene flow--ultimately giving rise to contemporary Pygmy (Western and Eastern) groups and neighboring agricultural populations. We studied the branching history of Pygmy hunter-gatherers and agricultural populations from Africa and estimated separation times and gene flow between these populations. We resequenced 24 independent noncoding regions across the genome, corresponding to a total of approximately 33 kb per individual, in 236 samples from seven Pygmy and five agricultural populations dispersed over the African continent. We used simulation-based inference to identify the historical model best fitting our data. The model identified included the early divergence of the ancestors of Pygmy hunter-gatherers and farming populations approximately 60,000 years ago, followed by a split of the Pygmies' ancestors into the Western and Eastern Pygmy groups approximately 20,000 years ago. Our findings increase knowledge of the history of the peopling of the African continent in a region lacking archaeological data. An appreciation of the demographic and adaptive history of African populations with different modes of subsistence should improve our understanding of the influence of human lifestyles on genome diversity.

  1. Inferring the Demographic History of African Farmers and Pygmy Hunter–Gatherers Using a Multilocus Resequencing Data Set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patin, Etienne; Laval, Guillaume; Barreiro, Luis B.; Salas, Antonio; Semino, Ornella; Santachiara-Benerecetti, Silvana; Kidd, Kenneth K.; Kidd, Judith R.; Van der Veen, Lolke; Hombert, Jean-Marie; Gessain, Antoine; Froment, Alain; Bahuchet, Serge; Heyer, Evelyne; Quintana-Murci, Lluís

    2009-01-01

    The transition from hunting and gathering to farming involved a major cultural innovation that has spread rapidly over most of the globe in the last ten millennia. In sub-Saharan Africa, hunter–gatherers have begun to shift toward an agriculture-based lifestyle over the last 5,000 years. Only a few populations still base their mode of subsistence on hunting and gathering. The Pygmies are considered to be the largest group of mobile hunter–gatherers of Africa. They dwell in equatorial rainforests and are characterized by their short mean stature. However, little is known about the chronology of the demographic events—size changes, population splits, and gene flow—ultimately giving rise to contemporary Pygmy (Western and Eastern) groups and neighboring agricultural populations. We studied the branching history of Pygmy hunter–gatherers and agricultural populations from Africa and estimated separation times and gene flow between these populations. We resequenced 24 independent noncoding regions across the genome, corresponding to a total of ∼33 kb per individual, in 236 samples from seven Pygmy and five agricultural populations dispersed over the African continent. We used simulation-based inference to identify the historical model best fitting our data. The model identified included the early divergence of the ancestors of Pygmy hunter–gatherers and farming populations ∼60,000 years ago, followed by a split of the Pygmies' ancestors into the Western and Eastern Pygmy groups ∼20,000 years ago. Our findings increase knowledge of the history of the peopling of the African continent in a region lacking archaeological data. An appreciation of the demographic and adaptive history of African populations with different modes of subsistence should improve our understanding of the influence of human lifestyles on genome diversity. PMID:19360089

  2. Demographic Development of the Island of Brač and the Islanders’ Tendency to Emigrate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Nakićen

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the basic demographic indicators of the Island of Brač and its settlements. Particular focus is on emigration from the island and its effect on demographic development of the island. The paper also presents the results of the survey conducted on the island in 2014. The aim of the survey was to investigate the level of satisfaction related to life on the island, and the respondents’ attitude toward emigration. Since the survey encompassed 151 permanent residents of the Island of Brač, the sample cannot be regarded as representative, so the survey results were not analysed separately, but rather incorporated in the demographic analysis. Throughout most of the 20th century, the Croatian insular area was characterised by intensive depopulation. Peak population on the islands was recorded in 1921, and it was followed by a long period of population decline, which lasted until 1991. However, the peak population on the Island of Brač was recorded in 1900, and it was also followed by a long period of depopulation, which ended in 1981. Official census data indicate that from 1981 until the present day Brač has recorded population increase, but that increase is actually fictitious (it was actually caused by “administrative immigration” – people increasingly registered their residence on the island in order to gain certain benefits regardless of their actual place of living or residence. Analysis of the population trends on the Island of Brač shows that in the period from 1857 to 1900, all the settlements on the island had population increase due to very favourable economic situation on the island brought by the vine-growing expansion. Economic prosperity of the island and high birth rates in the first phase of demographic transition resulted in rapid population growth. However, after the Wine Clause had been signed in 1891, and particularly after 1910, when phylloxera devastated the local vineyards, the insular economy

  3. Do we need demographic data to forecast plant population dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Adler, Peter B.

    2017-01-01

    Rapid environmental change has generated growing interest in forecasts of future population trajectories. Traditional population models built with detailed demographic observations from one study site can address the impacts of environmental change at particular locations, but are difficult to scale up to the landscape and regional scales relevant to management decisions. An alternative is to build models using population-level data that are much easier to collect over broad spatial scales than individual-level data. However, it is unknown whether models built using population-level data adequately capture the effects of density-dependence and environmental forcing that are necessary to generate skillful forecasts.Here, we test the consequences of aggregating individual responses when forecasting the population states (percent cover) and trajectories of four perennial grass species in a semi-arid grassland in Montana, USA. We parameterized two population models for each species, one based on individual-level data (survival, growth and recruitment) and one on population-level data (percent cover), and compared their forecasting accuracy and forecast horizons with and without the inclusion of climate covariates. For both models, we used Bayesian ridge regression to weight the influence of climate covariates for optimal prediction.In the absence of climate effects, we found no significant difference between the forecast accuracy of models based on individual-level data and models based on population-level data. Climate effects were weak, but increased forecast accuracy for two species. Increases in accuracy with climate covariates were similar between model types.In our case study, percent cover models generated forecasts as accurate as those from a demographic model. For the goal of forecasting, models based on aggregated individual-level data may offer a practical alternative to data-intensive demographic models. Long time series of percent cover data already exist

  4. Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner? – Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China

    OpenAIRE

    Hans Fehr; Sabine Jokisch; Laurence J. Kotlikoff

    2005-01-01

    This paper develops a dynamic, life-cycle, general equilibrium model to study the interdependent demographic, fiscal, and economic transition paths of China, Japan, the U.S.,and the EU. Each of these countries/regions is entering a period of rapid and significant aging that will require major fiscal adjustments. But the aging of these societies may be a cloud with a silver lining coming, in this case, in the form of capital deepening that will raise real wages. In a previous model that exclud...

  5. Farmers demographic characteristics, awareness and perception of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study concludes that livestock technologies would be more result-oriented if adequate consideration is given to the demographic characteristics and perception of farmers among others which will in turn help the farmer in making decision to adopt. Keywords: Demography, livestock, technology, awareness, relevance ...

  6. Exploring the relationship between demographic factors ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Exploring the relationship between demographic factors, performance and fortitude in a group of diverse 1st-year medical students. ... To explore, within the paradigm of positive psychology, the relationship between the self, family and support constructs of fortitude, and academic performance of 1st-year medical students.

  7. The demographic dynamics of small island societies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz, M; D'ayala, P G; Marcus, E; Mcelroy, J L; Rossi, O

    1987-01-01

    Small islands and microstates have demonstrated a unique demographic pattern, including cycles of swift population increases or decreases well beyond natural birth and death rate balances. These demographic fluctuations have been produced largely by rises or declines in market opportunities. The process of taking advantage of favorable opportunities is always followed by a specialization in the given activity, without regard to environmental protection issues or a longterm strategy for economic development and resource diversification. The population growth phase is associated with increasing fragility of the economic base, whether because of the external dangers of overspecialization or induced internal dysfunctions such as disease and resource depletion. Eventually complete collapse results, causing chronic outmigration or even depopulation. Case histories of maritime basins in the Mediterranean, Caribbean, and Pacific show that the demographic structure of small islands has been particularly sensitive to changing economic opportunities, the vagaries of market forces, and cataclysmic natural events. Experience in these areas suggests that balanced economic development of small islands should be based on diversification of activities, thus ensuring a relatively stable pattern of growth, sound environmental management, and control of dangerous demographic fluctuations. Special attention should be given to the development of broad-based research and cooperation to integrate specific island opportunities within a regional network.

  8. The Diagnosis of Dementia: Demographic Characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coyne, Andrew C.; And Others

    1990-01-01

    Examined demographic characteristics of 242 clinic outpatients evaluated for dementia. Each individual received comprehensive assessment of medical status, psychological functioning, and social abilities. Results add to knowledge of characteristics of individuals with Alzheimer's disease, multi-infarct dementia, or other related disorders.…

  9. A Visual Summary of Hispanic Demographics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, Emily G.

    Eighteen graphic charts containing demographic data on Hispanic Americans are provided in this report. The headings of each table are as follows: (1) Hispanic Subgroups-1985; (2) Hispanic Residence by State, 1980; (3) Median Age-1985; (4) Unemployment Rates-1985; (5) Hispanic Unemployment-1985; (6) Median Family Income-1984; (7) Median Weekly…

  10. Disordered eating attitudes: demographic and clinico ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Conclusion: Our study observed disordered eating attitude to be prevalent among young adults, and demographic along with clinico-anthropometric factors constituted associated factors. Our findings strengthen the basis to incorporate health awareness programs aimed at improving nutrition and eating behavior among the ...

  11. Population demographics of Palaemon peringueyi (Macpherson ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The population demographics of the caridean shrimp Palaemon peringueyi was investigated monthly at four sites over a period of one year in the small, intermittently-open Grants River Estuary situated on the south-east coastline of southern Africa. Mean total abundance and biomass of P. peringueyi ranged between 0 and ...

  12. Demographic, ergonomic and psychosocial factors affecting work ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Work related musculoskeletal disorders have been associated with demographic factors, work stresses and psycho-social stress symptoms. The study aimed to evaluate factors associated with MSDs in different body regions among Indian tobacco processing workers. A group of 450 tobacco processing workers participated ...

  13. Understanding China's Demographic Dividends and Labor Issue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xizhe

    2013-01-01

    One of the major concerns about the one-child policy is its negative impact on the current and future labor force in China. People have talked about the Lewis Turning Point and the end of demographic dividends. Some of these arguments, however, can be misleading. The working-age population (ages 15 to 59) can be treated as the potential labor…

  14. Global Demographic Change and Climate Policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerlagh, Reyer; Jaimes Bonilla, Richard; Motavasseli, Ali

    2017-01-01

    Between 1950 and 2017, world average life expectancy increased from below-50 to above-70, while the fertility rate dropped from 5 to about 2.5. We develop and calibrate an analytic climate-economy model with overlapping generations to study the effect of such demographic change on capital markets

  15. Demographic and Lifestyle Variables Associated with Obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worthy, Sheri L.; Lokken, Kristine; Pilcher, Kenneth; Boeka, Abbe

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Overweight and obesity rates are associated with chronic diseases and higher rates of disability and continue to rise in the United States and worldwide. The purpose of this study was to build on past research and further investigate demographic and lifestyle variables associated with increased body mass index (BMI: kg/m[squared]).…

  16. Demographic Characteristics Related To Wholesale Marketing Of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    To determine the influence of the demographic attributes of wholesales yam marketers on their marketing cost, data were collected from 80 respondents randomly selected from 10 yam markets in two Local Government Areas of Delta State. Results of data analysis reveals that wholesale yam marketing in the study area ...

  17. The Macroeconomic Dynamics of Demographic Shocks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijdra, B.J.; Ligthart, J.E.

    2004-01-01

    The paper employs an extended Yaari-Blanchard model of overlapping generations to study how the macroeconomy is affected over time by various demographic changes.It is shown that a proportional decline in fertility and death rates has qualitatively similar effects to capital income subsidies; both

  18. Demographic Group Differences in Adolescents' Time Attitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andretta, James R.; Worrell, Frank C.; Mello, Zena R.; Dixson, Dante D.; Baik, Sharon H.

    2013-01-01

    In the present study, we examined demographic differences in time attitudes in a sample of 293 adolescents. Time attitudes were measured using the Adolescent Time Attitude Scale (Mello & Worrell, 2007; Worrell, Mello, & Buhl, 2011), which assesses positive and negative attitudes toward the past, the present, and the future. Generally, African…

  19. Demographic characteristics, leadership styles, job attitudes and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This purpose of this study was to investigate the predictive influence of demographic characteristics, leadership styles, job attitudes and personality on job performance among civil servants in Southwest Nigeria. The sample consists of 400 civil servants (males = 275, females = 125) randomly selected from Southwestern ...

  20. Life Potential as a Basic Demographic Indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goerlich, Francisco J.; Soler, Angel

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes an indicator that integrates life expectancy with the demographic structure of the population for a given society. By doing this, we have a simple indicator of mortality and aging combined, which could be very useful for developed societies. As is widely known, life expectancy at birth is independent of the demographic…

  1. Hyperopia: Prevalence, Demographic Associations, Pattern and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In order to determine the prevalence, demographic associations, pattern and physiologic determinants of hyperopia in the adult population of Imo State, Nigeria. Cross-sectional analytical study was undertaken, results showed that hyperopia was the commonest refractive error (35.2%) in which 60% of females in the study ...

  2. A unified framework of demographic time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riffe, Tim; Schöley, Jonas; Villavicencio, Francisco

    research is both underrepresented and incompletely situated. We describe a three-dimensional relationship between six different measures of demographic time: chronological age, time to death, lifespan, time of birth, time of death, and period. We describe four identities among subsets of these six measures...

  3. New Granadan native populations: recent demographic research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villamarin, J A

    1982-01-01

    A survey of recent work on the demographic history of the colonial native populations in the area that is now Colombia is presented, with emphasis on the study of the Chibcha Indians. Information is included on published data, sources, issues, and future research questions.

  4. Demographic drivers of functional composition dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muscarella, Robert; Lohbeck, Madelon; Martínez-Ramos, Miguel; Poorter, Lourens; Rodríguez-Velázquez, Jorge Enrique; Breugel, van Michiel; Bongers, Frans

    2017-01-01

    Mechanisms of community assembly and ecosystem function are often analyzed using community-weighted mean trait values (CWMs). We present a novel conceptual framework to quantify the contribution of demographic processes (i.e., growth, recruitment, and mortality) to temporal changes in CWMs. We

  5. Global demographic change and climate policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerlagh, Reyer; Jaimes, Richard; Motavasseli, Ali

    2017-01-01

    Between 1950 and 2017, world average life expectancy increased from below-50 to above-70, while the fertility rate dropped from 5 to about 2.5. We develop and calibrate an analytic climate-economy model with overlapping generations to study the effect of such demographic change on capital markets

  6. demographic factors associated factors associated with malaria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    userpc

    associated with malaria prevalence. Keywords: Malaria, Demographic, Plasmodiu. INTRODUCTION. Malaria is a parasitic disease,. Nigeria and many tropical and subtropic regions of the globe. It is caused by th protozoan parasite Plasmodium. Human malar is caused by four different species o. Plasmodium: P. falciparum ...

  7. Demographic and epidemiological characteristics of HIV ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: In view of the maturing HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa, better understanding of its epidemiology among older adults is necessary in order to design appropriate care and treatment programmes for them. Objectives: To describe the demographic and epidemiological characteristics of HIV opportunistic ...

  8. Demographic change in the northern forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneth M. Johnson; Susan I. Stewart; Miranda H. Mockrin

    2012-01-01

    The Northern Forest spans more than 26 million acres across Maine, New Hampshire, New York, and Vermont. With densely settled urban cores, sprawling suburbs, struggling industrial and forest products towns, fast growing recreational areas, and isolated rural villages, the region includes many of the diverse strands that together compose the demographic fabric of the...

  9. Presidential Transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-06-09

    done to facilitate the transition.52 CRS-12 53 David T. Stanley, Changing Administrations (Washington: Brookings Institution, 1965), p. 6. 54 “Pre...Conference of Mayors; Sharleen Hirsch, an educational administrator; and Jule Sugarman , a public administrator. Staff members were assigned to task forces...Issues,” Washington Post, Nov. 13, 1980, p. Al. 77 David Hoffman, “Bush Names Baker Secretary of State,” Washington Post, Nov. 10, 1988, pp. Al and

  10. An Analysis of Technology Transition Within the Department of Defense

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    for Savings Program TPM Technical Performance Measure TRA Technology Readiness Assessment TRL Technology Readiness Level TTI Technology...Rapid Technology Transition Program (RTT) Navy Has a charter to rapidly transition technology from any source, including those not traditionally...Metrics such as MOEs, Technical Performance Measures ( TPMs ), and Design-dependent Parameters (DDPs) should be established and monitored to ensure

  11. The nutrition and health transition in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosulwat, Vongsvat

    2002-02-01

    To explore and describe the nutrition and health transition in Thailand in relation to social and economic changes, shifts in food consumption patterns and nutritional problems, as well as morbidity and mortality trends. This report reviews the nutrition and health situation and other related issues by compiling information from various reports and publications from several sources. Yearly statistics and reports from the National Statistical Office were used as well as data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and national surveys on the nutrition and health situation of the Thai population. Thailand has undergone social and economic transitions during the past three decades and is approaching the post-demographic transitional period. These are evidenced by an increase in life expectancy at birth of the population, and declines in the total fertility and infant mortality rates. The economic structure has also moved from agricultural to industrial. Industrial growth has surpassed that of the agricultural sector as indicated by a steady rise in the share of the industrial sector in the gross domestic product, which is greater than that of other sectors. At the same time, results from several nation-wide surveys indicate that the food consumption pattern of the population has changed considerably; Thai staples and side dishes are being replaced by diets containing a higher proportion of fats and animal meat. A shift in the proportion of expenditure on food prepared at home and that expended on purchased, ready-to-eat food, in both rural and urban settings, gives another reflection of the change in food consumption of the Thai population. The prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents has increased dramatically during the past 20 years and is more pronounced in children from private schools and urban communities than in those from public schools or rural areas. Among adults, results from two national surveys in 1991 and 1996

  12. The Demographic Situation in Ukraine. Certain Aspects and Directions for its Solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhukov Andrii V.

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The article is concerned with analyzing the trends of the demographic changes that have occurred in Ukraine over the past 14 years. The most important aspects of the demographic changes in the modern world have been expounded. The conception of demographic transitions has been clarified from the perspective of change in the natural reproduction of population. The distinction between migration and natural changes of population in the country has been explained. The main problems related to the significant downsizing of the Ukrainian population over the past three years have been provided and described. Influence of the main economic factors on the indicators of population change has been considered, a dependence between these factors has been determined. The topical directions, allowing to regulate the dynamics of population size, have been identified and described.

  13. Perceived Stress and Use of Coping Strategies as a Response to Rapidly Changing Student Demographics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindner, Reinhard W.; Healy, Donald E., Jr.

    2004-01-01

    The authors present findings from an initial information gathering and analysis of a larger Office of Special Education Programs model demonstration project, "Connections to Success." The article is based on an analysis of a teacher survey conducted at four schools in the project's partner district focused on perceived problems, sources of stress,…

  14. Is the demographic dividend an education dividend?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús; Lutz, Wolfgang; Sanderson, Warren

    2014-02-01

    The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demography and population economics literature. The beneficial effect of changes in age structure after a decrease in fertility has become known as the "demographic dividend." In this article, we reassess the empirical evidence on the associations among economic growth, changes in age structure, labor force participation, and educational attainment. Using a global panel of countries, we find that after the effect of human capital dynamics is controlled for, no evidence exists that changes in age structure affect labor productivity. Our results imply that improvements in educational attainment are the key to explaining productivity and income growth and that a substantial portion of the demographic dividend is an education dividend.

  15. Demographic variables in coal miners’ safety attitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Wen-wen; Wu, Xiang; Ci, Hui-Peng; Qin, Shu-Qi; Liu, Jia-Long

    2017-03-01

    To change unsafe behavior through adjusting people’s safety attitudes has become an important measure to prevent accidents. Demographic variables, as influential factors of safety attitude, are fundamental and essential for the research. This research does a questionnaire survey among coal mine industry workers, and makes variance analysis and correlation analysis of the results in light of age, length of working years, educational level and experiences of accidents. The results show that the coal miners’ age, length of working years and accident experiences correlate lowly with safety attitudes, and those older coal miners with longer working years have better safety attitude, as coal miners without experiences of accident do.However, educational level has nothing to do with the safety attitude. Therefore, during the process of safety management, coal miners with different demographic characteristics should be put more attention to.

  16. Using Twitter data for demographic research

    OpenAIRE

    Dilek Yildiz; Jo Munson; Agnese Vitali; Ramine Tinati; Jennifer A. Holland

    2017-01-01

    Background: Social media data is a promising source of social science data. However, deriving the demographic characteristics of users and dealing with the nonrandom, nonrepresentative populations from which they are drawn represent challenges for social scientists. Objective: Given the growing use of social media data in social science research, this paper asks two questions: 1) To what extent are findings obtained with social media data generalizable to broader populations, and 2) what i...

  17. Acute pancreatitis: Demographics, aetiological factors and outcomes ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    an elevated urine amylase level supported the diagnosis. Acute pancreatitis: Demographics, aetiological factors and outcomes in a regional hospital in South Africa. F. Anderson, M. Med., F.C.s. (s.A.). s. r. ThoMson, Ch.M., F.r.C.s. d. L. CLArke, M.Med.sCI., F.C.s. (s.A.) e. LooTs, F.C.s. (s.A.) department of surgery, Addington ...

  18. Using Twitter data for demographic research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dilek Yildiz

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Social media data is a promising source of social science data. However, deriving the demographic characteristics of users and dealing with the nonrandom, nonrepresentative populations from which they are drawn represent challenges for social scientists. Objective: Given the growing use of social media data in social science research, this paper asks two questions: 1 To what extent are findings obtained with social media data generalizable to broader populations, and 2 what is the best practice for estimating demographic information from Twitter data? Methods: Our analyses use information gathered from 979,992 geo-located Tweets sent by 22,356 unique users in South East England between 23 June and 4 July 2014. We estimate demographic characteristics of the Twitter users with the crowd-sourcing platform CrowdFlower and the image-recognition software Face++. To evaluate bias in the data, we run a series of log-linear models with offsets and calibrate the nonrepresentative sample of Twitter users with mid-year population estimates for South East England. Results: CrowdFlower proves to be more accurate than Face++ for the measurement of age, whereas both tools are highly reliable for measuring the sex of Twitter users. The calibration exercise allows bias correction in the age-, sex-, and location-specific population counts obtained from the Twitter population by augmenting Twitter data with mid-year population estimates. Contribution: The paper proposes best practices for estimating Twitter users' basic demographic characteristics and a calibration method to address the selection bias in the Twitter population, allowing researchers to generalize findings based on Twitter to the general population.

  19. Demographic and management factors associated with biosecurity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Demographic and management factors associated with biosecurity measure compliance on pig farms in south west Nigeria. ... In the multivariable logistic regression, only the age of farmer/ manager (OR = 2.8; 95% CI 1.3 – 6.2), farm size (OR = 2.4; 95% CI 1.1 – 5.2) and pig mortality rate in past 1 year (OR = 2.2; 95% CI 1.1 ...

  20. Demographic Fluctuation and Institutional Response in Sparta

    OpenAIRE

    DORAN, TIMOTHY DONALD

    2011-01-01

    AbstractDemographic Fluctuation and Institutional Response in SpartabyTimothy Donald DoranDoctor of Philosophy in Ancient History and Mediterranean ArchaeologyUniversity of California, BerkeleyProfessor Emily Mackil, ChairThe Spartiate population declined from 8000 in the early fifth century to less than 1000 in the mid-fourth, and caused Sparta's political fortunes to drop dramatically from being the unofficial hegemon of the Greek-speaking peoples to a strictly local power in the Hellenisti...

  1. Demographic changes in towns in Slovenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksander Jakoš

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with population growth and changes in towns in Slovenia, whose characteristics are small towns. The latest population indicators show a decline in growth, which doesn’t necessarily represent stagnation but development in a new direction. In view of the present demographic trends, growth of larger towns in Slovenia will have to be qualitative and under no circumstances an account of smaller towns.

  2. Transit space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raahauge, Kirsten Marie

    2008-01-01

    This article deals with representations of one specific city, Århus, Denmark, especially its central district. The analysis is based on anthropological fieldwork conducted in Skåde Bakker and Fedet, two well-off neighborhoods. The overall purpose of the project is to study perceptions of space...... and the interaction of cultural, social, and spatial organizations, as seen from the point of view of people living in Skåde Bakker and Fedet. The focus is on the city dwellers’ representations of the central district of Århus with specific reference to the concept of transit space. When applied to various Århusian...

  3. Rural Household Demographics, Livelihoods and the Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Sherbinin, Alex; Vanwey, Leah; McSweeney, Kendra; Aggarwal, Rimjhim; Barbieri, Alisson; Henry, Sabina; Hunter, Lori M; Twine, Wayne

    2008-02-01

    This paper reviews and synthesizes findings from scholarly work on linkages among rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Using the livelihood approach as an organizing framework, we examine evidence on the multiple pathways linking environmental variables and the following demographic variables: fertility, migration, morbidity and mortality, and lifecycles. Although the review draws on studies from the entire developing world, we find the majority of micro-level studies have been conducted in either marginal (mountainous or arid) or frontier environments, especially Amazonia. Though the linkages are mediated by many complex and often context-specific factors, there is strong evidence that dependence on natural resources intensifies when households lose human and social capital through adult morbidity and mortality, and qualified evidence for the influence of environmental factors on household decision-making regarding fertility and migration. Two decades of research on lifecycles and land-cover change at the farm level have yielded a number of insights about how households make use of different land-use and natural resource management strategies at different stages. A thread running throughout the review is the importance of managing risk through livelihood diversification, ensuring future income security, and culture-specific norms regarding appropriate and desirable activities and demographic responses. Recommendations for future research are provided.

  4. Exile and demographic population growth in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stevanović Radoslav

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The data of the 2002 population census on refugee population are analyzed in this paper with a basic aim to determine the significance (contribution of refugee corpus in demographic development of the Republic of Serbia. By analyzing the data, it has been determined that the refugee corpus does not significantly differ from the domicile population in the basic, above all demographic and other qualitative characteristics. The differences which can be noticed with certain (primarily socio-economic characteristics, due to the proportionally small participation of refugee persons in relation to the total (domicile population, could not significantly influence the total demographic, socio-economic and other characteristics of the population of central Serbia and Vojvodina. The most significant contribution of refugee (classifying the refugee corpus in the country's total population is reflected in the mitigation of the depopulation trend, namely population growth, not only both micro-entities, but also lower administrative-territorial entities (districts depending on the enumerated refugee population in them. However, population projections indicate that by the middle of this century (2050 the positive effects of the basically larger number of inhabitants will be lost caused by the inflow of refugee population.

  5. Development of reprogenetics and its demographic aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devedžić Mirjana M.

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of reprogenetics during the last two decades of the XX century has brought a new age of reproduction. The paper surveys different types of reprogenetics in a wider sense, i.e. different assisted reproductive technologies (ART that include manipulation of female reproductive cell out of a woman's womb. Development of reprogenetics is documented by available quantitative indicators of the number and success of ART procedures in developed countries at the beginning of the XXI century. Since 1978, when the first baby was born from in vitro fertilization, the number of children born that way has reached 1% of all children, and in some countries even over 3%. Moreover, existing documentation is incomplete and does not include all forms of assisted reproduction - in reality, the importance of assisted reproduction is even higher and becomes demographically significant. Hence the paper indicates existing and potential effects of the ART development on the demographic development i.e. on specific demographic aspects of this phenomenon. It also points out the effects on the level of fertility, on the changes of direct fertility determinants, and on the levels of mortality and infant mortality, as well as a new understanding of birth control, the possibility of affecting biological structures, and the changes of the fundaments of marriage and family. Development perspectives of reprogenetics are also being raised in the context of bioethical discussions and indicate ethical dilemmas related to assisted reproduction. Solutions to the dilemmas define the scope of applying new reproductive technologies in the future.

  6. Rural Household Demographics, Livelihoods and the Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Sherbinin, Alex; VanWey, Leah; McSweeney, Kendra; Aggarwal, Rimjhim; Barbieri, Alisson; Henry, Sabina; Hunter, Lori M.; Twine, Wayne

    2008-01-01

    This paper reviews and synthesizes findings from scholarly work on linkages among rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Using the livelihood approach as an organizing framework, we examine evidence on the multiple pathways linking environmental variables and the following demographic variables: fertility, migration, morbidity and mortality, and lifecycles. Although the review draws on studies from the entire developing world, we find the majority of micro-level studies have been conducted in either marginal (mountainous or arid) or frontier environments, especially Amazonia. Though the linkages are mediated by many complex and often context-specific factors, there is strong evidence that dependence on natural resources intensifies when households lose human and social capital through adult morbidity and mortality, and qualified evidence for the influence of environmental factors on household decision-making regarding fertility and migration. Two decades of research on lifecycles and land-cover change at the farm level have yielded a number of insights about how households make use of different land-use and natural resource management strategies at different stages. A thread running throughout the review is the importance of managing risk through livelihood diversification, ensuring future income security, and culture-specific norms regarding appropriate and desirable activities and demographic responses. Recommendations for future research are provided. PMID:19190718

  7. Demographic change and carbon dioxide emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Liddle, Brant; Jiang, Leiwen; Smith, Kirk R; Pachauri, Shonali; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina

    2012-07-14

    Relations between demographic change and emissions of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO(2)) have been studied from different perspectives, but most projections of future emissions only partly take demographic influences into account. We review two types of evidence for how CO(2) emissions from the use of fossil fuels are affected by demographic factors such as population growth or decline, ageing, urbanisation, and changes in household size. First, empirical analyses of historical trends tend to show that CO(2) emissions from energy use respond almost proportionately to changes in population size and that ageing and urbanisation have less than proportional but statistically significant effects. Second, scenario analyses show that alternative population growth paths could have substantial effects on global emissions of CO(2) several decades from now, and that ageing and urbanisation can have important effects in particular world regions. These results imply that policies that slow population growth would probably also have climate-related benefits. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. [The keys to the western demographic "miracle"].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burguiere, A

    1991-09-01

    Unlike most historical disciplines which had access to copious sources of data before refining their analytical methods, historical demography has almost simultaneously acquired data and developed rigorous analytical methods. French parish records did not attract detailed scrutiny until after World War II, but family reconstitution and other methods of exploitation were soon perfected. The continuing paradox of historical demography is that its statistical methods are rigorous but data remain sparse. Several dozen villages and a few cities have emerged from a vast obscurity but entire regions remain unexplored. Nonetheless, the study of preindustrial populations has progressed more in the past 20 years than has study of populations in the industrial era. Complex phenomena such as the fertility decline and incipient control of birth rates in late 18th century Europe have been studied or explained more adequately than has the inverse phenomenon, the baby boom of the 1940s. A major impetus to historical demography in Europe was the desire of demographers at the National Institute of Demographic Studies to understand Europe's fertility decline through knowledge of the mechanisms that initially caused it to occur. The diversity of apparent demographic models that have resulted from the works of historical demographers has caused various regional models to be proposed for France in the 17th and 18th centuries. It is clear from statistical analysis of available data that by the 18th century, fertility control was practiced by the mass of the French population, but the interpretation of this fact is problematic. The change in fertility behavior must reflect a deeper change in mentalities. The diffusion of contraception in the 18th century did not represent a transgression of the teachings of the Catholic Church as much as a change in attitudes toward life in which the future security of children was increasingly sought in education and improved living standards, and in

  9. Demographic Transformations of the Russian Regional Space

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Viktorovna Kurushina

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers the transformations of the quantitative components of human capital, which is the main driver of economic growth in the material, institutional and mental space. According to the author’s concept of stratified space, the processes of self-reproduction and self-renewal of a system are carried out in the material space. This can be determined by the indicators of fertility, mortality and migration in the demographic subsystem. The process of self-regulation of a system on the basis of legislative acts and behavior patterns is carried out in the institutional space. Institutional transformations are also manifested in the implementation of federal target programs for socio-economic development, affecting the state of the demographic subsystem. The processes of self-reflection, self-determination and self-development are carried out in the mental space. Mental transformations in the demographic subsystem are manifested in the change of value orientations. In accordance with the system of values that are conceptualized in modern development strategies the authors define the following models of Man: Economic Man, Socio-Economic Man (who lives in agglomeration centers and at the periphery, Socio-Natural Man (Environmental Man and Householder Man and Innovative Man. Demographic shifts are investigated in 83 Russian regions on the determinants of birth rate and mortality. The analyzed period of transformation covers 2005 and 2012. Methods of matrix analysis are used to visualize the process of demographic shifts. The assessment of transformation of the stratified regional space spheres is given on the basis of the multifactor models of the population natural growth rate. The paper reveals the reduction in the level and variation of mortality rate, the increasing importance and differentiation of regions according to fertility rate, and the effectiveness of introducing the institution of maternity capital from a perspective of the

  10. Population pressure and fertility in pre-transition Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanLandingham, M; Hirschman, C

    2001-11-01

    Before the demographic transition in Thailand, fertility was high, but not uniformly so. As in other pre-transition settings, Thai fertility responded to pressures and opportunities created by socioeconomic structure and land availability. Drawing upon provincial data from the 1947 and 1960 censuses of Thailand, we find a strong 'frontier effect' on Thai fertility in the 1950s. Fertility was higher in sparsely settled frontier provinces and lower in provinces with higher population density relative to cultivatable land. This finding is robust and holds up with controls for agricultural employment, land quality, and the sex ratio (an indicator of sex-selective migration). The effect of population pressure lowers the likelihood of marriage and of marital fertility. The findings from Thailand are consistent with the research of Easterlin on the nineteenth century United States and with other pre-transition societies. We suggest how demographic transition theory might be broadened to include fertility dynamics in pre-transition societies.

  11. Nutrition transition in Chile: determinants and consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albala, Cecilia; Vio, Fernando; Kain, Juliana; Uauy, Ricardo

    2002-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to analyse the determinants and consequences of the nutrition transition in Chile and describe the related health promotion policies. This is a descriptive, population-based study including data on demographic, diet, nutrition and biomedical related variables. Data came from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the National Institute of Statistics (INE), the Ministries of Planning, Health and Education surveillance systems, and national surveys. As malnutrition decreased during the 1980s, obesity increased rapidly in all age groups. In adults, currently about 25% of women are obese (body mass index >30 kg m(-2)); particularly those from low socio-economic levels. Among preschoolers, obesity is now 10% while in 6-year-old children it is 17.5% (weight/height greater than two standard deviations (>2SD) of the World Health Organization reference). Nutritional risk factors are prevalent, diet is changing to a 'Western diet' with an increasing fat consumption, and sedentarianism is constant in all groups. High blood pressure (>140/90) is greater than 10% in adults. Diabetes is increasing in urban areas, including in the indigenous population, and more than 40% of adults have a cholesterol level of more than 200 mg ml(-1). Promotion of healthy lifestyles is the main strategy to cope with this situation, particularly changing behaviour in food habits, physical activity and psychosocial factors. Changes in lifestyles will not only allow the prolonged life expectancy to be of better quality, but also will favour a decrease in the morbidity and mortality from chronic diseases, mainly cardiovascular diseases.

  12. The nutrition and health transition in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noor, Mohd Ismail

    2002-02-01

    The accelerated phase of industrialisation and urbanisation in recent decades has inevitably brought about changes in the lifestyle of Malaysians. Changes in dietary habits and sedentary lifestyles are known to be associated with changes in health and increased prevalence of chronic diseases in the population. The objective of this paper is to provide a better understanding of the link between demographic variables and food consumption patterns related to the nutrition transition in Malaysia. This review uses various reports and publications from several ministries and selected local studies. The statistics compiled over the last two decades have shown that as the population achieves affluence, intakes of calories, fats and sugars increase, which may account for the substantial increase in food importation bills over the same period. Similarly, the rapid growth of the fast food industry during the last decade has added another dimension to the change in food consumption patterns of Malaysians. With the exception of a study on adolescents, the prevalences of overweight and obesity in children and adults are not strictly comparable due to the difference in body mass index (BMI) cut-off points in children and the study protocol in adults, and hence should not be misinterpreted as trends. The recent recommendation to lower the BMI cut-off points for Asians would only increase the magnitude of the existing prevalence among adults. The need to promote healthy nutrition for the population must be pursued vigorously, as the escalation of nutrition-related chronic degenerative diseases - once an urban phenomenon--has now spread to the rural population at an alarming rate. This paper indicates that the problem is real and needs urgent attention because it may be just the tip of the iceberg.

  13. Understanding epidemiological transition in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, Suryakant; Arokiasamy, Perianayagam

    2014-01-01

    Background Omran's theory explains changing disease patterns over time predominantly from infectious to chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). India's epidemiological transition is characterized by dual burden of diseases. Kumar addressed low mortality and high morbidity in Kerala, which seems also to be true for India as a country in the current demographic scenario. Methods NSS data (1986–1987, 1995–1996, 2004) and aggregated data on causes of death provided by Registrar General India (RGI) were used to examine the structural changes in morbidity and causes of death. A zero-inflated poisson (ZIP) regression model and a beta-binomial model were used to corroborate the mounting age pattern of morbidity. Measures, namely the 25th and 75th percentiles of age-at-death and modal age-at-death, were used to examine the advances in mortality transition. Objective This study addressed the advances in epidemiological transition via exploring the structural changes in pattern of diseases and progress in mortality transition. Results The burden of NCDs has been increasing in old age without replacing the burden of communicable diseases. The manifold rise of chronic diseases in recent decades justifies the death toll and is responsible for transformation in the age pattern of morbidity. Over time, deaths have been concentrated near the modal age-at-death. Modal age-at-death increased linearly by 5 years for females (r2=0.9515) and males (r2=0.9020). Significant increase in modal age-at-death ascertained the dominance of old age mortality over the childhood/adult age mortality. Conclusions India experiences a dual burden of diseases associated with a remarkable transformation in the age pattern of morbidity and mortality, contemporaneous with structural changes in disease patterns. Continued progress in the pattern of diseases and mortality transition, accompanied by a linear rise in ex, unravels a compelling variation in advances found so far in epidemiological

  14. Simulating free-roaming cat population management options in open demographic environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip S Miller

    Full Text Available Large populations of free-roaming cats (FRCs generate ongoing concerns for welfare of both individual animals and populations, for human public health, for viability of native wildlife populations, and for local ecological damage. Managing FRC populations is a complex task, without universal agreement on best practices. Previous analyses that use simulation modeling tools to evaluate alternative management methods have focused on relative efficacy of removal (or trap-return, TR, typically involving euthanasia, and sterilization (or trap-neuter-return, TNR in demographically isolated populations. We used a stochastic demographic simulation approach to evaluate removal, permanent sterilization, and two postulated methods of temporary contraception for FRC population management. Our models include demographic connectivity to neighboring untreated cat populations through natural dispersal in a metapopulation context across urban and rural landscapes, and also feature abandonment of owned animals. Within population type, a given implementation rate of the TR strategy results in the most rapid rate of population decline and (when populations are isolated the highest probability of population elimination, followed in order of decreasing efficacy by equivalent rates of implementation of TNR and temporary contraception. Even low levels of demographic connectivity significantly reduce the effectiveness of any management intervention, and continued abandonment is similarly problematic. This is the first demographic simulation analysis to consider the use of temporary contraception and account for the realities of FRC dispersal and owned cat abandonment.

  15. Simulating Free-Roaming Cat Population Management Options in Open Demographic Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Philip S.; Boone, John D.; Briggs, Joyce R.; Lawler, Dennis F.; Levy, Julie K.; Nutter, Felicia B.; Slater, Margaret; Zawistowski, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    Large populations of free-roaming cats (FRCs) generate ongoing concerns for welfare of both individual animals and populations, for human public health, for viability of native wildlife populations, and for local ecological damage. Managing FRC populations is a complex task, without universal agreement on best practices. Previous analyses that use simulation modeling tools to evaluate alternative management methods have focused on relative efficacy of removal (or trap-return, TR), typically involving euthanasia, and sterilization (or trap-neuter-return, TNR) in demographically isolated populations. We used a stochastic demographic simulation approach to evaluate removal, permanent sterilization, and two postulated methods of temporary contraception for FRC population management. Our models include demographic connectivity to neighboring untreated cat populations through natural dispersal in a metapopulation context across urban and rural landscapes, and also feature abandonment of owned animals. Within population type, a given implementation rate of the TR strategy results in the most rapid rate of population decline and (when populations are isolated) the highest probability of population elimination, followed in order of decreasing efficacy by equivalent rates of implementation of TNR and temporary contraception. Even low levels of demographic connectivity significantly reduce the effectiveness of any management intervention, and continued abandonment is similarly problematic. This is the first demographic simulation analysis to consider the use of temporary contraception and account for the realities of FRC dispersal and owned cat abandonment. PMID:25426960

  16. How the world survived the population bomb: lessons from 50 years of extraordinary demographic history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, David

    2011-11-01

    The world population will reach 7 billion in late 2011, a demographic milestone that is causing renewed attention to the challenges caused by population growth. This article looks at the last 50 years of demographic change, one of the most extraordinary periods in demographic history. During this period, world population grew at rates that have never been seen before and will almost surely never be seen again. There were many concerns about the potential impact of rapid population growth in the 1960s, including mass starvation in countries such as India, depletion of nonrenewable resources, and increased poverty in low-income countries. The actual experience was very different. World food production increased faster than world population in every decade since the 1960s, resource prices fell during most of the period, and poverty declined significantly in much of the developing world. The article considers the economic and demographic explanations for the surprising successes of this important period in demographic history. It also looks at regions that have been less successful, especially Africa, and at the lessons for dealing with the important challenges that still remain.

  17. Effects of Demographic History on the Detection of Recombination Hotspots from Linkage Disequilibrium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dapper, Amy L; Payseur, Bret A

    2017-10-17

    In some species, meiotic recombination is concentrated in small genomic regions. These "recombination hotspots" leave signatures in fine-scale patterns of linkage disequilibrium, raising the prospect that the genomic landscape of hotspots can be characterized from sequence variation. This approach has led to the inference that hotspots evolve rapidly in some species, but are conserved in others. Historic demographic events, such as population bottlenecks, are known to affect patterns of linkage disequilibrium across the genome, violating population genetic assumptions of this approach. Although such events are prevalent, demographic history is generally ignored when making inferences about the evolution of recombination hotspots. To determine the effect of demography on the detection of recombination hotspots, we use the coalescent to simulate haplotypes with a known recombination landscape. We measure the ability of popular linkage disequilibrium-based programs to detect hotspots across a range of demographic histories, including population bottlenecks, hidden population structure, population expansions and population contractions. We find that demographic events have the potential to greatly reduce the power and increase the false positive rate of hotspot discovery. Neither the power nor the false positive rate of hotspot detection can be predicted without also knowing the demographic history of the sample. Our results suggest that ignoring demographic history likely overestimates the power to detect hotspots and therefore underestimates the degree of hotspot are sharing between species. We suggest strategies for incorporating demographic history into population genetic inferences about recombination hotspots. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

  18. Semantic Elaboration: ERPs Reveal Rapid Transition from Novel to Known

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Patricia J.; Jackson, Felicia L.

    2015-01-01

    Like language, semantic memory is productive: It extends itself through self-derivation of new information through logical processes such as analogy, deduction, and induction, for example. Though it is clear these productive processes occur, little is known about the time course over which newly self-derived information becomes incorporated into…

  19. Rapidly Activated Dynamic Phase Transitions in Nonlinear Solids

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-02-15

    I Form Approv# edAD -A263 601 AiENTA11ON PAGE- f____________18 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Lea"e blaWk 12. REPORT DATE 13. REPORT TYPE AND OATES COVEREO Feb...phase transforming media during high energy impact. Conversion of mechanical energy to thermal ener- gy has been studied by means of an extended theory...and Phase Structures in General Media , R. Fosdick, E. Dunn & M. Slemrod eds., IMA volume series, Springer- Verlag. Song, J. and T. L. Pence (1992

  20. [Demographic characteristics of dog population in Switzerland].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horisberger, U; Stärk, K D; Rüfenacht, J; Pillonel, C; Steiger, A

    2004-05-01

    Dog Registration data from three Cantons, patient data of 13 veterinary practices and registrations in the Swiss Dog Pedigree Book were collected, analysed and compared to results of a commercial household survey, to assess demographic characteristics of dog population in Switzerland. The proportion of "pure-bred" dogs was different depending on how the term was used, varying from 24% regarding registrations in the Swiss Dog Pedigree Book, to 75% regarding dogs with only one breed recorded in Veterinarian's patient-history-management systems. Most popular breeds were dogs called "German Shepherd/Shepherd", followed by the Labrador and Golden Retriever. Comparison of different data sources suggested regional differences in popularity of breeds. The average life expectancy was estimated on 10.5 and 11 years. Sex distribution was equal. One third of all male dogs and half of the female dogs were neutered. Regardless sex, neutering was more common in cross-bred dogs than in "pure-bred" dogs (OR = 1.9). Some bias in all sources had to be considered and there was a major concern regarding definition of breeds. However, the study was able to add different parameters out of different sources to a homogenous picture of demographic data of dog population in Switzerland.

  1. Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis: clinical and demographic characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafique, Arshad; Amjad, Nida; Chand, Prem; Zaidi, Syed Sohail Zahoor; Rana, Muhammad Suleman; Ahmed, Khalid; Ibrahim, Shahnaz

    2014-08-01

    To determine the clinical and demographic characteristics of children diagnosed with Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE). Case series. The Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, from January 2000 to June 2012. A retrospective analysis was done, regarding medical charts of 43 children under the age of 16 years with a discharge diagnosis of SSPE. Demographic and clinical characteristics were recorded. RESULTS were expressed as percentages. Most of the 43 patients were male (72%). The average age at presentation was 8.7 years with average duration of symptoms being 100.6 days. History of measles was present in 17 patients (39.5%). All children had seizures at presentation and 65% had cognitive impairment. Most patients required poly therapy for control of seizures. Sodium valproate was the most commonly used anti-epileptic agent; Isoprinosine was tried in 22 (51%) patients. CSF for antimeasles antibodies was positive in approximately 86% of the 40 (93%) children. EEG showed burst suppression pattern in 36 (83.7%) cases. Forty-two patients (97.6%) were discharged home in a vegetative state. SSPE is progressive neurodegenerative disorder. It can be prevented by timely immunization against measles. Measles antibody in the CSF is diagnostic for SSPE and is helpful in early diagnosis. Most patients experience a gradual but progressive decline in motor and cognitive functions.

  2. Rwanda: a case of demographic entrapment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonneux, L

    1994-12-17

    When King published 3 articles about demographic entrapment, he recommended that primary health care stop targeting child mortality, indeed that oral rehydration solutions be withheld, in order to reduce population size and evade the demographic trap of a region endangered by the growth of its own population. Using Rwanda as an example, it is possible to calculate the effect of decreasing child mortality on population growth. From 1970, when there were no programs to reduce child mortality, until 1993 the birth rate remained constant and the child mortality rate slowed so that an extra 0.5/5 children would survive to their fifth birthday. Thus, most of the population growth increase of 0.5% is probably attributable to decreased child mortality. If the high mortality rate had been maintained, the growth rate would have remained at 2.9% and the population doubling time would have been 24.2 years. The actual doubling time between 1970 and 1993 was 22.1 years, so only 2 years would have been gained by increased child mortality. The problem in Rwanda was not decreased child mortality, therefore, but the constant birth rate. Rwanda has a very Catholic population which embraces the Roman Catholic Church's anti-family planning policy. It is very hard for illiterate poor to refute the teachings of the church. The collapse of Rwanda caused by its overpopulation presents an example to the world of the devastating consequences of denying effective family planning to the poor.

  3. Demographic Characteristics of Strokes Types in Sanliurfa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yusuf Ižnanc

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: Sanliurfa training and research hospital for diagnosis and treatment of patients with stroke admitted demographic features planned. We aimed to study demographic feature of stroke patient who admitted to Sanliurfa training and research hospital for diagnosis and treatment. Material and Method: 01/10/2011 and 01/9/2012, ischemic and hemorrhagic brain training and research hospital in Sanliurfa vascular disease diagnosis and treatment without any exclusion criteria, patient sequential 454 retrospectively.Results: 366%u2019si 88 were ischemic, hemorrhagic stroke. 54.6% by sex male,% 45.4 were women. Average age: 67.86 di.56.3% radiologically roaming the front circulation infarct brain infarct% found the rear 23.2. Hospital stay duration: 9.27 day.. Hemorrhagic stroke was longer this Sura in the group. Mortality rate 4.6% in all in packaging (21 patients, ischemic in boots in 1.9% (7 patients, hemorrhagic of boots were found at 15.9% (14 patients.Discussion: our study of Sanliurfa province stroke data in terms of the region together, although a portion of their valuable results. In the summer, the ischemic stroke incidence is higher.

  4. Developmental Idealism, Body Weight and Shape, and Marriage Entry in Transitional China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hongwei

    2016-04-01

    New trends toward later and less marriage are emerging in post-reform China. Previous research has examined the changing individual-level socioeconomic and demographic characteristics shaping marriage entry in Chinese adults. Employing a cultural model known as developmental idealism (DI), this study argues that a new worldview specifying an ideal body type has become popular in the West and that this new worldview has been exported to China. This new part of the DI package is likely stratified by gender, has a stronger impact on women than on men, and has likely penetrated urban areas more than rural areas. Drawing on the 1991-2009 longitudinal data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, this study employs discrete-time logit models to estimate the relationships between various body types and transition to first marriage in Chinese young adults 18-30 years old. Body weight status and body shape are measured by body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), respectively, and further divided into categories of underweight, normal, and obese. Regression results indicate that larger values of BMI and WHR were associated with delayed entry into first marriage in urban women, whereas being overweight or obese was associated with accelerated transition to first marriage in rural men. Not only were these associations statistically significant, but their strengths were substantively remarkable. Findings from this study suggest that both body weight and body shape have important implications for marital success, independent of individual-level socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, and contribute to evolving gender and rural-urban disparities, as China is undergoing a rapid nutrition transition.

  5. Profile: Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, Kathleen; Collinson, Mark A; Gómez-Olivé, F Xavier; Mokoena, Obed; Twine, Rhian; Mee, Paul; Afolabi, Sulaimon A; Clark, Benjamin D; Kabudula, Chodziwadziwa W; Khosa, Audrey; Khoza, Simon; Shabangu, Mildred G; Silaule, Bernard; Tibane, Jeffrey B; Wagner, Ryan G; Garenne, Michel L; Clark, Samuel J; Tollman, Stephen M

    2012-01-01

    The Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system (HDSS), located in rural northeast South Africa close to the Mozambique border, was established in 1992 to support district health systems development led by the post-apartheid ministry of health. The HDSS (90 000 people), based on an annual update of resident status and vital events, now supports multiple investigations into the causes and consequences of complex health, population and social transitions. Observational work includes cohorts focusing on different stages along the life course, evaluation of national policy at population, household and individual levels and examination of household responses to shocks and stresses and the resulting pathways influencing health and well-being. Trials target children and adolescents, including promoting psycho-social well-being, preventing HIV transmission and reducing metabolic disease risk. Efforts to enhance the research platform include using automated measurement techniques to estimate cause of death by verbal autopsy, full ‘reconciliation’ of in- and out-migrations, follow-up of migrants departing the study area, recording of extra-household social connections and linkage of individual HDSS records with those from sub-district clinics. Fostering effective collaborations (including INDEPTH multi-centre work in adult health and ageing and migration and urbanization), ensuring cross-site compatibility of common variables and optimizing public access to HDSS data are priorities. PMID:22933647

  6. [Demographic trends and the burden of financing retirement].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chesnais, J

    1984-06-01

    The impact of demographic trends on the problem of financing the system of retirement pensions in France is analyzed. The demographic, economic, and sociopolitical factors affecting the pension system are first described, the influence of these factors during the period 1960-1982 is examined, and future prospects are assessed. Consideration is given both to demographic aging and to changes in the demographic structure of employment.

  7. [Population dynamics in Mexico: 1895-1990. The great demographic change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mier Y Teran, M

    1991-01-01

    In Mexico as in many other countries, the demographic transition began with mortality decline. With the great epidemics largely disappearing by the mid-19th century as a result of public health and sanitation measures, the mortality rate stabilized and began an accelerated decline after 1920. Life expectancy at birth was about 30 years in 1900 and declined during the decade of the Mexican Revolution. By the 1980s it had risen to 69 years. Fertility remained at high levels with slight variations until the late 1960s, when it began to decline 50 years after the start of the mortality decline. Government family planning programs intended to reduce the rate of population growth accelerated the fertility decline. Great changes thus affected Mexico¿s population during the 20th century. The total population increased from 14 million in 1900 to 82 million in 1990. Population growth was relatively slow and constant at around 1.3% until about 1910. It accelerated from the 1920s to the 1960s, and the number of children under age 15 increased sharply. Growth rates began to decline and the population to age in the 1970s. By the 1980s, Mexico¿s fertility rate reached an all-time low. The decline of population growth will be more apparent when the first cohorts of reduced size reach the peak fertility years shortly after 2000. Mexico¿s demographic transition is not yet complete. The evolution of fertility will be decisive in future demographic dynamics.

  8. Developing Arizona Turnaround Leaders to Build High-Capacity Schools in the Midst of Accountability Pressures and Changing Demographics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ylimaki, Rose M.; Brunderman, Lynnette; Bennett, Jeffrey V.; Dugan, Thad

    2014-01-01

    Today's accountability policies and changing demographics have created conditions in which leaders must rapidly build school capacity and improve outcomes in culturally diverse schools. This article presents findings from a mixed-methods evaluation of an Arizona Turnaround Leadership Development Project. The project drew on studies of turnaround…

  9. Turn and Face the Strain: Age Demographic Change and the Near Future of American Education. Policy Paper Brief

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladner, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    "Turn and Face the Strain: Age Demographic Change and the Near Future of American Education" outlines a fierce battle looming between the needs of public health care and education. A crisis is fast approaching that makes comprehensive improvement of America's public schools more important than ever. Faced with rapidly expanding…

  10. From demographic dividend to demographic burden: The impact of population ageing on economic growth in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Gaag, N.L.; de Beer, J.A.A.

    2015-01-01

    In the coming years, the share of the working-age population in the total population will start to decline in all countries of the European Union. All other things remaining equal, this so-called demographic burden will have a downward effect on economic growth. This paper examines whether the

  11. Beyond Demographics is Destiny: Understanding Economic Mitigation Strategies for Demographic Change in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Bangladesh, Russia, Japan, Mexico , Philippines, Ethiopia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, Germany, Iran, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Thailand, France, United... prostitution .124 Concerns over economic impacts, demographic impacts, the imbalanced gender ratio and human rights have led many to believe that the one...are actually forced into prostitution .270 Overall, China appears likely to continue its high levels of employment of elderly workers, potentially

  12. 3D face analysis for demographic biometrics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tokola, Ryan A [ORNL; Mikkilineni, Aravind K [ORNL; Boehnen, Chris Bensing [ORNL

    2015-01-01

    Despite being increasingly easy to acquire, 3D data is rarely used for face-based biometrics applications beyond identification. Recent work in image-based demographic biometrics has enjoyed much success, but these approaches suffer from the well-known limitations of 2D representations, particularly variations in illumination, texture, and pose, as well as a fundamental inability to describe 3D shape. This paper shows that simple 3D shape features in a face-based coordinate system are capable of representing many biometric attributes without problem-specific models or specialized domain knowledge. The same feature vector achieves impressive results for problems as diverse as age estimation, gender classification, and race classification.

  13. Extraparenchymal neurocysticercosis: Demographic, clinicoradiological, and inflammatory features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcin Sierra, Mariana; Arroyo, Mariana; Cadena Torres, May; Ramírez Cruz, Nancy; García Hernández, Fernando; Taboada, Diana; Galicia Martínez, Ángeles; Govezensky, Tzipe; Sciutto, Edda; Toledo, Andrea; Fleury, Agnès

    2017-06-01

    Extraparenchymal neurocysticercosis (ExPNCC), an infection caused by Taenia solium cysticerci that mainly occurs in the ventricular compartment (Ve) or the basal subarachnoid space (SAb), is more severe but less frequent and much less studied than parenchymal neurocysticercosis (ParNCC). Demographic, clinical, radiological, and lumbar cerebrospinal fluid features of patients affected by ExPNCC are herein described and compared with those of ParNCC patients. 429 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of neurocysticercosis, attending the Instituto Nacional de Neurología y Neurocirugía, a tertiary reference center in Mexico City, from 2000 through 2014, were included. Demographic information, signs and symptoms, radiological patterns, and lumbar cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) laboratory values were retrieved from medical records for all patients. Data were statistically analyzed to assess potential differences depending on cyst location and to determine the effects of age and sex on the disease presentation. In total, 238 ExPNCC and 191 ParNCC patients were included. With respect to parenchymal cysts, extraparenchymal parasites were diagnosed at an older age (P = 0.002), chiefly caused intracranial hypertension (P < 0.0001), were more frequently multiple and vesicular (P < 0.0001), and CSF from these patients showed higher protein concentration and cell count (P < 0.0001). SAb patients were diagnosed at an older age than Ve patients, and showed more frequently seizures, vesicular cysticerci, and higher CSF cellularity. Gender and age modulated some traits of the disease. This study evidenced clear clinical, radiological, and inflammatory differences between ExPNCC and ParNCC, and between SAb and Ve patients, and demonstrated that parasite location determines different pathological entities.

  14. Geriatric trauma: demographics, injuries, and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Julie M; Sciadini, Marcus F; Sinclair, Elizabeth; O'Toole, Robert V

    2012-09-01

    To identify injuries that elderly sustain during high-energy trauma and determine which are associated with mortality. Retrospective review of prospectively collected database. Academic trauma center. Patients selected from database of all trauma admissions from January 2004 through June 2009. Study population consisted of patients directly admitted from scene of injury who sustained high-energy trauma with at least one orthopaedic injury and were 65 years or older (n = 597). Review of demographics, trauma markers, injuries, and disposition statuses. Statistical analysis using χ test, Student t test, and logistic regression analysis. The most common fractures were of the rib, distal radius, pelvic ring, facial bones, proximal humerus, clavicle, ankle, and sacrum. The injuries associated with the highest mortality rates were fractures of the cervical spine with neurological deficit (47%), at the C2 level (44%), and of the proximal femur (25%), pelvic ring (25%), clavicle (24%), and distal humerus (24%). The fractures significantly associated with mortality were fractures of the clavicle (P = 0.001), foot joints (P = 0.001), proximal humerus or shaft and head of the humerus (P = 0.002), sacroiliac joint (P = 0.004), and distal ulna (P = 0.002). Elderly patients present with significantly worse injuries, remain in the hospital longer, require greater use of resources after discharge, and die at 3 times the rate of the younger population. Although the high mortality rates associated with cervical spine, hip, and pelvic ring fractures were not unexpected, the injuries that were statistically associated with mortality were unexpected. Injuries such as clavicle fracture were statistically associated with mortality. As our population ages and becomes more active, the demographic may gain in clinical importance. Prognostic Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

  15. Extraparenchymal neurocysticercosis: Demographic, clinicoradiological, and inflammatory features.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Marcin Sierra

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Extraparenchymal neurocysticercosis (ExPNCC, an infection caused by Taenia solium cysticerci that mainly occurs in the ventricular compartment (Ve or the basal subarachnoid space (SAb, is more severe but less frequent and much less studied than parenchymal neurocysticercosis (ParNCC. Demographic, clinical, radiological, and lumbar cerebrospinal fluid features of patients affected by ExPNCC are herein described and compared with those of ParNCC patients.429 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of neurocysticercosis, attending the Instituto Nacional de Neurología y Neurocirugía, a tertiary reference center in Mexico City, from 2000 through 2014, were included. Demographic information, signs and symptoms, radiological patterns, and lumbar cerebrospinal fluid (CSF laboratory values were retrieved from medical records for all patients. Data were statistically analyzed to assess potential differences depending on cyst location and to determine the effects of age and sex on the disease presentation. In total, 238 ExPNCC and 191 ParNCC patients were included. With respect to parenchymal cysts, extraparenchymal parasites were diagnosed at an older age (P = 0.002, chiefly caused intracranial hypertension (P < 0.0001, were more frequently multiple and vesicular (P < 0.0001, and CSF from these patients showed higher protein concentration and cell count (P < 0.0001. SAb patients were diagnosed at an older age than Ve patients, and showed more frequently seizures, vesicular cysticerci, and higher CSF cellularity. Gender and age modulated some traits of the disease.This study evidenced clear clinical, radiological, and inflammatory differences between ExPNCC and ParNCC, and between SAb and Ve patients, and demonstrated that parasite location determines different pathological entities.

  16. Rapid Prototyping Laboratory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The ARDEC Rapid Prototyping (RP) Laboratory was established in December 1992 to provide low cost RP capabilities to the ARDEC engineering community. The Stratasys,...

  17. The effects of an intentional transition from extrapleural pneumonectomy to extended pleurectomy/decortication

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sharkey, Annabel J; Tenconi, Sara; Nakas, Apostolos; Waller, David A

    2016-01-01

    .... However, doubts surrounding the efficacy of EPP, and the change in demographics of the affected population, have prompted a transition in our practice towards extended pleurectomy/decortication (EPD...

  18. Dynamic transition from Mach to regular reflection of shock waves in a steady flow

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, K

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The steady, two-dimensional transition criteria between regular and Mach reflection are well established. Little has been done on the dynamic effect on transition due to a rapidly rotating wedge. Results from experiments and computations done...

  19. Transitions: A Personal Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Ann Stace

    1995-01-01

    Distinguishes between unchosen transitions (children maturing and leaving, parents aging, companies downsizing) and chosen ones (moving, divorce, marriage, career changes). Describes the steps one goes through: uneasiness, renewed energy, complaining, exploration, partial transition, and the completed transition. (JOW)

  20. 'Fair innings' in the face of ageing and demographic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazra, Nisha C; Gulliford, Martin C; Rudisill, Caroline

    2017-12-26

    There are now 125 million people aged 80 years and over worldwide, projected by the United Nations to grow threefold by 2050. While increases in life expectancy and rapid increases in the older-age population are considered positive developments, the consequential future health care burden represents a leading concern for health services. We revisit Williams' 'fair innings' argument from 1997, in light of technological and demographic changes, and challenge the notion that greater longevity may impose an unfair burden on younger generations. We discuss perspectives on the equity-efficiency trade-off in terms of their implications for the growing over-80 population, as well as society in general. This includes questioning the comparison of treatment cost-effectiveness in younger vs. older populations when using quality-adjusted life years and the transience of life expectancies over generations. While recognising that there will never be a clear consensus regarding societal value judgements, we present empirical evidence on the very elderly that lends support to a stronger anti-ageist stance given current increases in longevity.

  1. A longitudinal study of demographic factors associated with stressors and symptoms in African refugees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Sulani; Gavian, Margaret; Frazier, Patricia; Johnson, David; Spring, Marline; Westermeyer, Joseph; Butcher, James; Halcon, Linda; Robertson, Cheryl; Savik, Kay; Jaranson, James

    2013-10-01

    The objectives of this study were to assess differences in premigration, transit, and resettlement stressor exposure and post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms as a function of demographic characteristics (i.e., gender, ethnicity, age, time in United States) and to examine the concurrent and longitudinal relations between stressor exposure and PTSD symptoms. The sample consisted of adult (18-78 years) Somali and Oromo refugee men and women (N = 437). Qualitative data regarding participants' self-nominated worst stressors collected at Time 2 (T2) informed the development of quantitative scales assessing premigration, transit, and resettlement stress created using items collected at Time 1 (T1). PTSD symptoms were measured at both T1 and T2. Quantitative analyses showed that levels of stressor exposure and PTSD symptoms differed as a function of refugee demographic characteristics. For example, Oromo, more recent, women, and older refugees reported more premigration and resettlement stressors. Oromo refugees and refugee men reported more PTSD symptoms in regression analyses with other factors controlled. Premigration, transit, and resettlement stressor exposure generally was associated with higher PTSD symptom levels. Results underscore the importance of assessing stress exposure comprehensively throughout the refugee experience and caution against overgeneralizing between and within refugee groups. © 2013 American Orthopsychiatric Association.

  2. Sharing high growth across generations: pensions and demographic transition in China

    OpenAIRE

    Song, Zheng; Storesletten, Kjetil; Wang, Yikai; Zilibotti, Fabrizio

    2012-01-01

    Intergenerational inequality and old-age poverty are salient isuues in contemporary China. China's aging population threatens the fiscal sustainability of its pension system, a key vehicle for intergenerational redistribution. We analyze the positive and normative effects of alternative pension reforms, using a dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates population dynamics and productivity growth. Although a reform is necessary, delaying its implementation implies large welfar...

  3. The Contraceptive Revolution and the Second Demographic Transition: An Economic Model of Sex, Fertility, and Marriage

    OpenAIRE

    Joseph Burke; Catherine Pakaluk

    2010-01-01

    We present a model of household decisions regarding sex, fertility, marriage, and consumption. Households choose marital status based on the expected utility of marriage, and then sex, children, and consumption of other goods to maximize utility subject to a budget and a fertility constraint. An increase in contraceptive efficacy generally leads to increased sexual activity but has ambiguous effects on fertility. Also, increases in contraceptive efficacy lead to lower marriage rates and highe...

  4. Disease introduction is associated with a phase transition in bighorn sheep demographics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manlove, Kezia; Cassirer, E. Frances; Cross, Paul C.; Plowright, Raina K.; Hudson, Peter J.

    2016-01-01

    Ecological theory suggests that pathogens are capable of regulating or limiting host population dynamics, and this relationship has been empirically established in several settings. However, although studies of childhood diseases were integral to the development of disease ecology, few studies show population limitation by a disease affecting juveniles. Here, we present empirical evidence that disease in lambs constrains population growth in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) based on 45 years of population-level and 18 years of individual-level monitoring across 12 populations. While populations generally increased (λ = 1.11) prior to disease introduction, most of these same populations experienced an abrupt change in trajectory at the time of disease invasion, usually followed by stagnant-to-declining growth rates (λ = 0.98) over the next 20 years. Disease-induced juvenile mortality imposed strong constraints on population growth that were not observed prior to disease introduction, even as adult survival returned to pre-invasion levels. Simulations suggested that models including persistent disease-induced mortality in juveniles qualitatively matched observed population trajectories, whereas models that only incorporated all-age disease events did not. We use these results to argue that pathogen persistence may pose a lasting, but under-recognized, threat to host populations, particularly in cases where clinical disease manifests primarily in juveniles.

  5. Mapping sleeping sickness in Western Africa in a context of demographic transition and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cecchi, G; Courtin, F; Paone, M; Diarra, A; Franco, J R; Mattioli, R C; Simarro, P P

    2009-06-01

    Human population growth, climate change and economic development are causing major environmental modifications in Western Africa, which will have important repercussions on the epidemiology of sleeping sickness. A new initiative, the Atlas of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), aims at assembling and geo-referencing all epidemiological data derived from both active screening activities and passive surveillance. A geographic database enables to generate up-to-date disease maps at a range of scales and of unprecedented spatial accuracy. We present preliminary results for seven West African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Mali and Togo) and briefly discuss the relevance of the Atlas for future monitoring, control and research activities.

  6. Mixing times towards demographic equilibrium in insect populations with temperature variable age structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damos, Petros

    2015-08-01

    In this study, we use entropy related mixing rate modules to measure the effects of temperature on insect population stability and demographic breakdown. The uncertainty in the age of the mother of a randomly chosen newborn, and how it is moved after a finite act of time steps, is modeled using a stochastic transformation of the Leslie matrix. Age classes are represented as a cycle graph and its transitions towards the stable age distribution are brought forth as an exact Markov chain. The dynamics of divergence, from a non equilibrium state towards equilibrium, are evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy. Moreover, Kullback-Leibler distance is applied as information-theoretic measure to estimate exact mixing times of age transitions probabilities towards equilibrium. Using empirically data, we show that on the initial conditions and simulated projection's trough time, that population entropy can effectively be applied to detect demographic variability towards equilibrium under different temperature conditions. Changes in entropy are correlated with the fluctuations of the insect population decay rates (i.e. demographic stability towards equilibrium). Moreover, shorter mixing times are directly linked to lower entropy rates and vice versa. This may be linked to the properties of the insect model system, which in contrast to warm blooded animals has the ability to greatly change its metabolic and demographic rates. Moreover, population entropy and the related distance measures that are applied, provide a means to measure these rates. The current results and model projections provide clear biological evidence why dynamic population entropy may be useful to measure population stability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Some Demographic Changes in the Population of Montenegro with the Projection of Future Demographic Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Rajović

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Dramatic demographic changes through which in recent decade’s passes Montenegrin society, the consequences arising from the new realities require a serious socio-political engagement. Process of population aging, that began the seventies of the 20th century, represents a significant problem. The process of demographic change was accompanied by an internal migration to major urban centers, primarily Podgorica and Montenegrin coast, leading to emptying the interior of Montenegro. Unfortunately, this development of the population structure of Montenegro opens a series of questions and challenges that would the creators of the future you should put high on the scale of its priorities. In this text we will point out on change of total number of citizens of Montenegro according to the base and chain indexes of 1921-2011 and population in Montenegro 2016–2091 (cohort model projections.

  8. [On present demographic developments (author's transl)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, W

    1979-02-01

    The present demographic situation in West Germany is discussed. The decrease in the population of West Germany can be attributed to the decrease in the number of marriages and the number of live births as well as the increase in the number of divorces in recent years. These tendencies are especially evident since 1970. Population models have the disadvantage of being constructed after the fact and cannot assume that a desired goal will be reached. 90% of the population of West Germany serves as employees. This, along with the increasing role of women in the work force from 1969-1976, affects marriage and birth rates. The point is reached where the state begins to play a role in order to maintain a stable level of population, usually through economic incentives. The moral aspect of such programs can not be ignored, as persons can be given a false sense of their duties by economic incentives. The importation of workers from other countries is feasible only ss long as these workers meet necessary qualifications and the domestic and foreign economic situations are favorable.

  9. Demographic controls of future global fire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

    2016-08-01

    Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

  10. Dhat syndrome in relation to demographic characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Nashi

    2005-01-01

    Background: The area of men's sexual health has been poorly understood, particularly with reference to South Asian cultures. The belief that losing semen is detrimental to health is a concept common to both Oriental and Occidental thinking. Aim: To estimate the number of patients with the dhat syndrome consulting different professionals in Lahore and to examine their demographic characteristics. Method: Seventy health professionals of various types were approached and asked to fill in a daily record form for all patients reporting at their clinics for a period of 1 month. Results: A total of 1777 patients were reported to attend the outpatient clinics of health professionals of various types over a period of 1 month. The majority of patients consulted hakims for professional help. Most of the patients were single, with a mean age of 24 years and had a monthly income of less than Rs 3000. Conclusion: These data have important implications for patients, professionals and researchers. The alarming number of people consulting various professionals to seek help for anxiety due to semen loss highlights the fact that research into and interventions for this neglected area of men's sexual health are urgently required.

  11. Incidence and Demographics of Pediatric Intracranial Hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillson, Natalie; Jones, Charlotte; Reem, Rachel E; Rogers, David L; Zumberge, Nicholas; Aylward, Shawn C

    2017-08-01

    We analyzed the incidence and demographic features of pediatric intracranial hypertension. Inpatient and outpatient encounters of children aged 18 years or younger who were diagnosed with primary (idiopathic) or secondary intracranial hypertension between January 2010 and December 2013 were identified. Data were collected from a subspecialty clinic devoted to intracranial hypertension and the sole children's hospital in a large Midwestern city of the United States. Estimated incidence rates were calculated based on the number of newly diagnosed patients in our hospital's primary service area, which includes seven central Ohio counties. Sex, race, body mass index, socioeconomic status, and geographic distribution were also noted. A total of 74 pediatric patients were diagnosed with intracranial hypertension (49 primary/idiopathic and 25 secondary) between January 2010 and December 2013. Using census data, we determined the pediatric population in our service area during the four-year period. The Ohio Hospital Association's database indicated that 92.3% of patients aged 0 to 17 years residing in the region sought care at our institution. By combining these data, we calculated an annual incidence of primary and secondary intracranial hypertension of 0.63 and 0.32 per 100,000 children, respectively. The estimated annual incidence of pediatric primary intracranial hypertension in our seven county service area in central Ohio is similar to previous pediatric reports from other countries and is 67% of that reported in the US adult population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Demographic evidence for adaptive theories of aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitteldorf, J J

    2012-07-01

    Pleiotropic theories for the evolutionary origins of senescence have been ascendant for forty years (see, for example, G. Williams (1957) Evolution, 11, 398-411; T. Kirkwood (1977) Nature, 270, 301-304), and it is not surprising that interpreters of demographic data seek to frame their results in this context. But some of that evidence finds a much more natural explanation in terms of adaptive aging. Here we re-interpret the 1997 results of the Centenarian Study in Boston, which found in their sample of centenarian women an excess of late childbearing. The finding was originally interpreted as a selection effect: a metabolic link between late menopause and longevity. But we demonstrate that this interpretation is statistically strained, and that the data in fact indicate a causal link: bearing a child late in life induces a metabolic response that promotes longevity. This conclusion directly contradicts some pleiotropic theories of aging that postulate a "cost of reproduction", and it supports theories of aging as an adaptive genetic program.

  13. Demographic factors and genetic variation influence population persistence under environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willi, Yvonne; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2009-01-01

    Population persistence has been studied in a conservation context to predict the fate of small or declining populations. Persistence models have explored effects on extinction of random demographic and environmental fluctuations, but in the face of directional environmental change they should also integrate factors affecting whether a population can adapt. Here, we examine the population-size dependence of demographic and genetic factors and their likely contributions to extinction time under scenarios of environmental change. Parameter estimates were derived from experimental populations of the rainforest species, Drosophila birchii, held in the lab for 10 generations at census sizes of 20, 100 and 1000, and later exposed to five generations of heat-knockdown selection. Under a model of directional change in the thermal environment, rapid extinction of populations of size 20 was caused by a combination of low growth rate (r) and high stochasticity in r. Populations of 100 had significantly higher reproductive output, lower stochasticity in r and more additive genetic variance (V(A)) than populations of 20, but they were predicted to persist less well than the largest size class. Even populations of 1000 persisted only a few hundred generations under realistic estimates of environmental change because of low V(A) for heat-knockdown resistance. The experimental results document population-size dependence of demographic and adaptability factors. The simulations illustrate a threshold influence of demographic factors on population persistence, while genetic variance has a more elastic impact on persistence under environmental change.

  14. Organizational Transition and Change Resistance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciprian Nicolescu

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on the very important atopic of organizational transition and change resistance. It is divided in four parts. The first part deals with transition inevitability and its content in the change process. The second part of the paper refers to the change resistance. After a short presentation of a recent approach of this topic, elaborated by Rick Maurer, the authors present their point of view, identifying 14 main causes refering to the main factors involved in the organizational transition. In the third part, authors have formulated a set of key elements which should be taken into consideration in order to achieve a rapid and succesful organizational changes. These key elements are valable for any type of organization – entreprise, institution, locality, region, country a.s.a. The last part of the study deals with conflicts approach, which appear almost always during organizational transition. The conflicts are separated in three categories and for whom are presented the methodes recommended in order to solve them with good results.

  15. Passive Supporters of Terrorism and Phase Transitions

    CERN Document Server

    August, Friedrich; Delitzscher, Sascha; Hiller, Gerald; Krueger, Tyll

    2010-01-01

    We discuss some social contagion processes to describe the formation and spread of radical opinions. The dynamics of opinion spread involves local threshold processes as well as mean field effects. We calculate and observe phase transitions in the dynamical variables resulting in a rapidly increasing number of passive supporters. This strongly indicates that military solutions are inappropriate.

  16. Phase Transition in Strongly Degenerate Hydrogen Plasma

    OpenAIRE

    Filinov, V. S.; Fortov, V. E.; Bonitz, M.; Levashov, P. R.

    2001-01-01

    Direct fermionic path-integral Monte-Carlo simulations of strongly coupled hydrogen are presented. Our results show evidence for the hypothetical plasma phase transition. Its most remarkable manifestation is the appearance of metallic droplets which are predicted to be crucial for the electrical conductivity allowing to explain the rapid increase observed in recent shock compression measurments.

  17. Prison health in transitional Albania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaka, Drita; Roshi, Enver; Burazeri, Genc

    2014-01-01

    The information about prisoners' health in transitional countries including Albania is limited. The aim of our study was to assess the health status and its correlates among adult prisoners in Albania, a post-communist country in Southeast Europe. This was a cross-sectional study conducted in 2013 including 401 prisoners in Albania [290 (72%) males and 111 (28%) females]. All participants were administered an anonymous and structured questionnaire including information on self-perceived health status, health-related problems, lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol intake and drug use) and demographic and socioeconomic characteristics (age, sex, educational attainment and income level). Binary logistic regression was used to assess the association between self-reported health status and covariates. Overall, 173 (43.1%) of prisoners included in this study reported a poor health status, with a clear predominance of the female gender (P Albania to make a significant progress in health services provision for prisoners, which constitute a particularly vulnerable population subgroup.

  18. Electroweak phase transition recent results

    CERN Document Server

    Csikor, Ferenc

    2000-01-01

    Recent results of four-dimensional (4d) lattice simulations on the finite temperature electroweak phase transition (EWPT) are discussed. The phase transition is of first order in the SU(2)-Higgs model below the end point Higgs mass 66.5$\\pm$1.4 GeV. For larger masses a rapid cross-over appears. This result completely agrees with the results of the dimensional reduction approach. Including the full Standard Model (SM) perturbatively the end point is at 72.1$\\pm$1.4 GeV. Combined with recent LEP Higgs mass lower bounds, this excludes any EWPT in the SM. A one-loop calculation of the static potential makes possible a precise comparison of the lattice and perturbative results. Recent 4d lattice studies of the Minimal Supersymmetric SM (MSSM) are also mentioned.

  19. Multiregional demographic projections in practice: a metropolitan example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congdon, P

    1992-01-01

    "This paper examines options for local and regional projections which reflect both demographic interdependencies with jobs and housing at this area scale, and the inapplicability of traditional demographic projection methods to population or areal subdivisions. This context for local demographic projections requires constraints (for example, to job and housing forecasts or to higher area totals), the use of proxy or explanatory indicators to predict demographic rates or totals, and parameterization of demographic schedules, to facilitate comparison across numerous localities and to set future assumptions about demographic components. The traditional framework of self-contained projection by deterministic cohort survival is therefore widened to include regio-scientific and stochastic modelling concepts. The framework for empirical analysis is London [England] and its boroughs." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND GER) excerpt

  20. Demographics of the European apicultural industry.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie-Pierre Chauzat

    Full Text Available Over the last few years, many European and North American countries have reported a high rate of disorders (mortality, dwindling and disappearance affecting honeybee colonies (Apis mellifera. Although beekeeping has become an increasingly professional activity in recent years, the beekeeping industry remains poorly documented in Europe. The European Union Reference Laboratory for Honeybee Health sent a detailed questionnaire to each Member State, in addition to Kosovo and Norway, to determine the demographics and state of their beekeeping industries. Based on data supplied by the National Reference Laboratory for honeybee diseases in each European country, a European database was created to describe the beekeeping industry including the number and types of beekeepers, operation size, industry production, and health (notifiable diseases, mortalities. The total number of beekeepers in Europe was estimated at 620,000. European honey production was evaluated at around 220,000 tons in 2010. The price of honey varied from 1.5 to 40 €/kg depending on the country and on the distribution network. The estimated colony winter mortality varied from 7 to 28% depending on the country and the origin of the data (institutional survey or beekeeping associations. This survey documents the high heterogeneity of the apicultural industry within the European Union. The high proportion of non-professional beekeepers and the small mean number of colonies per beekeeper were the only common characteristics at European level. The tremendous variation in European apicultural industries has implication for any comprehensive epidemiological or economic analysis of the industry. This variability needs to be taken into account for such analysis as well as for future policy development. The industry would be served if beekeeping registration was uniformly implemented across member states. Better information on the package bee and queen production would help in understanding

  1. Demographics of the European apicultural industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chauzat, Marie-Pierre; Cauquil, Laura; Roy, Lise; Franco, Stéphanie; Hendrikx, Pascal; Ribière-Chabert, Magali

    2013-01-01

    Over the last few years, many European and North American countries have reported a high rate of disorders (mortality, dwindling and disappearance) affecting honeybee colonies (Apis mellifera). Although beekeeping has become an increasingly professional activity in recent years, the beekeeping industry remains poorly documented in Europe. The European Union Reference Laboratory for Honeybee Health sent a detailed questionnaire to each Member State, in addition to Kosovo and Norway, to determine the demographics and state of their beekeeping industries. Based on data supplied by the National Reference Laboratory for honeybee diseases in each European country, a European database was created to describe the beekeeping industry including the number and types of beekeepers, operation size, industry production, and health (notifiable diseases, mortalities). The total number of beekeepers in Europe was estimated at 620,000. European honey production was evaluated at around 220,000 tons in 2010. The price of honey varied from 1.5 to 40 €/kg depending on the country and on the distribution network. The estimated colony winter mortality varied from 7 to 28% depending on the country and the origin of the data (institutional survey or beekeeping associations). This survey documents the high heterogeneity of the apicultural industry within the European Union. The high proportion of non-professional beekeepers and the small mean number of colonies per beekeeper were the only common characteristics at European level. The tremendous variation in European apicultural industries has implication for any comprehensive epidemiological or economic analysis of the industry. This variability needs to be taken into account for such analysis as well as for future policy development. The industry would be served if beekeeping registration was uniformly implemented across member states. Better information on the package bee and queen production would help in understanding the ability of

  2. Epidemiology and demographics of aggressive periodontitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susin, Cristiano; Haas, Alex N; Albandar, Jasim M

    2014-06-01

    Epidemiologic studies of aggressive periodontitis have used different study designs and a range of examination methods and case definitions, and this greatly complicates the study of disease prevalence in populations. The wide range of disease case definitions, in particular, profoundly impacts the reported rate of disease, and the use of a standard disease definition is strongly recommended. Surveys of aggressive periodontitis that use only clinical examinations, without radiographic examination to confirm the presence of a distinctive pattern of tissue loss, may overestimate the prevalence of this disease, particularly when a low threshold of attachment loss is used. The prevalence of aggressive periodontitis varies significantly between populations, and differences in race/ethnicities seem to be a key factor. Studies consistently show that aggressive periodontitis is most prevalent in Africa and in populations of African descent and is least prevalent in Caucasians in Europe and North America. Among children and young adults the prevalence of this disease is higher in older than in younger age groups. Most studies show comparable disease prevalence in male and female subjects. These findings show that aggressive periodontitis is a significant health problem in certain populations. This review also highlights a lack of information on the epidemiology and demographics of this disease in many parts of the world, particularly in Asia and Africa. Epidemiologic studies of aggressive periodontitis in high-risk populations are important and could provide vital data on the determinants of this disease, and this information is needed for the establishment of effective health-promotion measures. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Demographic features of subjects with congenital glaucoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamçelik, Nevbahar; Atalay, Eray; Bolukbasi, Selim; Çapar, Olgu; Ozkok, Ahmet

    2014-01-01

    Context: Congenital glaucoma is a potentially blinding ocular disease of the childhood. Identification of the possible associated risk factors and may be helpful for prevention or early detection of this public health problem. Aims: To demonstrate the demographic features of congenital glaucoma subjects. Setting and Design: The charts of congenital glaucoma patients referred to Tamcelik Glaucoma Center were retrospectively reviewed through the dates of 2000 and 2013. Materials and Methods: Analyzed data included diagnosis, age at first presentation, symptoms at first presentation, laterality of the disease, sex, presence of consanguinity, family history of congenital glaucoma, maturity of the fetus at delivery, and maternal age at conception. Statistical Analysis Used: Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 19.0 by IBM (SPSS Inc, Chicago, Illinois, USA) was used to compare the mean of continuous variables with Student's t-test and analysis of variance (ANOVA) and χ2 test was used to test differences in proportions of categorical variables. Results: The data of 600 eyes of 311 patients were analyzed. The distribution of primary and secondary congenital glaucoma among the patients were 63.3% (n = 197) and 36.7% (n = 114), respectively. Of the 311 patients, 57.2% (n = 178) were male and 42.8% (n = 133) were female. The overall frequency of bilateral disease was 92.3% (n = 287). Overall rate of consanguinity and positive family history was 45.3% (n = 141) and 21.2% (n = 66), respectively. Conclusions: Bilateral disease in this study was more common than previously reported studies. Positive family history was more frequent in primary congenital glaucoma although not statistically significant. PMID:24881602

  4. Rapid shallow breathing

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... the smallest air passages of the lungs in children ( bronchiolitis ) Pneumonia or other lung infection Transient tachypnea of the newborn Anxiety and panic Other serious lung disease Home Care Rapid, shallow breathing should not be treated at home. It is ...

  5. Rapid Strep Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... worse than normal. Your first thoughts turn to strep throat. A rapid strep test in your doctor’s office ... your suspicions.Viruses cause most sore throats. However, strep throat is an infection caused by the Group A ...

  6. Army Leader Transitions Handbook

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    usacac.army.mil/CAC2/CAL. LEADER TRANSITION MODEL Leader Transitions Handbook 1 The Army Leader Transitions Handbook is designed to help leaders plan and...D-1) Managing transitions is a leadership responsibility. Leader transitions within the Army are significant events for any organization due to...current. Administrative skills - Brush up on personnel management , especially leader development. Know UCMJ, promotions, administrative discharge

  7. RAPID3? Aptly named!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berthelot, J-M

    2014-01-01

    The RAPID3 score is the sum of three 0-10 patient self-report scores: pain, functional impairment on MDHAQ, and patient global estimate. It requires 5 seconds for scoring and can be used in all rheumatologic conditions, although it has mostly been used in rheumatoid arthritis where cutoffs for low disease activity (12/30) have been set. A RAPID3 score of ≤ 3/30 with 1 or 0 swollen joints (RAPID3 ≤ 3 + ≤ SJ1) provides remission criteria comparable to Boolean, SDAI, CDAI, and DAS28 remission criteria, in far less time than a formal joint count. RAPID3 performs as well as the DAS28 in separating active drugs from placebos in clinical trials. RAPID3 also predicts subsequent structural disease progression. RAPID3 can be determined at short intervals at home, allowing the determination of the area under the curve of disease activity between two visits and flare detection. However, RAPID3 should not be seen as a substitute for DAS28 and face to face visits in routine care. Monitoring patient status with only self-report information without a rheumatologist's advice (including joints and physical examination, and consideration of imaging and laboratory tests) may indeed be as undesirable for most patients than joint examination without a patient questionnaire. Conversely, combining the RAPID3 and the DAS28 may consist in faster or more sensitive confirmation that a medication is effective. Similarly, better enquiring of most important concerns of patients (pain, functional status and overall opinion on their disorder) should reinforces patients' confidence in their rheumatologist and treatments.

  8. Demographic Composition of the Online Buyers in Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    NARDALI, Sinan

    2011-01-01

    Demographic variables may have an impact on Internet usage patterns. Online buyers’ characteristics keeps changing time along with the shifting dynamics of Turkish consumers’ demographic profile and day by day online shopping becomes a safe and popular option in Turkey. Current study investigates demographic composition of the online buyers that influence consumer attitudes towards online shopping behavior in Izmir, the third largest city in Turkey. This study examines attitudes toward online...

  9. Some demographical aspects of the newly nominated towns in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berekméri Mária

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Present paper tries to present some demographical aspects of the newest towns declared in the post-socialist period in Romania. First we draw a sketch of the current demographic tendencies and structures, as basis for the evolution of settlements and new towns. In the second part of our paper we describe a few elements of the demographic profile of new towns declared in post-socialist period.

  10. Observables of non-equilibrium phase transition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tomasik, Boris [Univerzita Mateja Bela, FPV, Banska Bystrica (Slovakia); Ceske vysoke uceni technicke v Praze, FJFI, Prague (Czech Republic); Schulc, Martin; Kopecna, Renata [Ceske vysoke uceni technicke v Praze, FJFI, Prague (Czech Republic); Melo, Ivan [Univerzita Mateja Bela, FPV, Banska Bystrica (Slovakia); Zilinska univerzita, Elektrotechnicka fakulta, Zilina (Slovakia)

    2016-08-15

    A rapidly expanding fireball which undergoes first-order phase transition will supercool and proceed via spinodal decomposition. Hadrons are produced from the individual fragments as well as the left-over matter filling the space between them. Emission from fragments should be visible in rapidity correlations, particularly of protons. In addition to that, even within narrow centrality classes, rapidity distributions will be fluctuating from one event to another in case of fragmentation. This can be identified with the help of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Finally, we present a method which allows to sort events with varying rapidity distributions, in such a way that events with similar rapidity histograms are grouped together. (orig.)

  11. Transition from Open to Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy at a Public ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Backgound: It is almost two decades since laparoscopic surgery was first introduced in Kenya. This study was aimed at evaluating the transition to laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) with analysis of patient demographics and other relevant data. Methods: This was a retrospective cross-sectional study of records of 448 ...

  12. The nature of learning and work transitioning in boundaryless work ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Transition is a common characteristic of our lives, particularly in a rapidly changing world. In this context, how careers are enacted has become increasingly varied, requiring new conceptual tools to study the transitions of learners and workers. This paper uses theoretical constructs from the literature on boundaryless career ...

  13. Transitioning to resilience and sustainability in urban communities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Collier, M.J.; Nedović-Budić, Z.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Connop, S.; Foley, D.; Foley, K.; Newport, D.; McQuaid, S.; Slaey, A.; Verburg, P.H.

    2013-01-01

    Adapting to the challenges of rapid urban growth and societal change will require mechanisms for efficient transitioning to an embedded resilience. This has become central to the exploration of methods for achieving truly sustainable urban growth. However, while transitioning and resilience are

  14. Space Storm as a Dynamical Phase Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanliss, J. A.

    2006-12-01

    Fluctuations of the DST index were analyzed for several magnetic storms preceded by more than a week of extremely quiet conditions to establish that there is a rapid and unidirectional change in the Hurst scaling exponent at the time of storm onset. That is, the transition is accompanied by the specific signature of a rapid unidirectional change in the temporal fractal scaling of fluctuations in DST, signaling the formation of a new dynamical phase (or mode) which is considerably more organized than the background state. We compare these results to a model of multifractional Brownian motion and suggest that the relatively sudden change from a less correlated to a more correlated pattern of multiscale fluctuations at storm onset can be characterized in terms of nonequilibrium dynamical phase transitions. Initial results show that a dynamical transition in solar wind VBs is correlated with the storm onset for intense storms, suggesting that the transition observed in DST is of external solar wind origin, rather than internal magnetospheric origin. On the other hand, some results show a dynamical transition in solar wind scaling exponents not matched in DST. As well, we also present results for small storms where there is a strong dynamical transition in DST without a similar changes in the VBs scaling statistics. The results for small storms seem to reduce the importance of the solar wind fluctuations but the evidence for the intense storms seems to point to the solar wind as being responsible for providing the scale free properties in the DST fluctuations.

  15. MEAT GOAT DEMOGRAPHICS AND NICHE MARKETING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Fisher

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Six focus groups were conducted with each having ten people who attend different Islamic Centers in Ohio. The objective of the focus groups was to understand Halal meat purchase patterns and consumption patterns of the Moslem population with special attention to goat. The Ohio State University Extension personnel are utilizing these results to work with meat goat producers to understand and meet the requirements of the Halal meat market.  Participants discussed the Zabiha approach to slaughtering animals as the most merciful by causing the least pain. Many participants noted they had no way of knowing where the animal  came from and this held tremendous concerns relative to the feeding of animal by-products, use of hormones, and adulteration with pork. These trust concerns led to decisions about where to purchase their meat with 72% purchasing from a Moslem owned retail store. Only 13% purchased from a large grocery and 8% direct from a farmer.   Participants indicated their consumption patterns according to weekly, seasonal, and holiday use in addition to variations according to their personal geographic origin. The average meat purchase was 23 pounds with an average occurrence of 12.5 times per annum.  Purchasing trends indicated that 78% prefer lean over marbled cuts. Nearly 86% prefer fresh over frozen goat meat and nearly a third responded that they would pay more for fresh. Intact males were preferred by 42% of the respondents. Preferences for meat goat cuts were: Leg (71%, Chops (42%, Shoulder (24%, Breast (7%. Nearly a third indicated they also want the kidneys, heart, or head. Demographic shifts in the United States indicate that there are almost 53 million people who have a preference for goat meat. There are 2.4 million goats in the US according to the 2007 Agricultural Statistics. Based on consumption trends of this study, goat demand exceeds inventory by 160%. Meat goat consumer trends are changing regarding

  16. A Study of the Demographics of Web-Based Health-Related Social Media Users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadah, Shouq A; Shahbazi, Moloud; Wiley, Matthew T; Hristidis, Vagelis

    2015-08-06

    The rapid spread of Web-based social media in recent years has impacted how patients share health-related information. However, little work has studied the demographics of these users. Our aim was to study the demographics of users who participate in health-related Web-based social outlets to identify possible links to health care disparities. We analyze and compare three different types of health-related social outlets: (1) general Web-based social networks, Twitter and Google+, (2) drug review websites, and (3) health Web forums. We focus on the following demographic attributes: age, gender, ethnicity, location, and writing level. We build and evaluate domain-specific classifiers to infer missing data where possible. The estimated demographic statistics are compared against various baselines, such as Internet and social networks usage of the population. We found that (1) drug review websites and health Web forums are dominated by female users, (2) the participants of health-related social outlets are generally older with the exception of the 65+ years bracket, (3) blacks are underrepresented in health-related social networks, (4) users in areas with better access to health care participate more in Web-based health-related social outlets, and (5) the writing level of users in health-related social outlets is significantly lower than the reading level of the population. We identified interesting and actionable disparities in the participation of various demographic groups to various types of health-related social outlets. These disparities are significantly distinct from the disparities in Internet usage or general social outlets participation.

  17. Profiles of academic, government, and private sector demographers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kintner, H J; Swanson, D A

    1987-07-01

    Demographers traditionally have been employed in academic settings, but in the past 10 years, greater numbers have moved into government and the private sector. This change in employment patterns has sparked interest in the comparative working conditions, professional activities, and sociodemographic characteristics of demographers employed in academic, government and private sector settings. A 1986 survey by the Population Association of America (yield: 288 responses) has found that the typical academic demographer is a male, age 43, with a Ph.D. in sociology and a median salary of $39,825. The typical government demographer is a male, age 43, with a terminal degree in sociology and a median salary of $40,000. The private sector demographer is more likely to be both female and younger than either academic or government demographers. Over half have a Ph.D. while 30% report a terminal M.A. More than 50% also have terminal degrees in sociology. Among all 3 types of employment, those in the private sector have the highest median 1985 salary from their primary employment, $43,500. This is substantially higher than medians for academic and government demographers; however, very few private sector demographers reported secondary employment of a demographic nature for pay in 1985. The top 10 areas in which to obtain training are generally within the capability of existing demographic programs, which tend to be located in or associated with sociology departments. For many programs, however, adequate training in applied demography will result only with changes in emphasis; for example, by providing an entire course on population forecasting instead of just a 3-day module within a general demographic methods course.

  18. Dynamics of growth and weight transitions in a pediatric cohort from India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudhakar Abish

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is paucity of information regarding time trends of weight status in children from rapidly developing economies like India. The aim of the study was to analyse the dynamics of growth and weight transitions in a cohort of school children from India. Methods A population of 25 228 children was selected using stratified random sampling method from schools in a contiguous area in Ernakulam District, Kerala, India. Weight and height were measured at two time points, one in 2003-04 and another in 2005-06. The paired data of 12 129 children aged 5-16 years were analysed for the study. Results The mean interval between the two surveys was 2.02 ± 0.32 years. The percentage of underweight, normal weight, overweight and obese children in the year 2003-04 were 38.4%, 56.6%, 3.7%, and 1.3% respectively. The corresponding figures in year 2005-06 were 29.9%, 63.6%, 4.8% and 1.7% respectively. Among the underweight children, 34.8% migrated to normal weight status and 0.1% migrated to overweight status. Conversion of underweight to normal weight predominated in urban area and girls. Among the normal weight children, 8.6% migrated to underweight, 4.1% migrated to overweight and 0.4% migrated to obesity. Conversion of normal weight to overweight status predominated in urban area, private schools and boys. Conversion of normal weight to underweight predominated in rural area, government schools and boys. Among the overweight children, 26.7% migrated to normal weight status, 16.4% became obese and 56.9% retained their overweight status. Of the obese children, 6.2% improved to normal weight status, 25.3% improved to overweight status and 68.5% remained as obese in 2005-06. There was significant difference in trends between socio demographic subgroups regarding conversion of underweight status to normal weight as well as normal weight status to overweight. Conclusion The study population is experiencing rapid growth and nutritional

  19. Gas turbine combustor transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coslow, Billy Joe; Whidden, Graydon Lane

    1999-01-01

    A method of converting a steam cooled transition to an air cooled transition in a gas turbine having a compressor in fluid communication with a combustor, a turbine section in fluid communication with the combustor, the transition disposed in a combustor shell and having a cooling circuit connecting a steam outlet and a steam inlet and wherein hot gas flows from the combustor through the transition and to the turbine section, includes forming an air outlet in the transition in fluid communication with the cooling circuit and providing for an air inlet in the transition in fluid communication with the cooling circuit.

  20. Health & Demographic Surveillance System Profile: The Rufiji Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Rufiji HDSS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mrema, Sigilbert; Kante, Almamy M; Levira, Francis; Mono, Amaniel; Irema, Kahema; de Savigny, Don; Masanja, Honorati

    2015-04-01

    The Rufiji Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) was established in October 1998 to evaluate the impact on burden of disease of health system reforms based on locally generated data, prioritization, resource allocation and planning for essential health interventions. The Rufiji HDSS collects detailed information on health and survival and provides a framework for population-based health research of relevance to local and national health priorities.In December 2012 the population under surveillance was about 105,503 people, residing in 19,315 households. Monitoring of households and members within households is undertaken in regular 6-month cycles known as 'rounds'. Self reported information is collected on demographic, household, socioeconomic and geographical characteristics. Verbal autopsy is conducted using standardized questionnaires, to determine probable causes of death. In conjunction with core HDSS activities, the ongoing studies in Rufiji HDSS focus on maternal and new-born health, evaluation of safety of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) exposure in early pregnancy and the clinical safety of a fixed dose of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHA-PQP) in the community. Findings of studies conducted in Rufiji HDSS can be accessed at www.ihi.or.tz/IHI-Digital-Library. © The Author 2015; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  1. Health & demographic surveillance system profile: the Nahuche Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Northern Nigeria (Nahuche HDSS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alabi, Olatunji; Doctor, Henry V; Jumare, Abdulazeez; Sahabi, Nasiru; Abdulwahab, Ahmad; Findley, Sally E; Abubakar, Sani D

    2014-12-01

    The Nahuche Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) study site, established in 2009 with 137 823 individuals is located in Zamfara State, north western Nigeria. North-West Nigeria is a region with one of the worst maternal and child health indicators in Nigeria. For example, the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey estimated an under-five mortality rate of 185 deaths per 1000 live births for the north-west geo-political zone compared with a national average of 128 deaths per 1000 live births. The site comprises over 100 villages under the leadership of six district heads. Virtually all the residents of the catchment population are Hausa by ethnicity. After a baseline census in 2010, regular update rounds of data collection are conducted every 6 months. Data collection on births, deaths, migration events, pregnancies, marriages and marriage termination events are routinely conducted. Verbal autopsy (VA) data are collected on all deaths reported during routine data collection. Annual update data on antenatal care and household characteristics are also collected. Opportunities for collaborations are available at Nahuche HDSS. The Director of Nahuche HDSS, M.O. Oche at [ochedr@hotmail.com] is the contact person for all forms of collaboration. © The Author 2014; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  2. Nutrition transition and food sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belahsen, Rekia

    2014-08-01

    The aim of the present paper is to review nutrition transition (NT) ongoing in low and middle income countries and the associated dietary changes. NT is accompanied by demographic and epidemiological transition associated with economic development and urbanisation. In these countries, while the problems of hunger and undernourishment persist, there is an escalation of diet-related non-communicable diseases; making them face both problems of malnutrition, under and overnutrition. Indeed, in addition to protein energy malnutrition underweight and micronutrient deficiencies affect a high proportion of children and women. Conversely, changes in dietary habits and physical activity patterns have led to emergence of chronic diseases such as obesity, diabetes, hypertension, stroke, hyperlipidaemia, CHD and cancer. One possible explanation of weight gain and its associated health consequences is the trend of the consumption of already prepared meals and the restaurants that are in continuous development leading to high consumption of foods rich in sugar and fat. The health problems associated with NT have not spared populations in the Mediterranean area where the type of diet is reported to be healthy and to protect against cardiovascular risks. This is seen in North Africa that belongs also to the Mediterranean basin, where the nutritional situation raises the problem of traditional foods sustainability. Accurate nutritional policy and education are needed to redress the effects of malnutrition related to NT on health.

  3. Progression of the epidemiological transition in a rural South African setting: findings from population surveillance in Agincourt, 1993–2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chodziwadziwa W. Kabudula

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Virtually all low- and middle-income countries are undergoing an epidemiological transition whose progression is more varied than experienced in high-income countries. Observed changes in mortality and disease patterns reveal that the transition in most low- and middle-income countries is characterized by reversals, partial changes and the simultaneous occurrence of different types of diseases of varying magnitude. Localized characterization of this shifting burden, frequently lacking, is essential to guide decentralised health and social systems on the effective targeting of limited resources. Based on a rigorous compilation of mortality data over two decades, this paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the epidemiological transition in a rural South African population. Methods We estimate overall and cause-specific hazards of death as functions of sex, age and time period from mortality data from the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System and conduct statistical tests of changes and differentials to assess the progression of the epidemiological transition over the period 1993–2013. Results From the early 1990s until 2007 the population experienced a reversal in its epidemiological transition, driven mostly by increased HIV/AIDS and TB related mortality. In recent years, the transition is following a positive trajectory as a result of declining HIV/AIDS and TB related mortality. However, in most age groups the cause of death distribution is yet to reach the levels it occupied in the early 1990s. The transition is also characterized by persistent gender differences with more rapid positive progression in females than males. Conclusions This typical rural South African population is experiencing a protracted epidemiological transition. The intersection and interaction of HIV/AIDS and antiretroviral treatment, non-communicable disease risk factors and complex social and behavioral changes will impact

  4. The Impact Of Demographic Factors On Organisational Commitment ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Study Investigated the Impact of demographic factors on organization commitment among workers in selected work organizations in Lagos State of Nigeria. This was for the purpose of ascertaining the relevance of demographic factors on workers' commitment to organizations goal achievement in Nigeria. The ex-post ...

  5. Job Satisfaction As A Function Of Demographic Variables: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The purpose of this descriptive-correlational study is to determine the relationship between demographic characteristics of clergy and their overall level of job satisfaction. The demographic factors investigated are gender, age, education, length of service, salary and district size. A slightly modified version of the ...

  6. Optimal demographic information for policy development in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    After ten years of a democratic education system in South Africa , the demographic realities should be better understood in educational planning. The fragmented nature of the predemocratic education system has led to undesirable perceptions about quality education and has subsequently influenced the demographic ...

  7. Association of testosterone levels with socio-demographic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-06-02

    Jun 2, 2014 ... a sample of Ugandan men with socio-demographic characteristics, and compare the testosterone levels of Ugandan men ... Conclusion: Testosterone levels were lower in association with several socio-demographic characteristics including ..... Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism; 2000, 88.

  8. Links among motivation, socio-demographic characteristics and low ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Links among motivation, socio-demographic characteristics and low physical activity level among a group of Nigerian patients with type 2 diabetes. ... with more of the socio-demographic characteristics than motivational factors. Keywords: Type 2 diabetes; Physical activity; Motivation; Psychological factors; Physical exercise ...

  9. Strategic Responses to Demographic Changes: Students, Faculty, and Patrons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Robert A.

    Demographic changes affecting college students, faculty, and patrons and responses to the changes are considered. For each of the three groups, attention is directed to factors influencing change within and outside the campus, options available to the campus, and strategies for responding to the demographic changes. To recruit new full-time…

  10. Demographic Differentials of Forest based Enterprises in Nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Oyebade Bukola

    ABSTRACT. This paper analyses the differential demographic variables that influence the profitability potential of some forest based enterprises in south western Nigeria, using empirical regression models. Best fit criteria techniques were employed to determine the best demographic variables models and their relationships ...

  11. Demographic determinants of teachers' use of scaffolding strategies ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Teachers possess personal attributes also known as demographic variables that make them capable of providing scaffolded instruction in reading for pupils with reading disabilities. This study investigated the influence of four demographic variables namely: teachers' gender, educational qualification, years of teaching ...

  12. Families in Demographic Perspective: Implications for Family Counseling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, James H.

    1993-01-01

    Focuses on demographic changes in families and implications for counseling couples and families. Contends that several important demographic changes in families have major impacts on kinds of clients that present for counseling and therapy. Looks at children born to unmarried women, separation and divorce, single-parent families, and remarriage…

  13. Phylogeography, genetic diversity and demographic history of the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    FATAH ZAREI

    rather than linguistic similarity. The results of demographic analyses, in agreement with .... Informed consent of all the donors and information about their ethnic background were obtained. Only native peo- ..... mtDNA diversity gave a highly better fit than what linguistic classification did. Demographic history. Being strongly ...

  14. [The spatial structure of demographic behavior in Eastern Europe].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decroly, J

    1991-01-01

    The author uses data from the recently published "Atlas de la population europeenne" to identify the unique demographic features of the countries of Eastern Europe. Specifically, he examines the extent to which political factors have affected demographic indicators such as fertility, mortality, migration, and spatial distribution in this region.

  15. Selected socio-demographic factors affecting involvement of farmers ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Selected socio-demographic factors affecting involvement of farmers in part-time farming in Emohua, Rivers State. DO Onu. Abstract. The study investigates selected socio-demographic factors affecting involvement of farmers in part-time farming in Emohua, Rivers State. Structured questionnaire was administered to 87 ...

  16. Developing a Global Mindset: Integrating Demographics, Sustainability, Technology, and Globalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggarwal, Raj

    2011-01-01

    Business schools face a number of challenges in responding to the business influences of demographics, sustainability, and technology--all three of which are also the fundamental driving forces for globalization. Demographic forces are creating global imbalances in worker populations and in government finances; the world economy faces…

  17. Christian Schools and Demographic Change: Two Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huyser, Mackenzi; Boerman-Cornell, Bill; DeBoer, Kendra

    2011-01-01

    This article explores how two Christian school systems have responded to neighborhood demographic change. Researchers conducted interviews, attended meetings, and reviewed documents to explore two case studies--one of a school struggling to redefine its identity, purpose, and vision in response to demographic change, and another school that has…

  18. Leaks in the pipeline: separating demographic inertia from ongoing gender differences in academia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Allison K; Stanton, Daniel E

    2012-09-22

    Identification of the causes underlying the under-representation of women and minorities in academia is a source of ongoing concern and controversy. This is a critical issue in ensuring the openness and diversity of academia; yet differences in personal experiences and interpretations have mired it in controversy. We construct a simple model of the academic career that can be used to identify general trends, and separate the demographic effects of historical differences from ongoing biological or cultural gender differences. We apply the model to data on academics collected by the National Science Foundation (USA) over the past three decades, across all of science and engineering, and within six disciplines (agricultural and biological sciences, engineering, mathematics and computer sciences, physical sciences, psychology, and social sciences). We show that the hiring and retention of women in academia have been affected by both demographic inertia and gender differences, but that the relative influence of gender differences appears to be dwindling for most disciplines and career transitions. Our model enables us to identify the two key non-structural bottlenecks restricting female participation in academia: choice of undergraduate major and application to faculty positions. These transitions are those in greatest need of detailed study and policy development.

  19. TEENAGE PREGNANCY: DEMOGRAPHICS, MATERNAL AND FOETAL OUTCOME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radhika Gollapudi

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Pregnancy though is a physiological event in a woman’s life, it has its own associated complications. In teenage pregnancies, the physical and emotional state of stress coupled with biological immaturity leads to adverse effect both on the health of the mother and the foetus. METHODS This study is a clinical prospective study analysing the demographics, maternal health issues and the foetal outcome in teenage pregnancies. The study was conducted over a period of one year at a government tertiary care center. Pregnant women in the age group of 13-19 years who delivered during the study period were included in the study group. All pregnant women over 20 years of age who delivered during the same period were taken as control group. Women who had medical disorders complicating pregnancy were excluded from the study. Anaemia, pregnancy induced hypertension, antepartum haemorrhage and mode of delivery were the maternal outcomes that were noted. Intrauterine growth retardation, prematurity, low birth weight, APGAR score were analysed with respect to the foetus. RESULTS In this study, the total number of pregnant women who delivered during the study period were 4782, 536 were teenage mothers, constituting 11.2% of the total pregnancies. Of the 536 teenage mothers, 69.78% belonged to the rural areas and 71.64% were found to have inadequate antenatal visits to the hospital. The mean age of teenage pregnancy was 17.18 years. Incidence of anaemia was 44.2% in comparison, the control group had an incidence of 33.02%. In our study, incidence of Pregnancy induced hypertension was 18.64% in teenage mothers and 10.6% in non-teenage mothers. The incidence of Antepartum Haemorrhage in our study was 8.94% in teenage mothers. Incidence of lower segment caesarean section was 22.76% in the teenage group as compared to 14.57% in the non-teenage group. In our study, 13.05% of teenage mothers had preterm deliveries as compared to 6.40% of non-teenage mothers

  20. Rapid small lot manufacturing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrigan, R.W.

    1998-05-09

    The direct connection of information, captured in forms such as CAD databases, to the factory floor is enabling a revolution in manufacturing. Rapid response to very dynamic market conditions is becoming the norm rather than the exception. In order to provide economical rapid fabrication of small numbers of variable products, one must design with manufacturing constraints in mind. In addition, flexible manufacturing systems must be programmed automatically to reduce the time for product change over in the factory and eliminate human errors. Sensor based machine control is needed to adapt idealized, model based machine programs to uncontrolled variables such as the condition of raw materials and fabrication tolerances.

  1. Nutrition transition in South Asia: the emergence of non-communicable chronic diseases [version 2; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghose Bishwajit

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Overview: South Asian countries have experienced a remarkable economic growth during last two decades along with subsequent transformation in social, economic and food systems. Rising disposable income levels continue to drive the nutrition transition characterized by a shift from a traditional high-carbohydrate, low-fat diets towards diets with a lower carbohydrate and higher proportion of saturated fat, sugar and salt. Steered by various transitions in demographic, economic and nutritional terms, South Asian population are experiencing a rapidly changing disease profile. While the healthcare systems have long been striving to disentangle from the vicious cycle of poverty and undernutrition, South Asian countries are now confronted with an emerging epidemic of obesity and a constellation of other non-communicable diseases (NCDs. This dual burden is bringing about a serious health and economic conundrum and is generating enormous pressure on the already overstretched healthcare system of South Asian countries.   Objectives: The Nutrition transition has been a very popular topic in the field of human nutrition during last few decades and many countries and broad geographic regions have been studied. However there is no review on this topic in the context of South Asia  as yet. The main purpose of this review is to highlight the factors accounting for the onset of nutrition transition and its subsequent impact on epidemiological transition in five major South Asian countries including Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Special emphasis was given on India and Bangladesh as they together account for 94% of the regional population and about half world’s malnourished population. Methods: This study is literature based. Main data sources were published research articles obtained through an electronic medical databases search.

  2. Rapid Cycling and Its Treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Announcements Public Service Announcements Partnering with DBSA Rapid Cycling and its Treatment What is bipolar disorder? Bipolar ... to Depression and Manic Depression . What is rapid cycling? Rapid cycling is defined as four or more ...

  3. Conceptualizing Transitions to Adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyn, Johanna

    2014-01-01

    This chapter provides an overview of theories of the transition to young adulthood. It sets out the argument for conceptual renewal and discusses some implications of new patterns of transition for adult education.

  4. Public Transit Stations

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — fixed rail transit stations within the Continental United States, Alaska, Hawaii, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. The modes of transit that are serviced...

  5. Biodiesel Mass Transit Demonstration

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    The Biodiesel Mass Transit Demonstration report is intended for mass transit decision makers and fleet managers considering biodiesel use. This is the final report for the demonstration project implemented by the National Biodiesel Board under a gran...

  6. Cosmological phase transitions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolb, E.W. [Fermi National Accelerator Lab., Batavia, IL (United States)]|[Chicago Univ., IL (United States)

    1993-10-01

    If modern ideas about the role of spontaneous symmetry breaking in fundamental physics are correct, then the Universe should have undergone a series of phase transitions early in its history. The study of cosmological phase transitions has become an important aspect of early-Universe cosmology. In this lecture I review some very recent work on three aspects of phase transitions: the electroweak transition, texture, and axions.

  7. Quantum phase transitions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sachdev, S. [Yale University, New Haven, CT (United States)

    1999-04-01

    Phase transitions are normally associated with changes of temperature but a new type of transition - caused by quantum fluctuations near absolute zero - is possible, and can tell us more about the properties of a wide range of systems in condensed-matter physics. Nature abounds with phase transitions. The boiling and freezing of water are everyday examples of phase transitions, as are more exotic processes such as superconductivity and superfluidity. The universe itself is thought to have passed through several phase transitions as the high-temperature plasma formed by the big bang cooled to form the world as we know it today. Phase transitions are traditionally classified as first or second order. In first-order transitions the two phases co-exist at the transition temperature - e.g. ice and water at 0 deg., or water and steam at 100 deg. In second-order transitions the two phases do not co-exist. In the last decade, attention has focused on phase transitions that are qualitatively different from the examples noted above: these are quantum phase transitions and they occur only at the absolute zero of temperature. The transition takes place atthe ''quantum critical'' value of some other parameter such as pressure, composition or magnetic field strength. A quantum phase transition takes place when co-operative ordering of the system disappears, but this loss of order is driven solely by the quantum fluctuations demanded by Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. The physical properties of these quantum fluctuations are quite distinct from those of the thermal fluctuations responsible for traditional, finite-temperature phase transitions. In particular, the quantum system is described by a complex-valued wavefunction, and the dynamics of its phase near the quantum critical point requires novel theories that have no analogue in the traditional framework of phase transitions. In this article the author describes the history of quantum phase

  8. Rapid manufacturing for microfluidics

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Land, K

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available . Microfluidics is at the forefront of developing solutions for drug discovery, diagnostics (from glucose tests to malaria and TB testing) and environmental diagnostics (E-coli monitoring of drinking water). In order to quickly implement new designs, a rapid...

  9. Rapid Prototyping in PVS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz, Cesar A.; Butler, Ricky (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    PVSio is a conservative extension to the PVS prelude library that provides basic input/output capabilities to the PVS ground evaluator. It supports rapid prototyping in PVS by enhancing the specification language with built-in constructs for string manipulation, floating point arithmetic, and input/output operations.

  10. Rapid Prototyping Reconsidered

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desrosier, James

    2011-01-01

    Continuing educators need additional strategies for developing new programming that can both reduce the time to market and lower the cost of development. Rapid prototyping, a time-compression technique adapted from the high technology industry, represents one such strategy that merits renewed evaluation. Although in higher education rapid…

  11. Rapid Sediment Characterization Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-09-01

    Method Applicability DQO Data Quality Objective ELISA Enzyme-linked Immunosorbent Assay EIA Enzyme Immunoassay ERA Ecological Risk Assessment...planning has considered the pros and cons of each option in the context of project deci- sion goals (Data Quality Objective [ DQO ] process...that blend with one another in transition zones: open-water aquatic, intertidal wetland , and bay mudflats. Many species of mobile marine animals

  12. Modeling for transition management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chappin, E.J.L.; Dijkema, G.P.J.

    2015-01-01

    A framework for the modeling and simulation of transitions is presented. A transition, “substantial change in the state of a socio-technical system”, typically unfolds over a long timespan. We therefore suggest to use simulation to inform transition managers on the effect of their decisions.

  13. Origins of evolutionary transitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, Ellen

    2014-04-01

    An 'evolutionary transition in individuality' or 'major transition' is a transformation in the hierarchical level at which natural selection operates on a population. In this article I give an abstract (i.e. level-neutral and substrate-neutral) articulation of the transition process in order to precisely understand how such processes can happen, especially how they can get started.

  14. Modeling for Transition Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chappin, Emile J L; Dijkema, Gerard P.J.

    2015-01-01

    A framework for the modeling and simulation of transitions is presented. A transition, “substantial change in the state of a socio-technical system”, typically unfolds over a long timespan. We therefore suggest to use simulation to inform transition managers on the effect of their decisions.

  15. Transition to Adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... a lot of ground to cover! But it’s essential ground, if the student’s transition to the adult ... of transition planning? Here’s a closer look at writing transition-related IEP goals. Students Get Involved ! Very ...

  16. Origins of evolutionary transitions

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    An `evolutionary transition in individuality' or `major transition' is a transformation in the hierarchical level at which natural selection operates on a population. In this article I give an abstract (i.e. level-neutral and substrate-neutral) articulation of the transition process in order to precisely understand how such processes can ...

  17. A social and demographic study of Tibetan refugees in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatia, Shushum; Dranyi, Tsegyal; Rowley, Derrick

    2002-02-01

    The social and demographic characteristics of approximately 65,000 Tibetan refugees in India were determined from data collected 1994-1996. Approximately 55,000 refugees were living in 37 settlements widely distributed around India. The remaining 10,000 refugees were monks living in monasteries associated with some of the settlements, mostly in the south of India. In the settlements, a community-based surveillance system was established and data were collected by trained community health workers in house to house visits. In the monasteries, data were collected by the community health workers in monthly interviews with a designated liaison monk at each monastery. These data indicated little immigration of new civilian refugees in the past 10 years into the settlements but a steady influx of new monks into the monasteries. The age distribution in the settlements showed a prominent mode in the 15-25 year age range, a declining birth rate, and an increasing proportion of elderly. In general, refugees born in India were educated through secondary school, while refugees born in Tibet were often illiterate. The principle occupations were education involving 27% (including students), farming, 16%. and sweater selling, 6.5%; another 6.5% were too young or too old for employment, and only 2.4% were unemployed. The overall crude birth rate was determined to be relatively low at 16.8/1000. although this may underestimate the true figure. Infant mortality varied from 20 to 35/1000 live births in the different regions. Child vaccination programs cover less than 50% of the population. The burden of illness in this society was mainly characterized by diarrhoea. skin infections, respiratory infections, fevers, and, among the elderly. joint pains and cardiovascular problems. Although calculated death rates were unrealistically low, due to under-reporting, causes of death, derived from "verbal autopsies", were mainly cancer, tuberculosis, accidents, cirrhosis and heart disease in

  18. Spatial extent in demographic research - approach and problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knežević Aleksandar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the starting methodological problems in demographic research is the definition of spatial extent, which mostly doesn’t correspond to spatial extent already defined by different levels of administrative-territorial unitsthat are used for distribution of usable statistical data. That’s why determining the spatial extent of a demographic research is closely tied with administrative-territorial division of the territory that is being researched, wherein the fact that differentiation of demographic phenomena and processes cannot be the only basis of setting the principles of regionalization must be strictly acknowledged. This problem is particularly common in historical demographic analyses of geographically determined wholes, which are in administratively-territorial sense represented by one or more smaller territorial units, with their borders changing through the history, which directly affects comparability of the statistical data, and makes it considerably more difficult to track demographic change through longer time intervals. The result of these efforts is usually a solution based on a compromise which enables us to examine the dynamics of population change with little deviation from already defined borders of regional geographic wholes. For that reason in this paper the problem of defining spatial extent in demographic research is examined trough several different approaches in case of Eastern Serbia, as a geographically determined region, a historic area, a spatially functioning whole and as a statistical unit for demographic research, with no judgment calls in regard to any of the regionalization principles. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III 47006

  19. Demographic Responses To Climate Manipulations Across a Species Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldfather, M. F.

    2016-12-01

    Species biogeographic responses to climate change will occur through the local extinction and establishment of populations. The overall performance of populations across a species range is shaped by the idiosyncratic sensitivities of demographic rates to the changing climate conditions. Heterogeneous topography partially decouples temperature and soil moisture presenting an opportunity to disentangle demographic sensitivity to multiple local climate variables and refine range shift predictions in response to complex climate change. Since 2013, I have monitored 16 populations of a long-lived alpine plant, Ivesia lycopodioides var. scandularis (Rosaceae) across the entirety of its altitudinal range in the arid White Mountains, CA (3350 - 4420m). I quantified microclimatic soil moisture and temperature, and the demographic rates of over 4,000 individuals. Demographic rates exhibited sensitivity to accumulated degree-days (ex. reproduction), soil volumetric water content (ex. germination), or the interaction between these climate variables (ex. survival). These observations motivated an experimental test of the relationship between demography and local climate with manipulations of increased summertime temperature and precipitation in nine populations. All demographic rates were sensitive to the climate manipulations and the magnitude of the demographic response depended on the population's location within the range. However, the modeled population growth rate was only minimally affected by the manipulations in most populations. The inverse responses of many of the demographic rates may allow populations to demographically buffer against the climate manipulations. However, in one low elevation edge population the negative effect of heating on survival overwhelmed the positive effect on germination, indicating that the capacity of populations to demographically buffer may have a limit.

  20. Rapid quenching effects in PVC films

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, H. D.; Mandell, J. F.; Mcgarry, F. J.

    1981-01-01

    Using a specially constructed microbalance for hydrostatic weighing, density changes in PVC thin films (with no additives, 30-100 micrometers thick), due to rapid quenching (approximately 300 C/sec) through the glass transition temperature, have been observed. The more severe the quench, the greater is the free volume content. Isobaric volume recovery of PVC has also been studied by volume dilatometry. Both show aging of relaxing molecular rearrangements takes place as a linear function of logarithmic aging time at room temperature. Distribution of retardation times and Primak's distributed activation energy spectra have been applied to the volume recovery data. The concomitant changes in mechanical properties of PVC after quenching have been monitored by tensile creep and stress-strain to failure. All reflect the presence of excess free volume content, due to rapid quenching.

  1. Transition Theory – Sustainable Transition of Socio-Technical Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søndergård, Bent; Holm, Jesper; Stauning, Inger

    2015-01-01

    Theories of transition management, transition studies and social practise theory Applied to studies of hosuing and construction......Theories of transition management, transition studies and social practise theory Applied to studies of hosuing and construction...

  2. Prevalence of obesity, central obesity, and associated socio-demographic variables in Syrian women using different anthropometric indicators

    OpenAIRE

    Bakir M Adel; Hammad Kholoud; Mohammad Loreen

    2017-01-01

    The prevalence of overweight and obesity is increasing globally in both developing and developed countries, especially, those with rapid cultural and social changes. The aims of current study were twofold: (a) to examine, for the first time in Syria, the prevalence of overweight, obesity and central obesity in Syrian women and obesity-related socio-demographic determinants, and (b) to establish a base line data about obesity related determinants needed to develop appropriate treatment and pre...

  3. "In Transition": Choice and the Children of New Zealand's Economic Reforms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, Jane; Nairn, Karen

    2006-01-01

    New Zealand's rapid emergence as a late-modern, neo-liberal society following 1984 led to a transformation in the institutional infrastructure for youth transitions from school to post-school worlds. Our research focuses on the ways that young people born after 1984 craft identities in transition. We investigate their perspectives on transition in…

  4. Ethno-Demographic Process in the Ukrainian Danube

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vyacheslav Todorov

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the features of modern geo-demographic processes in the Ukrainian Danube and the effects on them of ethnic factor. Traditionally, multi-ethnic composition of the population is causes the most favorable in the Odessa region geo-demographic processes. After 1994 and in ranges of compact settlement of ethno-national groups starts watching depopulation. Modern geo-demographic processes define recovery reality sex and age structure of the population or in the region, there will be a further intensification of depopulation processes.

  5. University Science and Mathematics Education in Transition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovsmose, Ole; Valero, Paola; Christensen, Ole Ravn

    More than ever, our time is characterized by rapid changes in the organization and the production of knowledge. This movement is deeply rooted in the evolution of the scientific endeavor, as well as in the transformation of the political, economic and cultural organization of society It is also...... of educational, cultural, administrative and ideological views and practices that permeate and constitute science and mathematics education in universities today. University Science and Mathematics Education in Transition contributes to an understanding of the multiple aspects and dimensions of the transition...

  6. Transition path time distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laleman, M.; Carlon, E.; Orland, H.

    2017-12-01

    Biomolecular folding, at least in simple systems, can be described as a two state transition in a free energy landscape with two deep wells separated by a high barrier. Transition paths are the short part of the trajectories that cross the barrier. Average transition path times and, recently, their full probability distribution have been measured for several biomolecular systems, e.g., in the folding of nucleic acids or proteins. Motivated by these experiments, we have calculated the full transition path time distribution for a single stochastic particle crossing a parabolic barrier, including inertial terms which were neglected in previous studies. These terms influence the short time scale dynamics of a stochastic system and can be of experimental relevance in view of the short duration of transition paths. We derive the full transition path time distribution as well as the average transition path times and discuss the similarities and differences with the high friction limit.

  7. Rapid manufacturing facilitated customisation

    OpenAIRE

    Tuck, Christopher John; Hague, Richard; Ruffo, Massimiliano; Ransley, Michelle; Adams, Paul Russell

    2008-01-01

    Abstract This paper describes the production of body-fitting customised seat profiles utilising the following digital methods: three dimensional laser scanning, reverse engineering and Rapid Manufacturing (RM). The seat profiles have been manufactured in order to influence the comfort characteristics of an existing ejector seat manufactured by Martin Baker Aircraft Ltd. The seat, known as Navy Aircrew Common Ejection Seat (NACES), was originally designed with a generic profile. ...

  8. Rapid Detection of Pathogens

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David Perlin

    2005-08-14

    Pathogen identification is a crucial first defense against bioterrorism. A major emphasis of our national biodefense strategy is to establish fast, accurate and sensitive assays for diagnosis of infectious diseases agents. Such assays will ensure early and appropriate treatment of infected patients. Rapid diagnostics can also support infection control measures, which monitor and limit the spread of infectious diseases agents. Many select agents are highly transmissible in the early stages of disease, and it is critical to identify infected patients and limit the risk to the remainder of the population and to stem potential panic in the general population. Nucleic acid-based molecular approaches for identification overcome many of the deficiencies associated with conventional culture methods by exploiting both large- and small-scale genomic differences between organisms. PCR-based amplification of highly conserved ribosomal RNA (rRNA) genes, intergenic sequences, and specific toxin genes is currently the most reliable approach for bacterial, fungal and many viral pathogenic agents. When combined with fluorescence-based oligonucleotide detection systems, this approach provides real-time, quantitative, high fidelity analysis capable of single nucleotide allelic discrimination (4). These probe systems offer rapid turn around time (<2 h) and are suitable for high throughput, automated multiplex operations that are critical for clinical diagnostic laboratories. In this pilot program, we have used molecular beacon technology invented at the Public health Research Institute to develop a new generation of molecular probes to rapidly detect important agents of infectious diseases. We have also developed protocols to rapidly extract nucleic acids from a variety of clinical specimen including and blood and tissue to for detection in the molecular assays. This work represented a cooperative research development program between the Kramer-Tyagi/Perlin labs on probe development

  9. China’s “One-child family” demographic policy - Analyzing the consequences of the measures taken to confine the demographic growth of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pascu, M.L.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The so called “one-child policy” has brought economic benefits in China for the three decades since it was enforced, but it has also brought a series of disadvantages with consequences in the near future: increase of the dependency ratio in China with the accentuation of the population ageing phenomenon and the occurrence of disparities in the sex ratio that will lead to special social problems. Some experts believe that the simplistic reasoning behind the “one-child policy” might be responsible for the next demographic crisis. On one hand, the number of Chinese citizens is still growing. On the other hand China faces a very rapid aging of the population.

  10. Space storm as a phase transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanliss, J. A.; Dobias, P.

    2007-04-01

    Fluctuations of the SYM-H index were analyzed for several space storms preceded by more than a week of extremely quiet conditions to establish that there was a rapid and unidirectional change in the Hurst scaling exponent at the time of storm onset. That is, the transition was accompanied by the specific signature of a rapid unidirectional change in the temporal fractal scaling of fluctuations in SYM-H, signaling the formation of a new dynamical phase (or mode) which was considerably more organized than the background state. We compare these results to a model of multifractional Brownian motion and suggest that the relatively sudden change from a less correlated to a more correlated pattern of multiscale fluctuations at storm onset can be characterized in terms of nonequilibrium dynamical phase transitions. The results show that a dynamical transition in solar wind VB is correlated with the storm onset for intense storms, suggesting that the dynamical transition observed in SYM-H is of external solar wind origin, rather than internal magnetospheric origin. However, some results showed a dynamical transition in solar wind scaling exponents not matched by similar transitions in SYM-H. In other instances, we observed some small storms where there was a strong dynamical transition in SYM-H without similar changes in the VB scaling statistics, suggesting that changes were due to internal magnetospheric processes. In summary, the results for intense storms points to the solar wind as being responsible for providing the scale free properties in the SYM-H fluctuations but the evidence for small storms clearly limit the importance of the solar wind fluctuations; their interaction is more complex than simple causality.

  11. Demographic factors and land-use planning in the small islands of Southern Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soliani, Lamberto; Rossi, Orazio

    1992-09-01

    Since the end of the 1970s, the southern European countries have shown an exceptional reduction in fertility rate. From the highest levels among the developed nations, these countries dropped beneath the substitution rate level: in Greece there is an average of about 1.5 children per woman, and Italy (starting three to four years ago), with 1.3 children per woman, is now the country with the lowest fecundity rate in the world. Land-use planning in southern European small islands therefore requires substantial revision. In the areas where western civilization began, which are highly populated and have a long history, cultural and ethnic aspects of tradition are fundamental to environmental management and to the defense of historical heritage. They also place a strong value on sustaining tourism, the most relevant economic activity, that allows them to survive and maintain a high welfare level. For some decades they have had populations with a marked presence of young people and high emigration rates, but now they are fast becoming dominated by the elderly and must prepare for a period of fast reduction in youth of the workforce, while the peripheral areas of Asia and Africa are entering a sudden demographic growth phase. The demographic structure has also been deeply altered both by previous migrations and by random variations, as usually happens in all small communities. Social services for younger and older people have had to be adapted rapidly, reorganizing high-school management, hospital and health-care structures, in-house assistance, and so on. There is a need to rethink the job market and favor the immigration of highly specialized workers, which is a necessity for technical evolution. Sustainable development is constrained nowadays not only by the scarcity of natural resources, but also by the quality and quantity of human resources. Proper policies for population and land-use planning are highly correlated factors; they have to be considered with respect

  12. [Mali: the offer of education disturbed by demographic variables].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tounkara, B

    1990-12-01

    Although educational reforms in 1962 have played a positive role in the socioeconomic and cultural development of Mali, the most recent analyses of the educational system have shown it to be in crisis for reasons both endogenous and exogenous. Huge class sizes, lack of teaching materials, and insufficient training of teachers have affected the quality of education. 80% of Mali's population is illiterate but the rate of school attendance is under 30%. Financial resources devoted to education have not grown as fast as population. The situation is made worse by structural adjustment programs of the past few years that have encouraged the government share of educational expenses to decline and the role of parents and the private sector to increase. The 1987 Demographic and Health Survey showed that Mali's rate of population growth is 2.7%/year. 45% of the population is under 15, amounting to some 3.5 million children. Great efforts are needed just to provide schools and teachers and to maintain the rate of school attendance at its current level of 27%, 1 of the lowest in the world. To attain the goal of 50% school attendance by the year 2000, the number of students beginning primary school should increase by 11.3% per year. But currently the number of students aged 6-11 is actually shrinking by almost 1% per year. At the level of the family, the expenses of school attendance are an important factor in nonattendance. The high annual costs constitute an insurmountable barrier for parents of large families. The loss of children's labor in rural areas is an added cost of schooling. School attendance in Mali is becoming a source and means of social inequality. The seasonal or permanent migration of a large part of the population has also been an obstacle to school attendance. the unavailability of mothers who teach during their 3 months of maternity leave and 2 hours daily break for breast feeding, in addition to absenteeism when their children are sick, is another effect

  13. Mapping populations at risk: improving spatial demographic data for infectious disease modeling and metric derivation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatem Andrew J

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The use of Global Positioning Systems (GPS and Geographical Information Systems (GIS in disease surveys and reporting is becoming increasingly routine, enabling a better understanding of spatial epidemiology and the improvement of surveillance and control strategies. In turn, the greater availability of spatially referenced epidemiological data is driving the rapid expansion of disease mapping and spatial modeling methods, which are becoming increasingly detailed and sophisticated, with rigorous handling of uncertainties. This expansion has, however, not been matched by advancements in the development of spatial datasets of human population distribution that accompany disease maps or spatial models. Where risks are heterogeneous across population groups or space or dependent on transmission between individuals, spatial data on human population distributions and demographic structures are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. The disease impact in terms of morbidity, mortality, and speed of spread varies substantially with demographic profiles, so that identifying the most exposed or affected populations becomes a key aspect of planning and targeting interventions. Subnational breakdowns of population counts by age and sex are routinely collected during national censuses and maintained in finer detail within microcensus data. Moreover, demographic and health surveys continue to collect representative and contemporary samples from clusters of communities in low-income countries where census data may be less detailed and not collected regularly. Together, these freely available datasets form a rich resource for quantifying and understanding the spatial variations in the sizes and distributions of those most at risk of disease in low income regions, yet at present, they remain unconnected data scattered across national statistical offices and websites. In this paper we discuss the deficiencies of existing

  14. Mapping populations at risk: improving spatial demographic data for infectious disease modeling and metric derivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    The use of Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) in disease surveys and reporting is becoming increasingly routine, enabling a better understanding of spatial epidemiology and the improvement of surveillance and control strategies. In turn, the greater availability of spatially referenced epidemiological data is driving the rapid expansion of disease mapping and spatial modeling methods, which are becoming increasingly detailed and sophisticated, with rigorous handling of uncertainties. This expansion has, however, not been matched by advancements in the development of spatial datasets of human population distribution that accompany disease maps or spatial models. Where risks are heterogeneous across population groups or space or dependent on transmission between individuals, spatial data on human population distributions and demographic structures are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. The disease impact in terms of morbidity, mortality, and speed of spread varies substantially with demographic profiles, so that identifying the most exposed or affected populations becomes a key aspect of planning and targeting interventions. Subnational breakdowns of population counts by age and sex are routinely collected during national censuses and maintained in finer detail within microcensus data. Moreover, demographic and health surveys continue to collect representative and contemporary samples from clusters of communities in low-income countries where census data may be less detailed and not collected regularly. Together, these freely available datasets form a rich resource for quantifying and understanding the spatial variations in the sizes and distributions of those most at risk of disease in low income regions, yet at present, they remain unconnected data scattered across national statistical offices and websites. In this paper we discuss the deficiencies of existing spatial population datasets

  15. Demographic history and population structure of Anopheles pseudopunctipennis in Argentina based on the mitochondrial COI gene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dantur Juri, María J; Moreno, Marta; Prado Izaguirre, Mónica J; Navarro, Juan C; Zaidenberg, Mario O; Almirón, Walter R; Claps, Guillermo L; Conn, Jan E

    2014-09-04

    Anopheles pseudopunctipennis is an important malaria vector in the Neotropical region and the only species involved in Plasmodium transmission in the Andean foothills. Its wide geographical distribution in America, high preference for biting humans and capacity to rest inside dwellings after feeding, are attributes contributing to its vector status. Previous reports have tried to elucidate its taxonomic status, distinguishing populations from North, Central and South America. In the present study we used a mitochondrial marker to examine the demographic history of An. pseudopunctipennis in northwestern Argentina. Twelve localities were selected across 550 km of the distribution of this species in Argentina, including two near the Bolivian border and several in South Tucumán, for sampling. A fragment of the cytochrome oxidase I (COI) gene was sequenced and haplotype relationships were analyzed by a statistical parsimony network and a Neighbor-Joining (NJ) tree. Genetic differentiation was estimated with FST. Historical demographic processes were evaluated using diversity measures, neutrality tests and mismatch distribution. Forty-one haplotypes were identified, of which haplotype A was the most common and widely distributed. Neither the network nor the NJ tree showed any geographic differentiation between northern and southern populations. Haplotype diversities, Tajima's DT and Fu & Li's F and D neutrality tests and mismatch distribution supported a scenario of Holocene demographic expansion. The demographic pattern suggests that An. pseudopunctipennis has undergone a single colonization process, and the ancestral haplotype is shared by specimens from all localities, indicating mitochondrial gene flow. Genetic differentiation was minimal, observed only between one northern and one southern locality. The estimated time of the population expansion of this species was during the Holocene. These data suggest that regional vector control measures would be equally

  16. Comparison of demographic profile of patient with schizophrenia and depression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sateesh R Koujalgi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To study and explore the socio-demographic profile of patients with schizophrenia and depression. Materials and Methods: Consecutively, 100 schizophrenia patients and 100 depression patients attending psychiatry department were included in the study. The International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD - 10 criteria were used for diagnosis and these patients were assessed by self-developed socio demographic proforma. Statistical analysis was done using SPSS, version 17 software. Chi-square tests were done for comparison of the variables between the two groups. Results: Two groups of patients with schizophrenia and depression have differed on variables like age, gender, marital status, education, occupation, duration of illness, family history of psychiatric illness, and patient income. These groups did not differ on other socio-demographic variables like, urban/rural distribution, type of family, and religion. Conclusion: The study finds significant difference in demographic variables in schizophrenia and depressive disorder.

  17. Political demography: Powerful trends under-attended by demographic science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teitelbaum, Michael S

    2015-01-01

    The interconnections between politics and the dramatic demographic changes under way around the world have been neglected by the two research disciplines that could contribute most to their understanding: demography and political science. Instead, this area of 'political demography' has largely been ceded to political activists, pundits, and journalists, leading often to exaggerated or garbled interpretation. The terrain includes some of the most politically sensitive and contested issues: alleged demographically determined shifts in the international balance of power; low fertility, population decline, and demographic ageing; international migration; change in national identity; and compositional shifts in politically sensitive social categories and human rights. Meanwhile many governments and non-governmental actors have actively pursued varieties of 'strategic demography', deploying fertility, mortality, or migration as instruments of domestic or international policy. Political scientists and demographers could and should use their knowledge and analytic techniques to improve understanding and to moderate excessive claims and fears on these topics.

  18. Parental mediation of adolescent media use and demographic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Parental mediation of adolescent media use and demographic factors as predictors of Kenyan high school students' exposure to sexual content in television. Kyalo wa Ngula, Hellen K. Mberia, Ann Neville Miller ...

  19. EnviroAtlas - Portland, OR - Demographics by Block Group

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset is a summary of key demographic groups for the EnviroAtlas community. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online...

  20. Socio-demographic and clinical factors affecting adherence to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Socio-demographic and clinical factors affecting adherence to antihypertensive medications and blood pressure control among patients attending the family practice clinic in a tertiary hospital in northern Nigeria.

  1. EnviroAtlas - Cleveland, OH - Demographics by Block Group

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset is a summary of key demographic groups for the EnviroAtlas community. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online...

  2. EnviroAtlas - New Bedford, MA - Demographics by Block Group

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset is a summary of key demographic groups for the EnviroAtlas community. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online...

  3. EnviroAtlas - Durham, NC - Demographics by Block Group

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset is a summary of key demographic groups for the EnviroAtlas community. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online...

  4. EnviroAtlas - Pittsburgh, PA - Demographics by Block Group

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset is a summary of key demographic groups for the EnviroAtlas community. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online...

  5. EnviroAtlas - Portland, ME - Demographics by Block Group

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset is a summary of key demographic groups for the EnviroAtlas community. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online...

  6. EnviroAtlas - Green Bay, WI - Demographics by Block Group

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset is a summary of key demographic groups for the EnviroAtlas community. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online...

  7. Demographic Trends (1970-2010) for Coastal Geographies

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Demographic Trends (1970-2010) were derived from Census Block Group Data for 13 different coastal geographies. For a full listing of the geographies available,...

  8. EnviroAtlas - Austin, TX - Demographics by Block Group

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset is a summary of key demographic groups for the EnviroAtlas community. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online...

  9. EnviroAtlas - New York, NY - Demographics by Block Group

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset is a summary of key demographic groups for the EnviroAtlas community. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online...

  10. EnviroAtlas - Tampa, FL - Demographics by Block Group

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset is a summary of key demographic groups for the EnviroAtlas community. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online...

  11. Socio-demographic correlates of psychological distress among male ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Socio-demographic correlates of psychological distress among male ... using the Mini International Neuropsychiatry Interview (MINI) depression and anxiety module. ... Psychological distress was significantly associated with a history of marital ...

  12. Prevalence And Socio-Demographic Determinants Of Obesity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    demographic determinants of obesity among adults in an urban Nigerian population. Subjects and methods: We recruited 810 subjects between the ages of 18 to 65 years by the multi-stage cluster sampling method. Structured questionnaire was ...

  13. Changing Demographics and the Impact on Air Force Officer Retention

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Armstrong, Brenda

    2000-01-01

    .... A review of the demographic studies performed by the Air Force Chaplain Office in the early 1980s and the National Families and Work Institute in 1997 reflect the trend towards an increasing concern...

  14. The demographic, clinical and forensic profile of offenders ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The demographic, clinical and forensic profile of offenders diagnosed with epilepsy referred to the Free State Psychiatric Complex Observation Unit in terms of section 77 and/or 78 of the Criminal Procedure Act 51 of 1977.

  15. Demographic processes limiting seedling recruitment in arid grassland restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeremy J. James; Tony J. Svejcar; Matthew J. Rinella

    2011-01-01

    Seeding is an important management tool in aridland restoration, but seeded species often fail to establish. Previous research has largely focused on the technical aspects of seeding with little effort directed at identifying demographic processes driving recruitment failures.

  16. Prevalence and demographic distribution of canine rabies in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prevalence and demographic distribution of canine rabies in Plateau State, Nigeria, 2004 – 2009. Bolajoko Muhammad-Bashir, Ahmed Mohammed Sani, Okewole Philip Ademola, Kumbish Peterside, Muhammad Maryam, Jenna Fyfe ...

  17. Modifiable Risk factors of Hypertension and Socio‑demographic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    communicable diseases. Keywords: ... Ibekwe: Correlation between modifiable risk factors of hypertension and socio‑demographic profile in Oghara, Delta State. 72. Annals of .... entered into the spread‑sheet of SPSS version 16.0 (Chicago. II, USA) ...

  18. Socio-demographic factors affecting knowledge level of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    demographic factors on TB knowledge level. Results: The results revealed that ... airborne, infectious disease caused by bacteria which primarily affect the lungs. Approximately one ..... belongings can spread TB. Our findings are consist- ent with ...

  19. EnviroAtlas - Milwaukee, WI - Demographics by Block Group

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset is a summary of key demographic groups for the EnviroAtlas community. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online...

  20. EnviroAtlas - Memphis, TN - Demographics by Block Group

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset is a summary of key demographic groups for the EnviroAtlas community. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online...

  1. EnviroAtlas - Phoenix, AZ - Demographics by Block Group

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset is a summary of key demographic groups for the EnviroAtlas community. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online...

  2. Demographic changes and consumers behaviours on the bread market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elżbieta Goryńska-Goldmann

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of demographic changes occurring in Poland conducted in the present article shows trends and allows the consideration of demographic premises of the development and changes in behaviours of consumers on the bread market, i.e. of the product which takes priority place in the group of essential needs. Following demographic indicators were discussed: the size of Polish population, the rate of the fertility and mortalities, the age structure, average life expectancy, the household and the level of education. Appearing demographic trends allow forecasting the volume of demand for products. It was stated that on the bread market there will be changes of quantitative, genre as well as qualitative character that determine a challenge for enterprises of the bakery industry.

  3. Demographic variations in the coping ability of people living with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ) across demographic variations of gender, duration of living with HIV infection, marital status and living arrangements either with the family or alone. Method: The research design adopted in this study was descriptive survey. The population ...

  4. Peripheralisation: the missing link in dealing with demographic change?

    OpenAIRE

    Leibert, Tim; Golinski, Sophie

    2016-01-01

    "Demographic change is an uneven spatial process in Germany. Depopulation and ageing have become pressing issues in most rural regions. In connection with low population densities and the financial difficulties of municipalities and service providers in rural regions, these demographic trends have led to a discussion about the future provision of services of general interest and - more broadly - the postulate of equal living conditions which was for a long time the basic principle of spatial ...

  5. Demographic potential of the Nišava district

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đokić Mrđan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the demographic potential of the Nišava District at the administrative level of municipality. It is shown through the analysis of the selected indicators: numerical trends and age structure of the population. The main demographic processes that characterize the observed district are the overall depopulation (the decrease of the total population and the aging of the population. Due to this, the change in the population numbers according to previous censuses has been investigated in order to determine its intensity in different periods. Some population characteristics such as the age of the population, the aging index, the age coefficient, the young population contingent (0-19 and the old population continent (60 and over as well as the fertile and labor contingent have been used to represent the age structure. The changes in the educational structure are considered in interaction with the processes of depopulation and demographic aging. This has been an attempt to determine the degree of correlation between demographic processes and the education level of the population. The results of the analysis of the demographic potential point to spatial disparity of the Nišava District. Unfavorable demographic processes, extreme depopulation and aging of the population of this district have had a large influence on the weakening of the demographic basis and the decrease in the overall potential of the observed district. The mutual dependence of the process of depopulation and pronounced changes in the age structure towards ever increasing aging of the population has created a vicious cycle which leads to unfavorable and unstoppable demographic changes in this area.

  6. Demographic and Competitiveness Acceleration and Government Sustainable Advantage in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Samosir, Omas Bulan; Rajagukguk, Wilson

    2017-01-01

    The objective of this research is to investigate the effects of demographic and competitiveness acceleration on sustainable advantage in government areas in Indonesia. The research is done at district level (kabupaten/kota) in Indonesia. The sustainable advantage variable is the gross domestic product (GDP), while the demographic and competitiveness acceleration variables are the dependency ratio growth rate, capital investment, percentage share of agriculture in the economy, and percentage o...

  7. An Observational Perspective of Transitional Disks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espaillat, C.; Muzerolle, J.; Najita, J.; Andrews, S.; Zhu, Z.; Calvet, N.; Kraus, S.; Hashimoto, J.; Kraus, A.; D'Alessio, P.

    Transitional disks are objects whose inner disk regions have undergone substantial clearing. The Spitzer Space Telescope produced detailed spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of transitional disks that allowed us to infer their radial dust disk structure in some detail, revealing the diversity of this class of disks. The growing sample of transitional disks also opened up the possibility of demographic studies, which provided unique insights. There now exist (sub)millimeter and infrared images that confirm the presence of large clearings of dust in transitional disks. In addition, protoplanet candidates have been detected within some of these clearings. Transitional disks are thought to be a strong link to planet formation around young stars and are a key area to study if further progress is to be made on understanding the initial stages of planet formation. Here we provide a review and synthesis of transitional disk observations to date with the aim of providing timely direction to the field, which is about to undergo its next burst of growth as the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) reaches its full potential. We discuss what we have learned about transitional disks from SEDs, color-color diagrams, and imaging in the (sub)millimeter and infrared. We note the limitations of these techniques, particularly with respect to the sizes of the clearings currently detectable, and highlight the need for pairing broadband SEDs with multi-wavelength images to paint a more detailed picture of transitional disk structure. We review the gas in transitional disks, keeping in mind that future observations with ALMA will give us unprecedented access to gas in disks, and also observed infrared variability pointing to variable transitional disk structure, which may have implications for disks in general. We then distill the observations into constraints for the main disk-clearing mechanisms proposed to date (i.e., photoevaporation, grain growth, and companions) and

  8. Can Population Topics Form the Subject of Educational Action? Le point de vue du demographe (The Demographer's Point of View).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arias de Blois, Jorge

    1993-01-01

    Contends that population education must address social, religious, and political issues. Early family planning programs have been widened to include migration, life expectancy, and public health, but large sections of the population remain ill-informed on demographic questions. (DMM)

  9. Rapidly variable relatvistic absorption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, M.; Pinto, C.; Fabian, A.; Lohfink, A.; Buisson, D.; Alston, W.; Jiang, J.

    2017-10-01

    I will present results from the 1.5Ms XMM-Newton observing campaign on the most X-ray variable AGN, IRAS 13224-3809. We find a series of nine absorption lines with a velocity of 0.24c from an ultra-fast outflow. For the first time, we are able to see extremely rapid variability of the UFO features, and can link this to the X-ray variability from the inner accretion disk. We find a clear flux dependence of the outflow features, suggesting that the wind is ionized by increasing X-ray emission.

  10. Rapid prototype and test

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gregory, D.L.; Hansche, B.D.

    1996-06-01

    In order to support advanced manufacturing, Sandia has acquired the capability to produce plastic prototypes using stereolithography. Currently, these prototypes are used mainly to verify part geometry and ``fit and form`` checks. This project investigates methods for rapidly testing these plastic prototypes, and inferring from prototype test data actual metal part performance and behavior. Performances examined include static load/stress response, and structural dynamic (modal) and vibration behavior. The integration of advanced non-contacting measurement techniques including scanning laser velocimetry, laser holography, and thermoelasticity into testing of these prototypes is described. Photoelastic properties of the epoxy prototypes to reveal full field stress/strain fields are also explored.

  11. Right-Rapid-Rough

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Craig

    2003-01-01

    IDEO (pronounced 'eye-dee-oh') is an international design, engineering, and innovation firm that has developed thousands of products and services for clients across a wide range of industries. Its process and culture attracted the attention of academics, businesses, and journalists around the world, and are the subject of a bestselling book, The Art of Innovation by Tom Kelley. One of the keys to IDEO's success is its use of prototyping as a tool for rapid innovation. This story covers some of IDEO's projects, and gives reasons for why they were successful.

  12. Metabolic Constraints on the Eukaryotic Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Rodrick

    2009-04-01

    Mutualism, obligate mutualism, symbiosis, and the eukaryotic ‘fusion’ of Serial Endosymbiosis Theory represent progressively more rapid and less distorted real-time communication between biological structures instantiating information sources. Such progression in accurate information transmission requires, in turn, progressively greater channel capacity that, through the homology between information source uncertainty and free energy density, requires ever more energetic metabolism. The eukaryotic transition, according to this model, may have been entrained by an ecosystem resilience shift from anaerobic to aerobic metabolism.

  13. Economic Transition and Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Phillips, Peter C.B.; Donggyu Sul

    2005-01-01

    Some extensions of neoclassical growth models are discussed that allow for cross section heterogeneity among economies and evolution in rates of technological progress over time. The models offer a spectrum of transitional behavior among economies that includes convergence to a common steady state path as well as various forms of transitional divergence and convergence. Mechanisms for modeling such transitions and measuring them econometrically are developed in the paper. A new regression tes...

  14. Transitions in Mathematics Education

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Verschaffel, Ghislaine GueudetMarianna BoschAndrea A. diSessaOh Nam KwonLieven

    2016-01-01

    .... The book focuses on research in the area of mathematics education, and starts out with a literature review, describing the epistemological, cognitive, institutional and sociocultural perspectives on transition...

  15. Transit Benefit Program Data -

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — This data set contains information about any US government agency participating in the transit benefits program, funding agreements, individual participating Federal...

  16. Rapid mineralocorticoid receptor trafficking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gekle, M; Bretschneider, M; Meinel, S; Ruhs, S; Grossmann, C

    2014-03-01

    The mineralocorticoid receptor (MR) is a ligand-dependent transcription factor that physiologically regulates water-electrolyte homeostasis and controls blood pressure. The MR can also elicit inflammatory and remodeling processes in the cardiovascular system and the kidneys, which require the presence of additional pathological factors like for example nitrosative stress. However, the underlying molecular mechanism(s) for pathophysiological MR effects remain(s) elusive. The inactive MR is located in the cytosol associated with chaperone molecules including HSP90. After ligand binding, the MR monomer rapidly translocates into the nucleus while still being associated to HSP90 and after dissociation from HSP90 binds to hormone-response-elements called glucocorticoid response elements (GREs) as a dimer. There are indications that rapid MR trafficking is modulated in the presence of high salt, oxidative or nitrosative stress, hypothetically by induction or posttranslational modifications. Additionally, glucocorticoids and the enzyme 11beta hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase may also influence MR activation. Because MR trafficking and its modulation by micro-milieu factors influence MR cellular localization, it is not only relevant for genomic but also for nongenomic MR effects. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Rapid response manufacturing (RRM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cain, W.D. [Lockheed Martin Energy Systems, Inc., Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Waddell, W.L. [National Centers for Manufacturing Sciences, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

    1997-02-18

    US industry is fighting to maintain its competitive edge in the global market place. Today markets fluctuate rapidly. Companies, to survive, have to be able to respond with quick-to-market, improved, high quality, cost efficient products. The way products are developed and brought to market can be improved and made more efficient through the proper incorporation of emerging technologies. The RRM project was established to leverage the expertise and resources of US private industries and federal agencies to develop, integrate, and deploy new technologies that meet critical needs for effective product realization. The RRM program addressed a needed change in the US Manufacturing infrastructure that will ensure US competitiveness in world market typified by mass customization. This project provided the effort needed to define, develop and establish a customizable infrastructure for rapid response product development design and manufacturing. A major project achievement was the development of a broad-based framework for automating and integrating the product and process design and manufacturing activities involved with machined parts. This was accomplished by coordinating and extending the application of feature-based product modeling, knowledge-based systems, integrated data management, and direct manufacturing technologies in a cooperative integrated computing environment. Key technological advancements include a product model that integrates product and process data in a consistent, minimally redundant manner, an advanced computer-aided engineering environment, knowledge-based software aids for design and process planning, and new production technologies to make products directly from design application software.

  18. Mortality in Transition: Study Protocol of the PrivMort Project, a multilevel convenience cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darja Irdam

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Previous research using routine data identified rapid mass privatisation as an important driver of mortality crisis following the collapse of Communism in Central and Eastern Europe. However, existing studies on the mortality crisis relying on individual level or routine data cannot assess both distal (societal and proximal (individual causes of mortality simultaneously. The aim of the PrivMort Project is to overcome these limitations and to investigate the role of societal factors (particularly rapid mass privatisation and individual-level factors (e.g. alcohol consumption in the mortality changes in post-communist countries. Methods The PrivMort conducts large-sample surveys in Russia, Belarus and Hungary. The approach is unique in comparing towns that have undergone rapid privatisation of their key industrial enterprises with those that experienced more gradual forms of privatisation, employing a multi-level retrospective cohort design that combines data on the industrial characteristics of the towns, socio-economic descriptions of the communities, settlement-level data, individual socio-economic characteristics, and individuals’ health behaviour. It then incorporates data on mortality of different types of relatives of survey respondents, employing a retrospective demographic approach, which enables linkage of historical patterns of mortality to exposures, based on experiences of family members. By May 2016, 63,073 respondents provided information on themselves and 205,607 relatives, of whom 102,971 had died. The settlement-level dataset contains information on 539 settlements and 12,082 enterprises in these settlements in Russia, 96 settlements and 271 enterprises in Belarus, and 52 settlement and 148 enterprises in Hungary. Discussion In addition to reinforcing existing evidence linking smoking, hazardous drinking and unemployment to mortality, the PrivMort dataset will investigate the variation in transition

  19. Mortality in Transition: Study Protocol of the PrivMort Project, a multilevel convenience cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irdam, Darja; King, Lawrence; Gugushvili, Alexi; Azarova, Aytalina; Fazekas, Mihaly; Scheiring, Gabor; Stefler, Denes; Doniec, Katarzyna; Horvat, Pia; Kolesnikova, Irina; Popov, Vladimir; Szelenyi, Ivan; Marmot, Michael; Murphy, Michael; McKee, Martin; Bobak, Martin

    2016-07-30

    Previous research using routine data identified rapid mass privatisation as an important driver of mortality crisis following the collapse of Communism in Central and Eastern Europe. However, existing studies on the mortality crisis relying on individual level or routine data cannot assess both distal (societal) and proximal (individual) causes of mortality simultaneously. The aim of the PrivMort Project is to overcome these limitations and to investigate the role of societal factors (particularly rapid mass privatisation) and individual-level factors (e.g. alcohol consumption) in the mortality changes in post-communist countries. The PrivMort conducts large-sample surveys in Russia, Belarus and Hungary. The approach is unique in comparing towns that have undergone rapid privatisation of their key industrial enterprises with those that experienced more gradual forms of privatisation, employing a multi-level retrospective cohort design that combines data on the industrial characteristics of the towns, socio-economic descriptions of the communities, settlement-level data, individual socio-economic characteristics, and individuals' health behaviour. It then incorporates data on mortality of different types of relatives of survey respondents, employing a retrospective demographic approach, which enables linkage of historical patterns of mortality to exposures, based on experiences of family members. By May 2016, 63,073 respondents provided information on themselves and 205,607 relatives, of whom 102,971 had died. The settlement-level dataset contains information on 539 settlements and 12,082 enterprises in these settlements in Russia, 96 settlements and 271 enterprises in Belarus, and 52 settlement and 148 enterprises in Hungary. In addition to reinforcing existing evidence linking smoking, hazardous drinking and unemployment to mortality, the PrivMort dataset will investigate the variation in transition experiences for individual respondents and their families across

  20. Brain Performance versus Phase Transitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Joaquín J; Marro, J

    2015-07-20

    We here illustrate how a well-founded study of the brain may originate in assuming analogies with phase-transition phenomena. Analyzing to what extent a weak signal endures in noisy environments, we identify the underlying mechanisms, and it results a description of how the excitability associated to (non-equilibrium) phase changes and criticality optimizes the processing of the signal. Our setting is a network of integrate-and-fire nodes in which connections are heterogeneous with rapid time-varying intensities mimicking fatigue and potentiation. Emergence then becomes quite robust against wiring topology modification--in fact, we considered from a fully connected network to the Homo sapiens connectome--showing the essential role of synaptic flickering on computations. We also suggest how to experimentally disclose significant changes during actual brain operation.