Patterns of Demographic Change in the Missions of Central Alta California

OpenAIRE

Jackson, Robert H

1987-01-01

A number of scholars have examined the cause of demographic collapse in the Californias, and have included stress, disease, and subsistence crises among their explanations. This essay does not attempt to explain in detail the causes of demographic change, but rather to document population movements in the seven missions in central Alta California, from Santa Cruz in the north to San Luis Obispo in the south. The basic premise entertained here is that the process of demographic change in the C...

Changing demographics and state fiscal outlook: the case of sales taxes.

Science.gov (United States)

Mullins, D R; Wallace, S

1996-04-01

"Broad-scale demographic changes have implications for state and local finance in terms of the composition of the base of revenue sources and their yields. This article examines the effect of such changes on the potential future yield of consumption-based taxes. The effect of household characteristics and composition on the consumption of selected groups of goods subject to ad valorem retail sales taxes is estimated, generating demographic elasticities of consumption. These elasticities are applied to projected demographic changes in eight states through the year 2000. The results show rather wide variation in expected consumption shifts and potential tax bases across the states, with income growth having the greatest effect...." The geographical focus is on the United States. excerpt

Responding to Demographic Change: What Do Suburban District Leaders Need to Know?

Science.gov (United States)

Diarrassouba, Nagnon; Johnson, Shirley

2014-01-01

This study examined the demographic shifts in a medium-sized school district in West Michigan and the responses developed as a result of these changes during the last two decades. Findings indicated that the district's school demographics changed from being European American to minority dominant. As a result of these changes in student population…

Patterns of demographic change in the Americas.

Science.gov (United States)

Ubelaker, D H

1992-06-01

Considerable scholarly debate has focused on the nature of demographic change in the Americas before and after 1492. Recent research on human skeletal samples and related archeological materials suggests that morbidity and mortality were increasing throughout much of the Western Hemisphere before 1492 in response to increased population density, increased sedentism, and changing subsistence. The evidence suggests that after 1492 population reduction was caused not by continental pandemics but by localized or regional epidemics augmented by social and economic disruption. The twentieth century has witnessed remarkable Native American population recovery, fueled both by improvements in health care and changing definitions of "being Indian."

The Changing Demographic Profile of the United States

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Shrestha, Laura B

2006-01-01

...." The objective of this report is to highlight some of the demographic changes that have already occurred since 1950 and to illustrate how these and future trends will reshape the nation in the decades to come (through 2050...

Implications of Demographic Change for the Design of Retirement Programs.

Science.gov (United States)

Biggs, John H.

1994-01-01

The influences that demographic changes may have on the design of private pension plans in the twenty-first century are examined. Major demographic factors to be considered include the aging of the population, declining mortality rate, potential for an even lower mortality rate, improved health for all ages and especially for older workers, and…

Toward a mechanistic understanding of human-induced rapid environmental change: A case study linking energy development, avian nest predation, and predators

Science.gov (United States)

Hethcoat, Matthew G.; Chalfoun, Anna D.

2015-01-01

Demographic consequences of human-induced rapid environmental change (HIREC) have been widely documented for many populations. The mechanisms underlying such patterns, however, are rarely investigated and yet are critical to understand for effective conservation and management.

School District Policymaking Responses to Demographic Change in New Immigrant Destinations

OpenAIRE

Turner, Erica Owyang

2011-01-01

Since the early 1990s, immigrants from Latin America and Asia have been arriving in parts of the United States that have had little recent experience with immigration. How school district leaders respond to these demographic changes has significant consequences for students, families and communities. Yet, there is little research on why and how school district leaders are coming to enact some policies, and not others, in response to their changing demographics. This study examines policymakin...

Demographic change in Germany and reversal of spatial ageing patterns

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Swiaczny Frank

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the result of a spatial analysis considering the effect of demographic ageing and ageing-in-place processes in Germany according to spatially differentiated ageing patterns among urban, sub-urban and rural counties up to 2025. As to the latest official population forecast counties of urban core regions will undergo a slower ageing process than other types of counties, resulting in a reversal of ageing patterns. Urban core areas in this analysis will gain demographically from their net migration surplus while suburban housing locations of the past will be no longer able to attract enough young migrants to compensate for their now rapidly ageing baby boomer generation. The process presented is typical for the fate of (suburban housing areas with homogenous populations under conditions of ageing and shrinking if spatial mobility in ageing population groups is declining.

Demographic change in Germany and reversal of spatial ageing patterns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Swiaczny F.

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the result of a spatial analysis considering the effect of demographic ageing and ageing-in-place processes in Germany according to spatially differentiated ageing patterns among urban, sub-urban and rural counties up to 2025. As to the latest official population forecast counties of urban core regions will undergo a slower ageing process than other types of counties, resulting in a reversal of ageing patterns. Urban core areas in this analysis will gain demographically from their net migration surplus while suburban housing locations of the past will be no longer able to attract enough young migrants to compensate for their now rapidly ageing baby boomer generation. The process presented is typical for the fate of (suburban housing areas with homogenous populations under conditions of ageing and shrinking if spatial mobility in ageing population groups is declining.

Managing diversity: Changing demographics in the engineering workplace

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Judd, J.C.; Vella, J.J.

1990-01-01

Technological development creates a need for better educated workers with increased basic, analytical, and interpersonal skills. At the same time, both the population of 22-yr olds and the numbers of traditional students who are choosing careers in engineering and science are decreasing, creating a gap between engineering and construction needs and available trained resources. If more and better caliber students are not attracted to engineering, industry is expected to face selective shortages in the future. There is no question that the demographic composition of the next generation of engineers will significantly differ from that of today's engineers. Industry must recognize the changes that are occurring and take action to ensure that there continues to be an adequate supply of technically qualified workers in light of these demographic changes. In its role as adviser and coordinator of industry action, ANS can play a vital role in ensuring that the industry actions are timely and effective. The ANS should form a committee to study the changing composition of future engineers and constructors and formulate an effective action plan that industry can use to continue to attract able, top-performing students to the engineering field

'Fair innings' in the face of ageing and demographic change.

Science.gov (United States)

Hazra, Nisha C; Gulliford, Martin C; Rudisill, Caroline

2018-04-01

There are now 125 million people aged 80 years and over worldwide, projected by the United Nations to grow threefold by 2050. While increases in life expectancy and rapid increases in the older-age population are considered positive developments, the consequential future health care burden represents a leading concern for health services. We revisit Williams' 'fair innings' argument from 1997, in light of technological and demographic changes, and challenge the notion that greater longevity may impose an unfair burden on younger generations. We discuss perspectives on the equity-efficiency trade-off in terms of their implications for the growing over-80 population, as well as society in general. This includes questioning the comparison of treatment cost-effectiveness in younger vs. older populations when using quality-adjusted life years and the transience of life expectancies over generations. While recognising that there will never be a clear consensus regarding societal value judgements, we present empirical evidence on the very elderly that lends support to a stronger anti-ageist stance given current increases in longevity.

Demographic Change and Representation by Population in the Canadian House of Commons

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Don Kerr

2010-12-01

delineation of boundaries of federal electoral districts. As argued in this paper,the traditional understandings and agreements that have shaped decisions relating to electoral districts are increasingly at odds with Canada’s emerging demographic realities. In a nation that is highly reliant on immigration in maintaining its population, the current representational order arguably penalizes regions of the country which are growing most rapidly, and in particular, where new immigrants are most likely to locate. The current paper also considers possible reforms in the manner in which electoral districts are drawn, which at a minimum could involve the use of more up to date and accurate demographic data.

The Impact of Demographic Change on Tourism in North Oltenia Region

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Iulian Adrian SORCARU

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Tourism in any region is closely linked to its demographic potential. North Oltenia is known in Romania for its valuable tourism potential, both natural and anthropic, which caused over time a contiuous diversification of the types of tourism. This study deals with the demographic evolution of the administrative units in North Oltenia, between Tismana and Olt Rivers in the last half of century (1966-2015, analyzing also the age structure and demographic ageing after 1990. The major objectives of this study were to identify the types of demographic change and the hierarchy of the administrative units; the analysis of age structure (youth, adults, elders, especially adults who include the working population capable of sustaining tourist flows in the region and demographic ageing. Mapping the results was designed to quickly identify the administrative units where demographic potential recorded an unfavorable evolution, where tourism potential and maintenance of the existing tourism infrastructure can be more difficult in the future.

The demographic changes of the last quarter of century in Romania

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Adriana Veronica LITRA

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The year 1990 has delimited two different demographic periods in Romania: the first, defined as Stage 2 in the Demographic Transition Model (as in Population Education, USA, characterized by low mortality rates due to advances in medical, and high birth rates, resulting rapid population growth; after 1990, Romania moved to Stage 5, having a negative growth rate due to less births than deaths, and a negative net migration rate. Romania is experiencing a falling population with birth rates at 8.3 births per 1,000 persons and death rates at 11.4 per 1,000 persons in 2014. The total fertility rate fell significantly below the replacement level of generations (1.4 live births per woman in 2014, reversing the proportion of elderly in detriment of the youth.

Partner relationships in the Netherlands: new manifestations of the Second Demographic Transition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Latten, J.J.; Mulder, C.H.

2013-01-01

Partnership formation has rapidly and profoundly changed in theNetherlandssince the 1960s.Several scholars have placed these changes in the context of the Second Demographic Transition. We describe the main trends in the formation and dissolution of partnerships in theNetherlandsbetween the

Partner relationships in the Netherlands : New manifestations of the Second Demographic Transition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Latten, Jan J.; Mulder, Clara H.

2013-01-01

Partnership formation has rapidly and profoundly changed in theNetherlandssince the 1960s.Several scholars have placed these changes in the context of the Second Demographic Transition. We describe the main trends in the formation and dissolution of partnerships in theNetherlandsbetween the

Decline, Adaptation or Transformation:New Perspectives on Demographic Change in Resource Peripheries in Australia and Sweden

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Dean B. Carson

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Many sparsely populated resource peripheries in developed countries are perceived to suffer from periods of demographic decline due to loss of employment opportunities and services, youth out-migration and population ageing. While these trends tend to apply at broad regional scales and for particular time periods, diverse patterns of demographic change may be apparent if different spatial, temporal and social scales of analysis are taken into consideration. Comparing the experiences of two case study regions in northern Sweden and inland South Australia, this paper proposes an alternative conceptual framework to the “discourse of decline”, which could be used to examine the nuances of demographic change within resource peripheries. The framework includes spatial scale considerations that contrast broader regional demographic patterns with the experiences of sub-regions and individual settlements. It also includes temporal scale aspects, examining demographic change over different time periods to understand the pace, duration and frequency of population growth and decline. The framework finally includes social unit considerations, emphasising that demographic change affects different social groups in different ways. The results of the case studies suggest that considering demographic change as adaptation or transformation rather than decline may be more useful for identifying new – and qualitatively different – demographic pathways that emerge over time.

Simulating Residential Demand in Singapore through Five Decades of Demographic Change

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, N. R.; Fernández, J.

2011-12-01

Singapore's rapid and well-documented development over the last half-century provides an ideal case for studying urban metabolism. Extensive data [1, 2] facilitate the modeling of historical dynamics of population and resource consumption. This paper presents an agent-based population model that simulates key demographic factors - number, size, and relative income of households - through fifty years of development in Singapore. This is the first step in a broader study linking demographic factors to residential demand for urban land, materials, water, and energy. Previous studies of the resource demands of housing stock have accounted for demographics by modifying the important population driver with a single, aggregated "lifestyle" term [3, 4]. However, demographic changes that result from development can influence the nature of the residential sector, and warrant a closer look. Increasing levels of education and affluence coupled with decreasing birth rates have yielded an aging population and changing family structures in Singapore [5]. These factors all contribute to an increasingly resource-intense residential sector. Singaporeans' elevated per capita income and life expectancy have created demand for larger household area, which means a growing percentage of available land must be dedicated to residential use [6]. While the majority of Singapore's housing is public - a strategy designed to maximize land use efficiency - residents are increasingly seeking private alternatives [7]. In the private sector, lower density housing puts even greater pressure on the finite supply of undeveloped land. Agent-based modeling is used to study the selected aspects of demography. The population is disaggregated into historical time-series distributions of age, family size, education, and income. We propose a simplified methodology correlating average education level with birth rate, and income to categorize households and establish housing unit demand. Aggregated lifestyle

How can “gender planning” contribute to tackle the challenges of demographic change?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wankiewicz Heidrun

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Ageing society, lack of skilled workforce, changes in work life careers and changes in partner and family models, a shift in societal roles of women and men, young and old, migration flows from rural to urban, multiple residences and new forms of housing and the related spatial impacts are in focus of demographic change. It is obvious that demographic change is not to be managed without gender and equality issues. Spatial planning has a crucial role in facing these challenges as spatial planning laws demand to ensure equal access to housing, services and labour markets and to organize transparent and inclusive decision making procedures. The paper explores key concepts, methods and selected case studies from Europe on gender planning trying to focus on the potential for innovating planning discipline and tackling with demographic change issues in rural areas. Cases from Bavaria and Austria compared to rural regions in Eastern Germany with high female emigration show concrete planning approaches.

Impact of demographic changes on higher education institutions : Llithuania in a global context

OpenAIRE

Grebliauskas, Artūras; Leskauskaitė, Aušra

2012-01-01

The present article raises the following problematic questions: how have higher education institutions prepared themselves for facing challenges coming from the environment modified by demographic changes? What new strategic directions in higher education institutions operation are determined by a steadily-decreasing number of students? This research purposes: firstly, to inquire into the impact of demographic changes on higher education institutions activities, and, secondly, to determine ho...

Living in the tide of change: Explaining Japanese subjective health from the socio-demographic

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Hidefumi eHitokoto

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Today, countries around the world are caught in the tide of change towards Gesellshaft, or individualistic socio-demographic condition. Recent investigations in Japan have suggested negative impacts of change on emotional and motivational aspects of the Japanese self (Norasakkunkit, Uchida, and Toivonen, 2012; Ogihara and Uchida, 2014. Building on previous findings, in Study 1, we measured socio-demographic change towards individualistic societal condition during 1990 to 2010—two decades marked by great economic recession—at the levels of prefecture and city using archival data. In Study 2, we tested whether Japanese adults’ general health, satisfaction with life, self-esteem, and perceived social support were negatively predicted by the change using social survey. Results of hierarchical linear modeling showed small but unique negative effects of the change on several health measures, suggesting that this change had an impact on health, above and beyond individual personality traits and demographics. Additionally, interdependent happiness, the type of cultural happiness grounded in interdependence of the self (Hitokoto and Uchida, 2014, showed an independent positive relationship with all aspects of health examined. Implications for health studies in changing socio-demographic condition are discussed in the context of Japanese society after economic crisis.

Openness to change: experiential and demographic components of change in in Local Health Department leaders

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Emmanuel D Jadhav

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Background: During the 2008-10 economic recession, Kentucky local health department (LHD leaders utilized innovative strategies to maintain their programs. A characteristic of innovative strategy is leader openness to change. Leader demographical research in for-profit organizations has yielded valuable insight into leader openness to change. For LHD leaders the nature of the association between leader demographic and organizational characteristics on leader openness to change is unknown. The objectives of this study are to identify variation in openness to change by leaders’ demographic and organizational characteristics and to characterize the underlying relationships. Material and Methods: The study utilized Spearman rank correlations test to determine relationships between leader openness to change (ACQ and leader and LHD characteristics. To identify differences in the distribution of ACQ scores, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney and Kruskal Wallis non-parametric tests were used, and to adjust for potential confounding linear regression analysis was performed.Data: LHD leaders in the Commonwealth of Kentucky were the unit of analysis. Expenditure and revenue data were available from the state health department. National census data was utilized for county level population estimates. A cross-sectional survey was performed of KY LHD leaders’ observable attributes relating to age, gender, race, educational background, leadership experience and openness to change. Results: Leaders had relatively high openness to change scores. Spearman correlations between leader ACQ and departmental 2012-13 revenue and expenditures were statistically significant, as were the differences observed in ACQ by gender and the educational level of the leader. Differences in ACQ score by education level and agency revenue were significant even after adjusting for potential confounders. The analyses imply there are underlying relationships between leader and LHD characteristics

Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds.

Science.gov (United States)

Barbraud, Christophe; Rivalan, Philippe; Inchausti, Pablo; Nevoux, Marie; Rolland, Virginie; Weimerskirch, Henri

2011-01-01

1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth's climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics

Demographics and Volatile Social Security Wealth: Political Risks of Benefit Rule Changes in Germany

OpenAIRE

Christoph Borgmann; Matthias Heidler

2003-01-01

In this paper we address the question how the generosity of the benefit rule of the German public pension system has changed during the past three decades and how this development can be explained by demographic changes. Firstly, we illustrate the political risk of benefit rule changes for individuals. We find that depending on the birth year and the considered scenario the relative losses vary between 30 and nearly 60 percent. Secondly, we estimate how demographic developments have triggered...

Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.

2017-11-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

Science.gov (United States)

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason

2017-01-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

A population-based longitudinal study on the implication of demographic changes on blood donation and transfusion demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Greinacher, Andreas; Weitmann, Kerstin; Schönborn, Linda; Alpen, Ulf; Gloger, Doris; Stangenberg, Wolfgang; Stüpmann, Kerstin; Greger, Nico; Kiefel, Volker; Hoffmann, Wolfgang

2017-06-13

Transfusion safety includes the risk of transmission of pathogens, appropriate transfusion thresholds, and sufficient blood supply. All industrialized countries experience major ongoing demographic changes resulting from low birth rates and aging of the baby boom generation. Little evidence exists about whether future blood supply and demand correlate with these demographic changes. The ≥50% decline in birth rate in the eastern part of Germany after 1990 facilitates systematic study of the effects of pronounced demographic changes on blood donation and demand. In this prospective, 10-year longitudinal study, we enrolled all whole blood donors and all patients receiving red blood cell transfusions in the state of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania. We compared projections made in 2005 based on the projected demographic changes with: (1) number and age distribution of blood donors and transfusion recipients in 2015 and (2) blood demand within specific age and patient groups. Blood donation rates closely followed the demographic changes, showing a decrease of -18% (vs projected -23%). In contrast, 2015 transfusion rates were -21.3% lower than projected. We conclude that although changes in demography are highly predictive for the blood supply, transfusion demand is strongly influenced by changes in medical practice. Given ongoing pronounced demographic change, regular monitoring of the donor/recipient age distributions and associated impact on blood demand/supply relationships is required to allow strategic planning to prevent blood shortages or overproduction.

Different routes of demographic changes in former Eastern bloc states at the turn of the 21st century based on the examples of Poland and Ukraine

Science.gov (United States)

Flaga, Małgorzata

2012-01-01

The article concerns the most important demographic processes that took place in two post-communist countries, Poland and Ukraine, after 1990. These countries differ in terms of economic changes that they have gone through so far. In case of Poland we may consider it as a success in reforming the economy, despite the fact that it caused certain negative social phenomena, e.g. large unemployment. On the other hand, in Ukraine, economic crisis was not stopped, but it is also deepening and its results have become significant modifiers of population processes. The changes in population number, natural growth and migration in both countries are the subjects of detailed analyses. They were presented in the context of the "secondary demographic transition", which Poland and Ukraine entered rapidly at the beginning of 1990, along with economic transformation and social changes.

Growth-based Theories for Declining Regions? A Note on Conceptualisations of Demographic Change for Regional Economic Development

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Anke Matuschewski

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This article aims to critically assess the economic growth paradigm, which typically underlies most approaches to regional policymaking for demographic change. While population losses, ageing and outmigration – i.e. phenomena that are addressed as demographic change – have become a matter of urgency for many European regions, most regional economic development theories remain silent about the population decline affecting the economic growth and development prospects of regions. Consequently, regional policies usually rely on the concept of economic growth, yet neglect the complexity and importance of demographic change and how it relates to the economic sphere. Due to this lack in nuance, we argue that regional policymaking fails to design adequate policy support for regions facing persistent demographic change and economic stagnation or decline as a result. Based on these observations, the paper examines a selection of regional economic development theories in search for alternative concepts of growth and development in the context of demographic change. To this aim, globalisation peripheries are introduced as a fruitful conceptual point of reference and, in combination with endogenous regional development theories, discussed as an alternative approach for regional policymaking.

The effects of demographic change on disease transmission and vaccine impact in a household structured population.

Science.gov (United States)

Geard, Nicholas; Glass, Kathryn; McCaw, James M; McBryde, Emma S; Korb, Kevin B; Keeling, Matt J; McVernon, Jodie

2015-12-01

The demographic structure of populations in both more developed and less developed countries is changing: increases in life expectancy and declining fertility have led to older populations and smaller households. The implications of these demographic changes for the spread and control of infectious diseases are not fully understood. Here we use an individual based model with realistic and dynamic age and household structure to demonstrate the marked effect that demographic change has on disease transmission at the population and household level. The decline in fertility is associated with a decrease in disease incidence and an increase in the age of first infection, even in the absence of vaccination or other control measures. Although large households become rarer as fertility decreases, we show that there is a proportionate increase in incidence of disease in these households as the accumulation of susceptible clusters increases the potential for explosive outbreaks. By modelling vaccination, we provide a direct comparison of the relative importance of demographic change and vaccination on incidence of disease. We highlight the increased risks associated with unvaccinated households in a low fertility setting if vaccine behaviour is correlated with household membership. We suggest that models that do not account for future demographic change, and especially its effect on household structure, may potentially overestimate the impact of vaccination. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental stress, resource management and demographic change in Northern Tanzania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niboye, E.P.

1999-12-01

the management of resources both at global and local levels. We found out empirically that despite the dwindling natural resource base, the people in Arumeru still maintain their demographic dynamism. For them, it is a rational thing to do. The explanation for this phenomenon is not discrete, but spans the whole range of the population-resource continuum. From the demographic transition point of view, the society has not reached the threshold where child labour is valueless. In Arumeru, the children are still valued for their labour as they participate in both agro-pastoral related income generating activities. Further, children are still old age insurers. Thus, the age long traditions which favour the persistence of high fertility regimes are still in force. Having children is still a pleasure which costs nothing and hence the family size is rarely determined by the household's income. The interplay of proximate determinants of fertility is found to have an effect on the population increase in the district. People enter into marriage unions at very young ages, while the breastfeeding duration has drastically decreased in recent years. Furthermore, postpartum abstinence is no longer observed and incidences of pathological infertility have been tremendously reduced, thanks to modern medicine. All these factors support high fertility regimes. The argument that rapid population growth always leads to environmental decline and thus forces rural economies into diminishing returns, over-utilisation of resource and pauperisation is rejected. Despite the population increase and dwindling resource base in Arumeru, food security, rural incomes and standard of living have consistently improved throughout the century. The situation in the study area somehow accommodate the Boserupian model, where population growth triggers agricultural intensification, but in this case, the forces which triggers change did not emanate from within, but were externally generated. Institutional

Rural demographic change, rising wages and the restructuring of Chinese agriculture

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Tianxiang; Yu, Wusheng; Baležentis, Tomas

2017-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify the effects of recent demographic transition and rising labor costs on agricultural production structure and pattern in China during 1998-2012. Design/methodology/approach The authors, first, theoretically discuss the effects of changing relative...

The Socio-Demographic Changes in Romania: an Analysis from the Human Development Perspective

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Mioara BORZA

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The social and demographic changes registered in recent years, at European and Romanian level, have produced some effects visible in various reference areas. By this paper, we propose to achieve an empirical analysis meant to emphasize the main socio-economic changes of the last 10 years and their influence on the human society development. Based on the inventory of statistical data referring to the socio-demographic dynamics and using a research methodology based on inductive reasoning, dynamic and dialectics analysis, we will obtain some results of research that indicate: the human development is in positive evolution, even the number of population is decreasing.

Peripheralisation: The Missing Link in Dealing with Demographic Change?

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Tim Leibert

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Demographic change is an uneven spatial process in Germany. Depopulation and ageing have become pressing issues in most rural regions. In connection with low population densities and the financial difficulties of municipalities and service providers in rural regions, these demographic trends have led to a discussion about the future provision of services of general interest and – more broadly – the postulate of equal living conditions which was for a long time the basic principle of spatial development in Germany. In this paper, we argue that the peripheralisation approach is a helpful tool to better understand how interaction of out-migration, dependence, disconnection and stigmatisation shape the future of rural regions. We also discuss the impact of peripheralisation on the development and implementation of adaptation strategies. Based on the 3R-model (retrenchment, repositioning, reorganisation, we argue that adaptation strategies can reinforce (retrenchment peripheralisation processes, but also serve as groundwork for the formulation of policies aiming at de-peripheralisation.

Demographic stagnation and decline in Spain: A cause for concern?

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Serrano-Martínez José-María

2018-03-01

Full Text Available For years, the Spanish population has been rapidly ageing, showing signs of atony and stagnation. Between 1996 and 2007, in a phase of economic growth, the entry of foreign immigrants drove a global increase in population. But after the economic recession migratory flows show negative net balances. Our objective is to explain and confirm the demographic regression suffered by Spain. We are also interested in showing how the recent and intense immigration process has failed to generate significant changes in natural demographic characteristics and trends. National censuses, published by the National Institute of Statistics (INE, are our main source of demographic data. The analysis of the most recent relevant scientific literature has allowed us to compare opinions and discuss results. The data confirm an uncertain and worrying future for the Spanish population.

Leveraging age diversity in times of demographic change: the crucial role of leadership

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janz, K.; Buengeler, C.; Eckhoff, R.A.; Homan, A.C.; Voelpel, S.C.; Scott, C.L.; Byrd, M.Y.

2012-01-01

With demographic change, organizations today are seeing changes in societal make-up translated to the composition of their workforce. In the future, younger and older employees will have to work together synergistically to achieve good performance. The authors argue that it will be largely up to

The joint effect of demographic change on growth and agglomeration

OpenAIRE

Theresa Grafeneder-Weissteiner

2011-01-01

Recently, there has been wide interest in the "economics" of population aging. Demographic change has crucial consequences for economic behavior; it e.g. implies that consumption and investment decisions vary over the life-cycle. The latter has important implications for economic growth, whereas the former is decisive for the location of economic activity as emphasized in the New Economic Geography (NEG) literature. Both growth and agglomeration processes are, however, themselves interlinked,...

Population growth, demographic change, and cultural landscapes.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodgate, G; Sage, C

1994-01-01

The inclusion of both ecological and socioeconomic components within landscapes makes possible the perception of the hierarchical character of landscape organization. A research approach is needed to conceptualize cultural landscapes as the product of interaction between society and nature. Richard Norgaard's 1984 paper on coevolutionary agricultural development attempts to meet this challenge. Coevolution is the interactive synthesis of natural and social mechanisms of change that characterize the relationship between social systems and ecosystems. The relationship between population, consumption, and environmental changes is complex. Currently industrialized countries present the biggest threat to global environmental resources. The issue of carrying capacity is the corollary of population and the environment. It is primarily the technological factor rather than population that needs to be controlled. The relationship between rich and poor countries is determined by superior economic power. An analysis of landscape change is made, tracing the coevolution of society and environment from the end of the feudal era and making comparisons with continental Europe. Over the years since 1945 the need to realize potential economies of scale has resulted in a wholesale loss of woodlands, hedgerows, and small ponds in the UK. In a global context the likely impacts of population growth and demographic change on landscapes will be influenced by such socioeconomic factors as technology and affluence; policies that ignore cause and effect; and the traditional tendency to treat the environment as a waste repository and a supply depot.

Assessing Demographic Changes and Income Inequalities: A Case Study of West Virginia

OpenAIRE

Hailu, Yohannes G.; Gebremedhin, Tesfa G.; Jackson, Randall W.

2005-01-01

This study investigates demographic change and income inequalities, and relationship between economic growth and income inequality in West Virginia. Income growth was positively related with population and employment growth, but is significantly and negatively related with income inequality. This indicates that higher income inequality is associated with slower economic growth.

Responsive survey design, demographic data collection, and models of demographic behavior.

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Axinn, William G; Link, Cynthia F; Groves, Robert M

2011-08-01

To address declining response rates and rising data-collection costs, survey methodologists have devised new techniques for using process data ("paradata") to address nonresponse by altering the survey design dynamically during data collection. We investigate the substantive consequences of responsive survey design-tools that use paradata to improve the representative qualities of surveys and control costs. By improving representation of reluctant respondents, responsive design can change our understanding of the topic being studied. Using the National Survey of Family Growth Cycle 6, we illustrate how responsive survey design can shape both demographic estimates and models of demographic behaviors based on survey data. By juxtaposing measures from regular and responsive data collection phases, we document how special efforts to interview reluctant respondents may affect demographic estimates. Results demonstrate the potential of responsive survey design to change the quality of demographic research based on survey data.

Planet earth 1984-2034: a demographic vision.

Science.gov (United States)

Bouvier, L F

1984-02-01

In recognition of 1984 as the year of both Orwell's famous futuristic novel and the International Population Conference following up the 1974 World Population Conference, this Bulletin examines the current state of world population and presents the author's speculations on what it might be 50 years from now. World population, now close to 4.8 billion and growing at 1.8%/year, is being shaped by 3 demographic phenomena: prolonged below-replacement fertility in developed nations, perhaps partly in response to the reduced need for workers in the emerging information era; rapid growth despite failing fertility in developing nations, due to earlier rapid mortality decline; and rapid urbanization in developing nations and unprecedented migration from poor to better-off nations. The author's assumptions for nondemographic factors related to population change in the next 50 years are no world war, nuclear or otherwise; global resource adequacy; rapid scientific and technological progress shared equitably; and the demise of capitalism and communism and greatly increased economic aid from advanced to less advanced nations. For 2034 the author envisages nations divided into service/information societies (4% of global population) where immigration balances low fertility to prevent population decline; industrialized nations (38% of total), with fertility close to or at replacement level and growth slowing; developing nations (43%), in sight of replacement level fertility; and least developed nations, with still critical demographic problems but only 15% of the world population. Total population will be 8.03 billion, but growth will be down to 0.8%/year and global zero growth is possible in another 50 years. This relatively optimistic scenario for 2034 will only be possible if mankind acts to see that the stated nondemographic assumptions are borne out.

Socio-demographic impacts on lane-changing response time and distance in work zone with Drivers' Smart Advisory System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qing Li

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Lane-changing behavior is an important component of traffic simulation. A lane-changing action is normally confined to a decision-making process of the task, and the action itself is sometimes assumed as an instantaneous event. Besides, the lane-changing behavior is based mostly on observable positions and speeds of other vehicles, rather than on vehicles' intentions. In practice, changing one lane requires about 5–6 s to complete. Existing lane-changing models do not comprehensively consider drivers' response to work zone lane-changing signs (or other related messages, if any. Furthermore, drivers' socio-demographics are normally not taken into account. With regard to this, fuzzy logic-based lane-changing models that consider drivers' socio-demographics were developed to improve the realism of lane-changing maneuvers in work zones. Drivers' Smart Advisory System (DSAS messages were provided as one of the scenarios. Drivers' responses, including reactions to work zone signs and DSAS messages, and actions to change lane, were investigated. Drivers' socio-demographic factors were primary independent variables, while Lane-Changing Response Time (LCRT and Distance (LCRD were defined as output variables. The model validation process yielded acceptable error ranges. To illustrate how these models can be used in traffic simulation, the LCRT and LCRD in work zones were estimated for five geo-locations with different socio-demographic specifications. Results show that the DSAS is able to instruct all drivers to prepare and change lanes earlier, thereby shortening the duration of changing lanes. Educational background and age are essential variables, whereas the impacts of gender on the output variables are indistinctive.

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change provides data and information on global and regional land cover change in raster format for...

Analysis of changes of demographic parameters in different groups of Chernigiv region population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gridzhuk, M.Yu.

1998-01-01

To perform comparison of the changes in different social and age groups of the population of Chernigiv region, Kozeletsky district in particular, which was exposed to considerable radioactive contamination, during the recent 20 years (beginning from 1977). The Chernobyl accident together with social and other unfavorable factors caused negative demographic changes in the contaminated districts. Reduction in the number of different social groups of the population is expected

Modern-Day Demographic Processes in Central Europe and Their Potential Interactions with Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Bański, Jerzy

2013-01-01

The aim of this article is to evaluate the effect of contemporary transformations in the population of Central European countries on climate change, in addition to singling out the primary points of interaction between demographic processes and the climate. In analyzing the interactions between climate and demographics, we can formulate three basic hypotheses regarding the region in question: 1) as a result of current demographic trends in Central Europe, the influence of the region on its climate will probably diminish, 2) the importance of the "climatically displaced" in global migratory movements will increase, and some of those concerned will move to Central Europe, 3) the contribution of the region to global food security will increase. In the last decade most of what comprises the region of Central Europe has reported a decline in population growth and a negative migration balance. As a process, this loss of population may have a positive effect on the environment and the climate. We can expect ongoing climate change to intensify migration processes, particularly from countries outside Europe. Interactions between climate and demographic processes can also be viewed in the context of food security. The global warming most sources foresee for the coming decades is the process most likely to result in spatial polarization of food production in agriculture. Central Europe will then face the challenge of assuring and improving food security, albeit this time on a global scale.

Demographic Changes of Hispanic Populations and Hispanic Student Enrollment in Texas Community Colleges: A Literature Review

Science.gov (United States)

Hernandez, Jack; Slate, John R.; Joyner, Sheila A.

2015-01-01

In this literature review, Hispanic demographic changes in the United States and in Texas are examined. Hispanics have accounted for large changes in population, population change, and proportion of population. Accordingly, the literature was reviewed regarding Hispanic immigrants, both authorized and non-authorized immigrants. The issue of…

Demographic Changes in the U.S. into the Twenty-First Century: Their Impact on Sport Marketing.

Science.gov (United States)

Hofacre, Susan; And Others

1992-01-01

Issues confronting sport marketers as U.S. demographics change include more older people, ethnic groups, working women, and minorities; television hours watched; and changes in family makeup. As the changes affect marketing, sport marketing will have to become more efficient in defining and reaching different markets. (SM)

SECULAR GROWTH AND MATURATION CHANGES IN HUNGARY IN RELATION TO SOCIOECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES.

Science.gov (United States)

Bodzsar, Eva B; Zsakai, Annamaria; Mascie-Taylor, Nicholas

2016-03-01

This paper analyses the secular changes in the body development patterns of Hungarian children between the 1910s and the beginning of the 2000s in relation to socioeconomic and demographic changes in the country. Individual growth data of children were available from two national growth studies (1983-86, 2003-06), while sample-size weighted means of children's body dimensions were collected through regional studies between the 1920s and 1970s. Gross domestic product, Gini index, life expectancy at birth and under-5 mortality rate were used to assess the changes in economic status, income inequalities of the society and the population's general health status, respectively. Secular changes in food consumption habits were also examined. The positive Hungarian secular changes in socioeconomic status were associated with a continuous increase in children's body dimensions. The negative socioeconomic changes reflected only in wartime and post-war periods of children's growth, and the considerable socioeconomic changes at the beginning of the 1990s did not appear to influence the positive trend in children's growth. The positive secular trend in stature and body mass did not level off at the beginning of the 2000s: the socioeconomic conditions that support optimal growth and maturation could improve in Hungary.

Will Climate Change, Genetic and Demographic Variation or Rat Predation Pose the Greatest Risk for Persistence of an Altitudinally Distributed Island Endemic?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alison Shapcott

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Species endemic to mountains on oceanic islands are subject to a number of existing threats (in particular, invasive species along with the impacts of a rapidly changing climate. The Lord Howe Island endemic palm Hedyscepe canterburyana is restricted to two mountains above 300 m altitude. Predation by the introduced Black Rat (Rattus rattus is known to significantly reduce seedling recruitment. We examined the variation in Hedyscepe in terms of genetic variation, morphology, reproductive output and demographic structure, across an altitudinal gradient. We used demographic data to model population persistence under climate change predictions of upward range contraction incorporating long-term climatic records for Lord Howe Island. We also accounted for alternative levels of rat predation into the model to reflect management options for control. We found that Lord Howe Island is getting warmer and drier and quantified the degree of temperature change with altitude (0.9 °C per 100 m. For H. canterburyana, differences in development rates, population structure, reproductive output and population growth rate were identified between altitudes. In contrast, genetic variation was high and did not vary with altitude. There is no evidence of an upward range contraction as was predicted and recruitment was greatest at lower altitudes. Our models predicted slow population decline in the species and that the highest altitude populations are under greatest threat of extinction. Removal of rat predation would significantly enhance future persistence of this species.

[Demographic and epidemiologic changes in Colombia during the 20th century: facts and explanations].

Science.gov (United States)

Carmona-Fonseca, Jaime

2005-12-01

Research, education, organization and administration activities in health need an updated panoramic view of demographic and epidemiologic changes and tendencies. To describe the main changes in demography and epidemiology during the 20th century in Colombia and to comment on the causative models used by some authors. A descriptive and longitudinal study. Second hand information from various sources was used. The final section of the review includes a discussion on the interpretation of data given by the original authors. In 1905-2005, population increased from 4,737,588 inhabitants to 48,864,013. The age distribution of the population showed dramatic changes: the true pyramid, as seen in 1951, changed into a distorted figure (no apparent differences between 0 and 14 years of age). Both children and youngsters lost representation on age structure, while adult and older individuals gain representation. During 1905-1938, the birth rate was 43% and by the end of 2005 it will be 22%. Mortality dropped a 75%, falling from 23% in 1905-1912 to 6% in 1885-1993, but it rose a 33% after 1993, and will reach 8.3% in 2010. In 1938, the urban population was 31% and in 2002, 72%. Mortality discriminated by cause changed in a significant manner during the second half of the 20th century. Infectious-parasitic and perinatal diseases, the main cause of death by the end of the 1960-1969 decade, lost importance on behalf of degenerative diseases, accidents and homicides which are now the most frequent. Conclusions. Our present population density is relatively low. The demographic change has been profound but the velocity has been more important. The aging of population has serious implications for the country. These notable modifications in Colombian families raise challenges in all social fields. The demographic and epidemiological changes (structure and level of morbimortality) require a serious analysis, and easy explanations do not have to be accepted without repairs.

Impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions for climate change: a path analysis with mediating effects of attitudinal variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Masud, Muhammad Mehedi; Akhatr, Rulia; Nasrin, Shamima; Adamu, Ibrahim Mohammed

2017-12-01

Socio-demographic factors play a significant role in increasing the individual's climate change awareness and in setting a favorable individual attitude towards its mitigation. To better understand how the adversative effects of climate change can be mitigated, this study attempts to investigate the impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions of the individuals (MAOI) on climate change. Qualitative data were collected from a face-to-face survey of 360 respondents in the Kuala Lumpur region of Malaysia through a close-ended questionnaire. Analysis was conducted on the mediating effects of attitudinal variables through the path model by using the SEM. Findings indicate that the socio-demographic factors such as gender, age, education, income, and ethnicity can greatly influence the individual's awareness, attitude, risk perception, and knowledge of climate change issues. The results drawn from this study also revealed that the attitudinal factors act as a mediating effect between the socio-demographic factors and the MAOI, thereby, indicating that both the socio-demographic factors and the attitudinal factors have significant effects on the MAOI towards climate change. The outcome of this study can help policy makers and other private organizations to decide on the appropriate actions to take in managing climate change effects. These actions which encompass improving basic climate change education and making the public more aware of the local dimensions of climate change are important for harnessing public engagement and support that can also stimulate climate change awareness and promote mitigating actions to n protect the environment from the impact of climate change.

Method for producing rapid pH changes

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, J.H.; Campillo, A.J.; Shapiro, S.L.; Winn, K.R.

A method of initiating a rapid pH change in a solution comprises irradiating the solution with an intense flux of electromagnetic radiation of a frequency which produces a substantial pK change to a compound in solution. To optimize the resulting pH change, the compound being irradiated in solution should have an excited state lifetime substantially longer than the time required to establish an excited state acid-base equilibrium in the solution. Desired pH changes can be accomplished in nanoseconds or less by means of picosecond pulses of laser radiation.

Long-term culture change related to rapid response system implementation.

Science.gov (United States)

Stevens, Jennifer; Johansson, Anna; Lennes, Inga; Hsu, Douglas; Tess, Anjala; Howell, Michael

2014-12-01

Increasing attention to patient safety in training hospitals may come at the expense of trainee autonomy and professional growth. This study sought to examine changes in medical trainees' self-reported behaviour after the institution-wide implementation of a rapid response system. We conducted a two-point cross-sectional survey of medical trainees in 2006, during the implementation of a rapid response system, and in 2010, in a single academic medical centre. A novel instrument was used to measure trainee likelihood of calling for supervisory assistance, perception of autonomy, and comfort in managing decompensating patients. Non-parametric tests to assess for change were used and year of training was evaluated as an effect modifier. Response rates were 38% in 2006 and 70% in 2010. After 5 years of the full implementation of the rapid response system, residents were significantly more likely to report calling their attending physicians for assistance (rising from 40% to 65% of relevant situations; p autonomy at 5 years after the implementation of the rapid response system. These changes were mirrored in the actual use of the rapid response system, which increased by 41% during the 5-year period after adjustment for patient volume (p < 0.0001). A primary team-focused implementation of a rapid response system was associated with durable changes in resident physicians' reported behaviour, including increased comfort with involving more experienced physicians and managing unstable patients. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatial Pattern and Scale Influence Invader Demographic Response to Simulated Precipitation Change in an Annual Grassland Community.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meghan J Skaer Thomason

Full Text Available It is important to predict which invasive species will benefit from future changes in climate, and thereby identify those invaders that need particular attention and prioritization of management efforts. Because establishment, persistence, and spread determine invasion success, this prediction requires detailed demographic information. Explicit study of the impact of pattern on demographic response is particularly important for species that are naturally patchy, such as the invasive grass, Aegilops triuncialis. In the northern California Coast Range, where climate change may increase or decrease mean annual rainfall, we conducted a field experiment to understand the interaction of climate change and local-scale patterning on the demography of A. triuncialis. We manipulated precipitation (reduced, ambient, or augmented, seed density, and seeding pattern. Demographic and environmental data were collected for three years following initial seeding. Pattern and scale figure prominently in the demographic response of A. triuncialis to precipitation manipulation. Pattern interacts with precipitation and seeding density in its influence on per-plant seed output. Although per-plot seed production was highest when seeds were not aggregated, per-plant seed output was higher in aggregated patches. Results suggest aggregation of invasive A. triuncialis reduces the detrimental impact of interspecific competition in its invaded community, and that interspecific competition per se has a stronger impact than intraspecific competition.

Demographic change in the northern forest

Science.gov (United States)

Kenneth M. Johnson; Susan I. Stewart; Miranda H. Mockrin

2012-01-01

The Northern Forest spans more than 26 million acres across Maine, New Hampshire, New York, and Vermont. With densely settled urban cores, sprawling suburbs, struggling industrial and forest products towns, fast growing recreational areas, and isolated rural villages, the region includes many of the diverse strands that together compose the demographic fabric of the...

CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS AND INTIMATE RELATION PATTERNS AMONG INDIAN DIASPORA IN DENMARK

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Singla, Rashmi; Varma, Ambika

2018-01-01

Indians, mostly skilled, are invited to fill gaps in the Danish labour market in the last decade, changing the demographics and dynamics of the Indian diaspora. The paper covers this diaspora, also historically, focusing on the psychosocial aspects of transnationalism and intimate relationship...... formation. The theoretical framework combines life course perspective, processes of interconnectedness and inclusion/exclusion Studies of Indian couples and ‘mixed couples’ consisting of Indians in exogamous marriages with Danish spouses, form the empirical part. The results show Indian diaspora...

Principal Preparedness for Leading in Demographically Changing Schools: Where Is the Social Justice Training?

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Catherine M.; Martin, Barbara N.

2015-01-01

This multi-case study sought to construct meaning using a cultural capital lens in relation to educational leadership preparation programs building the capacities of social justice leaders in demographically changing schools. Data revealed principals' perceptions about preparation, expectations and general beliefs and assumptions related to…

The demographic transition: an attempt to reformulate a population theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Hofsten, E

1981-01-01

In this effort to reformulate the demographic transition theory, attention is directed to the following: Malthus and Karl Marx's criticism of his principle of population; the 1st stage of transition, i.e., high mortality, high fertility, and slow population growth; the 2nd stage of declining mortality; the 3rd stage of declining fertility; the 4th stage when mortality and fertility are both low; the growth potential; and the demographic transition in the 3rd world countries. The demographic transition theory has become popular among demographers, economists, historians, and others interested in studying the development of population over time since the end of World War 2. This interest has most likely been created by the anxiety over the population explosion in the 3rd world countries. Transition has made demographers believe that the period of rapid population growth will be automatically succeeded by a period of more or less constant population size. The question that arises is whether it is as simple as that. Demographic transition has to a great extent taken the place of Malthus' principle of population as a general theory of population. Demographic transition appears to describe in a satisfactory way the development of population which all currently industrialized countires have passed through, when going from the preindustrial to the present industrialized stage. The objectives to demographic transition as a general theory are considered. Some of the factors which have accounted for the decline in fertility in Europe may also apply to the 3rd world countries. 1 such factor is the effect of reduced infant and child mortality on the individual level. The fertility decline, caused by reduced infant and child mortality may, however, be of limited size. The great amount of unemployment in the 3rd world may affect fertility in a downward direction. The fertility decline in Europe occurred simultaneously with an industrialization process, which gradually covered the

Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species.

Science.gov (United States)

Pomara, Lars Y; LeDee, Olivia E; Martin, Karl J; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2014-07-01

Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range-wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back-cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long-term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long-term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high-conservation concern. Range-wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal-limited species. Climate change vulnerability

The Background to Language Change in Hong Kong.

Science.gov (United States)

Harrison, Godfrey; So, Lydia K. H.

1996-01-01

Seeks to link the rapid pace of societal change in Hong Kong over the past 50 years with changing patterns of language use there. Shows how the country has changed demographically, economically, politically, socially, and technologically. (16 references) (Author/CK)

Holocene Demographic Changes and the Emergence of Complex Societies in Prehistoric Australia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alan N Williams

Full Text Available A continental-scale model of Holocene Australian hunter-gatherer demography and mobility is generated using radiocarbon data and geospatial techniques. Results show a delayed expansion and settlement of much of Australia following the termination of the late Pleistocene until after 9,000 years ago (or 9ka. The onset of the Holocene climatic optimum (9-6ka coincides with rapid expansion, growth and establishment of regional populations across ~75% of Australia, including much of the arid zone. This diffusion from isolated Pleistocene refugia provides a mechanism for the synchronous spread of pan-continental archaeological and linguistic attributes at this time (e.g. Pama-Nyungan language, Panaramitee art style, backed artefacts. We argue longer patch residence times were possible at the end of the optimum, resulting in a shift to more sedentary lifestyles and establishment of low-level food production in some parts of the continent. The onset of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO; 4.5-2ka restricted low-level food production, and resulted in population fragmentation, abandonment of marginal areas, and reduction in ranging territory of ~26%. Importantly, climate amelioration brought about by more pervasive La Niña conditions (post-2ka, resulted in an intensification of the mobility strategies and technological innovations that were developed in the early- to mid-Holocene. These changes resulted in population expansion and utilization of the entire continent. We propose that it was under these demographically packed conditions that the complex social and religious societies observed at colonial contact were formed.

Holocene Demographic Changes and the Emergence of Complex Societies in Prehistoric Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Alan N.; Ulm, Sean; Turney, Chris S. M.; Rohde, David; White, Gentry

2015-01-01

A continental-scale model of Holocene Australian hunter-gatherer demography and mobility is generated using radiocarbon data and geospatial techniques. Results show a delayed expansion and settlement of much of Australia following the termination of the late Pleistocene until after 9,000 years ago (or 9ka). The onset of the Holocene climatic optimum (9-6ka) coincides with rapid expansion, growth and establishment of regional populations across ~75% of Australia, including much of the arid zone. This diffusion from isolated Pleistocene refugia provides a mechanism for the synchronous spread of pan-continental archaeological and linguistic attributes at this time (e.g. Pama-Nyungan language, Panaramitee art style, backed artefacts). We argue longer patch residence times were possible at the end of the optimum, resulting in a shift to more sedentary lifestyles and establishment of low-level food production in some parts of the continent. The onset of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO; 4.5-2ka) restricted low-level food production, and resulted in population fragmentation, abandonment of marginal areas, and reduction in ranging territory of ~26%. Importantly, climate amelioration brought about by more pervasive La Niña conditions (post-2ka), resulted in an intensification of the mobility strategies and technological innovations that were developed in the early- to mid-Holocene. These changes resulted in population expansion and utilization of the entire continent. We propose that it was under these demographically packed conditions that the complex social and religious societies observed at colonial contact were formed. PMID:26083101

Rapid Communication: seniority changing transitions in yrast states ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Bhoomika Maheshwari

2017-10-26

Oct 26, 2017 ... Rapid Communication: v = 2 seniority changing ... has been extensively used to understand various system- .... states. This understanding supports the previous inter- ..... Financial support from the Ministry of Human Resource.

Analysing Changes in Discursive Constructions of Rural Areas in the Context of Demographic Change. Towards Counterpoints in the Dominant Discourse on “Dying Villages”

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriela B. Christmann

2016-01-01

For the conceptualisation of the empirical observations, the article is based on the assumption that it is in communications and in public discourses – in particular specific recurrent contents on rural areas and demographic change – that specific knowledge elements and reality constructions of rural areas emerge and stabilise within society. This assumption includes the idea that when the content of public discourses on rural areas change, for example through small-scale discursive counterpoints, it is possible for new knowledge elements and new constructions of reality to develop. Against this background, the approach of a (new discursive construction of spaces is selected as theoretical starting point for the analysis. By referring to the communicative-constructivism approach and by integrating the sociology of knowledge approach to discourse, it is perfectly suited for theoretically spelling out changing discursive constructions of rural areas in the context of demographic change.

From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden? : Regional Trends of Population Aging in Russia

OpenAIRE

Matytsin, Mikhail; Moorty, Lalita; Richter, Kaspar

2015-01-01

Do regions with higher working age populations grow faster? This paper examines this question using data from Russian regions and finds evidence that demographic trends influence regional growth convergence. In other words, keeping other factors constant, poorer regions grow faster than richer regions, and some of the growth convergence is explained by demographic changes: faster growth in...

Major rapid weight loss induces changes in cardiac repolarization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vedel-Larsen, Esben; Iepsen, Eva Winning; Lundgren, Julie

2016-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Obesity is associated with increased all-cause mortality, but weight loss may not decrease cardiovascular events. In fact, very low calorie diets have been linked to arrhythmias and sudden death. The QT interval is the standard marker for cardiac repolarization, but T-wave morphology...... analysis has been suggested as a more sensitive method to identify changes in cardiac repolarization. We examined the effect of a major and rapid weight loss on T-wave morphology. METHODS AND RESULTS: Twenty-six individuals had electrocardiograms (ECG) taken before and after eight weeks of weight loss......A1c (pweight loss induces changes in cardiac repolarization. Monitoring of MCS during calorie restriction makes it possible to detect repolarization changes with higher discriminative power than the QT-interval during major rapid weight...

Demographic structure and macroeconomic trends

OpenAIRE

Aksoy, Yunus; Basso, H.S.; Smith, Ronald; Grasl, Tobias

2018-01-01

We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long term\\ud trends of key macroeconomic variables using a Panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970-2014. The panel data variation assists the identification of demographic effects, while the dynamic structure,\\ud incorporating multiple channels of influence, uncovers long-term effects.\\ud We propose a theoretical model, relating demographics, innovation and\\ud growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current\\ud...

The Rapid Ice Sheet Change Observatory (RISCO)

Science.gov (United States)

Morin, P.; Howat, I. M.; Ahn, Y.; Porter, C.; McFadden, E. M.

2010-12-01

The recent expansion of observational capacity from space has revealed dramatic, rapid changes in the Earth’s ice cover. These discoveries have fundamentally altered how scientists view ice-sheet change. Instead of just slow changes in snow accumulation and melting over centuries or millennia, important changes can occur in sudden events lasting only months, weeks, or even a single day. Our understanding of these short time- and space-scale processes, which hold important implications for future global sea level rise, has been impeded by the low temporal and spatial resolution, delayed sensor tasking, incomplete coverage, inaccessibility and/or high cost of data available to investigators. New cross-agency partnerships and data access policies provide the opportunity to dramatically improve the resolution of ice sheet observations by an order of magnitude, from timescales of months and distances of 10’s of meters, to days and meters or less. Advances in image processing technology also enable application of currently under-utilized datasets. The infrastructure for systematically gathering, processing, analyzing and distributing these data does not currently exist. Here we present the development of a multi-institutional, multi-platform observatory for rapid ice change with the ultimate objective of helping to elucidate the relevant timescales and processes of ice sheet dynamics and response to climate change. The Rapid Ice Sheet Observatory (RISCO) gathers observations of short time- and space-scale Cryosphere events and makes them easily accessible to investigators, media and general public. As opposed to existing data centers, which are structured to archive and distribute diverse types of raw data to end users with the specialized software and skills to analyze them, RISCO focuses on three types of geo-referenced raster (image) data products in a format immediately viewable with commonly available software. These three products are (1) sequences of images

Influence of demographic changes on the impact of vaccination against varicella and herpes zoster in Germany - a mathematical modelling study.

Science.gov (United States)

Horn, Johannes; Damm, Oliver; Greiner, Wolfgang; Hengel, Hartmut; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E; Siedler, Anette; Ultsch, Bernhard; Weidemann, Felix; Wichmann, Ole; Karch, André; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T

2018-01-09

Epidemiological studies suggest that reduced exposure to varicella might lead to an increased risk for herpes zoster (HZ). Reduction of exposure to varicella is a consequence of varicella vaccination but also of demographic changes. We analyzed how the combination of vaccination programs and demographic dynamics will affect the epidemiology of varicella and HZ in Germany over the next 50 years. We used a deterministic dynamic compartmental model to assess the impact of different varicella and HZ vaccination strategies on varicella and HZ epidemiology in three demographic scenarios, namely the projected population for Germany, the projected population additionally accounting for increased immigration as observed in 2015/2016, and a stationary population. Projected demographic changes alone result in an increase of annual HZ cases by 18.3% and a decrease of varicella cases by 45.7% between 1990 and 2060. Independently of the demographic scenario, varicella vaccination reduces the cumulative number of varicella cases until 2060 by approximately 70%, but also increases HZ cases by 10%. Unlike the currently licensed live attenuated HZ vaccine, the new subunit vaccine candidate might completely counteract this effect. Relative vaccine effects were consistent across all demographic scenarios. Demographic dynamics will be a major determinant of HZ epidemiology in the next 50 years. While stationary population models are appropriate for assessing vaccination impact, models incorporating realistic population structures allow a direct comparison to surveillance data and can thus provide additional input for immunization decision-making and resource planning.

Adjustment, social sectors, and demographic change in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Ekouevi, K; Adepoju, A

1995-01-01

This discussion concludes that the economic crises of the 1980s resulted in a halt to the social and economic development of sub-Saharan Africa. Employment, health, and education sectors all deteriorated under structural adjustment programs (SAPs) and poor economic performance. SAPs are considered inadequate solutions to long-term problems. Economic crises were found to affect countries differently in their demographic impact. Delayed demographic transition occurred both through economic development as a prerequisite and as a result of poor economic development. Case studies of each country are considered the appropriate geographic unit of analysis of demographic change rather than regional or comparative studies. The economic crises in sub-Saharan Africa occurred due to both external (commodity prices, high real interest rates, and decreasing net capital flows) and internal distortions (strategies of development such as import substitution, neglect of the agricultural sector, and government control of prices and trade). The unfavorable external context reduced export prices and earnings while increasing the costs of imports. Internal controls were detrimental to farmers. During the 1970s and 1980s African countries experienced declines in both the volume and value of exports, increases in import volume, and imbalances in the balance of payments. Large domestic borrowing and foreign borrowing was done by governments, which was at the expense of the private sector. Economic management and corruption were rampant. SAPs restrained demand, reduced public expenditures, adjusted exchange rates, contracted the size of the public sector, liberalized trade, deregulated the interest rate, stimulated domestic production, and used market forces for balancing optimum allocation of resources. SAPs were the fix for trade imbalances and government debt. Development was slowed or stopped. During 1980-87 spending on health care, education, and infrastructure was drastically reduced

The changing demographic pattern of multiple sclerosis epidemiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Koch-Henriksen, Nils; Sørensen, Per Soelberg

2010-05-01

The uneven distribution of multiple sclerosis (MS) across populations can be attributed to differences in genes and the environment and their interaction. Prevalence and incidence surveys could be affected by inaccuracy of diagnosis and ascertainment, and prevalence also depends on survival. These sources of error might play a part in the geographical and temporal variations. Our literature search and meta-regression analyses indicated an almost universal increase in prevalence and incidence of MS over time; they challenge the well accepted theory of a latitudinal gradient of incidence of MS in Europe and North America, while this gradient is still apparent for Australia and New Zealand; and suggest a general, although not ubiquitous, increase in incidence of MS in females. The latter observation should prompt epidemiological studies to focus on changes in lifestyle in females. New insights into gene-environment and gene-gene interactions complicate interpretations of demographic epidemiology and have made obsolete the idea of simple causative associations between genes or the environment and MS. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Knowledge Management Impacts on Organizational Proficiency in a Changing Demographic Nuclear Industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heler, D.; Marco, J. A.

2016-01-01

Full text: The US nuclear energy industry has focused on workforce development and planning efforts over the past decade in anticipation of a large number of retirements taking place. Efforts by the US nuclear industry to replace retiring workers with younger staff to close the knowledge gap and improve organizational proficiency have started. This is resulting in a bimodal workforce distribution, which means that the industry has two workforce peaks. The 2015 Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) Workforce Pipeline Survey results illustrate a significant number of experienced and young professionals, with fewer employees in the mid-career age group. This workforce distribution can pose a challenge for US nuclear industry to ensure it has effectively implemented knowledge management elements (People, Process, and Technology) to improve organizational proficiency and maintain critical skill sets. This technical brief will examine how one US nuclear plant performance dropped, which in part was a result of a significant demographic shift in their organizations. In addition, the paper will explore the challenge organizations may have as they undergo demographic changes without proper knowledge management programmes in place. (author

Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brian C. O' Neill

2006-08-09

This report describes results of the research project on "Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics". The overall objective of this project was to improve projections of energy demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions by taking into account demographic factors currently not incorporated in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of global climate change. We proposed to examine the potential magnitude of effects on energy demand of changes in the composition of populations by household characteristics for three countries: the U.S., China, and Indonesia. For each country, we planned to analyze household energy use survey data to estimate relationships between household characteristics and energy use; develop a new set of detailed household projections for each country; and combine these analyses to produce new projections of energy demand illustrating the potential importance of consideration of households.

Major Demographic Changes in Bangladesh and their Socio-economic Correlates: Analysis of Trends

OpenAIRE

Mohammad, Hossain; Tisdell, Clement A.

2003-01-01

Catalogues the demographic changes in Bangladesh during the period 1975-2000 and examines how they relate to key socio-economic attributes. Trends are examined in population growth, growth of the working age population, women’s workforce participation, age-dependency ratio, female-male ratio, longevity, fertility, mortality and mean age at first marriage. Bangladesh has made significant breakthroughs in all these areas, a feat not matched by most other South Asian countries, but comparable wi...

Towards thresholds of disaster management performance under demographic change: exploring functional relationships using agent-based modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Dressler

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Effective disaster management is a core feature for the protection of communities against natural disasters such as floods. Disaster management organizations (DMOs are expected to contribute to ensuring this protection. However, what happens when their resources to cope with a flood are at stake or the intensity and frequency of the event exceeds their capacities? Many cities in the Free State of Saxony, Germany, were strongly hit by several floods in the last years and are additionally challenged by demographic change, with an ageing society and out-migration leading to population shrinkage in many parts of Saxony. Disaster management, which is mostly volunteer-based in Germany, is particularly affected by this change, leading to a loss of members. We propose an agent-based simulation model that acts as a "virtual lab" to explore the impact of various changes on disaster management performance. Using different scenarios we examine the impact of changes in personal resources of DMOs, their access to operation relevant information, flood characteristics as well as differences between geographic regions. A loss of DMOs and associated manpower caused by demographic change has the most profound impact on the performance. Especially in rural, upstream regions population decline in combination with very short lead times can put disaster management performance at risk.

Demographic Trends: Impact on Schools

Science.gov (United States)

Chong, Sylvia N. Y.; Cheah, Horn Mun

2010-01-01

Background: Singapore is experiencing great demographic change. These demographic trends show fewer young people and declining birth rates, greater longevity for ageing generations and an increase in the number of non-Singaporean residents. Statistics also show that more than half of the total population increase in the last decades was…

Ecosystem stewardship: sustainability strategies for a rapidly changing planet

Science.gov (United States)

F. Stuart Chapin; Stephen R. Carpenter; Gary P. Kofinas; Carl Folke; Nick Abel; William C. Clark; Per Olsson; D. Mark Stafford Smith; Brian Walker; Oran R. Young; Fikret Berkes; Reinette Biggs; J. Morgan Grove; Rosamond L. Naylor; Evelyn Pinkerton; Will Steffen; Frederick J. Swanson

2010-01-01

Ecosystem stewardship is an action-oriented framework intended to foster the social-ecological sustainability of a rapidly changing planet. Recent developments identify three strategies that make optimal use of current understanding in an environment of inevitable uncertainty and abrupt change: reducing the magnitude of, and exposure and sensitivity to, known stresses...

Climate change underlies global demographic, genetic, and cultural transitions in pre-Columbian southern Peru.

Science.gov (United States)

Fehren-Schmitz, Lars; Haak, Wolfgang; Mächtle, Bertil; Masch, Florian; Llamas, Bastien; Cagigao, Elsa Tomasto; Sossna, Volker; Schittek, Karsten; Isla Cuadrado, Johny; Eitel, Bernhard; Reindel, Markus

2014-07-01

Several archaeological studies in the Central Andes have pointed at the temporal coincidence of climatic fluctuations (both long- and short-term) and episodes of cultural transition and changes of socioeconomic structures throughout the pre-Columbian period. Although most scholars explain the connection between environmental and cultural changes by the impact of climatic alterations on the capacities of the ecosystems inhabited by pre-Columbian cultures, direct evidence for assumed demographic consequences is missing so far. In this study, we address directly the impact of climatic changes on the spatial population dynamics of the Central Andes. We use a large dataset of pre-Columbian mitochondrial DNA sequences from the northern Rio Grande de Nasca drainage (RGND) in southern Peru, dating from ∼840 BC to 1450 AD. Alternative demographic scenarios are tested using Bayesian serial coalescent simulations in an approximate Bayesian computational framework. Our results indicate migrations from the lower coastal valleys of southern Peru into the Andean highlands coincident with increasing climate variability at the end of the Nasca culture at ∼640 AD. We also find support for a back-migration from the highlands to the coast coincident with droughts in the southeastern Andean highlands and improvement of climatic conditions on the coast after the decline of the Wari and Tiwanaku empires (∼1200 AD), leading to a genetic homogenization in the RGND and probably southern Peru as a whole.

Potential (mis)match?: Marriage Markets amidst Socio-Demographic Change in India, 2005–2050

Science.gov (United States)

Kashyap, Ridhi; Esteve, Albert; García-Román, Joan

2015-01-01

We explore the impact of socio-demographic change on marriage patterns in India by examining the hypothetical consequences of applying three sets of marriage pairing propensities – contemporary patterns by age, by age and education, and changing propensities that allow for greater educational homogamy and reduced educational asymmetries – to future population projections. Future population prospects for India indicate three trends that will impact marriage patterns: i) female-deficit in sex ratios at birth; ii) declining birth cohort size; iii) female educational expansion. Existing literature posits declining marriage rates for men arising from skewed sex ratios at birth (SRB) in India’s population. In addition to skewed SRBs, India’s population will experience female educational expansion in the coming decades. Female educational expansion and its impact on marriage patterns must be jointly considered with demographic changes, given educational differentials and asymmetries in union formation that exist in India, as across much of the world. We systematize contemporary pairing propensities using data from the 2005–2006 Indian National Family Health Survey and the 2004 Socio-Economic Survey and apply these and the third set of changing propensities to IIASA/VID multi-state population projections by educational attainment using an iterative longitudinal projection procedure. If today’s age patterns of marriage are viewed against age-sex population composition until 2050, men experience declining marriage prevalence. However, when education is included, women, particularly those with higher education experience a more salient rise in non-marriage. Significant changes in pairing patterns towards greater levels of educational homogamy and gender symmetry can counteract a marked rise in non-marriage. PMID:25604846

Which came first, people or pollution? Assessing the disparate siting and post-siting demographic change hypotheses of environmental injustice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohai, Paul; Saha, Robin

2015-01-01

Although a large body of quantitative environmental justice research exists, only a handful of studies have examined the processes by which racial and socioeconomic disparities in the location of polluting industrial facilities can occur. These studies have had mixed results, we contend, principally because of methodological differences, that is, the use of the unit-hazard coincidence method as compared to distance-based methods. This study is the first national-level environmental justice study to conduct longitudinal analyses using distance-based methods. Our purposes are to: (1) determine whether disparate siting, post-siting demographic change, or a combination of the two created present-day disparities; (2) test related explanations; and (3) determine whether the application of distance-based methods helps resolve the inconsistent findings of previous research. We used a national database of commercial hazardous waste facilities sited from 1966 to 1995 and examined the demographic composition of host neighborhoods around the time of siting and demographic changes that occurred after siting. We found strong evidence of disparate siting for facilities sited in all time periods. Although we found some evidence of post-siting demographic changes, they were mostly a continuation of changes that occurred in the decade or two prior to siting, suggesting that neighborhood transition serves to attract noxious facilities rather than the facilities themselves attracting people of color and low income populations. Our findings help resolve inconsistencies among the longitudinal studies and builds on the evidence from other subnational studies that used distance-based methods. We conclude that racial discrimination and sociopolitical explanations (i.e., the proposition that siting decisions follow the ‘path of least resistance’) best explain present-day inequities. (letter)

Demographic upheavals in the former USSR.

Science.gov (United States)

Haub, C

1995-01-01

Fertility and life expectancy have changed since the breakup of the Soviet republics in 1991 and continue to change very rapidly. Before 1991, the USSR was the fastest growing developed country in the world. Annual growth rates in the mid-1980s were 0.9% compared to only 0.1% in Europe or 1.1% in the US. Immigration did not greatly affect the USSR's growth rate. By 1993, the population had declined in 8 of the 15 former republics. Deaths exceeded births in Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Estonia, and Latvia, followed by Lithuania in 1994. The last census was conducted in 1989. Fertility declined in Russia from 1.9 in 1990 to 1.4 in 1993. Fertility has been low in Lithuania at 1.7, in the Ukraine at 1.6, in Latvia at 1.5, and in Estonia at 1.4. Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan have experienced fertility decline, which was affected by emigration to Russia and other countries after 1990. 25 million Russians have resided in the former republics in 1990. In Kazakhstan, the 160,000 more births than deaths were offset by 200,000 emigrants. Central republics with higher fertility experienced declines after 1990; for example, Kyrgyzstan declined from 3.7 in 1990 to 3.3 in 1993. Life expectancy for males in Russia in 1993 was 58.9 years, which was a decline from 63.8 years in 1990. About 50% of the decline in life expectancy was due to circulatory diseases, and about 25% was due to external causes such as accidents, suicide, and alcoholism. Infant mortality has been increasing since 1990; for example, it increased in the Ukraine from 12.9 in 1990 to 14.1 in 1992. Russia's population in 1993 experienced 700,000 more deaths than births. The demographic impact will be declining school enrollments and smaller employment among the working population to support the aged. The change to a market economy has been uneven in Russia, where it has advanced more rapidly than in the republics. It is unclear whether the declining birth rate and increasing mortality rates will continue, but

Inferring the demographic history from DNA sequences: An importance sampling approach based on non-homogeneous processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Ait Kaci Azzou, S; Larribe, F; Froda, S

2016-10-01

In Ait Kaci Azzou et al. (2015) we introduced an Importance Sampling (IS) approach for estimating the demographic history of a sample of DNA sequences, the skywis plot. More precisely, we proposed a new nonparametric estimate of a population size that changes over time. We showed on simulated data that the skywis plot can work well in typical situations where the effective population size does not undergo very steep changes. In this paper, we introduce an iterative procedure which extends the previous method and gives good estimates under such rapid variations. In the iterative calibrated skywis plot we approximate the effective population size by a piecewise constant function, whose values are re-estimated at each step. These piecewise constant functions are used to generate the waiting times of non homogeneous Poisson processes related to a coalescent process with mutation under a variable population size model. Moreover, the present IS procedure is based on a modified version of the Stephens and Donnelly (2000) proposal distribution. Finally, we apply the iterative calibrated skywis plot method to a simulated data set from a rapidly expanding exponential model, and we show that the method based on this new IS strategy correctly reconstructs the demographic history. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Rapid, global demographic expansions after the origins of agriculture.

Science.gov (United States)

Gignoux, Christopher R; Henn, Brenna M; Mountain, Joanna L

2011-04-12

The invention of agriculture is widely assumed to have driven recent human population growth. However, direct genetic evidence for population growth after independent agricultural origins has been elusive. We estimated population sizes through time from a set of globally distributed whole mitochondrial genomes, after separating lineages associated with agricultural populations from those associated with hunter-gatherers. The coalescent-based analysis revealed strong evidence for distinct demographic expansions in Europe, southeastern Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa within the past 10,000 y. Estimates of the timing of population growth based on genetic data correspond neatly to dates for the initial origins of agriculture derived from archaeological evidence. Comparisons of rates of population growth through time reveal that the invention of agriculture facilitated a fivefold increase in population growth relative to more ancient expansions of hunter-gatherers.

Rural AIDS Diagnoses in Florida: Changing Demographics and Factors Associated With Survival

Science.gov (United States)

Trepka, Mary Jo; Niyonsenga, Theophile; Maddox, Lorene M.; Lieb, Spencer

2012-01-01

Purpose To compare demographic characteristics and predictors of survival of rural residents diagnosed with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) with those of urban residents. Methods Florida surveillance data for people diagnosed with AIDS during 1993–2007 were merged with 2000 Census data using ZIP code tabulation areas (ZCTA). Rural status was classified based on the ZCTA’s rural-urban commuting area classification. Survival rates were compared between rural and urban areas using survival curves and Cox proportional hazards models controlling for demographic, clinical, and area-level socioeconomic and health care access factors. Findings Of the 73,590 people diagnosed with AIDS, 1,991 (2.7%) resided in rural areas. People in the most recent rural cohorts were more likely than those in earlier cohorts to be female, non-Hispanic black, older, and have a reported transmission mode of heterosexual sex. There were no statistically significant differences in the 3-, 5-, or 10-year survival rates between rural and urban residents. Older age at the time of diagnosis, diagnosis during the 1993–1995 period, other/unknown transmission mode, and lower CD4 count/percent categories were associated with lower survival in both rural and urban areas. In urban areas only, being non-Hispanic black or Hispanic, being US born, more poverty, less community social support, and lower physician density were also associated with lower survival. Conclusions In rural Florida, the demographic characteristics of people diagnosed with AIDS have been changing, which may necessitate modifications in the delivery of AIDS-related services. Rural residents diagnosed with AIDS did not have a significant survival disadvantage relative to urban residents. PMID:23802929

Do we need demographic data to forecast plant population dynamics?

Science.gov (United States)

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Adler, Peter B.

2017-01-01

Rapid environmental change has generated growing interest in forecasts of future population trajectories. Traditional population models built with detailed demographic observations from one study site can address the impacts of environmental change at particular locations, but are difficult to scale up to the landscape and regional scales relevant to management decisions. An alternative is to build models using population-level data that are much easier to collect over broad spatial scales than individual-level data. However, it is unknown whether models built using population-level data adequately capture the effects of density-dependence and environmental forcing that are necessary to generate skillful forecasts.Here, we test the consequences of aggregating individual responses when forecasting the population states (percent cover) and trajectories of four perennial grass species in a semi-arid grassland in Montana, USA. We parameterized two population models for each species, one based on individual-level data (survival, growth and recruitment) and one on population-level data (percent cover), and compared their forecasting accuracy and forecast horizons with and without the inclusion of climate covariates. For both models, we used Bayesian ridge regression to weight the influence of climate covariates for optimal prediction.In the absence of climate effects, we found no significant difference between the forecast accuracy of models based on individual-level data and models based on population-level data. Climate effects were weak, but increased forecast accuracy for two species. Increases in accuracy with climate covariates were similar between model types.In our case study, percent cover models generated forecasts as accurate as those from a demographic model. For the goal of forecasting, models based on aggregated individual-level data may offer a practical alternative to data-intensive demographic models. Long time series of percent cover data already exist

Perceptual classification in a rapidly-changing environment

OpenAIRE

Summerfield, Christopher; Behrens, Timothy E.; Koechlin, Etienne

2011-01-01

Humans and monkeys can learn to classify perceptual information in a statistically optimal fashion if the functional groupings remain stable over many hundreds of trials, but little is known about categorisation when the environment changes rapidly. Here, we used a combination of computational modelling and functional neuroimaging to understand how humans classify visual stimuli drawn from categories whose mean and variance jumped unpredictably. Models based on optimal learning (Bayesian mode...

Rethinking species’ ability to cope with rapid climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hof, Christian; Levinsky, Irina; Bastos Araujo, Miguel

2011-01-01

Ongoing climate change is assumed to be exceptional because of its unprecedented velocity. However, new geophysical research suggests that dramatic climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene occurred extremely rapid, over just a few years. These abrupt climatic changes may have been even faster...... than contemporary ones, but relatively few continent-wide extinctions of species have been documented for these periods. This raises questions about the ability of extant species to adapt to ongoing climate change. We propose that the advances in geophysical research challenge current views about...... species' ability to cope with climate change, and that lessons must be learned for modelling future impacts of climate change on species....

On being a scientist in a rapidly changing world.

Science.gov (United States)

Mandel, I D

1996-02-01

The practice of biological science has changed dramatically since mid-century, reshaped not only by a rapid series of landmark discoveries, but also by governmental directives, institutional policies, and public attitudes. Until 1964, the major influences were the mentor, who provided direction and indoctrination into the culture of science, and in dentistry, the newly established NIDR, which fueled the research engine with an expanding research and training program. The 1965-74 period witnessed the advent of the Institutional Review Board, an increased social involvement of biological scientists, and a recognition of the need for biological and physical safeguards in the conduct of research. The most turbulent years were 1975-89, when there was a confluence of animal rights activism and regulation, growing concerns with scientific fraud and publication malpractice, and the stresses and strains (and opportunities) resulting from the rapid expansion of the academic-industrial complex. The current period is characterized by rapid pace, high volume, and an increased depth and breadth of knowledge-a major change in scale in the conduct of science. It is an exciting time but one in which ethical issues are multiplying. Attention must be paid.

Estimating synchronous demographic changes across populations using hABC and its application for a herpetological community from northeastern Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Gehara, Marcelo; Garda, Adrian A; Werneck, Fernanda P; Oliveira, Eliana F; da Fonseca, Emanuel M; Camurugi, Felipe; Magalhães, Felipe de M; Lanna, Flávia M; Sites, Jack W; Marques, Ricardo; Silveira-Filho, Ricardo; São Pedro, Vinícius A; Colli, Guarino R; Costa, Gabriel C; Burbrink, Frank T

2017-09-01

Many studies propose that Quaternary climatic cycles contracted and/or expanded the ranges of species and biomes. Strong expansion-contraction dynamics of biomes presume concerted demographic changes of associated fauna. The analysis of temporal concordance of demographic changes can be used to test the influence of Quaternary climate on diversification processes. Hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation (hABC) is a powerful and flexible approach that models genetic data from multiple species, and can be used to estimate the temporal concordance of demographic processes. Using available single-locus data, we can now perform large-scale analyses, both in terms of number of species and geographic scope. Here, we first compared the power of four alternative hABC models for a collection of single-locus data. We found that the model incorporating an a priori hypothesis about the timing of simultaneous demographic change had the best performance. Second, we applied the hABC models to a data set of seven squamate and four amphibian species occurring in the Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (Caatinga) in northeastern Brazil, which, according to paleoclimatic evidence, experienced an increase in aridity during the Pleistocene. If this increase was important for the diversification of associated xeric-adapted species, simultaneous population expansions should be evident at the community level. We found a strong signal of synchronous population expansion in the Late Pleistocene, supporting the increase of the Caatinga during this time. This expansion likely enhanced the formation of communities adapted to high aridity and seasonality and caused regional extirpation of taxa adapted to wet forest. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Demograficheskie izmenenija v Germanii i novaja territorial'naja struktura starenija [Demographic change in Germany and reversal of spatial ageing patterns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Swiaczny Frank

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the result of a spatial analysis considering the effect of demographic ageing and ageing-in-place processes in Germany according to spatially differentiated ageing patterns among urban, sub-urban and rural counties up to 2025. As to the latest official population forecast counties of urban core regions will undergo a slower ageing process than other types of counties, resulting in a reversal of ageing patterns. Urban core areas in this analysis will gain demographically from their net migration surplus while suburban housing locations of the past will be no longer able to attract enough young migrants to compensate for their now rapidly ageing baby boomer generation. The process presented is typical for the fate of (suburban housing areas with homogenous populations under conditions of ageing and shrinking if spatial mobility in ageing population groups is declining.

The role of behavioral economic incentive design and demographic characteristics in financial incentive-based approaches to changing health behaviors: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Haff, Nancy; Patel, Mitesh S; Lim, Raymond; Zhu, Jingsan; Troxel, Andrea B; Asch, David A; Volpp, Kevin G

2015-01-01

To evaluate the use of behavioral economics to design financial incentives to promote health behavior change and to explore associations with demographic characteristics. Studies performed by the Center for Health Incentives and Behavioral Economics at the University of Pennsylvania published between January 2006 and March 2014. Randomized, controlled trials with available participant-level data. Studies that did not use financial incentives to promote health behavior change were excluded. Participant-level data from seven studies were pooled. Meta-analysis on the pooled sample using a random-effects model with interaction terms to examine treatment effects and whether they varied by incentive structure or demographic characteristics. The pooled study sample comprised 1403 participants, of whom 35% were female, 70% were white, 24% were black, and the mean age was 48 years (standard deviation 11.2 years). In the fully adjusted model, participants offered financial incentives had higher odds of behavior change (odds ratio [OR]: 3.96; p financial incentives and gender, age, race, income, or education. When further adjusting for incentive structure, blacks had higher odds than whites of achieving behavior change (OR: 1.67; p Financial incentives designed using concepts from behavioral economics were effective for promoting health behavior change. There were no large and consistent relationships between the effectiveness of financial incentives and observable demographic characteristics. Second-order examinations of incentive structure suggest potential relationships among the effectiveness of financial incentives, incentive structure, and the demographic characteristics of race and income.

The demographic implications of nomadic herdsmen and farmers ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The paper examined the demographic implications resulting from nomadic herdsmen and farmers clashes in Nigeria. Relevant published texts across the country and the Malthusian theory provided the leverage for the study. It revealed that the Nigeria's population is dynamic and growing at a very rapid rate compared to ...

Prevalence of obesity, central obesity, and associated socio-demographic variables in Syrian women using different anthropometric indicators

OpenAIRE

Bakir M Adel; Hammad Kholoud; Mohammad Loreen

2017-01-01

The prevalence of overweight and obesity is increasing globally in both developing and developed countries, especially, those with rapid cultural and social changes. The aims of current study were twofold: (a) to examine, for the first time in Syria, the prevalence of overweight, obesity and central obesity in Syrian women and obesity-related socio-demographic determinants, and (b) to establish a base line data about obesity related determinants needed to develop appropriate treatment and pre...

Rapid changes in the range limits of Scots pine 4000 years ago

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gear, A.J.; Huntley, B.

1991-01-01

Paleoecological data provide estimates of response rates to past climate changes. Fossil Pinus sylvestris stumps in far northern Scotland demonstrate former presence of pine trees where conventional pollen evidence of pine forests is lacking. Radiocarbon, dendrochronological, and fine temporal-resolution palynological data show that pine forest were present for about four centuries some 4,000 years ago; the forests expanded and then retreated rapidly some 70 to 80 kilometers. Despite the rapidity of this response to climate change, it occurred at rates slower by an order of magnitude than those necessary to maintain equilibrium with forecast climate changes attributed to the greenhouse effect

Empirical Succession Mapping and Data Assimilation to Constrain Demographic Processes in an Ecosystem Model

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, R.; Andrews, T.; Dietze, M.

2015-12-01

Shifts in ecological communities in response to environmental change have implications for biodiversity, ecosystem function, and feedbacks to global climate change. Community composition is fundamentally the product of demography, but demographic processes are simplified or missing altogether in many ecosystem, Earth system, and species distribution models. This limitation arises in part because demographic data are noisy and difficult to synthesize. As a consequence, demographic processes are challenging to formulate in models in the first place, and to verify and constrain with data thereafter. Here, we used a novel analysis of the USFS Forest Inventory Analysis to improve the representation of demography in an ecosystem model. First, we created an Empirical Succession Mapping (ESM) based on ~1 million individual tree observations from the eastern U.S. to identify broad demographic patterns related to forest succession and disturbance. We used results from this analysis to guide reformulation of the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), an existing forest simulator with explicit tree demography. Results from the ESM reveal a coherent, cyclic pattern of change in temperate forest tree size and density over the eastern U.S. The ESM captures key ecological processes including succession, self-thinning, and gap-filling, and quantifies the typical trajectory of these processes as a function of tree size and stand density. Recruitment is most rapid in early-successional stands with low density and mean diameter, but slows as stand density increases; mean diameter increases until thinning promotes recruitment of small-diameter trees. Strikingly, the upper bound of size-density space that emerges in the ESM conforms closely to the self-thinning power law often observed in ecology. The ED model obeys this same overall size-density boundary, but overestimates plot-level growth, mortality, and fecundity rates, leading to unrealistic emergent demographic patterns. In particular

A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants

Science.gov (United States)

Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Siewert, Wolfgang; Casper, Brenda B.; Tielbörger, Katja

2012-01-01

Desert species respond strongly to infrequent, intense pulses of precipitation. Consequently, indigenous flora has developed a rich repertoire of life-history strategies to deal with fluctuations in resource availability. Examinations of how future climate change will affect the biota often forecast negative impacts, but these—usually correlative—approaches overlook precipitation variation because they are based on averages. Here, we provide an overview of how variable precipitation affects perennial and annual desert plants, and then implement an innovative, mechanistic approach to examine the effects of precipitation on populations of two desert plant species. This approach couples robust climatic projections, including variable precipitation, with stochastic, stage-structured models constructed from long-term demographic datasets of the short-lived Cryptantha flava in the Colorado Plateau Desert (USA) and the annual Carrichtera annua in the Negev Desert (Israel). Our results highlight these populations' potential to buffer future stochastic precipitation. Population growth rates in both species increased under future conditions: wetter, longer growing seasons for Cryptantha and drier years for Carrichtera. We determined that such changes are primarily due to survival and size changes for Cryptantha and the role of seed bank for Carrichtera. Our work suggests that desert plants, and thus the resources they provide, might be more resilient to climate change than previously thought. PMID:23045708

Rapid Change Detection Algorithm for Disaster Management

Science.gov (United States)

Michel, U.; Thunig, H.; Ehlers, M.; Reinartz, P.

2012-07-01

This paper focuses on change detection applications in areas where catastrophic events took place which resulted in rapid destruction especially of manmade objects. Standard methods for automated change detection prove not to be sufficient; therefore a new method was developed and tested. The presented method allows a fast detection and visualization of change in areas of crisis or catastrophes. While often new methods of remote sensing are developed without user oriented aspects, organizations and authorities are not able to use these methods because of absence of remote sensing know how. Therefore a semi-automated procedure was developed. Within a transferable framework, the developed algorithm can be implemented for a set of remote sensing data among different investigation areas. Several case studies are the base for the retrieved results. Within a coarse dividing into statistical parts and the segmentation in meaningful objects, the framework is able to deal with different types of change. By means of an elaborated Temporal Change Index (TCI) only panchromatic datasets are used to extract areas which are destroyed, areas which were not affected and in addition areas where rebuilding has already started.

[The demographic potential of Russia].

Science.gov (United States)

Vishnevskii, A

1998-05-01

This is a general review of current demographic trends in Russia. The author analyzes the decline in population size that is taking place at the end of the twentieth century, and traces its origins as far back as the disturbances associated with World War I, the Communist revolution, and the civil war that followed it. Political repression during the Stalinist period and the tribulations experienced during World War II also contributed to the current demographic crisis. The author discusses the changes in migration patterns and the declining fertility and increasing mortality rates. The decline in life expectancy is also addressed. Some comparisons are made with the demographic situation in other European countries.

Demographic transitions in Europe and the world

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Willekens, Frans

The demographic transition is a universal phenomenon. All regions of the world experience a change from high levels of mortality and fertility to low levels. The onset and pace of the demographic transition vary between regions and countries because of differences in timing of events and conditions

Demographic transitions in Europe and the world

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Willekens, F.J.; Matthijs, K.; Neels, K.; Timmerman, C.; Haers, J.; Mels, S.

2016-01-01

Willekens, F. (2015) Demographic transitions in Europe and the world. In: K. Matthijs, K. Neels, C. Timmerman. J. Haers and S. Mels eds. Population change at work in Europe, the Middle-East and North Africa. Beyond the demographic divide. Ashgate (International Population Studies Series) pp. 13-44.

Rapid change of field line connectivity and reconnection in stochastic magnetic fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Yi-Min; Bhattacharjee, A.; Boozer, Allen H.

2014-01-01

Magnetic fields without a direction of continuous symmetry have the generic feature that neighboring field lines exponentiate away from each other and become stochastic, and hence the ideal constraint of preserving magnetic field line connectivity becomes exponentially sensitive to small deviations from ideal Ohm's law. The idea of breaking field line connectivity by stochasticity as a mechanism for fast reconnection is tested with numerical simulations based on reduced magnetohydrodynamics equations with a strong guide field line-tied to two perfectly conducting end plates. Starting from an ideally stable force-free equilibrium, the system is allowed to undergo resistive relaxation. Two distinct phases are found in the process of resistive relaxation. During the quasi-static phase, rapid change of field line connectivity and strong induced flow are found in regions of high field line exponentiation. However, although the field line connectivity of individual field lines can change rapidly, the overall pattern of field line mapping appears to deform gradually. From this perspective, field line exponentiation appears to cause enhanced diffusion rather than reconnection. In some cases, resistive quasi-static evolution can cause the ideally stable initial equilibrium to cross a stability threshold, leading to formation of intense current filaments and rapid change of field line mapping into a qualitatively different pattern. It is in this onset phase that the change of field line connectivity is more appropriately designated as magnetic reconnection. Our results show that rapid change of field line connectivity appears to be a necessary, but not a sufficient condition for fast reconnection.

Spatial extent in demographic research - approach and problems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Knežević Aleksandar

2015-01-01

Full Text Available One of the starting methodological problems in demographic research is the definition of spatial extent, which mostly doesn’t correspond to spatial extent already defined by different levels of administrative-territorial unitsthat are used for distribution of usable statistical data. That’s why determining the spatial extent of a demographic research is closely tied with administrative-territorial division of the territory that is being researched, wherein the fact that differentiation of demographic phenomena and processes cannot be the only basis of setting the principles of regionalization must be strictly acknowledged. This problem is particularly common in historical demographic analyses of geographically determined wholes, which are in administratively-territorial sense represented by one or more smaller territorial units, with their borders changing through the history, which directly affects comparability of the statistical data, and makes it considerably more difficult to track demographic change through longer time intervals. The result of these efforts is usually a solution based on a compromise which enables us to examine the dynamics of population change with little deviation from already defined borders of regional geographic wholes. For that reason in this paper the problem of defining spatial extent in demographic research is examined trough several different approaches in case of Eastern Serbia, as a geographically determined region, a historic area, a spatially functioning whole and as a statistical unit for demographic research, with no judgment calls in regard to any of the regionalization principles. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III 47006

Demographic Change in the American Geophysical Union's United States Membership, 2006-2014

Science.gov (United States)

Rhodes, D. D.

2014-12-01

AGU's demographic characteristics changed during the period 2006-2014 in response to the aging of the Baby Boom generation and an increase in the number of women geoscientists. This analysis deals only with the portion of AGU's membership with mailing addresses within the US, a group that comprised 65% of the worldwide total in 2006 and 61% of the total membership in 2014. Using the US membership data that include both the members' birthdate and gender, a comparison of the population structures in 2006 and 2014 reveals characteristics of the changing US workforce. Since 2006, the percent of the US membership represented by the Baby Boom has decreased 5.2%, from 37.2% to 32.0%. That trend will continue for the next 20 years and the rate will accelerate before slowing again. At the same time the Boomers are decreasing in number, the percentage of the membership represented by the more recent age-cohorts (born 1965-1989) has grown. For example, in 2006, the 1985-1989 cohort was barely represented (0.14%). By February 2014, the cohort had become 8.25% of the U.S. membership. The four cohorts covering birth years 1965 through 1984, each increased slightly in size. In addition, each had a larger number of women, reflecting AGU's increased female membership from 22.5% to 25.3%. The 1985-1989 cohort is somewhat smaller than the previous four cohorts. If the smaller size of this represents a reversal of the growth trend over the last 25 years, the implications for the size of the US workforce are important. Perhaps the most significant change in the demographic structure of AGU's US membership is that the general shape of the age-gender diagram, while still asymmetrical because of the larger number of men, is becoming more straight sided due to the similar size of recent cohorts. This shape is characteristic of stable populations when dealing with self-reproducing groups. The implications for the future of a scientific society are less clear, but the cause reflects a period

Indigenous people's detection of rapid ecological change.

Science.gov (United States)

Aswani, Shankar; Lauer, Matthew

2014-06-01

When sudden catastrophic events occur, it becomes critical for coastal communities to detect and respond to environmental transformations because failure to do so may undermine overall ecosystem resilience and threaten people's livelihoods. We therefore asked how capable of detecting rapid ecological change following massive environmental disruptions local, indigenous people are. We assessed the direction and periodicity of experimental learning of people in the Western Solomon Islands after a tsunami in 2007. We compared the results of marine science surveys with local ecological knowledge of the benthos across 3 affected villages and 3 periods before and after the tsunami. We sought to determine how people recognize biophysical changes in the environment before and after catastrophic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis and whether people have the ability to detect ecological changes over short time scales or need longer time scales to recognize changes. Indigenous people were able to detect changes in the benthos over time. Detection levels differed between marine science surveys and local ecological knowledge sources over time, but overall patterns of statistically significant detection of change were evident for various habitats. Our findings have implications for marine conservation, coastal management policies, and disaster-relief efforts because when people are able to detect ecological changes, this, in turn, affects how they exploit and manage their marine resources. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Middle Holocene rapid environmental changes and human adaptation in Greece

Science.gov (United States)

Lespez, Laurent; Glais, Arthur; Lopez-Saez, José-Antonio; Le Drezen, Yann; Tsirtsoni, Zoï; Davidson, Robert; Biree, Laetitia; Malamidou, Dimitra

2016-03-01

Numerous researchers discuss of the collapse of civilizations in response to abrupt climate change in the Mediterranean region. The period between 6500 and 5000 cal yr BP is one of the least studied episodes of rapid climate change at the end of the Late Neolithic. This period is characterized by a dramatic decline in settlement and a cultural break in the Balkans. High-resolution paleoenvironmental proxy data obtained in the Lower Angitis Valley enables an examination of the societal responses to rapid climatic change in Greece. Development of a lasting fluvio-lacustrine environment followed by enhanced fluvial activity is evident from 6000 cal yr BP. Paleoecological data show a succession of dry events at 5800-5700, 5450 and 5000-4900 cal yr BP. These events correspond to incursion of cold air masses to the eastern Mediterranean, confirming the climatic instability of the middle Holocene climate transition. Two periods with farming and pastural activities (6300-5600 and 5100-4700 cal BP) are evident. The intervening period is marked by environmental changes, but the continuous occurrence of anthropogenic taxa suggests the persistence of human activities despite the absence of archaeological evidence. The environmental factors alone were not sufficient to trigger the observed societal changes.

Districts' Responses to Demographic Change: Making Sense of Race, Class, and Immigration in Political and Organizational Context

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, Erica O.

2015-01-01

Many U.S. public school systems now face three large demographic shifts: rising poverty, the growing number of students from immigrant families, and increasing populations of students of color. Yet, we know little about how district policymakers react to these important changes or indeed the factors that consistently shape their policymaking.…

Demographic resilience of territorial island birds to extinction: the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Since 1600, a disproportionate number of avian extinctions have occurred among flightless and island-dwelling species. Some of these happened very rapidly, implying that such populations had low resilience to perturbation. In managing insular populations, there is a need to be able to predict their demographic ...

The Chinese experience of rapid modernization: sociocultural changes, psychological consequences?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiahong eSun

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Mainland China has undergone profound changes dating back to the nineteenth century, including a contemporary period of rapid modernization that began in the 1980s. The result has been dramatic social, cultural, and economic shifts impacting the daily lives of Chinese people. In this paper, we explore the psychological implications of sociocultural transformation in China, emphasizing two central themes. First, rising individualism: findings from social and developmental psychology suggest that China’s rapid development has been accompanied by ever-increasing adherence to individualistic values. Second, rising rates of depression: findings from psychiatric epidemiology point to increasing prevalence of depression over this same time period, particularly in rural settings. We argue that links between sociocultural and psychological shifts in China can be usefully studied through a cultural psychology lens, emphasizing the mutual constitution of culture, mind, and brain. In particular, we note that the link between social change, individualism, and rising mental illness deserves careful attention. Our review suggests that shifting values and socialization practices shape emotion norms of concealment and display, with implications for depressive symptom presentation. The challenge comes with interpretation. Increasing prevalence rates of depression may indeed be a general response to the rapidity of sociocultural change, or a specific consequence of rising individualism—but may also result from increasingly ‘Western’ patterns of symptom presentation, or improvements in diagnostic practice. We conclude by considering the challenges posed to standard universal models of psychological phenomena.

The Chinese Experience of Rapid Modernization: Sociocultural Changes, Psychological Consequences?

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Jiahong; Ryder, Andrew G.

2016-01-01

Mainland China has undergone profound changes dating back to the nineteenth century, including a contemporary period of rapid modernization that began in the 1980s. The result has been dramatic social, cultural, and economic shifts impacting the daily lives of Chinese people. In this paper, we explore the psychological implications of sociocultural transformation in China, emphasizing two central themes. First, rising individualism: findings from social and developmental psychology suggest that China’s rapid development has been accompanied by ever-increasing adherence to individualistic values. Second, rising rates of depression: findings from psychiatric epidemiology point to increasing prevalence of depression over this same time period, particularly in rural settings. We argue that links between sociocultural and psychological shifts in China can be usefully studied through a cultural psychology lens, emphasizing the mutual constitution of culture, mind, and brain. In particular, we note that the link between social change, individualism, and rising mental illness deserves careful attention. Our review suggests that shifting values and socialization practices shape emotion norms of concealment and display, with implications for depressive symptom presentation. The challenge comes with interpretation. Increasing prevalence rates of depression may indeed be a general response to the rapidity of sociocultural change, or a specific consequence of rising individualism—but may also result from increasingly ‘Western’ patterns of symptom presentation, or improvements in diagnostic practice. We conclude by considering the challenges posed to standard universal models of psychological phenomena. PMID:27092093

Endogenous technological and demographic change under increasing water scarcity

Science.gov (United States)

Pande, Saket; Ertsen, Maurits; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2014-05-01

The ancient civilization in the Indus Valley civilization dispersed under extreme dry conditions; there are indications that the same holds for many other ancient societies. Even contemporary societies, such as the one in Murrumbidgee river basin in Australia, have started to witness a decline in overall population under increasing water scarcity. Hydroclimatic change may not be the sole predictor of the fate of contemporary societies in water scarce regions and many critics of such (perceived) hydroclimatic determinism have suggested that technological change may ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity and as such counter the effects of hydroclimatic changes. To study the role of technological change on the dynamics of coupled human-water systems, we develop a simple overlapping-generations model of endogenous technological and demographic change. We model technological change as an endogenous process that depends on factors such as the investments that are (endogenously) made in a society, the (endogenous) diversification of a society into skilled and unskilled workers, a society's patience in terms of its present consumption vs. future consumption, production technology and the (endogenous) interaction of all of these factors. In the model the population growth rate is programmed to decline once consumption per capita crosses a "survival" threshold. This means we do not treat technology as an exogenous random sequence of events, but instead assume that it results (endogenously) from societal actions. The model demonstrates that technological change may indeed ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity but typically it does so only to a certain extent. It is possible that technological change may allow a society to escape the effect of increasing water scarcity, leading to a (super)-exponential rise in technology and population. However, such cases require the rate of success of investment in technological advancement to be high. In other

Demographic Composition of the Online Buyers in Turkey

OpenAIRE

Sinan NARDALI

2011-01-01

Demographic variables may have an impact on Internet usage patterns. Online buyers’ characteristics keeps changing time along with the shifting dynamics of Turkish consumers’ demographic profile and day by day online shopping becomes a safe and popular option in Turkey. Current study investigates demographic composition of the online buyers that influence consumer attitudes towards online shopping behavior in Izmir, the third largest city in Turkey. This study examines attitudes toward online...

THE SECOND DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY: A Review and Appraisal.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaidi, Batool; Morgan, S Philip

2017-07-01

References to the second demographic transition (SDT) concept/theoretical framework have increased dramatically in the last two decades. The SDT predicts unilinear change toward very low fertility and a diversity of union and family types. The primary driver of these changes is a powerful, inevitable and irreversible shift in attitudes and norms in the direction of greater individual freedom and self-actualization. First, we describe the origin of this framework and its evolution over time. Second, we review the empirical fit of the framework to major changes in demographic and family behavior in the U.S., the West, and beyond. As has been the case for other unilinear, developmental theories of demographic/family change, the SDT failed to predict many contemporary patterns of change/difference. Finally, we review previous critiques and identify fundamental weaknesses of this perspective, and provide brief comparisons to selected alternative approaches.

Rapid ecosystem change challenges the adaptive capacity of Local Environmental Knowledge.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Díaz-Reviriego, Isabel; Luz, Ana C; Cabeza, Mar; Pyhälä, Aili; Reyes-García, Victoria

2015-03-01

The use of Local Environmental Knowledge has been considered as an important strategy for adaptive management in the face of Global Environmental Change. However, the unprecedented rates at which global change occurs may pose a challenge to the adaptive capacity of local knowledge systems. In this paper, we use the concept of the shifting baseline syndrome to examine the limits in the adaptive capacity of the local knowledge of an indigenous society facing rapid ecosystem change. We conducted semi-structured interviews regarding perceptions of change in wildlife populations and in intergenerational transmission of knowledge amongst the Tsimane', a group of hunter-gatherers of Bolivian Amazonia ( n = 300 adults in 13 villages). We found that the natural baseline against which the Tsimane' measure ecosystem changes might be shifting with every generation as a result of (a) age-related differences in the perception of change and (b) a decrease in the intergenerational sharing of environmental knowledge. Such findings suggest that local knowledge systems might not change at a rate quick enough to adapt to conditions of rapid ecosystem change, hence potentially compromising the adaptive success of the entire social-ecological system. With the current pace of Global Environmental Change, widening the gap between the temporal rates of on-going ecosystem change and the timescale needed for local knowledge systems to adjust to change, efforts to tackle the shifting baseline syndrome are urgent and critical for those who aim to use Local Environmental Knowledge as a tool for adaptive management.

Is the demographic dividend an education dividend?

Science.gov (United States)

Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús; Lutz, Wolfgang; Sanderson, Warren

2014-02-01

The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demography and population economics literature. The beneficial effect of changes in age structure after a decrease in fertility has become known as the "demographic dividend." In this article, we reassess the empirical evidence on the associations among economic growth, changes in age structure, labor force participation, and educational attainment. Using a global panel of countries, we find that after the effect of human capital dynamics is controlled for, no evidence exists that changes in age structure affect labor productivity. Our results imply that improvements in educational attainment are the key to explaining productivity and income growth and that a substantial portion of the demographic dividend is an education dividend.

Demographic Changes and the Challenge for a Healthy Ageing.

Science.gov (United States)

Rossini, Paolo Maria; Marra, Camillo

2014-01-01

Demographic changes bring about a wide range of new research fields including policy topics, health, social welfare, work & productivity, urban & rural development, communication tools, and mobility. This new situation requires a new multi-disciplinary approach bringing together different research programs in order to provide solutions for the upcoming challenges. National Health services are now facing a huge shift in the population structure with a predominance of older generations in the total number of citizens. Good health is the most important factor to live independently in old age. A better understanding of ageing processes and the related "plasticity" of individual performance for environmental adaptation, the prevention for age-related illnesses and healthcare strategies are the basis for keeping very old people healthy and active throughout the course of their lives. We will face mainly the biological, cognitive and psychological dimensions of ageing. Afterwards, we will focus on the relationships linking various biological and lifestyle factors - such as nutrition - that are crucial to obtain a comprehensive picture of ageing and to promote preventing strategies against degenerative neurological diseases. Finally we will investigate which interventions - nutritional and physical - could help in keeping people healthy, in particular which factors could promote people's physical, social and psychological functional abilities and the systemic multilevel consequences induced by a healthy ageing.

The advantages of demographic change after the wave: fewer and older, but healthier, greener, and more productive?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fanny Kluge

Full Text Available Population aging is an inevitable global demographic process. Most of the literature on the consequences of demographic change focuses on the economic and societal challenges that we will face as people live longer and have fewer children. In this paper, we (a briefly describe key trends and projections of the magnitude and speed of population aging; (b discuss the economic, social, and environmental consequences of population aging; and (c investigate some of the opportunities that aging societies create. We use Germany as a case study. However, the general insights that we obtain can be generalized to other developed countries. We argue that there may be positive unintended side effects of population aging that can be leveraged to address pressing environmental problems and issues of gender inequality and intergenerational ties.

Demographic changes and marker properties affect detection of human population differentiation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sanichwankul Kittipong

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Differentiating genetically between populations is valuable for admixture and population stratification detection and in understanding population history. This is easy to achieve for major continental populations, but not for closely related populations. It has been claimed that a large marker panel is necessary to reliably distinguish populations within a continent. We investigated whether empirical genetic differentiation could be accomplished efficiently among three Asian populations (Hmong, Thai, and Chinese using a small set of highly variable markers (15 tetranucleotide and 17 dinucleotide repeats. Results Hmong could be differentiated from Thai and Chinese based on multi-locus genotypes, but Thai and Chinese were indistinguishable from each other. We found significant evidence for a recent population bottleneck followed by expansion in the Hmong that was not present in the Thai or Chinese. Tetranucleotide repeats were less useful than dinucleotide repeat markers in distinguishing between major continental populations (Asian, European, and African while both successfully distinguished Hmong from Thai and Chinese. Conclusion Demographic history contributes significantly to robust detection of intracontinental population structure. Populations having experienced a rapid size reduction may be reliably distinguished as a result of a genetic drift -driven redistribution of population allele frequencies. Tetranucleotide markers, which differ from dinucleotide markers in mutation mechanism and rate, are similar in information content to dinucleotide markers in this situation. These factors should be considered when identifying populations suitable for gene mapping studies and when interpreting interpopulation relationships based on microsatellite markers.

Understanding rapid theoretical change in particle physics: a month-by-month co-citation analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sullivan, D.; Koester, D.; White, D.H.; Kern, R.

1979-01-01

While co-citation analysis has proved a powerful tool in the study of changes in intellectual foci in science, no one has ever used the technique to study very rapid changes in the theoretical structure of a scientific field. This paper presents month-by-month co-citation analyses of key phases in the weak-electromagnetic unification research program within particle physics, and shows that these analyses capture and illuminate very rapid intellectual changes. These data provide yet another illustration of the utility of co-citation analysis for understanding the history of science. 8 figures

[The beginning of the Cuban demographic revolution].

Science.gov (United States)

Hernandez Castellon, R

1981-01-01

The characteristics of the Cuban demographic revolution associated with the main economic, political, and social changes in the country are analyzed. The authors begin with a brief historical outline of the political-economic situation in the country in the middle of the 19th century. There is emphasis on the dependency of the Cuban economy and its monoproducer nature (with sugar being the major export). This was due to the Spanish colonization and to the subsequent American neocolonization. The discovery of the cause for yellow fever by a Cuban physician and the sanitation campaign conducted by the Americans contributed to a diminishing of mortality. A great migratory flow occurred due to the price of sugar in the world market. This must have influenced Cuban demographic patterns which are a major factor linked to the demographic revolution. The influence on proliferation of urbanization and educational trends is emphasized. The low participation in economic activities of women during the early part of the century did affect fertility levels. The trends in mortality throughout the period 1907-43 are pointed out. It was found that 1 major aspect which had a bearing on Cuban demographic patterns was the 2 large migratory flows. An analysis of growth rates in the population--which also confirms the demographic changes in Cuba--is presented. It is concluded that the 4th decade of this century witnessed Cuba's entry in a new stage of the demographic revolution, a stage in which decreased fertility and mortality go together to create a new period. (author's)

Added value from European Territorial Co-operation: the impact of demographic change in the Alps on the young

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marot Naja

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The article sets demographic change in the Alps in the framework of European Territorial Cooperation programs. A statistical overview of selected regions in five Alpine countries serves as a basis for further policy analysis. The latter was undertaken to reveal how transnational projects tackle youth issues, including the difficulties within the labour and real estate markets that appeared to be the most problematic factors influencing (out migration of the youth. While there is only a minor recognition of the young in current policymaking on supranational, regional and local levels, the analysis showed that the added value of transnational programs for mountain regions and localities can be recognized in the development of multi-stakeholder environments, creating and transferring new solutions for the labour market as well as empowering youth participation in policy processes. However, the extent to which these solutions might contribute to overcoming the challenges of demographic change because of transnational programs is limited by various factors. Among these are the precise governance framework, administrative capacity, and population figures.

Integrating data from multiple sources for insights into demographic processes: Simulation studies and proof of concept for hierarchical change-in-ratio models.

Science.gov (United States)

Nilsen, Erlend B; Strand, Olav

2018-01-01

We developed a model for estimating demographic rates and population abundance based on multiple data sets revealing information about population age- and sex structure. Such models have previously been described in the literature as change-in-ratio models, but we extend the applicability of the models by i) using time series data allowing the full temporal dynamics to be modelled, by ii) casting the model in an explicit hierarchical modelling framework, and by iii) estimating parameters based on Bayesian inference. Based on sensitivity analyses we conclude that the approach developed here is able to obtain estimates of demographic rate with high precision whenever unbiased data of population structure are available. Our simulations revealed that this was true also when data on population abundance are not available or not included in the modelling framework. Nevertheless, when data on population structure are biased due to different observability of different age- and sex categories this will affect estimates of all demographic rates. Estimates of population size is particularly sensitive to such biases, whereas demographic rates can be relatively precisely estimated even with biased observation data as long as the bias is not severe. We then use the models to estimate demographic rates and population abundance for two Norwegian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations where age-sex data were available for all harvested animals, and where population structure surveys were carried out in early summer (after calving) and late fall (after hunting season), and population size is counted in winter. We found that demographic rates were similar regardless whether we include population count data in the modelling, but that the estimated population size is affected by this decision. This suggest that monitoring programs that focus on population age- and sex structure will benefit from collecting additional data that allow estimation of observability for different age- and

Rapid area change in pitch-up manoeuvres of small perching birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Polet, D T; Rival, D E

2015-10-26

Rapid pitch-up has been highlighted as a mechanism to generate large lift and drag during landing manoeuvres. However, pitching rates had not been measured previously in perching birds, and so the direct applicability of computations and experiments to observed behaviour was not known. We measure pitch rates in a small, wild bird (the black-capped chickadee; Poecile atricapillus), and show that these rates are within the parameter range used in experiments. Pitching rates were characterized by the shape change number, a metric comparing the rate of frontal area increase to acceleration. Black-capped chickadees increase the shape change number during perching in direct proportion to their total kinetic and potential energy at the start of the manoeuvre. The linear relationship between dissipated energy and shape change number is in accordance with a simple analytical model developed for two-dimensional pitching and decelerating airfoils. Black-capped chickadees use a wing pitch-up manoeuvre during perching to dissipate energy quickly while maintaining lift and drag through rapid area change. It is suggested that similar pitch-and-decelerate manoeuvres could be used to aid in the controlled, precise landings of small manoeuvrable air vehicles.

Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

Science.gov (United States)

Querbes, Adrien; Vaesen, Krist; Houkes, Wybo

2014-01-01

Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

Rapid Communication: v= 2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3 ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Home; Journals; Pramana – Journal of Physics; Volume 89; Issue 5. Rapid Communication: Δ υ = 2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3 − states and B ( E 3 ) systematics of Sn isotopes. BHOOMIKA MAHESHWARI SWATI GARG ASHOK KUMAR JAIN. Research Article Volume 89 Issue 5 November 2017 Article ID 75 ...

Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Querbes, A.; Vaesen, K.; Houkes, W.N.

2014-01-01

Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological

San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) climate change adaptation assessment pilot.

Science.gov (United States)

2013-12-01

The objective of this pilot study was to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District : (BART) infrastructure and to develop and implement adaptation strategies against those impacts. Climate change haza...

Neurogenomics and the role of a large mutational target on rapid behavioral change.

Science.gov (United States)

Stanley, Craig E; Kulathinal, Rob J

2016-11-08

Behavior, while complex and dynamic, is among the most diverse, derived, and rapidly evolving traits in animals. The highly labile nature of heritable behavioral change is observed in such evolutionary phenomena as the emergence of converged behaviors in domesticated animals, the rapid evolution of preferences, and the routine development of ethological isolation between diverging populations and species. In fact, it is believed that nervous system development and its potential to evolve a seemingly infinite array of behavioral innovations played a major role in the successful diversification of metazoans, including our own human lineage. However, unlike other rapidly evolving functional systems such as sperm-egg interactions and immune defense, the genetic basis of rapid behavioral change remains elusive. Here we propose that the rapid divergence and widespread novelty of innate and adaptive behavior is primarily a function of its genomic architecture. Specifically, we hypothesize that the broad diversity of behavioral phenotypes present at micro- and macroevolutionary scales is promoted by a disproportionately large mutational target of neurogenic genes. We present evidence that these large neuro-behavioral targets are significant and ubiquitous in animal genomes and suggest that behavior's novelty and rapid emergence are driven by a number of factors including more selection on a larger pool of variants, a greater role of phenotypic plasticity, and/or unique molecular features present in large genes. We briefly discuss the origins of these large neurogenic genes, as they relate to the remarkable diversity of metazoan behaviors, and highlight key consequences on both behavioral traits and neurogenic disease across, respectively, evolutionary and ontogenetic time scales. Current approaches to studying the genetic mechanisms underlying rapid phenotypic change primarily focus on identifying signatures of Darwinian selection in protein-coding regions. In contrast

Demographic Ranking of the Baltic Sea States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sluka N.

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The relevance of the study lies in the acute need to modernise the tools for a more accurate and comparable reflection of the demographic reality of spatial objects of different scales. This article aims to test the methods of “demographic rankings” developed by Yermakov and Shmakov. The method is based on the principles of indirect standardisation of the major demographic coefficients relative to the age structure.The article describes the first attempt to apply the method to the analysis of birth and mortality rates in 1995 and 2010 for 140 countries against the global average, and for the Baltic Sea states against the European average. The grouping of countries and the analysis of changes over the given period confirmed a number of demographic development trends and the persistence of wide territorial disparities in major indicators. The authors identify opposite trends in ranking based on the standardised birth (country consolidation at the level of averaged values and mortality (polarisation rates. The features of demographic process development in the Baltic regions states are described against the global and European background. The study confirmed the validity of the demographic ranking method, which can be instrumental in solving not only scientific but also practical tasks, including those in the field of demographic and social policy.

[Urban development and the demographic situation in Chaco and its capital between 1960 and 1990].

Science.gov (United States)

Foschiatti De Dell'orto, A M

1992-01-01

"The large demographic growth registered in the Chaco province [of Argentina] at the beginning of this Century slowed down since the 1950s as a result of the successive economic crisis undergone by this province. The demographic response was the outmigration toward the more developed areas of the country and to the capital city of Chaco. A large share of Resistencia demographic growth is provided by this internal migration. This rapid increase makes inadequate the functional and the service structure of the city." (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

Rapid changes in gene expression direct rapid shifts in intestinal form and function in the Burmese python after feeding.

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Andrew, Audra L; Card, Daren C; Ruggiero, Robert P; Schield, Drew R; Adams, Richard H; Pollock, David D; Secor, Stephen M; Castoe, Todd A

2015-05-01

Snakes provide a unique and valuable model system for studying the extremes of physiological remodeling because of the ability of some species to rapidly upregulate organ form and function upon feeding. The predominant model species used to study such extreme responses has been the Burmese python because of the extreme nature of postfeeding response in this species. We analyzed the Burmese python intestine across a time series, before, during, and after feeding to understand the patterns and timing of changes in gene expression and their relationship to changes in intestinal form and function upon feeding. Our results indicate that >2,000 genes show significant changes in expression in the small intestine following feeding, including genes involved in intestinal morphology and function (e.g., hydrolases, microvillus proteins, trafficking and transport proteins), as well as genes involved in cell division and apoptosis. Extensive changes in gene expression occur surprisingly rapidly, within the first 6 h of feeding, coincide with changes in intestinal morphology, and effectively return to prefeeding levels within 10 days. Collectively, our results provide an unprecedented portrait of parallel changes in gene expression and intestinal morphology and physiology on a scale that is extreme both in the magnitude of changes, as well as in the incredibly short time frame of these changes, with up- and downregulation of expression and function occurring in the span of 10 days. Our results also identify conserved vertebrate signaling pathways that modulate these responses, which may suggest pathways for therapeutic modulation of intestinal function in humans. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Ten Thousand Voices on Marine Climate Change in Europe: Different Perceptions among Demographic Groups and Nationalities

KAUST Repository

Buckley, Paul J.; Pinnegar, John K.; Painting, Suzanne J.; Terry, Geraldine; Chilvers, Jason; Lorenzoni, Irene; Gelcich, Stefan; Duarte, Carlos M.

2017-01-01

Over the past few decades, substantial funding has been directed toward improving scientific understanding and management of impacts of climate change in the marine environment. Following concerns that the key messages from these studies were not reaching the public, a comprehensive opinion poll of 10,000 European citizens in 10 countries was conducted to establish levels of awareness, concern, and trust among different demographic groups (by age, gender, proximity to the coast) and nationalities. Citizens exhibited varying levels of self-declared

Ten Thousand Voices on Marine Climate Change in Europe: Different Perceptions among Demographic Groups and Nationalities

KAUST Repository

Buckley, Paul J.

2017-07-11

Over the past few decades, substantial funding has been directed toward improving scientific understanding and management of impacts of climate change in the marine environment. Following concerns that the key messages from these studies were not reaching the public, a comprehensive opinion poll of 10,000 European citizens in 10 countries was conducted to establish levels of awareness, concern, and trust among different demographic groups (by age, gender, proximity to the coast) and nationalities. Citizens exhibited varying levels of self-declared

Demographic buffering: titrating the effects of birth rate and imperfect immunity on epidemic dynamics.

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Morris, Sinead E; Pitzer, Virginia E; Viboud, Cécile; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Bjørnstad, Ottar N; Grenfell, Bryan T

2015-03-06

Host demography can alter the dynamics of infectious disease. In the case of perfectly immunizing infections, observations of strong sensitivity to demographic variation have been mechanistically explained through analysis of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model that assumes lifelong immunity following recovery from infection. When imperfect immunity is incorporated into this framework via the susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model, with individuals regaining full susceptibility following recovery, we show that rapid loss of immunity is predicted to buffer populations against the effects of demographic change. However, this buffering is contrary to the dependence on demography recently observed for partially immunizing infections such as rotavirus and respiratory syncytial virus. We show that this discrepancy arises from a key simplification embedded in the SIR(S) framework, namely that the potential for differential immune responses to repeat exposures is ignored. We explore the minimum additional immunological information that must be included to reflect the range of observed dependencies on demography. We show that including partial protection and lower transmission following primary infection is sufficient to capture more realistic reduced levels of buffering, in addition to changes in epidemic timing, across a range of partially and fully immunizing infections. Furthermore, our results identify key variables in this relationship, including R0.

Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

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Adrien Querbes

Full Text Available Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

The challenge of reconciling development objectives in the context of demographic change

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John Provo

2011-04-01

Full Text Available This paper considers whether the US Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC Asset-Based Development Initiative (ABDI reconciles economic development objectives in communities experiencing demographic change. Through a case study approach utilizing key informant interviews in Southwest Virginia communities and a review of ARC-funded projects, the authors consider two main questions. Did community leadership change or adapt to the program? Were new projects demonstrably different in objectives, content, or outcomes than past projects? Economic and demographic similarities between Alpine and Appalachian communities, particularly in the role of in-migrants, suggest that this study’s findings will be relevant for other mountain regions and could contribute to a conversation among international scholars of mountain development.Cet article cherche à déterminer si l’initiative de développement basé sur les ressources (ABDI, Asset-Based Development Initiative de la Commission régionale des Appalaches (ARC, Appalachian Regional Commission aux États-Unis réconcilie les objectifs de développement économique dans les communautés qui présentent un changement démographique. À travers des études de cas reposant sur des entretiens informatifs clés menés dans les communautés de la Virginie Occidentale et un examen de projets financés par l’ARC, les auteurs tentent de répondre à deux questions fondamentales : « Le leadership communautaire a-t-il évolué et s’est-il adapté au programme ? » et « Les nouveaux projets différaient-ils clairement, en termes d’objectifs, de contenu ou de résultats, des projets antérieurs ? ». Les similitudes économiques et démographiques entre les communautés alpines et appalachiennes, notamment en ce qui concerne le rôle des immigrants, suggèrent que les conclusions de cette étude seront pertinentes pour d’autres régions de montagnes et pourraient contribuer à un débat entre sp

Rapid structural and compositional change in an old-growth subtropical forest: using plant traits to identify probable drivers.

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Malizia, Agustina; Easdale, Tomás A; Grau, H Ricardo

2013-01-01

Recent studies have shown directional changes in old-growth tropical forests, but changes are complex and diverse, and their drivers unclear. Here, we report rapid net structural and compositional changes in an old-growth subtropical forest and we assess the functional nature of these changes to test hypothetical drivers including recovery from past disturbances, reduction in ungulate browsing, CO2 fertilization, and increases in rainfall and temperature. The study relies on 15 years of demographic monitoring within 8 ha of subtropical montane forest in Argentina. Between 1992 and 2007, stem density markedly increased by 50% (12 stems ha(-1) y(-1)) and basal area by 6% (0.13 m(2) ha(-1) y(-1)). Increased stem density resulted from enhanced recruitment of understory treelets (Piper tucumanum, Eugenia uniflora, Allophylus edulis) into small size classes. Among 27 common tree species, net population growth was negatively correlated with maximum tree size and longevity, and positively correlated with leaf size and leaf nutrient content, especially so when initial population size was controlled for. Changes were inconsistent with predictions derived from past disturbances (no increase in shade-tolerant or long-lived late-succesional species), rainfall or temperature increase (no increase in evergreen or deciduous species, respectively). However, the increase in nutrient-rich soft-leaved species was consistent with exclusion of large herbivores two decades before monitoring started; and CO2 fertilization could help explain the disproportionate increase in small stems. Reductions in populations of large vertebrates have been observed in many otherwise undisturbed tropical forests, and our results suggest they can have important structural and functional repercussions in these forests.

New type of Piezoresistive Pressure Sensors for Environments with Rapidly Changing Temperature

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Tykhan Myroslav

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The theoretical aspects of a new type of piezo-resistive pressure sensors for environments with rapidly changing temperatures are presented. The idea is that the sensor has two identical diaphragms which have different coefficients of linear thermal expansion. Therefore, when measuring pressure in environments with variable temperature, the diaphragms will have different deflection. This difference can be used to make appropriate correction of the sensor output signal and, thus, to increase accuracy of measurement. Since physical principles of sensors operation enable fast correction of the output signal, the sensor can be used in environments with rapidly changing temperature, which is its essential advantage. The paper presents practical implementation of the proposed theoretical aspects and the results of testing the developed sensor.

Political demography: Powerful trends under-attended by demographic science.

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Teitelbaum, Michael S

2015-01-01

The interconnections between politics and the dramatic demographic changes under way around the world have been neglected by the two research disciplines that could contribute most to their understanding: demography and political science. Instead, this area of 'political demography' has largely been ceded to political activists, pundits, and journalists, leading often to exaggerated or garbled interpretation. The terrain includes some of the most politically sensitive and contested issues: alleged demographically determined shifts in the international balance of power; low fertility, population decline, and demographic ageing; international migration; change in national identity; and compositional shifts in politically sensitive social categories and human rights. Meanwhile many governments and non-governmental actors have actively pursued varieties of 'strategic demography', deploying fertility, mortality, or migration as instruments of domestic or international policy. Political scientists and demographers could and should use their knowledge and analytic techniques to improve understanding and to moderate excessive claims and fears on these topics.

The changing demographic, legal, and technological contexts of political representation.

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Forest, Benjamin

2005-10-25

Three developments have created challenges for political representation in the U.S. and particularly for the use of territorially based representation (election by district). First, the demographic complexity of the U.S. population has grown both in absolute terms and in terms of residential patterns. Second, legal developments since the 1960s have recognized an increasing number of groups as eligible for voting rights protection. Third, the growing technical capacities of computer technology, particularly Geographic Information Systems, have allowed political parties and other organizations to create election districts with increasingly precise political and demographic characteristics. Scholars have made considerable progress in measuring and evaluating the racial and partisan biases of districting plans, and some states have tried to use Geographic Information Systems technology to produce more representative districts. However, case studies of Texas and Arizona illustrate that such analytic and technical advances have not overcome the basic contradictions that underlie the American system of territorial political representation.

Making the Case for Demographic Data in Extension Programming

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Curtis, Katherine J.; Verdoff, Daniel; Rizzo, Bill; Beaudoin, James

2012-01-01

Understanding one's community is essential for effective Extension programming across all program areas. The use of current and reliable demographic data is crucial for Extension to develop effective education and programming to track change and to uncover hidden community characteristics. We discuss what demographic data are, present…

Curioser and Curioser: New Concepts in the Rapidly Changing Landscape of Educational Administration.

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Fowler, Frances C.

1999-01-01

The new "Handbook" assumes that society is changing rapidly and educational administration must change with it. This article critiques chapters on four concepts: ideology, the new consumerism, social capital, and the new institutionalism. Consumerism is pure 19th-century liberalism/individualism; social capital theory and…

A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

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López-Carr, David; Pricope, Narcisa G.; Aukema, Juliann E.; Jankowska, Marta M.; Funk, Christopher C.; Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel C.

2014-01-01

We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

Rapid stress-induced transcriptomic changes in the brain depend on beta-adrenergic signaling.

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Roszkowski, Martin; Manuella, Francesca; von Ziegler, Lukas; Durán-Pacheco, Gonzalo; Moreau, Jean-Luc; Mansuy, Isabelle M; Bohacek, Johannes

2016-08-01

Acute exposure to stressful experiences can rapidly increase anxiety and cause neuropsychiatric disorders. The effects of stress result in part from the release of neurotransmitters and hormones, which regulate gene expression in different brain regions. The fast neuroendocrine response to stress is largely mediated by norepinephrine (NE) and corticotropin releasing hormone (CRH), followed by a slower and more sustained release of corticosterone. While corticosterone is an important regulator of gene expression, it is not clear which stress-signals contribute to the rapid regulation of gene expression observed immediately after stress exposure. Here, we demonstrate in mice that 45 min after an acute swim stress challenge, large changes in gene expression occur across the transcriptome in the hippocampus, a region sensitive to the effects of stress. We identify multiple candidate genes that are rapidly and transiently altered in both males and females. Using a pharmacological approach, we show that most of these rapidly induced genes are regulated by NE through β-adrenergic receptor signaling. We find that CRH and corticosterone can also contribute to rapid changes in gene expression, although these effects appear to be restricted to fewer genes. These results newly reveal a widespread impact of NE on the transcriptome and identify novel genes associated with stress and adrenergic signaling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Socio-demographic aspects of the rural household in Iran (author's transl)].

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Mohseni, M

1980-01-01

Explores the dynamics of sociodemographic aspects of rural Iranian households and the effects on economic, demographic and social structures of rural areas where there has been rapid development. The rural population is characterized by early and high fertility and rapid population growth. The patrilinear kinship system contributes to the high birth rate, while judicial, economic and social factors limit women's rights to birth control. Rights and duties towards children, and their rights and duties towards their parents, have a strong influence on decisions concerning fertility. (author's modified)

Gender inequalities from the demographic perspective

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Devedžić Mirjana

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The paper analyzes the meaning of the phrase "the woman’s status in the society" that is recognized in demography as an important cultural factor of demographic development and transitional changes. The analysis indicates qualitative shifts in the woman’s status and simultaneously reveals its importance at present, not only in traditional, but also in modern and developed societies. On the other hand, it explains the importance of sex as a biodemographic determinant, and introduces the concept of gender that sheds another light on the concepts of sex and woman’s status in the society and integrates them. Gender regimes that subsume the inferiority of women in public and private social structures are examined from demographic perspective, albeit only in those phenomenological aspects that can be supported by demographic research, theories, and analyses. To this end, the paper analyzes the effects of strengthening gender equalities on the fertility and mortality transitions, the gender’s impact on the population distribution by sex in South Asian countries, and highlights the key role of gender in interpreting certain social and economic structures. It also stresses the establishing of gender equality as an important element of population policies. The global dimension of the patriarchal society is illustrated through a series of examples of demographic phenomena from various societies. Gender regimes underlie all of these phenomena. The paper puts foreword certain theoretical hypotheses about gender inequalities, and finds their connections with demographic behaviors and demographic indicators. Finally, it summarizes the role of demography in gender (inequality research and the demographic perspective of the way and the speed the demographic equality is being established. Demography is seen as an irreplaceable discipline in examining gender inequalities, especially at the global level. With the advance of qualitative methods in demography

Demographic processes of developmentally peripheral areas in Hungary

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Pénzes János

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The current study investigates the demographic processes and challenges of the Hungarian developmentally peripheral settlements. Demographic challenges can be regarded as important consequences of the social and economic disadvantages in spatial terms. However, the interrelating negative demographic tendencies cause even more backward situation blocking or hindering the development. The objective of the current analysis is to discover the demographic characteristics of the peripheral settlements, to detect the spatial disparities and to point out the correlation between backwardness and the investigated demographic phenomena with the help of the census databases 1980-2011 and local datasets on Roma population. Using methods of multivariate statistical analysis, seven indicators were selected in order to achieve the goals of the paper. Backward areas are primarily characterized by population decrease with significant disparities, but there were growing communities among them as well. Some small villages in Northern and Southwestern Hungary will foreseeably face complete depopulation within few years. Primarily small sized villages faced intense decrease in rate of natural change, but dynamic population growth was also detected. Migration loss tends to correlate with the extent of peripherality, as increasing values of migration balance accompany decreasing ratio of peripheral settlements in the area. The ratio of elderly population shows an expressively two-faced character, with the extremely aging and very juvenile settlements. The ratios of Roma population reflect the scale of peripherality. Extended ethnic change could be predicted in Northeastern and Southwestern Hungary and near the Middle Tisza valley. Presented demographic processes will make the backwardness of most of the peripheral settlements stable.

Changes in the Demographic Characteristics of the American Geophysical Union Membership, 2006-2010

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Rhodes, D. D.

2010-12-01

Significant change occurred in the demographic properties of the American Geophysical Union membership during the period April 2006- January 2010. During this period AGU membership decreased from 48,332 to 38,847, a drop of 19.6%. Most of the change appears to have been driven by the aging membership of the Union, especially in the United States, and the effects of the global economic crisis on employment in all sectors of economy. Of the 38,847 members in January 2010, data on the birth year and gender were available for 33,610 members including 21,567 who reside in the United States. These data were compared to a similar data set captured in April 2006. The following observations are based on this subset of the total AGU membership for who country of residence and both age and gender are known. The number of AGU members residing in the United States decreased by 18.6% during the study period. As should be expected, the changes were not spread evenly between the genders or across birth-year cohorts. Membership among males decreased by 19%, while there were 17% fewer female members. The female cohorts that experienced the greatest losses were those including women from 30-40 years old (born 1970-1979). These data appear to echo multiple studies that show women leaving the sciences for gender-specific reasons. For the purposes of this analysis, the birth-year cohorts are divided into three groups. Members born prior to 1945 compose the oldest cohort. The Baby-Boom generation includes members born between 1945 and 1964. The youngest group includes members born from 1965 onward. Because of the very small number of women in the oldest group (only 4.7%) most of the change occurred among males. The total membership loss from this group was 1,140 members, 23% of the total. The largest change occurred among Baby Boomers. The group decreased by 2,760 members, accounting for 56% of the total decline in membership among US residents. Males accounted for most of the change (2

Demographic Change, Economic Conditions, and the Murder Rate: The Case of the Colombia, 1990 to 2013

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Luis Eduardo Sandoval

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Recent changes in the Colombian homicides rate not consider the change in the age distribution, inflation and unemployment that can explain how misery affects homicides in the long run. Therefore, from a relevant time period for Colombia can be analyzed if recent demographic transition given by a higher percentage of young population is a robust predictor of observed changes in the homicide rate along with a corresponding measure of misery given for the sum between unemployment rates and local inflation. This helps explain the long-term relationship between the age distribution in Colombia and rising homicide rates in the 90s along with the decrease in the latter part of the 2000s. It was found that there is a relationship between age and crime, as suggested by the classical literature and there is a long-term relationship between the homicides, misery and youth population density.

Rapid Structural Design Change Evaluation with AN Experiment Based FEM

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Chu, C.-H.; Trethewey, M. W.

1998-04-01

The work in this paper proposes a dynamic structural design model that can be developed in a rapid fashion. The approach endeavours to produce a simplified FEM developed in conjunction with an experimental modal database. The FEM is formulated directly from the geometry and connectivity used in an experimental modal test using beam/frame elements. The model sacrifices fine detail for a rapid development time. The FEM is updated at the element level so the dynamic response replicates the experimental results closely. The physical attributes of the model are retained, making it well suited to evaluate the effect of potential design changes. The capabilities are evaluated in a series of computational and laboratory tests. First, a study is performed with a simulated cantilever beam with a variable mass and stiffness distribution. The modal characteristics serve as the updating target with random noise added to simulate experimental uncertainty. A uniformly distributed FEM is developed and updated. The results show excellent results, all natural frequencies are within 0·001% with MAC values above 0·99. Next, the method is applied to predict the dynamic changes of a hardware portal frame structure for a radical design change. Natural frequency predictions from the original FEM differ by as much as almost 18% with reasonable MAC values. The results predicted from the updated model produce excellent results when compared to the actual hardware changes, the first five modal natural frequency difference is around 5% and the corresponding mode shapes producing MAC values above 0·98.

Managing health care organizations in an age of rapid change.

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Benjamin, S; al-Alaiwat, S

1998-03-01

Health care managers find their work increasingly difficult, due in part to rapid environmental change that plagues organizational life. Management practices and attitudes that may have been appropriate in previous eras are ineffective today. A study was conducted among managers in the Ministry of Health, State of Bahrain, seeking information about current trends in the macro or external environment that affect the Ministry of Health, as well as internal environmental pressures that may be similar or different. This article provides a clear picture of the context in which managers perform their work and offers recommendations for coping with change in dynamic, complex organizations.

The influence of a demographic change on social relationships among male golden snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana).

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Huang, Pengzhen; Zhang, Endi; Chen, Min

2018-06-05

It has been suggested that social relationships are more likely to be prone to variation in the dispersing sex than the philopatric sex. However, we know less about the dynamics of all-male groups in male-dispersing species than we do about other types of primate groups. We studied male sociality in a captive group of golden snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana), which was composed of a one-male unit (OMU, N = 7) and an all-male unit (AMU, N = 7 or 8), in Shanghai Wild Animal Park, China. Using data collected for 6 months, during which there was a demographic change in the AMU and the alpha male was replaced by a newcomer, we found that a dramatic change in social ranks occurred accompanied by elevated aggression following this social upheaval. A proximity-based social network analysis revealed that members did not associate randomly any more but formed differentiated relationships post-upheaval, resulting in three distinct sub-units in the AMU. In terms of inter-unit interactions, significant changes were found in the affiliations between the male juvenile of OMU and AMU individuals. He interacted with AMU individuals randomly and frequently pre-upheaval, but cut down his affiliations and had a preferred partner post-upheaval, who was a member of the dominant male's sub-unit. Our findings suggest that social networks in the dispersing sex are dynamic structures and vary by some demographic change (e.g., individual immigration) in the studied species. We also put forward that individual dominance could be a criterion when the male juvenile chooses partners before he immigrates into a group. In conclusion, the high level of behavioral flexibility of the dispersing sex could be an evolutional strategy and good for individuals' future dispersing life.

Effects of high latitude protected areas on bird communities under rapid climate change.

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Santangeli, Andrea; Rajasärkkä, Ari; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

2017-06-01

Anthropogenic climate change is rapidly becoming one of the main threats to biodiversity, along with other threats triggered by human-driven land-use change. Species are already responding to climate change by shifting their distributions polewards. This shift may create a spatial mismatch between dynamic species distributions and static protected areas (PAs). As protected areas represent one of the main pillars for preserving biodiversity today and in the future, it is important to assess their contribution in sheltering the biodiversity communities, they were designated to protect. A recent development to investigate climate-driven impacts on biological communities is represented by the community temperature index (CTI). CTI provides a measure of the relative temperature average of a community in a specific assemblage. CTI value will be higher for assemblages dominated by warm species compared with those dominated by cold-dwelling species. We here model changes in the CTI of Finnish bird assemblages, as well as changes in species densities, within and outside of PAs during the past four decades in a large boreal landscape under rapid change. We show that CTI has markedly increased over time across Finland, with this change being similar within and outside PAs and five to seven times slower than the temperature increase. Moreover, CTI has been constantly lower within than outside of PAs, and PAs still support communities, which show colder thermal index than those outside of PAs in the 1970s and 1980s. This result can be explained by the higher relative density of northern species within PAs than outside. Overall, our results provide some, albeit inconclusive, evidence that PAs may play a role in supporting the community of northern species. Results also suggest that communities are, however, shifting rapidly, both inside and outside of PAs, highlighting the need for adjusting conservation measures before it is too late. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Changes in seafood consumer preference patterns and associated changes in risk exposure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jensen, Helen H. [Iowa State University, Department of Economics, 578 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011 (United States)]. E-mail hhjensen@iastate.edu

2006-07-01

Consumers world-wide are driving changes in the agriculture and food sector. Rising consumer income, changing demographics and lifestyles, and shifting preferences due to new information about the links between diet and health all contribute to new demands for foods. At the same time, technological changes in production, processing and distribution, growth in large-scale retailing, and changes in product availability, as well as expansion of trade world wide, have contributed to a rapidly changing market for food products. Changes in seafood consumption reflect these changes. The changes in consumer consumption patterns, new technologies and trade in product offer both expanded markets as well as new challenges to consumer exposure to food-borne risks. The strict quality control requirements of retail brokers, growth of private labels, and development of value-protecting marketing channels have become increasingly important in food markets. This paper addresses major trends that affect seafood consumption and the market for seafood products and the implications of these changes for consumer risk exposure to food safety hazards. The current economic environment highlights similarities and differences between the developed and developing countries, as well as diversity worldwide in consumption of seafood. Within this context, four major trends affect consumer consumption of foods, including seafood and fish products today: rising income; changing demographics; changing markets for food; and an increasingly global market for food products. Changes in consumer risk exposure to food safety problems are addressed in the context of these trends.

Changes in seafood consumer preference patterns and associated changes in risk exposure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jensen, Helen H. . E-mail hhjensen@iastate.edu

2006-01-01

Consumers world-wide are driving changes in the agriculture and food sector. Rising consumer income, changing demographics and lifestyles, and shifting preferences due to new information about the links between diet and health all contribute to new demands for foods. At the same time, technological changes in production, processing and distribution, growth in large-scale retailing, and changes in product availability, as well as expansion of trade world wide, have contributed to a rapidly changing market for food products. Changes in seafood consumption reflect these changes. The changes in consumer consumption patterns, new technologies and trade in product offer both expanded markets as well as new challenges to consumer exposure to food-borne risks. The strict quality control requirements of retail brokers, growth of private labels, and development of value-protecting marketing channels have become increasingly important in food markets. This paper addresses major trends that affect seafood consumption and the market for seafood products and the implications of these changes for consumer risk exposure to food safety hazards. The current economic environment highlights similarities and differences between the developed and developing countries, as well as diversity worldwide in consumption of seafood. Within this context, four major trends affect consumer consumption of foods, including seafood and fish products today: rising income; changing demographics; changing markets for food; and an increasingly global market for food products. Changes in consumer risk exposure to food safety problems are addressed in the context of these trends

Changes in seafood consumer preference patterns and associated changes in risk exposure.

Science.gov (United States)

Jensen, Helen H

2006-01-01

Consumers world-wide are driving changes in the agriculture and food sector. Rising consumer income, changing demographics and lifestyles, and shifting preferences due to new information about the links between diet and health all contribute to new demands for foods. At the same time, technological changes in production, processing and distribution, growth in large-scale retailing, and changes in product availability, as well as expansion of trade world wide, have contributed to a rapidly changing market for food products. Changes in seafood consumption reflect these changes. The changes in consumer consumption patterns, new technologies and trade in product offer both expanded markets as well as new challenges to consumer exposure to food-borne risks. The strict quality control requirements of retail brokers, growth of private labels, and development of value-protecting marketing channels have become increasingly important in food markets. This paper addresses major trends that affect seafood consumption and the market for seafood products and the implications of these changes for consumer risk exposure to food safety hazards. The current economic environment highlights similarities and differences between the developed and developing countries, as well as diversity worldwide in consumption of seafood. Within this context, four major trends affect consumer consumption of foods, including seafood and fish products today: rising income; changing demographics; changing markets for food; and an increasingly global market for food products. Changes in consumer risk exposure to food safety problems are addressed in the context of these trends.

Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age.

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Armit, Ian; Swindles, Graeme T; Becker, Katharina; Plunkett, Gill; Blaauw, Maarten

2014-12-02

The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological (14)C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

Domestication and human demographic history in South America.

Science.gov (United States)

Perez, S Ivan; Postillone, María Bárbara; Rindel, Diego

2017-05-01

The early groups of hunter-gatherers who peopled South America faced significant ecological changes in their trophic niche for a relatively short period after the initial peopling. In particular, the incorporation of cultigens during the Holocene led to a wider trophic niche and probably to an increased carrying capacity of the environment. Here, we study the relationship between the incorporation of domestic resources during the Holocene and the demographic dynamics of human populations at a regional scale in South America. We employ mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), radiocarbon data and Bayesian methods to estimate differences in population size, human occupation and explore the demographic changes of human populations in three regions (i.e., South-Central Andes, Northwest, and South Patagonia). We also use archaeological evidence to infer the main diet changes in these regions. The absolute population size during the later Late Holocene was fifteen times larger in the South-Central Andes than in Northwest Patagonia, and two times larger in the latter region than in South Patagonia. The South-Central Andes display the earlier and more abrupt population growth, beginning about 9000 years BP, whereas Northwest Patagonia exhibits a more slow growth, beginning about 7000-7500 years BP. South Patagonia represents a later and slower population increase. In this work we uncovered a well-supported pattern of the demographic change in the populations from South-Central Andes and Patagonia, obtained on the basis of different data and quantitative approaches, which suggests that the incorporation of domestic resources was paramount for the demographic expansion of these populations during the Holocene. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Recently Identified Changes to the Demographics of the Current and Future Geoscience Workforce

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, C. E.; Keane, C. M.; Houlton, H. R.

2014-12-01

The American Geosciences Institute's (AGI) Geoscience Workforce Program collects and analyzes data pertaining to the changes in the supply, demand, and training of the geoscience workforce. Much of these trends are displayed in detail in AGI's Status of the Geoscience Workforce reports. In May, AGI released the Status of the Geoscience Workforce 2014, which updates these trends since the 2011 edition of this report. These updates highlight areas of change in the education of future geoscientists from K-12 through graduate school, the transition of geoscience graduates into early-career geoscientists, the dynamics of the current geoscience workforce, and the future predictions of the changes in the availability of geoscience jobs. Some examples of these changes include the increase in the number of states that will allow a high school course of earth sciences as a credit for graduation and the increasing importance of two-year college students as a talent pool for the geosciences, with over 25% of geoscience bachelor's graduates attending a two-year college for at least a semester. The continued increase in field camp hinted that these programs are at or reaching capacity. The overall number of faculty and research staff at four-year institutions increased slightly, but the percentages of academics in tenure-track positions continued to slowly decrease since 2009. However, the percentage of female faculty rose in 2013 for all tenure-track positions. Major geoscience industries, such as petroleum and mining, have seen an influx of early-career geoscientists. Demographic trends in the various industries in the geoscience workforce forecasted a shortage of approximately 135,000 geoscientists in the next decade—a decrease from the previously predicted shortage of 150,000 geoscientists. These changes and other changes identified in the Status of the Geoscience Workforce will be addressed in this talk.

Demographic factors and land-use planning in the small islands of Southern Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Soliani, Lamberto; Rossi, Orazio

1992-09-01

of these new, rapid demographic changes.

Impact of Quaternary climatic changes and interspecific competition on the demographic history of a highly mobile generalist carnivore, the coyote.

Science.gov (United States)

Koblmüller, Stephan; Wayne, Robert K; Leonard, Jennifer A

2012-08-23

Recurrent cycles of climatic change during the Quaternary period have dramatically affected the population genetic structure of many species. We reconstruct the recent demographic history of the coyote (Canis latrans) through the use of Bayesian techniques to examine the effects of Late Quaternary climatic perturbations on the genetic structure of a highly mobile generalist species. Our analysis reveals a lack of phylogeographic structure throughout the range but past population size changes correlated with climatic changes. We conclude that even generalist carnivorous species are very susceptible to environmental changes associated with climatic perturbations. This effect may be enhanced in coyotes by interspecific competition with larger carnivores.

Situational and Demographic Factors in the Sudden Growth of Pall Mall, 2002-2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Anushree; Fix, Brian V; Delnevo, Cristine D; Cummings, K Michael; O'Connor, Richard J

2018-05-03

Pall Mall gained significant brand share in the cigarette market between 2002 and 2013. We sought to determine whether demographic shifts occurred among the participants reporting Pall Mall as their usual brand during this time span. We examined National Survey of Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) data from 2002-2014. Demographic characteristics included age, education, ethnicity, income, and cigarette use (cigarettes per day, daily/non-daily smoking, and nicotine dependence). We also examined RJ Reynolds investor reports and shareholder documents to determine the impact of tobacco marketing on the growth of Pall Mall. Over 2002-2014, Pall Mall has gained among smokers 26 to 34 years of age. More Pall Mall smokers in 2014 report higher incomes (over $75000), and also report lower scores on measures of cigarette dependence, compared to 2002. Pall Mall smokers over time seem to share characteristics of premium cigarette brands smokers. The profile of the typical Pall Mall smoker has changed as the brand has gained market share. An association exists between brand positioning and economic forces, which has contributed to an increase in the market share for Pall Mall. It is well known that cigarette marketing drives the sale of tobacco products. The growth in the market share of Pall Mall serves as an excellent example to demonstrate how economic uncertainty paired with brand positioning and advertising worked together to serve as a catalyst for the rapid growth observed for this brand. This paper also looked at various demographic changes that occurred among Pall Mall smokers over a 12 year period and compared them to smokers of all other cigarette brands. The results of this analysis demonstrate the importance of monitoring trends over time among cigarette smokers.

Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ross, Andrew; Damon Matthews, H

2009-01-01

Recent research has highlighted risks associated with the use of climate engineering as a method of stabilizing global temperatures, including the possibility of rapid climate warming in the case of abrupt removal of engineered radiative forcing. In this study, we have used a simple climate model to estimate the likely range of temperature changes associated with implementation and removal of climate engineering. In the absence of climate engineering, maximum annual rates of warming ranged from 0.015 to 0.07 deg. C/year, depending on the model's climate sensitivity. Climate engineering resulted in much higher rates of warming, with the temperature change in the year following the removal of climate engineering ranging from 0.13 to 0.76 deg. C. High rates of temperature change were sustained for two decades following the removal of climate engineering; rates of change of 0.5 (0.3,0.1) deg. C/decade were exceeded over a 20 year period with 15% (75%, 100%) likelihood. Many ecosystems could be negatively affected by these rates of temperature change; our results suggest that climate engineering in the absence of deep emissions cuts could arguably constitute increased risk of dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system under the criteria laid out in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Health & Demographic Surveillance System profile: the Muzaffarpur-TMRC Health and Demographic Surveillance System.

Science.gov (United States)

Malaviya, Paritosh; Picado, Albert; Hasker, Epco; Ostyn, Bart; Kansal, Sangeeta; Singh, Rudra Pratap; Shankar, Ravi; Boelaert, Marleen; Sundar, Shyam

2014-10-01

The Muzaffarpur-TMRC Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), established in 2007, was developed as an enlargement of the scope of a research collaboration on the project Visceral Leishmaniasis in Bihar, which had been ongoing since 2005. The HDSS is located in a visceral leishmaniasis (VL)-endemic area in the Muzaffarpur district of Bihar state in India. It is the only HDSS conducting research on VL, which is a vector-borne infectious disease transmitted by female phlebotomine sandflies and is fatal if left untreated. Currently the HDSS serves a population of over 105,000 in 66 villages. The HDSS collects data on vital events including pregnancies, births, deaths, migration and marriages, as well as other socio-economic indicators, at regular intervals. Incident VL cases are identified. The HDSS team is experienced in conducting both qualitative and quantitative studies, sample collection and rapid diagnostic tests in the field. In each village, volunteers connect the HDSS team with the community members. The Muzaffarpur-TMRC HDSS provides opportunities for studies on VL and other neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) and their interaction with demographic events such as migration. Queries related to research collaborations and data sharing can be sent to Dr Shyam Sundar at [drshyamsundar@hotmail.com]. © The Author 2014; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Public pensions, family allowances and endogenous demographic change.

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, W

1995-05-01

"A tax-transfer system deals with redistribution a PAYGmong generations and corrective taxation a PAYGt the same time. Since such a policy is a government's task, we take a normative approach and pose the question: Which tax-transfer system should a government apply to maximize social welfare? The framework we consider allows for endogenous demographic aspects...: first, fertility has a great impact on a PAYG [pay-as-you-go] financed pension insurance; and second, through education human capital is accumulated.... We analyzed the optimal extent of a public pension scheme in the presence of external effects of fertility and education on the net domestic product." Pension schemes in Germany and the United States are compared. excerpt

Rapid Fishery Assessment by Market Survey (RFAMS--an improved rapid-assessment approach to characterising fish landings in developing countries.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

William T White

Full Text Available The complex multi-gear, multi-species tropical fisheries in developing countries are poorly understood and characterising the landings from these fisheries is often impossible using conventional approaches. A rapid assessment method for characterising landings at fish markets, using an index of abundance and estimated weight within taxonomic groups, is described. This approach was developed for contexts where there are no detailed data collection protocols, and where consistent data collection across a wide range of fisheries types and geographic areas is required, regardless of the size of the site and scale of the landings. This methodology, which was demonstrated at seven fish landing sites/fish markets in southern Indonesia between July 2008 and January 2011, provides a rapid assessment of the abundance and diversity in the wild catch over a wide variety of taxonomic groups. The approach has wider application for species-rich fisheries in developing countries where there is an urgent need for better data collection protocols, monitoring future changes in market demographics, and evaluating health of fisheries.

Serbian demographers on demography

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rašević Mirjana

2013-01-01

ageing were singled out the most as significant for examining in the immediate future. The inclusion of Stanovništvo on the Science Citation Information Journal List and expanding the circle of authors were the basic recommendations of the respondents regarding better quality of the journal. All interviewed experts mentioned various kinds of knowledge and characteristics necessary for demographers to posses in order to be successful. Contrary to the homogeneous opinion that a demographer should be a superior-researcher, a wide range of responses were given to the question regarding selecting the best indicator for determining the successfulness of researchers in the study of population. As many as eight out of ten interviewed experts believe population ageing is the greatest population challenge which Serbia is facing. However, a low level of consensus appeared among the demographers as regards the range of the political response. Namely, five experts declared they were pessimists in view of the possibilities for mitigating the challenge they singled out. On the contrary, five interviewed experts expressed optimism, as they believe in the economic development of Serbia, the possibilities of institutional adjustments to demographic changes, and/or in man and his rationality. Conclusion: Demographers in Serbia highly appreciate the discipline they belong to. At the same time they are strict critics and have high expectations in all matters dealing with demography. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III 47006: Istraživanje demografskih fenomena u funkciji javnih politika u Srbiji

Men and Cosmetics: Social and Psychological Trends of an Emerging Demographic.

Science.gov (United States)

Rieder, Evan A; Mu, Euphemia W; Brauer, Jeremy A

2015-09-01

Though still accounting for a small fraction of all cosmetic procedures in the United States, men are an emerging and rapidly expanding demographic in the field of aesthetic medicine. In this article we highlight the trends contributing to the rise of male aesthetic procedures in dermatology, touching on social influences, psychological motivations, and treatment outcomes.

Use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in US adults: changes over time and by demographic.

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Jennifer S; Lee, Hwa Young; Kim, Jihye; Advani, Shailesh M; Peng, Ho-Lan; Banfield, Emilyn; Hawk, Ernest T; Chang, Shine; Frazier-Wood, Alexis C

2017-01-01

Aspirin and non-aspirin non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are preventive against cardiovascular disease (CVD) and several cancer types, but long-term use has been associated with significant health risks, resulting in conflicting recommendations on NSAID use for prevention of CVD and cancer. Previous research indicates that aspirin use increases with age and CVD risk factors and that a large percentage of the US population regularly use analgesics, including NSAIDs, but there has not been a recent, in-depth assessment of NSAID use prevalence, changes in use over time or predictors of NSAID use in the USA. We used the cross-sectional, National Health And Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 1988 to 1994 and three continuous cycles (1999-2004) to assess regular NSAID use prevalence, changes over time and predictors of regular NSAID use. Overall, regular NSAID use increased over time and varied by demographic features. Participants over 60 years of age, women, participants with high body mass index, increased waist circumference or heart disease were significantly more likely to be regular NSAID users. By contrast, non-Hispanic African American and Mexican American participants were significantly less likely to regularly use NSAIDs. This study uses a nationally representative data set (NHANES) to provide an exploration of regular NSAID use patterns over time, highlighting several demographic, lifestyle and clinical conditions associated with regular NSAID use. Understanding who is likely to regularly use NSAIDs enables more targeted messaging both for increasing the preventive benefits and for limiting the toxicities associated with regular use of NSAIDs.

Bulgaria: Ethnic differentials in rapidly declining fertility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dimiter Philipov

2008-07-01

Full Text Available This chapter provides a detailed description of the fertility changes in Bulgaria during recent decades and discusses possible reasons and consequences. It also gives an overview of the steps that the government has undertaken to offset the considerable decline in fertility. Before the fall of communism, fertility trends in Bulgaria were stable and characterized by a nearly universal entry into parenthood, dominance of a two-child family model, an early start and early end of childbearing, stable mean ages at entry into childbearing and marriage, and low percentages of non-marital births. During the 1990s and in the first years of the new century, we observe a marked, rapid change in fertility behaviour. Together with the severe decline in overall fertility rates, demographic data reveal a significant postponement of entry into motherhood and marriage, a decline of the two-child family model, and an emergence of new family forms. Most research attributes these changes to the particular political and social situation in Bulgaria since 1989.

Demographic Trends in Germany and their Economic Implications

OpenAIRE

Rembrandt Scholz; Carsten Schröder

2012-01-01

The present paper explores demographic trends in Germany, as well as the determinants of these trends, and the economic implications of these demographic changes for the country. A detailed spatial analysis reveals substantial differences in the speed and intensity of the processes of population aging and population decline across the German regions. The results indicate that these processes are particularly pronounced in the state of Mecklenburg Western-Pomerania. As a new contribution to th...

Detecting recent changes in the demographic parameters of drosophilid populations from western and central Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Bouiges, Axelle; Yassin, Amir; Ikogou, Maya; Lelarge, Clément; Sikoa, Axelle-Rolande; Mona, Stefano; Veuille, Michel

2013-07-01

Previous genetic studies showing evidence of past demographic changes in African drosophilids suggested that these populations had strongly responded to Quaternary climate changes. We surveyed nine species of Zaprionus, a drosophilid genus mostly present in Africa, in forests located between southern Senegal and Gabon. The mitochondrial COI gene showed contrasted levels of sequence variation across species. Populations of the only cosmopolitan species of the genus, Z. indianus, and of its closely related sibling species, Z. africanus, are highly polymorphic and appear to have undergone a continuous population expansion beginning about 130,000 years ago. Five less variable species probably underwent a population expansion beginning only about 20,000-30,000 years ago. One of them, Z. taronus, was significantly structured between forest blocks. The last two species were nearly monomorphic, probably due to infection by Wolbachia. These results are similar to those obtained in three species from the melanogaster subgroup, and may be typical of the responses of African drosophilid populations to glacial cycles.

A bioinspired color-changing polystyrene microarray as a rapid qualitative sensor for methanol and ethanol

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuo, Wen-Kai; Weng, Hsueh-Ping; Hsu, Jyun-Jheng; Yu, Hsin Her

2016-01-01

Polystyrene (PS) microspheres were synthesized by emulsifier-free emulsion polymerization and arranged in an array of closely packed, opal-like photonic crystals by slow self-assembly through dip-coating. This periodic array of PS microspheres was then employed as a rapid qualitative sensor for methanol and ethanol. Both solvents could be detected rapidly based on the routes of their reflection coordinates in the chromaticity diagram or directly by the naked eye on the basis of the change in color within 1 min once a solvent sample had been placed on the PS photochromic sensor. This opal-like PS sensor can thus not only be employed as a rapid sensor for methanol and ethanol but can also be used as a powerful tool for the fast screening of illicit drugs and toxic chemicals during forensic investigations. - Highlights: • Opal-like array of polystyrene (PS) microspheres is synthesized by self-assembly. • This periodic PS array is used as a rapid sensor for methanol and ethanol. • Solvents are detected by routes of reflection coordinates in chromaticity diagram. • They are also detected directly by naked eye based on change in color of sensor. • The color change is irreversible for methanol but reversible for ethanol.

A bioinspired color-changing polystyrene microarray as a rapid qualitative sensor for methanol and ethanol

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kuo, Wen-Kai, E-mail: wkkuo@nfu.edu.tw [Graduate Institute of Electro-Optical and Materials Science, National Formosa University, 64 Wenhua Road, Huwei, Yunlin 63208, Taiwan (China); Weng, Hsueh-Ping, E-mail: sherry.weng7949@gmail.com [Graduate Institute of Electro-Optical and Materials Science, National Formosa University, 64 Wenhua Road, Huwei, Yunlin 63208, Taiwan (China); Hsu, Jyun-Jheng, E-mail: k88520x@gmail.com [Graduate Institute of Electro-Optical and Materials Science, National Formosa University, 64 Wenhua Road, Huwei, Yunlin 63208, Taiwan (China); Yu, Hsin Her, E-mail: hhyu@nfu.edu.tw [Department of Biotechnology, National Formosa University, 64 Wenhua Road, Huwei, Yunlin 63208, Taiwan (China)

2016-04-15

Polystyrene (PS) microspheres were synthesized by emulsifier-free emulsion polymerization and arranged in an array of closely packed, opal-like photonic crystals by slow self-assembly through dip-coating. This periodic array of PS microspheres was then employed as a rapid qualitative sensor for methanol and ethanol. Both solvents could be detected rapidly based on the routes of their reflection coordinates in the chromaticity diagram or directly by the naked eye on the basis of the change in color within 1 min once a solvent sample had been placed on the PS photochromic sensor. This opal-like PS sensor can thus not only be employed as a rapid sensor for methanol and ethanol but can also be used as a powerful tool for the fast screening of illicit drugs and toxic chemicals during forensic investigations. - Highlights: • Opal-like array of polystyrene (PS) microspheres is synthesized by self-assembly. • This periodic PS array is used as a rapid sensor for methanol and ethanol. • Solvents are detected by routes of reflection coordinates in chromaticity diagram. • They are also detected directly by naked eye based on change in color of sensor. • The color change is irreversible for methanol but reversible for ethanol.

Demographic change and marriage choices in one Carib family.

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, K

1994-03-01

The demographic adaptation of a family of Topside Caribs along the Barama River in Guyana was studied. The family history included two grandfather and granddaughter marriages. Jack Raymond's father, who was born in 1870, left Bottomside after the death of his wife in the 1920s and settled above the falls of the Barama River (Topside in Sawari) with the hope of subsistence living off the rain forest. Information on the grandfather generation was made difficult by name changes, general references to all men in the second generation as grandfathers, and the focus on father's and mother's generation. The typical pattern was for brothers to live close by, and intermarry with a family of sisters. Female children married mother's brothers' sons or father's sisters sons. Their children formed their own cluster settlements. The early history indicated economic hardship, loss of wives, and difficulties in remarrying. The Baird chronicles of the reintroduction of gold mining and the ethnography of Gillin indicated that malaria and round worm were diseases affecting the indigenous population during the 1920s and 1930s. The Topside population was supported by the local gold-mining economy, while the Bottomside population suffered economic hardship and high infant mortality. In the Jack Raymond family, remarriage resulted in children marrying cross cousins. The younger daughter married in the 1940s, when subsistence production of cassava and hunting and gold-mining income provided the family's livelihood. The daughter had 10 surviving children, compared to her adoptive mother's two. For the daughter's generation, the first pregnancy occurred between the ages of 18 and 22 years, and birth spacing was 20-30 months for 25 years. Neither polygyny nor monogamy affected the potential for 12 children. In this Baramita Air Strip population in 1971, there were 62 mothers; reproductive histories were available for 59. The changes in reproductive patterns after 1940 were apparent: for

Rapid treatment-induced brain changes in pediatric CRPS.

Science.gov (United States)

Erpelding, Nathalie; Simons, Laura; Lebel, Alyssa; Serrano, Paul; Pielech, Melissa; Prabhu, Sanjay; Becerra, Lino; Borsook, David

2016-03-01

To date, brain structure and function changes in children with complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) as a result of disease and treatment remain unknown. Here, we investigated (a) gray matter (GM) differences between patients with CRPS and healthy controls and (b) GM and functional connectivity (FC) changes in patients following intensive interdisciplinary psychophysical pain treatment. Twenty-three patients (13 females, 9 males; average age ± SD = 13.3 ± 2.5 years) and 21 healthy sex- and age-matched controls underwent magnetic resonance imaging. Compared to controls, patients had reduced GM in the primary motor cortex, premotor cortex, supplementary motor area, midcingulate cortex, orbitofrontal cortex, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC), posterior cingulate cortex, precuneus, basal ganglia, thalamus, and hippocampus. Following treatment, patients had increased GM in the dlPFC, thalamus, basal ganglia, amygdala, and hippocampus, and enhanced FC between the dlPFC and the periaqueductal gray, two regions involved in descending pain modulation. Accordingly, our results provide novel evidence for GM abnormalities in sensory, motor, emotional, cognitive, and pain modulatory regions in children with CRPS. Furthermore, this is the first study to demonstrate rapid treatment-induced GM and FC changes in areas implicated in sensation, emotion, cognition, and pain modulation.

[Some unique characteristics of the demographic situation in Russia].

Science.gov (United States)

Brui, B; Mikhailov, E

1991-01-01

The authors briefly describe the demographic situation in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic, using data from the 1989 census and current demographic research. Changes in the birth rate and population growth are examined, and migration flows in the various regions of the republic are compared. Factors affecting low birth rates are analyzed, and trends in marriage, divorce, mortality, and life expectancy are explored.

Trends and opportunities abroad, 1987: an annual special publication of International Demographics.

Science.gov (United States)

1986-12-01

To facilitate understanding of the consumer market potential of today's world, "International Demographics" clusters the world's 150 largest countries based on their demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. The names of the 5 clusters--The Dependents, The Seekers, The Climbers, The Ultimate Consumers, and The Rocking Chairs--help identify the kind of consumer markets the countries represent. The 150 countries included in this 1987 volume are considered potential markets and are organized by cluster. All data cited are the most current numbers available, and all population estimates are the latest projections by the Center for International Research, US Census Bureau. Population trends of the next 14 years will change existing markets, and open new markets. However, due to rapid population growth in the poorest of the world economy, the Dependent countries, only intensified efforts on the part of the countries themselves and increased assistance from the international development community can pull these countries up. The sheer size of the market in Seeker and Climber countries is sufficient to indicate increased consumer demand. Add to that increasing income, the predominance of youth, and the ongoing rural-to-urban shift, and it is clear that demand will center on consumer durables for beginning families as the large proportions of youth will center on consumer durables for beginning families as the large proportions of youth enter their prime spending years of 15-64. Construction, sanitation, power, telecommunications, and transport are expected to boom as youth add pressure to urban job markets and housing. Slowed or stagnated growth in the rapidly aging Ultimate Consumer and Rocking Chair countries tells a different story. Some Rocking Chair countries such as West Germany already are experiencing natural decrease. Market growth in the Ultimate Consumer and Rocking Chair countries is geared to the increasingly sophisticated tastes and needs of the elderly

Strategic Enrollment Management in the Age of Austerity and Changing Demographics: Managing Recruitment, Leveraging, Revenue, and Access in Challenging Economic Times

Science.gov (United States)

Langston, Randall; Scheid, Jamie

2014-01-01

Ever since the beginning of the Great Recession, higher education has braced for the impending age of austerity and changing demographics. Now a reality, these conditions threaten the ability of institutions of higher education to remain competitive in an ever growing global marketplace. This article presents several core SEM strategies that can…

The population in China’s earthquake-prone areas has increased by over 32 million along with rapid urbanization

Science.gov (United States)

He, Chunyang; Huang, Qingxu; Dou, Yinyin; Tu, Wei; Liu, Jifu

2016-07-01

Accurate assessments of the population exposed to seismic hazard are crucial in seismic risk mapping. Recent rapid urbanization in China has resulted in substantial changes in the size and structure of the population exposed to seismic hazard. Using the latest population census data and seismic maps, this work investigated spatiotemporal changes in the exposure of the population in the most seismically hazardous areas (MSHAs) in China from 1990 to 2010. In the context of rapid urbanization and massive rural-to-urban migration, nearly one-tenth of the Chinese population in 2010 lived in MSHAs. From 1990 to 2010, the MSHA population increased by 32.53 million at a significantly higher rate of change (33.6%) than the national average rate (17.7%). The elderly population in MSHAs increased by 81.4%, which is much higher than the group’s national growth rate of 58.9%. Greater attention should be paid to the demographic changes in earthquake-prone areas in China.

Rapid City Native American Population Needs Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Farrokhi, Abdollah

1993-01-01

Interviews with 301 Native American households in Rapid City, South Dakota, examined demographic variables and attitudes and needs in the areas of education, housing, transportation, health care, recreation, and employment. The ultimate goals for Native American people are achieving empowerment and group determination through greater cultural…

Correlates of rapid neuroleptic response in male patients with schizophrenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Petrie, E C; Faustman, W O; Moses, J A; Lombrozo, L; Csernansky, J G

1990-08-01

Correlates of neuroleptic response latency were assessed in 16 male schizophrenic inpatients during 4 weeks of fixed dose (20 mg/day) haloperidol treatment. Rapid responders showed a mean 40% reduction in Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) positive symptom scores by day 10 of treatment. Rapid responders had significantly lower plasma homovanillic acid (pHVA) concentrations compared to non-rapid responders during week 4 of haloperidol treatment. However, rapid versus non-rapid responders did not differ with respect to demographics, baseline positive or negative BPRS symptom scores, performance on tests of neuropsychological function, or mean plasma haloperidol concentrations.

Behavioral, demographic, psychosocial, and sociocultural concomitants of stage of change for physical activity behavior in a mixed-culture sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Cardinal, Bradley J; Lee, Jong-Young; Kim, Young-Ho; Lee, Hyo; Li, Kin-Kit; Si, Qi

2009-01-01

Examine behavioral, demographic, psychosocial, and sociocultural concomitants of the stages of change for physical activity behavior among college students in South Korea (n = 221) and the United States (n = 166). Measures obtained in this cross-sectional study included age; body mass index; nationality; gender; exercise behavior; processes of change; decisional balance; self-efficacy; stage of change; and predisposing, reinforcing, and enabling factors. The amount of variance explained for stage of change by the transtheoretical model constructs (i.e., decisional balance, processes of change, self-efficacy) ranged from 11% to 29% (all p behavior (OR = 1.04; p behavioral processes of change (OR = 1.12; p change. In terms of physical activity behavior, South Korean women were more likely than South Korean men to be in the early stages, whereas American men were slightly more likely to be in the early stages than American women when all the concomitants were accounted for. Among the psychosocial stage of change concomitants, only the behavioral processes of change were found to be important.

Genetic diversity and demographic evolution of baobab (Adansonia ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Ezedom Theresa

2013-09-18

Sep 18, 2013 ... population of Ferlo has undergone a recent demographic expansion. Although .... diseases, parasites, predators and environmental change. (Amos and ..... Baobab (Adansonia digitata L.) in Rural West African Subsistence-.

How Rapid Change Affects Deltas in the Arctic Region

Science.gov (United States)

Overeem, I.; Bendixen, M.

2017-12-01

Deltas form where the river drains into the ocean. Consequently, delta depositional processes are impacted by either changes in the respective river drainage basin or by changes in the regional marine environment. In a warming Arctic region rapid change has occurred over the last few decades in both the terrestrial domain as well as in the marine domain. Important terrestrial controls include 1) change in permafrost possibly destabilizing river banks, 2) strong seasonality of river discharge due to a short melting season, 3) high sediment supply if basins are extensively glaciated, 4) lake outbursts and ice jams favoring river flooding. Whereas in the Arctic marine domain sea ice loss promotes wave and storm surge impact, and increased longshore transport. We here ask which of these factors dominate any morphological change in Arctic deltas. First, we analyze hydrological data to assess change in Arctic-wide river discharge characteristics and timing, and sea ice concentration data to map changes in sea ice regime. Based on this observational analysis we set up a number of scenarios of change. We then model hypothetical small-scale delta formation considering change in these primary controls by setting up a numerical delta model, and combining it dynamically with a permafrost model. We find that for typical Greenlandic deltas changes in river forcing due to ice sheet melt dominate the morphological change, which is corroborated by mapping of delta progradation from aerial photos and satellite imagery. Whereas in other areas, along the North Slope and the Canadian Arctic small deltas are more stable or experienced retreat. Our preliminary coupled model allows us to further disentangle the impact of major forcing factors on delta evolution in high-latitude systems.

Contemporary demographic changes in settlements along the administrative line in Serbia towards autonomous province of Kosovo and Metohija

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vukoičić Danijela

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The settlements along the administrative line in Serbia towards Kosovo and Metohija had a very turbulent demographic changes in the past. These changes have influenced the present. In this paper we investigated the depopulation process of this area which is intensified with the political instability, social and economic changes. The main goal of this research was to analyze the causes and effects in the reduction of the number of inhabitants, as well as the possibility of revitalizing the rural settlements of a given area. To obtain the desired results, we analyzed the existing literature and statistical data, used comparative and historical methods as well as implemented the field surveys. The application of the SWOT analysis to the researched area have showed us the strength, weakness, opportunities, and threats that can effect the process of revitalization of the village.

Total rewards that retain: A study of demographic preferences

OpenAIRE

Monica Pregnolato; Mark H.R. Bussin; Anton F. Schlechter

2017-01-01

Orientation: Changing workplace demographics and a dearth of employees with scarce skills have forced employers to better understand the various factors that retain talented employees. Research purpose: In this empirical study, the reward preferences and ideal combination of total reward elements (based on an estimation of their relative importance) that retain employees from various demographic groups, including employees of different race, gender and age groups, were investigated. M...

Changes in food habits after migration among South Asians settled in Oslo: the effect of demographic, socio-economic and integration factors.

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Wandel, Margareta; Råberg, Marte; Kumar, Bernadette; Holmboe-Ottesen, Gerd

2008-01-01

The aim is to explore changes in food habits after migration, and the resultant present food consumption patterns, as well as the effect of demographic, socio-economic and integration factors on these changes. Analyses were based on data collected through the Oslo Immigrant Health study, from 629 persons 30-60 years of age, born in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and living in Oslo, Norway. A majority of the Sri Lankans reported increase in the consumption of meat, milk, butter, margarine and potatoes. Around half of those from Pakistan reported increased consumption of oil, meat, fish and potatoes. Both groups reported a decrease in bean and lentil consumption. Multivariate regression showed that age was negatively related to increases in butter and margarine consumption, and a good command of the Norwegian language reduced the likelihood of increased consumption of oil and butter. The likelihood of having present fat and sugar rich food patterns were reduced with age and years of education, whereas scoring high on an index of integration increased the likelihood of a fat rich food pattern. In conclusion, a number of demographic and socio-cultural factors may modify the changes in food habits after migration. Some of these may have substantial health implications.

The impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030, and the potential from rapid, inclusive and climate-informed development

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Rozenberg, J.; Hallegatte, S.

2016-12-01

There is a consensus on the fact that poor people are more vulnerable to climate change than the rest of the population, but, until recently, few quantified estimates had been proposed and few frameworks existed to design policies for addressing the issue. In this paper, we analyze the impacts of climate change on poverty using micro-simulation approaches. We start from household surveys that describe the current distribution of income and occupations, we project these households into the future and we look at the impacts of climate change on people's income. To project households into the future, we explore a large range of assumptions on future demographic changes (including on education), technological changes, and socio-economic trends (including redistribution policies). This approach allows us to identify the main combination of factors that lead to fast poverty reduction, and the ones that lead to high climate change impacts on the poor. Identifying these factors is critical for designing efficient policies to protect the poorest from climate change impacts and making economic growth more inclusive. Conclusions are twofold. First, by 2030 climate change can have a large impact on poverty, with between 3 and 122 million more people in poverty, but climate change remains a secondary driver of poverty trends within this time horizon. Climate change impacts do not only affect the poorest: in 2030, the bottom 40 percent lose more than 4 percent of income in many countries. The regional hotspots are Sub-Saharan Africa and - to a lesser extent - India and the rest of South Asia. The most important channel through which climate change increases poverty is through agricultural income and food prices. Second, by 2030 and in the absence of surprises on climate impacts, inclusive climate-informed development can prevent most of (but not all) the impacts on poverty. In a scenario with rapid, inclusive and climate-proof development, climate change impact on poverty is

Cosmic rays linked to rapid mid-latitude cloud changes

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B. A. Laken

2010-11-01

Full Text Available The effect of the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR flux on Earth's climate is highly uncertain. Using a novel sampling approach based around observing periods of significant cloud changes, a statistically robust relationship is identified between short-term GCR flux changes and the most rapid mid-latitude (60°–30° N/S cloud decreases operating over daily timescales; this signal is verified in surface level air temperature (SLAT reanalysis data. A General Circulation Model (GCM experiment is used to test the causal relationship of the observed cloud changes to the detected SLAT anomalies. Results indicate that the anomalous cloud changes were responsible for producing the observed SLAT changes, implying that if there is a causal relationship between significant decreases in the rate of GCR flux (~0.79 GU, where GU denotes a change of 1% of the 11-year solar cycle amplitude in four days and decreases in cloud cover (~1.9 CU, where CU denotes a change of 1% cloud cover in four days, an increase in SLAT (~0.05 KU, where KU denotes a temperature change of 1 K in four days can be expected. The influence of GCRs is clearly distinguishable from changes in solar irradiance and the interplanetary magnetic field. However, the results of the GCM experiment are found to be somewhat limited by the ability of the model to successfully reproduce observed cloud cover. These results provide perhaps the most compelling evidence presented thus far of a GCR-climate relationship. From this analysis we conclude that a GCR-climate relationship is governed by both short-term GCR changes and internal atmospheric precursor conditions.

Understanding the Rapid Reduction of Undernutrition in Nepal, 2001-2011.

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Derek D Headey

Full Text Available South Asia has long been synonymous with unusually high rates of undernutrition. In the past decade, however, Nepal has arguably achieved the fastest recorded decline in child stunting in the world and has done so in the midst of civil war and post-conflict political instability. Given recent interest in reducing undernutrition-particularly the role of nutrition-sensitive policies-this paper aims to quantitatively understand this surprising success story by analyzing the 2001, 2006, and 2011 rounds of Nepal's Demographic Health Surveys. To do so, we construct models of the intermediate determinants of child and maternal nutritional change and then decompose predicted changes in nutrition outcomes over time. We identify four broad drivers of change: asset accumulation, health and nutrition interventions, maternal educational gains, and improvements in sanitation. Many of these changes were clearly influenced by policy decisions, including increased public investments in health and education and community-led health and sanitation campaigns. Other factors, such as rapid growth in migration-based remittances, are more a reflection of household responses to changing political and economic circumstances.

[Twenty-second conference of the Czechoslovak Demographic Society: "The Demographic Position of Czechoslovakia within Europe and the World"].

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Fialova, L; Rychtarikova, J; Roubicek, V; Stloukal, L; Veres, P; Koschin, F; Novakova, B; Pavlik, Z

1992-01-01

This is a collection of short papers presented at a conference held in Prague, Czechoslovakia, in 1991. The focus of the conference was on the demographic changes that have occurred in Czechoslovakia since World War II and their relationship to such changes in the rest of Europe and elsewhere in the world. Essay topics include fertility trends; contraceptive prevalence, including abortion rates; living standards and health care; and changes in the age structure. Some data for selected countries are included for comparison. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)

Stability and change in alcohol habits of different socio-demographic subgroups--a cohort study.

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Sydén, Lovisa; Wennberg, Peter; Forsell, Yvonne; Romelsjö, Anders

2014-05-29

Stability in alcohol habits varies over time and in subgroups, but there are few longitudinal studies assessing stability in alcohol habits by socio-demographic subgroups and potential predictors of stability and change. The aim was to study stability and change in alcohol habits by sex, age, and socio-economic position (SEP). Data derived from two longitudinal population based studies in Sweden; the PART study comprising 19 457 individuals aged 20-64 years in 1998-2000, and the Stockholm Public Health Cohort (SPHC) with 50 067 individuals aged 18-84 years in 2002. Both cohorts were followed-up twice; PART 2000-2003 and 2010, and SPHC 2007 and 2010. Alcohol habits were measured with the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT), and with normal weekly alcohol consumption (NWAC). Stability in alcohol habits was measured with intraclass correlation. Odds ratios were estimated in multinomial logistic regression analysis to predict stability in alcohol habits. For the two drinking measures there were no consistent patterns of stability in alcohol habits by sex or educational level. The stability was higher for older age groups and self-employed women. To be a man aged 30-39 at baseline predicted both increase and decrease in alcohol habits. The findings illustrate higher stability in alcohol habits with increasing age and among self-employed women with risky alcohol habits. To be a man and the age 30-39 predicted change in alcohol habits. No conclusive pattern of socio-economic position as predictor of change in alcohol habits was found and other studies of potential predictors seem warranted.

Engaging Chicago residents in climate change action: Results from Rapid Ethnographic Inquiry

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Lynne M. Westphal; Jennifer. Hirsch

2010-01-01

Addressing climate change requires action at all levels of society, from neighborhood to international levels. Using Rapid Ethnography rooted in Asset Based Community Development theory, we investigated climate-friendly attitudes and behaviors in two Chicago neighborhoods in order to assist the City with implementation of its Climate Action Plan. Our research suggests...

Tracking and unpacking rapid Arctic change: Indicators of community health and sustainability in northern Alaska and links to cryospheric change

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Eicken, H.; Sam, J. M.; Mueller-stoffels, M.; Lovecraft, A. L.; Fresco, N. L.

2017-12-01

Tracking and responding to rapid Arctic change benefits from time series of indicator variables that describe the state of the system and can inform anticipatory action. A key challenge is to identify and monitor sets of indicators that capture relevant variability, trends, and transitions in social-environmental systems. We present findings from participatory scenarios focused on community health and sustainability in northern Alaska. In a series of workshops in 2015 and 2016 (Kotzebue workshop photo shown below), over 50 experts, mostly local, identified determinants of community health and sustainability by 2040 in the Northwest Arctic and North Slope Boroughs, Alaska. Drawing on further research, an initial set of factors and uncertainties was refined and prioritized into a total of 20 key drivers, ranging from governance issues to socio-economic and environmental factors. The research team then developed sets of future projections that describe plausible outcomes by mid-century for each of these drivers. A plausibility and consistency analysis of all pairwise combinations of these projections (following Mueller-Stoffels and Eicken, In: North by 2020 - Perspectives on Alaska's Changing Social-Ecological Systems, University of Alaska Press, 2011) resulted in the identification of robust scenarios. The latter were further reviewed by workshop participants, and a set of indicator variables, including indicators of relevant cryospheric change, was identified to help track trajectories towards plausible future states. Publically accessible recorded data only exist for a subset of the more than 70 indicators, reaching back a few years to several decades. For several indicators, the sampling rate or time series length are insufficient for tracking of and response to change. A core set of variables has been identified that meets indicator requirements and can serve as a tool for Alaska Arctic communities in adapting to or mitigating rapid change affecting community

The demographic transition influences variance in fitness and selection on height and BMI in rural Gambia.

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Courtiol, Alexandre; Rickard, Ian J; Lummaa, Virpi; Prentice, Andrew M; Fulford, Anthony J C; Stearns, Stephen C

2013-05-20

Recent human history is marked by demographic transitions characterized by declines in mortality and fertility. By influencing the variance in those fitness components, demographic transitions can affect selection on other traits. Parallel to changes in selection triggered by demography per se, relationships between fitness and anthropometric traits are also expected to change due to modification of the environment. Here we explore for the first time these two main evolutionary consequences of demographic transitions using a unique data set containing survival, fertility, and anthropometric data for thousands of women in rural Gambia from 1956-2010. We show how the demographic transition influenced directional selection on height and body mass index (BMI). We observed a change in selection for both traits mediated by variation in fertility: selection initially favored short females with high BMI values but shifted across the demographic transition to favor tall females with low BMI values. We demonstrate that these differences resulted both from changes in fitness variance that shape the strength of selection and from shifts in selective pressures triggered by environmental changes. These results suggest that demographic and environmental trends encountered by current human populations worldwide are likely to modify, but not stop, natural selection in humans. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Knox meets Cox: adapting epidemiological space-time statistics to demographic studies.

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Schmertmann, Carl P; Assuçãon, Renato M; Potter, Joseph E

2010-08-01

Many important questions and theories in demography focus on changes over time, and on how those changes differ over geographic and social space. Space-time analysis has always been important in studying fertility transitions, for example. However demographers have seldom used formal statistical methods to describe and analyze time series of maps. One formal method, used widely in epidemiology, criminology, and public health, is Knox 's space-time interaction test. In this article, we discuss the potential of the Knox test in demographic research and note some possible pitfalls. We demonstrate how to use familiar proportional hazards models to adapt the Knox test for demographic applications. These adaptations allow for nonrepeatable events and for the incorporation of structural variables that change in space and time. We apply the modified test to data on the onset offertility decline in Brazil over 1960-2000 and show how the modified method can produce maps indicating where and when diffusion effects seem strongest, net of covariate effects.

The Demographic Crisis and Global Migration - Selected Issues

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Frątczak, Ewa Zofia

2016-01-01

Currently the world is undergoing a serious demographic shift, characterised by slowing population growth in developed countries. However, the population in certain less-developed regions of the world is still increasing. According to UN data, as of 2015, (World...2015), 244 million people (or 3.3% of the global population) lived outside their country of birth. While most of these migrants travel abroad looking for better economic and social conditions, there are also those forced to move by political crises, revolutions and war. Such migration is being experienced currently in Europe, a continent which is thus going through both a demographic crisis related to the low fertility rate and population ageing, and a migration crisis. Global migrations link up inseparably with demographic transformation processes taking place globally and resulting in the changing tempo of population growth. Attracting and discouraging migration factors are changing at the same time, as is the scale and range of global migration, and with these also the global consequences. The focus of work addressed in this paper is on global population, the demographic transformation and the role of global migrations, as well as the range and scale of international migration, and selected aspects of global migrations including participation in the global labour market, the scale of monetary transfers (remittances) and the place of global migration in the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (Transforming...2015) and the Europe of two crises (Domeny 2016).

Environmental impacts of rapid water level changes; Miljoekonsekvenser av raske vannstandsendringer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arnekleiv, Jo Vegar; Bakken, Tor Haakon; Bogen, Jim; Boensnes, Truls Erik; Elster, Margrethe; Harby, Atle; Kutznetsova, Yulia; Saltveit, Svein Jakob; Sauterleute, Julian; Stickler, Morten; Sundt, Haakon; Tjomsland, Torulv; Ugedal, Ola

2012-07-01

This report summarizes the state of knowledge of the environmental impacts of power driving and rapid water level changes and describes possible mitigation measures. The report assesses the environmental effects of possible increased power installation in Mauranger and Tonstad power plants, based on existing data and knowledge. At Straumsmo plants in Barduelva there are collected some physical data and the environmental impact of existing power driving is considered. (eb)

Mobile work: Ergonomics in a rapidly changing work environment.

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Honan, Meg

2015-01-01

Places of work have been completely transformed by innovations in mobile work tools and ever-present access to internet data. This article characterizes use patterns and provides preliminary considerations for productive and comfortable use of common mobile devices. Two surveys described trends in mobile work. In the first, ergonomics professionals who oversee programs reported common mobile devices, their users and what data is accessed. The second, an end user survey, explored common activities performed on mobile devices, duration of use and locations where mobile work is common. The survey results provide a baseline data point for the status of mobile work in early 2014. Research indicates that additional risks have been introduced to the neck, thumbs and hands when using mobile devices. Possible trends regarding device use and work locations emerge. Intervention studies provide some direction for the practitioner. Practical strategies are outlined to reduce exposure intensity and duration. Contemporary mobile work presents tremendous change and opportunity for ergonomists and researchers to keep pace with fitting the changing models of work to the person. Continued research is needed on current mobile device use patterns to better understand ergonomic risk exposure in this rapidly changing realm.

Rapid changes in protein phosphorylation associated with gravity perception in corn roots

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McFadden, J.J.; Poovaiah, B.W.

1987-01-01

A previous paper from this laboratory showed calcium- and calmodulin-dependent in vivo protein phosphorylation in corn root tips. The authors show that rapid changes in calcium-dependent protein phosphorylation are involved in light-dependent graviperception in corn root tips. Corn seedlings (Zea mays L, cv Merit) were grown in the dark for 3 d, then apical root segments were harvested in dim green light to measure in vivo protein phosphorylation. Segments were incubated with 0.5 mCi 32 P for 1 h, then immediately frozen in liquid N 2 or first treated with either 7 min light, or 7 min light plus 1 mM EGTA and 10 μM A23187. Labeled proteins were separated by 2D gel electrophoresis and detected by autoradiography. Light caused rapid and specific promotion of phosphorylation of 5 polypeptides. The increases in protein phosphorylation were reversed by treating with EGTA and A23187. The authors postulate that these changes in protein phosphorylation are an essential part of the light-dependent gravity response in Merit roots

Demographic model of the Neolithic transition in Central Europe

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Patrik Galeta

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Several recent lines of evidence indicate more intensive contact between LBK farmers and indigenous foragers in Central Europe (5600–5400 calBC. Strong continuity has been identified between Mesolithic and Neolithic material cultures; faunal assemblages, and isotopic analyses of diet have revealed a greater role of hunting in LBK communities; genetic analyses have suggested that the modern Central European gene pool is mainly of Palaeolithic origin. Surprisingly little attention has been paid to demographic aspects of the Neolithic transition. In our study, demographic simulations were performed to assess the demographic conditions that would allow LBK farmers to spread across central Europe without any admixture with Mesolithic foragers. We constructed a stochastic demographic model of changes in farming population size. Model parameters were constrained by data from human demography, archaeology, and human ecology. Our results indicate that the establishment of farming communities in Central Europe without an admixture with foragers was highly improbable. The demographic conditions necessary for colonization were beyond the potential of the Neolithic population. Our study supports the integrationists’ view of the Neolithic transition in Central Europe.

[Recent demographic trends in Turkey].

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Behar, C

1993-01-01

Coverage of Turkey's vital registration system remains incomplete, and it cannot yet be used to measure annual population changes. Data and demographic indices based on the 1990 census and the 1989 National Demographic Survey are the most recent available. Turkey's population in 1990 was 56 million. The proportion urban increased to 59% from 49.2% in 1980. Nearly 35% of the population was under 15 years old, and the median age was 21.6 for males and 22.3 for females. The average age at first marriage in 1989 was 24.8 for men and 21.8 for women. Mortality has been in continuous decline. The crude death rate dropped from 16.4/1000 in 1960-65 to slightly under 8 in 1989. Life expectancy at birth was 63.3 for men and 66 for women. The infant mortality rate declined from 166 in 1965-70 to 85 in 1989. Rural or urban residence and maternal educational level were the most significant determinants of infant mortality differentials. Turkey's total fertility rate declined from 6.2 in 1960 to 4.3 in 1978 and 3.4 in 1988-89. The crude birth rate declined from around 40/1000 in 1968 to under 28/1000 in 1989. Fertility began to decline in the last third of the nineteenth century in Istanbul and other large cities of the Ottoman Empire. Istanbul's total fertility rate was a relatively low 3.9 even before World War I. Turkey adopted a policy to slow demographic growth in the mid 1960s, and family planning activities were supported by nongovernmental organizations. The direct impact of these policies on demographic behavior appears to have been somewhat limited, and the use of traditional methods of birth limitation remains widespread. Abortion was legalized in 1983 and is available at public hospitals. The proportion of married women aged 15-49 who use contraception increased from 38% in 1973 to 63% in 1988. Regional differentials in demographic indices are significant in Turkey, with the Anatolian East and Southeast lagging behind other regions in fertility and mortality decline

Reasons for and challenges of recent increases in teen birth rates: a study of family planning service policies and demographic changes at the state level.

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Yang, Zhou; Gaydos, Laura M

2010-06-01

After declining for over a decade, the birth rate in the United States for adolescents aged 15-19 years increased by 3% in 2006 and 1% again in 2007. We examined demographic and policy reasons for this trend at state level. With data merged from multiple sources, descriptive analysis was used to detect state-level trends in birth rate and policy changes from 2000 to 2006, and variations in the distribution of teen birth rates, sex education, and family planning service policies, and demographic features across each state in 2006. Regression analysis was then conducted to estimate the effect of several reproductive health policies and demographic features on teen birth rates at the state level. Instrument variable was used to correct possible bias in the regression analysis. Medicaid family planning waivers were found to reduce teen birth rates across all ages and races. Abstinence-only education programs were found to cause an increase in teen birth rates among white and black teens. The increasing Hispanic population is another driving force for high teen birth rates. Both demographic factors and policy changes contributed to the increase in teen birth rates between 2000 and 2006. Future policy and behavioral interventions should focus on promoting and increasing access to contraceptive use. Family planning policies should be crafted to address the special needs of teens from different cultural backgrounds, especially Hispanics. Copyright 2010 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Demographic patterns and trends in Central Ghana: baseline indicators from the Kintampo Health and Demographic Surveillance System

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Seth Owusu-Agyei

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Background: The dearth of health and demographic data in sub-Saharan Africa from vital registration systems and its impact on effective planning for health and socio-economic development is widely documented. Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems have the capacity to address the dearth of quality data for policy making in resource-poor settings. Objective: This article demonstrates the utility of the Kintampo Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS by showing the patterns and trends of population change from 2005 to 2009 in the Kintampo North Municipality and Kintampo South districts of Ghana through data obtained from the KHDSS biannual update rounds. Design: Basic demographic rates for fertility, mortality, and migration were computed by year. School enrolment was computed as a percentage in school by age and sex for 6–18 year-olds. Socio-economic status was derived by use of Principal Components Analysis on household assets. Results: Over the period, an earlier fertility decline was reversed in 2009; mortality declined slightly for all age-groups, and a significant share of working-age population was lost through out-migration. Large minorities of children of school-going age are not in school. Socio-economic factors are shown to be important determinants of fertility and mortality. Conclusion : Strengthening the capacity of HDSSs could offer added value to evidence-driven policymaking at local level.

Computed tomographic demonstration of rapid changes in fatty infiltration of the liver

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bashist, B.; Hecht, H.L.; Harely, W.D.

1982-01-01

Two alcoholic patients in whom computed tomography (CT) demonstrated reversal of fatty infiltration of the liver are described. The rapid reversibility of fatty infiltration can be useful in monitoring alcoholics with fatty livers. Focal fatty infiltration can mimic focal hepatic lesions and repeat scans can be utilized to assess changes in CT attenuation values when this condition is suspected

Monitoring changes in seismic velocity related to an ongoing rapid inflation event at Okmok volcano, Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Bennington, Ninfa; Haney, Matt; De Angelis, Silvio; Thurber, Clifford; Freymueller, Jeff

2015-01-01

Okmok is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian Arc. In an effort to improve our ability to detect precursory activity leading to eruption at Okmok, we monitor a recent, and possibly ongoing, GPS-inferred rapid inflation event at the volcano using ambient noise interferometry (ANI). Applying this method, we identify changes in seismic velocity outside of Okmok’s caldera, which are related to the hydrologic cycle. Within the caldera, we observe decreases in seismic velocity that are associated with the GPS-inferred rapid inflation event. We also determine temporal changes in waveform decorrelation and show a continual increase in decorrelation rate over the time associated with the rapid inflation event. Themagnitude of relative velocity decreases and decorrelation rate increases are comparable to previous studies at Piton de la Fournaise that associate such changes with increased production of volatiles and/ormagmatic intrusion within the magma reservoir and associated opening of fractures and/or fissures. Notably, the largest decrease in relative velocity occurs along the intrastation path passing nearest to the center of the caldera. This observation, along with equal amplitude relative velocity decreases revealed via analysis of intracaldera autocorrelations, suggests that the inflation sourcemay be located approximately within the center of the caldera and represent recharge of shallow magma storage in this location. Importantly, there is a relative absence of seismicity associated with this and previous rapid inflation events at Okmok. Thus, these ANI results are the first seismic evidence of such rapid inflation at the volcano.

Economic and demographic assumptions of the public pension insurance system functioning

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Đukić Gordana

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The demographic transition is characterized by a decline in birth rates and fertility on the one hand, and an intense increase in the number of old people on the other hand. The intensity of demographic ageing is characteristic of certain countries, being more expressed in developed countries. In such a situation, negative economic consequences arise in the context of unemployment, due to a decreased number of young population and lower participation in the labour market, as well as in the domains of savings, capital market, health protection, pension system and institutional development. These consequences can be mitigated by the application of appropriate economic transition and macroeconomic policy. Demographic tendencies have a great impact on changes in the values of the pension system parameters. The dependence rate indicating the relation between the number of employed people and the number of pensioners, and the average replacement rate representing the relation between the average wage and average pension, are directly dependent on demographic changes and they directly affect the sustainability of the public pension insurance system.

Wildlife health in a rapidly changing North: focus on avian disease

Science.gov (United States)

Van Hemert, Caroline R.; Pearce, John M.; Handel, Colleen M.

2014-01-01

Climate-related environmental changes have increasingly been linked to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife. The Arctic is facing a major ecological transition that is expected to substantially affect animal and human health. Changes in phenology or environmental conditions that result from climate warming may promote novel species assemblages as host and pathogen ranges expand to previously unoccupied areas. Recent evidence from the Arctic and subarctic suggests an increase in the spread and prevalence of some wildlife diseases, but baseline data necessary to detect and verify such changes are still lacking. Wild birds are undergoing rapid shifts in distribution and have been implicated in the spread of wildlife and zoonotic diseases. Here, we review evidence of current and projected changes in the abundance and distribution of avian diseases and outline strategies for future research. We discuss relevant climatic and environmental factors, emerging host–pathogen contact zones, the relationship between host condition and immune function, and potential wildlife and human health outcomes in northern regions.

Socio-demographic predictors of health and environmental co-benefit behaviours for climate change mitigation in urban China.

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Emily Ying Yang; Wang, Susan Shuxin; Ho, Janice Ying-En; Huang, Zhe; Liu, Sida; Guo, Chunlan

2017-01-01

This study aims to examine the patterns and socio-demographic predictors of health and environmental co-benefit behaviours that support climate change mitigation in a densely populated Asian metropolis-Hong Kong. A population-based, stratified and cross-sectional random digit dialling telephone survey study was conducted between January and February 2016, among the Cantonese-speaking population aged 15 and above in Hong Kong. Socio-demographic data and the self-reported practice of 10 different co-benefit behaviours were solicited. Ethics approval and participant's verbal consent were sought. The study sample consisted of 1,017 respondents (response rate: 63.6%) were comparable to the age, gender and geographical distributions of the Hong Kong population found in the latest 2011 Hong Kong Population Census. Among the co-benefit behaviours, using less packaging and disposable shopping bags were practiced in the highest frequency (70.1%). However, four behaviours were found to have never been practiced by more than half of the respondents, including bringing personal eating utensils when dining in restaurants or small eateries, showering less than five minutes, having one vegetarian meal a week, and buying more organic food. Results of multivariable logistic regression showed that frequency of practicing co-benefit behaviours were consistently associated with gender and age. Urban residents in Hong Kong do not engage in the practice of co-benefit behaviours in a uniform way. In general, females and older people are more likely to adopt co-benefit behaviours in their daily lives. Further research to assess the knowledge and attitudes of the population towards these co-benefit behaviours will provide support to relevant climate change mitigation policies and education programmes.

[Regional differences in the development of hospitalizations : An effect of different demographic trends?

Science.gov (United States)

Nowossadeck, Enno; Prütz, Franziska

2018-03-01

Population aging and population decline in many regions of the Federal Republic of Germany are key elements of demographic change. In the regions concerned there is a rising number of older people and, simultaneously, a declining population. So far, the consequences of regional shrinkage and growth for inpatient care don't seem to have been analysed very well. This paper analyses the influence of population aging and declining/increasing population (demographic factors) as well as other, non-demographic factors on the number of hospitalizations in Germany and the Federal States since 2000.One result of the analysis is that there are major differences between the Federal States. The analysis shows, for example, an increase of hospitalizations in Berlin while in Saxony-Anhalt the number of hospitalizations declines. The increase in Berlin was the result of population aging and, to a lower extent, an increase in population. In Saxony-Anhalt the declining population resulted in a decreasing number of hospitalizations. Population aging and non-demographic factors were not able to compensate this trend.Overall, the effect of demographic factors on the number of hospitalizations remains constant over time. Short-term changes of hospitalizations are due to non-demographic factors, such as epidemiological trends, (for example trends of incidence or prevalence), or structural changes of health care service (for example patients shifting between different sectors of health care or the introduction of new reimbursement systems).

The demographic dynamics of small island societies.

Science.gov (United States)

Cruz, M; D'ayala, P G; Marcus, E; Mcelroy, J L; Rossi, O

1987-01-01

Small islands and microstates have demonstrated a unique demographic pattern, including cycles of swift population increases or decreases well beyond natural birth and death rate balances. These demographic fluctuations have been produced largely by rises or declines in market opportunities. The process of taking advantage of favorable opportunities is always followed by a specialization in the given activity, without regard to environmental protection issues or a longterm strategy for economic development and resource diversification. The population growth phase is associated with increasing fragility of the economic base, whether because of the external dangers of overspecialization or induced internal dysfunctions such as disease and resource depletion. Eventually complete collapse results, causing chronic outmigration or even depopulation. Case histories of maritime basins in the Mediterranean, Caribbean, and Pacific show that the demographic structure of small islands has been particularly sensitive to changing economic opportunities, the vagaries of market forces, and cataclysmic natural events. Experience in these areas suggests that balanced economic development of small islands should be based on diversification of activities, thus ensuring a relatively stable pattern of growth, sound environmental management, and control of dangerous demographic fluctuations. Special attention should be given to the development of broad-based research and cooperation to integrate specific island opportunities within a regional network.

The age demographics of academic librarians a profession apart

CERN Document Server

Wilder, Stanley

2000-01-01

The Age Demographics of Academic Librarians: A Profession Apart discusses the current demographics of librarianship in North America and examines how a huge retiree rate will affect the profession. With the average age of librarians increasing dramatically since 1990, this book examines the changes that will have to take place in your library, such as recruiting, training, and working with a smaller staff. The Age Demographics of Academic Librarians provides you with insights on how to make your library's transition easier when several of your colleagues leave your library. Valuable and intelligent, The Age Demographics of Academic Librarians discusses trends through easy-to-read charts, tables, and comprehensive data analysis. Exploring possible reasons for the anomalies of this trend, this book explores several surprising facts, such as: 16 percent of the 1995 American Research Libraries population of librarians will retire by the year 2000, another 16 percent between 2000 and 2005, 24 percent between 2005 ...

Effects of Demographic History on the Detection of Recombination Hotspots from Linkage Disequilibrium.

Science.gov (United States)

Dapper, Amy L; Payseur, Bret A

2018-02-01

In some species, meiotic recombination is concentrated in small genomic regions. These "recombination hotspots" leave signatures in fine-scale patterns of linkage disequilibrium, raising the prospect that the genomic landscape of hotspots can be characterized from sequence variation. This approach has led to the inference that hotspots evolve rapidly in some species, but are conserved in others. Historic demographic events, such as population bottlenecks, are known to affect patterns of linkage disequilibrium across the genome, violating population genetic assumptions of this approach. Although such events are prevalent, demographic history is generally ignored when making inferences about the evolution of recombination hotspots. To determine the effect of demography on the detection of recombination hotspots, we use the coalescent to simulate haplotypes with a known recombination landscape. We measure the ability of popular linkage disequilibrium-based programs to detect hotspots across a range of demographic histories, including population bottlenecks, hidden population structure, population expansions, and population contractions. We find that demographic events have the potential to greatly reduce the power and increase the false positive rate of hotspot discovery. Neither the power nor the false positive rate of hotspot detection can be predicted without also knowing the demographic history of the sample. Our results suggest that ignoring demographic history likely overestimates the power to detect hotspots and therefore underestimates the degree of hotspot sharing between species. We suggest strategies for incorporating demographic history into population genetic inferences about recombination hotspots. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Rapid improvement teams.

Science.gov (United States)

Alemi, F; Moore, S; Headrick, L; Neuhauser, D; Hekelman, F; Kizys, N

1998-03-01

Suggestions, most of which are supported by empirical studies, are provided on how total quality management (TQM) teams can be used to bring about faster organizationwide improvements. Ideas are offered on how to identify the right problem, have rapid meetings, plan rapidly, collect data rapidly, and make rapid whole-system changes. Suggestions for identifying the right problem include (1) postpone benchmarking when problems are obvious, (2) define the problem in terms of customer experience so as not to blame employees nor embed a solution in the problem statement, (3) communicate with the rest of the organization from the start, (4) state the problem from different perspectives, and (5) break large problems into smaller units. Suggestions for having rapid meetings include (1) choose a nonparticipating facilitator to expedite meetings, (2) meet with each team member before the team meeting, (3) postpone evaluation of ideas, and (4) rethink conclusions of a meeting before acting on them. Suggestions for rapid planning include reducing time spent on flowcharting by focusing on the future, not the present. Suggestions for rapid data collection include (1) sample patients for surveys, (2) rely on numerical estimates by process owners, and (3) plan for rapid data collection. Suggestions for rapid organizationwide implementation include (1) change membership on cross-functional teams, (2) get outside perspectives, (3) use unfolding storyboards, and (4) go beyond self-interest to motivate lasting change in the organization. Additional empirical investigations of time saved as a consequence of the strategies provided are needed. If organizations solve their problems rapidly, fewer unresolved problems may remain.

Demographics and macroeconomic effects in aesthetic surgery in the UK.

Science.gov (United States)

Duncan, C O; Ho-Asjoe, M; Hittinger, R; Nishikawa, H; Waterhouse, N; Coghlan, B; Jones, B

2004-09-01

Media interest in aesthetic surgery is substantial and suggestions of demographic changes such as reductions in age or an increase in the number of male patients are common. In spite of this, there is no peer reviewed literature reporting demographics of a contemporary large patient cohort or of the effect of macroeconomic indicators on aesthetic surgery in the UK. In this study, computer records 13006 patients presenting between 1998 and the first quarter of 2003 at a significant aesthetic surgery centre were analysed for procedures undergone, patient age and sex. Male to female ratios for each procedure were calculated and a comparison was made between unit activity and macroeconomic indicators. The results showed that there has been no significant demographic change in the procedures studied with patient age and male to female ratio remaining constant throughout the period studied for each procedure. Comparison with macroeconomic indicators suggested increasing demand for aesthetic surgery in spite of a global recession. In conclusion, media reports of large scale demographic shifts in aesthetic surgery patients are exaggerated. The stability of unit activity in spite of falling national economic indicators suggested that some units in the UK might be relatively immune to economic vagaries. The implications for training are discussed.

Demographic patterns and sustainable development in Ghana.

Science.gov (United States)

Tawiah, E O

1995-01-01

There is a growing recognition that the present demographic patterns in sub-Saharan Africa, including Ghana, do not augur well for the achievement of sustainable development. Ghana is characterized by a youthful population, rapid population growth, uneven population distribution, high fertility, and rural-urban migration which has brought human numbers into collision with resources to sustain them. It is submitted that the issues discussed are equally applicable to the subregion as well. The estimated population in 1993 was about 16.4 million. The population of Ghana increased from 1970 to 1984 at a rate of growth of 2.6% per annum. The proliferation of small settlements has serious implications for sustainable development. Urban centers comprised about 12.9% of the total population in 1948, 23% in 1960, 28.3% in 1970, and 31.3% in 1984. The average woman in Ghana still has more than six children. The 1988 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey (GDHS) indicated that the median age at first marriage for women was 16.5 years. Contraceptive use is low in sub-Sahara Africa. Currently married women (15-49) currently using any modern method ranged from 1% in Burundi (1987) and Mali (1987) to 36% in Zimbabwe (1988/89). The rapid population growth in Ghana, coupled with the concentration of infrastructural facilities and job opportunities in the urban centers, has resulted in a massive rural-urban migration. Basic social facilities like health, water, housing, and electricity have been stretched to their breakpoints. The Government of Ghana initiated a major effort to put environmental issues on the priority agenda in March 1988. This led to the preparation of an Environmental Action Plan (EAP) in 1991 to address issues relating to the protection of the environment, but the need is still urgent to adopt relevant population policies as a basic strategy in sustainable development.

Putting the "Ecology" into Environmental Flows: Ecological Dynamics and Demographic Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Shenton, Will; Bond, Nicholas R.; Yen, Jian D. L.; Mac Nally, Ralph

2012-07-01

There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological `health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A `meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

Putting the "ecology" into environmental flows: ecological dynamics and demographic modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Shenton, Will; Bond, Nicholas R; Yen, Jian D L; Mac Nally, Ralph

2012-07-01

There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological 'health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A 'meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

Demographic Composition of the Online Buyers in Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sinan NARDALI

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Demographic variables may have an impact on Internet usage patterns. Online buyers’ characteristics keeps changing time along with the shifting dynamics of Turkish consumers’ demographic profile and day by day online shopping becomes a safe and popular option in Turkey. Current study investigates demographic composition of the online buyers that influence consumer attitudes towards online shopping behavior in Izmir, the third largest city in Turkey. This study examines attitudes toward online shopping and provides a better understanding of the potential of online buyers for both researchers and practitioners. The study is based on an empirical research work, and a convenience sample of 400. Frequencies, descriptive statistics, and One-Way ANOVA tests were used in the analysis of data. The study shows that Turkish Internet consumer segment is relatively young, well educated, in mid economic status and professions associated with Internet more than five years.

RAPID SPECTRAL CHANGES OF CYGNUS X-1 IN THE LOW/HARD STATE WITH SUZAKU

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yamada, S.; Makishima, K. [Cosmic Radiation Laboratory, Institute of Physical and Chemical Research (RIKEN), Wako, Saitama 351-0198 (Japan); Negoro, H. [Department of Physics, College of Science and Technology, Nihon University, 1-8 Kanda-Surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8308 (Japan); Torii, S.; Noda, H. [Department of Physics, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Mineshige, S. [Department of Astronomy, Kyoto University, Kitashirakawa Oiwake-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8502 (Japan)

2013-04-20

Rapid spectral changes in the hard X-ray on a timescale down to {approx}0.1 s are studied by applying a ''shot analysis'' technique to the Suzaku observations of the black hole binary Cygnus X-1, performed on 2008 April 18 during the low/hard state. We successfully obtained the shot profiles, covering 10-200 keV with the Suzaku HXD-PIN and HXD-GSO detector. It is notable that the 100-200 keV shot profile is acquired for the first time owing to the HXD-GSO detector. The intensity changes in a time-symmetric way, though the hardness changes in a time-asymmetric way. When the shot-phase-resolved spectra are quantified with the Compton model, the Compton y-parameter and the electron temperature are found to decrease gradually through the rising phase of the shot, while the optical depth appears to increase. All the parameters return to their time-averaged values immediately within 0.1 s past the shot peak. We have not only confirmed this feature previously found in energies below {approx}60 keV, but also found that the spectral change is more prominent in energies above {approx}100 keV, implying the existence of some instant mechanism for direct entropy production. We discuss possible interpretations of the rapid spectral changes in the hard X-ray band.

Risks of rapid decline renal function in patients with type 2 diabetes

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Yi-Jing; Sheen; Wayne; HH; Sheu

2014-01-01

Progressive rising population of diabetes and related nephropathy, namely, diabetic kidney disease and associated end stage renal disease has become a major global public health issue. Results of observational studies indicate that most diabetic kidney disease progresses over decades; however, certain diabetes patients display a rapid decline in renal function, which may lead to renal failure within months. Although the definition of rapid renal function decline remained speculative, in general,it is defined by the decrease of estimated glomerular filtration rate(e GFR) in absolute rate of loss or percent change. Based on the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes 2012 clinical practice guidelines, a rapid decline in renal function is defined as a sustained declinein e GFR of > 5 m L/min per 1.73 m2 per year. It has been reported that potential factors contributing to a rapid decline in renal function include ethnic/genetic and demographic causes, smoking habits, increased glycated hemoglobin levels, obesity, albuminuria, anemia, low serum magnesium levels, high serum phosphate levels, vitamin D deficiency, elevated systolic blood pressure, pulse pressure, brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity values, retinopathy, and cardiac autonomic neuropathy. This article reviews current literatures in this area and provides insight on the early detection of diabetic subjects who are at risk of a rapid decline in renal function in order to develop a more aggressive approach to renal and cardiovascular protection.

Mortality-fertility synergies during the demographic transition in the developed world.

Science.gov (United States)

Sánchez-Barricarte, Jesús J

2017-07-01

The classic theory used to explain the demographic transition assumes that mortality is the key explanatory variable influencing the decline in fertility. However, the empirical results obtained in what is known as the Princeton European Fertility Project have led many specialists to question this assumption. Using both national and provincial aggregated data for 25 countries over a long time span, the analysis reported in this paper found that mortality does indeed play a fundamental role in accounting for the main demographic changes that occurred both before and during the transitional period. Others' research based on individual data has shown clearly that the number of surviving children was indeed an important factor for reproductive decisions. My analysis, using aggregated data, reached largely similar conclusions regarding the role of mortality in changing reproductive trends, via its impact on nuptiality and marital fertility at different stages of the demographic transition.

Demographic and transportation parameters in RADTRAN

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brogan, J.D.; Cashwell, J.W.; Neuhauser, K.S.

1989-01-01

Recent efforts at Sandia National Laboratories have focused not only on modification of the RADTRAN transportation risk analysis code but also on updating the default parameters for population, land use, and roadway characteristics used by the code. Changes to the code have been discussed earlier in this Conference. This paper summarizes the results of a review of transportation and demographic parameters, performed to complement recent model modifications

[Fertility change in Mexico and the politics of population].

Science.gov (United States)

Zavala De Cosio, M E

1993-01-01

This introduction to a detailed study of fertility change in Mexico assesses the available fertility data and describes the sources used, traces the beginning and course of the demographic transition in Mexico, and describes the work. Mexico's demographic transition began around 1930 with the acceleration of mortality decline. The considerable time lag between the mortality decline and the beginning of the fertility decline resulted in a period of very rapid growth. Between 1955 and 1975, the growth rate exceeded 3% annually. The start of the fertility decline dated to about 1970, the time of a major reform of population policy and creation of institutions to reduce growth. But the fertility decline was not solely the result of population programs. An incipient fertility decline could be observed in the metropolitan and more educated population sectors beginning in the early 1960s. The onset of the mortality decline in the 1930s resulted from the sustained social and economic progress made possible after the conclusion of the Mexican Revolution. Between 1930 and 1980, the adult illiteracy rate declined from 61.2% to 17%, while life expectancy increased from 33 years to 63.2 years. In Mexico as in other Latin American countries, the mortality decline, which disturbed the traditional balance between high mortality and high fertility, was the force setting off the demographic transition and the necessary precursor to fertility decline. The first of two main sections of the book focuses on examination of fertility variations in Mexico since around 1900 using cross-sectional and longitudinal methods of analysis. The second part describes the origins, history, and institutions involved in Mexico's population policies and the demographic programs and their principal results. The influence of population policies in demographic change is assessed, especially in the case of fertility changes induced by family planning programs. Both the first and second parts sought to place

The regional differentiation of the demographic movements in the Republic of Macedonia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Madjevikj Mirjanka

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The Republic of Macedonia covers an area of 25,713 km² and according to data from the census conducted in 2002, it has a population of 2,022,547 inhabitants. In the past, the Republic of Macedonia was characterized by some significant demographic changes, including a decline in the average annual rate of population increase. The enhanced immigration movements and sudden decline in the rates of natural population increase have led to changes in distribution of the population and to a spatial differentiation in the population. The long period of transition in the country has been reflected in the spatial development of the country and its demographic processes and to relocation of the population. The different natural-geographical characteristics, unequal regional development potentials, unequal economic development, and demographic characteristics have led to changes in the demographic situation of certain regions. The regions that continually lose part of its population clearly differ from these regions that are characterized by an increased population which is leading to a greater concentration of people in certain location. Further decades with a declining birth rate, followed by a change in the values of population increase, together with migration movements, particularly from the rural and less developed economic regions, has resulted in a decline in the population. The different zones of depopulation and concentration in a simple way express the complex relationships in the population composition.

EJSCREEN Demographic Indicators 2015 Public

Science.gov (United States)

EJSCREEN uses demographic factors as very general indicators of a community's potential susceptibility to the types of environmental factors included in this screening tool. There are six demographic indicators: Demographic Index, Supplementary Demographic Index, Individuals under Age 5, Individuals over Age 64, Percent Low-Income, Linguistic Isolation, Percent Minority, and Less than High School Education.

Tropical vegetation evidence for rapid sea level changes associated with Heinrich Events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gonzalez, Catalina; Dupont, Lydie M, E-mail: catalina@uni-bremen.d, E-mail: dupont@uni-bremen.d [MARUM - Centre for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Leobener Strasse, D-28359 Germany (Germany)

2010-03-15

A Cariaco Basin pollen record shows the development of tropical salt marshes during marine isotope stage 3. Rapid and abrupt expansions of salt marsh vegetation in tropical South America are associated with north Atlantic Heinrich Events stadials (HE-stadials). Intervals of salt marsh expansion have an internal structure, which consists of a recurrent alternation of species that starts with pollen increments of Chenopodiaceae, that are followed by increments of grasses, and subsequently by increments of Cyperaceae. This pattern suggests a successional process that is determined by the close relationship between sea-level and plant community dynamics. The salt tolerant Chenopodiaceae, indicate hypersaline intertidal environments, which were most likely promoted by extremely dry atmospheric conditions. Rapid sea-level rise characterizes the onset of HE-stadials, causing the continued recruitment of pioneer species, which are the only ones tolerating rapid rates of disturbance. Once sea-level rise decelerates, marsh plants are able to trap and stabilize sediments, favouring the establishment of more competitive species. These results add to the scarce knowledge on the dynamics of tropical salt marsh ecosystems, and provide independent paleoclimatic evidence on sea-level changes following Antarctic climate variability.

Baby boomers' food shopping habits. Relationships with demographics and personal values.

Science.gov (United States)

Worsley, Anthony; Wang, Wei C; Hunter, Wendy

2010-12-01

The purpose of this study was to examine baby boomers' food shopping behaviours and to investigate their relationships with demographics and personal values. A questionnaire concerning food shopping behaviours, personal values and demographics was mailed to a random sample of 2975 people aged 40-70 years in Victoria, Australia. Usable questionnaires of 1031 were obtained. Structural equation modelling was employed for data analyses. The analyses revealed that demographics and personal values influenced shopping behaviours via different pathways among male and female baby boomers. For example, self-direction positively impacted on shopping planning for men but negatively influenced price minimization for women. Among women only, age was positively related to shopping planning and negatively to price minimization. Thus, both personal values and demographics influenced baby boomers' shopping behaviours. Since values are more likely to be amenable to change than demographics, segmentation of the population via value orientations would facilitate targeted interventions to promote healthy food shopping. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Demographic Data for Effective Programming: An Update on Sources and Successful Practice

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, Katherine J.; Veroff, Daniel; Rizzo, Bill; Beaudoin, James

2012-01-01

This article details recent changes in demographic data released by the US Census Bureau and the implications for use among Extension educators. We discuss updates to demographic data products and the keys for their successful use. Focus is on the American Community Survey (ACS). Users must adopt new practices to effectively use the ACS, which now…

Assessing economic and demographic impacts of intermodal transportation systems.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-08-14

There exists a large literature of transportation impacts on economic and demographic change. Prior studies have focused on single modes of transportation individually rather than integrating these modes. Yet, little work has been undertaken to study...

A Demographic Dividend for Sub-Saharan Africa: Source, Magnitude, and Realization

OpenAIRE

Bloom, David E.; Humair, Salal; Rosenberg, Larry; Sevilla, J.P.; Trussell, James

2013-01-01

Managing rapid population growth and spurring economic growth are among the most pressing policy challenges for Sub-Saharan Africa. We discuss the links between them and investigate the potential of family planning programs to address these challenges. Specifically, we estimate the impact of family planning programs on income per capita that can arise via the demographic dividend (DD), a boost to per capita income that operates through a chain of causality related to declining fertility. We d...

Integrated ocean management as a strategy to meet rapid climate change: the Norwegian case.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoel, Alf Håkon; Olsen, Erik

2012-02-01

The prospects of rapid climate change and the potential existence of tipping points in marine ecosystems where nonlinear change may result from them being overstepped, raises the question of strategies for coping with ecosystem change. There is broad agreement that the combined forces of climate change, pollution and increasing economic activities necessitates more comprehensive approaches to oceans management, centering on the concept of ecosystem-based oceans management. This article addresses the Norwegian experience in introducing integrated, ecosystem-based oceans management, emphasizing how climate change, seen as a major long-term driver of change in ecosystems, is addressed in management plans. Understanding the direct effects of climate variability and change on ecosystems and indirect effects on human activities is essential for adaptive planning to be useful in the long-term management of the marine environment.

[Demographic characteristics of consumers in Indonesia?].

Science.gov (United States)

Ananta, A

1993-06-01

"This paper presents a mosaic of business opportunities arising from the different demographic characteristics of the provinces in the western part of Indonesia. The author discusses the total number of population, density, and per capita income to [shed] some light on the volume of the market. He also presents the business impact of the [changes] in fertility, mortality, and the...life style of those aged 40-64." (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

[Developmental changes of rapid automatized naming and Hiragana reading of Japanese in elementary-school children].

Science.gov (United States)

Kobayashi, Tomoka; Inagaki, Masumi; Gunji, Atsuko; Yatabe, Kiyomi; Kita, Yosuke; Kaga, Makiko; Gotoh, Takaaki; Koike, Toshihide

2011-11-01

Two hundred and seven Japanese elementary school children aged from 6 (Grade 1) to 12 (Grade 6) years old were tested for their abilities to name numbers and pictured objects along with reading Hiragana characters and words. These children all showed typical development and their classroom teachers judged that they were not having any problems with reading or writing. The children were randomly divided into two groups, the first group was assigned to two naming tasks;the rapid automatized naming (RAN) of "numbers" and "pictured objects," the second group was assigned to two rapid alternative stimulus (RAS) naming tasks using numbers and pictured objects. All children were asked to perform two reading tasks that were written in Hiragana script: single mora reading task and four syllable word reading task. The total articulation time for naming and reading and performance in terms of accuracy were measured for each task. Developmental changes in these variables were evaluated. The articulation time was significantly longer for the first graders, and it gradually shortened as they moved through to the upper grades in all tasks. The articulation time reached a plateau in the 5th grade for the number naming, while gradual change continued after drastic change in the lower grades for the pictured object naming. The articulation times for the single mora reading and RAN of numbers correlated strongly. The articulation time for the RAS naming was significantly longer compared to that for the RAN, though there were very few errors. The RAS naming showed the highest correlation with the four syllable word reading. This study demonstrated that the performance in rapid automatized naming of numbers and pictures were closely related with performance on reading tasks. Thus Japanese children with reading disorders such as developmental dyslexia should also be evaluated for rapid automatized naming.

Changing demographics of spinal cord injury over a 20-year period: a longitudinal population-based study in Scotland.

Science.gov (United States)

McCaughey, E J; Purcell, M; McLean, A N; Fraser, M H; Bewick, A; Borotkanics, R J; Allan, D B

2016-04-01

A retrospective cohort study. To review demographic trends in traumatic spinal cord injury (TSCI) and non-traumatic spinal cord injury (NTSCI). The Queen Elizabeth National Spinal Injuries Unit (QENSIU), sole provider of treatment for TSCI in Scotland; a devolved region of the UK National Health Service. A retrospective review of the QENSIU database was performed between 1994 and 2013. This database includes demographic and clinical data from all new TSCI patients in Scotland, as well as patients with severe NTSCI. Over this 20-year period there were 1638 new cases of TSCI in Scotland; 75.2% occurring in males. TSCI incidence increased non-significantly (13.3 per million population to 17.0), while there were significant increases in mean age at time of TSCI (44.1-52.6 years), the proportion of TSCIs caused by falls (41-60%), the proportion of TSCIs resulting in an American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale score of C and D on admission (19.7-28.6% and 34.5-39.5%, respectively) and the proportion of cervical TSCIs (58.4-66.3%). The increase in cervical TSCI was specifically due to an increase in C1-C4 lesions (21.7-31.2%). NTSCI patients (n=292) were 5 years older at injury, more likely to be female (68.1% male) and had a range of diagnoses. This study supports the suggestion that demographic profiles in SCI are subject to change. In this population, of particular concern is the increasing number of older patients and those with high level tetraplegia, due to their increased care needs. Prevention programmes, treatment pathways and service provision need to be adjusted for optimum impact, improved outcome and long-term care for their target population.

Dancing with Demographers.

Science.gov (United States)

Robertson, Heather-Jane

2000-01-01

Demographic projections concerning the shortage of teachers in Canada, their pay scale, the feminization of teaching, the gender gap in salaries, and teacher autonomy have often been incorrect, or correct for the wrong reasons. Instead of relying on demographic predictions, teachers should contemplate who they really want to be professionally,…

[Trends of change in demographic indices of population in the area of oil and gas deposits of the republic of Kazakhstan].

Science.gov (United States)

Kenessaryiev, U I; Yerzhanova, A E; Kenessary, D U; Kenessary, A U

According to assured resources of hydrocarbons the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) is among ten largest oil countries in the world, trailing only some states of the Middle East, Latin America, as well Russia and the USA. Public health state is the one of most important indices of social development, the manifestation of the economic and sanitaryhygienic welfare, as well as national defense capability and cultural potential of the state. In relation with the intensive development of oil and gas fields the problems of environmental protection and healthcare of the population in these regions occur critically. Therefore, it causes keen interest both from the side of researches and practical health care workers. Rapid development of the oil and gas industry leads to changes in a medical and demographic situation of given regions that is related both with the natural migration of the population and other migratory processes. According to data of the Ministry of Energetics and natural resources of RK, the Karachaganak oil-gas condensate deposit is considered to be the one of the largest in the world. For the next 40 years, the field is becoming the stable financial donor of the country. Currently Karachaganak field is considered to be the one of the largest investment projects in Kazakhstan. The studied oil and gas condensate field is located in the Burlin district of West Kazakhstan region, which is 140 km far from the city of Uralsk and 160 km far from the city of Orenburg. The field was discovered in 1984.

Demographic Changes and Their Spatial-Settlement Consequences: Lessons from East Germany and Hungary

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tibor Kovács

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Demographic shrinkage has created ‘new’ challenges in the spatial and urban development of the developed world and its semi periphery for nearly three and a half decades and it requires a different way of thinking and different solutions as well compared to previous development practices. Theoretical research and development activities in practice are further aggravated by the mono-minded mentality of society, economy and politics fallen a victim to charms of ‘growth’; the slow recognition of the fact of spatial-urban shrinkage and the reluctance to deal with the problem (especially on the semi periphery. In this paper I would like to outline the settlement and spatial problems of demographic shrinkage and suggest certain theoretical solutions being aware of the fact that there is no universal solution for shrinkage; each and every settlement has to find and carry out their own solution – emphasising the mobilisation of the endogenous resources of the given region or settlement.

Feeling threatened about the future: Whites' emotional reactions to anticipated ethnic demographic changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Outten, H Robert; Schmitt, Michael T; Miller, Daniel A; Garcia, Amber L

2012-01-01

In many Western countries, the proportion of the population that is White will drop below 50% within the next century. Two experiments examined how anticipation of these future ethnic demographics affects current intergroup processes. In Study 1, White Americans who viewed actual demographic projections for a time when Whites are no longer a numerical majority felt more angry toward and fearful of ethnic minorities than Whites who did not view future projections. Whites who viewed the future projections also felt more sympathy for their ingroup than Whites in the control condition. In Study 2, the authors replicated the effects for intergroup emotions with a sample of White Canadians. White Canadians who thought about a future in which Whites were a numerical minority appraised the ingroup as more threatened, which mediated the effect of condition on intergroup emotions. The authors discuss the implications of these findings for race relations in increasingly diverse societies.

Rapid Hip Osteoarthritis Development in a Patient with Anterior Acetabular Cyst with Sagittal Alignment Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yasuhiro Homma

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Rapidly destructive coxarthrosis (RDC is rare and develops unusual clinical course. Recent studies suggest multiple possible mechanisms of the development of RDC. However the exact mechanism of RDC is still not clear. The difficulty of the study on RDC is attributed to its rareness and the fact that the data before the onset of RDC is normally unavailable. In this report, we presented the patient having the radiographic data before the onset who had rapid osteoarthritis (OA development after contralateral THA, which meets the current criteria of RDC. We thought that the increased posterior tilt of the pelvis after THA reinforced the stress concentration at pre-existed anterior acetabular cyst, thereby the destruction of the cyst was occurred. As a result the rapid OA was developed. We think that there is the case of rapid osteoarthritis developing due to alternating load concentration by posterior pelvic tilt on preexisting anterior acetabular cyst such as our patient among the cases diagnosed as RDC without any identifiable etiology. The recognition of sagittal alignment changes and anterior acetabular cyst may play important role in prediction and prevention of the rapid hip osteoarthritis development similar to RDC.

Demographic studies of Joshua trees in Mojave Desert National Parks: demography with emphasis on germination and recruitment

Science.gov (United States)

Esque, T.C.; Reynolds, B.; DeFalco, L.A.; Waitman, B.A.; Hughson, Debra

2010-01-01

The study of population change with regard to reproduction, seed dispersal, and germination, establishment, growth, and survival/mortality is known as demography. Demographic studies provide managers with information to assess future trends on the density, distribution, health, and population changes of importance or value, including Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia). Demographic research provides the potential to understand the combined impacts of climate change and land-use practices and determine if strategies for protecting important species are likely to succeed or fall short of management goals and will identify factors that have the potential to de-stabilize populations outside the realm of natural variation so that management strategies can be developed to circumvent challenges for key species, processes, and ecosystems. The National Park Service and US Geological Survey are collaborating to collect demographic information about the demographics of Joshua tree in the Mojave Desert.

Effects of geological changes and climatic fluctuations on the demographic histories and low genetic diversity of Squaliobarbus curriculus in Yellow River.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Wei; Song, Na; Wang, Jun; Gao, Tianxiang

2016-09-15

The 104 samples of Squaliobarbus curriculus were collected from four localities in Yellow River and one region in Yangtze River. Analyses of the first hypervariable region of mitochondrial DNA control region of 555bp revealed only 15 polymorphism sites and defined 19 haplotypes. Low-to-moderate levels of haplotype diversity and low nucleotide diversity were observed in Yellow River populations (h=0.2529-0.7510, π=0.0712%-0.2197%). In contrast, Poyang Lake population showed high haplotype diversity and lower-middle nucleotide diversity (h=0.9636, π=0.5317%). Low genetic differentiation was estimated among Yellow River populations and significant level of genetic structure was detected between two rivers. Population genetic structure between two rivers was believed to be connected with geographical barriers and paleoclimatic events. The demographic history of S. curriculus in Yellow River examined by neutrality tests, mismatch distribution analysis, and Bayesian skyline analysis suggested a sudden and spatial population expansion dating to the Holocene. Climatic warming and changes of Yellow River course may have important effects on demographic facet of S. curriculus history. The same signal was also obtained on Poyang Lake population in late Pleistocene during the last interglacial period. During the period, the pronounced climatic change and the water system variation of PYL may have an important influence on the population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Diversity as valued and troubled: social identities and demographic categories in understandings of rapid urban growth in Vanuatu.

Science.gov (United States)

Widmer, Alexandra

2013-01-01

This paper deals with the simultaneous mainstreaming and diversification of ni-Vanuatu social categories associated with the ways in which population growth is understood as a possible crisis in both demographic knowledge and everyday ni-Vanuatu knowledge. The author is interested in understanding the downplaying but primarily the amplification of difference with respect to place, generation and gender identities. The relationship between reproduction, social reproduction and the multiple meanings of modernity is at issue. In the expert knowledge of demography that proffers advice for the ni-Vanuatu state, it is the lack of modern development - in the form of adequate biomedical birth control, western education, and the equality of women - that is the implicit cause of population growth. Yet, many ni-Vanuatu see population growth as tied to the troubles that arise from the dilution of traditional social forms: there is too much modernity. In both demographic and ni-Vanuatu everyday narrations of the potential population crisis, diversification and mainstreaming take place and vulnerabilities are produced.

Socio-Demographic Determinants of Eclampsia in Calabar; A Ten ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A ten-year review of the socio-demographic determinants of eclampsia was ... had past histories of eclampsia, while in 7 (18.4%) cases history of change of ... no formal education and 34.25% were subsistence farmers living in the suburbs of ...

Russian Federation : From the first to second demographic transition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zakharov, Sergei

2008-01-01

The demographic transition in Russia was accelerated by several social cataclysms during the "Soviet type" modernization. Frequent changes in the timing of births and marriages engendered a mass "abortion culture". Contraceptive devices of poor quality were produced on a limited scale. The Soviet

Random demographic household surveys in highly mobile pastoral communities in Chad

Science.gov (United States)

Béchir, Mahamat; Hattendorf, Jan; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Zinsstag, Jakob; Schelling, Esther

2011-01-01

Abstract Problem Reliable demographic data is a central requirement for health planning and management, and for the implementation of adequate interventions. This study addresses the lack of demographic data on mobile pastoral communities in the Sahel. Approach A total of 1081 Arab, Fulani and Gorane women and 2541 children (1336 boys and 1205 girls) were interviewed and registered by a biometric fingerprint scanner in five repeated random transect demographic and health surveys conducted from March 2007 to January 2008 in the Lake Chad region in Chad. Local setting Important determinants for the planning and implementation of household surveys among mobile pastoral communities include: environmental factors; availability of women for interviews; difficulties in defining “own” children; the need for information-education-communication campaigns; and informed consent of husbands in typically patriarchal societies. Relevant changes Due to their high mobility, only 5% (56/1081) of registered women were encountered twice. Therefore, it was not possible to establish a demographic and health cohort. Lessons learnt Prospective demographic and health cohorts are the most accurate method to assess child mortality and other demographic indices. However, their feasibility in a highly mobile pastoral setting remains to be shown. Future interdisciplinary scientific efforts need to target innovative methods, tools and approaches to include marginalized communities in operational health and demographic surveillance systems. PMID:21556307

Double Exposure and the Climate Gap: Changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Collins, Timothy W.; McDonald, Yolanda J.; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto

2013-01-01

Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed. PMID:25642135

A Demographic Approach to Evaluating Tree Population Sustainability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Corey R. Halpin

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Quantitative criteria for assessing demographic sustainability of tree populations would be useful in forest conservation, as climate change and a growing complex of invasive pests are likely to drive forests outside their historic range of variability. In this paper, we used CANOPY, a spatially explicit, individual‐tree model, to examine the effects of initial size distributions on sustainability of tree populations for 70 northern hardwood stands under current environmental conditions. A demographic sustainability index was calculated as the ratio of future simulated basal area to current basal area, given current demographic structure and density‐dependent demographic equations. Only steeply descending size distributions were indicated to be moderately or highly sustainable (final basal area/initial basal area ≥0.7 over several tree generations. Five of the six principal species had demographic sustainability index values of <0.6 in 40%–84% of the stands. However, at a small landscape scale, nearly all species had mean index values >1. Simulation experiments suggested that a minimum sapling density of 300 per hectare was required to sustain the initial basal area, but further increases in sapling density did not increase basal area because of coincident increases in mortality. A variable slope with high q‐ratios in small size classes was needed to maintain the existing overstory of mature and old‐growth stands. This analytical approach may be useful in identifying stands needing restoration treatments to maintain existing species composition in situations where forests are likely to have future recruitment limitations.

Demographic development of ukrainian rural area: lessons of history, modern socio-economic threats

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D.P. Melnychuk

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to urgent problems of demographic development of rural areas, their impact on socioeconomic processes at all levels of the national economic system. The content of demographic and economic antonyms of «demographic development» and «demographic catastrophe» has been characterized. The article analyzes the historical background of demographic change in rural areas, their socio-economic consequences. It’s reasonably concluded that the economic development of Ukraine requires urgent settlement of the negative socio-demographic trends that are characteristic for a Ukrainian village. Nowadays, these trends are of a destructive nature. They lead to a protracted crisis of agricultural production which is very difficult to overcome solely with the tools of technical and technological modernization. This will complicate the food security of the state for many years; lower the level and quality of life of the population, lead to greater territorial disparities and degradation of rural areas and the marginalization of residents of Ukrainian villages.

Evolution under changing climates: climatic niche stasis despite rapid evolution in a non-native plant.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Jake M

2013-09-22

A topic of great current interest is the capacity of populations to adapt genetically to rapidly changing climates, for example by evolving the timing of life-history events, but this is challenging to address experimentally. I use a plant invasion as a model system to tackle this question by combining molecular markers, a common garden experiment and climatic niche modelling. This approach reveals that non-native Lactuca serriola originates primarily from Europe, a climatic subset of its native range, with low rates of admixture from Asia. It has rapidly refilled its climatic niche in the new range, associated with the evolution of flowering phenology to produce clines along climate gradients that mirror those across the native range. Consequently, some non-native plants have evolved development times and grow under climates more extreme than those found in Europe, but not among populations from the native range as a whole. This suggests that many plant populations can adapt rapidly to changed climatic conditions that are already within the climatic niche space occupied by the species elsewhere in its range, but that evolution to conditions outside of this range is more difficult. These findings can also help to explain the prevalence of niche conservatism among non-native species.

Specific changes in rapidly transported proteins during regeneration of the goldfish optic nerve

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benowitz, L.I.; Shashoua, V.E.; Yoon, M.G.

1981-01-01

Double labeling methods were used to identify changes in the complement of proteins synthesized in the retinal ganglion cells and transported down the optic nerve during the process of axonal regeneration. Eight to 62 days after goldfish underwent a unilateral optic nerve crush, one eye was labeled with [3H]-, the other with [14C]proline. Control and regenerating optic nerves were dissected out and homogenized together after 5 hr, a time which allowed us to examine selectively membrane-bound components which migrate in the rapid phase of axoplasmic transport. Proteins from the two sides were so-purified and separated by sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Analysis of the 3H and 14C incorporation patterns along the gels revealed a radical shift away from the normal labeling spectrum during regeneration, with selective changes in labeling at particular molecular weights varying over a 3-fold range. Eight days after crushing the optic nerve, the greatest increases in labeling were seen for material with apparent molecular weights of 24,000 to 27,000, 44,000, and 210,000 daltons. These peaks declined thereafter, and on days 29 to 39, the most prominent increases were at 110,000 to 140,000 daltons. These studies indicate a continuously changing pattern in the synthesis and/or degradation of proteins that are rapidly transported down the optic nerve during regeneration and point to molecular species potential significance in the establishment of the visual map upon the brain

Rapidly Assessing Changes in Bone Mineral Balance Using Natural Stable Calcium Isotopes

Science.gov (United States)

Morgan, J. L. L.; Gordon, G. W.; Romaniello, S. J.; Skulan, J. L.; Smith, S. M.; Anbar, A. D.

2011-01-01

We demonstrate that variations in the Ca isotope ratios in urine rapidly and quantitatively reflect changes in bone mineral balance. This variation occurs because bone formation depletes soft tissue of light Ca isotopes, while bone resorption releases that isotopically light Ca back into soft tissue. In a study of 12 individuals confined to bed rest, a condition known to induce bone resorption, we show that Ca isotope ratios shift in a direction consistent with net bone loss after just 7 days, long before detectible changes in bone density occur. Consistent with this interpretation, the Ca isotope variations track changes observed in N-teleopeptide, a bone resorption biomarker, while bone-specific alkaline phosphatase, a bone formation biomarker, is unchanged. Ca isotopes can in principle be used to quantify net changes in bone mass. Ca isotopes indicate an average loss of 0.62 +/- 0.16 % in bone mass over the course of this 30-day study. The Ca isotope technique should accelerate the pace of discovery of new treatments for bone disease and provide novel insights into the dynamics of bone metabolism.

Demographic variables in coal miners’ safety attitude

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Wen-wen; Wu, Xiang; Ci, Hui-Peng; Qin, Shu-Qi; Liu, Jia-Long

2017-03-01

To change unsafe behavior through adjusting people’s safety attitudes has become an important measure to prevent accidents. Demographic variables, as influential factors of safety attitude, are fundamental and essential for the research. This research does a questionnaire survey among coal mine industry workers, and makes variance analysis and correlation analysis of the results in light of age, length of working years, educational level and experiences of accidents. The results show that the coal miners’ age, length of working years and accident experiences correlate lowly with safety attitudes, and those older coal miners with longer working years have better safety attitude, as coal miners without experiences of accident do.However, educational level has nothing to do with the safety attitude. Therefore, during the process of safety management, coal miners with different demographic characteristics should be put more attention to.

More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance.

Science.gov (United States)

Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries

2013-02-01

Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change.

Rapid change of ion energy distribution and floating potential at L/H transition in the JFT-2M tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miura, Y.; Nagashima, K.; Okano, F.

1994-01-01

Rapid changes of the main ion energy distribution at transitions from L-to-H, H-to-L and during ELMs are studied with the time of flight neutral measurement in the JFT-2M tokamak. The change of the main ion energy distribution after sawtooth crash during an L-mode phase is also studied. The change of the ion energy distribution just after sawtooth crash is the same as that at L/H-transition. The floating potential measured in the SOL also shows the rapid jump to more positive just after the sawtooth crash (at the same time of the change of an ion energy distribution). This shows the increase of ion outflux in the SOL and might correspond to the change of the ion energy distribution. This may be the reason why most of H-modes are triggered by a sawtooth. (author)

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, Christine M; Caswell, Hal; Runge, Michael C; Regehr, Eric V; Amstrup, Steve C; Stirling, Ian

2010-10-01

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population

A Study of the Demographics of Web-Based Health-Related Social Media Users.

Science.gov (United States)

Sadah, Shouq A; Shahbazi, Moloud; Wiley, Matthew T; Hristidis, Vagelis

2015-08-06

The rapid spread of Web-based social media in recent years has impacted how patients share health-related information. However, little work has studied the demographics of these users. Our aim was to study the demographics of users who participate in health-related Web-based social outlets to identify possible links to health care disparities. We analyze and compare three different types of health-related social outlets: (1) general Web-based social networks, Twitter and Google+, (2) drug review websites, and (3) health Web forums. We focus on the following demographic attributes: age, gender, ethnicity, location, and writing level. We build and evaluate domain-specific classifiers to infer missing data where possible. The estimated demographic statistics are compared against various baselines, such as Internet and social networks usage of the population. We found that (1) drug review websites and health Web forums are dominated by female users, (2) the participants of health-related social outlets are generally older with the exception of the 65+ years bracket, (3) blacks are underrepresented in health-related social networks, (4) users in areas with better access to health care participate more in Web-based health-related social outlets, and (5) the writing level of users in health-related social outlets is significantly lower than the reading level of the population. We identified interesting and actionable disparities in the participation of various demographic groups to various types of health-related social outlets. These disparities are significantly distinct from the disparities in Internet usage or general social outlets participation.

China’s “One-child family” demographic policy - Analyzing the consequences of the measures taken to confine the demographic growth of China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pascu, M.L.

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The so called “one-child policy” has brought economic benefits in China for the three decades since it was enforced, but it has also brought a series of disadvantages with consequences in the near future: increase of the dependency ratio in China with the accentuation of the population ageing phenomenon and the occurrence of disparities in the sex ratio that will lead to special social problems. Some experts believe that the simplistic reasoning behind the “one-child policy” might be responsible for the next demographic crisis. On one hand, the number of Chinese citizens is still growing. On the other hand China faces a very rapid aging of the population.

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL ASPECTS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING PROCESS IN THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olga SÂRBU

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose of this paper consists in analyzing economic and social aspects of demographic aging process in Moldova. To interpret the accumulated data and calculations performed analytical method of calculation tabular method and graphical method was applied. Intense process of aging is associated with changes in all spheres of social and economic life and affects equally the interests of older people and society as a whole. In Republic of Moldova aging population has grown in the last two decades, being conditioned both declining birth rate, which is very low and does not provide simple reproduction of the population and the mass migration of population that leads to the depopulation of the country. Maintaining the natural and migration increase with negative values amplifies the negative demographic deterioration of the country, which influences economic development, competitiveness and stability of the country and welfare of its citizens. In this situation it is necessary to respond positively to the challenges of demographic change through the complex and multisectoral approaches designed to correct current unfavorable demographic evolutions.

The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

McCauley, Lisa A.; Ribic, Christine; Pomara, Lars Y.; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2017-01-01

ContextTemperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few studies examining the effect of weather on grassland bird demography and consequent influence of climate change on population persistence and distributional shifts.ObjectivesThe goal of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of Henslow’s Sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii), an obligate grassland bird that has been declining throughout much of its range, to past and future climatic variability.MethodsWe conducted a demographic meta-analysis from published studies and quantified the relationship between nest success rates and variability in breeding season climate. We projected the climate-demography relationships spatially, throughout the breeding range, and temporally, from 1981 to 2050. These projections were used to evaluate population dynamics by implementing a spatially explicit population model.ResultsWe uncovered a climate-demography linkage for Henslow’s Sparrow with summer precipitation, and to a lesser degree, temperature positively affecting nest success. We found that future climatic conditions—primarily changes in precipitation—will likely contribute to reduced population persistence and a southwestward range contraction.ConclusionsFuture distributional shifts in response to climate change may not always be poleward and assessing projected changes in precipitation is critical for grassland bird conservation and climate change adaptation.

Are We Ready for the Approaching Demographic Tsunami?

Science.gov (United States)

Vargas, Bolgen; Conlon, Jill E.

2011-01-01

For those at the high school and college levels who have been tracking the demographic changes occurring throughout the United States during the past few decades, it came as no surprise when recent U.S. Census statistics revealed that the 2010 kindergarten class is 25% Hispanic, up from 19% in 2000, and 5% Asian, up from 4% in 2000. The class is…

The Impacts of Demographic Variables on Technological and Contextual Challenges of E-learning Implementation

Science.gov (United States)

Aldowah, Hanan; Ghazal, Samar; Naufal Umar, Irfan; Muniandy, Balakrishnan

2017-09-01

Information technology has achieved robust growth which has made it possible for learning to occur quickly. The rapid development of information, communication and technologies (ICT) has initiated an unparalleled transformation in universities all over the world. This development of technology and learning is offering new techniques to represent knowledge, new practices, and new global communities of learners. As a result, today’s economic and social changes force universities to try to find new learning approaches and systems. E-learning seems to be an appropriate approach in this aspect. However, the implementation of e-learning systems in universities is not an easy task because of some challenges related to context, technology, and other challenges. This paper studied the impacts of demographic data and reported the critical points for the decision makers to consider when planning and implementing e-learning in universities. A quantitative approach was used to study the effects of technological and contextual challenges on e-learning implementation in which a questionnaire was used for the data collection. According to the findings of the study, the most important challenges of the implementation of e-learning are related either to organizational (Contextual) and technological (technical) issues. The demographic variables have been found to play a direct and indirect role with the technological and contextual challenges of implementing e-learning. This paper showed that there are some significant differences in the two challenges faced by instructors in terms of the demographic variables. The result revealed that some significant differences exist between demographic variables and the two challenges of e-learning in terms of gender, age, teaching experience, ICT experience and e-learning experience. However, there is no significant difference in terms of e-learning experience. The obtained data, from such study, can provide information about what academic

Changing maternity leave policy: short-term effects on fertility rates and demographic variables in Germany.

Science.gov (United States)

Thyrian, Jochen René; Fendrich, Konstanze; Lange, Anja; Haas, Johannes-Peter; Zygmunt, Marek; Hoffmann, Wolfgang

2010-08-01

Changes in reproductive behaviour and decreasing fertility rates have recently led to policy actions that attempt to counteract these developments. Evidence on the efficacy of such policy interventions, however, is limited. The present analysis examines fertility rates and demographic variables of a population in Germany in response to new maternity leave regulations, which were introduced in January 2007. As part of a population-based survey of neonates in Pomerania (SNiP), all births in the study region from the period 23 months prior to January 1st, 2007 until 23 months afterwards were examined. Crude Birth Rates (CBR) per month, General Fertility Rates (GFR) per month, parity and sociodemographic variables were compared using bivariate techniques. Logistic regression analysis was performed. No statistically significant difference in the CBR or GFR after Jan. 1st, 2007 was found. There were statistically significant differences in other demographic variables, however. The proportion of mothers who (a) were employed full-time before pregnancy; (b) came from a higher socioeconomic status; and (c) had higher income levels all increased after January 1st, 2007. The magnitude of these effects was higher in multigravid women. Forward stepwise logistic regression found an odds ratio of 1.79 for women with a family income of more than 3000 euro to give birth after the new law was introduced. This is the first analysis of population-based data that examines fertility rates and sociodemographic variables in response to new legal regulations. No short-term effects on birth rates were detected, but there was a differential effect on the subgroup of multigravidae. The focus of this policy was to provide financial support, which is certainly important, but the complexity of having a child suggests that attitudinal and motivational aspects also need to be taken into account. Furthermore, these analyses were only able to evaluate the short-term consequences of the policy

SINGAPORE'S DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, THE LABOR FORCE AND GOVERNMENT POLICIES: THE LAST FIFTY YEARS

OpenAIRE

MUI TENG YAP; CHRISTOPHER GEE

2015-01-01

The trajectory of Singapore's population size and composition can be mapped out with its progression through the various phases of demographic transition from high birth and death rates in the post-war years to very low birth and death rates today, all within the context of rapid economic and social development that has taken place in the past 50 years. Population planning has been integral in Singapore's national development strategy, balancing the economy's needs for more and better qualifi...

Predicting bicycle helmet stage-of-change among middle school, high school, and college cyclists from demographic, cognitive, and motivational variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Weiss, Jeffrey; Okun, Morris; Quay, Nancy

2004-09-01

To apply Prochaska's Transtheoretical model of behavior change to bicycle helmet use among middle school, high school, and college students. A battery of questionnaires was administered to cyclists in the seventh and ninth grades and to college students in Phoenix, Arizona (N=797). The battery included: (1) a question to determine respondent's stage of behavior change in Prochaska's Transtheoretical model; (2) items assessing the perceived pros and cons of helmet use; (3) a bicycle safety knowledge test; and (4) demographic information. Forty-three percent of the students were in "Precontemplation," 17% were in either "Contemplation" or "Preparation," 16% were in either "Action" or "Maintenance," and 24% were in the "Relapse" stage of change. Grade, Sex, Knowledge, Pros, and Cons, and the Grade by sex and the Grade by knowledge interactions were significant predictors of helmet use stages. Compared with students in Precontemplation, students in the Contemplation stage were disproportionately younger and had higher Pro scores, lower Con scores, and more knowledge (except in the ninth grade). The Transtheoretical model of behavior change is a viable theoretical framework for designing interventions aimed at increasing bicycle helmet use in children and adolescents.

A decomposition analysis of change in skilled birth attendants, 2003 to 2008, Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Bosomprah, Samuel; Aryeetey, Genevieve Cecelia; Nonvignon, Justice; Adanu, Richard M

2014-12-24

The single most critical intervention to improve maternal and neonatal survival is to ensure that a competent health worker with midwifery skills is present at every birth, and transport is available to a referral facility for obstetric care in case of an emergency. This study aims to describe changes in percentage of skilled birth attendants in Ghana and to identify causes of the observed changes as well as the contribution of different categories of mother's characteristics to these changes. This study uses two successive nationally representative household surveys: the 2003 and 2008 Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS). The two datasets have comparable information on household characteristics and skilled attendants at birth at the time of the survey. The 2003 GDHS database includes information on 6,251 households and 3639 live births in the five years preceding the survey, whereas the 2008 GDHS database had information on11, 778 households and 2909 live births in the five years preceding the survey. A decomposition approach was used to explain the observed change in percentage of skilled birth attendants. Random-effects generalized least square regression was used to explore the effect of changes in population structure in respect of the mother's characteristics on percentage of skilled birth attendants over the period. Overall, the data showed absolute gain in the proportion of births attended by a health professional from 47.1% in 2003 to 58.7% in 2008, which represents 21.9% of gap closed to reach universal coverage. The increase in skilled birth attendants was found to be caused by changes in general health behaviour. The gain is regardless of the mother's characteristics. The structural change in the proportion of births in respect of birth order and mother's education had little effect on the change in percentage of skilled birth attendants. Improvement in general health behaviour can potentially contribute to an accelerated increase in proportion

Modulators of mercury risk to wildlife and humans in the context of rapid global change

Science.gov (United States)

Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Silbergeld, Ellen K.; Basu, Niladri; Bustamante, Paco; Diaz-Barriga, Fernando; Hopkins, William A.; Kidd, Karen A.; Nyland, Jennifer F.

2018-01-01

Environmental mercury (Hg) contamination is an urgent global health threat. The complexity of Hg in the environment can hinder accurate determination of ecological and human health risks, particularly within the context of the rapid global changes that are altering many ecological processes, socioeconomic patterns, and other factors like infectious disease incidence, which can affect Hg exposures and health outcomes. However, the success of global Hg-reduction efforts depends on accurate assessments of their effectiveness in reducing health risks. In this paper, we examine the role that key extrinsic and intrinsic drivers play on several aspects of Hg risk to humans and organisms in the environment. We do so within three key domains of ecological and human health risk. First, we examine how extrinsic global change drivers influence pathways of Hg bioaccumulation and biomagnification through food webs. Next, we describe how extrinsic socioeconomic drivers at a global scale, and intrinsic individual-level drivers, influence human Hg exposure. Finally, we address how the adverse health effects of Hg in humans and wildlife are modulated by a range of extrinsic and intrinsic drivers within the context of rapid global change. Incorporating components of these three domains into research and monitoring will facilitate a more holistic understanding of how ecological and societal drivers interact to influence Hg health risks.

Rapid evolution of phenology during range expansion with recent climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Lustenhouwer, Nicky; Wilschut, Rutger A; Williams, Jennifer L; van der Putten, Wim H; Levine, Jonathan M

2018-02-01

Although climate warming is expected to make habitat beyond species' current cold range edge suitable for future colonization, this new habitat may present an array of biotic or abiotic conditions not experienced within the current range. Species' ability to shift their range with climate change may therefore depend on how populations evolve in response to such novel environmental conditions. However, due to the recent nature of thus far observed range expansions, the role of rapid adaptation during climate change migration is only beginning to be understood. Here, we evaluated evolution during the recent native range expansion of the annual plant Dittrichia graveolens, which is spreading northward in Europe from the Mediterranean region. We examined genetically based differentiation between core and edge populations in their phenology, a trait that is likely under selection with shorter growing seasons and greater seasonality at northern latitudes. In parallel common garden experiments at range edges in Switzerland and the Netherlands, we grew plants from Dutch, Swiss, and central and southern French populations. Population genetic analysis following RAD-sequencing of these populations supported the hypothesized central France origins of the Swiss and Dutch range edge populations. We found that in both common gardens, northern plants flowered up to 4 weeks earlier than southern plants. This differentiation in phenology extended from the core of the range to the Netherlands, a region only reached from central France over approximately the last 50 years. Fitness decreased as plants flowered later, supporting the hypothesized benefits of earlier flowering at the range edge. Our results suggest that native range expanding populations can rapidly adapt to novel environmental conditions in the expanded range, potentially promoting their ability to spread. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Demographic Consequences of Defeating Aging

OpenAIRE

Gavrilov, Leonid A.; Gavrilova, Natalia S.

2010-01-01

A common objection against starting a large-scale biomedical war on aging is the fear of catastrophic population consequences (overpopulation). This fear is only exacerbated by the fact that no detailed demographic projections for radical life extension scenario have been conducted so far. This study explores different demographic scenarios and population projections, in order to clarify what could be the demographic consequences of a successful biomedical war on aging. A general conclusion o...

EJSCREEN Version 1, Demographic Data

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This map service displays demographic data used in EJSCREEN. All demographic data were derived from American Community Survey 2006-2010 estimates. EJSCREEN is an...

Economic Effects of Demographic Ageing

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Litra A.V.

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Romania goes through profound changes due to unprecedented demographic developments. As a result of declining birth rates and emigration after 1990, by the year 2060 is looming a possible doubling of the percentage of the population 65 years and over, from 15 to 30%, and the working age population to fall by about 30 percent. Deterioration of the relationship between labour force and inactive population leads to pressure on the public budget and tax system, strains on pension and social security systems, redefining consumer preferences, type and size of the saved or spent amounts, higher demand for healthcare services, increasing poverty risk for elderly households.

Demographic modelling reveals a history of divergence with gene flow for a glacially tied stonefly in a changing post-Pleistocene landscape

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Hotaling, Scott; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Giersch, J. Joseph; Ali, Omar; Jordan, Steve; Miller, Michael R.; Luikart, Gordon; Weisrock, David W.

2018-01-01

AimClimate warming is causing extensive loss of glaciers in mountainous regions, yet our understanding of how glacial recession influences evolutionary processes and genetic diversity is limited. Linking genetic structure with the influences shaping it can improve understanding of how species respond to environmental change. Here, we used genome-scale data and demographic modelling to resolve the evolutionary history of Lednia tumana, a rare, aquatic insect endemic to alpine streams. We also employed a range of widely used data filtering approaches to quantify how they influenced population structure results.LocationAlpine streams in the Rocky Mountains of Glacier National Park, Montana, USA.TaxonLednia tumana, a stonefly (Order Plecoptera) in the family Nemouridae.MethodsWe generated single nucleotide polymorphism data through restriction-site associated DNA sequencing to assess contemporary patterns of genetic structure for 11 L. tumana populations. Using identified clusters, we assessed demographic history through model selection and parameter estimation in a coalescent framework. During population structure analyses, we filtered our data to assess the influence of singletons, missing data and total number of markers on results.ResultsContemporary patterns of population structure indicate that L. tumana exhibits a pattern of isolation-by-distance among populations within three genetic clusters that align with geography. Mean pairwise genetic differentiation (FST) among populations was 0.033. Coalescent-based demographic modelling supported divergence with gene flow among genetic clusters since the end of the Pleistocene (~13-17 kya), likely reflecting the south-to-north recession of ice sheets that accumulated during the Wisconsin glaciation.Main conclusionsWe identified a link between glacial retreat, evolutionary history and patterns of genetic diversity for a range-restricted stonefly imperiled by climate change. This finding included a history of

The demographic divide : Population dynamics, race and the rise of mass incarceration in the United States

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Campbell, Michael C.; Vogel, M.S.

2017-01-01

This manuscript examines whether certain fundamental demographic changes in age structures across racial groups might help explain incarceration rates in the United States. We argue that a “demographic divide”—a growing divergence in the age structures of blacks and whites—was an important factor

Trends in mass media exposure upon women: A review of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey

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Yasmin Jahan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Background With the rapid advancement of technology, mass media acquired widespread exposure upon major portion of the world population. The overall media platform has smooth access into peoples’ everyday lifestyle through routine tele transmission of all the existing media (such as broadcast, print, digital, outdoor media etc.. Mass media platform is one of the few most powerful influential factors causing dynamic behavioral changes. Objective To assess mass media exposure and it’s changing trends in Bangladesh using data from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS from 1993- 94 to 2014. Methods The study used data from the published reports of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHS 1993-1994 to BDHS 2014. Results In the years of 1999-2000, 2004, 2007, 2014 women aged 20-24 years (41%, 54%, 56%, 57% respectively have passed more time watching television in weekly basis than the other age groups. Higher percentage was observed among the educated women than uneducated from 1999-2000 to 2014 who has made access to all three media (television, radio and newspaper at least once a week. Proportion of women who had accessed all three media at least once a week was much higher in the highest quintile families than the lowest quintile families and more exposure in urban women than the rural women. The region-wise coverage was higher in 1999-2000 in case of Chittagong (5.2%, Dhaka (4.7%, Khulna (5.1%, Rajshahi (3.1%, and Sylhet (3.9% division with access to all three media at least once a week except Barisal division. Conclusion Findings show higher percentage of television watching tendency among comparatively more educated and economically flourished urban women. Therefore, the major policy challenge addressees the need for designing of communications strategies targeting the less privileged, rural and illiterate people who constitute the majority of population in Bangladesh.

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: A stochastic demographic analysis

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Hunter, C.M.; Caswell, H.; Runge, M.C.; Regehr, E.V.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

2010-01-01

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in ?? in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log ??s, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log ??s ' - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic

A climate for speciation: rapid spatial diversification within the Sorex cinereus complex of shrews

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Hope, Andrew G.; Speer, Kelly A.; Demboski, John R.; Talbot, Sandra L.; Cook, Joseph A.

2012-01-01

The cyclic climate regime of the late Quaternary caused dramatic environmental change at high latitudes. Although these events may have been brief in periodicity from an evolutionary standpoint, multiple episodes of allopatry and divergence have been implicated in rapid radiations of a number of organisms. Shrews of the Sorex cinereus complex have long challenged taxonomists due to similar morphology and parapatric geographic ranges. Here, multi-locus phylogenetic and demographic assessments using a coalescent framework were combined to investigate spatiotemporal evolution of 13 nominal species with a widespread distribution throughout North America and across Beringia into Siberia. For these species, we first test a hypothesis of recent differentiation in response to Pleistocene climate versus more ancient divergence that would coincide with pre-Pleistocene perturbations. We then investigate the processes driving diversification over multiple continents. Our genetic analyses highlight novel diversity within these morphologically conserved mammals and clarify relationships between geographic distribution and evolutionary history. Demography within and among species indicates both regional stability and rapid expansion. Ancestral ecological differentiation coincident with early cladogenesis within the complex enabled alternating and repeated episodes of allopatry and expansion where successive glacial and interglacial phases each promoted divergence. The Sorex cinereus complex constitutes a valuable model for future comparative assessments of evolution in response to cyclic environmental change.

SOCIAL POLICY AND DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION OF THE LIPETSK REGION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. A. Pavlova

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In 2016–2018 are carried out actions of the second stage of a demographic policy of the Russian Federation for the period till 2025. During the look-ahead period it is supposed to develop and pass the federal law provided by articles 133 and 421 Labor codes of the Russian Federation by which the order of finishing of the minimum wage rate till the size of a living wage of able-bodied population of subjects will be established. In the Law of the Russian Federation from April, 19th, 1991 N 1032-1 “changes will be passed About population employment in the Russian Federation”, providing entering of specifications into an order and terms of payment of the unemployment benefits directed on an exception of abusing’s at reception of the unemployment benefit, and also essentially increasing the size of the given grant for separate categories of citizens. In the Law of the Russian Federation “changes will be passed About population employment in the Russian Federation” regarding an establishment of powers of enforcement authorities of subjects of the Russian Federation, employers on placing of the information on conditions of attraction of citizens for realization of labor activity with a view of perfection of an information portal “Work in Russia” and to filling by its trustworthy information. In state and the level subjectsof programs join problems and actions which urged to improve a demographic situation. Federal and regional programs of social and economic development join the questions connected with revealing of problem directions. On the basis of the received information perspective lines of activity and actions for management of a situation are developed. In subject’s programs of social and economic development are developed and take root. The accepted programs allow to reveal in due time demographic tendencies during the current period and to react by means of acceptance of administrative decisions. On the levelsubject’sit is

The people yet to come; avoiding the demographic trap.

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Brown, L R

1987-01-01

The demographic trap is defined as the condition where a nation has passed through the process of lowering death rates, but has not been able to lower birth rates before ecological carrying capacity is exceeded. A minimal estimate predicts that by the year 2000, 63 countries, or 1.1 billion people, will be trapped by starvation, dependence on imported food, and resulting economic and political instability. Such a country that failed to complete the demographic transition will fall back to the original stage, of high death as well as birth rates. Most nations in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa are at risk, notably Mexico, India, Nigeria, Ethiopia, because they already have falling living standards coupled with rapid growth rates. Most governments are unaware of the subtle signs that carrying capacity has been exceeded. Even those that are able to understand such events, often practice ineffective policies. For example, the U.S. has dropped U.N.F.P.A. support ostensibly because one nation, China, allowed forced abortions. On the other hand, some third world countries have initiated novel campaigns to reduce births, for example popular media campaigns in Mexico, free dissemination of birth control pills to all women in Brazil, and a separate family planning ministry in Zimbabwe.

[Demographic transition or revolution? The weaknesses and implications of the demographic transition theory. Part 1: the origins].

Science.gov (United States)

Bourcier De Carbon, P

1998-01-01

The work of Adolphe Landry is reviewed in relation to development of demographic transition theory. Landry was appointed administrator in 1912 of the National Alliance Against Depopulation and remained active in it his whole life. He also helped create family allowance programs in France. As early as 1909, Landry described three different population regimes. In the "primitive" regime, which characterized all nonhuman life and human life during most of history, the population was adjusted to available subsistence by mortality. In the "intermediate" phase, restrictions on marriage and control of reproduction outside marriage maintained the population at a level below the maximum supportable. In the "contemporary" regime, the universal practice of contraception and abortion could lead to very low levels of fertility. The spread of contraception and low fertility appeared to Landry a true demographic revolution. He attributed the acceptance of contraception to a change in the common aspirations of human beings regarding their conditions, a desire for improved material well-being and social advancement, and an increased spirit of rationality and even calculation in their behavior. Landry believed that the contemporary regime, unlike the preceding two, had no mechanism implying equilibrium. The demographic revolution freed fertility from social determinants and linked it more closely to individual interests. Landry expected the contemporary regime to spread throughout the entire world, with many areas still in the primitive phase passing directly to the contemporary. He was concerned with the effects of demographic aging, and he deplored birth control propaganda that claimed it as a cure for unemployment and for overpopulation in the poor Asian countries. The birth control movements in England and the US were successful in bringing the two countries into the contemporary regime. A number of organizations such as the Population Association of America and the Office of

The role of employee assistance programs in the era of rapid change in the health care delivery system.

Science.gov (United States)

Sumerall, S W; Israel, A R; Brewer, R; Prew, R E

1999-01-01

With the rapid changes occurring in the American healthcare system, questions regarding various aspects of care have arisen. These changes have led to the need for individuals working within an Employee Assistance Program (EAP) to respond quickly and effectively to crisis situations. This article summarizes the different roles and responsibilities of EAP workers in the healthcare marketplace.

Rapid landscape change in 6th century northern Jordan: interdisciplinary geoarchaeological perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Lucke, Bernhard

2016-04-01

Landscapes of the ancient fertile crescent are considered affected by soil degradation as result of long-term farming since the Neolithic, and impressive ruins of antiquity led to assumptions that their abandonment must have been conntected with reduced agricultural productivity. In this context, a valley fill near the site of Abila of the Decapolis in northern Jordan was apparently deposited largely during the 6th century AD, and provides evidence for a rapid and intense landscape change during the Late Byzantine period. However, an interdisciplinary case study of land use, soil development, and sediments found that the valley fill cannot be connected with large-scale soil erosion in the vicinity of the site. On the one hand, this is indicated by the distribution of soil development and archaeological material as marker of past land use activity in the past, which suggests that the best soils were and still are used intensively. On the other hand, the sediments seem to point to the occurrence of climatic extremes such as heavy floods, the occurrence of soil creep after water saturation, but also a significant shift to aridity which may have triggered socio-economic changes of subsistence strategies from agriculture to pastoralism. The dates of sediments which are available so far indicate that the climatic change seemingly occurred rapidly within approximately 100 years during the late 6th and early 7th century AD, possibly connected with the "year without sun" or 'Mystery Veil' which the Byzantine historian Procopius described in the year 536 AD. Modern analogies of the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 let it seem possible that a volcanic event, perhaps the outbreak of the Ilopango volcano, was connected with these environmental turbulences. Such events cannot be understood by isolated studies: without a broad interdisciplinary framework, single archives are prone to misinterpretation, and our understanding of the environmental history of Abila is still very limited.

Matrix dimensions bias demographic inferences: implications for comparative plant demography.

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Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Plotkin, Joshua B

2010-12-01

While the wealth of projection matrices in plant demography permits comparative studies, variation in matrix dimensions complicates interspecific comparisons. Collapsing matrices to a common dimension may facilitate such comparisons but may also bias the inferred demographic parameters. Here we examine how matrix dimension affects inferred demographic elasticities and how different collapsing criteria perform. We analyzed 13 x 13 matrices representing nine plant species, collapsing these matrices (i) into even 7 x 7, 5 x 5, 4 x 4, and 3 x 3 matrices and (ii) into 5 x 5 matrices using different criteria. Stasis and fecundity elasticities increased when matrix dimension was reduced, whereas those of progression and retrogression decreased. We suggest a collapsing criterion that minimizes dissimilarities between the original- and collapsed-matrix elasticities and apply it to 66 plant species to study how life span and growth form influence the relationship between matrix dimension and elasticities. Our analysis demonstrates that (i) projection matrix dimension has significant effects on inferred demographic parameters, (ii) there are better-performing methods than previously suggested for standardizing matrix dimension, and (iii) herbaceous perennial projection matrices are particularly sensitive to changes in matrix dimensionality. For comparative demographic studies, we recommend normalizing matrices to a common dimension by collapsing higher classes and leaving the first few classes unaltered.

Industrialization, urbanization and demographic change in England; Igirisu ni okeru kogyoka toshika to jinko mondai

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yasumoto, M. [Komazawa University, Tokyo (Japan). Faculty of Economics

1994-12-15

In order to study the effects of progress in industrialization and urbanization on societies and economy, analyses were performed on the northern England in the period of the Industrial Revolution. The rapid expansion of the city of Leeds in the 1780`s and on had brought about the increase in employment opportunities in the suburban farming villages, as well as drop in matrimonial age in agricultural and coal mine workers, and the rapid population increase. Housing conditions for those workers who had flown into the city from agricultural villages in a large number were of very poor quality, and their living standard was low. More than half of the patients visiting the charity hospital in Leeds City came from the urban area, with industrial accidents such as injuries in young workers noticed remarkably high. Many women were included in them, from which the progress in mechanization of the textile industry in Leeds and its surrounding areas can well be imagined. The attributes of households, families, and population were divided into diverse structures and hierarchies, according to the residential construction form and work income earner rates in family constituting members were also various. The development urbanization and industrialization had given diversified effects on households, families, population, and life cycles in city dwellers through changes in housing environments. 2 refs., 1 fig., 7 tabs.

Demographic development, climatic change, peak oil. Answers to spatial planning, urban planning and traffic planning; Demografische Entwicklung, Klimawandel, Peak Oil. Antworten der Raum-, Stadt- und Verkehrsplanung

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huber, Felix

2011-07-01

The demographic trends, climate change and peak oil are highly sensitive issues politically. With fears about the future and the curiosity on the future attention can be aroused. Therefore, the author of the contribution under consideration reports on the following aspects: (1) Why should we deal with future challenges?; (2) Presentation of the tools of spatial planning, urban planning and transportation planning in the context of the particular requirements of their time; (3) Clarification of the requirements to future tools; (4) Presentation of the future tasks of spatial planning and the changes in lifestyle.

Household size and urban spatial change: end of an era?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Sinclair

2004-01-01

Full Text Available A dominant demographic trend of the last few decades has been the declining size of householdsin Western industrialized countries. Following closely upon the Baby Boom, thedevelopment became a major topic of discussion for almost two decades. The basis for, andconsequences of, these changes have been well covered in the demographic literature, buttheir spatial implications have received less attention. Yet the, phenomenon has had a profoundspatial impact at every level of the urban system. Recent statistics indicate that householdsize continues to decline, but does so at a rapidly decreasing rate. The present paperconsiders the spatial repercussions of this trend. More specifically, the paper has three aims.(1 The paper summarizes and puts into present-day perspective, a volume of research conducteda decade ago upon the spatial impact of declining household size upon the U.S.urban system (Sinclair, 1991. (2 Considers more recent demographic developments, askingwhether the impact of declining household size upon the urban system is declining orcoming to a close, (3 Considers other demographic developments which might he takingthe place of declining household size in driving the urban system. In sum, the paper attemptsto answer the question. Is an era, which has signifycantly impacted the U.S. urbansystem, coming to a close?

Rapid gene expression changes in peripheral blood lymphocytes upon practice of a comprehensive yoga program.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Su Qu

Full Text Available One of the most common integrative medicine (IM modalities is yoga and related practices. Previous work has shown that yoga may improve wellness in healthy people and have benefits for patients. However, the mechanisms of how yoga may positively affect the mind-body system are largely unknown. Here we have assessed possible rapid changes in global gene expression profiles in the peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs in healthy people that practiced either a comprehensive yoga program or a control regimen. The experimental sessions included gentle yoga postures, breathing exercises, and meditation (Sudarshan Kriya and Related Practices--SK&P compared with a control regimen of a nature walk and listening to relaxing music. We show that the SK&P program has a rapid and significantly greater effect on gene expression in PBMCs compared with the control regimen. These data suggest that yoga and related practices result in rapid gene expression alterations which may be the basis for their longer term cell biological and higher level health effects.

Demographics and the Changing National Security Environment

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

2000-01-01

.... Long- term fertility trends, urbanization, migration, and changes in the ethnic composition and age profile of populations can influence the likelihood and nature of conflict among and within nations...

The level and patterns of fertility among women in Kersa Demographic Surveillance and Health Research Center (KDS-HRC) Field site, Kersa District, East Ethiopia

OpenAIRE

Zelalem, Desalew; Semahegn, Agumasie; Tesfaye, Gezahegn; Sileshi, Balewgize

2015-01-01

Background Fertility is one of the three principal components of population dynamics. High fertility and rapid population growth exert negative influences on economic and social development. This study was aimed to estimate the level and trends of fertility among (15?49 years) old women in kersa demographic surveillance and health research center, kersa district Eastern Ethiopia. Methods The study was conducted at kersa demographic surveillance and health research center in kersa district, Ea...

Toward linking demographic and economic models for impact assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, C.A.; Meenan, C.D.

1991-01-01

One of the objectives of the Yucca Mountain Project, in Southern Nevada, is to evaluate the effects of the development of a high-level nuclear waste repository. As described in the Section 175 Report to the Congress of the US, the temporal scope of this repository project encompasses approximately 70 years and includes four phases: Site characterization and licensing, construction, operation, and closure and decommissioning. If retrieval of the waste were to be required, the temporal scope of the repository project could be extended to approximately 100 years. The study of the potential socioeconomic effects of this project is the foundation for this paper. This paper focuses on the economic and demographic aspects and a possible method to interface the two. First, the authors briefly discuss general socioeconomic modeling theory from a county level view point, as well as methods for the apportionment of county level data to sub-county areas. Next, the authors describe the unique economic and demographic conditions which exist in Nevada at both the state and county levels. Finally, the authors evaluate a possible procedure for analyzing repository effects at a sub-county level; this involves discussion of an interface linking the economic and demographic aspects, which is based on the reconciliation of supply and demand for labor. The authors conclude that the basis for further model development may rely on the interaction of supply and demand to produce change in wage rates. These changes in expected wages should be a justification for allocating economic migrants (who may respond to Yucca Mountain Project development) into various communities

Older drivers and rapid deceleration events: Salisbury Eye Evaluation Driving Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Keay, Lisa; Munoz, Beatriz; Duncan, Donald D; Hahn, Daniel; Baldwin, Kevin; Turano, Kathleen A; Munro, Cynthia A; Bandeen-Roche, Karen; West, Sheila K

2013-09-01

Drivers who rapidly change speed while driving may be more at risk for a crash. We sought to determine the relationship of demographic, vision, and cognitive variables with episodes of rapid decelerations during five days of normal driving in a cohort of older drivers. In the Salisbury Eye Evaluation Driving Study, 1425 older drivers aged 67-87 were recruited from the Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration's rolls for licensees in Salisbury, Maryland. Participants had several measures of vision tested: visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, visual fields, and the attentional visual field. Participants were also tested for various domains of cognitive function including executive function, attention, psychomotor speed, and visual search. A custom created driving monitoring system (DMS) was used to capture rapid deceleration events (RDEs), defined as at least 350 milli-g deceleration, during a five day period of monitoring. The rate of RDE per mile driven was modeled using a negative binomial regression model with an offset of the logarithm of the number of miles driven. We found that 30% of older drivers had one or more RDE during a five day period, and of those, about 1/3 had four or more. The rate of RDE per mile driven was highest for those drivers drivingRDE's were more likely to have better scores in cognitive tests of psychomotor speed and visual search, and have faster brake reaction time. Further, greater average speed and maximum speed per driving segment was protective against RDE events. In conclusion, contrary to our hypothesis, older drivers who perform rapid decelerations tend to be more "fit", with better measures of vision and cognition compared to those who do not have events of rapid deceleration. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wiki management a revolutionary new model for a rapidly changing and collaborative world

CERN Document Server

Collins, Rod

2013-01-01

We now live in a "wiki" world where mass collaboration is not only possible-it's often the best solution. Conventional management thought assumes that command-and-control is the most effective way to organize the efforts of large numbers of people, but rapid change and increasing complexity have rendered that model obsolete. As a result, most managers today lack the skills and knowledge needed to succeed in an age when networks are proving smarter and faster than hierarchies. Designing organizations for mass collaboration demands a new and very different model-wiki management.

[Demographic development of Croatia, 1991-1994].

Science.gov (United States)

Lajic, I

1995-01-01

"The demographic development of Croatia in the period 1991-1994, marked by... Serbian aggression, the state of ¿half-war', and the war in Bosnia and Hercegovina, should be described as irregular--its components being determined by the above conditions. This proves especially true concerning forced migrations and their past and future influence on population change. The paper analyzes the insufficiently studied topic of war mortality, as well as various dimensions of the refugee population. It also emphasizes several structural characteristics of the population, particularly its ethnic structure, and the population dynamics in the temporarily occupied territories." (EXCERPT)

Decomposing demographic change into direct vs. compositional components

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vaupel, James W.; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir

2002-01-01

of averages over age and over subpopulations. Examples include decomposition of the change over time in the average age at childbearing and in the general fertility rate for China, Denmark and Mexico. A decomposition of the change over time in the crude death rate in Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands...

A Bottom-up Vulnerability Analysis of Water Systems with Decentralized Decision Making and Demographic Shifts- the Case of Jordan.

Science.gov (United States)

Lachaut, T.; Yoon, J.; Klassert, C. J. A.; Talozi, S.; Mustafa, D.; Knox, S.; Selby, P. D.; Haddad, Y.; Gorelick, S.; Tilmant, A.

2016-12-01

Probabilistic approaches to uncertainty in water systems management can face challenges of several types: non stationary climate, sudden shocks such as conflict-driven migrations, or the internal complexity and dynamics of large systems. There has been a rising trend in the development of bottom-up methods that place focus on the decision side instead of probability distributions and climate scenarios. These approaches are based on defining acceptability thresholds for the decision makers and considering the entire range of possibilities over which such thresholds are crossed. We aim at improving the knowledge on the applicability and relevance of this approach by enlarging its scope beyond climate uncertainty and single decision makers; thus including demographic shifts, internal system dynamics, and multiple stakeholders at different scales. This vulnerability analysis is part of the Jordan Water Project and makes use of an ambitious multi-agent model developed by its teams with the extensive cooperation of the Ministry of Water and Irrigation of Jordan. The case of Jordan is a relevant example for migration spikes, rapid social changes, resource depletion and climate change impacts. The multi-agent modeling framework used provides a consistent structure to assess the vulnerability of complex water resources systems with distributed acceptability thresholds and stakeholder interaction. A proof of concept and preliminary results are presented for a non-probabilistic vulnerability analysis that involves different types of stakeholders, uncertainties other than climatic and the integration of threshold-based indicators. For each stakeholder (agent) a vulnerability matrix is constructed over a multi-dimensional domain, which includes various hydrologic and/or demographic variables.

Rapid response of a marine mammal species to holocene climate and habitat change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark de Bruyn

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Environmental change drives demographic and evolutionary processes that determine diversity within and among species. Tracking these processes during periods of change reveals mechanisms for the establishment of populations and provides predictive data on response to potential future impacts, including those caused by anthropogenic climate change. Here we show how a highly mobile marine species responded to the gain and loss of new breeding habitat. Southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, remains were found along the Victoria Land Coast (VLC in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, 2,500 km from the nearest extant breeding site on Macquarie Island (MQ. This habitat was released after retreat of the grounded ice sheet in the Ross Sea Embayment 7,500-8,000 cal YBP, and is within the range of modern foraging excursions from the MQ colony. Using ancient mtDNA and coalescent models, we tracked the population dynamics of the now extinct VLC colony and the connectivity between this and extant breeding sites. We found a clear expansion signal in the VLC population approximately 8,000 YBP, followed by directional migration away from VLC and the loss of diversity at approximately 1,000 YBP, when sea ice is thought to have expanded. Our data suggest that VLC seals came initially from MQ and that some returned there once the VLC habitat was lost, approximately 7,000 years later. We track the founder-extinction dynamics of a population from inception to extinction in the context of Holocene climate change and present evidence that an unexpectedly diverse, differentiated breeding population was founded from a distant source population soon after habitat became available.

Rapid response of a marine mammal species to holocene climate and habitat change.

Science.gov (United States)

de Bruyn, Mark; Hall, Brenda L; Chauke, Lucas F; Baroni, Carlo; Koch, Paul L; Hoelzel, A Rus

2009-07-01

Environmental change drives demographic and evolutionary processes that determine diversity within and among species. Tracking these processes during periods of change reveals mechanisms for the establishment of populations and provides predictive data on response to potential future impacts, including those caused by anthropogenic climate change. Here we show how a highly mobile marine species responded to the gain and loss of new breeding habitat. Southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, remains were found along the Victoria Land Coast (VLC) in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, 2,500 km from the nearest extant breeding site on Macquarie Island (MQ). This habitat was released after retreat of the grounded ice sheet in the Ross Sea Embayment 7,500-8,000 cal YBP, and is within the range of modern foraging excursions from the MQ colony. Using ancient mtDNA and coalescent models, we tracked the population dynamics of the now extinct VLC colony and the connectivity between this and extant breeding sites. We found a clear expansion signal in the VLC population approximately 8,000 YBP, followed by directional migration away from VLC and the loss of diversity at approximately 1,000 YBP, when sea ice is thought to have expanded. Our data suggest that VLC seals came initially from MQ and that some returned there once the VLC habitat was lost, approximately 7,000 years later. We track the founder-extinction dynamics of a population from inception to extinction in the context of Holocene climate change and present evidence that an unexpectedly diverse, differentiated breeding population was founded from a distant source population soon after habitat became available.

Observation of reversible, rapid changes in drug susceptibility of hypoxic tumor cells in a microfluidic device

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Germain, Todd; Ansari, Megan; Pappas, Dimitri, E-mail: d.pappas@ttu.edu

2016-09-14

Hypoxia is a major stimulus for increased drug resistance and for survival of tumor cells. Work from our group and others has shown that hypoxia increases resistance to anti-cancer compounds, radiation, and other damage-pathway cytotoxic agents. In this work we utilize a microfluidic culture system capable of rapid switching of local oxygen concentrations to determine changes in drug resistance in prostate cancer cells. We observed rapid adaptation to hypoxia, with drug resistance to 2 μM staurosporine established within 30 min of hypoxia. Annexin-V/Sytox Green apoptosis assays over 9 h showed 78.0% viability, compared to 84.5% viability in control cells (normoxic cells with no staurosporine). Normoxic cells exposed to the same staurosporine concentration had a viability of 48.6% after 9 h. Hypoxia adaptation was rapid and reversible, with Hypoxic cells treated with 20% oxygen for 30 min responding to staurosporine with 51.6% viability after drug treatment for 9 h. Induction of apoptosis through the receptor-mediated pathway, which bypasses anti-apoptosis mechanisms induced by hypoxia, resulted in 39.4 ± 7% cell viability. The rapid reversibility indicates co-treatment of oxygen with anti-cancer compounds may be a potential therapeutic target. - Highlights: • Microfluidic system switches rapidly between normoxia and hypoxia (5 min). • Observation of rapid adaptation of PC3 cells to hypoxia and normoxia (30 min). • Drug susceptibility in tumor cells restored after chip switched to normoxia for 30 min.

Influences of sex and activity level on physiological changes in individual adult sockeye salmon during rapid senescence.

Science.gov (United States)

Hruska, Kimberly A; Hinch, Scott G; Healey, Michael C; Patterson, David A; Larsson, Stefan; Farrell, Anthony P

2010-01-01

A noninvasive biopsy protocol was used to sample plasma and gill tissue in individual sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) during the critical life stage associated with spawning-arrival at a spawning channel through senescence to death several days later. Our main objective was to characterize the physiological changes associated with rapid senescence in terms of the physiological stress/cortisol hypersecretion model and the energy exhaustion model. Salmon lived an average of 5 d in the spawning channel, during which time there were three major physiological trends that were independent of sexual status: a large increase in plasma indicators of stress and exercise (i.e., lactate and cortisol), a decrease in the major plasma ions (i.e., Cl(-) and Na(+)) and osmolality, and a decrease in gross somatic energy reserves. Contrary to a generalized stress response, plasma glucose decreased in approximately 2/3 of the fish after arrival, as opposed to increasing. Furthermore, plasma cortisol levels at spawning-ground arrival were not correlated with the degree of ionoregulatory changes during rapid senescence. One mechanism of mortality in some fish may involve the exhaustion of energy reserves, resulting in the inability to mobilize plasma glucose. Sex had a significant modulating effect on the degree of physiological change. Females exhibited a greater magnitude of change for gross somatic energy, osmolality, and plasma concentrations of Cl(-), Na(+), cortisol, testosterone, 11-ketotestosterone, 17,20beta-progesterone, and estradiol. The activity level of an individual on the spawning grounds appeared to influence the degree of some physiological changes during senescence. For example, males that received a greater frequency of attacks exhibited larger net decreases in plasma 11-ketotestosterone while on the spawning grounds. These results suggest that rapid senescence on spawning grounds is influenced by multiple physiological processes and perhaps behavior. This study

Stock vs. Bond Yields, and Demographic Fluctuations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gozluklu, Arie; Morin, Annaïg

This paper analyzes the strong comovement between real stock and nominal bond yields at generational (low) frequencies. Life-cycle patterns in savings behavior in an overlapping generations model with cash-in-advance constraints explain this persistent comovement between financial yields. We argue...... that the slow-evolving time-series covariation due to changing population age structure accounts for the equilibrium relation between stock and bond markets. As a result, by exploiting the demographic information into distant future, the forecasting performance of evaluation models improves. Finally, using...

Multivariate effect gradients driving forest demographic responses in the Iberian Peninsula

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Coll, Marta; Penuelas, Josep; Ninyerola, Miquel; Pons, Xavier; Carnicer, Jofre

2013-01-01

A precise knowledge of forest demographic gradients in the Mediterranean area is essential to assess future impacts of climate change and extreme drought events. Here we studied the geographical patterns of forest demography variables (tree recruitment, growth and mortality) of the main species in

The demographic picture of Belgrade at the beginning of the 21st century

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Rašević Mirjana

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The central part of this paper is devoted to establishing the demographic picture of the City of Belgrade at the beginning of the 21st century. The authors discuss the number of inhabitants and the components of demographic growth through natural increase (fertility and mortality on the one hand and net migration on the other. Special attention was paid to the problem of refugees (the number and special distribution of refugees. Age and sex structure, the structure by marital status, as well as educational, and economic structures were analyzed. Current ethnic structure, as well as the changes in this structure since the early 1990s, were also presented. The analysis of the demographic picture has made it possible, first of all, to show the implications for the future of the established population trends, and second of all, to single out the basic demographic problems that need to be addressed strategically by the City of Belgrade and by the State.

Demographically idiosyncratic responses to climate change and rapid Pleistocene diversification of the walnut genus Juglans (Juglandaceae) revealed by whole-genome sequences

Science.gov (United States)

Wei-Ning Bai; Peng-Cheng Yan; Bo-Wen Zhang; Keith E. Woeste; Kui Lin; Da-Yong. Zhang

2018-01-01

Whether species demography and diversification are driven primarily by extrinsic environmental changes such as climatic oscillations in the Quaternary or by intrinsic biological interactions like coevolution between antagonists is a matter of active debate. In fact, their relative importance can be assessed by tracking past population fluctuations over considerable...

Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among-population demographic responses to climatic variation

Science.gov (United States)

Amburgey, Staci M.; Miller, David A. W.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Rittenhouse, Tracy A. G.; Benard, Michael F.; Richardson, Jonathan L.; Urban, Mark C.; Hughson, Ward; Brand, Adrianne B,; Davis, Christopher J.; Hardin, Carmen R.; Paton, Peter W. C.; Raithel, Christopher J.; Relyea, Rick A.; Scott, A. Floyd; Skelly, David K.; Skidds, Dennis E.; Smith, Charles K.; Werner, Earl E.

2018-01-01

Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long-term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long-term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species-interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the

Conservation biology for suites of species: Demographic modeling for Pacific island kingfishers

Science.gov (United States)

Kesler, D.C.; Haig, S.M.

2007-01-01

Conservation practitioners frequently extrapolate data from single-species investigations when managing critically endangered populations. However, few researchers initiate work with the intent of making findings useful to conservation efforts for other species. We presented and explored the concept of conducting conservation-oriented research for suites of geographically separated populations with similar natural histories, resource needs, and extinction threats. An example was provided in the form of an investigation into the population demography of endangered Micronesian kingfishers (Todiramphus cinnamominus). We provided the first demographic parameter estimates for any of the 12 endangered Pacific Todiramphus species, and used results to develop a population projection matrix model for management throughout the insular Pacific. Further, we used the model for elasticity and simulation analyses with demographic values that randomly varied across ranges that might characterize congener populations. Results from elasticity and simulation analyses indicated that changes in breeding adult survival exerted the greatest magnitude of influence on population dynamics. However, changes in nestling survival were more consistently correlated with population dynamics as demographic rates were randomly altered. We concluded that conservation practitioners working with endangered Pacific kingfishers should primarily focus efforts on factors affecting nestling and breeder survival, and secondarily address fledgling juveniles and helpers. Further, we described how the generalized base model might be changed to focus on individual populations and discussed the potential application of multi-species models to other conservation situations. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Public Pension Reform, Demographics, and Inequality

OpenAIRE

von Weizsäcker, Robert K

1994-01-01

Starting from a simple, descriptive model of individual income, an explicit link between the age composition of a population and the personal distribution of incomes is established. Demographic effects on income inequality are derived. Next, a pay-as-you-go financed state pension system is introduced. The resulting government budget constraint entails interrelations between fiscal and demographic variables, causing an additional, indirect demographic impact on the distribution. This is shown ...

Differential contribution of demographic rate synchrony to population synchrony in barn swallows.

Science.gov (United States)

Schaub, Michael; von Hirschheydt, Johann; Grüebler, Martin U

2015-11-01

Populations of many species show temporally synchronous dynamics over some range, mostly caused by spatial autocorrelation of the environment that affects demographic rates. Synchronous fluctuation of a demographic rate is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for population synchrony because population growth is differentially sensitive to variation in demographic rates. Little is known about the relative effects of demographic rates to population synchrony, because it is rare that all demographic rates from several populations are known. We develop a hierarchical integrated population model with which all relevant demographic rates from all study populations can be estimated and apply it to demographic data of barn swallows Hirundo rustica from nine sites that were between 19 and 224 km apart from each other. We decompose the variation of the population growth and of the demographic rates (apparent survival, components of productivity, immigration) into global and local temporal components using random effects which allowed the estimation of synchrony of these rates. The barn swallow populations fluctuated synchronously, but less so than most demographic rates. The highest synchrony showed the probability of double brooding, while fledging success was highly asynchronous. Apparent survival, immigration and total productivity achieved intermediate levels of synchrony. The growth of all populations was most sensitive to changes in immigration and adult apparent survival, and both of them contributed to the observed temporal variation of population growth rates. Using a simulation model, we show that immigration and apparent survival of juveniles and adults were able to induce population synchrony, but not components of local productivity due to their low population growth rate sensitivity. Immigrants are mostly first-time breeders, and consequently, their number depends on the productivity of neighbouring populations. Since total productivity was synchronized

Special Demographic Zone in Poland - in Search for the Gist of the Phenomenon

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Katarzyna Gerejczyk

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Aim/purpose - The objective of this paper is to identify the gist of the Special Demographic Zone phenomenon by analyzing the changes in the demographic structure of the EU population at country and regional level. Design/methodology/approach - We have applied the Boolean keyword and subject term searches of scholarly articles published in EBSCO and EMERALD databases, as well as in Google Scholar, between 2006 and 2016, inclusive. The key words used in the analysis were: Special Demographic Zone and Special Demographic Zones. This systematic literature review enabled us to identify 15 scientific articles connected directly with the topic in question. Findings - We found that there are 3 strategies employed by the local and regional self-governments to tackle the demographic challenges. We present them as a 3A model, representing strategies: to acknowledge, to adapt and to (counter act. We perceive the Special Demographic Zone, defined as a policy tool, as a specific case of an act strategy. Research implications/limitations - The main implication of the research is that there are already tools and mechanism ready to be utilized by the self-governments in order to tackle demographic challenges, which contribute to the local and regional sustainable development. The recommendation for local authorities is to determine which policy direction (as presented in the 3A model should be embarked on in a given territory in order to maximize the sustainable effect of undertaken actions. Originality/value/contribution - The originality of this work lies in the development of a theoretical 3A model of self-government's policy reactions to the encountered demographic challenges and in the conceptualization of a Special Demographic Zone as a special case of an act policy strategy within the broad framework of regional socioeconomic policy. Furthermore, the article draws on up-to-date statistical data.

Altering plasma sodium concentration rapidly changes blood pressure during haemodialysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Suckling, Rebecca J; Swift, Pauline A; He, Feng J; Markandu, Nirmala D; MacGregor, Graham A

2013-08-01

Plasma sodium is increased following each meal containing salt. There is an increasing interest in the effects of plasma sodium concentration, and it has been suggested that it may have direct effects on blood pressure (BP) and possibly influences endothelial function. Experimental increases of plasma sodium concentration rapidly raise BP even when extracellular volume falls. Ten patients with end-stage renal failure established on haemodialysis were studied during the first 2 h of dialysis without fluid removal during this period. They were randomized to receive haemodialysis with (i) dialysate sodium concentration prescribed to 135 mmol/L and (ii) 145 mmol/L in random order in a prospective, single-blinded crossover study. BP measurements and blood samples were taken every 30 min. Pre-dialysis sitting BP was 137/76 ± 7/3 mmHg. Lower dialysate sodium concentration (135 mmol/L) reduced plasma sodium concentration [139.49 ± 0.67 to 135.94 ± 0.52 mmol/L (P area under the curve (AUC) 15823.50 ± 777.15 (mmHg)min] compared with 145 mmol/L [AUC 17018.20 ± 1102.17 (mmHg)min], mean difference 1194.70 ± 488.41 (mmHg)min, P < 0.05. There was a significant positive relationship between change in plasma sodium concentration and change in systolic BP. This direct relationship suggests that a fall of 1 mmol/L in plasma sodium concentration would be associated with a 1.7 mmHg reduction in systolic BP (P < 0.05). The potential mechanism for the increase in BP seen with salt intake may be through small but significant changes in plasma sodium concentration.

Rapid socio-cultural change and health in the Arctic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjerregaard, P

2001-01-01

The colonization of the circumpolar peoples has had a profound influence on their health. History tells about devastating epidemics and the introduction of alcohol. The last 50 years have witnessed an unprecedented societal development in Greenland and a rapid epidemiological transition. Physical...... health and survival have improved but at the expense of mental health. The incidence of tuberculosis and the infant mortality rate have decreased because of improved socioeconomic conditions and health care. Mental health has deteriorated parallel to the rapid modernization of Greenlandic society...

Labour market for youth in Romania – a demographic and qualitative approach of their employability

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Silvia Pisică

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The paper analyzes the implications of demographic developments on the labour market in terms of potential labour from structural and professional perspectives. The aspects of the youth demographic and educational potential for labour market, of the national policies potential for new job creation and of the opportunities of alternative free movement of workers are presented. The paper emphasizes positive and negative labour market pressures as derived from the demographic structure (including ethnicity, skills and competences, and educational attainment. The influences factors on qualitative youth employability in Romania are also highlighted. Some empirical analyses of the working age population in terms of demographic factors, as well as its demographic forecast are presented. Statistical software used for this analysis is the R Project, along with specific packages forecasting analysis. Final part of the paper is focused on some specific recommendations for policy instruments and measures to support youth employability on the national labor market based on the changed typology of the youth supply on labour market.

Rapid response to intensive treatment for bulimia nervosa and purging disorder: A randomized controlled trial of a CBT intervention to facilitate early behavior change.

Science.gov (United States)

MacDonald, Danielle E; McFarlane, Traci L; Dionne, Michelle M; David, Lauren; Olmsted, Marion P

2017-09-01

Rapid response to cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) for eating disorders (i.e., rapid and substantial change to key eating disorder behaviors in the initial weeks of treatment) robustly predicts good outcome at end-of-treatment and in follow up. The objective of this study was to determine whether rapid response to day hospital (DH) eating disorder treatment could be facilitated using a brief adjunctive CBT intervention focused on early change. 44 women (average age 27.3 [8.4]; 75% White, 6.3% Black, 6.9% Asian) were randomly assigned to 1 of 2 4-session adjunctive interventions: CBT focused on early change, or motivational interviewing (MI). DH was administered as usual. Outcomes included binge/purge frequency, Eating Disorder Examination-Questionnaire and Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale. Intent-to-treat analyses were used. The CBT group had a higher rate of rapid response (95.7%) compared to MI (71.4%; p = .04, V = .33). Those who received CBT also had fewer binge/purge episodes (p = .02) in the first 4 weeks of DH. By end-of-DH, CBT participants made greater improvements on overvaluation of weight and shape (p = .008), and emotion regulation (ps .05). The results of this study demonstrate that rapid response can be clinically facilitated using a CBT intervention that explicitly encourages early change. This provides the foundation for future research investigating whether enhancing rates of rapid response using such an intervention results in improved longer term outcomes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Monitoring Forest Change in Landscapes Under-Going Rapid Energy Development: Challenges and New Perspectives

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Paul D. Pickell

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The accelerated development of energy resources around the world has substantially increased forest change related to oil and gas activities. In some cases, oil and gas activities are the primary catalyst of land-use change in forested landscapes. We discuss the challenges associated with characterizing ecological change related to energy resource development using North America as an exemplar. We synthesize the major impacts of energy development to forested ecosystems and offer new perspectives on how to detect and monitor anthropogenic disturbance during the Anthropocene. The disturbance of North American forests for energy development has resulted in persistent linear corridors, suppression of historical disturbance regimes, novel ecosystems, and the eradication of ecological memory. Characterizing anthropogenic disturbances using conventional patch-based disturbance measures will tend to underestimate the ecological impacts of energy development. Suitable indicators of anthropogenic impacts in forests should be derived from the integration of multi-scalar Earth observations. Relating these indicators to ecosystem condition will be a capstone in the progress toward monitoring forest change in landscapes undergoing rapid energy development.

Chiropractors in Finland – a demographic survey

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Malmqvist Stefan

2008-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Finnish chiropractic profession is young and not fully accepted by Finnish healthcare authorities. The demographic profile and style of practice has not been described to date. However, as the profession seems to be under rapid development, it would be of interest to stakeholders, both chiropractic and political, to obtain a baseline description of this profession with a view to the development of future goals and strategies for the profession. The purpose of this study was to describe the chiropractic profession in Finland in relation to its demographic background, the demographics of their clinics, practice patterns, interactions with other health care practitioners and some of the professions' plans for the future. Methods A structured questionnaire survey was conducted in 2005, in which all 50 members of the Finnish Chiropractic Union were invited to participate. Results In all, 44 questionnaires were returned (response rate 88%. Eighty percent of the respondents were men, and 77% were aged 30 to 44 years old, most of whom graduated after 1990 with either a university-based bachelors' or masters' degree in chiropractic. Solo practice was their main practice pattern. The vast majority described their scope of practice to be based on a musculoskeletal approach, using the Diversified Technique, performing Soft Tissue Therapy and about two-thirds also used an Activator Instrument (mechanical adjusting instrument. The mean number of patient visits reported to have been seen weekly was 59 of which nine were new patients. Most practitioners found this number of patients satisfactory. At the initial consultation, 80% of respondents spent 30–45 minutes with their patients, 75% spent 20–30 minutes with "new old" patients and on subsequent visits 80% of respondents spent 15–30 minutes. Interactions with other health care professions were reasonably good and most of chiropractors intended to remain within the profession

Correlation of demographic-economic evolutions in Romania after the 2008 economic crisis

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Litra, A. V.

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The paper aims to clarify the extent to which economic developments after 2008, largely due to the global economic crisis, have had an impact on demographic indicators in Romania. From the correlation analysis between the series of economic and demographic data (with a delay of one year, concluded that unemployment strongly influence live births and total fertility rate (especially for first-born, and in a medium measure the natural population change, and GDP is strongly correlated with the natural growth of the population, and medium correlated with the number of live births, total fertility rate and the number of marriages.

Phase field modeling of rapid crystallization in the phase-change material AIST

Science.gov (United States)

Tabatabaei, Fatemeh; Boussinot, Guillaume; Spatschek, Robert; Brener, Efim A.; Apel, Markus

2017-07-01

We carry out phase field modeling as a continuum simulation technique in order to study rapid crystallization processes in the phase-change material AIST (Ag4In3Sb67Te26). In particular, we simulate the spatio-temporal evolution of the crystallization of a molten area of the phase-change material embedded in a layer stack. The simulation model is adapted to the experimental conditions used for recent measurements of crystallization rates by a laser pulse technique. Simulations are performed for substrate temperatures close to the melting temperature of AIST down to low temperatures when an amorphous state is involved. The design of the phase field model using the thin interface limit allows us to retrieve the two limiting regimes of interface controlled (low temperatures) and thermal transport controlled (high temperatures) dynamics. Our simulations show that, generically, the crystallization velocity presents a maximum in the intermediate regime where both the interface mobility and the thermal transport, through the molten area as well as through the layer stack, are important. Simulations reveal the complex interplay of all different contributions. This suggests that the maximum switching velocity depends not only on material properties but also on the precise design of the thin film structure into which the phase-change material is embedded.

Measuring Land Change in Coastal Zone around a Rapidly Urbanized Bay

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Faming Huang

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Urban development is a major cause for eco-degradation in many coastal regions. Understanding urbanization dynamics and underlying driving factors is crucial for urban planning and management. Land-use dynamic degree indices and intensity analysis were used to measure land changes occurred in 1990, 2002, 2009, and 2017 in the coastal zone around Quanzhou bay, which is a rapidly urbanized bay in Southeast China. The comprehensive land-use dynamic degree and interval level intensity analysis both revealed that land change was accelerating across the three time intervals in a three-kilometer-wide zone along the coastal line (zone A, while land change was fastest during the second time interval 2002–2009 in a separate terrestrial area within coastal zone (zone B. Driven by urbanization, built-up gains and cropland losses were active for all time intervals in both zones. Mudflat losses were active except in the first time interval in zone A due to the intensive sea reclamation. The gain of mangrove was active while the loss of mangrove is dormant for all three intervals in zone A. Transition level analysis further revealed the similarities and differences in processes within patterns of land changes for both zones. The transition from cropland to built-up was systematically targeted and stationary while the transition from woodland to built-up was systematically avoiding transition in both zones. Built-up tended to target aquaculture for the second and third time intervals in zone A but avoid Aquaculture for all intervals in zone B. Land change in zone A was more significant than that in zone B during the second and third time intervals at three-level intensity. The application of intensity analysis can enhance our understanding of the patterns and processes in land changes and suitable land development plans in the Quanzhou bay area. This type of investigation is useful to provide information for developing sound land use policy to achieve urban

Measuring Land Change in Coastal Zone around a Rapidly Urbanized Bay.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Faming; Huang, Boqiang; Huang, Jinliang; Li, Shenghui

2018-05-23

Urban development is a major cause for eco-degradation in many coastal regions. Understanding urbanization dynamics and underlying driving factors is crucial for urban planning and management. Land-use dynamic degree indices and intensity analysis were used to measure land changes occurred in 1990, 2002, 2009, and 2017 in the coastal zone around Quanzhou bay, which is a rapidly urbanized bay in Southeast China. The comprehensive land-use dynamic degree and interval level intensity analysis both revealed that land change was accelerating across the three time intervals in a three-kilometer-wide zone along the coastal line (zone A), while land change was fastest during the second time interval 2002⁻2009 in a separate terrestrial area within coastal zone (zone B). Driven by urbanization, built-up gains and cropland losses were active for all time intervals in both zones. Mudflat losses were active except in the first time interval in zone A due to the intensive sea reclamation. The gain of mangrove was active while the loss of mangrove is dormant for all three intervals in zone A. Transition level analysis further revealed the similarities and differences in processes within patterns of land changes for both zones. The transition from cropland to built-up was systematically targeted and stationary while the transition from woodland to built-up was systematically avoiding transition in both zones. Built-up tended to target aquaculture for the second and third time intervals in zone A but avoid Aquaculture for all intervals in zone B. Land change in zone A was more significant than that in zone B during the second and third time intervals at three-level intensity. The application of intensity analysis can enhance our understanding of the patterns and processes in land changes and suitable land development plans in the Quanzhou bay area. This type of investigation is useful to provide information for developing sound land use policy to achieve urban sustainability in

Demographic crisis and recovery: a case study of the Xavante of Pimentel Barbosa.

Science.gov (United States)

Flowers, N

1994-03-01

This case study of the Xavante of Pimentel Barbosa is an example of an Amazonian Indian group that, when exposed to White society, experienced the common history of diseases and social disruption, and then eventually, recovered from the demographic shock, increased fertility, and reduced mortality. Early contact for the Xavante was during the early 18th century in Goias state, Brazil; by the end of the 19th century the Xavante had migrated west into Mato Grosso in isolation. Brazilian government interests (1940s) and a research expeditionary group (1962) resulted in health posts and extensive genetic, epidemiologic, and demographic studies. The results showed good physical and nutritional status, but stress from epidemic disease and social disruption. Conditions had improved by 1976, and the battle was with encroaching ranchers. Strong indian political action led to the securing of boundaries within the Pimentel Barbosa reservation by 1977. The population doubled from 249 in 1977 to 411 in 1988, and increased to 3 villages. There was evidence of a return to more traditional practices. Data collection for this analysis occurred during 1976-77 and 1988 and 1990. Results were provided for recent demographic change, recent births and deaths, factors affecting fertility, fertility change, parity and infant mortality, life expectancy changes, infanticide, population growth, marriage patterns, and health changes. Fertility histories were collected from 71 women in 1971 and 109 women in 1990. Difficulties were encountered due to Xavante differences in enumeration of children. In the comparison of the surveys in 1977 and 1990, there was close correspondence of reported births, and discrepancies of 4-9 births and in age at death. The difficulties encountered were attributed to problems with interpreters. The demographic analysis showed evidence of introduced diseases, which increased infant mortality and threatened population replacement, followed by decreased infant

[Doctoral thesis: Demographic growth and economic and social development in Mali].

Science.gov (United States)

Dabo, K

1999-12-01

A doctoral thesis is described analyzing the relationships between demographic growth and economic and social development in Mali. The hypothesis is stated that demographic growth impedes economic development and any improvement in populations¿ standards of living. The hypothesis was verified using data for the period from 1960 to the present. Over that period, Mali conducted two general population censuses in 1976 and 1987, as well as several demographic research studies. The thesis is comprised of 4 parts, of which the first generally describes Mali. The second part analyzes the relationship between population growth and economic and social development in Mali. Study results are presented, followed by an analysis of the effects of economic and social development upon population growth in Mali through factors such as urbanization, education level, literacy, income, employment, occupation, gross domestic or gross national product by inhabitant, infant mortality rate, life expectancy at birth, contraceptive practice, fertility opinions and desires, women¿s status, and migration in Mali. Analysis indicates that Mali has not completely begun its demographic transition, but that traditional pronatalist behaviors are changing. Population policies and programs are explored in the third part of the thesis, followed by the fourth part which focuses upon methodological questions.

Spatial demographic models to inform conservation planning of golden eagles in renewable energy landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Wiens, J. David; Schumaker, Nathan H.; Inman, Richard D.; Esque, Todd C.; Longshore, Kathleen M.; Nussear, Kenneth E

2017-01-01

Spatial demographic models can help guide monitoring and management activities targeting at-risk species, even in cases where baseline data are lacking. Here, we provide an example of how site-specific changes in land use and anthropogenic stressors can be incorporated into a spatial demographic model to investigate effects on population dynamics of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). Our study focused on a population of Golden Eagles exposed to risks associated with rapid increases in renewable energy development in southern California, U.S.A. We developed a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model that integrated empirical data on demography of Golden Eagles with spatial data on the arrangement of nesting habitats, prey resources, and planned renewable energy development sites. Our model permitted simulated eagles of different stage-classes to disperse, establish home ranges, acquire prey resources, prospect for breeding sites, and reproduce. The distribution of nesting habitats, prey resources, and threats within each individual's home range influenced movement, reproduction, and survival. We used our model to explore potential effects of alternative disturbance scenarios, and proposed conservation strategies, on the future distribution and abundance of Golden Eagles in the study region. Results from our simulations suggest that probable increases in mortality associated with renewable energy infrastructure (e.g., collisions with wind turbines and vehicles, electrocution on power poles) could have negative consequences for population trajectories, but that site-specific conservation actions could reduce the magnitude of negative effects. Our study demonstrates the use of a flexible and expandable modeling framework to incorporate spatially dependent processes when determining relative effects of proposed management options to Golden Eagles and their habitats.

Demographics and diaspora, gender and genealogy: anthropological notes on Greek population policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Paxson, H

1997-01-01

Since World War II, Greece's birth rate has fallen into a worsening decline. With the steady emigration of Greeks throughout the century to North America, Australia, and Germany, Greece has experienced one of the most rapid population declines in Europe. In 1991, the PASOK government convened a special Parliamentary Commission to study the demographic problem and develop recommendations for its resolution. Released in 1993, and comparing Greece's depressed population growth rates with the markedly higher ones of Albania and Turkey, the report argues that the demographic problem is one of national survival because a decline in the population undermines the territorial integrity and national independence of the country. At least half of all pregnancies in Greece end in abortion, and the report attributes 40% of the declining population growth rate to women who have repeat abortions. To confront the population dilemma, Greek officials are downplaying the diaspora and encouraging women at home to produce more babies. Maternal pensions forwarded by the state as family and population policies are being criticized by Athenian women as a means of professionalizing motherhood and perpetuating a limited vision of female adulthood. The author explores why the declining birth rate is considered to be such a problem in Greece, even though the other countries of Europe are also experiencing birth rate declines; why and how women are blamed for the demographic situation; and why the state, despite its vehement rhetoric, has failed to implement a family policy capable of boosting fertility.

The Demographic Situation in the Northern Economic Region of the Republic of Moldova

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SERGIU BACIU

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The demographic situation within the Northern Economic Region is worse than the national average. This fact is determined by the decrease of the birth rate values, the increase of the mortality values and the negative natural and migration growth. They also lead to a change of the rate between age groups, in favour of the elderly. In order to diminish such a situation, urgent measures should be taken (policies for economic increase and income increase at local, department and regional level, to stop the deep demographic crisis of the region.

Estimating demographic contributions to effective population size in an age-structured wild population experiencing environmental and demographic stochasticity.

Science.gov (United States)

Trask, Amanda E; Bignal, Eric M; McCracken, Davy I; Piertney, Stuart B; Reid, Jane M

2017-09-01

A population's effective size (N e ) is a key parameter that shapes rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, thereby influencing evolutionary processes and population viability. However, estimating N e , and identifying key demographic mechanisms that underlie the N e to census population size (N) ratio, remains challenging, especially for small populations with overlapping generations and substantial environmental and demographic stochasticity and hence dynamic age-structure. A sophisticated demographic method of estimating N e /N, which uses Fisher's reproductive value to account for dynamic age-structure, has been formulated. However, this method requires detailed individual- and population-level data on sex- and age-specific reproduction and survival, and has rarely been implemented. Here, we use the reproductive value method and detailed demographic data to estimate N e /N for a small and apparently isolated red-billed chough (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax) population of high conservation concern. We additionally calculated two single-sample molecular genetic estimates of N e to corroborate the demographic estimate and examine evidence for unobserved immigration and gene flow. The demographic estimate of N e /N was 0.21, reflecting a high total demographic variance (σ2dg) of 0.71. Females and males made similar overall contributions to σ2dg. However, contributions varied among sex-age classes, with greater contributions from 3 year-old females than males, but greater contributions from ≥5 year-old males than females. The demographic estimate of N e was ~30, suggesting that rates of increase of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation per generation will be relatively high. Molecular genetic estimates of N e computed from linkage disequilibrium and approximate Bayesian computation were approximately 50 and 30, respectively, providing no evidence of substantial unobserved immigration which could bias demographic estimates of N e . Our analyses identify

A Community Patient Demographic System

OpenAIRE

Gabler, James M.; Simborg, Donald W.

1985-01-01

A Community Patient Demographic System is described. Its purpose is to link patient identification, demographic and insurance information among multiple organizations in a community or among multiple registration systems within the same organization. This function requires that there be a competent patient identification methodology and clear definition of local responsibilities for number assignment and database editing.

Demographic change and income tax revenue in Germany: a microsimulation approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Beznoska

2017-03-01

Full Text Available As a result of high net migration, both Germany’s overall population and its workforce potential are currently growing. However, within a few years this demographic trend will be reversed, leading to a decline in population as a whole and especially in the number of those gainfully employed. In this paper, we use a population projection to apply a static ageing approach to German micro data. Then, we simulate income tax revenue with a microsimulation model for the future population. In 20 years’ time the annual price-adjusted income tax loss is estimated to be equal to € 18 billion or almost 7 per cent. This fall in income tax revenue resulting from a shrinking and ageing society will place a huge strain on public finances in Germany, an effect further enhanced by the shift of the tax burden from pension contributions to pension benefits.

Household size and urban spatial change: end of an era?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Sinclair

2004-12-01

Full Text Available A dominant demographic trend of the last few decades has been the declining size of house-holds in Western industrialized countries. Following closely upon the Baby Boom, the development became a major topic of discussion for almost two decades. The basis for, and consequences of, these changes have been well covered in the demographic literature, but their spatial implications have received less attention. Yet the, phenomenon has had a pro-found spatial impact at every level of the urban system. Recent statistics indicate that house-hold size continues to decline, but does so at a rapidly decreasing rate. The present paper considers the spatial repercussions of this trend. More specifically, the paper has three aims. (1 The paper summarizes and puts into present-day perspective, a volume of research con-ducted a decade ago upon the spatial impact of declining household size upon the U.S. urban system (Sinclair, 1991. (2 Considers more recent demographic developments, ask-ing whether the impact of declining household size upon the urban system is declining or coming to a close, (3 Considers other demographic developments which might he taking the place of declining household size in driving the urban system. In sum, the paper at-tempts to answer the question. Is an era, which has signifycantly impacted the U.S. urban system, coming to a close?

Demographic and human dimension of international migration in Ukraine

OpenAIRE

Duhinets H. V.; Rielina I. Ie.

2015-01-01

Modern transformation of the economic system of this country led to structural changes in the social environment. Movement of population and human resources inside and outside the country increased. The growth of the scale of international migration processes, their mixed impact on the development of the countries, qualitative transformation of the specified processes determine the importance of the study of demographic and employment dimension of the international migration processes in Ukra...

Climatic conditions cause complex patterns of covariation between demographic traits in a long-lived raptor

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Herfindal, Ivar; van de Pol, Martijn; Nielsen, Jan Tøttrup; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Møller, Anders Pape

2015-01-01

1.Environmental variation can induce life history changes that can last over a large part of the lifetime of an organism. If multiple demographic traits are affected, expected changes in climate may influence environmental covariances among traits in a complex manner. Thus, examining the

Which transition comes first? Urban and demographic transitions in Belgium and Sweden

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philippe Bocquier

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Background: Several theories compete to explain the main drivers of urbanisation, past and present, in relation to both demographic transition and economic development. One hypothesis is that rural-to-urban migration is the driver of urbanisation; another is that urban mortality decline actually triggered urban transition. Objective: This paper reconsiders the relationship between demographic (vital migration and urban transitions by analysing the long-term contribution of natural and migratory movements to urban transition. The respective contributions of birth, death, and migration and their timing will indicate whether economic development, through labour force migration, or vital transition mainly determines urban transition. Methods: After examining the spatial dimension of the demographic transition theory, we use 19th and 20th century series on Sweden and Belgium to better identify the migration component of urban transition through the computation of growth difference between urban and rural areas, accounting for the often neglected reclassification effect. Results: In both Sweden and Belgium, migration is the direct or indirect (through reclassification engine of urban transition and its contribution precedes the onset of vital transition, while the vital transition has a secondary, unstable, and negative role in the urban transition. Conclusions: Changes in the economic sphere are reinstated as the underlying cause of population change, acting through the shift of human capital in space. Methodological consequences are then drawn for analysing vital and urban transitions in an increasingly interdependent world. Contribution: The paper contributes to the theoretical literature on urban and demographic transitions in relation to economic development. The proposed method evaluates migration contribution without having to measure it.

Demographic determinants of energy demand of households in Germany; Demografische Determinanten der Energienachfrage der Haushalte in Deutschland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Engel, Kerstin

2010-05-28

This thesis investigates in demographic determinants of energy demand of households in Germany, with focus on space heating and individual motor car traffic. Result of this thesis is a simulation model based on the approach of system dynamics, which is used to simulate two scenarios. The first scenario, called the reference scenario, is based on demographic data of the next decades, which is assumed to be realistic. The second alternative scenario runs without the probable demographic changes. By comparing the scenarios the role of demography in the range of energy demand is quantified. (orig.)

The AAVSO 2011 Demographic and Background Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Price, A.

2012-04-01

In 2011, the AAVSO conducted a survey of 615 people who are or were recently active in the organization. The survey included questions about their demographic background and variable star interests. Data are descriptively analyzed and compared with prior surveys. Results show an organization of very highly educated, largely male amateur and professional astronomers distributed across 108 countries. Participants tend to be loyal, with the average time of involvement in the AAVSO reported as 14 years. Most major demographic factors have not changed much over time. However, the average age of new members is increasing. Also, a significant portion of the respondents report being strictly active in a non-observing capacity, reflecting the growing mission of the organization. Motivations of participants are more aligned with scientific contribution than with that reported by other citizen science projects. This may help explain why a third of all respondents are an author or co-author of a paper in an astronomical journal. Finally, there is some evidence that participation in the AAVSO has a greater impact on the respondents' view of their role in astronomy compared to that expected through increasing amateur astronomy experience alone.

Observation of reversible, rapid changes in drug susceptibility of hypoxic tumor cells in a microfluidic device.

Science.gov (United States)

Germain, Todd; Ansari, Megan; Pappas, Dimitri

2016-09-14

Hypoxia is a major stimulus for increased drug resistance and for survival of tumor cells. Work from our group and others has shown that hypoxia increases resistance to anti-cancer compounds, radiation, and other damage-pathway cytotoxic agents. In this work we utilize a microfluidic culture system capable of rapid switching of local oxygen concentrations to determine changes in drug resistance in prostate cancer cells. We observed rapid adaptation to hypoxia, with drug resistance to 2 μM staurosporine established within 30 min of hypoxia. Annexin-V/Sytox Green apoptosis assays over 9 h showed 78.0% viability, compared to 84.5% viability in control cells (normoxic cells with no staurosporine). Normoxic cells exposed to the same staurosporine concentration had a viability of 48.6% after 9 h. Hypoxia adaptation was rapid and reversible, with Hypoxic cells treated with 20% oxygen for 30 min responding to staurosporine with 51.6% viability after drug treatment for 9 h. Induction of apoptosis through the receptor-mediated pathway, which bypasses anti-apoptosis mechanisms induced by hypoxia, resulted in 39.4 ± 7% cell viability. The rapid reversibility indicates co-treatment of oxygen with anti-cancer compounds may be a potential therapeutic target. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Experiences of Families Transmitting Values in a Rapidly Changing Society: Implications for Family Therapists.

Science.gov (United States)

Akyil, Yudum; Prouty, Anne; Blanchard, Amy; Lyness, Kevin

2016-06-01

Intergenerational value transmission affects parent-child relationships and necessitates constant negotiation in families. Families with adolescents from rapidly changing societies face unique challenges in balancing the traditional collectivistic family values that promote harmony with emerging values that promote autonomy. Using modern Turkey as an example of such a culture, the authors examine the transmission process in families that hold more traditional and collectivistic values than their adolescent children. Special consideration is given to generational and cultural differences in the autonomy and relatedness dimensions. © 2015 Family Process Institute.

Demographic transition and population ageing in India: Implications on the elderly of the future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shradha Mathur

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Ageing population of India will transform into the elderly in future. The issue of health of the elderly population in India has arrested the attention of health policy makers and the researchers, in the recent past. Demographic structure, quality of life, healthcare services and government planning have serious implications on the ageing population. The objective of the research article is to systematically and critically evaluate the impact of demographic transition, projected demographic indicators and changing population characteristics on the health status of the elderly persons living in India in the coming decades. Analysis and discussions are based on secondary data published by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare of the Government of India. The results indicate that India will be an ageing nation in the coming years and improvements in health, education and government planning are likely to enhance the life expectancy of the elderly, while the share of children will reduce, suggesting an increase in dependency of the older persons on the adult population. The article provides insights into workable solutions and suggests key recommendations to attain faster demographic dividend. India would be competing with the pressure of a dramatic demographic bulge in future.

Multiregional demographic projections in practice: a metropolitan example.

Science.gov (United States)

Congdon, P

1992-01-01

"This paper examines options for local and regional projections which reflect both demographic interdependencies with jobs and housing at this area scale, and the inapplicability of traditional demographic projection methods to population or areal subdivisions. This context for local demographic projections requires constraints (for example, to job and housing forecasts or to higher area totals), the use of proxy or explanatory indicators to predict demographic rates or totals, and parameterization of demographic schedules, to facilitate comparison across numerous localities and to set future assumptions about demographic components. The traditional framework of self-contained projection by deterministic cohort survival is therefore widened to include regio-scientific and stochastic modelling concepts. The framework for empirical analysis is London [England] and its boroughs." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND GER) excerpt

On the contribution of demographic change to aggregate poverty measures for the developing world

OpenAIRE

Ravallion, Martin

2005-01-01

Recent literature and new data help determine plausible bounds to some key demographic differences between the poor and non-poor in the developing world. The author estimates that selective mortality-whereby poorer people tend to have higher death rates-accounts for 10-30 percent of the developing world's trend rate of "$1 a day" poverty reduction in the 1990s. However, in a neighborhood of plausible estimates, differential fertility-whereby poorer people tend also to have higher birth rates-...

Implications of research staff demographics for psychological science.

Science.gov (United States)

Does, Serena; Ellemers, Naomi; Dovidio, John F; Norman, Jasmine B; Mentovich, Avital; van der Lee, Romy; Goff, Phillip Atiba

2018-03-01

Long-standing research traditions in psychology have established the fundamental impact of social categories, such as race and gender, on people's perceptions of themselves and others, as well as on the general human cognition and behavior. However, there is a general tendency to ignore research staff demographics (e.g., researchers' race and gender) in research development and research reports. Variation in research staff demographics can exert systematic and scientifically informative influences on results from psychological research. Consequently, research staff demographics need to be considered, studied, and/or reported, along with how these demographics were allowed to vary across participants or conditions (e.g., random assignment, matched with participant demographics, or included as a factor in the experimental design). In addition to providing an overview of multidisciplinary evidence of research staff demographics effects, we discuss how research staff demographics might influence research findings through (a) ingroup versus outgroup effects, (b) stereotype and (implicit) bias effects, and (c) priming and social tuning effects. Finally, an overview of recommended considerations is included (see the Appendix) to help illustrate how to systematically incorporate relevant research staff demographics in psychological science. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Increasing weather-related impacts on European population under climate and demographic change

Science.gov (United States)

Forzieri, Giovanni; Cescatti, Alessandro; Batista e Silva, Filipe; Kovats, Sari R.; Feyen, Luc

2017-04-01

Over the last three decades the overwhelming majority of disasters have been caused by weather-related events. The observed rise in weather-related disaster losses has been largely attributed to increased exposure and to a lesser degree to global warming. Recent studies suggest an intensification in the climatology of multiple weather extremes in Europe over the coming decades in view of climate change, while urbanization continues. In view of these pressures, understanding and quantifying the potential impacts of extreme weather events on future societies is imperative in order to identify where and to what extent their livelihoods will be at risk in the future, and develop timely and effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies. Here we show a comprehensive assessment of single- and multi-hazard impacts on the European population until the year 2100. For this purpose, we developed a novel methodology that quantifies the human impacts as a multiplicative function of hazard, exposure and population vulnerability. We focus on seven of the most impacting weather-related hazards - including heat and cold waves, wildfires, droughts, river and coastal floods and windstorms - and evaluated their spatial and temporal variations in intensity and frequency under a business-as-usual climate scenario. Long-term demographic dynamics were modelled to assess exposure developments under a corresponding middle-of-the-road scenario. Vulnerability of humans to weather extremes was appraised based on more than 2300 records of weather-related disasters. The integration of these elements provides a range of plausible estimates of extreme weather-related risks for future European generations. Expected impacts on population are quantified in terms of fatalities and number of people exposed. We find a staggering rise in fatalities from extreme weather events, with the projected death toll by the end of the century amounting to more than 50 times the present number of people

Television, disordered eating, and young women in Fiji: negotiating body image and identity during rapid social change.

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, Anne E

2004-12-01

Although the relationship between media exposure and risk behavior among youth is established at a population level, the specific psychological and social mechanisms mediating the adverse effects of media on youth remain poorly understood. This study reports on an investigation of the impact of the introduction of television to a rural community in Western Fiji on adolescent ethnic Fijian girls in a setting of rapid social and economic change. Narrative data were collected from 30 purposively selected ethnic Fijian secondary school girls via semi-structured, open-ended interviews. Interviews were conducted in 1998, 3 years after television was first broadcast to this region of Fiji. Narrative data were analyzed for content relating to response to television and mechanisms that mediate self and body image in Fijian adolescents. Data in this sample suggest that media imagery is used in both creative and destructive ways by adolescent Fijian girls to navigate opportunities and conflicts posed by the rapidly changing social environment. Study respondents indicated their explicit modeling of the perceived positive attributes of characters presented in television dramas, but also the beginnings of weight and body shape preoccupation, purging behavior to control weight, and body disparagement. Response to television appeared to be shaped by a desire for competitive social positioning during a period of rapid social transition. Understanding vulnerability to images and values imported with media will be critical to preventing disordered eating and, potentially, other youth risk behaviors in this population, as well as other populations at risk.

5 CFR 841.404 - Demographic factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Demographic factors. 841.404 Section 841.404 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT (CONTINUED) CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) FEDERAL EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT SYSTEM-GENERAL ADMINISTRATION Government Costs § 841.404 Demographic...

Effect of Attitudinal, Situational and Demographic Factors on Annoyance Due to Environmental Vibration and Noise from Construction of a Light Rapid Transit System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Wong-McSweeney

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to determine what non-exposure factors influence the relationship between vibration and noise exposure from the construction of a Light Rapid Transit (LRT system and the annoyance of nearby residents. Noise and vibration from construction sites are known to annoy residents, with annoyance increasing as a function of the magnitude of the vibration and noise. There is not a strong correlation between exposure and levels of annoyance suggesting that factors not directly related to the exposure may have an influence. A range of attitudinal, situational and demographic factors are investigated with the aim of understanding the wide variation in annoyance for a given vibration exposure. A face-to-face survey of residents (n = 350 near three sites of LRT construction was conducted, and responses were compared to semi-empirical estimates of the internal vibration within the buildings. It was found that annoyance responses due to vibration were strongly influenced by two attitudinal variables, concern about property damage and sensitivity to vibration. Age, ownership of the property and the visibility of the construction site were also important factors. Gender, time at home and expectation of future levels of vibration had much less influence. Due to the measurement methods used, it was not possible to separate out the effects of noise and vibration on annoyance; as such, this paper focusses on annoyance due to vibration exposure. This work concludes that for the most cost-effective reduction of the impact of construction vibration and noise on the annoyance felt by a community, policies should consider attitudinal factors.

Rapid Response Team activation for pediatric patients on the acute pain service.

Science.gov (United States)

Teets, Maxwell; Tumin, Dmitry; Walia, Hina; Stevens, Jenna; Wrona, Sharon; Martin, David; Bhalla, Tarun; Tobias, Joseph D

2017-11-01

Untreated pain or overly aggressive pain management may lead to adverse physiologic consequences and activation of the hospital's Rapid Response Team. This study is a quality improvement initiative that attempts to identify patient demographics and patterns associated with Rapid Response Team consultations for patients on the acute pain service. A retrospective review of all patients on the acute pain service from February 2011 until June 2015 was cross-referenced with inpatients requiring consultation from the Rapid Response Team. Two independent practitioners reviewed electronic medical records to determine which events were likely associated with pain management interventions. Over a 4-year period, 4872 patients were admitted to the acute pain service of whom 135 unique patients required Rapid Response Team consults. There were 159 unique Rapid Response Team activations among 6538 unique acute pain service consults. A subset of 27 pain management-related Rapid Response Team consultations was identified. The largest percentage of patients on the acute pain service were adolescents aged 12-17 (36%). Compared to this age group, the odds of Rapid Response Team activation were higher among infants Team consultations may help to identify patients at risk for clinical decompensation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Demographic attributes and knowledge acquisition among graduate-entry medical students.

Science.gov (United States)

Finucane, Paul; Flannery, Denise; McGrath, Deirdre; Saunders, Jean

2013-01-01

Recent changes to undergraduate (basic) medical education in Ireland have linked an expansion of student numbers with wide-ranging reforms. Medical schools have broadened access by admitting more mature students from diverse backgrounds and have increased their international student numbers. This has resulted in major changes to the demographic profile of students at Irish medical schools. To determine whether the demographic characteristics of students impact on their academic performance and specifically on their rate of knowledge acquisition. As a formative assessment exercise, we administered a progress test to all students twice each year during a 4 year graduate-entry medical programme. We compared scores over time between students from different age cohorts, of different gender, of different nationalities and from different academic backgrounds. In the 1143 tests taken by 285 students to date, there were no significant differences in the rate of knowledge acquisition between the various groups. Early in the course, students from a non-biological science background performed less well than others but outperformed their peers by the time of graduation. Neither age, gender, nationality nor academic background impacts on the rate of knowledge acquisition among graduate-entry medical students.

Demographic changes of the Visaginas town

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kavaliauskas, A.

1998-01-01

The youngest Lithuanian town surrounded by pine forest is situated at the shore of a picturesque lake of Visaginas. The level of radiation of the town and its suburbs doesn't prevail the standards due to the data given by the Lithuanian Department of Environmental Protection. A relatively small, hilly, green, full of lakes areas have all facilities for tourism and recreation. The town's birth is directly linked with the construction of the nuclear power plant. Great number of nuclear energy specialists came here with their families from the East. The specific character of the town determined the ethnic composition of its population. In 1994-1995 there were Russians (59%), Lithuanians (14%), Byelorussian s (11%), Poles (6%), other nationalities (10%). The number of the residents in Visaginas is stable now with a slight tendency of increasing on the number of women. In 1990 the population of Visaginas was 33192, the women comprised 566 more in number than the men, in 1997 of its 33508 people were 1172 more women than the men. Recent Lithuanian social-economic changes greatly influenced the number of inhabitants of the town. In 1987, 3567 new inhabitants arrived to Visaginas and 1588 moved out. The inhabitants who had arrived to Visaginas in 1987 -1996 were 5,5 times less than in 1987, and moved out 5,4 times less also. One half of the inhabitants who moved from Visaginas went abroad. It shows that the mechanic and social mobility of the town's population decreased too. From 1989 to 1996 the main factor in changing the population number was not the natural increase of it but its migration. Then the natural increase lowered 4,8 times. The economic situation of the town is complex and becoming worse. The town was built as a satellite of the power plant. When the construction of the third block was stopped, the building of many objects was not completed. Other industries didn't develop in Visaginas. Most unemployed are the inhabitants at the age of 19-49 (87,9%). The

Environmental impacts of rapid changes in water level; Milj#Latin Small Letter O With Stroke#konsekvenser av raske vannstandsendringer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harby, Atle [Sintef Energy, Trondheim (Norway); Arnekleiv, Jo [NTNU, Trondheim (Norway); Bogen, Jim [NVE, Oslo (Norway)

2012-07-01

Flexible operation and peak regulation of hydropower plants (hydropeaking) leads to rapid changes in water levels and water discharge. Due to an increasing share of intermittent energy sources as wind and solar energy in Norway and Europe, we expect to see more flexible operation and increased use of hydropeaking in Norwegian hydropower plants. Environmental impacts will vary depending on local conditions and hydro operations. Some of the environmental impacts of hydropeaking and rapid changes in water level and discharge are well known, where stranding of fish has been most studied, both nationally and internationally. However, there are large knowledge gaps, and there are very few studies of rivers, lakes, reservoirs and fjords downstream of peaking hydropower plants. This report summarizes the knowledge status and presents results from three Norwegian studies with different physical conditions and hydro operations. Not all previous studies have given clear and unambiguous results, but generally we can summarize as follows: Peaking hydropower plants discharging into rivers have considerable higher potential to cause negative effects on physical and biological conditions compared to hydropower plants discharging into reservoirs, lakes and fjords. If it is technically possible to implement slow changes in hydropower production, it will reduce the negative effects on the entire ecosystem. Reducing the rate of change in water level to less than 13 cm per hour gives a significantly reduced risk for stranding of salmonid fish. As far as we know there are not similarly definite guidelines for increasing water level, or for other fish species than salmonids. Fish are more vulnerable to rapid changes in water level during winter than other seasons in Norway due to the fact that low water temperatures directly and indirectly lead to lower mobility in fish. Hydropeaking and flexible operation not leading to significant changes in wetted area will generally not have greater

Demographics in Astronomy and Astrophysics

Science.gov (United States)

Ulvestad, James S.

2011-05-01

Astronomy has been undergoing a significant demographic shift over the last several decades, as shown by data presented in the 2000 National Research Council (NRC) report "Federal Funding of Astronomical Research," and the 2010 NRC report, "New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics." For example, the number of advertised postdoctoral positions in astronomy has increased much more rapldly than the number of faculty positions, contributing to a holding pattern of early-career astronomers in multiple postdoctoral positions. This talk will summarize some of the current demographic trends in astronomy, including information about gender and ethnic diversity, and describe some of the possible implications for the future. I thank the members of the Astro2010 Demographics Study Group, as well as numerous white-paper contributors to Astro2010, for providing data and analyses.

Comparative demography of an epiphytic lichen: support for general life history patterns and solutions to common problems in demographic parameter estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Shriver, Robert K; Cutler, Kerry; Doak, Daniel F

2012-09-01

Lichens are major components in many terrestrial ecosystems, yet their population ecology is at best only poorly understood. Few studies have fully quantified the life history or demographic patterns of any lichen, with particularly little attention to epiphytic species. We conducted a 6-year demographic study of Vulpicida pinastri, an epiphytic foliose lichen, in south-central Alaska. After testing multiple size-structured functions to describe patterns in each V. pinastri demographic rate, we used the resulting estimates to construct a stochastic demographic model for the species. This model development led us to propose solutions to two general problems in construction of demographic models for many taxa: how to simply but accurately characterize highly skewed growth rates, and how to estimate recruitment rates that are exceptionally difficult to directly observe. Our results show that V. pinastri has rapid and variable growth and, for small individuals, low and variable survival, but that these traits are coupled with considerable longevity (e.g., >50 years mean future life span for a 4-cm(2) thallus) and little deviation of the stochastic population growth rate from the deterministic expectation. Comparisons of the demographic patterns we found with those of other lichen studies suggest that their relatively simple architecture may allow clearer generalities about growth patterns for lichens than for other taxa, and that the expected pattern of faster growth rates for epiphytic species is substantiated.

Is there a Demographic Time-bomb?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Greve, Bent

2006-01-01

The article discuss whether the demographic transition in Europe will have any impact on the future of the European welfare states......The article discuss whether the demographic transition in Europe will have any impact on the future of the European welfare states...

Fibrocartilaginous embolic myelopathy: demographics, clinical presentation, and functional outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Brittany J; Batterson, Anna M; Luetmer, Marianne T; Reeves, Ronald K

2018-05-25

Retrospective cohort study. To describe the demographics, clinical presentation, and functional outcomes of fibrocartilaginous embolic myelopathy (FCEM). Academic inpatient rehabilitation unit in the midwestern United States. We retrospectively searched our database to identify patients admitted between January 1, 1995 and March 31, 2016, with a high probability of FCEM. Demographic, clinical, and functional outcome measures, including Functional Independence Measure (FIM) information was obtained by chart review. We identified 31 patients with findings suggestive of FCEM (52% male), which was 2% of the nontraumatic spinal cord injury population admitted to inpatient rehabilitation. The age distribution was bimodal, with peaks in the second and sixth-to-seventh decades. The most common clinical presentation was acute pain and rapid progression of neurologic deficits consistent with a vascular myelopathy. Only three patients (10%) had FCEM documented as a diagnostic possibility. Most patients had paraplegia and neurologically incomplete injuries and were discharged to home. Nearly half of the patients required no assistive device for bladder management at discharge, but most were discharged with medications for bowel management. Median FIM walking locomotion score for all patients was 5, but most patients were discharged using a wheelchair for primary mobility. Median motor FIM subscale score was 36 at admission and 69 at discharge, with a median motor efficiency of 1.41. FCEM may be underdiagnosed and should be considered in those with the appropriate clinical presentation, because their functional outcomes may be more favorable than those with other causes of spinal cord infarction.

Linking temporal changes in the demographic structure and individual growth to the decline in the population of a tropical fish

Science.gov (United States)

Sirot, Charlotte; Darnaude, Audrey M.; Guilhaumon, François; Ramos-Miranda, Julia; Flores-Hernandez, Domingo; Panfili, Jacques

2015-11-01

The exceptional biodiversity and productivity of tropical coastal lagoons can only be preserved by identifying the causes for the decline in the populations living in these vulnerable ecosystems. The Terminos lagoon in Mexico provided an opportunity for studying this issue as some of its fish populations, in particular the Silver Perch (Bairdiella chrysoura), have declined significantly since the 1980s. Fish sampling campaigns carried out over the whole lagoon area in 1979-81 and again in 2006-2011 revealed the mechanisms which may have been responsible for this decline. Based on biometrical data for 295 juveniles and adults from the two periods and on somatic growth derived from 173 otoliths, a study of the temporal changes in the demographic structure and life history traits (individual growth and body condition) made it possible to distinguish the causes of the decline in the B. chrysoura population. Growth models for the lagoon in 1980-1981 and 2006-2011 showed no significant change in the growth parameters of the population over the last 30 years with a logistic model giving an accurate estimate (R2 = 0.66) of the size-at-age for both periods. The decline in the B. chrysoura population could not be explained by an overall decrease in individual size and condition in the lagoon, the average standard length (SL) and Fulton index (FI) having increased slightly since 1980-1981 (4.6 mm and 0.02 for juveniles and 5.42 mm and 0.07 for adults). However, the size structure of the population in the lagoon has changed, with a significant shift in the size distribution of juveniles with a marked reduction in the proportion of juveniles ≤ 60 mm in the captures (90.9% fewer than in 1980-1981). As the otolith growth rate of fish during the first 4 months also decreased significantly between the two sampling periods (-15%), it is suggested that the main reason for the decline in the abundance and biomass of B. chrysoura within this system may be that its habitats are less

Cultural innovations and demographic change.

Science.gov (United States)

Richerson, Peter J; Boyd, Robert; Bettinger, Robert L

2009-04-01

Demography plays a large role in cultural evolution through its effects on the effective rate of innovation. If we assume that useful inventions are rare, then small isolated societies will have low rates of invention. In small populations, complex technology will tend to be lost as a result of random loss or incomplete transmission (the Tasmanian effect). Large populations have more inventors and are more resistant to loss by chance. If human populations can grow freely, then a population-technology-population positive feedback should occur such that human societies reach a stable growth path on which the rate of growth of technology is limited by the rate of invention. This scenario fits the Holocene to a first approximation, but the late Pleistocene is a great puzzle. Large-brained hominins existed in Africa and west Eurasia for perhaps 150,000 years with, at best, slow rates of technical innovation. The most sophisticated societies of the last glacial period appear after 50,000 years ago and were apparently restricted to west and north-central Eurasia and North Africa. These patterns have no simple, commonly accepted explanation. We argue that increased high-frequency climate change around 70,000-50,000 years ago may have tipped the balance between humans and their competitor-predators, such as lions and wolves, in favor of humans. At the same time, technically sophisticated hunters would tend to overharvest their prey. Perhaps the ephemeral appearance of complex tools and symbolic artifacts in Africa after 100,000 years ago resulted from hunting inventions that allowed human populations to expand temporarily before prey overexploitation led to human population and technology collapse. Sustained human populations of moderate size using distinctively advanced Upper Paleolithic artifacts may have existed in west Eurasia because cold, continental northeastern Eurasia-Beringia acted as a protected reserve for prey populations.

E-cigarette Use Related to Demographic Factors in Hawai'i.

Science.gov (United States)

Seto, Jason C; Davis, James W; Taira, Deborah A

2016-10-01

E-cigarette use is rapidly expanding in the United States and is projected to be a $3 billion industry by the end of this year. E-cigarette use in Hawai'i is significantly higher than national averages. The goal of this study was to examine the relationship in Hawai'i between demographic characteristics and several aspects of e-cigarette use including percentage of residents trying e-cigarettes, reasons for use, and perceived effects on health. Survey data were collected from a random sample of Hawai'i residents via the telephone in the summer of 2015, using methodology similar to that of the Hawai'i Health Survey. Chi-squared tests found e-cigarette use to be significantly associated with age ( P =.001), gender ( P =.03), ethnicity ( P e-cigarettes, 21% said their use of regular cigarettes did not change, 6% said they reduced use of regular cigarettes, and 20% said they completely stopped smoking regular cigarettes. Multivariable logistic regression results suggest Native Hawaiians (OR=29.1, P =.01) and Filipinos (OR=24.3, P =.01) were significantly more likely to report perceived improved health due to e-cigarette use compared to Caucasians. Given existing health disparities for Native Hawaiians and Filipinos, the fact that these groups are significantly more likely than other ethnic/racial groups to report that e-cigarettes improved their health bears notice and highlights the need for additional research in this area.

Temporal, spatial, and environmental influences on the demographics of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, Charles C.; Haroldson, Mark A.; White, Gary C.; Harris, Richard B.; Cherry, Steve; Keating, Kim A.; Moody, Dave; Servheen, Christopher

2006-01-01

During the past 2 decades, the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) has increased in numbers and expanded in range. Understanding temporal, environmental, and spatial variables responsible for this change is useful in evaluating what likely influenced grizzly bear demographics in the GYE and where future management efforts might benefit conservation and management. We used recent data from radio-marked bears to estimate reproduction (1983–2002) and survival (1983–2001); these we combined into models to evaluate demographic vigor (lambda [λ]). We explored the influence of an array of individual, temporal, and spatial covariates on demographic vigor.

Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alexander, Jake M; Chalmandrier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan

2018-01-01

Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind...... plant species' spread along elevational gradients, "establishment lags" following their arrival in recipient communities, and "extinction lags" of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic...... turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species' range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our...

The confounding effect of population structure on bayesian skyline plot inferences of demographic history

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heller, Rasmus; Chikhi, Lounes; Siegismund, Hans

2013-01-01

Many coalescent-based methods aiming to infer the demographic history of populations assume a single, isolated and panmictic population (i.e. a Wright-Fisher model). While this assumption may be reasonable under many conditions, several recent studies have shown that the results can be misleading...... when it is violated. Among the most widely applied demographic inference methods are Bayesian skyline plots (BSPs), which are used across a range of biological fields. Violations of the panmixia assumption are to be expected in many biological systems, but the consequences for skyline plot inferences...... the best scheme for inferring demographic change over a typical time scale. Analyses of data from a structured African buffalo population demonstrate how BSP results can be strengthened by simulations. We recommend that sample selection should be carefully considered in relation to population structure...

Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to ...

Science.gov (United States)

EPA announced the availability of the draft report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) for a 30-day public comment period. The ICLUS version 2 (v2) modeling tool furthered land change modeling by providing nationwide housing development scenarios up to 2100. ICLUS V2 includes updated population and land use data sets and addressing limitations identified in ICLUS v1 in both the migration and spatial allocation models. The companion user guide describes the development of ICLUS v2 and the updates that were made to the original data sets and the demographic and spatial allocation models. [2017 UPDATE] Get the latest version of ICLUS and stay up-to-date by signing up to the ICLUS mailing list. The GIS tool enables users to run SERGoM with the population projections developed for the ICLUS project and allows users to modify the spatial allocation housing density across the landscape.

Sensitivity analysis of effective population size to demographic parameters in house sparrow populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Stubberud, Marlene Waege; Myhre, Ane Marlene; Holand, Håkon; Kvalnes, Thomas; Ringsby, Thor Harald; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Jensen, Henrik

2017-05-01

The ratio between the effective and the census population size, Ne/N, is an important measure of the long-term viability and sustainability of a population. Understanding which demographic processes that affect Ne/N most will improve our understanding of how genetic drift and the probability of fixation of alleles is affected by demography. This knowledge may also be of vital importance in management of endangered populations and species. Here, we use data from 13 natural populations of house sparrow (Passer domesticus) in Norway to calculate the demographic parameters that determine Ne/N. Using the global variance-based Sobol' method for the sensitivity analyses, we found that Ne/N was most sensitive to demographic variance, especially among older individuals. Furthermore, the individual reproductive values (that determine the demographic variance) were most sensitive to variation in fecundity. Our results draw attention to the applicability of sensitivity analyses in population management and conservation. For population management aiming to reduce the loss of genetic variation, a sensitivity analysis may indicate the demographic parameters towards which resources should be focused. The result of such an analysis may depend on the life history and mating system of the population or species under consideration, because the vital rates and sex-age classes that Ne/N is most sensitive to may change accordingly. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Rapidly reversible redox transformation in nanophase manganese oxides at room temperature triggered by changes in hydration.

Science.gov (United States)

Birkner, Nancy; Navrotsky, Alexandra

2014-04-29

Chemisorption of water onto anhydrous nanophase manganese oxide surfaces promotes rapidly reversible redox phase changes as confirmed by calorimetry, X-ray diffraction, and titration for manganese average oxidation state. Surface reduction of bixbyite (Mn2O3) to hausmannite (Mn3O4) occurs in nanoparticles under conditions where no such reactions are seen or expected on grounds of bulk thermodynamics in coarse-grained materials. Additionally, transformation does not occur on nanosurfaces passivated by at least 2% coverage of what is likely an amorphous manganese oxide layer. The transformation is due to thermodynamic control arising from differences in surface energies of the two phases (Mn2O3 and Mn3O4) under wet and dry conditions. Such reversible and rapid transformation near room temperature may affect the behavior of manganese oxides in technological applications and in geologic and environmental settings.

Planetary Habitability and Rapid Environmental Change: The Biological Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Schulze-Makuch, D.; Fairen, A.; Irwin, L.

2012-12-01

Environmental conditions can change drastically and rapidly during the natural history of a planetary body. We have detailed evidence of these dramatic events from Venus, Earth, Mars, and Titan. Most of these occurrences seem to be triggered by astronomical events such as asteroid impacts or supernova explosions; others are triggered by the planet or moon itself (e.g., supervolcano eruptions). The associated question is always how these events affect the habitability of a planet, particularly the origin and presence of life. Under what conditions would such a drastic event be so catastrophic that it would prohibit the origin of life or be so devastating to existing organisms, that life would not be able to recover and be all but extinguished from a planet? Under what conditions would such an event be positive for the evolution of life, for example spurring life via mass extinctions and associated vacant habitats to the invention of new body plans and higher complexity? Here, we provide insights of what we can learn from the natural history of our own planet, which experienced many environmental disasters and abrupt climate changes, from the impact event that created the Moon to the extinction of the dinosaurs. We apply these insights to other planetary bodies and the question about the presence of life. One example is Mars, which underwent drastic environmental changes at the end of the Noachian period. Assuming that microbial life became established on Mars, could it have survived, perhaps by retreating to environmental niches? Life just starting out would have certainly been more vulnerable to extinction. But how far would it have to have evolved to be more resistant to potential extinction events? Would it have to be global in distribution to survive? Another example is Venus. Should Venus be seen as an example where life, which possibly arose in the first few hundred million years when the planet was still in the habitable zone, would have had no chance to

Demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions: are they relevant to population health patterns in Africa?

Science.gov (United States)

Kuate Defo, Barthélémy

2014-01-01

Studies of trends in population changes and epidemiological profiles in the developing world have overwhelmingly relied upon the concepts of demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions, even though their usefulness in describing and understanding population and health trends in developing countries has been repeatedly called into question. The issue is particularly relevant for the study of population health patterns in Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, as the history and experience there differs substantially from that of Western Europe and North America, for which these concepts were originally developed. The aim of this study is two-fold: to review and clarify any distinction between the concepts of demographic transition, epidemiological transition and health transition and to identify summary indicators of population health to test how well these concepts apply in Africa. Notwithstanding the characteristically diverse African context, Africa is a continent of uncertainties and emergencies where discontinuities and interruptions of health, disease, and mortality trends reflect the enduring fragility and instability of countries and the vulnerabilities of individuals and populations in the continent. Africa as a whole remains the furthest behind the world's regions in terms of health improvements and longevity, as do its sub-Saharan African regions and societies specifically. This study documents: 1) theoretically and empirically the similarities and differences between the demographic transition, epidemiological transition, and health transition; 2) simple summary indicators that can be used to evaluate their descriptive and predictive features; 3) marked disparities in the onset and pace of variations and divergent trends in health, disease, and mortality patterns as well as fertility and life expectancy trajectories among African countries and regions over the past 60 years; 4) the rapid decline in infant mortality and gains in life expectancy from the

Turkey’s Epidemiological and Demographic Transitions: 1931-2013

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Coşkun Bakar

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Background: The causes of death have changed with regard to the epidemiological and demographic events in society. There is no evidence of prior research into the epidemiological transition in Turkey. This transition in Turkey should be observed starting with the Ottoman Empire period (19th to early 20th century. However, information about the Ottoman Empire is quite limited. Aims: To discuss the epidemiological and demographic transitions in Turkey, using demographic, educational and urbanization data in our present study. Study Design: A descriptive archive study. Methods: Mortality statistics dating from 1931 and published by the Turkish Statistical Institute were analysed, and the causes of death were coded and classified according to ICD-10. Other data were obtained from the published reports and studies regarding the issue. Results: In the 1930s, Turkey’s life expectancy was low (aged 40 years, fertility and mortality rates were high (respectively 45% and 31%, and the main causes of death were infectious diseases. Nowadays, life expectancy is close to 80 years, the total fertility rate has dropped to 2.1 per woman, and the main causes of death are chronic diseases and cancer. The population rate in the urban areas has increased steadily from 24.2% in 1927 to 77.3% in 2012. level of education has also increased during this period. In 1935, less than 10% of women were literate, and in 2013 90% were literate. Qualitative and quantitative increase have been observed in the presentation and access of healthcare services compared to the early years of the Republic. Conclusion: Turkey has been undergoing a modernization period in the last 200 years, and it is believed that the epidemiological and demographic transitions result from this period. This process has led to urbanization and an increase in the level of education, as well as a decrease in premature deaths, lower fertility rates, and an increase in the elderly population and chronic

Demographic change, economic conditions, and subsistence salmon harvests in Alaska’s Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim region

OpenAIRE

Howe, E. Lance; Martin, Stephanie

2009-01-01

This paper addresses broad demographic and economic characteristics of the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim region (AYK) of Alaska. AYK human population growth has generally been moderate over time. Because out-migration regularly exceeds in-migration, especially in the villages, population growth is mainly a product of natality. We anticipate future population growth patterns will be similar. In terms of regional characteristics, the linguistically and geographically distinct populations of the AYK re...

Integration of genetic and demographic data to assess population risk in a continuously distributed species

Science.gov (United States)

Fedy, Bradley C.; Row, Jeffery R.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.

2017-01-01

The identification and demographic assessment of biologically meaningful populations is fundamental to species’ ecology and management. Although genetic tools are used frequently to identify populations, studies often do not incorporate demographic data to understand their respective population trends. We used genetic data to define subpopulations in a continuously distributed species. We assessed demographic independence and variation in population trends across the distribution. Additionally, we identified potential barriers to gene flow among subpopulations. We sampled greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) leks from across their range (≈175,000 Km2) in Wyoming and amplified DNA at 14 microsatellite loci for 1761 samples. Subsequently, we assessed population structure in unrelated individuals (n = 872) by integrating results from multiple Bayesian clustering approaches and used the boundaries to inform our assessment of long-term population trends and lek activity over the period of 1995–2013. We identified four genetic clusters of which two northern ones showed demographic independence from the others. Trends in population size for the northwest subpopulation were statistically different from the other three genetic clusters and the northeast and southwest subpopulations demonstrated a general trend of increasing proportion of inactive leks over time. Population change from 1996 to 2012 suggested population growth in the southern subpopulations and decline, or neutral, change in the northern subpopulations. We suggest that sage-grouse subpopulations in northern Wyoming are at greater risk of extirpation than the southern subpopulations due to smaller census and effective population sizes and higher variability within subpopulations. Our research is an example of incorporating genetic and demographic data and provides guidance on the identification of subpopulations of conservation concern.

The response of southern California ecosystems to Younger Dryas-like rapid climate change: Comparison of glacial terminations 1 and 5.

Science.gov (United States)

Heusser, L. E.; Hendy, I. L.

2015-12-01

The Younger Dryas is a well-known rapid climatic cooling that interrupted the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 1-2 deglacial warming of Termination 1. This cool event has been associated with ice sheet readvance, meridional overturning, circulation changes, and southward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. In Southern California, the Younger Dryas has been associated with cooler SST, low marine productivity, a well-ventilated oxygen minimum zone, and a wetter climate. Similar rapid cooling events have been found at other terminations including Termination 5 at the MIS 11-12 deglaciation (~425 Ka) identified by ice rafting events in the North Atlantic. Here we present new pollen census data from a unique suite of cores taken from the sub-oxic sediments of Santa Barbara Basin (MV0508-15JC, MV0805-20JC, MV0508-33JC, 29JC and 21JC). These short cores, collected on a truncated anticline within SBB, provide the opportunity to examine the response of southern California terrestrial and marine ecosystems to rapid climate change during the MIS 11-12 deglaciation (Termination 5), which is identified by a bioturbated interval within a sequence of laminated sediments. During Termination 1, changes in Southern California precipitation are reflected in pollen- based reconstructions Southern California vegetation. The high precipitation of glacial montane-coniferous assemblages of pine (Pinus) and Juniper (Juniperus/Calocedrus) transitions into interglacial drought, as expresssed by arid oak (Quercus)/chaparral vegetation. The Younger Dryas interrupts the transition as a high-amplitude pulse in pine associated with increased Gramineae (grass). Termination 5 differs, as the high precipitation of glacial montane-coniferous assemblages do not transition into arid oak/chaparral vegetation. However, a Younger Dryas-like rapid climate event was associated with increased pine and grass.

Visualising the demographic factors which shape population age structure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tom Wilson

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Background: The population pyramid is one of the most popular tools for visualising population age structure. However, it is difficult to discern from the diagram the relative effects of different demographic components on the size of age-specific populations, making it hard to understand exactly how a population's age structure is formed. Objective: The aim of this paper is to introduce a type of population pyramid which shows how births, deaths, and migration have shaped a population's age structure. Methods: Births, deaths, and population data were obtained from the Human Mortality Database and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. A variation on the conventional population pyramid, termed here a components-of-change pyramid, was created. Based on cohort population accounts, it illustrates how births, deaths, and net migration have created the population of each age group. A simple measure which summarises the impact of net migration on age structure is also suggested. Results: Example components-of-change pyramids for several countries and subnational regions are presented, which illustrate how births, deaths, and net migration have fashioned current population age structures. The influence of migration is shown to vary greatly between populations. Conclusions: The new type of pyramid aids interpretation of a population's age structure and helps to understand its demographic history over the last century.

Public health in a rapidly changing world

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tatiana I. Andreeva

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Several months in 2013 and 2014 have been a hardly predictable time in Ukraine, and the situation is still far from being stable. This made the editorial team of TCPHEE based in Ukraine postpone publishing consecutive issues. However, while the situation still requires practical steps, many aspects including those related to public health require analysis and debate. Thus we invite opinion pieces and studies addressing all different spheres of how public health should function under changing social circumstances. There might be a wide range of such related topics. The most obvious ones are those linked to changing living conditions. Many studies have been undertaken and published with regard to health threats to refugees, people involved in natural or technical disasters (Noji, 2005. Along with environmental health threats, there might be mental health disturbances (World Health Organization, 1992 resulting from long-term strain, losses et cetera. Another important focus is related to changes in health services provision. Crimea, which is a former Ukrainian territory now occupied by the Russian Federation, was among those in Ukraine highly affected with HIV (Dehne, Khodakevich, Hamers, & Schwartlander, 1999. This was responded by several NGOs actively providing harm reduction services to high-risk groups along with methadone substitution therapy to opiate users and antiretroviral medicines to those HIV-infected (Curtis, 2010. However, there are news reports that Russia is going to stop provision of methadone (kommersant.ru, 2014. As opiate substitution programs have been shown an effective approach towards preventing HIV transmission among people who inject drugs (MacArthur et al., 2012, such change in public health policies might affect not only most at risk populations but their partners and population as a whole as well resulting in a rapid spread of HIV. Yet another related topic is that of how health services can be organized at times of

Mixing times towards demographic equilibrium in insect populations with temperature variable age structures.

Science.gov (United States)

Damos, Petros

2015-08-01

In this study, we use entropy related mixing rate modules to measure the effects of temperature on insect population stability and demographic breakdown. The uncertainty in the age of the mother of a randomly chosen newborn, and how it is moved after a finite act of time steps, is modeled using a stochastic transformation of the Leslie matrix. Age classes are represented as a cycle graph and its transitions towards the stable age distribution are brought forth as an exact Markov chain. The dynamics of divergence, from a non equilibrium state towards equilibrium, are evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy. Moreover, Kullback-Leibler distance is applied as information-theoretic measure to estimate exact mixing times of age transitions probabilities towards equilibrium. Using empirically data, we show that on the initial conditions and simulated projection's trough time, that population entropy can effectively be applied to detect demographic variability towards equilibrium under different temperature conditions. Changes in entropy are correlated with the fluctuations of the insect population decay rates (i.e. demographic stability towards equilibrium). Moreover, shorter mixing times are directly linked to lower entropy rates and vice versa. This may be linked to the properties of the insect model system, which in contrast to warm blooded animals has the ability to greatly change its metabolic and demographic rates. Moreover, population entropy and the related distance measures that are applied, provide a means to measure these rates. The current results and model projections provide clear biological evidence why dynamic population entropy may be useful to measure population stability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Environment, migration and the European demographic deficit

Science.gov (United States)

Harper, Sarah

2012-03-01

Many countries in the more developed world, and some in the less developed, are facing new economic and social pressures associated with the ageing of their populations. Europe, in particular, is forecast to have a demographic deficit, which may be alleviated by in-migration to the region. However, several commentators have proposed that Europe will not be able to successfully compete with other regions, in particular Asia, in the coming years for the skills it will require. This letter explores these themes, arguing that climate change will increase the attractiveness of Europe as a destination of economic choice for future skilled workers, to the detriment of more environmentally challenged regions.

Environment, migration and the European demographic deficit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harper, Sarah

2012-01-01

Many countries in the more developed world, and some in the less developed, are facing new economic and social pressures associated with the ageing of their populations. Europe, in particular, is forecast to have a demographic deficit, which may be alleviated by in-migration to the region. However, several commentators have proposed that Europe will not be able to successfully compete with other regions, in particular Asia, in the coming years for the skills it will require. This letter explores these themes, arguing that climate change will increase the attractiveness of Europe as a destination of economic choice for future skilled workers, to the detriment of more environmentally challenged regions. (letter)

Understanding the Demographic and Health Transition in ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

23 juin 2009 ... Understanding the Demographic and Health Transition in Developing Countries ... countries comes from analysis of demographic and health survey data. ... Navrongo (Ghana), Matlab (Bangladesh) and Filabavi (Viet Nam) ...

Health Systems Research in a Complex and Rapidly Changing Context: Ethical Implications of Major Health Systems Change at Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

MacGregor, Hayley; Bloom, Gerald

2016-12-01

This paper discusses health policy and systems research in complex and rapidly changing contexts. It focuses on ethical issues at stake for researchers working with government policy makers to provide evidence to inform major health systems change at scale, particularly when the dynamic nature of the context and ongoing challenges to the health system can result in unpredictable outcomes. We focus on situations where 'country ownership' of HSR is relatively well established and where there is significant involvement of local researchers and close ties and relationships with policy makers are often present. We frame our discussion around two country case studies with which we are familiar, namely China and South Africa and discuss the implications for conducting 'embedded' research. We suggest that reflexivity is an important concept for health system researchers who need to think carefully about positionality and their normative stance and to use such reflection to ensure that they can negotiate to retain autonomy, whilst also contributing evidence for health system change. A research process informed by the notion of reflexive practice and iterative learning will require a longitudinal review at key points in the research timeline. Such review should include the convening of a deliberative process and should involve a range of stakeholders, including those most likely to be affected by the intended and unintended consequences of change. © 2016 The Authors Developing World Bioethics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Relative contribution of decreased productivity and survival to recent changes in the demographic trend of the Rivière George Caribou Herd

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Crête

1996-01-01

Full Text Available The Rivière George caribou herd (RGCH was numerically low during the middle part of the century but apparently erupted in the sixties and the seventies. Puberty was early and pregnancy rate was high among RGCH females from 1973 until the mid-eighties when fecundity decreased significantly, in particular among sub-adults; productivity remained low in 1992. Autumn calf:female ratios reflected this trend in pregnancy, exceeding 50 calves: 100 cows between 1973 and 1983, but dropping thereafter progressively to a low of 24 in 1992. In 1993, this ratio rebounded back to 42. Annual adult survival rate of radio-collared females was high (0.95 at the beginning of the monitoring in 1984, but exhibited a variable but declining trend until 1992. Simulations were conducted to estimate the demographic trend of the RGCH between 1984 and 1992, using annual survival rates of radio-collared animals and annual autumn calffemale ratios to estimate calf production. Age structure played a minor role in estimating the finite rate of increase (Lamda. According to the simulations, the RGCH increased in size until 1987, and showed a slight decrease thereafter. The herd should have decreased by 12-15% between 1988 and 1993, according to the simulations. Productivity first caused a decline in Lamda, but in recent years decreased survival contributed slightly more than productivity to the reduction in Lamda. Estimation of the herd size by means of aerial censuses in 1976, 1984, 1988 and 1993 suggested a similar pattern in demographic trend, differences being statistically meaningless. We speculated on the future of the RGCH, that could have erupted after many decades of unfavourable weather. The herd will exhibit a rapid descent to low numbers if wolves show a numerical response to current caribou abundance, or if lichen availability on the winter range decreases due to competition with the adjacent and increasing Rivière aux Feuilles herd; otherwise it will exhibit

Dryland responses to global change suggest the potential for rapid non-linear responses to some changes but resilience to others

Science.gov (United States)

Reed, S.; Ferrenberg, S.; Tucker, C.; Rutherford, W. A.; Wertin, T. M.; McHugh, T. A.; Morrissey, E.; Kuske, C.; Belnap, J.

2017-12-01

Drylands represent our planet's largest terrestrial biome, making up over 35% of Earth's land surface. In the context of this vast areal extent, it is no surprise that recent research suggests dryland inter-annual variability and responses to change have the potential to drive biogeochemical cycles and climate at the global-scale. Further, the data we do have suggest drylands can respond rapidly and non-linearly to change. Nevertheless, our understanding of the cross-system consistency of and mechanisms behind dryland responses to a changed environment remains relatively poor. This poor understanding hinders not only our larger understanding of terrestrial ecosystem function, but also our capacity to forecast future global biogeochemical cycles and climate. Here we present data from a series of Colorado Plateau manipulation experiments - including climate, land use, and nitrogen deposition manipulations - to explore how vascular plants, microbial communities, and biological soil crusts (a community of mosses, lichens, and/or cyanobacteria living in the interspace among vascular plants in arid and semiarid ecosystems worldwide) respond to a host of environmental changes. These responses include not only assessments of community composition, but of their function as well. We will explore photosynthesis, net soil CO2 exchange, soil carbon stocks and chemistry, albedo, and nutrient cycling. The experiments were begun with independent questions and cover a range of environmental change drivers and scientific approaches, but together offer a relatively holistic picture of how some drylands can change their structure and function in response to change. In particular, the data show very high ecosystem vulnerability to particular drivers, but surprising resilience to others, suggesting a multi-faceted response of these diverse systems.

Dental arch changes associated with rapid maxillary expansion: A retrospective model analysis study

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Ivor M D′Souza

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Transverse deficiency of the maxilla is a common clinical problem in orthodontics and dentofacial orthopedics. Transverse maxillary deficiency, isolated or associated with other dentofacial deformities, results in esthetic and functional impairment giving rise to several clinical manifestations such as asymmetrical facial growth, positional and functional mandibular deviations, altered dentofacial esthetics, adverse periodontal responses, unstable dental tipping, and other functional problems. Orthopedic maxillary expansion is the preferred treatment approach to increase the maxillary transverse dimension in young patients by splitting of the mid palatal suture. This orthopedic procedure has lately been subject of renewed interest in orthodontic treatment mechanics because of its potential for increasing arch perimeter to alleviate crowding in the maxillary arch without adversely affecting facial profile. Hence, the present investigation was conducted to establish a correlation between transverse expansion and changes in the arch perimeter, arch width and arch length. Methods: For this purpose, 10 subjects (five males, five females were selected who had been treated by rapid maxillary expansion (RME using hyrax rapid palatal expander followed by fixed mechanotherapy (PEA. Pretreatment (T1, postexpansion (T2, and posttreatment (T3 dental models were compared for dental changes brought about by RME treatment and its stability at the end of fixed mechanotherapy. After model measurements were made, the changes between T1-T2, T2-T3 and T1-T3 were determined for each patient. The mean difference between T1-T2, T2-T3 and T1-T3 were compared to assess the effects of RME on dental arch measurements. Results are expressed as mean ± standard deviation and are compared by repeated measures analysis of variance followed by a post-hoc test. Arch perimeter changes are correlated with changes in arch widths at the canine, premolar and molar

Migration, settlement change and health in post-apartheid South Africa: triangulating health and demographic surveillance with national census data.

Science.gov (United States)

Collinson, Mark A; Tollman, Stephen M; Kahn, Kathleen

2007-08-01

World population growth will be increasingly concentrated in the urban areas of the developing world; however, some scholars caution against the oversimplification of African urbanization noting that there may be "counter-urbanization" and a prevailing pattern of circular rural-urban migration. The aim of the paper is to examine the ongoing urban transition in South Africa in the post-apartheid period, and to consider the health and social policy implications of prevailing migration patterns. Two data sets were analysed, namely the South African national census of 2001 and the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system. A settlement-type transition matrix was constructed on the national data to show how patterns of settlement have changed in a five-year period. Using the sub-district data, permanent and temporary migration was characterized, providing migration rates by age and sex, and showing the distribution of origins and destinations. The comparison of national and sub-district data highlight the following features: urban population growth, particularly in metropolitan areas, resulting from permanent and temporary migration; prevailing patterns of temporary, circular migration, and a changing gender balance in this form of migration; stepwise urbanization; and return migration from urban to rural areas. Policy concerns include: rural poverty exacerbated by labour migration; explosive conditions for the transmission of HIV; labour migrants returning to die in rural areas; and the challenges for health information created by chronically ill migrants returning to rural areas to convalesce. Lastly, suggestions are made on how to address the dearth of relevant population information for policy-making in the fields of migration, settlement change and health.

Rapid shifts in Atta cephalotes fungus-garden enzyme activity after a change in fungal substrate (Attini, Formicidae)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kooij, P W; Schiøtt, M; Boomsma, J J

2011-01-01

Fungus gardens of the basidiomycete Leucocoprinus gongylophorus sustain large colonies of leaf-cutting ants by degrading the plant material collected by the ants. Recent studies have shown that enzyme activity in these gardens is primarily targeted toward starch, proteins and the pectin matrix......, we measured the changes in enzyme activity after a controlled shift in fungal substrate offered to six laboratory colonies of Atta cephalotes. An ant diet consisting exclusively of grains of parboiled rice rapidly increased the activity of endo-proteinases and some of the pectinases attacking...... from the rice diet, relative to the leaf diet controls. Enzyme activity in the older, bottom sections of fungus gardens decreased, indicating a faster processing of the rice substrate compared to the leaf diet. These results suggest that leaf-cutting ant fungus gardens can rapidly adjust enzyme...

Rapid characterisation of vegetation structure to predict refugia and climate change impacts across a global biodiversity hotspot.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonius G T Schut

Full Text Available Identification of refugia is an increasingly important adaptation strategy in conservation planning under rapid anthropogenic climate change. Granite outcrops (GOs provide extraordinary diversity, including a wide range of taxa, vegetation types and habitats in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR. However, poor characterization of GOs limits the capacity of conservation planning for refugia under climate change. A novel means for the rapid identification of potential refugia is presented, based on the assessment of local-scale environment and vegetation structure in a wider region. This approach was tested on GOs across the SWAFR. Airborne discrete return Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR data and Red Green and Blue (RGB imagery were acquired. Vertical vegetation profiles were used to derive 54 structural classes. Structural vegetation types were described in three areas for supervised classification of a further 13 GOs across the region. Habitat descriptions based on 494 vegetation plots on and around these GOs were used to quantify relationships between environmental variables, ground cover and canopy height. The vegetation surrounding GOs is strongly related to structural vegetation types (Kappa = 0.8 and to its spatial context. Water gaining sites around GOs are characterized by taller and denser vegetation in all areas. The strong relationship between rainfall, soil-depth, and vegetation structure (R(2 of 0.8-0.9 allowed comparisons of vegetation structure between current and future climate. Significant shifts in vegetation structural types were predicted and mapped for future climates. Water gaining areas below granite outcrops were identified as important putative refugia. A reduction in rainfall may be offset by the occurrence of deeper soil elsewhere on the outcrop. However, climate change interactions with fire and water table declines may render our conclusions conservative. The LiDAR-based mapping approach presented

Demographic Risks of the Pension Reform in the Russian Federation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arkady Konstantinovich Solovyev

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the study is to analyze the impact of the demographic crisis in the country’s fiscal system. In the article, the pension system for the first time is considered as a multifactorial model, which during the different historical periods corrects the degree of its dependence on the interdependent complex of macroeconomic and demographic factors. The economically sound and socially correct accounting of the interference of retirement age and the specified development factors of pension system requires a fundamental change in the methodological approaches to the problem of raising the retirement age by using the actuarial methods of forecasting. The actuarial analysis of the problem of retirement age shows that the perception of the linear dependence on demographic parameters of the age when the national pension is awarded cannot be considered as a tool for regulating the efficiency of the pension system. For the science-based solution to the problem of rising the retirement age, along with the dynamics of demographic parameters, it is necessary to take into account the whole range of macroeconomic conditions for the state development as well as the long-term socio-economic consequences. Another significant result of the study are the specific parameters of the actuarial assessments of the impact of demographic and macroeconomic conditions of increasing the retirement age in Russia, conducted using the state statistical data. The practical proposals to mitigate the negative economic consequences are formulated. The key conclusion reached is that the raising of the retirement age should be aimed exclusively at the economic stimulation of the formation of the pension rights of the insured in the long term, rather than to the short-term savings of the state budget. The methodological approaches grounded in the work, and the quantitative results of the actuarial calculations may be applied in the shaping the public pension policy when

Demographic monitoring of wild muriqui populations: Criteria for defining priority areas and monitoring intensity.

Science.gov (United States)

Strier, Karen B; Possamai, Carla B; Tabacow, Fernanda P; Pissinatti, Alcides; Lanna, Andre M; Rodrigues de Melo, Fabiano; Moreira, Leandro; Talebi, Maurício; Breves, Paula; Mendes, Sérgio L; Jerusalinsky, Leandro

2017-01-01

Demographic data are essential to assessments of the status of endangered species. However, establishing an integrated monitoring program to obtain useful data on contemporary and future population trends requires both the identification of priority areas and populations and realistic evaluations of the kinds of data that can be obtained under different monitoring regimes. We analyzed all known populations of a critically endangered primate, the muriqui (genus: Brachyteles) using population size, genetic uniqueness, geographic importance (including potential importance in corridor programs) and implementability scores to define monitoring priorities. Our analyses revealed nine priority populations for the northern muriqui (B. hypoxanthus) and nine for the southern muriqui (B. arachnoides). In addition, we employed knowledge of muriqui developmental and life history characteristics to define the minimum monitoring intensity needed to evaluate demographic trends along a continuum ranging from simple descriptive changes in population size to predictions of population changes derived from individual based life histories. Our study, stimulated by the Brazilian government's National Action Plan for the Conservation of Muriquis, is fundamental to meeting the conservation goals for this genus, and also provides a model for defining priorities and methods for the implementation of integrated demographic monitoring programs for other endangered and critically endangered species of primates.

Demographic monitoring of wild muriqui populations: Criteria for defining priority areas and monitoring intensity.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karen B Strier

Full Text Available Demographic data are essential to assessments of the status of endangered species. However, establishing an integrated monitoring program to obtain useful data on contemporary and future population trends requires both the identification of priority areas and populations and realistic evaluations of the kinds of data that can be obtained under different monitoring regimes. We analyzed all known populations of a critically endangered primate, the muriqui (genus: Brachyteles using population size, genetic uniqueness, geographic importance (including potential importance in corridor programs and implementability scores to define monitoring priorities. Our analyses revealed nine priority populations for the northern muriqui (B. hypoxanthus and nine for the southern muriqui (B. arachnoides. In addition, we employed knowledge of muriqui developmental and life history characteristics to define the minimum monitoring intensity needed to evaluate demographic trends along a continuum ranging from simple descriptive changes in population size to predictions of population changes derived from individual based life histories. Our study, stimulated by the Brazilian government's National Action Plan for the Conservation of Muriquis, is fundamental to meeting the conservation goals for this genus, and also provides a model for defining priorities and methods for the implementation of integrated demographic monitoring programs for other endangered and critically endangered species of primates.

Innovation in regulation of rapidly changing health markets.

Science.gov (United States)

Bloom, Gerald; Henson, Spencer; Peters, David H

2014-06-24

The rapid evolution and spread of health markets across low and middle-income countries (LMICs) has contributed to a significant increase in the availability of health-related goods and services around the world. The support institutions needed to regulate these markets have lagged behind, with regulatory systems that are weak and under-resourced. This paper explores the key issues associated with regulation of health markets in LMICs, and the different goals of regulation, namely quality and safety of care, value for money, social agreement over fair access and financing, and accountability. Licensing, price controls, and other traditional approaches to the regulation of markets for health products and services have played an important role, but they have been of questionable effectiveness in ensuring safety and efficacy at the point of the user in LMICs. The paper proposes a health market systems conceptual framework, using the value chain for the production, distribution and retail of health goods and services, to examine regulation of health markets in the LMIC context. We conclude by exploring the changing context going forwards, laying out implications for future heath market regulation. We argue that the case for new approaches to the regulation of markets for health products and services in LMICs is compelling. Although traditional "command and control" approaches will have a place in the toolkit of regulators, a broader bundle of approaches is needed that is adapted to the national and market-level context of particular LMICs. The implication is that it is not possible to apply standard or single interventions across countries, as approaches proven to work well in one context will not necessarily work well elsewhere.

Mental health in the island nations of the Western Pacific: a rapid review of the literature.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, Ernest; Thusanth, Sneha; McCalman, Janya; Gopalkrishnan, Narayan

2015-12-01

The aim of the study was to identify mental-health-relevant literature accessible to policy makers and healthcare workers in the island nations of the Western Pacific. Material collated to support the inaugural Leadership in Mental Health: Island Nations course held in Cairns in May 2015 was used as the basis of a "rapid review". The rapid review considered 303 documents identified by a search carried out using James Cook University's OneSearch, Google Scholar, and the authors' knowledge. Search terms included mental health and the like, and terms with Pacific and current Pacific island country names. Findings were classified by region/country, year of release/publication, mental health issue addressed, peer-reviewed or grey literature, and type of study. Almost half of the findings had been released in the previous five years. However, only 36% were peer-reviewed publications and only 3.6% of the findings were intervention studies. There is limited easily accessible documentation to confidently direct practice or policies regarding which strategies are likely to be effective in responding to the high rates of mental ill-health experienced in the Pacific island nations, or to plan for increases as a consequence of rapid social and demographic changes that are transforming Pacific island societies. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015.

Cone-beam computed tomography evaluation of dentoskeletal changes after asymmetric rapid maxillary expansion.

Science.gov (United States)

Baka, Zeliha Muge; Akin, Mehmet; Ucar, Faruk Izzet; Ileri, Zehra

2015-01-01

The aims of this study were to quantitatively evaluate the changes in arch widths and buccolingual inclinations of the posterior teeth after asymmetric rapid maxillary expansion (ARME) and to compare the measurements between the crossbite and the noncrossbite sides with cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT). From our clinic archives, we selected the CBCT records of 30 patients with unilateral skeletal crossbite (13 boys, 14.2 ± 1.3 years old; 17 girls, 13.8 ± 1.3 years old) who underwent ARME treatment. A modified acrylic bonded rapid maxillary expansion appliance including an occlusal locking mechanism was used in all patients. CBCT records had been taken before ARME treatment and after a 3-month retention period. Fourteen angular and 80 linear measurements were taken for the maxilla and the mandible. Frontally clipped CBCT images were used for the evaluation. Paired sample and independent sample t tests were used for statistical comparisons. Comparisons of the before-treatment and after-retention measurements showed that the arch widths and buccolingual inclinations of the posterior teeth increased significantly on the crossbite side of the maxilla and on the noncrossbite side of the mandible (P ARME treatment, the crossbite side of the maxilla and the noncrossbite side of the mandible were more affected than were the opposite sides. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Relating demographic characteristics of a small mammal to remotely sensed forest-stand condition.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hania Lada

Full Text Available Many ecological systems around the world are changing rapidly in response to direct (land-use change and indirect (climate change human actions. We need tools to assess dynamically, and over appropriate management scales, condition of ecosystems and their responses to potential mitigation of pressures. Using a validated model, we determined whether stand condition of floodplain forests is related to densities of a small mammal (a carnivorous marsupial, Antechinus flavipes in 60,000 ha of extant river red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis forests in south-eastern Australia in 2004, 2005 and 2011. Stand condition was assessed remotely using models built from ground assessments of stand condition and satellite-derived reflectance. Other covariates, such as volumes of fallen timber, distances to floods, rainfall and life stages were included in the model. Trapping of animals was conducted at 272 plots (0.25 ha across the region. Densities of second-year females (i.e. females that had survived to a second breeding year and of second-year females with suckled teats (i.e. inferred to have been successful mothers were higher in stands with the highest condition. There was no evidence of a relationship with stand condition for males or all females. These outcomes show that remotely-sensed estimates of stand condition (here floodplain forests are relatable to some demographic characteristics of a small mammal species, and may provide useful information about the capacity of ecosystems to support animal populations. Over-regulation of large, lowland rivers has led to declines in many facets of floodplain function. If management of water resources continues as it has in recent decades, then our results suggest that there will be further deterioration in stand condition and a decreased capacity for female yellow-footed antechinuses to breed multiple times.

Major Aspects of Transformations of International Companies in a Changing World

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalia Yurievna Konina

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Economic globalization and demographic changes as well rapidly changing technologies are the most important factors of the firm's environment. The rapid development of information technology radically changes the very essence of the creation of new value. The pace of technological change and innovations increases. In the most advanced sectors of global economy the knowledge is a key resource. The world economy has not finally recovered after the crisis of 2008-2009. The global economy his becoming more multicentre and the vector of economic power is shifting to China and India. The main actors and the anchor of today global economy are leading international companies (transnational corporations- TNCs. Several thousands of TNCs together with their value chain dominate the global economy. The economic power allows the largest TNCs significantly push the boundaries of the company. Globalization has changed external networks of TNCs, their corporate governance, corporate ownership as well transfer pricing schemes as well relations between the headquarter and its subsidiaries and affiliates. A remarkable feature of TNCs recent FDI flows is not Greenfield investment but mergers and acquisitions. Key features of TNC activities are defined by industry. A growing number of TNCs are changing their strategic activities, basing on the latest technology trends. The most important aspects of TNCs activities are linked to innovation, financial operations, advanced management technique, increase in intangible assets. Innovation activity of TNCs is shifting to Asia.

Laboratory Demographics Lookup Tool

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This website provides demographic information about laboratories, including CLIA number, facility name and address, where the laboratory testing is performed, the...

Socio-Demographic and Lifestyle Factors Predict 5-Year Changes in Adiposity among a Group of Black South African Adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cornelie Nienaber-Rousseau

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The rising prevalence of obesity and excessive adiposity are global public health concerns. Understanding determinants of changes in adiposity over time is critical for informing effective evidence-based prevention or treatment. However, limited information is available to achieve this objective. Cultural, demographic, environmental, and behavioral factors including socio-economic status (SES likely account for obesity development. To this end, we related these variables to anthropometric measures in 1058 black adult Tswana-speaking South Africans who were HIV negative in a prospective study over five years. Body mass index (BMI and waist circumference increased in both sexes, whereas triceps skinfold thickness remained the same. Over the five years, women moved to higher BMI categories and more were diagnosed with central obesity. Age correlated negatively, whereas SES, physical activity, energy, and fat intake correlated positively with adiposity markers in women. In men, SES, marital status, physical activity, and being urban predicted increases in adiposity. For women, SES and urbanicity increased, whereas menopause and smoking decreased adiposity. Among men, smokers had less change in BMI than those that never smoked over five years. Our findings suggest that interventions, focusing on the urban living, the married and those with the highest SES—the high-risk groups identified herein—are of primary importance to contain morbidity and premature mortality due to obesity in black South Africans.

The Urban Household in the 1980s: A Demographic and Economic Perspective. Revised.

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Muller, Thomas; And Others

This report focuses on demographic and economic changes affecting urban households during the 1980s. Statistics regarding birth, fertility and mortality rates, marriage and divorce, and household formation are presented. Metropolitan and interregional trends in mobility are examined by racial, income and age groups. Growth rates of the national…

Demographic inferences from large-scale NGS data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Casper-Emil Tingskov

.g. human genetics. In this thesis, the three papers presented demonstrate the advantages of NGS data in the framework of population genetics for elucidating demographic inferences, important for understanding conservation efforts, selection and mutational burdens. In the first whole-genome study...... that the demographic history of the Inuit is the most extreme in terms of population size, of any human population. We identify a slight increase in the number of deleterious alleles because of this demographic history and support our results using simulations. We use this to show that the reduction in population size...

Relation Between Demographic Factors And Hospitalization In ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Relation Between Demographic Factors And Hospitalization In Patients With Gastrointestinal Disorders, Using Quantail Regression Analysis. ... East African Journal of Public Health ... Objective: The aim of this study is to investigate relation between demographic factors and hospitalization in gastrointestinal disorders.

Spectroscopic sensitivity of real-time, rapidly induced phytochemical change in response to damage.

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Couture, John J; Serbin, Shawn P; Townsend, Philip A

2013-04-01

An ecological consequence of plant-herbivore interactions is the phytochemical induction of defenses in response to insect damage. Here, we used reflectance spectroscopy to characterize the foliar induction profile of cardenolides in Asclepias syriaca in response to damage, tracked in vivo changes and examined the influence of multiple plant traits on cardenolide concentrations. Foliar cardenolide concentrations were measured at specific time points following damage to capture their induction profile. Partial least-squares regression (PLSR) modeling was employed to calibrate cardenolide concentrations to reflectance spectroscopy. In addition, subsets of plants were either repeatedly sampled to track in vivo changes or modified to reduce latex flow to damaged areas. Cardenolide concentrations and the induction profile of A. syriaca were well predicted using models derived from reflectance spectroscopy, and this held true for repeatedly sampled plants. Correlations between cardenolides and other foliar-related variables were weak or not significant. Plant modification for latex reduction inhibited an induced cardenolide response. Our findings show that reflectance spectroscopy can characterize rapid phytochemical changes in vivo. We used reflectance spectroscopy to identify the mechanisms behind the production of plant secondary metabolites, simultaneously characterizing multiple foliar constituents. In this case, cardenolide induction appears to be largely driven by enhanced latex delivery to leaves following damage. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Spatial demographic models to inform conservation planning of golden eagles in renewable energy landscapes.

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Spatial demographic models can help guide monitoring and management activities targeting at-risk species, even in cases where baseline data are lacking. Here, we provide an example of how site-specific changes in land-use and other anthropogenic stressors can be incorporated int...

A demographic-economic explanation of political stability: Mauritius as a microcosm.

Science.gov (United States)

Lempert, D

1987-06-01

"This paper examines current models of economic and political development--social modernization theory, political and economic characteristics of stable regimes, and cross country analysis of political stability--and tests them on the Indian Ocean Island of Mauritius. The analysis continues with a causal explanation for political stability in Mauritius' recent history, derived from an examination of economic policies and demographic patterns. Political change in Mauritius over the past sixty years seems to be explained best by a model for political stability which integrates specific economic and demographic factors. The model, applicable to development in other third world nations, revises Malthus' conclusion that population and economic conditions move in an oscillatory relationship and replaces it with a more comprehensive theory, suggesting that political stability is a function of both economic development and a repeating cyclical relationship between economics and population." excerpt

Net Ecosystem Exchange of CO2 with Rapidly Changing High Arctic Landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Emmerton, C. A.

2015-12-01

High Arctic landscapes are expansive and changing rapidly. However our understanding of their functional responses and potential to mitigate or enhance anthropogenic climate change is limited by few measurements. We collected eddy covariance measurements to quantify the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 with polar semidesert and meadow wetland landscapes at the highest-latitude location measured to date (82°N). We coupled these rare data with ground and satellite vegetation production measurements (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) to evaluate the effectiveness of upscaling local to regional NEE. During the growing season, the dry polar semidesert landscape was a near zero sink of atmospheric CO2 (NEE: -0.3±13.5 g C m-2). A nearby meadow wetland accumulated over two magnitudes more carbon (NEE: -79.3±20.0 g C m-2) than the polar semidesert landscape, and was similar to meadow wetland NEE at much more southern latitudes. Polar semidesert NEE was most influenced by moisture, with wetter surface soils resulting in greater soil respiration and CO2 emissions. At the meadow wetland, soil heating enhanced plant growth, which in turn increased CO2 uptake. Our upscaling assessment found that polar semidesert NDVI measured on site was low (mean: 0.120-0.157) and similar to satellite measurements (mean: 0.155-0.163). However, weak plant growth resulted in poor satellite NDVI-NEE relationships and created challenges for remotely-detecting changes in the cycling of carbon on the polar semidesert landscape. The meadow wetland appeared more suitable to assess plant production and NEE via remote-sensing, however high Arctic wetland extent is constrained by topography to small areas that may be difficult to resolve with large satellite pixels. We predict that until summer precipitation and humidity increases substantially, climate-related changes of dry high Arctic landscapes may be restricted by poor soil moisture retention, and therefore have some inertia against

Cumulative effects of rapid climate and land-use changes on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, D. A.; Leibman, M. O.; Forbes, B. C.; Epstein, H. E.

2008-12-01

Our principal goal is to develop better, more far-looking tools to predict the cumulative effects of resource development, climate-change, and traditional land use. Here we use remote sensing, climate-change analyses, socio-economic analyses, and vegetation-change models to examine the cumulative effects of climate change, gas development, and reindeer herding on the Yamal Peninsula in northwest Siberia as part of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI). We find: 1. Direct (planned) impacts of industrial activities on the Yamal Peninsula are currently local and limited in extent, but this is changing rapidly as extensive gas fields are developed and land and sea transportation corridors are developed to get the gas to market. Indirect impacts of the development at Bovanenkovo, the largest gas field, exceed the direct impacts by a factor of three, and the total area of influence of the development on the reindeer pasturelands (e.g., area where migration routes and access to pasturelands is affected) exceeds the direct impacts by a factor of about 40. 2. The trend in land-surface temperatures has co-varied with the trend in sea-ice. Low sea ice in the preceding December-March period is correlated to warmer land temperature the following summer. The sea- ice trends in the Kara Sea-Yamal region are tied to variation in the North Atlantic Oscillation index. 4. Only a small greening response to warming has been detected on the Yamal in comparison with some other areas in the Arctic (e.g. Northern Alaska). The actual effects of climate-change on vegetation are currently hard to document at the ground level because of lack of baseline and long-term ground observations and difficulty of excluding reindeer in these studies. 5. There is high potential for extensive landscape effects due to unstable sandy soils, and extremely ice-rich permafrost near the surface on slopes. 6. Two different vegetation modeling approaches are being used to predict

Selected physical, biological and biogeochemical implications of a rapidly changing Arctic Marginal Ice Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Barber, David G.; Hop, Haakon; Mundy, Christopher J.; Else, Brent; Dmitrenko, Igor A.; Tremblay, Jean-Eric; Ehn, Jens K.; Assmy, Philipp; Daase, Malin; Candlish, Lauren M.; Rysgaard, Søren

2015-12-01

The Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) of the Arctic Ocean is changing rapidly due to a warming Arctic climate with commensurate reductions in sea ice extent and thickness. This Pan-Arctic review summarizes the main changes in the Arctic ocean-sea ice-atmosphere (OSA) interface, with implications for primary- and secondary producers in the ice and the underlying water column. Changes in the Arctic MIZ were interpreted for the period 1979-2010, based on best-fit regressions for each month. Trends of increasingly open water were statistically significant for each month, with quadratic fit for August-November, illustrating particularly strong seasonal feedbacks in sea-ice formation and decay. Geographic interpretations of physical and biological changes were based on comparison of regions with significant changes in sea ice: (1) The Pacific Sector of the Arctic Ocean including the Canada Basin and the Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian seas; (2) The Canadian Arctic Archipelago; (3) Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay; and (4) the Barents and Kara seas. Changes in ice conditions in the Barents sea/Kara sea region appear to be primarily forced by ocean heat fluxes during winter, whereas changes in the other sectors appear to be more summer-autumn related and primarily atmospherically forced. Effects of seasonal and regional changes in OSA-system with regard to increased open water were summarized for photosynthetically available radiation, nutrient delivery to the euphotic zone, primary production of ice algae and phytoplankton, ice-associated fauna and zooplankton, and gas exchange of CO2. Changes in the physical factors varied amongst regions, and showed direct effects on organisms linked to sea ice. Zooplankton species appear to be more flexible and likely able to adapt to variability in the onset of primary production. The major changes identified for the ice-associated ecosystem are with regard to production timing and abundance or biomass of ice flora and fauna, which are related to

A decade of rapid change: Biocultural influences on child growth in highland Peru.

Science.gov (United States)

Oths, Kathryn S; Smith, Hannah N; Stein, Max J; Lazo Landivar, Rodrigo J

2018-03-01

In the past decade many areas of Peru have been undergoing extreme environmental, economic, and cultural change. In the highland hamlet of Chugurpampa, La Libertad, climate change has ruined harvests and led to frequent periods of migration to the coast in search of livelihood. This biocultural research examines how the changes could be affecting the growth of children who maintain residence in the highlands. Clinical records from the early 2000s were compared to those from the early 2010s. Charts were randomly selected to record anthropometric data, netting a sample of 75 children ages 0-60 months of age. Analysis of covariance was run to compare mean stature, weight, and BMI between cohorts. Percentage of children who fall below the -2 threshold for z-scores for height and weight were compared by age and cohort. A significant secular trend in growth was found, with children born more recently larger than those born a decade before. The effect is most notable in the first year of life, with the growth advantage attenuated by the age of 3 for height and age 4 for weight. While children were unlikely to be stunted from 0 to 3 years of age, 44% of the later cohort were stunted and 11% were underweight from 4 to 5 years of age. Three possible explanations for the rapid shift are entertained: more time spent on the coast during gestation and early childhood, which may attenuate the effect of hypoxia on child growth; dietary change; and increased use of biomedicine. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Mapping populations at risk: improving spatial demographic data for infectious disease modeling and metric derivation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tatem Andrew J

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract The use of Global Positioning Systems (GPS and Geographical Information Systems (GIS in disease surveys and reporting is becoming increasingly routine, enabling a better understanding of spatial epidemiology and the improvement of surveillance and control strategies. In turn, the greater availability of spatially referenced epidemiological data is driving the rapid expansion of disease mapping and spatial modeling methods, which are becoming increasingly detailed and sophisticated, with rigorous handling of uncertainties. This expansion has, however, not been matched by advancements in the development of spatial datasets of human population distribution that accompany disease maps or spatial models. Where risks are heterogeneous across population groups or space or dependent on transmission between individuals, spatial data on human population distributions and demographic structures are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. The disease impact in terms of morbidity, mortality, and speed of spread varies substantially with demographic profiles, so that identifying the most exposed or affected populations becomes a key aspect of planning and targeting interventions. Subnational breakdowns of population counts by age and sex are routinely collected during national censuses and maintained in finer detail within microcensus data. Moreover, demographic and health surveys continue to collect representative and contemporary samples from clusters of communities in low-income countries where census data may be less detailed and not collected regularly. Together, these freely available datasets form a rich resource for quantifying and understanding the spatial variations in the sizes and distributions of those most at risk of disease in low income regions, yet at present, they remain unconnected data scattered across national statistical offices and websites. In this paper we discuss the deficiencies of existing

JINR rapid communications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-01-01

The present collection of rapid communications from JINR, Dubna, contains seven separate records on invisible Z-boson width and restrictions on next-to-minimal supersymmetric standard model, cosmic test of honeycomb drift chambers, fission of 209 Bi, 232 Th, 235 U, 238 U and 237 Np in a spallation neutron field, rapid screening of spontaneous and radiation-induced structural changes at the vestigial gene of Drosophila melanogaster by polymerase chain reaction, gamma-ray multiplicities in sub-barrier fission of 226 Th and the decay constants of the scalar and pseudoscalar mesons in the quark models with quasilocal interaction

Extreme Temperature Exceedances Change more Rapidly Under Future Warming in Regions of non-Gaussian Short Temperature Distribution Tails

Science.gov (United States)

Loikith, P. C.; Neelin, J. D.; Meyerson, J.

2017-12-01

Regions of shorter-than-Gaussian warm and cold side temperature distribution tails are shown to occur in spatially coherent patterns in the current climate. Under such conditions, warming may be manifested in more complex ways than if the underlying distribution were close to Gaussian. For example, under a uniform warm shift, the simplest prototype for future warming, a location with a short warm side tail would experience a greater increase in extreme warm exceedances compared to if the distribution were Gaussian. Similarly, for a location with a short cold side tail, a uniform warm shift would result in a rapid decrease in extreme cold exceedances. Both scenarios carry major societal and environmental implications including but not limited to negative impacts on human and ecosystem health, agriculture, and the economy. It is therefore important for climate models to be able to realistically reproduce short tails in simulations of historical climate in order to boost confidence in projections of future temperature extremes. Overall, climate models contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project capture many of the principal observed regions of short tails. This suggests the underlying dynamics and physics occur on scales resolved by the models, and helps build confidence in model projections of extremes. Furthermore, most GCMs show more rapid changes in exceedances of extreme temperature thresholds in regions of short tails. Results therefore suggest that the shape of the tails of the underlying temperature distribution is an indicator of how rapidly a location will experience changes to extreme temperature occurrence under future warming.

Nowhere to Go but Up: Impacts of Climate Change on Demographics of a Short-Range Endemic (Crotalus willardi obscurus in the Sky-Islands of Southwestern North America.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark A Davis

Full Text Available Biodiversity elements with narrow niches and restricted distributions (i.e., 'short range endemics,' SREs are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The New Mexico Ridge-nosed Rattlesnake (Crotalus willardi obscurus, CWO, an SRE listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act within three sky islands of southwestern North America, is constrained at low elevation by drought and at high elevation by wildfire. We combined long-term recapture and molecular data with demographic and niche modeling to gauge its climate-driven status, distribution, and projected longevity. The largest population (Animas is numerically constricted (N = 151, with few breeding adults (Nb = 24 and an elevated inbreeding coefficient (ΔF = 0.77; 100 years. Mean home range (0.07 km2 is significantly smaller compared to other North American rattlesnakes, and movements are within, not among sky islands. Demographic values, when gauged against those displayed by other endangered/Red-Listed reptiles [e.g., Loggerhead Sea Turtle (Caretta caretta], are either comparable or markedly lower. Survival rate differs significantly between genders (femaledemographics, a situation comparable to that of the European Adder (Vipera berus, a conservation icon in southern Sweden. Genetic rescue, a management approach successfully employed in similar situations, is ill advised in this situation due to climate-driven habitat change in the sky islands. CWO is a rare organism in a unique environment, with a conserved niche and a predisposition towards extinction. It is a bellwether for

Migration Component in the Contemporary Demographic Development of Rijeka and the Coastal Area of Primorje-Gorski Kotar County

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan Lajić

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The significance of migration in the contemporary demographic development of Rijeka and its coastal area is discussed in the paper. The analysis has shown that the City of Rijeka presents a demographically regressive area from which the deconcentration of population, mainly to suburban areas, is taking place. At the same time, the Littoral is the area of demographic growth as a result of high immigration rates, while natural demographic trends are negative; however, this does not have such intensity as in the case of the urban population of Rijeka. The comparison of vital index and migration data indicates a high degree of correlation between immigration and natural change in population so that settlements in the nearer gravitation area, being the space of strong in-migration between the 1990s and 2000s, shows distinct demographic growth and positive population bio-dynamics. Compared with them, settlements in the broader gravitational area have weaker intensity of permanent population resettlement as well as considerably unfavourable total and natural population trends. Based on the established demographic situation, population forecasts have been made for the years 2021 and 2031 indicating continued depopulation processes in the macro-regional centre of Rijeka and further demographic progression in the coastal area.

Evaluating the demographic buffering hypothesis with vital rates estimated for Weddell seals from 30years of mark-recapture data

Science.gov (United States)

Rotella, J.J.; Link, W.A.; Chambert, T.; Stauffer, G.E.; Garrott, R.A.

2012-01-01

1.Life-history theory predicts that those vital rates that make larger contributions to population growth rate ought to be more strongly buffered against environmental variability than are those that are less important. Despite the importance of the theory for predicting demographic responses to changes in the environment, it is not yet known how pervasive demographic buffering is in animal populations because the validity of most existing studies has been called into question because of methodological deficiencies. 2.We tested for demographic buffering in the southern-most breeding mammal population in the world using data collected from 5558 known-age female Weddell seals over 30years. We first estimated all vital rates simultaneously with mark-recapture analysis and then estimated process variance and covariance in those rates using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. We next calculated the population growth rate's sensitivity to changes in each of the vital rates and tested for evidence of demographic buffering by comparing properly scaled values of sensitivity and process variance in vital rates. 3.We found evidence of positive process covariance between vital rates, which indicates that all vital rates are affected in the same direction by changes in annual environment. Despite the positive correlations, we found strong evidence that demographic buffering occurred through reductions in variation in the vital rates to which population growth rate was most sensitive. Process variation in vital rates was inversely related to sensitivity measures such that variation was greatest in breeding probabilities, intermediate for survival rates of young animals and lowest for survival rates of older animals. 4.Our work contributes to a small but growing set of studies that have used rigorous methods on long-term, detailed data to investigate demographic responses to environmental variation. The information from these studies improves our understanding of life

Evaluating the demographic buffering hypothesis with vital rates estimated for Weddell seals from 30 years of mark-recapture data.

Science.gov (United States)

Rotella, Jay J; Link, William A; Chambert, Thierry; Stauffer, Glenn E; Garrott, Robert A

2012-01-01

1. Life-history theory predicts that those vital rates that make larger contributions to population growth rate ought to be more strongly buffered against environmental variability than are those that are less important. Despite the importance of the theory for predicting demographic responses to changes in the environment, it is not yet known how pervasive demographic buffering is in animal populations because the validity of most existing studies has been called into question because of methodological deficiencies. 2. We tested for demographic buffering in the southern-most breeding mammal population in the world using data collected from 5558 known-age female Weddell seals over 30 years. We first estimated all vital rates simultaneously with mark-recapture analysis and then estimated process variance and covariance in those rates using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. We next calculated the population growth rate's sensitivity to changes in each of the vital rates and tested for evidence of demographic buffering by comparing properly scaled values of sensitivity and process variance in vital rates. 3. We found evidence of positive process covariance between vital rates, which indicates that all vital rates are affected in the same direction by changes in annual environment. Despite the positive correlations, we found strong evidence that demographic buffering occurred through reductions in variation in the vital rates to which population growth rate was most sensitive. Process variation in vital rates was inversely related to sensitivity measures such that variation was greatest in breeding probabilities, intermediate for survival rates of young animals and lowest for survival rates of older animals. 4. Our work contributes to a small but growing set of studies that have used rigorous methods on long-term, detailed data to investigate demographic responses to environmental variation. The information from these studies improves our understanding of life

A population-based longitudinal study on the implications of demographics on future blood supply.

Science.gov (United States)

Greinacher, Andreas; Weitmann, Kerstin; Lebsa, Anne; Alpen, Ulf; Gloger, Doris; Stangenberg, Wolfgang; Kiefel, Volker; Hoffmann, Wolfgang

2016-12-01

Changes in demographics with increases in older age groups and decreases in younger age groups imply an increased demand for blood transfusions paralleled by a decrease in the population eligible for blood donation. However, more restrictive transfusion triggers and the patient blood management initiative also reduce the demand for red blood cells (RBCs). Eastern Germany is a model region for the impact of demographic changes, which manifest in this region approximately 10 years earlier than in other regions due to the 50% birth rate decline after 1989. We report the 2010 longitudinal 5-year follow-up of the study assessing all whole blood donations and RBC transfusions in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania. We compared the projections that were made 5 years ago with: 1) the current age structure of the blood donor and transfusion recipient populations and 2) its impact on blood demand and blood donation numbers in specific age groups. Transfusion rates were lower and blood donation rates were higher than predicted in 2005. Although transfusion rates/1000 decreased in nearly all age groups, the overall annual transfusion rate increased to 66.4 RBC units/1000 (in 2005, 62.2/1000) due to the absolute increase in the elderly population. Despite a 7.4% decline in the population 18 to 65 years of age, whole blood donations increased by 11.7% between 2005 and 2010, but thereafter decreased by 21% (first-time donors by 39.4%), reflecting the effect of the post-1990 birth rate decline on the donor population. Changes in demography and medical practice impact the delicate balance between available blood supply and potential future transfusion needs. In times of pronounced demographic changes, regular monitoring of the blood demand and age structure of blood recipients and donors is required to allow strategic planning to prevent blood shortages or overproduction. © 2016 AABB.

A big data management platform for rapidly changing environments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zahedi, P.

2014-01-01

Big data is now a reality. Storing, managing, and analyzing very large amount of data is a common challenge in the world of technology where digital content is rapidly growing. In recent years, FEI advanced electron microscopes, with their unsurpassed magnification and resolving power brought an

Changes in Attitude towards Gender Inequality in the

OpenAIRE

Vakil Ahmadi

2013-01-01

Introduction Gender inequality stems from social factors in each society. In theories of gender inequality, it has been assumed that family role in reproduction of gender inequality is of crucial importance (Bourdieu 2001, Chaftez 1999, dyson 2001). Demographic transition is one of the factors in the structure of family changes in recent century. Demographic transition is applied to changes from high levels of mortality and fertility to low levels (Lucas & meyer 2002). Demographic transit...

Demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions: are they relevant to population health patterns in Africa?

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Barthélémy Kuate Defo

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Background: Studies of trends in population changes and epidemiological profiles in the developing world have overwhelmingly relied upon the concepts of demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions, even though their usefulness in describing and understanding population and health trends in developing countries has been repeatedly called into question. The issue is particularly relevant for the study of population health patterns in Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, as the history and experience there differs substantially from that of Western Europe and North America, for which these concepts were originally developed. Objective: The aim of this study is two-fold: to review and clarify any distinction between the concepts of demographic transition, epidemiological transition and health transition and to identify summary indicators of population health to test how well these concepts apply in Africa. Results: Notwithstanding the characteristically diverse African context, Africa is a continent of uncertainties and emergencies where discontinuities and interruptions of health, disease, and mortality trends reflect the enduring fragility and instability of countries and the vulnerabilities of individuals and populations in the continent. Africa as a whole remains the furthest behind the world's regions in terms of health improvements and longevity, as do its sub-Saharan African regions and societies specifically. This study documents: 1 theoretically and empirically the similarities and differences between the demographic transition, epidemiological transition, and health transition; 2 simple summary indicators that can be used to evaluate their descriptive and predictive features; 3 marked disparities in the onset and pace of variations and divergent trends in health, disease, and mortality patterns as well as fertility and life expectancy trajectories among African countries and regions over the past 60 years; 4 the rapid decline in infant

Demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions: are they relevant to population health patterns in Africa?

Science.gov (United States)

Kuate Defo, Barthélémy

2014-01-01

Background Studies of trends in population changes and epidemiological profiles in the developing world have overwhelmingly relied upon the concepts of demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions, even though their usefulness in describing and understanding population and health trends in developing countries has been repeatedly called into question. The issue is particularly relevant for the study of population health patterns in Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, as the history and experience there differs substantially from that of Western Europe and North America, for which these concepts were originally developed. Objective The aim of this study is two-fold: to review and clarify any distinction between the concepts of demographic transition, epidemiological transition and health transition and to identify summary indicators of population health to test how well these concepts apply in Africa. Results Notwithstanding the characteristically diverse African context, Africa is a continent of uncertainties and emergencies where discontinuities and interruptions of health, disease, and mortality trends reflect the enduring fragility and instability of countries and the vulnerabilities of individuals and populations in the continent. Africa as a whole remains the furthest behind the world's regions in terms of health improvements and longevity, as do its sub-Saharan African regions and societies specifically. This study documents: 1) theoretically and empirically the similarities and differences between the demographic transition, epidemiological transition, and health transition; 2) simple summary indicators that can be used to evaluate their descriptive and predictive features; 3) marked disparities in the onset and pace of variations and divergent trends in health, disease, and mortality patterns as well as fertility and life expectancy trajectories among African countries and regions over the past 60 years; 4) the rapid decline in infant mortality and gains

Organizational Adaptation to the Rapidly Changing External Environment: A Case Study of Strategic Marketing at Notre Dame College in Ohio

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Shawn M.

2012-01-01

This thesis examined the role of strategic marketing in organizational adaptation to a rapidly changing and competitive external environment among institutions of higher education. Colleges and universities adapt to external pressures as open systems operating within a broader external environment (Bess & Dee, 2008; Keller, 1983). How does…

Changes of marital behavior and family patterns in post-socialist countries: Delayed, incomplete or specific second demographic transition?

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Petrović Mina

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The paper starts by questioning the theory of second demographic transition (SDT and its universal relevance in the field of marriage behavior and family organization in low fertility context, arguing for more differentiated approaches. With an aim to illustrate the contextual specifics of post-socialist countries in general and of Serbia in particular, the author claims that analyzed changes have not just been delayed or incomplete in comparison to more developed European countries, but shaped by specific modernization processes, which led to rationally developed strategies in overcoming structural risks, although, without ideational changes typical to the theory of SDT. Slow changes in marital behavior and family organization in Serbia are illustrated in recent sociological (empirical research findings. The perceived changes are linked to specific structural risks (war, slow transformation and enduring economic hardships, weak state and low trust in institutions, etc and value characteristics (persistence of materialism and traditionalism, but with increasing ambivalence. The connection between structural and ideational changes is considered through social stratification variable by relying on Coale's model on necessary preconditions for behavioral changes as well as on social deprivation concept. Having in mind upper social strata (more educated and better off, the value changes precede the behavioral that are adapted to economic uncertainty, which still force more traditional marital and family patterns. Therefore, there is a rank of different options, from extended family (for a short period at the beginning of marriage or after divorce to separated leaving (of married partners in parental households (due to refusing the extended family option thus creating quite specific "living apart together" form, combined with dominant strategy of prolonging the marriage. Hence, for upper social strata, marriage is still a universal but negotiable

Earning and caring: demographic change and policy implications

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Roderic Beaujot

2002-12-01

activities, we contrast theoretical orientations that see advantages to a division of labour or complementary roles, in comparison to orientations that see less risk and greater companionship in a collaborative model based on sharing paid and unpaid work, or co-providing and co-parenting. It is important to look both inside and outside of families, or at the changing gendered links between earning and caring, to understand change both in families and in the work world. It is proposed that equal opportunity by gender has advanced further in the public sphere associated with education and work, than in the private family sphere associated with everyday life. Time-use data indicate that, on average, men carry their weight in terms of total productive time (paid plus unpaid work, but that women make much more of the accommodations between family and work. Fertility is likely to be lowest in societies that offer women equal opportunity in the public sphere but where families remain traditional in terms of the division of work. Policies are discussed that would reduce the dependency between spouses, and encourage a greater common ground between men and women in earning and caring.

Rapid Modulation of Aromatase Activity in the Vertebrate Brain

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Thierry D. Charlier

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Numerous steroid hormones, including 17β-estradiol (E2, activate rapid and transient cellular, physiological, and behavioral changes in addition to their well-described genomic effects. Aromatase is the key-limiting enzyme in the production of estrogens, and the rapid modulation of this enzymatic activity could produce rapid changes in local E2 concentrations. The mechanisms that might mediate such rapid enzymatic changes are not fully understood but are currently under intense scrutiny. Recent studies in our laboratory indicate that brain aromatase activity is rapidly inhibited by an increase in intracellular calcium concentration resulting from potassium-induced depolarization or from the activation of glutamatergic receptors. Phosphorylating conditions also reduce aromatase activity within minutes, and this inhibition is blocked by the addition of multiple protein kinase inhibitors. This rapid modulation of aromatase activity by phosphorylating conditions is a general mechanism observed in different cell types and tissues derived from a variety of species, including human aromatase expressed in various cell lines. Phosphorylation processes affect aromatase itself and do not involve changes in aromatase protein concentration. The control of aromatase activity by multiple kinases suggests that several amino acids must be concomitantly phosphorylated to modify enzymatic activity but site-directed mutagenesis of several amino acids alone or in combination has not to date revealed the identity of the targeted residue(s. Altogether, the phosphorylation processes affecting aromatase activity provide a new general mechanism by which the concentration of estrogens can be rapidly altered in the brain.

A unified framework of demographic time

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Riffe, Tim; Schöley, Jonas; Villavicencio, Francisco

Demographic thought and practice is largely conditioned by the Lexis diagram, a two-dimensional graphical representation of the identity between age, period, and birth cohort. This relationship does not account for remaining years of life or other related time measures, whose use in demographic...... research is both underrepresented and incompletely situated. We describe a three-dimensional relationship between six different measures of demographic time: chronological age, time to death, lifespan, time of birth, time of death, and period. We describe four identities among subsets of these six measures......, and a full identity that relates the six of them. One of these identities is the age-period-cohort identity, while the other three are relatively novel. We provide a topological overview of the diagrams that pertain to these identities. The 3-d geometric representation of the full six-way identity...

Rapid Land Cover Map Updates Using Change Detection and Robust Random Forest Classifiers

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Konrad J. Wessels

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The paper evaluated the Landsat Automated Land Cover Update Mapping (LALCUM system designed to rapidly update a land cover map to a desired nominal year using a pre-existing reference land cover map. The system uses the Iteratively Reweighted Multivariate Alteration Detection (IRMAD to identify areas of change and no change. The system then automatically generates large amounts of training samples (n > 1 million in the no-change areas as input to an optimized Random Forest classifier. Experiments were conducted in the KwaZulu-Natal Province of South Africa using a reference land cover map from 2008, a change mask between 2008 and 2011 and Landsat ETM+ data for 2011. The entire system took 9.5 h to process. We expected that the use of the change mask would improve classification accuracy by reducing the number of mislabeled training data caused by land cover change between 2008 and 2011. However, this was not the case due to exceptional robustness of Random Forest classifier to mislabeled training samples. The system achieved an overall accuracy of 65%–67% using 22 detailed classes and 72%–74% using 12 aggregated national classes. “Water”, “Plantations”, “Plantations—clearfelled”, “Orchards—trees”, “Sugarcane”, “Built-up/dense settlement”, “Cultivation—Irrigated” and “Forest (indigenous” had user’s accuracies above 70%. Other detailed classes (e.g., “Low density settlements”, “Mines and Quarries”, and “Cultivation, subsistence, drylands” which are required for operational, provincial-scale land use planning and are usually mapped using manual image interpretation, could not be mapped using Landsat spectral data alone. However, the system was able to map the 12 national classes, at a sufficiently high level of accuracy for national scale land cover monitoring. This update approach and the highly automated, scalable LALCUM system can improve the efficiency and update rate of regional land

Evaluation of Socio-Demographic Characteristics of HIV/AIDS ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Evaluation of Socio-Demographic Characteristics of HIV/AIDS Patients in a Tertiary Hospital. ... Journal of Pharmaceutical and Allied Sciences. Journal Home ... Keywords: Socio-demographics, HIV/AID, Retrospective, Teaching hospital ...

Rapid Aminoglycoside NP Test for Rapid Detection of Multiple Aminoglycoside Resistance in Enterobacteriaceae.

Science.gov (United States)

Nordmann, Patrice; Jayol, Aurélie; Dobias, Jan; Poirel, Laurent

2017-04-01

The rapid aminoglycoside NP (Nordmann/Poirel) test was developed to rapidly identify multiple aminoglycoside (AG) resistance in Enterobacteriaceae It is based on the detection of the glucose metabolism related to enterobacterial growth in the presence of a defined concentration of amikacin plus gentamicin. Formation of acid metabolites was evidenced by a color change (orange to yellow) of the red phenol pH indicator. The rapid aminoglycoside NP test was evaluated by using bacterial colonies of 18 AG-resistant isolates producing 16S rRNA methylases, 20 AG-resistant isolates expressing AG-modifying enzymes (acetyl-, adenyl-, and phosphotransferases), and 10 isolates susceptible to AG. Its sensitivity and specificity were 100% and 97%, respectively, compared to the broth dilution method, which was taken as the gold standard for determining aminoglycoside resistance. The test is inexpensive, rapid (<2 h), and implementable worldwide. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Threshold and resilience management of coupled urbanization and water environmental system in the rapidly changing coastal region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Yangfan; Li, Yi; Wu, Wei

2016-01-01

The concept of thresholds shows important implications for environmental and resource management. Here we derived potential landscape thresholds which indicated abrupt changes in water quality or the dividing points between exceeding and failing to meet national surface water quality standards for a rapidly urbanizing city on the Eastern Coast in China. The analysis of landscape thresholds was based on regression models linking each of the seven water quality variables to each of the six landscape metrics for this coupled land-water system. We found substantial and accelerating urban sprawl at the suburban areas between 2000 and 2008, and detected significant nonlinear relations between water quality and landscape pattern. This research demonstrated that a simple modeling technique could provide insights on environmental thresholds to support more-informed decision making in land use, water environmental and resilience management. - Graphical abstract: Fig. Threshold models and resilience management for water quality. Display Omitted - Highlights: • Coupling urbanization and water environmental system. • Developing threshold models of the coupled land-water systems. • Nonlinear relations between water quality variables and landscape metrics. • Enhancing resilience management of coastal rapid urbanization. - We develop environmental threshold models and provide their implications on resilience management for a coupled land-water system with rapid urbanization.

Neolithisation of the Aegean and Southeast Europe during the 6600–6000 calBC period of Rapid Climate Change

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Bernhard Weninger

2014-12-01

Full Text Available In extension of the recently established ‘Rapid Climate Change (RCC Neolithisation Model’ (Clare 2013, in the present paper we demonstrate the existence of a remarkable coincidence between the exact (decadel-scale entry and departure dates of the Neolithic into/from the Aegean (~6600/6050 calBC with begin/end of RCC-conditions.

Newer Demographic Development of the Settlement of Murter

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Sonja Podgorelec

1998-10-01

Full Text Available Murter is the largest settlement on the same-named island and also in the entire Šibenik archipelago. As opposed to most of the settlements on the island, its population was less involved in earlier emigration flows, whereas newer emigration began to effect Murter only after the sixties. The effect of the depopulation period is visible in the changes of the age-sex structure, where can be seen primarily in ageing of the population and a disproportion in the sex ratio. Yet it can be confirmed that the settlement of Murter has not such an unfavourable demographic situation as do most Dalmatian islands. A slightly falling birth rate can be noticed, as well as a slight increase in the death rate. The demographic perspective of this population is relatively favourable (due to an expected development of tourism, development of agriculture and trades, nautical infrastructures etc., if addition emigration factors will not come into play. Based on a multiple-criteria evaluation of developmental levels, the island of Murter, primarily due to the central position of the settlement Murter, is ranked 11th out of 47 Croatian islands. The reason is that all higher ranked islands also have a significantly larger area.

Condition Help: A Patient- and Family-Initiated Rapid Response System.

Science.gov (United States)

Eden, Elizabeth L; Rack, Laurie L; Chen, Ling-Wan; Bump, Gregory M

2017-03-01

Rapid response teams (RRTs) help in delivering safe, timely care. Typically they are activated by clinicians using specific parameters. Allowing patients and families to activate RRTs is a novel intervention. The University of Pittsburgh Medical Center developed and implemented a patient- and family-initiated rapid response system called Condition Help (CH). When the CH system is activated, a patient care liaison or an on-duty administrator meets bedside with the unit charge nurse to address the patient's concerns. In this study, we collected demographic data, call reasons, call designations (safety or nonsafety), and outcome information for all CH calls made during the period January 2012 through June 2015. Two hundred forty patients/family members made 367 CH calls during the study period. Most calls were made by patients (76.8%) rather than family members (21.8%). Of the 240 patients, 43 (18%) made multiple calls; their calls accounted for 46.3% of all calls (170/367). Inadequate pain control was the reason for the call in most cases (48.2%), followed by dissatisfaction with staff (12.5%). The majority of calls involved nonsafety issues (83.4%) rather than safety issues (11.4%). In 41.4% of cases, a change in care was made. Patient- and family-initiated RRTs are designed to engage patients and families in providing safer care. In the CH system, safety issues are identified, but the majority of calls involve nonsafety issues. Journal of Hospital Medicine 2017;12:157-161. © 2017 Society of Hospital Medicine

Recent demographic trends in the northern borderland between Italy and Slovenia: Stabilization or further redistribution of population?

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Josipovič Damir

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The contribution presents findings from the research on a constitution of new ethnic identities in Alps-Adriatic region. The key question dealt here with was to which extent the recent demographical processes impact the peripheral, mountainous, and ethnically specific cross-border region between Slovenia and Italy. In lay and professional discourse there is still omnipresent mentality of extinguishing Slovene minority in Italy. Applying various demographical methods the article resolves the demographical processes and quantifies the extent of the local Slovene speakers. The author argues that the recent demographical processes of heavy depopulation tend to stabilize towards stagnation. Depopulation is stronger in the Slovenian part of the region, though the traditional Slovene-speaking areas in Italy aren’t as threatened as the adjacent Friulian areas. New migration trends along with the generally low fertility contribute to changes in traditional dualistic structure and bring refreshment to remote parts of the border region as well.

Water Quality Changes during Rapid Urbanization in the Shenzhen River Catchment: An Integrated View of Socio-Economic and Infrastructure Development

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Hua-peng Qin

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Surface water quality deterioration is a serious problem in many rapidly urbanizing catchments in developing countries. There is currently a lack of studies that quantify water quality variation (deterioration or otherwise due to both socio-economic and infrastructure development in a catchment. This paper investigates the causes of water quality changes over the rapid urbanization period of 1985–2009 in the Shenzhen River catchment, China and examines the changes in relation to infrastructure development and socio-economic policies. The results indicate that the water quality deteriorated rapidly during the earlier urbanization stages before gradually improving over recent years, and that rapid increases in domestic discharge were the major causes of water quality deterioration. Although construction of additional wastewater infrastructure can significantly improve water quality, it was unable to dispose all of the wastewater in the catchment. However, it was found that socio-economic measures can significantly improve water quality by decreasing pollutant load per gross regional production (GRP or increasing labor productivity. Our findings suggest that sustainable development during urbanization is possible, provided that: (1 the wastewater infrastructure should be constructed timely and revitalized regularly in line with urbanization, and wastewater treatment facilities should be upgraded to improve their nitrogen and phosphorus removal efficiencies; (2 administrative regulation policies, economic incentives and financial policies should be implemented to encourage industries to prevent or reduce the pollution at the source; (3 the environmental awareness and education level of local population should be increased; (4 planners from various sectors should consult each other and adapt an integrated planning approach for socio-economic and wastewater infrastructure development.

Environmental imperatives reconsidered: demographic crises in western North America during the medieval climatic anomaly.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, T L; Brown, G M; Raab, L M; McVickar, J L; Spaulding, W G; Kennett, D J; York, A; Wlaker, P L

1999-04-01

Review of late Holocene paleoenvironmental and cultural sequences from four regions of western North America show striking correlations between drought and changes in subsistence, population, exchange, health, and interpersonal violence during the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (A.D. 800-1350). While ultimate causality is difficult to identify in the archaeological record, synchrony of the environmental and cultural changes and the negative character of many human responses--increased interpersonal violence, deterioration of long-distance exchange relationships, and regional abandonments--suggest widespread demographic crises caused by decreased environmental productivity. The medieval droughts occurred at a unique juncture in the demographic history of western North America when unusually large populations of both hunter-gathers and agriculturalists had evolved highly intensified economies that put them in unprecedented ecological jeopardy. Long-term patterns in the archaeological record are inconsistent with the predicted outcomes of simple adaptation or continuous economic intensification, suggesting that in this instance environmental dynamics played a major role in cultural transformations across a wide expanse of western North America among groups with diverse subsistence strategies. These events suggest that environment should not be overlooked as a potential cause of prehistoric culture change.

The role of demographic compensation theory in incidental take assessments for endangered species

Science.gov (United States)

McGowan, Conor P.; Ryan, Mark R.; Runge, Michael C.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Cochrane, Jean Fitts

2011-01-01

Many endangered species laws provide exceptions to legislated prohibitions through incidental take provisions as long as take is the result of unintended consequences of an otherwise legal activity. These allowances presumably invoke the theory of demographic compensation, commonly applied to harvested species, by allowing limited harm as long as the probability of the species' survival or recovery is not reduced appreciably. Demographic compensation requires some density-dependent limits on survival or reproduction in a species' annual cycle that can be alleviated through incidental take. Using a population model for piping plovers in the Great Plains, we found that when the population is in rapid decline or when there is no density dependence, the probability of quasi-extinction increased linearly with increasing take. However, when the population is near stability and subject to density-dependent survival, there was no relationship between quasi-extinction probability and take rates. We note however, that a brief examination of piping plover demography and annual cycles suggests little room for compensatory capacity. We argue that a population's capacity for demographic compensation of incidental take should be evaluated when considering incidental allowances because compensation is the only mechanism whereby a population can absorb the negative effects of take without incurring a reduction in the probability of survival in the wild. With many endangered species there is probably little known about density dependence and compensatory capacity. Under these circumstances, using multiple system models (with and without compensation) to predict the population's response to incidental take and implementing follow-up monitoring to assess species response may be valuable in increasing knowledge and improving future decision making.

Demographic Change and the New (and Not so New) Challenges for Latino Education

Science.gov (United States)

Gándara, Patricia; Mordechay, Kfir

2017-01-01

Latino students now make up 1 in 4 public school students in the United States and are a rapidly growing population in nontraditional settlement areas. Yet persistent racial and ethnic disparities in educational achievement and attainment are cause for grave concern, as high school graduation and postsecondary-education are increasingly necessary…

SOME CONSIDERATIONS ON THE DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE OF MIGRANTS FROM BOTOSANI COUNTY

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Petru BUNDUC

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This study aims to analyse the structural particularities of migrants in Botosani County, concerning the presentation model of the structure by age and sex. This is perhaps one of the most important elements in finding explanations and motivations of population leaving from county. However, demographic changes of this structure clearly present visible consequences such as increasing proportion of elderly people and reducing youth people, but also by reducing the active workforce.

Building Adaptive Capacity in Changing Social-Ecological Systems: Integrating Knowledge in Communal Land-Use Planning in the Peruvian Amazon

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Lily O. Rodríguez

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Building resilient sustainable social-ecological systems (SES requires communities to enhance their adaptive capacities. Communal participative land-use planning (Zonificación Participativa Comunal—ZPC is a tool designed for communities to integrating local and scientific knowledge to sustainably organize and manage their SES. Between 2006 and 2011, a ZPC was developed with communities in the buffer zone of Cordillera Azul National Park (Peru, where rapid demographic changes are converting pre-montane seasonally dry forest into agricultural land. Herein, we analyse how the ZPC enhanced adaptive capacity, enabling the SES to cope with environmental, political and economic changes. Based on qualitative, semi-structured interviews, communities are analysed along their capacities in the dimensions social capital, learning, adaptive management and governance. An analysis of yearly high-resolution forest cover data supports our findings. Deforestation activities in biologically sensitive zones decreased rapidly during the time of the ZPC implementation. We find that particularly the long-term presence of the bridging institution and the continuous testing and reflection of the integrated “hybrid knowledge” enabled communities to develop adaptive capacities. The analysis of ZPC our results reveals the enabling conditions for promoting the learning process to develop a sustainable land-use management in the context of migration and rapid changes.

A Statistical Assessment of Demographic Bonus towards Poverty Alleviation

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Jamal Abdul Nasir

2011-09-01

Full Text Available The shift of birth and death rates from high to low level in any population is referred as demographic transition. Mechanically, the transition of a society creates more working member of its own population commonly called demographic bonus. This articleempirically explores the realistic soundness of demographic bonus in reducing the poverty level of the society. Three contrasting regions namely Eastern Asia, Central America and Oceania were selected for analytical purposes. The findings indicate that Eastern Asia and Oceania are currently facing the end of their transition whereas theCentral America is lagged behind in transition. Central America due to last runner in transition race is the sustained recipient of its own demographic bonus by the year 2030.On the basis of three mechanisms namely: labour supply, savings and human capital, the Eastern Asian region is found to be successful beneficiary of its own demographic gift which concludes that many million people have escaped from poverty. Under the right policy environment on the above three mechanisms, Eastern Asia experience indicates the realistic contribution of demographic bonus to reduce poverty.

Food security and environmental degradation in northern Nigeria: demographic perspectives.

Science.gov (United States)

Lockwood, M

1991-07-01

The Malthusian controversy about the causes of environmental change and food insecurity in Hausaland in northern Nigeria is examined. The argument is irresolvable based on available data at the macro level. The individual and household level are appropriate for answering the question about how high density populations survive on a savannah. To understand population pressure in Hausaland, it is important to read Malthus very carefully and to understand the existing demographic structure in which economic and kinship relations support high fertility even where land is scarce. Demographic responses vary with economic strata. Policies ignore individual level differences. Since 1953, the densely populated areas of Sokoto, Katsina, Zaria, and Kano have spread in an area that is largely dry with a moderate-to-high risk of desertification. Food insecurity exists not only in times of drought, but also annually in the form of chronic shortages of staples for poor farmers. Average land holdings/capita have become smaller. Population pressure has also contributed to shifts in land use. Food prices have increased. Possible explanations include 1) the drought and the oil boom have a greater impact on environmental change and food insecurity and rural Hausa farmers have responded by raising yields, managing tree resources, and practicing soil conservation and 2) an independent source of income from non-agricultural activities is an essential part of the economy. The relationship among population pressure, land shortage, and food insecurity is complex. It is inaccurate to label Hausa as subsistence farmers, when trading in grain is an important enterprise. The role that commercialization of agriculture plays in food insecurity is discussed. Malthusian disaster is not imminent. The proximate determinants of fertility, birth spacing practices and infertility, should lead to high fertility rates, but in this case they do not. Determinants responsive to economic factors tend to be

Socio-demographic, Epidemiological and Environmental Determinants of Acute Gastroenteritis in Western India

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Mihir Prafulbhai Rupani

2016-03-01

Conclusions: Socio-demographic factors (higher socio-economic status, epidemiological correlates (change in taste of water, another family member been affected with acute gastroenteritis and eating outside food and environmental determinants (waste disposal in a common dump and waste accumulation around house significantly determines the occurrence of cases of acute gastroenteritis. Keywords: case-control studies;diarrhea; epidemiologic determinants; gastroenteritis; social determinants of health. | PubMed

[Demographic influence on economic stability: the United States experience].

Science.gov (United States)

Easterlin, R A; Wachter, M; Wachter, S M

1978-01-01

Up to the 1930s the international migration rate into the U.S. was very high, while birth and mortality rates had little variation; migration was, therefore, the principal responsible for population growth rate. Migration cycles were induced by economic conditions, and had, in their turn, important effects on economic feedback. The growing of urban areas, i.e., accelerated demand for new homes and urban services in general, prolonged the economic expansion. After World War 2 a new period opened in the relation between demographic and economic cycles. At the end of the 1950s the U.S. experienced a considerable growth in the number of people between 15-29, due to corresponding birth rate increase, which initiated around 1940. This marked difference in the relative number of young adults, or manpower, resulted in an economic situation relatively unfavorable. For the future a decrease in the relative number of young adults is expected, reflecting the decrease in birth rate experienced around 1960. If the U.S. should experience a new "baby boom" in the next few decades, radical changes in the demographic composition of manpower will have to be expected.

Life history tactics shape amphibians' demographic responses to the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Science.gov (United States)

Cayuela, Hugo; Joly, Pierre; Schmidt, Benedikt R; Pichenot, Julian; Bonnaire, Eric; Priol, Pauline; Peyronel, Olivier; Laville, Mathias; Besnard, Aurélien

2017-11-01

Over the last three decades, climate abnormalities have been reported to be involved in biodiversity decline by affecting population dynamics. A growing number of studies have shown that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences the demographic parameters of a wide range of plant and animal taxa in different ways. Life history theory could help to understand these different demographic responses to the NAO. Indeed, theory states that the impact of weather variation on a species' demographic traits should depend on its position along the fast-slow continuum. In particular, it is expected that NAO would have a higher impact on recruitment than on adult survival in slow species, while the opposite pattern is expected occur in fast species. To test these predictions, we used long-term capture-recapture datasets (more than 15,000 individuals marked from 1965 to 2015) on different surveyed populations of three amphibian species in Western Europe: Triturus cristatus, Bombina variegata, and Salamandra salamandra. Despite substantial intraspecific variation, our study revealed that these three species differ in their position on a slow-fast gradient of pace of life. Our results also suggest that the differences in life history tactics influence amphibian responses to NAO fluctuations: Adult survival was most affected by the NAO in the species with the fastest pace of life (T. cristatus), whereas recruitment was most impacted in species with a slower pace of life (B. variegata and S. salamandra). In the context of climate change, our findings suggest that the capacity of organisms to deal with future changes in NAO values could be closely linked to their position on the fast-slow continuum. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tensile behavior change depending on the microstructure of a Fe-Cu alloy produced from rapidly solidified powder