Sample records for rapid demographic change

  1. Changing demographics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vetter, B.M.


    This paper reports on changing population demographics, poor academic preparation for and a decreasing interest in engineering among college students which indicates possible shortages ahead, particularly among chemical and petroleum engineers. The talent pool for engineering must be enlarged to include women and minority men, if we are to ensure an adequate future supply for the U.S

  2. Demographic Change and Transport

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haustein, Sonja; Siren, Anu Kristiina; Framke, Elisabeth

    This report is the literature review on demographic changes and transport of Work Package 1 of the EU project CONSOL, “CONcerns and SOLutions – Road Safety in the Ageing Societies” (contract period: 2011-2013). The report is a state-of-the art report that combines current knowledge with new...

  3. Logistics Dynamics and Demographic Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klumpp, Matthias; Abidi, Hella; Bioly, Sascha; Buchkremer, Rüdiger; Ebener, Stefan; Sandhaus, Gregor; Freitag, Michael; Kotzab, Herbert; Pannek, Jürgen


    Change and dynamics in logistics are interestingly driven at the same time by external as well as internal forces. This contribution outlines a big data literature review methodology to overview recognizable external changes and analyzes the interaction of one major trend—demographic change—further

  4. Social demographic change and autism. (United States)

    Liu, Kayuet; Zerubavel, Noam; Bearman, Peter


    Parental age at child's birth--which has increased for U.S. children in the 1992-2000 birth cohorts--is strongly associated with an increased risk of autism. By turning a social demographic lens on the historical patterning of concordance among twin pairs, we identify a central mechanism for this association: de novo mutations, which are deletions, insertions, and duplications of DNA in the germ cells that are not present in the parents' DNA. Along the way, we show that a demographic eye on the rising prevalence of autism leads to three major discoveries. First, the estimated heritability of autism has been dramatically overstated. Second, heritability estimates can change over remarkably short periods of time because of increases in germ cell mutations. Third, social demographic change can yield genetic changes that, at the population level, combine to contribute to the increased prevalence of autism.

  5. Beyond demographics is destiny: understanding economic mitigation strategies for demographic change in China


    Judy, John B.


    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited The favorable demographics that have contributed to China’s rapid economic growth are changing. China’s working-age population is currently peaking and within two decades its overall population will begin to shrink. In addition to a shrinking working-age population, China will see an increase in the elderly population and a rising dependency ratio. This demographic change may have an economically significant impact. If China’s enormous...

  6. Demographic and Economic Changes and Postsecondary Education. (United States)

    Charner, Ivan

    The interaction of demographic and economic shifts has led to, and will continue to effect, changes in the postsecondary education system and institutions. Demographic shifts include aging of the population, more women in the paid labor force, and increased numbers of minorities. Economic shifts include the growth of the information sector,…

  7. Cultural innovations and demographic change. (United States)

    Richerson, Peter J; Boyd, Robert; Bettinger, Robert L


    Demography plays a large role in cultural evolution through its effects on the effective rate of innovation. If we assume that useful inventions are rare, then small isolated societies will have low rates of invention. In small populations, complex technology will tend to be lost as a result of random loss or incomplete transmission (the Tasmanian effect). Large populations have more inventors and are more resistant to loss by chance. If human populations can grow freely, then a population-technology-population positive feedback should occur such that human societies reach a stable growth path on which the rate of growth of technology is limited by the rate of invention. This scenario fits the Holocene to a first approximation, but the late Pleistocene is a great puzzle. Large-brained hominins existed in Africa and west Eurasia for perhaps 150,000 years with, at best, slow rates of technical innovation. The most sophisticated societies of the last glacial period appear after 50,000 years ago and were apparently restricted to west and north-central Eurasia and North Africa. These patterns have no simple, commonly accepted explanation. We argue that increased high-frequency climate change around 70,000-50,000 years ago may have tipped the balance between humans and their competitor-predators, such as lions and wolves, in favor of humans. At the same time, technically sophisticated hunters would tend to overharvest their prey. Perhaps the ephemeral appearance of complex tools and symbolic artifacts in Africa after 100,000 years ago resulted from hunting inventions that allowed human populations to expand temporarily before prey overexploitation led to human population and technology collapse. Sustained human populations of moderate size using distinctively advanced Upper Paleolithic artifacts may have existed in west Eurasia because cold, continental northeastern Eurasia-Beringia acted as a protected reserve for prey populations.

  8. Global demographic change and climate policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerlagh, Reyer; Jaimes, Richard; Motavasseli, Ali


    Between 1950 and 2017, world average life expectancy increased from below-50 to above-70, while the fertility rate dropped from 5 to about 2.5. We develop and calibrate an analytic climate-economy model with overlapping generations to study the effect of such demographic change on capital markets

  9. Changing demographics and shrinking engineering enrollments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vetter, B.M.


    This paper reports that changing U.S. population demographics, poor academic preparation, and a decreasing interest in engineering among college student indicate possible shortages ahead, particularly among chemical and petroleum engineers. If we are to ensure an adequate future supply for the U.S., the engineering talent pool must be enlarged to include women and minority men

  10. Demographically idiosyncratic responses to climate change and rapid Pleistocene diversification of the walnut genus Juglans (Juglandaceae) revealed by whole-genome sequences (United States)

    Wei-Ning Bai; Peng-Cheng Yan; Bo-Wen Zhang; Keith E. Woeste; Kui Lin; Da-Yong. Zhang


    Whether species demography and diversification are driven primarily by extrinsic environmental changes such as climatic oscillations in the Quaternary or by intrinsic biological interactions like coevolution between antagonists is a matter of active debate. In fact, their relative importance can be assessed by tracking past population fluctuations over considerable...

  11. Patterns of demographic change in the Americas. (United States)

    Ubelaker, D H


    Considerable scholarly debate has focused on the nature of demographic change in the Americas before and after 1492. Recent research on human skeletal samples and related archeological materials suggests that morbidity and mortality were increasing throughout much of the Western Hemisphere before 1492 in response to increased population density, increased sedentism, and changing subsistence. The evidence suggests that after 1492 population reduction was caused not by continental pandemics but by localized or regional epidemics augmented by social and economic disruption. The twentieth century has witnessed remarkable Native American population recovery, fueled both by improvements in health care and changing definitions of "being Indian."

  12. Simulation of Demographic Change in Palestinian Territories (United States)

    Sumour, M. A.; El-Astal, A. H.; Shabat, M. M.; Radwan, M. A.

    Mortality, birth rates and retirement play a major role in demographic changes. In most cases, mortality rates decreased in the past century without noticeable decrease in fertility rates, leading to a significant increase in population growth. In many poor countries like Palestinian Territories the number of births has fallen and the life expectancy increased. In this paper we concentrate on measuring, analyzing and extrapolating the age structure in Palestine a few decades ago into the future. A Fortran program has been designed and used for the simulation and analysis of our statistical data. This study of demographic change in Palestine has shown that Palestinians will have in future problems as the strongest age cohorts are the above-60-year olds. We therefore recommend the increase of both the retirement age and female employment.

  13. Running injuries - changing trends and demographics. (United States)

    Fields, Karl B


    Running injuries are common. Recently the demographic has changed, in that most runners in road races are older and injuries now include those more common in master runners. In particular, Achilles/calf injuries, iliotibial band injury, meniscus injury, and muscle injuries to the hamstrings and quadriceps represent higher percentages of the overall injury mix in recent epidemiologic studies compared with earlier ones. Evidence suggests that running mileage and previous injury are important predictors of running injury. Evidence-based research now helps guide the treatment of iliotibial band, patellofemoral syndrome, and Achilles tendinopathy. The use of topical nitroglycerin in tendinopathy and orthotics for the treatment of patellofemoral syndrome has moderate to strong evidence. Thus, more current knowledge about the changing demographics of runners and the application of research to guide treatment and, eventually, prevent running injury offers hope that clinicians can help reduce the high morbidity associated with long-distance running.

  14. Changing demographics: what to watch for. (United States)

    Morrison, P A


    Four broad demographic transformations: 1) the population's reconfiguration into smaller household units, especially those comprised of persons living alone; 2) changing employment patterns, notably the shift of married women into paid employment and the resulting proliferation of dual-earner families; 3) transformations in the population's age composition; and 4) the geography of growth in terms of regions that will gain or lose population--can be expected to have a profound impact on opportunities and challenges facing the business sector. The number of future households is projected to increase from 88.6 million in 1986 to 101.5 million by 1996. The sharpest gains will be among households headed by persons ranging in age from the late 30s to the early 50s. The fastest growth through the year 2000 is expected to occur in the Mountain states of the US. Business economists should be alert to these demographic analyses both to spot emerging growth markets and to identify long-term strategic issues, especially as the labor market changes. It will be increasingly important to differentiate time-sensitive from price-sensitive consumers.

  15. Population growth, demographic change, and cultural landscapes. (United States)

    Woodgate, G; Sage, C


    The inclusion of both ecological and socioeconomic components within landscapes makes possible the perception of the hierarchical character of landscape organization. A research approach is needed to conceptualize cultural landscapes as the product of interaction between society and nature. Richard Norgaard's 1984 paper on coevolutionary agricultural development attempts to meet this challenge. Coevolution is the interactive synthesis of natural and social mechanisms of change that characterize the relationship between social systems and ecosystems. The relationship between population, consumption, and environmental changes is complex. Currently industrialized countries present the biggest threat to global environmental resources. The issue of carrying capacity is the corollary of population and the environment. It is primarily the technological factor rather than population that needs to be controlled. The relationship between rich and poor countries is determined by superior economic power. An analysis of landscape change is made, tracing the coevolution of society and environment from the end of the feudal era and making comparisons with continental Europe. Over the years since 1945 the need to realize potential economies of scale has resulted in a wholesale loss of woodlands, hedgerows, and small ponds in the UK. In a global context the likely impacts of population growth and demographic change on landscapes will be influenced by such socioeconomic factors as technology and affluence; policies that ignore cause and effect; and the traditional tendency to treat the environment as a waste repository and a supply depot.

  16. Racial Diversity in the Suburbs: How Race-Neutral Responses to Demographic Change Perpetuate Inequity in Suburban School Districts (United States)

    Diem, Sarah; Welton, Anjalé D.; Frankenberg, Erica; Jellison Holme, Jennifer


    Suburbs across the US are experiencing dramatic demographic shifts, yet there is little research available on how suburban school districts are dealing with these changes. In this article, we examine the discourses surrounding race and demographic change in three suburban school districts that have been undergoing rapid demographic changes and…

  17. Experts Networks and the European Commission on Demographic Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seabrooke, Leonard; Tsingou, Eleni; Willers, Johann Ole

    experts on demographic change. Our findings suggest that on demographic change issues at the EU level, DG EMPL has taken the lead, while DG ECFIN is the secondary actor. Still, internal European Commission dynamics mean that the lead actor on demographic issues has less autonomy in articulating a funded......This paper examines who populates the expert and policy network around demographic change issues in Europe. We examine how competing policy departments in the European Commission Directorates-General (DGs) deal with the issue of Europe’s changing demography, as well as discuss the role of external...... and clear policy position on how to address them. As a consequence, there is little institutional memory and hardly a depository of activity on demographic change. While outside expertise comes primarily from demographers, and other scholars concerned with demographic change, they are primarily an academic...

  18. Demographic change in the northern forest (United States)

    Kenneth M. Johnson; Susan I. Stewart; Miranda H. Mockrin


    The Northern Forest spans more than 26 million acres across Maine, New Hampshire, New York, and Vermont. With densely settled urban cores, sprawling suburbs, struggling industrial and forest products towns, fast growing recreational areas, and isolated rural villages, the region includes many of the diverse strands that together compose the demographic fabric of the...

  19. Rapid, global demographic expansions after the origins of agriculture. (United States)

    Gignoux, Christopher R; Henn, Brenna M; Mountain, Joanna L


    The invention of agriculture is widely assumed to have driven recent human population growth. However, direct genetic evidence for population growth after independent agricultural origins has been elusive. We estimated population sizes through time from a set of globally distributed whole mitochondrial genomes, after separating lineages associated with agricultural populations from those associated with hunter-gatherers. The coalescent-based analysis revealed strong evidence for distinct demographic expansions in Europe, southeastern Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa within the past 10,000 y. Estimates of the timing of population growth based on genetic data correspond neatly to dates for the initial origins of agriculture derived from archaeological evidence. Comparisons of rates of population growth through time reveal that the invention of agriculture facilitated a fivefold increase in population growth relative to more ancient expansions of hunter-gatherers.

  20. Demographics and the Changing National Security Environment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library


    .... Long- term fertility trends, urbanization, migration, and changes in the ethnic composition and age profile of populations can influence the likelihood and nature of conflict among and within nations...

  1. Implications of Demographic Change for the Design of Retirement Programs. (United States)

    Biggs, John H.


    The influences that demographic changes may have on the design of private pension plans in the twenty-first century are examined. Major demographic factors to be considered include the aging of the population, declining mortality rate, potential for an even lower mortality rate, improved health for all ages and especially for older workers, and…

  2. The Changing Demographic Profile of the United States

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Shrestha, Laura B


    ...." The objective of this report is to highlight some of the demographic changes that have already occurred since 1950 and to illustrate how these and future trends will reshape the nation in the decades to come (through 2050...

  3. Demographic changes of the Visaginas town

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kavaliauskas, A.


    The youngest Lithuanian town surrounded by pine forest is situated at the shore of a picturesque lake of Visaginas. The level of radiation of the town and its suburbs doesn't prevail the standards due to the data given by the Lithuanian Department of Environmental Protection. A relatively small, hilly, green, full of lakes areas have all facilities for tourism and recreation. The town's birth is directly linked with the construction of the nuclear power plant. Great number of nuclear energy specialists came here with their families from the East. The specific character of the town determined the ethnic composition of its population. In 1994-1995 there were Russians (59%), Lithuanians (14%), Byelorussian s (11%), Poles (6%), other nationalities (10%). The number of the residents in Visaginas is stable now with a slight tendency of increasing on the number of women. In 1990 the population of Visaginas was 33192, the women comprised 566 more in number than the men, in 1997 of its 33508 people were 1172 more women than the men. Recent Lithuanian social-economic changes greatly influenced the number of inhabitants of the town. In 1987, 3567 new inhabitants arrived to Visaginas and 1588 moved out. The inhabitants who had arrived to Visaginas in 1987 -1996 were 5,5 times less than in 1987, and moved out 5,4 times less also. One half of the inhabitants who moved from Visaginas went abroad. It shows that the mechanic and social mobility of the town's population decreased too. From 1989 to 1996 the main factor in changing the population number was not the natural increase of it but its migration. Then the natural increase lowered 4,8 times. The economic situation of the town is complex and becoming worse. The town was built as a satellite of the power plant. When the construction of the third block was stopped, the building of many objects was not completed. Other industries didn't develop in Visaginas. Most unemployed are the inhabitants at the age of 19-49 (87,9%). The

  4. 'Fair innings' in the face of ageing and demographic change. (United States)

    Hazra, Nisha C; Gulliford, Martin C; Rudisill, Caroline


    There are now 125 million people aged 80 years and over worldwide, projected by the United Nations to grow threefold by 2050. While increases in life expectancy and rapid increases in the older-age population are considered positive developments, the consequential future health care burden represents a leading concern for health services. We revisit Williams' 'fair innings' argument from 1997, in light of technological and demographic changes, and challenge the notion that greater longevity may impose an unfair burden on younger generations. We discuss perspectives on the equity-efficiency trade-off in terms of their implications for the growing over-80 population, as well as society in general. This includes questioning the comparison of treatment cost-effectiveness in younger vs. older populations when using quality-adjusted life years and the transience of life expectancies over generations. While recognising that there will never be a clear consensus regarding societal value judgements, we present empirical evidence on the very elderly that lends support to a stronger anti-ageist stance given current increases in longevity.

  5. Growth-Maximizing Public Debt under Changing Demographics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bokan, Nikola; Hougaard Jensen, Svend E.; Hallett, Andrew Hughes


    This paper develops an overlapping-generations model to study the growth-maximizing level of public debt under conditions of demograhic change. It is shown that the optimal debt level depends on a positive marginal productivity of public capital. In general, it also depends on the demographic par...... will have to adjust its fiscal plans to accommodate those changes, most likely downward, if growth is to be preserved. An advantage of this model is that it allows us to determine in advance the way in which fiscal policies need to adjust as demographic parameters change....

  6. Demographic change in Germany and reversal of spatial ageing patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swiaczny Frank


    Full Text Available The paper presents the result of a spatial analysis considering the effect of demographic ageing and ageing-in-place processes in Germany according to spatially differentiated ageing patterns among urban, sub-urban and rural counties up to 2025. As to the latest official population forecast counties of urban core regions will undergo a slower ageing process than other types of counties, resulting in a reversal of ageing patterns. Urban core areas in this analysis will gain demographically from their net migration surplus while suburban housing locations of the past will be no longer able to attract enough young migrants to compensate for their now rapidly ageing baby boomer generation. The process presented is typical for the fate of (suburban housing areas with homogenous populations under conditions of ageing and shrinking if spatial mobility in ageing population groups is declining.

  7. Demographic change in Germany and reversal of spatial ageing patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swiaczny F.


    Full Text Available The paper presents the result of a spatial analysis considering the effect of demographic ageing and ageing-in-place processes in Germany according to spatially differentiated ageing patterns among urban, sub-urban and rural counties up to 2025. As to the latest official population forecast counties of urban core regions will undergo a slower ageing process than other types of counties, resulting in a reversal of ageing patterns. Urban core areas in this analysis will gain demographically from their net migration surplus while suburban housing locations of the past will be no longer able to attract enough young migrants to compensate for their now rapidly ageing baby boomer generation. The process presented is typical for the fate of (suburban housing areas with homogenous populations under conditions of ageing and shrinking if spatial mobility in ageing population groups is declining.

  8. Asia's demographic miracle: 50 years of unprecedented change. (United States)

    Leete, R; Alam, I


    The demographic landscape of Asia has seen unprecedented changes over the past 50 years. The transition from high to low mortality and fertility rates has made the eventual stabilization of the world's population a real possibility. The demographic success of Asia is associated with the stunning economic and social changes that have taken place during this period. Aside from social and economic improvements, population and health policies also played a major part in shaping the region's demographic transformation. National programs made a substantial contribution to increasing contraceptive use, lowering fertility, and slowing population growth. The success of family planning programs was frequently supported by positive changes in the demand for children. As the initial impact of the recent financial and economic crisis has shown, the Asian demographic miracle cannot be taken for granted. Since mid-1997, the crisis has interrupted and reversed the region's remarkable development gains. Economic downturns often tend to affect the social sectors unevenly. Strengthening the provision of basic social services, including reproductive health and care of the elderly, particularly in poor nations, will remain a challenge in the next century. The establishment of goals, including in areas such as HIV/AIDS, will help Asian countries realize the vision of the International Conference on Population and Development¿s 20-year Programme of Action.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arun Kumar Acharya


    Full Text Available This paper tries to explore the process of urbanization and spatial changes in demographic features in the Monterrey Metropolitan Region (MMR, Mexico. This city is the third largest urban sector in Mexico which has around 4 million population. It is also the industrial and economic capital of the country. The present study found that rapid urbanization in the metropolitan region has a close association with process of industrialization. In population distribution and composition, study found that the metropolitan region had its “demographic transition” during the years seventies and currently the region is taking advantages of demographic bonus cohort, i.e. a higher concentration of population in economic active groups compare to children and old age population. However, this paper indentified a higher imbalance in metropolitan demographic scenario. On the one hand, there is di-populization in the city center region and in other there is a steady increment of population in peri-urban region.

  10. Environmental stress, resource management and demographic change in Northern Tanzania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niboye, E.P.


    the management of resources both at global and local levels. We found out empirically that despite the dwindling natural resource base, the people in Arumeru still maintain their demographic dynamism. For them, it is a rational thing to do. The explanation for this phenomenon is not discrete, but spans the whole range of the population-resource continuum. From the demographic transition point of view, the society has not reached the threshold where child labour is valueless. In Arumeru, the children are still valued for their labour as they participate in both agro-pastoral related income generating activities. Further, children are still old age insurers. Thus, the age long traditions which favour the persistence of high fertility regimes are still in force. Having children is still a pleasure which costs nothing and hence the family size is rarely determined by the household's income. The interplay of proximate determinants of fertility is found to have an effect on the population increase in the district. People enter into marriage unions at very young ages, while the breastfeeding duration has drastically decreased in recent years. Furthermore, postpartum abstinence is no longer observed and incidences of pathological infertility have been tremendously reduced, thanks to modern medicine. All these factors support high fertility regimes. The argument that rapid population growth always leads to environmental decline and thus forces rural economies into diminishing returns, over-utilisation of resource and pauperisation is rejected. Despite the population increase and dwindling resource base in Arumeru, food security, rural incomes and standard of living have consistently improved throughout the century. The situation in the study area somehow accommodate the Boserupian model, where population growth triggers agricultural intensification, but in this case, the forces which triggers change did not emanate from within, but were externally generated. Institutional

  11. The joint effect of demographic change on growth and agglomeration


    Theresa Grafeneder-Weissteiner


    Recently, there has been wide interest in the "economics" of population aging. Demographic change has crucial consequences for economic behavior; it e.g. implies that consumption and investment decisions vary over the life-cycle. The latter has important implications for economic growth, whereas the former is decisive for the location of economic activity as emphasized in the New Economic Geography (NEG) literature. Both growth and agglomeration processes are, however, themselves interlinked,...

  12. Managing diversity: Changing demographics in the engineering workplace

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Judd, J.C.; Vella, J.J.


    Technological development creates a need for better educated workers with increased basic, analytical, and interpersonal skills. At the same time, both the population of 22-yr olds and the numbers of traditional students who are choosing careers in engineering and science are decreasing, creating a gap between engineering and construction needs and available trained resources. If more and better caliber students are not attracted to engineering, industry is expected to face selective shortages in the future. There is no question that the demographic composition of the next generation of engineers will significantly differ from that of today's engineers. Industry must recognize the changes that are occurring and take action to ensure that there continues to be an adequate supply of technically qualified workers in light of these demographic changes. In its role as adviser and coordinator of industry action, ANS can play a vital role in ensuring that the industry actions are timely and effective. The ANS should form a committee to study the changing composition of future engineers and constructors and formulate an effective action plan that industry can use to continue to attract able, top-performing students to the engineering field

  13. Openness to Change: Experiential and Demographic Components of Change in Local Health Department Leaders


    Jadhav, Emmanuel D.; Holsinger, James W.; Fardo, David W.


    Background During the 2008–2010 economic recession, Kentucky local health department (LHD) leaders utilized innovative strategies to maintain their programs. A characteristic of innovative strategy is leader openness to change. Leader demographical research in for-profit organizations has yielded valuable insight into leader openness to change. For LHD leaders, the nature of the association between leader demographic and organizational characteristics on leader openness to change is unknow...

  14. Openness to change: experiential and demographic components of change in in Local Health Department leaders


    Emmanuel D Jadhav; James W. Holsinger; David W Fardo


    Background: During the 2008-10 economic recession, Kentucky local health department (LHD) leaders utilized innovative strategies to maintain their programs. A characteristic of innovative strategy is leader openness to change. Leader demographical research in for-profit organizations has yielded valuable insight into leader openness to change. For LHD leaders the nature of the association between leader demographic and organizational characteristics on leader openness to change is unknown. Th...

  15. Peripheralisation: The Missing Link in Dealing with Demographic Change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Leibert


    Full Text Available Demographic change is an uneven spatial process in Germany. Depopulation and ageing have become pressing issues in most rural regions. In connection with low population densities and the financial difficulties of municipalities and service providers in rural regions, these demographic trends have led to a discussion about the future provision of services of general interest and – more broadly – the postulate of equal living conditions which was for a long time the basic principle of spatial development in Germany. In this paper, we argue that the peripheralisation approach is a helpful tool to better understand how interaction of out-migration, dependence, disconnection and stigmatisation shape the future of rural regions. We also discuss the impact of peripheralisation on the development and implementation of adaptation strategies. Based on the 3R-model (retrenchment, repositioning, reorganisation, we argue that adaptation strategies can reinforce (retrenchment peripheralisation processes, but also serve as groundwork for the formulation of policies aiming at de-peripheralisation.

  16. The effects of climate change and land-use change on demographic rates and population viability. (United States)

    Selwood, Katherine E; McGeoch, Melodie A; Mac Nally, Ralph


    Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land-use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  17. The changing demographic pattern of multiple sclerosis epidemiology. (United States)

    Koch-Henriksen, Nils; Sørensen, Per Soelberg


    The uneven distribution of multiple sclerosis (MS) across populations can be attributed to differences in genes and the environment and their interaction. Prevalence and incidence surveys could be affected by inaccuracy of diagnosis and ascertainment, and prevalence also depends on survival. These sources of error might play a part in the geographical and temporal variations. Our literature search and meta-regression analyses indicated an almost universal increase in prevalence and incidence of MS over time; they challenge the well accepted theory of a latitudinal gradient of incidence of MS in Europe and North America, while this gradient is still apparent for Australia and New Zealand; and suggest a general, although not ubiquitous, increase in incidence of MS in females. The latter observation should prompt epidemiological studies to focus on changes in lifestyle in females. New insights into gene-environment and gene-gene interactions complicate interpretations of demographic epidemiology and have made obsolete the idea of simple causative associations between genes or the environment and MS. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Demographic Changes and the Challenge for a Healthy Ageing. (United States)

    Rossini, Paolo Maria; Marra, Camillo


    Demographic changes bring about a wide range of new research fields including policy topics, health, social welfare, work & productivity, urban & rural development, communication tools, and mobility. This new situation requires a new multi-disciplinary approach bringing together different research programs in order to provide solutions for the upcoming challenges. National Health services are now facing a huge shift in the population structure with a predominance of older generations in the total number of citizens. Good health is the most important factor to live independently in old age. A better understanding of ageing processes and the related "plasticity" of individual performance for environmental adaptation, the prevention for age-related illnesses and healthcare strategies are the basis for keeping very old people healthy and active throughout the course of their lives. We will face mainly the biological, cognitive and psychological dimensions of ageing. Afterwards, we will focus on the relationships linking various biological and lifestyle factors - such as nutrition - that are crucial to obtain a comprehensive picture of ageing and to promote preventing strategies against degenerative neurological diseases. Finally we will investigate which interventions - nutritional and physical - could help in keeping people healthy, in particular which factors could promote people's physical, social and psychological functional abilities and the systemic multilevel consequences induced by a healthy ageing.

  19. Endogenous technological and demographic change under increasing water scarcity (United States)

    Pande, Saket; Ertsen, Maurits; Sivapalan, Murugesu


    The ancient civilization in the Indus Valley civilization dispersed under extreme dry conditions; there are indications that the same holds for many other ancient societies. Even contemporary societies, such as the one in Murrumbidgee river basin in Australia, have started to witness a decline in overall population under increasing water scarcity. Hydroclimatic change may not be the sole predictor of the fate of contemporary societies in water scarce regions and many critics of such (perceived) hydroclimatic determinism have suggested that technological change may ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity and as such counter the effects of hydroclimatic changes. To study the role of technological change on the dynamics of coupled human-water systems, we develop a simple overlapping-generations model of endogenous technological and demographic change. We model technological change as an endogenous process that depends on factors such as the investments that are (endogenously) made in a society, the (endogenous) diversification of a society into skilled and unskilled workers, a society's patience in terms of its present consumption vs. future consumption, production technology and the (endogenous) interaction of all of these factors. In the model the population growth rate is programmed to decline once consumption per capita crosses a "survival" threshold. This means we do not treat technology as an exogenous random sequence of events, but instead assume that it results (endogenously) from societal actions. The model demonstrates that technological change may indeed ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity but typically it does so only to a certain extent. It is possible that technological change may allow a society to escape the effect of increasing water scarcity, leading to a (super)-exponential rise in technology and population. However, such cases require the rate of success of investment in technological advancement to be high. In other

  20. Demographic change and marriage choices in one Carib family. (United States)

    Adams, K


    The demographic adaptation of a family of Topside Caribs along the Barama River in Guyana was studied. The family history included two grandfather and granddaughter marriages. Jack Raymond's father, who was born in 1870, left Bottomside after the death of his wife in the 1920s and settled above the falls of the Barama River (Topside in Sawari) with the hope of subsistence living off the rain forest. Information on the grandfather generation was made difficult by name changes, general references to all men in the second generation as grandfathers, and the focus on father's and mother's generation. The typical pattern was for brothers to live close by, and intermarry with a family of sisters. Female children married mother's brothers' sons or father's sisters sons. Their children formed their own cluster settlements. The early history indicated economic hardship, loss of wives, and difficulties in remarrying. The Baird chronicles of the reintroduction of gold mining and the ethnography of Gillin indicated that malaria and round worm were diseases affecting the indigenous population during the 1920s and 1930s. The Topside population was supported by the local gold-mining economy, while the Bottomside population suffered economic hardship and high infant mortality. In the Jack Raymond family, remarriage resulted in children marrying cross cousins. The younger daughter married in the 1940s, when subsistence production of cassava and hunting and gold-mining income provided the family's livelihood. The daughter had 10 surviving children, compared to her adoptive mother's two. For the daughter's generation, the first pregnancy occurred between the ages of 18 and 22 years, and birth spacing was 20-30 months for 25 years. Neither polygyny nor monogamy affected the potential for 12 children. In this Baramita Air Strip population in 1971, there were 62 mothers; reproductive histories were available for 59. The changes in reproductive patterns after 1940 were apparent: for

  1. Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis. (United States)

    Hunter, Christine M; Caswell, Hal; Runge, Michael C; Regehr, Eric V; Amstrup, Steve C; Stirling, Ian


    The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population

  2. Climate change threatens polar bear populations: A stochastic demographic analysis (United States)

    Hunter, C.M.; Caswell, H.; Runge, M.C.; Regehr, E.V.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.


    The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in ?? in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log ??s, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log ??s ' - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic

  3. Responding to Demographic Change: What Do Suburban District Leaders Need to Know? (United States)

    Diarrassouba, Nagnon; Johnson, Shirley


    This study examined the demographic shifts in a medium-sized school district in West Michigan and the responses developed as a result of these changes during the last two decades. Findings indicated that the district's school demographics changed from being European American to minority dominant. As a result of these changes in student population…

  4. The changing demographic, legal, and technological contexts of political representation. (United States)

    Forest, Benjamin


    Three developments have created challenges for political representation in the U.S. and particularly for the use of territorially based representation (election by district). First, the demographic complexity of the U.S. population has grown both in absolute terms and in terms of residential patterns. Second, legal developments since the 1960s have recognized an increasing number of groups as eligible for voting rights protection. Third, the growing technical capacities of computer technology, particularly Geographic Information Systems, have allowed political parties and other organizations to create election districts with increasingly precise political and demographic characteristics. Scholars have made considerable progress in measuring and evaluating the racial and partisan biases of districting plans, and some states have tried to use Geographic Information Systems technology to produce more representative districts. However, case studies of Texas and Arizona illustrate that such analytic and technical advances have not overcome the basic contradictions that underlie the American system of territorial political representation.

  5. The Rapid Ice Sheet Change Observatory (RISCO) (United States)

    Morin, P.; Howat, I. M.; Ahn, Y.; Porter, C.; McFadden, E. M.


    The recent expansion of observational capacity from space has revealed dramatic, rapid changes in the Earth’s ice cover. These discoveries have fundamentally altered how scientists view ice-sheet change. Instead of just slow changes in snow accumulation and melting over centuries or millennia, important changes can occur in sudden events lasting only months, weeks, or even a single day. Our understanding of these short time- and space-scale processes, which hold important implications for future global sea level rise, has been impeded by the low temporal and spatial resolution, delayed sensor tasking, incomplete coverage, inaccessibility and/or high cost of data available to investigators. New cross-agency partnerships and data access policies provide the opportunity to dramatically improve the resolution of ice sheet observations by an order of magnitude, from timescales of months and distances of 10’s of meters, to days and meters or less. Advances in image processing technology also enable application of currently under-utilized datasets. The infrastructure for systematically gathering, processing, analyzing and distributing these data does not currently exist. Here we present the development of a multi-institutional, multi-platform observatory for rapid ice change with the ultimate objective of helping to elucidate the relevant timescales and processes of ice sheet dynamics and response to climate change. The Rapid Ice Sheet Observatory (RISCO) gathers observations of short time- and space-scale Cryosphere events and makes them easily accessible to investigators, media and general public. As opposed to existing data centers, which are structured to archive and distribute diverse types of raw data to end users with the specialized software and skills to analyze them, RISCO focuses on three types of geo-referenced raster (image) data products in a format immediately viewable with commonly available software. These three products are (1) sequences of images

  6. Indigenous people's detection of rapid ecological change. (United States)

    Aswani, Shankar; Lauer, Matthew


    When sudden catastrophic events occur, it becomes critical for coastal communities to detect and respond to environmental transformations because failure to do so may undermine overall ecosystem resilience and threaten people's livelihoods. We therefore asked how capable of detecting rapid ecological change following massive environmental disruptions local, indigenous people are. We assessed the direction and periodicity of experimental learning of people in the Western Solomon Islands after a tsunami in 2007. We compared the results of marine science surveys with local ecological knowledge of the benthos across 3 affected villages and 3 periods before and after the tsunami. We sought to determine how people recognize biophysical changes in the environment before and after catastrophic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis and whether people have the ability to detect ecological changes over short time scales or need longer time scales to recognize changes. Indigenous people were able to detect changes in the benthos over time. Detection levels differed between marine science surveys and local ecological knowledge sources over time, but overall patterns of statistically significant detection of change were evident for various habitats. Our findings have implications for marine conservation, coastal management policies, and disaster-relief efforts because when people are able to detect ecological changes, this, in turn, affects how they exploit and manage their marine resources. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  7. Patterns of Demographic Change in the Missions of Central Alta California


    Jackson, Robert H


    A number of scholars have examined the cause of demographic collapse in the Californias, and have included stress, disease, and subsistence crises among their explanations. This essay does not attempt to explain in detail the causes of demographic change, but rather to document population movements in the seven missions in central Alta California, from Santa Cruz in the north to San Luis Obispo in the south. The basic premise entertained here is that the process of demographic change in the C...

  8. Openness to change: experiential and demographic components of change in in Local Health Department leaders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel D Jadhav


    Full Text Available Background: During the 2008-10 economic recession, Kentucky local health department (LHD leaders utilized innovative strategies to maintain their programs. A characteristic of innovative strategy is leader openness to change. Leader demographical research in for-profit organizations has yielded valuable insight into leader openness to change. For LHD leaders the nature of the association between leader demographic and organizational characteristics on leader openness to change is unknown. The objectives of this study are to identify variation in openness to change by leaders’ demographic and organizational characteristics and to characterize the underlying relationships. Material and Methods: The study utilized Spearman rank correlations test to determine relationships between leader openness to change (ACQ and leader and LHD characteristics. To identify differences in the distribution of ACQ scores, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney and Kruskal Wallis non-parametric tests were used, and to adjust for potential confounding linear regression analysis was performed.Data: LHD leaders in the Commonwealth of Kentucky were the unit of analysis. Expenditure and revenue data were available from the state health department. National census data was utilized for county level population estimates. A cross-sectional survey was performed of KY LHD leaders’ observable attributes relating to age, gender, race, educational background, leadership experience and openness to change. Results: Leaders had relatively high openness to change scores. Spearman correlations between leader ACQ and departmental 2012-13 revenue and expenditures were statistically significant, as were the differences observed in ACQ by gender and the educational level of the leader. Differences in ACQ score by education level and agency revenue were significant even after adjusting for potential confounders. The analyses imply there are underlying relationships between leader and LHD characteristics

  9. Rapid Change Detection Algorithm for Disaster Management (United States)

    Michel, U.; Thunig, H.; Ehlers, M.; Reinartz, P.


    This paper focuses on change detection applications in areas where catastrophic events took place which resulted in rapid destruction especially of manmade objects. Standard methods for automated change detection prove not to be sufficient; therefore a new method was developed and tested. The presented method allows a fast detection and visualization of change in areas of crisis or catastrophes. While often new methods of remote sensing are developed without user oriented aspects, organizations and authorities are not able to use these methods because of absence of remote sensing know how. Therefore a semi-automated procedure was developed. Within a transferable framework, the developed algorithm can be implemented for a set of remote sensing data among different investigation areas. Several case studies are the base for the retrieved results. Within a coarse dividing into statistical parts and the segmentation in meaningful objects, the framework is able to deal with different types of change. By means of an elaborated Temporal Change Index (TCI) only panchromatic datasets are used to extract areas which are destroyed, areas which were not affected and in addition areas where rebuilding has already started.

  10. Public pensions, family allowances and endogenous demographic change. (United States)

    Peters, W


    "A tax-transfer system deals with redistribution a PAYGmong generations and corrective taxation a PAYGt the same time. Since such a policy is a government's task, we take a normative approach and pose the question: Which tax-transfer system should a government apply to maximize social welfare? The framework we consider allows for endogenous demographic aspects...: first, fertility has a great impact on a PAYG [pay-as-you-go] financed pension insurance; and second, through education human capital is accumulated.... We analyzed the optimal extent of a public pension scheme in the presence of external effects of fertility and education on the net domestic product." Pension schemes in Germany and the United States are compared. excerpt

  11. Intergenerational aspects of government policy under changing demographic and economic conditions. (United States)

    Boskin, M J


    Changing demographic and economic conditions in the US require that attention be given to some of the intergenerational equity features of government policy. In particular, social insurance programs and public debt leave public liabilities to future generations. Taken in the aggregate, the effects of rapidly rising public debt and especially social insurance programs are transferring substantial amounts of resources from younger working generations to the expanding generation of retirees. The most crucial element in evaluating the desirability of intergenerational wealth distribution in the long run is the rate of economic growth. A society's monetary, fiscal, tax, and regulatory policies can be more or less conducive to the generation of capital formation, technical change, and economic growth. Policies that influence growth and interest rates will combine with the national deficit to determine how rapidly the debt grows or shrinks. Present accounting procedures are insufficient to provide quantitative answers to the question of what is the impact of a given program on the age-specific distributions of resources. It is important to reconsider the desirability and efficiency of intergenerational redistributions of wealth in the US. It is likely that current policies are not in line with the principles of efficiency, equity, target effectiveness, and cost effectiveness.

  12. Decomposing demographic change into direct vs. compositional components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vaupel, James W.; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir


    of averages over age and over subpopulations. Examples include decomposition of the change over time in the average age at childbearing and in the general fertility rate for China, Denmark and Mexico. A decomposition of the change over time in the crude death rate in Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands...

  13. Demographics and Volatile Social Security Wealth: Political Risks of Benefit Rule Changes in Germany


    Christoph Borgmann; Matthias Heidler


    In this paper we address the question how the generosity of the benefit rule of the German public pension system has changed during the past three decades and how this development can be explained by demographic changes. Firstly, we illustrate the political risk of benefit rule changes for individuals. We find that depending on the birth year and the considered scenario the relative losses vary between 30 and nearly 60 percent. Secondly, we estimate how demographic developments have triggered...

  14. The Impact of Demographic Change on Tourism in North Oltenia Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulian Adrian SORCARU


    Full Text Available Tourism in any region is closely linked to its demographic potential. North Oltenia is known in Romania for its valuable tourism potential, both natural and anthropic, which caused over time a contiuous diversification of the types of tourism. This study deals with the demographic evolution of the administrative units in North Oltenia, between Tismana and Olt Rivers in the last half of century (1966-2015, analyzing also the age structure and demographic ageing after 1990. The major objectives of this study were to identify the types of demographic change and the hierarchy of the administrative units; the analysis of age structure (youth, adults, elders, especially adults who include the working population capable of sustaining tourist flows in the region and demographic ageing. Mapping the results was designed to quickly identify the administrative units where demographic potential recorded an unfavorable evolution, where tourism potential and maintenance of the existing tourism infrastructure can be more difficult in the future.


    Bodzsar, Eva B; Zsakai, Annamaria; Mascie-Taylor, Nicholas


    This paper analyses the secular changes in the body development patterns of Hungarian children between the 1910s and the beginning of the 2000s in relation to socioeconomic and demographic changes in the country. Individual growth data of children were available from two national growth studies (1983-86, 2003-06), while sample-size weighted means of children's body dimensions were collected through regional studies between the 1920s and 1970s. Gross domestic product, Gini index, life expectancy at birth and under-5 mortality rate were used to assess the changes in economic status, income inequalities of the society and the population's general health status, respectively. Secular changes in food consumption habits were also examined. The positive Hungarian secular changes in socioeconomic status were associated with a continuous increase in children's body dimensions. The negative socioeconomic changes reflected only in wartime and post-war periods of children's growth, and the considerable socioeconomic changes at the beginning of the 1990s did not appear to influence the positive trend in children's growth. The positive secular trend in stature and body mass did not level off at the beginning of the 2000s: the socioeconomic conditions that support optimal growth and maturation could improve in Hungary.

  16. The changing demographic pattern of multiple sclerosis epidemiology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koch-Henriksen, Nils; Sørensen, Per Soelberg


    in Europe and North America, while this gradient is still apparent for Australia and New Zealand; and suggest a general, although not ubiquitous, increase in incidence of MS in females. The latter observation should prompt epidemiological studies to focus on changes in lifestyle in females. New insights....... These sources of error might play a part in the geographical and temporal variations. Our literature search and meta-regression analyses indicated an almost universal increase in prevalence and incidence of MS over time; they challenge the well accepted theory of a latitudinal gradient of incidence of MS...

  17. How does variance in fertility change over the demographic transition? (United States)

    Hruschka, Daniel J; Burger, Oskar


    Most work on the human fertility transition has focused on declines in mean fertility. However, understanding changes in the variance of reproductive outcomes can be equally important for evolutionary questions about the heritability of fertility, individual determinants of fertility and changing patterns of reproductive skew. Here, we document how variance in completed fertility among women (45-49 years) differs across 200 surveys in 72 low- to middle-income countries where fertility transitions are currently in progress at various stages. Nearly all (91%) of samples exhibit variance consistent with a Poisson process of fertility, which places systematic, and often severe, theoretical upper bounds on the proportion of variance that can be attributed to individual differences. In contrast to the pattern of total variance, these upper bounds increase from high- to mid-fertility samples, then decline again as samples move from mid to low fertility. Notably, the lowest fertility samples often deviate from a Poisson process. This suggests that as populations move to low fertility their reproduction shifts from a rate-based process to a focus on an ideal number of children. We discuss the implications of these findings for predicting completed fertility from individual-level variables. © 2016 The Author(s).

  18. Earning and caring: demographic change and policy implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roderic Beaujot


    activities, we contrast theoretical orientations that see advantages to a division of labour or complementary roles, in comparison to orientations that see less risk and greater companionship in a collaborative model based on sharing paid and unpaid work, or co-providing and co-parenting. It is important to look both inside and outside of families, or at the changing gendered links between earning and caring, to understand change both in families and in the work world. It is proposed that equal opportunity by gender has advanced further in the public sphere associated with education and work, than in the private family sphere associated with everyday life. Time-use data indicate that, on average, men carry their weight in terms of total productive time (paid plus unpaid work, but that women make much more of the accommodations between family and work. Fertility is likely to be lowest in societies that offer women equal opportunity in the public sphere but where families remain traditional in terms of the division of work. Policies are discussed that would reduce the dependency between spouses, and encourage a greater common ground between men and women in earning and caring.

  19. Impact of demographic changes on higher education institutions : Llithuania in a global context


    Grebliauskas, Artūras; Leskauskaitė, Aušra


    The present article raises the following problematic questions: how have higher education institutions prepared themselves for facing challenges coming from the environment modified by demographic changes? What new strategic directions in higher education institutions operation are determined by a steadily-decreasing number of students? This research purposes: firstly, to inquire into the impact of demographic changes on higher education institutions activities, and, secondly, to determine ho...

  20. School District Policymaking Responses to Demographic Change in New Immigrant Destinations


    Turner, Erica Owyang


    Since the early 1990s, immigrants from Latin America and Asia have been arriving in parts of the United States that have had little recent experience with immigration. How school district leaders respond to these demographic changes has significant consequences for students, families and communities. Yet, there is little research on why and how school district leaders are coming to enact some policies, and not others, in response to their changing demographics. This study examines policymakin...

  1. Earning and caring: demographic change and policy implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beaujot, Roderic


    Full Text Available EnglishSeeking to define families as groups of people who share earning and caringactivities, we contrast theoretical orientations that see advantages to a division of labour orcomplementary roles, in comparison to orientations that see less risk and greater companionship in acollaborative model based on sharing paid and unpaid work, or co-providing and co-parenting. It isimportant to look both inside and outside of families, or at the changing gendered links betweenearning and caring, to understand change both in families and in the work world. It is proposed thatequal opportunity by gender has advanced further in the public sphere associated with education andwork, than in the private family sphere associated with everyday life. Time-use data [from Canada]indicate that, on average, men carry their weight in terms of total productive time (paid plus unpaidwork, but that women make much more of the accommodations between family and work. Fertility islikely to be lowest in societies that offer women equal opportunity in the public sphere but wherefamilies remain traditional in terms of the division of work. Policies are discussed that would reducethe dependency between spouses, and encourage a greater common ground between men and women in earningand caring.FrenchEn cherchant à définir la famille comme étant un groupe de personnes partageant les activités relatives au fait de gagner de l'argent et de prendre soin des autres, nous nous distinguons des théories préconisant la division du travail ou les rôles complémentaires comparativement au modèle collaboratif qui a l'avantage de présenter moins de risque et plus de compagnonnage et qui est fondé sur le partage du travail rémunéré et non rémunéré, le travail à l'extérieur de la maison et le parentage. Il est important de voir ce qui se passe à l'intérieur et à l'extérieur de la famille ou de considérer les liens changeant d'après le sexe entre le rôle de pourvoyeur et

  2. Hmong demographic changes in Laos: causes and ecological consequences. (United States)

    Ireson, W R


    This study of the Hmong in Laos is based on ethnographic research conducted during a three week stay in the Nong Het district of Xieng Khouang province. Information was collected on the household agricultural economy, village and household movement, family composition and change, cropping and animal husbandry, and environmental resources. The study area east of the Mekong River and near the Vietnamese border is an infrequently studied area. Findings differ from the ethnographic literature that portrays the Hmong as migrating frequently as swidden fields are exhausted, as living in large extended families, and as polygynous. The Hmong are the second largest minority in Laos (231,000), but are only 0.1% of Thailand's total population (90,000). There are 558,000 Hmong in Vietnam, but 5 million in China. Most rural Hmong in Laos produce opium as a necessary crop for sustaining their household farming economy. Although areas near the study area were involved in major military action during 1960-73, the study area received minimal disruption. Four studies of the Hmong in Laos and Thailand indicated that the Hmong stayed at one residence about 7 years, that residence varied from 6-16 years, and that settlements were short-lived. Household size ranged from 4 to 47 households. The Hmong in this study were more sedentary. In 1990, the villages averaged about 45 households. The population ranged in age from 19 years to 87 years. The Hmong had a high birth rate and a high mortality rate due to poor diet and lack of adequate medical care. 45% of the Nong Het population were aged under 14 years, which suggests a baby boom after the war. The dependency ratio was very high. Polygyny was uncommon. Of the 154 households, the average size was small at 7.40 persons. 71% were nuclear families. Patrilocal residence after marriage was still practiced, but the time spent in the father's home was reduced. The findings suggest that the Hmong are likely to become sedentary due to limits on

  3. Simulating Residential Demand in Singapore through Five Decades of Demographic Change (United States)

    Davis, N. R.; Fernández, J.


    Singapore's rapid and well-documented development over the last half-century provides an ideal case for studying urban metabolism. Extensive data [1, 2] facilitate the modeling of historical dynamics of population and resource consumption. This paper presents an agent-based population model that simulates key demographic factors - number, size, and relative income of households - through fifty years of development in Singapore. This is the first step in a broader study linking demographic factors to residential demand for urban land, materials, water, and energy. Previous studies of the resource demands of housing stock have accounted for demographics by modifying the important population driver with a single, aggregated "lifestyle" term [3, 4]. However, demographic changes that result from development can influence the nature of the residential sector, and warrant a closer look. Increasing levels of education and affluence coupled with decreasing birth rates have yielded an aging population and changing family structures in Singapore [5]. These factors all contribute to an increasingly resource-intense residential sector. Singaporeans' elevated per capita income and life expectancy have created demand for larger household area, which means a growing percentage of available land must be dedicated to residential use [6]. While the majority of Singapore's housing is public - a strategy designed to maximize land use efficiency - residents are increasingly seeking private alternatives [7]. In the private sector, lower density housing puts even greater pressure on the finite supply of undeveloped land. Agent-based modeling is used to study the selected aspects of demography. The population is disaggregated into historical time-series distributions of age, family size, education, and income. We propose a simplified methodology correlating average education level with birth rate, and income to categorize households and establish housing unit demand. Aggregated lifestyle

  4. Demographic Changes of Hispanic Populations and Hispanic Student Enrollment in Texas Community Colleges: A Literature Review (United States)

    Hernandez, Jack; Slate, John R.; Joyner, Sheila A.


    In this literature review, Hispanic demographic changes in the United States and in Texas are examined. Hispanics have accounted for large changes in population, population change, and proportion of population. Accordingly, the literature was reviewed regarding Hispanic immigrants, both authorized and non-authorized immigrants. The issue of…

  5. Public health in a rapidly changing world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana I. Andreeva


    Full Text Available Several months in 2013 and 2014 have been a hardly predictable time in Ukraine, and the situation is still far from being stable. This made the editorial team of TCPHEE based in Ukraine postpone publishing consecutive issues. However, while the situation still requires practical steps, many aspects including those related to public health require analysis and debate. Thus we invite opinion pieces and studies addressing all different spheres of how public health should function under changing social circumstances. There might be a wide range of such related topics. The most obvious ones are those linked to changing living conditions. Many studies have been undertaken and published with regard to health threats to refugees, people involved in natural or technical disasters (Noji, 2005. Along with environmental health threats, there might be mental health disturbances (World Health Organization, 1992 resulting from long-term strain, losses et cetera. Another important focus is related to changes in health services provision. Crimea, which is a former Ukrainian territory now occupied by the Russian Federation, was among those in Ukraine highly affected with HIV (Dehne, Khodakevich, Hamers, & Schwartlander, 1999. This was responded by several NGOs actively providing harm reduction services to high-risk groups along with methadone substitution therapy to opiate users and antiretroviral medicines to those HIV-infected (Curtis, 2010. However, there are news reports that Russia is going to stop provision of methadone (, 2014. As opiate substitution programs have been shown an effective approach towards preventing HIV transmission among people who inject drugs (MacArthur et al., 2012, such change in public health policies might affect not only most at risk populations but their partners and population as a whole as well resulting in a rapid spread of HIV. Yet another related topic is that of how health services can be organized at times of

  6. Demographic Change and Representation by Population in the Canadian House of Commons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Don Kerr


    delineation of boundaries of federal electoral districts. As argued in this paper,the traditional understandings and agreements that have shaped decisions relating to electoral districts are increasingly at odds with Canada’s emerging demographic realities. In a nation that is highly reliant on immigration in maintaining its population, the current representational order arguably penalizes regions of the country which are growing most rapidly, and in particular, where new immigrants are most likely to locate. The current paper also considers possible reforms in the manner in which electoral districts are drawn, which at a minimum could involve the use of more up to date and accurate demographic data.

  7. How can “gender planning” contribute to tackle the challenges of demographic change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wankiewicz Heidrun


    Full Text Available Ageing society, lack of skilled workforce, changes in work life careers and changes in partner and family models, a shift in societal roles of women and men, young and old, migration flows from rural to urban, multiple residences and new forms of housing and the related spatial impacts are in focus of demographic change. It is obvious that demographic change is not to be managed without gender and equality issues. Spatial planning has a crucial role in facing these challenges as spatial planning laws demand to ensure equal access to housing, services and labour markets and to organize transparent and inclusive decision making procedures. The paper explores key concepts, methods and selected case studies from Europe on gender planning trying to focus on the potential for innovating planning discipline and tackling with demographic change issues in rural areas. Cases from Bavaria and Austria compared to rural regions in Eastern Germany with high female emigration show concrete planning approaches.

  8. The effects of demographic change on disease transmission and vaccine impact in a household structured population. (United States)

    Geard, Nicholas; Glass, Kathryn; McCaw, James M; McBryde, Emma S; Korb, Kevin B; Keeling, Matt J; McVernon, Jodie


    The demographic structure of populations in both more developed and less developed countries is changing: increases in life expectancy and declining fertility have led to older populations and smaller households. The implications of these demographic changes for the spread and control of infectious diseases are not fully understood. Here we use an individual based model with realistic and dynamic age and household structure to demonstrate the marked effect that demographic change has on disease transmission at the population and household level. The decline in fertility is associated with a decrease in disease incidence and an increase in the age of first infection, even in the absence of vaccination or other control measures. Although large households become rarer as fertility decreases, we show that there is a proportionate increase in incidence of disease in these households as the accumulation of susceptible clusters increases the potential for explosive outbreaks. By modelling vaccination, we provide a direct comparison of the relative importance of demographic change and vaccination on incidence of disease. We highlight the increased risks associated with unvaccinated households in a low fertility setting if vaccine behaviour is correlated with household membership. We suggest that models that do not account for future demographic change, and especially its effect on household structure, may potentially overestimate the impact of vaccination. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Leveraging age diversity in times of demographic change: the crucial role of leadership

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janz, K.; Buengeler, C.; Eckhoff, R.A.; Homan, A.C.; Voelpel, S.C.; Scott, C.L.; Byrd, M.Y.


    With demographic change, organizations today are seeing changes in societal make-up translated to the composition of their workforce. In the future, younger and older employees will have to work together synergistically to achieve good performance. The authors argue that it will be largely up to

  10. Changing demographics and state fiscal outlook: the case of sales taxes. (United States)

    Mullins, D R; Wallace, S


    "Broad-scale demographic changes have implications for state and local finance in terms of the composition of the base of revenue sources and their yields. This article examines the effect of such changes on the potential future yield of consumption-based taxes. The effect of household characteristics and composition on the consumption of selected groups of goods subject to ad valorem retail sales taxes is estimated, generating demographic elasticities of consumption. These elasticities are applied to projected demographic changes in eight states through the year 2000. The results show rather wide variation in expected consumption shifts and potential tax bases across the states, with income growth having the greatest effect...." The geographical focus is on the United States. excerpt

  11. Living in the tide of change: Explaining Japanese subjective health from the socio-demographic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hidefumi eHitokoto


    Full Text Available Today, countries around the world are caught in the tide of change towards Gesellshaft, or individualistic socio-demographic condition. Recent investigations in Japan have suggested negative impacts of change on emotional and motivational aspects of the Japanese self (Norasakkunkit, Uchida, and Toivonen, 2012; Ogihara and Uchida, 2014. Building on previous findings, in Study 1, we measured socio-demographic change towards individualistic societal condition during 1990 to 2010—two decades marked by great economic recession—at the levels of prefecture and city using archival data. In Study 2, we tested whether Japanese adults’ general health, satisfaction with life, self-esteem, and perceived social support were negatively predicted by the change using social survey. Results of hierarchical linear modeling showed small but unique negative effects of the change on several health measures, suggesting that this change had an impact on health, above and beyond individual personality traits and demographics. Additionally, interdependent happiness, the type of cultural happiness grounded in interdependence of the self (Hitokoto and Uchida, 2014, showed an independent positive relationship with all aspects of health examined. Implications for health studies in changing socio-demographic condition are discussed in the context of Japanese society after economic crisis.

  12. The Socio-Demographic Changes in Romania: an Analysis from the Human Development Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mioara BORZA


    Full Text Available The social and demographic changes registered in recent years, at European and Romanian level, have produced some effects visible in various reference areas. By this paper, we propose to achieve an empirical analysis meant to emphasize the main socio-economic changes of the last 10 years and their influence on the human society development. Based on the inventory of statistical data referring to the socio-demographic dynamics and using a research methodology based on inductive reasoning, dynamic and dialectics analysis, we will obtain some results of research that indicate: the human development is in positive evolution, even the number of population is decreasing.

  13. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change provides data and information on global and regional land cover change in raster format for...

  14. Are rapid changes in brain elasticity possible? (United States)

    Parker, K. J.


    Elastography of the brain is a topic of clinical and preclinical research, motivated by the potential for viscoelastic measures of the brain to provide sensitive indicators of pathological processes, and to assist in early diagnosis. To date, studies of the normal brain and of those with confirmed neurological disorders have reported a wide range of shear stiffness and shear wave speeds, even within similar categories. A range of factors including the shear wave frequency, and the age of the individual are thought to have a possible influence. However, it may be that short term dynamics within the brain may have an influence on the measured stiffness. This hypothesis is addressed quantitatively using the framework of the microchannel flow model, which derives the tissue stiffness, complex modulus, and shear wave speed as a function of the vascular and fluid network in combination with the elastic matrix that comprise the brain. Transformation rules are applied so that any changes in the fluid channels or the elastic matrix can be mapped to changes in observed elastic properties on a macroscopic scale. The results are preliminary but demonstrate that measureable, time varying changes in brain stiffness are possible simply by accounting for vasodynamic or electrochemical changes in the state of any region of the brain. The value of this preliminary exploration is to identify possible mechanisms and order-of-magnitude changes that may be testable in vivo by specialized protocols.

  15. Rural demographic change, rising wages and the restructuring of Chinese agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Tianxiang; Yu, Wusheng; Baležentis, Tomas


    Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify the effects of recent demographic transition and rising labor costs on agricultural production structure and pattern in China during 1998-2012. Design/methodology/approach The authors, first, theoretically discuss the effects of changing relative...

  16. Assessing Demographic Changes and Income Inequalities: A Case Study of West Virginia


    Hailu, Yohannes G.; Gebremedhin, Tesfa G.; Jackson, Randall W.


    This study investigates demographic change and income inequalities, and relationship between economic growth and income inequality in West Virginia. Income growth was positively related with population and employment growth, but is significantly and negatively related with income inequality. This indicates that higher income inequality is associated with slower economic growth.

  17. Principal Preparedness for Leading in Demographically Changing Schools: Where Is the Social Justice Training? (United States)

    Miller, Catherine M.; Martin, Barbara N.


    This multi-case study sought to construct meaning using a cultural capital lens in relation to educational leadership preparation programs building the capacities of social justice leaders in demographically changing schools. Data revealed principals' perceptions about preparation, expectations and general beliefs and assumptions related to…

  18. Holocene Demographic Changes and the Emergence of Complex Societies in Prehistoric Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan N Williams

    Full Text Available A continental-scale model of Holocene Australian hunter-gatherer demography and mobility is generated using radiocarbon data and geospatial techniques. Results show a delayed expansion and settlement of much of Australia following the termination of the late Pleistocene until after 9,000 years ago (or 9ka. The onset of the Holocene climatic optimum (9-6ka coincides with rapid expansion, growth and establishment of regional populations across ~75% of Australia, including much of the arid zone. This diffusion from isolated Pleistocene refugia provides a mechanism for the synchronous spread of pan-continental archaeological and linguistic attributes at this time (e.g. Pama-Nyungan language, Panaramitee art style, backed artefacts. We argue longer patch residence times were possible at the end of the optimum, resulting in a shift to more sedentary lifestyles and establishment of low-level food production in some parts of the continent. The onset of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO; 4.5-2ka restricted low-level food production, and resulted in population fragmentation, abandonment of marginal areas, and reduction in ranging territory of ~26%. Importantly, climate amelioration brought about by more pervasive La Niña conditions (post-2ka, resulted in an intensification of the mobility strategies and technological innovations that were developed in the early- to mid-Holocene. These changes resulted in population expansion and utilization of the entire continent. We propose that it was under these demographically packed conditions that the complex social and religious societies observed at colonial contact were formed.

  19. Holocene Demographic Changes and the Emergence of Complex Societies in Prehistoric Australia (United States)

    Williams, Alan N.; Ulm, Sean; Turney, Chris S. M.; Rohde, David; White, Gentry


    A continental-scale model of Holocene Australian hunter-gatherer demography and mobility is generated using radiocarbon data and geospatial techniques. Results show a delayed expansion and settlement of much of Australia following the termination of the late Pleistocene until after 9,000 years ago (or 9ka). The onset of the Holocene climatic optimum (9-6ka) coincides with rapid expansion, growth and establishment of regional populations across ~75% of Australia, including much of the arid zone. This diffusion from isolated Pleistocene refugia provides a mechanism for the synchronous spread of pan-continental archaeological and linguistic attributes at this time (e.g. Pama-Nyungan language, Panaramitee art style, backed artefacts). We argue longer patch residence times were possible at the end of the optimum, resulting in a shift to more sedentary lifestyles and establishment of low-level food production in some parts of the continent. The onset of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO; 4.5-2ka) restricted low-level food production, and resulted in population fragmentation, abandonment of marginal areas, and reduction in ranging territory of ~26%. Importantly, climate amelioration brought about by more pervasive La Niña conditions (post-2ka), resulted in an intensification of the mobility strategies and technological innovations that were developed in the early- to mid-Holocene. These changes resulted in population expansion and utilization of the entire continent. We propose that it was under these demographically packed conditions that the complex social and religious societies observed at colonial contact were formed. PMID:26083101

  20. The demographic changes of the last quarter of century in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Veronica LITRA


    Full Text Available The year 1990 has delimited two different demographic periods in Romania: the first, defined as Stage 2 in the Demographic Transition Model (as in Population Education, USA, characterized by low mortality rates due to advances in medical, and high birth rates, resulting rapid population growth; after 1990, Romania moved to Stage 5, having a negative growth rate due to less births than deaths, and a negative net migration rate. Romania is experiencing a falling population with birth rates at 8.3 births per 1,000 persons and death rates at 11.4 per 1,000 persons in 2014. The total fertility rate fell significantly below the replacement level of generations (1.4 live births per woman in 2014, reversing the proportion of elderly in detriment of the youth.

  1. Social psychiatry in a rapidly changing world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas K. J. Craig


    Full Text Available Many societies around the world are experiencing a period of unprecedented change in traditional social roles and customs. Globalisation has contributed to materialism and a me-first individualism that heightens awareness of income inequality that itself is one of the most robust markers of unhappiness in society. Ever increasing urbanisation has driven an erosion of large ‘joint’ family arrangements to be replaced by smaller and relatively isolated nuclear families and single parent living. Mass migration has unmasked deep seated fear and prejudice towards the outsider in society. These global changes are fertile ground for the social conditions that have long been known to be risks for mental illness – poverty, poor quality child care, social isolation and the active discrimination and exclusion of the alien, the physically disabled and mentally ill. While there is little we can do to reverse global change, there is much a social psychiatrist can do to mitigate the effect, ensuring his/her voice is added to other calls for reducing discriminatory practice, promoting evidence-based social interventions such as parenting advice and peer support and ensuring that the success of a treatment is measured not just in terms of symptomatic improvement but in whether it results in an outcome that is valued by the patient.

  2. Analysis of changes of demographic parameters in different groups of Chernigiv region population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gridzhuk, M.Yu.


    To perform comparison of the changes in different social and age groups of the population of Chernigiv region, Kozeletsky district in particular, which was exposed to considerable radioactive contamination, during the recent 20 years (beginning from 1977). The Chernobyl accident together with social and other unfavorable factors caused negative demographic changes in the contaminated districts. Reduction in the number of different social groups of the population is expected

  3. Rapidly changing flows in the Earth's core

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Mandea, M.


    A large part of the Earth's magnetic field is generated by fluid motion in the molten outer core(1). As a result of continuous satellite measurements since 1999, the core magnetic field and its recent variations can now be described with a high resolution in space and time(2). These data have...... field occurring over only a few months, indicative of fluid flow at the top of the core, can in fact be resolved. Using nine years of magnetic field data obtained by satellites as well as Earth-based observatories, we determine the temporal changes in the core magnetic field and flow in the core. We...

  4. Toward a mechanistic understanding of human-induced rapid environmental change: A case study linking energy development, avian nest predation, and predators (United States)

    Hethcoat, Matthew G.; Chalfoun, Anna D.


    Demographic consequences of human-induced rapid environmental change (HIREC) have been widely documented for many populations. The mechanisms underlying such patterns, however, are rarely investigated and yet are critical to understand for effective conservation and management.

  5. Modern-Day Demographic Processes in Central Europe and Their Potential Interactions with Climate Change (United States)

    Bański, Jerzy


    The aim of this article is to evaluate the effect of contemporary transformations in the population of Central European countries on climate change, in addition to singling out the primary points of interaction between demographic processes and the climate. In analyzing the interactions between climate and demographics, we can formulate three basic hypotheses regarding the region in question: 1) as a result of current demographic trends in Central Europe, the influence of the region on its climate will probably diminish, 2) the importance of the "climatically displaced" in global migratory movements will increase, and some of those concerned will move to Central Europe, 3) the contribution of the region to global food security will increase. In the last decade most of what comprises the region of Central Europe has reported a decline in population growth and a negative migration balance. As a process, this loss of population may have a positive effect on the environment and the climate. We can expect ongoing climate change to intensify migration processes, particularly from countries outside Europe. Interactions between climate and demographic processes can also be viewed in the context of food security. The global warming most sources foresee for the coming decades is the process most likely to result in spatial polarization of food production in agriculture. Central Europe will then face the challenge of assuring and improving food security, albeit this time on a global scale.

  6. Rapid Communication: seniority changing transitions in yrast states ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Bhoomika Maheshwari


    Oct 26, 2017 ... Rapid Communication: v = 2 seniority changing ... has been extensively used to understand various system- .... states. This understanding supports the previous inter- ..... Financial support from the Ministry of Human Resource.

  7. Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason


    Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

  8. Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.


    Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

  9. Ten Thousand Voices on Marine Climate Change in Europe: Different Perceptions among Demographic Groups and Nationalities

    KAUST Repository

    Buckley, Paul J.


    Over the past few decades, substantial funding has been directed toward improving scientific understanding and management of impacts of climate change in the marine environment. Following concerns that the key messages from these studies were not reaching the public, a comprehensive opinion poll of 10,000 European citizens in 10 countries was conducted to establish levels of awareness, concern, and trust among different demographic groups (by age, gender, proximity to the coast) and nationalities. Citizens exhibited varying levels of self-declared

  10. Ten Thousand Voices on Marine Climate Change in Europe: Different Perceptions among Demographic Groups and Nationalities

    KAUST Repository

    Buckley, Paul J.; Pinnegar, John K.; Painting, Suzanne J.; Terry, Geraldine; Chilvers, Jason; Lorenzoni, Irene; Gelcich, Stefan; Duarte, Carlos M.


    Over the past few decades, substantial funding has been directed toward improving scientific understanding and management of impacts of climate change in the marine environment. Following concerns that the key messages from these studies were not reaching the public, a comprehensive opinion poll of 10,000 European citizens in 10 countries was conducted to establish levels of awareness, concern, and trust among different demographic groups (by age, gender, proximity to the coast) and nationalities. Citizens exhibited varying levels of self-declared

  11. Major Demographic Changes in Bangladesh and their Socio-economic Correlates: Analysis of Trends


    Mohammad, Hossain; Tisdell, Clement A.


    Catalogues the demographic changes in Bangladesh during the period 1975-2000 and examines how they relate to key socio-economic attributes. Trends are examined in population growth, growth of the working age population, women’s workforce participation, age-dependency ratio, female-male ratio, longevity, fertility, mortality and mean age at first marriage. Bangladesh has made significant breakthroughs in all these areas, a feat not matched by most other South Asian countries, but comparable wi...

  12. [Demographic and epidemiologic changes in Colombia during the 20th century: facts and explanations]. (United States)

    Carmona-Fonseca, Jaime


    Research, education, organization and administration activities in health need an updated panoramic view of demographic and epidemiologic changes and tendencies. To describe the main changes in demography and epidemiology during the 20th century in Colombia and to comment on the causative models used by some authors. A descriptive and longitudinal study. Second hand information from various sources was used. The final section of the review includes a discussion on the interpretation of data given by the original authors. In 1905-2005, population increased from 4,737,588 inhabitants to 48,864,013. The age distribution of the population showed dramatic changes: the true pyramid, as seen in 1951, changed into a distorted figure (no apparent differences between 0 and 14 years of age). Both children and youngsters lost representation on age structure, while adult and older individuals gain representation. During 1905-1938, the birth rate was 43% and by the end of 2005 it will be 22%. Mortality dropped a 75%, falling from 23% in 1905-1912 to 6% in 1885-1993, but it rose a 33% after 1993, and will reach 8.3% in 2010. In 1938, the urban population was 31% and in 2002, 72%. Mortality discriminated by cause changed in a significant manner during the second half of the 20th century. Infectious-parasitic and perinatal diseases, the main cause of death by the end of the 1960-1969 decade, lost importance on behalf of degenerative diseases, accidents and homicides which are now the most frequent. Conclusions. Our present population density is relatively low. The demographic change has been profound but the velocity has been more important. The aging of population has serious implications for the country. These notable modifications in Colombian families raise challenges in all social fields. The demographic and epidemiological changes (structure and level of morbimortality) require a serious analysis, and easy explanations do not have to be accepted without repairs.

  13. Ecosystem stewardship: sustainability strategies for a rapidly changing planet (United States)

    F. Stuart Chapin; Stephen R. Carpenter; Gary P. Kofinas; Carl Folke; Nick Abel; William C. Clark; Per Olsson; D. Mark Stafford Smith; Brian Walker; Oran R. Young; Fikret Berkes; Reinette Biggs; J. Morgan Grove; Rosamond L. Naylor; Evelyn Pinkerton; Will Steffen; Frederick J. Swanson


    Ecosystem stewardship is an action-oriented framework intended to foster the social-ecological sustainability of a rapidly changing planet. Recent developments identify three strategies that make optimal use of current understanding in an environment of inevitable uncertainty and abrupt change: reducing the magnitude of, and exposure and sensitivity to, known stresses...

  14. Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds. (United States)

    Barbraud, Christophe; Rivalan, Philippe; Inchausti, Pablo; Nevoux, Marie; Rolland, Virginie; Weimerskirch, Henri


    1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth's climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics

  15. Rethinking species’ ability to cope with rapid climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hof, Christian; Levinsky, Irina; Bastos Araujo, Miguel


    Ongoing climate change is assumed to be exceptional because of its unprecedented velocity. However, new geophysical research suggests that dramatic climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene occurred extremely rapid, over just a few years. These abrupt climatic changes may have been even faster...... than contemporary ones, but relatively few continent-wide extinctions of species have been documented for these periods. This raises questions about the ability of extant species to adapt to ongoing climate change. We propose that the advances in geophysical research challenge current views about...... species' ability to cope with climate change, and that lessons must be learned for modelling future impacts of climate change on species....

  16. Decline, Adaptation or Transformation:New Perspectives on Demographic Change in Resource Peripheries in Australia and Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dean B. Carson


    Full Text Available Many sparsely populated resource peripheries in developed countries are perceived to suffer from periods of demographic decline due to loss of employment opportunities and services, youth out-migration and population ageing. While these trends tend to apply at broad regional scales and for particular time periods, diverse patterns of demographic change may be apparent if different spatial, temporal and social scales of analysis are taken into consideration. Comparing the experiences of two case study regions in northern Sweden and inland South Australia, this paper proposes an alternative conceptual framework to the “discourse of decline”, which could be used to examine the nuances of demographic change within resource peripheries. The framework includes spatial scale considerations that contrast broader regional demographic patterns with the experiences of sub-regions and individual settlements. It also includes temporal scale aspects, examining demographic change over different time periods to understand the pace, duration and frequency of population growth and decline. The framework finally includes social unit considerations, emphasising that demographic change affects different social groups in different ways. The results of the case studies suggest that considering demographic change as adaptation or transformation rather than decline may be more useful for identifying new – and qualitatively different – demographic pathways that emerge over time.


    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singla, Rashmi; Varma, Ambika


    Indians, mostly skilled, are invited to fill gaps in the Danish labour market in the last decade, changing the demographics and dynamics of the Indian diaspora. The paper covers this diaspora, also historically, focusing on the psychosocial aspects of transnationalism and intimate relationship...... formation. The theoretical framework combines life course perspective, processes of interconnectedness and inclusion/exclusion Studies of Indian couples and ‘mixed couples’ consisting of Indians in exogamous marriages with Danish spouses, form the empirical part. The results show Indian diaspora...

  18. Climate change underlies global demographic, genetic, and cultural transitions in pre-Columbian southern Peru. (United States)

    Fehren-Schmitz, Lars; Haak, Wolfgang; Mächtle, Bertil; Masch, Florian; Llamas, Bastien; Cagigao, Elsa Tomasto; Sossna, Volker; Schittek, Karsten; Isla Cuadrado, Johny; Eitel, Bernhard; Reindel, Markus


    Several archaeological studies in the Central Andes have pointed at the temporal coincidence of climatic fluctuations (both long- and short-term) and episodes of cultural transition and changes of socioeconomic structures throughout the pre-Columbian period. Although most scholars explain the connection between environmental and cultural changes by the impact of climatic alterations on the capacities of the ecosystems inhabited by pre-Columbian cultures, direct evidence for assumed demographic consequences is missing so far. In this study, we address directly the impact of climatic changes on the spatial population dynamics of the Central Andes. We use a large dataset of pre-Columbian mitochondrial DNA sequences from the northern Rio Grande de Nasca drainage (RGND) in southern Peru, dating from ∼840 BC to 1450 AD. Alternative demographic scenarios are tested using Bayesian serial coalescent simulations in an approximate Bayesian computational framework. Our results indicate migrations from the lower coastal valleys of southern Peru into the Andean highlands coincident with increasing climate variability at the end of the Nasca culture at ∼640 AD. We also find support for a back-migration from the highlands to the coast coincident with droughts in the southeastern Andean highlands and improvement of climatic conditions on the coast after the decline of the Wari and Tiwanaku empires (∼1200 AD), leading to a genetic homogenization in the RGND and probably southern Peru as a whole.

  19. Demographic Change, Economic Conditions, and the Murder Rate: The Case of the Colombia, 1990 to 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Eduardo Sandoval


    Full Text Available Recent changes in the Colombian homicides rate not consider the change in the age distribution, inflation and unemployment that can explain how misery affects homicides in the long run. Therefore, from a relevant time period for Colombia can be analyzed if recent demographic transition given by a higher percentage of young population is a robust predictor of observed changes in the homicide rate along with a corresponding measure of misery given for the sum between unemployment rates and local inflation. This helps explain the long-term relationship between the age distribution in Colombia and rising homicide rates in the 90s along with the decrease in the latter part of the 2000s. It was found that there is a relationship between age and crime, as suggested by the classical literature and there is a long-term relationship between the homicides, misery and youth population density.

  20. Different routes of demographic changes in former Eastern bloc states at the turn of the 21st century based on the examples of Poland and Ukraine (United States)

    Flaga, Małgorzata


    The article concerns the most important demographic processes that took place in two post-communist countries, Poland and Ukraine, after 1990. These countries differ in terms of economic changes that they have gone through so far. In case of Poland we may consider it as a success in reforming the economy, despite the fact that it caused certain negative social phenomena, e.g. large unemployment. On the other hand, in Ukraine, economic crisis was not stopped, but it is also deepening and its results have become significant modifiers of population processes. The changes in population number, natural growth and migration in both countries are the subjects of detailed analyses. They were presented in the context of the "secondary demographic transition", which Poland and Ukraine entered rapidly at the beginning of 1990, along with economic transformation and social changes.

  1. Potential (mis)match?: Marriage Markets amidst Socio-Demographic Change in India, 2005–2050 (United States)

    Kashyap, Ridhi; Esteve, Albert; García-Román, Joan


    We explore the impact of socio-demographic change on marriage patterns in India by examining the hypothetical consequences of applying three sets of marriage pairing propensities – contemporary patterns by age, by age and education, and changing propensities that allow for greater educational homogamy and reduced educational asymmetries – to future population projections. Future population prospects for India indicate three trends that will impact marriage patterns: i) female-deficit in sex ratios at birth; ii) declining birth cohort size; iii) female educational expansion. Existing literature posits declining marriage rates for men arising from skewed sex ratios at birth (SRB) in India’s population. In addition to skewed SRBs, India’s population will experience female educational expansion in the coming decades. Female educational expansion and its impact on marriage patterns must be jointly considered with demographic changes, given educational differentials and asymmetries in union formation that exist in India, as across much of the world. We systematize contemporary pairing propensities using data from the 2005–2006 Indian National Family Health Survey and the 2004 Socio-Economic Survey and apply these and the third set of changing propensities to IIASA/VID multi-state population projections by educational attainment using an iterative longitudinal projection procedure. If today’s age patterns of marriage are viewed against age-sex population composition until 2050, men experience declining marriage prevalence. However, when education is included, women, particularly those with higher education experience a more salient rise in non-marriage. Significant changes in pairing patterns towards greater levels of educational homogamy and gender symmetry can counteract a marked rise in non-marriage. PMID:25604846

  2. Method for producing rapid pH changes (United States)

    Clark, J.H.; Campillo, A.J.; Shapiro, S.L.; Winn, K.R.

    A method of initiating a rapid pH change in a solution comprises irradiating the solution with an intense flux of electromagnetic radiation of a frequency which produces a substantial pK change to a compound in solution. To optimize the resulting pH change, the compound being irradiated in solution should have an excited state lifetime substantially longer than the time required to establish an excited state acid-base equilibrium in the solution. Desired pH changes can be accomplished in nanoseconds or less by means of picosecond pulses of laser radiation.

  3. Rapid Communication: v= 2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Pramana – Journal of Physics; Volume 89; Issue 5. Rapid Communication: Δ υ = 2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3 − states and B ( E 3 ) systematics of Sn isotopes. BHOOMIKA MAHESHWARI SWATI GARG ASHOK KUMAR JAIN. Research Article Volume 89 Issue 5 November 2017 Article ID 75 ...

  4. A population-based longitudinal study on the implication of demographic changes on blood donation and transfusion demand. (United States)

    Greinacher, Andreas; Weitmann, Kerstin; Schönborn, Linda; Alpen, Ulf; Gloger, Doris; Stangenberg, Wolfgang; Stüpmann, Kerstin; Greger, Nico; Kiefel, Volker; Hoffmann, Wolfgang


    Transfusion safety includes the risk of transmission of pathogens, appropriate transfusion thresholds, and sufficient blood supply. All industrialized countries experience major ongoing demographic changes resulting from low birth rates and aging of the baby boom generation. Little evidence exists about whether future blood supply and demand correlate with these demographic changes. The ≥50% decline in birth rate in the eastern part of Germany after 1990 facilitates systematic study of the effects of pronounced demographic changes on blood donation and demand. In this prospective, 10-year longitudinal study, we enrolled all whole blood donors and all patients receiving red blood cell transfusions in the state of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania. We compared projections made in 2005 based on the projected demographic changes with: (1) number and age distribution of blood donors and transfusion recipients in 2015 and (2) blood demand within specific age and patient groups. Blood donation rates closely followed the demographic changes, showing a decrease of -18% (vs projected -23%). In contrast, 2015 transfusion rates were -21.3% lower than projected. We conclude that although changes in demography are highly predictive for the blood supply, transfusion demand is strongly influenced by changes in medical practice. Given ongoing pronounced demographic change, regular monitoring of the donor/recipient age distributions and associated impact on blood demand/supply relationships is required to allow strategic planning to prevent blood shortages or overproduction.

  5. Rural AIDS Diagnoses in Florida: Changing Demographics and Factors Associated With Survival (United States)

    Trepka, Mary Jo; Niyonsenga, Theophile; Maddox, Lorene M.; Lieb, Spencer


    Purpose To compare demographic characteristics and predictors of survival of rural residents diagnosed with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) with those of urban residents. Methods Florida surveillance data for people diagnosed with AIDS during 1993–2007 were merged with 2000 Census data using ZIP code tabulation areas (ZCTA). Rural status was classified based on the ZCTA’s rural-urban commuting area classification. Survival rates were compared between rural and urban areas using survival curves and Cox proportional hazards models controlling for demographic, clinical, and area-level socioeconomic and health care access factors. Findings Of the 73,590 people diagnosed with AIDS, 1,991 (2.7%) resided in rural areas. People in the most recent rural cohorts were more likely than those in earlier cohorts to be female, non-Hispanic black, older, and have a reported transmission mode of heterosexual sex. There were no statistically significant differences in the 3-, 5-, or 10-year survival rates between rural and urban residents. Older age at the time of diagnosis, diagnosis during the 1993–1995 period, other/unknown transmission mode, and lower CD4 count/percent categories were associated with lower survival in both rural and urban areas. In urban areas only, being non-Hispanic black or Hispanic, being US born, more poverty, less community social support, and lower physician density were also associated with lower survival. Conclusions In rural Florida, the demographic characteristics of people diagnosed with AIDS have been changing, which may necessitate modifications in the delivery of AIDS-related services. Rural residents diagnosed with AIDS did not have a significant survival disadvantage relative to urban residents. PMID:23802929

  6. Adjustment, social sectors, and demographic change in Sub-Saharan Africa. (United States)

    Ekouevi, K; Adepoju, A


    This discussion concludes that the economic crises of the 1980s resulted in a halt to the social and economic development of sub-Saharan Africa. Employment, health, and education sectors all deteriorated under structural adjustment programs (SAPs) and poor economic performance. SAPs are considered inadequate solutions to long-term problems. Economic crises were found to affect countries differently in their demographic impact. Delayed demographic transition occurred both through economic development as a prerequisite and as a result of poor economic development. Case studies of each country are considered the appropriate geographic unit of analysis of demographic change rather than regional or comparative studies. The economic crises in sub-Saharan Africa occurred due to both external (commodity prices, high real interest rates, and decreasing net capital flows) and internal distortions (strategies of development such as import substitution, neglect of the agricultural sector, and government control of prices and trade). The unfavorable external context reduced export prices and earnings while increasing the costs of imports. Internal controls were detrimental to farmers. During the 1970s and 1980s African countries experienced declines in both the volume and value of exports, increases in import volume, and imbalances in the balance of payments. Large domestic borrowing and foreign borrowing was done by governments, which was at the expense of the private sector. Economic management and corruption were rampant. SAPs restrained demand, reduced public expenditures, adjusted exchange rates, contracted the size of the public sector, liberalized trade, deregulated the interest rate, stimulated domestic production, and used market forces for balancing optimum allocation of resources. SAPs were the fix for trade imbalances and government debt. Development was slowed or stopped. During 1980-87 spending on health care, education, and infrastructure was drastically reduced

  7. Major rapid weight loss induces changes in cardiac repolarization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vedel-Larsen, Esben; Iepsen, Eva Winning; Lundgren, Julie


    INTRODUCTION: Obesity is associated with increased all-cause mortality, but weight loss may not decrease cardiovascular events. In fact, very low calorie diets have been linked to arrhythmias and sudden death. The QT interval is the standard marker for cardiac repolarization, but T-wave morphology...... analysis has been suggested as a more sensitive method to identify changes in cardiac repolarization. We examined the effect of a major and rapid weight loss on T-wave morphology. METHODS AND RESULTS: Twenty-six individuals had electrocardiograms (ECG) taken before and after eight weeks of weight loss......A1c (pweight loss induces changes in cardiac repolarization. Monitoring of MCS during calorie restriction makes it possible to detect repolarization changes with higher discriminative power than the QT-interval during major rapid weight...

  8. Knowledge Management Impacts on Organizational Proficiency in a Changing Demographic Nuclear Industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heler, D.; Marco, J. A.


    Full text: The US nuclear energy industry has focused on workforce development and planning efforts over the past decade in anticipation of a large number of retirements taking place. Efforts by the US nuclear industry to replace retiring workers with younger staff to close the knowledge gap and improve organizational proficiency have started. This is resulting in a bimodal workforce distribution, which means that the industry has two workforce peaks. The 2015 Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) Workforce Pipeline Survey results illustrate a significant number of experienced and young professionals, with fewer employees in the mid-career age group. This workforce distribution can pose a challenge for US nuclear industry to ensure it has effectively implemented knowledge management elements (People, Process, and Technology) to improve organizational proficiency and maintain critical skill sets. This technical brief will examine how one US nuclear plant performance dropped, which in part was a result of a significant demographic shift in their organizations. In addition, the paper will explore the challenge organizations may have as they undergo demographic changes without proper knowledge management programmes in place. (author

  9. A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants (United States)

    Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Siewert, Wolfgang; Casper, Brenda B.; Tielbörger, Katja


    Desert species respond strongly to infrequent, intense pulses of precipitation. Consequently, indigenous flora has developed a rich repertoire of life-history strategies to deal with fluctuations in resource availability. Examinations of how future climate change will affect the biota often forecast negative impacts, but these—usually correlative—approaches overlook precipitation variation because they are based on averages. Here, we provide an overview of how variable precipitation affects perennial and annual desert plants, and then implement an innovative, mechanistic approach to examine the effects of precipitation on populations of two desert plant species. This approach couples robust climatic projections, including variable precipitation, with stochastic, stage-structured models constructed from long-term demographic datasets of the short-lived Cryptantha flava in the Colorado Plateau Desert (USA) and the annual Carrichtera annua in the Negev Desert (Israel). Our results highlight these populations' potential to buffer future stochastic precipitation. Population growth rates in both species increased under future conditions: wetter, longer growing seasons for Cryptantha and drier years for Carrichtera. We determined that such changes are primarily due to survival and size changes for Cryptantha and the role of seed bank for Carrichtera. Our work suggests that desert plants, and thus the resources they provide, might be more resilient to climate change than previously thought. PMID:23045708

  10. Demographic changes and marker properties affect detection of human population differentiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanichwankul Kittipong


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Differentiating genetically between populations is valuable for admixture and population stratification detection and in understanding population history. This is easy to achieve for major continental populations, but not for closely related populations. It has been claimed that a large marker panel is necessary to reliably distinguish populations within a continent. We investigated whether empirical genetic differentiation could be accomplished efficiently among three Asian populations (Hmong, Thai, and Chinese using a small set of highly variable markers (15 tetranucleotide and 17 dinucleotide repeats. Results Hmong could be differentiated from Thai and Chinese based on multi-locus genotypes, but Thai and Chinese were indistinguishable from each other. We found significant evidence for a recent population bottleneck followed by expansion in the Hmong that was not present in the Thai or Chinese. Tetranucleotide repeats were less useful than dinucleotide repeat markers in distinguishing between major continental populations (Asian, European, and African while both successfully distinguished Hmong from Thai and Chinese. Conclusion Demographic history contributes significantly to robust detection of intracontinental population structure. Populations having experienced a rapid size reduction may be reliably distinguished as a result of a genetic drift -driven redistribution of population allele frequencies. Tetranucleotide markers, which differ from dinucleotide markers in mutation mechanism and rate, are similar in information content to dinucleotide markers in this situation. These factors should be considered when identifying populations suitable for gene mapping studies and when interpreting interpopulation relationships based on microsatellite markers.

  11. Perceptual classification in a rapidly-changing environment


    Summerfield, Christopher; Behrens, Timothy E.; Koechlin, Etienne


    Humans and monkeys can learn to classify perceptual information in a statistically optimal fashion if the functional groupings remain stable over many hundreds of trials, but little is known about categorisation when the environment changes rapidly. Here, we used a combination of computational modelling and functional neuroimaging to understand how humans classify visual stimuli drawn from categories whose mean and variance jumped unpredictably. Models based on optimal learning (Bayesian mode...

  12. Demographic Changes in the U.S. into the Twenty-First Century: Their Impact on Sport Marketing. (United States)

    Hofacre, Susan; And Others


    Issues confronting sport marketers as U.S. demographics change include more older people, ethnic groups, working women, and minorities; television hours watched; and changes in family makeup. As the changes affect marketing, sport marketing will have to become more efficient in defining and reaching different markets. (SM)

  13. The Chinese experience of rapid modernization: sociocultural changes, psychological consequences?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiahong eSun


    Full Text Available Mainland China has undergone profound changes dating back to the nineteenth century, including a contemporary period of rapid modernization that began in the 1980s. The result has been dramatic social, cultural, and economic shifts impacting the daily lives of Chinese people. In this paper, we explore the psychological implications of sociocultural transformation in China, emphasizing two central themes. First, rising individualism: findings from social and developmental psychology suggest that China’s rapid development has been accompanied by ever-increasing adherence to individualistic values. Second, rising rates of depression: findings from psychiatric epidemiology point to increasing prevalence of depression over this same time period, particularly in rural settings. We argue that links between sociocultural and psychological shifts in China can be usefully studied through a cultural psychology lens, emphasizing the mutual constitution of culture, mind, and brain. In particular, we note that the link between social change, individualism, and rising mental illness deserves careful attention. Our review suggests that shifting values and socialization practices shape emotion norms of concealment and display, with implications for depressive symptom presentation. The challenge comes with interpretation. Increasing prevalence rates of depression may indeed be a general response to the rapidity of sociocultural change, or a specific consequence of rising individualism—but may also result from increasingly ‘Western’ patterns of symptom presentation, or improvements in diagnostic practice. We conclude by considering the challenges posed to standard universal models of psychological phenomena.

  14. The Chinese Experience of Rapid Modernization: Sociocultural Changes, Psychological Consequences? (United States)

    Sun, Jiahong; Ryder, Andrew G.


    Mainland China has undergone profound changes dating back to the nineteenth century, including a contemporary period of rapid modernization that began in the 1980s. The result has been dramatic social, cultural, and economic shifts impacting the daily lives of Chinese people. In this paper, we explore the psychological implications of sociocultural transformation in China, emphasizing two central themes. First, rising individualism: findings from social and developmental psychology suggest that China’s rapid development has been accompanied by ever-increasing adherence to individualistic values. Second, rising rates of depression: findings from psychiatric epidemiology point to increasing prevalence of depression over this same time period, particularly in rural settings. We argue that links between sociocultural and psychological shifts in China can be usefully studied through a cultural psychology lens, emphasizing the mutual constitution of culture, mind, and brain. In particular, we note that the link between social change, individualism, and rising mental illness deserves careful attention. Our review suggests that shifting values and socialization practices shape emotion norms of concealment and display, with implications for depressive symptom presentation. The challenge comes with interpretation. Increasing prevalence rates of depression may indeed be a general response to the rapidity of sociocultural change, or a specific consequence of rising individualism—but may also result from increasingly ‘Western’ patterns of symptom presentation, or improvements in diagnostic practice. We conclude by considering the challenges posed to standard universal models of psychological phenomena. PMID:27092093

  15. Recently Identified Changes to the Demographics of the Current and Future Geoscience Workforce (United States)

    Wilson, C. E.; Keane, C. M.; Houlton, H. R.


    The American Geosciences Institute's (AGI) Geoscience Workforce Program collects and analyzes data pertaining to the changes in the supply, demand, and training of the geoscience workforce. Much of these trends are displayed in detail in AGI's Status of the Geoscience Workforce reports. In May, AGI released the Status of the Geoscience Workforce 2014, which updates these trends since the 2011 edition of this report. These updates highlight areas of change in the education of future geoscientists from K-12 through graduate school, the transition of geoscience graduates into early-career geoscientists, the dynamics of the current geoscience workforce, and the future predictions of the changes in the availability of geoscience jobs. Some examples of these changes include the increase in the number of states that will allow a high school course of earth sciences as a credit for graduation and the increasing importance of two-year college students as a talent pool for the geosciences, with over 25% of geoscience bachelor's graduates attending a two-year college for at least a semester. The continued increase in field camp hinted that these programs are at or reaching capacity. The overall number of faculty and research staff at four-year institutions increased slightly, but the percentages of academics in tenure-track positions continued to slowly decrease since 2009. However, the percentage of female faculty rose in 2013 for all tenure-track positions. Major geoscience industries, such as petroleum and mining, have seen an influx of early-career geoscientists. Demographic trends in the various industries in the geoscience workforce forecasted a shortage of approximately 135,000 geoscientists in the next decade—a decrease from the previously predicted shortage of 150,000 geoscientists. These changes and other changes identified in the Status of the Geoscience Workforce will be addressed in this talk.

  16. Managing health care organizations in an age of rapid change. (United States)

    Benjamin, S; al-Alaiwat, S


    Health care managers find their work increasingly difficult, due in part to rapid environmental change that plagues organizational life. Management practices and attitudes that may have been appropriate in previous eras are ineffective today. A study was conducted among managers in the Ministry of Health, State of Bahrain, seeking information about current trends in the macro or external environment that affect the Ministry of Health, as well as internal environmental pressures that may be similar or different. This article provides a clear picture of the context in which managers perform their work and offers recommendations for coping with change in dynamic, complex organizations.

  17. Influence of demographic changes on the impact of vaccination against varicella and herpes zoster in Germany - a mathematical modelling study. (United States)

    Horn, Johannes; Damm, Oliver; Greiner, Wolfgang; Hengel, Hartmut; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E; Siedler, Anette; Ultsch, Bernhard; Weidemann, Felix; Wichmann, Ole; Karch, André; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T


    Epidemiological studies suggest that reduced exposure to varicella might lead to an increased risk for herpes zoster (HZ). Reduction of exposure to varicella is a consequence of varicella vaccination but also of demographic changes. We analyzed how the combination of vaccination programs and demographic dynamics will affect the epidemiology of varicella and HZ in Germany over the next 50 years. We used a deterministic dynamic compartmental model to assess the impact of different varicella and HZ vaccination strategies on varicella and HZ epidemiology in three demographic scenarios, namely the projected population for Germany, the projected population additionally accounting for increased immigration as observed in 2015/2016, and a stationary population. Projected demographic changes alone result in an increase of annual HZ cases by 18.3% and a decrease of varicella cases by 45.7% between 1990 and 2060. Independently of the demographic scenario, varicella vaccination reduces the cumulative number of varicella cases until 2060 by approximately 70%, but also increases HZ cases by 10%. Unlike the currently licensed live attenuated HZ vaccine, the new subunit vaccine candidate might completely counteract this effect. Relative vaccine effects were consistent across all demographic scenarios. Demographic dynamics will be a major determinant of HZ epidemiology in the next 50 years. While stationary population models are appropriate for assessing vaccination impact, models incorporating realistic population structures allow a direct comparison to surveillance data and can thus provide additional input for immunization decision-making and resource planning.

  18. Middle Holocene rapid environmental changes and human adaptation in Greece (United States)

    Lespez, Laurent; Glais, Arthur; Lopez-Saez, José-Antonio; Le Drezen, Yann; Tsirtsoni, Zoï; Davidson, Robert; Biree, Laetitia; Malamidou, Dimitra


    Numerous researchers discuss of the collapse of civilizations in response to abrupt climate change in the Mediterranean region. The period between 6500 and 5000 cal yr BP is one of the least studied episodes of rapid climate change at the end of the Late Neolithic. This period is characterized by a dramatic decline in settlement and a cultural break in the Balkans. High-resolution paleoenvironmental proxy data obtained in the Lower Angitis Valley enables an examination of the societal responses to rapid climatic change in Greece. Development of a lasting fluvio-lacustrine environment followed by enhanced fluvial activity is evident from 6000 cal yr BP. Paleoecological data show a succession of dry events at 5800-5700, 5450 and 5000-4900 cal yr BP. These events correspond to incursion of cold air masses to the eastern Mediterranean, confirming the climatic instability of the middle Holocene climate transition. Two periods with farming and pastural activities (6300-5600 and 5100-4700 cal BP) are evident. The intervening period is marked by environmental changes, but the continuous occurrence of anthropogenic taxa suggests the persistence of human activities despite the absence of archaeological evidence. The environmental factors alone were not sufficient to trigger the observed societal changes.

  19. Demographic Change in the American Geophysical Union's United States Membership, 2006-2014 (United States)

    Rhodes, D. D.


    AGU's demographic characteristics changed during the period 2006-2014 in response to the aging of the Baby Boom generation and an increase in the number of women geoscientists. This analysis deals only with the portion of AGU's membership with mailing addresses within the US, a group that comprised 65% of the worldwide total in 2006 and 61% of the total membership in 2014. Using the US membership data that include both the members' birthdate and gender, a comparison of the population structures in 2006 and 2014 reveals characteristics of the changing US workforce. Since 2006, the percent of the US membership represented by the Baby Boom has decreased 5.2%, from 37.2% to 32.0%. That trend will continue for the next 20 years and the rate will accelerate before slowing again. At the same time the Boomers are decreasing in number, the percentage of the membership represented by the more recent age-cohorts (born 1965-1989) has grown. For example, in 2006, the 1985-1989 cohort was barely represented (0.14%). By February 2014, the cohort had become 8.25% of the U.S. membership. The four cohorts covering birth years 1965 through 1984, each increased slightly in size. In addition, each had a larger number of women, reflecting AGU's increased female membership from 22.5% to 25.3%. The 1985-1989 cohort is somewhat smaller than the previous four cohorts. If the smaller size of this represents a reversal of the growth trend over the last 25 years, the implications for the size of the US workforce are important. Perhaps the most significant change in the demographic structure of AGU's US membership is that the general shape of the age-gender diagram, while still asymmetrical because of the larger number of men, is becoming more straight sided due to the similar size of recent cohorts. This shape is characteristic of stable populations when dealing with self-reproducing groups. The implications for the future of a scientific society are less clear, but the cause reflects a period

  20. On being a scientist in a rapidly changing world. (United States)

    Mandel, I D


    The practice of biological science has changed dramatically since mid-century, reshaped not only by a rapid series of landmark discoveries, but also by governmental directives, institutional policies, and public attitudes. Until 1964, the major influences were the mentor, who provided direction and indoctrination into the culture of science, and in dentistry, the newly established NIDR, which fueled the research engine with an expanding research and training program. The 1965-74 period witnessed the advent of the Institutional Review Board, an increased social involvement of biological scientists, and a recognition of the need for biological and physical safeguards in the conduct of research. The most turbulent years were 1975-89, when there was a confluence of animal rights activism and regulation, growing concerns with scientific fraud and publication malpractice, and the stresses and strains (and opportunities) resulting from the rapid expansion of the academic-industrial complex. The current period is characterized by rapid pace, high volume, and an increased depth and breadth of knowledge-a major change in scale in the conduct of science. It is an exciting time but one in which ethical issues are multiplying. Attention must be paid.

  1. Rapid Structural Design Change Evaluation with AN Experiment Based FEM (United States)

    Chu, C.-H.; Trethewey, M. W.


    The work in this paper proposes a dynamic structural design model that can be developed in a rapid fashion. The approach endeavours to produce a simplified FEM developed in conjunction with an experimental modal database. The FEM is formulated directly from the geometry and connectivity used in an experimental modal test using beam/frame elements. The model sacrifices fine detail for a rapid development time. The FEM is updated at the element level so the dynamic response replicates the experimental results closely. The physical attributes of the model are retained, making it well suited to evaluate the effect of potential design changes. The capabilities are evaluated in a series of computational and laboratory tests. First, a study is performed with a simulated cantilever beam with a variable mass and stiffness distribution. The modal characteristics serve as the updating target with random noise added to simulate experimental uncertainty. A uniformly distributed FEM is developed and updated. The results show excellent results, all natural frequencies are within 0·001% with MAC values above 0·99. Next, the method is applied to predict the dynamic changes of a hardware portal frame structure for a radical design change. Natural frequency predictions from the original FEM differ by as much as almost 18% with reasonable MAC values. The results predicted from the updated model produce excellent results when compared to the actual hardware changes, the first five modal natural frequency difference is around 5% and the corresponding mode shapes producing MAC values above 0·98.

  2. Detecting recent changes in the demographic parameters of drosophilid populations from western and central Africa (United States)

    Bouiges, Axelle; Yassin, Amir; Ikogou, Maya; Lelarge, Clément; Sikoa, Axelle-Rolande; Mona, Stefano; Veuille, Michel


    Previous genetic studies showing evidence of past demographic changes in African drosophilids suggested that these populations had strongly responded to Quaternary climate changes. We surveyed nine species of Zaprionus, a drosophilid genus mostly present in Africa, in forests located between southern Senegal and Gabon. The mitochondrial COI gene showed contrasted levels of sequence variation across species. Populations of the only cosmopolitan species of the genus, Z. indianus, and of its closely related sibling species, Z. africanus, are highly polymorphic and appear to have undergone a continuous population expansion beginning about 130,000 years ago. Five less variable species probably underwent a population expansion beginning only about 20,000-30,000 years ago. One of them, Z. taronus, was significantly structured between forest blocks. The last two species were nearly monomorphic, probably due to infection by Wolbachia. These results are similar to those obtained in three species from the melanogaster subgroup, and may be typical of the responses of African drosophilid populations to glacial cycles.

  3. Stability and change in alcohol habits of different socio-demographic subgroups--a cohort study. (United States)

    Sydén, Lovisa; Wennberg, Peter; Forsell, Yvonne; Romelsjö, Anders


    Stability in alcohol habits varies over time and in subgroups, but there are few longitudinal studies assessing stability in alcohol habits by socio-demographic subgroups and potential predictors of stability and change. The aim was to study stability and change in alcohol habits by sex, age, and socio-economic position (SEP). Data derived from two longitudinal population based studies in Sweden; the PART study comprising 19 457 individuals aged 20-64 years in 1998-2000, and the Stockholm Public Health Cohort (SPHC) with 50 067 individuals aged 18-84 years in 2002. Both cohorts were followed-up twice; PART 2000-2003 and 2010, and SPHC 2007 and 2010. Alcohol habits were measured with the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT), and with normal weekly alcohol consumption (NWAC). Stability in alcohol habits was measured with intraclass correlation. Odds ratios were estimated in multinomial logistic regression analysis to predict stability in alcohol habits. For the two drinking measures there were no consistent patterns of stability in alcohol habits by sex or educational level. The stability was higher for older age groups and self-employed women. To be a man aged 30-39 at baseline predicted both increase and decrease in alcohol habits. The findings illustrate higher stability in alcohol habits with increasing age and among self-employed women with risky alcohol habits. To be a man and the age 30-39 predicted change in alcohol habits. No conclusive pattern of socio-economic position as predictor of change in alcohol habits was found and other studies of potential predictors seem warranted.

  4. Diversity as valued and troubled: social identities and demographic categories in understandings of rapid urban growth in Vanuatu. (United States)

    Widmer, Alexandra


    This paper deals with the simultaneous mainstreaming and diversification of ni-Vanuatu social categories associated with the ways in which population growth is understood as a possible crisis in both demographic knowledge and everyday ni-Vanuatu knowledge. The author is interested in understanding the downplaying but primarily the amplification of difference with respect to place, generation and gender identities. The relationship between reproduction, social reproduction and the multiple meanings of modernity is at issue. In the expert knowledge of demography that proffers advice for the ni-Vanuatu state, it is the lack of modern development - in the form of adequate biomedical birth control, western education, and the equality of women - that is the implicit cause of population growth. Yet, many ni-Vanuatu see population growth as tied to the troubles that arise from the dilution of traditional social forms: there is too much modernity. In both demographic and ni-Vanuatu everyday narrations of the potential population crisis, diversification and mainstreaming take place and vulnerabilities are produced.

  5. Growth-based Theories for Declining Regions? A Note on Conceptualisations of Demographic Change for Regional Economic Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anke Matuschewski


    Full Text Available This article aims to critically assess the economic growth paradigm, which typically underlies most approaches to regional policymaking for demographic change. While population losses, ageing and outmigration – i.e. phenomena that are addressed as demographic change – have become a matter of urgency for many European regions, most regional economic development theories remain silent about the population decline affecting the economic growth and development prospects of regions. Consequently, regional policies usually rely on the concept of economic growth, yet neglect the complexity and importance of demographic change and how it relates to the economic sphere. Due to this lack in nuance, we argue that regional policymaking fails to design adequate policy support for regions facing persistent demographic change and economic stagnation or decline as a result. Based on these observations, the paper examines a selection of regional economic development theories in search for alternative concepts of growth and development in the context of demographic change. To this aim, globalisation peripheries are introduced as a fruitful conceptual point of reference and, in combination with endogenous regional development theories, discussed as an alternative approach for regional policymaking.

  6. Changes in the Demographic Characteristics of the American Geophysical Union Membership, 2006-2010 (United States)

    Rhodes, D. D.


    Significant change occurred in the demographic properties of the American Geophysical Union membership during the period April 2006- January 2010. During this period AGU membership decreased from 48,332 to 38,847, a drop of 19.6%. Most of the change appears to have been driven by the aging membership of the Union, especially in the United States, and the effects of the global economic crisis on employment in all sectors of economy. Of the 38,847 members in January 2010, data on the birth year and gender were available for 33,610 members including 21,567 who reside in the United States. These data were compared to a similar data set captured in April 2006. The following observations are based on this subset of the total AGU membership for who country of residence and both age and gender are known. The number of AGU members residing in the United States decreased by 18.6% during the study period. As should be expected, the changes were not spread evenly between the genders or across birth-year cohorts. Membership among males decreased by 19%, while there were 17% fewer female members. The female cohorts that experienced the greatest losses were those including women from 30-40 years old (born 1970-1979). These data appear to echo multiple studies that show women leaving the sciences for gender-specific reasons. For the purposes of this analysis, the birth-year cohorts are divided into three groups. Members born prior to 1945 compose the oldest cohort. The Baby-Boom generation includes members born between 1945 and 1964. The youngest group includes members born from 1965 onward. Because of the very small number of women in the oldest group (only 4.7%) most of the change occurred among males. The total membership loss from this group was 1,140 members, 23% of the total. The largest change occurred among Baby Boomers. The group decreased by 2,760 members, accounting for 56% of the total decline in membership among US residents. Males accounted for most of the change (2

  7. How Rapid Change Affects Deltas in the Arctic Region (United States)

    Overeem, I.; Bendixen, M.


    Deltas form where the river drains into the ocean. Consequently, delta depositional processes are impacted by either changes in the respective river drainage basin or by changes in the regional marine environment. In a warming Arctic region rapid change has occurred over the last few decades in both the terrestrial domain as well as in the marine domain. Important terrestrial controls include 1) change in permafrost possibly destabilizing river banks, 2) strong seasonality of river discharge due to a short melting season, 3) high sediment supply if basins are extensively glaciated, 4) lake outbursts and ice jams favoring river flooding. Whereas in the Arctic marine domain sea ice loss promotes wave and storm surge impact, and increased longshore transport. We here ask which of these factors dominate any morphological change in Arctic deltas. First, we analyze hydrological data to assess change in Arctic-wide river discharge characteristics and timing, and sea ice concentration data to map changes in sea ice regime. Based on this observational analysis we set up a number of scenarios of change. We then model hypothetical small-scale delta formation considering change in these primary controls by setting up a numerical delta model, and combining it dynamically with a permafrost model. We find that for typical Greenlandic deltas changes in river forcing due to ice sheet melt dominate the morphological change, which is corroborated by mapping of delta progradation from aerial photos and satellite imagery. Whereas in other areas, along the North Slope and the Canadian Arctic small deltas are more stable or experienced retreat. Our preliminary coupled model allows us to further disentangle the impact of major forcing factors on delta evolution in high-latitude systems.

  8. The challenge of reconciling development objectives in the context of demographic change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Provo


    Full Text Available This paper considers whether the US Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC Asset-Based Development Initiative (ABDI reconciles economic development objectives in communities experiencing demographic change. Through a case study approach utilizing key informant interviews in Southwest Virginia communities and a review of ARC-funded projects, the authors consider two main questions. Did community leadership change or adapt to the program? Were new projects demonstrably different in objectives, content, or outcomes than past projects? Economic and demographic similarities between Alpine and Appalachian communities, particularly in the role of in-migrants, suggest that this study’s findings will be relevant for other mountain regions and could contribute to a conversation among international scholars of mountain development.Cet article cherche à déterminer si l’initiative de développement basé sur les ressources (ABDI, Asset-Based Development Initiative de la Commission régionale des Appalaches (ARC, Appalachian Regional Commission aux États-Unis réconcilie les objectifs de développement économique dans les communautés qui présentent un changement démographique. À travers des études de cas reposant sur des entretiens informatifs clés menés dans les communautés de la Virginie Occidentale et un examen de projets financés par l’ARC, les auteurs tentent de répondre à deux questions fondamentales : « Le leadership communautaire a-t-il évolué et s’est-il adapté au programme ? » et « Les nouveaux projets différaient-ils clairement, en termes d’objectifs, de contenu ou de résultats, des projets antérieurs ? ». Les similitudes économiques et démographiques entre les communautés alpines et appalachiennes, notamment en ce qui concerne le rôle des immigrants, suggèrent que les conclusions de cette étude seront pertinentes pour d’autres régions de montagnes et pourraient contribuer à un débat entre sp

  9. Cosmic rays linked to rapid mid-latitude cloud changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. A. Laken


    Full Text Available The effect of the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR flux on Earth's climate is highly uncertain. Using a novel sampling approach based around observing periods of significant cloud changes, a statistically robust relationship is identified between short-term GCR flux changes and the most rapid mid-latitude (60°–30° N/S cloud decreases operating over daily timescales; this signal is verified in surface level air temperature (SLAT reanalysis data. A General Circulation Model (GCM experiment is used to test the causal relationship of the observed cloud changes to the detected SLAT anomalies. Results indicate that the anomalous cloud changes were responsible for producing the observed SLAT changes, implying that if there is a causal relationship between significant decreases in the rate of GCR flux (~0.79 GU, where GU denotes a change of 1% of the 11-year solar cycle amplitude in four days and decreases in cloud cover (~1.9 CU, where CU denotes a change of 1% cloud cover in four days, an increase in SLAT (~0.05 KU, where KU denotes a temperature change of 1 K in four days can be expected. The influence of GCRs is clearly distinguishable from changes in solar irradiance and the interplanetary magnetic field. However, the results of the GCM experiment are found to be somewhat limited by the ability of the model to successfully reproduce observed cloud cover. These results provide perhaps the most compelling evidence presented thus far of a GCR-climate relationship. From this analysis we conclude that a GCR-climate relationship is governed by both short-term GCR changes and internal atmospheric precursor conditions.

  10. Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ross, Andrew; Damon Matthews, H


    Recent research has highlighted risks associated with the use of climate engineering as a method of stabilizing global temperatures, including the possibility of rapid climate warming in the case of abrupt removal of engineered radiative forcing. In this study, we have used a simple climate model to estimate the likely range of temperature changes associated with implementation and removal of climate engineering. In the absence of climate engineering, maximum annual rates of warming ranged from 0.015 to 0.07 deg. C/year, depending on the model's climate sensitivity. Climate engineering resulted in much higher rates of warming, with the temperature change in the year following the removal of climate engineering ranging from 0.13 to 0.76 deg. C. High rates of temperature change were sustained for two decades following the removal of climate engineering; rates of change of 0.5 (0.3,0.1) deg. C/decade were exceeded over a 20 year period with 15% (75%, 100%) likelihood. Many ecosystems could be negatively affected by these rates of temperature change; our results suggest that climate engineering in the absence of deep emissions cuts could arguably constitute increased risk of dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system under the criteria laid out in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

  11. Changing maternity leave policy: short-term effects on fertility rates and demographic variables in Germany. (United States)

    Thyrian, Jochen René; Fendrich, Konstanze; Lange, Anja; Haas, Johannes-Peter; Zygmunt, Marek; Hoffmann, Wolfgang


    Changes in reproductive behaviour and decreasing fertility rates have recently led to policy actions that attempt to counteract these developments. Evidence on the efficacy of such policy interventions, however, is limited. The present analysis examines fertility rates and demographic variables of a population in Germany in response to new maternity leave regulations, which were introduced in January 2007. As part of a population-based survey of neonates in Pomerania (SNiP), all births in the study region from the period 23 months prior to January 1st, 2007 until 23 months afterwards were examined. Crude Birth Rates (CBR) per month, General Fertility Rates (GFR) per month, parity and sociodemographic variables were compared using bivariate techniques. Logistic regression analysis was performed. No statistically significant difference in the CBR or GFR after Jan. 1st, 2007 was found. There were statistically significant differences in other demographic variables, however. The proportion of mothers who (a) were employed full-time before pregnancy; (b) came from a higher socioeconomic status; and (c) had higher income levels all increased after January 1st, 2007. The magnitude of these effects was higher in multigravid women. Forward stepwise logistic regression found an odds ratio of 1.79 for women with a family income of more than 3000 euro to give birth after the new law was introduced. This is the first analysis of population-based data that examines fertility rates and sociodemographic variables in response to new legal regulations. No short-term effects on birth rates were detected, but there was a differential effect on the subgroup of multigravidae. The focus of this policy was to provide financial support, which is certainly important, but the complexity of having a child suggests that attitudinal and motivational aspects also need to be taken into account. Furthermore, these analyses were only able to evaluate the short-term consequences of the policy

  12. Industrialization, urbanization and demographic change in England; Igirisu ni okeru kogyoka toshika to jinko mondai

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yasumoto, M. [Komazawa University, Tokyo (Japan). Faculty of Economics


    In order to study the effects of progress in industrialization and urbanization on societies and economy, analyses were performed on the northern England in the period of the Industrial Revolution. The rapid expansion of the city of Leeds in the 1780`s and on had brought about the increase in employment opportunities in the suburban farming villages, as well as drop in matrimonial age in agricultural and coal mine workers, and the rapid population increase. Housing conditions for those workers who had flown into the city from agricultural villages in a large number were of very poor quality, and their living standard was low. More than half of the patients visiting the charity hospital in Leeds City came from the urban area, with industrial accidents such as injuries in young workers noticed remarkably high. Many women were included in them, from which the progress in mechanization of the textile industry in Leeds and its surrounding areas can well be imagined. The attributes of households, families, and population were divided into diverse structures and hierarchies, according to the residential construction form and work income earner rates in family constituting members were also various. The development urbanization and industrialization had given diversified effects on households, families, population, and life cycles in city dwellers through changes in housing environments. 2 refs., 1 fig., 7 tabs.

  13. Socio-demographic impacts on lane-changing response time and distance in work zone with Drivers' Smart Advisory System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Li


    Full Text Available Lane-changing behavior is an important component of traffic simulation. A lane-changing action is normally confined to a decision-making process of the task, and the action itself is sometimes assumed as an instantaneous event. Besides, the lane-changing behavior is based mostly on observable positions and speeds of other vehicles, rather than on vehicles' intentions. In practice, changing one lane requires about 5–6 s to complete. Existing lane-changing models do not comprehensively consider drivers' response to work zone lane-changing signs (or other related messages, if any. Furthermore, drivers' socio-demographics are normally not taken into account. With regard to this, fuzzy logic-based lane-changing models that consider drivers' socio-demographics were developed to improve the realism of lane-changing maneuvers in work zones. Drivers' Smart Advisory System (DSAS messages were provided as one of the scenarios. Drivers' responses, including reactions to work zone signs and DSAS messages, and actions to change lane, were investigated. Drivers' socio-demographic factors were primary independent variables, while Lane-Changing Response Time (LCRT and Distance (LCRD were defined as output variables. The model validation process yielded acceptable error ranges. To illustrate how these models can be used in traffic simulation, the LCRT and LCRD in work zones were estimated for five geo-locations with different socio-demographic specifications. Results show that the DSAS is able to instruct all drivers to prepare and change lanes earlier, thereby shortening the duration of changing lanes. Educational background and age are essential variables, whereas the impacts of gender on the output variables are indistinctive.

  14. Districts' Responses to Demographic Change: Making Sense of Race, Class, and Immigration in Political and Organizational Context (United States)

    Turner, Erica O.


    Many U.S. public school systems now face three large demographic shifts: rising poverty, the growing number of students from immigrant families, and increasing populations of students of color. Yet, we know little about how district policymakers react to these important changes or indeed the factors that consistently shape their policymaking.…

  15. Rapid treatment-induced brain changes in pediatric CRPS. (United States)

    Erpelding, Nathalie; Simons, Laura; Lebel, Alyssa; Serrano, Paul; Pielech, Melissa; Prabhu, Sanjay; Becerra, Lino; Borsook, David


    To date, brain structure and function changes in children with complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) as a result of disease and treatment remain unknown. Here, we investigated (a) gray matter (GM) differences between patients with CRPS and healthy controls and (b) GM and functional connectivity (FC) changes in patients following intensive interdisciplinary psychophysical pain treatment. Twenty-three patients (13 females, 9 males; average age ± SD = 13.3 ± 2.5 years) and 21 healthy sex- and age-matched controls underwent magnetic resonance imaging. Compared to controls, patients had reduced GM in the primary motor cortex, premotor cortex, supplementary motor area, midcingulate cortex, orbitofrontal cortex, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC), posterior cingulate cortex, precuneus, basal ganglia, thalamus, and hippocampus. Following treatment, patients had increased GM in the dlPFC, thalamus, basal ganglia, amygdala, and hippocampus, and enhanced FC between the dlPFC and the periaqueductal gray, two regions involved in descending pain modulation. Accordingly, our results provide novel evidence for GM abnormalities in sensory, motor, emotional, cognitive, and pain modulatory regions in children with CRPS. Furthermore, this is the first study to demonstrate rapid treatment-induced GM and FC changes in areas implicated in sensation, emotion, cognition, and pain modulation.

  16. Mobile work: Ergonomics in a rapidly changing work environment. (United States)

    Honan, Meg


    Places of work have been completely transformed by innovations in mobile work tools and ever-present access to internet data. This article characterizes use patterns and provides preliminary considerations for productive and comfortable use of common mobile devices. Two surveys described trends in mobile work. In the first, ergonomics professionals who oversee programs reported common mobile devices, their users and what data is accessed. The second, an end user survey, explored common activities performed on mobile devices, duration of use and locations where mobile work is common. The survey results provide a baseline data point for the status of mobile work in early 2014. Research indicates that additional risks have been introduced to the neck, thumbs and hands when using mobile devices. Possible trends regarding device use and work locations emerge. Intervention studies provide some direction for the practitioner. Practical strategies are outlined to reduce exposure intensity and duration. Contemporary mobile work presents tremendous change and opportunity for ergonomists and researchers to keep pace with fitting the changing models of work to the person. Continued research is needed on current mobile device use patterns to better understand ergonomic risk exposure in this rapidly changing realm.

  17. The impacts of rapid demographic transition on family structure and income inequality in Brazil, 1981-2011. (United States)

    Maia, Alexandre Gori; Sakamoto, Camila Strobl


    This study analysed the impact of changing family structure on income distribution. Specifically, it analysed how changes in the proportions of different categories of family in the population contributed to increases in the income of the richest and poorest social strata in Brazil, and the consequent impacts on income inequality. Rural and urban families were compared in order to understand how these dynamics had different impacts on more developed (urban) and less developed (rural) areas. The results emphasize how changes observed in family structure are more pronounced among the richest families, contributing to an increase in (i) the income of the richest families and (ii) income inequality between the richest and poorest families, as well as between urban and rural areas.

  18. Increasing weather-related impacts on European population under climate and demographic change (United States)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Cescatti, Alessandro; Batista e Silva, Filipe; Kovats, Sari R.; Feyen, Luc


    Over the last three decades the overwhelming majority of disasters have been caused by weather-related events. The observed rise in weather-related disaster losses has been largely attributed to increased exposure and to a lesser degree to global warming. Recent studies suggest an intensification in the climatology of multiple weather extremes in Europe over the coming decades in view of climate change, while urbanization continues. In view of these pressures, understanding and quantifying the potential impacts of extreme weather events on future societies is imperative in order to identify where and to what extent their livelihoods will be at risk in the future, and develop timely and effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies. Here we show a comprehensive assessment of single- and multi-hazard impacts on the European population until the year 2100. For this purpose, we developed a novel methodology that quantifies the human impacts as a multiplicative function of hazard, exposure and population vulnerability. We focus on seven of the most impacting weather-related hazards - including heat and cold waves, wildfires, droughts, river and coastal floods and windstorms - and evaluated their spatial and temporal variations in intensity and frequency under a business-as-usual climate scenario. Long-term demographic dynamics were modelled to assess exposure developments under a corresponding middle-of-the-road scenario. Vulnerability of humans to weather extremes was appraised based on more than 2300 records of weather-related disasters. The integration of these elements provides a range of plausible estimates of extreme weather-related risks for future European generations. Expected impacts on population are quantified in terms of fatalities and number of people exposed. We find a staggering rise in fatalities from extreme weather events, with the projected death toll by the end of the century amounting to more than 50 times the present number of people

  19. Spatial Pattern and Scale Influence Invader Demographic Response to Simulated Precipitation Change in an Annual Grassland Community.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meghan J Skaer Thomason

    Full Text Available It is important to predict which invasive species will benefit from future changes in climate, and thereby identify those invaders that need particular attention and prioritization of management efforts. Because establishment, persistence, and spread determine invasion success, this prediction requires detailed demographic information. Explicit study of the impact of pattern on demographic response is particularly important for species that are naturally patchy, such as the invasive grass, Aegilops triuncialis. In the northern California Coast Range, where climate change may increase or decrease mean annual rainfall, we conducted a field experiment to understand the interaction of climate change and local-scale patterning on the demography of A. triuncialis. We manipulated precipitation (reduced, ambient, or augmented, seed density, and seeding pattern. Demographic and environmental data were collected for three years following initial seeding. Pattern and scale figure prominently in the demographic response of A. triuncialis to precipitation manipulation. Pattern interacts with precipitation and seeding density in its influence on per-plant seed output. Although per-plot seed production was highest when seeds were not aggregated, per-plant seed output was higher in aggregated patches. Results suggest aggregation of invasive A. triuncialis reduces the detrimental impact of interspecific competition in its invaded community, and that interspecific competition per se has a stronger impact than intraspecific competition.

  20. Impact of Quaternary climatic changes and interspecific competition on the demographic history of a highly mobile generalist carnivore, the coyote. (United States)

    Koblmüller, Stephan; Wayne, Robert K; Leonard, Jennifer A


    Recurrent cycles of climatic change during the Quaternary period have dramatically affected the population genetic structure of many species. We reconstruct the recent demographic history of the coyote (Canis latrans) through the use of Bayesian techniques to examine the effects of Late Quaternary climatic perturbations on the genetic structure of a highly mobile generalist species. Our analysis reveals a lack of phylogeographic structure throughout the range but past population size changes correlated with climatic changes. We conclude that even generalist carnivorous species are very susceptible to environmental changes associated with climatic perturbations. This effect may be enhanced in coyotes by interspecific competition with larger carnivores.

  1. Altering plasma sodium concentration rapidly changes blood pressure during haemodialysis. (United States)

    Suckling, Rebecca J; Swift, Pauline A; He, Feng J; Markandu, Nirmala D; MacGregor, Graham A


    Plasma sodium is increased following each meal containing salt. There is an increasing interest in the effects of plasma sodium concentration, and it has been suggested that it may have direct effects on blood pressure (BP) and possibly influences endothelial function. Experimental increases of plasma sodium concentration rapidly raise BP even when extracellular volume falls. Ten patients with end-stage renal failure established on haemodialysis were studied during the first 2 h of dialysis without fluid removal during this period. They were randomized to receive haemodialysis with (i) dialysate sodium concentration prescribed to 135 mmol/L and (ii) 145 mmol/L in random order in a prospective, single-blinded crossover study. BP measurements and blood samples were taken every 30 min. Pre-dialysis sitting BP was 137/76 ± 7/3 mmHg. Lower dialysate sodium concentration (135 mmol/L) reduced plasma sodium concentration [139.49 ± 0.67 to 135.94 ± 0.52 mmol/L (P area under the curve (AUC) 15823.50 ± 777.15 (mmHg)min] compared with 145 mmol/L [AUC 17018.20 ± 1102.17 (mmHg)min], mean difference 1194.70 ± 488.41 (mmHg)min, P < 0.05. There was a significant positive relationship between change in plasma sodium concentration and change in systolic BP. This direct relationship suggests that a fall of 1 mmol/L in plasma sodium concentration would be associated with a 1.7 mmHg reduction in systolic BP (P < 0.05). The potential mechanism for the increase in BP seen with salt intake may be through small but significant changes in plasma sodium concentration.

  2. Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brian C. O' Neill


    This report describes results of the research project on "Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics". The overall objective of this project was to improve projections of energy demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions by taking into account demographic factors currently not incorporated in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of global climate change. We proposed to examine the potential magnitude of effects on energy demand of changes in the composition of populations by household characteristics for three countries: the U.S., China, and Indonesia. For each country, we planned to analyze household energy use survey data to estimate relationships between household characteristics and energy use; develop a new set of detailed household projections for each country; and combine these analyses to produce new projections of energy demand illustrating the potential importance of consideration of households.

  3. Will Climate Change, Genetic and Demographic Variation or Rat Predation Pose the Greatest Risk for Persistence of an Altitudinally Distributed Island Endemic?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Shapcott


    Full Text Available Species endemic to mountains on oceanic islands are subject to a number of existing threats (in particular, invasive species along with the impacts of a rapidly changing climate. The Lord Howe Island endemic palm Hedyscepe canterburyana is restricted to two mountains above 300 m altitude. Predation by the introduced Black Rat (Rattus rattus is known to significantly reduce seedling recruitment. We examined the variation in Hedyscepe in terms of genetic variation, morphology, reproductive output and demographic structure, across an altitudinal gradient. We used demographic data to model population persistence under climate change predictions of upward range contraction incorporating long-term climatic records for Lord Howe Island. We also accounted for alternative levels of rat predation into the model to reflect management options for control. We found that Lord Howe Island is getting warmer and drier and quantified the degree of temperature change with altitude (0.9 °C per 100 m. For H. canterburyana, differences in development rates, population structure, reproductive output and population growth rate were identified between altitudes. In contrast, genetic variation was high and did not vary with altitude. There is no evidence of an upward range contraction as was predicted and recruitment was greatest at lower altitudes. Our models predicted slow population decline in the species and that the highest altitude populations are under greatest threat of extinction. Removal of rat predation would significantly enhance future persistence of this species.

  4. Polar and brown bear genomes reveal ancient admixture and demographic footprints of past climate change (United States)

    Miller, Webb; Schuster, Stephan C.; Welch, Andreanna J.; Ratan, Aakrosh; Bedoya-Reina, Oscar C.; Zhao, Fangqing; Kim, Hie Lim; Burhans, Richard C.; Drautz, Daniela I.; Wittekindt, Nicola E.; Tomsho, Lynn P.; Ibarra-Laclette, Enrique; Herrera-Estrella, Luis; Peacock, Elizabeth; Farley, Sean; Sage, George K.; Rode, Karyn D.; Obbard, Martyn E.; Montiel, Rafael; Bachmann, Lutz; Ingólfsson, Ólafur; Aars, Jon; Mailund, Thomas; Wiig, Øystein; Talbot, Sandra L.; Lindqvist, Charlotte


    Polar bears (PBs) are superbly adapted to the extreme Arctic environment and have become emblematic of the threat to biodiversity from global climate change. Their divergence from the lower-latitude brown bear provides a textbook example of rapid evolution of distinct phenotypes. However, limited mitochondrial and nuclear DNA evidence conflicts in the timing of PB origin as well as placement of the species within versus sister to the brown bear lineage. We gathered extensive genomic sequence data from contemporary polar, brown, and American black bear samples, in addition to a 130,000- to 110,000-y old PB, to examine this problem from a genome-wide perspective. Nuclear DNA markers reflect a species tree consistent with expectation, showing polar and brown bears to be sister species. However, for the enigmatic brown bears native to Alaska's Alexander Archipelago, we estimate that not only their mitochondrial genome, but also 5–10% of their nuclear genome, is most closely related to PBs, indicating ancient admixture between the two species. Explicit admixture analyses are consistent with ancient splits among PBs, brown bears and black bears that were later followed by occasional admixture. We also provide paleodemographic estimates that suggest bear evolution has tracked key climate events, and that PB in particular experienced a prolonged and dramatic decline in its effective population size during the last ca. 500,000 years. We demonstrate that brown bears and PBs have had sufficiently independent evolutionary histories over the last 4–5 million years to leave imprints in the PB nuclear genome that likely are associated with ecological adaptation to the Arctic environment.

  5. Polar and brown bear genomes reveal ancient admixture and demographic footprints of past climate change. (United States)

    Miller, Webb; Schuster, Stephan C; Welch, Andreanna J; Ratan, Aakrosh; Bedoya-Reina, Oscar C; Zhao, Fangqing; Kim, Hie Lim; Burhans, Richard C; Drautz, Daniela I; Wittekindt, Nicola E; Tomsho, Lynn P; Ibarra-Laclette, Enrique; Herrera-Estrella, Luis; Peacock, Elizabeth; Farley, Sean; Sage, George K; Rode, Karyn; Obbard, Martyn; Montiel, Rafael; Bachmann, Lutz; Ingólfsson, Olafur; Aars, Jon; Mailund, Thomas; Wiig, Oystein; Talbot, Sandra L; Lindqvist, Charlotte


    Polar bears (PBs) are superbly adapted to the extreme Arctic environment and have become emblematic of the threat to biodiversity from global climate change. Their divergence from the lower-latitude brown bear provides a textbook example of rapid evolution of distinct phenotypes. However, limited mitochondrial and nuclear DNA evidence conflicts in the timing of PB origin as well as placement of the species within versus sister to the brown bear lineage. We gathered extensive genomic sequence data from contemporary polar, brown, and American black bear samples, in addition to a 130,000- to 110,000-y old PB, to examine this problem from a genome-wide perspective. Nuclear DNA markers reflect a species tree consistent with expectation, showing polar and brown bears to be sister species. However, for the enigmatic brown bears native to Alaska's Alexander Archipelago, we estimate that not only their mitochondrial genome, but also 5-10% of their nuclear genome, is most closely related to PBs, indicating ancient admixture between the two species. Explicit admixture analyses are consistent with ancient splits among PBs, brown bears and black bears that were later followed by occasional admixture. We also provide paleodemographic estimates that suggest bear evolution has tracked key climate events, and that PB in particular experienced a prolonged and dramatic decline in its effective population size during the last ca. 500,000 years. We demonstrate that brown bears and PBs have had sufficiently independent evolutionary histories over the last 4-5 million years to leave imprints in the PB nuclear genome that likely are associated with ecological adaptation to the Arctic environment.

  6. Feeling threatened about the future: Whites' emotional reactions to anticipated ethnic demographic changes. (United States)

    Outten, H Robert; Schmitt, Michael T; Miller, Daniel A; Garcia, Amber L


    In many Western countries, the proportion of the population that is White will drop below 50% within the next century. Two experiments examined how anticipation of these future ethnic demographics affects current intergroup processes. In Study 1, White Americans who viewed actual demographic projections for a time when Whites are no longer a numerical majority felt more angry toward and fearful of ethnic minorities than Whites who did not view future projections. Whites who viewed the future projections also felt more sympathy for their ingroup than Whites in the control condition. In Study 2, the authors replicated the effects for intergroup emotions with a sample of White Canadians. White Canadians who thought about a future in which Whites were a numerical minority appraised the ingroup as more threatened, which mediated the effect of condition on intergroup emotions. The authors discuss the implications of these findings for race relations in increasingly diverse societies.

  7. Planetary Habitability and Rapid Environmental Change: The Biological Perspective (United States)

    Schulze-Makuch, D.; Fairen, A.; Irwin, L.


    Environmental conditions can change drastically and rapidly during the natural history of a planetary body. We have detailed evidence of these dramatic events from Venus, Earth, Mars, and Titan. Most of these occurrences seem to be triggered by astronomical events such as asteroid impacts or supernova explosions; others are triggered by the planet or moon itself (e.g., supervolcano eruptions). The associated question is always how these events affect the habitability of a planet, particularly the origin and presence of life. Under what conditions would such a drastic event be so catastrophic that it would prohibit the origin of life or be so devastating to existing organisms, that life would not be able to recover and be all but extinguished from a planet? Under what conditions would such an event be positive for the evolution of life, for example spurring life via mass extinctions and associated vacant habitats to the invention of new body plans and higher complexity? Here, we provide insights of what we can learn from the natural history of our own planet, which experienced many environmental disasters and abrupt climate changes, from the impact event that created the Moon to the extinction of the dinosaurs. We apply these insights to other planetary bodies and the question about the presence of life. One example is Mars, which underwent drastic environmental changes at the end of the Noachian period. Assuming that microbial life became established on Mars, could it have survived, perhaps by retreating to environmental niches? Life just starting out would have certainly been more vulnerable to extinction. But how far would it have to have evolved to be more resistant to potential extinction events? Would it have to be global in distribution to survive? Another example is Venus. Should Venus be seen as an example where life, which possibly arose in the first few hundred million years when the planet was still in the habitable zone, would have had no chance to

  8. Which came first, people or pollution? Assessing the disparate siting and post-siting demographic change hypotheses of environmental injustice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohai, Paul; Saha, Robin


    Although a large body of quantitative environmental justice research exists, only a handful of studies have examined the processes by which racial and socioeconomic disparities in the location of polluting industrial facilities can occur. These studies have had mixed results, we contend, principally because of methodological differences, that is, the use of the unit-hazard coincidence method as compared to distance-based methods. This study is the first national-level environmental justice study to conduct longitudinal analyses using distance-based methods. Our purposes are to: (1) determine whether disparate siting, post-siting demographic change, or a combination of the two created present-day disparities; (2) test related explanations; and (3) determine whether the application of distance-based methods helps resolve the inconsistent findings of previous research. We used a national database of commercial hazardous waste facilities sited from 1966 to 1995 and examined the demographic composition of host neighborhoods around the time of siting and demographic changes that occurred after siting. We found strong evidence of disparate siting for facilities sited in all time periods. Although we found some evidence of post-siting demographic changes, they were mostly a continuation of changes that occurred in the decade or two prior to siting, suggesting that neighborhood transition serves to attract noxious facilities rather than the facilities themselves attracting people of color and low income populations. Our findings help resolve inconsistencies among the longitudinal studies and builds on the evidence from other subnational studies that used distance-based methods. We conclude that racial discrimination and sociopolitical explanations (i.e., the proposition that siting decisions follow the ‘path of least resistance’) best explain present-day inequities. (letter)

  9. Innovation in regulation of rapidly changing health markets. (United States)

    Bloom, Gerald; Henson, Spencer; Peters, David H


    The rapid evolution and spread of health markets across low and middle-income countries (LMICs) has contributed to a significant increase in the availability of health-related goods and services around the world. The support institutions needed to regulate these markets have lagged behind, with regulatory systems that are weak and under-resourced. This paper explores the key issues associated with regulation of health markets in LMICs, and the different goals of regulation, namely quality and safety of care, value for money, social agreement over fair access and financing, and accountability. Licensing, price controls, and other traditional approaches to the regulation of markets for health products and services have played an important role, but they have been of questionable effectiveness in ensuring safety and efficacy at the point of the user in LMICs. The paper proposes a health market systems conceptual framework, using the value chain for the production, distribution and retail of health goods and services, to examine regulation of health markets in the LMIC context. We conclude by exploring the changing context going forwards, laying out implications for future heath market regulation. We argue that the case for new approaches to the regulation of markets for health products and services in LMICs is compelling. Although traditional "command and control" approaches will have a place in the toolkit of regulators, a broader bundle of approaches is needed that is adapted to the national and market-level context of particular LMICs. The implication is that it is not possible to apply standard or single interventions across countries, as approaches proven to work well in one context will not necessarily work well elsewhere.

  10. On the contribution of demographic change to aggregate poverty measures for the developing world


    Ravallion, Martin


    Recent literature and new data help determine plausible bounds to some key demographic differences between the poor and non-poor in the developing world. The author estimates that selective mortality-whereby poorer people tend to have higher death rates-accounts for 10-30 percent of the developing world's trend rate of "$1 a day" poverty reduction in the 1990s. However, in a neighborhood of plausible estimates, differential fertility-whereby poorer people tend also to have higher birth rates-...

  11. Estimating synchronous demographic changes across populations using hABC and its application for a herpetological community from northeastern Brazil. (United States)

    Gehara, Marcelo; Garda, Adrian A; Werneck, Fernanda P; Oliveira, Eliana F; da Fonseca, Emanuel M; Camurugi, Felipe; Magalhães, Felipe de M; Lanna, Flávia M; Sites, Jack W; Marques, Ricardo; Silveira-Filho, Ricardo; São Pedro, Vinícius A; Colli, Guarino R; Costa, Gabriel C; Burbrink, Frank T


    Many studies propose that Quaternary climatic cycles contracted and/or expanded the ranges of species and biomes. Strong expansion-contraction dynamics of biomes presume concerted demographic changes of associated fauna. The analysis of temporal concordance of demographic changes can be used to test the influence of Quaternary climate on diversification processes. Hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation (hABC) is a powerful and flexible approach that models genetic data from multiple species, and can be used to estimate the temporal concordance of demographic processes. Using available single-locus data, we can now perform large-scale analyses, both in terms of number of species and geographic scope. Here, we first compared the power of four alternative hABC models for a collection of single-locus data. We found that the model incorporating an a priori hypothesis about the timing of simultaneous demographic change had the best performance. Second, we applied the hABC models to a data set of seven squamate and four amphibian species occurring in the Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (Caatinga) in northeastern Brazil, which, according to paleoclimatic evidence, experienced an increase in aridity during the Pleistocene. If this increase was important for the diversification of associated xeric-adapted species, simultaneous population expansions should be evident at the community level. We found a strong signal of synchronous population expansion in the Late Pleistocene, supporting the increase of the Caatinga during this time. This expansion likely enhanced the formation of communities adapted to high aridity and seasonality and caused regional extirpation of taxa adapted to wet forest. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Demographic Changes and Their Spatial-Settlement Consequences: Lessons from East Germany and Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tibor Kovács


    Full Text Available Demographic shrinkage has created ‘new’ challenges in the spatial and urban development of the developed world and its semi periphery for nearly three and a half decades and it requires a different way of thinking and different solutions as well compared to previous development practices. Theoretical research and development activities in practice are further aggravated by the mono-minded mentality of society, economy and politics fallen a victim to charms of ‘growth’; the slow recognition of the fact of spatial-urban shrinkage and the reluctance to deal with the problem (especially on the semi periphery. In this paper I would like to outline the settlement and spatial problems of demographic shrinkage and suggest certain theoretical solutions being aware of the fact that there is no universal solution for shrinkage; each and every settlement has to find and carry out their own solution – emphasising the mobilisation of the endogenous resources of the given region or settlement.

  13. Demographic Change and the New (and Not so New) Challenges for Latino Education (United States)

    Gándara, Patricia; Mordechay, Kfir


    Latino students now make up 1 in 4 public school students in the United States and are a rapidly growing population in nontraditional settlement areas. Yet persistent racial and ethnic disparities in educational achievement and attainment are cause for grave concern, as high school graduation and postsecondary-education are increasingly necessary…

  14. The advantages of demographic change after the wave: fewer and older, but healthier, greener, and more productive?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fanny Kluge

    Full Text Available Population aging is an inevitable global demographic process. Most of the literature on the consequences of demographic change focuses on the economic and societal challenges that we will face as people live longer and have fewer children. In this paper, we (a briefly describe key trends and projections of the magnitude and speed of population aging; (b discuss the economic, social, and environmental consequences of population aging; and (c investigate some of the opportunities that aging societies create. We use Germany as a case study. However, the general insights that we obtain can be generalized to other developed countries. We argue that there may be positive unintended side effects of population aging that can be leveraged to address pressing environmental problems and issues of gender inequality and intergenerational ties.

  15. Analysing Changes in Discursive Constructions of Rural Areas in the Context of Demographic Change. Towards Counterpoints in the Dominant Discourse on “Dying Villages”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela B. Christmann


    For the conceptualisation of the empirical observations, the article is based on the assumption that it is in communications and in public discourses – in particular specific recurrent contents on rural areas and demographic change – that specific knowledge elements and reality constructions of rural areas emerge and stabilise within society. This assumption includes the idea that when the content of public discourses on rural areas change, for example through small-scale discursive counterpoints, it is possible for new knowledge elements and new constructions of reality to develop. Against this background, the approach of a (new discursive construction of spaces is selected as theoretical starting point for the analysis. By referring to the communicative-constructivism approach and by integrating the sociology of knowledge approach to discourse, it is perfectly suited for theoretically spelling out changing discursive constructions of rural areas in the context of demographic change.

  16. Securing the Continuity of Medical Competence in Times of Demographic Change: A Proposal. (United States)

    Hasebrook, Joachim Paul; Hinkelmann, Jürgen; Volkert, Thomas; Rodde, Sibyll; Hahnenkamp, Klaus


    University hospitals make up the backbone of medical and economic services of hospitals in Germany: they qualify specialist physicians, ensure medical research, and provide highly specialized maximum medical care, which other hospitals cannot undertake. In addition to this assignment, medical research and academic teaching must be managed despite a growing shortage of specialist physicians. By the year 2020, the need for the replacement of retired physicians and increased demand will total 30,000 positions. The situation will become more difficult because, on the whole, patients are becoming older and sicker and because specialist physicians are able to find more attractive working conditions in smaller hospitals, abroad, or outside of curative medicine. In order to retain sufficient qualified employees, major improvements in quality are required in terms of working and training conditions. For this purpose, a sustainable innovation process is necessary, which incorporates solutions from outside of the health care sector in order to be able to learn from experiences and mistakes from other industries. The FacharztPlus project aims to find suitable measures in order to retain specialist physicians for more years after the completion of 5 years of professional training. This should determine the suitability of additional qualifications alongside the professional career and an expertise-related work organization oriented to different stages of life. Structured interviews, surveys, and repertory grids are used as preparation for cross-industry expert panels to create future work scenarios for university hospitals. Industries involved are harbor logistics (container terminal), airports, and digitized industrial production ("industry 4.0") because these industries are also facing a shortage of qualified staff and have to respond to rapidly changing demands. Based on the experts' scenarios, consensus groups will be established in each university hospital trying to reach

  17. Towards thresholds of disaster management performance under demographic change: exploring functional relationships using agent-based modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Dressler


    Full Text Available Effective disaster management is a core feature for the protection of communities against natural disasters such as floods. Disaster management organizations (DMOs are expected to contribute to ensuring this protection. However, what happens when their resources to cope with a flood are at stake or the intensity and frequency of the event exceeds their capacities? Many cities in the Free State of Saxony, Germany, were strongly hit by several floods in the last years and are additionally challenged by demographic change, with an ageing society and out-migration leading to population shrinkage in many parts of Saxony. Disaster management, which is mostly volunteer-based in Germany, is particularly affected by this change, leading to a loss of members. We propose an agent-based simulation model that acts as a "virtual lab" to explore the impact of various changes on disaster management performance. Using different scenarios we examine the impact of changes in personal resources of DMOs, their access to operation relevant information, flood characteristics as well as differences between geographic regions. A loss of DMOs and associated manpower caused by demographic change has the most profound impact on the performance. Especially in rural, upstream regions population decline in combination with very short lead times can put disaster management performance at risk.

  18. Women in Physics in a Rapidly Changing China (United States)

    Wu, Ling-An


    Despite the upheavals of the 20th century, physics managed to survive quite well in China, where the first woman president of the American Physical Society was born and bred. During the 1950s as a result of policies that emphasized science and engineering, declared equal rights and equal pay for men and women, and assigned jobs to college graduates irrespective of sex, the number of women in physics increased rapidly, many of whom made notable achievements. Since China's opening up over the last thirty years tremendous changes have taken place, and women now face new opportunities as well as challenges in all aspects of society. Whereas physics used to be regarded as the most elite of the sciences, new fields such as computer science, biotechnology and business are now competing for the best students. Compared with other countries the statistics are not bad; in schools and many physics departments the ratio of women teachers may be 30% or higher, but the numbers drop drastically with rank. Moreover, in some research institutions the ratio of female physicists is actually declining, due to retirement of the older generation and fewer successors. Compulsory retirement for women at an earlier age than for men is also a new factor. Conversely, in recent years the ratio of female graduate students enrolling in physics has increased, even reaching 40% in some universities. However, the reasons for this do not bode well: men are not performing so well as women in entrance exams, while the latter are facing increasing discrimination in employment so they have to seek higher degree qualifications. With the further development of China's economy there will be abundant demand for qualified personnel including women with a physics background. It is imperative to actively support the upcoming generation of women physicists and not lose them in the leaky pipeline. The Chinese Physical Society has taken certain positive steps, such as the recent establishment of the Xie Xi

  19. Demographic change and income tax revenue in Germany: a microsimulation approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Beznoska


    Full Text Available As a result of high net migration, both Germany’s overall population and its workforce potential are currently growing. However, within a few years this demographic trend will be reversed, leading to a decline in population as a whole and especially in the number of those gainfully employed. In this paper, we use a population projection to apply a static ageing approach to German micro data. Then, we simulate income tax revenue with a microsimulation model for the future population. In 20 years’ time the annual price-adjusted income tax loss is estimated to be equal to € 18 billion or almost 7 per cent. This fall in income tax revenue resulting from a shrinking and ageing society will place a huge strain on public finances in Germany, an effect further enhanced by the shift of the tax burden from pension contributions to pension benefits.

  20. Rapid socio-cultural change and health in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, P


    The colonization of the circumpolar peoples has had a profound influence on their health. History tells about devastating epidemics and the introduction of alcohol. The last 50 years have witnessed an unprecedented societal development in Greenland and a rapid epidemiological transition. Physical...... health and survival have improved but at the expense of mental health. The incidence of tuberculosis and the infant mortality rate have decreased because of improved socioeconomic conditions and health care. Mental health has deteriorated parallel to the rapid modernization of Greenlandic society...

  1. A big data management platform for rapidly changing environments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zahedi, P.


    Big data is now a reality. Storing, managing, and analyzing very large amount of data is a common challenge in the world of technology where digital content is rapidly growing. In recent years, FEI advanced electron microscopes, with their unsurpassed magnification and resolving power brought an

  2. Demographic, socioeconomic and environmental changes affecting circulation of neglected tropical diseases in Egypt. (United States)

    Abou-El-Naga, Iman F


    Egypt has been plagued by many neglected tropical diseases since Pharaonic time. These diseases are Schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiasis, lymphatic filariasis, leishmaniasis and fascioliasis beside the epidermal parasitic skin diseases. Indeed, theses diseases still persist as public health problem in the country by the influence of demographic, socioeconomic and environmental obstacles. This study seeks for understanding the contribution of each factor in each obstacle in neglected tropical diseases perpetuation which in turn could help the governorate in planning integrated control strategies. It was found that poverty, unregulated urbanization and inadequate sanitation are important socioeconomic factors that have great effect on the transmission dynamics of the diseases. The environmental factors which affect the epidemiology of these diseases in the country are scarcity of water, construction of dams, land reclamation for agriculture beside the climate factors. Unfortunately, the panic increase in the population growth rate minimizes the efforts done by the governorate to elevate the public health services. These conditions also affect the transmission of epidermal parasitic skin diseases including scabies, head lice and hookworm-related cutaneous larva migrans. The control programs and the recommendations to combat the diseases were discussed. The present study showed that the ecological factors affecting each neglected tropical disease in Egypt are somewhat similar which makes it worthy to develop an integrated control approaches aiming at improving the leading factors of neglected tropical diseases circulation in the country. Copyright © 2015 Hainan Medical College. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Behavioral, demographic, psychosocial, and sociocultural concomitants of stage of change for physical activity behavior in a mixed-culture sample. (United States)

    Cardinal, Bradley J; Lee, Jong-Young; Kim, Young-Ho; Lee, Hyo; Li, Kin-Kit; Si, Qi


    Examine behavioral, demographic, psychosocial, and sociocultural concomitants of the stages of change for physical activity behavior among college students in South Korea (n = 221) and the United States (n = 166). Measures obtained in this cross-sectional study included age; body mass index; nationality; gender; exercise behavior; processes of change; decisional balance; self-efficacy; stage of change; and predisposing, reinforcing, and enabling factors. The amount of variance explained for stage of change by the transtheoretical model constructs (i.e., decisional balance, processes of change, self-efficacy) ranged from 11% to 29% (all p behavior (OR = 1.04; p behavioral processes of change (OR = 1.12; p change. In terms of physical activity behavior, South Korean women were more likely than South Korean men to be in the early stages, whereas American men were slightly more likely to be in the early stages than American women when all the concomitants were accounted for. Among the psychosocial stage of change concomitants, only the behavioral processes of change were found to be important.

  4. Contemporary demographic changes in settlements along the administrative line in Serbia towards autonomous province of Kosovo and Metohija

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vukoičić Danijela


    Full Text Available The settlements along the administrative line in Serbia towards Kosovo and Metohija had a very turbulent demographic changes in the past. These changes have influenced the present. In this paper we investigated the depopulation process of this area which is intensified with the political instability, social and economic changes. The main goal of this research was to analyze the causes and effects in the reduction of the number of inhabitants, as well as the possibility of revitalizing the rural settlements of a given area. To obtain the desired results, we analyzed the existing literature and statistical data, used comparative and historical methods as well as implemented the field surveys. The application of the SWOT analysis to the researched area have showed us the strength, weakness, opportunities, and threats that can effect the process of revitalization of the village.

  5. Rapid deuterium exchange-in time for probing conformational change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dharmasiri, K.; Smith, D.L.


    Isotopic exchange of protein backbone amide hydrogens has been used extensively as a sensitive probe of protein structure. One of the salient features of hydrogen exchange is the vast range of exchange rates in one protein. Isotopic exchange methods have been used to study the structural features including protein folding and unfolding (1), functionally different forms of proteins (2), protein-protein complexation (3), and protein stability parameter. Many backbone amide protons that are surface accessible and are not involved in hydrogen bonding undergo rapid deuterium exchange. In order to study, fast exchanging amide protons, fast exchange-in times are necessary

  6. Baby Booming Inequality? Demographic Change and Inequality in Norway, 1967{2004.


    Almås, Ingvild; Havnes, Tarjei; Mogstad, Magne


    We demonstrate how age-adjusted inequality measures can be used to evaluate whether changes in inequality over time are because of changes in the age structure. In particular, we explore the hypothesis that the substantial rise in earnings inequality since the early 1980s is driven by the large baby boom cohorts approaching the peak of the age-earnings profile. Using administrative data on earnings for every Norwegian male over the period 1967-2004, we find that the impact of age ...

  7. Added value from European Territorial Co-operation: the impact of demographic change in the Alps on the young

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marot Naja


    Full Text Available The article sets demographic change in the Alps in the framework of European Territorial Cooperation programs. A statistical overview of selected regions in five Alpine countries serves as a basis for further policy analysis. The latter was undertaken to reveal how transnational projects tackle youth issues, including the difficulties within the labour and real estate markets that appeared to be the most problematic factors influencing (out migration of the youth. While there is only a minor recognition of the young in current policymaking on supranational, regional and local levels, the analysis showed that the added value of transnational programs for mountain regions and localities can be recognized in the development of multi-stakeholder environments, creating and transferring new solutions for the labour market as well as empowering youth participation in policy processes. However, the extent to which these solutions might contribute to overcoming the challenges of demographic change because of transnational programs is limited by various factors. Among these are the precise governance framework, administrative capacity, and population figures.

  8. Policy options to respond to rapid climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swart, R.J.; Marinova, N.A.; Bakker, S.; Tilburg, van X.


    Ongoing research on climate change indicates that we cannot rule out the possibility of extreme climatic changes, beyond current IPCC scenarios. The thinking about policy responses to address these risks is still in its infancy. This study explores the possibilities for responding to extreme

  9. Effect of Attitudinal, Situational and Demographic Factors on Annoyance Due to Environmental Vibration and Noise from Construction of a Light Rapid Transit System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Wong-McSweeney


    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to determine what non-exposure factors influence the relationship between vibration and noise exposure from the construction of a Light Rapid Transit (LRT system and the annoyance of nearby residents. Noise and vibration from construction sites are known to annoy residents, with annoyance increasing as a function of the magnitude of the vibration and noise. There is not a strong correlation between exposure and levels of annoyance suggesting that factors not directly related to the exposure may have an influence. A range of attitudinal, situational and demographic factors are investigated with the aim of understanding the wide variation in annoyance for a given vibration exposure. A face-to-face survey of residents (n = 350 near three sites of LRT construction was conducted, and responses were compared to semi-empirical estimates of the internal vibration within the buildings. It was found that annoyance responses due to vibration were strongly influenced by two attitudinal variables, concern about property damage and sensitivity to vibration. Age, ownership of the property and the visibility of the construction site were also important factors. Gender, time at home and expectation of future levels of vibration had much less influence. Due to the measurement methods used, it was not possible to separate out the effects of noise and vibration on annoyance; as such, this paper focusses on annoyance due to vibration exposure. This work concludes that for the most cost-effective reduction of the impact of construction vibration and noise on the annoyance felt by a community, policies should consider attitudinal factors.

  10. Family Size, Looming Demographic Changes and the Efficiency of Social Security Reform

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Groezen, B.J.A.M.; Leers, T.; Meijdam, A.C.


    This paper analyses the eeffects of ageing and child support in a model with endogenous fertility and Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) pensions. First, we show that the endogeneity of fertility makes society vulnerable to both pessimistic beliefs and changes in life expectancy. In particular, we show that the

  11. Cohort Changes in the Socio-Demographic Determinants of Gender Egalitarianism (United States)

    Pampel, Fred


    Arguments about the spread of gender egalitarian values through the population highlight several sources of change. First, structural arguments point to increases in the proportion of women with high education, jobs with good pay, commitment to careers outside the family, and direct interests in gender equality. Second, value shift arguments…

  12. San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) climate change adaptation assessment pilot. (United States)


    The objective of this pilot study was to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District : (BART) infrastructure and to develop and implement adaptation strategies against those impacts. Climate change haza...

  13. Merkel cell carcinoma: Current US incidence and projected increases based on changing demographics. (United States)

    Paulson, Kelly G; Park, Song Youn; Vandeven, Natalie A; Lachance, Kristina; Thomas, Hannah; Chapuis, Aude G; Harms, Kelly L; Thompson, John A; Bhatia, Shailender; Stang, Andreas; Nghiem, Paul


    Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) incidence rates are rising and strongly age-associated, relevant for an aging population. Determine MCC incidence in the United States and project incident cases through the year 2025. Registry data were obtained from the SEER-18 Database, containing 6600 MCC cases. Age- and sex-adjusted projections were generated using US census data. During 2000-2013, the number of reported solid cancer cases increased 15%, melanoma cases increased 57%, and MCC cases increased 95%. In 2013, the MCC incidence rate was 0.7 cases/100,000 person-years in the United States, corresponding to 2488 cases/year. MCC incidence increased exponentially with age, from 0.1 to 1.0 to 9.8 (per 100,000 person-years) among age groups 40-44 years, 60-64 years, and ≥85 years, respectively. Due to aging of the Baby Boomer generation, US MCC incident cases are predicted to climb to 2835 cases/year in 2020 and 3284 cases/year in 2025. We assumed that the age-adjusted incidence rate would stabilize, and thus, the number of incident cases we projected might be an underestimate. An aging population is driving brisk increases in the number of new MCC cases in the United States. This growing impact combined with the rapidly evolving therapeutic landscape warrants expanded awareness of MCC diagnosis and management. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Weight changes and their associations with demographic and clinical characteristics in risperidone maintenance treatment for schizophrenia. (United States)

    Xiang, Y-T; Wang, C-Y; Ungvari, G S; Kreyenbuhl, J A; Chiu, H F K; Lai, K Y C; Lee, E H M; Bo, Q-J; Dixon, L B


    This study aimed to characterize weight changes in schizophrenia patients taking risperidone as part of a randomized, controlled, open-label clinical trial. A total of 374 patients with schizophrenia who had been clinically stabilized following an acute episode were randomly assigned to a 'no-dose-reduction' group (initial optimal therapeutic doses continued throughout the study), a '4-week group' (initial optimal therapeutic doses continued for 4 weeks followed by a half dose reduction that was maintained until the end of the study) or a '26-week group' (initial optimal therapeutic doses continued for 26 weeks followed by a half dose reduction until the end of the study). Participants were assessed monthly using standardized assessment instruments during the first 6 months, and then every 2 months until the last recruited patient completed the 1-year follow-up. Weight gain was defined as gaining at least 7% of initial body weight, weight loss as losing at least 7% of initial body weight. A BMI weight loss compared to being normal weight. No correlation was found between weight change and dose reduction. Weight change is a common, long-term, but heterogeneous side effect in risperidone maintenance treatment for stable schizophrenia patients. Special attention should be paid to fluctuations in weight that may occur throughout the course of treatment with risperidone. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  15. The influence of a demographic change on social relationships among male golden snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana). (United States)

    Huang, Pengzhen; Zhang, Endi; Chen, Min


    It has been suggested that social relationships are more likely to be prone to variation in the dispersing sex than the philopatric sex. However, we know less about the dynamics of all-male groups in male-dispersing species than we do about other types of primate groups. We studied male sociality in a captive group of golden snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana), which was composed of a one-male unit (OMU, N = 7) and an all-male unit (AMU, N = 7 or 8), in Shanghai Wild Animal Park, China. Using data collected for 6 months, during which there was a demographic change in the AMU and the alpha male was replaced by a newcomer, we found that a dramatic change in social ranks occurred accompanied by elevated aggression following this social upheaval. A proximity-based social network analysis revealed that members did not associate randomly any more but formed differentiated relationships post-upheaval, resulting in three distinct sub-units in the AMU. In terms of inter-unit interactions, significant changes were found in the affiliations between the male juvenile of OMU and AMU individuals. He interacted with AMU individuals randomly and frequently pre-upheaval, but cut down his affiliations and had a preferred partner post-upheaval, who was a member of the dominant male's sub-unit. Our findings suggest that social networks in the dispersing sex are dynamic structures and vary by some demographic change (e.g., individual immigration) in the studied species. We also put forward that individual dominance could be a criterion when the male juvenile chooses partners before he immigrates into a group. In conclusion, the high level of behavioral flexibility of the dispersing sex could be an evolutional strategy and good for individuals' future dispersing life.

  16. Evidence-based medicine in rapidly changing technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schroeder, Torben Veith


    Evidence-based medicine (EBM) is not a randomised controlled trial (RCT), but EBM seeks to apply evidence gained from scientific methods - which could be RCT - to daily medical practice. Any surgical treatment reflects a certain development technically as well as skills based. The procedure may....... Special considerations should be given in rapidly developing fields. If started too early the resulting comparison will likely turn out to be irrelevant because the new technology is not fully developed, not mastered or the device may have undergone major modifications rendering the results obsolete....... On the other hand, if started too late there is a chance that data may be lost because the technology has already been introduced into the daily clinics and physicians may be unwilling to recruit patients. Or the opposite, that the technique may have been rejected without a proper trial. In this situation...

  17. Changing demographics of spinal cord injury over a 20-year period: a longitudinal population-based study in Scotland. (United States)

    McCaughey, E J; Purcell, M; McLean, A N; Fraser, M H; Bewick, A; Borotkanics, R J; Allan, D B


    A retrospective cohort study. To review demographic trends in traumatic spinal cord injury (TSCI) and non-traumatic spinal cord injury (NTSCI). The Queen Elizabeth National Spinal Injuries Unit (QENSIU), sole provider of treatment for TSCI in Scotland; a devolved region of the UK National Health Service. A retrospective review of the QENSIU database was performed between 1994 and 2013. This database includes demographic and clinical data from all new TSCI patients in Scotland, as well as patients with severe NTSCI. Over this 20-year period there were 1638 new cases of TSCI in Scotland; 75.2% occurring in males. TSCI incidence increased non-significantly (13.3 per million population to 17.0), while there were significant increases in mean age at time of TSCI (44.1-52.6 years), the proportion of TSCIs caused by falls (41-60%), the proportion of TSCIs resulting in an American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale score of C and D on admission (19.7-28.6% and 34.5-39.5%, respectively) and the proportion of cervical TSCIs (58.4-66.3%). The increase in cervical TSCI was specifically due to an increase in C1-C4 lesions (21.7-31.2%). NTSCI patients (n=292) were 5 years older at injury, more likely to be female (68.1% male) and had a range of diagnoses. This study supports the suggestion that demographic profiles in SCI are subject to change. In this population, of particular concern is the increasing number of older patients and those with high level tetraplegia, due to their increased care needs. Prevention programmes, treatment pathways and service provision need to be adjusted for optimum impact, improved outcome and long-term care for their target population.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. V. Vishnyakov


    Full Text Available Aim. Analysis of the population dynamics and changes in the share of arable land in the structure of land use separate territory for several historical periods, and to determine the causes of these changes. Methods. Studies have used forwarding, statistical methods, and the method of cartographic modeling and retrospective analysis. Results. Analysis of the results of the population census allows speaking about the general negative dynamics in the rural population of the Volgograd region in general and river basin Bolshaya Golubaya in particular. Historical and cartographic analysis has shown the dependence of the arable lands of the number of residents on the territory residents. In addition, the population of the territory is significantly affected by soil fertility. Main conclusions. The population of the river basin Bolshaya Golubaya over the past hundred years have steadily decreased, as due to various socio-economic reasons, such as consolidation of rural settlements, the planned destruction of farm system, moving people into the city, and due to the difficult climatic conditions for farming: poor soil fertility, high degree of erosion areas, poor soil conditions of the territory.

  19. Mapping sleeping sickness in Western Africa in a context of demographic transition and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecchi G.


    Full Text Available Human population growth, climate change and economic development are causing major environmental modifications in Western Africa, which will have important repercussions on the epidemiology of sleeping sickness. A new initiative, the Atlas of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, aims at assembling and geo-referencing all epidemiological data derived from both active screening activities and passive surveillance. A geographic database enables to generate up-to-date disease maps at a range of scales and of unprecedented spatial accuracy. We present preliminary results for seven West African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Mali and Togo and briefly discuss the relevance of the Atlas for future monitoring, control and research activities.

  20. Empirical study on impact of demographic and economic changes on pension cost (United States)

    Yusof, Shaira; Ibrahim, Rose Irnawaty


    A continuation of the same financial standard of living after retirement as before is very importance to retired person. The pension provider has a responsibility to ensure their employees receive the sufficient benefit after retirement and regularly monitor the factors that cause insufficient funds to pay benefit to retirees. Insufficient funds may be due to increased in pension cost. Some of the factors that increase the cost of pensions are changes in mortality rates and interest rates. This study will used these two factors to determine their sensitivity to pension cost. Two methods which are Accrued Benefit Cost Method and Projected Benefit Cost Method will be used to estimate pension cost. Interest rates has a inversely related to pension cost while mortality rates has a directly related to pension cost.

  1. Historical, Demographic, and Economic Correlates of Land-Use Change in the Republic of Panama

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart Joseph. Wright


    Full Text Available The Republic of Panama recently experienced a limited forest transition. After five decades of decline, the total forest cover increased by 0.36% yr-1 between 1992 and 2000; however, mature forest cover simultaneously decreased by 1.3% yr-1. This limited forest transition at the national scale comprised two distinctly different patterns of recent forest-cover change related to historical land use. Districts that were largely deforested when the first national survey of forest cover was completed in 1947 experienced a strong forest transition between 1992 and 2000. In these, the proportion of the population employed in agriculture decreased by an average of 31% and natural secondary forest succession increased the total forest cover by an average of 85% between 1992 and 2000. In contrast, no forest transition was evident for districts that were largely forested in 1947. In these, the absolute number of people employed in agriculture remained constant, old-growth forest cover decreased by 8% on average, and natural secondary forest succession increased, so that the total forest cover tended to be static between 1992 and 2000. Historical land use, an index of human poverty, and the population density of agricultural workers explained 61% of the among-district variation in forest cover in 2000, with forest concentrated in areas where populations were small and poor. Historical land use and gross income per hectare from agriculture explained 23.5% of the among-district variation in forest-cover change between 1992 and 2000. The early history of forest loss, an uneven distribution of people, and disparities in farm income contributed to the limited forest transition observed in Panama.

  2. Managing in the rapidly changing context of higher education: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Besides the rate of change in the sector there are also, as seen from the continuous media coverage, a number of universities and technikons in some form of financial or leadership crisis. Over the past years one of the main reasons given for these crises was outstanding student fees. However, the reasons now alluded to ...

  3. Alveolar bone changes after asymmetric rapid maxillary expansion. (United States)

    Akin, Mehmet; Baka, Zeliha Muge; Ileri, Zehra; Basciftci, Faruk Ayhan


    To quantitatively evaluate the effects of asymmetric rapid maxillary expansion (ARME) on cortical bone thickness and buccal alveolar bone height (BABH), and to determine the formation of dehiscence and fenestration in the alveolar bone surrounding the posterior teeth, using cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT). The CBCT records of 23 patients with true unilateral posterior skeletal crossbite (10 boys, 14.06 ± 1.08 years old, and 13 girls, 13.64 ± 1.32 years old) who had undergone ARME were selected from our clinic archives. The bonded acrylic ARME appliance, including an occlusal stopper, was used on all patients. CBCT records had been taken before ARME (T1) and after the 3-month retention period (T2). Axial slices of the CBCT images at 3 vertical levels were used to evaluate the buccal and palatal aspects of the canines, first and second premolars, and first molars. Paired samples and independent sample t-tests were used for statistical comparison. The results suggest that buccal cortical bone thickness of the affected side was significantly more affected by the expansion than was the unaffected side (P ARME significantly reduced the BABH of the canines (P ARME also increased the incidence of dehiscence and fenestration on the affected side. ARME may quantitatively decrease buccal cortical bone thickness and height on the affected side.

  4. Planetary health: protecting human health on a rapidly changing planet. (United States)

    Myers, Samuel S


    The impact of human activities on our planet's natural systems has been intensifying rapidly in the past several decades, leading to disruption and transformation of most natural systems. These disruptions in the atmosphere, oceans, and across the terrestrial land surface are not only driving species to extinction, they pose serious threats to human health and wellbeing. Characterising and addressing these threats requires a paradigm shift. In a lecture delivered to the Academy of Medical Sciences on Nov 13, 2017, I describe the scale of human impacts on natural systems and the extensive associated health effects across nearly every dimension of human health. I highlight several overarching themes that emerge from planetary health and suggest advances in the way we train, reward, promote, and fund the generation of health scientists who will be tasked with breaking out of their disciplinary silos to address this urgent constellation of health threats. I propose that protecting the health of future generations requires taking better care of Earth's natural systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. A decomposition analysis of change in skilled birth attendants, 2003 to 2008, Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys. (United States)

    Bosomprah, Samuel; Aryeetey, Genevieve Cecelia; Nonvignon, Justice; Adanu, Richard M


    The single most critical intervention to improve maternal and neonatal survival is to ensure that a competent health worker with midwifery skills is present at every birth, and transport is available to a referral facility for obstetric care in case of an emergency. This study aims to describe changes in percentage of skilled birth attendants in Ghana and to identify causes of the observed changes as well as the contribution of different categories of mother's characteristics to these changes. This study uses two successive nationally representative household surveys: the 2003 and 2008 Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS). The two datasets have comparable information on household characteristics and skilled attendants at birth at the time of the survey. The 2003 GDHS database includes information on 6,251 households and 3639 live births in the five years preceding the survey, whereas the 2008 GDHS database had information on11, 778 households and 2909 live births in the five years preceding the survey. A decomposition approach was used to explain the observed change in percentage of skilled birth attendants. Random-effects generalized least square regression was used to explore the effect of changes in population structure in respect of the mother's characteristics on percentage of skilled birth attendants over the period. Overall, the data showed absolute gain in the proportion of births attended by a health professional from 47.1% in 2003 to 58.7% in 2008, which represents 21.9% of gap closed to reach universal coverage. The increase in skilled birth attendants was found to be caused by changes in general health behaviour. The gain is regardless of the mother's characteristics. The structural change in the proportion of births in respect of birth order and mother's education had little effect on the change in percentage of skilled birth attendants. Improvement in general health behaviour can potentially contribute to an accelerated increase in proportion


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenia Harja


    Full Text Available Livestock population and its structure is the starting point for all development strategies at both micro and macro level, reason for which accurate knowledge of it is one of the main objectives of official statistics in each state. The analysis aims to highlight the major changes produced after the 90s in terms of population of Bacău county and its structure, with time effects on economic and social activity. Both the 2002 and 2011 census, Bacău was top of the list with an absolute decrease of the population. This was a concern as it has emerged over time as a stable phenomenon. The main reason for the decrease was due to external migration of the population and secondly because of the internal migration flows of population moving towards large economic centers in the country and abroad that attract labor. As most of the migrants are young and active age groups, this phenomena has led to an aging population and to imbalances that can be observed in the age pyramid, with negative effects becoming larger in the future.

  7. Rapid changes in gene expression direct rapid shifts in intestinal form and function in the Burmese python after feeding. (United States)

    Andrew, Audra L; Card, Daren C; Ruggiero, Robert P; Schield, Drew R; Adams, Richard H; Pollock, David D; Secor, Stephen M; Castoe, Todd A


    Snakes provide a unique and valuable model system for studying the extremes of physiological remodeling because of the ability of some species to rapidly upregulate organ form and function upon feeding. The predominant model species used to study such extreme responses has been the Burmese python because of the extreme nature of postfeeding response in this species. We analyzed the Burmese python intestine across a time series, before, during, and after feeding to understand the patterns and timing of changes in gene expression and their relationship to changes in intestinal form and function upon feeding. Our results indicate that >2,000 genes show significant changes in expression in the small intestine following feeding, including genes involved in intestinal morphology and function (e.g., hydrolases, microvillus proteins, trafficking and transport proteins), as well as genes involved in cell division and apoptosis. Extensive changes in gene expression occur surprisingly rapidly, within the first 6 h of feeding, coincide with changes in intestinal morphology, and effectively return to prefeeding levels within 10 days. Collectively, our results provide an unprecedented portrait of parallel changes in gene expression and intestinal morphology and physiology on a scale that is extreme both in the magnitude of changes, as well as in the incredibly short time frame of these changes, with up- and downregulation of expression and function occurring in the span of 10 days. Our results also identify conserved vertebrate signaling pathways that modulate these responses, which may suggest pathways for therapeutic modulation of intestinal function in humans. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  8. Use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in US adults: changes over time and by demographic. (United States)

    Davis, Jennifer S; Lee, Hwa Young; Kim, Jihye; Advani, Shailesh M; Peng, Ho-Lan; Banfield, Emilyn; Hawk, Ernest T; Chang, Shine; Frazier-Wood, Alexis C


    Aspirin and non-aspirin non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are preventive against cardiovascular disease (CVD) and several cancer types, but long-term use has been associated with significant health risks, resulting in conflicting recommendations on NSAID use for prevention of CVD and cancer. Previous research indicates that aspirin use increases with age and CVD risk factors and that a large percentage of the US population regularly use analgesics, including NSAIDs, but there has not been a recent, in-depth assessment of NSAID use prevalence, changes in use over time or predictors of NSAID use in the USA. We used the cross-sectional, National Health And Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 1988 to 1994 and three continuous cycles (1999-2004) to assess regular NSAID use prevalence, changes over time and predictors of regular NSAID use. Overall, regular NSAID use increased over time and varied by demographic features. Participants over 60 years of age, women, participants with high body mass index, increased waist circumference or heart disease were significantly more likely to be regular NSAID users. By contrast, non-Hispanic African American and Mexican American participants were significantly less likely to regularly use NSAIDs. This study uses a nationally representative data set (NHANES) to provide an exploration of regular NSAID use patterns over time, highlighting several demographic, lifestyle and clinical conditions associated with regular NSAID use. Understanding who is likely to regularly use NSAIDs enables more targeted messaging both for increasing the preventive benefits and for limiting the toxicities associated with regular use of NSAIDs.

  9. Socio-demographic predictors of health and environmental co-benefit behaviours for climate change mitigation in urban China. (United States)

    Chan, Emily Ying Yang; Wang, Susan Shuxin; Ho, Janice Ying-En; Huang, Zhe; Liu, Sida; Guo, Chunlan


    This study aims to examine the patterns and socio-demographic predictors of health and environmental co-benefit behaviours that support climate change mitigation in a densely populated Asian metropolis-Hong Kong. A population-based, stratified and cross-sectional random digit dialling telephone survey study was conducted between January and February 2016, among the Cantonese-speaking population aged 15 and above in Hong Kong. Socio-demographic data and the self-reported practice of 10 different co-benefit behaviours were solicited. Ethics approval and participant's verbal consent were sought. The study sample consisted of 1,017 respondents (response rate: 63.6%) were comparable to the age, gender and geographical distributions of the Hong Kong population found in the latest 2011 Hong Kong Population Census. Among the co-benefit behaviours, using less packaging and disposable shopping bags were practiced in the highest frequency (70.1%). However, four behaviours were found to have never been practiced by more than half of the respondents, including bringing personal eating utensils when dining in restaurants or small eateries, showering less than five minutes, having one vegetarian meal a week, and buying more organic food. Results of multivariable logistic regression showed that frequency of practicing co-benefit behaviours were consistently associated with gender and age. Urban residents in Hong Kong do not engage in the practice of co-benefit behaviours in a uniform way. In general, females and older people are more likely to adopt co-benefit behaviours in their daily lives. Further research to assess the knowledge and attitudes of the population towards these co-benefit behaviours will provide support to relevant climate change mitigation policies and education programmes.

  10. Rapid adaptive responses to climate change in corals

    KAUST Repository

    Torda, Gergely; Donelson, Jennifer M.; Aranda, Manuel; Barshis, Daniel J.; Bay, Line; Berumen, Michael L.; Bourne, David G.; Cantin, Neal; Foret, Sylvain; Matz, Mikhail; Miller, David J.; Moya, Aurelie; Putnam, Hollie M.; Ravasi, Timothy; van Oppen, Madeleine J. H.; Thurber, Rebecca Vega; Vidal-Dupiol, Jeremie; Voolstra, Christian R.; Watson, Sue-Ann; Whitelaw, Emma; Willis, Bette L.; Munday, Philip L.


    Pivotal to projecting the fate of coral reefs is the capacity of reef-building corals to acclimatize and adapt to climate change. Transgenerational plasticity may enable some marine organisms to acclimatize over several generations and it has been hypothesized that epigenetic processes and microbial associations might facilitate adaptive responses. However, current evidence is equivocal and understanding of the underlying processes is limited. Here, we discuss prospects for observing transgenerational plasticity in corals and the mechanisms that could enable adaptive plasticity in the coral holobiont, including the potential role of epigenetics and coral-associated microbes. Well-designed and strictly controlled experiments are needed to distinguish transgenerational plasticity from other forms of plasticity, and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms and their relative importance compared with genetic adaptation.

  11. Rapid changes in the gut microbiome during human evolution. (United States)

    Moeller, Andrew H; Li, Yingying; Mpoudi Ngole, Eitel; Ahuka-Mundeke, Steve; Lonsdorf, Elizabeth V; Pusey, Anne E; Peeters, Martine; Hahn, Beatrice H; Ochman, Howard


    Humans are ecosystems containing trillions of microorganisms, but the evolutionary history of this microbiome is obscured by a lack of knowledge about microbiomes of African apes. We sequenced the gut communities of hundreds of chimpanzees, bonobos, and gorillas and developed a phylogenetic approach to reconstruct how present-day human microbiomes have diverged from those of ancestral populations. Compositional change in the microbiome was slow and clock-like during African ape diversification, but human microbiomes have deviated from the ancestral state at an accelerated rate. Relative to the microbiomes of wild apes, human microbiomes have lost ancestral microbial diversity while becoming specialized for animal-based diets. Individual wild apes cultivate more phyla, classes, orders, families, genera, and species of bacteria than do individual humans across a range of societies. These results indicate that humanity has experienced a depletion of the gut flora since diverging from Pan.

  12. Rapid adaptive responses to climate change in corals

    KAUST Repository

    Torda, Gergely


    Pivotal to projecting the fate of coral reefs is the capacity of reef-building corals to acclimatize and adapt to climate change. Transgenerational plasticity may enable some marine organisms to acclimatize over several generations and it has been hypothesized that epigenetic processes and microbial associations might facilitate adaptive responses. However, current evidence is equivocal and understanding of the underlying processes is limited. Here, we discuss prospects for observing transgenerational plasticity in corals and the mechanisms that could enable adaptive plasticity in the coral holobiont, including the potential role of epigenetics and coral-associated microbes. Well-designed and strictly controlled experiments are needed to distinguish transgenerational plasticity from other forms of plasticity, and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms and their relative importance compared with genetic adaptation.

  13. The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change (United States)

    McCauley, Lisa A.; Ribic, Christine; Pomara, Lars Y.; Zuckerberg, Benjamin


    ContextTemperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few studies examining the effect of weather on grassland bird demography and consequent influence of climate change on population persistence and distributional shifts.ObjectivesThe goal of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of Henslow’s Sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii), an obligate grassland bird that has been declining throughout much of its range, to past and future climatic variability.MethodsWe conducted a demographic meta-analysis from published studies and quantified the relationship between nest success rates and variability in breeding season climate. We projected the climate-demography relationships spatially, throughout the breeding range, and temporally, from 1981 to 2050. These projections were used to evaluate population dynamics by implementing a spatially explicit population model.ResultsWe uncovered a climate-demography linkage for Henslow’s Sparrow with summer precipitation, and to a lesser degree, temperature positively affecting nest success. We found that future climatic conditions—primarily changes in precipitation—will likely contribute to reduced population persistence and a southwestward range contraction.ConclusionsFuture distributional shifts in response to climate change may not always be poleward and assessing projected changes in precipitation is critical for grassland bird conservation and climate change adaptation.

  14. Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species. (United States)

    Pomara, Lars Y; LeDee, Olivia E; Martin, Karl J; Zuckerberg, Benjamin


    Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range-wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back-cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long-term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long-term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high-conservation concern. Range-wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal-limited species. Climate change vulnerability

  15. Double Exposure and the Climate Gap: Changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico (United States)

    Collins, Timothy W.; McDonald, Yolanda J.; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto


    Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed. PMID:25642135

  16. Ethnobiology 5: Interdisciplinarity in an Era of Rapid Environmental Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve Wolverton


    Full Text Available Ethnobiology 5 stems from Eugene Hunn’s four phases of the history of ethnobiology and focuses on the relevance of ethnobiological research in the context of environmental and cultural change.  It refers to a contemporary phase of the field’s historical development.  In this paper, I argue that ethnobiology is preadapted to be a scholarly umbrella for a number of disciplines that concern human-environment interactions, suggesting that one goal of Ethnobiology 5 is to bridge traditional academic boundaries in order to broaden the community of ethnobiologists. Another goal of Ethnobiology 5 is to capitalize on and communicate the relevance of ethnobiological scholarship for solving problems related to contemporary environmental and cultural crises.  Indeed, ethnobiology is not a subfield of any traditional discipline and by the nature of its name bridges humanities, social science, and science.  Ethnobiology has always been interdisciplinary in terms of its subject matter, yet its community of scholars is relatively small compared to mission-driven disciplines, such as conservation biology.  Venues for publication and presentation of ethnobiological research, as well as how ethnobiologists portray their research, are critical to growing ethnobiology.

  17. Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification (United States)

    Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Mumby, P. J.; Hooten, A. J.; Steneck, R. S.; Greenfield, P.; Gomez, E.; Harvell, C. D.; Sale, P. F.; Edwards, A. J.; Caldeira, K.; Knowlton, N.; Eakin, C. M.; Iglesias-Prieto, R.; Muthiga, N.; Bradbury, R. H.; Dubi, A.; Hatziolos, M. E.


    Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to exceed 500 parts per million and global temperatures to rise by at least 2°C by 2050 to 2100, values that significantly exceed those of at least the past 420,000 years during which most extant marine organisms evolved. Under conditions expected in the 21st century, global warming and ocean acidification will compromise carbonate accretion, with corals becoming increasingly rare on reef systems. The result will be less diverse reef communities and carbonate reef structures that fail to be maintained. Climate change also exacerbates local stresses from declining water quality and overexploitation of key species, driving reefs increasingly toward the tipping point for functional collapse. This review presents future scenarios for coral reefs that predict increasingly serious consequences for reef-associated fisheries, tourism, coastal protection, and people. As the International Year of the Reef 2008 begins, scaled-up management intervention and decisive action on global emissions are required if the loss of coral-dominated ecosystems is to be avoided.

  18. Health impacts of rapid economic changes in Thailand. (United States)

    Tangcharoensathien, V; Harnvoravongchai, P; Pitayarangsarit, S; Kasemsup, V


    The economic crisis in Thailand in July 1997 had major social implications for unemployment, under employment, household income contraction, changing expenditure patterns, and child abandonment. The crisis increased poverty incidence by 1 million, of whom 54% were the ultra-poor. This paper explores and explains the short-term health impact of the crisis, using existing data and some special surveys and interviews for 2 years during 1998-99. The health impacts of the crisis are mixed, some being negative and some being positive. Household health expenditure reduced by 24% in real terms; among the poorer households, institutional care was replaced by self-medication. The pre-crisis rising trend in expenditure on alcohol and tobacco consumption was reversed. Immunization spending and coverage were sustained at a very high level after the crisis, but reports of increases in diphtheria and pertussis indicate declining programme quality. An increase in malaria, despite budget increases, had many causes but was mainly due to reduced programme effectiveness. STD incidence continued the pre-crisis downward trend. Rates of HIV risky sexual behaviour were higher among conscripts than other male workers, but in both groups there was lower condom use with casual partners. HIV serosurveillance showed a continuation of the pre-crisis downward trend among commercial sex workers (CSW, both brothel and non-brothel based), pregnant women and donated blood; this trend was slightly reversed among male STD patients and more among intravenous drug users. Condom coverage among brothel based CSW continued to increase to 97.5%, despite a 72% budget cut in free condom distribution. Poverty and lack of insurance coverage are two major determinants of absence of or inadequate antenatal care, and low birthweight. The Low Income Scheme could not adequately cover the poor but the voluntary Health Card Scheme played a health safety net role for maternal and child health. Low birthweight and

  19. Changes of marital behavior and family patterns in post-socialist countries: Delayed, incomplete or specific second demographic transition?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Mina


    Full Text Available The paper starts by questioning the theory of second demographic transition (SDT and its universal relevance in the field of marriage behavior and family organization in low fertility context, arguing for more differentiated approaches. With an aim to illustrate the contextual specifics of post-socialist countries in general and of Serbia in particular, the author claims that analyzed changes have not just been delayed or incomplete in comparison to more developed European countries, but shaped by specific modernization processes, which led to rationally developed strategies in overcoming structural risks, although, without ideational changes typical to the theory of SDT. Slow changes in marital behavior and family organization in Serbia are illustrated in recent sociological (empirical research findings. The perceived changes are linked to specific structural risks (war, slow transformation and enduring economic hardships, weak state and low trust in institutions, etc and value characteristics (persistence of materialism and traditionalism, but with increasing ambivalence. The connection between structural and ideational changes is considered through social stratification variable by relying on Coale's model on necessary preconditions for behavioral changes as well as on social deprivation concept. Having in mind upper social strata (more educated and better off, the value changes precede the behavioral that are adapted to economic uncertainty, which still force more traditional marital and family patterns. Therefore, there is a rank of different options, from extended family (for a short period at the beginning of marriage or after divorce to separated leaving (of married partners in parental households (due to refusing the extended family option thus creating quite specific "living apart together" form, combined with dominant strategy of prolonging the marriage. Hence, for upper social strata, marriage is still a universal but negotiable

  20. Linking temporal changes in the demographic structure and individual growth to the decline in the population of a tropical fish (United States)

    Sirot, Charlotte; Darnaude, Audrey M.; Guilhaumon, François; Ramos-Miranda, Julia; Flores-Hernandez, Domingo; Panfili, Jacques


    The exceptional biodiversity and productivity of tropical coastal lagoons can only be preserved by identifying the causes for the decline in the populations living in these vulnerable ecosystems. The Terminos lagoon in Mexico provided an opportunity for studying this issue as some of its fish populations, in particular the Silver Perch (Bairdiella chrysoura), have declined significantly since the 1980s. Fish sampling campaigns carried out over the whole lagoon area in 1979-81 and again in 2006-2011 revealed the mechanisms which may have been responsible for this decline. Based on biometrical data for 295 juveniles and adults from the two periods and on somatic growth derived from 173 otoliths, a study of the temporal changes in the demographic structure and life history traits (individual growth and body condition) made it possible to distinguish the causes of the decline in the B. chrysoura population. Growth models for the lagoon in 1980-1981 and 2006-2011 showed no significant change in the growth parameters of the population over the last 30 years with a logistic model giving an accurate estimate (R2 = 0.66) of the size-at-age for both periods. The decline in the B. chrysoura population could not be explained by an overall decrease in individual size and condition in the lagoon, the average standard length (SL) and Fulton index (FI) having increased slightly since 1980-1981 (4.6 mm and 0.02 for juveniles and 5.42 mm and 0.07 for adults). However, the size structure of the population in the lagoon has changed, with a significant shift in the size distribution of juveniles with a marked reduction in the proportion of juveniles ≤ 60 mm in the captures (90.9% fewer than in 1980-1981). As the otolith growth rate of fish during the first 4 months also decreased significantly between the two sampling periods (-15%), it is suggested that the main reason for the decline in the abundance and biomass of B. chrysoura within this system may be that its habitats are less

  1. Socio-Demographic and Lifestyle Factors Predict 5-Year Changes in Adiposity among a Group of Black South African Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornelie Nienaber-Rousseau


    Full Text Available The rising prevalence of obesity and excessive adiposity are global public health concerns. Understanding determinants of changes in adiposity over time is critical for informing effective evidence-based prevention or treatment. However, limited information is available to achieve this objective. Cultural, demographic, environmental, and behavioral factors including socio-economic status (SES likely account for obesity development. To this end, we related these variables to anthropometric measures in 1058 black adult Tswana-speaking South Africans who were HIV negative in a prospective study over five years. Body mass index (BMI and waist circumference increased in both sexes, whereas triceps skinfold thickness remained the same. Over the five years, women moved to higher BMI categories and more were diagnosed with central obesity. Age correlated negatively, whereas SES, physical activity, energy, and fat intake correlated positively with adiposity markers in women. In men, SES, marital status, physical activity, and being urban predicted increases in adiposity. For women, SES and urbanicity increased, whereas menopause and smoking decreased adiposity. Among men, smokers had less change in BMI than those that never smoked over five years. Our findings suggest that interventions, focusing on the urban living, the married and those with the highest SES—the high-risk groups identified herein—are of primary importance to contain morbidity and premature mortality due to obesity in black South Africans.

  2. [Trends of change in demographic indices of population in the area of oil and gas deposits of the republic of Kazakhstan]. (United States)

    Kenessaryiev, U I; Yerzhanova, A E; Kenessary, D U; Kenessary, A U

    According to assured resources of hydrocarbons the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) is among ten largest oil countries in the world, trailing only some states of the Middle East, Latin America, as well Russia and the USA. Public health state is the one of most important indices of social development, the manifestation of the economic and sanitaryhygienic welfare, as well as national defense capability and cultural potential of the state. In relation with the intensive development of oil and gas fields the problems of environmental protection and healthcare of the population in these regions occur critically. Therefore, it causes keen interest both from the side of researches and practical health care workers. Rapid development of the oil and gas industry leads to changes in a medical and demographic situation of given regions that is related both with the natural migration of the population and other migratory processes. According to data of the Ministry of Energetics and natural resources of RK, the Karachaganak oil-gas condensate deposit is considered to be the one of the largest in the world. For the next 40 years, the field is becoming the stable financial donor of the country. Currently Karachaganak field is considered to be the one of the largest investment projects in Kazakhstan. The studied oil and gas condensate field is located in the Burlin district of West Kazakhstan region, which is 140 km far from the city of Uralsk and 160 km far from the city of Orenburg. The field was discovered in 1984.

  3. Migration, settlement change and health in post-apartheid South Africa: triangulating health and demographic surveillance with national census data. (United States)

    Collinson, Mark A; Tollman, Stephen M; Kahn, Kathleen


    World population growth will be increasingly concentrated in the urban areas of the developing world; however, some scholars caution against the oversimplification of African urbanization noting that there may be "counter-urbanization" and a prevailing pattern of circular rural-urban migration. The aim of the paper is to examine the ongoing urban transition in South Africa in the post-apartheid period, and to consider the health and social policy implications of prevailing migration patterns. Two data sets were analysed, namely the South African national census of 2001 and the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system. A settlement-type transition matrix was constructed on the national data to show how patterns of settlement have changed in a five-year period. Using the sub-district data, permanent and temporary migration was characterized, providing migration rates by age and sex, and showing the distribution of origins and destinations. The comparison of national and sub-district data highlight the following features: urban population growth, particularly in metropolitan areas, resulting from permanent and temporary migration; prevailing patterns of temporary, circular migration, and a changing gender balance in this form of migration; stepwise urbanization; and return migration from urban to rural areas. Policy concerns include: rural poverty exacerbated by labour migration; explosive conditions for the transmission of HIV; labour migrants returning to die in rural areas; and the challenges for health information created by chronically ill migrants returning to rural areas to convalesce. Lastly, suggestions are made on how to address the dearth of relevant population information for policy-making in the fields of migration, settlement change and health.

  4. Impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions for climate change: a path analysis with mediating effects of attitudinal variables. (United States)

    Masud, Muhammad Mehedi; Akhatr, Rulia; Nasrin, Shamima; Adamu, Ibrahim Mohammed


    Socio-demographic factors play a significant role in increasing the individual's climate change awareness and in setting a favorable individual attitude towards its mitigation. To better understand how the adversative effects of climate change can be mitigated, this study attempts to investigate the impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions of the individuals (MAOI) on climate change. Qualitative data were collected from a face-to-face survey of 360 respondents in the Kuala Lumpur region of Malaysia through a close-ended questionnaire. Analysis was conducted on the mediating effects of attitudinal variables through the path model by using the SEM. Findings indicate that the socio-demographic factors such as gender, age, education, income, and ethnicity can greatly influence the individual's awareness, attitude, risk perception, and knowledge of climate change issues. The results drawn from this study also revealed that the attitudinal factors act as a mediating effect between the socio-demographic factors and the MAOI, thereby, indicating that both the socio-demographic factors and the attitudinal factors have significant effects on the MAOI towards climate change. The outcome of this study can help policy makers and other private organizations to decide on the appropriate actions to take in managing climate change effects. These actions which encompass improving basic climate change education and making the public more aware of the local dimensions of climate change are important for harnessing public engagement and support that can also stimulate climate change awareness and promote mitigating actions to n protect the environment from the impact of climate change.

  5. Long-term culture change related to rapid response system implementation. (United States)

    Stevens, Jennifer; Johansson, Anna; Lennes, Inga; Hsu, Douglas; Tess, Anjala; Howell, Michael


    Increasing attention to patient safety in training hospitals may come at the expense of trainee autonomy and professional growth. This study sought to examine changes in medical trainees' self-reported behaviour after the institution-wide implementation of a rapid response system. We conducted a two-point cross-sectional survey of medical trainees in 2006, during the implementation of a rapid response system, and in 2010, in a single academic medical centre. A novel instrument was used to measure trainee likelihood of calling for supervisory assistance, perception of autonomy, and comfort in managing decompensating patients. Non-parametric tests to assess for change were used and year of training was evaluated as an effect modifier. Response rates were 38% in 2006 and 70% in 2010. After 5 years of the full implementation of the rapid response system, residents were significantly more likely to report calling their attending physicians for assistance (rising from 40% to 65% of relevant situations; p autonomy at 5 years after the implementation of the rapid response system. These changes were mirrored in the actual use of the rapid response system, which increased by 41% during the 5-year period after adjustment for patient volume (p < 0.0001). A primary team-focused implementation of a rapid response system was associated with durable changes in resident physicians' reported behaviour, including increased comfort with involving more experienced physicians and managing unstable patients. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Classic And "Next Generation" Citizen Science: Expanding Data-gathering And Participant Demographics To Better Document Global Environmental Change. (United States)

    Haines-Stiles, G.


    Long-standing citizen science projects such as Audubon's Christmas Bird Count have generated useful data about species range and population numbers for more than 100 years. Recent IPCC reports and the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) routinely include data about changing ecosystems and enviroments. Today new forms of citizen science are beginning to join such classic examples and broaden the demographics of participants and the kinds of information that can be captured, shared and analyzed. Surfers and scientists are hoping to record near-shore measurements of ocean acidification in Smartfin, through GPS, accelerometers and pH sensors on surfboards. Trout Unlimited is working on "Angler Science", documenting water temperature and stream quality in a changing climate, and using DNA analysis to track invasive species. The West Oakland Environmental Indicators Project is adding community mobilization in the face of sea level rise to its decade-long work on air pollution, particulates and asthma. The National Phenology Network encourages year-long observations using the "-Nature's Notebook" app that extend beyond anything possible using government-funded research alone. Understanding oceans, protecting rivers and identifying long-term patterns can contribute useful data to future NCAs, helping meet the otherwise challenging goal of "continuous assessment." How can we manage what we can't measure, for reasons of limited staff or resources? This presentation will offer one answer: by enlisting more and more citizen scientists--sportsmen and women, hobbyists and outdoor enthusiasts who may not even self identify as "citizen scientists"--pursuing their passions while also contributing valuable GEC data. The presentation will also touch on what kinds of information infrastructure can help assure data quality when traditional citizen science is expanded in these ways.

  7. Rapid changes in the range limits of Scots pine 4000 years ago

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gear, A.J.; Huntley, B.


    Paleoecological data provide estimates of response rates to past climate changes. Fossil Pinus sylvestris stumps in far northern Scotland demonstrate former presence of pine trees where conventional pollen evidence of pine forests is lacking. Radiocarbon, dendrochronological, and fine temporal-resolution palynological data show that pine forest were present for about four centuries some 4,000 years ago; the forests expanded and then retreated rapidly some 70 to 80 kilometers. Despite the rapidity of this response to climate change, it occurred at rates slower by an order of magnitude than those necessary to maintain equilibrium with forecast climate changes attributed to the greenhouse effect

  8. Understanding rapid theoretical change in particle physics: a month-by-month co-citation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, D.; Koester, D.; White, D.H.; Kern, R.


    While co-citation analysis has proved a powerful tool in the study of changes in intellectual foci in science, no one has ever used the technique to study very rapid changes in the theoretical structure of a scientific field. This paper presents month-by-month co-citation analyses of key phases in the weak-electromagnetic unification research program within particle physics, and shows that these analyses capture and illuminate very rapid intellectual changes. These data provide yet another illustration of the utility of co-citation analysis for understanding the history of science. 8 figures

  9. Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age. (United States)

    Armit, Ian; Swindles, Graeme T; Becker, Katharina; Plunkett, Gill; Blaauw, Maarten


    The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological (14)C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

  10. Curioser and Curioser: New Concepts in the Rapidly Changing Landscape of Educational Administration. (United States)

    Fowler, Frances C.


    The new "Handbook" assumes that society is changing rapidly and educational administration must change with it. This article critiques chapters on four concepts: ideology, the new consumerism, social capital, and the new institutionalism. Consumerism is pure 19th-century liberalism/individualism; social capital theory and…

  11. The role of behavioral economic incentive design and demographic characteristics in financial incentive-based approaches to changing health behaviors: a meta-analysis. (United States)

    Haff, Nancy; Patel, Mitesh S; Lim, Raymond; Zhu, Jingsan; Troxel, Andrea B; Asch, David A; Volpp, Kevin G


    To evaluate the use of behavioral economics to design financial incentives to promote health behavior change and to explore associations with demographic characteristics. Studies performed by the Center for Health Incentives and Behavioral Economics at the University of Pennsylvania published between January 2006 and March 2014. Randomized, controlled trials with available participant-level data. Studies that did not use financial incentives to promote health behavior change were excluded. Participant-level data from seven studies were pooled. Meta-analysis on the pooled sample using a random-effects model with interaction terms to examine treatment effects and whether they varied by incentive structure or demographic characteristics. The pooled study sample comprised 1403 participants, of whom 35% were female, 70% were white, 24% were black, and the mean age was 48 years (standard deviation 11.2 years). In the fully adjusted model, participants offered financial incentives had higher odds of behavior change (odds ratio [OR]: 3.96; p financial incentives and gender, age, race, income, or education. When further adjusting for incentive structure, blacks had higher odds than whites of achieving behavior change (OR: 1.67; p Financial incentives designed using concepts from behavioral economics were effective for promoting health behavior change. There were no large and consistent relationships between the effectiveness of financial incentives and observable demographic characteristics. Second-order examinations of incentive structure suggest potential relationships among the effectiveness of financial incentives, incentive structure, and the demographic characteristics of race and income.

  12. Strategic Enrollment Management in the Age of Austerity and Changing Demographics: Managing Recruitment, Leveraging, Revenue, and Access in Challenging Economic Times (United States)

    Langston, Randall; Scheid, Jamie


    Ever since the beginning of the Great Recession, higher education has braced for the impending age of austerity and changing demographics. Now a reality, these conditions threaten the ability of institutions of higher education to remain competitive in an ever growing global marketplace. This article presents several core SEM strategies that can…

  13. Demograficheskie izmenenija v Germanii i novaja territorial'naja struktura starenija [Demographic change in Germany and reversal of spatial ageing patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swiaczny Frank


    Full Text Available The paper presents the result of a spatial analysis considering the effect of demographic ageing and ageing-in-place processes in Germany according to spatially differentiated ageing patterns among urban, sub-urban and rural counties up to 2025. As to the latest official population forecast counties of urban core regions will undergo a slower ageing process than other types of counties, resulting in a reversal of ageing patterns. Urban core areas in this analysis will gain demographically from their net migration surplus while suburban housing locations of the past will be no longer able to attract enough young migrants to compensate for their now rapidly ageing baby boomer generation. The process presented is typical for the fate of (suburban housing areas with homogenous populations under conditions of ageing and shrinking if spatial mobility in ageing population groups is declining.

  14. Monitoring changes in seismic velocity related to an ongoing rapid inflation event at Okmok volcano, Alaska (United States)

    Bennington, Ninfa; Haney, Matt; De Angelis, Silvio; Thurber, Clifford; Freymueller, Jeff


    Okmok is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian Arc. In an effort to improve our ability to detect precursory activity leading to eruption at Okmok, we monitor a recent, and possibly ongoing, GPS-inferred rapid inflation event at the volcano using ambient noise interferometry (ANI). Applying this method, we identify changes in seismic velocity outside of Okmok’s caldera, which are related to the hydrologic cycle. Within the caldera, we observe decreases in seismic velocity that are associated with the GPS-inferred rapid inflation event. We also determine temporal changes in waveform decorrelation and show a continual increase in decorrelation rate over the time associated with the rapid inflation event. Themagnitude of relative velocity decreases and decorrelation rate increases are comparable to previous studies at Piton de la Fournaise that associate such changes with increased production of volatiles and/ormagmatic intrusion within the magma reservoir and associated opening of fractures and/or fissures. Notably, the largest decrease in relative velocity occurs along the intrastation path passing nearest to the center of the caldera. This observation, along with equal amplitude relative velocity decreases revealed via analysis of intracaldera autocorrelations, suggests that the inflation sourcemay be located approximately within the center of the caldera and represent recharge of shallow magma storage in this location. Importantly, there is a relative absence of seismicity associated with this and previous rapid inflation events at Okmok. Thus, these ANI results are the first seismic evidence of such rapid inflation at the volcano.

  15. Rapid ecosystem change challenges the adaptive capacity of Local Environmental Knowledge. (United States)

    Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Díaz-Reviriego, Isabel; Luz, Ana C; Cabeza, Mar; Pyhälä, Aili; Reyes-García, Victoria


    The use of Local Environmental Knowledge has been considered as an important strategy for adaptive management in the face of Global Environmental Change. However, the unprecedented rates at which global change occurs may pose a challenge to the adaptive capacity of local knowledge systems. In this paper, we use the concept of the shifting baseline syndrome to examine the limits in the adaptive capacity of the local knowledge of an indigenous society facing rapid ecosystem change. We conducted semi-structured interviews regarding perceptions of change in wildlife populations and in intergenerational transmission of knowledge amongst the Tsimane', a group of hunter-gatherers of Bolivian Amazonia ( n = 300 adults in 13 villages). We found that the natural baseline against which the Tsimane' measure ecosystem changes might be shifting with every generation as a result of (a) age-related differences in the perception of change and (b) a decrease in the intergenerational sharing of environmental knowledge. Such findings suggest that local knowledge systems might not change at a rate quick enough to adapt to conditions of rapid ecosystem change, hence potentially compromising the adaptive success of the entire social-ecological system. With the current pace of Global Environmental Change, widening the gap between the temporal rates of on-going ecosystem change and the timescale needed for local knowledge systems to adjust to change, efforts to tackle the shifting baseline syndrome are urgent and critical for those who aim to use Local Environmental Knowledge as a tool for adaptive management.

  16. The impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030, and the potential from rapid, inclusive and climate-informed development (United States)

    Rozenberg, J.; Hallegatte, S.


    There is a consensus on the fact that poor people are more vulnerable to climate change than the rest of the population, but, until recently, few quantified estimates had been proposed and few frameworks existed to design policies for addressing the issue. In this paper, we analyze the impacts of climate change on poverty using micro-simulation approaches. We start from household surveys that describe the current distribution of income and occupations, we project these households into the future and we look at the impacts of climate change on people's income. To project households into the future, we explore a large range of assumptions on future demographic changes (including on education), technological changes, and socio-economic trends (including redistribution policies). This approach allows us to identify the main combination of factors that lead to fast poverty reduction, and the ones that lead to high climate change impacts on the poor. Identifying these factors is critical for designing efficient policies to protect the poorest from climate change impacts and making economic growth more inclusive. Conclusions are twofold. First, by 2030 climate change can have a large impact on poverty, with between 3 and 122 million more people in poverty, but climate change remains a secondary driver of poverty trends within this time horizon. Climate change impacts do not only affect the poorest: in 2030, the bottom 40 percent lose more than 4 percent of income in many countries. The regional hotspots are Sub-Saharan Africa and - to a lesser extent - India and the rest of South Asia. The most important channel through which climate change increases poverty is through agricultural income and food prices. Second, by 2030 and in the absence of surprises on climate impacts, inclusive climate-informed development can prevent most of (but not all) the impacts on poverty. In a scenario with rapid, inclusive and climate-proof development, climate change impact on poverty is

  17. Demographic Transformation in a Policy Vacuum: The Changing Face of U.S. Metropolitan Society and Challenges for Public Schools (United States)

    Mordechay, Kfir; Orfield, Gary


    Educators and policy makers must confront the race and class disparities in learning opportunities across American society. Nowhere are these disparities more acute than in the country's great metropolitan areas. As the demographic landscape continues to shift, metropolitan areas are fueling the transition to a majority-minority country. This…

  18. Engaging Chicago residents in climate change action: Results from Rapid Ethnographic Inquiry (United States)

    Lynne M. Westphal; Jennifer. Hirsch


    Addressing climate change requires action at all levels of society, from neighborhood to international levels. Using Rapid Ethnography rooted in Asset Based Community Development theory, we investigated climate-friendly attitudes and behaviors in two Chicago neighborhoods in order to assist the City with implementation of its Climate Action Plan. Our research suggests...

  19. Computed tomographic demonstration of rapid changes in fatty infiltration of the liver

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bashist, B.; Hecht, H.L.; Harely, W.D.


    Two alcoholic patients in whom computed tomography (CT) demonstrated reversal of fatty infiltration of the liver are described. The rapid reversibility of fatty infiltration can be useful in monitoring alcoholics with fatty livers. Focal fatty infiltration can mimic focal hepatic lesions and repeat scans can be utilized to assess changes in CT attenuation values when this condition is suspected

  20. A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide (United States)

    López-Carr, David; Pricope, Narcisa G.; Aukema, Juliann E.; Jankowska, Marta M.; Funk, Christopher C.; Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel C.


    We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

  1. Rapid stress-induced transcriptomic changes in the brain depend on beta-adrenergic signaling. (United States)

    Roszkowski, Martin; Manuella, Francesca; von Ziegler, Lukas; Durán-Pacheco, Gonzalo; Moreau, Jean-Luc; Mansuy, Isabelle M; Bohacek, Johannes


    Acute exposure to stressful experiences can rapidly increase anxiety and cause neuropsychiatric disorders. The effects of stress result in part from the release of neurotransmitters and hormones, which regulate gene expression in different brain regions. The fast neuroendocrine response to stress is largely mediated by norepinephrine (NE) and corticotropin releasing hormone (CRH), followed by a slower and more sustained release of corticosterone. While corticosterone is an important regulator of gene expression, it is not clear which stress-signals contribute to the rapid regulation of gene expression observed immediately after stress exposure. Here, we demonstrate in mice that 45 min after an acute swim stress challenge, large changes in gene expression occur across the transcriptome in the hippocampus, a region sensitive to the effects of stress. We identify multiple candidate genes that are rapidly and transiently altered in both males and females. Using a pharmacological approach, we show that most of these rapidly induced genes are regulated by NE through β-adrenergic receptor signaling. We find that CRH and corticosterone can also contribute to rapid changes in gene expression, although these effects appear to be restricted to fewer genes. These results newly reveal a widespread impact of NE on the transcriptome and identify novel genes associated with stress and adrenergic signaling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Rapid structural and compositional change in an old-growth subtropical forest: using plant traits to identify probable drivers. (United States)

    Malizia, Agustina; Easdale, Tomás A; Grau, H Ricardo


    Recent studies have shown directional changes in old-growth tropical forests, but changes are complex and diverse, and their drivers unclear. Here, we report rapid net structural and compositional changes in an old-growth subtropical forest and we assess the functional nature of these changes to test hypothetical drivers including recovery from past disturbances, reduction in ungulate browsing, CO2 fertilization, and increases in rainfall and temperature. The study relies on 15 years of demographic monitoring within 8 ha of subtropical montane forest in Argentina. Between 1992 and 2007, stem density markedly increased by 50% (12 stems ha(-1) y(-1)) and basal area by 6% (0.13 m(2) ha(-1) y(-1)). Increased stem density resulted from enhanced recruitment of understory treelets (Piper tucumanum, Eugenia uniflora, Allophylus edulis) into small size classes. Among 27 common tree species, net population growth was negatively correlated with maximum tree size and longevity, and positively correlated with leaf size and leaf nutrient content, especially so when initial population size was controlled for. Changes were inconsistent with predictions derived from past disturbances (no increase in shade-tolerant or long-lived late-succesional species), rainfall or temperature increase (no increase in evergreen or deciduous species, respectively). However, the increase in nutrient-rich soft-leaved species was consistent with exclusion of large herbivores two decades before monitoring started; and CO2 fertilization could help explain the disproportionate increase in small stems. Reductions in populations of large vertebrates have been observed in many otherwise undisturbed tropical forests, and our results suggest they can have important structural and functional repercussions in these forests.

  3. Reasons for and challenges of recent increases in teen birth rates: a study of family planning service policies and demographic changes at the state level. (United States)

    Yang, Zhou; Gaydos, Laura M


    After declining for over a decade, the birth rate in the United States for adolescents aged 15-19 years increased by 3% in 2006 and 1% again in 2007. We examined demographic and policy reasons for this trend at state level. With data merged from multiple sources, descriptive analysis was used to detect state-level trends in birth rate and policy changes from 2000 to 2006, and variations in the distribution of teen birth rates, sex education, and family planning service policies, and demographic features across each state in 2006. Regression analysis was then conducted to estimate the effect of several reproductive health policies and demographic features on teen birth rates at the state level. Instrument variable was used to correct possible bias in the regression analysis. Medicaid family planning waivers were found to reduce teen birth rates across all ages and races. Abstinence-only education programs were found to cause an increase in teen birth rates among white and black teens. The increasing Hispanic population is another driving force for high teen birth rates. Both demographic factors and policy changes contributed to the increase in teen birth rates between 2000 and 2006. Future policy and behavioral interventions should focus on promoting and increasing access to contraceptive use. Family planning policies should be crafted to address the special needs of teens from different cultural backgrounds, especially Hispanics. Copyright 2010 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Integrated ocean management as a strategy to meet rapid climate change: the Norwegian case. (United States)

    Hoel, Alf Håkon; Olsen, Erik


    The prospects of rapid climate change and the potential existence of tipping points in marine ecosystems where nonlinear change may result from them being overstepped, raises the question of strategies for coping with ecosystem change. There is broad agreement that the combined forces of climate change, pollution and increasing economic activities necessitates more comprehensive approaches to oceans management, centering on the concept of ecosystem-based oceans management. This article addresses the Norwegian experience in introducing integrated, ecosystem-based oceans management, emphasizing how climate change, seen as a major long-term driver of change in ecosystems, is addressed in management plans. Understanding the direct effects of climate variability and change on ecosystems and indirect effects on human activities is essential for adaptive planning to be useful in the long-term management of the marine environment.

  5. Correlates of intimate partner violence against women during a time of rapid social transition in Rwanda: analysis of the 2005 and 2010 demographic and health surveys. (United States)

    Thomson, Dana R; Bah, Assiatou B; Rubanzana, Wilson G; Mutesa, Leon


    In Rwanda, women who self-reported in household surveys ever experiencing intimate partner violence (IPV) increased from 34 % in 2005 to 56 % in 2010. This coincided with a new constitution and majority-female elected parliament in 2003, and 2008 legislation protecting against gender-based violence. The increase in self-reported IPV may reflect improved social power for women, and/or disruptions to traditional gender roles that increased actual IPV. This is a cross-sectional study of IPV in 4338 couples interviewed in the 2005 and 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Surveys (RDHSs). Factors associated with physical or sexual IPV in the last 12 months were modeled using manual backward stepwise logistic regression. Analyses were conducted in Stata v13 adjusting for complex survey design. Risk factors for IPV in 2005 (p Rwanda's Isange One Stop Center project, with medical, legal, and psychosocial services for domestic violence victims, is currently scaling to all 44 district hospitals, and police station gender desks reduce barriers to legal reporting of IPV. Additional support to Abunzi mediators to hear IPV cases in communities, and involvement of men in grassroots efforts to redefine masculinity in Rwanda are suggested. Additional research is needed to understand why self-reported IPV has increased in Rwanda, and to evaluate effectiveness of IPV interventions.

  6. A bioinspired color-changing polystyrene microarray as a rapid qualitative sensor for methanol and ethanol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuo, Wen-Kai; Weng, Hsueh-Ping; Hsu, Jyun-Jheng; Yu, Hsin Her


    Polystyrene (PS) microspheres were synthesized by emulsifier-free emulsion polymerization and arranged in an array of closely packed, opal-like photonic crystals by slow self-assembly through dip-coating. This periodic array of PS microspheres was then employed as a rapid qualitative sensor for methanol and ethanol. Both solvents could be detected rapidly based on the routes of their reflection coordinates in the chromaticity diagram or directly by the naked eye on the basis of the change in color within 1 min once a solvent sample had been placed on the PS photochromic sensor. This opal-like PS sensor can thus not only be employed as a rapid sensor for methanol and ethanol but can also be used as a powerful tool for the fast screening of illicit drugs and toxic chemicals during forensic investigations. - Highlights: • Opal-like array of polystyrene (PS) microspheres is synthesized by self-assembly. • This periodic PS array is used as a rapid sensor for methanol and ethanol. • Solvents are detected by routes of reflection coordinates in chromaticity diagram. • They are also detected directly by naked eye based on change in color of sensor. • The color change is irreversible for methanol but reversible for ethanol.

  7. A bioinspired color-changing polystyrene microarray as a rapid qualitative sensor for methanol and ethanol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuo, Wen-Kai, E-mail: [Graduate Institute of Electro-Optical and Materials Science, National Formosa University, 64 Wenhua Road, Huwei, Yunlin 63208, Taiwan (China); Weng, Hsueh-Ping, E-mail: [Graduate Institute of Electro-Optical and Materials Science, National Formosa University, 64 Wenhua Road, Huwei, Yunlin 63208, Taiwan (China); Hsu, Jyun-Jheng, E-mail: [Graduate Institute of Electro-Optical and Materials Science, National Formosa University, 64 Wenhua Road, Huwei, Yunlin 63208, Taiwan (China); Yu, Hsin Her, E-mail: [Department of Biotechnology, National Formosa University, 64 Wenhua Road, Huwei, Yunlin 63208, Taiwan (China)


    Polystyrene (PS) microspheres were synthesized by emulsifier-free emulsion polymerization and arranged in an array of closely packed, opal-like photonic crystals by slow self-assembly through dip-coating. This periodic array of PS microspheres was then employed as a rapid qualitative sensor for methanol and ethanol. Both solvents could be detected rapidly based on the routes of their reflection coordinates in the chromaticity diagram or directly by the naked eye on the basis of the change in color within 1 min once a solvent sample had been placed on the PS photochromic sensor. This opal-like PS sensor can thus not only be employed as a rapid sensor for methanol and ethanol but can also be used as a powerful tool for the fast screening of illicit drugs and toxic chemicals during forensic investigations. - Highlights: • Opal-like array of polystyrene (PS) microspheres is synthesized by self-assembly. • This periodic PS array is used as a rapid sensor for methanol and ethanol. • Solvents are detected by routes of reflection coordinates in chromaticity diagram. • They are also detected directly by naked eye based on change in color of sensor. • The color change is irreversible for methanol but reversible for ethanol.

  8. Demographic change, economic conditions, and subsistence salmon harvests in Alaska’s Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim region


    Howe, E. Lance; Martin, Stephanie


    This paper addresses broad demographic and economic characteristics of the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim region (AYK) of Alaska. AYK human population growth has generally been moderate over time. Because out-migration regularly exceeds in-migration, especially in the villages, population growth is mainly a product of natality. We anticipate future population growth patterns will be similar. In terms of regional characteristics, the linguistically and geographically distinct populations of the AYK re...

  9. Rapid Hip Osteoarthritis Development in a Patient with Anterior Acetabular Cyst with Sagittal Alignment Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasuhiro Homma


    Full Text Available Rapidly destructive coxarthrosis (RDC is rare and develops unusual clinical course. Recent studies suggest multiple possible mechanisms of the development of RDC. However the exact mechanism of RDC is still not clear. The difficulty of the study on RDC is attributed to its rareness and the fact that the data before the onset of RDC is normally unavailable. In this report, we presented the patient having the radiographic data before the onset who had rapid osteoarthritis (OA development after contralateral THA, which meets the current criteria of RDC. We thought that the increased posterior tilt of the pelvis after THA reinforced the stress concentration at pre-existed anterior acetabular cyst, thereby the destruction of the cyst was occurred. As a result the rapid OA was developed. We think that there is the case of rapid osteoarthritis developing due to alternating load concentration by posterior pelvic tilt on preexisting anterior acetabular cyst such as our patient among the cases diagnosed as RDC without any identifiable etiology. The recognition of sagittal alignment changes and anterior acetabular cyst may play important role in prediction and prevention of the rapid hip osteoarthritis development similar to RDC.

  10. Rapid change of field line connectivity and reconnection in stochastic magnetic fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Yi-Min; Bhattacharjee, A.; Boozer, Allen H.


    Magnetic fields without a direction of continuous symmetry have the generic feature that neighboring field lines exponentiate away from each other and become stochastic, and hence the ideal constraint of preserving magnetic field line connectivity becomes exponentially sensitive to small deviations from ideal Ohm's law. The idea of breaking field line connectivity by stochasticity as a mechanism for fast reconnection is tested with numerical simulations based on reduced magnetohydrodynamics equations with a strong guide field line-tied to two perfectly conducting end plates. Starting from an ideally stable force-free equilibrium, the system is allowed to undergo resistive relaxation. Two distinct phases are found in the process of resistive relaxation. During the quasi-static phase, rapid change of field line connectivity and strong induced flow are found in regions of high field line exponentiation. However, although the field line connectivity of individual field lines can change rapidly, the overall pattern of field line mapping appears to deform gradually. From this perspective, field line exponentiation appears to cause enhanced diffusion rather than reconnection. In some cases, resistive quasi-static evolution can cause the ideally stable initial equilibrium to cross a stability threshold, leading to formation of intense current filaments and rapid change of field line mapping into a qualitatively different pattern. It is in this onset phase that the change of field line connectivity is more appropriately designated as magnetic reconnection. Our results show that rapid change of field line connectivity appears to be a necessary, but not a sufficient condition for fast reconnection.

  11. Integrating data from multiple sources for insights into demographic processes: Simulation studies and proof of concept for hierarchical change-in-ratio models. (United States)

    Nilsen, Erlend B; Strand, Olav


    We developed a model for estimating demographic rates and population abundance based on multiple data sets revealing information about population age- and sex structure. Such models have previously been described in the literature as change-in-ratio models, but we extend the applicability of the models by i) using time series data allowing the full temporal dynamics to be modelled, by ii) casting the model in an explicit hierarchical modelling framework, and by iii) estimating parameters based on Bayesian inference. Based on sensitivity analyses we conclude that the approach developed here is able to obtain estimates of demographic rate with high precision whenever unbiased data of population structure are available. Our simulations revealed that this was true also when data on population abundance are not available or not included in the modelling framework. Nevertheless, when data on population structure are biased due to different observability of different age- and sex categories this will affect estimates of all demographic rates. Estimates of population size is particularly sensitive to such biases, whereas demographic rates can be relatively precisely estimated even with biased observation data as long as the bias is not severe. We then use the models to estimate demographic rates and population abundance for two Norwegian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations where age-sex data were available for all harvested animals, and where population structure surveys were carried out in early summer (after calving) and late fall (after hunting season), and population size is counted in winter. We found that demographic rates were similar regardless whether we include population count data in the modelling, but that the estimated population size is affected by this decision. This suggest that monitoring programs that focus on population age- and sex structure will benefit from collecting additional data that allow estimation of observability for different age- and

  12. Effects of high latitude protected areas on bird communities under rapid climate change. (United States)

    Santangeli, Andrea; Rajasärkkä, Ari; Lehikoinen, Aleksi


    Anthropogenic climate change is rapidly becoming one of the main threats to biodiversity, along with other threats triggered by human-driven land-use change. Species are already responding to climate change by shifting their distributions polewards. This shift may create a spatial mismatch between dynamic species distributions and static protected areas (PAs). As protected areas represent one of the main pillars for preserving biodiversity today and in the future, it is important to assess their contribution in sheltering the biodiversity communities, they were designated to protect. A recent development to investigate climate-driven impacts on biological communities is represented by the community temperature index (CTI). CTI provides a measure of the relative temperature average of a community in a specific assemblage. CTI value will be higher for assemblages dominated by warm species compared with those dominated by cold-dwelling species. We here model changes in the CTI of Finnish bird assemblages, as well as changes in species densities, within and outside of PAs during the past four decades in a large boreal landscape under rapid change. We show that CTI has markedly increased over time across Finland, with this change being similar within and outside PAs and five to seven times slower than the temperature increase. Moreover, CTI has been constantly lower within than outside of PAs, and PAs still support communities, which show colder thermal index than those outside of PAs in the 1970s and 1980s. This result can be explained by the higher relative density of northern species within PAs than outside. Overall, our results provide some, albeit inconclusive, evidence that PAs may play a role in supporting the community of northern species. Results also suggest that communities are, however, shifting rapidly, both inside and outside of PAs, highlighting the need for adjusting conservation measures before it is too late. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. New type of Piezoresistive Pressure Sensors for Environments with Rapidly Changing Temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tykhan Myroslav


    Full Text Available The theoretical aspects of a new type of piezo-resistive pressure sensors for environments with rapidly changing temperatures are presented. The idea is that the sensor has two identical diaphragms which have different coefficients of linear thermal expansion. Therefore, when measuring pressure in environments with variable temperature, the diaphragms will have different deflection. This difference can be used to make appropriate correction of the sensor output signal and, thus, to increase accuracy of measurement. Since physical principles of sensors operation enable fast correction of the output signal, the sensor can be used in environments with rapidly changing temperature, which is its essential advantage. The paper presents practical implementation of the proposed theoretical aspects and the results of testing the developed sensor.

  14. Environmental impacts of rapid water level changes; Miljoekonsekvenser av raske vannstandsendringer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnekleiv, Jo Vegar; Bakken, Tor Haakon; Bogen, Jim; Boensnes, Truls Erik; Elster, Margrethe; Harby, Atle; Kutznetsova, Yulia; Saltveit, Svein Jakob; Sauterleute, Julian; Stickler, Morten; Sundt, Haakon; Tjomsland, Torulv; Ugedal, Ola


    This report summarizes the state of knowledge of the environmental impacts of power driving and rapid water level changes and describes possible mitigation measures. The report assesses the environmental effects of possible increased power installation in Mauranger and Tonstad power plants, based on existing data and knowledge. At Straumsmo plants in Barduelva there are collected some physical data and the environmental impact of existing power driving is considered. (eb)

  15. Observation of reversible, rapid changes in drug susceptibility of hypoxic tumor cells in a microfluidic device

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Germain, Todd; Ansari, Megan; Pappas, Dimitri, E-mail:


    Hypoxia is a major stimulus for increased drug resistance and for survival of tumor cells. Work from our group and others has shown that hypoxia increases resistance to anti-cancer compounds, radiation, and other damage-pathway cytotoxic agents. In this work we utilize a microfluidic culture system capable of rapid switching of local oxygen concentrations to determine changes in drug resistance in prostate cancer cells. We observed rapid adaptation to hypoxia, with drug resistance to 2 μM staurosporine established within 30 min of hypoxia. Annexin-V/Sytox Green apoptosis assays over 9 h showed 78.0% viability, compared to 84.5% viability in control cells (normoxic cells with no staurosporine). Normoxic cells exposed to the same staurosporine concentration had a viability of 48.6% after 9 h. Hypoxia adaptation was rapid and reversible, with Hypoxic cells treated with 20% oxygen for 30 min responding to staurosporine with 51.6% viability after drug treatment for 9 h. Induction of apoptosis through the receptor-mediated pathway, which bypasses anti-apoptosis mechanisms induced by hypoxia, resulted in 39.4 ± 7% cell viability. The rapid reversibility indicates co-treatment of oxygen with anti-cancer compounds may be a potential therapeutic target. - Highlights: • Microfluidic system switches rapidly between normoxia and hypoxia (5 min). • Observation of rapid adaptation of PC3 cells to hypoxia and normoxia (30 min). • Drug susceptibility in tumor cells restored after chip switched to normoxia for 30 min.

  16. Demographic expansion of two Tamarix species along the Yellow River caused by geological events and climate change in the Pleistocene. (United States)

    Liang, Hong-Yan; Feng, Zhi-Pei; Pei, Bing; Li, Yong; Yang, Xi-Tian


    The geological events and climatic fluctuations during the Pleistocene played important roles in shaping patterns of species distribution. However, few studies have evaluated the patterns of species distribution that were influenced by the Yellow River. The present work analyzed the demography of two endemic tree species that are widely distributed along the Yellow River, Tamarix austromongolica and Tamarix chinensis, to understand the role of the Yellow River and Pleistocene climate in shaping their distribution patterns. The most common chlorotype, chlorotype 1, was found in all populations, and its divergence time could be dated back to 0.19 million years ago (Ma). This dating coincides well with the formation of the modern Yellow River and the timing of Marine Isotope Stages 5e-6 (MIS 5e-6). Bayesian reconstructions along with models of paleodistribution revealed that these two species experienced a demographic expansion in population size during the Quaternary period. Approximate Bayesian computation analyses supported a scenario of expansion approximately from the upper to lower reaches of the Yellow River. Our results provide support for the roles of the Yellow River and the Pleistocene climate in driving demographic expansion of the populations of T. austromongolica and T. chinensis. These findings are useful for understanding the effects of geological events and past climatic fluctuations on species distribution patterns.


    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamada, S.; Makishima, K. [Cosmic Radiation Laboratory, Institute of Physical and Chemical Research (RIKEN), Wako, Saitama 351-0198 (Japan); Negoro, H. [Department of Physics, College of Science and Technology, Nihon University, 1-8 Kanda-Surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8308 (Japan); Torii, S.; Noda, H. [Department of Physics, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Mineshige, S. [Department of Astronomy, Kyoto University, Kitashirakawa Oiwake-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8502 (Japan)


    Rapid spectral changes in the hard X-ray on a timescale down to {approx}0.1 s are studied by applying a ''shot analysis'' technique to the Suzaku observations of the black hole binary Cygnus X-1, performed on 2008 April 18 during the low/hard state. We successfully obtained the shot profiles, covering 10-200 keV with the Suzaku HXD-PIN and HXD-GSO detector. It is notable that the 100-200 keV shot profile is acquired for the first time owing to the HXD-GSO detector. The intensity changes in a time-symmetric way, though the hardness changes in a time-asymmetric way. When the shot-phase-resolved spectra are quantified with the Compton model, the Compton y-parameter and the electron temperature are found to decrease gradually through the rising phase of the shot, while the optical depth appears to increase. All the parameters return to their time-averaged values immediately within 0.1 s past the shot peak. We have not only confirmed this feature previously found in energies below {approx}60 keV, but also found that the spectral change is more prominent in energies above {approx}100 keV, implying the existence of some instant mechanism for direct entropy production. We discuss possible interpretations of the rapid spectral changes in the hard X-ray band.

  18. Demographic development, climatic change, peak oil. Answers to spatial planning, urban planning and traffic planning; Demografische Entwicklung, Klimawandel, Peak Oil. Antworten der Raum-, Stadt- und Verkehrsplanung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huber, Felix


    The demographic trends, climate change and peak oil are highly sensitive issues politically. With fears about the future and the curiosity on the future attention can be aroused. Therefore, the author of the contribution under consideration reports on the following aspects: (1) Why should we deal with future challenges?; (2) Presentation of the tools of spatial planning, urban planning and transportation planning in the context of the particular requirements of their time; (3) Clarification of the requirements to future tools; (4) Presentation of the future tasks of spatial planning and the changes in lifestyle.

  19. [Developmental changes of rapid automatized naming and Hiragana reading of Japanese in elementary-school children]. (United States)

    Kobayashi, Tomoka; Inagaki, Masumi; Gunji, Atsuko; Yatabe, Kiyomi; Kita, Yosuke; Kaga, Makiko; Gotoh, Takaaki; Koike, Toshihide


    Two hundred and seven Japanese elementary school children aged from 6 (Grade 1) to 12 (Grade 6) years old were tested for their abilities to name numbers and pictured objects along with reading Hiragana characters and words. These children all showed typical development and their classroom teachers judged that they were not having any problems with reading or writing. The children were randomly divided into two groups, the first group was assigned to two naming tasks;the rapid automatized naming (RAN) of "numbers" and "pictured objects," the second group was assigned to two rapid alternative stimulus (RAS) naming tasks using numbers and pictured objects. All children were asked to perform two reading tasks that were written in Hiragana script: single mora reading task and four syllable word reading task. The total articulation time for naming and reading and performance in terms of accuracy were measured for each task. Developmental changes in these variables were evaluated. The articulation time was significantly longer for the first graders, and it gradually shortened as they moved through to the upper grades in all tasks. The articulation time reached a plateau in the 5th grade for the number naming, while gradual change continued after drastic change in the lower grades for the pictured object naming. The articulation times for the single mora reading and RAN of numbers correlated strongly. The articulation time for the RAS naming was significantly longer compared to that for the RAN, though there were very few errors. The RAS naming showed the highest correlation with the four syllable word reading. This study demonstrated that the performance in rapid automatized naming of numbers and pictures were closely related with performance on reading tasks. Thus Japanese children with reading disorders such as developmental dyslexia should also be evaluated for rapid automatized naming.

  20. Observation of reversible, rapid changes in drug susceptibility of hypoxic tumor cells in a microfluidic device. (United States)

    Germain, Todd; Ansari, Megan; Pappas, Dimitri


    Hypoxia is a major stimulus for increased drug resistance and for survival of tumor cells. Work from our group and others has shown that hypoxia increases resistance to anti-cancer compounds, radiation, and other damage-pathway cytotoxic agents. In this work we utilize a microfluidic culture system capable of rapid switching of local oxygen concentrations to determine changes in drug resistance in prostate cancer cells. We observed rapid adaptation to hypoxia, with drug resistance to 2 μM staurosporine established within 30 min of hypoxia. Annexin-V/Sytox Green apoptosis assays over 9 h showed 78.0% viability, compared to 84.5% viability in control cells (normoxic cells with no staurosporine). Normoxic cells exposed to the same staurosporine concentration had a viability of 48.6% after 9 h. Hypoxia adaptation was rapid and reversible, with Hypoxic cells treated with 20% oxygen for 30 min responding to staurosporine with 51.6% viability after drug treatment for 9 h. Induction of apoptosis through the receptor-mediated pathway, which bypasses anti-apoptosis mechanisms induced by hypoxia, resulted in 39.4 ± 7% cell viability. The rapid reversibility indicates co-treatment of oxygen with anti-cancer compounds may be a potential therapeutic target. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. A brief history of the changing occupations and demographics of coleopterists from the 18th through the 20th century. (United States)

    Elias, Scott A


    Systematic entomology flourished as a branch of Natural History from the 1750s to the end of the nineteenth century. During this interval, the "era of Heroic Entomology," the majority of workers in the field were dedicated amateurs. This article traces the demographic and occupational shifts in entomology through this 150-year interval and into the early twentieth century. The survey is based on entomologists who studied beetles (Coleoptera), and who named sufficient numbers of species to have their own names abbreviated by subsequent taxonomists. In the eighteenth century, 27 entomologists achieved this level of prominence, of whom 37% were academics, 19% were doctors, 11% had private incomes, 19% were clergymen, and 8% were government officials. Many of those with private incomes were members of the European aristocracy, and all but one were European men. The nineteenth century list included 192 entomologists, of whom 17% were academics, 16% were museum curators, 2% were school teachers, 15% were doctors, 6% were military men, 7% were merchants, 2% were government entomologists, 6% had private incomes, 5% were clergymen, 5% were government officials, and 4% were lawyers. The demographics of entomology shifted dramatically in the nineteenth century. Whereas many of the noteworthy entomologists of the eighteenth century were German, Swedish, or French, in the nineteenth century, many more European countries are represented, and almost one-fifth of the noteworthy entomologists were from the United States. The nineteenth century list, like the eighteenth century list, contains no women. By the twentieth century, 63% of 178 noteworthy systematic entomologists were paid professionals, teaching entomology courses in universities, or studying insect taxonomy in museums and government-sponsored laboratories. Only one person on the twentieth century list had a private income, but women (ten individuals) were included on the list for the first time.

  2. Demographic change in the Arab world: the impact of migration, education and taxes in Egypt and Morocco. (United States)

    Courbage, Y


    The populations of Egypt and Morocco have grown since the beginning of the century from approximately 10 to 57 million and less than 5 to 25.5 million, respectively. Egypt and Morocco are two of the most populous Arab countries. After a long period of demographic growth, they adopted less pronatalist legislation and implemented family planning programs starting in the 1960s. Egypt's rate of total fertility (TFR) at that time was 6.7 children per woman, lower than most of the Arab world and lower than Morocco's 7.2. Egypt's fertility since then, however, has remained at 5-6, only dropping below 5 in 1989. TFR in Morocco increased to 7.4 in 1973, declined to 5.9 over the period 1973-77, and fell below 4 in 1989. The author questions why the goals of fertility control programs have not been reached in Egypt, yet have been surpassed in Morocco. Available data on contraceptive prevalence and breastfeeding practices would predict the opposite to be the case. 35.9% used birth control methods in Morocco in 1987 and 37.8% in Egypt in 1988. 6.9%, however, used less effective traditional methods in Morocco compared to only 2.4% who used such methods in Egypt. Egyptian women breastfeed their babies for 17.3 months compared to 14.4 months among Moroccan women, while between the ages 20-24, 60% of Egyptian women are married compared to 45% of women in Morocco. Moroccan and Egyptian families resist traditional explanations of demographic transition. It is concluded that although educational status affects fertility in the Maghrib and Mashriq, greater female labor force participation, state-citizen fiscal relations, and foreign migration play major determining roles.

  3. Evolution under changing climates: climatic niche stasis despite rapid evolution in a non-native plant. (United States)

    Alexander, Jake M


    A topic of great current interest is the capacity of populations to adapt genetically to rapidly changing climates, for example by evolving the timing of life-history events, but this is challenging to address experimentally. I use a plant invasion as a model system to tackle this question by combining molecular markers, a common garden experiment and climatic niche modelling. This approach reveals that non-native Lactuca serriola originates primarily from Europe, a climatic subset of its native range, with low rates of admixture from Asia. It has rapidly refilled its climatic niche in the new range, associated with the evolution of flowering phenology to produce clines along climate gradients that mirror those across the native range. Consequently, some non-native plants have evolved development times and grow under climates more extreme than those found in Europe, but not among populations from the native range as a whole. This suggests that many plant populations can adapt rapidly to changed climatic conditions that are already within the climatic niche space occupied by the species elsewhere in its range, but that evolution to conditions outside of this range is more difficult. These findings can also help to explain the prevalence of niche conservatism among non-native species.

  4. More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance. (United States)

    Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries


    Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change.


    The effect of changes in landscape factors on socioeconomics was analyzedlocally and regionally. The method presented here allows mapping changes in vegetation covertrends over large areas quickly and inexpensively, thus providing policy-makers with a technical

  6. Rapid area change in pitch-up manoeuvres of small perching birds. (United States)

    Polet, D T; Rival, D E


    Rapid pitch-up has been highlighted as a mechanism to generate large lift and drag during landing manoeuvres. However, pitching rates had not been measured previously in perching birds, and so the direct applicability of computations and experiments to observed behaviour was not known. We measure pitch rates in a small, wild bird (the black-capped chickadee; Poecile atricapillus), and show that these rates are within the parameter range used in experiments. Pitching rates were characterized by the shape change number, a metric comparing the rate of frontal area increase to acceleration. Black-capped chickadees increase the shape change number during perching in direct proportion to their total kinetic and potential energy at the start of the manoeuvre. The linear relationship between dissipated energy and shape change number is in accordance with a simple analytical model developed for two-dimensional pitching and decelerating airfoils. Black-capped chickadees use a wing pitch-up manoeuvre during perching to dissipate energy quickly while maintaining lift and drag through rapid area change. It is suggested that similar pitch-and-decelerate manoeuvres could be used to aid in the controlled, precise landings of small manoeuvrable air vehicles.

  7. Tracking and unpacking rapid Arctic change: Indicators of community health and sustainability in northern Alaska and links to cryospheric change (United States)

    Eicken, H.; Sam, J. M.; Mueller-stoffels, M.; Lovecraft, A. L.; Fresco, N. L.


    Tracking and responding to rapid Arctic change benefits from time series of indicator variables that describe the state of the system and can inform anticipatory action. A key challenge is to identify and monitor sets of indicators that capture relevant variability, trends, and transitions in social-environmental systems. We present findings from participatory scenarios focused on community health and sustainability in northern Alaska. In a series of workshops in 2015 and 2016 (Kotzebue workshop photo shown below), over 50 experts, mostly local, identified determinants of community health and sustainability by 2040 in the Northwest Arctic and North Slope Boroughs, Alaska. Drawing on further research, an initial set of factors and uncertainties was refined and prioritized into a total of 20 key drivers, ranging from governance issues to socio-economic and environmental factors. The research team then developed sets of future projections that describe plausible outcomes by mid-century for each of these drivers. A plausibility and consistency analysis of all pairwise combinations of these projections (following Mueller-Stoffels and Eicken, In: North by 2020 - Perspectives on Alaska's Changing Social-Ecological Systems, University of Alaska Press, 2011) resulted in the identification of robust scenarios. The latter were further reviewed by workshop participants, and a set of indicator variables, including indicators of relevant cryospheric change, was identified to help track trajectories towards plausible future states. Publically accessible recorded data only exist for a subset of the more than 70 indicators, reaching back a few years to several decades. For several indicators, the sampling rate or time series length are insufficient for tracking of and response to change. A core set of variables has been identified that meets indicator requirements and can serve as a tool for Alaska Arctic communities in adapting to or mitigating rapid change affecting community

  8. Rapidly reversible redox transformation in nanophase manganese oxides at room temperature triggered by changes in hydration. (United States)

    Birkner, Nancy; Navrotsky, Alexandra


    Chemisorption of water onto anhydrous nanophase manganese oxide surfaces promotes rapidly reversible redox phase changes as confirmed by calorimetry, X-ray diffraction, and titration for manganese average oxidation state. Surface reduction of bixbyite (Mn2O3) to hausmannite (Mn3O4) occurs in nanoparticles under conditions where no such reactions are seen or expected on grounds of bulk thermodynamics in coarse-grained materials. Additionally, transformation does not occur on nanosurfaces passivated by at least 2% coverage of what is likely an amorphous manganese oxide layer. The transformation is due to thermodynamic control arising from differences in surface energies of the two phases (Mn2O3 and Mn3O4) under wet and dry conditions. Such reversible and rapid transformation near room temperature may affect the behavior of manganese oxides in technological applications and in geologic and environmental settings.

  9. Rapid changes in gene expression direct rapid shifts in intestinal form and function in the Burmese python after feeding


    Andrew, Audra L.; Card, Daren C.; Ruggiero, Robert P.; Schield, Drew R.; Adams, Richard H.; Pollock, David D.; Secor, Stephen M.; Castoe, Todd A.


    Snakes provide a unique and valuable model system for studying the extremes of physiological remodeling because of the ability of some species to rapidly upregulate organ form and function upon feeding. The predominant model species used to study such extreme responses has been the Burmese python because of the extreme nature of postfeeding response in this species. We analyzed the Burmese python intestine across a time series, before, during, and after feeding to understand the patterns and ...

  10. Selected physical, biological and biogeochemical implications of a rapidly changing Arctic Marginal Ice Zone (United States)

    Barber, David G.; Hop, Haakon; Mundy, Christopher J.; Else, Brent; Dmitrenko, Igor A.; Tremblay, Jean-Eric; Ehn, Jens K.; Assmy, Philipp; Daase, Malin; Candlish, Lauren M.; Rysgaard, Søren


    The Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) of the Arctic Ocean is changing rapidly due to a warming Arctic climate with commensurate reductions in sea ice extent and thickness. This Pan-Arctic review summarizes the main changes in the Arctic ocean-sea ice-atmosphere (OSA) interface, with implications for primary- and secondary producers in the ice and the underlying water column. Changes in the Arctic MIZ were interpreted for the period 1979-2010, based on best-fit regressions for each month. Trends of increasingly open water were statistically significant for each month, with quadratic fit for August-November, illustrating particularly strong seasonal feedbacks in sea-ice formation and decay. Geographic interpretations of physical and biological changes were based on comparison of regions with significant changes in sea ice: (1) The Pacific Sector of the Arctic Ocean including the Canada Basin and the Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian seas; (2) The Canadian Arctic Archipelago; (3) Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay; and (4) the Barents and Kara seas. Changes in ice conditions in the Barents sea/Kara sea region appear to be primarily forced by ocean heat fluxes during winter, whereas changes in the other sectors appear to be more summer-autumn related and primarily atmospherically forced. Effects of seasonal and regional changes in OSA-system with regard to increased open water were summarized for photosynthetically available radiation, nutrient delivery to the euphotic zone, primary production of ice algae and phytoplankton, ice-associated fauna and zooplankton, and gas exchange of CO2. Changes in the physical factors varied amongst regions, and showed direct effects on organisms linked to sea ice. Zooplankton species appear to be more flexible and likely able to adapt to variability in the onset of primary production. The major changes identified for the ice-associated ecosystem are with regard to production timing and abundance or biomass of ice flora and fauna, which are related to

  11. Prey change behaviour with predation threat, but demographic effects vary with prey density: experiments with grasshoppers and birds. (United States)

    Belovsky, Gary E; Laws, Angela Nardoni; Slade, Jennifer B


    Increasingly, ecologists emphasize that prey frequently change behaviour in the presence of predators and these behavioural changes can reduce prey survival and reproduction as much or more than predation itself. However, the effects of behavioural changes on survival and reproduction may vary with prey density due to intraspecific competition. In field experiments, we varied grasshopper density and threat of avian predation and measured grasshopper behaviour, survival and reproduction. Grasshopper behaviour changed with the threat of predation and these behavioural changes were invariant with grasshopper density. Behavioural changes with the threat of predation decreased per capita reproduction over all grasshopper densities; whereas the behavioural changes increased survival at low grasshopper densities and then decreased survival at high densities. At low grasshopper densities, the total reproductive output of the grasshopper population remained unchanged with predation threat, but declined at higher densities. The effects of behavioural changes with predation threat varied with grasshopper density because of a trade-off between survival and reproduction as intraspecific competition increased with density. Therefore, resource availability may need to be considered when assessing how prey behavioural changes with predation threat affect population and food web dynamics. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  12. Specific changes in rapidly transported proteins during regeneration of the goldfish optic nerve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benowitz, L.I.; Shashoua, V.E.; Yoon, M.G.


    Double labeling methods were used to identify changes in the complement of proteins synthesized in the retinal ganglion cells and transported down the optic nerve during the process of axonal regeneration. Eight to 62 days after goldfish underwent a unilateral optic nerve crush, one eye was labeled with [3H]-, the other with [14C]proline. Control and regenerating optic nerves were dissected out and homogenized together after 5 hr, a time which allowed us to examine selectively membrane-bound components which migrate in the rapid phase of axoplasmic transport. Proteins from the two sides were so-purified and separated by sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Analysis of the 3H and 14C incorporation patterns along the gels revealed a radical shift away from the normal labeling spectrum during regeneration, with selective changes in labeling at particular molecular weights varying over a 3-fold range. Eight days after crushing the optic nerve, the greatest increases in labeling were seen for material with apparent molecular weights of 24,000 to 27,000, 44,000, and 210,000 daltons. These peaks declined thereafter, and on days 29 to 39, the most prominent increases were at 110,000 to 140,000 daltons. These studies indicate a continuously changing pattern in the synthesis and/or degradation of proteins that are rapidly transported down the optic nerve during regeneration and point to molecular species potential significance in the establishment of the visual map upon the brain

  13. Modulators of mercury risk to wildlife and humans in the context of rapid global change (United States)

    Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Silbergeld, Ellen K.; Basu, Niladri; Bustamante, Paco; Diaz-Barriga, Fernando; Hopkins, William A.; Kidd, Karen A.; Nyland, Jennifer F.


    Environmental mercury (Hg) contamination is an urgent global health threat. The complexity of Hg in the environment can hinder accurate determination of ecological and human health risks, particularly within the context of the rapid global changes that are altering many ecological processes, socioeconomic patterns, and other factors like infectious disease incidence, which can affect Hg exposures and health outcomes. However, the success of global Hg-reduction efforts depends on accurate assessments of their effectiveness in reducing health risks. In this paper, we examine the role that key extrinsic and intrinsic drivers play on several aspects of Hg risk to humans and organisms in the environment. We do so within three key domains of ecological and human health risk. First, we examine how extrinsic global change drivers influence pathways of Hg bioaccumulation and biomagnification through food webs. Next, we describe how extrinsic socioeconomic drivers at a global scale, and intrinsic individual-level drivers, influence human Hg exposure. Finally, we address how the adverse health effects of Hg in humans and wildlife are modulated by a range of extrinsic and intrinsic drivers within the context of rapid global change. Incorporating components of these three domains into research and monitoring will facilitate a more holistic understanding of how ecological and societal drivers interact to influence Hg health risks.

  14. Neurogenomics and the role of a large mutational target on rapid behavioral change. (United States)

    Stanley, Craig E; Kulathinal, Rob J


    Behavior, while complex and dynamic, is among the most diverse, derived, and rapidly evolving traits in animals. The highly labile nature of heritable behavioral change is observed in such evolutionary phenomena as the emergence of converged behaviors in domesticated animals, the rapid evolution of preferences, and the routine development of ethological isolation between diverging populations and species. In fact, it is believed that nervous system development and its potential to evolve a seemingly infinite array of behavioral innovations played a major role in the successful diversification of metazoans, including our own human lineage. However, unlike other rapidly evolving functional systems such as sperm-egg interactions and immune defense, the genetic basis of rapid behavioral change remains elusive. Here we propose that the rapid divergence and widespread novelty of innate and adaptive behavior is primarily a function of its genomic architecture. Specifically, we hypothesize that the broad diversity of behavioral phenotypes present at micro- and macroevolutionary scales is promoted by a disproportionately large mutational target of neurogenic genes. We present evidence that these large neuro-behavioral targets are significant and ubiquitous in animal genomes and suggest that behavior's novelty and rapid emergence are driven by a number of factors including more selection on a larger pool of variants, a greater role of phenotypic plasticity, and/or unique molecular features present in large genes. We briefly discuss the origins of these large neurogenic genes, as they relate to the remarkable diversity of metazoan behaviors, and highlight key consequences on both behavioral traits and neurogenic disease across, respectively, evolutionary and ontogenetic time scales. Current approaches to studying the genetic mechanisms underlying rapid phenotypic change primarily focus on identifying signatures of Darwinian selection in protein-coding regions. In contrast

  15. Demographic structure and macroeconomic trends


    Aksoy, Yunus; Basso, H.S.; Smith, Ronald; Grasl, Tobias


    We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long term\\ud trends of key macroeconomic variables using a Panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970-2014. The panel data variation assists the identification of demographic effects, while the dynamic structure,\\ud incorporating multiple channels of influence, uncovers long-term effects.\\ud We propose a theoretical model, relating demographics, innovation and\\ud growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current\\ud...

  16. Experiences of Families Transmitting Values in a Rapidly Changing Society: Implications for Family Therapists. (United States)

    Akyil, Yudum; Prouty, Anne; Blanchard, Amy; Lyness, Kevin


    Intergenerational value transmission affects parent-child relationships and necessitates constant negotiation in families. Families with adolescents from rapidly changing societies face unique challenges in balancing the traditional collectivistic family values that promote harmony with emerging values that promote autonomy. Using modern Turkey as an example of such a culture, the authors examine the transmission process in families that hold more traditional and collectivistic values than their adolescent children. Special consideration is given to generational and cultural differences in the autonomy and relatedness dimensions. © 2015 Family Process Institute.

  17. Wiki management a revolutionary new model for a rapidly changing and collaborative world

    CERN Document Server

    Collins, Rod


    We now live in a "wiki" world where mass collaboration is not only possible-it's often the best solution. Conventional management thought assumes that command-and-control is the most effective way to organize the efforts of large numbers of people, but rapid change and increasing complexity have rendered that model obsolete. As a result, most managers today lack the skills and knowledge needed to succeed in an age when networks are proving smarter and faster than hierarchies. Designing organizations for mass collaboration demands a new and very different model-wiki management.

  18. Demographic and Subsistence Change in a Complex Fisher-Forager Village: Evidence from Housepit 54, Bridge River Site, British Columbia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prentiss, Anne Marie; Walsh, Matthew


    Paper presented in the symposium “Understanding Change in Prehistoric Demography and Subsistence” at World Archaeological Congress 8, Kyoto, Japan.......Paper presented in the symposium “Understanding Change in Prehistoric Demography and Subsistence” at World Archaeological Congress 8, Kyoto, Japan....

  19. Tropical vegetation evidence for rapid sea level changes associated with Heinrich Events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez, Catalina; Dupont, Lydie M, E-mail: catalina@uni-bremen.d, E-mail: dupont@uni-bremen.d [MARUM - Centre for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Leobener Strasse, D-28359 Germany (Germany)


    A Cariaco Basin pollen record shows the development of tropical salt marshes during marine isotope stage 3. Rapid and abrupt expansions of salt marsh vegetation in tropical South America are associated with north Atlantic Heinrich Events stadials (HE-stadials). Intervals of salt marsh expansion have an internal structure, which consists of a recurrent alternation of species that starts with pollen increments of Chenopodiaceae, that are followed by increments of grasses, and subsequently by increments of Cyperaceae. This pattern suggests a successional process that is determined by the close relationship between sea-level and plant community dynamics. The salt tolerant Chenopodiaceae, indicate hypersaline intertidal environments, which were most likely promoted by extremely dry atmospheric conditions. Rapid sea-level rise characterizes the onset of HE-stadials, causing the continued recruitment of pioneer species, which are the only ones tolerating rapid rates of disturbance. Once sea-level rise decelerates, marsh plants are able to trap and stabilize sediments, favouring the establishment of more competitive species. These results add to the scarce knowledge on the dynamics of tropical salt marsh ecosystems, and provide independent paleoclimatic evidence on sea-level changes following Antarctic climate variability.

  20. Rapid gene expression changes in peripheral blood lymphocytes upon practice of a comprehensive yoga program.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Su Qu

    Full Text Available One of the most common integrative medicine (IM modalities is yoga and related practices. Previous work has shown that yoga may improve wellness in healthy people and have benefits for patients. However, the mechanisms of how yoga may positively affect the mind-body system are largely unknown. Here we have assessed possible rapid changes in global gene expression profiles in the peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs in healthy people that practiced either a comprehensive yoga program or a control regimen. The experimental sessions included gentle yoga postures, breathing exercises, and meditation (Sudarshan Kriya and Related Practices--SK&P compared with a control regimen of a nature walk and listening to relaxing music. We show that the SK&P program has a rapid and significantly greater effect on gene expression in PBMCs compared with the control regimen. These data suggest that yoga and related practices result in rapid gene expression alterations which may be the basis for their longer term cell biological and higher level health effects.

  1. Changes in food habits after migration among South Asians settled in Oslo: the effect of demographic, socio-economic and integration factors. (United States)

    Wandel, Margareta; Råberg, Marte; Kumar, Bernadette; Holmboe-Ottesen, Gerd


    The aim is to explore changes in food habits after migration, and the resultant present food consumption patterns, as well as the effect of demographic, socio-economic and integration factors on these changes. Analyses were based on data collected through the Oslo Immigrant Health study, from 629 persons 30-60 years of age, born in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and living in Oslo, Norway. A majority of the Sri Lankans reported increase in the consumption of meat, milk, butter, margarine and potatoes. Around half of those from Pakistan reported increased consumption of oil, meat, fish and potatoes. Both groups reported a decrease in bean and lentil consumption. Multivariate regression showed that age was negatively related to increases in butter and margarine consumption, and a good command of the Norwegian language reduced the likelihood of increased consumption of oil and butter. The likelihood of having present fat and sugar rich food patterns were reduced with age and years of education, whereas scoring high on an index of integration increased the likelihood of a fat rich food pattern. In conclusion, a number of demographic and socio-cultural factors may modify the changes in food habits after migration. Some of these may have substantial health implications.

  2. The changing demographics of total joint arthroplasty recipients in the United States and Ontario from 2001 to 2007. (United States)

    Ravi, Bheeshma; Croxford, Ruth; Reichmann, William M; Losina, Elena; Katz, Jeffrey N; Hawker, Gillian A


    The rates of total joint arthroplasty (TJA) of the hip and knee have increased in North America over the last decade. While initially designed for elderly patients (>70 years of age), several reports suggest that an increasing number of younger patients are undergoing joint replacements. This suggests that more people are meeting the indication for TJA earlier in their lives. Alternatively, it might indicate a broadening of the indications for TJA. We used the administrative databases available at the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) and the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (ICES) to determine the rates of TJA of the hip and knee in the United States, and Ontario, Canada, respectively. We determined the crude rates of THA and TKA in both areas for four calendar years (2001, 2003, 2005 and 2007). We also calculated the age- and sex-standardised rates of THA and TKA in both areas for each time period. We compared the age distribution of TJA recipients between the US and Ontario, and within each area over time. The crude and standardised rates of THA and TKA increased over time in both the US and Ontario. The crude rates of THA were higher in the US in 2001 and 2003, but were not significantly different from the rate in Ontario in 2005 and 2007. The crude rates of TKA were consistently higher in the US for all time periods. In addition, the US consistently had more THA and TKA recipients in 'younger' age categories (age). While the age- and sex-standardised rates of TKA were greater in the US in all time periods, the relative increase in rates from 2001 to 2007 was greater in Ontario (US - 59%, Ontario - 73%). For both the US and Ontario, there was a significant shift in the demographic of THA and TKA recipients to younger patients (p age groups in the general population, in both the US and Ontario. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Demographic changes following mechanical removal of exotic brown trout in an Intermountain West (USA), high-elevation stream (United States)

    Saunders, W. Carl; Budy, Phaedra E.; Thiede, Gary P.


    Exotic species present a great threat to native fish conservation; however, eradicating exotics is expensive and often impractical. Mechanical removal can be ineffective for eradication, but nonetheless may increase management effectiveness by identifying portions of a watershed that are strong sources of exotics. We used mechanical removal to understand processes driving exotic brown trout (Salmo trutta) populations in the Logan River, Utah. Our goals were to: (i) evaluate the demographic response of brown trout to mechanical removal, (ii) identify sources of brown trout recruitment at a watershed scale and (iii) evaluate whether mechanical removal can reduce brown trout densities. We removed brown trout from 2 km of the Logan River (4174 fish), and 5.6 km of Right Hand Fork (RHF, 15,245 fish), a low-elevation tributary, using single-pass electrofishing. We compared fish abundance and size distributions prior to, and after 2 years of mechanical removal. In the Logan River, immigration to the removal reach and high natural variability in fish abundances limited the response to mechanical removal. In contrast, mechanical removal in RHF resulted in a strong recruitment pulse, shifting the size distribution towards smaller fish. These results suggest that, before removal, density-dependent mortality or emigration of juvenile fish stabilised adult populations and may have provided a source of juveniles to the main stem. Overall, in sites demonstrating strong density-dependent population regulation, or near sources of exotics, short-term mechanical removal has limited effects on brown trout populations but may help identify factors governing populations and inform large-scale management of exotic species.

  4. Changing Demographics and Injury Profile of New Traumatic Spinal Cord Injuries in the United States, 1972-2014. (United States)

    Chen, Yuying; He, Yin; DeVivo, Michael J


    To document trends in the demographic and injury profile of new spinal cord injury (SCI) over time. Cross-sectional analysis of longitudinal data by injury years (1972-1979, 1980-1989, 1990-1999, 2000-2009, 2010-2014). Twenty-eight Spinal Cord Injury Model Systems centers throughout the United States. Persons with traumatic SCI (N=30,881) enrolled in the National Spinal Cord Injury Database. Not applicable. Age, sex, race, education level, employment, marital status, etiology, and severity of injury. Age at injury has increased from 28.7 years in the 1970s to 42.2 years during 2010 to 2014. This aging phenomenon was noted for both sexes, all races, and all etiologies except acts of violence. The percentage of racial minorities expanded continuously over the last 5 decades. Virtually among all age groups, the average education levels and percentage of single/never married status have increased, which is similar to the trends noted in the general population. Although vehicular crashes continue to be the leading cause of SCI overall, the percentage has declined from 47.0% in the 1970s to 38.1% during 2010 to 2014. Injuries caused by falls have increased over time, particularly among those aged ≥46 years. Progressive increases in the percentages of high cervical and motor incomplete injuries were noted for various age, sex, race, and etiology groups. Study findings call for geriatrics expertise and intercultural competency of the clinical team in the acute and rehabilitation care for SCI. This study also highlights the need for a multidimensional risk assessment and multifactorial intervention, especially to reduce falls and SCI in older adults. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Rapid response of a marine mammal species to holocene climate and habitat change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark de Bruyn


    Full Text Available Environmental change drives demographic and evolutionary processes that determine diversity within and among species. Tracking these processes during periods of change reveals mechanisms for the establishment of populations and provides predictive data on response to potential future impacts, including those caused by anthropogenic climate change. Here we show how a highly mobile marine species responded to the gain and loss of new breeding habitat. Southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, remains were found along the Victoria Land Coast (VLC in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, 2,500 km from the nearest extant breeding site on Macquarie Island (MQ. This habitat was released after retreat of the grounded ice sheet in the Ross Sea Embayment 7,500-8,000 cal YBP, and is within the range of modern foraging excursions from the MQ colony. Using ancient mtDNA and coalescent models, we tracked the population dynamics of the now extinct VLC colony and the connectivity between this and extant breeding sites. We found a clear expansion signal in the VLC population approximately 8,000 YBP, followed by directional migration away from VLC and the loss of diversity at approximately 1,000 YBP, when sea ice is thought to have expanded. Our data suggest that VLC seals came initially from MQ and that some returned there once the VLC habitat was lost, approximately 7,000 years later. We track the founder-extinction dynamics of a population from inception to extinction in the context of Holocene climate change and present evidence that an unexpectedly diverse, differentiated breeding population was founded from a distant source population soon after habitat became available.

  6. Rapid response of a marine mammal species to holocene climate and habitat change. (United States)

    de Bruyn, Mark; Hall, Brenda L; Chauke, Lucas F; Baroni, Carlo; Koch, Paul L; Hoelzel, A Rus


    Environmental change drives demographic and evolutionary processes that determine diversity within and among species. Tracking these processes during periods of change reveals mechanisms for the establishment of populations and provides predictive data on response to potential future impacts, including those caused by anthropogenic climate change. Here we show how a highly mobile marine species responded to the gain and loss of new breeding habitat. Southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, remains were found along the Victoria Land Coast (VLC) in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, 2,500 km from the nearest extant breeding site on Macquarie Island (MQ). This habitat was released after retreat of the grounded ice sheet in the Ross Sea Embayment 7,500-8,000 cal YBP, and is within the range of modern foraging excursions from the MQ colony. Using ancient mtDNA and coalescent models, we tracked the population dynamics of the now extinct VLC colony and the connectivity between this and extant breeding sites. We found a clear expansion signal in the VLC population approximately 8,000 YBP, followed by directional migration away from VLC and the loss of diversity at approximately 1,000 YBP, when sea ice is thought to have expanded. Our data suggest that VLC seals came initially from MQ and that some returned there once the VLC habitat was lost, approximately 7,000 years later. We track the founder-extinction dynamics of a population from inception to extinction in the context of Holocene climate change and present evidence that an unexpectedly diverse, differentiated breeding population was founded from a distant source population soon after habitat became available.

  7. Spatial pattern and scale influence invader demographic response to simulated precipitation change in an annual grassland community (United States)

    It is important to predict which invasive species will benefit from future changes in climate, and thereby identify those invaders that need particular attention and prioritization of management efforts. Because establishment, persistence, and spread determine invasion success, this prediction requ...

  8. Rapid changes in protein phosphorylation associated with gravity perception in corn roots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McFadden, J.J.; Poovaiah, B.W.


    A previous paper from this laboratory showed calcium- and calmodulin-dependent in vivo protein phosphorylation in corn root tips. The authors show that rapid changes in calcium-dependent protein phosphorylation are involved in light-dependent graviperception in corn root tips. Corn seedlings (Zea mays L, cv Merit) were grown in the dark for 3 d, then apical root segments were harvested in dim green light to measure in vivo protein phosphorylation. Segments were incubated with 0.5 mCi 32 P for 1 h, then immediately frozen in liquid N 2 or first treated with either 7 min light, or 7 min light plus 1 mM EGTA and 10 μM A23187. Labeled proteins were separated by 2D gel electrophoresis and detected by autoradiography. Light caused rapid and specific promotion of phosphorylation of 5 polypeptides. The increases in protein phosphorylation were reversed by treating with EGTA and A23187. The authors postulate that these changes in protein phosphorylation are an essential part of the light-dependent gravity response in Merit roots

  9. Health Systems Research in a Complex and Rapidly Changing Context: Ethical Implications of Major Health Systems Change at Scale. (United States)

    MacGregor, Hayley; Bloom, Gerald


    This paper discusses health policy and systems research in complex and rapidly changing contexts. It focuses on ethical issues at stake for researchers working with government policy makers to provide evidence to inform major health systems change at scale, particularly when the dynamic nature of the context and ongoing challenges to the health system can result in unpredictable outcomes. We focus on situations where 'country ownership' of HSR is relatively well established and where there is significant involvement of local researchers and close ties and relationships with policy makers are often present. We frame our discussion around two country case studies with which we are familiar, namely China and South Africa and discuss the implications for conducting 'embedded' research. We suggest that reflexivity is an important concept for health system researchers who need to think carefully about positionality and their normative stance and to use such reflection to ensure that they can negotiate to retain autonomy, whilst also contributing evidence for health system change. A research process informed by the notion of reflexive practice and iterative learning will require a longitudinal review at key points in the research timeline. Such review should include the convening of a deliberative process and should involve a range of stakeholders, including those most likely to be affected by the intended and unintended consequences of change. © 2016 The Authors Developing World Bioethics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Demographic Trends: Impact on Schools (United States)

    Chong, Sylvia N. Y.; Cheah, Horn Mun


    Background: Singapore is experiencing great demographic change. These demographic trends show fewer young people and declining birth rates, greater longevity for ageing generations and an increase in the number of non-Singaporean residents. Statistics also show that more than half of the total population increase in the last decades was…

  11. Effects of geological changes and climatic fluctuations on the demographic histories and low genetic diversity of Squaliobarbus curriculus in Yellow River. (United States)

    Zhou, Wei; Song, Na; Wang, Jun; Gao, Tianxiang


    The 104 samples of Squaliobarbus curriculus were collected from four localities in Yellow River and one region in Yangtze River. Analyses of the first hypervariable region of mitochondrial DNA control region of 555bp revealed only 15 polymorphism sites and defined 19 haplotypes. Low-to-moderate levels of haplotype diversity and low nucleotide diversity were observed in Yellow River populations (h=0.2529-0.7510, π=0.0712%-0.2197%). In contrast, Poyang Lake population showed high haplotype diversity and lower-middle nucleotide diversity (h=0.9636, π=0.5317%). Low genetic differentiation was estimated among Yellow River populations and significant level of genetic structure was detected between two rivers. Population genetic structure between two rivers was believed to be connected with geographical barriers and paleoclimatic events. The demographic history of S. curriculus in Yellow River examined by neutrality tests, mismatch distribution analysis, and Bayesian skyline analysis suggested a sudden and spatial population expansion dating to the Holocene. Climatic warming and changes of Yellow River course may have important effects on demographic facet of S. curriculus history. The same signal was also obtained on Poyang Lake population in late Pleistocene during the last interglacial period. During the period, the pronounced climatic change and the water system variation of PYL may have an important influence on the population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Demographic consequences of increased winter births in a large aseasonally breeding mammal (Bos taurus) in response to climate change. (United States)

    Burthe, Sarah; Butler, Adam; Searle, Kate R; Hall, Stephen J G; Thackeray, Stephen J; Wanless, Sarah


    1. Studies examining changes in the scheduling of breeding in response to climate change have focused on species with well-defined breeding seasons. Species exhibiting year-round breeding have received little attention and the magnitudes of any responses are unknown. 2. We investigated phenological data for an enclosed feral population of cattle (Bos taurus L.) in northern England exhibiting year-round breeding. This population is relatively free of human interference. 3. We assessed whether the timing of births had changed over the last 60 years, in response to increasing winter and spring temperatures, changes in herd density, and a regime of lime fertilisation. 4. Median birth date became earlier by 1·0 days per year. Analyses of the seasonal distribution of calving dates showed that significantly fewer calves were born in summer (decline from 44% of total births to 20%) and significantly more in winter (increase from 12% to 30%) over the study period. The most pronounced changes occurred in winter, with significant increases in both the proportion and number of births. Winter births arise from conceptions in the previous spring, and we considered models that investigated climate and weather variables associated with the winter preceding and the spring of conceptions. 5. The proportion of winter births was higher when the onset of the plant growing season was earlier during the spring of conceptions. This relationship was much weaker during years when the site had been fertilised with lime, suggesting that increased forage biomass was over-riding the impacts of changing plant phenology. When the onset of the growing season was late, winter births increased with female density. 6. Recruitment estimates from a stage-structured state-space population model were significantly negatively correlated with the proportion of births in the preceding winter, suggesting that calves born in winter are less likely to survive than those born in other seasons. 7.

  13. Rapidly Assessing Changes in Bone Mineral Balance Using Natural Stable Calcium Isotopes (United States)

    Morgan, J. L. L.; Gordon, G. W.; Romaniello, S. J.; Skulan, J. L.; Smith, S. M.; Anbar, A. D.


    We demonstrate that variations in the Ca isotope ratios in urine rapidly and quantitatively reflect changes in bone mineral balance. This variation occurs because bone formation depletes soft tissue of light Ca isotopes, while bone resorption releases that isotopically light Ca back into soft tissue. In a study of 12 individuals confined to bed rest, a condition known to induce bone resorption, we show that Ca isotope ratios shift in a direction consistent with net bone loss after just 7 days, long before detectible changes in bone density occur. Consistent with this interpretation, the Ca isotope variations track changes observed in N-teleopeptide, a bone resorption biomarker, while bone-specific alkaline phosphatase, a bone formation biomarker, is unchanged. Ca isotopes can in principle be used to quantify net changes in bone mass. Ca isotopes indicate an average loss of 0.62 +/- 0.16 % in bone mass over the course of this 30-day study. The Ca isotope technique should accelerate the pace of discovery of new treatments for bone disease and provide novel insights into the dynamics of bone metabolism.

  14. Wildlife health in a rapidly changing North: focus on avian disease (United States)

    Van Hemert, Caroline R.; Pearce, John M.; Handel, Colleen M.


    Climate-related environmental changes have increasingly been linked to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife. The Arctic is facing a major ecological transition that is expected to substantially affect animal and human health. Changes in phenology or environmental conditions that result from climate warming may promote novel species assemblages as host and pathogen ranges expand to previously unoccupied areas. Recent evidence from the Arctic and subarctic suggests an increase in the spread and prevalence of some wildlife diseases, but baseline data necessary to detect and verify such changes are still lacking. Wild birds are undergoing rapid shifts in distribution and have been implicated in the spread of wildlife and zoonotic diseases. Here, we review evidence of current and projected changes in the abundance and distribution of avian diseases and outline strategies for future research. We discuss relevant climatic and environmental factors, emerging host–pathogen contact zones, the relationship between host condition and immune function, and potential wildlife and human health outcomes in northern regions.

  15. Monitoring Forest Change in Landscapes Under-Going Rapid Energy Development: Challenges and New Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul D. Pickell


    Full Text Available The accelerated development of energy resources around the world has substantially increased forest change related to oil and gas activities. In some cases, oil and gas activities are the primary catalyst of land-use change in forested landscapes. We discuss the challenges associated with characterizing ecological change related to energy resource development using North America as an exemplar. We synthesize the major impacts of energy development to forested ecosystems and offer new perspectives on how to detect and monitor anthropogenic disturbance during the Anthropocene. The disturbance of North American forests for energy development has resulted in persistent linear corridors, suppression of historical disturbance regimes, novel ecosystems, and the eradication of ecological memory. Characterizing anthropogenic disturbances using conventional patch-based disturbance measures will tend to underestimate the ecological impacts of energy development. Suitable indicators of anthropogenic impacts in forests should be derived from the integration of multi-scalar Earth observations. Relating these indicators to ecosystem condition will be a capstone in the progress toward monitoring forest change in landscapes undergoing rapid energy development.

  16. Rapid landscape change in 6th century northern Jordan: interdisciplinary geoarchaeological perspectives (United States)

    Lucke, Bernhard


    Landscapes of the ancient fertile crescent are considered affected by soil degradation as result of long-term farming since the Neolithic, and impressive ruins of antiquity led to assumptions that their abandonment must have been conntected with reduced agricultural productivity. In this context, a valley fill near the site of Abila of the Decapolis in northern Jordan was apparently deposited largely during the 6th century AD, and provides evidence for a rapid and intense landscape change during the Late Byzantine period. However, an interdisciplinary case study of land use, soil development, and sediments found that the valley fill cannot be connected with large-scale soil erosion in the vicinity of the site. On the one hand, this is indicated by the distribution of soil development and archaeological material as marker of past land use activity in the past, which suggests that the best soils were and still are used intensively. On the other hand, the sediments seem to point to the occurrence of climatic extremes such as heavy floods, the occurrence of soil creep after water saturation, but also a significant shift to aridity which may have triggered socio-economic changes of subsistence strategies from agriculture to pastoralism. The dates of sediments which are available so far indicate that the climatic change seemingly occurred rapidly within approximately 100 years during the late 6th and early 7th century AD, possibly connected with the "year without sun" or 'Mystery Veil' which the Byzantine historian Procopius described in the year 536 AD. Modern analogies of the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 let it seem possible that a volcanic event, perhaps the outbreak of the Ilopango volcano, was connected with these environmental turbulences. Such events cannot be understood by isolated studies: without a broad interdisciplinary framework, single archives are prone to misinterpretation, and our understanding of the environmental history of Abila is still very limited.

  17. Measuring Land Change in Coastal Zone around a Rapidly Urbanized Bay. (United States)

    Huang, Faming; Huang, Boqiang; Huang, Jinliang; Li, Shenghui


    Urban development is a major cause for eco-degradation in many coastal regions. Understanding urbanization dynamics and underlying driving factors is crucial for urban planning and management. Land-use dynamic degree indices and intensity analysis were used to measure land changes occurred in 1990, 2002, 2009, and 2017 in the coastal zone around Quanzhou bay, which is a rapidly urbanized bay in Southeast China. The comprehensive land-use dynamic degree and interval level intensity analysis both revealed that land change was accelerating across the three time intervals in a three-kilometer-wide zone along the coastal line (zone A), while land change was fastest during the second time interval 2002⁻2009 in a separate terrestrial area within coastal zone (zone B). Driven by urbanization, built-up gains and cropland losses were active for all time intervals in both zones. Mudflat losses were active except in the first time interval in zone A due to the intensive sea reclamation. The gain of mangrove was active while the loss of mangrove is dormant for all three intervals in zone A. Transition level analysis further revealed the similarities and differences in processes within patterns of land changes for both zones. The transition from cropland to built-up was systematically targeted and stationary while the transition from woodland to built-up was systematically avoiding transition in both zones. Built-up tended to target aquaculture for the second and third time intervals in zone A but avoid Aquaculture for all intervals in zone B. Land change in zone A was more significant than that in zone B during the second and third time intervals at three-level intensity. The application of intensity analysis can enhance our understanding of the patterns and processes in land changes and suitable land development plans in the Quanzhou bay area. This type of investigation is useful to provide information for developing sound land use policy to achieve urban sustainability in

  18. Rapid Land Cover Map Updates Using Change Detection and Robust Random Forest Classifiers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konrad J. Wessels


    Full Text Available The paper evaluated the Landsat Automated Land Cover Update Mapping (LALCUM system designed to rapidly update a land cover map to a desired nominal year using a pre-existing reference land cover map. The system uses the Iteratively Reweighted Multivariate Alteration Detection (IRMAD to identify areas of change and no change. The system then automatically generates large amounts of training samples (n > 1 million in the no-change areas as input to an optimized Random Forest classifier. Experiments were conducted in the KwaZulu-Natal Province of South Africa using a reference land cover map from 2008, a change mask between 2008 and 2011 and Landsat ETM+ data for 2011. The entire system took 9.5 h to process. We expected that the use of the change mask would improve classification accuracy by reducing the number of mislabeled training data caused by land cover change between 2008 and 2011. However, this was not the case due to exceptional robustness of Random Forest classifier to mislabeled training samples. The system achieved an overall accuracy of 65%–67% using 22 detailed classes and 72%–74% using 12 aggregated national classes. “Water”, “Plantations”, “Plantations—clearfelled”, “Orchards—trees”, “Sugarcane”, “Built-up/dense settlement”, “Cultivation—Irrigated” and “Forest (indigenous” had user’s accuracies above 70%. Other detailed classes (e.g., “Low density settlements”, “Mines and Quarries”, and “Cultivation, subsistence, drylands” which are required for operational, provincial-scale land use planning and are usually mapped using manual image interpretation, could not be mapped using Landsat spectral data alone. However, the system was able to map the 12 national classes, at a sufficiently high level of accuracy for national scale land cover monitoring. This update approach and the highly automated, scalable LALCUM system can improve the efficiency and update rate of regional land

  19. Cone-beam computed tomography evaluation of dentoskeletal changes after asymmetric rapid maxillary expansion. (United States)

    Baka, Zeliha Muge; Akin, Mehmet; Ucar, Faruk Izzet; Ileri, Zehra


    The aims of this study were to quantitatively evaluate the changes in arch widths and buccolingual inclinations of the posterior teeth after asymmetric rapid maxillary expansion (ARME) and to compare the measurements between the crossbite and the noncrossbite sides with cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT). From our clinic archives, we selected the CBCT records of 30 patients with unilateral skeletal crossbite (13 boys, 14.2 ± 1.3 years old; 17 girls, 13.8 ± 1.3 years old) who underwent ARME treatment. A modified acrylic bonded rapid maxillary expansion appliance including an occlusal locking mechanism was used in all patients. CBCT records had been taken before ARME treatment and after a 3-month retention period. Fourteen angular and 80 linear measurements were taken for the maxilla and the mandible. Frontally clipped CBCT images were used for the evaluation. Paired sample and independent sample t tests were used for statistical comparisons. Comparisons of the before-treatment and after-retention measurements showed that the arch widths and buccolingual inclinations of the posterior teeth increased significantly on the crossbite side of the maxilla and on the noncrossbite side of the mandible (P ARME treatment, the crossbite side of the maxilla and the noncrossbite side of the mandible were more affected than were the opposite sides. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  20. Serbian demographers on demography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rašević Mirjana


    ageing were singled out the most as significant for examining in the immediate future. The inclusion of Stanovništvo on the Science Citation Information Journal List and expanding the circle of authors were the basic recommendations of the respondents regarding better quality of the journal. All interviewed experts mentioned various kinds of knowledge and characteristics necessary for demographers to posses in order to be successful. Contrary to the homogeneous opinion that a demographer should be a superior-researcher, a wide range of responses were given to the question regarding selecting the best indicator for determining the successfulness of researchers in the study of population. As many as eight out of ten interviewed experts believe population ageing is the greatest population challenge which Serbia is facing. However, a low level of consensus appeared among the demographers as regards the range of the political response. Namely, five experts declared they were pessimists in view of the possibilities for mitigating the challenge they singled out. On the contrary, five interviewed experts expressed optimism, as they believe in the economic development of Serbia, the possibilities of institutional adjustments to demographic changes, and/or in man and his rationality. Conclusion: Demographers in Serbia highly appreciate the discipline they belong to. At the same time they are strict critics and have high expectations in all matters dealing with demography. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III 47006: Istraživanje demografskih fenomena u funkciji javnih politika u Srbiji

  1. Portable rapid gas content measurement - an opportunity for a step change in the coal industry?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beamish, Basil; Kizil, Mehmet; Gu, Ming


    The last major advance in gas content measurement for coal seams was the introduction of the quick crush technique in the early 1990s. This is a laboratory test method that has proven very reliable over the years. Recent laboratory testing using a portable quick crushing device, known as the portable gas content analyser, has produced consistent gas content results for a set of core samples obtained from a single borehole that intersected four coal seams. The retained gas content values obtained for the seams show the same increasing gas content pattern and gas composition change with depth as the standard quick crush technique. Use of the portable gas content analyser provides the opportunity to produce rapid, reliable gas content measurement of coal that could be developed for assessing gas compliance cores and outburst-prone conditions at a mine site.

  2. Phase field modeling of rapid crystallization in the phase-change material AIST (United States)

    Tabatabaei, Fatemeh; Boussinot, Guillaume; Spatschek, Robert; Brener, Efim A.; Apel, Markus


    We carry out phase field modeling as a continuum simulation technique in order to study rapid crystallization processes in the phase-change material AIST (Ag4In3Sb67Te26). In particular, we simulate the spatio-temporal evolution of the crystallization of a molten area of the phase-change material embedded in a layer stack. The simulation model is adapted to the experimental conditions used for recent measurements of crystallization rates by a laser pulse technique. Simulations are performed for substrate temperatures close to the melting temperature of AIST down to low temperatures when an amorphous state is involved. The design of the phase field model using the thin interface limit allows us to retrieve the two limiting regimes of interface controlled (low temperatures) and thermal transport controlled (high temperatures) dynamics. Our simulations show that, generically, the crystallization velocity presents a maximum in the intermediate regime where both the interface mobility and the thermal transport, through the molten area as well as through the layer stack, are important. Simulations reveal the complex interplay of all different contributions. This suggests that the maximum switching velocity depends not only on material properties but also on the precise design of the thin film structure into which the phase-change material is embedded.

  3. Spectroscopic sensitivity of real-time, rapidly induced phytochemical change in response to damage. (United States)

    Couture, John J; Serbin, Shawn P; Townsend, Philip A


    An ecological consequence of plant-herbivore interactions is the phytochemical induction of defenses in response to insect damage. Here, we used reflectance spectroscopy to characterize the foliar induction profile of cardenolides in Asclepias syriaca in response to damage, tracked in vivo changes and examined the influence of multiple plant traits on cardenolide concentrations. Foliar cardenolide concentrations were measured at specific time points following damage to capture their induction profile. Partial least-squares regression (PLSR) modeling was employed to calibrate cardenolide concentrations to reflectance spectroscopy. In addition, subsets of plants were either repeatedly sampled to track in vivo changes or modified to reduce latex flow to damaged areas. Cardenolide concentrations and the induction profile of A. syriaca were well predicted using models derived from reflectance spectroscopy, and this held true for repeatedly sampled plants. Correlations between cardenolides and other foliar-related variables were weak or not significant. Plant modification for latex reduction inhibited an induced cardenolide response. Our findings show that reflectance spectroscopy can characterize rapid phytochemical changes in vivo. We used reflectance spectroscopy to identify the mechanisms behind the production of plant secondary metabolites, simultaneously characterizing multiple foliar constituents. In this case, cardenolide induction appears to be largely driven by enhanced latex delivery to leaves following damage. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

  4. Changes in the etiology of valvular heart disease in the rapidly aging Korean population. (United States)

    Jang, Shin Yi; Ju, Eun-Young; Seo, Su Ra; Choi, Ji Yeon; Park, Sung-Ji; Kim, Duk-Kyung; Park, Seung Woo


    The aim of this study is to assess the changes in the causes of valvular heart disease between 2006 and 2011 in Korea. Data were collected from the Korean National Health Insurance Service from 2006 through 2011. These data consisted of primary diagnoses related to valvular heart disease regardless of other conditions. Valvular heart disease included non-rheumatic mitral valve disorders, non-rheumatic aortic valve disorders, rheumatic mitral valve disorders, and rheumatic aortic valve disorders. Overall, the age-standardized cumulative prevalence of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease was 70.6 per 100,000 persons in 2006 and 110.3 in 2011. This represented an increase from 42.2 to 65.2 in women and from 28.4 to 45.1 in men. In particular, there was a greater increase in prevalence in patients aged 65 years or older compared with groups aged 20-44 years or 45-64 years for both genders. The age-standardized cumulative prevalence of rheumatic valve disease did not change dramatically between 2006 and 2011. The overall age-standardized cumulative prevalence of non-rheumatic valvular heart diseases increased between 2006 and 2011, especially in individuals older than 65 years. These changes should be considered in future designs of cardiovascular healthcare services in countries with a rapidly aging population. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Rapid evolution of phenology during range expansion with recent climate change. (United States)

    Lustenhouwer, Nicky; Wilschut, Rutger A; Williams, Jennifer L; van der Putten, Wim H; Levine, Jonathan M


    Although climate warming is expected to make habitat beyond species' current cold range edge suitable for future colonization, this new habitat may present an array of biotic or abiotic conditions not experienced within the current range. Species' ability to shift their range with climate change may therefore depend on how populations evolve in response to such novel environmental conditions. However, due to the recent nature of thus far observed range expansions, the role of rapid adaptation during climate change migration is only beginning to be understood. Here, we evaluated evolution during the recent native range expansion of the annual plant Dittrichia graveolens, which is spreading northward in Europe from the Mediterranean region. We examined genetically based differentiation between core and edge populations in their phenology, a trait that is likely under selection with shorter growing seasons and greater seasonality at northern latitudes. In parallel common garden experiments at range edges in Switzerland and the Netherlands, we grew plants from Dutch, Swiss, and central and southern French populations. Population genetic analysis following RAD-sequencing of these populations supported the hypothesized central France origins of the Swiss and Dutch range edge populations. We found that in both common gardens, northern plants flowered up to 4 weeks earlier than southern plants. This differentiation in phenology extended from the core of the range to the Netherlands, a region only reached from central France over approximately the last 50 years. Fitness decreased as plants flowered later, supporting the hypothesized benefits of earlier flowering at the range edge. Our results suggest that native range expanding populations can rapidly adapt to novel environmental conditions in the expanded range, potentially promoting their ability to spread. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Net Ecosystem Exchange of CO2 with Rapidly Changing High Arctic Landscapes (United States)

    Emmerton, C. A.


    High Arctic landscapes are expansive and changing rapidly. However our understanding of their functional responses and potential to mitigate or enhance anthropogenic climate change is limited by few measurements. We collected eddy covariance measurements to quantify the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 with polar semidesert and meadow wetland landscapes at the highest-latitude location measured to date (82°N). We coupled these rare data with ground and satellite vegetation production measurements (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) to evaluate the effectiveness of upscaling local to regional NEE. During the growing season, the dry polar semidesert landscape was a near zero sink of atmospheric CO2 (NEE: -0.3±13.5 g C m-2). A nearby meadow wetland accumulated over two magnitudes more carbon (NEE: -79.3±20.0 g C m-2) than the polar semidesert landscape, and was similar to meadow wetland NEE at much more southern latitudes. Polar semidesert NEE was most influenced by moisture, with wetter surface soils resulting in greater soil respiration and CO2 emissions. At the meadow wetland, soil heating enhanced plant growth, which in turn increased CO2 uptake. Our upscaling assessment found that polar semidesert NDVI measured on site was low (mean: 0.120-0.157) and similar to satellite measurements (mean: 0.155-0.163). However, weak plant growth resulted in poor satellite NDVI-NEE relationships and created challenges for remotely-detecting changes in the cycling of carbon on the polar semidesert landscape. The meadow wetland appeared more suitable to assess plant production and NEE via remote-sensing, however high Arctic wetland extent is constrained by topography to small areas that may be difficult to resolve with large satellite pixels. We predict that until summer precipitation and humidity increases substantially, climate-related changes of dry high Arctic landscapes may be restricted by poor soil moisture retention, and therefore have some inertia against

  7. 'We are faced everywhere with a growing population': demographic change and the British state, 1955-64. (United States)

    O' Hara, Glen


    The early 1960s was a period of relative expansion for the welfare state, and the return to the use of planning techniques in macroeconomic policy. This has hitherto been explained by reference to a number of general causes. These have included party political electoral necessity, the need to gain popular support for the cold war by spreading the benefits of liberal capitalism, the power of welfare professionals, the growing realization that the post-war welfare state was not working as well as previously thought, and generational changes in politics and the civil service. Whilst not denying the importance of all these factors, this essay seeks to make clear the importance of another vital element in this story: the implications for the welfare state and the managed economy of the rise in the birth rate, and the perceived' population explosion', of the late 1950s and early 1960s. Statistical estimates are presented here that show just how large the implied expansion of the welfare state, and just how serious the pressure of a growing dependent population, would have been had the population predictions of the early 1930s proved to be accurate.

  8. Ageing of the baby boomer generation: how demographic change will impact on city and rural GP and nursing workforce. (United States)

    Schofield, D J; Page, S L; Lyle, D M; Walker, T J


    To compare the impact of ageing on the GP and nursing rural and city workforce. Cohort analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics census data. The data was used to examine the age distribution of the city and rural GP and nursing workforce; patterns of attrition for those 50 years and over; and the impact of changes in working hours. The rural GP and nursing workforce is significantly older than their city counterparts (pbaby boomer' generation making up 52% of city GPs but 59% of rural GPs in 2001. While a large proportion of city and rural GPs continued to work past the age of 65 years, rural GPs left the workforce at a significantly younger age than city doctors (pgeneration X' GPs were no more likely to work long hours than those in the city (pbaby boomers' continued to work long hours. Rural GPs are retiring faster than city GPs and strategies to attract rural GPs and nurses will be critical to ensure adequate rural health care and that current rural workforce shortage do not worsen.

  9. A decade of rapid change: Biocultural influences on child growth in highland Peru. (United States)

    Oths, Kathryn S; Smith, Hannah N; Stein, Max J; Lazo Landivar, Rodrigo J


    In the past decade many areas of Peru have been undergoing extreme environmental, economic, and cultural change. In the highland hamlet of Chugurpampa, La Libertad, climate change has ruined harvests and led to frequent periods of migration to the coast in search of livelihood. This biocultural research examines how the changes could be affecting the growth of children who maintain residence in the highlands. Clinical records from the early 2000s were compared to those from the early 2010s. Charts were randomly selected to record anthropometric data, netting a sample of 75 children ages 0-60 months of age. Analysis of covariance was run to compare mean stature, weight, and BMI between cohorts. Percentage of children who fall below the -2 threshold for z-scores for height and weight were compared by age and cohort. A significant secular trend in growth was found, with children born more recently larger than those born a decade before. The effect is most notable in the first year of life, with the growth advantage attenuated by the age of 3 for height and age 4 for weight. While children were unlikely to be stunted from 0 to 3 years of age, 44% of the later cohort were stunted and 11% were underweight from 4 to 5 years of age. Three possible explanations for the rapid shift are entertained: more time spent on the coast during gestation and early childhood, which may attenuate the effect of hypoxia on child growth; dietary change; and increased use of biomedicine. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Predicting bicycle helmet stage-of-change among middle school, high school, and college cyclists from demographic, cognitive, and motivational variables. (United States)

    Weiss, Jeffrey; Okun, Morris; Quay, Nancy


    To apply Prochaska's Transtheoretical model of behavior change to bicycle helmet use among middle school, high school, and college students. A battery of questionnaires was administered to cyclists in the seventh and ninth grades and to college students in Phoenix, Arizona (N=797). The battery included: (1) a question to determine respondent's stage of behavior change in Prochaska's Transtheoretical model; (2) items assessing the perceived pros and cons of helmet use; (3) a bicycle safety knowledge test; and (4) demographic information. Forty-three percent of the students were in "Precontemplation," 17% were in either "Contemplation" or "Preparation," 16% were in either "Action" or "Maintenance," and 24% were in the "Relapse" stage of change. Grade, Sex, Knowledge, Pros, and Cons, and the Grade by sex and the Grade by knowledge interactions were significant predictors of helmet use stages. Compared with students in Precontemplation, students in the Contemplation stage were disproportionately younger and had higher Pro scores, lower Con scores, and more knowledge (except in the ninth grade). The Transtheoretical model of behavior change is a viable theoretical framework for designing interventions aimed at increasing bicycle helmet use in children and adolescents.

  11. Rapid changes in the level of Kluane Lake in Yukon Territory over the last millennium (United States)

    Clague, John J.; Luckman, Brian H.; Van Dorp, Richard D.; Gilbert, Robert; Froese, Duane; Jensen, Britta J. L.; Reyes, Alberto V.


    The level of Kluane Lake, the largest lake in Yukon Territory, was lower than at present during most of the Holocene. The lake rose rapidly in the late seventeenth century to a level 12 m above present, drowning forest and stranding driftwood on a conspicuous high-stand beach, remnants of which are preserved at the south end of the lake. Kluane Lake fell back to near its present level by the end of the eighteenth century and has fluctuated within a range of about 3 m over the last 50 yr. The primary control on historic fluctuations in lake level is the discharge of Slims River, the largest source of water to the lake. We use tree ring and radiocarbon ages, stratigraphy and sub-bottom acoustic data to evaluate two explanations for the dramatic changes in the level of Kluane Lake. Our data support the hypothesis of Hugh Bostock, who suggested in 1969 that the maximum Little Ice Age advance of Kaskawulsh Glacier deposited large amounts of sediment in the Slims River valley and established the present course of Slims River into Kluane Lake. Bostock argued that these events caused the lake to rise and eventually overflow to the north. The overflowing waters incised the Duke River fan at the north end of Kluane Lake and lowered the lake to its present level. This study highlights the potentially dramatic impacts of climate change on regional hydrology during the Little Ice Age in glacierised mountains.

  12. Demographic modelling reveals a history of divergence with gene flow for a glacially tied stonefly in a changing post-Pleistocene landscape (United States)

    Hotaling, Scott; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Giersch, J. Joseph; Ali, Omar; Jordan, Steve; Miller, Michael R.; Luikart, Gordon; Weisrock, David W.


    AimClimate warming is causing extensive loss of glaciers in mountainous regions, yet our understanding of how glacial recession influences evolutionary processes and genetic diversity is limited. Linking genetic structure with the influences shaping it can improve understanding of how species respond to environmental change. Here, we used genome-scale data and demographic modelling to resolve the evolutionary history of Lednia tumana, a rare, aquatic insect endemic to alpine streams. We also employed a range of widely used data filtering approaches to quantify how they influenced population structure results.LocationAlpine streams in the Rocky Mountains of Glacier National Park, Montana, USA.TaxonLednia tumana, a stonefly (Order Plecoptera) in the family Nemouridae.MethodsWe generated single nucleotide polymorphism data through restriction-site associated DNA sequencing to assess contemporary patterns of genetic structure for 11 L. tumana populations. Using identified clusters, we assessed demographic history through model selection and parameter estimation in a coalescent framework. During population structure analyses, we filtered our data to assess the influence of singletons, missing data and total number of markers on results.ResultsContemporary patterns of population structure indicate that L. tumana exhibits a pattern of isolation-by-distance among populations within three genetic clusters that align with geography. Mean pairwise genetic differentiation (FST) among populations was 0.033. Coalescent-based demographic modelling supported divergence with gene flow among genetic clusters since the end of the Pleistocene (~13-17 kya), likely reflecting the south-to-north recession of ice sheets that accumulated during the Wisconsin glaciation.Main conclusionsWe identified a link between glacial retreat, evolutionary history and patterns of genetic diversity for a range-restricted stonefly imperiled by climate change. This finding included a history of

  13. A new oxidation flow reactor for measuring secondary aerosol formation of rapidly changing emission sources (United States)

    Simonen, Pauli; Saukko, Erkka; Karjalainen, Panu; Timonen, Hilkka; Bloss, Matthew; Aakko-Saksa, Päivi; Rönkkö, Topi; Keskinen, Jorma; Dal Maso, Miikka


    Oxidation flow reactors (OFRs) or environmental chambers can be used to estimate secondary aerosol formation potential of different emission sources. Emissions from anthropogenic sources, such as vehicles, often vary on short timescales. For example, to identify the vehicle driving conditions that lead to high potential secondary aerosol emissions, rapid oxidation of exhaust is needed. However, the residence times in environmental chambers and in most oxidation flow reactors are too long to study these transient effects ( ˜ 100 s in flow reactors and several hours in environmental chambers). Here, we present a new oxidation flow reactor, TSAR (TUT Secondary Aerosol Reactor), which has a short residence time ( ˜ 40 s) and near-laminar flow conditions. These improvements are achieved by reducing the reactor radius and volume. This allows studying, for example, the effect of vehicle driving conditions on the secondary aerosol formation potential of the exhaust. We show that the flow pattern in TSAR is nearly laminar and particle losses are negligible. The secondary organic aerosol (SOA) produced in TSAR has a similar mass spectrum to the SOA produced in the state-of-the-art reactor, PAM (potential aerosol mass). Both reactors produce the same amount of mass, but TSAR has a higher time resolution. We also show that TSAR is capable of measuring the secondary aerosol formation potential of a vehicle during a transient driving cycle and that the fast response of TSAR reveals how different driving conditions affect the amount of formed secondary aerosol. Thus, TSAR can be used to study rapidly changing emission sources, especially the vehicular emissions during transient driving.

  14. Rapid changes in water hardness and alkalinity: Calcite formation is lethal to Daphnia magna. (United States)

    Bogart, Sarah J; Woodman, Samuel; Steinkey, Dylan; Meays, Cindy; Pyle, Greg G


    There is growing concern that freshwater ecosystems may be negatively affected by ever-increasing anthropogenic inputs of extremely hard, highly alkaline effluent containing large quantities of Ca(2+), Mg(2+), CO3(2-), and HCO3(-) ions. In this study, the toxicity of rapid and extreme shifts in water hardness (38-600mg/L as CaCO3) and alkalinity (30-420mg/L as CaCO3) to Daphnia magna was tested, both independently and in combination. Within these ranges, where no precipitation event occurred, shifts in water hardness and/or alkalinity were not toxic to D. magna. In contrast, 98-100% of D. magna died within 96h after exposure to 600mg/L as CaCO3 water hardness and 420mg/L as CaCO3 alkalinity (LT50 of 60h with a 95% CI of 54.2-66.0h). In this treatment, a CaCO3 (calcite) precipitate formed in the water column which was ingested by and thoroughly coated the D. magna. Calcite collected from a mining impacted stream contained embedded organisms, suggesting field streams may also experience similar conditions and possibly increased mortality as observed in the lab tests. Although further investigation is required to determine the exact fate of aquatic organisms exposed to rapid calcite precipitation in the field, we caution that negative effects may occur more quickly or at lower concentrations of water hardness and alkalinity in which we observed effects in D. magna, because some species, such as aquatic insects, are more sensitive than cladocerans to changes in ionic strength. Our results provide evidence that both calcite precipitation and the major ion balance of waters should be managed in industrially affected ecosystems and we support the development of a hardness+alkalinity guideline for the protection of aquatic life. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Measuring Land Change in Coastal Zone around a Rapidly Urbanized Bay

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    Faming Huang


    Full Text Available Urban development is a major cause for eco-degradation in many coastal regions. Understanding urbanization dynamics and underlying driving factors is crucial for urban planning and management. Land-use dynamic degree indices and intensity analysis were used to measure land changes occurred in 1990, 2002, 2009, and 2017 in the coastal zone around Quanzhou bay, which is a rapidly urbanized bay in Southeast China. The comprehensive land-use dynamic degree and interval level intensity analysis both revealed that land change was accelerating across the three time intervals in a three-kilometer-wide zone along the coastal line (zone A, while land change was fastest during the second time interval 2002–2009 in a separate terrestrial area within coastal zone (zone B. Driven by urbanization, built-up gains and cropland losses were active for all time intervals in both zones. Mudflat losses were active except in the first time interval in zone A due to the intensive sea reclamation. The gain of mangrove was active while the loss of mangrove is dormant for all three intervals in zone A. Transition level analysis further revealed the similarities and differences in processes within patterns of land changes for both zones. The transition from cropland to built-up was systematically targeted and stationary while the transition from woodland to built-up was systematically avoiding transition in both zones. Built-up tended to target aquaculture for the second and third time intervals in zone A but avoid Aquaculture for all intervals in zone B. Land change in zone A was more significant than that in zone B during the second and third time intervals at three-level intensity. The application of intensity analysis can enhance our understanding of the patterns and processes in land changes and suitable land development plans in the Quanzhou bay area. This type of investigation is useful to provide information for developing sound land use policy to achieve urban

  16. Cumulative effects of rapid climate and land-use changes on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia (United States)

    Walker, D. A.; Leibman, M. O.; Forbes, B. C.; Epstein, H. E.


    Our principal goal is to develop better, more far-looking tools to predict the cumulative effects of resource development, climate-change, and traditional land use. Here we use remote sensing, climate-change analyses, socio-economic analyses, and vegetation-change models to examine the cumulative effects of climate change, gas development, and reindeer herding on the Yamal Peninsula in northwest Siberia as part of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI). We find: 1. Direct (planned) impacts of industrial activities on the Yamal Peninsula are currently local and limited in extent, but this is changing rapidly as extensive gas fields are developed and land and sea transportation corridors are developed to get the gas to market. Indirect impacts of the development at Bovanenkovo, the largest gas field, exceed the direct impacts by a factor of three, and the total area of influence of the development on the reindeer pasturelands (e.g., area where migration routes and access to pasturelands is affected) exceeds the direct impacts by a factor of about 40. 2. The trend in land-surface temperatures has co-varied with the trend in sea-ice. Low sea ice in the preceding December-March period is correlated to warmer land temperature the following summer. The sea- ice trends in the Kara Sea-Yamal region are tied to variation in the North Atlantic Oscillation index. 4. Only a small greening response to warming has been detected on the Yamal in comparison with some other areas in the Arctic (e.g. Northern Alaska). The actual effects of climate-change on vegetation are currently hard to document at the ground level because of lack of baseline and long-term ground observations and difficulty of excluding reindeer in these studies. 5. There is high potential for extensive landscape effects due to unstable sandy soils, and extremely ice-rich permafrost near the surface on slopes. 6. Two different vegetation modeling approaches are being used to predict

  17. Europe's Southeastern Gateway: Responding to Rapidly Changing Patterns of World Shipping. The University's Role

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    Roger E. HAMLIN


    Full Text Available World trade and transportation are changing dramatically. Energy prices and transport sustainability concerns are reinvigorating ocean freighter shipping. An ever-increasing portion of trade is in containers, and container ships are getting larger quickly. Many ports, nations and continents are not keeping up with ship size increases putting them at a trade disadvantage. Major canals and seaways must also upgrade or be rendered obsolete, causing a change in the pattern of world trade. Ports have to do more than expand vessel size limits. Port regions must also invest in infrastructure that improves multi-modal access to the port and augments hand-off of containers to smaller seaway ships, trains and trucks. With heightened security and evolving emphasis on flexible and efficient logistics, ports must become high-tech logistics hubs with improved real-time data about port throughput. Constanţa, Romania provides an example of an attempt to respond to this rapid change. Near the Danube Delta, on the Black Sea, Constanţa offers a potential southeastern gateway to Europe for the Black Sea, the Eastern Mediterranean and beyond. Ships from Asia, entering via the Suez Canal can easily access Constanţa, and thus save more than ten days of shipping time for destinations in southeastern Europe compared to shipping through Rotterdam or Hamburg. But Constanţa needs to make all the improvements mentioned above. Universities have several roles in this endeavor, including identifying and forecasting trends, providing the technical knowledge to develop high-tech logistics hubs, pursing publicprivate partnerships for infrastructure development and offering training.

  18. Rapid Environmental Change Drives Increased Land Use by an Arctic Marine Predator.

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    Todd C Atwood

    Full Text Available In the Arctic Ocean's southern Beaufort Sea (SB, the length of the sea ice melt season (i.e., period between the onset of sea ice break-up in summer and freeze-up in fall has increased substantially since the late 1990s. Historically, polar bears (Ursus maritimus of the SB have mostly remained on the sea ice year-round (except for those that came ashore to den, but recent changes in the extent and phenology of sea ice habitat have coincided with evidence that use of terrestrial habitat is increasing. We characterized the spatial behavior of polar bears spending summer and fall on land along Alaska's north coast to better understand the nexus between rapid environmental change and increased use of terrestrial habitat. We found that the percentage of radiocollared adult females from the SB subpopulation coming ashore has tripled over 15 years. Moreover, we detected trends of earlier arrival on shore, increased length of stay, and later departure back to sea ice, all of which were related to declines in the availability of sea ice habitat over the continental shelf and changes to sea ice phenology. Since the late 1990s, the mean duration of the open-water season in the SB increased by 36 days, and the mean length of stay on shore increased by 31 days. While on shore, the distribution of polar bears was influenced by the availability of scavenge subsidies in the form of subsistence-harvested bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus remains aggregated at sites along the coast. The declining spatio-temporal availability of sea ice habitat and increased availability of human-provisioned resources are likely to result in increased use of land. Increased residency on land is cause for concern given that, while there, bears may be exposed to a greater array of risk factors including those associated with increased human activities.

  19. Dynamic Performance of Maximum Power Point Trackers in TEG Systems Under Rapidly Changing Temperature Conditions (United States)

    Man, E. A.; Sera, D.; Mathe, L.; Schaltz, E.; Rosendahl, L.


    Characterization of thermoelectric generators (TEG) is widely discussed and equipment has been built that can perform such analysis. One method is often used to perform such characterization: constant temperature with variable thermal power input. Maximum power point tracking (MPPT) methods for TEG systems are mostly tested under steady-state conditions for different constant input temperatures. However, for most TEG applications, the input temperature gradient changes, exposing the MPPT to variable tracking conditions. An example is the exhaust pipe on hybrid vehicles, for which, because of the intermittent operation of the internal combustion engine, the TEG and its MPPT controller are exposed to a cyclic temperature profile. Furthermore, there are no guidelines on how fast the MPPT must be under such dynamic conditions. In the work discussed in this paper, temperature gradients for TEG integrated in several applications were evaluated; the results showed temperature variation up to 5°C/s for TEG systems. Electrical characterization of a calcium-manganese oxide TEG was performed at steady-state for different input temperatures and a maximum temperature of 401°C. By using electrical data from characterization of the oxide module, a solar array simulator was emulated to perform as a TEG. A trapezoidal temperature profile with different gradients was used on the TEG simulator to evaluate the dynamic MPPT efficiency. It is known that the perturb and observe (P&O) algorithm may have difficulty accurately tracking under rapidly changing conditions. To solve this problem, a compromise must be found between the magnitude of the increment and the sampling frequency of the control algorithm. The standard P&O performance was evaluated experimentally by using different temperature gradients for different MPPT sampling frequencies, and efficiency values are provided for all cases. The results showed that a tracking speed of 2.5 Hz can be successfully implemented on a TEG

  20. DNA microarray unravels rapid changes in transcriptome of MK-801 treated rat brain (United States)

    Kobayashi, Yuka; Kulikova, Sofya P; Shibato, Junko; Rakwal, Randeep; Satoh, Hiroyuki; Pinault, Didier; Masuo, Yoshinori


    AIM: To investigate the impact of MK-801 on gene expression patterns genome wide in rat brain regions. METHODS: Rats were treated with an intraperitoneal injection of MK-801 [0.08 (low-dose) and 0.16 (high-dose) mg/kg] or NaCl (vehicle control). In a first series of experiment, the frontoparietal electrocorticogram was recorded 15 min before and 60 min after injection. In a second series of experiments, the whole brain of each animal was rapidly removed at 40 min post-injection, and different regions were separated: amygdala, cerebral cortex, hippocampus, hypothalamus, midbrain and ventral striatum on ice followed by DNA microarray (4 × 44 K whole rat genome chip) analysis. RESULTS: Spectral analysis revealed that a single systemic injection of MK-801 significantly and selectively augmented the power of baseline gamma frequency (30-80 Hz) oscillations in the frontoparietal electroencephalogram. DNA microarray analysis showed the largest number (up- and down- regulations) of gene expressions in the cerebral cortex (378), midbrain (376), hippocampus (375), ventral striatum (353), amygdala (301), and hypothalamus (201) under low-dose (0.08 mg/kg) of MK-801. Under high-dose (0.16 mg/kg), ventral striatum (811) showed the largest number of gene expression changes. Gene expression changes were functionally categorized to reveal expression of genes and function varies with each brain region. CONCLUSION: Acute MK-801 treatment increases synchrony of baseline gamma oscillations, and causes very early changes in gene expressions in six individual rat brain regions, a first report. PMID:26629322

  1. The role of employee assistance programs in the era of rapid change in the health care delivery system. (United States)

    Sumerall, S W; Israel, A R; Brewer, R; Prew, R E


    With the rapid changes occurring in the American healthcare system, questions regarding various aspects of care have arisen. These changes have led to the need for individuals working within an Employee Assistance Program (EAP) to respond quickly and effectively to crisis situations. This article summarizes the different roles and responsibilities of EAP workers in the healthcare marketplace.

  2. Partner relationships in the Netherlands: new manifestations of the Second Demographic Transition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Latten, J.J.; Mulder, C.H.


    Partnership formation has rapidly and profoundly changed in theNetherlandssince the 1960s.Several scholars have placed these changes in the context of the Second Demographic Transition. We describe the main trends in the formation and dissolution of partnerships in theNetherlandsbetween the

  3. Partner relationships in the Netherlands : New manifestations of the Second Demographic Transition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Latten, Jan J.; Mulder, Clara H.


    Partnership formation has rapidly and profoundly changed in theNetherlandssince the 1960s.Several scholars have placed these changes in the context of the Second Demographic Transition. We describe the main trends in the formation and dissolution of partnerships in theNetherlandsbetween the

  4. Three dimensional evaluation of alveolar bone changes in response to different rapid palatal expansion activation rates

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    Brian LaBlonde

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Introduction: The aim of this multi-center retrospective study was to quantify the changes in alveolar bone height and thickness after using two different rapid palatal expansion (RPE activation protocols, and to determine whether a more rapid rate of expansion is likely to cause more adverse effects, such as alveolar tipping, dental tipping, fenestration and dehiscence of anchorage teeth. Methods: The sample consisted of pre- and post-expansion records from 40 subjects (age 8-15 years who underwent RPE using a 4-banded Hyrax appliance as part of their orthodontic treatment to correct posterior buccal crossbites. Subjects were divided into two groups according to their RPE activation rates (0.5 mm/day and 0.8 mm/day; n = 20 each group. Three-dimensional images for all included subjects were evaluated using Dolphin Imaging Software 11.7 Premium. Maxillary base width, buccal and palatal cortical bone thickness, alveolar bone height, and root angulation and length were measured. Significance of the changes in the measurements was evaluated using Wilcoxon signed-rank test and comparisons between groups were done using ANOVA. Significance was defined at p ≤ 0.05. Results: RPE activation rates of 0.5 mm per day (Group 1 and 0.8 mm per day (Group 2 caused significant increase in arch width following treatment; however, Group 2 showed greater increases compared to Group 1 (p < 0.01. Buccal alveolar height and width decreased significantly in both groups. Both treatment protocols resulted in significant increases in buccal-lingual angulation of teeth; however, Group 2 showed greater increases compared to Group 1 (p < 0.01. Conclusion: Both activation rates are associated with significant increase in intra-arch widths. However, 0.8 mm/day resulted in greater increases. The 0.8 mm/day activation rate also resulted in more increased dental tipping and decreased buccal alveolar bone thickness over 0.5 mm/day.

  5. Dental arch changes associated with rapid maxillary expansion: A retrospective model analysis study

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    Ivor M D′Souza


    Full Text Available Introduction: Transverse deficiency of the maxilla is a common clinical problem in orthodontics and dentofacial orthopedics. Transverse maxillary deficiency, isolated or associated with other dentofacial deformities, results in esthetic and functional impairment giving rise to several clinical manifestations such as asymmetrical facial growth, positional and functional mandibular deviations, altered dentofacial esthetics, adverse periodontal responses, unstable dental tipping, and other functional problems. Orthopedic maxillary expansion is the preferred treatment approach to increase the maxillary transverse dimension in young patients by splitting of the mid palatal suture. This orthopedic procedure has lately been subject of renewed interest in orthodontic treatment mechanics because of its potential for increasing arch perimeter to alleviate crowding in the maxillary arch without adversely affecting facial profile. Hence, the present investigation was conducted to establish a correlation between transverse expansion and changes in the arch perimeter, arch width and arch length. Methods: For this purpose, 10 subjects (five males, five females were selected who had been treated by rapid maxillary expansion (RME using hyrax rapid palatal expander followed by fixed mechanotherapy (PEA. Pretreatment (T1, postexpansion (T2, and posttreatment (T3 dental models were compared for dental changes brought about by RME treatment and its stability at the end of fixed mechanotherapy. After model measurements were made, the changes between T1-T2, T2-T3 and T1-T3 were determined for each patient. The mean difference between T1-T2, T2-T3 and T1-T3 were compared to assess the effects of RME on dental arch measurements. Results are expressed as mean ± standard deviation and are compared by repeated measures analysis of variance followed by a post-hoc test. Arch perimeter changes are correlated with changes in arch widths at the canine, premolar and molar

  6. Relative contribution of decreased productivity and survival to recent changes in the demographic trend of the Rivière George Caribou Herd

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    M. Crête


    Full Text Available The Rivière George caribou herd (RGCH was numerically low during the middle part of the century but apparently erupted in the sixties and the seventies. Puberty was early and pregnancy rate was high among RGCH females from 1973 until the mid-eighties when fecundity decreased significantly, in particular among sub-adults; productivity remained low in 1992. Autumn calf:female ratios reflected this trend in pregnancy, exceeding 50 calves: 100 cows between 1973 and 1983, but dropping thereafter progressively to a low of 24 in 1992. In 1993, this ratio rebounded back to 42. Annual adult survival rate of radio-collared females was high (0.95 at the beginning of the monitoring in 1984, but exhibited a variable but declining trend until 1992. Simulations were conducted to estimate the demographic trend of the RGCH between 1984 and 1992, using annual survival rates of radio-collared animals and annual autumn calffemale ratios to estimate calf production. Age structure played a minor role in estimating the finite rate of increase (Lamda. According to the simulations, the RGCH increased in size until 1987, and showed a slight decrease thereafter. The herd should have decreased by 12-15% between 1988 and 1993, according to the simulations. Productivity first caused a decline in Lamda, but in recent years decreased survival contributed slightly more than productivity to the reduction in Lamda. Estimation of the herd size by means of aerial censuses in 1976, 1984, 1988 and 1993 suggested a similar pattern in demographic trend, differences being statistically meaningless. We speculated on the future of the RGCH, that could have erupted after many decades of unfavourable weather. The herd will exhibit a rapid descent to low numbers if wolves show a numerical response to current caribou abundance, or if lichen availability on the winter range decreases due to competition with the adjacent and increasing Rivière aux Feuilles herd; otherwise it will exhibit

  7. A multiple-proxy approach to understanding rapid Holocene climate change in Southeast Greenland (United States)

    Davin, S. H.; Bradley, R. S.; Balascio, N. L.; de Wet, G.


    The susceptibility of the Arctic to climate change has made it an excellent workshop for paleoclimatological research. Although there have been previous studies concerning climate variability carried out in the Arctic, there remains a critical dearth of knowledge due the limited number of high-resolution Holocene climate-proxy records available from this region. This gap skews our understanding of observed and predicted climate change, and fuels uncertainty both in the realms of science and policy. This study takes a comprehensive approach to tracking Holocene climate variability in the vicinity of Tasiilaq, Southeast Greenland using a ~5.6 m sediment core from Lower Sermilik Lake. An age-depth model for the core has been established using 8 radiocarbon dates, the oldest of which was taken at 4 m down core and has been been dated to approximately 6.2 kyr BP. The bottom meter of the core below the final radiocarbon date contains a transition from cobbles and coarse sand to organic-rich laminations, indicating the termination of direct glacial influence and therefore likely marking the end of the last glacial period in this region. The remainder of the core is similarly organic-rich, with light-to-dark brown laminations ranging from 0.5 -1 cm in thickness and riddled with turbidites. Using this core in tandem with findings from an on-site assessment of the geomorphic history of the locale we attempt to assess and infer the rapid climatic shifts associated with the Holocene on a sub-centennial scale. Such changes include the termination of the last glacial period, the Mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum, the Neoglacial Period, the Medieval Climatic Optimum, and the Little Ice Age. A multiple proxy approach including magnetic susceptibility, bulk organic geochemistry, elemental profiles acquired by XRF scanning, grain-size, and spectral data will be used to characterize the sediment and infer paleoclimate conditions. Additionally, percent biogenic silica by weight has been

  8. Prevention and Control of Cardiovascular Disease in the Rapidly Changing Economy of China. (United States)

    Wu, Yangfeng; Benjamin, Emelia J; MacMahon, Stephen


    With one-fifth of the world's total population, China's prevention and control of cardiovascular disease (CVD) may affect the success of worldwide efforts to achieve sustainable CVD reduction. Understanding China's current cardiovascular epidemic requires awareness of the economic development in the past decades. The rapid economic transformations (industrialization, marketization, urbanization, globalization, and informationalization) contributed to the aging demography, unhealthy lifestyles, and environmental changes. The latter have predisposed to increasing cardiovascular risk factors and the CVD pandemic. Rising CVD rates have had a major economic impact, which has challenged the healthcare system and the whole society. With recognition of the importance of health, initial political steps and national actions have been taken to address the CVD epidemic. Looking to the future, we recommend that 4 priorities should be taken: pursue multisectorial government and nongovernment strategies targeting the underlying causes of CVD (the whole-of-government and whole-of-society policy); give priority to prevention; reform the healthcare system to fit the nature of noncommunicable diseases; and conduct research for evidence-based, low-cost, simple, sustainable, and scalable interventions. By pursuing the 4 priorities, the pandemic of CVD and other major noncommunicable diseases in China will be reversed and the global sustainable development goal achieved. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  9. Rapid changes in genetic architecture of behavioural syndromes following colonization of a novel environment. (United States)

    Karlsson Green, K; Eroukhmanoff, F; Harris, S; Pettersson, L B; Svensson, E I


    Behavioural syndromes, that is correlated behaviours, may be a result from adaptive correlational selection, but in a new environmental setting, the trait correlation might act as an evolutionary constraint. However, knowledge about the quantitative genetic basis of behavioural syndromes, and the stability and evolvability of genetic correlations under different ecological conditions, is limited. We investigated the quantitative genetic basis of correlated behaviours in the freshwater isopod Asellus aquaticus. In some Swedish lakes, A. aquaticus has recently colonized a novel habitat and diverged into two ecotypes, presumably due to habitat-specific selection from predation. Using a common garden approach and animal model analyses, we estimated quantitative genetic parameters for behavioural traits and compared the genetic architecture between the ecotypes. We report that the genetic covariance structure of the behavioural traits has been altered in the novel ecotype, demonstrating divergence in behavioural correlations. Thus, our study confirms that genetic correlations behind behaviours can change rapidly in response to novel selective environments. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  10. Rapid Temperature Changes and the Early Activity on Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (United States)

    Alí-Lagoa, V.; Delbo', M.; Libourel, G.


    The so-called “early activity” of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko has been observed to originate mostly in parts of the concave region or “neck” between its two lobes. Since activity is driven by the sublimation of volatiles, this is a puzzling result because this area is less exposed to the Sun and is therefore expected to be cooler on average. We used a thermophysical model that takes into account thermal inertia, global self-heating, and shadowing, to compute surface temperatures of the comet. We found that, for every rotation in the 2014 August-December period, some parts of the neck region undergo the fastest temperature variations of the comet’s surface precisely because they are shadowed by their surrounding terrains. Our work suggests that these fast temperature changes are correlated to the early activity of the comet, and we put forward the hypothesis that erosion related to thermal cracking is operating at a high rate on the neck region due to these rapid temperature variations. This may explain why the neck contains some ice—as opposed to most other parts of the surface—and why it is the main source of the comet’s early activity. In a broader context, these results indicate that thermal cracking can operate faster on atmosphereless bodies with significant concavities than implied by currently available estimates.

  11. Rapid modification in the olfactory signal of ants following a change in reproductive status (United States)

    Cuvillier-Hot, Virginie; Renault, Valérie; Peeters, Christian


    In insect societies, the presence and condition of egg-layers can be assessed with pheromones. Exocrine secretions are expected to vary in time in order to give up-to-date information on an individual’s reproductive physiology. In the queenless monogynous ant Streblognathus peetersi, we allowed a previously infertile high-ranking worker to accede to the alpha rank, thus triggering the onset of her oogenesis (15 replicates). We then studied her interactions with an established egg-layer from the same colony after different durations, ranging from 20 h to several days. Even though her eggs are only ready to be laid after 30 days, the new alpha was recognised within 1 2 days. Detection occurred at a distance of a few millimetres, suggesting the involvement of a pheromone with low volatility, such as cuticular hydrocarbons. When the new alpha had differentiated for >48 h, she was attacked by the established egg-layer. In all cases, low-ranking workers eventually immobilised one of the two alphas: the new alpha was the target if she had differentiated only recently, suggesting that police workers select the dominant worker with the “less fertile” odour. Using the behaviour of ants as our measure, we demonstrate that a dominant’s olfactory signal changes rapidly with a modification in her social status, and it occurs well before the onset of egg-laying.

  12. Qualification Testing Versus Quantitative Reliability Testing of PV - Gaining Confidence in a Rapidly Changing Technology: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Repins, Ingrid L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hacke, Peter L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jordan, Dirk [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kempe, Michael D [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Whitfield, Kent [Underwriters Laboratories; Phillips, Nancy [DuPont; Sample, Tony [European Commission; Monokroussos, Christos [TUV Rheinland; Hsi, Edward [Swiss RE; Wohlgemuth, John [PowerMark Corporation; Seidel, Peter [First Solar; Jahn, Ulrike [TUV Rheinland; Tanahashi, Tadanori [National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology; Chen, Yingnan [China General Certification Center; Jaeckel, Bengt [Underwriters Laboratories; Yamamichi, Masaaki [RTS Corporation


    Continued growth of PV system deployment would be enhanced by quantitative, low-uncertainty predictions of the degradation and failure rates of PV modules and systems. The intended product lifetime (decades) far exceeds the product development cycle (months), limiting our ability to reduce the uncertainty of the predictions for this rapidly changing technology. Yet, business decisions (setting insurance rates, analyzing return on investment, etc.) require quantitative risk assessment. Moving toward more quantitative assessments requires consideration of many factors, including the intended application, consequence of a possible failure, variability in the manufacturing, installation, and operation, as well as uncertainty in the measured acceleration factors, which provide the basis for predictions based on accelerated tests. As the industry matures, it is useful to periodically assess the overall strategy for standards development and prioritization of research to provide a technical basis both for the standards and the analysis related to the application of those. To this end, this paper suggests a tiered approach to creating risk assessments. Recent and planned potential improvements in international standards are also summarized.

  13. Modeling cavitation in a rapidly changing pressure field - application to a small ultrasonic horn. (United States)

    Žnidarčič, Anton; Mettin, Robert; Dular, Matevž


    Ultrasonic horn transducers are frequently used in applications of acoustic cavitation in liquids. It has been observed that if the horn tip is sufficiently small and driven at high amplitude, cavitation is very strong, and the tip can be covered entirely by the gas/vapor phase for longer time intervals. A peculiar dynamics of the attached cavity can emerge with expansion and collapse at a self-generated frequency in the subharmonic range, i.e. below the acoustic driving frequency. The term "acoustic supercavitation" was proposed for this type of cavitation Žnidarčič et al. (2014) [1]. We tested several established hydrodynamic cavitation models on this problem, but none of them was able to correctly predict the flow features. As a specific characteristic of such acoustic cavitation problems lies in the rapidly changing driving pressures, we present an improved approach to cavitation modeling, which does not neglect the second derivatives in the Rayleigh-Plesset equation. Comparison with measurements of acoustic supercavitation at an ultrasonic horn of 20kHz frequency revealed a good agreement in terms of cavity dynamics, cavity volume and emitted pressure pulsations. The newly developed cavitation model is particularly suited for simulation of cavitating flow in highly fluctuating driving pressure fields. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. [The demographic potential of Russia]. (United States)

    Vishnevskii, A


    This is a general review of current demographic trends in Russia. The author analyzes the decline in population size that is taking place at the end of the twentieth century, and traces its origins as far back as the disturbances associated with World War I, the Communist revolution, and the civil war that followed it. Political repression during the Stalinist period and the tribulations experienced during World War II also contributed to the current demographic crisis. The author discusses the changes in migration patterns and the declining fertility and increasing mortality rates. The decline in life expectancy is also addressed. Some comparisons are made with the demographic situation in other European countries.

  15. Changes in soft tissue nasal widths associated with rapid maxillary expansion in prepubertal and postpubertal subjects. (United States)

    Johnson, Bret M; McNamara, James A; Bandeen, Roger L; Baccetti, Tiziano


    To evaluate changes in the soft tissue width of the nose induced by rapid maxillary expansion (RME). Data on greater alar cartilage (GAC) and alar base (AB) widths were compared with a normative sample within the same age range. This prospective study consisted of an RME sample of 79 patients treated with an RME protocol. Mean age at the start of RME treatment was 13.5 years; average duration of treatment was 6.7 months. Patients were grouped into prepubertal and postpubertal groups based on their cervical vertebral maturation (CVM) stage. AB and GAC widths were determined at three separate time points. The normative sample consisted of 437 orthodontically untreated whites, aged 10-16 years. A repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to determine group differences. In addition, independent sample t-tests were used to compare posttreatment nasal width values vs the untreated normative sample. Increases in AB and GAC widths of the nose in the RME sample were less than 1.5 mm. No significant differences were noted in width changes between the prepubertal and postpubertal subgroups. Comparisons of T3 values showed that on average nasal width increases were greater in the RME group than in untreated norms by 1.7 mm for the GAC measure (statistically significant), and by less than 1 mm for the AB measure. RME has no significant clinical effects on the widths of the apical base and the greater alar cartilage of the nose; no differences were observed between the two maturational subgroups.

  16. The Future of Coral Reefs Subject to Rapid Climate Change: Lessons from Natural Extreme Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma F. Camp


    Full Text Available Global climate change and localized anthropogenic stressors are driving rapid declines in coral reef health. In vitro experiments have been fundamental in providing insight into how reef organisms will potentially respond to future climates. However, such experiments are inevitably limited in their ability to reproduce the complex interactions that govern reef systems. Studies examining coral communities that already persist under naturally-occurring extreme and marginal physicochemical conditions have therefore become increasingly popular to advance ecosystem scale predictions of future reef form and function, although no single site provides a perfect analog to future reefs. Here we review the current state of knowledge that exists on the distribution of corals in marginal and extreme environments, and geographic sites at the latitudinal extremes of reef growth, as well as a variety of shallow reef systems and reef-neighboring environments (including upwelling and CO2 vent sites. We also conduct a synthesis of the abiotic data that have been collected at these systems, to provide the first collective assessment on the range of extreme conditions under which corals currently persist. We use the review and data synthesis to increase our understanding of the biological and ecological mechanisms that facilitate survival and success under sub-optimal physicochemical conditions. This comprehensive assessment can begin to: (i highlight the extent of extreme abiotic scenarios under which corals can persist, (ii explore whether there are commonalities in coral taxa able to persist in such extremes, (iii provide evidence for key mechanisms required to support survival and/or persistence under sub-optimal environmental conditions, and (iv evaluate the potential of current sub-optimal coral environments to act as potential refugia under changing environmental conditions. Such a collective approach is critical to better understand the future survival of

  17. Lake ecosystem response to rapid lateglacial climate changes in lake sediments from northern Poland (United States)

    Słowiński, Michał; Zawiska, Izabela; Ott, Florian; Noryśkiewicz, Agnieszka M.; Apolinarska, Karina; Lutyńska, Monika; Michczyńska, Danuta J.; Brauer, Achim; Wulf, Sabine; Skubała, Piotr; Błaszkiewicz, Mirosław


    During the Late Glacial Period environment changes were triggered by climatic oscillations which in turn controlled processes like, for example, permafrost thawing, vegetation development and ground water circulation. These environmental changes are ideally recorded in lake sediments and thus can be reconstructed applying a multi-poxy approach. Here, we present the results from the Trzechowskie paleolake, located in the northern Polish lowlands (eastern part of the Pomeranian Lakeland). The site is situated on the outwash plain of the Wda River, which was formed during the Pomeranian phase of the Vistulian glaciation ca 16,000 14C yrs BP. The depression of the Trzechowskie lake basin formed after melting of a buried ice block during the Allerød (13903±170 cal yrs BP). We reconstructed environmental changes in the Trzechowskie paleolake and its catchment using biotic proxies (macrofossils, pollen, cladocera, diatoms, oribatidae mite) and geochemical proxies (δ18O, δ13C, loss-on-ignition (LOI), CaCO3 content). In addition, we carried out µ-XRF element core scanning. The chronology has been established by means of biostratigraphyAMS14C dating on plant macro remains, varve counting in laminated intervals and the late Allerød Laacher See Tephra isochrone. Our results showed that biogenic accumulation in the lake started during the Bølling. Development of coniferous forest during the Allerød with dominance of Pinus sylvestris lead to leaching of carbonates in the catchment due to low pH increasing the flux of Ca ions into the lake. In consequence calcite precipitating in the lake increased as evidences by increasing CaCO3 contents. Both biotic and physical proxies clearly reflect the rapid decrease in productivity at the onset of the Younger Dryas. We compare the data from the Trzechowskie paleolake with the Meerfelder Maar and Rehwiese lake records based on tephrochronological synchronization using the Laacher See Tephra. This study is a contribution to the

  18. Rapid change of ion energy distribution and floating potential at L/H transition in the JFT-2M tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miura, Y.; Nagashima, K.; Okano, F.


    Rapid changes of the main ion energy distribution at transitions from L-to-H, H-to-L and during ELMs are studied with the time of flight neutral measurement in the JFT-2M tokamak. The change of the main ion energy distribution after sawtooth crash during an L-mode phase is also studied. The change of the ion energy distribution just after sawtooth crash is the same as that at L/H-transition. The floating potential measured in the SOL also shows the rapid jump to more positive just after the sawtooth crash (at the same time of the change of an ion energy distribution). This shows the increase of ion outflux in the SOL and might correspond to the change of the ion energy distribution. This may be the reason why most of H-modes are triggered by a sawtooth. (author)

  19. Extremely rapid directional change during Matuyama-Brunhes geomagnetic polarity reversal (United States)

    Sagnotti, Leonardo; Scardia, Giancarlo; Giaccio, Biagio; Liddicoat, Joseph C.; Nomade, Sebastien; Renne, Paul R.; Sprain, Courtney J.


    We report a palaeomagnetic investigation of the last full geomagnetic field reversal, the Matuyama-Brunhes (M-B) transition, as preserved in a continuous sequence of exposed lacustrine sediments in the Apennines of Central Italy. The palaeomagnetic record provides the most direct evidence for the tempo of transitional field behaviour yet obtained for the M-B transition. 40Ar/39Ar dating of tephra layers bracketing the M-B transition provides high-accuracy age constraints and indicates a mean sediment accumulation rate of about 0.2 mm yr-1 during the transition. Two relative palaeointensity (RPI) minima are present in the M-B transition. During the terminus of the upper RPI minimum, a directional change of about 180 ° occurred at an extremely fast rate, estimated to be less than 2 ° per year, with no intermediate virtual geomagnetic poles (VGPs) documented during the transit from the southern to northern hemisphere. Thus, the entry into the Brunhes Normal Chron as represented by the palaeomagnetic directions and VGPs developed in a time interval comparable to the duration of an average human life, which is an order of magnitude more rapid than suggested by current models. The reported investigation therefore provides high-resolution integrated palaeomagnetic and radioisotopic data that document the fine details of the anatomy and tempo of the M-B transition in Central Italy that in turn are crucial for a better understanding of Earth's magnetic field, and for the development of more sophisticated models that are able to describe its global structure and behaviour.

  20. Diverse multi-decadal changes in streamflow within a rapidly urbanizing region (United States)

    Diem, Jeremy E.; Hill, T. Chee; Milligan, Richard A.


    The impact of urbanization on streamflow depends on a variety of factors (e.g., climate, initial land cover, inter-basin transfers, water withdrawals, wastewater effluent, etc.). The purpose of this study is to examine trends in streamflow from 1986 to 2015 in a range of watersheds within the rapidly urbanizing Atlanta, GA metropolitan area. This study compares eight watersheds over three decades, while minimizing the influence of inter-annual precipitation variability. Population and land-cover data were used to analyze changes over approximately twenty years within the watersheds. Precipitation totals for the watersheds were estimated using precipitation totals at nearby weather stations. Multiple streamflow variables, such as annual streamflow, frequencies of high-flow days (HFDs), flashiness, and precipitation-adjusted streamflow, for the eight streams were calculated using daily streamflow data. Variables were tested for significant trends from 1986 to 2015 and significant differences between 1986-2000 and 2001-2015. Flashiness increased for all streams without municipal water withdrawals, and the four watersheds with the largest increase in developed land had significant increases in flashiness. Significant positive trends in precipitation-adjusted mean annual streamflow and HFDs occurred for the two watersheds (Big Creek and Suwanee Creek) that experienced the largest increases in development, and these were the only watersheds that went from majority forest land in 1986 to majority developed land in 2015. With a disproportionate increase in HFD occurrence during summer, Big Creek and Suwannee Creek also had a reduction in intra-annual variability of HFD occurrence. Watersheds that were already substantially developed at the beginning of the period and did not have wastewater discharge had declining streamflow. The most urbanized watershed (Peachtree Creek) had a significant decrease in streamflow, and a possible cause of the decrease was increasing

  1. Migration, settlement change and health in post-apartheid South Africa: Triangulating health and demographic surveillance with national census data1 (United States)



    Background World population growth will be increasingly concentrated in the urban areas of the developing world; however, some scholars caution against the oversimplification of African urbanization noting that there may be “counter-urbanization” and a prevailing pattern of circular rural–urban migration. The aim of the paper is to examine the ongoing urban transition in South Africa in the post-apartheid period, and to consider the health and social policy implications of prevailing migration patterns. Methods Two data sets were analysed, namely the South African national census of 2001 and the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system. A settlement-type transition matrix was constructed on the national data to show how patterns of settlement have changed in a five-year period. Using the sub-district data, permanent and temporary migration was characterized, providing migration rates by age and sex, and showing the distribution of origins and destinations. Findings The comparison of national and sub-district data highlight the following features: urban population growth, particularly in metropolitan areas, resulting from permanent and temporary migration; prevailing patterns of temporary, circular migration, and a changing gender balance in this form of migration; stepwise urbanization; and return migration from urban to rural areas. Conclusions Policy concerns include: rural poverty exacerbated by labour migration; explosive conditions for the transmission of HIV; labour migrants returning to die in rural areas; and the challenges for health information created by chronically ill migrants returning to rural areas to convalesce. Lastly, suggestions are made on how to address the dearth of relevant population information for policy-making in the fields of migration, settlement change and health. PMID:17676507

  2. Demographic stagnation and decline in Spain: A cause for concern?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serrano-Martínez José-María


    Full Text Available For years, the Spanish population has been rapidly ageing, showing signs of atony and stagnation. Between 1996 and 2007, in a phase of economic growth, the entry of foreign immigrants drove a global increase in population. But after the economic recession migratory flows show negative net balances. Our objective is to explain and confirm the demographic regression suffered by Spain. We are also interested in showing how the recent and intense immigration process has failed to generate significant changes in natural demographic characteristics and trends. National censuses, published by the National Institute of Statistics (INE, are our main source of demographic data. The analysis of the most recent relevant scientific literature has allowed us to compare opinions and discuss results. The data confirm an uncertain and worrying future for the Spanish population.

  3. Rapid Assessment of Small Changes to Major Gun and Projectile Dynamic Parameters

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Erline, Thomas


    The U.S. Navy's 5-in 54-cal. (5"/54) gun system Mark (Mk) 45 was subjected to first-order dynamic analysis tools that allowed rapid assessment of ballistic dispersion of a typical naval high explosive projectile...

  4. Personal and demographic factors and change of subjective indoor air quality reported by school children in relation to exposure at Swedish schools: a 2-year longitudinal study. (United States)

    Wang, Juan; Smedje, Greta; Nordquist, Tobias; Norbäck, Dan


    This paper studies changes in subjective indoor air quality (SIAQ) among school children and relates these data to repeated exposure measurements during a two-year follow-up period. Data on SIAQ and demographic information were gathered by a questionnaire sent to 1476 primary and secondary school pupils in 39 randomly selected schools at baseline and after two years (follow-up). Exposure measurements were applied after questionnaire data were collected at baseline and follow-up in approximately 100 classrooms. The arithmetic mean values for baseline and follow-up were: for indoor air temperature 23.6°C and 21.8°C and for outdoor air flow rate 5.4 L/s and 7.9L/s. Older children, those with atopy at baseline, and those in larger schools reported impaired SIAQ during follow-up. Installation of new ventilation systems, higher personal air flow rate and air exchange rate, and better illumination were associated with improved SIAQ. Higher CO2 levels were associated with impaired SIAQ. In conclusion, sufficient ventilation and illumination in classrooms are essential for the perception of good indoor air quality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Organizational Adaptation to the Rapidly Changing External Environment: A Case Study of Strategic Marketing at Notre Dame College in Ohio (United States)

    Brown, Shawn M.


    This thesis examined the role of strategic marketing in organizational adaptation to a rapidly changing and competitive external environment among institutions of higher education. Colleges and universities adapt to external pressures as open systems operating within a broader external environment (Bess & Dee, 2008; Keller, 1983). How does…

  6. Neolithisation of the Aegean and Southeast Europe during the 6600–6000 calBC period of Rapid Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernhard Weninger


    Full Text Available In extension of the recently established ‘Rapid Climate Change (RCC Neolithisation Model’ (Clare 2013, in the present paper we demonstrate the existence of a remarkable coincidence between the exact (decadel-scale entry and departure dates of the Neolithic into/from the Aegean (~6600/6050 calBC with begin/end of RCC-conditions.

  7. Vertebrates population response to the climatic change - pertinence of the environmental indicators and influence of the demographic strategies and consequences for the biodiversity dynamic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weimerskirch, H.


    There is a growing interest and major challenge to understand the way environmental variability and climatic change have affected and will affect ecosystems and populations. Long-term records of population parameters of vertebrates are rare, but invaluable to address this challenge. The network CLIMPOP brings together French researchers working with long term data collected on individually marked animals to study the effects of climate change on a range of vertebrate populations (reptiles, birds and mammals) and standardised methods to link climatic factors and demographic parameters. The funding from GICC-IFB has allowed the CLIMPOP group to hire a post doc bridging methodologists and ecologists, organize a workshop and support field studies. Several analyses on a series of vertebrates have been carried out on the link between large-scale and small-scale climatic factors and population dynamics. In addition the CLIMPOP group has carried out a major methodological paper reviewing statistical models and procedures to study the influence of climate on vital rates based on the analysis of individual monitoring data, to identify potential pitfalls in the utilization of these models and procedures, to review published papers in which the influence of climatic variation on survival probability in vertebrate populations has been addressed, to evaluate whether the results from these studies are relevant and to draw practical recommendations to efficiently address effects of climate effects on vital rates in natural vertebrate populations. This evaluation raised six potential methodological issues and indicates that so far most of the studies found in the ecological literature can be considered as being useful for the purpose of generating hypothesis rather than for that of obtaining solid evidence for the impact of climatic factors on vital rates. (author)

  8. Rapid fluvial aggradation in response to climate change in northwestern Argentina (United States)

    Wickert, Andrew; Schildgen, Taylor; Strecker, Manfred


    River channels near the edge of the northwestern Argentine Andes are rapidly aggrading at present, with preliminary estimates suggesting rates of ~20 cm yr-1. This mirrors cycles of extensive aggradation over the past 100,000 years that formed pronounced fill terraces along regional valley networks and record periods in which in which climate-driven sediment supply overcame uplift-driven river incision (Robinson et al, 2005). Here we use the new SedFlow model (Heimann et al., 2014) to help us understand the causes and spread of aggradation across these basins in the modern system, with the additional eventual goal to better interpret the geologic record. We provide field-derived grain-size distributions, field-measured and remotely-sensed channel widths and valley slopes, and a variety of possible sediment source locations and amounts as inputs to SedFlow, which routes sediment through the fluvial channel network to produce time-evolving predictions of aggradation and incision. We compare these predictions against changes in topography measured by IceSAT (Zwally et al., 2014) and field surveys. We initially test the system response to a series of isolated sediment inputs to observe interactions between tributary systems and the mainstem river. Recent observations indicate that debris-flow induced landslides are important contributors to aggradation in these rivers (Cencetti and Rivelli, 2011). These and other sediment production and transport processes are likely driven by variations in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Bookhagen and Strecker, 2009). Therefore, we then run SedFlow with sediment inputs distributed across the landscape based on locations where ENSO influences may trigger enhanced landsliding. These model experiments help us towards our end goal of providing a more quantitative basis to interpret field observations of landscape response to changing patterns of precipitation. References: Bookhagen, B. and Strecker, M.: Amazonia: Landscape and

  9. We really need to talk: adapting FDA processes to rapid change. (United States)

    Lykken, Sara


    The rapidly evolving realm of modern commerce strains traditional regulatory paradigms. This paper traces the historical evolution of FDA crisis-response regulation and provides examples of ways in which the definitions and procedures resulting from that past continue to be challenged by new products as market entrants, some in good faith and others not, take actions that create disconnects between actual product and marketing controls and those that consumers might expect. The paper then explores some of the techniques used by other federal agencies that have faced similar challenges in environments characterized by rapid innovation, and draws from this analysis suggestions for improvement of the FDA's warning letter system.

  10. Beyond naturalness: Adapting wilderness stewardship to an era of rapid global change (United States)

    David N. Cole


    Climate change and its effects are writ large across wilderness landscapes. They always have been and always will be (see Figure 1). But contemporary change is different. For the first time, the pace and direction of climate change appear to be driven significantly by human activities (IPCC 2007), and this change is playing out across landscapes already affected by...

  11. Automatic change detection in RapidEye data using the combined MAD and kernel MAF methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Hecheltjen, Antje; Thonfeld, Frank


    The IR-MAD components show changes for a large part of the entire subset. Especially phenological changes in the agricultural fields surrounding the open pit are predominant. As opposed to this, kMAF components focus more on changes in the open-cast mine (and changes due to the two clouds...... and their shadows, not visible in the zoom). Ground data were available from bucket-wheel excavators on the extraction side (to the northwest in the open pit) in terms of elevation data for both dates. No ground data were available for changes due to backfill (southeastern part of the open pit) or changes due...

  12. Rapidly changing treatment options adding burden to the management of typhoid fever

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaspal Kaur


    Full Text Available Typhoid fever continues to be a global public health problem. It is caused by the facultative intracellular organisms Salmonella enteric serotype Typhi and Salmonella paratyphi. Antimicrobial therapy is the mainstay for treatment of typhoid fever. Chloramphenicol, ampicillin, and cotrimoxazole had been in use for decades for treating enteric fever. But the emergence and rapid spread of drug resistance has resulted in rapid shift of treatment options from chloramphenicol to fluoroquinolones to third generation cephalosporins to azithromycin with tigecycline and carbapenems in line, thus adding burden to the health-care sector in developing countries. Rational and judicious antibiotic prescribing practices by health professionals are necessary to prevent further development of drug resistance and help in re-emergence of sensitive strains.

  13. Methoxychlor and Vinclozolin Induce Rapid Changes in Intercellular and Intracellular Signaling in Liver Progenitor Cells. (United States)

    Babica, Pavel; Zurabian, Rimma; Kumar, Esha R; Chopra, Rajus; Mianecki, Maxwell J; Park, Joon-Suk; Jaša, Libor; Trosko, James E; Upham, Brad L


    Methoxychlor (MXC) and vinclozolin (VIN) are well-recognized endocrine disrupting chemicals known to alter epigenetic regulations and transgenerational inheritance; however, non-endocrine disruption endpoints are also important. Thus, we determined the effects of MXC and VIN on the dysregulation of gap junctional intercellular communication (GJIC) and activation of mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPKs) in WB-F344 rat liver epithelial cells. Both chemicals induced a rapid dysregulation of GJIC at non-cytotoxic doses, with 30 min EC50 values for GJIC inhibition being 10 µM for MXC and 126 µM for VIN. MXC inhibited GJIC for at least 24 h, while VIN effects were transient and GJIC recovered after 4 h. VIN induced rapid hyperphosphorylation and internalization of gap junction protein connexin43, and both chemicals also activated MAPK ERK1/2 and p38. Effects on GJIC were not prevented by MEK1/2 inhibitor, but by an inhibitor of phosphatidylcholine-specific phospholipase C (PC-PLC), resveratrol, and in the case of VIN, also, by a p38 inhibitor. Estrogen (ER) and androgen receptor (AR) modulators (estradiol, ICI 182,780, HPTE, testosterone, flutamide, VIN M2) did not attenuate MXC or VIN effects on GJIC. Our data also indicate that the effects were elicited by the parental compounds of MXC and VIN. Our study provides new evidence that MXC and VIN dysregulate GJIC via mechanisms involving rapid activation of PC-PLC occurring independently of ER- or AR-dependent genomic signaling. Such alterations of rapid intercellular and intracellular signaling events involved in regulations of gene expression, tissue development, function and homeostasis, could also contribute to transgenerational epigenetic effects of endocrine disruptors. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Toxicology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail:

  14. Land use change monitoring in Maryland using a probabilistic sample and rapid photointerpretation (United States)

    Tonya Lister; Andrew Lister; Eunice Alexander


    The U.S. state of Maryland needs to monitor land use change in order to address land management objectives. This paper presents a change detection method that, through automation and standard geographic information system (GIS) techniques, facilitates the estimation of landscape change via photointerpretation. Using the protocols developed, we show a net loss of forest...

  15. Rapid lung MRI in children with pulmonary infections: Time to change our diagnostic algorithms. (United States)

    Sodhi, Kushaljit Singh; Khandelwal, Niranjan; Saxena, Akshay Kumar; Singh, Meenu; Agarwal, Ritesh; Bhatia, Anmol; Lee, Edward Y


    To determine the diagnostic utility of a new rapid MRI protocol, as compared with computed tomography (CT) for the detection of various pulmonary and mediastinal abnormalities in children with suspected pulmonary infections. Seventy-five children (age range of 5 to 15 years) with clinically suspected pulmonary infections were enrolled in this prospective study, which was approved by the institutional ethics committee. All patients underwent thoracic MRI (1.5T) and CT (64 detector) scan within 48 h of each other. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of MRI were evaluated with CT as a standard of reference. Inter-observer agreement was measured with the kappa coefficient. MRI with a new rapid MRI protocol demonstrated sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 100% for detecting pulmonary consolidation, nodules (>3 mm), cyst/cavity, hyperinflation, pleural effusion, and lymph nodes. The kappa-test showed almost perfect agreement between MRI and multidetector CT (MDCT) in detecting thoracic abnormalities (k = 0.9). No statistically significant difference was observed between MRI and MDCT for detecting thoracic abnormalities by the McNemar test (P = 0.125). Rapid lung MRI was found to be comparable to MDCT for detecting thoracic abnormalities in pediatric patients with clinically suspected pulmonary infections. It has a great potential as the first line cross-sectional imaging modality of choice in this patient population. However, further studies will be helpful for confirmation of our findings. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. A replicated climate change field experiment reveals rapid evolutionary response in an ecologically important soil invertebrate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bataillon, Thomas; Galtier, Nicolas; Bernard, Aurelien


    to climate change in a common annelid worm using a controlled replicated experiment where climatic conditions were manipulated in a natural setting. Analyzing the transcribed genome of 15 local populations, we found that about 12% of the genetic polymorphisms exhibit differences in allele frequencies......Whether species can respond evolutionarily to current climate change is crucial for the persistence of many species. Yet, very few studies have examined genetic responses to climate change in manipulated experiments carried out innatural field conditions. We examined the evolutionary response...... associated to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture. This shows an evolutionaryresponse to realistic climate change happening over short-time scale, and calls for incorporating evolution into modelspredicting future response of species to climate change. It also shows that designed climate change...

  17. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Querbes, A.; Vaesen, K.; Houkes, W.N.


    Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological

  18. Rapid change in the defense of flightless young by a mourning dove parent (United States)

    Berdeen, James; Otis, D.L.


    We report that an adult-sized Zenaida macroura (Mourning Dove), presumably a parent, rapidly decreased risk taken in defense of a juvenile as the likelihood of predation to the juvenile increased. We attribute this decrease in risk taken to (1) the parent's perception that the risk of predation had increased to the extent that a continuation of defensive behaviors would not prevent the death of the juvenile, and (2) its attempt to minimize its own risk of death. It may be that there is a threshold beyond which Mourning Dove parents will forgo the risk of additional defense of offspring in favor of making another reproductive attempt.

  19. Operational research leading to rapid national policy change: tuberculosis-diabetes collaboration in India. (United States)

    Kumar, A M V; Satyanarayana, S; Wilson, N C; Chadha, S S; Gupta, D; Nair, S; Zachariah, R; Kapur, A; Harries, A D


    In 2011, bi-directional screening for tuberculosis (TB) and diabetes mellitus (DM) was recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), although how best to implement the activity was not clear. In India, with early engagement of national programme managers and all important stakeholders, a countrywide, multicentre operational research (OR) project was designed in October 2011 and completed in 2012. The results led to a rapid national policy decision to routinely screen all TB patients for DM in September 2012. The process, experience and enablers of implementing this unique and successful collaborative model of operational research are presented.

  20. Rapid forest change in the interior west presents analysis opportunities and challenges (United States)

    John D. Shaw


    A recent drought has caused compositional and structural changes in Interior West forests. Recent periodic and annual inventory data provide an opportunity to analyze forest changes on a grand scale. This "natural experiment" also provides opportunities to test the effectiveness of Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) methodologies. It also presents some...

  1. A rapid infusion protocol is safe for total dose iron polymaltose: time for change. (United States)

    Garg, M; Morrison, G; Friedman, A; Lau, A; Lau, D; Gibson, P R


    Intravenous correction of iron deficiency by total dose iron polymaltose is inexpensive and safe, but current protocols entail prolonged administration over more than 4 h. This results in reduced patient acceptance, and hospital resource strain. We aimed to assess prospectively the safety of a rapid intravenous protocol and compare this with historical controls. Consecutive patients in whom intravenous iron replacement was indicated were invited to have up to 1.5 g iron polymaltose by a 58-min infusion protocol after an initial 15-min test dose without pre-medication. Infusion-related adverse events (AE) and delayed AE over the ensuing 5 days were also prospectively documented and graded as mild, moderate or severe. One hundred patients, 63 female, mean age 54 (range 18-85) years were studied. Thirty-four infusion-related AE to iron polymaltose occurred in a total of 24 patients--25 mild, 8 moderate and 1 severe; higher than previously reported for a slow protocol iron infusion. Thirty-one delayed AE occurred in 26 patients--26 mild, 3 moderate and 2 severe; similar to previously reported. All but five patients reported they would prefer iron replacement through the rapid protocol again. The presence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) predicted infusion-related reactions (54% vs 14% without IBD, P cost, resource utilization and time benefits for the patient and hospital system. © 2011 The Authors. Internal Medicine Journal © 2011 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

  2. Rapid transformation of two libraries using Kotter's Eight Steps of Change. (United States)

    Wheeler, Terrie R; Holmes, Kristi L


    Two new directors were each charged by their institutions to catalyze transformational change in their libraries and to develop dynamic and evolving information ecosystems ready for the information challenges of the future. The directors approached this transformational change using a strategic, forward-looking approach. This paper presents examples of actions that served as catalysts for change at the two libraries using Kotter's Eight Steps of Change as a framework. Small and large changes are critical for successfully transforming library services, resources, and personnel. Libraries are faced with incredible pressure to adapt to meet emerging and intensifying information needs on today's academic medical campuses. These pressures offer an opportunity for libraries to accelerate their evolution at the micro and macro levels. This commentary reports the expansion of new services and areas of support, enhancement of professional visibility of the libraries on their campuses, and overall, a more positive and productive environment at the respective institutions.

  3. Systemic range shift lags among a pollinator species assemblage following rapid climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bedford, Felicity E.; Whittaker, Robert J.; Kerr, Jeremy T.


    Contemporary climate change is driving widespread geographical range shifts among many species. If species are tracking changing climate successfully, then leading populations should experience similar climatic conditions through time as new populations establish beyond historical range margins....... Here, we investigate geographical range shifts relative to changing climatic conditions among a particularly well-sampled assemblage of butterflies in Canada. We assembled observations of 81 species and measured their latitudinal displacement between two periods: 1960–1975 (a period of little climate...... change) and 1990–2005 (a period with large climate change). We find an unexpected trend for species’ northern borders to shift progressively less relative to increasing minimum winter temperatures in northern Canada. This study demonstrates a novel, systemic latitudinal gradient in lags among a large...


    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Zhe; Jiang, Yunchun; Yang, Jiayang; Yang, Bo; Bi, Yi


    We present observations of the violent changes in photospheric magnetic structures associated with an X1.1 flare, which occurred in a compact δ-configuration region in the following part of AR 11890 on 2013 November 8. In both central and peripheral penumbra regions of the small δ sunspot, these changes took place abruptly and permanently in the reverse direction during the flare: the inner/outer penumbra darkened/disappeared, where the magnetic fields became more horizontal/vertical. Particularly, the Lorentz force (LF) changes in the central/peripheral region had a downward/upward and inward direction, meaning that the local pressure from the upper atmosphere was enhanced/released. It indicates that the LF changes might be responsible for the penumbra changes. These observations can be well explained as the photospheric response to the coronal field reconstruction within the framework of the magnetic implosion theory and the back reaction model of flares

  5. Influences of sex and activity level on physiological changes in individual adult sockeye salmon during rapid senescence. (United States)

    Hruska, Kimberly A; Hinch, Scott G; Healey, Michael C; Patterson, David A; Larsson, Stefan; Farrell, Anthony P


    A noninvasive biopsy protocol was used to sample plasma and gill tissue in individual sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) during the critical life stage associated with spawning-arrival at a spawning channel through senescence to death several days later. Our main objective was to characterize the physiological changes associated with rapid senescence in terms of the physiological stress/cortisol hypersecretion model and the energy exhaustion model. Salmon lived an average of 5 d in the spawning channel, during which time there were three major physiological trends that were independent of sexual status: a large increase in plasma indicators of stress and exercise (i.e., lactate and cortisol), a decrease in the major plasma ions (i.e., Cl(-) and Na(+)) and osmolality, and a decrease in gross somatic energy reserves. Contrary to a generalized stress response, plasma glucose decreased in approximately 2/3 of the fish after arrival, as opposed to increasing. Furthermore, plasma cortisol levels at spawning-ground arrival were not correlated with the degree of ionoregulatory changes during rapid senescence. One mechanism of mortality in some fish may involve the exhaustion of energy reserves, resulting in the inability to mobilize plasma glucose. Sex had a significant modulating effect on the degree of physiological change. Females exhibited a greater magnitude of change for gross somatic energy, osmolality, and plasma concentrations of Cl(-), Na(+), cortisol, testosterone, 11-ketotestosterone, 17,20beta-progesterone, and estradiol. The activity level of an individual on the spawning grounds appeared to influence the degree of some physiological changes during senescence. For example, males that received a greater frequency of attacks exhibited larger net decreases in plasma 11-ketotestosterone while on the spawning grounds. These results suggest that rapid senescence on spawning grounds is influenced by multiple physiological processes and perhaps behavior. This study

  6. Television, disordered eating, and young women in Fiji: negotiating body image and identity during rapid social change. (United States)

    Becker, Anne E


    Although the relationship between media exposure and risk behavior among youth is established at a population level, the specific psychological and social mechanisms mediating the adverse effects of media on youth remain poorly understood. This study reports on an investigation of the impact of the introduction of television to a rural community in Western Fiji on adolescent ethnic Fijian girls in a setting of rapid social and economic change. Narrative data were collected from 30 purposively selected ethnic Fijian secondary school girls via semi-structured, open-ended interviews. Interviews were conducted in 1998, 3 years after television was first broadcast to this region of Fiji. Narrative data were analyzed for content relating to response to television and mechanisms that mediate self and body image in Fijian adolescents. Data in this sample suggest that media imagery is used in both creative and destructive ways by adolescent Fijian girls to navigate opportunities and conflicts posed by the rapidly changing social environment. Study respondents indicated their explicit modeling of the perceived positive attributes of characters presented in television dramas, but also the beginnings of weight and body shape preoccupation, purging behavior to control weight, and body disparagement. Response to television appeared to be shaped by a desire for competitive social positioning during a period of rapid social transition. Understanding vulnerability to images and values imported with media will be critical to preventing disordered eating and, potentially, other youth risk behaviors in this population, as well as other populations at risk.

  7. Methodology for benzodiazepine receptor binding assays at physiological temperature. Rapid change in equilibrium with falling temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dawson, R.M.


    Benzodiazepine receptors of rat cerebellum were assayed with [ 3 H]-labeled flunitrazepam at 37 0 C, and assays were terminated by filtration in a cold room according to one of three protocols: keeping each sample at 37 degrees C until ready for filtration, taking the batch of samples (30) into the cold room and filtering sequentially in the order 1-30, and taking the batch of 30 samples into the cold room and filtering sequentially in the order 30-1. the results for each protocol were substantially different from each other, indicating that rapid disruption of equilibrium occurred as the samples cooled in the cold room while waiting to be filtered. Positive or negative cooperativity of binding was apparent, and misleading effects of gamma-aminobutyric acid on the affinity of diazepam were observed, unless each sample was kept at 37 0 C until just prior to filtration

  8. Rapid estimation of the moment magnitude of large earthquake from static strain changes (United States)

    Itaba, S.


    The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake, of moment magnitude (Mw) 9.0, occurred on March 11, 2011. Based on the seismic wave, the prompt report of the magnitude which the Japan Meteorological Agency announced just after earthquake occurrence was 7.9, and it was considerably smaller than an actual value. On the other hand, using nine borehole strainmeters of Geological Survey of Japan, AIST, we estimated a fault model with Mw 8.7 for the earthquake on the boundary between the Pacific and North American plates. This model can be estimated about seven minutes after the origin time, and five minute after wave arrival. In order to grasp the magnitude of a great earthquake earlier, several methods are now being suggested to reduce the earthquake disasters including tsunami (e.g., Ohta et al., 2012). Our simple method of using strain steps is one of the strong methods for rapid estimation of the magnitude of great earthquakes.

  9. Rapid spread of complex change: a case study in inpatient palliative care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filipski Marta I


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Based on positive findings from a randomized controlled trial, Kaiser Permanente's national executive leadership group set an expectation that all Kaiser Permanente and partner hospitals would implement a consultative model of interdisciplinary, inpatient-based palliative care (IPC. Within one year, the number of IPC consultations program-wide increased almost tenfold from baseline, and the number of teams nearly doubled. We report here results from a qualitative evaluation of the IPC initiative after a year of implementation; our purpose was to understand factors supporting or impeding the rapid and consistent spread of a complex program. Methods Quality improvement study using a case study design and qualitative analysis of in-depth semi-structured interviews with 36 national, regional, and local leaders. Results Compelling evidence of impacts on patient satisfaction and quality of care generated 'pull' among adopters, expressed as a remarkably high degree of conviction about the value of the model. Broad leadership agreement gave rise to sponsorship and support that permeated the organization. A robust social network promoted knowledge exchange and built on an existing network with a strong interest in palliative care. Resource constraints, pre-existing programs of a different model, and ambiguous accountability for implementation impeded spread. Conclusions A complex, hospital-based, interdisciplinary intervention in a large health care organization spread rapidly due to a synergy between organizational 'push' strategies and grassroots-level pull. The combination of push and pull may be especially important when the organizational context or the practice to be spread is complex.

  10. Examination of rapid phase change in copper wires to improve material models and understanding of burst (United States)

    Olles, Joseph; Garasi, Christopher; Ball, J. Patrick


    Electrically-pulsed wires undergo multiple phase changes including a postulated metastable phase resulting in explosive wire growth. Simulations using the MHD approximation attempt to account for the governing physics, but lack the material properties (equations-of-state and electrical conductivity) to accurately predict the phase evolution of the exploding (bursting) wire. To explore the dynamics of an exploding copper wire (in water), we employ a digital micro-Schlieren streak photography technique. This imaging quantifies wire expansion and shock waves emitted from the wire during phase changes. Using differential voltage probes, a Rogowski coil, and timing fiducials, the phase change of the wire is aligned with electrical power and energy deposition. Time-correlated electrical diagnostics and imaging allow for detailed validation of MHD simulations, comparing observed phases with phase change details found in the material property descriptions. In addition to streak imaging, a long exposure image is taken to capture axial striations along the length of the wire. These images are used to compare with results from 3D MHD simulations which propose that these perturbations impact the rate of wire expansion and temporal change in phases. If successful, the experimental data will identify areas for improvement in the material property models, and modeling results will provide insight into the details of phase change in the wire with correlation to variations in the electrical signals.

  11. Dancing with Demographers. (United States)

    Robertson, Heather-Jane


    Demographic projections concerning the shortage of teachers in Canada, their pay scale, the feminization of teaching, the gender gap in salaries, and teacher autonomy have often been incorrect, or correct for the wrong reasons. Instead of relying on demographic predictions, teachers should contemplate who they really want to be professionally,…

  12. Rapid shifts in Atta cephalotes fungus-garden enzyme activity after a change in fungal substrate (Attini, Formicidae)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kooij, P W; Schiøtt, M; Boomsma, J J


    Fungus gardens of the basidiomycete Leucocoprinus gongylophorus sustain large colonies of leaf-cutting ants by degrading the plant material collected by the ants. Recent studies have shown that enzyme activity in these gardens is primarily targeted toward starch, proteins and the pectin matrix......, we measured the changes in enzyme activity after a controlled shift in fungal substrate offered to six laboratory colonies of Atta cephalotes. An ant diet consisting exclusively of grains of parboiled rice rapidly increased the activity of endo-proteinases and some of the pectinases attacking...... from the rice diet, relative to the leaf diet controls. Enzyme activity in the older, bottom sections of fungus gardens decreased, indicating a faster processing of the rice substrate compared to the leaf diet. These results suggest that leaf-cutting ant fungus gardens can rapidly adjust enzyme...

  13. Human adaptation responses to a rapidly changing Arctic: A research context for building system resilience (United States)

    Chapin, T.; Brinkman, T. J.


    Although human behavior accounts for more uncertainty in future trajectories in climate change than do biophysical processes, most climate-change research fails to include human actions in research design and implementation. This is well-illustrated in the Arctic. At the global scale, arctic processes strongly influence the strength of biophysical feedbacks between global human emissions and the rate of climate warming. However, most human actions in the arctic have little effect on these feedbacks, so research can contribute most effectively to reduction in arctic warming through improved understanding of the strength of arctic-global biophysical feedbacks, as in NASA's ABoVE program, and its effective communication to policy makers and the public. In contrast, at the local to regional scale within the arctic, human actions may influence the ecological and societal consequences of arctic warming, so research benefits from active stakeholder engagement in research design and implementation. Human communities and other stakeholders (government and NGOs) respond heterogeneously to socioeconomic and environmental change, so research that documents the range of historical and current adaptive responses to change provides insights on the resilience (flexibility of future options) of social-ecological processes in the arctic. Alaskan communities have attempted a range of adaptive responses to coastal erosion (e.g., seasonal migration, protection in place, relocation), wildfire (fire suppression to use of fire to manage wildlife habitat or landscape heterogeneity), declining sea ice (e.g., new hunting technology, sea ice observations and predictions), and changes in wildlife and fish availability (e.g., switch to harvest of alternative species, harvest times, or harvest locations). Research that draws on both traditional and western knowledge facilitates adaptation and predictions of the likely societal consequences of climate change in the Arctic. Effective inclusion of

  14. Rapid changes in corticospinal excitability during force field adaptation of human walking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barthélemy, Dorothy; Alain, S; Grey, Michael James


    measured changes in motor-evoked potentials (MEPs) elicited by transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) in the tibialis anterior (TA) muscle before, during, and after subjects adapted to a force field applied to the ankle joint during treadmill walking. When the force field assisted dorsiflexion during...... the swing phase of the step cycle, subjects adapted by decreasing TA EMG activity. In contrast, when the force field resisted dorsiflexion, they increased TA EMG activity. After the force field was removed, normal EMG activity gradually returned over the next 5 min of walking. TA MEPs elicited in the early...... be explained by changes in background TA EMG activity. These effects seemed specific to walking, as similar changes in TA MEP were not seen when seated subjects were tested during static dorsiflexion. These observations suggest that the corticospinal tract contributes to the adaptation of walking...

  15. Implications of rapid environmental change for polar bear behavior and sociality (United States)

    Atwood, Todd C.


    Historically, the Arctic sea ice has functioned as a structural barrier that has limited the nature and extent of interactions between humans and polar bears (Ursus maritimus). However, declining sea ice extent, brought about by global climate change, is increasing the potential for human-polar bear interactions. Loss of sea ice habitat is driving changes to both human and polar bear behavior—it is facilitating increases in human activities (e.g., offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction, trans-Arctic shipping, recreation), while also causing the displacement of bears from preferred foraging habitat (i.e., sea ice over biologically productive shallow) to land in some portions of their range. The end result of these changes is that polar bears are spending greater amounts of time in close proximity to people. Coexistence between humans and polar bears will require imposing mechanisms to manage further development, as well as mitigation strategies that reduce the burden to local communities.

  16. Unbounded boundaries and shifting baselines: Estuaries and coastal seas in a rapidly changing world (United States)

    Little, S.; Spencer, K. L.; Schuttelaars, H. M.; Millward, G. E.; Elliott, M.


    This Special Issue of Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science presents contributions from ECSA 55; an international symposium organised by the Estuarine and Coastal Sciences Association (ECSA) and Elsevier on the broad theme of estuaries and coastal seas in times of intense change. The objectives of the SI are to synthesise, hypothesise and illustrate the impacts of global change on estuaries and coastal seas through learning lessons from the past, discussing the current and forecasting for the future. It is highlighted here that establishing impacts and assigning cause to the many pressures of global change is and will continue to be a formidable challenge in estuaries and coastal seas, due in part to: (1) their complexity and unbounded nature; (2) difficulties distinguishing between human-induced changes and natural variations and; (3) multiple pressures and effects. The contributing authors have explored a number of these issues over a range of disciplines. The complexity and connectivity of estuaries and coastal seas have been investigated through studies of physicochemical and ecological components, whilst the human imprint on the environment has been identified through a series of predictive, contemporary, historical and palaeo approaches. The impact of human activities has been shown to occur over a range of spatial and temporal scales, requiring the development of integrated management approaches. These 30 articles provide an important contribution to our understanding and assessment of the impacts of global change. The authors highlight methods for essential management/mitigation of the consequences of global change and provide a set of directions, ideas and observations for future work. These include the need to consider: (1) the cumulative, synergistic and antagonistic effects of multiple pressures; (2) the importance of unbounded boundaries and connectivity across the aquatic continuum; (3) the value of combining cross-disciplinary palaeo, contemporary and

  17. Rapid morphological changes and loss of collagen following experimental acute colonic obstruction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krarup, Peter-Martin; Rehn, Martin; Sand-Dejmek, Janna


    Anastomosis of an acutely obstructed colon is associated with an increased risk of dehiscence. In experimental models, acute obstruction decreases collagen in the colonic wall, but the time course and propagation along the colon of the biochemical changes are unknown. Furthermore, there is a pauc......Anastomosis of an acutely obstructed colon is associated with an increased risk of dehiscence. In experimental models, acute obstruction decreases collagen in the colonic wall, but the time course and propagation along the colon of the biochemical changes are unknown. Furthermore...

  18. The demographic transition: an attempt to reformulate a population theory. (United States)

    Hofsten, E


    In this effort to reformulate the demographic transition theory, attention is directed to the following: Malthus and Karl Marx's criticism of his principle of population; the 1st stage of transition, i.e., high mortality, high fertility, and slow population growth; the 2nd stage of declining mortality; the 3rd stage of declining fertility; the 4th stage when mortality and fertility are both low; the growth potential; and the demographic transition in the 3rd world countries. The demographic transition theory has become popular among demographers, economists, historians, and others interested in studying the development of population over time since the end of World War 2. This interest has most likely been created by the anxiety over the population explosion in the 3rd world countries. Transition has made demographers believe that the period of rapid population growth will be automatically succeeded by a period of more or less constant population size. The question that arises is whether it is as simple as that. Demographic transition has to a great extent taken the place of Malthus' principle of population as a general theory of population. Demographic transition appears to describe in a satisfactory way the development of population which all currently industrialized countires have passed through, when going from the preindustrial to the present industrialized stage. The objectives to demographic transition as a general theory are considered. Some of the factors which have accounted for the decline in fertility in Europe may also apply to the 3rd world countries. 1 such factor is the effect of reduced infant and child mortality on the individual level. The fertility decline, caused by reduced infant and child mortality may, however, be of limited size. The great amount of unemployment in the 3rd world may affect fertility in a downward direction. The fertility decline in Europe occurred simultaneously with an industrialization process, which gradually covered the

  19. Long-distance gene flow and adaptation of forest trees to rapid climate change (United States)

    Kremer, Antoine; Ronce, Ophélie; Robledo-Arnuncio, Juan J; Guillaume, Frédéric; Bohrer, Gil; Nathan, Ran; Bridle, Jon R; Gomulkiewicz, Richard; Klein, Etienne K; Ritland, Kermit; Kuparinen, Anna; Gerber, Sophie; Schueler, Silvio


    Forest trees are the dominant species in many parts of the world and predicting how they might respond to climate change is a vital global concern. Trees are capable of long-distance gene flow, which can promote adaptive evolution in novel environments by increasing genetic variation for fitness. It is unclear, however, if this can compensate for maladaptive effects of gene flow and for the long-generation times of trees. We critically review data on the extent of long-distance gene flow and summarise theory that allows us to predict evolutionary responses of trees to climate change. Estimates of long-distance gene flow based both on direct observations and on genetic methods provide evidence that genes can move over spatial scales larger than habitat shifts predicted under climate change within one generation. Both theoretical and empirical data suggest that the positive effects of gene flow on adaptation may dominate in many instances. The balance of positive to negative consequences of gene flow may, however, differ for leading edge, core and rear sections of forest distributions. We propose future experimental and theoretical research that would better integrate dispersal biology with evolutionary quantitative genetics and improve predictions of tree responses to climate change. PMID:22372546

  20. Evolution and behavioural responses to human-induced rapid environmental change. (United States)

    Sih, Andrew; Ferrari, Maud C O; Harris, David J


    Almost all organisms live in environments that have been altered, to some degree, by human activities. Because behaviour mediates interactions between an individual and its environment, the ability of organisms to behave appropriately under these new conditions is crucial for determining their immediate success or failure in these modified environments. While hundreds of species are suffering dramatically from these environmental changes, others, such as urbanized and pest species, are doing better than ever. Our goal is to provide insights into explaining such variation. We first summarize the responses of some species to novel situations, including novel risks and resources, habitat loss/fragmentation, pollutants and climate change. Using a sensory ecology approach, we present a mechanistic framework for predicting variation in behavioural responses to environmental change, drawing from models of decision-making processes and an understanding of the selective background against which they evolved. Where immediate behavioural responses are inadequate, learning or evolutionary adaptation may prove useful, although these mechanisms are also constrained by evolutionary history. Although predicting the responses of species to environmental change is difficult, we highlight the need for a better understanding of the role of evolutionary history in shaping individuals' responses to their environment and provide suggestion for future work.

  1. Are plant species able to keep pace with the rapidly changing climate?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Cunze

    Full Text Available Future climate change is predicted to advance faster than the postglacial warming. Migration may therefore become a key driver for future development of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. For 140 European plant species we computed past range shifts since the last glacial maximum and future range shifts for a variety of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC scenarios and global circulation models (GCMs. Range shift rates were estimated by means of species distribution modelling (SDM. With process-based seed dispersal models we estimated species-specific migration rates for 27 dispersal modes addressing dispersal by wind (anemochory for different wind conditions, as well as dispersal by mammals (dispersal on animal's coat - epizoochory and dispersal by animals after feeding and digestion - endozoochory considering different animal species. Our process-based modelled migration rates generally exceeded the postglacial range shift rates indicating that the process-based models we used are capable of predicting migration rates that are in accordance with realized past migration. For most of the considered species, the modelled migration rates were considerably lower than the expected future climate change induced range shift rates. This implies that most plant species will not entirely be able to follow future climate-change-induced range shifts due to dispersal limitation. Animals with large day- and home-ranges are highly important for achieving high migration rates for many plant species, whereas anemochory is relevant for only few species.

  2. Rapid pacing results in changes in atrial but not in ventricular refractoriness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoonderwoerd, BA; Van Gelder, IC; Tieleman, RG; Bel, KJ; Crijns, HJGM

    It is well known that atrial tachycardia causes atrial electrical remodeling, characterized by shortening of atrial effective refractory periods (AERPs) and loss of physiological adaptation of AERP to rate. However, the nature and time course of changes in ventricular effective refractory periods

  3. Linguistic Mechanisms Cause Rapid Behavior Change. Part Two: How Linguistic Frames Affect Motivation (United States)

    Yeager, Joseph; Sommer, Linda


    Written and spoken language contains inherent mechanisms driving motivation. Accessing and modifying psycholinguistic mechanisms, links language frames to changes in behavior within the context of motivational profiling. For example, holding an object like an imported apple feels safe until one is informed it was grown in a toxic waste dump.…

  4. Exposure science in an age of rapidly changing climate: challenges and opportunities (United States)

    LaKind, Judy S; Overpeck, Jonathan; Breysse, Patrick N; Backer, Lorrie; Richardson, Susan D; Sobus, Jon; Sapkota, Amir; Upperman, Crystal R; Jiang, Chengsheng; Beard, C Ben; Brunkard, J M; Bell, Jesse E; Harris, Ryan; Chretien, Jean-Paul; Peltier, Richard E; Chew, Ginger L; Blount, Benjamin C


    Climate change is anticipated to alter the production, use, release, and fate of environmental chemicals, likely leading to increased uncertainty in exposure and human health risk predictions. Exposure science provides a key connection between changes in climate and associated health outcomes. The theme of the 2015 Annual Meeting of the International Society of Exposure Science—Exposures in an Evolving Environment—brought this issue to the fore. By directing attention to questions that may affect society in profound ways, exposure scientists have an opportunity to conduct “consequential science”—doing science that matters, using our tools for the greater good and to answer key policy questions, and identifying causes leading to implementation of solutions. Understanding the implications of changing exposures on public health may be one of the most consequential areas of study in which exposure scientists could currently be engaged. In this paper, we use a series of case studies to identify exposure data gaps and research paths that will enable us to capture the information necessary for understanding climate change-related human exposures and consequent health impacts. We hope that paper will focus attention on under-developed areas of exposure science that will likely have broad implications for public health. PMID:27485992

  5. Challenge and Response, Strategies for Survival in a Rapidly Changing Forest Products Industry (United States)

    Al Schuler; Craig Adair; Paul Winistorfer


    The U.S. has long been the world's largest market for wood and wood products, fueled by its demand for wood-frame housing. But forest product markets are changing, both in terns of where the products originate (domestically or abroad),and what products are being produced and consumed.

  6. Rapid species responses to changes in climate require stringent climate protection targets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van A.J.H.; Leemans, R.


    The Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change book consolidates the scientific findings of the Exeter conference and gives an account of the most recent developments on critical thresholds and key vulnerabilities of the climate system, impacts on human and natural systems, emission pathways and

  7. Rapid evolution of phenology during range expansion with recent climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lustenhouwer, N.; Wilschut, R.A.; Williams, J.L.; van der Putten, W.H.; Levine, J.M.


    Although climate warming is expected to make habitat beyond species’ current cold range edge suitable for future colonization, this new habitat may present an array of biotic or abiotic conditions not experienced within the current range. Species’ ability to shift their range with climate change may

  8. Rapid characterisation of vegetation structure to predict refugia and climate change impacts across a global biodiversity hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonius G T Schut

    Full Text Available Identification of refugia is an increasingly important adaptation strategy in conservation planning under rapid anthropogenic climate change. Granite outcrops (GOs provide extraordinary diversity, including a wide range of taxa, vegetation types and habitats in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR. However, poor characterization of GOs limits the capacity of conservation planning for refugia under climate change. A novel means for the rapid identification of potential refugia is presented, based on the assessment of local-scale environment and vegetation structure in a wider region. This approach was tested on GOs across the SWAFR. Airborne discrete return Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR data and Red Green and Blue (RGB imagery were acquired. Vertical vegetation profiles were used to derive 54 structural classes. Structural vegetation types were described in three areas for supervised classification of a further 13 GOs across the region. Habitat descriptions based on 494 vegetation plots on and around these GOs were used to quantify relationships between environmental variables, ground cover and canopy height. The vegetation surrounding GOs is strongly related to structural vegetation types (Kappa = 0.8 and to its spatial context. Water gaining sites around GOs are characterized by taller and denser vegetation in all areas. The strong relationship between rainfall, soil-depth, and vegetation structure (R(2 of 0.8-0.9 allowed comparisons of vegetation structure between current and future climate. Significant shifts in vegetation structural types were predicted and mapped for future climates. Water gaining areas below granite outcrops were identified as important putative refugia. A reduction in rainfall may be offset by the occurrence of deeper soil elsewhere on the outcrop. However, climate change interactions with fire and water table declines may render our conclusions conservative. The LiDAR-based mapping approach presented

  9. Demographic transitions in Europe and the world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willekens, Frans

    The demographic transition is a universal phenomenon. All regions of the world experience a change from high levels of mortality and fertility to low levels. The onset and pace of the demographic transition vary between regions and countries because of differences in timing of events and conditions

  10. Demographic transitions in Europe and the world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willekens, F.J.; Matthijs, K.; Neels, K.; Timmerman, C.; Haers, J.; Mels, S.


    Willekens, F. (2015) Demographic transitions in Europe and the world. In: K. Matthijs, K. Neels, C. Timmerman. J. Haers and S. Mels eds. Population change at work in Europe, the Middle-East and North Africa. Beyond the demographic divide. Ashgate (International Population Studies Series) pp. 13-44.

  11. Strain on the san andreas fault near palmdale, california: rapid, aseismic change. (United States)

    Savage, J C; Prescott, W H; Lisowski, M; King, N E


    Frequently repeated strain measurements near Palmdale, California, during the period from 1971 through 1980 indicate that, in addition to a uniform accumulation of right-lateral shear strain (engineering shear, 0.35 microradian per year) across the San Andreas fault, a 1-microstrain contraction perpendicular to the fault that accumulated gradually during the interval 1974 through 1978 was aseismically released between February and November 1979. Subsequently (November 1979 to March 1980), about half of the contraction was recovered. This sequence of strain changes can be explained in terms of south-southwestward migration of a slip event consisting of the south-southwestward movement of the upper crust on a horizontal detachment surface at a depth of 10 to 30 kilometers. The large strain change in 1979 corresponds to the passage of the slip event beneath the San Andreas fault.

  12. Currency and Competence of Occupational Therapists and Consumers with Rapidly Changing Technology


    Steel, Emily J.; Buchanan, Ricky; Layton, Natasha; Wilson, Erin


    Assistive technology was once a specialised field of practice, involving products designed for populations with specific impairments or functional goals. In Australia, occupational therapists have, at times, functioned as gatekeepers to public funding, prescribing products from a predefined list. An expanding range of accessible mainstream products available via international and online markets has changed the meaning and application of assistive technology for many people with disability. In...

  13. Symptoms and Mucosal Changes Stable During Rapid Increase of Pediatric Celiac Disease in Norway. (United States)

    Beitnes, Ann-Christin R; Vikskjold, Florin B; Jóhannesdóttir, Gróa B; Perminow, Gøri; Olbjørn, Christine; Andersen, Solveig N; Bentsen, Beint S; Rugtveit, Jarle; Størdal, Ketil


    We aimed to study whether the incidence of pediatric celiac disease (CD) in South-Eastern Norway changed from 2000 to 2010. We also examined whether there was a change in symptoms and histopathological morphology in the duodenal biopsies during the same period. In 3 hospitals in South-Eastern Norway, records from pediatric patients (0-14.9 years) diagnosed with CD during two 3-year periods (2000-2002 and 2008-2010) were reviewed. Only cases with a duodenal biopsy diagnosis of CD classified as Marsh grade 2 and 3a-c were included. Frequencies of symptoms, anthropometric data, and laboratory results were compared, in addition to re-examinations of histological sections from one of the hospitals. A total of 400 cases were diagnosed with a female to male ratio of 1.5:1. The incidence rate for 2000 to 2002 was 15.9 cases per 100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval 12.8-19.4), compared with 45.5 cases per 100,000 person-years during 2008 to 2010 (95% confidence interval 40.5-50.9), P symptoms and the distribution of histopathological changes were similar in the 2 periods, whereas weight z scores and hemoglobin levels were significantly lower in the first period. We found a 3-fold increase in the incidence rate for CD in the Norwegian pediatric population during the decade 2000 to 2010. Slightly higher weight and hemoglobin levels at diagnosis in the latter period may be due to improved CD awareness. Unaltered relative frequencies of symptoms and histopathological changes in the gut, however, suggest a true increase of CD in Norwegian children.

  14. Historical legacies accumulate to shape future biodiversity in an era of rapid global change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Essl, F.; Dullinger, S.; Rabitsch, W.; Hulme, P. E.; Pyšek, Petr; Wilson, J. R. U.; Richardson, D. M.


    Roč. 21, č. 5 (2015), s. 534-547 ISSN 1366-9516 R&D Projects: GA ČR GB14-36079G Grant - others:AV ČR(CZ) AP1002 Program:Akademická prémie - Praemium Academiae Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : biological invasions * global change * time lags Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 4.566, year: 2015

  15. Next Generation of Renewable Electricity Policy: How Rapid Change is Breaking Down Conventional Policy Categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Couture, T. D. [E3 Analytics, Berlin (Germany); Jacobs, D. [International Energy Transition (IET), Boston, MA (United States); Rickerson, W. [Meister Consultants Group, Boston, MA (United States); Healey, V. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)


    A number of policies have been used historically in order to stimulate the growth of the renewable electricity sector. This paper examines four of these policy instruments: competitive tendering, sometimes called renewable electricity auctions, feed-in tariffs, net metering and net billing, and tradable renewable energy certificates. In recent years, however, a number of changes to both market circumstances and to policy priorities have resulted in numerous policy innovations, including the emergence of policy hybrids. With no common language for these evolving policy mechanisms, policymakers have generally continued to use the same traditional policy labels, occasionally generating confusion as many of these new policies no longer look, or act, like their traditional predecessors. In reviewing these changes, this paper makes two separate but related claims: first, policy labels themselves are breaking down and evolving. As a result, policy comparisons that rely on the conventional labels may no longer be appropriate, or advisable. Second, as policymakers continue to adapt, we are in effect witnessing the emergence of the next generation of renewable electricity policies, a change that could have significant impacts on investment, as well as on market growth in both developed and developing countries.

  16. Object-based change detection in rapid urbanization regions with remotely sensed observations: a case study of Shenzhen, China (United States)

    He, Lihuang; Dong, Guihua; Wang, Wei-Min; Yang, Lijun; Liang, Hong


    China, the most populous country on Earth, has experienced rapid urbanization which is one of the main causes of many environmental and ecological problems. Therefore, the monitoring of rapid urbanization regions and the environment is of critical importance for their sustainable development. In this study, the object-based classification is employed to detect the change of land cover in Shenzhen, which is located in South China and has been urbanized rapidly in recent three decades. First, four Landsat TM images, which were acquired on 1990, 2000 and 2010, respectively, are selected from the image database. Atmospheric corrections are conducted on these images with improved dark-object subtraction technique and surface meteorological observations. Geometric correction is processed with ground control points derived from topographic maps. Second, a region growing multi-resolution segmentation and a soft nearest neighbour classifier are used to finish object-based classification. After analyzing the fraction of difference classes over time series, we conclude that the comparison of derived land cover classes with socio-economic statistics demonstrates the strong positive correlation between built-up classes and urban population as well as gross GDP and GDPs in second and tertiary industries. Two different mechanisms of urbanization, namely new land development and redevelopment, are revealed. Consequently, we found that, the districts of Shenzhen were urbanized through different mechanisms.

  17. Threshold and resilience management of coupled urbanization and water environmental system in the rapidly changing coastal region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yangfan; Li, Yi; Wu, Wei


    The concept of thresholds shows important implications for environmental and resource management. Here we derived potential landscape thresholds which indicated abrupt changes in water quality or the dividing points between exceeding and failing to meet national surface water quality standards for a rapidly urbanizing city on the Eastern Coast in China. The analysis of landscape thresholds was based on regression models linking each of the seven water quality variables to each of the six landscape metrics for this coupled land-water system. We found substantial and accelerating urban sprawl at the suburban areas between 2000 and 2008, and detected significant nonlinear relations between water quality and landscape pattern. This research demonstrated that a simple modeling technique could provide insights on environmental thresholds to support more-informed decision making in land use, water environmental and resilience management. - Graphical abstract: Fig. Threshold models and resilience management for water quality. Display Omitted - Highlights: • Coupling urbanization and water environmental system. • Developing threshold models of the coupled land-water systems. • Nonlinear relations between water quality variables and landscape metrics. • Enhancing resilience management of coastal rapid urbanization. - We develop environmental threshold models and provide their implications on resilience management for a coupled land-water system with rapid urbanization.

  18. Cone-beam computed tomography evaluation of dental, skeletal, and alveolar bone changes associated with bonded rapid maxillary expansion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Namrata Dogra


    Full Text Available Aims and Objectives: To evaluate skeletal changes in maxilla and its surrounding structures, changes in the maxillary dentition and maxillary alveolar bone changes produced by bonded rapid maxillary expansion (RME using cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT. Materials and Methods: The sample consisted of 10 patients (6 males and 4 females with age range 12 to 15 years treated with bonded RME. CBCT scans were performed at T1 (pretreatment and at T2 (immediately after expansion to evaluate the dental, skeletal, and alveolar bone changes. Results: RME treatment increased the overall skeletal parameters such as interorbital, zygomatic, nasal, and maxillary widths. Significant increases in buccal maxillary width was observed at first premolar, second premolar, and first molar level. There was a significant increase in arch width both on the palatal side and on the buccal side. Significant tipping of right and left maxillary first molars was seen. There were significant reductions in buccal bone plate thickness and increase in palatal bone plate thickness. Conclusions: Total expansion achieved with RME was a combination of dental, skeletal and alveolar bone changes. At the first molar level, 28.45% orthopedic, 16.03% alveolar bone bending, and 55.5% orthodontic changes were observed.

  19. Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter Leads to Rapid Heart Rate Variability Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Riediker


    Full Text Available Introduction: Heart Rate Variability (HRV reflects the adaptability of the heart to internal and external stimuli. Reduced HRV is a predictor of post-infarction mortality. We previously found in road maintenance workers HRV-increases several hours after exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5. This seemed to conflict with studies where PM-exposure acutely reduced HRV. We therefore assessed whether time from exposure to HRV-assessment could explain the differences observed.Methods: On five non-consecutive days, workers carried nephelometers providing 1-min-interval PM2.5-exposure. Five-min HRV-intervals of SDNN (Standard Deviation of Normal to Normal beat intervals and pNN50 (Percentage of the interval differences exceeding 50 ms were extracted from 24-h electrocardiograms (ECGs. Following 60 min PM2.5-exposure, changes in HRV-parameters were assessed during 120-min visually and by regression analysis with control for time at work, at home, and during the night using autoregressive integrating moving average (ARIMA models to account for autocorrelation of the time-series. Additional controls included changing the time windows and including body mass index (BMI and age in the models.Result: Pattern analysis of 12,669 data points showed high modulation of mean, standard deviation (SD, and time trend of HRV (SDNN and pNN50 at low, and much reduced modulation at high PM2.5-exposures. The time trend following exposure was highly symmetrical, resembling a funnel plot. Regression analysis showed significant associations of decreasing SDNN and pNN50 (average, SD, and absolute value of time trend with increasing PM2.5-exposure, which remained significant when controlling for activity phases. Changing time windows did not change the pattern of response. Including BMI and age did not change the results.Conclusions: The reduced modulation of HRV following PM2.5-exposure is striking. It suggests strong interference with homeostatic controls. Such an

  20. Rapid behavioural gregarization in the desert locust, Schistocerca gregaria entails synchronous changes in both activity and attraction to conspecifics. (United States)

    Rogers, Stephen M; Cullen, Darron A; Anstey, Michael L; Burrows, Malcolm; Despland, Emma; Dodgson, Tim; Matheson, Tom; Ott, Swidbert R; Stettin, Katja; Sword, Gregory A; Simpson, Stephen J


    Desert Locusts can change reversibly between solitarious and gregarious phases, which differ considerably in behaviour, morphology and physiology. The two phases show many behavioural differences including both overall levels of activity and the degree to which they are attracted or repulsed by conspecifics. Solitarious locusts perform infrequent bouts of locomotion characterised by a slow walking pace, groom infrequently and actively avoid other locusts. Gregarious locusts are highly active with a rapid walking pace, groom frequently and are attracted to conspecifics forming cohesive migratory bands as nymphs and/or flying swarms as adults. The sole factor driving the onset of gregarization is the presence of conspecifics. In several previous studies concerned with the mechanism underlying this transformation we have used an aggregate measure of behavioural phase state, Pgreg, derived from logistic regression analysis, which combines and weights several behavioural variables to characterise solitarious and gregarious behaviour. Using this approach we have analysed the time course of behavioural change, the stimuli that induce gregarization and the key role of serotonin in mediating the transformation. Following a recent critique that suggested that using Pgreg may confound changes in general activity with genuine gregarization we have performed a meta-analysis examining the time course of change in the individual behaviours that we use to generate Pgreg. We show that the forced crowding of solitarious locusts, tactile stimulation of the hind femora, and the short-term application of serotonin each induce concerted changes in not only locomotion-related variables but also grooming frequency and attraction to other locusts towards those characteristic of long-term gregarious locusts. This extensive meta-analysis supports and extends our previous conclusions that solitarious locusts undergo a rapid behavioural gregarization upon receiving appropriate stimulation for

  1. The Boltysh crater record of rapid vegetation change during the Dan-C2 hyperthermal event. (United States)

    Jolley, D. W.; Daly, R.; Gilmour, I.; Gilmour, M.; Kelley, S. P.


    Analysis of a cored borehole drilled through the sedimentary fill of the 24km wide Boltysh meteorite crater, Ukraine has yielded a unique, high resolution record spanning algae records. These records reflect environmental change from the K/Pg1 to the post Dan-C2 Danian. Leading into the CIE, warm temperate gymnosperm - angiosperm - fern communities are replaced by precipitation limited (winterwet) plant communities within the negative CIE. Winterwet plant communities dominate the negative CIE, but are replaced within the isotope recovery stage by warm temperate floras. These in turn give way to cooler temperate floras in the post positive CIE section of the uppermost crater fill. The distribution of temperate taxa about the negative CIE represents the broadest scale of oscillatory variation in the palynofloras. Shorter frequency oscillations are evident from diversity and botanical group distributions reflecting changes in moisture availability over several thousand years. Detailed analysis of variability within one of these oscillations records plant community cyclicity across the inception of the negative CIE. This short term cyclicity provides evidence that the replacement of warm termperate by winterwet floras occurred in a stepwise manner at the negative CIE suggesting cumulative atmospheric forcing. At <1mm scale, lamination within the negative CIE showed no obvious lithological or colour differences, and are not seasonal couplets. However, palynofloral analysis of laminations from within the negative CIE has yielded evidence of annual variation identifying the potential for recoding changes in 'paleoweather' across a major hyperthermal event. [1] Jolley, D. W. et al. (2010) Geology 38, 835-838.

  2. High Resolution Topography of Age-Related Changes in Non-Rapid Eye Movement Sleep Electroencephalography.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kate E Sprecher

    Full Text Available Sleeping brain activity reflects brain anatomy and physiology. The aim of this study was to use high density (256 channel electroencephalography (EEG during sleep to characterize topographic changes in sleep EEG power across normal aging, with high spatial resolution. Sleep was evaluated in 92 healthy adults aged 18-65 years old using full polysomnography and high density EEG. After artifact removal, spectral power density was calculated for standard frequency bands for all channels, averaged across the NREM periods of the first 3 sleep cycles. To quantify topographic changes with age, maps were generated of the Pearson's coefficient of the correlation between power and age at each electrode. Significant correlations were determined by statistical non-parametric mapping. Absolute slow wave power declined significantly with increasing age across the entire scalp, whereas declines in theta and sigma power were significant only in frontal regions. Power in fast spindle frequencies declined significantly with increasing age frontally, whereas absolute power of slow spindle frequencies showed no significant change with age. When EEG power was normalized across the scalp, a left centro-parietal region showed significantly less age-related decline in power than the rest of the scalp. This partial preservation was particularly significant in the slow wave and sigma bands. The effect of age on sleep EEG varies substantially by region and frequency band. This non-uniformity should inform the design of future investigations of aging and sleep. This study provides normative data on the effect of age on sleep EEG topography, and provides a basis from which to explore the mechanisms of normal aging as well as neurodegenerative disorders for which age is a risk factor.

  3. Coastal regime shifts: rapid responses of coastal wetlands to changes in mangrove cover. (United States)

    Guo, Hongyu; Weaver, Carolyn; Charles, Sean P; Whitt, Ashley; Dastidar, Sayantani; D'Odorico, Paolo; Fuentes, Jose D; Kominoski, John S; Armitage, Anna R; Pennings, Steven C


    Global changes are causing broad-scale shifts in vegetation communities worldwide, including coastal habitats where the borders between mangroves and salt marsh are in flux. Coastal habitats provide numerous ecosystem services of high economic value, but the consequences of variation in mangrove cover are poorly known. We experimentally manipulated mangrove cover in large plots to test a set of linked hypotheses regarding the effects of changes in mangrove cover. We found that changes in mangrove cover had strong effects on microclimate, plant community, sediment accretion, soil organic content, and bird abundance within 2 yr. At higher mangrove cover, wind speed declined and light interception by vegetation increased. Air and soil temperatures had hump-shaped relationships with mangrove cover. The cover of salt marsh plants decreased at higher mangrove cover. Wrack cover, the distance that wrack was distributed from the water's edge, and sediment accretion decreased at higher mangrove cover. Soil organic content increased with mangrove cover. Wading bird abundance decreased at higher mangrove cover. Many of these relationships were non-linear, with the greatest effects when mangrove cover varied from zero to intermediate values, and lesser effects when mangrove cover varied from intermediate to high values. Temporal and spatial variation in measured variables often peaked at intermediate mangrove cover, with ecological consequences that are largely unexplored. Because different processes varied in different ways with mangrove cover, the "optimum" cover of mangroves from a societal point of view will depend on which ecosystem services are most desired. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  4. Alveolar bone changes after rapid maxillary expansion with tooth-born appliances: a systematic review. (United States)

    Lo Giudice, Antonino; Barbato, Ersilia; Cosentino, Leandro; Ferraro, Claudia Maria; Leonardi, Rosalia


    During rapid maxillary expansion (RME), heavy forces are transmitted to the maxilla by the anchored teeth causing buccal inclination and buccal bone loss of posterior teeth. To systematically review the literature in order to investigate whether RME causes periodontal sequelae, assessed by cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT). Fifteen electronic databases and reference lists of studies were searched up to March 2017. To be included in the systematic review, articles must be human studies on growing subjects, with transversal maxillary deficiency treated with RME and with assessment of buccal bone loss by CBCT images. Only randomized and non-randomized trials were included. Two authors independently performed study selection, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment. Study characteristics (study design, sample size, age, sex, skeletal maturity, type of appliance, daily activation, evaluated linear measurements, observation period, CBCT settings), and study outcomes (loss of buccal bone thickness and marginal bone) were reported according to the PRISMA statement. On the basis of the applied inclusion criteria, only six articles, three randomized clinical trials and three controlled clinical trials were included. An individual analysis of the selected articles was undertaken. The risks of bias of the six trials were scored as medium to low. The results of the present systematic review are based on a limited number of studies and only one study included a control group. In all considered studies, significant loss of buccal bone thickness and marginal bone level were observed in anchored teeth, following RME. Further prospective studies correlating the radiological data of bone loss to the periodontal soft tissues reaction after RME are required. A preliminary evaluation of the patient-related risk factors for RR may be advisable when considering to administering RME. This systematic review was registered in the National Institute of Health Research database with an

  5. Laboratory Demographics Lookup Tool (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This website provides demographic information about laboratories, including CLIA number, facility name and address, where the laboratory testing is performed, the...

  6. Currency and Competence of Occupational Therapists and Consumers with Rapidly Changing Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily J. Steel


    Full Text Available Assistive technology was once a specialised field of practice, involving products designed for populations with specific impairments or functional goals. In Australia, occupational therapists have, at times, functioned as gatekeepers to public funding, prescribing products from a predefined list. An expanding range of accessible mainstream products available via international and online markets has changed the meaning and application of assistive technology for many people with disability. In the policy context of consumer choice and cost-effectiveness, have occupational therapists been left behind? This paper describes the change in context for access to assistive technology resulting in expanded possibilities for participation and inclusion. A case study of environmental control systems is used to explore the overlap of mainstream and assistive products and the funding and services to support their uptake. The analysis describes a future policy and practice context in which assistive technology includes a spectrum of products decoupled from access to independent advice and support services. A broader scope of occupational therapy practice has potential to enhance the occupational rights of people with disability and the efficiency and effectiveness of assistive technology provision.

  7. Changes to dryland rainfall result in rapid moss mortality and altered soil fertility (United States)

    Reed, Sasha C.; Coe, Kirsten K.; Sparks, Jed P.; Housman, David C.; Zelikova, Tamara J.; Belnap, Jayne


    Arid and semi-arid ecosystems cover ~40% of Earth’s terrestrial surface, but we know little about how climate change will affect these widespread landscapes. Like many drylands, the Colorado Plateau in southwestern United States is predicted to experience elevated temperatures and alterations to the timing and amount of annual precipitation. We used a factorial warming and supplemental rainfall experiment on the Colorado Plateau to show that altered precipitation resulted in pronounced mortality of the widespread moss Syntrichia caninervis. Increased frequency of 1.2 mm summer rainfall events reduced moss cover from ~25% of total surface cover to fertility. Mosses are important members in many dryland ecosystems and the community changes observed here reveal how subtle modifications to climate can affect ecosystem structure and function on unexpectedly short timescales. Moreover, mortality resulted from increased precipitation through smaller, more frequent events, underscoring the importance of precipitation event size and timing, and highlighting our inadequate understanding of relationships between climate and ecosystem function in drylands.

  8. Tensile behavior change depending on the microstructure of a Fe-Cu alloy produced from rapidly solidified powder

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kakisawa, Hideki; Minagawa, Kazumi; Halada, Kohmei


    The relationship between consolidating temperature and the tensile behavior of iron alloy produced from Fe-Cu rapidly solidified powder is investigated. Fe-Cu powder fabricated by high-pressure water atomization was consolidated by heavy rolling at 873-1273 K. Microstructural changes were observed and tensile behavior was examined. Tensile behavior varies as the consolidating temperature changes, and these temperature-dependent differences depend on the morphology of the microstructure on the order of micrometers. The sample consolidated at 873 K shows a good strength/elongation balance because the powder microstructure and primary powder boundaries are maintained. The samples consolidated at the higher temperatures have a microstructure of recrystallized grains, and these recrystallized samples show the conventional relationship between tensile behavior and grain size in ordinal bulk materials

  9. The role of the Asian winter monsoon in the rapid propagation of abrupt climate changes during the last deglaciation (United States)

    Chu, Guoqiang; Sun, Qing; Zhu, Qingzeng; Shan, Yabing; Shang, Wenyu; Ling, Yuan; Su, Youliang; Xie, Manman; Wang, Xishen; Liu, Jiaqi


    High-resolution temperature records spanning the last deglaciation from low latitudes are scarce; however, they are important for understanding the rapid propagation of abrupt climate events throughout the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics. Here, we present a branched GDGTs-based temperature reconstruction from the sediments of Maar Lake Huguangyan in tropical China. The record reveals that the mean temperature during the Oldest Dryas was 17.8 °C, which was followed by a two-step increase of 2-3 °C to the Bølling-Allerød, a decrease to 19.8 °C during the Younger Dryas, and a rapid warming at the onset of the Holocene. The Oldest Dryas was about 2 °C warmer than the Younger Dryas. The reconstructed temperature was weighted towards the wintertime since the lake is monomictic and the mixing process in winter supplies nutrients from the lake bottom to the entire water column, greatly promoting biological productivity. In addition, the winter-biased temperature changes observed in the study are more distinctive than the summer-biased temperature records from extra-tropical regions of East Asia. This implies that the temperature decreases during abrupt climatic events were mainly a winter phenomenon. Within the limits of the dating uncertainties, the broadly similar pattern of winter-weighted temperature change observed in both tropical Lake Huguangyan and in Greenland ice cores indicates the occurrence of tightly-coupled interactions between high latitude ice sheets and land areas in the tropics. We suggest that the winter monsoon (especially cold surges) could play an important role in the rapid transmission of the temperature signal from the Arctic to the tropics.

  10. Extreme Temperature Exceedances Change more Rapidly Under Future Warming in Regions of non-Gaussian Short Temperature Distribution Tails (United States)

    Loikith, P. C.; Neelin, J. D.; Meyerson, J.


    Regions of shorter-than-Gaussian warm and cold side temperature distribution tails are shown to occur in spatially coherent patterns in the current climate. Under such conditions, warming may be manifested in more complex ways than if the underlying distribution were close to Gaussian. For example, under a uniform warm shift, the simplest prototype for future warming, a location with a short warm side tail would experience a greater increase in extreme warm exceedances compared to if the distribution were Gaussian. Similarly, for a location with a short cold side tail, a uniform warm shift would result in a rapid decrease in extreme cold exceedances. Both scenarios carry major societal and environmental implications including but not limited to negative impacts on human and ecosystem health, agriculture, and the economy. It is therefore important for climate models to be able to realistically reproduce short tails in simulations of historical climate in order to boost confidence in projections of future temperature extremes. Overall, climate models contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project capture many of the principal observed regions of short tails. This suggests the underlying dynamics and physics occur on scales resolved by the models, and helps build confidence in model projections of extremes. Furthermore, most GCMs show more rapid changes in exceedances of extreme temperature thresholds in regions of short tails. Results therefore suggest that the shape of the tails of the underlying temperature distribution is an indicator of how rapidly a location will experience changes to extreme temperature occurrence under future warming.

  11. Rapid changes in ice core gas records - Part 1: On the accuracy of methane synchronisation of ice cores (United States)

    Köhler, P.


    Methane synchronisation is a concept to align ice core records during rapid climate changes of the Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events onto a common age scale. However, atmospheric gases are recorded in ice cores with a log-normal-shaped age distribution probability density function, whose exact shape depends mainly on the accumulation rate on the drilling site. This age distribution effectively shifts the mid-transition points of rapid changes in CH4 measured in situ in ice by about 58% of the width of the age distribution with respect to the atmospheric signal. A minimum dating uncertainty, or artefact, in the CH4 synchronisation is therefore embedded in the concept itself, which was not accounted for in previous error estimates. This synchronisation artefact between Greenland and Antarctic ice cores is for GRIP and Byrd less than 40 years, well within the dating uncertainty of CH4, and therefore does not calls the overall concept of the bipolar seesaw into question. However, if the EPICA Dome C ice core is aligned via CH4 to NGRIP this synchronisation artefact is in the most recent unified ice core age scale (Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2010) for LGM climate conditions of the order of three centuries and might need consideration in future gas chronologies.

  12. Rapid breeding and varietal replacement are critical to adaptation of cropping systems in the developing world to climate change. (United States)

    Atlin, Gary N; Cairns, Jill E; Das, Biswanath


    Plant breeding is a key mechanism for adaptation of cropping systems to climate change. Much discussion of breeding for climate change focuses on genes with large effects on heat and drought tolerance, but phenology and stress tolerance are highly polygenic. Adaptation will therefore mainly result from continually adjusting allele frequencies at many loci through rapid-cycle breeding that delivers a steady stream of incrementally improved cultivars. This will require access to elite germplasm from other regions, shortened breeding cycles, and multi-location testing systems that adequately sample the target population of environments. The objective of breeding and seed systems serving smallholder farmers should be to ensure that they use varieties developed in the last 10 years. Rapid varietal turnover must be supported by active dissemination of new varieties, and active withdrawal of obsolete ones. Commercial seed systems in temperate regions achieve this through competitive seed markets, but in the developing world, most crops are not served by competitive commercial seed systems, and many varieties date from the end of the Green Revolution (the late 1970s, when the second generation of modern rice and wheat varieties had been widely adopted). These obsolete varieties were developed in a climate different than today's, placing farmers at risk. To reduce this risk, a strengthened breeding system is needed, with freer international exchange of elite varieties, short breeding cycles, high selection intensity, wide-scale phenotyping, and accurate selection supported by genomic technology. Governments need to incentivize varietal release and dissemination systems to continuously replace obsolete varieties.

  13. Structural Changes in Stx1 Engineering Monoclonal Antibody Improves Its Functionality as Diagnostic Tool for a Rapid Latex Agglutination Test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Luz


    Full Text Available Stx1 toxin is one of the AB5 toxins of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC responsible for foodborne intoxication during outbreaks. The single-chain variable fragment (scFv is the most common recombinant antibody format; it consists of both variable chains connected by a peptide linker with conserved specificity and affinity for antigen. The drawbacks of scFv production in bacteria are the heterologous expression, conformation and stability of the molecule, which could change the affinity for the antigen. In this work, we obtained a stable and functional scFv-Stx1 in bacteria, starting from IgG produced by hybridoma cells. After structural modifications, i.e., change in protein orientation, vector and linker, its solubility for expression in bacteria was increased as well as the affinity for its antigen, demonstrated by a scFv dissociation constant (KD of 2.26 × 10−7 M. Also, it was able to recognize purified Stx1 and cross-reacted with Stx2 toxin by ELISA (Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay, and detected 88% of Stx1-producing strains using a rapid latex agglutination test. Thus, the scFv fragment obtained in the present work is a bacteria-produced tool for use in a rapid diagnosis test, providing an alternative for STEC diagnosis.

  14. Post-bleaching coral community change on southern Maldivian reefs: is there potential for rapid recovery? (United States)

    Perry, C. T.; Morgan, K. M.


    Given the severity of the 2016 global bleaching event, there are major questions about how quickly reef communities will recover. Here, we explore the ecological and physical structural changes that occurred across five atoll interior reefs in the southern Maldives using data collected at 6 and 12 months post-bleaching. Following initial severe coral mortality, further minor coral mortality had occurred by 12 months post-bleaching, and coral cover is now low (transitions to rubble-dominated states will occur in the near future. Juvenile coral densities in shallow fore-reef habitats are also exceptionally low (<6 individuals m-2), well below those measured 9-12 months following the 1998 bleaching event, and below recovery thresholds identified on other Indian Ocean reefs. Our findings suggest that the physical structure of these reefs will need to decline further before effective recruitment and recovery can begin.

  15. Modification of a whole room indirect calorimeter for measurement of rapid changes in energy expenditure. (United States)

    Sun, M; Reed, G W; Hill, J O


    Whole room indirect calorimeters are among the most accurate devices for measurement of human energy expenditure and have provided useful data about determinants of total daily energy expenditure. However, a limitation of whole room indirect calorimeters has been the inability to detect acute (usually calorimeter (respiratory chamber) to allow accurate measurement of energy expenditure over time periods as short as 1 min. The modifications involve changes in the system design and use of signal processing techniques. With these modifications, we can measure energy expenditure in 1-min intervals throughout the day. This allows accurate study of the acute effects of food, exercise, or drugs on energy expenditure in subjects moving freely inside the respiratory chamber. The ability to use respiratory chambers for these types of studies should improve our understanding of how body weight is regulated.

  16. Fluvial response to the last Holocene rapid climate change in the Northwestern Mediterranean coastlands (United States)

    Degeai, Jean-Philippe; Devillers, Benoît; Blanchemanche, Philippe; Dezileau, Laurent; Oueslati, Hamza; Tillier, Margaux; Bohbot, Hervé


    The variability of fluvial activity in the Northwestern Mediterranean coastal lowlands and its relationship with modes of climate change were analysed from the late 9th to the 18th centuries CE. Geochemical analyses were undertaken from a lagoonal sequence and surrounding sediments in order to track the fluvial inputs into the lagoon. An index based on the K/S and Rb/S ratios was used to evidence the main periods of fluvial activity. This index reveals that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) was a drier period characterized by a lower fluvial activity, while the Little Ice Age (LIA) was a wetter period with an increase of the river dynamics. Three periods of higher than average fluvial activity were evidenced at the end of the first millennium CE (ca. 900-950 cal yr CE), in the first half of the second millennium CE (ca. 1150-1550 cal yr CE), and during the 1600s-1700s CE (ca. 1650-1800 cal yr CE). The comparison of these fluvial periods with other records of riverine or lacustrine floods in Spain, Italy, and South of France seems to indicate a general increase in fluvial and flood patterns in the Northwestern Mediterranean in response to the climate change from the MCA to the LIA, although some episodes of flooding are not found in all records. Besides, the phases of higher than average fluvial dynamics are in good agreement with the North Atlantic cold events evidenced from records of ice-rafted debris. The evolution of fluvial activity in the Northwestern Mediterranean coastlands during the last millennium could have been driven by atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns.

  17. Logarithmic superposition of force response with rapid length changes in relaxed porcine airway smooth muscle. (United States)

    Ijpma, G; Al-Jumaily, A M; Cairns, S P; Sieck, G C


    We present a systematic quantitative analysis of power-law force relaxation and investigate logarithmic superposition of force response in relaxed porcine airway smooth muscle (ASM) strips in vitro. The term logarithmic superposition describes linear superposition on a logarithmic scale, which is equivalent to multiplication on a linear scale. Additionally, we examine whether the dynamic response of contracted and relaxed muscles is dominated by cross-bridge cycling or passive dynamics. The study shows the following main findings. For relaxed ASM, the force response to length steps of varying amplitude (0.25-4% of reference length, both lengthening and shortening) are well-fitted with power-law functions over several decades of time (10⁻² to 10³ s), and the force response after consecutive length changes is more accurately fitted assuming logarithmic superposition rather than linear superposition. Furthermore, for sinusoidal length oscillations in contracted and relaxed muscles, increasing the oscillation amplitude induces greater hysteresivity and asymmetry of force-length relationships, whereas increasing the frequency dampens hysteresivity but increases asymmetry. We conclude that logarithmic superposition is an important feature of relaxed ASM, which may facilitate a more accurate prediction of force responses in the continuous dynamic environment of the respiratory system. In addition, the single power-function response to length changes shows that the dynamics of cross-bridge cycling can be ignored in relaxed muscle. The similarity in response between relaxed and contracted states implies that the investigated passive dynamics play an important role in both states and should be taken into account.

  18. Long-Term Soil Experiments: A Key to Managing Earth's Rapidly Changing Critical Zones (United States)

    Richter, D., Jr.


    In a few decades, managers of Earth's Critical Zones (biota, humans, land, and water) will be challenged to double food and fiber production and diminish adverse effects of management on the wider environment. To meet these challenges, an array of scientific approaches is being used to increase understanding of Critical Zone functioning and evolution, and one amongst these approaches needs to be long-term soil field studies to move us beyond black boxing the belowground Critical Zone, i.e., to further understanding of processes driving changes in the soil environment. Long-term soil experiments (LTSEs) provide direct observations of soil change and functioning across time scales of decades, data critical for biological, biogeochemical, and environmental assessments of sustainability; for predictions of soil fertility, productivity, and soil-environment interactions; and for developing models at a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Unfortunately, LTSEs globally are not in a good state, and they take years to mature, are vulnerable to loss, and even today remain to be fully inventoried. Of the 250 LTSEs in a web-based network, results demonstrate that soils and belowground Critical Zones are highly dynamic and responsive to human management. The objective of this study is to review the contemporary state of LTSEs and consider how they contribute to three open questions: (1) can soils sustain a doubling of food production in the coming decades without further impinging on the wider environment, (2) how do soils interact with the global C cycle, and (3) how can soil management establish greater control over nutrient cycling. While LTSEs produce significant data and perspectives for all three questions, there is on-going need and opportunity for reviews of the long-term soil-research base, for establishment of an efficiently run network of LTSEs aimed at sustainability and improving management control over C and nutrient cycling, and for research teams that

  19. Rapid realist review of the evidence: achieving lasting change when mental health rehabilitation staff undertake recovery-oriented training. (United States)

    Gee, Melanie; Bhanbhro, Sadiq; Cook, Sarah; Killaspy, Helen


    The aim of this study was to identify the factors contributing to lasting change in practice following a recovery-based training intervention for inpatient mental health rehabilitation staff. Staff training may help nurses and other staff groups in inpatient mental health rehabilitative settings to increase their recovery-oriented practice. There are no published reviews on the effectiveness of such training and few long-term evaluations. This review informed a realist evaluation of a specific intervention (GetREAL). Rapid realist review methodology was used to generate and prioritize programme theories. ASSIA, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Medline, PsycINFO, Scopus, Web of Science and grey literature searches were performed in September 2014-March 2015 with no date restrictions. Stakeholders suggested further documents. GetREAL project documentation was consulted. Programme theory development took place iteratively with literature identification. Stakeholders validated and prioritized emerging programme theories and the prioritized theories were refined using literature case studies. Fifty-one relevant documents fed into 49 programme theories articulating seven mechanisms for lasting change. Prioritized mechanisms were: staff receptiveness to change; and staff feeling encouraged, motivated and supported by colleagues and management to change. Seven programme theories were prioritized and refined using data from four case studies. Lasting change can be facilitated by collaborative action planning, regular collaborative meetings, appointing a change agent, explicit management endorsement and prioritization and modifying organizational structures. Conversely, a challenging organizational climate, or a prevalence of 'change fatigue', may block change. Pre-intervention exploration may help identify any potential barriers to embedding recovery in the organizational culture. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Rapid environmental change over the past decade revealed by isotopic analysis of the California mussel in the northeast Pacific.

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    Catherine A Pfister

    Full Text Available The anthropogenic input of fossil fuel carbon into the atmosphere results in increased carbon dioxide (CO(2 into the oceans, a process that lowers seawater pH, decreases alkalinity and can inhibit the production of shell material. Corrosive water has recently been documented in the northeast Pacific, along with a rapid decline in seawater pH over the past decade. A lack of instrumentation prior to the 1990s means that we have no indication whether these carbon cycle changes have precedence or are a response to recent anthropogenic CO(2 inputs. We analyzed stable carbon and oxygen isotopes (δ(13C, δ(18O of decade-old California mussel shells (Mytilus californianus in the context of an instrumental seawater record of the same length. We further compared modern shells to shells from 1000 to 1340 years BP and from the 1960s to the present and show declines in the δ(13C of modern shells that have no historical precedent. Our finding of decline in another shelled mollusk (limpet and our extensive environmental data show that these δ(13C declines are unexplained by changes to the coastal food web, upwelling regime, or local circulation. Our observed decline in shell δ(13C parallels other signs of rapid changes to the nearshore carbon cycle in the Pacific, including a decline in pH that is an order of magnitude greater than predicted by an equilibrium response to rising atmospheric CO(2, the presence of low pH water throughout the region, and a record of a similarly steep decline in δ(13C in algae in the Gulf of Alaska. These unprecedented changes and the lack of a clear causal variable underscores the need for better quantifying carbon dynamics in nearshore environments.

  1. Has the Pattern of Practice in the Prescription of Radiotherapy for the Palliation of Thoracic Symptoms Changed Between 1999 and 2006 at the Rapid Response Radiotherapy Program?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fairchild, Alysa; Goh, Philiz; Sinclair, Emily; Barnes, Elizabeth A.; Ghosh, Sunita; Danjoux, Cyril; Barbera, Lisa; Tsao, May; Chow, Edward


    Purpose: Eleven randomized controlled trials (RCT) comparing various radiotherapy (RT) schedules for locally advanced lung cancer published since 1991 found no difference in palliation of intrathoracic symptoms. The most commonly prescribed schedule by Canadian Radiation Oncologists (RO) (20 Gy in five fractions [20 Gy/5]), when first evaluated versus 10 Gy/1 in a 2002 RCT, showed a significant survival benefit. A subsequent RCT assessing 20 Gy/5 found worse survival versus 16 Gy/2. This study examines whether the RT prescription for lung cancer palliation in the Rapid Response Radiotherapy Program (RRRP) has changed over time. Methods and Materials: Chart review was conducted for patients treated with palliative thoracic RT across three periods (1999-2006). Patient demographics, tumor, treatment, and organizational factors were analyzed descriptively. Chi-square test was used to detect differences in proportions between unordered categorical variables. Continuous variables were tested using analysis of variance. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of RT schedule prescribed. Results: A total of 117 patients received 121 courses of palliative thoracic RT. The most common dose (20 Gy/5) comprised 65% of courses in 1999, 68% in 2003, and 60% in 2005-2006 (p = 0.76). The next most common dose was 30 Gy/10 (13%). Overall, the median survival was 14.9 months, independent of RT schedule (p = 0.68). Multivariate analysis indicated palliative chemotherapy and certification year of RO were significant predictors of prescription of 20 Gy/5. Conclusion: RT schedule for palliation of intrathoracic symptoms did not mirror the results of sequential, conflicting RCTs, suggesting that factors other than the literature influenced practice patterns in palliative thoracic RT

  2. Changes in rates of capture and demographics of Myotis septentrionalis (Northern Long-eared Bat) in Western Virginia before and after onset of white-nose syndrome (United States)

    Reynolds, Richard J.; Powers, Karen E.; Orndorff, Wil; Ford, W. Mark; Hobson, Christopher S.


    Documenting the impacts of white-nose syndrome (WNS) on demographic patterns, such as annual survivorship and recruitment, is important to understanding the extirpation or possible stabilization and recovery of species over time. To document demographic impacts of WNS on Myotis septentrionalis (Northern Long-eared Bat), we mistnetted at sites in western Virginia where Northern Long-eared Bats were captured in summer before (1990–2009) and after (2011–2013) the onset of WNS. Our mean capture rates per hour, adjusted for area of net and sampling duration, declined significantly from 0.102 bats/ m2/h before WNS to 0.005 bats/m2/h (-95.1%) by 2013. We noted a time lag in the rate of decline between published data based on bats captured during the swarming season and our summer mist-netting captures from the same geographic area. Although proportions of pregnant or lactating females did not vary statistically in samples obtained before and after the onset of WNS, the proportion of juvenile bats declined significantly (-76.7%), indicating that the viability of Northern Long-eared Bats in western Virginia is tenuous.

  3. A retrospective case report on demographic changes of learners at a school for children with Autism Spectrum Disorder in the Gauteng Province

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    Sumari van Biljon


    Full Text Available Limited research has been published about the demographic characteristics of children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD in South Africa. Describing the profiles of learners from a school for children with ASD may contribute to local knowledge in the field. A retrospective comparative design was utilised to compare the demographic characteristics of learners over two time intervals: 1992-2002 (Group 1, n=32 and 2003-2014 (Group 2, n=109. A total of 141 historical admission records in paper-based files were reviewed. Results indicated that there is a large male gender bias (8.4:1 in learners, which increased over the years. The age of the child when parents first became concerned and the age at diagnosis and assessment at school increased over both time periods. There was also an increase in the diversity of home languages after 2002. Parental qualifications decreased, but social class improved in recent years. The low qualification of a mother was associated with an advanced age of the child at school entry. The data serves as a point of reference for future studies about the characteristics of school children with ASD in South Africa.

  4. Ecoregional-scale monitoring within conservation areas, in a rapidly changing climate (United States)

    Beever, Erik A.; Woodward, Andrea


    Long-term monitoring of ecological systems can prove invaluable for resource management and conservation. Such monitoring can: (1) detect instances of long-term trend (either improvement or deterioration) in monitored resources, thus providing an early-warning indication of system change to resource managers; (2) inform management decisions and help assess the effects of management actions, as well as anthropogenic and natural disturbances; and (3) provide the grist for supplemental research on mechanisms of system dynamics and cause-effect relationships (Fancy et al., 2009). Such monitoring additionally provides a snapshot of the status of monitored resources during each sampling cycle, and helps assess whether legal standards and regulations are being met. Until the last 1-2 decades, tracking and understanding changes in condition of natural resources across broad spatial extents have been infrequently attempted. Several factors, however, are facilitating the achievement of such broad-scale investigation and monitoring. These include increasing awareness of the importance of landscape context, greater prevalence of regional and global environmental stressors, and the rise of landscape-scale programs designed to manage and monitor biological systems. Such programs include the US Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program (Moser et al., 2008), Canada's National Forest Inventory, the 3Q Programme for monitoring agricultural landscapes of Norway (Dramstad et al., 2002), and the emerging (US) Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (USDOI Secretarial Order 3289, 2009; Anonymous, 2011). This Special Section explores the underlying design considerations, as well as many pragmatic aspects associated with program implementation and interpretation of results from broad-scale monitoring systems, particularly within the constraints of high-latitude contexts (e.g., low road density, short field season, dramatic fluctuations in temperature). Although Alaska is

  5. Analysis of changes in water cycle across Northern Eurasia with Rapid Integrated Mapping and Analysis System (RIMS) (United States)

    Shiklomanov, A.; Prusevich, A.


    Historical and contemporary changes in various components of the hydrological cycle across the Northern Eurasia have been investigated using multiple observational and modeled data compiled in Rapid Integrated Mapping and Analysis System (RIMS) for North Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI). To evaluate potential future patterns of change in the Northern Eurasian water cycle we have used climate change projections simulated by several coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AO GCMs). Future changes in hydrological regime were assessed using the UNH Water Balance and Water Transport Models (WBM/WTM) which take into account water management including irrigation and reservoir regulation. We found significant shifts in the regional hydrology and quantified potential natural and anthropogenic causes of these changes. The results of our historical and future analysis have demonstrated an intensification of hydrological cycle in many regions of the Northern Eurasia observed over 50-60 year period with accelerated rate during the last decade. Based on climate projections we can expect that the current rate of changes to continue over the course of XXI century. A significant part of the analysis and quantitative estimates of water cycle trends in Northern Eurasia has been done using RIMS online and offline data analysis tools. RIMS has been developed by the Water Systems Analysis Group at the University of New Hampshire, USA for the NEESPI program. Presently, the RIMS data pool is composed of a variety of themes including climate, hydrology, land cover, human dimension, and others. It comprises over five thousand single layer (e.g. soil type) and time series (e.g. daily runoff) raster GIS coverages, and a number of climate and hydrology station/point network datasets. The system streamlines data mining, management and model feeds in the computational environment of large and diverse data holdings. In this presentation we want to demonstrate

  6. Rapid changes in the light/dark cycle disrupt memory of conditioned fear in mice.

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    Dawn H Loh

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Circadian rhythms govern many aspects of physiology and behavior including cognitive processes. Components of neural circuits involved in learning and memory, e.g., the amygdala and the hippocampus, exhibit circadian rhythms in gene expression and signaling pathways. The functional significance of these rhythms is still not understood. In the present study, we sought to determine the impact of transiently disrupting the circadian system by shifting the light/dark (LD cycle. Such "jet lag" treatments alter daily rhythms of gene expression that underlie circadian oscillations as well as disrupt the synchrony between the multiple oscillators found within the body. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We subjected adult male C57Bl/6 mice to a contextual fear conditioning protocol either before or after acute phase shifts of the LD cycle. As part of this study, we examined the impact of phase advances and phase delays, and the effects of different magnitudes of phase shifts. Under all conditions tested, we found that recall of fear conditioned behavior was specifically affected by the jet lag. We found that phase shifts potentiated the stress-evoked corticosterone response without altering baseline levels of this hormone. The jet lag treatment did not result in overall sleep deprivation, but altered the temporal distribution of sleep. Finally, we found that prior experience of jet lag helps to compensate for the reduced recall due to acute phase shifts. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Acute changes to the LD cycle affect the recall of fear-conditioned behavior. This suggests that a synchronized circadian system may be broadly important for normal cognition and that the consolidation of memories may be particularly sensitive to disruptions of circadian timing.

  7. Mandibular dental arch short and long-term spontaneous dentoalveolar changes after slow or rapid maxillary expansion: a systematic review

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    Arthur César de Medeiros Alves

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: The aim of this systematic review was to analyze the short and long-term spontaneous dentoalveolar changes of the mandibular dental arch after slow (SME or rapid (RME maxillary expansion in the mixed and early permanent dentitions. Methods: An electronic search was performed in the following databases: PubMed/Medline, Cochrane Library, Scopus, Embase and Web of Science. Eligibility criteria for article selection included randomized controlled trials and prospective studies written in English, with no restriction of year of publication, involving patients who underwent SME or RME during the mixed or early permanent dentitions. A double-blind search of articles was performed by two reviewers. Initially, the title and the abstract of the studies were read, and their references were also hand-searched for possible missing studies. A methodological quality scoring scale was used to analyze the selected articles. Results: The search retrieved 373 articles, but only 6 were selected for review after application of the eligibility and exclusion criteria. Non-clinically significant spontaneous dentoalveolar changes of approximately 1mm were found in the mandibular dental arch in the short and long-term, after slow or rapid maxillary expansions. Furthermore, no significant differences were found between treated and control groups. Conclusions: There is enough evidence to conclude that negligible short and long-term spontaneous dentoalveolar changes tend to occur in the mandibular dental arch after SME or RME in the mixed and early permanent dentitions. More randomized studies with appropriate control group are required to better evaluate this issue.

  8. Changes in Indirect Markers of Muscle Damage and Tendons After Daily Drop Jumping Exercise with Rapid Load Increase

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    Vidas Paleckis, Mantas Mickevičius, Audrius Snieckus, Vytautas Streckis, Mati Pääsuke, Saulius Rutkauskas, Rasa Steponavičiūtė, Albertas Skurvydas, Sigitas Kamandulis


    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to assess changes in indirect markers of muscle damage and type I collagen degradation, as well as, patellar and Achilles tendon morphological differences during nine daily drop-jumps sessions with constant load alternated with rapid increases in load to test the hypothesis that frequent drop-jump training results in negative muscular and tendon adaptation. Young men (n = 9 performed daily drop jump workouts with progression every 3 days in terms of number of jumps, platform height and squat amplitude. Voluntary and electrically evoked knee extensor torque, muscle soreness, blood plasma creatine kinase (CK activity and carboxyterminal cross-linked telopeptide (ICTP, patellar and Achilles tendon thickness and cross-sectional area (CSA were assessed at different time points during the training period and again on days 1, 3, 10 and 17 after the training. The findings were as follows: (1 steady decline in maximal muscle strength with major recovery within 24 hours after the first six daily training sessions; (2 larger decline in electrically induced muscle torque and prolonged recovery during last three training sessions; (3 increase in patellar and Achilles tendons CSA without change in thickness towards the end of training period; (4 increase in jump height but not in muscle strength after whole training period. Our findings suggest that frequent drop-jump sessions with constant load alternated with rapid increases in load do not induce severe muscle damage or major changes in tendons, nonetheless, this type of loading is not advisable for muscle strength improvement.

  9. Superimposing various biophysical and social scales in a rapidly changing rural area (SW Niger) (United States)

    Leduc, Christian; Massuel, Sylvain; Favreau, Guillaume; Cappelaere, Bernard; Leblanc, Marc; Bachir, Salifou; Ousmane, Boureïma


    transboundary aquifer that extends far beyond the study area, over about 150 000 km2. It is also heterogeneous. Like surface flows, but at a different scale, groundwater flows are marked by a strong endorheism. For example the Dantiandou closed piezometric depression extends over about approximately 5000 km2. These natural closed depressions are explained only by evapotranspiration uptake, weak in absolute terms (a few mm.a-1) but with a very high impact on hydrodynamics because of poor permeability and porosity. Both density of observations and hydraulic continuity of the CT3 aquifer give a fine idea of groundwater changes in the whole area. Human activities, continuously adapting in this poor rural area, add another complexity to the hydrological diversity in surface and ground water. The replacement of the natural vegetation with millet fields and fallow increased the surface runoff, and consequently water accumulation in temporary pools and then CT3 recharge. In the SE part of the study area, the water table has risen up to outcropping in the lowest valley bottoms. These new permanent ponds reflect groundwater while temporary ponds still reflect surface dynamics. This new component of the hydrological landscape induces several consequences, in physical and human dimensions. Evaporation strongly affects the permanent water and increases its salinity while the natural mineralization of groundwater is very low. The easier access to water resources allows a significant development of local gardening, which modifies the social functioning of villages (e.g. land rights between villages and within a village, diversification of crops and sources of income, new sales channels). Different physically based models (for surface and ground water) were built, with a significant discrepancy between their respective quantification of water flows at the region scale. Extrapolation of surface fluxes from the few instrumented catchments to a much larger mosaic of non-instrumented catchments is

  10. A fibre optic oxygen sensor that detects rapid PO2 changes under simulated conditions of cyclical atelectasis in vitro. (United States)

    Formenti, Federico; Chen, Rongsheng; McPeak, Hanne; Matejovic, Martin; Farmery, Andrew D; Hahn, Clive E W


    Two challenges in the management of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome are the difficulty in diagnosing cyclical atelectasis, and in individualising mechanical ventilation therapy in real-time. Commercial optical oxygen sensors can detect [Formula: see text] oscillations associated with cyclical atelectasis, but are not accurate at saturation levels below 90%, and contain a toxic fluorophore. We present a computer-controlled test rig, together with an in-house constructed ultra-rapid sensor to test the limitations of these sensors when exposed to rapidly changing [Formula: see text] in blood in vitro. We tested the sensors' responses to simulated respiratory rates between 10 and 60 breaths per minute. Our sensor was able to detect the whole amplitude of the imposed [Formula: see text] oscillations, even at the highest respiratory rate. We also examined our sensor's resistance to clot formation by continuous in vivo deployment in non-heparinised flowing animal blood for 24h, after which no adsorption of organic material on the sensor's surface was detectable by scanning electron microscopy. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Threshold and resilience management of coupled urbanization and water environmental system in the rapidly changing coastal region. (United States)

    Li, Yangfan; Li, Yi; Wu, Wei


    The concept of thresholds shows important implications for environmental and resource management. Here we derived potential landscape thresholds which indicated abrupt changes in water quality or the dividing points between exceeding and failing to meet national surface water quality standards for a rapidly urbanizing city on the Eastern Coast in China. The analysis of landscape thresholds was based on regression models linking each of the seven water quality variables to each of the six landscape metrics for this coupled land-water system. We found substantial and accelerating urban sprawl at the suburban areas between 2000 and 2008, and detected significant nonlinear relations between water quality and landscape pattern. This research demonstrated that a simple modeling technique could provide insights on environmental thresholds to support more-informed decision making in land use, water environmental and resilience management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. The importance of the sampling frequency in determining short-time-averaged irradiance and illuminance for rapidly changing cloud cover

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delaunay, J.J.; Rommel, M.; Geisler, J.


    The sampling interval is an important parameter which must be chosen carefully, if measurements of the direct, global, and diffuse irradiance or illuminance are carried out to determine their averages over a given period. Using measurements from a day with rapidly moving clouds, we investigated the influence of the sampling interval on the uncertainly of the calculated 15-min averages. We conclude, for this averaging period, that the sampling interval should not exceed 60 s and 10 s for measurement of the diffuse and global components respectively, to reduce the influence of the sampling interval below 2%. For the direct component, even a 5 s sampling interval is too long to reach this influence level for days with extremely quickly changing insolation conditions. (author)

  13. Dryland responses to global change suggest the potential for rapid non-linear responses to some changes but resilience to others (United States)

    Reed, S.; Ferrenberg, S.; Tucker, C.; Rutherford, W. A.; Wertin, T. M.; McHugh, T. A.; Morrissey, E.; Kuske, C.; Belnap, J.


    Drylands represent our planet's largest terrestrial biome, making up over 35% of Earth's land surface. In the context of this vast areal extent, it is no surprise that recent research suggests dryland inter-annual variability and responses to change have the potential to drive biogeochemical cycles and climate at the global-scale. Further, the data we do have suggest drylands can respond rapidly and non-linearly to change. Nevertheless, our understanding of the cross-system consistency of and mechanisms behind dryland responses to a changed environment remains relatively poor. This poor understanding hinders not only our larger understanding of terrestrial ecosystem function, but also our capacity to forecast future global biogeochemical cycles and climate. Here we present data from a series of Colorado Plateau manipulation experiments - including climate, land use, and nitrogen deposition manipulations - to explore how vascular plants, microbial communities, and biological soil crusts (a community of mosses, lichens, and/or cyanobacteria living in the interspace among vascular plants in arid and semiarid ecosystems worldwide) respond to a host of environmental changes. These responses include not only assessments of community composition, but of their function as well. We will explore photosynthesis, net soil CO2 exchange, soil carbon stocks and chemistry, albedo, and nutrient cycling. The experiments were begun with independent questions and cover a range of environmental change drivers and scientific approaches, but together offer a relatively holistic picture of how some drylands can change their structure and function in response to change. In particular, the data show very high ecosystem vulnerability to particular drivers, but surprising resilience to others, suggesting a multi-faceted response of these diverse systems.

  14. Alteration of chromophoric dissolved organic matter by solar UV radiation causes rapid changes in bacterial community composition† (United States)

    Piccini, Claudia; Conde, Daniel; Pernthaler, Jakob; Sommaruga, Ruben


    We evaluated the effect of photochemical alterations of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) on bacterial abundance, activity and community composition in a coastal lagoon of the Atlantic Ocean with high dissolved organic carbon concentration. On two occasions during the austral summer, bacteria-free water of the lagoon was exposed to different regions of the solar spectrum (full solar radiation, UV-A + PAR, PAR) or kept in the dark. Subsequently, dilution cultures were established with bacterioplankton from the lagoon that were incubated in the pre-exposed water for 5 h in the dark. Cell abundance, activity, and community composition of bacterioplankton were assessed before and after incubation in the different treatments. Changes in absorption, fluorescence, and DOC concentration were used as proxies for CDOM photoalteration. We found a significant CDOM photobleaching signal, DOC loss, as well as a stimulation of bacterial activity in the treatments pre-exposed to UV radiation, suggesting increased bioavailability of DOM. Bacterial community analysis by fluorescence in situ hybridization revealed that this stimulation was mainly accompanied by the specific enrichment of Alpha- and Betaproteobacteria. Thus, our results suggest that CDOM photoalteration not only stimulates bacterioplankton growth, but also induces rapid changes in bacterioplankton composition, which can be of relevance for ecosystem functioning, particularly considering present and future changes in the input of terrestrial CDOM to aquatic systems. PMID:19707620

  15. Alteration of chromophoric dissolved organic matter by solar UV radiation causes rapid changes in bacterial community composition. (United States)

    Piccini, Claudia; Conde, Daniel; Pernthaler, Jakob; Sommaruga, Ruben


    We evaluated the effect of photochemical alterations of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) on bacterial abundance, activity and community composition in a coastal lagoon of the Atlantic Ocean with high dissolved organic carbon concentration. On two occasions during the austral summer, bacteria-free water of the lagoon was exposed to different regions of the solar spectrum (full solar radiation, UV-A+PAR, PAR) or kept in the dark. Subsequently, dilution cultures were established with bacterioplankton from the lagoon that were incubated in the pre-exposed water for 5 h in the dark. Cell abundance, activity, and community composition of bacterioplankton were assessed before and after incubation in the different treatments. Changes in absorption, fluorescence, and DOC concentration were used as proxies for CDOM photoalteration. We found a significant CDOM photobleaching signal, DOC loss, as well as a stimulation of bacterial activity in the treatments pre-exposed to UV radiation, suggesting increased bioavailability of DOM. Bacterial community analysis by fluorescence in situ hybridization revealed that this stimulation was mainly accompanied by the specific enrichment of Alpha- and Betaproteobacteria. Thus, our results suggest that CDOM photoalteration not only stimulates bacterioplankton growth, but also induces rapid changes in bacterioplankton composition, which can be of relevance for ecosystem functioning, particularly considering present and future changes in the input of terrestrial CDOM to aquatic systems.

  16. Multi-generational responses of a marine polychaete to a rapid change in seawater pCO2. (United States)

    Rodríguez-Romero, Araceli; Jarrold, Michael D; Massamba-N'Siala, Gloria; Spicer, John I; Calosi, Piero


    Little is known of the capacity that marine metazoans have to evolve under rapid p CO 2 changes. Consequently, we reared a marine polychaete, Ophryotrocha labronica , previously cultured for approximately 33 generations under a low/variable pH regime, under elevated and low p CO 2 for six generations. The strain used was found to be tolerant to elevated p CO 2 conditions. In generations F1 and F2 females' fecundity was significantly lower in the low p CO 2 treatment. However, from generation F3 onwards there were no differences between p CO 2 treatments, indicating that trans-generational effects enabled the restoration and maintenance of reproductive output. Whilst the initial fitness recovery was likely driven by trans-generational plasticity (TGP), the results from reciprocal transplant assays, performed using F7 individuals, made it difficult to disentangle between whether TGP had persisted across multiple generations, or if evolutionary adaptation had occurred. Nonetheless, both are important mechanisms for persistence under climate change. Overall, our study highlights the importance of multi-generational experiments in more accurately determining marine metazoans' responses to changes in p CO 2 , and strengthens the case for exploring their use in conservation, by creating specific p CO 2 tolerant strains of keystone ecosystem species.

  17. Specialists meeting on design and assessment of instrumentation and control systems in NPP coping with rapid technological change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)



    A transition from analogue to computer based I and C (instrumentation and control) systems in nuclear power plants enabled the industry not only to make use of advantages of computers for the control of technological processes, but also transferred the unusual short innovation cycles in computer technology to become a constraint on the process I and C. This situation led the IAEA to provide an international forum for the presentation and discussion of the problems and organize a Specialists` Meeting in the framework of the International Working Group on Nuclear Power Plant Control and Instrumentation. The basic objective was to elaborate the management, engineering and economic problems arising from rapid technological changes, to point out solutions and to discuss the future trends in the field. The Year 2000 Issue was also inside the scope of the Meeting. Typical problems were technology changes provoking major I and C concept changes, spare part availability, compatibility in refurbishment processes. The present document contains the papers presented by national delegates, each with an abstract, and the conclusions drawn from the final discussion Refs, figs, tabs

  18. Specialists meeting on design and assessment of instrumentation and control systems in NPP coping with rapid technological change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    A transition from analogue to computer based I and C (instrumentation and control) systems in nuclear power plants enabled the industry not only to make use of advantages of computers for the control of technological processes, but also transferred the unusual short innovation cycles in computer technology to become a constraint on the process I and C. This situation led the IAEA to provide an international forum for the presentation and discussion of the problems and organize a Specialists' Meeting in the framework of the International Working Group on Nuclear Power Plant Control and Instrumentation. The basic objective was to elaborate the management, engineering and economic problems arising from rapid technological changes, to point out solutions and to discuss the future trends in the field. The Year 2000 Issue was also inside the scope of the Meeting. Typical problems were technology changes provoking major I and C concept changes, spare part availability, compatibility in refurbishment processes. The present document contains the papers presented by national delegates, each with an abstract, and the conclusions drawn from the final discussion

  19. Ecological ethics in captivity: balancing values and responsibilities in zoo and aquarium research under rapid global change. (United States)

    Minteer, Ben A; Collins, James P


    Ethical obligations to animals in conservation research and management are manifold and often conflicting. Animal welfare concerns often clash with the ethical imperative to understand and conserve a population or ecosystem through research and management intervention. The accelerating pace and impact of global environmental change, especially climate change, complicates our understanding of these obligations. One example is the blurring of the distinction between ex situ (zoo- and aquarium-based) conservation and in situ (field-based) approaches as zoos and aquariums become more active in field conservation work and as researchers and managers consider more intensive interventions in wild populations and ecosystems to meet key conservation goals. These shifts, in turn, have consequences for our traditional understanding of the ethics of wildlife research and management, including our relative weighting of animal welfare and conservation commitments across rapidly evolving ex situ and in situ contexts. Although this changing landscape in many ways supports the increased use of captive wildlife in conservation-relevant research, it raises significant ethical concerns about human intervention in populations and ecosystems, including the proper role of zoos and aquariums as centers for animal research and conservation in the coming decades. Working through these concerns requires a pragmatic approach to ethical analysis, one that is able to make trade-offs among the many goods at stake (e.g., animal welfare, species viability, and ecological integrity) as we strive to protect species from further decline and extinction in this century.

  20. Influence of rapid changes in cytosolic pH on oxidative phosphorylation in skeletal muscle: theoretical studies. (United States)

    Korzeniewski, Bernard; Zoladz, Jerzy A


    Cytosolic pH in skeletal muscle may vary significantly because of proton production/consumption by creatine kinase and/or proton production by anaerobic glycolysis. A computer model of oxidative phosphorylation in intact skeletal muscle developed previously was used to study the kinetic effect of these variations on the oxidative phosphorylation system. Two kinds of influence were analysed: (i) via the change in pH across the inner mitochondrial membrane and (ii) via the shift in the equilibrium of the creatine kinase-catalysed reaction. Our simulations suggest that cytosolic pH has essentially no impact on the steady-state fluxes and most metabolite concentrations. On the other hand, rapid acidification/alkalization of cytosol causes a transient decrease/increase in the respiration rate. Furthermore, changes in pH seem to affect significantly the kinetic properties of transition between resting state and active state. An increase in pH brought about by proton consumption by creatine kinase at the onset of exercise lengthens the transition time. At intensive exercise levels this pH increase could lead to loss of the stability of the system, if not compensated by glycolytic H+ production. Thus our theoretical results stress the importance of processes/mechanisms that buffer/compensate for changes in cytosolic proton concentration. In particular, we suggest that the second main role of anaerobic glycolysis, apart from additional ATP supply, may be maintaining the stability of the system at intensive exercise.

  1. Environmental influences on the at-sea behaviour of a major consumer, Mirounga leonina, in a rapidly changing environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trevor McIntyre


    Full Text Available Understanding the distribution and foraging ecology of major consumers within pelagic systems, specifically in relation to physical parameters, can be important for the management of bentho-pelagic systems undergoing rapid change associated with global climate change and other anthropogenic disturbances such as fishing (i.e., the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Sea. We tracked 11 adult male southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina, during their five-month post-moult foraging migrations from King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo, northern Antarctic Peninsula, using tags capable of recording and transmitting behavioural data and in situ temperature and salinity data. Seals foraged mostly within the Weddell–Scotia Confluence, while a few foraged along the western Antarctic Peninsula shelf of the Bellingshausen Sea. Mixed model outputs suggest that the at-sea behaviour of seals was associated with a number of environmental parameters, especially seafloor depth, sea-ice concentrations and the temperature structure of the water column. Seals increased dive bottom times and travelled at slower speeds in shallower areas and areas with increased sea-ice concentrations. Changes in dive depth and durations, as well as relative amount of time spent during the bottom phases of dives, were observed in relation to differences in overall temperature gradient, likely as a response to vertical changes in prey distribution associated with temperature stratification in the water column. Our results illustrate the likely complex influences of bathymetry, hydrography and sea ice on the behaviour of male southern elephant seals in a changing environment and highlight the need for region-specific approaches to studying environmental influences on behaviour.

  2. Changes in occlusal relationships in mixed dentition patients treated with rapid maxillary expansion. A prospective clinical study. (United States)

    McNamara, James A; Sigler, Lauren M; Franchi, Lorenzo; Guest, Susan S; Baccetti, Tiziano


    To prospectively measure occlusal changes in mixed dentition patients who underwent a standardized early expansion protocol. The treatment sample consisted of 500 patients who were assigned to three groups according to molar relationship: Class I (n = 204), end-to-end (n = 166), and Class II (n = 130). All patients were treated with a bonded rapid maxillary expander (RME) followed by a removable maintenance plate and a transpalatal arch. Mean age at the start of treatment was 8.8 years (T(1)), with a pre-phase 2 treatment cephalogram (T(2)) taken 3.7 years later. The control sample consisted of the cephalometric records of 188 untreated subjects (Class 1, n = 79; end-to-end, n = 51; Class II, n = 58). The largest change in molar relationship was noted when the Class II treatment group (1.8 mm) was compared with the matched control group (0.3 mm). A positive change was seen in 81% of the Class II treatment group, with almost half of the group improving by > or = 2.0 mm. The end-to-end treatment group had a positive change of 1.4 mm, compared with a control value of 0.6 mm, and the Class I group of about 1 mm compared with controls, who remained unchanged (0.1 mm). Skeletal changes were not significant when any of the groups were compared with controls. The expansion protocol had a significantly favorable effect on the sagittal occlusal relationships of Class II, end-to-end, and Class I patients treated in the early mixed dentition.

  3. Demographic upheavals in the former USSR. (United States)

    Haub, C


    Fertility and life expectancy have changed since the breakup of the Soviet republics in 1991 and continue to change very rapidly. Before 1991, the USSR was the fastest growing developed country in the world. Annual growth rates in the mid-1980s were 0.9% compared to only 0.1% in Europe or 1.1% in the US. Immigration did not greatly affect the USSR's growth rate. By 1993, the population had declined in 8 of the 15 former republics. Deaths exceeded births in Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Estonia, and Latvia, followed by Lithuania in 1994. The last census was conducted in 1989. Fertility declined in Russia from 1.9 in 1990 to 1.4 in 1993. Fertility has been low in Lithuania at 1.7, in the Ukraine at 1.6, in Latvia at 1.5, and in Estonia at 1.4. Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan have experienced fertility decline, which was affected by emigration to Russia and other countries after 1990. 25 million Russians have resided in the former republics in 1990. In Kazakhstan, the 160,000 more births than deaths were offset by 200,000 emigrants. Central republics with higher fertility experienced declines after 1990; for example, Kyrgyzstan declined from 3.7 in 1990 to 3.3 in 1993. Life expectancy for males in Russia in 1993 was 58.9 years, which was a decline from 63.8 years in 1990. About 50% of the decline in life expectancy was due to circulatory diseases, and about 25% was due to external causes such as accidents, suicide, and alcoholism. Infant mortality has been increasing since 1990; for example, it increased in the Ukraine from 12.9 in 1990 to 14.1 in 1992. Russia's population in 1993 experienced 700,000 more deaths than births. The demographic impact will be declining school enrollments and smaller employment among the working population to support the aged. The change to a market economy has been uneven in Russia, where it has advanced more rapidly than in the republics. It is unclear whether the declining birth rate and increasing mortality rates will continue, but

  4. Country Demographic Profiles: Thailand. (United States)

    Bureau of the Census (DOC), Suitland, MD. Population Div.

    This profile of the population of Thailand contains 35 tables of selected demographic information, including size of population and estimates of fertility and mortality, beginning in 1950. An adjusted distribution of the population by age and sex is given for the latest census year, as well as for 1976. Projections of the number of women of…

  5. [Recent demographic trends in Turkey]. (United States)

    Behar, C


    Coverage of Turkey's vital registration system remains incomplete, and it cannot yet be used to measure annual population changes. Data and demographic indices based on the 1990 census and the 1989 National Demographic Survey are the most recent available. Turkey's population in 1990 was 56 million. The proportion urban increased to 59% from 49.2% in 1980. Nearly 35% of the population was under 15 years old, and the median age was 21.6 for males and 22.3 for females. The average age at first marriage in 1989 was 24.8 for men and 21.8 for women. Mortality has been in continuous decline. The crude death rate dropped from 16.4/1000 in 1960-65 to slightly under 8 in 1989. Life expectancy at birth was 63.3 for men and 66 for women. The infant mortality rate declined from 166 in 1965-70 to 85 in 1989. Rural or urban residence and maternal educational level were the most significant determinants of infant mortality differentials. Turkey's total fertility rate declined from 6.2 in 1960 to 4.3 in 1978 and 3.4 in 1988-89. The crude birth rate declined from around 40/1000 in 1968 to under 28/1000 in 1989. Fertility began to decline in the last third of the nineteenth century in Istanbul and other large cities of the Ottoman Empire. Istanbul's total fertility rate was a relatively low 3.9 even before World War I. Turkey adopted a policy to slow demographic growth in the mid 1960s, and family planning activities were supported by nongovernmental organizations. The direct impact of these policies on demographic behavior appears to have been somewhat limited, and the use of traditional methods of birth limitation remains widespread. Abortion was legalized in 1983 and is available at public hospitals. The proportion of married women aged 15-49 who use contraception increased from 38% in 1973 to 63% in 1988. Regional differentials in demographic indices are significant in Turkey, with the Anatolian East and Southeast lagging behind other regions in fertility and mortality decline

  6. Long-term impact of changing childhood malnutrition on rotavirus diarrhoea: Two decades of adjusted association with climate and socio-demographic factors from urban Bangladesh. (United States)

    Das, Sumon Kumar; Chisti, Mohammod Jobayer; Sarker, Mohammad Habibur Rahman; Das, Jui; Ahmed, Shawnawaz; Shahunja, K M; Nahar, Shamsun; Gibbons, Nora; Ahmed, Tahmeed; Faruque, Abu Syed Golam; Rahman, Mustafizur; J Fuchs, George; Al Mamun, Abdullah; John Baker, Peter


    There is strong association between childhood rotavirus, diarrhoea, climate factors and malnutrition. Conversely, a significant nutritional transition (reduced under-nutrition) with a concurrent increasing trend of rotavirus infection in last decade was also observed among under 5 children, especially in developing countries including Bangladesh. Considering the pathophysiology of rotavirus, there might be an interaction of this nutrition transition which plays a pivotal role in increasing rotavirus infection in addition to climate and other man-made factors in urban areas such as Dhaka, Bangladesh. Relevant monthly data from 1993-2012 were extracted from the archive of the Diarrhoeal Disease Surveillance System of icddr, b and linked with data collected from the Dhaka station of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (mean temperature, rainfall, sea level pressure and humidity). Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average time series models were deployed to determine the association between the monthly proportion of rotavirus infection and underweight, stunting and wasting adjusting for climate, socio-demographic and sanitation factors. The proportion of rotavirus cases among all causes diarrhoea increased from 20% in 1993 to 43% in 2012 (Chi squared for trend p = 0.010). In contrast, underweight, stunting and wasting decreased from 59%-29% (pchildhood malnutrition is significantly associated with increasing rotavirus diarrhoea among under-5 children. Thus mass vaccination in addition to interventions directed at man-made modifiable predictors for prevention and control is warranted.

  7. The Female Labor Force in the United States; Demographic and Economic Factors Concerning Its Growth and Changing Composition. Population Monograph Series, No. 5. (United States)

    Oppenheimer, Valerie Kincade

    The purpose of this study is to explain the changing and increasing participation of females in the American labor force during this century, especially since 1940. Although the pre-1940 changes are smaller and may be attributable to improvements in census enumeration techniques, there has been a significant increase since 1940 in participation…

  8. A risk-based approach to evaluating wildlife demographics for management in a changing climate: A case study of the Lewis's Woodpecker (United States)

    Erin Towler; Victoria A. Saab; Richard S. Sojda; Katherine Dickinson; Cindy L. Bruyere; Karen R. Newlon


    Given the projected threat that climate change poses to biodiversity, the need for proactive response efforts is clear. However, integrating uncertain climate change information into conservation planning is challenging, and more explicit guidance is needed. To this end, this article provides a specific example of how a risk-based approach can be used to incorporate a...

  9. The contribution of the New Institutional Economics for the analysis of strategies and its theoretical and practical implications for the motor insurance in Germany in the light of socio-demographic and technical changes by the example of carsharing.


    Saeger, Hendrik Ulrich Willi


    This work examines the impact of the selected theories of the New Institutional Economics in the form of the principal agent, transaction cost and property rights theories onto the current pressing question for motor insurers of how to align themselves strategically in a rapidly changing more and more digital market, with values and structures of its participants changing at an equally fast rate. The phenomena of carsharing has taken up a dynamic growth in the last years, thus adding to the s...

  10. Niche tracking and rapid establishment of distributional equilibrium in the house sparrow show potential responsiveness of species to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William B Monahan

    Full Text Available The ability of species to respond to novel future climates is determined in part by their physiological capacity to tolerate climate change and the degree to which they have reached and continue to maintain distributional equilibrium with the environment. While broad-scale correlative climatic measurements of a species' niche are often described as estimating the fundamental niche, it is unclear how well these occupied portions actually approximate the fundamental niche per se, versus the fundamental niche that exists in environmental space, and what fitness values bounding the niche are necessary to maintain distributional equilibrium. Here, we investigate these questions by comparing physiological and correlative estimates of the thermal niche in the introduced North American house sparrow (Passer domesticus. Our results indicate that occupied portions of the fundamental niche derived from temperature correlations closely approximate the centroid of the existing fundamental niche calculated on a fitness threshold of 50% population mortality. Using these niche measures, a 75-year time series analysis (1930-2004 further shows that: (i existing fundamental and occupied niche centroids did not undergo directional change, (ii interannual changes in the two niche centroids were correlated, (iii temperatures in North America moved through niche space in a net centripetal fashion, and consequently, (iv most areas throughout the range of the house sparrow tracked the existing fundamental niche centroid with respect to at least one temperature gradient. Following introduction to a new continent, the house sparrow rapidly tracked its thermal niche and established continent-wide distributional equilibrium with respect to major temperature gradients. These dynamics were mediated in large part by the species' broad thermal physiological tolerances, high dispersal potential, competitive advantage in human-dominated landscapes, and climatically induced

  11. The importance of further education. In times of demographical change using the example of energy industry; Die Bedeutung der Weiterbildung in Zeiten des demografischen Wandels am Beispiel der Energiewirtschaft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmitz, Marcus [IGS Organisationsberatung GmbH, Koeln (Germany)


    The demographical development in Germany has an impact on the economy. Especially the qualified manpower supply will change not only in our country, but also in all other Western industrial nations. Companies would be well advised, if they previously anticipated the consequences they will face, to check and adjust their human resource strategies, if necessary. The target is to have specialists and executive staff available, according to quantitative as well as qualitative needs. Further education plays a decisive role to meet a shortage of human resources. (orig.)

  12. Monitoring Annual Urban Changes in a Rapidly Growing Portion of Northwest Arkansas with a 20-Year Landsat Record

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan Reynolds


    Full Text Available Northwest Arkansas has undergone a significant urban transformation in the past several decades and is considered to be one of the fastest growing regions in the United States. The urban area expansion and the associated demographic increases bring unprecedented pressure to the environment and natural resources. To better understand the consequences of urbanization, accurate and long-term depiction on urban dynamics is critical. Although urban mapping activities using remote sensing have been widely conducted, long-term urban growth mapping at an annual pace is rare and the low accuracy of change detection remains a challenge. In this study, a time series Landsat stack covering the period from 1995 to 2015 was employed to detect the urban dynamics in Northwest Arkansas via a two-stage classification approach. A set of spectral indices that have been proven to be useful in urban area extraction together with the original Landsat spectral bands were used in the maximum likelihood classifier and random forest classifier to distinguish urban from non-urban pixels for each year. A temporal trajectory polishing method, involving temporal filtering and heuristic reasoning, was then applied to the sequence of classified urban maps for further improvement. Based on a set of validation samples selected for five distinct years, the average overall accuracy of the final polished maps was 91%, which improved the preliminary classifications by over 10%. Moreover, results from this study also indicated that the temporal trajectory polishing method was most effective with initial low accuracy classifications. The resulting urban dynamic map is expected to provide unprecedented details about the area, spatial configuration, and growing trends of urban land-cover in Northwest Arkansas.

  13. From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden? : Regional Trends of Population Aging in Russia


    Matytsin, Mikhail; Moorty, Lalita; Richter, Kaspar


    Do regions with higher working age populations grow faster? This paper examines this question using data from Russian regions and finds evidence that demographic trends influence regional growth convergence. In other words, keeping other factors constant, poorer regions grow faster than richer regions, and some of the growth convergence is explained by demographic changes: faster growth in...

  14. The Arctic Report Card: Communicating the State of the Rapidly Changing Arctic to a Diverse Audience via the Worldwide Web (United States)

    Jeffries, M. O.; Richter-Menge, J.; Overland, J. E.; Soreide, N. N.


    Rapid change is occurring throughout the Arctic environmental system. The goal of the Arctic Report Card is to communicate the nature of the many changes to a diverse audience via the Worldwide Web. First published in 2006, the Arctic Report Card is a peer-reviewed publication containing clear, reliable and concise scientific information on the current state of the Arctic environment relative to observational records. Available only online, it is intended to be an authoritative source for scientists, teachers, students, decision-makers, policy-makers and the general public interested in the Arctic environment and science. The Arctic Report Card is organized into five sections: Atmosphere; Sea Ice & Ocean; Marine Ecosystem; Terrestrial Ecosystem; Terrestrial Cryosphere. Arctic Report Card 2012, the sixth annual update, comprised 20 essays on physical and biological topics prepared by an international team of 141 scientists from 15 different countries. For those who want a quick summary, the Arctic Report Card home page provides highlights of key events and findings, and a short video that is also available on YouTube. The release of the Report Card each autumn is preceded by a NOAA press release followed by a press conference, when the Web site is made public. The release of Arctic Report Card 2012 at an AGU Fall Meeting press conference on 5 December 2012 was subsequently reported by leading media organizations. The NOAA Arctic Web site, of which the Report Card is a part, is consistently at the top of Google search results for the keyword 'arctic', and the Arctic Report Card Web site tops search results for keyword "arctic report" - pragmatic indications of a Web site's importance and popularity. As another indication of the Web site's impact, in December 2012, the month when the 2012 update was released, the Arctic Report Card Web site was accessed by 19,851 unique sites in 105 countries, and 4765 Web site URLs referred to the Arctic Report Card. The 2012 Arctic

  15. A 1200-Year Record of Rapid Climate Changes Across the Tropical Americas Identified from Lake Sediments (Invited) (United States)

    Abbott, M.; Rodbell, D. T.; Stansell, N.; Bird, B. W.; Vuille, M.


    Well-dated, highly resolved lake sediment stratigraphies from similar catchments across the tropical Americas provide a means to investigate the timing, rate and direction of climate variability as well as providing a way to evaluate whether rapid changes occur synchronously in both hemispheres. This presentation focuses on the last 1500 years from three new high-resolution stable isotope records including Yuraicocha (12°32'S, 75°29'W), Pumacocha (10°41'S, 76° 3'36W), and Gancho (8°27'N, 80°51'W). These lakes are all sensitive to changes in P/E and the sediment records respond at subdecadal timescales. Additionally, the results from these sites are compared with lake level records from Titicaca (16°14'S, 68°37'W) and Blanca (8°19'N, 71°46'W) as well as other lake core and speleothem records from the region. The results show that in general conditions are dry across South America from ~800 AD until ~1300 AD with wetter conditions in Central America and the Caribbean. This pattern of dry conditions in tropical South America and wet conditions in the north reverses after ~1300 when conditions become wetter in South America, and drier in Central America and the Carrabin.

  16. Rapid Cultural Change: A Case Study of Polyandry Marriage System among the Gurung Community from Upper Mustang, Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juddha Bahadur Gurung


    Full Text Available Nepal is multi ethnic, multi lingual and multi cultural country. In Upper Mustang polyandry is practiced by Loba communities. However, the condition of polyandry is dying out at present. The young are not in favor of this system. Socio-economic, political, seasonal migration, tourism and developmental factors have played crucial role in this regards. From conservation perspective polyandry played crucial role to manage local resources and in population dynamics in the past. This paper is based on field survey carried out in two different time periods (1998 and 2008 in order to compare or understand changing pattern of polyandry. In last couple of years, polyandry system has changed very rapidly in Loba communities of Upper Mustang. Rising community awareness, multiple economic opportunities, improve communication, foreign employment, modern education, open tourism, road access and other visual and in visual forces has lead society from close to open and more wider side or increase the horizon of young generation. Polyandry system is directly affected. DOI: Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology Vol. 6, 2012 75-106

  17. The forest and the trees: Industrialization, demographic change, and the ongoing gender revolution in Sweden and the United States, 1870-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Stanfors


    Full Text Available Background: The separate spheres, in which men dominate the public sphere of politics, arts, media, and wage work and women dominate the private sphere of unpaid production and caring, is a powerful configuration in much social theory (including Parsons, Becker, and Goode, which posited that with industrialization, family structures and activities would converge towards the nuclear family with strict gender roles. Objective: This paper examines the major trends unraveling the gender division of family support and care that reached its peak in the mid-20th century, often called the 'worker-carer' or the 'separate spheres' model, by comparing the experiences of Sweden and the United States. Methods: We use data that includes time series of macro-level demographic and economic indicators, together with cross-sectional data from censuses and time use surveys. Results: The unraveling of the separate spheres began with the increase in the labor force participation of married women and continues with the increase in men's involvement with their homes and children, but its foundations were laid in the 19th century, with industrialization. We show that despite short-term stalls, slowdowns, and even reverses, as well as huge differences in policy contexts, the overall picture of increasing gender sharing in family support and care is strongly taking shape in both countries. Contribution: By doing a comparative, in-depth analysis, it becomes clear that the extreme role specialization within the couple that divided caring from 'work,' though theoretically important, applied only for a limited period in Northern Europe and the United States, however important it might be in other regions.

  18. Economic and demographic impacts of passenger rail systems : the impact of intercity passenger rails on population and employment change in the United States, 2000-2010. (United States)


    This research examines the impact of intercity passenger rails on change in population and employment at the county level in the continental United States from 2000 to 2010. This research adopts an integrated spatial regression approach that incorpor...

  19. Economic Effects of Demographic Ageing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Litra A.V.


    Full Text Available Romania goes through profound changes due to unprecedented demographic developments. As a result of declining birth rates and emigration after 1990, by the year 2060 is looming a possible doubling of the percentage of the population 65 years and over, from 15 to 30%, and the working age population to fall by about 30 percent. Deterioration of the relationship between labour force and inactive population leads to pressure on the public budget and tax system, strains on pension and social security systems, redefining consumer preferences, type and size of the saved or spent amounts, higher demand for healthcare services, increasing poverty risk for elderly households.

  20. Selective deletion of cochlear hair cells causes rapid age-dependent changes in spiral ganglion and cochlear nucleus neurons. (United States)

    Tong, Ling; Strong, Melissa K; Kaur, Tejbeer; Juiz, Jose M; Oesterle, Elizabeth C; Hume, Clifford; Warchol, Mark E; Palmiter, Richard D; Rubel, Edwin W


    During nervous system development, critical periods are usually defined as early periods during which manipulations dramatically change neuronal structure or function, whereas the same manipulations in mature animals have little or no effect on the same property. Neurons in the ventral cochlear nucleus (CN) are dependent on excitatory afferent input for survival during a critical period of development. Cochlear removal in young mammals and birds results in rapid death of target neurons in the CN. Cochlear removal in older animals results in little or no neuron death. However, the extent to which hair-cell-specific afferent activity prevents neuronal death in the neonatal brain is unknown. We further explore this phenomenon using a new mouse model that allows temporal control of cochlear hair cell deletion. Hair cells express the human diphtheria toxin (DT) receptor behind the Pou4f3 promoter. Injections of DT resulted in nearly complete loss of organ of Corti hair cells within 1 week of injection regardless of the age of injection. Injection of DT did not influence surrounding supporting cells directly in the sensory epithelium or spiral ganglion neurons (SGNs). Loss of hair cells in neonates resulted in rapid and profound neuronal loss in the ventral CN, but not when hair cells were eliminated at a more mature age. In addition, normal survival of SGNs was dependent on hair cell integrity early in development and less so in mature animals. This defines a previously undocumented critical period for SGN survival. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/357878-14$15.00/0.

  1. EJSCREEN Demographic Indicators 2015 Public (United States)

    EJSCREEN uses demographic factors as very general indicators of a community's potential susceptibility to the types of environmental factors included in this screening tool. There are six demographic indicators: Demographic Index, Supplementary Demographic Index, Individuals under Age 5, Individuals over Age 64, Percent Low-Income, Linguistic Isolation, Percent Minority, and Less than High School Education.

  2. [Recent demographic trends]. (United States)


    A review of demographic trends in Luxembourg in 1982 is presented. A decline in fertility, the first since 1977, is noted, together with an increase in divorce, as well as a negative migration balance for the first time since 1967. Topics covered include natural increase and migration, fertility, marriage and divorce, mortality, adoption, and legislation affecting the family. Special consideration is given to the mortality experience of those who were subjected to compulsory labor during World War II.

  3. Long-term impact of changing childhood malnutrition on rotavirus diarrhoea: Two decades of adjusted association with climate and socio-demographic factors from urban Bangladesh.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumon Kumar Das

    Full Text Available There is strong association between childhood rotavirus, diarrhoea, climate factors and malnutrition. Conversely, a significant nutritional transition (reduced under-nutrition with a concurrent increasing trend of rotavirus infection in last decade was also observed among under 5 children, especially in developing countries including Bangladesh. Considering the pathophysiology of rotavirus, there might be an interaction of this nutrition transition which plays a pivotal role in increasing rotavirus infection in addition to climate and other man-made factors in urban areas such as Dhaka, Bangladesh.Relevant monthly data from 1993-2012 were extracted from the archive of the Diarrhoeal Disease Surveillance System of icddr, b and linked with data collected from the Dhaka station of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (mean temperature, rainfall, sea level pressure and humidity. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average time series models were deployed to determine the association between the monthly proportion of rotavirus infection and underweight, stunting and wasting adjusting for climate, socio-demographic and sanitation factors.The proportion of rotavirus cases among all causes diarrhoea increased from 20% in 1993 to 43% in 2012 (Chi squared for trend p = 0.010. In contrast, underweight, stunting and wasting decreased from 59%-29% (p<0.001; 53%-21% (p<0.001 and 32%-22% (p<0.001 respectively over the same period. Mean ambient temperature increased from 25.76°C-26.62°C (p = 0.07; mean rainfall, sea level pressure and mean humidity decreased from 234.92-111.75 mm (p = 0.5, 1008.30-1006.61 mm of hg (p = 0.02 and 76.63%-70.26% (p<0.001, respectively. In the adjusted model, a decrease in monthly proportion of underweight [coef.: -0.189 (95% CI:-0.376, -0.003] and wasting [-0.265 (-0.455, -0.075] were significantly and inversely associated with rotavirus infection. However, an inverse but insignificant association was observed for

  4. Demographic Ranking of the Baltic Sea States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sluka N.


    Full Text Available The relevance of the study lies in the acute need to modernise the tools for a more accurate and comparable reflection of the demographic reality of spatial objects of different scales. This article aims to test the methods of “demographic rankings” developed by Yermakov and Shmakov. The method is based on the principles of indirect standardisation of the major demographic coefficients relative to the age structure.The article describes the first attempt to apply the method to the analysis of birth and mortality rates in 1995 and 2010 for 140 countries against the global average, and for the Baltic Sea states against the European average. The grouping of countries and the analysis of changes over the given period confirmed a number of demographic development trends and the persistence of wide territorial disparities in major indicators. The authors identify opposite trends in ranking based on the standardised birth (country consolidation at the level of averaged values and mortality (polarisation rates. The features of demographic process development in the Baltic regions states are described against the global and European background. The study confirmed the validity of the demographic ranking method, which can be instrumental in solving not only scientific but also practical tasks, including those in the field of demographic and social policy.

  5. Nitrogen can improve the rapid response of photosynthesis to changing irradiance in rice (Oryza sativa L.) plants. (United States)

    Sun, Jiali; Ye, Miao; Peng, Shaobing; Li, Yong


    To identify the effect of nitrogen (N) nutrition on the dynamic photosynthesis of rice plants, a pot experiment was conducted under two N conditions. The leaf N and chlorophyll levels, as well as steady-state photosynthesis, were significantly increased under high N. After the transition from saturating to low light levels, decreases in the induction state (IS%) of leaf photosynthesis (A) and stomatal conductance (gs) were more severe under low than under high N supply. After the transition from low to flecked irradiance, the times to 90% of maximum A (T90%A) were significantly longer under low than under high N supply. Under flecked irradiance, the maximum A under saturating light (Amax-fleck) and the steady-state A under low light (Amin-fleck) were both lower than those under uniform irradiance (Asat and Ainitial). Under high N supply, Amax-fleck was 14.12% lower than Asat, while it was 22.80% lower under low N supply. The higher IS%, shorter T90%A, and the lower depression of Amax-fleck from Asat under high N supply led to a less carbon loss compared with under a low N supply. Therefore, we concluded that N can improve the rapid response of photosynthesis to changing irradiance.

  6. Law-making functions of the Chinese courts:Judicial activism in a country of rapid social changes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Chenguang


    The judicial production of law and the legislative production of law make a striking distinction between the two legal traditions.Despite of these differences,judges in both legal traditions in adjudicating cases have a common task,which is the application of legal rules to the facts of cases pending for judgments.The tension between the certainty and the "discretion" is universal for any legal system and,to a certain extent,it poses a hard dilemma for the rhetoric of rule of law.In the transitional countries such as China where rapid social changes and transformations take place,the judiciary and judges can not escape from taking more active roles in interpreting or even law making process.It arouses much controversy,particularly in continental legal traditions,for the judiciary is deemed to perform a mechanical role in adjudicating cases.This article intends to analyze the needs for judicial law.making function in China and its reasons.It reveals that judicial interpretation constitutes an important source of law despite its ambiguous legislative position.The article argues that judicial activism is inevitable against the transitional nature of current Chinese society.

  7. Ancestral genetic diversity associated with the rapid spread of stress-tolerant coral symbionts in response to Holocene climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Hume, Benjamin C. C.


    Coral communities in the Persian/Arabian Gulf (PAG) withstand unusually high salinity levels and regular summer temperature maxima of up to ∼35 °C that kill conspecifics elsewhere. Due to the recent formation of the PAG and its subsequent shift to a hot climate, these corals have had only <6, 000 y to adapt to these extreme conditions and can therefore inform on how coral reefs may respond to global warming. One key to coral survival in the world\\'s warmest reefs are symbioses with a newly discovered alga, Symbiodinium thermophilum. Currently, it is unknown whether this symbiont originated elsewhere or emerged from unexpectedly fast evolution catalyzed by the extreme environment. Analyzing genetic diversity of symbiotic algae across >5, 000 km of the PAG, the Gulf of Oman, and the Red Sea coastline, we show that S. thermophilum is a member of a highly diverse, ancient group of symbionts cryptically distributed outside the PAG. We argue that the adjustment to temperature extremes by PAG corals was facilitated by the positive selection of preadapted symbionts. Our findings suggest that maintaining the largest possible pool of potentially stress-tolerant genotypes by protecting existing biodiversity is crucial to promote rapid adaptation to present-day climate change, not only for coral reefs, but for ecosystems in general.

  8. Planet earth 1984-2034: a demographic vision. (United States)

    Bouvier, L F


    In recognition of 1984 as the year of both Orwell's famous futuristic novel and the International Population Conference following up the 1974 World Population Conference, this Bulletin examines the current state of world population and presents the author's speculations on what it might be 50 years from now. World population, now close to 4.8 billion and growing at 1.8%/year, is being shaped by 3 demographic phenomena: prolonged below-replacement fertility in developed nations, perhaps partly in response to the reduced need for workers in the emerging information era; rapid growth despite failing fertility in developing nations, due to earlier rapid mortality decline; and rapid urbanization in developing nations and unprecedented migration from poor to better-off nations. The author's assumptions for nondemographic factors related to population change in the next 50 years are no world war, nuclear or otherwise; global resource adequacy; rapid scientific and technological progress shared equitably; and the demise of capitalism and communism and greatly increased economic aid from advanced to less advanced nations. For 2034 the author envisages nations divided into service/information societies (4% of global population) where immigration balances low fertility to prevent population decline; industrialized nations (38% of total), with fertility close to or at replacement level and growth slowing; developing nations (43%), in sight of replacement level fertility; and least developed nations, with still critical demographic problems but only 15% of the world population. Total population will be 8.03 billion, but growth will be down to 0.8%/year and global zero growth is possible in another 50 years. This relatively optimistic scenario for 2034 will only be possible if mankind acts to see that the stated nondemographic assumptions are borne out.

  9. A Framework Predicting Water Availability in a Rapidly Growing, Semi-Arid Region under Future Climate Change (United States)

    Han, B.; Benner, S. G.; Glenn, N. F.; Lindquist, E.; Dahal, K. R.; Bolte, J.; Vache, K. B.; Flores, A. N.


    Climate change can lead to dramatic variations in hydrologic regime, affecting both surface water and groundwater supply. This effect is most significant in populated semi-arid regions where water availability are highly sensitive to climate-induced outcomes. However, predicting water availability at regional scales, while resolving some of the key internal variability and structure in semi-arid regions is difficult due to the highly non-linearity relationship between rainfall and runoff. In this study, we describe the development of a modeling framework to evaluate future water availability that captures elements of the coupled response of the biophysical system to climate change and human systems. The framework is built under the Envision multi-agent simulation tool, characterizing the spatial patterns of water demand in the semi-arid Treasure Valley area of Southwest Idaho - a rapidly developing socio-ecological system where urban growth is displacing agricultural production. The semi-conceptual HBV model, a population growth and allocation model (Target), a vegetation state and transition model (SSTM), and a statistically based fire disturbance model (SpatialAllocator) are integrated to simulate hydrology, population and land use. Six alternative scenarios are composed by combining two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with three population growth and allocation scenarios (Status Quo, Managed Growth, and Unconstrained Growth). Five-year calibration and validation performances are assessed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Irrigation activities are simulated using local water rights. Results show that in all scenarios, annual mean stream flow decreases as the projected rainfall increases because the projected warmer climate also enhances water losses to evapotranspiration. Seasonal maximum stream flow tends to occur earlier than in current conditions due to the earlier peak of snow melting. The aridity index and water deficit generally increase in the

  10. Nowhere to Go but Up: Impacts of Climate Change on Demographics of a Short-Range Endemic (Crotalus willardi obscurus) in the Sky-Islands of Southwestern North America. (United States)

    Davis, Mark A; Douglas, Marlis R; Webb, Colleen T; Collyer, Michael L; Holycross, Andrew T; Painter, Charles W; Kamees, Larry K; Douglas, Michael E


    Biodiversity elements with narrow niches and restricted distributions (i.e., 'short range endemics,' SREs) are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The New Mexico Ridge-nosed Rattlesnake (Crotalus willardi obscurus, CWO), an SRE listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act within three sky islands of southwestern North America, is constrained at low elevation by drought and at high elevation by wildfire. We combined long-term recapture and molecular data with demographic and niche modeling to gauge its climate-driven status, distribution, and projected longevity. The largest population (Animas) is numerically constricted (N = 151), with few breeding adults (Nb = 24) and an elevated inbreeding coefficient (ΔF = 0.77; 100 years). Mean home range (0.07 km2) is significantly smaller compared to other North American rattlesnakes, and movements are within, not among sky islands. Demographic values, when gauged against those displayed by other endangered/Red-Listed reptiles [e.g., Loggerhead Sea Turtle (Caretta caretta)], are either comparable or markedly lower. Survival rate differs significantly between genders (femalesky islands. CWO is a rare organism in a unique environment, with a conserved niche and a predisposition towards extinction. It is a bellwether for the eventual climate-driven collapse of the Madrean pine-oak ecosystem, one of Earth's three recognized megadiversity centers.

  11. Brazil is getting older: demographic changes and epidemiological challenges Envelhecimento populacional do Brasil: mudanças demográficas e desafios epidemiológicos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renato P. Veras


    Full Text Available Population ageing is currently a phenomenon not only in developed countries but also in third world countries. In this paper the features of a population's ageing and the process of epidemiological transition are discussed along with the worldwide changes in age-structure. Population statistics in Brazil and the characteristics of the elderly population are presented and analysed in the light of recent changes. The Brazilian elderly population is also discussed, particularly the issues relating to the social cost of the aged population, its urban and rural distribution, the elderly by sex, marital status and level of schooling, and emphasis is given to the imbalance of the sexes and the consequences of it for women.O crescimento da população idosa é um fenômeno que ocorre nos países centrais, mas também, de modo crescente, nos países do Terceiro Mundo. Este artigo apresenta os motivos deste crescimento, discute o processo de transição epidemiológica, as mudanças na estrutura etária da população idosa em todo o mundo, e em particular no Brasil. Estatísticas da população brasileira e as características do idoso brasileiro são apresentadas e analisadas em função das mudanças ocorridas recentemente. O artigo aborda vários tópicos relacionados com o idoso brasileiro: o custo financeiro para a sociedade manter uma população idosa, a distribuição urbana e rural, a diferença numérica entre sexos, o estado conjugal, a escolaridade, entre outros. Ênfase é conferida a algumas características e particularidades da mulher idosa.

  12. Census Cities experiment in urban change detection. [mapping of land use changes in San Francisco, Washington D.C., Phoenix, Tucson, Boston, New Haven, Cedar Rapids, and Pontiac (United States)

    Wray, J. R. (Principal Investigator); Milazzo, V. A.


    The author has identified the following significant results. Mapping of 1970 and 1972 land use from high-flight photography has been completed for all test sites: San Francisco, Washington, Phoenix, Tucson, Boston, New Haven, Cedar Rapids, and Pontiac. Area analysis of 1970 and 1972 land use has been completed for each of the mandatory urban areas. All 44 sections of the 1970 land use maps of the San Francisco test site have been officially released through USGS Open File at 1:62,500. Five thousand copies of the Washington one-sheet color 1970 land use map, census tract map, and point line identification map are being printed by USGS Publication Division. ERTS-1 imagery for each of the eight test sites is being received and analyzed. Color infrared photo enlargements at 1:100,000 of ERTS-1 MSS images of Phoenix taken on October 16, 1972 and May 2, 1973 are being analyzed to determine to what level land use and land use changes can be identified and to what extent the ERTS-1 imagery can be used in updating the 1970 aircraft photo-derived land use data base. Work is proceeding on the analysis of ERTS-1 imagery by computer manipulation of ERTS-1 MSS data in digital format. ERTS-1 CCT maps at 1:24,000 are being analyzed for two dates over Washington and Phoenix. Anniversary tape sets have been received at Purdue LARS for some additional urban test sites.

  13. EJSCREEN Version 1, Demographic Data (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This map service displays demographic data used in EJSCREEN. All demographic data were derived from American Community Survey 2006-2010 estimates. EJSCREEN is an...

  14. Rapid evolutionary change of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L plastome, and the genomic diversification of legume chloroplasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dávila Guillermo


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Fabaceae (legumes is one of the largest families of flowering plants, and some members are important crops. In contrast to what we know about their great diversity or economic importance, our knowledge at the genomic level of chloroplast genomes (cpDNAs or plastomes for these crops is limited. Results We sequenced the complete genome of the common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris cv. Negro Jamapa chloroplast. The plastome of P. vulgaris is a 150,285 bp circular molecule. It has gene content similar to that of other legume plastomes, but contains two pseudogenes, rpl33 and rps16. A distinct inversion occurred at the junction points of trnH-GUG/rpl14 and rps19/rps8, as in adzuki bean 1. These two pseudogenes and the inversion were confirmed in 10 varieties representing the two domestication centers of the bean. Genomic comparative analysis indicated that inversions generally occur in legume plastomes and the magnitude and localization of insertions/deletions (indels also vary. The analysis of repeat sequences demonstrated that patterns and sequences of tandem repeats had an important impact on sequence diversification between legume plastomes and tandem repeats did not belong to dispersed repeats. Interestingly, P. vulgaris plastome had higher evolutionary rates of change on both genomic and gene levels than G. max, which could be the consequence of pressure from both mutation and natural selection. Conclusion Legume chloroplast genomes are widely diversified in gene content, gene order, indel structure, abundance and localization of repetitive sequences, intracellular sequence exchange and evolutionary rates. The P. vulgaris plastome is a rapidly evolving genome.

  15. Effects of landscape change on fish assemblage structure in a rapidly growing metropolitan area in North Carolina, USA (United States)

    Kennen, J.G.; Chang, M.; Tracy, B.H.


    We evaluated a comprehensive set of natural and land-use attributes that represent the major facets of urban development at fish monitoring sites in the rapidly growing Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina metropolitan area. We used principal component and correlation analysis to obtain a nonredundant subset of variables that extracted most variation in the complete set. With this subset of variables, we assessed the effect of urban growth on fish assemblage structure. We evaluated variation in fish assemblage structure with nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS). We used correlation analysis to identify the most important environmental and landscape variables associated with significant NMDS axes. The second NMDS axis is related to many indices of land-use/land-cover change and habitat. Significant correlations with proportion of largest forest patch to total patch size (r = -0.460, P < 0.01), diversity of patch types (r = 0.554, P < 0.001), and population density (r = 0.385, P < 0.05) helped identify NMDS axis 2 as a disturbance gradient. Positive and negative correlations between the abundance of redbreast sunfish Lepomis auritus and bluehead chub Nocomis leptocephalus, respectively, and NMDS axis 2 also were evident. The North Carolina index of biotic integrity and many of its component metrics were highly correlated with urbanization. These results indicate that aquatic ecosystem integrity would be optimized by a comprehensive integrated management strategy that includes the preservation of landscape function by maximizing the conservation of contiguous tracts of forested lands and vegetative cover in watersheds. ?? 2005 by the American Fisheries Society.

  16. Do we need demographic data to forecast plant population dynamics? (United States)

    Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Adler, Peter B.


    Rapid environmental change has generated growing interest in forecasts of future population trajectories. Traditional population models built with detailed demographic observations from one study site can address the impacts of environmental change at particular locations, but are difficult to scale up to the landscape and regional scales relevant to management decisions. An alternative is to build models using population-level data that are much easier to collect over broad spatial scales than individual-level data. However, it is unknown whether models built using population-level data adequately capture the effects of density-dependence and environmental forcing that are necessary to generate skillful forecasts.Here, we test the consequences of aggregating individual responses when forecasting the population states (percent cover) and trajectories of four perennial grass species in a semi-arid grassland in Montana, USA. We parameterized two population models for each species, one based on individual-level data (survival, growth and recruitment) and one on population-level data (percent cover), and compared their forecasting accuracy and forecast horizons with and without the inclusion of climate covariates. For both models, we used Bayesian ridge regression to weight the influence of climate covariates for optimal prediction.In the absence of climate effects, we found no significant difference between the forecast accuracy of models based on individual-level data and models based on population-level data. Climate effects were weak, but increased forecast accuracy for two species. Increases in accuracy with climate covariates were similar between model types.In our case study, percent cover models generated forecasts as accurate as those from a demographic model. For the goal of forecasting, models based on aggregated individual-level data may offer a practical alternative to data-intensive demographic models. Long time series of percent cover data already exist

  17. Trends in primary total hip arthroplasty in Spain from 2001 to 2008: Evaluating changes in demographics, comorbidity, incidence rates, length of stay, costs and mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jimenez-Trujillo Isabel


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hip arthroplasties is one of the most frequent surgical procedures in Spain and are conducted mainly in elderly subjects. We aim to analyze changes in incidence, co-morbidity profile, length of hospital stay (LOHS, costs and in-hospital mortality (IHM of patients undergoing primary total hip arthroplasty (THA over an 8-year study period in Spain. Methods We selected all surgical admissions in individuals aged ≥40 years who had received a primary THA (ICD-9-CM procedure code 81.51 between 2001 and 2008 from the National Hospital Discharge Database. Age- and sex-specific incidence rates, LOHS, costs and IHM were estimated for each year. Co-morbidity was assessed using the Charlson comorbidity index. Multivariate analysis of time trends was conducted using Poisson regression. Logistic regression models were conducted to analyze IHM. Results We identified a total of 161,791 discharges of patients having undergone THA from 2001 to 2008. Overall crude incidence had increased from 99 to 105 THA per 100.000 inhabitants from 2001 to 2008 (p 2 and in 2008, the prevalence of 1-2 or >2 had increased to 20.4% and 1.1% respectively (p Conclusions The current study provides clear and valid data indicating increased incidence of primary THA in Spain from 2001 to 2008 with concomitant reductions in LOHS, slight reduction IHM, but a significant increase in cost per patient. The health profile of the patient undergoing a THA seems to be worsening in Spain.

  18. Changes in the socio-demographic patterning of late adolescent health risk behaviours during the 1990s: analysis of two West of Scotland cohort studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sweeting Helen


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Substance use and sexual risk behaviour affect young people's current and future health and wellbeing in many high-income countries. Our understanding of time-trends in adolescent health-risk behaviour is largely based on routinely collected survey data in school-aged adolescents (aged 15 years or less. Less is known about changes in these behaviours among older adolescents. Methods We compared two cohorts from the same geographical area (West of Scotland, surveyed in 1990 and 2003, to: describe time-trends in measures of smoking, drinking, illicit drug use, early sexual initiation, number of opposite sex sexual partners and experience of pregnancy at age 18-19 years, both overall and stratified by gender and socioeconomic status (SES; and examine the effect of time-trends on the patterning of behaviours by gender and SES. Our analyses adjust for slight between-cohort age differences since age was positively associated with illicit drug use and pregnancy. Results Rates of drinking, illicit drug use, early sexual initiation and experience of greater numbers of sexual partners all increased significantly between 1990 and 2003, especially among females, leading to attenuation and, for early sexual initiation, elimination, of gender differences. Most rates increased to a similar extent regardless of SES. However, rates of current smoking decreased only among those from higher SES groups. In addition, increases in 'cannabis-only' were greater among higher SES groups while use of illicit drugs other than cannabis increased more in lower SES groups. Conclusion Marked increases in female substance use and sexual risk behaviours have implications for the long-term health and wellbeing of young women. More effective preventive measures are needed to reduce risk behaviour uptake throughout adolescence and into early adulthood. Public health strategies should reflect both the widespread prevalence of risk behaviour in young people as

  19. Medical rehabilitation in low and middle income countries for adult acquired disability: challenges posed by rapidity of health system change and position on the individualistic-collectivist axis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl Sandin


    Full Text Available Chronic illness prevalence has rapidly increased in low or middle income countries (LMIC and with it, the need for medical rehabilitation for adults with acquired conditions that stem from aging and long-term conditions. While Western medical rehabilitation programs have had at least two generations to develop, in LMIC, post-acute health care delivery change has been much more rapid. As a result, there has been little opportunity for models of medical rehabilitation to deliberately emerge in LMIC that reflect societal values. While adaptation of an independence-foremost model of medical rehabilitation may succeed in non-Western societies, there is a risk that adaptation of such a model will be ineffective where many value collectivism more than individualism. The rapid change in medical rehabilitation service delivery in LMIC gives Christian providers and organizations an opportunity to pause and reflect whether the dominant Western medical rehabilitation paradigm serves LMIC cultures and reflects Biblical principles.

  20. Nowhere to Go but Up: Impacts of Climate Change on Demographics of a Short-Range Endemic (Crotalus willardi obscurus in the Sky-Islands of Southwestern North America.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A Davis

    Full Text Available Biodiversity elements with narrow niches and restricted distributions (i.e., 'short range endemics,' SREs are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The New Mexico Ridge-nosed Rattlesnake (Crotalus willardi obscurus, CWO, an SRE listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act within three sky islands of southwestern North America, is constrained at low elevation by drought and at high elevation by wildfire. We combined long-term recapture and molecular data with demographic and niche modeling to gauge its climate-driven status, distribution, and projected longevity. The largest population (Animas is numerically constricted (N = 151, with few breeding adults (Nb = 24 and an elevated inbreeding coefficient (ΔF = 0.77; 100 years. Mean home range (0.07 km2 is significantly smaller compared to other North American rattlesnakes, and movements are within, not among sky islands. Demographic values, when gauged against those displayed by other endangered/Red-Listed reptiles [e.g., Loggerhead Sea Turtle (Caretta caretta], are either comparable or markedly lower. Survival rate differs significantly between genders (femaledemographics, a situation comparable to that of the European Adder (Vipera berus, a conservation icon in southern Sweden. Genetic rescue, a management approach successfully employed in similar situations, is ill advised in this situation due to climate-driven habitat change in the sky islands. CWO is a rare organism in a unique environment, with a conserved niche and a predisposition towards extinction. It is a bellwether for

  1. Rapid response to intensive treatment for bulimia nervosa and purging disorder: A randomized controlled trial of a CBT intervention to facilitate early behavior change. (United States)

    MacDonald, Danielle E; McFarlane, Traci L; Dionne, Michelle M; David, Lauren; Olmsted, Marion P


    Rapid response to cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) for eating disorders (i.e., rapid and substantial change to key eating disorder behaviors in the initial weeks of treatment) robustly predicts good outcome at end-of-treatment and in follow up. The objective of this study was to determine whether rapid response to day hospital (DH) eating disorder treatment could be facilitated using a brief adjunctive CBT intervention focused on early change. 44 women (average age 27.3 [8.4]; 75% White, 6.3% Black, 6.9% Asian) were randomly assigned to 1 of 2 4-session adjunctive interventions: CBT focused on early change, or motivational interviewing (MI). DH was administered as usual. Outcomes included binge/purge frequency, Eating Disorder Examination-Questionnaire and Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale. Intent-to-treat analyses were used. The CBT group had a higher rate of rapid response (95.7%) compared to MI (71.4%; p = .04, V = .33). Those who received CBT also had fewer binge/purge episodes (p = .02) in the first 4 weeks of DH. By end-of-DH, CBT participants made greater improvements on overvaluation of weight and shape (p = .008), and emotion regulation (ps .05). The results of this study demonstrate that rapid response can be clinically facilitated using a CBT intervention that explicitly encourages early change. This provides the foundation for future research investigating whether enhancing rates of rapid response using such an intervention results in improved longer term outcomes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Shifts in hatch dates do not provide pied flycatchers with a rapid ontogenetic route to adjust offspring time schedules to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouwehand, Janne; Burger, Claudia; Both, Christiaan

    1. Environments change rapidly, and it is unclear whether organisms with complex life-styles, such as avian migrants, are able to adjust sufficiently. For understanding human impacts on ecosystem functioning, it is crucial to understand how well, and by which mechanisms species are able to adapt. 2.

  3. Three-dimensional evaluation of soft tissue changes in the orofacial region after tooth-borne and bone-borne surgically assisted rapid maxillary expansion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nada, R.M.; Loon, B. van; Maal, T.J.J.; Berge, S.J.; Mostafa, Y.A.; Kuijpers-Jagtman, A.M.; Schols, J.G.J.H.


    OBJECTIVES: This study seeks to three-dimensionally assess soft tissue changes in the orofacial region following tooth-borne and bone-borne surgically assisted rapid maxillary expansion (SARME). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 40 skeletally mature patients with

  4. Changing water quality in the Middle Mahakam Lakes: Water quality trends in a context of rapid deforestation, mining and palm oil plantation development in Indonesia's Middle Mahakam Wetlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, E.B.P. de; Ragas, A.M.J.; Nooteboom, G.; Mursidi, M.


    The degradation of Indonesia's wetlands is continuing at a rapid pace. People living in the Middle Mahakam Lakes (MML) region, part of a major wetland area in Indonesia, have observed various negative changes in their local environment, especially with regard to water quality. We verify these local

  5. Gender inequalities from the demographic perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devedžić Mirjana


    Full Text Available The paper analyzes the meaning of the phrase "the woman’s status in the society" that is recognized in demography as an important cultural factor of demographic development and transitional changes. The analysis indicates qualitative shifts in the woman’s status and simultaneously reveals its importance at present, not only in traditional, but also in modern and developed societies. On the other hand, it explains the importance of sex as a biodemographic determinant, and introduces the concept of gender that sheds another light on the concepts of sex and woman’s status in the society and integrates them. Gender regimes that subsume the inferiority of women in public and private social structures are examined from demographic perspective, albeit only in those phenomenological aspects that can be supported by demographic research, theories, and analyses. To this end, the paper analyzes the effects of strengthening gender equalities on the fertility and mortality transitions, the gender’s impact on the population distribution by sex in South Asian countries, and highlights the key role of gender in interpreting certain social and economic structures. It also stresses the establishing of gender equality as an important element of population policies. The global dimension of the patriarchal society is illustrated through a series of examples of demographic phenomena from various societies. Gender regimes underlie all of these phenomena. The paper puts foreword certain theoretical hypotheses about gender inequalities, and finds their connections with demographic behaviors and demographic indicators. Finally, it summarizes the role of demography in gender (inequality research and the demographic perspective of the way and the speed the demographic equality is being established. Demography is seen as an irreplaceable discipline in examining gender inequalities, especially at the global level. With the advance of qualitative methods in demography

  6. Responsive survey design, demographic data collection, and models of demographic behavior. (United States)

    Axinn, William G; Link, Cynthia F; Groves, Robert M


    To address declining response rates and rising data-collection costs, survey methodologists have devised new techniques for using process data ("paradata") to address nonresponse by altering the survey design dynamically during data collection. We investigate the substantive consequences of responsive survey design-tools that use paradata to improve the representative qualities of surveys and control costs. By improving representation of reluctant respondents, responsive design can change our understanding of the topic being studied. Using the National Survey of Family Growth Cycle 6, we illustrate how responsive survey design can shape both demographic estimates and models of demographic behaviors based on survey data. By juxtaposing measures from regular and responsive data collection phases, we document how special efforts to interview reluctant respondents may affect demographic estimates. Results demonstrate the potential of responsive survey design to change the quality of demographic research based on survey data.

  7. Professionals and Power Vacuums on Demographic Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seabrooke, Leonard; Tsingou, Eleni

    on programs that aim to enable choice about childbearing; in concrete terms this means measures such as one-off payments, improving childcare availability, and addressing worklife balance concerns.1 As an issue, low fertility is seen as a particular problem for a number of European and East Asian advanced...

  8. Sustainable Fiscal Strategies under Changing Demographics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallett, Andrew Hughes; Hougaard Jensen, Svend E.; Vieira, Filipe


    This paper develops an overlapping generations model to evaluate, first, the steady state growthmaximizing level of public debt around which the economy needs to stabilise; second, how the optimal level of public debt varies as a function of key population parameters; third, how fiscal rules...... designed to stabilise the economy around that debt level need to vary with the population parameters; and, fourth, how the model performs as a reasonable and plausible representation of the economies that we might be concerned with. Finally, following the diminished fiscal space and flexibility...... that is created by deteriorating population parameters, some political economy perspectives are offered....

  9. Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming. (United States)

    Sheridan, Jennifer A; Caruso, Nicholas M; Apodaca, Joseph J; Rissler, Leslie J


    Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km 2 , and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901-1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961-2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in "space-for-time" studies where measures of a species' traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population

  10. Exchange of charges between fast ions and neutral atoms; Change de charges entre ions rapides et atomes neutres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geller, R [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Saclay(France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires


    In this paper, we summarize the most significant theoretical and experimental results obtained so far on the exchange of charges between fast ions and neutral atoms. (author) [French] Dans l'expose qui suit, nous resumons les resultats theoriques et experimentaux interessants obtenus jusqu'a nos jours dans le domaine de l'echange de charges entre ions rapides et atomes neutres. (auteur)

  11. Demographic Ageing on Croatian Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivo Nejašmić


    Full Text Available This paper analyses the changes in the population structure of the Croatian islands by age, warns of the degree of ageing, provides spatial differentiation of this process and presents perspective of ageing at the level of settlement. Typing of population ageing is based on scores and has seven types. The total island population in 2011 belongs to the type 5 – very old population. Almost a half of the settlements (out of 303 have been affected by the highest levels of ageing (types 6 and 7. It was found that a quarter of island settlements will become “dead villages” in a foreseeable future; most of them are on small islands but also in the interior of larger islands. These are villages decaying in every respect, in which the way of life, as we know it, veins and goes out. The present ageing villagers are their last residents in most cases. Eve¬rything suggests that demographic recovery of the islands is not possible with the forces in situ. It is important to strike a balance between the needs and opportunities in order to successfully organize life on the islands, both small and large ones, and the fact is that there is a continuing disparity, which is especially profound in small islands. A sensitive and selective approach is needed to overcome the unfavourable demographic trends. Therefore it is necessary to respect the particularities of indi¬vidual islands and island groups in devising development strategy. Solutions to the problems must come of the local and wider community in synergy with relevant professional and scientific institutions. However, if the solutions are not found or measures do not give results, if the islands are left to desorganisation and senilisation, a part of the islands will become a wasteland. With regard to the value of this area whose wealth are people in the first place, this would be an intolerable civilization decline.

  12. Demographics and remote locations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coppus, G. [Dynawise Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)


    Within the next decade, the number of people leaving the workforce will exceed the number of new entrants. The demand for workers is expected to increase in Alberta due to oil sands industry growth. Sixty-four per cent of all responding federal, provincial, and municipal government organizations have reported shortages in their work environments, and almost 8 in 10 organizations predict they will continue to be understaffed in the next 3 to 5 years. Tightness in the general labour market will have an impact on employers in remote locations, and planning is essential to avoid the creation of a mercenary culture and a reliance on compensation. Challenges found in remote locations include high turnover rates among recent hires; critical gaps in service length; aggressive retirement; and the fact that the local population is often seen as unqualified for many industrial jobs. This Power Point presentation suggested that although decisions to join or quit a company are often based on considerations such as the organizational environment and amount of compensation, the relationship between employees and management is the most important attribute in many career decisions. Rigorous quantitative analysis of current demographics combined with forecasting analysis may help to forestall recruitment difficulties for many companies. Productivity analyses, and the effects of work overload on absenteeism, attrition and quality of workmanship must also be examined. Many companies are now focusing on retention and development strategies on mid-career staff to address depletion, as well as redesigning procedures to operate with less skilled staff. It was concluded that extra efforts are now being made to attract non-traditional employees, and non-traditional employment models are being considered by some companies. refs., tabs., figs.

  13. Is the demographic dividend an education dividend? (United States)

    Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús; Lutz, Wolfgang; Sanderson, Warren


    The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demography and population economics literature. The beneficial effect of changes in age structure after a decrease in fertility has become known as the "demographic dividend." In this article, we reassess the empirical evidence on the associations among economic growth, changes in age structure, labor force participation, and educational attainment. Using a global panel of countries, we find that after the effect of human capital dynamics is controlled for, no evidence exists that changes in age structure affect labor productivity. Our results imply that improvements in educational attainment are the key to explaining productivity and income growth and that a substantial portion of the demographic dividend is an education dividend.

  14. Demographic Consequences of Defeating Aging


    Gavrilov, Leonid A.; Gavrilova, Natalia S.


    A common objection against starting a large-scale biomedical war on aging is the fear of catastrophic population consequences (overpopulation). This fear is only exacerbated by the fact that no detailed demographic projections for radical life extension scenario have been conducted so far. This study explores different demographic scenarios and population projections, in order to clarify what could be the demographic consequences of a successful biomedical war on aging. A general conclusion o...

  15. Responses of antennal campaniform sensilla to rapid temperature changes in ground beetles of the tribe platynini with different habitat preferences and daily activity rhythms. (United States)

    Must, Anne; Merivee, Enno; Luik, Anne; Mänd, Marika; Heidemaa, Mikk


    Responses of temperature sensitive (cold) cells from the antenna of ground beetles (tribe Platynini) were compared in species with different ecological preferences and daily activity rhythms. Action potential rates were characterized at various temperatures (ranges 23-39 degrees C) and during rapid changes in it (Deltat=0.5-15 degrees C). The stationary firing frequencies were nearly twice as high in eurythermic open field ground beetles Agonum muelleri and Anchomenus dorsalis (firing rates ranging from 22 to 47imp/s) than in a stenothermic forest species Platynus assimilis. In the eurythermic species, the firing rate did not significantly depend on temperature (Anchomenus dorsalis range of 23-27 degrees C and Agonum muelleri range of 23-33 degrees C) but plots of firing rate versus temperature showed rapid declines when lethally high temperatures were approached. In contrast, a nearly linear decline of the firing rate/temperature curve was observed in Platynus assimilis. Responses to rapid temperature decreases were also considerably higher in eurythermic species. Both the peak frequency of the initial burst (maximum 420-650Hz) as well as the sustained discharge in the first 4s of the response were higher than in Platynus assimilis. Long silent periods, lasting up to several seconds, that occurred at the beginning of the response to rapid warming were significantly shorter in Agonum muelleri and Anchomenus dorsalis compared to Platynus assimilis. These findings suggest that the responses of thermoreceptors to temperature changes may be correlated with specific ecological preferences.

  16. [The beginning of the Cuban demographic revolution]. (United States)

    Hernandez Castellon, R


    The characteristics of the Cuban demographic revolution associated with the main economic, political, and social changes in the country are analyzed. The authors begin with a brief historical outline of the political-economic situation in the country in the middle of the 19th century. There is emphasis on the dependency of the Cuban economy and its monoproducer nature (with sugar being the major export). This was due to the Spanish colonization and to the subsequent American neocolonization. The discovery of the cause for yellow fever by a Cuban physician and the sanitation campaign conducted by the Americans contributed to a diminishing of mortality. A great migratory flow occurred due to the price of sugar in the world market. This must have influenced Cuban demographic patterns which are a major factor linked to the demographic revolution. The influence on proliferation of urbanization and educational trends is emphasized. The low participation in economic activities of women during the early part of the century did affect fertility levels. The trends in mortality throughout the period 1907-43 are pointed out. It was found that 1 major aspect which had a bearing on Cuban demographic patterns was the 2 large migratory flows. An analysis of growth rates in the population--which also confirms the demographic changes in Cuba--is presented. It is concluded that the 4th decade of this century witnessed Cuba's entry in a new stage of the demographic revolution, a stage in which decreased fertility and mortality go together to create a new period. (author's)

  17. Changes in biochemical and microbiological parameters during the period of rapid composting of dairy manure with rice chaff. (United States)

    Liu, Dongyang; Zhang, Ruifu; Wu, Hongsheng; Xu, Dabing; Tang, Zhu; Yu, Guanghui; Xu, Zhihui; Shen, Qirong


    Various parameters were measured during the period of composting of dairy manure and rice chaff in different ratios (dairy manure/rice chaff=V/V, pile 1: 75/25; pile 2: 80/20; pile 3: 85/15) to evaluate their suitability as indicators for the composting process. The temperature in pile 1 increased rapidly and remained above 60 °C for 30 days, while the temperature in pile 3 increased slowly relative to the other two piles. Furthermore, the degradation of organic substrates, as indicated by the reduction of C/N ratio, was rapid in pile 1 (below 20% 28 days after beginning of the composting). The major fluctuations of various water-soluble fractions in all piles were observed during the first 3 weeks, and the results in general showed that the highest microbial populations and enzymatic activities also appeared in this phase. Various parameters indicated that the rapid composting method was a feasible one for treating agricultural wastes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Prevalence of obesity, central obesity, and associated socio-demographic variables in Syrian women using different anthropometric indicators


    Bakir M Adel; Hammad Kholoud; Mohammad Loreen


    The prevalence of overweight and obesity is increasing globally in both developing and developed countries, especially, those with rapid cultural and social changes. The aims of current study were twofold: (a) to examine, for the first time in Syria, the prevalence of overweight, obesity and central obesity in Syrian women and obesity-related socio-demographic determinants, and (b) to establish a base line data about obesity related determinants needed to develop appropriate treatment and pre...

  19. Demographic Composition of the Online Buyers in Turkey


    Sinan NARDALI


    Demographic variables may have an impact on Internet usage patterns. Online buyers’ characteristics keeps changing time along with the shifting dynamics of Turkish consumers’ demographic profile and day by day online shopping becomes a safe and popular option in Turkey. Current study investigates demographic composition of the online buyers that influence consumer attitudes towards online shopping behavior in Izmir, the third largest city in Turkey. This study examines attitudes toward online...

  20. A Community Patient Demographic System


    Gabler, James M.; Simborg, Donald W.


    A Community Patient Demographic System is described. Its purpose is to link patient identification, demographic and insurance information among multiple organizations in a community or among multiple registration systems within the same organization. This function requires that there be a competent patient identification methodology and clear definition of local responsibilities for number assignment and database editing.

  1. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture. (United States)

    Querbes, Adrien; Vaesen, Krist; Houkes, Wybo


    Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

  2. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrien Querbes

    Full Text Available Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

  3. Environmental impacts of rapid changes in water level; Milj#Latin Small Letter O With Stroke#konsekvenser av raske vannstandsendringer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harby, Atle [Sintef Energy, Trondheim (Norway); Arnekleiv, Jo [NTNU, Trondheim (Norway); Bogen, Jim [NVE, Oslo (Norway)


    Flexible operation and peak regulation of hydropower plants (hydropeaking) leads to rapid changes in water levels and water discharge. Due to an increasing share of intermittent energy sources as wind and solar energy in Norway and Europe, we expect to see more flexible operation and increased use of hydropeaking in Norwegian hydropower plants. Environmental impacts will vary depending on local conditions and hydro operations. Some of the environmental impacts of hydropeaking and rapid changes in water level and discharge are well known, where stranding of fish has been most studied, both nationally and internationally. However, there are large knowledge gaps, and there are very few studies of rivers, lakes, reservoirs and fjords downstream of peaking hydropower plants. This report summarizes the knowledge status and presents results from three Norwegian studies with different physical conditions and hydro operations. Not all previous studies have given clear and unambiguous results, but generally we can summarize as follows: Peaking hydropower plants discharging into rivers have considerable higher potential to cause negative effects on physical and biological conditions compared to hydropower plants discharging into reservoirs, lakes and fjords. If it is technically possible to implement slow changes in hydropower production, it will reduce the negative effects on the entire ecosystem. Reducing the rate of change in water level to less than 13 cm per hour gives a significantly reduced risk for stranding of salmonid fish. As far as we know there are not similarly definite guidelines for increasing water level, or for other fish species than salmonids. Fish are more vulnerable to rapid changes in water level during winter than other seasons in Norway due to the fact that low water temperatures directly and indirectly lead to lower mobility in fish. Hydropeaking and flexible operation not leading to significant changes in wetted area will generally not have greater

  4. Demographic changes and in-house adaptation strategies with respect to high-qualified target groups of industrial employees; Demographische Veraenderungen und betriebliche Anpassungsstrategien im Hinblick auf spezielle hochqualifizierte Beschaeftigtengruppen in Industrieunternehmen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nawroth, K.


    In view of the current demographic changes and their effects on the occupational biographies, the author investigated the occupation models offered in Germany for young job starters, women getting back to work in innovative industries after raising children, and aged staff members of production companies in Germany and the acceptance these models are getting by the target groups. The focus is on scientists and engineers in research, development and construction in industrial enterprises. Case studies in six older and more recent innovative enterprises in East and West Germany are presented. [German] Diese Arbeit wendet sich vor dem Hintergrund der demographischen Veraenderungen und den damit zusammenhaengenden Erwerbsbiographien hochqualifizierter Mitarbeiter der momentan brisanten Frage zu, welche Beschaeftigungsmodelle bezueglich junger Berufseinsteiger, nach einer Berufsunterbrechung in innovative Bereiche zurueckkehrender Frauen und aelterer Mitarbeiter in Unternehmen des produzierenden Gewerbes in Deutschland praktiziert werden und inwieweit diese fuer den Einsatz dieser Gruppen geeignet sind. Dabei werden Naturwissenschaftler(innen) und Ingenieur(inn)e(n) betrachtet, die in Forschung, Entwicklung und Konstruktion der Industrieunternehmen taetig sind. Im Zentrum der empirischen Erhebungen zum Prozess betrieblicher Anpassungsstrategien stehen betriebliche Fallstudien, die sich auf sechs juengere und aeltere innovative Unternehmen in west- und ostdeutschen Bundeslaendern erstrecken. (orig.)

  5. The human genome and sport, including epigenetics and athleticogenomics: a brief look at a rapidly changing field. (United States)

    Sharp, N C Craig


    Since Hugh Montgomery discovered the first of what are now nearly 200 "fitness genes", together with rapid advances in human gene therapy, there is now a real prospect of the use of genes, genetic elements, and/or cells that have the capacity to enhance athletic performance (to paraphrase the World Anti-Doping Agency's definition of gene doping). This overview covers the main areas of interface between genetics and sport, attempts to provide a context against which gene doping may be viewed, and suggests a futuristic legitimate use of genomic (and possibly epigenetic) information in sport.

  6. La hospitalización domiciliaria ante los cambios demográficos y nuevos retos de salud Home hospitalization in light of demographic changes and new health challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosângela Minardi Mitre Cotta


    hospitalaria, que obviamente repercute en los pacientes y en la calidad y eficacia de la asistencia sanitaria. Asimismo, se verificó que la HD encuentra todo su significado en la población adulta o anciana con múltiples enfermedades crónicas degenerativas o terminales, en la que ha demostrado ser una herramienta eficiente. Conclusiones. Se destaca la necesidad de crear o potenciar los canales y mecanismos de comunicación interinstitucional que garanticen la continuidad del proceso asistencial. La asistencia continua y eficaz de la salud y bienestar del anciano requiere diferentes niveles de intervención sanitaria y debe estar basada en lo que hoy es un objetivo inaplazable: la atención integral, adecuada, de calidad, humanizada, oportuna y basada en una asistencia integrada y coordinada entre los dos principales niveles de atención sanitaria. Son estos factores los que, en última instancia, determinan la calidad de la asistencia y la capacidad resolutiva de los problemas asistenciales planteados en la atención al paciente geriátrico.Objective. Today, the most important demographic change taking place is the rapid aging of the population. While this phenomenon is having a growing and profound impact on all spheres of society, its greatest impact is in the health area, affecting all levels of health care and leading to the need for new resources and new structures. Out of that, in many countries have come different alternatives as well as in-patient, outpatient, and in-home programs that are geared toward improving health care and helping set priorities. One of these new initiatives is home hospitalization, or home health care. One objective of this study was to describe and analyze the characteristics of a population in Spain that was assisted through home hospitalization (HH. Another objective of the study was to comment on the role that HH can play as a mechanism for integration and coordination between health care levels, in the face of the challenges occurring

  7. The Chemical Deposition Method for the Decoration of Palladium Particles on Carbon Nanofibers with Rapid Conductivity Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hoik Lee


    Full Text Available Palladium (Pd metal is well-known for hydrogen sensing material due to its high sensitivity and selectivity toward hydrogen, and is able to detect hydrogen at near room temperature. In this work, palladium-doped carbon nanofibers (Pd/CNFs were successfully produced in a facile manner via electrospinning. Well-organized and uniformly distributed Pd was observed in microscopic images of the resultant nanofibers. Hydrogen causes an increment in the volume of Pd due to the ability of hydrogen atoms to occupy the octahedral interstitial positions within its face centered cubic lattice structure, resulting in the resistance transition of Pd/CNFs. The resistance variation was around 400%, and it responded rapidly within 1 min, even in 5% hydrogen atmosphere conditions at room temperature. This fibrous hybrid material platform will open a new and practical route and stimulate further researches on the development of hydrogen sensing materials with rapid response, even to low concentrations of hydrogen in an atmosphere.

  8. The Background to Language Change in Hong Kong. (United States)

    Harrison, Godfrey; So, Lydia K. H.


    Seeks to link the rapid pace of societal change in Hong Kong over the past 50 years with changing patterns of language use there. Shows how the country has changed demographically, economically, politically, socially, and technologically. (16 references) (Author/CK)

  9. The response of southern California ecosystems to Younger Dryas-like rapid climate change: Comparison of glacial terminations 1 and 5. (United States)

    Heusser, L. E.; Hendy, I. L.


    The Younger Dryas is a well-known rapid climatic cooling that interrupted the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 1-2 deglacial warming of Termination 1. This cool event has been associated with ice sheet readvance, meridional overturning, circulation changes, and southward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. In Southern California, the Younger Dryas has been associated with cooler SST, low marine productivity, a well-ventilated oxygen minimum zone, and a wetter climate. Similar rapid cooling events have been found at other terminations including Termination 5 at the MIS 11-12 deglaciation (~425 Ka) identified by ice rafting events in the North Atlantic. Here we present new pollen census data from a unique suite of cores taken from the sub-oxic sediments of Santa Barbara Basin (MV0508-15JC, MV0805-20JC, MV0508-33JC, 29JC and 21JC). These short cores, collected on a truncated anticline within SBB, provide the opportunity to examine the response of southern California terrestrial and marine ecosystems to rapid climate change during the MIS 11-12 deglaciation (Termination 5), which is identified by a bioturbated interval within a sequence of laminated sediments. During Termination 1, changes in Southern California precipitation are reflected in pollen- based reconstructions Southern California vegetation. The high precipitation of glacial montane-coniferous assemblages of pine (Pinus) and Juniper (Juniperus/Calocedrus) transitions into interglacial drought, as expresssed by arid oak (Quercus)/chaparral vegetation. The Younger Dryas interrupts the transition as a high-amplitude pulse in pine associated with increased Gramineae (grass). Termination 5 differs, as the high precipitation of glacial montane-coniferous assemblages do not transition into arid oak/chaparral vegetation. However, a Younger Dryas-like rapid climate event was associated with increased pine and grass.

  10. [Some unique characteristics of the demographic situation in Russia]. (United States)

    Brui, B; Mikhailov, E


    The authors briefly describe the demographic situation in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic, using data from the 1989 census and current demographic research. Changes in the birth rate and population growth are examined, and migration flows in the various regions of the republic are compared. Factors affecting low birth rates are analyzed, and trends