WorldWideScience

Sample records for rapid assessment forecasting

  1. Flood Foresight: A near-real time flood monitoring and forecasting tool for rapid and predictive flood impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Shelton, Kay; Wood, Elizabeth; Berry, Robert; Bevington, John; Hankin, Barry; Lewis, Gavin; Gubbin, Andrew; Griffiths, Samuel; Barnard, Paul; Pinnell, Marc; Huyck, Charles

    2017-04-01

    The hours and days immediately after a major flood event are often chaotic and confusing, with first responders rushing to mobilise emergency responders, provide alleviation assistance and assess loss to assets of interest (e.g., population, buildings or utilities). Preparations in advance of a forthcoming event are becoming increasingly important; early warning systems have been demonstrated to be useful tools for decision markers. The extent of damage, human casualties and economic loss estimates can vary greatly during an event, and the timely availability of an accurate flood extent allows emergency response and resources to be optimised, reduces impacts, and helps prioritise recovery. In the insurance sector, for example, insurers are under pressure to respond in a proactive manner to claims rather than waiting for policyholders to report losses. Even though there is a great demand for flood inundation extents and severity information in different sectors, generating flood footprints for large areas from hydraulic models in real time remains a challenge. While such footprints can be produced in real time using remote sensing, weather conditions and sensor availability limit their ability to capture every single flood event across the globe. In this session, we will present Flood Foresight (www.floodforesight.com), an operational tool developed to meet the universal requirement for rapid geographic information, before, during and after major riverine flood events. The tool provides spatial data with which users can measure their current or predicted impact from an event - at building, basin, national or continental scales. Within Flood Foresight, the Screening component uses global rainfall predictions to provide a regional- to continental-scale view of heavy rainfall events up to a week in advance, alerting the user to potentially hazardous situations relevant to them. The Forecasting component enhances the predictive suite of tools by providing a local

  2. Assessment of storm forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Huus Bjerge, Martin

    When wind speed exceeds a certain value, wind turbines shut-down in order to protect their structure. This leads to sudden wind plants shut down and to new challenges concerning the secure operation of the pan-European electric system with future large scale offshore wind power. This task aims...... stopped, completely or partially, producing due to extreme wind speeds. Wind speed and power measurements from those events are presented and compared to the forecast available at Energinet.dk. The analysis looked at wind speed and wind power forecast. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the wind...... to consider it an EWP) and that the available wind speed forecasts are given as a mean wind speed over a rather large area. At wind power level, the analysis shows that prediction of accurate production levels from a wind farm experiencing EWP is rather poor. This is partially because the power curve...

  3. Forecasting wildlife response to rapid warming in the Alaskan Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Hemert, Caroline R.; Flint, Paul L.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Koch, Joshua C.; Atwood, Todd C.; Oakley, Karen L.; Pearce, John M.

    2015-01-01

    Arctic wildlife species face a dynamic and increasingly novel environment because of climate warming and the associated increase in human activity. Both marine and terrestrial environments are undergoing rapid environmental shifts, including loss of sea ice, permafrost degradation, and altered biogeochemical fluxes. Forecasting wildlife responses to climate change can facilitate proactive decisions that balance stewardship with resource development. In this article, we discuss the primary and secondary responses to physical climate-related drivers in the Arctic, associated wildlife responses, and additional sources of complexity in forecasting wildlife population outcomes. Although the effects of warming on wildlife populations are becoming increasingly well documented in the scientific literature, clear mechanistic links are often difficult to establish. An integrated science approach and robust modeling tools are necessary to make predictions and determine resiliency to change. We provide a conceptual framework and introduce examples relevant for developing wildlife forecasts useful to management decisions.

  4. Assessing flood forecast uncertainty with fuzzy arithmetic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Bruyn Bertrand

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Providing forecasts for flow rates and water levels during floods have to be associated with uncertainty estimates. The forecast sources of uncertainty are plural. For hydrological forecasts (rainfall-runoff performed using a deterministic hydrological model with basic physics, two main sources can be identified. The first obvious source is the forcing data: rainfall forecast data are supplied in real time by meteorological forecasting services to the Flood Forecasting Service within a range between a lowest and a highest predicted discharge. These two values define an uncertainty interval for the rainfall variable provided on a given watershed. The second source of uncertainty is related to the complexity of the modeled system (the catchment impacted by the hydro-meteorological phenomenon, the number of variables that may describe the problem and their spatial and time variability. The model simplifies the system by reducing the number of variables to a few parameters. Thus it contains an intrinsic uncertainty. This model uncertainty is assessed by comparing simulated and observed rates for a large number of hydro-meteorological events. We propose a method based on fuzzy arithmetic to estimate the possible range of flow rates (and levels of water making a forecast based on possible rainfalls provided by forcing and uncertainty model. The model uncertainty is here expressed as a range of possible values. Both rainfall and model uncertainties are combined with fuzzy arithmetic. This method allows to evaluate the prediction uncertainty range. The Flood Forecasting Service of Oise and Aisne rivers, in particular, monitors the upstream watershed of the Oise at Hirson. This watershed’s area is 310 km2. Its response time is about 10 hours. Several hydrological models are calibrated for flood forecasting in this watershed and use the rainfall forecast. This method presents the advantage to be easily implemented. Moreover, it permits to be carried out

  5. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  6. An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Salamon, Peter; Bianchi, Alessandra; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc

    2017-07-01

    The development of methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is a key step to increase the usefulness of flood early warning systems and is crucial for effective emergency response and flood impact mitigation. Currently, flood early warning systems rarely include real-time components to assess potential impacts generated by forecasted flood events. To overcome this limitation, this study describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Daily streamflow forecasts produced for major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage and affected population, infrastructures and cities.An extensive testing of the operational procedure has been carried out by analysing the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-based and report-based flood extent data, while modelled estimates of economic damage and affected population are compared against ground-based estimations. Finally, we evaluate the skill of risk estimates derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations of probabilistic forecasts. Results highlight the potential of the real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

  7. Cloud archiving and data mining of High-Resolution Rapid Refresh forecast model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaylock, Brian K.; Horel, John D.; Liston, Samuel T.

    2017-12-01

    Weather-related research often requires synthesizing vast amounts of data that need archival solutions that are both economical and viable during and past the lifetime of the project. Public cloud computing services (e.g., from Amazon, Microsoft, or Google) or private clouds managed by research institutions are providing object data storage systems potentially appropriate for long-term archives of such large geophysical data sets. We illustrate the use of a private cloud object store developed by the Center for High Performance Computing (CHPC) at the University of Utah. Since early 2015, we have been archiving thousands of two-dimensional gridded fields (each one containing over 1.9 million values over the contiguous United States) from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) data assimilation and forecast modeling system. The archive is being used for retrospective analyses of meteorological conditions during high-impact weather events, assessing the accuracy of the HRRR forecasts, and providing initial and boundary conditions for research simulations. The archive is accessible interactively and through automated download procedures for researchers at other institutions that can be tailored by the user to extract individual two-dimensional grids from within the highly compressed files. Characteristics of the CHPC object storage system are summarized relative to network file system storage or tape storage solutions. The CHPC storage system is proving to be a scalable, reliable, extensible, affordable, and usable archive solution for our research.

  8. Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Natasha B.; Melcher, Cynthia P.

    2015-08-28

    The Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment was conducted in partnership with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The overall goals of the BLM Rapid Ecoregional Assessments (REAs) are to identify important ecosystems and wildlife habitats at broad spatial scales; identify where these resources are at risk from Change Agents, including development, wildfire, invasive species, disease and climate change; quantify cumulative effects of anthropogenic stressors; and assess current levels of risk to ecological resources across a range of spatial scales and jurisdictional boundaries by assessing all lands within an ecoregion. There are several components of the REAs. Management Questions, developed by the BLM and stakeholders for the ecoregion, identify the regionally significant information needed for addressing land-management responsibilities. Conservation Elements represent regionally significant species and ecological communities that are of management concern. Change Agents that currently affect or are likely to affect the condition of species and communities in the future are identified and assessed. REAs also identify areas that have high conservation potential that are referred to as “large intact areas.” At the ecoregion level, the ecological value of large intact areas is based on the assumption that because these areas have not been greatly altered by human activities (such as development), they are more likely to contain a variety of plant and animal communities and to be resilient and resistant to changes resulting from natural disturbances such as fire, insect outbreaks, and disease.

  9. Uncertainty Assessment: Reservoir Inflow Forecasting with Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and HEC-HMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheng-Chi Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available During an extreme event, having accurate inflow forecasting with enough lead time helps reservoir operators decrease the impact of floods downstream. Furthermore, being able to efficiently operate reservoirs could help maximize flood protection while saving water for drier times of the year. This study combines ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts and a hydrological model to provide a 3-day reservoir inflow in the Shihmen Reservoir, Taiwan. A total of six historical typhoons were used for model calibration, validation, and application. An understanding of cascaded uncertainties from the numerical weather model through the hydrological model is necessary for a better use for forecasting. This study thus conducted an assessment of forecast uncertainty on magnitude and timing of peak and cumulative inflows. It found that using the ensemble-mean had less uncertainty than randomly selecting individual member. The inflow forecasts with shorter length of cumulative time had a higher uncertainty. The results showed that using the ensemble precipitation forecasts with the hydrological model would have the advantage of extra lead time and serve as a valuable reference for operating reservoirs.

  10. Reference Scenario Forecasting: A New Approach to Transport Project Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen; Skougaard, Britt Zoëga

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Normally, transport project assessment is based upon a cost-benefit approach where evaluation criteria such as net present values are obtained. Recent research...... construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This stochastic approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA), thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts on the preliminary...

  11. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR...... on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

  12. Assessing Hourly Precipitation Forecast Skill with the Fractions Skill Score

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Bin; Zhang, Bo

    2018-02-01

    Statistical methods for category (yes/no) forecasts, such as the Threat Score, are typically used in the verification of precipitation forecasts. However, these standard methods are affected by the so-called "double-penalty" problem caused by slight displacements in either space or time with respect to the observations. Spatial techniques have recently been developed to help solve this problem. The fractions skill score (FSS), a neighborhood spatial verification method, directly compares the fractional coverage of events in windows surrounding the observations and forecasts. We applied the FSS to hourly precipitation verification by taking hourly forecast products from the GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation Prediction System) regional model and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the National Meteorological Information Center of China during July and August 2016, and investigated the difference between these results and those obtained with the traditional category score. We found that the model spin-up period affected the assessment of stability. Systematic errors had an insignificant role in the fraction Brier score and could be ignored. The dispersion of observations followed a diurnal cycle and the standard deviation of the forecast had a similar pattern to the reference maximum of the fraction Brier score. The coefficient of the forecasts and the observations is similar to the FSS; that is, the FSS may be a useful index that can be used to indicate correlation. Compared with the traditional skill score, the FSS has obvious advantages in distinguishing differences in precipitation time series, especially in the assessment of heavy rainfall.

  13. An Open-Book Modular Watershed Modeling Framework for Rapid Prototyping of GPM- based Flood Forecasting in International River Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katiyar, N.; Hossain, F.

    2006-05-01

    accuracy. Through assessment of our proposed modular modeling framework, we present our initial understanding in resolving the fundamental question - Can a parsimonious open-book watershed modeling framework be a physically consistent proxy for rapid and global identification of IRBs in greater need of a GPM-based flood forecasting system?

  14. Hanford's self-assessment of the solid waste forecast process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauth, J.; Skumanich, M.; Morgan, J.

    1996-01-01

    In fiscal year (FY) 1995 the forecast process used at Hanford to project future solid waste volumes was evaluated. Data on current and future solid waste generation are used by Hanford site planners to determine near-term and long-term planning needs. Generators who plan to ship their waste to Hanford's Solid Waste Program for treatment, storage, and disposal provide volume information on the types of waste that could be potentially generated, waste characteristics, and container types. Generators also provide limited radionuclide data and supporting assumptions. A self-assessment of the forecast process identified many effective working elements, including a well-established and systematic process for data collection, analysis and reporting; sufficient resources to obtain the necessary information; and dedicated support and analytic staff. Several areas for improvement were identified, including the need to improve confidence in the forecast data, integrate forecast data with other site-level and national data calls, enhance the electronic data collection system, and streamline the forecast process

  15. Assessments of Total Lightning Data Utility in Weather Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buechler, Dennis E.; Goodman, Steve; LaCasse, Katherine; Blakeslee, Richard; Darden, Chris

    2005-01-01

    National Weather Service forecasters in Huntsville, Alabama have had access to total lightning data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) since 2003. Forecasters can monitor real-time total lightning observations on their AWIPS (Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) workstations. The lightning data is used to supplement other observations such as radar and satellite data. The lightning data is updated every 2 min, providing more timely evidence of storm growth or decay than is available from 5 min radar scans. Total lightning observations have been used to positively impact warning decisions in a number of instances. A number of approaches are being pursued to assess the usefulness of total lightning measurements to the operational forecasting community in the warning decision process. These approaches, which include both qualitative and quantitative assessment methods, will be discussed. submitted to the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data to be held in San Diego, CA January 9-13,2005. This will be a presentation and an extended abstract will be published on a CD available from the AMS.

  16. Latin America wind market assessment. Forecast 2013-2022

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-10-15

    Wind Power Activities by Country: Developers/Owners, Wind Plant Sizes, Wind Turbines Deployed, Commissioning Dates, Market Share, and Capacity Forecasts Latin American markets are a subject of intense interest from the global wind industry. Wind plant construction across Latin America is modest compared to the more established markets like the United States, Europe, and China, but it is an emerging market that is taking off at a rapid pace. The region has become the hottest alternative growth market for the wind energy industry at a time when growth rates in other markets are flat due to a variety of policy and macroeconomic challenges. Globalization is driving sustainable economic growth in most Latin American countries, resulting in greater energy demand. Wind is increasingly viewed as a valuable and essential answer to increasing electricity generation across most markets in Latin America. Strong wind resources, coupled with today's sophisticated wind turbines, are providing cost-effective generation that is competitive with fossil fuel generation. Most Latin American countries also rely heavily on hydroelectricity, which balances well with variable wind generation. Navigant Research forecasts that if most wind plants under construction with planned commissioning go online as scheduled, annual wind power installations in Latin America will grow from nearly 2.2 GW in 2013 to 4.3 GW by 2022. This Navigant Research report provides a comprehensive view of the wind energy market dynamics at play in Latin America. It offers a country-by-country analysis, outlining the key energy policies and development opportunities and barriers and identifying which companies own operational wind plants and which wind turbine vendors supplied those projects. Market forecasts for wind power installations, capacity, and market share in Latin America, segmented by country and company, extend through 2022. The report also offers an especially close analysis of Brazil and Mexico

  17. Overview, comparative assessment and recommendations of forecasting models for short-term water demand prediction

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Anele, AO

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available -term water demand (STWD) forecasts. In view of this, an overview of forecasting methods for STWD prediction is presented. Based on that, a comparative assessment of the performance of alternative forecasting models from the different methods is studied. Times...

  18. Beating the random walk: a performance assessment of long-term interest rate forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    den Butter, F.A.G.; Jansen, P.W.

    2013-01-01

    This article assesses the performance of a number of long-term interest rate forecast approaches, namely time series models, structural economic models, expert forecasts and combinations thereof. The predictive performance of these approaches is compared using outside sample forecast errors, where a

  19. A quality assessment of the MARS crop yield forecasting system for the European Union

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Velde, Marijn; Bareuth, Bettina

    2015-04-01

    Timely information on crop production forecasts can become of increasing importance as commodity markets are more and more interconnected. Impacts across large crop production areas due to (e.g.) extreme weather and pest outbreaks can create ripple effects that may affect food prices and availability elsewhere. The MARS Unit (Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS), DG Joint Research Centre, European Commission, has been providing forecasts of European crop production levels since 1993. The operational crop production forecasting is carried out with the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (M-CYFS). The M-CYFS is used to monitor crop growth development, evaluate short-term effects of anomalous meteorological events, and provide monthly forecasts of crop yield at national and European Union level. The crop production forecasts are published in the so-called MARS bulletins. Forecasting crop yield over large areas in the operational context requires quality benchmarks. Here we present an analysis of the accuracy and skill of past crop yield forecasts of the main crops (e.g. soft wheat, grain maize), throughout the growing season, and specifically for the final forecast before harvest. Two simple benchmarks to assess the skill of the forecasts were defined as comparing the forecasts to 1) a forecast equal to the average yield and 2) a forecast using a linear trend established through the crop yield time-series. These reveal a variability in performance as a function of crop and Member State. In terms of production, the yield forecasts of 67% of the EU-28 soft wheat production and 80% of the EU-28 maize production have been forecast superior to both benchmarks during the 1993-2013 period. In a changing and increasingly variable climate crop yield forecasts can become increasingly valuable - provided they are used wisely. We end our presentation by discussing research activities that could contribute to this goal.

  20. Forest Landscape Assessment Tool (FLAT): rapid assessment for land management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisa Ciecko; David Kimmett; Jesse Saunders; Rachael Katz; Kathleen L. Wolf; Oliver Bazinet; Jeffrey Richardson; Weston Brinkley; Dale J. Blahna

    2016-01-01

    The Forest Landscape Assessment Tool (FLAT) is a set of procedures and tools used to rapidly determine forest ecological conditions and potential threats. FLAT enables planners and managers to understand baseline conditions, determine and prioritize restoration needs across a landscape system, and conduct ongoing monitoring to achieve land management goals. The rapid...

  1. An Assessment of the Subseasonal Forecast Performance in the Extended Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinsky, E.; Zhu, Y.; Li, W.; Guan, H.; Melhauser, C.

    2017-12-01

    Optimal forecast quality is crucial for the preservation of life and property. Improving monthly forecast performance over both the tropics and extra-tropics requires attention to various physical aspects such as the representation of the underlying SST, model physics and the representation of the model physics uncertainty for an ensemble forecast system. This work focuses on the impact of stochastic physics, SST and the convection scheme on forecast performance for the sub-seasonal scale over the tropics and extra-tropics with emphasis on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). A 2-year period is evaluated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Three experiments with different configurations than the operational GEFS were performed to illustrate the impact of the stochastic physics, SST and convection scheme. These experiments are compared against a control experiment (CTL) which consists of the operational GEFS but its integration is extended from 16 to 35 days. The three configurations are: 1) SPs, which uses a Stochastically Perturbed Physics Tendencies (SPPT), Stochastic Perturbed Humidity (SHUM) and Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter (SKEB); 2) SPs+SST_bc, which uses a combination of SPs and a bias-corrected forecast SST from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2); and 3) SPs+SST_bc+SA_CV, which combines SPs, a bias-corrected forecast SST and a scale aware convection scheme. When comparing to the CTL experiment, SPs shows substantial improvement. The MJO skill has improved by about 4 lead days during the 2-year period. Improvement is also seen over the extra-tropics due to the updated stochastic physics, where there is a 3.1% and a 4.2% improvement during weeks 3 and 4 over the northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere, respectively. Improvement is also seen when the bias-corrected CFSv2 SST is combined with SPs. Additionally, forecast performance enhances when the scale aware

  2. Statistical and RBF NN models : providing forecasts and risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Marček, Milan

    2009-01-01

    Forecast accuracy of economic and financial processes is a popular measure for quantifying the risk in decision making. In this paper, we develop forecasting models based on statistical (stochastic) methods, sometimes called hard computing, and on a soft method using granular computing. We consider the accuracy of forecasting models as a measure for risk evaluation. It is found that the risk estimation process based on soft methods is simplified and less critical to the question w...

  3. Rapid knowledge assessment (RKA): Assessing students content knowledge through rapid, in class assessment of expertise

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, Erin

    Understanding how students go about problem solving in chemistry lends many possible advantages for interventions in teaching strategies for the college classroom. The work presented here is the development of an in-classroom, real-time, formative instrument to assess student expertise in chemistry with the purpose of developing classroom interventions. The development of appropriate interventions requires the understanding of how students go about starting to solve tasks presented to them, what their mental effort (load on working memory) is, and whether or not their performance was accurate. To measure this, the Rapid Knowledge Assessment (RKA) instrument uses clickers (handheld electronic instruments for submitting answers) as a means of data collection. The classroom data was used to develop an algorithm to deliver student assessment scores, which when correlated to external measure of standardized American Chemical Society (ACS) examinations and class score show a significant relationship between the accuracy of knowledge assessment (p=0.000). Use of eye-tracking technology and student interviews supports the measurements found in the classroom.

  4. A Prototype Regional GSI-based EnKF-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation System for the Rapid Refresh Forecasting System: Dual-Resolution Implementation and Testing Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Yujie; Xue, Ming; Zhu, Kefeng; Wang, Mingjun

    2018-05-01

    A dual-resolution (DR) version of a regional ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)-3D ensemble variational (3DEnVar) coupled hybrid data assimilation system is implemented as a prototype for the operational Rapid Refresh forecasting system. The DR 3DEnVar system combines a high-resolution (HR) deterministic background forecast with lower-resolution (LR) EnKF ensemble perturbations used for flow-dependent background error covariance to produce a HR analysis. The computational cost is substantially reduced by running the ensemble forecasts and EnKF analyses at LR. The DR 3DEnVar system is tested with 3-h cycles over a 9-day period using a 40/˜13-km grid spacing combination. The HR forecasts from the DR hybrid analyses are compared with forecasts launched from HR Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) 3D variational (3DVar) analyses, and single LR hybrid analyses interpolated to the HR grid. With the DR 3DEnVar system, a 90% weight for the ensemble covariance yields the lowest forecast errors and the DR hybrid system clearly outperforms the HR GSI 3DVar. Humidity and wind forecasts are also better than those launched from interpolated LR hybrid analyses, but the temperature forecasts are slightly worse. The humidity forecasts are improved most. For precipitation forecasts, the DR 3DEnVar always outperforms HR GSI 3DVar. It also outperforms the LR 3DEnVar, except for the initial forecast period and lower thresholds.

  5. Forecast simulation of rapidly-intensified typhoon in the Eddy-Rich Northwest Pacific region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyeong Ok; Yuk, Jin-Hee; Jung, Kyung Tae; Kuh Kang, Suk

    2017-04-01

    The real-time typhoon predictions in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) are being distributed by various agencies (for example, KMA, JMA, JTWC, NMC, CWB, HKO and PAGASA). Currently the movement of the typhoon can be predicted with an error of less than 100 km in 48 hours, however it is difficult to the predict of the intensity of the typhoon especially the Rapidly Intensified (RI) Typhoons. The mean occurrence of RI typhoon amounts to 5.4 times a year during 39 years (1977-2015), occupying 21% of typhoons in NWP. Especially the RI typhoon in the Eddy-Rich Northwest Pacific (ER-NWP) occurred 1.8 times a year, covering 29% of typhoons in ER-NWP. A RI typhoon, NEPARTAK (T201601), occurred in July 2016. It was formed in Caroline Islands and moved northwest, straightly heading for Taiwan. However, at the beginning stage many forecasting agencies predicts as move to the Yellow Sea. The accuracy of prediction data of the Typhoon NEPARTAK (T201601) from KMA, JMA and JTWC was compared with the adjusted best-track data from Digital-Typhoon (JMA-RSMC). The sequential prediction data are summarized with 6-hour interval from 3th to 10th July 2016.The JMA prediction of the typhoon track and the JTWC predictions of the maximum wind speed were found to be best. The numerical simulations using WRF model forced with NCEP GFS prediction data and microwave SST is compared. The simulations using one domain (D1), two domains (D2) using a moving nest scheme, and with or without the spectral nudging (-SN) are compared. Comparison of the errors on the track shows the differences of 100 km in 48-hour prediction and200 km in 72-hour prediction on average. The best results on the track prediction are shown in the D2 case of WRF model. However, underestimation of the maximum wind speed of WRF prediction still exists, obviously requiring better understanding of RI-related processes to improve the model prediction.

  6. Hydro-economic assessment of hydrological forecasting systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucher, M.-A.; Tremblay, D.; Delorme, L.; Perreault, L.; Anctil, F.

    2012-01-01

    SummaryAn increasing number of publications show that ensemble hydrological forecasts exhibit good performance when compared to observed streamflow. Many studies also conclude that ensemble forecasts lead to a better performance than deterministic ones. This investigation takes one step further by not only comparing ensemble and deterministic forecasts to observed values, but by employing the forecasts in a stochastic decision-making assistance tool for hydroelectricity production, during a flood event on the Gatineau River in Canada. This allows the comparison between different types of forecasts according to their value in terms of energy, spillage and storage in a reservoir. The motivation for this is to adopt the point of view of an end-user, here a hydroelectricity production society. We show that ensemble forecasts exhibit excellent performances when compared to observations and are also satisfying when involved in operation management for electricity production. Further improvement in terms of productivity can be reached through the use of a simple post-processing method.

  7. An Approach to Assess Observation Impact Based on Observation-Minus-Forecast Residuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todling, Ricardo

    2009-01-01

    Langland and Baker (2004) introduced an approach to assess the impact of observations on the forecasts. In that, a state-space aspect of the forecast is defined and a procedure is derived that relates changes in the aspect with changes in the initial conditions associated with the assimilation of observations) ultimately providing information about the impact of individual observations on the forecast. Some features of the approach are to be noted. The typical choice of forecast aspect employed in related works is rather arbitrary and leads to an incomplete assessment of the observing system. Furthermore, the state-space forecast aspect requires availability of a verification state that should ideally be uncorrelated with the forecast but in practice is not. Lastly, the approach involves the adjoint operator of the entire data assimilation system and as such it is constrained by the validity of this operator. In this presentation, an observation-space metric is used that, for a relatively time-homogeneous observing system, allows inferring observation impact on the forecast without some of the limitations above. Specifically, using observation-minus-forecast residuals leads to an approach with the following features: (i) it suggests a rather natural choice of forecast aspect, directly linked to the analysis system and providing full assessment of the observations; (ii) it naturally avoids introducing undesirable correlations in the forecast aspect by verifying against the observations; and (iii) it does not involve linearization and use of adjoints; therefore being applicable to any length of forecast. The state and observation-space approaches might be complementary to some degree, and involve different limitations and complexities. Illustrations are given using the NASA GEOS-5 data.

  8. An Assessment of the Skill of GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, Yoo-Geun; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Rienecker, Michele M.

    2013-01-01

    The seasonal forecast skill of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office coupled global climate model (CGCM) is evaluated based on an ensemble of 9-month lead forecasts for the period 1993 to 2010. The results from the current version (V2) of the CGCM consisting of the GEOS-5 AGM coupled to the MOM4 ocean model are compared with those from an earlier version (V1) in which the AGCM (the NSIPP model) was coupled to the Poseidon Ocean Model. It was found that the correlation skill of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts is generally better in V2, especially over the sub-tropical and tropical central and eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the improvement in skill in V2 mainly comes from better forecasts of the developing phase of ENSO from boreal spring to summer. The skill of ENSO forecasts initiated during the boreal winter season, however, shows no improvement in terms of correlation skill, and is in fact slightly worse in terms of root mean square error (RMSE). The degradation of skill is found to be due to an excessive ENSO amplitude. For V1, the ENSO amplitude is too strong in forecasts starting in boreal spring and summer, which causes large RMSE in the forecast. For V2, the ENSO amplitude is slightly stronger than that in observations and V1 for forecasts starting in boreal winter season. An analysis of the terms in the SST tendency equation, shows that this is mainly due to an excessive zonal advective feedback. In addition, V2 forecasts that are initiated during boreal winter season, exhibit a slower phase transition of El Nino, which is consistent with larger amplitude of ENSO after the ENSO peak season. It is found that this is due to weak discharge of equatorial Warm Water Volume (WWV). In both observations and V1, the discharge of equatorial WWV leads the equatorial geostrophic easterly current so as to damp the El Nino starting in January. This process is delayed by about 2 months in V2 due to the slower phase

  9. Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Arduino

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher flood frequency. Whilst current trends in extreme event statistics will be difficult to discern, conclusively, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of high floods in the 20th century for basins greater than 2x105 km2. There is also increasing that anthropogenic forcing of climate change may lead to an increased probability of extreme precipitation and, hence, of flooding. There is, therefore, major emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting systems in Europe, with significant European Community spending on research and development on prototype forecasting systems and flood risk management projects. This Special Issue synthesises the most relevant scientific and technological results presented at the International Conference on Flood Forecasting in Europe held in Rotterdam from 3-5 March 2003. During that meeting 150 scientists, forecasters and stakeholders from four continents assembled to present their work and current operational best practice and to discuss future directions of scientific and technological efforts in flood prediction and prevention. The papers presented at the conference fall into seven themes, as follows.

  10. Wind Resource Assessment and Forecast Planning with Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolus K. Rotich

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we built three types of artificial neural networks, namely: Feed forward networks, Elman networks and Cascade forward networks, for forecasting wind speeds and directions. A similar network topology was used for all the forecast horizons, regardless of the model type. All the models were then trained with real data of collected wind speeds and directions over a period of two years in the municipal of Puumala, Finland. Up to 70th percentile of the data was used for training, validation and testing, while 71–85th percentile was presented to the trained models for validation. The model outputs were then compared to the last 15% of the original data, by measuring the statistical errors between them. The feed forward networks returned the lowest errors for wind speeds. Cascade forward networks gave the lowest errors for wind directions; Elman networks returned the lowest errors when used for short term forecasting.

  11. Operationele Oceanografie en Rapid Environmental Assessment (Operational Oceanography and Rapid Environmental Assessment)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    te Raa, L. A; Lam, F. P; Schouten, M. W

    2008-01-01

    .... Possible applications of operational oceanography in REA include improved sonar performance predictions with three-dimensional sound speed forecasts, support of AUV mission planning with the help...

  12. Assessing methods for developing crop forecasting in the Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ines, A. V. M.; Capa Morocho, M. I.; Baethgen, W.; Rodriguez-Fonseca, B.; Han, E.; Ruiz Ramos, M.

    2015-12-01

    Seasonal climate prediction may allow predicting crop yield to reduce the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate variability and its extremes. It has been already demonstrated that seasonal climate predictions at European (or Iberian) scale from ensembles of global coupled climate models have some skill (Palmer et al., 2004). The limited predictability that exhibits the atmosphere in mid-latitudes, and therefore de Iberian Peninsula (PI), can be managed by a probabilistic approach based in terciles. This study presents an application for the IP of two methods for linking tercile-based seasonal climate forecasts with crop models to improve crop predictability. Two methods were evaluated and applied for disaggregating seasonal rainfall forecasts into daily weather realizations: 1) a stochastic weather generator and 2) a forecast tercile resampler. Both methods were evaluated in a case study where the impacts of two seasonal rainfall forecasts (wet and dry forecast for 1998 and 2015 respectively) on rainfed wheat yield and irrigation requirements of maize in IP were analyzed. Simulated wheat yield and irrigation requirements of maize were computed with the crop models CERES-wheat and CERES-maize which are included in Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v.4.5, Hoogenboom et al., 2010). Simulations were run at several locations in Spain where the crop model was calibrated and validated with independent field data. These methodologies would allow quantifying the benefits and risks of a seasonal climate forecast to potential users as farmers, agroindustry and insurance companies in the IP. Therefore, we would be able to establish early warning systems and to design crop management adaptation strategies that take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse ones. ReferencesPalmer, T. et al., 2004. Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER). Bulletin of the

  13. Final rapid reactivation project environmental assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has prepared an environmental assessment (EA) for the Rapid Reactivation Project at Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico. The EA analyzes the potential effects of a proposal to increase production of neutron generators from the current capability of 600 units per year up to 2,000 units per year. The project would use existing buildings and infrastructure to the maximum extent possible to meet the additional production needs. The increased production levels would necessitate modifications and additions involving a total area of approximately 26,290 gross square feet at Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico, Technical Area 1. Additional production equipment would be procured and installed. The no-action alternative would be to continue production activities at the current capability of 600 units per year. The EA analyzes effects on health, safety, and air quality, resulting from construction and operation and associated cumulative effects. A detailed description of the proposed action and its environmental consequences is presented in the EA

  14. Transition, Training, and Assessment of Multispectral Composite Imagery in Support of the NWS Aviation Forecast Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuell, Kevin; Jedlovec, Gary; Leroy, Anita; Schultz, Lori

    2015-01-01

    The NASA/Short-term Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program works closely with NOAA/NWS weather forecasters to transition unique satellite data and capabilities into operations in order to assist with nowcasting and short-term forecasting issues. Several multispectral composite imagery (i.e. RGB) products were introduced to users in the early 2000s to support hydrometeorology and aviation challenges as well as incident support. These activities lead to SPoRT collaboration with the GOES-R Proving Ground efforts where instruments such as MODIS (Aqua, Terra) and S-NPP/VIIRS imagers began to be used as near-realtime proxies to future capabilities of the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). One of the composite imagery products introduced to users was the Night-time Microphysics RGB, originally developed by EUMETSAT. SPoRT worked to transition this imagery to NWS users, provide region-specific training, and assess the impact of the imagery to aviation forecast needs. This presentation discusses the method used to interact with users to address specific aviation forecast challenges, including training activities undertaken to prepare for a product assessment. Users who assessed the multispectral imagery ranged from southern U.S. inland and coastal NWS weather forecast offices (WFOs), to those in the Rocky Mountain Front Range region and West Coast, as well as highlatitude forecasters of Alaska. These user-based assessments were documented and shared with the satellite community to support product developers and the broad users of new generation satellite data.

  15. Assessing the need for better forecasting and observability of pv

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

    2017-01-01

    In its review of the challenges and opportunities associated with massive deployment of solar PV generation, the Grid integration working group of the ETIP PV identified forecasting and observability as critical technologies for the planning and operation of the power system with large PV...... penetration. In this white paper ETIP PV set out to spell out in more details what features are needed from these technologies and what is the state of the art....

  16. Application of Medium and Seasonal Flood Forecasts for Agriculture Damage Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakhruddin, Shamsul; Ballio, Francesco; Menoni, Scira

    2015-04-01

    Early warning is a key element for disaster risk reduction. In recent decades, major advancements have been made in medium range and seasonal flood forecasting. This progress provides a great opportunity to reduce agriculture damage and improve advisories for early action and planning for flood hazards. This approach can facilitate proactive rather than reactive management of the adverse consequences of floods. In the agricultural sector, for instance, farmers can take a diversity of options such as changing cropping patterns, applying fertilizer, irrigating and changing planting timing. An experimental medium range (1-10 day) and seasonal (20-25 days) flood forecasting model has been developed for Thailand and Bangladesh. It provides 51 sets of discharge ensemble forecasts of 1-10 days with significant persistence and high certainty and qualitative outlooks for 20-25 days. This type of forecast could assist farmers and other stakeholders for differential preparedness activities. These ensembles probabilistic flood forecasts have been customized based on user-needs for community-level application focused on agriculture system. The vulnerabilities of agriculture system were calculated based on exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Indicators for risk and vulnerability assessment were conducted through community consultations. The forecast lead time requirement, user-needs, impacts and management options for crops were identified through focus group discussions, informal interviews and community surveys. This paper illustrates potential applications of such ensembles for probabilistic medium range and seasonal flood forecasts in a way that is not commonly practiced globally today.

  17. Moving beyond the cost-loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-06-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. Numerous studies have shown that ensemble forecasts are of higher quality than deterministic ones. Many studies also conclude that decisions based on ensemble rather than deterministic forecasts lead to better decisions in the context of flood mitigation. Hence, it is believed that ensemble forecasts possess a greater economic and social value for both decision makers and the general population. However, the vast majority of, if not all, existing hydro-economic studies rely on a cost-loss ratio framework that assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. To overcome this important flaw, this study borrows from economics and evaluates the economic value of early warning flood systems using the well-known Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) utility function, which explicitly accounts for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker. This new framework allows for the full exploitation of the information related to a forecasts' uncertainty, making it especially suited for the economic assessment of ensemble or probabilistic forecasts. Rather than comparing deterministic and ensemble forecasts, this study focuses on comparing different types of ensemble forecasts. There are multiple ways of assessing and representing forecast uncertainty. Consequently, there exist many different means of building an ensemble forecasting system for future streamflow. One such possibility is to dress deterministic forecasts using the statistics of past error forecasts. Such dressing methods are popular among operational agencies because of their simplicity and intuitiveness. Another approach is the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts for precipitation and temperature, which are then provided as inputs to one or many hydrological model(s). In this study, three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared: simple statistically dressed

  18. Assessing Variability and Errors in Historical Runoff Forecasting with Physical Models and Alternative Data Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penn, C. A.; Clow, D. W.; Sexstone, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Water supply forecasts are an important tool for water resource managers in areas where surface water is relied on for irrigating agricultural lands and for municipal water supplies. Forecast errors, which correspond to inaccurate predictions of total surface water volume, can lead to mis-allocated water and productivity loss, thus costing stakeholders millions of dollars. The objective of this investigation is to provide water resource managers with an improved understanding of factors contributing to forecast error, and to help increase the accuracy of future forecasts. In many watersheds of the western United States, snowmelt contributes 50-75% of annual surface water flow and controls both the timing and volume of peak flow. Water supply forecasts from the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), National Weather Service, and similar cooperators use precipitation and snowpack measurements to provide water resource managers with an estimate of seasonal runoff volume. The accuracy of these forecasts can be limited by available snowpack and meteorological data. In the headwaters of the Rio Grande, NRCS produces January through June monthly Water Supply Outlook Reports. This study evaluates the accuracy of these forecasts since 1990, and examines what factors may contribute to forecast error. The Rio Grande headwaters has experienced recent changes in land cover from bark beetle infestation and a large wildfire, which can affect hydrological processes within the watershed. To investigate trends and possible contributing factors in forecast error, a semi-distributed hydrological model was calibrated and run to simulate daily streamflow for the period 1990-2015. Annual and seasonal watershed and sub-watershed water balance properties were compared with seasonal water supply forecasts. Gridded meteorological datasets were used to assess changes in the timing and volume of spring precipitation events that may contribute to forecast error. Additionally, a

  19. International survey for good practices in forecasting uncertainty assessment and communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berthet, Lionel; Piotte, Olivier

    2014-05-01

    Achieving technically sound flood forecasts is a crucial objective for forecasters but remains of poor use if the users do not understand properly their significance and do not use it properly in decision making. One usual way to precise the forecasts limitations is to communicate some information about their uncertainty. Uncertainty assessment and communication to stakeholders are thus important issues for operational flood forecasting services (FFS) but remain open fields for research. French FFS wants to publish graphical streamflow and level forecasts along with uncertainty assessment in near future on its website (available to the greater public). In order to choose the technical options best adapted to its operational context, it carried out a survey among more than 15 fellow institutions. Most of these are providing forecasts and warnings to civil protection officers while some were mostly working for hydroelectricity suppliers. A questionnaire has been prepared in order to standardize the analysis of the practices of the surveyed institutions. The survey was conducted by gathering information from technical reports or from the scientific literature, as well as 'interviews' driven by phone, email discussions or meetings. The questionnaire helped in the exploration of practices in uncertainty assessment, evaluation and communication. Attention was paid to the particular context within which every insitution works, in the analysis drawn from raw results. Results show that most services interviewed assess their forecasts uncertainty. However, practices can differ significantly from a country to another. Popular techniques are ensemble approaches. They allow to take into account several uncertainty sources. Statistical past forecasts analysis (such as the quantile regressions) are also commonly used. Contrary to what was expected, only few services emphasize the role of the forecaster (subjective assessment). Similar contrasts can be observed in uncertainty

  20. Economic assessment of flood forecasts for a risk-averse decision-maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier-Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-04-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. It has also been suggested in past studies that ensemble forecasts might possess a greater economic value than deterministic forecasts. However, the vast majority of recent hydro-economic literature is based on the cost-loss ratio framework, which might be appealing for its simplicity and intuitiveness. One important drawback of the cost-loss ratio is that it implicitly assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. By definition, a risk-neutral individual is indifferent to forecasts' sharpness: as long as forecasts agree with observations on average, the risk-neutral individual is satisfied. A risk-averse individual, however, is sensitive to the level of precision (sharpness) of forecasts. This person is willing to pay to increase his or her certainty about future events. In fact, this is how insurance companies operate: the probability of seeing one's house burn down is relatively low, so the expected cost related to such event is also low. However, people are willing to buy insurance to avoid the risk, however small, of loosing everything. Similarly, in a context where people's safety and property is at stake, the typical decision maker is more risk-averse than risk-neutral. Consequently, the cost-loss ratio is not the most appropriate tool to assess the economic value of flood forecasts. This presentation describes a more realistic framework for assessing the economic value of such forecasts for flood mitigation purposes. Borrowing from economics, the Constant Absolute Risk Aversion utility function (CARA) is the central tool of this new framework. Utility functions allow explicitly accounting for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker and fully exploiting the information related to ensemble forecasts' uncertainty. Three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared in terms of quality (comparison with

  1. The european flood alert system EFAS – Part 2: Statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Bartholmes

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Since 2005 the European Flood Alert System (EFAS has been producing probabilistic hydrological forecasts in pre-operational mode at the Joint Research Centre (JRC of the European Commission. EFAS aims at increasing preparedness for floods in trans-national European river basins by providing medium-range deterministic and probabilistic flood forecasting information, from 3 to 10 days in advance, to national hydro-meteorological services.

    This paper is Part 2 of a study presenting the development and skill assessment of EFAS. In Part 1, the scientific approach adopted in the development of the system has been presented, as well as its basic principles and forecast products. In the present article, two years of existing operational EFAS forecasts are statistically assessed and the skill of EFAS forecasts is analysed with several skill scores. The analysis is based on the comparison of threshold exceedances between proxy-observed and forecasted discharges. Skill is assessed both with and without taking into account the persistence of the forecasted signal during consecutive forecasts.

    Skill assessment approaches are mostly adopted from meteorology and the analysis also compares probabilistic and deterministic aspects of EFAS. Furthermore, the utility of different skill scores is discussed and their strengths and shortcomings illustrated. The analysis shows the benefit of incorporating past forecasts in the probability analysis, for medium-range forecasts, which effectively increases the skill of the forecasts.

  2. Rapid City Native American Population Needs Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrokhi, Abdollah

    1993-01-01

    Interviews with 301 Native American households in Rapid City, South Dakota, examined demographic variables and attitudes and needs in the areas of education, housing, transportation, health care, recreation, and employment. The ultimate goals for Native American people are achieving empowerment and group determination through greater cultural…

  3. Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecoregional Assessment: pre-assessment report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assal, Timothy J.; Melcher, Cynthia P.; Carr, Natasha B.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of the Pre-Assessment Report for the Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecoregional Assessment (REA) is to document the selection process for and final list of Conservation Elements, Change Agents, and Management Questions developed during Phase I. The overall goal of the REAs being conducted for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is to provide information that supports regional planning and analysis for the management of ecological resources. The REA provides an assessment of baseline ecological conditions, an evaluation of current risks from drivers of ecosystem change, and a predictive capacity for evaluating future risks. The REA also may be used for identifying priority areas for conservation or restoration and for assessing the cumulative effects of a variety of land uses. There are several components of the REAs. Management Questions, developed by the BLM and partners for the ecoregion, identify the information needed for addressing land-management responsibilities. Conservation Elements represent regionally significant terrestrial and aquatic species and communities that are to be conserved and (or) restored. For each Conservation Element, key ecological attributes will be evaluated to determine the status of each species and community. The REA also will evaluate major drivers of ecosystem change, or Change Agents, currently affecting or likely to affect the status of Conservation Elements in the future. The relationships between Change Agents and key ecological attributes will be summarized using conceptual models. The REA process is a two-phase process. Phase I (pre-assessment) includes developing and finalizing the lists of priority Management Questions, Conservation Elements, and Change Agents, culminating in the REA Pre-Assessment Report.

  4. Rapid assessment as an evaluation tool for polio national ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rapid assessment as an evaluation tool for polio national immunisation days in Brong Ahafo region, Ghana. ... TM Akande, M Eshetu, G Bonsu ... Conclusion: Rapid assessment is a valuable tool for evaluation of NIDs; it enables timely intervention in covering missed children and helps in careful interpretation of the usual ...

  5. Utilizing Operational and Improved Remote Sensing Measurements to Assess Air Quality Monitoring Model Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Chuen-Meei

    Air quality model forecasts from Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) are often used to support air quality applications such as regulatory issues and scientific inquiries on atmospheric science processes. In urban environments, these models become more complex due to the inherent complexity of the land surface coupling and the enhanced pollutants emissions. This makes it very difficult to diagnose the model, if the surface parameter forecasts such as PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 microm) are not accurate. For this reason, getting accurate boundary layer dynamic forecasts is as essential as quantifying realistic pollutants emissions. In this thesis, we explore the usefulness of vertical sounding measurements on assessing meteorological and air quality forecast models. In particular, we focus on assessing the WRF model (12km x 12km) coupled with the CMAQ model for the urban New York City (NYC) area using multiple vertical profiling and column integrated remote sensing measurements. This assessment is helpful in probing the root causes for WRF-CMAQ overestimates of surface PM2.5 occurring both predawn and post-sunset in the NYC area during the summer. In particular, we find that the significant underestimates in the WRF PBL height forecast is a key factor in explaining this anomaly. On the other hand, the model predictions of the PBL height during daytime when convective heating dominates were found to be highly correlated to lidar derived PBL height with minimal bias. Additional topics covered in this thesis include mathematical method using direct Mie scattering approach to convert aerosol microphysical properties from CMAQ into optical parameters making direct comparisons with lidar and multispectral radiometers feasible. Finally, we explore some tentative ideas on combining visible (VIS) and mid-infrared (MIR) sensors to better separate aerosols into fine and coarse modes.

  6. Integral assessment of floodplains as a basis for spatially-explicit flood loss forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zischg, Andreas Paul; Mosimann, Markus; Weingartner, Rolf

    2016-04-01

    flood scenario, the resulting number of affected residents, houses and therefore the losses are computed. This integral assessment leads to a hydro-economical characterisation of each floodplain. Based on that, a transfer function between discharge forecast and damages can be elaborated. This transfer function describes the relationship between predicted peak discharge, flood volume and the number of exposed houses, residents and the related losses. It also can be used to downscale the regional discharge forecast to a local level loss forecast. In addition, a dynamic map delimiting the probable flooded areas on the basis of the forecasted discharge can be prepared. The predicted losses and the delimited flooded areas provide a complementary information for assessing the need of preventive measures on one hand on the long-term timescale and on the other hand 6h-24h in advance of a predicted flood. To conclude, we can state that the transfer function offers the possibility for an integral assessment of floodplains as a basis for spatially-explicit flood loss forecasts. The procedure has been developed and tested in the alpine and pre-alpine environment of the Aare river catchment upstream of Bern, Switzerland.

  7. Rapid Geriatric Assessment of Hip Fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanker, Jesse; Duque, Gustavo

    2017-08-01

    A comprehensive geriatric assessment, combined with a battery of imaging and blood tests, should be able to identify those hip fracture patients who are at higher risk of short- and long-term complications. This comprehensive assessment should be followed by the implementation of a comprehensive multidimensional care plan aimed to prevent negative outcomes in the postoperative period (short and long term), thus assuring a safe and prompt functional recovery while also preventing future falls and fractures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Combining Reference Class Forecasting with Overconfidence Theory for Better Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen; Salling, Kim Bang; Pilkauskiene, Inga

    2015-01-01

    investments. In the last decade progress has been made by dealing with this situation known as planners’ optimism bias. Especially attention can be drawn to the use of reference class forecasting that has led to adjustment factors that, when used on the estimates of costs and demand, lead to cost......-benefit analysis results that are modified by taking historical risk experience into account. This article seeks to add to this progress in risk assessment methodology in two ways: first it suggests to apply reference class forecasting (RCF) in a flexible way where the effort is focused on formulating the best...

  9. Rapid Assessment of Drugs of Abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiencek, Joesph R; Colby, Jennifer M; Nichols, James H

    Laboratory testing for drugs of abuse has become standard practice in many settings both forensic and clinical. Urine is the predominant specimen, but other specimens are possible including hair, nails, sweat, and oral fluid. Point-of-care test kits provide for rapid analysis at the site where specimens are collected allowing for immediate action on the results. POCT is based on immunochromatography where the drug in the patient's sample competes with drug and antibody conjugates in the test to develop or block the development of a colored line. Most POCTs are visually interpreted in a few minutes. The potential for false positives is possible due to drug cross-reactivity with the antibodies in the test. False negatives are also possible due to dilution of the sample and the potential for adulteration or sample substitution by the patient. POCT shows more variability than central laboratory testing because of the variety of operators involved in the testing process, but POCT has good agreement for most tests with mass spectrometry provided comparable cutoffs and cross-reactivity of drugs/metabolites are considered. Validation of the test performance with the intended operators will identify potential interferences and operational issues before implementing the test in routine practice. POCT offers faster turnaround of test results provided the limitations and challenges of the test are considered. © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Assessment of marine weather forecasts over the Indian sector of Southern Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gera, Anitha; Mahapatra, D. K.; Sharma, Kuldeep; Prakash, Satya; Mitra, A. K.; Iyengar, G. R.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Anilkumar, N.

    2017-09-01

    The Southern Ocean (SO) is one of the important regions where significant processes and feedbacks of the Earth's climate take place. Expeditions to the SO provide useful data for improving global weather/climate simulations and understanding many processes. Some of the uncertainties in these weather/climate models arise during the first few days of simulation/forecast and do not grow much further. NCMRWF issued real-time five day weather forecasts of mean sea level pressure, surface winds, winds at 500 hPa & 850 hPa and rainfall, daily to NCAOR to provide guidance for their expedition to Indian sector of SO during the austral summer of 2014-2015. Evaluation of the skill of these forecasts indicates possible error growth in the atmospheric model at shorter time scales. The error growth is assessed using the model analysis/reanalysis, satellite data and observations made during the expedition. The observed variability of sub-seasonal rainfall associated with mid-latitude systems is seen to exhibit eastward propagations and are well reproduced in the model forecasts. All cyclonic disturbances including the sub-polar lows and tropical cyclones that occurred during this period were well captured in the model forecasts. Overall, this model performs reasonably well over the Indian sector of the SO in medium range time scale.

  11. Rapid Technology Assessment Framework for Land Logistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    Economy, Environment, Politics SWOT Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats TRL Technology Readiness Level US United States WHO World Health...process fills one with the hope of great things to come. From 3-D printed organs to self-assembling asteroid -mining robots, the solution to all the...one to assess the relevant advantages of the new technologies compared to the current systems. For example, if we are considering investment in a

  12. Assessing energy forecasting inaccuracy by simultaneously considering temporal and absolute errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frías-Paredes, Laura; Mallor, Fermín; Gastón-Romeo, Martín; León, Teresa

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A new method to match time series is defined to assess energy forecasting accuracy. • This method relies in a new family of step patterns that optimizes the MAE. • A new definition of the Temporal Distortion Index between two series is provided. • A parametric extension controls both the temporal distortion index and the MAE. • Pareto optimal transformations of the forecast series are obtained for both indexes. - Abstract: Recent years have seen a growing trend in wind and solar energy generation globally and it is expected that an important percentage of total energy production comes from these energy sources. However, they present inherent variability that implies fluctuations in energy generation that are difficult to forecast. Thus, forecasting errors have a considerable role in the impacts and costs of renewable energy integration, management, and commercialization. This study presents an important advance in the task of analyzing prediction models, in particular, in the timing component of prediction error, which improves previous pioneering results. A new method to match time series is defined in order to assess energy forecasting accuracy. This method relies on a new family of step patterns, an essential component of the algorithm to evaluate the temporal distortion index (TDI). This family minimizes the mean absolute error (MAE) of the transformation with respect to the reference series (the real energy series) and also allows detailed control of the temporal distortion entailed in the prediction series. The simultaneous consideration of temporal and absolute errors allows the use of Pareto frontiers as characteristic error curves. Real examples of wind energy forecasts are used to illustrate the results.

  13. READS: the rapid electronic assessment documentation system.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Hickey, Ann

    2012-12-13

    Patient documentation is time consuming and can detract from care. The authors report a novel computer programme that manipulates routinely collected information to quantify nursing workload, along with the reason for admission, functional status, estimates of in-hospital mortality and life expectancy. The programme stores information in a database, and produces a print-out in a situation\\/background\\/assessment\\/recommendation (SBAR) format. The average time taken to enter 629 patient encounters was 6.6 minutes. Pain was the most common presentation for low workload patients, while high workload patients often presented with altered mental status and reduced mobility. There was only a modest correlation between the risk of death and nursing workload. The programme measures nursing workload without further paperwork, and improves routine documentation with a legible brief report that is automatically generated. This report can be shared and provides data that is immediately available for day-to-day care, audit, quality control and service planning.

  14. Risk Informed Design Using Integrated Vehicle Rapid Assessment Tools

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A successful proof of concept was performed in FY 2012 integrating the Envision tool for parametric estimates of vehicle mass and the Rapid Response Risk Assessment...

  15. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change provides data and information on global and regional land cover change in raster format for...

  16. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-09-01

    Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

  17. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

  18. A seamless global hydrological monitoring and forecasting system for water resources assessment and hydrological hazard early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, Justin; He, Xiaogang; Wood, Eric; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Zhan, Wang; Peng, Liqing

    2017-04-01

    Sustainable management of water resources and mitigation of the impacts of hydrological hazards are becoming ever more important at large scales because of inter-basin, inter-country and inter-continental connections in water dependent sectors. These include water resources management, food production, and energy production, whose needs must be weighed against the water needs of ecosystems and preservation of water resources for future generations. The strains on these connections are likely to increase with climate change and increasing demand from burgeoning populations and rapid development, with potential for conflict over water. At the same time, network connections may provide opportunities to alleviate pressures on water availability through more efficient use of resources such as trade in water dependent goods. A key constraint on understanding, monitoring and identifying solutions to increasing competition for water resources and hazard risk is the availability of hydrological data for monitoring and forecasting water resources and hazards. We present a global online system that provides continuous and consistent water products across time scales, from the historic instrumental period, to real-time monitoring, short-term and seasonal forecasts, and climate change projections. The system is intended to provide data and tools for analysis of historic hydrological variability and trends, water resources assessment, monitoring of evolving hazards and forecasts for early warning, and climate change scale projections of changes in water availability and extreme events. The system is particular useful for scientists and stakeholders interested in regions with less available in-situ data, and where forecasts have the potential to help decision making. The system is built on a database of high-resolution climate data from 1950 to present that merges available observational records with bias-corrected reanalysis and satellite data, which then drives a coupled land

  19. Standardized reporting for rapid relative effectiveness assessments of pharmaceuticals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleijnen, Sarah; Pasternack, Iris; Van de Casteele, Marc; Rossi, Bernardette; Cangini, Agnese; Di Bidino, Rossella; Jelenc, Marjetka; Abrishami, Payam; Autti-Rämö, Ilona; Seyfried, Hans; Wildbacher, Ingrid; Goettsch, Wim G

    2014-11-01

    Many European countries perform rapid assessments of the relative effectiveness (RE) of pharmaceuticals as part of the reimbursement decision making process. Increased sharing of information on RE across countries may save costs and reduce duplication of work. The objective of this article is to describe the development of a tool for rapid assessment of RE of new pharmaceuticals that enter the market, the HTA Core Model® for Rapid Relative Effectiveness Assessment (REA) of Pharmaceuticals. Eighteen member organisations of the European Network of Health Technology Assessment (EUnetHTA) participated in the development of the model. Different versions of the model were developed and piloted in this collaboration and adjusted accordingly based on feedback on the content and feasibility of the model. The final model deviates from the traditional HTA Core Model® used for assessing other types of technologies. This is due to the limited scope (strong focus on RE), the timing of the assessment (just after market authorisation), and strict timelines (e.g. 90 days) required for performing the assessment. The number of domains and assessment elements was limited and it was decided that the primary information sources should preferably be a submission file provided by the marketing authorisation holder and the European Public Assessment Report. The HTA Core Model® for Rapid REA (version 3.0) was developed to produce standardised transparent RE information of pharmaceuticals. Further piloting can provide input for possible improvements, such as further refining the assessment elements and new methodological guidance on relevant areas.

  20. Flood Risk Assessment and Forecasting for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopson, T. M.; Priya, S.; Young, W.; Avasthi, A.; Clayton, T. D.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Birkett, C. M.; Riddle, E. E.; Broman, D.; Boehnert, J.; Sampson, K. M.; Kettner, A.; Singh, D.

    2017-12-01

    During the 2017 South Asia monsoon, torrential rains and catastrophic floods affected more than 45 million people, including 16 million children, across the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basins. The basin is recognized as one of the world's most disaster-prone regions, with severe floods occurring almost annually causing extreme loss of life and property. In light of this vulnerability, the World Bank and collaborators have contributed toward reducing future flood impacts through recent developments to improve operational preparedness for such events, as well as efforts in more general preparedness and resilience building through planning based on detailed risk assessments. With respect to improved event-specific flood preparedness through operational warnings, we discuss a new forecasting system that provides probability-based flood forecasts developed for more than 85 GBM locations. Forecasts are available online, along with near-real-time data maps of rainfall (predicted and actual) and river levels. The new system uses multiple data sets and multiple models to enhance forecasting skill, and provides improved forecasts up to 16 days in advance of the arrival of high waters. These longer lead times provide the opportunity to save both lives and livelihoods. With sufficient advance notice, for example, farmers can harvest a threatened rice crop or move vulnerable livestock to higher ground. Importantly, the forecasts not only predict future water levels but indicate the level of confidence in each forecast. Knowing whether the probability of a danger-level flood is 10 percent or 90 percent helps people to decide what, if any, action to take. With respect to efforts in general preparedness and resilience building, we also present a recent flood risk assessment, and how it provides, for the first time, a numbers-based view of the impacts of different size floods across the Ganges basin. The findings help identify priority areas for tackling flood risks (for

  1. Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM): user's guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poeton, R.W.; Moeller, M.P.; Laughlin, G.J.; Desrosiers, A.E.

    1983-05-01

    As part of the continuing emphasis on emergency preparedness the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) sponsored the development of a rapid dose assessment system by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). This system, the Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM) is a micro-computer based program for rapidly assessing the radiological impact of accidents at nuclear power plants. This User's Guide provides instruction in the setup and operation of the equipment necessary to run IRDAM. Instructions are also given on how to load the magnetic disks and access the interactive part of the program. Two other companion volumes to this one provide additional information on IRDAM. Reactor Accident Assessment Methods (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 2) describes the technical bases for IRDAM including methods, models and assumptions used in calculations. Scenarios for Comparing Dose Assessment Models (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 3) provides the results of calculations made by IRDAM and other models for specific accident scenarios

  2. National Coal Utilization Assessment: a preliminary assessment of coal utilizaton in the South. [Southern USA to 2020; forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, L. B.; Bjornstad, D. J.; Boercker, F. D.

    1978-01-01

    Some of the major problems and issues related to coal development and use in the South are identified and assessed assuming a base-case energy scenario for the next 45 years. This scenario assumes a midrange of coal use and a relatively high rate of nuclear use over the forecast period. The potential impacts from coal development and use are significant, particularly in the 1990-2020 time period. Practically all available sites suitable for power plant development in the assessment will be utilized by 2020. Overall, sulfur dioxide will be well below the annual primary standard; however, several local hot-spot areas were identified. In addition, sulfate concentrations will be increased significantly, particularly over Virginia, West Virginia, and northern Kentucky. Coal mining is expected to affect 6 of the 12 major ecological regions. Coal mining will lead to increased average suspended sediment concentrations in some river basins, and special measures will be required to control acid discharges from active mines in pyritic regions. The increased mining of coal and subsequent sulfur dioxide increases from its combustion may also give rise to a land-use confrontation with food and fiber production. Potential health effects from exposure to sulfur dioxide and sulfates are expected to increase rapidly in several areas, particularly in parts of Kentucky, Maryland, District of Columbia, and Georgia. Regional social costs should be relatively low, although some site-specific costs are expected to be very high. Alternative energy technologies, careful siting selection, and deployment of environmental control technologies and operating policies will be required to reduce or mitigate these potential impacts.

  3. Rapid Health and Needs assessments after disasters: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yzermans CJ

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Publichealth care providers, stakeholders and policy makers request a rapid insight into health status and needs of the affected population after disasters. To our knowledge, there is no standardized rapid assessment tool for European countries. The aim of this article is to describe existing tools used internationally and analyze them for the development of a workable rapid assessment. Methods A review was conducted, including original studies concerning a rapid health and/or needs assessment. The studies used were published between 1980 and 2009. The electronic databasesof Medline, Embase, SciSearch and Psychinfo were used. Results Thirty-three studies were included for this review. The majority of the studies was of US origin and in most cases related to natural disasters, especially concerning the weather. In eighteen studies an assessment was conducted using a structured questionnaire, eleven studies used registries and four used both methods. Questionnaires were primarily used to asses the health needs, while data records were used to assess the health status of disaster victims. Conclusions Methods most commonly used were face to face interviews and data extracted from existing registries. Ideally, a rapid assessment tool is needed which does not add to the burden of disaster victims. In this perspective, the use of existing medical registries in combination with a brief questionnaire in the aftermath of disasters is the most promising. Since there is an increasing need for such a tool this approach needs further examination.

  4. How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Blois, Jessica L; Williams, John W; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Maguire, Kaitlin C; Lorenz, David J

    2018-03-23

    Future climates are projected to be highly novel relative to recent climates. Climate novelty challenges models that correlate ecological patterns to climate variables and then use these relationships to forecast ecological responses to future climate change. Here, we quantify the magnitude and ecological significance of future climate novelty by comparing it to novel climates over the past 21,000 years in North America. We then use relationships between model performance and climate novelty derived from the fossil pollen record from eastern North America to estimate the expected decrease in predictive skill of ecological forecasting models as future climate novelty increases. We show that, in the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and by late 21st century, future climate novelty is similar to or higher than peak levels of climate novelty over the last 21,000 years. The accuracy of ecological forecasting models is projected to decline steadily over the coming decades in response to increasing climate novelty, although models that incorporate co-occurrences among species may retain somewhat higher predictive skill. In addition to quantifying future climate novelty in the context of late Quaternary climate change, this work underscores the challenges of making reliable forecasts to an increasingly novel future, while highlighting the need to assess potential avenues for improvement, such as increased reliance on geological analogs for future novel climates and improving existing models by pooling data through time and incorporating assemblage-level information. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Rapid Assessment of Anthropogenic Impacts of Exposed Sandy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We applied a rapid assessment methodology to estimate the degree of human impact of exposed sandy beaches in Ghana using ghost crabs as ecological indicators. The use of size ranges of ghost crab burrows and their population density as ecological indicators to assess extent of anthropogenic impacts on beaches ...

  6. Rapid Assessment of Protected area Pressures and Threats in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Regular evaluation of protected area operations can enable policy makers develop strategic responses to pervasive management problems. Pressures and threats in seven National Parks of the National Park Service (NPS) were therefore assessed using the Rapid Assessment and Prioritization of Protected Area ...

  7. Developing integrated performance assessment and forecasting the level of financial and economic enterprise stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khudyakova T.A.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem of assessing and forecasting the level of financial and economic enterprise stability through the integrated indicators development. Currently, many enterprises operate under variable external environment, which imposes a strict requirement to consider this uncertainty. For the evaluation, analysis and prediction of the sustainability of the enterprise in the conditions of crisis we believe it possible and necessary to use the apparatus of probability theory and mathematical statistics. This problem solution will improve quantitative assessing the financial and economic stability level, forecasting possible scenarios of the enterprise development and, therefore, based on the proactive management principles and adaptation processes will greatly increase their effective functioning, as well as reduce bankruptcy probability.

  8. Assessment of the Effects of Various Precipitation Forcings on Flood Forecasting Potential Using WRF-Hydro Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J.; Fang, N. Z.

    2017-12-01

    A potential flood forecast system is under development for the Upper Trinity River Basin (UTRB) in North Central of Texas using the WRF-Hydro model. The Routing Application for the Parallel Computation of Discharge (RAPID) is utilized as channel routing module to simulate streamflow. Model performance analysis was conducted based on three quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE): the North Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) rainfall, the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) QPE and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) quality-controlled stage IV estimates. Prior to hydrologic simulation, QPE performance is assessed on two time scales (daily and hourly) using the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) and Hydrometeorological Automated Data System (HADS) hourly products. The calibrated WRF-Hydro model was then evaluated by comparing the simulated against the USGS observed using various QPE products. The results imply that the NCEP stage IV estimates have the best accuracy among the three QPEs on both time scales, while the NLDAS rainfall performs poorly because of its coarse spatial resolution. Furthermore, precipitation bias demonstrates pronounced impact on flood forecasting skills, as the root mean squared errors are significantly reduced by replacing NLDAS rainfall with NCEP stage IV estimates. This study also demonstrates that accurate simulated results can be achieved when initial soil moisture values are well understood in the WRF-Hydro model. Future research effort will therefore be invested on incorporating data assimilation with focus on initial states of the soil properties for UTRB.

  9. Assessing the value of increased model resolution in forecasting fire danger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeanne Hoadley; Miriam Rorig; Ken Westrick; Larry Bradshaw; Sue Ferguson; Scott Goodrick; Paul Werth

    2003-01-01

    The fire season of 2000 was used as a case study to assess the value of increasing mesoscale model resolution for fire weather and fire danger forecasting. With a domain centered on Western Montana and Northern Idaho, MM5 simulations were run at 36, 12, and 4-km resolutions for a 30 day period at the height of the fire season. Verification analyses for meteorological...

  10. Statistical Models to Assess the Health Effects and to Forecast Ground Level Ozone

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Schlink, U.; Herbath, O.; Richter, M.; Dorling, S.; Nunnari, G.; Cawley, G.; Pelikán, Emil

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 4 (2006), s. 547-558 ISSN 1364-8152 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1ET400300414 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : statistical models * ground level ozone * health effects * logistic model * forecasting * prediction performance * neural network * generalised additive model * integrated assessment Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 1.992, year: 2006

  11. LHCb Computing Resources: 2011 re-assessment, 2012 request and 2013 forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Graciani, R

    2011-01-01

    This note covers the following aspects: re-assessment of computing resource usage estimates for 2011 data taking period, request of computing resource needs for 2012 data taking period and a first forecast of the 2013 needs, when no data taking is foreseen. Estimates are based on 2010 experienced and last updates from LHC schedule, as well as on a new implementation of the computing model simulation tool. Differences in the model and deviations in the estimates from previous presented results are stressed.

  12. LHCb Computing Resources: 2012 re-assessment, 2013 request and 2014 forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Graciani Diaz, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    This note covers the following aspects: re-assessment of computing resource usage estimates for 2012 data-taking period, request of computing resource needs for 2013, and a first forecast of the 2014 needs, when restart of data-taking is foreseen. Estimates are based on 2011 experience, as well as on the results of a simulation of the computing model described in the document. Differences in the model and deviations in the estimates from previous presented results are stressed.

  13. SCORING ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING MODELS BANKRUPTCY RISK OF COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUSU Stefanita

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Bankruptcy risk made the subject of many research studies that aim at identifying the time of the bankruptcy, the factors that compete to achieve this state, the indicators that best express this orientation (the bankruptcy. The threats to enterprises require the managers knowledge of continually economic and financial situations, and vulnerable areas with development potential. Managers need to identify and properly manage the threats that would prevent achieving the targets. In terms of methods known in the literature of assessment and evaluation of bankruptcy risk they are static, functional, strategic, and scoring nonfinancial models. This article addresses Altman and Conan-Holder-known internationally as the model developed at national level by two teachers from prestigious universities in our country-the Robu-Mironiuc model. Those models are applied to data released by the profit and loss account and balance sheet Turism Covasna company over which bankruptcy risk analysis is performed. The results of the analysis are interpreted while trying to formulate solutions to the economic and financial viability of the entity.

  14. The 2010 Chile Earthquake: Rapid Assessments of Tsunami

    OpenAIRE

    Michelini, A.; Lauciani, V.; Selvaggi, G.; Lomax, A.

    2010-01-01

    After an earthquake underwater, rapid real-time assessment of earthquake parameters is important for emergency response related to infrastructure damage and, perhaps more exigently, for issuing warnings of the possibility of an impending tsunami. Since 2005, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) has worked on the rapid quantification of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential, especially for the Mediterranean area. This work includes quantification of earthquake size fr...

  15. Development of a technique of the rapid analysis for forecasting of possible radionuclides accumulation in the harvest of agricultural crops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadgarov, Kh.T.; Pugachev, V.V.; Kim, A.A.

    2005-01-01

    and specific feature of plants. For forecasting of possible level of pollution of a harvest by radionuclides with using of coefficients of accumulation it is necessary to define it beforehand. Then the forecast is carried out by simple multiplication of the contents of radionuclide in ground (Bq/kg) and coefficients of accumulation of radionuclides in a harvest of plants. Researches of the possible levels of pollution by caesium - 137 of a harvest and in young plants yielded results in many respects similar to results on strontium - 90. Hence it is possible to use both coefficients - Ct and Ca to both long-lived radionuclides and, probably, to other similar isotopes. Thus, the developed method of rapid analysis and it modifications allow to reduce greatly time in similar researches, that in itself it is important, but also will allow to expand significantly the range of objects of researches both radionuclides and agriculture plants.

  16. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...... constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.......Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

  17. Program for rapid dose assessment in criticality accident, RADAPAS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Fumiaki

    2006-09-01

    In a criticality accident, a person near fissile material can receive extremely high dose which can cause acute health effect. For such a case, medical treatment should be carried out for the exposed person, according to severity of the exposure. Then, radiation dose should be rapidly assessed soon after an outbreak of an accident. Dose assessment based upon the quantity of induced 24 Na in human body through neutron exposure is expected as one of useful dosimetry techniques in a criticality accident. A dose assessment program, called RADAPAS (RApid Dose Assessment Program from Activated Sodium in Criticality Accidents), was therefore developed to assess rapidly radiation dose to exposed persons from activity of induced 24 Na. RADAPAS consists of two parts; one is a database part and the other is a part for execution of dose calculation. The database contains data compendiums of energy spectra and dose conversion coefficients from specific activity of 24 Na induced in human body, which had been derived in a previous analysis using Monte Carlo calculation code. Information for criticality configuration or characteristics of radiation in the accident field is to be interactively given with interface displays in the dose calculation. RADAPAS can rapidly derive radiation dose to the exposed person from the given information and measured 24 Na specific activity by using the conversion coefficient in database. This report describes data for dose conversions and dose calculation in RADAPAS and explains how to use the program. (author)

  18. Assessing the Skill of Chlorophyll Forecasts: Latest Development and Challenges Ahead Using the Case of the Equatorial Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousseaux, Cecile S.; Gregg, Watson W.

    2018-01-01

    Using a global ocean biogeochemical model combined with a forecast of physical oceanic and atmospheric variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, we assess the skill of a chlorophyll concentrations forecast in the Equatorial Pacific for the period 2012-2015 with a focus on the forecast of the onset of the 2015 El Nino event. Using a series of retrospective 9-month hindcasts, we assess the uncertainties of the forecasted chlorophyll by comparing the monthly total chlorophyll concentration from the forecast with the corresponding monthly ocean chlorophyll data from the Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (S-NPP VIIRS) satellite. The forecast was able to reproduce the phasing of the variability in chlorophyll concentration in the Equatorial Pacific, including the beginning of the 2015-2016 El Nino. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) was significant (p less than 0.05) for forecast at 1-month (R=0.33), 8-month (R=0.42) and 9-month (R=0.41) lead times. The root mean square error (RMSE) increased from 0.0399 microgram chl L(exp -1) for the 1-month lead forecast to a maximum of 0.0472 microgram chl L(exp -1) for the 9-month lead forecast indicating that the forecast of the amplitude of chlorophyll concentration variability was getting worse. Forecasts with a 3-month lead time were on average the closest to the S-NPP VIIRS data (23% or 0.033 microgram chl L(exp -1)) while the forecast with a 9-month lead time were the furthest (31% or 0.042 microgram chl L(exp -1)). These results indicate the potential for forecasting chlorophyll concentration in this region but also highlights various deficiencies and suggestions for improvements to the current biogeochemical forecasting system. This system provides an initial basis for future applications including the effects of El Nino events on fisheries and other ocean resources given improvements identified in the analysis of these results.

  19. Rapid assessment of assignments using plagiarism detection software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bischoff, Whitney R; Abrego, Patricia C

    2011-01-01

    Faculty members most often use plagiarism detection software to detect portions of students' written work that have been copied and/or not attributed to their authors. The rise in plagiarism has led to a parallel rise in software products designed to detect plagiarism. Some of these products are configurable for rapid assessment and teaching, as well as for plagiarism detection.

  20. A national framework for flood forecasting model assessment for use in operations and investment planning over England and Wales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Robert J.; Wells, Steven C.; Cole, Steven J.

    2016-04-01

    It has been common for flood forecasting systems to be commissioned at a catchment or regional level in response to local priorities and hydrological conditions, leading to variety in system design and model choice. As systems mature and efficiencies of national management are sought, there can be a drive towards system rationalisation, gaining an overview of model performance and consideration of simplification through model-type convergence. Flood forecasting model assessments, whilst overseen at a national level, may be commissioned and managed at a catchment and regional level, take a variety of forms and be large in number. This presents a challenge when an integrated national assessment is required to guide operational use of flood forecasts and plan future investment in flood forecasting models and supporting hydrometric monitoring. This contribution reports on how a nationally consistent framework for flood forecasting model performance has been developed to embrace many past, ongoing and future assessments for local river systems by engineering consultants across England & Wales. The outcome is a Performance Summary for every site model assessed which, on a single page, contains relevant catchment information for context, a selection of overlain forecast and observed hydrographs and a set of performance statistics with associated displays of novel condensed form. One display provides performance comparison with other models that may exist for the site. The performance statistics include skill scores for forecasting events (flow/level threshold crossings) of differing severity/rarity, indicating their probability and likely timing, which have real value in an operational setting. The local models assessed can be of any type and span rainfall-runoff (conceptual and transfer function) and flow routing (hydrological and hydrodynamic) forms. Also accommodated by the framework is the national G2G (Grid-to-Grid) distributed hydrological model, providing area

  1. Forecasts of county-level land uses under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear

    2011-01-01

    Accurately forecasting future forest conditions and the implications for ecosystem services depends on understanding land use dynamics. In support of the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment, we forecast changes in land uses for the coterminous United States in response to three scenarios. Our land use models forecast urbanization in response to the...

  2. An application and verification of ensemble forecasting on wind power to assess operational risk indicators in power grids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alessandrini, S.; Ciapessoni, E.; Cirio, D.; Pitto, A.; Sperati, S. [Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A., Milan (Italy). Power System Development Dept. and Environment and Sustainable Development Dept.; Pinson, P. [Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark). DTU Informatics

    2012-07-01

    Wind energy is part of the so-called not schedulable renewable sources, i.e. it must be exploited when it is available, otherwise it is lost. In European regulation it has priority of dispatch over conventional generation, to maximize green energy production. However, being variable and uncertain, wind (and solar) generation raises several issues for the security of the power grids operation. In particular, Transmission System Operators (TSOs) need as accurate as possible forecasts. Nowadays a deterministic approach in wind power forecasting (WPF) could easily be considered insufficient to face the uncertainty associated to wind energy. In order to obtain information about the accuracy of a forecast and a reliable estimation of its uncertainty, probabilistic forecasting is becoming increasingly widespread. In this paper we investigate the performances of the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling Limited area Ensemble Prediction System (COSMO-LEPS). First the ensemble application is followed by assessment of its properties (i.e. consistency, reliability) using different verification indices and diagrams calculated on wind power. Then we provide examples of how EPS based wind power forecast can be used in power system security analyses. Quantifying the forecast uncertainty allows to determine more accurately the regulation reserve requirements, hence improving security of operation and reducing system costs. In particular, the paper also presents a probabilistic power flow (PPF) technique developed at RSE and aimed to evaluate the impact of wind power forecast accuracy on the probability of security violations in power systems. (orig.)

  3. Petascale Diagnostic Assessment of the Global Portfolio Rainfall Space Missions' Ability to Support Flood Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, P. M.; Chaney, N.; Herman, J. D.; Wood, E. F.; Ferringer, M. P.

    2015-12-01

    This research represents a multi-institutional collaboration between Cornell University, The Aerospace Corporation, and Princeton University that has completed a Petascale diagnostic assessment of the current 10 satellite missions providing rainfall observations. Our diagnostic assessment has required four core tasks: (1) formally linking high-resolution astrodynamics design and coordination of space assets with their global hydrological impacts within a Petascale "many-objective" global optimization framework, (2) developing a baseline diagnostic evaluation of a 1-degree resolution global implementation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to establish the required satellite observation frequencies and coverage to maintain acceptable global flood forecasts, (3) evaluating the limitations and vulnerabilities of the full suite of current satellite precipitation missions including the recently approved Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, and (4) conceptualizing the next generation spaced-based platforms for water cycle observation. Our team exploited over 100 Million hours of computing access on the 700,000+ core Blue Waters machine to radically advance our ability to discover and visualize key system tradeoffs and sensitivities. This project represents to our knowledge the first attempt to develop a 10,000 member Monte Carlo global hydrologic simulation at one degree resolution that characterizes the uncertain effects of changing the available frequencies of satellite precipitation on drought and flood forecasts. The simulation—optimization components of the work have set a theoretical baseline for the best possible frequencies and coverages for global precipitation given unlimited investment, broad international coordination in reconfiguring existing assets, and new satellite constellation design objectives informed directly by key global hydrologic forecasting requirements. Our research poses a step towards realizing the integrated

  4. An assessment of the ECMWF tropical cyclone ensemble forecasting system and its use for insurance loss predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aemisegger, F.; Martius, O.; Wüest, M.

    2010-09-01

    Tropical cyclones (TC) are amongst the most impressive and destructive weather systems of Earth's atmosphere. The costs related to such intense natural disasters have been rising in recent years and may potentially continue to increase in the near future due to changes in magnitude, timing, duration or location of tropical storms. This is a challenging situation for numerical weather prediction, which should provide a decision basis for short term protective measures through high quality medium range forecasts on the one hand. On the other hand, the insurance system bears great responsibility in elaborating proactive plans in order to face these extreme events that individuals cannot manage independently. Real-time prediction and early warning systems are needed in the insurance sector in order to face an imminent hazard and minimise losses. Early loss estimates are important in order to allocate capital and to communicate to investors. The ECMWF TC identification algorithm delivers information on the track and intensity of storms based on the ensemble forecasting system. This provides a physically based framework to assess the uncertainty in the forecast of a specific event. The performance of the ECMWF TC ensemble forecasts is evaluated in terms of cyclone intensity and location in this study and the value of such a physically-based quantification of uncertainty in the meteorological forecast for the estimation of insurance losses is assessed. An evaluation of track and intensity forecasts of hurricanes in the North Atlantic during the years 2005 to 2009 is carried out. Various effects are studied like the differences in forecasts over land or sea, as well as links between storm intensity and forecast error statistics. The value of the ECMWF TC forecasting system for the global re-insurer Swiss Re was assessed by performing insurance loss predictions using their in-house loss model for several case studies of particularly devastating events. The generally known

  5. Innovative activity of high-technology companies as assessment and forecasting object

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Sklyarov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Innovation activities, as well as innovations, are closely related meanings, and like many others economical definitions, have a broad range of meanings. Main characteristics and attributes of innovation involves new or significantly improved product, that’s being used, or in other words, found its application, and innovative activities – activities focused on realization of innovations. In this article, innovations are mainly considered in terms of high-technology production, evidence from Russian space industry. There are 5 basic stages of lifecycle of innovative project in considered industry: initiation, development, realization, expansion, consumption. Practically, third or fourth, or even both of these stages, often missing because there is no need of them. R&D activities, or even further serial production, based on previous developments, is an innovation activity, because these activities are stages of innovative projects lifecycle itself. Then it seems legit, to draw a conclusion, that in terms of high-technology production, company’s primary activity equals innovative activity. Basic characteristics of innovative activity of high-technology companies as assessment and forecasting object involves high level of uncertainty at every stage of projects lifecycle, high dependency on funding level of this activity, and high level and erratic structure of risk. All the above mentioned, means that assessment and forecasting of innovative activity of high-technology companies, needs development of its own methodological tools for each industry.

  6. Skill assessment of the coupled physical-biogeochemical operational Mediterranean Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cossarini, Gianpiero; Clementi, Emanuela; Salon, Stefano; Grandi, Alessandro; Bolzon, Giorgio; Solidoro, Cosimo

    2016-04-01

    The Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Centre (Med-MFC) is one of the regional production centres of the European Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS-Copernicus). Med-MFC operatively manages a suite of numerical model systems (3DVAR-NEMO-WW3 and 3DVAR-OGSTM-BFM) that provides gridded datasets of physical and biogeochemical variables for the Mediterranean marine environment with a horizontal resolution of about 6.5 km. At the present stage, the operational Med-MFC produces ten-day forecast: daily for physical parameters and bi-weekly for biogeochemical variables. The validation of the coupled model system and the estimate of the accuracy of model products are key issues to ensure reliable information to the users and the downstream services. Product quality activities at Med-MFC consist of two levels of validation and skill analysis procedures. Pre-operational qualification activities focus on testing the improvement of the quality of a new release of the model system and relays on past simulation and historical data. Then, near real time (NRT) validation activities aim at the routinely and on-line skill assessment of the model forecast and relays on the NRT available observations. Med-MFC validation framework uses both independent (i.e. Bio-Argo float data, in-situ mooring and vessel data of oxygen, nutrients and chlorophyll, moored buoys, tide-gauges and ADCP of temperature, salinity, sea level and velocity) and semi-independent data (i.e. data already used for assimilation, such as satellite chlorophyll, Satellite SLA and SST and in situ vertical profiles of temperature and salinity from XBT, Argo and Gliders) We give evidence that different variables (e.g. CMEMS-products) can be validated at different levels (i.e. at the forecast level or at the level of model consistency) and at different spatial and temporal scales. The fundamental physical parameters temperature, salinity and sea level are routinely validated on daily, weekly and quarterly base

  7. Assessing uncertainties in flood forecasts for decision making: prototype of an operational flood management system integrating ensemble predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Dietrich

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble forecasts aim at framing the uncertainties of the potential future development of the hydro-meteorological situation. A probabilistic evaluation can be used to communicate forecast uncertainty to decision makers. Here an operational system for ensemble based flood forecasting is presented, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS and COSMO-DE prediction systems. A multi-model lagged average super-ensemble is generated by recombining members from different runs of these meteorological forecast systems. A subset of the super-ensemble is selected based on a priori model weights, which are obtained from ensemble calibration. Flood forecasts are simulated by the conceptual rainfall-runoff-model ArcEGMO. Parameter uncertainty of the model is represented by a parameter ensemble, which is a priori generated from a comprehensive uncertainty analysis during model calibration. The use of a computationally efficient hydrological model within a flood management system allows us to compute the hydro-meteorological model chain for all members of the sub-ensemble. The model chain is not re-computed before new ensemble forecasts are available, but the probabilistic assessment of the output is updated when new information from deterministic short range forecasts or from assimilation of measured data becomes available. For hydraulic modelling, with the desired result of a probabilistic inundation map with high spatial resolution, a replacement model can help to overcome computational limitations. A prototype of the developed framework has been applied for a case study in the Mulde river basin. However these techniques, in particular the probabilistic assessment and the derivation of decision rules are still in their infancy. Further research is necessary and promising.

  8. Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of Coronary Artery Revascularisation Procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knuiman Matthew

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs. It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007. In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance. Methods Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model. Results The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995–99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG

  9. Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of coronary artery revascularisation procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannan, Haider R; Knuiman, Matthew; Hobbs, Michael

    2008-06-25

    Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD) have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs) that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs) and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs). It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007). In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard) model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance. Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model. The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995-99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG procedure stemming from changed CARP preference

  10. Ethical dimensions of paediatric nursing: A rapid evidence assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagnasco, Annamaria; Cadorin, Lucia; Barisone, Michela; Bressan, Valentina; Iemmi, Marina; Prandi, Marzia; Timmins, Fiona; Watson, Roger; Sasso, Loredana

    2018-02-01

    Paediatric nurses often face complex situations requiring decisions that sometimes clash with their own values and beliefs, or with the needs of the children they care for and their families. Paediatric nurses often use new technology that changes the way they provide care, but also reduces their direct interaction with the child. This may generate ethical issues, which nurses should be able to address in the full respect of the child. Research question and objectives: The purpose of this review is to describe the main ethical dimensions of paediatric nursing. Our research question was, 'What are the most common ethical dimensions and competences related to paediatric nursing?' A rapid evidence assessment. According to the principles of the rapid evidence assessment, we searched the PubMed, SCOPUS and CINAHL databases for papers published between January 2001 and March 2015. These papers were then independently read by two researchers and analysed according to the inclusion criteria. Ethical considerations: Since this was a rapid evidence assessment, no approval from the ethics committee was required. Ten papers met our inclusion criteria. Ethical issues in paediatric nursing were grouped into three areas: (a) ethical issues in paediatric care, (b) social responsibility and (c) decision-making process. Few studies investigate the ethical dimensions and aspects of paediatric nursing, and they are mainly qualitative studies conducted in critical care settings based on nurses' perceptions and experiences. Paediatric nurses require specific educational interventions to help them resolve ethical issues, contribute to the decision-making process and fulfil their role as advocates of a vulnerable population (i.e. sick children and their families). Further research is needed to investigate how paediatric nurses can improve the involvement of children and their families in decision-making processes related to their care plan.

  11. Imaging findings and referral outcomes of rapid assessment stroke clinics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Widjaja, E.; Manuel, D.; Hodgson, T.J.; Connolly, D.J.A.; Coley, S.C.; Romanowski, C.A.J.; Gaines, P.; Cleveland, T.; Thomas, S.; Griffiths, P.D.; Doyle, C.; Venables, G.S.

    2005-01-01

    AIM: A rapid assessment stroke clinic (RASC) was established to provide a rapid diagnostic service to individuals with suspected transient cerebral or ocular ischaemia or recovered non-hospitalized strokes. In this report we review imaging findings and clinical outcomes of patients proceeding to the carotid surgery programme. METHODS: Between October 2000 and December 2002, 1339 people attended the RASC. The findings of head CT and carotid Doppler ultrasound of the 1320 patients who underwent brain and carotid imaging were reviewed, and the number subsequently proceeding to carotid angiography and intervention was reported. RESULTS: CT head scans were normal in 57% of cases; 38% demonstrated ischaemia or infarction; and 3% yielded incidental or other significant findings not related to ischaemia. On screening with carotid Doppler ultrasound, 7.5% showed greater than 50% stenosis on the symptomatic side. A total of 83 patients (6.2%) proceeded to cerebral angiography and 65 (4.8%) underwent carotid endarterectomy or endovascular repair. CONCLUSION: Rapid-access neurovascular clinics are efficient in selecting patients for carotid intervention, but this is at a cost and the number of potential strokes prevented is small. Alternative management pathways based on immediate medical treatment need to be evaluated

  12. Development of web-based services for an ensemble flood forecasting and risk assessment system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaw Manful, Desmond; He, Yi; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Li, Zhijia; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Huang, Yingchun; Hu, Yuzhong

    2010-05-01

    Flooding is a wide spread and devastating natural disaster worldwide. Floods that took place in the last decade in China were ranked the worst amongst recorded floods worldwide in terms of the number of human fatalities and economic losses (Munich Re-Insurance). Rapid economic development and population expansion into low lying flood plains has worsened the situation. Current conventional flood prediction systems in China are neither suited to the perceptible climate variability nor the rapid pace of urbanization sweeping the country. Flood prediction, from short-term (a few hours) to medium-term (a few days), needs to be revisited and adapted to changing socio-economic and hydro-climatic realities. The latest technology requires implementation of multiple numerical weather prediction systems. The availability of twelve global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a good opportunity for an effective state-of-the-art early forecasting system. A prototype of a Novel Flood Early Warning System (NEWS) using the TIGGE database is tested in the Huai River basin in east-central China. It is the first early flood warning system in China that uses the massive TIGGE database cascaded with river catchment models, the Xinanjiang hydrologic model and a 1-D hydraulic model, to predict river discharge and flood inundation. The NEWS algorithm is also designed to provide web-based services to a broad spectrum of end-users. The latter presents challenges as both databases and proprietary codes reside in different locations and converge at dissimilar times. NEWS will thus make use of a ready-to-run grid system that makes distributed computing and data resources available in a seamless and secure way. An ability to run or function on different operating systems and provide an interface or front that is accessible to broad spectrum of end-users is additional requirement. The aim is to achieve robust interoperability

  13. Novel flood risk assessment framework for rapid decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valyrakis, Manousos; Koursari, Eftychia; Solley, Mark

    2016-04-01

    The impacts of catastrophic flooding, have significantly increased over the last few decades. This is due to primarily the increased urbanisation in ever-expanding mega-cities as well as due to the intensification both in magnitude and frequency of extreme hydrologic events. Herein a novel conceptual framework is presented that incorporates the use of real-time information to inform and update low dimensionality hydraulic models, to allow for rapid decision making towards preventing loss of life and safeguarding critical infrastructure. In particular, a case study from the recent UK floods in the area of Whitesands (Dumfries), is presented to demonstrate the utility of this approach. It is demonstrated that effectively combining a wealth of readily available qualitative information (such as crowdsourced visual documentation or using live data from sensing techniques), with existing quantitative data, can help appropriately update hydraulic models and reduce modelling uncertainties in future flood risk assessments. This approach is even more useful in cases where hydraulic models are limited, do not exist or were not needed before unpredicted dynamic modifications to the river system took place (for example in the case of reduced or eliminated hydraulic capacity due to blockages). The low computational cost and rapid assessment this framework offers, render it promising for innovating in flood management.

  14. Pavement condition assessment to forecast maintenance program on JKR state roads in Petaling district

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamsan, R.; Hafiz, H.; Azlan, A.; Keprawi, M. F.; Malik, A. K. A.; Adamuddin, A.; Abdullah, A. H.; Shafie, A. M.

    2018-02-01

    This research allows local authorities to project road maintenance in term of activities and financial expenditure through pavement condition assessment and then Highway Development and Management (HDM-4) analysis. Current form of road maintenance carried out by local authority is on reactive manner where corrective actions were taken based on reports recorded. Some went unrecorded hence causing prolonged damages. This causes the local authority unable to project the required cost to maintain the roads. This affects the socio-economy of the surrounding routes. Hence, it is seen, as preventive maintenance of the roads will provide more feasible option in term of work force and finance to the local authority. To overcome this issue, a preventive model was introduced. This was done through pavement condition assessment (PCA) where analysis was done through HDM-4. Nondestructive test and destructive test were conducted in order to provide an indicator to the road's health. This were then analyzed in HDM-4 where the result was benchmarked with maintenance standard. The scope of this research is set to PCA where DT and NDT were performed on the routes of Petaling and the output is analyzed in HDM-4. The result of this research provides a 10 years forecast maintenance budget in maintaining the roads in Petaling. This allows the local authority to perform good practice in term of maintaining the roads while at the same time helps them in forecasting their budget for the upcoming years. This research will have a strong impact on the local socio-economy as well as local road user confidence towards the authority over good practices. This research can be further expanded to other type of roads as well as highway bridges.

  15. The Simulation-Based Assessment of Pediatric Rapid Response Teams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fehr, James J; McBride, Mary E; Boulet, John R; Murray, David J

    2017-09-01

    To create scenarios of simulated decompensating pediatric patients to train pediatric rapid response teams (RRTs) and to determine whether the scenario scores provide a valid assessment of RRT performance with the hypothesis that RRTs led by intensivists-in-training would be better prepared to manage the scenarios than teams led by nurse practitioners. A set of 10 simulated scenarios was designed for the training and assessment of pediatric RRTs. Pediatric RRTs, comprising a pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) registered nurse and respiratory therapist, led by a PICU intensivist-in-training or a pediatric nurse practitioner, managed 7 simulated acutely decompensating patients. Two raters evaluated the scenario performances and psychometric analyses of the scenarios were performed. The teams readily managed scenarios such as supraventricular tachycardia and opioid overdose but had difficulty with more complicated scenarios such as aortic coarctation or head injury. The management of any particular scenario was reasonably predictive of overall team performance. The teams led by the PICU intensivists-in-training outperformed the teams led by the pediatric nurse practitioners. Simulation provides a method for RRTs to develop decision-making skills in managing decompensating pediatric patients. The multiple scenario assessment provided a moderately reliable team score. The greater scores achieved by PICU intensivist-in-training-led teams provides some evidence to support the validity of the assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. An assessment of the surface climate in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Wanqiu; Xie, Pingping; Yoo, Soo-Hyun; Xue, Yan; Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wu, Xingren [Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2011-10-15

    This paper analyzes surface climate variability in the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) recently completed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The CFSR represents a new generation of reanalysis effort with first guess from a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land forecast system. This study focuses on the analysis of climate variability for a set of surface variables including precipitation, surface air 2-m temperature (T2m), and surface heat fluxes. None of these quantities are assimilated directly and thus an assessment of their variability provides an independent measure of the accuracy. The CFSR is compared with observational estimates and three previous reanalyses (the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis or R1, the NCEP/DOE reanalysis or R2, and the ERA40 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The CFSR has improved time-mean precipitation distribution over various regions compared to the three previous reanalyses, leading to a better representation of freshwater flux (evaporation minus precipitation). For interannual variability, the CFSR shows improved precipitation correlation with observations over the Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent, and western Pacific. The T2m of the CFSR is superior to R1 and R2 with more realistic interannual variability and long-term trend. On the other hand, the CFSR overestimates downward solar radiation flux over the tropical Western Hemisphere warm pool, consistent with a negative cloudiness bias and a positive sea surface temperature bias. Meanwhile, the evaporative latent heat flux in CFSR appears to be larger than other observational estimates over most of the globe. A few deficiencies in the long-term variations are identified in the CFSR. Firstly, dramatic changes are found around 1998-2001 in the global average of a number of variables, possibly related to the changes in the assimilated satellite observations. Secondly, the use of multiple streams for the CFSR induces spurious

  17. Strengthening health professions regulation in Cambodia: a rapid assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, David; Duke, Jan; Wuliji, Tana; Smith, Alyson; Phuong, Keat; San, Un

    2016-03-10

    This paper describes a rapid assessment of Cambodia's current system for regulating its health professions. The assessment forms part of a co-design process to set strategic priorities for strengthening health profession regulation to improve the quality and safety of health services. A health system approach for strengthening health professions' regulation is underway and aims to support the Government of Cambodia's plans for scaling up its health workforce, improving health services' safety and quality, and meeting its Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) obligations to facilitate trade in health care services. The assessment used a mixed methods approach including: A desktop review of key laws, plans, reports and other documents relating to the regulation of the health professions in Cambodia (medicine, dentistry, midwifery, nursing and pharmacy); Key informant interviews with stakeholders in Cambodia (The term "stakeholders" refers to government officials, people working on health professional regulation, people working for the various health worker training institutions and health workers at the national and provincial level); Surveys and questionnaires to assess Cambodian stakeholder knowledge of regulation; Self-assessments by members of the five Cambodian regulatory councils regarding key capacities and activities of high-performing regulatory bodies; and A rapid literature review to identify: The key functions of health professional regulation; The key issues affecting the Cambodian health sector (including relevant developments in the wider ASEAN region); and "Smart" health profession regulation practices of possible relevance to Cambodia. We found that the current regulatory system only partially meets Cambodia's needs. A number of key regulatory functions are being performed, but overall, the current system was not designed with Cambodia's specific needs in mind. The existing system is also overly complex, with considerable duplication and

  18. A formulation of multidimensional growth models for the assessment and forecast of technology attributes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danner, Travis W.

    Developing technology systems requires all manner of investment---engineering talent, prototypes, test facilities, and more. Even for simple design problems the investment can be substantial; for complex technology systems, the development costs can be staggering. The profitability of a corporation in a technology-driven industry is crucially dependent on maximizing the effectiveness of research and development investment. Decision-makers charged with allocation of this investment are forced to choose between the further evolution of existing technologies and the pursuit of revolutionary technologies. At risk on the one hand is excessive investment in an evolutionary technology which has only limited availability for further improvement. On the other hand, the pursuit of a revolutionary technology may mean abandoning momentum and the potential for substantial evolutionary improvement resulting from the years of accumulated knowledge. The informed answer to this question, evolutionary or revolutionary, requires knowledge of the expected rate of improvement and the potential a technology offers for further improvement. This research is dedicated to formulating the assessment and forecasting tools necessary to acquire this knowledge. The same physical laws and principles that enable the development and improvement of specific technologies also limit the ultimate capability of those technologies. Researchers have long used this concept as the foundation for modeling technological advancement through extrapolation by analogy to biological growth models. These models are employed to depict technology development as it asymptotically approaches limits established by the fundamental principles on which the technological approach is based. This has proven an effective and accurate approach to modeling and forecasting simple single-attribute technologies. With increased system complexity and the introduction of multiple system objectives, however, the usefulness of this

  19. Assessment of Global Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) using new satellite SST data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ascione Kenov, Isabella; Sykes, Peter; Fiedler, Emma; McConnell, Niall; Ryan, Andrew; Maksymczuk, Jan

    2016-04-01

    There is an increased demand for accurate ocean weather information for applications in the field of marine safety and navigation, water quality, offshore commercial operations, monitoring of oil spills and pollutants, among others. The Met Office, UK, provides ocean forecasts to customers from governmental, commercial and ecological sectors using the Global Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM), an operational modelling system which covers the global ocean and runs daily, using the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) ocean model with horizontal resolution of 1/4° and 75 vertical levels. The system assimilates salinity and temperature profiles, sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH), and sea ice concentration observations on a daily basis. In this study, the FOAM system is updated to assimilate Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) and the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) SST data. Model results from one month trials are assessed against observations using verification tools which provide a quantitative description of model performance and error, based on statistical metrics, including mean error, root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient, and Taylor diagrams. A series of hindcast experiments is used to run the FOAM system with AMSR2 and SEVIRI SST data, using a control run for comparison. Results show that all trials perform well on the global ocean and that largest SST mean errors were found in the Southern hemisphere. The geographic distribution of the model error for SST and temperature profiles are discussed using statistical metrics evaluated over sub-regions of the global ocean.

  20. Rapid assessment of disaster damage using social media activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kryvasheyeu, Yury; Chen, Haohui; Obradovich, Nick; Moro, Esteban; Van Hentenryck, Pascal; Fowler, James; Cebrian, Manuel

    2016-03-01

    Could social media data aid in disaster response and damage assessment? Countries face both an increasing frequency and an increasing intensity of natural disasters resulting from climate change. During such events, citizens turn to social media platforms for disaster-related communication and information. Social media improves situational awareness, facilitates dissemination of emergency information, enables early warning systems, and helps coordinate relief efforts. In addition, the spatiotemporal distribution of disaster-related messages helps with the real-time monitoring and assessment of the disaster itself. We present a multiscale analysis of Twitter activity before, during, and after Hurricane Sandy. We examine the online response of 50 metropolitan areas of the United States and find a strong relationship between proximity to Sandy's path and hurricane-related social media activity. We show that real and perceived threats, together with physical disaster effects, are directly observable through the intensity and composition of Twitter's message stream. We demonstrate that per-capita Twitter activity strongly correlates with the per-capita economic damage inflicted by the hurricane. We verify our findings for a wide range of disasters and suggest that massive online social networks can be used for rapid assessment of damage caused by a large-scale disaster.

  1. Rapid Response Risk Assessment in New Project Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graber, Robert R.

    2010-01-01

    A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment

  2. Development of distributed topographical forecasting model for wind resource assessment using artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narayana, P.B. [Green Life Energy Solutions LLP, Secunderabad (India); Rao, S.S. [National Institute of Technology. Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Warangal (India); Reddy, K.H. [JNT Univ.. Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Anantapur (India)

    2012-07-01

    Economics of wind power projects largely depend on the availability of wind power density. Wind resource assessment is a study estimating wind speeds and wind power densities in the region under consideration. The accuracy and reliability of data sets comprising of wind speeds and wind power densities at different heights per topographic region characterized by elevation or mean sea level, is important for wind power projects. Indian Wind Resource Assessment program conducted in 80's consisted of wind data measured by monitoring stations at different topographies in order to measure wind power density values at 25 and 50 meters above the ground level. In this paper, an attempt has been made to assess wind resource at a given location using artificial neural networks. Existing wind resource data has been used to train the neural networks. Location topography (characterized by longitude, latitude and mean sea level), air density, mean annual wind speed (MAWS) are used as inputs to the neural network. Mean annual wind power density (MAWPD) in watt/m{sup 2} is predicted for a new topographic location. Simple back propagation based neural network has been found to be sufficient for predicting these values with suitable accuracy. This model is closely linked to the problem of wind energy forecasting considering the variations of specific atmospheric variables with time horizons. This model will help the wind farm developers to have an initial estimation of the wind energy potential at a particular topography. (Author)

  3. Review on Rapid Seismic Vulnerability Assessment for Bulk of Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanda, R. P.; Majhi, D. R.

    2013-09-01

    This paper provides a brief overview of rapid visual screening (RVS) procedures available in different countries with a comparison among all the methods. Seismic evaluation guidelines from, USA, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, India, Europe, Italy, UNDP, with other methods are reviewed from the perspective of their applicability to developing countries. The review shows clearly that some of the RVS procedures are unsuited for potential use in developing countries. It is expected that this comparative assessment of various evaluation schemes will help to identify the most essential components of such a procedure for use in India and other developing countries, which is not only robust, reliable but also easy to use with available resources. It appears that Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 154 and New Zealand Draft Code approaches can be suitably combined to develop a transparent, reasonably rigorous and generalized procedure for seismic evaluation of buildings in developing countries.

  4. Using JPSS VIIRS Fire Radiative Power Data to Forecast Biomass Burning Emissions and Smoke Transport by the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadov, R.; Grell, G. A.; James, E.; Alexander, C.; Stewart, J.; Benjamin, S.; McKeen, S. A.; Csiszar, I. A.; Tsidulko, M.; Pierce, R. B.; Pereira, G.; Freitas, S. R.; Goldberg, M.

    2017-12-01

    We present a new real-time smoke modeling system, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh coupled with smoke (HRRR-Smoke), to simulate biomass burning (BB) emissions, plume rise and smoke transport in real time. The HRRR is the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory's 3km grid spacing version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model used for weather forecasting. Here we make use of WRF-Chem (the WRF model coupled with chemistry) and simulate fine particulate matter (smoke) emissions emitted by BB. The HRRR-Smoke modeling system ingests fire radiative power (FRP) data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite to calculate BB emissions. The FRP product is based on processing 750m resolution "M" bands. The algorithms for fire detection and FRP retrieval are consistent with those used to generate the MODIS fire detection data. For the purpose of ingesting VIIRS fire data into the HRRR-Smoke model, text files are generated to provide the location and detection confidence of fire pixels, as well as FRP. The VIIRS FRP data from the text files are processed and remapped over the HRRR-Smoke model domains. We process the FRP data to calculate BB emissions (smoldering part) and fire size for the model input. In addition, HRRR-Smoke uses the FRP data to simulate the injection height for the flaming emissions using concurrently simulated meteorological fields by the model. Currently, there are two 3km resolution domains covering the contiguous US and Alaska which are used to simulate smoke in real time. In our presentation, we focus on the CONUS domain. HRRR-Smoke is initialized 4 times per day to forecast smoke concentrations for the next 36 hours. The VIIRS FRP data, as well as near-surface and vertically integrated smoke mass concentrations are visualized for every forecast hour. These plots are provided to the public via the HRRR-Smoke web-page: https

  5. Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess the quality of probabilistic forecast systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maia, A.H.N.; Meinke, H.B.; Lennox, S.; Stone, R.C.

    2007-01-01

    Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. To be useful for decision making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and its statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must

  6. Solar Resource Assessment with Sky Imagery and a Virtual Testbed for Sky Imager Solar Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurtz, Benjamin Bernard

    In recent years, ground-based sky imagers have emerged as a promising tool for forecasting solar energy on short time scales (0 to 30 minutes ahead). Following the development of sky imager hardware and algorithms at UC San Diego, we present three new or improved algorithms for sky imager forecasting and forecast evaluation. First, we present an algorithm for measuring irradiance with a sky imager. Sky imager forecasts are often used in conjunction with other instruments for measuring irradiance, so this has the potential to decrease instrumentation costs and logistical complexity. In particular, the forecast algorithm itself often relies on knowledge of the current irradiance which can now be provided directly from the sky images. Irradiance measurements are accurate to within about 10%. Second, we demonstrate a virtual sky imager testbed that can be used for validating and enhancing the forecast algorithm. The testbed uses high-quality (but slow) simulations to produce virtual clouds and sky images. Because virtual cloud locations are known, much more advanced validation procedures are possible with the virtual testbed than with measured data. In this way, we are able to determine that camera geometry and non-uniform evolution of the cloud field are the two largest sources of forecast error. Finally, with the assistance of the virtual sky imager testbed, we develop improvements to the cloud advection model used for forecasting. The new advection schemes are 10-20% better at short time horizons.

  7. Rapid habitability assessment of Mars samples by pyrolysis-FTIR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Peter R.; Sephton, Mark A.

    2016-02-01

    Pyrolysis Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (pyrolysis FTIR) is a potential sample selection method for Mars Sample Return missions. FTIR spectroscopy can be performed on solid and liquid samples but also on gases following preliminary thermal extraction, pyrolysis or gasification steps. The detection of hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon gases can reveal information on sample mineralogy and past habitability of the environment in which the sample was created. The absorption of IR radiation at specific wavenumbers by organic functional groups can indicate the presence and type of any organic matter present. Here we assess the utility of pyrolysis-FTIR to release water, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide and organic matter from Mars relevant materials to enable a rapid habitability assessment of target rocks for sample return. For our assessment a range of minerals were analyzed by attenuated total reflectance FTIR. Subsequently, the mineral samples were subjected to single step pyrolysis and multi step pyrolysis and the products characterised by gas phase FTIR. Data from both single step and multi step pyrolysis-FTIR provide the ability to identify minerals that reflect habitable environments through their water and carbon dioxide responses. Multi step pyrolysis-FTIR can be used to gain more detailed information on the sources of the liberated water and carbon dioxide owing to the characteristic decomposition temperatures of different mineral phases. Habitation can be suggested when pyrolysis-FTIR indicates the presence of organic matter within the sample. Pyrolysis-FTIR, therefore, represents an effective method to assess whether Mars Sample Return target rocks represent habitable conditions and potential records of habitation and can play an important role in sample triage operations.

  8. The first rapid assessment of avoidable blindness (RAAB) in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isipradit, Saichin; Sirimaharaj, Maytinee; Charukamnoetkanok, Puwat; Thonginnetra, Oraorn; Wongsawad, Warapat; Sathornsumetee, Busaba; Somboonthanakij, Sudawadee; Soomsawasdi, Piriya; Jitawatanarat, Umapond; Taweebanjongsin, Wongsiri; Arayangkoon, Eakkachai; Arame, Punyawee; Kobkoonthon, Chinsuchee; Pangputhipong, Pannet

    2014-01-01

    The majority of vision loss is preventable or treatable. Population surveys are crucial for planning, implementation, and monitoring policies and interventions to eliminate avoidable blindness and visual impairments. This is the first rapid assessment of avoidable blindness (RAAB) study in Thailand. A cross-sectional study of a population in Thailand age 50 years old or over aimed to assess the prevalence and causes of blindness and visual impairments. Using the Thailand National Census 2010 as the sampling frame, a stratified four-stage cluster sampling based on a probability proportional to size was conducted in 176 enumeration areas from 11 provinces. Participants received comprehensive eye examination by ophthalmologists. The age and sex adjusted prevalence of blindness (presenting visual acuity (VA) blindness. Cataract surgical coverage in persons was 95.1% for cut off VA of 20/400. Refractive errors, diabetic retinopathy, glaucoma, and corneal opacities were responsible for 6.0%, 5.1%, 4.0%, and 2.0% of blindness respectively. Thailand is on track to achieve the goal of VISION 2020. However, there is still much room for improvement. Policy refinements and innovative interventions are recommended to alleviate blindness and visual impairments especially regarding the backlog of blinding cataract, management of non-communicative, chronic, age-related eye diseases such as glaucoma, age-related macular degeneration, and diabetic retinopathy, prevention of childhood blindness, and establishment of a robust eye health information system.

  9. Rapid assessment methods in eye care: An overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Srinivas Marmamula

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Reliable information is required for the planning and management of eye care services. While classical research methods provide reliable estimates, they are prohibitively expensive and resource intensive. Rapid assessment (RA methods are indispensable tools in situations where data are needed quickly and where time- or cost-related factors prohibit the use of classical epidemiological surveys. These methods have been developed and field tested, and can be applied across almost the entire gamut of health care. The 1990s witnessed the emergence of RA methods in eye care for cataract, onchocerciasis, and trachoma and, more recently, the main causes of avoidable blindness and visual impairment. The important features of RA methods include the use of local resources, simplified sampling methodology, and a simple examination protocol/data collection method that can be performed by locally available personnel. The analysis is quick and easy to interpret. The entire process is inexpensive, so the survey may be repeated once every 5-10 years to assess the changing trends in disease burden. RA survey methods are typically linked with an intervention. This article provides an overview of the RA methods commonly used in eye care, and emphasizes the selection of appropriate methods based on the local need and context.

  10. Rapid Assessment of Seismic Vulnerability in Palestinian Refugee Camps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Dabbeek, Jalal N.; El-Kelani, Radwan J.

    Studies of historical and recorded earthquakes in Palestine demonstrate that damaging earthquakes are occurring frequently along the Dead Sea Transform: Earthquake of 11 July 1927 (ML 6.2), Earthquake of 11 February 2004 (ML 5.2). In order to reduce seismic vulnerability of buildings, losses in lives, properties and infrastructures, an attempt was made to estimate the percentage of damage degrees and losses at selected refugee camps: Al Ama`ri, Balata and Dhaishe. Assessing the vulnerability classes of building structures was carried out according to the European Macro-Seismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98) and the Fedral Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The rapid assessment results showed that very heavy structural and non structural damages will occur in the common buildings of the investigated Refugee Camps (many buildings will suffer from damages grades 4 and 5). Bad quality of buildings in terms of design and construction, lack of uniformity, absence of spaces between the building and the limited width of roads will definitely increase the seismic vulnerability under the influence of moderate-strong (M 6-7) earthquakes in the future.

  11. Real-time flood forecasts & risk assessment using a possibility-theory based fuzzy neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, U. T.

    2016-12-01

    Globally floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters and improved flood forecasting methods are essential for better flood protection in urban areas. Given the availability of high resolution real-time datasets for flood variables (e.g. streamflow and precipitation) in many urban areas, data-driven models have been effectively used to predict peak flow rates in river; however, the selection of input parameters for these types of models is often subjective. Additionally, the inherit uncertainty associated with data models along with errors in extreme event observations means that uncertainty quantification is essential. Addressing these concerns will enable improved flood forecasting methods and provide more accurate flood risk assessments. In this research, a new type of data-driven model, a quasi-real-time updating fuzzy neural network is developed to predict peak flow rates in urban riverine watersheds. A possibility-to-probability transformation is first used to convert observed data into fuzzy numbers. A possibility theory based training regime is them used to construct the fuzzy parameters and the outputs. A new entropy-based optimisation criterion is used to train the network. Two existing methods to select the optimum input parameters are modified to account for fuzzy number inputs, and compared. These methods are: Entropy-Wavelet-based Artificial Neural Network (EWANN) and Combined Neural Pathway Strength Analysis (CNPSA). Finally, an automated algorithm design to select the optimum structure of the neural network is implemented. The overall impact of each component of training this network is to replace the traditional ad hoc network configuration methods, with one based on objective criteria. Ten years of data from the Bow River in Calgary, Canada (including two major floods in 2005 and 2013) are used to calibrate and test the network. The EWANN method selected lagged peak flow as a candidate input, whereas the CNPSA method selected lagged

  12. NOAA's Integrated Tsunami Database: Data for improved forecasts, warnings, research, and risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroker, Kelly; Dunbar, Paula; Mungov, George; Sweeney, Aaron; McCullough, Heather; Carignan, Kelly

    2015-04-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has primary responsibility in the United States for tsunami forecast, warning, research, and supports community resiliency. NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics provide a unique collection of data enabling communities to ensure preparedness and resilience to tsunami hazards. Immediately following a damaging or fatal tsunami event there is a need for authoritative data and information. The NGDC Global Historical Tsunami Database (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/) includes all tsunami events, regardless of intensity, as well as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions that caused fatalities, moderate damage, or generated a tsunami. The long-term data from these events, including photographs of damage, provide clues to what might happen in the future. NGDC catalogs the information on global historical tsunamis and uses these data to produce qualitative tsunami hazard assessments at regional levels. In addition to the socioeconomic effects of a tsunami, NGDC also obtains water level data from the coasts and the deep-ocean at stations operated by the NOAA/NOS Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers, and the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and produces research-quality data to isolate seismic waves (in the case of the deep-ocean sites) and the tsunami signal. These water-level data provide evidence of sea-level fluctuation and possible inundation events. NGDC is also building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) to support real-time forecasts, implemented at 75 US coastal communities. After a damaging or fatal event NGDC begins to collect and integrate data and information from many organizations into the hazards databases. Sources of data include our NOAA partners, the U.S. Geological Survey, the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and International Tsunami Information Center

  13. Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM): reactor-accident assessment methods. Vol.2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poeton, R.W.; Moeller, M.P.; Laughlin, G.J.; Desrosiers, A.E.

    1983-05-01

    As part of the continuing emphasis on emergency preparedness, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) sponsored the development of a rapid dose assessment system by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). This system, the Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM) is a micro-computer based program for rapidly assessing the radiological impact of accidents at nuclear power plants. This document describes the technical bases for IRDAM including methods, models and assumptions used in calculations. IRDAM calculates whole body (5-cm depth) and infant thyroid doses at six fixed downwind distances between 500 and 20,000 meters. Radionuclides considered primarily consist of noble gases and radioiodines. In order to provide a rapid assessment capability consistent with the capacity of the Osborne-1 computer, certain simplifying approximations and assumptions are made. These are described, along with default values (assumptions used in the absence of specific input) in the text of this document. Two companion volumes to this one provide additional information on IRDAM. The user's Guide (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 1) describes the setup and operation of equipment necessary to run IRDAM. Scenarios for Comparing Dose Assessment Models (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 3) provides the results of calculations made by IRDAM and other models for specific accident scenarios

  14. Benchmarking computational fluid dynamics models of lava flow simulation for hazard assessment, forecasting, and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietterich, Hannah; Lev, Einat; Chen, Jiangzhi; Richardson, Jacob A.; Cashman, Katharine V.

    2017-01-01

    Numerical simulations of lava flow emplacement are valuable for assessing lava flow hazards, forecasting active flows, designing flow mitigation measures, interpreting past eruptions, and understanding the controls on lava flow behavior. Existing lava flow models vary in simplifying assumptions, physics, dimensionality, and the degree to which they have been validated against analytical solutions, experiments, and natural observations. In order to assess existing models and guide the development of new codes, we conduct a benchmarking study of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for lava flow emplacement, including VolcFlow, OpenFOAM, FLOW-3D, COMSOL, and MOLASSES. We model viscous, cooling, and solidifying flows over horizontal planes, sloping surfaces, and into topographic obstacles. We compare model results to physical observations made during well-controlled analogue and molten basalt experiments, and to analytical theory when available. Overall, the models accurately simulate viscous flow with some variability in flow thickness where flows intersect obstacles. OpenFOAM, COMSOL, and FLOW-3D can each reproduce experimental measurements of cooling viscous flows, and OpenFOAM and FLOW-3D simulations with temperature-dependent rheology match results from molten basalt experiments. We assess the goodness-of-fit of the simulation results and the computational cost. Our results guide the selection of numerical simulation codes for different applications, including inferring emplacement conditions of past lava flows, modeling the temporal evolution of ongoing flows during eruption, and probabilistic assessment of lava flow hazard prior to eruption. Finally, we outline potential experiments and desired key observational data from future flows that would extend existing benchmarking data sets.

  15. Assessing existing drought monitoring and forecasting capacities, mitigation and adaptation practices in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyabeze, W. R.; Dlamini, L.; Lahlou, O.; Imani, Y.; Alaoui, S. B.; Vermooten, J. S. A.

    2012-04-01

    Drought is one of the major natural hazards in many parts of the world, including Africa and some regions in Europe. Drought events have resulted in extensive damages to livelihoods, environment and economy. In 2011, a consortium consisting of 19 organisations from both Africa and Europe started a project (DEWFORA) aimed at developing a framework for the provision of early warning and response through drought impact mitigation for Africa. This framework covers the whole chain from monitoring and vulnerability assessment to forecasting, warning, response and knowledge dissemination. This paper presents the first results of the capacity assessment of drought monitoring and forecasting systems in Africa, the existing institutional frameworks and drought mitigation and adaptation practices. Its focus is particularly on the historical drought mitigation and adaptation actions identified in the North Africa - Maghreb Region (Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia) and in the Southern Africa - Limpopo Basin. This is based on an extensive review of historical drought experiences. From the 1920's to 2009, the study identified 37 drought seasons in the North African - Maghreb Region and 33 drought seasons in the Southern Africa - Limpopo Basin. Existing literature tends to capture the spatial extent of drought at national and administrative scale in great detail. This is driven by the need to map drought impacts (food shortage, communities affected) in order to inform drought relief efforts (short-term drought mitigation measures). However, the mapping of drought at catchment scale (hydrological unit), required for longer-term measures, is not well documented. At regional level, both in North Africa and Southern Africa, two organisations are involved in drought monitoring and forecasting, while at national level 22 organisations are involved in North Africa and 37 in Southern Africa. Regarding drought related mitigation actions, the inventory shows that the most common actions

  16. Phenology Data Products to Support Assessment and Forecasting of Phenology on Multiple Spatiotemporal Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerst, K.; Enquist, C.; Rosemartin, A.; Denny, E. G.; Marsh, L.; Moore, D. J.; Weltzin, J. F.

    2014-12-01

    The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; www.usanpn.org) serves science and society by promoting a broad understanding of plant and animal phenology and the relationships among phenological patterns and environmental change. The National Phenology Database maintained by USA-NPN now has over 3.7 million records for plants and animals for the period 1954-2014, with the majority of these observations collected since 2008 as part of a broad, national contributory science strategy. These data have been used in a number of science, conservation and resource management applications, including national assessments of historical and potential future trends in phenology, regional assessments of spatio-temporal variation in organismal activity, and local monitoring for invasive species detection. Customizable data downloads are freely available, and data are accompanied by FGDC-compliant metadata, data-use and data-attribution policies, vetted and documented methodologies and protocols, and version control. While users are free to develop custom algorithms for data cleaning, winnowing and summarization prior to analysis, the National Coordinating Office of USA-NPN is developing a suite of standard data products to facilitate use and application by a diverse set of data users. This presentation provides a progress report on data product development, including: (1) Quality controlled raw phenophase status data; (2) Derived phenometrics (e.g. onset, duration) at multiple scales; (3) Data visualization tools; (4) Tools to support assessment of species interactions and overlap; (5) Species responsiveness to environmental drivers; (6) Spatially gridded phenoclimatological products; and (7) Algorithms for modeling and forecasting future phenological responses. The prioritization of these data products is a direct response to stakeholder needs related to informing management and policy decisions. We anticipate that these products will contribute to broad understanding of plant

  17. Rapid assessment breast clinics--evolution through audit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toomey, D P; Cahill, R A; Birido, N; Jeffers, M; Loftus, B; McInerney, D; Rothwell, J; Geraghty, J G

    2006-11-01

    This observational, cohort study aimed to examine the potential utility of Rapid Assessment Breast Clinics (RABC) beyond cancer detection at presentation. One thousand four hundred and twenty nine women were studied over an 18 month period. 154 (10.7%) had breast cancer - 87.7% of whom were seen expediently with 92.9% being diagnosed at one attendance. One hundred and forty three (10%) of those with a benign diagnosis were found by routine questioning to have significant familial risk separate to their reason for referral. Despite careful triage, considerable contamination of appointment allotment occurred with many who were correctly triaged as non-urgent being seen 'urgently'. One hundred and seventy six attendees (12.3%) had neither the symptom that triggered referral, nor breast lump, nipple discharge nor family history of breast cancer, while 283 (19.8%) had no objective clinical or radiological abnormality. Although RABC reliably categorise malignant versus non-malignant diagnoses despite cluttering by low risk women, a significant proportion of non-cancer patients still require address of future risk rather than reassurance of their present status alone.

  18. Competence of Litter Ants for Rapid Biodiversity Assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. H. Saumya E. Silva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Rapid Biodiversity Assessment approaches associated with focusing taxa have overcome many of the problems related to large scale surveys. This study examined the suitability of litter ants as a focusing taxon by checking whether diversity and species assemblages of litter ants reflect the overall picture of arthropod diversity and assemblages in leaf litter in two vegetation types: secondary forest and pine plantation in Upper Hanthana forest reserve, Sri Lanka. In each vegetation type, arthropods were sampled using three sampling methods (Winkler extraction, hand collection, and pitfall traps along three 100 m line transects. From the two sites, 1887 litter ants (34 species and 3488 litter arthropods (52 species were collected. Species assemblages composition of both ants and other arthropods differed significantly between the two sites (ANOSIM, p=0.001 with both groups generating distinct clusters for the two sites (SIMPROF, p=0.001. But there was no significant correlation (p>0.05 between abundance and richness of litter ants and those of other arthropods in both vegetation types. The overall finding suggests that the litter ants do not reflect the holistic picture of arthropod diversity and assemblages in leaf litter, but the quality of the habitat for the survival of all litter arthropods.

  19. Rapid assessment of nonlinear optical propagation effects in dielectrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyo, J. Del; de La Cruz, A. Ruiz; Grace, E.; Ferrer, A.; Siegel, J.; Pasquazi, A.; Assanto, G.; Solis, J.

    2015-01-01

    Ultrafast laser processing applications need fast approaches to assess the nonlinear propagation of the laser beam in order to predict the optimal range of processing parameters in a wide variety of cases. We develop here a method based on the simple monitoring of the nonlinear beam shaping against numerical prediction. The numerical code solves the nonlinear Schrödinger equation with nonlinear absorption under simplified conditions by employing a state-of-the art computationally efficient approach. By comparing with experimental results we can rapidly estimate the nonlinear refractive index and nonlinear absorption coefficients of the material. The validity of this approach has been tested in a variety of experiments where nonlinearities play a key role, like spatial soliton shaping or fs-laser waveguide writing. The approach provides excellent results for propagated power densities for which free carrier generation effects can be neglected. Above such a threshold, the peculiarities of the nonlinear propagation of elliptical beams enable acquiring an instantaneous picture of the deposition of energy inside the material realistic enough to estimate the effective nonlinear refractive index and nonlinear absorption coefficients that can be used for predicting the spatial distribution of energy deposition inside the material and controlling the beam in the writing process.

  20. A rapid assessment of avoidable blindness in Southern Zambia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Lindfield

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: A rapid assessment of avoidable blindness (RAAB was conducted in Southern Zambia to establish the prevalence and causes of blindness in order to plan effective services and advocate for support for eye care to achieve the goals of VISION 2020: the right to sight. METHODS: Cluster randomisation was used to select villages in the survey area. These were further subdivided into segments. One segment was selected randomly and a survey team moved from house to house examining everyone over the age of 50 years. Each individual received a visual acuity assessment and simple ocular examination. Data was recorded on a standard proforma and entered into an established software programme for analysis. RESULTS: 2.29% of people over the age of 50 were found to be blind (VA <3/60 in the better eye with available correction. The major cause of blindness was cataract (47.2% with posterior segment disease being the next main cause (18.8%. 113 eyes had received cataract surgery with 30.1% having a poor outcome (VA <6/60 following surgery. Cataract surgical coverage showed that men (72% received more surgery than women (65%. DISCUSSION: The results from the RAAB survey in Zambia were very similar to the results from a similar survey in Malawi, where the main cause of blindness was cataract but posterior segment disease was also a significant contributor. Blindness in this part of Zambia is mainly avoidable and there is a need for comprehensive eye care services that can address both cataract and posterior segment disease in the population if the aim of VISION 2020 is to be achieved. Services should focus on quality and gender equity of cataract surgery.

  1. CTER—Rapid estimation of CTF parameters with error assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Penczek, Pawel A., E-mail: Pawel.A.Penczek@uth.tmc.edu [Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, The University of Texas Medical School, 6431 Fannin MSB 6.220, Houston, TX 77054 (United States); Fang, Jia [Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, The University of Texas Medical School, 6431 Fannin MSB 6.220, Houston, TX 77054 (United States); Li, Xueming; Cheng, Yifan [The Keck Advanced Microscopy Laboratory, Department of Biochemistry and Biophysics, University of California, San Francisco, CA 94158 (United States); Loerke, Justus; Spahn, Christian M.T. [Institut für Medizinische Physik und Biophysik, Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Charitéplatz 1, 10117 Berlin (Germany)

    2014-05-01

    In structural electron microscopy, the accurate estimation of the Contrast Transfer Function (CTF) parameters, particularly defocus and astigmatism, is of utmost importance for both initial evaluation of micrograph quality and for subsequent structure determination. Due to increases in the rate of data collection on modern microscopes equipped with new generation cameras, it is also important that the CTF estimation can be done rapidly and with minimal user intervention. Finally, in order to minimize the necessity for manual screening of the micrographs by a user it is necessary to provide an assessment of the errors of fitted parameters values. In this work we introduce CTER, a CTF parameters estimation method distinguished by its computational efficiency. The efficiency of the method makes it suitable for high-throughput EM data collection, and enables the use of a statistical resampling technique, bootstrap, that yields standard deviations of estimated defocus and astigmatism amplitude and angle, thus facilitating the automation of the process of screening out inferior micrograph data. Furthermore, CTER also outputs the spatial frequency limit imposed by reciprocal space aliasing of the discrete form of the CTF and the finite window size. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of CTER using a data set collected on a 300 kV Tecnai Polara (FEI) using the K2 Summit DED camera in super-resolution counting mode. Using CTER we obtained a structure of the 80S ribosome whose large subunit had a resolution of 4.03 Å without, and 3.85 Å with, inclusion of astigmatism parameters. - Highlights: • We describe methodology for estimation of CTF parameters with error assessment. • Error estimates provide means for automated elimination of inferior micrographs. • High computational efficiency allows real-time monitoring of EM data quality. • Accurate CTF estimation yields structure of the 80S human ribosome at 3.85 Å.

  2. The first rapid assessment of avoidable blindness (RAAB in Thailand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saichin Isipradit

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The majority of vision loss is preventable or treatable. Population surveys are crucial for planning, implementation, and monitoring policies and interventions to eliminate avoidable blindness and visual impairments. This is the first rapid assessment of avoidable blindness (RAAB study in Thailand. METHODS: A cross-sectional study of a population in Thailand age 50 years old or over aimed to assess the prevalence and causes of blindness and visual impairments. Using the Thailand National Census 2010 as the sampling frame, a stratified four-stage cluster sampling based on a probability proportional to size was conducted in 176 enumeration areas from 11 provinces. Participants received comprehensive eye examination by ophthalmologists. RESULTS: The age and sex adjusted prevalence of blindness (presenting visual acuity (VA <20/400, severe visual impairment (VA <20/200 but ≥20/400, and moderate visual impairment (VA <20/70 but ≥20/200 were 0.6% (95% CI: 0.5-0.8, 1.3% (95% CI: 1.0-1.6, 12.6% (95% CI: 10.8-14.5. There was no significant difference among the four regions of Thailand. Cataract was the main cause of vision loss accounted for 69.7% of blindness. Cataract surgical coverage in persons was 95.1% for cut off VA of 20/400. Refractive errors, diabetic retinopathy, glaucoma, and corneal opacities were responsible for 6.0%, 5.1%, 4.0%, and 2.0% of blindness respectively. CONCLUSION: Thailand is on track to achieve the goal of VISION 2020. However, there is still much room for improvement. Policy refinements and innovative interventions are recommended to alleviate blindness and visual impairments especially regarding the backlog of blinding cataract, management of non-communicative, chronic, age-related eye diseases such as glaucoma, age-related macular degeneration, and diabetic retinopathy, prevention of childhood blindness, and establishment of a robust eye health information system.

  3. Toward rapid analysis, forecast and discovery of bioactive compounds from herbs by jointly using thin layer chromatography and ratiometric surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Xiaoling; Jin, Yang; Dong, Fang; Cai, Yueqing; You, Zhengyi; You, Junhui; Zhang, Liying; Du, Shuhu

    2018-05-10

    Conventional isolation and identification of active compounds from herbs have been extensively reported by using various chromatographic and spectroscopic techniques. However, how to quickly discover new bioactive ingredients from natural sources still remains a challenging task due to the interference of their similar structures or matrices. Here, we present a grand approach for rapid analysis, forecast and discovery of bioactive compounds from herbs based on a hyphenated strategy of thin layer chromatography and ratiometric surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy. The performance of the hyphenated strategy is first evaluated by analyzing four protoberberine alkaloids, berberine (BER), coptisine (COP), palmatine (PAT) and jatrorrhizine (JAT), from a typical herb Coptidis Rhizoma as an example. It has been demonstrated that this coupling method can identify the four compounds by characteristic peaks at 728, 708, 736 and 732 cm -1 , and especially discriminate BER and COP (with similar migration distances) by ratiometric Raman intensity (I 708 /I 728 ). The corresponding limits of detection are 0.1, 0.05, 0.1 and 0.5 μM, respectively, which are about 1-2 orders of magnitude lower than those of direct observation method under 254 nm UV lamp. Based on these findings, the proposed method further guides forecast and discovery of unknown compounds from traditional Chinese herb Typhonii Rhizoma. Results infer that two trace alkaloids (BER and COP) from the n-butanol extract of Typhonii Rhizoma are found for the first time. Moreover, in vitro experiments manifest that BER can effectively decrease the viability of human glioma U87 cells by inducing cell cycle arrest in a concentration-dependent manner. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

    OpenAIRE

    McAllister, Patrick; Newell, G.; Matysiak, George

    2005-01-01

    Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The re...

  5. Assessing the Effectiveness of the Cone of Probability as a Visual Means of Communicating Scientific Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orlove, B. S.; Broad, K.; Meyer, R.

    2010-12-01

    We review the evolution, communication, and differing interpretations of the National Hurricane Center (NHC)'s "cone of uncertainty" hurricane forecast graphic, drawing on several related disciplines—cognitive psychology, visual anthropology, and risk communication theory. We examine the 2004 hurricane season, two specific hurricanes (Katrina 2005 and Ike 2008) and the 2010 hurricane season, still in progress. During the 2004 hurricane season, five named storms struck Florida. Our analysis of that season draws upon interviews with key government officials and media figures, archival research of Florida newspapers, analysis of public comments on the NHC cone of uncertainty graphic and a multiagency study of 2004 hurricane behavior. At that time, the hurricane forecast graphic was subject to misinterpretation by many members of the public. We identify several characteristics of this graphic that contributed to public misinterpretation. Residents overemphasized the specific track of the eye, failed to grasp the width of hurricanes, and generally did not recognize the timing of the passage of the hurricane. Little training was provided to emergency response managers in the interpretation of forecasts. In the following year, Katrina became a national scandal, further demonstrating the limitations of the cone as a means of leading to appropriate responses to forecasts. In the second half of the first decade of the 21st century, three major changes occurred in hurricane forecast communication: the forecasts themselves improved in terms of accuracy and lead time, the NHC made minor changes in the graphics and expanded the explanatory material that accompanies the graphics, and some efforts were made to reach out to emergency response planners and municipal officials to enhance their understanding of the forecasts and graphics. There were some improvements in the responses to Ike, though a number of deaths were due to inadequate evacuations, and property damage probably

  6. Short-term Local Forecasting by Artificial Intelligence Techniques and Assess Related Social Effects from Heterogeneous Data

    OpenAIRE

    Gong, Bing

    2017-01-01

    This work aims to use the sophisticated artificial intelligence and statistic techniques to forecast pollution and assess its social impact. To achieve the target of the research, this study is divided into several research sub-objectives as follows: First research sub-objective: propose a framework for relocating and reconfiguring the existing pollution monitoring networks by using feature selection, artificial intelligence techniques, and information theory. Second research sub-objective: c...

  7. CTER-rapid estimation of CTF parameters with error assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penczek, Pawel A; Fang, Jia; Li, Xueming; Cheng, Yifan; Loerke, Justus; Spahn, Christian M T

    2014-05-01

    In structural electron microscopy, the accurate estimation of the Contrast Transfer Function (CTF) parameters, particularly defocus and astigmatism, is of utmost importance for both initial evaluation of micrograph quality and for subsequent structure determination. Due to increases in the rate of data collection on modern microscopes equipped with new generation cameras, it is also important that the CTF estimation can be done rapidly and with minimal user intervention. Finally, in order to minimize the necessity for manual screening of the micrographs by a user it is necessary to provide an assessment of the errors of fitted parameters values. In this work we introduce CTER, a CTF parameters estimation method distinguished by its computational efficiency. The efficiency of the method makes it suitable for high-throughput EM data collection, and enables the use of a statistical resampling technique, bootstrap, that yields standard deviations of estimated defocus and astigmatism amplitude and angle, thus facilitating the automation of the process of screening out inferior micrograph data. Furthermore, CTER also outputs the spatial frequency limit imposed by reciprocal space aliasing of the discrete form of the CTF and the finite window size. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of CTER using a data set collected on a 300kV Tecnai Polara (FEI) using the K2 Summit DED camera in super-resolution counting mode. Using CTER we obtained a structure of the 80S ribosome whose large subunit had a resolution of 4.03Å without, and 3.85Å with, inclusion of astigmatism parameters. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Rapid assessment of injection practices in Cambodia, 2002

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goldstein Susan

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Injection overuse and unsafe injection practices facilitate transmission of bloodborne pathogens such as hepatitis B virus (HBV, hepatitis C virus (HCV, and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV. Anecdotal reports of unsafe and unnecessary therapeutic injections and the high prevalence of HBV (8.0%, HCV (6.5%, and HIV (2.6% infection in Cambodia have raised concern over injection safety. To estimate the magnitude and patterns of such practices, a rapid assessment of injection practices was conducted. Methods We surveyed a random sample of the general population in Takeo Province and convenience samples of prescribers and injection providers in Takeo Province and Phnom Penh city regarding injection-related knowledge, attitudes, and practices. Injection providers were observed administering injections. Data were collected using standardized methods adapted from the World Health Organization safe injection assessment guidelines. Results Among the general population sample (n = 500, the overall injection rate was 5.9 injections per person-year, with 40% of participants reporting receipt of ≥ 1 injection during the previous 6 months. Therapeutic injections, intravenous infusions, and immunizations accounted for 74%, 16% and 10% of injections, respectively. The majority (>85% of injections were received in the private sector. All participants who recalled their last injection reported the injection was administered with a newly opened disposable syringe and needle. Prescribers (n = 60 reported that 47% of the total prescriptions they wrote included a therapeutic injection or infusion. Among injection providers (n = 60, 58% recapped the syringe after use and 13% did not dispose of the used needle and syringe appropriately. Over half (53% of the providers reported a needlestick injury during the previous 12 months. Ninety percent of prescribers and injection providers were aware HBV, HCV, and HIV were transmitted through unsafe

  9. Performance and Quality Assessment of the Forthcoming Copernicus Marine Service Global Ocean Monitoring and Forecasting Real-Time System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lellouche, J. M.; Le Galloudec, O.; Greiner, E.; Garric, G.; Regnier, C.; Drillet, Y.

    2016-02-01

    Mercator Ocean currently delivers in real-time daily services (weekly analyses and daily forecast) with a global 1/12° high resolution system. The model component is the NEMO platform driven at the surface by the IFS ECMWF atmospheric analyses and forecasts. Observations are assimilated by means of a reduced-order Kalman filter with a 3D multivariate modal decomposition of the forecast error. It includes an adaptive-error estimate and a localization algorithm. Along track altimeter data, satellite Sea Surface Temperature and in situ temperature and salinity vertical profiles are jointly assimilated to estimate the initial conditions for numerical ocean forecasting. A 3D-Var scheme provides a correction for the slowly-evolving large-scale biases in temperature and salinity.Since May 2015, Mercator Ocean opened the Copernicus Marine Service (CMS) and is in charge of the global ocean analyses and forecast, at eddy resolving resolution. In this context, R&D activities have been conducted at Mercator Ocean these last years in order to improve the real-time 1/12° global system for the next CMS version in 2016. The ocean/sea-ice model and the assimilation scheme benefit among others from the following improvements: large-scale and objective correction of atmospheric quantities with satellite data, new Mean Dynamic Topography taking into account the last version of GOCE geoid, new adaptive tuning of some observational errors, new Quality Control on the assimilated temperature and salinity vertical profiles based on dynamic height criteria, assimilation of satellite sea-ice concentration, new freshwater runoff from ice sheets melting …This presentation doesn't focus on the impact of each update, but rather on the overall behavior of the system integrating all updates. This assessment reports on the products quality improvements, highlighting the level of performance and the reliability of the new system.

  10. Assessing the Effects of Climate Variability on Orange Yield in Florida to Reduce Production Forecast Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Concha Larrauri, P.

    2015-12-01

    Orange production in Florida has experienced a decline over the past decade. Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 greatly affected production, almost to the same degree as strong freezes that occurred in the 1980's. The spread of the citrus greening disease after the hurricanes has also contributed to a reduction in orange production in Florida. The occurrence of hurricanes and diseases cannot easily be predicted but the additional effects of climate on orange yield can be studied and incorporated into existing production forecasts that are based on physical surveys, such as the October Citrus forecast issued every year by the USDA. Specific climate variables ocurring before and after the October forecast is issued can have impacts on flowering, orange drop rates, growth, and maturation, and can contribute to the forecast error. Here we present a methodology to incorporate local climate variables to predict the USDA's orange production forecast error, and we study the local effects of climate on yield in different counties in Florida. This information can aid farmers to gain an insight on what is to be expected during the orange production cycle, and can help supply chain managers to better plan their strategy.

  11. Assessing the potential for improving S2S forecast skill through multimodel ensembling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigaud, N.; Robertson, A. W.; Tippett, M. K.; Wang, L.; Bell, M. J.

    2016-12-01

    Non-linear logistic regression is well suited to probability forecasting and has been successfully applied in the past to ensemble weather and climate predictions, providing access to the full probabilities distribution without any Gaussian assumption. However, little work has been done at sub-monthly lead times where relatively small re-forecast ensembles and lengths represent new challenges for which post-processing avenues have yet to be investigated. A promising approach consists in extending the definition of non-linear logistic regression by including the quantile of the forecast distribution as one of the predictors. So-called Extended Logistic Regression (ELR), which enables mutually consistent individual threshold probabilities, is here applied to ECMWF, CFSv2 and CMA re-forecasts from the S2S database in order to produce rainfall probabilities at weekly resolution. The ELR model is trained on seasonally-varying tercile categories computed for lead times of 1 to 4 weeks. It is then tested in a cross-validated manner, i.e. allowing real-time predictability applications, to produce rainfall tercile probabilities from individual weekly hindcasts that are finally combined by equal pooling. Results will be discussed over a broader North American region, where individual and MME forecasts generated out to 4 weeks lead are characterized by good probabilistic reliability but low sharpness, exhibiting systematically more skill in winter than summer.

  12. Assessment of the potential forecasting skill of a global hydrological model in reproducing the occurrence of monthly flow extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Candogan Yossef

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available As an initial step in assessing the prospect of using global hydrological models (GHMs for hydrological forecasting, this study investigates the skill of the GHM PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing the occurrence of past extremes in monthly discharge on a global scale. Global terrestrial hydrology from 1958 until 2001 is simulated by forcing PCR-GLOBWB with daily meteorological data obtained by downscaling the CRU dataset to daily fields using the ERA-40 reanalysis. Simulated discharge values are compared with observed monthly streamflow records for a selection of 20 large river basins that represent all continents and a wide range of climatic zones.

    We assess model skill in three ways all of which contribute different information on the potential forecasting skill of a GHM. First, the general skill of the model in reproducing hydrographs is evaluated. Second, model skill in reproducing significantly higher and lower flows than the monthly normals is assessed in terms of skill scores used for forecasts of categorical events. Third, model skill in reproducing flood and drought events is assessed by constructing binary contingency tables for floods and droughts for each basin. The skill is then compared to that of a simple estimation of discharge from the water balance (PE.

    The results show that the model has skill in all three types of assessments. After bias correction the model skill in simulating hydrographs is improved considerably. For most basins it is higher than that of the climatology. The skill is highest in reproducing monthly anomalies. The model also has skill in reproducing floods and droughts, with a markedly higher skill in floods. The model skill far exceeds that of the water balance estimate. We conclude that the prospect for using PCR-GLOBWB for monthly and seasonal forecasting of the occurrence of hydrological extremes is positive. We argue that this conclusion applies equally to other similar GHMs and

  13. Operational skill assessment of the IBI-MFC Ocean Forecasting System within the frame of the CMEMS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorente Jimenez, Pablo; Garcia-Sotillo, Marcos; Amo-Balandron, Arancha; Aznar Lecocq, Roland; Perez Gomez, Begoña; Levier, Bruno; Alvarez-Fanjul, Enrique

    2016-04-01

    Since operational ocean forecasting systems (OOFSs) are increasingly used as tools to support high-stakes decision-making for coastal management, a rigorous skill assessment of model performance becomes essential. In this context, the IBI-MFC (Iberia-Biscay-Ireland Monitoring & Forecasting Centre) has been providing daily ocean model estimates and forecasts for the IBI regional seas since 2011, first in the frame of MyOcean projects and later as part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). A comprehensive web validation tool named NARVAL (North Atlantic Regional VALidation) has been developed to routinely monitor IBI performance and to evaluate model's veracity and prognostic capabilities. Three-dimensional comparisons are carried out on a different time basis ('online mode' - daily verifications - and 'delayed mode' - for longer time periods -) using a broad variety of in-situ (buoys, tide-gauges, ARGO-floats, drifters and gliders) and remote-sensing (satellite and HF radars) observational sources as reference fields to validate against the NEMO model solution. Product quality indicators and meaningful skill metrics are automatically computed not only averaged over the entire IBI domain but also over specific sub-regions of particular interest from a user perspective (i.e. coastal or shelf areas) in order to determine IBI spatial and temporal uncertainty levels. A complementary aspect of NARVAL web tool is the intercomparison of different CMEMS forecast model solutions in overlapping areas. Noticeable efforts are in progress in order to quantitatively assess the quality and consistency of nested system outputs by setting up specific intercomparison exercises on different temporal and spatial scales, encompassing global configurations (CMEMS Global system), regional applications (NWS and MED ones) and local high-resolution coastal models (i.e. the PdE SAMPA system in the Gibraltar Strait). NARVAL constitutes a powerful approach to increase

  14. The key role of eyewitnesses in rapid earthquake impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, Rémy; Steed, Robert; Mazet-Roux, Gilles; Roussel, Frédéric; Etivant, Caroline

    2014-05-01

    Uncertainties in rapid earthquake impact models are intrinsically large even when excluding potential indirect losses (fires, landslides, tsunami…). The reason is that they are based on several factors which are themselves difficult to constrain, such as the geographical distribution of shaking intensity, building type inventory and vulnerability functions. The difficulties can be illustrated by two boundary cases. For moderate (around M6) earthquakes, the size of potential damage zone and the epicentral location uncertainty share comparable dimension of about 10-15km. When such an earthquake strikes close to an urban area, like in 1999, in Athens (M5.9), earthquake location uncertainties alone can lead to dramatically different impact scenario. Furthermore, for moderate magnitude, the overall impact is often controlled by individual accidents, like in 2002 in Molise, Italy (M5.7), in Bingol, Turkey (M6.4) in 2003 or in Christchurch, New Zealand (M6.3) where respectively 23 out of 30, 84 out of 176 and 115 out of 185 of the causalities perished in a single building failure. Contrastingly, for major earthquakes (M>7), the point source approximation is not valid anymore, and impact assessment requires knowing exactly where the seismic rupture took place, whether it was unilateral, bilateral etc.… and this information is not readily available directly after the earthquake's occurrence. In-situ observations of actual impact provided by eyewitnesses can dramatically reduce impact models uncertainties. We will present the overall strategy developed at the EMSC which comprises of crowdsourcing and flashsourcing techniques, the development of citizen operated seismic networks, and the use of social networks to engage with eyewitnesses within minutes of an earthquake occurrence. For instance, testimonies are collected through online questionnaires available in 32 languages and automatically processed in maps of effects. Geo-located pictures are collected and then

  15. Initial assessment of a multi-model approach to spring flood forecasting in Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, J.; Uvo, C. B.; Foster, K.; Yang, W.

    2015-06-01

    Hydropower is a major energy source in Sweden and proper reservoir management prior to the spring flood onset is crucial for optimal production. This requires useful forecasts of the accumulated discharge in the spring flood period (i.e. the spring-flood volume, SFV). Today's SFV forecasts are generated using a model-based climatological ensemble approach, where time series of precipitation and temperature from historical years are used to force a calibrated and initialised set-up of the HBV model. In this study, a number of new approaches to spring flood forecasting, that reflect the latest developments with respect to analysis and modelling on seasonal time scales, are presented and evaluated. Three main approaches, represented by specific methods, are evaluated in SFV hindcasts for three main Swedish rivers over a 10-year period with lead times between 0 and 4 months. In the first approach, historically analogue years with respect to the climate in the period preceding the spring flood are identified and used to compose a reduced ensemble. In the second, seasonal meteorological ensemble forecasts are used to drive the HBV model over the spring flood period. In the third approach, statistical relationships between SFV and the large-sale atmospheric circulation are used to build forecast models. None of the new approaches consistently outperform the climatological ensemble approach, but for specific locations and lead times improvements of 20-30 % are found. When combining all forecasts in a weighted multi-model approach, a mean improvement over all locations and lead times of nearly 10 % was indicated. This demonstrates the potential of the approach and further development and optimisation into an operational system is ongoing.

  16. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puechl, K H

    1975-12-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis.

  17. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puechl, K.H.

    1975-01-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

  18. Assessing the accuracy of forecasting: applying standard diagnostic assessment tools to a health technology early warning system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Sue; Hyde, Chris; Cook, Alison; Packer, Claire; Stevens, Andrew

    2004-01-01

    Early warning systems are an integral part of many health technology assessment programs. Despite this finding, to date, there have been no quantitative evaluations of the accuracy of predictions made by these systems. We report a study evaluating the accuracy of predictions made by the main United Kingdom early warning system. As prediction of impact is analogous to diagnosis, a method normally applied to determine the accuracy of diagnostic tests was used. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the National Horizon Scanning Centre's prediction methods were estimated with reference to an (imperfect) gold standard, that is, expert opinion of impact 3 to 5 years after prediction. The sensitivity of predictions was 71 percent (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 0.36-0.92), and the specificity was 73 percent (95 percent CI, 0.64-0.8). The negative predictive value was 98 percent (95 percent CI, 0.92-0.99), and the positive predictive value was 14 percent (95 percent CI, 0.06-0.3). Forecasting is difficult, but the results suggest that this early warning system's predictions have an acceptable level of accuracy. However, there are caveats. The first is that early warning systems may themselves reduce the impact of a technology, as helping to control adoption and diffusion is their main purpose. The second is that the use of an imperfect gold standard may bias the results. As early warning systems are viewed as an increasingly important component of health technology assessment and decision making, their outcomes must be evaluated. The method used here should be investigated further and the accuracy of other early warning systems explored.

  19. Landslides in Nicaragua - Mapping, Inventory, Hazard Assessment, Vulnerability Reduction, and Forecasting Attempts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dévoli, G.; Strauch, W.; Álvarez, A.; Muñoz, A.; Kjekstad, O.

    2009-04-01

    A successful landslide hazard and risk assessment requires awareness and good understanding of the potential landslide problems within the geographic area involved. However, this requirement is not always met in developing countries where population, scientific community, and the government may not be aware of the landslide threat. The landslide hazard assessment is often neglected or is based on sparse and not well documented technical information. In Nicaragua (Central America), the basic conditions for landslide hazard and risk assessment were first created after the catastrophic landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in October 1998. A single landslide took the life of thousands of people at Casita volcano forcing entire communities to be evacuated or relocated and, furthermore, thousands of smaller landslides caused loss of fertile soils and pasture lands, and made serious damages to the infrastructure. Since those events occurred, the public awareness has increased and the country relies now on new local and national governmental laws and policies, on a number of landslide investigations, and on educational and training programs. Dozens of geologists have been capacitated to investigate landslide prone areas, The Instituto Nicaragüense de Estudios Territoriales (INETER), governmental geo-scientific institution, has assumed the responsibility to help land-use planners and public officials to reduce geological hazard losses. They are committed to work cooperatively with national, international, and local agencies, universities and the private sector to provide scientific information and improve public safety through forecasting and warnings. However, in order to provide successful long-term landslide hazard assessment, the institutions must face challenges related to the scarcity and varied quality of available landslide information; collection and access to dispersed data and documents; organization of landslide information in a form that can be easy to

  20. Forecast Combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermann, Allan G

    2005-01-01

    Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

  1. Forecast combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

    2010-01-01

    We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

  2. Assessment of a conceptual hydrological model and artificial neural networks for daily outflows forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rezaeianzadeh, M.; Stein, A.; Tabari, H.; Abghari, H.; Jalalkamali, N.; Hosseinipour, E.Z.; Singh, V.P.

    2013-01-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are used by hydrologists and engineers to forecast flows at the outlet of a watershed. They are employed in particular where hydrological data are limited. Despite these developments, practitioners still prefer conventional hydrological models. This study applied

  3. Rapid Carbon Assessment Project: Data Summary and Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wills, Skye; Loecke, Terry; Roecker, Stephen; Beaudette, Dylan; Libohova, Zamir; Monger, Curtis; Lindbo, David

    2017-04-01

    The Rapid Carbon Assessment (RaCA) project was undertaken to estimate regional soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks across the conterminous United States (CONUS) as a one-time event. Sample locations were selected randomly using the NRI (National Resource Inventory) sampling framework covering all areas in CONUS with SSURGO certified maps as of Dec 2012. Within each of 17 regions, sites were selected by a combination of soil and land use/cover groups (LUGR). At each of more than 6,000 sites five pedons were described and sampled to a depth of 100cm (one central and 4 satellites 30m in each cardinal direction). There were 144,833 samples described from 32,084 pedons at 6, 017 sites. A combination of measurement and modeled bulk density was used for all samples. A visible near-infrared (VNIR) spectrophotometer was used to scan each sample for prediction of soil carbon contents. The samples of each central pedon were analyzed by the Kellogg Soil Survey Laboratory for combustion carbon and calcimeter inorganic carbon. SOC stocks were calculated for each pedon using a standard fixed depth technique to depths of 5, 30 and 100cm. Pedon SOC stocks were transformed to better approach normality before LUGR, regional and land use/cover summaries were calculated. The values reported are geometric means. A detailed spatial map can be produced using LUGR mean assignment to correlated pixels. LUGR values range from 1 to 3,000 Mg ha-1. While some artifacts are visible due to the stratified nature of sampling and extrapolation, the predictions are generally smooth and highlight some distinct geomorphic features including the sandhills in the Great Plains in the central US, mountainous regions in the West and coastal wetlands in the East. Regional averages range from 46 Mg ha-1 in the desert Southwest to 182 Mg ha-1 in the Northeast. Regional trends correlate to climate variables such as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. While land use/cover classes vary in mean values

  4. Assessment of a new seasonal to inter-annual operational Great Lakes water supply, water levels, and connecting channel flow forecasting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronewold, A.; Fry, L. M.; Hunter, T.; Pei, L.; Smith, J.; Lucier, H.; Mueller, R.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has recently operationalized a suite of ensemble forecasts of Net Basin Supply (NBS), water levels, and connecting channel flows that was developed through a collaboration among USACE, NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ontario Power Generation (OPG), New York Power Authority (NYPA), and the Niagara River Control Center (NRCC). These forecasts are meant to provide reliable projections of potential extremes in daily discharge in the Niagara and St. Lawrence Rivers over a long time horizon (5 years). The suite of forecasts includes eight configurations that vary by (a) NBS model configuration, (b) meteorological forcings, and (c) incorporation of seasonal climate projections through the use of weighting. Forecasts are updated on a weekly basis, and represent the first operational forecasts of Great Lakes water levels and flows that span daily to inter-annual horizons and employ realistic regulation logic and lake-to-lake routing. We will present results from a hindcast assessment conducted during the transition from research to operation, as well as early indications of success rates determined through operational verification of forecasts. Assessment will include an exploration of the relative skill of various forecast configurations at different time horizons and the potential for application to hydropower decision making and Great Lakes water management.

  5. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Swains, American Samoa in 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  6. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Guguan, Marianas in 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  7. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Maui, Main Hawaiian Islands in 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  8. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Aguijan, Marianas in 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  9. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Hawaii, Main Hawaiian Islands in 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  10. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Johnston, Pacific Remote Island Areas in 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  11. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Niihau, Main Hawaiian Islands in 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  12. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Saipan, Marianas in 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  13. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Ofu & Olosega, American Samoa in 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  14. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Palmyra, Pacific Remote Island Areas in 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  15. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Jarvis, Pacific Remote Island Areas in 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  16. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Kingman, Pacific Remote Island Areas in 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  17. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Kauai, Main Hawaiian Islands in 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  18. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Farallon de Pajaros, Marianas in 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  19. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Tau, American Samoa in 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  20. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Pearl & Hermes, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands in 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  1. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Guam, Marianas in 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  2. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Lanai, Main Hawaiian Islands in 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  3. Registry Assessment of Peripheral Interventional Devices (RAPID): Registry assessment of peripheral interventional devices core data elements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, W Schuyler; Krucoff, Mitchell W; Morales, Pablo; Wilgus, Rebecca W; Heath, Anne H; Williams, Mary F; Tcheng, James E; Marinac-Dabic, J Danica; Malone, Misti L; Reed, Terrie L; Fukaya, Rie; Lookstein, Robert A; Handa, Nobuhiro; Aronow, Herbert D; Bertges, Daniel J; Jaff, Michael R; Tsai, Thomas T; Smale, Joshua A; Zaugg, Margo J; Thatcher, Robert J; Cronenwett, Jack L

    2018-02-01

    The current state of evaluating patients with peripheral artery disease and more specifically of evaluating medical devices used for peripheral vascular intervention (PVI) remains challenging because of the heterogeneity of the disease process, the multiple physician specialties that perform PVI, the multitude of devices available to treat peripheral artery disease, and the lack of consensus about the best treatment approaches. Because PVI core data elements are not standardized across clinical care, clinical trials, and registries, aggregation of data across different data sources and physician specialties is currently not feasible. Under the auspices of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Medical Device Epidemiology Network initiative-and its PASSION (Predictable and Sustainable Implementation of the National Registries) program, in conjunction with other efforts to align clinical data standards-the Registry Assessment of Peripheral Interventional Devices (RAPID) workgroup was convened. RAPID is a collaborative, multidisciplinary effort to develop a consensus lexicon and to promote interoperability across clinical care, clinical trials, and national and international registries of PVI. The current manuscript presents the initial work from RAPID to standardize clinical data elements and definitions, to establish a framework within electronic health records and health information technology procedural reporting systems, and to implement an informatics-based approach to promote the conduct of pragmatic clinical trials and registry efforts in PVI. Ultimately, we hope this work will facilitate and improve device evaluation and surveillance for patients, clinicians, health outcomes researchers, industry, policymakers, and regulators. Copyright © 2017 Society for Vascular Surgery. All rights reserved.

  4. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  5. Assessment of the importance of the current-wave coupling in the shelf ocean forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Jordà

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The effects of wave-current interactions on shelf ocean forecasts is investigated in the framework of the MFSTEP (Mediterranean Forecasting System Project Towards Enviromental Predictions project. A one way sequential coupling approach is adopted to link the wave model (WAM to the circulation model (SYMPHONIE. The coupling of waves and currents has been done considering four main processes: wave refraction due to currents, surface wind drag and bottom drag modifications due to waves, and the wave induced mass flux. The coupled modelling system is implemented in the southern Catalan shelf (NW Mediterranean, a region with characteristics similar to most of the Mediterranean shelves. The sensitivity experiments are run in a typical operational configuration. The wave refraction by currents seems to be not very relevant in a microtidal context such as the western Mediterranean. The main effect of waves on current forecasts is through the modification of the wind drag. The Stokes drift also plays a significant role due to its spatial and temporal characteristics. Finally, the enhanced bottom friction is just noticeable in the inner shelf.

  6. Rapid assessment of soil and groundwater tritium by vegetation sampling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, C.E. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    A rapid and relatively inexpensive technique for defining the extent of groundwater contamination by tritium has been investigated. The technique uses existing vegetation to sample the groundwater. Water taken up by deep rooted trees is collected by enclosing tree branches in clear plastic bags. Water evaporated from the leaves condenses on the inner surface of the bag. The water is removed from the bag with a syringe. The bags can be sampled many times. Tritium in the water is detected by liquid scintillation counting. The water collected in the bags has no color and counts as well as distilled water reference samples. The technique was used in an area of known tritium contamination and proved to be useful in defining the extent of tritium contamination

  7. Accuracy limits on rapid assessment of gently varying bathymetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, B. Edward; Holland, Charles

    2002-05-01

    Accuracy limits for rapidly probing shallow water bathymetry are investigated as a function of bottom slope and other relevant parameters. The probe scheme [B. E. McDonald and Charles Holland, J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 110, 2767 (2001)] uses a time reversed mirror (TRM) to ensonify a thin annulus on the ocean bottom at ranges of a few km from a vertical send/ receive array. The annulus is shifted in range by variable bathymetry (perturbation theory shows that the focal annulus experiences a radial shift proportional to the integrated bathymetry along a given azimuth). The range shift implies an azimuth-dependent time of maximum reverberation. Thus the reverberant return contains information that might be inverted to give bathymetric parameters. The parameter range over which the perturbation result is accurate is explored using the RAM code for propagation in arbitrarily range-dependent environments. [Work supported by NRL.

  8. A rapid stability assessment of China's IGS sites after the Ms7. 0 Lushan earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Jie

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available A rapid and accurate assessment of the stability of surveying and mapping reference points is important for post – disaster rescue, disaster relief and reconstruction activities. Using Precise Point Positioning (PPP technology, a rapid assessment of the stability of the IGS sites in China was performed after the Ms 7. 0 Lushan earthquake using rapid precise ephemeris and rapid precise satellite clock products. The results show that the earthquake had a very small impact and did not cause significant permanent deformation at the IGS sites. Most of the sites were unaffected and remained stable after the earthquake.

  9. Recent developments and assessment of a three-dimensional PBL parameterization for improved wind forecasting over complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosovic, B.; Jimenez, P. A.; Haupt, S. E.; Martilli, A.; Olson, J.; Bao, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    At present, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations available in most numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are one-dimensional. One-dimensional parameterizations are based on the assumption of horizontal homogeneity. This homogeneity assumption is appropriate for grid cell sizes greater than 10 km. However, for mesoscale simulations of flows in complex terrain with grid cell sizes below 1 km, the assumption of horizontal homogeneity is violated. Applying a one-dimensional PBL parameterization to high-resolution mesoscale simulations in complex terrain could result in significant error. For high-resolution mesoscale simulations of flows in complex terrain, we have therefore developed and implemented a three-dimensional (3D) PBL parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The implementation of the 3D PBL scheme is based on the developments outlined by Mellor and Yamada (1974, 1982). Our implementation in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model uses a pure algebraic model (level 2) to diagnose the turbulent fluxes. To evaluate the performance of the 3D PBL model, we use observations from the Wind Forecast Improvement Project 2 (WFIP2). The WFIP2 field study took place in the Columbia River Gorge area from 2015-2017. We focus on selected cases when physical phenomena of significance for wind energy applications such as mountain waves, topographic wakes, and gap flows were observed. Our assessment of the 3D PBL parameterization also considers a large-eddy simulation (LES). We carried out a nested LES with grid cell sizes of 30 m and 10 m covering a large fraction of the WFIP2 study area. Both LES domains were discretized using 6000 x 3000 x 200 grid cells in zonal, meridional, and vertical direction, respectively. The LES results are used to assess the relative magnitude of horizontal gradients of turbulent stresses and fluxes in comparison to vertical gradients. The presentation will highlight the advantages of the 3

  10. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  11. Performance Assessment of Black Box Capacity Forecasting for Multi-Market Trade Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pamela MacDougall

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available With the growth of renewable generated electricity in the energy mix, large energy storage and flexible demand, particularly aggregated demand response is becoming a front runner as a new participant in the wholesale energy markets. One of the biggest barriers for the integration of aggregator services into market participation is knowledge of the current and future flexible capacity. To calculate the available flexibility, the current aggregator pilot and simulation implementations use lower level measurements and device specifications. This type of implementation is not scalable due to computational constraints, as well as it could conflict with end user privacy rights. Black box machine learning approaches have been proven to accurately estimate the available capacity of a cluster of heating devices using only aggregated data. This study will investigate the accuracy of this approach when applied to a heterogeneous virtual power plant (VPP. Firstly, a sensitivity analysis of the machine learning model is performed when varying the underlying device makeup of the VPP. Further, the forecasted flexible capacity of a heterogeneous residential VPP was applied to a trade strategy, which maintains a day ahead schedule, as well as offers flexibility to the imbalance market. This performance is then compared when using the same strategy with no capacity forecasting, as well as perfect knowledge. It was shown that at most, the highest average error, regardless of the VPP makeup, was still less than 9%. Further, when applying the forecasted capacity to a trading strategy, 89% of the optimal performance can be met. This resulted in a reduction of monthly costs by approximately 20%.

  12. Forecast skill score assessment of a relocatable ocean prediction system, using a simplified objective analysis method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onken, Reiner

    2017-11-01

    A relocatable ocean prediction system (ROPS) was employed to an observational data set which was collected in June 2014 in the waters to the west of Sardinia (western Mediterranean) in the framework of the REP14-MED experiment. The observational data, comprising more than 6000 temperature and salinity profiles from a fleet of underwater gliders and shipborne probes, were assimilated in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), which is the heart of ROPS, and verified against independent observations from ScanFish tows by means of the forecast skill score as defined by Murphy(1993). A simplified objective analysis (OA) method was utilised for assimilation, taking account of only those profiles which were located within a predetermined time window W. As a result of a sensitivity study, the highest skill score was obtained for a correlation length scale C = 12.5 km, W = 24 h, and r = 1, where r is the ratio between the error of the observations and the background error, both for temperature and salinity. Additional ROPS runs showed that (i) the skill score of assimilation runs was mostly higher than the score of a control run without assimilation, (i) the skill score increased with increasing forecast range, and (iii) the skill score for temperature was higher than the score for salinity in the majority of cases. Further on, it is demonstrated that the vast number of observations can be managed by the applied OA method without data reduction, enabling timely operational forecasts even on a commercially available personal computer or a laptop.

  13. Evaluating hydrological response to forecasted land-use change—scenario testing with the automated geospatial watershed assessment (AGWA) tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepner, William G.; Semmens, Darius J.; Hernandez, Mariano; Goodrich, David C.

    2009-01-01

    Envisioning and evaluating future scenarios has emerged as a critical component of both science and social decision-making. The ability to assess, report, map, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions to maintain the sustainable nature of our ecosystem services now and into the future. During the past two decades, important advances in the integration of remote imagery, computer processing, and spatial-analysis technologies have been used to develop landscape information that can be integrated with hydrologic models to determine long-term change and make predictive inferences about the future. Two diverse case studies in northwest Oregon (Willamette River basin) and southeastern Arizona (San Pedro River) were examined in regard to future land use scenarios relative to their impact on surface water conditions (e.g., sediment yield and surface runoff) using hydrologic models associated with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The base reference grid for land cover was modified in both study locations to reflect stakeholder preferences 20 to 60 yrs into the future, and the consequences of landscape change were evaluated relative to the selected future scenarios. The two studies provide examples of integrating hydrologic modeling with a scenario analysis framework to evaluate plausible future forecasts and to understand the potential impact of landscape change on ecosystem services.

  14. Milestones: a rapid assessment method for the Clinical Competency Committee

    OpenAIRE

    Nabors, Christopher; Forman, Leanne; Peterson, Stephen J.; Gennarelli, Melissa; Aronow, Wilbert S.; DeLorenzo, Lawrence; Chandy, Dipak; Ahn, Chul; Sule, Sachin; Stallings, Gary W.; Khera, Sahil; Palaniswamy, Chandrasekar; Frishman, William H.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Educational milestones are now used to assess the developmental progress of all U.S. graduate medical residents during training. Twice annually, each program?s Clinical Competency Committee (CCC) makes these determinations and reports its findings to the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME). The ideal way to conduct the CCC is not known. After finding that deliberations reliant upon the new milestones were time intensive, our internal medicine residency pr...

  15. Statistical parameters as a means to a priori assess the accuracy of solar forecasting models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voyant, Cyril; Soubdhan, Ted; Lauret, Philippe; David, Mathieu; Muselli, Marc

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we propose to determinate and to test a set of 20 statistical parameters in order to estimate the short term predictability of the global horizontal irradiation time series and thereby to propose a new prospective tool indicating the expected error regardless the forecasting methods used. The mean absolute log return, which is a tool usually used in econometrics but never in global radiation prediction, proves to be a very good estimator. Some examples of the use of this tool are exposed, showing the interest of this statistical parameter in concrete cases of predictions or optimizations. This study gives a judgment for engineers and researchers on the installation or management of solar plants and could help in minimizing the energy crisis allowing to improve the renewable energy part of the energy mix. - Highlights: • Use of statistical parameter never used for the global radiation forecasting. • A priori index allowing to optimize easily and quickly a clear sky model. • New methodology allowing to quantify the prediction error regardless the predictor used. • The prediction error depends more on the location and the time series type than the machine Learning method used.

  16. Developing the RIAM method (rapid impact assessment matrix) in the context of impact significance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ijaes, Asko; Kuitunen, Markku T.; Jalava, Kimmo

    2010-01-01

    In this paper the applicability of the RIAM method (rapid impact assessment matrix) is evaluated in the context of impact significance assessment. The methodological issues considered in the study are: 1) to test the possibilities of enlarging the scoring system used in the method, and 2) to compare the significance classifications of RIAM and unaided decision-making to estimate the consistency between these methods. The data used consisted of projects for which funding had been applied for via the European Union's Regional Development Trust in the area of Central Finland. Cases were evaluated with respect to their environmental, social and economic impacts using an assessment panel. The results showed the scoring framework used in RIAM could be modified according to the problem situation at hand, which enhances its application potential. However the changes made in criteria B did not significantly affect the final ratings of the method, which indicates the high importance of criteria A1 (importance) and A2 (magnitude) to the overall results. The significance classes obtained by the two methods diverged notably. In general the ratings given by RIAM tended to be smaller compared to intuitive judgement implying that the RIAM method may be somewhat conservative in character.

  17. Impacts of Amazonia biomass burning aerosols assessed from short-range weather forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. Kolusu

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The direct radiative impacts of biomass burning aerosols (BBA on meteorology are investigated using short-range forecasts from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM over South America during the South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA. The impacts are evaluated using a set of three simulations: (i no aerosols, (ii with monthly mean aerosol climatologies and (iii with prognostic aerosols modelled using the Coupled Large-scale Aerosol Simulator for Studies In Climate (CLASSIC scheme. Comparison with observations show that the prognostic CLASSIC scheme provides the best representation of BBA. The impacts of BBA are quantified over central and southern Amazonia from the first and second day of 2-day forecasts during 14 September–3 October 2012. On average, during the first day of the forecast, including prognostic BBA reduces the clear-sky net radiation at the surface by 15 ± 1 W m−2 and reduces net top-of-atmosphere (TOA radiation by 8 ± 1 W m−2, with a direct atmospheric warming of 7 ± 1 W m−2. BBA-induced reductions in all-sky radiation are smaller in magnitude: 9.0 ± 1 W m−2 at the surface and 4.0 ± 1 W m−2 at TOA. In this modelling study the BBA therefore exert an overall cooling influence on the Earth–atmosphere system, although some levels of the atmosphere are directly warmed by the absorption of solar radiation. Due to the reduction of net radiative flux at the surface, the mean 2 m air temperature is reduced by around 0.1 ± 0.02 °C. The BBA also cools the boundary layer (BL but warms air above by around 0.2 °C due to the absorption of shortwave radiation. The overall impact is to reduce the BL depth by around 19 ± 8 m. These differences in heating lead to a more anticyclonic circulation at 700 hPa, with winds changing by around 0.6 m s−1. Inclusion of climatological or prognostic BBA in the MetUM makes a small but significant improvement in forecasts of temperature and relative humidity, but improvements were

  18. Rapid Assessment of Small Changes to Major Gun and Projectile Dynamic Parameters

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Erline, Thomas

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Navy's 5-in 54-cal. (5"/54) gun system Mark (Mk) 45 was subjected to first-order dynamic analysis tools that allowed rapid assessment of ballistic dispersion of a typical naval high explosive projectile...

  19. Benthic data from rapid assessment transects, 2001-2004, in the Hawaiian Islands (NODC Accession 0002464)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset consists of CRAMP Rapid Assessment Transect surveys taken in 2001-2004 and includes quantitative estimates of substrate type and species. The types and...

  20. Hawaii Coral Reef Assessment and Monitoring Program (CRAMP): Benthic Data from Rapid Assessment Transects 2001-2004 (NODC Accession 0002464)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset consists of CRAMP Rapid Assessment Transect surveys taken in 2001-2004 and includes quantitative estimates of substrate type and species. The types and...

  1. Hawaii Coral Reef Assessment and Monitoring Program (CRAMP): Benthic Data from Rapid Assessment Transects Maui 2006 (NODC Accession 0039383)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset consists of CRAMP Rapid Assessment Transect surveys taken in 2006 and includes quantitative estimates of substrate type and species. In 2006, there were...

  2. Assimilation of Deformation Data for Eruption Forecasting: Potentiality Assessment Based on Synthetic Cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Grace Bato

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In monitoring active volcanoes, the magma overpressure is one of the key parameters used in forecasting volcanic eruptions. This parameter can be inferred from the ground displacements measured on the Earth's surface by applying inversion techniques. However, in most studies, the huge amount of information about the behavior of the volcano contained in the temporal evolution of the deformation signal is not fully exploited by inversion. Our work focuses on developing a strategy in order to better forecast the magma overpressure using data assimilation. We take advantage of the increasing amount of geodetic data [i.e., Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS] recorded on volcanoes nowadays together with the wide-range availability of dynamical models that can provide better understanding about the volcano plumbing system. Here, we particularly built our strategy on the basis of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF. We forecast the temporal behaviors of the magma overpressures and surface deformations by adopting a simple and generic two-magma chamber model and by using synthetic GNSS and/or InSAR data. We prove the ability of EnKF to both estimate the magma pressure evolution and constrain the characteristics of the deep volcanic system (i.e., reservoir size as well as basal magma inflow. High temporal frequency of observation is required to ensure the success of EnKF and the quality of assimilation is also improved by increasing the spatial density of observations in the near-field. We thus show that better results are obtained by combining a few GNSS temporal series of high temporal resolution with InSAR images characterized by a good spatial coverage. We also show that EnKF provides similar results to sophisticated Bayesian-based inversion while using the same dynamical model with the advantage of EnKF to potentially account for the temporal evolution of the uncertain model parameters. Our

  3. An assessment of oceanic variability in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xue, Yan; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Huang, Boyin; Wen, Caihong [Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wyle Information System, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Behringer, David; Nadiga, Sudhir [Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2011-12-15

    At the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a reanalysis of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land over the period 1979-2009, referred to as the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR), was recently completed. The oceanic component of CFSR includes many advances: (a) the MOM4 ocean model with an interactive sea-ice, (b) the 6 h coupled model forecast as the first guess, (c) inclusion of the mean climatological river runoff, and (d) high spatial (0.5 x 0.5 ) and temporal (hourly) model outputs. Since the CFSR will be used by many in initializing/validating ocean models and climate research, the primary motivation of the paper is to inform the user community about the saline features in the CFSR ocean component, and how the ocean reanalysis compares with in situ observations and previous reanalysis. The net ocean surface heat flux of the CFSR has smaller biases compared to the sum of the latent and sensible heat fluxes from the objectively analyzed air-sea fluxes (OAFlux) and the shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP-FD) than the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (R1) and NCEP/DOE reanalysis (R2) in both the tropics and extratropics. The ocean surface wind stress of the CFSR has smaller biases and higher correlation with the ERA40 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts than the R1 and R2, particularly in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean. The CFSR also has smaller errors compared to the QuickSCAT climatology for September 1999 to October 2009 than the R1 and R2. However, the trade winds of the CFSR in the central equatorial Pacific are too strong prior to 1999, and become close to observations once the ATOVS radiance data are assimilated in late 1998. A sudden reduction of easterly wind bias is related to the sudden onset of a warm bias in the eastern equatorial Pacific temperature around 1998/1999. The sea surface height and top 300 m heat content (HC300) of

  4. Rapid assessment of bilateral cochlear implantation for children in Kazakhstan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosherbayeva, Lyazzat; Hailey, David; Kozhageldiyeva, Laura

    2014-10-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of bilateral cochlear implantation (CI) compared with unilateral CI for deaf children in the context of the Republic of Kazakhstan health system. Methods. A literature search was conducted, using the PubMed, Cochrane, and Embase data bases for studies that compared the effectiveness of bilateral and unilateral CI in children. The search included English language, publications from 2002-2012. Two reviewers independently evaluated all relevant studies. Administrative data relevant to CI in Kazakhstan were obtained from the Ministry of Health. Three relevant systematic reviews and an health technology assessment report were found. There was evidence of incremental benefits from bilateral CI but the quality of the available studies was poor and there was little information on longer term outcomes. No conclusions could be drawn regarding later incremental improvements to speech perception, learning, and quality of life. To date, in the Republic of Kazakhstan there is not full coverage of audiological screening due to the lack of medical equipment. This leads to late detection of hearing-impaired children and a long rehabilitation period, requiring more resources. Age of implantation in children is late and only a small minority attend general schools. The clinical effectiveness of bilateral CI, an expensive health technology, requires further study. Given the current situation in Kazakhstan with audiological screening and access to unilateral CI, there appeared to be other priorities for improving services for children with profound hearing impairment.

  5. Ideal point error for model assessment in data-driven river flow forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. W. Dawson

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available When analysing the performance of hydrological models in river forecasting, researchers use a number of diverse statistics. Although some statistics appear to be used more regularly in such analyses than others, there is a distinct lack of consistency in evaluation, making studies undertaken by different authors or performed at different locations difficult to compare in a meaningful manner. Moreover, even within individual reported case studies, substantial contradictions are found to occur between one measure of performance and another. In this paper we examine the ideal point error (IPE metric – a recently introduced measure of model performance that integrates a number of recognised metrics in a logical way. Having a single, integrated measure of performance is appealing as it should permit more straightforward model inter-comparisons. However, this is reliant on a transferrable standardisation of the individual metrics that are combined to form the IPE. This paper examines one potential option for standardisation: the use of naive model benchmarking.

  6. Assessing Tolerance-Based Robust Short-Term Load Forecasting in Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Prieto

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting (STLF in buildings differs from its broader counterpart in that the load to be predicted does not seem to be stationary, seasonal and regular but, on the contrary, it may be subject to sudden changes and variations on its consumption behaviour. Classical STLF methods do not react fast enough to these perturbations (i.e., they are not robust and the literature on building STLF has not yet explored this area. Hereby, we evaluate a well-known post-processing method (Learning Window Reinitialization applied to two broadly-used STLF algorithms (Autoregressive Model and Support Vector Machines in buildings to check their adaptability and robustness. We have tested the proposed method with real-world data and our results state that this methodology is especially suited for buildings with non-regular consumption profiles, as classical STLF methods are enough to model regular-profiled ones.

  7. Using Ant Communities For Rapid Assessment Of Terrestrial Ecosystem Health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wike, L

    2005-06-01

    relative health of the ecosystem. The IBI, though originally for Midwestern streams, has been successfully adapted to other ecoregions and taxa (macroinvertebrates, Lombard and Goldstein, 2004) and has become an important tool for scientists and regulatory agencies alike in determining health of stream ecosystems. The IBI is a specific type of a larger group of methods and procedures referred to as Rapid Bioassessment (RBA). These protocols have the advantage of directly measuring the organisms affected by system perturbations, thus providing an integrated evaluation of system health because the organisms themselves integrate all aspects of their environment and its condition. In addition to the IBI, the RBA concept has also been applied to seep wetlands (Paller et al. 2005) and terrestrial systems (O'Connell et al. 1998, Kremen et al. 1993, Rodriguez et al. 1998, Rosenberg et al. 1986). Terrestrial RBA methods have lagged somewhat behind those for aquatic systems because terrestrial systems are less distinctly defined and seem to have a less universal distribution of an all-inclusive taxon, such as fish in the IBI, upon which to base an RBA. In the last decade, primarily in Australia, extensive development of an RBA using ant communities has shown great promise. Ants have the same advantage for terrestrial RBAs that fish do for aquatic systems in that they are an essential and ubiquitous component of virtually all terrestrial ecosystems. They occupy a broad range of niches, functional groups, and trophic levels and they possess one very important characteristic that makes them ideal for RBA because, similar to the fishes, there is a wide range of tolerance to conditions within the larger taxa. Within ant communities there are certain groups, genera, or species that may be very robust and abundant under even the harshest impacts. There are also taxa that are very sensitive to disturbance and change and their presence or absence is also indicative of the local

  8. Skill Assessment of An Hybrid Technique To Estimate Quantitative Precipitation Forecast For Galicia (nw Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lage, A.; Taboada, J. J.

    Precipitation is the most obvious of the weather elements in its effects on normal life. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is generally used to produce quantitative precip- itation forecast (QPF) beyond the 1-3 h time frame. These models often fail to predict small-scale variations of rain because of spin-up problems and their coarse spatial and temporal resolution (Antolik, 2000). Moreover, there are some uncertainties about the behaviour of the NWP models in extreme situations (de Bruijn and Brandsma, 2000). Hybrid techniques, combining the benefits of NWP and statistical approaches in a flexible way, are very useful to achieve a good QPF. In this work, a new technique of QPF for Galicia (NW of Spain) is presented. This region has a percentage of rainy days per year greater than 50% with quantities that may cause floods, with human and economical damages. The technique is composed of a NWP model (ARPS) and a statistical downscaling process based on an automated classification scheme of at- mospheric circulation patterns for the Iberian Peninsula (J. Ribalaygua and R. Boren, 1995). Results show that QPF for Galicia is improved using this hybrid technique. [1] Antolik, M.S. 2000 "An Overview of the National Weather Service's centralized statistical quantitative precipitation forecasts". Journal of Hydrology, 239, pp:306- 337. [2] de Bruijn, E.I.F and T. Brandsma "Rainfall prediction for a flooding event in Ireland caused by the remnants of Hurricane Charley". Journal of Hydrology, 239, pp:148-161. [3] Ribalaygua, J. and Boren R. "Clasificación de patrones espaciales de precipitación diaria sobre la España Peninsular". Informes N 3 y 4 del Servicio de Análisis e Investigación del Clima. Instituto Nacional de Meteorología. Madrid. 53 pp.

  9. Interim Results of a National Test of the Rapid Assessment of Hospital Procurement Barriers in Donation (RAPiD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Traino, H. M.; Alolod, G. P.; Shafer, T.; Siminoff, L. A.

    2012-01-01

    Organ donation remains a major public health challenge with over 114 000 people on the waitlist in the United States. Among other factors, extant research highlights the need to improve the identification and timely referral of potential donors by hospital health-care providers (HCPs) to organ procurement organizations (OPOs). We implemented a national test of the Rapid Assessment of hospital Procurement barriers in Donation (RAPiD) to identify assets and barriers to the organ donation and patient referral processes; assess hospital–OPO relationships and offer tailored recommendations for improving these processes. Having partnered with seven OPOs, data were collected at 70 hospitals with high donor potential in the form of direct observations and interviews with 2358 HCPs. We found that donation attitudes and knowledge among HCPs were high, but use of standard referral criteria was lacking. Significant differences were found in the donation-related attitudes, knowledge and behaviors of physicians and emergency department staff as compared to other staff in intensive care units with high organ donor potential. Also, while OPO staff were generally viewed positively, they were often perceived as outsiders rather than members of healthcare teams. Recommendations for improving the referral and donation processes are discussed. PMID:22900761

  10. Load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, H.

    1995-01-01

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  11. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and Objectives: With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ ph...

  12. Forecasting consequences of accidental release: how reliable are current assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rohwer, P.S.; Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    This paper focuses on uncertainties in model output used to assess accidents. We begin by reviewing the historical development of assessment models and the associated interest in uncertainties as these evolutionary processes occurred in the United States. This is followed by a description of the sources of uncertainties in assessment calculations. Types of models appropriate for assessment of accidents are identified. A summary of results from our analysis of uncertainty is provided in results obtained with current methodology for assessing routine and accidental radionuclide releases to the environment. We conclude with discussion of preferred procedures and suggested future directions to improve the state-of-the-art of radiological assessments

  13. Quantile forecast discrimination ability and value

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Pinson, Pierre; Friederichs, Petra

    2015-01-01

    While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables. New tools dedicated to the assessment of forecast discrimination ability and forecast value are ...... is illustrated based on synthetic datasets, as well as for the case of global radiation forecasts from the high resolution ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Weather Service....

  14. Development of in-vitro radiometric assay for the rapid assessment of chloroquine resistant plasmodium vivax

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Myint Oo; Myo Khin; Nwe Nwe Oo

    1997-01-01

    Previously, resistance of malaria parasite to chloroquine has been restricted only to Plasmodium falciparum. Recently, there have been many reports of chloroquine-resistant Plasmodium vivax. One of the mechanisms of chloroquine resistance is the decreased uptake of chloroquine or rapid efflux of the drug from the food vacuole of the parasite. In this study, we have measured the rapid efflux of IH-chloroquine in fifty blood samples from patients with P Vivax infection. All 50 patients were hospitalised for 28 days for the standard treatment with chloroquine. It was found that seven patients who did not respond to the standard regimen of chloroquine have parasites with rapid effluxes of IH-chloroquine. Since rapid effluxes of IH-chloroquine in the resistant parasites showed strong correlation with in vivo 28 days clinical trial, this assay could be used as rapid assessment of chloroquine resistance in patients with P vivax infection

  15. Development of in-vitro radiometric assay for the rapid assessment of chloroquine resistant plasmodium vivax

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oo, Myint; Khin, Myo; Oo, Nwe Nwe [Department of Medical Research, Yangon (Myanmar)

    1997-12-01

    Previously, resistance of malaria parasite to chloroquine has been restricted only to Plasmodium falciparum. Recently, there have been many reports of chloroquine-resistant Plasmodium vivax. One of the mechanisms of chloroquine resistance is the decreased uptake of chloroquine or rapid efflux of the drug from the food vacuole of the parasite. In this study, we have measured the rapid efflux of IH-chloroquine in fifty blood samples from patients with P Vivax infection. All 50 patients were hospitalised for 28 days for the standard treatment with chloroquine. It was found that seven patients who did not respond to the standard regimen of chloroquine have parasites with rapid effluxes of IH-chloroquine. Since rapid effluxes of IH-chloroquine in the resistant parasites showed strong correlation with in vivo 28 days clinical trial, this assay could be used as rapid assessment of chloroquine resistance in patients with P vivax infection.

  16. Low-wave number analysis of observations and ensemble forecasts to develop metrics for the selection of most realistic members to study multi-scale interactions between the environment and the convective organization of hurricanes: Focus on Rapid Intensification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Chen, H.; Gopalakrishnan, S.; Haddad, Z. S.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the product of complex multi-scale processes and interactions. The role of the environment has long been recognized. However, recent research has shown that convective-scale processes in the hurricane core might also play a crucial role in determining TCs intensity and size. Several studies have linked Rapid Intensification to the characteristics of the convective clouds (shallow versus deep), their organization (isolated versus wide-spread) and their location with respect to dynamical controls (the vertical shear, the radius of maximum wind). Yet a third set of controls signifies the interaction between the storm-scale and large-scale processes. Our goal is to use observations and models to advance the still-lacking understanding of these processes. Recently, hurricane models have improved significantly. However, deterministic forecasts have limitations due to the uncertainty in the representation of the physical processes and initial conditions. A crucial step forward is the use of high-resolution ensembles. We adopt the following approach: i) generate a high resolution ensemble forecast using HWRF; ii) produce synthetic data (e.g. brightness temperature) from the model fields for direct comparison to satellite observations; iii) develop metrics to allow us to sub-select the realistic members of the ensemble, based on objective measures of the similarity between observed and forecasted structures; iv) for these most-realistic members, determine the skill in forecasting TCs to provide"guidance on guidance"; v) use the members with the best predictive skill to untangle the complex multi-scale interactions. We will report on the first three goals of our research, using forecasts and observations of hurricane Edouard (2014), focusing on RI. We will focus on describing the metrics for the selection of the most appropriate ensemble members, based on applying low-wave number analysis (WNA - Hristova-Veleva et al., 2016) to the observed and

  17. Application of portable XRF and VNIR sensors for rapid assessment of soil heavy metal pollution

    OpenAIRE

    Hu, Bifeng; Chen, Songchao; Hu, Jie; Xia, Fang; Xu, Junfeng; Li, Yan; Shi, Zhou

    2017-01-01

    Rapid heavy metal soil surveys at large scale with high sampling density could not be conducted with traditional laboratory physical and chemical analyses because of the high cost, low efficiency and heavy workload involved. This study explored a rapid approach to assess heavy metals contamination in 301 farmland soils from Fuyang in Zhejiang Province, in the southern Yangtze River Delta, China, using portable proximal soil sensors. Portable X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy (PXRF) was used to ...

  18. MYOCARDIAL PERFUSION ASSESSMENT IN FORECASTING EFFECT OF CORONARY ANGIOPLASTY IN PATIENTS WITH ISCHEMIC CHRONIC HEART FAILURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. B. Mironkov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To define influence of the left ventricle (LV perfusion defects on the clinical status dynamics after coronary angioplasty in patients with the expressed myocardium dysfunction of ischemic etiology. Materials and methods. Examined 86 patients (81 men and 5 women aged from 46 to 73 years before and in 2–3 days after percutaneous coronary intervention with diagnosis: CAD, CHF with NYHA class III–IV, echocardiography parameters of LV: ejection fraction less than 40%, end-diastolic volume is more than 200 ml. Perfusion defects of myocardium estimated with use of ECG-gated single photon emission computed tomography. Predictors were defined: perfusion defects on LV apex (in score, perfusion defects in the area of LAD, LCx and RCA (%, the LV global perfusion defects (in score and %. Results. In 42% of cases 6-minute walk test increased to 3 times; The NYHA class decreased by 2 classes (group 1. In 28 cases 6-minute walk test increased to 2 times and the NYHA class decreased on 1 class. In 22 patients 6-minute walk test increased less than 50% of reference values and there was no dynamics NYHA class (50 patients of the group 2. Initial extent of LV global perfusion defects in group 1 – 41,2 ± 4,0%, in group 2 – 58,3 ± 2,4% (р = 0,0004. Similar values are received for perfusion indicators in the area of LAD and the LV apex. Prevalence of myocardial perfusion defects at rest reflects prevalence of a cardiosclerosis in a cardiac muscle. Conclusion. Degree of LV myocardial perfusion defects in patients with the expressed heart failure of ischemic etiology is the key indicator influencing clinical efficiency of coronary angioplasty. Critical size for definition of the favorable forecast of revascularization are 60% and more perfusion defects testifying that in a cardiac muscle the focal cardiosclerosis prevails over the functioning myocardium. 

  19. Atmospheric Motion Vectors from INSAT-3D: Initial quality assessment and its impact on track forecast of cyclonic storm NANAUK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deb, S. K.; Kishtawal, C. M.; Kumar, Prashant; Kiran Kumar, A. S.; Pal, P. K.; Kaushik, Nitesh; Sangar, Ghansham

    2016-03-01

    The advanced Indian meteorological geostationary satellite INSAT-3D was launched on 26 July 2013 with an improved imager and an infrared sounder and is placed at 82°E over the Indian Ocean region. With the advancement in retrieval techniques of different atmospheric parameters and with improved imager data have enhanced the scope for better understanding of the different tropical atmospheric processes over this region. The retrieval techniques and accuracy of one such parameter, Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMV) has improved significantly with the availability of improved spatial resolution data along with more options of spectral channels in the INSAT-3D imager. The present work is mainly focused on providing brief descriptions of INSAT-3D data and AMV derivation processes using these data. It also discussed the initial quality assessment of INSAT-3D AMVs for a period of six months starting from 01 February 2014 to 31 July 2014 with other independent observations: i) Meteosat-7 AMVs available over this region, ii) in-situ radiosonde wind measurements, iii) cloud tracked winds from Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) and iv) numerical model analysis. It is observed from this study that the qualities of newly derived INSAT-3D AMVs are comparable with existing two versions of Meteosat-7 AMVs over this region. To demonstrate its initial application, INSAT-3D AMVs are assimilated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and it is found that the assimilation of newly derived AMVs has helped in reduction of track forecast errors of the recent cyclonic storm NANAUK over the Arabian Sea. Though, the present study is limited to its application to one case study, however, it will provide some guidance to the operational agencies for implementation of this new AMV dataset for future applications in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) over the south Asia region.

  20. Ontario demand forecast from January 2004 to December 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This document examined the demand forecast for electricity on the Independent Market Operator (IMO)-controlled grid in Ontario for the period 2004-2013. It serves as an assessment tool to determine whether existing and proposed generation and transmission facilities in the province will be sufficient to meet future electricity needs. Changes in methodology have been made to allow for an hourly peak versus the previously reported 20-minute peak value. Actual data through to the end of October 2002 was used to re-estimate energy demand. Compared to other developed countries, the outlook for the Canadian economy is optimistic. In addition, the economic forecast is better than that which formed the basis of the last ten-year forecast. Energy demand in the median growth scenario is increasing at an annual rate of 1.1 per cent rather than 0.9 per cent for the forecasted period of 2003-2012. The combination of a higher growth rate and a higher starting point results in a 2010 forecast of 168 TWh. It is expected that peak demand will grow faster than in the previous forecast. Summer peak demand averaging an annual growth of 1.3 per cent is forecasted for the period 2003-2012, with winter peak demand averaging a growth of 0.8 per cent. Under normal weather conditions, the electricity system is expected to peak in the summer of 2005 due to the continued demand for cooling load. However, under an extreme weather scenario, the system is already summer peaking. The improved economic outlook and higher starting point resulted in a higher forecast for energy. The electricity system is expected to winter peak during the first years of the forecasted period. The heating load is not expected to experience rapid growth in the next few years. 15 tabs., 14 figs

  1. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  2. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  3. A Rapid Assessment Tool for affirming good practice in midwifery education programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fullerton, Judith T; Johnson, Peter; Lobe, Erika; Myint, Khine Haymar; Aung, Nan Nan; Moe, Thida; Linn, Nay Aung

    2016-03-01

    to design a criterion-referenced assessment tool that could be used globally in a rapid assessment of good practices and bottlenecks in midwifery education programs. a standard tool development process was followed, to generate standards and reference criteria; followed by external review and field testing to document psychometric properties. review of standards and scoring criteria were conducted by stakeholders around the globe. Field testing of the tool was conducted in Myanmar. eleven of Myanmar׳s 22 midwifery education programs participated in the assessment. the clinimetric tool was demonstrated to have content validity and high inter-rater reliability in use. a globally validated tool, and accompanying user guide and handbook are now available for conducting rapid assessments of compliance with good practice criteria in midwifery education programming. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  4. Class Size Reduction or Rapid Formative Assessment?: A Comparison of Cost-Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Stuart S.

    2009-01-01

    The cost-effectiveness of class size reduction (CSR) was compared with the cost-effectiveness of rapid formative assessment, a promising alternative for raising student achievement. Drawing upon existing meta-analyses of the effects of student-teacher ratio, evaluations of CSR in Tennessee, California, and Wisconsin, and RAND cost estimates, CSR…

  5. Development of flexural vibration inspection techniques to rapidly assess the structural health of rural bridge systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian K. Brashaw; Robert Vatalaro; Xiping Wang; Kevin Sarvela; James P. Wacker

    2008-01-01

    Approximately 4,000 vehicle bridges in the State of Minnesota contain structural timber members. Recent research at the University of Minnesota Duluth Natural Resources Research Institute (UMD NRRI) has been conducted on vibration testing of timber bridges as a means of developing rapid in-place testing techniques for assessing the structural health of bridges. The...

  6. Rapid psychological assessment of depression and its relationship with physical health among urban elderly

    OpenAIRE

    Pavithra Cheluvaraj; Mangesh Balu Nanaware; Surya Prakasa Rao

    2016-01-01

    Background Old age is associated with increased occurrence of a wide array of Psychological impairments or losses, which might contribute to physical disabilities. As Depression has been identified as the most common aberration its rapid assessment would be able to identify the quality of individual and family life of the elderly. Aims To assess psychological health status with respect to depression among geriatric urban community, and the relationship of depression with health perce...

  7. Assessing health systems for type 1 diabetes in sub-Saharan Africa: developing a 'Rapid Assessment Protocol for Insulin Access'

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beran, David; Yudkin, John S; de Courten, Maximilian

    2006-01-01

    In order to improve the health of people with Type 1 diabetes in developing countries, a clear analysis of the constraints to insulin access and diabetes care is needed. We developed a Rapid Assessment Protocol for Insulin Access, comprising a series of questionnaires as well as a protocol...... for the gathering of other data through site visits, discussions, and document reviews....

  8. Assessing Intelligent Models in Forecasting Monthly Rainfall by Means of Teleconnection Patterns (Case Study: Khorasan Razavi Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzaneh Nazarieh

    2016-02-01

    the models, eighty percent of the data belonged to six stations. Mashhad, Golmakan, Sabzevar, Kashmar, Torbate and Sarakhs were used. Verification of the model was carried out in two parts. The first part of verification was done with twenty percent of the remaining data which belonged to the mentioned six stations. The second part of verification was done with data from the Nishapur station. Nishapur geographically is located between other stations and did not participate in the calibration. So, it provides a ondition for assessing models in location except for the calibration stations. To assess and compare the accuracy of the models, the following statistical criteria have been used: correlation coefficient (R, normal root mean square error (NRMSE, mean bias error (MBE, Jacovides criteria (t, and ratio (R2/t. To evaluate models in different rainfall depths, rainfall data based on standard precipitation index (SPI was divided into seven classes, and the accuracy of each class was calculated separately. Results and Discussion: By comparing the models' ability to predict rainfall according to the R2 /t criteria it can be concluded that the ranking of the models is Neuro-fuzzy model, Fuzzy Inference Systems, and Neural network, respectively. R2 /to criteria for prediction of rainfall one, two, and three month earlier in the Neuro-fuzzy model are 0.91, 0.4, 0.36, in Fuzzy Inference Systems are 0.76, 0.38, 0.31 and in the neural network model are 0.43,0.27, 0.2. The statistical criteria of Neuro-fuzzy model (R, MBE, NRMSE, t, R2/ t for rainfall forecasting one month earlier are 0.8, -0.55,0.43, 0.7 , 0.91; two months earlier are 0.79, -1.32, 0.48, 1.56, 0.4; and three months earlier are 0.73,-1.37, 0.54, 1.47, 0.36 . Calculation of MBE criteria for Neuro-fuzzy models in all classes of SPI indicated that this model has a lower estimate in extremely wet and very wet classes. This is because of lack of data belonging to these classes for model training. Conclusion: The

  9. Assessment of epidemiological parameters and their use in epidemiological and forecasting models of cereal airborne diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vallavieille-Pope, C. de; Giosue, S.; Munk, L.

    2000-01-01

    Assessments of epidemiological parameters (e.g. infection efficiency, latent period, spore production) are required for the prediction of epidemic progress, for the estimation of components of partial resistance for different host plant cultivars and for the estimation of fitness components of pa...

  10. Rapid Fishery Assessment by Market Survey (RFAMS--an improved rapid-assessment approach to characterising fish landings in developing countries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William T White

    Full Text Available The complex multi-gear, multi-species tropical fisheries in developing countries are poorly understood and characterising the landings from these fisheries is often impossible using conventional approaches. A rapid assessment method for characterising landings at fish markets, using an index of abundance and estimated weight within taxonomic groups, is described. This approach was developed for contexts where there are no detailed data collection protocols, and where consistent data collection across a wide range of fisheries types and geographic areas is required, regardless of the size of the site and scale of the landings. This methodology, which was demonstrated at seven fish landing sites/fish markets in southern Indonesia between July 2008 and January 2011, provides a rapid assessment of the abundance and diversity in the wild catch over a wide variety of taxonomic groups. The approach has wider application for species-rich fisheries in developing countries where there is an urgent need for better data collection protocols, monitoring future changes in market demographics, and evaluating health of fisheries.

  11. The Method for Assessing and Forecasting Value of Knowledge in SMEs – Research Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justyna Patalas-Maliszewska

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Decisions by SMEs regarding knowledge development are made at a strategic level (Haas-Edersheim, 2007. Related to knowledge management are approaches to "measure" knowledge, where literature distinguishes between qualitative and quantitative methods of valuating intellectual capital. Although there is a quite range of such methods to build an intellectual capital reporting system, none of them is really widely recognized. This work presents a method enabling assessing the effectiveness of investing in human resources, taking into consideration existing methods. The method presented is focusing on SMEs (taking into consideration their importance for, especially, regional development. It consists of four parts: an SME reference model, an indicator matrix to assess investments into knowledge, innovation indicators, and the GMDH algorithm for decision making. The method presented is exemplified by a case study including 10 companies.

  12. Rapid assessment of health needs in mass emergencies: review of current concepts and methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guha-Sapir, D

    1991-01-01

    The increase in the number of natural disasters and their impact on population is of growing concern to countries at risk and agencies involved in health and humanitarian action. The numbers of persons killed or disabled as a result of earthquakes, cyclones, floods and famines have reached record levels in the last decade. Population density, rampant urbanization and climatic changes have brought about risk patterns that are exposing larger and larger sections of populations in developing countries to life-threatening natural disasters. Despite substantial spending on emergency relief, the approaches to relief remain largely ad hoc and amateurish, resulting generally in inappropriate and/or delayed action. In recent years, mass emergencies of the kind experienced in Bangladesh or the Sahelian countries have highlighted the importance of rapid assessment of health needs for better allocation of resources and relief management. As a result, the development of techniques for rapid assessment of health needs has been identified as a priority for effective emergency action. This article sketches the health context of disasters in terms of mortality and morbidity patterns; it describes initial assessment techniques currently used and their methodological biases and constraints; it also discusses assessment needs which vary between different types of disasters and the time frame within which assessments are undertaken. Earthquakes, cyclones, famines, epidemics or refugees all have specific risk profiles and emergency conditions which differ for each situation. Vulnerability to mortality changes according to age and occupation, for earthquakes and famines. These risk factors then have significant implications for the design of rapid assessment protocols and checklists. Experiences from the field in rapid survey techniques and estimation of death rates are discussed, with emphasis on the need for a reliable denominator even for the roughest assessment. Finally, the

  13. Assessing the spatial impact of climate on wheat productivity and the potential value of climate forecasts at a regional level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Enli; Xu, J.; Jiang, Q.; Austin, J.

    2009-03-01

    Quantification of the spatial impact of climate on crop productivity and the potential value of seasonal climate forecasts can effectively assist the strategic planning of crop layout and help to understand to what extent climate risk can be managed through responsive management strategies at a regional level. A simulation study was carried out to assess the climate impact on the performance of a dryland wheat-fallow system and the potential value of seasonal climate forecasts in nitrogen management in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) of Australia. Daily climate data (1889-2002) from 57 stations were used with the agricultural systems simulator (APSIM) to simulate wheat productivity and nitrogen requirement as affected by climate. On a good soil, simulated grain yield ranged from 7 t/ha in the east border regions. Optimal nitrogen rates ranged from 200 kgN/ha/yr. Simulated gross margin was in the range of -20/ha to 700/ha, increasing eastwards. Wheat yield was closely related to rainfall in the growing season and the stored soil moisture at sowing time. The impact of stored soil moisture increased from southwest to northeast. Simulated annual deep drainage ranged from zero in western inland to >200 mm in the east. Nitrogen management, optimised based on ‘perfect’ knowledge of daily weather in the coming season, could add value of 26˜79/ha compared to management optimised based on historical climate, with the maximum occurring in central to western part of MDB. It would also reduce the nitrogen application by 5˜25 kgN/ha in the main cropping areas. Comparison of simulation results with the current land use mapping in MDB revealed that the western boundary of the current cropping zone approximated the isolines of 160 mm of growing season rainfall, 2.5t/ha of wheat grain yield, and 150/ha of gross margin in QLD and NSW. In VIC and SA, the 160-mm isohyets corresponded relatively lower simulated yield due to less stored soil water. Impacts of other factors like soil

  14. Rapid Analysis of Eukaryotic Bioluminescence to Assess Potential Groundwater Contamination Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zacariah L. Hildenbrand

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Here we present data using a bioluminescent dinoflagellate, Pyrocystis lunula, in a toxicological bioassay to rapidly assess potential instances of groundwater contamination associated with natural gas extraction. P. lunula bioluminescence can be quantified using spectrophotometry as a measurement of organismal viability, with normal bioluminescent output declining with increasing concentration(s of aqueous toxicants. Glutaraldehyde and hydrochloric acid (HCl, components used in hydraulic fracturing and shale acidization, triggered significant toxicological responses in as little as 4 h. Conversely, P. lunula was not affected by the presence of arsenic, selenium, barium, and strontium, naturally occurring heavy metal ions potentially associated with unconventional drilling activities. If exogenous compounds, such as glutaraldehyde and HCl, are thought to have been introduced into groundwater, quantification of P. lunula bioluminescence after exposure to water samples can serve as a cost-effective detection and risk assessment tool to rapidly assess the impact of putative contamination events attributed to unconventional drilling activity.

  15. International wind power development. The 2012 supply chain assessment. Forecast 2012-2015

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2011-11-15

    The entire wind power supply chain is under pressure. Fierce competition among turbine OEMs (Original Equipment Manufactures), particularly in China, has decreased turbine prices to the extent that turbine OEMs and sub-suppliers are no longer realizing a profit. This is the first time in Chinese wind power history that many sub-suppliers have had to reduce their production capacity; even a large component supplier recently went bankrupt. The wind industry has entered a stage where strategic decision making is needed. How can the suppliers of components and materials survive this new reality? What are the latest supply chain management strategies of the world's top 10 turbine OEMs as a response to slumping demand? This 200+ page supply chain assessment, with the updated status of supply chain activities as of November 2011, addresses these questions. The report assesses more than 300 suppliers of eight key components (blades, gearboxes, electric generators, bearings, power converters, transformers, towers, pitch systems and balance of plant - offshore) and more than 200 suppliers of five groups of key materials (castings, forgings, reinforcement fibers, resins and rare earth materials). (LN)

  16. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  17. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 25 Appendix X - Forecast Sea Ice Age.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  18. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 23 Appendix V - Forecast Sea Ice Thickness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-04-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  19. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 27 Appendix Z - Forecast Ridging Rate.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  20. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 17 Appendix P - Forecast Soil Moisture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-04-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  1. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 15 Appendix N - Forecast Surface Runoff.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  2. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  3. The multi temporal/multi-model approach to predictive uncertainty assessment in real-time flood forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbetta, Silvia; Coccia, Gabriele; Moramarco, Tommaso; Brocca, Luca; Todini, Ezio

    2017-08-01

    This work extends the multi-temporal approach of the Model Conditional Processor (MCP-MT) to the multi-model case and to the four Truncated Normal Distributions (TNDs) approach, demonstrating the improvement on the single-temporal one. The study is framed in the context of probabilistic Bayesian decision-making that is appropriate to take rational decisions on uncertain future outcomes. As opposed to the direct use of deterministic forecasts, the probabilistic forecast identifies a predictive probability density function that represents a fundamental knowledge on future occurrences. The added value of MCP-MT is the identification of the probability that a critical situation will happen within the forecast lead-time and when, more likely, it will occur. MCP-MT is thoroughly tested for both single-model and multi-model configurations at a gauged site on the Tiber River, central Italy. The stages forecasted by two operative deterministic models, STAFOM-RCM and MISDc, are considered for the study. The dataset used for the analysis consists of hourly data from 34 flood events selected on a time series of six years. MCP-MT improves over the original models' forecasts: the peak overestimation and the rising limb delayed forecast, characterizing MISDc and STAFOM-RCM respectively, are significantly mitigated, with a reduced mean error on peak stage from 45 to 5 cm and an increased coefficient of persistence from 0.53 up to 0.75. The results show that MCP-MT outperforms the single-temporal approach and is potentially useful for supporting decision-making because the exceedance probability of hydrometric thresholds within a forecast horizon and the most probable flooding time can be estimated.

  4. Environmental impact assessment of bus rapid transit (BRT in the Metropolitan City of Tehran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Salehi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Bus rapid transit is an innovative, high capacity, lower cost public transit solution in metropolitan cities. Idea is to dedicate lanes for quick and efficient transport of passengers to their destinations. In the present investigation the environmental impact assessment of bus rapid transit  in Tehran metropolitan city is brought out. For this purpose bus rapid transit Lane No. 10 is investigated. The bus rapid transit Lane No.10 is about 10 km in distance that moves up and down between Azadi and Simon Bolivar Squares. About 77500 passengers using 50 buses are transited per day in lane No. 10. These 50 buses cover a distance of 9600 km/day. The results of present study showed that about 6.5 million liters of fuel is saved annually. It should be pointed out that environmental costs are also reduced for about US$ 1.7 million/yr. The overall score of environmental impact assessment stands at +10 that is indicative of Lane No. 10 compatibility with the environmental considerations.

  5. Long-term forecast 2010; Laangsiktsprognos 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2011-07-01

    This report presents the energy forecast to the year 2030, and two different sensitivity scenarios. The forecast is based on existing instruments, which means that the report's findings should not be considered a proper forecast of the future energy use, but as an impact assessment of existing policy instruments, given different circumstances such as economic growth and fuel prices

  6. Assessing the Performance of MODIS NDVI and EVI for Seasonal Crop Yield Forecasting at the Ecodistrict Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis Kouadio

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Crop yield forecasting plays a vital role in coping with the challenges of the impacts of climate change on agriculture. Improvements in the timeliness and accuracy of yield forecasting by incorporating near real-time remote sensing data and the use of sophisticated statistical methods can improve our capacity to respond effectively to these challenges. The objectives of this study were (i to investigate the use of derived vegetation indices for the yield forecasting of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. from the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS at the ecodistrict scale across Western Canada with the Integrated Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (ICCYF; and (ii to compare the ICCYF-model based forecasts and their accuracy across two spatial scales-the ecodistrict and Census Agricultural Region (CAR, namely in CAR with previously reported ICCYF weak performance. Ecodistricts are areas with distinct climate, soil, landscape and ecological aspects, whereas CARs are census-based/statistically-delineated areas. Agroclimate variables combined respectively with MODIS-NDVI and MODIS-EVI indices were used as inputs for the in-season yield forecasting of spring wheat during the 2000–2010 period. Regression models were built based on a procedure of a leave-one-year-out. The results showed that both agroclimate + MODIS-NDVI and agroclimate + MODIS-EVI performed equally well predicting spring wheat yield at the ECD scale. The mean absolute error percentages (MAPE of the models selected from both the two data sets ranged from 2% to 33% over the study period. The model efficiency index (MEI varied between −1.1 and 0.99 and −1.8 and 0.99, respectively for the agroclimate + MODIS-NDVI and agroclimate + MODIS-EVI data sets. Moreover, significant improvement in forecasting skill (with decreasing MAPE of 40% and 5 times increasing MEI, on average was obtained at the finer, ecodistrict spatial scale, compared to the coarser CAR scale. Forecast

  7. Uncertainties in Forecasting Streamflow using Entropy Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, H.; Singh, V. P.

    2017-12-01

    Streamflow forecasting is essential in river restoration, reservoir operation, power generation, irrigation, navigation, and water management. However, there is always uncertainties accompanied in forecast, which may affect the forecasting results and lead to large variations. Therefore, uncertainties must be considered and be assessed properly when forecasting streamflow for water management. The aim of our work is to quantify the uncertainties involved in forecasting streamflow and provide reliable streamflow forecast. Despite that streamflow time series are stochastic, they exhibit seasonal and periodic patterns. Therefore, streamflow forecasting entails modeling seasonality, periodicity, and its correlation structure, and assessing uncertainties. This study applies entropy theory to forecast streamflow and measure uncertainties during the forecasting process. To apply entropy theory for streamflow forecasting, spectral analysis is combined to time series analysis, as spectral analysis can be employed to characterize patterns of streamflow variation and identify the periodicity of streamflow. That is, it permits to extract significant information for understanding the streamflow process and prediction thereof. Application of entropy theory for streamflow forecasting involves determination of spectral density, determination of parameters, and extension of autocorrelation function. The uncertainties brought by precipitation input, forecasting model and forecasted results are measured separately using entropy. With information theory, how these uncertainties transported and aggregated during these processes will be described.

  8. Assessment applicability of selected models of multiple discriminant analyses to forecast financial situation of Polish wood sector enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adamowicz Krzysztof

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In the last three decades forecasting bankruptcy of enterprises has been an important and difficult problem, used as an impulse for many research projects (Ribeiro et al. 2012. At present many methods of bankruptcy prediction are available. In view of the specific character of economic activity in individual sectors, specialised methods adapted to a given branch of industry are being used increasingly often. For this reason an important scientific problem is related with the indication of an appropriate model or group of models to prepare forecasts for a given branch of industry. Thus research has been conducted to select an appropriate model of Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA, best adapted to forecasting changes in the wood industry. This study analyses 10 prediction models popular in Poland. Effectiveness of the model proposed by Jagiełło, developed for all industrial enterprises, may be labelled accidental. That model is not adapted to predict financial changes in wood sector companies in Poland.

  9. Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang

    2012-01-01

    Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts of cons....... It is recommended that more attention is given to monitoring completed projects so future forecasts can benefit from better data availability through systematic ex-post evaluations, and an example of how to utilize such data in practice is presented.......Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts...... of construction costs, which account for the majority of total project costs. Second are the forecasts of travel time savings, which account for the majority of total project benefits. The latter of these is, inter alia, determined by forecasts of travel demand, which we shall use as a proxy for the forecasting...

  10. A web-based rapid assessment tool for production publishing solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Tong

    2010-02-01

    Solution assessment is a critical first-step in understanding and measuring the business process efficiency enabled by an integrated solution package. However, assessing the effectiveness of any solution is usually a very expensive and timeconsuming task which involves lots of domain knowledge, collecting and understanding the specific customer operational context, defining validation scenarios and estimating the expected performance and operational cost. This paper presents an intelligent web-based tool that can rapidly assess any given solution package for production publishing workflows via a simulation engine and create a report for various estimated performance metrics (e.g. throughput, turnaround time, resource utilization) and operational cost. By integrating the digital publishing workflow ontology and an activity based costing model with a Petri-net based workflow simulation engine, this web-based tool allows users to quickly evaluate any potential digital publishing solutions side-by-side within their desired operational contexts, and provides a low-cost and rapid assessment for organizations before committing any purchase. This tool also benefits the solution providers to shorten the sales cycles, establishing a trustworthy customer relationship and supplement the professional assessment services with a proven quantitative simulation and estimation technology.

  11. Rapid humanitarian assessments and rationality: a value-of-information study from Iraq, 2003-04.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benini, Aldo; Conley, Charles

    2007-03-01

    Rapid assessments are one of the standard informational tools in humanitarian response and are supposed to contribute to rational decision-making.(1) The extent to which the assessment organisation itself behaves rationally, however, is an open question. This can be evaluated against multiple criteria, such as the cost and value of the information it collects and its ability to adapt flexibly design or samples when the survey environment changes unforeseeably. An unusual data constellation from two concurrent recent (2003-04) rapid assessments in northern Iraq permits us to model part of the actual assessment behaviour in terms of geographical, community and prior substantive information attributes. The model correctly predicts the decisions, in 79 per cent of the 2,425 local communities in focus, that data collector teams in the Emergency Mine Action Survey made to visit or not to visit. The analysis demonstrates variably rational behaviour under conditions of insecurity, repeated regrouping and incomplete sampling frames. A pronounced bias towards very small rural settlements is irrational for the overall results, but may be a rational strategy of individual survey workers seeking to prolong their employment. Implications for future assessments are sketched in the areas of tools for urban surveys, greater adaptability, including early feedback from users, and sensibility to value-of-information concepts.

  12. Assessment of summer rainfall forecast skill in the Intra-Americas in GFDL high and low-resolution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamurthy, Lakshmi; Muñoz, Ángel G.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Msadek, Rym; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Stern, Bill; Gudgel, Rich; Zeng, Fanrong

    2018-05-01

    The Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ) is an important component of the atmospheric circulation over the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) which impacts the weather and climate both locally and remotely. It influences the rainfall variability in the Caribbean, Central America, northern South America, the tropical Pacific and the continental Unites States through the transport of moisture. We make use of high-resolution coupled and uncoupled models from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to investigate the simulation of the CLLJ and its teleconnections and further compare with low-resolution models. The high-resolution coupled model FLOR shows improvements in the simulation of the CLLJ and its teleconnections with rainfall and SST over the IAS compared to the low-resolution coupled model CM2.1. The CLLJ is better represented in uncoupled models (AM2.1 and AM2.5) forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), emphasizing the role of SSTs in the simulation of the CLLJ. Further, we determine the forecast skill for observed rainfall using both high- and low-resolution predictions of rainfall and SSTs for the July-August-September season. We determine the role of statistical correction of model biases, coupling and horizontal resolution on the forecast skill. Statistical correction dramatically improves area-averaged forecast skill. But the analysis of spatial distribution in skill indicates that the improvement in skill after statistical correction is region dependent. Forecast skill is sensitive to coupling in parts of the Caribbean, Central and northern South America, and it is mostly insensitive over North America. Comparison of forecast skill between high and low-resolution coupled models does not show any dramatic difference. However, uncoupled models show improvement in the area-averaged skill in the high-resolution atmospheric model compared to lower resolution model. Understanding and improving the forecast skill over the IAS has important implications

  13. An approach for evaluating the repeatability of rapid wetland assessment methods: The effects of training and experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    We sampled 92 wetlands from four different basins in the United States to quantify observer repeatability in rapid wetland condition assessment using the Delaware Rapid Assessment Protocol (DERAP). In the Inland Bays basin of Delaware, 58 wetland sites were sampled by multiple ob...

  14. A Rapid Assessment of Instructional Strategies to Teach Auditory-Visual Conditional Discriminations to Children with Autism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodak, Tiffany; Clements, Andrea; LeBlanc, Brittany

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the present investigation was to evaluate a rapid assessment procedure to identify effective instructional strategies to teach auditory-visual conditional discriminations to children diagnosed with autism. We replicated and extended previous rapid skills assessments (Lerman, Vorndran, Addison, & Kuhn, 2004) by evaluating the effects…

  15. RAPID-N: Assessing and mapping the risk of natural-hazard impact at industrial installations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

    2015-04-01

    Natural hazard-triggered technological accidents (so-called Natech accidents) at hazardous installations can have major consequences due to the potential for release of hazardous materials, fires and explosions. Effective Natech risk reduction requires the identification of areas where this risk is high. However, recent studies have shown that there are hardly any methodologies and tools that would allow authorities to identify these areas. To work towards closing this gap, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre has developed the rapid Natech risk assessment and mapping framework RAPID-N. The tool, which is implemented in an online web-based environment, is unique in that it contains all functionalities required for running a full Natech risk analysis simulation (natural hazards severity estimation, equipment damage probability and severity calculation, modeling of the consequences of loss of containment scenarios) and for visualizing its results. The output of RAPID-N are risk summary reports and interactive risk maps which can be used for decision making. Currently, the tool focuses on Natech risk due to earthquakes at industrial installations. However, it will be extended to also analyse and map Natech risk due to floods in the near future. RAPID-N is available at http://rapidn.jrc.ec.europa.eu. This presentation will discuss the results of case-study calculations performed for selected flammable and toxic substances to test the capabilities of RAPID-N both for single- and multi-site earthquake Natech risk assessment. For this purpose, an Istanbul earthquake scenario provided by the Turkish government was used. The results of the exercise show that RAPID-N is a valuable decision-support tool that assesses the Natech risk and maps the consequence end-point distances. These end-point distances are currently defined by 7 kPa overpressure for Vapour Cloud Explosions, 2nd degree burns for pool fire (which is equivalent to a heat radiation of 5 kW/m2 for 40s

  16. Using inferred probabilities to measure the accuracy of imprecise forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Lehner

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Research on forecasting is effectively limited to forecasts that are expressed with clarity; which is to say that the forecasted event must be sufficiently well-defined so that it can be clearly resolved whether or not the event occurred and forecasts certainties are expressed as quantitative probabilities. When forecasts are expressed with clarity, then quantitative measures (scoring rules, calibration, discrimination, etc. can be used to measure forecast accuracy, which in turn can be used to measure the comparative accuracy of different forecasting methods. Unfortunately most real world forecasts are not expressed clearly. This lack of clarity extends to both the description of the forecast event and to the use of vague language to express forecast certainty. It is thus difficult to assess the accuracy of most real world forecasts, and consequently the accuracy the methods used to generate real world forecasts. This paper addresses this deficiency by presenting an approach to measuring the accuracy of imprecise real world forecasts using the same quantitative metrics routinely used to measure the accuracy of well-defined forecasts. To demonstrate applicability, the Inferred Probability Method is applied to measure the accuracy of forecasts in fourteen documents examining complex political domains. Key words: inferred probability, imputed probability, judgment-based forecasting, forecast accuracy, imprecise forecasts, political forecasting, verbal probability, probability calibration.

  17. The Key Role of Eyewitnesses in Rapid Impact Assessment of Global Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Steed, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.; Etivant, C.; Frobert, L.; Godey, S.

    2014-12-01

    Uncertainties in rapid impact assessments of global earthquakes are intrinsically large because they rely on 3 main elements (ground motion prediction models, building stock inventory and related vulnerability) which values and/or spatial variations are poorly constrained. Furthermore, variations of hypocentral location and magnitude within their respective uncertainty domain can lead to significantly different shaking level for centers of population and change the scope of the disaster. We present the strategy and methods implemented at the Euro-Med Seismological Centre (EMSC) to rapidly collect in-situ observations on earthquake effects from eyewitnesses for reducing uncertainties of rapid earthquake impact assessment. It comprises crowdsourced information (online questionnaires, pics) as well as information derived from real time analysis of web traffic (flashourcing technique), and more recently deployment of QCN (Quake Catcher Network) low cost sensors. We underline the importance of merging results of different methods to improve performances and reliability of collected data.We try to better understand and respond to public demands and expectations after earthquakes through improved information services and diversification of information tools (social networks, smartphone app., browsers adds-on…), which, in turn, drive more eyewitnesses to our services and improve data collection. We will notably present our LastQuake Twitter feed (Quakebot) and smartphone applications (IOs and android) which only report earthquakes that matter for the public and authorities, i.e. felt and damaging earthquakes identified thanks to citizen generated information.

  18. Rapid Assessment of the Toxicity of Fungal Compounds Using Luminescent Vibrio qinghaiensis sp. Q67

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qijie Jian

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Most tropical fruits after harvest are very perishable because of fungal infection. Since some pathogenic fungi can produce hazardous compounds such as mycotoxins, novel rapid and effective methods to assess those hazardous compounds are urgently needed. Herein we report that Vibrio qinghaiensis sp. Q67, a luminescent bacterium, can be used to rapidly assess the toxicities of mycotoxins and cultures from mycotoxin-producing pathogens. A good correlation (R2 > 0.98 between concentrations of the mycotoxins (fumonisin B1, deoxynivalenol, zearalenone, ochratoxin A, patulin, and citrinin and the luminous intensity of V. qinghaiensis sp. Q67 was obtained. Furthermore, significant correlations (R2 > 0.96 between the amount of mycotoxin and the luminous intensity from the cultures of 10 major mycotoxin-producing pathogens were also observed. In addition, Fusarium proliferatum (half-maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50 = 17.49% exhibited greater luminescence suppression than Fusarium semitectum (IC50 = 92.56% or Fusarium oxysporum (IC50 = 28.61%, which was in agreement with the existing higher levels of fumonisin B1, fumonisin B2, and deoxynivalenol, which were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. These results suggest that V. qinghaiensis sp. Q67 is a promising alternative for the rapid evaluation of the toxicity of fungal mycotoxins.

  19. Application of portable XRF and VNIR sensors for rapid assessment of soil heavy metal pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Bifeng; Chen, Songchao; Hu, Jie; Xia, Fang; Xu, Junfeng; Li, Yan; Shi, Zhou

    2017-01-01

    Rapid heavy metal soil surveys at large scale with high sampling density could not be conducted with traditional laboratory physical and chemical analyses because of the high cost, low efficiency and heavy workload involved. This study explored a rapid approach to assess heavy metals contamination in 301 farmland soils from Fuyang in Zhejiang Province, in the southern Yangtze River Delta, China, using portable proximal soil sensors. Portable X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy (PXRF) was used to determine soil heavy metals total concentrations while soil pH was predicted by portable visible-near infrared spectroscopy (PVNIR). Zn, Cu and Pb were successfully predicted by PXRF (R2 >0.90 and RPD >2.50) while As and Ni were predicted with less accuracy (R2 heavy metals contamination grades in farmland soils was conducted based on previous results; the Kappa coefficient was 0.87, which showed that the combination of PXRF and PVNIR was an effective and rapid method to determine the degree of pollution with soil heavy metals. This study provides a new approach to assess soil heavy metals pollution; this method will facilitate large-scale surveys of soil heavy metal pollution.

  20. Application of portable XRF and VNIR sensors for rapid assessment of soil heavy metal pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Bifeng; Chen, Songchao; Hu, Jie; Xia, Fang; Xu, Junfeng; Li, Yan; Shi, Zhou

    2017-01-01

    Rapid heavy metal soil surveys at large scale with high sampling density could not be conducted with traditional laboratory physical and chemical analyses because of the high cost, low efficiency and heavy workload involved. This study explored a rapid approach to assess heavy metals contamination in 301 farmland soils from Fuyang in Zhejiang Province, in the southern Yangtze River Delta, China, using portable proximal soil sensors. Portable X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy (PXRF) was used to determine soil heavy metals total concentrations while soil pH was predicted by portable visible-near infrared spectroscopy (PVNIR). Zn, Cu and Pb were successfully predicted by PXRF (R2 >0.90 and RPD >2.50) while As and Ni were predicted with less accuracy (R2 heavy metals contamination grades in farmland soils was conducted based on previous results; the Kappa coefficient was 0.87, which showed that the combination of PXRF and PVNIR was an effective and rapid method to determine the degree of pollution with soil heavy metals. This study provides a new approach to assess soil heavy metals pollution; this method will facilitate large-scale surveys of soil heavy metal pollution. PMID:28234944

  1. Rapid assessment of household needs in the Houston area after Tropical Storm Allison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waring, Stephen C; Reynolds, Kaye M; D'Souza, Gypsyamber; Arafat, Raouf R

    2002-09-01

    Tropical Storm Allison, which hit landfall near Galveston, Texas, on June 5, 2001, caused the most severe flood-related damage ever recorded in the Houston metropolitan area. The main goal of the public health response to tropical storm Allison was to evaluate the immediate health needs of the community. To estimate damage and household needs, we conducted a rapid needs assessment in the areas most affected by flooding with use of a modified cluster sampling method facilitated by Geographical Information Systems methodology. A total of 420 households participated in the survey, 210 each from the 2 sampling areas. We found a 4-fold increase in illness among persons living in flooded homes compared with those living in nonflooded homes. These findings suggest a need for rapid resolution of flood-related damage and the possibility that residents should seek temporary housing during clean-up and repair. In addition, we obtained reliable estimates of damage and household needs to help guide relief efforts. The findings underscore the usefulness of a rapid-needs assessment as a tool to identify actual health threats and to facilitate delivery of resources to those with the greatest and most immediate need.

  2. On Long Memory Origins and Forecast Horizons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vera-Valdés, J. Eduardo

    Most long memory forecasting studies assume that the memory is generated by the fractional difference operator. We argue that the most cited theoretical arguments for the presence of long memory do not imply the fractional difference operator, and assess the performance of the autoregressive...... fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model when forecasting series with long memory generated by nonfractional processes. We find that high-order autoregressive (AR) models produce similar or superior forecast performance than ARFIMA models at short horizons. Nonetheless, as the forecast horizon...... increases, the ARFIMA models tend to dominate in forecast performance. Hence, ARFIMA models are well suited for forecasts of long memory processes regardless of the long memory generating mechanism, particularly for medium and long forecast horizons. Additionally, we analyse the forecasting performance...

  3. Forecasting resource-allocation decisions under climate uncertainty: fire suppression with assessment of net benefits of research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Geoffrey H. Donovan

    2008-01-01

    Making input decisions under climate uncertainty often involves two-stage methods that use expensive and opaque transfer functions. This article describes an alternative, single-stage approach to such decisions using forecasting methods. The example shown is for preseason fire suppression resource contracting decisions faced by the United States Forest Service. Two-...

  4. Multi-Annual Climate Predictions for Fisheries: An Assessment of Skill of Sea Surface Temperature Forecasts for Large Marine Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desiree Tommasi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Decisions made by fishers and fisheries managers are informed by climate and fisheries observations that now often span more than 50 years. Multi-annual climate forecasts could further inform such decisions if they were skillful in predicting future conditions relative to the 50-year scope of past variability. We demonstrate that an existing multi-annual prediction system skillfully forecasts the probability of next year, the next 1–3 years, and the next 1–10 years being warmer or cooler than the 50-year average at the surface in coastal ecosystems. Probabilistic forecasts of upper and lower seas surface temperature (SST terciles over the next 3 or 10 years from the GFDL CM 2.1 10-member ensemble global prediction system showed significant improvements in skill over the use of a 50-year climatology for most Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs in the North Atlantic, the western Pacific, and Indian oceans. Through a comparison of the forecast skill of initialized and uninitialized hindcasts, we demonstrate that this skill is largely due to the predictable signature of radiative forcing changes over the 50-year timescale rather than prediction of evolving modes of climate variability. North Atlantic LMEs stood out as the only coastal regions where initialization significantly contributed to SST prediction skill at the 1 to 10 year scale.

  5. Error Assessment of Solar Irradiance Forecasts and AC Power from Energy Conversion Model in Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianfranco Chicco

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Availability of effective estimation of the power profiles of photovoltaic systems is essential for studying how to increase the share of intermittent renewable sources in the electricity mix of many countries. For this purpose, weather forecasts, together with historical data of the meteorological quantities, provide fundamental information. The weak point of the forecasts depends on variable sky conditions, when the clouds successively cover and uncover the solar disc. This causes remarkable positive and negative variations in the irradiance pattern measured at the photovoltaic (PV site location. This paper starts from 1 to 3 days-ahead solar irradiance forecasts available during one year, with a few points for each day. These forecasts are interpolated to obtain more irradiance estimations per day. The estimated irradiance data are used to classify the sky conditions into clear, variable or cloudy. The results are compared with the outcomes of the same classification carried out with the irradiance measured in meteorological stations at two real PV sites. The occurrence of irradiance spikes in “broken cloud” conditions is identified and discussed. From the measured irradiance, the Alternating Current (AC power injected into the grid at two PV sites is estimated by using a PV energy conversion model. The AC power errors resulting from the PV model with respect to on-site AC power measurements are shown and discussed.

  6. Assessing Seasonal Climate Forecasts over Africa to Support Decision-Making : Bridging Science and Policy Implication for Managing Climate Extremes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wanders, Niko|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364253940; Wood, Eric F.

    2018-01-01

    Recent drought events like in the 2011 Horn of Africa and the ongoing drought in California have an enormous impact on nature and society. Reliable seasonal weather outlooks are critical for drought management and other applications like, crop modelling, flood forecasting and planning of reservoir

  7. Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2016-01-01

    The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged fundamenta......The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged...... fundamentally. In this competitive and dynamic environment, many decision-making processes rely on probabilistic forecasts to quantify the uncertain future. Although most of the papers in the energy forecasting literature focus on point or singlevalued forecasts, the research interest in probabilistic energy...

  8. Problems in developing an instrument for the rapid assessment of personality status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Horn, E; Manley, C; Leddy, D; Cicchetti, D; Tyrer, P

    2000-06-01

    To assess the validity of a quick assessment instrument (10 minutes) for assessing personality status, the Rapid Personality Assessment Schedule (PAS-R). The PAS-R was evaluated in psychotic patients recruited in one of the centres involved in a multicentre randomised controlled trial of intensive vs standard case management (the UK700 case management trial). Patients were assessed using both a full version of the PAS (PAS-I - ICD version) and the PAS-R. The weighted kappa statistic was used to gauge the (criterion-related) validity of the PAS-R using the PAS-I as the gold standard. Both measure code personality status using a four-point rating of severity in addition to recording individual categories of personality disorder. One hundred fifty-five (77%) of 201 patients recruited were assessed with both instruments. The weighted kappa statistic was 0.31, suggesting only moderate agreement between the PAS-I and PAS-R instruments under the four-point rating format, and 0.39 for the dichotomous personality disorder/no disorder separation. The sensitivity (64%) and specificity (82%) of the PAS-R in predicting PAS-I personality disorder were as satisfactory as for other screening instruments but still somewhat disappointing, and the PAS-R had an overall diagnostic accuracy of 78%. The PAS-R is a quick and rough method of detecting personality abnormality but is not a substitute for a fuller assessment.

  9. Rapid assessment of tinnitus-related psychological distress using the Mini-TQ.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiller, Wolfgang; Goebel, Gerhard

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop an abridged version of the Tinnitus Questionnaire (TQ) to be used as a quick tool for the assessment of tinnitus-related psychological distress. Data from 351 inpatients and 122 outpatients with chronic tinnitus were used to analyse item statistics and psychometric properties. Twelve items with an optimal combination of high item-total correlations, reliability and sensitivity in assessing changes were selected for the Mini-TQ. Correlation with the full TQ was >0.90, and test-retest reliability was 0.89. Validity was confirmed by associations with general psychological symptom patterns. Treatment effects indicated by the Mini-TQ were slightly greater than those indicated by the full TQ. The Mini-TQ is recommended as a psychometrically approved and solid tool for rapid and economical assessment of subjective tinnitus distress.

  10. Evaluation of work posture and quantification of fatigue by Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizkya, I.; Syahputri, K.; Sari, R. M.; Anizar; Siregar, I.

    2018-02-01

    Work related musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs), poor body postures, and low back injuries are the most common problems occurring in many industries including small-medium industries. This study presents assessment and evaluation of ergonomic postures of material handling worker. That evaluation was carried out using REBA (Rapid Entire Body Assessment). REBA is a technique to quantize the fatigue experienced by the worker while manually lifting loads. Fatigue due to abnormal work posture leads to complaints of labor-perceived pain. REBA methods were used to an assessment of working postures for the existing process by a procedural analysis of body postures involved. This study shows that parts of the body have a high risk of work are the back, neck, and upper arms with REBA score 9, so action should be taken as soon as possible. Controlling actions were implemented to those process with high risk then substantial risk reduction was achieved.

  11. Adapting a rapid assessment protocol to environmentally assess palm swamp (Veredas) springs in the Cerrado biome, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guimarães, Ariane; de Lima Rodrigues, Aline Sueli; Malafaia, Guilherme

    2017-10-30

    The exploitation and degradation of natural environments exert intense pressure on important ecosystems worldwide. Thus, it is necessary developing or adapting assessment methods to monitor environmental changes and to generate results to be applied to environmental management programs. The Brazilian Veredas (phytophysiognomies typical to the Cerrado biome) are threatened by several human activities; thus, the aim of the present study is to adapt a rapid assessment protocol (RAP) to be applied to Veredas springs, by using the upper course of the Vai-e-Vem stream watershed (Ipameri County, Goiás State, Brazil). Therefore, several springs in the study site were visited and 11 of them were considered Veredas springs. After the RAP was adapted, the instrument was validated and used to environmentally assess the springs in order to demonstrate its applicability. The present study has provided an instrument of option to monitor Veredas springs.

  12. Adaptation level as the basic health status characteristics: possibilitics of its assessment and forecasting of desadaptation violations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vysochyna I.L.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of comprehensive survey with integrative assessment of health state (medical history data, physical examination, anthropometry, battery of psychological tests (Eysenck, Shmishek’s Personality Inventory (teen version, tapping - test by E.P. Ilyin, children's questionnaire of neuroses; test for rapid assessment of health, activity and mood, anxiety diagnosis by Spielberg - Khanin; Luscher test, color relations test level of adaptation was defined in 236 children from orphanages aged from 4 to 18 years. The manifestations of maladjustment were registered both on psychological level (neuroticism, high anxiety, decreased performance, activity and psychological endurance, sleep disturbance, presence of accentuation and neurotic disorders and somatic level (recurrent acute respiratory infections, poor physical development, exacerbation of chronic foci of infection and burdened biological history; this summarizes conclusions on a low level of health status of children in orphanages. The author has developed mathematical models of adaptation assessment and prediction of desadaptation, which allowed to identify children at risk for the development of adaptation disorders and children with maladjustment; according to the level and severity of maladaptive disorders correction programs are designed.

  13. Photographic assessment of nasal morphology following rapid maxillary expansion in children

    Science.gov (United States)

    da SILVA FILHO, Omar Gabriel; LARA, Tulio Silva; AYUB, Priscila Vaz; OHASHI, Amanda Sayuri Cardoso; BERTOZ, Francisco Antônio

    2011-01-01

    Objective The aim of the present study was to use facial analysis to determine the effects of rapid maxillary expansion (RME) on nasal morphology in children in the stages of primary and mixed dentition, with posterior cross-bite. Material and Methods Facial photographs (front view and profile) of 60 patients in the pre-expansion period, immediate post-expansion period and one year following rapid maxillary expansion with a Haas appliance were evaluated on 2 occasions by 3 experienced orthodontists independently, with a 2-week interval between evaluations. The examiners were instructed to assess nasal morphology and had no knowledge regarding the content of the study. Intraexaminer and interexaminer agreement (assessed using the Kappa statistic) was acceptable. Results From the analysis of the mode of the examiners' findings, no alterations in nasal morphology occurred regarding the following aspects: dorsum of nose, alar base, nasal width of middle third and nasal base. Alterations were only detected in the nasolabial angle in 1.64% of the patients between the pre-expansion and immediate post-expansion photographs. In 4.92% of the patients between the immediate post-expansion period and 1 year following expansion; and in 6.56% of the patients between the pre-expansion period and one year following expansion. Conclusion RME performed on children in stages of primary and mixed dentition did not have any impact on nasal morphology, as assessed using facial analysis. PMID:21986660

  14. Amniotic fluid volume: Rapid MR-based assessment at 28-32 weeks gestation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hilliard, N.J.; Hawkes, R.; Patterson, A.J.; Graves, M.J.; Priest, A.N.; Hunter, S.; Set, P.A.; Lomas, D.J. [Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Department of Radiology, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Lees, C. [Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, Department of Obstetrics and Fetal Medicine, London (United Kingdom)

    2016-10-15

    This work evaluates rapid magnetic resonance projection hydrography (PH) based amniotic fluid volume (AFV) estimates against established routine ultrasound single deepest vertical pocket (SDVP) and amniotic fluid index (AFI) measurements, in utero at 28-32 weeks gestation. Manual multi-section planimetry (MSP) based measurement of AFV is used as a proxy reference standard. Thirty-five women with a healthy singleton pregnancy (20-41 years) attending routine antenatal ultrasound were recruited. SDVP and AFI were measured using ultrasound, with same day MRI assessing AFV with PH and MSP. The relationships between the respective techniques were assessed using linear regression analysis and Bland-Altman method comparison statistics. When comparing estimated AFV, a highly significant relationship was observed between PH and the reference standard MSP (R{sup 2} = 0.802, p < 0.001). For the US measurements, SDVP measurement related most closely to amniotic fluid volume, (R{sup 2} = 0.470, p < 0.001), with AFI demonstrating a weaker relationship (R{sup 2} = 0.208, p = 0.007). This study shows that rapid MRI based PH measurement is a better predictor of AFV, relating more closely to our proxy standard than established US techniques. Although larger validation studies across a range of gestational ages are required this approach could form part of MR fetal assessment, particularly where poly- or oligohydramnios is suspected. (orig.)

  15. Understanding of research, genetics and genetic research in a rapid ethical assessment in north west Cameroon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kengne-Ouafo, Jonas A; Millard, James D; Nji, Theobald M; Tantoh, William F; Nyoh, Doris N; Tendongfor, Nicholas; Enyong, Peter A; Newport, Melanie J; Davey, Gail; Wanji, Samuel

    2016-05-01

    There is limited assessment of whether research participants in low-income settings are afforded a full understanding of the meaning of medical research. There may also be particular issues with the understanding of genetic research. We used a rapid ethical assessment methodology to explore perceptions surrounding the meaning of research, genetics and genetic research in north west Cameroon. Eleven focus group discussions (including 107 adults) and 72 in-depth interviews were conducted with various stakeholders in two health districts in north west Cameroon between February and April 2012. Most participants appreciated the role of research in generating knowledge and identified a difference between research and healthcare but gave varied explanations as to this difference. Most participants' understanding of genetics was limited to concepts of hereditary, with potential benefits limited to the level of the individual or family. Explanations based on supernatural beliefs were identified as a special issue but participants tended not to identify any other special risks with genetic research. We demonstrated a variable level of understanding of research, genetics and genetic research, with implications for those carrying out genetic research in this and other low resource settings. Our study highlights the utility of rapid ethical assessment prior to complex or sensitive research. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  16. Amniotic fluid volume: Rapid MR-based assessment at 28-32 weeks gestation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hilliard, N.J.; Hawkes, R.; Patterson, A.J.; Graves, M.J.; Priest, A.N.; Hunter, S.; Set, P.A.; Lomas, D.J.; Lees, C.

    2016-01-01

    This work evaluates rapid magnetic resonance projection hydrography (PH) based amniotic fluid volume (AFV) estimates against established routine ultrasound single deepest vertical pocket (SDVP) and amniotic fluid index (AFI) measurements, in utero at 28-32 weeks gestation. Manual multi-section planimetry (MSP) based measurement of AFV is used as a proxy reference standard. Thirty-five women with a healthy singleton pregnancy (20-41 years) attending routine antenatal ultrasound were recruited. SDVP and AFI were measured using ultrasound, with same day MRI assessing AFV with PH and MSP. The relationships between the respective techniques were assessed using linear regression analysis and Bland-Altman method comparison statistics. When comparing estimated AFV, a highly significant relationship was observed between PH and the reference standard MSP (R"2 = 0.802, p < 0.001). For the US measurements, SDVP measurement related most closely to amniotic fluid volume, (R"2 = 0.470, p < 0.001), with AFI demonstrating a weaker relationship (R"2 = 0.208, p = 0.007). This study shows that rapid MRI based PH measurement is a better predictor of AFV, relating more closely to our proxy standard than established US techniques. Although larger validation studies across a range of gestational ages are required this approach could form part of MR fetal assessment, particularly where poly- or oligohydramnios is suspected. (orig.)

  17. Rapid Assessment of Ecosystem Service Co-Benefits of Biodiversity Priority Areas in Madagascar.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel A Neugarten

    Full Text Available The importance of ecosystems for supporting human well-being is increasingly recognized by both the conservation and development sectors. Our ability to conserve ecosystems that people rely on is often limited by a lack of spatially explicit data on the location and distribution of ecosystem services (ES, the benefits provided by nature to people. Thus there is a need to map ES to guide conservation investments, to ensure these co-benefits are maintained. To target conservation investments most effectively, ES assessments must be rigorous enough to support conservation planning, rapid enough to respond to decision-making timelines, and often must rely on existing data. We developed a framework for rapid spatial assessment of ES that relies on expert and stakeholder consultation, available data, and spatial analyses in order to rapidly identify sites providing multiple benefits. We applied the framework in Madagascar, a country with globally significant biodiversity and a high level of human dependence on ecosystems. Our objective was to identify the ES co-benefits of biodiversity priority areas in order to guide the investment strategy of a global conservation fund. We assessed key provisioning (fisheries, hunting and non-timber forest products, and water for domestic use, agriculture, and hydropower, regulating (climate mitigation, flood risk reduction and coastal protection, and cultural (nature tourism ES. We also conducted multi-criteria analyses to identify sites providing multiple benefits. While our approach has limitations, including the reliance on proximity-based indicators for several ES, the results were useful for targeting conservation investments by the Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund (CEPF. Because our approach relies on available data, standardized methods for linking ES provision to ES use, and expert validation, it has the potential to quickly guide conservation planning and investment decisions in other data-poor regions.

  18. Rapid Assessment of Ecosystem Service Co-Benefits of Biodiversity Priority Areas in Madagascar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andriamaro, Luciano; Cano, Carlos Andres; Grantham, Hedley S.; Hole, David; Juhn, Daniel; McKinnon, Madeleine; Rasolohery, Andriambolantsoa; Steininger, Marc; Wright, Timothy Max

    2016-01-01

    The importance of ecosystems for supporting human well-being is increasingly recognized by both the conservation and development sectors. Our ability to conserve ecosystems that people rely on is often limited by a lack of spatially explicit data on the location and distribution of ecosystem services (ES), the benefits provided by nature to people. Thus there is a need to map ES to guide conservation investments, to ensure these co-benefits are maintained. To target conservation investments most effectively, ES assessments must be rigorous enough to support conservation planning, rapid enough to respond to decision-making timelines, and often must rely on existing data. We developed a framework for rapid spatial assessment of ES that relies on expert and stakeholder consultation, available data, and spatial analyses in order to rapidly identify sites providing multiple benefits. We applied the framework in Madagascar, a country with globally significant biodiversity and a high level of human dependence on ecosystems. Our objective was to identify the ES co-benefits of biodiversity priority areas in order to guide the investment strategy of a global conservation fund. We assessed key provisioning (fisheries, hunting and non-timber forest products, and water for domestic use, agriculture, and hydropower), regulating (climate mitigation, flood risk reduction and coastal protection), and cultural (nature tourism) ES. We also conducted multi-criteria analyses to identify sites providing multiple benefits. While our approach has limitations, including the reliance on proximity-based indicators for several ES, the results were useful for targeting conservation investments by the Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund (CEPF). Because our approach relies on available data, standardized methods for linking ES provision to ES use, and expert validation, it has the potential to quickly guide conservation planning and investment decisions in other data-poor regions. PMID:28006005

  19. A rapid murine coma and behavior scale for quantitative assessment of murine cerebral malaria.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan W Carroll

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cerebral malaria (CM is a neurological syndrome that includes coma and seizures following malaria parasite infection. The pathophysiology is not fully understood and cannot be accounted for by infection alone: patients still succumb to CM, even if the underlying parasite infection has resolved. To that effect, there is no known adjuvant therapy for CM. Current murine CM (MCM models do not allow for rapid clinical identification of affected animals following infection. An animal model that more closely mimics the clinical features of human CM would be helpful in elucidating potential mechanisms of disease pathogenesis and evaluating new adjuvant therapies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A quantitative, rapid murine coma and behavior scale (RMCBS comprised of 10 parameters was developed to assess MCM manifested in C57BL/6 mice infected with Plasmodium berghei ANKA (PbA. Using this method a single mouse can be completely assessed within 3 minutes. The RMCBS enables the operator to follow the evolution of the clinical syndrome, validated here by correlations with intracerebral hemorrhages. It provides a tool by which subjects can be identified as symptomatic prior to the initiation of trial treatment. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Since the RMCBS enables an operator to rapidly follow the course of disease, label a subject as affected or not, and correlate the level of illness with neuropathologic injury, it can ultimately be used to guide the initiation of treatment after the onset of cerebral disease (thus emulating the situation in the field. The RMCBS is a tool by which an adjuvant therapy can be objectively assessed.

  20. Assessing health systems for type 1 diabetes in sub-Saharan Africa: developing a 'Rapid Assessment Protocol for Insulin Access'

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Courten Maximilian

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In order to improve the health of people with Type 1 diabetes in developing countries, a clear analysis of the constraints to insulin access and diabetes care is needed. We developed a Rapid Assessment Protocol for Insulin Access, comprising a series of questionnaires as well as a protocol for the gathering of other data through site visits, discussions, and document reviews. Methods The Rapid Assessment Protocol for Insulin Access draws on the principles of Rapid Assessment Protocols which have been developed and implemented in several different areas. This protocol was adapted through a thorough literature review on diabetes, chronic condition management and medicine supply in developing countries. A visit to three countries in sub-Saharan Africa and meetings with different experts in the field of diabetes helped refine the questionnaires. Following the development of the questionnaires these were tested with various people familiar with diabetes and/or healthcare in developing countries. The Protocol was piloted in Mozambique then refined and had two further iterations in Zambia and Mali. Translations of questionnaires were made into local languages when necessary, with back translation to ensure precision. Results In each country the protocol was implemented in 3 areas – the capital city, a large urban centre and a predominantly rural area and their respective surroundings. Interviews were carried out by local teams trained on how to use the tool. Data was then collected and entered into a database for analysis. Conclusion The Rapid Assessment Protocol for Insulin Access was developed to provide a situational analysis of Type 1 diabetes, in order to make recommendations to the national Ministries of Health and Diabetes Associations. It provided valuable information on patients' access to insulin, syringes, monitoring and care. It was thus able to sketch a picture of the health care system with regards to its ability to

  1. Photograph-based ergonomic evaluations using the Rapid Office Strain Assessment (ROSA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebregts, J; Sonne, M; Potvin, J R

    2016-01-01

    The Rapid Office Strain Assessment (ROSA) was developed to assess musculoskeletal disorder (MSD) risk factors for computer workstations. This study examined the validity and reliability of remotely conducted, photo-based assessments using ROSA. Twenty-three office workstations were assessed on-site by an ergonomist, and 5 photos were obtained. Photo-based assessments were conducted by three ergonomists. The sensitivity and specificity of the photo-based assessors' ability to correctly classify workstations was 79% and 55%, respectively. The moderate specificity associated with false positive errors committed by the assessors could lead to unnecessary costs to the employer. Error between on-site and photo-based final scores was a considerable ∼2 points on the 10-point ROSA scale (RMSE = 2.3), with a moderate relationship (ρ = 0.33). Interrater reliability ranged from fairly good to excellent (ICC = 0.667-0.856) and was comparable to previous results. Sources of error include the parallax effect, poor estimations of small joint (e.g. hand/wrist) angles, and boundary errors in postural binning. While this method demonstrated potential validity, further improvements should be made with respect to photo-collection and other protocols for remotely-based ROSA assessments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  2. Registry Assessment of Peripheral Interventional Devices (RAPID) - Registry Assessment of Peripheral Interventional Devices Core Data Elements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, W Schuyler; Krucoff, Mitchell W; Morales, Pablo; Wilgus, Rebecca W; Heath, Anne H; Williams, Mary F; Tcheng, James E; Marinac-Dabic, J Danica; Malone, Misti L; Reed, Terrie L; Fukaya, Rie; Lookstein, Robert; Handa, Nobuhiro; Aronow, Herbert D; Bertges, Daniel J; Jaff, Michael R; Tsai, Thomas T; Smale, Joshua A; Zaugg, Margo J; Thatcher, Robert J; Cronenwett, Jack L; Nc, Durham; Md, Silver Spring; Japan, Tokyo; Ny, New York; Ri, Providence; Vt, Burlington; Mass, Newton; Colo, Denver; Ariz, Tempe; Calif, Santa Clara; Minn, Minneapolis; Nh, Lebanon

    2018-01-25

    The current state of evaluating patients with peripheral artery disease and more specifically of evaluating medical devices used for peripheral vascular intervention (PVI) remains challenging because of the heterogeneity of the disease process, the multiple physician specialties that perform PVI, the multitude of devices available to treat peripheral artery disease, and the lack of consensus about the best treatment approaches. Because PVI core data elements are not standardized across clinical care, clinical trials, and registries, aggregation of data across different data sources and physician specialties is currently not feasible.Methods and Results:Under the auspices of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Medical Device Epidemiology Network initiative-and its PASSION (Predictable and Sustainable Implementation of the National Registries) program, in conjunction with other efforts to align clinical data standards-the Registry Assessment of Peripheral Interventional Devices (RAPID) workgroup was convened. RAPID is a collaborative, multidisciplinary effort to develop a consensus lexicon and to promote interoperability across clinical care, clinical trials, and national and international registries of PVI. The current manuscript presents the initial work from RAPID to standardize clinical data elements and definitions, to establish a framework within electronic health records and health information technology procedural reporting systems, and to implement an informatics-based approach to promote the conduct of pragmatic clinical trials and registry efforts in PVI. Ultimately, we hope this work will facilitate and improve device evaluation and surveillance for patients, clinicians, health outcomes researchers, industry, policymakers, and regulators.

  3. Ranking of small scale proposals for water system repair using the Rapid Impact Assessment Matrix (RIAM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shakib-Manesh, T.E.; Hirvonen, K.O.; Jalava, K.J.; Ålander, T.; Kuitunen, M.T., E-mail: markku.kuitunen@jyu.fi

    2014-11-15

    Environmental impacts of small scale projects are often assessed poorly, or not assessed at all. This paper examines the usability of the Rapid Impact Assessment Matrix (RIAM) as a tool to prioritize project proposals for small scale water restoration projects in relation to proposals' potential to improve the environment. The RIAM scoring system was used to assess and rank the proposals based on their environmental impacts, the costs of the projects to repair the harmful impacts, and the size of human population living around the sites. A four-member assessment group (The expert panel) gave the RIAM-scores to the proposals. The assumed impacts of the studied projects at the Eastern Finland water systems were divided into the ecological and social impacts. The more detailed assessment categories of the ecological impacts in this study were impacts on landscape, natural state, and limnology. The social impact categories were impacts to recreational use of the area, fishing, industry, population, and economy. These impacts were scored according to their geographical and social significance, their magnitude of change, their character, permanence, reversibility, and cumulativeness. The RIAM method proved to be an appropriate and recommendable method for the small-scale assessment and prioritizing of project proposals. If the assessments are well documented, the RIAM can be a method for easy assessing and comparison of the various kinds of projects. In the studied project proposals there were no big surprises in the results: the best ranks were received by the projects, which were assumed to return watersheds toward their original state.

  4. Ranking of small scale proposals for water system repair using the Rapid Impact Assessment Matrix (RIAM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shakib-Manesh, T.E.; Hirvonen, K.O.; Jalava, K.J.; Ålander, T.; Kuitunen, M.T.

    2014-01-01

    Environmental impacts of small scale projects are often assessed poorly, or not assessed at all. This paper examines the usability of the Rapid Impact Assessment Matrix (RIAM) as a tool to prioritize project proposals for small scale water restoration projects in relation to proposals' potential to improve the environment. The RIAM scoring system was used to assess and rank the proposals based on their environmental impacts, the costs of the projects to repair the harmful impacts, and the size of human population living around the sites. A four-member assessment group (The expert panel) gave the RIAM-scores to the proposals. The assumed impacts of the studied projects at the Eastern Finland water systems were divided into the ecological and social impacts. The more detailed assessment categories of the ecological impacts in this study were impacts on landscape, natural state, and limnology. The social impact categories were impacts to recreational use of the area, fishing, industry, population, and economy. These impacts were scored according to their geographical and social significance, their magnitude of change, their character, permanence, reversibility, and cumulativeness. The RIAM method proved to be an appropriate and recommendable method for the small-scale assessment and prioritizing of project proposals. If the assessments are well documented, the RIAM can be a method for easy assessing and comparison of the various kinds of projects. In the studied project proposals there were no big surprises in the results: the best ranks were received by the projects, which were assumed to return watersheds toward their original state

  5. The AviaDem forecasting model: illustration of a forecasting case at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldhuis, J.; Lieshout, R.

    2010-01-01

    The paper describes an aviation market forecasting model which focuses on market forecasts for airports. Most forecasting models in use today assess aviation trends resulting from macroeconomic trends. The model described in this paper has this feature built in, but the added value of this model is

  6. Local scale air pollution forecasting by artificial intelligence techniques and assess the pollution-related social effects

    OpenAIRE

    Gong, Bing; Ordieres-Meré, Joaquín

    2016-01-01

    Since the air pollution can cause serious health problem, the concerns about forecasting air pollution timely and accurately arise by researchers in order to alert the public avoiding high level pollution and help the government make decisions. In our research, we take Hong Kong (finished research) and the cities in Mexico (finishing) and Mainland China (starting), especially the high pollutant areas such as Mexico City and Beijing, as study cases. Meanwhile, various types of arti...

  7. Assessment applicability of selected models of multiple discriminant analyses to forecast financial situation of Polish wood sector enterprises

    OpenAIRE

    Adamowicz Krzysztof; Noga Tomasz

    2017-01-01

    In the last three decades forecasting bankruptcy of enterprises has been an important and difficult problem, used as an impulse for many research projects (Ribeiro et al. 2012). At present many methods of bankruptcy prediction are available. In view of the specific character of economic activity in individual sectors, specialised methods adapted to a given branch of industry are being used increasingly often. For this reason an important scientific problem is related with the indication of an...

  8. Rapid Inventory Collection System (RICS) and the 2009 Victorian Bushfires impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Habili, N; Corby, N; Cechet, R P, E-mail: nariman.habili@ga.gov.a [Risk and Impact Analysis Group, Geoscience Australia G.PO Box 378, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory (Australia)

    2010-08-15

    The Rapid Inventory Collection System (RICS) is a vehicular data collection system (image and GPS) used for building/infrastructure damage and inventory assessment. The system consists of Ethernet cameras attached to a tripod mounted on a motor vehicle, a GPS receiver and software written in C++. RICS was deployed following the 2009 Victorian Bushfires and the collected data was used by the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission for the impact assessment (field survey) which quantified the extent and severity of the damage caused to residential buildings by the fire-storm. The regions of Kilmore East, Murrindindi, Churchill, Maiden Gully - Bendigo and Bunyip had nearly 5400 residential structures within the fire perimeter. Analysis utilising both aerial and vehicular (RICS) imagery indicates that just over 2100 homes were destroyed and an additional 800 received minor damage.

  9. Face and Convergent Validity of Persian Version of Rapid Office Strain Assessment (ROSA Checklist

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afrouz Armal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this work was the translation, cultural adaptation and validation of the Persian version of the Rapid Office Stress Assessment (ROSA checklist. Material & Methods: This methodological study was conducted according of IQOLA method. 100 office worker were selected in order to carry out a psychometric evaluation of the ROSA checklist by performing validity (face and convergent analyses. The convergent validity was evaluated using RULA checklist. Results: Upon major changes made to the ROSA checklist during the translation/cultural adaptation process, face validity of the Persian version was obtained. Spearman correlation coefficient between total score of ROSA check list and RULA checklist was significant (r=0.76, p<0.0001. Conclusion: The results indicated that the translated version of the ROSA checklist is acceptable in terms of face validity, convergent validity in target society, and hence provides a useful instrument for assessing Iranian office workers

  10. Development of a qPCR method to rapidly assess the function of NKT cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohn, Silke; Tiper, Irina; Japp, Emily; Sun, Wenji; Tkaczuk, Katherine; Webb, Tonya J

    2014-05-01

    NKT cells comprise a rare, but important subset of T cells which account for ~0.2% of the total circulating T cell population. NKT cells are known to have anti-tumor functions and rapidly produce high levels of cytokines following activation. Several clinical trials have sought to exploit the effector functions of NKT cells. While some studies have shown promise, NKT cells are approximately 50% lower in cancer patients compared to healthy donors of the same age and gender, thus limiting their therapeutic efficacy. These studies indicate that baseline levels of activation should be assessed before initiating an NKT cell based immunotherapeutic strategy. The goal of this study was to develop a sensitive method to rapidly assess NKT cell function. We utilized artificial antigen presenting cells in combination with qPCR in order to determine NKT cell function in peripheral blood mononuclear cells from healthy donors and breast cancer patients. We found that NKT cell activation can be detected by qPCR, but not by ELISA, in healthy donors as well as in breast cancer patients following four hour stimulation. This method utilizing CD1d-expressing aAPCs will enhance our knowledge of NKT cell biology and could potentially be used as a novel tool in adoptive immunotherapeutic strategies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Use of refractometry and colorimetry as field methods to rapidly assess antimalarial drug quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Michael D; Nettey, Henry; Villalva Rojas, Ofelia; Pamanivong, Chansapha; Khounsaknalath, Lamphet; Grande Ortiz, Miguel; Newton, Paul N; Fernández, Facundo M; Vongsack, Latsamy; Manolin, Ot

    2007-01-04

    The proliferation of counterfeit and poor-quality drugs is a major public health problem; especially in developing countries lacking adequate resources to effectively monitor their prevalence. Simple and affordable field methods provide a practical means of rapidly monitoring drug quality in circumstances where more advanced techniques are not available. Therefore, we have evaluated refractometry, colorimetry and a technique combining both processes as simple and accurate field assays to rapidly test the quality of the commonly available antimalarial drugs; artesunate, chloroquine, quinine, and sulfadoxine. Method bias, sensitivity, specificity and accuracy relative to high-performance liquid chromatographic (HPLC) analysis of drugs collected in the Lao PDR were assessed for each technique. The HPLC method for each drug was evaluated in terms of assay variability and accuracy. The accuracy of the combined method ranged from 0.96 to 1.00 for artesunate tablets, chloroquine injectables, quinine capsules, and sulfadoxine tablets while the accuracy was 0.78 for enterically coated chloroquine tablets. These techniques provide a generally accurate, yet simple and affordable means to assess drug quality in resource-poor settings.

  12. Rapid assessment of rice seed availability for wildlife in harvested fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halstead, B.J.; Miller, M.R.; Casazza, Michael L.; Coates, P.S.; Farinha, M.A.; Benjamin, Gustafson K.; Yee, J.L.; Fleskes, J.P.

    2011-01-01

    Rice seed remaining in commercial fields after harvest (waste rice) is a critical food resource for wintering waterfowl in rice-growing regions of North America. Accurate and precise estimates of the seed mass density of waste rice are essential for planning waterfowl wintering habitat extents and management. In the Sacramento Valley of California, USA, the existing method for obtaining estimates of availability of waste rice in harvested fields produces relatively precise estimates, but the labor-, time-, and machineryintensive process is not practical for routine assessments needed to examine long-term trends in waste rice availability. We tested several experimental methods designed to rapidly derive estimates that would not be burdened with disadvantages of the existing method. We first conducted a simulation study of the efficiency of each method and then conducted field tests. For each approach, methods did not vary in root mean squared error, although some methods did exhibit bias for both simulations and field tests. Methods also varied substantially in the time to conduct each sample and in the number of samples required to detect a standard trend. Overall, modified line-intercept methods performed well for estimating the density of rice seeds. Waste rice in the straw, although not measured directly, can be accounted for by a positive relationship with density of rice on the ground. Rapid assessment of food availability is a useful tool to help waterfowl managers establish and implement wetland restoration and agricultural habitat-enhancement goals for wintering waterfowl. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

  13. A rapid assessment and response approach for socially marketed nutrition commodities in Viet Nam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turk, Tahir; Quang, Nguyen Dinh; Nga, Tran Thuy; Phuong, Huynh; Tung, Le Van Anh; Trang, Vu Hoang

    2017-01-01

    The leading cause of death in children in developing countries is protein-energy malnutrition. In Viet Nam, 25.9% of children under 5 experience stunted growth and 6.6% are moderately wasted. Iron deficiency anaemia and vitamin A deficiency contribute to these and other malnutrition conditions. Given these factors, more evidence based approaches are required to improve understanding of current attitudes, opinions and behaviours of mothers with young children, in order to operationalise social marketing of nutrition commodities in Viet Nam. A literature review supported a rapid assessment and response method involving semi-structured interviews with 77 stakeholders and focus group discussions with 80 program beneficiaries from four geographic locations in the north and south of Viet Nam. Discussion agendas were developed to address key program issues with grounded theory utilized for data analysis. Data analysis highlighted challenges and opportunities within the six Ps of social marketing: Supply and demand side issues included: cost and the quality of products, the limited scale of interventions and promotional activities. Policy issues identified related to current policies that inhibited the broader promotion and distribution of micronutrient products, and opportunities for improved dialogue with policy partners. Partnerships further emphasized the need for public private partnerships to support the social change process. Implications for theory, policy, and practice indicates that rapid assessment and response is a cost-effective, pragmatic method of public health research, in resource constrained settings, to explore policies and behaviours amenable to change and build stakeholder engagement in the program.

  14. Infrastructure Improvements for Snowmelt Runoff Forecasting and Assessments of Climate Change Impacts on Water Supplies in the Rio Grande Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rango, A.; Steele, C. M.; Demouche, L.

    2009-12-01

    In the Southwest US, the southern Rocky Mountains provide a significant orographic barrier to prevailing moisture-laden Westerly winds, which results in snow accumulation and melt, both vitally important to the region’s water resources. The inherent variability of meteorological conditions in the Southwest, during both snowpack buildup and depletion, requires improved spatially-distributed data. The population of ground-based networks (SNOTEL, SCAN, and weather stations) is sparse and does not satisfactorily represent the variability of snow accumulation and melt. Remote sensing can be used to supplement data from ground networks, but the most frequently available remotely sensed product with the highest temporal and spatial resolution, namely snow cover, only provides areal data and not snow volume. Fortunately, the Snowmelt Runoff Model(SRM), which was developed in mountainous regions of the world, including the Rio Grande basin, accepts snow covered area as one of its major input variables along with temperature and precipitation. With the growing awareness of atmospheric warming and the southerly location of Southwest watersheds, it has become apparent that the effects of climate change will be especially important for Southwestern water users. The NSF-funded EPSCoR project “Climate Change Impacts on New Mexico’s Mountain Sources of Water” (started in 2009) has focused on improving hydrometeorological measurements, developing basin-wide and sub-basin snow cover mapping methods, generating snowmelt runoff simulations, forecasts, and long-term climate change assessments, and informing the public of the results through outreach and educational activities. Five new SNOTEL and four new SCAN sites are being installed in 2009-2010 and 12 existing basic SNOTEL sites are being upgraded. In addition, 30 automated precipitation gages are being added to New Mexico measurement networks. The first phase of snow mapping and modeling has focused on four sub basins

  15. Utilizing web-based geodata for rapid disaster identification and assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leith, Kerry; Schmitt, Michael; Sickert, Salomon; Metzger, Alex; Krautblatter, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Developing methods to rapidly locate and quantify the impact of natural disasters can aid both the coordination of emergency response, and the long-term understanding of natural hazards in a range of environmental settings. Gaining such quantitative data in the aftermath of landslide events is particularly challenging, as the localized nature, steep terrain, and frequent damage to infrastructure caused by common triggering events (e.g. earthquakes, storms) complicates traditional methods of survey and data communication. As a result, the first, and often best overview of disastrous events is typically provided by eyewitness or first-responder photographs distributed through official, or social media networks. Although these images allow for an initial qualitative assessment of the event, their ad-hoc nature does not currently allow for either precise location, or quantitative evaluation of key event parameters (e.g. structural setting, geology, geometry, size, transport path, or total fall height). Here we present two tools designed to facilitate initial location and assessment of key event parameters using a combination of freely available geodata and information derived from eyewitness observations. These tools are currently under development, and rely on the adaptation of existing photogrammetric techniques in order to allow users to rapidly map and quantify event parameters from a combination of ad-hoc media photographs, and existing orthophoto and digital terrain model data (e.g. LiDAR, SRTM, ASTER). By incorporating results in freely-available GIS platforms such as Google Earth, local authorities will be able to to better assess and disseminate information regarding the impact of natural disasters in the critical hours following an event. We expect that quantitative data derived from events will provide important information to allow geohazard researchers to better assess landslide generation, and authorities to better plan responses to future triggering

  16. Best approach to impact assessment is to use empirically based or simulation models to forecast impacts. Environmental Sciences Division Publication No. 1538

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christensen, S.W.

    1980-01-01

    This paper advocates the utility of mathematical models, as contrasted with statistical procedures and processional judgment, for assessing environmental impacts. While it would be desirable to use statistical tests to detect and estimate impacts, this is generally difficult or impossible to do, even with existing sources of impact. Empirical modeling, supported by statistical analyses when possible, is proffered as the logical alternative. Next, for purposes of forecasting impacts, the use of models as opposed to professional judgment or experience is considered. The conclusion is reached that, while models cannot answer all of the relevant questions, they can be used effectively and can address problems that are beyond the reach of statistical methods

  17. System Safety Assessment Based on Past Incidents in Oil and Gas Industries: A Focused Approach in Forecasting of Minor, Severe, Critical, and Catastrophic Incidents, 2010–2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Praveen Patel

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Accident in an occupation which occurred due to series of repetitive minor incidents within the working environment. This work demonstrates the critical system safety assessment based on various incidents that took place to the different system and subsystem of two Indian oil refineries in five years of span 2010 to 2015. The categorization of incidents and hazard rate function of each incident category were classified and calculated. The result of Weibull analysis estimators in the form of scale and shape parameters provides useful information of incidents forecasting and their patterns in a particular time.

  18. Relevance of new multispectral imagery for assessing tropical forest disturbance: RapidEye and WorldView-2

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Cho, Moses A

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The aims of this study were to assess utility of RapidEye imagery for predicting leaf nitrogen concentration and evaluate the effects of forest fragmentation on leaf nitrogen distribution in the Dukuduku forest, KwaZulu Natal, South Africa. RapidEye...

  19. Applying an improved rapid impact assessment matrix method to strategic environmental assessment of urban planning in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Wei, E-mail: weili@bnu.edu.cn; Xie, Yuanbo, E-mail: former_007@163.com; Hao, Fanghua, E-mail: fanghua@bnu.edu.cn

    2014-04-01

    Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) has become an increasingly important decision-support tool for providing information on the environmental implications of a policy, plan, or program. The goal is to safeguard the environment and promote sustainable development at the strategic level. Despite major progress in implementing SEA practices internationally, developing countries, such as China, often lag behind in applying SEA methodology. Lack of available data and time constraints arising from tight schedules create problems. The rapid impact assessment matrix (RIAM) is a potential resource for breaking through such difficulties. Our analysis of RIAM applications suggested that it could become a tool for evaluating strategic alternatives because of its applicability in interdisciplinary settings, its transparency, and its short implementation timeframe. To make it more suitable for the SEA context, we have developed two major improvements to the conventional RIAM process: assignment of weights to assessment indicators and the development of an integrated environmental assessment score (IES). The improved RIAM process was employed in an SEA of the development plan for the Nansha District in Guangzhou, the capital city of Guangdong Province in China. It was used to assess five alternatives for development in Wanqingsha (WQS), a subunit of Nansha, where important ecological resources are located and where industrial development could impact the air quality in the neighboring Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The evaluation identified WQS-A04 as the preferred alternative. This alternative involved a minimal amount of industrial development – 10% compared with the most intense development alternative – and included important wetland preservation plans. The assessment results have been incorporated into the officially approved development plan for Nansha. The improved RIAM methodology is well adapted to the technical aims of SEA and decision

  20. Applying an improved rapid impact assessment matrix method to strategic environmental assessment of urban planning in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Wei; Xie, Yuanbo; Hao, Fanghua

    2014-01-01

    Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) has become an increasingly important decision-support tool for providing information on the environmental implications of a policy, plan, or program. The goal is to safeguard the environment and promote sustainable development at the strategic level. Despite major progress in implementing SEA practices internationally, developing countries, such as China, often lag behind in applying SEA methodology. Lack of available data and time constraints arising from tight schedules create problems. The rapid impact assessment matrix (RIAM) is a potential resource for breaking through such difficulties. Our analysis of RIAM applications suggested that it could become a tool for evaluating strategic alternatives because of its applicability in interdisciplinary settings, its transparency, and its short implementation timeframe. To make it more suitable for the SEA context, we have developed two major improvements to the conventional RIAM process: assignment of weights to assessment indicators and the development of an integrated environmental assessment score (IES). The improved RIAM process was employed in an SEA of the development plan for the Nansha District in Guangzhou, the capital city of Guangdong Province in China. It was used to assess five alternatives for development in Wanqingsha (WQS), a subunit of Nansha, where important ecological resources are located and where industrial development could impact the air quality in the neighboring Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The evaluation identified WQS-A04 as the preferred alternative. This alternative involved a minimal amount of industrial development – 10% compared with the most intense development alternative – and included important wetland preservation plans. The assessment results have been incorporated into the officially approved development plan for Nansha. The improved RIAM methodology is well adapted to the technical aims of SEA and decision

  1. Scaling up success to improve health: Towards a rapid assessment guide for decision makers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Paltzer

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Evidence-based health interventions exist and are effectively implemented throughout resource-limited settings. The literature regarding scale-up strategies and frameworks is growing. The purpose of this paper is to identify and systematically document the variation in scale-up strategies to develop a rapid assessment tool for decision-makers looking to identify the most appropriate strategy for their organizational and environmental contexts. Methods A list of scale-up strategies and frameworks were identified through an in-depth literature review and conversations with scale-up and quality improvement leaders. The literature search included a broad range of terms that might be used interchangeably with scale-up of best practices. Terms included: implementation research, knowledge translation, translational research, quality improvement research, health systems improvement, scale-up, best practices, improvement collaborative, and community based research. Based on this research, 18 strategies and frameworks were identified, and nine met our inclusion criteria for scale-up of health-related strategies. We interviewed the key contact for four of the nine strategies to obtain additional information regarding the strategy’s scale-up components, targets, underlying theories, evaluation efforts, facilitating factors, and barriers. A comparative analysis of common elements and strategy characteristics was completed by two of the authors on the nine selected strategies. Key strategy characteristics and common factors that facilitate or hinder the strategy’s success in scaling up health-related interventions were identified. Results Common features of scale-up strategies include: 1 the development of context-specific evidence; 2 collaborative partnerships; 3 iterative processes; and 4 shared decision-making. Facilitating factors include strong leadership, community engagement, communication, government collaboration, and a focus on

  2. Pacific Islands Coral Reef Ecosystems Division (CRED) Rapid Ecological Assessment (REA) algae species lists (NODC Accession 0010352)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Quadrats were sampled along consecutively placed transect lines as part of Rapid Ecological Assessments conducted at sites in American Pacific Islands: CRED REA...

  3. Framework tool for a rapid cumulative effects assessment: case of a prominent wetland in Myanmar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, N; Habib, H; Venkatappa, M; Ebbers, T; Duboz, R; Shipin, O

    2015-06-01

    The wetland of focus, Inle Lake, located in central Myanmar, is well known for its unique biodiversity and culture, as well as for ingenious floating garden agriculture. During the last decades, the lake area has seen extensive degradation in terms of water quality, erosion, deforestation, and biodiversity concomitant with a major shift to unsustainable land use. The study was conducted, with an emphasis on water quality, to analyze environmental impacts (effects) changing the ecosystem and to comprehensively evaluate the environmental state of the ecosystem through an innovative Rapid Cumulative Effects Assessment framework tool. The assessment started with a framework-forming Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), which quantified and prioritized impacts over space and time. Critically important impacts were assessed for "intra-inter interactions" using the loop analysis simulation. Water samples were analyzed while geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing were used to identify water pollution hotspots. It was concluded that out of a plethora of impacts, pollution from municipal sources, sedimentation, and effects exerted by floating gardens had the most detrimental impacts, which cumulatively affected the entire ecosystem. The framework tool was designed in a broad sense with a reference to highly needed assessments of poorly studied wetlands where degradation is evident, but scarcely quantified, and where long-term field studies are fraught with security issues and resource unavailability (post-conflict, poor and remote regions, e.g., Afghanistan, Laos, Sudan, etc.).

  4. Rapid quality assessment of Radix Aconiti Preparata using direct analysis in real time mass spectrometry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu Hongbin; Wang Chunyan; Qi Yao [Changchun Center of Mass Spectrometry and Chemical Biology Laboratory, Changchun Institute of Applied Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130022 (China); University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039 (China); Song Fengrui, E-mail: songfr@ciac.jl.cn [Changchun Center of Mass Spectrometry and Chemical Biology Laboratory, Changchun Institute of Applied Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130022 (China); Liu Zhiqiang; Liu Shuying [Changchun Center of Mass Spectrometry and Chemical Biology Laboratory, Changchun Institute of Applied Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130022 (China)

    2012-11-08

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer DART MS combined with PCA and HCA was used to rapidly identify markers of Radix Aconiti. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The DART MS behavior of six aconitine-type alkaloids was investigated. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Chemical markers were recognized between the qualified and unqualified samples. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer DART MS was shown to be an effective tool for quality control of Radix Aconiti Preparata. - Abstract: This study presents a novel and rapid method to identify chemical markers for the quality control of Radix Aconiti Preparata, a world widely used traditional herbal medicine. In the method, the samples with a fast extraction procedure were analyzed using direct analysis in real time mass spectrometry (DART MS) combined with multivariate data analysis. At present, the quality assessment approach of Radix Aconiti Preparata was based on the two processing methods recorded in Chinese Pharmacopoeia for the purpose of reducing the toxicity of Radix Aconiti and ensuring its clinical therapeutic efficacy. In order to ensure the safety and effectivity in clinical use, the processing degree of Radix Aconiti should be well controlled and assessed. In the paper, hierarchical cluster analysis and principal component analysis were performed to evaluate the DART MS data of Radix Aconiti Preparata samples in different processing times. The results showed that the well processed Radix Aconiti Preparata, unqualified processed and the raw Radix Aconiti could be clustered reasonably corresponding to their constituents. The loading plot shows that the main chemical markers having the most influence on the discrimination amongst the qualified and unqualified samples were mainly some monoester diterpenoid aconitines and diester diterpenoid aconitines, i.e. benzoylmesaconine, hypaconitine, mesaconitine, neoline, benzoylhypaconine, benzoylaconine, fuziline, aconitine and 10-OH-mesaconitine. The established DART MS approach in

  5. Rapid quality assessment of Radix Aconiti Preparata using direct analysis in real time mass spectrometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Hongbin; Wang Chunyan; Qi Yao; Song Fengrui; Liu Zhiqiang; Liu Shuying

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► DART MS combined with PCA and HCA was used to rapidly identify markers of Radix Aconiti. ► The DART MS behavior of six aconitine-type alkaloids was investigated. ► Chemical markers were recognized between the qualified and unqualified samples. ► DART MS was shown to be an effective tool for quality control of Radix Aconiti Preparata. - Abstract: This study presents a novel and rapid method to identify chemical markers for the quality control of Radix Aconiti Preparata, a world widely used traditional herbal medicine. In the method, the samples with a fast extraction procedure were analyzed using direct analysis in real time mass spectrometry (DART MS) combined with multivariate data analysis. At present, the quality assessment approach of Radix Aconiti Preparata was based on the two processing methods recorded in Chinese Pharmacopoeia for the purpose of reducing the toxicity of Radix Aconiti and ensuring its clinical therapeutic efficacy. In order to ensure the safety and effectivity in clinical use, the processing degree of Radix Aconiti should be well controlled and assessed. In the paper, hierarchical cluster analysis and principal component analysis were performed to evaluate the DART MS data of Radix Aconiti Preparata samples in different processing times. The results showed that the well processed Radix Aconiti Preparata, unqualified processed and the raw Radix Aconiti could be clustered reasonably corresponding to their constituents. The loading plot shows that the main chemical markers having the most influence on the discrimination amongst the qualified and unqualified samples were mainly some monoester diterpenoid aconitines and diester diterpenoid aconitines, i.e. benzoylmesaconine, hypaconitine, mesaconitine, neoline, benzoylhypaconine, benzoylaconine, fuziline, aconitine and 10-OH-mesaconitine. The established DART MS approach in combination with multivariate data analysis provides a very flexible and reliable method for quality

  6. Evaporation-precipitation variability over Indian Ocean and its assessment in NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pokhrel, Samir; Parekh, Anant; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Dhakate, Ashish; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Rahaman, Hasibur [Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad (India); Gairola, Rakesh Mohan [Space Applications Centre, ISRO, Ahmedabad (India)

    2012-11-15

    An attempt has been made to explore all the facets of Evaporation-Precipitation (E-P) distribution and variability over the Indian Ocean (IO) basin using Objectively Analyzed air-sea Fluxes (OAFlux) data and subsequently a thorough assessment of the latest version of National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) version-2 is done. This study primarily focuses on two fundamental issues, first, the core issue of pervasive cold SST bias in the CFS simulation in the context of moisture flux exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean and second, the fidelity of the model in simulating mean and variability of E-P and its elemental components associated with the climatic anomalies occurring over the Indian and the Pacific ocean basin. Valuation of evaporation and precipitation, the two integral component of E-P, along with the similar details of wind speed, air-sea humidity difference ({Delta}Q) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are performed. CFS simulation is vitiated by the presence of basin wide systematic positive bias in evaporation, {Delta}Q and similar negative bias in wind speed and SST. Bifurcation of the evaporation bias into its components reveals that bias in air humidity (Q{sub a}) is basically responsible for the presence of pervasive positive evaporation bias. The regions where CFS does not adhere to the observed wind-evaporation and Q{sub a} -evaporation relation was found to lie over the northern Arabian Sea (AS), the western Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the western Equatorial IO. Evaporation bias is found to control a significant quantum of cold SST bias over most of the basin owing to its intimate association with SST in a coupled feedback system. This area is stretched over the almost entire north IO, north of 15 {sup circle} S excluding a small equatorial strip, where the evaporation bias may essentially explain 20-100 % of cold SST bias. This percentage is maximum over the western IO, central AS and BoB. The CFS

  7. kosh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kpdt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kewr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kiso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kpga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kbkw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. ktcl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. pgwt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kpsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kbih Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kdnl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kart Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kilm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kpne Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kabi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. ptpn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kblf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. panc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kpbi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kgdv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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  17. kcre Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. klws Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kotm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. khqm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kabr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. klal Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kelp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kecg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. khbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kpbf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. konp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. pkwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. ktvf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. paga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. khks Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kdsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kpsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kgrb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kgmu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. papg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kbgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. pamc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. klrd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. ksan Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. patk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kowb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. klru Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kfxe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kjct Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kcrg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. paaq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kaex Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. klbx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kmia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kpit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kcrw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. paen Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kast Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kuin Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kmht Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kcys Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kflo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. pakn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. pabt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. krdg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. khdn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kjac Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kphx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. A robust method to forecast volcanic ash clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denlinger, Roger P.; Pavolonis, Mike; Sieglaff, Justin

    2012-01-01

    Ash clouds emanating from volcanic eruption columns often form trails of ash extending thousands of kilometers through the Earth's atmosphere, disrupting air traffic and posing a significant hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community charged with reducing flight risk must accurately assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. In response to this need, a number of different transport models have been developed for this purpose and applied to recent eruptions, providing a means to assess uncertainty in forecasts. Here we provide a framework for optimal forecasts and their uncertainties given any model and any observational data. This involves random sampling of the probability distributions of input (source) parameters to a transport model and iteratively running the model with different inputs, each time assessing the predictions that the model makes about ash dispersal by direct comparison with satellite data. The results of these comparisons are embodied in a likelihood function whose maximum corresponds to the minimum misfit between model output and observations. Bayes theorem is then used to determine a normalized posterior probability distribution and from that a forecast of future uncertainty in ash dispersal. The nature of ash clouds in heterogeneous wind fields creates a strong maximum likelihood estimate in which most of the probability is localized to narrow ranges of model source parameters. This property is used here to accelerate probability assessment, producing a method to rapidly generate a prediction of future ash concentrations and their distribution based upon assimilation of satellite data as well as model and data uncertainties. Applying this method to the recent eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, we show that the 3 and 6 h forecasts of ash cloud location probability encompassed the location of observed satellite-determined ash cloud loads, providing an

  6. Six rapid assessments of alcohol and other substance use in populations displaced by conflict

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adelekan Moruf

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Substance use among populations displaced by conflict is a neglected area of public health. Alcohol, khat, benzodiazepine, opiate, and other substance use have been documented among a range of displaced populations, with wide-reaching health and social impacts. Changing agendas in humanitarian response-including increased prominence of mental health and chronic illness-have so far failed to be translated into meaningful interventions for substance use. Methods Studies were conducted from 2006 to 2008 in six different settings of protracted displacement, three in Africa (Kenya, Liberia, northern Uganda and three in Asia (Iran, Pakistan, and Thailand. We used intervention-oriented qualitative Rapid Assessment and Response methods, adapted from two decades of experience among non-displaced populations. The main sources of data were individual and group interviews conducted with a culturally representative (non-probabilistic sample of community members and service providers. Results Widespread use of alcohol, particularly artisanally-produced alcohol, in Kenya, Liberia, Uganda, and Thailand, and opiates in Iran and Pakistan was believed by participants to be linked to a range of health, social and protection problems, including illness, injury (intentional and unintentional, gender-based violence, risky behaviour for HIV and other sexually transmitted infection and blood-borne virus transmission, as well as detrimental effects to household economy. Displacement experiences, including dispossession, livelihood restriction, hopelessness and uncertain future may make communities particularly vulnerable to substance use and its impact, and changing social norms and networks (including the surrounding population may result in changed - and potentially more harmful-patterns of use. Limited access to services, including health services, and exclusion from relevant host population programmes, may exacerbate the harmful consequences

  7. The “jaundice hotline” for the rapid assessment of patients with jaundice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Jonathan; Hussaini, Hyder; McGovern, Dermot; Farrow, Richard; Maskell, Giles; Dalton, Harry

    2002-01-01

    Problem Patients with jaundice require rapid diagnosis and treatment, yet such patients are often subject to delay. Design An open referral, rapid access jaundice clinic was established by reorganisation of existing services and without the need for significant extra resources. Background and setting A large general hospital in a largely rural and geographically isolated area. Key measures for improvement Waiting times for referral, consultation, diagnosis, and treatment, length of stay in hospital, and general practitioners' and patients' satisfaction with the service. Strategies for change Referrals were made through a 24 hour telephone answering machine and fax line. Initial assessment of patients was carried out by junior staff as part of their working week. Dedicated ultrasonography appointments were made available. Effects of change Of 107 patients seen in the first year of the service, 62 had biliary obstruction. The mean time between referral and consultation was 2.5 days. Patients who went on to endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography waited 5.7 days on average. The mean length of stay in hospital in the 69 patients who were admitted was 6.1 days, compared with 11.5 days in 1996, as shown by audit data. Nearly all the 36 general practices (95%) and the 30 consecutive patients (97%) that were surveyed rated the service as above average or excellent. Lessons learnt An open referral, rapid access service for patients with jaundice can shorten time to diagnosis and treatment and length of stay in hospital. These improvements can occur through the reorganisation of existing services and with minimal extra cost. PMID:12142314

  8. Relationships between Rapid Eye Movement Sleep Behavior Disorder and Neurodegenerative Diseases: Clinical Assessments, Biomarkers, and Treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Min; Wang, Li; Liu, Jiang-Hong; Zhan, Shu-Qin

    2018-01-01

    Objective: Rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder (RBD) is characterized by dream enactment and loss of muscle atonia during rapid eye movement sleep. RBD is closely related to α-synucleinopathies including Parkinson's disease, dementia with Lewy bodies, and multiple system atrophy. Many studies have investigated the markers of imaging and neurophysiological, genetic, cognitive, autonomic function of RBD and their predictive value for neurodegenerative diseases. This report reviewed the progress of these studies and discussed their limitations and future research directions. Data Sources: Using the combined keywords: “RBD”, “neurodegenerative disease”, “Parkinson disease”, and “magnetic resonance imaging”, the PubMed/MEDLINE literature search was conducted up to January 1, 2018. Study Selection: A total of 150 published articles were initially identified citations. Of the 150 articles, 92 articles were selected after further detailed review. This study referred to all the important English literature in full. Results: Single-nucleotide polymorphisms in SCARB2 (rs6812193) and MAPT (rs12185268) were significantly associated with RBD. The olfactory loss, autonomic dysfunction, marked electroencephalogram slowing during both wakefulness and rapid eye movement sleep, and cognitive impairments were potential predictive markers for RBD conversion to neurodegenerative diseases. Traditional structural imaging studies reported relatively inconsistent results, whereas reduced functional connectivity between the left putamen and substantia nigra and dopamine transporter uptake demonstrated by functional imaging techniques were relatively consistent findings. Conclusions: More longitudinal studies should be conducted to evaluate the predictive value of biomarkers of RBD. Moreover, because the glucose and dopamine metabolisms are not specific for assessing cognitive cognition, the molecular metabolism directly related to cognition should be investigated

  9. Exploring the interactions between forecast accuracy, risk perception and perceived forecast reliability in reservoir operator's decision to use forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafiee-Jood, M.; Cai, X.

    2017-12-01

    Advances in streamflow forecasts at different time scales offer a promise for proactive flood management and improved risk management. Despite the huge potential, previous studies have found that water resources managers are often not willing to incorporate streamflow forecasts information in decisions making, particularly in risky situations. While low accuracy of forecasts information is often cited as the main reason, some studies have found that implementation of streamflow forecasts sometimes is impeded by institutional obstacles and behavioral factors (e.g., risk perception). In fact, a seminal study by O'Connor et al. (2005) found that risk perception is the strongest determinant of forecast use while managers' perception about forecast reliability is not significant. In this study, we aim to address this issue again. However, instead of using survey data and regression analysis, we develop a theoretical framework to assess the user-perceived value of streamflow forecasts. The framework includes a novel behavioral component which incorporates both risk perception and perceived forecast reliability. The framework is then used in a hypothetical problem where reservoir operator should react to probabilistic flood forecasts with different reliabilities. The framework will allow us to explore the interactions among risk perception and perceived forecast reliability, and among the behavioral components and information accuracy. The findings will provide insights to improve the usability of flood forecasts information through better communication and education.

  10. Humans as Sensors: Assessing the Information Value of Qualitative Farmer's Crop Condition Surveys for Crop Yield Monitoring and Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beguería, S.

    2017-12-01

    While large efforts are devoted to developing crop status monitoring and yield forecasting systems trough the use of Earth observation data (mostly remotely sensed satellite imagery) and observational and modeled weather data, here we focus on the information value of qualitative data on crop status from direct observations made by humans. This kind of data has a high value as it reflects the expert opinion of individuals directly involved in the development of the crop. However, they have issues that prevent their direct use in crop monitoring and yield forecasting systems, such as their non-spatially explicit nature, or most importantly their qualitative nature. Indeed, while the human brain is good at categorizing the status of physical systems in terms of qualitative scales (`very good', `good', `fair', etcetera), it has difficulties in quantifying it in physical units. This has prevented the incorporation of this kind of data into systems that make extensive use of numerical information. Here we show an example of using qualitative crop condition data to estimate yields of the most important crops in the US early in the season. We use USDA weekly crop condition reports, which are based on a sample of thousands of reporters including mostly farmers and people in direct contact with them. These reporters provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions, in a scale including five levels ranging from `very poor' to `excellent'. The USDA report indicates, for each state, the proportion of reporters fort each condition level. We show how is it possible to model the underlying non-observed quantitative variable that reflects the crop status on each state, and how this model is consistent across states and years. Furthermore, we show how this information can be used to monitor the status of the crops and to produce yield forecasts early in the season. Finally, we discuss approaches for blending this information source with other, more classical earth data sources

  11. Robust forecast comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Jin, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman

    2015-01-01

    Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors. We introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority, and we establish a ...

  12. Rapid in situ assessment for predicting soil quality using an algae-soaked disc seeding assay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nam, Sun-Hwa; Moon, Jongmin; Kim, Shin Woong; Kim, Hakyeong; Jeong, Seung-Woo; An, Youn-Joo

    2017-11-16

    The soil quality of remediated land is altered and this land consequently exerts unexpected biological effects on terrestrial organisms. Therefore, field evaluation of such land should be conducted using biological indicators. Algae are a promising new biological indicator since they are a food source for organisms in higher soil trophic levels and easily sampled from the soil. Field evaluation of soil characteristics is preferred to be testing in laboratory conditions because many biological effects cannot be duplicated during laboratory evaluations. Herein, we describe a convenient and rapid algae-soaked disc seeding assay for assessing soil quality in the field based on soil algae. The collection of algae is easy and rapid and the method predicts the short-term quality of contaminated, remediated, and amended farm and paddy soils. The algae-soaked disc seeding assay is yet to be extensively evaluated, and the method cannot be applied to loamy sand soil in in situ evaluations. The algae-soaked disc seeding assay is recommended for prediction of soil quality in in situ evaluations because it reflects all variations in the environment. The algae-soaked disc seeding assay will help to develop management strategies for in situ evaluation.

  13. A rapid assessment survey of invasive species of macrobenthic invertebrates in Korean waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Chul; Kim, Sung-Tae; Hong, Jae-Sang; Choi, Keun-Hyung

    2017-09-01

    Introduced species are a growing and imminent threat to living marine resources in parts of the world's oceans. The present study is a rapid assessment survey of invasive macrobenthic invertebrate species in Korean ports. We surveyed over 40 ports around Korea during the period of May 2010 March 2013. Among the sampling sites were concrete walls, docks and associated floats, bumpers, tires, and ropes which might harbor non-native species. We found 15 invasive species as follows: one Sponge, two Bryozoans, three Mollusks, one Polychaete, four Cirripedes, and four Ascidians. Three morphologically similar species, namely X. atrata, M. galloprovincialis, and X. securis were further examined for distinctions in their morphology. Although they could be reasonably distinguished based on shell shapes, significant overlap was noted so that additional analysis may be required to correctly distinguish them. Although many of the introduced species have already spread to all three coastal areas, newly arrived invasive species showed a relatively restricted range, with a serpulid polychaete Ficopomatus enigmaticus and a mytilid bivalve Xenostrobus securis found only at a few sites on the East Coast. An exception is for Balanus perforatus, which has rapidly colonized the East coast of Korea following its introduction into the region. Successful management of invasive macrobenthic invertebrates should be established in order to contain the spread of these newly arrived species.

  14. Clustered lot quality assurance sampling to assess immunisation coverage: increasing rapidity and maintaining precision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pezzoli, Lorenzo; Andrews, Nick; Ronveaux, Olivier

    2010-05-01

    Vaccination programmes targeting disease elimination aim to achieve very high coverage levels (e.g. 95%). We calculated the precision of different clustered lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) designs in computer-simulated surveys to provide local health officers in the field with preset LQAS plans to simply and rapidly assess programmes with high coverage targets. We calculated sample size (N), decision value (d) and misclassification errors (alpha and beta) of several LQAS plans by running 10 000 simulations. We kept the upper coverage threshold (UT) at 90% or 95% and decreased the lower threshold (LT) progressively by 5%. We measured the proportion of simulations with d unvaccinated individuals if the coverage was LT% (pLT) to calculate alpha (1-pLT). We divided N in clusters (between 5 and 10) and recalculated the errors hypothesising that the coverage would vary in the clusters according to a binomial distribution with preset standard deviations of 0.05 and 0.1 from the mean lot coverage. We selected the plans fulfilling these criteria: alpha LQAS plans dividing the lot in five clusters with N = 50 (5 x 10) and d = 4 to evaluate programmes with 95% coverage target and d = 7 to evaluate programmes with 90% target. These plans will considerably increase the feasibility and the rapidity of conducting the LQAS in the field.

  15. Assessment of variable fluorescence fluorometry as an approach for rapidly detecting living photoautotrophs in ballast water

    Science.gov (United States)

    First, Matthew R.; Robbins-Wamsley, Stephanie H.; Riley, Scott C.; Drake, Lisa A.

    2018-03-01

    Variable fluorescence fluorometry, an analytical approach that estimates the fluorescence yield of chlorophyll a (F0, a proximal measure of algal concentration) and photochemical yield (FV/FM, an indicator of the physiological status of algae) was evaluated as a means to rapidly assess photoautotrophs. Specifically, it was used to gauge the efficacy of ballast water treatment designed to reduce the transport and delivery of potentially invasive organisms. A phytoflagellate, Tetraselmis spp. (10-12 μm) and mixed communities of ambient protists were examined in both laboratory experiments and large-scale field trials simulating 5-d hold times in mock ballast tanks. In laboratory incubations, ambient organisms held in the dark exhibited declining F0 and FV/FM measurements relative to organisms held under lighted conditions. In field experiments, increases and decreases in F0 and FV/FM over the tank hold time corresponded to those of microscope counts of organisms in two of three trials. In the third trial, concentrations of organisms ≥ 10 and protists) increased while F0 and FV/FM decreased. Rapid and sensitive, variable fluorescence fluorometry is appropriate for detecting changes in organism concentrations and physiological status in samples dominated by microalgae. Changes in the heterotrophic community, which may become more prevalent in light-limited ballast tanks, would not be detected via variable fluorescence fluorometry, however.

  16. On the dense water cascading in the Southern Adriatic Sea during 2012: Setup of a Rapid Environmental Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langone, Leonardo

    2013-04-01

    In the North Adriatic, Dense Shelf Water (DSW) forms during cold and dry winters by cooling and evaporation. DSW spreads southward along the western shelf reaching the southern Adriatic basin (1200 m deep) after 1-2 months, where sinks through cascading events. In February 2012, a large Siberian High caused blocking of the Atlantic flow and a westward flow of dry and cold air masses from eastern Russia toward Europe. The North Adriatic experienced a cold spell with large decrease of surface temperature (3° -6° C) associated to severe cold and dry Bora wind. The result was the formation of extremely dense shelf water, further made possible by the very limited discharge of the Po river in the preceding autumn. As contribution to the Italian research programme RITMARE (Italian Research for the Sea), CNR-ISMAR set up a Rapid Environmental Assessment (REA) experiment to study the occurrence, amount, timing and properties of the newly formed DSW. Setting up REA strategies is crucial for several scientific and practical reasons: (i) capturing extreme events to improve our understanding of natural systems in a global-change scenario; (ii) to evaluate their impact on marine systems and the biota; (iii) to address issues related to fluctuating fish stocks as well as (iv) C export and sequestration in the deep sea. The experiment was designed with an integrated approach, including modeling simulations, mooring deployments and quick-response oceanographic cruises. Based on numerical model ensemble, the arrival time of the DSW at the Gargano Cape was forecasted likely starting after March 15, 2012, thus moorings were deployed few days before. Five moorings were deployed in sites selected on the basis of modelling predictions and geology-driven inferences defining areas where the passage of dense shelf water is most likely to occur. Moorings were equipped with down-looking ADCPs, automatic sediment traps, temperature loggers, recorders of temperature, conductivity and

  17. Rapid health assessments of evacuation centres in areas affected by Typhoon Haiyan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Alma Ramos

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Typhoon Haiyan caused thousands of deaths and catastrophic destruction, leaving many homeless in Region 8 of the Philippines. A team from the Philippine Field Epidemiology Training Program conducted a rapid health assessment survey of evacuation centres severely affected by Haiyan. Methods: A descriptive study was conducted whereby a convenience sample of evacuation centres were assessed on the number of toilets per evacuee, sanitation, drinking-water, food supply source and medical services. Results: Of the 20 evacuation centres assessed, none had a designated manager. Most were located in schools (70% with the estimated number of evacuees ranging from 15 to 5000 per centre. Only four (20% met the World Health Organization standard for number of toilets per evacuee; none of the large evacuation centres had even half the recommended number of toilets. All of the evacuation centres had available drinking-water. None of the evacuation centres had garbage collection, vector control activities or standby medical teams. Fourteen (70% evacuation centres had onsite vaccination activities for measles, tetanus and polio virus. Many evacuation centres were overcrowded. Conclusion: Evacuation centres are needed in almost every disaster. They should be safely located and equipped with the required amenities. In disaster-prone areas such as the Philippines, schools and community centres should not be designated as evacuation centres unless they are equipped with adequate sanitation services.

  18. Rapid and Quantitative Assessment of Cancer Treatment Response Using In Vivo Bioluminescence Imaging

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    Alnawaz Rehemtulla

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Current assessment of orthotopic tumor models in animals utilizes survival as the primary therapeutic end point. In vivo bioluminescence imaging (BLI is a sensitive imaging modality that is rapid and accessible, and may comprise an ideal tool for evaluating antineoplastic therapies [1 ]. Using human tumor cell lines constitutively expressing luciferase, the kinetics of tumor growth and response to therapy have been assessed in intraperitoneal [2], subcutaneous, and intravascular [3] cancer models. However, use of this approach for evaluating orthotopic tumor models has not been demonstrated. In this report, the ability of BLI to noninvasively quantitate the growth and therapeuticinduced cell kill of orthotopic rat brain tumors derived from 9L gliosarcoma cells genetically engineered to stably express firefly luciferase (9LLuc was investigated. Intracerebral tumor burden was monitored over time by quantitation of photon emission and tumor volume using a cryogenically cooled CCD camera and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, respectively. There was excellent correlation (r=0.91 between detected photons and tumor volume. A quantitative comparison of tumor cell kill determined from serial MRI volume measurements and BLI photon counts following 1,3-bis(2-chloroethyl-1-nitrosourea (BCNU treatment revealed that both imaging modalities yielded statistically similar cell kill values (P=.951. These results provide direct validation of BLI imaging as a powerful and quantitative tool for the assessment of antineoplastic therapies in living animals.

  19. Rapid quality assessment of Radix Aconiti Preparata using direct analysis in real time mass spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hongbin; Wang, Chunyan; Qi, Yao; Song, Fengrui; Liu, Zhiqiang; Liu, Shuying

    2012-11-08

    This study presents a novel and rapid method to identify chemical markers for the quality control of Radix Aconiti Preparata, a world widely used traditional herbal medicine. In the method, the samples with a fast extraction procedure were analyzed using direct analysis in real time mass spectrometry (DART MS) combined with multivariate data analysis. At present, the quality assessment approach of Radix Aconiti Preparata was based on the two processing methods recorded in Chinese Pharmacopoeia for the purpose of reducing the toxicity of Radix Aconiti and ensuring its clinical therapeutic efficacy. In order to ensure the safety and effectivity in clinical use, the processing degree of Radix Aconiti should be well controlled and assessed. In the paper, hierarchical cluster analysis and principal component analysis were performed to evaluate the DART MS data of Radix Aconiti Preparata samples in different processing times. The results showed that the well processed Radix Aconiti Preparata, unqualified processed and the raw Radix Aconiti could be clustered reasonably corresponding to their constituents. The loading plot shows that the main chemical markers having the most influence on the discrimination amongst the qualified and unqualified samples were mainly some monoester diterpenoid aconitines and diester diterpenoid aconitines, i.e. benzoylmesaconine, hypaconitine, mesaconitine, neoline, benzoylhypaconine, benzoylaconine, fuziline, aconitine and 10-OH-mesaconitine. The established DART MS approach in combination with multivariate data analysis provides a very flexible and reliable method for quality assessment of toxic herbal medicine. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Ecosytem Services: A Rapid Assessment Method Tested at 35 Sites of the LTER-Europe Network

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    Dick Jan

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The identification of parameters to monitor the ecosystem services delivered at a site is fundamental to the concept’s adoption as a useful policy instrument at local, national and international scales. In this paper we (i describe the process of developing a rapid comprehensive ecosystem service assessment methodology and (ii test the applicability of the protocol at 35 long-term research (LTER sites across 14 countries in the LTER-Europe network (www.lter-europe.net including marine, urban, agricultural, forest, desert and conservation sites. An assessment of probability of occurrence with estimated confidence score using 83 ecosystem service parameters was tested. The parameters were either specific services like food production or proxies such as human activities which were considered surrogates for cultural diversity and economic activity. This initial test of the ecosystem service parameter list revealed that the parameters tested were relatively easy to score by site managers with a high level of certainty (92% scored as either occurring or not occurring at the site with certainty of over 90%. Based on this assessment, we concluded that (i this approach to operationalise the concept of ecosystem services is practical and applicable by many sectors of civil society as a first screen of the ecosystem services present at a site, (ii this study has direct relevance to land management and policy decision makers as a transparent vehicle to focus testing scenarios and target data gathering, but (iii further work beyond the scale investigated here is required to ensure global applicability.

  1. Rapid maxillary expansion effects: An alternative assessment method by means of cone-beam tomography

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    Camilo Aquino Melgaço

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: This study aims to develop a method to assess the changes in palatal and lingual cross-sectional areas in patients submitted to rapid maxillary expansion (RME. METHODS: The sample comprised 31 Class I malocclusion individuals submitted to RME and divided into two groups treated with Haas (17 patients and Hyrax (14 patients expanders. Cone-beam computed tomography scans were acquired at T0 (before expansion and T1 (six months after screw stabilization. Maxillary and mandibular cross-sectional areas were assessed at first permanent molars and first premolars regions and compared at T0 and T1. Mandibular occlusal area was also analyzed. RESULTS: Maxillary cross-sectional areas increased in 56.18 mm2 and 44.32 mm2 for the posterior and anterior regions. These values were smaller for the mandible, representing augmentation of 40.32 mm2 and 39.91 mm2 for posterior and anterior sections. No differences were found when comparing both expanders. Mandibular occlusal area increased 43.99mm2 and mandibular incisors proclined. Increments of 1.74 mm and 1.7 mm occurred in mandibular intermolar and interpremolar distances. These same distances presented increments of 5.5 mm and 5.57 mm for the maxillary arch. CONCLUSION: Occlusal and cross-sectional areas increased significantly after RME. The method described seems to be reliable and precise to assess intraoral area changes.

  2. Rivers rapid assessment protocols and insertion of society in monitoring of water resources

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    Guilherme Malafaia

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The degradation of water resources has been detected and changes both institutional and in the legislation have been demanded. The careless use of rivers has ecological changes as direct consequence, causing serious modifications in the landscape and fluvial regime, besides altering the availability of habitats and the trophic composition of the aquatic environment. Pressed by this scenario, scientists have been developing assessment methods that are efficient both for the evaluation itself and for supporting decision taking in the environmental management processes. In this perspective, the objective of this study is to present the Rapid River Assessment Protocols (RAPs and to emphasize how these protocols can promote the community participation in water resources monitoring. The RAPs can used to evaluate in an integrated form the characteristics of a river section according to the conservation or degradation condition of the fluvial environment and it is characterized by its economic viability and easy applicability. In regions with poor financial resources and serious problems of water quality, the RAPs can be used in environmental management programs. By using these protocols, the integration of the community in water resources monitoring generates data which represent the quality of fluvial ecosystems throughout time, without requesting high costs or specialized professionals. The RAPs in a simplified but not simplistic tool, which can be used in activities that aim at promoting a quick and reliable assessment of the “health” of a river.

  3. Post-Flood Rapid Needs Assessment in Srinagar City, Jammu and Kashmir State, India, September, 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, Rajesh; Somashekar, Dundaiah; Sodha, Samir V; Laserson, Kayla F; Venkatesh, Srinivasa; Chauhan, Himanshu

    2018-03-21

    Torrential rainfall and flooding from September 2-6, 2014 submerged >350 villages in Jammu and Kashmir state. We conducted rapid needs assessment in capital Srinagar from 27 September to 1 October to assess population health and safety needs. Based on Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER) methodology, we selected 7 households each from 30 census blocks using 2-stage cluster sampling. We collected information on demographics, needs, and illnesses using structured questionnaire. Of the 210 households surveyed, an estimated 57% (CI: 41%-73%) reported significant damage, 50% (CI: 36%-63%) were evacuated, and 16% (CI: 10%-22%) reported injuries. Households lacked electricity (22%; CI: 8.8%-36%), tap water (13%; CI: 5%-21%), working toilets (11%; CI: 4%-19%), and adequate food supply (14%; CI: 8%-20%). Moreover, 55% (CI: 45%-64%) of households reported cough, cold, fever, rashes, or diarrhea; 68% (CI: 59%-77%) experienced agitation, anxiety, depression, or nightmares since the flooding. Of the households with a member on medicines for non-communicable diseases, 40% did not have a week's supply. Restoring basic essentials (30%; CI: 22%-37%) and repairing houses (30%; CI: 19%-40%) were the most urgent needs expressed. Floods damaged >1/2 of households in Srinagar, disrupting basic essentials, and causing mental trauma. These findings helped authorities prioritize assistance with psychological symptoms and availability of prescription medicines. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;page 1 of 5).

  4. Application of two electrical methods for the rapid assessment of freezing resistance in Salix epichloro

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsarouhas, V.; Kenney, W.A.; Zsuffa, L. [University of Toronto, Ontario (Canada). Faculty of Forestry

    2000-09-01

    The importance of early selection of frost-resistant Salix clones makes it desirable to select a rapid and accurate screening method for assessing freezing resistance among several genotypes. Two electrical methods, stem electrical impedance to 1 and 10 khz alternating current, and electrolyte leakage of leaf tissue, were evaluated for detecting freezing resistance on three North America Salix epichloro Michx., clones after subjecting them to five different freezing temperatures (-1, -2, -3, -4, and -5 deg C). Differences in the electrical impedance to 1 and 10 kHz, and the ratio of the impedance at the two frequencies (low/high) before and after the freezing treatment (DZ{sub low}, DZ{sub high}, and DZ{sub ratio}, respectively) were estimated. Electrolyte leakage was expressed as relative conductivity (RC{sub t}) and index of injury (IDX{sub t}). Results from the two methods, obtained two days after the freezing stress, showed that both electrical methods were able to detect freezing injury in S. eriocephala. However, the electrolyte leakage method detected injury in more levels of freezing stress (-3, -4, and -5 deg C) than the impedance (-4, and -5 deg C), it assessed clonal differences in S. eriocephala freezing resistance, and it was best suited to correlate electrical methods with the visual assessed freezing injury. No significant impedance or leakage changes were found after the -1 and -2 deg C freezing temperatures. (author)

  5. A method for the rapid on-site assessment of handleability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, D.W.; Atkin, B.P. [University of Nottingham, Nottingham (United Kingdom). School of Chemical, Environmental and Mining Engineering

    2000-07-01

    The handleability monitor has been specifically designed to provide a simple, rapid and on-site assessment of the whole or part consignment of a coal blend in its 'as-prepared' or 'as-received' condition. Evaluation has been carried out at a number of user's coal-handling plants, on both metallurgical and power station coals from a variety of sources world-wide (Australia, South Africa, United Kingdom and USA). The results are used to predict which coals could routinely pass through handling plant at line capacity, without causing blockage or decay, and have also been correlated with the operator's perception of the coal's handling characteristics and problems caused (blockages in chutes, hoppers, etc.) on the coal handling plant. Monitors were located at a coal fired power station and at a coal handling plant at an iron and steel works. 16 refs., 9 figs.

  6. Rapid assessment of antimicrobial resistance prevalence using a Lot Quality Assurance sampling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leth, Frank; den Heijer, Casper; Beerepoot, Mariëlle; Stobberingh, Ellen; Geerlings, Suzanne; Schultsz, Constance

    2017-04-01

    Increasing antimicrobial resistance (AMR) requires rapid surveillance tools, such as Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS). LQAS classifies AMR as high or low based on set parameters. We compared classifications with the underlying true AMR prevalence using data on 1335 Escherichia coli isolates from surveys of community-acquired urinary tract infection in women, by assessing operating curves, sensitivity and specificity. Sensitivity and specificity of any set of LQAS parameters was above 99% and between 79 and 90%, respectively. Operating curves showed high concordance of the LQAS classification with true AMR prevalence estimates. LQAS-based AMR surveillance is a feasible approach that provides timely and locally relevant estimates, and the necessary information to formulate and evaluate guidelines for empirical treatment.

  7. Rapid assessment of the bryozoan, Zoobotryon verticillatum (Delle Chiaje, 1822) in marinas, Canary Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minchin, Dan

    2012-10-01

    A rapid assessment, using the abundance and distribution range method, was used to evaluate the status of a large branching bryozoan, Zoobotryon verticillatum attached to the immersed part of marina pontoons in the Canary Islands. Colonies were also found attached to the hulls of leisure craft berthed alongside pontoons at three marinas in Lanzarote during 2012. Low levels of abundance and distribution of the bryozoan occurred in marinas with a freshwater influence whereas in a sheltered marina lacking direct freshwater inputs colonies occurred at ∼2 per metre of combined pontoon length. While the occurrence of this bryozoan is recent it may be expected to occur elsewhere in Macaronesia most probably spread by leisure craft. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Additional Interventions to Enhance the Effectiveness of Individual Placement and Support: A Rapid Evidence Assessment

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    Naomi Boycott

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Topic. Additional interventions used to enhance the effectiveness of individual placement and support (IPS. Aim. To establish whether additional interventions improve the vocational outcomes of IPS alone for people with severe mental illness. Method. A rapid evidence assessment of the literature was conducted for studies where behavioural or psychological interventions have been used to supplement standard IPS. Published and unpublished empirical studies of IPS with additional interventions were considered for inclusion. Conclusions. Six published studies were found which compared IPS alone to IPS plus a supplementary intervention. Of these, three used skills training and three used cognitive remediation. The contribution of each discrete intervention is difficult to establish. Some evidence suggests that work-related social skills and cognitive training are effective adjuncts, but this is an area where large RCTs are required to yield conclusive evidence.

  9. Correlates of historical suicide attempt in rapid-cycling bipolar disorder: a cross-sectional assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Keming; Tolliver, Bryan K; Kemp, David E; Ganocy, Stephen J; Bilali, Sarah; Brady, Kathleen L; Findling, Robert L; Calabrese, Joseph R

    2009-07-01

    A rapid-cycling course in bipolar disorder has previously been identified as a risk factor for attempted suicide. This study investigated factors associated with suicide attempts in patients with rapid-cycling bipolar I or II disorder. Cross-sectional data at the initial assessment of patients who were enrolled into 4 clinical trials were used to study the factors associated with suicide attempt. An extensive clinical interview and the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview were used to ascertain DSM-IV diagnoses of rapid-cycling bipolar disorder, substance use disorders, anxiety disorders, psychosis, and other clinical variables. Chi-square, t test, and logistic regression or Poisson regression were used to analyze the data where appropriate, with odds ratios (ORs) for relative risk estimate. The data were collected from September 1995 to June 2005. In a univariate analysis, 41% of 561 patients had at least 1 lifetime suicide attempt. Earlier age of depression onset, bipolar I subtype, female sex, unmarried status, and a history of drug use disorder, panic disorder, sexual abuse, and psychosis were associated with significantly higher rates of attempted suicide (all p drug abuse (OR = 1.62, p = .0317) were independent predictors for increased risk of attempted suicide. However, white race was associated with a lower risk for suicide attempt (OR = 0.47, p = .0160). Psychosis during depression (p = .0003), bipolar I subtype (p = .0302), and physical abuse (p = .0195) were associated with increased numbers of suicide attempts by 248%, 166%, and 162%, respectively; white race was associated with a 60% decrease in the number of suicide attempts (p = .0320). In this highly comorbid group of patients with rapid-cycling bipolar disorder, 41% had at least 1 suicide attempt. Among the demographics, female sex was positively associated, but white race was negatively associated, with the risk for suicide attempt. Independent clinical variables for increased risk and

  10. Factor Analysis and Modelling for Rapid Quality Assessment of Croatian Wheat Cultivars with Different Gluten Characteristics

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    Želimir Kurtanjek

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Factor analysis and multivariate chemometric modelling for rapid assessment of baking quality of wheat cultivars from Slavonia region, Croatia, have been applied. The cultivars Žitarka, Kata, Monika, Ana, Demetra, Divana and Sana were grown under controlled conditions at the experimental field of Agricultural Institute Osijek during three years (2000–2002. Their quality properties were evaluated by 45 different chemical, physical and biochemical variables. The measured variables were grouped as: indirect quality parameters (6, farinographic parameters (7, extensographic parameters (5, baking test parameters (2 and reversed phase-high performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC of gluten proteins (25. The aim of this study is to establish minimal number (three, i.e. principal factors, among the 45 variables and to derive multivariate linear regression models for their use in simple and fast prediction of wheat properties. Selection of the principal factors based on the principal component analysis (PCA has been applied. The first three main factors of the analysis include: total glutenins (TGT, total ω-gliadins (Tω- and the ratio of dough resistance/extensibility (R/Ext. These factors account for 76.45 % of the total variance. Linear regression models gave average regression coefficients (R evaluated for the parameter groups: indirect quality R=0.91, baking test R=0.63, farinographic R=0.78, extensographic R=0.95 and RP-HPLC of gluten data R=0.90. Errors in the model predictions were evaluated by the 95 % significance intervals of the calibration lines. Practical applications of the models for rapid quality assessment and laboratory experiment planning were emphasized.

  11. A vision for regular, rapid assessments of the tropical northwestern Atlantic’s coral reefs

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    Judith C Lang

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The Atlantic and Gulf Rapid Reef Assessment (AGRRA Program, consisting of non-fixed, transect- based visual surveys, provides "snapshot" characterizations of a number of structurally or functionally important benthic and fish indicators on tropical northwestern Atlantic (TNWA coral reefs and Brazil. To ameliorate the confounding factors inherent in multiyear temporal variation, a region-wide collaborative program for conducting rapid reef assessments at regular (five-year intervals in sites that are representative of each sub-region of the TNWA is proposed. Member institutions of the Association of Marine Laboratories of the Caribbean (AMLC and individual colleagues are invited to join in developing the vision. Rev. Biol. Trop. 54 (Suppl. 3: 23-29. Epub 2007 Jan. 15.El Programa de Evaluación Rápida del Atlántico y el Golfo (AGRRA, por sus siglas en inglés consiste en sondeos visuales no-fijos, basados en transectos, que permiten caracterizaciones puntuales de un número de peces y organismos bénticos que sean estructural o funcionalmente importantes como indicadores en arrecifes del Atlántico tropical noroeste (ATNO y de Brasil. Para disminuir los factores de confusión inherentes a variaciones temporales multianuales, se propone un programa de colaboración a nivel regional, que sirva para conducir evaluaciones rápidas de los arrecifes en intervalos regulares (cinco años, en los sitios que sean representativos de cada sub-región del ATNO. Se invita a las instituciones miembro de la Asociación de Laboratorios Marinos y del Caribe (ALMC, así cómo a colegas individuales para participar en el desarrollo de esta visión.

  12. On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T. N.

    2014-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1–5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that ‘goodness’ should be assessed first and foremost in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts; reliable inputs are essential for any forecast-based decision-making. We propose that a ‘5’ should be reserved for systems that are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as one of the world-leading operational institutes producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of ‘goodness’ rankings, depending on region and variable (with summer forecasts of rainfall over Northern Europe performing exceptionally poorly) is found. Finally, we discuss the prospects of reaching ‘5’ across all regions and variables in 30 years time. PMID:24789559

  13. Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Batchelor

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...

  14. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  15. Forecasting military expenditure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Böhmelt

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available To what extent do frequently cited determinants of military spending allow us to predict and forecast future levels of expenditure? The authors draw on the data and specifications of a recent model on military expenditure and assess the predictive power of its variables using in-sample predictions, out-of-sample forecasts and Bayesian model averaging. To this end, this paper provides guidelines for prediction exercises in general using these three techniques. More substantially, however, the findings emphasize that previous levels of military spending as well as a country’s institutional and economic characteristics particularly improve our ability to predict future levels of investment in the military. Variables pertaining to the international security environment also matter, but seem less important. In addition, the results highlight that the updated model, which drops weak predictors, is not only more parsimonious, but also slightly more accurate than the original specification.

  16. Rapid assessment of malaria transmission using age-specific sero-conversion rates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laveta Stewart

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Malaria transmission intensity is a crucial determinant of malarial disease burden and its measurement can help to define health priorities. Rapid, local estimates of transmission are required to focus resources better but current entomological and parasitological methods for estimating transmission intensity are limited in this respect. An alternative is determination of antimalarial antibody age-specific sero-prevalence to estimate sero-conversion rates (SCR, which have been shown to correlate with transmission intensity. This study evaluated SCR generated from samples collected from health facility attendees as a tool for a rapid assessment of malaria transmission intensity.The study was conducted in north east Tanzania. Antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum merozoite antigens MSP-1(19 and AMA-1 were measured by indirect ELISA. Age-specific antibody prevalence was analysed using a catalytic conversion model based on maximum likelihood to generate SCR. A pilot study, conducted near Moshi, found SCRs for AMA-1 were highly comparable between samples collected from individuals in a conventional cross-sectional survey and those collected from attendees at a local health facility. For the main study, 3885 individuals attending village health facilities in Korogwe and Same districts were recruited. Both malaria parasite prevalence and sero-positivity were higher in Korogwe than in Same. MSP-1(19 and AMA-1 SCR rates for Korogwe villages ranged from 0.03 to 0.06 and 0.07 to 0.21 respectively. In Same district there was evidence of a recent reduction in transmission, with SCR among those born since 1998 [MSP-1(19 0.002 to 0.008 and AMA-1 0.005 to 0.014 ] being 5 to 10 fold lower than among individuals born prior to 1998 [MSP-1(19 0.02 to 0.04 and AMA-1 0.04 to 0.13]. Current health facility specific estimates of SCR showed good correlations with malaria incidence rates in infants in a contemporaneous clinical trial (MSP-1(19 r(2 = 0.78, p<0.01 & AMA-1 r

  17. Satellites, tweets, forecasts: the future of flood disaster management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Lorini, Valerio; Wania, Annett; Pappenberger, Florian; Salamon, Peter; Ramos, Maria Helena; Cloke, Hannah; Castillo, Carlos

    2017-04-01

    Floods have devastating effects on lives and livelihoods around the world. Structural flood defence measures such as dikes and dams can help protect people. However, it is the emerging science and technologies for flood disaster management and preparedness, such as increasingly accurate flood forecasting systems, high-resolution satellite monitoring, rapid risk mapping, and the unique strength of social media information and crowdsourcing, that are most promising for reducing the impacts of flooding. Here, we describe an innovative framework which integrates in real-time two components of the Copernicus Emergency mapping services, namely the European Flood Awareness System and the satellite-based Rapid Mapping, with new procedures for rapid risk assessment and social media and news monitoring. The integrated framework enables improved flood impact forecast, thanks to the real-time integration of forecasting and monitoring components, and increases the timeliness and efficiency of satellite mapping, with the aim of capturing flood peaks and following the evolution of flooding processes. Thanks to the proposed framework, emergency responders will have access to a broad range of timely and accurate information for more effective and robust planning, decision-making, and resource allocation.

  18. Rapid psychological assessment of depression and its relationship with physical health among urban elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavithra Cheluvaraj

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Background Old age is associated with increased occurrence of a wide array of Psychological impairments or losses, which might contribute to physical disabilities. As Depression has been identified as the most common aberration its rapid assessment would be able to identify the quality of individual and family life of the elderly. Aims To assess psychological health status with respect to depression among geriatric urban community, and the relationship of depression with health perception and physical health status has been explored. Methods A cross-sectional total geriatric population survey consisting of 254 elderly has been carried out at urban field practice area. A standard geriatric depression scale (Short form has been utilized to assess psychological status. Detailed physical examination and investigations with special reference to Diabetes, Hypertension and Visual defects was carried out. Data was analyzed to find out the relationship of various socio-demographic factors, physical morbidities with depression. Results Out of 254 elderly examined, 32 per cent females and 23 per cent males were found to be suffering from depressive disorders. When assessed for individual health status perception, 25 per cent felt to have good health. Out of 190 geriatric subjects perceiving fair to bad health, 110 were found to be suffering from depression (p<0.001. Depression was also found to be associated with history of hospital admission in the previous year (p<0.05, low vision (p<0.05, diabetes (p<0.01 and hypertension (p<0.01. Conclusion Depression among geriatric age group is associated with physical illness and perception of health.

  19. Development and validation of an instrument for rapidly assessing symptoms: the general symptom distress scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badger, Terry A; Segrin, Chris; Meek, Paula

    2011-03-01

    criterion measures such as depression. Collectively, these results suggest that the GSDS is a straightforward and useful instrument for rapidly assessing symptoms that can disrupt health-related quality of life. Copyright © 2011 U.S. Cancer Pain Relief Committee. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Rapid Assessment of the Ce-Co-Fe-Cu System for Permanent Magnetic Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, F.; Chaudhary, R. P.; Gandha, K.; Nlebedim, I. C.; Palasyuk, A.; Simsek, E.; Kramer, M. J.; Ott, R. T.

    2018-04-01

    This work focuses on the rapid synthesis and characterization of quaternary Ce(CoFeCu)5 alloy libraries to assess their potential viability as permanent magnets. Arrays of bulk specimens with controlled compositions were synthesized via laser engineered net shaping (LENS) by feeding different ratios of alloy powders into a melt pool created by a laser. Based on the assessment of the magnetic properties of the LENS printed samples, arc-melted and cast ingots were prepared with varying Fe (5-20 at.%) and Co (60-45 at.%) compositions while maintaining constant Ce (16 at.%) and Cu (19 at.%) content. The evolution of the microstructure and phases with varying chemical compositions and their dependence on magnetic properties are analyzed in as-cast and heat-treated samples. In both the LENS printed and cast samples, we find the best magnetic properties correspond to a predominantly single-phase Ce(CoFeCu)5 microstructure in which high coercivity (H c > 10 kOe) can be achieved without any microstructural refinement.