WorldWideScience

Sample records for rapid assessment forecasting

  1. Flood Foresight: A near-real time flood monitoring and forecasting tool for rapid and predictive flood impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Shelton, Kay; Wood, Elizabeth; Berry, Robert; Bevington, John; Hankin, Barry; Lewis, Gavin; Gubbin, Andrew; Griffiths, Samuel; Barnard, Paul; Pinnell, Marc; Huyck, Charles

    2017-04-01

    The hours and days immediately after a major flood event are often chaotic and confusing, with first responders rushing to mobilise emergency responders, provide alleviation assistance and assess loss to assets of interest (e.g., population, buildings or utilities). Preparations in advance of a forthcoming event are becoming increasingly important; early warning systems have been demonstrated to be useful tools for decision markers. The extent of damage, human casualties and economic loss estimates can vary greatly during an event, and the timely availability of an accurate flood extent allows emergency response and resources to be optimised, reduces impacts, and helps prioritise recovery. In the insurance sector, for example, insurers are under pressure to respond in a proactive manner to claims rather than waiting for policyholders to report losses. Even though there is a great demand for flood inundation extents and severity information in different sectors, generating flood footprints for large areas from hydraulic models in real time remains a challenge. While such footprints can be produced in real time using remote sensing, weather conditions and sensor availability limit their ability to capture every single flood event across the globe. In this session, we will present Flood Foresight (www.floodforesight.com), an operational tool developed to meet the universal requirement for rapid geographic information, before, during and after major riverine flood events. The tool provides spatial data with which users can measure their current or predicted impact from an event - at building, basin, national or continental scales. Within Flood Foresight, the Screening component uses global rainfall predictions to provide a regional- to continental-scale view of heavy rainfall events up to a week in advance, alerting the user to potentially hazardous situations relevant to them. The Forecasting component enhances the predictive suite of tools by providing a local

  2. Assessment of storm forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Huus Bjerge, Martin

    at analysing the ability of existing forecast tools to predict storms at the Horns Rev 2 wind farm. The focus will be on predicting the time where the wind turbine will need to shut down to protect itself, e.g. the time where wind speed exceeds 25 m/s. At the same time, the planned shut-down should cost...... as little lost wind energy as possible. Therefore, the planned shut down time should be as close as possible to the time where the wind turbine itself would shut down, but still reliable. The forecast systems available to ENERGINET.dk will be applied. The forecast tools ability of accurately predicting...... stopped, completely or partially, producing due to extreme wind speeds. Wind speed and power measurements from those events are presented and compared to the forecast available at Energinet.dk. The analysis looked at wind speed and wind power forecast. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the wind...

  3. Assessment of reservoir system variable forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kistenmacher, Martin; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2015-05-01

    Forecast ensembles are a convenient means to model water resources uncertainties and to inform planning and management processes. For multipurpose reservoir systems, forecast types include (i) forecasts of upcoming inflows and (ii) forecasts of system variables and outputs such as reservoir levels, releases, flood damage risks, hydropower production, water supply withdrawals, water quality conditions, navigation opportunities, and environmental flows, among others. Forecasts of system variables and outputs are conditional on forecasted inflows as well as on specific management policies and can provide useful information for decision-making processes. Unlike inflow forecasts (in ensemble or other forms), which have been the subject of many previous studies, reservoir system variable and output forecasts are not formally assessed in water resources management theory or practice. This article addresses this gap and develops methods to rectify potential reservoir system forecast inconsistencies and improve the quality of management-relevant information provided to stakeholders and managers. The overarching conclusion is that system variable and output forecast consistency is critical for robust reservoir management and needs to be routinely assessed for any management model used to inform planning and management processes. The above are demonstrated through an application from the Sacramento-American-San Joaquin reservoir system in northern California.

  4. Forecasting wildlife response to rapid warming in the Alaskan Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Hemert, Caroline R.; Flint, Paul L.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Koch, Joshua C.; Atwood, Todd C.; Oakley, Karen L.; Pearce, John M.

    2015-01-01

    Arctic wildlife species face a dynamic and increasingly novel environment because of climate warming and the associated increase in human activity. Both marine and terrestrial environments are undergoing rapid environmental shifts, including loss of sea ice, permafrost degradation, and altered biogeochemical fluxes. Forecasting wildlife responses to climate change can facilitate proactive decisions that balance stewardship with resource development. In this article, we discuss the primary and secondary responses to physical climate-related drivers in the Arctic, associated wildlife responses, and additional sources of complexity in forecasting wildlife population outcomes. Although the effects of warming on wildlife populations are becoming increasingly well documented in the scientific literature, clear mechanistic links are often difficult to establish. An integrated science approach and robust modeling tools are necessary to make predictions and determine resiliency to change. We provide a conceptual framework and introduce examples relevant for developing wildlife forecasts useful to management decisions.

  5. Tsunami hazard assessment using forecast tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titov, V. V.; Wei, Y.

    2012-12-01

    NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory is developing tsunami modeling tools as part of the real-time tsunami forecast system for NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers. The models are used in combination with the real-time deep-ocean measurements to produce estimates of tsunami parameters for coastal locations before the wave reaches the coast. This real-time tsunami hazard assessment will help to provide an informative and site-specific warning for coastal communities. Combined with education and mitigation measures, the tsunami forecast and warning will provide an effective means for coastal communities to prevent loss of lives from tsunamis. It will also reduce the chances for unnecessary evacuations due to over-warning. The modeling tools that have been developed for the real-time forecast could be used for the long-term tsunami hazard assessment as well. The forecast models for ocean-wide tsunami propagation and coastal inundation are thoroughly developed and tested to provide the best possible accuracy. These models provide an opportunity for unprecedented quality scope of tsunami hazard assessment for a particular coastal community. Several examples of tsunami hazard assessments using the forecast tools will be presented.

  6. Assessing flood forecast uncertainty with fuzzy arithmetic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Bruyn Bertrand

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Providing forecasts for flow rates and water levels during floods have to be associated with uncertainty estimates. The forecast sources of uncertainty are plural. For hydrological forecasts (rainfall-runoff performed using a deterministic hydrological model with basic physics, two main sources can be identified. The first obvious source is the forcing data: rainfall forecast data are supplied in real time by meteorological forecasting services to the Flood Forecasting Service within a range between a lowest and a highest predicted discharge. These two values define an uncertainty interval for the rainfall variable provided on a given watershed. The second source of uncertainty is related to the complexity of the modeled system (the catchment impacted by the hydro-meteorological phenomenon, the number of variables that may describe the problem and their spatial and time variability. The model simplifies the system by reducing the number of variables to a few parameters. Thus it contains an intrinsic uncertainty. This model uncertainty is assessed by comparing simulated and observed rates for a large number of hydro-meteorological events. We propose a method based on fuzzy arithmetic to estimate the possible range of flow rates (and levels of water making a forecast based on possible rainfalls provided by forcing and uncertainty model. The model uncertainty is here expressed as a range of possible values. Both rainfall and model uncertainties are combined with fuzzy arithmetic. This method allows to evaluate the prediction uncertainty range. The Flood Forecasting Service of Oise and Aisne rivers, in particular, monitors the upstream watershed of the Oise at Hirson. This watershed’s area is 310 km2. Its response time is about 10 hours. Several hydrological models are calibrated for flood forecasting in this watershed and use the rainfall forecast. This method presents the advantage to be easily implemented. Moreover, it permits to be carried out

  7. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  8. Rapid Building Assessment Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-01

    22  Figure 12. Average kWh savings per gross square footage ( GSF ). ....................................... 22  iii LIST OF TABLES...Certification Program FTP File Transfer Protocol GIS Geographical Information Systems GSF gross square footage JCI Johnson Controls Energy...Average kWh savings per gross square footage ( GSF ). 23 6.0 PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT FirstFuel chose each Performance Objective with the major project

  9. The Impact of Lightning on Hurricane Rapid Intensification Forecasts Using the HWRF Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosado, K.; Tallapragada, V.; Jenkins, G. S.

    2016-12-01

    In 2010, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) created the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) with the main goal of improving the tropical cyclone intensity and track forecasts by 50% in ten years. One of the focus areas is the improvement of the tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) forecasts. In order to contribute to this task, the role of lightning during the life cycle of a tropical cyclone using the NCEP operational HWRF hurricane model has been investigated. We ask two key research questions: (1) What is the functional relationship between atmospheric moisture content, lightning, and intensity in the HWRF model? and (2) How well does the HWRF model forecast the spatial distributions of lightning before, during, and after tropical cyclone intensification, especially for RI events? In order to address those questions, a lightning parameterization scheme called the Lightning Potential Index (LPI) was implemented into the HWRF model. The selected study cases to test the LPI implementation on the 2015 HWRF (operational version) are: Earl and Joaquin (North Atlantic), Haiyan (Western North Pacific), and Patricia (Eastern North Pacific). Five-day forecasts was executed on each case study with emphasis on rapid intensification periods. An extensive analysis between observed "best track" intensity, model intensity forecast, and potential for lightning forecast was performed. Preliminary results show that: (1) strong correlation between lightning and intensity changes does exists; and (2) the potential for lightning increases to its maximum peak a few hours prior to the peak intensity of the tropical cyclone. LPI peak values could potentially serve as indicator for future rapid intensification periods. Results from this investigation are giving us a better understanding of the mechanism behind lightning as a proxy for tropical cyclone steady state intensification and tropical cyclone rapid intensification processes. Improvement of

  10. Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Forecast by Patrick A Haines, Jeffrey A Smith, Mark R Hjelmfelt, William J Capehart, and James L Cogan Approved for...OCT 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale Forecast by Patrick A... Forecast 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Patrick A Haines, Jeffrey A Smith, Mark R Hjelmfelt, William

  11. Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment in operational oil spill forecast modeling system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Xianlong; Hodges, Ben R; Feng, Dongyu; Liu, Qixiao

    2017-03-15

    As oil transport increasing in the Texas bays, greater risks of ship collisions will become a challenge, yielding oil spill accidents as a consequence. To minimize the ecological damage and optimize rapid response, emergency managers need to be informed with how fast and where oil will spread as soon as possible after a spill. The state-of-the-art operational oil spill forecast modeling system improves the oil spill response into a new stage. However uncertainty due to predicted data inputs often elicits compromise on the reliability of the forecast result, leading to misdirection in contingency planning. Thus understanding the forecast uncertainty and reliability become significant. In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation is implemented to provide parameters to generate forecast probability maps. The oil spill forecast uncertainty is thus quantified by comparing the forecast probability map and the associated hindcast simulation. A HyosPy-based simple statistic model is developed to assess the reliability of an oil spill forecast in term of belief degree. The technologies developed in this study create a prototype for uncertainty and reliability analysis in numerical oil spill forecast modeling system, providing emergency managers to improve the capability of real time operational oil spill response and impact assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Salamon, Peter; Bianchi, Alessandra; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc

    2017-07-01

    The development of methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is a key step to increase the usefulness of flood early warning systems and is crucial for effective emergency response and flood impact mitigation. Currently, flood early warning systems rarely include real-time components to assess potential impacts generated by forecasted flood events. To overcome this limitation, this study describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Daily streamflow forecasts produced for major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage and affected population, infrastructures and cities.An extensive testing of the operational procedure has been carried out by analysing the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-based and report-based flood extent data, while modelled estimates of economic damage and affected population are compared against ground-based estimations. Finally, we evaluate the skill of risk estimates derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations of probabilistic forecasts. Results highlight the potential of the real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

  13. A hindcast archive to assess forecast uncertainty of seasonal forecasts for the Columbia River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nijssen, B.

    2006-12-01

    More than half of the electricity in the northwestern United States is generated by hydropower facilities in the Columbia River Basin. Consequently, seasonal hydrologic forecasts of naturalized streamflow are of interest to system operators, energy traders and financial institutions. Much of the seasonal streamflow predictability is derived from the importance of snow melt in the Columbia River Basin. Further predictability is derived from the ENSO-state (El Niño Southern Oscillation), which affects precipitation patterns in the basin. Typically, the Pacific Northwest experiences a greater likelihood of reduced precipitation during El Niño episodes, and a greater likelihood of increased precipitation during La Niña episodes. For the 2006 water year, we created long-range operational hydrologic forecasts for selected locations in the basin using a macroscale hydrologic model and an ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) methodology. Although our ESP approach provided a measure of the range of expected streamflow conditions, it did not account for the uncertainty in forecast initial conditions, parameter uncertainty or model uncertainty. To assess the total uncertainty associated with our hydrologic forecasts, we have created a hindcast database for the period 1950-2005, which includes 12-month forecasts made on the start of each month during the period November May. This hindcast archive enables us to assess the total uncertainty associated with our seasonal forecasts. We will present forecast verification results for selected locations in the Columbia River Basin as a function of lead time and ENSO condition.

  14. Value assessment of a global hydrological forecasting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Winsemius, H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; van Beek, E.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2012-04-01

    The inter-annual variability in streamflow presents risks and opportunities in the management of water resources systems. Reliable hydrological forecasts, effective communication and proper response allow several sectors to make more informed management decisions. In many developing regions of the world, there are no efficient hydrological forecasting systems. A global forecasting system which indicates increased probabilities of streamflow excesses or shortages over long lead-times can be of great value for these regions. FEWS-World system is developed for this purpose. It is based on the Delft-FEWS (flood early warning system) developed by Deltares and incorporates the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. This study investigates the skill and value of FEWS-World. Skill is defined as the ability of the system to forecast discharge extremes; and value as its usefulness for possible users and ultimately for affected populations. Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. For the assessment in historical simulation mode a meteorological forcing based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the ERA-40 reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used. For the assessment in retroactive forecasting mode the model was forced with ensemble forecasts from the seasonal forecast archives of ECMWF. The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational forecasting mode, where the system will use operational seasonal forecasts from ECMWF. The results will be disseminated on the internet, and hopefully provide information that is valuable for users in data and model-poor regions of the world. The results of the preliminary assessment show that although forecasting skill decreases with increasing lead time, the value of forecasts does not necessarily decrease. The forecast requirements and response options of several water related sectors was

  15. Assessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, James C.; Wang, Quan J.; Robertson, David E.; Schepen, Andrew; Li, Ming; Michael, Kelvin

    2017-11-01

    Despite an increasing availability of skilful long-range streamflow forecasts, many water agencies still rely on simple resampled historical inflow sequences (stochastic scenarios) to plan operations over the coming year. We assess a recently developed forecasting system called forecast guided stochastic scenarios (FoGSS) as a skilful alternative to standard stochastic scenarios for the Australian continent. FoGSS uses climate forecasts from a coupled ocean-land-atmosphere prediction system, post-processed with the method of calibration, bridging and merging. Ensemble rainfall forecasts force a monthly rainfall-runoff model, while a staged hydrological error model quantifies and propagates hydrological forecast uncertainty through forecast lead times. FoGSS is able to generate ensemble streamflow forecasts in the form of monthly time series to a 12-month forecast horizon. FoGSS is tested on 63 Australian catchments that cover a wide range of climates, including 21 ephemeral rivers. In all perennial and many ephemeral catchments, FoGSS provides an effective alternative to resampled historical inflow sequences. FoGSS generally produces skilful forecasts at shorter lead times ( < 4 months), and transits to climatology-like forecasts at longer lead times. Forecasts are generally reliable and unbiased. However, FoGSS does not perform well in very dry catchments (catchments that experience zero flows more than half the time in some months), sometimes producing strongly negative forecast skill and poor reliability. We attempt to improve forecasts through the use of (i) ESP rainfall forcings, (ii) different rainfall-runoff models, and (iii) a Bayesian prior to encourage the error model to return climatology forecasts in months when the rainfall-runoff model performs poorly. Of these, the use of the prior offers the clearest benefit in very dry catchments, where it moderates strongly negative forecast skill and reduces bias in some instances. However, the prior does not

  16. Cloud archiving and data mining of High-Resolution Rapid Refresh forecast model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaylock, Brian K.; Horel, John D.; Liston, Samuel T.

    2017-12-01

    Weather-related research often requires synthesizing vast amounts of data that need archival solutions that are both economical and viable during and past the lifetime of the project. Public cloud computing services (e.g., from Amazon, Microsoft, or Google) or private clouds managed by research institutions are providing object data storage systems potentially appropriate for long-term archives of such large geophysical data sets. We illustrate the use of a private cloud object store developed by the Center for High Performance Computing (CHPC) at the University of Utah. Since early 2015, we have been archiving thousands of two-dimensional gridded fields (each one containing over 1.9 million values over the contiguous United States) from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) data assimilation and forecast modeling system. The archive is being used for retrospective analyses of meteorological conditions during high-impact weather events, assessing the accuracy of the HRRR forecasts, and providing initial and boundary conditions for research simulations. The archive is accessible interactively and through automated download procedures for researchers at other institutions that can be tailored by the user to extract individual two-dimensional grids from within the highly compressed files. Characteristics of the CHPC object storage system are summarized relative to network file system storage or tape storage solutions. The CHPC storage system is proving to be a scalable, reliable, extensible, affordable, and usable archive solution for our research.

  17. Uncertainty Assessment: Reservoir Inflow Forecasting with Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and HEC-HMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheng-Chi Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available During an extreme event, having accurate inflow forecasting with enough lead time helps reservoir operators decrease the impact of floods downstream. Furthermore, being able to efficiently operate reservoirs could help maximize flood protection while saving water for drier times of the year. This study combines ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts and a hydrological model to provide a 3-day reservoir inflow in the Shihmen Reservoir, Taiwan. A total of six historical typhoons were used for model calibration, validation, and application. An understanding of cascaded uncertainties from the numerical weather model through the hydrological model is necessary for a better use for forecasting. This study thus conducted an assessment of forecast uncertainty on magnitude and timing of peak and cumulative inflows. It found that using the ensemble-mean had less uncertainty than randomly selecting individual member. The inflow forecasts with shorter length of cumulative time had a higher uncertainty. The results showed that using the ensemble precipitation forecasts with the hydrological model would have the advantage of extra lead time and serve as a valuable reference for operating reservoirs.

  18. Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Natasha B.; Melcher, Cynthia P.

    2015-08-28

    The Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment was conducted in partnership with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The overall goals of the BLM Rapid Ecoregional Assessments (REAs) are to identify important ecosystems and wildlife habitats at broad spatial scales; identify where these resources are at risk from Change Agents, including development, wildfire, invasive species, disease and climate change; quantify cumulative effects of anthropogenic stressors; and assess current levels of risk to ecological resources across a range of spatial scales and jurisdictional boundaries by assessing all lands within an ecoregion. There are several components of the REAs. Management Questions, developed by the BLM and stakeholders for the ecoregion, identify the regionally significant information needed for addressing land-management responsibilities. Conservation Elements represent regionally significant species and ecological communities that are of management concern. Change Agents that currently affect or are likely to affect the condition of species and communities in the future are identified and assessed. REAs also identify areas that have high conservation potential that are referred to as “large intact areas.” At the ecoregion level, the ecological value of large intact areas is based on the assumption that because these areas have not been greatly altered by human activities (such as development), they are more likely to contain a variety of plant and animal communities and to be resilient and resistant to changes resulting from natural disturbances such as fire, insect outbreaks, and disease.

  19. Reference Scenario Forecasting: A New Approach to Transport Project Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen; Skougaard, Britt Zoëga

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Normally, transport project assessment is based upon a cost-benefit approach where evaluation criteria such as net present values are obtained. Recent research...... has however proved that substantial inaccuracies are present when obtaining the monetary input to the cost-benefit analysis, particularly as concerns the construction costs and demand forecasts. This paper proposes a new approach in order to assess these biases in a so-called reference scenario...

  20. Performance Assessment of Hydrological Models Considering Acceptable Forecast Error Threshold

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qianjin Dong

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available It is essential to consider the acceptable threshold in the assessment of a hydrological model because of the scarcity of research in the hydrology community and errors do not necessarily cause risk. Two forecast errors, including rainfall forecast error and peak flood forecast error, have been studied based on the reliability theory. The first order second moment (FOSM and bound methods are used to identify the reliability. Through the case study of the Dahuofang (DHF Reservoir, it is shown that the correlation between these two errors has great influence on the reliability index of hydrological model. In particular, the reliability index of the DHF hydrological model decreases with the increasing correlation. Based on the reliability theory, the proposed performance evaluation framework incorporating the acceptable forecast error threshold and correlation among the multiple errors can be used to evaluate the performance of a hydrological model and to quantify the uncertainties of a hydrological model output.

  1. An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dottori

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The development of methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is a key step to increase the usefulness of flood early warning systems and is crucial for effective emergency response and flood impact mitigation. Currently, flood early warning systems rarely include real-time components to assess potential impacts generated by forecasted flood events. To overcome this limitation, this study describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS. Daily streamflow forecasts produced for major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage and affected population, infrastructures and cities.An extensive testing of the operational procedure has been carried out by analysing the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia–Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-based and report-based flood extent data, while modelled estimates of economic damage and affected population are compared against ground-based estimations. Finally, we evaluate the skill of risk estimates derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations of probabilistic forecasts. Results highlight the potential of the real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

  2. Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Natasha B.; Means, Robert E.

    2013-01-01

    The overall goal of the Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment (REA) is to provide information that supports regional planning and analysis for the management of ecological resources. The REA provides an assessment of baseline ecological conditions, an evaluation of current risks from drivers of ecosystem change (including energy development, fire, and invasive species), and a predictive capacity for evaluating future risks (including climate change). Additionally, the REA may be used for identifying priority areas for conservation or restoration and for assessing cumulative effects of multiple land uses. The Wyoming Basin REA will address Management Questions developed by the Bureau of Land Management and other agency partners for 8 major biomes and 19 species or species assemblages. The maps developed for addressing Management Questions will be integrated into overall maps of landscape-level ecological values and risks. The maps can be used to address the goals of the REA at a number of levels: for individual species, species assemblages, aquatic and terrestrial systems, and for the entire ecoregion. This allows flexibility in how the products of the REA are compiled to inform planning and management actions across a broad range of spatial scales.

  3. Monitoring and Forecasting Reference Evapotranspiration for Food Security Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, S.; Hobbins, M.; McEvoy, D.; Husak, G. J.; Dewes, C.; McNally, A.; Huntington, J. L.; Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.

    2016-12-01

    Reference evapotranspiration (Ref ET; driven by temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation) and precipitation are the two most important climatic drivers of seasonal crop yields, which are directly associated with food security in several parts of the globe. In the last decade or so, significant strides have been made by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) team and collaborators, towards improving precipitation monitoring. However, efforts to improve Ref ET monitoring and forecasting have thus far lagged by comparison. This presentation describes ongoing activities of the FEWS NET team and collaborators towards the development and implementation of a near-real time Ref ET monitoring and forecasting system, focusing primarily on the food-insecure FEWS NET countries. Due to a lack of in situ observations of meteorological forcings, the Ref ET monitoring dataset, which is calculated using the Penman-Monteith formulation of the ASCE Standardized Reference ET, uses NASA's MERRA-2 atmospheric forcings and is spatially downscaled using a finer resolution climatology of the International Water Management Institute global PET dataset. Ref ET forecasts (up to 6 months lead time) are calculated using seasonal climate forecasts from NCEP's CFSv2 and NASA's GEOS-5 models. Long-term (since early 1980s through 2015) evaluation of Ref ET monitoring and forecast datasets and the approach to provide operational updates of both datasets in near-real time, are summarized in this presentation. As a case study, the influence of improved Ref ET monitoring and Ref ET forecasts on crop yield estimates and food security outlooks in East Africa is also examined using the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index model. In summary, this presentation highlights the importance of monitoring and forecasting Ref ET for food security assessments and early warning.

  4. Uncertainty assessment via Bayesian revision of ensemble streamflow predictions in the operational river Rhine forecasting system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reggiani, P.; Renner, M.; Weerts, A.H.; Van Gelder, P.A.H.J.M.

    2009-01-01

    Ensemble streamflow forecasts obtained by using hydrological models with ensemble weather products are becoming more frequent in operational flow forecasting. The uncertainty of the ensemble forecast needs to be assessed for these products to become useful in forecasting operations. A comprehensive

  5. Comparison of streamflow prediction skills from NOAH-MP/RAPID, VIC/RAPID and SWAT toward an ensemble flood forecasting framework over large scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajib, M. A.; Tavakoly, A. A.; Du, L.; Merwade, V.; Lin, P.

    2015-12-01

    Considering the differences in how individual models represent physical processes for runoff generation and streamflow routing, use of ensemble output is desirable in an operational streamflow estimation and flood forecasting framework. To enable the use of ensemble streamflow, comparison of multiple hydrologic models at finer spatial resolution over a large domain is yet to be explored. The objective of this work is to compare streamflow prediction skills from three different land surface/hydrologic modeling frameworks: NOAH-MP/RAPID, VIC/RAPID and SWAT, over the Ohio River Basin with a drainage area of 491,000 km2. For a uniform comparison, all the three modeling frameworks share the same setup with common weather inputs, spatial resolution, and gauge stations being employed in the calibration procedure. The runoff output from NOAH-MP and VIC land surface models is routed through a vector-based river routing model named RAPID, that is set up on the high resolution NHDPlus reaches and catchments. SWAT model is used with its default tightly coupled surface-subsurface hydrology and channel routing components to obtain streamflow for each NHDPlus reach. Model simulations are performed in two modes, including: (i) hindcasting/calibration mode in which the models are calibrated against USGS daily streamflow observations at multiple locations, and (ii) validation mode in which the calibrated models are executed at 3-hourly time interval for historical flood events. In order to have a relative assessment on the model-specific nature of biases during storm events as well as dry periods, time-series of surface runoff and baseflow components at the specific USGS gauging locations are extracted from corresponding observed/simulated streamflow data using a recursive digital filter. The multi-model comparison presented here provides insights toward future model improvements and also serves as the first step in implementing an operational ensemble flood forecasting framework

  6. Performance assessment of models to forecast induced seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiemer, Stefan; Karvounis, Dimitrios; Zechar, Jeremy; Király, Eszter; Kraft, Toni; Pio Rinaldi, Antonio; Catalli, Flaminia; Mignan, Arnaud

    2015-04-01

    Managing and mitigating induced seismicity during reservoir stimulation and operation is a critical prerequisite for many GeoEnergy applications. We are currently developing and validating so called 'Adaptive Traffic Light Systems' (ATLS), fully probabilistic forecast models that integrate all relevant data on the fly into a time-dependent hazard and risk model. The combined model intrinsically considers both aleatory and model-uncertainties, the robustness of the forecast is maximized by using a dynamically update ensemble weighting. At the heart of the ATLS approach are a variety of forecast models that range from purely statistical models, such as flow-controlled Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models, to models that consider various physical interaction mechanism (e.g., pore pressure changes, dynamic and static stress transfer, volumetric strain changes). The automated re-calibration of these models on the fly given data imperfection, degrees of freedom, and time-constraints is a sizable challenge, as is the validation of the models for applications outside of their calibrated range (different settings, larger magnitudes, changes in physical processes etc.). Here we present an overview of the status of the model development, calibration and validation. We also demonstrate how such systems can contribute to a quantitative risk assessment and mitigation of induced seismicity in a wide range of applications and time scales.

  7. Latin America wind market assessment. Forecast 2013-2022

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-10-15

    Wind Power Activities by Country: Developers/Owners, Wind Plant Sizes, Wind Turbines Deployed, Commissioning Dates, Market Share, and Capacity Forecasts Latin American markets are a subject of intense interest from the global wind industry. Wind plant construction across Latin America is modest compared to the more established markets like the United States, Europe, and China, but it is an emerging market that is taking off at a rapid pace. The region has become the hottest alternative growth market for the wind energy industry at a time when growth rates in other markets are flat due to a variety of policy and macroeconomic challenges. Globalization is driving sustainable economic growth in most Latin American countries, resulting in greater energy demand. Wind is increasingly viewed as a valuable and essential answer to increasing electricity generation across most markets in Latin America. Strong wind resources, coupled with today's sophisticated wind turbines, are providing cost-effective generation that is competitive with fossil fuel generation. Most Latin American countries also rely heavily on hydroelectricity, which balances well with variable wind generation. Navigant Research forecasts that if most wind plants under construction with planned commissioning go online as scheduled, annual wind power installations in Latin America will grow from nearly 2.2 GW in 2013 to 4.3 GW by 2022. This Navigant Research report provides a comprehensive view of the wind energy market dynamics at play in Latin America. It offers a country-by-country analysis, outlining the key energy policies and development opportunities and barriers and identifying which companies own operational wind plants and which wind turbine vendors supplied those projects. Market forecasts for wind power installations, capacity, and market share in Latin America, segmented by country and company, extend through 2022. The report also offers an especially close analysis of Brazil and Mexico

  8. Colorado Plateau Rapid Ecoregion Assessment Data Catalog

    Data.gov (United States)

    Bureau of Land Management, Department of the Interior — Datasets used in the analysis of the Colorado Plateau (COP) Rapid Ecoregion Assessment (REA).They can be downloaded via a layer package (lpk, similar to a zip file...

  9. Southern Great Plains rapid ecoregional assessment : Pre-assessment report

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The purpose of the Pre-Assessment Report for the Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecoregional Assessment (REA) is to document the selection process for and final list of...

  10. A quality assessment of the MARS crop yield forecasting system for the European Union

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Velde, Marijn; Bareuth, Bettina

    2015-04-01

    Timely information on crop production forecasts can become of increasing importance as commodity markets are more and more interconnected. Impacts across large crop production areas due to (e.g.) extreme weather and pest outbreaks can create ripple effects that may affect food prices and availability elsewhere. The MARS Unit (Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS), DG Joint Research Centre, European Commission, has been providing forecasts of European crop production levels since 1993. The operational crop production forecasting is carried out with the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (M-CYFS). The M-CYFS is used to monitor crop growth development, evaluate short-term effects of anomalous meteorological events, and provide monthly forecasts of crop yield at national and European Union level. The crop production forecasts are published in the so-called MARS bulletins. Forecasting crop yield over large areas in the operational context requires quality benchmarks. Here we present an analysis of the accuracy and skill of past crop yield forecasts of the main crops (e.g. soft wheat, grain maize), throughout the growing season, and specifically for the final forecast before harvest. Two simple benchmarks to assess the skill of the forecasts were defined as comparing the forecasts to 1) a forecast equal to the average yield and 2) a forecast using a linear trend established through the crop yield time-series. These reveal a variability in performance as a function of crop and Member State. In terms of production, the yield forecasts of 67% of the EU-28 soft wheat production and 80% of the EU-28 maize production have been forecast superior to both benchmarks during the 1993-2013 period. In a changing and increasingly variable climate crop yield forecasts can become increasingly valuable - provided they are used wisely. We end our presentation by discussing research activities that could contribute to this goal.

  11. Short Communication: Rapid Visual Assessment of Fish ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Short Communication: Rapid Visual Assessment of Fish Communities on Selected Reefs in the Bazaruto Archipelago. ... the Bazaruto reef types to provide a basis for their sound management and conservation. Keywords: Bazaruto Archipelago, Mozambique, ichthyofauna, fish surveys, underwater visual census, coral reefs.

  12. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    distribution functions. The latter have been placed and ultimately simulated on the inaccuracies of determining demand forecasts, i.e. leading to travel time savings and ticket revenues of the project. Finally, RSF makes use of scenario forecasting where trend scenarios such as economic growth and level...

  13. Rapid Hydraulic Assessment for Stream Restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-01

    governing equations are often used in conjunction with each other to define the flow characteristics of a given hydraulic phenomenon. The energy equation...Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. ERDC TN-EMRRP-SR-48 February 2016 Rapid Hydraulic Assessment for Stream Restoration...account the hydraulic conditions of the stream being restored. This is true whether the project involves a few feet of bank stabilization or several

  14. CFD Script for Rapid TPS Damage Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCloud, Peter

    2013-01-01

    This grid generation script creates unstructured CFD grids for rapid thermal protection system (TPS) damage aeroheating assessments. The existing manual solution is cumbersome, open to errors, and slow. The invention takes a large-scale geometry grid and its large-scale CFD solution, and creates a unstructured patch grid that models the TPS damage. The flow field boundary condition for the patch grid is then interpolated from the large-scale CFD solution. It speeds up the generation of CFD grids and solutions in the modeling of TPS damages and their aeroheating assessment. This process was successfully utilized during STS-134.

  15. An Assessment of the Skill of GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, Yoo-Geun; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Rienecker, Michele M.

    2013-01-01

    The seasonal forecast skill of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office coupled global climate model (CGCM) is evaluated based on an ensemble of 9-month lead forecasts for the period 1993 to 2010. The results from the current version (V2) of the CGCM consisting of the GEOS-5 AGM coupled to the MOM4 ocean model are compared with those from an earlier version (V1) in which the AGCM (the NSIPP model) was coupled to the Poseidon Ocean Model. It was found that the correlation skill of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts is generally better in V2, especially over the sub-tropical and tropical central and eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the improvement in skill in V2 mainly comes from better forecasts of the developing phase of ENSO from boreal spring to summer. The skill of ENSO forecasts initiated during the boreal winter season, however, shows no improvement in terms of correlation skill, and is in fact slightly worse in terms of root mean square error (RMSE). The degradation of skill is found to be due to an excessive ENSO amplitude. For V1, the ENSO amplitude is too strong in forecasts starting in boreal spring and summer, which causes large RMSE in the forecast. For V2, the ENSO amplitude is slightly stronger than that in observations and V1 for forecasts starting in boreal winter season. An analysis of the terms in the SST tendency equation, shows that this is mainly due to an excessive zonal advective feedback. In addition, V2 forecasts that are initiated during boreal winter season, exhibit a slower phase transition of El Nino, which is consistent with larger amplitude of ENSO after the ENSO peak season. It is found that this is due to weak discharge of equatorial Warm Water Volume (WWV). In both observations and V1, the discharge of equatorial WWV leads the equatorial geostrophic easterly current so as to damp the El Nino starting in January. This process is delayed by about 2 months in V2 due to the slower phase

  16. Forecast simulation of rapidly-intensified typhoon in the Eddy-Rich Northwest Pacific region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyeong Ok; Yuk, Jin-Hee; Jung, Kyung Tae; Kuh Kang, Suk

    2017-04-01

    The real-time typhoon predictions in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) are being distributed by various agencies (for example, KMA, JMA, JTWC, NMC, CWB, HKO and PAGASA). Currently the movement of the typhoon can be predicted with an error of less than 100 km in 48 hours, however it is difficult to the predict of the intensity of the typhoon especially the Rapidly Intensified (RI) Typhoons. The mean occurrence of RI typhoon amounts to 5.4 times a year during 39 years (1977-2015), occupying 21% of typhoons in NWP. Especially the RI typhoon in the Eddy-Rich Northwest Pacific (ER-NWP) occurred 1.8 times a year, covering 29% of typhoons in ER-NWP. A RI typhoon, NEPARTAK (T201601), occurred in July 2016. It was formed in Caroline Islands and moved northwest, straightly heading for Taiwan. However, at the beginning stage many forecasting agencies predicts as move to the Yellow Sea. The accuracy of prediction data of the Typhoon NEPARTAK (T201601) from KMA, JMA and JTWC was compared with the adjusted best-track data from Digital-Typhoon (JMA-RSMC). The sequential prediction data are summarized with 6-hour interval from 3th to 10th July 2016.The JMA prediction of the typhoon track and the JTWC predictions of the maximum wind speed were found to be best. The numerical simulations using WRF model forced with NCEP GFS prediction data and microwave SST is compared. The simulations using one domain (D1), two domains (D2) using a moving nest scheme, and with or without the spectral nudging (-SN) are compared. Comparison of the errors on the track shows the differences of 100 km in 48-hour prediction and200 km in 72-hour prediction on average. The best results on the track prediction are shown in the D2 case of WRF model. However, underestimation of the maximum wind speed of WRF prediction still exists, obviously requiring better understanding of RI-related processes to improve the model prediction.

  17. Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Arduino

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher flood frequency. Whilst current trends in extreme event statistics will be difficult to discern, conclusively, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of high floods in the 20th century for basins greater than 2x105 km2. There is also increasing that anthropogenic forcing of climate change may lead to an increased probability of extreme precipitation and, hence, of flooding. There is, therefore, major emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting systems in Europe, with significant European Community spending on research and development on prototype forecasting systems and flood risk management projects. This Special Issue synthesises the most relevant scientific and technological results presented at the International Conference on Flood Forecasting in Europe held in Rotterdam from 3-5 March 2003. During that meeting 150 scientists, forecasters and stakeholders from four continents assembled to present their work and current operational best practice and to discuss future directions of scientific and technological efforts in flood prediction and prevention. The papers presented at the conference fall into seven themes, as follows.

  18. The economic value of ensemble forecasts as a tool for risk assessment: From days to decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, T. N.

    2002-04-01

    Despite the revolutionary development of numerical weather and climate prediction (NWCP) in the second half of the last century, quantitative interaction between model developers and forecast customers has been rather limited. This is apparent in the diverse ways in which weather forecasts are assessed by these two groups: rootmean-square error of 500 hPa height on the one hand; pounds, euros or dollars saved on the other. These differences of approach are changing with the development of ensemble forecasting. Ensemble forecasts provide a qualitative tool for the assessment of weather and climate risk for a range of user applications, and on a range of time-scales, from days to decades. Examples of the commercial application of ensemble forecasting, from electricity generation, ship routeing, pollution modelling, weather-risk finance, disease prediction and crop yield modelling, are shown from all these time-scales. A generic user decision model is described that allows one to assess the potential economic value of numerical weather and climate forecasts for a range of customers. Using this, it is possible to relate analytically, potential economic value to conventional meteorological skill scores. A generalized meteorological measure of forecast skill is proposed which takes the distribution of customers into account. It is suggested that when customers' exposure to weather or climate risk can be quantified, such more generalized measures of skill should be used in assessing the performance of an operational NWCP system.

  19. Rapid Retrieval and Assimilation of Ground Based GPS-Met Observations at the NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory: Impact on Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutman, S.

    2003-04-01

    This year, 2003, marks the tenth anniversary of ground-based Global Positioning System meteorology. GPS-Met as we now know it started in 1992 with the definition of the essential techniques to retrieve integrated (total column) precipitable water vapor (IPW) from zenith-scaled neutral atmospheric signal delays (Bevis et al., 1992). It culminated with the GPS/Storm experiment in 1993, which demonstrated the ability to make IPW measurements with about the predicted accuracy under warm-weather conditions (Rocken et al., 1995). Since then, most of the major advances in GPS-Met data processing have been in the form of improved mapping functions (Niell, 1996), the estimation of GPS signal delays in an absolute (Duan et al., 1996) versus a relative sense (Rocken et al., 1993), and improved GPS satellite orbit accuracy with reduced latency (Fang et al., 1998). Experiments with other GPS-Met data processing techniques, such as the estimation of line-of-sight GPS signal delays using a double-difference to zero-difference technique described by Alber et al. (2000) and Braun et al. (2001) are noted, but lingering questions about the validity of this approach (Gutman, 2002), and not the potential value of a slant-path measurements per se, (as enumerated by MacDonald and Xie, 2001 or Ha et al., 2002) have thus far precluded its routine implementation at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Forecast Systems Laboratory (NOAA/FSL). Since 1994, NOAA/FSL has concentrated on evaluating the scientific and engineering bases of ground-based GPS-Met and assessing its utility for operational weather forecasting, climate monitoring, satellite calibration and validation, and improved differential GPS positioning and navigation. The term “rapid” in the title of this paper is defined as “available in time to be used for a specific application.” The requirement for high accuracy GPS-Met retrievals with lower latency is primarily driven by two factors: the trend toward

  20. Wind Resource Assessment and Forecast Planning with Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolus K. Rotich

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we built three types of artificial neural networks, namely: Feed forward networks, Elman networks and Cascade forward networks, for forecasting wind speeds and directions. A similar network topology was used for all the forecast horizons, regardless of the model type. All the models were then trained with real data of collected wind speeds and directions over a period of two years in the municipal of Puumala, Finland. Up to 70th percentile of the data was used for training, validation and testing, while 71–85th percentile was presented to the trained models for validation. The model outputs were then compared to the last 15% of the original data, by measuring the statistical errors between them. The feed forward networks returned the lowest errors for wind speeds. Cascade forward networks gave the lowest errors for wind directions; Elman networks returned the lowest errors when used for short term forecasting.

  1. Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment: Work Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Natasha B.; Garman, Steven L.; Walters, Annika; Ray, Andrea; Melcher, Cynthia P.; Wesner, Jeff S.; O’Donnell, Michael S.; Sherrill, Kirk R.; Babel, Nils C.; Bowen, Zachary H.

    2013-01-01

    The overall goal of the Rapid Ecoregional Assessments (REAs) being conducted for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is to provide information that supports regional planning and analysis for the management of ecological resources. The REA provides an assessment of baseline ecological conditions, an evaluation of current risks from drivers of ecosystem change, and a predictive capacity for evaluating future risks. The REA also may be used for identifying priority areas for conservation or restoration and for assessing the cumulative effects of a variety of land uses. There are several components of the REAs. Management Questions, developed by the BLM and partners for the ecoregion, identify the information needed for addressing land-management responsibilities. Conservation Elements represent regionally significant aquatic and terrestrial species and communities that are to be conserved and (or) restored. The REA also will evaluate major drivers of ecosystem change (Change Agents) currently affecting or likely to affect the status of Conservation Elements. We selected 8 major biomes and 19 species or species assemblages to be included as Conservation Elements. We will address the four primary Change Agents—development, fire, invasive species, and climate change—required for the REA. The purpose of the work plan for the Wyoming Basin REA is to document the selection process for, and final list of, Management Questions, Conservation Elements, and Change Agents. The work plan also presents the overall assessment framework that will be used to assess the status of Conservation Elements and answer Management Questions.

  2. Climate model forecast biases assessed with a perturbed physics ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulholland, David P.; Haines, Keith; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Wallom, David

    2017-09-01

    Perturbed physics ensembles have often been used to analyse long-timescale climate model behaviour, but have been used less often to study model processes on shorter timescales. We combine a transient perturbed physics ensemble with a set of initialised forecasts to deduce regional process errors present in the standard HadCM3 model, which cause the model to drift in the early stages of the forecast. First, it is shown that the transient drifts in the perturbed physics ensembles can be used to recover quantitatively the parameters that were perturbed. The parameters which exert most influence on the drifts vary regionally, but upper ocean mixing and atmospheric convective processes are particularly important on the 1-month timescale. Drifts in the initialised forecasts are then used to recover the `equivalent parameter perturbations', which allow identification of the physical processes that may be at fault in the HadCM3 representation of the real world. Most parameters show positive and negative adjustments in different regions, indicating that standard HadCM3 values represent a global compromise. The method is verified by correcting an unusually widespread positive bias in the strength of wind-driven ocean mixing, with forecast drifts reduced in a large number of areas as a result. This method could therefore be used to improve the skill of initialised climate model forecasts by reducing model biases through regional adjustments to physical processes, either by tuning or targeted parametrisation refinement. Further, such regionally tuned models might also significantly outperform standard climate models, with global parameter configurations, in longer-term climate studies.

  3. Transition, Training, and Assessment of Multispectral Composite Imagery in Support of the NWS Aviation Forecast Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuell, Kevin; Jedlovec, Gary; Leroy, Anita; Schultz, Lori

    2015-01-01

    The NASA/Short-term Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program works closely with NOAA/NWS weather forecasters to transition unique satellite data and capabilities into operations in order to assist with nowcasting and short-term forecasting issues. Several multispectral composite imagery (i.e. RGB) products were introduced to users in the early 2000s to support hydrometeorology and aviation challenges as well as incident support. These activities lead to SPoRT collaboration with the GOES-R Proving Ground efforts where instruments such as MODIS (Aqua, Terra) and S-NPP/VIIRS imagers began to be used as near-realtime proxies to future capabilities of the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). One of the composite imagery products introduced to users was the Night-time Microphysics RGB, originally developed by EUMETSAT. SPoRT worked to transition this imagery to NWS users, provide region-specific training, and assess the impact of the imagery to aviation forecast needs. This presentation discusses the method used to interact with users to address specific aviation forecast challenges, including training activities undertaken to prepare for a product assessment. Users who assessed the multispectral imagery ranged from southern U.S. inland and coastal NWS weather forecast offices (WFOs), to those in the Rocky Mountain Front Range region and West Coast, as well as highlatitude forecasters of Alaska. These user-based assessments were documented and shared with the satellite community to support product developers and the broad users of new generation satellite data.

  4. Benchmarking an operational procedure for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dottori, Francesco; Salamon, Peter; Kalas, Milan; Bianchi, Alessandra; Feyen, Luc

    2016-04-01

    The development of real-time methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is crucial to improve emergency response and mitigate flood impacts. This work describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on the flood predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). The daily forecasts produced for the major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations, based on the hydro-meteorological dataset of EFAS. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in near real-time in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, affected population, infrastructures and cities. An extensive testing of the operational procedure is carried out using the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-derived flood footprints, while ground-based estimations of economic damage and affected population is compared against modelled estimates. We evaluated the skill of flood hazard and risk estimations derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations. The assessment includes a comparison of several alternative approaches to produce and present the information content, in order to meet the requests of EFAS users. The tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

  5. Assessing the need for better forecasting and observability of pv

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

    2017-01-01

    In its review of the challenges and opportunities associated with massive deployment of solar PV generation, the Grid integration working group of the ETIP PV identified forecasting and observability as critical technologies for the planning and operation of the power system with large PV...... penetration. In this white paper ETIP PV set out to spell out in more details what features are needed from these technologies and what is the state of the art....

  6. Moving beyond the cost-loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-06-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. Numerous studies have shown that ensemble forecasts are of higher quality than deterministic ones. Many studies also conclude that decisions based on ensemble rather than deterministic forecasts lead to better decisions in the context of flood mitigation. Hence, it is believed that ensemble forecasts possess a greater economic and social value for both decision makers and the general population. However, the vast majority of, if not all, existing hydro-economic studies rely on a cost-loss ratio framework that assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. To overcome this important flaw, this study borrows from economics and evaluates the economic value of early warning flood systems using the well-known Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) utility function, which explicitly accounts for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker. This new framework allows for the full exploitation of the information related to a forecasts' uncertainty, making it especially suited for the economic assessment of ensemble or probabilistic forecasts. Rather than comparing deterministic and ensemble forecasts, this study focuses on comparing different types of ensemble forecasts. There are multiple ways of assessing and representing forecast uncertainty. Consequently, there exist many different means of building an ensemble forecasting system for future streamflow. One such possibility is to dress deterministic forecasts using the statistics of past error forecasts. Such dressing methods are popular among operational agencies because of their simplicity and intuitiveness. Another approach is the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts for precipitation and temperature, which are then provided as inputs to one or many hydrological model(s). In this study, three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared: simple statistically dressed

  7. Rapid onsite assessment of spore viability.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Branda, Steven; Lane, Todd W.; VanderNoot, Victoria A.; Gaucher, Sara P.; Jokerst, Amanda S.

    2005-12-01

    This one year LDRD addresses problems of threat assessment and restoration of facilities following a bioterror incident like the incident that closed down mail facilities in late 2001. Facilities that are contaminated with pathogenic spores such as B. anthracis spores must be shut down while they are treated with a sporicidal agent and the effectiveness of the treatment is ascertained. This process involves measuring the viability of spore test strips, laid out in a grid throughout the facility; the CDC accepted methodologies require transporting the samples to a laboratory and carrying out a 48 hr outgrowth experiment. We proposed developing a technique that will ultimately lead to a fieldable microfluidic device that can rapidly assess (ideally less than 30 min) spore viability and effectiveness of sporicidal treatment, returning facilities to use in hours not days. The proposed method will determine viability of spores by detecting early protein synthesis after chemical germination. During this year, we established the feasibility of this approach and gathered preliminary results that should fuel a future more comprehensive effort. Such a proposal is currently under review with the NIH. Proteomic signatures of Bacillus spores and vegetative cells were assessed by both slab gel electrophoresis as well as microchip based gel electrophoresis employing sensitive laser-induced fluorescence detection. The conditions for germination using a number of chemical germinants were evaluated and optimized and the time course of protein synthesis was ascertained. Microseparations were carried out using both viable spores and spores inactivated by two different methods. A select number of the early synthesis proteins were digested into peptides for analysis by mass spectrometry.

  8. Economic assessment of flood forecasts for a risk-averse decision-maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier-Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-04-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. It has also been suggested in past studies that ensemble forecasts might possess a greater economic value than deterministic forecasts. However, the vast majority of recent hydro-economic literature is based on the cost-loss ratio framework, which might be appealing for its simplicity and intuitiveness. One important drawback of the cost-loss ratio is that it implicitly assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. By definition, a risk-neutral individual is indifferent to forecasts' sharpness: as long as forecasts agree with observations on average, the risk-neutral individual is satisfied. A risk-averse individual, however, is sensitive to the level of precision (sharpness) of forecasts. This person is willing to pay to increase his or her certainty about future events. In fact, this is how insurance companies operate: the probability of seeing one's house burn down is relatively low, so the expected cost related to such event is also low. However, people are willing to buy insurance to avoid the risk, however small, of loosing everything. Similarly, in a context where people's safety and property is at stake, the typical decision maker is more risk-averse than risk-neutral. Consequently, the cost-loss ratio is not the most appropriate tool to assess the economic value of flood forecasts. This presentation describes a more realistic framework for assessing the economic value of such forecasts for flood mitigation purposes. Borrowing from economics, the Constant Absolute Risk Aversion utility function (CARA) is the central tool of this new framework. Utility functions allow explicitly accounting for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker and fully exploiting the information related to ensemble forecasts' uncertainty. Three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared in terms of quality (comparison with

  9. The european flood alert system EFAS – Part 2: Statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Bartholmes

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Since 2005 the European Flood Alert System (EFAS has been producing probabilistic hydrological forecasts in pre-operational mode at the Joint Research Centre (JRC of the European Commission. EFAS aims at increasing preparedness for floods in trans-national European river basins by providing medium-range deterministic and probabilistic flood forecasting information, from 3 to 10 days in advance, to national hydro-meteorological services.

    This paper is Part 2 of a study presenting the development and skill assessment of EFAS. In Part 1, the scientific approach adopted in the development of the system has been presented, as well as its basic principles and forecast products. In the present article, two years of existing operational EFAS forecasts are statistically assessed and the skill of EFAS forecasts is analysed with several skill scores. The analysis is based on the comparison of threshold exceedances between proxy-observed and forecasted discharges. Skill is assessed both with and without taking into account the persistence of the forecasted signal during consecutive forecasts.

    Skill assessment approaches are mostly adopted from meteorology and the analysis also compares probabilistic and deterministic aspects of EFAS. Furthermore, the utility of different skill scores is discussed and their strengths and shortcomings illustrated. The analysis shows the benefit of incorporating past forecasts in the probability analysis, for medium-range forecasts, which effectively increases the skill of the forecasts.

  10. Final rapid reactivation project environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-02-10

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has prepared an environmental assessment (EA) for the Rapid Reactivation Project at Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico. The EA analyzes the potential effects of a proposal to increase production of neutron generators from the current capability of 600 units per year up to 2,000 units per year. The project would use existing buildings and infrastructure to the maximum extent possible to meet the additional production needs. The increased production levels would necessitate modifications and additions involving a total area of approximately 26,290 gross square feet at Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico, Technical Area 1. Additional production equipment would be procured and installed. The no-action alternative would be to continue production activities at the current capability of 600 units per year. The EA analyzes effects on health, safety, and air quality, resulting from construction and operation and associated cumulative effects. A detailed description of the proposed action and its environmental consequences is presented in the EA.

  11. Rapid assessment of avoidable blindness in Bhutan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepcha, Nor Tshering; Chettri, Chandra Kumar; Getshen, Kunzang; Rai, Bhim Bahadur; Ramaswamy, Shamanna Bindiganavale; Saibaba, Saravanan; Nirmalan, Praveen Kumar; Demarchis, Emilia Hansson; Tabin, Geoffrey; Morley, Michael; Morley, Katharine

    2013-08-01

    To conduct a rapid assessment of avoidable blindness survey in Bhutan to obtain estimates of blindness, visual impairment, and cataract surgical coverage, outcomes and barriers among persons ≥50 years old. A total of 82 clusters of 50 people ≥50 years were selected using probability proportionate to size sampling. Eligible participants were selected from households using compact segment sampling, and underwent ophthalmic examination for visual acuity, followed by penlight and direct ophthalmoscopy. Participants with cataract were interviewed regarding surgical outcomes and barriers to surgery. Overall, 4046 of 4100 persons enumerated (98.7%) underwent ophthalmic examination. Adjusting for age and sex, the prevalence of bilaterally blind persons with available correction was 1.5% (95% confidence interval 1.09-1.89). Most blindness (67.1%) and severe visual impairment (74.1%) resulted from cataract, but 22.1% resulted from posterior segment pathology. Cataract surgical coverage for bilaterally blind persons was 72.7%. Almost 90% of patients reported moderate or good satisfaction, despite poor surgical outcomes in 23.6%. The prevalence of blindness in people aged ≥50 years in Bhutan was relatively low when compared with neighboring countries and World Health Organization sub-region estimates. Areas for improvement include community outreach, surgical outcomes, and posterior segment diseases.

  12. Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program rapid accident assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chester, C.V.

    1990-08-01

    This report develops a scheme for the rapid assessment of a release of toxic chemicals resulting from an accident in one of the most chemical weapon demilitarization plants or storage areas. The system uses such inputs as chemical and pressure sensors monitoring the plant and reports of accidents radioed to the Emergency Operations Center by work parties or monitoring personnel. A size of release can be estimated from previous calculations done in the risk analysis, from back calculation from an open-air chemical sensor measurement, or from an estimated percentage of the inventory of agent at the location of the release. Potential consequences of the estimated release are calculated from real-time meteorological data, surrounding population data, and properties of the agent. In addition to the estimated casualties, area coverage and no-death contours vs time would be calculated. Accidents are assigned to one of four categories: community emergencies, which are involve a threat to off-site personnel; on-post emergencies, which involve a threat only to on-site personnel; advisory, which involves a potential for threat to on-site personnel; and chemical occurrence, which can produce an abnormal operating condition for the plant but no immediate threat to on-site personnel. 9 refs., 20 tabs.

  13. Rapid forecasting of tsunami runup heights from 2-D numerical simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. H. Choi

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available We propose a method to compute tsunami runup heights that is based on an integration of numerical, 2-D shallow-water modelling and an analytical, 1-D long-wave runup theory. This approach provides a faster forecast of tsunami runup heights than a complicated coastal inundation model. Through simulations of potential tsunami scenarios, this approach can also be applied to long-term tsunami prediction. We tested the model by simulating the historical event in the East (Japan Sea and found that the estimates of runup heights agreed well with the available observations.

  14. A Response Function Approach for Rapid Far-Field Tsunami Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolkova, Elena; Nicolsky, Dmitry; Wang, Dailin

    2017-08-01

    Predicting tsunami impacts at remote coasts largely relies on tsunami en-route measurements in an open ocean. In this work, these measurements are used to generate instant tsunami predictions in deep water and near the coast. The predictions are generated as a response or a combination of responses to one or more tsunameters, with each response obtained as a convolution of real-time tsunameter measurements and a pre-computed pulse response function (PRF). Practical implementation of this method requires tables of PRFs in a 3D parameter space: earthquake location-tsunameter-forecasted site. Examples of hindcasting the 2010 Chilean and the 2011 Tohoku-Oki tsunamis along the US West Coast and beyond demonstrated high accuracy of the suggested technology in application to trans-Pacific seismically generated tsunamis.

  15. Assessing public forecasts to encourage accountability: The case of MIT's Technology Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Jeffrey

    2017-01-01

    Although high degrees of reliability have been found for many types of forecasts purportedly due to the existence of accountability, public forecasts of technology are rarely assessed and continue to have a poor reputation. This paper's analysis of forecasts made by MIT's Technology Review provides a rare assessment and thus a means to encourage accountability. It first shows that few of the predicted "breakthrough technologies" currently have large markets. Only four have sales greater than $10 billion while eight technologies not predicted by Technology Review have sales greater than $10 billion including three with greater than $100 billion and one other with greater than $50 billion. Second, possible reasons for these poor forecasts are then discussed including an over emphasis on the science-based process of technology change, sometimes called the linear model of innovation. Third, this paper describes a different model of technology change, one that is widely used by private companies and that explains the emergence of those technologies that have greater than $10 billion in sales. Fourth, technology change and forecasts are discussed in terms of cognitive biases and mental models.

  16. Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecoregional Assessment: pre-assessment report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assal, Timothy J.; Melcher, Cynthia P.; Carr, Natasha B.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of the Pre-Assessment Report for the Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecoregional Assessment (REA) is to document the selection process for and final list of Conservation Elements, Change Agents, and Management Questions developed during Phase I. The overall goal of the REAs being conducted for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is to provide information that supports regional planning and analysis for the management of ecological resources. The REA provides an assessment of baseline ecological conditions, an evaluation of current risks from drivers of ecosystem change, and a predictive capacity for evaluating future risks. The REA also may be used for identifying priority areas for conservation or restoration and for assessing the cumulative effects of a variety of land uses. There are several components of the REAs. Management Questions, developed by the BLM and partners for the ecoregion, identify the information needed for addressing land-management responsibilities. Conservation Elements represent regionally significant terrestrial and aquatic species and communities that are to be conserved and (or) restored. For each Conservation Element, key ecological attributes will be evaluated to determine the status of each species and community. The REA also will evaluate major drivers of ecosystem change, or Change Agents, currently affecting or likely to affect the status of Conservation Elements in the future. The relationships between Change Agents and key ecological attributes will be summarized using conceptual models. The REA process is a two-phase process. Phase I (pre-assessment) includes developing and finalizing the lists of priority Management Questions, Conservation Elements, and Change Agents, culminating in the REA Pre-Assessment Report.

  17. Spatial-temporal reproducibility assessment of global seasonal forecasting system version 5 model for Dam Inflow forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, S.; Suh, A. S.; Soohee, H.

    2016-12-01

    The GloSea5(Global Seasonal forecasting system version 5) is provided and operated by the KMA(Korea Meteorological Administration). GloSea5 provides Forecast(FCST) and Hindcast(HCST) data and its horizontal resolution is about 60km (0.83° x 0.56°) in the mid-latitudes. In order to use this data in watershed-scale water management, GloSea5 needs spatial-temporal downscaling. As such, statistical downscaling was used to correct for systematic biases of variables and to improve data reliability. HCST data is provided in ensemble format, and the highest statistical correlation(R2 = 0.60, RMSE = 88.92, NSE = 0.57) of ensemble precipitation was reported for the Yongdam Dam watershed on the #6 grid. Additionally, the original GloSea5(600.1mm) showed the greatest difference(-26.5%) compared to observations(816.1mm) during the summer flood season. However, downscaled GloSea5 was shown to have only a ?3.1% error rate. Most of the underestimated results corresponded to precipitation levels during the flood season and the downscaled GloSea5 showed important results of restoration in precipitation levels. Per the analysis results of spatial autocorrelation using seasonal Moran's I, the spatial distribution was shown to be statistically significant. These results can improve the uncertainty of original GloSea5 and substantiate its spatial-temporal accuracy and validity. The spatial-temporal reproducibility assessment will play a very important role as basic data for watershed-scale water management.

  18. Integral assessment of floodplains as a basis for spatially-explicit flood loss forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zischg, Andreas Paul; Mosimann, Markus; Weingartner, Rolf

    2016-04-01

    flood scenario, the resulting number of affected residents, houses and therefore the losses are computed. This integral assessment leads to a hydro-economical characterisation of each floodplain. Based on that, a transfer function between discharge forecast and damages can be elaborated. This transfer function describes the relationship between predicted peak discharge, flood volume and the number of exposed houses, residents and the related losses. It also can be used to downscale the regional discharge forecast to a local level loss forecast. In addition, a dynamic map delimiting the probable flooded areas on the basis of the forecasted discharge can be prepared. The predicted losses and the delimited flooded areas provide a complementary information for assessing the need of preventive measures on one hand on the long-term timescale and on the other hand 6h-24h in advance of a predicted flood. To conclude, we can state that the transfer function offers the possibility for an integral assessment of floodplains as a basis for spatially-explicit flood loss forecasts. The procedure has been developed and tested in the alpine and pre-alpine environment of the Aare river catchment upstream of Bern, Switzerland.

  19. The Analytical-Practical Instrumentarium for Assessing and Forecasting the Liquidity of Banking Institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karpets Olga S.

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The article is concerned with development of a complex of economic-mathematical methods and models for assessing and forecasting the level of liquidity of banks. In order to achieve this objective, a cluster analysis of the banks of Ukraine by the liquidity level has been carried out; a correlation analysis has been applied to identify the factors that impact the level of bank liquidity the most; with use of the correlative regression analysis techniques the model of dependence of bank’s liquidity from the adequacy of capital and the ratio of credits to deposits, dynamic models for forecasting assets and the bank’s lending volumes have been built. As a result of applying these methods and the models built, a forecast of assets and bank lending volumes has been completed, and the liquidity forecasting values have been calculated. Based on the forecast, the bank can make decisions whether it is feasible to implement certain measures to improve its liquidity and, ultimately, to ensure its financial sustainability and stability.

  20. Assessment of marine weather forecasts over the Indian sector of Southern Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gera, Anitha; Mahapatra, D. K.; Sharma, Kuldeep; Prakash, Satya; Mitra, A. K.; Iyengar, G. R.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Anilkumar, N.

    2017-09-01

    The Southern Ocean (SO) is one of the important regions where significant processes and feedbacks of the Earth's climate take place. Expeditions to the SO provide useful data for improving global weather/climate simulations and understanding many processes. Some of the uncertainties in these weather/climate models arise during the first few days of simulation/forecast and do not grow much further. NCMRWF issued real-time five day weather forecasts of mean sea level pressure, surface winds, winds at 500 hPa & 850 hPa and rainfall, daily to NCAOR to provide guidance for their expedition to Indian sector of SO during the austral summer of 2014-2015. Evaluation of the skill of these forecasts indicates possible error growth in the atmospheric model at shorter time scales. The error growth is assessed using the model analysis/reanalysis, satellite data and observations made during the expedition. The observed variability of sub-seasonal rainfall associated with mid-latitude systems is seen to exhibit eastward propagations and are well reproduced in the model forecasts. All cyclonic disturbances including the sub-polar lows and tropical cyclones that occurred during this period were well captured in the model forecasts. Overall, this model performs reasonably well over the Indian sector of the SO in medium range time scale.

  1. Wind Energy Potential Assessment and Forecasting Research Based on the Data Pre-Processing Technique and Swarm Intelligent Optimization Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhilong Wang

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Accurate quantification and characterization of a wind energy potential assessment and forecasting is significant to optimal wind farm design, evaluation and scheduling. However, wind energy potential assessment and forecasting remain difficult and challenging research topics at present. Traditional wind energy assessment and forecasting models usually ignore the problem of data pre-processing as well as parameter optimization, which leads to low accuracy. Therefore, this paper aims to assess the potential of wind energy and forecast the wind speed in four locations in China based on the data pre-processing technique and swarm intelligent optimization algorithms. In the assessment stage, the cuckoo search (CS algorithm, ant colony (AC algorithm, firefly algorithm (FA and genetic algorithm (GA are used to estimate the two unknown parameters in the Weibull distribution. Then, the wind energy potential assessment results obtained by three data-preprocessing approaches are compared to recognize the best data-preprocessing approach and process the original wind speed time series. While in the forecasting stage, by considering the pre-processed wind speed time series as the original data, the CS and AC optimization algorithms are adopted to optimize three neural networks, namely, the Elman neural network, back propagation neural network, and wavelet neural network. The comparison results demonstrate that the new proposed wind energy assessment and speed forecasting techniques produce promising assessments and predictions and perform better than the single assessment and forecasting components.

  2. A tool for assessing the quality of the Mediterranean cyclone forecast: a numerical index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Picornell

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Cyclones affecting the Mediterranean region, sometimes related to severe weather events, are often not well represented enough in numerical model predictions.

    Assessing the quality of the forecast of these cyclonic structures would be a significant advance in better knowing the goodness of the weather forecast in this region, and particularly the quality of predictions of high impact phenomena.

    In order to estimate the cyclone forecast uncertainty in operational models, in this work we compare two cyclone databases for the period 2006–2007: one from the operational analyses of the T799 ECMWF deterministic model; and the other from the forecasts provided by the same model in three ranges, H+12, H+24, and H+48. The skill of the model to detect cyclones and its accuracy in describing their features are assessed.

    An index is presented as an indicator of the quality of the prediction, derived from the frequency distribution of errors in the prediction of four characteristics of the cyclone: position, central pressure value, geostrophic circulation, and domain. Some sub-indexes are derived to verify each of the variables separately in order to analyse the most frequent sources of error. Other sub-indexes are also defined to indicate possible biases in the numerical prediction model.

  3. A seamless global hydrological monitoring and forecasting system for water resources assessment and hydrological hazard early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, Justin; He, Xiaogang; Wood, Eric; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Zhan, Wang; Peng, Liqing

    2017-04-01

    Sustainable management of water resources and mitigation of the impacts of hydrological hazards are becoming ever more important at large scales because of inter-basin, inter-country and inter-continental connections in water dependent sectors. These include water resources management, food production, and energy production, whose needs must be weighed against the water needs of ecosystems and preservation of water resources for future generations. The strains on these connections are likely to increase with climate change and increasing demand from burgeoning populations and rapid development, with potential for conflict over water. At the same time, network connections may provide opportunities to alleviate pressures on water availability through more efficient use of resources such as trade in water dependent goods. A key constraint on understanding, monitoring and identifying solutions to increasing competition for water resources and hazard risk is the availability of hydrological data for monitoring and forecasting water resources and hazards. We present a global online system that provides continuous and consistent water products across time scales, from the historic instrumental period, to real-time monitoring, short-term and seasonal forecasts, and climate change projections. The system is intended to provide data and tools for analysis of historic hydrological variability and trends, water resources assessment, monitoring of evolving hazards and forecasts for early warning, and climate change scale projections of changes in water availability and extreme events. The system is particular useful for scientists and stakeholders interested in regions with less available in-situ data, and where forecasts have the potential to help decision making. The system is built on a database of high-resolution climate data from 1950 to present that merges available observational records with bias-corrected reanalysis and satellite data, which then drives a coupled land

  4. Rapid Geriatric Assessment of Hip Fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanker, Jesse; Duque, Gustavo

    2017-08-01

    A comprehensive geriatric assessment, combined with a battery of imaging and blood tests, should be able to identify those hip fracture patients who are at higher risk of short- and long-term complications. This comprehensive assessment should be followed by the implementation of a comprehensive multidimensional care plan aimed to prevent negative outcomes in the postoperative period (short and long term), thus assuring a safe and prompt functional recovery while also preventing future falls and fractures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Incorporating Ensemble-based Probabilistic Forecasts into a Campaign Simulation in the Weather Impact Assessment Tool (WIAT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    STW Strike Warfare UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicle VBA Visual Basic for Applications WIAT Weather Impact Assessment Tool WIAT* Weather Impact...increased budget and research resources will be devoted to the continued development of probabilistic forecasting techniques and products. Deterministic...managing resources . The ability of the forecaster to accurately predict the most likely evolution of weather parameters and to communicate a qualitative

  6. National Coal Utilization Assessment: a preliminary assessment of coal utilizaton in the South. [Southern USA to 2020; forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, L. B.; Bjornstad, D. J.; Boercker, F. D.

    1978-01-01

    Some of the major problems and issues related to coal development and use in the South are identified and assessed assuming a base-case energy scenario for the next 45 years. This scenario assumes a midrange of coal use and a relatively high rate of nuclear use over the forecast period. The potential impacts from coal development and use are significant, particularly in the 1990-2020 time period. Practically all available sites suitable for power plant development in the assessment will be utilized by 2020. Overall, sulfur dioxide will be well below the annual primary standard; however, several local hot-spot areas were identified. In addition, sulfate concentrations will be increased significantly, particularly over Virginia, West Virginia, and northern Kentucky. Coal mining is expected to affect 6 of the 12 major ecological regions. Coal mining will lead to increased average suspended sediment concentrations in some river basins, and special measures will be required to control acid discharges from active mines in pyritic regions. The increased mining of coal and subsequent sulfur dioxide increases from its combustion may also give rise to a land-use confrontation with food and fiber production. Potential health effects from exposure to sulfur dioxide and sulfates are expected to increase rapidly in several areas, particularly in parts of Kentucky, Maryland, District of Columbia, and Georgia. Regional social costs should be relatively low, although some site-specific costs are expected to be very high. Alternative energy technologies, careful siting selection, and deployment of environmental control technologies and operating policies will be required to reduce or mitigate these potential impacts.

  7. Rapid Depression Assessment in Geriatric Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grossberg, George T; Beck, David; Zaidi, Syed Noman Y

    2017-08-01

    Depression is common in geriatric patients, especially in those with multiple comorbidities and polypharmacy. Depression in older adults is often underdiagnosed and undertreated. Initial screening for depression can easily be accomplished in the waiting room. Yet the clinical interview still remains the gold standard for diagnosing geriatric depression. Key components of the clinical interview are observant watching of the patient for the subtle signs of depression. Clinical interview should be done with sensitivity to the importance of privacy. Illicit substances and medical conditions may significantly contribute. Suicide assessment should be done in a step wise manner. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Risks assessment and forecasting long time rows of economic indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gennadiy Pavlovich Bystray

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews main approaches to risk assessment. The authors accented attention on the nonlinear approach to the theory of risks. It is proposed to define economic risk as the probability of threats that could have material adverse effect on the economic system under study and to change its current state. The method and the program product designed by the authors integrate a wide range of indicators of economic and financial activities at the regional level in the program-technical complex. This paper describes a new method for assessing synergistic and prediction of risk over long timerows ofeconomicindicators at theregional level, including methods of nonlinear and chaotic dynamics, enabling a pseudo-phase and phase portraits, to determine the volatility, to calculate fractal characteristics and predict the behavior of socio-economic indicators with modernized method of Hurst, to model based on recovery probability distribution function of nonequilibrium potential function, to determinethelocal and global stability of theregionaleconomy and to identify risks as the probability of the threats of an economic nature.

  9. Risk Informed Design Using Integrated Vehicle Rapid Assessment Tools Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A successful proof of concept was performed in FY 2012 integrating the Envision tool for parametric estimates of vehicle mass and the Rapid Response Risk Assessment...

  10. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change provides data and information on global and regional land cover change in raster format for...

  11. Developing integrated performance assessment and forecasting the level of financial and economic enterprise stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khudyakova T.A.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem of assessing and forecasting the level of financial and economic enterprise stability through the integrated indicators development. Currently, many enterprises operate under variable external environment, which imposes a strict requirement to consider this uncertainty. For the evaluation, analysis and prediction of the sustainability of the enterprise in the conditions of crisis we believe it possible and necessary to use the apparatus of probability theory and mathematical statistics. This problem solution will improve quantitative assessing the financial and economic stability level, forecasting possible scenarios of the enterprise development and, therefore, based on the proactive management principles and adaptation processes will greatly increase their effective functioning, as well as reduce bankruptcy probability.

  12. READS: the rapid electronic assessment documentation system.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Hickey, Ann

    2012-12-13

    Patient documentation is time consuming and can detract from care. The authors report a novel computer programme that manipulates routinely collected information to quantify nursing workload, along with the reason for admission, functional status, estimates of in-hospital mortality and life expectancy. The programme stores information in a database, and produces a print-out in a situation\\/background\\/assessment\\/recommendation (SBAR) format. The average time taken to enter 629 patient encounters was 6.6 minutes. Pain was the most common presentation for low workload patients, while high workload patients often presented with altered mental status and reduced mobility. There was only a modest correlation between the risk of death and nursing workload. The programme measures nursing workload without further paperwork, and improves routine documentation with a legible brief report that is automatically generated. This report can be shared and provides data that is immediately available for day-to-day care, audit, quality control and service planning.

  13. Assessing Applications of GPM and IMERG Passive Microwave Rain Rates in Modeling and Operational Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavodsky, B.; Le Roy, A.; Smith, M. R.; Case, J.

    2016-12-01

    In support of NASA's recently launched GPM `core' satellite, the NASA-SPoRT project is leveraging experience in research-to-operations transitions and training to provide feedback on the operational utility of GPM products. Thus far, SPoRT has focused on evaluating the Level 2 GPROF passive microwave and IMERG rain rate estimates. Formal evaluations with end-users have occurred, as well as internal evaluations of the datasets. One set of end users for these products is National Weather Service Forecast Offices (WFOs) and National Weather Service River Forecast Centers (RFCs), comprising forecasters and hydrologists. SPoRT has hosted a series of formal assessments to determine uses and utility of these datasets for NWS operations at specific offices. Forecasters primarily have used Level 2 swath rain rates to observe rainfall in otherwise data-void regions and to confirm model QPF for their nowcasting or short-term forecasting. Hydrologists have been evaluating both the Level 2 rain rates and the IMERG rain rates, including rain rate accumulations derived from IMERG; hydrologists have used these data to supplement gauge data for post-event analysis as well as for longer-term forecasting. Results from specific evaluations will be presented. Another evaluation of the GPM passive microwave rain rates has been in using the data within other products that are currently transitioned to end-users, rather than as stand-alone observations. For example, IMERG Early data is being used as a forcing mechanism in the NASA Land Information System (LIS) for real-time soil moisture product over eastern Africa. IMERG is providing valuable precipitation information to LIS in an otherwise data-void region. Results and caveats will briefly be discussed. A third application of GPM data is using the IMERG Late and Final products for model verification in remote regions where high-quality gridded precipitation fields are not readily available. These datasets can now be used to verify NWP

  14. SCORING ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING MODELS BANKRUPTCY RISK OF COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUSU Stefanita

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Bankruptcy risk made the subject of many research studies that aim at identifying the time of the bankruptcy, the factors that compete to achieve this state, the indicators that best express this orientation (the bankruptcy. The threats to enterprises require the managers knowledge of continually economic and financial situations, and vulnerable areas with development potential. Managers need to identify and properly manage the threats that would prevent achieving the targets. In terms of methods known in the literature of assessment and evaluation of bankruptcy risk they are static, functional, strategic, and scoring nonfinancial models. This article addresses Altman and Conan-Holder-known internationally as the model developed at national level by two teachers from prestigious universities in our country-the Robu-Mironiuc model. Those models are applied to data released by the profit and loss account and balance sheet Turism Covasna company over which bankruptcy risk analysis is performed. The results of the analysis are interpreted while trying to formulate solutions to the economic and financial viability of the entity.

  15. Shelf-life assessment and forecast in retail fresh hake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miriam R. Garcia

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Fish quality has a direct impact on market price and its accurate assessment and prediction is of main importance to prevent food wastage due to extremely conservative product shelf-life estimations. In this work we present a general methodology to derive predictive models of fish freshness under different storage conditions. The approach focuses in finding growth models of specific spoilage micro-organisms in hake sufficiently informative to estimate two common quality market indexes. In order to get enough predictive capabilities, we make use of Optimal Experimental Design and analyze the statistics associated with the predictions due to fish variability. As a result, both quality indexes and their variability can be estimated under different temperature profiles. Although the methodology here presented has been applied and validated in hake, it is sufficiently general to be used in other fish species and under different stress variables. In addition, the parameters found for this case are robust enough to predict quality in conditions not used during the model calibration, such as for example hake captured with a different commercial fishing technique.

  16. On the use of the intensity‐scale verification technique to assess operational precipitation forecasts

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Csima, Gabriella; Ghelli, Anna

    2008-01-01

    ...‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) over France, and to compare the performance of the ECMWF and the Hungarian Meteorological Service operational...

  17. Rapid Health and Needs assessments after disasters: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yzermans CJ

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Publichealth care providers, stakeholders and policy makers request a rapid insight into health status and needs of the affected population after disasters. To our knowledge, there is no standardized rapid assessment tool for European countries. The aim of this article is to describe existing tools used internationally and analyze them for the development of a workable rapid assessment. Methods A review was conducted, including original studies concerning a rapid health and/or needs assessment. The studies used were published between 1980 and 2009. The electronic databasesof Medline, Embase, SciSearch and Psychinfo were used. Results Thirty-three studies were included for this review. The majority of the studies was of US origin and in most cases related to natural disasters, especially concerning the weather. In eighteen studies an assessment was conducted using a structured questionnaire, eleven studies used registries and four used both methods. Questionnaires were primarily used to asses the health needs, while data records were used to assess the health status of disaster victims. Conclusions Methods most commonly used were face to face interviews and data extracted from existing registries. Ideally, a rapid assessment tool is needed which does not add to the burden of disaster victims. In this perspective, the use of existing medical registries in combination with a brief questionnaire in the aftermath of disasters is the most promising. Since there is an increasing need for such a tool this approach needs further examination.

  18. Rapid trachoma assessment in Kersa District, Southwest Ethiopia ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study was thus conducted to assess the prevalence estimate of trachoma and its risk factors in Kersa District, Southwest Ethiopia. Methods: A community based cross sectional Rapid Assessment of Trachoma was conducted using a WHO guideline. Six sub-districts were selected from Kersa District based on primary ...

  19. Rapid Assessment of Protected area Pressures and Threats in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Regular evaluation of protected area operations can enable policy makers develop strategic responses to pervasive management problems. Pressures and threats in seven National Parks of the National Park Service (NPS) were therefore assessed using the Rapid Assessment and Prioritization of Protected Area ...

  20. Developing a European Drought Observatory for Monitoring, Assessing and Forecasting Droughts across the European Continent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogt, J.; Barbosa, P.; Hofer, B.; Magni, D.; Jager, A. D.; Singleton, A.; Horion, S.; Sepulcre, G.; Micale, F.; Sokolova, E.; Calcagni, L.; Marioni, M.; Antofie, T. E.

    2011-12-01

    Many European countries have repeatedly been affected by droughts, resulting in considerable ecological and economic damage. Climate change studies indicate a trend towards increasing climate variability most likely resulting in more frequent drought occurrences also in Europe. Against this background, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) is developing methods and tools for assessing, monitoring and forecasting droughts in Europe and develops a European Drought Observatory (EDO) to complement national activities with a European view. As droughts affect the entire water cycle continuous monitoring of a suite of indicators is required. Drought indicators at continental scale are supplemented by indicators at national, regional and local scales, providing more detailed information. At the core of the European Drought Observatory (EDO) are a portal and a map server presenting Europe-wide up-to-date drought-relevant information to the public and to decision makers in policy and water resources management. The final portal will include access to metadata catalogues, media reports, a map server and other related resources. The current version of EDO publishes continental information based on data processed and analysed at JRC as well as more detailed information at national and river basin scale processed by the local authorities. Available drought products include monthly updated Standardized Precipitation Indices (SPI), modelled soil moisture anomalies, remote sensing observations on the state of the vegetation cover (i.e. fAPAR and NDWI) and groundwater levels. A one-week soil moisture anomaly forecast complements the picture. Access to information at the national and river basin scale is established through interoperability arrangements with local authorities, making use of a special metadata catalogue and OWS standards (especially WMS and WCS). In addition, time series of drought indices can be retrieved for grid cells and administrative regions in

  1. Assimilation of GOES satellite-based convective initiation and cloud growth observations into the Rapid Refresh and HRRR systems to improve aviation forecast guidance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mecikalski, John; Smith, Tracy; Weygandt, Stephen

    2014-05-01

    Latent heating profiles derived from GOES satellite-based cloud-top cooling rates are being assimilated into a retrospective version of the Rapid Refresh system (RAP) being run at the Global Systems Division. Assimilation of these data may help reduce the time lag for convection initiation (CI) in both the RAP model forecasts and in 3-km High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model runs that are initialized off of the RAP model grids. These data may also improve both the location and organization of developing convective storm clusters, especially in the nested HRRR runs. These types of improvements are critical for providing better convective storm guidance around busy hub airports and aviation corridor routes, especially in the highly congested Ohio Valley - Northeast - Mid-Atlantic region. Additional work is focusing on assimilating GOES-R CI algorithm cloud-top cooling-based latent heating profiles directly into the HRRR model. Because of the small-scale nature of the convective phenomena depicted in the cloud-top cooling rate data (on the order of 1-4 km scale), direct assimilation of these data in the HRRR may be more effective than assimilation in the RAP. The RAP is an hourly assimilation system developed at NOAA/ESRL and was implemented at NCEP as a NOAA operational model in May 2012. The 3-km HRRR runs hourly out to 15 hours as a nest within the ESRL real-time experimental RAP. The RAP and HRRR both use the WRF ARW model core, and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) is used within an hourly cycle to assimilate a wide variety of observations (including radar data) to initialize the RAP. Within this modeling framework, the cloud-top cooling rate-based latent heating profiles are applied as prescribed heating during the diabatic forward model integration part of the RAP digital filter initialization (DFI). No digital filtering is applied on the 3-km HRRR grid, but similar forward model integration with prescribed heating is used to assimilate

  2. New developments at the Flood Forecasting Centre: operational flood risk assessment and guidance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilling, Charlie

    2017-04-01

    The Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) is a partnership between the UK Met Office, the Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales. The FFC was established in 2009 to provide an overview of flood risk across England and Wales and to provide flood guidance services primarily for the emergency response community. The FFC provides forecasts for all natural sources of flooding, these being fluvial, surface water, coastal and groundwater. This involves an assessment of possible hydrometeorological events and their impacts over the next five days. During times of heightened flood risk, the close communication between the FFC, the Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales allows mobilization and deployment of staff and flood defences. Following a number of severe flood events during winters 2013-14 and 2015-16, coupled with a drive from the changing landscape in national incident response, there is a desire to identify flood events at even longer lead time. This earlier assessment and mobilization is becoming increasingly important and high profile within Government. For example, following the exceptional flooding across the north of England in December 2015 the Environment Agency have invested in 40 km of temporary barriers that will be moved around the country to help mitigate against the impacts of large flood events. Efficient and effective use of these barriers depends on identifying the broad regions at risk well in advance of the flood, as well as scaling the magnitude and duration of large events. Partly in response to this, the FFC now produce a flood risk assessment for a month ahead. In addition, since January 2017, the 'new generation' daily flood guidance statement includes an assessment of flood risk for the 6 to 10 day period. Examples of both these new products will be introduced, as will some of the new developments in science and technical capability that underpin these assessments. Examples include improvements to fluvial forecasting from 'fluvial

  3. Knowledge/Data Mining, Assessment and Forecasting of Ground Military Vehicle Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-11

    TAB Case Study for Miniaturized Superconducting Antenna  Knowledge Mining Assessment and Forecasting Implementation , Challenges.  Mitigation...depending on  application. 17. Vibration • Vibrating shaving razor blade • Electric carving  knife  with vibrating blade • Vibrating tooth brush...drag ‐Morphing • Use shape memory alloys, polymers,  miniature  hydraulics 31 Porous Materials.   • Drill holes in solid to reduce weight • Aerate lawn

  4. Improving the Consistency of Conditional Probability Assessments for Forecasting and Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Herbert Moskowitz; Rakesh K. Sarin

    1983-01-01

    "Public agencies are very keen on amassing statistics---they collect them, add them, raise them to the nth power, take the cube root and prepare wonderful diagrams. But what you must never forget is that every one of those figures comes in the first instance from the village watchman, who just puts down what he damn pleases." (Sir Josiah Stamp) The assessment of the conditional probabilities of events is useful and needed for forecasting, planning, and decision making. In this paper the diffi...

  5. An application and verification of ensemble forecasting on wind power to assess operational risk indicators in power grids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alessandrini, S.; Ciapessoni, E.; Cirio, D.; Pitto, A.; Sperati, S. [Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A., Milan (Italy). Power System Development Dept. and Environment and Sustainable Development Dept.; Pinson, P. [Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark). DTU Informatics

    2012-07-01

    Wind energy is part of the so-called not schedulable renewable sources, i.e. it must be exploited when it is available, otherwise it is lost. In European regulation it has priority of dispatch over conventional generation, to maximize green energy production. However, being variable and uncertain, wind (and solar) generation raises several issues for the security of the power grids operation. In particular, Transmission System Operators (TSOs) need as accurate as possible forecasts. Nowadays a deterministic approach in wind power forecasting (WPF) could easily be considered insufficient to face the uncertainty associated to wind energy. In order to obtain information about the accuracy of a forecast and a reliable estimation of its uncertainty, probabilistic forecasting is becoming increasingly widespread. In this paper we investigate the performances of the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling Limited area Ensemble Prediction System (COSMO-LEPS). First the ensemble application is followed by assessment of its properties (i.e. consistency, reliability) using different verification indices and diagrams calculated on wind power. Then we provide examples of how EPS based wind power forecast can be used in power system security analyses. Quantifying the forecast uncertainty allows to determine more accurately the regulation reserve requirements, hence improving security of operation and reducing system costs. In particular, the paper also presents a probabilistic power flow (PPF) technique developed at RSE and aimed to evaluate the impact of wind power forecast accuracy on the probability of security violations in power systems. (orig.)

  6. Heat wave over India during summer 2015: an assessment of real time extended range forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattanaik, D. R.; Mohapatra, M.; Srivastava, A. K.; Kumar, Arun

    2017-08-01

    Hot winds are the marked feature of summer season in India during late spring preceding the climatological onset of the monsoon season in June. Some years the conditions becomes very vulnerable with the maximum temperature ( T max) exceeding 45 °C for many days over parts of north-western, eastern coastal states of India and Indo-Gangetic plain. During summer of 2015 (late May to early June) eastern coastal states, central and northwestern parts of India experienced severe heat wave conditions leading to loss of thousands of human life in extreme high temperature conditions. It is not only the loss of human life but also the animals and birds were very vulnerable to this extreme heat wave conditions. In this study, an attempt is made to assess the performance of real time extended range forecast (forecast up to 3 weeks) of this scorching T max based on the NCEP's Climate Forecast System (CFS) latest version coupled model (CFSv2). The heat wave condition was very severe during the week from 22 to 28 May with subsequent week from 29 May to 4 June also witnessed high T max over many parts of central India including eastern coastal states of India. The 8 ensemble members of operational CFSv2 model are used once in a week to prepare the weekly bias corrected deterministic (ensemble mean) T max forecast for 3 weeks valid from Friday to Thursday coinciding with the heat wave periods of 2015. Using the 8 ensemble members separately and the CFSv2 corresponding hindcast climatology the probability of above and below normal T max is also prepared for the same 3 weeks. The real time deterministic and probabilistic forecasts did indicate impending heat wave over many parts of India during late May and early June of 2015 associated with strong northwesterly wind over main land mass of India, delaying the sea breeze, leading to heat waves over eastern coastal regions of India. Thus, the capability of coupled model in providing early warning of such killer heat wave can be very

  7. rapid assessment of polio virus antibodies prevalence amongst ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    northern Nigeria. There is paucity of information as it relates to polio antibody prevalence amongst children in the state. Periodic serologic assessment is needed to determine the quality and effectiveness of routine vaccination campaigns carried in the state to rapidly build immunity against poliovirus. Children were.

  8. Rapid Assessment of Tree Debris Following Urban Forest Ice Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard J. Hauer; Angela J. Hauer; Dudley R. Hartel; Jill R. Johnson

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a rapid assessment method to estimate urban tree debris following an ice storm. Data were collected from 60 communities to quantify tree debris volumes, mostly from public rights-of-way, following ice storms based on community infrastructure, weather parameters, and urban forest structure. Ice thickness, area of a community, and street distance are...

  9. Rapid assessment of assignments using plagiarism detection software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bischoff, Whitney R; Abrego, Patricia C

    2011-01-01

    Faculty members most often use plagiarism detection software to detect portions of students' written work that have been copied and/or not attributed to their authors. The rise in plagiarism has led to a parallel rise in software products designed to detect plagiarism. Some of these products are configurable for rapid assessment and teaching, as well as for plagiarism detection.

  10. Rapid assessment as an evaluation tool for polio national ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... timely intervention in covering missed children and helps in careful interpretation of the usual over 100% coverage often recorded during NIDs. It is recommended that this be practiced widely to improve quality of NIDs for early global eradication of poliomyelitis. Keywords: rapid assessment, evaluation, polio immunization

  11. A novel methodology for the rapid assessment of waterbird ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A methodology for rapidly assessing the vulnerability of waterbirds to disturbance was tested at Sabaki estuary, Kenya. Three variables were employed to measure the responses of 15 species: (1) bird density, (2) minimum distance of birds from a stationary disturbance and (3) recovery times following a moving disturbance.

  12. Combining Reference Class Forecasting with Overconfidence Theory for Better Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen; Salling, Kim Bang; Pilkauskiene, Inga

    2015-01-01

    -benefit analysis results that are modified by taking historical risk experience into account. This article seeks to add to this progress in risk assessment methodology in two ways: first it suggests to apply reference class forecasting (RCF) in a flexible way where the effort is focused on formulating the best...... simulation-based risk examination named SIMRISK is concluded to provide a new ‘in-depth’ possibility for dealing with uncertainties inherent to transport decision making based on socioeconomic analysis. In addition a further research perspective is outlined.......Assessing the risks of infrastructure investments has become a topic of growing importance. This is due to a sad record of implemented projects with cost overruns and demand shortfalls leading, in retrospect, to the finding that there is a need for better risk assessment of transport infrastructure...

  13. Innovative activity of high-technology companies as assessment and forecasting object

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Sklyarov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Innovation activities, as well as innovations, are closely related meanings, and like many others economical definitions, have a broad range of meanings. Main characteristics and attributes of innovation involves new or significantly improved product, that’s being used, or in other words, found its application, and innovative activities – activities focused on realization of innovations. In this article, innovations are mainly considered in terms of high-technology production, evidence from Russian space industry. There are 5 basic stages of lifecycle of innovative project in considered industry: initiation, development, realization, expansion, consumption. Practically, third or fourth, or even both of these stages, often missing because there is no need of them. R&D activities, or even further serial production, based on previous developments, is an innovation activity, because these activities are stages of innovative projects lifecycle itself. Then it seems legit, to draw a conclusion, that in terms of high-technology production, company’s primary activity equals innovative activity. Basic characteristics of innovative activity of high-technology companies as assessment and forecasting object involves high level of uncertainty at every stage of projects lifecycle, high dependency on funding level of this activity, and high level and erratic structure of risk. All the above mentioned, means that assessment and forecasting of innovative activity of high-technology companies, needs development of its own methodological tools for each industry.

  14. A robustness screen for the rapid assessment of chemical reactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Karl D; Glorius, Frank

    2013-07-01

    In contrast to the rapidity with which scientific information is published, the application of new knowledge often remains slow, and we believe this to be particularly true of newly developed synthetic organic chemistry methodology. Consequently, methods to assess and identify robust chemical reactions are desirable, and would directly facilitate the application of newly reported synthetic methodology to complex synthetic problems. Here, we describe a simple process for assessing the likely scope and limitations of a chemical reaction beyond the idealized reaction conditions initially reported. Using simple methods and common analytical techniques we demonstrate a rapid assessment of an established chemical reaction, and also propose a simplified analysis that may be reported alongside new synthetic methodology.

  15. Assessment of GloseA4 seasonal forecasts for SADC and the global oceans

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal forecast skill over southern Africa may improve through the combination of forecasts. In the southern African region, however, only a small number of institutions have the capability to run global models operationally which can feed...

  16. Rapid Risk Assessment: FY05 Annual Summary Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whelan, Gene; Millard, W. David; Gelston, Gariann M.; Pelton, Mitch A.; Yang, Zhaoqing; Strenge, Dennis L.; Lee, Cheegwan; Sivaraman, Chitra; Simpson, Mary J.; Young, Joan K.; Khangaonkar, Tarang P.; Downing, Timothy R.; Hoopes, Bonnie L.; Hachmeister, Lon E.

    2006-03-06

    The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is developing decision support tools that will assist in the transition of incident information into Protective Action Recommendations (PARs) that are understandable and can be executed in a real-world, operational environment. During emergencies, responders must rapidly assess risks and decide on the best course of action—all within minutes to hours. PNNL is blending existing modeling and decision support technology to develop new methods for transitioning science-based threat assessment to PARs. The rapid risk assessment tool will be both understandable and applicable to the emergency management community and would be a valuable tool during any water security-related incident. In 2005, PNNL demonstrated the integration of the multi-thematic modeling with emergency management decision support tools to create a Rapid Risk Assessment (RRA) tool that will transition risk to PARs that assist in responding to or mitigating the direct and indirect impacts of the incident(s). The RRA tool does this by aligning multi-thematic modeling capabilities with real-world response zones established by emergency and site operations managers. The RRA tool uses the risk assessment tool to drive prognostic models that use the type of incident, time of impact, severity of impact, and duration of impact to select the most appropriate PAR. Because PARs (and the thresholds by which they are selected) are jointly established by the technologists and the emergency management and operations decision makers, the science-based risk assessment can transition into a recommendation that can be understood and executed by people in the field.

  17. Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2016-01-01

    fundamentally. In this competitive and dynamic environment, many decision-making processes rely on probabilistic forecasts to quantify the uncertain future. Although most of the papers in the energy forecasting literature focus on point or singlevalued forecasts, the research interest in probabilistic energy...... forecasting research has taken off rapidly in recent years. In this paper, we summarize the recent research progress on probabilistic energy forecasting. A major portion of the paper is devoted to introducing the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 (GEFCom2014), a probabilistic energy forecasting...

  18. PAGER--Rapid assessment of an earthquake?s impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wald, D.J.; Jaiswal, K.; Marano, K.D.; Bausch, D.; Hearne, M.

    2010-01-01

    PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) is an automated system that produces content concerning the impact of significant earthquakes around the world, informing emergency responders, government and aid agencies, and the media of the scope of the potential disaster. PAGER rapidly assesses earthquake impacts by comparing the population exposed to each level of shaking intensity with models of economic and fatality losses based on past earthquakes in each country or region of the world. Earthquake alerts--which were formerly sent based only on event magnitude and location, or population exposure to shaking--now will also be generated based on the estimated range of fatalities and economic losses.

  19. Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of coronary artery revascularisation procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannan, Haider R; Knuiman, Matthew; Hobbs, Michael

    2008-06-25

    Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD) have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs) that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs) and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs). It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007). In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard) model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance. Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model. The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995-99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG procedure stemming from changed CARP preference

  20. Assessing reference evapotranspiration at regional scale based on remote sensing, weather forecast and GIS tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez-Cuesta, J. M.; Cruz-Blanco, M.; Santos, C.; Lorite, I. J.

    2017-03-01

    Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a key component in efficient water management, especially in arid and semi-arid environments. However, accurate ETo assessment at the regional scale is complicated by the limited number of weather stations and the strict requirements in terms of their location and surrounding physical conditions for the collection of valid weather data. In an attempt to overcome this limitation, new approaches based on the use of remote sensing techniques and weather forecast tools have been proposed. Use of the Land Surface Analysis Satellite Application Facility (LSA SAF) tool and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have allowed the design and development of innovative approaches for ETo assessment, which are especially useful for areas lacking available weather data from weather stations. Thus, by identifying the best-performing interpolation approaches (such as the Thin Plate Splines, TPS) and by developing new approaches (such as the use of data from the most similar weather station, TS, or spatially distributed correction factors, CITS), errors as low as 1.1% were achieved for ETo assessment. Spatial and temporal analyses reveal that the generated errors were smaller during spring and summer as well as in homogenous topographic areas. The proposed approaches not only enabled accurate calculations of seasonal and daily ETo values, but also contributed to the development of a useful methodology for evaluating the optimum number of weather stations to be integrated into a weather station network and the appropriateness of their locations. In addition to ETo, other variables included in weather forecast datasets (such as temperature or rainfall) could be evaluated using the same innovative methodology proposed in this study.

  1. A biometeorological procedure for weather forecast to assess the optimal outdoor clothing insulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Cecchi, Lorenzo; Modesti, Pietro Amedeo; Maracchi, Giampiero; Gensini, Gian Franco; Orlandini, Simone

    2008-09-01

    Clothing insulation represents an important parameter strongly dependent on climate/weather variability and directly involved in the assessment of the human energy balance. Few studies tried to explore the influence of climate changes on the optimal clothing insulation for outdoor spaces. For this reason, the aim of this work was to investigate mainly the optimal outdoor minimum clothing insulation value required to reach the thermal neutrality (min_clo) related to climate change on a seasonal basis. Subsequently, we developed an example of operational biometeorological procedure to provide 72-hour forecast maps concerning the min_clo. Hourly meteorological data were provided by three Italian weather stations located in Turin, Rome and Palermo, for the period 1951-1995. Environmental variables and subjective characteristics referred to an average adult young male at rest and at a very high metabolic rate were used as input variables to calculate the min_clo by using a thermal index based on the human energy balance. Trends of min_clo were assessed by a non-parametric statistical method. Results showed a lower magnitude of trends in a subject at a very high metabolic rate than at rest. Turin always showed a decrease of min_clo during the study period and prevalently negative trends were also observed in Palermo. On the other hand, an opposite situation was observed in Rome, especially during the morning in all seasons. The development of a daily operational procedure to forecast customized min_clo could provide useful information for the outdoor clothing fitting that might help to reduce the weather-related human health risk.

  2. A rapid test for soy aeroallergens exposure assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Simon, Daniel; Cruz, María-Jesús; Untoria, María-Dolores; Muñoz, Xavier; Villalbí, Joan R; Morell, Ferran; Gómez-Ollés, Susana

    2014-01-01

    Determining soy aeroallergens levels is extremely important in the assessment of health risks due to these airborne substances. Currently, soy aeroallergens exposure in the environment is monitored using enzyme immunoassays (EIA) which must be evaluated in a specialized laboratory by skilled personnel. To describe the development and performance of a rapid immunochromatography assay for the detection of soy aeroallergens in environmental samples. A test strip using gold labeled anti-soy hull low molecular weight extract (SHLMWE) antibody for the rapid detection of soy aeroallergens in environmental samples was developed. One hundred nineteen airborne samples were analysed in parallel by the strip assay and the anti-SHLMWE sandwich EIA. The assay results were visually analysed by three independent observers who ranked samples as: -, + or ++. Strips were also scanned and analysed by densitometry. The rapid test detected a range of concentrations from 6.25 to 25 ng/mL. Agreement in strip assay interpretations between evaluators was substantial (Kappa = 0.63; CI 0.544-0.715). Visual interpretation also gave a good concordance with EIA results, with sensitivity ranging from 77.3 to 100 and specificity from 65 to 83.5 depending on the observer. Furthermore, a strong correlation was observed between densitometry results of strip assay and EIA determinations. The strip assay developed is rapid, simple, and sensitive and does not require expensive equipment or specific skills. It has considerable potential in the environmental monitoring field for screening soy aeroallergens levels in port cities where allergen measurements are not currently performed. Due to its simplicity, the test will improve the management of soy allergic patients by controlling environmental allergen exposure without the need for apparatus or skilled personnel.

  3. Rapid Assessment of Age-Related Differences in Standing Balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Kalisch

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available As life expectancy continues to rise, in the future there will be an increasing number of older people prone to falling. Accordingly, there is an urgent need for comprehensive testing of older individuals to collect data and to identify possible risk factors for falling. Here we use a low-cost force platform to rapidly assess deficits in balance under various conditions. We tested 21 healthy older adults and 24 young adults during static stance, unidirectional and rotational displacement of their centre of pressure (COP. We found an age-related increase in postural sway during quiet standing and a reduction of maximal COP displacement in unidirectional and rotational displacement tests. Our data show that even low-cost computerized assessment tools allow for the comprehensive testing of balance performance in older subjects.

  4. Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess the quality of probabilistic forecast systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maia, A.H.N.; Meinke, H.B.; Lennox, S.; Stone, R.C.

    2007-01-01

    Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. To be useful for decision making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and its statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must

  5. Assessment of GloSea4 seasonal forecasts for SADC and the global oceans

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this research is to demonstrate the skill of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre’s coupled global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea4, as a seasonal forecasting tool for the Southern African Development Community (SADC...

  6. Assessment and limits of the existent seasonal forecasts as support for the decision making process in the Sahel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacci, Maurizio; Genesio, Lorenzo; di Vecchia, Andrea; Tarchiani, Vieri; Vignaroli, Patrizio

    2010-05-01

    The economy of West Africa sahelian countries is based on the primary sector and the population's food security is strictly linked to rainfed crops production. The sahelian countries constitute a belt from Senegal to Chad characterized by an unimodal rainfall distribution during the summer months. The rainfall spatial and time distribution are very variable: dry spells and shifts in the rainy season onset are very frequent. The famines that stroke the region in the past demonstrate that in these ecosystems drought represents a key factor for the food security. In particular, anomalies in precipitation amount and distribution represent the major cause of losses in rainfed agriculture. The early availability of information on the development of the rainy season is essential for decision makers to assess the level of risk in terms of spatial extension and intensity, to take consequent decision on the mobilization of national/international stocks and to provide information for farmers orienting their choices for risk reduction. Addressing these needs, since late 90's the scientific community begins to develop long term meteorological forecast models. Nowadays, despite the general awareness on their potential role in food crises prevention, seasonal forecasts are still under exploited at regional/national level. Indeed, the major constraints to their operational use are (i) the reduced skill in intercepting key aspects of the agricultural season such as starting and ending date and presence of dry spells, and (ii) the difficulty of decision makers of understanding and consequently handling the level of uncertainty of the predictive information. Today the growing demand for early information to support decision-making requires an improvement in the suitability of seasonal forecasts and in their tailoring to users. The aim of this paper is contributing to the scientific debate on Seasonal Forecast proposing possible orientations for models further development and the

  7. The Simulation-Based Assessment of Pediatric Rapid Response Teams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fehr, James J; McBride, Mary E; Boulet, John R; Murray, David J

    2017-09-01

    To create scenarios of simulated decompensating pediatric patients to train pediatric rapid response teams (RRTs) and to determine whether the scenario scores provide a valid assessment of RRT performance with the hypothesis that RRTs led by intensivists-in-training would be better prepared to manage the scenarios than teams led by nurse practitioners. A set of 10 simulated scenarios was designed for the training and assessment of pediatric RRTs. Pediatric RRTs, comprising a pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) registered nurse and respiratory therapist, led by a PICU intensivist-in-training or a pediatric nurse practitioner, managed 7 simulated acutely decompensating patients. Two raters evaluated the scenario performances and psychometric analyses of the scenarios were performed. The teams readily managed scenarios such as supraventricular tachycardia and opioid overdose but had difficulty with more complicated scenarios such as aortic coarctation or head injury. The management of any particular scenario was reasonably predictive of overall team performance. The teams led by the PICU intensivists-in-training outperformed the teams led by the pediatric nurse practitioners. Simulation provides a method for RRTs to develop decision-making skills in managing decompensating pediatric patients. The multiple scenario assessment provided a moderately reliable team score. The greater scores achieved by PICU intensivist-in-training-led teams provides some evidence to support the validity of the assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Development of an Impact-Oriented Quantitative Coastal Inundation forecasting and early warning system with social and economic assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakhruddin, S. H. M.; Babel, Mukand S.; Kawasaki, Akiyuki

    2014-05-01

    Coastal inundations are an increasing threat to the lives and livelihoods of people living in low-lying, highly-populated coastal areas. According to a World Bank Report in 2005, at least 2.6 million people may have drowned due to coastal inundation, particularly caused by storm surges, over the last 200 years. Forecasting and prediction of natural events, such as tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, inland flooding, and severe winter weather, provide critical guidance to emergency managers and decision-makers from the local to the national level, with the goal of minimizing both human and economic losses. This guidance is used to facilitate evacuation route planning, post-disaster response and resource deployment, and critical infrastructure protection and securing, and it must be available within a time window in which decision makers can take appropriate action. Recognizing this extreme vulnerability of coastal areas to inundation/flooding, and with a view to improve safety-related services for the community, research should strongly enhance today's forecasting, prediction and early warning capabilities in order to improve the assessment of coastal vulnerability and risks and develop adequate prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures. This paper tries to develop an impact-oriented quantitative coastal inundation forecasting and early warning system with social and economic assessment to address the challenges faced by coastal communities to enhance their safety and to support sustainable development, through the improvement of coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems.

  9. Benchmarking computational fluid dynamics models of lava flow simulation for hazard assessment, forecasting, and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietterich, Hannah; Lev, Einat; Chen, Jiangzhi; Richardson, Jacob A.; Cashman, Katharine V.

    2017-01-01

    Numerical simulations of lava flow emplacement are valuable for assessing lava flow hazards, forecasting active flows, designing flow mitigation measures, interpreting past eruptions, and understanding the controls on lava flow behavior. Existing lava flow models vary in simplifying assumptions, physics, dimensionality, and the degree to which they have been validated against analytical solutions, experiments, and natural observations. In order to assess existing models and guide the development of new codes, we conduct a benchmarking study of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for lava flow emplacement, including VolcFlow, OpenFOAM, FLOW-3D, COMSOL, and MOLASSES. We model viscous, cooling, and solidifying flows over horizontal planes, sloping surfaces, and into topographic obstacles. We compare model results to physical observations made during well-controlled analogue and molten basalt experiments, and to analytical theory when available. Overall, the models accurately simulate viscous flow with some variability in flow thickness where flows intersect obstacles. OpenFOAM, COMSOL, and FLOW-3D can each reproduce experimental measurements of cooling viscous flows, and OpenFOAM and FLOW-3D simulations with temperature-dependent rheology match results from molten basalt experiments. We assess the goodness-of-fit of the simulation results and the computational cost. Our results guide the selection of numerical simulation codes for different applications, including inferring emplacement conditions of past lava flows, modeling the temporal evolution of ongoing flows during eruption, and probabilistic assessment of lava flow hazard prior to eruption. Finally, we outline potential experiments and desired key observational data from future flows that would extend existing benchmarking data sets.

  10. Assessing existing drought monitoring and forecasting capacities, mitigation and adaptation practices in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyabeze, W. R.; Dlamini, L.; Lahlou, O.; Imani, Y.; Alaoui, S. B.; Vermooten, J. S. A.

    2012-04-01

    Drought is one of the major natural hazards in many parts of the world, including Africa and some regions in Europe. Drought events have resulted in extensive damages to livelihoods, environment and economy. In 2011, a consortium consisting of 19 organisations from both Africa and Europe started a project (DEWFORA) aimed at developing a framework for the provision of early warning and response through drought impact mitigation for Africa. This framework covers the whole chain from monitoring and vulnerability assessment to forecasting, warning, response and knowledge dissemination. This paper presents the first results of the capacity assessment of drought monitoring and forecasting systems in Africa, the existing institutional frameworks and drought mitigation and adaptation practices. Its focus is particularly on the historical drought mitigation and adaptation actions identified in the North Africa - Maghreb Region (Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia) and in the Southern Africa - Limpopo Basin. This is based on an extensive review of historical drought experiences. From the 1920's to 2009, the study identified 37 drought seasons in the North African - Maghreb Region and 33 drought seasons in the Southern Africa - Limpopo Basin. Existing literature tends to capture the spatial extent of drought at national and administrative scale in great detail. This is driven by the need to map drought impacts (food shortage, communities affected) in order to inform drought relief efforts (short-term drought mitigation measures). However, the mapping of drought at catchment scale (hydrological unit), required for longer-term measures, is not well documented. At regional level, both in North Africa and Southern Africa, two organisations are involved in drought monitoring and forecasting, while at national level 22 organisations are involved in North Africa and 37 in Southern Africa. Regarding drought related mitigation actions, the inventory shows that the most common actions

  11. Strengthening health professions regulation in Cambodia: a rapid assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, David; Duke, Jan; Wuliji, Tana; Smith, Alyson; Phuong, Keat; San, Un

    2016-03-10

    This paper describes a rapid assessment of Cambodia's current system for regulating its health professions. The assessment forms part of a co-design process to set strategic priorities for strengthening health profession regulation to improve the quality and safety of health services. A health system approach for strengthening health professions' regulation is underway and aims to support the Government of Cambodia's plans for scaling up its health workforce, improving health services' safety and quality, and meeting its Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) obligations to facilitate trade in health care services. The assessment used a mixed methods approach including: A desktop review of key laws, plans, reports and other documents relating to the regulation of the health professions in Cambodia (medicine, dentistry, midwifery, nursing and pharmacy); Key informant interviews with stakeholders in Cambodia (The term "stakeholders" refers to government officials, people working on health professional regulation, people working for the various health worker training institutions and health workers at the national and provincial level); Surveys and questionnaires to assess Cambodian stakeholder knowledge of regulation; Self-assessments by members of the five Cambodian regulatory councils regarding key capacities and activities of high-performing regulatory bodies; and A rapid literature review to identify: The key functions of health professional regulation; The key issues affecting the Cambodian health sector (including relevant developments in the wider ASEAN region); and "Smart" health profession regulation practices of possible relevance to Cambodia. We found that the current regulatory system only partially meets Cambodia's needs. A number of key regulatory functions are being performed, but overall, the current system was not designed with Cambodia's specific needs in mind. The existing system is also overly complex, with considerable duplication and

  12. Rapid climate change and society: assessing responses and thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemeyer, Simon; Petts, Judith; Hobson, Kersty

    2005-12-01

    Assessing the social risks associated with climate change requires an understanding of how humans will respond because it affects how well societies will adapt. In the case of rapid or dangerous climate change, of particular interest is the potential for these responses to cross thresholds beyond which they become maladaptive. To explore the possibility of such thresholds, a series of climate change scenarios were presented to U.K. participants whose subjective responses were recorded via interviews and surveyed using Q methodology. The results indicate an initially adaptive response to climate warming followed by a shift to maladaptation as the magnitude of change increases. Beyond this threshold, trust in collective action and institutions was diminished, negatively impacting adaptive capacity. Climate cooling invoked a qualitatively different response, although this may be a product of individuals being primed for warming because it has dominated public discourse. The climate change scenarios used in this research are severe by climatological standards. In reality, the observed responses might occur at a lower rate of change. Whatever the case, analysis of subjectivity has revealed potential for maladaptive human responses, constituting a dangerous or rapid climate threshold within the social sphere.

  13. Rapid assessment of disaster damage using social media activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kryvasheyeu, Yury; Chen, Haohui; Obradovich, Nick; Moro, Esteban; Van Hentenryck, Pascal; Fowler, James; Cebrian, Manuel

    2016-01-01

    Could social media data aid in disaster response and damage assessment? Countries face both an increasing frequency and an increasing intensity of natural disasters resulting from climate change. During such events, citizens turn to social media platforms for disaster-related communication and information. Social media improves situational awareness, facilitates dissemination of emergency information, enables early warning systems, and helps coordinate relief efforts. In addition, the spatiotemporal distribution of disaster-related messages helps with the real-time monitoring and assessment of the disaster itself. We present a multiscale analysis of Twitter activity before, during, and after Hurricane Sandy. We examine the online response of 50 metropolitan areas of the United States and find a strong relationship between proximity to Sandy’s path and hurricane-related social media activity. We show that real and perceived threats, together with physical disaster effects, are directly observable through the intensity and composition of Twitter’s message stream. We demonstrate that per-capita Twitter activity strongly correlates with the per-capita economic damage inflicted by the hurricane. We verify our findings for a wide range of disasters and suggest that massive online social networks can be used for rapid assessment of damage caused by a large-scale disaster. PMID:27034978

  14. Rapid Response Risk Assessment in New Project Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graber, Robert R.

    2010-01-01

    A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment

  15. Rapid Assessment of Habitat Diversity Along the Araras Stream, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriel Barboza Bentos

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Agriculture, urbanization, and industrialization are some of the anthropogenic activities that constantly generate negative impacts on natural environments. Part of this degradation directly affects aquatic systems. This study aimed to evaluate the visual characteristics of the Araras Stream, located in the municipality of Araras, São Paulo state, Brazil. Data was collected at six different assessment sites along the river in both rural and urban areas. The evaluation used a Rapid Habitat Diversity Assessment (RHDA protocol composed of 22 parameters, which define levels of preservation of ecological conditions. According to this protocol, the 32 Km-long study transect along the Araras Stream was rated as impacted (39.6 points. A separate assessment by transects showed that only Transect 1 presented a natural level of preservation (71.8 points. Transects located in the urban area contributed the most to impacts on the aquatic environment. The RHDA protocol proved to be an important tool to evaluate and monitor aquatic environments.

  16. Rapid assessment of disaster damage using social media activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kryvasheyeu, Yury; Chen, Haohui; Obradovich, Nick; Moro, Esteban; Van Hentenryck, Pascal; Fowler, James; Cebrian, Manuel

    2016-03-01

    Could social media data aid in disaster response and damage assessment? Countries face both an increasing frequency and an increasing intensity of natural disasters resulting from climate change. During such events, citizens turn to social media platforms for disaster-related communication and information. Social media improves situational awareness, facilitates dissemination of emergency information, enables early warning systems, and helps coordinate relief efforts. In addition, the spatiotemporal distribution of disaster-related messages helps with the real-time monitoring and assessment of the disaster itself. We present a multiscale analysis of Twitter activity before, during, and after Hurricane Sandy. We examine the online response of 50 metropolitan areas of the United States and find a strong relationship between proximity to Sandy's path and hurricane-related social media activity. We show that real and perceived threats, together with physical disaster effects, are directly observable through the intensity and composition of Twitter's message stream. We demonstrate that per-capita Twitter activity strongly correlates with the per-capita economic damage inflicted by the hurricane. We verify our findings for a wide range of disasters and suggest that massive online social networks can be used for rapid assessment of damage caused by a large-scale disaster.

  17. Trachoma rapid assessment in Shandong province of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Yi; Bi, Hongsheng; Wen, Ying; Li, Chaofeng; Wu, Hui

    2014-01-01

    This research aims at identifying relative interventions on trachoma and testing the effectiveness of control measures adopted by assessing its prevalence and related risk factors in Shandong province of China. Trachoma rapid assessment (TRA) was conducted in 6 sub-districts selected from Shandong province based on primary high risk assessment. Active trachoma in children aged 1-9 years and environmental risk factors of trachoma (unclean faces, absence of running water, and absence of flush toilets) were assessed (TRA 1). Control measures were taken in endemic areas. A second TRA (TRA 2) was conducted after 12 months in the same 6 districts and findings of the two TRAs were compared. In TRA 1, we found trachoma in 3 sub-districts and the detection rate was 4% (95% CI: 0.39%-11.12%), 6% (95% CI: 1.18%-14.17%), and 6% (95% CI: 1.18%-14.17%) respectively. We could not find trachoma cases in TRA 2. Research data supports that children living with environmental risk factors face an increased risk to active trachoma. However, we could not find statistical evidence for this association, which may be caused by the limited data on prevalence. This research indicates that the TRA methodology is easy to assess trachoma and its related risk factors. Based on the results of this study, we have already achieved the goal of "elimination of trachoma" in Shandong province, as the detection rate of trachomatous inflamation follicular/trachomatous inflammation intense in 1-9-year-old children was less than 5%.

  18. The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posner, A; Hesse, M; St Cyr, O C

    2014-04-01

    Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations. Manuscript assesses current and near-future space weather assetsCurrent assets unreliable for forecasting of severe geomagnetic stormsNear-future assets will not improve the situation.

  19. Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

    OpenAIRE

    McAllister, Patrick; Newell, G.; Matysiak, George

    2005-01-01

    Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The re...

  20. Numerical modelling for real-time forecasting of marine oil pollution and hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Dominicis, Michela; Pinardi, Nadia; Bruciaferri, Diego; Liubartseva, Svitlana

    2015-04-01

    (MEDESS4MS) system, which is an integrated operational multi-model oil spill prediction service, that can be used by different users to run simulations of oil spills at sea, even in real time, through a web portal. The MEDESS4MS system gathers different oil spill modelling systems and data from meteorological and ocean forecasting systems, as well as operational information on response equipment, together with environmental and socio-economic sensitivity maps. MEDSLIK-II has been also used to provide an assessment of hazard stemming from operational oil ship discharges in the Southern Adriatic and Northern Ionian (SANI) Seas. Operational pollution resulting from ships consists of a movable hazard with a magnitude that changes dynamically as a result of a number of external parameters varying in space and time (temperature, wind, sea currents). Simulations of oil releases have been performed with realistic oceanographic currents and the results show that the oil pollution hazard distribution has an inherent spatial and temporal variability related to the specific flow field variability.

  1. The Effects of Rapid Assessments and Adaptive Restudy Prompts in Multimedia Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renkl, Alexander; Skuballa, Irene T.; Schwonke, Rolf; Harr, Nora; Leber, Jasmin

    2015-01-01

    We investigated the effects of rapid assessment tasks and different adaptive restudy prompts in multimedia learning. The adaptivity was based on rapid assessment tasks that were interspersed throughout a multimedia learning environment. In Experiment 1 (N = 52 university students), we analyzed to which extent rapid assessment tasks were reactive…

  2. Assessment of an Adaptive Load Forecasting Methodology in a Smart Grid Demonstration Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Vazquez

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the implementation of an adaptive load forecasting methodology in two different power networks from a smart grid demonstration project deployed in the region of Madrid, Spain. The paper contains an exhaustive comparative study of different short-term load forecast methodologies, addressing the methods and variables that are more relevant to be applied for the smart grid deployment. The evaluation followed in this paper suggests that the performance of the different methods depends on the conditions of the site in which the smart grid is implemented. It is shown that some non-linear methods, such as support vector machine with a radial basis function kernel and extremely randomized forest offer good performance using only 24 lagged load hourly values, which could be useful when the amount of data available is limited due to communication problems in the smart grid monitoring system. However, it has to be highlighted that, in general, the behavior of different short-term load forecast methodologies is not stable when they are applied to different power networks and that when there is a considerable variability throughout the whole testing period, some methods offer good performance in some situations, but they fail in others. In this paper, an adaptive load forecasting methodology is proposed to address this issue improving the forecasting performance through iterative optimization: in each specific situation, the best short-term load forecast methodology is chosen, resulting in minimum prediction errors.

  3. Rapid assessment methods in eye care: An overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Srinivas Marmamula

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Reliable information is required for the planning and management of eye care services. While classical research methods provide reliable estimates, they are prohibitively expensive and resource intensive. Rapid assessment (RA methods are indispensable tools in situations where data are needed quickly and where time- or cost-related factors prohibit the use of classical epidemiological surveys. These methods have been developed and field tested, and can be applied across almost the entire gamut of health care. The 1990s witnessed the emergence of RA methods in eye care for cataract, onchocerciasis, and trachoma and, more recently, the main causes of avoidable blindness and visual impairment. The important features of RA methods include the use of local resources, simplified sampling methodology, and a simple examination protocol/data collection method that can be performed by locally available personnel. The analysis is quick and easy to interpret. The entire process is inexpensive, so the survey may be repeated once every 5-10 years to assess the changing trends in disease burden. RA survey methods are typically linked with an intervention. This article provides an overview of the RA methods commonly used in eye care, and emphasizes the selection of appropriate methods based on the local need and context.

  4. Rapid Assessment of Seismic Vulnerability in Palestinian Refugee Camps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Dabbeek, Jalal N.; El-Kelani, Radwan J.

    Studies of historical and recorded earthquakes in Palestine demonstrate that damaging earthquakes are occurring frequently along the Dead Sea Transform: Earthquake of 11 July 1927 (ML 6.2), Earthquake of 11 February 2004 (ML 5.2). In order to reduce seismic vulnerability of buildings, losses in lives, properties and infrastructures, an attempt was made to estimate the percentage of damage degrees and losses at selected refugee camps: Al Ama`ri, Balata and Dhaishe. Assessing the vulnerability classes of building structures was carried out according to the European Macro-Seismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98) and the Fedral Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The rapid assessment results showed that very heavy structural and non structural damages will occur in the common buildings of the investigated Refugee Camps (many buildings will suffer from damages grades 4 and 5). Bad quality of buildings in terms of design and construction, lack of uniformity, absence of spaces between the building and the limited width of roads will definitely increase the seismic vulnerability under the influence of moderate-strong (M 6-7) earthquakes in the future.

  5. Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM): reactor-accident assessment methods. Vol. 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poeton, R.W.; Moeller, M.P.; Laughlin, G.J.; Desrosiers, A.E.

    1983-05-01

    As part of the continuing emphasis on emergency preparedness, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) sponsored the development of a rapid dose assessment system by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). This system, the Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM) is a micro-computer based program for rapidly assessing the radiological impact of accidents at nuclear power plants. This document describes the technical bases for IRDAM including methods, models and assumptions used in calculations. IRDAM calculates whole body (5-cm depth) and infant thyroid doses at six fixed downwind distances between 500 and 20,000 meters. Radionuclides considered primarily consist of noble gases and radioiodines. In order to provide a rapid assessment capability consistent with the capacity of the Osborne-1 computer, certain simplifying approximations and assumptions are made. These are described, along with default values (assumptions used in the absence of specific input) in the text of this document. Two companion volumes to this one provide additional information on IRDAM. The user's Guide (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 1) describes the setup and operation of equipment necessary to run IRDAM. Scenarios for Comparing Dose Assessment Models (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 3) provides the results of calculations made by IRDAM and other models for specific accident scenarios.

  6. Assessing the Effectiveness of the Cone of Probability as a Visual Means of Communicating Scientific Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orlove, B. S.; Broad, K.; Meyer, R.

    2010-12-01

    We review the evolution, communication, and differing interpretations of the National Hurricane Center (NHC)'s "cone of uncertainty" hurricane forecast graphic, drawing on several related disciplines—cognitive psychology, visual anthropology, and risk communication theory. We examine the 2004 hurricane season, two specific hurricanes (Katrina 2005 and Ike 2008) and the 2010 hurricane season, still in progress. During the 2004 hurricane season, five named storms struck Florida. Our analysis of that season draws upon interviews with key government officials and media figures, archival research of Florida newspapers, analysis of public comments on the NHC cone of uncertainty graphic and a multiagency study of 2004 hurricane behavior. At that time, the hurricane forecast graphic was subject to misinterpretation by many members of the public. We identify several characteristics of this graphic that contributed to public misinterpretation. Residents overemphasized the specific track of the eye, failed to grasp the width of hurricanes, and generally did not recognize the timing of the passage of the hurricane. Little training was provided to emergency response managers in the interpretation of forecasts. In the following year, Katrina became a national scandal, further demonstrating the limitations of the cone as a means of leading to appropriate responses to forecasts. In the second half of the first decade of the 21st century, three major changes occurred in hurricane forecast communication: the forecasts themselves improved in terms of accuracy and lead time, the NHC made minor changes in the graphics and expanded the explanatory material that accompanies the graphics, and some efforts were made to reach out to emergency response planners and municipal officials to enhance their understanding of the forecasts and graphics. There were some improvements in the responses to Ike, though a number of deaths were due to inadequate evacuations, and property damage probably

  7. How to evaluate an Early Warning System? Towards a United Statistical Framework for Assessing Financial Crises Forecasting Methods

    OpenAIRE

    Candelon, B.; Dumitrescu, E-I.; Hurlin, C.

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a new statistical framework originating from the traditional credit-scoring literature, to evaluate currency crises Early Warning Systems (EWS). Based on an assessment of the predictive power of panel logit and Markov frameworks, the panel logit model is outperforming the Markov switching specitcations. Furthermore, the introduction of forward-looking variables clearly improves the forecasting properties of the EWS. This improvement confirms the adequacy of the second gene...

  8. Performance and Quality Assessment of the Forthcoming Copernicus Marine Service Global Ocean Monitoring and Forecasting Real-Time System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lellouche, J. M.; Le Galloudec, O.; Greiner, E.; Garric, G.; Regnier, C.; Drillet, Y.

    2016-02-01

    Mercator Ocean currently delivers in real-time daily services (weekly analyses and daily forecast) with a global 1/12° high resolution system. The model component is the NEMO platform driven at the surface by the IFS ECMWF atmospheric analyses and forecasts. Observations are assimilated by means of a reduced-order Kalman filter with a 3D multivariate modal decomposition of the forecast error. It includes an adaptive-error estimate and a localization algorithm. Along track altimeter data, satellite Sea Surface Temperature and in situ temperature and salinity vertical profiles are jointly assimilated to estimate the initial conditions for numerical ocean forecasting. A 3D-Var scheme provides a correction for the slowly-evolving large-scale biases in temperature and salinity.Since May 2015, Mercator Ocean opened the Copernicus Marine Service (CMS) and is in charge of the global ocean analyses and forecast, at eddy resolving resolution. In this context, R&D activities have been conducted at Mercator Ocean these last years in order to improve the real-time 1/12° global system for the next CMS version in 2016. The ocean/sea-ice model and the assimilation scheme benefit among others from the following improvements: large-scale and objective correction of atmospheric quantities with satellite data, new Mean Dynamic Topography taking into account the last version of GOCE geoid, new adaptive tuning of some observational errors, new Quality Control on the assimilated temperature and salinity vertical profiles based on dynamic height criteria, assimilation of satellite sea-ice concentration, new freshwater runoff from ice sheets melting …This presentation doesn't focus on the impact of each update, but rather on the overall behavior of the system integrating all updates. This assessment reports on the products quality improvements, highlighting the level of performance and the reliability of the new system.

  9. Medium-range fire weather forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.O. Roads; K. Ueyoshi; S.C. Chen; J. Alpert; F. Fujioka

    1991-01-01

    The forecast skill of theNational Meteorological Center's medium range forecast (MRF) numerical forecasts of fire weather variables is assessed for the period June 1,1988 to May 31,1990. Near-surface virtual temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and a derived fire weather index (FWI) are forecast well by the MRF model. However, forecast relative humidity has...

  10. Assessing the Effects of Climate Variability on Orange Yield in Florida to Reduce Production Forecast Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Concha Larrauri, P.

    2015-12-01

    Orange production in Florida has experienced a decline over the past decade. Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 greatly affected production, almost to the same degree as strong freezes that occurred in the 1980's. The spread of the citrus greening disease after the hurricanes has also contributed to a reduction in orange production in Florida. The occurrence of hurricanes and diseases cannot easily be predicted but the additional effects of climate on orange yield can be studied and incorporated into existing production forecasts that are based on physical surveys, such as the October Citrus forecast issued every year by the USDA. Specific climate variables ocurring before and after the October forecast is issued can have impacts on flowering, orange drop rates, growth, and maturation, and can contribute to the forecast error. Here we present a methodology to incorporate local climate variables to predict the USDA's orange production forecast error, and we study the local effects of climate on yield in different counties in Florida. This information can aid farmers to gain an insight on what is to be expected during the orange production cycle, and can help supply chain managers to better plan their strategy.

  11. Assessing the potential for improving S2S forecast skill through multimodel ensembling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigaud, N.; Robertson, A. W.; Tippett, M. K.; Wang, L.; Bell, M. J.

    2016-12-01

    Non-linear logistic regression is well suited to probability forecasting and has been successfully applied in the past to ensemble weather and climate predictions, providing access to the full probabilities distribution without any Gaussian assumption. However, little work has been done at sub-monthly lead times where relatively small re-forecast ensembles and lengths represent new challenges for which post-processing avenues have yet to be investigated. A promising approach consists in extending the definition of non-linear logistic regression by including the quantile of the forecast distribution as one of the predictors. So-called Extended Logistic Regression (ELR), which enables mutually consistent individual threshold probabilities, is here applied to ECMWF, CFSv2 and CMA re-forecasts from the S2S database in order to produce rainfall probabilities at weekly resolution. The ELR model is trained on seasonally-varying tercile categories computed for lead times of 1 to 4 weeks. It is then tested in a cross-validated manner, i.e. allowing real-time predictability applications, to produce rainfall tercile probabilities from individual weekly hindcasts that are finally combined by equal pooling. Results will be discussed over a broader North American region, where individual and MME forecasts generated out to 4 weeks lead are characterized by good probabilistic reliability but low sharpness, exhibiting systematically more skill in winter than summer.

  12. Assessing the impact of different satellite retrieval methods on forecast available potential energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittaker, Linda M.; Horn, Lyle H.

    1990-01-01

    The effects of the inclusion of satellite temperature retrieval data, and of different satellite retrieval methods, on forecasts made with the NASA Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) fourth-order model were investigated using, as the parameter, the available potential energy (APE) in its isentropic form. Calculation of the APE were used to study the differences in the forecast sets both globally and in the Northern Hemisphere during 72-h forecast period. The analysis data sets used for the forecasts included one containing the NESDIS TIROS-N retrievals, the GLA retrievals using the physical inversion method, and a third, which did not contain satellite data, used as a control; two data sets, with and without satellite data, were used for verification. For all three data sets, the Northern Hemisphere values for the total APE showed an increase throughout the forecast period, mostly due to an increase in the zonal component, in contrast to the verification sets, which showed a steady level of total APE.

  13. Rapid assessment of nonlinear optical propagation effects in dielectrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyo, J. del; de la Cruz, A. Ruiz; Grace, E.; Ferrer, A.; Siegel, J.; Pasquazi, A.; Assanto, G.; Solis, J.

    2015-01-01

    Ultrafast laser processing applications need fast approaches to assess the nonlinear propagation of the laser beam in order to predict the optimal range of processing parameters in a wide variety of cases. We develop here a method based on the simple monitoring of the nonlinear beam shaping against numerical prediction. The numerical code solves the nonlinear Schrödinger equation with nonlinear absorption under simplified conditions by employing a state-of-the art computationally efficient approach. By comparing with experimental results we can rapidly estimate the nonlinear refractive index and nonlinear absorption coefficients of the material. The validity of this approach has been tested in a variety of experiments where nonlinearities play a key role, like spatial soliton shaping or fs-laser waveguide writing. The approach provides excellent results for propagated power densities for which free carrier generation effects can be neglected. Above such a threshold, the peculiarities of the nonlinear propagation of elliptical beams enable acquiring an instantaneous picture of the deposition of energy inside the material realistic enough to estimate the effective nonlinear refractive index and nonlinear absorption coefficients that can be used for predicting the spatial distribution of energy deposition inside the material and controlling the beam in the writing process. PMID:25564243

  14. Rapid assessment of avoidable blindness in the Occupied Palestinian Territories.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Far Chiang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: There are no recent data on the prevalence and causes of blindness in the Occupied Palestinian Territories. The aim of our study was to estimate the prevalence and causes of blindness and visual impairment in the population aged 50 years and above in the Occupied Palestinian Territories using the Rapid Assessment of Avoidable Blindness (RAAB survey method. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Clusters of 40 people who were 50 years and above were selected with probability proportionate to size using a multistage cluster random sampling method. Participants received a comprehensive ophthalmic examination in their homes, including visual acuity testing by one of three experienced ophthalmologists. The principal cause for visual loss was determined by an experienced ophthalmologist using portable diagnostic instruments. Information about previous cataract surgery, satisfaction with surgery and barriers to cataract surgery were collected. The prevalence of self-reported diabetes was also determined. The prevalence of bilateral blindness (VAor=3/60 and or=6/60 and or=6/18, 23.2% had a borderline outcome (VAor=6/60 and 22.3% had a poor outcome (VAor=50 year age group was 26.4% (95% CI: 24.9-27.9. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of blindness suggests that significant numbers of people in the Occupied Palestinian Territories exist who do not access eye care - predominantly women and those residing in Gaza. Programmes need to focus on maximizing the use of current services by these excluded groups.

  15. Competence of Litter Ants for Rapid Biodiversity Assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. H. Saumya E. Silva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Rapid Biodiversity Assessment approaches associated with focusing taxa have overcome many of the problems related to large scale surveys. This study examined the suitability of litter ants as a focusing taxon by checking whether diversity and species assemblages of litter ants reflect the overall picture of arthropod diversity and assemblages in leaf litter in two vegetation types: secondary forest and pine plantation in Upper Hanthana forest reserve, Sri Lanka. In each vegetation type, arthropods were sampled using three sampling methods (Winkler extraction, hand collection, and pitfall traps along three 100 m line transects. From the two sites, 1887 litter ants (34 species and 3488 litter arthropods (52 species were collected. Species assemblages composition of both ants and other arthropods differed significantly between the two sites (ANOSIM, p=0.001 with both groups generating distinct clusters for the two sites (SIMPROF, p=0.001. But there was no significant correlation (p>0.05 between abundance and richness of litter ants and those of other arthropods in both vegetation types. The overall finding suggests that the litter ants do not reflect the holistic picture of arthropod diversity and assemblages in leaf litter, but the quality of the habitat for the survival of all litter arthropods.

  16. The FORECAST study - Focal recurrent assessment and salvage treatment for radiorecurrent prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanthabalan, A; Shah, T; Arya, M; Punwani, S; Bomanji, J; Haroon, A; Illing, R O; Latifoltojar, A; Freeman, A; Jameson, C; van der Meulen, J; Charman, S; Emberton, M; Ahmed, H U

    2015-09-01

    One-third of men may experience biochemical failure by 8years following radical radiotherapy for localised prostate cancer. Over 90% of men are started on androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) which is non-curative and confers systemic side-effects. Focal salvage therapy (FST) limits collateral tissue damage and may improve therapeutic ratios. In order to deliver FST, distant disease must be ruled-out and intra-prostatic disease must be accurately detected, localised and characterised. FORECAST - Focal Recurrent Assessment and Salvage Treatment - is a study designed to evaluate a novel imaging-based diagnostic and therapeutic complex intervention pathway for men who fail radiotherapy. Men with biochemical failure following radical prostate radiotherapy, prior to salvage therapy will be recruited. They will undergo whole-body multi-parametric MRI (WB-MRI), choline PET/CT, bone-scan and pelvic-mpMRI and then MRI transperineal-targeted biopsies (MRI-TB) and Transperineal Template Prostate Mapping Biopsy (TPM). Those suitable for FST will undergo either high intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) or cryotherapy. Primary outcome measures: a) the accuracy of WB-MRI to detect distant metastatic disease; b) accuracy of prostate mpMRI in local detection of radiorecurrent prostate cancer; c) detection accuracy of MRI-TB; and d) rate of urinary incontinence following FST. Focal salvage therapy may confer lower rates of morbidity whilst retaining disease control. In order to deliver FST, intra- and extra-prostatic disease must be detected early and localised accurately. Novel diagnostic techniques including WB-MRI and MRI-TB may improve the detection of distant and local disease whilst reducing healthcare burdens compared with current imaging and biopsy strategies. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  17. CTER—Rapid estimation of CTF parameters with error assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Penczek, Pawel A., E-mail: Pawel.A.Penczek@uth.tmc.edu [Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, The University of Texas Medical School, 6431 Fannin MSB 6.220, Houston, TX 77054 (United States); Fang, Jia [Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, The University of Texas Medical School, 6431 Fannin MSB 6.220, Houston, TX 77054 (United States); Li, Xueming; Cheng, Yifan [The Keck Advanced Microscopy Laboratory, Department of Biochemistry and Biophysics, University of California, San Francisco, CA 94158 (United States); Loerke, Justus; Spahn, Christian M.T. [Institut für Medizinische Physik und Biophysik, Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Charitéplatz 1, 10117 Berlin (Germany)

    2014-05-01

    In structural electron microscopy, the accurate estimation of the Contrast Transfer Function (CTF) parameters, particularly defocus and astigmatism, is of utmost importance for both initial evaluation of micrograph quality and for subsequent structure determination. Due to increases in the rate of data collection on modern microscopes equipped with new generation cameras, it is also important that the CTF estimation can be done rapidly and with minimal user intervention. Finally, in order to minimize the necessity for manual screening of the micrographs by a user it is necessary to provide an assessment of the errors of fitted parameters values. In this work we introduce CTER, a CTF parameters estimation method distinguished by its computational efficiency. The efficiency of the method makes it suitable for high-throughput EM data collection, and enables the use of a statistical resampling technique, bootstrap, that yields standard deviations of estimated defocus and astigmatism amplitude and angle, thus facilitating the automation of the process of screening out inferior micrograph data. Furthermore, CTER also outputs the spatial frequency limit imposed by reciprocal space aliasing of the discrete form of the CTF and the finite window size. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of CTER using a data set collected on a 300 kV Tecnai Polara (FEI) using the K2 Summit DED camera in super-resolution counting mode. Using CTER we obtained a structure of the 80S ribosome whose large subunit had a resolution of 4.03 Å without, and 3.85 Å with, inclusion of astigmatism parameters. - Highlights: • We describe methodology for estimation of CTF parameters with error assessment. • Error estimates provide means for automated elimination of inferior micrographs. • High computational efficiency allows real-time monitoring of EM data quality. • Accurate CTF estimation yields structure of the 80S human ribosome at 3.85 Å.

  18. The first rapid assessment of avoidable blindness (RAAB in Thailand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saichin Isipradit

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The majority of vision loss is preventable or treatable. Population surveys are crucial for planning, implementation, and monitoring policies and interventions to eliminate avoidable blindness and visual impairments. This is the first rapid assessment of avoidable blindness (RAAB study in Thailand. METHODS: A cross-sectional study of a population in Thailand age 50 years old or over aimed to assess the prevalence and causes of blindness and visual impairments. Using the Thailand National Census 2010 as the sampling frame, a stratified four-stage cluster sampling based on a probability proportional to size was conducted in 176 enumeration areas from 11 provinces. Participants received comprehensive eye examination by ophthalmologists. RESULTS: The age and sex adjusted prevalence of blindness (presenting visual acuity (VA <20/400, severe visual impairment (VA <20/200 but ≥20/400, and moderate visual impairment (VA <20/70 but ≥20/200 were 0.6% (95% CI: 0.5-0.8, 1.3% (95% CI: 1.0-1.6, 12.6% (95% CI: 10.8-14.5. There was no significant difference among the four regions of Thailand. Cataract was the main cause of vision loss accounted for 69.7% of blindness. Cataract surgical coverage in persons was 95.1% for cut off VA of 20/400. Refractive errors, diabetic retinopathy, glaucoma, and corneal opacities were responsible for 6.0%, 5.1%, 4.0%, and 2.0% of blindness respectively. CONCLUSION: Thailand is on track to achieve the goal of VISION 2020. However, there is still much room for improvement. Policy refinements and innovative interventions are recommended to alleviate blindness and visual impairments especially regarding the backlog of blinding cataract, management of non-communicative, chronic, age-related eye diseases such as glaucoma, age-related macular degeneration, and diabetic retinopathy, prevention of childhood blindness, and establishment of a robust eye health information system.

  19. Assessing the value of post-processed state-of-the-art long-term weather forecast ensembles for agricultural water management mediated by farmers' behaviours

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yu; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    Recent advances in modelling of coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics significantly improved skills of long-term climate forecast from global circulation models (GCMs). These more accurate weather predictions are supposed to be a valuable support to farmers in optimizing farming operations (e.g. crop choice, cropping and watering time) and for more effectively coping with the adverse impacts of climate variability. Yet, assessing how actually valuable this information can be to a farmer is not straightforward and farmers' response must be taken into consideration. Indeed, in the context of agricultural systems potentially useful forecast information should alter stakeholders' expectation, modify their decisions, and ultimately produce an impact on their performance. Nevertheless, long-term forecast are mostly evaluated in terms of accuracy (i.e., forecast quality) by comparing hindcast and observed values and only few studies investigated the operational value of forecast looking at the gain of utility within the decision-making context, e.g. by considering the derivative of forecast information, such as simulated crop yields or simulated soil moisture, which are essential to farmers' decision-making process. In this study, we contribute a step further in the assessment of the operational value of long-term weather forecasts products by embedding these latter into farmers' behavioral models. This allows a more critical assessment of the forecast value mediated by the end-users' perspective, including farmers' risk attitudes and behavioral patterns. Specifically, we evaluate the operational value of thirteen state-of-the-art long-range forecast products against climatology forecast and empirical prediction (i.e. past year climate and historical average) within an integrated agronomic modeling framework embedding an implicit model of the farmers' decision-making process. Raw ensemble datasets are bias-corrected and downscaled using a stochastic weather generator, in

  20. Evaluating probability forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Lai, Tze Leung; Gross, Shulamith T.; Shen, David Bo

    2011-01-01

    Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used to assess the efficacy of the forecast probabilities after observing the occurrence, or nonoccurrence, of the predicted events. We develop herein a statistical theory for scoring rules and propose an alternative approach to the evaluation of probability for...

  1. Operational skill assessment of the IBI-MFC Ocean Forecasting System within the frame of the CMEMS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorente Jimenez, Pablo; Garcia-Sotillo, Marcos; Amo-Balandron, Arancha; Aznar Lecocq, Roland; Perez Gomez, Begoña; Levier, Bruno; Alvarez-Fanjul, Enrique

    2016-04-01

    Since operational ocean forecasting systems (OOFSs) are increasingly used as tools to support high-stakes decision-making for coastal management, a rigorous skill assessment of model performance becomes essential. In this context, the IBI-MFC (Iberia-Biscay-Ireland Monitoring & Forecasting Centre) has been providing daily ocean model estimates and forecasts for the IBI regional seas since 2011, first in the frame of MyOcean projects and later as part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). A comprehensive web validation tool named NARVAL (North Atlantic Regional VALidation) has been developed to routinely monitor IBI performance and to evaluate model's veracity and prognostic capabilities. Three-dimensional comparisons are carried out on a different time basis ('online mode' - daily verifications - and 'delayed mode' - for longer time periods -) using a broad variety of in-situ (buoys, tide-gauges, ARGO-floats, drifters and gliders) and remote-sensing (satellite and HF radars) observational sources as reference fields to validate against the NEMO model solution. Product quality indicators and meaningful skill metrics are automatically computed not only averaged over the entire IBI domain but also over specific sub-regions of particular interest from a user perspective (i.e. coastal or shelf areas) in order to determine IBI spatial and temporal uncertainty levels. A complementary aspect of NARVAL web tool is the intercomparison of different CMEMS forecast model solutions in overlapping areas. Noticeable efforts are in progress in order to quantitatively assess the quality and consistency of nested system outputs by setting up specific intercomparison exercises on different temporal and spatial scales, encompassing global configurations (CMEMS Global system), regional applications (NWS and MED ones) and local high-resolution coastal models (i.e. the PdE SAMPA system in the Gibraltar Strait). NARVAL constitutes a powerful approach to increase

  2. Initial assessment of a multi-model approach to spring flood forecasting in Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, J.; Uvo, C. B.; Foster, K.; Yang, W.

    2015-06-01

    Hydropower is a major energy source in Sweden and proper reservoir management prior to the spring flood onset is crucial for optimal production. This requires useful forecasts of the accumulated discharge in the spring flood period (i.e. the spring-flood volume, SFV). Today's SFV forecasts are generated using a model-based climatological ensemble approach, where time series of precipitation and temperature from historical years are used to force a calibrated and initialised set-up of the HBV model. In this study, a number of new approaches to spring flood forecasting, that reflect the latest developments with respect to analysis and modelling on seasonal time scales, are presented and evaluated. Three main approaches, represented by specific methods, are evaluated in SFV hindcasts for three main Swedish rivers over a 10-year period with lead times between 0 and 4 months. In the first approach, historically analogue years with respect to the climate in the period preceding the spring flood are identified and used to compose a reduced ensemble. In the second, seasonal meteorological ensemble forecasts are used to drive the HBV model over the spring flood period. In the third approach, statistical relationships between SFV and the large-sale atmospheric circulation are used to build forecast models. None of the new approaches consistently outperform the climatological ensemble approach, but for specific locations and lead times improvements of 20-30 % are found. When combining all forecasts in a weighted multi-model approach, a mean improvement over all locations and lead times of nearly 10 % was indicated. This demonstrates the potential of the approach and further development and optimisation into an operational system is ongoing.

  3. Using forecast and observed weather data to assess performance of forecast products in identifying heat waves and estimating heat wave effects on mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kai; Chen, Yeh-Hsin; Schwartz, Joel D; Rood, Richard B; O'Neill, Marie S

    2014-09-01

    Heat wave and health warning systems are activated based on forecasts of health-threatening hot weather. We estimated heat-mortality associations based on forecast and observed weather data in Detroit, Michigan, and compared the accuracy of forecast products for predicting heat waves. We derived and compared apparent temperature (AT) and heat wave days (with heat waves defined as ≥ 2 days of daily mean AT ≥ 95th percentile of warm-season average) from weather observations and six different forecast products. We used Poisson regression with and without adjustment for ozone and/or PM10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm) to estimate and compare associations of daily all-cause mortality with observed and predicted AT and heat wave days. The 1-day-ahead forecast of a local operational product, Revised Digital Forecast, had about half the number of false positives compared with all other forecasts. On average, controlling for heat waves, days with observed AT = 25.3°C were associated with 3.5% higher mortality (95% CI: -1.6, 8.8%) than days with AT = 8.5°C. Observed heat wave days were associated with 6.2% higher mortality (95% CI: -0.4, 13.2%) than non-heat wave days. The accuracy of predictions varied, but associations between mortality and forecast heat generally tended to overestimate heat effects, whereas associations with forecast heat waves tended to underestimate heat wave effects, relative to associations based on observed weather metrics. Our findings suggest that incorporating knowledge of local conditions may improve the accuracy of predictions used to activate heat wave and health warning systems.

  4. An Integrated Risk Approach for Assessing the Use of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts in Hydroelectric Reservoir Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, T. S.; Wigmosta, M.; Barco, J.; Voisin, N.; Bier, A.; Coleman, A.; Skaggs, R.

    2012-12-01

    This paper presents an integrated risk approach using ensemble streamflow forecasts for optimizing hydro-electric power generation. Uncertainty in the streamflow forecasts are translated into integrated risk by calculating the deviation of an optimized release schedule that simultaneously maximizes power generation and environmental performance from release schedules that maximize the two objectives individually. The deviations from each target are multiplied by the probability of occurrence and then summed across all probabilities to get the integrated risk. The integrated risk is used to determine which operational scheme exposes the operator to the least amount of risk or conversely, what are the consequences of basing future operations on a particular prediction. Decisions can be made with regards to the tradeoff between power generation, environmental performance, and exposure to risk. The Hydropower Seasonal Concurrent Optimization for Power and Environment (HydroSCOPE) model developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is used to model the flow, temperature, and power generation and is coupled with the DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) optimization package to identify the maximum potential power generation, the maximum environmental performance, and the optimal operational scheme that maximizes both for each instance of the ensemble forecasts. The ensemble forecasts were developed in a collaborative effort between the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the University of Washington to develop an Enhanced Hydrologic Forecasting System (EHFS) that incorporates advanced ensemble forecasting approaches and algorithms, spatiotemporal datasets, and automated data acquisition and processing. Both the HydroSCOPE model and the EHFS forecast tool are being developed as part of a larger, multi-laboratory water-use optimization project funded through the US Department of Energy. The simulations were based on the

  5. Landslides in Nicaragua - Mapping, Inventory, Hazard Assessment, Vulnerability Reduction, and Forecasting Attempts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dévoli, G.; Strauch, W.; Álvarez, A.; Muñoz, A.; Kjekstad, O.

    2009-04-01

    A successful landslide hazard and risk assessment requires awareness and good understanding of the potential landslide problems within the geographic area involved. However, this requirement is not always met in developing countries where population, scientific community, and the government may not be aware of the landslide threat. The landslide hazard assessment is often neglected or is based on sparse and not well documented technical information. In Nicaragua (Central America), the basic conditions for landslide hazard and risk assessment were first created after the catastrophic landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in October 1998. A single landslide took the life of thousands of people at Casita volcano forcing entire communities to be evacuated or relocated and, furthermore, thousands of smaller landslides caused loss of fertile soils and pasture lands, and made serious damages to the infrastructure. Since those events occurred, the public awareness has increased and the country relies now on new local and national governmental laws and policies, on a number of landslide investigations, and on educational and training programs. Dozens of geologists have been capacitated to investigate landslide prone areas, The Instituto Nicaragüense de Estudios Territoriales (INETER), governmental geo-scientific institution, has assumed the responsibility to help land-use planners and public officials to reduce geological hazard losses. They are committed to work cooperatively with national, international, and local agencies, universities and the private sector to provide scientific information and improve public safety through forecasting and warnings. However, in order to provide successful long-term landslide hazard assessment, the institutions must face challenges related to the scarcity and varied quality of available landslide information; collection and access to dispersed data and documents; organization of landslide information in a form that can be easy to

  6. Real-Time Assessment of the 16 September 2015 Chile Tsunami and Implications for Near-Field Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Liujuan; Titov, Vasily V.; Moore, Christopher; Wei, Yong

    2016-02-01

    The magnitude 8.3 earthquake in central Chile on 16 September 2015 and the resulting tsunami severely affected the region, with 15 deaths ( Onemi in Monitoreo por sismo de mayor intensidad. (In Spanish) [Available at: http://www.onemi.cl/alerta/se-declara-alerta-roja-por-sismo-de-mayor-intensidad-y-alarma-de-tsunami/], 2015), over one million evacuated, and flooding in nearby coastal cities. We present our real-time assessment of the 2015 Chile tsunami using the Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis system, and post-event analyses with local community models in Chile. We evaluate three real-time tsunami sources, which were inverted at the time that the first quarter-, half-, and full-wave passed the first tsunameter (DART 32402, located approximately 580 km north-northwest of the epicenter), respectively. Measurement comparisons from 26 deep-ocean tsunameters and 38 coastal tide stations show that good model accuracies are achieved for all three sources, particularly for the local sites that recorded the most destructive waves. The study highlights the forecast speed, time and accuracy dependence, and their implications for the local forecast capability. Our analyses suggest that the tsunami's main origination area is about 100-200 km long and 100 km wide, to the north of the earthquake epicenter along the trench and the total estimated tsunami wave energy is 7.9 × 1013 J (with 13 % uncertainty). The study provides important guidelines for the earliest reliable estimate of tsunami energy and local forecasts. They can be obtained with the first quarter-wave of tsunameter recording. These results are also confirmed by a forecast analysis of the 2011 Japan tsunami. Furthermore, we find that the first half-wave tsunameter data are sufficient to accurately forecast the 2015 Chile tsunami, due to the specific orientation between the nearest tsunameter and the source. The study also suggests expanding the operational use of the local community models in real

  7. Rapid Assessment Medical Support (RAMS) for active shooter incidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mechem, C Crawford; Bossert, Richard; Baldini, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    This country has witnessed a steady increase in the number of active shooter incidents in recent years. The traditional emergency medical services (EMS) response to such incidents has been to stage at a safe distance until the scene has been secured by law enforcement. Such an approach may lead to unnecessary delays in medical care and potentially needless loss of life. To address this issue locally, the Philadelphia Fire Department (PFD) and the Philadelphia Police Department (PPD) collaborated to develop the Rapid Assessment Medical Support (RAMS) program. All PFD paramedics have been equipped and trained to move with PPD officers into a scene that has been cleared by police but not yet secured in order to initiate emergency care, with an emphasis on hemorrhage control. Patients are then extracted to awaiting EMS resources in the cold zone. The history behind the program and the challenges and obstacles that had to be addressed in its development are described. These included initial and ongoing training and funding sources; buy-in from risk management, labor, and the individual providers; whether only paramedics should be included in the RAMS program or if the PFD's firefighter-EMTs should be included as well; the potential for mission creep as police recognized the value of this asset and its potential application to other scenarios; and how to involve the many nonmunicipal ambulance services that are not involved in the routine operation of Philadelphia's 9-1-1 system. To date, RAMS teams have been activated on multiple occasions, but fortunately the incidents were resolved without injury or loss of life. However, the program provides another valuable tool with which the City of Philadelphia can respond should another active shooter incident occur.

  8. Rapid assessment of avoidable blindness in Nakuru district, Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathenge, Wanjiku; Kuper, Hannah; Limburg, Hans; Polack, Sarah; Onyango, Oscar; Nyaga, Godfrey; Foster, Allen

    2007-03-01

    To estimate the prevalence of avoidable blindness in > or =50-year-olds in Nakuru district, Kenya, and to evaluate the Rapid Assessment for Avoidable Blindness (RAAB), a new methodology to measure the magnitude and causes of blindness. Cross-sectional population-based survey. Seventy-six clusters of 50 people 50 years or older were selected by probability proportionate to size sampling of clusters. Households within clusters were selected through compact segment sampling. Three thousand seven hundred eighty-four eligible subjects were selected, of whom 3503 (92.6%) were examined. Participants underwent a comprehensive ophthalmic examination in their homes by an ophthalmologist, including measurement of visual acuity (VA) with a tumbling-E chart and the diagnosis of the principal cause of visual impairment. Those who had undergone cataract surgery were questioned about the details of the operation and their satisfaction with surgery. Those who were visually impaired from cataract were asked why they had not gone for surgery. Visual acuity and principal cause of VA or =6/60) was 5.8% (95% CI, 4.8%-6.8%) in the sample. Definite avoidable causes of blindness (i.e., cataract, refractive error, trachoma, and corneal scarring) were responsible for 69.6% of bilateral blindness and 74.9% of bilateral visual impairment. Cataract was the major cause of blindness (42.0%) and visual impairment (36.0%). The cataract surgical coverage was high, with 78% of those with bilateral cataract who needed surgery having had surgery at VA or =50-year-olds in Nakuru district was low, in part due to the high cataract surgical coverage. The RAAB is easy to use and inexpensive and provides information about the magnitude and causes of avoidable blindness that can be used for planning and monitoring eye care services.

  9. Assessing Consistency between EOS MLS and ECMWF Analyzed and Forecast Estimates of Cloud Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, J.; Waliser, D.; Jiang, J.; Tompkins, A.

    2006-12-01

    Present-day shortcomings in the representation of cloud processes in global climate models (GCMs) introduce a major source of error for both weather and climate forecasts as well as account for the principal uncertainty in climate change predictions. An ongoing challenge in rectifying these shortcomings is the availability of adequate high-quality cloud ice observations. Cloud ice water content (IWC) from MLS retrievals and ECMWF analyses and forecasts are compared for August 2004 to July 2005. ECMWF data are sampled along the MLS tracks and considering retrieval sensitivity. At 147 hPa, there is good spatial agreement, particularly over the oceans, with the analyses biased high by about 10%. Over tropical landmasses however, the analyses are biased low by up to 50%. This underestimation grows in the forecasts, with a 40% tropical average reduction by day 10. At 215hPa, the bias structure is similar to 147 hPa, although the analyses is biased low everywhere, from about 10-60%. However, at this level the forecast tropical average IWC undergoes little change. The temporal evolution of these biases, along with a systematic decrease (about 50%) in the upward vertical velocity over the warm pool, and biases in precipitation and radiative fluxes, indicates an intrinsic lack of modeled deep convection over the maritime continent and equatorial Africa and America.

  10. The Main Pillar: Assessment of Space Weather Observational Asset Performance Supporting Nowcasting, Forecasting and Research to Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posner, Arik; Hesse, Michael; SaintCyr, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

  11. Rapid assessment of injection practices in Cambodia, 2002

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goldstein Susan

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Injection overuse and unsafe injection practices facilitate transmission of bloodborne pathogens such as hepatitis B virus (HBV, hepatitis C virus (HCV, and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV. Anecdotal reports of unsafe and unnecessary therapeutic injections and the high prevalence of HBV (8.0%, HCV (6.5%, and HIV (2.6% infection in Cambodia have raised concern over injection safety. To estimate the magnitude and patterns of such practices, a rapid assessment of injection practices was conducted. Methods We surveyed a random sample of the general population in Takeo Province and convenience samples of prescribers and injection providers in Takeo Province and Phnom Penh city regarding injection-related knowledge, attitudes, and practices. Injection providers were observed administering injections. Data were collected using standardized methods adapted from the World Health Organization safe injection assessment guidelines. Results Among the general population sample (n = 500, the overall injection rate was 5.9 injections per person-year, with 40% of participants reporting receipt of ≥ 1 injection during the previous 6 months. Therapeutic injections, intravenous infusions, and immunizations accounted for 74%, 16% and 10% of injections, respectively. The majority (>85% of injections were received in the private sector. All participants who recalled their last injection reported the injection was administered with a newly opened disposable syringe and needle. Prescribers (n = 60 reported that 47% of the total prescriptions they wrote included a therapeutic injection or infusion. Among injection providers (n = 60, 58% recapped the syringe after use and 13% did not dispose of the used needle and syringe appropriately. Over half (53% of the providers reported a needlestick injury during the previous 12 months. Ninety percent of prescribers and injection providers were aware HBV, HCV, and HIV were transmitted through unsafe

  12. Application of numerical weather prediction in wind power forecasting: Assessment of the diurnal cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Heppelmann

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available For a secure integration of weather dependent renewable energies in Germany's mixed power supply, precise forecasts of expected wind power are indispensable. These in turn are heavily dependent on numerical weather prediction (NWP. With this relevant area of application, NWP models need to be evaluated concerning new variables such as wind speed at hub heights of wind power plants. This article presents verification results of the deterministic NWP forecasts of the global ICON model, its ICON-EU nest, the COSMO-EU, and the COSMO-DE as well as of the ensemble prediction system COSMO-DE-EPS of the German National Weather Service (DWD, against wind mast observations. The focus is on the diurnal cycle in the Planetary Boundary Layer as wind power forecasts for Germany exhibit pronounced systematic amplitude and phase errors in the morning and evening hours. NWP forecasts with lead times up to 48 hours are examined. All considered NWP models reveal shortcomings concerning the representation of the diurnal cycle. Especially in summertime at onshore locations, when Low-Level Jets form, nocturnal wind speeds at hub height are underestimated. In the COSMO model, stable conditions are not sufficiently reflected in the first part of the night and the vertical mixing after sunrise establishes too late. The verification results of the COSMO-DE-EPS confirm the deficiencies of the deterministic forecasts. The deficiencies are present in all ensemble members and thus indicate potential for improvement not only in the model physics parameterization but also concerning the physical ensemble perturbations.

  13. Rapid ethnographic assessment of breastfeeding practices in periurban Mexico City

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Guerrero, M L; Morrow, R C; Calva, J J; Ortega-Gallegos, H; Weller, S C; Ruiz-Palacios, G M; Morrow, A L

    1999-01-01

    Before carrying out a breastfeeding promotion programme in a periurban area of Mexico City, we conducted a rapid ethnographic study to determine the factors associated with absence of exclusive breastfeeding...

  14. Assessing the Utility of Seasonal SST Forecasts to the Fisheries Management Process: a Pacific Sardine Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tommasi, D.; Stock, C. A.

    2016-02-01

    It is well established that environmental fluctuations affect the productivity of numerous fish stocks. Recent advances in prediction capability of dynamical global forecast systems, such as the state of the art NOAA Geophysical Fluid dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) 2.5-FLOR model, allow for climate predictions of fisheries-relevant variables at temporal scales relevant to the fishery management decision making process. We demonstrate that the GFDL FLOR model produces skillful seasonal SST anomaly predictions over the continental shelf , where most of the global fish yield is generated. The availability of skillful SST projections at this "fishery relevant" scale raises the potential for better constrained estimates of future fish biomass and improved harvest decisions. We assessed the utility of seasonal SST coastal shelf predictions for fisheries management using the case study of Pacific sardine. This fishery was selected because it is one of the few to already incorporate SST into its harvest guideline, and show a robust recruitment-SST relationship. We quantified the effectiveness of management under the status quo harvest guideline (HG) and under alternative HGs including future information at different levels of uncertainty. Usefulness of forecast SST to management was dependent on forecast uncertainty. If the standard deviation of the SST anomaly forecast residuals was less than 0.65, the alternative HG produced higher long-term yield and stock biomass, and reduced the probability of either catch or stock biomass falling below management-set threshold values as compared to the status quo. By contrast, probability of biomass falling to extremely low values increased as compared to the status quo for all alternative HGs except for a perfectly known future SST case. To safeguard against occurrence of such low probability but costly events, a harvest cutoff biomass also has to be implemented into the HG.

  15. Regional transport modelling for nitrate trend assessment and forecasting in a chalk aquifer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orban, Philippe; Brouyère, Serge; Batlle-Aguilar, Jordi; Couturier, Julie; Goderniaux, Pascal; Leroy, Mathieu; Maloszewski, Piotr; Dassargues, Alain

    2010-10-21

    Regional degradation of groundwater resources by nitrate has become one of the main challenges for water managers worldwide. Regulations have been defined to reverse observed nitrate trends in groundwater bodies, such as the Water Framework Directive and the Groundwater Daughter Directive in the European Union. In such a context, one of the main challenges remains to develop efficient approaches for groundwater quality assessment at regional scale, including quantitative numerical modelling, as a decision support for groundwater management. A new approach combining the use of environmental tracers and the innovative 'Hybrid Finite Element Mixing Cell' (HFEMC) modelling technique is developed to study and forecast the groundwater quality at the regional scale, with an application to a regional chalk aquifer in the Geer basin in Belgium. Tritium data and nitrate time series are used to produce a conceptual model for regional groundwater flow and contaminant transport in the combined unsaturated and saturated zones of the chalk aquifer. This shows that the spatial distribution of the contamination in the Geer basin is essentially linked to the hydrodynamic conditions prevailing in the basin, more precisely to groundwater age and mixing and not to the spatial patterns of land use or local hydrodispersive processes. A three-dimensional regional scale groundwater flow and solute transport model is developed. It is able to reproduce the spatial patterns of tritium and nitrate and the observed nitrate trends in the chalk aquifer and it is used to predict the evolution of nitrate concentrations in the basin. The modelling application shows that the global inertia of groundwater quality is strong in the basin and trend reversal is not expected to occur before the 2015 deadline fixed by the European Water Framework Directive. The expected time required for trend reversal ranges between 5 and more than 50 years, depending on the location in the basin and the expected reduction

  16. Forty and 80 GHz technology assessment and forecast including executive summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazur, D. G.; Mackey, R. J., Jr.; Tanner, S. G.; Altman, F. J.; Nicholas, J. J., Jr.; Duchaine, K. A.

    1976-01-01

    The results of a survey to determine current demand and to forecast growth in demand for use of the 40 and 80 GHz bands during the 1980-2000 time period are given. The current state-of-the-art is presented, as well as the technology requirements of current and projected services. Potential developments were identified, and a forecast is made. The impacts of atmospheric attenuation in the 40 and 80 GHz bands were estimated for both with and without diversity. Three services for the 1980-2000 time period -- interactive television, high quality three stereo pair audio, and 30 MB data -- are given with system requirements and up and down-link calculations.

  17. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  18. Assessment of the importance of the current-wave coupling in the shelf ocean forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Jordà

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The effects of wave-current interactions on shelf ocean forecasts is investigated in the framework of the MFSTEP (Mediterranean Forecasting System Project Towards Enviromental Predictions project. A one way sequential coupling approach is adopted to link the wave model (WAM to the circulation model (SYMPHONIE. The coupling of waves and currents has been done considering four main processes: wave refraction due to currents, surface wind drag and bottom drag modifications due to waves, and the wave induced mass flux. The coupled modelling system is implemented in the southern Catalan shelf (NW Mediterranean, a region with characteristics similar to most of the Mediterranean shelves. The sensitivity experiments are run in a typical operational configuration. The wave refraction by currents seems to be not very relevant in a microtidal context such as the western Mediterranean. The main effect of waves on current forecasts is through the modification of the wind drag. The Stokes drift also plays a significant role due to its spatial and temporal characteristics. Finally, the enhanced bottom friction is just noticeable in the inner shelf.

  19. Forecasters priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Cloke, H. L.; Thielen-del Pozo, J.; Balabanova, S.; Daňhelka, J.; Vogelbacher, A.; Salamon, P.; Carrasco, I.; Cabrera-Tordera, A. J.; Corzo-Toscano, M.; Garcia-Padilla, M.; Garcia-Sanchez, R. J.; Ardilouze, C.; Jurela, S.; Terek, B.; Csik, A.; Casey, J.; Stankūnavičius, G.; Ceres, V.; Sprokkereef, E.; Stam, J.; Anghel, E.; Vladikovic, D.; Alionte Eklund, C.; Hjerdt, N.; Djerv, H.; Holmberg, F.; Nilsson, J.; Nyström, K.; Sušnik, M.; Hazlinger, M.; Holubecka, M.

    2013-02-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantages of HEPS are that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed; and that ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the technical aspects of the model systems themselves. However, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention; such as assessment of the full uncertainty in the forecast chain, multimodel approaches, robust forecast skill assessment and further collaboration and knowledge exchange between operational forecasters and the model development community. In light of limited resources we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement in operational HEPS.

  20. Assessing effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakkenes, M.; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Ihle, F.; Leemans, R.; Latour, J.B.

    2002-01-01

    The rapidly increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may lead to significant changes in regional and seasonal climate patterns. Such changes can strongly influence the diversity and distribution of species and, therefore, affect ecosystems and biodiversity. To assess these changes

  1. The usefulness and significance of assessing rapidly progressive spermatozoa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Björndahl, Lars

    2010-01-01

    It is possible and clinically relevant to distinguish between slow and rapid progressive spermatozoa in basic semen analysis. This is discussed in light of the different purposes of semen analysis for the subfertile couple and the male patient. The two groups of progressive spermatozoa should be distinguished to help ensure that pertinent information available in the semen sample is not neglected. PMID:20111079

  2. Rapid assessment tool for tropical cyclone waves and storm surge hazards in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appendini, Christian M.; Rosengaus, Michel; Meza-Padilla, Rafael; Camacho-Magaña, Victor

    2017-04-01

    Mexico is under the constant threat of tropical cyclones generated in the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific oceans. While the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in both basins and providing watch and warning areas information for Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, they are not responsible to issue waves and storm surge hazards. This work presents a quick assessment tool for waves and storm surge hazards developed under conditions that are common to developing countries: tight budget and time constraints, as well as limited numerical modeling capabilities. The system is based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

  3. Rapid Carbon Assessment Project: Data Summary and Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wills, Skye; Loecke, Terry; Roecker, Stephen; Beaudette, Dylan; Libohova, Zamir; Monger, Curtis; Lindbo, David

    2017-04-01

    The Rapid Carbon Assessment (RaCA) project was undertaken to estimate regional soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks across the conterminous United States (CONUS) as a one-time event. Sample locations were selected randomly using the NRI (National Resource Inventory) sampling framework covering all areas in CONUS with SSURGO certified maps as of Dec 2012. Within each of 17 regions, sites were selected by a combination of soil and land use/cover groups (LUGR). At each of more than 6,000 sites five pedons were described and sampled to a depth of 100cm (one central and 4 satellites 30m in each cardinal direction). There were 144,833 samples described from 32,084 pedons at 6, 017 sites. A combination of measurement and modeled bulk density was used for all samples. A visible near-infrared (VNIR) spectrophotometer was used to scan each sample for prediction of soil carbon contents. The samples of each central pedon were analyzed by the Kellogg Soil Survey Laboratory for combustion carbon and calcimeter inorganic carbon. SOC stocks were calculated for each pedon using a standard fixed depth technique to depths of 5, 30 and 100cm. Pedon SOC stocks were transformed to better approach normality before LUGR, regional and land use/cover summaries were calculated. The values reported are geometric means. A detailed spatial map can be produced using LUGR mean assignment to correlated pixels. LUGR values range from 1 to 3,000 Mg ha-1. While some artifacts are visible due to the stratified nature of sampling and extrapolation, the predictions are generally smooth and highlight some distinct geomorphic features including the sandhills in the Great Plains in the central US, mountainous regions in the West and coastal wetlands in the East. Regional averages range from 46 Mg ha-1 in the desert Southwest to 182 Mg ha-1 in the Northeast. Regional trends correlate to climate variables such as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. While land use/cover classes vary in mean values

  4. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  5. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Lisianski, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands in 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  6. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Tau, American Samoa in 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  7. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Farallon de Pajaros, Marianas in 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  8. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Rose, American Samoa in 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  9. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Alamagan, Marianas in 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  10. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Howland, Pacific Remote Island Areas in 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  11. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at French Frigate, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands in 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  12. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Asuncion, Marianas in 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  13. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Pagan, Marianas in 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  14. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Ofu & Olosega, American Samoa in 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  15. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Molokai, Main Hawaiian Islands in 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  16. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Maug, Marianas in 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  17. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Kingman, Pacific Remote Island Areas in 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  18. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Tutuila, American Samoa in 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  19. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Wake, Pacific Remote Island Areas in 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  20. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Agrihan, Marianas in 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  1. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Lanai, Main Hawaiian Islands in 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  2. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Kure, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands in 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  3. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Rota, Marianas in 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  4. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Hawaii, Main Hawaiian Islands in 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  5. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Kauai, Main Hawaiian Islands in 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  6. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Swains, American Samoa in 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  7. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Guguan, Marianas in 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  8. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Sarigan, Marianas in 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  9. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Johnston, Pacific Remote Island Areas in 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  10. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Aguijan, Marianas in 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  11. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Palmyra, Pacific Remote Island Areas in 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  12. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Tinian, Marianas in 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  13. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Pearl & Hermes, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands in 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  14. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Maui, Main Hawaiian Islands in 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  15. CRED Rapid Ecological Assessment Line Point Intercept Survey of Benthic Parameter Assessments at Guam, Marianas in 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Line point intercept (LPI) surveys and benthic composition assessments were conducted during Rapid Ecological Assessments (REA) as part of the Pacific Reef...

  16. Rapid ethnographic assessment of breastfeeding practices in periurban Mexico City.

    OpenAIRE

    Guerrero, M.L.; Morrow, R C; Calva, J.J.; Ortega-Gallegos, H.; Weller, S. C.; Ruiz-Palacios, G M; Morrow, A.L.

    1999-01-01

    Before carrying out a breastfeeding promotion programme in a periurban area of Mexico City, we conducted a rapid ethnographic study to determine the factors associated with absence of exclusive breastfeeding. The responses to pilot interviews were used to develop a standardized questionnaire regarding reasons for infant feeding choice, sources of advice, and barriers to breastfeeding. We interviewed a random sample of 150 mothers with a child < 5 years of age; 136 (91%) of them had initiated ...

  17. Rapid Assessment of Loiasis in parts of the Niger Delta, in Imo State ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The prevalence of loiasis was rapidly assessed based on the World Health Organisation RAPLOA technique in 24 rural communities of the Niger Delta Area of Imo State, Nigeria using 78-82 adults per community. The rapid assessment was based on history of eye worm and Calabar swellings from individual, as well as ...

  18. Forecast skill score assessment of a relocatable ocean prediction system, using a simplified objective analysis method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onken, Reiner

    2017-11-01

    A relocatable ocean prediction system (ROPS) was employed to an observational data set which was collected in June 2014 in the waters to the west of Sardinia (western Mediterranean) in the framework of the REP14-MED experiment. The observational data, comprising more than 6000 temperature and salinity profiles from a fleet of underwater gliders and shipborne probes, were assimilated in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), which is the heart of ROPS, and verified against independent observations from ScanFish tows by means of the forecast skill score as defined by Murphy(1993). A simplified objective analysis (OA) method was utilised for assimilation, taking account of only those profiles which were located within a predetermined time window W. As a result of a sensitivity study, the highest skill score was obtained for a correlation length scale C = 12.5 km, W = 24 h, and r = 1, where r is the ratio between the error of the observations and the background error, both for temperature and salinity. Additional ROPS runs showed that (i) the skill score of assimilation runs was mostly higher than the score of a control run without assimilation, (i) the skill score increased with increasing forecast range, and (iii) the skill score for temperature was higher than the score for salinity in the majority of cases. Further on, it is demonstrated that the vast number of observations can be managed by the applied OA method without data reduction, enabling timely operational forecasts even on a commercially available personal computer or a laptop.

  19. Assessing various approaches for flash flood forecasting in the Yzeron periurban catchment (150 km2) south-east Lyon, France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braud, Isabelle; Breil, Pascal; Javelle, Pierre; Pejakovic, Nikola; Guérin, Stéphane

    2017-04-01

    The Yzeron periurban catchment (150 km2) is prone to flash floods leading to overflow in the downstream part of the catchment. A prevention and management plan has been approved and the set-up of a flood forecasting system is planned. The present study presents a comparison of several solutions for flood forecasting in the catchment. It is based on an extensive data collection (rain gauges, radar/rain gauge reanalyses, discharge and water level data) from this experimental catchment. A set of rainfall-runoff events leading to floods (problematic and non-problematic floods) was extracted and formed the basis for the definition of a first forecasting method. It is based on data analysis and the identification of explaining factors amongst the following: rainfall amount, intensity, antecedent rainfall, initial discharge. Several statistical methods including Factorial Analysis of Mixed Data and Classification and Regression Tree were used for this purpose. They showed that several classes of problematic floods can be identified. The first one is related to wet conditions characterized with high initial discharge and antecedent rainfall. The second class is driven by rainfall amount, initial discharge and rainfall intensity. Thresholds of these variables can be identified to provide a first warning. The second forecasting method assessed in the study is the system that will be operational in France in 2017, based on the AIGA method (Javelle et al., 2016). For this purpose, 18-year discharge simulation using the hydrological model of the AIGA method, forced using radar/rain gauges reanalysis were available at 44 locations within the catchment. The dates for which quantiles of a given return period were overtopped were identified and compared with the list of problematic events. The AIGA method was found relevant in identifying the most problematic events, but the lead time needs further investigation in order to assess the usefulness for population warning. References

  20. Improving the Turkish Navy requirements determination process ban assessment of demand forecasting methods for weapon system items

    OpenAIRE

    Unlu, Naim Teoman.

    2001-01-01

    Requirements determination is the process the Inventory Control Center Command (ICCC) uses to forecast future customer demands and to set levels of inventory to satisfy those demands. Demand forecasting is the essence of the Requirements Determination Process (RDP), which uses a forecasting model to predict demand. Then inventory models use this information to determine stock levels for every material. If forecasts and subsequent purchases are higher than actual usage, the result is excess in...

  1. Assessing the Impact of Observations on Numerical Weather Forecasts Using the Adjoint Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelaro, Ronald

    2012-01-01

    The adjoint of a data assimilation system provides a flexible and efficient tool for estimating observation impacts on short-range weather forecasts. The impacts of any or all observations can be estimated simultaneously based on a single execution of the adjoint system. The results can be easily aggregated according to data type, location, channel, etc., making this technique especially attractive for examining the impacts of new hyper-spectral satellite instruments and for conducting regular, even near-real time, monitoring of the entire observing system. This talk provides a general overview of the adjoint method, including the theoretical basis and practical implementation of the technique. Results are presented from the adjoint-based observation impact monitoring tool in NASA's GEOS-5 global atmospheric data assimilation and forecast system. When performed in conjunction with standard observing system experiments (OSEs), the adjoint results reveal both redundancies and dependencies between observing system impacts as observations are added or removed from the assimilation system. Understanding these dependencies may be important for optimizing the use of the current observational network and defining requirements for future observing systems

  2. Evaluation of NOAA's High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), 12 km North America Model (NAM12) and 4km North America Model (NAM 4) hub-height wind speed forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendergrass, W.; Vogel, C. A.

    2013-12-01

    As an outcome of discussions between Duke Energy Generation and NOAA/ARL following the 2009 AMS Summer Community Meeting, in Norman Oklahoma, ARL and Duke Energy Generation (Duke) signed a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) which allows NOAA to conduct atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) research using Duke renewable energy sites as research testbeds. One aspect of this research has been the evaluation of forecast hub-height winds from three NOAA atmospheric models. Forecasts of 10m (surface) and 80m (hub-height) wind speeds from (1) NOAA/GSD's High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, (2) NOAA/NCEP's 12 km North America Model (NAM12) and (3) NOAA/NCEP's 4k high resolution North America Model (NAM4) were evaluated against 18 months of surface-layer wind observations collected at the joint NOAA/Duke Energy research station located at Duke Energy's West Texas Ocotillo wind farm over the period April 2011 through October 2012. HRRR, NAM12 and NAM4 10m wind speed forecasts were compared with 10m level wind speed observations measured on the NOAA/ATDD flux-tower. Hub-height (80m) HRRR , NAM12 and NAM4 forecast wind speeds were evaluated against the 80m operational PMM27-28 meteorological tower supporting the Ocotillo wind farm. For each HRRR update, eight forecast hours (hour 01, 02, 03, 05, 07, 10, 12, 15) plus the initialization hour (hour 00), evaluated. For the NAM12 and NAM4 models forecast hours 00-24 from the 06z initialization were evaluated. Performance measures or skill score based on absolute error 50% cumulative probability were calculated for each forecast hour. HRRR forecast hour 01 provided the best skill score with an absolute wind speed error within 0.8 m/s of observed 10m wind speed and 1.25 m/s for hub-height wind speed at the designated 50% cumulative probability. For both NAM4 and NAM12 models, skill scores were diurnal with comparable best scores observed during the day of 0.7 m/s of observed 10m wind speed and 1.1 m/s for hub

  3. Impacts of Amazonia biomass burning aerosols assessed from short-range weather forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. Kolusu

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The direct radiative impacts of biomass burning aerosols (BBA on meteorology are investigated using short-range forecasts from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM over South America during the South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA. The impacts are evaluated using a set of three simulations: (i no aerosols, (ii with monthly mean aerosol climatologies and (iii with prognostic aerosols modelled using the Coupled Large-scale Aerosol Simulator for Studies In Climate (CLASSIC scheme. Comparison with observations show that the prognostic CLASSIC scheme provides the best representation of BBA. The impacts of BBA are quantified over central and southern Amazonia from the first and second day of 2-day forecasts during 14 September–3 October 2012. On average, during the first day of the forecast, including prognostic BBA reduces the clear-sky net radiation at the surface by 15 ± 1 W m−2 and reduces net top-of-atmosphere (TOA radiation by 8 ± 1 W m−2, with a direct atmospheric warming of 7 ± 1 W m−2. BBA-induced reductions in all-sky radiation are smaller in magnitude: 9.0 ± 1 W m−2 at the surface and 4.0 ± 1 W m−2 at TOA. In this modelling study the BBA therefore exert an overall cooling influence on the Earth–atmosphere system, although some levels of the atmosphere are directly warmed by the absorption of solar radiation. Due to the reduction of net radiative flux at the surface, the mean 2 m air temperature is reduced by around 0.1 ± 0.02 °C. The BBA also cools the boundary layer (BL but warms air above by around 0.2 °C due to the absorption of shortwave radiation. The overall impact is to reduce the BL depth by around 19 ± 8 m. These differences in heating lead to a more anticyclonic circulation at 700 hPa, with winds changing by around 0.6 m s−1. Inclusion of climatological or prognostic BBA in the MetUM makes a small but significant improvement in forecasts of temperature and relative humidity, but improvements were

  4. Interactions of physical, chemical, and biological weather calling for an integrated approach to assessment, forecasting, and communication of air quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Thomas; Kukkonen, Jaakko; Dahl, Aslög; Bossioli, Elissavet; Baklanov, Alexander; Vik, Aasmund Fahre; Agnew, Paul; Karatzas, Kostas D; Sofiev, Mikhail

    2012-12-01

    This article reviews interactions and health impacts of physical, chemical, and biological weather. Interactions and synergistic effects between the three types of weather call for integrated assessment, forecasting, and communication of air quality. Today's air quality legislation falls short of addressing air quality degradation by biological weather, despite increasing evidence for the feasibility of both mitigation and adaptation policy options. In comparison with the existing capabilities for physical and chemical weather, the monitoring of biological weather is lacking stable operational agreements and resources. Furthermore, integrated effects of physical, chemical, and biological weather suggest a critical review of air quality management practices. Additional research is required to improve the coupled modeling of physical, chemical, and biological weather as well as the assessment and communication of integrated air quality. Findings from several recent COST Actions underline the importance of an increased dialog between scientists from the fields of meteorology, air quality, aerobiology, health, and policy makers.

  5. Assimilation of Deformation Data for Eruption Forecasting: Potentiality Assessment Based on Synthetic Cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Grace Bato

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In monitoring active volcanoes, the magma overpressure is one of the key parameters used in forecasting volcanic eruptions. This parameter can be inferred from the ground displacements measured on the Earth's surface by applying inversion techniques. However, in most studies, the huge amount of information about the behavior of the volcano contained in the temporal evolution of the deformation signal is not fully exploited by inversion. Our work focuses on developing a strategy in order to better forecast the magma overpressure using data assimilation. We take advantage of the increasing amount of geodetic data [i.e., Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS] recorded on volcanoes nowadays together with the wide-range availability of dynamical models that can provide better understanding about the volcano plumbing system. Here, we particularly built our strategy on the basis of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF. We forecast the temporal behaviors of the magma overpressures and surface deformations by adopting a simple and generic two-magma chamber model and by using synthetic GNSS and/or InSAR data. We prove the ability of EnKF to both estimate the magma pressure evolution and constrain the characteristics of the deep volcanic system (i.e., reservoir size as well as basal magma inflow. High temporal frequency of observation is required to ensure the success of EnKF and the quality of assimilation is also improved by increasing the spatial density of observations in the near-field. We thus show that better results are obtained by combining a few GNSS temporal series of high temporal resolution with InSAR images characterized by a good spatial coverage. We also show that EnKF provides similar results to sophisticated Bayesian-based inversion while using the same dynamical model with the advantage of EnKF to potentially account for the temporal evolution of the uncertain model parameters. Our

  6. Assessing the Value of Post-processed State-of-the-art Long-term Weather Forecast Ensembles within An Integrated Agronomic Modelling Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    LI, Y.; Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.

    2014-12-01

    Over recent years, long-term climate forecast from global circulation models (GCMs) has been demonstrated to show increasing skills over the climatology, thanks to the advances in the modelling of coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics. Improved information from long-term forecast is supposed to be a valuable support to farmers in optimizing farming operations (e.g. crop choice, cropping time) and for more effectively coping with the adverse impacts of climate variability. Yet, evaluating how valuable this information can be is not straightforward and farmers' response must be taken into consideration. Indeed, while long-range forecast are traditionally evaluated in terms of accuracy by comparison of hindcast and observed values, in the context of agricultural systems, potentially useful forecast information should alter the stakeholders' expectation, modify their decisions and ultimately have an impact on their annual benefit. Therefore, it is more desirable to assess the value of those long-term forecasts via decision-making models so as to extract direct indication of probable decision outcomes from farmers, i.e. from an end-to-end perspective. In this work, we evaluate the operational value of thirteen state-of-the-art long-range forecast ensembles against climatology forecast and subjective prediction (i.e. past year climate and historical average) within an integrated agronomic modeling framework embedding an implicit model of farmers' behavior. Collected ensemble datasets are bias-corrected and downscaled using a stochastic weather generator, in order to address the mismatch of the spatio-temporal scale between forecast data from GCMs and distributed crop simulation model. The agronomic model is first simulated using the forecast information (ex-ante), followed by a second run with actual climate (ex-post). Multi-year simulations are performed to account for climate variability and the value of the different climate forecast is evaluated against the perfect

  7. Assessing Tolerance-Based Robust Short-Term Load Forecasting in Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Prieto

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting (STLF in buildings differs from its broader counterpart in that the load to be predicted does not seem to be stationary, seasonal and regular but, on the contrary, it may be subject to sudden changes and variations on its consumption behaviour. Classical STLF methods do not react fast enough to these perturbations (i.e., they are not robust and the literature on building STLF has not yet explored this area. Hereby, we evaluate a well-known post-processing method (Learning Window Reinitialization applied to two broadly-used STLF algorithms (Autoregressive Model and Support Vector Machines in buildings to check their adaptability and robustness. We have tested the proposed method with real-world data and our results state that this methodology is especially suited for buildings with non-regular consumption profiles, as classical STLF methods are enough to model regular-profiled ones.

  8. Ideal point error for model assessment in data-driven river flow forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. W. Dawson

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available When analysing the performance of hydrological models in river forecasting, researchers use a number of diverse statistics. Although some statistics appear to be used more regularly in such analyses than others, there is a distinct lack of consistency in evaluation, making studies undertaken by different authors or performed at different locations difficult to compare in a meaningful manner. Moreover, even within individual reported case studies, substantial contradictions are found to occur between one measure of performance and another. In this paper we examine the ideal point error (IPE metric – a recently introduced measure of model performance that integrates a number of recognised metrics in a logical way. Having a single, integrated measure of performance is appealing as it should permit more straightforward model inter-comparisons. However, this is reliant on a transferrable standardisation of the individual metrics that are combined to form the IPE. This paper examines one potential option for standardisation: the use of naive model benchmarking.

  9. Assessing DRAGON Measurements for Evaluation and Assimilation in the GEOS-5 Aerosol Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, A.; Colarco, P. R.; Darmenov, A.; Holben, B. N.

    2013-12-01

    GEOS-5 is the latest version of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) earth system model. GEOS-5 contains components for atmospheric circulation and composition (including data assimilation), ocean circulation and biogeochemistry, and land surface processes. In addition to traditional meteorological parameters, GEOS-5 includes modules representing the atmospheric composition, most notably aerosols and tropospheric/stratospheric chemical constituents, taking explicit account of the impact of these constituents on the radiative processes of the atmosphere. The assimilation of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) in GEOS-5 involves very careful cloud screening and homogenization of the observing system by means of a Neural Net scheme that translates MODIS radiances into AERONET calibrated AOD. These measurements are further quality controlled using an adaptive buddy check scheme, and assimilated using the Local Displacement Ensemble (LDE) methodology. The near real-time GEOS-5 aerosol forecasting system runs at a nominal 25km horizontal resolution with 72 vertical layers (top at ~85km). GEOS-5 is driven by daily biomass burning emissions derived from MODIS fire radiative power retrievals. In this talk we will utilize aerosol measurements from the Distributed Regional Aerosol Gridded Observation Networks (DRAGON) to evaluate the temporal and spatial distribution of aerosols in GEOS-5. While NRT assimilation of MODIS optical depth observations constrains the GEOS-5 aerosol distributions during satellite overpasses, the diurnal cycle, mixing state and optical properties are internally determined by the model parameterizations and require careful validation. By combining DRAGON with other in-situ and remotely sensed measurements from the DISCOVER-AQ and SEAC4RS field campaigns we will present a comprehensive evaluation of the GEOS-5 aerosol state, and examine the impact of assimilating the DRAGON measurements on the quality of the GEOS-5 analysis and forecasts

  10. Skill Assessment of An Hybrid Technique To Estimate Quantitative Precipitation Forecast For Galicia (nw Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lage, A.; Taboada, J. J.

    Precipitation is the most obvious of the weather elements in its effects on normal life. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is generally used to produce quantitative precip- itation forecast (QPF) beyond the 1-3 h time frame. These models often fail to predict small-scale variations of rain because of spin-up problems and their coarse spatial and temporal resolution (Antolik, 2000). Moreover, there are some uncertainties about the behaviour of the NWP models in extreme situations (de Bruijn and Brandsma, 2000). Hybrid techniques, combining the benefits of NWP and statistical approaches in a flexible way, are very useful to achieve a good QPF. In this work, a new technique of QPF for Galicia (NW of Spain) is presented. This region has a percentage of rainy days per year greater than 50% with quantities that may cause floods, with human and economical damages. The technique is composed of a NWP model (ARPS) and a statistical downscaling process based on an automated classification scheme of at- mospheric circulation patterns for the Iberian Peninsula (J. Ribalaygua and R. Boren, 1995). Results show that QPF for Galicia is improved using this hybrid technique. [1] Antolik, M.S. 2000 "An Overview of the National Weather Service's centralized statistical quantitative precipitation forecasts". Journal of Hydrology, 239, pp:306- 337. [2] de Bruijn, E.I.F and T. Brandsma "Rainfall prediction for a flooding event in Ireland caused by the remnants of Hurricane Charley". Journal of Hydrology, 239, pp:148-161. [3] Ribalaygua, J. and Boren R. "Clasificación de patrones espaciales de precipitación diaria sobre la España Peninsular". Informes N 3 y 4 del Servicio de Análisis e Investigación del Clima. Instituto Nacional de Meteorología. Madrid. 53 pp.

  11. Rapid assessment of cataract surgical coverage in rural Zululand ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective. Cataract surgical coverage (CSC) is a useful indicator of the degree of success of a cataract intervention programme. However, because previously described methods are time-consuming and labour-intensive, they are rarely performed. This study describes a simple and inexpensive assessment of CSC based ...

  12. Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Cloke, Hannah; Thielen, Jutta

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  13. Rapid ethnographic assessment of breastfeeding practices in periurban Mexico City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero, M L; Morrow, R C; Calva, J J; Ortega-Gallegos, H; Weller, S C; Ruiz-Palacios, G M; Morrow, A L

    1999-01-01

    Before carrying out a breastfeeding promotion programme in a periurban area of Mexico City, we conducted a rapid ethnographic study to determine the factors associated with absence of exclusive breastfeeding. The responses to pilot interviews were used to develop a standardized questionnaire regarding reasons for infant feeding choice, sources of advice, and barriers to breastfeeding. We interviewed a random sample of 150 mothers with a child health, growth, and hygiene were the main reasons for the type of feeding selected; cost, comfort, and the husband's opinion were less important. Physicians were ranked as the most important source of advice. Reduction or cessation of breastfeeding occurred on the doctor's advice (68%); or when the mothers encountered local folk illnesses such as "coraje" (52%) or "susto" (54%), which are associated with anger or fright; or had "not enough milk" (62%) or "bad milk" (56%); or because of illness of the mother (56%) or child (43%). During childhood illnesses and conditions, breastfeeding was reduced and the use of supplementary foods was increased. This study emphasizes the importance of cultural values in infant feeding choices, defines specific barriers to breastfeeding, and provides a basis for interventions to promote exclusive breastfeeding in the study population.

  14. Rapid assessment of disaster damage using social media activity

    OpenAIRE

    Kryvasheyeu, Yury; Chen, Haohui; Obradovich, Nick; Moro, Esteban; Van Hentenryck, Pascal; Fowler, James; Cebrian, Manuel

    2016-01-01

    Could social media data aid in disaster response and damage assessment? Countries face both an increasing frequency and an increasing intensity of natural disasters resulting from climate change. During such events, citizens turn to social media platforms for disaster-related communication and information. Social media improves situational awareness, facilitates dissemination of emergency information, enables early warning systems, and helps coordinate relief efforts. In addition, the spatiot...

  15. Assimilation of Deformation Data for Eruption Forecasting: Potentiality Assessment Based on Synthetic Cases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bato, M. Grace; Pinel, Virginie; Yan, Yajing

    2017-06-01

    In monitoring active volcanoes, the magma overpressure is one of the key parameters used in forecasting volcanic eruptions. This parameter can be inferred from the ground displacements measured on the Earth's surface by applying inversion techniques. However, in most studies, the huge amount of information about the behaviour of the volcano contained in the temporal evolution of the signal is not fully exploited by inversion. Our work focuses on developing a strategy in order to better forecast the magma overpressure using data assimilation. We take advantage of the increasing amount of geodetic data (i.e. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)) recorded on volcanoes nowadays together with the wide-range availability of dynamical models that can provide better understanding about the volcano plumbing system. Here, we particularly built our strategy on the basis of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). We predict the temporal behaviours of the magma overpressures and surface deformations by adopting a simple and generic two-magma chamber model and by using synthetic GNSS and/or InSAR data. We prove the ability of EnKF to both estimate the magma pressure evolution and constrain the characteristics of the deep volcanic system (i.e. reservoir size as well as basal magma inflow). High temporal frequency of observation is required to ensure the success of EnKF and the quality of assimilation is also improved by increasing the spatial density of observations in the near-field. We thus show that better results are obtained by combining a few GNSS temporal series of high temporal resolution with InSAR images characterized by a good spatial coverage. We also show that EnKF provides similar results to sophisticated Bayesian-based inversion while using the same dynamical model with the advantage of EnkF to potentially account for the temporal evolution of the uncertain model parameters. Our results show that EnKF works well

  16. Hawaii Coral Reef Assessment and Monitoring Program (CRAMP): Benthic Data from Rapid Assessment Transects Maui 2006 (NODC Accession 0039383)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset consists of CRAMP Rapid Assessment Transect surveys taken in 2006 and includes quantitative estimates of substrate type and species. In 2006, there were...

  17. Hawaii Coral Reef Assessment and Monitoring Program (CRAMP): Benthic Data from Rapid Assessment Transects 2001-2004 (NODC Accession 0002464)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset consists of CRAMP Rapid Assessment Transect surveys taken in 2001-2004 and includes quantitative estimates of substrate type and species. The types and...

  18. Benthic data from rapid assessment transects, 2001-2004, in the Hawaiian Islands (NODC Accession 0002464)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset consists of CRAMP Rapid Assessment Transect surveys taken in 2001-2004 and includes quantitative estimates of substrate type and species. The types and...

  19. Methodology for Computer-aided, Interactive Rapid Assessment of Local or Regional Stress Fields on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colton, S. L.; Ferrill, D. A.; Sims, D. W.; Wyrick, D. Y.; Franklin, N. M.

    2003-03-01

    We present a method for rapid assessment of stress fields on Mars: (i) mapping geologic structures, (ii) calculating stress fields, and (iii) determining resolved stresses on faults. Preliminary results are presented for northern Utopia Planitia.

  20. Assessment of changes in smile after rapid maxillary expansion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Morales Cobra de Carvalho

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: This study evaluated changes in the smile characteristics of patients with maxillary constriction submitted to rapid maxillary expansion (RME. METHODS: The sample consisted of 81 extraoral photographs of maximum smile of 27 patients with mean age of 10 years, before expansion and 3 and 6 months after fixation of the expanding screw. The photographs were analyzed on the software Cef X 2001, with achievement of the following measurements: Transverse smile area, buccal corridors, exposure of maxillary incisors, gingival exposure of maxillary incisors, smile height, upper and lower lip thickness, smile symmetry and smile arch. Statistical analysis was performed by analysis of variance (ANOVA, at a significance level of 5%. RESULTS: RME promoted statistically significant increase in the transverse smile dimension and exposure of maxillary central and lateral incisors; maintenance of right and left side smile symmetry and of the lack of parallelism between the curvature of the maxillary incisal edges and lower lip border. CONCLUSIONS: RME was beneficial for the smile esthetics with the increase of the transverse smile dimension and exposure of maxillary central and lateral incisors.INTRODUÇÃO: esse estudo avaliou as alterações das características do sorriso de pacientes com atresia maxilar submetidos à expansão rápida da maxila (ERM. MÉTODOS: a amostra consistiu de 81 fotografias extrabucais do sorriso máximo de 27 pacientes, com idade média de 10 anos, antes da expansão e aos três e seis meses após a fixação do parafuso expansor. As análises das fotografias foram realizadas por meio do programa Cef X 2001, e as seguintes medidas foram analisadas: dimensão transversal do sorriso, corredores bucais, quantidade de exposição dos incisivos superiores, exposição gengival dos incisivos superiores, altura do sorriso, espessuras dos lábios superior e inferior, simetria e arco do sorriso. As alterações no sorriso durante

  1. Microwave Hematoma Detector for the Rapid Assessment of Head Injuries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hadded, W.; Chang, J.; Rosenbury, T.; Dallum, G.; Welsch, P.; Scott, D.; Duarte, D.; Acevedo-Bolton, V.

    2000-02-11

    A non-invasive microwave device for the detection of epi/subdural hemorrhaging (hematoma) is under current development. The final device will be highly portable and allow real time assessment of head injuries, thereby satisfying early detection needs of the field technician as well as providing a tool for repetitious monitoring of high-risk individuals. The device will adopt the advanced technology of micropower impulse radar (MIR) which is a state of the art low cost ultra wide band (UWB) microwave radar developed here at LLNL. It will consist of a MIR transmitting and receiving module, a computer based signal processing module, and a device-to-patient signal coupling module--the UWB antenna. The prototype design is being guided by the needs of the patient and the practitioner along with the prerequisites of the technology including issues such as the specificity of the device, efficacy of diagnosis, accuracy, robustness, and patient comfort. The prototype development follows a concurrent approach which .includes experiments designed to evaluate requirements of the radar and antenna design, phantom development to facilitate laboratory investigations, and investigation into the limits of adapting pre-existing non-medical MIR devices to medical applications. This report will present the accomplishments and project highlights to date in the fiscal year 1999. Future project projections will also be discussed.

  2. Forecasting Sales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractThis chapter deals with forecasting sales (in units or money), where an explicit distinction is made between sales of durable goods (computers, cars, books) and sales of utilitarian products (SKU level in supermarkets). Invariably, sales forecasting amounts to a combination of

  3. Using Ant Communities For Rapid Assessment Of Terrestrial Ecosystem Health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wike, L

    2005-06-01

    relative health of the ecosystem. The IBI, though originally for Midwestern streams, has been successfully adapted to other ecoregions and taxa (macroinvertebrates, Lombard and Goldstein, 2004) and has become an important tool for scientists and regulatory agencies alike in determining health of stream ecosystems. The IBI is a specific type of a larger group of methods and procedures referred to as Rapid Bioassessment (RBA). These protocols have the advantage of directly measuring the organisms affected by system perturbations, thus providing an integrated evaluation of system health because the organisms themselves integrate all aspects of their environment and its condition. In addition to the IBI, the RBA concept has also been applied to seep wetlands (Paller et al. 2005) and terrestrial systems (O'Connell et al. 1998, Kremen et al. 1993, Rodriguez et al. 1998, Rosenberg et al. 1986). Terrestrial RBA methods have lagged somewhat behind those for aquatic systems because terrestrial systems are less distinctly defined and seem to have a less universal distribution of an all-inclusive taxon, such as fish in the IBI, upon which to base an RBA. In the last decade, primarily in Australia, extensive development of an RBA using ant communities has shown great promise. Ants have the same advantage for terrestrial RBAs that fish do for aquatic systems in that they are an essential and ubiquitous component of virtually all terrestrial ecosystems. They occupy a broad range of niches, functional groups, and trophic levels and they possess one very important characteristic that makes them ideal for RBA because, similar to the fishes, there is a wide range of tolerance to conditions within the larger taxa. Within ant communities there are certain groups, genera, or species that may be very robust and abundant under even the harshest impacts. There are also taxa that are very sensitive to disturbance and change and their presence or absence is also indicative of the local

  4. MYOCARDIAL PERFUSION ASSESSMENT IN FORECASTING EFFECT OF CORONARY ANGIOPLASTY IN PATIENTS WITH ISCHEMIC CHRONIC HEART FAILURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. B. Mironkov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To define influence of the left ventricle (LV perfusion defects on the clinical status dynamics after coronary angioplasty in patients with the expressed myocardium dysfunction of ischemic etiology. Materials and methods. Examined 86 patients (81 men and 5 women aged from 46 to 73 years before and in 2–3 days after percutaneous coronary intervention with diagnosis: CAD, CHF with NYHA class III–IV, echocardiography parameters of LV: ejection fraction less than 40%, end-diastolic volume is more than 200 ml. Perfusion defects of myocardium estimated with use of ECG-gated single photon emission computed tomography. Predictors were defined: perfusion defects on LV apex (in score, perfusion defects in the area of LAD, LCx and RCA (%, the LV global perfusion defects (in score and %. Results. In 42% of cases 6-minute walk test increased to 3 times; The NYHA class decreased by 2 classes (group 1. In 28 cases 6-minute walk test increased to 2 times and the NYHA class decreased on 1 class. In 22 patients 6-minute walk test increased less than 50% of reference values and there was no dynamics NYHA class (50 patients of the group 2. Initial extent of LV global perfusion defects in group 1 – 41,2 ± 4,0%, in group 2 – 58,3 ± 2,4% (р = 0,0004. Similar values are received for perfusion indicators in the area of LAD and the LV apex. Prevalence of myocardial perfusion defects at rest reflects prevalence of a cardiosclerosis in a cardiac muscle. Conclusion. Degree of LV myocardial perfusion defects in patients with the expressed heart failure of ischemic etiology is the key indicator influencing clinical efficiency of coronary angioplasty. Critical size for definition of the favorable forecast of revascularization are 60% and more perfusion defects testifying that in a cardiac muscle the focal cardiosclerosis prevails over the functioning myocardium. 

  5. Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Information Technology and Services--Lessons from Home Video Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klopfenstein, Bruce C.

    1989-01-01

    Describes research that examined the strengths and weaknesses of technological forecasting methods by analyzing forecasting studies made for home video players. The discussion covers assessments and explications of correct and incorrect forecasting assumptions, and their implications for forecasting the adoption of home information technologies…

  6. Fishing Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    ROFFS stands for Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc. Roffer combines satellite and computer technology with oceanographic information from several sources to produce frequently updated charts sometimes as often as 30 times a day showing clues to the location of marlin, sailfish, tuna, swordfish and a variety of other types. Also provides customized forecasts for racing boats and the shipping industry along with seasonal forecasts that allow the marine industry to formulate fishing strategies based on foreknowledge of the arrival and departure times of different fish. Roffs service exemplifies the potential for benefits to marine industries from satellite observations. Most notable results are reduced search time and substantial fuel savings.

  7. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts......Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...

  8. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  9. Assessing Intelligent Models in Forecasting Monthly Rainfall by Means of Teleconnection Patterns (Case Study: Khorasan Razavi Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzaneh Nazarieh

    2016-02-01

    the models, eighty percent of the data belonged to six stations. Mashhad, Golmakan, Sabzevar, Kashmar, Torbate and Sarakhs were used. Verification of the model was carried out in two parts. The first part of verification was done with twenty percent of the remaining data which belonged to the mentioned six stations. The second part of verification was done with data from the Nishapur station. Nishapur geographically is located between other stations and did not participate in the calibration. So, it provides a ondition for assessing models in location except for the calibration stations. To assess and compare the accuracy of the models, the following statistical criteria have been used: correlation coefficient (R, normal root mean square error (NRMSE, mean bias error (MBE, Jacovides criteria (t, and ratio (R2/t. To evaluate models in different rainfall depths, rainfall data based on standard precipitation index (SPI was divided into seven classes, and the accuracy of each class was calculated separately. Results and Discussion: By comparing the models' ability to predict rainfall according to the R2 /t criteria it can be concluded that the ranking of the models is Neuro-fuzzy model, Fuzzy Inference Systems, and Neural network, respectively. R2 /to criteria for prediction of rainfall one, two, and three month earlier in the Neuro-fuzzy model are 0.91, 0.4, 0.36, in Fuzzy Inference Systems are 0.76, 0.38, 0.31 and in the neural network model are 0.43,0.27, 0.2. The statistical criteria of Neuro-fuzzy model (R, MBE, NRMSE, t, R2/ t for rainfall forecasting one month earlier are 0.8, -0.55,0.43, 0.7 , 0.91; two months earlier are 0.79, -1.32, 0.48, 1.56, 0.4; and three months earlier are 0.73,-1.37, 0.54, 1.47, 0.36 . Calculation of MBE criteria for Neuro-fuzzy models in all classes of SPI indicated that this model has a lower estimate in extremely wet and very wet classes. This is because of lack of data belonging to these classes for model training. Conclusion: The

  10. Validity of the Rapid Eating Assessment for Patients for assessing dietary patterns in NCAA athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurka, Jonathan M; Buman, Matthew P; Ainsworth, Barbara E

    2014-01-01

    Athletes may be at risk for developing adverse health outcomes due to poor eating behaviors during college. Due to the complex nature of the diet, it is difficult to include or exclude individual food items and specific food groups from the diet. Eating behaviors may better characterize the complex interactions between individual food items and specific food groups. The purpose was to examine the Rapid Eating Assessment for Patients survey (REAP) as a valid tool for analyzing eating behaviors of NCAA Division-I male and female athletes using pattern identification. Also, to investigate the relationships between derived eating behavior patterns and body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) while stratifying by sex and aesthetic nature of the sport. Two independent samples of male (n = 86; n = 139) and female (n = 64; n = 102) collegiate athletes completed the REAP in June-August 2011 (n = 150) and June-August 2012 (n = 241). Principal component analysis (PCA) determined possible factors using wave-1 athletes. Exploratory (EFA) and confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) determined factors accounting for error and confirmed model fit in wave-2 athletes. Wave-2 athletes' BMI and WC were recorded during a physical exam and sport participation determined classification in aesthetic and non-aesthetic sport. Mean differences in eating behavior pattern score were explored. Regression models examined interactions between pattern scores, participation in aesthetic or non-aesthetic sport, and BMI and waist circumference controlling for age and race. A 5-factor PCA solution accounting for 60.3% of sample variance determined fourteen questions for EFA and CFA. A confirmed solution revealed patterns of Desserts, Healthy food, Meats, High-fat food, and Dairy. Pattern score (mean ± SE) differences were found, as non-aesthetic sport males had a higher (better) Dessert score than aesthetic sport males (2.16 ± 0.07 vs. 1.93 ± 0.11). Female aesthetic athletes had a higher score

  11. Satellite assessment of early season forecast for vegetation condition in grazing allotments in Nevada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fifteen years of enhanced vegetation index data from the MODIS sensor are examined in conjunction with precipitation and the Palmer drought severity index to assess how well growing season conditions for vegetation within grazing allotments of Nevada can be predicted at different times of the year. ...

  12. Assessment of epidemiological parameters and their use in epidemiological and forecasting models of cereal airborne diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vallavieille-Pope, C. de; Giosue, S.; Munk, L.

    2000-01-01

    Assessments of epidemiological parameters (e.g. infection efficiency, latent period, spore production) are required for the prediction of epidemic progress, for the estimation of components of partial resistance for different host plant cultivars and for the estimation of fitness components of pa...

  13. Weather Research and Forecasting model simulation of an onshore wind farm: assessment against LiDAR and SCADA data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoni, Christian; Garcia-Cartagena, Edgardo J.; Zhan, Lu; Iungo, Giacomo Valerio; Leonardi, Stefano

    2017-11-01

    The integration of wind farm parameterizations into numerical weather prediction models is essential to study power production under realistic conditions. Nevertheless, recent models are unable to capture turbine wake interactions and, consequently, the mean kinetic energy entrainment, which are essential for the development of power optimization models. To address the study of wind turbine wake interaction, one-way nested mesoscale to large-eddy simulation (LES) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). The simulation contains five nested domains modeling the mesoscale wind on the entire North Texas Panhandle region to the microscale wind fluctuations and turbine wakes of a wind farm located at Panhandle, Texas. The wind speed, direction and boundary layer profile obtained from WRF were compared against measurements obtained with a sonic anemometer and light detection and ranging system located within the wind farm. Additionally, the power production were assessed against measurements obtained from the supervisory control and data acquisition system located in each turbine. Furthermore, to incorporate the turbines into very coarse LES, a modification to the implementation of the wind farm parameterization by Fitch et al. (2012) is proposed. This work was supported by the NSF, Grants No. 1243482 (WINDINSPIRE) and IIP 1362033 (WindSTAR), and TACC.

  14. The Method for Assessing and Forecasting Value of Knowledge in SMEs – Research Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justyna Patalas-Maliszewska

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Decisions by SMEs regarding knowledge development are made at a strategic level (Haas-Edersheim, 2007. Related to knowledge management are approaches to "measure" knowledge, where literature distinguishes between qualitative and quantitative methods of valuating intellectual capital. Although there is a quite range of such methods to build an intellectual capital reporting system, none of them is really widely recognized. This work presents a method enabling assessing the effectiveness of investing in human resources, taking into consideration existing methods. The method presented is focusing on SMEs (taking into consideration their importance for, especially, regional development. It consists of four parts: an SME reference model, an indicator matrix to assess investments into knowledge, innovation indicators, and the GMDH algorithm for decision making. The method presented is exemplified by a case study including 10 companies.

  15. Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union

    OpenAIRE

    Afonso, António; Carvalho, Rui

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we assess the determinants of revenue forecast errors for the EU-15 between 1999 and 2012, based on the forecasts published bi-annually by the European Commission. Our results show that personal income rate changes increase the revenue forecast errors: for forecasts made in t for t, increases in the corporate tax rate implies a decrease in the revenue forecast errors, in t+1 and t+2. Moreover, an increase in GDP forecast errors decreases revenue errors, whereas an increase in th...

  16. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  17. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 17 Appendix P - Forecast Soil Moisture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-04-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  18. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 15 Appendix N - Forecast Surface Runoff.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  19. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 25 Appendix X - Forecast Sea Ice Age.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  20. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 27 Appendix Z - Forecast Ridging Rate.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  1. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 23 Appendix V - Forecast Sea Ice Thickness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-04-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  2. A Rapid Assessment Tool for affirming good practice in midwifery education programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fullerton, Judith T; Johnson, Peter; Lobe, Erika; Myint, Khine Haymar; Aung, Nan Nan; Moe, Thida; Linn, Nay Aung

    2016-03-01

    to design a criterion-referenced assessment tool that could be used globally in a rapid assessment of good practices and bottlenecks in midwifery education programs. a standard tool development process was followed, to generate standards and reference criteria; followed by external review and field testing to document psychometric properties. review of standards and scoring criteria were conducted by stakeholders around the globe. Field testing of the tool was conducted in Myanmar. eleven of Myanmar׳s 22 midwifery education programs participated in the assessment. the clinimetric tool was demonstrated to have content validity and high inter-rater reliability in use. a globally validated tool, and accompanying user guide and handbook are now available for conducting rapid assessments of compliance with good practice criteria in midwifery education programming. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  3. Operational forecast of oil spill trajectory and assessment of impacts on intertidal macrobenthos in the Dahanu region, west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naidu, V.S.; Sukumaran, S.; Dubbewar, O.; Reddy, G.S.

    . Coast. Res., vol.29(2); 2013; 398-409 OPERATIONAL FORECAST OF OILSPILL TRAJECTORY AND ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS ON INTERTIDAL MACROBENTHOS IN THE DAHANU REGION, WEST COAST OF INDIA Velamala Simhadri Naidu1 , Soniya Sukumran1, Om Dubbewar1 , G. Sidda.... It is essential to know the trajectory of the spill and its likely target on the shoreline. Prediction of the oil movement will help in appropriate decision making for spill response and in directing the available resources effectively. Oil spill models...

  4. Assessing health systems for type 1 diabetes in sub-Saharan Africa: developing a 'Rapid Assessment Protocol for Insulin Access'

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beran, David; Yudkin, John S; de Courten, Maximilian

    2006-01-01

    In order to improve the health of people with Type 1 diabetes in developing countries, a clear analysis of the constraints to insulin access and diabetes care is needed. We developed a Rapid Assessment Protocol for Insulin Access, comprising a series of questionnaires as well as a protocol for th...

  5. Rapid Evidence Assessments of Research to Inform Social Policy: Taking Stock and Moving Forward

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, James; Newman, Mark; Oliver, Sandy

    2013-01-01

    There is a tension between conducting comprehensive systematic reviews and completing them in time to meet policy-making deadlines. The "rapid evidence assessment" has been proposed as a solution to this; offering rigorous reviews in a condensed timescale. While used frequently in healthcare, this mode of reviewing presents considerable…

  6. The quality of rapid HIV testing in South Africa: an assessment of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. Background: The aim of this study was to assess the quality of rapid HIV testing in South Africa. Method: A two-stage sampling procedure was used to select HCT sites in eight provinces of South Africa. The study employed both semi-structured interviews with HIV testers and observation of testing sessions as a ...

  7. The quality of rapid HIV testing in South Africa: an assessment of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: The aim of this study was to assess the quality of rapid HIV testing in South Africa. Method: A two-stage sampling procedure was used to select HCT sites in eight provinces of South Africa. The study employed both semi-structured interviews with HIV testers and observation of testing sessions as a means of ...

  8. Rapid Geriatric Assessment: Secondary Prevention to Stop Age-Associated Disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morley, John E

    2017-08-01

    The Rapid Geriatric Assessment (RGA) measures frailty, sarcopenia, anorexia, cognition, and advanced directives. The RGA is a screen for primary care physicians to be able to detect geriatric syndromes. Early intervention when geriatric syndromes are recognized can decrease disability, hospitalization, and mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Rapid assessment of wildfire damage using Forest Inventory data: A case in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard A. Harper; John W. Coulsten; Jeffery A. Turner

    2009-01-01

    The rapid assessment of damage caused by natural disasters is essential for planning the appropriate amount of disaster relief funds and public communication. Annual Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data provided initial estimates of damage to timberland in a timely manner to State leaders during the 2007 Georgia Bay Complex Wildfire in southeast Georgia. FIA plots...

  10. Development of flexural vibration inspection techniques to rapidly assess the structural health of rural bridge systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian K. Brashaw; Robert Vatalaro; Xiping Wang; Kevin Sarvela; James P. Wacker

    2008-01-01

    Approximately 4,000 vehicle bridges in the State of Minnesota contain structural timber members. Recent research at the University of Minnesota Duluth Natural Resources Research Institute (UMD NRRI) has been conducted on vibration testing of timber bridges as a means of developing rapid in-place testing techniques for assessing the structural health of bridges. The...

  11. A rapid assessment of species-specific bird strike risk at the Kotoka ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A rapid assessment of species-specific bird strike risk at the Kotoka International Airport in Accra, Ghana. ... We conclude that wildlife management to avert the risk of bird strikes could be successfully achieved by adopting both proactive and reactive measures to reduce the presence of problem species at the aerodrome.

  12. Rapid psychological assessment of depression and its relationship with physical health among urban elderly

    OpenAIRE

    Pavithra Cheluvaraj; Mangesh Balu Nanaware; Surya Prakasa Rao

    2016-01-01

    Background Old age is associated with increased occurrence of a wide array of Psychological impairments or losses, which might contribute to physical disabilities. As Depression has been identified as the most common aberration its rapid assessment would be able to identify the quality of individual and family life of the elderly. Aims To assess psychological health status with respect to depression among geriatric urban community, and the relationship of depression with health perce...

  13. Technical Note: Initial assessment of a multi-method approach to spring-flood forecasting in Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, J.; Uvo, C. B.; Foster, K.; Yang, W.

    2016-02-01

    Hydropower is a major energy source in Sweden, and proper reservoir management prior to the spring-flood onset is crucial for optimal production. This requires accurate forecasts of the accumulated discharge in the spring-flood period (i.e. the spring-flood volume, SFV). Today's SFV forecasts are generated using a model-based climatological ensemble approach, where time series of precipitation and temperature from historical years are used to force a calibrated and initialized set-up of the HBV model. In this study, a number of new approaches to spring-flood forecasting that reflect the latest developments with respect to analysis and modelling on seasonal timescales are presented and evaluated. Three main approaches, represented by specific methods, are evaluated in SFV hindcasts for the Swedish river Vindelälven over a 10-year period with lead times between 0 and 4 months. In the first approach, historically analogue years with respect to the climate in the period preceding the spring flood are identified and used to compose a reduced ensemble. In the second, seasonal meteorological ensemble forecasts are used to drive the HBV model over the spring-flood period. In the third approach, statistical relationships between SFV and the large-sale atmospheric circulation are used to build forecast models. None of the new approaches consistently outperform the climatological ensemble approach, but for early forecasts improvements of up to 25 % are found. This potential is reasonably well realized in a multi-method system, which over all forecast dates reduced the error in SFV by ˜ 4 %. This improvement is limited but potentially significant for e.g. energy trading.

  14. Integrated Tsunami Data Supports Forecast, Warning, Research, Hazard Assessment, and Mitigation (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunbar, P. K.; Stroker, K. J.

    2009-12-01

    With nearly 230,000 fatalities, the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was the deadliest tsunami in history, illustrating the importance of developing basinwide warning systems. Key to creating these systems is easy access to quality-controlled, verified data on past tsunamis. It is essential that warning centers, emergency managers, and modelers can determine if and when similar events have occurred. Following the 2004 tsunami, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) began examining all aspects of the tsunami data archive to help answer questions regarding the frequency and severity of past tsunamis. Historical databases span insufficient time to reveal a region’s full tsunami hazard, so a global database of citations to articles on tsunami deposits was added to the archive. NGDC further expanded the archive to include high-resolution tide gauge data, deep-ocean sensor data, and digital elevation models used for propagation and inundation modeling. NGDC continuously reviews the data for accuracy, making modifications as new information is obtained. These added databases allow NGDC to provide the tsunami data necessary for warning guidance, hazard assessments, and mitigation efforts. NGDC is also at the forefront of standards-based Web delivery of integrated science data through a variety of tools, from Web-form interfaces to interactive maps. The majority of the data in the tsunami archive are discoverable online. Scientists, journalists, educators, planners, and emergency managers are among the many users of these public domain data, which may be used without restriction provided that users cite data sources.

  15. Assessing the Performance of MODIS NDVI and EVI for Seasonal Crop Yield Forecasting at the Ecodistrict Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis Kouadio

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Crop yield forecasting plays a vital role in coping with the challenges of the impacts of climate change on agriculture. Improvements in the timeliness and accuracy of yield forecasting by incorporating near real-time remote sensing data and the use of sophisticated statistical methods can improve our capacity to respond effectively to these challenges. The objectives of this study were (i to investigate the use of derived vegetation indices for the yield forecasting of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. from the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS at the ecodistrict scale across Western Canada with the Integrated Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (ICCYF; and (ii to compare the ICCYF-model based forecasts and their accuracy across two spatial scales-the ecodistrict and Census Agricultural Region (CAR, namely in CAR with previously reported ICCYF weak performance. Ecodistricts are areas with distinct climate, soil, landscape and ecological aspects, whereas CARs are census-based/statistically-delineated areas. Agroclimate variables combined respectively with MODIS-NDVI and MODIS-EVI indices were used as inputs for the in-season yield forecasting of spring wheat during the 2000–2010 period. Regression models were built based on a procedure of a leave-one-year-out. The results showed that both agroclimate + MODIS-NDVI and agroclimate + MODIS-EVI performed equally well predicting spring wheat yield at the ECD scale. The mean absolute error percentages (MAPE of the models selected from both the two data sets ranged from 2% to 33% over the study period. The model efficiency index (MEI varied between −1.1 and 0.99 and −1.8 and 0.99, respectively for the agroclimate + MODIS-NDVI and agroclimate + MODIS-EVI data sets. Moreover, significant improvement in forecasting skill (with decreasing MAPE of 40% and 5 times increasing MEI, on average was obtained at the finer, ecodistrict spatial scale, compared to the coarser CAR scale. Forecast

  16. Rapid Analysis of Eukaryotic Bioluminescence to Assess Potential Groundwater Contamination Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zacariah L. Hildenbrand

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Here we present data using a bioluminescent dinoflagellate, Pyrocystis lunula, in a toxicological bioassay to rapidly assess potential instances of groundwater contamination associated with natural gas extraction. P. lunula bioluminescence can be quantified using spectrophotometry as a measurement of organismal viability, with normal bioluminescent output declining with increasing concentration(s of aqueous toxicants. Glutaraldehyde and hydrochloric acid (HCl, components used in hydraulic fracturing and shale acidization, triggered significant toxicological responses in as little as 4 h. Conversely, P. lunula was not affected by the presence of arsenic, selenium, barium, and strontium, naturally occurring heavy metal ions potentially associated with unconventional drilling activities. If exogenous compounds, such as glutaraldehyde and HCl, are thought to have been introduced into groundwater, quantification of P. lunula bioluminescence after exposure to water samples can serve as a cost-effective detection and risk assessment tool to rapidly assess the impact of putative contamination events attributed to unconventional drilling activity.

  17. Skillful seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice retreat and advance dates in a dynamical forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigmond, M.; Reader, M. C.; Flato, G. M.; Merryfield, W. J.; Tivy, A.

    2016-12-01

    The need for skillful seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice is rapidly increasing. Technology to perform such forecasts with coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice systems has only recently become available, with previous skill evaluations mainly limited to area-integrated quantities. Here we show, based on a large set of retrospective ensemble model forecasts, that a dynamical forecast system produces skillful seasonal forecasts of local sea ice retreat and advance dates - variables that are of great interest to a wide range of end users. Advance dates can generally be skillfully predicted at longer lead times ( 5 months on average) than retreat dates ( 3 months). The skill of retreat date forecasts mainly stems from persistence of initial sea ice anomalies, whereas advance date forecasts benefit from longer time scale and more predictable variability in ocean temperatures. These results suggest that further investments in the development of dynamical seasonal forecast systems may result in significant socioeconomic benefits.

  18. Reasonable Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Kelley R.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a sample legal battle that illustrates school officials' "reasonable forecasts" of substantial disruption in the school environment. In 2006, two students from a Texas high school came to school carrying purses decorated with images of the Confederate flag. The school district has a zero-tolerance policy for…

  19. Recent Operational Innovations and Future Developments at the Flood Forecasting Centre

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millard, Jon; Pilling, Charlie

    2015-04-01

    The Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) was established in 2009 to give an overview of flood risk across England and Wales and is a partnership between the UK Met Office, the Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales. Primarily serving the emergency response community, the FFC aims to provide trusted guidance to help protect lives and livelihoods from flooding across England and Wales from its base at the Met Office in Exeter. The flood forecasts consist of an assessment of the likelihood as well as the expected level of impacts of flood events during the next five days. The FFC provide forecasts for all natural sources of flooding, namely; fluvial, coastal, surface water and groundwater but liaise closely with meteorologists at the Met Office and local flood forecasters at the Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales. Key challenges include providing; forecasts with longer lead times especially for fluvial and coastal events, forecasts at shorter timescales and with more spatial focus for rapid response catchments and surface water events, and also clear communications of forecast uncertainties. As well as operational activities, the FFC run a significant development and improvement programme and are linked in with Met Office and Environment Agency science projects in order to bring new science into operations to try and meet these challenges and improve performance. Latest developments which are now being applied operationally to provide an enhanced flood warning service will be presented. Examples include; the use of the national hydrological model Grid to Grid (G2G) for both fluvial and surface water flooding, extended surge ensembles for coastal flooding, enhancements in the surface water forecasting tool, and improvements to products communicating these forecasts. An overview of the current projects under development will also be provided, including; improvements to data within G2G, surface water hazard impact modelling, 7 day wave ensemble forecasts

  20. Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandel, David R; Barnes, Alan

    2014-07-29

    The accuracy of 1,514 strategic intelligence forecasts abstracted from intelligence reports was assessed. The results show that both discrimination and calibration of forecasts was very good. Discrimination was better for senior (versus junior) analysts and for easier (versus harder) forecasts. Miscalibration was mainly due to underconfidence such that analysts assigned more uncertainty than needed given their high level of discrimination. Underconfidence was more pronounced for harder (versus easier) forecasts and for forecasts deemed more (versus less) important for policy decision making. Despite the observed underconfidence, there was a paucity of forecasts in the least informative 0.4-0.6 probability range. Recalibrating the forecasts substantially reduced underconfidence. The findings offer cause for tempered optimism about the accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts and indicate that intelligence producers aim to promote informativeness while avoiding overstatement.

  1. The Development and Validation of a Rapid Assessment Tool of Primary Care in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mei, Jie; Liang, Yuan; Shi, LeiYu; Zhao, JingGe; Wang, YuTan; Kuang, Li

    2016-01-01

    Introduction. With Chinese health care reform increasingly emphasizing the importance of primary care, the need for a tool to evaluate primary care performance and service delivery is clear. This study presents a methodology for a rapid assessment of primary care organizations and service delivery in China. Methods. The study translated and adapted the Primary Care Assessment Tool-Adult Edition (PCAT-AE) into a Chinese version to measure core dimensions of primary care, namely, first contact, continuity, comprehensiveness, and coordination. A cross-sectional survey was conducted to assess the validity and reliability of the Chinese Rapid Primary Care Assessment Tool (CR-PCAT). Eight community health centers in Guangdong province have been selected to participate in the survey. Results. A total of 1465 effective samples were included for data analysis. Eight items were eliminated following principal component analysis and reliability testing. The principal component analysis extracted five multiple-item scales (first contact utilization, first contact accessibility, ongoing care, comprehensiveness, and coordination). The tests of scaling assumptions were basically met. Conclusion. The standard psychometric evaluation indicates that the scales have achieved relatively good reliability and validity. The CR-PCAT provides a rapid and reliable measure of four core dimensions of primary care, which could be applied in various scenarios. PMID:26885509

  2. Forecasting snowmelt flooding over Britain using the Grid-to-Grid model: a review and assessment of methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, Seonaid R. A.; Moore, Robert J.; Cole, Steven J.; Wells, Steven C.

    2017-04-01

    In many regions of high annual snowfall, snowmelt modelling can prove to be a vital component of operational flood forecasting and warning systems. Although Britain as a whole does not experience prolonged periods of lying snow, with the exception of the Scottish Highlands, the inclusion of snowmelt modelling can still have a significant impact on the skill of flood forecasts. Countrywide operational flood forecasts over Britain are produced using the national Grid-to-Grid (G2G) distributed hydrological model. For Scotland, snowmelt is included in these forecasts through a G2G snow hydrology module involving temperature-based snowfall/rainfall partitioning and functions for temperature-excess snowmelt, snowpack storage and drainage. Over England and Wales, the contribution of snowmelt is included by pre-processing the precipitation prior to input into G2G. This removes snowfall diagnosed from weather model outputs and adds snowmelt from an energy budget land surface scheme to form an effective liquid water gridded input to G2G. To review the operational options for including snowmelt modelling in G2G over Britain, a project was commissioned by the Environment Agency through the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) for England and Wales and in partnership with the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and Natural Resources Wales (NRW). Results obtained from this snowmelt review project will be reported on here. The operational methods used by the FFC and SEPA are compared on past snowmelt floods, alongside new alternative methods of treating snowmelt. Both case study and longer-term analyses are considered, covering periods selected from the winters 2009-2010, 2012-2013, 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. Over Scotland, both of the snowmelt methods used operationally by FFC and SEPA provided a clear improvement to the river flow simulations. Over England and Wales, fewer and less significant snowfall events occurred, leading to less distinction in the results between the

  3. Rapid quantitative assessment of visible injury to vegetation and visual amenity effects of fluoride air pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doley, D

    2010-01-01

    Quantitative measures of visible injury are proposed for the protection of the aesthetic acceptability and health of ecosystems. Visible indications of air pollutant injury symptoms can be assessed rapidly and economically over large areas of mixed species such as native ecosystems. Reliable indication requires close attention to the criteria for assessment, species selection, and the influence of other environmental conditions on plant response to a pollutant. The estimation of fluoride-induced visible injury in dicotyledonous species may require techniques that are more varied than the measurement of necrosis in linear-leaved monocotyledons and conifers. A scheme is described for quantitative estimates of necrosis, chlorosis and deformation of leaves using an approximately geometric series of injury categories that permits rapid and sufficiently consistent determination and recognises degrees of aesthetic offence associated with foliar injury to plants.

  4. Rapid health needs assessment following hurricane Andrew--Florida and Louisiana, 1992.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-09-18

    Following the impact phase of Hurricane Andrew in Florida (August 24) and Louisiana (August 26) (Figure 1), the primary objectives of the public health response have been to address the health and medical needs of residents in the storm-damaged areas and to provide data for relief interventions and decision-making. This report presents the combined findings from rapid health needs assessment surveys conducted by state health departments with CDC assistance 3-10 days postimpact.

  5. The FIBRO System: A Rapid Strategy for Assessment and Management of Fibromyalgia Syndrome

    OpenAIRE

    Boomershine, Chad S

    2010-01-01

    Fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS) is a complex disorder of widespread pain and tenderness associated with numerous other symptoms including fatigue, cognitive dysfunction, nonrestorative sleep, depression, anxiety, and stiffness. While new diagnostic criteria and previous management guidelines require quantitation of the severity of associated FMS symptoms experienced by individual patients, no system for rapid patient assessment has been made available to provide a basis for diagnosis, treatment s...

  6. Value of databases other than medline for rapid health technology assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenzetti, Diane L; Topfer, Leigh-Ann; Dennett, Liz; Clement, Fiona

    2014-04-01

    The objective of this study was to explore the degree to which databases other than MEDLINE contribute studies relevant for inclusion in rapid health technology assessments (HTA). We determined the extent to which the clinical, economic, and social studies included in twenty-one full and four rapid HTAs published by three Canadian HTA agencies from 2007 to 2012 were indexed in MEDLINE. Other electronic databases, including EMBASE, were then searched, in sequence, to assess whether or not they indexed studies not found in MEDLINE. Assessment topics ranged from purely clinical (e.g., drug-eluting stents) to those with broader social implications (e.g., spousal violence). MEDLINE contributed the majority of studies in all but two HTA reports, indexing a mean of 89.6 percent of clinical studies across all HTAs, and 88.3 percent of all clinical, economic, and social studies in twenty-four of twenty-five HTAs. While EMBASE contributed unique studies to twenty-two of twenty-five HTAs, three rapid HTAs did not include any EMBASE studies. In some instances, PsycINFO and CINAHL contributed as many, if not more, non-MEDLINE studies than EMBASE. Our findings highlight the importance of assessing the topic-specific relative value of including EMBASE, or more specialized databases, in HTA search protocols. Although MEDLINE continues to be a key resource for HTAs, the time and resource limitations inherent in the production of rapid HTAs require that researchers carefully consider the value and limitations of other information sources to identify relevant studies.

  7. What Lies Beneath? An Evaluation of Rapid Assessment Tools for Management of Hull Fouling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke Murray, Cathryn; Therriault, Thomas W.; Pakhomov, Evgeny

    2013-08-01

    Despite an increased understanding of marine invasions, non-indigenous species (NIS) continue to be redistributed at both global and regional scales. Since prevention is an important element of NIS programs, monitoring vectors responsible for NIS introductions and spread, such as hull fouling, has become a priority and methods should be selected carefully to balance accuracy, time, and cost. Two common fouling assessment tools for the marine recreational boating vector were evaluated for accuracy using a traditional underwater SCUBA survey in coastal British Columbia: a dockside level of fouling assessment and a behavioral questionnaire model. Results showed that although rapid, dockside assessments did not provide an accurate assessment of fouling present below the surface, at least not in this region. In contrast, a questionnaire-based model using four easily obtained variables (boat type, age of antifouling paint, storage type, and occurrence of long distance trips) reliably identified boats carrying macrofouling species, a proxy for risk of NIS transport. Once validated, this fouling model tool could be applied in border inspection or quarantine situations where decisions must be made quickly. Further development and refinement of rapid assessment tools would improve our ability to prevent new introductions and manage spread of existing invasive species.

  8. Rapid Bioassessment and In Situ Bioassay: Cost Effective Tools for Environmental Impact Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wike, L.D.

    2002-08-23

    Environmental impact can be difficult to assess, especially at the ecosystem level. Any impact assessment methodology that can give cost effective and timely results is highly desirable. Rapid bioassessment (RBA) is cost effective and produces timely results. Several types of RBA have been used at the Savannah River Site (SRS) to assess stream conditions, including the Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI) based on fish community characteristics, and various techniques using aquatic macroinvertebrate species diversity and abundance. In an attempt to broaden the applicability of the RBA concept, we have also begun to develop RBA techniques for seep-fed wetlands and terrestrial habitats. These techniques will focus on vertebrate and macroinvertebrate assemblages for seep-fed wetlands and arthropod assemblages for terrestrial habitats. In situ bioassay is another technique that could be used for rapid and economical assessment of the effects of anthropogenic disturbance. We propose the development of two methods of in situ bioassay that can address bioavailability of constituents of concern. The use of caged bioassay organisms can be applied to terrestrial systems such as capped or existing waste sites using the common house cricket. Another proposed bioassay could use a resident species, such as the imported red fire ant, which is found in disturbed habitats and open areas such as waste sites. Combining in situ techniques with RBA methodologies has the potential to provide a comprehensive assessment of chemical and physical impacts to a wide range of ecosystem types.

  9. REAP and WAVE: new tools to rapidly assess/discuss nutrition with patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gans, Kim M; Ross, Elizabeth; Barner, Claudia W; Wylie-Rosett, Judith; McMurray, Jerome; Eaton, Charles

    2003-02-01

    Dietary changes can be helpful in preventing or treating a variety of prevalent health problems. Physicians can be helpful in helping patients make positive dietary changes, be physically active and lose weight, but, for a variety of reasons, many physicians do little nutrition counseling. There is a need for brief, user-friendly tools to enable physicians to rapidly and accurately assess patients' diets and exercise habits as well as provide information to aid the physician in delivering effective nutrition counseling. The purpose of this paper is to discuss two new tools, WAVE and REAP, that have been developed by the Nutrition Academic Award to help physicians and other health care providers conduct nutrition assessment and counseling with their patients in a practical and effective manner. The WAVE acronym and tool is designed to encourage provider/patient dialogue about the pros and cons of the patients' current status related to Weight, Activity, Variety and Excess. The Rapid Eating and Activity Assessment for Patients (REAP) is a brief validated questionnaire that is designed to aid providers in performing a brief assessment of diet and physical activity. An accompanying Physician Key aids the provider in discussing the patient's answers and counseling them appropriately. REAP and WAVE can be helpful tools to facilitate nutrition assessment and counseling in the provider office. Depending on patients' health priorities and how much time is available, these tools can be used in a variety of ways to discuss nutrition with patients during a clinical encounter in 1-9 min.

  10. Adaptation level as the basic health status characteristics: possibilitics of its assessment and forecasting of desadaptation violations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vysochyna I.L.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of comprehensive survey with integrative assessment of health state (medical history data, physical examination, anthropometry, battery of psychological tests (Eysenck, Shmishek’s Personality Inventory (teen version, tapping - test by E.P. Ilyin, children's questionnaire of neuroses; test for rapid assessment of health, activity and mood, anxiety diagnosis by Spielberg - Khanin; Luscher test, color relations test level of adaptation was defined in 236 children from orphanages aged from 4 to 18 years. The manifestations of maladjustment were registered both on psychological level (neuroticism, high anxiety, decreased performance, activity and psychological endurance, sleep disturbance, presence of accentuation and neurotic disorders and somatic level (recurrent acute respiratory infections, poor physical development, exacerbation of chronic foci of infection and burdened biological history; this summarizes conclusions on a low level of health status of children in orphanages. The author has developed mathematical models of adaptation assessment and prediction of desadaptation, which allowed to identify children at risk for the development of adaptation disorders and children with maladjustment; according to the level and severity of maladaptive disorders correction programs are designed.

  11. Can rapid assessment protocols be used to judge sediment impairment in gravel-bed streams? A commentary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas E. Lisle; John M. Buffington; Peter R. Wilcock; Kristin Bunte

    2015-01-01

    Land management agencies commonly use rapid assessments to evaluate the impairment of gravel-bed streams by sediment inputs from anthropogenic sources. We question whether rapid assessment can be used to reliably judge sediment impairment at a site or in a region. Beyond the challenges of repeatable and accurate sampling, we argue that a single metric or protocol is...

  12. RAPID-N: Assessing and mapping the risk of natural-hazard impact at industrial installations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

    2015-04-01

    Natural hazard-triggered technological accidents (so-called Natech accidents) at hazardous installations can have major consequences due to the potential for release of hazardous materials, fires and explosions. Effective Natech risk reduction requires the identification of areas where this risk is high. However, recent studies have shown that there are hardly any methodologies and tools that would allow authorities to identify these areas. To work towards closing this gap, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre has developed the rapid Natech risk assessment and mapping framework RAPID-N. The tool, which is implemented in an online web-based environment, is unique in that it contains all functionalities required for running a full Natech risk analysis simulation (natural hazards severity estimation, equipment damage probability and severity calculation, modeling of the consequences of loss of containment scenarios) and for visualizing its results. The output of RAPID-N are risk summary reports and interactive risk maps which can be used for decision making. Currently, the tool focuses on Natech risk due to earthquakes at industrial installations. However, it will be extended to also analyse and map Natech risk due to floods in the near future. RAPID-N is available at http://rapidn.jrc.ec.europa.eu. This presentation will discuss the results of case-study calculations performed for selected flammable and toxic substances to test the capabilities of RAPID-N both for single- and multi-site earthquake Natech risk assessment. For this purpose, an Istanbul earthquake scenario provided by the Turkish government was used. The results of the exercise show that RAPID-N is a valuable decision-support tool that assesses the Natech risk and maps the consequence end-point distances. These end-point distances are currently defined by 7 kPa overpressure for Vapour Cloud Explosions, 2nd degree burns for pool fire (which is equivalent to a heat radiation of 5 kW/m2 for 40s

  13. Flash flood warnings using the ensemble precipitation forecasting technique: A case study on forecasting floods in Taiwan caused by typhoons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Tsun-Hua; Yang, Sheng-Chi; Ho, Jui-Yi; Lin, Gwo-Fong; Hwang, Gong-Do; Lee, Cheng-Shang

    2015-01-01

    A flash flood is an event that develops rapidly. Given early warnings with sufficient lead time, flood forecasting can help people prepare disaster prevention measures. To provide this early warning, a statistics-based flood forecasting model was developed to evaluate the flooding potential in urban areas using ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (the Taiwan Cooperative Precipitation Ensemble Forecast Experiment, TAPEX). The proposed model uses different sources of information, such as (i) the designed capacity of storm sewer systems, (ii) a flood inundation potential database, and (iii) historical flooding observations, to evaluate the potential for flash flooding situations to occur. Using 24-, 48- and 72-h ahead precipitation forecasts from the TAPEX, the proposed model can assess the flooding potential with two levels of risk and at the township scale with a 3-day lead time. The proposed model is applied to Pingtung County, which includes 33 townships and is located in southern Taiwan. A dataset of typhoon storms from 2010 to 2014 was used to evaluate the model performance. The accuracy and threat score for testing events are 0.68 and 0.30, respectively, with a lead time of 24 h. The accuracy and threat score for training events are 0.82 and 0.31, respectively, with a lead time of 24 h. The model performance decreases when the lead time is extended. However, the model demonstrates its potential as a valuable reference to improve emergency responses to alleviate the loss of lives and property due to flooding.

  14. Application of portable XRF and VNIR sensors for rapid assessment of soil heavy metal pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Bifeng; Chen, Songchao; Hu, Jie; Xia, Fang; Xu, Junfeng; Li, Yan; Shi, Zhou

    2017-01-01

    Rapid heavy metal soil surveys at large scale with high sampling density could not be conducted with traditional laboratory physical and chemical analyses because of the high cost, low efficiency and heavy workload involved. This study explored a rapid approach to assess heavy metals contamination in 301 farmland soils from Fuyang in Zhejiang Province, in the southern Yangtze River Delta, China, using portable proximal soil sensors. Portable X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy (PXRF) was used to determine soil heavy metals total concentrations while soil pH was predicted by portable visible-near infrared spectroscopy (PVNIR). Zn, Cu and Pb were successfully predicted by PXRF (R2 >0.90 and RPD >2.50) while As and Ni were predicted with less accuracy (R2 soils was conducted based on previous results; the Kappa coefficient was 0.87, which showed that the combination of PXRF and PVNIR was an effective and rapid method to determine the degree of pollution with soil heavy metals. This study provides a new approach to assess soil heavy metals pollution; this method will facilitate large-scale surveys of soil heavy metal pollution. PMID:28234944

  15. Rapid Assessment of the Toxicity of Fungal Compounds Using Luminescent Vibrio qinghaiensis sp. Q67

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qijie Jian

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Most tropical fruits after harvest are very perishable because of fungal infection. Since some pathogenic fungi can produce hazardous compounds such as mycotoxins, novel rapid and effective methods to assess those hazardous compounds are urgently needed. Herein we report that Vibrio qinghaiensis sp. Q67, a luminescent bacterium, can be used to rapidly assess the toxicities of mycotoxins and cultures from mycotoxin-producing pathogens. A good correlation (R2 > 0.98 between concentrations of the mycotoxins (fumonisin B1, deoxynivalenol, zearalenone, ochratoxin A, patulin, and citrinin and the luminous intensity of V. qinghaiensis sp. Q67 was obtained. Furthermore, significant correlations (R2 > 0.96 between the amount of mycotoxin and the luminous intensity from the cultures of 10 major mycotoxin-producing pathogens were also observed. In addition, Fusarium proliferatum (half-maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50 = 17.49% exhibited greater luminescence suppression than Fusarium semitectum (IC50 = 92.56% or Fusarium oxysporum (IC50 = 28.61%, which was in agreement with the existing higher levels of fumonisin B1, fumonisin B2, and deoxynivalenol, which were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. These results suggest that V. qinghaiensis sp. Q67 is a promising alternative for the rapid evaluation of the toxicity of fungal mycotoxins.

  16. The Key Role of Eyewitnesses in Rapid Impact Assessment of Global Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Steed, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.; Etivant, C.; Frobert, L.; Godey, S.

    2014-12-01

    Uncertainties in rapid impact assessments of global earthquakes are intrinsically large because they rely on 3 main elements (ground motion prediction models, building stock inventory and related vulnerability) which values and/or spatial variations are poorly constrained. Furthermore, variations of hypocentral location and magnitude within their respective uncertainty domain can lead to significantly different shaking level for centers of population and change the scope of the disaster. We present the strategy and methods implemented at the Euro-Med Seismological Centre (EMSC) to rapidly collect in-situ observations on earthquake effects from eyewitnesses for reducing uncertainties of rapid earthquake impact assessment. It comprises crowdsourced information (online questionnaires, pics) as well as information derived from real time analysis of web traffic (flashourcing technique), and more recently deployment of QCN (Quake Catcher Network) low cost sensors. We underline the importance of merging results of different methods to improve performances and reliability of collected data.We try to better understand and respond to public demands and expectations after earthquakes through improved information services and diversification of information tools (social networks, smartphone app., browsers adds-on…), which, in turn, drive more eyewitnesses to our services and improve data collection. We will notably present our LastQuake Twitter feed (Quakebot) and smartphone applications (IOs and android) which only report earthquakes that matter for the public and authorities, i.e. felt and damaging earthquakes identified thanks to citizen generated information.

  17. Rapid diagnosis and intraoperative margin assessment of human lung cancer with fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mengyan Wang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A method of rapidly differentiating lung tumor from healthy tissue is extraordinarily needed for both the diagnosis and the intraoperative margin assessment. We assessed the ability of fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM for differentiating human lung cancer and normal tissues with the autofluorescence, and also elucidated the mechanism in tissue studies and cell studies. A 15-patient testing group was used to compare FLIM results with traditional histopathology diagnosis. Based on the endogenous fluorescence lifetimes of the testing group, a criterion line was proposed to distinguish normal and cancerous tissues. Then by blinded examined 41 sections from the validation group of other 16 patients, the sensitivity and specificity of FLIM were determined. The cellular metabolism was studied with specific perturbations of oxidative phosphorylation and glycolysis in cell studies. The fluorescence lifetime of cancerous lung tissues is consistently lower than normal tissues, and this is due to the both decrease of reduced nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NADH and flavin adenine dinucleotide (FAD lifetimes. A criterion line of lifetime at 1920 ps can be given for differentiating human lung cancer and normal tissues.The sensitivity and specificity of FLIM for lung cancer diagnosis were determined as 92.9% and 92.3%. These findings suggest that NADH and FAD can be used to rapidly diagnose lung cancer. FLIM is a rapid, accurate and highly sensitive technique in the judgment during lung cancer surgery and it can be potential in earlier cancer detection.

  18. Application of portable XRF and VNIR sensors for rapid assessment of soil heavy metal pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Bifeng; Chen, Songchao; Hu, Jie; Xia, Fang; Xu, Junfeng; Li, Yan; Shi, Zhou

    2017-01-01

    Rapid heavy metal soil surveys at large scale with high sampling density could not be conducted with traditional laboratory physical and chemical analyses because of the high cost, low efficiency and heavy workload involved. This study explored a rapid approach to assess heavy metals contamination in 301 farmland soils from Fuyang in Zhejiang Province, in the southern Yangtze River Delta, China, using portable proximal soil sensors. Portable X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy (PXRF) was used to determine soil heavy metals total concentrations while soil pH was predicted by portable visible-near infrared spectroscopy (PVNIR). Zn, Cu and Pb were successfully predicted by PXRF (R2 >0.90 and RPD >2.50) while As and Ni were predicted with less accuracy (R2 <0.75 and RPD <1.40). The pH values were well predicted by PVNIR. Classification of heavy metals contamination grades in farmland soils was conducted based on previous results; the Kappa coefficient was 0.87, which showed that the combination of PXRF and PVNIR was an effective and rapid method to determine the degree of pollution with soil heavy metals. This study provides a new approach to assess soil heavy metals pollution; this method will facilitate large-scale surveys of soil heavy metal pollution.

  19. Rapid diagnosis and intraoperative margin assessment of human lung cancer with fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mengyan; Tang, Feng; Pan, Xiaobo; Yao, Longfang; Wang, Xinyi; Jing, Yueyue; Ma, Jiong; Wang, Guifang; Mi, Lan

    2017-12-01

    A method of rapidly differentiating lung tumor from healthy tissue is extraordinarily needed for both the diagnosis and the intraoperative margin assessment. We assessed the ability of fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) for differentiating human lung cancer and normal tissues with the autofluorescence, and also elucidated the mechanism in tissue studies and cell studies. A 15-patient testing group was used to compare FLIM results with traditional histopathology diagnosis. Based on the endogenous fluorescence lifetimes of the testing group, a criterion line was proposed to distinguish normal and cancerous tissues. Then by blinded examined 41 sections from the validation group of other 16 patients, the sensitivity and specificity of FLIM were determined. The cellular metabolism was studied with specific perturbations of oxidative phosphorylation and glycolysis in cell studies. The fluorescence lifetime of cancerous lung tissues is consistently lower than normal tissues, and this is due to the both decrease of reduced nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NADH) and flavin adenine dinucleotide (FAD) lifetimes. A criterion line of lifetime at 1920 ps can be given for differentiating human lung cancer and normal tissues.The sensitivity and specificity of FLIM for lung cancer diagnosis were determined as 92.9% and 92.3%. These findings suggest that NADH and FAD can be used to rapidly diagnose lung cancer. FLIM is a rapid, accurate and highly sensitive technique in the judgment during lung cancer surgery and it can be potential in earlier cancer detection.

  20. Picture Pile: A citizen-powered tool for rapid post-disaster damage assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danylo, Olha; Sturn, Tobias; Giovando, Cristiano; Moorthy, Inian; Fritz, Steffen; See, Linda; Kapur, Ravi; Girardot, Blake; Ajmar, Andrea; Giulio Tonolo, Fabio; Reinicke, Tobias; Mathieu, Pierre Philippe; Duerauer, Martina

    2017-04-01

    According to the World Bank's global risk analysis, around 34% of the total world's population lives in areas of high mortality risk from two or more natural hazards. Therefore, timely and innovative methods to rapidly assess damage to subsequently aid relief and recovery efforts are critical. In this field of post-disaster damage assessment, several crowdsourcing-based technological tools that engage citizens in carrying out various tasks, including data collection, satellite image analysis and online interactive mapping, have recently been developed. One such tool is Picture Pile, a cross-platform application that is designed as a generic and flexible tool for ingesting satellite imagery for rapid classification. As part of the ESA's Crowd4Sat initiative led by Imperative Space, this study develops a workflow for employing Picture Pile for rapid post-disaster damage assessment. We outline how satellite image interpretation tasks within Picture Pile can be crowdsourced using the example of Hurricane Matthew, which affected large regions of Haiti in September 2016. The application provides simple microtasks, where the user is presented with satellite images and is asked a simple yes/no question. A "before" disaster satellite image is displayed next to an "after" disaster image and the user is asked to assess whether there is any visible, detectable damage. The question is formulated precisely to focus the user's attention on a particular aspect of the damage. The user-interface of Picture Pile is also built for users to rapidly classify the images by swiping to indicate their answer, thereby efficiently completing the microstask. The proposed approach will not only help to increase citizen awareness of natural disasters, but also provide them with a unique opportunity to contribute directly to relief efforts. Furthermore, to gain confidence in the crowdsourced results, quality assurance methods were integrated during the testing phase of the application using image

  1. Patient safety competencies in undergraduate nursing students: a rapid evidence assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchi, Monica; Bressan, Valentina; Cadorin, Lucia; Pagnucci, Nicola; Tolotti, Angela; Valcarenghi, Dario; Watson, Roger; Bagnasco, Annamaria; Sasso, Loredana

    2016-12-01

    To identify patient safety competencies, and determine the clinical learning environments that facilitate the development of patient safety competencies in nursing students. Patient safety in nursing education is of key importance for health professional environments, settings and care systems. To be effective, safe nursing practice requires a good integration between increasing knowledge and the different clinical practice settings. Nurse educators have the responsibility to develop effective learning processes and ensure patient safety. Rapid Evidence Assessment. MEDLINE, CINAHL, SCOPUS and ERIC were searched, yielding 500 citations published between 1 January 2004-30 September 2014. Following the Rapid Evidence Assessment process, 17 studies were included in this review. Hawker's (2002) quality assessment tool was used to assess the quality of the selected studies. Undergraduate nursing students need to develop competencies to ensure patient safety. The quality of the pedagogical atmosphere in the clinical setting has an important impact on the students' overall level of competence. Active student engagement in clinical processes stimulates their critical reasoning, improves interpersonal communication and facilitates adequate supervision and feedback. Few studies describe the nursing students' patient safety competencies and exactly what they need to learn. In addition, studies describe only briefly which clinical learning environments facilitate the development of patient safety competencies in nursing students. Further research is needed to identify additional pedagogical strategies and the specific characteristics of the clinical learning environments that encourage the development of nursing students' patient safety competencies. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Quantile forecast discrimination ability and value

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Pinson, Pierre; Friederichs, Petra

    2015-01-01

    While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables. New tools dedicated to the assessment of forecast discrimination ability and forecast value are ...... is illustrated based on synthetic datasets, as well as for the case of global radiation forecasts from the high resolution ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Weather Service.......While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables. New tools dedicated to the assessment of forecast discrimination ability and forecast value...... are introduced here, based on quantile forecasts being the base product for the continuous case. The relative user characteristic (RUC) curve and the quantile value plot allow analysing the performance of a forecast for a specific user in a decision-making framework. The RUC curve is designed as a user...

  3. System Safety Assessment Based on Past Incidents in Oil and Gas Industries: A Focused Approach in Forecasting of Minor, Severe, Critical, and Catastrophic Incidents, 2010–2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Praveen Patel

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Accident in an occupation which occurred due to series of repetitive minor incidents within the working environment. This work demonstrates the critical system safety assessment based on various incidents that took place to the different system and subsystem of two Indian oil refineries in five years of span 2010 to 2015. The categorization of incidents and hazard rate function of each incident category were classified and calculated. The result of Weibull analysis estimators in the form of scale and shape parameters provides useful information of incidents forecasting and their patterns in a particular time.

  4. Rapid Assessment of Aircraft Structural Topologies for Multidisciplinary Optimization and Weight Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samareh, Jamshid A.; Sensmeier, mark D.; Stewart, Bret A.

    2006-01-01

    Algorithms for rapid generation of moderate-fidelity structural finite element models of air vehicle structures to allow more accurate weight estimation earlier in the vehicle design process have been developed. Application of these algorithms should help to rapidly assess many structural layouts before the start of the preliminary design phase and eliminate weight penalties imposed when actual structure weights exceed those estimated during conceptual design. By defining the structural topology in a fully parametric manner, the structure can be mapped to arbitrary vehicle configurations being considered during conceptual design optimization. Recent enhancements to this approach include the porting of the algorithms to a platform-independent software language Python, and modifications to specifically consider morphing aircraft-type configurations. Two sample cases which illustrate these recent developments are presented.

  5. Examining the Predictive Validity of a Dynamic Assessment of Decoding to Forecast Response Tier 2 to Intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Eunsoo; Compton, Donald L.; Fuchs, Doug; Fuchs, Lynn S.; Bouton, Bobette

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the role of a dynamic assessment (DA) of decoding in predicting responsiveness to Tier 2 small group tutoring in a response-to-intervention model. First-grade students (n=134) who did not show adequate progress in Tier 1 based on 6 weeks of progress monitoring received Tier 2 small-group tutoring in reading for 14 weeks. Student responsiveness to Tier 2 was assessed weekly with word identification fluency (WIF). A series of conditional individual growth curve analyses were completed that modeled the correlates of WIF growth (final level of performance and growth). Its purpose was to examine the predictive validity of DA in the presence of 3 sets of variables: static decoding measures, Tier 1 responsiveness indicators, and pre-reading variables (phonemic awareness, rapid letter naming, oral vocabulary, and IQ). DA was a significant predictor of final level and growth, uniquely explaining 3% – 13% of the variance in Tier 2 responsiveness depending on the competing predictors in the model and WIF outcome (final level of performance or growth). Although the additional variances explained uniquely by DA were relatively small, results indicate the potential of DA in identifying Tier 2 nonresponders. PMID:23213050

  6. Infrastructure Improvements for Snowmelt Runoff Forecasting and Assessments of Climate Change Impacts on Water Supplies in the Rio Grande Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rango, A.; Steele, C. M.; Demouche, L.

    2009-12-01

    In the Southwest US, the southern Rocky Mountains provide a significant orographic barrier to prevailing moisture-laden Westerly winds, which results in snow accumulation and melt, both vitally important to the region’s water resources. The inherent variability of meteorological conditions in the Southwest, during both snowpack buildup and depletion, requires improved spatially-distributed data. The population of ground-based networks (SNOTEL, SCAN, and weather stations) is sparse and does not satisfactorily represent the variability of snow accumulation and melt. Remote sensing can be used to supplement data from ground networks, but the most frequently available remotely sensed product with the highest temporal and spatial resolution, namely snow cover, only provides areal data and not snow volume. Fortunately, the Snowmelt Runoff Model(SRM), which was developed in mountainous regions of the world, including the Rio Grande basin, accepts snow covered area as one of its major input variables along with temperature and precipitation. With the growing awareness of atmospheric warming and the southerly location of Southwest watersheds, it has become apparent that the effects of climate change will be especially important for Southwestern water users. The NSF-funded EPSCoR project “Climate Change Impacts on New Mexico’s Mountain Sources of Water” (started in 2009) has focused on improving hydrometeorological measurements, developing basin-wide and sub-basin snow cover mapping methods, generating snowmelt runoff simulations, forecasts, and long-term climate change assessments, and informing the public of the results through outreach and educational activities. Five new SNOTEL and four new SCAN sites are being installed in 2009-2010 and 12 existing basic SNOTEL sites are being upgraded. In addition, 30 automated precipitation gages are being added to New Mexico measurement networks. The first phase of snow mapping and modeling has focused on four sub basins

  7. Utility and Usability of the Rapid Assessment of Hospital Procurement Barriers in Donation (RAPiD) as a Tool for OPO Hospital Development Staff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alolod, Gerard P; Traino, Heather M; Siminoff, Laura A

    2016-09-01

    Few systematic assessment tools are available to organ procurement organizations (OPOs) for evaluating donation climates of hospitals in their donation service areas (DSAs). The Rapid Assessment of hospital Procurement barriers in Donation (RAPiD) was developed for OPO hospital development staff to assess the organ donation climate of hospitals. To implement a national test of the RAPiD to examine its efficacy and usability by OPO hospital development staff. Two-arm randomized design, comparing implementation of RAPiD protocol between qualitatively trained researchers (n = 7) and OPO hospital development staff (n = 24); all evaluators received the same training assessments of high-yield hospitals. A total of 77 hospitals in DSAs of 8 OPOs. A total of 2552 health-care providers (HCPs) in high organ donor potential units. Twenty-four donation-related attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors. More HCPs interviewed in the autonomous condition were positive toward the concept of organ donation. However, HCPs in the assisted condition were more candid about and critical of the OPO. As for knowledge, fewer HCPs in the autonomous condition reported familiarity with the donation process, need for donors, and generally accepted timely referral criteria. With respect to behaviors, more respondents in the autonomous condition reported frequent or occasional contact with the OPO and routine or occasional referral criteria use. Due to issues of bias, inadequate research experience, conflicts of interest, and ongoing OPO hospital development initiatives, the RAPiD's usability by OPO-based hospital development staff is questionable and not recommended in its current form. A next generation of the RAPiD is described for future consideration. © 2016, NATCO.

  8. The FIBRO System: A Rapid Strategy for Assessment and Management of Fibromyalgia Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boomershine, Chad S

    2010-08-01

    Fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS) is a complex disorder of widespread pain and tenderness associated with numerous other symptoms including fatigue, cognitive dysfunction, nonrestorative sleep, depression, anxiety, and stiffness. While new diagnostic criteria and previous management guidelines require quantitation of the severity of associated FMS symptoms experienced by individual patients, no system for rapid patient assessment has been made available to provide a basis for diagnosis, treatment selection and follow-up for clinicians in busy practices who have limited time. This review presents the FIBRO System, an easily remembered system for FMS symptom quantitation using the FIBRO mnemonic along with verbal questions on simple 0-10 scales to assess symptom severity (the FIBRO Problem Scale) and response to treatment (the FIBRO Change Scale) along with recommendations for pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic therapies to address individual FIBRO symptoms. This symptom-based approach can improve the care of FMS patients by providing a comprehensive, focused assessment in limited time.

  9. Performance and quality assessment of the recent updated CMEMS global ocean monitoring and forecasting real-time system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Galloudec, Olivier; Lellouche, Jean-Michel; Greiner, Eric; Garric, Gilles; Régnier, Charly; Drévillon, Marie; Drillet, Yann

    2017-04-01

    Since May 2015, Mercator Ocean opened the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service (CMEMS) and is in charge of the global eddy resolving ocean analyses and forecast. In this context, Mercator Ocean currently delivers in real-time daily services (weekly analyses and daily forecast) with a global 1/12° high resolution system. The model component is the NEMO platform driven at the surface by the IFS ECMWF atmospheric analyses and forecasts. Observations are assimilated by means of a reduced-order Kalman filter with a 3D multivariate modal decomposition of the forecast error. It includes an adaptive-error estimate and a localization algorithm. Along track altimeter data, satellite Sea Surface Temperature and in situ temperature and salinity vertical profiles are jointly assimilated to estimate the initial conditions for numerical ocean forecasting. A 3D-Var scheme provides a correction for the slowly-evolving large-scale biases in temperature and salinity. R&D activities have been conducted at Mercator Ocean these last years to improve the real-time 1/12° global system for recent updated CMEMS version in 2016. The ocean/sea-ice model and the assimilation scheme benefited of the following improvements: large-scale and objective correction of atmospheric quantities with satellite data, new Mean Dynamic Topography taking into account the last version of GOCE geoid, new adaptive tuning of some observational errors, new Quality Control on the assimilated temperature and salinity vertical profiles based on dynamic height criteria, assimilation of satellite sea-ice concentration, new freshwater runoff from ice sheets melting, … This presentation will show the impact of some updates separately, with a particular focus on adaptive tuning experiments of satellite Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) observations errors. For the SLA, the a priori prescribed observation error is globally greatly reduced. The median value of the error changed

  10. An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Stephanie J.; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steven; Martin, Gill; MacLachlan, Craig

    2017-03-01

    We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art seasonal forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 Indian summer monsoon seasonal prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.

  11. Photographic assessment of nasal morphology following rapid maxillary expansion in children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Gabriel da Silva Filho

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study was to use facial analysis to determine the effects of rapid maxillary expansion (RME on nasal morphology in children in the stages of primary and mixed dentition, with posterior cross-bite. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Facial photographs (front view and profile of 60 patients in the pre-expansion period, immediate post-expansion period and one year following rapid maxillary expansion with a Haas appliance were evaluated on 2 occasions by 3 experienced orthodontists independently, with a 2-week interval between evaluations. The examiners were instructed to assess nasal morphology and had no knowledge regarding the content of the study. Intraexaminer and interexaminer agreement (assessed using the Kappa statistic was acceptable. RESULTS: From the analysis of the mode of the examiners' findings, no alterations in nasal morphology occurred regarding the following aspects: dorsum of nose, alar base, nasal width of middle third and nasal base. Alterations were only detected in the nasolabial angle in 1.64% of the patients between the pre-expansion and immediate post-expansion photographs. In 4.92% of the patients between the immediate post-expansion period and 1 year following expansion; and in 6.56% of the patients between the pre-expansion period and one year following expansion. CONCLUSIONS: RME performed on children in stages of primary and mixed dentition did not have any impact on nasal morphology, as assessed using facial analysis.

  12. Amniotic fluid volume: Rapid MR-based assessment at 28-32 weeks gestation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hilliard, N.J.; Hawkes, R.; Patterson, A.J.; Graves, M.J.; Priest, A.N.; Hunter, S.; Set, P.A.; Lomas, D.J. [Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Department of Radiology, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Lees, C. [Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, Department of Obstetrics and Fetal Medicine, London (United Kingdom)

    2016-10-15

    This work evaluates rapid magnetic resonance projection hydrography (PH) based amniotic fluid volume (AFV) estimates against established routine ultrasound single deepest vertical pocket (SDVP) and amniotic fluid index (AFI) measurements, in utero at 28-32 weeks gestation. Manual multi-section planimetry (MSP) based measurement of AFV is used as a proxy reference standard. Thirty-five women with a healthy singleton pregnancy (20-41 years) attending routine antenatal ultrasound were recruited. SDVP and AFI were measured using ultrasound, with same day MRI assessing AFV with PH and MSP. The relationships between the respective techniques were assessed using linear regression analysis and Bland-Altman method comparison statistics. When comparing estimated AFV, a highly significant relationship was observed between PH and the reference standard MSP (R{sup 2} = 0.802, p < 0.001). For the US measurements, SDVP measurement related most closely to amniotic fluid volume, (R{sup 2} = 0.470, p < 0.001), with AFI demonstrating a weaker relationship (R{sup 2} = 0.208, p = 0.007). This study shows that rapid MRI based PH measurement is a better predictor of AFV, relating more closely to our proxy standard than established US techniques. Although larger validation studies across a range of gestational ages are required this approach could form part of MR fetal assessment, particularly where poly- or oligohydramnios is suspected. (orig.)

  13. Can juvenile corals be surveyed effectively using digital photography?: implications for rapid assessment techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgess, Scott C; Osborne, Kate; Sfiligoj, Bianca; Sweatman, Hugh

    2010-12-01

    The widespread decline of coral reefs requires integrated management measures across whole regions. Knowledge of demographic processes of reef organisms is important for informed management, yet current techniques for assessing such processes are time consuming, making it impractical to gather relevant information over large scales. We tested the usefulness of digital still photography as a rapid assessment technique to estimate coral recruitment--an important process in coral reef recovery. Estimates of the density and diversity of juvenile hard corals from digital images were compared with direct visual estimates from the same plots made in the field. Multiple plots were sampled on four reefs from a range of locations on Australia's Great Barrier Reef. On average, estimates of juvenile densities from photographic images were lower, in both absolute and relative terms, than that estimated from images. This was the case whether colonies <20 mm or <50 mm in diameter were considered. Overall differences between methods were generally greater at reefs where recruitment was higher, though proportional differences (density from images/density from direct visual census) still varied among reefs. Although the ranking of taxa, in terms of their densities, from the two methods were similar, the density of common genera was generally underestimated in images, and the occurrence of 'unknown' taxa was higher. We conclude that photographic images do not constitute a reliable rapid assessment method for estimating the spatial patterns in the density or diversity of juvenile hard corals.

  14. Photographic assessment of nasal morphology following rapid maxillary expansion in children

    Science.gov (United States)

    da SILVA FILHO, Omar Gabriel; LARA, Tulio Silva; AYUB, Priscila Vaz; OHASHI, Amanda Sayuri Cardoso; BERTOZ, Francisco Antônio

    2011-01-01

    Objective The aim of the present study was to use facial analysis to determine the effects of rapid maxillary expansion (RME) on nasal morphology in children in the stages of primary and mixed dentition, with posterior cross-bite. Material and Methods Facial photographs (front view and profile) of 60 patients in the pre-expansion period, immediate post-expansion period and one year following rapid maxillary expansion with a Haas appliance were evaluated on 2 occasions by 3 experienced orthodontists independently, with a 2-week interval between evaluations. The examiners were instructed to assess nasal morphology and had no knowledge regarding the content of the study. Intraexaminer and interexaminer agreement (assessed using the Kappa statistic) was acceptable. Results From the analysis of the mode of the examiners' findings, no alterations in nasal morphology occurred regarding the following aspects: dorsum of nose, alar base, nasal width of middle third and nasal base. Alterations were only detected in the nasolabial angle in 1.64% of the patients between the pre-expansion and immediate post-expansion photographs. In 4.92% of the patients between the immediate post-expansion period and 1 year following expansion; and in 6.56% of the patients between the pre-expansion period and one year following expansion. Conclusion RME performed on children in stages of primary and mixed dentition did not have any impact on nasal morphology, as assessed using facial analysis. PMID:21986660

  15. Assessing health systems for type 1 diabetes in sub-Saharan Africa: developing a 'Rapid Assessment Protocol for Insulin Access'

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Courten Maximilian

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In order to improve the health of people with Type 1 diabetes in developing countries, a clear analysis of the constraints to insulin access and diabetes care is needed. We developed a Rapid Assessment Protocol for Insulin Access, comprising a series of questionnaires as well as a protocol for the gathering of other data through site visits, discussions, and document reviews. Methods The Rapid Assessment Protocol for Insulin Access draws on the principles of Rapid Assessment Protocols which have been developed and implemented in several different areas. This protocol was adapted through a thorough literature review on diabetes, chronic condition management and medicine supply in developing countries. A visit to three countries in sub-Saharan Africa and meetings with different experts in the field of diabetes helped refine the questionnaires. Following the development of the questionnaires these were tested with various people familiar with diabetes and/or healthcare in developing countries. The Protocol was piloted in Mozambique then refined and had two further iterations in Zambia and Mali. Translations of questionnaires were made into local languages when necessary, with back translation to ensure precision. Results In each country the protocol was implemented in 3 areas – the capital city, a large urban centre and a predominantly rural area and their respective surroundings. Interviews were carried out by local teams trained on how to use the tool. Data was then collected and entered into a database for analysis. Conclusion The Rapid Assessment Protocol for Insulin Access was developed to provide a situational analysis of Type 1 diabetes, in order to make recommendations to the national Ministries of Health and Diabetes Associations. It provided valuable information on patients' access to insulin, syringes, monitoring and care. It was thus able to sketch a picture of the health care system with regards to its ability to

  16. Rapid Assessment of Ecosystem Service Co-Benefits of Biodiversity Priority Areas in Madagascar.

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    Rachel A Neugarten

    Full Text Available The importance of ecosystems for supporting human well-being is increasingly recognized by both the conservation and development sectors. Our ability to conserve ecosystems that people rely on is often limited by a lack of spatially explicit data on the location and distribution of ecosystem services (ES, the benefits provided by nature to people. Thus there is a need to map ES to guide conservation investments, to ensure these co-benefits are maintained. To target conservation investments most effectively, ES assessments must be rigorous enough to support conservation planning, rapid enough to respond to decision-making timelines, and often must rely on existing data. We developed a framework for rapid spatial assessment of ES that relies on expert and stakeholder consultation, available data, and spatial analyses in order to rapidly identify sites providing multiple benefits. We applied the framework in Madagascar, a country with globally significant biodiversity and a high level of human dependence on ecosystems. Our objective was to identify the ES co-benefits of biodiversity priority areas in order to guide the investment strategy of a global conservation fund. We assessed key provisioning (fisheries, hunting and non-timber forest products, and water for domestic use, agriculture, and hydropower, regulating (climate mitigation, flood risk reduction and coastal protection, and cultural (nature tourism ES. We also conducted multi-criteria analyses to identify sites providing multiple benefits. While our approach has limitations, including the reliance on proximity-based indicators for several ES, the results were useful for targeting conservation investments by the Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund (CEPF. Because our approach relies on available data, standardized methods for linking ES provision to ES use, and expert validation, it has the potential to quickly guide conservation planning and investment decisions in other data-poor regions.

  17. A rapid murine coma and behavior scale for quantitative assessment of murine cerebral malaria.

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    Ryan W Carroll

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cerebral malaria (CM is a neurological syndrome that includes coma and seizures following malaria parasite infection. The pathophysiology is not fully understood and cannot be accounted for by infection alone: patients still succumb to CM, even if the underlying parasite infection has resolved. To that effect, there is no known adjuvant therapy for CM. Current murine CM (MCM models do not allow for rapid clinical identification of affected animals following infection. An animal model that more closely mimics the clinical features of human CM would be helpful in elucidating potential mechanisms of disease pathogenesis and evaluating new adjuvant therapies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A quantitative, rapid murine coma and behavior scale (RMCBS comprised of 10 parameters was developed to assess MCM manifested in C57BL/6 mice infected with Plasmodium berghei ANKA (PbA. Using this method a single mouse can be completely assessed within 3 minutes. The RMCBS enables the operator to follow the evolution of the clinical syndrome, validated here by correlations with intracerebral hemorrhages. It provides a tool by which subjects can be identified as symptomatic prior to the initiation of trial treatment. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Since the RMCBS enables an operator to rapidly follow the course of disease, label a subject as affected or not, and correlate the level of illness with neuropathologic injury, it can ultimately be used to guide the initiation of treatment after the onset of cerebral disease (thus emulating the situation in the field. The RMCBS is a tool by which an adjuvant therapy can be objectively assessed.

  18. Rapid Assessment of Ecosystem Service Co-Benefits of Biodiversity Priority Areas in Madagascar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andriamaro, Luciano; Cano, Carlos Andres; Grantham, Hedley S.; Hole, David; Juhn, Daniel; McKinnon, Madeleine; Rasolohery, Andriambolantsoa; Steininger, Marc; Wright, Timothy Max

    2016-01-01

    The importance of ecosystems for supporting human well-being is increasingly recognized by both the conservation and development sectors. Our ability to conserve ecosystems that people rely on is often limited by a lack of spatially explicit data on the location and distribution of ecosystem services (ES), the benefits provided by nature to people. Thus there is a need to map ES to guide conservation investments, to ensure these co-benefits are maintained. To target conservation investments most effectively, ES assessments must be rigorous enough to support conservation planning, rapid enough to respond to decision-making timelines, and often must rely on existing data. We developed a framework for rapid spatial assessment of ES that relies on expert and stakeholder consultation, available data, and spatial analyses in order to rapidly identify sites providing multiple benefits. We applied the framework in Madagascar, a country with globally significant biodiversity and a high level of human dependence on ecosystems. Our objective was to identify the ES co-benefits of biodiversity priority areas in order to guide the investment strategy of a global conservation fund. We assessed key provisioning (fisheries, hunting and non-timber forest products, and water for domestic use, agriculture, and hydropower), regulating (climate mitigation, flood risk reduction and coastal protection), and cultural (nature tourism) ES. We also conducted multi-criteria analyses to identify sites providing multiple benefits. While our approach has limitations, including the reliance on proximity-based indicators for several ES, the results were useful for targeting conservation investments by the Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund (CEPF). Because our approach relies on available data, standardized methods for linking ES provision to ES use, and expert validation, it has the potential to quickly guide conservation planning and investment decisions in other data-poor regions. PMID:28006005

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  14. pata Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. klgu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. pamc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kmsl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kbrl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. ksfb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kpsc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kely Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. ksyr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. katw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kama Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kpae Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kmli Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kokc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kjst Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kgup Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. padl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. klit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kalb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kact Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kink Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kshv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. pajn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kpna Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. ktph Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. ksux Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kcon Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. khio Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. konp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kpnc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kmlu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kgsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kgpt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kflo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. keri Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kcid Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. ksaf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kcvg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. ptya Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. katl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kmth Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. A robust method to forecast volcanic ash clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denlinger, Roger P.; Pavolonis, Mike; Sieglaff, Justin

    2012-01-01

    Ash clouds emanating from volcanic eruption columns often form trails of ash extending thousands of kilometers through the Earth's atmosphere, disrupting air traffic and posing a significant hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community charged with reducing flight risk must accurately assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. In response to this need, a number of different transport models have been developed for this purpose and applied to recent eruptions, providing a means to assess uncertainty in forecasts. Here we provide a framework for optimal forecasts and their uncertainties given any model and any observational data. This involves random sampling of the probability distributions of input (source) parameters to a transport model and iteratively running the model with different inputs, each time assessing the predictions that the model makes about ash dispersal by direct comparison with satellite data. The results of these comparisons are embodied in a likelihood function whose maximum corresponds to the minimum misfit between model output and observations. Bayes theorem is then used to determine a normalized posterior probability distribution and from that a forecast of future uncertainty in ash dispersal. The nature of ash clouds in heterogeneous wind fields creates a strong maximum likelihood estimate in which most of the probability is localized to narrow ranges of model source parameters. This property is used here to accelerate probability assessment, producing a method to rapidly generate a prediction of future ash concentrations and their distribution based upon assimilation of satellite data as well as model and data uncertainties. Applying this method to the recent eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, we show that the 3 and 6 h forecasts of ash cloud location probability encompassed the location of observed satellite-determined ash cloud loads, providing an

  16. Assessment of extreme quantitative precipitation forecasts and development of regional extreme event thresholds using data from HMT-2006 and COOP observers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralph, F.M.; Sukovich, E.; Reynolds, D.; Dettinger, M.; Weagle, S.; Clark, W.; Neiman, P.J.

    2010-01-01

    found that the thresholds for the top 1% and top 0.1%of precipitation events were 7.6 cm (24 h)21 [3.0 in. (24 h)-1] and 14.2 cm (24 h)-1 [5.6 in. (24 h)-1] or greater for the CNRFC and only 5.1 cm (24 h)-1 [2.0 in. (24 h)-1] and 9.4 cm (24 h)-1 [3.7 in. (24 h)-1] for the NWRFC, respectively. Similar analyses for all NWS RFCs showed that the threshold for the top 1% of events varies from;3.8 cm (24 h)-1 [1.5 in. (24 h)-1] in the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) to~5.1 cm (24 h)-1 [3.0 in. (24 h)-1] in the northern tier of RFCs and;7.6 cm (24 h)-1 [3.0 in. (24 h)-1] in both the southern tier and the CNRFC. It is recommended that NWS QPF performance in the future be assessed for extreme events using these thresholds. ?? 2010 American Meteorological Society.

  17. A RAPID ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR UNDERSTANDING THE SOCIAL COST OF CARBON

    OpenAIRE

    STEPHEN C. NEWBOLD; CHARLES GRIFFITHS; CHRIS MOORE; ANN WOLVERTON; ELIZABETH KOPITS

    2013-01-01

    The "social cost of carbon" (SCC) is the present value of the stream of future damages from one additional unit of carbon emissions in a particular year. This paper develops a rapid assessment model for the SCC. The model includes the essential ingredients for calculating the SCC at the global scale and is designed to be transparent and easy to use and modify. Our goal is to provide a tool to help analysts and decision-makers quickly explore the implications of various modeling assumptions fo...

  18. Photograph-based ergonomic evaluations using the Rapid Office Strain Assessment (ROSA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebregts, J; Sonne, M; Potvin, J R

    2016-01-01

    The Rapid Office Strain Assessment (ROSA) was developed to assess musculoskeletal disorder (MSD) risk factors for computer workstations. This study examined the validity and reliability of remotely conducted, photo-based assessments using ROSA. Twenty-three office workstations were assessed on-site by an ergonomist, and 5 photos were obtained. Photo-based assessments were conducted by three ergonomists. The sensitivity and specificity of the photo-based assessors' ability to correctly classify workstations was 79% and 55%, respectively. The moderate specificity associated with false positive errors committed by the assessors could lead to unnecessary costs to the employer. Error between on-site and photo-based final scores was a considerable ∼2 points on the 10-point ROSA scale (RMSE = 2.3), with a moderate relationship (ρ = 0.33). Interrater reliability ranged from fairly good to excellent (ICC = 0.667-0.856) and was comparable to previous results. Sources of error include the parallax effect, poor estimations of small joint (e.g. hand/wrist) angles, and boundary errors in postural binning. While this method demonstrated potential validity, further improvements should be made with respect to photo-collection and other protocols for remotely-based ROSA assessments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  19. Glider Data Based Rapid Environmental Assessment (REA) in the Northwest Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onken, Reiner; Mourre, Baptiste

    2013-04-01

    In September 2012, the CMRE conducted a REA experiment off the French Provence coast, the major elements of which were a ship-based oceanographic survey, the deployment of a fleet of underwater gliders and nowcast/forecast studies with the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). The objective was to provide in-situ data for assimilation in ROMS and to validate the ROMS forecasts against the observations. The observational data consisted of 63 CTD (Conductivity-Temperature-Depth) casts, data from six simultaneously operating Slocum gliders, trajectories of 19 surface drifters, time series data from seven moorings, and underway measurements with shipborne ADCP (Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler) and thermosalinograph. ROMS was set up with 32 layers in the vertical and ~1.9 km horizontal resolution, it was one-way nested in the Mediterranean Forecast System (MFS at 1/6 degree resolution), and the surface boundary conditions were provided by the COSMO atmospheric prediction model. Three different forecast strategies were pursued: (1) ROMS initialization from MFS and without assimilation of observations, (2) initialization from a quasi-synoptic data set of CTD and glider data, melded with MFS, and (3) initialization from MFS and with assimilation of glider data. The major intent of the first strategy was to demonstrate the impact of higher resolution, and to provide a background for the comparison with the other strategies. All three strategies performed well; the evaluation of the individual forecast skills of either strategy and the comparison among each other is in progress.

  20. Uncorrected refractive errors, presbyopia and spectacle coverage: results from a rapid assessment of refractive error survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marmamula, Srinivas; Keeffe, Jill E; Rao, Gullapalli N

    2009-01-01

    To investigate the prevalence of uncorrected refractive errors, presbyopia and spectacle coverage in subjects aged 15-50 years using rapid assessment methodology in the Mahabubnagar district of Andhra Pradesh, India. A population-based cross sectional study was conducted using cluster random sampling to enumerate 3,300 subjects from 55 clusters. Unaided, aided and pinhole visual acuity was assessed using a LogMAR chart at a distance of 4 meters. Near vision was assessed using N notation chart. Uncorrected refractive error was defined as presenting visual acuity worse than 6/12 but improving to at least 6/12 or better on using a pinhole. Presbyopia is defined as binocular near vision worse than N8 in subjects aged more than 35 years with binocular distance visual acuity of 6/12 or better. Of the 3,300 subjects enumerated from 55 clusters, 3,203 (97%) subjects were available for examination. Of these, 1,496 (46.7%) were females and 930 (29%) were > or = 40 years. Age and gender adjusted prevalence of uncorrected refractive errors causing visual impairment in the better eye was 2.7% (95% CI, 2.1-3.2%). Presbyopia was present in 690 (63.7%, 95% CI, 60.8-66.6%) subjects aged over 35 years. Spectacle coverage for refractive error was 29% and for presbyopia it was 19%. There is a large unmet need for refractive correction in this area in India. Rapid assessment methods are an effective means of assessing the need for services and the impact of models of care.

  1. Ranking of small scale proposals for water system repair using the Rapid Impact Assessment Matrix (RIAM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shakib-Manesh, T.E.; Hirvonen, K.O.; Jalava, K.J.; Ålander, T.; Kuitunen, M.T., E-mail: markku.kuitunen@jyu.fi

    2014-11-15

    Environmental impacts of small scale projects are often assessed poorly, or not assessed at all. This paper examines the usability of the Rapid Impact Assessment Matrix (RIAM) as a tool to prioritize project proposals for small scale water restoration projects in relation to proposals' potential to improve the environment. The RIAM scoring system was used to assess and rank the proposals based on their environmental impacts, the costs of the projects to repair the harmful impacts, and the size of human population living around the sites. A four-member assessment group (The expert panel) gave the RIAM-scores to the proposals. The assumed impacts of the studied projects at the Eastern Finland water systems were divided into the ecological and social impacts. The more detailed assessment categories of the ecological impacts in this study were impacts on landscape, natural state, and limnology. The social impact categories were impacts to recreational use of the area, fishing, industry, population, and economy. These impacts were scored according to their geographical and social significance, their magnitude of change, their character, permanence, reversibility, and cumulativeness. The RIAM method proved to be an appropriate and recommendable method for the small-scale assessment and prioritizing of project proposals. If the assessments are well documented, the RIAM can be a method for easy assessing and comparison of the various kinds of projects. In the studied project proposals there were no big surprises in the results: the best ranks were received by the projects, which were assumed to return watersheds toward their original state.

  2. The use of rapid review methods in health technology assessments: 3 case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaltenthaler, Eva; Cooper, Katy; Pandor, Abdullah; Martyn-St James, Marrissa; Chatters, Robin; Wong, Ruth

    2016-08-26

    Rapid reviews are of increasing importance within health technology assessment due to time and resource constraints. There are many rapid review methods available although there is little guidance as to the most suitable methods. We present three case studies employing differing methods to suit the evidence base for each review and outline some issues to consider when selecting an appropriate method. Three recently completed systematic review short reports produced for the UK National Institute for Health Research were examined. Different approaches to rapid review methods were used in the three reports which were undertaken to inform the commissioning of services within the NHS and to inform future trial design. We describe the methods used, the reasoning behind the choice of methods and explore the strengths and weaknesses of each method. Rapid review methods were chosen to meet the needs of the review and each review had distinctly different challenges such as heterogeneity in terms of populations, interventions, comparators and outcome measures (PICO) and/or large numbers of relevant trials. All reviews included at least 10 randomised controlled trials (RCTs), each with numerous included outcomes. For the first case study (sexual health interventions), very diverse studies in terms of PICO were included. P-values and summary information only were presented due to substantial heterogeneity between studies and outcomes measured. For the second case study (premature ejaculation treatments), there were over 100 RCTs but also several existing systematic reviews. Data for meta-analyses were extracted directly from existing systematic reviews with new RCT data added where available. For the final case study (cannabis cessation therapies), studies included a wide range of interventions and considerable variation in study populations and outcomes. A brief summary of the key findings for each study was presented and narrative synthesis used to summarise results for each

  3. Effect of horizontal and vertical resolution for wind resource assessment in Metro Manila, Philippines using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolentino, Jerome T.; Rejuso, Ma. Victoria; Inocencio, Loureal Camille; Ang, Ma. Rosario Concepcion; Bagtasa, Gerry

    2016-10-01

    Wind energy is one of the best options for renewable energy such that, many researchers work on wind resource assessment, specifically using numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to forecast atmospheric behavior on a given domain. In addition, every combination of parameterization configuration influences wind assessment. At the same time, choosing the optimum vertical and horizontal resolution may affect its output and processing time. Regardless of available researches, most of them focuses on mid-latitude area but not in tropical areas like the Philippines. In the study, sensitivity analysis of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.6.1 with 4 configurations was performed. The duration of the simulation was from January 1, 2014 00:00 to December 31, 2014 23:00. The parameters involved were horizontal resolution and vertical levels. Also, meteorological input data from NCEP Final Analysis with 1 degree resolution every 6 hours was used. For validation, wind speed measurements at 10 m height from NOAA Integrated Surface Database (ISD) were utilized, of which, the 3 weather stations are located in Manila, Science Garden and Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA). The results show that increasing horizontal resolution from 4 km to 1 km have no significant increase to wind speed accuracy. In majority, higher vertical levels tend to increase its accuracy. Moreover, the model has higher accuracy during the rainy season and months of April and May. Overall, the model overestimated the observed wind speed but the diurnal cycle of wind speed follows all the simulation.

  4. Rapid Traversability Assessment in 2.5D Grid-based Map on Rough Terrain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Huang

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a rapid traversability assessment approach based on an extended 2.5D grid-based representaion of the rough terrain. Stereo vision system is used to perceive the environment surrounding robot. Conventional 2D, 3D and other 2.5D grid maps determine the traversability indices of the grids directly from the sensor feedback, while our approach attempts to address the indices of terrain from multiple grids instead. By analyzing the properties of multiple grids that the robot is to traverse, passable grids are distinguished, which also takes the robot's size into account. Fuzzy logic framework is applied to extract traversabiltiy indices from the terrain characteristics. A soccer robot equipped with a stereo vision system is adopted for experiments. The results show that our map is capable of speeding the process of traversability assessment and providing an autonomous mobile robot with a appropriate representation of 3D uneven terrain profile.

  5. Face and Convergent Validity of Persian Version of Rapid Office Strain Assessment (ROSA Checklist

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afrouz Armal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this work was the translation, cultural adaptation and validation of the Persian version of the Rapid Office Stress Assessment (ROSA checklist. Material & Methods: This methodological study was conducted according of IQOLA method. 100 office worker were selected in order to carry out a psychometric evaluation of the ROSA checklist by performing validity (face and convergent analyses. The convergent validity was evaluated using RULA checklist. Results: Upon major changes made to the ROSA checklist during the translation/cultural adaptation process, face validity of the Persian version was obtained. Spearman correlation coefficient between total score of ROSA check list and RULA checklist was significant (r=0.76, p<0.0001. Conclusion: The results indicated that the translated version of the ROSA checklist is acceptable in terms of face validity, convergent validity in target society, and hence provides a useful instrument for assessing Iranian office workers

  6. Predicting Airport Screening Officers' Visual Search Competency With a Rapid Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitroff, Stephen R; Ericson, Justin M; Sharpe, Benjamin

    2017-11-01

    Objective The study's objective was to assess a new personnel selection and assessment tool for aviation security screeners. A mobile app was modified to create a tool, and the question was whether it could predict professional screeners' on-job performance. Background A variety of professions (airport security, radiology, the military, etc.) rely on visual search performance-being able to detect targets. Given the importance of such professions, it is necessary to maximize performance, and one means to do so is to select individuals who excel at visual search. A critical question is whether it is possible to predict search competency within a professional search environment. Method Professional searchers from the USA Transportation Security Administration (TSA) completed a rapid assessment on a tablet-based X-ray simulator (XRAY Screener, derived from the mobile technology app Airport Scanner; Kedlin Company). The assessment contained 72 trials that were simulated X-ray images of bags. Participants searched for prohibited items and tapped on them with their finger. Results Performance on the assessment significantly related to on-job performance measures for the TSA officers such that those who were better XRAY Screener performers were both more accurate and faster at the actual airport checkpoint. Conclusion XRAY Screener successfully predicted on-job performance for professional aviation security officers. While questions remain about the underlying cognitive mechanisms, this quick assessment was found to significantly predict on-job success for a task that relies on visual search performance. Application It may be possible to quickly assess an individual's visual search competency, which could help organizations select new hires and assess their current workforce.

  7. Xurography as a Rapid Fabrication Alternative for Point-of-Care Devices: Assessment of Passive Micromixers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-López, J. Israel; Mojica, Mauricio; Rodríguez, Ciro A.; Siller, Héctor R.

    2016-01-01

    Despite the copious amount of research on the design and operation of micromixers, there are few works regarding manufacture technology aimed at implementation beyond academic environments. This work evaluates the viability of xurography as a rapid fabrication tool for the development of ultra-low cost microfluidic technology for extreme Point-of-Care (POC) micromixing devices. By eschewing photolithographic processes and the bulkiness of pumping and enclosure systems for rapid fabrication and passively driven operation, xurography is introduced as a manufacturing alternative for asymmetric split and recombine (ASAR) micromixers. A T-micromixer design was used as a reference to assess the effects of different cutting conditions and materials on the geometric features of the resulting microdevices. Inspection by stereographic and confocal microscopy showed that it is possible to manufacture devices with less than 8% absolute dimensional error. Implementation of the manufacturing methodology in modified circular shape- based SAR microdevices (balanced and unbalanced configurations) showed that, despite the precision limitations of the xurographic process, it is possible to implement this methodology to produce functional micromixing devices. Mixing efficiency was evaluated numerically and experimentally at the outlet of the microdevices with performances up to 40%. Overall, the assessment encourages further research of xurography for the development of POC micromixers. PMID:27196904

  8. Xurography as a Rapid Fabrication Alternative for Point-of-Care Devices: Assessment of Passive Micromixers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-López, J Israel; Mojica, Mauricio; Rodríguez, Ciro A; Siller, Héctor R

    2016-05-16

    Despite the copious amount of research on the design and operation of micromixers, there are few works regarding manufacture technology aimed at implementation beyond academic environments. This work evaluates the viability of xurography as a rapid fabrication tool for the development of ultra-low cost microfluidic technology for extreme Point-of-Care (POC) micromixing devices. By eschewing photolithographic processes and the bulkiness of pumping and enclosure systems for rapid fabrication and passively driven operation, xurography is introduced as a manufacturing alternative for asymmetric split and recombine (ASAR) micromixers. A T-micromixer design was used as a reference to assess the effects of different cutting conditions and materials on the geometric features of the resulting microdevices. Inspection by stereographic and confocal microscopy showed that it is possible to manufacture devices with less than 8% absolute dimensional error. Implementation of the manufacturing methodology in modified circular shape- based SAR microdevices (balanced and unbalanced configurations) showed that, despite the precision limitations of the xurographic process, it is possible to implement this methodology to produce functional micromixing devices. Mixing efficiency was evaluated numerically and experimentally at the outlet of the microdevices with performances up to 40%. Overall, the assessment encourages further research of xurography for the development of POC micromixers.

  9. Xurography as a Rapid Fabrication Alternative for Point-of-Care Devices: Assessment of Passive Micromixers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Israel Martínez-López

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Despite the copious amount of research on the design and operation of micromixers, there are few works regarding manufacture technology aimed at implementation beyond academic environments. This work evaluates the viability of xurography as a rapid fabrication tool for the development of ultra-low cost microfluidic technology for extreme Point-of-Care (POC micromixing devices. By eschewing photolithographic processes and the bulkiness of pumping and enclosure systems for rapid fabrication and passively driven operation, xurography is introduced as a manufacturing alternative for asymmetric split and recombine (ASAR micromixers. A T-micromixer design was used as a reference to assess the effects of different cutting conditions and materials on the geometric features of the resulting microdevices. Inspection by stereographic and confocal microscopy showed that it is possible to manufacture devices with less than 8% absolute dimensional error. Implementation of the manufacturing methodology in modified circular shape- based SAR microdevices (balanced and unbalanced configurations showed that, despite the precision limitations of the xurographic process, it is possible to implement this methodology to produce functional micromixing devices. Mixing efficiency was evaluated numerically and experimentally at the outlet of the microdevices with performances up to 40%. Overall, the assessment encourages further research of xurography for the development of POC micromixers.

  10. Rapid assessment of rice seed availability for wildlife in harvested fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halstead, B.J.; Miller, M.R.; Casazza, Michael L.; Coates, P.S.; Farinha, M.A.; Benjamin, Gustafson K.; Yee, J.L.; Fleskes, J.P.

    2011-01-01

    Rice seed remaining in commercial fields after harvest (waste rice) is a critical food resource for wintering waterfowl in rice-growing regions of North America. Accurate and precise estimates of the seed mass density of waste rice are essential for planning waterfowl wintering habitat extents and management. In the Sacramento Valley of California, USA, the existing method for obtaining estimates of availability of waste rice in harvested fields produces relatively precise estimates, but the labor-, time-, and machineryintensive process is not practical for routine assessments needed to examine long-term trends in waste rice availability. We tested several experimental methods designed to rapidly derive estimates that would not be burdened with disadvantages of the existing method. We first conducted a simulation study of the efficiency of each method and then conducted field tests. For each approach, methods did not vary in root mean squared error, although some methods did exhibit bias for both simulations and field tests. Methods also varied substantially in the time to conduct each sample and in the number of samples required to detect a standard trend. Overall, modified line-intercept methods performed well for estimating the density of rice seeds. Waste rice in the straw, although not measured directly, can be accounted for by a positive relationship with density of rice on the ground. Rapid assessment of food availability is a useful tool to help waterfowl managers establish and implement wetland restoration and agricultural habitat-enhancement goals for wintering waterfowl. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

  11. Rapid assessment of large scale vegetation change based on multi-temporal phenological analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Danlu; Guan, Yanning; Guo, Shan; Yan, Baoping; Xing, Zhi; Zhang, Chunyan; Piao, Yingchao; An, Xudong; Kang, Lihua

    2011-11-01

    Detecting vegetation change is critical for earth system and sustainability science. The existing methods, however, show several limitations, including inevitable selection of imagery acquisition dates, affection from vegetation related noise on temporal trajectory analysis, and assumptions due to vegetation classification model. This paper presents a multitemporal phenological frequency analysis over a relatively short period (MTPFA-SP) methodology to detect vegetation changes. This MTPFA-SP methodology bases on the amplitude components of fast Fourier transforming (FFT) and is implemented with two steps. First, NDVI time series over two periods are transformed with FFT into frequency domain, separately. Second, amplitude components with phenological information from Step 1 are selected for further change comparison. In this methodology, component selection shows physical meanings of natural vegetation process in frequency domain. Comparisons among those selected components help enhance the ability to rapidly detect vegetation changes. To validate this MTPFA-SP methodology, we detect changes between two periods (2001-2005 and 2006-2010) in the eastern Tibet Plateau area and make two kinds of assessments. The first is for a larger scale, including statistic analysis of altitudinal zonality and latitudinal zonality. The second assessment is for rapid detection of vegetation change location. Landsat TM image were employed to validate the result.

  12. Use of refractometry and colorimetry as field methods to rapidly assess antimalarial drug quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Michael D; Nettey, Henry; Villalva Rojas, Ofelia; Pamanivong, Chansapha; Khounsaknalath, Lamphet; Grande Ortiz, Miguel; Newton, Paul N; Fernández, Facundo M; Vongsack, Latsamy; Manolin, Ot

    2007-01-04

    The proliferation of counterfeit and poor-quality drugs is a major public health problem; especially in developing countries lacking adequate resources to effectively monitor their prevalence. Simple and affordable field methods provide a practical means of rapidly monitoring drug quality in circumstances where more advanced techniques are not available. Therefore, we have evaluated refractometry, colorimetry and a technique combining both processes as simple and accurate field assays to rapidly test the quality of the commonly available antimalarial drugs; artesunate, chloroquine, quinine, and sulfadoxine. Method bias, sensitivity, specificity and accuracy relative to high-performance liquid chromatographic (HPLC) analysis of drugs collected in the Lao PDR were assessed for each technique. The HPLC method for each drug was evaluated in terms of assay variability and accuracy. The accuracy of the combined method ranged from 0.96 to 1.00 for artesunate tablets, chloroquine injectables, quinine capsules, and sulfadoxine tablets while the accuracy was 0.78 for enterically coated chloroquine tablets. These techniques provide a generally accurate, yet simple and affordable means to assess drug quality in resource-poor settings.

  13. Utilizing web-based geodata for rapid disaster identification and assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leith, Kerry; Schmitt, Michael; Sickert, Salomon; Metzger, Alex; Krautblatter, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Developing methods to rapidly locate and quantify the impact of natural disasters can aid both the coordination of emergency response, and the long-term understanding of natural hazards in a range of environmental settings. Gaining such quantitative data in the aftermath of landslide events is particularly challenging, as the localized nature, steep terrain, and frequent damage to infrastructure caused by common triggering events (e.g. earthquakes, storms) complicates traditional methods of survey and data communication. As a result, the first, and often best overview of disastrous events is typically provided by eyewitness or first-responder photographs distributed through official, or social media networks. Although these images allow for an initial qualitative assessment of the event, their ad-hoc nature does not currently allow for either precise location, or quantitative evaluation of key event parameters (e.g. structural setting, geology, geometry, size, transport path, or total fall height). Here we present two tools designed to facilitate initial location and assessment of key event parameters using a combination of freely available geodata and information derived from eyewitness observations. These tools are currently under development, and rely on the adaptation of existing photogrammetric techniques in order to allow users to rapidly map and quantify event parameters from a combination of ad-hoc media photographs, and existing orthophoto and digital terrain model data (e.g. LiDAR, SRTM, ASTER). By incorporating results in freely-available GIS platforms such as Google Earth, local authorities will be able to to better assess and disseminate information regarding the impact of natural disasters in the critical hours following an event. We expect that quantitative data derived from events will provide important information to allow geohazard researchers to better assess landslide generation, and authorities to better plan responses to future triggering

  14. Forecasting military expenditure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Böhmelt

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available To what extent do frequently cited determinants of military spending allow us to predict and forecast future levels of expenditure? The authors draw on the data and specifications of a recent model on military expenditure and assess the predictive power of its variables using in-sample predictions, out-of-sample forecasts and Bayesian model averaging. To this end, this paper provides guidelines for prediction exercises in general using these three techniques. More substantially, however, the findings emphasize that previous levels of military spending as well as a country’s institutional and economic characteristics particularly improve our ability to predict future levels of investment in the military. Variables pertaining to the international security environment also matter, but seem less important. In addition, the results highlight that the updated model, which drops weak predictors, is not only more parsimonious, but also slightly more accurate than the original specification.

  15. Satellites, tweets, forecasts: the future of flood disaster management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Lorini, Valerio; Wania, Annett; Pappenberger, Florian; Salamon, Peter; Ramos, Maria Helena; Cloke, Hannah; Castillo, Carlos

    2017-04-01

    Floods have devastating effects on lives and livelihoods around the world. Structural flood defence measures such as dikes and dams can help protect people. However, it is the emerging science and technologies for flood disaster management and preparedness, such as increasingly accurate flood forecasting systems, high-resolution satellite monitoring, rapid risk mapping, and the unique strength of social media information and crowdsourcing, that are most promising for reducing the impacts of flooding. Here, we describe an innovative framework which integrates in real-time two components of the Copernicus Emergency mapping services, namely the European Flood Awareness System and the satellite-based Rapid Mapping, with new procedures for rapid risk assessment and social media and news monitoring. The integrated framework enables improved flood impact forecast, thanks to the real-time integration of forecasting and monitoring components, and increases the timeliness and efficiency of satellite mapping, with the aim of capturing flood peaks and following the evolution of flooding processes. Thanks to the proposed framework, emergency responders will have access to a broad range of timely and accurate information for more effective and robust planning, decision-making, and resource allocation.

  16. Relevance of new multispectral imagery for assessing tropical forest disturbance: RapidEye and WorldView-2

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Cho, Moses A

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The aims of this study were to assess utility of RapidEye imagery for predicting leaf nitrogen concentration and evaluate the effects of forest fragmentation on leaf nitrogen distribution in the Dukuduku forest, KwaZulu Natal, South Africa. Rapid...

  17. Applying an improved rapid impact assessment matrix method to strategic environmental assessment of urban planning in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Wei, E-mail: weili@bnu.edu.cn; Xie, Yuanbo, E-mail: former_007@163.com; Hao, Fanghua, E-mail: fanghua@bnu.edu.cn

    2014-04-01

    Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) has become an increasingly important decision-support tool for providing information on the environmental implications of a policy, plan, or program. The goal is to safeguard the environment and promote sustainable development at the strategic level. Despite major progress in implementing SEA practices internationally, developing countries, such as China, often lag behind in applying SEA methodology. Lack of available data and time constraints arising from tight schedules create problems. The rapid impact assessment matrix (RIAM) is a potential resource for breaking through such difficulties. Our analysis of RIAM applications suggested that it could become a tool for evaluating strategic alternatives because of its applicability in interdisciplinary settings, its transparency, and its short implementation timeframe. To make it more suitable for the SEA context, we have developed two major improvements to the conventional RIAM process: assignment of weights to assessment indicators and the development of an integrated environmental assessment score (IES). The improved RIAM process was employed in an SEA of the development plan for the Nansha District in Guangzhou, the capital city of Guangdong Province in China. It was used to assess five alternatives for development in Wanqingsha (WQS), a subunit of Nansha, where important ecological resources are located and where industrial development could impact the air quality in the neighboring Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The evaluation identified WQS-A04 as the preferred alternative. This alternative involved a minimal amount of industrial development – 10% compared with the most intense development alternative – and included important wetland preservation plans. The assessment results have been incorporated into the officially approved development plan for Nansha. The improved RIAM methodology is well adapted to the technical aims of SEA and decision

  18. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  19. The Cultural Dimensions of Freshwater Wetland Assessments: Lessons Learned from the Application of US Rapid Assessment Methods in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaucherand, Stéphanie; Schwoertzig, Eugénie; Clement, Jean-Christophe; Johnson, Brad; Quétier, Fabien

    2015-07-01

    Given the recent strengthening of wetland restoration and protection policies in France, there is need to develop rapid assessment methods that provide a cost-effective way to assess losses and gains of wetland functions. Such methods have been developed in the US and we tested six of them on a selection of contrasting wetlands in the Isère watershed. We found that while the methods could discriminate sites, they did not always give consistent rankings, thereby revealing the different assumptions they explicitly or implicitly incorporate. The US assessment methods commonly use notions of "old-growth" or "pristine" to define the benchmark conditions against which to assess wetlands. Any reference-based assessment developed in the US would need adaptation to work in the French context. This could be quite straightforward for the evaluation of hydrologic variables as scoring appears to be consistent with the best professional judgment of hydrologic condition made by a panel of French local experts. Approaches to rating vegetation condition and landscape context, however, would require substantial reworking to reflect a novel view of reference standard. Reference standard in the European context must include acknowledgement that many of the best condition and biologically important wetland types in France are the product of intensive, centuries-long management (mowing, grazing, etc.). They must also explicitly incorporate the recent trend in ecological assessment to focus particularly on the wetland's role in landscape-level connectivity. These context-specific, socio-cultural dimensions must be acknowledged and adjusted for when adapting or developing wetland assessment methods in new cultural contexts.

  20. Quality of life assessment in domestic dogs: An evidence-based rapid review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belshaw, Z; Asher, L; Harvey, N D; Dean, R S

    2015-11-01

    Assessment of quality of life (QoL) is an important, increasingly popular outcome measure in veterinary research and practice, particularly in dogs. In humans, QoL is commonly assessed by self-reporting and since this is not possible for animals, it is crucial that instruments designed to measure QoL are tested for reliability and validity. Using a systematic, replicable literature search strategy, the aim of this study was to find published, peer-reviewed instruments for QoL assessment in dogs and to assess the quality of these. CAB Abstracts and PubMed were searched in July 2013 using terms relevant to dogs, wellbeing and QoL. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied. When instruments were not published in full, authors were contacted to obtain them. Criteria were applied to assess the quality, validity and reliability of the 52 instruments obtained. Twenty-seven additional instruments used in peer-reviewed publications were not included because they had not been fully described in the publication or were not provided by authors upon request. Most of the instruments reviewed (48/52) were disease-specific rather than generic. Only four publications provided a definition of QoL or wellbeing. Only 11/52 instruments demonstrated evidence of assessing reliability or validity, and the quality of these instruments was variable. Many novel, unvalidated instruments have been generated and applied as clinical outcomes before it was known whether they measured QoL. This rapid review can be used to identify currently available and validated canine QoL instruments, and to assess the validity and quality of new or existing instruments. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  1. Scaling up success to improve health: Towards a rapid assessment guide for decision makers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Paltzer

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Evidence-based health interventions exist and are effectively implemented throughout resource-limited settings. The literature regarding scale-up strategies and frameworks is growing. The purpose of this paper is to identify and systematically document the variation in scale-up strategies to develop a rapid assessment tool for decision-makers looking to identify the most appropriate strategy for their organizational and environmental contexts. Methods A list of scale-up strategies and frameworks were identified through an in-depth literature review and conversations with scale-up and quality improvement leaders. The literature search included a broad range of terms that might be used interchangeably with scale-up of best practices. Terms included: implementation research, knowledge translation, translational research, quality improvement research, health systems improvement, scale-up, best practices, improvement collaborative, and community based research. Based on this research, 18 strategies and frameworks were identified, and nine met our inclusion criteria for scale-up of health-related strategies. We interviewed the key contact for four of the nine strategies to obtain additional information regarding the strategy’s scale-up components, targets, underlying theories, evaluation efforts, facilitating factors, and barriers. A comparative analysis of common elements and strategy characteristics was completed by two of the authors on the nine selected strategies. Key strategy characteristics and common factors that facilitate or hinder the strategy’s success in scaling up health-related interventions were identified. Results Common features of scale-up strategies include: 1 the development of context-specific evidence; 2 collaborative partnerships; 3 iterative processes; and 4 shared decision-making. Facilitating factors include strong leadership, community engagement, communication, government collaboration, and a focus on

  2. Sediment Processes on the Coral Reefs of Kahoolawe: A Rapid Field Assessment in 1993 (NODC Accession 0000883)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The nearshore coral ecosystems of Kahoolawe were rapidly assessed in 1993. Surveys were made of the coral coverage, fish communities, and sediment types from 19...

  3. Pacific Islands Coral Reef Ecosystems Division (CRED) Rapid Ecological Assessment (REA) algae species lists (NODC Accession 0010352)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Quadrats were sampled along consecutively placed transect lines as part of Rapid Ecological Assessments conducted at sites in American Pacific Islands: CRED REA...

  4. Multi-model seasonal forecast of Arctic sea-ice: forecast uncertainty at pan-Arctic and regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.; Barthélemy, A.; Chevallier, M.; Cullather, R.; Fučkar, N.; Massonnet, F.; Posey, P.; Wang, W.; Zhang, J.; Ardilouze, C.; Bitz, C. M.; Vernieres, G.; Wallcraft, A.; Wang, M.

    2017-08-01

    Dynamical model forecasts in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) of September Arctic sea-ice extent over the last decade have shown lower skill than that found in both idealized model experiments and hindcasts of previous decades. Additionally, it is unclear how different model physics, initial conditions or forecast post-processing (bias correction) techniques contribute to SIO forecast uncertainty. In this work, we have produced a seasonal forecast of 2015 Arctic summer sea ice using SIO dynamical models initialized with identical sea-ice thickness in the central Arctic. Our goals are to calculate the relative contribution of model uncertainty and irreducible error growth to forecast uncertainty and assess the importance of post-processing, and to contrast pan-Arctic forecast uncertainty with regional forecast uncertainty. We find that prior to forecast post-processing, model uncertainty is the main contributor to forecast uncertainty, whereas after forecast post-processing forecast uncertainty is reduced overall, model uncertainty is reduced by an order of magnitude, and irreducible error growth becomes the main contributor to forecast uncertainty. While all models generally agree in their post-processed forecasts of September sea-ice volume and extent, this is not the case for sea-ice concentration. Additionally, forecast uncertainty of sea-ice thickness grows at a much higher rate along Arctic coastlines relative to the central Arctic ocean. Potential ways of offering spatial forecast information based on the timescale over which the forecast signal beats the noise are also explored.

  5. Rapid quality assessment of Radix Aconiti Preparata using direct analysis in real time mass spectrometry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu Hongbin; Wang Chunyan; Qi Yao [Changchun Center of Mass Spectrometry and Chemical Biology Laboratory, Changchun Institute of Applied Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130022 (China); University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039 (China); Song Fengrui, E-mail: songfr@ciac.jl.cn [Changchun Center of Mass Spectrometry and Chemical Biology Laboratory, Changchun Institute of Applied Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130022 (China); Liu Zhiqiang; Liu Shuying [Changchun Center of Mass Spectrometry and Chemical Biology Laboratory, Changchun Institute of Applied Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130022 (China)

    2012-11-08

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer DART MS combined with PCA and HCA was used to rapidly identify markers of Radix Aconiti. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The DART MS behavior of six aconitine-type alkaloids was investigated. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Chemical markers were recognized between the qualified and unqualified samples. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer DART MS was shown to be an effective tool for quality control of Radix Aconiti Preparata. - Abstract: This study presents a novel and rapid method to identify chemical markers for the quality control of Radix Aconiti Preparata, a world widely used traditional herbal medicine. In the method, the samples with a fast extraction procedure were analyzed using direct analysis in real time mass spectrometry (DART MS) combined with multivariate data analysis. At present, the quality assessment approach of Radix Aconiti Preparata was based on the two processing methods recorded in Chinese Pharmacopoeia for the purpose of reducing the toxicity of Radix Aconiti and ensuring its clinical therapeutic efficacy. In order to ensure the safety and effectivity in clinical use, the processing degree of Radix Aconiti should be well controlled and assessed. In the paper, hierarchical cluster analysis and principal component analysis were performed to evaluate the DART MS data of Radix Aconiti Preparata samples in different processing times. The results showed that the well processed Radix Aconiti Preparata, unqualified processed and the raw Radix Aconiti could be clustered reasonably corresponding to their constituents. The loading plot shows that the main chemical markers having the most influence on the discrimination amongst the qualified and unqualified samples were mainly some monoester diterpenoid aconitines and diester diterpenoid aconitines, i.e. benzoylmesaconine, hypaconitine, mesaconitine, neoline, benzoylhypaconine, benzoylaconine, fuziline, aconitine and 10-OH-mesaconitine. The established DART MS approach in

  6. The Rapid Assessment Interface and Discharge service and its implications for patients with dementia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh I

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Inderpal Singh,1 Sharan Ramakrishna,1 Kathryn Williamson21Department of Geriatric Medicine, 2Department of Old Age Psychiatry, Ysbyty Ystrad Fawr, Ystrad Mynach, Caerphilly, United KingdomAbstract: The rising prevalence of dementia will have an effect on acute care hospitals around the world. At present, around 40% of patients older than 70 years with acute medical admissions have dementia, but only half of these patients have been diagnosed. Patients with dementia have poorer health outcomes, longer hospital stays, and higher rates of readmissions and institutionalization. Worldwide, health care budgets are severely constrained. National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE has listed ten quality standards for supporting people in living well with dementia. NICE resource implications and commissioning support to implement these guidelines and improve dementia services have been recently published. Although most of the frail elderly patients with dementia are cared for by geriatricians, obstacles to making a diagnosis and to the management of dementia have been recognized. To provide a timely diagnosis of dementia, better care in acute hospital settings, and continuity of care in the community, services integrating all these elements are warranted. Extra resources also will be required for intermediate, palliative care, and mental health liaison services for people with dementia. The Birmingham Rapid Assessment Interface and Discharge service model uses a multiskilled team that provides comprehensive assessment of a person's physical and psychological well-being in a general hospital setting. It has been shown to be an effective model in terms of reducing both length of stay and avoiding readmission. The aim of this review is to discuss the implications of the Rapid Assessment Interface and Discharge model in people with dementia and to critically compare this model with similar published service provisions.Keywords: comorbidity, aged

  7. Performance Assessment of GPS-Sensed Precipitable Water Vapor using IGS Ultra-Rapid Orbits: A Preliminary Study in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon-Soo Choi

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV is a significant variable used for climate change studies. Currently PWV can be derived from the Global Positioning System (GPS observation in addition to the specific instruments such as Radiosondes (RS, Microwave Radiometers (MWR and Meteorological Satellites. To accurately derive PWV from GPS data, long periods of observation time in conjunction with final orbit data have to be applied in the data processing steps. This final orbit data can be acquired from the International GNSS Service (IGS with 13 days latency, which is not practical in climate change studies or meteorological forecasting. Alternatively, real-time ultra-rapid orbits are more suitable for this application but with lower orbit accuracy. It is therefore interesting to evaluate the impact of using different orbits in the estimation of PWV. In this study, data from permanent GPS base stations in Thailand were processed using Bernese 5.0 software to derive near real-time PWV values. Ultra-rapid orbit data have been introduced in the data processing step with different time windows and compared to that using final orbit data with the 24-hr time window. The results have shown that 1.0 mm and 2.9 mm biases can be achieved using 24-hr and 12-hr time windows, respectively. These results therefore address the potential use of ultra-rapid orbits for a near real-time estimation of PWV.

  8. Short-term Forecasting of the Prevalence of Trachoma: Expert Opinion, Statistical Regression, versus Transmission Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fengchen; Porco, Travis C.; Amza, Abdou; Kadri, Boubacar; Nassirou, Baido; West, Sheila K.; Bailey, Robin L.; Keenan, Jeremy D.; Solomon, Anthony W.; Emerson, Paul M.; Gambhir, Manoj; Lietman, Thomas M.

    2015-01-01

    Background Trachoma programs rely on guidelines made in large part using expert opinion of what will happen with and without intervention. Large community-randomized trials offer an opportunity to actually compare forecasting methods in a masked fashion. Methods The Program for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma trials estimated longitudinal prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection from 24 communities treated annually with mass azithromycin. Given antibiotic coverage and biannual assessments from baseline through 30 months, forecasts of the prevalence of infection in each of the 24 communities at 36 months were made by three methods: the sum of 15 experts’ opinion, statistical regression of the square-root-transformed prevalence, and a stochastic hidden Markov model of infection transmission (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible, or SIS model). All forecasters were masked to the 36-month results and to the other forecasts. Forecasts of the 24 communities were scored by the likelihood of the observed results and compared using Wilcoxon’s signed-rank statistic. Findings Regression and SIS hidden Markov models had significantly better likelihood than community expert opinion (p = 0.004 and p = 0.01, respectively). All forecasts scored better when perturbed to decrease Fisher’s information. Each individual expert’s forecast was poorer than the sum of experts. Interpretation Regression and SIS models performed significantly better than expert opinion, although all forecasts were overly confident. Further model refinements may score better, although would need to be tested and compared in new masked studies. Construction of guidelines that rely on forecasting future prevalence could consider use of mathematical and statistical models. PMID:26302380

  9. Short-term Forecasting of the Prevalence of Trachoma: Expert Opinion, Statistical Regression, versus Transmission Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fengchen; Porco, Travis C; Amza, Abdou; Kadri, Boubacar; Nassirou, Baido; West, Sheila K; Bailey, Robin L; Keenan, Jeremy D; Solomon, Anthony W; Emerson, Paul M; Gambhir, Manoj; Lietman, Thomas M

    2015-08-01

    Trachoma programs rely on guidelines made in large part using expert opinion of what will happen with and without intervention. Large community-randomized trials offer an opportunity to actually compare forecasting methods in a masked fashion. The Program for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma trials estimated longitudinal prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection from 24 communities treated annually with mass azithromycin. Given antibiotic coverage and biannual assessments from baseline through 30 months, forecasts of the prevalence of infection in each of the 24 communities at 36 months were made by three methods: the sum of 15 experts' opinion, statistical regression of the square-root-transformed prevalence, and a stochastic hidden Markov model of infection transmission (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible, or SIS model). All forecasters were masked to the 36-month results and to the other forecasts. Forecasts of the 24 communities were scored by the likelihood of the observed results and compared using Wilcoxon's signed-rank statistic. Regression and SIS hidden Markov models had significantly better likelihood than community expert opinion (p = 0.004 and p = 0.01, respectively). All forecasts scored better when perturbed to decrease Fisher's information. Each individual expert's forecast was poorer than the sum of experts. Regression and SIS models performed significantly better than expert opinion, although all forecasts were overly confident. Further model refinements may score better, although would need to be tested and compared in new masked studies. Construction of guidelines that rely on forecasting future prevalence could consider use of mathematical and statistical models. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00792922.

  10. Critical assessment of the forecasting capability of L-band scintillation over the magnetic equatorial region - Campaign results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagiya, Mala S.; Sridharan, R.; Sunda, Surendra; Jose, Lijo; Pant, Tarun K.; Choudhary, Rajkumar

    2014-04-01

    A critical evaluation of the novel method suggested by Sridharan et al. (2012) to forecast L-band scintillation is made using the results from a special campaign conducted from Trivandrum (8.5°N, 76.91°E, dip latitude 0.5°N), India, during April 2012. The significance of the campaign lies in the fact that, (1) efforts are made to minimise the uncertainties due to the movement of the satellite platform (TEC and S4 observations from GNSS satellites) by choosing a recently launched GSAT-8 geostationary satellite for ionospheric scintillation in L1 band, (2) unlike the previous study (Sridharan et al., 2012) wherein the GPS derived TEC fluctuations were treated as representative of ionospheric perturbations, in the present exercise, the fluctuating component of the foF2 data from the ground based digital Ionosonde have been taken as a measure of the perturbations and (3) though both the GSAT and Ionosonde are stationary, still the ionospheric regions they represent are physically separated and in order to correlate the scintillation over the GSAT location to the forecast perturbations over the ionosonde location, the required zonal velocity of the perturbations/irregularities is estimated using GSAT and GPS scintillation data during one of the close-by GPS passes and this is taken to represent the particular solar epoch and season. Following the earlier method of Sridharan et al. (2012) the relative amplitudes and phase integrity of the perturbations have been maintained and extended throughout night. By adopting the above changes, it has been noted that the forecasting capability of L band scintillation has remarkably improved vindicating the role of perturbations in the evolution of the scintillation, thus making it more useful for practical applications. The nonoccurrence of scintillation on occasions in the prescribed time windows has also been understood based on the changes in the background conditions. A threshold upward velocity for the evening F-region as

  11. Assessing the usability and potential value of seasonal climate forecasts in land management decisions in the southwest UK: challenges and reflections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Marta Bruno

    2017-06-01

    The potential usability and benefits of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) to help inform decision-making processes is widely accepted. However, the practical use of SCF in Europe is still fairly recent and, as such, current knowledge of the added benefits of SCF in supporting and improving decision-making is limited. This study is based on research conducted to co-develop a semi-operational climate service prototype - the Land Management Tool (LMTool) - with farmers in South West regions of the UK. The value of the SCF provided to the farmers was examined to help us understand the usability and (potential) value of these forecasts in farmers' decisions during the winter months of 2015/2016. The findings from the study point to the need to explore and develop (new) research methods capable of addressing the complexity of the decision-making processes, such as those in the farming sector. The farmers who used the SCF perceived it as useful and usable as it helped them change and adapt their decision-making and thus, avoid unnecessary costs. However, to fully grasp the potential value of using SCF, farmers emphasised the need for the provision of SCF for longer periods of time to allow them to build trust and confidence in the information provided. This paper contributes to ongoing discussions about how to assess the use and value of SCF in decision-making processes in a meaningful and effective way.

  12. Assessment of the impact of FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 GNSS RO observations on mid- and low-latitude ionosphere specification and forecast using observing system simulation experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, C. T.; Matsuo, T.; Yue, X.; Liu, J. Y. G.; Yue, X.

    2016-12-01

    The Formosa Satellite-7/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate-2 (FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2) GNSS RO payload can provide global observations of slant total electron content (sTEC) with unprecedentedly high spatial temporal resolution. By using observing system simulation experiments, we can quantitatively assess the impact of FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 GNSS RO data on ionospheric specification and forecast. For this purpose, a coupled model of the Global Ionosphere Plasmasphere and the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model is incorporated into the NOAA ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation system. In ensemble Kalman filtering, it is critical to minimize the effects of sampling errors on the ensemble-based estimation of the correlation between observations and model states, in order to obtain high quality assimilation analysis. This presentation will demonstrate how an auxiliary ensemble Kalman filtering technique designed specifically for the FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 sTEC observations can enhance the impacts of FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 GNSS RO data on mid- and low-latitude ionospheric specification and forecast.

  13. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and Objectives With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Method In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012–2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. Results According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (−€9,367 million), France

  14. Six rapid assessments of alcohol and other substance use in populations displaced by conflict

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adelekan Moruf

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Substance use among populations displaced by conflict is a neglected area of public health. Alcohol, khat, benzodiazepine, opiate, and other substance use have been documented among a range of displaced populations, with wide-reaching health and social impacts. Changing agendas in humanitarian response-including increased prominence of mental health and chronic illness-have so far failed to be translated into meaningful interventions for substance use. Methods Studies were conducted from 2006 to 2008 in six different settings of protracted displacement, three in Africa (Kenya, Liberia, northern Uganda and three in Asia (Iran, Pakistan, and Thailand. We used intervention-oriented qualitative Rapid Assessment and Response methods, adapted from two decades of experience among non-displaced populations. The main sources of data were individual and group interviews conducted with a culturally representative (non-probabilistic sample of community members and service providers. Results Widespread use of alcohol, particularly artisanally-produced alcohol, in Kenya, Liberia, Uganda, and Thailand, and opiates in Iran and Pakistan was believed by participants to be linked to a range of health, social and protection problems, including illness, injury (intentional and unintentional, gender-based violence, risky behaviour for HIV and other sexually transmitted infection and blood-borne virus transmission, as well as detrimental effects to household economy. Displacement experiences, including dispossession, livelihood restriction, hopelessness and uncertain future may make communities particularly vulnerable to substance use and its impact, and changing social norms and networks (including the surrounding population may result in changed - and potentially more harmful-patterns of use. Limited access to services, including health services, and exclusion from relevant host population programmes, may exacerbate the harmful consequences

  15. Advances in Solar Power Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haupt, S. E.; Kosovic, B.; Drobot, S.

    2014-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research and partners are building a blended SunCast Solar Power Forecasting system. This system includes several short-range nowcasting models and improves upon longer range numerical weather prediction (NWP) models as part of the "Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting." The nowcasting models being built include statistical learning models that include cloud regime prediction, multiple sky imager-based advection models, satellite image-based advection models, and rapid update NWP models with cloud assimilation. The team has also integrated new modules into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to better predict clouds, aerosols, and irradiance. The modules include a new shallow convection scheme; upgraded physics parameterizations of clouds; new radiative transfer modules that specify GHI, DNI, and DIF prediction; better satellite assimilation methods; and new aerosol estimation methods. These new physical models are incorporated into WRF-Solar, which is then integrated with publically available NWP models via the Dynamic Integrated Forecast (DICast) system as well as the Nowcast Blender to provide seamless forecasts at partner utility and balancing authority commercial solar farms. The improvements will be described and results to date discussed.

  16. The “jaundice hotline” for the rapid assessment of patients with jaundice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Jonathan; Hussaini, Hyder; McGovern, Dermot; Farrow, Richard; Maskell, Giles; Dalton, Harry

    2002-01-01

    Problem Patients with jaundice require rapid diagnosis and treatment, yet such patients are often subject to delay. Design An open referral, rapid access jaundice clinic was established by reorganisation of existing services and without the need for significant extra resources. Background and setting A large general hospital in a largely rural and geographically isolated area. Key measures for improvement Waiting times for referral, consultation, diagnosis, and treatment, length of stay in hospital, and general practitioners' and patients' satisfaction with the service. Strategies for change Referrals were made through a 24 hour telephone answering machine and fax line. Initial assessment of patients was carried out by junior staff as part of their working week. Dedicated ultrasonography appointments were made available. Effects of change Of 107 patients seen in the first year of the service, 62 had biliary obstruction. The mean time between referral and consultation was 2.5 days. Patients who went on to endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography waited 5.7 days on average. The mean length of stay in hospital in the 69 patients who were admitted was 6.1 days, compared with 11.5 days in 1996, as shown by audit data. Nearly all the 36 general practices (95%) and the 30 consecutive patients (97%) that were surveyed rated the service as above average or excellent. Lessons learnt An open referral, rapid access service for patients with jaundice can shorten time to diagnosis and treatment and length of stay in hospital. These improvements can occur through the reorganisation of existing services and with minimal extra cost. PMID:12142314

  17. Assessing North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast skill to assist in the early warning of hydrometeorological extremes over East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Roberts, Jason B.; Hoell. Andrew,; Funk, Chris; Robertson, Franklin R.; Kirtmann, Benjamin

    2016-01-01

    The skill of North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecasts in East Africa (EA), which encompasses one of the most food and water insecure areas of the world, is evaluated using deterministic, categorical, and probabilistic evaluation methods. The skill is estimated for all three primary growing seasons: March–May (MAM), July–September (JAS), and October–December (OND). It is found that the precipitation forecast skill in this region is generally limited and statistically significant over only a small part of the domain. In the case of MAM (JAS) [OND] season it exceeds the skill of climatological forecasts in parts of equatorial EA (Northern Ethiopia) [equatorial EA] for up to 2 (5) [5] months lead. Temperature forecast skill is generally much higher than precipitation forecast skill (in terms of deterministic and probabilistic skill scores) and statistically significant over a majority of the region. Over the region as a whole, temperature forecasts also exhibit greater reliability than the precipitation forecasts. The NMME ensemble forecasts are found to be more skillful and reliable than the forecast from any individual model. The results also demonstrate that for some seasons (e.g. JAS), the predictability of precipitation signals varies and is higher during certain climate events (e.g. ENSO). Finally, potential room for improvement in forecast skill is identified in some models by comparing homogeneous predictability in individual NMME models with their respective forecast skill.

  18. Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractMacro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average,

  19. Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractMany macroeconomic forecasts and forecast updates like those from IMF and OECD typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive,

  20. Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

    2015-12-01

    The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help

  1. Rapid in situ assessment of physiological activities in bacterial biofilms using fluorescent probes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, F. P.; McFeters, G. A.

    1994-01-01

    Two rapid in situ enumeration methods using fluorescent probes were used to assess the physiological activities of Klebsiella pneumoniae biofilms on stainless steel. Fluorescent dyes, 5-cyano-2,3-ditolyl tetrazolium chloride (CTC) and rhodamine 123 (Rh 123), were chosen to perform this study. CTC is a soluble redox indicator which can be reduced by respiring bacteria to fluorescent CTC-formazan crystals. Rh 123 is incorporated into bacteria with respect to cellular proton motive force. The intracellular accumulation of these fluorescent dyes can be determined using epifluorescence microscopy. The results obtained with these two fluorescent probes in situ were compared to the plate count (PC) and in situ direct viable count (DVC) methods. Viable cell densities within biofilms determined by the three in situ methods were comparable and always showed approximately 2-fold higher values than those obtained with the PC method. As an additional advantage, the results were observed after 2 h, which was shorter than the 4 h incubation time required for the DVC method and 24 h for colony formation. The results indicate that staining with CTC and Rh 123 provides rapid information regarding cell numbers and physiological activities of bacteria within biofilms.

  2. A rapid assessment survey of invasive species of macrobenthic invertebrates in Korean waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Chul; Kim, Sung-Tae; Hong, Jae-Sang; Choi, Keun-Hyung

    2017-09-01

    Introduced species are a growing and imminent threat to living marine resources in parts of the world's oceans. The present study is a rapid assessment survey of invasive macrobenthic invertebrate species in Korean ports. We surveyed over 40 ports around Korea during the period of May 2010 March 2013. Among the sampling sites were concrete walls, docks and associated floats, bumpers, tires, and ropes which might harbor non-native species. We found 15 invasive species as follows: one Sponge, two Bryozoans, three Mollusks, one Polychaete, four Cirripedes, and four Ascidians. Three morphologically similar species, namely X. atrata, M. galloprovincialis, and X. securis were further examined for distinctions in their morphology. Although they could be reasonably distinguished based on shell shapes, significant overlap was noted so that additional analysis may be required to correctly distinguish them. Although many of the introduced species have already spread to all three coastal areas, newly arrived invasive species showed a relatively restricted range, with a serpulid polychaete Ficopomatus enigmaticus and a mytilid bivalve Xenostrobus securis found only at a few sites on the East Coast. An exception is for Balanus perforatus, which has rapidly colonized the East coast of Korea following its introduction into the region. Successful management of invasive macrobenthic invertebrates should be established in order to contain the spread of these newly arrived species.

  3. Rapid health response, assessment, and surveillance after a tsunami--Thailand, 2004-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-28

    On December 26, 2004, an earthquake triggered a devastating tsunami that caused an estimated 225,000 deaths in eight countries (India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Maldives, Seychelles, Somalia, Sri Lanka, and Thailand) on two continents. In Thailand, six provinces (Krabi, Phang-Nga, Phuket, Ranong, Satun, and Trang) were impacted, including prominent international tourist destinations. The Thai Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) responded with rapid mobilization of local and nonlocal clinicians, public health practitioners, and medical supplies; assessment of health-care needs; identification of the dead, injured, and missing; and active surveillance of syndromic illness. The MOPH response was augmented by technical assistance from the Thai MOPH-U.S. CDC Collaboration (TUC) and the Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences (AFRIMS), with support from the office of the World Health Organization (WHO) representative to Thailand. This report summarizes these activities. The experiences in Thailand underscore the value of written and rehearsed disaster plans, capacity for rapid mobilization, local coordination of relief activities, and active public health surveillance.

  4. Rapid non-destructive assessment of pork edible quality by using VIS/NIR spectroscopic technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Leilei; Peng, Yankun; Dhakal, Sagar; Song, Yulin; Zhao, Juan; Zhao, Songwei

    2013-05-01

    The objectives of this research were to develop a rapid non-destructive method to evaluate the edible quality of chilled pork. A total of 42 samples were packed in seal plastic bags and stored at 4°C for 1 to 21 days. Reflectance spectra were collected from visible/near-infrared spectroscopy system in the range of 400nm to 1100nm. Microbiological, physicochemical and organoleptic characteristics such as the total viable counts (TVC), total volatile basic-nitrogen (TVB-N), pH value and color parameters L* were determined to appraise pork edible quality. Savitzky-Golay (SG) based on five and eleven smoothing points, Multiple Scattering Correlation (MSC) and first derivative pre-processing methods were employed to eliminate the spectra noise. The support vector machines (SVM) and partial least square regression (PLSR) were applied to establish prediction models using the de-noised spectra. A linear correlation was developed between the VIS/NIR spectroscopy and parameters such as TVC, TVB-N, pH and color parameter L* indexes, which could gain prediction results with Rv of 0.931, 0.844, 0.805 and 0.852, respectively. The results demonstrated that VIS/NIR spectroscopy technique combined with SVM possesses a powerful assessment capability. It can provide a potential tool for detecting pork edible quality rapidly and non-destructively.

  5. Rapid in situ assessment for predicting soil quality using an algae-soaked disc seeding assay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nam, Sun-Hwa; Moon, Jongmin; Kim, Shin Woong; Kim, Hakyeong; Jeong, Seung-Woo; An, Youn-Joo

    2017-11-16

    The soil quality of remediated land is altered and this land consequently exerts unexpected biological effects on terrestrial organisms. Therefore, field evaluation of such land should be conducted using biological indicators. Algae are a promising new biological indicator since they are a food source for organisms in higher soil trophic levels and easily sampled from the soil. Field evaluation of soil characteristics is preferred to be testing in laboratory conditions because many biological effects cannot be duplicated during laboratory evaluations. Herein, we describe a convenient and rapid algae-soaked disc seeding assay for assessing soil quality in the field based on soil algae. The collection of algae is easy and rapid and the method predicts the short-term quality of contaminated, remediated, and amended farm and paddy soils. The algae-soaked disc seeding assay is yet to be extensively evaluated, and the method cannot be applied to loamy sand soil in in situ evaluations. The algae-soaked disc seeding assay is recommended for prediction of soil quality in in situ evaluations because it reflects all variations in the environment. The algae-soaked disc seeding assay will help to develop management strategies for in situ evaluation.

  6. Assessing the skill of seasonal meteorological forecast products for predicting droughts and water scarcity in highly regulated basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Squeri, Marika; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Marcos-Garcia, Patricia; Macian-Sorribes, Hector

    2017-04-01

    Drought and water scarcity are important issues in Southern Europe and many predictions suggest that their frequency and severity will increase over the next years, potentially leading to negative environmental and socio-economic impacts. This work focuses on the Jucar river basin, located in the hinterland of Valencia (Eastern Spain), which is historically affected by long and severe dry periods that negatively impact several economic sectors, with irrigated agriculture representing the main consumptive demand in the basin (79%). Monitoring drought and water scarcity is crucial to activate timely drought management strategies in the basin. However, most traditional drought indexes fail in detecting critical events due to the large presence of human regulation supporting the irrigated agriculture. Over the last 20 years, a sophisticated drought monitoring system has been set up to properly capture the status of the catchment by means of the state index, a weighted linear combination of twelve indicators that depends on observations of precipitation, streamflow, reservoirs' storages and groundwater levels in representative locations at the basin. In this work, we explore the possibility of predicting the state index, which is currently used only as a monitoring tool, in order to prompt anticipatory actions before the drought/water scarcity event starts. In particular, we test the forecasting skill of retrospective seasonal meteorological predictions from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System 4. The 7-months lead time of these products allows predicting in February the values of the state index until September, thus covering the entire agricultural season. Preliminary results suggest that the Sys4-ECMWF products are skillful in predicting the state index, potentially supporting the design of anticipatory drought management actions.

  7. Rapid and Quantitative Assessment of Cancer Treatment Response Using In Vivo Bioluminescence Imaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alnawaz Rehemtulla

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Current assessment of orthotopic tumor models in animals utilizes survival as the primary therapeutic end point. In vivo bioluminescence imaging (BLI is a sensitive imaging modality that is rapid and accessible, and may comprise an ideal tool for evaluating antineoplastic therapies [1 ]. Using human tumor cell lines constitutively expressing luciferase, the kinetics of tumor growth and response to therapy have been assessed in intraperitoneal [2], subcutaneous, and intravascular [3] cancer models. However, use of this approach for evaluating orthotopic tumor models has not been demonstrated. In this report, the ability of BLI to noninvasively quantitate the growth and therapeuticinduced cell kill of orthotopic rat brain tumors derived from 9L gliosarcoma cells genetically engineered to stably express firefly luciferase (9LLuc was investigated. Intracerebral tumor burden was monitored over time by quantitation of photon emission and tumor volume using a cryogenically cooled CCD camera and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, respectively. There was excellent correlation (r=0.91 between detected photons and tumor volume. A quantitative comparison of tumor cell kill determined from serial MRI volume measurements and BLI photon counts following 1,3-bis(2-chloroethyl-1-nitrosourea (BCNU treatment revealed that both imaging modalities yielded statistically similar cell kill values (P=.951. These results provide direct validation of BLI imaging as a powerful and quantitative tool for the assessment of antineoplastic therapies in living animals.

  8. Evaluation of ergonomic postures of dental professions by Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA, in Birjand, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nasl Saraji J.

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available Statement of Problem: Musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs are major parts of the occupational diseases in workplaces. Protection from such diseases is dependent on assessment and improvement of job postures by using job analysis methods in ergonomics. Purpose: This study was aimed to evaluate ergonomic conditions in dental professions by rapid entire body assessment (REBA in Birjand city and also to assess the relation between MSDS in different parts of the body and work conditions. Materials and Methods: This study was a descriptive-analytical approach performed on 48 persons working at different professions by using REBA method. The prevalence of MSDs was obtained by using Nordic Musculoskeletal Questionnaire (NMQ. The data were analyzed by independent t-test, Chi-square and Fisher tests with P<0.05 as the limit of significance. Results: In this investigation, the prevalence of disorders for different parts of the body was as follows: 65% for neck, 60% for back, 38% for shoulders, and 31% for wrist. These disorders were higher in women than men except for the back. There were significant correlation between disorders of femur and foreleg with work history, ankle and sole with body mass index (BMI, and MSDs with work conditions (P<0.05. Conclusion: It is concluded that the work conditions and postures need to be improved. In addition the level of dental professional education regarding biomechanical hazardous effects as well as correct work conditions and postures should be increased.

  9. Ecosytem Services: A Rapid Assessment Method Tested at 35 Sites of the LTER-Europe Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dick Jan

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The identification of parameters to monitor the ecosystem services delivered at a site is fundamental to the concept’s adoption as a useful policy instrument at local, national and international scales. In this paper we (i describe the process of developing a rapid comprehensive ecosystem service assessment methodology and (ii test the applicability of the protocol at 35 long-term research (LTER sites across 14 countries in the LTER-Europe network (www.lter-europe.net including marine, urban, agricultural, forest, desert and conservation sites. An assessment of probability of occurrence with estimated confidence score using 83 ecosystem service parameters was tested. The parameters were either specific services like food production or proxies such as human activities which were considered surrogates for cultural diversity and economic activity. This initial test of the ecosystem service parameter list revealed that the parameters tested were relatively easy to score by site managers with a high level of certainty (92% scored as either occurring or not occurring at the site with certainty of over 90%. Based on this assessment, we concluded that (i this approach to operationalise the concept of ecosystem services is practical and applicable by many sectors of civil society as a first screen of the ecosystem services present at a site, (ii this study has direct relevance to land management and policy decision makers as a transparent vehicle to focus testing scenarios and target data gathering, but (iii further work beyond the scale investigated here is required to ensure global applicability.

  10. Rapid health assessments of evacuation centres in areas affected by Typhoon Haiyan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Alma Ramos

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Typhoon Haiyan caused thousands of deaths and catastrophic destruction, leaving many homeless in Region 8 of the Philippines. A team from the Philippine Field Epidemiology Training Program conducted a rapid health assessment survey of evacuation centres severely affected by Haiyan. Methods: A descriptive study was conducted whereby a convenience sample of evacuation centres were assessed on the number of toilets per evacuee, sanitation, drinking-water, food supply source and medical services. Results: Of the 20 evacuation centres assessed, none had a designated manager. Most were located in schools (70% with the estimated number of evacuees ranging from 15 to 5000 per centre. Only four (20% met the World Health Organization standard for number of toilets per evacuee; none of the large evacuation centres had even half the recommended number of toilets. All of the evacuation centres had available drinking-water. None of the evacuation centres had garbage collection, vector control activities or standby medical teams. Fourteen (70% evacuation centres had onsite vaccination activities for measles, tetanus and polio virus. Many evacuation centres were overcrowded. Conclusion: Evacuation centres are needed in almost every disaster. They should be safely located and equipped with the required amenities. In disaster-prone areas such as the Philippines, schools and community centres should not be designated as evacuation centres unless they are equipped with adequate sanitation services.

  11. Application of a voltammetric electronic tongue and near infrared spectroscopy for a rapid umami taste assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagnasco, Lucia; Cosulich, M Elisabetta; Speranza, Giovanna; Medini, Luca; Oliveri, Paolo; Lanteri, Silvia

    2014-08-15

    The relationships between sensory attribute and analytical measurements, performed by electronic tongue (ET) and near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS), were investigated in order to develop a rapid method for the assessment of umami taste. Commercially available umami products and some aminoacids were submitted to sensory analysis. Results were analysed in comparison with the outcomes of analytical measurements. Multivariate exploratory analysis was performed by principal component analysis (PCA). Calibration models for prediction of the umami taste on the basis of ET and NIR signals were obtained using partial least squares (PLS) regression. Different approaches for merging data from the two different analytical instruments were considered. Both of the techniques demonstrated to provide information related with umami taste. In particular, ET signals showed the higher correlation with umami attribute. Data fusion was found to be slightly beneficial - not so significantly as to justify the coupled use of the two analytical techniques. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. A participatory action research pilot study of urban health disparities using rapid assessment response and evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, David Richard; Hernández, Agueda; Saint-Jean, Gilbert; Evans, Siân; Tafari, Ida; Brewster, Luther G; Celestin, Michel J; Gómez-Estefan, Carlos; Regalado, Fernando; Akal, Siri; Nierenberg, Barry; Kauschinger, Elaine D; Schwartz, Robert; Page, J Bryan

    2008-01-01

    Healthy People 2010 made it a priority to eliminate health disparities. We used a rapid assessment response and evaluation (RARE) to launch a program of participatory action research focused on health disparities in an urban, disadvantaged Black community serviced by a major south Florida health center. We formed partnerships with community members, identified local health disparities, and guided interventions targeting health disparities. We describe the RARE structure used to triangulate data sources and guide intervention plans as well as findings and conclusions drawn from scientific literature and epidemiological, historic, planning, clinical, and ethnographic data. Disenfranchisement and socioeconomic deprivation emerged as the principal determinants of local health disparities and the most appropriate targets for intervention.

  13. RAPID EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT OF NATIONWIDE RIVER FLOOD FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Kwak

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available considerably increased. For flood disaster risk reduction, it is important to identify and characterize flood area, locations (particularly lowland along rivers, and durations. For this purpose, flood mapping and monitoring are an imperative process and the fundamental part of risk management as well as emergency response. Our ultimate goal is to detect flood inundation areas over a nationwide scale despite limitations of optical and multispectral images, and to estimate flood risk in terms of affected people. We propose a methodological possibility to be used as a standard approach for nationwide rapid flood exposure assessment with the use of the multi-temporal Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS, a big contributor to progress in near-real-time flood mapping. The preliminary results in Bangladesh show that a propensity of flood risk change strongly depends on the temporal and spatial dynamics of exposure such as distributed population.

  14. Professional Development Needs of Novice Nursing Clinical Teachers: A Rapid Evidence Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jetha, Farah; Boschma, Geertje; Clauson, Marion

    2016-02-26

    The current nursing profession is challenged with a decreasing supply of competent clinical teachers due to several factors consequently impacting the quality of nursing education. To meet this demand, academic nursing programs are resorting to hiring expert nurses who may have little or no teaching experience. They need support during their transition from practice to teaching. Using the systematic approach of a Rapid Evidence Assessment (REA), scholarly literature was reviewed to identify existing professional development needs for novice clinical teachers as well as supportive strategies to aid the transition of experienced nurses into teaching practice. The REA included 29 relevant studies. Findings revealed three main professional development needs for novice clinical teachers and key supportive strategies. Based on these findings recommendations for best practices to support and prepare novice clinical teachers are presented.

  15. Additional Interventions to Enhance the Effectiveness of Individual Placement and Support: A Rapid Evidence Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naomi Boycott

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Topic. Additional interventions used to enhance the effectiveness of individual placement and support (IPS. Aim. To establish whether additional interventions improve the vocational outcomes of IPS alone for people with severe mental illness. Method. A rapid evidence assessment of the literature was conducted for studies where behavioural or psychological interventions have been used to supplement standard IPS. Published and unpublished empirical studies of IPS with additional interventions were considered for inclusion. Conclusions. Six published studies were found which compared IPS alone to IPS plus a supplementary intervention. Of these, three used skills training and three used cognitive remediation. The contribution of each discrete intervention is difficult to establish. Some evidence suggests that work-related social skills and cognitive training are effective adjuncts, but this is an area where large RCTs are required to yield conclusive evidence.

  16. Rapid assessment of antimicrobial resistance prevalence using a Lot Quality Assurance sampling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leth, Frank; den Heijer, Casper; Beerepoot, Mariëlle; Stobberingh, Ellen; Geerlings, Suzanne; Schultsz, Constance

    2017-04-01

    Increasing antimicrobial resistance (AMR) requires rapid surveillance tools, such as Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS). LQAS classifies AMR as high or low based on set parameters. We compared classifications with the underlying true AMR prevalence using data on 1335 Escherichia coli isolates from surveys of community-acquired urinary tract infection in women, by assessing operating curves, sensitivity and specificity. Sensitivity and specificity of any set of LQAS parameters was above 99% and between 79 and 90%, respectively. Operating curves showed high concordance of the LQAS classification with true AMR prevalence estimates. LQAS-based AMR surveillance is a feasible approach that provides timely and locally relevant estimates, and the necessary information to formulate and evaluate guidelines for empirical treatment.

  17. [Development and scientific rationale for a universal index for rapid assessment of readability].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teksheva, L M

    2007-01-01

    The hygienic regulations of academic books, including teachware, for children and adolescents necessitate the performance of special studies to assess their readability by the unified procedure that would suggest a visual response while reading. This study has developed and warranted a universal readability index by the velocity of reading. There are significant regression correlations between the velocity of reading as the readability index and the degree of tiredness, detected by various visual functions. The parameters of accommodation and adaptive properties of the eye are most sensitive to visual load on reading. Reading velocity as an indicator of readability of illogical texts may be used as a rapid method under laboratory and natural conditions to determine the action of various textual loads on the visual system.

  18. Reliable and Rapid Robotic Assessment of Wrist Proprioception Using a Gauge Position Matching Paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinderknecht, Mike D.; Popp, Werner L.; Lambercy, Olivier; Gassert, Roger

    2016-01-01

    Quantitative assessments of position sense are essential for the investigation of proprioception, as well as for diagnosis, prognosis and treatment planning for patients with somatosensory deficits. Despite the development and use of various paradigms and robotic tools, their clinimetric properties are often poorly evaluated and reported. A proper evaluation of the latter is essential to compare results between different studies and to identify the influence of possible confounds on outcome measures. The aim of the present study was to perform a comprehensive evaluation of a rapid robotic assessment of wrist proprioception using a passive gauge position matching task. Thirty-two healthy subjects undertook six test-retests of proprioception of the right wrist on two different days. The constant error (CE) was 0.87°, the absolute error (AE) was 5.87°, the variable error (VE) was 4.59° and the total variability (E) was 6.83° in average for the angles presented in the range from 10° to 30°. The intraclass correlation analysis provided an excellent reliability for CE (0.75), good reliability for AE (0.68) and E (0.68), and fair reliability for VE (0.54). Tripling the assessment length had negligible effects on the reliabilities. Additional analysis revealed significant trends of larger overestimation (constant errors), as well as larger absolute and variable errors with increased flexion angles. No proprioceptive learning occurred, despite increased familiarity with the task, which was reflected in significantly decreased assessment duration by 30%. In conclusion, the proposed automated assessment can provide sensitive and reliable information on proprioceptive function of the wrist with an administration time of around 2.5 min, demonstrating the potential for its application in research or clinical settings. Moreover, this study highlights the importance of reporting the complete set of errors (CE, AE, VE, and E) in a matching experiment for the identification of

  19. International Workshop on Industry Practices for Forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Poggi, Jean-Michel; Brossat, Xavier

    2015-01-01

    The chapters in this volume stress the need for advances in theoretical understanding to go hand-in-hand with the widespread practical application of forecasting in industry. Forecasting and time series prediction have enjoyed considerable attention over the last few decades, fostered by impressive advances in observational capabilities and measurement procedures. On June 5-7, 2013, an international Workshop on Industry Practices for FORecasting was held in Paris, France, organized and supported by the OSIRIS Department of Electricité de France Research and Development Division. In keeping with tradition, both theoretical statistical results and practical contributions on this active field of statistical research and on forecasting issues in a rapidly evolving industrial environment are presented. The volume reflects the broad spectrum of the conference, including 16 articles contributed by specialists in various areas. The material compiled is broad in scope and ranges from new findings on forecasting in in...

  20. HESS Opinions "Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Alfieri, L.; Cloke, H. L.; Thielen-del Pozo, J.; Balabanova, S.; Daňhelka, J.; Vogelbacher, A.; Salamon, P.; Carrasco, I.; Cabrera-Tordera, A. J.; Corzo-Toscano, M.; Garcia-Padilla, M.; Garcia-Sanchez, R. J.; Ardilouze, C.; Jurela, S.; Terek, B.; Csik, A.; Casey, J.; Stankūnavičius, G.; Ceres, V.; Sprokkereef, E.; Stam, J.; Anghel, E.; Vladikovic, D.; Alionte Eklund, C.; Hjerdt, N.; Djerv, H.; Holmberg, F.; Nilsson, J.; Nyström, K.; Sušnik, M.; Hazlinger, M.; Holubecka, M.

    2013-11-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  1. A New Rapid In Vitro Assay for Assessing Reactivity of Acyl Glucuronides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Sheng; Jones, Russell; Lu, Wenzhe; Schadt, Simone; Ottaviani, Giorgio

    2015-11-01

    Idiosyncratic drug toxicity is a major challenge for the pharmaceutical industry since complex and multifactorial steps are involved, the dose-dependency is unclear, and its occurrence is not reliably predictable. Whereas the exact mechanisms leading to idiosyncratic toxicity remain elusive in many cases, there are often hints at the involvement of reactive metabolites, such as acyl glucuronides formed by conjugation of carboxylic acids with glucuronic acid. Because the patient-related susceptibilities leading to idiosyncratic toxicity are not sufficiently understood, the best option for the pharmaceutical industry is to minimize drug-related risk factors such as potential acyl glucuronide formation. Here, we describe a rapid in vitro assay for the assessment of the reactivity of acyl glucuronides, on the basis of acyl glucuronide migration, that can support the selection of low-risk drug candidates in the drug discovery phase. Twenty marketed compounds with a wide range of half-lives were tested, their acyl glucuronide migration rates were determined and compared with the half-lives of the respective acyl glucuronides. Ranking of acyl glucuronide stability using this method compared well with the results from existing methodologies. With this method, migration rates >20% would indicate higher risk of reactivity. This simpler approach using the acyl glucuronide migration rate is not dependent on authentic standards, therefore eliminating the requirement for either lengthy chemical synthesis or in vitro biosynthesis and purification of the 1-O-β-glucuronide. This methodology provides a rapid in vitro assay to assess acyl glucuronide stability and reactivity that is well suited for use early in the drug discovery phase. Copyright © 2015 by The American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.

  2. Rapid Cost Assessment of Space Mission Concepts Through Application of Complexity-Based Cost Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Craig E.; Cutts, James; Balint, Tibor; Hall, James B.

    2008-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the development of a rapid cost assessment models for evaluation of exploration missions through the application of complexity based cost indices. In Fall of 2004, NASA began developing 13 documents, known as "strategic roadmaps," intended to outline a strategy for space exploration over the next 30 years. The Third Strategic Roadmap, The Strategic Roadmap for Solar System Exploration, focused on strategy for robotic exploration of the Solar System. Development of the Strategic Roadmap for Solar System Exploration led to the investigation of a large variety of missions. However, the necessity of planning around scientific inquiry and budgetary constraints made it necessary for the roadmap development team to evaluate potential missions not only for scientific return but also cost. Performing detailed cost studies for each of the large number of missions was impractical given the time constraints involved and lack of detailed mission studies; so a method of rapid cost assessment was developed by us to allow preliminary analysis. It has been noted that there is a strong correlation between complexity and cost and schedule of planetary missions. While these correlations were made after missions had been built and flown (successfully or otherwise), it seemed likely that a similar approach could provide at least some relative cost ranking. Cost estimation relationships (CERs) have been developed based on subsystem design choices. These CERs required more detailed information than available, forcing the team to adopt a more high level approach. Costing by analogy has been developed for small satellites, however, planetary exploration missions provide such varying spacecraft requirements that there is a lack of adequately comparable missions that can be used for analogy.

  3. Rapid Assessment of Health Services in Punjab using a Mixed Method Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajesh Kumar

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The out-of-pocket expenditure is quite high in Punjab. Hence, a rapid review of health facilities was undertaken to suggest remedial measures. Methods: Mixed method research approach was used to identify strengths and weaknesses of the health services in Punjab. All health institutions were included in the assessment from the three purposively sampled districts – one from each of the three regions of Punjab. Tools were developed to collect data from record review, observations, and in-depth interviews. Six building blocks framework proposed by the World Health Organization was used for data collection and analyses. Results: In general physical infrastructure, especially the buildings were found to be reasonably constructed at most of the healthcare facilities. However, the maintenance was not regular. The vacancies for general doctors, specialist doctors, nurses, and paramedics were 26%, 38%, 31% and 12% respectively. Supply of drugs was irregular and inadequate. A large proportion (45% of ‘user charges’ were spent on purchase of drugs and other consumables. Most registers were found to be updated, and reports were transmitted to higher levels usually on time. However, institutionalized system of monitoring and supervision was lacking. Govt. hospitals were providing in-patient care to about 35.5% of those who were estimated to need hospitalization. State had allocated about Rs. 1200 crores to health (0.46% of GDP, thus, spending only Rs. 433 per capita per year. Conclusions: Despite constraints, the government health service is catering to the needs of a large section of the population. Rapid health system assessment at periodic intervals using a mixed method approach can supplement routine monitoring of the health system.

  4. Myths and misconceptions about cervical cancer among Zambian women: rapid assessment by peer educators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirwa, Susan; Mwanahamuntu, Mulindi; Kapambwe, Sharon; Mkumba, Gracilia; Stringer, Jeff; Sahasrabuddhe, Vikrant; Pfaendler, Krista

    2014-01-01

    Objective To make a rapid assessment of the common myths and misconceptions surrounding the causes of cervical cancer and lack of screening among unscreened low-income Zambian women. Methods We initiated a door-to-door community-based initiative, led by peer educators, to inform unscreened women about the existence of a new see-and-treat cervical cancer prevention program. During home visits peer educators posed the following two questions to women: 1. What do you think causes cervical cancer? 2. Why haven’t you been screened for cervical cancer? The most frequent types of responses gathered in this exercise were analyzed thematically. Results Peer educators contacted over 1100 unscreened women over a period of two months. Their median age was 33 years, a large majority (58%) were not educated beyond primary school, over two-thirds (71%) did not have monthly incomes over 500,000 Zambian Kwacha (US$100) per month, and just over half (51%) were married and cohabiting with their spouses. Approximately 75% of the women engaged in discussions had heard of cervical cancer and had heard of the new cervical cancer prevention program in the local clinic. The responses of unscreened low-income Zambian women to questions posed by peer educators in urban Lusaka reflect the variety of prevalent ‘folk’ myths and misconceptions surrounding cervical cancer and its prevention methods. Conclusion The information in our rapid assessment can serve as a basis for developing future educational and intervention campaigns for improving uptake of cervical cancer prevention services in Zambia. It also speaks to the necessity of ensuring that programs addressing women’s reproductive health take into account societal inputs at the time they are being developed and implemented. Taking a community-based participatory approach to program development and implementation will help ensure sustainability and impact. PMID:20595342

  5. Imaging Spectroscopy Techniques for Rapid Assessment of Geologic and Cryospheric Science Data from future Satellite Sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, W. M.; Hill, R.

    2016-12-01

    Several efforts are currently underway to develop and launch the next generation of imaging spectrometer systems on satellite platforms for a wide range of Earth Observation goals. Systems that include the reflected solar wavelength range up to 2.5 μm will be capable of detailed mapping of the composition of the Earth's surface. Sensors under development include EnMAP, HISUI, PRISMA, HERO, and HyspIRI. These systems are expected to be able to provide global data for insights and constraints on fundamental geological processes, natural and anthropogenic hazards, water, energy and mineral resource assessments. Coupled with the development of these sensors is the challenge of bringing a multi-channel user community (from Landsat, MODIS, and ASTER) into the rich science return available from imaging spectrometer systems. Most data end users will never be spectroscopy experts so that making the derived science products accessible to a wide user community is imperative. Simple band parameterizations have been developed for the CRISM instrument at Mars, including mafic and alteration minerals, frost and volatile ice indices. These products enhance and augment the use of that data set by broader group of scientists. Summary products for terrestrial geologic and water resource applications would help build a wider user base for future satellite systems, and rapidly key spectral experts to important regions for detailed spectral mapping. Summary products take advantage of imaging spectroscopy's narrow spectral channels with band depth calculations in addition to band ratios that are commonly used by multi-channel systems (e.g. NDVI, NDWI, NDSI). We are testing summary products for Earth geologic and snow scenes over California using AVIRIS data at 18m/pixel. This has resulted in several algorithms for rapid mineral discrimination and mapping and data collects over the melting Sierra snowpack in spring 2016 are expected to generate algorithms for snow grain size and surface

  6. Rapid assessment of malaria transmission using age-specific sero-conversion rates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laveta Stewart

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Malaria transmission intensity is a crucial determinant of malarial disease burden and its measurement can help to define health priorities. Rapid, local estimates of transmission are required to focus resources better but current entomological and parasitological methods for estimating transmission intensity are limited in this respect. An alternative is determination of antimalarial antibody age-specific sero-prevalence to estimate sero-conversion rates (SCR, which have been shown to correlate with transmission intensity. This study evaluated SCR generated from samples collected from health facility attendees as a tool for a rapid assessment of malaria transmission intensity.The study was conducted in north east Tanzania. Antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum merozoite antigens MSP-1(19 and AMA-1 were measured by indirect ELISA. Age-specific antibody prevalence was analysed using a catalytic conversion model based on maximum likelihood to generate SCR. A pilot study, conducted near Moshi, found SCRs for AMA-1 were highly comparable between samples collected from individuals in a conventional cross-sectional survey and those collected from attendees at a local health facility. For the main study, 3885 individuals attending village health facilities in Korogwe and Same districts were recruited. Both malaria parasite prevalence and sero-positivity were higher in Korogwe than in Same. MSP-1(19 and AMA-1 SCR rates for Korogwe villages ranged from 0.03 to 0.06 and 0.07 to 0.21 respectively. In Same district there was evidence of a recent reduction in transmission, with SCR among those born since 1998 [MSP-1(19 0.002 to 0.008 and AMA-1 0.005 to 0.014 ] being 5 to 10 fold lower than among individuals born prior to 1998 [MSP-1(19 0.02 to 0.04 and AMA-1 0.04 to 0.13]. Current health facility specific estimates of SCR showed good correlations with malaria incidence rates in infants in a contemporaneous clinical trial (MSP-1(19 r(2 = 0.78, p<0.01 & AMA-1 r

  7. Rapid forest carbon assessments of oceanic islands: a case study of the Hawaiian archipelago

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory P. Asner

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Spatially explicit forest carbon (C monitoring aids conservation and climate change mitigation efforts, yet few approaches have been developed specifically for the highly heterogeneous landscapes of oceanic island chains that continue to undergo rapid and extensive forest C change. We developed an approach for rapid mapping of aboveground C density (ACD; units = Mg or metric tons C ha−1 on islands at a spatial resolution of 30 m (0.09 ha using a combination of cost-effective airborne LiDAR data and full-coverage satellite data. We used the approach to map forest ACD across the main Hawaiian Islands, comparing C stocks within and among islands, in protected and unprotected areas, and among forests dominated by native and invasive species. Results Total forest aboveground C stock of the Hawaiian Islands was 36 Tg, and ACD distributions were extremely heterogeneous both within and across islands. Remotely sensed ACD was validated against U.S. Forest Service FIA plot inventory data (R2 = 0.67; RMSE = 30.4 Mg C ha−1. Geospatial analyses indicated the critical importance of forest type and canopy cover as predictors of mapped ACD patterns. Protection status was a strong determinant of forest C stock and density, but we found complex environmentally mediated responses of forest ACD to alien plant invasion. Conclusions A combination of one-time airborne LiDAR data acquisition and satellite monitoring provides effective forest C mapping in the highly heterogeneous landscapes of the Hawaiian Islands. Our statistical approach yielded key insights into the drivers of ACD variation, and also makes possible future assessments of C storage change, derived on a repeat basis from free satellite data, without the need for additional LiDAR data. Changes in C stocks and densities of oceanic islands can thus be continually assessed in the face of rapid environmental changes such as biological invasions, drought, fire and land use

  8. Rapid forest carbon assessments of oceanic islands: a case study of the Hawaiian archipelago.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asner, Gregory P; Sousan, Sinan; Knapp, David E; Selmants, Paul C; Martin, Roberta E; Hughes, R Flint; Giardina, Christian P

    2016-12-01

    Spatially explicit forest carbon (C) monitoring aids conservation and climate change mitigation efforts, yet few approaches have been developed specifically for the highly heterogeneous landscapes of oceanic island chains that continue to undergo rapid and extensive forest C change. We developed an approach for rapid mapping of aboveground C density (ACD; units = Mg or metric tons C ha-1) on islands at a spatial resolution of 30 m (0.09 ha) using a combination of cost-effective airborne LiDAR data and full-coverage satellite data. We used the approach to map forest ACD across the main Hawaiian Islands, comparing C stocks within and among islands, in protected and unprotected areas, and among forests dominated by native and invasive species. Total forest aboveground C stock of the Hawaiian Islands was 36 Tg, and ACD distributions were extremely heterogeneous both within and across islands. Remotely sensed ACD was validated against U.S. Forest Service FIA plot inventory data (R2 = 0.67; RMSE = 30.4 Mg C ha-1). Geospatial analyses indicated the critical importance of forest type and canopy cover as predictors of mapped ACD patterns. Protection status was a strong determinant of forest C stock and density, but we found complex environmentally mediated responses of forest ACD to alien plant invasion. A combination of one-time airborne LiDAR data acquisition and satellite monitoring provides effective forest C mapping in the highly heterogeneous landscapes of the Hawaiian Islands. Our statistical approach yielded key insights into the drivers of ACD variation, and also makes possible future assessments of C storage change, derived on a repeat basis from free satellite data, without the need for additional LiDAR data. Changes in C stocks and densities of oceanic islands can thus be continually assessed in the face of rapid environmental changes such as biological invasions, drought, fire and land use. Such forest monitoring information can be used to promote

  9. Short-term residential load forecasting: Impact of calendar effects and forecast granularity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lusis, Peter; Khalilpour, Kaveh Rajab; Andrew, Lachlan

    2017-01-01

    Literature is rich in methodologies for “aggregated” load forecasting which has helped electricity network operators and retailers in optimal planning and scheduling. The recent increase in the uptake of distributed generation and storage systems has generated new demand for “disaggregated” load...... forecasting for a single-customer or even down at an appliance level. Access to high resolution data from smart meters has enabled the research community to assess conventional load forecasting techniques and develop new forecasting strategies suitable for demand-side disaggregated loads. This paper studies...... how calendar effects, forecasting granularity and the length of the training set affect the accuracy of a day-ahead load forecast for residential customers. Root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized RMSE were used as forecast error metrics. Regression trees, neural networks, and support vector...

  10. Communicating uncertainty in hydrological forecasts: mission impossible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Maria-Helena; Mathevet, Thibault; Thielen, Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian

    2010-05-01

    Cascading uncertainty in meteo-hydrological modelling chains for forecasting and integrated flood risk assessment is an essential step to improve the quality of hydrological forecasts. Although the best methodology to quantify the total predictive uncertainty in hydrology is still debated, there is a common agreement that one must avoid uncertainty misrepresentation and miscommunication, as well as misinterpretation of information by users. Several recent studies point out that uncertainty, when properly explained and defined, is no longer unwelcome among emergence response organizations, users of flood risk information and the general public. However, efficient communication of uncertain hydro-meteorological forecasts is far from being a resolved issue. This study focuses on the interpretation and communication of uncertain hydrological forecasts based on (uncertain) meteorological forecasts and (uncertain) rainfall-runoff modelling approaches to decision-makers such as operational hydrologists and water managers in charge of flood warning and scenario-based reservoir operation. An overview of the typical flow of uncertainties and risk-based decisions in hydrological forecasting systems is presented. The challenges related to the extraction of meaningful information from probabilistic forecasts and the test of its usefulness in assisting operational flood forecasting are illustrated with the help of two case-studies: 1) a study on the use and communication of probabilistic flood forecasting within the European Flood Alert System; 2) a case-study on the use of probabilistic forecasts by operational forecasters from the hydroelectricity company EDF in France. These examples show that attention must be paid to initiatives that promote or reinforce the active participation of expert forecasters in the forecasting chain. The practice of face-to-face forecast briefings, focusing on sharing how forecasters interpret, describe and perceive the model output forecasted

  11. Assessing the vulnerability of economic sectors to climate variability to improve the usability of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts in Europe - a preliminary concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Daniel

    2015-04-01

    Climate variability poses major challenges for decision-makers in climate-sensitive sectors. Seasonal to decadal (S2D) forecasts provide potential value for management decisions especially in the context of climate change where information from present or past climatology loses significance. However, usable and decision-relevant tailored climate forecasts are still sparse for Europe and successful examples of application require elaborate and individual producer-user interaction. The assessment of sector-specific vulnerabilities to critical climate conditions at specific temporal scale will be a great step forward to increase the usability and efficiency of climate forecasts. A concept for a sector-specific vulnerability assessment (VA) to climate variability is presented. The focus of this VA is on the provision of usable vulnerability information which can be directly incorporated in decision-making processes. This is done by developing sector-specific climate-impact-decision-pathways and the identification of their specific time frames using data from both bottom-up and top-down approaches. The structure of common VA's for climate change related issues is adopted which envisages the determination of exposure, sensitivity and coping capacity. However, the application of the common vulnerability components within the context of climate service application poses some fundamental considerations: Exposure - the effect of climate events on the system of concern may be modified and delayed due to interconnected systems (e.g. catchment). The critical time-frame of a climate event or event sequence is dependent on system-internal thresholds and initial conditions. But also on decision-making processes which require specific lead times of climate information to initiate respective coping measures. Sensitivity - in organizational systems climate may pose only one of many factors relevant for decision making. The scope of "sensitivity" in this concept comprises both the

  12. Rapid psychological assessment of depression and its relationship with physical health among urban elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavithra Cheluvaraj

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Background Old age is associated with increased occurrence of a wide array of Psychological impairments or losses, which might contribute to physical disabilities. As Depression has been identified as the most common aberration its rapid assessment would be able to identify the quality of individual and family life of the elderly. Aims To assess psychological health status with respect to depression among geriatric urban community, and the relationship of depression with health perception and physical health status has been explored. Methods A cross-sectional total geriatric population survey consisting of 254 elderly has been carried out at urban field practice area. A standard geriatric depression scale (Short form has been utilized to assess psychological status. Detailed physical examination and investigations with special reference to Diabetes, Hypertension and Visual defects was carried out. Data was analyzed to find out the relationship of various socio-demographic factors, physical morbidities with depression. Results Out of 254 elderly examined, 32 per cent females and 23 per cent males were found to be suffering from depressive disorders. When assessed for individual health status perception, 25 per cent felt to have good health. Out of 190 geriatric subjects perceiving fair to bad health, 110 were found to be suffering from depression (p<0.001. Depression was also found to be associated with history of hospital admission in the previous year (p<0.05, low vision (p<0.05, diabetes (p<0.01 and hypertension (p<0.01. Conclusion Depression among geriatric age group is associated with physical illness and perception of health.

  13. Rapid assessment of cataract blindness in an urban district of Gujarat

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    Limburg Hans

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To estimate the prevalence of bilateral cataract blindness in persons ≥50 years of age in Ahmedabad district, Gujarat. Methods: A total of 1,962 persons ≥50 years of age were examined in clusters of 45 people or less. The survey design used a systematic random cluster sampling. The sample size was calculated assuming a prevalence of bilateral cataract blindness (visual acuity <3/60 of at least 3% and design effect of 1.6, to estimate the actual prevalence of cataract blindness with a sampling error of ≤20 at 80% confidence level. Visual acuity was assessed with glasses, where available, and pinhole was used for visual acuity <6/18. Distant direct ophthalmoscopy in semidark condition with undilated pupil was used to assess the lens status. Results: The age-gender-adjusted prevalence of all blindness was 2.9% in persons ≥50 years of age (6.7% for visual acuity<6/60. The age-gender-adjusted prevalence of bilateral cataract blindness ( visual acuity <3/60 was 1.2% in persons ≥50 years of age. For visual acuity <6/60, the prevalence was 3.1%. The prevalence in females was slightly higher than in males. The prevalence of bilateral and unilateral aphakia and pseudophakia was high. The cataract surgical coverage, an indicator for coverage and service utilization, was 92.9% for persons and 83.1% for eyes. Conclusion: Rapid assessment of cataract blindness in persons ≥50 years of age can be conducted in urban settings with existing resources and at affodable costs, to provide district level data for assessment and monitoring of cataract intervention programs.

  14. Managing Product Returns: The Role of Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Toktay; E.A. van der Laan (Erwin); M.P. de Brito (Marisa)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractIn this article, we discuss ways of actively influencing product returns and we review data-driven methods for forecasting return flows that exploit the fact that future returns are a function of past sales. In particular we assess the value of return forecasting at an operational level,

  15. Data Assimilation and Air Quality Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eskes, H.; Timmermans, R.; Curier, L.; Ruyter de Wildt, M. de; Segers, A.; Sauter, F.; Schaap, M.

    2014-01-01

    Lotos-Euros is a chemistry transportmodel developed in the Netherlands, and is used for air quality assessments and forecasts. Operational air quality forecasts for the Netherlands concerning ozone and PM10 are made available on the RIVM webpage (http://www.lml.rivm.nl/verw.html) and are used to

  16. Rapid assessment of quality of deer antler slices by using an electronic nose coupled with chemometric analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guojie Xu

    Full Text Available Deer antler is a precious animal-sourced traditional Chinese medicine. We aimed to rapidly assess the quality of deer antler slices by electronic nose so that we can ensure medical safety. In this study, response intensity of the electronic nose was favorably optimized, and samples were well assessed by using an electronic nose based on LDA model. The results obtained herein suggested that electronic nose could be an effective method to rapidly assess the quality of deer antler slices, and could also be an important tool for categorization of complex aroma mixtures for the control of quality of drugs or food.

  17. Rapid Assessment of Earthquakes with Radar and Optical Geodetic Imaging and Finite Fault Models (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fielding, E. J.; Sladen, A.; Simons, M.; Rosen, P. A.; Yun, S.; Li, Z.; Avouac, J.; Leprince, S.

    2010-12-01

    Earthquake responders need to know where the earthquake has caused damage and what is the likely intensity of damage. The earliest information comes from global and regional seismic networks, which provide the magnitude and locations of the main earthquake hypocenter and moment tensor centroid and also the locations of aftershocks. Location accuracy depends on the availability of seismic data close to the earthquake source. Finite fault models of the earthquake slip can be derived from analysis of seismic waveforms alone, but the results can have large errors in the location of the fault ruptures and spatial distribution of slip, which are critical for estimating the distribution of shaking and damage. Geodetic measurements of ground displacements with GPS, LiDAR, or radar and optical imagery provide key spatial constraints on the location of the fault ruptures and distribution of slip. Here we describe the analysis of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and sub-pixel correlation (or pixel offset tracking) of radar and optical imagery to measure ground coseismic displacements for recent large earthquakes, and lessons learned for rapid assessment of future events. These geodetic imaging techniques have been applied to the 2010 Leogane, Haiti; 2010 Maule, Chile; 2010 Baja California, Mexico; 2008 Wenchuan, China; 2007 Tocopilla, Chile; 2007 Pisco, Peru; 2005 Kashmir; and 2003 Bam, Iran earthquakes, using data from ESA Envisat ASAR, JAXA ALOS PALSAR, NASA Terra ASTER and CNES SPOT5 satellite instruments and the NASA/JPL UAVSAR airborne system. For these events, the geodetic data provided unique information on the location of the fault or faults that ruptured and the distribution of slip that was not available from the seismic data and allowed the creation of accurate finite fault source models. In many of these cases, the fault ruptures were on previously unknown faults or faults not believed to be at high risk of earthquakes, so the area and degree of

  18. An assessment of various blood collection and transfer methods used for malaria rapid diagnostic tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baik Fred

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Four blood collection and transfer devices commonly used for malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs were assessed for their consistency, accuracy and ease of use in the hands of laboratory technicians and village health workers. Methods Laboratory technicians and village health workers collected blood from a finger prick using each device in random order, and deposited the blood either on filter paper or into a suitable casette-type RDT. Consistency and accuracy of volume delivered was determined by comparing the measurements of the resulting blood spots/heights with the measurements of laboratory-prepared pipetted standard volumes. The effect of varying blood volumes on RDT sensitivity and ease of use was also observed. Results There was high variability in blood volume collected by the devices, with the straw and the loop, the most preferred devices, usually transferring volumes greater than intended, while the glass capillary tube and the plastic pipette transferring less volume than intended or none at all. Varying the blood volume delivered to RDTs indicated that this variation is critical to RDT sensitivity only when the transferred volume is very low. Conclusion None of the blood transfer devices assessed performed consistently well. Adequate training on their use is clearly necessary, with more development efforts for improved designs to be used by remote health workers, in mind.

  19. Warm-ups for military fitness testing: rapid evidence assessment of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeno, Stacey A; Purvis, Dianna; Crawford, Cindy; Lee, Courtney; Lisman, Peter; Deuster, Patricia A

    2013-07-01

    Warm-up exercises are commonly used before exercise as a method to physiologically prepare for strenuous physical activity. Various warm-up exercises are often implemented but without scientific merit and, at times, may be detrimental to performance. To date, no systematic reviews have examined the effectiveness of warm-up exercises for military physical fitness test (PFT) or combat fitness test (CFT). The purpose of this rapid evidence assessment of the literature was to examine the quantity, quality, and effectiveness of warm-up exercises for PFT and identify those that might increase PFT and/or CFT scores, as reported in the literature. Literature searches of randomized controlled trials were performed across various databases from database inception to May 2011. Methodological quality of included studies was assessed using the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) 50 criteria for randomized controlled trial designs, and studies were individually described. Subject matter experts summarized the results applicable or generalizable to military testing. The search yielded a total of 1177 citations, with 37 fitting our inclusion criteria. Cardiovascular warm-ups increased sprint/running time, but dynamic stretching and dynamic warm-ups had the most positive outcome for the various exercise tests examined. Systematically, static stretching had no beneficial or detrimental effect on exercise performance but did improve range of movement exercises. Selected warm-up exercise may increase PFT and possibly CFT scores. Further research is needed to investigate the efficacy of dynamic stretching and dynamic warm-ups.

  20. Periodontal and dental effects of surgically assisted rapid maxillary expansion, assessed by using digital study models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danilo Furquim Siqueira

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The present study assessed the maxillary dental arch changes produced by surgically assisted rapid maxillary expansion (SARME. METHODS: Dental casts from 18 patients (mean age of 23.3 years were obtained at treatment onset (T1, three months after SARME (T2 and 6 months after expansion (T3. The casts were scanned in a 3D scanner (D-250, 3Shape, Copenhagen, Denmark. Maxillary dental arch width, dental crown tipping and height were measured and assessed by ANOVA and Tukey's test. RESULTS: Increased transversal widths from T1 and T2 and the maintenance of these values from T2 and T3 were observed. Buccal teeth tipping also showed statistically significant differences, with an increase in all teeth from T1 to T2 and a decrease from T2 to T3. No statistically significant difference was found for dental crown height, except for left first and second molars, although clinically irrelevant. CONCLUSION: SARME proved to be an effective and stable procedure, with minimum periodontal hazards.

  1. Acute Kidney Injury Risk Assessment and the Nephrology Rapid Response Team.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizo-Topete, Lilia Maria; Rosner, Mitchell H; Ronco, Claudio

    2017-01-01

    Acute kidney Injury (AKI) is a serious medical condition affecting more than 10 million people around the world annually and resulting in poor outcomes. It has been suggested that late recognition of the syndrome may lead to delayed interventions with increased morbidity and mortality. Early diagnosis and timely therapeutic strategies may be the cornerstone of future improvement in outcomes. The purpose of this article is to provide a practical model to identify patients at high risk for AKI in different environments, with the goal to prevent AKI. We describe the AKI Risk Assessment (ARA) as a proposed algorithm that systematically evaluates the patient in high-risk situations of AKI in a simple way no matter where the patient is located, and allows different medical specialists to approach patients as a team with a nephrologist to improve outcomes. The goal of the nephrology rapid response team (NRRT) is to prevent AKI or start treatment if AKI is already diagnosed as a consequence of progressive events that can lead to progressive deterioration of kidney tissues and eventual decline in renal function and to ensure appropriate follow-up of patients at risk for progressive chronic kidney disease after the episode of AKI. Prevention is the key to avoid mortality and morbidity associated with AKI. Integration of these assessment tools in a global methodology that includes a multi-disciplinary team (NRRT) is critical to success. Video Journal Club 'Cappuccino with Claudio Ronco' at http://www.karger.com/?doi=452402. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  2. Earthquake Magnitude and Shaking Intensity Dependent Fragility Functions for Rapid Risk Assessment of Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie-José Nollet

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available An integrated web application, referred to as ER2 for rapid risk evaluator, is under development for a user-friendly seismic risk assessment by the non-expert public safety community. The assessment of likely negative consequences is based on pre-populated databases of seismic, building inventory and vulnerability parameters. To further accelerate the computation for near real-time analyses, implicit building fragility curves were developed as functions of the magnitude and the intensity of the seismic shaking defined with a single intensity measure, input spectral acceleration at 1.0 s implicitly considering the epicentral distance and local soil conditions. Damage probabilities were compared with those obtained with the standard fragility functions explicitly considering epicentral distances and local site classes in addition to the earthquake magnitudes and respective intensity of the seismic shaking. Different seismic scenarios were considered first for 53 building classes common in Eastern Canada, and then a reduced number of 24 combined building classes was proposed. Comparison of results indicate that the damage predictions with implicit fragility functions for short (M ≤ 5.5 and medium strong motion duration (5.5 < M ≤ 7.5 show low variation with distance and soil class, with average error of less than 3.6%.

  3. A Rapid Physical Habitat Assessment of Wadeable Streams for Mixed-Land-Use Watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lynne Hooper

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Mitigating stream and river impairment is complex, particularly in mixed-land-use watersheds given the likelihood of integrated responses of stream restoration to coupled and ongoing terrestrial ecosystem disturbance and the need for periodic reassessment and maintenance. Traditional biological sampling (e.g., macroinvertebrate sampling or other biological indices alone seldom identifies the cause of biological community impairment and large fiscal investments are often made with no apparent improvement to aquatic ecosystem health. A stream physical habitat assessment (PHA can yield information that, when paired with land-use data may reveal causal patterns in aquatic physical habitat degradation and help to identify sites for rehabilitation or restoration. A rapid and customizable physical habitat assessment method (rPHA is presented that reduces commonly high PHA time and labor costs while facilitating informative value. Sampling time is reduced to approximately 30–40 min per survey site with a crew of three individuals. The method is flexible and thus adaptable to varied applications and needs. The rPHA design facilitates replication at regular spatial and temporal intervals thereby informing land-use managers and agencies of current conditions and trends in habitat response to natural and anthropogenic stressors. The rPHA outcomes can thus provide science-based supplemental information to better inform management practices and stream restoration decisions in contemporary mixed-land-use watersheds.

  4. A Framework for Rapid Impact Assessment with special reference to wildfires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isak D. Jansen Van Vuuren

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Geographical Information Systems (GIS technology is a powerful tool that can support decision-making in all the facets of disaster risk management. Being at the centre of all disaster risk management functions, GIS activities such as data acquisition, processing, analysis and visualisation should be seamless from planning to prediction, preparation, response and recovery. A case study of devastating wildfires that destroyed thousands of hectares of agricultural land during August 2011 in the North-West province, South Africa, identifies the lack of a comprehensive framework within which information-based disaster impact assessments are undertaken and which is integrated with the larger context of disaster risk management. Problems relating to the availability, quality and integration of data are typical of the ad hoc approach to the implementation of information technologies, indicating the need for an integrated and coordinated approach. The aim of this paper is to establish a framework for rapid impact assessment, with specific reference to geospatial data management. The framework is put into the theoretical context of disaster risk management and information management, with data acquisition and processing functions being anchored in the principles of information systems theory.

  5. Rapid full-field OCT assessment of clinical tissue specimens (Conference Presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalimier, Eugénie; Harms, Fabrice; Brossollet, Charles; Benoit, Emilie; Martins, Franck; Boccara, Claude A.

    2016-03-01

    FFOCT (Full Field Optical Coherence Tomography) is a novel optical technology that gives access to very high resolution tomography images of biological tissues within minutes, non-invasively. This makes it an attractive tool to bridge the gap between medical imaging modalities (MRI, ultrasound, CT) used for cancer lesion identification or targeting and histological diagnosis. Clinical tissue specimens, such as surgical cancer margins or biopsies, can potentially be assessed rapidly, by the clinician, in the aim to help him decide on the course of action. A fast FFOCT prototype was built, that provides 1cm2 images with 1 µm resolution in 1 minute, and can accommodate samples up to 50mm diameter. Specific work was carried out to implement a large sample holder, high-speed image acquisition system, optimized scanning, and accelerated GPU tiles stitching. Results obtained on breast, urology, and digestive tissues show the efficiency of the technique for the detection of cancer on clinical tissue specimens, and reinforce the clinical relevance of the technique. The technical and clinical results show that the fast FFOCT system can successfully be used for a fast assessment of cancer excision margins or biopsies providing a very valuable tool in the clinical environment.

  6. Confessions of an International Forecaster

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas M. Fullerton Jr

    2004-01-01

    Impacts of the availability of low cost computing power on macroeconometric forecasting and research in Latin America are widespread. One of the most immediate effects of the adoption of microcomputing hardware was more rapid adoption of new econometric estimation techniques. Easier development and maintenace of large-scale modeling systems for individual economies also became feasible. Greater flexibility in analyzing major policy innovations such as the Brady initiative for international de...

  7. Using rapid assessment and response to operationalise physical activity strategic health communication campaigns in Tonga.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turk, Tahir; Latu, Netina; Cocker-Palu, Elizabeth; Liavaa, Villiami; Vivili, Paul; Gloede, Sara; Simons, Allison

    2013-04-01

    The aim of the present study was to identify stakeholder and program beneficiary needs and wants in relation to a netball communication strategy in Tonga. In addition, the study aimed to more clearly identify audience segments for targeting of communication campaigns and to identify any barriers or benefits to engaging in the physical activity program. A rapid assessment and response (RAR) methodology was used. The elicitation research encompassed qualitative fieldwork approaches, including semistructured interviews with key informants and focus group discussions with program beneficiaries. Desk research of secondary data sources supported in-field findings. A number of potential barriers to behavioural compliance existed, including cultural factors, gender discrimination, socioeconomic factors, stigmatising attitudes, the threat of domestic violence, infrastructure and training issues. Factors contributing to participation in physical activity included the fun and social aspects of the sport, incentives (including career opportunities, highlighting the health benefits of the activity and the provision of religious and cultural sanctions by local leaders towards the increased physical activity of women. The consultative approach of RAR provided a more in-depth understanding of the need for greater levels of physical activity and opportunities for engagement by all stakeholders. The approach facilitated opportunities for the proposed health behaviours to be realised through the communication strategy. Essential insights for the strategy design were identified from key informants, as well as ensuring future engagement of these stakeholders into the strategy. So what? The expanded use of RAR to inform the design of social marketing interventions is a practical approach to data collection for non-communicable diseases and other health issues in developing countries. The approach allows for the rapid mobilisation of scarce resources for the implementation of more

  8. A regional human services authority's rapid needs assessment of evacuees following natural disasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, David E; Kasofsky, Jan M; Hunte, Christopher N; Diaz, James H

    2008-01-01

    The Atlantic hurricane season of 2005 was not an ordinary season, and Hurricane Katrina was not an ordinary hurricane. Hurricane Katrina damaged more than 93,000 square miles of Gulf of Mexico coastline, displaced more than 1 million residents from New Orleans, and flooded more than 80 percent of New Orleans for weeks, which killed more than 1,300 people, mostly New Orleanians. Inland regional state and local healthcare and human services agencies rushed to assist evacuees, most of whom were uninsured or displaced without employer healthcare coverage. The initial evacuation brought more than 350,000 evacuees seeking shelter to the greater Baton Rouge area, LA, 80 miles north of New Orleans, the closest high ground. This investigation describes the rapid needs assessment developed and conducted by the Capital Area Human Services District of the greater Baton Rouge area, a quasi-governmental human services authority, the regional provider of state-funded mental health, addictive disorders, and developmental disabilities services, on a sample of 6,553 Katrina evacuees in the greater Baton Rouge area. In the event of catastrophic natural and manmade disasters, state and federal decision makers should follow the National Incident Management System and support local designated lead agencies with additional resources as requested. They must rely on designated lead agencies to use their knowledge of the locale, local resources, and relationships with other providers and volunteers to respond rapidly and efficiently to evacuee needs identified through a designated, concise tool that is singularly utilized across the impacted region by all providers to determine the needed response.

  9. Rapid assessment of insect fauna based on local knowledge: comparing ecological and ethnobiological methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Daniele Cristina de Oliveira; Ramos, Marcelo Alves; da Silva, Henrique Costa Hermenegildo; Alves, Angelo Giuseppe Chaves

    2016-03-01

    The rapid assessment of biodiversity making use of surveys of local knowledge has been successful for different biological taxa. However, there are no reports on the testing of such tools for sampling insect fauna. The present study aimed to evaluate the efficiency of different ethnobiological techniques for rapid sampling of insect fauna. Field research for the conventional survey of insect fauna was conducted on a private farm (9 ° 43'38.95 "S, 37 ° 45'11.97" W) , where there was intensive cultivation of okra (Abelmoschus esculentus L. (Moench)). The survey of local entomological knowledge was conducted among all the producers of okra living in the rural villages Pereira, Santa Luzia, and Nassau de Souza, within the Jacaré Curituba irrigated settlement scheme. The combined use of the techniques "free list" and projective interviews was analyzed, using two types of visual stimuli: stock photos and an entomological box. During the conventional survey of insect fauna, the species Bemisia tabaci biotype B, Aphis gossypii, Phenacoccus sp., Icerya purchasi and Lagria villosa were the primary pests found in the okra crop. Regarding the survey of insect pests, the results were convergent  in both techniques (conventional sampling and free list). Comparing the interview with visual stimuli (pictures) and specimen witnesses (entomological box) revealed that the latter was more effective. Techniques based on the recording and analysis of local knowledge about insects are effective for quick sampling of pest insects, but ineffective in sampling predator insects. The utilization of collected insects, infested branches, or photos of the symptoms of damage caused by pests in projective interviews is recommended.

  10. A rapid, noninvasive immunoassay for frataxin: utility in assessment of Friedreich ataxia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deutsch, Eric C; Santani, Avni B; Perlman, Susan L; Farmer, Jennifer M; Stolle, Catherine A; Marusich, Michael F; Lynch, David R

    2010-01-01

    Friedreich ataxia (FRDA) is an autosomal recessive neurodegenerative disorder caused by reduced amounts of the mitochondrial protein frataxin. Frataxin levels in research studies are typically measured via Western blot analysis from patient fibroblasts, lymphocytes, or muscle biopsies; none of these is ideal for rapid detection in large scale clinical studies. Recently, a rapid, noninvasive lateral flow immunoassay was developed to accurately measure picogram levels of frataxin protein and shown to distinguish lymphoblastoid cells from FRDA carriers, patients and controls. We expanded the immunoassay to measure frataxin directly in buccal cells and whole blood from a large cohort of controls, known carriers and patients typical of a clinical trial population. The assay in buccal cells shared a similar degree of variability with previous studies conducted in lymphoblastoid cells (~10% coefficient of variation in controls). Significant differences in frataxin protein quantity were seen between the mean group values of controls, carriers, and patient buccal cells (100, 50.2, and 20.9% of control, respectively) and in protein extracted from whole blood (100, 75.3, and 32.2%, respectively), although there was some overlap between the groups. In addition, frataxin levels were inversely related to GAA repeat length and correlated directly with age of onset. Subjects with one expanded GAA repeat and an identified frataxin point mutation also carried frataxin levels in the disease range. Some patients displaying an FRDA phenotype but carrying only a single identifiable mutation had frataxin levels in the FRDA patient range. One patient from this group has a novel deletion that included exons 2 and 3 of the FXN gene based on multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) analysis of the FXN gene. The lateral flow immunoassay may be a useful means to noninvasively assess frataxin levels repetitively with minimal discomfort in FRDA patients in specific situations such

  11. The Solar Reflectance Index as a Tool to Forecast the Heat Released to the Urban Environment: Potentiality and Assessment Issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Muscio

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Overheating of buildings and urban areas is a more and more severe issue in view of global warming combined with increasing urbanization. The thermal behavior of urban surfaces in the hot seasons is the result of a complex balance of construction and environmental parameters such as insulation level, thermal mass, shielding, and solar reflective capability on one side, and ambient conditions on the other side. Regulations makers and the construction industry have favored the use of parameters that allow the forecasting of the interaction between different material properties without the need for complex analyses. Among these, the solar reflectance index (SRI takes into account solar reflectance and thermal emittance to predict the thermal behavior of a surface subjected to solar radiation through a physically rigorous mathematical procedure that considers assigned air and sky temperatures, peak solar irradiance, and wind velocity. The correlation of SRI with the heat released to the urban environment is analyzed in this paper, as well as the sensitivity of its calculation procedure to variation of the input parameters, as possibly induced by the measurement methods used or by the material ageing.

  12. A new Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer channel selection and assessment of its impact on Met Office NWP forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, Young-Chan; Sohn, Byung-Ju; Kim, Yoonjae; Joo, Sangwon; Bell, William; Saunders, Roger

    2017-11-01

    A new set of Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) channels was re-selected from 314 EUMETSAT channels. In selecting channels, we calculated the impact of the individually added channel on the improvement in the analysis outputs from a one-dimensional variational analysis (1D-Var) for the Unified Model (UM) data assimilation system at the Met Office, using the channel score index (CSI) as a figure of merit. Then, 200 channels were selected in order by counting each individual channel's CSI contribution. Compared with the operationally used 183 channels for the UM at the Met Office, the new set shares 149 channels, while the other 51 channels are new. Also examined is the selection from the entropy reduction method with the same 1D-Var approach. Results suggest that channel selection can be made in a more objective fashion using the proposed CSI method. This is because the most important channels can be selected across the whole IASI observation spectrum. In the experimental trial runs using the UM global assimilation system, the new channels had an overall neutral impact in terms of improvement in forecasts, as compared with results from the operational channels. However, upper-tropospheric moist biases shown in the control run with operational channels were significantly reduced in the experimental trial with the newly selected channels. The reduction of moist biases was mainly due to the additional water vapor channels, which are sensitive to the upper-tropospheric water vapor.

  13. Rapid assessment of infrastructure of primary health care facilities - a relevant instrument for health care systems management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholz, Stefan; Ngoli, Baltazar; Flessa, Steffen

    2015-05-01

    Health care infrastructure constitutes a major component of the structural quality of a health system. Infrastructural deficiencies of health services are reported in literature and research. A number of instruments exist for the assessment of infrastructure. However, no easy-to-use instruments to assess health facility infrastructure in developing countries are available. Present tools are not applicable for a rapid assessment by health facility staff. Therefore, health information systems lack data on facility infrastructure. A rapid assessment tool for the infrastructure of primary health care facilities was developed by the authors and pilot-tested in Tanzania. The tool measures the quality of all infrastructural components comprehensively and with high standardization. Ratings use a 2-1-0 scheme which is frequently used in Tanzanian health care services. Infrastructural indicators and indices are obtained from the assessment and serve for reporting and tracing of interventions. The tool was pilot-tested in Tanga Region (Tanzania). The pilot test covered seven primary care facilities in the range between dispensary and district hospital. The assessment encompassed the facilities as entities as well as 42 facility buildings and 80 pieces of technical medical equipment. A full assessment of facility infrastructure was undertaken by health care professionals while the rapid assessment was performed by facility staff. Serious infrastructural deficiencies were revealed. The rapid assessment tool proved a reliable instrument of routine data collection by health facility staff. The authors recommend integrating the rapid assessment tool in the health information systems of developing countries. Health authorities in a decentralized health system are thus enabled to detect infrastructural deficiencies and trace the effects of interventions. The tool can lay the data foundation for district facility infrastructure management.

  14. Validation and adaptation of rapid neurodevelopmental assessment instrument for infants in Guatemala.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, L; Peñaloza, R A; Stormfields, K; Kooistra, R; Valencia-Moscoso, G; Muslima, H; Khan, N Z

    2015-11-01

    Timely detection of neurodevelopmental impairments in children can prompt referral for critical services that may prevent permanent disability. However, screening of impairments is a significant challenge in low-resource countries. We adapted and validated the rapid neurodevelopmental assessment (RNDA) instrument developed in Bangladesh to assess impairment in nine domains: primitive reflexes, gross and fine motor development, vision, hearing, speech, cognition, behaviour and seizures. We conducted a cross-sectional study of 77 infants (0-12 months) in rural Guatemala in July 2012 and July 2013. We assessed inter-rater reliability and predictive validity between the 27-item RNDA and the 325-item Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development, Third Edition (BSID-III) and concurrent validity based on chronic malnutrition, a condition associated with neurodevelopmental impairments. For both RNDA and BSID-III, standardized scores below 80 were defined as borderline impairment. Children came from rural households (92%), were born to indigenous women of Mayan descent (73%) and had moderate or severe growth stunting (43%). Inter-rater reliability for eight RNDA domains was of moderate to high reliability (weighted κ coefficients, 0.49-0.99). Children screened positive for impairment in fine motor (17%) and gross motor (14%) domains using the RNDA. The RNDA had good concurrent ability; infants who were growth stunted had higher mean levels of impairment in gross motor, speech and cognition domains (all p < 0.001). The RNDA took 20-30 min to complete compared with 45-60 min for BSID-III. Wide-scale implementation of a simple, valid and reliable screening tool like the RNDA by community health workers would facilitate early screening and referral of infants at-risk for neurodevelopmental impairment. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Zika Virus in Ontario: Evaluating a Rapid Risk Assessment Tool for Emerging Infectious Disease Threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Meer, Ryan; Hohenadel, Karin; Fitzgerald-Husek, Alanna; Warshawsky, Bryna; Sider, Doug; Schwartz, Brian; Nelder, Mark P

    To determine the Ontario-specific risk of local and travel-related Zika virus transmission in the context of a public health emergency of international concern, Public Health Ontario (PHO) completed a rapid risk assessment (RRA) on January 29, 2016, using a newly developed RRA guidance tool. The RRA concluded that risk of local mosquito-borne transmission was low, with a high risk of imported cases through travel. The RRA was updated 3 times based on predetermined triggers. An independent evaluation assessed both the application of the RRA guidance tool (process evaluation) and the usefulness of the RRA (outcome evaluation). We conducted face-to-face, semi-structured interviews with 7 individuals who participated in the creation or review of the Zika virus RRA and 4 end-users at PHO and the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care. An inductive thematic analysis of responses was undertaken, whereby themes were directly informed by the data. The process evaluation determined that most steps outlined in the RRA guidance tool were adhered to, including forming a cross-functional writing team, clarifying the scope and describing context, completing the RRA summary report, and updating the RRA based on predefined triggers. The outcome evaluation found that end-users judged the Zika virus RRA as evidence-informed, useful, consistent, and timely. The evaluation established that the locally tailored guidance tool, adapted from national and international approaches to RRAs, facilitated a systematic, evidence-informed, and timely formal RRA process at PHO for the Zika virus RRA, which met the needs of end-users. Based on the evaluation, PHO will modify future RRAs by incorporating some flexibility into the literature review process to support timeliness of the RRA, explicitly describing the limitations of studies used to inform the RRA, and refining risk algorithms to better suit emerging infectious disease threats. It is anticipated that these refinements will improve upon the

  16. Assessment of compost application to coal ash disposal sites to promote the rapid vegetation establishment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Repmann, F.; Slazak, A.; Babic, M.; Schneider, B. U.; Schaaf, W.; Hüttl, R. F.

    2009-04-01

    In the city of Tuzla, located in Bosnia and Herzegovina, a coal fired thermo electric power plant is operated by the company JP ELEKTROPRIVERDA BIH TERMOELEKTRANA "TUZLA". High amounts of ash are produced by the power plant, which are currently disposed into settlement ponds bordered by dams in natural valleys. A total of four ash disposal sites covering an area of approx. 170 ha have been established during the last decades. Due to the fact that residual ash from coal combustion was found to contain a variety of trace elements (Ni, Cr, As, B), it must be assumed that ash disposal of that magnitude constitutes an environmental problem which is investigated within the EU-FP6 / STREP project "Reintegration of Coal Ash Disposal Sites and Mitigation of Pollution in the West Balkan Area" RECOAL. The main hazards relate to soil and groundwater contamination due to leaching toxins, dust dispersion, and toxins entering the food chain as these disposal sites are used for agricultural purposes. In order to rapidly establish a vegetation cover on barren ash dumps that particularly would prevent dust erosion we assessed the applicability of compost, produced from locally available municipal and industrial organic residues as an amendment to ash to improve substrate fertility. The envisaged remediation technology was considered to be a low cost, easy applicable and rapid method capable of substantially enhancing living conditions of residents in the vicinity of the abandoned disposal sites. Various compost application rates were evaluated in the field on experimental site Divkovici I in Tuzla and additionally in the greenhouse environment at Brandenburg Technical University Cottbus. Field and laboratory tests revealed that plant growth and cover rate can substantially be improved by mixing compost into the upper ash layer to a maximum depth of approx. 20 cm. Besides direct growth observations in the field analysis of soil parameters gave evidence that the fertility of ashy

  17. Using multimodal imaging techniques to monitor limb ischemia: a rapid noninvasive method for assessing extremity wounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luthra, Rajiv; Caruso, Joseph D.; Radowsky, Jason S.; Rodriguez, Maricela; Forsberg, Jonathan; Elster, Eric A.; Crane, Nicole J.

    2013-03-01

    Over 70% of military casualties resulting from the current conflicts sustain major extremity injuries. Of these the majority are caused by blasts from improvised explosive devices. The resulting injuries include traumatic amputations, open fractures, crush injuries, and acute vascular disruption. Critical tissue ischemia—the point at which ischemic tissues lose the capacity to recover—is therefore a major concern, as lack of blood flow to tissues rapidly leads to tissue deoxygenation and necrosis. If left undetected or unaddressed, a potentially salvageable limb may require more extensive debridement or, more commonly, amputation. Predicting wound outcome during the initial management of blast wounds remains a significant challenge, as wounds continue to "evolve" during the debridement process and our ability to assess wound viability remains subjectively based. Better means of identifying critical ischemia are needed. We developed a swine limb ischemia model in which two imaging modalities were combined to produce an objective and quantitative assessment of wound perfusion and tissue viability. By using 3 Charge-Coupled Device (3CCD) and Infrared (IR) cameras, both surface tissue oxygenation as well as overall limb perfusion could be depicted. We observed a change in mean 3CCD and IR values at peak ischemia and during reperfusion correlate well with clinically observed indicators for limb function and vitality. After correcting for baseline mean R-B values, the 3CCD values correlate with surface tissue oxygenation and the IR values with changes in perfusion. This study aims to not only increase fundamental understanding of the processes involved with limb ischemia and reperfusion, but also to develop tools to monitor overall limb perfusion and tissue oxygenation in a clinical setting. A rapid and objective diagnostic for extent of ischemic damage and overall limb viability could provide surgeons with a more accurate indication of tissue viability. This may

  18. An Approach for Rapid Assessment of Seismic Hazards in Turkey by Continuous GPS Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haluk Ozener

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The Earth is being monitored every day by all kinds of sensors. This leads an overflow of data in all branches of science nowadays, especially in Earth Sciences. Data storage and data processing are the problems to be solved by current technologies, as well as by those accessing and analyzing these large data sources. Once solutions have been created for collecting, storing and accessing data, then the challenge becomes how to effectively share data, applications and processing resources across many locations. The Global Positioning System (GPS sensors are being used as geodetic instruments to precisely detect crustal motion in the Earth’s surface. Rapid access to data provided by GPS sensors is becoming increasingly important for deformation monitoring and rapid hazard assessments. Today, reliable and fast collection and distribution of data is a challenge and advances in Internet technologies have made it easier to provide the needed data. This study describes a system which will be able to generate strain maps using data from continuous GPS stations for seismic hazard analysis. Strain rates are a key factor in seismic hazard analyses. Turkey is a country prone to earthquakes with a long history of seismic hazards and disasters. This situation has resulted in the studies by Earth scientists that focus on Turkey in order to improve their understanding of the Earth’s crust structure and seismic hazards. Nevertheless, the construction of models, data access and analysis are often not fast as expected, but the combination of Internet technologies with continuous GPS sensors can be a solution to overcome this problem. This system would have the potential to answer many important questions to assess seismic hazards such as how much stretching, squashing and shearing is taking place in different parts of Turkey, and how do velocities change from place to place? Seismic hazard estimation is the most effective way to reduce

  19. An Approach for Rapid Assessment of Seismic Hazards in Turkey by Continuous GPS Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozener, Haluk; Dogru, Asli; Unlutepe, Ahmet

    2009-01-01

    The Earth is being monitored every day by all kinds of sensors. This leads an overflow of data in all branches of science nowadays, especially in Earth Sciences. Data storage and data processing are the problems to be solved by current technologies, as well as by those accessing and analyzing these large data sources. Once solutions have been created for collecting, storing and accessing data, then the challenge becomes how to effectively share data, applications and processing resources across many locations. The Global Positioning System (GPS) sensors are being used as geodetic instruments to precisely detect crustal motion in the Earth's surface. Rapid access to data provided by GPS sensors is becoming increasingly important for deformation monitoring and rapid hazard assessments. Today, reliable and fast collection and distribution of data is a challenge and advances in Internet technologies have made it easier to provide the needed data. This study describes a system which will be able to generate strain maps using data from continuous GPS stations for seismic hazard analysis. Strain rates are a key factor in seismic hazard analyses. Turkey is a country prone to earthquakes with a long history of seismic hazards and disasters. This situation has resulted in the studies by Earth scientists that focus on Turkey in order to improve their understanding of the Earth's crust structure and seismic hazards. Nevertheless, the construction of models, data access and analysis are often not fast as expected, but the combination of Internet technologies with continuous GPS sensors can be a solution to overcome this problem. This system would have the potential to answer many important questions to assess seismic hazards such as how much stretching, squashing and shearing is taking place in different parts of Turkey, and how do velocities change from place to place? Seismic hazard estimation is the most effective way to reduce earthquake losses. It is clear that reliability

  20. Prevalence of visual impairment due to uncorrected refractive error: Results from Delhi-Rapid Assessment of Visual Impairment Study

    OpenAIRE

    Suraj Singh Senjam; Praveen Vashist; Noopur Gupta; Sumit Malhotra; Vasundhara Misra; Amit Bhardwaj; Vivek Gupta

    2016-01-01

    Aim: To estimate the prevalence of visual impairment (VI) due to uncorrected refractive error (URE) and to assess the barriers to utilization of services in the adult urban population of Delhi. Materials and Methods: A population-based rapid assessment of VI was conducted among people aged 40 years and above in 24 randomly selected clusters of East Delhi district. Presenting visual acuity (PVA) was assessed in each eye using Snellen's E chart. Pinhole examination was done if PVA was