WorldWideScience

Sample records for ranking utilizes risk

  1. A note on additive risk measures in rank-dependent utility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.J.A.

    2010-01-01

    This note proves that risk measures obtained by applying the equivalent utility principle in rank-dependent utility are additive if and only if the utility function is linear or exponential and the probability weighting (distortion) function is the identity.

  2. Augmenting the Deliberative Method for Ranking Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susel, Irving; Lasley, Trace; Montezemolo, Mark; Piper, Joel

    2016-01-01

    The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) characterized and prioritized the physical cross-border threats and hazards to the nation stemming from terrorism, market-driven illicit flows of people and goods (illegal immigration, narcotics, funds, counterfeits, and weaponry), and other nonmarket concerns (movement of diseases, pests, and invasive species). These threats and hazards pose a wide diversity of consequences with very different combinations of magnitudes and likelihoods, making it very challenging to prioritize them. This article presents the approach that was used at DHS to arrive at a consensus regarding the threats and hazards that stand out from the rest based on the overall risk they pose. Due to time constraints for the decision analysis, it was not feasible to apply multiattribute methodologies like multiattribute utility theory or the analytic hierarchy process. Using a holistic approach was considered, such as the deliberative method for ranking risks first published in this journal. However, an ordinal ranking alone does not indicate relative or absolute magnitude differences among the risks. Therefore, the use of the deliberative method for ranking risks is not sufficient for deciding whether there is a material difference between the top-ranked and bottom-ranked risks, let alone deciding what the stand-out risks are. To address this limitation of ordinal rankings, the deliberative method for ranking risks was augmented by adding an additional step to transform the ordinal ranking into a ratio scale ranking. This additional step enabled the selection of stand-out risks to help prioritize further analysis. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. NON-EXPECTED UTILITY THEORIES: WEIGHTED EXPECTED, RANK DEPENDENT, AND CUMULATIVE PROSPECT THEORY UTILITY

    OpenAIRE

    Tuthill, Jonathan W.; Frechette, Darren L.

    2002-01-01

    This paper discusses some of the failings of expected utility including the Allais paradox and expected utility's inadequate one dimensional characterization of risk. Three alternatives to expected utility are discussed at length; weighted expected utility, rank dependent utility, and cumulative prospect theory. Each alternative is capable of explaining Allais paradox type problems and permits more sophisticated multi dimensional risk preferences.

  4. Rank dependent expected utility models of tax evasion.

    OpenAIRE

    Erling Eide

    2001-01-01

    In this paper the rank-dependent expected utility theory is substituted for the expected utility theory in models of tax evasion. It is demonstrated that the comparative statics results of the expected utility, portfolio choice model of tax evasion carry over to the more general rank dependent expected utility model.

  5. Testing rank-dependent utility theory for health outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Adam

    2003-10-01

    Systematic violations of expected utility theory (EU) have been reported in the context of both money and health outcomes. Rank-dependent utility theory (RDU) is currently the most popular and influential alternative theory of choice under circumstances of risk. This paper reports a test of the descriptive performance of RDU compared to EU in the context of health. When one of the options is certain, violations of EU that can be explained by RDU are found. When both options are risky, no evidence that RDU is a descriptive improvement over EU is found, though this finding may be due to the low power of the tests. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Optimal provision of public goods with rank dependent expected utility

    OpenAIRE

    Eide, Erling

    2003-01-01

    In this paper the theory of rank-dependent expected utility (RDEU) is substituted for the theory of expected utility (EU) in a model of optimal provision of public goods. The substitution generalizes the Samuelson rule, previously modified to include deadweight loss and tax evasion loss.

  7. Method ranks competing projects by priorities, risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeckel, D.R.

    1993-01-01

    A practical, objective guide for ranking projects based on risk-based priorities has been developed by Sun Pipe Line Co. The deliberately simple system guides decisions on how to allocate scarce company resources because all managers employ the same criteria in weighing potential risks to the company versus benefits. Managers at all levels are continuously having to comply with an ever growing amount of legislative and regulatory requirements while at the same time trying to run their businesses effectively. The system primarily is designed for use as a compliance oversight and tracking process to document, categorize, and follow-up on work concerning various issues or projects. That is, the system consists of an electronic database which is updated periodically, and is used by various levels of management to monitor progress of health, safety, environmental and compliance-related projects. Criteria used in determining a risk factor and assigning a priority also have been adapted and found useful for evaluating other types of projects. The process enables management to better define potential risks and/or loss of benefits that are being accepted when a project is rejected from an immediate work plan or budget. In times of financial austerity, it is extremely important that the right decisions are made at the right time

  8. Risk-informed ranking of engineering projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jyrkama, M.; Pandey, M.

    2011-01-01

    Refurbishment planning requires prudent investment decisions with respect to the various systems and components at the station. These decisions are influenced by many factors, including engineering, safety, regulatory, economic, and political constraints. From an engineering perspective, the concept of cost-benefit analysis is a common way to allocate capital among various projects. Naturally, the 'best' or optimal project should have the lowest cost and the highest benefit. In the context of risk-informed decision making (RIDM), a process that has been widely embraced by the global nuclear community, the costs and benefits must further be 'weighted' by probabilities to estimate the underlying risk associated with the various planning alternatives. The main purpose of this study is to illustrate how risk and reliability information can be integrated into the refurbishment planning process to facilitate more objective and transparent investment decisions. The methodology is based on the concept of generation risk assessment (GRA) which provides a systematic approach for balancing investment costs with the reduction in overall financial risk. In addition to reliability predictions, the model provides estimates for the level of risk reduction associated with each system/project and also the break-even point for investment. This information is vital for project ranking, and helps to address the key question of whether capital investment should be made in the most risk critical systems, or in systems that reduce the overall risk the most. The application of the proposed methodology requires only basic information regarding the current reliability of each engineering system, which should be readily available from plant records and routine condition assessments. Because the methodology can be readily implemented in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, all plausible (e.g., bounding) planning scenarios, with or without investment, can also be generated quickly and easily, while

  9. Feasibility study of component risk ranking for plant maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ushijima, Koji; Yonebayashi, Kenji; Narumiya, Yoshiyuki; Sakata, Kaoru; Kumano, Tetsuji

    1999-01-01

    Nuclear power is the base load electricity source in Japan, and reduction of operation and maintenance cost maintaining or improving plant safety is one of the major issues. Recently, Risk Informed Management (RIM) is focused as a solution. In this paper, the outline regarding feasibility study of component risk ranking for plant maintenance for a typical Japanese PWR plant is described. A feasibility study of component risk raking for plant maintenance optimization is performed on check valves and motor-operated valves. Risk ranking is performed in two steps using probabilistic analysis (quantitative method) for risk ranking of components, and deterministic examination (qualitative method) for component review. In this study, plant components are ranked from the viewpoint of plant safety / reliability, and the applicability for maintenance is assessed. As a result, distribution of maintenance resources using risk ranking is considered effective. (author)

  10. Risk-ranking IST components into two categories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowley, C.W.

    1996-01-01

    The ASME has utilized several schemes for identifying the appropriate scope of components for inservice testing (IST). The initial scope was ASME Code Class 1/2/3, with all components treated equally. Later the ASME Operations and Maintenance (O ampersand M) Committee decided to use safe shutdown and accident mitigation as the scoping criteria, but continued to treat all components equal inside that scope. Recently the ASME O ampersand M Committee decided to recognize service condition of the component, hence the comprehensive pump test. Although probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) are incredibly complex plant models and computer hardware and software intensive, they are a tool that can be utilized by many plant engineering organizations to analyze plant system and component applications. In 1992 the ASME O ampersand M Committee got interested in using the PRA as a tool to categorize its pumps and valves. In 1994 the ASME O ampersand M Committee commissioned the ASME Center for Research and Technology Development (CRTD) to develop a process that adapted the PRA technology to IST. In late 1995 that process was presented to the ASME O ampersand M Committee. The process had three distinct portions: (1) risk-rank the IST components; (2) develop a more effective testing strategy for More Safety Significant Components; and (3) develop a more economic testing strategy for Less Safety Significant Components

  11. Risk-ranking IST components into two categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowley, C.W.

    1996-12-01

    The ASME has utilized several schemes for identifying the appropriate scope of components for inservice testing (IST). The initial scope was ASME Code Class 1/2/3, with all components treated equally. Later the ASME Operations and Maintenance (O&M) Committee decided to use safe shutdown and accident mitigation as the scoping criteria, but continued to treat all components equal inside that scope. Recently the ASME O&M Committee decided to recognize service condition of the component, hence the comprehensive pump test. Although probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) are incredibly complex plant models and computer hardware and software intensive, they are a tool that can be utilized by many plant engineering organizations to analyze plant system and component applications. In 1992 the ASME O&M Committee got interested in using the PRA as a tool to categorize its pumps and valves. In 1994 the ASME O&M Committee commissioned the ASME Center for Research and Technology Development (CRTD) to develop a process that adapted the PRA technology to IST. In late 1995 that process was presented to the ASME O&M Committee. The process had three distinct portions: (1) risk-rank the IST components; (2) develop a more effective testing strategy for More Safety Significant Components; and (3) develop a more economic testing strategy for Less Safety Significant Components.

  12. Multi-attribute risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brito, A.J.; Almeida, A.T. de

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents a decision model for risk assessment and for risk ranking of sections of natural gas pipelines based on multi-attribute utility theory. Pipeline hazard scenarios are surveyed and the reasons for a risk assessment model based on a multi-attribute approach are presented. Three dimensions of impact and the need to translate decision-makers' preferences into risk management decisions are highlighted. The model approaches these factors by using a multi-attribute utility function, in order to produce multi-dimensional risk measurements. By using decision analysis concepts, this model quantitatively incorporates the decision-maker's preferences and behavior regarding risk within clear and consistent risk measurements. In order to support the prioritizing of critical sections of pipeline in natural gas companies, this multi-attribute model also allows sections of pipeline to be ranked into a risk hierarchy. A numerical application based on a real case study was undertaken so that the effectiveness of the decision model could be verified

  13. Predicting disease risk using bootstrap ranking and classification algorithms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ohad Manor

    Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS are widely used to search for genetic loci that underlie human disease. Another goal is to predict disease risk for different individuals given their genetic sequence. Such predictions could either be used as a "black box" in order to promote changes in life-style and screening for early diagnosis, or as a model that can be studied to better understand the mechanism of the disease. Current methods for risk prediction typically rank single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs by the p-value of their association with the disease, and use the top-associated SNPs as input to a classification algorithm. However, the predictive power of such methods is relatively poor. To improve the predictive power, we devised BootRank, which uses bootstrapping in order to obtain a robust prioritization of SNPs for use in predictive models. We show that BootRank improves the ability to predict disease risk of unseen individuals in the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC data and results in a more robust set of SNPs and a larger number of enriched pathways being associated with the different diseases. Finally, we show that combining BootRank with seven different classification algorithms improves performance compared to previous studies that used the WTCCC data. Notably, diseases for which BootRank results in the largest improvements were recently shown to have more heritability than previously thought, likely due to contributions from variants with low minimum allele frequency (MAF, suggesting that BootRank can be beneficial in cases where SNPs affecting the disease are poorly tagged or have low MAF. Overall, our results show that improving disease risk prediction from genotypic information may be a tangible goal, with potential implications for personalized disease screening and treatment.

  14. Evaluating intergenerational risks: Probabillity adjusted rank-discounted utilitarianism

    OpenAIRE

    Asheim, Geir B.; Zuber, Stéphane

    2015-01-01

    Climate policies have stochastic consequences that involve a great number of generations. This calls for evaluating social risk (what kind of societies will future people be born into) rather than individual risk (what will happen to people during their own lifetimes). As a response we propose and axiomatize probability adjusted rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (PARDCLU), through a key axiom that requires that the social welfare order both be ethical and satisfy first...

  15. Mutual Fund Tournament: Risk Taking Incentives Induced by Ranking Objectives

    OpenAIRE

    Goriaev, A.P.; Palomino, F.A.; Prat, A.

    2000-01-01

    There is now extensive empirical evidence showing that fund managers have relative performance objectives and adapt their investment strategy in the last part of the calendar year to their performance in the early part of the year. However, emphasis was put on returns in excess of some exogenous benchmark return.In this paper, we investigate whether fund managers have ranking objectives (as in a tournament).First, in a two-period model, we analyze the game played by two risk-neutral fund mana...

  16. Conservation threats and the phylogenetic utility of IUCN Red List rankings in Incilius toads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schachat, Sandra R; Mulcahy, Daniel G; Mendelson, Joseph R

    2016-02-01

    Phylogenetic analysis of extinction threat is an emerging tool in the field of conservation. However, there are problems with the methods and data as commonly used. Phylogenetic sampling usually extends to the level of family or genus, but International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) rankings are available only for individual species, and, although different species within a taxonomic group may have the same IUCN rank, the species may have been ranked as such for different reasons. Therefore, IUCN rank may not reflect evolutionary history and thus may not be appropriate for use in a phylogenetic context. To be used appropriately, threat-risk data should reflect the cause of extinction threat rather than the IUCN threat ranking. In a case study of the toad genus Incilius, with phylogenetic sampling at the species level (so that the resolution of the phylogeny matches character data from the IUCN Red List), we analyzed causes of decline and IUCN threat rankings by calculating metrics of phylogenetic signal (such as Fritz and Purvis' D). We also analyzed the extent to which cause of decline and threat ranking overlap by calculating phylogenetic correlation between these 2 types of character data. Incilius species varied greatly in both threat ranking and cause of decline; this variability would be lost at a coarser taxonomic resolution. We found far more phylogenetic signal, likely correlated with evolutionary history, for causes of decline than for IUCN threat ranking. Individual causes of decline and IUCN threat rankings were largely uncorrelated on the phylogeny. Our results demonstrate the importance of character selection and taxonomic resolution when extinction threat is analyzed in a phylogenetic context. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  17. Consumer preference in ranking walking function utilizing the walking index for spinal cord injury II.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, M; Ditunno, P; Ditunno, J F; Marino, R J; Scivoletto, G; Lam, T; Loffree, J; Tamburella, F; Leiby, B

    2011-12-01

    Blinded rank ordering. To determine consumer preference in walking function utilizing the walking Index for spinal cord injury II (WISCI II) in individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI)from the Canada, the Italy and the United States of America. In all, 42 consumers with incomplete SCI (25 cervical, 12 thoracic, 5 lumbar) from Canada (12/42), Italy (14/42) and the United States of America (16/42) ranked the 20 levels of the WISCI II scale by their individual preference for walking. Subjects were blinded to the original ranking of the WISCI II scale by clinical scientists. Photographs of each WISCI II level used in a previous pilot study were randomly shuffled and rank ordered. Percentile, conjoint/cluster and graphic analyses were performed. All three analyses illustrated consumer ranking followed a bimodal distribution. Ranking for two levels with physical assistance and two levels with a walker were bimodal with a difference of five to six ranks between consumer subgroups (quartile analysis). The larger cluster (N=20) showed preference for walking with assistance over the smaller cluster (N=12), whose preference was walking without assistance and more devices. In all, 64% (27/42) of consumers ranked WISCI II level with no devices or braces and 1 person assistance higher than multiple levels of the WISCI II requiring no assistance. These results were unexpected, as the hypothesis was that consumers would rank independent walking higher than walking with assistance. Consumer preference for walking function should be considered in addition to objective measures in designing SCI trials that use significant improvement in walking function as an outcome measure.

  18. Identification and ranking of the risk factors of cloud computing in State-Owned organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noor Mohammad Yaghoubi

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Rapid development of processing and storage technologies and the success of the Internet have made computing resources cheaper, more powerful and more available than before. This technological trend has enabled the realization of a new computing model called cloud computing. Recently, the State-Owned organizations have begun to utilize cloud computing architectures, platforms, and applications to deliver services and meet constituents’ needs. Despite all of the advantages and opportunities of cloud computing technology, there are so many risks that State-Owned organizations need to know about before their migration to cloud environment. The purpose of this study is to identify and rank the risks factors of cloud computing in State-Owned organizations by making use of IT experts’ opinion. Firstly, by reviewing key articles, a comprehensive list of risks factors were extracted and classified into two categories: tangible and intangible. Then, six experts were interviewed about these risks and their classifications, and 10 risks were identified. After that, process of ranking the risks was done by seeking help from 52 experts and by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. The results show that experts have identified intangible risks as the most important risks in cloud computing usage by State-Owned organizations. As the results indicate, "data confidentiality" risk has the highest place among the other risks.

  19. Clean utilization of low-rank coals for low-cost power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sondreal, E.A.

    1992-01-01

    Despite the unique utilization problems of low-rank coals, the ten US steam electric plants having the lowest operating cost in 1990 were all fueled on either lignite or subbituminous coal. Ash deposition problems, which have been a major barrier to sustaining high load on US boilers burning high-sodium low-rank coals, have been substantially reduced by improvements in coal selection, boiler design, on-line cleaning, operating conditions, and additives. Advantages of low-rank coals in advanced systems are their noncaking behavior when heated, their high reactivity allowing more complete reaction at lower temperatures, and the low sulfur content of selected deposits. The principal barrier issues are the high-temperature behavior of ash and volatile alkali derived from the coal-bound sodium found in some low-rank coals. Successful upgrading of low-rank coals requires that the product be both stable and suitable for end use in conventional and advanced systems. Coal-water fuel produced by hydrothermal processing of high-moisture low-rank coal meets these criteria, whereas most dry products from drying or carbonizing in hot gas tend to create dust and spontaneous ignition problems unless coated, agglomerated, briquetted, or afforded special handling

  20. Ranking of risk significant components for the Davis-Besse Component Cooling Water System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seniuk, P.J.

    1994-01-01

    Utilities that run nuclear power plants are responsible for testing pumps and valves, as specified by the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) that are required for safe shutdown, mitigating the consequences of an accident, and maintaining the plant in a safe condition. These inservice components are tested according to ASME Codes, either the earlier requirements of the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Section XI, or the more recent requirements of the ASME Operation and Maintenance Code, Section IST. These codes dictate test techniques and frequencies regardless of the component failure rate or significance of failure consequences. A probabilistic risk assessment or probabilistic safety assessment may be used to evaluate the component importance for inservice test (IST) risk ranking, which is a combination of failure rate and failure consequences. Resources for component testing during the normal quarterly verification test or postmaintenance test are expensive. Normal quarterly testing may cause component unavailability. Outage testing may increase outage cost with no real benefit. This paper identifies the importance ranking of risk significant components in the Davis-Besse component cooling water system. Identifying the ranking of these risk significant IST components adds technical insight for developing the appropriate test technique and test frequency

  1. A stable systemic risk ranking in China's banking sector: Based on principal component analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Libing; Xiao, Binqing; Yu, Honghai; You, Qixing

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we compare five popular systemic risk rankings, and apply principal component analysis (PCA) model to provide a stable systemic risk ranking for the Chinese banking sector. Our empirical results indicate that five methods suggest vastly different systemic risk rankings for the same bank, while the combined systemic risk measure based on PCA provides a reliable ranking. Furthermore, according to factor loadings of the first component, PCA combined ranking is mainly based on fundamentals instead of market price data. We clearly find that price-based rankings are not as practical a method as fundamentals-based ones. This PCA combined ranking directly shows systemic risk contributions of each bank for banking supervision purpose and reminds banks to prevent and cope with the financial crisis in advance.

  2. Desirability of Outcome Ranking (DOOR) and Response Adjusted for Duration of Antibiotic Risk (RADAR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Scott R; Rubin, Daniel; Follmann, Dean; Pennello, Gene; Huskins, W Charles; Powers, John H; Schoenfeld, David; Chuang-Stein, Christy; Cosgrove, Sara E; Fowler, Vance G; Lautenbach, Ebbing; Chambers, Henry F

    2015-09-01

    Clinical trials that compare strategies to optimize antibiotic use are of critical importance but are limited by competing risks that distort outcome interpretation, complexities of noninferiority trials, large sample sizes, and inadequate evaluation of benefits and harms at the patient level. The Antibacterial Resistance Leadership Group strives to overcome these challenges through innovative trial design. Response adjusted for duration of antibiotic risk (RADAR) is a novel methodology utilizing a superiority design and a 2-step process: (1) categorizing patients into an overall clinical outcome (based on benefits and harms), and (2) ranking patients with respect to a desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR). DOORs are constructed by assigning higher ranks to patients with (1) better overall clinical outcomes and (2) shorter durations of antibiotic use for similar overall clinical outcomes. DOOR distributions are compared between antibiotic use strategies. The probability that a randomly selected patient will have a better DOOR if assigned to the new strategy is estimated. DOOR/RADAR represents a new paradigm in assessing the risks and benefits of new strategies to optimize antibiotic use. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Ranking ecological risks of multiple chemical stressors on amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedorenkova, Anastasia; Vonk, J Arie; Lenders, H J Rob; Creemers, Raymond C M; Breure, Anton M; Hendriks, A Jan

    2012-06-01

    Populations of amphibians have been declining worldwide since the late 1960s. Despite global concern, no studies have quantitatively assessed the major causes of this decline. In the present study, species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) were developed to analyze the sensitivity of anurans for ammonium, nitrate, heavy metals (cadmium, copper), pesticides (18 compounds), and acidification (pH) based on laboratory toxicity data. Ecological risk (ER) was calculated as the probability that a measured environmental concentration of a particular stressor in habitats where anurans were observed would exceed the toxic effect concentrations derived from the species sensitivity distributions. The assessment of ER was used to rank the stressors according to their potential risk to anurans based on a case study of Dutch freshwater bodies. The derived ERs revealed that threats to populations of anurans decreased in the sequence of pH, copper, diazinon, ammonium, and endosulfan. Other stressors studied were of minor importance. The method of deriving ER by combining field observation data and laboratory data provides insight into potential threats to species in their habitats and can be used to prioritize stressors, which is necessary to achieve effective management in amphibian conservation. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  4. Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

    2017-06-01

    In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

  5. Preliminary risk assessment database and risk ranking of pharmaceuticals in the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, Emily R.; Siewicki, Thomas C.; Phillips, Karl

    2008-01-01

    There is increasing concern about pharmaceuticals entering surface waters and the impacts these compounds may have on aquatic organisms. Many contaminants, including pharmaceuticals, are not completely removed by wastewater treatment. Discharge of effluent into surface waters results in chronic low-concentration exposure of aquatic organisms to these compounds, with unknown impacts. Exposure of virulent bacteria in wastewater to antibiotic residues may also induce resistance, which could threaten human health. The purpose of this study was to provide information on pharmaceutical threats to the environment. A preliminary risk assessment database for common pharmaceuticals was created and put into a web-accessible database named 'Pharmaceuticals in the Environment, Information for Assessing Risk' (PEIAR) to help others evaluate potential risks of pharmaceutical contaminants in the environment. Information from PEIAR was used to prioritize compounds that may threaten the environment, with a focus on marine and estuarine environments. The pharmaceuticals were ranked using five different combinations of physical-chemical and toxicological data, which emphasized different risks. The results of the ranking methods differed in the compounds identified as high risk; however, drugs from the central nervous system, cardiovascular, and anti-infective classes were heavily represented within the top 100 drugs in all rankings. Anti-infectives may pose the greatest overall risk based upon our results using a combination of factors that measure environmental transport, fate, and aquatic toxicity. The dataset is also useful for highlighting information that is still needed to assuredly assess risk

  6. Explaining Distortions in Utility Elicitation through the Rank-Dependent Model for Risky Choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.P. Wakker (Peter); A.M. Stiggelbout (Anne)

    1995-01-01

    textabstractThe standard gamble (SG) method has been accepted as the gold standard for the elicitation of utility when risk or uncertainty is involved in decisions, and thus for the measurement of utility in medical decisions. Unfortunately, the SG method is distorted by a general dislike for

  7. Advanced Acid Gas Separation Technology for the Utilization of Low Rank Coals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kloosterman, Jeff

    2012-12-31

    Air Products has developed a potentially ground-breaking technology – Sour Pressure Swing Adsorption (PSA) – to replace the solvent-based acid gas removal (AGR) systems currently employed to separate sulfur containing species, along with CO{sub 2} and other impurities, from gasifier syngas streams. The Sour PSA technology is based on adsorption processes that utilize pressure swing or temperature swing regeneration methods. Sour PSA technology has already been shown with higher rank coals to provide a significant reduction in the cost of CO{sub 2} capture for power generation, which should translate to a reduction in cost of electricity (COE), compared to baseline CO{sub 2} capture plant design. The objective of this project is to test the performance and capability of the adsorbents in handling tar and other impurities using a gaseous mixture generated from the gasification of lower rank, lignite coal. The results of this testing are used to generate a high-level pilot process design, and to prepare a techno-economic assessment evaluating the applicability of the technology to plants utilizing these coals.

  8. EFSA Panel on Biological Hazards (BIOHAZ); Scientific Opinion on on the development of a risk ranking framework on biological hazards

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Tine

    between the time frame and the requirements of the risk ranking exercise was stressed as well as the interaction between the risk managers and the risk assessors in the definition of the risk ranking purpose and the presentation of the results. Furthermore the development of a risk ranking toolbox based...

  9. Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food related hazards, based on risks for human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H. J.; van Asselt, E. D.; Raley, M.

    2018-01-01

    This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science......, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered - based on their characteristics - into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years, multi......-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking...

  10. Environmental restoration risk-based prioritization work package planning and risk ranking methodology. Revision 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dail, J.L.; Nanstad, L.D.; White, R.K.

    1995-06-01

    This document presents the risk-based prioritization methodology developed to evaluate and rank Environmental Restoration (ER) work packages at the five US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Field Office (DOE-ORO) sites [i.e., Oak Ridge K-25 Site (K-25), Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS), Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant (Y-12)], the ER Off-site Program, and Central ER. This prioritization methodology was developed to support the increased rigor and formality of work planning in the overall conduct of operations within the DOE-ORO ER Program. Prioritization is conducted as an integral component of the fiscal ER funding cycle to establish program budget priorities. The purpose of the ER risk-based prioritization methodology is to provide ER management with the tools and processes needed to evaluate, compare, prioritize, and justify fiscal budget decisions for a diverse set of remedial action, decontamination and decommissioning, and waste management activities. The methodology provides the ER Program with a framework for (1) organizing information about identified DOE-ORO environmental problems, (2) generating qualitative assessments of the long- and short-term risks posed by DOE-ORO environmental problems, and (3) evaluating the benefits associated with candidate work packages designed to reduce those risks. Prioritization is conducted to rank ER work packages on the basis of the overall value (e.g., risk reduction, stakeholder confidence) each package provides to the ER Program. Application of the methodology yields individual work package ''scores'' and rankings that are used to develop fiscal budget requests. This document presents the technical basis for the decision support tools and process

  11. Quiggin's Rank Dependent Model. Review of Generalized Expected Utility Theory: The Rank-Dependent Model, by John Quiggin

    OpenAIRE

    Wakker, Peter

    1994-01-01

    textabstractJohn Quiggin is a professor at the centre for Economic Policy Research of the Australian National University. His research interests are decision making under risk and agricultural economics. The reviewer is an associate professor at the Medical Decision Making Unit, University of Leiden, Leiden, The Netherlands. His main interest is decision making under uncertainty.

  12. Quiggin's Rank Dependent Model. Review of Generalized Expected Utility Theory: The Rank-Dependent Model, by John Quiggin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractJohn Quiggin is a professor at the centre for Economic Policy Research of the Australian National University. His research interests are decision making under risk and agricultural economics. The reviewer is an associate professor at the Medical Decision Making Unit, University of

  13. Dietary risk ranking for residual antibiotics in cultured aquatic products around Tai Lake, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Chao; Li, Le; Zhang, Cong; Qiu, Liping; Fan, Limin; Wu, Wei; Meng, Shunlong; Hu, Gengdong; Chen, Jiazhang; Liu, Ying; Mao, Aimin

    2017-10-01

    Antibiotics are widely used in aquaculture and therefore may be present as a dietary risk in cultured aquatic products. Using the Tai Lake Basin as a study area, we assessed the presence of 15 antibiotics in 5 widely cultured aquatic species using a newly developed dietary risk ranking approach. By assigning scores to each factor involved in the ranking matrices, the scores of dietary risks per antibiotic and per aquatic species were calculated. The results indicated that fluoroquinolone antibiotics posed the highest dietary risk in all aquatic species. Then, the total scores per aquatic species were summed by all 15 antibiotic scores of antibiotics, it was found that Crab (Eriocheir sinensis) had the highest dietary risks. Finally, the most concerned antibiotic category and aquatic species were selected. This study highlighted the importance of dietary risk ranking in the production and consumption of cultured aquatic products around Tai Lake. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Risk and utility in portfolio optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Morrel H.; Natoli, Vincent D.

    2003-06-01

    Modern portfolio theory (MPT) addresses the problem of determining the optimum allocation of investment resources among a set of candidate assets. In the original mean-variance approach of Markowitz, volatility is taken as a proxy for risk, conflating uncertainty with risk. There have been many subsequent attempts to alleviate that weakness which, typically, combine utility and risk. We present here a modification of MPT based on the inclusion of separate risk and utility criteria. We define risk as the probability of failure to meet a pre-established investment goal. We define utility as the expectation of a utility function with positive and decreasing marginal value as a function of yield. The emphasis throughout is on long investment horizons for which risk-free assets do not exist. Analytic results are presented for a Gaussian probability distribution. Risk-utility relations are explored via empirical stock-price data, and an illustrative portfolio is optimized using the empirical data.

  15. Drug utilization research and risk management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mazzaglia, Giampiero; Mol, Peter G. M.; Elseviers, Monique; Wettermark, Björn; Almarsdóttir, Anna Birna; Andersen, Morten; Benko, Ria; Bennie, Marion; Eriksson, Irene; Godman, Brian; Krska, Janet; Poluzzi, Elisabetta; Taxis, Katja; Vlahovic-Palcevski, Vera; Stichele, Robert Vander

    2016-01-01

    Good risk management requires continuous evaluation and improvement of planned activities. The evaluation impact of risk management activities requires robust study designs and carefully selected outcome measures. Key learnings and caveats from drug utilization research should be applied to the

  16. Health Risk Ranking of Lead Contaminated Sites in Bagega Community, Zamfara State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alaba Olanreaju Clement

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: The release of lead dust during the processing of lead-gold ore has become an environmental threat. Therefore the protection of miners’ health and their environment required remediation which can be achieved by ranking the risk posed by lead in order to prioritize the allocation of resources during remediation. Methods: Soil and water samples were collected at BRC, BRG, BVC, BPA and BFA; BWE, BBH and BPO using stratified random and grab sampling methods. Lead concentrations in the samples were determined using AAS while health risk index (HRI via ingestion was estimated using USEPA equations. The ranking of HRI was done using Detailed Quantitative Risk Assessment while the difference between the HRI and USEPA standard were determined using one sample t test. Results: The result showed that BRC/10, BRG/03, BVC/11, BPA/02 and BFA/08 were ranked highest in soil samples, while BWE/02, BBH/09 and BPO/04 were ranked highest in water samples as they posed elevated health risk effects to miners. One sample t test established that the BRC, BPA, BFA and BPO were significantly different from United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA standard. Conclusion: The study discovered that the users of both the lead contaminated soil and water were seriously exposed to potential health risk. It therefore suggested that decision makers should give priority in allocating resources to those sites with elevated lead concentrations during the remediation.

  17. Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food-related hazards, based on risks for human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Van Asselt, E D; Raley, M; Poulsen, M; Korsgaard, H; Bredsdorff, L; Nauta, M; D'agostino, M; Coles, D; Marvin, H J P; Frewer, L J

    2018-01-22

    This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science and socio-economic sciences. The review used a predefined search protocol, and covered the bibliographic databases Scopus, CAB Abstracts, Web of Sciences, and PubMed over the period 1993-2013. All references deemed relevant, on the basis of predefined evaluation criteria, were included in the review, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered-based on their characteristics-into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years (HALY), multi-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking. The method to be used should be selected on the basis of risk manager/assessor requirements, data availability, and the characteristics of the method. Recommendations for future use and application are provided.

  18. An empirical investigation on ranking financial risk factors using AHP method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Ghodrati

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper determines and ranks financial risk factors in Iranian corporations, using analytical hierarchy process (AHP. The present research includes one main question and four sub- questions. Its universe population includes managers, production and financial personnel of great corporations activating in Tehran Stock Exchange, who were selected to explain importance and weight of economic risks indices. The source of great corporations recognition is the Companies Registration Organization in Tehran Province, and according to this, there are 120 corporations. The results have indicated that financing risk maintains the highest priority followed by credit risk, liquidity risk, inflation risk and exchange risk. In terms of different risks associated with financing risk, risk of profit per share has been the number one priority followed by the risk of divisional profit per share, the risk of recessionary or boom and the risk of increasing partial pay profit rate. In terms of credit risk, the risk of loan has been number one priority followed by the risk of inability of loan payment and interest payment. Liquidity risk is another risk factor where demand has been the most important factor followed by rules and regulations and inflation risk. In terms of inflation, producers price risk has been the most important factor followed by consumer price risk, gross domestic product and producers price risk. Finally, in terms of different factors influencing exchange risk, export related issues are considered as the most important factors.

  19. Decision support for utility environmental risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balson, W.E.; Wilson, D.S.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reviews a number of decision support methods developed and applied by Decision Focus Incorporated to help utility personnel manage current environmental problems. This work has been performed for the Environmental Risk Analysis Program of EPRI's Environment Division, and also for a number of electric utilities across the country. These are two distinct types of decision support software tools that have been created: economic risk management and environmental risk analysis. These types differ primarily in the identification of who will make a decision. Economic risk management tools are directed primarily at decisions made by electric utilities. Environmental risk analysis tools are directed primarily at decisions made by legislative or regulatory agencies, about which a utility may wish to comment

  20. Dose-volume based ranking of incident beam direction and its utility in facilitating IMRT beam placement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schreibmann, Eduard; Xing Lei

    2005-01-01

    Purpose: Beam orientation optimization in intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) is computationally intensive, and various single beam ranking techniques have been proposed to reduce the search space. Up to this point, none of the existing ranking techniques considers the clinically important dose-volume effects of the involved structures, which may lead to clinically irrelevant angular ranking. The purpose of this work is to develop a clinically sensible angular ranking model with incorporation of dose-volume effects and to show its utility for IMRT beam placement. Methods and Materials: The general consideration in constructing this angular ranking function is that a beamlet/beam is preferable if it can deliver a higher dose to the target without exceeding the tolerance of the sensitive structures located on the path of the beamlet/beam. In the previously proposed dose-based approach, the beamlets are treated independently and, to compute the maximally deliverable dose to the target volume, the intensity of each beamlet is pushed to its maximum intensity without considering the values of other beamlets. When volumetric structures are involved, the complication arises from the fact that there are numerous dose distributions corresponding to the same dose-volume tolerance. In this situation, the beamlets are not independent and an optimization algorithm is required to find the intensity profile that delivers the maximum target dose while satisfying the volumetric constraints. In this study, the behavior of a volumetric organ was modeled by using the equivalent uniform dose (EUD). A constrained sequential quadratic programming algorithm (CFSQP) was used to find the beam profile that delivers the maximum dose to the target volume without violating the EUD constraint or constraints. To assess the utility of the proposed technique, we planned a head-and-neck and abdominal case with and without the guidance of the angular ranking information. The qualities of the

  1. An alternative approach to risk rank chemicals on the threat they pose to the aquatic environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Andrew C; Donnachie, Rachel L; Sumpter, John P; Jürgens, Monika D; Moeckel, Claudia; Pereira, M Gloria

    2017-12-01

    This work presents a new and unbiased method of risk ranking chemicals based on the threat they pose to the aquatic environment. The study ranked 12 metals, 23 pesticides, 11 other persistent organic pollutants (POPs), 13 pharmaceuticals, 10 surfactants and similar compounds and 2 nanoparticles (total of 71) of concern against one another by comparing their median UK river water and median ecotoxicity effect concentrations. To complement this, by giving an assessment on potential wildlife impacts, risk ranking was also carried out by comparing the lowest 10th percentile of the effects data with the highest 90th percentile of the exposure data. In other words, risk was pared down to just toxicity versus exposure. Further modifications included incorporating bioconcentration factors, using only recent water measurements and excluding either lethal or sub-lethal effects. The top ten chemicals, based on the medians, which emerged as having the highest risk to organisms in UK surface waters using all the ecotoxicity data were copper, aluminium, zinc, ethinylestradiol (EE2), linear alkylbenzene sulfonate (LAS), triclosan, manganese, iron, methomyl and chlorpyrifos. By way of contrast, using current UK environmental quality standards as the comparator to median UK river water concentrations would have selected 6 different chemicals in the top ten. This approach revealed big differences in relative risk; for example, zinc presented a million times greater risk then metoprolol and LAS 550 times greater risk than nanosilver. With the exception of EE2, most pharmaceuticals were ranked as having a relatively low risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. A combined QSAR and partial order ranking approach to risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlsen, L

    2006-04-01

    QSAR generated data appear as an attractive alternative to experimental data as foreseen in the proposed new chemicals legislation REACH. A preliminary risk assessment for the aquatic environment can be based on few factors, i.e. the octanol-water partition coefficient (Kow), the vapour pressure (VP) and the potential biodegradability of the compound in combination with the predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) and the actual tonnage in which the substance is produced. Application of partial order ranking, allowing simultaneous inclusion of several parameters leads to a mutual prioritisation of the investigated substances, the prioritisation possibly being further analysed through the concept of linear extensions and average ranks. The ranking uses endpoint values (log Kow and log VP) derived from strictly linear 'noise-deficient' QSAR models as input parameters. Biodegradation estimates were adopted from the BioWin module of the EPI Suite. The population growth impairment of Tetrahymena pyriformis was used as a surrogate for fish lethality.

  3. Evaluations and utilizations of risk importances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Davis, T.C.

    1985-08-01

    This report presents approaches for utilizing Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRA's) to determine risk importances. Risk importances are determined for design features, plant operations, and other factors that can affect risk. PRA's can be used to identify the importances of risk contributors or proposed changes to designs or operations. The objective of this report is to serve as a handbook and guide in evaluating and applying risk importances. The utilization of both qualitative risk importances and quantitative risk importances is described in this report. Qualitative risk importances are based on the logic models in the PRA, while quantitative risk importances are based on the quantitative results of the PRA. Both types of importances are among the most robust and meaningful information a PRA can provide. A wide variety of risk importance evaluations are described including evaluations of the importances of design changes, testing, maintenance, degrading environments, and aging. Specific utilizations are described in inspection and in reliability assurance programs, however the general approaches have widespread applicability. The role of personal computers and decision support programs in applying risk importance evaluations is also described

  4. Risks identification and ranking using AHP and group decision making technique: Presenting “R index”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Safar Fazli

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available One of the primary concerns in project development is to detect all sorts of risks associated with a particular project. The main objective of this article is to identify the risks in the construction project and to grade them based on their importance on the project. The designed indicator in this paper is the combinational model of the Analytical Hierarchal Process (AHP method and the group decision – making applied for risks measurement and ranking. This indicator is called "R" which includes three main steps: creating the risks broken structure (RBS, obtaining each risk weight and efficacy, and finally performing the model to rank the risks. A questionnaire is used for gathering data. Based on the results of this survey, there are important risks associated with construction projects. There we need to use some guidelines to reduce the inherent risks including recognition of the common risks beside the political risks; suggestion of a simple, understandable, and practical model; and using plenty of the experts and specialists' opinions through applying step. After analyzing data, the final result from applying R index showed that the risk “economic changes / currency rate and inflation change" has the most importance for the analysis. In the other words, if these risks occur, the project may face with the more threats and it is suggested that an organization should centralize its equipment, personnel, cost, and time on the risk more than ever. The most obvious issue in this paper is a tremendous difference between an importance of the financial risks and the other risks.

  5. Risk measures on networks and expected utility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cerqueti, Roy; Lupi, Claudio

    2016-01-01

    In reliability theory projects are usually evaluated in terms of their riskiness, and often decision under risk is intended as the one-shot-type binary choice of accepting or not accepting the risk. In this paper we elaborate on the concept of risk acceptance, and propose a theoretical framework based on network theory. In doing this, we deal with system reliability, where the interconnections among the random quantities involved in the decision process are explicitly taken into account. Furthermore, we explore the conditions to be satisfied for risk-acceptance criteria to be consistent with the axiomatization of standard expected utility theory within the network framework. In accordance with existing literature, we show that a risk evaluation criterion can be meaningful even if it is not consistent with the standard axiomatization of expected utility, once this is suitably reinterpreted in the light of networks. Finally, we provide some illustrative examples. - Highlights: • We discuss risk acceptance and theoretically develop this theme on the basis of network theory. • We propose an original framework for describing the algebraic structure of the set of the networks, when they are viewed as risks. • We introduce the risk measures on networks, which induce total orders on the set of networks. • We state conditions on the risk measures on networks to let the induced risk-acceptance criterion be consistent with a new formulation of the expected utility theory.

  6. Discrepancies between multicriteria decision analysis-based ranking and intuitive ranking for pharmaceutical benefit-risk profiles in a hypothetical setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoshikawa, K; Ono, S

    2017-02-01

    Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been generally considered a promising decision-making methodology for the assessment of drug benefit-risk profiles. There have been many discussions in both public and private sectors on its feasibility and applicability, but it has not been employed in official decision-makings. For the purpose of examining to what extent MCDA would reflect the first-hand, intuitive preference of evaluators in practical pharmaceutical assessments, we conducted a questionnaire survey involving the participation of employees of pharmaceutical companies. Showing profiles of the efficacy and safety of four hypothetical drugs, each respondent was asked to rank them following the standard MCDA process and then to rank them intuitively (i.e. without applying any analytical framework). These two approaches resulted in substantially different ranking patterns from the same individuals, and the concordance rate was surprisingly low (17%). Although many respondents intuitively showed a preference for mild, balanced risk-benefit profiles over profiles with a conspicuous advantage in either risk or benefit, the ranking orders based on MCDA scores did not reflect the intuitive preference. Observed discrepancies between the rankings seemed to be primarily attributed to the structural characteristics of MCDA, which assumes that evaluation on each benefit and risk component should have monotonic impact on final scores. It would be difficult for MCDA to reflect commonly observed non-monotonic preferences for risk and benefit profiles. Possible drawbacks of MCDA should be further investigated prior to the real-world application of its benefit-risk assessment. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. A Comparative Approach for Ranking Contaminated Sites Based on the Risk Assessment Paradigm Using Fuzzy PROMETHEE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kejiang; Kluck, Cheryl; Achari, Gopal

    2009-11-01

    A ranking system for contaminated sites based on comparative risk methodology using fuzzy Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) was developed in this article. It combines the concepts of fuzzy sets to represent uncertain site information with the PROMETHEE, a subgroup of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. Criteria are identified based on a combination of the attributes (toxicity, exposure, and receptors) associated with the potential human health and ecological risks posed by contaminated sites, chemical properties, site geology and hydrogeology and contaminant transport phenomena. Original site data are directly used avoiding the subjective assignment of scores to site attributes. When the input data are numeric and crisp the PROMETHEE method can be used. The Fuzzy PROMETHEE method is preferred when substantial uncertainties and subjectivities exist in site information. The PROMETHEE and fuzzy PROMETHEE methods are both used in this research to compare the sites. The case study shows that this methodology provides reasonable results.

  8. Ranking of psychosocial and traditional risk factors by importance for coronary heart disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schnohr, Peter; Marott, Jacob L; Kristensen, Tage S.

    2015-01-01

    .001] and systolic blood pressure (≥160 mmHg or blood pressure medication vs. never smoker; HR 1.74; 95% CI, 1.43-2.11; P ...-statistics and net reclassification improvement. During the follow-up, 1731 non-fatal and fatal coronary events were registered. In men, the highest ranking risk factors for coronary heart disease were vital exhaustion [high vs. low; hazard ratio (HR) 2.36; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.70-3.26; P

  9. Risk ranking of environmental contaminants in Xiaoqing River, a heavily polluted river along urbanizing Bohai Rim.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qifeng; Zhang, Yueqing; Lu, Yonglong; Wang, Pei; Suriyanarayanan, Sarvajayakesavalu; Meng, Jing; Zhou, Yunqiao; Liang, Ruoyu; Khan, Kifayatullah

    2018-08-01

    Xiaoqing River, located in the Laizhou Bay of Bohai Sea, is heavily polluted by various pollutants including heavy metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs), bisphenol A (BPA) and pharmaceutical and personal care products (PPCPs). The aim of this study is to identify the relative risks of such contaminants that currently affect the coastal ecosystem. The median and highest concentrations of PFAAs and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) were 3.23 μg L -1 and 325.28 μg L -1 , and 0.173 μg L -1 and 276.24 μg L -1 , respectively, which were ranked higher when compared with global level concentrations. To assess the relative risk levels of perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), PFOA, and other contaminants in the upstream and downstream of the Xiaoqing River and in its tributary, a risk ranking analysis was carried out. Copper (Cu), Zinc (Zn), and arsenic (As) showed the highest risk values in the Xiaoqing River, while the relative risks of PFOA and PFOS differed across the various segments. The risk ranking of PFOA was the second highest in the tributary and the fourth highest in the downstream portion of the river, whereas the PFOS was found to be the lowest in all the segments. Heavy metals and PFOA are the main chemicals that should be controlled in the Xiaoqing River. The results of the present study provide a better understanding of the potential ecological risks of the contaminants in Xiaoqing River. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Importance measures in risk-informed decision making: Ranking, optimisation and configuration control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaurio, Jussi K., E-mail: jussi.vaurio@pp1.inet.fi [Prometh Solutions, Hiihtaejaenkuja 3K, 06100 Porvoo (Finland)

    2011-11-15

    This paper describes roles, extensions and applications of importance measures of components and configurations for making risk-informed decisions relevant to system operations, maintenance and safety. Basic importance measures and their relationships are described for independent and mutually exclusive events and for groups of events associated with common cause failures. The roles of importances are described mainly in two groups of activities: (a) ranking safety significance of systems, structures, components and human actions for preventive safety assurance activities, and (b) making decisions about permissible permanent and temporary configurations and allowed configuration times for regulation, technical specifications and for on-line risk monitoring. Criticality importance and sums of criticalities turn out to be appropriate measures for ranking and optimization. Several advantages are pointed out and consistent ranking of pipe segments for in-service inspection is provided as an example. Risk increase factor and its generalization risk gain are most appropriately used to assess corrective priorities and acceptability of a situation when components are already failed or when planning to take one or more components out of service for maintenance. Precise definitions are introduced for multi-failure configurations and it is shown how they can be assessed under uncertainties, in particular when common cause failures or success states may be involved. A general weighted average method is compared to other candidate methods in benchmark cases. It is the preferable method for prediction when a momentary configuration is known or only partially known. Potential applications and optimization of allowed outage times are described. The results show how to generalize and apply various importance measures to ranking and optimization and how to manage configurations in uncertain multi-failure situations. - Highlights: > Rigorous methods developed for using importances

  11. Importance measures in risk-informed decision making: Ranking, optimisation and configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaurio, Jussi K.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes roles, extensions and applications of importance measures of components and configurations for making risk-informed decisions relevant to system operations, maintenance and safety. Basic importance measures and their relationships are described for independent and mutually exclusive events and for groups of events associated with common cause failures. The roles of importances are described mainly in two groups of activities: (a) ranking safety significance of systems, structures, components and human actions for preventive safety assurance activities, and (b) making decisions about permissible permanent and temporary configurations and allowed configuration times for regulation, technical specifications and for on-line risk monitoring. Criticality importance and sums of criticalities turn out to be appropriate measures for ranking and optimization. Several advantages are pointed out and consistent ranking of pipe segments for in-service inspection is provided as an example. Risk increase factor and its generalization risk gain are most appropriately used to assess corrective priorities and acceptability of a situation when components are already failed or when planning to take one or more components out of service for maintenance. Precise definitions are introduced for multi-failure configurations and it is shown how they can be assessed under uncertainties, in particular when common cause failures or success states may be involved. A general weighted average method is compared to other candidate methods in benchmark cases. It is the preferable method for prediction when a momentary configuration is known or only partially known. Potential applications and optimization of allowed outage times are described. The results show how to generalize and apply various importance measures to ranking and optimization and how to manage configurations in uncertain multi-failure situations. - Highlights: → Rigorous methods developed for using importances

  12. Occupational stress and cardiovascular risk factors in high-ranking government officials and office workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirmohammadi, Seyyed Jalil; Taheri, Mahmoud; Mehrparvar, Amir Houshang; Heydari, Mohammad; Saadati Kanafi, Ali; Mostaghaci, Mehrdad

    2014-08-01

    Cardiovascular diseases are among the most important sources of mortality and morbidity, and have a high disease burden. There are some major well-known risk factors, which contribute to the development of these diseases. Occupational stress is caused due to imbalance between job demands and individual's ability, and it has been implicated as an etiology for cardiovascular diseases. This study was conducted to evaluate the cardiovascular risk factors and different dimensions of occupational stress in high-ranking government officials, comparing an age and sex-matched group of office workers with them. We invited 90 high-ranking officials who managed the main governmental offices in a city, and 90 age and sex-matched office workers. The subjects were required to fill the occupational role questionnaire (Osipow) which evaluated their personal and medical history as well as occupational stress. Then, we performed physical examination and laboratory tests to check for cardiovascular risk factors. Finally, the frequency of cardiovascular risk factors and occupational stress of two groups were compared. High-ranking officials in our study had less work experience in their current jobs and smoked fewer pack-years of cigarette, but they had higher waist and hip circumference, higher triglyceride level, more stress from role overload and responsibility, and higher total stress score. Our group of office workers had more occupational stress because of role ambiguity and insufficiency, but their overall job stress was less than officials. The officials have higher scores in some dimensions of occupational stress and higher overall stress score. Some cardiovascular risk factors were also more frequent in managers.

  13. Ranking Businesses and Municipal Locations by Spatiotemporal Cardiac Arrest Risk to Guide Public Defibrillator Placement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Christopher L F; Brooks, Steven C; Morrison, Laurie J; Chan, Timothy C Y

    2017-03-21

    Efforts to guide automated external defibrillator placement for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) treatment have focused on identifying broadly defined location categories without considering hours of operation. Broad location categories may be composed of many businesses with varying accessibility. Identifying specific locations for automated external defibrillator deployment incorporating operating hours and time of OHCA occurrence may improve automated external defibrillator accessibility. We aim to identify specific businesses and municipal locations that maximize OHCA coverage on the basis of spatiotemporal assessment of OHCA risk in the immediate vicinity of franchise locations. This study was a retrospective population-based cohort study using data from the Toronto Regional RescuNET Epistry cardiac arrest database. We identified all nontraumatic public OHCAs occurring in Toronto, ON, Canada, from January 2007 through December 2015. We identified 41 unique businesses and municipal location types with ≥20 locations in Toronto from the YellowPages, Canadian Franchise Association, and the City of Toronto Open Data Portal. We obtained their geographic coordinates and hours of operation from Web sites, by phone, or in person. We determined the number of OHCAs that occurred within 100 m of each location when it was open (spatiotemporal coverage) for Toronto overall and downtown. The businesses and municipal locations were then ranked by spatiotemporal OHCA coverage. To evaluate temporal stability of the rankings, we calculated intraclass correlation of the annual coverage values. There were 2654 nontraumatic public OHCAs. Tim Hortons ranked first in Toronto, covering 286 OHCAs. Starbucks ranked first in downtown, covering 110 OHCAs. Coffee shops and bank machines from the 5 largest Canadian banks occupied 8 of the top 10 spots in both Toronto and downtown. The rankings exhibited high temporal stability with intraclass correlation values of 0.88 (95

  14. Ranking businesses and municipal locations by spatiotemporal cardiac arrest risk to guide public defibrillator placement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Christopher L. F.; Brooks, Steven C.; Morrison, Laurie J.; Chan, Timothy C.Y.

    2017-01-01

    Background Efforts to guide automated external defibrillator (AED) placement for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) treatment have focused on identifying broadly defined location categories without considering hours of operation. Broad location categories may be composed of many businesses with varying accessibility. Identifying specific locations for AED deployment incorporating operating hours and time of OHCA occurrence may improve AED accessibility. We aim to identify specific businesses and municipal locations that maximize OHCA coverage based on spatiotemporal assessment of OHCA risk in the immediate vicinity of franchise locations. Methods This study was a retrospective population-based cohort study using data from the Toronto Regional RescuNET Epistry cardiac arrest database. We identified all non-traumatic public OHCAs occurring in Toronto, Canada from Jan. 2007–Dec. 2015. We identified 41 unique businesses and municipal location types with 20 or more locations in Toronto from the YellowPages, Canadian Franchise Association, and the City of Toronto Open Data Portal. We obtained their geographic coordinates and hours of operation from websites, phone, or in-person. We determined the number of OHCAs that occurred within 100 m of each location when it was open (spatiotemporal coverage) for Toronto overall and downtown. The businesses and municipal locations were then ranked by spatiotemporal OHCA coverage. To evaluate temporal stability of the rankings, we calculated intra-class correlation (ICC) of the annual coverage values. Results There were 2,654 non-traumatic public OHCAs. Tim Hortons ranked first in Toronto covering 286 OHCAs. Starbucks ranked first in downtown covering 110 OHCAs. Coffee shops and bank machines from the five largest Canadian banks occupied eight of the top 10 spots in both Toronto and downtown. The rankings exhibited high temporal stability with ICC values of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.83–0.93) in Toronto and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.71–0.86) in

  15. Prudence, preapproval, risk, and utility accountability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This section discusses the inherent risk in utility compliance planning and some means of reducing this risk. The risk originates from the fact that a compliance plan is extremely complex and involves forecasting situations fifteen or twenty years into the future. Two additional uncertainties peculiar to CAAA compliance are that the increased demand for low-sulfur coal and other substitute fuels is expected to place an unanticipatable premium on them and that the price of future emissions allowances is unknown. The prudent investment test and the issue of preapproval are also discussed. 14 refs

  16. Validation of a model for ranking aquaculture facilities for risk-based disease surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diserens, Nicolas; Falzon, Laura Cristina; von Siebenthal, Beat; Schüpbach-Regula, Gertraud; Wahli, Thomas

    2017-09-15

    A semi-quantitative model for risk ranking of aquaculture facilities in Switzerland with regard to the introduction and spread of Viral Haemorrhagic Septicaemia (VHS) and Infectious Haematopoietic Necrosis (IHN) was developed in a previous study (Diserens et al., 2013). The objective of the present study was to validate this model using data collected during field visits on aquaculture sites in four Swiss cantons compared to data collected through a questionnaire in the previous study. A discrepancy between the values obtained with the two different methods was found in 32.8% of the parameters, resulting in a significant difference (pranking of Swiss aquaculture facilities according to their risk of getting infected with or spreading of VHS and IHN, as the five facilities that tested positive for these diseases in the last ten years were ranked as medium or high risk. Moreover, because the seven fish farms that were infected with Infectious Pancreatic Necrosis (IPN) during the same period also belonged to the risk categories medium and high, the classification appeared to correlate with the occurrence of this third viral fish disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Risks associated with utilization of radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuoka, Satoshi; Kumazawa, Shigeru; Aoki, Yoshiro; Nakamura, Yuji; Takeda, Atsuhiko; Kusama, Tomoko; Inaba, Jiro; Tanaka, Yasumasa.

    1993-01-01

    When mankind decides action, the conveniences and the risks obtained by the action are weighed up. When socially important judgement is done, the logical discussion based on objective data is indispensable. The utilization of radiation spread from industrial circles to general public, accordingly the circumstances changed from the recognition of its risks by professionals to that by general public. The radiation exposure dose of public has increased rapidly by medical treatment. The global radioactivity contamination accompanying nuclear explosion experiment and the Chernobyl accident raised the psychological risk recognition of public. Now, the fear of the potential radioactivity which may be released from nuclear power plants and nuclear fuel cycle facilities expanded. The radiation exposure due to its utilization in recent years is mostly at the level below natural radiation. The acute radiation syndrome by whole body exposure is shown, and the effect is probabilistic. The evaluation of the risks due to radiation in the early effect, the hereditary effect and the delayed effect including canceration is explained. The risks in general human activities, the concept of risks in radiation protection, the effect of Chernobyl accident and the perception of general public on radiation risks are reported. (K.I.)

  18. Defining utility trace substance emissions and risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torrens, I.M.

    1993-01-01

    An update is presented on the activities of EPRI and other organizations, including DOE, aimed at improving the quality of available information on utility trace element emissions, control technologies and risks. Because of these efforts, the state of knowledge is advancing rapidly. The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments aim to reduce emissions of 189 substances that they designate as hazardous air pollutants - commonly called air toxics. The more neutral term open-quotes trace substancesclose quotes is used in this paper, since most are emitted in extremely low concentrations from utility stacks. The degree of toxicity or hazard at these concentrations is subject to considerable uncertainty, and clarifying this is one of the objectives of the work in progress. The most clear and urgent need emanating from the CAAA has been to obtain reliable information on which of the substances on the CAAA list are emitted from different types of power plants - in what amounts, what risks they pose, how much is removed by today's pollution control equipment. EPRI is addressing the issue on several fronts, e.g.; developing a data base and tools that will enable utilities to estimate emissions levels from their power facilities, given the types of fuels burned and plant characteristics; developing a better understanding of how emissions are transported and transformed before they encounter humans and ecological systems; and assessing the risk to public health and the environment posed by utility releases of these substances

  19. Identifying drug risk perceptions in Danish youths: Ranking exercises in focus groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Demant, Jakob; Ravn, Signe

    2010-01-01

    Abstract: Background: This paper develops an analytical approach for understanding the perceptions of risks associated with drugs among youths in general. These perceptions are central in order to understand how certain drugs become popular, leading to increasing prevalence of use, while others do...... not. As such, this approach can become an efficient policy tool. Methods: Focus groups are used to investigate risk perceptions. We develop a specific methodology that combines a ranking exercise with discourse theory as an analytical approach. This methodology produces detailed information...... and provides a relatively efficient way of investigating normative risk perceptions at a national or subcultural level. The paper develops this methodology in relation to a Danish case with 12 focus group interviews with youths aged from 17 to 22. Results: The analysis identifies five discourses articulated...

  20. Identifying drug risk perceptions in Danish youths: Ranking exercises in focus groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Demant, Jakob Johan; Ravn, Signe

    2010-01-01

    not. As such, this approach can become an efficient policy tool. Methods: Focus groups are used to investigate risk perceptions. We develop a specific methodology that combines a ranking exercise with discourse theory as an analytical approach. This methodology produces detailed information......Abstract: Background: This paper develops an analytical approach for understanding the perceptions of risks associated with drugs among youths in general. These perceptions are central in order to understand how certain drugs become popular, leading to increasing prevalence of use, while others do...... and provides a relatively efficient way of investigating normative risk perceptions at a national or subcultural level. The paper develops this methodology in relation to a Danish case with 12 focus group interviews with youths aged from 17 to 22. Results: The analysis identifies five discourses articulated...

  1. An empirical study for ranking risk factors using linear assignment: A case study of road construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Foroughi

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Road construction projects are considered as the most important governmental issues since there are normally heavy investments required in such projects. There is also shortage of financial resources in governmental budget, which makes the asset allocation more challenging. One primary step in reducing the cost is to determine different risks associated with execution of such project activities. In this study, we present some important risk factors associated with road construction in two levels for a real-world case study of rail-road industry located between two cities of Esfahan and Deligan. The first group of risk factors includes the probability and the effects for various attributes including cost, time, quality and performance. The second group of risk factors includes socio-economical factors as well as political and managerial aspects. The study finds 21 main risk factors as well as 193 sub risk factors. The factors are ranked using groups decision-making method called linear assignment. The preliminary results indicate that the road construction projects could finish faster with better outcome should we carefully consider risk factors and attempt to reduce their impacts.

  2. Incorporating linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information in a risk-based approach for ranking contaminated sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kejiang; Achari, Gopal; Pei, Yuansheng

    2010-10-01

    Different types of uncertain information-linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic-exist in site characterization. Their representation and propagation significantly influence the management of contaminated sites. In the absence of a framework with which to properly represent and integrate these quantitative and qualitative inputs together, decision makers cannot fully take advantage of the available and necessary information to identify all the plausible alternatives. A systematic methodology was developed in the present work to incorporate linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information into the Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE), a subgroup of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods for ranking contaminated sites. The identification of criteria based on the paradigm of comparative risk assessment provides a rationale for risk-based prioritization. Uncertain linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information identified in characterizing contaminated sites can be properly represented as numerical values, intervals, probability distributions, and fuzzy sets or possibility distributions, and linguistic variables according to their nature. These different kinds of representation are first transformed into a 2-tuple linguistic representation domain. The propagation of hybrid uncertainties is then carried out in the same domain. This methodology can use the original site information directly as much as possible. The case study shows that this systematic methodology provides more reasonable results. © 2010 SETAC.

  3. Risk Aversion and Expected-Utility Theory: A Calibration Theorem.

    OpenAIRE

    Matthew Rabin.

    2000-01-01

    Within the expected-utility framework, the only explanation for risk aversion is that the utility function for wealth is concave: A person has lower marginal utility for additional wealth when she is wealthy than when she is poor. This paper provides a theorem showing that expected-utility theory is an utterly implausible explanation for appreciable risk aversion over modest stakes: Within expected-utility theory, for any concave utility function, even very little risk aversion over modest st...

  4. Ranking Tool Created for Medicinal Plants at Risk of Being Overharvested in the Wild

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa Marie Castle

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available We developed an adaptable, transparent tool that can be used to quantify and compare vulnerability to overharvest for wild collected medicinal plants. Subsequently, we are creating a list of the most threatened medicinal plants in temperate North America. The new tool scores species according to their life history, the effects of harvest, their abundance and range, habitat, and demand. The resulting rankings, based on explicit criteria rather than expert opinion, will make it easier to discuss areas of vulnerability and set conservation priorities. Here we present scores for 40 species assessed using the At-Risk Tool and discuss the traits that led to different scores for six example species: echinacea (Echinacea angustifolia DC. Asteraceae, peyote (Lophophora williamsii (Lem. ex Salm-Dyck J.M. Coult. Cactaceae, sandalwood (Santalum spp. L. Santalaceae, stinging nettle (Urtica dioica L. Urticaceae, American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L. Araliaceae and mayapple (Podophyllum peltatum L. Berberidaceae.

  5. A Simple Model to Rank Shellfish Farming Areas Based on the Risk of Disease Introduction and Spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thrush, M A; Pearce, F M; Gubbins, M J; Oidtmann, B C; Peeler, E J

    2017-08-01

    The European Union Council Directive 2006/88/EC requires that risk-based surveillance (RBS) for listed aquatic animal diseases is applied to all aquaculture production businesses. The principle behind this is the efficient use of resources directed towards high-risk farm categories, animal types and geographic areas. To achieve this requirement, fish and shellfish farms must be ranked according to their risk of disease introduction and spread. We present a method to risk rank shellfish farming areas based on the risk of disease introduction and spread and demonstrate how the approach was applied in 45 shellfish farming areas in England and Wales. Ten parameters were used to inform the risk model, which were grouped into four risk themes based on related pathways for transmission of pathogens: (i) live animal movement, (ii) transmission via water, (iii) short distance mechanical spread (birds) and (iv) long distance mechanical spread (vessels). Weights (informed by expert knowledge) were applied both to individual parameters and to risk themes for introduction and spread to reflect their relative importance. A spreadsheet model was developed to determine quantitative scores for the risk of pathogen introduction and risk of pathogen spread for each shellfish farming area. These scores were used to independently rank areas for risk of introduction and for risk of spread. Thresholds were set to establish risk categories (low, medium and high) for introduction and spread based on risk scores. Risk categories for introduction and spread for each area were combined to provide overall risk categories to inform a risk-based surveillance programme directed at the area level. Applying the combined risk category designation framework for risk of introduction and spread suggested by European Commission guidance for risk-based surveillance, 4, 10 and 31 areas were classified as high, medium and low risk, respectively. © 2016 Crown copyright.

  6. Resolving inconsistencies in utility measurement under risk: Tests of generalizations of expected utility

    OpenAIRE

    Han Bleichrodt; José María Abellán-Perpiñan; JoséLuis Pinto; Ildefonso Méndez-Martínez

    2005-01-01

    This paper explores inconsistencies that occur in utility measurement under risk when expected utility theory is assumed and the contribution that prospect theory and some other generalizations of expected utility can make to the resolution of these inconsistencies. We used five methods to measure utilities under risk and found clear violations of expected utility. Of the theories studied, prospect theory was the most consistent with our data. The main improvement of prospect theory over expe...

  7. Risk ranking of LANL nuclear material storage containers for repackaging prioritization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Paul H; Jordan, Hans; Hoffman, Jenifer A; Eller, P Gary; Balkey, Simon

    2007-05-01

    Safe handling and storage of nuclear material at U.S. Department of Energy facilities relies on the use of robust containers to prevent container breaches and subsequent worker contamination and uptake. The U.S. Department of Energy has no uniform requirements for packaging and storage of nuclear materials other than those declared excess and packaged to DOE-STD-3013-2000. This report describes a methodology for prioritizing a large inventory of nuclear material containers so that the highest risk containers are repackaged first. The methodology utilizes expert judgment to assign respirable fractions and reactivity factors to accountable levels of nuclear material at Los Alamos National Laboratory. A relative risk factor is assigned to each nuclear material container based on a calculated dose to a worker due to a failed container barrier and a calculated probability of container failure based on material reactivity and container age. This risk-based methodology is being applied at LANL to repackage the highest risk materials first and, thus, accelerate the reduction of risk to nuclear material handlers.

  8. Risk measurement with equivalent utility principles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Denuit, M.; Dhaene, J.; Goovaerts, M.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.

    2006-01-01

    Risk measures have been studied for several decades in the actuarial literature, where they appeared under the guise of premium calculation principles. Risk measures and properties that risk measures should satisfy have recently received considerable attention in the financial mathematics

  9. Development of a risk-ranking framework to evaluate potential high-threat microorganisms, toxins, and chemicals in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newsome, R; Tran, N; Paoli, G M; Jaykus, L A; Tompkin, B; Miliotis, M; Ruthman, T; Hartnett, E; Busta, F F; Petersen, B; Shank, F; McEntire, J; Hotchkiss, J; Wagner, M; Schaffner, D W

    2009-03-01

    Through a cooperative agreement with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the Institute of Food Technologists developed a risk-ranking framework prototype to enable comparison of microbiological and chemical hazards in foods and to assist policy makers, risk managers, risk analysts, and others in determining the relative public health impact of specific hazard-food combinations. The prototype is a bottom-up system based on assumptions that incorporate expert opinion/insight with a number of exposure and hazard-related risk criteria variables, which are propagated forward with food intake data to produce risk-ranking determinations. The prototype produces a semi-quantitative comparative assessment of food safety hazards and the impacts of hazard control measures. For a specific hazard-food combination the prototype can produce a single metric: a final risk value expressed as annual pseudo-disability adjusted life years (pDALY). The pDALY is a harmonization of the very different dose-response relationships observed for chemicals and microbes. The prototype was developed on 2 platforms, a web-based user interface and an Analytica(R) model (Lumina Decision Systems, Los Gatos, Calif., U.S.A.). Comprising visual basic language, the web-based platform facilitates data input and allows use concurrently from multiple locations. The Analytica model facilitates visualization of the logic flow, interrelationship of input and output variables, and calculations/algorithms comprising the prototype. A variety of sortable risk-ranking reports and summary information can be generated for hazard-food pairs, showing hazard and dose-response assumptions and data, per capita consumption by population group, and annual p-DALY.

  10. A statistical approach to rank multiple priorities in Environmental Epidemiology: an example from high-risk areas in Sardinia, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dolores Catelan

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available In Environmental Epidemiology, long lists of relative risk estimates from exposed populations are compared to a reference to scrutinize the dataset for extremes. Here, inference on disease profiles for given areas, or for fixed disease population signatures, are of interest and summaries can be obtained averaging over areas or diseases. We have developed a multivariate hierarchical Bayesian approach to estimate posterior rank distributions and we show how to produce league tables of ranks with credibility intervals useful to address the above mentioned inferential problems. Applying the procedure to a real dataset from the report “Environment and Health in Sardinia (Italy” we selected 18 areas characterized by high environmental pressure for industrial, mining or military activities investigated for 29 causes of deaths among male residents. Ranking diseases highlighted the increased burdens of neoplastic (cancerous, and non-neoplastic respiratory diseases in the heavily polluted area of Portoscuso. The averaged ranks by disease over areas showed lung cancer among the three highest positions.

  11. A Relative Ranking Approach for Nano-Enabled Applications to Improve Risk-Based Decision Making: A Case Study of Army Materiel

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-24

    accidental expo- sures to carbon nanotubes and copper flakes incorporated into energy and obscurant materiel by Army workers rank highest relative to...that inhalation from accidental exposures to carbon nanotubes and copper flakes incorporated into energy and obscurant materiel by Army workers rank... copper (Cu), and titanium (Ti) flakes used in smokes and obscurants ranked the highest on the risk scale for sce- narios primarily involving accidental

  12. EFSA BIOHAZ Panel (EFSA Panel on Biological Hazards), 2015. Scientific Opinion on the development of a risk ranking toolbox for the EFSA BIOHAZ Panel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Tine

    -down tool to rank pathogens. Uncertainty needs to be addressed and communicated to decision makers and stakeholders as one of the outcomes of the risk ranking process. Uncertainty and variability can be represented by means of probability distributions. Techniques such as the NUSAP (numeral, unit, spread...

  13. Critical review of methodology and application of risk ranking for prioritisation of food and feed related issues, on the basis of the size of anticipated health impact

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H. J.; van Asselt, E. D.; Raley, M.

    , an overarching framework was developed for selection of the appropriate method(s) that could be used for risk ranking of feed and food related hazards, on the basis of human health impact. This framework has the format of a decision tool, with which – given the characteristics of the risk ranking question...... at hand - the most appropriate method(s) can be selected. Application of this overall framework to several case studies showed it can be a useful tool for risk managers/assessors to select the most suitable method for risk ranking of feed/food and diet related hazards, on the basis of expected human......This study aimed to critically review methodologies for ranking of risks related to feed/food safety and nutritional hazards, on the basis of their anticipated human health impact. An extensive systematic literature review was performed to identify and characterize the available methodologies...

  14. Subjective expected utility with non-increasing risk aversion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.

    1989-01-01

    It is shown that assumptions about risk aversion, usually studied under the presupposition of expected utility maximization, have a surprising extra merit at an earlier stage of the measurement work: together with the sure-thing principle, these assumptions imply subjective expected utility

  15. Rank Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershenson, Carlos

    Studies of rank distributions have been popular for decades, especially since the work of Zipf. For example, if we rank words of a given language by use frequency (most used word in English is 'the', rank 1; second most common word is 'of', rank 2), the distribution can be approximated roughly with a power law. The same applies for cities (most populated city in a country ranks first), earthquakes, metabolism, the Internet, and dozens of other phenomena. We recently proposed ``rank diversity'' to measure how ranks change in time, using the Google Books Ngram dataset. Studying six languages between 1800 and 2009, we found that the rank diversity curves of languages are universal, adjusted with a sigmoid on log-normal scale. We are studying several other datasets (sports, economies, social systems, urban systems, earthquakes, artificial life). Rank diversity seems to be universal, independently of the shape of the rank distribution. I will present our work in progress towards a general description of the features of rank change in time, along with simple models which reproduce it

  16. Use of mechanistic simulations as a quantitative risk-ranking tool within the quality by design framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocker, Elena; Toschkoff, Gregor; Sacher, Stephan; Khinast, Johannes G

    2014-11-20

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the use of computer simulations for generating quantitative knowledge as a basis for risk ranking and mechanistic process understanding, as required by ICH Q9 on quality risk management systems. In this specific publication, the main focus is the demonstration of a risk assessment workflow, including a computer simulation for the generation of mechanistic understanding of active tablet coating in a pan coater. Process parameter screening studies are statistically planned under consideration of impacts on a potentially critical quality attribute, i.e., coating mass uniformity. Based on computer simulation data the process failure mode and effects analysis of the risk factors is performed. This results in a quantitative criticality assessment of process parameters and the risk priority evaluation of failure modes. The factor for a quantitative reassessment of the criticality and risk priority is the coefficient of variation, which represents the coating mass uniformity. The major conclusion drawn from this work is a successful demonstration of the integration of computer simulation in the risk management workflow leading to an objective and quantitative risk assessment. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  17. FDA-iRISK--a comparative risk assessment system for evaluating and ranking food-hazard pairs: case studies on microbial hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yuhuan; Dennis, Sherri B; Hartnett, Emma; Paoli, Greg; Pouillot, Régis; Ruthman, Todd; Wilson, Margaret

    2013-03-01

    Stakeholders in the system of food safety, in particular federal agencies, need evidence-based, transparent, and rigorous approaches to estimate and compare the risk of foodborne illness from microbial and chemical hazards and the public health impact of interventions. FDA-iRISK (referred to here as iRISK), a Web-based quantitative risk assessment system, was developed to meet this need. The modeling tool enables users to assess, compare, and rank the risks posed by multiple food-hazard pairs at all stages of the food supply system, from primary production, through manufacturing and processing, to retail distribution and, ultimately, to the consumer. Using standard data entry templates, built-in mathematical functions, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, iRISK integrates data and assumptions from seven components: the food, the hazard, the population of consumers, process models describing the introduction and fate of the hazard up to the point of consumption, consumption patterns, dose-response curves, and health effects. Beyond risk ranking, iRISK enables users to estimate and compare the impact of interventions and control measures on public health risk. iRISK provides estimates of the impact of proposed interventions in various ways, including changes in the mean risk of illness and burden of disease metrics, such as losses in disability-adjusted life years. Case studies for Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella were developed to demonstrate the application of iRISK for the estimation of risks and the impact of interventions for microbial hazards. iRISK was made available to the public at http://irisk.foodrisk.org in October 2012.

  18. Ranking of fungicides according to risk assessments for health and environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Lise Nistrup; Ørum, Jens Erik

    2014-01-01

    PL varies for fungicide standard rates by a factor of 10. Products including epoxiconazole generally have higher PL's due to the human health profile of this active. PL's per area, crop or product will supplement the previous pesticide statistics based on treatment frequency index (TFI). PL has also......Denmark has introduced a new indicator for ranking the potential impact of pesticides on health and environment. The new Pesticide Load (PL) makes it possible for farmers to choose the least harmful fungicides and substitute between products which have an equally good efficacy profile. In practice...... been introduced as the basis for a new tax system for pesticides from 1 July 2013, replacing the old value based tax. The Government has asked for a 40% reduction in the PL per ha by 2015, based on substitutions to less harmfull products. As certain pesticide groups will be favoured by the new tax...

  19. Risk management strategies utilized by small scale poultry farmers ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Birds can only tolerate narrow temperature changes; therefore, poultry flocks are vulnerable to climate induced risk. This study investigated risk management strategies utilized by small scale poultry farmers in Oyo state. A total of 118 respondents were sampled using multi stage sampling procedure. Interview schedule was ...

  20. Building uncertainty into cost-effectiveness rankings: portfolio risk-return tradeoffs and implications for decision rules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, B J; Sculpher, M J

    2000-05-01

    Current principles of cost-effectiveness analysis emphasize the rank ordering of programs by expected economic return (eg, quality-adjusted life-years gained per dollar expended). This criterion ignores the variance associated with the cost-effectiveness of a program, yet variance is a common measure of risk when financial investment options are appraised. Variation in health care program return is likely to be a criterion of program selection for health care managers with fixed budgets and outcome performance targets. Characterizing health care resource allocation as a risky investment problem, we show how concepts of portfolio analysis from financial economics can be adopted as a conceptual framework for presenting cost-effectiveness data from multiple programs as mean-variance data. Two specific propositions emerge: (1) the current convention of ranking programs by expected return is a special case of the portfolio selection problem in which the decision maker is assumed to be indifferent to risk, and (2) for risk-averse decision makers, the degree of joint risk or covariation in cost-effectiveness between programs will create incentives to diversify an investment portfolio. The conventional normative assumption of risk neutrality for social-level public investment decisions does not apply to a large number of health care resource allocation decisions in which health care managers seek to maximize returns subject to budget constraints and performance targets. Portfolio theory offers a useful framework for studying mean-variance tradeoffs in cost-effectiveness and offers some positive predictions (and explanations) of actual decision making in the health care sector.

  1. A new era in nuclear energy science. When will radiation application receive citizenship ranking along with energy utilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tabata, Yoneho; Tagawa, Seiichi; Saito, Naoki; Fujii, Yasuhiko

    2005-01-01

    Japan has been obtaining definite results in these decades in both fields of nuclear power generation (energy utilization) and radiation application thus contributing to a sustainable development of the world. The present special issue of 'Atom Eye' introduces (1) Japanese achievements in cooperative relationships with developing countries in the field of radiation applications, (2) history of research and development of radiation-utilization techniques in Japan, (3) present status of quantum-beam applications in life-science, medial application, and nano-technology, etc, (4) applications of high-intensity neutron source, (5) cancer therapy using high-energy heavy-ion beams, (6) radiation sterilizations, (7) radiation mutations, (8) three interviewer's reports visiting several research institutes of radiation applications in Japan, and introduction of (9) a bencher enterprise and also (10) an accelerator business. (S. Ohno)

  2. Screening and ranking framework (SRF) for geologic CO2 storagesite selection on the basis of HSE risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oldenburg, Curtis M.

    2006-11-27

    A screening and ranking framework (SRF) has been developedto evaluate potential geologic carbon dioxide (CO2) storage sites on thebasis of health, safety, and environmental (HSE) risk arising from CO2leakage. The approach is based on the assumption that CO2 leakage risk isdependent on three basic characteristics of a geologic CO2 storage site:(1) the potential for primary containment by the target formation; (2)the potential for secondary containment if the primary formation leaks;and (3) the potential for attenuation and dispersion of leaking CO2 ifthe primary formation leaks and secondary containment fails. Theframework is implemented in a spreadsheet in which users enter numericalscores representing expert opinions or published information along withestimates of uncertainty. Applications to three sites in Californiademonstrate the approach. Refinements and extensions are possible throughthe use of more detailed data or model results in place of propertyproxies.

  3. Risk-based ranking of dominant contributors to maritime pollution events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wheeler, T.A.

    1993-01-01

    This report describes a conceptual approach for identifying dominant contributors to risk from maritime shipping of hazardous materials. Maritime transportation accidents are relatively common occurrences compared to more frequently analyzed contributors to public risk. Yet research on maritime safety and pollution incidents has not been guided by a systematic, risk-based approach. Maritime shipping accidents can be analyzed using event trees to group the accidents into 'bins,' or groups, of similar characteristics such as type of cargo, location of accident (e.g., harbor, inland waterway), type of accident (e.g., fire, collision, grounding), and size of release. The importance of specific types of events to each accident bin can be quantified. Then the overall importance of accident events to risk can be estimated by weighting the events' individual bin importance measures by the risk associated with each accident bin. 4 refs., 3 figs., 6 tabs

  4. Pro et con analysis of existing ranking and occupational risk assessment concepts for Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Alstrup-Jensen, Keld; Baun, Anders

    2013-01-01

    There is an urgent need for adaptive, transparent, easy comprehensible and communicational and yet robust scientific methods, approaches and frameworks to evaluate the potential of exposure, hazard and risk related to the production and application of nanomaterials. A number of alternatives...... and discuss various elements of the tools (input data requirements, risk evaluation and risk handling) as well as pros and cons. We find that most of the tools provide a transparent and comprehensible approach and a few include risk management and communication going well beyond what is normally considered...... in traditional risk assessment. Most of the concepts available today however, is that their input data requirements are fairly high and some of the scientific information needed in order to apply them is inconclusive at the moment or non-existing. Some of the concepts are furthermore based on purely theoretical...

  5. Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.

  6. Stochastic optimization under risk constraint and utility functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seck, B.

    2008-09-01

    In a context of concurrence and emergence of energy markets, the production of electricity is affected by the new sources of risks which are the price variations on the energy markets. These new sources of risks generate a new risk: the market risk. In this research, the author explores the possibility of introducing constraints, expressed by measurements of risk, into the process of optimization of electricity production when financial contracts are signed on the energy market. The author makes the distinction between the engineering approach (taking the risk into account by risk measurements) and the economist approach (taking the risk into account by utility functions). After an overview of these both approaches in a static framework, he gives an economical formulation (a Maccheroni type one) for a static optimization problem under a risk constraint when the risk measurement is written under the form of an expected infimum like the variance, the 'conditional value at risk', and so on. The obtained results are then extended to a dynamic optimization framework under risk constraints. A numerical application of this approach is presented to solve a problem of electricity production management under a constraint of 'conditional value at risk' on a middle term

  7. A Method on the Item Investment Risk Interval Decision-making of Processing Ranking Style

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Li-wen

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, on the bases of the defeot of riskful type and indefinite type decisions, the concept of the type of item investment probability scheduling decision is given, and a linear programming model and its solution are made out. The feasibility of probability scheduling type item investment plan is studied by applying the quality of interval arithmetic.

  8. Ranking malaria risk factors to guide malaria control efforts in African highlands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natacha Protopopoff

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Malaria is re-emerging in most of the African highlands exposing the non immune population to deadly epidemics. A better understanding of the factors impacting transmission in the highlands is crucial to improve well targeted malaria control strategies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A conceptual model of potential malaria risk factors in the highlands was built based on the available literature. Furthermore, the relative importance of these factors on malaria can be estimated through "classification and regression trees", an unexploited statistical method in the malaria field. This CART method was used to analyse the malaria risk factors in the Burundi highlands. The results showed that Anopheles density was the best predictor for high malaria prevalence. Then lower rainfall, no vector control, higher minimum temperature and houses near breeding sites were associated by order of importance to higher Anopheles density. CONCLUSIONS: In Burundi highlands monitoring Anopheles densities when rainfall is low may be able to predict epidemics. The conceptual model combined with the CART analysis is a decision support tool that could provide an important contribution toward the prevention and control of malaria by identifying major risk factors.

  9. Ranking malaria risk factors to guide malaria control efforts in African highlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Protopopoff, Natacha; Van Bortel, Wim; Speybroeck, Niko; Van Geertruyden, Jean-Pierre; Baza, Dismas; D'Alessandro, Umberto; Coosemans, Marc

    2009-11-25

    Malaria is re-emerging in most of the African highlands exposing the non immune population to deadly epidemics. A better understanding of the factors impacting transmission in the highlands is crucial to improve well targeted malaria control strategies. A conceptual model of potential malaria risk factors in the highlands was built based on the available literature. Furthermore, the relative importance of these factors on malaria can be estimated through "classification and regression trees", an unexploited statistical method in the malaria field. This CART method was used to analyse the malaria risk factors in the Burundi highlands. The results showed that Anopheles density was the best predictor for high malaria prevalence. Then lower rainfall, no vector control, higher minimum temperature and houses near breeding sites were associated by order of importance to higher Anopheles density. In Burundi highlands monitoring Anopheles densities when rainfall is low may be able to predict epidemics. The conceptual model combined with the CART analysis is a decision support tool that could provide an important contribution toward the prevention and control of malaria by identifying major risk factors.

  10. Disentangling the effects of forage, social rank, and risk on movement autocorrelation of elephants using Fourier and wavelet analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittemyer, George; Polansky, Leo; Douglas-Hamilton, Iain; Getz, Wayne M

    2008-12-09

    The internal state of an individual-as it relates to thirst, hunger, fear, or reproductive drive-can be inferred by referencing points on its movement path to external environmental and sociological variables. Using time-series approaches to characterize autocorrelative properties of step-length movements collated every 3 h for seven free-ranging African elephants, we examined the influence of social rank, predation risk, and seasonal variation in resource abundance on periodic properties of movement. The frequency domain methods of Fourier and wavelet analyses provide compact summaries of temporal autocorrelation and show both strong diurnal and seasonal based periodicities in the step-length time series. This autocorrelation is weaker during the wet season, indicating random movements are more common when ecological conditions are good. Periodograms of socially dominant individuals are consistent across seasons, whereas subordinate individuals show distinct differences diverging from that of dominants during the dry season. We link temporally localized statistical properties of movement to landscape features and find that diurnal movement correlation is more common within protected wildlife areas, and multiday movement correlations found among lower ranked individuals are typically outside of protected areas where predation risks are greatest. A frequency-related spatial analysis of movement-step lengths reveal that rest cycles related to the spatial distribution of critical resources (i.e., forage and water) are responsible for creating the observed patterns. Our approach generates unique information regarding the spatial-temporal interplay between environmental and individual characteristics, providing an original approach for understanding the movement ecology of individual animals and the spatial organization of animal populations.

  11. Assessing safety risk in electricity distribution processes using ET & BA improved technique and its ranking by VIKOR and TOPSIS models in fuzzy environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Rahmani

    2016-04-01

      Conclusion: The height and electricity are of the main causes of accidents in electricity transmission and distribution industry which caused the overhead power networks to be ranked as high risk. Application of decision-making models in fuzzy environment minimizes the judgment of assessors in the risk assessment process.

  12. U.S. Natural Gas Storage Risk-Based Ranking Methodology and Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Folga, Steve [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Portante, Edgar [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Shamsuddin, Shabbir [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Tompkins, Angeli [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Talaber, Leah [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); McLamore, Mike [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Kavicky, Jim [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Conzelmann, Guenter [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Levin, Todd [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-10-01

    This report summarizes the methodology and models developed to assess the risk to energy delivery from the potential loss of underground gas storage (UGS) facilities located within the United States. The U.S. has a total of 418 existing storage fields, of which 390 are currently active. The models estimate the impacts of a disruption of each of the active UGS facilities on their owners/operators, including (1) local distribution companies (LDCs), (2) directly connected transporting pipelines and thus on the customers in downstream States, and (3) third-party entities and thus on contracted customers expecting the gas shipment. Impacts are measured across all natural gas customer classes. For the electric sector, impacts are quantified in terms of natural gas-fired electric generation capacity potentially affected from the loss of a UGS facility. For the purpose of calculating the overall supply risk, the overall consequence of the disruption of an UGS facility across all customer classes is expressed in terms of the number of expected equivalent residential customer outages per year, which combines the unit business interruption cost per customer class and the estimated number of affected natural gas customers with estimated probabilities of UGS disruptions. All models and analyses are based on publicly available data. The report presents a set of findings and recommendations in terms of data, further analyses, regulatory requirements and standards, and needs to improve gas/electric industry coordination for electric reliability.

  13. Feasibility of developing risk-based rankings of pressure boundary systems for inservice inspection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vo, T.V.; Smith, B.W.; Simonen, F.A.; Gore, B.F.

    1994-08-01

    The goals of the Evaluation and Improvement of Non-destructive Examination Reliability for the In-service Inspection of Light Water Reactors Program sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission at Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) are to (1) assess current ISI techniques and requirements for all pressure boundary systems and components, (2) determine if improvements to the requirements are needed, and (3) if necessary, develop recommendations for revising the applicable ASME Codes and regulatory requirements. In evaluating approaches that could be used to provide a technical basis for improved inservice inspection plans, PNL has developed and applied a method that uses results of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to establish piping system ISI requirements. In the PNL program, the feasibility of generic ISI requirements is being addressed in two phases. Phase I involves identifying and prioritizing the systems most relevant to plant safety. The results of these evaluations will be later consolidated into requirements for comprehensive inservice inspection of nuclear power plant components that will be developed in Phase II. This report presents Phase I evaluations for eight selected plants and attempts to compare these PRA-based inspection priorities with current ASME Section XI requirements for Class 1, 2 and 3 systems. These results show that there are generic insights that can be extrapolated from the selected plants to specific classes of light water reactors.

  14. Feasibility of developing risk-based rankings of pressure boundary systems for inservice inspection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vo, T.V.; Smith, B.W.; Simonen, F.A.; Gore, B.F.

    1994-08-01

    The goals of the Evaluation and Improvement of Non-destructive Examination Reliability for the In-service Inspection of Light Water Reactors Program sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission at Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) are to (1) assess current ISI techniques and requirements for all pressure boundary systems and components, (2) determine if improvements to the requirements are needed, and (3) if necessary, develop recommendations for revising the applicable ASME Codes and regulatory requirements. In evaluating approaches that could be used to provide a technical basis for improved inservice inspection plans, PNL has developed and applied a method that uses results of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to establish piping system ISI requirements. In the PNL program, the feasibility of generic ISI requirements is being addressed in two phases. Phase I involves identifying and prioritizing the systems most relevant to plant safety. The results of these evaluations will be later consolidated into requirements for comprehensive inservice inspection of nuclear power plant components that will be developed in Phase II. This report presents Phase I evaluations for eight selected plants and attempts to compare these PRA-based inspection priorities with current ASME Section XI requirements for Class 1, 2 and 3 systems. These results show that there are generic insights that can be extrapolated from the selected plants to specific classes of light water reactors

  15. On the ranking of chemicals based on their PBT characteristics: comparison of different ranking methodologies using selected POPs as an illustrative example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sailaukhanuly, Yerbolat; Zhakupbekova, Arai; Amutova, Farida; Carlsen, Lars

    2013-01-01

    Knowledge of the environmental behavior of chemicals is a fundamental part of the risk assessment process. The present paper discusses various methods of ranking of a series of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) according to the persistence, bioaccumulation and toxicity (PBT) characteristics. Traditionally ranking has been done as an absolute (total) ranking applying various multicriteria data analysis methods like simple additive ranking (SAR) or various utility functions (UFs) based rankings. An attractive alternative to these ranking methodologies appears to be partial order ranking (POR). The present paper compares different ranking methods like SAR, UF and POR. Significant discrepancies between the rankings are noted and it is concluded that partial order ranking, as a method without any pre-assumptions concerning possible relation between the single parameters, appears as the most attractive ranking methodology. In addition to the initial ranking partial order methodology offers a wide variety of analytical tools to elucidate the interplay between the objects to be ranked and the ranking parameters. In the present study is included an analysis of the relative importance of the single P, B and T parameters. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Development of a system utilizing data of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagasaka, Akihiko; Takano, Kenichi; Ebisu, Mitsuhiro; Aikawa, Tadashi; Hayase, Kenichi

    2004-01-01

    This report deals with a concrete method of utilizing data of risk assessment. First, the authors point out the necessity to assess all stages of jobs (planning, meeting with contractors, performing phase of task, etc.) in risk assessment bout jobs in electric power company, because most jobs are performed by contract system and risks of a job are distributed over electric company, contractors and subcontractors. Secondly, risks estimated from past accidents and near-miss events must be included. If these 2 requirements are fulfilled, data of risk assessment can be more useful. Then below 4 forms of present data of risk assessment were developed. A form to be used in job planning stage in electric companies for efficient investment planning in safety measures. A form to be used in meetings between electric companies and contractors for checking accident prevention methods. A form to be used in meetings between contractors and subcontractors for enhancing a shared awareness of risk. A form to be used in tool box meetings for confirming safe condition and inheriting of ability of risk perception. Additionally, a data base system of risk assessment about 4 jobs was developed. This system prints out about 4 forms for each job and is useful for PDCA of safety activities. (author)

  17. Ranking the contributions of commercial fish and shellfish varieties to mercury exposure in the United States: implications for risk communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groth, Edward

    2010-04-01

    Fish and shellfish have important nutritional benefits, and US per capita seafood consumption has increased substantially since 2002. Recent research has reinforced concerns about adverse effects of methylmercury exposure, suggesting that methylmercury doses associated with typical US rates of fish consumption may pose measurable risks, with no threshold. These converging trends create a need to improve risk communication about fish consumption and mercury. The analysis performed here identifies the relative importance of different fish and shellfish as sources of mercury in the US seafood supply and proposes improved consumer advice, so that the public can benefit from fish consumption while minimizing mercury exposure. I have quantified contributions to total mercury in the US seafood supply by 51 different varieties of fish and shellfish, then ranked and sorted the 51 varieties in terms of relative impact. Except for swordfish, most fish with the highest mercury levels are relatively minor contributors to total inputs. Tuna (canned light, canned albacore and fresh/frozen varieties) accounts for 37.4 percent of total mercury inputs, while two-thirds of the seafood supply and nine of the 11 most heavily consumed fish and shellfish are low or very low in mercury. Substantial improvement in risk communication about mercury in fish and seafood is needed; in particular, several population subsets need better guidance to base their seafood choices more explicitly on mercury content. I have sorted the 51 seafood varieties into six categories based on mercury levels, as a framework for improving risk communication in this regard. (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. A Chemical Risk Ranking and Scoring Method for the Selection of Harmful Substances to be Specially Controlled in Occupational Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Saemi; Moon, Hyung-Il; Lee, Kwon Seob; Hong, Mun Ki; Byeon, Sang-Hoon

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to devise a method for prioritizing hazardous chemicals for further regulatory action. To accomplish this objective, we chose appropriate indicators and algorithms. Nine indicators from the Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labeling of Chemicals were used to identify categories to which the authors assigned numerical scores. Exposure indicators included handling volume, distribution, and exposure level. To test the method devised by this study, sixty-two harmful substances controlled by the Occupational Safety and Health Act in Korea, including acrylamide, acrylonitrile, and styrene were ranked using this proposed method. The correlation coefficients between total score and each indicator ranged from 0.160 to 0.641, and those between total score and hazard indicators ranged from 0.603 to 0.641. The latter were higher than the correlation coefficients between total score and exposure indicators, which ranged from 0.160 to 0.421. Correlations between individual indicators were low (−0.240 to 0.376), except for those between handling volume and distribution (0.613), suggesting that each indicator was not strongly correlated. The low correlations between each indicator mean that the indicators and independent and were well chosen for prioritizing harmful chemicals. This method proposed by this study can improve the cost efficiency of chemical management as utilized in occupational regulatory systems. PMID:25419874

  19. A Chemical Risk Ranking and Scoring Method for the Selection of Harmful Substances to be Specially Controlled in Occupational Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saemi Shin

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to devise a method for prioritizing hazardous chemicals for further regulatory action. To accomplish this objective, we chose appropriate indicators and algorithms. Nine indicators from the Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labeling of Chemicals were used to identify categories to which the authors assigned numerical scores. Exposure indicators included handling volume, distribution, and exposure level. To test the method devised by this study, sixty-two harmful substances controlled by the Occupational Safety and Health Act in Korea, including acrylamide, acrylonitrile, and styrene were ranked using this proposed method. The correlation coefficients between total score and each indicator ranged from 0.160 to 0.641, and those between total score and hazard indicators ranged from 0.603 to 0.641. The latter were higher than the correlation coefficients between total score and exposure indicators, which ranged from 0.160 to 0.421. Correlations between individual indicators were low (−0.240 to 0.376, except for those between handling volume and distribution (0.613, suggesting that each indicator was not strongly correlated. The low correlations between each indicator mean that the indicators and independent and were well chosen for prioritizing harmful chemicals. This method proposed by this study can improve the cost efficiency of chemical management as utilized in occupational regulatory systems.

  20. Geographic exposure risk of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in US blood donors: a risk-ranking model to evaluate alternative donor-deferral policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hong; Huang, Yin; Gregori, Luisa; Asher, David M; Bui, Travis; Forshee, Richard A; Anderson, Steven A

    2017-04-01

    Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) has been transmitted by blood transfusion (TTvCJD). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommends deferring blood donors who resided in or traveled to 30 European countries where they may have been exposed to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) through beef consumption. Those recommendations warrant re-evaluation, because new cases of BSE and vCJD have markedly abated. The FDA developed a risk-ranking model to calculate the geographic vCJD risk using country-specific case rates and person-years of exposure of US blood donors. We used the reported country vCJD case rates, when available, or imputed vCJD case rates from reported BSE and UK beef exports during the risk period. We estimated the risk reduction and donor loss should the deferral be restricted to a few high-risk countries. We also estimated additional risk reduction by leukocyte reduction (LR) of red blood cells (RBCs). The United Kingdom, Ireland, and France had the greatest vCJD risk, contributing approximately 95% of the total risk. The model estimated that deferring US donors who spent extended periods of time in these three countries, combined with currently voluntary LR (95% of RBC units), would reduce the vCJD risk by 89.3%, a reduction similar to that achieved under the current policy (89.8%). Limiting deferrals to exposure in these three countries would potentially allow donations from an additional 100,000 donors who are currently deferred. Our analysis suggests that a deferral option focusing on the three highest risk countries would achieve a level of blood safety similar to that achieved by the current policy. © 2016 AABB.

  1. Organ utilization from increased infectious risk donors: An observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    L'Huillier, Arnaud G; Humar, Atul; Payne, Clare; Kumar, Deepali

    2017-12-01

    Donors with an increased risk of transmitting human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), or hepatitis C virus (HCV) (increased risk donors [IRDs]) are a potential source of organs for transplant. Organs from IRDs can be utilized with appropriate recipient consent and post-transplant follow-up. We reviewed the characteristics and utilization of IRDs in our Organ Procurement Organization (OPO) over a 2-year period. Donor information from April 1, 2013 to March 31, 2015 was obtained through the OPO database. Only consented donors were included. Donors were categorized as IRDs according to Health Canada/Canadian Standards Association (CSA) criteria. A total of 494 potential donors were identified, of which 92 (18.6%) were IRDs. Of these, at least one organ was transplanted from 76 (82.6%). Risk factors for IRDs included injection drug user (IDU) (12%), men having sex with men (MSM) (7%), commercial sex worker (CSW) (4%), and incarceration (24%). Fifty-nine percent (253/429) of IRD organs were utilized. The most frequently used organ was kidney, followed by liver. Median number of organs recovered per IRD was 3 (interquartile range: 2-5). Nucleic acid testing (NAT) was performed in 18.5% (17/92) of IRDs. Reasons for NAT were IDU (n = 2), MSM (n = 2), CSW (n = 2), and previous incarceration (n = 7). Organ utilization from donors that had NAT was similar to donors who did not (94% vs 80%, P = .29). Follow-up NAT was done in multiple factors contribute to the perception of infectious risk from such organs. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Critical review of methodology and application of risk ranking for prioritisation of food and feed related issues, on the basis of the size of anticipated health impact

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fels-Klerx, van der H.J.; Asselt, van E.D.; Raley, M.; Poulsen, M.; Korsgaard, H.; Bredsdorff, L.; Nauta, M.; Flari, V.; Agostino, D' M.; Coles, D.G.; Frewer, L.J.

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to critically review methodologies for ranking of risks related to feed/food safety and nutritional hazards, on the basis of their anticipated human health impact. An extensive systematic literature review was performed to identify and characterize the available methodologies for

  3. University Rankings: The Web Ranking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguillo, Isidro F.

    2012-01-01

    The publication in 2003 of the Ranking of Universities by Jiao Tong University of Shanghai has revolutionized not only academic studies on Higher Education, but has also had an important impact on the national policies and the individual strategies of the sector. The work gathers the main characteristics of this and other global university…

  4. Risk assessment and ranking methodologies for hazardous chemical defense waste: a state-of-the-art review and evaluation. Task 1 report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chu, M.S.Y.; Rodricks, J.V.; St Hilaire, C.; Bras, R.L.

    1986-06-01

    This report summarizes the work performed under Task 1 of the Risk Assessment Evaluation Task under the Hazardous Chemical Defense Waste Management Program of the Department of Energy (DOE). The objective of Task 1 was to identify, review, and evaluate the state-of-the-art tools and techniques available for ranking and evaluating disposal facilities. These tools were evaluated for their applicability to DOE's mixed hazardous chemical and radioactive waste sites. Various ranking methodologies were reviewed and three were evaluated in detail. Areas that were found to be deficient in each ranking methodology were presented in the report. Recommendations were given for the development of an improved ranking methodology for use on DOE's sites. A literature review was then performed on the various components of a risk assessment methodology. They include source term evaluation, geosphere transport models, exposure pathways models, dose effects models, and sensitivity/uncertainty techniques. A number of recommendations have been made in the report based on the review and evaluation for the development of a comprehensive risk assessment methodology in evaluating mixed waste disposal sites

  5. SibRank: Signed bipartite network analysis for neighbor-based collaborative ranking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shams, Bita; Haratizadeh, Saman

    2016-09-01

    Collaborative ranking is an emerging field of recommender systems that utilizes users' preference data rather than rating values. Unfortunately, neighbor-based collaborative ranking has gained little attention despite its more flexibility and justifiability. This paper proposes a novel framework, called SibRank that seeks to improve the state of the art neighbor-based collaborative ranking methods. SibRank represents users' preferences as a signed bipartite network, and finds similar users, through a novel personalized ranking algorithm in signed networks.

  6. Society of Thoracic Surgeons Risk Score Predicts Hospital Charges and Resource Utilization After Aortic Valve Replacement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnaoutakis, George J.; George, Timothy J.; Alejo, Diane E.; Merlo, Christian A.; Baumgartner, William A.; Cameron, Duke E.; Shah, Ashish S.

    2011-01-01

    Context The impact of Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) predicted mortality risk score on resource utilization after aortic valve replacement (AVR) has not been previously studied. Objective We hypothesize that increasing STS risk scores in patients having AVR are associated with greater hospital charges. Design, Setting, and Patients Clinical and financial data for patients undergoing AVR at a tertiary care, university hospital over a ten-year period (1/2000–12/2009) were retrospectively reviewed. The current STS formula (v2.61) for in-hospital mortality was used for all patients. After stratification into risk quartiles (Q), index admission hospital charges were compared across risk strata with Rank-Sum tests. Linear regression and Spearman’s coefficient assessed correlation and goodness of fit. Multivariable analysis assessed relative contributions of individual variables on overall charges. Main Outcome Measures Inflation-adjusted index hospitalization total charges Results 553 patients had AVR during the study period. Average predicted mortality was 2.9% (±3.4) and actual mortality was 3.4% for AVR. Median charges were greater in the upper Q of AVR patients [Q1–3,$39,949 (IQR32,708–51,323) vs Q4,$62,301 (IQR45,952–97,103), p=<0.01]. On univariate linear regression, there was a positive correlation between STS risk score and log-transformed charges (coefficient: 0.06, 95%CI 0.05–0.07, p<0.01). Spearman’s correlation R-value was 0.51. This positive correlation persisted in risk-adjusted multivariable linear regression. Each 1% increase in STS risk score was associated with an added $3,000 in hospital charges. Conclusions This study showed increasing STS risk score predicts greater charges after AVR. As competing therapies such as percutaneous valve replacement emerge to treat high risk patients, these results serve as a benchmark to compare resource utilization. PMID:21497834

  7. Rural Veterans' dental utilization, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey, 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiener, R Constance; Shen, Chan; Sambamoorthi, Usha; Findley, Patricia A

    2017-09-01

    Rural residents are overrepresented in the military; however, access to Veteran services is limited in rural areas. There is a need to identify rural Veteran healthcare utilization. This study addresses that need and has two purposes: a) to determine if there is an association between rural dwelling and Veteran utilization of dental services; and b) to determine if there is an association between rural dwelling and the oral health outcome of missing teeth. Data from the 2014 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey were used in this study. Chi square and logistic regression analyses were conducted. Rural Veterans were less likely to have a dental visit during the previous year as compared with metropolitan Veterans in unadjusted analysis (Odds ratio = 0.71, 95% Confidence Interval, 0.64, 0.77) and in adjusted analysis [0.87 (95% Confidence Interval, 0.78, 0.96)]. In cases in which all teeth were missing, rural Veterans had an unadjusted odds ratio of 1.79 [95% Confidence Interval, 1.55, 2.08] and an adjusted odds ratio of 1.37 [95% Confidence Interval, 1.17, 1.62] as compared with metropolitan Veterans. The Veterans Health Administration develops policies for establishing centers for care for Veterans. The policy development should take into consideration that rural Veterans have not been as likely as urban Veterans to utilize dental services and have poorer oral health outcomes. © 2017 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

  8. Low-rank coal research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weber, G. F.; Laudal, D. L.

    1989-01-01

    This work is a compilation of reports on ongoing research at the University of North Dakota. Topics include: Control Technology and Coal Preparation Research (SO{sub x}/NO{sub x} control, waste management), Advanced Research and Technology Development (turbine combustion phenomena, combustion inorganic transformation, coal/char reactivity, liquefaction reactivity of low-rank coals, gasification ash and slag characterization, fine particulate emissions), Combustion Research (fluidized bed combustion, beneficiation of low-rank coals, combustion characterization of low-rank coal fuels, diesel utilization of low-rank coals), Liquefaction Research (low-rank coal direct liquefaction), and Gasification Research (hydrogen production from low-rank coals, advanced wastewater treatment, mild gasification, color and residual COD removal from Synfuel wastewaters, Great Plains Gasification Plant, gasifier optimization).

  9. Coping with nuclear power risks: the electric utility incentives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Starr, C.; Whipple, C.

    1982-01-01

    The financial risks associated with nuclear power accidents are estimated by interpolating between frequency-vs.-severity data from routine outages and the frequency-vs.-severity estimates from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400). This analysis indicates that the expected costs of plant damage and lost power production are large compared to the public risks estimated in WASH-1400, using values from An Approach to Quantitative Safety Goals for Nuclear Power Plants (NUREG-0739), prepared by the NRC Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards. Analyses of the cost-effectiveness of accident-prevention investments that include only anticipated public safety benefits will underestimate the value of such investments if reductions in power plant damage risk are not included. The analysis also suggests that utility self-interest and the public interest in safety are generally coincident. It is argued that greater use could be made of this self-interest in regulation if the relationship between the NRC and the industry were more cooperative, less adversary in nature

  10. Estimating Bird / Aircraft Collision Probabilities and Risk Utilizing Spatial Poisson Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-10

    ESTIMATING BIRD/AIRCRAFT COLLISION PROBABILITIES AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES GRADUATE...AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES GRADUATE RESEARCH PAPER Presented to the Faculty Department of Operational Sciences...COLLISION PROBABILITIES AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES Brady J. Vaira, BS, MS Major, USAF Approved

  11. Health risk assessment for a MWC ash utilization demonstration project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roffman, H.K.

    1992-01-01

    A Health Risk Assessment (HRA) was conducted for the proposed joint Hennepin County/Municipal Services Corporation (MSC) MSW Ash Utilization Demonstration Project, in which combined HERC ash was shipped to the MSC Pilot Plan near Atlanta, Georgia and used in the production of a synthetic aggregate. The synthetic aggregate, or TAP, will serve as a partial replacement for natural aggregates in a section of bituminous pavement that is proposed to be constructed on Pioneer Trail in the City of Corcoran, Minnesota. In this paper, the assessment compares the following three scenarios: a section of roadway paved using the MSC synthetic aggregate product (TAP) as a replacement for 30 percent of the natural aggregates used in bituminous pavement; a section of regular bituminous (asphalt) pavement; and a section of unpaved road currently in place at the site

  12. The risk of stranded assets for utilities in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schroeder, W.

    1998-01-01

    The problems of dealing with stranded assets in Canada and the United States were discussed. Compared to the United States, the risk associated with stranded assets for utilities in Canada was considered to be relatively low because of the following factors: (1) low variable cost, (2) isolation, (3) lack of transmission interconnection capacity, (4) lack of tight synchronization in North America, (5) the likelihood of an increase in natural gas prices, (6) the absence of jurisdictional disputes such as FERC versus the states, (7) social considerations, (8) the learning curve, (9) politics, (10) weak balance sheets, (11) relatively low electricity prices, (12) the weak Canadian dollar, and (13) the possibility of refinancing at lower interest rates. Ontario Hydro, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia Power are the three Canadian utilities that may have stranded costs. For Ontario Hydro and New Brunswick Power the stranded costs would be related to nuclear generator problems, whereas for Nova Scotia Power, the stranded costs would be related to the thermal generating base, the threat from Sable Island Gas and the changing tax structure of the utility. Some other reasons why stranded assets could be created in Canada would include low variable costs and high fixed costs, over capacity of at least 30 per cent in generation, limited domestic energy growth, competitive threat from gas, reliability and safety of nuclear plants, and technology change. Five factors in terms of which stranded assets can be expressed are: (1) variable cost definition, (2) total cost definition, (3) operating profit definition, (4) wide geographic definition, and (5) free market definition. In calculating stranded assets, the number of years over which the assets are recovered and the discount rate are considered to be key factors. 26 tabs

  13. Utility of high-resolution computed tomography for predicting risk of sputum smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakanishi, Masanori; Demura, Yoshiki; Ameshima, Shingo; Kosaka, Nobuyuki; Chiba, Yukio; Nishikawa, Satoshi; Itoh, Harumi; Ishizaki, Takeshi

    2010-01-01

    Background: To diagnose sputum smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is difficult and the ability of high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) for diagnosing PTB has remained unclear in the sputum smear-negative setting. We retrospectively investigated whether or not this imaging modality can predict risk for sputum smear-negative PTB. Methods: We used HRCT to examine the findings of 116 patients with suspected PTB despite negative sputum smears for acid-fast bacilli (AFB). We investigated their clinical features and HRCT-findings to predict the risk for PTB by multivariate analysis and a combination of HRCT findings by stepwise regression analysis. We then designed provisional HRCT diagnostic criteria based on these results to rank the risk of PTB and blinded observers assessed the validity and reliability of these criteria. Results: A positive tuberculin skin test alone among clinical laboratory findings was significantly associated with an increase of risk of PTB. Multivariate regression analysis showed that large nodules, tree-in-bud appearance, lobular consolidation and the main lesion being located in S1, S2, and S6 were significantly associated with an increased risk of PTB. Stepwise regression analysis showed that coexistence of the above 4 factors was most significantly associated with an increase in the risk for PTB. Ranking of the results using our HRCT diagnostic criteria by blinded observers revealed good utility and agreement for predicting PTB risk. Conclusions: Even in the sputum smear-negative setting, HRCT can predict the risk of PTB with good reproducibility and can select patients having a high probability of PTB.

  14. Utility of high-resolution computed tomography for predicting risk of sputum smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakanishi, Masanori [Departments of Respiratory Medicine, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Fukui, 23 Shimoaizuki Eiheizi-cho, Fukui 910-1193 (Japan)], E-mail: mnakanishi@nifty.ne.jp; Demura, Yoshiki; Ameshima, Shingo [Departments of Respiratory Medicine, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Fukui, 23 Shimoaizuki Eiheizi-cho, Fukui 910-1193 (Japan); Kosaka, Nobuyuki [Departments of Radiology, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Fukui, 23 Shimoaizuki Eiheizi-cho, Fukui 910-1193 (Japan); Chiba, Yukio [Department of Respiratory Medicine, National Hospital Organization, Fukui Hospital, Tsuruga, Fukui 914-0195 (Japan); Nishikawa, Satoshi [Department of Radiology, National Hospital Organization, Fukui Hospital, Tsuruga, Fukui 914-0195 (Japan); Itoh, Harumi [Departments of Radiology, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Fukui, 23 Shimoaizuki Eiheizi-cho, Fukui 910-1193 (Japan); Ishizaki, Takeshi [Departments of Respiratory Medicine, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Fukui, 23 Shimoaizuki Eiheizi-cho, Fukui 910-1193 (Japan)

    2010-03-15

    Background: To diagnose sputum smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is difficult and the ability of high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) for diagnosing PTB has remained unclear in the sputum smear-negative setting. We retrospectively investigated whether or not this imaging modality can predict risk for sputum smear-negative PTB. Methods: We used HRCT to examine the findings of 116 patients with suspected PTB despite negative sputum smears for acid-fast bacilli (AFB). We investigated their clinical features and HRCT-findings to predict the risk for PTB by multivariate analysis and a combination of HRCT findings by stepwise regression analysis. We then designed provisional HRCT diagnostic criteria based on these results to rank the risk of PTB and blinded observers assessed the validity and reliability of these criteria. Results: A positive tuberculin skin test alone among clinical laboratory findings was significantly associated with an increase of risk of PTB. Multivariate regression analysis showed that large nodules, tree-in-bud appearance, lobular consolidation and the main lesion being located in S1, S2, and S6 were significantly associated with an increased risk of PTB. Stepwise regression analysis showed that coexistence of the above 4 factors was most significantly associated with an increase in the risk for PTB. Ranking of the results using our HRCT diagnostic criteria by blinded observers revealed good utility and agreement for predicting PTB risk. Conclusions: Even in the sputum smear-negative setting, HRCT can predict the risk of PTB with good reproducibility and can select patients having a high probability of PTB.

  15. Langley Research Center Utility Risk from Future Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Young, Russell J.; Ganoe, Rene

    2015-01-01

    The successful operation of NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) depends on services provided by several public utility companies. These include Newport News Waterworks, Dominion Virginia Power, Virginia Natural Gas and Hampton Roads Sanitation District. LaRC's plan to respond to future climate change should take into account how these companies plan to avoid interruption of services while minimizing cost to the customers. This report summarizes our findings from publicly available documents on how each company plans to respond. This will form the basis for future planning for the Center. Our preliminary findings show that flooding and severe storms could interrupt service from the Waterworks and Sanitation District but the potential is low due to plans in place to address climate change on their system. Virginia Natural Gas supplies energy to produce steam but most current steam comes from the Hampton trash burning plant, thus interruption risk is low. Dominion Virginia Power does not address climate change impacts on their system in their public reports. The potential interruption risk is considered to be medium. The Hampton Roads Sanitation District is projecting a major upgrade of their system to mitigate clean water inflow and infiltration. This will reduce infiltration and avoid overloading the pump stations and treatment plants.

  16. Strategic Risk Management Behavior: What Can Utility Functions Tell Us

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Garcia, P.

    2004-01-01

    Abstract The validity of the utility concept, particularly in an expected utility framework, has been questioned because of its inability to predict revealed behavior. In this paper we focus on the global shape of the utility function instead of the local shape of the utility function. We examine

  17. Drug utilization and teratogenicity risk categories during pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basgül, Alin; Akici, Ahmet; Uzuner, Arzu; Kalaça, Sibel; Kavak, Zehra N; Tural, Alper; Oktay, Sule

    2007-01-01

    A limited number of studies have investigated in detail the use of drugs during pregnancy. Researchers in the present study investigated the details of drug utilization in pregnant women during the month before pregnancy, at the time that they became aware of the pregnancy, and during the first trimester. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 359 pregnant women who were admitted to the fetal medicine unit at a university hospital for diagnosis and follow-up. A questionnaire was used to document sociodemographic characteristics and details of drug use. Drugs were categorized according to the US Food and Drug Administration fetal risk classification. Mean maternal age was 29.9+/-5.1 y, and mean gestational age was 19.6+/-9.5 wk. Many of the pregnant women studied (46.6%) were university graduates, and most (61.9%) had a relatively high annual income. Mean gestational age when participants first learned of their pregnancy was 39.8+/-16.4 d. One hundred seventeen participants (32.6%) used drugs during the month before conception, 54 (15%) at the time when they learned of their pregnancy, 180 (50.1%) at the time of the interview, and 289 (80.5%) during the first trimester. The percentages of drugs in categories D and X used by these subjects were 14%, 13.5%, 2.9%, and 5.9%, respectively. Most of the drugs were hormones. The total rate of drug utilization was not high before and during the first trimester of pregnancy. A considerable number of women were using drugs from the D and X categories; however, these numbers decreased significantly when women learned of their pregnancies. Intake of folic acid, vitamins, and iron was very low during the preconception period and was not high enough during the first trimester; this suggests that particular attention should be paid to the use of beneficial "safe" drugs during the preconception and early pregnancy periods.

  18. Optimal investment and indifference pricing when risk aversion is not monotone: SAHARA utility functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, A.; Pelsser, A.; Vellekoop, M.

    2008-01-01

    Abstract. We develop a new class of utility functions, SAHARA utility, with the dis- tinguishing feature that they implement the assumption that agents may become less risk-averse for very low values of wealth. This means that SAHARA utility can be used to characterize risk gambling behavior of an

  19. Optimising risk reduction: An expected utility approach for marginal risk reduction during regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Jiawei; Pollard, Simon; Kendall, Graham; Soane, Emma; Davies, Gareth

    2009-01-01

    In practice, risk and uncertainty are essentially unavoidable in many regulation processes. Regulators frequently face a risk-benefit trade-off since zero risk is neither practicable nor affordable. Although it is accepted that cost-benefit analysis is important in many scenarios of risk management, what role it should play in a decision process is still controversial. One criticism of cost-benefit analysis is that decision makers should consider marginal benefits and costs, not present ones, in their decision making. In this paper, we investigate the problem of regulatory decision making under risk by applying expected utility theory and present a new approach of cost-benefit analysis. Directly taking into consideration the reduction of the risks, this approach achieves marginal cost-benefit analysis. By applying this approach, the optimal regulatory decision that maximizes the marginal benefit of risk reduction can be considered. This provides a transparent and reasonable criterion for stakeholders involved in the regulatory activity. An example of evaluating seismic retrofitting alternatives is provided to demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

  20. Efforts to utilize risk assessment at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narumiya, Yoshiyuki

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment means the use of the outputs that have been obtained through risk identification and risk analysis (risk information), followed by the determination of the response policy by comparing these outputs with the risk of judgement standards. This paper discusses the use of risk information with multifaceted nature and its significance, and the challenges to the further penetration of these items. As the lessons and risk assessment learnt from the past accidents, this paper takes up the cases of the severe accidents of Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima Daiichi power stations, and discusses their causes and expansion factors. In particular, at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, important lessons were shortage in measures against the superimposition of earthquake and tsunami, and the insufficient use of risk assessment. This paper classified risk assessment from the viewpoint of risk information, and showed the contents and index for each item of risk reduction trends, risk increase trends, and measures according to the importance of risk. As the benefits of activities due to risk assessment, this paper referred to the application cases of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of IAEA, and summarized the application activities of 10 items of risk indexes by classifying them to safety benefits and operational benefits. For example, in the item of flexible Allowed Outage Time (AOT), the avoidance of plant shutdown and the flexibility improvement of maintenance scheduling at a plant are corresponding to the above-mentioned benefits, respectively. (A.O.)

  1. Utilizing elements of the CSAU phenomena identification and ranking table (PIRT) to qualify a PWR non-LOCA transients system code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, K.R.; Fletcher, C.D.; Gottula, R.C.; Lindquist, T.R.; Stitt, B.D. [Framatome ANP, Richland, WA (United States)

    2001-07-01

    Licensing analyses of Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Standard Review Plan (SRP) Chapter 15 non-LOCA transients are an important part of establishing operational safety limits and design limits for nuclear power plants. The applied codes and methods are generally qualified using traditional methods of benchmarking and assessment, sample problems, and demonstration of conservatism. Rigorous formal methods for developing code and methodology have been created and applied to qualify realistic methods for Large Break Loss-of-Coolant Accidents (LBLOCA's). This methodology, Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU), is a very demanding, resource intensive, process to apply. It would be challenging to apply a comprehensive and complete CSAU level of analysis, individually, to each of the more than 30 non-LOCA transients that comprise Chapter 15 events. However, certain elements of the process can be easily adapted to improve quality of the codes and methods used to analyze non- LOCA transients. One of these elements is the Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT). This paper presents the results of an informally constructed PIRT that applies to non-LOCA transients for Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR's) of the Westinghouse and Combustion Engineering design. A group of experts in thermal-hydraulics and safety analysis identified and ranked the phenomena. To begin the process, the PIRT was initially performed individually by each expert. Then through group interaction and discussion, a consensus was reached on both the significant phenomena and the appropriate ranking. The paper also discusses using the PIRT as an aid to qualify a 'conservative' system code and methodology. Once agreement was obtained on the phenomena and ranking, the table was divided into six functional groups, by nature of the transients, along the same lines as Chapter 15. Then, assessment and disposition of the significant phenomena was performed. The PIRT and

  2. Appraising longitudinal trends in the strategic risks cited by risk managers in the international water utility sector, 2005-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalker, Rosemary T C; Pollard, Simon J T; Leinster, Paul; Jude, Simon

    2018-03-15

    We report dynamic changes in the priorities for strategic risks faced by international water utilities over a 10year period, as cited by managers responsible for managing them. A content analysis of interviews with three cohorts of risk managers in the water sector was undertaken. Interviews probed the focus risk managers' were giving to strategic risks within utilities, as well as specific questions on risk analysis tools (2005); risk management cultures (2011) and the integration of risk management with corporate decision-making (2015). The coding frequency of strategic (business, enterprise, corporate) risk terms from 18 structured interviews (2005) and 28 semi-structured interviews (12 in 2011; 16 in 2015) was used to appraise changes in the perceived importance of strategic risks within the sector. The aggregated coding frequency across the study period, and changes in the frequency of strategic risks cited at three interview periods identified infrastructure assets as the most significant risk over the period and suggests an emergence of extrinsic risk over time. Extended interviews with three utility risk managers (2016) from the UK, Canada and the US were then used to contextualise the findings. This research supports the ongoing focus on infrastructure resilience and the increasing prevalence of extrinsic risk within the water sector, as reported by the insurance sector and by water research organisations. The extended interviews provided insight into how strategic risks are now driving the implementation agenda within utilities, and into how utilities can secure tangible business value from proactive risk governance. Strategic external risks affecting the sector are on the rise, involve more players and are less controllable from within a utility's own organisational boundaries. Proportionate risk management processes and structures provide oversight and assurance, whilst allowing a focus on the tangible business value that comes from managing strategic

  3. Sparse structure regularized ranking

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Jim Jing-Yan; Sun, Yijun; Gao, Xin

    2014-01-01

    Learning ranking scores is critical for the multimedia database retrieval problem. In this paper, we propose a novel ranking score learning algorithm by exploring the sparse structure and using it to regularize ranking scores. To explore the sparse

  4. Climate Change - A New Risk Reality for Utility Companies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nelson, William R.; Cramer, Espen; Torstad, Elisabeth; Rosnes, Olafr

    2010-09-15

    Climate change introduces new and complex risk factors affecting the power sector. In DNV's experience, the companies that manage to control risk and take advantage of the opportunities in a changing business environment are more likely to succeed. This paper gives an overview of the main risks and opportunities of climate change facing the sector. Through a survey of the European and North American power sector, DNV has mapped the industry's views on the risk picture. The survey identifies what the industry players consider to be viable strategies for the sector in tackling the new risk reality of climate change.

  5. The utility of absolute risk prediction using FRAX® and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator in daily practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Geel, Tineke A C M; Eisman, John A; Geusens, Piet P; van den Bergh, Joop P W; Center, Jacqueline R; Dinant, Geert-Jan

    2014-02-01

    There are two commonly used fracture risk prediction tools FRAX(®) and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator (GARVAN-FRC). The objective of this study was to investigate the utility of these tools in daily practice. A prospective population-based 5-year follow-up study was conducted in ten general practice centres in the Netherlands. For the analyses, the FRAX(®) and GARVAN-FRC 10-year absolute risks (FRAX(®) does not have 5-year risk prediction) for all fractures were used. Among 506 postmenopausal women aged ≥60 years (mean age: 67.8±5.8 years), 48 (9.5%) sustained a fracture during follow-up. Both tools, using BMD values, distinguish between women who did and did not fracture (10.2% vs. 6.8%, respectively for FRAX(®) and 32.4% vs. 39.1%, respectively for GARVAN-FRC, pbetter for women who sustained a fracture (higher sensitivity) and FRAX(®) for women who did not sustain a fracture (higher specificity). Similar results were obtained using age related cut off points. The discriminant value of both models is at least as good as models used in other medical conditions; hence they can be used to communicate the fracture risk to patients. However, given differences in the estimated risks between FRAX(®) and GARVAN-FRC, the significance of the absolute risk must be related to country-specific recommended intervention thresholds to inform the patient. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Chylomicronemia risk factors ranked by importance for the individual and community in 108 711 women and men

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, S. B.; Varbo, A.; Langsted, A.

    2018-01-01

    and community. Methods: A total of 108 711 individuals from the Copenhagen General Population Study were grouped as unlikely chylomicronemia (nonfasting triglycerides ....4%) and sedentary lifestyle (PAF: 6.0%). Conclusions: Obesity and type 2 diabetes were the most important modifiable chylomicronemia risk factors in women and men, both for the individual and community. This could influence chylomicronemia prevention and help design randomized trials aimed at reducing triglycerides......Background: Hypertriglyceridemia prevalence is increasing as more individuals become obese, and chylomicronemia risk factors for the individual and community have not been described previously. Objective: To describe chylomicronemia risk factors in the general population for individuals...

  7. Differences in Health Care Costs and Utilization among Adults with Selected Lifestyle-Related Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Larry A.; Clegg, Alan G.

    2002-01-01

    Examined the relationship between lifestyle-related health risks and health care costs and utilization among young adults. Data collected at a primarily white collar worksite in over 2 years indicated that health risks, particularly obesity, stress, and general lifestyle, were significant predictors of health care costs and utilization among these…

  8. Recursive inter-generational utility in global climate risk modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Minh, Ha-Duong [Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement (CIRED-CNRS), 75 - Paris (France); Treich, N. [Institut National de Recherches Agronomiques (INRA-LEERNA), 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2003-07-01

    This paper distinguishes relative risk aversion and resistance to inter-temporal substitution in climate risk modeling. Stochastic recursive preferences are introduced in a stylized numeric climate-economy model using preliminary IPCC 1998 scenarios. It shows that higher risk aversion increases the optimal carbon tax. Higher resistance to inter-temporal substitution alone has the same effect as increasing the discount rate, provided that the risk is not too large. We discuss implications of these findings for the debate upon discounting and sustainability under uncertainty. (author)

  9. Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis and Ranking Tool (SMART in earthquake risk assessment: a case study of Delhi region, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nishant Sinha

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This article is aimed at earthquake hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis and Ranking Tool (SMART, which is based on Saaty's multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA technique. The three specific study sites of Delhi were chosen for research as it corresponds to a typical patch of the urban environs, completely engrossed with residential, commercial and industrial units. The earthquake hazard affecting components are established in the form of geographic information system data-set layers including seismic zone, peak ground acceleration (PGA, soil characteristics, liquefaction potential, geological characteristics, land use, proximity to fault and epicentre. The physical vulnerability layers comprising building information, namely number of stories, year-built range, area, occupancy and construction type, derived from remote sensing imagery, were only considered for the current research. SMART was developed for earthquake risk assessment, and weights were derived both at component and its element level. Based on weighted overlay techniques, the earthquake hazard and vulnerability layers were created from which the risk maps were derived through multiplicative analysis. The developed risk maps may prove useful in decision-making process and formulating risk mitigation measures.

  10. Economics versus psychology.Risk, uncertainty and the expected utility theory

    OpenAIRE

    Schilirò, Daniele

    2017-01-01

    The present contribution examines the emergence of expected utility theory by John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern, the subjective the expected utility theory by Savage, and the problem of choice under risk and uncertainty, focusing in particular on the seminal work “The Utility Analysis of Choices involving Risk" (1948) by Milton Friedman and Leonard Savage to show how the evolution of the theory of choice has determined a separation of economics from psychology.

  11. What's wrong with hazard-ranking systems? An expository note.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2009-07-01

    Two commonly recommended principles for allocating risk management resources to remediate uncertain hazards are: (1) select a subset to maximize risk-reduction benefits (e.g., maximize the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility of the selected risk-reducing activities), and (2) assign priorities to risk-reducing opportunities and then select activities from the top of the priority list down until no more can be afforded. When different activities create uncertain but correlated risk reductions, as is often the case in practice, then these principles are inconsistent: priority scoring and ranking fails to maximize risk-reduction benefits. Real-world risk priority scoring systems used in homeland security and terrorism risk assessment, environmental risk management, information system vulnerability rating, business risk matrices, and many other important applications do not exploit correlations among risk-reducing opportunities or optimally diversify risk-reducing investments. As a result, they generally make suboptimal risk management recommendations. Applying portfolio optimization methods instead of risk prioritization ranking, rating, or scoring methods can achieve greater risk-reduction value for resources spent.

  12. Reduced Rank Regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren

    2008-01-01

    The reduced rank regression model is a multivariate regression model with a coefficient matrix with reduced rank. The reduced rank regression algorithm is an estimation procedure, which estimates the reduced rank regression model. It is related to canonical correlations and involves calculating...

  13. RANK ligand inhibition in bone metastatic cancer and risk of osteonecrosis of the jaw (ONJ): non bis in idem?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van den Wyngaert, Tim; Wouters, Kristien; Huizing, Manon T; Vermorken, Jan B

    2011-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the necessity of post-marketing safety monitoring focused on osteonecrosis of the jaw (ONJ) in patients with bone metastatic cancer treated with denosumab (AMG162). The ONJ safety data from three randomized phase III trials were pooled, and risk ratios and power were computed using traditional methods and simulation. A total of 89 ONJ cases (1.57%; 95% CI, 1.26-1.92) were reported with 52 (1.83%; 95% CI, 1.37-2.39) occurring in the denosumab group (n = 2,841) and 37 (1.30%; 95% CI, 0.92-1.79) in the zoledronic acid group (n = 2,836). Overall, the pooled risk ratio (RR) for ONJ was 1.40 (95% CI, 0.92-2.13; p = 0.11). In the trials reporting superior therapeutic efficacy of denosumab, the RR for ONJ was 1.61 (95% CI, 0.99-2.62; p = 0.052). However, neither separately nor pooled had any trial adequate power (>80%) to detect excess relative risks of ONJ of up to 76%, assuming fixed ONJ rates in the control arms. The joint power of the trials to detect the observed excess relative risk of 40% was only 36%. The rate of mucosal healing in patients with ONJ appeared similar in both groups (RR, 1.28; 95% CI, 0.66-2.45; p = 0.5). Although the overall frequency of ONJ was low, post-marketing risk-benefit studies with this novel compound appear warranted focusing specifically on this rare toxicity, which can potentially have a high impact on quality of life.

  14. Electric-utility returns and risk in the light of Three Mile Island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brooks, L.D.; D'Souza, R.E.

    1982-01-01

    The impact of the Three Mile Island nuclear-generating-unit failure on the performance of nuclear-dependent electric utilities is examined in this article. A comparative examination of the time series of abnormal returns and risk measures on nuclear-dependent utilities and nondependent utilities prior to the TMI incident, at the time of the incident, and subsequent to it was performed by the authors. The results are consistent with a hypothesis that investors associate a decline in future profitability or increased risk with nuclear-associated utilities. However, the more-objective measures indicate a clear reduction in risk for nuclear-associated utilities since the TMI incident, both in relation to the market as a whole and in relation to electric utilities which are not nuclear-associated. 4 references, 1 figure, 3 tables

  15. Playing the odds: Climate change risks transform utility plans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tennis, M.W. [Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    Cost and uncertainty analyses conducted jointly by the Union of Concerned Scientists and World Resource Institute regarding climate change policy and regulations are presented in this paper. A utility model was developed to help determine whether action was required in the near term by the electric industry and policy makers to reduce carbon emissions. The cost and carbon dioxide emissions resulting from four case studies are tabulated. Analysis of the results shows that explicit consideration of climate change uncertainty can provide an economic justification for investing in low carbon resources at above market costs. A number of specific recommendations are made in the paper. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  16. Mining Feedback in Ranking and Recommendation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Ziming

    2009-01-01

    The amount of online information has grown exponentially over the past few decades, and users become more and more dependent on ranking and recommendation systems to address their information seeking needs. The advance in information technologies has enabled users to provide feedback on the utilities of the underlying ranking and recommendation…

  17. MCSDSS: A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System for Merging Geoscience Information with Natural User Interfaces, Preference Ranking, and Interactive Data Utilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, S. A.; Gentle, J.

    2015-12-01

    The multi-criteria decision support system (MCSDSS) is a newly completed application for touch-enabled group decision support that uses D3 data visualization tools, a geojson conversion utility that we developed, and Paralelex to create an interactive tool. The MCSDSS is a prototype system intended to demonstrate the potential capabilities of a single page application (SPA) running atop a web and cloud based architecture utilizing open source technologies. The application is implemented on current web standards while supporting human interface design that targets both traditional mouse/keyboard interactions and modern touch/gesture enabled interactions. The technology stack for MCSDSS was selected with the goal of creating a robust and dynamic modular codebase that can be adjusted to fit many use cases and scale to support usage loads that range between simple data display to complex scientific simulation-based modelling and analytics. The application integrates current frameworks for highly performant agile development with unit testing, statistical analysis, data visualization, mapping technologies, geographic data manipulation, and cloud infrastructure while retaining support for traditional HTML5/CSS3 web standards. The software lifecylcle for MCSDSS has following best practices to develop, share, and document the codebase and application. Code is documented and shared via an online repository with the option for programmers to see, contribute, or fork the codebase. Example data files and tutorial documentation have been shared with clear descriptions and data object identifiers. And the metadata about the application has been incorporated into an OntoSoft entry to ensure that MCSDSS is searchable and clearly described. MCSDSS is a flexible platform that allows for data fusion and inclusion of large datasets in an interactive front-end application capable of connecting with other science-based applications and advanced computing resources. In addition, MCSDSS

  18. The Effects of Variability and Risk in Selection Utility Analysis: An Empirical Comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rich, Joseph R.; Boudreau, John W.

    1987-01-01

    Investigated utility estimate variability for the selection utility of using the Programmer Aptitude Test to select computer programmers. Comparison of Monte Carlo results to other risk assessment approaches (sensitivity analysis, break-even analysis, algebraic derivation of the distribtion) suggests that distribution information provided by Monte…

  19. Ranking Operations Management conferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenhuis, H.J.; de Bruijn, E.J.; Gupta, Sushil; Laptaned, U

    2007-01-01

    Several publications have appeared in the field of Operations Management which rank Operations Management related journals. Several ranking systems exist for journals based on , for example, perceived relevance and quality, citation, and author affiliation. Many academics also publish at conferences

  20. World Health Organization Ranking of Antimicrobials According to Their Importance in Human Medicine: A Critical Step for Developing Risk Management Strategies for the Use of Antimicrobials in Food Production Animals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Collignon, P.; Powers, J. H.; Chiller, T. M.

    2009-01-01

    stakeholders can use this ranking when developing risk management strategies for the use of antimicrobials in food production animals. The ranking allows stakeholders to focus risk management efforts on drugs used in food animals that are the most important to human medicine and, thus, need to be addressed......The use of antimicrobials in food animals creates an important source of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria that can spread to humans through the food supply. Improved management of the use of antimicrobials in food animals, particularly reducing the usage of those that are "critically important...

  1. Determinants of Mental Health Care Utilization in a Suicide High-risk Group With Suicidal Ideation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyun-Soo; Lee, Moo-Sik; Hong, Jee-Young

    2016-01-01

    The suicide rate in Korea is increasing every year, and is the highest among the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries. Psychiatric patients in particular have a higher risk of suicide than other patients. This study was performed to evaluate determinants of mental health care utilization among individuals at high risk for suicide. Korea Health Panel data from 2009 to 2011 were used. Subjects were individuals at high risk of suicide who had suicidal ideation, a past history of psychiatric illness, or had utilized outpatient services for a psychiatric disorder associated with suicidal ideation within the past year. The chi-square test and hierarchical logistic regression were used to identify significant determinants of mental health care utilization. The total number of subjects with complete data on the variables in our model was 989. Individuals suffering from three or more chronic diseases used mental health care more frequently. Mental health care utilization was higher in subjects who had middle or high levels of educational attainment, were receiving Medical Aid, or had a large family size. It is important to control risk factors in high-risk groups as part of suicide prevention strategies. The clinical approach, which includes community-based intervention, entails the management of reduction of suicidal risk. Our study identified demographic characteristics that have a significant impact on mental health care utilization and should be considered in the development of suicide prevention strategies. Further studies should examine the effect of mental health care utilization on reducing suicidal ideation.

  2. Customer-oriented risk assessment in network utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gómez Fernández, Juan F.; Márquez, Adolfo Crespo; López-Campos, Mónica A.

    2016-01-01

    For companies that distribute services such as telecommunications, water, energy, gas, etc., quality perceived by the customers has a strong impact on the fulfillment of financial goals, positively increasing the demand and negatively increasing the risk of customer churn (loss of customers). Failures by these companies may cause customer affection in a massive way, augmenting the intention to leave the company. Therefore, maintenance performance and specifically service reliability has a strong influence on financial goals. This paper proposes a methodology to evaluate the contribution of the maintenance department in economic terms, based on service unreliability by network failures. The developed methodology aims to provide an analysis of failures to facilitate decision making about maintenance (preventive/predictive and corrective) costs versus negative impacts in end-customer invoicing based on the probability of losing customers. Survival analysis of recurrent failures with the General Renewal Process distribution is used for this novel purpose with the intention to be applied as a standard procedure to calculate the expected maintenance financial impact, for a given period of time. Also, geographical areas of coverage are distinguished, enabling the comparison of different technical or management alternatives. Two case studies in a telecommunications services company are presented in order to illustrate the applicability of the methodology. - Highlights: • Reliability and reparability impact the rate of abandonment of customers. • Expected reliability and interruptions must be contemplated in services contracts. • Preventive maintenance reduces the risk of abandonment, besides corrective costs. • Analysis of investment in service reliability vs. impact on customer retention. • Reliability of services has a positive impact in business financial situation.

  3. Dynamic decision making without expected utility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Jaffray, Jean-Yves

    2006-01-01

    Non-expected utility theories, such as rank dependent utility (RDU) theory, have been proposed as alternative models to EU theory in decision making under risk. These models do not share the separability property of expected utility theory. This implies that, in a decision tree, if the reduction...... maker’s discordant goals at the different decision nodes. Relative to the computations involved in the standard expected utility evaluation of a decision problem, the main computational increase is due to the identification of non-dominated strategies by linear programming. A simulation, using the rank...

  4. Balancing Cost and Risk: The Treatment of Renewable Energy in Western Utility Resource Plans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-08-10

    Markets for renewable energy have historically been motivated primarily by policy efforts, but a less widely recognized driver is poised to also play a major role in the coming years: utility integrated resource planning (IRP). Resource planning has re-emerged in recent years as an important tool for utilities and regulators, particularly in regions where retail competition has failed to take root. In the western United States, the most recent resource plans contemplate a significant amount of renewable energy additions. These planned additions--primarily coming from wind power--are motivated by the improved economics of wind power, a growing acceptance of wind by electric utilities, and an increasing recognition of the inherent risks (e.g., natural gas price risk, environmental compliance risk) in fossil-based generation portfolios. This report examines how twelve western utilities treat renewable energy in their recent resource plans. In aggregate, these utilities supply approximately half of all electricity demand in the western United States. Our purpose is twofold: (1) to highlight the growing importance of utility IRP as a current and future driver of renewable energy, and (2) to identify methodological/modeling issues, and suggest possible improvements to methods used to evaluate renewable energy as a resource option. Here we summarize the key findings of the report, beginning with a discussion of the planned renewable energy additions called for by the twelve utilities, an overview of how these plans incorporated renewables into candidate portfolios, and a review of the specific technology cost and performance assumptions they made, primarily for wind power. We then turn to the utilities' analysis of natural gas price and environmental compliance risks, and examine how the utilities traded off portfolio cost and risk in selecting a preferred portfolio.

  5. Sparse structure regularized ranking

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Jim Jing-Yan

    2014-04-17

    Learning ranking scores is critical for the multimedia database retrieval problem. In this paper, we propose a novel ranking score learning algorithm by exploring the sparse structure and using it to regularize ranking scores. To explore the sparse structure, we assume that each multimedia object could be represented as a sparse linear combination of all other objects, and combination coefficients are regarded as a similarity measure between objects and used to regularize their ranking scores. Moreover, we propose to learn the sparse combination coefficients and the ranking scores simultaneously. A unified objective function is constructed with regard to both the combination coefficients and the ranking scores, and is optimized by an iterative algorithm. Experiments on two multimedia database retrieval data sets demonstrate the significant improvements of the propose algorithm over state-of-the-art ranking score learning algorithms.

  6. Investigation into the risk perceptions of investors in the securities of nuclear-dependent electric utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spudeck, R.E.

    1983-01-01

    Two weeks prior to the Three Mile Island accident, March 15, 1979, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission ordered five operating nuclear plants shut down in order to reexamine safety standards in these plants. Reports in the popular and trade press during this time suggested that these events, particularly the accident at Three Mile Island, caused investors in the securities of electric utilities that had nuclear-generation facilities to revise their risk perceptions. This study was designed to examine the impact of both the Nuclear Regulatory Commission order and the accident at Three Mile Island on investor risk perceptions. Selected categories of electric utilities were chosen to examine any differential risk effects resulting from these events. An asset pricing model devoid of many of the restrictive assumptions of more familiar models was used to model investor behavior. The findings suggest that the events described did cause investors to revise upward their perceptions of systematic risk regarding different categories of electric utilities. More specifically, those electric utilities that were operating nuclear plants in 1979 experienced the largest and most sustained increase in systematic risk. However, electric utilities that in 1979 had no operating nuclear plants, but had planned and committed funds for nuclear plants in the future, also experienced increases in systematic risk

  7. Ranking species in mutualistic networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domínguez-García, Virginia; Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2015-02-01

    Understanding the architectural subtleties of ecological networks, believed to confer them enhanced stability and robustness, is a subject of outmost relevance. Mutualistic interactions have been profusely studied and their corresponding bipartite networks, such as plant-pollinator networks, have been reported to exhibit a characteristic ``nested'' structure. Assessing the importance of any given species in mutualistic networks is a key task when evaluating extinction risks and possible cascade effects. Inspired in a recently introduced algorithm -similar in spirit to Google's PageRank but with a built-in non-linearity- here we propose a method which -by exploiting their nested architecture- allows us to derive a sound ranking of species importance in mutualistic networks. This method clearly outperforms other existing ranking schemes and can become very useful for ecosystem management and biodiversity preservation, where decisions on what aspects of ecosystems to explicitly protect need to be made.

  8. Comparative study of an HIV risk scorecard and regression models to rank effects of demographic characteristics on risk of aquiring an HIV infection

    OpenAIRE

    Wilbert Sibanda; Philip Pretorius

    2013-01-01

    This research paper covers the development of an HIV risk scorecard using SAS Enterprise MinerTM. The HIV risk scorecard was developed using the 2007 South African annual antenatal HIV and syphilis seroprevalence data. Limited comparisons are made with a more recent 2010 antenatal database. Antenatal data contains various demographic characteristics for each pregnant woman, such as pregnant woman’s age, male sexual partner’s age, population group, level of education, gravidity, parity, HIV an...

  9. Individual Differences in Subjective Utility and Risk Preferences: The Influence of Hedonic Capacity and Trait Anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howlett, Jonathon R; Paulus, Martin P

    2017-01-01

    Individual differences in decision-making are important in both normal populations and psychiatric conditions. Variability in decision-making could be mediated by different subjective utilities or by other processes. For example, while traditional economic accounts attribute risk aversion to a concave subjective utility curve, in practice other factors could affect risk behavior. This distinction may have important implications for understanding the biological basis of variability in decision-making and for developing interventions to improve decision-making. Another aspect of decision-making that may vary between individuals is the sensitivity of subjective utility to counterfactual outcomes (outcomes that could have occurred, but did not). We investigated decision-making in relation to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety, two traits that relate to psychiatric conditions but also vary in the general population. Subjects performed a decision-making task, in which they chose between low- and high-risk gambles to win 0, 20, or 40 points on each trial. Subjects then rated satisfaction after each outcome on a visual analog scale, indicating subjective utility. Hedonic capacity was positively associated with the subjective utility of winning 20 points but was not associated with the concavity of the subjective utility curve (constructed using the mean subjective utility of winning 0, 20, or 40 points). Consistent with economic theory, concavity of the subjective utility curve was associated with risk aversion. Hedonic capacity was independently associated with risk seeking (i.e., not mediated by the shape of the subjective utility curve), while trait anxiety was unrelated to risk preferences. Contrary to our expectations, counterfactual sensitivity was unrelated to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety. Nevertheless, trait anxiety was associated with a self-report measure of regret-proneness, suggesting that counterfactual influences may occur via a pathway that is separate

  10. Individual Differences in Subjective Utility and Risk Preferences: The Influence of Hedonic Capacity and Trait Anxiety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathon R. Howlett

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Individual differences in decision-making are important in both normal populations and psychiatric conditions. Variability in decision-making could be mediated by different subjective utilities or by other processes. For example, while traditional economic accounts attribute risk aversion to a concave subjective utility curve, in practice other factors could affect risk behavior. This distinction may have important implications for understanding the biological basis of variability in decision-making and for developing interventions to improve decision-making. Another aspect of decision-making that may vary between individuals is the sensitivity of subjective utility to counterfactual outcomes (outcomes that could have occurred, but did not. We investigated decision-making in relation to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety, two traits that relate to psychiatric conditions but also vary in the general population. Subjects performed a decision-making task, in which they chose between low- and high-risk gambles to win 0, 20, or 40 points on each trial. Subjects then rated satisfaction after each outcome on a visual analog scale, indicating subjective utility. Hedonic capacity was positively associated with the subjective utility of winning 20 points but was not associated with the concavity of the subjective utility curve (constructed using the mean subjective utility of winning 0, 20, or 40 points. Consistent with economic theory, concavity of the subjective utility curve was associated with risk aversion. Hedonic capacity was independently associated with risk seeking (i.e., not mediated by the shape of the subjective utility curve, while trait anxiety was unrelated to risk preferences. Contrary to our expectations, counterfactual sensitivity was unrelated to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety. Nevertheless, trait anxiety was associated with a self-report measure of regret-proneness, suggesting that counterfactual influences may occur via a pathway

  11. Individual Differences in Subjective Utility and Risk Preferences: The Influence of Hedonic Capacity and Trait Anxiety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howlett, Jonathon R.; Paulus, Martin P.

    2017-01-01

    Individual differences in decision-making are important in both normal populations and psychiatric conditions. Variability in decision-making could be mediated by different subjective utilities or by other processes. For example, while traditional economic accounts attribute risk aversion to a concave subjective utility curve, in practice other factors could affect risk behavior. This distinction may have important implications for understanding the biological basis of variability in decision-making and for developing interventions to improve decision-making. Another aspect of decision-making that may vary between individuals is the sensitivity of subjective utility to counterfactual outcomes (outcomes that could have occurred, but did not). We investigated decision-making in relation to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety, two traits that relate to psychiatric conditions but also vary in the general population. Subjects performed a decision-making task, in which they chose between low- and high-risk gambles to win 0, 20, or 40 points on each trial. Subjects then rated satisfaction after each outcome on a visual analog scale, indicating subjective utility. Hedonic capacity was positively associated with the subjective utility of winning 20 points but was not associated with the concavity of the subjective utility curve (constructed using the mean subjective utility of winning 0, 20, or 40 points). Consistent with economic theory, concavity of the subjective utility curve was associated with risk aversion. Hedonic capacity was independently associated with risk seeking (i.e., not mediated by the shape of the subjective utility curve), while trait anxiety was unrelated to risk preferences. Contrary to our expectations, counterfactual sensitivity was unrelated to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety. Nevertheless, trait anxiety was associated with a self-report measure of regret-proneness, suggesting that counterfactual influences may occur via a pathway that is separate

  12. Expected utility and catastrophic risk in a stochastic economy-climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ikefuji, M. [Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Osaka (Japan); Laeven, R.J.A.; Magnus, J.R. [Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands); Muris, C. [CentER, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands)

    2010-11-15

    In the context of extreme climate change, we ask how to conduct expected utility analysis in the presence of catastrophic risks. Economists typically model decision making under risk and uncertainty by expected utility with constant relative risk aversion (power utility); statisticians typically model economic catastrophes by probability distributions with heavy tails. Unfortunately, the expected utility framework is fragile with respect to heavy-tailed distributional assumptions. We specify a stochastic economy-climate model with power utility and explicitly demonstrate this fragility. We derive necessary and sufficient compatibility conditions on the utility function to avoid fragility and solve our stochastic economy-climate model for two examples of such compatible utility functions. We further develop and implement a procedure to learn the input parameters of our model and show that the model thus specified produces quite robust optimal policies. The numerical results indicate that higher levels of uncertainty (heavier tails) lead to less abatement and consumption, and to more investment, but this effect is not unlimited.

  13. Evaluation of treatment effects by ranking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halekoh, U; Kristensen, K

    2008-01-01

    In crop experiments measurements are often made by a judge evaluating the crops' conditions after treatment. In the present paper an analysis is proposed for experiments where plots of crops treated differently are mutually ranked. In the experimental layout the crops are treated on consecutive...... plots usually placed side by side in one or more rows. In the proposed method a judge ranks several neighbouring plots, say three, by ranking them from best to worst. For the next observation the judge moves on by no more than two plots, such that up to two plots will be re-evaluated again...... in a comparison with the new plot(s). Data from studies using this set-up were analysed by a Thurstonian random utility model, which assumed that the judge's rankings were obtained by comparing latent continuous utilities or treatment effects. For the latent utilities a variance component model was considered...

  14. Managing carbon regulatory risk in utility resource planning: Current practices in the Western United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan; Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles

    2008-01-01

    Concerns about global climate change have substantially increased the likelihood that future policy will seek to minimize carbon dioxide emissions. As such, even today, electric utilities are making resource planning and investment decisions that consider the possible implications of these future carbon regulations. In this article, we examine the manner in which utilities assess the financial risks associated with future carbon regulations within their long-term resource plans. We base our analysis on a review of the most recent resource plans filed by 15 electric utilities in the Western United States. Virtually all of these utilities made some effort to quantitatively evaluate the potential cost of future carbon regulations when analyzing alternate supply- and demand-side resource options for meeting customer load. Even without federal climate regulation in the US, the prospect of that regulation is already having an impact on utility decision-making and resource choices. That said, the methods and assumptions used by utilities to analyze carbon regulatory risk, and the impact of that analysis on their choice of a particular resource strategy, vary considerably, revealing a number of opportunities for analytic improvement. Though our review focuses on a subset of US electric utilities, this work holds implications for all electric utilities and energy policymakers who are seeking to minimize the compliance costs associated with future carbon regulations

  15. First rank symptoms: concepts and diagnostic utility

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1National Institute of Mental Health & Neurosciences (NIMHANS), Bangalore, India. 2Department of ... phenomenon that the person's culture would regard as totally .... prevalent in South East Asia when compared to the West, in the IPSS ...

  16. Determinants of Mental Health Care Utilization in a Suicide High-risk Group With Suicidal Ideation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun-Soo Kim

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The suicide rate in Korea is increasing every year, and is the highest among the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries. Psychiatric patients in particular have a higher risk of suicide than other patients. This study was performed to evaluate determinants of mental health care utilization among individuals at high risk for suicide. Methods: Korea Health Panel data from 2009 to 2011 were used. Subjects were individuals at high risk of suicide who had suicidal ideation, a past history of psychiatric illness, or had utilized outpatient services for a psychiatric disorder associated with suicidal ideation within the past year. The chi-square test and hierarchical logistic regression were used to identify significant determinants of mental health care utilization. Results: The total number of subjects with complete data on the variables in our model was 989. Individuals suffering from three or more chronic diseases used mental health care more frequently. Mental health care utilization was higher in subjects who had middle or high levels of educational attainment, were receiving Medical Aid, or had a large family size. Conclusions: It is important to control risk factors in high-risk groups as part of suicide prevention strategies. The clinical approach, which includes community-based intervention, entails the management of reduction of suicidal risk. Our study identified demographic characteristics that have a significant impact on mental health care utilization and should be considered in the development of suicide prevention strategies. Further studies should examine the effect of mental health care utilization on reducing suicidal ideation.

  17. Cultural theory and risk perception: validity and utility explored in the French context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenot, J.; Bonnefous, S.; Mays, C.

    1996-01-01

    Explaining perceived risk can draw upon factors related to the person (e.g. demographics, personality, social/professional status, political orientation), or to the risk source (e.g. health impacts, economic effects). According to Cultural Theory risk perceptions are culturally biased. Wildavsky and Dake operationalised the Cultural Theory with questionnaire scales and found that resulting 'cultural profiles' best predict individual differences in risk perception. A French version of their questionnaire was inserted into a representative national risk opinion survey of May 1993; 1022 adults (age 18 and over) were interviewed. Major results are presented. The four cultural scales (hierarchy, egalitarianism, fatalism and individualism) show high correlations with political orientation as expected, but also with, for example, age, gender, income and education level. However, scale relationships to perception of risk situations (twenty, mainly technological) are not as strong as expected. Sjoeberg found similar results in Sweden. The utility of the existing operationalisation of Cultural Theory for risk perception analysis is discussed. (author)

  18. Cultural theory and risk perception: validity and utility explored in the French context

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brenot, J.; Bonnefous, S.; Mays, C. [CEA Centre d`Etudes de Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France). Inst. de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire

    1996-12-31

    Explaining perceived risk can draw upon factors related to the person (e.g. demographics, personality, social/professional status, political orientation), or to the risk source (e.g. health impacts, economic effects). According to Cultural Theory risk perceptions are culturally biased. Wildavsky and Dake operationalised the Cultural Theory with questionnaire scales and found that resulting `cultural profiles` best predict individual differences in risk perception. A French version of their questionnaire was inserted into a representative national risk opinion survey of May 1993; 1022 adults (age 18 and over) were interviewed. Major results are presented. The four cultural scales (hierarchy, egalitarianism, fatalism and individualism) show high correlations with political orientation as expected, but also with, for example, age, gender, income and education level. However, scale relationships to perception of risk situations (twenty, mainly technological) are not as strong as expected. Sjoeberg found similar results in Sweden. The utility of the existing operationalisation of Cultural Theory for risk perception analysis is discussed. (author).

  19. Project risk management for development of non-utility power generators (NUGs)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lau, T.

    1990-01-01

    The growing Non-Utility Generation (NUG) industry has brought new opportunities and challenges for the insurance industry. There can be unique engineering and financial risks involved in the development of Non-Utility Power Generation projects. The use of new technologies to meet stringent environmental regulations and to improve project performance and efficiency presents new challenges to the project developers and designers. The lack of funding, resources and experience of some of these projects may create unusual risks that could result in failure or deficiency in the performance of the projects

  20. How to Rank Journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, Corey J A; Brook, Barry W

    2016-01-01

    There are now many methods available to assess the relative citation performance of peer-reviewed journals. Regardless of their individual faults and advantages, citation-based metrics are used by researchers to maximize the citation potential of their articles, and by employers to rank academic track records. The absolute value of any particular index is arguably meaningless unless compared to other journals, and different metrics result in divergent rankings. To provide a simple yet more objective way to rank journals within and among disciplines, we developed a κ-resampled composite journal rank incorporating five popular citation indices: Impact Factor, Immediacy Index, Source-Normalized Impact Per Paper, SCImago Journal Rank and Google 5-year h-index; this approach provides an index of relative rank uncertainty. We applied the approach to six sample sets of scientific journals from Ecology (n = 100 journals), Medicine (n = 100), Multidisciplinary (n = 50); Ecology + Multidisciplinary (n = 25), Obstetrics & Gynaecology (n = 25) and Marine Biology & Fisheries (n = 25). We then cross-compared the κ-resampled ranking for the Ecology + Multidisciplinary journal set to the results of a survey of 188 publishing ecologists who were asked to rank the same journals, and found a 0.68-0.84 Spearman's ρ correlation between the two rankings datasets. Our composite index approach therefore approximates relative journal reputation, at least for that discipline. Agglomerative and divisive clustering and multi-dimensional scaling techniques applied to the Ecology + Multidisciplinary journal set identified specific clusters of similarly ranked journals, with only Nature & Science separating out from the others. When comparing a selection of journals within or among disciplines, we recommend collecting multiple citation-based metrics for a sample of relevant and realistic journals to calculate the composite rankings and their relative uncertainty windows.

  1. The predictive validity of prospect theory versus expected utility in health utility measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abellan-Perpiñan, Jose Maria; Bleichrodt, Han; Pinto-Prades, Jose Luis

    2009-12-01

    Most health care evaluations today still assume expected utility even though the descriptive deficiencies of expected utility are well known. Prospect theory is the dominant descriptive alternative for expected utility. This paper tests whether prospect theory leads to better health evaluations than expected utility. The approach is purely descriptive: we explore how simple measurements together with prospect theory and expected utility predict choices and rankings between more complex stimuli. For decisions involving risk prospect theory is significantly more consistent with rankings and choices than expected utility. This conclusion no longer holds when we use prospect theory utilities and expected utilities to predict intertemporal decisions. The latter finding cautions against the common assumption in health economics that health state utilities are transferable across decision contexts. Our results suggest that the standard gamble and algorithms based on, should not be used to value health.

  2. On Page Rank

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoede, C.

    In this paper the concept of page rank for the world wide web is discussed. The possibility of describing the distribution of page rank by an exponential law is considered. It is shown that the concept is essentially equal to that of status score, a centrality measure discussed already in 1953 by

  3. On Rank and Nullity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobbs, David E.

    2012-01-01

    This note explains how Emil Artin's proof that row rank equals column rank for a matrix with entries in a field leads naturally to the formula for the nullity of a matrix and also to an algorithm for solving any system of linear equations in any number of variables. This material could be used in any course on matrix theory or linear algebra.

  4. Hitting the Rankings Jackpot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, David W.

    2008-01-01

    Recently, Samford University was ranked 27th in the nation in a report released by "Forbes" magazine. In this article, the author relates how the people working at Samford University were surprised at its ranking. Although Samford is the largest privately institution in Alabama, its distinguished academic achievements aren't even…

  5. Implications of deregulation in natural gas industry on utility risks and returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addepalli, Rajendra P.

    This thesis examines the changes in risk and required return on capital for local distribution utility companies in the increasingly competitive natural gas industry. The deregulation in the industry impacts the LDCs in several ways. First, with the introduction of competition consumers have been given choices among suppliers besides the traditional monopoly, the local utility, for purchasing their natural gas supply needs. Second, with the introduction of competition, some of the interstate pipelines were stuck with 'Take Or Pay' contracts and other costs that resulted in 'stranded costs', which have been passed on to customers of the pipeline including the LDCs. Third, the new obligation for the LDCs to purchase gas from the market, as opposed to buying it from pipelines and passing on the costs to its customers, brought opportunities and risks as well. Finally, with the introduction of competition, in some states LDCs have been allowed to enter into unregulated ventures to increase their profits. In the thesis we first develop a multifactor model (MFM) to explain historical common stock returns of individual utilities and of utility portfolios. We use 'rolling regression' analysis to analyze how different variables explain the variation in stock returns over time. Second, we conduct event studies to analyze the events in the deregulation process that had significant impacts on the LDC returns. Finally we assess the changes in risk and required return on capital for the LDCs over a 15 year time frame, covering the deregulation period. We employ four aspects in the examination of risk and return profile of the utilities: measuring (a) changes in required return on common equity and Weighted Average Cost of Capital, (b) changes in risk premium (WACC less an interest rate proxy), (c) changes in utility bond ratings, and (d) changes in dividend payments, new debt and equity issuances. We perform regression analysis to explain the changes in the required WACC using

  6. Statistical Optimality in Multipartite Ranking and Ordinal Regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uematsu, Kazuki; Lee, Yoonkyung

    2015-05-01

    Statistical optimality in multipartite ranking is investigated as an extension of bipartite ranking. We consider the optimality of ranking algorithms through minimization of the theoretical risk which combines pairwise ranking errors of ordinal categories with differential ranking costs. The extension shows that for a certain class of convex loss functions including exponential loss, the optimal ranking function can be represented as a ratio of weighted conditional probability of upper categories to lower categories, where the weights are given by the misranking costs. This result also bridges traditional ranking methods such as proportional odds model in statistics with various ranking algorithms in machine learning. Further, the analysis of multipartite ranking with different costs provides a new perspective on non-smooth list-wise ranking measures such as the discounted cumulative gain and preference learning. We illustrate our findings with simulation study and real data analysis.

  7. Balancing Cost and Risk: The Treatment of Renewable Energy inWestern Utility Resource Plans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2005-09-01

    Markets for renewable electricity have grown significantly in recent years, motivated in part by federal tax incentives and in part by state renewables portfolio standards and renewable energy funds. State renewables portfolio standards, for example, motivated approximately 45% of the 4,300 MW of wind power installed in the U.S. from 2001 through 2004, while renewable energy funds supported an additional 15% of these installations. Despite the importance of these state policies, a less widely recognized driver for renewable energy market growth is poised to also play an important role in the coming years: utility integrated resource planning (IRP). Formal resource planning processes have re-emerged in recent years as an important tool for utilities and regulators, particularly in regions where retail competition has failed to take root. In the western United States, recent resource plans contemplate a significant amount of renewable energy additions. These planned additions - primarily coming from wind power - are motivated by the improved economics of wind power, a growing acceptance of wind by electric utilities, and an increasing recognition of the inherent risks (e.g., natural gas price risk, environmental compliance risk) in fossil-based generation portfolios. The treatment of renewable energy in utility resource plans is not uniform, however. Assumptions about the direct and indirect costs of renewable resources, as well as resource availability, differ, as do approaches to incorporating such resources into the candidate portfolios that are analyzed in utility IRPs. The treatment of natural gas price risk, as well as the risk of future environmental regulations, also varies substantially. How utilities balance expected portfolio cost versus risk in selecting a preferred portfolio also differs. Each of these variables may have a substantial effect on the degree to which renewable energy contributes to the preferred portfolio of each utility IRP. This article

  8. Financial costs due to excess health risks among active employees of a utility company.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Louis; Schultz, Alyssa; Schnueringer, Elaine; Edington, Dee W

    2006-09-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the health risk-related excess costs of time away from work, medical claims, pharmacy claims, and total costs with and without considering the prevalence of health risks. A total of 2082 of 4266 employees of a Midwest utility participated in a health risk appraisal (HRA). Individuals were classified by their HRA participation status and also by 15 health risks. Total and excess costs were analyzed for all employees. There were significant excess costs due to individual risks and overall excess health risks in all cost measures. Both excess cost per risk and prevalence of the risk were important factors in determining the excess costs in the population. As compared with low-risk participants, HRA nonparticipants and the medium- and high-risk participants were 1.99, 2.22, and 3.97 times more likely to be high cost status. Approximately one third of corporate costs in medical claims, pharmacy claims, and time away from work could be defined as excess costs associated with excess health risks.

  9. Information risk in emerging utility markets: The role of commission- sponsored audits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wirick, D.W.; Lawton, R.W.; Burns, R.E.; Lee, S.

    1996-03-01

    As public utilities and regulators begin to define their new relationship under various forms of regulations, some have questioned the continuing need for commission-sponsored audits. This study evaluates the role of such audits by examining their core purpose: the reduction of information risk (risk that a commission might make a wrong decision because of reliance on faulty information). It identifies five generic types of information that will be needed by commissions in the future and describes a cost-benefit analysis for identifying the appropriate method for mitigating information risk for state regulatory commissions.

  10. The development, validation, and utility of the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 Risk Score (DPTRS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sosenko, Jay M; Skyler, Jay S; Palmer, Jerry P

    2015-08-01

    This report details the development, validation, and utility of the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score (DPTRS) for type 1 diabetes (T1D). Proportional hazards regression was used to develop the DPTRS model which includes the glucose and C-peptide sums from oral glucose tolerance tests at 30, 60, 90, and 120 min, the log fasting C-peptide, age, and the log BMI. The DPTRS was externally validated in the TrialNet Natural History Study cohort (TNNHS). In a study of the application of the DPTRS, the findings showed that it could be used to identify normoglycemic individuals who were at a similar risk for T1D as those with dysglycemia. The DPTRS could also be used to identify lower risk dysglycemic individuals. Risk estimates of individuals deemed to be at higher risk according to DPTRS values did not differ significantly between the DPT-1 and the TNNHS; whereas, the risk estimates for those with dysglycemia were significantly higher in DPT-1. Individuals with very high DPTRS values were found to be at such marked risk for T1D that they could reasonably be considered to be in a pre-diabetic state. The findings indicate that the DPTRS has utility in T1D prevention trials and for identifying pre-diabetic individuals.

  11. Social signals of safety and risk confer utility and have asymmetric effects on observers' choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Dongil; Christopoulos, George I; King-Casas, Brooks; Ball, Sheryl B; Chiu, Pearl H

    2015-06-01

    Individuals' risk attitudes are known to guide choices about uncertain options. However, in the presence of others' decisions, these choices can be swayed and manifest as riskier or safer behavior than one would express alone. To test the mechanisms underlying effective social 'nudges' in human decision-making, we used functional neuroimaging and a task in which participants made choices about gambles alone and after observing others' selections. Against three alternative explanations, we found that observing others' choices of gambles increased the subjective value (utility) of those gambles for the observer. This 'other-conferred utility' was encoded in ventromedial prefrontal cortex, and these neural signals predicted conformity. We further identified a parametric interaction with individual risk preferences in anterior cingulate cortex and insula. These data provide a neuromechanistic account of how information from others is integrated with individual preferences that may explain preference-congruent susceptibility to social signals of safety and risk.

  12. Recurrent fuzzy ranking methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajjari, Tayebeh

    2012-11-01

    With the increasing development of fuzzy set theory in various scientific fields and the need to compare fuzzy numbers in different areas. Therefore, Ranking of fuzzy numbers plays a very important role in linguistic decision-making, engineering, business and some other fuzzy application systems. Several strategies have been proposed for ranking of fuzzy numbers. Each of these techniques has been shown to produce non-intuitive results in certain case. In this paper, we reviewed some recent ranking methods, which will be useful for the researchers who are interested in this area.

  13. Report on probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) quality assurance in utilization of risk information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-12-01

    Recently in Japan, introduction of nuclear safety regulations using risk information such as probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has been considered and utilization of risk information in the rational and practical measures on safety assurance has made a progress to start with the operation or inspection area. The report compiled results of investigation and studies of PSA quality assurance in risk-informed activities in the USA. Relevant regulatory guide and standard review plan as well as issues and recommendations were reviewed for technical adequacy and advancement of probabilistic risk assessment technology in risk-informed decision making. Useful and important information to be referred as issues in PSA quality assurance was identified. (T. Tanaka)

  14. Ranking as parameter estimation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kárný, Miroslav; Guy, Tatiana Valentine

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 4, č. 2 (2009), s. 142-158 ISSN 1745-7645 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 2C06001; GA AV ČR 1ET100750401; GA MŠk 1M0572 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : ranking * Bayesian estimation * negotiation * modelling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2009/AS/karny- ranking as parameter estimation.pdf

  15. Evolution of strategic risks under future scenarios for improved utility master plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luís, Ana; Lickorish, Fiona; Pollard, Simon

    2016-01-01

    Integrated, long-term risk management in the water sector is poorly developed. Whilst scenario planning has been applied to singular issues (e.g. climate change), it often misses a link to risk management because the likelihood of impacts in the long-term are frequently unaccounted for in these analyses. Here we apply the morphological approach to scenario development for a case study utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres (EPAL). A baseline portfolio of strategic risks threatening the achievement of EPAL's corporate objectives was evolved through the lens of three future scenarios, 'water scarcity', 'financial resource scarcity' and 'strong economic growth', built on drivers such as climate, demographic, economic, regulatory and technological changes and validated through a set of expert workshops. The results represent how the baseline set of risks might develop over a 30 year period, allowing threats and opportunities to be identified and enabling strategies for master plans to be devised. We believe this to be the first combined use of risk and futures methods applied to a portfolio of strategic risks in the water utility sector. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Brachytherapy Boost Utilization and Survival in Unfavorable-risk Prostate Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Skyler B; Lester-Coll, Nataniel H; Kelly, Jacqueline R; Kann, Benjamin H; Yu, James B; Nath, Sameer K

    2017-11-01

    There are limited comparative survival data for prostate cancer (PCa) patients managed with a low-dose rate brachytherapy (LDR-B) boost and dose-escalated external-beam radiotherapy (DE-EBRT) alone. To compare overall survival (OS) for men with unfavorable PCa between LDR-B and DE-EBRT groups. Using the National Cancer Data Base, we identified men with unfavorable PCa treated between 2004 and 2012 with androgen suppression (AS) and either EBRT followed by LDR-B or DE-EBRT (75.6-86.4Gy). Treatment selection was evaluated using logistic regression and annual percentage proportions. OS was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, Cox proportional hazards, and propensity score matching. We identified 25038 men between 2004 and 2012, during which LDR-B boost utilization decreased from 29% to 14%. LDR-B was associated with better OS on univariate (7-yr OS: 82% vs 73%; pLDR-B boost (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.66-0.89). The OS benefit of LDR-B boost persisted when limited to men aged LDR-B boost utilization declined and was associated with better OS compared to DE-EBRT alone. LDR-B boost is probably the ideal treatment option for men with unfavorable PCa, pending long-term results of randomized trials. We compared radiotherapy utilization and survival for prostate cancer (PCa) patients using a national database. We found that low-dose rate brachytherapy (LDR-B) boost, a method being used less frequently, was associated with better overall survival when compared to dose-escalated external-beam radiotherapy alone for men with unfavorable PCa. Randomized trials are needed to confirm that LDR-B boost is the ideal treatment. Copyright © 2017 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Hierarchical partial order ranking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlsen, Lars

    2008-01-01

    Assessing the potential impact on environmental and human health from the production and use of chemicals or from polluted sites involves a multi-criteria evaluation scheme. A priori several parameters are to address, e.g., production tonnage, specific release scenarios, geographical and site-specific factors in addition to various substance dependent parameters. Further socio-economic factors may be taken into consideration. The number of parameters to be included may well appear to be prohibitive for developing a sensible model. The study introduces hierarchical partial order ranking (HPOR) that remedies this problem. By HPOR the original parameters are initially grouped based on their mutual connection and a set of meta-descriptors is derived representing the ranking corresponding to the single groups of descriptors, respectively. A second partial order ranking is carried out based on the meta-descriptors, the final ranking being disclosed though average ranks. An illustrative example on the prioritisation of polluted sites is given. - Hierarchical partial order ranking of polluted sites has been developed for prioritization based on a large number of parameters

  18. Ranking Adverse Drug Reactions With Crowdsourcing

    KAUST Repository

    Gottlieb, Assaf

    2015-03-23

    Background: There is no publicly available resource that provides the relative severity of adverse drug reactions (ADRs). Such a resource would be useful for several applications, including assessment of the risks and benefits of drugs and improvement of patient-centered care. It could also be used to triage predictions of drug adverse events. Objective: The intent of the study was to rank ADRs according to severity. Methods: We used Internet-based crowdsourcing to rank ADRs according to severity. We assigned 126,512 pairwise comparisons of ADRs to 2589 Amazon Mechanical Turk workers and used these comparisons to rank order 2929 ADRs. Results: There is good correlation (rho=.53) between the mortality rates associated with ADRs and their rank. Our ranking highlights severe drug-ADR predictions, such as cardiovascular ADRs for raloxifene and celecoxib. It also triages genes associated with severe ADRs such as epidermal growth-factor receptor (EGFR), associated with glioblastoma multiforme, and SCN1A, associated with epilepsy. Conclusions: ADR ranking lays a first stepping stone in personalized drug risk assessment. Ranking of ADRs using crowdsourcing may have useful clinical and financial implications, and should be further investigated in the context of health care decision making.

  19. Ranking adverse drug reactions with crowdsourcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottlieb, Assaf; Hoehndorf, Robert; Dumontier, Michel; Altman, Russ B

    2015-03-23

    There is no publicly available resource that provides the relative severity of adverse drug reactions (ADRs). Such a resource would be useful for several applications, including assessment of the risks and benefits of drugs and improvement of patient-centered care. It could also be used to triage predictions of drug adverse events. The intent of the study was to rank ADRs according to severity. We used Internet-based crowdsourcing to rank ADRs according to severity. We assigned 126,512 pairwise comparisons of ADRs to 2589 Amazon Mechanical Turk workers and used these comparisons to rank order 2929 ADRs. There is good correlation (rho=.53) between the mortality rates associated with ADRs and their rank. Our ranking highlights severe drug-ADR predictions, such as cardiovascular ADRs for raloxifene and celecoxib. It also triages genes associated with severe ADRs such as epidermal growth-factor receptor (EGFR), associated with glioblastoma multiforme, and SCN1A, associated with epilepsy. ADR ranking lays a first stepping stone in personalized drug risk assessment. Ranking of ADRs using crowdsourcing may have useful clinical and financial implications, and should be further investigated in the context of health care decision making.

  20. Multiplex PageRank.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halu, Arda; Mondragón, Raúl J; Panzarasa, Pietro; Bianconi, Ginestra

    2013-01-01

    Many complex systems can be described as multiplex networks in which the same nodes can interact with one another in different layers, thus forming a set of interacting and co-evolving networks. Examples of such multiplex systems are social networks where people are involved in different types of relationships and interact through various forms of communication media. The ranking of nodes in multiplex networks is one of the most pressing and challenging tasks that research on complex networks is currently facing. When pairs of nodes can be connected through multiple links and in multiple layers, the ranking of nodes should necessarily reflect the importance of nodes in one layer as well as their importance in other interdependent layers. In this paper, we draw on the idea of biased random walks to define the Multiplex PageRank centrality measure in which the effects of the interplay between networks on the centrality of nodes are directly taken into account. In particular, depending on the intensity of the interaction between layers, we define the Additive, Multiplicative, Combined, and Neutral versions of Multiplex PageRank, and show how each version reflects the extent to which the importance of a node in one layer affects the importance the node can gain in another layer. We discuss these measures and apply them to an online multiplex social network. Findings indicate that taking the multiplex nature of the network into account helps uncover the emergence of rankings of nodes that differ from the rankings obtained from one single layer. Results provide support in favor of the salience of multiplex centrality measures, like Multiplex PageRank, for assessing the prominence of nodes embedded in multiple interacting networks, and for shedding a new light on structural properties that would otherwise remain undetected if each of the interacting networks were analyzed in isolation.

  1. Multiplex PageRank.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arda Halu

    Full Text Available Many complex systems can be described as multiplex networks in which the same nodes can interact with one another in different layers, thus forming a set of interacting and co-evolving networks. Examples of such multiplex systems are social networks where people are involved in different types of relationships and interact through various forms of communication media. The ranking of nodes in multiplex networks is one of the most pressing and challenging tasks that research on complex networks is currently facing. When pairs of nodes can be connected through multiple links and in multiple layers, the ranking of nodes should necessarily reflect the importance of nodes in one layer as well as their importance in other interdependent layers. In this paper, we draw on the idea of biased random walks to define the Multiplex PageRank centrality measure in which the effects of the interplay between networks on the centrality of nodes are directly taken into account. In particular, depending on the intensity of the interaction between layers, we define the Additive, Multiplicative, Combined, and Neutral versions of Multiplex PageRank, and show how each version reflects the extent to which the importance of a node in one layer affects the importance the node can gain in another layer. We discuss these measures and apply them to an online multiplex social network. Findings indicate that taking the multiplex nature of the network into account helps uncover the emergence of rankings of nodes that differ from the rankings obtained from one single layer. Results provide support in favor of the salience of multiplex centrality measures, like Multiplex PageRank, for assessing the prominence of nodes embedded in multiple interacting networks, and for shedding a new light on structural properties that would otherwise remain undetected if each of the interacting networks were analyzed in isolation.

  2. Utility of the exercise electrocardiogram testing in sudden cardiac death risk stratification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Refaat, Marwan M; Hotait, Mostafa; Tseng, Zian H

    2014-07-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) remains a major public health problem. Current established criteria identifying those at risk of sudden arrhythmic death, and likely to benefit from implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs), are neither sensitive nor specific. Exercise electrocardiogram (ECG) testing was traditionally used for information concerning patients' symptoms, exercise capacity, cardiovascular function, myocardial ischemia detection, and hemodynamic responses during activity in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. We conducted a systematic review of MEDLINE on the utility of exercise ECG testing in SCD risk stratification. Exercise testing can unmask suspected primary electrical diseases in certain patients (catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia or concealed long QT syndrome) and can be effectively utilized to risk stratify patients at an increased (such as early repolarization syndrome and Brugada syndrome) or decreased risk of SCD, such as the loss of preexcitation on exercise testing in asymptomatic Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome. Exercise ECG testing helps in SCD risk stratification in patients with and without arrhythmogenic hereditary syndromes. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Concave utility, transaction costs, and risk in measuring discounting of delayed rewards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, Kris N; Santiesteban, Mariana

    2003-01-01

    Research has consistently found that the decline in the present values of delayed rewards as delay increases is better fit by hyperbolic than by exponential delay-discounting functions. However, concave utility, transaction costs, and risk each could produce hyperbolic-looking data, even when the underlying discounting function is exponential. In Experiments 1 (N = 45) and 2 (N = 103), participants placed bids indicating their present values of real future monetary rewards in computer-based 2nd-price auctions. Both experiments suggest that utility is not sufficiently concave to account for the superior fit of hyperbolic functions. Experiment 2 provided no evidence that the effects of transaction costs and risk are large enough to account for the superior fit of hyperbolic functions.

  4. Groundwater contaminant plume ranking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-08-01

    Containment plumes at Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project sites were ranked to assist in Subpart B (i.e., restoration requirements of 40 CFR Part 192) compliance strategies for each site, to prioritize aquifer restoration, and to budget future requests and allocations. The rankings roughly estimate hazards to the environment and human health, and thus assist in determining for which sites cleanup, if appropriate, will provide the greatest benefits for funds available. The rankings are based on the scores that were obtained using the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Modified Hazard Ranking System (MHRS). The MHRS and HRS consider and score three hazard modes for a site: migration, fire and explosion, and direct contact. The migration hazard mode score reflects the potential for harm to humans or the environment from migration of a hazardous substance off a site by groundwater, surface water, and air; it is a composite of separate scores for each of these routes. For ranking the containment plumes at UMTRA Project sites, it was assumed that each site had been remediated in compliance with the EPA standards and that relict contaminant plumes were present. Therefore, only the groundwater route was scored, and the surface water and air routes were not considered. Section 2.0 of this document describes the assumptions and procedures used to score the groundwater route, and Section 3.0 provides the resulting scores for each site. 40 tabs

  5. Utilizing toxicogenomic data to understand chemical mechanism of action in risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, Vickie S., E-mail: wilson.vickie@epa.gov [National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Keshava, Nagalakshmi [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States); Hester, Susan [National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Segal, Deborah; Chiu, Weihsueh [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States); Thompson, Chad M. [ToxStrategies, Inc., 23501 Cinco Ranch Blvd., Suite G265, Katy, TX 77494 (United States); Euling, Susan Y. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    The predominant role of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment, thus far, has been one of augmentation of more traditional in vitro and in vivo toxicology data. This article focuses on the current available examples of instances where toxicogenomic data has been evaluated in human health risk assessment (e.g., acetochlor and arsenicals) which have been limited to the application of toxicogenomic data to inform mechanism of action. This article reviews the regulatory policy backdrop and highlights important efforts to ultimately achieve regulatory acceptance. A number of research efforts on specific chemicals that were designed for risk assessment purposes have employed mechanism or mode of action hypothesis testing and generating strategies. The strides made by large scale efforts to utilize toxicogenomic data in screening, testing, and risk assessment are also discussed. These efforts include both the refinement of methodologies for performing toxicogenomics studies and analysis of the resultant data sets. The current issues limiting the application of toxicogenomics to define mode or mechanism of action in risk assessment are discussed together with interrelated research needs. In summary, as chemical risk assessment moves away from a single mechanism of action approach toward a toxicity pathway-based paradigm, we envision that toxicogenomic data from multiple technologies (e.g., proteomics, metabolomics, transcriptomics, supportive RT-PCR studies) can be used in conjunction with one another to understand the complexities of multiple, and possibly interacting, pathways affected by chemicals which will impact human health risk assessment.

  6. Utilizing toxicogenomic data to understand chemical mechanism of action in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, Vickie S.; Keshava, Nagalakshmi; Hester, Susan; Segal, Deborah; Chiu, Weihsueh; Thompson, Chad M.; Euling, Susan Y.

    2013-01-01

    The predominant role of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment, thus far, has been one of augmentation of more traditional in vitro and in vivo toxicology data. This article focuses on the current available examples of instances where toxicogenomic data has been evaluated in human health risk assessment (e.g., acetochlor and arsenicals) which have been limited to the application of toxicogenomic data to inform mechanism of action. This article reviews the regulatory policy backdrop and highlights important efforts to ultimately achieve regulatory acceptance. A number of research efforts on specific chemicals that were designed for risk assessment purposes have employed mechanism or mode of action hypothesis testing and generating strategies. The strides made by large scale efforts to utilize toxicogenomic data in screening, testing, and risk assessment are also discussed. These efforts include both the refinement of methodologies for performing toxicogenomics studies and analysis of the resultant data sets. The current issues limiting the application of toxicogenomics to define mode or mechanism of action in risk assessment are discussed together with interrelated research needs. In summary, as chemical risk assessment moves away from a single mechanism of action approach toward a toxicity pathway-based paradigm, we envision that toxicogenomic data from multiple technologies (e.g., proteomics, metabolomics, transcriptomics, supportive RT-PCR studies) can be used in conjunction with one another to understand the complexities of multiple, and possibly interacting, pathways affected by chemicals which will impact human health risk assessment

  7. Ranking economic history journals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Di Vaio, Gianfranco; Weisdorf, Jacob Louis

    2010-01-01

    This study ranks-for the first time-12 international academic journals that have economic history as their main topic. The ranking is based on data collected for the year 2007. Journals are ranked using standard citation analysis where we adjust for age, size and self-citation of journals. We also...... compare the leading economic history journals with the leading journals in economics in order to measure the influence on economics of economic history, and vice versa. With a few exceptions, our results confirm the general idea about what economic history journals are the most influential for economic...... history, and that, although economic history is quite independent from economics as a whole, knowledge exchange between the two fields is indeed going on....

  8. Ranking Economic History Journals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Di Vaio, Gianfranco; Weisdorf, Jacob Louis

    This study ranks - for the first time - 12 international academic journals that have economic history as their main topic. The ranking is based on data collected for the year 2007. Journals are ranked using standard citation analysis where we adjust for age, size and self-citation of journals. We...... also compare the leading economic history journals with the leading journals in economics in order to measure the influence on economics of economic history, and vice versa. With a few exceptions, our results confirm the general idea about what economic history journals are the most influential...... for economic history, and that, although economic history is quite independent from economics as a whole, knowledge exchange between the two fields is indeed going on....

  9. Dynamic Matrix Rank

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frandsen, Gudmund Skovbjerg; Frandsen, Peter Frands

    2009-01-01

    We consider maintaining information about the rank of a matrix under changes of the entries. For n×n matrices, we show an upper bound of O(n1.575) arithmetic operations and a lower bound of Ω(n) arithmetic operations per element change. The upper bound is valid when changing up to O(n0.575) entries...... in a single column of the matrix. We also give an algorithm that maintains the rank using O(n2) arithmetic operations per rank one update. These bounds appear to be the first nontrivial bounds for the problem. The upper bounds are valid for arbitrary fields, whereas the lower bound is valid for algebraically...... closed fields. The upper bound for element updates uses fast rectangular matrix multiplication, and the lower bound involves further development of an earlier technique for proving lower bounds for dynamic computation of rational functions....

  10. Social signals of safety and risk confer utility and have asymmetric effects on observers’ choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Dongil; Ball, Sheryl B; Chiu, Pearl H

    2015-01-01

    Individuals’ risk attitudes are known to guide choices about uncertain options. However, in the presence of others’ decisions, these choices can be swayed and manifest as riskier or safer behavior than one would express alone. To test the mechanisms underlying effective social ‘nudges’ in human decision-making, we used functional neuroimaging and a task in which participants made choices about gambles alone and after observing others’ selections. Against three alternative explanations, we found that observing others’ choices of gambles increased the subjective value (utility) of those gambles for the observer. This ‘other-conferred utility’ was encoded in ventromedial prefrontal cortex, and these neural signals predicted conformity. We further identified a parametric interaction with individual risk preferences in anterior cingulate cortex and insula. These data provide a neuromechanistic account of how information from others is integrated with individual preferences that may explain preference-congruent susceptibility to social signals of safety and risk. PMID:25984890

  11. EFSA Panel on Biological Hazards (BIOHAZ) Panel; Scientific Opinion on the risk posed by pathogens in food of non-animal origin. Part 1 (outbreak data analysis and risk ranking of food/pathogen combinations)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Tine; Baggesen, Dorte Lau

    shelf life. Shortcomings in the approach using outbreak data were discussed. The top ranking food/pathogen combination was Salmonellaspp. and leafy greens eaten raw followed by (in equal rank) Salmonellaspp. and bulb and stem vegetables, Salmonellaspp. and tomatoes, Salmonellaspp. and melons...

  12. Comparative Pessimism or Optimism: Depressed Mood, Risk-Taking, Social Utility and Desirability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milhabet, Isabelle; Le Barbenchon, Emmanuelle; Cambon, Laurent; Molina, Guylaine

    2015-03-05

    Comparative optimism can be defined as a self-serving, asymmetric judgment of the future. It is often thought to be beneficial and socially accepted, whereas comparative pessimism is correlated with depression and socially rejected. Our goal was to examine the social acceptance of comparative optimism and the social rejection of comparative pessimism in two dimensions of social judgment, social desirability and social utility, considering the attributions of dysphoria and risk-taking potential (studies 2 and 3) on outlooks on the future. In three experiments, the participants assessed either one (study 1) or several (studies 2 and 3) fictional targets in two dimensions, social utility and social desirability. Targets exhibiting comparatively optimistic or pessimistic outlooks on the future were presented as non-depressed, depressed, or neither (control condition) (study 1); non-depressed or depressed (study 2); and non-depressed or in control condition (study 3). Two significant results were obtained: (1) social rejection of comparative pessimism in the social desirability dimension, which can be explained by its depressive feature; and (2) comparative optimism was socially accepted on the social utility dimension, which can be explained by the perception that comparatively optimistic individuals are potential risk-takers.

  13. Diversifying customer review rankings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krestel, Ralf; Dokoohaki, Nima

    2015-06-01

    E-commerce Web sites owe much of their popularity to consumer reviews accompanying product descriptions. On-line customers spend hours and hours going through heaps of textual reviews to decide which products to buy. At the same time, each popular product has thousands of user-generated reviews, making it impossible for a buyer to read everything. Current approaches to display reviews to users or recommend an individual review for a product are based on the recency or helpfulness of each review. In this paper, we present a framework to rank product reviews by optimizing the coverage of the ranking with respect to sentiment or aspects, or by summarizing all reviews with the top-K reviews in the ranking. To accomplish this, we make use of the assigned star rating for a product as an indicator for a review's sentiment polarity and compare bag-of-words (language model) with topic models (latent Dirichlet allocation) as a mean to represent aspects. Our evaluation on manually annotated review data from a commercial review Web site demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach, outperforming plain recency ranking by 30% and obtaining best results by combining language and topic model representations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. College Rankings. ERIC Digest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holub, Tamara

    The popularity of college ranking surveys published by "U.S. News and World Report" and other magazines is indisputable, but the methodologies used to measure the quality of higher education institutions have come under fire by scholars and college officials. Criticisms have focused on methodological flaws, such as failure to consider…

  15. OutRank

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Emmanuel; Assent, Ira; Steinhausen, Uwe

    2008-01-01

    Outlier detection is an important data mining task for consistency checks, fraud detection, etc. Binary decision making on whether or not an object is an outlier is not appropriate in many applications and moreover hard to parametrize. Thus, recently, methods for outlier ranking have been proposed...

  16. Neurobiological studies of risk assessment: a comparison of expected utility and mean-variance approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Acremont, Mathieu; Bossaerts, Peter

    2008-12-01

    When modeling valuation under uncertainty, economists generally prefer expected utility because it has an axiomatic foundation, meaning that the resulting choices will satisfy a number of rationality requirements. In expected utility theory, values are computed by multiplying probabilities of each possible state of nature by the payoff in that state and summing the results. The drawback of this approach is that all state probabilities need to be dealt with separately, which becomes extremely cumbersome when it comes to learning. Finance academics and professionals, however, prefer to value risky prospects in terms of a trade-off between expected reward and risk, where the latter is usually measured in terms of reward variance. This mean-variance approach is fast and simple and greatly facilitates learning, but it impedes assigning values to new gambles on the basis of those of known ones. To date, it is unclear whether the human brain computes values in accordance with expected utility theory or with mean-variance analysis. In this article, we discuss the theoretical and empirical arguments that favor one or the other theory. We also propose a new experimental paradigm that could determine whether the human brain follows the expected utility or the mean-variance approach. Behavioral results of implementation of the paradigm are discussed.

  17. Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Melucci, Massimo

    2011-01-01

    The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...

  18. Pilot research project of risk communication on nuclear technology and its utilization. Toward communication and collaboration with community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuchiya, Tomoko

    2003-01-01

    Although the importance of risk communication has been pointed out over the last decade in nuclear community, both public authorities and nuclear industry have not conducted the definite actions yet. It will be reflected in the public eye that nuclear community's attitude toward communication and consultation with the public about risk issues is half-hearted, comparing with chemical and food safety fields which recently launched their risk communication activities. In this study, we conduct risk communication experiments on some risk issues associated with nuclear technology and its utilization in Tokai village, for the purpose of establishment of risk communication in our society that might be one of the new relationships between science and technology and society. The outcomes of FY2002 study are the following threefold; 1) preparation of risk communication experiments on nuclear technology and its utilization, 2) assessment of social effects of risk communication activities, 3) preparation of practical guidebook for risk communication experiments. (J.P.N.)

  19. Symptomatic Avascular Necrosis: An Understudied Risk Factor for Acute Care Utilization by Patients with SCD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Tiffany; Campbell, Timothy; Ciuffetelli, Isabella; Haywood, Carlton; Carroll, C. Patrick; Resar, Linda M.S.; Strouse, John J.; Lanzkron, Sophie

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Sickle cell disease (SCD) is associated with high healthcare utilization rates and poor outcomes in a subset of patients, although the underlying factors that predict this phenotype are poorly understood. Prior studies suggest that comorbid avascular necrosis (AVN) contributes to high healthcare utilization. We sought to clarify whether AVN independently predicts acute care utilization in adults with SCD and to identify characteristics of those with AVN that predict higher utilization. Methods We reviewed the medical records of 87 patients with SCD with symptomatic AVN and compared acute care utilization and clinical characteristics with 87 sex- and age-matched patients with SCD without symptomatic AVN. Patients with ≥2 years of follow-up were included. Outcomes were compared using bivariate analysis and multivariate regression. Results Our study included 1381 follow-up years, with a median of 7 years per patient. The AVN cohort had greater median rates of urgent care visits (3.2/year vs 1.3/year; P = 0.0155), admissions (1.3/year vs 0.4/year; P = 0.0002), and admission days (5.1 days/year vs 1.8 days/year; P = 0.0007). History of high utilization (odds ratio [OR] 4.28; P = 0.001), acute chest syndrome (OR 3.12; P = 0.005), pneumonia (OR 3.20; P = 0.023), hydroxyurea therapy (OR 2.23; P = 0.0136), and long-term transfusion (OR 2.33; P = 0.014) were associated with AVN. In a median regression model, AVN, acute chest syndrome, and pneumonia were independently associated with greater urgent care visits and admissions. Conclusions Symptomatic AVN was found to be an independent risk factor for acute care utilization in patients with SCD. Because this is a potentially modifiable factor, further studies are urgently needed to determine whether AVN prevention/early treatment interventions will alter utilization and improve outcomes for patients with SCD. PMID:27598353

  20. Utilization of a risk matrix based on Probabilistic Safety Analysis to improve nuclear safety in NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stubbe, Gerald

    2010-01-01

    PSA models. Those asymmetries are characterized by the fact that, for instance, a LOCA is considered to occur only on a certain primary loop. So, to take that weakness into account, we have decided to group the different redundant equipments of a function as one. This leads to some conservatism. For instance, if you have 3 LPSI pumps, you group those and consider as one. Uncertainties are also a threat for the PSA models. You must be sure that the model you use do not have 'cliff edge' effects. A complete sensitivity study can be enough to demonstrate that the uncertainties are bounded and understood. By use of the PSA models, we can give an importance factor to each equipment. This qualitative approach of quantitative data is expressed by two quantities: The Fussel Vessely (FV) and the Risk Increased Factor (RIF). The combination of those 2 factors can lead to the ranking of the equipment in three categories: Highly Safety Significant (HSS), Medium Safety Significant (MSS), Low Safety Significant (LSS). This ranking can be done globally, for all sequences, or initiator by initiator. The latter one is used to construct our matrix. It permits a larger comprehension of the phenomena following an initiator. And this is the goal of our risk matrix. A frequency of occurrence is assigned to each initiators, depending on generic data, or plant specific data for the more frequent ones. As an initiator occurs, you have a conditional probability to go to core damage. We call it the severity. We will assign a set of colour, representing the importance of the severity and the frequency of occurrence. This permits us to have a clear overview of what could happen to the plant. One of the main advantages of this matrix is to link, with a risk approach, equipments that are not linked together within the technical specifications of the plant. As example, in the NPP of GDF-Suez, we have a second level for the safeguards systems. In the design phase, it was to provide a protection

  1. A risk analysis approach applied to field surveillance in utility meters in legal metrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues Filho, B. A.; Nonato, N. S.; Carvalho, A. D.

    2018-03-01

    Field surveillance represents the level of control in metrological supervision responsible for checking the conformity of measuring instruments in-service. Utility meters represent the majority of measuring instruments produced by notified bodies due to self-verification in Brazil. They play a major role in the economy once electricity, gas and water are the main inputs to industries in their production processes. Then, to optimize the resources allocated to control these devices, the present study applied a risk analysis in order to identify among the 11 manufacturers notified to self-verification, the instruments that demand field surveillance.

  2. Using changes in agricultural utility to quantify future climate-induced risk to conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, Lyndon D; Paroz, Lydie-Line; Bradley, Bethany A; Green, Jonathan M H; Hole, David G; Holness, Stephen; Ziv, Guy; Oppenheimer, Michael G; Wilcove, David S

    2014-04-01

    Much of the biodiversity-related climate change impacts research has focused on the direct effects to species and ecosystems. Far less attention has been paid to the potential ecological consequences of human efforts to address the effects of climate change, which may equal or exceed the direct effects of climate change on biodiversity. One of the most significant human responses is likely to be mediated through changes in the agricultural utility of land. As farmers adapt their practices to changing climates, they may increase pressure on some areas that are important to conserve (conservation lands) whereas lessening it on others. We quantified how the agricultural utility of South African conservation lands may be altered by climate change. We assumed that the probability of an area being farmed is linked to the economic benefits of doing so, using land productivity values to represent production benefit and topographic ruggedness as a proxy for costs associated with mechanical workability. We computed current and future values of maize and wheat production in key conservation lands using the DSSAT4.5 model and 36 crop-climate response scenarios. Most conservation lands had, and were predicted to continue to have, low agricultural utility because of their location in rugged terrain. However, several areas were predicted to maintain or gain high agricultural utility and may therefore be at risk of near-term or future conversion to cropland. Conversely, some areas were predicted to decrease in agricultural utility and may therefore prove easier to protect from conversion. Our study provides an approximate but readily transferable method for incorporating potential human responses to climate change into conservation planning. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  3. Security Risks of Cloud Computing and Its Emergence as 5th Utility Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Mushtaq

    Cloud Computing is being projected by the major cloud services provider IT companies such as IBM, Google, Yahoo, Amazon and others as fifth utility where clients will have access for processing those applications and or software projects which need very high processing speed for compute intensive and huge data capacity for scientific, engineering research problems and also e- business and data content network applications. These services for different types of clients are provided under DASM-Direct Access Service Management based on virtualization of hardware, software and very high bandwidth Internet (Web 2.0) communication. The paper reviews these developments for Cloud Computing and Hardware/Software configuration of the cloud paradigm. The paper also examines the vital aspects of security risks projected by IT Industry experts, cloud clients. The paper also highlights the cloud provider's response to cloud security risks.

  4. 1991 Acceptance priority ranking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-12-01

    The Standard Contract for Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and/or High- Level Radioactive Waste (10 CFR Part 961) that the Department of Energy (DOE) has executed with the owners and generators of civilian spent nuclear fuel requires annual publication of the Acceptance Priority Ranking (APR). The 1991 APR details the order in which DOE will allocate Federal waste acceptance capacity. As required by the Standard Contract, the ranking is based on the age of permanently discharged spent nuclear fuel (SNF), with the owners of the oldest SNF, on an industry-wide basis, given the highest priority. the 1991 APR will be the basis for the annual allocation of waste acceptance capacity to the Purchasers in the 1991 Annual Capacity Report (ACR), to be issued later this year. This document is based on SNF discharges as of December 31, 1990, and reflects Purchaser comments and corrections, as appropriate, to the draft APR issued on May 15, 1991

  5. NNP-LANL Utilities - Condition Assessment and Project Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stewart, Grant Lorenz [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-11-21

    This report is a presentation on LANL Utilities & Transportation Asset Management; Utility Assets Overview; Condition Assessment; Utilities Project Nominations & Ranking; and Utilities Project Execution.

  6. Modeling strategy to identify patients with primary immunodeficiency utilizing risk management and outcome measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modell, Vicki; Quinn, Jessica; Ginsberg, Grant; Gladue, Ron; Orange, Jordan; Modell, Fred

    2017-06-01

    This study seeks to generate analytic insights into risk management and probability of an identifiable primary immunodeficiency defect. The Jeffrey Modell Centers Network database, Jeffrey Modell Foundation's 10 Warning Signs, the 4 Stages of Testing Algorithm, physician-reported clinical outcomes, programs of physician education and public awareness, the SPIRIT® Analyzer, and newborn screening, taken together, generates P values of less than 0.05%. This indicates that the data results do not occur by chance, and that there is a better than 95% probability that the data are valid. The objectives are to improve patients' quality of life, while generating significant reduction of costs. The advances of the world's experts aligned with these JMF programs can generate analytic insights as to risk management and probability of an identifiable primary immunodeficiency defect. This strategy reduces the uncertainties related to primary immunodeficiency risks, as we can screen, test, identify, and treat undiagnosed patients. We can also address regional differences and prevalence, age, gender, treatment modalities, and sites of care, as well as economic benefits. These tools support high net benefits, substantial financial savings, and significant reduction of costs. All stakeholders, including patients, clinicians, pharmaceutical companies, third party payers, and government healthcare agencies, must address the earliest possible precise diagnosis, appropriate intervention and treatment, as well as stringent control of healthcare costs through risk assessment and outcome measurement. An affected patient is entitled to nothing less, and stakeholders are responsible to utilize tools currently available. Implementation offers a significant challenge to the entire primary immunodeficiency community.

  7. On the consistency of risk acceptance criteria with normative theories for decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abrahamsen, E.B. [University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger (Norway)], E-mail: eirik.abrahamsen@uis.no; Aven, T. [University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger (Norway)

    2008-12-15

    In evaluation of safety in projects it is common to use risk acceptance criteria to support decision-making. In this paper, we discuss to what extent the risk acceptance criteria is in accordance with the normative theoretical framework of the expected utility theory and the rank-dependent utility theory. We show that the use of risk acceptance criteria may violate the independence axiom of the expected utility theory and the comonotonic independence axiom of the rank-dependent utility theory. Hence the use of risk acceptance criteria is not in general consistent with these theories. The level of inconsistency is highest for the expected utility theory.

  8. On the consistency of risk acceptance criteria with normative theories for decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abrahamsen, E.B.; Aven, T.

    2008-01-01

    In evaluation of safety in projects it is common to use risk acceptance criteria to support decision-making. In this paper, we discuss to what extent the risk acceptance criteria is in accordance with the normative theoretical framework of the expected utility theory and the rank-dependent utility theory. We show that the use of risk acceptance criteria may violate the independence axiom of the expected utility theory and the comonotonic independence axiom of the rank-dependent utility theory. Hence the use of risk acceptance criteria is not in general consistent with these theories. The level of inconsistency is highest for the expected utility theory

  9. Efficient Discovery of De-identification Policies Through a Risk-Utility Frontier.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Weiyi; Heatherly, Raymond; Ding, Xiaofeng; Li, Jiuyong; Malin, Bradley

    2013-01-01

    Modern information technologies enable organizations to capture large quantities of person-specific data while providing routine services. Many organizations hope, or are legally required, to share such data for secondary purposes (e.g., validation of research findings) in a de-identified manner. In previous work, it was shown de-identification policy alternatives could be modeled on a lattice, which could be searched for policies that met a prespecified risk threshold (e.g., likelihood of re-identification). However, the search was limited in several ways. First, its definition of utility was syntactic - based on the level of the lattice - and not semantic - based on the actual changes induced in the resulting data. Second, the threshold may not be known in advance. The goal of this work is to build the optimal set of policies that trade-off between privacy risk (R) and utility (U), which we refer to as a R-U frontier. To model this problem, we introduce a semantic definition of utility, based on information theory, that is compatible with the lattice representation of policies. To solve the problem, we initially build a set of policies that define a frontier. We then use a probability-guided heuristic to search the lattice for policies likely to update the frontier. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, we perform an empirical analysis with the Adult dataset of the UCI Machine Learning Repository. We show that our approach can construct a frontier closer to optimal than competitive approaches by searching a smaller number of policies. In addition, we show that a frequently followed de-identification policy (i.e., the Safe Harbor standard of the HIPAA Privacy Rule) is suboptimal in comparison to the frontier discovered by our approach.

  10. Utilization of prostate brachytherapy for low risk prostate cancer: Is the decline overstated?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safdieh, Joseph; Wong, Andrew; Weiner, Joseph P; Schwartz, David; Schreiber, David

    2016-08-01

    Several prior studies have suggested that brachytherapy utilization has markedly decreased, coinciding with the recent increased utilization of intensity modulated radiation therapy, as well as an increase in urologist-owned centers. We sought to investigate the brachytherapy utilization in a large, hospital-based registry. Men with prostate cancer diagnosed between 2004-2012 and treated with either external beam radiation and/or prostate brachytherapy were abstracted from the National Cancer Database. In order to be included, men had to be clinically staged as T1c-T2aNx-0Mx-0, Gleason 6, PSA ≤ 10.0 ng/ml. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze brachytherapy utilization over time and were compared via χ(2). Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess for covariables associated with increased brachytherapy usage. There were 89,413 men included in this study, of which 37,054 (41.6%) received only external beam radiation, and 52,089 (58.4%) received prostate brachytherapy. The use of brachytherapy declined over time from 62.9% in 2004 to 51.3% in 2012 (p facilities (60.8% in 2004 to 47.0% in 2012, p facilities (63.7% in 2004 to 53.0% in 2012, p facilities than those who lived further. The use of intensity modulated radiation therapy increased during this same time period from 18.4% in 2004 to 38.2% in 2012 (p usage. In this hospital-based registry, prostate brachytherapy usage has declined for low risk prostate cancer as intensity modulated radiation therapy usage has increased. However, it still remains the treatment of choice for 51.3% of patients as of 2012.

  11. Effects of Geographic Diversification on Risk Pooling to Mitigate Drought-Related Financial Losses for Water Utilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, Rachel; Characklis, Gregory W.; Serre, Marc L.

    2018-04-01

    As the costs and regulatory barriers to new water supply development continue to rise, drought management strategies have begun to rely more heavily on temporary conservation measures. While these measures are effective, they often lead to intermittent and unpredictable reductions in revenues that are financially disruptive to water utilities, raising concerns over lower credit ratings and higher rates of borrowing for this capital intensive sector. Consequently, there is growing interest in financial risk management strategies that reduce utility vulnerabilities. This research explores the development of financial index insurance designed to compensate a utility for drought-related losses. The focus is on analyzing candidate hydrologic indices that have the potential to be used by utilities across the US, increasing the potential for risk pooling, which would offer the possibility of both lower risk management costs and more widespread implementation. This work first analyzes drought-related financial risks for 315 publicly operated water utilities across the country and examines the effectiveness of financial contracts based on several indices both in terms of their correlation with utility revenues and their spatial autocorrelation across locations. Hydrologic-based index insurance contracts are then developed and tested over a 120 year period. Results indicate that risk pooling, even under conditions in which droughts are subject to some level of spatial autocorrelation, has the potential to significantly reduce the cost of managing financial risk.

  12. Ranking Baltic States Researchers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gyula Mester

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In this article, using the h-index and the total number of citations, the best 10 Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian researchers from several disciplines are ranked. The list may be formed based on the h-index and the total number of citations, given in Web of Science, Scopus, Publish or Perish Program and Google Scholar database. Data for the first 10 researchers are presented. Google Scholar is the most complete. Therefore, to define a single indicator, h-index calculated by Google Scholar may be a good and simple one. The author chooses the Google Scholar database as it is the broadest one.

  13. Fourth-rank cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marrakchi, A.E.L.; Tapia, V.

    1992-05-01

    Some cosmological implications of the recently proposed fourth-rank theory of gravitation are studied. The model exhibits the possibility of being free from the horizon and flatness problems at the price of introducing a negative pressure. The field equations we obtain are compatible with k obs =0 and Ω obs t clas approx. 10 20 t Planck approx. 10 -23 s. When interpreted at the light of General Relativity the treatment is shown to be almost equivalent to that of the standard model of cosmology combined with the inflationary scenario. Hence, an interpretation of the negative pressure hypothesis is provided. (author). 8 refs

  14. University Rankings and Social Science

    OpenAIRE

    Marginson, S.

    2014-01-01

    University rankings widely affect the behaviours of prospective students and their families, university executive leaders, academic faculty, governments and investors in higher education. Yet the social science foundations of global rankings receive little scrutiny. Rankings that simply recycle reputation without any necessary connection to real outputs are of no common value. It is necessary that rankings be soundly based in scientific terms if a virtuous relationship between performance and...

  15. an investigation into n investigation into index ranking technique

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    probability theory, namely, the Monte C. Simulation ... The study shows that the utility of the ranking technique may be limited by em. Therefore ... in decision making under fuzzy. The use of ... thereby making decision making impossible or.

  16. Proceedings of the sixteenth biennial low-rank fuels symposium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    Low-rank coals represent a major energy resource for the world. The Low-Rank Fuels Symposium, building on the traditions established by the Lignite Symposium, focuses on the key opportunities for this resource. This conference offers a forum for leaders from industry, government, and academia to gather to share current information on the opportunities represented by low-rank coals. In the United States and throughout the world, the utility industry is the primary user of low-rank coals. As such, current experiences and future opportunities for new technologies in this industry were the primary focuses of the symposium

  17. Proceedings of the sixteenth biennial low-rank fuels symposium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-01-01

    Low-rank coals represent a major energy resource for the world. The Low-Rank Fuels Symposium, building on the traditions established by the Lignite Symposium, focuses on the key opportunities for this resource. This conference offers a forum for leaders from industry, government, and academia to gather to share current information on the opportunities represented by low-rank coals. In the United States and throughout the world, the utility industry is the primary user of low-rank coals. As such, current experiences and future opportunities for new technologies in this industry were the primary focuses of the symposium.

  18. University Rankings and Social Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marginson, Simon

    2014-01-01

    University rankings widely affect the behaviours of prospective students and their families, university executive leaders, academic faculty, governments and investors in higher education. Yet the social science foundations of global rankings receive little scrutiny. Rankings that simply recycle reputation without any necessary connection to real…

  19. Assessing safety risk in electricity distribution processes using ET & BA improved technique and its ranking by VIKOR and TOPSIS models in fuzzy environment

    OpenAIRE

    S. Rahmani; M. Omidvari

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Electrical industries are among high risk industries. The present study aimed to assess safety risk in electricity distribution processes using  ET&BA technique and also to compare with both VIKOR & TOPSIS methods in fuzzy environments.   Material and Methods: The present research is a descriptive study and ET&BA worksheet is the main data collection tool. Both Fuzzy TOPSIS and Fuzzy VIKOR methods were used for the worksheet analysis.   Result: Findi...

  20. Association between prenatal care utilization and risk of preterm birth among Chinese women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bin; Yang, Rong; Liang, Sheng-Wen; Wang, Jing; Chang, Jen Jen; Hu, Ke; Dong, Guang-Hui; Hu, Rong-Hua; Flick, Louise H; Zhang, Yi-Ming; Zhang, Dan; Li, Qing-Jie; Zheng, Tong-Zhang; Xu, Shun-Qing; Yang, Shao-Ping; Qian, Zheng-Min

    2017-08-01

    It is recognized that prenatal care plays an important role in reducing adverse birth. Chinese pregnant women with medical condition were required to seek additional health care based on the recommended at least 5 times health care visits. This study was to estimate the association between prenatal care utilization (PCU) and preterm birth (PTB), and to investigate if medical conditions during pregnancy modified the association. This population-based case control study sampled women with PTB as cases; one control for each case was randomly selected from women with term births. The Electronic Perinatal Health Care Information System (EPHCIS) and a questionnaire were used for data collection. The PCU was measured by a renewed Prenatal Care Utilization (APNCU) index. Logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and the 95% confidence interval (95% CI). Totally, 2393 women with PTBs and 4263 women with term births were collected. In this study, 695 (10.5%) women experienced inadequate prenatal care, and 5131 (77.1%) received adequate plus prenatal care. Inadequate PCU was associated with PTB (adjusted OR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.32-1.84); the similar positive association was found between adequate plus PCU and PTB. Among women with medical conditions, these associations still existed; but among women without medical conditions, the association between inadequate PCU and PTB disappeared. Our data suggests that women receiving inappropriate PCU are at an increased risk of having PTB, but it does depend on whether the woman has a medical condition during pregnancy.

  1. Potential utility of MRI in the evaluation of children at risk of renal scarring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chan Yuleung; Chan Kamwing; Roebuck, D.J.; Chu, W.C.W.; Metreweli, C.; Yeung Chungkwong; Lee Kimhung

    1999-01-01

    Background. Gadolinium-enhanced MRI has recently been employed in the diagnosis of acute pyelonephritis. Its potential utility in the diagnosis of renal scars in children is unknown. Objective. To evaluate the potential utility of MRI using fat-saturated T1-weighted (T1-W) and post-gadolinium, short-tau inversion-recovery (STIR) sequences in detecting renal scarring by comparison with technetium dimercaptosuccinic acid ( 99 m Tc-DMSA) renal scintigraphy in children at risk of renal scarring. Materials and methods. A group of 24 children with spina bifida and neurogenic bladder or anorectal anomaly was studied. No patient had a history of acute pyelonephritis. Documented urinary tract infection (UTI) was present in 10 children (42 %). The remaining 14 (58 %) children had a history of asymptomatic bacteriuria. None had clinical signs or symptoms of acute UTI at the time of the study. 99 m Tc-DMSA and MRI were performed to detect renal scarring. 99 m Tc-DMSA scans were supplemented with pinhole imaging. MRI of the kidneys employed a fat-saturated T1-W sequence and a post-gadolinium STIR sequence employing a short echo time. Results. Of the kidneys studied, 33 % (n = 16) had evidence of a renal parenchymal defect suggestive of scarring on 99 m Tc-DMSA. The concordance in the detection of a scarred kidney by post-gadolinium STIR sequence and 99 m Tc-DMSA is 94 %; that by fat-saturated T1-W sequence and 99 m Tc-DMSA is 82 %; that by both sequences (positive result on either sequence) and 99 m Tc-DMSA is 100 %. Using 99 m Tc-DMSA as the gold standard, MRI had a sensitivity of 100 % and a specificity of 78 % in the diagnosis of a scarred kidney. The concordance in the detection of a scarred zone by post-gadolinium STIR sequence and 99 m Tc-DMSA is 68 %; that by fat-saturated T1-W sequence and DMSA is 44 %; that by both sequences (positive result on either sequence) and 99 m Tc-DMSA is 84 %. MRI had a sensitivity of 84 % and a specificity of 86 % in the diagnosis of a

  2. Utilization of prostate brachytherapy for low risk prostate cancer: Is the decline overstated?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Safdieh

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose : Several prior studies have suggested that brachytherapy utilization has markedly decreased, coinciding with the recent increased utilization of intensity modulated radiation therapy, as well as an increase in urologist-owned centers. We sought to investigate the brachytherapy utilization in a large, hospital-based registry. Material and methods: Men with prostate cancer diagnosed between 2004-2012 and treated with either external beam radiation and/or prostate brachytherapy were abstracted from the National Cancer Database. In order to be included, men had to be clinically staged as T1c-T2aNx-0Mx-0, Gleason 6, PSA ≤ 10.0 ng/ml. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze brachytherapy utilization over time and were compared via χ2. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess for covariables associated with increased brachytherapy usage. Results : There were 89,413 men included in this study, of which 37,054 (41.6% received only external beam radiation, and 52,089 (58.4% received prostate brachytherapy. The use of brachytherapy declined over time from 62.9% in 2004 to 51.3% in 2012 (p < 0.001. This decline was noted in both academic facilities (60.8% in 2004 to 47.0% in 2012, p < 0.001 as well as in non-academic facilities (63.7% in 2004 to 53.0% in 2012, p < 0.001. The decline was more pronounced in patients who lived closer to treatment facilities than those who lived further. The use of intensity modulated radiation therapy increased during this same time period from 18.4% in 2004 to 38.2% in 2012 (p < 0.001. On multivariate analysis, treatment at an academic center, increasing age, decreasing distance from the treatment center, and years of diagnosis from 2006-2012 were significantly associated with reduced brachytherapy usage. Conclusions : In this hospital-based registry, prostate brachytherapy usage has declined for low risk prostate cancer as intensity modulated radiation therapy usage has increased. However, it still

  3. World Health Organization Ranking of Antimicrobials According to Their Importance in Human Medicine: A Critical Step for Developing Risk Management Strategies to Control Antimicrobial Resistance From Food Animal Production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collignon, Peter C; Conly, John M; Andremont, Antoine; McEwen, Scott A; Aidara-Kane, Awa; Agerso, Yvonne; Andremont, Antoine; Collignon, Peter; Conly, John; Dang Ninh, Tran; Donado-Godoy, Pilar; Fedorka-Cray, Paula; Fernandez, Heriberto; Galas, Marcelo; Irwin, Rebecca; Karp, Beth; Matar, Gassan; McDermott, Patrick; McEwen, Scott; Mitema, Eric; Reid-Smith, Richard; Scott, H Morgan; Singh, Ruby; DeWaal, Caroline Smith; Stelling, John; Toleman, Mark; Watanabe, Haruo; Woo, Gun-Jo

    2016-10-15

    Antimicrobial use in food animals selects for antimicrobial resistance in bacteria, which can spread to people. Reducing use of antimicrobials-particularly those deemed to be critically important for human medicine-in food production animals continues to be an important step for preserving the benefits of these antimicrobials for people. The World Health Organization ranking of antimicrobials according to their relative importance in human medicine was recently updated. Antimicrobials considered the highest priority among the critically important antimicrobials were quinolones, third- and fourth-generation cephalosporins, macrolides and ketolides, and glycopeptides. The updated ranking allows stakeholders in the agriculture sector and regulatory agencies to focus risk management efforts on drugs used in food animals that are the most important to human medicine. In particular, the current large-scale use of fluoroquinolones, macrolides, and third-generation cephalosporins and any potential use of glycopeptides and carbapenems need to be addressed urgently. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Are university rankings useful to improve research? A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernon, Marlo M; Balas, E Andrew; Momani, Shaher

    2018-01-01

    Concerns about reproducibility and impact of research urge improvement initiatives. Current university ranking systems evaluate and compare universities on measures of academic and research performance. Although often useful for marketing purposes, the value of ranking systems when examining quality and outcomes is unclear. The purpose of this study was to evaluate usefulness of ranking systems and identify opportunities to support research quality and performance improvement. A systematic review of university ranking systems was conducted to investigate research performance and academic quality measures. Eligibility requirements included: inclusion of at least 100 doctoral granting institutions, be currently produced on an ongoing basis and include both global and US universities, publish rank calculation methodology in English and independently calculate ranks. Ranking systems must also include some measures of research outcomes. Indicators were abstracted and contrasted with basic quality improvement requirements. Exploration of aggregation methods, validity of research and academic quality indicators, and suitability for quality improvement within ranking systems were also conducted. A total of 24 ranking systems were identified and 13 eligible ranking systems were evaluated. Six of the 13 rankings are 100% focused on research performance. For those reporting weighting, 76% of the total ranks are attributed to research indicators, with 24% attributed to academic or teaching quality. Seven systems rely on reputation surveys and/or faculty and alumni awards. Rankings influence academic choice yet research performance measures are the most weighted indicators. There are no generally accepted academic quality indicators in ranking systems. No single ranking system provides a comprehensive evaluation of research and academic quality. Utilizing a combined approach of the Leiden, Thomson Reuters Most Innovative Universities, and the SCImago ranking systems may provide

  5. Fractional cointegration rank estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lasak, Katarzyna; Velasco, Carlos

    the parameters of the model under the null hypothesis of the cointegration rank r = 1, 2, ..., p-1. This step provides consistent estimates of the cointegration degree, the cointegration vectors, the speed of adjustment to the equilibrium parameters and the common trends. In the second step we carry out a sup......-likelihood ratio test of no-cointegration on the estimated p - r common trends that are not cointegrated under the null. The cointegration degree is re-estimated in the second step to allow for new cointegration relationships with different memory. We augment the error correction model in the second step...... to control for stochastic trend estimation effects from the first step. The critical values of the tests proposed depend only on the number of common trends under the null, p - r, and on the interval of the cointegration degrees b allowed, but not on the true cointegration degree b0. Hence, no additional...

  6. Rankings, creatividad y urbanismo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JOAQUÍN SABATÉ

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available La competencia entre ciudades constituye uno de los factores impulsores de procesos de renovación urbana y los rankings han devenido instrumentos de medida de la calidad de las ciudades. Nos detendremos en el caso de un antiguo barrio industrial hoy en vías de transformación en distrito "creativo" por medio de una intervención urbanística de gran escala. Su análisis nos descubre tres claves críticas. En primer lugar, nos obliga a plantearnos la definición de innovación urbana y cómo se integran el pasado, la identidad y la memoria en la construcción del futuro. Nos lleva a comprender que la innovación y el conocimiento no se "dan" casualmente, sino que son el fruto de una larga y compleja red en la que participan saberes, espacios, actores e instituciones diversas en naturaleza, escala y magnitud. Por último nos obliga a reflexionar sobre el valor que se le otorga a lo local en los procesos de renovación urbana.Competition among cities constitutes one ofthe main factors o furban renewal, and rankings have become instruments to indícate cities quality. Studying the transformation of an old industrial quarter into a "creative district" by the means ofa large scale urban project we highlight three main conclusions. First, itasks us to reconsider the notion ofurban innovation and hoto past, identity and memory should intégrate the future development. Second, it shows that innovation and knowledge doesn't yield per chance, but are the result ofa large and complex grid of diverse knowledges, spaces, agents and institutions. Finally itforces us to reflect about the valué attributed to the "local" in urban renewalprocesses.

  7. Ranking nodes in growing networks: When PageRank fails.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariani, Manuel Sebastian; Medo, Matúš; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

    2015-11-10

    PageRank is arguably the most popular ranking algorithm which is being applied in real systems ranging from information to biological and infrastructure networks. Despite its outstanding popularity and broad use in different areas of science, the relation between the algorithm's efficacy and properties of the network on which it acts has not yet been fully understood. We study here PageRank's performance on a network model supported by real data, and show that realistic temporal effects make PageRank fail in individuating the most valuable nodes for a broad range of model parameters. Results on real data are in qualitative agreement with our model-based findings. This failure of PageRank reveals that the static approach to information filtering is inappropriate for a broad class of growing systems, and suggest that time-dependent algorithms that are based on the temporal linking patterns of these systems are needed to better rank the nodes.

  8. Neophilia Ranking of Scientific Journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Packalen, Mikko; Bhattacharya, Jay

    2017-01-01

    The ranking of scientific journals is important because of the signal it sends to scientists about what is considered most vital for scientific progress. Existing ranking systems focus on measuring the influence of a scientific paper (citations)-these rankings do not reward journals for publishing innovative work that builds on new ideas. We propose an alternative ranking based on the proclivity of journals to publish papers that build on new ideas, and we implement this ranking via a text-based analysis of all published biomedical papers dating back to 1946. In addition, we compare our neophilia ranking to citation-based (impact factor) rankings; this comparison shows that the two ranking approaches are distinct. Prior theoretical work suggests an active role for our neophilia index in science policy. Absent an explicit incentive to pursue novel science, scientists underinvest in innovative work because of a coordination problem: for work on a new idea to flourish, many scientists must decide to adopt it in their work. Rankings that are based purely on influence thus do not provide sufficient incentives for publishing innovative work. By contrast, adoption of the neophilia index as part of journal-ranking procedures by funding agencies and university administrators would provide an explicit incentive for journals to publish innovative work and thus help solve the coordination problem by increasing scientists' incentives to pursue innovative work.

  9. An integrated multicriteria decision-making approach for evaluating nuclear fuel cycle systems for long-term sustainability on the basis of an equilibrium model: Technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution, preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation, and multiattribute utility theory combined with analytic hierarchy process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Sae Rom [Dept of Quantum Energy Chemical Engineering, Korea University of Science and Technology (KUST), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Sung Yeol [Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulju (Korea, Republic of); Ko, Wonil [Nonproliferation System Development Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-02-15

    The focus on the issues surrounding spent nuclear fuel and lifetime extension of old nuclear power plants continues to grow nowadays. A transparent decision-making process to identify the best suitable nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) is considered to be the key task in the current situation. Through this study, an attempt is made to develop an equilibrium model for the NFC to calculate the material flows based on 1 TWh of electricity production, and to perform integrated multicriteria decision-making method analyses via the analytic hierarchy process technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution, preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation, and multiattribute utility theory methods. This comparative study is aimed at screening and ranking the three selected NFC options against five aspects: sustainability, environmental friendliness, economics, proliferation resistance, and technical feasibility. The selected fuel cycle options include pressurized water reactor (PWR) once-through cycle, PWR mixed oxide cycle, or pyroprocessing sodium-cooled fast reactor cycle. A sensitivity analysis was performed to prove the robustness of the results and explore the influence of criteria on the obtained ranking. As a result of the comparative analysis, the pyroprocessing sodium-cooled fast reactor cycle is determined to be the most competitive option among the NFC scenarios.

  10. An integrated multicriteria decision-making approach for evaluating nuclear fuel cycle systems for long-term sustainability on the basis of an equilibrium model: Technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution, preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation, and multiattribute utility theory combined with analytic hierarchy process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Sae Rom; Choi, Sung Yeol; Ko, Wonil

    2017-01-01

    The focus on the issues surrounding spent nuclear fuel and lifetime extension of old nuclear power plants continues to grow nowadays. A transparent decision-making process to identify the best suitable nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) is considered to be the key task in the current situation. Through this study, an attempt is made to develop an equilibrium model for the NFC to calculate the material flows based on 1 TWh of electricity production, and to perform integrated multicriteria decision-making method analyses via the analytic hierarchy process technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution, preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation, and multiattribute utility theory methods. This comparative study is aimed at screening and ranking the three selected NFC options against five aspects: sustainability, environmental friendliness, economics, proliferation resistance, and technical feasibility. The selected fuel cycle options include pressurized water reactor (PWR) once-through cycle, PWR mixed oxide cycle, or pyroprocessing sodium-cooled fast reactor cycle. A sensitivity analysis was performed to prove the robustness of the results and explore the influence of criteria on the obtained ranking. As a result of the comparative analysis, the pyroprocessing sodium-cooled fast reactor cycle is determined to be the most competitive option among the NFC scenarios

  11. An Integrated Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach for Evaluating Nuclear Fuel Cycle Systems for Long-term Sustainability on the Basis of an Equilibrium Model: Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution, Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation, and Multiattribute Utility Theory Combined with Analytic Hierarchy Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saerom Yoon

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The focus on the issues surrounding spent nuclear fuel and lifetime extension of old nuclear power plants continues to grow nowadays. A transparent decision-making process to identify the best suitable nuclear fuel cycle (NFC is considered to be the key task in the current situation. Through this study, an attempt is made to develop an equilibrium model for the NFC to calculate the material flows based on 1 TWh of electricity production, and to perform integrated multicriteria decision-making method analyses via the analytic hierarchy process technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution, preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation, and multiattribute utility theory methods. This comparative study is aimed at screening and ranking the three selected NFC options against five aspects: sustainability, environmental friendliness, economics, proliferation resistance, and technical feasibility. The selected fuel cycle options include pressurized water reactor (PWR once-through cycle, PWR mixed oxide cycle, or pyroprocessing sodium-cooled fast reactor cycle. A sensitivity analysis was performed to prove the robustness of the results and explore the influence of criteria on the obtained ranking. As a result of the comparative analysis, the pyroprocessing sodium-cooled fast reactor cycle is determined to be the most competitive option among the NFC scenarios.

  12. Minimal support technology and in situ resource utilization for risk management of planetary spaceflight missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, K. L.; Rygalov, V. Ye.; Johnson, S. B.

    2009-04-01

    All artificial systems and components in space degrade at higher rates than on Earth, depending in part on environmental conditions, design approach, assembly technologies, and the materials used. This degradation involves not only the hardware and software systems but the humans that interact with those systems. All technological functions and systems can be expressed through functional dependence: [Function]˜[ERU]∗[RUIS]∗[ISR]/[DR];where [ERU]efficiency (rate) of environmental resource utilization[RUIS]resource utilization infrastructure[ISR]in situ resources[DR]degradation rateThe limited resources of spaceflight and open space for autonomous missions require a high reliability (maximum possible, approaching 100%) for system functioning and operation, and must minimize the rate of any system degradation. To date, only a continuous human presence with a system in the spaceflight environment can absolutely mitigate those degradations. This mitigation is based on environmental amelioration for both the technology systems, as repair of data and spare parts, and the humans, as exercise and psychological support. Such maintenance now requires huge infrastructures, including research and development complexes and management agencies, which currently cannot move beyond the Earth. When considering what is required to move manned spaceflight from near Earth stations to remote locations such as Mars, what are the minimal technologies and infrastructures necessary for autonomous restoration of a degrading system in space? In all of the known system factors of a mission to Mars that reduce the mass load, increase the reliability, and reduce the mission’s overall risk, the current common denominator is the use of undeveloped or untested technologies. None of the technologies required to significantly reduce the risk for critical systems are currently available at acceptable readiness levels. Long term interplanetary missions require that space programs produce a craft

  13. Ranking Specific Sets of Objects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maly, Jan; Woltran, Stefan

    2017-01-01

    Ranking sets of objects based on an order between the single elements has been thoroughly studied in the literature. In particular, it has been shown that it is in general impossible to find a total ranking - jointly satisfying properties as dominance and independence - on the whole power set of objects. However, in many applications certain elements from the entire power set might not be required and can be neglected in the ranking process. For instance, certain sets might be ruled out due to hard constraints or are not satisfying some background theory. In this paper, we treat the computational problem whether an order on a given subset of the power set of elements satisfying different variants of dominance and independence can be found, given a ranking on the elements. We show that this problem is tractable for partial rankings and NP-complete for total rankings.

  14. Wikipedia ranking of world universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lages, José; Patt, Antoine; Shepelyansky, Dima L.

    2016-03-01

    We use the directed networks between articles of 24 Wikipedia language editions for producing the wikipedia ranking of world Universities (WRWU) using PageRank, 2DRank and CheiRank algorithms. This approach allows to incorporate various cultural views on world universities using the mathematical statistical analysis independent of cultural preferences. The Wikipedia ranking of top 100 universities provides about 60% overlap with the Shanghai university ranking demonstrating the reliable features of this approach. At the same time WRWU incorporates all knowledge accumulated at 24 Wikipedia editions giving stronger highlights for historically important universities leading to a different estimation of efficiency of world countries in university education. The historical development of university ranking is analyzed during ten centuries of their history.

  15. Pressurization Risk Assessment of CO2 Reservoirs Utilizing Design of Experiments and Response Surface Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyant, E.; Han, W. S.; Kim, K. Y.; Park, E.; Han, K.

    2015-12-01

    Monitoring of pressure buildup can provide explicit information on reservoir integrity and is an appealing tool, however pressure variation is dependent on a variety of factors causing high uncertainty in pressure predictions. This work evaluated pressurization of a reservoir system in the presence of leakage pathways as well as exploring the effects of compartmentalization of the reservoir utilizing design of experiments (Definitive Screening, Box Behnken, Central Composite, and Latin Hypercube designs) and response surface methods. Two models were developed, 1) an idealized injection scenario in order to evaluate the performance of multiple designs, and 2) a complex injection scenario implementing the best performing design to investigate pressurization of the reservoir system. A holistic evaluation of scenario 1, determined that the Central Composite design would be used for the complex injection scenario. The complex scenario evaluated 5 risk factors: reservoir, seal, leakage pathway and fault permeabilities, and horizontal position of the pathway. A total of 60 response surface models (RSM) were developed for the complex scenario with an average R2 of 0.95 and a NRMSE of 0.067. Sensitivity to the input factors was dynamic through space and time; at the earliest time (0.05 years) the reservoir permeability was dominant, and for later times (>0.5 years) the fault permeability became dominant for all locations. The RSM's were then used to conduct a Monte Carlo Analysis to further analyze pressurization risks, identifying the P10, P50, P90 values. This identified the in zone (lower) P90 values as 2.16, 1.77, and 1.53 MPa and above zone values of 1.35, 1.23, 1.09 MPa for monitoring locations 1, 2, and 3, respectively. In summary, the design of experiments and response surface methods allowed for an efficient sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to be conducted permitting a complete evaluation of the pressurization across the entire parameter space.

  16. The Axiomatic Basis of Anticipated Utility: A Clarification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Quiggin (John); P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractQuiggin (J. Econ. Behav. Organization3 (1982), 323-345) introduced anticipated ("rank-dependent") utility theory into decision making under risk. Questions have been raised about mathematical aspects of Quiggin′s analysis. This paper settles these questions and shows that a minor

  17. Methodology for ranking restoration options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedemann Jensen, Per

    1999-04-01

    The work described in this report has been performed as a part of the RESTRAT Project FI4P-CT95-0021a (PL 950128) co-funded by the Nuclear Fission Safety Programme of the European Commission. The RESTRAT project has the overall objective of developing generic methodologies for ranking restoration techniques as a function of contamination and site characteristics. The project includes analyses of existing remediation methodologies and contaminated sites, and is structured in the following steps: characterisation of relevant contaminated sites; identification and characterisation of relevant restoration techniques; assessment of the radiological impact; development and application of a selection methodology for restoration options; formulation of generic conclusions and development of a manual. The project is intended to apply to situations in which sites with nuclear installations have been contaminated with radioactive materials as a result of the operation of these installations. The areas considered for remedial measures include contaminated land areas, rivers and sediments in rivers, lakes, and sea areas. Five contaminated European sites have been studied. Various remedial measures have been envisaged with respect to the optimisation of the protection of the populations being exposed to the radionuclides at the sites. Cost-benefit analysis and multi-attribute utility analysis have been applied for optimisation. Health, economic and social attributes have been included and weighting factors for the different attributes have been determined by the use of scaling constants. (au)

  18. Statistical methods for ranking data

    CERN Document Server

    Alvo, Mayer

    2014-01-01

    This book introduces advanced undergraduate, graduate students and practitioners to statistical methods for ranking data. An important aspect of nonparametric statistics is oriented towards the use of ranking data. Rank correlation is defined through the notion of distance functions and the notion of compatibility is introduced to deal with incomplete data. Ranking data are also modeled using a variety of modern tools such as CART, MCMC, EM algorithm and factor analysis. This book deals with statistical methods used for analyzing such data and provides a novel and unifying approach for hypotheses testing. The techniques described in the book are illustrated with examples and the statistical software is provided on the authors’ website.

  19. Potential utility of MRI in the evaluation of children at risk of renal scarring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chan Yuleung; Chan Kamwing; Roebuck, D.J.; Chu, W.C.W.; Metreweli, C. [Dept. of Diagnostic Radiology and Organ Imaging, Chinese Univ. of Hong Kong, Shatin (China); Yeung Chungkwong; Lee Kimhung [Dept. of Surgery, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Shatin, Hong Kong (China)

    1999-11-01

    Background. Gadolinium-enhanced MRI has recently been employed in the diagnosis of acute pyelonephritis. Its potential utility in the diagnosis of renal scars in children is unknown. Objective. To evaluate the potential utility of MRI using fat-saturated T1-weighted (T1-W) and post-gadolinium, short-tau inversion-recovery (STIR) sequences in detecting renal scarring by comparison with technetium dimercaptosuccinic acid ({sup 99} {sup m}Tc-DMSA) renal scintigraphy in children at risk of renal scarring. Materials and methods. A group of 24 children with spina bifida and neurogenic bladder or anorectal anomaly was studied. No patient had a history of acute pyelonephritis. Documented urinary tract infection (UTI) was present in 10 children (42 %). The remaining 14 (58 %) children had a history of asymptomatic bacteriuria. None had clinical signs or symptoms of acute UTI at the time of the study. {sup 99} {sup m}Tc-DMSA and MRI were performed to detect renal scarring. {sup 99} {sup m}Tc-DMSA scans were supplemented with pinhole imaging. MRI of the kidneys employed a fat-saturated T1-W sequence and a post-gadolinium STIR sequence employing a short echo time. Results. Of the kidneys studied, 33 % (n = 16) had evidence of a renal parenchymal defect suggestive of scarring on {sup 99} {sup m}Tc-DMSA. The concordance in the detection of a scarred kidney by post-gadolinium STIR sequence and {sup 99} {sup m}Tc-DMSA is 94 %; that by fat-saturated T1-W sequence and {sup 99} {sup m}Tc-DMSA is 82 %; that by both sequences (positive result on either sequence) and {sup 99} {sup m}Tc-DMSA is 100 %. Using {sup 99} {sup m}Tc-DMSA as the gold standard, MRI had a sensitivity of 100 % and a specificity of 78 % in the diagnosis of a scarred kidney. The concordance in the detection of a scarred zone by post-gadolinium STIR sequence and {sup 99} {sup m}Tc-DMSA is 68 %; that by fat-saturated T1-W sequence and DMSA is 44 %; that by both sequences (positive result on either sequence) and {sup 99

  20. SRS: Site ranking system for hazardous chemical and radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rechard, R.P.; Chu, M.S.Y.; Brown, S.L.

    1988-05-01

    This report describes the rationale and presents instructions for a site ranking system (SRS). SRS ranks hazardous chemical and radioactive waste sites by scoring important and readily available factors that influence risk to human health. Using SRS, sites can be ranked for purposes of detailed site investigations. SRS evaluates the relative risk as a combination of potentially exposed population, chemical toxicity, and potential exposure of release from a waste site; hence, SRS uses the same concepts found in a detailed assessment of health risk. Basing SRS on the concepts of risk assessment tends to reduce the distortion of results found in other ranking schemes. More importantly, a clear logic helps ensure the successful application of the ranking procedure and increases its versatility when modifications are necessary for unique situations. Although one can rank sites using a detailed risk assessment, it is potentially costly because of data and resources required. SRS is an efficient approach to provide an order-of-magnitude ranking, requiring only readily available data (often only descriptive) and hand calculations. Worksheets are included to make the system easier to understand and use. 88 refs., 19 figs., 58 tabs

  1. Ranking nodes in growing networks: When PageRank fails

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariani, Manuel Sebastian; Medo, Matúš; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

    2015-11-01

    PageRank is arguably the most popular ranking algorithm which is being applied in real systems ranging from information to biological and infrastructure networks. Despite its outstanding popularity and broad use in different areas of science, the relation between the algorithm’s efficacy and properties of the network on which it acts has not yet been fully understood. We study here PageRank’s performance on a network model supported by real data, and show that realistic temporal effects make PageRank fail in individuating the most valuable nodes for a broad range of model parameters. Results on real data are in qualitative agreement with our model-based findings. This failure of PageRank reveals that the static approach to information filtering is inappropriate for a broad class of growing systems, and suggest that time-dependent algorithms that are based on the temporal linking patterns of these systems are needed to better rank the nodes.

  2. Evaluating Potential Human Health Risks Associated with the Development of Utility-Scale Solar Energy Facilities on Contaminated Sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheng, J. -J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Chang, Y. -S. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Hartmann, H. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wescott, K. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Kygeris, C. [Indiana Univ. of Pennsylvania, PA (United States)

    2013-09-01

    This report presents a general methodology for obtaining preliminary estimates of the potential human health risks associated with developing a utility-scale solar energy facility on a contaminated site, based on potential exposures to contaminants in soils (including transport of those contaminants into the air).

  3. PageRank tracker: from ranking to tracking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Chen; Fu, Keren; Loza, Artur; Wu, Qiang; Liu, Jia; Yang, Jie

    2014-06-01

    Video object tracking is widely used in many real-world applications, and it has been extensively studied for over two decades. However, tracking robustness is still an issue in most existing methods, due to the difficulties with adaptation to environmental or target changes. In order to improve adaptability, this paper formulates the tracking process as a ranking problem, and the PageRank algorithm, which is a well-known webpage ranking algorithm used by Google, is applied. Labeled and unlabeled samples in tracking application are analogous to query webpages and the webpages to be ranked, respectively. Therefore, determining the target is equivalent to finding the unlabeled sample that is the most associated with existing labeled set. We modify the conventional PageRank algorithm in three aspects for tracking application, including graph construction, PageRank vector acquisition and target filtering. Our simulations with the use of various challenging public-domain video sequences reveal that the proposed PageRank tracker outperforms mean-shift tracker, co-tracker, semiboosting and beyond semiboosting trackers in terms of accuracy, robustness and stability.

  4. Risk evaluation method for faults by engineering approach. (2) Application concept of margin analysis utilizing accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamiya, Masanobu; Kanaida, Syuuji; Kamiya, Kouichi; Sato, Kunihiko; Kuroiwa, Katsuya

    2016-01-01

    The influence of the fault displacement on the facility should to be evaluated not only by the activity of the fault but also by obtaining risk information by considering scenarios including such as the frequency and the degree of the hazard, which should be an appropriate approach for nuclear safety. An applicable concept of margin analysis utilizing accident sequences for evaluating the influence of the fault displacement is proposed. By use of this analysis, we can evaluate of the safety functions and margin for core damage, verify the efficiency of equipment of portable type and make a decision to take additional measures to reduce the risk by using obtained risk information. (author)

  5. Clinical utility of early amplitude integrated EEG in monitoring term newborns at risk of neurological injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulina A. Toso

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to test the clinical utility of an early amplitude-integrated electroencephalography (aEEG to predict short-term neurological outcome in term newborns at risk of neurology injury. METHODS: this was a prospective, descriptive study. The inclusion criteria were neonatal encephalopathy, neurologic disturbances, and severe respiratory distress syndrome. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and likelihood ratio (LR were calculated. Clinical and demographic data were analyzed. Neurological outcome was defined as the sum of clinical, electroimaging, and neuroimaging findings. RESULTS: ten of the 21 monitored infants (48% presented altered short-term neurologic outcome. The aEEG had 90% sensitivity, 82% specificity, 82% positive predictive value, and 90% negative predictive value. The positive LR was 4.95, and the negative LR was 0.12. In three of 12 (25% encephalopathic infants, the aEEG allowed for a better definition of the severity of their condition. Seizures were detected in eight infants (38%, all subclinical at baseline, and none had a normal aEEG background pattern. The status of three infants (43% evolved and required two or more drugs for treatment. CONCLUSIONS: in infants with encephalopathy or other severe illness, aEEG disturbances occur frequently. aEEG provided a better classification of the severity of encephalopathy, detected early subclinical seizures, and allowed for monitoring of the response to treatment. aEEG was a useful tool at the neonatal intensive care unit for predicting poor short-term neurological outcomes for all sick newborn.

  6. Utilization of prostate brachytherapy for low risk prostate cancer: Is the decline overstated?

    OpenAIRE

    Joseph Safdieh; Andrew Wong; Joseph P. Weiner; David Schwartz; David Schreiber

    2016-01-01

    Purpose : Several prior studies have suggested that brachytherapy utilization has markedly decreased, coinciding with the recent increased utilization of intensity modulated radiation therapy, as well as an increase in urologist-owned centers. We sought to investigate the brachytherapy utilization in a large, hospital-based registry. Material and methods: Men with prostate cancer diagnosed between 2004-2012 and treated with either external beam radiation and/or prostate brachytherapy ...

  7. Validity of the AUDIT-C screen for at-risk drinking among students utilizing university primary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Clare E; Maisto, Stephen A

    2018-03-22

    Research is needed to establish the psychometric properties of brief screens in university primary care settings. This study aimed to assess the construct validity of one such screen, the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption (AUDIT-C), for detecting at-risk drinking among students who have utilized on-campus primary care. 389 students recently seen in university primary care completed a confidential online survey in December 2014. Bivariate correlations between the AUDIT-C and measures of alcohol consumption and negative drinking consequences provided concurrent evidence for construct validity. Receiver Operating Characteristic curve analyses determined optimal cut-off scores for at-risk drinking. The AUDIT-C significantly correlated with measures of alcohol consumption and negative drinking consequences (p AUDIT-C cut-off scores of 5 for females and 7 for males. The AUDIT-C is a valid screen for at-risk drinking among students who utilize university primary care.

  8. Portability, Salary and Asset Price Risk: A Continuous-Time Expected Utility Comparison of DB and DC Pension Plans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    An Chen

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares two different types of private retirement plans from the perspective of a representative beneficiary: a defined benefit (DB and a defined contribution (DC plan. While salary risk is the main common risk factor in DB and DC pension plans, one of the key differences is that DB plans carry portability risks, whereas DC plans bear asset price risk. We model these tradeoffs explicitly in this paper and compare these two plans in a utility-based framework. Our numerical analysis focuses on answering the question of when the beneficiary is indifferent between the DB and DC plan. Most of our results confirm the findings in the existing literature, among which, e.g., portability losses considerably reduce the relative attractiveness of the DB plan. However, we also find that the attractiveness of the DB plan can decrease in the level of risk aversion, which is inconsistent with the existing literature.

  9. Universal scaling in sports ranking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deng Weibing; Li Wei; Cai Xu; Bulou, Alain; Wang Qiuping A

    2012-01-01

    Ranking is a ubiquitous phenomenon in human society. On the web pages of Forbes, one may find all kinds of rankings, such as the world's most powerful people, the world's richest people, the highest-earning tennis players, and so on and so forth. Herewith, we study a specific kind—sports ranking systems in which players' scores and/or prize money are accrued based on their performances in different matches. By investigating 40 data samples which span 12 different sports, we find that the distributions of scores and/or prize money follow universal power laws, with exponents nearly identical for most sports. In order to understand the origin of this universal scaling we focus on the tennis ranking systems. By checking the data we find that, for any pair of players, the probability that the higher-ranked player tops the lower-ranked opponent is proportional to the rank difference between the pair. Such a dependence can be well fitted to a sigmoidal function. By using this feature, we propose a simple toy model which can simulate the competition of players in different matches. The simulations yield results consistent with the empirical findings. Extensive simulation studies indicate that the model is quite robust with respect to the modifications of some parameters. (paper)

  10. Risk-Sensitive Multiagent Decision-Theoretic Planning Based on MDP and One-Switch Utility Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zeng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In high stakes situations decision-makers are often risk-averse and decision-making processes often take place in group settings. This paper studies multiagent decision-theoretic planning under Markov decision processes (MDPs framework with considering the change of agent’s risk attitude as his wealth level varies. Based on one-switch utility function that describes agent’s risk attitude change with his wealth level, we give the additive and multiplicative aggregation models of group utility and adopt maximizing expected group utility as planning objective. When the wealth level approaches infinity, the characteristics of optimal policy are analyzed for the additive and multiplicative aggregation model, respectively. Then a backward-induction method is proposed to divide the wealth level interval from negative infinity to initial wealth level into subintervals and determine the optimal policy in states and subintervals. The proposed method is illustrated by numerical examples and the influences of agent’s risk aversion parameters and weights on group decision-making are also analyzed.

  11. Managing water utility financial risks through third-party index insurance contracts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeff, Harrison B.; Characklis, Gregory W.

    2013-08-01

    As developing new supply capacity has become increasingly expensive and difficult to permit (i.e., regulatory approval), utilities have become more reliant on temporary demand management programs, such as outdoor water use restrictions, for ensuring reliability during drought. However, a significant fraction of water utility income is often derived from the volumetric sale of water, and such restrictions can lead to substantial revenue losses. Given that many utilities set prices at levels commensurate with recovering costs, these revenue losses can leave them financially vulnerable to budgetary shortfalls. This work explores approaches for mitigating drought-related revenue losses through the use of third-party financial insurance contracts based on streamflow indices. Two different types of contracts are developed, and their efficacy is compared against two more traditional forms of financial hedging used by water utilities: Drought surcharges and contingency funds (i.e., self-insurance). Strategies involving each of these approaches, as well as their use in combination, are applied under conditions facing the water utility serving Durham, North Carolina. A multireservoir model provides information on the scale and timing of droughts, and the financial effects of these events are simulated using detailed data derived from utility billing records. Results suggest that third-party index insurance contracts, either independently or in combination with more traditional hedging tools, can provide an effective means of reducing a utility's financial vulnerability to drought.

  12. A prospective, longitudinal study to evaluate the clinical utility of a predictive algorithm that detects risk of opioid use disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenton, Ashley; Lee, Chee; Lewis, Katrina; Sharma, Maneesh; Kantorovich, Svetlana; Smith, Gregory A; Meshkin, Brian

    2018-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this study was to determine the clinical utility of an algorithm-based decision tool designed to assess risk associated with opioid use. Specifically, we sought to assess how physicians were using the profile in patient care and how its use affected patient outcomes. Patients and methods A prospective, longitudinal study was conducted to assess the utility of precision medicine testing in 5,397 patients across 100 clinics in the USA. Using a patent-protected, validated algorithm combining specific genetic risk factors with phenotypic traits, patients were categorized into low-, moderate-, and high-risk patients for opioid abuse. Physicians who ordered precision medicine testing were asked to complete patient evaluations and document their actions, decisions, and perceptions regarding the utility of the precision medicine tests. The patient outcomes associated with each treatment action were carefully documented. Results Physicians used the profile to guide treatment decisions for over half of the patients. Of those, guided treatment decisions for 24.5% of the patients were opioid related, including changing the opioid prescribed, starting an opioid, or titrating a patient off the opioid. Treatment guidance was strongly influenced by profile-predicted opioid use disorder (OUD) risk. Most importantly, patients whose physicians used the profile to guide opioid-related treatment decisions had improved clinical outcomes, including better pain management by medication adjustments, with an average pain decrease of 3.4 points on a scale of 1–10. Conclusion Patients whose physicians used the profile to guide opioid-related treatment decisions had improved clinical outcomes, as measured by decreased pain levels resulting from better pain management with prescribed medications. The clinical utility of the profile is twofold. It provides clinically actionable recommendations that can be used to 1) prevent OUD through limiting initial opioid

  13. A Survey Data Response to the Teaching of Utility Curves and Risk Aversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbs, Jeffrey; Sharma, Vivek

    2011-01-01

    In many finance and economics courses as well as in practice, the concept of risk aversion is reduced to the standard deviation of returns, whereby risk-averse investors prefer to minimize their portfolios' standard deviations. In reality, the concept of risk aversion is richer and more interesting than this, and can easily be conveyed through…

  14. Ranking environmental liabilities at a petroleum refinery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lupo, M.

    1995-01-01

    A new computer model is available to allow the management of a petroleum refinery to prioritize environmental action and construct a holistic approach to remediation. A large refinery may have numerous solid waste management units regulated by the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA), as well as process units that emit hazardous chemicals into the environment. These sources can impact several environmental media, potentially including the air, the soil, the groundwater, the unsaturated zone water, and surface water. The number of chemicals of concern may be large. The new model is able to rank the sources by considering the impact of each chemical in each medium from each source in terms of concentration, release rate, and a weighted index based on toxicity. In addition to environmental impact, the sources can be ranked in three other ways: (1) by cost to remediate, (2) by environmental risk reduction caused by the remediation in terms of the decreases in release rate, concentration, and weighted index, and (3) by cost-benefit, which is the environmental risk reduction for each source divided by the cost of the remedy. Ranking each unit in the refinery allows management to use its limited environmental resources in a pro-active strategic manner that produces long-term results, rather than in reactive, narrowly focused, costly, regulatory-driven campaigns that produce only short-term results

  15. Reassessing the utility of routine urine culture with urodynamics: UTI incidence and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snow-Lisy, Devon C; Halline, Christopher; Johnson, Emilie K; Diaz-Saldano, Dawn; Meyer, Theresa; Yerkes, Elizabeth B

    2017-08-01

    include the retrospective design. However, prospective data collection will now be possible by using standardized, templated UDS and post-UDS follow-up notes with extractable data elements that automatically populate a database. Post-UDS UTI is uncommon (1.4%), even in the setting of bacteriuria. This finding calls into question the utility of routine pre-UDS urine culture. Data from this study and a future prospective study will be used to refine a new working protocol, with the goal of targeting future urine cultures to a high-risk subset of patients. Copyright © 2017 Journal of Pediatric Urology Company. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. PageRank of integers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frahm, K M; Shepelyansky, D L; Chepelianskii, A D

    2012-01-01

    We up a directed network tracing links from a given integer to its divisors and analyze the properties of the Google matrix of this network. The PageRank vector of this matrix is computed numerically and it is shown that its probability is approximately inversely proportional to the PageRank index thus being similar to the Zipf law and the dependence established for the World Wide Web. The spectrum of the Google matrix of integers is characterized by a large gap and a relatively small number of nonzero eigenvalues. A simple semi-analytical expression for the PageRank of integers is derived that allows us to find this vector for matrices of billion size. This network provides a new PageRank order of integers. (paper)

  17. Freudenthal ranks: GHZ versus W

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borsten, L

    2013-01-01

    The Hilbert space of three-qubit pure states may be identified with a Freudenthal triple system. Every state has an unique Freudenthal rank ranging from 1 to 4, which is determined by a set of automorphism group covariants. It is shown here that the optimal success rates for winning a three-player non-local game, varying over all local strategies, are strictly ordered by the Freudenthal rank of the shared three-qubit resource. (paper)

  18. Ranking Queries on Uncertain Data

    CERN Document Server

    Hua, Ming

    2011-01-01

    Uncertain data is inherent in many important applications, such as environmental surveillance, market analysis, and quantitative economics research. Due to the importance of those applications and rapidly increasing amounts of uncertain data collected and accumulated, analyzing large collections of uncertain data has become an important task. Ranking queries (also known as top-k queries) are often natural and useful in analyzing uncertain data. Ranking Queries on Uncertain Data discusses the motivations/applications, challenging problems, the fundamental principles, and the evaluation algorith

  19. Neurobiological studies of risk assessment: A comparison of expected utility and mean-variance approaches

    OpenAIRE

    d'Acremont, M.; Bossaerts, Peter

    2008-01-01

    When modeling valuation under uncertainty, economists generally prefer expected utility because it has an axiomatic foundation, meaning that the resulting choices will satisfy a number of rationality requirements. In expected utility theory, values are computed by multiplying probabilities of each possible state of nature by the payoff in that state and summing the results. The drawback of this approach is that all state probabilities need to be dealt with separately, which becomes extremely ...

  20. Ranking in evolving complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Hao; Mariani, Manuel Sebastian; Medo, Matúš; Zhang, Yi-Cheng; Zhou, Ming-Yang

    2017-05-01

    Complex networks have emerged as a simple yet powerful framework to represent and analyze a wide range of complex systems. The problem of ranking the nodes and the edges in complex networks is critical for a broad range of real-world problems because it affects how we access online information and products, how success and talent are evaluated in human activities, and how scarce resources are allocated by companies and policymakers, among others. This calls for a deep understanding of how existing ranking algorithms perform, and which are their possible biases that may impair their effectiveness. Many popular ranking algorithms (such as Google's PageRank) are static in nature and, as a consequence, they exhibit important shortcomings when applied to real networks that rapidly evolve in time. At the same time, recent advances in the understanding and modeling of evolving networks have enabled the development of a wide and diverse range of ranking algorithms that take the temporal dimension into account. The aim of this review is to survey the existing ranking algorithms, both static and time-aware, and their applications to evolving networks. We emphasize both the impact of network evolution on well-established static algorithms and the benefits from including the temporal dimension for tasks such as prediction of network traffic, prediction of future links, and identification of significant nodes.

  1. Cost-utility of medication withdrawal in older fallers: results from the improving medication prescribing to reduce risk of FALLs (IMPROveFALL trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzanne Polinder

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The use of Fall-Risk-Increasing-Drugs (FRIDs has been associated with increased risk of falls and associated injuries. This study investigates the effect of withdrawal of FRIDs versus ‘care as usual’ on health-related quality of life (HRQoL, costs, and cost-utility in community-dwelling older fallers. Methods In a prospective multicenter randomized controlled trial FRIDs assessment combined with FRIDs-withdrawal or modification was compared with ‘care as usual’ in older persons, who visited the emergency department after experiencing a fall. For the calculation of costs the direct medical costs (intramural and extramural and indirect costs (travel costs were collected for a 12 month period. HRQoL was measured at baseline and at 12 months follow-up using the EuroQol-5D and Short Form-12 version 2. The change in EuroQol-5D and Short Form-12 scores over 12 months follow-up within the control and intervention groups was compared using the Wilcoxon Signed Rank test for continuous variables and the McNemar test for dichotomous variables. The change in scores between the control and intervention groups were compared using a two-way analysis of variance. Results We included 612 older persons who visited an emergency department because of a fall. The mean cost of the FRIDs intervention was €120 per patient. The total fall-related healthcare costs (without the intervention costs did not differ significantly between the intervention group and the control group (€2204 versus €2285. However, the withdrawal of FRIDs reduced medication costs with a mean of €38 per participant. Furthermore, the control group had a greater decline in EuroQol-5D utility score during the 12-months follow-up than the intervention group (p = 0.02. The change in the Short Form-12 Physical Component Summary and Mental Component Summary scores did not differ significantly between the two groups. Conclusions Withdrawal of FRID’s in older

  2. Cost-utility of medication withdrawal in older fallers: results from the improving medication prescribing to reduce risk of FALLs (IMPROveFALL) trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polinder, Suzanne; Boyé, Nicole D A; Mattace-Raso, Francesco U S; Van der Velde, Nathalie; Hartholt, Klaas A; De Vries, Oscar J; Lips, Paul; Van der Cammen, Tischa J M; Patka, Peter; Van Beeck, Ed F; Van Lieshout, Esther M M

    2016-11-04

    The use of Fall-Risk-Increasing-Drugs (FRIDs) has been associated with increased risk of falls and associated injuries. This study investigates the effect of withdrawal of FRIDs versus 'care as usual' on health-related quality of life (HRQoL), costs, and cost-utility in community-dwelling older fallers. In a prospective multicenter randomized controlled trial FRIDs assessment combined with FRIDs-withdrawal or modification was compared with 'care as usual' in older persons, who visited the emergency department after experiencing a fall. For the calculation of costs the direct medical costs (intramural and extramural) and indirect costs (travel costs) were collected for a 12 month period. HRQoL was measured at baseline and at 12 months follow-up using the EuroQol-5D and Short Form-12 version 2. The change in EuroQol-5D and Short Form-12 scores over 12 months follow-up within the control and intervention groups was compared using the Wilcoxon Signed Rank test for continuous variables and the McNemar test for dichotomous variables. The change in scores between the control and intervention groups were compared using a two-way analysis of variance. We included 612 older persons who visited an emergency department because of a fall. The mean cost of the FRIDs intervention was €120 per patient. The total fall-related healthcare costs (without the intervention costs) did not differ significantly between the intervention group and the control group (€2204 versus €2285). However, the withdrawal of FRIDs reduced medication costs with a mean of €38 per participant. Furthermore, the control group had a greater decline in EuroQol-5D utility score during the 12-months follow-up than the intervention group (p = 0.02). The change in the Short Form-12 Physical Component Summary and Mental Component Summary scores did not differ significantly between the two groups. Withdrawal of FRID's in older persons who visited an emergency department due to a fall, did not lead to

  3. Pediatric Predispositional Genetic Risk Communication: Potential Utility for Prevention and Control of Melanoma Risk as an Exemplar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yelena P; Mays, Darren; Kohlmann, Wendy; Tercyak, Kenneth P

    2017-10-01

    Predispositional genetic testing among minor children is intensely debated due to the potential benefits and harms of providing this type of genetic information to children and their families. Existing guidelines on pediatric genetic testing state that predispositional testing could be appropriate for minors if preventive services exist that mitigate children's risk for or severity of the health condition in question. We use the example of hereditary melanoma to illustrate the rationale for and potential application of genetic risk communication for an adult-onset cancer to a pediatric population where childhood behaviors may reduce risk of disease later in life. We draw from the adult melanoma genetic risk communication and pediatric health behavior change literatures to suggest ways in which genetic test reporting and complementary education could be delivered to children who carry a hereditary risk for melanoma and their families in order to foster children's engagement in melanoma preventive behaviors. Genetic discoveries will continue to yield new opportunities to provide predispositional genetic risk information to unaffected individuals, including children, and could be delivered within programs that provide personalized and translational approaches to cancer prevention.

  4. RANK and RANK ligand expression in primary human osteosarcoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Branstetter

    2015-09-01

    Our results demonstrate RANKL expression was observed in the tumor element in 68% of human OS using IHC. However, the staining intensity was relatively low and only 37% (29/79 of samples exhibited≥10% RANKL positive tumor cells. RANK expression was not observed in OS tumor cells. In contrast, RANK expression was clearly observed in other cells within OS samples, including the myeloid osteoclast precursor compartment, osteoclasts and in giant osteoclast cells. The intensity and frequency of RANKL and RANK staining in OS samples were substantially less than that observed in GCTB samples. The observation that RANKL is expressed in OS cells themselves suggests that these tumors may mediate an osteoclastic response, and anti-RANKL therapy may potentially be protective against bone pathologies in OS. However, the absence of RANK expression in primary human OS cells suggests that any autocrine RANKL/RANK signaling in human OS tumor cells is not operative, and anti-RANKL therapy would not directly affect the tumor.

  5. Ranking structures and rank-rank correlations of countries: The FIFA and UEFA cases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ausloos, Marcel; Cloots, Rudi; Gadomski, Adam; Vitanov, Nikolay K.

    2014-04-01

    Ranking of agents competing with each other in complex systems may lead to paradoxes according to the pre-chosen different measures. A discussion is presented on such rank-rank, similar or not, correlations based on the case of European countries ranked by UEFA and FIFA from different soccer competitions. The first question to be answered is whether an empirical and simple law is obtained for such (self-) organizations of complex sociological systems with such different measuring schemes. It is found that the power law form is not the best description contrary to many modern expectations. The stretched exponential is much more adequate. Moreover, it is found that the measuring rules lead to some inner structures in both cases.

  6. Utility of sentinel node biopsy in patients with high-risk cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Allen, J E; Stolle, L B

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Currently there is no consensual agreement on the standard use of Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy (SLNB) in staging of high-risk patients. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to define the predictive value and role of SLNB combined with the different high-risk factors to determine which patients...... cm. Sensitivity, specificity and NPV for a tumor localized at a high-risk area were 72.63%, 100% and 96.74%, respectively. Specificity was 100% as was NPV for immunosuppression. CONCLUSION: SLNB has a high NPV and low false negative rate and carries a low risk of complications. SLNB may prove...

  7. Complete hazard ranking to analyze right-censored data: An ALS survival study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengnan Huang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Survival analysis represents an important outcome measure in clinical research and clinical trials; further, survival ranking may offer additional advantages in clinical trials. In this study, we developed GuanRank, a non-parametric ranking-based technique to transform patients' survival data into a linear space of hazard ranks. The transformation enables the utilization of machine learning base-learners including Gaussian process regression, Lasso, and random forest on survival data. The method was submitted to the DREAM Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS Stratification Challenge. Ranked first place, the model gave more accurate ranking predictions on the PRO-ACT ALS dataset in comparison to Cox proportional hazard model. By utilizing right-censored data in its training process, the method demonstrated its state-of-the-art predictive power in ALS survival ranking. Its feature selection identified multiple important factors, some of which conflicts with previous studies.

  8. Complete hazard ranking to analyze right-censored data: An ALS survival study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Zhengnan; Zhang, Hongjiu; Boss, Jonathan; Goutman, Stephen A; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Dinov, Ivo D; Guan, Yuanfang

    2017-12-01

    Survival analysis represents an important outcome measure in clinical research and clinical trials; further, survival ranking may offer additional advantages in clinical trials. In this study, we developed GuanRank, a non-parametric ranking-based technique to transform patients' survival data into a linear space of hazard ranks. The transformation enables the utilization of machine learning base-learners including Gaussian process regression, Lasso, and random forest on survival data. The method was submitted to the DREAM Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) Stratification Challenge. Ranked first place, the model gave more accurate ranking predictions on the PRO-ACT ALS dataset in comparison to Cox proportional hazard model. By utilizing right-censored data in its training process, the method demonstrated its state-of-the-art predictive power in ALS survival ranking. Its feature selection identified multiple important factors, some of which conflicts with previous studies.

  9. Risks in production and utilisation of labelled compounds for nuclear medicine. 2. Benefits and risks of utilization of 99mTc generator in nuclear medicine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olteanu-Chiper, D.; Barna, C.; Gard, E.; Negoita, N.

    1999-01-01

    The growth of radioisotope applications in nuclear medicine, imposed the reduction of the radiation effects and so, the reduction of associated risk of these applications. The utilization of radioactive isotopes for investigations in nuclear medicine is conditioned by the chemical behaviour and the means of detection of the emitted radiation on one hand, and by the radiation doses received by the patient, on the other hand. In these conditions, the nuclear medicine uses only the radioisotopes which are short half-time and low radiation energy, but high enough to be detected from the exterior of human body, 99m Tc being the most favourable for utilization in diagnostic purpose. This advantage is increased by the multiple possibilities to obtain different chemical forms with 99m Tc included, which permit the production of a large variety of radiopharmaceutical products, having a specific localization in the human body (organ-targets), thus allowing the diagnosis of numerous diseases. In the work the benefits and risks of the 99m Tc-Generator utilization in the nuclear medicine are shown and the utilization technique in these applications is presented . The 99m Tc-Generator is a compact chromatographic system, with lead shielding, which permits the elution of a sterile, pyrogen-free, injectable sodium pertechnetate solution, from an aluminium chromatographic column which keeps the 99 Mo. The 99m Tc-Generator system ensures the operator protection. The radioactive solution with 99m Tc is obtained in a closed vial, within lead shielding, the irradiation or contamination risks being mostly reduced. The utilization of 99m Tc in scintigraphic exam for diagnostic medicine implies a labelling operation with 99m Tc chemically bounded in forms appropriate to the target-organ and than the intravenously injection in doses dependent on the specific scintigraphic investigation or examination. (authors)

  10. Health care utilization in a sample of Canadian lesbian women: predictors of risk and resilience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergeron, Sherry; Senn, Charlene Y

    2003-01-01

    This study was designed to test an exploratory path model predicting health care utilization by lesbian women. Using structural equation modeling we examined the joint influence of internalized homophobia, feminism, comfort with health care providers (HCPs), education, and disclosure of sexual identity both in one's life and to one's HCP on health care utilization. Surveys were completed by 254 Canadian lesbian women (54% participation rate) recruited through snowball sampling and specialized media. The majority (95%) of women were White, 3% (n = 7) were women of colour, and the remaining six women did not indicate ethnicity. Participants ranged in age from 18 to 67 with a mean age of 38.85 years (SD = 9.12). In the final path model, higher education predicted greater feminism, more disclosure to HCPs, and better utilization of health services. Feminism predicted both decreased levels of internalized homophobia and increased disclosure across relationships. Being more open about one's sexual identity was related to increased disclosure to HCPs, which in turn, led to better health care utilization. Finally, the more comfortable women were with their HCP the more likely they were to seek preventive care. All paths were significant at p < .01. The path model offers insight into potential target areas for intervention with the goal of improving health care utilization in lesbian women.

  11. Fentanyl Utility Function: A Risk-Benefit Composite of Pain Relief and Breathing Responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Boom, M.; Olofsen, E.; Neukirchen, M.; Fussen, R.; Hay, J.; Groeneveld, G.J.; Aarts, L.; Sarton, E.; Dahan, A.

    2013-01-01

    INTRODUCTION:: Integrating opioid risk and benefit into a single function may give a useful single measure of the opioid's positive and negative effects. An explorative study on the effects of fentanyl on antinociception and respiratory depression was performed to construct fentanyl risk-benefit

  12. AptRank: an adaptive PageRank model for protein function prediction on   bi-relational graphs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Biaobin; Kloster, Kyle; Gleich, David F; Gribskov, Michael

    2017-06-15

    Diffusion-based network models are widely used for protein function prediction using protein network data and have been shown to outperform neighborhood-based and module-based methods. Recent studies have shown that integrating the hierarchical structure of the Gene Ontology (GO) data dramatically improves prediction accuracy. However, previous methods usually either used the GO hierarchy to refine the prediction results of multiple classifiers, or flattened the hierarchy into a function-function similarity kernel. No study has taken the GO hierarchy into account together with the protein network as a two-layer network model. We first construct a Bi-relational graph (Birg) model comprised of both protein-protein association and function-function hierarchical networks. We then propose two diffusion-based methods, BirgRank and AptRank, both of which use PageRank to diffuse information on this two-layer graph model. BirgRank is a direct application of traditional PageRank with fixed decay parameters. In contrast, AptRank utilizes an adaptive diffusion mechanism to improve the performance of BirgRank. We evaluate the ability of both methods to predict protein function on yeast, fly and human protein datasets, and compare with four previous methods: GeneMANIA, TMC, ProteinRank and clusDCA. We design four different validation strategies: missing function prediction, de novo function prediction, guided function prediction and newly discovered function prediction to comprehensively evaluate predictability of all six methods. We find that both BirgRank and AptRank outperform the previous methods, especially in missing function prediction when using only 10% of the data for training. The MATLAB code is available at https://github.rcac.purdue.edu/mgribsko/aptrank . gribskov@purdue.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  13. Utilizing Dental Electronic Health Records Data to Predict Risk for Periodontal Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thyvalikakath, Thankam P; Padman, Rema; Vyawahare, Karnali; Darade, Pratiksha; Paranjape, Rhucha

    2015-01-01

    Periodontal disease is a major cause for tooth loss and adversely affects individuals' oral health and quality of life. Research shows its potential association with systemic diseases like diabetes and cardiovascular disease, and social habits such as smoking. This study explores mining potential risk factors from dental electronic health records to predict and display patients' contextualized risk for periodontal disease. We retrieved relevant risk factors from structured and unstructured data on 2,370 patients who underwent comprehensive oral examinations at the Indiana University School of Dentistry, Indianapolis, IN, USA. Predicting overall risk and displaying relationships between risk factors and their influence on the patient's oral and general health can be a powerful educational and disease management tool for patients and clinicians at the point of care.

  14. Suicide Attempt Risk in Youths: Utility of the Harkavy-Asnis Suicide Scale for Monitoring Risk Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asarnow, Joan; McArthur, David; Hughes, Jennifer; Barbery, Veronica; Berk, Michele

    2012-01-01

    The Harkavy-Asnis Suicide Scale (HASS), one of the few self-report scales assessing suicidal behavior was evaluated and ideation, was evaluated and predictors of suicide attempts (SAs) were identified with the goal of developing a model that clinicians can use for monitoring SA risk. Participants were 131 pediatric emergency department (ED)…

  15. Dynamic building risk assessment theoretic model for rainstorm-flood utilization ABM and ABS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Wenze; Li, Wenbo; Wang, Hailei; Huang, Yingliang; Wu, Xuelian; Sun, Bingyun

    2015-12-01

    Flood is one of natural disasters with the worst loss in the world. It needs to assess flood disaster risk so that we can reduce the loss of flood disaster. Disaster management practical work needs the dynamic risk results of building. Rainstorm flood disaster system is a typical complex system. From the view of complex system theory, flood disaster risk is the interaction result of hazard effect objects, rainstorm flood hazard factors, and hazard environments. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is an important tool for complex system modeling. Rainstorm-flood building risk dynamic assessment method (RFBRDAM) was proposed using ABM in this paper. The interior structures and procedures of different agents in proposed meth had been designed. On the Netlogo platform, the proposed method was implemented to assess the building risk changes of the rainstorm flood disaster in the Huaihe River Basin using Agent-based simulation (ABS). The results indicated that the proposed method can dynamically assess building risk of the whole process for the rainstorm flood disaster. The results of this paper can provide one new approach for flood disaster building risk dynamic assessment and flood disaster management.

  16. A utility/cost analysis of breast cancer risk prediction algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbey, Craig K.; Wu, Yirong; Burnside, Elizabeth S.; Wunderlich, Adam; Samuelson, Frank W.; Boone, John M.

    2016-03-01

    Breast cancer risk prediction algorithms are used to identify subpopulations that are at increased risk for developing breast cancer. They can be based on many different sources of data such as demographics, relatives with cancer, gene expression, and various phenotypic features such as breast density. Women who are identified as high risk may undergo a more extensive (and expensive) screening process that includes MRI or ultrasound imaging in addition to the standard full-field digital mammography (FFDM) exam. Given that there are many ways that risk prediction may be accomplished, it is of interest to evaluate them in terms of expected cost, which includes the costs of diagnostic outcomes. In this work we perform an expected-cost analysis of risk prediction algorithms that is based on a published model that includes the costs associated with diagnostic outcomes (true-positive, false-positive, etc.). We assume the existence of a standard screening method and an enhanced screening method with higher scan cost, higher sensitivity, and lower specificity. We then assess expected cost of using a risk prediction algorithm to determine who gets the enhanced screening method under the strong assumption that risk and diagnostic performance are independent. We find that if risk prediction leads to a high enough positive predictive value, it will be cost-effective regardless of the size of the subpopulation. Furthermore, in terms of the hit-rate and false-alarm rate of the of the risk prediction algorithm, iso-cost contours are lines with slope determined by properties of the available diagnostic systems for screening.

  17. Impact of Publicly Financed Health Insurance Schemes on Healthcare Utilization and Financial Risk Protection in India: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinja, Shankar; Chauhan, Akashdeep Singh; Karan, Anup; Kaur, Gunjeet; Kumar, Rajesh

    2017-01-01

    Several publicly financed health insurance schemes have been launched in India with the aim of providing universalizing health coverage (UHC). In this paper, we report the impact of publicly financed health insurance schemes on health service utilization, out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditure, financial risk protection and health status. Empirical research studies focussing on the impact or evaluation of publicly financed health insurance schemes in India were searched on PubMed, Google scholar, Ovid, Scopus, Embase and relevant websites. The studies were selected based on two stage screening PRISMA guidelines in which two researchers independently assessed the suitability and quality of the studies. The studies included in the review were divided into two groups i.e., with and without a comparison group. To assess the impact on utilization, OOP expenditure and health indicators, only the studies with a comparison group were reviewed. Out of 1265 articles screened after initial search, 43 studies were found eligible and reviewed in full text, finally yielding 14 studies which had a comparator group in their evaluation design. All the studies (n-7) focussing on utilization showed a positive effect in terms of increase in the consumption of health services with introduction of health insurance. About 70% studies (n-5) studies with a strong design and assessing financial risk protection showed no impact in reduction of OOP expenditures, while remaining 30% of evaluations (n-2), which particularly evaluated state sponsored health insurance schemes, reported a decline in OOP expenditure among the enrolled households. One study which evaluated impact on health outcome showed reduction in mortality among enrolled as compared to non-enrolled households, from conditions covered by the insurance scheme. While utilization of healthcare did improve among those enrolled in the scheme, there is no clear evidence yet to suggest that these have resulted in reduced OOP expenditures or

  18. Ranking Theory and Conditional Reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skovgaard-Olsen, Niels

    2016-05-01

    Ranking theory is a formal epistemology that has been developed in over 600 pages in Spohn's recent book The Laws of Belief, which aims to provide a normative account of the dynamics of beliefs that presents an alternative to current probabilistic approaches. It has long been received in the AI community, but it has not yet found application in experimental psychology. The purpose of this paper is to derive clear, quantitative predictions by exploiting a parallel between ranking theory and a statistical model called logistic regression. This approach is illustrated by the development of a model for the conditional inference task using Spohn's (2013) ranking theoretic approach to conditionals. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  19. University rankings in computer science

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ehret, Philip; Zuccala, Alesia Ann; Gipp, Bela

    2017-01-01

    This is a research-in-progress paper concerning two types of institutional rankings, the Leiden and QS World ranking, and their relationship to a list of universities’ ‘geo-based’ impact scores, and Computing Research and Education Conference (CORE) participation scores in the field of computer...... science. A ‘geo-based’ impact measure examines the geographical distribution of incoming citations to a particular university’s journal articles for a specific period of time. It takes into account both the number of citations and the geographical variability in these citations. The CORE participation...... score is calculated on the basis of the number of weighted proceedings papers that a university has contributed to either an A*, A, B, or C conference as ranked by the Computing Research and Education Association of Australasia. In addition to calculating the correlations between the distinct university...

  20. Clinical utility of rosuvastatin and other statins for cardiovascular risk reduction among the elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sydney B Long

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Sydney B Long, Michael J Blaha, Roger S Blumenthal, Erin D MichosJohns Hopkins Ciccarone Center for the Prevention of Heart Disease, Baltimore, MD, USAAbstract: Age is one of the strongest predictors of cardiovascular disease (CVD risk. Treatment with statins can significantly reduce CVD events and mortality in both primary and secondary prevention. Yet despite the high CVD risk among the elderly, there is underutilization of statins in this population (ie, the treatment-risk paradox. Few studies have investigated the use of statins in the elderly, particularly for primary prevention and, as a result, guidelines for treating the elderly are limited. This is likely due to: uncertainties of risk assessment in older individuals where the predictive value of individual risk factors is decreased; the need to balance the benefits of primary prevention with the risks of polypharmacy, health care costs, and adverse medication effects in a population with decreased life expectancy; the complexity of treating patients with many other comorbidities; and increasingly difficult social and economic concerns. As life expectancy increases and the total elderly population grows, these issues become increasingly important. JUPITER (Justification for the Use of statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin is the largest primary prevention statin trial to date and enrolled a substantial number of elderly adults. Among the 5695 JUPITER participants ≥70 years of age, the absolute CVD risk reduction associated with rosuvastatin was actually greater than for younger participants. The implications of this JUPITER subanalysis and the broader role of statins among older adults is the subject of this review.Keywords: JUPITER, rosuvastatin, elderly, risk

  1. Subtracting a best rank-1 approximation may increase tensor rank

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stegeman, Alwin; Comon, Pierre

    2010-01-01

    It has been shown that a best rank-R approximation of an order-k tensor may not exist when R >= 2 and k >= 3. This poses a serious problem to data analysts using tensor decompositions it has been observed numerically that, generally, this issue cannot be solved by consecutively computing and

  2. Consistent ranking of volatility models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger

    2006-01-01

    We show that the empirical ranking of volatility models can be inconsistent for the true ranking if the evaluation is based on a proxy for the population measure of volatility. For example, the substitution of a squared return for the conditional variance in the evaluation of ARCH-type models can...... variance in out-of-sample evaluations rather than the squared return. We derive the theoretical results in a general framework that is not specific to the comparison of volatility models. Similar problems can arise in comparisons of forecasting models whenever the predicted variable is a latent variable....

  3. Clinical utility of early amplitude integrated EEG in monitoring term newborns at risk of neurological injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulina A. Toso

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to test the clinical utility of an early amplitude-integrated electroencephalography (aEEG to predict short-term neurological outcome in term newborns at risk of neurology injury. Methods: this was a prospective, descriptive study. The inclusion criteria were neonatal encephalopathy, neurologic disturbances, and severe respiratory distress syndrome. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and likelihood ratio (LR were calculated. Clinical and demographic data were analyzed. Neurological outcome was defined as the sum of clinical, electroimaging, and neuroimaging findings. Results: ten of the 21 monitored infants (48% presented altered short-term neurologic outcome. The aEEG had 90% sensitivity, 82% specificity, 82% positive predictive value, and 90% negative predictive value. The positive LR was 4.95, and the negative LR was 0.12. In three of 12 (25% encephalopathic infants, the aEEG allowed for a better definition of the severity of their condition. Seizures were detected in eight infants (38%, all subclinical at baseline, and none had a normal aEEG background pattern. The status of three infants (43% evolved and required two or more drugs for treatment. Conclusions: in infants with encephalopathy or other severe illness, aEEG disturbances occur frequently. aEEG provided a better classification of the severity of encephalopathy, detected early subclinical seizures, and allowed for monitoring of the response to treatment. aEEG was a useful tool at the neonatal intensive care unit for predicting poor short-term neurological outcomes for all sick newborn. Resumo: Objetivo: testar a utilidade clínica do aEEG precoce em recém-nascidos a termo com risco de lesão neurológica, para prever resultados neurológicos de curto prazo. Métodos: estudo prospectivo e descritivo. Os critérios de inclusão foram encefalopatia neonatal, distúrbios neurológicos e bebês com SARA grave. Sensibilidade, especificidade

  4. Utility of three anthropometric indices in assessing the cardiometabolic risk profile in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchan, Duncan S; Boddy, Lynne M; Grace, Fergal M; Brown, Elise; Sculthorpe, Nicholas; Cunningham, Conor; Murphy, Marie H; Dagger, Rebecca; Foweather, Lawrence; Graves, Lee E F; Hopkins, Nicola D; Stratton, Gareth; Baker, Julien S

    2017-05-06

    To evaluate the ability of BMI, WC, and WHtR to identify increased cardiometabolic risk in pre-adolescents. This is a cross-sectional study involving 192 children (10.92 ± 0.58 years, 56% female) from the United Kingdom between 2010 and 2013. Receiver operating characteristic curves determined the discriminatory ability of BMI, WC and WHtR to identify individuals with increased cardiometabolic risk (increased clustered triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, cardiorespiratory fitness, and glucose). A WHtR ≥ 0.5 increased the odds by 5.2 (95% confidence interval 2.6 - 10.3) of having increased cardiometabolic risk. Similar associations were observed for BMI and WC. Both BMI-z and WHtR were fair predictors of increased cardiometabolic risk, although BMI-z demonstrated the best trade-off between sensitivity and specificity, 76.1% and 63.6%, compared with 68.1% and 65.5% for WHtR. Cross-validation analysis revealed that BMI-z and WHtR correctly classified 84% of individuals (kappa score = 0.671, 95% CI 0.55, 0.79). The sensitivity of the cut-points suggests that 89.3% of individuals were correctly classified as being at risk with only 10.7% misdiagnosed whereas the specificity of the cut-points indicated that 77.8% of individuals were correctly identified as being healthy with 22.2% of individuals incorrectly diagnosed as being at risk. Findings suggest that WHtR provides similar cardiometabolic risk estimates to age and sex adjusted BMI. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Clinical utility of polymorphisms in one-carbon metabolism for breast cancer risk prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaik Mohammad Naushad

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study addresses the issues in translating the laboratory derived data obtained during discovery phase of research to a clinical setting using a breast cancer model. Laboratory-based risk assessment indi-cated that a family history of breast cancer, reduced folate carrier 1 (RFC1 G80A, thymidylate synthase (TYMS 5’-UTR 28bp tandem repeat, methylene tetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR C677T and catecholamine-O-methyl transferase (COMT genetic polymorphisms in one-carbon metabolic pathway increase the risk for breast cancer. Glutamate carboxypeptidase II (GCPII C1561T and cytosolic serine hydroxymethyl transferase (cSHMT C1420T polymorphisms were found to decrease breast cancer risk. In order to test the clinical validity of this information in the risk prediction of breast cancer, data was stratified based on number of protective alleles into four categories and in each category sensitivity and 1-specificity values were obtained based on the distribution of number of risk alleles in cases and controls. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves were plotted and the area under ROC curve (C was used as a measure of discriminatory ability between cases and controls. In subjects without any protective allele, aberrations in one-carbon metabolism showed perfect prediction (C=0.93 while the predictability was lost in subjects with one protective allele (C=0.60. However, predictability increased steadily with increasing number of protective alleles (C=0.63 for 2 protective alleles and C=0.71 for 3 protective alleles. The cut-off point for discrimination was >4 alleles in all predictable combinations. Models of this kind can serve as valuable tools in translational re-search, especially in identifying high-risk individuals and reducing the disease risk either by life style modification or by medical intervention.

  6. How to Identify High-Risk APS Patients: Clinical Utility and Predictive Values of Validated Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oku, Kenji; Amengual, Olga; Yasuda, Shinsuke; Atsumi, Tatsuya

    2017-08-01

    Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is a clinical disorder characterised by thrombosis and/or pregnancy morbidity in the persistence of antiphospholipid (aPL) antibodies that are pathogenic and have pro-coagulant activities. Thrombosis in APS tends to recur and require prophylaxis; however, the stereotypical treatment for APS patients is inadequate and stratification of the thrombotic risks is important as aPL are prevalently observed in various diseases or elderly population. It is previously known that the multiple positive aPL or high titre aPL correlate to thrombotic events. To progress the stratification of thrombotic risks in APS patients and to quantitatively analyse those risks, antiphospholipid score (aPL-S) and the Global Anti-phospholipid Syndrome Score (GAPSS) were defined. These scores were raised from the large patient cohort data and either aPL profile classified in detail (aPL-S) or simplified aPL profile with classical thrombotic risk factors (GAPSS) was put into a scoring system. Both the aPL-S and GAPSS have shown a degree of accuracy in identifying high-risk APS patients, especially those at a high risk of thrombosis. However, there are several areas requiring improvement, or at least that clinicians should be aware of, before these instruments are applied in clinical practice. One such issue is standardisation of the aPL tests, including general testing of phosphatidylserine-dependent antiprothrombin antibodies (aPS/PT). Additionally, clinicians may need to be aware of the patient's medical history, particularly with respect to the incidence of SLE, which influences the cutoff value for identifying high-risk patients.

  7. The 12-lead electrocardiogram and risk of sudden death: current utility and future prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayanan, Kumar; Chugh, Sumeet S

    2015-10-01

    More than 100 years after it was first invented, the 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) continues to occupy an important place in the diagnostic armamentarium of the practicing clinician. With the recognition of relatively rare but important clinical entities such as Wolff-Parkinson-White and the long QT syndrome, this clinical tool was firmly established as a test for assessing risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). However, over the past two decades the role of the ECG in risk prediction for common forms of SCD, for example in patients with coronary artery disease, has been the focus of considerable investigation. Especially in light of the limitations of current risk stratification approaches, there is a renewed focus on this broadly available and relatively inexpensive test. Various abnormalities of depolarization and repolarization on the ECG have been linked to SCD risk; however, more focused work is needed before they can be deployed in the clinical arena. The present review summarizes the current knowledge on various ECG risk markers for prediction of SCD and discusses some future directions in this field. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2015. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Risk aversion in medical decision making: a survey

    OpenAIRE

    Liliana Chicaíza; Mario García; Giancarlo Romano

    2011-01-01

    This article surveys the literature on risk aversion in medical decision making. The search covered Econlit, Jstor Science Direct and Springer Link since 1985. The results are classified in three topics: Risk aversion in the frameworks of Expected Utility and Rank Dependent Expected Utility theories, and the methodologies for measuring risk aversion and its applications to clinical situations from the points of view of economics and psychology. It was found that, despite conceptual and method...

  9. Risk communication by utilizing environmental ethics as meta-cognition for high level radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kugo, Akihide; Uda, Akinobu; Shimoda, Hiroshi; Yoshikawa, Hidekazu; Ito, Kyoko; Wakabayashi, Yasunaga

    2005-01-01

    Though the high level radioactive waste disposal policy in Japan has been clearly stated, this issue is still unfamiliar with the general public, who tend to make a social decision based on heuristics. Therefore, much effort such as developing risk communication system is required to restrain the general public from making a negative decision which may bring social dilemma. However, societal consensus on acceptable disposal practice will be very difficult to attain in a short period of time. The purpose of this research was to verify the effect of web risk communication model which has dialog-mode contents with environmental ethics as a meta-cognition and a bulletin board system in light of developing objective risk cognition. The experimental result suggested that this model was able to inspire subjective norm and introspection towards the necessity of pro-social behaviors more effectively than a one-way lecture. (author)

  10. The metabolic syndrome: validity and utility of clinical definitions for cardiovascular disease and diabetes risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Adrian

    2010-02-01

    The purpose of clinical definitions of the metabolic syndrome is frequently misunderstood. While the metabolic syndrome as a physiological process describes a clustering of numerous age-related metabolic abnormalities that together increase the risk for cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes, clinical definitions include obesity which is thought to be a cause rather than a consequence of metabolic disturbance, and several elements that are routinely measured in clinical practice, including high blood pressure, high blood glucose and dyslipidaemia. Obesity is frequently a central player in the development of the metabolic syndrome and should be considered a key component of clinical definitions. Previous clinical definitions have differed in the priority given to obesity. Perhaps more importantly than its role in a clinical definition, however, is obesity in isolation before the hallmarks of metabolic dysfunction that typify the syndrome have developed. This should be treated seriously as an opportunity to prevent the consequences of the global diabetes epidemic now apparent. Clinical definitions were designed to identify a population at high lifetime CVD and type 2 diabetes risk, but in the absence of several major risk factors for each condition, are not optimal risk prediction devices for either. Despite this, the metabolic syndrome has several properties that make it a useful construct, in conjunction with short-term risk prediction algorithms and sound clinical judgement, for the identification of those at high lifetime risk of CVD and diabetes. A recently published consensus definition provides some much needed clarity about what a clinical definition entails. Even this, however, remains a work in progress until more evidence becomes available, particularly in the area of ethnicity-specific waist cut-points. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Possibilities of Utilization the Risk – Based Techniques in the Field of Offshore Wind Power Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemysław Kacprzak

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In the article the risk-based concept that may be applicable to offshore wind power plants has been presented. The aim of the concept is to aid designers in the early design and retrofit phases of the project in case of lack or insufficient information in relevant international standards. Moreover the initial classification of components within main system parts of offshore wind power plant has been performed. Such classification is essential in order to apply risk-based concept. However further scientific researches need to be performed in that field to develop detailed concept useful for future practical applications.

  12. Regulatory risk in the utilities industry: An empirical study of the English-speaking countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaggero, Alberto A.

    2007-01-01

    The economic theory on regulation suggests that firms subject to incentive regulation, such as price cap, bear more risk than firms subject to cost plus regulation, such as rate of return regulation. This hypothesis is tested empirically using a sample of 93 regulated companies operating in six English-speaking countries: Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, UK and USA, during the period 1995-2004. I replicate the methodology of the existing literature and also apply panel data techniques to my sample. The results obtained do not support the hypothesis that price cap regulation imposes more risk. (author)

  13. Let Us Rank Journalism Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Joseph

    2014-01-01

    Unlike law, business, and medical schools, as well as universities in general, journalism schools and journalism programs have rarely been ranked. Publishers such as "U.S. News & World Report," "Forbes," "Bloomberg Businessweek," and "Washington Monthly" do not pay them much mind. What is the best…

  14. On Rank Driven Dynamical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veerman, J. J. P.; Prieto, F. J.

    2014-08-01

    We investigate a class of models related to the Bak-Sneppen (BS) model, initially proposed to study evolution. The BS model is extremely simple and yet captures some forms of "complex behavior" such as self-organized criticality that is often observed in physical and biological systems. In this model, random fitnesses in are associated to agents located at the vertices of a graph . Their fitnesses are ranked from worst (0) to best (1). At every time-step the agent with the worst fitness and some others with a priori given rank probabilities are replaced by new agents with random fitnesses. We consider two cases: The exogenous case where the new fitnesses are taken from an a priori fixed distribution, and the endogenous case where the new fitnesses are taken from the current distribution as it evolves. We approximate the dynamics by making a simplifying independence assumption. We use Order Statistics and Dynamical Systems to define a rank-driven dynamical system that approximates the evolution of the distribution of the fitnesses in these rank-driven models, as well as in the BS model. For this simplified model we can find the limiting marginal distribution as a function of the initial conditions. Agreement with experimental results of the BS model is excellent.

  15. PageRank (II): Mathematics

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    maths/stats

    ... GAUSS SEIDEL'S. NUMERICAL ALGORITHMS IN PAGE RANK ANALYSIS. ... The convergence is guaranteed, if the absolute value of the largest eigen ... improved Gauss-Seidel iteration algorithm, based on the decomposition. U. L. D. M. +. +. = ..... This corresponds to determine the eigen vector of T with eigen value 1.

  16. Modeling of Mean-VaR portfolio optimization by risk tolerance when the utility function is quadratic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukono, Sidi, Pramono; Bon, Abdul Talib bin; Supian, Sudradjat

    2017-03-01

    The problems of investing in financial assets are to choose a combination of weighting a portfolio can be maximized return expectations and minimizing the risk. This paper discusses the modeling of Mean-VaR portfolio optimization by risk tolerance, when square-shaped utility functions. It is assumed that the asset return has a certain distribution, and the risk of the portfolio is measured using the Value-at-Risk (VaR). So, the process of optimization of the portfolio is done based on the model of Mean-VaR portfolio optimization model for the Mean-VaR done using matrix algebra approach, and the Lagrange multiplier method, as well as Khun-Tucker. The results of the modeling portfolio optimization is in the form of a weighting vector equations depends on the vector mean return vector assets, identities, and matrix covariance between return of assets, as well as a factor in risk tolerance. As an illustration of numeric, analyzed five shares traded on the stock market in Indonesia. Based on analysis of five stocks return data gained the vector of weight composition and graphics of efficient surface of portfolio. Vector composition weighting weights and efficient surface charts can be used as a guide for investors in decisions to invest.

  17. Who reaps the benefits, who bears the risks? Comparative optimism, comparative utility, and regulatory preferences for mobile phone technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Mathew P; Eiser, J Richard; Harris, Peter R; Pahl, Sabine

    2007-06-01

    Although the issue of risk target (e.g., self, others, children) is widely acknowledged in risk perception research, its importance appears underappreciated. To date, most research has been satisfied with demonstrating comparative optimism, i.e., lower perceived risk for the self than others, and exploring its moderators, such as perceived controllability and personal exposure. Much less research has investigated how the issue of target may affect benefit perceptions or key outcomes such as stated preferences for hazard regulation. The current research investigated these issues using data from a public survey of attitudes toward mobile phone technology (N= 1,320). First, results demonstrated comparative optimism for this hazard, and also found moderating effects of both controllability and personal exposure. Second, there was evidence of comparative utility, i.e., users believed that the benefits from mobile phone technology are greater for the self than others. Third, and most important for policy, preferences for handset regulation were best predicted by perceptions of the risks to others but perceived benefits for the self. Results suggest a closer awareness of target can improve prediction of stated preferences for hazard regulation and that it would be profitable for future research to pay more attention to the issue of target for both risk and benefit perceptions.

  18. Multiple graph regularized protein domain ranking

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Jim Jing-Yan

    2012-11-19

    Background: Protein domain ranking is a fundamental task in structural biology. Most protein domain ranking methods rely on the pairwise comparison of protein domains while neglecting the global manifold structure of the protein domain database. Recently, graph regularized ranking that exploits the global structure of the graph defined by the pairwise similarities has been proposed. However, the existing graph regularized ranking methods are very sensitive to the choice of the graph model and parameters, and this remains a difficult problem for most of the protein domain ranking methods.Results: To tackle this problem, we have developed the Multiple Graph regularized Ranking algorithm, MultiG-Rank. Instead of using a single graph to regularize the ranking scores, MultiG-Rank approximates the intrinsic manifold of protein domain distribution by combining multiple initial graphs for the regularization. Graph weights are learned with ranking scores jointly and automatically, by alternately minimizing an objective function in an iterative algorithm. Experimental results on a subset of the ASTRAL SCOP protein domain database demonstrate that MultiG-Rank achieves a better ranking performance than single graph regularized ranking methods and pairwise similarity based ranking methods.Conclusion: The problem of graph model and parameter selection in graph regularized protein domain ranking can be solved effectively by combining multiple graphs. This aspect of generalization introduces a new frontier in applying multiple graphs to solving protein domain ranking applications. 2012 Wang et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

  19. Multiple graph regularized protein domain ranking

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Jim Jing-Yan; Bensmail, Halima; Gao, Xin

    2012-01-01

    Background: Protein domain ranking is a fundamental task in structural biology. Most protein domain ranking methods rely on the pairwise comparison of protein domains while neglecting the global manifold structure of the protein domain database. Recently, graph regularized ranking that exploits the global structure of the graph defined by the pairwise similarities has been proposed. However, the existing graph regularized ranking methods are very sensitive to the choice of the graph model and parameters, and this remains a difficult problem for most of the protein domain ranking methods.Results: To tackle this problem, we have developed the Multiple Graph regularized Ranking algorithm, MultiG-Rank. Instead of using a single graph to regularize the ranking scores, MultiG-Rank approximates the intrinsic manifold of protein domain distribution by combining multiple initial graphs for the regularization. Graph weights are learned with ranking scores jointly and automatically, by alternately minimizing an objective function in an iterative algorithm. Experimental results on a subset of the ASTRAL SCOP protein domain database demonstrate that MultiG-Rank achieves a better ranking performance than single graph regularized ranking methods and pairwise similarity based ranking methods.Conclusion: The problem of graph model and parameter selection in graph regularized protein domain ranking can be solved effectively by combining multiple graphs. This aspect of generalization introduces a new frontier in applying multiple graphs to solving protein domain ranking applications. 2012 Wang et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

  20. 14 CFR 1214.1105 - Final ranking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Final ranking. 1214.1105 Section 1214.1105... Recruitment and Selection Program § 1214.1105 Final ranking. Final rankings will be based on a combination of... preference will be included in this final ranking in accordance with applicable regulations. ...

  1. Multiple graph regularized protein domain ranking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jim Jing-Yan; Bensmail, Halima; Gao, Xin

    2012-11-19

    Protein domain ranking is a fundamental task in structural biology. Most protein domain ranking methods rely on the pairwise comparison of protein domains while neglecting the global manifold structure of the protein domain database. Recently, graph regularized ranking that exploits the global structure of the graph defined by the pairwise similarities has been proposed. However, the existing graph regularized ranking methods are very sensitive to the choice of the graph model and parameters, and this remains a difficult problem for most of the protein domain ranking methods. To tackle this problem, we have developed the Multiple Graph regularized Ranking algorithm, MultiG-Rank. Instead of using a single graph to regularize the ranking scores, MultiG-Rank approximates the intrinsic manifold of protein domain distribution by combining multiple initial graphs for the regularization. Graph weights are learned with ranking scores jointly and automatically, by alternately minimizing an objective function in an iterative algorithm. Experimental results on a subset of the ASTRAL SCOP protein domain database demonstrate that MultiG-Rank achieves a better ranking performance than single graph regularized ranking methods and pairwise similarity based ranking methods. The problem of graph model and parameter selection in graph regularized protein domain ranking can be solved effectively by combining multiple graphs. This aspect of generalization introduces a new frontier in applying multiple graphs to solving protein domain ranking applications.

  2. Multiple graph regularized protein domain ranking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Jim

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Protein domain ranking is a fundamental task in structural biology. Most protein domain ranking methods rely on the pairwise comparison of protein domains while neglecting the global manifold structure of the protein domain database. Recently, graph regularized ranking that exploits the global structure of the graph defined by the pairwise similarities has been proposed. However, the existing graph regularized ranking methods are very sensitive to the choice of the graph model and parameters, and this remains a difficult problem for most of the protein domain ranking methods. Results To tackle this problem, we have developed the Multiple Graph regularized Ranking algorithm, MultiG-Rank. Instead of using a single graph to regularize the ranking scores, MultiG-Rank approximates the intrinsic manifold of protein domain distribution by combining multiple initial graphs for the regularization. Graph weights are learned with ranking scores jointly and automatically, by alternately minimizing an objective function in an iterative algorithm. Experimental results on a subset of the ASTRAL SCOP protein domain database demonstrate that MultiG-Rank achieves a better ranking performance than single graph regularized ranking methods and pairwise similarity based ranking methods. Conclusion The problem of graph model and parameter selection in graph regularized protein domain ranking can be solved effectively by combining multiple graphs. This aspect of generalization introduces a new frontier in applying multiple graphs to solving protein domain ranking applications.

  3. Quantitative Adverse Outcome Pathways and their Utility to Ecological Risk Assessments of Endangered Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological risk assessments of endangered species are often hampered by a lack of knowledge about the sensitivity of endangered species to chemicals of concern. However, traditional in vivo toxicity testing of endangered species is often not possible for practical and ethical rea...

  4. The Utility of Risk Assessment Instruments for the Prediction of Recidivism in Sexual Homicide Perpetrators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Andreas; Rettenberger, Martin; Habermann, Niels; Berner, Wolfgang; Eher, Reinhard; Briken, Peer

    2012-01-01

    To examine the predictive accuracy of four well established risk assessment instruments (PCL-R, HCR-20, SVR-20, and Static-99) in an important subgroup of sexual offenders, these instruments were assessed retrospectively based on information from forensic psychiatric court reports in a sample of 90 released male sexual homicide offenders (out of…

  5. Utilization of mathematical models to manage risk of holding cold food without temperature control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaffner, Donald W

    2013-06-01

    This document describes the development of a tool to manage the risk of the transportation of cold food without temperature control. The tool uses predictions from ComBase predictor and builds on the 2009 U.S. Food and Drug Administration Model Food Code and supporting scientific data in the Food Code annex. I selected Salmonella spp. and Listeria monocytogenes as the organisms for risk management. Salmonella spp. were selected because they are associated with a wide variety of foods and grow rapidly at temperatures >17°C. L. monocytogenes was selected because it is frequently present in the food processing environment, it was used in the original analysis contained in the Food Code Annex, and it grows relatively rapidly at temperatures supplier collected as part of this project. The resulting model-based tool will be a useful aid to risk managers and customers of wholesale cash and carry food service suppliers, as well as to anyone interested in assessing and managing the risks posed by holding cold foods out of temperature control in supermarkets, delis, restaurants, cafeterias, and homes.

  6. Risk-benefit analysis for mass screening of breast cancer utilizing mammography as a screening test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iinuma, T.A.; Tateno, Yukio

    1989-01-01

    Incidence of breast cancers in Japanese women is increasing steadily. Mass screening of breast cancer was started in Japan under auspices of Adult Health Promotion Act of the Japanese Government from 1987. As the first screening method, the palpation of breasts is employed at present, but it is expected to be replaced by the mammography. In this report, the risk-benefit analysis is presented between risk of breast carcinogenesis due to radiation and benefit of mass screening of breast cancer. The benefit of mass screening is taken as the net elongation of average life expectancy of women due to survival from breast cancers. The risk of mammography is taken as the net loss of average life expectancy of women due to breast carcinogenesis. In the latter, the latency time and plateau period of radiation carcinogenesis were taken into consideration in the calculation. The results show that the ages at which the benefit and risk become equal are between 30 and 35 years old when dose equivalent of mammography is between 10 and 20 mSv, that are conventionally used. However, the critical age will be reduced to 20 years old if the dose equivalent becomes 1 mSv. Therefore, it is strongly recommended that a low dose mammographic system should be developed in order to achieve 1 mSv for the mass screening of breast cancer of Japanese women. In author's opinion, this is quite feasible by employing a new digital radiography with imaging plate. (author)

  7. A Survey on PageRank Computing

    OpenAIRE

    Berkhin, Pavel

    2005-01-01

    This survey reviews the research related to PageRank computing. Components of a PageRank vector serve as authority weights for web pages independent of their textual content, solely based on the hyperlink structure of the web. PageRank is typically used as a web search ranking component. This defines the importance of the model and the data structures that underly PageRank processing. Computing even a single PageRank is a difficult computational task. Computing many PageRanks is a much mor...

  8. Time evolution of Wikipedia network ranking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eom, Young-Ho; Frahm, Klaus M.; Benczúr, András; Shepelyansky, Dima L.

    2013-12-01

    We study the time evolution of ranking and spectral properties of the Google matrix of English Wikipedia hyperlink network during years 2003-2011. The statistical properties of ranking of Wikipedia articles via PageRank and CheiRank probabilities, as well as the matrix spectrum, are shown to be stabilized for 2007-2011. A special emphasis is done on ranking of Wikipedia personalities and universities. We show that PageRank selection is dominated by politicians while 2DRank, which combines PageRank and CheiRank, gives more accent on personalities of arts. The Wikipedia PageRank of universities recovers 80% of top universities of Shanghai ranking during the considered time period.

  9. Utility of Childhood Glucose Homeostasis Variables in Predicting Adult Diabetes and Related Cardiometabolic Risk Factors

    OpenAIRE

    Nguyen, Quoc Manh; Srinivasan, Sathanur R.; Xu, Ji-Hua; Chen, Wei; Kieltyka, Lyn; Berenson, Gerald S.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE This study examines the usefulness of childhood glucose homeostasis variables (glucose, insulin, and insulin resistance index [homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance {HOMA-IR}]) in predicting pre-diabetes and type 2 diabetes and related cardiometabolic risk factors in adulthood. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This retrospective cohort study consisted of normoglycemic (n = 1,058), pre-diabetic (n = 37), and type 2 diabetic (n = 25) adults aged 19–39 years who were followed o...

  10. Travel Burden to Breast MRI and Utilization: Are Risk and Sociodemographics Related?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onega, Tracy; Lee, Christoph I; Benkeser, David; Alford-Teaster, Jennifer; Haas, Jennifer S; Tosteson, Anna N A; Hill, Deirdre; Shi, Xun; Henderson, Louise M; Hubbard, Rebecca A

    2016-06-01

    Mammography, unlike MRI, is relatively geographically accessible. Additional travel time is often required to access breast MRI. However, the amount of additional travel time and whether it varies on the basis of sociodemographic or breast cancer risk factors is unknown. The investigators examined screening mammography and MRI between 2005 and 2012 in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium by (1) travel time to the closest and actual mammography facility used and the difference between the two, (2) women's breast cancer risk factors, and (3) sociodemographic characteristics. Logistic regression was used to examine the odds of traveling farther than the closest facility in relation to women's characteristics. Among 821,683 screening mammographic examinations, 76.6% occurred at the closest facility, compared with 51.9% of screening MRI studies (n = 3,687). The median differential travel time among women not using the closest facility for mammography was 14 min (interquartile range, 8-25 min) versus 20 min (interquartile range, 11-40 min) for breast MRI. Differential travel time for both imaging modalities did not vary notably by breast cancer risk factors but was significantly longer for nonurban residents. For non-Hispanic black compared with non-Hispanic white women, the adjusted odds of traveling farther than the closest facility were 9% lower for mammography (odds ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.87-0.95) but more than two times higher for MRI (odds ratio, 2.64; 95% confidence interval, 1.36-5.13). Breast cancer risk factors were not related to excess travel time for screening MRI, but sociodemographic factors were, suggesting the possibility that geographic distribution of advanced imaging may exacerbated disparities for some vulnerable populations. Copyright © 2016 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. The patient perspective: utilizing focus groups to inform care coordination for high-risk medicaid populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheff, Alex; Park, Elyse R; Neagle, Mary; Oreskovic, Nicolas M

    2017-07-25

    Care coordination programs for high-risk, high-cost patients are a critical component of population health management. These programs aim to improve outcomes and reduce costs and have proliferated over the last decade. Some programs, originally designed for Medicare patients, are now transitioning to also serve Medicaid populations. However, there are still gaps in the understanding of what barriers to care Medicaid patients experience, and what supports will be most effective for providing them care coordination. We conducted two focus groups (n = 13) and thematic analyses to assess the outcomes drivers and programmatic preferences of Medicaid patients enrolled in a high-risk care coordination program at a major academic medical center in Boston, MA. Two focus groups identified areas where care coordination efforts were having a positive impact, as well as areas of unmet needs among the Medicaid population. Six themes emerged from the focus groups that clustered in three groupings: In the first group (1) enrollment in an existing medical care coordination programs, and (2) provider communication largely presented as positive accounts of assistance, and good relationships with providers, though participants also pointed to areas where these efforts fell short. In the second group (3) trauma histories, (4) mental health challenges, and (5) executive function difficulties all presented challenges faced by high-risk Medicaid patients that would likely require redress through additional programmatic supports. Finally, in the third group, (6) peer-to-peer support tendencies among patients suggested an untapped resource for care coordination programs. Programs aimed at high-risk Medicaid patients will want to consider programmatic adjustments to attend to patient needs in five areas: (1) provider connection/care coordination, (2) trauma, (3) mental health, (4) executive function/paperwork and coaching support, and (5) peer-to-peer support.

  12. Bayesian Plackett-Luce Mixture Models for Partially Ranked Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollica, Cristina; Tardella, Luca

    2017-06-01

    The elicitation of an ordinal judgment on multiple alternatives is often required in many psychological and behavioral experiments to investigate preference/choice orientation of a specific population. The Plackett-Luce model is one of the most popular and frequently applied parametric distributions to analyze rankings of a finite set of items. The present work introduces a Bayesian finite mixture of Plackett-Luce models to account for unobserved sample heterogeneity of partially ranked data. We describe an efficient way to incorporate the latent group structure in the data augmentation approach and the derivation of existing maximum likelihood procedures as special instances of the proposed Bayesian method. Inference can be conducted with the combination of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm for maximum a posteriori estimation and the Gibbs sampling iterative procedure. We additionally investigate several Bayesian criteria for selecting the optimal mixture configuration and describe diagnostic tools for assessing the fitness of ranking distributions conditionally and unconditionally on the number of ranked items. The utility of the novel Bayesian parametric Plackett-Luce mixture for characterizing sample heterogeneity is illustrated with several applications to simulated and real preference ranked data. We compare our method with the frequentist approach and a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model both assuming the Plackett-Luce model as a mixture component. Our analysis on real datasets reveals the importance of an accurate diagnostic check for an appropriate in-depth understanding of the heterogenous nature of the partial ranking data.

  13. Utilization of artificial recharged effluent for irrigation: pollutants' removal and risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liangliang Wei

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The reclaimed water from soil aquifer treatment (SAT column was reused for irrigation as the source water, pollutants' removal and health risk assessment was analyzed via the comparison with secondary and tertiary effluents. The effect of the SAT pre-treatment on the qualities and growth of different crops (Lachca sativa – lettuce, Brasica rapa var chinensis – pak choi, Cucumis sativus – cucumber, Brassica oleracea – cabbage, and Zea mays – maize were evaluated. Experimental results demonstrated that the tertiary and SAT treatments had no significant effect on the crop qualities, and could efficiently decrease the accumulation of heavy metals (especially for SAT pre-treatment. Moreover, the carcinogenic risk of the chemical carcinogens for the 1.5 m SAT effluent irrigation declined roughly an order of magnitude as compared with the secondary effluent, and three to four orders of magnitude decreasing of the virus risk. These findings are significant for the safe and cheap reuse of secondary effluent for irrigation purposes.

  14. Multimodal biometric system using rank-level fusion approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monwar, Md Maruf; Gavrilova, Marina L

    2009-08-01

    In many real-world applications, unimodal biometric systems often face significant limitations due to sensitivity to noise, intraclass variability, data quality, nonuniversality, and other factors. Attempting to improve the performance of individual matchers in such situations may not prove to be highly effective. Multibiometric systems seek to alleviate some of these problems by providing multiple pieces of evidence of the same identity. These systems help achieve an increase in performance that may not be possible using a single-biometric indicator. This paper presents an effective fusion scheme that combines information presented by multiple domain experts based on the rank-level fusion integration method. The developed multimodal biometric system possesses a number of unique qualities, starting from utilizing principal component analysis and Fisher's linear discriminant methods for individual matchers (face, ear, and signature) identity authentication and utilizing the novel rank-level fusion method in order to consolidate the results obtained from different biometric matchers. The ranks of individual matchers are combined using the highest rank, Borda count, and logistic regression approaches. The results indicate that fusion of individual modalities can improve the overall performance of the biometric system, even in the presence of low quality data. Insights on multibiometric design using rank-level fusion and its performance on a variety of biometric databases are discussed in the concluding section.

  15. Research on B Cell Algorithm for Learning to Rank Method Based on Parallel Strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Yuling; Zhang, Hongxian

    2016-01-01

    For the purposes of information retrieval, users must find highly relevant documents from within a system (and often a quite large one comprised of many individual documents) based on input query. Ranking the documents according to their relevance within the system to meet user needs is a challenging endeavor, and a hot research topic-there already exist several rank-learning methods based on machine learning techniques which can generate ranking functions automatically. This paper proposes a parallel B cell algorithm, RankBCA, for rank learning which utilizes a clonal selection mechanism based on biological immunity. The novel algorithm is compared with traditional rank-learning algorithms through experimentation and shown to outperform the others in respect to accuracy, learning time, and convergence rate; taken together, the experimental results show that the proposed algorithm indeed effectively and rapidly identifies optimal ranking functions.

  16. Risks associated with antiretroviral treatment for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV): qualitative analysis of social media data and health state utility valuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matza, Louis S; Chung, Karen C; Kim, Katherine J; Paulus, Trena M; Davies, Evan W; Stewart, Katie D; McComsey, Grace A; Fordyce, Marshall W

    2017-07-01

    Despite benefits of antiretroviral therapies (ART), people with HIV infection have increased risk of cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, and low bone mineral density. Some ARTs increase risk of these events. The purpose of this study was to examine patients' perspectives of these risks and estimate health state utilities associated with these risks for use in cost-utility models. Qualitative thematic analysis was conducted to examine messages posted to the POZ/AIDSmeds Internet community forums, focusing on bone, kidney, and cardiovascular side effects and risks of HIV/AIDS medications. Then, health state vignettes were drafted based on this qualitative analysis, literature review, and clinician interviews. The health states (representing HIV, plus treatment-related risks) were valued in time trade-off interviews with general population participants in the UK. Qualitative analysis of the Internet forums documented patient concerns about ART risks, as well as treatment decisions made because of these risks. A total of 208 participants completed utility interviews (51.4% female; mean age 44.6 years). The mean utility of the HIV health state (virologically suppressed, treated with ART) was 0.86. Adding a description of risk resulted in statistically significant disutility (i.e., utility decreases): renal risk (disutility = -0.02), bone risk (-0.03), and myocardial infarction risk (-0.05). Patient concerns and treatment decisions were documented via qualitative analysis of Internet forum discussions, and the impact of these concerns was quantified in terms of health state utilities. The resulting disutilities may be useful for differentiating among ARTs in economic modeling of treatment for patients with HIV.

  17. Utility of the immature platelet fraction in pediatric immune thrombocytopenia: Differentiating from bone marrow failure and predicting bleeding risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonnell, Alicia; Bride, Karen L; Lim, Derick; Paessler, Michele; Witmer, Char M; Lambert, Michele P

    2018-02-01

    Differentiating childhood immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) from other cause of thrombocytopenia remains a diagnosis of exclusion. Additionally factors that predict bleeding risk for those patients with ITP are currently not well understood. Previous small studies have suggested that immature platelet fraction (IPF) may differentiate ITP from other causes of thrombocytopenia and in combination with other factors may predict bleeding risk. We performed a retrospective chart review of thrombocytopenic patients with an IPF measured between November 1, 2013 and July 1, 2015. Patients were between 2 months and 21 years of age with a platelet count bleeding symptoms. A bleeding severity score was retrospectively assigned. Two hundred seventy two patients met inclusion criteria, 97 with ITP, 11 with bone marrow failure (BMF), 126 with malignancy, and 38 with other causes of thrombocytopenia. An IPF > 5.2% differentiated ITP from BMF with 93% sensitivity and 91% specificity. Absolute immature platelet number (AIPN) was significantly lower in ITP patients with severe to life-threatening hemorrhage than those without, despite similar platelet counts. On multivariate analysis, an IPF bleeding risk at platelet counts <10 × 10 9 /l in patients with ITP. IPF measurement alone has utility in both the diagnosis of ITP and identifying patients at increased risk of hemorrhage. Further study is required to understand the pathophysiological differences of ITP patients with lower IPF/AIPN. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Risk mitigation process for utilization of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) parts in CCD camera for military applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Anees; Batcheldor, Scott; Cannon, Steven C.; Roberts, Thomas E.

    2002-09-01

    This paper presents the lessons learned during the design and development of a high performance cooled CCD camera for military applications utilizing common commercial off the shelf (COTS) parts. Our experience showed that concurrent evaluation and testing of high risk COTS must be performed to assess their performance over the required temperature range and other special product requirements such as fuel vapor compatibility, EMI and shock susceptibility, etc. Technical, cost and schedule risks for COTS parts must also be carefully evaluated. The customer must be involved in the selection and evaluation of such parts so that the performance limitations of the selected parts are clearly understood. It is equally important to check with vendors on the availability and obsolescence of the COTS parts being considered since the electronic components are often replaced by newer, better and cheaper models in a couple of years. In summary, this paper addresses the major benefits and risks associated with using commercial and industrial parts in military products, and suggests a risk mitigation approach to ensure a smooth development phase, and predictable performance from the end product.

  19. First rank symptoms for schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares-Weiser, Karla; Maayan, Nicola; Bergman, Hanna; Davenport, Clare; Kirkham, Amanda J; Grabowski, Sarah; Adams, Clive E

    2015-01-25

    Early and accurate diagnosis and treatment of schizophrenia may have long-term advantages for the patient; the longer psychosis goes untreated the more severe the repercussions for relapse and recovery. If the correct diagnosis is not schizophrenia, but another psychotic disorder with some symptoms similar to schizophrenia, appropriate treatment might be delayed, with possible severe repercussions for the person involved and their family. There is widespread uncertainty about the diagnostic accuracy of First Rank Symptoms (FRS); we examined whether they are a useful diagnostic tool to differentiate schizophrenia from other psychotic disorders. To determine the diagnostic accuracy of one or multiple FRS for diagnosing schizophrenia, verified by clinical history and examination by a qualified professional (e.g. psychiatrists, nurses, social workers), with or without the use of operational criteria and checklists, in people thought to have non-organic psychotic symptoms. We conducted searches in MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycInfo using OvidSP in April, June, July 2011 and December 2012. We also searched MEDION in December 2013. We selected studies that consecutively enrolled or randomly selected adults and adolescents with symptoms of psychosis, and assessed the diagnostic accuracy of FRS for schizophrenia compared to history and clinical examination performed by a qualified professional, which may or may not involve the use of symptom checklists or based on operational criteria such as ICD and DSM. Two review authors independently screened all references for inclusion. Risk of bias in included studies were assessed using the QUADAS-2 instrument. We recorded the number of true positives (TP), true negatives (TN), false positives (FP), and false negatives (FN) for constructing a 2 x 2 table for each study or derived 2 x 2 data from reported summary statistics such as sensitivity, specificity, and/or likelihood ratios. We included 21 studies with a total of 6253 participants

  20. Reducing the risk of cyber threats in utilities through log management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patnaik, A. [ArcSight, Cupertino, CA (United States)

    2010-01-15

    Electrical blackouts caused by terrorists hacking into targeted control systems have already occurred in Brazil. A patchwork of security tools is needed to reduce potential threats. The continuous collection and analysis of data is also needed to detect cyber threats. The real time correlation of logs across all systems, applications and users is needed to ensure the reliability and security of the power grid. Solutions must also integrate well with identity management sources in order to prevent remote access account hijacking. Effective log management can be used to detect threats and reduce the risk of power outages. 1 fig.

  1. Utility of home sleep apnea testing in high-risk veterans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cairns, Alyssa; Sarmiento, Kathleen; Bogan, Richard

    2017-09-01

    Many Veterans Affairs Medical Centers (VAMCs) have implemented home sleep apnea testing (HSAT) in lieu of traditional in-lab testing to establish a timely and cost-sensitive diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). However, concern remains for the sensitivity and specificity of said technology in this population as many veterans are at increased risk for many of the comorbid conditions that can limit the accuracy of HSAT results. Hence, the purpose of this study is to evaluate rate of incongruent outcomes (e.g., negative HSAT results despite high clinical symptomology) as well as differences in study quality metrics and predictors of OSA between veteran sleep patients and general sleep patients being evaluated by a home sleep test. A random sample of HSAT outcomes from 1500 veterans and 1500 general sleep clinic patients was retrieved from a repository of anonymized HSAT outcomes from 2009 to 2013. General sleep clinic data were from patients referred for home sleep testing from a variety of clinical practices across North America, whereas VAMC patients were tested using a central dissemination process. All patients were tested for OSA using the Apnea Risk and Evaluation System (ARES), an HSAT that simultaneously records airflow, pulse oximetry, snoring, accelerometry, and EEG. Sample differences and rates of comorbidities, HSAT outcomes, predictors of OSA, and pretest OSA risk information were evaluated between groups. The presence of OSA was defined as an apnea-hypopnea index (AHI; using 4% desaturation criterion) of ≥5 and ≥15 events per hour. Sample differences in predictors of OSA were evaluated using logistic multiple regression. Veterans (91.3% male) were more likely to report comorbidities, especially depression, insomnia, hypertension, diabetes, restless legs syndrome (RLS), and use of sleep and pain medications compared to general sleep clinic patients (57.1% male). Despite differences in the rate of medical comorbidities, no differences were

  2. Validating rankings in soccer championships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annibal Parracho Sant'Anna

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The final ranking of a championship is determined by quality attributes combined with other factors which should be filtered out of any decision on relegation or draft for upper level tournaments. Factors like referees' mistakes and difficulty of certain matches due to its accidental importance to the opponents should have their influence reduced. This work tests approaches to combine classification rules considering the imprecision of the number of points as a measure of quality and of the variables that provide reliable explanation for it. Two home-advantage variables are tested and shown to be apt to enter as explanatory variables. Independence between the criteria is checked against the hypothesis of maximal correlation. The importance of factors and of composition rules is evaluated on the basis of correlation between rank vectors, number of classes and number of clubs in tail classes. Data from five years of the Brazilian Soccer Championship are analyzed.

  3. Favorable Cardiovascular Risk Profile Is Associated With Lower Healthcare Costs and Resource Utilization: The 2012 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valero-Elizondo, Javier; Salami, Joseph A; Ogunmoroti, Oluseye; Osondu, Chukwuemeka U; Aneni, Ehimen C; Malik, Rehan; Spatz, Erica S; Rana, Jamal S; Virani, Salim S; Blankstein, Ron; Blaha, Michael J; Veledar, Emir; Nasir, Khurram

    2016-03-01

    The American Heart Association's 2020 Strategic Goals emphasize the value of optimizing risk factor status to reduce the burden of morbidity and mortality. In this study, we aimed to quantify the overall and marginal impact of favorable cardiovascular risk factor (CRF) profile on healthcare expenditure and resource utilization in the United States among those with and without cardiovascular disease (CVD). The study population was derived from the 2012 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). Direct and indirect costs were calculated for all-cause healthcare resource utilization. Variables of interest included CVD diagnoses (coronary artery disease, stroke, peripheral artery disease, dysrhythmias, or heart failure), ascertained by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition, Clinical Modification codes, and CRF profile (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, physical activity, and obesity). Two-part econometric models were used to study expenditure data. The final study sample consisted of 15 651 MEPS participants (58.5±12 years, 54% female). Overall, 5921 (37.8%) had optimal, 7002 (44.7%) had average, and 2728 (17.4%) had poor CRF profile, translating to 54.2, 64.1, and 24.9 million adults in United States, respectively. Significantly lower health expenditures were noted with favorable CRF profile across CVD status. Among study participants with established CVD, overall healthcare expenditures with optimal and average CRF profile were $5946 and $3731 less compared with those with poor CRF profile. The respective differences were $4031 and $2560 in those without CVD. Favorable CRF profile is associated with significantly lower medical expenditure and healthcare utilization among individuals with and without established CVD. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  4. The continuum of monocyte phenotypes: Experimental evidence and prognostic utility in assessing cardiovascular risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cignarella, Andrea; Tedesco, Serena; Cappellari, Roberta; Fadini, Gian Paolo

    2018-03-30

    The monocyte-macrophage cell lineage represents a major player in innate immunity, and is involved in many physiologic and pathologic conditions. Particularly, monocyte-macrophages play a very important role in atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease. Monocyte heterogeneity is well recognized but the biologic and clinical meaning of the various monocyte subtypes is not entirely understood. Traditionally, monocytes can be divided in classical, intermediate, and nonclassical based on expression of the surface antigens CD14 and CD16. While macrophage diversity is now well recognized to organize as a continuum, monocyte subsets have long been considered as separated entities. However, mounting evidence obtained by tracking the ontology of human monocytes help clarifying that monocytes mature from classical to nonclassical ones, through an intermediate phenotype. This concept is therefore best depicted as a continuum, whereas the subdivision into discrete CD14/CD16 subsets appears an oversimplification. In this review, we discuss the evidence supporting the existence of a monocyte continuum along with the technical challenges of monocyte characterization. In particular, we describe the advantage of considering monocytes along a continuous distribution for the evaluation of cardiovascular risk. We make the point that small transition along the monocyte continuum better reflects cardiovascular risk than a simplified analysis of discrete monocyte subsets. Recognizing the monocyte continuum can be helpful to model other pathophysiologic conditions where these cells are involved. ©2018 Society for Leukocyte Biology.

  5. Minkowski metrics in creating universal ranking algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej Ameljańczyk

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a general procedure for creating the rankings of a set of objects, while the relation of preference based on any ranking function. The analysis was possible to use the ranking functions began by showing the fundamental drawbacks of commonly used functions in the form of a weighted sum. As a special case of the ranking procedure in the space of a relation, the procedure based on the notion of an ideal element and generalized Minkowski distance from the element was proposed. This procedure, presented as universal ranking algorithm, eliminates most of the disadvantages of ranking functions in the form of a weighted sum.[b]Keywords[/b]: ranking functions, preference relation, ranking clusters, categories, ideal point, universal ranking algorithm

  6. Functional Multiplex PageRank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iacovacci, Jacopo; Rahmede, Christoph; Arenas, Alex; Bianconi, Ginestra

    2016-10-01

    Recently it has been recognized that many complex social, technological and biological networks have a multilayer nature and can be described by multiplex networks. Multiplex networks are formed by a set of nodes connected by links having different connotations forming the different layers of the multiplex. Characterizing the centrality of the nodes in a multiplex network is a challenging task since the centrality of the node naturally depends on the importance associated to links of a certain type. Here we propose to assign to each node of a multiplex network a centrality called Functional Multiplex PageRank that is a function of the weights given to every different pattern of connections (multilinks) existent in the multiplex network between any two nodes. Since multilinks distinguish all the possible ways in which the links in different layers can overlap, the Functional Multiplex PageRank can describe important non-linear effects when large relevance or small relevance is assigned to multilinks with overlap. Here we apply the Functional Page Rank to the multiplex airport networks, to the neuronal network of the nematode C. elegans, and to social collaboration and citation networks between scientists. This analysis reveals important differences existing between the most central nodes of these networks, and the correlations between their so-called pattern to success.

  7. Low rank magnetic resonance fingerprinting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazor, Gal; Weizman, Lior; Tal, Assaf; Eldar, Yonina C

    2016-08-01

    Magnetic Resonance Fingerprinting (MRF) is a relatively new approach that provides quantitative MRI using randomized acquisition. Extraction of physical quantitative tissue values is preformed off-line, based on acquisition with varying parameters and a dictionary generated according to the Bloch equations. MRF uses hundreds of radio frequency (RF) excitation pulses for acquisition, and therefore high under-sampling ratio in the sampling domain (k-space) is required. This under-sampling causes spatial artifacts that hamper the ability to accurately estimate the quantitative tissue values. In this work, we introduce a new approach for quantitative MRI using MRF, called Low Rank MRF. We exploit the low rank property of the temporal domain, on top of the well-known sparsity of the MRF signal in the generated dictionary domain. We present an iterative scheme that consists of a gradient step followed by a low rank projection using the singular value decomposition. Experiments on real MRI data demonstrate superior results compared to conventional implementation of compressed sensing for MRF at 15% sampling ratio.

  8. Ranking Support Vector Machine with Kernel Approximation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Learning to rank algorithm has become important in recent years due to its successful application in information retrieval, recommender system, and computational biology, and so forth. Ranking support vector machine (RankSVM is one of the state-of-art ranking models and has been favorably used. Nonlinear RankSVM (RankSVM with nonlinear kernels can give higher accuracy than linear RankSVM (RankSVM with a linear kernel for complex nonlinear ranking problem. However, the learning methods for nonlinear RankSVM are still time-consuming because of the calculation of kernel matrix. In this paper, we propose a fast ranking algorithm based on kernel approximation to avoid computing the kernel matrix. We explore two types of kernel approximation methods, namely, the Nyström method and random Fourier features. Primal truncated Newton method is used to optimize the pairwise L2-loss (squared Hinge-loss objective function of the ranking model after the nonlinear kernel approximation. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method gets a much faster training speed than kernel RankSVM and achieves comparable or better performance over state-of-the-art ranking algorithms.

  9. Ranking Support Vector Machine with Kernel Approximation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kai; Li, Rongchun; Dou, Yong; Liang, Zhengfa; Lv, Qi

    2017-01-01

    Learning to rank algorithm has become important in recent years due to its successful application in information retrieval, recommender system, and computational biology, and so forth. Ranking support vector machine (RankSVM) is one of the state-of-art ranking models and has been favorably used. Nonlinear RankSVM (RankSVM with nonlinear kernels) can give higher accuracy than linear RankSVM (RankSVM with a linear kernel) for complex nonlinear ranking problem. However, the learning methods for nonlinear RankSVM are still time-consuming because of the calculation of kernel matrix. In this paper, we propose a fast ranking algorithm based on kernel approximation to avoid computing the kernel matrix. We explore two types of kernel approximation methods, namely, the Nyström method and random Fourier features. Primal truncated Newton method is used to optimize the pairwise L2-loss (squared Hinge-loss) objective function of the ranking model after the nonlinear kernel approximation. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method gets a much faster training speed than kernel RankSVM and achieves comparable or better performance over state-of-the-art ranking algorithms.

  10. Risk aversion and uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis: the expected-utility, moment-generating function approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elbasha, Elamin H

    2005-05-01

    The availability of patient-level data from clinical trials has spurred a lot of interest in developing methods for quantifying and presenting uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). Although the majority has focused on developing methods for using sample data to estimate a confidence interval for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), a small strand of the literature has emphasized the importance of incorporating risk preferences and the trade-off between the mean and the variance of returns to investment in health and medicine (mean-variance analysis). This paper shows how the exponential utility-moment-generating function approach is a natural extension to this branch of the literature for modelling choices from healthcare interventions with uncertain costs and effects. The paper assumes an exponential utility function, which implies constant absolute risk aversion, and is based on the fact that the expected value of this function results in a convenient expression that depends only on the moment-generating function of the random variables. The mean-variance approach is shown to be a special case of this more general framework. The paper characterizes the solution to the resource allocation problem using standard optimization techniques and derives the summary measure researchers need to estimate for each programme, when the assumption of risk neutrality does not hold, and compares it to the standard incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The importance of choosing the correct distribution of costs and effects and the issues related to estimation of the parameters of the distribution are also discussed. An empirical example to illustrate the methods and concepts is provided. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

  11. Analysis of Informed Consent Document Utilization in a Minimal-Risk Genetic Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desch, Karl; Li, Jun; Kim, Scott; Laventhal, Naomi; Metzger, Kristen; Siemieniak, David; Ginsburg, David

    2012-01-01

    Background The signed informed consent document certifies that the process of informed consent has taken place and provides research participants with comprehensive information about their role in the study. Despite efforts to optimize the informed consent document, only limited data are available about the actual use of consent documents by participants in biomedical research. Objective To examine the use of online consent documents in a minimal-risk genetic study. Design Prospective sibling cohort enrolled as part of a genetic study of hematologic and common human traits. Setting University of Michigan Campus, Ann Arbor, Michigan. Participants Volunteer sample of healthy persons with 1 or more eligible siblings aged 14 to 35 years. Enrollment was through targeted e-mail to student lists. A total of 1209 persons completed the study. Measurements Time taken by participants to review a 2833-word online consent document before indicating consent and identification of a masked hyperlink near the end of the document. Results The minimum predicted reading time was 566 seconds. The median time to consent was 53 seconds. A total of 23% of participants consented within 10 seconds, and 93% of participants consented in less than the minimum predicted reading time. A total of 2.5% of participants identified the masked hyperlink. Limitation The online consent process was not observed directly by study investigators, and some participants may have viewed the consent document more than once. Conclusion Few research participants thoroughly read the consent document before agreeing to participate in this genetic study. These data suggest that current informed consent documents, particularly for low-risk studies, may no longer serve the intended purpose of protecting human participants, and the role of these documents should be reassessed. Primary Funding Source National Institutes of Health. PMID:21893624

  12. Written Informed Consent for Computed Tomography of the Abdomen/Pelvis is Associated with Decreased CT Utilization in Low-Risk Emergency Department Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa H. Merck

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The increasing rate of patient exposure to radiation from computerized tomography (CT raises questions about appropriateness of utilization. There is no current standard to employ informed consent for CT (ICCT. Our study assessed the relationship between informed consent and CT utilization in emergency department (ED patients. Methods: An observational multiphase before-after cohort study was completed from 4/2010-5/2011. We assessed CT utilization before and after (Time I/ Time II the implementation of an informed consent protocol. Adult patients were included if they presented with symptoms of abdominal/pelvic pathology or completed ED CT. We excluded patients with pregnancy, trauma, or altered mental status. Data on history, exam, diagnostics, and disposition were collected via standard abstraction tool. We generated a multivariate logistic model via stepwise regression, to assess CT utilization across risk groups. Logistic models, stratified by risk, were generated to include study phase and a propensity score that controlled for potential confounders of CT utilization. Results: 7,684 patients met inclusion criteria. In PHASE 2, there was a 24% (95% CI [10-36%] reduction in CT utilization in the low-risk patient group (p<0.002. ICCT did not affect CT utilization in the high-risk group (p=0.16. In low-risk patients, the propensity score was significant (p<0.001. There were no adverse events reported during the study period. Conclusion: The implementation of ICCT was associated with reduced CT utilization in low-risk ED patients. ICCT has the potential to increase informed, shared decision making with patients, as well as to reduce the risks and cost associated with CT.

  13. Disclosure of weather risks of European Utilities : Assessment of the current situation of listed utilities domiciled in Germany, France, Austria, United Kingdom and Switzerland

    OpenAIRE

    Leibfried, Peter; Schuchter, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    With regards to the scientific fact about climate change, weather risk is of increased importance to companies in weather dependent industries. Increasing volatility in temperatures and precipitation as well as unseasonal weather result in increased financial risk to weather dependent companies. This white paper assesses the current situation disclosure of weather dependency and weather risks of European exchange listed companies with the aim to promote transparency in risk reporting to ...

  14. Proximal vs. distal predictors of alcohol use disorders and treatment utilization in at-risk men in early middle age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feingold, Alan; Capaldi, Deborah M; Owen, Lee D

    2015-08-01

    Understanding factors that predict both development and treatment of alcohol misuse and its consequences can inform prevention and treatment efforts. This study used measures of both proximal (e.g., behaviors) and distal (e.g., traits) risk factors that were predicted to relate to both an alcohol use disorder (AUD) and to treatment utilization among AUD-diagnosed men to test the hypothesis that both type of factors predict AUDs but only proximal factors influence treatment-seeking. Analyses of variance with contrasts were used to compare the means for risk factors between men with an AUD and AUD-free men and-given an AUD diagnosis-between men who were treated for an AUD and untreated men (n=181). As predicted, men with AUDs differed on a broad range of proximal and distal factors, including number of alcohol problems, alcohol-related influences of peers and partners, alcohol expectancies, familial factors, and psychopathology. As hypothesized, only proximal risk factors predicted treatment-seeking among the AUD men, particularly alcohol problems and related consequences. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Assessment of improved organ at risk sparing for advanced cervix carcinoma utilizing precision radiotherapy techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Georg, D.; Georg, P.; Hillbrand, M.; Poetter, R.; Mock, U. [Dept. of Radiotherapy, Medical Univ. AKH, Vienna (Austria)

    2008-11-15

    Purpose: to evaluate the potential benefit of proton therapy and photon based intensity-modulated radiotherapy in comparison to 3-D conformal photon radiotherapy (3D-CRT) in locally advanced cervix cancer. Patients and methods: in five patients with advanced cervix cancer 3D-CRT (four-field box) was compared with intensity modulated photon (IMXT) and proton therapy (IMPT) as well as proton beam therapy (PT) based on passive scattering. Planning target volumes (PTVs) included primary tumor and pelvic and para-aortic lymph nodes. Dose-volume histograms (DVHs) were analyzed for the PTV and various organs at risk (OARs) (rectal wall, bladder, small bowel, colon, femoral heads, and kidneys). In addition dose conformity, dose inhomogeneity and overall volumes of 50% isodoses were assessed. Results: all plans were comparable concerning PTV parameters. Large differences between photon and proton techniques were seen in volumes of the 50% isodoses and conformity indices. DVH for colon and small bowel were significantly improved with PT and IMPT compared to IMXT, with D{sub mean} reductions of 50-80%. Doses to kidneys and femoral heads could also be substantially reduced with PT and IMPT. Sparing of rectum and bladder was superior with protons as well but less pronounced. Conclusion: proton beam RT has significant potential to improve treatment related side effects in the bowel compared to photon beam RT in patients with advanced cervix carcinoma. (orig.)

  16. Differences in risk behaviors, care utilization, and comorbidities in homeless persons based on HIV status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, R David; Dykema, Shana

    2014-01-01

    This cross-sectional pilot project measured differences by HIV status in chronic health conditions, primary care and emergency department use, and high-risk behaviors of homeless persons through self-report. Using selective random sampling, 244 individuals were recruited from a homeless shelter. The reported HIV prevalence was 6.56% (n = 16), with the odds of HIV higher in persons reporting crack cocaine use. HIV-infected persons were more likely to report a source of regular medical care and less likely to use the emergency department than uninfected persons. Validation of findings through exploration of HIV and health care access in homeless persons is needed to confirm that HIV-infected homeless persons are more likely to have primary care. Distinctions between primary care and specialty HIV care also need to be explored in this context. If findings are consistent, providers who care for the homeless could learn more effective ways to engage homeless patients. Copyright © 2014 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Assessment of improved organ at risk sparing for advanced cervix carcinoma utilizing precision radiotherapy techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georg, D.; Georg, P.; Hillbrand, M.; Poetter, R.; Mock, U.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: to evaluate the potential benefit of proton therapy and photon based intensity-modulated radiotherapy in comparison to 3-D conformal photon radiotherapy (3D-CRT) in locally advanced cervix cancer. Patients and methods: in five patients with advanced cervix cancer 3D-CRT (four-field box) was compared with intensity modulated photon (IMXT) and proton therapy (IMPT) as well as proton beam therapy (PT) based on passive scattering. Planning target volumes (PTVs) included primary tumor and pelvic and para-aortic lymph nodes. Dose-volume histograms (DVHs) were analyzed for the PTV and various organs at risk (OARs) (rectal wall, bladder, small bowel, colon, femoral heads, and kidneys). In addition dose conformity, dose inhomogeneity and overall volumes of 50% isodoses were assessed. Results: all plans were comparable concerning PTV parameters. Large differences between photon and proton techniques were seen in volumes of the 50% isodoses and conformity indices. DVH for colon and small bowel were significantly improved with PT and IMPT compared to IMXT, with D mean reductions of 50-80%. Doses to kidneys and femoral heads could also be substantially reduced with PT and IMPT. Sparing of rectum and bladder was superior with protons as well but less pronounced. Conclusion: proton beam RT has significant potential to improve treatment related side effects in the bowel compared to photon beam RT in patients with advanced cervix carcinoma. (orig.)

  18. Medicare Utilization for Part A

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This link takes you to the Medicare utilization statistics for Part A (Hospital Insurance HI) which include the Medicare Ranking for all Short-Stay Hospitals by...

  19. Aspects of Microparticle Utilization for Potentiation of Novel Vaccines: Promises and Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilyinskii, P.

    Many recombinant vaccines against novel (HIV, HCV) or ever-changing (influenza) infectious agents require the presence of adjuvants/delivery vehicles to induce strong immune responses. The necessity of their improvement led to the major effort towards development of vaccine delivery systems that are generally particulate (e.g., nano- and microparticles) and have comparable dimensions to the pathogens (viruses or bacteria). The mode of action of these adjuvants is not fully understood but implies the stimulation of the innate or antigen-specific immune responses, and/or the increase of antigen uptake or processing by antigen-presenting cells (APC). Moreover, enhancement of adjuvant activity through the use of micro- and nanoparticulate delivery systems often resulted from the synergistic effects producing immune responses stronger than those elicited by the adjuvant or delivery system alone. Among particulate adjuvants, biodegradable micro- and nanoparticles of poly(D,L-lactide-co-glycoside) (PLGA) or poly(D,L-lactide) (PLA) have been reported to enhance both humoral and cellular immune responses against an encapsulated protein antigen. Cationic and anionic polylactide co-glycolide (PLG) microparticles have been successfully used to adsorb a variety of agents, which include plasmid DNA, recombinant proteins and adjuvant active oligonucleotides and are also currently tested in several vaccine applications. Another approach envisions specific targeting of APC, especially peripheral DC and exploitation of particulate systems that are small enough for lymphatic uptake (polystyrene nanobeads). Micro- and nanoparticles offer the possibility of enhancement of their uptake by appropriate cells through manipulation of their surface properties. Still, questions regarding toxicity and molecular interaction between micro- and nano-particles and immune cells, tissues and whole organisms remain to be addressed. These risks and other possible side effects should be assessed in

  20. Cost-utility of medication withdrawal in older fallers: results from the improving medication prescribing to reduce risk of FALLs (IMPROveFALL) trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Polinder, Suzanne; Boyé, Nicole D. A.; Mattace-Raso, Francesco U. S.; van der Velde, Nathalie; Hartholt, Klaas A.; de Vries, Oscar J.; Lips, Paul; van der Cammen, Tischa J. M.; Patka, Peter; van Beeck, Ed F.; van Lieshout, Esther M. M.; van der Cammen, T. J. M.; Patka, P.; van Beeck, E. F.; van Lieshout, E. M. M.; Polinder, S.; Mattace-Raso, F. U. S.; Hartholt, K. A.; Boyé, N. D. A.; Looman, C. W. N.; Lips, P.; de Vries, O. J.; Kerver, A. J. H.; Bruijninckx, M. M. M.; de Vries, M. R.; Ziere, G.

    2016-01-01

    The use of Fall-Risk-Increasing-Drugs (FRIDs) has been associated with increased risk of falls and associated injuries. This study investigates the effect of withdrawal of FRIDs versus 'care as usual' on health-related quality of life (HRQoL), costs, and cost-utility in community-dwelling older

  1. Cost-utility of medication withdrawal in older fallers: results from the improving medication prescribing to reduce risk of FALLs (IMPROveFALL) trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Polinder (Suzanne); N.D.A. Boyé (Nicole); F.U.S. Mattace Raso (Francesco); N. van der Velde (Nathalie); K.A. Hartholt (Klaas); O.J. de Vries (Oscar); P. Lips (Paul); T.J.M. van der Cammen (Tischa); P. Patka (Peter); E.F. van Beeck (Ed); E.M.M. van Lieshout (Esther)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractBackground: The use of Fall-Risk-Increasing-Drugs (FRIDs) has been associated with increased risk of falls and associated injuries. This study investigates the effect of withdrawal of FRIDs versus 'care as usual' on health-related quality of life (HRQoL), costs, and cost-utility in

  2. Rank Two Affine Manifolds in Genus 3

    OpenAIRE

    Aulicino, David; Nguyen, Duc-Manh

    2016-01-01

    We complete the classification of rank two affine manifolds in the moduli space of translation surfaces in genus three. Combined with a recent result of Mirzakhani and Wright, this completes the classification of higher rank affine manifolds in genus three.

  3. Innovative practice model to optimize resource utilization and improve access to care for high-risk and BRCA+ patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Head, Linden; Nessim, Carolyn; Usher Boyd, Kirsty

    2017-02-01

    Bilateral prophylactic mastectomy (BPM) has demonstrated breast cancer risk reduction in high-risk/ BRCA + patients. However, priority of active cancers coupled with inefficient use of operating room (OR) resources presents challenges in offering BPM in a timely manner. To address these challenges, a rapid access prophylactic mastectomy and immediate reconstruction (RAPMIR) program was innovated. The purpose of this study was to evaluate RAPMIR with regards to access to care and efficiency. We retrospectively reviewed the cases of all high-risk/ BRCA + patients having had BPM between September 2012 and August 2014. Patients were divided into 2 groups: those managed through the traditional model and those managed through the RAPMIR model. RAPMIR leverages 2 concurrently running ORs with surgical oncology and plastic surgery moving between rooms to complete 3 combined BPMs with immediate reconstruction in addition to 1-2 independent cases each operative day. RAPMIR eligibility criteria included high-risk/ BRCA + status; BPM with immediate, implant-based reconstruction; and day surgery candidacy. Wait times, case volumes and patient throughput were measured and compared. There were 16 traditional patients and 13 RAPMIR patients. Mean wait time (days from referral to surgery) for RAPMIR was significantly shorter than for the traditional model (165.4 v. 309.2 d, p = 0.027). Daily patient throughput (4.3 v. 2.8), plastic surgery case volume (3.7 v. 1.6) and surgical oncology case volume (3.0 v. 2.2) were significantly greater in the RAPMIR model than the traditional model ( p = 0.003, p < 0.001 and p = 0.015, respectively). A multidisciplinary model with optimized scheduling has the potential to improve access to care and optimize resource utilization.

  4. Learning of Rule Ensembles for Multiple Attribute Ranking Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dembczyński, Krzysztof; Kotłowski, Wojciech; Słowiński, Roman; Szeląg, Marcin

    In this paper, we consider the multiple attribute ranking problem from a Machine Learning perspective. We propose two approaches to statistical learning of an ensemble of decision rules from decision examples provided by the Decision Maker in terms of pairwise comparisons of some objects. The first approach consists in learning a preference function defining a binary preference relation for a pair of objects. The result of application of this function on all pairs of objects to be ranked is then exploited using the Net Flow Score procedure, giving a linear ranking of objects. The second approach consists in learning a utility function for single objects. The utility function also gives a linear ranking of objects. In both approaches, the learning is based on the boosting technique. The presented approaches to Preference Learning share good properties of the decision rule preference model and have good performance in the massive-data learning problems. As Preference Learning and Multiple Attribute Decision Aiding share many concepts and methodological issues, in the introduction, we review some aspects bridging these two fields. To illustrate the two approaches proposed in this paper, we solve with them a toy example concerning the ranking of a set of cars evaluated by multiple attributes. Then, we perform a large data experiment on real data sets. The first data set concerns credit rating. Since recent research in the field of Preference Learning is motivated by the increasing role of modeling preferences in recommender systems and information retrieval, we chose two other massive data sets from this area - one comes from movie recommender system MovieLens, and the other concerns ranking of text documents from 20 Newsgroups data set.

  5. Application of third order stochastic dominance algorithm in investments ranking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lončar Sanja

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the use of third order stochastic dominance in ranking Investment alternatives, using TSD algorithms (Levy, 2006for testing third order stochastic dominance. The main goal of using TSD rule is minimization of efficient investment set for investor with risk aversion, who prefers more money and likes positive skew ness.

  6. The Privilege of Ranking: Google Plays Ball.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiggins, Richard

    2003-01-01

    Discussion of ranking systems used in various settings, including college football and academic admissions, focuses on the Google search engine. Explains the PageRank mathematical formula that scores Web pages by connecting the number of links; limitations, including authenticity and accuracy of ranked Web pages; relevancy; adjusting algorithms;…

  7. A Comprehensive Analysis of Marketing Journal Rankings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steward, Michelle D.; Lewis, Bruce R.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to offer a comprehensive assessment of journal standings in Marketing from two perspectives. The discipline perspective of rankings is obtained from a collection of published journal ranking studies during the past 15 years. The studies in the published ranking stream are assessed for reliability by examining internal…

  8. A scoring mechanism for the rank aggregation of network robustness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yazdani, Alireza; Dueñas-Osorio, Leonardo; Li, Qilin

    2013-10-01

    To date, a number of metrics have been proposed to quantify inherent robustness of network topology against failures. However, each single metric usually only offers a limited view of network vulnerability to different types of random failures and targeted attacks. When applied to certain network configurations, different metrics rank network topology robustness in different orders which is rather inconsistent, and no single metric fully characterizes network robustness against different modes of failure. To overcome such inconsistency, this work proposes a multi-metric approach as the basis of evaluating aggregate ranking of network topology robustness. This is based on simultaneous utilization of a minimal set of distinct robustness metrics that are standardized so to give way to a direct comparison of vulnerability across networks with different sizes and configurations, hence leading to an initial scoring of inherent topology robustness. Subsequently, based on the inputs of initial scoring a rank aggregation method is employed to allocate an overall ranking of robustness to each network topology. A discussion is presented in support of the presented multi-metric approach and its applications to more realistically assess and rank network topology robustness.

  9. Baseline HbA1c to Identify High-Risk Gestational Diabetes: Utility in Early vs Standard Gestational Diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweeting, Arianne N; Ross, Glynis P; Hyett, Jon; Molyneaux, Lynda; Tan, Kris; Constantino, Maria; Harding, Anna Jane; Wong, Jencia

    2017-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) necessitates risk stratification directing limited antenatal resources to those at greatest risk. Recent evidence demonstrates that an early pregnancy glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c ≥5.9% (41 mmol/mol) predicts adverse pregnancy outcomes. To determine the optimal HbA1c threshold for adverse pregnancy outcomes in GDM in a treated multiethnic cohort and whether this differs in women diagnosed HbA1c (single-laboratory) measurement at the time of GDM diagnosis. Maternal clinical and pregnancy outcome data were collected prospectively. The association between baseline HbA1c and adverse pregnancy outcomes in early vs standard GDM. HbA1c was measured at a median of 17.6 ± 3.3 weeks' gestation in early GDM (n = 844) and 29.4 ± 2.6 weeks' gestation in standard GDM (n = 2254). In standard GDM, HbA1c >5.9% (41 mmol/mol) was associated with the greatest risk of large-for-gestational-age (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] = 2.7 [1.5-4.9]), macrosomia (3.5 [1.4-8.6]), cesarean section (3.6 [2.1-6.2]), and hypertensive disorders (2.6 [1.1-5.8]). In early GDM, similar HbA1c associations were seen; however, lower HbA1c correlated with the greatest risk of small-for-gestational-age (P trend = 0.004) and prevalence of neonatal hypoglycemia. Baseline HbA1c >5.9% (41 mmol/mol) identifies an increased risk of large-for-gestational-age, macrosomia, cesarean section, and hypertensive disorders in standard GDM. Although similar associations are seen in early GDM, higher HbA1c levels do not adequately capture risk-limiting utility as a triage tool in this cohort. Copyright © 2017 by the Endocrine Society

  10. Asynchronous Gossip for Averaging and Spectral Ranking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borkar, Vivek S.; Makhijani, Rahul; Sundaresan, Rajesh

    2014-08-01

    We consider two variants of the classical gossip algorithm. The first variant is a version of asynchronous stochastic approximation. We highlight a fundamental difficulty associated with the classical asynchronous gossip scheme, viz., that it may not converge to a desired average, and suggest an alternative scheme based on reinforcement learning that has guaranteed convergence to the desired average. We then discuss a potential application to a wireless network setting with simultaneous link activation constraints. The second variant is a gossip algorithm for distributed computation of the Perron-Frobenius eigenvector of a nonnegative matrix. While the first variant draws upon a reinforcement learning algorithm for an average cost controlled Markov decision problem, the second variant draws upon a reinforcement learning algorithm for risk-sensitive control. We then discuss potential applications of the second variant to ranking schemes, reputation networks, and principal component analysis.

  11. Cardiovascular events and hospital resource utilization pre- and post-transcatheter mitral valve repair in high-surgical risk patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vemulapalli, Sreekanth; Lippmann, Steven J; Krucoff, Mitchell; Hernandez, Adrian F; Curtis, Lesley H; Foster, Elyse; Qasim, Atif; Wang, Andrew; Glower, Donald D; Feldman, Ted; Hammill, Bradley G

    2017-07-01

    MitraClip is an approved therapy for mitral regurgitation (MR); however, health care resource utilization pre- and post-MitraClip remains understudied. Patients with functional and degenerative MR at high surgical risk in the EVEREST II High-Risk Registry and REALISM Continued-Access Study were linked to Medicare data. Pre- and post-MitraClip all-cause death, stroke, myocardial infarction, heart failure (HF), and bleeding hospitalizations were identified. Inpatient costs, adjusted to 2010 US dollars, were calculated, and event rate ratios and cost ratios were estimated with multivariable modeling. Among 403 linked patients, the mean age was 80 years, 60% were male, mean baseline left ventricular ejection fraction was 49.6%, 83.3% were New York Heart Association class III/IV, 78.2% were MR grade 3+/4+, and 63.3% had functional MR. All-cause hospitalization decreased from 1,854 to 1,435/1,000 person-years (Pproviders seeking to reduce HF hospitalizations and associated Medicare costs may consider MitraClip among appropriate patients likely to survive 1 year. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Using Power-Law Degree Distribution to Accelerate PageRank

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhaoyan Jin

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The PageRank vector of a network is very important, for it can reflect the importance of a Web page in the World Wide Web, or of a people in a social network. However, with the growth of the World Wide Web and social networks, it needs more and more time to compute the PageRank vector of a network. In many real-world applications, the degree and PageRank distributions of these complex networks conform to the Power-Law distribution. This paper utilizes the degree distribution of a network to initialize its PageRank vector, and presents a Power-Law degree distribution accelerating algorithm of PageRank computation. Experiments on four real-world datasets show that the proposed algorithm converges more quickly than the original PageRank algorithm.

  13. Low-rank coal research. Quarterly report, January--March 1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-08-01

    This document contains several quarterly progress reports for low-rank coal research that was performed from January-March 1990. Reports in Control Technology and Coal Preparation Research are in Flue Gas Cleanup, Waste Management, and Regional Energy Policy Program for the Northern Great Plains. Reports in Advanced Research and Technology Development are presented in Turbine Combustion Phenomena, Combustion Inorganic Transformation (two sections), Liquefaction Reactivity of Low-Rank Coals, Gasification Ash and Slag Characterization, and Coal Science. Reports in Combustion Research cover Fluidized-Bed Combustion, Beneficiation of Low-Rank Coals, Combustion Characterization of Low-Rank Coal Fuels, Diesel Utilization of Low-Rank Coals, and Produce and Characterize HWD (hot-water drying) Fuels for Heat Engine Applications. Liquefaction Research is reported in Low-Rank Coal Direct Liquefaction. Gasification Research progress is discussed for Production of Hydrogen and By-Products from Coal and for Chemistry of Sulfur Removal in Mild Gas.

  14. Metformin, other antidiabetic drugs, and endometrial cancer risk: a nested case-control study within Italian healthcare utilization databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franchi, Matteo; Asciutto, Rosario; Nicotra, Federica; Merlino, Luca; La Vecchia, Carlo; Corrao, Giovanni; Bosetti, Cristina

    2017-05-01

    Metformin may reduce the risk of endometrial cancer whereas other drugs for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus appear to increase it, although the evidence is still limited. We investigated this issue using data from a nested case-control study within the healthcare utilization databases of the Lombardy Region, Italy. This study included 376 diabetic women with endometrial cancer and 7485 diabetic controls matched for cases on age, date at cohort entry, and duration of follow-up. We used conditional logistic regression models to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of endometrial cancer in relation to use of antidiabetic drugs, adjusted for the Charlson's comorbidity index, selected medical conditions, prescription of selected drugs, and concomitant use of other antidiabetic drugs. At cohort entry, no significant associations were observed for metformin [OR=0.99, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80-1.23], sulfonylureas (OR=1.14, 95% CI 0.91-1.42), insulin (OR=0.72, 95% CI 0.34-1.56), and other antidiabetic drugs (OR=1.21, 95% CI 0.75-1.95). When we considered use during follow-up, a borderline significant excess risk was found for metformin (OR=1.30, 95% CI 1.00-1.70). However, this estimate decreased to 1.07 (95% CI 0.82-1.41) when taking into account BMI using a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis. No significant associations were found for sulfonylureas (OR=1.16, 95% CI 0.91-1.47), thiazolidinediones (OR=0.77, 95% CI 0.48-1.24), repaglinide (OR=1.32, 95% CI 0.94-1.87), incretins (OR=1.21, 95% CI 0.63-2.32), and insulin (OR=1.19, 95% CI 0.82-1.71). Our data indicate that metformin, insulin, and other antidiabetic drugs did not meaningfully affect the risk of endometrial cancer.

  15. Creating New Incentives for Risk Identification and Insurance Process for the Electric Utility Industry (initial award through Award Modification 2); Energy & Risk Transfer Assessment (Award Modifications 3 - 6)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michael Ebert

    2008-02-28

    This is the final report for the DOE-NETL grant entitled 'Creating New Incentives for Risk Identification & Insurance Processes for the Electric Utility Industry' and later, 'Energy & Risk Transfer Assessment'. It reflects work done on projects from 15 August 2004 to 29 February 2008. Projects were on a variety of topics, including commercial insurance for electrical utilities, the Electrical Reliability Organization, cost recovery by Gulf State electrical utilities after major hurricanes, and review of state energy emergency plans. This Final Technical Report documents and summarizes all work performed during the award period, which in this case is from 15 August 2004 (date of notification of original award) through 29 February 2008. This report presents this information in a comprehensive, integrated fashion that clearly shows a logical and synergistic research trajectory, and is augmented with findings and conclusions drawn from the research as a whole. Four major research projects were undertaken and completed during the 42 month period of activities conducted and funded by the award; these are: (1) Creating New Incentives for Risk Identification and Insurance Process for the Electric Utility Industry (also referred to as the 'commercial insurance' research). Three major deliverables were produced: a pre-conference white paper, a two-day facilitated stakeholders workshop conducted at George Mason University, and a post-workshop report with findings and recommendations. All deliverables from this work are published on the CIP website at http://cipp.gmu.edu/projects/DoE-NETL-2005.php. (2) The New Electric Reliability Organization (ERO): an examination of critical issues associated with governance, standards development and implementation, and jurisdiction (also referred to as the 'ERO study'). Four major deliverables were produced: a series of preliminary memoranda for the staff of the Office of Electricity Delivery and

  16. Two-dimensional ranking of Wikipedia articles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhirov, A. O.; Zhirov, O. V.; Shepelyansky, D. L.

    2010-10-01

    The Library of Babel, described by Jorge Luis Borges, stores an enormous amount of information. The Library exists ab aeterno. Wikipedia, a free online encyclopaedia, becomes a modern analogue of such a Library. Information retrieval and ranking of Wikipedia articles become the challenge of modern society. While PageRank highlights very well known nodes with many ingoing links, CheiRank highlights very communicative nodes with many outgoing links. In this way the ranking becomes two-dimensional. Using CheiRank and PageRank we analyze the properties of two-dimensional ranking of all Wikipedia English articles and show that it gives their reliable classification with rich and nontrivial features. Detailed studies are done for countries, universities, personalities, physicists, chess players, Dow-Jones companies and other categories.

  17. 24 CFR 599.401 - Ranking of applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Ranking of applications. 599.401... Communities § 599.401 Ranking of applications. (a) Ranking order. Rural and urban applications will be ranked... applications ranked first. (b) Separate ranking categories. After initial ranking, both rural and urban...

  18. Does resident ranking during recruitment accurately predict subsequent performance as a surgical resident?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fryer, Jonathan P; Corcoran, Noreen; George, Brian; Wang, Ed; Darosa, Debra

    2012-01-01

    While the primary goal of ranking applicants for surgical residency training positions is to identify the candidates who will subsequently perform best as surgical residents, the effectiveness of the ranking process has not been adequately studied. We evaluated our general surgery resident recruitment process between 2001 and 2011 inclusive, to determine if our recruitment ranking parameters effectively predicted subsequent resident performance. We identified 3 candidate ranking parameters (United States Medical Licensing Examination [USMLE] Step 1 score, unadjusted ranking score [URS], and final adjusted ranking [FAR]), and 4 resident performance parameters (American Board of Surgery In-Training Examination [ABSITE] score, PGY1 resident evaluation grade [REG], overall REG, and independent faculty rating ranking [IFRR]), and assessed whether the former were predictive of the latter. Analyses utilized Spearman correlation coefficient. We found that the URS, which is based on objective and criterion based parameters, was a better predictor of subsequent performance than the FAR, which is a modification of the URS based on subsequent determinations of the resident selection committee. USMLE score was a reliable predictor of ABSITE scores only. However, when we compared our worst residence performances with the performances of the other residents in this evaluation, the data did not produce convincing evidence that poor resident performances could be reliably predicted by any of the recruitment ranking parameters. Finally, stratifying candidates based on their rank range did not effectively define a ranking cut-off beyond which resident performance would drop off. Based on these findings, we recommend surgery programs may be better served by utilizing a more structured resident ranking process and that subsequent adjustments to the rank list generated by this process should be undertaken with caution. Copyright © 2012 Association of Program Directors in Surgery

  19. Agro-tourism and ranking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cioca, L. I.; Giurea, R.; Precazzini, I.; Ragazzi, M.; Achim, M. I.; Schiavon, M.; Rada, E. C.

    2018-05-01

    Nowadays the global tourism growth has caused a significant interest in research focused on the impact of the tourism on environment and community. The purpose of this study is to introduce a new ranking for the classification of tourist accommodation establishments with the functions of agro-tourism boarding house type by examining the sector of agro-tourism based on a research aimed to improve the economic, socio-cultural and environmental performance of agrotourism structures. This paper links the criteria for the classification of agro-tourism boarding houses (ABHs) to the impact of agro-tourism activities on the environment, enhancing an eco-friendly approach on agro-tourism activities by increasing the quality reputation of the agro-tourism products and services. Taking into account the impact on the environment, agrotourism can play an important role by protecting and conserving it.

  20. Hazard-ranking of agricultural pesticides for chronic health effects in Yuma County, Arizona.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugeng, Anastasia J; Beamer, Paloma I; Lutz, Eric A; Rosales, Cecilia B

    2013-10-01

    With thousands of pesticides registered by the United States Environmental Protection Agency, it not feasible to sample for all pesticides applied in agricultural communities. Hazard-ranking pesticides based on use, toxicity, and exposure potential can help prioritize community-specific pesticide hazards. This study applied hazard-ranking schemes for cancer, endocrine disruption, and reproductive/developmental toxicity in Yuma County, Arizona. An existing cancer hazard-ranking scheme was modified, and novel schemes for endocrine disruption and reproductive/developmental toxicity were developed to rank pesticide hazards. The hazard-ranking schemes accounted for pesticide use, toxicity, and exposure potential based on chemical properties of each pesticide. Pesticides were ranked as hazards with respect to each health effect, as well as overall chronic health effects. The highest hazard-ranked pesticides for overall chronic health effects were maneb, metam-sodium, trifluralin, pronamide, and bifenthrin. The relative pesticide rankings were unique for each health effect. The highest hazard-ranked pesticides differed from those most heavily applied, as well as from those previously detected in Yuma homes over a decade ago. The most hazardous pesticides for cancer in Yuma County, Arizona were also different from a previous hazard-ranking applied in California. Hazard-ranking schemes that take into account pesticide use, toxicity, and exposure potential can help prioritize pesticides of greatest health risk in agricultural communities. This study is the first to provide pesticide hazard-rankings for endocrine disruption and reproductive/developmental toxicity based on use, toxicity, and exposure potential. These hazard-ranking schemes can be applied to other agricultural communities for prioritizing community-specific pesticide hazards to target decreasing health risk. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Hazard-Ranking of Agricultural Pesticides for Chronic Health Effects in Yuma County, Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugeng, Anastasia J.; Beamer, Paloma I.; Lutz, Eric A.; Rosales, Cecilia B.

    2013-01-01

    With thousands of pesticides registered by the United States Environmental Protection Agency, it not feasible to sample for all pesticides applied in agricultural communities. Hazard-ranking pesticides based on use, toxicity, and exposure potential can help prioritize community-specific pesticide hazards. This study applied hazard-ranking schemes for cancer, endocrine disruption, and reproductive/developmental toxicity in Yuma County, Arizona. An existing cancer hazard-ranking scheme was modified, and novel schemes for endocrine disruption and reproductive/developmental toxicity were developed to rank pesticide hazards. The hazard-ranking schemes accounted for pesticide use, toxicity, and exposure potential based on chemical properties of each pesticide. Pesticides were ranked as hazards with respect to each health effect, as well as overall chronic health effects. The highest hazard-ranked pesticides for overall chronic health effects were maneb, metam sodium, trifluralin, pronamide, and bifenthrin. The relative pesticide rankings were unique for each health effect. The highest hazard-ranked pesticides differed from those most heavily applied, as well as from those previously detected in Yuma homes over a decade ago. The most hazardous pesticides for cancer in Yuma County, Arizona were also different from a previous hazard-ranking applied in California. Hazard-ranking schemes that take into account pesticide use, toxicity, and exposure potential can help prioritize pesticides of greatest health risk in agricultural communities. This study is the first to provide pesticide hazard-rankings for endocrine disruption and reproductive/developmental toxicity based on use, toxicity, and exposure potential. These hazard-ranking schemes can be applied to other agricultural communities for prioritizing community-specific pesticide hazards to target decreasing health risk. PMID:23783270

  2. Underreporting of nursing home utilization on the CMS-2728 in older incident dialysis patients and implications for assessing mortality risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowling, C Barrett; Zhang, Rebecca; Franch, Harold; Huang, Yijian; Mirk, Anna; McClellan, William M; Johnson, Theodore M; Kutner, Nancy G

    2015-03-21

    The usage of nursing home (NH) services is a marker of frailty among older adults. Although the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) revised the Medical Evidence Report Form CMS-2728 in 2005 to include data collection on NH institutionalization, the validity of this item has not been reported. There were 27,913 patients ≥ 75 years of age with incident end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in 2006, which constituted our analysis cohort. We determined the accuracy of the CMS-2728 using a matched cohort that included the CMS Minimum Data Set (MDS) 2.0, often employed as a "gold standard" metric for identifying patients receiving NH care. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) for the CMS-2728 NH item. Next, we compared characteristics and mortality risk by CMS-2728 and MDS NH status agreement. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of the CMS-2728 for NH status were 33%, 97%, 80% and 79%, respectively. Compared to those without the MDS or CMS-2728 NH indicator (No MDS/No 2728), multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for mortality associated with NH status were 1.55 (1.46 - 1.64) for MDS/2728, 1.48 (1.42 - 1.54) for MDS/No 2728, and 1.38 (1.25 - 1.52) for No MDS/2728. NH utilization was more strongly associated with mortality than other CMS-2728 items in the model. The CMS-2728 underestimated NH utilization among older adults with incident ESRD. The potential for misclassification may have important ramifications for assessing prognosis, developing advanced care plans and providing coordinated care.

  3. Indicadores de riesgo de morbilidad prevenible causada por medicamentos Risk indicators of preventable morbidity related to drug utilization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Dago Martínez

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available Objetivos: Seleccionar y estudiar la aceptabilidad, en términos de relevancia y pertinencia, de ciertas situaciones clínicas que puedan usarse como indicadores de riesgo de morbilidad prevenible causada por medicamentos y que sean utilizables en las farmacias comunitarias. Método: Método Delphi, en 2 rondas, con un panel de 14 expertos médicos y farmacéuticos que valoraron la relevancia y pertinencia de 68 tipos de situaciones clínicas como indicadores de morbilidad potencial relacionada con medicamentos, detectable por el profesional en su medio, con evidencia científica de resultado adverso previsible, frecuentes en el medio ambulatorio y con causa y resultado controlables. Resultados: Se consideraron utilizables y pertinentes 43 de los 68 indicadores estudiados, que se referían a 3 ámbitos: tipo de medicamento (medicamentos de estrecho margen terapéutico, con dosis individualizada y con reacciones adversas frecuentes y graves, problema de salud (problemas crónicos, especialmente asma, enfermedad cardíaca, tiroidea, prostática y dolor y tipo de paciente (ancianos y/o polimedicados. Los farmacéuticos sobrevaloraron sistemáticamente ciertos indicadores en relación con los médicos, aunque las diferencias no fueron significativas. Conclusiones: Se identificaron 43 indicadores de morbilidad potencial relacionada con los medicamentos e identificables por los profesionales en su entorno.Objective: To select clinical situations that can be used as risk indicators of preventable morbidity caused by drugs at the community pharmacies, and to study their acceptability, in terms of pertinence and relevance. Methods: We used the Delphi technique, in 2 rounds, by a panel of 14 medical doctors and pharmacists experts, to study the relevance of 68 types of clinical situations as risk indicators of preventable morbidity related to drug utilization used by health professionals in community pharmacies, with scientific evidence of foreseeable

  4. Application of National Emergency X-Ray Utilizations Study low-risk c-spine criteria in high-risk geriatric falls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Daniel; Vera, Luis; Jeanmonod, Donald; Pester, Jonathan; Jeanmonod, Rebecca

    2015-09-01

    We sought to validate National Emergency X-Radiography Utilizations Study low-risk cervical spine (C spine) criteria in a geriatric trauma population. We sought to determine whether patients' own baseline mental status (MS) could substitute for Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) to meet the criteria "normal alertness." We further sought to refine the definition of "distracting injury." This is a retrospective review of geriatric fall patients presenting to a level 1 trauma center and triaged to the trauma bay. We queried our database from 2008 to 2013. Abstractors recorded GCS, deviation from baseline MS, midline neck tenderness, intoxication, focal deficit, signs of trauma, and presence of other injury. Patients were considered at baseline MS if specific documentation was present on the chart, or if their GCS was 15. Six hundred sixty elderly fall patients were trauma alerts during the study period. Seventeen were excluded for incomplete records/death before imaging, leaving 647. The median age was 81 (interquartile range, 74-87). Fifty patients (8.0%) had C spine or cord injury. Two hundred ninety-four (44.5%) had baseline MS (including GCS 13-15), no spine tenderness, no intoxication, and no focal neurologic deficit. Of these, 18 had C-spine injury. Using physical findings of head trauma as the only "distracting injury," no injury would have been missed (sensitivity, 100% [confidence interval, 91.1-100]; specificity, 14.2%). Our study suggests that National Emergency X-Radiography Utilizations Study can be safely applied in elderly fall patients who are at their personal baseline MS. Furthermore, our data support a more narrow definition of distracting injury to include only patients with signs of trauma to the head. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Risk Factors, Health Care Resource Utilization, and Costs Associated with Nonadherence to Antiretrovirals in Medicaid-Insured Patients with HIV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Keith; Lafeuille, Marie-Hélène; Jiao, Xiaolong; Romdhani, Hela; Emond, Bruno; Woodruff, Kimberly; Pesa, Jacqueline; Tandon, Neeta; Lefebvre, Patrick

    2018-06-07

    Adherence to antiretrovirals (ARVs) is critical to achieving durable virologic suppression. To investigate risk factors of poor adherence and the effect of suboptimal adherence on health care resource utilization (HCRU) and costs in Medicaid patients. A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted using Medicaid data. Adults (aged ≥ 18 years) with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 initiating selected ARVs (index date) were identified. Adherence was measured using medication possession ratio (MPR) and proportion of days covered (PDC) at 6 and 12 months post-index. Risk factors of poor adherence (PDC logistic regression. HCRU and costs were compared between suboptimal (80% ≤ PDC costs (mean monthly cost difference = $339; 95% CI = $153-$536; P costs (mean monthly cost difference = $259; 95% CI = $122-$418; P costs. Age, insurance type and coverage, previous ARV treatment, and HIV symptoms were predictors of adherence. Treatment options that enhance adherence and prevent developing virologic failure with drug resistance should be considered for HIV patients. This study was supported by Janssen Scientific Affairs, which was involved in the study design, data collection, data analysis, manuscript preparation, and publication decisions. Emond, Lafeuille, Romdhani, and Lefebvre are employees of Analysis Group, a consulting company that received research grants from Janssen Scientific Affairs to conduct this study. Dunn, Woodruff, Pesa, and Tandon are current employees and stockholders of Johnson & Johnson, owner of Janssen Scientific Affairs. Jiao was an employee of Janssen at the time of the study. Emond has received grants from Novartis, Regeneron, Aegerion, Lundbeck, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Bayer, Millennium, Allergan, AbbVie, and GlaxoSmithKline unrelated to this study. Part of the material in this study was presented at the Academy of Managed Care Pharmacy 2017 Annual Meeting, March 27-30, 2017, in Denver, Colorado, and at the 9th International AIDS Society

  6. Feasibility and utility of mapping disease risk at the neighbourhood level within a Canadian public health unit: an ecological study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanigaratne Susitha

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We conducted spatial analyses to determine the geographic variation of cancer at the neighbourhood level (dissemination areas or DAs within the area of a single Ontario public health unit, Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph, covering a population of 238,326 inhabitants. Cancer incidence data between 1999 and 2003 were obtained from the Ontario Cancer Registry and were geocoded down to the level of DA using the enhanced Postal Code Conversion File. The 2001 Census of Canada provided information on the size and age-sex structure of the population at the DA level, in addition to information about selected census covariates, such as average neighbourhood income. Results Age standardized incidence ratios for cancer and the prevalence of census covariates were calculated for each of 331 dissemination areas in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph. The standardized incidence ratios (SIR for cancer varied dramatically across the dissemination areas. However, application of the Moran's I statistic, a popular index of spatial autocorrelation, suggested significant spatial patterns for only two cancers, lung and prostate, both in males (p Conclusion This paper demonstrates the feasibility and utility of a systematic approach to identifying neighbourhoods, within the area served by a public health unit, that have significantly higher risks of cancer. This exploratory, ecologic study suggests several hypotheses for these spatial patterns that warrant further investigations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first Canadian study published in the peer-reviewed literature estimating the risk of relatively rare public health outcomes at a very small areal level, namely dissemination areas.

  7. Decision support for mitigating the risk of tree induced transmission line failure in utility rights-of-way.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulos, H M; Camp, A E

    2010-02-01

    Vegetation management is a critical component of rights-of-way (ROW) maintenance for preventing electrical outages and safety hazards resulting from tree contact with conductors during storms. Northeast Utility's (NU) transmission lines are a critical element of the nation's power grid; NU is therefore under scrutiny from federal agencies charged with protecting the electrical transmission infrastructure of the United States. We developed a decision support system to focus right-of-way maintenance and minimize the potential for a tree fall episode that disables transmission capacity across the state of Connecticut. We used field data on tree characteristics to develop a system for identifying hazard trees (HTs) in the field using limited equipment to manage Connecticut power line ROW. Results from this study indicated that the tree height-to-diameter ratio, total tree height, and live crown ratio were the key characteristics that differentiated potential risk trees (danger trees) from trees with a high probability of tree fall (HTs). Products from this research can be transferred to adaptive right-of-way management, and the methods we used have great potential for future application to other regions of the United States and elsewhere where tree failure can disrupt electrical power.

  8. Error analysis of stochastic gradient descent ranking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hong; Tang, Yi; Li, Luoqing; Yuan, Yuan; Li, Xuelong; Tang, Yuanyan

    2013-06-01

    Ranking is always an important task in machine learning and information retrieval, e.g., collaborative filtering, recommender systems, drug discovery, etc. A kernel-based stochastic gradient descent algorithm with the least squares loss is proposed for ranking in this paper. The implementation of this algorithm is simple, and an expression of the solution is derived via a sampling operator and an integral operator. An explicit convergence rate for leaning a ranking function is given in terms of the suitable choices of the step size and the regularization parameter. The analysis technique used here is capacity independent and is novel in error analysis of ranking learning. Experimental results on real-world data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in ranking tasks, which verifies the theoretical analysis in ranking error.

  9. Multi-attribute utility theory. Toward a more general framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beaudoin, F.; Munier, B.; Serquin, Y.; Ecole Normale Superieure, 94 - Cachan

    1997-12-01

    Optimizing maintenance programs for nuclear power plants is a difficult task. Beyond the reliability of the systems at hand, one has to consider several conflicting objectives such as safety, availability, maintenance costs, personal exposure to radiations, all under risk. Multi-Attributed Utility Theory is a widely used framework to cope with such problems. This procedure is, however, based on a set of axioms which imply an expected utility treatment of risk. It has been shown elsewhere that the risk structure to be considered in such cases does not correspond to behavior consistent with such a treatment of risk, but would rather correspond to a rank dependent evaluation type of model. The question raised is then how to use a multi-attributed scheme of preferences under such conditions. (author)

  10. Citation graph based ranking in Invenio

    CERN Document Server

    Marian, Ludmila; Rajman, Martin; Vesely, Martin

    2010-01-01

    Invenio is the web-based integrated digital library system developed at CERN. Within this framework, we present four types of ranking models based on the citation graph that complement the simple approach based on citation counts: time-dependent citation counts, a relevancy ranking which extends the PageRank model, a time-dependent ranking which combines the freshness of citations with PageRank and a ranking that takes into consideration the external citations. We present our analysis and results obtained on two main data sets: Inspire and CERN Document Server. Our main contributions are: (i) a study of the currently available ranking methods based on the citation graph; (ii) the development of new ranking methods that correct some of the identified limitations of the current methods such as treating all citations of equal importance, not taking time into account or considering the citation graph complete; (iii) a detailed study of the key parameters for these ranking methods. (The original publication is ava...

  11. Communities in Large Networks: Identification and Ranking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Martin

    2008-01-01

    We study the problem of identifying and ranking the members of a community in a very large network with link analysis only, given a set of representatives of the community. We define the concept of a community justified by a formal analysis of a simple model of the evolution of a directed graph. ...... and its immediate surroundings. The members are ranked with a “local” variant of the PageRank algorithm. Results are reported from successful experiments on identifying and ranking Danish Computer Science sites and Danish Chess pages using only a few representatives....

  12. Ranking Entities in Networks via Lefschetz Duality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabrandt, Andreas; Hansen, Vagn Lundsgaard; Poulsen, Bjarne

    2014-01-01

    then be ranked according to how essential their positions are in the network by considering the effect of their respective absences. Defining a ranking of a network which takes the individual position of each entity into account has the purpose of assigning different roles to the entities, e.g. agents......, in the network. In this paper it is shown that the topology of a given network induces a ranking of the entities in the network. Further, it is demonstrated how to calculate this ranking and thus how to identify weak sub-networks in any given network....

  13. A Ranking Approach on Large-Scale Graph With Multidimensional Heterogeneous Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Wei; Gao, Bin; Liu, Tie-Yan; Wang, Taifeng; Li, Guohui; Li, Hang

    2016-04-01

    Graph-based ranking has been extensively studied and frequently applied in many applications, such as webpage ranking. It aims at mining potentially valuable information from the raw graph-structured data. Recently, with the proliferation of rich heterogeneous information (e.g., node/edge features and prior knowledge) available in many real-world graphs, how to effectively and efficiently leverage all information to improve the ranking performance becomes a new challenging problem. Previous methods only utilize part of such information and attempt to rank graph nodes according to link-based methods, of which the ranking performances are severely affected by several well-known issues, e.g., over-fitting or high computational complexity, especially when the scale of graph is very large. In this paper, we address the large-scale graph-based ranking problem and focus on how to effectively exploit rich heterogeneous information of the graph to improve the ranking performance. Specifically, we propose an innovative and effective semi-supervised PageRank (SSP) approach to parameterize the derived information within a unified semi-supervised learning framework (SSLF-GR), then simultaneously optimize the parameters and the ranking scores of graph nodes. Experiments on the real-world large-scale graphs demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms the algorithms that consider such graph information only partially.

  14. LANL environmental restoration site ranking system: System description. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Merkhofer, L.; Kann, A.; Voth, M. [Applied Decision Analysis, Inc., Menlo Park, CA (United States)

    1992-10-13

    The basic structure of the LANL Environmental Restoration (ER) Site Ranking System and its use are described in this document. A related document, Instructions for Generating Inputs for the LANL ER Site Ranking System, contains detailed descriptions of the methods by which necessary inputs for the system will be generated. LANL has long recognized the need to provide a consistent basis for comparing the risks and other adverse consequences associated with the various waste problems at the Lab. The LANL ER Site Ranking System is being developed to help address this need. The specific purpose of the system is to help improve, defend, and explain prioritization decisions at the Potential Release Site (PRS) and Operable Unit (OU) level. The precise relationship of the Site Ranking System to the planning and overall budget processes is yet to be determined, as the system is still evolving. Generally speaking, the Site Ranking System will be used as a decision aid. That is, the system will be used to aid in the planning and budgetary decision-making process. It will never be used alone to make decisions. Like all models, the system can provide only a partial and approximate accounting of the factors important to budget and planning decisions. Decision makers at LANL will have to consider factors outside of the formal system when making final choices. Some of these other factors are regulatory requirements, DOE policy, and public concern. The main value of the site ranking system, therefore, is not the precise numbers it generates, but rather the general insights it provides.

  15. LANL environmental restoration site ranking system: System description. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merkhofer, L.; Kann, A.; Voth, M.

    1992-01-01

    The basic structure of the LANL Environmental Restoration (ER) Site Ranking System and its use are described in this document. A related document, Instructions for Generating Inputs for the LANL ER Site Ranking System, contains detailed descriptions of the methods by which necessary inputs for the system will be generated. LANL has long recognized the need to provide a consistent basis for comparing the risks and other adverse consequences associated with the various waste problems at the Lab. The LANL ER Site Ranking System is being developed to help address this need. The specific purpose of the system is to help improve, defend, and explain prioritization decisions at the Potential Release Site (PRS) and Operable Unit (OU) level. The precise relationship of the Site Ranking System to the planning and overall budget processes is yet to be determined, as the system is still evolving. Generally speaking, the Site Ranking System will be used as a decision aid. That is, the system will be used to aid in the planning and budgetary decision-making process. It will never be used alone to make decisions. Like all models, the system can provide only a partial and approximate accounting of the factors important to budget and planning decisions. Decision makers at LANL will have to consider factors outside of the formal system when making final choices. Some of these other factors are regulatory requirements, DOE policy, and public concern. The main value of the site ranking system, therefore, is not the precise numbers it generates, but rather the general insights it provides

  16. Risk Factors for Nursing Home Placement in Alzheimer's Disease: A Longitudinal Study of Cognition, ADL, Service Utilization, and Cholinesterase Inhibitor Treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wattmo, Carina; Wallin, Asa K.; Londos, Elisabet; Minthon, Lennart

    2011-01-01

    Purpose of the Study: To identify risk factors for early nursing home placement (NHP) in Alzheimer's disease (AD), focusing on the impact of longitudinal change in cognition, activities of daily living (ADL), service utilization, and cholinesterase inhibitor treatment (ChEI). Design and Methods: In an open, 3-year, prospective, multicenter study…

  17. The utility of screen for child anxiety related emotional disorders (SCARED) as a tool for identifying children at high risk for prevalent anxiety disorders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muris, P.; Merckelbach, H.; Kindt, M.; Bögels, S.; Dreessen, L.; van Dorp, C.; Habets, A.; Rosmuller, S.; Snieder, N.

    2001-01-01

    The current study examined the utility of the Screen for Child Anxiety Related Emotional Disorders (SCARED) as a screening tool for the identification of children at high risk for prevalent childhood anxiety disorders. The child version of the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM (KSCID) was used

  18. Eliciting and Combining Decision Criteria Using a Limited Palette of Utility Functions and Uncertainty Distributions: Illustrated by Application to Pest Risk Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Johnson; Leach, Adrian W; Schrader, Gritta; Petter, Françoise; MacLeod, Alan; van der Gaag, Dirk Jan; Baker, Richard H A; Mumford, John D

    2014-01-01

    Utility functions in the form of tables or matrices have often been used to combine discretely rated decision-making criteria. Matrix elements are usually specified individually, so no one rule or principle can be easily stated for the utility function as a whole. A series of five matrices are presented that aggregate criteria two at a time using simple rules that express a varying degree of constraint of the lower rating over the higher. A further nine possible matrices were obtained by using a different rule either side of the main axis of the matrix to describe situations where the criteria have a differential influence on the outcome. Uncertainties in the criteria are represented by three alternative frequency distributions from which the assessors select the most appropriate. The output of the utility function is a distribution of rating frequencies that is dependent on the distributions of the input criteria. In pest risk analysis (PRA), seven of these utility functions were required to mimic the logic by which assessors for the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization arrive at an overall rating of pest risk. The framework enables the development of PRAs that are consistent and easy to understand, criticize, compare, and change. When tested in workshops, PRA practitioners thought that the approach accorded with both the logic and the level of resolution that they used in the risk assessments. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Ranking alternatives based on imprecise multi-criteria data and pairwise overlap dominance relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Franco de los Rios, Camilo Andres; Hougaard, Jens Leth; Nielsen, Kurt

    illustrative example is given for comparison with standard methods like PROMETHEE. The proposed methodology takes into account the risk attitudes of decision makers, organizing the alternatives and ranking them according to their relevance. The whole interactive decision support allows understanding...

  20. Ranking scientific publications: the effect of nonlinearity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Liyang; Wei, Tian; Zeng, An; Fan, Ying; di, Zengru

    2014-10-01

    Ranking the significance of scientific publications is a long-standing challenge. The network-based analysis is a natural and common approach for evaluating the scientific credit of papers. Although the number of citations has been widely used as a metric to rank papers, recently some iterative processes such as the well-known PageRank algorithm have been applied to the citation networks to address this problem. In this paper, we introduce nonlinearity to the PageRank algorithm when aggregating resources from different nodes to further enhance the effect of important papers. The validation of our method is performed on the data of American Physical Society (APS) journals. The results indicate that the nonlinearity improves the performance of the PageRank algorithm in terms of ranking effectiveness, as well as robustness against malicious manipulations. Although the nonlinearity analysis is based on the PageRank algorithm, it can be easily extended to other iterative ranking algorithms and similar improvements are expected.

  1. Ranking scientific publications: the effect of nonlinearity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Liyang; Wei, Tian; Zeng, An; Fan, Ying; Di, Zengru

    2014-10-17

    Ranking the significance of scientific publications is a long-standing challenge. The network-based analysis is a natural and common approach for evaluating the scientific credit of papers. Although the number of citations has been widely used as a metric to rank papers, recently some iterative processes such as the well-known PageRank algorithm have been applied to the citation networks to address this problem. In this paper, we introduce nonlinearity to the PageRank algorithm when aggregating resources from different nodes to further enhance the effect of important papers. The validation of our method is performed on the data of American Physical Society (APS) journals. The results indicate that the nonlinearity improves the performance of the PageRank algorithm in terms of ranking effectiveness, as well as robustness against malicious manipulations. Although the nonlinearity analysis is based on the PageRank algorithm, it can be easily extended to other iterative ranking algorithms and similar improvements are expected.

  2. Neural Ranking Models with Weak Supervision

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dehghani, M.; Zamani, H.; Severyn, A.; Kamps, J.; Croft, W.B.

    2017-01-01

    Despite the impressive improvements achieved by unsupervised deep neural networks in computer vision and NLP tasks, such improvements have not yet been observed in ranking for information retrieval. The reason may be the complexity of the ranking problem, as it is not obvious how to learn from

  3. A Rational Method for Ranking Engineering Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glower, Donald D.

    1980-01-01

    Compares two methods for ranking academic programs, the opinion poll v examination of career successes of the program's alumni. For the latter, "Who's Who in Engineering" and levels of research funding provided data. Tables display resulting data and compare rankings by the two methods for chemical engineering and civil engineering. (CS)

  4. Lerot: An Online Learning to Rank Framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuth, A.; Hofmann, K.; Whiteson, S.; de Rijke, M.

    2013-01-01

    Online learning to rank methods for IR allow retrieval systems to optimize their own performance directly from interactions with users via click feedback. In the software package Lerot, presented in this paper, we have bundled all ingredients needed for experimenting with online learning to rank for

  5. Adaptive distributional extensions to DFR ranking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Casper; Simonsen, Jakob Grue; Järvelin, Kalervo

    2016-01-01

    -fitting distribution. We call this model Adaptive Distributional Ranking (ADR) because it adapts the ranking to the statistics of the specific dataset being processed each time. Experiments on TREC data show ADR to outperform DFR models (and their extensions) and be comparable in performance to a query likelihood...

  6. Contests with rank-order spillovers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.R. Baye (Michael); D. Kovenock (Dan); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis paper presents a unified framework for characterizing symmetric equilibrium in simultaneous move, two-player, rank-order contests with complete information, in which each player's strategy generates direct or indirect affine "spillover" effects that depend on the rank-order of her

  7. Classification of rank 2 cluster varieties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mandel, Travis

    We classify rank 2 cluster varieties (those whose corresponding skew-form has rank 2) according to the deformation type of a generic fiber U of their X-spaces, as defined by Fock and Goncharov. Our approach is based on the work of Gross, Hacking, and Keel for cluster varieties and log Calabi...

  8. Using centrality to rank web snippets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jijkoun, V.; de Rijke, M.; Peters, C.; Jijkoun, V.; Mandl, T.; Müller, H.; Oard, D.W.; Peñas, A.; Petras, V.; Santos, D.

    2008-01-01

    We describe our participation in the WebCLEF 2007 task, targeted at snippet retrieval from web data. Our system ranks snippets based on a simple similarity-based centrality, inspired by the web page ranking algorithms. We experimented with retrieval units (sentences and paragraphs) and with the

  9. Entity Ranking using Wikipedia as a Pivot

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Kaptein; P. Serdyukov; A.P. de Vries (Arjen); J. Kamps

    2010-01-01

    htmlabstractIn this paper we investigate the task of Entity Ranking on the Web. Searchers looking for entities are arguably better served by presenting a ranked list of entities directly, rather than a list of web pages with relevant but also potentially redundant information about

  10. Entity ranking using Wikipedia as a pivot

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaptein, R.; Serdyukov, P.; de Vries, A.; Kamps, J.; Huang, X.J.; Jones, G.; Koudas, N.; Wu, X.; Collins-Thompson, K.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we investigate the task of Entity Ranking on the Web. Searchers looking for entities are arguably better served by presenting a ranked list of entities directly, rather than a list of web pages with relevant but also potentially redundant information about these entities. Since

  11. Rank 2 fusion rings are complete intersections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Troels Bak

    We give a non-constructive proof that fusion rings attached to a simple complex Lie algebra of rank 2 are complete intersections.......We give a non-constructive proof that fusion rings attached to a simple complex Lie algebra of rank 2 are complete intersections....

  12. A Ranking Method for Evaluating Constructed Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attali, Yigal

    2014-01-01

    This article presents a comparative judgment approach for holistically scored constructed response tasks. In this approach, the grader rank orders (rather than rate) the quality of a small set of responses. A prior automated evaluation of responses guides both set formation and scaling of rankings. Sets are formed to have similar prior scores and…

  13. Ranking Music Data by Relevance and Importance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruxanda, Maria Magdalena; Nanopoulos, Alexandros; Jensen, Christian Søndergaard

    2008-01-01

    Due to the rapidly increasing availability of audio files on the Web, it is relevant to augment search engines with advanced audio search functionality. In this context, the ranking of the retrieved music is an important issue. This paper proposes a music ranking method capable of flexibly fusing...

  14. Ranking of Unwarranted Variations in Healthcare Treatments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moes, Herry; Brekelmans, Ruud; Hamers, Herbert; Hasaart, F.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a framework designed to identify and rank possible unwarranted variation of treatments in healthcare. The innovative aspect of this framework is a ranking procedure that aims to identify healthcare institutions where unwarranted variation is most severe, and diagnosis

  15. The Rankings Game: Who's Playing Whom?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burness, John F.

    2008-01-01

    This summer, Forbes magazine published its new rankings of "America's Best Colleges," implying that it had developed a methodology that would give the public the information that it needed to choose a college wisely. "U.S. News & World Report," which in 1983 published the first annual ranking, just announced its latest ratings last week--including…

  16. Dynamic collective entity representations for entity ranking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graus, D.; Tsagkias, M.; Weerkamp, W.; Meij, E.; de Rijke, M.

    2016-01-01

    Entity ranking, i.e., successfully positioning a relevant entity at the top of the ranking for a given query, is inherently difficult due to the potential mismatch between the entity's description in a knowledge base, and the way people refer to the entity when searching for it. To counter this

  17. Comparing classical and quantum PageRanks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loke, T.; Tang, J. W.; Rodriguez, J.; Small, M.; Wang, J. B.

    2017-01-01

    Following recent developments in quantum PageRanking, we present a comparative analysis of discrete-time and continuous-time quantum-walk-based PageRank algorithms. Relative to classical PageRank and to different extents, the quantum measures better highlight secondary hubs and resolve ranking degeneracy among peripheral nodes for all networks we studied in this paper. For the discrete-time case, we investigated the periodic nature of the walker's probability distribution for a wide range of networks and found that the dominant period does not grow with the size of these networks. Based on this observation, we introduce a new quantum measure using the maximum probabilities of the associated walker during the first couple of periods. This is particularly important, since it leads to a quantum PageRanking scheme that is scalable with respect to network size.

  18. Universal emergence of PageRank

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frahm, K M; Georgeot, B; Shepelyansky, D L, E-mail: frahm@irsamc.ups-tlse.fr, E-mail: georgeot@irsamc.ups-tlse.fr, E-mail: dima@irsamc.ups-tlse.fr [Laboratoire de Physique Theorique du CNRS, IRSAMC, Universite de Toulouse, UPS, 31062 Toulouse (France)

    2011-11-18

    The PageRank algorithm enables us to rank the nodes of a network through a specific eigenvector of the Google matrix, using a damping parameter {alpha} Element-Of ]0, 1[. Using extensive numerical simulations of large web networks, with a special accent on British University networks, we determine numerically and analytically the universal features of the PageRank vector at its emergence when {alpha} {yields} 1. The whole network can be divided into a core part and a group of invariant subspaces. For {alpha} {yields} 1, PageRank converges to a universal power-law distribution on the invariant subspaces whose size distribution also follows a universal power law. The convergence of PageRank at {alpha} {yields} 1 is controlled by eigenvalues of the core part of the Google matrix, which are extremely close to unity, leading to large relaxation times as, for example, in spin glasses. (paper)

  19. Universal emergence of PageRank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frahm, K M; Georgeot, B; Shepelyansky, D L

    2011-01-01

    The PageRank algorithm enables us to rank the nodes of a network through a specific eigenvector of the Google matrix, using a damping parameter α ∈ ]0, 1[. Using extensive numerical simulations of large web networks, with a special accent on British University networks, we determine numerically and analytically the universal features of the PageRank vector at its emergence when α → 1. The whole network can be divided into a core part and a group of invariant subspaces. For α → 1, PageRank converges to a universal power-law distribution on the invariant subspaces whose size distribution also follows a universal power law. The convergence of PageRank at α → 1 is controlled by eigenvalues of the core part of the Google matrix, which are extremely close to unity, leading to large relaxation times as, for example, in spin glasses. (paper)

  20. PageRank and rank-reversal dependence on the damping factor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, S.-W.; Christensen, C.; Grassberger, P.; Paczuski, M.

    2012-12-01

    PageRank (PR) is an algorithm originally developed by Google to evaluate the importance of web pages. Considering how deeply rooted Google's PR algorithm is to gathering relevant information or to the success of modern businesses, the question of rank stability and choice of the damping factor (a parameter in the algorithm) is clearly important. We investigate PR as a function of the damping factor d on a network obtained from a domain of the World Wide Web, finding that rank reversal happens frequently over a broad range of PR (and of d). We use three different correlation measures, Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall, to study rank reversal as d changes, and we show that the correlation of PR vectors drops rapidly as d changes from its frequently cited value, d0=0.85. Rank reversal is also observed by measuring the Spearman and Kendall rank correlation, which evaluate relative ranks rather than absolute PR. Rank reversal happens not only in directed networks containing rank sinks but also in a single strongly connected component, which by definition does not contain any sinks. We relate rank reversals to rank pockets and bottlenecks in the directed network structure. For the network studied, the relative rank is more stable by our measures around d=0.65 than at d=d0.

  1. PageRank and rank-reversal dependence on the damping factor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, S-W; Christensen, C; Grassberger, P; Paczuski, M

    2012-12-01

    PageRank (PR) is an algorithm originally developed by Google to evaluate the importance of web pages. Considering how deeply rooted Google's PR algorithm is to gathering relevant information or to the success of modern businesses, the question of rank stability and choice of the damping factor (a parameter in the algorithm) is clearly important. We investigate PR as a function of the damping factor d on a network obtained from a domain of the World Wide Web, finding that rank reversal happens frequently over a broad range of PR (and of d). We use three different correlation measures, Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall, to study rank reversal as d changes, and we show that the correlation of PR vectors drops rapidly as d changes from its frequently cited value, d_{0}=0.85. Rank reversal is also observed by measuring the Spearman and Kendall rank correlation, which evaluate relative ranks rather than absolute PR. Rank reversal happens not only in directed networks containing rank sinks but also in a single strongly connected component, which by definition does not contain any sinks. We relate rank reversals to rank pockets and bottlenecks in the directed network structure. For the network studied, the relative rank is more stable by our measures around d=0.65 than at d=d_{0}.

  2. A tilting approach to ranking influence

    KAUST Repository

    Genton, Marc G.

    2014-12-01

    We suggest a new approach, which is applicable for general statistics computed from random samples of univariate or vector-valued or functional data, to assessing the influence that individual data have on the value of a statistic, and to ranking the data in terms of that influence. Our method is based on, first, perturbing the value of the statistic by ‘tilting’, or reweighting, each data value, where the total amount of tilt is constrained to be the least possible, subject to achieving a given small perturbation of the statistic, and, then, taking the ranking of the influence of data values to be that which corresponds to ranking the changes in data weights. It is shown, both theoretically and numerically, that this ranking does not depend on the size of the perturbation, provided that the perturbation is sufficiently small. That simple result leads directly to an elegant geometric interpretation of the ranks; they are the ranks of the lengths of projections of the weights onto a ‘line’ determined by the first empirical principal component function in a generalized measure of covariance. To illustrate the generality of the method we introduce and explore it in the case of functional data, where (for example) it leads to generalized boxplots. The method has the advantage of providing an interpretable ranking that depends on the statistic under consideration. For example, the ranking of data, in terms of their influence on the value of a statistic, is different for a measure of location and for a measure of scale. This is as it should be; a ranking of data in terms of their influence should depend on the manner in which the data are used. Additionally, the ranking recognizes, rather than ignores, sign, and in particular can identify left- and right-hand ‘tails’ of the distribution of a random function or vector.

  3. A Ranking Approach to Genomic Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blondel, Mathieu; Onogi, Akio; Iwata, Hiroyoshi; Ueda, Naonori

    2015-01-01

    Genomic selection (GS) is a recent selective breeding method which uses predictive models based on whole-genome molecular markers. Until now, existing studies formulated GS as the problem of modeling an individual's breeding value for a particular trait of interest, i.e., as a regression problem. To assess predictive accuracy of the model, the Pearson correlation between observed and predicted trait values was used. In this paper, we propose to formulate GS as the problem of ranking individuals according to their breeding value. Our proposed framework allows us to employ machine learning methods for ranking which had previously not been considered in the GS literature. To assess ranking accuracy of a model, we introduce a new measure originating from the information retrieval literature called normalized discounted cumulative gain (NDCG). NDCG rewards more strongly models which assign a high rank to individuals with high breeding value. Therefore, NDCG reflects a prerequisite objective in selective breeding: accurate selection of individuals with high breeding value. We conducted a comparison of 10 existing regression methods and 3 new ranking methods on 6 datasets, consisting of 4 plant species and 25 traits. Our experimental results suggest that tree-based ensemble methods including McRank, Random Forests and Gradient Boosting Regression Trees achieve excellent ranking accuracy. RKHS regression and RankSVM also achieve good accuracy when used with an RBF kernel. Traditional regression methods such as Bayesian lasso, wBSR and BayesC were found less suitable for ranking. Pearson correlation was found to correlate poorly with NDCG. Our study suggests two important messages. First, ranking methods are a promising research direction in GS. Second, NDCG can be a useful evaluation measure for GS.

  4. Optimization of the two-sample rank Neyman-Pearson detector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akimov, P. S.; Barashkov, V. M.

    1984-10-01

    The development of optimal algorithms concerned with rank considerations in the case of finite sample sizes involves considerable mathematical difficulties. The present investigation provides results related to the design and the analysis of an optimal rank detector based on a utilization of the Neyman-Pearson criteria. The detection of a signal in the presence of background noise is considered, taking into account n observations (readings) x1, x2, ... xn in the experimental communications channel. The computation of the value of the rank of an observation is calculated on the basis of relations between x and the variable y, representing interference. Attention is given to conditions in the absence of a signal, the probability of the detection of an arriving signal, details regarding the utilization of the Neyman-Pearson criteria, the scheme of an optimal rank, multichannel, incoherent detector, and an analysis of the detector.

  5. Risk ranking of pathogens in ready-to-eat unprocessed foods of non-animal origin (FoNAO) in the EU: Initial evaluation using outbreak data (2007-2011)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Da Silva Felício, M. T.; Hald, Tine; Liebana, E.

    2015-01-01

    Foods of non-animal origin (FoNAO) are consumed in a variety of forms, being a major component of almost all meals. These food types have the potential to be associated with large outbreaks as seen in 2011 associated with VTEC O104. In order to identify and rank specific food/pathogen combination...... processed, stored and prepared as part of the above data collection exercises....... most often linked to human cases originating from FoNAO in the EU, a semi-quantitative model was developed using seven criteria: strength of associations between food and pathogen based on the foodborne outbreak data from EU Zoonoses Monitoring (2007-2011), incidence of illness, burden of disease, dose......NAO in the EU. Efforts to collect additional data even in the absence of reported outbreaks as well as to enhance the quality of the EU-specific data, which was used as input for all the model criteria, will allow the improvement of the model outputs. Furthermore, it is recommended that harmonised terminology...

  6. Multi-energy CT based on a prior rank, intensity and sparsity model (PRISM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Hao; Osher, Stanley; Yu, Hengyong; Wang, Ge

    2011-01-01

    We propose a compressive sensing approach for multi-energy computed tomography (CT), namely the prior rank, intensity and sparsity model (PRISM). To further compress the multi-energy image for allowing the reconstruction with fewer CT data and less radiation dose, the PRISM models a multi-energy image as the superposition of a low-rank matrix and a sparse matrix (with row dimension in space and column dimension in energy), where the low-rank matrix corresponds to the stationary background over energy that has a low matrix rank, and the sparse matrix represents the rest of distinct spectral features that are often sparse. Distinct from previous methods, the PRISM utilizes the generalized rank, e.g., the matrix rank of tight-frame transform of a multi-energy image, which offers a way to characterize the multi-level and multi-filtered image coherence across the energy spectrum. Besides, the energy-dependent intensity information can be incorporated into the PRISM in terms of the spectral curves for base materials, with which the restoration of the multi-energy image becomes the reconstruction of the energy-independent material composition matrix. In other words, the PRISM utilizes prior knowledge on the generalized rank and sparsity of a multi-energy image, and intensity/spectral characteristics of base materials. Furthermore, we develop an accurate and fast split Bregman method for the PRISM and demonstrate the superior performance of the PRISM relative to several competing methods in simulations. (papers)

  7. Escaping the repugnant conclusion: rank-discounted utilitarianism with variable population

    OpenAIRE

    Asheim, Geir Bjarne; Zuber, Stéphane

    2014-01-01

    We contribute to population ethics by proposing and axiomatizing rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (RDCLU). Population ethics is needed for evaluation of policies, e.g., concerning climate change, where population size depends on the chosen policy. We show that critical-level generalized utilitarianism and (a version of) critical-level leximin are the limits of RDCLU for extreme values of the rank utility discount factor. Moreover, we establish how RDCLU avoids serious...

  8. Synfuels from low-rank coals at the Great Plains Gasification Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollock, D.

    1992-01-01

    This presentation focuses on the use of low rank coals to form synfuels. A worldwide abundance of low rank coals exists. Large deposits in the United States are located in Texas and North Dakota. Low rank coal deposits are also found in Europe, India and Australia. Because of the high moisture content of lignite ranging from 30% to 60% or higher, it is usually utilized in mine mouth applications. Lignite is generally very reactive and contains varying amounts of ash and sulfur. Typical uses for lignite are listed. A commercial application using lignite as feedstock to a synfuels plant, Dakota Gasification Company's Great Plains Gasification Plant, is discussed

  9. Expected utility without utility

    OpenAIRE

    Castagnoli, E.; Licalzi, M.

    1996-01-01

    This paper advances an interpretation of Von Neumann–Morgenstern’s expected utility model for preferences over lotteries which does not require the notion of a cardinal utility over prizes and can be phrased entirely in the language of probability. According to it, the expected utility of a lottery can be read as the probability that this lottery outperforms another given independent lottery. The implications of this interpretation for some topics and models in decision theory are considered....

  10. Adiabatic quantum algorithm for search engine ranking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garnerone, Silvano; Zanardi, Paolo; Lidar, Daniel A

    2012-06-08

    We propose an adiabatic quantum algorithm for generating a quantum pure state encoding of the PageRank vector, the most widely used tool in ranking the relative importance of internet pages. We present extensive numerical simulations which provide evidence that this algorithm can prepare the quantum PageRank state in a time which, on average, scales polylogarithmically in the number of web pages. We argue that the main topological feature of the underlying web graph allowing for such a scaling is the out-degree distribution. The top-ranked log(n) entries of the quantum PageRank state can then be estimated with a polynomial quantum speed-up. Moreover, the quantum PageRank state can be used in "q-sampling" protocols for testing properties of distributions, which require exponentially fewer measurements than all classical schemes designed for the same task. This can be used to decide whether to run a classical update of the PageRank.

  11. RankExplorer: Visualization of Ranking Changes in Large Time Series Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Conglei; Cui, Weiwei; Liu, Shixia; Xu, Panpan; Chen, Wei; Qu, Huamin

    2012-12-01

    For many applications involving time series data, people are often interested in the changes of item values over time as well as their ranking changes. For example, people search many words via search engines like Google and Bing every day. Analysts are interested in both the absolute searching number for each word as well as their relative rankings. Both sets of statistics may change over time. For very large time series data with thousands of items, how to visually present ranking changes is an interesting challenge. In this paper, we propose RankExplorer, a novel visualization method based on ThemeRiver to reveal the ranking changes. Our method consists of four major components: 1) a segmentation method which partitions a large set of time series curves into a manageable number of ranking categories; 2) an extended ThemeRiver view with embedded color bars and changing glyphs to show the evolution of aggregation values related to each ranking category over time as well as the content changes in each ranking category; 3) a trend curve to show the degree of ranking changes over time; 4) rich user interactions to support interactive exploration of ranking changes. We have applied our method to some real time series data and the case studies demonstrate that our method can reveal the underlying patterns related to ranking changes which might otherwise be obscured in traditional visualizations.

  12. Low-rank coal study. Volume 4. Regulatory, environmental, and market analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1980-11-01

    The regulatory, environmental, and market constraints to development of US low-rank coal resources are analyzed. Government-imposed environmental and regulatory requirements are among the most important factors that determine the markets for low-rank coal and the technology used in the extraction, delivery, and utilization systems. Both state and federal controls are examined, in light of available data on impacts and effluents associated with major low-rank coal development efforts. The market analysis examines both the penetration of existing markets by low-rank coal and the evolution of potential markets in the future. The electric utility industry consumes about 99 percent of the total low-rank coal production. This use in utility boilers rose dramatically in the 1970's and is expected to continue to grow rapidly. In the late 1980's and 1990's, industrial direct use of low-rank coal and the production of synthetic fuels are expected to start growing as major new markets.

  13. Communities in Large Networks: Identification and Ranking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Martin

    2008-01-01

    show that the problem of deciding whether a non trivial community exists is NP complete. Nevertheless, experiments show that a very simple greedy approach can identify members of a community in the Danish part of the web graph with time complexity only dependent on the size of the found community...... and its immediate surroundings. The members are ranked with a “local” variant of the PageRank algorithm. Results are reported from successful experiments on identifying and ranking Danish Computer Science sites and Danish Chess pages using only a few representatives....

  14. A Universal Rank-Size Law

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    A mere hyperbolic law, like the Zipf’s law power function, is often inadequate to describe rank-size relationships. An alternative theoretical distribution is proposed based on theoretical physics arguments starting from the Yule-Simon distribution. A modeling is proposed leading to a universal form. A theoretical suggestion for the “best (or optimal) distribution”, is provided through an entropy argument. The ranking of areas through the number of cities in various countries and some sport competition ranking serves for the present illustrations. PMID:27812192

  15. Single and Cumulative Relations of Social Risk Factors with Children's Dental Health and Care-Utilization Within Regions of the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Alyssa J; Gromoske, Andrea N; Olson, Melissa A; Chaffin, Jeffrey G

    2016-03-01

    The purpose is to examine the relation of social risk factors, and the cumulative burden of social risk factors, on parent-reported dental health and dental care-seeking behavior. National Survey of Children's Health data (2011-2012) were analyzed for US children by Title V Block Grant regions. Multivariate logistic regressions were estimated for ten social risk factors, as well as a cumulative risk index, to find any associations with poor condition of teeth, presence of dental caries, and no dental care visits. Almost all of the risk factors were significantly associated with poor condition of teeth and presence of dental caries for the US. Models associating no dental care visits suggested that low family income (OR 1.58), poor maternal mental health (OR 1.54), high school education or less (OR 1.34), and multi-racial/other race (OR 1.18) were significant factors for the US. Regional variation existed for those risk factors and their association with the outcomes, but income, education, and poor maternal mental health consistently played a significant role in adverse outcomes. The cumulative risk index was strongly related to poor oral health outcomes, with a weaker relationship to dental care utilization. US children experiencing certain social risk factors, such as low family income, high school education or less, and poor maternal mental health, are likely to be at greater risk for poor dental health and low levels of dental-care seeking behavior. Children experiencing multiple social risks are at greater risk for poor oral outcomes than children who experience fewer social risks. An approach that involves the social determinants of health is needed to address these issues.

  16. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  17. Scalable Faceted Ranking in Tagging Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orlicki, José I.; Alvarez-Hamelin, J. Ignacio; Fierens, Pablo I.

    Nowadays, web collaborative tagging systems which allow users to upload, comment on and recommend contents, are growing. Such systems can be represented as graphs where nodes correspond to users and tagged-links to recommendations. In this paper we analyze the problem of computing a ranking of users with respect to a facet described as a set of tags. A straightforward solution is to compute a PageRank-like algorithm on a facet-related graph, but it is not feasible for online computation. We propose an alternative: (i) a ranking for each tag is computed offline on the basis of tag-related subgraphs; (ii) a faceted order is generated online by merging rankings corresponding to all the tags in the facet. Based on the graph analysis of YouTube and Flickr, we show that step (i) is scalable. We also present efficient algorithms for step (ii), which are evaluated by comparing their results with two gold standards.

  18. Superfund Hazard Ranking System Training Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Hazard Ranking System (HRS) training course is a four and ½ day, intermediate-level course designed for personnel who are required to compile, draft, and review preliminary assessments (PAs), site inspections (SIs), and HRS documentation records/packag

  19. Who's bigger? where historical figures really rank

    CERN Document Server

    Skiena, Steven

    2014-01-01

    Is Hitler bigger than Napoleon? Washington bigger than Lincoln? Picasso bigger than Einstein? Quantitative analysts are rapidly finding homes in social and cultural domains, from finance to politics. What about history? In this fascinating book, Steve Skiena and Charles Ward bring quantitative analysis to bear on ranking and comparing historical reputations. They evaluate each person by aggregating the traces of millions of opinions, just as Google ranks webpages. The book includes a technical discussion for readers interested in the details of the methods, but no mathematical or computational background is necessary to understand the rankings or conclusions. Along the way, the authors present the rankings of more than one thousand of history's most significant people in science, politics, entertainment, and all areas of human endeavor. Anyone interested in history or biography can see where their favorite figures place in the grand scheme of things.

  20. Ranking Forestry Investments With Parametric Linear Programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul A. Murphy

    1976-01-01

    Parametric linear programming is introduced as a technique for ranking forestry investments under multiple constraints; it combines the advantages of simple tanking and linear programming as capital budgeting tools.

  1. ASSOCIATION OF RISK FACTORS FOR NON-COMMUNICABLE DISEASES WITH HEALTH CARE RESOURCES UTILIZATION AND TEMPORARY DISABILITY ACCORDING TO DATA OF POPULATION STUDY IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION

    OpenAIRE

    E. I. Suvorova; S. A. Shalnova; A. V. Kontsevaya; A. D. Deev; A. V. Kapustina; Yu. A. Balanova

    2018-01-01

    Aim. To analyze the associations of health care system resources utilization and temporary disability (TD) with the main risk factors (RF) for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in working age population based on ESSE-RF study data.Material and methods. The analysis was based on ESSE-RF study data (13 regions of the Russian Federation). Standard epidemiological survey methods and evaluation criteria were used. The analysis included results of a survey of the ESSE-RF study participants about the ut...

  2. Block models and personalized PageRank.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloumann, Isabel M; Ugander, Johan; Kleinberg, Jon

    2017-01-03

    Methods for ranking the importance of nodes in a network have a rich history in machine learning and across domains that analyze structured data. Recent work has evaluated these methods through the "seed set expansion problem": given a subset [Formula: see text] of nodes from a community of interest in an underlying graph, can we reliably identify the rest of the community? We start from the observation that the most widely used techniques for this problem, personalized PageRank and heat kernel methods, operate in the space of "landing probabilities" of a random walk rooted at the seed set, ranking nodes according to weighted sums of landing probabilities of different length walks. Both schemes, however, lack an a priori relationship to the seed set objective. In this work, we develop a principled framework for evaluating ranking methods by studying seed set expansion applied to the stochastic block model. We derive the optimal gradient for separating the landing probabilities of two classes in a stochastic block model and find, surprisingly, that under reasonable assumptions the gradient is asymptotically equivalent to personalized PageRank for a specific choice of the PageRank parameter [Formula: see text] that depends on the block model parameters. This connection provides a formal motivation for the success of personalized PageRank in seed set expansion and node ranking generally. We use this connection to propose more advanced techniques incorporating higher moments of landing probabilities; our advanced methods exhibit greatly improved performance, despite being simple linear classification rules, and are even competitive with belief propagation.

  3. Block models and personalized PageRank

    OpenAIRE

    Kloumann, Isabel M.; Ugander, Johan; Kleinberg, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Methods for ranking the importance of nodes in a network have a rich history in machine learning and across domains that analyze structured data. Recent work has evaluated these methods though the seed set expansion problem: given a subset $S$ of nodes from a community of interest in an underlying graph, can we reliably identify the rest of the community? We start from the observation that the most widely used techniques for this problem, personalized PageRank and heat kernel methods, operate...

  4. A study on ranking ethical factors influencing customer loyalty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmood Modiri

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Having loyal customer is the primary objective of any business owner since loyal customers purchase on regular basis, create sustainable growth and reduce risk of bankruptcy. During the past few years, many people argue that customer loyalty must be established through ethical values. In this paper, we present an empirical investigation to detect ethical factors influencing customer loyalty. The proposed study determines five criteria including customer repurchase, interest in brand, recommending brand to others, positive attitude toward brand and cognitive loyalty to brand. These criteria have been ranked using fuzzy analytical network process. The study determines 14 different ethical values, which may play essential role on customer loyalty and using VIKOR, different ethical values are ranked. The study indicates that welcoming customers is the most important factor followed by cheerfulness, on time delivery, being informative and having appropriate standards.

  5. Evaluation of the osteoclastogenic process associated with RANK / RANK-L / OPG in odontogenic myxomas

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Galván, María del Carmen; Mosqueda-Taylor, Adalberto; Bologna-Molina, Ronell; Setien-Olarra, Amaia; Marichalar-Mendia, Xabier; Aguirre-Urizar, José-Manuel

    2018-01-01

    Background Odontogenic myxoma (OM) is a benign intraosseous neoplasm that exhibits local aggressiveness and high recurrence rates. Osteoclastogenesis is an important phenomenon in the tumor growth of maxillary neoplasms. RANK (Receptor Activator of Nuclear Factor κappa B) is the signaling receptor of RANK-L (Receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa-Β ligand) that activates the osteoclasts. OPG (osteoprotegerin) is a decoy receptor for RANK-L that inhibits pro-osteoclastogenesis. The RANK / RANKL / OPG system participates in the regulation of osteolytic activity under normal conditions, and its alteration has been associated with greater bone destruction, and also with tumor growth. Objectives To analyze the immunohistochemical expression of OPG, RANK and RANK-L proteins in odontogenic myxomas (OMs) and their relationship with the tumor size. Material and Methods Eighteen OMs, 4 small ( 3cm) and 18 dental follicles (DF) that were included as control were studied by means of standard immunohistochemical procedure with RANK, RANKL and OPG antibodies. For the evaluation, 5 fields (40x) of representative areas of OM and DF were selected where the expression of each antibody was determined. Descriptive and comparative statistical analyses were performed with the obtained data. Results There are significant differences in the expression of RANK in OM samples as compared to DF (p = 0.022) and among the OMSs and OMLs (p = 0.032). Also a strong association is recognized in the expression of RANK-L and OPG in OM samples. Conclusions Activation of the RANK / RANK-L / OPG triad seems to be involved in the mechanisms of bone balance and destruction, as well as associated with tumor growth in odontogenic myxomas. Key words:Odontogenic myxoma, dental follicle, RANK, RANK-L, OPG, osteoclastogenesis. PMID:29680857

  6. How Many Alternatives Can Be Ranked? A Comparison of the Paired Comparison and Ranking Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ock, Minsu; Yi, Nari; Ahn, Jeonghoon; Jo, Min-Woo

    2016-01-01

    To determine the feasibility of converting ranking data into paired comparison (PC) data and suggest the number of alternatives that can be ranked by comparing a PC and a ranking method. Using a total of 222 health states, a household survey was conducted in a sample of 300 individuals from the general population. Each respondent performed a PC 15 times and a ranking method 6 times (two attempts of ranking three, four, and five health states, respectively). The health states of the PC and the ranking method were constructed to overlap each other. We converted the ranked data into PC data and examined the consistency of the response rate. Applying probit regression, we obtained the predicted probability of each method. Pearson correlation coefficients were determined between the predicted probabilities of those methods. The mean absolute error was also assessed between the observed and the predicted values. The overall consistency of the response rate was 82.8%. The Pearson correlation coefficients were 0.789, 0.852, and 0.893 for ranking three, four, and five health states, respectively. The lowest mean absolute error was 0.082 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.074-0.090) in ranking five health states, followed by 0.123 (95% CI 0.111-0.135) in ranking four health states and 0.126 (95% CI 0.113-0.138) in ranking three health states. After empirically examining the consistency of the response rate between a PC and a ranking method, we suggest that using five alternatives in the ranking method may be superior to using three or four alternatives. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Rank distributions: A panoramic macroscopic outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliazar, Iddo I.; Cohen, Morrel H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a panoramic macroscopic outlook of rank distributions. We establish a general framework for the analysis of rank distributions, which classifies them into five macroscopic "socioeconomic" states: monarchy, oligarchy-feudalism, criticality, socialism-capitalism, and communism. Oligarchy-feudalism is shown to be characterized by discrete macroscopic rank distributions, and socialism-capitalism is shown to be characterized by continuous macroscopic size distributions. Criticality is a transition state between oligarchy-feudalism and socialism-capitalism, which can manifest allometric scaling with multifractal spectra. Monarchy and communism are extreme forms of oligarchy-feudalism and socialism-capitalism, respectively, in which the intrinsic randomness vanishes. The general framework is applied to three different models of rank distributions—top-down, bottom-up, and global—and unveils each model's macroscopic universality and versatility. The global model yields a macroscopic classification of the generalized Zipf law, an omnipresent form of rank distributions observed across the sciences. An amalgamation of the three models establishes a universal rank-distribution explanation for the macroscopic emergence of a prevalent class of continuous size distributions, ones governed by unimodal densities with both Pareto and inverse-Pareto power-law tails.

  8. Fair ranking of researchers and research teams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vavryčuk, Václav

    2018-01-01

    The main drawback of ranking of researchers by the number of papers, citations or by the Hirsch index is ignoring the problem of distributing authorship among authors in multi-author publications. So far, the single-author or multi-author publications contribute to the publication record of a researcher equally. This full counting scheme is apparently unfair and causes unjust disproportions, in particular, if ranked researchers have distinctly different collaboration profiles. These disproportions are removed by less common fractional or authorship-weighted counting schemes, which can distribute the authorship credit more properly and suppress a tendency to unjustified inflation of co-authors. The urgent need of widely adopting a fair ranking scheme in practise is exemplified by analysing citation profiles of several highly-cited astronomers and astrophysicists. While the full counting scheme often leads to completely incorrect and misleading ranking, the fractional or authorship-weighted schemes are more accurate and applicable to ranking of researchers as well as research teams. In addition, they suppress differences in ranking among scientific disciplines. These more appropriate schemes should urgently be adopted by scientific publication databases as the Web of Science (Thomson Reuters) or the Scopus (Elsevier).

  9. Forward projections of energy market competitiveness rankings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    By July 2007, the provisions of the second Internal Market Directives for Electricity and Gas had been implemented in the majority of EU Member States. These fundamental changes in market opening, ownership structures and network access conditions, together with the increasing maturity of liberalised trading and retail markets, can be expected to affect the behaviour of existing and potential market participants, consequently affecting the energy market competitiveness of alternative countries. While the UK was the most competitive of the EU and G7 energy markets in 2006, the dynamic effect of the liberalisation programme across Continental Europe may challenge that position in the future. This report assesses how competitiveness rankings may evolve in the future, identifying changes that could take place in the UK and the rest of the EU from 2007 to 201 1. It goes on to explore the potential risk that the competitiveness of the UK's energy markets will decline relative to those of other countries in the EU and G7, to the extent that the PSA target will not be met. A detailed analysis of the potential changes in the UK markets is undertaken, including the development of upside and downside scenarios showing the positive and negative effects of changes in market structure and behaviour on the UK's competitiveness score. Changes in market structures required for energy markets in both the 2006 comparator group and the rest of the EU to become as competitive as the UK are then assessed, along with the plausibility of these changes given the current and future market, legislative and regulatory environments

  10. Climate Narratives: Combing multiple sources of information to develop risk management strategies for a municipal water utility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, D. N.; Basdekas, L.; Rajagopalan, B.; Stewart, N.

    2013-12-01

    Municipal water utilities often develop Integrated Water Resource Plans (IWRP), with the goal of providing a reliable, sustainable water supply to customers in a cost-effective manner. Colorado Springs Utilities, a 5-service provider (potable and waste water, solid waste, natural gas and electricity) in Colorado USA, recently undertook an IWRP. where they incorporated water supply, water demand, water quality, infrastructure reliability, environmental protection, and other measures within the context of complex water rights, such as their critically important 'exchange potential'. The IWRP noted that an uncertain climate was one of the greatest sources of uncertainty to achieving a sustainable water supply to a growing community of users. We describe how historic drought, paleo-climate, and climate change projections were blended together into climate narratives that informed a suite of water resource systems models used by the utility to explore the vulnerabilities of their water systems.

  11. Impact of Risk Aversion on Price and Quality Decisions under Demand Uncertainty via the CARA Utility Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinqin Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates optimal price and quality decisions of a manufacturer-retailer supply chain under demand uncertainty, in which players are both risk-averse decision makers. The manufacturer determines the wholesale price and quality of the product, and the retailer determines the retail price. By means of game theory, we employ the constant absolute risk aversion (CARA function to analyze two different supply chain structures, that is, manufacturer Stackelberg model (MS and retailer Stackelberg model (RS. We then analyze the results to explore the effects of risk aversion of the manufacturer and the retailer upon the equilibrium decisions. Our results imply that both the risk aversion of the manufacturer and the retailer play an important role in the price and quality decisions. We find that, in general, in MS and RS models, the optimal wholesale price and quality decrease with the risk aversion of the manufacturer but increase with the risk aversion of the retailer, while the retail price decreases with the risk aversion of the manufacturer as well as the retailer. We also examine the impact of quality cost coefficient on the optimal decisions. Finally, numerical examples are presented to illustrate the different degree of effects of players’ risk aversion on equilibrium results and to compare results in different models considered.

  12. Administrative risk quantification of subcutaneous and intravenous therapies in Italian centers utilizing the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ponzetti C

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Clemente Ponzetti,1 Monica Canciani,2 Massimo Farina,2 Sara Era,3 Stefan Walzer4,5 1Gruppo Policlinico di Monza, Alessandria, ANMDO National Association of Hospital Physicians, Bologna, 2Studio EmmEffe Srl, Milan, 3Roche Spa, Monza, Italy; 4MArS Market Access & Pricing Strategy GmbH, Weil am Rhein, 5State University Baden-Wuerttemberg, Health Care Management, Loerrach, Germany Background: In oncology, an important parameter of safety is the potential treatment error in hospitals. The analyzed hypothesis is that of subcutaneous therapies would provide a superior safety benefit over intravenous therapies through fixed-dose administrations, when analyzed with trastuzumab and rituximab.Methods: For the calculation of risk levels, the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis approach was applied. Within this approach, the critical treatment path is followed and risk classification for each individual step is estimated. For oncology and hematology administration, 35 different risk steps were assessed. The study was executed in 17 hematology and 16 breast cancer centers in Italy. As intravenous and subcutaneous were the only injection routes in medical available for trastuzumab and rituximab in oncology at the time of the study, these two therapies were chosen.Results: When the risk classes were calculated, eight high-risk areas were identified for the administration of an intravenous therapy in hematology or oncology; 13 areas would be defined as having a median-risk classification and 14 areas as having a low-risk classification (total risk areas: n=35. When the new subcutaneous formulation would be applied, 23 different risk levels could be completely eliminated (65% reduction. Important high-risk classes such as dose calculation, preparation and package labeling, preparation of the access to the vein, pump infusion preparation, and infusion monitoring were included in the eliminations. The overall risk level for the intravenous administration was estimated

  13. Changing the paradigm of organ utilization from PHS increased-risk donors: an opportunity whose time has come?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibulesky, Lena; Javed, Imran; Reyes, Jorge D; Limaye, Ajit P

    2015-09-01

    Approximately 8-11% of all organ donors are classified by Public Health Service (PHS) as increased-risk. The proportion of PHS increased-risk donors is on the rise. At the University of Washington Medical Center, in 2014, the proportion of transplants from PHS increased-risk donors was 28% of liver transplants and 23% of kidney transplants. Nationally, transplant providers have been reluctant to use organs from PHS increased-risk donors because of concern for transmission of HIV, HCV, or HBV. There is also patient apprehension when these organs are being offered, and thus the discard rate of these otherwise good quality organs is high. Because of the organ shortage, preventing underutilization of such organs is essential. We provide data and considerations that should be used to guide the use of organs from PHS increased-risk donors. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Quantifying Risk of Financial Incapacity and Financial Exploitation in Community-dwelling Older Adults: Utility of a Scoring System for the Lichtenberg Financial Decision-making Rating Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichtenberg, Peter A; Gross, Evan; Ficker, Lisa J

    2018-06-08

    This work examines the clinical utility of the scoring system for the Lichtenberg Financial Decision-making Rating Scale (LFDRS) and its usefulness for decision making capacity and financial exploitation. Objective 1 was to examine the clinical utility of a person centered, empirically supported, financial decision making scale. Objective 2 was to determine whether the risk-scoring system created for this rating scale is sufficiently accurate for the use of cutoff scores in cases of decisional capacity and cases of suspected financial exploitation. Objective 3 was to examine whether cognitive decline and decisional impairment predicted suspected financial exploitation. Two hundred independently living, non-demented community-dwelling older adults comprised the sample. Participants completed the rating scale and other cognitive measures. Receiver operating characteristic curves were in the good to excellent range for decisional capacity scoring, and in the fair to good range for financial exploitation. Analyses supported the conceptual link between decision making deficits and risk for exploitation, and supported the use of the risk-scoring system in a community-based population. This study adds to the empirical evidence supporting the use of the rating scale as a clinical tool assessing risk for financial decisional impairment and/or financial exploitation.

  15. How Regulatory Risk Has Moved Front and Center in the Tug-of-War between State Commissions and Public Utilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keglevic, Paul; McConomy, John; Koppin, John

    2006-11-15

    Deregulation of generation, volatile commodity markets and an increase in proposed utility mergers have heightened the stakes in the historic struggle of public service commissions to balance the interests of ratepayers and shareholders. The authors review this struggle and its impact on recent requests for rate increases and the pending approval of several mergers announced in the past few years. (author)

  16. How Regulatory Risk Has Moved Front and Center in the Tug-of-War between State Commissions and Public Utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keglevic, Paul; McConomy, John; Koppin, John

    2006-01-01

    Deregulation of generation, volatile commodity markets and an increase in proposed utility mergers have heightened the stakes in the historic struggle of public service commissions to balance the interests of ratepayers and shareholders. The authors review this struggle and its impact on recent requests for rate increases and the pending approval of several mergers announced in the past few years. (author)

  17. PageRank as a method to rank biomedical literature by importance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, Elliot J; Dixon, Louise C

    2015-01-01

    Optimal ranking of literature importance is vital in overcoming article overload. Existing ranking methods are typically based on raw citation counts, giving a sum of 'inbound' links with no consideration of citation importance. PageRank, an algorithm originally developed for ranking webpages at the search engine, Google, could potentially be adapted to bibliometrics to quantify the relative importance weightings of a citation network. This article seeks to validate such an approach on the freely available, PubMed Central open access subset (PMC-OAS) of biomedical literature. On-demand cloud computing infrastructure was used to extract a citation network from over 600,000 full-text PMC-OAS articles. PageRanks and citation counts were calculated for each node in this network. PageRank is highly correlated with citation count (R = 0.905, P PageRank can be trivially computed on commodity cluster hardware and is linearly correlated with citation count. Given its putative benefits in quantifying relative importance, we suggest it may enrich the citation network, thereby overcoming the existing inadequacy of citation counts alone. We thus suggest PageRank as a feasible supplement to, or replacement of, existing bibliometric ranking methods.

  18. RANK/RANK-Ligand/OPG: Ein neuer Therapieansatz in der Osteoporosebehandlung

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Preisinger E

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Die Erforschung der Kopplungsmechanismen zur Osteoklastogenese, Knochenresorption und Remodellierung eröffnete neue mögliche Therapieansätze in der Behandlung der Osteoporose. Eine Schlüsselrolle beim Knochenabbau spielt der RANK- ("receptor activator of nuclear factor (NF- κB"- Ligand (RANKL. Durch die Bindung von RANKL an den Rezeptor RANK wird die Knochenresorption eingeleitet. OPG (Osteoprotegerin sowie der für den klinischen Gebrauch entwickelte humane monoklonale Antikörper (IgG2 Denosumab blockieren die Bindung von RANK-Ligand an RANK und verhindern den Knochenabbau.

  19. Clinical Utility of a Coronary Heart Disease Risk Prediction Gene Score in UK Healthy Middle Aged Men and in the Pakistani Population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine E Beaney

    Full Text Available Numerous risk prediction algorithms based on conventional risk factors for Coronary Heart Disease (CHD are available but provide only modest discrimination. The inclusion of genetic information may improve clinical utility.We tested the use of two gene scores (GS in the prospective second Northwick Park Heart Study (NPHSII of 2775 healthy UK men (284 cases, and Pakistani case-control studies from Islamabad/Rawalpindi (321 cases/228 controls and Lahore (414 cases/219 controls. The 19-SNP GS included SNPs in loci identified by GWAS and candidate gene studies, while the 13-SNP GS only included SNPs in loci identified by the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D consortium.In NPHSII, the mean of both gene scores was higher in those who went on to develop CHD over 13.5 years of follow-up (19-SNP p=0.01, 13-SNP p=7x10-3. In combination with the Framingham algorithm the GSs appeared to show improvement in discrimination (increase in area under the ROC curve, 19-SNP p=0.48, 13-SNP p=0.82 and risk classification (net reclassification improvement (NRI, 19-SNP p=0.28, 13-SNP p=0.42 compared to the Framingham algorithm alone, but these were not statistically significant. When considering only individuals who moved up a risk category with inclusion of the GS, the improvement in risk classification was statistically significant (19-SNP p=0.01, 13-SNP p=0.04. In the Pakistani samples, risk allele frequencies were significantly lower compared to NPHSII for 13/19 SNPs. In the Islamabad study, the mean gene score was higher in cases than controls only for the 13-SNP GS (2.24 v 2.34, p=0.04. There was no association with CHD and either score in the Lahore study.The performance of both GSs showed potential clinical utility in European men but much less utility in subjects from Pakistan, suggesting that a different set of risk loci or SNPs may be required for risk prediction in the South Asian population.

  20. Utilization of small changes in serum creatinine with clinical risk factors to assess the risk of AKI in critically lll adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz, Dinna N; Ferrer-Nadal, Asunción; Piccinni, Pasquale; Goldstein, Stuart L; Chawla, Lakhmir S; Alessandri, Elisa; Belluomo Anello, Clara; Bohannon, Will; Bove, Tiziana; Brienza, Nicola; Carlini, Mauro; Forfori, Francesco; Garzotto, Francesco; Gramaticopolo, Silvia; Iannuzzi, Michele; Montini, Luca; Pelaia, Paolo; Ronco, Claudio

    2014-04-01

    Disease biomarkers require appropriate clinical context to be used effectively. Combining clinical risk factors, in addition to small changes in serum creatinine, has been proposed to improve the assessment of AKI. This notion was developed in order to identify the risk of AKI early in a patient's clinical course. We set out to assess the performance of this combination approach. A secondary analysis of data from a prospective multicenter intensive care unit cohort study (September 2009 to April 2010) was performed. Patients at high risk using this combination approach were defined as an early increase in serum creatinine of 0.1-0.4 mg/dl, depending on number of clinical factors predisposing to AKI. AKI was defined and staged using the Acute Kidney Injury Network criteria. The primary outcome was evolution to severe AKI (Acute Kidney Injury Network stages 2 and 3) within 7 days in the intensive care unit. Of 506 patients, 214 (42.2%) patients had early creatinine elevation and were deemed at high risk for AKI. This group was more likely to subsequently develop the primary endpoint (16.4% versus 1.0% [not at high risk], Pcreatinine, and hazard tier for AKI, early creatinine elevation remained an independent predictor for severe AKI (adjusted relative risk, 12.86; 95% confidence interval, 3.52 to 46.97). Addition of early creatinine elevation to the best clinical model improved prediction of the primary outcome (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve increased from 0.75 to 0.83, Phigh AKI risk, based on the combination of clinical factors and early creatinine elevation, are significantly more likely to develop severe AKI. As initially hypothesized, the high-risk combination group methodology can be used to identify patients at low risk for severe AKI in whom AKI biomarker testing may be expected to have low yield. The high risk combination group methodology could potentially allow clinicians to optimize biomarker use.

  1. Country-specific determinants of world university rankings

    OpenAIRE

    Pietrucha, Jacek

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines country-specific factors that affect the three most influential world university rankings (the Academic Ranking of World Universities, the QS World University Ranking, and the Times Higher Education World University Ranking). We run a cross sectional regression that covers 42–71 countries (depending on the ranking and data availability). We show that the position of universities from a country in the ranking is determined by the following country-specific variables: econom...

  2. Utility of Recent Studies to Assess the National Research Council 2001 Estimates of Cancer Risk from Ingested Arsenic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibb, Herman; Haver, Cary; Gaylor, David; Ramasamy, Santhini; Lee, Janice S.; Lobdell, Danelle; Wade, Timothy; Chen, Chao; White, Paul; Sams, Reeder

    2011-01-01

    Objective The purpose of this review is to evaluate the impact of recent epidemiologic literature on the National Research Council (NRC) assessment of the lung and bladder cancer risks from ingesting low concentrations (ecologic nature of the Taiwanese studies on which the NRC estimates are based present certain limitations, the data from these studies have particular strengths in that they describe lung and bladder cancer risks resulting from lifetime exposure in a large population and remain the best data on which to conduct quantitative risk assessment. Continued follow-up of a population in northeastern Taiwan, however, offers the best opportunity to improve the cancer risk assessment for arsenic in drinking water. Future studies of arsenic < 100 μg/L in drinking water and lung and bladder cancer should consider adequacy of the sample size, the synergistic relationship of arsenic and smoking, duration of arsenic exposure, age when exposure began and ended, and histologic subtype. PMID:21030336

  3. Ethical Dilemmas in Protecting Susceptible Subpopulations From Environmental Health Risks: Liberty, Utility, Fairness, and Accountability for Reasonableness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resnik, David B.; MacDougall, D. Robert; Smith, Elise M.

    2018-01-01

    Various U.S. laws, such as the Clean Air Act and the Food Quality Protection Act, require additional protections for susceptible subpopulations who face greater environmental health risks. The main ethical rationale for providing these protections is to ensure that environmental health risks are distributed fairly. In this article, we (1) consider how several influential theories of justice deal with issues related to the distribution of environmental health risks; (2) show that these theories often fail to provide specific guidance concerning policy choices; and (3) argue that an approach to public decision making known as accountability for reasonableness can complement theories of justice in establishing acceptable environmental health risks for the general population and susceptible subpopulations. Since accountability for reasonableness focuses on the fairness of the decision-making process, not the outcome, it does not guarantee that susceptible subpopulations will receive a maximum level of protection, regardless of costs or other morally relevant considerations. PMID:29466133

  4. Insulin and other antidiabetic drugs and hepatocellular carcinoma risk: a nested case-control study based on Italian healthcare utilization databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosetti, Cristina; Franchi, Matteo; Nicotra, Federica; Asciutto, Rosario; Merlino, Luca; La Vecchia, Carlo; Corrao, Giovanni

    2015-07-01

    Insulin and other antidiabetic drugs may modulate hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in diabetics. We have analyzed the role of various antidiabetic drugs on HCC in a nested case-control study using the healthcare utilization databases of the Lombardy Region in Italy. This included 190 diabetic subjects with a hospital discharge reporting a diagnosis of malignant HCC and 3772 diabetic control subjects matched to each case on sex, age, date at cohort entry, and duration of follow-up. Increased risks of HCC were found for use of insulin (odds ratio [OR] = 3.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.52-5.51), sulfonylureas (OR = 1.39, 95%CI 0.98-1.99), and repaglinide (OR = 2.12, 95%CI 1.38-3.26), while a reduced risk was found for use of metformin (OR = 0.57, 95%CI 0.41-0.79). The risk of HCC increased with increasing duration of insulin use (OR = 2.52 for metformin. Our study supports the evidence that patients with diabetes using metformin, and possibly other antidiabetic drugs that increase insulin sensibility, have a reduced risk of HCC, while those using insulin or drugs that increase circulating insulin, such as insulin secretagogues, have an increased risk. Whether these associations are causal, or influenced by different severity of diabetes and/or possible residual bias or misclassification, is still open to discussion. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Preventable coronary heart disease events from control of cardiovascular risk factors in US adults with diabetes (projections from utilizing the UKPDS risk engine).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Nathan D; Patao, Christopher; Malik, Shaista; Iloeje, Uchenna

    2014-04-15

    Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) carries significant risks for coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined the potential US population impact of single and composite risk factor control. Among US adults with diagnosed T2DM aged≥30 years in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007 to 2012, we assessed CHD events preventable using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study CHD risk engine. We examined in all those not at goal the impact of statistical control of smoking, glycated hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, according to the predefined criteria setting risk factors at different levels of control representing (1) "All to Goal," (2) at "Nominal Control," or (3) at "Aggressive Control." Preventable CHD events represented the difference between the number of events estimated from the control of these risk factors versus current levels of the risk factors. Of 606 men (representing 6.2 million) and 603 women (6.3 million) with DM and no previous CHD, 1.3 million men and 0.7 million women would develop a CHD event within 10 years if left uncontrolled. Controlling all risk factors to goal was projected to prevent 35% and 45% of CHD events in men and women, respectively. Nominal risk factor control was projected to prevent 36% and 38% and aggressive control 51% and 61% of CHD events, respectively. In conclusion, a significant proportion of CHD events in adults with T2DM could be prevented from composite control of risk factors often not at goal. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Global network centrality of university rankings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Weisi; Del Vecchio, Marco; Pogrebna, Ganna

    2017-10-01

    Universities and higher education institutions form an integral part of the national infrastructure and prestige. As academic research benefits increasingly from international exchange and cooperation, many universities have increased investment in improving and enabling their global connectivity. Yet, the relationship of university performance and its global physical connectedness has not been explored in detail. We conduct, to our knowledge, the first large-scale data-driven analysis into whether there is a correlation between university relative ranking performance and its global connectivity via the air transport network. The results show that local access to global hubs (as measured by air transport network betweenness) strongly and positively correlates with the ranking growth (statistical significance in different models ranges between 5% and 1% level). We also found that the local airport's aggregate flight paths (degree) and capacity (weighted degree) has no effect on university ranking, further showing that global connectivity distance is more important than the capacity of flight connections. We also examined the effect of local city economic development as a confounding variable and no effect was observed suggesting that access to global transportation hubs outweighs economic performance as a determinant of university ranking. The impact of this research is that we have determined the importance of the centrality of global connectivity and, hence, established initial evidence for further exploring potential connections between university ranking and regional investment policies on improving global connectivity.

  7. Diversity rankings among bacterial lineages in soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youssef, Noha H; Elshahed, Mostafa S

    2009-03-01

    We used rarefaction curve analysis and diversity ordering-based approaches to rank the 11 most frequently encountered bacterial lineages in soil according to diversity in 5 previously reported 16S rRNA gene clone libraries derived from agricultural, undisturbed tall grass prairie and forest soils (n=26,140, 28 328, 31 818, 13 001 and 53 533). The Planctomycetes, Firmicutes and the delta-Proteobacteria were consistently ranked among the most diverse lineages in all data sets, whereas the Verrucomicrobia, Gemmatimonadetes and beta-Proteobacteria were consistently ranked among the least diverse. On the other hand, the rankings of alpha-Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria, Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes and Chloroflexi varied widely in different soil clone libraries. In general, lineages exhibiting largest differences in diversity rankings also exhibited the largest difference in relative abundance in the data sets examined. Within these lineages, a positive correlation between relative abundance and diversity was observed within the Acidobacteria, Actinobacteria and Chloroflexi, and a negative diversity-abundance correlation was observed within the Bacteroidetes. The ecological and evolutionary implications of these results are discussed.

  8. Social class rank, essentialism, and punitive judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraus, Michael W; Keltner, Dacher

    2013-08-01

    Recent evidence suggests that perceptions of social class rank influence a variety of social cognitive tendencies, from patterns of causal attribution to moral judgment. In the present studies we tested the hypotheses that upper-class rank individuals would be more likely to endorse essentialist lay theories of social class categories (i.e., that social class is founded in genetically based, biological differences) than would lower-class rank individuals and that these beliefs would decrease support for restorative justice--which seeks to rehabilitate offenders, rather than punish unlawful action. Across studies, higher social class rank was associated with increased essentialism of social class categories (Studies 1, 2, and 4) and decreased support for restorative justice (Study 4). Moreover, manipulated essentialist beliefs decreased preferences for restorative justice (Study 3), and the association between social class rank and class-based essentialist theories was explained by the tendency to endorse beliefs in a just world (Study 2). Implications for how class-based essentialist beliefs potentially constrain social opportunity and mobility are discussed.

  9. RANK und RANKL - Vom Knochen zum Mammakarzinom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sigl V

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available RANK („Receptor Activator of NF-κB“ und sein Ligand RANKL sind Schlüsselmoleküle im Knochenmetabolismus und spielen eine essenzielle Rolle in der Entstehung von pathologischen Knochenveränderungen. Die Deregulation des RANK/RANKL-Systems ist zum Beispiel ein Hauptgrund für das Auftreten von postmenopausaler Osteoporose bei Frauen. Eine weitere wesentliche Funktion von RANK und RANKL liegt in der Entwicklung von milchsekretierenden Drüsen während der Schwangerschaft. Dabei regulieren Sexualhormone, wie zum Beispiel Progesteron, die Expression von RANKL und induzieren dadurch die Proliferation von epithelialen Zellen der Brust. Seit Längerem war schon bekannt, dass RANK und RANKL in der Metastasenbildung von Brustkrebszellen im Knochengewebe beteiligt sind. Wir konnten nun das RANK/RANKLSystem auch als essenziellen Mechanismus in der Entstehung von hormonellem Brustkrebs identifizieren. In diesem Beitrag werden wir daher den neuesten Erkenntnissen besondere Aufmerksamkeit schenken und diese kritisch in Bezug auf Brustkrebsentwicklung betrachten.

  10. Utility of Risk Models in Decision Making After Radical Prostatectomy: Lessons from a Natural History Cohort of Intermediate- and High-Risk Men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Ashley E; Yousefi, Kasra; Davicioni, Elai; Ghadessi, Mercedeh; Johnson, Michael H; Sundi, Debasish; Tosoian, Jeffery J; Han, Misop; Humphreys, Elizabeth B; Partin, Alan W; Walsh, Patrick C; Trock, Bruce J; Schaeffer, Edward M

    2016-03-01

    Current guidelines suggest adjuvant radiation therapy for men with adverse pathologic features (APFs) at radical prostatectomy (RP). We examine at-risk men treated only with RP until the time of metastasis. To evaluate whether clinicopathologic risk models can help guide postoperative therapeutic decision making. Men with National Comprehensive Cancer Network intermediate- or high-risk localized prostate cancer undergoing RP in the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) era were identified (n=3089). Only men with initial undetectable PSA after surgery and who received no therapy prior to metastasis were included. APFs were defined as pT3 disease or positive surgical margins. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for time to event data was used to measure the discrimination performance of the risk factors. Cumulative incidence curves were constructed using Fine and Gray competing risks analysis to estimate the risk of biochemical recurrence (BCR) or metastasis, taking censoring and death due to other causes into consideration. Overall, 43% of the cohort (n=1327) had APFs at RP. Median follow-up for censored patients was 5 yr. Cumulative incidence of metastasis was 6% at 10 yr after RP for all patients. Cumulative incidence of metastasis among men with APFs was 7.5% at 10 yr after RP. Among men with BCR, the incidence of metastasis was 38% 5 yr after BCR. At 10 yr after RP, time-dependent AUC for predicting metastasis by Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Postsurgical or Eggener risk models was 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-0.97) and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.67-0.97) in the APF population, respectively. At 5 yr after BCR, these values were lower (0.58 [95% CI, 0.50-0.66] and 0.70 [95% CI, 0.63-0.76]) among those who developed BCR. Use of risk model cut points could substantially reduce overtreatment while minimally increasing undertreatment (ie, use of an Eggener cut point of 2.5% for treatment of men with APFs would spare 46% from treatment

  11. Tensor Rank Preserving Discriminant Analysis for Facial Recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Dapeng; Guo, Yanan; Li, Yaotang; Gao, Xinbo

    2017-10-12

    Facial recognition, one of the basic topics in computer vision and pattern recognition, has received substantial attention in recent years. However, for those traditional facial recognition algorithms, the facial images are reshaped to a long vector, thereby losing part of the original spatial constraints of each pixel. In this paper, a new tensor-based feature extraction algorithm termed tensor rank preserving discriminant analysis (TRPDA) for facial image recognition is proposed; the proposed method involves two stages: in the first stage, the low-dimensional tensor subspace of the original input tensor samples was obtained; in the second stage, discriminative locality alignment was utilized to obtain the ultimate vector feature representation for subsequent facial recognition. On the one hand, the proposed TRPDA algorithm fully utilizes the natural structure of the input samples, and it applies an optimization criterion that can directly handle the tensor spectral analysis problem, thereby decreasing the computation cost compared those traditional tensor-based feature selection algorithms. On the other hand, the proposed TRPDA algorithm extracts feature by finding a tensor subspace that preserves most of the rank order information of the intra-class input samples. Experiments on the three facial databases are performed here to determine the effectiveness of the proposed TRPDA algorithm.

  12. Small Stakes Risk Aversion in the Laboratory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten; Ross, Don

    Evidence of risk aversion in laboratory settings over small stakes leads to a priori implausible levels of risk aversion over large stakes under certain assumptions. One core assumption in standard statements of this calibration puzzle is that individuals define utility over terminal wealth......, and that terminal wealth is defined as the sum of extra-lab wealth and any wealth accumulated in the lab. This assumption is often used in Expected Utility Theory, as well as popular alternatives such as RankDependent Utility theory. Another core assumption is that the small-stakes risk aversion is observed over...... all levels of wealth, or over a “sufficiently large” range of wealth. Although this second assumption if often viewed as self-evident from the vast experimental literature showing risk aversion over laboratory stakes, it actually requires that lab wealth be varied for a given subject as one takes...

  13. Wilcoxon's signed-rank statistic: what null hypothesis and why it matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Heng; Johnson, Terri

    2014-01-01

    In statistical literature, the term 'signed-rank test' (or 'Wilcoxon signed-rank test') has been used to refer to two distinct tests: a test for symmetry of distribution and a test for the median of a symmetric distribution, sharing a common test statistic. To avoid potential ambiguity, we propose to refer to those two tests by different names, as 'test for symmetry based on signed-rank statistic' and 'test for median based on signed-rank statistic', respectively. The utility of such terminological differentiation should become evident through our discussion of how those tests connect and contrast with sign test and one-sample t-test. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  14. A human fecal contamination index for ranking impaired ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Human fecal pollution of surface water remains a public health concern worldwide. As a result, there is a growing interest in the application of human-associated fecal source identification quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) technologies for recreational water quality risk management. The transition from a research subject to a management tool requires the integration of standardized water sampling, laboratory, and data analysis procedures. In this study, a standardized HF183/BacR287 qPCR method was combined with a water sampling strategy and Bayesian data algorithm to establish a human fecal contamination index that can be used to rank impaired recreational water sites polluted with human waste. Stability and bias of index predictions were investigated under various parameters including siteswith different pollution levels, sampling period time range (1-15 weeks), and number of qPCR replicates per sample (2-14 replicates). Sensitivity analyses were conducted with simulated data sets (100 iterations) seeded with HF183/BacR287 qPCR laboratory measurements from water samples collected from three Southern California sites (588 qPCR measurements). Findings suggest that site ranking is feasible and that all parameters tested influence stability and bias in human fecal contamination indexscoring. Trends identified by sensitivity analyses will provide managers with the information needed to design and conduct field studies to rank impaired recreational water sites based

  15. Are men shortchanged on health? Perspective on health care utilization and health risk behavior in men and women in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinkhasov, R M; Wong, J; Kashanian, J; Lee, M; Samadi, D B; Pinkhasov, M M; Shabsigh, R

    2010-03-01

    Significant gender disparities exist in life expectancy and major disease morbidity. There is a need to understand the major issues related to men's health that contributes to these significant disparities. It is hypothesized that, high-risk behaviors and low utilization of all and preventive health services contribute to the higher mortality and the higher and earlier morbidity in men. Data was collected from CDC: Health United States, 2007; Health Behavior of Adults: United States 2002-04; and National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey: 2005 Summary. In United States, men are more likely to be regular and heavy alcohol drinkers, heavier smokers who are less likely to quit, non-medical illicit drug users, and are more overweight compared to women. Men are less likely to utilize health care visits to doctor's offices, emergency departments (ED), and physician home visits than women. They are also less likely to make preventive care, hospice care, dental care visits, and have fewer hospital discharges and shorter hospital stays than women. High-risk behaviors and low utilization of health services may contribute to the lower life expectancy in men. In the context of public health, behavioral and preventive interventions are needed to reduce the gender disparity.

  16. Longitudinal Risk and Resilience Factors Predicting Psychiatric Disruption, Mental Health Service Utilization & Military Retention in OIF National Guard Troops

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-04-01

    learning disabilities and/or emotional difficulties • Wrote integrated assessment reports • Attended Individual Education Plan ( IEP ) meetings where...worked with wide range of disabilities from autism and cerebral palsy to oppositional defiant disorder and bipolar disorder; developed leadership...therapy program for a nine year old boy with autism to foster the development of social skills; utilized sign language to increase communication

  17. Utility of Exercise Testing and Adenosine Response for Risk Assessment in Children with Wolff-Parkinson-White Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ergul, Yakup; Ozturk, Erkut; Ozyilmaz, Isa; Unsal, Serkan; Carus, Hayat; Tola, Hasan Tahsin; Tanidir, Ibrahim Cansaran; Guzeltas, Alper

    2015-01-01

    We aimed to determine the correlation between noninvasive testing (exercise stress testing [EST] and adenosine responsiveness of accessory pathway [AP] ) and invasive electrophysiology study (EPS) for assessment antegrade conduction of the AP in Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome. This prospective, observational study enrolled 40 children (58% male children, median age of 13 years, and median weight of 47.5 kg) with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome. Conduction through the AP to a cycle length of ≤250 ms was considered rapid or high-risk; otherwise, patients were nonrapid or low-risk. The sudden disappearance of the delta-wave was seen in 10 cases (25%) during EST. Accessory pathway was found to be high-risk in 13 cases (13/40, 32.5%) while the accessory path was identified as low-risk in 27 cases; however, six patients (15%) had blocked AP conduction with adenosine during EPS. Low-risk classification by EST alone to identify patients with nonrapid conduction in baseline EPS had a specificity of 93% and a positive predictive value of 90% (accuracy 54%). Blocked AP conduction with adenosine as a marker of nonrapid baseline AP conduction had a specificity of 93% and a positive predictive value of 84%. Finally, AP was adenosine nonresponsive in the majority of patients (28/30, 93%) with persistent delta-waves, 40% of those who had a sudden disappearance of delta-waves had an adenosine-responsive AP (P value: .028). Abrupt loss of preexcitation during EST and blocked AP conduction with adenosine had high specificity and positive predictive value for nonrapid and low-risk antegrade conduction during baseline invasive EPS. Successful risk stratification of pediatric patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White is possible through the use of EST and the adenosine responsiveness of AP. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Low Rank Approximation Algorithms, Implementation, Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Markovsky, Ivan

    2012-01-01

    Matrix low-rank approximation is intimately related to data modelling; a problem that arises frequently in many different fields. Low Rank Approximation: Algorithms, Implementation, Applications is a comprehensive exposition of the theory, algorithms, and applications of structured low-rank approximation. Local optimization methods and effective suboptimal convex relaxations for Toeplitz, Hankel, and Sylvester structured problems are presented. A major part of the text is devoted to application of the theory. Applications described include: system and control theory: approximate realization, model reduction, output error, and errors-in-variables identification; signal processing: harmonic retrieval, sum-of-damped exponentials, finite impulse response modeling, and array processing; machine learning: multidimensional scaling and recommender system; computer vision: algebraic curve fitting and fundamental matrix estimation; bioinformatics for microarray data analysis; chemometrics for multivariate calibration; ...

  19. Resolution of ranking hierarchies in directed networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barucca, Paolo; Lillo, Fabrizio

    2018-01-01

    Identifying hierarchies and rankings of nodes in directed graphs is fundamental in many applications such as social network analysis, biology, economics, and finance. A recently proposed method identifies the hierarchy by finding the ordered partition of nodes which minimises a score function, termed agony. This function penalises the links violating the hierarchy in a way depending on the strength of the violation. To investigate the resolution of ranking hierarchies we introduce an ensemble of random graphs, the Ranked Stochastic Block Model. We find that agony may fail to identify hierarchies when the structure is not strong enough and the size of the classes is small with respect to the whole network. We analytically characterise the resolution threshold and we show that an iterated version of agony can partly overcome this resolution limit. PMID:29394278

  20. Ranking beta sheet topologies of proteins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fonseca, Rasmus; Helles, Glennie; Winter, Pawel

    2010-01-01

    One of the challenges of protein structure prediction is to identify long-range interactions between amino acids. To reliably predict such interactions, we enumerate, score and rank all beta-topologies (partitions of beta-strands into sheets, orderings of strands within sheets and orientations...... of paired strands) of a given protein. We show that the beta-topology corresponding to the native structure is, with high probability, among the top-ranked. Since full enumeration is very time-consuming, we also suggest a method to deal with proteins with many beta-strands. The results reported...... in this paper are highly relevant for ab initio protein structure prediction methods based on decoy generation. The top-ranked beta-topologies can be used to find initial conformations from which conformational searches can be started. They can also be used to filter decoys by removing those with poorly...

  1. Data envelopment analysis of randomized ranks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sant'Anna Annibal P.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Probabilities and odds, derived from vectors of ranks, are here compared as measures of efficiency of decision-making units (DMUs. These measures are computed with the goal of providing preliminary information before starting a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA or the application of any other evaluation or composition of preferences methodology. Preferences, quality and productivity evaluations are usually measured with errors or subject to influence of other random disturbances. Reducing evaluations to ranks and treating the ranks as estimates of location parameters of random variables, we are able to compute the probability of each DMU being classified as the best according to the consumption of each input and the production of each output. Employing the probabilities of being the best as efficiency measures, we stretch distances between the most efficient units. We combine these partial probabilities in a global efficiency score determined in terms of proximity to the efficiency frontier.

  2. Ranking spreaders by decomposing complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng, An; Zhang, Cheng-Jun

    2013-01-01

    Ranking the nodes' ability of spreading in networks is crucial for designing efficient strategies to hinder spreading in the case of diseases or accelerate spreading in the case of information dissemination. In the well-known k-shell method, nodes are ranked only according to the links between the remaining nodes (residual links) while the links connecting to the removed nodes (exhausted links) are entirely ignored. In this Letter, we propose a mixed degree decomposition (MDD) procedure in which both the residual degree and the exhausted degree are considered. By simulating the epidemic spreading process on real networks, we show that the MDD method can outperform the k-shell and degree methods in ranking spreaders.

  3. Utilization of ACL Injury Biomechanical and Neuromuscular Risk Profile Analysis to Determine the Effectiveness of Neuromuscular Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewett, Timothy E; Ford, Kevin R; Xu, Yingying Y; Khoury, Jane; Myer, Gregory D

    2016-12-01

    The widespread use of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury prevention interventions has not been effective in reducing the injury incidence among female athletes who participate in high-risk sports. The purpose of this study was to determine if biomechanical and neuromuscular factors that contribute to the knee abduction moment (KAM), a predictor of future ACL injuries, could be used to characterize athletes by a distinct factor. Specifically, we hypothesized that a priori selected biomechanical and neuromuscular factors would characterize participants into distinct at-risk profiles. Controlled laboratory study. A total of 624 female athletes who participated in jumping, cutting, and pivoting sports underwent testing before their competitive season. During testing, athletes performed drop-jump tasks from which biomechanical measures were captured. Using data from these tasks, latent profile analysis (LPA) was conducted to identify distinct profiles based on preintervention biomechanical and neuromuscular measures. As a validation, we examined whether the profile membership was a significant predictor of the KAM. LPA using 6 preintervention biomechanical measures selected a priori resulted in 3 distinct profiles, including a low (profile 1), moderate (profile 2), and high (profile 3) risk for ACL injuries. Athletes with profiles 2 and 3 had a significantly higher KAM compared with those with profile 1 (P risk profiles. Three distinct risk groups were identified based on differences in the peak KAM. These findings demonstrate the existence of discernable groups of athletes that may benefit from injury prevention interventions. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT identifier: NCT01034527. © 2016 The Author(s).

  4. Risk management for drinking water safety in low and middle income countries - cultural influences on water safety plan (WSP) implementation in urban water utilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omar, Yahya Y; Parker, Alison; Smith, Jennifer A; Pollard, Simon J T

    2017-01-15

    We investigated cultural influences on the implementation of water safety plans (WSPs) using case studies from WSP pilots in India, Uganda and Jamaica. A comprehensive thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews (n=150 utility customers, n=32 WSP 'implementers' and n=9 WSP 'promoters'), field observations and related documents revealed 12 cultural themes, offered as 'enabling', 'limiting', or 'neutral', that influence WSP implementation in urban water utilities to varying extents. Aspects such as a 'deliver first, safety later' mind set; supply system knowledge management and storage practices; and non-compliance are deemed influential. Emergent themes of cultural influence (ET1 to ET12) are discussed by reference to the risk management, development studies and institutional culture literatures; by reference to their positive, negative or neutral influence on WSP implementation. The results have implications for the utility endorsement of WSPs, for the impact of organisational cultures on WSP implementation; for the scale-up of pilot studies; and they support repeated calls from practitioner communities for cultural attentiveness during WSP design. Findings on organisational cultures mirror those from utilities in higher income nations implementing WSPs - leadership, advocacy among promoters and customers (not just implementers) and purposeful knowledge management are critical to WSP success. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Sign rank versus Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alon, N.; Moran, Sh; Yehudayoff, A.

    2017-12-01

    This work studies the maximum possible sign rank of sign (N × N)-matrices with a given Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension d. For d=1, this maximum is three. For d=2, this maximum is \\widetilde{\\Theta}(N1/2). For d >2, similar but slightly less accurate statements hold. The lower bounds improve on previous ones by Ben-David et al., and the upper bounds are novel. The lower bounds are obtained by probabilistic constructions, using a theorem of Warren in real algebraic topology. The upper bounds are obtained using a result of Welzl about spanning trees with low stabbing number, and using the moment curve. The upper bound technique is also used to: (i) provide estimates on the number of classes of a given Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension, and the number of maximum classes of a given Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension--answering a question of Frankl from 1989, and (ii) design an efficient algorithm that provides an O(N/log(N)) multiplicative approximation for the sign rank. We also observe a general connection between sign rank and spectral gaps which is based on Forster's argument. Consider the adjacency (N × N)-matrix of a Δ-regular graph with a second eigenvalue of absolute value λ and Δ ≤ N/2. We show that the sign rank of the signed version of this matrix is at least Δ/λ. We use this connection to prove the existence of a maximum class C\\subseteq\\{+/- 1\\}^N with Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension 2 and sign rank \\widetilde{\\Theta}(N1/2). This answers a question of Ben-David et al. regarding the sign rank of large Vapnik-Chervonenkis classes. We also describe limitations of this approach, in the spirit of the Alon-Boppana theorem. We further describe connections to communication complexity, geometry, learning theory, and combinatorics. Bibliography: 69 titles.

  6. RankProdIt: A web-interactive Rank Products analysis tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laing Emma

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The first objective of a DNA microarray experiment is typically to generate a list of genes or probes that are found to be differentially expressed or represented (in the case of comparative genomic hybridizations and/or copy number variation between two conditions or strains. Rank Products analysis comprises a robust algorithm for deriving such lists from microarray experiments that comprise small numbers of replicates, for example, less than the number required for the commonly used t-test. Currently, users wishing to apply Rank Products analysis to their own microarray data sets have been restricted to the use of command line-based software which can limit its usage within the biological community. Findings Here we have developed a web interface to existing Rank Products analysis tools allowing users to quickly process their data in an intuitive and step-wise manner to obtain the respective Rank Product or Rank Sum, probability of false prediction and p-values in a downloadable file. Conclusions The online interactive Rank Products analysis tool RankProdIt, for analysis of any data set containing measurements for multiple replicated conditions, is available at: http://strep-microarray.sbs.surrey.ac.uk/RankProducts

  7. Rank-based Tests of the Cointegrating Rank in Semiparametric Error Correction Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hallin, M.; van den Akker, R.; Werker, B.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: This paper introduces rank-based tests for the cointegrating rank in an Error Correction Model with i.i.d. elliptical innovations. The tests are asymptotically distribution-free, and their validity does not depend on the actual distribution of the innovations. This result holds despite the

  8. When sparse coding meets ranking: a joint framework for learning sparse codes and ranking scores

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Jim Jing-Yan

    2017-06-28

    Sparse coding, which represents a data point as a sparse reconstruction code with regard to a dictionary, has been a popular data representation method. Meanwhile, in database retrieval problems, learning the ranking scores from data points plays an important role. Up to now, these two problems have always been considered separately, assuming that data coding and ranking are two independent and irrelevant problems. However, is there any internal relationship between sparse coding and ranking score learning? If yes, how to explore and make use of this internal relationship? In this paper, we try to answer these questions by developing the first joint sparse coding and ranking score learning algorithm. To explore the local distribution in the sparse code space, and also to bridge coding and ranking problems, we assume that in the neighborhood of each data point, the ranking scores can be approximated from the corresponding sparse codes by a local linear function. By considering the local approximation error of ranking scores, the reconstruction error and sparsity of sparse coding, and the query information provided by the user, we construct a unified objective function for learning of sparse codes, the dictionary and ranking scores. We further develop an iterative algorithm to solve this optimization problem.

  9. Learning to rank for information retrieval

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Tie-Yan

    2011-01-01

    Due to the fast growth of the Web and the difficulties in finding desired information, efficient and effective information retrieval systems have become more important than ever, and the search engine has become an essential tool for many people. The ranker, a central component in every search engine, is responsible for the matching between processed queries and indexed documents. Because of its central role, great attention has been paid to the research and development of ranking technologies. In addition, ranking is also pivotal for many other information retrieval applications, such as coll

  10. Cointegration rank testing under conditional heteroskedasticity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Rahbek, Anders Christian; Taylor, Robert M.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the properties of the conventional Gaussian-based cointegrating rank tests of Johansen (1996, Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models) in the case where the vector of series under test is driven by globally stationary, conditionally heteroskedastic......, relative to tests based on the asymptotic critical values or the i.i.d. bootstrap, the wild bootstrap rank tests perform very well in small samples under a variety of conditionally heteroskedastic innovation processes. An empirical application to the term structure of interest rates is given....

  11. Ranking health between countries in international comparisons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    Cross-national comparisons and ranking of summary measures of population health sometimes give rise to inconsistent and diverging conclusions. In order to minimise confusion, international comparative studies ought to be based on well-harmonised data with common standards of definitions and docum......Cross-national comparisons and ranking of summary measures of population health sometimes give rise to inconsistent and diverging conclusions. In order to minimise confusion, international comparative studies ought to be based on well-harmonised data with common standards of definitions...

  12. Preference Learning and Ranking by Pairwise Comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fürnkranz, Johannes; Hüllermeier, Eyke

    This chapter provides an overview of recent work on preference learning and ranking via pairwise classification. The learning by pairwise comparison (LPC) paradigm is the natural machine learning counterpart to the relational approach to preference modeling and decision making. From a machine learning point of view, LPC is especially appealing as it decomposes a possibly complex prediction problem into a certain number of learning problems of the simplest type, namely binary classification. We explain how to approach different preference learning problems, such as label and instance ranking, within the framework of LPC. We primarily focus on methodological aspects, but also address theoretical questions as well as algorithmic and complexity issues.

  13. Compressed Sensing with Rank Deficient Dictionaries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Thomas Lundgaard; Johansen, Daniel Højrup; Jørgensen, Peter Bjørn

    2012-01-01

    In compressed sensing it is generally assumed that the dictionary matrix constitutes a (possibly overcomplete) basis of the signal space. In this paper we consider dictionaries that do not span the signal space, i.e. rank deficient dictionaries. We show that in this case the signal-to-noise ratio...... (SNR) in the compressed samples can be increased by selecting the rows of the measurement matrix from the column space of the dictionary. As an example application of compressed sensing with a rank deficient dictionary, we present a case study of compressed sensing applied to the Coarse Acquisition (C...

  14. Ranking mutual funds using Sortino method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khosro Faghani Makrani

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the primary concerns on most business activities is to determine an efficient method for ranking mutual funds. This paper performs an empirical investigation to rank 42 mutual funds listed on Tehran Stock Exchange using Sortino method over the period 2011-2012. The results of survey have been compared with market return and the results have confirmed that there were some positive and meaningful relationships between Sortino return and market return. In addition, there were some positive and meaningful relationship between two Sortino methods.

  15. Research of Subgraph Estimation Page Rank Algorithm for Web Page Rank

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LI Lan-yin

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The traditional PageRank algorithm can not efficiently perform large data Webpage scheduling problem. This paper proposes an accelerated algorithm named topK-Rank,which is based on PageRank on the MapReduce platform. It can find top k nodes efficiently for a given graph without sacrificing accuracy. In order to identify top k nodes,topK-Rank algorithm prunes unnecessary nodes and edges in each iteration to dynamically construct subgraphs,and iteratively estimates lower/upper bounds of PageRank scores through subgraphs. Theoretical analysis shows that this method guarantees result exactness. Experiments show that topK-Rank algorithm can find k nodes much faster than the existing approaches.

  16. Barriers and Facilitators for Utilization of Genetic Counseling and Risk Assessment Services in Young Female Breast Cancer Survivors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beth Anderson

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Women diagnosed with breast cancer at a young age are more likely to carry a cancer predisposing genetic mutation. Per the current NCCN recommendations, women diagnosed under age 50 should be referred to cancer genetic counseling for further risk evaluation. This study seeks to assess patient-reported barriers and facilitators to receiving genetic counseling and risk assessment among a community-based population of young breast cancer survivors (YBCS. Methods. Through the Michigan Cancer Surveillance Program, a state-based cancer registry, 488 women diagnosed with breast cancer before age 50 in 2006-2007 were identified. They received a mail survey regarding family history and facilitators and barriers to receiving genetic counseling and risk assessment. Results. Responses were received from 289 women (59.2%. One hundred twenty-two (42.2% reported having received cancer genetic counseling. The most frequent reason identified for receiving services was to benefit their family's future. The top reasons for not attending were “no one recommended it” and “medical insurance coverage issues.” Discussion. This study is the first published report using a state cancer registry to determine facilitators and barriers to receiving genetic counseling and risk assessment among YBCS. These findings demonstrate the need for additional awareness and education about appropriate indications for genetic services.

  17. Caregiving associated with selected cancer risk behaviors and screening utilization among women: cross-sectional results of the 2009 BRFSS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reeves Katherine W

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Informal caregiving is increasingly common as the U.S. population ages, and there is concern that caregivers are less likely than non-caregivers to practice health-promoting behaviors, including cancer screening. We examined caregiving effects on cancer risk behaviors and breast and cervical cancer screening in the 2009 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Methods Women age ≥41 with data on breast and cervical cancer screening were included (weighted frequency 3,478,000 women. Cancer screening was classified according to American Cancer Society guidelines. We evaluated the association of caregiving with cancer risk behaviors (obesity, physical activity, alcohol intake, smoking status, and fruit/vegetable consumption and cancer screening (mammography, clinical breast exam [CBE], and Pap test using logistic regression overall and with stratification on age ( Results Caregivers had greater odds of being obese, physically active, and current smokers. Subgroup analyses revealed that caregiving was associated with obesity in younger women and whites, and with less obesity in older women. Also, caregiving was associated with smoking only among younger women and non-whites. Caregivers had greater odds of ever having had a mammogram or CBE, yet there was no association with mammogram, CBE, or Pap test within guidelines. Conclusions Caregiving was associated with some health behaviors that increase cancer risk, yet not with cancer screening within guidelines. Effects of caregiving by age and race require confirmation by additional studies.

  18. Identifying individuals at high risk of psychosis: predictive utility of Support Vector Machine using structural and functional MRI data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel eValli

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The identification of individuals at high risk of developing psychosis is entirely based on clinical assessment, associated with limited predictive potential. There is therefore increasing interest in the development of biological markers that could be used in clinical practice for this purpose. We studied 25 individuals with an At Risk Mental State for psychosis and 25 healthy controls using structural MRI, and functional MRI in conjunction with a verbal memory task. Data were analysed using a standard univariate analysis, and with Support Vector Machine (SVM, a multivariate pattern recognition technique that enables statistical inferences to be made at the level of the individual, yielding results with high translational potential. The application of SVM to structural MRI data permitted the identification of individuals at high risk of psychosis with a sensitivity of 68% and a specificity of 76%, resulting in an accuracy of 72% (p<0.001. Univariate volumetric between-group differences did not reach statistical significance. In contrast, the univariate fMRI analysis identified between-group differences (p<0.05 corrected while the application of SVM to the same data did not. Since SVM is well suited at identifying the pattern of abnormality that distinguishes two groups, whereas univariate methods are more likely to identify regions that individually are most different between two groups, our results suggest the presence of focal functional abnormalities in the context of a diffuse pattern of structural abnormalities in individuals at high clinical risk of psychosis.

  19. Barriers and Facilitators for Utilization of Genetic Counseling and Risk Assessment Services in Young Female Breast Cancer Survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, B.; McLosky, J.; Wasilevich, E.; Callo, S. L.; Duquette, D.; Copeland, G.

    2012-01-01

    Introduction. Women diagnosed with breast cancer at a young age are more likely to carry a cancer predisposing genetic mutation. Per the current NCCN recommendations, women diagnosed under age 50 should be referred to cancer genetic counseling for further risk evaluation. This study seeks to assess patient-reported barriers and facilitators to receiving genetic counseling and risk assessment among a community-based population of young breast cancer survivors (YBCS). Methods. Through the Michigan Cancer Surveillance Program, a state-based cancer registry, 488 women diagnosed with breast cancer before age 50 in 2006-2007 were identified. They received a mail survey regarding family history and facilitators and barriers to receiving genetic counseling and risk assessment. Results. Responses were received from 289 women (59.2%). One hundred twenty-two (42.2%) reported having received cancer genetic counseling. The most frequent reason identified for receiving services was to benefit their family's future. The top reasons for not attending were “no one recommended it” and “medical insurance coverage issues.” Discussion. This study is the first published report using a state cancer registry to determine facilitators and barriers to receiving genetic counseling and risk assessment among YBCS. These findings demonstrate the need for additional awareness and education about appropriate indications for genetic services.

  20. Utilization of 3-Month Yoga Program for Adults at High Risk for Type 2 Diabetes: A Pilot Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyeongra Yang

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Various modes of physical activity, combined with dieting, have been widely recommended to prevent or delay type 2 diabetes. Among these, yoga holds promise for reducing risk factors for type 2 diabetes by promoting weight loss, improving glucose levels and reducing blood pressure and lipid levels. This pilot study aimed to assess the feasibility of implementing a 12-week yoga program among adults at high risk for type 2 diabetes. Twenty-three adults (19 Whites and 4 non-Whites were randomly assigned to the yoga intervention group or the educational group. The yoga group participated in a 3-month yoga intervention with sessions twice per week and the educational group received general health educational materials every 2 weeks. All participants completed questionnaires and had blood tests at baseline and at the end of 3 months. Effect sizes were reported to summarize the efficacy of the intervention. All participants assigned to the yoga intervention completed the yoga program without complication and expressed high satisfaction with the program (99.2%. Their yoga session attendance ranged from 58.3 to 100%. Compared with the education group, the yoga group experienced improvements in weight, blood pressure, insulin, triglycerides and exercise self-efficacy indicated by small to large effect sizes. This preliminary study indicates that a yoga program would be a possible risk reduction option for adults at high risk for type 2 diabetes. In addition, yoga holds promise as an approach to reducing cardiometabolic risk factors and increasing exercise self-efficacy for this group.

  1. The Clinical Utility of Next Generation Sequencing Results in a Community-Based Hereditary Cancer Risk Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunnell, A E; Garby, C A; Pearson, E J; Walker, S A; Panos, L E; Blum, Joanne L

    2017-02-01

    Since the 2013 Supreme Court ruling on BRCA1/BRCA2 patenting, hereditary cancer gene panels now include BRCA1 and BRCA2, making these panels an option for first-tier testing. However, questions remain about the clinical utility and implications of these panels for medical management with inclusion of genes of unknown to moderate penetrance. To better understand how use of these panels affected our practice, we reviewed patients who underwent testing in our clinic from July 1, 2013 through May 23, 2014. Indications for testing included personal and/or family history of breast and/or ovarian cancer. A total of 136 patients underwent panel testing via a single commercial laboratory; 12 (8.8 %) patients were positive for a pathogenic or likely pathogenic mutation (four BRCA2 mutations, two TP53 mutations, one CDH1 mutation, two ATM mutations, and one patient each with a CHEK2, NBN, or PALB2 mutation). Of these positive patients, 100 % met the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guidelines for Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer genetic testing (2.2014). Mutations in seven of twelve (58 %) patients led to changes in medical management; three of seven (43 %) had a non-BRCA1 or BRCA2 gene mutation. Our findings suggest that there is clinical utility of panels that include genes of unknown to moderate penetrance.

  2. Use of net reclassification improvement (NRI method confirms the utility of combined genetic risk score to predict type 2 diabetes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia H T Tam

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS identified more than 70 novel loci for type 2 diabetes (T2D, some of which have been widely replicated in Asian populations. In this study, we investigated their individual and combined effects on T2D in a Chinese population. METHODOLOGY: We selected 14 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in T2D genes relating to beta-cell function validated in Asian populations and genotyped them in 5882 Chinese T2D patients and 2569 healthy controls. A combined genetic score (CGS was calculated by summing up the number of risk alleles or weighted by the effect size for each SNP under an additive genetic model. We tested for associations by either logistic or linear regression analysis for T2D and quantitative traits, respectively. The contribution of the CGS for predicting T2D risk was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC analysis and net reclassification improvement (NRI. RESULTS: We observed consistent and significant associations of IGF2BP2, WFS1, CDKAL1, SLC30A8, CDKN2A/B, HHEX, TCF7L2 and KCNQ1 (8.5×10(-18risk, which yielded odds ratios ranging from 1.07 to 2.09. The 8 significant SNPs exhibited joint effect on increasing T2D risk, fasting plasma glucose and use of insulin therapy as well as reducing HOMA-β, BMI, waist circumference and younger age of diagnosis of T2D. The addition of CGS marginally increased AUC (2% but significantly improved the predictive ability on T2D risk by 11.2% and 11.3% for unweighted and weighted CGS, respectively using the NRI approach (P<0.001. CONCLUSION: In a Chinese population, the use of a CGS of 8 SNPs modestly but significantly improved its discriminative ability to predict T2D above and beyond that attributed to clinical risk factors (sex, age and BMI.

  3. Targeting condom distribution at high risk places increases condom utilization-evidence from an intervention study in Livingstone, Zambia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandøy Ingvild

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The PLACE-method presumes that targeting HIV preventive activities at high risk places is effective in settings with major epidemics. Livingstone, Zambia, has a major HIV epidemic despite many preventive efforts in the city. A baseline survey conducted in 2005 in places where people meet new sexual partners found high partner turnover and unprotected sex to be common among guests. In addition, there were major gaps in on-site condom availability. This study aimed to assess the impact of a condom distribution and peer education intervention targeting places where people meet new sexual partners on condom use and sexual risk taking among people socializing there. Methods The 2005 baseline survey assessed the presence of HIV preventive activities and sexual risk taking in places where people meet new sexual partners in Livingstone. One township was selected for a non-randomised intervention study on condom distribution and peer education in high risk venues in 2009. The presence of HIV preventive activities in the venues during the intervention was monitored by an external person. The intervention was evaluated after one year with a follow-up survey in the intervention township and a comparison township. In addition, qualitative interviews and focus group discussions were conducted. Results Young people between 17-32 years of age were recruited as peer educators, and 40% were females. Out of 72 persons trained before the intervention, 38 quit, and another 11 had to be recruited. The percentage of venues where condoms were reported to always be available at least doubled in both townships, but was significantly higher in the intervention vs. the control venues in both surveys (84% vs. 33% in the follow-up. There was a reduction in reported sexual risk taking among guests socializing in the venues in both areas, but reporting of recent condom use increased more among people interviewed in the intervention (57% to 84% than in the

  4. Targeting condom distribution at high risk places increases condom utilization-evidence from an intervention study in Livingstone, Zambia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandøy, Ingvild Fossgard; Zyaambo, Cosmas; Michelo, Charles; Fylkesnes, Knut

    2012-01-05

    The PLACE-method presumes that targeting HIV preventive activities at high risk places is effective in settings with major epidemics. Livingstone, Zambia, has a major HIV epidemic despite many preventive efforts in the city. A baseline survey conducted in 2005 in places where people meet new sexual partners found high partner turnover and unprotected sex to be common among guests. In addition, there were major gaps in on-site condom availability. This study aimed to assess the impact of a condom distribution and peer education intervention targeting places where people meet new sexual partners on condom use and sexual risk taking among people socializing there. The 2005 baseline survey assessed the presence of HIV preventive activities and sexual risk taking in places where people meet new sexual partners in Livingstone. One township was selected for a non-randomised intervention study on condom distribution and peer education in high risk venues in 2009. The presence of HIV preventive activities in the venues during the intervention was monitored by an external person. The intervention was evaluated after one year with a follow-up survey in the intervention township and a comparison township. In addition, qualitative interviews and focus group discussions were conducted. Young people between 17-32 years of age were recruited as peer educators, and 40% were females. Out of 72 persons trained before the intervention, 38 quit, and another 11 had to be recruited. The percentage of venues where condoms were reported to always be available at least doubled in both townships, but was significantly higher in the intervention vs. the control venues in both surveys (84% vs. 33% in the follow-up). There was a reduction in reported sexual risk taking among guests socializing in the venues in both areas, but reporting of recent condom use increased more among people interviewed in the intervention (57% to 84%) than in the control community (55% to 68%). It is likely that the

  5. Subject Gateway Sites and Search Engine Ranking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thelwall, Mike

    2002-01-01

    Discusses subject gateway sites and commercial search engines for the Web and presents an explanation of Google's PageRank algorithm. The principle question addressed is the conditions under which a gateway site will increase the likelihood that a target page is found in search engines. (LRW)

  6. Rank reduction of correlation matrices by majorization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Pietersz (Raoul); P.J.F. Groenen (Patrick)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper a novel method is developed for the problem of finding a low-rank correlation matrix nearest to a given correlation matrix. The method is based on majorization and therefore it is globally convergent. The method is computationally efficient, is straightforward to implement,

  7. Ranking related entities: components and analyses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bron, M.; Balog, K.; de Rijke, M.

    2010-01-01

    Related entity finding is the task of returning a ranked list of homepages of relevant entities of a specified type that need to engage in a given relationship with a given source entity. We propose a framework for addressing this task and perform a detailed analysis of four core components;

  8. Ranking Very Many Typed Entities on Wikipedia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zaragoza, Hugo; Rode, H.; Mika, Peter; Atserias, Jordi; Ciaramita, Massimiliano; Attardi, Guiseppe

    2007-01-01

    We discuss the problem of ranking very many entities of different types. In particular we deal with a heterogeneous set of types, some being very generic and some very specific. We discuss two approaches for this problem: i) exploiting the entity containment graph and ii) using a Web search engine

  9. On the Dirac groups of rank n

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferreira, P.L.; Alcaras, J.A.C.

    1980-01-01

    The group theoretical properties of the Dirac groups of rank n are discussed together with the properties and construction of their IR's. The cases n even and n odd show distinct features. Furthermore, for n odd, the cases n=4K+1 and n=4K+3 exhibit some different properties too. (Author) [pt

  10. On rank 2 Seiberg-Witten equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Massamba, F.; Thompson, G.

    2004-02-01

    We introduce and study a set of rank 2 Seiberg-Witten equations. We show that the moduli space of solutions is a compact, orientational and smooth manifold. For minimal surfaces of general type we are able to determine the basic classes. (author)

  11. A tilting approach to ranking influence

    KAUST Repository

    Genton, Marc G.; Hall, Peter

    2014-01-01

    We suggest a new approach, which is applicable for general statistics computed from random samples of univariate or vector-valued or functional data, to assessing the influence that individual data have on the value of a statistic, and to ranking

  12. Texture Repairing by Unified Low Rank Optimization

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao Liang; Xiang Ren; Zhengdong Zhang; Yi Ma

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we show how to harness both low-rank and sparse structures in regular or near-regular textures for image completion. Our method is based on a unified formulation for both random and contiguous corruption. In addition to the low rank property of texture, the algorithm also uses the sparse assumption of the natural image: because the natural image is piecewise smooth, it is sparse in certain transformed domain (such as Fourier or wavelet transform). We combine low-rank and sparsity properties of the texture image together in the proposed algorithm. Our algorithm based on convex optimization can automatically and correctly repair the global structure of a corrupted texture, even without precise information about the regions to be completed. This algorithm integrates texture rectification and repairing into one optimization problem. Through extensive simulations, we show our method can complete and repair textures corrupted by errors with both random and contiguous supports better than existing low-rank matrix recovery methods. Our method demonstrates significant advantage over local patch based texture synthesis techniques in dealing with large corruption, non-uniform texture, and large perspective deformation.

  13. Semantic association ranking schemes for information retrieval ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    retrieval applications using term association graph representation ... Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Government College of ... Introduction ... leads to poor precision, e.g., model, python, and chip. ...... The approaches proposed in this paper focuses on the query-centric re-ranking of search results.

  14. Efficient Rank Reduction of Correlation Matrices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I. Grubisic (Igor); R. Pietersz (Raoul)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractGeometric optimisation algorithms are developed that efficiently find the nearest low-rank correlation matrix. We show, in numerical tests, that our methods compare favourably to the existing methods in the literature. The connection with the Lagrange multiplier method is established,

  15. Zero forcing parameters and minimum rank problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barioli, F.; Barrett, W.; Fallat, S.M.; Hall, H.T.; Hogben, L.; Shader, B.L.; Driessche, van den P.; Holst, van der H.

    2010-01-01

    The zero forcing number Z(G), which is the minimum number of vertices in a zero forcing set of a graph G, is used to study the maximum nullity/minimum rank of the family of symmetric matrices described by G. It is shown that for a connected graph of order at least two, no vertex is in every zero

  16. A note on ranking assignments using reoptimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Christian Roed; Nielsen, L.R.; Andersen, K.A.

    2005-01-01

    We consider the problem of ranking assignments according to cost in the classical linear assignment problem. An algorithm partitioning the set of possible assignments, as suggested by Murty, is presented where, for each partition, the optimal assignment is calculated using a new reoptimization...

  17. Language Games: University Responses to Ranking Metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffernan, Troy A.; Heffernan, Amanda

    2018-01-01

    League tables of universities that measure performance in various ways are now commonplace, with numerous bodies providing their own rankings of how institutions throughout the world are seen to be performing on a range of metrics. This paper uses Lyotard's notion of language games to theorise that universities are regaining some power over being…

  18. Ranking Thinning Potential of Lodgepole Pine Stands

    OpenAIRE

    United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service

    1987-01-01

    This paper presents models for predicting edge-response of dominant and codominant trees to clearing. Procedures are given for converting predictions to a thinning response index, for ranking stands for thinning priority. Data requirements, sampling suggestions, examples of application, and suggestions for management use are included to facilitate use as a field guide.

  19. Primate Innovation: Sex, Age and Social Rank

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reader, S.M.; Laland, K.N.

    2001-01-01

    Analysis of an exhaustive survey of primate behavior collated from the published literature revealed significant variation in rates of innovation among individuals of different sex, age and social rank. We searched approximately 1,000 articles in four primatology journals, together with other

  20. Biomechanics Scholar Citations across Academic Ranks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knudson Duane

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Study aim: citations to the publications of a scholar have been used as a measure of the quality or influence of their research record. A world-wide descriptive study of the citations to the publications of biomechanics scholars of various academic ranks was conducted.