Ranking Theory and Conditional Reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Skovgaard-Olsen, Niels

2016-05-01

Ranking theory is a formal epistemology that has been developed in over 600 pages in Spohn's recent book The Laws of Belief, which aims to provide a normative account of the dynamics of beliefs that presents an alternative to current probabilistic approaches. It has long been received in the AI community, but it has not yet found application in experimental psychology. The purpose of this paper is to derive clear, quantitative predictions by exploiting a parallel between ranking theory and a statistical model called logistic regression. This approach is illustrated by the development of a model for the conditional inference task using Spohn's (2013) ranking theoretic approach to conditionals. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

CNN-based ranking for biomedical entity normalization.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Haodi; Chen, Qingcai; Tang, Buzhou; Wang, Xiaolong; Xu, Hua; Wang, Baohua; Huang, Dong

2017-10-03

Most state-of-the-art biomedical entity normalization systems, such as rule-based systems, merely rely on morphological information of entity mentions, but rarely consider their semantic information. In this paper, we introduce a novel convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture that regards biomedical entity normalization as a ranking problem and benefits from semantic information of biomedical entities. The CNN-based ranking method first generates candidates using handcrafted rules, and then ranks the candidates according to their semantic information modeled by CNN as well as their morphological information. Experiments on two benchmark datasets for biomedical entity normalization show that our proposed CNN-based ranking method outperforms traditional rule-based method with state-of-the-art performance. We propose a CNN architecture that regards biomedical entity normalization as a ranking problem. Comparison results show that semantic information is beneficial to biomedical entity normalization and can be well combined with morphological information in our CNN architecture for further improvement.

Evaluation of Term Ranking Algorithms for Pseudo-Relevance Feedback in MEDLINE Retrieval.

Science.gov (United States)

Yoo, Sooyoung; Choi, Jinwook

2011-06-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of query expansion algorithms for MEDLINE retrieval within a pseudo-relevance feedback framework. A number of query expansion algorithms were tested using various term ranking formulas, focusing on query expansion based on pseudo-relevance feedback. The OHSUMED test collection, which is a subset of the MEDLINE database, was used as a test corpus. Various ranking algorithms were tested in combination with different term re-weighting algorithms. Our comprehensive evaluation showed that the local context analysis ranking algorithm, when used in combination with one of the reweighting algorithms - Rocchio, the probabilistic model, and our variants - significantly outperformed other algorithm combinations by up to 12% (paired t-test; p algorithm pairs, at least in the context of the OHSUMED corpus. Comparative experiments on term ranking algorithms were performed in the context of a subset of MEDLINE documents. With medical documents, local context analysis, which uses co-occurrence with all query terms, significantly outperformed various term ranking methods based on both frequency and distribution analyses. Furthermore, the results of the experiments demonstrated that the term rank-based re-weighting method contributed to a remarkable improvement in mean average precision.

Image Re-Ranking Based on Topic Diversity.

Science.gov (United States)

Qian, Xueming; Lu, Dan; Wang, Yaxiong; Zhu, Li; Tang, Yuan Yan; Wang, Meng

2017-08-01

Social media sharing Websites allow users to annotate images with free tags, which significantly contribute to the development of the web image retrieval. Tag-based image search is an important method to find images shared by users in social networks. However, how to make the top ranked result relevant and with diversity is challenging. In this paper, we propose a topic diverse ranking approach for tag-based image retrieval with the consideration of promoting the topic coverage performance. First, we construct a tag graph based on the similarity between each tag. Then, the community detection method is conducted to mine the topic community of each tag. After that, inter-community and intra-community ranking are introduced to obtain the final retrieved results. In the inter-community ranking process, an adaptive random walk model is employed to rank the community based on the multi-information of each topic community. Besides, we build an inverted index structure for images to accelerate the searching process. Experimental results on Flickr data set and NUS-Wide data sets show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Rank-based Tests of the Cointegrating Rank in Semiparametric Error Correction Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hallin, M.; van den Akker, R.; Werker, B.J.M.

2012-01-01

Abstract: This paper introduces rank-based tests for the cointegrating rank in an Error Correction Model with i.i.d. elliptical innovations. The tests are asymptotically distribution-free, and their validity does not depend on the actual distribution of the innovations. This result holds despite the

Ranking of sabotage/tampering avoidance technology alternatives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andrews, W.B.; Tabatabai, A.S.; Powers, T.B.; Daling, P.M.; Fecht, B.A.; Gore, B.F.; Overcast, T.D.; Rankin, W.R.; Schreiber, R.E.; Tawil, J.J.

1986-01-01

Pacific Northwest Laboratory conducted a study to evaluate alternatives to the design and operation of nuclear power plants, emphasizing a reduction of their vulnerability to sabotage. Estimates of core melt accident frequency during normal operations and from sabotage/tampering events were used to rank the alternatives. Core melt frequency for normal operations was estimated using sensitivity analysis of results of probabilistic risk assessments. Core melt frequency for sabotage/tampering was estimated by developing a model based on probabilistic risk analyses, historic data, engineering judgment, and safeguards analyses of plant locations where core melt events could be initiated. Results indicate the most effective alternatives focus on large areas of the plant, increase safety system redundancy, and reduce reliance on single locations for mitigation of transients. Less effective options focus on specific areas of the plant, reduce reliance on some plant areas for safe shutdown, and focus on less vulnerable targets.

Ranking of sabotage/tampering avoidance technology alternatives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andrews, W.B.; Tabatabai, A.S.; Powers, T.B.

1986-01-01

Pacific Northwest Laboratory conducted a study to evaluate alternatives to the design and operation of nuclear power plants, emphasizing a reduction of their vulnerability to sabotage. Estimates of core melt accident frequency during normal operations and from sabotage/tampering events were used to rank the alternatives. Core melt frequency for normal operations was estimated using sensitivity analysis of results of probabilistic risk assessments. Core melt frequency for sabotage/tampering was estimated by developing a model based on probabilistic risk analyses, historic data, engineering judgment, and safeguards analyses of plant locations where core melt events could be initiated. Results indicate the most effective alternatives focus on large areas of the plant, increase safety system redundancy, and reduce reliance on single locations for mitigation of transients. Less effective options focus on specific areas of the plant, reduce reliance on some plant areas for safe shutdown, and focus on less vulnerable targets

Quantum probability ranking principle for ligand-based virtual screening

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Dabbagh, Mohammed Mumtaz; Salim, Naomie; Himmat, Mubarak; Ahmed, Ali; Saeed, Faisal

2017-04-01

Chemical libraries contain thousands of compounds that need screening, which increases the need for computational methods that can rank or prioritize compounds. The tools of virtual screening are widely exploited to enhance the cost effectiveness of lead drug discovery programs by ranking chemical compounds databases in decreasing probability of biological activity based upon probability ranking principle (PRP). In this paper, we developed a novel ranking approach for molecular compounds inspired by quantum mechanics, called quantum probability ranking principle (QPRP). The QPRP ranking criteria would make an attempt to draw an analogy between the physical experiment and molecular structure ranking process for 2D fingerprints in ligand based virtual screening (LBVS). The development of QPRP criteria in LBVS has employed the concepts of quantum at three different levels, firstly at representation level, this model makes an effort to develop a new framework of molecular representation by connecting the molecular compounds with mathematical quantum space. Secondly, estimate the similarity between chemical libraries and references based on quantum-based similarity searching method. Finally, rank the molecules using QPRP approach. Simulated virtual screening experiments with MDL drug data report (MDDR) data sets showed that QPRP outperformed the classical ranking principle (PRP) for molecular chemical compounds.

Quantum probability ranking principle for ligand-based virtual screening.

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Dabbagh, Mohammed Mumtaz; Salim, Naomie; Himmat, Mubarak; Ahmed, Ali; Saeed, Faisal

2017-04-01

Chemical libraries contain thousands of compounds that need screening, which increases the need for computational methods that can rank or prioritize compounds. The tools of virtual screening are widely exploited to enhance the cost effectiveness of lead drug discovery programs by ranking chemical compounds databases in decreasing probability of biological activity based upon probability ranking principle (PRP). In this paper, we developed a novel ranking approach for molecular compounds inspired by quantum mechanics, called quantum probability ranking principle (QPRP). The QPRP ranking criteria would make an attempt to draw an analogy between the physical experiment and molecular structure ranking process for 2D fingerprints in ligand based virtual screening (LBVS). The development of QPRP criteria in LBVS has employed the concepts of quantum at three different levels, firstly at representation level, this model makes an effort to develop a new framework of molecular representation by connecting the molecular compounds with mathematical quantum space. Secondly, estimate the similarity between chemical libraries and references based on quantum-based similarity searching method. Finally, rank the molecules using QPRP approach. Simulated virtual screening experiments with MDL drug data report (MDDR) data sets showed that QPRP outperformed the classical ranking principle (PRP) for molecular chemical compounds.

On revision of partially specified convex probabilistic belief bases

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Rens, G

2016-08-01

Full Text Available We propose a method for an agent to revise its incomplete probabilistic beliefs when a new piece of propositional information is observed. In this work, an agent’s beliefs are represented by a set of probabilistic formulae – a belief base...

Probabilistic dual heuristic programming-based adaptive critic

Science.gov (United States)

Herzallah, Randa

2010-02-01

Adaptive critic (AC) methods have common roots as generalisations of dynamic programming for neural reinforcement learning approaches. Since they approximate the dynamic programming solutions, they are potentially suitable for learning in noisy, non-linear and non-stationary environments. In this study, a novel probabilistic dual heuristic programming (DHP)-based AC controller is proposed. Distinct to current approaches, the proposed probabilistic (DHP) AC method takes uncertainties of forward model and inverse controller into consideration. Therefore, it is suitable for deterministic and stochastic control problems characterised by functional uncertainty. Theoretical development of the proposed method is validated by analytically evaluating the correct value of the cost function which satisfies the Bellman equation in a linear quadratic control problem. The target value of the probabilistic critic network is then calculated and shown to be equal to the analytically derived correct value. Full derivation of the Riccati solution for this non-standard stochastic linear quadratic control problem is also provided. Moreover, the performance of the proposed probabilistic controller is demonstrated on linear and non-linear control examples.

Dominance-based ranking functions for interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Liang-Hsuan; Tu, Chien-Cheng

2014-08-01

The ranking of interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IvIFSs) is difficult since they include the interval values of membership and nonmembership. This paper proposes ranking functions for IvIFSs based on the dominance concept. The proposed ranking functions consider the degree to which an IvIFS dominates and is not dominated by other IvIFSs. Based on the bivariate framework and the dominance concept, the functions incorporate not only the boundary values of membership and nonmembership, but also the relative relations among IvIFSs in comparisons. The dominance-based ranking functions include bipolar evaluations with a parameter that allows the decision-maker to reflect his actual attitude in allocating the various kinds of dominance. The relationship for two IvIFSs that satisfy the dual couple is defined based on four proposed ranking functions. Importantly, the proposed ranking functions can achieve a full ranking for all IvIFSs. Two examples are used to demonstrate the applicability and distinctiveness of the proposed ranking functions.

Combinatoric Models of Information Retrieval Ranking Methods and Performance Measures for Weakly-Ordered Document Collections

Science.gov (United States)

Church, Lewis

2010-01-01

This dissertation answers three research questions: (1) What are the characteristics of a combinatoric measure, based on the Average Search Length (ASL), that performs the same as a probabilistic version of the ASL?; (2) Does the combinatoric ASL measure produce the same performance result as the one that is obtained by ranking a collection of…

A Case-Based Reasoning Method with Rank Aggregation

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Jinhua; Du, Jiao; Hu, Jian

2018-03-01

In order to improve the accuracy of case-based reasoning (CBR), this paper addresses a new CBR framework with the basic principle of rank aggregation. First, the ranking methods are put forward in each attribute subspace of case. The ordering relation between cases on each attribute is got between cases. Then, a sorting matrix is got. Second, the similar case retrieval process from ranking matrix is transformed into a rank aggregation optimal problem, which uses the Kemeny optimal. On the basis, a rank aggregation case-based reasoning algorithm, named RA-CBR, is designed. The experiment result on UCI data sets shows that case retrieval accuracy of RA-CBR algorithm is higher than euclidean distance CBR and mahalanobis distance CBR testing.So we can get the conclusion that RA-CBR method can increase the performance and efficiency of CBR.

Ranking Scientific Publications Based on Their Citation Graph

CERN Document Server

Marian, L; Rajman, M

2009-01-01

CDS Invenio is the web-based integrated digital library system developed at CERN. It is a suite of applications which provides the framework and tools for building and managing an autonomous digital library server. Within this framework, the goal of this project is to implement new ranking methods based on the bibliographic citation graph extracted from the CDS Invenio database. As a first step, we implemented the Citation Count as a baseline ranking method. The major disadvantage of this method is that all citations are treated equally, disregarding their importance and their publication date. To overcome this drawback, we consider two different approaches: a link-based approach which extends the PageRank model to the bibliographic citation graph and a time-dependent approach which takes into account time in the citation counts. In addition, we also combined these two approaches in a hybrid model based on a time-dependent PageRank. In the present document, we describe the conceptual background behind our new...

A novel three-stage distance-based consensus ranking method

Science.gov (United States)

Aghayi, Nazila; Tavana, Madjid

2018-05-01

In this study, we propose a three-stage weighted sum method for identifying the group ranks of alternatives. In the first stage, a rank matrix, similar to the cross-efficiency matrix, is obtained by computing the individual rank position of each alternative based on importance weights. In the second stage, a secondary goal is defined to limit the vector of weights since the vector of weights obtained in the first stage is not unique. Finally, in the third stage, the group rank position of alternatives is obtained based on a distance of individual rank positions. The third stage determines a consensus solution for the group so that the ranks obtained have a minimum distance from the ranks acquired by each alternative in the previous stage. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the applicability and exhibit the efficacy of the proposed method and algorithms.

Non-probabilistic defect assessment for structures with cracks based on interval model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dai, Qiao; Zhou, Changyu; Peng, Jian; Chen, Xiangwei; He, Xiaohua

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Non-probabilistic approach is introduced to defect assessment. • Definition and establishment of IFAC are put forward. • Determination of assessment rectangle is proposed. • Solution of non-probabilistic reliability index is presented. -- Abstract: Traditional defect assessment methods conservatively treat uncertainty of parameters as safety factors, while the probabilistic method is based on the clear understanding of detailed statistical information of parameters. In this paper, the non-probabilistic approach is introduced to the failure assessment diagram (FAD) to propose a non-probabilistic defect assessment method for structures with cracks. This novel defect assessment method contains three critical processes: establishment of the interval failure assessment curve (IFAC), determination of the assessment rectangle, and solution of the non-probabilistic reliability degree. Based on the interval theory, uncertain parameters such as crack sizes, material properties and loads are considered as interval variables. As a result, the failure assessment curve (FAC) will vary in a certain range, which is defined as IFAC. And the assessment point will vary within a rectangle zone which is defined as an assessment rectangle. Based on the interval model, the establishment of IFAC and the determination of the assessment rectangle are presented. Then according to the interval possibility degree method, the non-probabilistic reliability degree of IFAC can be determined. Meanwhile, in order to clearly introduce the non-probabilistic defect assessment method, a numerical example for the assessment of a pipe with crack is given. In addition, the assessment result of the proposed method is compared with that of the traditional probabilistic method, which confirms that this non-probabilistic defect assessment can reasonably resolve the practical problem with interval variables

Non-probabilistic defect assessment for structures with cracks based on interval model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dai, Qiao; Zhou, Changyu, E-mail: changyu_zhou@163.com; Peng, Jian; Chen, Xiangwei; He, Xiaohua

2013-09-15

Highlights: • Non-probabilistic approach is introduced to defect assessment. • Definition and establishment of IFAC are put forward. • Determination of assessment rectangle is proposed. • Solution of non-probabilistic reliability index is presented. -- Abstract: Traditional defect assessment methods conservatively treat uncertainty of parameters as safety factors, while the probabilistic method is based on the clear understanding of detailed statistical information of parameters. In this paper, the non-probabilistic approach is introduced to the failure assessment diagram (FAD) to propose a non-probabilistic defect assessment method for structures with cracks. This novel defect assessment method contains three critical processes: establishment of the interval failure assessment curve (IFAC), determination of the assessment rectangle, and solution of the non-probabilistic reliability degree. Based on the interval theory, uncertain parameters such as crack sizes, material properties and loads are considered as interval variables. As a result, the failure assessment curve (FAC) will vary in a certain range, which is defined as IFAC. And the assessment point will vary within a rectangle zone which is defined as an assessment rectangle. Based on the interval model, the establishment of IFAC and the determination of the assessment rectangle are presented. Then according to the interval possibility degree method, the non-probabilistic reliability degree of IFAC can be determined. Meanwhile, in order to clearly introduce the non-probabilistic defect assessment method, a numerical example for the assessment of a pipe with crack is given. In addition, the assessment result of the proposed method is compared with that of the traditional probabilistic method, which confirms that this non-probabilistic defect assessment can reasonably resolve the practical problem with interval variables.

CAD Parts-Based Assembly Modeling by Probabilistic Reasoning

KAUST Repository

Zhang, Kai-Ke

2016-04-11

Nowadays, increasing amount of parts and sub-assemblies are publicly available, which can be used directly for product development instead of creating from scratch. In this paper, we propose an interactive design framework for efficient and smart assembly modeling, in order to improve the design efficiency. Our approach is based on a probabilistic reasoning. Given a collection of industrial assemblies, we learn a probabilistic graphical model from the relationships between the parts of assemblies. Then in the modeling stage, this probabilistic model is used to suggest the most likely used parts compatible with the current assembly. Finally, the parts are assembled under certain geometric constraints. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework through a variety of assembly models produced by our prototype system. © 2015 IEEE.

CAD Parts-Based Assembly Modeling by Probabilistic Reasoning

KAUST Repository

Zhang, Kai-Ke; Hu, Kai-Mo; Yin, Li-Cheng; Yan, Dongming; Wang, Bin

2016-01-01

Nowadays, increasing amount of parts and sub-assemblies are publicly available, which can be used directly for product development instead of creating from scratch. In this paper, we propose an interactive design framework for efficient and smart assembly modeling, in order to improve the design efficiency. Our approach is based on a probabilistic reasoning. Given a collection of industrial assemblies, we learn a probabilistic graphical model from the relationships between the parts of assemblies. Then in the modeling stage, this probabilistic model is used to suggest the most likely used parts compatible with the current assembly. Finally, the parts are assembled under certain geometric constraints. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework through a variety of assembly models produced by our prototype system. © 2015 IEEE.

Sign rank versus Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension

Science.gov (United States)

Alon, N.; Moran, Sh; Yehudayoff, A.

2017-12-01

This work studies the maximum possible sign rank of sign (N × N)-matrices with a given Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension d. For d=1, this maximum is three. For d=2, this maximum is \\widetilde{\\Theta}(N1/2). For d >2, similar but slightly less accurate statements hold. The lower bounds improve on previous ones by Ben-David et al., and the upper bounds are novel. The lower bounds are obtained by probabilistic constructions, using a theorem of Warren in real algebraic topology. The upper bounds are obtained using a result of Welzl about spanning trees with low stabbing number, and using the moment curve. The upper bound technique is also used to: (i) provide estimates on the number of classes of a given Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension, and the number of maximum classes of a given Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension--answering a question of Frankl from 1989, and (ii) design an efficient algorithm that provides an O(N/log(N)) multiplicative approximation for the sign rank. We also observe a general connection between sign rank and spectral gaps which is based on Forster's argument. Consider the adjacency (N × N)-matrix of a Δ-regular graph with a second eigenvalue of absolute value λ and Δ ≤ N/2. We show that the sign rank of the signed version of this matrix is at least Δ/λ. We use this connection to prove the existence of a maximum class C\\subseteq\\{+/- 1\\}^N with Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension 2 and sign rank \\widetilde{\\Theta}(N1/2). This answers a question of Ben-David et al. regarding the sign rank of large Vapnik-Chervonenkis classes. We also describe limitations of this approach, in the spirit of the Alon-Boppana theorem. We further describe connections to communication complexity, geometry, learning theory, and combinatorics. Bibliography: 69 titles.

A probabilistic graphical model based stochastic input model construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wan, Jiang; Zabaras, Nicholas

2014-01-01

Model reduction techniques have been widely used in modeling of high-dimensional stochastic input in uncertainty quantification tasks. However, the probabilistic modeling of random variables projected into reduced-order spaces presents a number of computational challenges. Due to the curse of dimensionality, the underlying dependence relationships between these random variables are difficult to capture. In this work, a probabilistic graphical model based approach is employed to learn the dependence by running a number of conditional independence tests using observation data. Thus a probabilistic model of the joint PDF is obtained and the PDF is factorized into a set of conditional distributions based on the dependence structure of the variables. The estimation of the joint PDF from data is then transformed to estimating conditional distributions under reduced dimensions. To improve the computational efficiency, a polynomial chaos expansion is further applied to represent the random field in terms of a set of standard random variables. This technique is combined with both linear and nonlinear model reduction methods. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the probabilistic graphical model based stochastic input models. - Highlights: • Data-driven stochastic input models without the assumption of independence of the reduced random variables. • The problem is transformed to a Bayesian network structure learning problem. • Examples are given in flows in random media

Efficient probabilistic inference in generic neural networks trained with non-probabilistic feedback.

Science.gov (United States)

Orhan, A Emin; Ma, Wei Ji

2017-07-26

Animals perform near-optimal probabilistic inference in a wide range of psychophysical tasks. Probabilistic inference requires trial-to-trial representation of the uncertainties associated with task variables and subsequent use of this representation. Previous work has implemented such computations using neural networks with hand-crafted and task-dependent operations. We show that generic neural networks trained with a simple error-based learning rule perform near-optimal probabilistic inference in nine common psychophysical tasks. In a probabilistic categorization task, error-based learning in a generic network simultaneously explains a monkey's learning curve and the evolution of qualitative aspects of its choice behavior. In all tasks, the number of neurons required for a given level of performance grows sublinearly with the input population size, a substantial improvement on previous implementations of probabilistic inference. The trained networks develop a novel sparsity-based probabilistic population code. Our results suggest that probabilistic inference emerges naturally in generic neural networks trained with error-based learning rules.Behavioural tasks often require probability distributions to be inferred about task specific variables. Here, the authors demonstrate that generic neural networks can be trained using a simple error-based learning rule to perform such probabilistic computations efficiently without any need for task specific operations.

A Citation-Based Ranking of Strategic Management Journals

OpenAIRE

Azar, Ofer H.; Brock, David M.

2007-01-01

Rankings of strategy journals are important for authors, readers, and promotion and tenure committees. We present several rankings, based either on the number of articles that cited the journal or the per-article impact. Our analyses cover various periods between 1991 and 2006, for most of which the Strategic Management Journal was in first place and Journal of Economics & Management Strategy (JEMS) second, although JEMS ranked first in certain instances. Long Range Planning and Technology An...

Ranking the Online Documents Based on Relative Credibility Measures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmad Dahlan

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Information searching is the most popular activity in Internet. Usually the search engine provides the search results ranked by the relevance. However, for a certain purpose that concerns with information credibility, particularly citing information for scientific works, another approach of ranking the search engine results is required. This paper presents a study on developing a new ranking method based on the credibility of information. The method is built up upon two well-known algorithms, PageRank and Citation Analysis. The result of the experiment that used Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient to compare the proposed rank (generated by the method with the standard rank (generated manually by a group of experts showed that the average Spearman 0 < rS < critical value. It means that the correlation was proven but it was not significant. Hence the proposed rank does not satisfy the standard but the performance could be improved.

Ranking the Online Documents Based on Relative Credibility Measures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmad Dahlan

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Information searching is the most popular activity in Internet. Usually the search engine provides the search results ranked by the relevance. However, for a certain purpose that concerns with information credibility, particularly citing information for scientific works, another approach of ranking the search engine results is required. This paper presents a study on developing a new ranking method based on the credibility of information. The method is built up upon two well-known algorithms, PageRank and Citation Analysis. The result of the experiment that used Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient to compare the proposed rank (generated by the method with the standard rank (generated manually by a group of experts showed that the average Spearman 0 < rS < critical value. It means that the correlation was proven but it was not significant. Hence the proposed rank does not satisfy the standard but the performance could be improved.

Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting Models by Aggregation of Competitive Predictors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudio Monteiro

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This article presents original probabilistic price forecasting meta-models (PPFMCP models, by aggregation of competitive predictors, for day-ahead hourly probabilistic price forecasting. The best twenty predictors of the EEM2016 EPF competition are used to create ensembles of hourly spot price forecasts. For each hour, the parameter values of the probability density function (PDF of a Beta distribution for the output variable (hourly price can be directly obtained from the expected and variance values associated to the ensemble for such hour, using three aggregation strategies of predictor forecasts corresponding to three PPFMCP models. A Reliability Indicator (RI and a Loss function Indicator (LI are also introduced to give a measure of uncertainty of probabilistic price forecasts. The three PPFMCP models were satisfactorily applied to the real-world case study of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL. Results from PPFMCP models showed that PPFMCP model 2, which uses aggregation by weight values according to daily ranks of predictors, was the best probabilistic meta-model from a point of view of mean absolute errors, as well as of RI and LI. PPFMCP model 1, which uses the averaging of predictor forecasts, was the second best meta-model. PPFMCP models allow evaluations of risk decisions based on the price to be made.

A Probabilistic Feature Map-Based Localization System Using a Monocular Camera

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyungjin Kim

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Image-based localization is one of the most widely researched localization techniques in the robotics and computer vision communities. As enormous image data sets are provided through the Internet, many studies on estimating a location with a pre-built image-based 3D map have been conducted. Most research groups use numerous image data sets that contain sufficient features. In contrast, this paper focuses on image-based localization in the case of insufficient images and features. A more accurate localization method is proposed based on a probabilistic map using 3D-to-2D matching correspondences between a map and a query image. The probabilistic feature map is generated in advance by probabilistic modeling of the sensor system as well as the uncertainties of camera poses. Using the conventional PnP algorithm, an initial camera pose is estimated on the probabilistic feature map. The proposed algorithm is optimized from the initial pose by minimizing Mahalanobis distance errors between features from the query image and the map to improve accuracy. To verify that the localization accuracy is improved, the proposed algorithm is compared with the conventional algorithm in a simulation and realenvironments

A Probabilistic Feature Map-Based Localization System Using a Monocular Camera.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hyungjin; Lee, Donghwa; Oh, Taekjun; Choi, Hyun-Taek; Myung, Hyun

2015-08-31

Image-based localization is one of the most widely researched localization techniques in the robotics and computer vision communities. As enormous image data sets are provided through the Internet, many studies on estimating a location with a pre-built image-based 3D map have been conducted. Most research groups use numerous image data sets that contain sufficient features. In contrast, this paper focuses on image-based localization in the case of insufficient images and features. A more accurate localization method is proposed based on a probabilistic map using 3D-to-2D matching correspondences between a map and a query image. The probabilistic feature map is generated in advance by probabilistic modeling of the sensor system as well as the uncertainties of camera poses. Using the conventional PnP algorithm, an initial camera pose is estimated on the probabilistic feature map. The proposed algorithm is optimized from the initial pose by minimizing Mahalanobis distance errors between features from the query image and the map to improve accuracy. To verify that the localization accuracy is improved, the proposed algorithm is compared with the conventional algorithm in a simulation and realenvironments.

Linear Subspace Ranking Hashing for Cross-Modal Retrieval.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Kai; Qi, Guo-Jun; Ye, Jun; Hua, Kien A

2017-09-01

Hashing has attracted a great deal of research in recent years due to its effectiveness for the retrieval and indexing of large-scale high-dimensional multimedia data. In this paper, we propose a novel ranking-based hashing framework that maps data from different modalities into a common Hamming space where the cross-modal similarity can be measured using Hamming distance. Unlike existing cross-modal hashing algorithms where the learned hash functions are binary space partitioning functions, such as the sign and threshold function, the proposed hashing scheme takes advantage of a new class of hash functions closely related to rank correlation measures which are known to be scale-invariant, numerically stable, and highly nonlinear. Specifically, we jointly learn two groups of linear subspaces, one for each modality, so that features' ranking orders in different linear subspaces maximally preserve the cross-modal similarities. We show that the ranking-based hash function has a natural probabilistic approximation which transforms the original highly discontinuous optimization problem into one that can be efficiently solved using simple gradient descent algorithms. The proposed hashing framework is also flexible in the sense that the optimization procedures are not tied up to any specific form of loss function, which is typical for existing cross-modal hashing methods, but rather we can flexibly accommodate different loss functions with minimal changes to the learning steps. We demonstrate through extensive experiments on four widely-used real-world multimodal datasets that the proposed cross-modal hashing method can achieve competitive performance against several state-of-the-arts with only moderate training and testing time.

A Hybrid Distance-Based Ideal-Seeking Consensus Ranking Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Madjid Tavana

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Ordinal consensus ranking problems have received much attention in the management science literature. A problem arises in situations where a group of k decision makers (DMs is asked to rank order n alternatives. The question is how to combine the DM rankings into one consensus ranking. Several different approaches have been suggested to aggregate DM responses into a compromise or consensus ranking; however, the similarity of consensus rankings generated by the different algorithms is largely unknown. In this paper, we propose a new hybrid distance-based ideal-seeking consensus ranking model (DCM. The proposed hybrid model combines parts of the two commonly used consensus ranking techniques of Beck and Lin (1983 and Cook and Kress (1985 into an intuitive and computationally simple model. We illustrate our method and then run a Monte Carlo simulation across a range of k and n to compare the similarity of the consensus rankings generated by our method with the best-known method of Borda and Kendall (Kendall 1962 and the two methods proposed by Beck and Lin (1983 and Cook and Kress (1985. DCM and Beck and Lin's method yielded the most similar consensus rankings, whereas the Cook-Kress method and the Borda-Kendall method yielded the least similar consensus rankings.

Probabilistic Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Finn Verner; Lauritzen, Steffen Lilholt

2001-01-01

This article describes the basic ideas and algorithms behind specification and inference in probabilistic networks based on directed acyclic graphs, undirected graphs, and chain graphs.......This article describes the basic ideas and algorithms behind specification and inference in probabilistic networks based on directed acyclic graphs, undirected graphs, and chain graphs....

An Individual-based Probabilistic Model for Fish Stock Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Federico Buti

2010-08-01

Full Text Available We define an individual-based probabilistic model of a sole (Solea solea behaviour. The individual model is given in terms of an Extended Probabilistic Discrete Timed Automaton (EPDTA, a new formalism that is introduced in the paper and that is shown to be interpretable as a Markov decision process. A given EPDTA model can be probabilistically model-checked by giving a suitable translation into syntax accepted by existing model-checkers. In order to simulate the dynamics of a given population of soles in different environmental scenarios, an agent-based simulation environment is defined in which each agent implements the behaviour of the given EPDTA model. By varying the probabilities and the characteristic functions embedded in the EPDTA model it is possible to represent different scenarios and to tune the model itself by comparing the results of the simulations with real data about the sole stock in the North Adriatic sea, available from the recent project SoleMon. The simulator is presented and made available for its adaptation to other species.

A sampling-based approach to probabilistic pursuit evasion

KAUST Repository

Mahadevan, Aditya; Amato, Nancy M.

2012-01-01

Probabilistic roadmaps (PRMs) are a sampling-based approach to motion-planning that encodes feasible paths through the environment using a graph created from a subset of valid positions. Prior research has shown that PRMs can be augmented

Semiparametric Gaussian copula models : Geometry and efficient rank-based estimation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Segers, J.; van den Akker, R.; Werker, B.J.M.

2014-01-01

We propose, for multivariate Gaussian copula models with unknown margins and structured correlation matrices, a rank-based, semiparametrically efficient estimator for the Euclidean copula parameter. This estimator is defined as a one-step update of a rank-based pilot estimator in the direction of

Learning Probabilistic Logic Models from Probabilistic Examples.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jianzhong; Muggleton, Stephen; Santos, José

2008-10-01

We revisit an application developed originally using abductive Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) for modeling inhibition in metabolic networks. The example data was derived from studies of the effects of toxins on rats using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) time-trace analysis of their biofluids together with background knowledge representing a subset of the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG). We now apply two Probabilistic ILP (PILP) approaches - abductive Stochastic Logic Programs (SLPs) and PRogramming In Statistical modeling (PRISM) to the application. Both approaches support abductive learning and probability predictions. Abductive SLPs are a PILP framework that provides possible worlds semantics to SLPs through abduction. Instead of learning logic models from non-probabilistic examples as done in ILP, the PILP approach applied in this paper is based on a general technique for introducing probability labels within a standard scientific experimental setting involving control and treated data. Our results demonstrate that the PILP approach provides a way of learning probabilistic logic models from probabilistic examples, and the PILP models learned from probabilistic examples lead to a significant decrease in error accompanied by improved insight from the learned results compared with the PILP models learned from non-probabilistic examples.

Entropy-based Probabilistic Fatigue Damage Prognosis and Algorithmic Performance Comparison

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — In this paper, a maximum entropy-based general framework for probabilistic fatigue damage prognosis is investigated. The proposed methodology is based on an...

Entropy-based probabilistic fatigue damage prognosis and algorithmic performance comparison

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — In this paper, a maximum entropy-based general framework for probabilistic fatigue damage prognosis is investigated. The proposed methodology is based on an...

Weighted Discriminative Dictionary Learning based on Low-rank Representation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Heyou; Zheng, Hao

2017-01-01

Low-rank representation has been widely used in the field of pattern classification, especially when both training and testing images are corrupted with large noise. Dictionary plays an important role in low-rank representation. With respect to the semantic dictionary, the optimal representation matrix should be block-diagonal. However, traditional low-rank representation based dictionary learning methods cannot effectively exploit the discriminative information between data and dictionary. To address this problem, this paper proposed weighted discriminative dictionary learning based on low-rank representation, where a weighted representation regularization term is constructed. The regularization associates label information of both training samples and dictionary atoms, and encourages to generate a discriminative representation with class-wise block-diagonal structure, which can further improve the classification performance where both training and testing images are corrupted with large noise. Experimental results demonstrate advantages of the proposed method over the state-of-the-art methods. (paper)

A network-based dynamical ranking system for competitive sports

Science.gov (United States)

Motegi, Shun; Masuda, Naoki

2012-12-01

From the viewpoint of networks, a ranking system for players or teams in sports is equivalent to a centrality measure for sports networks, whereby a directed link represents the result of a single game. Previously proposed network-based ranking systems are derived from static networks, i.e., aggregation of the results of games over time. However, the score of a player (or team) fluctuates over time. Defeating a renowned player in the peak performance is intuitively more rewarding than defeating the same player in other periods. To account for this factor, we propose a dynamic variant of such a network-based ranking system and apply it to professional men's tennis data. We derive a set of linear online update equations for the score of each player. The proposed ranking system predicts the outcome of the future games with a higher accuracy than the static counterparts.

Logic-based aggregation methods for ranking student applicants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milošević Pavle

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we present logic-based aggregation models used for ranking student applicants and we compare them with a number of existing aggregation methods, each more complex than the previous one. The proposed models aim to include depen- dencies in the data using Logical aggregation (LA. LA is a aggregation method based on interpolative Boolean algebra (IBA, a consistent multi-valued realization of Boolean algebra. This technique is used for a Boolean consistent aggregation of attributes that are logically dependent. The comparison is performed in the case of student applicants for master programs at the University of Belgrade. We have shown that LA has some advantages over other presented aggregation methods. The software realization of all applied aggregation methods is also provided. This paper may be of interest not only for student ranking, but also for similar problems of ranking people e.g. employees, team members, etc.

The analysis of probability task completion; Taxonomy of probabilistic thinking-based across gender in elementary school students

Science.gov (United States)

Sari, Dwi Ivayana; Budayasa, I. Ketut; Juniati, Dwi

2017-08-01

Formulation of mathematical learning goals now is not only oriented on cognitive product, but also leads to cognitive process, which is probabilistic thinking. Probabilistic thinking is needed by students to make a decision. Elementary school students are required to develop probabilistic thinking as foundation to learn probability at higher level. A framework of probabilistic thinking of students had been developed by using SOLO taxonomy, which consists of prestructural probabilistic thinking, unistructural probabilistic thinking, multistructural probabilistic thinking and relational probabilistic thinking. This study aimed to analyze of probability task completion based on taxonomy of probabilistic thinking. The subjects were two students of fifth grade; boy and girl. Subjects were selected by giving test of mathematical ability and then based on high math ability. Subjects were given probability tasks consisting of sample space, probability of an event and probability comparison. The data analysis consisted of categorization, reduction, interpretation and conclusion. Credibility of data used time triangulation. The results was level of boy's probabilistic thinking in completing probability tasks indicated multistructural probabilistic thinking, while level of girl's probabilistic thinking in completing probability tasks indicated unistructural probabilistic thinking. The results indicated that level of boy's probabilistic thinking was higher than level of girl's probabilistic thinking. The results could contribute to curriculum developer in developing probability learning goals for elementary school students. Indeed, teachers could teach probability with regarding gender difference.

Probabilistic Accident Progression Analysis with application to a LMFBR design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamali, K.M.

1982-01-01

A method for probabilistic analysis of accident sequences in nuclear power plant systems referred to as ''Probabilistic Accident Progression Analysis'' (PAPA) is described. Distinctive features of PAPA include: (1) definition and analysis of initiator-dependent accident sequences on the component level; (2) a new fault-tree simplification technique; (3) a new technique for assessment of the effect of uncertainties in the failure probabilities in the probabilistic ranking of accident sequences; (4) techniques for quantification of dependent failures of similar components, including an iterative technique for high-population components. The methodology is applied to the Shutdown Heat Removal System (SHRS) of the Clinch River Breeder Reactor Plant during its short-term (0 -2 . Major contributors to this probability are the initiators loss of main feedwater system, loss of offsite power, and normal shutdown

GeoSearcher: Location-Based Ranking of Search Engine Results.

Science.gov (United States)

Watters, Carolyn; Amoudi, Ghada

2003-01-01

Discussion of Web queries with geospatial dimensions focuses on an algorithm that assigns location coordinates dynamically to Web sites based on the URL. Describes a prototype search system that uses the algorithm to re-rank search engine results for queries with a geospatial dimension, thus providing an alternative ranking order for search engine…

International Conference on Robust Rank-Based and Nonparametric Methods

CERN Document Server

McKean, Joseph

2016-01-01

The contributors to this volume include many of the distinguished researchers in this area. Many of these scholars have collaborated with Joseph McKean to develop underlying theory for these methods, obtain small sample corrections, and develop efficient algorithms for their computation. The papers cover the scope of the area, including robust nonparametric rank-based procedures through Bayesian and big data rank-based analyses. Areas of application include biostatistics and spatial areas. Over the last 30 years, robust rank-based and nonparametric methods have developed considerably. These procedures generalize traditional Wilcoxon-type methods for one- and two-sample location problems. Research into these procedures has culminated in complete analyses for many of the models used in practice including linear, generalized linear, mixed, and nonlinear models. Settings are both multivariate and univariate. With the development of R packages in these areas, computation of these procedures is easily shared with r...

Bibliometric Rankings of Journals Based on the Thomson Reuters Citations Database

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

2015-01-01

markdownabstract__Abstract__ Virtually all rankings of journals are based on citations, including self citations by journals and individual academics. The gold standard for bibliometric rankings based on citations data is the widely-used Thomson Reuters Web of Science (2014) citations database,

Bibliometric Rankings of Journals based on the Thomson Reuters Citations Database

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

2015-01-01

markdownabstract__Abstract__ Virtually all rankings of journals are based on citations, including self citations by journals and individual academics. The gold standard for bibliometric rankings based on citations data is the widely-used Thomson Reuters Web of Science (2014) citations database,

Photometric redshift estimation via deep learning. Generalized and pre-classification-less, image based, fully probabilistic redshifts

Science.gov (United States)

D'Isanto, A.; Polsterer, K. L.

2018-01-01

Context. The need to analyze the available large synoptic multi-band surveys drives the development of new data-analysis methods. Photometric redshift estimation is one field of application where such new methods improved the results, substantially. Up to now, the vast majority of applied redshift estimation methods have utilized photometric features. Aims: We aim to develop a method to derive probabilistic photometric redshift directly from multi-band imaging data, rendering pre-classification of objects and feature extraction obsolete. Methods: A modified version of a deep convolutional network was combined with a mixture density network. The estimates are expressed as Gaussian mixture models representing the probability density functions (PDFs) in the redshift space. In addition to the traditional scores, the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and the probability integral transform (PIT) were applied as performance criteria. We have adopted a feature based random forest and a plain mixture density network to compare performances on experiments with data from SDSS (DR9). Results: We show that the proposed method is able to predict redshift PDFs independently from the type of source, for example galaxies, quasars or stars. Thereby the prediction performance is better than both presented reference methods and is comparable to results from the literature. Conclusions: The presented method is extremely general and allows us to solve of any kind of probabilistic regression problems based on imaging data, for example estimating metallicity or star formation rate of galaxies. This kind of methodology is tremendously important for the next generation of surveys.

A stable systemic risk ranking in China's banking sector: Based on principal component analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Libing; Xiao, Binqing; Yu, Honghai; You, Qixing

2018-02-01

In this paper, we compare five popular systemic risk rankings, and apply principal component analysis (PCA) model to provide a stable systemic risk ranking for the Chinese banking sector. Our empirical results indicate that five methods suggest vastly different systemic risk rankings for the same bank, while the combined systemic risk measure based on PCA provides a reliable ranking. Furthermore, according to factor loadings of the first component, PCA combined ranking is mainly based on fundamentals instead of market price data. We clearly find that price-based rankings are not as practical a method as fundamentals-based ones. This PCA combined ranking directly shows systemic risk contributions of each bank for banking supervision purpose and reminds banks to prevent and cope with the financial crisis in advance.

Probabilistic Decision Based Block Partitioning for Future Video Coding

KAUST Repository

Wang, Zhao; Wang, Shiqi; Zhang, Jian; Wang, Shanshe; Ma, Siwei

2017-01-01

, the mode decision problem is casted into a probabilistic framework to select the final partition based on the confidence interval decision strategy. Experimental results show that the proposed CIET algorithm can speed up QTBT block partitioning structure

A note on probabilistic models over strings: the linear algebra approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Bouchard-Côté, Alexandre

2013-12-01

Probabilistic models over strings have played a key role in developing methods that take into consideration indels as phylogenetically informative events. There is an extensive literature on using automata and transducers on phylogenies to do inference on these probabilistic models, in which an important theoretical question is the complexity of computing the normalization of a class of string-valued graphical models. This question has been investigated using tools from combinatorics, dynamic programming, and graph theory, and has practical applications in Bayesian phylogenetics. In this work, we revisit this theoretical question from a different point of view, based on linear algebra. The main contribution is a set of results based on this linear algebra view that facilitate the analysis and design of inference algorithms on string-valued graphical models. As an illustration, we use this method to give a new elementary proof of a known result on the complexity of inference on the "TKF91" model, a well-known probabilistic model over strings. Compared to previous work, our proving method is easier to extend to other models, since it relies on a novel weak condition, triangular transducers, which is easy to establish in practice. The linear algebra view provides a concise way of describing transducer algorithms and their compositions, opens the possibility of transferring fast linear algebra libraries (for example, based on GPUs), as well as low rank matrix approximation methods, to string-valued inference problems.

Online probabilistic learning with an ensemble of forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Thorey, Jean; Mallet, Vivien; Chaussin, Christophe

2016-04-01

Our objective is to produce a calibrated weighted ensemble to forecast a univariate time series. In addition to a meteorological ensemble of forecasts, we rely on observations or analyses of the target variable. The celebrated Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) is used to evaluate the probabilistic forecasts. However applying the CRPS on weighted empirical distribution functions (deriving from the weighted ensemble) may introduce a bias because of which minimizing the CRPS does not produce the optimal weights. Thus we propose an unbiased version of the CRPS which relies on clusters of members and is strictly proper. We adapt online learning methods for the minimization of the CRPS. These methods generate the weights associated to the members in the forecasted empirical distribution function. The weights are updated before each forecast step using only past observations and forecasts. Our learning algorithms provide the theoretical guarantee that, in the long run, the CRPS of the weighted forecasts is at least as good as the CRPS of any weighted ensemble with weights constant in time. In particular, the performance of our forecast is better than that of any subset ensemble with uniform weights. A noteworthy advantage of our algorithm is that it does not require any assumption on the distributions of the observations and forecasts, both for the application and for the theoretical guarantee to hold. As application example on meteorological forecasts for photovoltaic production integration, we show that our algorithm generates a calibrated probabilistic forecast, with significant performance improvements on probabilistic diagnostic tools (the CRPS, the reliability diagram and the rank histogram).

Spectral-based features ranking for gamelan instruments identification using filter techniques

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diah P Wulandari

2013-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we describe an approach of spectral-based features ranking for Javanese gamelaninstruments identification using filter techniques. The model extracted spectral-based features set of thesignal using Short Time Fourier Transform (STFT. The rank of the features was determined using the fivealgorithms; namely ReliefF, Chi-Squared, Information Gain, Gain Ratio, and Symmetric Uncertainty. Then,we tested the ranked features by cross validation using Support Vector Machine (SVM. The experimentshowed that Gain Ratio algorithm gave the best result, it yielded accuracy of 98.93%.

On the ranking of chemicals based on their PBT characteristics: comparison of different ranking methodologies using selected POPs as an illustrative example.

Science.gov (United States)

Sailaukhanuly, Yerbolat; Zhakupbekova, Arai; Amutova, Farida; Carlsen, Lars

2013-01-01

Knowledge of the environmental behavior of chemicals is a fundamental part of the risk assessment process. The present paper discusses various methods of ranking of a series of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) according to the persistence, bioaccumulation and toxicity (PBT) characteristics. Traditionally ranking has been done as an absolute (total) ranking applying various multicriteria data analysis methods like simple additive ranking (SAR) or various utility functions (UFs) based rankings. An attractive alternative to these ranking methodologies appears to be partial order ranking (POR). The present paper compares different ranking methods like SAR, UF and POR. Significant discrepancies between the rankings are noted and it is concluded that partial order ranking, as a method without any pre-assumptions concerning possible relation between the single parameters, appears as the most attractive ranking methodology. In addition to the initial ranking partial order methodology offers a wide variety of analytical tools to elucidate the interplay between the objects to be ranked and the ranking parameters. In the present study is included an analysis of the relative importance of the single P, B and T parameters. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A sampling-based approach to probabilistic pursuit evasion

KAUST Repository

Mahadevan, Aditya

2012-05-01

Probabilistic roadmaps (PRMs) are a sampling-based approach to motion-planning that encodes feasible paths through the environment using a graph created from a subset of valid positions. Prior research has shown that PRMs can be augmented with useful information to model interesting scenarios related to multi-agent interaction and coordination. © 2012 IEEE.

Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Qin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cui, Mingjian [University of Texas at Dallas; Feng, Cong [University of Texas at Dallas; Wang, Zhenke [University of Texas at Dallas; Zhang, Jie [University of Texas at Dallas

2018-02-01

Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power and currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start-time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

An empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Eden, Jonathan; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Hawkins, Ed; Suckling, Emma

2016-04-01

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

Probabilistic logics and probabilistic networks

CERN Document Server

Haenni, Rolf; Wheeler, Gregory; Williamson, Jon; Andrews, Jill

2014-01-01

Probabilistic Logic and Probabilistic Networks presents a groundbreaking framework within which various approaches to probabilistic logic naturally fit. Additionally, the text shows how to develop computationally feasible methods to mesh with this framework.

Research on B Cell Algorithm for Learning to Rank Method Based on Parallel Strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Yuling; Zhang, Hongxian

2016-01-01

For the purposes of information retrieval, users must find highly relevant documents from within a system (and often a quite large one comprised of many individual documents) based on input query. Ranking the documents according to their relevance within the system to meet user needs is a challenging endeavor, and a hot research topic-there already exist several rank-learning methods based on machine learning techniques which can generate ranking functions automatically. This paper proposes a parallel B cell algorithm, RankBCA, for rank learning which utilizes a clonal selection mechanism based on biological immunity. The novel algorithm is compared with traditional rank-learning algorithms through experimentation and shown to outperform the others in respect to accuracy, learning time, and convergence rate; taken together, the experimental results show that the proposed algorithm indeed effectively and rapidly identifies optimal ranking functions.

Confluence reduction for probabilistic systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Timmer, Mark; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

In this presentation we introduce a novel technique for state space reduction of probabilistic specifications, based on a newly developed notion of confluence for probabilistic automata. We proved that this reduction preserves branching probabilistic bisimulation and can be applied on-the-fly. To

Ranking nodes in growing networks: When PageRank fails.

Science.gov (United States)

Mariani, Manuel Sebastian; Medo, Matúš; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

2015-11-10

PageRank is arguably the most popular ranking algorithm which is being applied in real systems ranging from information to biological and infrastructure networks. Despite its outstanding popularity and broad use in different areas of science, the relation between the algorithm's efficacy and properties of the network on which it acts has not yet been fully understood. We study here PageRank's performance on a network model supported by real data, and show that realistic temporal effects make PageRank fail in individuating the most valuable nodes for a broad range of model parameters. Results on real data are in qualitative agreement with our model-based findings. This failure of PageRank reveals that the static approach to information filtering is inappropriate for a broad class of growing systems, and suggest that time-dependent algorithms that are based on the temporal linking patterns of these systems are needed to better rank the nodes.

Ranking of risk significant components for the Davis-Besse Component Cooling Water System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seniuk, P.J.

1994-01-01

Utilities that run nuclear power plants are responsible for testing pumps and valves, as specified by the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) that are required for safe shutdown, mitigating the consequences of an accident, and maintaining the plant in a safe condition. These inservice components are tested according to ASME Codes, either the earlier requirements of the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Section XI, or the more recent requirements of the ASME Operation and Maintenance Code, Section IST. These codes dictate test techniques and frequencies regardless of the component failure rate or significance of failure consequences. A probabilistic risk assessment or probabilistic safety assessment may be used to evaluate the component importance for inservice test (IST) risk ranking, which is a combination of failure rate and failure consequences. Resources for component testing during the normal quarterly verification test or postmaintenance test are expensive. Normal quarterly testing may cause component unavailability. Outage testing may increase outage cost with no real benefit. This paper identifies the importance ranking of risk significant components in the Davis-Besse component cooling water system. Identifying the ranking of these risk significant IST components adds technical insight for developing the appropriate test technique and test frequency

Fuzzy-set based contingency ranking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hsu, Y.Y.; Kuo, H.C.

1992-01-01

In this paper, a new approach based on fuzzy set theory is developed for contingency ranking of Taiwan power system. To examine whether a power system can remain in a secure and reliable operating state under contingency conditions, those contingency cases that will result in loss-of-load, loss-of generation, or islanding are first identified. Then 1P-1Q iteration of fast decoupled load flow is preformed to estimate post-contingent quantities (line flows, bus voltages) for other contingency cases. Based on system operators' past experience, each post-contingent quantity is assigned a degree of severity according to the potential damage that could be imposed on the power system by the quantity, should the contingency occurs. An approach based on fuzzy set theory is developed to deal with the imprecision of linguistic terms

Scheduling for Multiuser MIMO Downlink Channels with Ranking-Based Feedback

Science.gov (United States)

Kountouris, Marios; Sälzer, Thomas; Gesbert, David

2008-12-01

We consider a multi-antenna broadcast channel with more single-antenna receivers than transmit antennas and partial channel state information at the transmitter (CSIT). We propose a novel type of CSIT representation for the purpose of user selection, coined as ranking-based feedback. Each user calculates and feeds back the rank, an integer between 1 and W + 1, of its instantaneous channel quality information (CQI) among a set of W past CQI measurements. Apart from reducing significantly the required feedback load, ranking-based feedback enables the transmitter to select users that are on the highest peak (quantile) with respect to their own channel distribution, independently of the distribution of other users. It can also be shown that this feedback metric can restore temporal fairness in heterogeneous networks, in which users' channels are not identically distributed and mobile terminals experience different average signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The performance of a system that performs user selection using ranking-based CSIT in the context of random opportunistic beamforming is analyzed, and we provide design guidelines on the number of required past CSIT samples and the impact of finite W on average throughput. Simulation results show that feedback reduction of order of 40-50% can be achieved with negligible decrease in system throughput.

Manifold Based Low-rank Regularization for Image Restoration and Semi-supervised Learning

OpenAIRE

Lai, Rongjie; Li, Jia

2017-01-01

Low-rank structures play important role in recent advances of many problems in image science and data science. As a natural extension of low-rank structures for data with nonlinear structures, the concept of the low-dimensional manifold structure has been considered in many data processing problems. Inspired by this concept, we consider a manifold based low-rank regularization as a linear approximation of manifold dimension. This regularization is less restricted than the global low-rank regu...

A comprehensive probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, C.; Qin, T. X.; Jiang, B.; Huang, C.

2018-02-01

Oil pipelines network is one of the most important facilities of energy transportation. But oil pipelines network accident may result in serious disasters. Some analysis models for these accidents have been established mainly based on three methods, including event-tree, accident simulation and Bayesian network. Among these methods, Bayesian network is suitable for probabilistic analysis. But not all the important influencing factors are considered and the deployment rule of the factors has not been established. This paper proposed a probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network. Most of the important influencing factors, including the key environment condition and emergency response are considered in this model. Moreover, the paper also introduces a deployment rule for these factors. The model can be used in probabilistic analysis and sensitive analysis of oil pipelines network accident.

Visualizing Uncertainty for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting based on Reforecast Analogs

Science.gov (United States)

Pelorosso, Leandro; Diehl, Alexandra; Matković, Krešimir; Delrieux, Claudio; Ruiz, Juan; Gröeller, M. Eduard; Bruckner, Stefan

2016-04-01

Numerical weather forecasts are prone to uncertainty coming from inaccuracies in the initial and boundary conditions and lack of precision in numerical models. Ensemble of forecasts partially addresses these problems by considering several runs of the numerical model. Each forecast is generated with different initial and boundary conditions and different model configurations [GR05]. The ensembles can be expressed as probabilistic forecasts, which have proven to be very effective in the decision-making processes [DE06]. The ensemble of forecasts represents only some of the possible future atmospheric states, usually underestimating the degree of uncertainty in the predictions [KAL03, PH06]. Hamill and Whitaker [HW06] introduced the "Reforecast Analog Regression" (RAR) technique to overcome the limitations of ensemble forecasting. This technique produces probabilistic predictions based on the analysis of historical forecasts and observations. Visual analytics provides tools for processing, visualizing, and exploring data to get new insights and discover hidden information patterns in an interactive exchange between the user and the application [KMS08]. In this work, we introduce Albero, a visual analytics solution for probabilistic weather forecasting based on the RAR technique. Albero targets at least two different type of users: "forecasters", who are meteorologists working in operational weather forecasting and "researchers", who work in the construction of numerical prediction models. Albero is an efficient tool for analyzing precipitation forecasts, allowing forecasters to make and communicate quick decisions. Our solution facilitates the analysis of a set of probabilistic forecasts, associated statistical data, observations and uncertainty. A dashboard with small-multiples of probabilistic forecasts allows the forecasters to analyze at a glance the distribution of probabilities as a function of time, space, and magnitude. It provides the user with a more

A passage retrieval method based on probabilistic information retrieval model and UMLS concepts in biomedical question answering.

Science.gov (United States)

Sarrouti, Mourad; Ouatik El Alaoui, Said

2017-04-01

Passage retrieval, the identification of top-ranked passages that may contain the answer for a given biomedical question, is a crucial component for any biomedical question answering (QA) system. Passage retrieval in open-domain QA is a longstanding challenge widely studied over the last decades. However, it still requires further efforts in biomedical QA. In this paper, we present a new biomedical passage retrieval method based on Stanford CoreNLP sentence/passage length, probabilistic information retrieval (IR) model and UMLS concepts. In the proposed method, we first use our document retrieval system based on PubMed search engine and UMLS similarity to retrieve relevant documents to a given biomedical question. We then take the abstracts from the retrieved documents and use Stanford CoreNLP for sentence splitter to make a set of sentences, i.e., candidate passages. Using stemmed words and UMLS concepts as features for the BM25 model, we finally compute the similarity scores between the biomedical question and each of the candidate passages and keep the N top-ranked ones. Experimental evaluations performed on large standard datasets, provided by the BioASQ challenge, show that the proposed method achieves good performances compared with the current state-of-the-art methods. The proposed method significantly outperforms the current state-of-the-art methods by an average of 6.84% in terms of mean average precision (MAP). We have proposed an efficient passage retrieval method which can be used to retrieve relevant passages in biomedical QA systems with high mean average precision. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Eden, J. M.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Hawkins, E.; Suckling, E. B.

2015-12-01

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

Ranking structures and rank-rank correlations of countries: The FIFA and UEFA cases

Science.gov (United States)

Ausloos, Marcel; Cloots, Rudi; Gadomski, Adam; Vitanov, Nikolay K.

2014-04-01

Ranking of agents competing with each other in complex systems may lead to paradoxes according to the pre-chosen different measures. A discussion is presented on such rank-rank, similar or not, correlations based on the case of European countries ranked by UEFA and FIFA from different soccer competitions. The first question to be answered is whether an empirical and simple law is obtained for such (self-) organizations of complex sociological systems with such different measuring schemes. It is found that the power law form is not the best description contrary to many modern expectations. The stretched exponential is much more adequate. Moreover, it is found that the measuring rules lead to some inner structures in both cases.

RANWAR: rank-based weighted association rule mining from gene expression and methylation data.

Science.gov (United States)

Mallik, Saurav; Mukhopadhyay, Anirban; Maulik, Ujjwal

2015-01-01

Ranking of association rules is currently an interesting topic in data mining and bioinformatics. The huge number of evolved rules of items (or, genes) by association rule mining (ARM) algorithms makes confusion to the decision maker. In this article, we propose a weighted rule-mining technique (say, RANWAR or rank-based weighted association rule-mining) to rank the rules using two novel rule-interestingness measures, viz., rank-based weighted condensed support (wcs) and weighted condensed confidence (wcc) measures to bypass the problem. These measures are basically depended on the rank of items (genes). Using the rank, we assign weight to each item. RANWAR generates much less number of frequent itemsets than the state-of-the-art association rule mining algorithms. Thus, it saves time of execution of the algorithm. We run RANWAR on gene expression and methylation datasets. The genes of the top rules are biologically validated by Gene Ontologies (GOs) and KEGG pathway analyses. Many top ranked rules extracted from RANWAR that hold poor ranks in traditional Apriori, are highly biologically significant to the related diseases. Finally, the top rules evolved from RANWAR, that are not in Apriori, are reported.

A probabilistic EAC management of Ni-base Alloy in PWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Tae Hyun; Hwang, Il Soon

2009-01-01

Material aging is a principle cause for the aging of engineering systems that can lead to reduction in reliability and continued safety and increase in the cost of operation and maintenance. As the nuclear power plants get older, aging becomes an issue, because aging degradation can affect the structural integrity of systems and components in the same manner. To ensure the safe operation of nuclear power plants, it is essential to assess the effects of age-related degradation of plant structures, systems, and components. In this study, we propose a framework for probabilistic assessment of primary pressure-boundary components, with particular attention to Environmentally Assisted Cracking (EAC) of pipings and nozzles on Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). The framework on EAC management is targeted for the degradation prediction using mechanism and probabilistic treatment and probabilistic assessment of defect detection and sizing. Also, the EAC-induced failure process has examined the effect of uncertainties in key parameters in models for EAC growth model, final fracture and inspection, based on a sensitivity study and updating using Bayesian inference approach. (author)

Memristive Probabilistic Computing

KAUST Repository

Alahmadi, Hamzah

2017-10-01

In the era of Internet of Things and Big Data, unconventional techniques are rising to accommodate the large size of data and the resource constraints. New computing structures are advancing based on non-volatile memory technologies and different processing paradigms. Additionally, the intrinsic resiliency of current applications leads to the development of creative techniques in computations. In those applications, approximate computing provides a perfect fit to optimize the energy efficiency while compromising on the accuracy. In this work, we build probabilistic adders based on stochastic memristor. Probabilistic adders are analyzed with respect of the stochastic behavior of the underlying memristors. Multiple adder implementations are investigated and compared. The memristive probabilistic adder provides a different approach from the typical approximate CMOS adders. Furthermore, it allows for a high area saving and design exibility between the performance and power saving. To reach a similar performance level as approximate CMOS adders, the memristive adder achieves 60% of power saving. An image-compression application is investigated using the memristive probabilistic adders with the performance and the energy trade-off.

Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Qin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cui, Mingjian [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Feng, Cong [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Wang, Zhenke [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Zhang, Jie [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States)

2017-08-31

Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power, and they are currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

Staged decision making based on probabilistic forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Booister, Nikéh; Verkade, Jan; Werner, Micha; Cranston, Michael; Cumiskey, Lydia; Zevenbergen, Chris

2016-04-01

Flood forecasting systems reduce, but cannot eliminate uncertainty about the future. Probabilistic forecasts explicitly show that uncertainty remains. However, as - compared to deterministic forecasts - a dimension is added ('probability' or 'likelihood'), with this added dimension decision making is made slightly more complicated. A technique of decision support is the cost-loss approach, which defines whether or not to issue a warning or implement mitigation measures (risk-based method). With the cost-loss method a warning will be issued when the ratio of the response costs to the damage reduction is less than or equal to the probability of the possible flood event. This cost-loss method is not widely used, because it motivates based on only economic values and is a technique that is relatively static (no reasoning, yes/no decision). Nevertheless it has high potential to improve risk-based decision making based on probabilistic flood forecasting because there are no other methods known that deal with probabilities in decision making. The main aim of this research was to explore the ways of making decision making based on probabilities with the cost-loss method better applicable in practice. The exploration began by identifying other situations in which decisions were taken based on uncertain forecasts or predictions. These cases spanned a range of degrees of uncertainty: from known uncertainty to deep uncertainty. Based on the types of uncertainties, concepts of dealing with situations and responses were analysed and possible applicable concepts where chosen. Out of this analysis the concepts of flexibility and robustness appeared to be fitting to the existing method. Instead of taking big decisions with bigger consequences at once, the idea is that actions and decisions are cut-up into smaller pieces and finally the decision to implement is made based on economic costs of decisions and measures and the reduced effect of flooding. The more lead-time there is in

Ranking nodes in growing networks: When PageRank fails

Science.gov (United States)

Mariani, Manuel Sebastian; Medo, Matúš; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

2015-11-01

PageRank is arguably the most popular ranking algorithm which is being applied in real systems ranging from information to biological and infrastructure networks. Despite its outstanding popularity and broad use in different areas of science, the relation between the algorithm’s efficacy and properties of the network on which it acts has not yet been fully understood. We study here PageRank’s performance on a network model supported by real data, and show that realistic temporal effects make PageRank fail in individuating the most valuable nodes for a broad range of model parameters. Results on real data are in qualitative agreement with our model-based findings. This failure of PageRank reveals that the static approach to information filtering is inappropriate for a broad class of growing systems, and suggest that time-dependent algorithms that are based on the temporal linking patterns of these systems are needed to better rank the nodes.

Probabilistic Data Modeling and Querying for Location-Based Data Warehouses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Timko, Igor; Dyreson, Curtis E.; Pedersen, Torben Bach

Motivated by the increasing need to handle complex, dynamic, uncertain multidimensional data in location-based warehouses, this paper proposes a novel probabilistic data model that can address the complexities of such data. The model provides a foundation for handling complex hierarchical and unc...

Probabilistic Data Modeling and Querying for Location-Based Data Warehouses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Timko, Igor; Dyreson, Curtis E.; Pedersen, Torben Bach

2005-01-01

Motivated by the increasing need to handle complex, dynamic, uncertain multidimensional data in location-based warehouses, this paper proposes a novel probabilistic data model that can address the complexities of such data. The model provides a foundation for handling complex hierarchical and unc...

Generalized outcome-based strategy classification: comparing deterministic and probabilistic choice models.

Science.gov (United States)

Hilbig, Benjamin E; Moshagen, Morten

2014-12-01

Model comparisons are a vital tool for disentangling which of several strategies a decision maker may have used--that is, which cognitive processes may have governed observable choice behavior. However, previous methodological approaches have been limited to models (i.e., decision strategies) with deterministic choice rules. As such, psychologically plausible choice models--such as evidence-accumulation and connectionist models--that entail probabilistic choice predictions could not be considered appropriately. To overcome this limitation, we propose a generalization of Bröder and Schiffer's (Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 19, 361-380, 2003) choice-based classification method, relying on (1) parametric order constraints in the multinomial processing tree framework to implement probabilistic models and (2) minimum description length for model comparison. The advantages of the generalized approach are demonstrated through recovery simulations and an experiment. In explaining previous methods and our generalization, we maintain a nontechnical focus--so as to provide a practical guide for comparing both deterministic and probabilistic choice models.

Development of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenarios for the city of Tehran

Science.gov (United States)

Zolfaghari, M. R.; Peyghaleh, E.

2016-01-01

This paper presents the methodology and practical example for the application of optimization process to select earthquake scenarios which best represent probabilistic earthquake hazard in a given region. The method is based on simulation of a large dataset of potential earthquakes, representing the long-term seismotectonic characteristics in a given region. The simulation process uses Monte-Carlo simulation and regional seismogenic source parameters to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue consisting of a large number of earthquakes, each characterized with magnitude, location, focal depth and fault characteristics. Such catalogue provides full distributions of events in time, space and size; however, demands large computation power when is used for risk assessment, particularly when other sources of uncertainties are involved in the process. To reduce the number of selected earthquake scenarios, a mixed-integer linear program formulation is developed in this study. This approach results in reduced set of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenario, while maintaining shape of hazard curves and full probabilistic picture by minimizing the error between hazard curves driven by full and reduced sets of synthetic earthquake scenarios. To test the model, the regional seismotectonic and seismogenic characteristics of northern Iran are used to simulate a set of 10,000-year worth of events consisting of some 84,000 earthquakes. The optimization model is then performed multiple times with various input data, taking into account probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran city as the main constrains. The sensitivity of the selected scenarios to the user-specified site/return period error-weight is also assessed. The methodology could enhance run time process for full probabilistic earthquake studies like seismic hazard and risk assessment. The reduced set is the representative of the contributions of all possible earthquakes; however, it requires far less

Result Diversification Based on Query-Specific Cluster Ranking

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J. He (Jiyin); E. Meij; M. de Rijke (Maarten)

2011-01-01

htmlabstractResult diversification is a retrieval strategy for dealing with ambiguous or multi-faceted queries by providing documents that cover as many facets of the query as possible. We propose a result diversification framework based on query-specific clustering and cluster ranking,

Bayesian CP Factorization of Incomplete Tensors with Automatic Rank Determination.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Qibin; Zhang, Liqing; Cichocki, Andrzej

2015-09-01

CANDECOMP/PARAFAC (CP) tensor factorization of incomplete data is a powerful technique for tensor completion through explicitly capturing the multilinear latent factors. The existing CP algorithms require the tensor rank to be manually specified, however, the determination of tensor rank remains a challenging problem especially for CP rank . In addition, existing approaches do not take into account uncertainty information of latent factors, as well as missing entries. To address these issues, we formulate CP factorization using a hierarchical probabilistic model and employ a fully Bayesian treatment by incorporating a sparsity-inducing prior over multiple latent factors and the appropriate hyperpriors over all hyperparameters, resulting in automatic rank determination. To learn the model, we develop an efficient deterministic Bayesian inference algorithm, which scales linearly with data size. Our method is characterized as a tuning parameter-free approach, which can effectively infer underlying multilinear factors with a low-rank constraint, while also providing predictive distributions over missing entries. Extensive simulations on synthetic data illustrate the intrinsic capability of our method to recover the ground-truth of CP rank and prevent the overfitting problem, even when a large amount of entries are missing. Moreover, the results from real-world applications, including image inpainting and facial image synthesis, demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches for both tensor factorization and tensor completion in terms of predictive performance.

APROBA-Plus: A probabilistic tool to evaluate and express uncertainty in hazard characterization and exposure assessment of substances.

Science.gov (United States)

Bokkers, Bas G H; Mengelers, Marcel J; Bakker, Martine I; Chiu, Weihsueh A; Slob, Wout

2017-12-01

To facilitate the application of probabilistic risk assessment, the WHO released the APROBA tool. This tool applies lognormal uncertainty distributions to the different aspects of the hazard characterization, resulting in a probabilistic health-based guidance value. The current paper describes an extension, APROBA-Plus, which combines the output from the probabilistic hazard characterization with the probabilistic exposure to rapidly characterize risk and its uncertainty. The uncertainty in exposure is graphically compared with the uncertainty in the target human dose, i.e. the dose that complies with the specified protection goals. APROBA-Plus is applied to several case studies, resulting in distinct outcomes and illustrating that APROBA-Plus could serve as a standard extension of routine risk assessments. By visualizing the uncertainties, APROBA-Plus provides a more transparent and informative outcome than the more usual deterministic approaches, so that risk managers can make better informed decisions. For example, APROBA-Plus can help in deciding whether risk-reducing measures are warranted or that a refined risk assessment would first be needed. If the latter, the tool can be used to prioritize possible refinements. APROBA-Plus may also be used to rank substances into different risk categories, based on potential health risks without being compromised by different levels of conservatism that may be associated with point estimates of risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ranking Based Locality Sensitive Hashing Enabled Cancelable Biometrics: Index-of-Max Hashing

OpenAIRE

Jin, Zhe; Lai, Yen-Lung; Hwang, Jung-Yeon; Kim, Soohyung; Teoh, Andrew Beng Jin

2017-01-01

In this paper, we propose a ranking based locality sensitive hashing inspired two-factor cancelable biometrics, dubbed "Index-of-Max" (IoM) hashing for biometric template protection. With externally generated random parameters, IoM hashing transforms a real-valued biometric feature vector into discrete index (max ranked) hashed code. We demonstrate two realizations from IoM hashing notion, namely Gaussian Random Projection based and Uniformly Random Permutation based hashing schemes. The disc...

Result diversification based on query-specific cluster ranking

NARCIS (Netherlands)

He, J.; Meij, E.; de Rijke, M.

2011-01-01

Result diversification is a retrieval strategy for dealing with ambiguous or multi-faceted queries by providing documents that cover as many facets of the query as possible. We propose a result diversification framework based on query-specific clustering and cluster ranking, in which diversification

Probabilistic Forecasting of the Wave Energy Flux

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre; Reikard, G.; Bidlot, J.-R.

2012-01-01

Wave energy will certainly have a significant role to play in the deployment of renewable energy generation capacities. As with wind and solar, probabilistic forecasts of wave power over horizons of a few hours to a few days are required for power system operation as well as trading in electricit......% and 70% in terms of Continuous Rank Probability Score (CRPS), depending upon the test case and the lead time. It is finally shown that the log-Normal assumption can be seen as acceptable, even though it may be refined in the future....

Probabilistic numerical discrimination in mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Berkay, Dilara; Çavdaroğlu, Bilgehan; Balcı, Fuat

2016-03-01

Previous studies showed that both human and non-human animals can discriminate between different quantities (i.e., time intervals, numerosities) with a limited level of precision due to their endogenous/representational uncertainty. In addition, other studies have shown that subjects can modulate their temporal categorization responses adaptively by incorporating information gathered regarding probabilistic contingencies into their time-based decisions. Despite the psychophysical similarities between the interval timing and nonverbal counting functions, the sensitivity of count-based decisions to probabilistic information remains an unanswered question. In the current study, we investigated whether exogenous probabilistic information can be integrated into numerosity-based judgments by mice. In the task employed in this study, reward was presented either after few (i.e., 10) or many (i.e., 20) lever presses, the last of which had to be emitted on the lever associated with the corresponding trial type. In order to investigate the effect of probabilistic information on performance in this task, we manipulated the relative frequency of different trial types across different experimental conditions. We evaluated the behavioral performance of the animals under models that differed in terms of their assumptions regarding the cost of responding (e.g., logarithmically increasing vs. no response cost). Our results showed for the first time that mice could adaptively modulate their count-based decisions based on the experienced probabilistic contingencies in directions predicted by optimality.

Suppression of panel flutter of near-space aircraft based on non-probabilistic reliability theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ye-Wei Zhang

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The vibration active control of the composite panels with the uncertain parameters in the hypersonic flow is studied using the non-probabilistic reliability theory. Using the piezoelectric patches as active control actuators, dynamic equations of panel are established by finite element method and Hamilton’s principle. And the control model of panel with uncertain parameters is obtained. According to the non-probabilistic reliability index, and besides being based on H∞ robust control theory and non-probabilistic reliability theory, the non-probabilistic reliability performance function is given. Moreover, the relationships between the robust controller and H∞ performance index and reliability are established. Numerical results show that the control method under the influence of reliability, H∞ performance index, and approaching velocity is effective to the vibration suppression of panel in the whole interval of uncertain parameters.

New public management based on rankings: From plann ing to evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrés Valdez Zepeda

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This article focuses on the emergence and development of a new trend of public affairs and global government management known as ranking-based management. This type of management process is the result of performance measurement usually conducted by an external agent or prestigious institution, which generally uses a methodology based on indicators and audits. It also evaluates the results, achievements and progress in governance, which it ranks on a list on which they are compared against other comparable governments. As a global trend, supported by management rankings this process is not seen as an option, but as a real requirement for public agencies and government, which not only helps them in the process of continuous improvement, but also creates important incentives such as prestige, social recognition, construction and better branding.

Probabilistic safety evaluation: Development of procedures with applications on components used in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dillstroem, P.

2000-12-01

A probabilistic procedure has been developed by SAQ Kontroll AB to calculate two different failure probabilities, P F : Probability of failure, defect size given by NDT/NDE. Probability of failure, defect not detected by NDT/NDE. Based on the procedure, SAQ Kontroll AB has developed a computer program PROPSE (PRObabilistic Program for Safety Evaluation). Within PROPSE, the following features are implemented: Two different algorithms to calculate the probability of failure are included: Simple Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), with an error estimate on P F . First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), with sensitivity factors using the most probable point of failure in a standard normal space. Using these factors, it is possible to rank the parameters within an analysis. Estimation of partial safety factors, given an input target failure probability and characteristic values for fracture toughness, yield strength, tensile strength and defect depth. Extensive validation has been carried out, using the probabilistic computer program STAR6 from Nuclear Electric and the deterministic program SACC from SAQ Kontroll AB. The validation showed that the results from PROPSE were correct, and that the algorithms used in STAR6 were not intended to work for a general problem, when the standard deviation is either 'small' or 'large'. Distributions, to be used in a probabilistic analysis, are discussed. Examples on data to be used are also given

Probabilistic safety evaluation: Development of procedures with applications on components used in nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dillstroem, P. [Det Norske Veritas AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

2000-12-01

A probabilistic procedure has been developed by SAQ Kontroll AB to calculate two different failure probabilities, P{sub F}: Probability of failure, defect size given by NDT/NDE. Probability of failure, defect not detected by NDT/NDE. Based on the procedure, SAQ Kontroll AB has developed a computer program PROPSE (PRObabilistic Program for Safety Evaluation). Within PROPSE, the following features are implemented: Two different algorithms to calculate the probability of failure are included: Simple Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), with an error estimate on P{sub F}. First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), with sensitivity factors using the most probable point of failure in a standard normal space. Using these factors, it is possible to rank the parameters within an analysis. Estimation of partial safety factors, given an input target failure probability and characteristic values for fracture toughness, yield strength, tensile strength and defect depth. Extensive validation has been carried out, using the probabilistic computer program STAR6 from Nuclear Electric and the deterministic program SACC from SAQ Kontroll AB. The validation showed that the results from PROPSE were correct, and that the algorithms used in STAR6 were not intended to work for a general problem, when the standard deviation is either 'small' or 'large'. Distributions, to be used in a probabilistic analysis, are discussed. Examples on data to be used are also given.

Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Reid, Stuart G.

2013-05-01

Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

A Citation-Based Ranking of German-Speaking Researchers in Business Administration with Data of Google Scholar

Science.gov (United States)

Dilger, Alexander; Müller, Harry

2013-01-01

Rankings of academics can be constructed in two different ways, either based on journal rankings or based on citations. Although citation-based rankings promise some fundamental advantages they are still not common in German-speaking business administration. However, the choice of the underlying database is crucial. This article argues that for…

Development of probabilistic fatigue curve for asphalt concrete based on viscoelastic continuum damage mechanics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Himanshu Sharma

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Due to its roots in fundamental thermodynamic framework, continuum damage approach is popular for modeling asphalt concrete behavior. Currently used continuum damage models use mixture averaged values for model parameters and assume deterministic damage process. On the other hand, significant scatter is found in fatigue data generated even under extremely controlled laboratory testing conditions. Thus, currently used continuum damage models fail to account the scatter observed in fatigue data. This paper illustrates a novel approach for probabilistic fatigue life prediction based on viscoelastic continuum damage approach. Several specimens were tested for their viscoelastic properties and damage properties under uniaxial mode of loading. The data thus generated were analyzed using viscoelastic continuum damage mechanics principles to predict fatigue life. Weibull (2 parameter, 3 parameter and lognormal distributions were fit to fatigue life predicted using viscoelastic continuum damage approach. It was observed that fatigue damage could be best-described using Weibull distribution when compared to lognormal distribution. Due to its flexibility, 3-parameter Weibull distribution was found to fit better than 2-parameter Weibull distribution. Further, significant differences were found between probabilistic fatigue curves developed in this research and traditional deterministic fatigue curve. The proposed methodology combines advantages of continuum damage mechanics as well as probabilistic approaches. These probabilistic fatigue curves can be conveniently used for reliability based pavement design. Keywords: Probabilistic fatigue curve, Continuum damage mechanics, Weibull distribution, Lognormal distribution

A ligand predication tool based on modeling and reasoning with imprecise probabilistic knowledge.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Weiru; Yue, Anbu; Timson, David J

2010-04-01

Ligand prediction has been driven by a fundamental desire to understand more about how biomolecules recognize their ligands and by the commercial imperative to develop new drugs. Most of the current available software systems are very complex and time-consuming to use. Therefore, developing simple and efficient tools to perform initial screening of interesting compounds is an appealing idea. In this paper, we introduce our tool for very rapid screening for likely ligands (either substrates or inhibitors) based on reasoning with imprecise probabilistic knowledge elicited from past experiments. Probabilistic knowledge is input to the system via a user-friendly interface showing a base compound structure. A prediction of whether a particular compound is a substrate is queried against the acquired probabilistic knowledge base and a probability is returned as an indication of the prediction. This tool will be particularly useful in situations where a number of similar compounds have been screened experimentally, but information is not available for all possible members of that group of compounds. We use two case studies to demonstrate how to use the tool. 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Social norms and rank-based nudging: Changing willingness to pay for healthy food.

Science.gov (United States)

Aldrovandi, Silvio; Brown, Gordon D A; Wood, Alex M

2015-09-01

People's evaluations in the domain of healthy eating are at least partly determined by the choice context. We systematically test reference level and rank-based models of relative comparisons against each other and explore their application to social norms nudging, an intervention that aims at influencing consumers' behavior by addressing their inaccurate beliefs about their consumption relative to the consumption of others. Study 1 finds that the rank of a product or behavior among others in the immediate comparison context, rather than its objective attributes, influences its evaluation. Study 2 finds that when a comparator is presented in isolation the same rank-based process occurs based on information retrieved from memory. Study 3 finds that telling people how their consumption ranks within a normative comparison sample increases willingness to pay for a healthy food by over 30% relative to the normal social norms intervention that tells them how they compare to the average. We conclude that social norms interventions should present rank information (e.g., "you are in the most unhealthy 10% of eaters") rather than information relative to the average (e.g., "you consume 500 calories more than the average person"). (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

INTEL: Intel based systems move up in supercomputing ranks

CERN Multimedia

2002-01-01

"The TOP500 supercomputer rankings released today at the Supercomputing 2002 conference show a dramatic increase in the number of Intel-based systems being deployed in high-performance computing (HPC) or supercomputing areas" (1/2 page).

Probabilistic low-rank factorization accelerates tensor network simulations of critical quantum many-body ground states

Science.gov (United States)

Kohn, Lucas; Tschirsich, Ferdinand; Keck, Maximilian; Plenio, Martin B.; Tamascelli, Dario; Montangero, Simone

2018-01-01

We provide evidence that randomized low-rank factorization is a powerful tool for the determination of the ground-state properties of low-dimensional lattice Hamiltonians through tensor network techniques. In particular, we show that randomized matrix factorization outperforms truncated singular value decomposition based on state-of-the-art deterministic routines in time-evolving block decimation (TEBD)- and density matrix renormalization group (DMRG)-style simulations, even when the system under study gets close to a phase transition: We report linear speedups in the bond or local dimension of up to 24 times in quasi-two-dimensional cylindrical systems.

Hyper-local, directions-based ranking of places

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Venetis, Petros; Gonzalez, Hector; Jensen, Christian S.

2011-01-01

they are numerous and contain precise locations. Specifically, the paper proposes a framework that takes a user location and a collection of near-by places as arguments, producing a ranking of the places. The framework enables a range of aspects of directions queries to be exploited for the ranking of places......, including the frequency with which places have been referred to in directions queries. Next, the paper proposes an algorithm and accompanying data structures capable of ranking places in response to hyper-local web queries. Finally, an empirical study with very large directions query logs offers insight...... into the potential of directions queries for the ranking of places and suggests that the proposed algorithm is suitable for use in real web search engines....

Multi-Label Classification Based on Low Rank Representation for Image Annotation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qiaoyu Tan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Annotating remote sensing images is a challenging task for its labor demanding annotation process and requirement of expert knowledge, especially when images can be annotated with multiple semantic concepts (or labels. To automatically annotate these multi-label images, we introduce an approach called Multi-Label Classification based on Low Rank Representation (MLC-LRR. MLC-LRR firstly utilizes low rank representation in the feature space of images to compute the low rank constrained coefficient matrix, then it adapts the coefficient matrix to define a feature-based graph and to capture the global relationships between images. Next, it utilizes low rank representation in the label space of labeled images to construct a semantic graph. Finally, these two graphs are exploited to train a graph-based multi-label classifier. To validate the performance of MLC-LRR against other related graph-based multi-label methods in annotating images, we conduct experiments on a public available multi-label remote sensing images (Land Cover. We perform additional experiments on five real-world multi-label image datasets to further investigate the performance of MLC-LRR. Empirical study demonstrates that MLC-LRR achieves better performance on annotating images than these comparing methods across various evaluation criteria; it also can effectively exploit global structure and label correlations of multi-label images.

Neophilia Ranking of Scientific Journals.

Science.gov (United States)

Packalen, Mikko; Bhattacharya, Jay

2017-01-01

The ranking of scientific journals is important because of the signal it sends to scientists about what is considered most vital for scientific progress. Existing ranking systems focus on measuring the influence of a scientific paper (citations)-these rankings do not reward journals for publishing innovative work that builds on new ideas. We propose an alternative ranking based on the proclivity of journals to publish papers that build on new ideas, and we implement this ranking via a text-based analysis of all published biomedical papers dating back to 1946. In addition, we compare our neophilia ranking to citation-based (impact factor) rankings; this comparison shows that the two ranking approaches are distinct. Prior theoretical work suggests an active role for our neophilia index in science policy. Absent an explicit incentive to pursue novel science, scientists underinvest in innovative work because of a coordination problem: for work on a new idea to flourish, many scientists must decide to adopt it in their work. Rankings that are based purely on influence thus do not provide sufficient incentives for publishing innovative work. By contrast, adoption of the neophilia index as part of journal-ranking procedures by funding agencies and university administrators would provide an explicit incentive for journals to publish innovative work and thus help solve the coordination problem by increasing scientists' incentives to pursue innovative work.

Ranking of Developing Countries Based on the Economic Freedom Index

OpenAIRE

Zirak, Masoumeh; Mehrara, Mohsen

2013-01-01

In this paper we’ve ranked developing countries based on the Economic Freedom index. Therefore we are trying to do the analysis how this ranking is done using numerical taxonomic methodology. To do this, by estimating the effects of the determinants of FDI in 123 developing countries from 1997 to 2010, results showed that with regard to the degree of economic freedom or Economic openness, attract foreign direct investment in each country is different. In this study china, Equator, Liberia, Az...

Adaptive probabilistic collocation based Kalman filter for unsaturated flow problem

Science.gov (United States)

Man, J.; Li, W.; Zeng, L.; Wu, L.

2015-12-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has gained popularity in hydrological data assimilation problems. As a Monte Carlo based method, a relatively large ensemble size is usually required to guarantee the accuracy. As an alternative approach, the probabilistic collocation based Kalman filter (PCKF) employs the Polynomial Chaos to approximate the original system. In this way, the sampling error can be reduced. However, PCKF suffers from the so called "cure of dimensionality". When the system nonlinearity is strong and number of parameters is large, PCKF is even more computationally expensive than EnKF. Motivated by recent developments in uncertainty quantification, we propose a restart adaptive probabilistic collocation based Kalman filter (RAPCKF) for data assimilation in unsaturated flow problem. During the implementation of RAPCKF, the important parameters are identified and active PCE basis functions are adaptively selected. The "restart" technology is used to alleviate the inconsistency between model parameters and states. The performance of RAPCKF is tested by unsaturated flow numerical cases. It is shown that RAPCKF is more efficient than EnKF with the same computational cost. Compared with the traditional PCKF, the RAPCKF is more applicable in strongly nonlinear and high dimensional problems.

Confluence Reduction for Probabilistic Systems (extended version)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Timmer, Mark; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis

2010-01-01

This paper presents a novel technique for state space reduction of probabilistic specifications, based on a newly developed notion of confluence for probabilistic automata. We prove that this reduction preserves branching probabilistic bisimulation and can be applied on-the-fly. To support the

Hierarchical partial order ranking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carlsen, Lars

2008-01-01

Assessing the potential impact on environmental and human health from the production and use of chemicals or from polluted sites involves a multi-criteria evaluation scheme. A priori several parameters are to address, e.g., production tonnage, specific release scenarios, geographical and site-specific factors in addition to various substance dependent parameters. Further socio-economic factors may be taken into consideration. The number of parameters to be included may well appear to be prohibitive for developing a sensible model. The study introduces hierarchical partial order ranking (HPOR) that remedies this problem. By HPOR the original parameters are initially grouped based on their mutual connection and a set of meta-descriptors is derived representing the ranking corresponding to the single groups of descriptors, respectively. A second partial order ranking is carried out based on the meta-descriptors, the final ranking being disclosed though average ranks. An illustrative example on the prioritisation of polluted sites is given. - Hierarchical partial order ranking of polluted sites has been developed for prioritization based on a large number of parameters

Iris Template Protection Based on Local Ranking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dongdong Zhao

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Biometrics have been widely studied in recent years, and they are increasingly employed in real-world applications. Meanwhile, a number of potential threats to the privacy of biometric data arise. Iris template protection demands that the privacy of iris data should be protected when performing iris recognition. According to the international standard ISO/IEC 24745, iris template protection should satisfy the irreversibility, revocability, and unlinkability. However, existing works about iris template protection demonstrate that it is difficult to satisfy the three privacy requirements simultaneously while supporting effective iris recognition. In this paper, we propose an iris template protection method based on local ranking. Specifically, the iris data are first XORed (Exclusive OR operation with an application-specific string; next, we divide the results into blocks and then partition the blocks into groups. The blocks in each group are ranked according to their decimal values, and original blocks are transformed to their rank values for storage. We also extend the basic method to support the shifting strategy and masking strategy, which are two important strategies for iris recognition. We demonstrate that the proposed method satisfies the irreversibility, revocability, and unlinkability. Experimental results on typical iris datasets (i.e., CASIA-IrisV3-Interval, CASIA-IrisV4-Lamp, UBIRIS-V1-S1, and MMU-V1 show that the proposed method could maintain the recognition performance while protecting the privacy of iris data.

RankProdIt: A web-interactive Rank Products analysis tool

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laing Emma

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The first objective of a DNA microarray experiment is typically to generate a list of genes or probes that are found to be differentially expressed or represented (in the case of comparative genomic hybridizations and/or copy number variation between two conditions or strains. Rank Products analysis comprises a robust algorithm for deriving such lists from microarray experiments that comprise small numbers of replicates, for example, less than the number required for the commonly used t-test. Currently, users wishing to apply Rank Products analysis to their own microarray data sets have been restricted to the use of command line-based software which can limit its usage within the biological community. Findings Here we have developed a web interface to existing Rank Products analysis tools allowing users to quickly process their data in an intuitive and step-wise manner to obtain the respective Rank Product or Rank Sum, probability of false prediction and p-values in a downloadable file. Conclusions The online interactive Rank Products analysis tool RankProdIt, for analysis of any data set containing measurements for multiple replicated conditions, is available at: http://strep-microarray.sbs.surrey.ac.uk/RankProducts

Probabilistic safety analysis vs probabilistic fracture mechanics -relation and necessary merging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nilsson, Fred

1997-01-01

A comparison is made between some general features of probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in its standard form. We conclude that: Result from PSA is a numerically expressed level of confidence in the system based on the state of current knowledge. It is thus not any objective measure of risk. It is important to carefully define the precise nature of the probabilistic statement and relate it to a well defined situation. Standardisation of PFM methods is necessary. PFM seems to be the only way to obtain estimates of the pipe break probability. Service statistics are of doubtful value because of scarcity of data and statistical inhomogeneity. Collection of service data should be directed towards the occurrence of growing cracks

Virtual drug screen schema based on multiview similarity integration and ranking aggregation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Hong; Sheng, Zhen; Zhu, Ruixin; Huang, Qi; Liu, Qi; Cao, Zhiwei

2012-03-26

The current drug virtual screen (VS) methods mainly include two categories. i.e., ligand/target structure-based virtual screen and that, utilizing protein-ligand interaction fingerprint information based on the large number of complex structures. Since the former one focuses on the one-side information while the later one focuses on the whole complex structure, they are thus complementary and can be boosted by each other. However, a common problem faced here is how to present a comprehensive understanding and evaluation of the various virtual screen results derived from various VS methods. Furthermore, there is still an urgent need for developing an efficient approach to fully integrate various VS methods from a comprehensive multiview perspective. In this study, our virtual screen schema based on multiview similarity integration and ranking aggregation was tested comprehensively with statistical evaluations, providing several novel and useful clues on how to perform drug VS from multiple heterogeneous data sources. (1) 18 complex structures of HIV-1 protease with ligands from the PDB were curated as a test data set and the VS was performed with five different drug representations. Ritonavir ( 1HXW ) was selected as the query in VS and the weighted ranks of the query results were aggregated from multiple views through four similarity integration approaches. (2) Further, one of the ranking aggregation methods was used to integrate the similarity ranks calculated by gene ontology (GO) fingerprint and structural fingerprint on the data set from connectivity map, and two typical HDAC and HSP90 inhibitors were chosen as the queries. The results show that rank aggregation can enhance the result of similarity searching in VS when two or more descriptions are involved and provide a more reasonable similarity rank result. Our study shows that integrated VS based on multiple data fusion can achieve a remarkable better performance compared to that from individual ones and

Multi-energy CT based on a prior rank, intensity and sparsity model (PRISM)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Hao; Osher, Stanley; Yu, Hengyong; Wang, Ge

2011-01-01

We propose a compressive sensing approach for multi-energy computed tomography (CT), namely the prior rank, intensity and sparsity model (PRISM). To further compress the multi-energy image for allowing the reconstruction with fewer CT data and less radiation dose, the PRISM models a multi-energy image as the superposition of a low-rank matrix and a sparse matrix (with row dimension in space and column dimension in energy), where the low-rank matrix corresponds to the stationary background over energy that has a low matrix rank, and the sparse matrix represents the rest of distinct spectral features that are often sparse. Distinct from previous methods, the PRISM utilizes the generalized rank, e.g., the matrix rank of tight-frame transform of a multi-energy image, which offers a way to characterize the multi-level and multi-filtered image coherence across the energy spectrum. Besides, the energy-dependent intensity information can be incorporated into the PRISM in terms of the spectral curves for base materials, with which the restoration of the multi-energy image becomes the reconstruction of the energy-independent material composition matrix. In other words, the PRISM utilizes prior knowledge on the generalized rank and sparsity of a multi-energy image, and intensity/spectral characteristics of base materials. Furthermore, we develop an accurate and fast split Bregman method for the PRISM and demonstrate the superior performance of the PRISM relative to several competing methods in simulations. (papers)

14th International Probabilistic Workshop

CERN Document Server

Taerwe, Luc; Proske, Dirk

2017-01-01

This book presents the proceedings of the 14th International Probabilistic Workshop that was held in Ghent, Belgium in December 2016. Probabilistic methods are currently of crucial importance for research and developments in the field of engineering, which face challenges presented by new materials and technologies and rapidly changing societal needs and values. Contemporary needs related to, for example, performance-based design, service-life design, life-cycle analysis, product optimization, assessment of existing structures and structural robustness give rise to new developments as well as accurate and practically applicable probabilistic and statistical engineering methods to support these developments. These proceedings are a valuable resource for anyone interested in contemporary developments in the field of probabilistic engineering applications.

CT Image Sequence Restoration Based on Sparse and Low-Rank Decomposition

Science.gov (United States)

Gou, Shuiping; Wang, Yueyue; Wang, Zhilong; Peng, Yong; Zhang, Xiaopeng; Jiao, Licheng; Wu, Jianshe

2013-01-01

Blurry organ boundaries and soft tissue structures present a major challenge in biomedical image restoration. In this paper, we propose a low-rank decomposition-based method for computed tomography (CT) image sequence restoration, where the CT image sequence is decomposed into a sparse component and a low-rank component. A new point spread function of Weiner filter is employed to efficiently remove blur in the sparse component; a wiener filtering with the Gaussian PSF is used to recover the average image of the low-rank component. And then we get the recovered CT image sequence by combining the recovery low-rank image with all recovery sparse image sequence. Our method achieves restoration results with higher contrast, sharper organ boundaries and richer soft tissue structure information, compared with existing CT image restoration methods. The robustness of our method was assessed with numerical experiments using three different low-rank models: Robust Principle Component Analysis (RPCA), Linearized Alternating Direction Method with Adaptive Penalty (LADMAP) and Go Decomposition (GoDec). Experimental results demonstrated that the RPCA model was the most suitable for the small noise CT images whereas the GoDec model was the best for the large noisy CT images. PMID:24023764

Research of Subgraph Estimation Page Rank Algorithm for Web Page Rank

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

LI Lan-yin

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The traditional PageRank algorithm can not efficiently perform large data Webpage scheduling problem. This paper proposes an accelerated algorithm named topK-Rank，which is based on PageRank on the MapReduce platform. It can find top k nodes efficiently for a given graph without sacrificing accuracy. In order to identify top k nodes，topK-Rank algorithm prunes unnecessary nodes and edges in each iteration to dynamically construct subgraphs，and iteratively estimates lower/upper bounds of PageRank scores through subgraphs. Theoretical analysis shows that this method guarantees result exactness. Experiments show that topK-Rank algorithm can find k nodes much faster than the existing approaches.

Delineating probabilistic species pools in ecology and biogeography

OpenAIRE

Karger, Dirk Nikolaus; Cord, Anna F; Kessler, Michael; Kreft, Holger; Kühn, Ingolf; Pompe, Sven; Sandel, Brody; Sarmento Cabral, Juliano; Smith, Adam B; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Tuomisto, Hanna; Weigelt, Patrick; Wesche, Karsten

2016-01-01

Aim To provide a mechanistic and probabilistic framework for defining the species pool based on species-specific probabilities of dispersal, environmental suitability and biotic interactions within a specific temporal extent, and to show how probabilistic species pools can help disentangle the geographical structure of different community assembly processes. Innovation Probabilistic species pools provide an improved species pool definition based on probabilities in conjuncti...

Risk based modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chapman, O.J.V.; Baker, A.E.

1993-01-01

Risk based analysis is a tool becoming available to both engineers and managers to aid decision making concerning plant matters such as In-Service Inspection (ISI). In order to develop a risk based method, some form of Structural Reliability Risk Assessment (SRRA) needs to be performed to provide a probability of failure ranking for all sites around the plant. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can then be carried out to combine these possible events with the capability of plant safety systems and procedures, to establish the consequences of failure for the sites. In this way the probability of failures are converted into a risk based ranking which can be used to assist the process of deciding which sites should be included in an ISI programme. This paper reviews the technique and typical results of a risk based ranking assessment carried out for nuclear power plant pipework. (author)

PageRank as a method to rank biomedical literature by importance.

Science.gov (United States)

Yates, Elliot J; Dixon, Louise C

2015-01-01

Optimal ranking of literature importance is vital in overcoming article overload. Existing ranking methods are typically based on raw citation counts, giving a sum of 'inbound' links with no consideration of citation importance. PageRank, an algorithm originally developed for ranking webpages at the search engine, Google, could potentially be adapted to bibliometrics to quantify the relative importance weightings of a citation network. This article seeks to validate such an approach on the freely available, PubMed Central open access subset (PMC-OAS) of biomedical literature. On-demand cloud computing infrastructure was used to extract a citation network from over 600,000 full-text PMC-OAS articles. PageRanks and citation counts were calculated for each node in this network. PageRank is highly correlated with citation count (R = 0.905, P PageRank can be trivially computed on commodity cluster hardware and is linearly correlated with citation count. Given its putative benefits in quantifying relative importance, we suggest it may enrich the citation network, thereby overcoming the existing inadequacy of citation counts alone. We thus suggest PageRank as a feasible supplement to, or replacement of, existing bibliometric ranking methods.

Probabilistic safety assessment model in consideration of human factors based on object-oriented bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou Zhongbao; Zhou Jinglun; Sun Quan

2007-01-01

Effect of Human factors on system safety is increasingly serious, which is often ignored in traditional probabilistic safety assessment methods however. A new probabilistic safety assessment model based on object-oriented Bayesian networks is proposed in this paper. Human factors are integrated into the existed event sequence diagrams. Then the classes of the object-oriented Bayesian networks are constructed which are converted to latent Bayesian networks for inference. Finally, the inference results are integrated into event sequence diagrams for probabilistic safety assessment. The new method is applied to the accident of loss of coolant in a nuclear power plant. the results show that the model is not only applicable to real-time situation assessment, but also applicable to situation assessment based certain amount of information. The modeling complexity is kept down and the new method is appropriate to large complex systems due to the thoughts of object-oriented. (authors)

Probabilistic wind power forecasting based on logarithmic transformation and boundary kernel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Yao; Wang, Jianxue; Luo, Xu

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Quantitative information on the uncertainty of wind power generation. • Kernel density estimator provides non-Gaussian predictive distributions. • Logarithmic transformation reduces the skewness of wind power density. • Boundary kernel method eliminates the density leakage near the boundary. - Abstracts: Probabilistic wind power forecasting not only produces the expectation of wind power output, but also gives quantitative information on the associated uncertainty, which is essential for making better decisions about power system and market operations with the increasing penetration of wind power generation. This paper presents a novel kernel density estimator for probabilistic wind power forecasting, addressing two characteristics of wind power which have adverse impacts on the forecast accuracy, namely, the heavily skewed and double-bounded nature of wind power density. Logarithmic transformation is used to reduce the skewness of wind power density, which improves the effectiveness of the kernel density estimator in a transformed scale. Transformations partially relieve the boundary effect problem of the kernel density estimator caused by the double-bounded nature of wind power density. However, the case study shows that there are still some serious problems of density leakage after the transformation. In order to solve this problem in the transformed scale, a boundary kernel method is employed to eliminate the density leak at the bounds of wind power distribution. The improvement of the proposed method over the standard kernel density estimator is demonstrated by short-term probabilistic forecasting results based on the data from an actual wind farm. Then, a detailed comparison is carried out of the proposed method and some existing probabilistic forecasting methods

Ranking of input parameters importance for BWR stability based on Ringhals-1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gajev, Ivan; Kozlowski, Tomasz; Xu, Yunlin; Downar, Thomas

2011-01-01

Unstable behavior of Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) is known to occur during operation at certain power and flow conditions. Uncertainty calculations for BWR stability, based on the Wilks' formula, have been already done for the Ringhals-1 benchmark. In this work, these calculations have been used to identify and rank the most important parameters affecting the stability of the Ringhals-1 plant. The ranking has been done in two different ways and a comparison of these two methods has been demonstrated. Results show that the methods provide different, but meaningful evaluations of the ranking. (author)

RankExplorer: Visualization of Ranking Changes in Large Time Series Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Conglei; Cui, Weiwei; Liu, Shixia; Xu, Panpan; Chen, Wei; Qu, Huamin

2012-12-01

For many applications involving time series data, people are often interested in the changes of item values over time as well as their ranking changes. For example, people search many words via search engines like Google and Bing every day. Analysts are interested in both the absolute searching number for each word as well as their relative rankings. Both sets of statistics may change over time. For very large time series data with thousands of items, how to visually present ranking changes is an interesting challenge. In this paper, we propose RankExplorer, a novel visualization method based on ThemeRiver to reveal the ranking changes. Our method consists of four major components: 1) a segmentation method which partitions a large set of time series curves into a manageable number of ranking categories; 2) an extended ThemeRiver view with embedded color bars and changing glyphs to show the evolution of aggregation values related to each ranking category over time as well as the content changes in each ranking category; 3) a trend curve to show the degree of ranking changes over time; 4) rich user interactions to support interactive exploration of ranking changes. We have applied our method to some real time series data and the case studies demonstrate that our method can reveal the underlying patterns related to ranking changes which might otherwise be obscured in traditional visualizations.

Students’ difficulties in probabilistic problem-solving

Science.gov (United States)

Arum, D. P.; Kusmayadi, T. A.; Pramudya, I.

2018-03-01

There are many errors can be identified when students solving mathematics problems, particularly in solving the probabilistic problem. This present study aims to investigate students’ difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem. It focuses on analyzing and describing students errors during solving the problem. This research used the qualitative method with case study strategy. The subjects in this research involve ten students of 9th grade that were selected by purposive sampling. Data in this research involve students’ probabilistic problem-solving result and recorded interview regarding students’ difficulties in solving the problem. Those data were analyzed descriptively using Miles and Huberman steps. The results show that students have difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem and can be divided into three categories. First difficulties relate to students’ difficulties in understanding the probabilistic problem. Second, students’ difficulties in choosing and using appropriate strategies for solving the problem. Third, students’ difficulties with the computational process in solving the problem. Based on the result seems that students still have difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem. It means that students have not able to use their knowledge and ability for responding probabilistic problem yet. Therefore, it is important for mathematics teachers to plan probabilistic learning which could optimize students probabilistic thinking ability.

Probabilistic Decision Graphs - Combining Verification and AI Techniques for Probabilistic Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2004-01-01

We adopt probabilistic decision graphs developed in the field of automated verification as a tool for probabilistic model representation and inference. We show that probabilistic inference has linear time complexity in the size of the probabilistic decision graph, that the smallest probabilistic ...

Adaptive Game Level Creation through Rank-based Interactive Evolution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liapis, Antonios; Martínez, Héctor Pérez; Togelius, Julian

2013-01-01

as fitness functions for the optimization of the generated content. The preference models are built via ranking-based preference learning, while the content is generated via evolutionary search. The proposed method is evaluated on the creation of strategy game maps, and its performance is tested using...

A convergence theory for probabilistic metric spaces | Jäger ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

We develop a theory of probabilistic convergence spaces based on Tardiff's neighbourhood systems for probabilistic metric spaces. We show that the resulting category is a topological universe and we characterize a subcategory that is isomorphic to the category of probabilistic metric spaces. Keywords: Probabilistic metric ...

Ranking of bank branches with undesirable and fuzzy data: A DEA-based approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sohrab Kordrostami

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Banks are one of the most important financial sectors in order to the economic development of each country. Certainly, efficiency scores and ranks of banks are significant and effective aspects towards future planning. Sometimes the performance of banks must be measured in the presence of undesirable and vague factors. For these reasons in the current paper a procedure based on data envelopment analysis (DEA is introduced for evaluating the efficiency and complete ranking of decision making units (DMUs where undesirable and fuzzy measures exist. To illustrate, in the presence of undesirable and fuzzy measures, DMUs are evaluated by using a fuzzy expected value approach and DMUs with similar efficiency scores are ranked by using constraints and the Maximal Balance Index based on the optimal shadow prices. Afterwards, the efficiency scores of 25 branches of an Iranian commercial bank are evaluated using the proposed method. Also, a complete ranking of bank branches is presented to discriminate branches.

A Practical Probabilistic Graphical Modeling Tool for Weighing Ecological Risk-Based Evidence

Science.gov (United States)

Past weight-of-evidence frameworks for adverse ecological effects have provided soft-scoring procedures for judgments based on the quality and measured attributes of evidence. Here, we provide a flexible probabilistic structure for weighing and integrating lines of evidence for e...

Network-based ranking methods for prediction of novel disease associated microRNAs.

Science.gov (United States)

Le, Duc-Hau

2015-10-01

Many studies have shown roles of microRNAs on human disease and a number of computational methods have been proposed to predict such associations by ranking candidate microRNAs according to their relevance to a disease. Among them, machine learning-based methods usually have a limitation in specifying non-disease microRNAs as negative training samples. Meanwhile, network-based methods are becoming dominant since they well exploit a "disease module" principle in microRNA functional similarity networks. Of which, random walk with restart (RWR) algorithm-based method is currently state-of-the-art. The use of this algorithm was inspired from its success in predicting disease gene because the "disease module" principle also exists in protein interaction networks. Besides, many algorithms designed for webpage ranking have been successfully applied in ranking disease candidate genes because web networks share topological properties with protein interaction networks. However, these algorithms have not yet been utilized for disease microRNA prediction. We constructed microRNA functional similarity networks based on shared targets of microRNAs, and then we integrated them with a microRNA functional synergistic network, which was recently identified. After analyzing topological properties of these networks, in addition to RWR, we assessed the performance of (i) PRINCE (PRIoritizatioN and Complex Elucidation), which was proposed for disease gene prediction; (ii) PageRank with Priors (PRP) and K-Step Markov (KSM), which were used for studying web networks; and (iii) a neighborhood-based algorithm. Analyses on topological properties showed that all microRNA functional similarity networks are small-worldness and scale-free. The performance of each algorithm was assessed based on average AUC values on 35 disease phenotypes and average rankings of newly discovered disease microRNAs. As a result, the performance on the integrated network was better than that on individual ones. In

Is Probabilistic Evidence a Source of Knowledge?

Science.gov (United States)

Friedman, Ori; Turri, John

2015-01-01

We report a series of experiments examining whether people ascribe knowledge for true beliefs based on probabilistic evidence. Participants were less likely to ascribe knowledge for beliefs based on probabilistic evidence than for beliefs based on perceptual evidence (Experiments 1 and 2A) or testimony providing causal information (Experiment 2B).…

Strategic Entrepreneurship Based Model of Catch-up University in Global Rankings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kozlov Mikhail

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The paper will help answer the question, why only few universities managed to succeed significantly in their global ranking advancement, while most of their competitors fail. For this purpose it will introduce a new strategically entrepreneurial catch-up university framework, based on the combination of the resource based view, dynamic capabilities, strategic entrepreneurship and latecomer organization concepts. The new framework logics explains the advantages of being ambidextrous for ranking oriented universities and pursuing new potentially more favorable opportunities for research development. It will propose that substantial increase in the level of dynamic capabilities of the universities and their resource base accumulation is based on the use of the new combination of financial, human and social capital combined with strategic management of these resources in the process of identification and exploitation of greater opportunities.

Discovering urban mobility patterns with PageRank based traffic modeling and prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Minjie; Yang, Su; Sun, Yi; Gao, Jun

2017-11-01

Urban transportation system can be viewed as complex network with time-varying traffic flows as links to connect adjacent regions as networked nodes. By computing urban traffic evolution on such temporal complex network with PageRank, it is found that for most regions, there exists a linear relation between the traffic congestion measure at present time and the PageRank value of the last time. Since the PageRank measure of a region does result from the mutual interactions of the whole network, it implies that the traffic state of a local region does not evolve independently but is affected by the evolution of the whole network. As a result, the PageRank values can act as signatures in predicting upcoming traffic congestions. We observe the aforementioned laws experimentally based on the trajectory data of 12000 taxies in Beijing city for one month.

Quantitative probabilistic functional diffusion mapping in newly diagnosed glioblastoma treated with radiochemotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Ellingson, Benjamin M; Cloughesy, Timothy F; Lai, Albert; Nghiemphu, Phioanh L; Liau, Linda M; Pope, Whitney B

2013-03-01

Functional diffusion mapping (fDM) is a cancer imaging technique that uses voxel-wise changes in apparent diffusion coefficients (ADC) to evaluate response to treatment. Despite promising initial results, uncertainty in image registration remains the largest barrier to widespread clinical application. The current study introduces a probabilistic approach to fDM quantification to overcome some of these limitations. A total of 143 patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma who were undergoing standard radiochemotherapy were enrolled in this retrospective study. Traditional and probabilistic fDMs were calculated using ADC maps acquired before and after therapy. Probabilistic fDMs were calculated by applying random, finite translational, and rotational perturbations to both pre-and posttherapy ADC maps, then repeating calculation of fDMs reflecting changes after treatment, resulting in probabilistic fDMs showing the voxel-wise probability of fDM classification. Probabilistic fDMs were then compared with traditional fDMs in their ability to predict progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Probabilistic fDMs applied to patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma treated with radiochemotherapy demonstrated shortened PFS and OS among patients with a large volume of tumor with decreasing ADC evaluated at the posttreatment time with respect to the baseline scans. Alternatively, patients with a large volume of tumor with increasing ADC evaluated at the posttreatment time with respect to baseline scans were more likely to progress later and live longer. Probabilistic fDMs performed better than traditional fDMs at predicting 12-month PFS and 24-month OS with use of receiver-operator characteristic analysis. Univariate log-rank analysis on Kaplan-Meier data also revealed that probabilistic fDMs could better separate patients on the basis of PFS and OS, compared with traditional fDMs. Results suggest that probabilistic fDMs are a more predictive biomarker in

Comparison of Statistical Post-Processing Methods for Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Keunhee; Choi, JunTae; Kim, Chansoo

2018-02-01

In this study, the statistical post-processing methods that include bias-corrected and probabilistic forecasts of wind speed measured in PyeongChang, which is scheduled to host the 2018 Winter Olympics, are compared and analyzed to provide more accurate weather information. The six post-processing methods used in this study are as follows: mean bias-corrected forecast, mean and variance bias-corrected forecast, decaying averaging forecast, mean absolute bias-corrected forecast, and the alternative implementations of ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) models, which are EMOS and BMA exchangeable models by assuming exchangeable ensemble members and simplified version of EMOS and BMA models. Observations for wind speed were obtained from the 26 stations in PyeongChang and 51 ensemble member forecasts derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF Directorate, 2012) that were obtained between 1 May 2013 and 18 March 2016. Prior to applying the post-processing methods, reliability analysis was conducted by using rank histograms to identify the statistical consistency of ensemble forecast and corresponding observations. Based on the results of our study, we found that the prediction skills of probabilistic forecasts of EMOS and BMA models were superior to the biascorrected forecasts in terms of deterministic prediction, whereas in probabilistic prediction, BMA models showed better prediction skill than EMOS. Even though the simplified version of BMA model exhibited best prediction skill among the mentioned six methods, the results showed that the differences of prediction skills between the versions of EMOS and BMA were negligible.

Discrepancies between multicriteria decision analysis-based ranking and intuitive ranking for pharmaceutical benefit-risk profiles in a hypothetical setting.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoshikawa, K; Ono, S

2017-02-01

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been generally considered a promising decision-making methodology for the assessment of drug benefit-risk profiles. There have been many discussions in both public and private sectors on its feasibility and applicability, but it has not been employed in official decision-makings. For the purpose of examining to what extent MCDA would reflect the first-hand, intuitive preference of evaluators in practical pharmaceutical assessments, we conducted a questionnaire survey involving the participation of employees of pharmaceutical companies. Showing profiles of the efficacy and safety of four hypothetical drugs, each respondent was asked to rank them following the standard MCDA process and then to rank them intuitively (i.e. without applying any analytical framework). These two approaches resulted in substantially different ranking patterns from the same individuals, and the concordance rate was surprisingly low (17%). Although many respondents intuitively showed a preference for mild, balanced risk-benefit profiles over profiles with a conspicuous advantage in either risk or benefit, the ranking orders based on MCDA scores did not reflect the intuitive preference. Observed discrepancies between the rankings seemed to be primarily attributed to the structural characteristics of MCDA, which assumes that evaluation on each benefit and risk component should have monotonic impact on final scores. It would be difficult for MCDA to reflect commonly observed non-monotonic preferences for risk and benefit profiles. Possible drawbacks of MCDA should be further investigated prior to the real-world application of its benefit-risk assessment. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

How to Rank Journals.

Science.gov (United States)

Bradshaw, Corey J A; Brook, Barry W

2016-01-01

There are now many methods available to assess the relative citation performance of peer-reviewed journals. Regardless of their individual faults and advantages, citation-based metrics are used by researchers to maximize the citation potential of their articles, and by employers to rank academic track records. The absolute value of any particular index is arguably meaningless unless compared to other journals, and different metrics result in divergent rankings. To provide a simple yet more objective way to rank journals within and among disciplines, we developed a κ-resampled composite journal rank incorporating five popular citation indices: Impact Factor, Immediacy Index, Source-Normalized Impact Per Paper, SCImago Journal Rank and Google 5-year h-index; this approach provides an index of relative rank uncertainty. We applied the approach to six sample sets of scientific journals from Ecology (n = 100 journals), Medicine (n = 100), Multidisciplinary (n = 50); Ecology + Multidisciplinary (n = 25), Obstetrics & Gynaecology (n = 25) and Marine Biology & Fisheries (n = 25). We then cross-compared the κ-resampled ranking for the Ecology + Multidisciplinary journal set to the results of a survey of 188 publishing ecologists who were asked to rank the same journals, and found a 0.68-0.84 Spearman's ρ correlation between the two rankings datasets. Our composite index approach therefore approximates relative journal reputation, at least for that discipline. Agglomerative and divisive clustering and multi-dimensional scaling techniques applied to the Ecology + Multidisciplinary journal set identified specific clusters of similarly ranked journals, with only Nature & Science separating out from the others. When comparing a selection of journals within or among disciplines, we recommend collecting multiple citation-based metrics for a sample of relevant and realistic journals to calculate the composite rankings and their relative uncertainty windows.

Generalization of information-based concepts in forecast verification

Science.gov (United States)

Tödter, J.; Ahrens, B.

2012-04-01

This work deals with information-theoretical methods in probabilistic forecast verification. Recent findings concerning the Ignorance Score are shortly reviewed, then the generalization to continuous forecasts is shown. For ensemble forecasts, the presented measures can be calculated exactly. The Brier Score (BS) and its generalizations to the multi-categorical Ranked Probability Score (RPS) and to the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) are the prominent verification measures for probabilistic forecasts. Particularly, their decompositions into measures quantifying the reliability, resolution and uncertainty of the forecasts are attractive. Information theory sets up the natural framework for forecast verification. Recently, it has been shown that the BS is a second-order approximation of the information-based Ignorance Score (IGN), which also contains easily interpretable components and can also be generalized to a ranked version (RIGN). Here, the IGN, its generalizations and decompositions are systematically discussed in analogy to the variants of the BS. Additionally, a Continuous Ranked IGN (CRIGN) is introduced in analogy to the CRPS. The applicability and usefulness of the conceptually appealing CRIGN is illustrated, together with an algorithm to evaluate its components reliability, resolution, and uncertainty for ensemble-generated forecasts. This is also directly applicable to the more traditional CRPS.

Arbitrage and Hedging in a non probabilistic framework

OpenAIRE

Alvarez, Alexander; Ferrando, Sebastian; Olivares, Pablo

2011-01-01

The paper studies the concepts of hedging and arbitrage in a non probabilistic framework. It provides conditions for non probabilistic arbitrage based on the topological structure of the trajectory space and makes connections with the usual notion of arbitrage. Several examples illustrate the non probabilistic arbitrage as well perfect replication of options under continuous and discontinuous trajectories, the results can then be applied in probabilistic models path by path. The approach is r...

On the Generation of Random Ensembles of Qubits and Qutrits Computing Separability Probabilities for Fixed Rank States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khvedelidze Arsen

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The generation of random mixed states is discussed, aiming for the computation of probabilistic characteristics of composite finite dimensional quantum systems. In particular, we consider the generation of random Hilbert-Schmidt and Bures ensembles of qubit and qutrit pairs and compute the corresponding probabilities to find a separable state among the states of a fixed rank.

BridgeRank: A novel fast centrality measure based on local structure of the network

Science.gov (United States)

Salavati, Chiman; Abdollahpouri, Alireza; Manbari, Zhaleh

2018-04-01

Ranking nodes in complex networks have become an important task in many application domains. In a complex network, influential nodes are those that have the most spreading ability. Thus, identifying influential nodes based on their spreading ability is a fundamental task in different applications such as viral marketing. One of the most important centrality measures to ranking nodes is closeness centrality which is efficient but suffers from high computational complexity O(n3) . This paper tries to improve closeness centrality by utilizing the local structure of nodes and presents a new ranking algorithm, called BridgeRank centrality. The proposed method computes local centrality value for each node. For this purpose, at first, communities are detected and the relationship between communities is completely ignored. Then, by applying a centrality in each community, only one best critical node from each community is extracted. Finally, the nodes are ranked based on computing the sum of the shortest path length of nodes to obtained critical nodes. We have also modified the proposed method by weighting the original BridgeRank and selecting several nodes from each community based on the density of that community. Our method can find the best nodes with high spread ability and low time complexity, which make it applicable to large-scale networks. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method, we use the SIR diffusion model. Finally, experiments on real and artificial networks show that our method is able to identify influential nodes so efficiently, and achieves better performance compared to other recent methods.

On-line quantile regression in the RKHS (Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space) for operational probabilistic forecasting of wind power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gallego-Castillo, Cristobal; Bessa, Ricardo; Cavalcante, Laura; Lopez-Garcia, Oscar

2016-01-01

Wind power probabilistic forecast is being used as input in several decision-making problems, such as stochastic unit commitment, operating reserve setting and electricity market bidding. This work introduces a new on-line quantile regression model based on the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) framework. Its application to the field of wind power forecasting involves a discussion on the choice of the bias term of the quantile models, and the consideration of the operational framework in order to mimic real conditions. Benchmark against linear and splines quantile regression models was performed for a real case study during a 18 months period. Model parameter selection was based on k-fold crossvalidation. Results showed a noticeable improvement in terms of calibration, a key criterion for the wind power industry. Modest improvements in terms of Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) were also observed for prediction horizons between 6 and 20 h ahead. - Highlights: • New online quantile regression model based on the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space. • First application to operational probabilistic wind power forecasting. • Modest improvements of CRPS for prediction horizons between 6 and 20 h ahead. • Noticeable improvements in terms of Calibration due to online learning.

Probabilistic modeling of timber structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Köhler, Jochen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, Michael Havbro

2007-01-01

The present paper contains a proposal for the probabilistic modeling of timber material properties. It is produced in the context of the Probabilistic Model Code (PMC) of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) [Joint Committee of Structural Safety. Probabilistic Model Code, Internet...... Publication: www.jcss.ethz.ch; 2001] and of the COST action E24 ‘Reliability of Timber Structures' [COST Action E 24, Reliability of timber structures. Several meetings and Publications, Internet Publication: http://www.km.fgg.uni-lj.si/coste24/coste24.htm; 2005]. The present proposal is based on discussions...... and comments from participants of the COST E24 action and the members of the JCSS. The paper contains a description of the basic reference properties for timber strength parameters and ultimate limit state equations for timber components. The recommended probabilistic model for these basic properties...

Minkowski metrics in creating universal ranking algorithms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrzej Ameljańczyk

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The paper presents a general procedure for creating the rankings of a set of objects, while the relation of preference based on any ranking function. The analysis was possible to use the ranking functions began by showing the fundamental drawbacks of commonly used functions in the form of a weighted sum. As a special case of the ranking procedure in the space of a relation, the procedure based on the notion of an ideal element and generalized Minkowski distance from the element was proposed. This procedure, presented as universal ranking algorithm, eliminates most of the disadvantages of ranking functions in the form of a weighted sum.[b]Keywords[/b]: ranking functions, preference relation, ranking clusters, categories, ideal point, universal ranking algorithm

A Survey on PageRank Computing

OpenAIRE

Berkhin, Pavel

2005-01-01

This survey reviews the research related to PageRank computing. Components of a PageRank vector serve as authority weights for web pages independent of their textual content, solely based on the hyperlink structure of the web. PageRank is typically used as a web search ranking component. This defines the importance of the model and the data structures that underly PageRank processing. Computing even a single PageRank is a difficult computational task. Computing many PageRanks is a much mor...

A Methodology for Probabilistic Accident Management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Munteanu, Ion; Aldemir, Tunc

2003-01-01

While techniques have been developed to tackle different tasks in accident management, there have been very few attempts to develop an on-line operator assistance tool for accident management and none that can be found in the literature that uses probabilistic arguments, which are important in today's licensing climate. The state/parameter estimation capability of the dynamic system doctor (DSD) approach is combined with the dynamic event-tree generation capability of the integrated safety assessment (ISA) methodology to address this issue. The DSD uses the cell-to-cell mapping technique for system representation that models the system evolution in terms of probability of transitions in time between sets of user-defined parameter/state variable magnitude intervals (cells) within a user-specified time interval (e.g., data sampling interval). The cell-to-cell transition probabilities are obtained from the given system model. The ISA follows the system dynamics in tree form and braches every time a setpoint for system/operator intervention is exceeded. The combined approach (a) can automatically account for uncertainties in the monitored system state, inputs, and modeling uncertainties through the appropriate choice of the cells, as well as providing a probabilistic measure to rank the likelihood of possible system states in view of these uncertainties; (b) allows flexibility in system representation; (c) yields the lower and upper bounds on the estimated values of state variables/parameters as well as their expected values; and (d) leads to fewer branchings in the dynamic event-tree generation. Using a simple but realistic pressurizer model, the potential use of the DSD-ISA methodology for on-line probabilistic accident management is illustrated

Structural reliability codes for probabilistic design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

1997-01-01

probabilistic code format has not only strong influence on the formal reliability measure, but also on the formal cost of failure to be associated if a design made to the target reliability level is considered to be optimal. In fact, the formal cost of failure can be different by several orders of size for two...... different, but by and large equally justifiable probabilistic code formats. Thus, the consequence is that a code format based on decision theoretical concepts and formulated as an extension of a probabilistic code format must specify formal values to be used as costs of failure. A principle of prudence...... is suggested for guiding the choice of the reference probabilistic code format for constant reliability. In the author's opinion there is an urgent need for establishing a standard probabilistic reliability code. This paper presents some considerations that may be debatable, but nevertheless point...

Using ELM-based weighted probabilistic model in the classification of synchronous EEG BCI.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Ping; Tan, Guan-Zheng; Cai, Zi-Xing; Sa, Wei-Ping; Zou, Yi-Qun

2017-01-01

Extreme learning machine (ELM) is an effective machine learning technique with simple theory and fast implementation, which has gained increasing interest from various research fields recently. A new method that combines ELM with probabilistic model method is proposed in this paper to classify the electroencephalography (EEG) signals in synchronous brain-computer interface (BCI) system. In the proposed method, the softmax function is used to convert the ELM output to classification probability. The Chernoff error bound, deduced from the Bayesian probabilistic model in the training process, is adopted as the weight to take the discriminant process. Since the proposed method makes use of the knowledge from all preceding training datasets, its discriminating performance improves accumulatively. In the test experiments based on the datasets from BCI competitions, the proposed method is compared with other classification methods, including the linear discriminant analysis, support vector machine, ELM and weighted probabilistic model methods. For comparison, the mutual information, classification accuracy and information transfer rate are considered as the evaluation indicators for these classifiers. The results demonstrate that our method shows competitive performance against other methods.

Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for population-based human exposure modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Residential air exchange rates (AERs) are a key determinant in the infiltration of ambient air pollution indoors. Population-based human exposure models using probabilistic approaches to estimate personal exposure to air pollutants have relied on input distributions from AER meas...

AptRank: an adaptive PageRank model for protein function prediction on   bi-relational graphs.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Biaobin; Kloster, Kyle; Gleich, David F; Gribskov, Michael

2017-06-15

Diffusion-based network models are widely used for protein function prediction using protein network data and have been shown to outperform neighborhood-based and module-based methods. Recent studies have shown that integrating the hierarchical structure of the Gene Ontology (GO) data dramatically improves prediction accuracy. However, previous methods usually either used the GO hierarchy to refine the prediction results of multiple classifiers, or flattened the hierarchy into a function-function similarity kernel. No study has taken the GO hierarchy into account together with the protein network as a two-layer network model. We first construct a Bi-relational graph (Birg) model comprised of both protein-protein association and function-function hierarchical networks. We then propose two diffusion-based methods, BirgRank and AptRank, both of which use PageRank to diffuse information on this two-layer graph model. BirgRank is a direct application of traditional PageRank with fixed decay parameters. In contrast, AptRank utilizes an adaptive diffusion mechanism to improve the performance of BirgRank. We evaluate the ability of both methods to predict protein function on yeast, fly and human protein datasets, and compare with four previous methods: GeneMANIA, TMC, ProteinRank and clusDCA. We design four different validation strategies: missing function prediction, de novo function prediction, guided function prediction and newly discovered function prediction to comprehensively evaluate predictability of all six methods. We find that both BirgRank and AptRank outperform the previous methods, especially in missing function prediction when using only 10% of the data for training. The MATLAB code is available at https://github.rcac.purdue.edu/mgribsko/aptrank . gribskov@purdue.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

University Rankings and Social Science

OpenAIRE

Marginson, S.

2014-01-01

University rankings widely affect the behaviours of prospective students and their families, university executive leaders, academic faculty, governments and investors in higher education. Yet the social science foundations of global rankings receive little scrutiny. Rankings that simply recycle reputation without any necessary connection to real outputs are of no common value. It is necessary that rankings be soundly based in scientific terms if a virtuous relationship between performance and...

Ensemble Manifold Rank Preserving for Acceleration-Based Human Activity Recognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, Dapeng; Jin, Lianwen; Yuan, Yuan; Xue, Yang

2016-06-01

With the rapid development of mobile devices and pervasive computing technologies, acceleration-based human activity recognition, a difficult yet essential problem in mobile apps, has received intensive attention recently. Different acceleration signals for representing different activities or even a same activity have different attributes, which causes troubles in normalizing the signals. We thus cannot directly compare these signals with each other, because they are embedded in a nonmetric space. Therefore, we present a nonmetric scheme that retains discriminative and robust frequency domain information by developing a novel ensemble manifold rank preserving (EMRP) algorithm. EMRP simultaneously considers three aspects: 1) it encodes the local geometry using the ranking order information of intraclass samples distributed on local patches; 2) it keeps the discriminative information by maximizing the margin between samples of different classes; and 3) it finds the optimal linear combination of the alignment matrices to approximate the intrinsic manifold lied in the data. Experiments are conducted on the South China University of Technology naturalistic 3-D acceleration-based activity dataset and the naturalistic mobile-devices based human activity dataset to demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of the new nonmetric scheme for acceleration-based human activity recognition.

Ranking Operations Management conferences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Steenhuis, H.J.; de Bruijn, E.J.; Gupta, Sushil; Laptaned, U

2007-01-01

Several publications have appeared in the field of Operations Management which rank Operations Management related journals. Several ranking systems exist for journals based on , for example, perceived relevance and quality, citation, and author affiliation. Many academics also publish at conferences

Bisimulations meet PCTL equivalences for probabilistic automata

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Song, Lei; Zhang, Lijun; Godskesen, Jens Chr.

2013-01-01

Probabilistic automata (PAs) have been successfully applied in formal verification of concurrent and stochastic systems. Efficient model checking algorithms have been studied, where the most often used logics for expressing properties are based on probabilistic computation tree logic (PCTL) and its...

14 CFR 1214.1105 - Final ranking.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Final ranking. 1214.1105 Section 1214.1105... Recruitment and Selection Program § 1214.1105 Final ranking. Final rankings will be based on a combination of... preference will be included in this final ranking in accordance with applicable regulations. ...

A model-based approach to operational event groups ranking

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simic, Zdenko [European Commission Joint Research Centre, Petten (Netherlands). Inst. for Energy and Transport; Maqua, Michael [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit mbH (GRS), Koeln (Germany); Wattrelos, Didier [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), Fontenay-aux-Roses (France)

2014-04-15

The operational experience (OE) feedback provides improvements in all industrial activities. Identification of the most important and valuable groups of events within accumulated experience is important in order to focus on a detailed investigation of events. The paper describes the new ranking method and compares it with three others. Methods have been described and applied to OE events utilised by nuclear power plants in France and Germany for twenty years. The results show that different ranking methods only roughly agree on which of the event groups are the most important ones. In the new ranking method the analytical hierarchy process is applied in order to assure consistent and comprehensive weighting determination for ranking indexes. The proposed method allows a transparent and flexible event groups ranking and identification of the most important OE for further more detailed investigation in order to complete the feedback. (orig.)

Building a high-resolution T2-weighted MR-based probabilistic model of tumor occurrence in the prostate.

Science.gov (United States)

Nagarajan, Mahesh B; Raman, Steven S; Lo, Pechin; Lin, Wei-Chan; Khoshnoodi, Pooria; Sayre, James W; Ramakrishna, Bharath; Ahuja, Preeti; Huang, Jiaoti; Margolis, Daniel J A; Lu, David S K; Reiter, Robert E; Goldin, Jonathan G; Brown, Matthew S; Enzmann, Dieter R

2018-02-19

We present a method for generating a T2 MR-based probabilistic model of tumor occurrence in the prostate to guide the selection of anatomical sites for targeted biopsies and serve as a diagnostic tool to aid radiological evaluation of prostate cancer. In our study, the prostate and any radiological findings within were segmented retrospectively on 3D T2-weighted MR images of 266 subjects who underwent radical prostatectomy. Subsequent histopathological analysis determined both the ground truth and the Gleason grade of the tumors. A randomly chosen subset of 19 subjects was used to generate a multi-subject-derived prostate template. Subsequently, a cascading registration algorithm involving both affine and non-rigid B-spline transforms was used to register the prostate of every subject to the template. Corresponding transformation of radiological findings yielded a population-based probabilistic model of tumor occurrence. The quality of our probabilistic model building approach was statistically evaluated by measuring the proportion of correct placements of tumors in the prostate template, i.e., the number of tumors that maintained their anatomical location within the prostate after their transformation into the prostate template space. Probabilistic model built with tumors deemed clinically significant demonstrated a heterogeneous distribution of tumors, with higher likelihood of tumor occurrence at the mid-gland anterior transition zone and the base-to-mid-gland posterior peripheral zones. Of 250 MR lesions analyzed, 248 maintained their original anatomical location with respect to the prostate zones after transformation to the prostate. We present a robust method for generating a probabilistic model of tumor occurrence in the prostate that could aid clinical decision making, such as selection of anatomical sites for MR-guided prostate biopsies.

Meta-heuristic CRPS minimization for the calibration of short-range probabilistic forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Mohammadi, Seyedeh Atefeh; Rahmani, Morteza; Azadi, Majid

2016-08-01

This paper deals with the probabilistic short-range temperature forecasts over synoptic meteorological stations across Iran using non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR). NGR creates a Gaussian forecast probability density function (PDF) from the ensemble output. The mean of the normal predictive PDF is a bias-corrected weighted average of the ensemble members and its variance is a linear function of the raw ensemble variance. The coefficients for the mean and variance are estimated by minimizing the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) during a training period. CRPS is a scoring rule for distributional forecasts. In the paper of Gneiting et al. (Mon Weather Rev 133:1098-1118, 2005), Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) method is used to minimize the CRPS. Since BFGS is a conventional optimization method with its own limitations, we suggest using the particle swarm optimization (PSO), a robust meta-heuristic method, to minimize the CRPS. The ensemble prediction system used in this study consists of nine different configurations of the weather research and forecasting model for 48-h forecasts of temperature during autumn and winter 2011 and 2012. The probabilistic forecasts were evaluated using several common verification scores including Brier score, attribute diagram and rank histogram. Results show that both BFGS and PSO find the optimal solution and show the same evaluation scores, but PSO can do this with a feasible random first guess and much less computational complexity.

A logic for inductive probabilistic reasoning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2005-01-01

Inductive probabilistic reasoning is understood as the application of inference patterns that use statistical background information to assign (subjective) probabilities to single events. The simplest such inference pattern is direct inference: from '70% of As are Bs" and "a is an A" infer...... that a is a B with probability 0.7. Direct inference is generalized by Jeffrey's rule and the principle of cross-entropy minimization. To adequately formalize inductive probabilistic reasoning is an interesting topic for artificial intelligence, as an autonomous system acting in a complex environment may have...... to base its actions on a probabilistic model of its environment, and the probabilities needed to form this model can often be obtained by combining statistical background information with particular observations made, i.e., by inductive probabilistic reasoning. In this paper a formal framework...

Probabilistic Routing Based on Two-Hop Information in Delay/Disruption Tolerant Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xu Wang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available We investigate an opportunistic routing protocol in delay/disruption tolerant networks (DTNs where the end-to-end path between source and destination nodes may not exist for most of the time. Probabilistic routing protocol using history of encounters and transitivity (PRoPHET is an efficient history-based routing protocol specifically proposed for DTNs, which only utilizes the delivery predictability of one-hop neighbors to make a decision for message forwarding. In order to further improve the message delivery rate and to reduce the average overhead of PRoPHET, in this paper we propose an improved probabilistic routing algorithm (IPRA, where the history information of contacts for the immediate encounter and two-hop neighbors has been jointly used to make an informed decision for message forwarding. Based on the Opportunistic Networking Environment (ONE simulator, the performance of IPRA has been evaluated via extensive simulations. The results show that IPRA can significantly improve the average delivery rate while achieving a better or comparable performance with respect to average overhead, average delay, and total energy consumption compared with the existing algorithms.

Ranking Institutional Settings Based on Publications in Community Psychology Journals

Science.gov (United States)

Jason, Leonard A.; Pokorny, Steven B.; Patka, Mazna; Adams, Monica; Morello, Taylor

2007-01-01

Two primary outlets for community psychology research, the "American Journal of Community Psychology" and the "Journal of Community Psychology", were assessed to rank institutions based on publication frequency and scientific influence of publications over a 32-year period. Three specific periods were assessed (1973-1983, 1984-1994, 1995-2004).…

Introducing trimming and function ranking to Solid Works based on function analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chechurin, Leonid S.; Wits, Wessel Willems; Bakker, Hans M.; Cascini, G.; Vaneker, Thomas H.J.

2011-01-01

TRIZ based Function Analysis models existing products based on functional interactions between product parts. Such a function model description is the ideal starting point for product innovation. Design engineers can apply (TRIZ) methods such as trimming and function ranking to this function model

Introducing Trimming and Function Ranking to SolidWorks based on Function Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chechurin, L.S.; Wits, Wessel Willems; Bakker, Hans M.; Vaneker, Thomas H.J.

2015-01-01

TRIZ based Function Analysis models existing products based on functional interactions between product parts. Such a function model description is the ideal starting point for product innovation. Design engineers can apply (TRIZ) methods such as trimming and function ranking to this function model

The effect of uncertainties in distance-based ranking methods for multi-criteria decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Jaini, Nor I.; Utyuzhnikov, Sergei V.

2017-08-01

Data in the multi-criteria decision making are often imprecise and changeable. Therefore, it is important to carry out sensitivity analysis test for the multi-criteria decision making problem. The paper aims to present a sensitivity analysis for some ranking techniques based on the distance measures in multi-criteria decision making. Two types of uncertainties are considered for the sensitivity analysis test. The first uncertainty is related to the input data, while the second uncertainty is towards the Decision Maker preferences (weights). The ranking techniques considered in this study are TOPSIS, the relative distance and trade-off ranking methods. TOPSIS and the relative distance method measure a distance from an alternative to the ideal and antiideal solutions. In turn, the trade-off ranking calculates a distance of an alternative to the extreme solutions and other alternatives. Several test cases are considered to study the performance of each ranking technique in both types of uncertainties.

PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC ASSESSMENT OF BASE-ISOLATED NPPS SUBJECTED TO STRONG GROUND MOTIONS OF TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

AHMER ALI

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The probabilistic seismic performance of a standard Korean nuclear power plant (NPP with an idealized isolation is investigated in the present work. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA of the Wolsong site on the Korean peninsula is performed by considering peak ground acceleration (PGA as an earthquake intensity measure. A procedure is reported on the categorization and selection of two sets of ground motions of the Tohoku earthquake, i.e. long-period and common as Set A and Set B respectively, for the nonlinear time history response analysis of the base-isolated NPP. Limit state values as multiples of the displacement responses of the NPP base isolation are considered for the fragility estimation. The seismic risk of the NPP is further assessed by incorporation of the rate of frequency exceedance and conditional failure probability curves. Furthermore, this framework attempts to show the unacceptable performance of the isolated NPP in terms of the probabilistic distribution and annual probability of limit states. The comparative results for long and common ground motions are discussed to contribute to the future safety of nuclear facilities against drastic events like Tohoku.

Probabilistic seismic assessment of base-isolated NPPs subjected to strong ground motions of Tohoku earthquake

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ali, Ahmer; Hayah, Nadin Abu; Kim, Doo Kie [Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Kunsan National University, Kunsan (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Sung Gook [R and D Center, JACE KOREA Company, Gyeonggido (Korea, Republic of)

2014-10-15

The probabilistic seismic performance of a standard Korean nuclear power plant (NPP) with an idealized isolation is investigated in the present work. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Wolsong site on the Korean peninsula is performed by considering peak ground acceleration (PGA) as an earthquake intensity measure. A procedure is reported on the categorization and selection of two sets of ground motions of the Tohoku earthquake, i.e. long-period and common as Set A and Set B respectively, for the nonlinear time history response analysis of the base-isolated NPP. Limit state values as multiples of the displacement responses of the NPP base isolation are considered for the fragility estimation. The seismic risk of the NPP is further assessed by incorporation of the rate of frequency exceedance and conditional failure probability curves. Furthermore, this framework attempts to show the unacceptable performance of the isolated NPP in terms of the probabilistic distribution and annual probability of limit states. The comparative results for long and common ground motions are discussed to contribute to the future safety of nuclear facilities against drastic events like Tohoku.

Probabilistic hypergraph based hash codes for social image search

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Yi XIE; Hui-min YU; Roland HU

2014-01-01

With the rapid development of the Internet, recent years have seen the explosive growth of social media. This brings great challenges in performing efficient and accurate image retrieval on a large scale. Recent work shows that using hashing methods to embed high-dimensional image features and tag information into Hamming space provides a powerful way to index large collections of social images. By learning hash codes through a spectral graph partitioning algorithm, spectral hashing (SH) has shown promising performance among various hashing approaches. However, it is incomplete to model the relations among images only by pairwise simple graphs which ignore the relationship in a higher order. In this paper, we utilize a probabilistic hypergraph model to learn hash codes for social image retrieval. A probabilistic hypergraph model offers a higher order repre-sentation among social images by connecting more than two images in one hyperedge. Unlike a normal hypergraph model, a probabilistic hypergraph model considers not only the grouping information, but also the similarities between vertices in hy-peredges. Experiments on Flickr image datasets verify the performance of our proposed approach.

Shear-wave velocity-based probabilistic and deterministic assessment of seismic soil liquefaction potential

Science.gov (United States)

Kayen, R.; Moss, R.E.S.; Thompson, E.M.; Seed, R.B.; Cetin, K.O.; Der Kiureghian, A.; Tanaka, Y.; Tokimatsu, K.

2013-01-01

Shear-wave velocity (Vs) offers a means to determine the seismic resistance of soil to liquefaction by a fundamental soil property. This paper presents the results of an 11-year international project to gather new Vs site data and develop probabilistic correlations for seismic soil liquefaction occurrence. Toward that objective, shear-wave velocity test sites were identified, and measurements made for 301 new liquefaction field case histories in China, Japan, Taiwan, Greece, and the United States over a decade. The majority of these new case histories reoccupy those previously investigated by penetration testing. These new data are combined with previously published case histories to build a global catalog of 422 case histories of Vs liquefaction performance. Bayesian regression and structural reliability methods facilitate a probabilistic treatment of the Vs catalog for performance-based engineering applications. Where possible, uncertainties of the variables comprising both the seismic demand and the soil capacity were estimated and included in the analysis, resulting in greatly reduced overall model uncertainty relative to previous studies. The presented data set and probabilistic analysis also help resolve the ancillary issues of adjustment for soil fines content and magnitude scaling factors.

A probabilistic model for component-based shape synthesis

KAUST Repository

Kalogerakis, Evangelos

2012-07-01

We present an approach to synthesizing shapes from complex domains, by identifying new plausible combinations of components from existing shapes. Our primary contribution is a new generative model of component-based shape structure. The model represents probabilistic relationships between properties of shape components, and relates them to learned underlying causes of structural variability within the domain. These causes are treated as latent variables, leading to a compact representation that can be effectively learned without supervision from a set of compatibly segmented shapes. We evaluate the model on a number of shape datasets with complex structural variability and demonstrate its application to amplification of shape databases and to interactive shape synthesis. © 2012 ACM 0730-0301/2012/08-ART55.

Probabilistic insurance

OpenAIRE

Wakker, P.P.; Thaler, R.H.; Tversky, A.

1997-01-01

textabstractProbabilistic insurance is an insurance policy involving a small probability that the consumer will not be reimbursed. Survey data suggest that people dislike probabilistic insurance and demand more than a 20% reduction in the premium to compensate for a 1% default risk. While these preferences are intuitively appealing they are difficult to reconcile with expected utility theory. Under highly plausible assumptions about the utility function, willingness to pay for probabilistic i...

Adaptive predictors based on probabilistic SVM for real time disruption mitigation on JET

Science.gov (United States)

Murari, A.; Lungaroni, M.; Peluso, E.; Gaudio, P.; Vega, J.; Dormido-Canto, S.; Baruzzo, M.; Gelfusa, M.; Contributors, JET

2018-05-01

Detecting disruptions with sufficient anticipation time is essential to undertake any form of remedial strategy, mitigation or avoidance. Traditional predictors based on machine learning techniques can be very performing, if properly optimised, but do not provide a natural estimate of the quality of their outputs and they typically age very quickly. In this paper a new set of tools, based on probabilistic extensions of support vector machines (SVM), are introduced and applied for the first time to JET data. The probabilistic output constitutes a natural qualification of the prediction quality and provides additional flexibility. An adaptive training strategy ‘from scratch’ has also been devised, which allows preserving the performance even when the experimental conditions change significantly. Large JET databases of disruptions, covering entire campaigns and thousands of discharges, have been analysed, both for the case of the graphite and the ITER Like Wall. Performance significantly better than any previous predictor using adaptive training has been achieved, satisfying even the requirements of the next generation of devices. The adaptive approach to the training has also provided unique information about the evolution of the operational space. The fact that the developed tools give the probability of disruption improves the interpretability of the results, provides an estimate of the predictor quality and gives new insights into the physics. Moreover, the probabilistic treatment permits to insert more easily these classifiers into general decision support and control systems.

Rank-based testing of equal survivorship based on cross-sectional survival data with or without prospective follow-up.

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Kwun Chuen Gary; Qin, Jing

2015-10-01

Existing linear rank statistics cannot be applied to cross-sectional survival data without follow-up since all subjects are essentially censored. However, partial survival information are available from backward recurrence times and are frequently collected from health surveys without prospective follow-up. Under length-biased sampling, a class of linear rank statistics is proposed based only on backward recurrence times without any prospective follow-up. When follow-up data are available, the proposed rank statistic and a conventional rank statistic that utilizes follow-up information from the same sample are shown to be asymptotically independent. We discuss four ways to combine these two statistics when follow-up is present. Simulations show that all combined statistics have substantially improved power compared with conventional rank statistics, and a Mantel-Haenszel test performed the best among the proposal statistics. The method is applied to a cross-sectional health survey without follow-up and a study of Alzheimer's disease with prospective follow-up. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A practical sensitivity analysis method for ranking sources of uncertainty in thermal–hydraulics applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad, E-mail: pourgolmohammad@sut.ac.ir [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen [Department of Basic Sciences, East Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Hoseyni, Seyed Mojtaba [Building & Housing Research Center, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sepanloo, Kamran [Nuclear Science and Technology Research Institute, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2016-08-15

Highlights: • Existing uncertainty ranking methods prove inconsistent for TH applications. • Introduction of a new method for ranking sources of uncertainty in TH codes. • Modified PIRT qualitatively identifies and ranks uncertainty sources more precisely. • The importance of parameters is calculated by a limited number of TH code executions. • Methodology is applied successfully on LOFT-LB1 test facility. - Abstract: In application to thermal–hydraulic calculations by system codes, sensitivity analysis plays an important role for managing the uncertainties of code output and risk analysis. Sensitivity analysis is also used to confirm the results of qualitative Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT). Several methodologies have been developed to address uncertainty importance assessment. Generally, uncertainty importance measures, mainly devised for the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) applications, are not affordable for computationally demanding calculations of the complex thermal–hydraulics (TH) system codes. In other words, for effective quantification of the degree of the contribution of each phenomenon to the total uncertainty of the output, a practical approach is needed by considering high computational burden of TH calculations. This study aims primarily to show the inefficiency of the existing approaches and then introduces a solution to cope with the challenges in this area by modification of variance-based uncertainty importance method. Important parameters are identified by the modified PIRT approach qualitatively then their uncertainty importance is quantified by a local derivative index. The proposed index is attractive from its practicality point of view on TH applications. It is capable of calculating the importance of parameters by a limited number of TH code executions. Application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated on LOFT-LB1 test facility.

A practical sensitivity analysis method for ranking sources of uncertainty in thermal–hydraulics applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad; Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen; Hoseyni, Seyed Mojtaba; Sepanloo, Kamran

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Existing uncertainty ranking methods prove inconsistent for TH applications. • Introduction of a new method for ranking sources of uncertainty in TH codes. • Modified PIRT qualitatively identifies and ranks uncertainty sources more precisely. • The importance of parameters is calculated by a limited number of TH code executions. • Methodology is applied successfully on LOFT-LB1 test facility. - Abstract: In application to thermal–hydraulic calculations by system codes, sensitivity analysis plays an important role for managing the uncertainties of code output and risk analysis. Sensitivity analysis is also used to confirm the results of qualitative Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT). Several methodologies have been developed to address uncertainty importance assessment. Generally, uncertainty importance measures, mainly devised for the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) applications, are not affordable for computationally demanding calculations of the complex thermal–hydraulics (TH) system codes. In other words, for effective quantification of the degree of the contribution of each phenomenon to the total uncertainty of the output, a practical approach is needed by considering high computational burden of TH calculations. This study aims primarily to show the inefficiency of the existing approaches and then introduces a solution to cope with the challenges in this area by modification of variance-based uncertainty importance method. Important parameters are identified by the modified PIRT approach qualitatively then their uncertainty importance is quantified by a local derivative index. The proposed index is attractive from its practicality point of view on TH applications. It is capable of calculating the importance of parameters by a limited number of TH code executions. Application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated on LOFT-LB1 test facility.

Universality of rank-ordering distributions in the arts and sciences.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gustavo Martínez-Mekler

Full Text Available Searching for generic behaviors has been one of the driving forces leading to a deep understanding and classification of diverse phenomena. Usually a starting point is the development of a phenomenology based on observations. Such is the case for power law distributions encountered in a wealth of situations coming from physics, geophysics, biology, lexicography as well as social and financial networks. This finding is however restricted to a range of values outside of which finite size corrections are often invoked. Here we uncover a universal behavior of the way in which elements of a system are distributed according to their rank with respect to a given property, valid for the full range of values, regardless of whether or not a power law has previously been suggested. We propose a two parameter functional form for these rank-ordered distributions that gives excellent fits to an impressive amount of very diverse phenomena, coming from the arts, social and natural sciences. It is a discrete version of a generalized beta distribution, given by f(r = A(N+1-r(b/r(a, where r is the rank, N its maximum value, A the normalization constant and (a, b two fitting exponents. Prompted by our genetic sequence observations we present a growth probabilistic model incorporating mutation-duplication features that generates data complying with this distribution. The competition between permanence and change appears to be a relevant, though not necessary feature. Additionally, our observations mainly of social phenomena suggest that a multifactorial quality resulting from the convergence of several heterogeneous underlying processes is an important feature. We also explore the significance of the distribution parameters and their classifying potential. The ubiquity of our findings suggests that there must be a fundamental underlying explanation, most probably of a statistical nature, such as an appropriate central limit theorem formulation.

A probabilistic model for component-based shape synthesis

KAUST Repository

Kalogerakis, Evangelos; Chaudhuri, Siddhartha; Koller, Daphne; Koltun, Vladlen

2012-01-01

represents probabilistic relationships between properties of shape components, and relates them to learned underlying causes of structural variability within the domain. These causes are treated as latent variables, leading to a compact representation

Novel Opportunistic Network Routing Based on Social Rank for Device-to-Device Communication

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tong Wang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In recent years, there has been dramatic proliferation of research concerned with fifth-generation (5G mobile communication networks, among which device-to-device (D2D communication is one of the key technologies. Due to the intermittent connection of nodes, the D2D network topology may be disconnected frequently, which will lead to failure in transmission of large data files. In opportunistic networks, in case of encountering nodes which never meet before a flood message blindly to cause tremendous network overhead, a novel opportunistic network routing protocol based on social rank and intermeeting time (SRIT is proposed in this paper. An improved utility approach applied in utility replication based on encounter durations and intermeeting time is put forward to enhance the routing efficiency. Meanwhile, in order to select better candidate nodes in the network, a social graph among people is established when they socially relate to each other in social rank replication. The results under the scenario show an advantage of the proposed opportunistic network routing based on social rank and intermeeting time (SRIT over the compared algorithms in terms of delivery ratio, average delivery latency, and overhead ratio.

A multimedia retrieval framework based on semi-supervised ranking and relevance feedback.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yi; Nie, Feiping; Xu, Dong; Luo, Jiebo; Zhuang, Yueting; Pan, Yunhe

2012-04-01

We present a new framework for multimedia content analysis and retrieval which consists of two independent algorithms. First, we propose a new semi-supervised algorithm called ranking with Local Regression and Global Alignment (LRGA) to learn a robust Laplacian matrix for data ranking. In LRGA, for each data point, a local linear regression model is used to predict the ranking scores of its neighboring points. A unified objective function is then proposed to globally align the local models from all the data points so that an optimal ranking score can be assigned to each data point. Second, we propose a semi-supervised long-term Relevance Feedback (RF) algorithm to refine the multimedia data representation. The proposed long-term RF algorithm utilizes both the multimedia data distribution in multimedia feature space and the history RF information provided by users. A trace ratio optimization problem is then formulated and solved by an efficient algorithm. The algorithms have been applied to several content-based multimedia retrieval applications, including cross-media retrieval, image retrieval, and 3D motion/pose data retrieval. Comprehensive experiments on four data sets have demonstrated its advantages in precision, robustness, scalability, and computational efficiency.

Application of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2014-02-14

Feb 14, 2014 ... Application of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a deterministic model ... aim of this paper is to investigate the increase in the lead-time of flash flood warnings of the SAFFG using probabilistic precipitation forecasts ... The procedure is applied to a real flash flood event and the ensemble-based.

Environmental and health hazard ranking and assessment of plastic polymers based on chemical composition

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lithner, Delilah, E-mail: delilah.lithner@gmail.com; Larsson, Ake; Dave, Goeran

2011-08-15

Plastics constitute a large material group with a global annual production that has doubled in 15 years (245 million tonnes in 2008). Plastics are present everywhere in society and the environment, especially the marine environment, where large amounts of plastic waste accumulate. The knowledge of human and environmental hazards and risks from chemicals associated with the diversity of plastic products is very limited. Most chemicals used for producing plastic polymers are derived from non-renewable crude oil, and several are hazardous. These may be released during the production, use and disposal of the plastic product. In this study the environmental and health hazards of chemicals used in 55 thermoplastic and thermosetting polymers were identified and compiled. A hazard ranking model was developed for the hazard classes and categories in the EU classification and labelling (CLP) regulation which is based on the UN Globally Harmonized System. The polymers were ranked based on monomer hazard classifications, and initial assessments were made. The polymers that ranked as most hazardous are made of monomers classified as mutagenic and/or carcinogenic (category 1A or 1B). These belong to the polymer families of polyurethanes, polyacrylonitriles, polyvinyl chloride, epoxy resins, and styrenic copolymers. All have a large global annual production (1-37 million tonnes). A considerable number of polymers (31 out of 55) are made of monomers that belong to the two worst of the ranking model's five hazard levels, i.e. levels IV-V. The polymers that are made of level IV monomers and have a large global annual production (1-5 million tonnes) are phenol formaldehyde resins, unsaturated polyesters, polycarbonate, polymethyl methacrylate, and urea-formaldehyde resins. This study has identified hazardous substances used in polymer production for which the risks should be evaluated for decisions on the need for risk reduction measures, substitution, or even phase out

Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Assessment Methodologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kudinov, P.; Vorobyev, Y.; Sanchez-Perea, M.; Queral, C.; Jimenez Varas, G.; Rebollo, M. J.; Mena, L.; Gomez-Magin, J.

2014-02-01

IDPSA (Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Assessment) is a family of methods which use tightly coupled probabilistic and deterministic approaches to address respective sources of uncertainties, enabling Risk informed decision making in a consistent manner. The starting point of the IDPSA framework is that safety justification must be based on the coupling of deterministic (consequences) and probabilistic (frequency) considerations to address the mutual interactions between stochastic disturbances (e.g. failures of the equipment, human actions, stochastic physical phenomena) and deterministic response of the plant (i.e. transients). This paper gives a general overview of some IDPSA methods as well as some possible applications to PWR safety analyses. (Author)

Ranking scientific publications: the effect of nonlinearity

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Liyang; Wei, Tian; Zeng, An; Fan, Ying; di, Zengru

2014-10-01

Ranking the significance of scientific publications is a long-standing challenge. The network-based analysis is a natural and common approach for evaluating the scientific credit of papers. Although the number of citations has been widely used as a metric to rank papers, recently some iterative processes such as the well-known PageRank algorithm have been applied to the citation networks to address this problem. In this paper, we introduce nonlinearity to the PageRank algorithm when aggregating resources from different nodes to further enhance the effect of important papers. The validation of our method is performed on the data of American Physical Society (APS) journals. The results indicate that the nonlinearity improves the performance of the PageRank algorithm in terms of ranking effectiveness, as well as robustness against malicious manipulations. Although the nonlinearity analysis is based on the PageRank algorithm, it can be easily extended to other iterative ranking algorithms and similar improvements are expected.

Ranking scientific publications: the effect of nonlinearity.

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Liyang; Wei, Tian; Zeng, An; Fan, Ying; Di, Zengru

2014-10-17

Ranking the significance of scientific publications is a long-standing challenge. The network-based analysis is a natural and common approach for evaluating the scientific credit of papers. Although the number of citations has been widely used as a metric to rank papers, recently some iterative processes such as the well-known PageRank algorithm have been applied to the citation networks to address this problem. In this paper, we introduce nonlinearity to the PageRank algorithm when aggregating resources from different nodes to further enhance the effect of important papers. The validation of our method is performed on the data of American Physical Society (APS) journals. The results indicate that the nonlinearity improves the performance of the PageRank algorithm in terms of ranking effectiveness, as well as robustness against malicious manipulations. Although the nonlinearity analysis is based on the PageRank algorithm, it can be easily extended to other iterative ranking algorithms and similar improvements are expected.

Probabilistic costing of transmission services

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wijayatunga, P.D.C.

1992-01-01

Costing of transmission services of electrical utilities is required for transactions involving the transport of energy over a power network. The calculation of these costs based on Short Run Marginal Costing (SRMC) is preferred over other methods proposed in the literature due to its economic efficiency. In the research work discussed here, the concept of probabilistic costing of use-of-system based on SRMC which emerges as a consequence of the uncertainties in a power system is introduced using two different approaches. The first approach, based on the Monte Carlo method, generates a large number of possible system states by simulating random variables in the system using pseudo random number generators. A second approach to probabilistic use-of-system costing is proposed based on numerical convolution and multi-area representation of the transmission network. (UK)

A Rank-Constrained Matrix Representation for Hypergraph-Based Subspace Clustering

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yubao Sun

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a novel, rank-constrained matrix representation combined with hypergraph spectral analysis to enable the recovery of the original subspace structures of corrupted data. Real-world data are frequently corrupted with both sparse error and noise. Our matrix decomposition model separates the low-rank, sparse error, and noise components from the data in order to enhance robustness to the corruption. In order to obtain the desired rank representation of the data within a dictionary, our model directly utilizes rank constraints by restricting the upper bound of the rank range. An alternative projection algorithm is proposed to estimate the low-rank representation and separate the sparse error from the data matrix. To further capture the complex relationship between data distributed in multiple subspaces, we use hypergraph to represent the data by encapsulating multiple related samples into one hyperedge. The final clustering result is obtained by spectral decomposition of the hypergraph Laplacian matrix. Validation experiments on the Extended Yale Face Database B, AR, and Hopkins 155 datasets show that the proposed method is a promising tool for subspace clustering.

Rank Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Gershenson, Carlos

Studies of rank distributions have been popular for decades, especially since the work of Zipf. For example, if we rank words of a given language by use frequency (most used word in English is 'the', rank 1; second most common word is 'of', rank 2), the distribution can be approximated roughly with a power law. The same applies for cities (most populated city in a country ranks first), earthquakes, metabolism, the Internet, and dozens of other phenomena. We recently proposed ``rank diversity'' to measure how ranks change in time, using the Google Books Ngram dataset. Studying six languages between 1800 and 2009, we found that the rank diversity curves of languages are universal, adjusted with a sigmoid on log-normal scale. We are studying several other datasets (sports, economies, social systems, urban systems, earthquakes, artificial life). Rank diversity seems to be universal, independently of the shape of the rank distribution. I will present our work in progress towards a general description of the features of rank change in time, along with simple models which reproduce it

Content-based image retrieval with ontological ranking

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Shen-Fu; Tsai, Min-Hsuan; Huang, Thomas S.

2010-02-01

Images are a much more powerful medium of expression than text, as the adage says: "One picture is worth a thousand words." It is because compared with text consisting of an array of words, an image has more degrees of freedom and therefore a more complicated structure. However, the less limited structure of images presents researchers in the computer vision community a tough task of teaching machines to understand and organize images, especially when a limit number of learning examples and background knowledge are given. The advance of internet and web technology in the past decade has changed the way human gain knowledge. People, hence, can exchange knowledge with others by discussing and contributing information on the web. As a result, the web pages in the internet have become a living and growing source of information. One is therefore tempted to wonder whether machines can learn from the web knowledge base as well. Indeed, it is possible to make computer learn from the internet and provide human with more meaningful knowledge. In this work, we explore this novel possibility on image understanding applied to semantic image search. We exploit web resources to obtain links from images to keywords and a semantic ontology constituting human's general knowledge. The former maps visual content to related text in contrast to the traditional way of associating images with surrounding text; the latter provides relations between concepts for machines to understand to what extent and in what sense an image is close to the image search query. With the aid of these two tools, the resulting image search system is thus content-based and moreover, organized. The returned images are ranked and organized such that semantically similar images are grouped together and given a rank based on the semantic closeness to the input query. The novelty of the system is twofold: first, images are retrieved not only based on text cues but their actual contents as well; second, the grouping

Development of a health effects based priority ranking system for air emissions reductions from oil refineries in Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McColl, S.; Gower, S.; Hicks, J.; Shortreed, J.; Craig, L.

2004-01-01

This paper presents the concept and methodologies behind the development of a health effects priority ranking tool for the reduction of air emissions from oil refineries. The Health Effects Indicators Decision Index- Versions 2 (Heidi II) was designed to assist policy makers in prioritizing air emissions reductions on the basis of estimated risk to human health. Inputs include facility level rankings of potential health impacts associated with carcinogenic air toxics, non-carcinogenic air toxics and criteria air contaminants for each of the 20 refineries in Canada. Rankings of estimated health impacts are presented on predicted incidence of health effects. Heidi II considers site-specific annual pollutant emission data, ambient air concentrations associated with releases and concentration response functions for various types of health effects. Additional data includes location specific background air concentrations, site-specific population densities, and the baseline incidence of different health effects endpoints, such as cancer, non-cancer illnesses and cardiorespiratory illnesses and death. Air pollutants include the 29 air toxics reported annually in Environment Canada's National Pollutant Release Inventory. Three health impact ranking outputs are provided for each facility: ranking of pollutants based on predicted number of annual cases of health effects; ranking of pollutants based on simplified Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs); and ranking of pollutants based on more complex DALYs that consider types of cancer, systemic disease or types of cardiopulmonary health effects. Rankings rely on rough statistical estimates of predicted incidence rates for health endpoints. The models used to calculate rankings can provide useful guidance by comparing estimated health impacts. Heidi II has demonstrated that it is possible to develop a consistent and objective approach for ranking priority reductions of air emissions. Heidi II requires numerous types and

Global Infrasound Association Based on Probabilistic Clutter Categorization

Science.gov (United States)

Arora, Nimar; Mialle, Pierrick

2016-04-01

The IDC advances its methods and continuously improves its automatic system for the infrasound technology. The IDC focuses on enhancing the automatic system for the identification of valid signals and the optimization of the network detection threshold by identifying ways to refine signal characterization methodology and association criteria. An objective of this study is to reduce the number of associated infrasound arrivals that are rejected from the automatic bulletins when generating the reviewed event bulletins. Indeed, a considerable number of signal detections are due to local clutter sources such as microbaroms, waterfalls, dams, gas flares, surf (ocean breaking waves) etc. These sources are either too diffuse or too local to form events. Worse still, the repetitive nature of this clutter leads to a large number of false event hypotheses due to the random matching of clutter at multiple stations. Previous studies, for example [1], have worked on categorization of clutter using long term trends on detection azimuth, frequency, and amplitude at each station. In this work we continue the same line of reasoning to build a probabilistic model of clutter that is used as part of NETVISA [2], a Bayesian approach to network processing. The resulting model is a fusion of seismic, hydroacoustic and infrasound processing built on a unified probabilistic framework. References: [1] Infrasound categorization Towards a statistics based approach. J. Vergoz, P. Gaillard, A. Le Pichon, N. Brachet, and L. Ceranna. ITW 2011 [2] NETVISA: Network Processing Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis. N. S. Arora, S. Russell, and E. Sudderth. BSSA 2013

Accelerating parameter identification of proton exchange membrane fuel cell model with ranking-based differential evolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gong, Wenyin; Cai, Zhihua

2013-01-01

Parameter identification of PEM (proton exchange membrane) fuel cell model is a very active area of research. Generally, it can be treated as a numerical optimization problem with complex nonlinear and multi-variable features. DE (differential evolution), which has been successfully used in various fields, is a simple yet efficient evolutionary algorithm for global numerical optimization. In this paper, with the objective of accelerating the process of parameter identification of PEM fuel cell models and reducing the necessary computational efforts, we firstly present a generic and simple ranking-based mutation operator for the DE algorithm. Then, the ranking-based mutation operator is incorporated into five highly-competitive DE variants to solve the PEM fuel cell model parameter identification problems. The main contributions of this work are the proposed ranking-based DE variants and their application to the parameter identification problems of PEM fuel cell models. Experiments have been conducted by using both the simulated voltage–current data and the data obtained from the literature to validate the performance of our approach. The results indicate that the ranking-based DE methods provide better results with respect to the solution quality, the convergence rate, and the success rate compared with their corresponding original DE methods. In addition, the voltage–current characteristics obtained by our approach are in good agreement with the original voltage–current curves in all cases. - Highlights: • A simple and generic ranking-based mutation operator is presented in this paper. • Several DE (differential evolution) variants are used to solve the parameter identification of PEMFC (proton exchange membrane fuel cells) model. • Results show that our method accelerates the process of parameter identification. • The V–I characteristics are in very good agreement with experimental data

A probabilistic risk assessment for field radiography based on expert judgment and opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Han-Ki; Ryu, Hyung-Joon; Kim, Ji-Young; Lee, Jai-Ki; Cho, Kun-Woo

2011-01-01

A probabilistic approach was applied to assess radiation risk associated with the field radiography using gamma sources. The Delphi method based on the expert judgments and opinions was used in the process of characterization of parameters affecting risk, which are inevitably subject to large uncertainties. A mathematical approach applying the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. This process consists of three phases: (1) setting prior distributions, (2) constructing the likelihood functions and (3) deriving the posterior distributions based on the likelihood functions. The approach for characterizing input parameters using the Bayesian inference is provided for improved risk estimates without intentional rejection of part of the data, which demonstrated utility of Bayesian updating of distributions of uncertain input parameters in PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment). The data analysis portion for PRA in field radiography is addressed for estimates of the parameters used to determine the frequencies and consequences of the various events modeled. In this study, radiological risks for the worker and the public member in the vicinity of the work place are estimated for field radiography system in Korea based on two-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis (2D MCA). (author)

Ranking environmental projects model based on multicriteria decision-making and the weight sensitivity analysis

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2007-01-01

With the fast growth of Chinese economic,more and more capital will be invested in environmental projects.How to select the environmental investment projects(alternatives)for obtaining the best environmental quality and economic benefits is an important problem for the decision makers.The purpose of this paper is to develop a decision-making model to rank a finite number of alternatives with several and sometimes conflicting criteria.A model for ranking the projects of municipal sewage treatment plants is proposed by using exports' information and the data of the real projects.And,the ranking result is given based on the PROMETHEE method. Furthermore,by means of the concept of the weight stability intervals(WSI),the sensitivity of the ranking results to the size of criteria values and the change of weights value of criteria are discussed.The result shows that some criteria,such as"proportion of benefit to projoct cost",will influence the ranking result of alternatives very strong while others not.The influence are not only from the value of criterion but also from the changing the weight of criterion.So,some criteria such as"proportion of benefit to projoct cost" are key critera for ranking the projects. Decision makers must be cautious to them.

PageRank tracker: from ranking to tracking.

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Chen; Fu, Keren; Loza, Artur; Wu, Qiang; Liu, Jia; Yang, Jie

2014-06-01

Video object tracking is widely used in many real-world applications, and it has been extensively studied for over two decades. However, tracking robustness is still an issue in most existing methods, due to the difficulties with adaptation to environmental or target changes. In order to improve adaptability, this paper formulates the tracking process as a ranking problem, and the PageRank algorithm, which is a well-known webpage ranking algorithm used by Google, is applied. Labeled and unlabeled samples in tracking application are analogous to query webpages and the webpages to be ranked, respectively. Therefore, determining the target is equivalent to finding the unlabeled sample that is the most associated with existing labeled set. We modify the conventional PageRank algorithm in three aspects for tracking application, including graph construction, PageRank vector acquisition and target filtering. Our simulations with the use of various challenging public-domain video sequences reveal that the proposed PageRank tracker outperforms mean-shift tracker, co-tracker, semiboosting and beyond semiboosting trackers in terms of accuracy, robustness and stability.

Multiple graph regularized protein domain ranking.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jim Jing-Yan; Bensmail, Halima; Gao, Xin

2012-11-19

Protein domain ranking is a fundamental task in structural biology. Most protein domain ranking methods rely on the pairwise comparison of protein domains while neglecting the global manifold structure of the protein domain database. Recently, graph regularized ranking that exploits the global structure of the graph defined by the pairwise similarities has been proposed. However, the existing graph regularized ranking methods are very sensitive to the choice of the graph model and parameters, and this remains a difficult problem for most of the protein domain ranking methods. To tackle this problem, we have developed the Multiple Graph regularized Ranking algorithm, MultiG-Rank. Instead of using a single graph to regularize the ranking scores, MultiG-Rank approximates the intrinsic manifold of protein domain distribution by combining multiple initial graphs for the regularization. Graph weights are learned with ranking scores jointly and automatically, by alternately minimizing an objective function in an iterative algorithm. Experimental results on a subset of the ASTRAL SCOP protein domain database demonstrate that MultiG-Rank achieves a better ranking performance than single graph regularized ranking methods and pairwise similarity based ranking methods. The problem of graph model and parameter selection in graph regularized protein domain ranking can be solved effectively by combining multiple graphs. This aspect of generalization introduces a new frontier in applying multiple graphs to solving protein domain ranking applications.

Comparing classical and quantum PageRanks

Science.gov (United States)

Loke, T.; Tang, J. W.; Rodriguez, J.; Small, M.; Wang, J. B.

2017-01-01

Following recent developments in quantum PageRanking, we present a comparative analysis of discrete-time and continuous-time quantum-walk-based PageRank algorithms. Relative to classical PageRank and to different extents, the quantum measures better highlight secondary hubs and resolve ranking degeneracy among peripheral nodes for all networks we studied in this paper. For the discrete-time case, we investigated the periodic nature of the walker's probability distribution for a wide range of networks and found that the dominant period does not grow with the size of these networks. Based on this observation, we introduce a new quantum measure using the maximum probabilities of the associated walker during the first couple of periods. This is particularly important, since it leads to a quantum PageRanking scheme that is scalable with respect to network size.

Dose-volume based ranking of incident beam direction and its utility in facilitating IMRT beam placement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schreibmann, Eduard; Xing Lei

2005-01-01

Purpose: Beam orientation optimization in intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) is computationally intensive, and various single beam ranking techniques have been proposed to reduce the search space. Up to this point, none of the existing ranking techniques considers the clinically important dose-volume effects of the involved structures, which may lead to clinically irrelevant angular ranking. The purpose of this work is to develop a clinically sensible angular ranking model with incorporation of dose-volume effects and to show its utility for IMRT beam placement. Methods and Materials: The general consideration in constructing this angular ranking function is that a beamlet/beam is preferable if it can deliver a higher dose to the target without exceeding the tolerance of the sensitive structures located on the path of the beamlet/beam. In the previously proposed dose-based approach, the beamlets are treated independently and, to compute the maximally deliverable dose to the target volume, the intensity of each beamlet is pushed to its maximum intensity without considering the values of other beamlets. When volumetric structures are involved, the complication arises from the fact that there are numerous dose distributions corresponding to the same dose-volume tolerance. In this situation, the beamlets are not independent and an optimization algorithm is required to find the intensity profile that delivers the maximum target dose while satisfying the volumetric constraints. In this study, the behavior of a volumetric organ was modeled by using the equivalent uniform dose (EUD). A constrained sequential quadratic programming algorithm (CFSQP) was used to find the beam profile that delivers the maximum dose to the target volume without violating the EUD constraint or constraints. To assess the utility of the proposed technique, we planned a head-and-neck and abdominal case with and without the guidance of the angular ranking information. The qualities of the

Probabilistic Modeling of the Fatigue Crack Growth Rate for Ni-base Alloy X-750

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoon, J.Y.; Nam, H.O.; Hwang, I.S.; Lee, T.H.

2012-01-01

Extending the operating life of existing nuclear power plants (NPP's) beyond 60 years. Many aging problems of passive components such as PWSCC, IASCC, FAC and Corrosion Fatigue; Safety analysis: Deterministic analysis + Probabilistic analysis; Many uncertainties of parameters or relationship in general probabilistic analysis such as probabilistic safety assessment (PSA); Bayesian inference: Decreasing uncertainties by updating unknown parameter; Ensuring the reliability of passive components (e.g. pipes) as well as active components (e.g. valve, pump) in NPP's; Developing probabilistic model for failures; Updating the fatigue crack growth rate (FCGR)

Ranking of healthcare programmes based on health outcome, health costs and safe delivery of care in hospital pharmacy practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Brisseau, Lionel; Bussières, Jean-François; Bois, Denis; Vallée, Marc; Racine, Marie-Claude; Bonnici, André

2013-02-01

To establish a consensual and coherent ranking of healthcare programmes that involve the presence of ward-based and clinic-based clinical pharmacists, based on health outcome, health costs and safe delivery of care. This descriptive study was derived from a structured dialogue (Delphi technique) among directors of pharmacy department. We established a quantitative profile of healthcare programmes at five sites that involved the provision of ward-based and clinic-based pharmaceutical care. A summary table of evidence established a unique quality rating per inpatient (clinic-based) or outpatient (ward-based) healthcare programme. Each director rated the perceived impact of pharmaceutical care per inpatient or outpatient healthcare programme on three fields: health outcome, health costs and safe delivery of care. They agreed by consensus on the final ranking of healthcare programmes. A ranking was assigned for each of the 18 healthcare programmes for outpatient care and the 17 healthcare programmes for inpatient care involving the presence of pharmacists, based on health outcome, health costs and safe delivery of care. There was a good correlation between ranking based on data from a 2007-2008 Canadian report on hospital pharmacy practice and the ranking proposed by directors of pharmacy department. Given the often limited human and financial resources, managers should consider the best evidence available on a profession's impact to plan healthcare services within an organization. Data are few on ranking healthcare programmes in order to prioritize which healthcare programme would mostly benefit from the delivery of pharmaceutical care by ward-based and clinic-based pharmacists. © 2012 The Authors. IJPP © 2012 Royal Pharmaceutical Society.

A probabilistic safety analysis of UF{sub 6} handling at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boyd, G.J.; Lewis, S.R.; Summitt, R.L. [Safety and Reliability Optimization Services (SAROS), Inc., Knoxville, TN (United States)

1991-12-31

A probabilistic safety study of UF{sub 6} handling activities at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant has recently been completed. The analysis provides a unique perspective on the safety of UF{sub 6} handling activities. The estimated release frequencies provide an understanding of current risks, and the examination of individual contributors yields a ranking of important plant features and operations. Aside from the probabilistic results, however, there is an even more important benefit derived from a systematic modeling of all operations. The integrated approach employed in the analysis allows the interrelationships among the equipment and the required operations to be explored in depth. This paper summarizes the methods used in the study and provides an overview of some of the technical insights that were obtained. Specific areas of possible improvement in operations are described.

Optimisation of test and maintenance based on probabilistic methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cepin, M.

2001-01-01

This paper presents a method, which based on models and results of probabilistic safety assessment, minimises the nuclear power plant risk by optimisation of arrangement of safety equipment outages. The test and maintenance activities of the safety equipment are timely arranged, so the classical static fault tree models are extended with the time requirements to be capable to model real plant states. A house event matrix is used, which enables modelling of the equipment arrangements through the discrete points of time. The result of the method is determination of such configuration of equipment outages, which result in the minimal risk. Minimal risk is represented by system unavailability. (authors)

Probabilistic Structural Analysis of SSME Turbopump Blades: Probabilistic Geometry Effects

Science.gov (United States)

Nagpal, V. K.

1985-01-01

A probabilistic study was initiated to evaluate the precisions of the geometric and material properties tolerances on the structural response of turbopump blades. To complete this study, a number of important probabilistic variables were identified which are conceived to affect the structural response of the blade. In addition, a methodology was developed to statistically quantify the influence of these probabilistic variables in an optimized way. The identified variables include random geometric and material properties perturbations, different loadings and a probabilistic combination of these loadings. Influences of these probabilistic variables are planned to be quantified by evaluating the blade structural response. Studies of the geometric perturbations were conducted for a flat plate geometry as well as for a space shuttle main engine blade geometry using a special purpose code which uses the finite element approach. Analyses indicate that the variances of the perturbations about given mean values have significant influence on the response.

Probabilistic safety assessment as a standpoint for decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cepin, M.

2001-01-01

This paper focuses on the role of probabilistic safety assessment in decision-making. The prerequisites for use of the results of probabilistic safety assessment and the criteria for the decision-making based on probabilistic safety assessment are discussed. The decision-making process is described. It provides a risk evaluation of impact of the issue under investigation. Selected examples are discussed, which highlight the described process. (authors)

Process for computing geometric perturbations for probabilistic analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Fitch, Simeon H. K. [Charlottesville, VA; Riha, David S [San Antonio, TX; Thacker, Ben H [San Antonio, TX

2012-04-10

A method for computing geometric perturbations for probabilistic analysis. The probabilistic analysis is based on finite element modeling, in which uncertainties in the modeled system are represented by changes in the nominal geometry of the model, referred to as "perturbations". These changes are accomplished using displacement vectors, which are computed for each node of a region of interest and are based on mean-value coordinate calculations.

Using centrality to rank web snippets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jijkoun, V.; de Rijke, M.; Peters, C.; Jijkoun, V.; Mandl, T.; Müller, H.; Oard, D.W.; Peñas, A.; Petras, V.; Santos, D.

2008-01-01

We describe our participation in the WebCLEF 2007 task, targeted at snippet retrieval from web data. Our system ranks snippets based on a simple similarity-based centrality, inspired by the web page ranking algorithms. We experimented with retrieval units (sentences and paragraphs) and with the

Ranking Specific Sets of Objects.

Science.gov (United States)

Maly, Jan; Woltran, Stefan

2017-01-01

Ranking sets of objects based on an order between the single elements has been thoroughly studied in the literature. In particular, it has been shown that it is in general impossible to find a total ranking - jointly satisfying properties as dominance and independence - on the whole power set of objects. However, in many applications certain elements from the entire power set might not be required and can be neglected in the ranking process. For instance, certain sets might be ruled out due to hard constraints or are not satisfying some background theory. In this paper, we treat the computational problem whether an order on a given subset of the power set of elements satisfying different variants of dominance and independence can be found, given a ranking on the elements. We show that this problem is tractable for partial rankings and NP-complete for total rankings.

A common fixed point for operators in probabilistic normed spaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghaemi, M.B.; Lafuerza-Guillen, Bernardo; Razani, A.

2009-01-01

Probabilistic Metric spaces was introduced by Karl Menger. Alsina, Schweizer and Sklar gave a general definition of probabilistic normed space based on the definition of Menger [Alsina C, Schweizer B, Sklar A. On the definition of a probabilistic normed spaces. Aequationes Math 1993;46:91-8]. Here, we consider the equicontinuity of a class of linear operators in probabilistic normed spaces and finally, a common fixed point theorem is proved. Application to quantum Mechanic is considered.

Identification of probabilistic approaches and map-based navigation ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

B Madhevan

2018-02-07

Feb 7, 2018 ... consists of three processes: map learning (ML), localization and PP [73–76]. (i) ML ...... [83] Thrun S 2001 A probabilistic online mapping algorithm for teams of .... for target tracking using fuzzy logic controller in game theoretic ...

Global optimization of maintenance and surveillance testing based on reliability and probabilistic safety assessment. Research project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martorell, S.; Serradell, V.; Munoz, A.; Sanchez, A.

1997-01-01

Background, objective, scope, detailed working plan and follow-up and final product of the project ''Global optimization of maintenance and surveillance testing based on reliability and probabilistic safety assessment'' are described

Multiple graph regularized protein domain ranking

KAUST Repository

Wang, Jim Jing-Yan

2012-11-19

Background: Protein domain ranking is a fundamental task in structural biology. Most protein domain ranking methods rely on the pairwise comparison of protein domains while neglecting the global manifold structure of the protein domain database. Recently, graph regularized ranking that exploits the global structure of the graph defined by the pairwise similarities has been proposed. However, the existing graph regularized ranking methods are very sensitive to the choice of the graph model and parameters, and this remains a difficult problem for most of the protein domain ranking methods.Results: To tackle this problem, we have developed the Multiple Graph regularized Ranking algorithm, MultiG-Rank. Instead of using a single graph to regularize the ranking scores, MultiG-Rank approximates the intrinsic manifold of protein domain distribution by combining multiple initial graphs for the regularization. Graph weights are learned with ranking scores jointly and automatically, by alternately minimizing an objective function in an iterative algorithm. Experimental results on a subset of the ASTRAL SCOP protein domain database demonstrate that MultiG-Rank achieves a better ranking performance than single graph regularized ranking methods and pairwise similarity based ranking methods.Conclusion: The problem of graph model and parameter selection in graph regularized protein domain ranking can be solved effectively by combining multiple graphs. This aspect of generalization introduces a new frontier in applying multiple graphs to solving protein domain ranking applications. 2012 Wang et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Multiple graph regularized protein domain ranking

KAUST Repository

Wang, Jim Jing-Yan; Bensmail, Halima; Gao, Xin

2012-01-01

Background: Protein domain ranking is a fundamental task in structural biology. Most protein domain ranking methods rely on the pairwise comparison of protein domains while neglecting the global manifold structure of the protein domain database. Recently, graph regularized ranking that exploits the global structure of the graph defined by the pairwise similarities has been proposed. However, the existing graph regularized ranking methods are very sensitive to the choice of the graph model and parameters, and this remains a difficult problem for most of the protein domain ranking methods.Results: To tackle this problem, we have developed the Multiple Graph regularized Ranking algorithm, MultiG-Rank. Instead of using a single graph to regularize the ranking scores, MultiG-Rank approximates the intrinsic manifold of protein domain distribution by combining multiple initial graphs for the regularization. Graph weights are learned with ranking scores jointly and automatically, by alternately minimizing an objective function in an iterative algorithm. Experimental results on a subset of the ASTRAL SCOP protein domain database demonstrate that MultiG-Rank achieves a better ranking performance than single graph regularized ranking methods and pairwise similarity based ranking methods.Conclusion: The problem of graph model and parameter selection in graph regularized protein domain ranking can be solved effectively by combining multiple graphs. This aspect of generalization introduces a new frontier in applying multiple graphs to solving protein domain ranking applications. 2012 Wang et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Multiple graph regularized protein domain ranking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang Jim

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Protein domain ranking is a fundamental task in structural biology. Most protein domain ranking methods rely on the pairwise comparison of protein domains while neglecting the global manifold structure of the protein domain database. Recently, graph regularized ranking that exploits the global structure of the graph defined by the pairwise similarities has been proposed. However, the existing graph regularized ranking methods are very sensitive to the choice of the graph model and parameters, and this remains a difficult problem for most of the protein domain ranking methods. Results To tackle this problem, we have developed the Multiple Graph regularized Ranking algorithm, MultiG-Rank. Instead of using a single graph to regularize the ranking scores, MultiG-Rank approximates the intrinsic manifold of protein domain distribution by combining multiple initial graphs for the regularization. Graph weights are learned with ranking scores jointly and automatically, by alternately minimizing an objective function in an iterative algorithm. Experimental results on a subset of the ASTRAL SCOP protein domain database demonstrate that MultiG-Rank achieves a better ranking performance than single graph regularized ranking methods and pairwise similarity based ranking methods. Conclusion The problem of graph model and parameter selection in graph regularized protein domain ranking can be solved effectively by combining multiple graphs. This aspect of generalization introduces a new frontier in applying multiple graphs to solving protein domain ranking applications.

Use of the LUS in sequence allele designations to facilitate probabilistic genotyping of NGS-based STR typing results.

Science.gov (United States)

Just, Rebecca S; Irwin, Jodi A

2018-05-01

Some of the expected advantages of next generation sequencing (NGS) for short tandem repeat (STR) typing include enhanced mixture detection and genotype resolution via sequence variation among non-homologous alleles of the same length. However, at the same time that NGS methods for forensic DNA typing have advanced in recent years, many caseworking laboratories have implemented or are transitioning to probabilistic genotyping to assist the interpretation of complex autosomal STR typing results. Current probabilistic software programs are designed for length-based data, and were not intended to accommodate sequence strings as the product input. Yet to leverage the benefits of NGS for enhanced genotyping and mixture deconvolution, the sequence variation among same-length products must be utilized in some form. Here, we propose use of the longest uninterrupted stretch (LUS) in allele designations as a simple method to represent sequence variation within the STR repeat regions and facilitate - in the nearterm - probabilistic interpretation of NGS-based typing results. An examination of published population data indicated that a reference LUS region is straightforward to define for most autosomal STR loci, and that using repeat unit plus LUS length as the allele designator can represent greater than 80% of the alleles detected by sequencing. A proof of concept study performed using a freely available probabilistic software demonstrated that the LUS length can be used in allele designations when a program does not require alleles to be integers, and that utilizing sequence information improves interpretation of both single-source and mixed contributor STR typing results as compared to using repeat unit information alone. The LUS concept for allele designation maintains the repeat-based allele nomenclature that will permit backward compatibility to extant STR databases, and the LUS lengths themselves will be concordant regardless of the NGS assay or analysis tools

On Probabilistic Alpha-Fuzzy Fixed Points and Related Convergence Results in Probabilistic Metric and Menger Spaces under Some Pompeiu-Hausdorff-Like Probabilistic Contractive Conditions

OpenAIRE

De la Sen, M.

2015-01-01

In the framework of complete probabilistic metric spaces and, in particular, in probabilistic Menger spaces, this paper investigates some relevant properties of convergence of sequences to probabilistic α-fuzzy fixed points under some types of probabilistic contractive conditions.

GUI program to compute probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, Jin Soo; Chi, H. C.; Cho, J. C.; Park, J. H.; Kim, K. G.; Im, I. S.

2006-12-01

The development of program to compute probabilistic seismic hazard is completed based on Graphic User Interface(GUI). The main program consists of three part - the data input processes, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and result output processes. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis needs various input data which represent attenuation formulae, seismic zoning map, and earthquake event catalog. The input procedure of previous programs based on text interface take a much time to prepare the data. The data cannot be checked directly on screen to prevent input erroneously in existing methods. The new program simplifies the input process and enable to check the data graphically in order to minimize the artificial error within limits of the possibility

Probabilistic Insurance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wakker, P.P.; Thaler, R.H.; Tversky, A.

1997-01-01

Probabilistic insurance is an insurance policy involving a small probability that the consumer will not be reimbursed. Survey data suggest that people dislike probabilistic insurance and demand more than a 20% reduction in premium to compensate for a 1% default risk. These observations cannot be

Probabilistic Insurance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P.P. Wakker (Peter); R.H. Thaler (Richard); A. Tversky (Amos)

1997-01-01

textabstractProbabilistic insurance is an insurance policy involving a small probability that the consumer will not be reimbursed. Survey data suggest that people dislike probabilistic insurance and demand more than a 20% reduction in the premium to compensate for a 1% default risk. While these

Probabilistic Design of Offshore Structural Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1988-01-01

Probabilistic design of structural systems is considered in this paper. The reliability is estimated using first-order reliability methods (FORM). The design problem is formulated as the optimization problem to minimize a given cost function such that the reliability of the single elements...... satisfies given requirements or such that the systems reliability satisfies a given requirement. Based on a sensitivity analysis optimization procedures to solve the optimization problems are presented. Two of these procedures solve the system reliability-based optimization problem sequentially using quasi......-analytical derivatives. Finally an example of probabilistic design of an offshore structure is considered....

Probabilistic Design of Offshore Structural Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

Probabilistic design of structural systems is considered in this paper. The reliability is estimated using first-order reliability methods (FORM). The design problem is formulated as the optimization problem to minimize a given cost function such that the reliability of the single elements...... satisfies given requirements or such that the systems reliability satisfies a given requirement. Based on a sensitivity analysis optimization procedures to solve the optimization problems are presented. Two of these procedures solve the system reliability-based optimization problem sequentially using quasi......-analytical derivatives. Finally an example of probabilistic design of an offshore structure is considered....

Probabilistic Modeling of Timber Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Köhler, J.D.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, Michael Havbro

2005-01-01

The present paper contains a proposal for the probabilistic modeling of timber material properties. It is produced in the context of the Probabilistic Model Code (PMC) of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) and of the COST action E24 'Reliability of Timber Structures'. The present...... proposal is based on discussions and comments from participants of the COST E24 action and the members of the JCSS. The paper contains a description of the basic reference properties for timber strength parameters and ultimate limit state equations for components and connections. The recommended...

Comparative study of probabilistic methodologies for small signal stability assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rueda, J.L.; Colome, D.G. [Universidad Nacional de San Juan (IEE-UNSJ), San Juan (Argentina). Inst. de Energia Electrica], Emails: joseluisrt@iee.unsj.edu.ar, colome@iee.unsj.edu.ar

2009-07-01

Traditional deterministic approaches for small signal stability assessment (SSSA) are unable to properly reflect the existing uncertainties in real power systems. Hence, the probabilistic analysis of small signal stability (SSS) is attracting more attention by power system engineers. This paper discusses and compares two probabilistic methodologies for SSSA, which are based on the two point estimation method and the so-called Monte Carlo method, respectively. The comparisons are based on the results obtained for several power systems of different sizes and with different SSS performance. It is demonstrated that although with an analytical approach the amount of computation of probabilistic SSSA can be reduced, the different degrees of approximations that are adopted, lead to deceptive results. Conversely, Monte Carlo based probabilistic SSSA can be carried out with reasonable computational effort while holding satisfactory estimation precision. (author)

Overview of Future of Probabilistic Methods and RMSL Technology and the Probabilistic Methods Education Initiative for the US Army at the SAE G-11 Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

Singhal, Surendra N.

2003-01-01

The SAE G-11 RMSL Division and Probabilistic Methods Committee meeting sponsored by the Picatinny Arsenal during March 1-3, 2004 at Westin Morristown, will report progress on projects for probabilistic assessment of Army system and launch an initiative for probabilistic education. The meeting features several Army and industry Senior executives and Ivy League Professor to provide an industry/government/academia forum to review RMSL technology; reliability and probabilistic technology; reliability-based design methods; software reliability; and maintainability standards. With over 100 members including members with national/international standing, the mission of the G-11s Probabilistic Methods Committee is to enable/facilitate rapid deployment of probabilistic technology to enhance the competitiveness of our industries by better, faster, greener, smarter, affordable and reliable product development.

A Ranking Approach to Genomic Selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Blondel, Mathieu; Onogi, Akio; Iwata, Hiroyoshi; Ueda, Naonori

2015-01-01

Genomic selection (GS) is a recent selective breeding method which uses predictive models based on whole-genome molecular markers. Until now, existing studies formulated GS as the problem of modeling an individual's breeding value for a particular trait of interest, i.e., as a regression problem. To assess predictive accuracy of the model, the Pearson correlation between observed and predicted trait values was used. In this paper, we propose to formulate GS as the problem of ranking individuals according to their breeding value. Our proposed framework allows us to employ machine learning methods for ranking which had previously not been considered in the GS literature. To assess ranking accuracy of a model, we introduce a new measure originating from the information retrieval literature called normalized discounted cumulative gain (NDCG). NDCG rewards more strongly models which assign a high rank to individuals with high breeding value. Therefore, NDCG reflects a prerequisite objective in selective breeding: accurate selection of individuals with high breeding value. We conducted a comparison of 10 existing regression methods and 3 new ranking methods on 6 datasets, consisting of 4 plant species and 25 traits. Our experimental results suggest that tree-based ensemble methods including McRank, Random Forests and Gradient Boosting Regression Trees achieve excellent ranking accuracy. RKHS regression and RankSVM also achieve good accuracy when used with an RBF kernel. Traditional regression methods such as Bayesian lasso, wBSR and BayesC were found less suitable for ranking. Pearson correlation was found to correlate poorly with NDCG. Our study suggests two important messages. First, ranking methods are a promising research direction in GS. Second, NDCG can be a useful evaluation measure for GS.

Probabilistic atlas based labeling of the cerebral vessel tree

Science.gov (United States)

Van de Giessen, Martijn; Janssen, Jasper P.; Brouwer, Patrick A.; Reiber, Johan H. C.; Lelieveldt, Boudewijn P. F.; Dijkstra, Jouke

2015-03-01

Preoperative imaging of the cerebral vessel tree is essential for planning therapy on intracranial stenoses and aneurysms. Usually, a magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) or computed tomography angiography (CTA) is acquired from which the cerebral vessel tree is segmented. Accurate analysis is helped by the labeling of the cerebral vessels, but labeling is non-trivial due to anatomical topological variability and missing branches due to acquisition issues. In recent literature, labeling the cerebral vasculature around the Circle of Willis has mainly been approached as a graph-based problem. The most successful method, however, requires the definition of all possible permutations of missing vessels, which limits application to subsets of the tree and ignores spatial information about the vessel locations. This research aims to perform labeling using probabilistic atlases that model spatial vessel and label likelihoods. A cerebral vessel tree is aligned to a probabilistic atlas and subsequently each vessel is labeled by computing the maximum label likelihood per segment from label-specific atlases. The proposed method was validated on 25 segmented cerebral vessel trees. Labeling accuracies were close to 100% for large vessels, but dropped to 50-60% for small vessels that were only present in less than 50% of the set. With this work we showed that using solely spatial information of the vessel labels, vessel segments from stable vessels (>50% presence) were reliably classified. This spatial information will form the basis for a future labeling strategy with a very loose topological model.

Co-integration Rank Testing under Conditional Heteroskedasticity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cavaliere, Guiseppe; Rahbæk, Anders; Taylor, A.M. Robert

null distributions of the rank statistics coincide with those derived by previous authors who assume either i.i.d. or (strict and covariance) stationary martingale difference innovations. We then propose wild bootstrap implementations of the co-integrating rank tests and demonstrate that the associated...... bootstrap rank statistics replicate the first-order asymptotic null distributions of the rank statistics. We show the same is also true of the corresponding rank tests based on the i.i.d. bootstrap of Swensen (2006). The wild bootstrap, however, has the important property that, unlike the i.i.d. bootstrap......, it preserves in the re-sampled data the pattern of heteroskedasticity present in the original shocks. Consistent with this, numerical evidence sug- gests that, relative to tests based on the asymptotic critical values or the i.i.d. bootstrap, the wild bootstrap rank tests perform very well in small samples un...

A Multiobjective Programming Method for Ranking All Units Based on Compensatory DEA Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haifang Cheng

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In order to rank all decision making units (DMUs on the same basis, this paper proposes a multiobjective programming (MOP model based on a compensatory data envelopment analysis (DEA model to derive a common set of weights that can be used for the full ranking of all DMUs. We first revisit a compensatory DEA model for ranking all units, point out the existing problem for solving the model, and present an improved algorithm for which an approximate global optimal solution of the model can be obtained by solving a sequence of linear programming. Then, we applied the key idea of the compensatory DEA model to develop the MOP model in which the objectives are to simultaneously maximize all common weights under constraints that the sum of efficiency values of all DMUs is equal to unity and the sum of all common weights is also equal to unity. In order to solve the MOP model, we transform it into a single objective programming (SOP model using a fuzzy programming method and solve the SOP model using the proposed approximation algorithm. To illustrate the ranking method using the proposed method, two numerical examples are solved.

Integration of Probabilistic Exposure Assessment and Probabilistic Hazard Characterization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Voet, van der H.; Slob, W.

2007-01-01

A method is proposed for integrated probabilistic risk assessment where exposure assessment and hazard characterization are both included in a probabilistic way. The aim is to specify the probability that a random individual from a defined (sub)population will have an exposure high enough to cause a

Pathway Relevance Ranking for Tumor Samples through Network-Based Data Integration.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lieven P C Verbeke

Full Text Available The study of cancer, a highly heterogeneous disease with different causes and clinical outcomes, requires a multi-angle approach and the collection of large multi-omics datasets that, ideally, should be analyzed simultaneously. We present a new pathway relevance ranking method that is able to prioritize pathways according to the information contained in any combination of tumor related omics datasets. Key to the method is the conversion of all available data into a single comprehensive network representation containing not only genes but also individual patient samples. Additionally, all data are linked through a network of previously identified molecular interactions. We demonstrate the performance of the new method by applying it to breast and ovarian cancer datasets from The Cancer Genome Atlas. By integrating gene expression, copy number, mutation and methylation data, the method's potential to identify key pathways involved in breast cancer development shared by different molecular subtypes is illustrated. Interestingly, certain pathways were ranked equally important for different subtypes, even when the underlying (epi-genetic disturbances were diverse. Next to prioritizing universally high-scoring pathways, the pathway ranking method was able to identify subtype-specific pathways. Often the score of a pathway could not be motivated by a single mutation, copy number or methylation alteration, but rather by a combination of genetic and epi-genetic disturbances, stressing the need for a network-based data integration approach. The analysis of ovarian tumors, as a function of survival-based subtypes, demonstrated the method's ability to correctly identify key pathways, irrespective of tumor subtype. A differential analysis of survival-based subtypes revealed several pathways with higher importance for the bad-outcome patient group than for the good-outcome patient group. Many of the pathways exhibiting higher importance for the bad

A Markov Chain Approach to Probabilistic Swarm Guidance

Science.gov (United States)

Acikmese, Behcet; Bayard, David S.

2012-01-01

This paper introduces a probabilistic guidance approach for the coordination of swarms of autonomous agents. The main idea is to drive the swarm to a prescribed density distribution in a prescribed region of the configuration space. In its simplest form, the probabilistic approach is completely decentralized and does not require communication or collabo- ration between agents. Agents make statistically independent probabilistic decisions based solely on their own state, that ultimately guides the swarm to the desired density distribution in the configuration space. In addition to being completely decentralized, the probabilistic guidance approach has a novel autonomous self-repair property: Once the desired swarm density distribution is attained, the agents automatically repair any damage to the distribution without collaborating and without any knowledge about the damage.

Ranking Support Vector Machine with Kernel Approximation.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Kai; Li, Rongchun; Dou, Yong; Liang, Zhengfa; Lv, Qi

2017-01-01

Learning to rank algorithm has become important in recent years due to its successful application in information retrieval, recommender system, and computational biology, and so forth. Ranking support vector machine (RankSVM) is one of the state-of-art ranking models and has been favorably used. Nonlinear RankSVM (RankSVM with nonlinear kernels) can give higher accuracy than linear RankSVM (RankSVM with a linear kernel) for complex nonlinear ranking problem. However, the learning methods for nonlinear RankSVM are still time-consuming because of the calculation of kernel matrix. In this paper, we propose a fast ranking algorithm based on kernel approximation to avoid computing the kernel matrix. We explore two types of kernel approximation methods, namely, the Nyström method and random Fourier features. Primal truncated Newton method is used to optimize the pairwise L2-loss (squared Hinge-loss) objective function of the ranking model after the nonlinear kernel approximation. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method gets a much faster training speed than kernel RankSVM and achieves comparable or better performance over state-of-the-art ranking algorithms.

Ranking Support Vector Machine with Kernel Approximation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kai Chen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Learning to rank algorithm has become important in recent years due to its successful application in information retrieval, recommender system, and computational biology, and so forth. Ranking support vector machine (RankSVM is one of the state-of-art ranking models and has been favorably used. Nonlinear RankSVM (RankSVM with nonlinear kernels can give higher accuracy than linear RankSVM (RankSVM with a linear kernel for complex nonlinear ranking problem. However, the learning methods for nonlinear RankSVM are still time-consuming because of the calculation of kernel matrix. In this paper, we propose a fast ranking algorithm based on kernel approximation to avoid computing the kernel matrix. We explore two types of kernel approximation methods, namely, the Nyström method and random Fourier features. Primal truncated Newton method is used to optimize the pairwise L2-loss (squared Hinge-loss objective function of the ranking model after the nonlinear kernel approximation. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method gets a much faster training speed than kernel RankSVM and achieves comparable or better performance over state-of-the-art ranking algorithms.

The optimized expansion based low-rank method for wavefield extrapolation

KAUST Repository

Wu, Zedong

2014-03-01

Spectral methods are fast becoming an indispensable tool for wavefield extrapolation, especially in anisotropic media because it tends to be dispersion and artifact free as well as highly accurate when solving the wave equation. However, for inhomogeneous media, we face difficulties in dealing with the mixed space-wavenumber domain extrapolation operator efficiently. To solve this problem, we evaluated an optimized expansion method that can approximate this operator with a low-rank variable separation representation. The rank defines the number of inverse Fourier transforms for each time extrapolation step, and thus, the lower the rank, the faster the extrapolation. The method uses optimization instead of matrix decomposition to find the optimal wavenumbers and velocities needed to approximate the full operator with its explicit low-rank representation. As a result, we obtain lower rank representations compared with the standard low-rank method within reasonable accuracy and thus cheaper extrapolations. Additional bounds set on the range of propagated wavenumbers to adhere to the physical wave limits yield unconditionally stable extrapolations regardless of the time step. An application on the BP model provided superior results compared to those obtained using the decomposition approach. For transversely isotopic media, because we used the pure P-wave dispersion relation, we obtained solutions that were free of the shear wave artifacts, and the algorithm does not require that n > 0. In addition, the required rank for the optimization approach to obtain high accuracy in anisotropic media was lower than that obtained by the decomposition approach, and thus, it was more efficient. A reverse time migration result for the BP tilted transverse isotropy model using this method as a wave propagator demonstrated the ability of the algorithm.

A Universal Rank-Size Law

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-01

A mere hyperbolic law, like the Zipf’s law power function, is often inadequate to describe rank-size relationships. An alternative theoretical distribution is proposed based on theoretical physics arguments starting from the Yule-Simon distribution. A modeling is proposed leading to a universal form. A theoretical suggestion for the “best (or optimal) distribution”, is provided through an entropy argument. The ranking of areas through the number of cities in various countries and some sport competition ranking serves for the present illustrations. PMID:27812192

Sensitivity ranking for freshwater invertebrates towards hydrocarbon contaminants.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerner, Nadine V; Cailleaud, Kevin; Bassères, Anne; Liess, Matthias; Beketov, Mikhail A

2017-11-01

Hydrocarbons have an utmost economical importance but may also cause substantial ecological impacts due to accidents or inadequate transportation and use. Currently, freshwater biomonitoring methods lack an indicator that can unequivocally reflect the impacts caused by hydrocarbons while being independent from effects of other stressors. The aim of the present study was to develop a sensitivity ranking for freshwater invertebrates towards hydrocarbon contaminants, which can be used in hydrocarbon-specific bioindicators. We employed the Relative Sensitivity method and developed the sensitivity ranking S hydrocarbons based on literature ecotoxicological data supplemented with rapid and mesocosm test results. A first validation of the sensitivity ranking based on an earlier field study has been conducted and revealed the S hydrocarbons ranking to be promising for application in sensitivity based indicators. Thus, the first results indicate that the ranking can serve as the core component of future hydrocarbon-specific and sensitivity trait based bioindicators.

Transitive probabilistic CLIR models.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kraaij, W.; de Jong, Franciska M.G.

2004-01-01

Transitive translation could be a useful technique to enlarge the number of supported language pairs for a cross-language information retrieval (CLIR) system in a cost-effective manner. The paper describes several setups for transitive translation based on probabilistic translation models. The

Rule-based versus probabilistic selection for active surveillance using three definitions of insignificant prostate cancer

NARCIS (Netherlands)

L.D.F. Venderbos (Lionne); M.J. Roobol-Bouts (Monique); C.H. Bangma (Chris); R.C.N. van den Bergh (Roderick); L.P. Bokhorst (Leonard); D. Nieboer (Daan); Godtman, R; J. Hugosson (Jonas); van der Kwast, T; E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout)

2016-01-01

textabstractTo study whether probabilistic selection by the use of a nomogram could improve patient selection for active surveillance (AS) compared to the various sets of rule-based AS inclusion criteria currently used. We studied Dutch and Swedish patients participating in the European Randomized

Probabilistic Logical Characterization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hermanns, Holger; Parma, Augusto; Segala, Roberto

2011-01-01

Probabilistic automata exhibit both probabilistic and non-deterministic choice. They are therefore a powerful semantic foundation for modeling concurrent systems with random phenomena arising in many applications ranging from artificial intelligence, security, systems biology to performance...... modeling. Several variations of bisimulation and simulation relations have proved to be useful as means to abstract and compare different automata. This paper develops a taxonomy of logical characterizations of these relations on image-finite and image-infinite probabilistic automata....

Probabilistic metric spaces

CERN Document Server

Schweizer, B

2005-01-01

Topics include special classes of probabilistic metric spaces, topologies, and several related structures, such as probabilistic normed and inner-product spaces. 1983 edition, updated with 3 new appendixes. Includes 17 illustrations.

Probabilistic record linkage.

Science.gov (United States)

Sayers, Adrian; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Blom, Ashley W; Steele, Fiona

2016-06-01

Studies involving the use of probabilistic record linkage are becoming increasingly common. However, the methods underpinning probabilistic record linkage are not widely taught or understood, and therefore these studies can appear to be a 'black box' research tool. In this article, we aim to describe the process of probabilistic record linkage through a simple exemplar. We first introduce the concept of deterministic linkage and contrast this with probabilistic linkage. We illustrate each step of the process using a simple exemplar and describe the data structure required to perform a probabilistic linkage. We describe the process of calculating and interpreting matched weights and how to convert matched weights into posterior probabilities of a match using Bayes theorem. We conclude this article with a brief discussion of some of the computational demands of record linkage, how you might assess the quality of your linkage algorithm, and how epidemiologists can maximize the value of their record-linked research using robust record linkage methods. © The Author 2015; Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

PageRank and rank-reversal dependence on the damping factor

Science.gov (United States)

Son, S.-W.; Christensen, C.; Grassberger, P.; Paczuski, M.

2012-12-01

PageRank (PR) is an algorithm originally developed by Google to evaluate the importance of web pages. Considering how deeply rooted Google's PR algorithm is to gathering relevant information or to the success of modern businesses, the question of rank stability and choice of the damping factor (a parameter in the algorithm) is clearly important. We investigate PR as a function of the damping factor d on a network obtained from a domain of the World Wide Web, finding that rank reversal happens frequently over a broad range of PR (and of d). We use three different correlation measures, Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall, to study rank reversal as d changes, and we show that the correlation of PR vectors drops rapidly as d changes from its frequently cited value, d0=0.85. Rank reversal is also observed by measuring the Spearman and Kendall rank correlation, which evaluate relative ranks rather than absolute PR. Rank reversal happens not only in directed networks containing rank sinks but also in a single strongly connected component, which by definition does not contain any sinks. We relate rank reversals to rank pockets and bottlenecks in the directed network structure. For the network studied, the relative rank is more stable by our measures around d=0.65 than at d=d0.

PageRank and rank-reversal dependence on the damping factor.

Science.gov (United States)

Son, S-W; Christensen, C; Grassberger, P; Paczuski, M

2012-12-01

PageRank (PR) is an algorithm originally developed by Google to evaluate the importance of web pages. Considering how deeply rooted Google's PR algorithm is to gathering relevant information or to the success of modern businesses, the question of rank stability and choice of the damping factor (a parameter in the algorithm) is clearly important. We investigate PR as a function of the damping factor d on a network obtained from a domain of the World Wide Web, finding that rank reversal happens frequently over a broad range of PR (and of d). We use three different correlation measures, Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall, to study rank reversal as d changes, and we show that the correlation of PR vectors drops rapidly as d changes from its frequently cited value, d_{0}=0.85. Rank reversal is also observed by measuring the Spearman and Kendall rank correlation, which evaluate relative ranks rather than absolute PR. Rank reversal happens not only in directed networks containing rank sinks but also in a single strongly connected component, which by definition does not contain any sinks. We relate rank reversals to rank pockets and bottlenecks in the directed network structure. For the network studied, the relative rank is more stable by our measures around d=0.65 than at d=d_{0}.

Rank-based model selection for multiple ions quantum tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guţă, Mădălin; Kypraios, Theodore; Dryden, Ian

2012-01-01

The statistical analysis of measurement data has become a key component of many quantum engineering experiments. As standard full state tomography becomes unfeasible for large dimensional quantum systems, one needs to exploit prior information and the ‘sparsity’ properties of the experimental state in order to reduce the dimensionality of the estimation problem. In this paper we propose model selection as a general principle for finding the simplest, or most parsimonious explanation of the data, by fitting different models and choosing the estimator with the best trade-off between likelihood fit and model complexity. We apply two well established model selection methods—the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC)—two models consisting of states of fixed rank and datasets such as are currently produced in multiple ions experiments. We test the performance of AIC and BIC on randomly chosen low rank states of four ions, and study the dependence of the selected rank with the number of measurement repetitions for one ion states. We then apply the methods to real data from a four ions experiment aimed at creating a Smolin state of rank 4. By applying the two methods together with the Pearson χ 2 test we conclude that the data can be suitably described with a model whose rank is between 7 and 9. Additionally we find that the mean square error of the maximum likelihood estimator for pure states is close to that of the optimal over all possible measurements. (paper)

The Role of Language in Building Probabilistic Thinking

Science.gov (United States)

Nacarato, Adair Mendes; Grando, Regina Célia

2014-01-01

This paper is based on research that investigated the development of probabilistic language and thinking by students 10-12 years old. The focus was on the adequate use of probabilistic terms in social practice. A series of tasks was developed for the investigation and completed by the students working in groups. The discussions were video recorded…

GUI program to compute probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, Jin Soo; Chi, H. C.; Cho, J. C.; Park, J. H.; Kim, K. G.; Im, I. S.

2005-12-01

The first stage of development of program to compute probabilistic seismic hazard is completed based on Graphic User Interface (GUI). The main program consists of three part - the data input processes, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and result output processes. The first part has developed and others are developing now in this term. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis needs various input data which represent attenuation formulae, seismic zoning map, and earthquake event catalog. The input procedure of previous programs based on text interface take a much time to prepare the data. The data cannot be checked directly on screen to prevent input erroneously in existing methods. The new program simplifies the input process and enable to check the data graphically in order to minimize the artificial error within the limits of the possibility

Aging and a genetic KIBRA polymorphism interactively affect feedback- and observation-based probabilistic classification learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Schuck, Nicolas W; Petok, Jessica R; Meeter, Martijn; Schjeide, Brit-Maren M; Schröder, Julia; Bertram, Lars; Gluck, Mark A; Li, Shu-Chen

2018-01-01

Probabilistic category learning involves complex interactions between the hippocampus and striatum that may depend on whether acquisition occurs via feedback or observation. Little is known about how healthy aging affects these processes. We tested whether age-related behavioral differences in probabilistic category learning from feedback or observation depend on a genetic factor known to influence individual differences in hippocampal function, the KIBRA gene (single nucleotide polymorphism rs17070145). Results showed comparable age-related performance impairments in observational as well as feedback-based learning. Moreover, genetic analyses indicated an age-related interactive effect of KIBRA on learning: among older adults, the beneficial T-allele was positively associated with learning from feedback, but negatively with learning from observation. In younger adults, no effects of KIBRA were found. Our results add behavioral genetic evidence to emerging data showing age-related differences in how neural resources relate to memory functions, namely that hippocampal and striatal contributions to probabilistic category learning may vary with age. Our findings highlight the effects genetic factors can have on differential age-related decline of different memory functions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Social class rank, essentialism, and punitive judgment.

Science.gov (United States)

Kraus, Michael W; Keltner, Dacher

2013-08-01

Recent evidence suggests that perceptions of social class rank influence a variety of social cognitive tendencies, from patterns of causal attribution to moral judgment. In the present studies we tested the hypotheses that upper-class rank individuals would be more likely to endorse essentialist lay theories of social class categories (i.e., that social class is founded in genetically based, biological differences) than would lower-class rank individuals and that these beliefs would decrease support for restorative justice--which seeks to rehabilitate offenders, rather than punish unlawful action. Across studies, higher social class rank was associated with increased essentialism of social class categories (Studies 1, 2, and 4) and decreased support for restorative justice (Study 4). Moreover, manipulated essentialist beliefs decreased preferences for restorative justice (Study 3), and the association between social class rank and class-based essentialist theories was explained by the tendency to endorse beliefs in a just world (Study 2). Implications for how class-based essentialist beliefs potentially constrain social opportunity and mobility are discussed.

Universal scaling in sports ranking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deng Weibing; Li Wei; Cai Xu; Bulou, Alain; Wang Qiuping A

2012-01-01

Ranking is a ubiquitous phenomenon in human society. On the web pages of Forbes, one may find all kinds of rankings, such as the world's most powerful people, the world's richest people, the highest-earning tennis players, and so on and so forth. Herewith, we study a specific kind—sports ranking systems in which players' scores and/or prize money are accrued based on their performances in different matches. By investigating 40 data samples which span 12 different sports, we find that the distributions of scores and/or prize money follow universal power laws, with exponents nearly identical for most sports. In order to understand the origin of this universal scaling we focus on the tennis ranking systems. By checking the data we find that, for any pair of players, the probability that the higher-ranked player tops the lower-ranked opponent is proportional to the rank difference between the pair. Such a dependence can be well fitted to a sigmoidal function. By using this feature, we propose a simple toy model which can simulate the competition of players in different matches. The simulations yield results consistent with the empirical findings. Extensive simulation studies indicate that the model is quite robust with respect to the modifications of some parameters. (paper)

Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. H. Ramos

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also started focusing attention on ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision-makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualisation, but also requires understanding how decision-makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision-makers. Answers were collected and analysed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if we indeed make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts.

Predictor-weighting strategies for probabilistic wind power forecasting with an analog ensemble

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Constantin Junk

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Unlike deterministic forecasts, probabilistic predictions provide estimates of uncertainty, which is an additional value for decision-making. Previous studies have proposed the analog ensemble (AnEn, which is a technique to generate uncertainty information from a purely deterministic forecast. The objective of this study is to improve the AnEn performance for wind power forecasts by developing static and dynamic weighting strategies, which optimize the predictor combination with a brute-force continuous ranked probability score (CRPS minimization and a principal component analysis (PCA of the predictors. Predictors are taken from the high-resolution deterministic forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, including forecasts of wind at several heights, geopotential height, pressure, and temperature, among others. The weighting strategies are compared at five wind farms in Europe and the U.S. situated in regions with different terrain complexity, both on and offshore, and significantly improve the deterministic and probabilistic AnEn forecast performance compared to the AnEn with 10‑m wind speed and direction as predictors and compared to PCA-based approaches. The AnEn methodology also provides reliable estimation of the forecast uncertainty. The optimized predictor combinations are strongly dependent on terrain complexity, local wind regimes, and atmospheric stratification. Since the proposed predictor-weighting strategies can accomplish both the selection of relevant predictors as well as finding their optimal weights, the AnEn performance is improved by up to 20 % at on and offshore sites.

Documentation design for probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parkinson, W.J.; von Herrmann, J.L.

1985-01-01

This paper describes a framework for documentation design of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and is based on the EPRI document NP-3470 ''Documentation Design for Probabilistic Risk Assessment''. The goals for PRA documentation are stated. Four audiences are identified which PRA documentation must satisfy, and the documentation consistent with the needs of the various audiences are discussed, i.e., the Summary Report, the Executive Summary, the Main Report, and Appendices. The authors recommend the documentation specifications discussed herein as guides rather than rigid definitions

Extreme learning machine for ranking: generalization analysis and applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Hong; Peng, Jiangtao; Zhou, Yicong; Li, Luoqing; Pan, Zhibin

2014-05-01

The extreme learning machine (ELM) has attracted increasing attention recently with its successful applications in classification and regression. In this paper, we investigate the generalization performance of ELM-based ranking. A new regularized ranking algorithm is proposed based on the combinations of activation functions in ELM. The generalization analysis is established for the ELM-based ranking (ELMRank) in terms of the covering numbers of hypothesis space. Empirical results on the benchmark datasets show the competitive performance of the ELMRank over the state-of-the-art ranking methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ranking and selection of commercial off-the-shelf using fuzzy distance based approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rakesh Garg

2015-06-01

Full Text Available There is a tremendous growth of the use of the component based software engineering (CBSE approach for the development of software systems. The selection of the best suited COTS components which fulfils the necessary requirement for the development of software(s has become a major challenge for the software developers. The complexity of the optimal selection problem increases with an increase in alternative potential COTS components and the corresponding selection criteria. In this research paper, the problem of ranking and selection of Data Base Management Systems (DBMS components is modeled as a multi-criteria decision making problem. A ‘Fuzzy Distance Based Approach (FDBA’ method is proposed for the optimal ranking and selection of DBMS COTS components of an e-payment system based on 14 selection criteria grouped under three major categories i.e. ‘Vendor Capabilities’, ‘Business Issues’ and ‘Cost’. The results of this method are compared with other Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP which is termed as a typical multi-criteria decision making approach. The proposed methodology is explained with an illustrated example.

Structure-Based Low-Rank Model With Graph Nuclear Norm Regularization for Noise Removal.

Science.gov (United States)

Ge, Qi; Jing, Xiao-Yuan; Wu, Fei; Wei, Zhi-Hui; Xiao, Liang; Shao, Wen-Ze; Yue, Dong; Li, Hai-Bo

2017-07-01

Nonlocal image representation methods, including group-based sparse coding and block-matching 3-D filtering, have shown their great performance in application to low-level tasks. The nonlocal prior is extracted from each group consisting of patches with similar intensities. Grouping patches based on intensity similarity, however, gives rise to disturbance and inaccuracy in estimation of the true images. To address this problem, we propose a structure-based low-rank model with graph nuclear norm regularization. We exploit the local manifold structure inside a patch and group the patches by the distance metric of manifold structure. With the manifold structure information, a graph nuclear norm regularization is established and incorporated into a low-rank approximation model. We then prove that the graph-based regularization is equivalent to a weighted nuclear norm and the proposed model can be solved by a weighted singular-value thresholding algorithm. Extensive experiments on additive white Gaussian noise removal and mixed noise removal demonstrate that the proposed method achieves a better performance than several state-of-the-art algorithms.

Non-steroidal Anti-inflammatory Drugs Ranking by Nondeterministic Assessments of Probabilistic Type

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Madalina luiza MOLDOVEANU

2012-09-01

Full Text Available With a number of common therapeutic prescriptions, common mechanisms, common pharmacological effects - analgesic, antipyretic and anti-inflammatory (acetaminophen excepted, common side effects (SE (platelet dysfunction, gastritis and peptic ulcers, renal insufficiency in susceptible patients, water and sodium retention, edemas, nephropathies, and only a few different characteristics – different chemical structures, pharmacokinetics and different therapeutic possibility, different selectivities according to cyclooxygenase pathway 1 and 2, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs similarities are more apparent than differences. Being known that in a correct treatment benefits would exceed risks, the question “Which anti-inflammatory drug presents the lowest risks for a patient?” is just natural. By the Global Risk Method (GRM and the Maximum Risk Method (MRM we have determined the ranking of fourteen NSAIDs considering the risks presented by each particular NSAID. Nimesulide, Etoricoxib and Celecoxib safety level came superior to the other NSAIDs, whereas Etodolac and Indomethacin present an increased side effects risk.

MCDM based evaluation and ranking of commercial off-the-shelf using fuzzy based matrix method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rakesh Garg

2017-04-01

Full Text Available In today’s scenario, software has become an essential component in all kinds of systems. The size and the complexity of the software increases with a corresponding increase in its functionality, hence leads to the development of the modular software systems. Software developers emphasize on the concept of component based software engineering (CBSE for the development of modular software systems. The CBSE concept consists of dividing the software into a number of modules; selecting Commercial Off-the-Shelf (COTS for each module; and finally integrating the modules to develop the final software system. The selection of COTS for any module plays a vital role in software development. To address the problem of selection of COTS, a framework for ranking and selection of various COTS components for any software system based on expert opinion elicitation and fuzzy-based matrix methodology is proposed in this research paper. The selection problem is modeled as a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM problem. The evaluation criteria are identified through extensive literature study and the COTS components are ranked based on these identified and selected evaluation criteria using the proposed methods according to the value of a permanent function of their criteria matrices. The methodology is explained through an example and is validated by comparing with an existing method.

Modifications of Probabilistic Safety Assessment-1 Nuclear Power Plant Dukovany based upon new version of Emergency Operating Procedures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aldorf, R.

1997-01-01

In the frame of 'living Probabilistic Safety Assessment-1 Nuclear Power Plant Dukovany Project' being performed by Nuclear Research Institute Rez during 1997 is planned to reflect on Probabilistic Safety Assessment-1 basis on impact of Emergency Response Guidelines (as one particular event from the list of other modifications) on Plant Safety. Following highlights help to orient the reader in main general aspects, findings and issues of the work that currently continues on. Older results of Probabilistic Safety Assessment-1 Nuclear Power Plant Dukovany have revealed that human behaviour during accident progression scenarios represent one of the most important aspects in plant safety. Current effort of Nuclear Power Plants Dukovany (Czech Republic) and Bohunice (Slovak Republic) is focussed on development of qualitatively new symptom-based Emergency Operating Procedures called Emergency Response Guidelines Supplier - Westinghouse Energy Systems Europe, Brussels works in cooperation with teams of specialist from both Nuclear Power Plants. In the frame of 'living Probabilistic Safety Assessment-1 Nuclear Power Plant Dukovany Project' being performed by Nuclear Research Institute Rez during 1997 is planned to prove on Probabilistic Safety Assessment -1 basis an expected - positive impact of Emergency Response Guidelines on Plant Safety, Since this contract is currently still in progress, it is possible to release only preliminary conclusions and observations. Emergency Response Guidelines compare to original Emergency Operating Procedures substantially reduce uncertainty of general human behaviour during plant response to an accident process. It is possible to conclude that from the current scope Probabilistic Safety Assessment Dukovany point of view (until core damage), Emergency Response Guidelines represent adequately wide basis for mitigating any initiating event

An improved rank based disease prediction using web navigation patterns on bio-medical databases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Dhanalakshmi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Applying machine learning techniques to on-line biomedical databases is a challenging task, as this data is collected from large number of sources and it is multi-dimensional. Also retrieval of relevant document from large repository such as gene document takes more processing time and an increased false positive rate. Generally, the extraction of biomedical document is based on the stream of prior observations of gene parameters taken at different time periods. Traditional web usage models such as Markov, Bayesian and Clustering models are sensitive to analyze the user navigation patterns and session identification in online biomedical database. Moreover, most of the document ranking models on biomedical database are sensitive to sparsity and outliers. In this paper, a novel user recommendation system was implemented to predict the top ranked biomedical documents using the disease type, gene entities and user navigation patterns. In this recommendation system, dynamic session identification, dynamic user identification and document ranking techniques were used to extract the highly relevant disease documents on the online PubMed repository. To verify the performance of the proposed model, the true positive rate and runtime of the model was compared with that of traditional static models such as Bayesian and Fuzzy rank. Experimental results show that the performance of the proposed ranking model is better than the traditional models.

A Hybrid Probabilistic Model for Unified Collaborative and Content-Based Image Tagging.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Ning; Cheung, William K; Qiu, Guoping; Xue, Xiangyang

2011-07-01

The increasing availability of large quantities of user contributed images with labels has provided opportunities to develop automatic tools to tag images to facilitate image search and retrieval. In this paper, we present a novel hybrid probabilistic model (HPM) which integrates low-level image features and high-level user provided tags to automatically tag images. For images without any tags, HPM predicts new tags based solely on the low-level image features. For images with user provided tags, HPM jointly exploits both the image features and the tags in a unified probabilistic framework to recommend additional tags to label the images. The HPM framework makes use of the tag-image association matrix (TIAM). However, since the number of images is usually very large and user-provided tags are diverse, TIAM is very sparse, thus making it difficult to reliably estimate tag-to-tag co-occurrence probabilities. We developed a collaborative filtering method based on nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) for tackling this data sparsity issue. Also, an L1 norm kernel method is used to estimate the correlations between image features and semantic concepts. The effectiveness of the proposed approach has been evaluated using three databases containing 5,000 images with 371 tags, 31,695 images with 5,587 tags, and 269,648 images with 5,018 tags, respectively.

Ranking economic history journals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Di Vaio, Gianfranco; Weisdorf, Jacob Louis

2010-01-01

This study ranks-for the first time-12 international academic journals that have economic history as their main topic. The ranking is based on data collected for the year 2007. Journals are ranked using standard citation analysis where we adjust for age, size and self-citation of journals. We also...... compare the leading economic history journals with the leading journals in economics in order to measure the influence on economics of economic history, and vice versa. With a few exceptions, our results confirm the general idea about what economic history journals are the most influential for economic...... history, and that, although economic history is quite independent from economics as a whole, knowledge exchange between the two fields is indeed going on....

Ranking Economic History Journals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Di Vaio, Gianfranco; Weisdorf, Jacob Louis

This study ranks - for the first time - 12 international academic journals that have economic history as their main topic. The ranking is based on data collected for the year 2007. Journals are ranked using standard citation analysis where we adjust for age, size and self-citation of journals. We...... also compare the leading economic history journals with the leading journals in economics in order to measure the influence on economics of economic history, and vice versa. With a few exceptions, our results confirm the general idea about what economic history journals are the most influential...... for economic history, and that, although economic history is quite independent from economics as a whole, knowledge exchange between the two fields is indeed going on....

Invariant and semi-invariant probabilistic normed spaces

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ghaemi, M.B. [School of Mathematics Iran, University of Science and Technology, Narmak, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)], E-mail: mghaemi@iust.ac.ir; Lafuerza-Guillen, B. [Departamento de Estadistica y Matematica Aplicada, Universidad de Almeria, Almeria E-04120 (Spain)], E-mail: blafuerz@ual.es; Saiedinezhad, S. [School of Mathematics Iran, University of Science and Technology, Narmak, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)], E-mail: ssaiedinezhad@yahoo.com

2009-10-15

Probabilistic metric spaces were introduced by Karl Menger. Alsina, Schweizer and Sklar gave a general definition of probabilistic normed space based on the definition of Menger . We introduce the concept of semi-invariance among the PN spaces. In this paper we will find a sufficient condition for some PN spaces to be semi-invariant. We will show that PN spaces are normal spaces. Urysohn's lemma, and Tietze extension theorem for them are proved.

Disjunctive Probabilistic Modal Logic is Enough for Bisimilarity on Reactive Probabilistic Systems

OpenAIRE

Bernardo, Marco; Miculan, Marino

2016-01-01

Larsen and Skou characterized probabilistic bisimilarity over reactive probabilistic systems with a logic including true, negation, conjunction, and a diamond modality decorated with a probabilistic lower bound. Later on, Desharnais, Edalat, and Panangaden showed that negation is not necessary to characterize the same equivalence. In this paper, we prove that the logical characterization holds also when conjunction is replaced by disjunction, with negation still being not necessary. To this e...

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Program

Science.gov (United States)

Pai, Shantaram S.; Chamis, Christos C.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Stefko, George L.; Riha, David S.; Thacker, Ben H.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Mital, Subodh K.

2010-01-01

NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is a general-purpose, probabilistic analysis program that computes probability of failure and probabilistic sensitivity measures of engineered systems. Because NASA/NESSUS uses highly computationally efficient and accurate analysis techniques, probabilistic solutions can be obtained even for extremely large and complex models. Once the probabilistic response is quantified, the results can be used to support risk-informed decisions regarding reliability for safety-critical and one-of-a-kind systems, as well as for maintaining a level of quality while reducing manufacturing costs for larger-quantity products. NASA/NESSUS has been successfully applied to a diverse range of problems in aerospace, gas turbine engines, biomechanics, pipelines, defense, weaponry, and infrastructure. This program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general-purpose structural analysis and lifting methods to compute the probabilistic response and reliability of engineered structures. Uncertainties in load, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include non-linear finite-element methods, heat-transfer analysis, polymer/ceramic matrix composite analysis, monolithic (conventional metallic) materials life-prediction methodologies, boundary element methods, and user-written subroutines. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is structured in a modular format with 15 elements.

Decision making by hybrid probabilistic: Possibilistic utility theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pap Endre

2009-01-01

Full Text Available It is presented an approach to decision theory based upon nonprobabilistic uncertainty. There is an axiomatization of the hybrid probabilistic possibilistic mixtures based on a pair of triangular conorm and triangular norm satisfying restricted distributivity law, and the corresponding non-additive Smeasure. This is characterized by the families of operations involved in generalized mixtures, based upon a previous result on the characterization of the pair of continuous t-norm and t-conorm such that the former is restrictedly distributive over the latter. The obtained family of mixtures combines probabilistic and idempotent (possibilistic mixtures via a threshold.

Probabilistic Anomaly Detection Based On System Calls Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Przemysław Maciołek

2007-01-01

Full Text Available We present an application of probabilistic approach to the anomaly detection (PAD. Byanalyzing selected system calls (and their arguments, the chosen applications are monitoredin the Linux environment. This allows us to estimate “(abnormality” of their behavior (bycomparison to previously collected profiles. We’ve attached results of threat detection ina typical computer environment.

Generalized probabilistic scale space for image restoration.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Alexander; Mishra, Akshaya K

2010-10-01

A novel generalized sampling-based probabilistic scale space theory is proposed for image restoration. We explore extending the definition of scale space to better account for both noise and observation models, which is important for producing accurately restored images. A new class of scale-space realizations based on sampling and probability theory is introduced to realize this extended definition in the context of image restoration. Experimental results using 2-D images show that generalized sampling-based probabilistic scale-space theory can be used to produce more accurate restored images when compared with state-of-the-art scale-space formulations, particularly under situations characterized by low signal-to-noise ratios and image degradation.

Probabilistic Damage Stability Calculations for Ships

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

1996-01-01

The aim of these notes is to provide background material for the present probabilistic damage stability rules fro dry cargo ships.The formulas for the damage statistics are derived and shortcomings as well as possible improvements are discussed. The advantage of the definiton of fictitious...... compartments in the formulation of a computer-based general procedure for probabilistic damaged stability assessment is shown. Some comments are given on the current state of knowledge on the ship survivability in damaged conditions. Finally, problems regarding proper account of water ingress through openings...

Quantum logic networks for probabilistic teleportation

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

刘金明; 张永生; 等

2003-01-01

By eans of the primitive operations consisting of single-qubit gates.two-qubit controlled-not gates,Von Neuman measurement and classically controlled operations.,we construct efficient quantum logic networks for implementing probabilistic teleportation of a single qubit,a two-particle entangled state,and an N-particle entanglement.Based on the quantum networks,we show that after the partially entangled states are concentrated into maximal entanglement,the above three kinds of probabilistic teleportation are the same as the standard teleportation using the corresponding maximally entangled states as the quantum channels.

Variable screening and ranking using sampling-based sensitivity measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Y-T.; Mohanty, Sitakanta

2006-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for screening insignificant random variables and ranking significant important random variables using sensitivity measures including two cumulative distribution function (CDF)-based and two mean-response based measures. The methodology features (1) using random samples to compute sensitivities and (2) using acceptance limits, derived from the test-of-hypothesis, to classify significant and insignificant random variables. Because no approximation is needed in either the form of the performance functions or the type of continuous distribution functions representing input variables, the sampling-based approach can handle highly nonlinear functions with non-normal variables. The main characteristics and effectiveness of the sampling-based sensitivity measures are investigated using both simple and complex examples. Because the number of samples needed does not depend on the number of variables, the methodology appears to be particularly suitable for problems with large, complex models that have large numbers of random variables but relatively few numbers of significant random variables

On the progress towards probabilistic basis for deterministic codes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellyin, F.

1975-01-01

Fundamentals arguments for a probabilistic basis of codes are presented. A class of code formats is outlined in which explicit statistical measures of uncertainty of design variables are incorporated. The format looks very much like present codes (deterministic) except for having probabilistic background. An example is provided whereby the design factors are plotted against the safety index, the probability of failure, and the risk of mortality. The safety level of the present codes is also indicated. A decision regarding the new probabilistically based code parameters thus could be made with full knowledge of implied consequences

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Thio, H. K.; Ichinose, G. A.; Somerville, P. G.; Polet, J.

2006-12-01

The recent tsunami disaster caused by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake has focused our attention to the hazard posed by large earthquakes that occur under water, in particular subduction zone earthquakes, and the tsunamis that they generate. Even though these kinds of events are rare, the very large loss of life and material destruction caused by this earthquake warrant a significant effort towards the mitigation of the tsunami hazard. For ground motion hazard, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has become a standard practice in the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard to populations in particular with respect to structures, infrastructure and lifelines. Its ability to condense the complexities and variability of seismic activity into a manageable set of parameters greatly facilitates the design of effective seismic resistant buildings but also the planning of infrastructure projects. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) achieves the same goal for hazards posed by tsunami. There are great advantages of implementing such a method to evaluate the total risk (seismic and tsunami) to coastal communities. The method that we have developed is based on the traditional PSHA and therefore completely consistent with standard seismic practice. Because of the strong dependence of tsunami wave heights on bathymetry, we use a full waveform tsunami waveform computation in lieu of attenuation relations that are common in PSHA. By pre-computing and storing the tsunami waveforms at points along the coast generated for sets of subfaults that comprise larger earthquake faults, we can efficiently synthesize tsunami waveforms for any slip distribution on those faults by summing the individual subfault tsunami waveforms (weighted by their slip). This efficiency make it feasible to use Green's function summation in lieu of attenuation relations to provide very accurate estimates of tsunami height for probabilistic calculations, where one typically computes

Probabilistic cellular automata.

Science.gov (United States)

Agapie, Alexandru; Andreica, Anca; Giuclea, Marius

2014-09-01

Cellular automata are binary lattices used for modeling complex dynamical systems. The automaton evolves iteratively from one configuration to another, using some local transition rule based on the number of ones in the neighborhood of each cell. With respect to the number of cells allowed to change per iteration, we speak of either synchronous or asynchronous automata. If randomness is involved to some degree in the transition rule, we speak of probabilistic automata, otherwise they are called deterministic. With either type of cellular automaton we are dealing with, the main theoretical challenge stays the same: starting from an arbitrary initial configuration, predict (with highest accuracy) the end configuration. If the automaton is deterministic, the outcome simplifies to one of two configurations, all zeros or all ones. If the automaton is probabilistic, the whole process is modeled by a finite homogeneous Markov chain, and the outcome is the corresponding stationary distribution. Based on our previous results for the asynchronous case-connecting the probability of a configuration in the stationary distribution to its number of zero-one borders-the article offers both numerical and theoretical insight into the long-term behavior of synchronous cellular automata.

Probabilistic evaluation method for axial capacity of single pile based on pile test information. Saika shiken kekka wo koryoshita kuienchoku shijiryoku no kakuritsuronteki hyokaho

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ishii, K.; Suzuki, M. (Shimizu Construction Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)); Nakatani, S. (Ministry of Construction Tokyo (Japan)); Matsui, K. (CTI Engineering Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan))

1991-12-20

To consider the safety and economics in the design of pile, the reasonable evaluation on estimated accuracy from the accuracy of equation of pile capacity and probabilistic evaluation method is necessary. Therefore, the data analysis based on the collection and summary of the results from load tests of piles is one of powerful approach. In this study, selection of the parameters that cannot obtained from probabilistic model and load test and combination between statistical and experimental data by using Baysian probabilistic theory was examined. As the feature of this study, use of the design pile capacity equation based on the model of evaluation of pile capacity, consideration of the intrinsic difference between statistical data and results of load tests by using Baysian probabilistic theory and quantitative examination of applicability of the proposed method and the results of load tests are given. 24 refs., 5 figs., 7 tabs.

Fabric defect detection based on visual saliency using deep feature and low-rank recovery

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zhoufeng; Wang, Baorui; Li, Chunlei; Li, Bicao; Dong, Yan

2018-04-01

Fabric defect detection plays an important role in improving the quality of fabric product. In this paper, a novel fabric defect detection method based on visual saliency using deep feature and low-rank recovery was proposed. First, unsupervised training is carried out by the initial network parameters based on MNIST large datasets. The supervised fine-tuning of fabric image library based on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) is implemented, and then more accurate deep neural network model is generated. Second, the fabric images are uniformly divided into the image block with the same size, then we extract their multi-layer deep features using the trained deep network. Thereafter, all the extracted features are concentrated into a feature matrix. Third, low-rank matrix recovery is adopted to divide the feature matrix into the low-rank matrix which indicates the background and the sparse matrix which indicates the salient defect. In the end, the iterative optimal threshold segmentation algorithm is utilized to segment the saliency maps generated by the sparse matrix to locate the fabric defect area. Experimental results demonstrate that the feature extracted by CNN is more suitable for characterizing the fabric texture than the traditional LBP, HOG and other hand-crafted features extraction method, and the proposed method can accurately detect the defect regions of various fabric defects, even for the image with complex texture.

Duplicate Detection in Probabilistic Data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Panse, Fabian; van Keulen, Maurice; de Keijzer, Ander; Ritter, Norbert

2009-01-01

Collected data often contains uncertainties. Probabilistic databases have been proposed to manage uncertain data. To combine data from multiple autonomous probabilistic databases, an integration of probabilistic data has to be performed. Until now, however, data integration approaches have focused

Valid Probabilistic Predictions for Ginseng with Venn Machines Using Electronic Nose

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

You Wang

2016-07-01

Full Text Available In the application of electronic noses (E-noses, probabilistic prediction is a good way to estimate how confident we are about our prediction. In this work, a homemade E-nose system embedded with 16 metal-oxide semi-conductive gas sensors was used to discriminate nine kinds of ginsengs of different species or production places. A flexible machine learning framework, Venn machine (VM was introduced to make probabilistic predictions for each prediction. Three Venn predictors were developed based on three classical probabilistic prediction methods (Platt’s method, Softmax regression and Naive Bayes. Three Venn predictors and three classical probabilistic prediction methods were compared in aspect of classification rate and especially the validity of estimated probability. A best classification rate of 88.57% was achieved with Platt’s method in offline mode, and the classification rate of VM-SVM (Venn machine based on Support Vector Machine was 86.35%, just 2.22% lower. The validity of Venn predictors performed better than that of corresponding classical probabilistic prediction methods. The validity of VM-SVM was superior to the other methods. The results demonstrated that Venn machine is a flexible tool to make precise and valid probabilistic prediction in the application of E-nose, and VM-SVM achieved the best performance for the probabilistic prediction of ginseng samples.

A Max-Flow Based Algorithm for Connected Target Coverage with Probabilistic Sensors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anxing Shan

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Coverage is a fundamental issue in the research field of wireless sensor networks (WSNs. Connected target coverage discusses the sensor placement to guarantee the needs of both coverage and connectivity. Existing works largely leverage on the Boolean disk model, which is only a coarse approximation to the practical sensing model. In this paper, we focus on the connected target coverage issue based on the probabilistic sensing model, which can characterize the quality of coverage more accurately. In the probabilistic sensing model, sensors are only be able to detect a target with certain probability. We study the collaborative detection probability of target under multiple sensors. Armed with the analysis of collaborative detection probability, we further formulate the minimum ϵ-connected target coverage problem, aiming to minimize the number of sensors satisfying the requirements of both coverage and connectivity. We map it into a flow graph and present an approximation algorithm called the minimum vertices maximum flow algorithm (MVMFA with provable time complex and approximation ratios. To evaluate our design, we analyze the performance of MVMFA theoretically and also conduct extensive simulation studies to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm.

Universal Generating Function Based Probabilistic Production Simulation Approach Considering Wind Speed Correlation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Li

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Due to the volatile and correlated nature of wind speed, a high share of wind power penetration poses challenges to power system production simulation. Existing power system probabilistic production simulation approaches are in short of considering the time-varying characteristics of wind power and load, as well as the correlation between wind speeds at the same time, which brings about some problems in planning and analysis for the power system with high wind power penetration. Based on universal generating function (UGF, this paper proposes a novel probabilistic production simulation approach considering wind speed correlation. UGF is utilized to develop the chronological models of wind power that characterizes wind speed correlation simultaneously, as well as the chronological models of conventional generation sources and load. The supply and demand are matched chronologically to not only obtain generation schedules, but also reliability indices both at each simulation interval and the whole period. The proposed approach has been tested on the improved IEEE-RTS 79 test system and is compared with the Monte Carlo approach and the sequence operation theory approach. The results verified the proposed approach with the merits of computation simplicity and accuracy.

Probabilistic Design of Wave Energy Devices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Ferreira, C.B.

2011-01-01

Wave energy has a large potential for contributing significantly to production of renewable energy. However, the wave energy sector is still not able to deliver cost competitive and reliable solutions. But the sector has already demonstrated several proofs of concepts. The design of wave energy...... devices is a new and expanding technical area where there is no tradition for probabilistic design—in fact very little full scale devices has been build to date, so it can be said that no design tradition really exists in this area. For this reason it is considered to be of great importance to develop...... and advocate for a probabilistic design approach, as it is assumed (in other areas this has been demonstrated) that this leads to more economical designs compared to designs based on deterministic methods. In the present paper a general framework for probabilistic design and reliability analysis of wave energy...

Impairment of probabilistic reward-based learning in schizophrenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Weiler, Julia A; Bellebaum, Christian; Brüne, Martin; Juckel, Georg; Daum, Irene

2009-09-01

Recent models assume that some symptoms of schizophrenia originate from defective reward processing mechanisms. Understanding the precise nature of reward-based learning impairments might thus make an important contribution to the understanding of schizophrenia and the development of treatment strategies. The present study investigated several features of probabilistic reward-based stimulus association learning, namely the acquisition of initial contingencies, reversal learning, generalization abilities, and the effects of reward magnitude. Compared to healthy controls, individuals with schizophrenia exhibited attenuated overall performance during acquisition, whereas learning rates across blocks were similar to the rates of controls. On the group level, persons with schizophrenia were, however, unable to learn the reversal of the initial reward contingencies. Exploratory analysis of only the subgroup of individuals with schizophrenia who showed significant learning during acquisition yielded deficits in reversal learning with low reward magnitudes only. There was further evidence of a mild generalization impairment of the persons with schizophrenia in an acquired equivalence task. In summary, although there was evidence of intact basic processing of reward magnitudes, individuals with schizophrenia were impaired at using this feedback for the adaptive guidance of behavior.

Research on the Fusion of Dependent Evidence Based on Rank Correlation Coefficient

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fengjian Shi

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In order to meet the higher accuracy and system reliability requirements, the information fusion for multi-sensor systems is an increasing concern. Dempster–Shafer evidence theory (D–S theory has been investigated for many applications in multi-sensor information fusion due to its flexibility in uncertainty modeling. However, classical evidence theory assumes that the evidence is independent of each other, which is often unrealistic. Ignoring the relationship between the evidence may lead to unreasonable fusion results, and even lead to wrong decisions. This assumption severely prevents D–S evidence theory from practical application and further development. In this paper, an innovative evidence fusion model to deal with dependent evidence based on rank correlation coefficient is proposed. The model first uses rank correlation coefficient to measure the dependence degree between different evidence. Then, total discount coefficient is obtained based on the dependence degree, which also considers the impact of the reliability of evidence. Finally, the discount evidence fusion model is presented. An example is illustrated to show the use and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Research on the Fusion of Dependent Evidence Based on Rank Correlation Coefficient.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Fengjian; Su, Xiaoyan; Qian, Hong; Yang, Ning; Han, Wenhua

2017-10-16

In order to meet the higher accuracy and system reliability requirements, the information fusion for multi-sensor systems is an increasing concern. Dempster-Shafer evidence theory (D-S theory) has been investigated for many applications in multi-sensor information fusion due to its flexibility in uncertainty modeling. However, classical evidence theory assumes that the evidence is independent of each other, which is often unrealistic. Ignoring the relationship between the evidence may lead to unreasonable fusion results, and even lead to wrong decisions. This assumption severely prevents D-S evidence theory from practical application and further development. In this paper, an innovative evidence fusion model to deal with dependent evidence based on rank correlation coefficient is proposed. The model first uses rank correlation coefficient to measure the dependence degree between different evidence. Then, total discount coefficient is obtained based on the dependence degree, which also considers the impact of the reliability of evidence. Finally, the discount evidence fusion model is presented. An example is illustrated to show the use and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Cointegration rank testing under conditional heteroskedasticity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Rahbek, Anders Christian; Taylor, Robert M.

2010-01-01

We analyze the properties of the conventional Gaussian-based cointegrating rank tests of Johansen (1996, Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models) in the case where the vector of series under test is driven by globally stationary, conditionally heteroskedastic......, relative to tests based on the asymptotic critical values or the i.i.d. bootstrap, the wild bootstrap rank tests perform very well in small samples under a variety of conditionally heteroskedastic innovation processes. An empirical application to the term structure of interest rates is given....

Fuzzy ranking based non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II for network overload alleviation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pandiarajan K.

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an effective method of network overload management in power systems. The three competing objectives 1 generation cost 2 transmission line overload and 3 real power loss are optimized to provide pareto-optimal solutions. A fuzzy ranking based non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II is used to solve this complex nonlinear optimization problem. The minimization of competing objectives is done by generation rescheduling. Fuzzy ranking method is employed to extract the best compromise solution out of the available non-dominated solutions depending upon its highest rank. N-1 contingency analysis is carried out to identify the most severe lines and those lines are selected for outage. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated for different contingency cases in IEEE 30 and IEEE 118 bus systems with smooth cost functions and their results are compared with other single objective evolutionary algorithms like Particle swarm optimization (PSO and Differential evolution (DE. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach to generate well distributed pareto-optimal non-dominated solutions of multi-objective problem

Error analysis of stochastic gradient descent ranking.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Hong; Tang, Yi; Li, Luoqing; Yuan, Yuan; Li, Xuelong; Tang, Yuanyan

2013-06-01

Ranking is always an important task in machine learning and information retrieval, e.g., collaborative filtering, recommender systems, drug discovery, etc. A kernel-based stochastic gradient descent algorithm with the least squares loss is proposed for ranking in this paper. The implementation of this algorithm is simple, and an expression of the solution is derived via a sampling operator and an integral operator. An explicit convergence rate for leaning a ranking function is given in terms of the suitable choices of the step size and the regularization parameter. The analysis technique used here is capacity independent and is novel in error analysis of ranking learning. Experimental results on real-world data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in ranking tasks, which verifies the theoretical analysis in ranking error.

Solving stochastic multiobjective vehicle routing problem using probabilistic metaheuristic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gannouni Asmae

2017-01-01

closed form expression. This novel approach is based on combinatorial probability and can be incorporated in a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm. (iiProvide probabilistic approaches to elitism and diversification in multiobjective evolutionary algorithms. Finally, The behavior of the resulting Probabilistic Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithms (PrMOEAs is empirically investigated on the multi-objective stochastic VRP problem.

A novel soft tissue prediction methodology for orthognathic surgery based on probabilistic finite element modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Knoops, Paul G M; Borghi, Alessandro; Ruggiero, Federica; Badiali, Giovanni; Bianchi, Alberto; Marchetti, Claudio; Rodriguez-Florez, Naiara; Breakey, Richard W F; Jeelani, Owase; Dunaway, David J; Schievano, Silvia

2018-01-01

Repositioning of the maxilla in orthognathic surgery is carried out for functional and aesthetic purposes. Pre-surgical planning tools can predict 3D facial appearance by computing the response of the soft tissue to the changes to the underlying skeleton. The clinical use of commercial prediction software remains controversial, likely due to the deterministic nature of these computational predictions. A novel probabilistic finite element model (FEM) for the prediction of postoperative facial soft tissues is proposed in this paper. A probabilistic FEM was developed and validated on a cohort of eight patients who underwent maxillary repositioning and had pre- and postoperative cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans taken. Firstly, a variables correlation assessed various modelling parameters. Secondly, a design of experiments (DOE) provided a range of potential outcomes based on uniformly distributed input parameters, followed by an optimisation. Lastly, the second DOE iteration provided optimised predictions with a probability range. A range of 3D predictions was obtained using the probabilistic FEM and validated using reconstructed soft tissue surfaces from the postoperative CBCT data. The predictions in the nose and upper lip areas accurately include the true postoperative position, whereas the prediction under-estimates the position of the cheeks and lower lip. A probabilistic FEM has been developed and validated for the prediction of the facial appearance following orthognathic surgery. This method shows how inaccuracies in the modelling and uncertainties in executing surgical planning influence the soft tissue prediction and it provides a range of predictions including a minimum and maximum, which may be helpful for patients in understanding the impact of surgery on the face.

Probabilistic systems coalgebraically: A survey

Science.gov (United States)

Sokolova, Ana

2011-01-01

We survey the work on both discrete and continuous-space probabilistic systems as coalgebras, starting with how probabilistic systems are modeled as coalgebras and followed by a discussion of their bisimilarity and behavioral equivalence, mentioning results that follow from the coalgebraic treatment of probabilistic systems. It is interesting to note that, for different reasons, for both discrete and continuous probabilistic systems it may be more convenient to work with behavioral equivalence than with bisimilarity. PMID:21998490

Ranking Quality in Higher Education: Guiding or Misleading?

Science.gov (United States)

Bergseth, Brita; Petocz, Peter; Abrandt Dahlgren, Madeleine

2014-01-01

The study examines two different models of measuring, assessing and ranking quality in higher education. Do different systems of quality assessment lead to equivalent conclusions about the quality of education? This comparative study is based on the rankings of 24 Swedish higher education institutions. Two ranking actors have independently…

Reduced Rank Regression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Søren

2008-01-01

The reduced rank regression model is a multivariate regression model with a coefficient matrix with reduced rank. The reduced rank regression algorithm is an estimation procedure, which estimates the reduced rank regression model. It is related to canonical correlations and involves calculating...

Probabilistic evaluation of design S-N curve and reliability assessment of ASME code-based evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Yongxiang

1999-01-01

A probabilistic evaluating approach of design S-N curve and a reliability assessment approach of the ASME code-based evaluation are presented on the basis of Langer S-N model-based P-S-N curves. The P-S-N curves are estimated by a so-called general maximum likelihood method. This method can be applied to deal with the virtual stress amplitude-crack initial life data which have a characteristics of double random variables. Investigation of a set of the virtual stress amplitude-crack initial life (S-N) data of 1Cr18Ni9Ti austenitic stainless steel-welded joint reveals that the P-S-N curves can give a good prediction of scatter regularity of the S-N data. Probabilistic evaluation of the design S-N curve with 0.9999 survival probability has considered various uncertainties, besides of the scatter of the S-N data, to an appropriate extent. The ASME code-based evaluation with 20 reduction factor on the mean life is much more conservative than that with 2 reduction factor on the stress amplitude. Evaluation of the latter in 666.61 MPa virtual stress amplitude is equivalent to 0.999522 survival probability and in 2092.18 MPa virtual stress amplitude equivalent to 0.9999999995 survival probability. This means that the evaluation in the low loading level may be non-conservative and in contrast, too conservative in the high loading level. Cause is that the reduction factors are constants and the factors can not take into account the general observation that scatter of the N data increases with the loading level decreasing. This has indicated that it is necessary to apply the probabilistic approach to the evaluation of design S-N curve

Ranking adverse drug reactions with crowdsourcing.

Science.gov (United States)

Gottlieb, Assaf; Hoehndorf, Robert; Dumontier, Michel; Altman, Russ B

2015-03-23

There is no publicly available resource that provides the relative severity of adverse drug reactions (ADRs). Such a resource would be useful for several applications, including assessment of the risks and benefits of drugs and improvement of patient-centered care. It could also be used to triage predictions of drug adverse events. The intent of the study was to rank ADRs according to severity. We used Internet-based crowdsourcing to rank ADRs according to severity. We assigned 126,512 pairwise comparisons of ADRs to 2589 Amazon Mechanical Turk workers and used these comparisons to rank order 2929 ADRs. There is good correlation (rho=.53) between the mortality rates associated with ADRs and their rank. Our ranking highlights severe drug-ADR predictions, such as cardiovascular ADRs for raloxifene and celecoxib. It also triages genes associated with severe ADRs such as epidermal growth-factor receptor (EGFR), associated with glioblastoma multiforme, and SCN1A, associated with epilepsy. ADR ranking lays a first stepping stone in personalized drug risk assessment. Ranking of ADRs using crowdsourcing may have useful clinical and financial implications, and should be further investigated in the context of health care decision making.

Ranking Adverse Drug Reactions With Crowdsourcing

KAUST Repository

Gottlieb, Assaf

2015-03-23

Background: There is no publicly available resource that provides the relative severity of adverse drug reactions (ADRs). Such a resource would be useful for several applications, including assessment of the risks and benefits of drugs and improvement of patient-centered care. It could also be used to triage predictions of drug adverse events. Objective: The intent of the study was to rank ADRs according to severity. Methods: We used Internet-based crowdsourcing to rank ADRs according to severity. We assigned 126,512 pairwise comparisons of ADRs to 2589 Amazon Mechanical Turk workers and used these comparisons to rank order 2929 ADRs. Results: There is good correlation (rho=.53) between the mortality rates associated with ADRs and their rank. Our ranking highlights severe drug-ADR predictions, such as cardiovascular ADRs for raloxifene and celecoxib. It also triages genes associated with severe ADRs such as epidermal growth-factor receptor (EGFR), associated with glioblastoma multiforme, and SCN1A, associated with epilepsy. Conclusions: ADR ranking lays a first stepping stone in personalized drug risk assessment. Ranking of ADRs using crowdsourcing may have useful clinical and financial implications, and should be further investigated in the context of health care decision making.

Probabilistic full waveform inversion based on tectonic regionalization - development and application to the Australian upper mantle

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Käufl, P.; Fichtner, A.; Igel, H.

2013-01-01

We present a first study to investigate the feasibility of a probabilistic 3-D full waveform inversion based on spectral-element simulations of seismic wave propagation and Monte Carlo exploration of the model space. Through a tectonic regionalization we reduce the dimension of the model space to

A LDA-based approach to promoting ranking diversity for genomics information retrieval.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yan; Yin, Xiaoshi; Li, Zhoujun; Hu, Xiaohua; Huang, Jimmy Xiangji

2012-06-11

In the biomedical domain, there are immense data and tremendous increase of genomics and biomedical relevant publications. The wealth of information has led to an increasing amount of interest in and need for applying information retrieval techniques to access the scientific literature in genomics and related biomedical disciplines. In many cases, the desired information of a query asked by biologists is a list of a certain type of entities covering different aspects that are related to the question, such as cells, genes, diseases, proteins, mutations, etc. Hence, it is important of a biomedical IR system to be able to provide relevant and diverse answers to fulfill biologists' information needs. However traditional IR model only concerns with the relevance between retrieved documents and user query, but does not take redundancy between retrieved documents into account. This will lead to high redundancy and low diversity in the retrieval ranked lists. In this paper, we propose an approach which employs a topic generative model called Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to promoting ranking diversity for biomedical information retrieval. Different from other approaches or models which consider aspects on word level, our approach assumes that aspects should be identified by the topics of retrieved documents. We present LDA model to discover topic distribution of retrieval passages and word distribution of each topic dimension, and then re-rank retrieval results with topic distribution similarity between passages based on N-size slide window. We perform our approach on TREC 2007 Genomics collection and two distinctive IR baseline runs, which can achieve 8% improvement over the highest Aspect MAP reported in TREC 2007 Genomics track. The proposed method is the first study of adopting topic model to genomics information retrieval, and demonstrates its effectiveness in promoting ranking diversity as well as in improving relevance of ranked lists of genomics search

Scalable group level probabilistic sparse factor analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hinrich, Jesper Løve; Nielsen, Søren Føns Vind; Riis, Nicolai Andre Brogaard

2017-01-01

Many data-driven approaches exist to extract neural representations of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, but most of them lack a proper probabilistic formulation. We propose a scalable group level probabilistic sparse factor analysis (psFA) allowing spatially sparse maps, component...... pruning using automatic relevance determination (ARD) and subject specific heteroscedastic spatial noise modeling. For task-based and resting state fMRI, we show that the sparsity constraint gives rise to components similar to those obtained by group independent component analysis. The noise modeling...... shows that noise is reduced in areas typically associated with activation by the experimental design. The psFA model identifies sparse components and the probabilistic setting provides a natural way to handle parameter uncertainties. The variational Bayesian framework easily extends to more complex...

Quantitative Analysis of Mixtures of Monoprotic Acids Applying Modified Model-Based Rank Annihilation Factor Analysis on Variation Matrices of Spectrophotometric Acid-Base Titrations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ebrahim Ghorbani-Kalhor

2015-04-01

Full Text Available In the current work, a new version of rank annihilation factor analysis was developedto circumvent the rank deficiency problem in multivariate data measurements.Simultaneous determination of dissociation constant and concentration of monoprotic acids was performed by applying model-based rank annihilation factor analysis on variation matrices of spectrophotometric acid-base titrations data. Variation matrices can be obtained by subtracting first row of data matrix from all rows of the main data matrix. This method uses variation matrices instead of multivariate spectrophotometric acid-base titrations matrices to circumvent the rank deficiency problem in the rank quantitation step. The applicability of this approach was evaluated by simulated data at first stage, then the binary mixtures of ascorbic and sorbic acids as model compounds were investigated by the proposed method. At the end, the proposed method was successfully applied for resolving the ascorbic and sorbic acid in an orange juice real sample. Therefore, unique results were achieved by applying rank annihilation factor analysis on variation matrix and using hard soft model combination advantage without any problem and difficulty in rank determination. Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE AR-SA /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi; mso-bidi-language:AR-SA;}    

Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food related hazards, based on risks for human health

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

van der Fels-Klerx, H. J.; van Asselt, E. D.; Raley, M.

2018-01-01

This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science......, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered - based on their characteristics - into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years, multi......-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking...

SpikeTemp: An Enhanced Rank-Order-Based Learning Approach for Spiking Neural Networks With Adaptive Structure.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jinling; Belatreche, Ammar; Maguire, Liam P; McGinnity, Thomas Martin

2017-01-01

This paper presents an enhanced rank-order-based learning algorithm, called SpikeTemp, for spiking neural networks (SNNs) with a dynamically adaptive structure. The trained feed-forward SNN consists of two layers of spiking neurons: 1) an encoding layer which temporally encodes real-valued features into spatio-temporal spike patterns and 2) an output layer of dynamically grown neurons which perform spatio-temporal classification. Both Gaussian receptive fields and square cosine population encoding schemes are employed to encode real-valued features into spatio-temporal spike patterns. Unlike the rank-order-based learning approach, SpikeTemp uses the precise times of the incoming spikes for adjusting the synaptic weights such that early spikes result in a large weight change and late spikes lead to a smaller weight change. This removes the need to rank all the incoming spikes and, thus, reduces the computational cost of SpikeTemp. The proposed SpikeTemp algorithm is demonstrated on several benchmark data sets and on an image recognition task. The results show that SpikeTemp can achieve better classification performance and is much faster than the existing rank-order-based learning approach. In addition, the number of output neurons is much smaller when the square cosine encoding scheme is employed. Furthermore, SpikeTemp is benchmarked against a selection of existing machine learning algorithms, and the results demonstrate the ability of SpikeTemp to classify different data sets after just one presentation of the training samples with comparable classification performance.

Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

OpenAIRE

Sanderson, Warren C.; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian C.; Lutz, Wolfgang

2004-01-01

Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because...

Probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear power plant regulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wall, J B

1980-09-01

A specific program is recommended to utilize more effectively probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear power plant regulation. It is based upon the engineering insights from the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) and some follow-on risk assessment research by USNRC. The Three Mile Island accident is briefly discussed from a risk viewpoint to illustrate a weakness in current practice. The development of a probabilistic safety goal is recommended with some suggestions on underlying principles. Some ongoing work on risk perception and the draft probabilistic safety goal being reviewed on Canada is described. Some suggestions are offered on further risk assessment research. Finally, some recent U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission actions are described.

Consequence ranking of radionuclides in Hanford tank waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmittroth, F.A.; De Lorenzo, T.H.

1995-09-01

Radionuclides in the Hanford tank waste are ranked relative to their consequences for the Low-Level Tank Waste program. The ranking identifies key radionuclides where further study is merited. In addition to potential consequences for intrude and drinking-water scenarios supporting low-level waste activities, a ranking based on shielding criteria is provided. The radionuclide production inventories are based on a new and independent ORIGEN2 calculation representing the operation of all Hanford single-pass reactors and the N Reactor

Classification of rank 2 cluster varieties

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mandel, Travis

We classify rank 2 cluster varieties (those whose corresponding skew-form has rank 2) according to the deformation type of a generic fiber U of their X-spaces, as defined by Fock and Goncharov. Our approach is based on the work of Gross, Hacking, and Keel for cluster varieties and log Calabi...

APPLYING ROBUST RANKING METHOD IN TWO PHASE FUZZY OPTIMIZATION LINEAR PROGRAMMING PROBLEMS (FOLPP

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Monalisha Pattnaik

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Background: This paper explores the solutions to the fuzzy optimization linear program problems (FOLPP where some parameters are fuzzy numbers. In practice, there are many problems in which all decision parameters are fuzzy numbers, and such problems are usually solved by either probabilistic programming or multi-objective programming methods. Methods: In this paper, using the concept of comparison of fuzzy numbers, a very effective method is introduced for solving these problems. This paper extends linear programming based problem in fuzzy environment. With the problem assumptions, the optimal solution can still be theoretically solved using the two phase simplex based method in fuzzy environment. To handle the fuzzy decision variables can be initially generated and then solved and improved sequentially using the fuzzy decision approach by introducing robust ranking technique. Results and conclusions: The model is illustrated with an application and a post optimal analysis approach is obtained. The proposed procedure was programmed with MATLAB (R2009a version software for plotting the four dimensional slice diagram to the application. Finally, numerical example is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results, and to gain additional managerial insights. 

Distant Supervision for Relation Extraction with Ranking-Based Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang Xiang

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Relation extraction has benefited from distant supervision in recent years with the development of natural language processing techniques and data explosion. However, distant supervision is still greatly limited by the quality of training data, due to its natural motivation for greatly reducing the heavy cost of data annotation. In this paper, we construct an architecture called MIML-sort (Multi-instance Multi-label Learning with Sorting Strategies, which is built on the famous MIML framework. Based on MIML-sort, we propose three ranking-based methods for sample selection with which we identify relation extractors from a subset of the training data. Experiments are set up on the KBP (Knowledge Base Propagation corpus, one of the benchmark datasets for distant supervision, which is large and noisy. Compared with previous work, the proposed methods produce considerably better results. Furthermore, the three methods together achieve the best F1 on the official testing set, with an optimal enhancement of F1 from 27.3% to 29.98%.

Nuclear fuel cycle cost analysis using a probabilistic simulation technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Won, Il Ko; Jong, Won Choi; Chul, Hyung Kang; Jae, Sol Lee; Kun, Jai Lee

1998-01-01

A simple approach was described to incorporate the Monte Carlo simulation technique into a fuel cycle cost estimate. As a case study, the once-through and recycle fuel cycle options were tested with some alternatives (ie. the change of distribution type for input parameters), and the simulation results were compared with the values calculated by a deterministic method. A three-estimate approach was used for converting cost inputs into the statistical parameters of assumed probabilistic distributions. It was indicated that the Monte Carlo simulation by a Latin Hypercube Sampling technique and subsequent sensitivity analyses were useful for examining uncertainty propagation of fuel cycle costs, and could more efficiently provide information to decisions makers than a deterministic method. It was shown from the change of distribution types of input parameters that the values calculated by the deterministic method were set around a 40 th ∼ 50 th percentile of the output distribution function calculated by probabilistic simulation. Assuming lognormal distribution of inputs, however, the values calculated by the deterministic method were set around an 85 th percentile of the output distribution function calculated by probabilistic simulation. It was also indicated from the results of the sensitivity analysis that the front-end components were generally more sensitive than the back-end components, of which the uranium purchase cost was the most important factor of all. It showed, also, that the discount rate made many contributions to the fuel cycle cost, showing the rank of third or fifth of all components. The results of this study could be useful in applications to another options, such as the Dcp (Direct Use of PWR spent fuel In Candu reactors) cycle with high cost uncertainty

Application of probabilistic risk based optimization approaches in environmental restoration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldammer, W.

1995-01-01

The paper presents a general approach to site-specific risk assessments and optimization procedures. In order to account for uncertainties in the assessment of the current situation and future developments, optimization parameters are treated as probabilistic distributions. The assessments are performed within the framework of a cost-benefit analysis. Radiation hazards and conventional risks are treated within an integrated approach. Special consideration is given to consequences of low probability events such as, earthquakes or major floods. Risks and financial costs are combined to an overall figure of detriment allowing one to distinguish between benefits of available reclamation options. The probabilistic analysis uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The paper demonstrates the applicability of this approach in aiding the reclamation planning using an example from the German reclamation program for uranium mining and milling sites

Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

OpenAIRE

Sanderson, W.C.; Scherbov, S.; O'Neill, B.C.; Lutz, W.

2003-01-01

Since policy makers often prefer to think in terms of scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy makers it allows them to answer "what if"...

Conditional probabilistic population forecasting

OpenAIRE

Sanderson, Warren; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian; Lutz, Wolfgang

2003-01-01

Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them...

Hesitant Probabilistic Fuzzy Linguistic Sets with Applications in Multi-Criteria Group Decision Making Problems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dheeraj Kumar Joshi

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Uncertainties due to randomness and fuzziness comprehensively exist in control and decision support systems. In the present study, we introduce notion of occurring probability of possible values into hesitant fuzzy linguistic element (HFLE and define hesitant probabilistic fuzzy linguistic set (HPFLS for ill structured and complex decision making problem. HPFLS provides a single framework where both stochastic and non-stochastic uncertainties can be efficiently handled along with hesitation. We have also proposed expected mean, variance, score and accuracy function and basic operations for HPFLS. Weighted and ordered weighted aggregation operators for HPFLS are also defined in the present study for its applications in multi-criteria group decision making (MCGDM problems. We propose a MCGDM method with HPFL information which is illustrated by an example. A real case study is also taken in the present study to rank State Bank of India, InfoTech Enterprises, I.T.C., H.D.F.C. Bank, Tata Steel, Tata Motors and Bajaj Finance using real data. Proposed HPFLS-based MCGDM method is also compared with two HFL-based decision making methods.

A gender-based comparison of academic rank and scholarly productivity in academic neurological surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Tomei, Krystal L; Nahass, Meghan M; Husain, Qasim; Agarwal, Nitin; Patel, Smruti K; Svider, Peter F; Eloy, Jean Anderson; Liu, James K

2014-07-01

The number of women pursuing training opportunities in neurological surgery has increased, although they are still underrepresented at senior positions relative to junior academic ranks. Research productivity is an important component of the academic advancement process. We sought to use the h-index, a bibliometric previously analyzed among neurological surgeons, to evaluate whether there are gender differences in academic rank and research productivity among academic neurological surgeons. The h-index was calculated for 1052 academic neurological surgeons from 84 institutions, and organized by gender and academic rank. Overall men had statistically higher research productivity (mean 13.3) than their female colleagues (mean 9.5), as measured by the h-index, in the overall sample (p0.05) in h-index at the assistant professor (mean 7.2 male, 6.3 female), associate professor (11.2 male, 10.8 female), and professor (20.0 male, 18.0 female) levels based on gender. There was insufficient data to determine significance at the chairperson rank, as there was only one female chairperson. Although overall gender differences in scholarly productivity were detected, these differences did not reach statistical significance upon controlling for academic rank. Women were grossly underrepresented at the level of chairpersons in this sample of 1052 academic neurological surgeons, likely a result of the low proportion of females in this specialty. Future studies may be needed to investigate gender-specific research trends for neurosurgical residents, a cohort that in recent years has seen increased representation by women. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Flood Defence Assessment Tools

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Slomp Robert

2016-01-01

institutions managing flood the defences, and not by just a small number of experts in probabilistic assessment. Therefore, data management and use of software are main issues that have been covered in courses and training in 2016 and 2017. All in all, this is the largest change in the assessment of Dutch flood defences since 1996. In 1996 probabilistic techniques were first introduced to determine hydraulic boundary conditions (water levels and waves (wave height, wave period and direction for different return periods. To simplify the process, the assessment continues to consist of a three-step approach, moving from simple decision rules, to the methods for semi-probabilistic assessment, and finally to a fully probabilistic analysis to compare the strength of flood defences with the hydraulic loads. The formal assessment results are thus mainly based on the fully probabilistic analysis and the ultimate limit state of the strength of a flood defence. For complex flood defences, additional models and software were developed. The current Hydra software suite (for policy analysis, formal flood defence assessment and design will be replaced by the model Ringtoets. New stand-alone software has been developed for revetments, geotechnical analysis and slope stability of the foreshore. Design software and policy analysis software, including the Delta model, will be updated in 2018. A fully probabilistic method results in more precise assessments and more transparency in the process of assessment and reconstruction of flood defences. This is of increasing importance, as large-scale infrastructural projects in a highly urbanized environment are increasingly subject to political and societal pressure to add additional features. For this reason, it is of increasing importance to be able to determine which new feature really adds to flood protection, to quantify how much its adds to the level of flood protection and to evaluate if it is really worthwhile. Please note: The Netherlands

The probabilistic approach in the licensing process and the development of probabilistic risk assessment methodology in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Togo, Y.; Sato, K.

1981-01-01

The probabilistic approach has long seemed to be one of the most comprehensive methods for evaluating the safety of nuclear plants. So far, most of the guidelines and criteria for licensing are based on the deterministic concept. However, there have been a few examples to which the probabilistic approach was directly applied, such as the evaluation of aircraft crashes and turbine missiles. One may find other examples of such applications. However, a much more important role is now to be played by this concept, in implementing the 52 recommendations from the lessons learned from the TMI accident. To develop the probabilistic risk assessment methodology most relevant to Japanese situations, a five-year programme plan has been adopted and is to be conducted by the Japan Atomic Research Institute from fiscal 1980. Various problems have been identified and are to be solved through this programme plan. The current status of developments is described together with activities outside the government programme. (author)

A General Framework for Probabilistic Characterizing Formulae

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sack, Joshua; Zhang, Lijun

2012-01-01

Recently, a general framework on characteristic formulae was proposed by Aceto et al. It offers a simple theory that allows one to easily obtain characteristic formulae of many non-probabilistic behavioral relations. Our paper studies their techniques in a probabilistic setting. We provide...... a general method for determining characteristic formulae of behavioral relations for probabilistic automata using fixed-point probability logics. We consider such behavioral relations as simulations and bisimulations, probabilistic bisimulations, probabilistic weak simulations, and probabilistic forward...

A cross-benchmark comparison of 87 learning to rank methods

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tax, N.; Bockting, S.; Hiemstra, D.

2015-01-01

Learning to rank is an increasingly important scientific field that comprises the use of machine learning for the ranking task. New learning to rank methods are generally evaluated on benchmark test collections. However, comparison of learning to rank methods based on evaluation results is hindered

A probabilistic Hu-Washizu variational principle

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, W. K.; Belytschko, T.; Besterfield, G. H.

1987-01-01

A Probabilistic Hu-Washizu Variational Principle (PHWVP) for the Probabilistic Finite Element Method (PFEM) is presented. This formulation is developed for both linear and nonlinear elasticity. The PHWVP allows incorporation of the probabilistic distributions for the constitutive law, compatibility condition, equilibrium, domain and boundary conditions into the PFEM. Thus, a complete probabilistic analysis can be performed where all aspects of the problem are treated as random variables and/or fields. The Hu-Washizu variational formulation is available in many conventional finite element codes thereby enabling the straightforward inclusion of the probabilistic features into present codes.

Ranking Journals Using Social Choice Theory Methods: A Novel Approach in Bibliometrics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aleskerov, F.T.; Pislyakov, V.; Subochev, A.N.

2016-07-01

We use data on economic, management and political science journals to produce quantitative estimates of (in)consistency of evaluations based on seven popular bibliometric indica (impact factor, 5-year impact factor, immediacy index, article influence score, h-index, SNIP and SJR). We propose a new approach to aggregating journal rankings: since rank aggregation is a multicriteria decision problem, ordinal ranking methods from social choice theory may solve it. We apply either a direct ranking method based on majority rule (the Copeland rule, the Markovian method) or a sorting procedure based on a tournament solution, such as the uncovered set and the minimal externally stable set. We demonstrate that aggregate rankings reduce the number of contradictions and represent the set of single-indicator-based rankings better than any of the seven rankings themselves. (Author)

A rank based social norms model of how people judge their levels of drunkenness whilst intoxicated

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon C. Moore

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A rank based social norms model predicts that drinkers’ judgements about their drinking will be based on the rank of their breath alcohol level amongst that of others in the immediate environment, rather than their actual breath alcohol level, with lower relative rank associated with greater feelings of safety. This study tested this hypothesis and examined how people judge their levels of drunkenness and the health consequences of their drinking whilst they are intoxicated in social drinking environments. Methods Breath alcohol testing of 1,862 people (mean age = 26.96 years; 61.86 % male in drinking environments. A subset (N = 400 also answered four questions asking about their perceptions of their drunkenness and the health consequences of their drinking (plus background measures. Results Perceptions of drunkenness and the health consequences of drinking were regressed on: (a breath alcohol level, (b the rank of the breath alcohol level amongst that of others in the same environment, and (c covariates. Only rank of breath alcohol level predicted perceptions: How drunk they felt (b 3.78, 95 % CI 1.69 5.87, how extreme they regarded their drinking that night (b 3.7, 95 % CI 1.3 6.20, how at risk their long-term health was due to their current level of drinking (b 4.1, 95 % CI 0.2 8.0 and how likely they felt they would experience liver cirrhosis (b 4.8. 95 % CI 0.7 8.8. People were more influenced by more sober others than by more drunk others. Conclusion Whilst intoxicated and in drinking environments, people base judgements regarding their drinking on how their level of intoxication ranks relative to that of others of the same gender around them, not on their actual levels of intoxication. Thus, when in the company of others who are intoxicated, drinkers were found to be more likely to underestimate their own level of drinking, drunkenness and associated risks. The implications of these results, for example

Probabilistic modeling of discourse-aware sentence processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Dubey, Amit; Keller, Frank; Sturt, Patrick

2013-07-01

Probabilistic models of sentence comprehension are increasingly relevant to questions concerning human language processing. However, such models are often limited to syntactic factors. This restriction is unrealistic in light of experimental results suggesting interactions between syntax and other forms of linguistic information in human sentence processing. To address this limitation, this article introduces two sentence processing models that augment a syntactic component with information about discourse co-reference. The novel combination of probabilistic syntactic components with co-reference classifiers permits them to more closely mimic human behavior than existing models. The first model uses a deep model of linguistics, based in part on probabilistic logic, allowing it to make qualitative predictions on experimental data; the second model uses shallow processing to make quantitative predictions on a broad-coverage reading-time corpus. Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Superstring motivated gauge models based on a rank six subgroup of E6

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lazarides, G.; Panagiotakopoulos, C.; Shafi, Q.

1987-01-01

We discuss gauge models based on a superstring motivated rank six subgroup of E 6 . Lepton number is an accidental unbroken symmetry of the models which leads to an essential stable proton. One of the neutral gauge bosons couples to B-L and may have mass below a TeV. (orig.)

Inherently stochastic spiking neurons for probabilistic neural computation

KAUST Repository

Al-Shedivat, Maruan

2015-04-01

Neuromorphic engineering aims to design hardware that efficiently mimics neural circuitry and provides the means for emulating and studying neural systems. In this paper, we propose a new memristor-based neuron circuit that uniquely complements the scope of neuron implementations and follows the stochastic spike response model (SRM), which plays a cornerstone role in spike-based probabilistic algorithms. We demonstrate that the switching of the memristor is akin to the stochastic firing of the SRM. Our analysis and simulations show that the proposed neuron circuit satisfies a neural computability condition that enables probabilistic neural sampling and spike-based Bayesian learning and inference. Our findings constitute an important step towards memristive, scalable and efficient stochastic neuromorphic platforms. © 2015 IEEE.

Making Probabilistic Relational Categories Learnable

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, Wookyoung; Hummel, John E.

2015-01-01

Theories of relational concept acquisition (e.g., schema induction) based on structured intersection discovery predict that relational concepts with a probabilistic (i.e., family resemblance) structure ought to be extremely difficult to learn. We report four experiments testing this prediction by investigating conditions hypothesized to facilitate…

Biological sequence analysis: probabilistic models of proteins and nucleic acids

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Durbin, Richard

1998-01-01

... analysis methods are now based on principles of probabilistic modelling. Examples of such methods include the use of probabilistically derived score matrices to determine the significance of sequence alignments, the use of hidden Markov models as the basis for profile searches to identify distant members of sequence families, and the inference...

Systematic evaluations of probabilistic floor response spectrum generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lilhanand, K.; Wing, D.W.; Tseng, W.S.

1985-01-01

The relative merits of the current methods for direct generation of probabilistic floor response spectra (FRS) from the prescribed design response spectra (DRS) are evaluated. The explicit probabilistic methods, which explicitly use the relationship between the power spectral density function (PSDF) and response spectra (RS), i.e., the PSDF-RS relationship, are found to have advantages for practical applications over the implicit methods. To evaluate the accuracy of the explicit methods, the root-mean-square (rms) response and the peak factor contained in the PSDF-RS relationship are systematically evaluated, especially for the narrow-band floor spectral response, by comparing the analytical results with simulation results. Based on the evaluation results, a method is recommended for practical use for the direct generation of probabilistic FRS. (orig.)

Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hardung von Hardung, H.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

Probabilistic safety goals. Phase 3 - Status report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holmberg, J.-E. (VTT (Finland)); Knochenhauer, M. (Relcon Scandpower AB, Sundbyberg (Sweden))

2009-07-15

The first phase of the project (2006) described the status, concepts and history of probabilistic safety goals for nuclear power plants. The second and third phases (2007-2008) have provided guidance related to the resolution of some of the problems identified, and resulted in a common understanding regarding the definition of safety goals. The basic aim of phase 3 (2009) has been to increase the scope and level of detail of the project, and to start preparations of a guidance document. Based on the conclusions from the previous project phases, the following issues have been covered: 1) Extension of international overview. Analysis of results from the questionnaire performed within the ongoing OECD/NEA WGRISK activity on probabilistic safety criteria, including participation in the preparation of the working report for OECD/NEA/WGRISK (to be finalised in phase 4). 2) Use of subsidiary criteria and relations between these (to be finalised in phase 4). 3) Numerical criteria when using probabilistic analyses in support of deterministic safety analysis (to be finalised in phase 4). 4) Guidance for the formulation, application and interpretation of probabilistic safety criteria (to be finalised in phase 4). (LN)

Probabilistic safety goals. Phase 3 - Status report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmberg, J.-E.; Knochenhauer, M.

2009-07-01

The first phase of the project (2006) described the status, concepts and history of probabilistic safety goals for nuclear power plants. The second and third phases (2007-2008) have provided guidance related to the resolution of some of the problems identified, and resulted in a common understanding regarding the definition of safety goals. The basic aim of phase 3 (2009) has been to increase the scope and level of detail of the project, and to start preparations of a guidance document. Based on the conclusions from the previous project phases, the following issues have been covered: 1) Extension of international overview. Analysis of results from the questionnaire performed within the ongoing OECD/NEA WGRISK activity on probabilistic safety criteria, including participation in the preparation of the working report for OECD/NEA/WGRISK (to be finalised in phase 4). 2) Use of subsidiary criteria and relations between these (to be finalised in phase 4). 3) Numerical criteria when using probabilistic analyses in support of deterministic safety analysis (to be finalised in phase 4). 4) Guidance for the formulation, application and interpretation of probabilistic safety criteria (to be finalised in phase 4). (LN)

PageRank, HITS and a unified framework for link analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ding, Chris; He, Xiaofeng; Husbands, Parry; Zha, Hongyuan; Simon, Horst

2001-10-01

Two popular webpage ranking algorithms are HITS and PageRank. HITS emphasizes mutual reinforcement between authority and hub webpages, while PageRank emphasizes hyperlink weight normalization and web surfing based on random walk models. We systematically generalize/combine these concepts into a unified framework. The ranking framework contains a large algorithm space; HITS and PageRank are two extreme ends in this space. We study several normalized ranking algorithms which are intermediate between HITS and PageRank, and obtain closed-form solutions. We show that, to first order approximation, all ranking algorithms in this framework, including PageRank and HITS, lead to same ranking which is highly correlated with ranking by indegree. These results support the notion that in web resource ranking indegree and outdegree are of fundamental importance. Rankings of webgraphs of different sizes and queries are presented to illustrate our analysis.

Detecting determinism with improved sensitivity in time series: rank-based nonlinear predictability score.

Science.gov (United States)

Naro, Daniel; Rummel, Christian; Schindler, Kaspar; Andrzejak, Ralph G

2014-09-01

The rank-based nonlinear predictability score was recently introduced as a test for determinism in point processes. We here adapt this measure to time series sampled from time-continuous flows. We use noisy Lorenz signals to compare this approach against a classical amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. Both measures show an almost identical robustness against Gaussian white noise. In contrast, when the amplitude distribution of the noise has a narrower central peak and heavier tails than the normal distribution, the rank-based nonlinear predictability score outperforms the amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. For this type of noise, the nonlinear predictability score has a higher sensitivity for deterministic structure in noisy signals. It also yields a higher statistical power in a surrogate test of the null hypothesis of linear stochastic correlated signals. We show the high relevance of this improved performance in an application to electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings from epilepsy patients. Here the nonlinear predictability score again appears of higher sensitivity to nonrandomness. Importantly, it yields an improved contrast between signals recorded from brain areas where the first ictal EEG signal changes were detected (focal EEG signals) versus signals recorded from brain areas that were not involved at seizure onset (nonfocal EEG signals).

Groundwater contaminant plume ranking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-08-01

Containment plumes at Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project sites were ranked to assist in Subpart B (i.e., restoration requirements of 40 CFR Part 192) compliance strategies for each site, to prioritize aquifer restoration, and to budget future requests and allocations. The rankings roughly estimate hazards to the environment and human health, and thus assist in determining for which sites cleanup, if appropriate, will provide the greatest benefits for funds available. The rankings are based on the scores that were obtained using the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Modified Hazard Ranking System (MHRS). The MHRS and HRS consider and score three hazard modes for a site: migration, fire and explosion, and direct contact. The migration hazard mode score reflects the potential for harm to humans or the environment from migration of a hazardous substance off a site by groundwater, surface water, and air; it is a composite of separate scores for each of these routes. For ranking the containment plumes at UMTRA Project sites, it was assumed that each site had been remediated in compliance with the EPA standards and that relict contaminant plumes were present. Therefore, only the groundwater route was scored, and the surface water and air routes were not considered. Section 2.0 of this document describes the assumptions and procedures used to score the groundwater route, and Section 3.0 provides the resulting scores for each site. 40 tabs

Probabilistic Location-based Routing Protocol for Mobile Wireless Sensor Networks with Intermittent Communication

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sho KUMAGAI

2015-02-01

Full Text Available In a sensor network, sensor data messages reach the nearest stationary sink node connected to the Internet by wireless multihop transmissions. Recently, various mobile sensors are available due to advances of robotics technologies and communication technologies. A location based message-by-message routing protocol, such as Geographic Distance Routing (GEDIR is suitable for such mobile wireless networks; however, it is required for each mobile wireless sensor node to know the current locations of all its neighbor nodes. On the other hand, various intermittent communication methods for a low power consumption requirement have been proposed for wireless sensor networks. Intermittent Receiver-driven Data Transmission (IRDT is one of the most efficient methods; however, it is difficult to combine the location based routing and the intermittent communication. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposes a probabilistic approach IRDT-GEDIR with the help of one of the solutions of the secretaries problem. Here, each time a neighbor sensor node wakes up from its sleep mode, an intermediate sensor node determines whether it forwards its buffered sensor data messages to it or not based on an estimation of achieved pseudo speed of the messages. Simulation experiments show that IRDT-GEDIR achieves higher pseudo speed of sensor data message transmissions and shorter transmission delay than achieves shorter transmission delay than the two naive combinations of IRDT and GEDIR in sensor networks with mobile sensor nodes and a stationary sink node. In addition, the guideline of the estimated numbers of the neighbor nodes of each intermediate sensor node is provided based on the results of the simulation experiments to apply the probabilistic approach IRDT-GEDIR.

Probabilistic Logic and Probabilistic Networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haenni, R.; Romeijn, J.-W.; Wheeler, G.; Williamson, J.

2009-01-01

While in principle probabilistic logics might be applied to solve a range of problems, in practice they are rarely applied at present. This is perhaps because they seem disparate, complicated, and computationally intractable. However, we shall argue in this programmatic paper that several approaches

Accuracy of the Bethe approximation for hyperparameter estimation in probabilistic image processing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, Kazuyuki; Shouno, Hayaru; Okada, Masato; Titterington, D M

2004-01-01

We investigate the accuracy of statistical-mechanical approximations for the estimation of hyperparameters from observable data in probabilistic image processing, which is based on Bayesian statistics and maximum likelihood estimation. Hyperparameters in statistical science correspond to interactions or external fields in the statistical-mechanics context. In this paper, hyperparameters in the probabilistic model are determined so as to maximize a marginal likelihood. A practical algorithm is described for grey-level image restoration based on a Gaussian graphical model and the Bethe approximation. The algorithm corresponds to loopy belief propagation in artificial intelligence. We examine the accuracy of hyperparameter estimation when we use the Bethe approximation. It is well known that a practical algorithm for probabilistic image processing can be prescribed analytically when a Gaussian graphical model is adopted as a prior probabilistic model in Bayes' formula. We are therefore able to compare, in a numerical study, results obtained through mean-field-type approximations with those based on exact calculation

An adaptive ES with a ranking based constraint handling strategy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kusakci Ali Osman

2014-01-01

Full Text Available To solve a constrained optimization problem, equality constraints can be used to eliminate a problem variable. If it is not feasible, the relations imposed implicitly by the constraints can still be exploited. Most conventional constraint handling methods in Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs do not consider the correlations between problem variables imposed by the constraints. This paper relies on the idea that a proper search operator, which captures mentioned implicit correlations, can improve performance of evolutionary constrained optimization algorithms. To realize this, an Evolution Strategy (ES along with a simplified Covariance Matrix Adaptation (CMA based mutation operator is used with a ranking based constraint-handling method. The proposed algorithm is tested on 13 benchmark problems as well as on a real life design problem. The outperformance of the algorithm is significant when compared with conventional ES-based methods.

Integrating statistical and process-based models to produce probabilistic landslide hazard at regional scale

Science.gov (United States)

Strauch, R. L.; Istanbulluoglu, E.

2017-12-01

We develop a landslide hazard modeling approach that integrates a data-driven statistical model and a probabilistic process-based shallow landslide model for mapping probability of landslide initiation, transport, and deposition at regional scales. The empirical model integrates the influence of seven site attribute (SA) classes: elevation, slope, curvature, aspect, land use-land cover, lithology, and topographic wetness index, on over 1,600 observed landslides using a frequency ratio (FR) approach. A susceptibility index is calculated by adding FRs for each SA on a grid-cell basis. Using landslide observations we relate susceptibility index to an empirically-derived probability of landslide impact. This probability is combined with results from a physically-based model to produce an integrated probabilistic map. Slope was key in landslide initiation while deposition was linked to lithology and elevation. Vegetation transition from forest to alpine vegetation and barren land cover with lower root cohesion leads to higher frequency of initiation. Aspect effects are likely linked to differences in root cohesion and moisture controlled by solar insulation and snow. We demonstrate the model in the North Cascades of Washington, USA and identify locations of high and low probability of landslide impacts that can be used by land managers in their design, planning, and maintenance.

Predictive control for stochastic systems based on multi-layer probabilistic sets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huaqing LIANG

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Aiming at a class of discrete-time stochastic systems with Markov jump features, the state-feedback predictive control problem under probabilistic constraints of input variables is researched. On the basis of the concept and method of the multi-layer probabilistic sets, the predictive controller design algorithm with the soft constraints of different probabilities is presented. Under the control of the multi-step feedback laws, the system state moves to different ellipses with specified probabilities. The stability of the system is guaranteed, the feasible region of the control problem is enlarged, and the system performance is improved. Finally, a simulation example is given to prove the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Grid-based lattice summation of electrostatic potentials by assembled rank-structured tensor approximation

Science.gov (United States)

Khoromskaia, Venera; Khoromskij, Boris N.

2014-12-01

Our recent method for low-rank tensor representation of sums of the arbitrarily positioned electrostatic potentials discretized on a 3D Cartesian grid reduces the 3D tensor summation to operations involving only 1D vectors however retaining the linear complexity scaling in the number of potentials. Here, we introduce and study a novel tensor approach for fast and accurate assembled summation of a large number of lattice-allocated potentials represented on 3D N × N × N grid with the computational requirements only weakly dependent on the number of summed potentials. It is based on the assembled low-rank canonical tensor representations of the collected potentials using pointwise sums of shifted canonical vectors representing the single generating function, say the Newton kernel. For a sum of electrostatic potentials over L × L × L lattice embedded in a box the required storage scales linearly in the 1D grid-size, O(N) , while the numerical cost is estimated by O(NL) . For periodic boundary conditions, the storage demand remains proportional to the 1D grid-size of a unit cell, n = N / L, while the numerical cost reduces to O(N) , that outperforms the FFT-based Ewald-type summation algorithms of complexity O(N3 log N) . The complexity in the grid parameter N can be reduced even to the logarithmic scale O(log N) by using data-sparse representation of canonical N-vectors via the quantics tensor approximation. For justification, we prove an upper bound on the quantics ranks for the canonical vectors in the overall lattice sum. The presented approach is beneficial in applications which require further functional calculus with the lattice potential, say, scalar product with a function, integration or differentiation, which can be performed easily in tensor arithmetics on large 3D grids with 1D cost. Numerical tests illustrate the performance of the tensor summation method and confirm the estimated bounds on the tensor ranks.

EVALUATION OF MILITARY ACTIVITY IMPACT ON HUMANS THROUGH A PROBABILISTIC ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT. EXAMPLE OF A FORMER MISSILE BASE.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergiy ОREL

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The current article provides a methodology focused on the assessment of environmental factors after termination of military activity and uses a former missile base as an example. The assessment of environmental conditions is performed through an evaluation of the risks posed by the hazardous chemicals contained by underground and surface water sources and soil to human health . Moreover, by conducting deterministic and probabilistic risk assessments, the article determines that the probabilistic assessment provides more accurate and qualitative information for decision-making on the use of environmental protection measures, which often saves financial and material resources needed for their implementation.

A tilting approach to ranking influence

KAUST Repository

Genton, Marc G.

2014-12-01

We suggest a new approach, which is applicable for general statistics computed from random samples of univariate or vector-valued or functional data, to assessing the influence that individual data have on the value of a statistic, and to ranking the data in terms of that influence. Our method is based on, first, perturbing the value of the statistic by ‘tilting’, or reweighting, each data value, where the total amount of tilt is constrained to be the least possible, subject to achieving a given small perturbation of the statistic, and, then, taking the ranking of the influence of data values to be that which corresponds to ranking the changes in data weights. It is shown, both theoretically and numerically, that this ranking does not depend on the size of the perturbation, provided that the perturbation is sufficiently small. That simple result leads directly to an elegant geometric interpretation of the ranks; they are the ranks of the lengths of projections of the weights onto a ‘line’ determined by the first empirical principal component function in a generalized measure of covariance. To illustrate the generality of the method we introduce and explore it in the case of functional data, where (for example) it leads to generalized boxplots. The method has the advantage of providing an interpretable ranking that depends on the statistic under consideration. For example, the ranking of data, in terms of their influence on the value of a statistic, is different for a measure of location and for a measure of scale. This is as it should be; a ranking of data in terms of their influence should depend on the manner in which the data are used. Additionally, the ranking recognizes, rather than ignores, sign, and in particular can identify left- and right-hand ‘tails’ of the distribution of a random function or vector.

RANK and RANK ligand expression in primary human osteosarcoma

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Branstetter

2015-09-01

Our results demonstrate RANKL expression was observed in the tumor element in 68% of human OS using IHC. However, the staining intensity was relatively low and only 37% (29/79 of samples exhibited≥10% RANKL positive tumor cells. RANK expression was not observed in OS tumor cells. In contrast, RANK expression was clearly observed in other cells within OS samples, including the myeloid osteoclast precursor compartment, osteoclasts and in giant osteoclast cells. The intensity and frequency of RANKL and RANK staining in OS samples were substantially less than that observed in GCTB samples. The observation that RANKL is expressed in OS cells themselves suggests that these tumors may mediate an osteoclastic response, and anti-RANKL therapy may potentially be protective against bone pathologies in OS. However, the absence of RANK expression in primary human OS cells suggests that any autocrine RANKL/RANK signaling in human OS tumor cells is not operative, and anti-RANKL therapy would not directly affect the tumor.

Probabilistic programmable quantum processors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buzek, V.; Ziman, M.; Hillery, M.

2004-01-01

We analyze how to improve performance of probabilistic programmable quantum processors. We show how the probability of success of the probabilistic processor can be enhanced by using the processor in loops. In addition, we show that an arbitrary SU(2) transformations of qubits can be encoded in program state of a universal programmable probabilistic quantum processor. The probability of success of this processor can be enhanced by a systematic correction of errors via conditional loops. Finally, we show that all our results can be generalized also for qudits. (Abstract Copyright [2004], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Probabilistic safety assessment goals in Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Snell, V.G.

1986-01-01

CANDU safety philosphy, both in design and in licensing, has always had a strong bias towards quantitative probabilistically-based goals derived from comparative safety. Formal probabilistic safety assessment began in Canada as a design tool. The influence of this carried over later on into the definition of the deterministic safety guidelines used in CANDU licensing. Design goals were further developed which extended the consequence/frequency spectrum of 'acceptable' events, from the two points defined by the deterministic single/dual failure analysis, to a line passing through lower and higher frequencies. Since these were design tools, a complete risk summation was not necessary, allowing a cutoff at low event frequencies while preserving the identification of the most significant safety-related events. These goals gave a logical framework for making decisions on implementing design changes proposed as a result of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. Performing this analysis became a regulatory requirement, and the design goals remained the framework under which this was submitted. Recently, there have been initiatives to incorporate more detailed probabilistic safety goals into the regulatory process in Canada. These range from far-reaching safety optimization across society, to initiatives aimed at the nuclear industry only. The effectiveness of the latter is minor at very low and very high event frequencies; at medium frequencies, a justification against expenditures per life saved in other industries should be part of the goal setting

Probabilistic commodity-flow-based focusing of monitoring activities to facilitate early detection of Phytophthora ramorum outbreaks

Science.gov (United States)

Steven C. McKelvey; William D. Smith; Frank Koch

2012-01-01

This project summary describes a probabilistic model developed with funding support from the Forest Health Monitoring Program of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (BaseEM Project SO-R-08-01). The model has been implemented in SODBuster, a standalone software package developed using the Java software development kit from Sun Microsystems.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment Method for Nonlinear Soil Sites based on the Hazard Spectrum of Bedrock Sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hahm, Dae Gi; Seo, Jeong Moon; Choi, In Kil

2011-01-01

For the probabilistic safety assessment of the nuclear power plants (NPP) under seismic events, the rational probabilistic seismic hazard estimation should be performed. Generally, the probabilistic seismic hazard of NPP site is represented by the uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) for the specific annual frequency. In most case, since that the attenuation equations were defined for the bedrock sites, the standard attenuation laws cannot be applied to the general soft soil sites. Hence, for the probabilistic estimation of the seismic hazard of soft soil sites, a methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) coupled with nonlinear dynamic analyses of the soil column are required. Two methods are commonly used for the site response analysis considering the nonlinearity of sites. The one is the deterministic method and another is the probabilistic method. In the analysis of site response, there exist many uncertainty factors such as the variation of the magnitude and frequency contents of input ground motion, and material properties of soil deposits. Hence, nowadays, it is recommended that the adoption of the probabilistic method for the PSHA of soft soil deposits considering such uncertainty factors. In this study, we estimated the amplification factor of the surface of the soft soil deposits with considering the uncertainties of the input ground motions and the soil material properties. Then, we proposed the probabilistic methodology to evaluate the UHS of the soft soil site by multiplying the amplification factor to that of the bedrock site. The proposed method was applied to four typical target sites of KNGR and APR1400 NPP site categories

A state-based probabilistic model for tumor respiratory motion prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalet, Alan; Sandison, George; Schmitz, Ruth; Wu Huanmei

2010-01-01

This work proposes a new probabilistic mathematical model for predicting tumor motion and position based on a finite state representation using the natural breathing states of exhale, inhale and end of exhale. Tumor motion was broken down into linear breathing states and sequences of states. Breathing state sequences and the observables representing those sequences were analyzed using a hidden Markov model (HMM) to predict the future sequences and new observables. Velocities and other parameters were clustered using a k-means clustering algorithm to associate each state with a set of observables such that a prediction of state also enables a prediction of tumor velocity. A time average model with predictions based on average past state lengths was also computed. State sequences which are known a priori to fit the data were fed into the HMM algorithm to set a theoretical limit of the predictive power of the model. The effectiveness of the presented probabilistic model has been evaluated for gated radiation therapy based on previously tracked tumor motion in four lung cancer patients. Positional prediction accuracy is compared with actual position in terms of the overall RMS errors. Various system delays, ranging from 33 to 1000 ms, were tested. Previous studies have shown duty cycles for latencies of 33 and 200 ms at around 90% and 80%, respectively, for linear, no prediction, Kalman filter and ANN methods as averaged over multiple patients. At 1000 ms, the previously reported duty cycles range from approximately 62% (ANN) down to 34% (no prediction). Average duty cycle for the HMM method was found to be 100% and 91 ± 3% for 33 and 200 ms latency and around 40% for 1000 ms latency in three out of four breathing motion traces. RMS errors were found to be lower than linear and no prediction methods at latencies of 1000 ms. The results show that for system latencies longer than 400 ms, the time average HMM prediction outperforms linear, no prediction, and the more

Probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, Shun-Peng; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Peng, Weiwen; Wang, Hai-Kun; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2016-01-01

A probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs operating under uncertainty is developed. The framework incorporates the overall uncertainties appearing in a structural integrity assessment. A comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) procedure is presented to quantify multiple types of uncertainty using multiplicative and additive UQ methods. In addition, the factors that contribute the most to the resulting output uncertainty are investigated and identified for uncertainty reduction in decision-making. A high prediction accuracy of the proposed framework is validated through a comparison of model predictions to the experimental results of GH4133 superalloy and full-scale tests of aero engine high-pressure turbine discs. - Highlights: • A probabilistic PoF-based framework for fatigue life prediction is proposed. • A comprehensive procedure forquantifyingmultiple types of uncertaintyis presented. • The factors that contribute most to the resulting output uncertainty are identified. • The proposed frameworkdemonstrates high prediction accuracybyfull-scale tests.

RANK/RANK-Ligand/OPG: Ein neuer Therapieansatz in der Osteoporosebehandlung

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Preisinger E

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Die Erforschung der Kopplungsmechanismen zur Osteoklastogenese, Knochenresorption und Remodellierung eröffnete neue mögliche Therapieansätze in der Behandlung der Osteoporose. Eine Schlüsselrolle beim Knochenabbau spielt der RANK- ("receptor activator of nuclear factor (NF- κB"- Ligand (RANKL. Durch die Bindung von RANKL an den Rezeptor RANK wird die Knochenresorption eingeleitet. OPG (Osteoprotegerin sowie der für den klinischen Gebrauch entwickelte humane monoklonale Antikörper (IgG2 Denosumab blockieren die Bindung von RANK-Ligand an RANK und verhindern den Knochenabbau.

A Model-Based Probabilistic Inversion Framework for Wire Fault Detection Using TDR

Science.gov (United States)

Schuet, Stefan R.; Timucin, Dogan A.; Wheeler, Kevin R.

2010-01-01

Time-domain reflectometry (TDR) is one of the standard methods for diagnosing faults in electrical wiring and interconnect systems, with a long-standing history focused mainly on hardware development of both high-fidelity systems for laboratory use and portable hand-held devices for field deployment. While these devices can easily assess distance to hard faults such as sustained opens or shorts, their ability to assess subtle but important degradation such as chafing remains an open question. This paper presents a unified framework for TDR-based chafing fault detection in lossy coaxial cables by combining an S-parameter based forward modeling approach with a probabilistic (Bayesian) inference algorithm. Results are presented for the estimation of nominal and faulty cable parameters from laboratory data.

Development of probabilistic evaluation methodology for structural integrity of nuclear components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Gang Yong; Yang, Jee Hyeok; Shin, Jeong Woo; Hong, Soon Won; Lee, Won Gyu; Kim, Goo Yeong

1999-03-01

Since integrity is very important in Nuclear Power Plants, there have been a lot of researches and several rules are provided. But these are mostly based on the concept of the deterministic fracture mechanics and in many cases, those rules are unrealistic or conservative. Therefore, the concept of the probabilistic fracture mechanics considering the realistic failure of the structure and the quantitative failure probability is introduced in many fields. There have been many researches on the probabilistic fracture mechanics in world, but a few in Korea. The final object of our research os to develop the code years. In the first year study, we obtained the concept of the probabilistic fracture mechanics by reviewing the papers about the integrity evaluation of the nuclear pressure vessel on the base of the probabilistic fracture mechanics and selected the important random variables by comparing the effects of random variables on the failure probability using the existing code

A Probabilistic Approach for Robustness Evaluation of Timber Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

of Structures and a probabilistic modelling of the timber material proposed in the Probabilistic Model Code (PMC) of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS). Due to the framework in the Danish Code the timber structure has to be evaluated with respect to the following criteria where at least one shall...... to criteria a) and b) the timber frame structure has one column with a reliability index a bit lower than an assumed target level. By removal three columns one by one no significant extensive failure of the entire structure or significant parts of it are obatined. Therefore the structure can be considered......A probabilistic based robustness analysis has been performed for a glulam frame structure supporting the roof over the main court in a Norwegian sports centre. The robustness analysis is based on the framework for robustness analysis introduced in the Danish Code of Practice for the Safety...

Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hiemer, S.

2014-07-01

The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a

Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hiemer, S.

2014-01-01

The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a

Rank-defective millimeter-wave channel estimation based on subspace-compressive sensing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Majid Shakhsi Dastgahian

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Millimeter-wave communication (mmWC is considered as one of the pioneer candidates for 5G indoor and outdoor systems in E-band. To subdue the channel propagation characteristics in this band, high dimensional antenna arrays need to be deployed at both the base station (BS and mobile sets (MS. Unlike the conventional MIMO systems, Millimeter-wave (mmW systems lay away to employ the power predatory equipment such as ADC or RF chain in each branch of MIMO system because of hardware constraints. Such systems leverage to the hybrid precoding (combining architecture for downlink deployment. Because there is a large array at the transceiver, it is impossible to estimate the channel by conventional methods. This paper develops a new algorithm to estimate the mmW channel by exploiting the sparse nature of the channel. The main contribution is the representation of a sparse channel model and the exploitation of a modified approach based on Multiple Measurement Vector (MMV greedy sparse framework and subspace method of Multiple Signal Classification (MUSIC which work together to recover the indices of non-zero elements of an unknown channel matrix when the rank of the channel matrix is defected. In practical rank-defective channels, MUSIC fails, and we need to propose new extended MUSIC approaches based on subspace enhancement to compensate the limitation of MUSIC. Simulation results indicate that our proposed extended MUSIC algorithms will have proper performances and moderate computational speeds, and that they are even able to work in channels with an unknown sparsity level.

PROBABILISTIC RELATIONAL MODELS OF COMPLETE IL-SEMIRINGS

OpenAIRE

Tsumagari, Norihiro

2012-01-01

This paper studies basic properties of probabilistic multirelations which are generalized the semantic domain of probabilistic systems and then provides two probabilistic models of complete IL-semirings using probabilistic multirelations. Also it is shown that these models need not be models of complete idempotentsemirings.

A perspective of PC-based probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.; Robinson, R.C.; Russell, K.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) information has been under-utilized in the past due to the large effort required to input the PRA data and the large expense of the computers needed to run PRA codes. The microcomputer-based Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) and the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System, under development at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, have greatly enhanced the ability of managers to use PRA techniques in their decision-making. IRRAS is a tool that allows an analyst to create, modify, update, and reanalyze a plant PRA to keep the risk assessment current with the plant's configuration and operation. The SARA system is used to perform sensitivity studies on the results of a PRA. This type of analysis can be used to evaluate proposed changes to a plant or its operation. The success of these two software projects demonstrate that risk information can be made readily available to those that need it. This is the first step in the development of a true risk management capability

Fuzzy Group Decision Making Approach for Ranking Work Stations Based on Physical Pressure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hamed Salmanzadeh

2014-06-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a Fuzzy Group Decision Making approach for ranking work stations based on physical pressure. Fuzzy group decision making approach allows experts to evaluate different ergonomic factors using linguistic terms such as very high, high, medium, low, very low, rather than precise numerical values. In this way, there is no need to measure parameters and evaluation can be easily made in a group. According to ergonomics much work contents and situations, accompanied with multiple parameters and uncertainties, fuzzy group decision making is the best way to evaluate such a chameleon of concept. A case study was down to utilize the approach and illustrate its application in ergonomic assessment and ranking the work stations based on work pressure and found that this approach provides flexibility, practicality, efficiency in making decision around ergonomics areas. The normalized defuzzification numbers which are resulted from this method are compared with result of quantitative assessment of Automotive Assembly Work Sheet auto, it’s demonstrated that the proposed method result is 10% less than Automotive Assembly Work Sheet, approximately.

Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation: An Efficient Statistical Approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wan, Can; Lin, Jin; Song, Yonghua

2017-01-01

This letter proposes a novel efficient probabilistic forecasting approach to accurately quantify the variability and uncertainty of the power production from photovoltaic (PV) systems. Distinguished from most existing models, a linear programming based prediction interval construction model for P...... power generation is proposed based on extreme learning machine and quantile regression, featuring high reliability and computational efficiency. The proposed approach is validated through the numerical studies on PV data from Denmark.......This letter proposes a novel efficient probabilistic forecasting approach to accurately quantify the variability and uncertainty of the power production from photovoltaic (PV) systems. Distinguished from most existing models, a linear programming based prediction interval construction model for PV...

Diversifying customer review rankings.

Science.gov (United States)

Krestel, Ralf; Dokoohaki, Nima

2015-06-01

E-commerce Web sites owe much of their popularity to consumer reviews accompanying product descriptions. On-line customers spend hours and hours going through heaps of textual reviews to decide which products to buy. At the same time, each popular product has thousands of user-generated reviews, making it impossible for a buyer to read everything. Current approaches to display reviews to users or recommend an individual review for a product are based on the recency or helpfulness of each review. In this paper, we present a framework to rank product reviews by optimizing the coverage of the ranking with respect to sentiment or aspects, or by summarizing all reviews with the top-K reviews in the ranking. To accomplish this, we make use of the assigned star rating for a product as an indicator for a review's sentiment polarity and compare bag-of-words (language model) with topic models (latent Dirichlet allocation) as a mean to represent aspects. Our evaluation on manually annotated review data from a commercial review Web site demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach, outperforming plain recency ranking by 30% and obtaining best results by combining language and topic model representations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Model for Fatigue Crack Growth in Welded Bridge Details

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Yalamas, Thierry

2013-01-01

In the present paper a probabilistic model for fatigue crack growth in welded steel details in road bridges is presented. The probabilistic model takes the influence of bending stresses in the joints into account. The bending stresses can either be introduced by e.g. misalignment or redistribution...... of stresses in the structure. The fatigue stress ranges are estimated from traffic measurements and a generic bridge model. Based on the probabilistic models for the resistance and load the reliability is estimated for a typical welded steel detail. The results show that large misalignments in the joints can...

Measuring reliability under epistemic uncertainty: Review on non-probabilistic reliability metrics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kang Rui

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a systematic review of non-probabilistic reliability metrics is conducted to assist the selection of appropriate reliability metrics to model the influence of epistemic uncertainty. Five frequently used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are critically reviewed, i.e., evidence-theory-based reliability metrics, interval-analysis-based reliability metrics, fuzzy-interval-analysis-based reliability metrics, possibility-theory-based reliability metrics (posbist reliability and uncertainty-theory-based reliability metrics (belief reliability. It is pointed out that a qualified reliability metric that is able to consider the effect of epistemic uncertainty needs to (1 compensate the conservatism in the estimations of the component-level reliability metrics caused by epistemic uncertainty, and (2 satisfy the duality axiom, otherwise it might lead to paradoxical and confusing results in engineering applications. The five commonly used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are compared in terms of these two properties, and the comparison can serve as a basis for the selection of the appropriate reliability metrics.

Texture Repairing by Unified Low Rank Optimization

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Xiao Liang; Xiang Ren; Zhengdong Zhang; Yi Ma

2016-01-01

In this paper, we show how to harness both low-rank and sparse structures in regular or near-regular textures for image completion. Our method is based on a unified formulation for both random and contiguous corruption. In addition to the low rank property of texture, the algorithm also uses the sparse assumption of the natural image: because the natural image is piecewise smooth, it is sparse in certain transformed domain (such as Fourier or wavelet transform). We combine low-rank and sparsity properties of the texture image together in the proposed algorithm. Our algorithm based on convex optimization can automatically and correctly repair the global structure of a corrupted texture, even without precise information about the regions to be completed. This algorithm integrates texture rectification and repairing into one optimization problem. Through extensive simulations, we show our method can complete and repair textures corrupted by errors with both random and contiguous supports better than existing low-rank matrix recovery methods. Our method demonstrates significant advantage over local patch based texture synthesis techniques in dealing with large corruption, non-uniform texture, and large perspective deformation.

PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

1996-01-01

A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

Generalization Performance of Regularized Ranking With Multiscale Kernels.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yicong; Chen, Hong; Lan, Rushi; Pan, Zhibin

2016-05-01

The regularized kernel method for the ranking problem has attracted increasing attentions in machine learning. The previous regularized ranking algorithms are usually based on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces with a single kernel. In this paper, we go beyond this framework by investigating the generalization performance of the regularized ranking with multiscale kernels. A novel ranking algorithm with multiscale kernels is proposed and its representer theorem is proved. We establish the upper bound of the generalization error in terms of the complexity of hypothesis spaces. It shows that the multiscale ranking algorithm can achieve satisfactory learning rates under mild conditions. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method for drug discovery and recommendation tasks.

A robust probabilistic collaborative representation based classification for multimodal biometrics

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jing; Liu, Huanxi; Ding, Derui; Xiao, Jianli

2018-04-01

Most of the traditional biometric recognition systems perform recognition with a single biometric indicator. These systems have suffered noisy data, interclass variations, unacceptable error rates, forged identity, and so on. Due to these inherent problems, it is not valid that many researchers attempt to enhance the performance of unimodal biometric systems with single features. Thus, multimodal biometrics is investigated to reduce some of these defects. This paper proposes a new multimodal biometric recognition approach by fused faces and fingerprints. For more recognizable features, the proposed method extracts block local binary pattern features for all modalities, and then combines them into a single framework. For better classification, it employs the robust probabilistic collaborative representation based classifier to recognize individuals. Experimental results indicate that the proposed method has improved the recognition accuracy compared to the unimodal biometrics.

Monte Carlo methods of PageRank computation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Litvak, Nelli

2004-01-01

We describe and analyze an on-line Monte Carlo method of PageRank computation. The PageRank is being estimated basing on results of a large number of short independent simulation runs initiated from each page that contains outgoing hyperlinks. The method does not require any storage of the hyperlink

Dynamic collective entity representations for entity ranking

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Graus, D.; Tsagkias, M.; Weerkamp, W.; Meij, E.; de Rijke, M.

2016-01-01

Entity ranking, i.e., successfully positioning a relevant entity at the top of the ranking for a given query, is inherently difficult due to the potential mismatch between the entity's description in a knowledge base, and the way people refer to the entity when searching for it. To counter this

Probabilistic, meso-scale flood loss modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

Flood risk analyses are an important basis for decisions on flood risk management and adaptation. However, such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments and even more for flood loss modelling. State of the art in flood loss modelling is still the use of simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood loss models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we demonstrate and evaluate the upscaling of the approach to the meso-scale, namely on the basis of land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany (Botto et al. submitted). The application of bagging decision tree based loss models provide a probability distribution of estimated loss per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight deterministic loss models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of loss estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation approach is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. References: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64. Botto A, Kreibich H, Merz B, Schröter K (submitted) Probabilistic, multi-variable flood loss modelling on the meso-scale with BT-FLEMO. Risk Analysis.

On synchronous parallel computations with independent probabilistic choice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reif, J.H.

1984-01-01

This paper introduces probabilistic choice to synchronous parallel machine models; in particular parallel RAMs. The power of probabilistic choice in parallel computations is illustrate by parallelizing some known probabilistic sequential algorithms. The authors characterize the computational complexity of time, space, and processor bounded probabilistic parallel RAMs in terms of the computational complexity of probabilistic sequential RAMs. They show that parallelism uniformly speeds up time bounded probabilistic sequential RAM computations by nearly a quadratic factor. They also show that probabilistic choice can be eliminated from parallel computations by introducing nonuniformity

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Theory Development

Science.gov (United States)

Burnside, O. H.

1985-01-01

The objective of the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project is to develop analysis techniques and computer programs for predicting the probabilistic response of critical structural components for current and future space propulsion systems. This technology will play a central role in establishing system performance and durability. The first year's technical activity is concentrating on probabilistic finite element formulation strategy and code development. Work is also in progress to survey critical materials and space shuttle mian engine components. The probabilistic finite element computer program NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) is being developed. The final probabilistic code will have, in the general case, the capability of performing nonlinear dynamic of stochastic structures. It is the goal of the approximate methods effort to increase problem solving efficiency relative to finite element methods by using energy methods to generate trial solutions which satisfy the structural boundary conditions. These approximate methods will be less computer intensive relative to the finite element approach.

ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH PROBABILISTIC FAILURE MODELING OF DIGITAL SYSTEMS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

CHU, T.L.; MARTINEZ-GURIDI, G.; LIHNER, J.; OVERLAND, D.

2004-01-01

The current U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing process of instrumentation and control (I and C) systems is based on deterministic requirements, e.g., single failure criteria, and defense in depth and diversity. Probabilistic considerations can be used as supplements to the deterministic process. The National Research Council has recommended development of methods for estimating failure probabilities of digital systems, including commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) equipment, for use in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). NRC staff has developed informal qualitative and quantitative requirements for PRA modeling of digital systems. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has performed a review of the-state-of-the-art of the methods and tools that can potentially be used to model digital systems. The objectives of this paper are to summarize the review, discuss the issues associated with probabilistic modeling of digital systems, and identify potential areas of research that would enhance the state of the art toward a satisfactory modeling method that could be integrated with a typical probabilistic risk assessment

Probabilistic Decision Based Block Partitioning for Future Video Coding

KAUST Repository

Wang, Zhao

2017-11-29

In the latest Joint Video Exploration Team development, the quadtree plus binary tree (QTBT) block partitioning structure has been proposed for future video coding. Compared to the traditional quadtree structure of High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC) standard, QTBT provides more flexible patterns for splitting the blocks, which results in dramatically increased combinations of block partitions and high computational complexity. In view of this, a confidence interval based early termination (CIET) scheme is proposed for QTBT to identify the unnecessary partition modes in the sense of rate-distortion (RD) optimization. In particular, a RD model is established to predict the RD cost of each partition pattern without the full encoding process. Subsequently, the mode decision problem is casted into a probabilistic framework to select the final partition based on the confidence interval decision strategy. Experimental results show that the proposed CIET algorithm can speed up QTBT block partitioning structure by reducing 54.7% encoding time with only 1.12% increase in terms of bit rate. Moreover, the proposed scheme performs consistently well for the high resolution sequences, of which the video coding efficiency is crucial in real applications.

A Ranking Approach on Large-Scale Graph With Multidimensional Heterogeneous Information.

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Wei; Gao, Bin; Liu, Tie-Yan; Wang, Taifeng; Li, Guohui; Li, Hang

2016-04-01

Graph-based ranking has been extensively studied and frequently applied in many applications, such as webpage ranking. It aims at mining potentially valuable information from the raw graph-structured data. Recently, with the proliferation of rich heterogeneous information (e.g., node/edge features and prior knowledge) available in many real-world graphs, how to effectively and efficiently leverage all information to improve the ranking performance becomes a new challenging problem. Previous methods only utilize part of such information and attempt to rank graph nodes according to link-based methods, of which the ranking performances are severely affected by several well-known issues, e.g., over-fitting or high computational complexity, especially when the scale of graph is very large. In this paper, we address the large-scale graph-based ranking problem and focus on how to effectively exploit rich heterogeneous information of the graph to improve the ranking performance. Specifically, we propose an innovative and effective semi-supervised PageRank (SSP) approach to parameterize the derived information within a unified semi-supervised learning framework (SSLF-GR), then simultaneously optimize the parameters and the ranking scores of graph nodes. Experiments on the real-world large-scale graphs demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms the algorithms that consider such graph information only partially.

The dialectical thinking about deterministic and probabilistic safety analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qian Yongbai; Tong Jiejuan; Zhang Zuoyi; He Xuhong

2005-01-01

There are two methods in designing and analysing the safety performance of a nuclear power plant, the traditional deterministic method and the probabilistic method. To date, the design of nuclear power plant is based on the deterministic method. It has been proved in practice that the deterministic method is effective on current nuclear power plant. However, the probabilistic method (Probabilistic Safety Assessment - PSA) considers a much wider range of faults, takes an integrated look at the plant as a whole, and uses realistic criteria for the performance of the systems and constructions of the plant. PSA can be seen, in principle, to provide a broader and realistic perspective on safety issues than the deterministic approaches. In this paper, the historical origins and development trend of above two methods are reviewed and summarized in brief. Based on the discussion of two application cases - one is the changes to specific design provisions of the general design criteria (GDC) and the other is the risk-informed categorization of structure, system and component, it can be concluded that the deterministic method and probabilistic method are dialectical and unified, and that they are being merged into each other gradually, and being used in coordination. (authors)

Rankings of Economics Faculties and Representation on Editorial Boards of Top Journals.

Science.gov (United States)

Gibbons, Jean D.; Fish, Mary

1991-01-01

Presents rankings of U.S., university, economics departments. Explains the rankings are based upon representation of the departments on the editorial boards of leading economics journals. Reports that results are similar to rankings based upon other criteria. (DK)

Comparative Case Studies on Indonesian Higher Education Rankings

Science.gov (United States)

Kurniasih, Nuning; Hasyim, C.; Wulandari, A.; Setiawan, M. I.; Ahmar, A. S.

2018-01-01

The quality of the higher education is the result of a continuous process. There are many indicators that can be used to assess the quality of a higher education. The existence of different indicators makes the different result of university rankings. This research aims to find variables that can connect ranking indicators that are used by Indonesian Ministry of Research, Technology, and Higher Education with indicators that are used by international rankings by taking two kind of ranking systems i.e. Webometrics and 4icu. This research uses qualitative research method with comparative case studies approach. The result of the research shows that to bridge the indicators that are used by Indonesian Ministry or Research, Technology, and Higher Education with web-based ranking system like Webometrics and 4icu so that the Indonesian higher education institutions need to open access towards either scientific or non-scientific that are publicly used into web-based environment. One of the strategies that can be used to improve the openness and access towards scientific work of a university is by involving in open science and collaboration.

Probabilistic Graph Layout for Uncertain Network Visualization.

Science.gov (United States)

Schulz, Christoph; Nocaj, Arlind; Goertler, Jochen; Deussen, Oliver; Brandes, Ulrik; Weiskopf, Daniel

2017-01-01

We present a novel uncertain network visualization technique based on node-link diagrams. Nodes expand spatially in our probabilistic graph layout, depending on the underlying probability distributions of edges. The visualization is created by computing a two-dimensional graph embedding that combines samples from the probabilistic graph. A Monte Carlo process is used to decompose a probabilistic graph into its possible instances and to continue with our graph layout technique. Splatting and edge bundling are used to visualize point clouds and network topology. The results provide insights into probability distributions for the entire network-not only for individual nodes and edges. We validate our approach using three data sets that represent a wide range of network types: synthetic data, protein-protein interactions from the STRING database, and travel times extracted from Google Maps. Our approach reveals general limitations of the force-directed layout and allows the user to recognize that some nodes of the graph are at a specific position just by chance.

Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to calibrate probabilistic surface temperature forecasts over Iran

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soltanzadeh, I. [Tehran Univ. (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Inst. of Geophysics; Azadi, M.; Vakili, G.A. [Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Center (ASMERC), Teheran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2011-07-01

Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), an attempt was made to obtain calibrated probabilistic numerical forecasts of 2-m temperature over Iran. The ensemble employs three limited area models (WRF, MM5 and HRM), with WRF used with five different configurations. Initial and boundary conditions for MM5 and WRF are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and for HRM the initial and boundary conditions come from analysis of Global Model Europe (GME) of the German Weather Service. The resulting ensemble of seven members was run for a period of 6 months (from December 2008 to May 2009) over Iran. The 48-h raw ensemble outputs were calibrated using BMA technique for 120 days using a 40 days training sample of forecasts and relative verification data. The calibrated probabilistic forecasts were assessed using rank histogram and attribute diagrams. Results showed that application of BMA improved the reliability of the raw ensemble. Using the weighted ensemble mean forecast as a deterministic forecast it was found that the deterministic-style BMA forecasts performed usually better than the best member's deterministic forecast. (orig.)

Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA to calibrate probabilistic surface temperature forecasts over Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Soltanzadeh

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA, an attempt was made to obtain calibrated probabilistic numerical forecasts of 2-m temperature over Iran. The ensemble employs three limited area models (WRF, MM5 and HRM, with WRF used with five different configurations. Initial and boundary conditions for MM5 and WRF are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS and for HRM the initial and boundary conditions come from analysis of Global Model Europe (GME of the German Weather Service. The resulting ensemble of seven members was run for a period of 6 months (from December 2008 to May 2009 over Iran. The 48-h raw ensemble outputs were calibrated using BMA technique for 120 days using a 40 days training sample of forecasts and relative verification data. The calibrated probabilistic forecasts were assessed using rank histogram and attribute diagrams. Results showed that application of BMA improved the reliability of the raw ensemble. Using the weighted ensemble mean forecast as a deterministic forecast it was found that the deterministic-style BMA forecasts performed usually better than the best member's deterministic forecast.

Some probabilistic aspects of fracture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, J.M.

1982-01-01

Some probabilistic aspects of fracture in structural and mechanical components are examined. The principles of fracture mechanics, material quality and inspection uncertainty are formulated into a conceptual and analytical framework for prediction of failure probability. The role of probabilistic fracture mechanics in a more global context of risk and optimization of decisions is illustrated. An example, where Monte Carlo simulation was used to implement a probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis, is discussed. (orig.)

OCA-P, PWR Vessel Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheverton, R.D.; Ball, D.G.

2001-01-01

1 - Description of program or function: OCA-P is a probabilistic fracture-mechanics code prepared specifically for evaluating the integrity of pressurized-water reactor vessels subjected to overcooling-accident loading conditions. Based on linear-elastic fracture mechanics, it has two- and limited three-dimensional flaw capability, and can treat cladding as a discrete region. Both deterministic and probabilistic analyses can be performed. For deterministic analysis, it is possible to conduct a search for critical values of the fluence and the nil-ductility reference temperature corresponding to incipient initiation of the initial flaw. The probabilistic portion of OCA-P is based on Monte Carlo techniques, and simulated parameters include fluence, flaw depth, fracture toughness, nil-ductility reference temperature, and concentrations of copper, nickel, and phosphorous. Plotting capabilities include the construction of critical-crack-depth diagrams (deterministic analysis) and a variety of histograms (probabilistic analysis). 2 - Method of solution: OAC-P accepts as input the reactor primary- system pressure and the reactor pressure-vessel downcomer coolant temperature, as functions of time in the specified transient. Then, the wall temperatures and stresses are calculated as a function of time and radial position in the wall, and the fracture-mechanics analysis is performed to obtain the stress intensity factors as a function of crack depth and time in the transient. In a deterministic analysis, values of the static crack initiation toughness and the crack arrest toughness are also calculated for all crack depths and times in the transient. A comparison of these values permits an evaluation of flaw behavior. For a probabilistic analysis, OCA-P generates a large number of reactor pressure vessels, each with a different combination of the various values of the parameters involved in the analysis of flaw behavior. For each of these vessels, a deterministic fracture

Microseismic Event Relocation and Focal Mechanism Estimation Based on PageRank Linkage

Science.gov (United States)

Aguiar, A. C.; Myers, S. C.

2017-12-01

Microseismicity associated with enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) is key in understanding how subsurface stimulation can modify stress, fracture rock, and increase permeability. Large numbers of microseismic events are commonly associated with hydroshearing an EGS, making data mining methods useful in their analysis. We focus on PageRank, originally developed as Google's search engine, and subsequently adapted for use in seismology to detect low-frequency earthquakes by linking events directly and indirectly through cross-correlation (Aguiar and Beroza, 2014). We expand on this application by using PageRank to define signal-correlation topology for micro-earthquakes from the Newberry Volcano EGS in Central Oregon, which has been stimulated two times using high-pressure fluid injection. We create PageRank signal families from both data sets and compare these to the spatial and temporal proximity of associated earthquakes. PageRank families are relocated using differential travel times measured by waveform cross-correlation (CC) and the Bayesloc approach (Myers et al., 2007). Prior to relocation events are loosely clustered with events at a distance from the cluster. After relocation, event families are found to be tightly clustered. Indirect linkage of signals using PageRank is a reliable way to increase the number of events confidently determined to be similar, suggesting an efficient and effective grouping of earthquakes with similar physical characteristics (ie. location, focal mechanism, stress drop). We further explore the possibility of using PageRank families to identify events with similar relative phase polarities and estimate focal mechanisms following Shelly et al. (2016) method, where CC measurements are used to determine individual polarities within event clusters. Given a positive result, PageRank might be a useful tool in adaptive approaches to enhance production at well-instrumented geothermal sites. Prepared by LLNL under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344

An Improved Fuzzy Based Missing Value Estimation in DNA Microarray Validated by Gene Ranking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sujay Saha

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Most of the gene expression data analysis algorithms require the entire gene expression matrix without any missing values. Hence, it is necessary to devise methods which would impute missing data values accurately. There exist a number of imputation algorithms to estimate those missing values. This work starts with a microarray dataset containing multiple missing values. We first apply the modified version of the fuzzy theory based existing method LRFDVImpute to impute multiple missing values of time series gene expression data and then validate the result of imputation by genetic algorithm (GA based gene ranking methodology along with some regular statistical validation techniques, like RMSE method. Gene ranking, as far as our knowledge, has not been used yet to validate the result of missing value estimation. Firstly, the proposed method has been tested on the very popular Spellman dataset and results show that error margins have been drastically reduced compared to some previous works, which indirectly validates the statistical significance of the proposed method. Then it has been applied on four other 2-class benchmark datasets, like Colorectal Cancer tumours dataset (GDS4382, Breast Cancer dataset (GSE349-350, Prostate Cancer dataset, and DLBCL-FL (Leukaemia for both missing value estimation and ranking the genes, and the results show that the proposed method can reach 100% classification accuracy with very few dominant genes, which indirectly validates the biological significance of the proposed method.

Can model weighting improve probabilistic projections of climate change?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Raeisaenen, Jouni; Ylhaeisi, Jussi S. [Department of Physics, P.O. Box 48, University of Helsinki (Finland)

2012-10-15

Recently, Raeisaenen and co-authors proposed a weighting scheme in which the relationship between observable climate and climate change within a multi-model ensemble determines to what extent agreement with observations affects model weights in climate change projection. Within the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) dataset, this scheme slightly improved the cross-validated accuracy of deterministic projections of temperature change. Here the same scheme is applied to probabilistic temperature change projection, under the strong limiting assumption that the CMIP3 ensemble spans the actual modeling uncertainty. Cross-validation suggests that probabilistic temperature change projections may also be improved by this weighting scheme. However, the improvement relative to uniform weighting is smaller in the tail-sensitive logarithmic score than in the continuous ranked probability score. The impact of the weighting on projection of real-world twenty-first century temperature change is modest in most parts of the world. However, in some areas mainly over the high-latitude oceans, the mean of the distribution is substantially changed and/or the distribution is considerably narrowed. The weights of individual models vary strongly with location, so that a model that receives nearly zero weight in some area may still get a large weight elsewhere. Although the details of this variation are method-specific, it suggests that the relative strengths of different models may be difficult to harness by weighting schemes that use spatially uniform model weights. (orig.)

Risk-Based Predictive Maintenance for Safety-Critical Systems by Using Probabilistic Inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tianhua Xu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Risk-based maintenance (RBM aims to improve maintenance planning and decision making by reducing the probability and consequences of failure of equipment. A new predictive maintenance strategy that integrates dynamic evolution model and risk assessment is proposed which can be used to calculate the optimal maintenance time with minimal cost and safety constraints. The dynamic evolution model provides qualified risks by using probabilistic inference with bucket elimination and gives the prospective degradation trend of a complex system. Based on the degradation trend, an optimal maintenance time can be determined by minimizing the expected maintenance cost per time unit. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated and demonstrated by a collision accident of high-speed trains with obstacles in the presence of safety and cost constrains.

Probabilistic Capacity of a Grid connected Wind Farm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhao, Menghua; Chen, Zhe; Blaabjerg, Frede

2005-01-01

This paper proposes a method to find the maximum acceptable wind power injection regarding the thermal limits, steady state stability limits and voltage limits of the grid system. The probabilistic wind power is introduced based on the probability distribution of wind speed. Based on Power Transfer...... Distribution Factor (PTDF) and voltage sensitivities, a predictor-corrector method is suggested to calculate the acceptable active power injection. Then this method is combined with the probabilistic model of wind power to compute the allowable capacity of the wind farm. Finally, an example is illustrated...... to test this method. It is concluded that proposed method in this paper is a feasible, fast, and accurate approach to find the size of a wind farm....

Probabilistic Output Analysis by Program Manipulation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosendahl, Mads; Kirkeby, Maja Hanne

2015-01-01

The aim of a probabilistic output analysis is to derive a probability distribution of possible output values for a program from a probability distribution of its input. We present a method for performing static output analysis, based on program transformation techniques. It generates a probability...

Ambient Surveillance by Probabilistic-Possibilistic Perception

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bittermann, M.S.; Ciftcioglu, O.

2013-01-01

A method for quantifying ambient surveillance is presented, which is based on probabilistic-possibilistic perception. The human surveillance of a scene through observing camera sensed images on a monitor is modeled in three steps. First immersion of the observer is simulated by modeling perception

An R package for analyzing and modeling ranking data.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Paul H; Yu, Philip L H

2013-05-14

In medical informatics, psychology, market research and many other fields, researchers often need to analyze and model ranking data. However, there is no statistical software that provides tools for the comprehensive analysis of ranking data. Here, we present pmr, an R package for analyzing and modeling ranking data with a bundle of tools. The pmr package enables descriptive statistics (mean rank, pairwise frequencies, and marginal matrix), Analytic Hierarchy Process models (with Saaty's and Koczkodaj's inconsistencies), probability models (Luce model, distance-based model, and rank-ordered logit model), and the visualization of ranking data with multidimensional preference analysis. Examples of the use of package pmr are given using a real ranking dataset from medical informatics, in which 566 Hong Kong physicians ranked the top five incentives (1: competitive pressures; 2: increased savings; 3: government regulation; 4: improved efficiency; 5: improved quality care; 6: patient demand; 7: financial incentives) to the computerization of clinical practice. The mean rank showed that item 4 is the most preferred item and item 3 is the least preferred item, and significance difference was found between physicians' preferences with respect to their monthly income. A multidimensional preference analysis identified two dimensions that explain 42% of the total variance. The first can be interpreted as the overall preference of the seven items (labeled as "internal/external"), and the second dimension can be interpreted as their overall variance of (labeled as "push/pull factors"). Various statistical models were fitted, and the best were found to be weighted distance-based models with Spearman's footrule distance. In this paper, we presented the R package pmr, the first package for analyzing and modeling ranking data. The package provides insight to users through descriptive statistics of ranking data. Users can also visualize ranking data by applying a thought

Formulation of probabilistic models of protein structure in atomic detail using the reference ratio method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Valentin, Jan B.; Andreetta, Christian; Boomsma, Wouter

2014-01-01

We propose a method to formulate probabilistic models of protein structure in atomic detail, for a given amino acid sequence, based on Bayesian principles, while retaining a close link to physics. We start from two previously developed probabilistic models of protein structure on a local length s....... The results indicate that the proposed method and the probabilistic models show considerable promise for probabilistic protein structure prediction and related applications. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc....

Quantum probabilistic logic programming

Science.gov (United States)

Balu, Radhakrishnan

2015-05-01

We describe a quantum mechanics based logic programming language that supports Horn clauses, random variables, and covariance matrices to express and solve problems in probabilistic logic. The Horn clauses of the language wrap random variables, including infinite valued, to express probability distributions and statistical correlations, a powerful feature to capture relationship between distributions that are not independent. The expressive power of the language is based on a mechanism to implement statistical ensembles and to solve the underlying SAT instances using quantum mechanical machinery. We exploit the fact that classical random variables have quantum decompositions to build the Horn clauses. We establish the semantics of the language in a rigorous fashion by considering an existing probabilistic logic language called PRISM with classical probability measures defined on the Herbrand base and extending it to the quantum context. In the classical case H-interpretations form the sample space and probability measures defined on them lead to consistent definition of probabilities for well formed formulae. In the quantum counterpart, we define probability amplitudes on Hinterpretations facilitating the model generations and verifications via quantum mechanical superpositions and entanglements. We cast the well formed formulae of the language as quantum mechanical observables thus providing an elegant interpretation for their probabilities. We discuss several examples to combine statistical ensembles and predicates of first order logic to reason with situations involving uncertainty.

Characteristics of the evolution of cooperation by the probabilistic peer-punishment based on the difference of payoff

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohdaira, Tetsushi

2017-01-01

Highlights: • The probabilistic peer-punishment based on the difference of payoff is introduced. • The characteristics of the evolution of cooperation are studied. • Those characteristics present the significant contribution to knowledge. - Abstract: Regarding costly punishment of two types, especially peer-punishment is considered to decrease the average payoff of all players as well as pool-punishment does, and to facilitate the antisocial punishment as a result of natural selection. To solve those problems, the author has proposed the probabilistic peer-punishment based on the difference of payoff. In the limited condition, the proposed peer-punishment has shown the positive effects on the evolution of cooperation, and increased the average payoff of all players. Based on those findings, this study exhibits the characteristics of the evolution of cooperation by the proposed peer-punishment. Those characteristics present the significant contribution to knowledge that for the evolution of cooperation, a limited number of players should cause severe damage to defectors at the large expense of their payoff when connections between them are sparse, whereas a greater number of players should share the responsibility to punish defectors at the relatively small expense of their payoff when connections between them are dense.

Probabilistic predictive modelling of carbon nanocomposites for medical implants design.

Science.gov (United States)

Chua, Matthew; Chui, Chee-Kong

2015-04-01

Modelling of the mechanical properties of carbon nanocomposites based on input variables like percentage weight of Carbon Nanotubes (CNT) inclusions is important for the design of medical implants and other structural scaffolds. Current constitutive models for the mechanical properties of nanocomposites may not predict well due to differences in conditions, fabrication techniques and inconsistencies in reagents properties used across industries and laboratories. Furthermore, the mechanical properties of the designed products are not deterministic, but exist as a probabilistic range. A predictive model based on a modified probabilistic surface response algorithm is proposed in this paper to address this issue. Tensile testing of three groups of different CNT weight fractions of carbon nanocomposite samples displays scattered stress-strain curves, with the instantaneous stresses assumed to vary according to a normal distribution at a specific strain. From the probabilistic density function of the experimental data, a two factors Central Composite Design (CCD) experimental matrix based on strain and CNT weight fraction input with their corresponding stress distribution was established. Monte Carlo simulation was carried out on this design matrix to generate a predictive probabilistic polynomial equation. The equation and method was subsequently validated with more tensile experiments and Finite Element (FE) studies. The method was subsequently demonstrated in the design of an artificial tracheal implant. Our algorithm provides an effective way to accurately model the mechanical properties in implants of various compositions based on experimental data of samples. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ranking health between countries in international comparisons

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

2014-01-01

Cross-national comparisons and ranking of summary measures of population health sometimes give rise to inconsistent and diverging conclusions. In order to minimise confusion, international comparative studies ought to be based on well-harmonised data with common standards of definitions and docum......Cross-national comparisons and ranking of summary measures of population health sometimes give rise to inconsistent and diverging conclusions. In order to minimise confusion, international comparative studies ought to be based on well-harmonised data with common standards of definitions...

Multiatlas whole heart segmentation of CT data using conditional entropy for atlas ranking and selection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhuang, Xiahai, E-mail: zhuangxiahai@sjtu.edu.cn; Qian, Xiaohua [SJTU-CU International Cooperative Research Center, Department of Engineering Mechanics, School of Naval Architecture Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240 (China); Bai, Wenjia; Shi, Wenzhe; Rueckert, Daniel [Biomedical Image Analysis Group, Department of Computing, Imperial College London, 180 Queens Gate, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Song, Jingjing; Zhan, Songhua [Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai 201203 (China); Lian, Yanyun [Shanghai Advanced Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 201210 (China)

2015-07-15

Purpose: Cardiac computed tomography (CT) is widely used in clinical diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases. Whole heart segmentation (WHS) plays a vital role in developing new clinical applications of cardiac CT. However, the shape and appearance of the heart can vary greatly across different scans, making the automatic segmentation particularly challenging. The objective of this work is to develop and evaluate a multiatlas segmentation (MAS) scheme using a new atlas ranking and selection algorithm for automatic WHS of CT data. Research on different MAS strategies and their influence on WHS performance are limited. This work provides a detailed comparison study evaluating the impacts of label fusion, atlas ranking, and sizes of the atlas database on the segmentation performance. Methods: Atlases in a database were registered to the target image using a hierarchical registration scheme specifically designed for cardiac images. A subset of the atlases were selected for label fusion, according to the authors’ proposed atlas ranking criterion which evaluated the performance of each atlas by computing the conditional entropy of the target image given the propagated atlas labeling. Joint label fusion was used to combine multiple label estimates to obtain the final segmentation. The authors used 30 clinical cardiac CT angiography (CTA) images to evaluate the proposed MAS scheme and to investigate different segmentation strategies. Results: The mean WHS Dice score of the proposed MAS method was 0.918 ± 0.021, and the mean runtime for one case was 13.2 min on a workstation. This MAS scheme using joint label fusion generated significantly better Dice scores than the other label fusion strategies, including majority voting (0.901 ± 0.276, p < 0.01), locally weighted voting (0.905 ± 0.0247, p < 0.01), and probabilistic patch-based fusion (0.909 ± 0.0249, p < 0.01). In the atlas ranking study, the proposed criterion based on conditional entropy yielded a performance curve

Podium: Ranking Data Using Mixed-Initiative Visual Analytics.

Science.gov (United States)

Wall, Emily; Das, Subhajit; Chawla, Ravish; Kalidindi, Bharath; Brown, Eli T; Endert, Alex

2018-01-01

People often rank and order data points as a vital part of making decisions. Multi-attribute ranking systems are a common tool used to make these data-driven decisions. Such systems often take the form of a table-based visualization in which users assign weights to the attributes representing the quantifiable importance of each attribute to a decision, which the system then uses to compute a ranking of the data. However, these systems assume that users are able to quantify their conceptual understanding of how important particular attributes are to a decision. This is not always easy or even possible for users to do. Rather, people often have a more holistic understanding of the data. They form opinions that data point A is better than data point B but do not necessarily know which attributes are important. To address these challenges, we present a visual analytic application to help people rank multi-variate data points. We developed a prototype system, Podium, that allows users to drag rows in the table to rank order data points based on their perception of the relative value of the data. Podium then infers a weighting model using Ranking SVM that satisfies the user's data preferences as closely as possible. Whereas past systems help users understand the relationships between data points based on changes to attribute weights, our approach helps users to understand the attributes that might inform their understanding of the data. We present two usage scenarios to describe some of the potential uses of our proposed technique: (1) understanding which attributes contribute to a user's subjective preferences for data, and (2) deconstructing attributes of importance for existing rankings. Our proposed approach makes powerful machine learning techniques more usable to those who may not have expertise in these areas.

Probabilistic methods used in NUSS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, J.; Giuliani, P.

1985-01-01

Probabilistic considerations are used implicitly or explicitly in all technical areas. In the NUSS codes and guides the two areas of design and siting are those where more use is made of these concepts. A brief review of the relevant documents in these two areas is made in this paper. It covers the documents where either probabilistic considerations are implied or where probabilistic approaches are recommended in the evaluation of situations and of events. In the siting guides the review mainly covers the area of seismic hydrological and external man-made events analysis, as well as some aspects of meteorological extreme events analysis. Probabilistic methods are recommended in the design guides but they are not made a requirement. There are several reasons for this, mainly lack of reliable data and the absence of quantitative safety limits or goals against which to judge the design analysis. As far as practical, engineering judgement should be backed up by quantitative probabilistic analysis. Examples are given and the concept of design basis as used in NUSS design guides is explained. (author)

A Probabilistic Design Methodology for a Turboshaft Engine Overall Performance Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Min Chen

2014-05-01

Full Text Available In reality, the cumulative effect of the many uncertainties in engine component performance may stack up to affect the engine overall performance. This paper aims to quantify the impact of uncertainty in engine component performance on the overall performance of a turboshaft engine based on Monte-Carlo probabilistic design method. A novel probabilistic model of turboshaft engine, consisting of a Monte-Carlo simulation generator, a traditional nonlinear turboshaft engine model, and a probability statistical model, was implemented to predict this impact. One of the fundamental results shown herein is that uncertainty in component performance has a significant impact on the engine overall performance prediction. This paper also shows that, taking into consideration the uncertainties in component performance, the turbine entry temperature and overall pressure ratio based on the probabilistic design method should increase by 0.76% and 8.33%, respectively, compared with the ones of deterministic design method. The comparison shows that the probabilistic approach provides a more credible and reliable way to assign the design space for a target engine overall performance.

Probabilistic thinking to support early evaluation of system quality: through requirement analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rajabali Nejad, Mohammadreza; Bonnema, Gerrit Maarten

2014-01-01

This paper focuses on coping with system quality in the early phases of design where there is lack of knowledge about a system, its functions or its architect. The paper encourages knowledge based evaluation of system quality and promotes probabilistic thinking. It states that probabilistic thinking

Probabilistic and sensitivity analysis of Botlek Bridge structures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Králik Juraj

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with the probabilistic and sensitivity analysis of the largest movable lift bridge of the world. The bridge system consists of six reinforced concrete pylons and two steel decks 4000 tons weight each connected through ropes with counterweights. The paper focuses the probabilistic and sensitivity analysis as the base of dynamic study in design process of the bridge. The results had a high importance for practical application and design of the bridge. The model and resistance uncertainties were taken into account in LHS simulation method.

Rank diversity of languages: generic behavior in computational linguistics.

Science.gov (United States)

Cocho, Germinal; Flores, Jorge; Gershenson, Carlos; Pineda, Carlos; Sánchez, Sergio

2015-01-01

Statistical studies of languages have focused on the rank-frequency distribution of words. Instead, we introduce here a measure of how word ranks change in time and call this distribution rank diversity. We calculate this diversity for books published in six European languages since 1800, and find that it follows a universal lognormal distribution. Based on the mean and standard deviation associated with the lognormal distribution, we define three different word regimes of languages: "heads" consist of words which almost do not change their rank in time, "bodies" are words of general use, while "tails" are comprised by context-specific words and vary their rank considerably in time. The heads and bodies reflect the size of language cores identified by linguists for basic communication. We propose a Gaussian random walk model which reproduces the rank variation of words in time and thus the diversity. Rank diversity of words can be understood as the result of random variations in rank, where the size of the variation depends on the rank itself. We find that the core size is similar for all languages studied.

Augmenting the Deliberative Method for Ranking Risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Susel, Irving; Lasley, Trace; Montezemolo, Mark; Piper, Joel

2016-01-01

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) characterized and prioritized the physical cross-border threats and hazards to the nation stemming from terrorism, market-driven illicit flows of people and goods (illegal immigration, narcotics, funds, counterfeits, and weaponry), and other nonmarket concerns (movement of diseases, pests, and invasive species). These threats and hazards pose a wide diversity of consequences with very different combinations of magnitudes and likelihoods, making it very challenging to prioritize them. This article presents the approach that was used at DHS to arrive at a consensus regarding the threats and hazards that stand out from the rest based on the overall risk they pose. Due to time constraints for the decision analysis, it was not feasible to apply multiattribute methodologies like multiattribute utility theory or the analytic hierarchy process. Using a holistic approach was considered, such as the deliberative method for ranking risks first published in this journal. However, an ordinal ranking alone does not indicate relative or absolute magnitude differences among the risks. Therefore, the use of the deliberative method for ranking risks is not sufficient for deciding whether there is a material difference between the top-ranked and bottom-ranked risks, let alone deciding what the stand-out risks are. To address this limitation of ordinal rankings, the deliberative method for ranking risks was augmented by adding an additional step to transform the ordinal ranking into a ratio scale ranking. This additional step enabled the selection of stand-out risks to help prioritize further analysis. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Scalable Faceted Ranking in Tagging Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Orlicki, José I.; Alvarez-Hamelin, J. Ignacio; Fierens, Pablo I.

Nowadays, web collaborative tagging systems which allow users to upload, comment on and recommend contents, are growing. Such systems can be represented as graphs where nodes correspond to users and tagged-links to recommendations. In this paper we analyze the problem of computing a ranking of users with respect to a facet described as a set of tags. A straightforward solution is to compute a PageRank-like algorithm on a facet-related graph, but it is not feasible for online computation. We propose an alternative: (i) a ranking for each tag is computed offline on the basis of tag-related subgraphs; (ii) a faceted order is generated online by merging rankings corresponding to all the tags in the facet. Based on the graph analysis of YouTube and Flickr, we show that step (i) is scalable. We also present efficient algorithms for step (ii), which are evaluated by comparing their results with two gold standards.

Constant Jacobian Matrix-Based Stochastic Galerkin Method for Probabilistic Load Flow

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yingyun Sun

2016-03-01

Full Text Available An intrusive spectral method of probabilistic load flow (PLF is proposed in the paper, which can handle the uncertainties arising from renewable energy integration. Generalized polynomial chaos (gPC expansions of dependent random variables are utilized to build a spectral stochastic representation of PLF model. Instead of solving the coupled PLF model with a traditional, cumbersome method, a modified stochastic Galerkin (SG method is proposed based on the P-Q decoupling properties of load flow in power system. By introducing two pre-calculated constant sparse Jacobian matrices, the computational burden of the SG method is significantly reduced. Two cases, IEEE 14-bus and IEEE 118-bus systems, are used to verify the computation speed and efficiency of the proposed method.

VaRank: a simple and powerful tool for ranking genetic variants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Véronique Geoffroy

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Background. Most genetic disorders are caused by single nucleotide variations (SNVs or small insertion/deletions (indels. High throughput sequencing has broadened the catalogue of human variation, including common polymorphisms, rare variations or disease causing mutations. However, identifying one variation among hundreds or thousands of others is still a complex task for biologists, geneticists and clinicians.Results. We have developed VaRank, a command-line tool for the ranking of genetic variants detected by high-throughput sequencing. VaRank scores and prioritizes variants annotated either by Alamut Batch or SnpEff. A barcode allows users to quickly view the presence/absence of variants (with homozygote/heterozygote status in analyzed samples. VaRank supports the commonly used VCF input format for variants analysis thus allowing it to be easily integrated into NGS bioinformatics analysis pipelines. VaRank has been successfully applied to disease-gene identification as well as to molecular diagnostics setup for several hundred patients.Conclusions. VaRank is implemented in Tcl/Tk, a scripting language which is platform-independent but has been tested only on Unix environment. The source code is available under the GNU GPL, and together with sample data and detailed documentation can be downloaded from http://www.lbgi.fr/VaRank/.

Ranking production units according to marginal efficiency contribution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ghiyasi, Mojtaba; Hougaard, Jens Leth

League tables associated with various forms of service activities from schools to hospitals illustrate the public need for ranking institutions by their productive performance. We present a new method for ranking production units which is based on each units marginal contribution to the technical...

Sparse structure regularized ranking

KAUST Repository

Wang, Jim Jing-Yan

2014-04-17

Learning ranking scores is critical for the multimedia database retrieval problem. In this paper, we propose a novel ranking score learning algorithm by exploring the sparse structure and using it to regularize ranking scores. To explore the sparse structure, we assume that each multimedia object could be represented as a sparse linear combination of all other objects, and combination coefficients are regarded as a similarity measure between objects and used to regularize their ranking scores. Moreover, we propose to learn the sparse combination coefficients and the ranking scores simultaneously. A unified objective function is constructed with regard to both the combination coefficients and the ranking scores, and is optimized by an iterative algorithm. Experiments on two multimedia database retrieval data sets demonstrate the significant improvements of the propose algorithm over state-of-the-art ranking score learning algorithms.

Probabilistic Resource Analysis by Program Transformation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kirkeby, Maja Hanne; Rosendahl, Mads

2016-01-01

The aim of a probabilistic resource analysis is to derive a probability distribution of possible resource usage for a program from a probability distribution of its input. We present an automated multi-phase rewriting based method to analyze programs written in a subset of C. It generates...

Probabilistic and deterministic soil structure interaction analysis including ground motion incoherency effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elkhoraibi, T.; Hashemi, A.; Ostadan, F.

2014-01-01

Soil-structure interaction (SSI) is a major step for seismic design of massive and stiff structures typical of the nuclear facilities and civil infrastructures such as tunnels, underground stations, dams and lock head structures. Currently most SSI analyses are performed deterministically, incorporating limited range of variation in soil and structural properties and without consideration of the ground motion incoherency effects. This often leads to overestimation of the seismic response particularly the In-Structure-Response Spectra (ISRS) with significant impositions of design and equipment qualification costs, especially in the case of high-frequency sensitive equipment at stiff soil or rock sites. The reluctance to incorporate a more comprehensive probabilistic approach is mainly due to the fact that the computational cost of performing probabilistic SSI analysis even without incoherency function considerations has been prohibitive. As such, bounding deterministic approaches have been preferred by the industry and accepted by the regulatory agencies. However, given the recently available and growing computing capabilities, the need for a probabilistic-based approach to the SSI analysis is becoming clear with the advances in performance-based engineering and the utilization of fragility analysis in the decision making process whether by the owners or the regulatory agencies. This paper demonstrates the use of both probabilistic and deterministic SSI analysis techniques to identify important engineering demand parameters in the structure. A typical nuclear industry structure is used as an example for this study. The system is analyzed for two different site conditions: rock and deep soil. Both deterministic and probabilistic SSI analysis approaches are performed, using the program SASSI, with and without ground motion incoherency considerations. In both approaches, the analysis begins at the hard rock level using the low frequency and high frequency hard rock

Probabilistic and deterministic soil structure interaction analysis including ground motion incoherency effects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elkhoraibi, T., E-mail: telkhora@bechtel.com; Hashemi, A.; Ostadan, F.

2014-04-01

Soil-structure interaction (SSI) is a major step for seismic design of massive and stiff structures typical of the nuclear facilities and civil infrastructures such as tunnels, underground stations, dams and lock head structures. Currently most SSI analyses are performed deterministically, incorporating limited range of variation in soil and structural properties and without consideration of the ground motion incoherency effects. This often leads to overestimation of the seismic response particularly the In-Structure-Response Spectra (ISRS) with significant impositions of design and equipment qualification costs, especially in the case of high-frequency sensitive equipment at stiff soil or rock sites. The reluctance to incorporate a more comprehensive probabilistic approach is mainly due to the fact that the computational cost of performing probabilistic SSI analysis even without incoherency function considerations has been prohibitive. As such, bounding deterministic approaches have been preferred by the industry and accepted by the regulatory agencies. However, given the recently available and growing computing capabilities, the need for a probabilistic-based approach to the SSI analysis is becoming clear with the advances in performance-based engineering and the utilization of fragility analysis in the decision making process whether by the owners or the regulatory agencies. This paper demonstrates the use of both probabilistic and deterministic SSI analysis techniques to identify important engineering demand parameters in the structure. A typical nuclear industry structure is used as an example for this study. The system is analyzed for two different site conditions: rock and deep soil. Both deterministic and probabilistic SSI analysis approaches are performed, using the program SASSI, with and without ground motion incoherency considerations. In both approaches, the analysis begins at the hard rock level using the low frequency and high frequency hard rock

Nanotechnology strength indicators: international rankings based on US patents

Science.gov (United States)

Marinova, Dora; McAleer, Michael

2003-01-01

Technological strength indicators (TSIs) based on patent statistics for 1975-2000 are used to analyse patenting of nanotechnology in the USA, and to compile international rankings for the top 12 foreign patenting countries (namely Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Korea, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and Taiwan). As the indicators are not directly observable, various proxy variables are used, namely the technological specialization index for national priorities, patent shares for international presence, citation rate for the contribution of patents to knowledge development and rate of assigned patents for potential commercial benefits. The best performing country is France, followed by Japan and Canada. It is shown that expertise and strength in nanotechnology are not evenly distributed among the technologically advanced countries, with the TSIs revealing different emphases in the development of nanotechnology.

Probabilistic simulation applications to reliability assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, Ian; Nutt, Mark W.; Hill, Ralph S. III

2003-01-01

Probabilistic risk/reliability (PRA) analyses for engineered systems are conventionally based on fault-tree methods. These methods are mature and efficient, and are well suited to systems consisting of interacting components with known, low probabilities of failure. Even complex systems, such as nuclear power plants or aircraft, are modeled by the careful application of these approaches. However, for systems that may evolve in complex and nonlinear ways, and where the performance of components may be a sensitive function of the history of their working environments, fault-tree methods can be very demanding. This paper proposes an alternative method of evaluating such systems, based on probabilistic simulation using intelligent software objects to represent the components of such systems. Using a Monte Carlo approach, simulation models can be constructed from relatively simple interacting objects that capture the essential behavior of the components that they represent. Such models are capable of reflecting the complex behaviors of the systems that they represent in a natural and realistic way. (author)

Evaluation of Probabilistic Disease Forecasts.

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, Gareth; Burnett, Fiona J

2017-10-01

The statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts often involves calculation of metrics defined conditionally on disease status, such as sensitivity and specificity. However, for the purpose of disease management decision making, metrics defined conditionally on the result of the forecast-predictive values-are also important, although less frequently reported. In this context, the application of scoring rules in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts is discussed. An index of separation with application in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts, described in the clinical literature, is also considered and its relation to scoring rules illustrated. Scoring rules provide a principled basis for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts used in plant disease management. In particular, the decomposition of scoring rules into interpretable components is an advantageous feature of their application in the evaluation of disease forecasts.

Fuzzy-probabilistic multi agent system for breast cancer risk assessment and insurance premium assignment.

Science.gov (United States)

Tatari, Farzaneh; Akbarzadeh-T, Mohammad-R; Sabahi, Ahmad

2012-12-01

In this paper, we present an agent-based system for distributed risk assessment of breast cancer development employing fuzzy and probabilistic computing. The proposed fuzzy multi agent system consists of multiple fuzzy agents that benefit from fuzzy set theory to demonstrate their soft information (linguistic information). Fuzzy risk assessment is quantified by two linguistic variables of high and low. Through fuzzy computations, the multi agent system computes the fuzzy probabilities of breast cancer development based on various risk factors. By such ranking of high risk and low risk fuzzy probabilities, the multi agent system (MAS) decides whether the risk of breast cancer development is high or low. This information is then fed into an insurance premium adjuster in order to provide preventive decision making as well as to make appropriate adjustment of insurance premium and risk. This final step of insurance analysis also provides a numeric measure to demonstrate the utility of the approach. Furthermore, actual data are gathered from two hospitals in Mashhad during 1 year. The results are then compared with a fuzzy distributed approach. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A web-based tool for ranking landslide mitigation measures

Science.gov (United States)

Lacasse, S.; Vaciago, G.; Choi, Y. J.; Kalsnes, B.

2012-04-01

brief description, guidance on design, schematic details, practical examples and references for each mitigation measure. Each of the measures was given a score on its ability and applicability for different types of landslides and boundary conditions, and a decision support matrix was established. The web-based toolbox organizes the information in the compendium and provides an algorithm to rank the measures on the basis of the decision support matrix, and on the basis of the risk level estimated at the site. The toolbox includes a description of the case under study and offers a simplified option for estimating the hazard and risk levels of the slide at hand. The user selects the mitigation measures to be included in the assessment. The toolbox then ranks, with built-in assessment factors and weights and/or with user-defined ranking values and criteria, the mitigation measures included in the analysis. The toolbox includes data management, e.g. saving data half-way in an analysis, returning to an earlier case, looking up prepared examples or looking up information on mitigation measures. The toolbox also generates a report and has user-forum and help features. The presentation will give an overview of the mitigation measures considered and examples of the use of the toolbox, and will take the attendees through the application of the toolbox.

Low-rank coal research

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weber, G. F.; Laudal, D. L.

1989-01-01

This work is a compilation of reports on ongoing research at the University of North Dakota. Topics include: Control Technology and Coal Preparation Research (SO{sub x}/NO{sub x} control, waste management), Advanced Research and Technology Development (turbine combustion phenomena, combustion inorganic transformation, coal/char reactivity, liquefaction reactivity of low-rank coals, gasification ash and slag characterization, fine particulate emissions), Combustion Research (fluidized bed combustion, beneficiation of low-rank coals, combustion characterization of low-rank coal fuels, diesel utilization of low-rank coals), Liquefaction Research (low-rank coal direct liquefaction), and Gasification Research (hydrogen production from low-rank coals, advanced wastewater treatment, mild gasification, color and residual COD removal from Synfuel wastewaters, Great Plains Gasification Plant, gasifier optimization).

An Improved Approach to the PageRank Problems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yue Xie

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We introduce a partition of the web pages particularly suited to the PageRank problems in which the web link graph has a nested block structure. Based on the partition of the web pages, dangling nodes, common nodes, and general nodes, the hyperlink matrix can be reordered to be a more simple block structure. Then based on the parallel computation method, we propose an algorithm for the PageRank problems. In this algorithm, the dimension of the linear system becomes smaller, and the vector for general nodes in each block can be calculated separately in every iteration. Numerical experiments show that this approach speeds up the computation of PageRank.

A comparison of average-based, percentile rank, and other citation impact indicators

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruiz-Castillo, J.; Albarran, P.

2016-07-01

The main aim of this paper is to defend the view that, in spite of the broad agreement in favor of the MNCS and the percentile rank indicators, there are two other citation indicators with desirable properties that the above indicators do not posses: (i) a member of the family of high-impact indicators introduced in Albarránet al. (2011), and (ii) a new indicator, based in the work of Herrero & Villar (2013), which measures the relative performance of the different research units in terms of a series of tournaments in which each research unit is confronted with all others repeatedly. We compare indicators from the point of view of their discriminatory power, measured by the range and the coefficient of variation. Using a large dataset indexed by Thomson Reuters, we consider 40 countries that have published at least 10,000 articles in all sciences in 1998-2003. There are two main findings. First, the new indicator exhibits a greater discriminatory power than percentile rank indicators. Second, the high-impact indicator exhibits the greatest discriminatory power. (Author)

Probabilistic Fatigue Life Updating for Railway Bridges Based on Local Inspection and Repair.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Young-Joo; Kim, Robin E; Suh, Wonho; Park, Kiwon

2017-04-24

Railway bridges are exposed to repeated train loads, which may cause fatigue failure. As critical links in a transportation network, railway bridges are expected to survive for a target period of time, but sometimes they fail earlier than expected. To guarantee the target bridge life, bridge maintenance activities such as local inspection and repair should be undertaken properly. However, this is a challenging task because there are various sources of uncertainty associated with aging bridges, train loads, environmental conditions, and maintenance work. Therefore, to perform optimal risk-based maintenance of railway bridges, it is essential to estimate the probabilistic fatigue life of a railway bridge and update the life information based on the results of local inspections and repair. Recently, a system reliability approach was proposed to evaluate the fatigue failure risk of structural systems and update the prior risk information in various inspection scenarios. However, this approach can handle only a constant-amplitude load and has limitations in considering a cyclic load with varying amplitude levels, which is the major loading pattern generated by train traffic. In addition, it is not feasible to update the prior risk information after bridges are repaired. In this research, the system reliability approach is further developed so that it can handle a varying-amplitude load and update the system-level risk of fatigue failure for railway bridges after inspection and repair. The proposed method is applied to a numerical example of an in-service railway bridge, and the effects of inspection and repair on the probabilistic fatigue life are discussed.

Integration of Advanced Probabilistic Analysis Techniques with Multi-Physics Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cetiner, Mustafa Sacit; none,; Flanagan, George F. [ORNL; Poore III, Willis P. [ORNL; Muhlheim, Michael David [ORNL

2014-07-30

An integrated simulation platform that couples probabilistic analysis-based tools with model-based simulation tools can provide valuable insights for reactive and proactive responses to plant operating conditions. The objective of this work is to demonstrate the benefits of a partial implementation of the Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Detailed Framework Specification through the coupling of advanced PRA capabilities and accurate multi-physics plant models. Coupling a probabilistic model with a multi-physics model will aid in design, operations, and safety by providing a more accurate understanding of plant behavior. This represents the first attempt at actually integrating these two types of analyses for a control system used for operations, on a faster than real-time basis. This report documents the development of the basic communication capability to exchange data with the probabilistic model using Reliability Workbench (RWB) and the multi-physics model using Dymola. The communication pathways from injecting a fault (i.e., failing a component) to the probabilistic and multi-physics models were successfully completed. This first version was tested with prototypic models represented in both RWB and Modelica. First, a simple event tree/fault tree (ET/FT) model was created to develop the software code to implement the communication capabilities between the dynamic-link library (dll) and RWB. A program, written in C#, successfully communicates faults to the probabilistic model through the dll. A systems model of the Advanced Liquid-Metal Reactor–Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module (ALMR-PRISM) design developed under another DOE project was upgraded using Dymola to include proper interfaces to allow data exchange with the control application (ConApp). A program, written in C+, successfully communicates faults to the multi-physics model. The results of the example simulation were successfully plotted.

Probabilistic Models for Solar Particle Events

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, James H., Jr.; Dietrich, W. F.; Xapsos, M. A.; Welton, A. M.

2009-01-01

Probabilistic Models of Solar Particle Events (SPEs) are used in space mission design studies to provide a description of the worst-case radiation environment that the mission must be designed to tolerate.The models determine the worst-case environment using a description of the mission and a user-specified confidence level that the provided environment will not be exceeded. This poster will focus on completing the existing suite of models by developing models for peak flux and event-integrated fluence elemental spectra for the Z>2 elements. It will also discuss methods to take into account uncertainties in the data base and the uncertainties resulting from the limited number of solar particle events in the database. These new probabilistic models are based on an extensive survey of SPE measurements of peak and event-integrated elemental differential energy spectra. Attempts are made to fit the measured spectra with eight different published models. The model giving the best fit to each spectrum is chosen and used to represent that spectrum for any energy in the energy range covered by the measurements. The set of all such spectral representations for each element is then used to determine the worst case spectrum as a function of confidence level. The spectral representation that best fits these worst case spectra is found and its dependence on confidence level is parameterized. This procedure creates probabilistic models for the peak and event-integrated spectra.

Probabilistic design framework for sustainable repari and rehabilitation of civil infrastructure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lepech, Michael; Geiker, Mette Rica; Stang, Henrik

2011-01-01

This paper presents a probabilistic-based framework for the design of civil infrastructure repair and rehabilitation to achieve targeted improvements in sustainability indicators. The framework consists of two types of models: (i) service life prediction models combining one or several deteriorat......This paper presents a probabilistic-based framework for the design of civil infrastructure repair and rehabilitation to achieve targeted improvements in sustainability indicators. The framework consists of two types of models: (i) service life prediction models combining one or several...

PageRank (II): Mathematics

African Journals Online (AJOL)

maths/stats

... GAUSS SEIDEL'S. NUMERICAL ALGORITHMS IN PAGE RANK ANALYSIS. ... The convergence is guaranteed, if the absolute value of the largest eigen ... improved Gauss-Seidel iteration algorithm, based on the decomposition. U. L. D. M. +. +. = ..... This corresponds to determine the eigen vector of T with eigen value 1.

Probabilistic Tractography of the Cranial Nerves in Vestibular Schwannoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Zolal, Amir; Juratli, Tareq A; Podlesek, Dino; Rieger, Bernhard; Kitzler, Hagen H; Linn, Jennifer; Schackert, Gabriele; Sobottka, Stephan B

2017-11-01

Multiple recent studies have reported on diffusion tensor-based fiber tracking of cranial nerves in vestibular schwannoma, with conflicting results as to the accuracy of the method and the occurrence of cochlear nerve depiction. Probabilistic nontensor-based tractography might offer advantages in terms of better extraction of directional information from the underlying data in cranial nerves, which are of subvoxel size. Twenty-one patients with large vestibular schwannomas were recruited. The probabilistic tracking was run preoperatively and the position of the potential depictions of the facial and cochlear nerves was estimated postoperatively by 3 independent observers in a blinded fashion. The true position of the nerve was determined intraoperatively by the surgeon. Thereafter, the imaging-based estimated position was compared with the intraoperatively determined position. Tumor size, cystic appearance, and postoperative House-Brackmann score were analyzed with regard to the accuracy of the depiction of the nerves. The probabilistic tracking showed a connection that correlated to the position of the facial nerve in 81% of the cases and to the position of the cochlear nerve in 33% of the cases. Altogether, the resulting depiction did not correspond to the intraoperative position of any of the nerves in 3 cases. In a majority of cases, the position of the facial nerve, but not of the cochlear nerve, could be estimated by evaluation of the probabilistic tracking results. However, false depictions not corresponding to any nerve do occur and cannot be discerned as such from the image only. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A rank-based sequence aligner with applications in phylogenetic analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liviu P Dinu

Full Text Available Recent tools for aligning short DNA reads have been designed to optimize the trade-off between correctness and speed. This paper introduces a method for assigning a set of short DNA reads to a reference genome, under Local Rank Distance (LRD. The rank-based aligner proposed in this work aims to improve correctness over speed. However, some indexing strategies to speed up the aligner are also investigated. The LRD aligner is improved in terms of speed by storing [Formula: see text]-mer positions in a hash table for each read. Another improvement, that produces an approximate LRD aligner, is to consider only the positions in the reference that are likely to represent a good positional match of the read. The proposed aligner is evaluated and compared to other state of the art alignment tools in several experiments. A set of experiments are conducted to determine the precision and the recall of the proposed aligner, in the presence of contaminated reads. In another set of experiments, the proposed aligner is used to find the order, the family, or the species of a new (or unknown organism, given only a set of short Next-Generation Sequencing DNA reads. The empirical results show that the aligner proposed in this work is highly accurate from a biological point of view. Compared to the other evaluated tools, the LRD aligner has the important advantage of being very accurate even for a very low base coverage. Thus, the LRD aligner can be considered as a good alternative to standard alignment tools, especially when the accuracy of the aligner is of high importance. Source code and UNIX binaries of the aligner are freely available for future development and use at http://lrd.herokuapp.com/aligners. The software is implemented in C++ and Java, being supported on UNIX and MS Windows.

Low-rank extremal positive-partial-transpose states and unextendible product bases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leinaas, Jon Magne; Sollid, Per Oyvind; Myrheim, Jan

2010-01-01

It is known how to construct, in a bipartite quantum system, a unique low-rank entangled mixed state with positive partial transpose (a PPT state) from an unextendible product basis (UPB), defined as an unextendible set of orthogonal product vectors. We point out that a state constructed in this way belongs to a continuous family of entangled PPT states of the same rank, all related by nonsingular unitary or nonunitary product transformations. The characteristic property of a state ρ in such a family is that its kernel Ker ρ has a generalized UPB, a basis of product vectors, not necessarily orthogonal, with no product vector in Im ρ, the orthogonal complement of Ker ρ. The generalized UPB in Ker ρ has the special property that it can be transformed to orthogonal form by a product transformation. In the case of a system of dimension 3x3, we give a complete parametrization of orthogonal UPBs. This is then a parametrization of families of rank 4 entangled (and extremal) PPT states, and we present strong numerical evidence that it is a complete classification of such states. We speculate that the lowest rank entangled and extremal PPT states also in higher dimensions are related to generalized, nonorthogonal UPBs in similar ways.

1991 Acceptance priority ranking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-12-01

The Standard Contract for Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and/or High- Level Radioactive Waste (10 CFR Part 961) that the Department of Energy (DOE) has executed with the owners and generators of civilian spent nuclear fuel requires annual publication of the Acceptance Priority Ranking (APR). The 1991 APR details the order in which DOE will allocate Federal waste acceptance capacity. As required by the Standard Contract, the ranking is based on the age of permanently discharged spent nuclear fuel (SNF), with the owners of the oldest SNF, on an industry-wide basis, given the highest priority. the 1991 APR will be the basis for the annual allocation of waste acceptance capacity to the Purchasers in the 1991 Annual Capacity Report (ACR), to be issued later this year. This document is based on SNF discharges as of December 31, 1990, and reflects Purchaser comments and corrections, as appropriate, to the draft APR issued on May 15, 1991

A Unified Probabilistic Framework for Dose-Response Assessment of Human Health Effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiu, Weihsueh A; Slob, Wout

2015-12-01

When chemical health hazards have been identified, probabilistic dose-response assessment ("hazard characterization") quantifies uncertainty and/or variability in toxicity as a function of human exposure. Existing probabilistic approaches differ for different types of endpoints or modes-of-action, lacking a unifying framework. We developed a unified framework for probabilistic dose-response assessment. We established a framework based on four principles: a) individual and population dose responses are distinct; b) dose-response relationships for all (including quantal) endpoints can be recast as relating to an underlying continuous measure of response at the individual level; c) for effects relevant to humans, "effect metrics" can be specified to define "toxicologically equivalent" sizes for this underlying individual response; and d) dose-response assessment requires making adjustments and accounting for uncertainty and variability. We then derived a step-by-step probabilistic approach for dose-response assessment of animal toxicology data similar to how nonprobabilistic reference doses are derived, illustrating the approach with example non-cancer and cancer datasets. Probabilistically derived exposure limits are based on estimating a "target human dose" (HDMI), which requires risk management-informed choices for the magnitude (M) of individual effect being protected against, the remaining incidence (I) of individuals with effects ≥ M in the population, and the percent confidence. In the example datasets, probabilistically derived 90% confidence intervals for HDMI values span a 40- to 60-fold range, where I = 1% of the population experiences ≥ M = 1%-10% effect sizes. Although some implementation challenges remain, this unified probabilistic framework can provide substantially more complete and transparent characterization of chemical hazards and support better-informed risk management decisions.

Probabilistic Multi-Sensor Fusion Based Indoor Positioning System on a Mobile Device

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Xiang He

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, smart mobile devices include more and more sensors on board, such as motion sensors (accelerometer, gyroscope, magnetometer, wireless signal strength indicators (WiFi, Bluetooth, Zigbee, and visual sensors (LiDAR, camera. People have developed various indoor positioning techniques based on these sensors. In this paper, the probabilistic fusion of multiple sensors is investigated in a hidden Markov model (HMM framework for mobile-device user-positioning. We propose a graph structure to store the model constructed by multiple sensors during the offline training phase, and a multimodal particle filter to seamlessly fuse the information during the online tracking phase. Based on our algorithm, we develop an indoor positioning system on the iOS platform. The experiments carried out in a typical indoor environment have shown promising results for our proposed algorithm and system design.