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Sample records for randomly distributed precipitation

  1. Defining random and systematic error in precipitation interpolation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebrenz, H.; Bárdossy, A.

    2012-04-01

    Variogram-based interpolation methods are widely applied for hydrology. Kriging estimates an expectation value and an associated distribution while simulations provide a distribution of possible realizations of the random function at the unknown location. The associated error in both cases is random and characterized by the convergence of its sum over time to zero, being convenient for subsequent hydrological modelling. This study addresses the quantification of a random and a systematic error for the mentioned interpolation methods. Firstly, monthly precipitation observations are fit to a two-parametric, theoretical distribution at each observation point. Prior to interpolation, the observations are decomposed into two distribution parameters and their corresponding quantiles. The distribution parameters and their quantiles are interpolated to the unknown location and finally recomposed back to precipitation amounts. This method bears the capability of addressing two types of errors: a random error defined by simulating the quantiles and associated expectation value of the parameters, and a systematic error defined by simulating the parameters and the expectation value of the quantiles. The defined random error converges over time to zero while the systematic error does not, but creates a bias. With perspective to subsequent hydrological modelling, the input uncertainty of the interpolated (areal) precipitation is thus described by a random and a systematic error.

  2. Process of random distributions : classification and prediction ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dirichlet random distribution. The parameter of this process can be the distribution of any usual such as the (multifractional) Brownian motion. We also extend Kraft random distribution to the continuous time case. We give an application in ...

  3. Precipitation Intensity and Events Distribution Changes in the Extratropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, R.; Groisman, P. Y.; Zolina, O. G.; Bulygina, O.

    2012-12-01

    More than ten years ago, Groisman et al. (1999) first reported large-scale changes in spectra of precipitation distribution intensity. At the tails of this distribution the frequencies in heavy and very heavy precipitation events have increased over many parts of the extratropics. These increases were disproportionally high in the regions where the precipitation totals increased and were observed even in the regions where the mean rainfall remained unchanged or decreased. Thereafter, this peculiarity of the contemporary precipitation distribution change was substantiated in many regional studies summarized by Groisman and Knight (2013) and will be reported in our presentation. Increases in the frequency of very heavy and extreme precipitation events (with return period of several years and decades respectively) are important for impact studies (assessment of soil erosion, potential of flood) but these events represent a small fraction in annual rainfall totals. Therefore, we analyzed the changes in the mean daily rainfall intensity over the northern extratropics in the regions well elucidated with dense gauge networks (southern Canada, contiguous U.S., Europe, Russia, and Japan). Nearly everywhere, we found systematic increases in daily rainfall totals per day with rain. While increases in very heavy and extreme rainfall intensity are an independent characteristic of the ongoing climatic change, the observed changes in mean precipitation intensity are in line with the ongoing global and regional warming. Duration of the sequences of wet days (prolonged rain events) increased in Europe and Northern Asia, and the duration of the sequences of dry days (prolonged no-rain events) increased over large parts of Northern Eurasia and North America (Zolina et al. 2010; Groisman and Knight 2007; 2013). To describe this feature of the rain events distribution, Zolina et al. (2012) suggested a visual interpretation of wet days as beads on the necklace of the seasonal cycle time

  4. Use of remotely sensed precipitation and leaf area index in a distributed hydrological model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jens; Dybkjær, Gorm Ibsen; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2002-01-01

    distributed hydrological modelling, remote sensing, precipitation, leaf area index, NOAA AVHRR, cold cloud duration......distributed hydrological modelling, remote sensing, precipitation, leaf area index, NOAA AVHRR, cold cloud duration...

  5. Scaling precipitation input to spatially distributed hydrological models by measured snow distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vögeli, Christian; Lehning, Michael; Wever, Nander; Bavay, Mathias

    2016-12-01

    Accurate knowledge on snow distribution in alpine terrain is crucial for various applications such as flood risk assessment, avalanche warning or managing water supply and hydro-power. To simulate the seasonal snow cover development in alpine terrain, the spatially distributed, physics-based model Alpine3D is suitable. The model is typically driven by spatial interpolations of observations from automatic weather stations (AWS), leading to errors in the spatial distribution of atmospheric forcing. With recent advances in remote sensing techniques, maps of snow depth can be acquired with high spatial resolution and accuracy. In this work, maps of the snow depth distribution, calculated from summer and winter digital surface models based on Airborne Digital Sensors (ADS), are used to scale precipitation input data, with the aim to improve the accuracy of simulation of the spatial distribution of snow with Alpine3D. A simple method to scale and redistribute precipitation is presented and the performance is analysed. The scaling method is only applied if it is snowing. For rainfall the precipitation is distributed by interpolation, with a simple air temperature threshold used for the determination of the precipitation phase. It was found that the accuracy of spatial snow distribution could be improved significantly for the simulated domain. The standard deviation of absolute snow depth error is reduced up to a factor 3.4 to less than 20 cm. The mean absolute error in snow distribution was reduced when using representative input sources for the simulation domain. For inter-annual scaling, the model performance could also be improved, even when using a remote sensing dataset from a different winter. In conclusion, using remote sensing data to process precipitation input, complex processes such as preferential snow deposition and snow relocation due to wind or avalanches, can be substituted and modelling performance of spatial snow distribution is improved.

  6. Scaling precipitation input to spatially distributed hydrological models by measured snow distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Vögeli

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Accurate knowledge on snow distribution in alpine terrain is crucial for various applicationssuch as flood risk assessment, avalanche warning or managing water supply and hydro-power.To simulate the seasonal snow cover development in alpine terrain, the spatially distributed,physics-based model Alpine3D is suitable. The model is typically driven by spatial interpolationsof observations from automatic weather stations (AWS, leading to errors in the spatial distributionof atmospheric forcing. With recent advances in remote sensing techniques, maps of snowdepth can be acquired with high spatial resolution and accuracy. In this work, maps of the snowdepth distribution, calculated from summer and winter digital surface models based on AirborneDigital Sensors (ADS, are used to scale precipitation input data, with the aim to improve theaccuracy of simulation of the spatial distribution of snow with Alpine3D. A simple method toscale and redistribute precipitation is presented and the performance is analysed. The scalingmethod is only applied if it is snowing. For rainfall the precipitation is distributed by interpolation,with a simple air temperature threshold used for the determination of the precipitation phase.It was found that the accuracy of spatial snow distribution could be improved significantly forthe simulated domain. The standard deviation of absolute snow depth error is reduced up toa factor 3.4 to less than 20 cm. The mean absolute error in snow distribution was reducedwhen using representative input sources for the simulation domain. For inter-annual scaling, themodel performance could also be improved, even when using a remote sensing dataset from adifferent winter. In conclusion, using remote sensing data to process precipitation input, complexprocesses such as preferential snow deposition and snow relocation due to wind or avalanches,can be substituted and modelling performance of spatial snow distribution is improved.

  7. Precipitation Recycling and the Vertical Distribution of Local and Remote Sources of Water for Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Precipitation recycling is defined as the amount of water that evaporates from a region that precipitates within the same region. This is also interpreted as the local source of water for precipitation. In this study, the local and remote sources of water for precipitation have been diagnosed through the use of passive constituent tracers that represent regional evaporative sources along with their transport and precipitation. We will discuss the differences between this method and the simpler bulk diagnostic approach to precipitation recycling. A summer seasonal simulation has been analyzed for the regional sources of the United States Great Plains precipitation. While the tropical Atlantic Ocean (including the Gulf of Mexico) and the local continental sources of precipitation are most dominant, the vertically integrated column of water contains substantial water content originating from the Northern Pacific Ocean, which is not precipitated. The vertical profiles of regional water sources indicate that local Great Plains source of water dominates the lower troposphere, predominantly in the PBL. However, the Pacific Ocean source is dominant over a large portion of the middle to upper troposphere. The influence of the tropical Atlantic Ocean is reasonably uniform throughout the column. While the results are not unexpected given the formulation of the model's convective parameterization, the analysis provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of local evaporation on the occurrence of convective precipitation in the GCM. Further, these results suggest that local source of water is not well mixed throughout the vertical column.

  8. Modeling Spatiotemporal Precipitation: Effects of Density, Interpolation, and Land Use Distribution

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Shope, Christopher L; Maharjan, Ganga Ram

    2015-01-01

    .... Introduction Rain gauges provide a point estimation of precipitation, which, depending on the network size and density, require interpolation techniques to estimate the spatial distribution thro...

  9. Precipitation regime influence on oxygen triple-isotope distributions in Antarctic precipitation and ice cores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Martin F.

    2018-01-01

    The relative abundance of 17O in meteoric precipitation is usually reported in terms of the 17O-excess parameter. Variations of 17O-excess in Antarctic precipitation and ice cores have hitherto been attributed to normalised relative humidity changes at the moisture source region, or to the influence of a temperature-dependent supersaturation-controlled kinetic isotope effect during in-cloud ice formation below -20 °C. Neither mechanism, however, satisfactorily explains the large range of 17O-excess values reported from measurements. A different approach, based on the regression characteristics of 103 ln (1 +δ17 O) versus 103 ln (1 +δ18 O), is applied here to previously published isotopic data sets. The analysis indicates that clear-sky precipitation ('diamond dust'), which occurs widely in inland Antarctica, is characterised by an unusual relative abundance of 17O, distinct from that associated with cloud-derived, synoptic snowfall. Furthermore, this distinction appears to be largely preserved in the ice core record. The respective mass contributions to snowfall accumulation - on both temporal and spatial scales - provides the basis of a simple, first-order explanation for the observed oxygen triple-isotope ratio variations in Antarctic precipitation, surface snow and ice cores. Using this approach, it is shown that precipitation during the last major deglaciation, both in western Antarctica at the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide and at Vostok on the eastern Antarctic plateau, consisted essentially of diamond dust only, despite a large temperature differential (and thus different water vapour supersaturation conditions) at the two locations. In contrast, synoptic snowfall events dominate the accumulation record throughout the Holocene at both sites.

  10. A random forest algorithm for nowcasting of intense precipitation events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Saurabh; Chakraborty, Rohit; Maitra, Animesh

    2017-09-01

    Automatic nowcasting of convective initiation and thunderstorms has potential applications in several sectors including aviation planning and disaster management. In this paper, random forest based machine learning algorithm is tested for nowcasting of convective rain with a ground based radiometer. Brightness temperatures measured at 14 frequencies (7 frequencies in 22-31 GHz band and 7 frequencies in 51-58 GHz bands) are utilized as the inputs of the model. The lower frequency band is associated to the water vapor absorption whereas the upper frequency band relates to the oxygen absorption and hence, provide information on the temperature and humidity of the atmosphere. Synthetic minority over-sampling technique is used to balance the data set and 10-fold cross validation is used to assess the performance of the model. Results indicate that random forest algorithm with fixed alarm generation time of 30 min and 60 min performs quite well (probability of detection of all types of weather condition ∼90%) with low false alarms. It is, however, also observed that reducing the alarm generation time improves the threat score significantly and also decreases false alarms. The proposed model is found to be very sensitive to the boundary layer instability as indicated by the variable importance measure. The study shows the suitability of a random forest algorithm for nowcasting application utilizing a large number of input parameters from diverse sources and can be utilized in other forecasting problems.

  11. Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: Recommendations for simulating wet and dry years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knapp, Alan K.; Avolio, Meghan L.; Beier, Claus; Carroll, Charles J.W.; Collins, Scott L.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Fraser, Lauchlan H.; Griffin-Nolan, Robert J.; Hoover, David L.; Jentsch, Anke; Loik, Michael E.; Phillips, Richard P.; Post, Alison K.; Sala, Osvaldo E.; Slette, Ingrid J.; Yahdjian, Laura; Smith, Melinda D.

    2017-01-01

    Intensification of the global hydrological cycle, ranging from larger individual precipitation events to more extreme multiyear droughts, has the potential to cause widespread alterations in ecosystem structure and function. With evidence that the incidence of extreme precipitation years (defined statistically from historical precipitation records) is increasing, there is a clear need to identify ecosystems that are most vulnerable to these changes and understand why some ecosystems are more sensitive to extremes than others. To date, opportunistic studies of naturally occurring extreme precipitation years, combined with results from a relatively small number of experiments, have provided limited mechanistic understanding of differences in ecosystem sensitivity, suggesting that new approaches are needed. Coordinated distributed experiments (CDEs) arrayed across multiple ecosystem types and focused on water can enhance our understanding of differential ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes, but there are many design challenges to overcome (e.g., cost, comparability, standardization). Here, we evaluate contemporary experimental approaches for manipulating precipitation under field conditions to inform the design of ‘Drought-Net’, a relatively low-cost CDE that simulates extreme precipitation years. A common method for imposing both dry and wet years is to alter each ambient precipitation event. We endorse this approach for imposing extreme precipitation years because it simultaneously alters other precipitation characteristics (i.e., event size) consistent with natural precipitation patterns. However, we do not advocate applying identical treatment levels at all sites – a common approach to standardization in CDEs. This is because precipitation variability varies >fivefold globally resulting in a wide range of ecosystem-specific thresholds for defining extreme precipitation years. For CDEs focused on precipitation extremes, treatments should be based

  12. Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: recommendations for simulating wet and dry years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knapp, Alan K; Avolio, Meghan L; Beier, Claus; Carroll, Charles J W; Collins, Scott L; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Fraser, Lauchlan H; Griffin-Nolan, Robert J; Hoover, David L; Jentsch, Anke; Loik, Michael E; Phillips, Richard P; Post, Alison K; Sala, Osvaldo E; Slette, Ingrid J; Yahdjian, Laura; Smith, Melinda D

    2017-05-01

    Intensification of the global hydrological cycle, ranging from larger individual precipitation events to more extreme multiyear droughts, has the potential to cause widespread alterations in ecosystem structure and function. With evidence that the incidence of extreme precipitation years (defined statistically from historical precipitation records) is increasing, there is a clear need to identify ecosystems that are most vulnerable to these changes and understand why some ecosystems are more sensitive to extremes than others. To date, opportunistic studies of naturally occurring extreme precipitation years, combined with results from a relatively small number of experiments, have provided limited mechanistic understanding of differences in ecosystem sensitivity, suggesting that new approaches are needed. Coordinated distributed experiments (CDEs) arrayed across multiple ecosystem types and focused on water can enhance our understanding of differential ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes, but there are many design challenges to overcome (e.g., cost, comparability, standardization). Here, we evaluate contemporary experimental approaches for manipulating precipitation under field conditions to inform the design of 'Drought-Net', a relatively low-cost CDE that simulates extreme precipitation years. A common method for imposing both dry and wet years is to alter each ambient precipitation event. We endorse this approach for imposing extreme precipitation years because it simultaneously alters other precipitation characteristics (i.e., event size) consistent with natural precipitation patterns. However, we do not advocate applying identical treatment levels at all sites - a common approach to standardization in CDEs. This is because precipitation variability varies >fivefold globally resulting in a wide range of ecosystem-specific thresholds for defining extreme precipitation years. For CDEs focused on precipitation extremes, treatments should be based on

  13. Late Quaternary glacier sensitivity to temperature and precipitation distribution in the Southern Alps of New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ann V. Rowan; Simon H. Brocklehurst; David M. Schultz; Mitchell A. Plummer; Leif S. Anderson; Neil F. Glasser

    2014-05-01

    Glaciers respond to climate variations and leave geomorphic evidence that represents an important terrestrial paleoclimate record. However, the accuracy of paleoclimate reconstructions from glacial geology is limited by the challenge of representing mountain meteorology in numerical models. Precipitation is usually treated in a simple manner and yet represents difficult-to-characterize variables such as amount, distribution, and phase. Furthermore, precipitation distributions during a glacial probably differed from present-day interglacial patterns. We applied two models to investigate glacier sensitivity to temperature and precipitation in the eastern Southern Alps of New Zealand. A 2-D model was used to quantify variations in the length of the reconstructed glaciers resulting from plausible precipitation distributions compared to variations in length resulting from change in mean annual air temperature and precipitation amount. A 1-D model was used to quantify variations in length resulting from interannual climate variability. Assuming that present-day interglacial values represent precipitation distributions during the last glacial, a range of plausible present-day precipitation distributions resulted in uncertainty in the Last Glacial Maximum length of the Pukaki Glacier of 17.1?km (24%) and the Rakaia Glacier of 9.3?km (25%), corresponding to a 0.5°C difference in temperature. Smaller changes in glacier length resulted from a 50% decrease in precipitation amount from present-day values (-14% and -18%) and from a 50% increase in precipitation amount (5% and 9%). Our results demonstrate that precipitation distribution can produce considerable variation in simulated glacier extents and that reconstructions of paleoglaciers should include this uncertainty.

  14. The spatial distribution of precipitation and topography in the Qilian Shan Mountains, northeastern Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geng, Haopeng; Pan, Baotian; Huang, Bo; Cao, Bo; Gao, Hongshan

    2017-11-01

    The mutual interrelation of orographic precipitation pattern and topography is key to understanding the competing role of tectonics and climate in landscape evolution. However, the relationship between precipitation and topography across arid to semiarid orogens has received little attention because of limited data availability. As a global successor to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) extends precipitation measurements to mid- and high latitudes since 2014. In this study, we process one year of GPM precipitation with a spatial resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° across the arid to semiarid Qilian Shan Mountains to examine the spatial correlation between topography and precipitation. Though short, this data set provides reasonable precipitation when compared with other weather station relevant estimates. We then use nine orogen-perpendicular swath profiles to examine the influence of topography on precipitation distribution through the range. The results show that precipitation variation displays a significant elevation control with precipitation peaks in the high elevation mountain interior. We further compare the GPM precipitation with elevation and local relief within each swath extent. The results show that precipitation uniformly increases with increasing elevation for nine swaths, which is consistent with the elevation-controlled precipitation pattern. We find precipitation and local relief are positively correlated for five swaths but not for the remaining four swaths. Based on published data for uplift and erosion, we suggest that the presence or absence of such a correlation indicates whether mountains are in topographic steady state or in a transient state of relief production.

  15. Impact of precipitation spatial resolution on the hydrological response of an integrated distributed water resources model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fu, Suhua; Sonnenborg, Torben; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2011-01-01

    Precipitation is a key input variable to hydrological models, and the spatial variability of the input is expected to impact the hydrological response predicted by a distributed model. In this study, the effect of spatial resolution of precipitation on runoff , recharge and groundwater head...... of the total catchment and runoff discharge hydrograph at watershed outlet. On the other hand, groundwater recharge and groundwater head were both aff ected. The impact of the spatial resolution of precipitation input is reduced with increasing catchment size. The effect on stream discharge is relatively low......, groundwater recharge, and groundwater head were also affected by the method for correction of systematic errors in precipitation measurements. The results underscored the importance of using a spatial resolution of the precipitation input that captures the overall precipitation characteristics...

  16. Data set: 31 years of spatially distributed air temperature, humidity, precipitation amount and precipitation phase from a mountain catchment in the rain-snow transition zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirty one years of spatially distributed air temperature, relative humidity, dew point temperature, precipitation amount, and precipitation phase data are presented for the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed. The data are spatially distributed over a 10m Lidar-derived digital elevation model at ...

  17. Effects of extreme precipitation to the distribution of infectious diseases in Taiwan, 1994-2008.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mu-Jean Chen

    Full Text Available The incidence of extreme precipitation has increased with the exacerbation of worldwide climate disruption. We hypothesize an association between precipitation and the distribution patterns that would affect the endemic burden of 8 infectious diseases in Taiwan, including water- and vector-borne infectious diseases. A database integrating daily precipitation and temperature, along with the infectious disease case registry for all 352 townships in the main island of Taiwan was analysed for the period from 1994 to 2008. Four precipitation levels, 350 mm, were categorized to represent quantitative differences, and their associations with each specific disease was investigated using the Generalized Additive Mixed Model and afterwards mapped on to the Geographical Information System. Daily precipitation levels were significantly correlated with all 8 mandatory-notified infectious diseases in Taiwan. For water-borne infections, extreme torrential precipitation (>350 mm/day was found to result in the highest relative risk for bacillary dysentery and enterovirus infections when compared to ordinary rain (<130 mm/day. Yet, for vector-borne diseases, the relative risk of dengue fever and Japanese encephalitis increased with greater precipitation only up to 350 mm. Differential lag effects following precipitation were statistically associated with increased risk for contracting individual infectious diseases. This study's findings can help health resource sector management better allocate medical resources and be better prepared to deal with infectious disease outbreaks following future extreme precipitation events.

  18. Effects of extreme precipitation to the distribution of infectious diseases in Taiwan, 1994-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mu-Jean; Lin, Chuan-Yao; Wu, Yi-Ting; Wu, Pei-Chih; Lung, Shih-Chun; Su, Huey-Jen

    2012-01-01

    The incidence of extreme precipitation has increased with the exacerbation of worldwide climate disruption. We hypothesize an association between precipitation and the distribution patterns that would affect the endemic burden of 8 infectious diseases in Taiwan, including water- and vector-borne infectious diseases. A database integrating daily precipitation and temperature, along with the infectious disease case registry for all 352 townships in the main island of Taiwan was analysed for the period from 1994 to 2008. Four precipitation levels, 350 mm, were categorized to represent quantitative differences, and their associations with each specific disease was investigated using the Generalized Additive Mixed Model and afterwards mapped on to the Geographical Information System. Daily precipitation levels were significantly correlated with all 8 mandatory-notified infectious diseases in Taiwan. For water-borne infections, extreme torrential precipitation (>350 mm/day) was found to result in the highest relative risk for bacillary dysentery and enterovirus infections when compared to ordinary rain (precipitation only up to 350 mm. Differential lag effects following precipitation were statistically associated with increased risk for contracting individual infectious diseases. This study's findings can help health resource sector management better allocate medical resources and be better prepared to deal with infectious disease outbreaks following future extreme precipitation events.

  19. Raney Distributions and Random Matrix Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forrester, Peter J.; Liu, Dang-Zheng

    2015-03-01

    Recent works have shown that the family of probability distributions with moments given by the Fuss-Catalan numbers permit a simple parameterized form for their density. We extend this result to the Raney distribution which by definition has its moments given by a generalization of the Fuss-Catalan numbers. Such computations begin with an algebraic equation satisfied by the Stieltjes transform, which we show can be derived from the linear differential equation satisfied by the characteristic polynomial of random matrix realizations of the Raney distribution. For the Fuss-Catalan distribution, an equilibrium problem characterizing the density is identified. The Stieltjes transform for the limiting spectral density of the singular values squared of the matrix product formed from inverse standard Gaussian matrices, and standard Gaussian matrices, is shown to satisfy a variant of the algebraic equation relating to the Raney distribution. Supported on , we show that it too permits a simple functional form upon the introduction of an appropriate choice of parameterization. As an application, the leading asymptotic form of the density as the endpoints of the support are approached is computed, and is shown to have some universal features.

  20. SEVEN YEARS (2004-2010 PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION IN TRANSYLVANIA (ROMANIA FROM DAILY DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    OTTILIA RUSZ

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Seven years (2004-2010 precipitation distribution in Transylvania (Romania from daily data. Daily precipitation amount data from 21 meteorological stations were studied. These stations are located in the following counties: Alba, Brasov, Cluj, Covasna, Harghita, Mures and Sibiu. Factor analysis was applied in order to delimit areas with same precipitation distribution patterns in Transylvania in the period 2004-2010. It was found 3 dominant factors which can explain 67.19 % of variance. All factors are related to local conditions, namely to geographic position, but they are independent from topography. Using factor loadings, 3 maps are presented, which reveals the spatial influence of these 3 factors. For each meteorological station was made a precipitation distribution figure. These figures and the 3 maps were made with Arcmap software using spline with barriers interpolation method. Distribution figures of stations defined by the same factor pattern are similar. The first factor, responsible for less precipitation affects especially the south eastern part of area. The third factor provides the highest amount of rainfall and influence mainly the northern part of region. The south western part of Transylvania is dominated by the second factor which insures the most balanced precipitation pattern.

  1. An Ensemble Generator for Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Based on Censored Shifted Gamma Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, D.; Kirschbaum, D.; Yatheendradas, S.

    2016-12-01

    The considerable uncertainties associated with quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE), whether from satellite platforms, ground-based weather radar, or numerical weather models, suggest that such QPE should be expressed as distributions or ensembles of possible values, rather than as single values. In this research, we borrow a framework from the weather forecast verification community, to "correct" satellite precipitation and generate ensemble QPE. This approach is based on the censored shifted gamma distribution (CSGD). The probability of precipitation, central tendency (i.e. mean), and the uncertainty can be captured by the three parameters of the CSGD. The CSGD can then be applied for simulation of rainfall ensembles using a flexible nonlinear regression framework, whereby the CSGD parameters can be conditioned on one or more reference rainfall datasets and on other time-varying covariates such as modeled or measured estimates of precipitable water and relative humidity. We present the framework and initial results by generating precipitation ensembles based on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) dataset, using both NLDAS and PERSIANN-CDR precipitation datasets as references. We also incorporate a number of covariates from MERRA2 reanalysis including model-estimated precipitation, precipitable water, relative humidity, and lifting condensation level. We explore the prospects for applying the framework and other ensemble error models globally, including in regions where high-quality "ground truth" rainfall estimates are lacking. We compare the ensemble outputs against those of an independent rain gage-based ensemble rainfall dataset. "Pooling" of regional rainfall observations is explored as one option for improving ensemble estimates of rainfall extremes. The approach has potential applications in near-realtime, retrospective, and scenario modeling of rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides

  2. Global distribution of energetic proton precipitations equatorward of the boundary of isotropic fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenova, N. V.; Yahnina, T. A.; Yahnin, A. G.; Demekhov, A. G.

    2017-07-01

    Based on data of the NOAA POES satellite, the global distribution of the occurrence rate of precipitations of energetic protons ( E > 30 keV) equatorward of the boundary of isotropic fluxes has been constructed for the first time. It has been shown that the occurrence rate of proton precipitations inside the zone of anisotropic fluxes is maximum in daytime hours (1100-1600 MLT) at latitudes L = 6-9 and decreases in evening and morning hours. Comparison of the obtained results about proton precipitations with the spatial distribution of the occurrence rate of electromagnetic ion-cyclotron (EMIC) waves in the equatorial magnetosphere according to results of satellite observations demonstrates a close relationship between them. This corroborates that precipitations of energetic protons equatorward of the boundary of isotropic fluxes are a consequence of the development of the ion-cyclotron instability in the equatorial magnetosphere.

  3. Distribution of tritium in water vapour and precipitation around Wolsung nuclear power plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chae, Jung-Seok; Lee, Sang-Kuk; Kim, Yongjae; Lee, Jung-Min; Cho, Heung-Joon; Cho, Yong-Woo; Yun, Ju-Yong

    2011-07-01

    The distribution of tritium in water vapour and precipitation with discharge of tritiated water vapour and meteorological factors was studied around the Wolsung nuclear power plant (NPP) site during the period 2004-2008. The tritium concentrations in atmospheric water vapour and precipitation had a temporal variation with relatively high values in the early summer. Spatial distribution of tritium concentrations was affected by various factors such as distance from the NPP site, wind direction, tritium discharge into the atmosphere and atmospheric dispersion factor. The annual mean concentrations of atmospheric HTO and precipitation were correlated with the amount of gaseous tritium released from the Wolsung NPP. The tritium concentrations in precipitation decrease exponentially with an increase of the distance from the Wolsung NPP site.

  4. Distributions on unbounded moment spaces and random moment sequences

    OpenAIRE

    Dette, Holger; Nagel, Jan

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we define distributions on moment spaces corresponding to measures on the real line with an unbounded support. We identify these distributions as limiting distributions of random moment vectors defined on compact moment spaces and as distributions corresponding to random spectral measures associated with the Jacobi, Laguerre and Hermite ensemble from random matrix theory. For random vectors on the unbounded moment spaces we prove a central limit theorem where the centering vecto...

  5. Probability Distributions for Random Quantum Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Kevin

    Motivated by uncertainty quantification and inference of quantum information systems, in this work we draw connections between the notions of random quantum states and operations in quantum information with probability distributions commonly encountered in the field of orientation statistics. This approach identifies natural sample spaces and probability distributions upon these spaces that can be used in the analysis, simulation, and inference of quantum information systems. The theory of exponential families on Stiefel manifolds provides the appropriate generalization to the classical case. Furthermore, this viewpoint motivates a number of additional questions into the convex geometry of quantum operations relative to both the differential geometry of Stiefel manifolds as well as the information geometry of exponential families defined upon them. In particular, we draw on results from convex geometry to characterize which quantum operations can be represented as the average of a random quantum operation. This project was supported by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity via Department of Interior National Business Center Contract Number 2012-12050800010.

  6. Multivariate log-skew-elliptical distributions with applications to precipitation data

    KAUST Repository

    Marchenko, Yulia V.

    2009-07-13

    We introduce a family of multivariate log-skew-elliptical distributions, extending the list of multivariate distributions with positive support. We investigate their probabilistic properties such as stochastic representations, marginal and conditional distributions, and existence of moments, as well as inferential properties. We demonstrate, for example, that as for the log-t distribution, the positive moments of the log-skew-t distribution do not exist. Our emphasis is on two special cases, the log-skew-normal and log-skew-t distributions, which we use to analyze US national (univariate) and regional (multivariate) monthly precipitation data. © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Describing the interannual variability of precipitation with the derived distribution approach: effects of record length and resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Claudio I.; Sebastián Moraga, Jorge; Pranzini, Geri; Molnar, Peter

    2016-10-01

    Interannual variability of precipitation is traditionally described by fitting a probability model to yearly precipitation totals. There are three potential problems with this approach: a long record (at least 25-30 years) is required in order to fit the model, years with missing rainfall data cannot be used, and the data need to be homogeneous, i.e., one has to assume stationarity. To overcome some of these limitations, we test an alternative methodology proposed by Eagleson (1978), based on the derived distribution (DD) approach. It allows estimation of the probability density function (pdf) of annual rainfall without requiring long records, provided that continuously gauged precipitation data are available to derive external storm properties. The DD approach combines marginal pdfs for storm depths and inter-arrival times to obtain an analytical formulation of the distribution of annual precipitation, under the simplifying assumptions of independence between events and independence between storm depth and time to the next storm. Because it is based on information about storms and not on annual totals, the DD can make use of information from years with incomplete data; more importantly, only a few years of rainfall measurements should suffice to estimate the parameters of the marginal pdfs, at least at locations where it rains with some regularity. For two temperate locations in different climates (Concepción, Chile, and Lugano, Switzerland), we randomly resample shortened time series to evaluate in detail the effects of record length on the DD, comparing the results with the traditional approach of fitting a normal (or lognormal) distribution. Then, at the same two stations, we assess the biases introduced in the DD when using daily totalized rainfall, instead of continuously gauged data. Finally, for randomly selected periods between 3 and 15 years in length, we conduct full blind tests at 52 high-quality gauging stations in Switzerland, analyzing the ability

  8. Describing the interannual variability of precipitation with the derived distribution approach: effects of record length and resolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. I. Meier

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Interannual variability of precipitation is traditionally described by fitting a probability model to yearly precipitation totals. There are three potential problems with this approach: a long record (at least 25–30 years is required in order to fit the model, years with missing rainfall data cannot be used, and the data need to be homogeneous, i.e., one has to assume stationarity. To overcome some of these limitations, we test an alternative methodology proposed by Eagleson (1978, based on the derived distribution (DD approach. It allows estimation of the probability density function (pdf of annual rainfall without requiring long records, provided that continuously gauged precipitation data are available to derive external storm properties. The DD approach combines marginal pdfs for storm depths and inter-arrival times to obtain an analytical formulation of the distribution of annual precipitation, under the simplifying assumptions of independence between events and independence between storm depth and time to the next storm. Because it is based on information about storms and not on annual totals, the DD can make use of information from years with incomplete data; more importantly, only a few years of rainfall measurements should suffice to estimate the parameters of the marginal pdfs, at least at locations where it rains with some regularity. For two temperate locations in different climates (Concepción, Chile, and Lugano, Switzerland, we randomly resample shortened time series to evaluate in detail the effects of record length on the DD, comparing the results with the traditional approach of fitting a normal (or lognormal distribution. Then, at the same two stations, we assess the biases introduced in the DD when using daily totalized rainfall, instead of continuously gauged data. Finally, for randomly selected periods between 3 and 15 years in length, we conduct full blind tests at 52 high-quality gauging stations in Switzerland

  9. Quantification and spatial distribution of precipitation on the territory of Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Štrbac Dragoljub

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a method for quantification and spatial distribution of precipitation on the territory of Serbia on the basis of data on mean annual rainfall and altitude of measuring points and relief data of Serbia. What has been determined first in the study is how the amount of precipitation depends on the altitude of the measuring point. The established type of the dependence of the amount of rainfall on altitude has been applied on data on elevations (relief of Serbia, which led to the spatial distribution of rainfall. The data on average annual rainfall and altitude for 434 measuring points served as precipitation data, while the data created during the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM were used as data source on relief of Serbia. The research was conducted using a geographic information system (GIS. The problem of determining the spatial distribution of rainfall in the literature is usually solved by establishing a direct relationship between the height of terrain (independent variable and precipitation (dependent variable, and then the dependence applied to the whole observed area is determined (linear dependence, kriging, etc.. In this case the relation between precipitation (P and altitude (h was determined indirectly. Coefficient K is defined as the ratio between precipitation and altitude at which precipitation is measured, K = P/h. It has been found that there is a very high correlation (> 0.95 between the coefficient K and altitude h. The relationship between the height h and the coefficient K is modelled by form K = ahb. The resulting ratio is applied to the data on the relief and thus the distribution of rainfall for the area of Serbia is obtained. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 47007

  10. On the Vertical Distribution of Local and Remote Sources of Water for Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.

    2001-01-01

    The vertical distribution of local and remote sources of water for precipitation and total column water over the United States are evaluated in a general circulation model simulation. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model (GCM) includes passive constituent tracers to determine the geographical sources of the water in the column. Results show that the local percentage of precipitable water and local percentage of precipitation can be very different. The transport of water vapor from remote oceanic sources at mid and upper levels is important to the total water in the column over the central United States, while the access of locally evaporated water in convective precipitation processes is important to the local precipitation ratio. This result resembles the conceptual formulation of the convective parameterization. However, the formulations of simple models of precipitation recycling include the assumption that the ratio of the local water in the column is equal to the ratio of the local precipitation. The present results demonstrate the uncertainty in that assumption, as locally evaporated water is more concentrated near the surface.

  11. [Effects of precipitation intensity on soil organic carbon fractions and their distribution under subtropical forests of South China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiao-mei; Liu, Ju-xiu; Deng, Qi; Chu, Guo-wei; Zhou, Guo-yi; Zhang, De-qiang

    2010-05-01

    From December 2006 to June 2008, a field experiment was conducted to study the effects of natural precipitation, doubled precipitation, and no precipitation on the soil organic carbon fractions and their distribution under a successional series of monsoon evergreen broad-leaf forest, pine and broad-leaf mixed forest, and pine forest in Dinghushan Mountain of Southern China. Different precipitation treatments had no significant effects on the total organic carbon (TOC) concentration in the same soil layer under the same forest type (P > 0.05). In treatment no precipitation, particulate organic carbon (POC) and light fraction organic carbon (LFOC) were mainly accumulated in surface soil layer (0-10 cm); but in treatments natural precipitation and doubled precipitation, the two fractions were infiltrated to deeper soil layers. Under pine forest, soil readily oxidizable organic carbon (ROC) was significantly higher in treatment no precipitation than in treatments natural precipitation and doubled precipitation (P labile components POC, ROC, and LFOC.

  12. Estimation of spatial distribution of t-year precipitation with 5 km resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzuha, Y.

    2014-12-01

    We estimated the spatial distribution of t-year precipitation such as 100-year precipitation, 50-year precipitation, and so on in Japan. If the return period of t-year precipitation, t, is greater than the data size (number of data of time series of annual maxima), then we use a traditional parametric method by which some probability distributions are used and goodness-of-fit results are mutually compared. The criterion of goodness-of-fit that we used is the Takara-Takasao criterion (1988). The criterion is designated as the standard least squares criterion (SLSC) in Japan. We designate this case as a 'case for a few samples'. However, if the number of data of time series of annual maxima is greater than the return period t, then the case is that for numerous samples. For the case, we used Takara's method (2006), which uses a nonparametric probability distribution.For both cases for a few samples and for numerous samples, the bootstrap method is applied to ascertain the variation of the estimated t-year precipitation obtained using the parametric or nonparametric probability distribution we chose. We emphasize that Monte-Carlo-like simulations are not necessary for the case with numerous samples: a theoretical solution exists for the bootstrap method. We show the theoretical solutions. Furthermore, the data we used are solutions obtained using CGCM (KAKUSHIN-5 km data). Therefore, data with very high spatial resolution of 5 km can be used. Even if sparsely distributed precipitation data are used, high-resolution data can be obtained using CGCM data.

  13. Glaciers as a proxy to quantify the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Hunza basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Immerzeel, W.W.; Pellicciotti, F.; Shrestha, A.B.

    2012-01-01

    Accurate quantification of the spatial distribution of precipitation in mountain regions is crucial for assessments of water resources and for the understanding of highaltitude hydrology, yet it is one of the largest unknowns due to the lack of high-altitude observations. The Hunza basin

  14. Use of remotely sensed precipitation and leaf area index in a distributed hydrological model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, J.; Dybkjær, G.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2002-01-01

    Remotely sensed precipitation from METEOSAT data and leaf area index (LAI) from NOAA AVHRR data is used as input data to the distributed hydrological modelling of three sub catchments (82.000 km(2)) in the Senegal River Basin. Further, root depths of annual vegetation are related to the temporal...... and spatial variation of LAI. The modelling results are compared with results based on conventional input of precipitation and vegetation characteristics. The introduction of remotely sensed LAI shows improvements in the simulated hydrographs, a marked change in the relative proportions of actual...

  15. Characterization of tropical precipitation using drop size distribution and rain rate-radar reflectivity relation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Saurabh; Maitra, Animesh

    2017-03-01

    Characterization of precipitation is important for proper interpretation of rain information from remotely sensed data. Rain attenuation and radar reflectivity (Z) depend directly on the drop size distribution (DSD). The relation between radar reflectivity/rain attenuation and rain rate (R) varies widely depending upon the origin, topography, and drop evolution mechanism and needs further understanding of the precipitation characteristics. The present work utilizes 2 years of concurrent measurements of DSD using a ground-based disdrometer at five diverse climatic conditions in Indian subcontinent and explores the possibility of rain classification based on microphysical characteristics of precipitation. It is observed that both gamma and lognormal distributions are performing almost similar for Indian region with a marginally better performance by one model than other depending upon the locations. It has also been found that shape-slope relationship of gamma distribution can be a good indicator of rain type. The Z-R relation, Z = ARb, is found to vary widely for different precipitation systems, with convective rain that has higher values of A than the stratiform rain for two locations, whereas the reverse is observed for the rest of the three locations. Further, the results indicate that the majority of rainfall (>50%) in Indian region is due to the convective rain although the occurrence time of convective rain is low (<10%).

  16. Global Distribution of Extreme Precipitation and High-Impact Landslides in 2010 Relative to Previous Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschbaum, Dalia; Adler, Robert; Adler, David; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Huffman, George

    2012-01-01

    It is well known that extreme or prolonged rainfall is the dominant trigger of landslides worldwide. While research has evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme rainfall and landslides at local or regional scales using in situ data, few studies have mapped rainfall-triggered landslide distribution globally due to the dearth of landslide data and consistent precipitation information. This study uses a newly developed Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) and a 13-year satellite-based precipitation record from TRMM data. For the first time, these two unique products provide the foundation to quantitatively evaluate the co-occurrence of precipitation and landslides globally. Evaluation of the GLC indicates that 2010 had a large number of high-impact landslide events relative to previous years. This study considers how variations in extreme and prolonged satellite-based rainfall are related to the distribution of landslides over the same time scales for three active landslide areas: Central America, the Himalayan Arc, and central-eastern China. Several test statistics confirm that TRMM rainfall generally scales with the observed increase in landslide reports and fatal events for 2010 and previous years over each region. These findings suggest that the co-occurrence of satellite precipitation and landslide reports may serve as a valuable indicator for characterizing the spatiotemporal distribution of landslide-prone areas in order to establish a global rainfall-triggered landslide climatology. This study characterizes the variability of satellite precipitation data and reported landslide activity at the globally scale in order to improve landslide cataloging, forecasting and quantify potential triggering sources at daily, monthly and yearly time scales.

  17. Influence of orography on precipitation amount and distribution in NW Greece; A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sindosi, O. A.; Bartzokas, A.; Kotroni, V.; Lagouvardos, K.

    2015-01-01

    In this work the impact of topography on the distribution and the amount of precipitation in Epirus, NW Greece is investigated, during the cold period of the year. A precipitation event with typical wintertime characteristics is considered. In the selected case, extended and heavy precipitation over Epirus is caused by a low pressure system centred northwest of Epirus and moving southeastwards, generating southerly winds over the Ionian Sea. The case is simulated by applying the numerical meteorological model MM5 in a high resolution grid (2 × 2km). Various sensitivity tests are performed, searching for the model initialization time and the convective parameterization scheme (CPS) leading to the best simulation of the observed event. Then, the model is applied again incorporating modified data of topography, in order to study the differentiations in the fields of the most important meteorological parameters, which are directly related with precipitation. The topography is modified with two ways: either by reducing the height of the mountains (type RT) or by elevating the terrain height (type ET). The results show that in the RT type, the precipitation field appears more homogeneous, with weaker maxima on the windward sides and above the mountain ridges. As a consequence, less rain falls in these areas and humid air passes easier to the lee sides reducing rain shadows. In the ET type, rain increases in the windward coastal zone of Epirus while it is reduced in the inland areas where less humid air is available. Generally, the modification of topography changes the flows near the surface, causing a displacement of the convergence zones and thus a new distribution of vertical velocities, which, combined with the new water vapour field, has a direct impact on precipitation.

  18. Reproducibility of precipitation distributions over extratropical continental regions in the CMIP5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirota, Nagio; Takayabu, Yukari

    2013-04-01

    Reproducibility of precipitation distributions over extratropical continental regions in the CMIP5 Nagio Hirota1,2 and Yukari N. Takayabu2 (1) National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) (2) Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (AORI), the University of Tokyo Reproducibility of precipitation distributions over extratropical continental regions by CMIP5 climate models in their historical runs are evaluated, in comparison with GPCP(V2.2), CMAP(V0911), daily gridded gauge data APHRODITE. Surface temperature, cloud radiative forcing, and atmospheric circulations are also compared with observations of CRU-UEA, CERES, and ERA-interim/ERA40/JRA reanalysis data. It is shown that many CMIP5 models underestimate and overestimate summer precipitation over West and East Eurasia, respectively. These precipitation biases correspond to moisture transport associated with a cyclonic circulation bias over the whole continent of Eurasia. Meanwhile, many models underestimate cloud over the Eurasian continent, and associated shortwave cloud radiative forcing result in a significant warm bias. Evaporation feedback amplify the warm bias over West Eurasia. These processes consistently explain the precipitation biases over the Erasian continent in summer. We also examined reproducibility of winter precipitation, but robust results are not obtained yet due to the large uncertainty in observation associated with the adjustment of snow measurement in windy condition. Better observational data sets are necessary for further model validation. Acknowledgment: This study is supported by the PMM RA of JAXA, Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) Program by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan, and Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (A-1201) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

  19. Responses of European precipitation distributions and regimes to different blocking locations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa, Pedro M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Barriopedro, David; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.

    2017-02-01

    In this work we performed an analysis on the impacts of blocking episodes on seasonal and annual European precipitation and the associated physical mechanisms. Distinct domains were considered in detail taking into account different blocking center positions spanning between the Atlantic and western Russia. Significant positive precipitation anomalies are found for southernmost areas while generalized negative anomalies (up to 75 % in some areas) occur in large areas of central and northern Europe. This dipole of anomalies is reversed when compared to that observed during episodes of strong zonal flow conditions. We illustrate that the location of the maximum precipitation anomalies follows quite well the longitudinal positioning of the blocking centers and discuss regional and seasonal differences in the precipitation responses. To better understand the precipitation anomalies, we explore the blocking influence on cyclonic activity. The results indicate a split of the storm-tracks north and south of blocking systems, leading to an almost complete reduction of cyclonic centers in northern and central Europe and increases in southern areas, where cyclone frequency doubles during blocking episodes. However, the underlying processes conductive to the precipitation anomalies are distinct between northern and southern European regions, with a significant role of atmospheric instability in southern Europe, and moisture availability as the major driver at higher latitudes. This distinctive underlying process is coherent with the characteristic patterns of latent heat release from the ocean associated with blocked and strong zonal flow patterns. We also analyzed changes in the full range of the precipitation distribution of several regional sectors during blocked and zonal days. Results show that precipitation reductions in the areas under direct blocking influence are driven by a substantial drop in the frequency of moderate rainfall classes. Contrarily, southwards of

  20. Temporal and spatial distributions of δ18O and δ2H in precipitation in Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagavciuc, Viorica; Bădăluță, Carmen-Andreea; Perșoiu, Aurel

    2015-04-01

    Stable isotope ratios of meteoric water have an important role in climatic, paleoclimatic, hydrological and meteorological studies. While such data are available from most of Europe, so far, in Romania (East Central Europe), no systematic study of the stable isotopic composition of precipitation exists. In this context, the aim of this study is to analyze the isotopic composition of rainwater, its temporal and spatial distribution, the identification of the main factors influencing these variations and the creation of the first map of spatial distribution of stable isotopes in precipitation in Romania. Between March 2012 and March 2014 we have collected monthly samples from 22 stations in Romania, which were subsequently analyzed for their δ18O and δ2H at the Stable Isotopes Laboratory, Stefan cel Mare University, Suceava, Romania. Precipitation in W and NW Romania plot along the GMWL, while those in the East are slightly below it, on an evaporative trend. The LMWL for Romania is defined as δ2H=7,27*δ18O + 6,92. The W-E gradient in the distribution of δ18O and δ2H are less marked than the N-S ones, with local influences dominating in areas of strong evaporation (intramountain basins, rain-shadow areas etc). In SW, and especially in autumn and winter, Meditteranean cyclones carry moisture from the Eastern Mediterranean, the δ18O and δ2H values in precipitation in the area plotting between the GMWL and the Eastern Mediterranean Meteoric Water Line. The isotopic composition of rainwater in Romania correlates well with air temperature, and is influenced to a lesser extent by other factors such as the amount of precipitation, topography configuration, the effect of continentalism and season of the year.

  1. Global auroral conductance distribution due to electron and proton precipitation from IMAGE-FUV observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Coumans

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available The Far Ultraviolet (FUV imaging system on board the IMAGE satellite provides a global view of the north auroral region in three spectral channels, including the SI12 camera sensitive to Doppler shifted Lyman-α emission. FUV images are used to produce instantaneous maps of electron mean energy and energy fluxes for precipitated protons and electrons. We describe a method to calculate ionospheric Hall and Pedersen conductivities induced by auroral proton and electron ionization based on a model of interaction of auroral particles with the atmosphere. Different assumptions on the energy spectral distribution for electrons and protons are compared. Global maps of ionospheric conductances due to instantaneous observation of precipitating protons are calculated. The contribution of auroral protons in the total conductance induced by both types of auroral particles is also evaluated and the importance of proton precipitation is evaluated. This method is well adapted to analyze the time evolution of ionospheric conductances due to precipitating particles over the auroral region or in particular sectors. Results are illustrated with conductance maps of the north polar region obtained during four periods with different activity levels. It is found that the proton contribution to conductance is relatively higher during quiet periods than during substorms. The proton contribution is higher in the period before the onset and strongly decreases during the expansion phase of substorms. During a substorm which occurred on 28 April 2001, a region of strong proton precipitation is observed with SI12 around 14:00MLT at ~75° MLAT. Calculation of conductances in this sector shows that neglecting the protons contribution would produce a large error. We discuss possible effects of the proton precipitation on electron precipitation in auroral arcs. The increase in the ionospheric conductivity, induced by a former proton precipitation can reduce the potential drop

  2. Global auroral conductance distribution due to electron and proton precipitation from IMAGE-FUV observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Coumans

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available The Far Ultraviolet (FUV imaging system on board the IMAGE satellite provides a global view of the north auroral region in three spectral channels, including the SI12 camera sensitive to Doppler shifted Lyman-α emission. FUV images are used to produce instantaneous maps of electron mean energy and energy fluxes for precipitated protons and electrons. We describe a method to calculate ionospheric Hall and Pedersen conductivities induced by auroral proton and electron ionization based on a model of interaction of auroral particles with the atmosphere. Different assumptions on the energy spectral distribution for electrons and protons are compared. Global maps of ionospheric conductances due to instantaneous observation of precipitating protons are calculated. The contribution of auroral protons in the total conductance induced by both types of auroral particles is also evaluated and the importance of proton precipitation is evaluated. This method is well adapted to analyze the time evolution of ionospheric conductances due to precipitating particles over the auroral region or in particular sectors. Results are illustrated with conductance maps of the north polar region obtained during four periods with different activity levels. It is found that the proton contribution to conductance is relatively higher during quiet periods than during substorms. The proton contribution is higher in the period before the onset and strongly decreases during the expansion phase of substorms. During a substorm which occurred on 28 April 2001, a region of strong proton precipitation is observed with SI12 around 14:00MLT at ~75° MLAT. Calculation of conductances in this sector shows that neglecting the protons contribution would produce a large error. We discuss possible effects of the proton precipitation on electron precipitation in auroral arcs. The increase in the ionospheric conductivity, induced by a former proton precipitation can reduce the potential drop

  3. A Study on the Selection of Optimal Probability Distributions for Analyzing of Extreme Precipitation Events over the Republic of Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hansu; Choi, Youngeun

    2014-05-01

    This study determined the optimal statistical probability distributions to estimate maximum probability precipitation in the Republic of Korea and examined whether there were any distinct changes on distribution types and extreme precipitation characteristics. Generalized Pareto distribution, and three parameter Burr distribution were most selected distributions for annual maximum series in the Republic of Korea. Furthermore, in the seasonal basis, the most selected distributions was three parameter Dagum distribution for spring, three parameter Burr distribution for summer, generalized Pareto distribution for autumn, three parameter log logistic distribution, generalized Pareto distribution and log-Pearson type III distribution for winter. Maximum probability precipitation was derived from selected optimal probability distributions and compared with that from Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs(MOLTMA). Maximum probability precipitation in this study was greater than that of MOLTMA as the duration time and return periods increased. This difference was statistically significant when apply Wilcoxon signed rank test. Because of different distributions, as the return period is longer, greater maximum probability precipitation value were estimated. Annual maximum series from 1973 to 2012 showed that the median was the highest in the south coastal region, but as a duration time was getting longer, Seoul, Gyeonggido, and Gangwondo had higher median values, which located in the central part of Korea. The months of annual maximum series occurrence were concentrated between June and September. Typhoons affected on annual maximum series occurrence in September. Seasonal maximum probability precipitation was greater in most of the south coastal region, and Seoul, Gyeonggido and Gangwondo had greater maximum probability precipitation in summer. Gangwondo had greater maximum probability precipitation in autumn while Ulleung and Daegwallyeong had a greater one in

  4. Winter precipitation particle size distribution measurement by Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Gwo-Jong; Kleinkort, Cameron; Bringi, V. N.; Notaroš, Branislav M.

    2017-12-01

    From the radar meteorology viewpoint, the most important properties for quantitative precipitation estimation of winter events are 3D shape, size, and mass of precipitation particles, as well as the particle size distribution (PSD). In order to measure these properties precisely, optical instruments may be the best choice. The Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera (MASC) is a relatively new instrument equipped with three high-resolution cameras to capture the winter precipitation particle images from three non-parallel angles, in addition to measuring the particle fall speed using two pairs of infrared motion sensors. However, the results from the MASC so far are usually presented as monthly or seasonally, and particle sizes are given as histograms, no previous studies have used the MASC for a single storm study, and no researchers use MASC to measure the PSD. We propose the methodology for obtaining the winter precipitation PSD measured by the MASC, and present and discuss the development, implementation, and application of the new technique for PSD computation based on MASC images. Overall, this is the first study of the MASC-based PSD. We present PSD MASC experiments and results for segments of two snow events to demonstrate the performance of our PSD algorithm. The results show that the self-consistency of the MASC measured single-camera PSDs is good. To cross-validate PSD measurements, we compare MASC mean PSD (averaged over three cameras) with the collocated 2D Video Disdrometer, and observe good agreements of the two sets of results.

  5. The roles of convective entrainment in spatial distributions and temporal variations of precipitation over tropical oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirota, N.; Takayabu, Y. N.; Watanabe, M.; Kimoto, M.; Chikira, M.

    2013-12-01

    This study shows that a proper treatment of convective entrainment is essential in determining spatial distributions and temporal variations of precipitation by numerical experiments. They have performed and compared four experiments with different entrainment characteristics: a control (Ctl), no entrainment (NoEnt), original Arakawa Schubert (AS), and AS with simple empirical suppression of convection (ASRH). The fractional entrainment rate of AS and ASRH are constant for each cloud type and are very small near cloud base compared to Ctl, in which half of buoyancy-generated energy is consumed by the entrainment. Ctl well reproduces the spatial and temporal variations, whereas NoEnt and AS, which are very similar to each other, significantly underestimated the variations with the so-called the double ITCZ problem. The enhanced variations in Ctl are due to the larger entrainment that strengthens the coupling of convection and free tropospheric humidity. Time variations are also more realistic in Ctl; mid-height convection moistens mid-troposphere and large precipitation events occur after sufficient moisture is available. In contrast, deep convection is more frequent but with smaller precipitation amount in NoEnt and AS. ASRH shows smaller spatial but excessive temporal variations suggesting that its empirical suppression condition is too simple and a more sophisticated formulation is required for more realistic precipitation variations. This study was supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (GRENE), and by the Ministry of the Environment (2A-1201), Japan.

  6. A non-random variation of monthly average temperatures and precipitation quantities in Romania during the period 2009-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlad D. MIRCOV

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Within this study we reflect non-randomness in the series of data concerning monthly average temperature and precipitation values registered in Romania during the period 2009-2012. We identified the slow increase in the monthly average temperature with 0.040C/months and a low decrease of average precipitation quantity with 0.29 mm/month. We also revealed that monthly average temperature and precipitation quantities series of data exposed behaviour close to Brown noise. The complex nature of the climate system and the unpredictability of weather are also reflected.

  7. Particle size distribution effects on gas-particle mass transfer within electrostatic precipitators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clack, Herek L

    2006-06-15

    Varying degrees of mercury capture and transformation have been reported across electrostatic precipitators (ESPs). Previous analyses have shown that the dominant mass transfer mechanism responsible for mercury capture within ESPs is gas-particle mass transfer during particulate collection. Whereas previous analyses assumed dispersions of uniform size, the present analysis reveals the effects of polydispersity on both gas-particle mass transfer and particle collection within an ESP. The analysis reveals that the idealized monodisperse particle size distribution provides the highest gas-particle mass transfer but results in the lowest particle collection efficiency (% mass). As the particle size distribution broadens, gas-particle mass transfer decreases and particle collection efficiency increases. The results suggest that more than just reporting mean particle diameter provided by the sorbent manufacturer, pilot- and field-tests of sorbent injection for mercury emissions control need to experimentally measure the particle size distribution of the sorbent as it is injected in order to facilitate interpretation of their results.

  8. On bounds in Poisson approximation for distributions of independent negative-binomial distributed random variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Tran Loc; Giang, Le Truong

    2016-01-01

    Using the Stein-Chen method some upper bounds in Poisson approximation for distributions of row-wise triangular arrays of independent negative-binomial distributed random variables are established in this note.

  9. Hybrid computer technique yields random signal probability distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, W. D.

    1965-01-01

    Hybrid computer determines the probability distributions of instantaneous and peak amplitudes of random signals. This combined digital and analog computer system reduces the errors and delays of manual data analysis.

  10. Randomized distributed access to mutually exclusive resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moshe Dror

    2005-01-01

    they generally suffer from the need for extensive interagent communication. In this paper, we develop a randomized approach to make multiagent resource-allocation decisions with the objective of maximizing expected concurrency measured by the number of the active agents. This approach does not assume a centralized mechanism and has no need for interagent communication. Compared to existing autonomous-decentralized-decision-making (ADDM-based approaches for resource-allocation, our work emphasizes achieving the highest degree of agent autonomy and is able to handle more general resource requirements.

  11. Seasonal variations and horizontal distribution of precipitation over extratropical continental regions in CMIP5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamada, A.; Hirota, N.; Takayabu, Y. N.

    2012-12-01

    Seasonal variations and horizontal distribution of precipitation over extratropical continental regions by the CMIP5 climate models in their historical runs are evaluated, in comparison with GPCP, CMAP, daily gridded gauge data APHRODITE, and with various reanalysis data. Eight regions are selected over the Eastern Europe, northwestern Russia, Mongolia, northeastern Russia, Alaska, western US, eastern Canada, and eastern US. It is shown that precipitation reproducibility over extratropical continental regions in climate models widely varies depending on regions and seasons, probably attributed to the matching of the precipitation characteristics and treatments of physical processes in the climate models. In some regions, additional treatments of physical processes such as those implemented in the Earth System Models improve the result, while in other regions, horizontal resolution looks essential for the improvements. The reproducibility also varies depending on seasons in a same region, for example, differs between summer and winter in the Eastern Europe. It is also noted that estimated rain amounts considerably vary among GPCP, CMAP, and APHRODITE. Acknowledgment: This study is supported by the 6th GPM/TRMM RA of JAXA, Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) Program by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan, and Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (A-1201) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

  12. Characterizations of Distributions of Ratios of Certain Independent Random Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamedani G.G.

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Various characterizations of the distributions of the ratio of two independent gamma and exponential random variables as well as that of two independent Weibull random variables are presented. These characterizations are based, on a simple relationship between two truncated moments ; on hazard function ; and on functions of order statistics.

  13. The response of a simulated mesoscale convective system to increased aerosol pollution: Part I: Precipitation intensity, distribution, and efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clavner, Michal; Cotton, William R.; van den Heever, Susan C.; Saleeby, Stephen M.; Pierce, Jeffery R.

    2018-01-01

    Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) are important contributors to rainfall in the High Plains of the United States and elsewhere in the world. It is therefore of interest to understand how different aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) may impact the total amount, rates and spatial distribution of precipitation produced by MCSs. In this study, different aerosol concentrations and their effects on precipitation produced by an MCS are examined by simulating the 8 May 2009 "Super-Derecho" MCS using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with sophisticated aerosol and microphysical parameterizations. Three simulations were conducted that differed only in the initial concentration, spatial distribution, and chemical composition of aerosols. Aerosol fields were derived from the output of GEOS-Chem, a 3D chemical transport numerical model. Results from the RAMS simulations show that the total domain precipitation was not significantly affected by variations in aerosol concentrations, however, the pollution aerosols altered the precipitation characteristics. The more polluted simulations exhibited higher precipitation rates, higher bulk precipitation efficiency, a larger area with heavier precipitation, and a smaller area with lighter precipitation. These differences arose as a result of aerosols enhancing precipitation in the convective region of the MCS while suppressing precipitation from the MCS's stratiform-anvil. In the convective region, several processes likely contributed to an increase of precipitation. First, owing to the very humid environment of this storm, the enhanced amount of cloud water available to be collected overwhelmed the reduction in precipitation efficiency associated with the aerosol-induced production of smaller droplets which led to a net increase in the conversion of cloud droplets to precipitation. Second, higher aerosol concentrations led to invigoration of convective updrafts which

  14. Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lee, Jaechoul; Wehner, Michael F.; Collow, Allison

    2016-01-01

    This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that

  15. On Distributed Computation in Noisy Random Planar Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Kanoria, Y.; Manjunath, D.

    2007-01-01

    We consider distributed computation of functions of distributed data in random planar networks with noisy wireless links. We present a new algorithm for computation of the maximum value which is order optimal in the number of transmissions and computation time.We also adapt the histogram computation algorithm of Ying et al to make the histogram computation time optimal.

  16. Asymptotic distribution of products of sums of independent random ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    453007 Henan, China. E-mail: bigduckwyl@163.com; duhongxia24@gmail.com. MS received 7 April 2012; revised 10 October 2012. Abstract. In the paper we consider the asymptotic distribution of products of weighted sums of independent random variables. Keywords. Asymptotic distribution; products of sums. 1.

  17. SIZE REDUCTION OF ELECTROSTATIC PRECIPITATOR CHAMBER BY MODIFICATION OF GAS FLOW DISTRIBUTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beata Sładkowska-Rybka

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Electrostatic precipitators (ESP are one of the most effective devices for particulate emission control, removing from the exhaust gases even 99,9 % of dust particles. The collection efficiency of the ESP depends on a number of factors: mechanical design and electrical operating parameters, physical and chemical properties of cleaned gas, characteristic of dust particles suspended in the gas. Among the most important factors affecting the ESP effectiveness, the velocity and the distribution of gas flow in the ESP chamber should be also indicated. Significant increase in ESP efficiency is possible thanks to the application of Skewed Gas Flow Technology (SGFT. In this paper the computer simulations results are shown. Authors investigated the possibility of ESP chamber size reduction by modification of gas flow distribution.

  18. Continuous Time Random Walks with memory and financial distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montero, Miquel; Masoliver, Jaume

    2017-11-01

    We study financial distributions from the perspective of Continuous Time Random Walks with memory. We review some of our previous developments and apply them to financial problems. We also present some new models with memory that can be useful in characterizing tendency effects which are inherent in most markets. We also briefly study the effect on return distributions of fractional behaviors in the distribution of pausing times between successive transactions.

  19. Fully-distributed randomized cooperation in wireless sensor networks

    KAUST Repository

    Bader, Ahmed

    2015-01-07

    When marrying randomized distributed space-time coding (RDSTC) to geographical routing, new performance horizons can be created. In order to reach those horizons however, routing protocols must evolve to operate in a fully distributed fashion. In this letter, we expose a technique to construct a fully distributed geographical routing scheme in conjunction with RDSTC. We then demonstrate the performance gains of this novel scheme by comparing it to one of the prominent classical schemes.

  20. Using Python to generate AHPS-based precipitation simulations over CONUS using Amazon distributed computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machalek, P.; Kim, S. M.; Berry, R. D.; Liang, A.; Small, T.; Brevdo, E.; Kuznetsova, A.

    2012-12-01

    We describe how the Climate Corporation uses Python and Clojure, a language impleneted on top of Java, to generate climatological forecasts for precipitation based on the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) radar based daily precipitation measurements. A 2-year-long forecasts is generated on each of the ~650,000 CONUS land based 4-km AHPS grids by constructing 10,000 ensembles sampled from a 30-year reconstructed AHPS history for each grid. The spatial and temporal correlations between neighboring AHPS grids and the sampling of the analogues are handled by Python. The parallelization for all the 650,000 CONUS stations is further achieved by utilizing the MAP-REDUCE framework (http://code.google.com/edu/parallel/mapreduce-tutorial.html). Each full scale computational run requires hundreds of nodes with up to 8 processors each on the Amazon Elastic MapReduce (http://aws.amazon.com/elasticmapreduce/) distributed computing service resulting in 3 terabyte datasets. We further describe how we have productionalized a monthly run of the simulations process at full scale of the 4km AHPS grids and how the resultant terabyte sized datasets are handled.

  1. Skewness as measure of the invariance of instantaneous renormalized drop diameter distributions – Part 2: Orographic precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ignaccolo

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Here we use the skewness parameter, and the procedure developed in the companion paper (Ignaccolo and De Michele, 2012, to investigate the variability of instantaneous renormalized spectra of rain drop diameter in presence of orographic precipitation. Disdrometer data, available at Bodega Bay and Cazadero, California, are analyzed either as a whole, or as divided (using the bright band echo in precipitation intervals weakly and strongly influenced by orography, and compared to results obtained at Darwin, Australia. We find that also at Bodega Bay and Cazadero exists a most common distribution of the skewness values of instantaneous spectra of drop diameter, but peaked at values greater than 0.64, found at Darwin. No appreciable differences are found in the skewness distributions of precipitation weakly and strongly influenced by orography. However the renormalized drop diameter spectra of precipitation with strong orographic component have fatter right tail than precipitation with a weaker orographic component. The differences between orographic and non-orographic precipitation are investigated within the parametric space represented by number of drops, mean value and standard deviation of drop diameter. A filter is developed which is able to identify 1 min time intervals during which precipitation is mostly of orographic origin.

  2. Temperature and precipitation shape the distribution of harmful cyanobacteria in subtropical lotic and lentic ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haakonsson, Signe; Rodríguez-Gallego, Lorena; Somma, Andrea; Bonilla, Sylvia

    2017-12-31

    Cyanobacterial blooms are expected to become more frequent in freshwaters globally due to eutrophication and climate change effects. However, our knowledge about cyanobacterial biogeography in the subtropics, particularly in lotic ecosystems, is still very limited and the relationship of blooms to temperature and precipitation remains unclear. We took advantage of a comprehensive database of field data compiled over several years (1997 to 2015) to compare cyanobacteria biomass and distribution between lentic and lotic subtropical freshwaters (36 ecosystems, 30°-35°S) and to investigate the role of water temperature and precipitation as significant predictors in eutrophic ecosystems. A filamentous Nostocales, Dolichospermum (Anabaena), was the most widely distributed and frequent genus in the region of the study, followed by the colonial Microcystis, supporting observations of a global latitudinal pattern. Similar total cyanobacteria biovolumes (TCB) were found in lentic and lotic ecosystems, but the proportion of Dolichospermum was higher in lotic ecosystems. Using generalized linear models (GLMs), we found that temperature and rainfall explained 27% of the variation in TCB in lotic ecosystems, while temperature explained 19 and 28% of Dolichospermum and Microcystis biovolume, respectively. In lentic ecosystems, accumulated rainfall explained 34% of the variation of Microcystis biovolume while temperature explained 64%. Our results imply that the increase in extreme meteorological events and temperature predicted by climate models will promote increasingly severe cyanobacterial blooms in eutrophic subtropical freshwaters. Our analysis provides new information about the occurrence of bloom-forming cyanobacteria for southeastern South America and thus fills an important knowledge gap for subtropical freshwaters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Maximum Likelihood and Bayes Estimation in Randomly Censored Geometric Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hare Krishna

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we study the geometric distribution under randomly censored data. Maximum likelihood estimators and confidence intervals based on Fisher information matrix are derived for the unknown parameters with randomly censored data. Bayes estimators are also developed using beta priors under generalized entropy and LINEX loss functions. Also, Bayesian credible and highest posterior density (HPD credible intervals are obtained for the parameters. Expected time on test and reliability characteristics are also analyzed in this article. To compare various estimates developed in the article, a Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out. Finally, for illustration purpose, a randomly censored real data set is discussed.

  4. A study on raindrop size distribution variability in before and after landfall precipitations of tropical cyclones observed over southern India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janapati, Jayalakshmi; seela, Balaji Kumar; Reddy M., Venkatrami; Reddy K., Krishna; Lin, Pay-Liam; Rao T., Narayana; Liu, Chian-Yi

    2017-06-01

    Raindrop size distribution (RSD) characteristics in before landfall (BLF) and after landfall (ALF) of three tropical cyclones (JAL, THANE, and NILAM) induced precipitations are investigated by using a laser-based (PARticleSIze and VELocity - PARSIVEL) disdrometer at two different locations [Kadapa (14.47°N, 78.82°E) and Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E)] in semi-arid region of southern India. In both BLF and ALF precipitations of these three cyclones, convective precipitations have higher mass weighted mean diameter (Dm) and lower normalized intercept parameter (log10Nw) values than stratiform precipitations. The radar reflectivity (Z) and rain rate (R) relations (Z=A*Rb) showed distinct variations in BLF and ALF precipitations of three cyclones. BLF precipitation of JAL cyclone has a higher Dm than ALF precipitation. Whereas, for THANE and NILAM cyclones ALF precipitations have higher Dm than BLF. The Dm values of three cyclones (both in BLF and ALF) are smaller than the Dm values of the other (Atlantic and Pacific) oceanic cyclones. Interaction of different regions (eyewall, inner rainbands, and outer rainbands) of cyclones with the environment and underlying surface led to RSD variations between BLF and ALF precipitations through different microphysical (collision-coalescence, breakup, evaporation, and riming) processes. The immediate significance of the present work is that (i) it contributes to our understanding of cyclone RSD in BLF and ALF precipitations, and (ii) it provides the useful information for quantitative estimation of rainfall from Doppler weather radar observations.

  5. A simple consensus algorithm for distributed averaging in random ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    guaranteed convergence with this simple algorithm. Keywords. Sensor networks; random geographical networks; distributed averaging; consensus algorithms. PACS Nos 89.75.Hc; 89.75.Fb; 89.20.Ff. 1. Introduction. Wireless sensor networks are increasingly used in many applications ranging from envi- ronmental to ...

  6. Random graphs with arbitrary degree distributions and their applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, M. E. J.; Strogatz, S. H.; Watts, D. J.

    2001-08-01

    Recent work on the structure of social networks and the internet has focused attention on graphs with distributions of vertex degree that are significantly different from the Poisson degree distributions that have been widely studied in the past. In this paper we develop in detail the theory of random graphs with arbitrary degree distributions. In addition to simple undirected, unipartite graphs, we examine the properties of directed and bipartite graphs. Among other results, we derive exact expressions for the position of the phase transition at which a giant component first forms, the mean component size, the size of the giant component if there is one, the mean number of vertices a certain distance away from a randomly chosen vertex, and the average vertex-vertex distance within a graph. We apply our theory to some real-world graphs, including the world-wide web and collaboration graphs of scientists and Fortune 1000 company directors. We demonstrate that in some cases random graphs with appropriate distributions of vertex degree predict with surprising accuracy the behavior of the real world, while in others there is a measurable discrepancy between theory and reality, perhaps indicating the presence of additional social structure in the network that is not captured by the random graph.

  7. Ultrathin wide bandwidth metamaterial absorber using randomly distributed scatterers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadi, Farzad; Ida, Nathan

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, a broadband, ultrathin metamaterial absorber (MA) using randomly distributed scatterers is presented. Each scattering element consists of two parallel strips. These elements can either be isolated or they may overlap with nearby elements. Three different randomly positioned structures are investigated for normal incident angle as well as oblique incident angles showing that these MAs can provide broadband absorption for all cases. The results presented here coincide with some previous works. Each structure obviously has different absorption spectrum and FWHM since the coupling between the randomly positioned scatterers is different in each case. The coupling between neighboring isolated and clustered scatterers form many resonating modes resulting in broadband absorption. The distribution of the electromagnetic fields are analyzed to obtain the physical behavior of the absorber. This shows that promising results can still be obtained for MAs when there is a significant tolerance distance between scatterers due to fabrication errors in micro and nanoscale metadevices.

  8. Nonparametric Estimation of Distributions in Random Effects Models

    KAUST Repository

    Hart, Jeffrey D.

    2011-01-01

    We propose using minimum distance to obtain nonparametric estimates of the distributions of components in random effects models. A main setting considered is equivalent to having a large number of small datasets whose locations, and perhaps scales, vary randomly, but which otherwise have a common distribution. Interest focuses on estimating the distribution that is common to all datasets, knowledge of which is crucial in multiple testing problems where a location/scale invariant test is applied to every small dataset. A detailed algorithm for computing minimum distance estimates is proposed, and the usefulness of our methodology is illustrated by a simulation study and an analysis of microarray data. Supplemental materials for the article, including R-code and a dataset, are available online. © 2011 American Statistical Association.

  9. Randomized Algorithms for Tracking Distributed Count, Frequencies, and Ranks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huang, Zengfeng; Yi, Ke; Zhang, Qin

    2011-01-01

    $-approximation of their sum $n=\\sum_i n_i$ continuously at all times, using minimum communication. While the deterministic communication complexity of the problem is $\\Theta(k/\\eps \\cdot \\log N)$, where $N$ is the final value of $n$ when the tracking finishes, we show that with randomization, the communication cost can......We show that randomization can lead to significant improvements for a few fundamental problems in distributed tracking. Our basis is the {\\em count-tracking} problem, where there are $k$ players, each holding a counter $n_i$ that gets incremented over time, and the goal is to track an $\\eps...

  10. Randomized algorithms for tracking distributed count, frequencies, and ranks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zengfeng, Huang; Ke, Yi; Zhang, Qin

    2012-01-01

    of their sum n=∑ini continuously at all times, using minimum communication. While the deterministic communication complexity of the problem is θ(k/ε • log N), where N is the final value of n when the tracking finishes, we show that with randomization, the communication cost can be reduced to θ(√k/ε • log N......We show that randomization can lead to significant improvements for a few fundamental problems in distributed tracking. Our basis is the count-tracking problem, where there are k players, each holding a counter ni that gets incremented over time, and the goal is to track an ∑-approximation...

  11. Computer routines for probability distributions, random numbers, and related functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, W.

    1983-01-01

    Use of previously coded and tested subroutines simplifies and speeds up program development and testing. This report presents routines that can be used to calculate various probability distributions and other functions of importance in statistical hydrology. The routines are designed as general-purpose Fortran subroutines and functions to be called from user-written main progress. The probability distributions provided include the beta, chi-square, gamma, Gaussian (normal), Pearson Type III (tables and approximation), and Weibull. Also provided are the distributions of the Grubbs-Beck outlier test, Kolmogorov 's and Smirnov 's D, Student 's t, noncentral t (approximate), and Snedecor F. Other mathematical functions include the Bessel function, I sub o, gamma and log-gamma functions, error functions, and exponential integral. Auxiliary services include sorting and printer-plotting. Random number generators for uniform and normal numbers are provided and may be used with some of the above routines to generate numbers from other distributions. (USGS)

  12. Peer-Assisted Content Distribution with Random Linear Network Coding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hundebøll, Martin; Ledet-Pedersen, Jeppe; Sluyterman, Georg

    2014-01-01

    Peer-to-peer networks constitute a widely used, cost-effective and scalable technology to distribute bandwidth-intensive content. The technology forms a great platform to build distributed cloud storage without the need of a central provider. However, the majority of todays peer-to-peer systems...... require complex algorithms to schedule what parts of obtained content to forward to other peers. Random Linear Network Coding can greatly simplify these algorithm by removing the need for coordination between the distributing nodes. In this paper we propose and evaluate the structure of the BRONCO peer-to-peer....... Furthermore, we evaluate the performance of different parameters and suggest a suitable trade-off between CPU utilization and network overhead. Within the limitations of the used test environment, we have shown that networkc coding is usable in peer-assisted content distribution and we suggest further...

  13. Skewness as measure of the invariance of instantaneous renormalized drop diameter distributions – Part 1: Convective vs. stratiform precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ignaccolo

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the variability of the shape of the renormalized drop diameter instantaneous distribution using of the third order central moment: the skewness. Disdrometer data, collected at Darwin Australia, are considered either as whole or as divided in convective and stratiform precipitation intervals. We show that in all cases the distribution of the skewness is strongly peaked around 0.64. This allows to identify a most common distribution of renormalized drop diameters and two main variations, one with larger and one with smaller skewness. The distributions shapes are independent from the stratiform vs. convective classification.

  14. Graphene materials having randomly distributed two-dimensional structural defects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kung, Harold H; Zhao, Xin; Hayner, Cary M; Kung, Mayfair C

    2013-10-08

    Graphene-based storage materials for high-power battery applications are provided. The storage materials are composed of vertical stacks of graphene sheets and have reduced resistance for Li ion transport. This reduced resistance is achieved by incorporating a random distribution of structural defects into the stacked graphene sheets, whereby the structural defects facilitate the diffusion of Li ions into the interior of the storage materials.

  15. Random generation of RNA secondary structures according to native distributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nebel Markus E

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Random biological sequences are a topic of great interest in genome analysis since, according to a powerful paradigm, they represent the background noise from which the actual biological information must differentiate. Accordingly, the generation of random sequences has been investigated for a long time. Similarly, random object of a more complicated structure like RNA molecules or proteins are of interest. Results In this article, we present a new general framework for deriving algorithms for the non-uniform random generation of combinatorial objects according to the encoding and probability distribution implied by a stochastic context-free grammar. Briefly, the framework extends on the well-known recursive method for (uniform random generation and uses the popular framework of admissible specifications of combinatorial classes, introducing weighted combinatorial classes to allow for the non-uniform generation by means of unranking. This framework is used to derive an algorithm for the generation of RNA secondary structures of a given fixed size. We address the random generation of these structures according to a realistic distribution obtained from real-life data by using a very detailed context-free grammar (that models the class of RNA secondary structures by distinguishing between all known motifs in RNA structure. Compared to well-known sampling approaches used in several structure prediction tools (such as SFold ours has two major advantages: Firstly, after a preprocessing step in time O(n2 for the computation of all weighted class sizes needed, with our approach a set of m random secondary structures of a given structure size n can be computed in worst-case time complexity Om⋅n⋅ log(n while other algorithms typically have a runtime in O(m⋅n2. Secondly, our approach works with integer arithmetic only which is faster and saves us from all the discomforting details of using floating point arithmetic with

  16. The role of precipitation type, intensity, and spatial distribution in source water quality after wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Sheila F.; Writer, Jeffrey H.; McCleskey, R. Blaine; Martin, Deborah A.

    2015-01-01

    Storms following wildfires are known to impair drinking water supplies in the southwestern United States, yet our understanding of the role of precipitation in post-wildfire water quality is far from complete. We quantitatively assessed water-quality impacts of different hydrologic events in the Colorado Front Range and found that for a three-year period, substantial hydrologic and geochemical responses downstream of a burned area were primarily driven by convective storms with a 30 min rainfall intensity >10 mm h−1. These storms, which typically occur several times each year in July–September, are often small in area, short-lived, and highly variable in intensity and geographic distribution. Thus, a rain gage network with high temporal resolution and spatial density, together with high-resolution stream sampling, are required to adequately characterize post-wildfire responses. We measured total suspended sediment, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nitrate, and manganese concentrations that were 10–156 times higher downstream of a burned area compared to upstream during relatively common (50% annual exceedance probability) rainstorms, and water quality was sufficiently impaired to pose water-treatment concerns. Short-term water-quality impairment was driven primarily by increased surface runoff during higher intensity convective storms that caused erosion in the burned area and transport of sediment and chemical constituents to streams. Annual sediment yields downstream of the burned area were controlled by storm events and subsequent remobilization, whereas DOC yields were closely linked to annual runoff and thus were more dependent on interannual variation in spring runoff. Nitrate yields were highest in the third year post-wildfire. Results from this study quantitatively demonstrate that water quality can be altered for several years after wildfire. Because the southwestern US is prone to wildfires and high-intensity rain storms, the role of storms in post

  17. The role of precipitation type, intensity, and spatial distribution in source water quality after wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Sheila F.; Writer, Jeffrey H.; Blaine McCleskey, R.; Martin, Deborah A.

    2015-08-01

    Storms following wildfires are known to impair drinking water supplies in the southwestern United States, yet our understanding of the role of precipitation in post-wildfire water quality is far from complete. We quantitatively assessed water-quality impacts of different hydrologic events in the Colorado Front Range and found that for a three-year period, substantial hydrologic and geochemical responses downstream of a burned area were primarily driven by convective storms with a 30 min rainfall intensity >10 mm h-1. These storms, which typically occur several times each year in July-September, are often small in area, short-lived, and highly variable in intensity and geographic distribution. Thus, a rain gage network with high temporal resolution and spatial density, together with high-resolution stream sampling, are required to adequately characterize post-wildfire responses. We measured total suspended sediment, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nitrate, and manganese concentrations that were 10-156 times higher downstream of a burned area compared to upstream during relatively common (50% annual exceedance probability) rainstorms, and water quality was sufficiently impaired to pose water-treatment concerns. Short-term water-quality impairment was driven primarily by increased surface runoff during higher intensity convective storms that caused erosion in the burned area and transport of sediment and chemical constituents to streams. Annual sediment yields downstream of the burned area were controlled by storm events and subsequent remobilization, whereas DOC yields were closely linked to annual runoff and thus were more dependent on interannual variation in spring runoff. Nitrate yields were highest in the third year post-wildfire. Results from this study quantitatively demonstrate that water quality can be altered for several years after wildfire. Because the southwestern US is prone to wildfires and high-intensity rain storms, the role of storms in post

  18. Landslide Susceptibility Mapping in Vertical Distribution Law of Precipitation Area: Case of the Xulong Hydropower Station Reservoir, Southwestern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Cao

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on landslide susceptibility analysis mapping of the Xulong hydropower station reservoir, which is located in the upstream of Jinsha River, a rapidly uplifting region of the Tibetan Plateau region. Nine factors were employed as landslide conditioning factors in landslide susceptibility mapping. These factors included the slope angle, slope aspect, curvature, geology, distance-to-fault, distance-to-river, vegetation, bedrock uplift and annual precipitation. The rapid bedrock uplift factor was represented by the slope angle. The eight factors were processed with the information content model. Since this area has a significant vertical distribution law of precipitation, the annual precipitation factor was analyzed separately. The analytic hierarchy process weighting method was used to calculate the weights of nine factors. Thus, this study proposed a component approach to combine the normalized eight-factor results with the normalized annual precipitation distribution results. Subsequently, the results were plotted in geographic information system (GIS and a landslide susceptibility map was produced. The evaluation accuracy analysis method was used as a validation approach. The landslide susceptibility classes were divided into four classes, including low, moderate, high and very high. The results show that the four susceptibility class ratios are 12.9%, 35.06%, 34.11%and 17.92% of the study area, respectively. The red belt in the high elevation area represents the very high susceptibility zones, which followed the vertical distribution law of precipitation. The prediction accuracy was 85.74%, which meant that the susceptibility map was confirmed to be reliable and reasonable. This susceptibility map may contribute to averting the landslide risk in the future construction of the Xulong hydropower station.

  19. 4D Imaging of Salt Precipitation during Evaporation from Saline Porous Media Influenced by the Particle Size Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norouzi Rad, M.; Shokri, N.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the physics of water evaporation from saline porous media is important in many processes such as evaporation from porous media, vegetation, plant growth, biodiversity in soil, and durability of building materials. To investigate the effect of particle size distribution on the dynamics of salt precipitation in saline porous media during evaporation, we applied X-ray micro-tomography technique. Six samples of quartz sand with different grain size distributions were used in the present study enabling us to constrain the effects of particle and pore sizes on salt precipitation patterns and dynamics. The pore size distributions were computed using the pore-scale X-ray images. The packed beds were saturated with NaCl solution of 3 Molal and the X-ray imaging was continued for one day with temporal resolution of 30 min resulting in pore scale information about the evaporation and precipitation dynamics. Our results show more precipitation at the early stage of the evaporation in the case of sand with the larger particle size due to the presence of fewer evaporation sites at the surface. The presence of more preferential evaporation sites at the surface of finer sands significantly modified the patterns and thickness of the salt crust deposited on the surface such that a thinner salt crust was formed in the case of sand with smaller particle size covering larger area at the surface as opposed to the thicker patchy crusts in samples with larger particle sizes. Our results provide new insights regarding the physics of salt precipitation in porous media during evaporation.

  20. Rainfall interception and distribution patterns of gross precipitation around an isolated Ficus benjamina tree in an urban area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guevara-Escobar, A.; González-Sosa, E.; Véliz-Chávez, C.; Ventura-Ramos, E.; Ramos-Salinas, M.

    2007-02-01

    SummaryInterception of rainfall by urban trees can be an important component of urban landscapes. This work evaluated rainfall interception and distribution patterns of gross precipitation around the canopy of a single evergreen tree Ficus benjamina (L.). Nineteen individual storms occurring from July to October, 2005, were analyzed. Total precipitation for the studied period was 152 mm representing 46% of the annual precipitation. Rainfall was partitioned as follows: 38.1% throughfall, 2.4% stemflow, and 59.5% interception by the tree canopy. Canopy saturation was estimated at 1.5 mm using a linear relationship between throughfall and stemflow. Average time for saturation of canopy was 19.5 min. The screen effect was important and accounted for 18.7% of the interception losses by the tree canopy alone. A kriging model was used to explore spatial distribution patterns of rainfall and the screen effect around the projected crown. The results indicated that the tree modifies the precipitation pattern around the tree and suggested that these patterns were similar among events.

  1. Random matrix approach to the distribution of genomic distance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexeev, Nikita; Zograf, Peter

    2014-08-01

    The cycle graph introduced by Bafna and Pevzner is an important tool for evaluating the distance between two genomes, that is, the minimal number of rearrangements needed to transform one genome into another. We interpret this distance in topological terms and relate it to the random matrix theory. Namely, the number of genomes at a given 2-break distance from a fixed one (the Hultman number) is represented by a coefficient in the genus expansion of a matrix integral over the space of complex matrices with the Gaussian measure. We study generating functions for the Hultman numbers and prove that the two-break distance distribution is asymptotically normal.

  2. Runoff production on a slope with randomly distributed infiltrabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouche, E.; Harel, M.

    2013-12-01

    Runoff generated on one- and two-dimensional slopes with randomly distributed infiltrability is studied in the queuing theory and connectivity frameworks. The equivalence between the runoff-runon equation and the customers waiting time in a single server queue provides a theoretical link between the statistical descriptions of infiltrability and that of runoff flow rate. Different distributions of infiltrability, representing soil heterogeneities at different scales, are considered. Numerical simulations validate these results and improve our understanding of runoff-runon process. All of the quantities describing the generation of runoff (runoff one-point statistics) and its organization into patterns (patterns statistics and connectivity) are studied as functions of rainfall rate and runoff dimensionality.

  3. Weight Distributions for Turbo Codes Using Random and Nonrandom Permutations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolinar, S.; Divsalar, D.

    1995-04-01

    This article takes a preliminary look at the weight distributions achievable for turbo codes using random, nonrandom, and semirandom permutations. Due to the recursiveness of the encoders, it is important to distinguish between self-terminating and non-self-terminating input sequences. The non-self-terminating sequences have little effect on decoder performance, because they accumulate high encoded weight until they are artificially terminated at the end of the block. From probabilistic arguments based on selecting the permutations randomly, it is concluded that the self-terminating weight-2 data sequences are the most important consideration in the design of the constituent codes; higher-weight self-terminating sequences have successively decreasing importance. Also, increasing the number of codes and, correspondingly, the number of permutations makes it more and more likely that the bad input sequences will be broken up by one or more of the permuters. It is possible to design nonrandom permutations that ensure that the minimum distance due to weight-2 input sequences grows roughly as p 2N, where N is the block length. However, these nonrandom permutations amplify the bad effects of higher-weight inputs, and as a result they are inferior in performance to randomly selected permutations. But there are "semirandom" permutations that perform nearly as well as the designed nonrandom permutations with respect to weight-2 input sequences and are not as susceptible to being foiled by higher-weight inputs.

  4. Identifying Anomality in Precipitation Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, P.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Safety, risk and economic analyses of engineering constructions such as storm sewer, street and urban drainage, and channel design are sensitive to precipitation storm properties. Whether the precipitation storm properties exhibit normal or anomalous characteristics remains obscure. In this study, we will decompose a precipitation time series as sequences of average storm intensity, storm duration and interstorm period to examine whether these sequences could be treated as a realization of a continuous time random walk with both "waiting times" (interstorm period) and "jump sizes" (average storm intensity and storm duration). Starting from this viewpoint, we will analyze the statistics of storm duration, interstorm period, and average storm intensity in four regions in southwestern United States. We will examine whether the probability distribution is temporal and spatial dependent. Finally, we will use fractional engine to capture the randomness in precipitation storms.

  5. Comparison Studies on the Observation of Raindrop Size Distribution in Strong Precipitation Frontal Case in Northern Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Pay-Liam; Chen, Ying-Jhen

    2015-04-01

    In the nighttime of 11th June 2012, a mature Mai-Yu front passed through northern Taiwan. The leading edge of front associated with southwesterly flow produced strong precipitation in a short time. The extreme rainfall event caused multiple areas flooding. In order to investigate the characteristic of drop size distribution (DSD) accompanied with this heavy rainfall event, we used an impact type Joss-Waldgovel disdrometer (JWD), a laser-optical OTT Parsivel disdrometer (Parsivel) and a two dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) collocated at NCU, and we also used three JWDs in FeiCui, NanGang and XiaYung to investigate the frontal precipitation. In the weak precipitation period, we found the concentration of small raindrops would be underestimated because the velocity detected by Parsivel is faster than the real situation. But we also made sure that before the strong precipitation happens, the three type disdrometers (JWD, 2DVD and Parsivel) operate consistently.During strong precipitation period, we found a significant DSD variation characteristic. As a convective cell passes, the concentration of medium to large drops increases in Parsivel, while decreases in JWD. Due to the limitation of instrument, Parsivel tended to overestimate the concentration of medium to large drops in the strong rainfall intensity. Comparing the rain drops concentration with the rain rate varies with time, Parsivel showed a good agreement but JWD even did not get the most significant characteristic as the strongest rainfall occurred. The rain rates of JWD and Parsivel varied in the same trend, but compared the rain rates with the rain gauge observation in the 10 m tower at NCU, both of them showed obvious underestimation. We suspected the limitation of instrument made the rain rate underestimated.

  6. Fitting and Analyzing Randomly Censored Geometric Extreme Exponential Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Yameen Danish

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the Bayesian analysis of two-parameter geometric extreme exponential distribution with randomly censored data. The continuous conjugate prior of the scale and shape parameters of the model does not exist while computing the Bayes estimates, it is assumed that the scale and shape parameters have independent gamma priors. It is seen that the closed-form expressions for the Bayes estimators are not possible; we suggest the Lindley’s approximation to obtain the Bayes estimates. However, the Bayesian credible intervals cannot be constructed while using this method, we propose Gibbs sampling to obtain the Bayes estimates and also to construct the Bayesian credible intervals. Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to observe the behavior of the Bayes estimators and also to compare with the maximum likelihood estimators. One real data analysis is performed for illustration.

  7. The rising power of random distributed feedback fiber laser

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Pu; Ye, Jun; Xu, Jiangming; Zhang, Hanwei; Huang, Long; Wu, Jian; Xiao, Hu; Leng, Jinyong

    2018-01-01

    Random distributed feedback fiber lasers (RDFFL) are now attracting more and more attentions for their unique cavity-free, mode-free and structural simplicity features and broadband application potentials in many fields, such as long distance sensing, speck free imaging, nonlinear frequency conversion as well as new pump source. In this talk, we will review the recent research progresses on high power RDFFLs. We have achieved (1) More than 400 W RDFFL with nearly Gaussian beam profile based on crucial employment of fiber mismatching architecture. (2) High power RDFFL with specialized optical property that include: high power narrow-band RDFFL, hundred-watt level linearly-polarized RDFFL, hundred-watt level high-order RDFFL. (3) Power enhancements of RDFFL to record kilowatt level are demonstrated with the aid of fiber master oscillator power amplifier (MOPA) with different pump schemes.

  8. Forecasting the distribution of precipitate diameters in the presence of changes in the structure of the material

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zieliński A.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The results of investigations on the microstructure of T23 and T24 low-alloy steels as well as P91 and P92 high-chromium steels in the as-received condition and after 70.000 h annealing at 550-650°C are presented. The quantitative analysis of the existing precipitates was performed for representative images of microstructure. The statistical analysis of collected data allowed the parameters of a selected theoretical statistical distribution to be estimated. A forecast of average precipitate diameter and standard deviation of such a distribution for the time of 100,000 hours at 550 and 600°C for T23 and T24 steels and at 600 and 650°C for P91 and P92 steels was calculated. The obtained results of investigations have made it possible to compare changes in the microstructure of various steel grades due to long-term impact of elevated temperature. They have also confirmed the possibility of using, in evaluating the degradation degree of materials in use, the forecasting methods that derive from mathematical statistics, in particular the theory of stochastic processes and forecast by analogy methods. The presented approach allows the development of a forecast of precipitate diameter probability density under the microstructure instability conditions for selected steel grades. The assessment of material condition that takes into consideration, but is not limited to, the precipitate diameter measurement is useful as an assessment component in estimating the time of safe service of power unit elements working under creep conditions.

  9. Regional patterns of extreme precipitation on Titan consistent with observed alluvial fan distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faulk, S. P.; Mitchell, J. L.; Moon, S.; Lora, J. M.

    2017-11-01

    Geomorphic features typically associated with extreme rainfall events in terrestrial settings, including extensive fluvial features and alluvial fans, have been detected on Titan's surface. Methane flow from precipitation on Titan can transport sediments and potentially erode the icy bedrock, but averaged precipitation rates from prior global-scale modelling are too low by at least an order of magnitude to initiate sediment transport of observed grain sizes at low latitudes. Here, we quantify the regional magnitude, frequency and variability of extreme rainfall events from simulations of present-day Titan, with a general circulation model coupled to a land model partially covered by wetlands reservoirs that can capture Titan's regionally varying hydroclimate. We find that the most extreme storms tend to occur in the mid-latitudes, where observed alluvial fans are most concentrated. Storms capable of sediment transport and erosion occur at all latitudes in our simulations, consistent with the observed global coverage of fluvial features. Our results demonstrate the influential role of extreme precipitation in shaping Titan's surface. We therefore suggest that, similarly to Earth but differently from Mars, active geomorphic work may be ongoing in the present climate on Titan.

  10. Predicting cement distribution in geothermal sandstone reservoirs based on estimates of precipitation temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olivarius, Mette; Weibel, Rikke; Whitehouse, Martin; Kristensen, Lars; Hjuler, Morten L.; Mathiesen, Anders; Boyce, Adrian J.; Nielsen, Lars H.

    2016-04-01

    Exploitation of geothermal sandstone reservoirs is challenged by pore-cementing minerals since they reduce the fluid flow through the sandstones. Geothermal exploration aims at finding sandstone bodies located at depths that are adequate for sufficiently warm water to be extracted, but without being too cemented for warm water production. The amount of cement is highly variable in the Danish geothermal reservoirs which mainly comprise the Bunter Sandstone, Skagerrak and Gassum formations. The present study involves bulk and in situ stable isotope analyses of calcite, dolomite, ankerite, siderite and quartz in order to estimate at what depth they were formed and enable prediction of where they can be found. The δ18O values measured in the carbonate minerals and quartz overgrowths are related to depth since they are a result of the temperatures of the pore fluid. Thus the values indicate the precipitation temperatures and they fit the relative diagenetic timing identified by petrographical observations. The sandstones deposited during arid climatic conditions contain calcite and dolomite cement that formed during early diagenesis. These carbonate minerals precipitated as a response to different processes, and precipitation of macro-quartz took over at deeper burial. Siderite was the first carbonate mineral that formed in the sandstones that were deposited in a humid climate. Calcite began precipitating at increased burial depth and ankerite formed during deep burial and replaced some of the other phases. Ankerite and quartz formed in the same temperature interval so constrains on the isotopic composition of the pore fluid can be achieved. Differences in δ13C values exist between the sandstones that were deposited in arid versus humid environments, which suggest that different kinds of processes were active. The estimated precipitation temperatures of the different cement types are used to predict which of them are present in geothermal sandstone reservoirs in

  11. Multivariate non-normally distributed random variables in climate research – introduction to the copula approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Friederichs

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Probability distributions of multivariate random variables are generally more complex compared to their univariate counterparts which is due to a possible nonlinear dependence between the random variables. One approach to this problem is the use of copulas, which have become popular over recent years, especially in fields like econometrics, finance, risk management, or insurance. Since this newly emerging field includes various practices, a controversial discussion, and vast field of literature, it is difficult to get an overview. The aim of this paper is therefore to provide an brief overview of copulas for application in meteorology and climate research. We examine the advantages and disadvantages compared to alternative approaches like e.g. mixture models, summarize the current problem of goodness-of-fit (GOF tests for copulas, and discuss the connection with multivariate extremes. An application to station data shows the simplicity and the capabilities as well as the limitations of this approach. Observations of daily precipitation and temperature are fitted to a bivariate model and demonstrate, that copulas are valuable complement to the commonly used methods.

  12. A Double-Smoothing Algorithm for Integrating Satellite Precipitation Products in Areas with Sparsely Distributed In Situ Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuoben Bi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The spatial distribution of automatic weather stations in regions of western China (e.g., Tibet and southern Xingjiang is relatively sparse. Due to the considerable spatial variability of precipitation, estimations of rainfall that are interpolated in these areas exhibit considerable uncertainty based on the current observational networks. In this paper, a new statistical method for estimating precipitation is introduced that integrates satellite products and in situ observation data. This method calculates the differences between raster data and point data based on the theory of data assimilation. In regions in which the spatial distribution of automatic weather stations is sparse, a nonparametric kernel-smoothing method is adopted to process the discontinuous data through correction and spatial interpolation. A comparative analysis of the fusion method based on the double-smoothing algorithm proposed here indicated that the method performed better than those used in previous studies based on the average deviation, root mean square error, and correlation coefficient values. Our results indicate that the proposed method is more rational and effective in terms of both the efficiency coefficient and the spatial distribution of the deviations.

  13. Changes in Precipitate Distributions and the Microstructural Evolution of P24/P91 Dissimilar Metal Welds During PWHT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Karl E.; Tatlock, Gordon J.; Chi, Kuangnan; Barnard, Peter

    2013-11-01

    The effect of post-weld heat treatments (PWHTs) on the evolution of precipitate phases in dissimilar metal welds made between 9 pct Cr P91 alloy and 2.25 pct Cr T/P24-type weld metal has been investigated. Sections of multi-pass fusion welds were analyzed in their as welded condition and after PWHTs of 2 and 8 hour duration at 1003 K (730 °C). Thin foil specimens and carbon extraction replicas have been examined in transmission electron microscopes in order to identify precipitate phases and substantiate their distributions in close proximity to the fusion line. The findings of these studies confirm that a carbon-depleted region develops in the lower alloyed weld material, adjacent to the weld interface, during thermal processing. A corresponding carbon enriched region is formed, simultaneously, in the coarse grain heat affected zone of the P91 parent alloy. It has been demonstrated that carbon depletion from the weld alloy results in the dissolution of M7C3 and M23C6 chromium carbides. However, micro-alloying additions of vanadium and niobium which are made to both the P24 and P91 alloys facilitate the precipitation of stable, nano-scale, MX carbonitride particles. This work demonstrates that these particles, which are of key importance to the strength of ferritic creep resistant alloys, are retained in carbon-depleted regions. The microstructural stability which is conferred by their retention means that the pernicious effects of recrystallization are largely avoided.

  14. Origin and distribution of trace elements in high-elevation precipitation in southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jie; Wang, Yan; Yue, Taixing; Li, Yuhua; Wai, Ka-Ming; Wang, Wenxing

    2012-09-01

    During a 2009 investigation of the transport and deposition of trace elements in southern China, 37 event-based precipitation samples were collected at an observatory on Mount Heng, China (1,269 m asl). Concentrations of trace elements were analyzed using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry and the wet deposition fluxes were established. A combination of techniques including enrichment factor analysis, principal component analysis, and back trajectory models were used to identify pollutant sources. Trace element concentrations at Mount Heng were among the highest with respect to measured values reported elsewhere. All elements were of non-marine origin. The elements Pb, As, Cu, Se, and Cd were anthropogenic, while Fe, Cr, V, Ba, Mn, and Ni were of mixed crustal/anthropogenic origin. The crustal and anthropogenic contributions of trace elements were 12.8 % (0.9 ~ 17.4 %) and 87.2 % (82.6 ~ 99.1 %), with the maximum crustal fraction being 17.4 % for Fe. Coal combustion, soil and road dust, metallurgical processes, and industrial activities contributed to the element composition. Summit precipitation events were primarily distant in origin. Medium- to long-range transport of trace elements from the Yangtze River Delta and northern China played an important role in wet deposition at Mount Heng, while air masses from south or southeast of the station were generally low in trace element concentrations.

  15. The limit distribution of the maximum increment of a random walk with regularly varying jump size distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikosch, Thomas Valentin; Rackauskas, Alfredas

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we deal with the asymptotic distribution of the maximum increment of a random walk with a regularly varying jump size distribution. This problem is motivated by a long-standing problem on change point detection for epidemic alternatives. It turns out that the limit distribution...... of the maximum increment of the random walk is one of the classical extreme value distributions, the Fréchet distribution. We prove the results in the general framework of point processes and for jump sizes taking values in a separable Banach space...

  16. Distribution of Hopanoids and Steroids Along a Precipitation Gradient of the Atacama Desert, Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iñiguez, Enrique; Navarro-Gonzalez, Rafael; McKay, Chris

    The Atacama Desert in northern Chile is one of the oldest and dries regions on the planet that extends across 1000 km from 20° S to 30° S along the Pacific coast of South America. In recent years this area has received more attention by the astrobiology community after the discovery of Mars-like soils in the Yungay area, the hyperarid coreof the Atacama Desert (Navarro-Gonźlez, a et al., 2003). In this area, the levels of organics in the soil are undetectable by Pyr-GC-MS using the Viking temperature protocol (200-500o C) but detectable at higher temperatures (750o C). In addition the levels of culturable bacteria are extremely low and there is no recoverable DNA in the soil. Furthermore there is the presence of non-chirally specific oxidants in the soil (Navarro-Gonźlez, et al., 2003). The levels of organics and culturable bacteria increase a with precipitation a long a moisture gradient from the driest parts (24° S) to the less arid zones (28° S) along a transect at about 70° W. NMR spectroscopic analyses of extracted organic matter from the Yungay region indicate the presence of different organic fuctional groups like polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, cyclic aliphatic chains, and different carboxylic and amino groups (Ĩiguez E. et al., 2005) which are not detectable by Pyr-GC-MS at 750o C. Recently n we have re-examined surface soil samples (first 5 cm layer) from this precipitation gradient in the search for organic biomarkers that would reveal the limits of life for prokaryotic as well as for eukaryotic cells under desiccation. The organics from the Atacama soil have been extracted by a reflux solution of methanol/dichloromethane (1:2) (Soxhlet extraction) for 48 hrs, then they were concentrated by evaporation using a nitrogen flux, and finally chemically derivatized using N-tert butyldimethylsilyl-N-methyltrifluoroacetamide in dimethylformamide or tetramethylamonium hydroxide at 25 Navarro-Gonźlez, R., et al., 2003, Science 302, 1018-1021 Ĩiguez E

  17. A model for the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent parameterized from the spatial variability of precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Skaugen

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Snow is an important and complicated element in hydrological modelling. The traditional catchment hydrological model with its many free calibration parameters, also in snow sub-models, is not a well-suited tool for predicting conditions for which it has not been calibrated. Such conditions include prediction in ungauged basins and assessing hydrological effects of climate change. In this study, a new model for the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE, parameterized solely from observed spatial variability of precipitation, is compared with the current snow distribution model used in the operational flood forecasting models in Norway. The former model uses a dynamic gamma distribution and is called Snow Distribution_Gamma, (SD_G, whereas the latter model has a fixed, calibrated coefficient of variation, which parameterizes a log-normal model for snow distribution and is called Snow Distribution_Log-Normal (SD_LN. The two models are implemented in the parameter parsimonious rainfall–runoff model Distance Distribution Dynamics (DDD, and their capability for predicting runoff, SWE and snow-covered area (SCA is tested and compared for 71 Norwegian catchments. The calibration period is 1985–2000 and validation period is 2000–2014. Results show that SD_G better simulates SCA when compared with MODIS satellite-derived snow cover. In addition, SWE is simulated more realistically in that seasonal snow is melted out and the building up of "snow towers" and giving spurious positive trends in SWE, typical for SD_LN, is prevented. The precision of runoff simulations using SD_G is slightly inferior, with a reduction in Nash–Sutcliffe and Kling–Gupta efficiency criterion of 0.01, but it is shown that the high precision in runoff prediction using SD_LN is accompanied with erroneous simulations of SWE.

  18. CONVERGENCE OF THE FRACTIONAL PARTS OF THE RANDOM VARIABLES TO THE TRUNCATED EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bogdan Gheorghe Munteanu

    2013-01-01

    Using the stochastic approximations, in this paper it was studiedthe convergence in distribution of the fractional parts of the sum of random variables to the truncated exponential distribution with parameter lambda...

  19. Random Access Performance of Distributed Sensors Attacked by Unknown Jammers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Dae-Kyo; Wui, Jung-Hwa; Kim, Dongwoo

    2017-11-18

    In this paper, we model and investigate the random access (RA) performance of sensor nodes (SN) in a wireless sensor network (WSN). In the WSN, a central head sensor (HS) collects the information from distributed SNs, and jammers disturb the information transmission primarily by generating interference. In this paper, two jamming attacks are considered: power and code jamming. Power jammers (if they are friendly jammers) generate noises and, as a result, degrade the quality of the signal from SNs. Power jamming is equally harmful to all the SNs that are accessing HS and simply induces denial of service (DoS) without any need to hack HS or SNs. On the other hand, code jammers mimic legitimate SNs by sending fake signals and thus need to know certain system parameters that are used by the legitimate SNs. As a result of code jamming, HS falsely allocates radio resources to SNs. The code jamming hence increases the failure probability in sending the information messages, as well as misleads the usage of radio resources. In this paper, we present the probabilities of successful preamble transmission with power ramping according to the jammer types and provide the resulting throughput and delay of information transmission by SNs, respectively. The effect of two jamming attacks on the RA performances is compared with numerical investigation. The results show that, compared to RA without jammers, power and code jamming degrade the throughput by up to 30.3% and 40.5%, respectively, while the delay performance by up to 40.1% and 65.6%, respectively.

  20. Random Access Performance of Distributed Sensors Attacked by Unknown Jammers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dae-Kyo Jeong

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we model and investigate the random access (RA performance of sensor nodes (SN in a wireless sensor network (WSN. In the WSN, a central head sensor (HS collects the information from distributed SNs, and jammers disturb the information transmission primarily by generating interference. In this paper, two jamming attacks are considered: power and code jamming. Power jammers (if they are friendly jammers generate noises and, as a result, degrade the quality of the signal from SNs. Power jamming is equally harmful to all the SNs that are accessing HS and simply induces denial of service (DoS without any need to hack HS or SNs. On the other hand, code jammers mimic legitimate SNs by sending fake signals and thus need to know certain system parameters that are used by the legitimate SNs. As a result of code jamming, HS falsely allocates radio resources to SNs. The code jamming hence increases the failure probability in sending the information messages, as well as misleads the usage of radio resources. In this paper, we present the probabilities of successful preamble transmission with power ramping according to the jammer types and provide the resulting throughput and delay of information transmission by SNs, respectively. The effect of two jamming attacks on the RA performances is compared with numerical investigation. The results show that, compared to RA without jammers, power and code jamming degrade the throughput by up to 30.3% and 40.5%, respectively, while the delay performance by up to 40.1% and 65.6%, respectively.

  1. Diverse belowground resource strategies underlie plant species coexistence and spatial distribution in three grasslands along a precipitation gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hongbo; Liu, Bitao; McCormack, M Luke; Ma, Zeqing; Guo, Dali

    2017-12-01

    Functional traits and their variation mediate plant species coexistence and spatial distribution. Yet, how patterns of variation in belowground traits influence resource acquisition across species and plant communities remains obscure. To characterize diverse belowground strategies in relation to species coexistence and abundance, we assessed four key belowground traits - root diameter, root branching intensity, first-order root length and mycorrhizal colonization - in 27 coexisting species from three grassland communities along a precipitation gradient. Species with thinner roots had higher root branching intensity, but shorter first-order root length and consistently low mycorrhizal colonization, whereas species with thicker roots enhanced their capacity for resource acquisition by producing longer first-order roots and maintaining high mycorrhizal colonization. Plant species observed across multiple sites consistently decreased root branching and/or mycorrhizal colonization, but increased lateral root length with decreasing precipitation. Additionally, the degree of intraspecific trait variation was positively correlated with species abundance across the gradient, indicating that high intraspecific trait variation belowground may facilitate greater fitness and chances of survival across multiple habitats. These results suggest that a small set of critical belowground traits can effectively define diverse resource acquisition strategies in different environments and may forecast species survival and range shifts under climate change. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

  2. Remote sensing of seasonal distribution of precipitable water vapor over the oceans and inference of boundary layer structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhakara, C.

    1979-01-01

    Over the ocean satellite infrared spectral measurements in the 18 micrometer water vapor band and the 11 micrometer window region were used to derive precipitable water vapor, w, in the atmosphere and the sea surface temperature, SST. Seasonal maps of w on the oceans derived from these data reveal the dynamical influence of the large scale atmospheric circulation. With the help of a model for the vertical distribution of water vapor, the configuration of the atmospheric boundary layer over the oceans can be inferred from w when the information of SST is combined. The gross seasonal mean structure of the boundary layer inferred in this fashion reveals the broad areas of the trade wind inversion and the convectively active areas such as the intertropical convergence zones.

  3. CONVERGENCE OF THE FRACTIONAL PARTS OF THE RANDOM VARIABLES TO THE TRUNCATED EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Gheorghe Munteanu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Using the stochastic approximations, in this paper it was studiedthe convergence in distribution of the fractional parts of the sum of random variables to the truncated exponential distribution with parameter lambda. This fact is feasible by means of the Fourier-Stieltjes sequence (FSS of the random variable.

  4. Algorithm for generation pseudo-random series with arbitrarily assigned distribution law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    В.С. Єременко

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available  Method for generation pseudo-random series with arbitrarily assigned distribution law has been proposed. The praxis of using proposed method for generation pseudo-random series with anti-modal and approximate to Gaussian distribution law has been investigated.

  5. Evaluating the Use of Random Distribution Theory to Introduce Statistical Inference Concepts to Business Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larwin, Karen H.; Larwin, David A.

    2011-01-01

    Bootstrapping methods and random distribution methods are increasingly recommended as better approaches for teaching students about statistical inference in introductory-level statistics courses. The authors examined the effect of teaching undergraduate business statistics students using random distribution and bootstrapping simulations. It is the…

  6. [Spatiotemporal distribution of air temperature and precipitation in rice growth period in Fujian Province of East China and the effects of this distribution on rice planting pattern].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Min; Jin, Zhi-Qing; Yang, Hui; Shi, Chun-Lin; Zhu, Chao-Zhi; Lin, Wen-Xiong

    2012-12-01

    In order to investigate the effects of climate change on the rice production and rice planting pattern in Fujian Province, an analysis was made on the spatiotemporal distribution of air temperature and precipitation in rice growth period in the Province, and the possible changes of the local rice planting pattern in the future, based on the A2, B2, and A1 B scenarios of IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES). In the future, the rice growth period's air temperature in the Province tended to be increased, and the increment would be increased with time, with the maximum for single cropping rice and being 0.3-2.4 degrees C and 1.5-3.4 degrees C in 2011-2030 and 2031 -2050, respectively. For early rice and late rice, the increment of their growth period's air temperature would be 0.2-0.9 degrees C and 0.7-1.7 degrees C in 2011-2030 and 0.3-2.1 degrees C and 0.5-3.6 degrees C in 2031-2050, respectively, but the annual fluctuation of the mean daily temperature would be most obvious for late rice. The rice growth period's precipitation in most parts of the Province also tended to be increased, and the increment for early rice, single cropping rice, and late rice would be 10%-40%, 10%-30%, and 10%-20%, respectively. The annual fluctuation of the precipitation would be most obvious for the early rice in southeastern Fujian. The elevated air temperature in the future could induce the increase of > or = 10 degrees C accumulated temperature, and lengthen the rice growth season, making it possible to replace early and medium-maturity varieties with late-maturity varieties, and to adopt double-rice planting pattern instead of single-rice planting pattern.

  7. Distribution of local density of states in superstatistical random matrix theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abul-Magd, A.Y. [Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Zagazig University, Zagazig (Egypt)]. E-mail: a_y_abul_magd@hotmail.com

    2007-07-02

    We expose an interesting connection between the distribution of local spectral density of states arising in the theory of disordered systems and the notion of superstatistics introduced by Beck and Cohen and recently incorporated in random matrix theory. The latter represents the matrix-element joint probability density function as an average of the corresponding quantity in the standard random-matrix theory over a distribution of level densities. We show that this distribution is in reasonable agreement with the numerical calculation for a disordered wire, which suggests to use the results of theory of disordered conductors in estimating the parameter distribution of the superstatistical random-matrix ensemble.

  8. Limit distributions for queues and random rooted trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lajos Takács

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper several limit theorems are proved for the fluctuations of the queue size during the initial busy period of a queuing process with one server. These theorems are used to find the solutions of various problems connected with the heights and widths of random rooted trees.

  9. Stimulated luminescence emission from localized recombination in randomly distributed defects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jain, Mayank; Guralnik, Benny; Andersen, Martin Thalbitzer

    2012-01-01

    results in a highly asymmetric TL peak; this peak can be understood to derive from a continuum of several first-order TL peaks. Our model also shows an extended power law behaviour for OSL (or prompt luminescence), which is expected from localized recombination mechanisms in materials with random...

  10. Bias correction of daily precipitation projected by the CORDEX-Africa ensemble for a sparsely gauged region in West Africa with regionalized distribution parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Manuel; Bliefernicht, Jan; Laux, Patrick; Kunstmann, Harald

    2017-04-01

    Reliable estimates of future climatic conditions are indispensable for the sustainable planning of agricultural activities in West Africa. Precipitation time series of regional climate models (RCMs) typically exhibit a bias in the distribution of both rainfall intensities and wet day frequencies. Furthermore, the annual and monthly sums of precipitation may remarkably vary from the observations in this region. As West Africa experiences a distinct rainy season, sowing dates are oftentimes planned based on the beginning of this rainfall period. A biased representation of the annual cycle of precipitation in the uncorrected RCMs can therefore lead to crop failure. The precipitation ensemble, obtained from the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment CORDEX-Africa, was bias-corrected for the study region in West Africa (extending approximately 343,358 km2) which covers large parts of Burkina Faso, Ghana and Benin. In oder to debias the RCM precipitation simulations, a Quantile-Mapping method was applied to the historical period 1950-2005. For the RCM future projections (2006-2100), the Double-Quantile-Mapping procedure was chosen. This method makes use of the shift in the distribution function of the future precipitation values which allows to incorporate the climate change signal of the RCM projections into the bias correction. As large areas of the study region are ungauged, the assignment of the information from the nearest station to the ungauged location would lead to sharp changes in the estimated statistics from one location to another. Thus, the distribution parameters needed for the Quantile-Mapping were estimated by Kriging the distribution parameters of the available measurement stations. This way it is possible to obtain reasonable estimates of the expected distribution of precipitation at ungauged locations. The presentation will illustrate some aspects and trade-offs in the distribution parameter interpolation as well as an analysis of the uncertainties of the

  11. Monotonic trends in spatio-temporal distribution and concentration of monsoon precipitation (1901-2002), West Bengal, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Soumendu; Khan, Ansar; Akbari, Hashem; Wang, Yupeng

    2016-12-01

    This paper intended to investigate spatio-temporal monotonic trend and shift in concentration of monsoon precipitation across West Bengal, India, by analysing the time series of monthly precipitation from 18 weather stations during the period from 1901 to 2002. In dealing with, the inhomogeneity in the precipitation series, RHtestsV4 software package is used to detect, and adjust for, multiple change points (shifts) that could exist in data series. Finally, the cumulative deviation test was applied at 5% significant level to check the homogeneity (presence of historic changes by cumulative deviations test). Afterward, non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Theil-Sen estimator (TSE) was applied to detect of nature and slope of trends; and, Sequential Mann Kendall (SQMK) test was applied for detection of turning point and magnitude of change in trends. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation in precipitation data series. Four indices- precipitation concentration index (PCI), precipitation concentration degree (PCD), precipitation concentration period (PCP) and fulcrum (centre of gravity) were used to detect precipitation concentration and the spatial pattern in it. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide monotonic trend for monsoon precipitation time series. Regional cluster analysis by SQMK found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general, except during the non- monsoon seasons. The results show that higher PCI values were mainly observed in South Bengal, whereas lower PCI values were mostly detected in North Bengal. The PCI values are noticeably larger in places where both monsoon total precipitation and span of rainy season are lower. The results of PCP reveal that precipitation in Gangetic Bengal mostly occurs in summer (monsoon season), and the rainy season arrives earlier in North Bengal than South Bengal

  12. Remote sensing of seasonal distribution of precipitable water vapor over the oceans and the inference of boundary-layer structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhakara, C.; Lo, R. C.; Nath, N. R.; Dalu, G.

    1979-01-01

    From the depth of the water vapor spectral lines in the 8-9 micron window region, measured by the Nimbus 4 Infrared Interferometer Spectrometer (IRIS) with a resolution of about 3/cm, the precipitable water vapor over the oceans is remotely sensed. In addition the IRIS spectral data in the 11-13 micron window region have been used to derive the sea surface temperature (SST). Seasonal maps of w on the oceans deduced from the spectral data reveal the dynamical influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. With the help of a model for the vertical distribution of water vapor, the configuration of the atmospheric boundary layer over the oceans can be inferred from these remotely sensed w and SST. The gross seasonal mean structure of the boundary layer inferred in this fashion reveals the broad areas of trade wind inversion and the convectively active areas such as the ITCZ. The derived information is in reasonable agreement with some observed climatological patterns over the oceans.

  13. Evolution of Precipitation Particle Size Distributions within MC3E Systems and its Impact on Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Interactions: Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kollias, Pavlos [McGill Univ., Montreal, QC (Canada)

    2017-08-08

    This is a multi-institutional, collaborative project using observations and modeling to study the evolution (e.g. formation and growth) of hydrometeors in continental convective clouds. Our contribution was in data analysis for the generation of high-value cloud and precipitation products and derive cloud statistics for model validation. There are two areas in data analysis that we contributed: i) the development of novel, state-of-the-art dual-wavelength radar algorithms for the retrieval of cloud microphysical properties and ii) the evaluation of large domain, high-resolution models using comprehensive multi-sensor observations. Our research group developed statistical summaries from numerous sensors and developed retrievals of vertical air motion in deep convection.

  14. Electrospun dye-doped fiber networks: lasing emission from randomly distributed cavities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krammer, Sarah; Vannahme, Christoph; Smith, Cameron

    2015-01-01

    Dye-doped polymer fiber networks fabricated with electrospinning exhibit comb-like laser emission. We identify randomly distributed ring resonators being responsible for lasing emission by making use of spatially resolved spectroscopy. Numerical simulations confirm this result quantitatively....

  15. Sparse Maximum-Entropy Random Graphs with a Given Power-Law Degree Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Hoorn, Pim; Lippner, Gabor; Krioukov, Dmitri

    2017-10-01

    Even though power-law or close-to-power-law degree distributions are ubiquitously observed in a great variety of large real networks, the mathematically satisfactory treatment of random power-law graphs satisfying basic statistical requirements of realism is still lacking. These requirements are: sparsity, exchangeability, projectivity, and unbiasedness. The last requirement states that entropy of the graph ensemble must be maximized under the degree distribution constraints. Here we prove that the hypersoft configuration model, belonging to the class of random graphs with latent hyperparameters, also known as inhomogeneous random graphs or W-random graphs, is an ensemble of random power-law graphs that are sparse, unbiased, and either exchangeable or projective. The proof of their unbiasedness relies on generalized graphons, and on mapping the problem of maximization of the normalized Gibbs entropy of a random graph ensemble, to the graphon entropy maximization problem, showing that the two entropies converge to each other in the large-graph limit.

  16. Increased Precipitation over the Yucatan Peninsula Inferred from the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Late Holocene Foram Assemblages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachmallu, M.; Broach, K.; Paytan, A.; Street, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    As global climate warms, IPCC predictions suggest dry and seasonally dry regions will become dryer, increasing stress on water resources by growing urban populations (e.g. Southern California; Yucatan, Mexico). This study aims to reconstruct paleohydrologic trends during the late Holocene using foraminifera assemblages in Yucatan, Mexico to determine drought susceptibility in a region affected by migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The ITCZ affects precipitation over the Yucatan Peninsula, potentially decreasing groundwater infiltration and thus reducing discharge in submarine springs at the peninsula margins. The field site Celestun Lagoon near Merida, Yucatan, Mexico, is dominated by spring and groundwater inputs at the northern terminus and opens to the Gulf of Mexico at the southern end resulting in a strong salinity gradient dependent on freshwater influx. We analyzed the foram assemblage in the top 6 cm of a set of 7 cores collected along a lagoonal transect (from the mouth to the head) and plotted the relative abundances of Ammonia beccarii, Elphidium sp., Quinqueloculina sp., and the ostracod Hemicyprideis cf. nichuptensis against site location. A. beccarii abundance increases from 40% near the head to 70% near the middle of the lagoon before dropping to <10% toward the saline lagoon mouth (high abundance in brackish salinity). Quinqueloculina sp. increases from 0% at the upper lagoon to nearly 40% near the mouth showing an opposite trend along the same transect. Elphidium sp. showed no clear trend (abundance range 10-28% throughout), and lowest H. nichuptensis abundance occurred at the middle of the lagoon (10%) increasing to the north and south (up to 60%). The inversely correlated spatial distribution between A. beccarii and Quinqueloculina sp. occurs vertically in an upper lagoon long core from 125-96 cm below sediment-water interface (14C age dates 3968-2820 ka), implying a decreasing salinity over ~1000 yrs and increased

  17. Computer simulation of random variables and vectors with arbitrary probability distribution laws

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogdan, V. M.

    1981-01-01

    Assume that there is given an arbitrary n-dimensional probability distribution F. A recursive construction is found for a sequence of functions x sub 1 = f sub 1 (U sub 1, ..., U sub n), ..., x sub n = f sub n (U sub 1, ..., U sub n) such that if U sub 1, ..., U sub n are independent random variables having uniform distribution over the open interval (0,1), then the joint distribution of the variables x sub 1, ..., x sub n coincides with the distribution F. Since uniform independent random variables can be well simulated by means of a computer, this result allows one to simulate arbitrary n-random variables if their joint probability distribution is known.

  18. Saddlepoint approximations for the sum of independent non-identically distributed binomial random variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eisinga, R.N.; Grotenhuis, H.F. te; Pelzer, B.J.

    2013-01-01

    We discuss saddlepoint approximations to the distribution of the sum of independent non-identically distributed binomial random variables. We examine the accuracy of the saddlepoint methods for a sum of 10 binomials with different sets of parameter values. The numerical results indicate that the

  19. Theoretical solutions for degree distribution of decreasing random birth-and-death networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Yin; Zhang, Xiao-Jun; Wang, Kui

    2017-05-01

    In this paper, theoretical solutions for degree distribution of decreasing random birth-and-death networks (0 probability generating function approach are employed. Then, based on the form of Poisson summation, we further confirm the tail characteristic of degree distribution is Poisson tail. Finally, simulations are carried out to verify these results by comparing the theoretical solutions with computer simulations.

  20. Aerosols, clouds, and precipitation in the North Atlantic trades observed during the Barbados aerosol cloud experiment – Part 1: Distributions and variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Jung

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Shallow marine cumulus clouds are by far the most frequently observed cloud type over the Earth's oceans; but they are poorly understood and have not been investigated as extensively as stratocumulus clouds. This study describes and discusses the properties and variations of aerosol, cloud, and precipitation associated with shallow marine cumulus clouds observed in the North Atlantic trades during a field campaign (Barbados Aerosol Cloud Experiment- BACEX, March–April 2010, which took place off Barbados where African dust periodically affects the region. The principal observing platform was the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS Twin Otter (TO research aircraft, which was equipped with standard meteorological instruments, a zenith pointing cloud radar and probes that measured aerosol, cloud, and precipitation characteristics.The temporal variation and vertical distribution of aerosols observed from the 15 flights, which included the most intense African dust event during all of 2010 in Barbados, showed a wide range of aerosol conditions. During dusty periods, aerosol concentrations increased substantially in the size range between 0.5 and 10 µm (diameter, particles that are large enough to be effective giant cloud condensation nuclei (CCN. The 10-day back trajectories showed three distinct air masses with distinct vertical structures associated with air masses originating in the Atlantic (typical maritime air mass with relatively low aerosol concentrations in the marine boundary layer, Africa (Saharan air layer, and mid-latitudes (continental pollution plumes. Despite the large differences in the total mass loading and the origin of the aerosols, the overall shapes of the aerosol particle size distributions were consistent, with the exception of the transition period.The TO was able to sample many clouds at various phases of growth. Maximum cloud depth observed was less than ∼ 3 km, while most

  1. NiO Nanoparticles Synthesis by Chemical Precipitation and Effect of Applied Surfactant on Distribution of Particle Size

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Bahari Molla Mahaleh

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Production of NiO by chemical precipitation is the approach utilized in this work. Materials mainly used in this project are nickel nitrate hex hydrate (as a basic material, sodium hydroxide (as a precipitator material, and the following surfactants (for reduction in particle size. Applied surfactants are in two kinds: polymeric (PVP, PEG and cationic (CTAB surfactants, 1.0 gram. Nanopowders properties are identified by TG, FTIR, XRD, SEM, and TEM. The results obtained confirm the presence of nickel oxide nanopowders produced during chemical precipitation.

  2. Real-Time Operation Of A Multipurpose Multi-Reservoir System Using A Distributed Hydrological Model And Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saavedra Valeriano, O. C.; Koike, T.; Yang, K.; Yang, D.

    2007-12-01

    Taking advantage of a distributed hydrological model's capabilities such as capturing spatial heterogeneity, this study couples a physically based hydrological model with embedded dam network operation to a heuristic model for real-time operation. The input rainfall is a meso-scale quantitative precipitation forecast at 0.125 degrees resolution issued every 6 hours. It was analyzed 3 different series and the complete 18 hours lead-time. The system attempts to 1) reduce flood peaks down stream and 2) replenish water level at reservoirs after flood event. The proposed scheme takes advantage of the heuristic algorithm in order to evaluate different release combination sets automatically based on stochastic seeding considering the dam constraints and objective function. Latter is defined to minimize the absolute difference between the forecasted flood volume at protecting point and the total released volume from reservoirs. To estimate the flood volume a desirable discharge is to be set at protecting point. The desirable discharge is defined as the average of observed values exceeding the mean annual discharge; however, this can be modified according to flood warning levels and water resources management. The optimization variables are the release-inflow ratios. In addition, it was introduced the standard deviation of the error forecast as a weight in the objective function. The developed system was applied to upper Tone River in Japan using up to three multipurpose reservoirs. The efficiency of the system's response was evident reducing the flood peaks and volume at protecting point comparing the optimized releases against observed data. This approach has shown feasibility to be used by dam operators as a real-time reference tool for more efficient water resources management.

  3. Exact Distributions of Finite Random Matrices and Their Applications to Spectrum Sensing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wensheng; Wang, Cheng-Xiang; Tao, Xiaofeng; Patcharamaneepakorn, Piya

    2016-07-29

    The exact and simple distributions of finite random matrix theory (FRMT) are critically important for cognitive radio networks (CRNs). In this paper, we unify some existing distributions of the FRMT with the proposed coefficient matrices (vectors) and represent the distributions with the coefficient-based formulations. A coefficient reuse mechanism is studied, i.e., the same coefficient matrices (vectors) can be exploited to formulate different distributions. For instance, the same coefficient matrices can be used by the largest eigenvalue (LE) and the scaled largest eigenvalue (SLE); the same coefficient vectors can be used by the smallest eigenvalue (SE) and the Demmel condition number (DCN). A new and simple cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the DCN is also deduced. In particular, the dimension boundary between the infinite random matrix theory (IRMT) and the FRMT is initially defined. The dimension boundary provides a theoretical way to divide random matrices into infinite random matrices and finite random matrices. The FRMT-based spectrum sensing (SS) schemes are studied for CRNs. The SLE-based scheme can be considered as an asymptotically-optimal SS scheme when the dimension K is larger than two. Moreover, the standard condition number (SCN)-based scheme achieves the same sensing performance as the SLE-based scheme for dual covariance matrix K = 2 . The simulation results verify that the coefficient-based distributions can fit the empirical results very well, and the FRMT-based schemes outperform the IRMT-based schemes and the conventional SS schemes.

  4. Interaction of valleys and circulation patterns (CPs) on small-scale spatial precipitation distribution in the complex terrain of southern Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, M.; Bárdossy, A.; Zehe, E.

    2012-12-01

    Topography exerts influence on the spatial precipitation distribution over different scales, known typically at the large scale as the orographic effect, and at the small scale as the wind-drift rainfall (WDR) effect. At the intermediate scale (~ 1-10 km), which is characterized by secondary mountain valleys, topography also demonstrates some effect on the precipitation pattern. This paper investigates such intermediate-scale topographic effect on precipitation patterns, focusing on narrow-steep valleys in the complex terrain in southern Germany, based on the daily observations over a 48-yr period (~ 1960-2007) from a high-density rain-gauge network covering two sub-areas, Baden-Wuerttemberg (BW) and Bayern (BY). Precipitation data at the valley and non-valley stations are compared under consideration of the daily general circulation patterns (CPs) classified by a fuzzy-rule based algorithm. Scatter plots of precipitation against elevation demonstrate a different behavior of valley stations comparing to non-valley stations. A detailed study of the precipitation time series for selected station triplets, each consisting of a valley station, a mountain station and an open station have been investigated by statistical analysis with the Kolmogrov-Smirnov (KS) test supplemented by the one-way analysis of variance (one-way ANOVA) and a graphical comparison of the means. The results show an interaction of valley orientation and the moisture flow direction of the CPs at the intermediate-scale, i.e. when the valley is shielded from the moisture flow, the precipitation amount within the valley is comparable to that on the mountain crest; when the valley is open to the moisture flow, the precipitation within the valley is much less than that on the mountain. Such a phenomenon, whereby the precipitation is "blind" to the valleys at the intermediate scale conditioned on CPs, is defined as the "narrow-valley effect" in this work, and it cannot be captured by the widely used

  5. An atlas of mean distribution of precipitable water vapour over the tropical Indian Ocean for the year 1979

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Sathe, P.V.; Muraleedharan, P.M.; Rao, L.V.G.

    The monthly mean maps of the precipitable water (PW) over the tropical Indian Ocean are prepared using the data derived from the Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) sensor for the period January to December, 1979. The PW...

  6. High-power random distributed feedback fiber laser: From science to application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Du, Xueyuan [College of Optoelectronic Science and Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073 (China); Naval Academy of Armament, Beijing 100161 (China); Zhang, Hanwei; Xiao, Hu; Ma, Pengfei; Wang, Xiaolin; Zhou, Pu; Liu, Zejin [College of Optoelectronic Science and Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073 (China)

    2016-10-15

    A fiber laser based on random distributed feedback has attracted increasing attention in recent years, as it has become an important photonic device and has found wide applications in fiber communications or sensing. In this article, recent advances in high-power random distributed feedback fiber laser are reviewed, including the theoretical analyses, experimental approaches, discussion on the practical applications and outlook. It is found that a random distributed feedback fiber laser can not only act as an information photonics device, but also has the feasibility for high-efficiency/high-power generation, which makes it competitive with conventional high-power laser sources. In addition, high-power random distributed feedback fiber laser has been successfully applied for midinfrared lasing, frequency doubling to the visible and high-quality imaging. It is believed that the high-power random distributed feedback fiber laser could become a promising light source with simple and economic configurations. (copyright 2016 by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  7. Random Regression Models Based On The Skew Elliptically Contoured Distribution Assumptions With Applications To Longitudinal Data *

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Shimin; Rao, Uma; Bartolucci, Alfred A.; Singh, Karan P.

    2011-01-01

    Bartolucci et al.(2003) extended the distribution assumption from the normal (Lyles et al., 2000) to the elliptical contoured distribution (ECD) for random regression models used in analysis of longitudinal data accounting for both undetectable values and informative drop-outs. In this paper, the random regression models are constructed on the multivariate skew ECD. A real data set is used to illustrate that the skew ECDs can fit some unimodal continuous data better than the Gaussian distributions or more general continuous symmetric distributions when the symmetric distribution assumption is violated. Also, a simulation study is done for illustrating the model fitness from a variety of skew ECDs. The software we used is SAS/STAT, V. 9.13. PMID:21637734

  8. Common-cavity ytterbium/Raman random distributed feedback fiber laser

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Han; Wang, Zinan; He, Qiheng; Sun, Wei; Rao, Yunjiang

    2017-06-01

    In this letter, a common-cavity random distributed feedback fiber laser which can generate both 1064 nm ytterbium-doped random lasing and 1115 nm ytterbium-Raman random lasing is proposed and experimentally demonstrated for the first time. The common cavity is based on the combination of the double-cladding ytterbium-doped fiber and the standard single mode fiber (SMF); a 1064 nm high-reflectivity fiber Bragg grating and the fiber flat-end are connected to the signal port of the pump combiner as the point reflectors. The generated 1064 nm random lasing can serve as the Raman pump in the SMF, thus 1115 nm random lasing could be stimulated with the hybrid ytterbium-Raman gain. The feedback for 1115 nm random lasing is the combination of flat-end fiber and random Rayleigh feedback. By controlling the value of flat-end fiber’s reflectivity to 0.002, stable 1.91 W of 1064 nm ytterbium-doped random lasing and 3.72 W of 1115 nm ytterbium-Raman random lasing are generated successively. This work could provide a simple and cost-effective way to generate high-power random lasing.

  9. The limit distribution of the maximum increment of a random walk with dependent regularly varying jump sizes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikosch, Thomas Valentin; Moser, Martin

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the maximum increment of a random walk with heavy-tailed jump size distribution. Here heavy-tailedness is understood as regular variation of the finite-dimensional distributions. The jump sizes constitute a strictly stationary sequence. Using a continuous mapping argument acting...... on the point processes of the normalized jump sizes, we prove that the maximum increment of the random walk converges in distribution to a Fréchet distributed random variable....

  10. Risk Assessment of Distribution Network Based on Random set Theory and Sensitivity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Sh; Bai, C. X.; Liang, J.; Jiao, L.; Hou, Z.; Liu, B. Zh

    2017-05-01

    Considering the complexity and uncertainty of operating information in distribution network, this paper introduces the use of random set for risk assessment. The proposed method is based on the operating conditions defined in the random set framework to obtain the upper and lower cumulative probability functions of risk indices. Moreover, the sensitivity of risk indices can effectually reflect information about system reliability and operating conditions, and by use of these information the bottlenecks that suppress system reliability can be found. The analysis about a typical radial distribution network shows that the proposed method is reasonable and effective.

  11. Distribution of Schmidt-like eigenvalues for Gaussian ensembles of the random matrix theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pato, Mauricio P.; Oshanin, Gleb

    2013-03-01

    We study the probability distribution function P(β)n(w) of the Schmidt-like random variable w = x21/(∑j = 1nx2j/n), where xj, (j = 1, 2, …, n), are unordered eigenvalues of a given n × n β-Gaussian random matrix, β being the Dyson symmetry index. This variable, by definition, can be considered as a measure of how any individual (randomly chosen) eigenvalue deviates from the arithmetic mean value of all eigenvalues of a given random matrix, and its distribution is calculated with respect to the ensemble of such β-Gaussian random matrices. We show that in the asymptotic limit n → ∞ and for arbitrary β the distribution P(β)n(w) converges to the Marčenko-Pastur form, i.e. is defined as P_{n}^{( \\beta )}(w) \\sim \\sqrt{(4 - w)/w} for w ∈ [0, 4] and equals zero outside of the support, despite the fact that formally w is defined on the interval [0, n]. Furthermore, for Gaussian unitary ensembles (β = 2) we present exact explicit expressions for P(β = 2)n(w) which are valid for arbitrary n and analyse their behaviour.

  12. Does mass azithromycin distribution impact child growth and nutrition in Niger? A cluster-randomized trial.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdou Amza

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Antibiotic use on animals demonstrates improved growth regardless of whether or not there is clinical evidence of infectious disease. Antibiotics used for trachoma control may play an unintended benefit of improving child growth.In this sub-study of a larger randomized controlled trial, we assess anthropometry of pre-school children in a community-randomized trial of mass oral azithromycin distributions for trachoma in Niger. We measured height, weight, and mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC in 12 communities randomized to receive annual mass azithromycin treatment of everyone versus 12 communities randomized to receive biannual mass azithromycin treatments for children, 3 years after the initial mass treatment. We collected measurements in 1,034 children aged 6-60 months of age.We found no difference in the prevalence of wasting among children in the 12 annually treated communities that received three mass azithromycin distributions compared to the 12 biannually treated communities that received six mass azithromycin distributions (odds ratio = 0.88, 95% confidence interval = 0.53 to 1.49.We were unable to demonstrate a statistically significant difference in stunting, underweight, and low MUAC of pre-school children in communities randomized to annual mass azithromycin treatment or biannual mass azithromycin treatment. The role of antibiotics on child growth and nutrition remains unclear, but larger studies and longitudinal trials may help determine any association.

  13. N-point free energy distribution function in one dimensional random directed polymers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Dotsenko

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Explicit expression for the N-point free energy distribution function in one dimensional directed polymers in a random potential is derived in terms of the Bethe ansatz replica technique. The obtained result is equivalent to the one derived earlier by Prolhac and Spohn [J. Stat. Mech., 2011, P03020].

  14. Particle-size distribution and void fraction of geometric random packings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwers, Jos

    2006-01-01

    This paper addresses the geometric random packing and void fraction of polydisperse particles. It is demonstrated that the bimodal packing can be transformed into a continuous particle-size distribution of the power law type. It follows that a maximum packing fraction of particles is obtained when

  15. Reinforcing Sampling Distributions through a Randomization-Based Activity for Introducing ANOVA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Laura; Doehler, Kirsten

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the use of a randomization-based activity to introduce the ANOVA F-test to students. The two main goals of this activity are to successfully teach students to comprehend ANOVA F-tests and to increase student comprehension of sampling distributions. Four sections of students in an advanced introductory statistics course…

  16. Is extrapair mating random? On the probability distribution of extrapair young in avian broods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brommer, Jon E.; Korsten, Peter; Bouwman, Karen A.; Berg, Mathew L.; Komdeur, Jan

    2007-01-01

    A dichotomy in female extrapair copulation (EPC) behavior, with some females seeking EPC and others not, is inferred if the observed distribution of extrapair young (EPY) over broods differs from a random process on the level of individual offspring (binomial, hypergeometrical, or Poisson). A review

  17. Scaling behaviors of precipitation over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Lei; Li, Nana; Zhao, Xia

    2017-04-01

    Scaling behaviors in the precipitation time series derived from 1951 to 2009 over China are investigated by detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method. The results show that there exists long-term memory for the precipitation time series in some stations, where the values of the scaling exponent α are less than 0.62, implying weak persistence characteristics. The values of scaling exponent in other stations indicate random behaviors. In addition, the scaling exponent α in precipitation records varies from station to station over China. A numerical test is made to verify the significance in DFA exponents by shuffling the data records many times. We think it is significant when the values of scaling exponent before shuffled precipitation records are larger than the interval threshold for 95 % confidence level after shuffling precipitation records many times. By comparison, the daily precipitation records exhibit weak positively long-range correlation in a power law fashion mainly at the stations taking on zonal distributions in south China, upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River, northern part of northeast China. This may be related to the subtropical high. Furthermore, the values of scaling exponent which cannot pass the significance test do not show a clear distribution pattern. It seems that the stations are mainly distributed in coastal areas, southwest China, and southern part of north China. In fact, many complicated factors may affect the scaling behaviors of precipitation such as the system of the east and south Asian monsoon, the interaction between sea and land, and the big landform of the Tibetan Plateau. These results may provide a better prerequisite to long-term predictor of precipitation time series for different regions over China.

  18. Limiting distribution for the maximal standardized increment of a random walk

    OpenAIRE

    Kabluchko, Zakhar; Wang, Yizao

    2012-01-01

    Let $X_1,X_2,...$ be independent identically distributed random variables with $\\mathbb E X_k=0$, $\\mathrm{Var} X_k=1$. Suppose that $\\varphi(t):=\\log \\mathbb E e^{t X_k}-\\sigma_0$ and some $\\sigma_0>0$. Let $S_k=X_1+...+X_k$ and $S_0=0$. We are interested in the limiting distribution of the multiscale scan statistic $$ M_n=\\max_{0\\leq i 0$. We argue that our results cover most interesting distributions with light tails.

  19. Spatial distribution and frequency of precipitation during an extreme event: July 2006 mesoscale convective complexes and floods in southeastern Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, P.G.; Magirl, C.S.; Webb, R.H.; Pytlak, E.; Troch, Peter A.; Lyon, S.W.

    2009-01-01

    An extreme, multiday rainfall event over southeastern Arizona during 27-31 July 2006 caused record flooding and a historically unprecedented number of slope failures and debris flows in the Santa Catalina Mountains north of Tucson. An unusual synoptic weather pattern induced repeated nocturnal mesoscale convective systems over southeastern Arizona for five continuous days, generating multiday rainfall totals up to 360 mm. Analysis of point rainfall and weather radar data yielded storm totals for the southern Santa Catalina Mountains at 754 grid cells approximately 1 km ?? 1 km in size. Precipitation intensity for the 31 July storms was not unusual for typical monsoonal precipitation in this region (recurrence interval (RI) 50 years and individual grid cells had RI exceeding 1000 years. The 31 July storms caused the watersheds to be essentially saturated following 4 days of rainfall. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  20. Thermodynamic method for generating random stress distributions on an earthquake fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barall, Michael; Harris, Ruth A.

    2012-01-01

    This report presents a new method for generating random stress distributions on an earthquake fault, suitable for use as initial conditions in a dynamic rupture simulation. The method employs concepts from thermodynamics and statistical mechanics. A pattern of fault slip is considered to be analogous to a micro-state of a thermodynamic system. The energy of the micro-state is taken to be the elastic energy stored in the surrounding medium. Then, the Boltzmann distribution gives the probability of a given pattern of fault slip and stress. We show how to decompose the system into independent degrees of freedom, which makes it computationally feasible to select a random state. However, due to the equipartition theorem, straightforward application of the Boltzmann distribution leads to a divergence which predicts infinite stress. To avoid equipartition, we show that the finite strength of the fault acts to restrict the possible states of the system. By analyzing a set of earthquake scaling relations, we derive a new formula for the expected power spectral density of the stress distribution, which allows us to construct a computer algorithm free of infinities. We then present a new technique for controlling the extent of the rupture by generating a random stress distribution thousands of times larger than the fault surface, and selecting a portion which, by chance, has a positive stress perturbation of the desired size. Finally, we present a new two-stage nucleation method that combines a small zone of forced rupture with a larger zone of reduced fracture energy.

  1. Inertial particles distribute in turbulence as Poissonian points with random intensity inducing clustering and supervoiding

    CERN Document Server

    Schmidt, Lukas; Holzner, Markus

    2016-01-01

    This work considers the distribution of inertial particles in turbulence using the point-particle approximation. We demonstrate that the random point process formed by the positions of particles in space is a Poisson point process with log-normal random intensity ("log Gaussian Cox process" or LGCP). The probability of having a finite number of particles in a small volume is given in terms of the characteristic function of a log-normal distribution. Corrections due to discreteness of the number of particles to the previously derived statistics of particle concentration in the continuum limit are provided. These are relevant for dealing with experimental or numerical data. The probability of having regions without particles, i.e. voids, is larger for inertial particles than for tracer particles where voids are distributed according to Poisson processes. Further, the probability of having large voids decays only log-normally with size. This shows that particles cluster, leaving voids behind. At scales where the...

  2. Generating log-normally distributed random numbers by using the Ziggurat algorithm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Jong Soo [KINS, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    Uncertainty analyses are usually based on the Monte Carlo method. Using an efficient random number generator(RNG) is a key element in success of Monte Carlo simulations. Log-normal distributed variates are very typical in NPP PSAs. This paper proposes an approach to generate log normally distributed variates based on the Ziggurat algorithm and evaluates the efficiency of the proposed Ziggurat RNG. The proposed RNG can be helpful to improve the uncertainty analysis of NPP PSAs. This paper focuses on evaluating the efficiency of the Ziggurat algorithm from a NPP PSA point of view. From this study, we can draw the following conclusions. - The Ziggurat algorithm is one of perfect random number generators to product normal distributed variates. - The Ziggurat algorithm is computationally much faster than the most commonly used method, Marsaglia polar method.

  3. Online distribution channel increases article usage on Mendeley: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kudlow, Paul; Cockerill, Matthew; Toccalino, Danielle; Dziadyk, Devin Bissky; Rutledge, Alan; Shachak, Aviv; McIntyre, Roger S; Ravindran, Arun; Eysenbach, Gunther

    2017-01-01

    Prior research shows that article reader counts (i.e. saves) on the online reference manager, Mendeley, correlate to future citations. There are currently no evidenced-based distribution strategies that have been shown to increase article saves on Mendeley. We conducted a 4-week randomized controlled trial to examine how promotion of article links in a novel online cross-publisher distribution channel (TrendMD) affect article saves on Mendeley. Four hundred articles published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research were randomized to either the TrendMD arm (n = 200) or the control arm (n = 200) of the study. Our primary outcome compares the 4-week mean Mendeley saves of articles randomized to TrendMD versus control. Articles randomized to TrendMD showed a 77% increase in article saves on Mendeley relative to control. The difference in mean Mendeley saves for TrendMD articles versus control was 2.7, 95% CI (2.63, 2.77), and statistically significant (p distribution channel (TrendMD) enhances article saves on Mendeley. While replication and further study are needed, these data suggest that cross-publisher article recommendations via TrendMD may enhance citations of scholarly articles.

  4. A Permutation-Randomization Approach to Test the Spatial Distribution of Plant Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lione, G; Gonthier, P

    2016-01-01

    The analysis of the spatial distribution of plant diseases requires the availability of trustworthy geostatistical methods. The mean distance tests (MDT) are here proposed as a series of permutation and randomization tests to assess the spatial distribution of plant diseases when the variable of phytopathological interest is categorical. A user-friendly software to perform the tests is provided. Estimates of power and type I error, obtained with Monte Carlo simulations, showed the reliability of the MDT (power > 0.80; type I error pathogens causing root rot on conifers was successfully performed by verifying the consistency between the MDT responses and previously published data. An application of the MDT was carried out to analyze the relation between the plantation density and the distribution of the infection of Gnomoniopsis castanea, an emerging fungal pathogen causing nut rot on sweet chestnut. Trees carrying nuts infected by the pathogen were randomly distributed in areas with different plantation densities, suggesting that the distribution of G. castanea was not related to the plantation density. The MDT could be used to analyze the spatial distribution of plant diseases both in agricultural and natural ecosystems.

  5. Micromechanical Modeling of Fiber-Reinforced Composites with Statistically Equivalent Random Fiber Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenzhi Wang

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Modeling the random fiber distribution of a fiber-reinforced composite is of great importance for studying the progressive failure behavior of the material on the micro scale. In this paper, we develop a new algorithm for generating random representative volume elements (RVEs with statistical equivalent fiber distribution against the actual material microstructure. The realistic statistical data is utilized as inputs of the new method, which is archived through implementation of the probability equations. Extensive statistical analysis is conducted to examine the capability of the proposed method and to compare it with existing methods. It is found that the proposed method presents a good match with experimental results in all aspects including the nearest neighbor distance, nearest neighbor orientation, Ripley’s K function, and the radial distribution function. Finite element analysis is presented to predict the effective elastic properties of a carbon/epoxy composite, to validate the generated random representative volume elements, and to provide insights of the effect of fiber distribution on the elastic properties. The present algorithm is shown to be highly accurate and can be used to generate statistically equivalent RVEs for not only fiber-reinforced composites but also other materials such as foam materials and particle-reinforced composites.

  6. Random effects modeling of multiple binomial responses using the multivariate binomial logit-normal distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coull, B A; Agresti, A

    2000-03-01

    The multivariate binomial logit-normal distribution is a mixture distribution for which, (i) conditional on a set of success probabilities and sample size indices, a vector of counts is independent binomial variates, and (ii) the vector of logits of the parameters has a multivariate normal distribution. We use this distribution to model multivariate binomial-type responses using a vector of random effects. The vector of logits of parameters has a mean that is a linear function of explanatory variables and has an unspecified or partly specified covariance matrix. The model generalizes and provides greater flexibility than the univariate model that uses a normal random effect to account for positive correlations in clustered data. The multivariate model is useful when different elements of the response vector refer to different characteristics, each of which may naturally have its own random effect. It is also useful for repeated binary measurement of a single response when there is a nonexchangeable association structure, such as one often expects with longitudinal data or when negative association exists for at least one pair of responses. We apply the model to an influenza study with repeated responses in which some pairs are negatively associated and to a developmental toxicity study with continuation-ratio logits applied to an ordinal response with clustered observations.

  7. Broadband supercontinuum light source seeded by random distributed feedback fiber laser

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, R.; Rao, Y. J.; Zhang, W. L.; Wu, H.; Zeng, X.

    2017-04-01

    A novel broadband light source based on supercontinuum (SC) generation seeded by random distributed feedback fiber laser (RFL) is proposed and demonstrated for the first time. A half-opened fiber cavity formed by FBG and TrueWave fiber is used to generate random lasing and SC simultaneously. Experimental results indicate that RFL can be used as an effective pump for generation of SC. SC with 20-dB bandwidth of >250 nm was obtained. Such a broadband SC light source seeded by RFL may pave a way to generate high power broadband RFLs for use in optical sensing and measurement.

  8. On the Marginal Distribution of the Diagonal Blocks in a Blocked Wishart Random Matrix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kjetil B. Halvorsen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Let A be a (m1+m2×(m1+m2 blocked Wishart random matrix with diagonal blocks of orders m1×m1 and m2×m2. The goal of the paper is to find the exact marginal distribution of the two diagonal blocks of A. We find an expression for this marginal density involving the matrix-variate generalized hypergeometric function. We became interested in this problem because of an application in spatial interpolation of random fields of positive definite matrices, where this result will be used for parameter estimation, using composite likelihood methods.

  9. Resonant Scattering of Acoustic Phonons by Randomly Distributed Two-Level Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayanuma, Yosuke; Yamada, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Satoshi

    1985-07-01

    A Green function formalism is developed for the resonant scattering of acoustic phonons by randomly distributed two-level systems. The randomness is treated by the coherent potential approximation. The theory reproduces the Jacobsen-Stevens dispersion law in the dense limit of the concentration of the two-level system and the results obtained so far by the average t-matrix approximation in the dilute limit. The gradual change of the character of the resonantly scattered phonons as the concentration is varied is investigated through the calculation of various quantities such as the phonon density of states, the neutron scattering cross sections and the sound velocity.

  10. Large-Scale Control of the Probability Distribution Function of Precipitation over the Continental US in Observations and Models, in the Current and Future Climat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straus, D. M.

    2016-12-01

    The goals of this research are to: (a) identify features of the probability distribution function (pdf) of pentad precipitation over the continental US (CONUS) that are controlled by the configuration of the large-scale fields, including both tails of the pdf, hence droughts and floods, and the overall shape of the pdf, e.g. skewness and kurtosis; (b) estimate the changes in the properties of the pdf controlled by the large-scale in a future climate. We first describe the significant dependence of the observed precipitation pdf conditioned on circulation regimes over CONUS. The regime states, and the number of regimes, are obtained by a method that assures a high degree of significance, and a high degree of pattern correlation between the states in a regime and its average. The regime-conditioned pdfs yield information on times scales from intra-seasonal to inter-annual. We then apply this method to atmospheric simulations run with the EC-Earth version 3 model for historical sea-surface temperatures (SST) and future (RCP8.5 CMIP5 scenario) estimates of SST, at resolutions T255 and T799, to understand what dynamically controlled changes in the precipitation pdf can be expected in a future climate.

  11. Inertial particles distribute in turbulence as Poissonian points with random intensity inducing clustering and supervoiding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Lukas; Fouxon, Itzhak; Holzner, Markus

    2017-07-01

    This work considers the distribution of discrete inertial particles in turbulence. We demonstrate that even for weak inertia the distribution can be strongly different from the Poisson distribution that holds for tracers. We study the cases of weak inertia or strong gravity where single-valued particle flow holds in space. In these cases, the particles distribute over a random multifractal attractor in space. This attractor is characterized by fractal dimensions describing scaling exponents of moments of number of particles inside a ball with size much smaller than the viscous scale of turbulence. Previous studies used a continuum approach to the moments which requires having a large number of particles below the viscous scale. This condition often does not hold in practice; for instance, for water droplets in clouds there is typically one droplet per viscous scale. This condition is also hard to realize in numerical simulations. In this work, we overcome this difficulty by deriving the probability pl(k ) of having k particles in a ball of small radius l for which the continuum approximation may not hold. We demonstrate that the random point process formed by positions of particles' centers in space is a Poisson point process with log-normal random intensity (the so-called log Gaussian Cox process or LGCP). This gives pl(k ) in terms of the characteristic function of a log-normal distribution from which the moments are derived. This allows finding the correlation dimension relevant for statistics of particles' collisions. The case of zero number of particles provides the statistics of the size of voids—regions without particles—that were not studied previously. The probability of voids is increased compared to a random distribution of particles because preferential concentration of inertial particles implies voids in the deserted regions. Thus voids and preferential concentration are different reflections of the same phenomena. In the limit of tracers with zero

  12. Modeling nonstationary extreme value distributions with nonlinear functions: An application using multiple precipitation projections for U.S. cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Um, Myoung-Jin; Kim, Yeonjoo; Markus, Momcilo; Wuebbles, Donald J.

    2017-09-01

    Climate extremes, such as heavy precipitation events, have become more common in recent decades, and nonstationarity concepts have increasingly been adopted to model hydrologic extremes. Various issues are associated with applying nonstationary modeling to extremes, and in this study, we focus on assessing the need for different forms of nonlinear functions in a nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) model of different annual maximum precipitation (AMP) time series. Moreover, we suggest an efficient approach for selecting the nonlinear functions of a nonstationary GEV model. Based on observed and multiple projected AMP data for eight cities across the U.S., three separate tasks are proposed. First, we conduct trend and stationarity tests for the observed and projected data. Second, AMP series are fit with thirty different nonlinear functions, and the best functions among these are selected. Finally, the selected nonlinear functions are used to model the location parameter of a nonstationary GEV model and stationary and nonstationary GEV models with a linear function. Our results suggest that the simple use of nonlinear functions might prove useful with nonstationary GEV models of AMP for different locations with different types of model results.

  13. Optimum signal input distribution design in the presence of random pointing jitter for intersatellite optical communications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xin; Ma, Jing; Yu, Siyuan; Tan, Liying; Shen, Tao

    2013-02-01

    Channel capacity is widely investigated for free space optical links to approach high-speed data-rate communication. Instead of traditional equiprobable binary symbol input distribution, an optimum input distribution is proposed with respect to channel capacity by maximizing mutual information for intersatellite optical communications in the presence of random pointing jitter. It is shown that the optimum input distribution varies with the variance of pointing jitter σ and laser beam divergence angle w0 and the normalized intensity threshold IT. For traditional normalized intensity threshold IT=0.5, the optimum input distribution ranges from about p(x=0)=0.52 for weak pointing jitter to about p(x=0)=0.24 for strong pointing jitter given the same laser beam divergence angle. The results obtained in this paper will be useful for intersatellite optical communication system design.

  14. Performance Analysis of 5G Transmission over Fading Channels with Random IG Distributed LOS Components

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dejan Jaksic

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical modelling of the behavior of the radio propagation at mmWave bands is crucial to the development of transmission and reception algorithms of new 5G systems. In this study we will model 5G propagation in nondeterministic line-of-sight (LOS conditions, when the random nature of LOS component ratio will be observed as Inverse Gamma (IG distributed process. Closed-form expressions will be presented for the probability density function (PDF and cumulative distribution function (CDF of such random process. Further, closed-form expressions will be provided for important performance measures such as level crossing rate (LCR and average fade duration (AFD. Capitalizing on proposed expressions, LCR and AFD will be discussed in the function of transmission parameters.

  15. Crossing probability for directed polymers in random media. II. Exact tail of the distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Luca, Andrea; Le Doussal, Pierre

    2016-03-01

    We study the probability p ≡ p(η)(t) that two directed polymers in a given random potential η and with fixed and nearby endpoints do not cross until time t. This probability is itself a random variable (over samples η), which, as we show, acquires a very broad probability distribution at large time. In particular, the moments of p are found to be dominated by atypical samples where p is of order unity. Building on a formula established by us in a previous work using nested Bethe ansatz and Macdonald process methods, we obtain analytically the leading large time behavior of all moments p(m) ≃ γ(m)/t. From this, we extract the exact tail ∼ρ(p)/t of the probability distribution of the noncrossing probability at large time. The exact formula is compared to numerical simulations, with excellent agreement.

  16. A trophallaxis inspired model for distributed transport between randomly interacting agents

    CERN Document Server

    Gräwer, Johannes; Mazza, Marco G; Katifori, Eleni

    2016-01-01

    A trophallaxis inspired model for distributed transport between randomly interacting agents Trophallaxis, the regurgitation and mouth to mouth transfer of liquid food between members of eusocial insect societies, is an important process that allows the fast and efficient dissemination of food in the colony. Trophallactic systems are typically treated as a network of agent interactions. This approach, though valuable, does not easily lend itself to analytic predictions. In this work we consider a simple trophallactic system of randomly interacting agents with finite carrying capacity, and calculate analytically and via a series of simulations the global food intake rate for the whole colony as well as observables describing how uniformly the food is distributed within the nest. Our work serves as a stepping stone to describing the collective properties of more complex trophallactic systems, such as those including division of labor between foragers and workers.

  17. Shear elastic modulus of magnetic gels with random distribution of magnetizable particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iskakova, L. Yu; Zubarev, A. Yu

    2017-04-01

    Magnetic gels present new type of composite materials with rich set of uniquie physical properties, which find active applications in many industrial and bio-medical technologies. We present results of mathematically strict theoretical study of elastic modulus of these systems with randomly distributed magnetizable particles in an elastic medium. The results show that an external magnetic field can pronouncedly increase the shear modulus of these composites.

  18. The Sensitivity of Simulated Central U.S. Summer Precipitation and Atmospheric Moisture Budget to Both the Spatial Distribution and the Amount of Initial Soil Moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, C. P.; Georgescu, M.; Avissar, R.; Walko, B.

    2002-12-01

    We quantify the relative influences of initial soil moisture amount and initial soil moisture spatial distribution on future simulated precipitation, and the other components of the atmospheric water vapor budget, over the central U.S. A series of Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) simulations have been made for a domain covering the U.S. Great Plains and southwest for July 1995, 1996, and 1997. Control simulations are initialized with soil moisture and temperature from the NCEP reanalysis, as well as with soil texture and soil hydraulic properties from the LDAS database, and are validated against various datasets including precipitation observations from the Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center(ABRFC). 10 additional RAMS simulations for each of the three Julys investigate the relative sensitivity of simulated evaporation, precipitation, horizontal atmospheric moisture flux and flux divergence, and atmospheric storage during that month to both the initial domain-average soil moisture amount and the spatial distribution of that initial soil moisture. Lastly, we investigate the further sensitivity to the choice of two convective parameterizations. We find that regional hydrometeorology is sensitive to both the spatial pattern and the amount of initial soil moisture, because changes in spatial variability produce changes in, and feedbacks on, large-scale dynamical factors such as zonal and meridional moisture transport. These three-dimensional dynamical effects interact with the one-dimensional (vertical thermodynamic) convective feedbacks. This sensitivity is greatest in relatively drier initial soil moisture regimes. In addition, the results are significantly sensitive to the choice of convective parameterization.

  19. Effects of grassland degradation and precipitation on carbon storage distributions in a semi-arid temperate grassland of Inner Mongolia, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaobing; Bai, Yunxiao; Wen, Wanyu; Wang, Hong; Li, Ruihua; Li, Guoqing; Wang, Han

    2017-11-01

    Environmental degradation influences carbon (C) cycling and storage in grassland ecosystems by altering vegetation productivity. However, the impacts of different degradation intensities on vegetation-soil C distributions in grasslands have not been well documented. We measured C storage in soil, roots, and plants under light, moderate, and severe degradation levels in a typical steppe region of Xilinhot, Inner Mongolia, China in 2011 and 2012. Grassland C storage was highest in soil, followed by roots, and then aboveground plant biomass. Grassland degradation and precipitation significantly influenced C storage distributions. During the dry year (2011), total C storage in vegetation and soil was highest under light degradation. Carbon storage in aboveground plant biomass and roots increased with degradation intensity. During the wet year (2012), C storage was highest in aboveground plant biomass and roots under light degradation. Root biomass tended to be concentrated in the soil surface during the wet year.

  20. Distributed Fusion Filtering in Networked Systems with Random Measurement Matrices and Correlated Noises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raquel Caballero-Águila

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The distributed fusion state estimation problem is addressed for sensor network systems with random state transition matrix and random measurement matrices, which provide a unified framework to consider some network-induced random phenomena. The process noise and all the sensor measurement noises are assumed to be one-step autocorrelated and different sensor noises are one-step cross-correlated; also, the process noise and each sensor measurement noise are two-step cross-correlated. These correlation assumptions cover many practical situations, where the classical independence hypothesis is not realistic. Using an innovation methodology, local least-squares linear filtering estimators are recursively obtained at each sensor. The distributed fusion method is then used to form the optimal matrix-weighted sum of these local filters according to the mean squared error criterion. A numerical simulation example shows the accuracy of the proposed distributed fusion filtering algorithm and illustrates some of the network-induced stochastic uncertainties that can be dealt with in the current system model, such as sensor gain degradation, missing measurements, and multiplicative noise.

  1. Generation mechanism of nonlinear ultrasonic Lamb waves in thin plates with randomly distributed micro-cracks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Youxuan; Li, Feilong; Cao, Peng; Liu, Yaolu; Zhang, Jianyu; Fu, Shaoyun; Zhang, Jun; Hu, Ning

    2017-08-01

    Since the identification of micro-cracks in engineering materials is very valuable in understanding the initial and slight changes in mechanical properties of materials under complex working environments, numerical simulations on the propagation of the low frequency S 0 Lamb wave in thin plates with randomly distributed micro-cracks were performed to study the behavior of nonlinear Lamb waves. The results showed that while the influence of the randomly distributed micro-cracks on the phase velocity of the low frequency S 0 fundamental waves could be neglected, significant ultrasonic nonlinear effects caused by the randomly distributed micro-cracks was discovered, which mainly presented as a second harmonic generation. By using a Monte Carlo simulation method, we found that the acoustic nonlinear parameter increased linearly with the micro-crack density and the size of micro-crack zone, and it was also related to the excitation frequency and friction coefficient of the micro-crack surfaces. In addition, it was found that the nonlinear effect of waves reflected by the micro-cracks was more noticeable than that of the transmitted waves. This study theoretically reveals that the low frequency S 0 mode of Lamb waves can be used as the fundamental waves to quantitatively identify micro-cracks in thin plates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Quantum tunneling recombination in a system of randomly distributed trapped electrons and positive ions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagonis, Vasilis; Kulp, Christopher; Chaney, Charity-Grace; Tachiya, M

    2017-09-13

    During the past 10 years, quantum tunneling has been established as one of the dominant mechanisms for recombination in random distributions of electrons and positive ions, and in many dosimetric materials. Specifically quantum tunneling has been shown to be closely associated with two important effects in luminescence materials, namely long term afterglow luminescence and anomalous fading. Two of the common assumptions of quantum tunneling models based on random distributions of electrons and positive ions are: (a) An electron tunnels from a donor to the nearest acceptor, and (b) the concentration of electrons is much lower than that of positive ions at all times during the tunneling process. This paper presents theoretical studies for arbitrary relative concentrations of electrons and positive ions in the solid. Two new differential equations are derived which describe the loss of charge in the solid by tunneling, and they are solved analytically. The analytical solution compares well with the results of Monte Carlo simulations carried out in a random distribution of electrons and positive ions. Possible experimental implications of the model are discussed for tunneling phenomena in long term afterglow signals, and also for anomalous fading studies in feldspars and apatite samples.

  3. Non-random distribution of instability-associated chromosomal rearrangement breakpoints in human lymphoblastoid cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, Stephen R. [Environmental Toxicology Graduate Program, Department of Cell Biology and Neuroscience, University of California, Riverside, CA (United States); Radiation and Genome Stability Unit, Medical Research Council, Harwell, Oxfordshire (United Kingdom); Papworth, David [Radiation and Genome Stability Unit, Medical Research Council, Harwell, Oxfordshire (United Kingdom); Grosovsky, Andrew J. [Environmental Toxicology Graduate Program, Department of Cell Biology and Neuroscience, University of California, Riverside, CA (United States)]. E-mail: Grosovsky@ucr.edu

    2006-08-30

    Genomic instability is observed in tumors and in a large fraction of the progeny surviving irradiation. One of the best-characterized phenotypic manifestations of genomic instability is delayed chromosome aberrations. Our working hypothesis for the current study was that if genomic instability is in part attributable to cis mechanisms, we should observe a non-random distribution of chromosomes or sites involved in instability-associated rearrangements, regardless of radiation quality, dose, or trans factor expression. We report here the karyotypic examination of 296 instability-associated chromosomal rearrangement breaksites (IACRB) from 118 unstable TK6 human B lymphoblast, and isogenic derivative, clones. When we tested whether IACRB were distributed across the chromosomes based on target size, a significant non-random distribution was evident (p < 0.00001), and three IACRB hotspots (chromosomes 11, 12, and 22) and one IACRB coldspot (chromosome 2) were identified. Statistical analysis at the chromosomal band-level identified four IACRB hotspots accounting for 20% of all instability-associated breaks, two of which account for over 14% of all IACRB. Further, analysis of independent clones provided evidence within 14 individual clones of IACRB clustering at the chromosomal band level, suggesting a predisposition for further breaks after an initial break at some chromosomal bands. All of these events, independently, or when taken together, were highly unlikely to have occurred by chance (p < 0.000001). These IACRB band-level cluster hotspots were observed independent of radiation quality, dose, or cellular p53 status. The non-random distribution of instability-associated chromosomal rearrangements described here significantly differs from the distribution that was observed in a first-division post-irradiation metaphase analysis (p = 0.0004). Taken together, these results suggest that genomic instability may be in part driven by chromosomal cis mechanisms.

  4. Modeling Dissolution and Precipitation Dynamics During Dedolomitization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edery, Y.; Scher, H.; Berkowitz, B.

    2010-12-01

    We simulate the process of dedolomitization and the precipitation of calcium carbonate using particle tracking. The study is stimulated by the results of a laboratory experiment of reactive transport of injected CaCl2/HCl in a constant flow field in a column of sucrosic dolomite particles. The injected fluid basically supplied Ca2+ and H+ and the dedolomitization is a protonation reaction yielding carbonic acid, which in a deprotonation reaction yields CO32-, and reacting with the abundant Ca2+ forms the precipitate CaCO3. The novelty of the simulation is to treat the dynamics of the rate limiting reactants with particle tracking. At each time step the local concentration of H+ determines the probability (assuming local carbonate equilibria) of precipitation and dissolution. The precipitation changes the porosity which in turn changes the local flow field. The particle tracking is governed by spatial and temporal distributions within a continuous time random walk framework. This includes the option of either advective-dispersive (Fickian) transport or the effects of disorder of heterogeneous media --- non-Fickian behavior. The dynamics of dedolomitization are examined for different flow conditions and for different spectra of velocity tails of the reactants. The fluctuations in the local velocity distributions, due to porosity changes, create conditions for positive feedbacks leading to preferential pathways and large-scale nonlinearity and precipitation banding. This feature has been observed in the laboratory experiments and is now accounted for by the simulation results at similar time frames, velocities and pH levels.

  5. Spatial distribution of random velocity inhomogeneities in the western part of Nankai subduction zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, T.; Obana, K.; Yamamoto, Y.; Nakanishi, A.; Kodaira, S.; Kaneda, Y.

    2011-12-01

    In the Nankai trough, there are three seismogenic zones of megathrust earthquakes (Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes). Lithospheric structures in and around these seismogenic zones are important for the studies on mutual interactions and synchronization of their fault ruptures. Recent studies on seismic wave scattering at high frequencies (>1Hz) make it possible to estimate 3D distributions of random inhomogeneities (or scattering coefficient) in the lithosphere, and clarified that random inhomogeneity is one of the important medium properties related to microseismicity and damaged structure near the fault zone [Asano & Hasegawa, 2004; Takahashi et al. 2009]. This study estimates the spatial distribution of the power spectral density function (PSDF) of random inhomogeneities the western part of Nankai subduction zone, and examines the relations with crustal velocity structure and seismic activity. Seismic waveform data used in this study are those recorded at seismic stations of Hi-net & F-net operated by NIED, and 160 ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs) deployed at Hyuga-nada region from Dec. 2008 to Jan. 2009. This OBS observation was conducted by JAMSTEC as a part of "Research concerning Interaction Between the Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai Earthquakes" funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan. Spatial distribution of random inhomogeneities is estimated by the inversion analysis of the peak delay time of small earthquakes [Takahashi et al. 2009], where the peak delay time is defined as the time lag from the S-wave onset to its maximal amplitude arrival. We assumed the von Karman type functional form for the PSDF. Peak delay times are measured from root mean squared envelopes at 4-8Hz, 8-16Hz and 16-32Hz. Inversion result can be summarized as follows. Random inhomogeneities beneath the Quaternary volcanoes are characterized by strong inhomogeneities at small spatial scale (~ a few hundreds meter) and weak spectral gradient

  6. A Hardware Efficient Random Number Generator for Nonuniform Distributions with Arbitrary Precision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian de Schryver

    2012-01-01

    number generators is a very active research field. However, most state-of-the-art architectures are either tailored to specific distributions or use up a lot of hardware resources. At ReConFig 2010, we have presented a new design that saves up to 48% of area compared to state-of-the-art inversion-based implementation, usable for arbitrary distributions and precision. In this paper, we introduce a more flexible version together with a refined segmentation scheme that allows to further reduce the approximation error significantly. We provide a free software tool allowing users to implement their own distributions easily, and we have tested our random number generator thoroughly by statistic analysis and two application tests.

  7. Multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled phase III study of pyridoxalated hemoglobin polyoxyethylene in distributive shock (PHOENIX).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Jean-Louis; Privalle, Christopher T; Singer, Mervyn; Lorente, José A; Boehm, Erwin; Meier-Hellmann, Andreas; Darius, Harald; Ferrer, Ricard; Sirvent, Josep-Maria; Marx, Gernot; DeAngelo, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    To compare the effectiveness and safety of the hemoglobin-based nitric oxide scavenger, pyridoxalated hemoglobin polyoxyethylene, against placebo in patients with vasopressor-dependent distributive shock. Multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled, open-label study. Sixty-one participating ICUs in six European countries (Austria, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, and United Kingdom). All patients admitted with distributive shock, defined as the presence of at least two systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria, persisting norepinephrine dependence and evidence of organ dysfunction/hypoperfusion despite adequate fluid resuscitation. Patients were randomized to receive 0.25 mL/kg/hr pyridoxalated hemoglobin polyoxyethylene (20 mg Hb/kg/hr) or an equal volume of placebo, infused for up to 150 hours, in addition to conventional vasopressor therapy. The study was stopped after interim analysis showed higher mortality in the pyridoxalated hemoglobin polyoxyethylene group and an increased prevalence of adverse events. At this time, 377 patients had been randomized to pyridoxalated hemoglobin polyoxyethylene (n = 183) or placebo (n = 194). Age, gender, type of patient (medical/surgical), and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores were similar between groups. Twenty-eight-day mortality rate was 44.3% in the pyridoxalated hemoglobin polyoxyethylene group versus 37.6% in the placebo group (OR, 1.29; 95% CI, 0.85-1.95; p = 0.227). In patients with higher organ dysfunction scores (Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment > 13), mortality rates were significantly higher in the pyridoxalated hemoglobin polyoxyethylene group when compared with those in placebo-treated patients (60.9% vs 39.2%; p = 0.014). Survivors who received pyridoxalated hemoglobin polyoxyethylene had a longer vasopressor-free time (21.3 vs 19.7 d; p = 0.035). In this randomized, controlled phase III trial in patients with vasopressor-dependent distributive shock

  8. ERROR DISTRIBUTION EVALUATION OF THE THIRD VANISHING POINT BASED ON RANDOM STATISTICAL SIMULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Li

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available POS, integrated by GPS / INS (Inertial Navigation Systems, has allowed rapid and accurate determination of position and attitude of remote sensing equipment for MMS (Mobile Mapping Systems. However, not only does INS have system error, but also it is very expensive. Therefore, in this paper error distributions of vanishing points are studied and tested in order to substitute INS for MMS in some special land-based scene, such as ground façade where usually only two vanishing points can be detected. Thus, the traditional calibration approach based on three orthogonal vanishing points is being challenged. In this article, firstly, the line clusters, which parallel to each others in object space and correspond to the vanishing points, are detected based on RANSAC (Random Sample Consensus and parallelism geometric constraint. Secondly, condition adjustment with parameters is utilized to estimate nonlinear error equations of two vanishing points (VX, VY. How to set initial weights for the adjustment solution of single image vanishing points is presented. Solving vanishing points and estimating their error distributions base on iteration method with variable weights, co-factor matrix and error ellipse theory. Thirdly, under the condition of known error ellipses of two vanishing points (VX, VY and on the basis of the triangle geometric relationship of three vanishing points, the error distribution of the third vanishing point (VZ is calculated and evaluated by random statistical simulation with ignoring camera distortion. Moreover, Monte Carlo methods utilized for random statistical estimation are presented. Finally, experimental results of vanishing points coordinate and their error distributions are shown and analyzed.

  9. Complementarity between entanglement-assisted and quantum distributed random access code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hameedi, Alley; Saha, Debashis; Mironowicz, Piotr; Pawłowski, Marcin; Bourennane, Mohamed

    2017-05-01

    Collaborative communication tasks such as random access codes (RACs) employing quantum resources have manifested great potential in enhancing information processing capabilities beyond the classical limitations. The two quantum variants of RACs, namely, quantum random access code (QRAC) and the entanglement-assisted random access code (EARAC), have demonstrated equal prowess for a number of tasks. However, there do exist specific cases where one outperforms the other. In this article, we study a family of 3 →1 distributed RACs [J. Bowles, N. Brunner, and M. Pawłowski, Phys. Rev. A 92, 022351 (2015), 10.1103/PhysRevA.92.022351] and present its general construction of both the QRAC and the EARAC. We demonstrate that, depending on the function of inputs that is sought, if QRAC achieves the maximal success probability then EARAC fails to do so and vice versa. Moreover, a tripartite Bell-type inequality associated with the EARAC variants reveals the genuine multipartite nonlocality exhibited by our protocol. We conclude with an experimental realization of the 3 →1 distributed QRAC that achieves higher success probabilities than the maximum possible with EARACs for a number of tasks.

  10. Three-dimensional distribution of random velocity inhomogeneities at the Nankai trough seismogenic zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, T.; Obana, K.; Yamamoto, Y.; Nakanishi, A.; Kaiho, Y.; Kodaira, S.; Kaneda, Y.

    2012-12-01

    The Nankai trough in southwestern Japan is a convergent margin where the Philippine sea plate is subducted beneath the Eurasian plate. There are major faults segments of huge earthquakes that are called Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes. According to the earthquake occurrence history over the past hundreds years, we must expect various rupture patters such as simultaneous or nearly continuous ruptures of plural fault segments. Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) conducted seismic surveys at Nankai trough in order to clarify mutual relations between seismic structures and fault segments, as a part of "Research concerning Interaction Between the Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai Earthquakes" funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan. This study evaluated the spatial distribution of random velocity inhomogeneities from Hyuga-nada to Kii-channel by using velocity seismograms of small and moderate sized earthquakes. Random velocity inhomogeneities are estimated by the peak delay time analysis of S-wave envelopes (e.g., Takahashi et al. 2009). Peak delay time is defined as the time lag from the S-wave onset to its maximal amplitude arrival. This quantity mainly reflects the accumulated multiple forward scattering effect due to random inhomogeneities, and is quite insensitive to the inelastic attenuation. Peak delay times are measured from the rms envelopes of horizontal components at 4-8Hz, 8-16Hz and 16-32Hz. This study used the velocity seismograms that are recorded by 495 ocean bottom seismographs and 378 onshore seismic stations. Onshore stations are composed of the F-net and Hi-net stations that are maintained by National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) of Japan. It is assumed that the random inhomogeneities are represented by the von Karman type PSDF. Preliminary result of inversion analysis shows that spectral gradient of PSDF (i.e., scale dependence of

  11. Spatiotemporal distribution and source apportionment of low molecular weight organic acids in wet precipitation at a coastal city, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Wenjiao; Hong, Zhenyu; Chen, Yanting; Deng, Junjun; Chen, Jinsheng; Xu, Lingling; Hong, Youwei; Xiao, Hang

    2017-03-01

    To investigate the characteristics and sources of low molecular weight (LMW) organic acids in wet precipitation at a coastal city, Xiamen, a total of 313 rainwater samples were collected at seven different functional areas from September 2012 to August 2013. Spatiotemporal characteristics of LMW organic acids as well as pH and electrical conductivity were analyzed. Meanwhile, air mass clusters in different seasons and the positive matrix factorization (PMF) source apportion model were comprehensively used to identify the sources of organic acids. In conclusion, the volume-weighted mean (VWM) concentration of formic (3.20 μmol/L), acetic (1.84 μmol/L), lactic (0.44 μmol/L), and oxalic acid (0.53 μmol/L) were obtained, which jointly contributed to 4.33% of the total free acidity (TFA). At the same time, the highest wet deposition flux of LMW organic acids and contribution of that to TFA were achieved at the forest protection area during growing season in Xiamen. In addition, biogenic emissions (77.12%), sea salts (13.77%), regional agriculture activities (3.92%), soil emissions (2.56%), biomass burning (1.47%), and secondary aerosols (1.15%) were determined as the source of LMW organic acids. Besides, the dominancy of biomass burning via long-range transport in non-growing season (NGS) and the contribution of biogenic emission in growing season (GS) were recognized. Finally, the considerable influence of sea salts on the LMW organic acids (13.77%) in Xiamen was quantified, especially for oxalic acid.

  12. Reflection principles for biased random walks and application to escape time distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khantha, M.; Balakrishnan, V.

    1985-12-01

    We present a reflection principle for an arbitrary biased continuous time random walk (comprising both Markovian and non-Markovian processes) in the presence of a reflecting barrier on semi-infinite and finite chains. For biased walks in the presence of a reflecting barrier this principle (which cannot be derived from combinatorics) is completely different from its familiar form in the presence of an absorbing barrier. The result enables us to obtain closed-form solutions for the Laplace transform of the conditional probability for biased walks on finite chains for all three combinations of absorbing and reflecting barriers at the two ends. An important application of these solutions is the calculation of various first-passage-time and escape-time distributions. We obtain exact results for the characteristic functions of various kinds of escape time distributions for biased random walks on finite chains. For processes governed by a long-tailed event-time distribution we show that the mean time of escape from bounded regions diverges even in the presence of a bias—suggesting, in a sense, the absence of true long-range diffusion in such "frozen" processes.

  13. Regional Analysis of Precipitation by Means of Bivariate Distribution Adjusted by Maximum Entropy; Analisis regional de precipitacion con base en una distribucion bivariada ajustada por maxima entropia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Escalante Sandoval, Carlos A.; Dominguez Esquivel, Jose Y. [Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (Mexico)

    2001-09-01

    The principle of maximum entropy (POME) is used to derive an alternative method of parameter estimation for the bivariate Gumbel distribution. A simple algorithm for this parameter estimation technique is presented. This method is applied to analyze the precipitation in a region of Mexico. Design events are compered with those obtained by the maximum likelihood procedure. According to the results, the proposed technique is a suitable option to be considered when performing frequency analysis of precipitation with small samples. [Spanish] El principio de maxima entropia, conocido como POME, es utilizado para derivar un procedimiento alternativo de estimacion de parametros de la distribucion bivariada de valores extremos con marginales Gumbel. El modelo se aplica al analisis de la precipitacion maxima en 24 horas en una region de Mexico y los eventos de diseno obtenidos son comparados con los proporcionados por la tecnica de maxima verosimilitud. De acuerdo con los resultados obtenidos, se concluye que la tecnica propuesta representa una buena opcion, sobre todo para el caso de muestras pequenas.

  14. Pure random search for ambient sensor distribution optimisation in a smart home environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poland, Michael P; Nugent, Chris D; Wang, Hui; Chen, Liming

    2011-01-01

    Smart homes are living spaces facilitated with technology to allow individuals to remain in their own homes for longer, rather than be institutionalised. Sensors are the fundamental physical layer with any smart home, as the data they generate is used to inform decision support systems, facilitating appropriate actuator actions. Positioning of sensors is therefore a fundamental characteristic of a smart home. Contemporary smart home sensor distribution is aligned to either a) a total coverage approach; b) a human assessment approach. These methods for sensor arrangement are not data driven strategies, are unempirical and frequently irrational. This Study hypothesised that sensor deployment directed by an optimisation method that utilises inhabitants' spatial frequency data as the search space, would produce more optimal sensor distributions vs. the current method of sensor deployment by engineers. Seven human engineers were tasked to create sensor distributions based on perceived utility for 9 deployment scenarios. A Pure Random Search (PRS) algorithm was then tasked to create matched sensor distributions. The PRS method produced superior distributions in 98.4% of test cases (n=64) against human engineer instructed deployments when the engineers had no access to the spatial frequency data, and in 92.0% of test cases (n=64) when engineers had full access to these data. These results thus confirmed the hypothesis.

  15. Distributed Detection of Randomly Located Targets in Mobility-Assisted Sensor Networks with Node Mobility Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jayaweera SudharmanK

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Performance gain achieved by adding mobile nodes to a stationary sensor network for target detection depends on factors such as the number of mobile nodes deployed, mobility patterns, speed and energy constraints of mobile nodes, and the nature of the target locations (deterministic or random. In this paper, we address the problem of distributed detection of a randomly located target by a hybrid sensor network. Specifically, we develop two decision-fusion architectures for detection where in the first one, impact of node mobility is taken into account for decisions updating at the fusion center, while in the second model the impact of node mobility is taken at the node level decision updating. The cost of deploying mobile nodes is analyzed in terms of the minimum fraction of mobile nodes required to achieve the desired performance level within a desired delay constraint. Moreover, we consider managing node mobility under given constraints.

  16. Hacking on decoy-state quantum key distribution system with partial phase randomization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Shi-Hai; Jiang, Mu-Sheng; Ma, Xiang-Chun; Li, Chun-Yan; Liang, Lin-Mei

    2014-04-01

    Quantum key distribution (QKD) provides means for unconditional secure key transmission between two distant parties. However, in practical implementations, it suffers from quantum hacking due to device imperfections. Here we propose a hybrid measurement attack, with only linear optics, homodyne detection, and single photon detection, to the widely used vacuum + weak decoy state QKD system when the phase of source is partially randomized. Our analysis shows that, in some parameter regimes, the proposed attack would result in an entanglement breaking channel but still be able to trick the legitimate users to believe they have transmitted secure keys. That is, the eavesdropper is able to steal all the key information without discovered by the users. Thus, our proposal reveals that partial phase randomization is not sufficient to guarantee the security of phase-encoding QKD systems with weak coherent states.

  17. Can we determine what controls the spatio-temporal distribution of d-excess and 17O-excess in precipitation using the LMDZ general circulation model?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Risi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Combined measurements of the H218O and HDO isotopic ratios in precipitation, leading to second-order parameter D-excess, have provided additional constraints on past climates compared to the H218O isotopic ratio alone. More recently, measurements of H217O have led to another second-order parameter: 17O-excess. Recent studies suggest that 17O-excess in polar ice may provide information on evaporative conditions at the moisture source. However, the processes controlling the spatio-temporal distribution of 17O-excess are still far from being fully understood. We use the isotopic general circulation model (GCM LMDZ to better understand what controls d-excess and 17O-excess in precipitation at present-day (PD and during the last glacial maximum (LGM. The simulation of D-excess and 17O-excess is evaluated against measurements in meteoric water, water vapor and polar ice cores. A set of sensitivity tests and diagnostics are used to quantify the relative effects of evaporative conditions (sea surface temperature and relative humidity, Rayleigh distillation, mixing between vapors from different origins, precipitation re-evaporation and supersaturation during condensation at low temperature. In LMDZ, simulations suggest that in the tropics convective processes and rain re-evaporation are important controls on precipitation D-excess and 17O-excess. In higher latitudes, the effect of distillation, mixing between vapors from different origins and supersaturation are the most important controls. For example, the lower d-excess and 17O-excess at LGM simulated at LGM are mainly due to the supersaturation effect. The effect of supersaturation is however very sensitive to a parameter whose tuning would require more measurements and laboratory experiments. Evaporative conditions had previously been suggested to be key controlling factors of d-excess and 17O-excess, but LMDZ underestimates their role. More generally, some shortcomings in the simulation of 17O

  18. Simulation of the pressure field near a jet by randomly distributed vortex rings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fung, Y. T.; Liu, C. H.; Gunzburger, M. D.

    1979-01-01

    Fluctuations of the pressure field in the vicinity of a jet are simulated numerically by a flow model consisting of axially symmetric vortex rings with viscous cores submerged in a uniform stream. The time interval between the shedding of successive vortices is taken to be a random variable with a probability distribution chosen to match that from experiments. It is found that up to 5 diameters downstream of the jet exit, statistics of the computed pressure field are in good agreement with experimental results. Statistical comparisons are provided for the overall sound pressure level, the peak amplitude, and the Strouhal number based on the peak frequency of the pressure signals.

  19. Electromagnetic wave propagation in a random distribution of C{sub 60} molecules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moradi, Afshin, E-mail: a.moradi@kut.ac.ir [Department of Engineering Physics, Kermanshah University of Technology, Kermanshah, Iran and Department of Nano Sciences, Institute for Studies in Theoretical Physics and Mathematics (IPM), Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    Propagation of electromagnetic waves in a random distribution of C{sub 60} molecules are investigated, within the framework of the classical electrodynamics. Electronic excitations over the each C{sub 60} molecule surface are modeled by a spherical layer of electron gas represented by two interacting fluids, which takes into account the different nature of the π and σ electrons. It is found that the present medium supports four modes of electromagnetic waves, where they can be divided into two groups: one group with shorter wavelength than the light waves of the same frequency and the other with longer wavelength than the free-space radiation.

  20. Distribution of the phenotypic effects of random homologous recombination between two virus species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florence Vuillaume

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Recombination has an evident impact on virus evolution and emergence of new pathotypes, and has generated an immense literature. However, the distribution of phenotypic effects caused by genome-wide random homologous recombination has never been formally investigated. Previous data on the subject have promoted the implicit view that most viral recombinant genomes are likely to be deleterious or lethal if the nucleotide identity of parental sequences is below 90%. We decided to challenge this view by creating a bank of near-random recombinants between two viral species of the genus Begomovirus (Family Geminiviridae exhibiting 82% nucleotide identity, and by testing infectivity and in planta accumulation of recombinant clones randomly extracted from this bank. The bank was created by DNA-shuffling-a technology initially applied to the random shuffling of individual genes, and here implemented for the first time to shuffle full-length viral genomes. Together with our previously described system allowing the direct cloning of full-length infectious geminivirus genomes, it provided a unique opportunity to generate hundreds of "mosaic" virus genomes, directly testable for infectivity. A subset of 47 randomly chosen recombinants was sequenced, individually inoculated into tomato plants, and compared with the parental viruses. Surprisingly, our results showed that all recombinants were infectious and accumulated at levels comparable or intermediate to that of the parental clones. This indicates that, in our experimental system, despite the fact that the parental genomes differ by nearly 20%, lethal and/or large deleterious effects of recombination are very rare, in striking contrast to the common view that has emerged from previous studies published on other viruses.

  1. Distributed Constrained Stochastic Subgradient Algorithms Based on Random Projection and Asynchronous Broadcast over Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junlong Zhu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a distributed constrained optimization problem over a time-varying network, where each agent only knows its own cost functions and its constraint set. However, the local constraint set may not be known in advance or consists of huge number of components in some applications. To deal with such cases, we propose a distributed stochastic subgradient algorithm over time-varying networks, where the estimate of each agent projects onto its constraint set by using random projection technique and the implement of information exchange between agents by employing asynchronous broadcast communication protocol. We show that our proposed algorithm is convergent with probability 1 by choosing suitable learning rate. For constant learning rate, we obtain an error bound, which is defined as the expected distance between the estimates of agent and the optimal solution. We also establish an asymptotic upper bound between the global objective function value at the average of the estimates and the optimal value.

  2. Sub-daily precipitation disaggregation for a simulation of annual runoff maxima

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sikorska, Anna; Seibert, Jan

    2017-04-01

    Measurement of precipitation has been often restricted to daily totals only. This applies especially to observations from the previous century which constitutes a valuable source of long-term precipitation records needed for statistical analysis such as for annual runoff maxima. In this respect, the knowledge about the exact temporal distribution of these precipitation totals at sub-daily time steps can play an important role on the magnitude of simulated runoff maxima using these data. But it is difficult to estimate the sub-daily temporal distribution of precipitation if it was not measured. Instead, the effect of the precipitation in the form of runoff measured at the catchment outlet, which is usually available at sub-daily time steps for longer periods, provides an alternative to evaluate the potential effect of the need to disaggregate precipitation data. In this study we assess how the choice of the temporal distribution of daily precipitation totals might affect the simulation of the catchment runoff annual maxima when using a hydrological model. To examine this issue, we tested six different settings of precipitation total distribution within the day. These are: 1) uniform distribution (daily totals uniquely divided over 24 hours); all daily totals fall within a respective time window, i.e., 2) one hour, 3) two successive hours, 4) three successive hours, 5) six successive hours, and 6) twelve successive hours, each time randomly selected for each observation day independently. To assess the effect on simulated runoff maxima, such generated hourly precipitation datasets were next used as input into a pre-calibrated HBV model. As a reference, we used model simulations with observed hourly precipitation data. This study was conducted using thirty years of precipitation and runoff observations in three Swiss catchments. Our results showed that the annual maxima were best simulated when distributing daily totals over twelve successive hours randomly selected

  3. Structural characteristics of annual precipitation in Lake Urmia basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaheddoost, Babak; Aksoy, Hafzullah

    2017-05-01

    Precipitation as the main process that brings evaporated water from the oceans to the land's surface is a critical role player in Lake Urmia basin (Iran). As a hyper-saline lake declared as UNESCO's biosphere reserve in Ramsar Convention, it is dealing with gradual atrophy. In this study, characteristics of annual precipitation in the Lake Urmia basin are investigated by means of several statistical measures and tests. Data in 53 meteorological stations widespread across the basin for a period of 31 years from 1981 to 2011 are considered for analysis. Fundamental statistical characteristics of the data like mean, maximum, minimum, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, coefficient of skewness, coefficient of kurtosis, auto-correlation and cross-correlation coefficients of the annual precipitation are calculated. Entropy in each station is also calculated with respect to the long-run mean precipitation of the basin. Results of the analysis are plotted in contour maps. Several tests for consistency, randomness, trend and best-fit probability distribution function are applied to investigate characteristics of the annual precipitation. Heterogeneity and dependence on local conditions are the main results revealed by this study while consistency and dependency of precipitation on North West and West of the basin are considered as the most effective among other regions. Due to the North-South oriented mountains, a relatively sharp decline in the precipitation from West to East can be compared to the gradual decline in precipitation from North to South due to smooth change in the terrain. It is also seen that such characteristics as probability distribution, consistency, randomness, trend, and uncertainty of annual precipitation in the Lake Urmia basin become more complex as crossing from West to East than crossing from North to South on the basin.

  4. Random phenotypic variation of yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) single-gene knockouts fits a double pareto-lognormal distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, John H; Robb, Daniel T; Poe, Amy R

    2012-01-01

    Distributed robustness is thought to influence the buffering of random phenotypic variation through the scale-free topology of gene regulatory, metabolic, and protein-protein interaction networks. If this hypothesis is true, then the phenotypic response to the perturbation of particular nodes in such a network should be proportional to the number of links those nodes make with neighboring nodes. This suggests a probability distribution approximating an inverse power-law of random phenotypic variation. Zero phenotypic variation, however, is impossible, because random molecular and cellular processes are essential to normal development. Consequently, a more realistic distribution should have a y-intercept close to zero in the lower tail, a mode greater than zero, and a long (fat) upper tail. The double Pareto-lognormal (DPLN) distribution is an ideal candidate distribution. It consists of a mixture of a lognormal body and upper and lower power-law tails. If our assumptions are true, the DPLN distribution should provide a better fit to random phenotypic variation in a large series of single-gene knockout lines than other skewed or symmetrical distributions. We fit a large published data set of single-gene knockout lines in Saccharomyces cerevisiae to seven different probability distributions: DPLN, right Pareto-lognormal (RPLN), left Pareto-lognormal (LPLN), normal, lognormal, exponential, and Pareto. The best model was judged by the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Phenotypic variation among gene knockouts in S. cerevisiae fits a double Pareto-lognormal (DPLN) distribution better than any of the alternative distributions, including the right Pareto-lognormal and lognormal distributions. A DPLN distribution is consistent with the hypothesis that developmental stability is mediated, in part, by distributed robustness, the resilience of gene regulatory, metabolic, and protein-protein interaction networks. Alternatively, multiplicative cell growth, and the mixing of

  5. On the Distribution of Indefinite Quadratic Forms in Gaussian Random Variables

    KAUST Repository

    Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.

    2015-10-30

    © 2015 IEEE. In this work, we propose a unified approach to evaluating the CDF and PDF of indefinite quadratic forms in Gaussian random variables. Such a quantity appears in many applications in communications, signal processing, information theory, and adaptive filtering. For example, this quantity appears in the mean-square-error (MSE) analysis of the normalized least-meansquare (NLMS) adaptive algorithm, and SINR associated with each beam in beam forming applications. The trick of the proposed approach is to replace inequalities that appear in the CDF calculation with unit step functions and to use complex integral representation of the the unit step function. Complex integration allows us then to evaluate the CDF in closed form for the zero mean case and as a single dimensional integral for the non-zero mean case. Utilizing the saddle point technique allows us to closely approximate such integrals in non zero mean case. We demonstrate how our approach can be extended to other scenarios such as the joint distribution of quadratic forms and ratios of such forms, and to characterize quadratic forms in isotropic distributed random variables.We also evaluate the outage probability in multiuser beamforming using our approach to provide an application of indefinite forms in communications.

  6. Deviations from the Gutenberg–Richter law on account of a random distribution of block sizes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sibiryakov, B. P., E-mail: sibiryakovbp@ipgg.sbras.ru [Trofimuk Institute of Oil and Gas Geology and Geophysics SB RAS, Novosibirsk, 630090 (Russian Federation); Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, 630090 (Russian Federation)

    2015-10-27

    This paper studies properties of a continuum with structure. The characteristic size of the structure governs the fact that difference relations are nonautomatically transformed into differential ones. It is impossible to consider an infinitesimal volume of a body, to which the major conservation laws could be applied, because the minimum representative volume of the body must contain at least a few elementary microstructures. The corresponding equations of motion are equations of infinite order, solutions of which include, along with usual sound waves, unusual waves with abnormally low velocities without a lower limit. It is shown that in such media weak perturbations can increase or decrease outside the limits. The number of complex roots of the corresponding dispersion equation, which can be interpreted as the number of unstable solutions, depends on the specific surface of cracks and is an almost linear dependence on a logarithmic scale, as in the seismological Gutenberg–Richter law. If the distance between one pore (crack) to another one is a random value with some distribution, we must write another dispersion equation and examine different scenarios depending on the statistical characteristics of the random distribution. In this case, there are sufficient deviations from the Gutenberg–Richter law and this theoretical result corresponds to some field and laboratory observations.

  7. Distribution of the Height of Local Maxima of Gaussian Random Fields*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Dan; Schwartzman, Armin

    2015-01-01

    Let {f(t) : t ∈ T} be a smooth Gaussian random field over a parameter space T, where T may be a subset of Euclidean space or, more generally, a Riemannian manifold. We provide a general formula for the distribution of the height of a local maximum P{f(t0)>u∣t0 is a local maximum of f(t)} when f is non-stationary. Moreover, we establish asymptotic approximations for the overshoot distribution of a local maximum P{f(t0)>u+v∣t0 is a local maximum of f(t) and f(t0) > v} as v → ∞. Assuming further that f is isotropic, we apply techniques from random matrix theory related to the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble to compute such conditional probabilities explicitly when T is Euclidean or a sphere of arbitrary dimension. Such calculations are motivated by the statistical problem of detecting peaks in the presence of smooth Gaussian noise. PMID:26478714

  8. Precipitous Birth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Yee

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Audience: This scenario was developed to educate emergency medicine residents on the management of a precipitous birth in the emergency department (ED. The case is also appropriate for teaching of medical students and advanced practice providers, as well as reviewing the principles of crisis resource management, teamwork, and communication. Introduction: Patients with precipitous birth require providers to manage two patients simultaneously with limited time and resources. Crisis resource management skills will be tested once baby is delivered, and the neonate will require assessment for potential neonatal resuscitation. Objectives: At the conclusion of the simulation session, learners will be able to manage women who have precipitous deliveries, as well as perform neonatal assessment and management. Method: This session was conducted using high-fidelity simulation, followed by a debriefing session and lecture on precipitous birth management and neonatal evaluation.

  9. Accuration of Time Series and Spatial Interpolation Method for Prediction of Precipitation Distribution on the Geographical Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasetyo, S. Y. J.; Hartomo, K. D.

    2018-01-01

    The Spatial Plan of the Province of Central Java 2009-2029 identifies that most regencies or cities in Central Java Province are very vulnerable to landslide disaster. The data are also supported by other data from Indonesian Disaster Risk Index (In Indonesia called Indeks Risiko Bencana Indonesia) 2013 that suggest that some areas in Central Java Province exhibit a high risk of natural disasters. This research aims to develop an application architecture and analysis methodology in GIS to predict and to map rainfall distribution. We propose our GIS architectural application of “Multiplatform Architectural Spatiotemporal” and data analysis methods of “Triple Exponential Smoothing” and “Spatial Interpolation” as our significant scientific contribution. This research consists of 2 (two) parts, namely attribute data prediction using TES method and spatial data prediction using Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) method. We conduct our research in 19 subdistricts in the Boyolali Regency, Central Java Province, Indonesia. Our main research data is the biweekly rainfall data in 2000-2016 Climatology, Meteorology, and Geophysics Agency (In Indonesia called Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika) of Central Java Province and Laboratory of Plant Disease Observations Region V Surakarta, Central Java. The application architecture and analytical methodology of “Multiplatform Architectural Spatiotemporal” and spatial data analysis methodology of “Triple Exponential Smoothing” and “Spatial Interpolation” can be developed as a GIS application framework of rainfall distribution for various applied fields. The comparison between the TES and IDW methods show that relative to time series prediction, spatial interpolation exhibit values that are approaching actual. Spatial interpolation is closer to actual data because computed values are the rainfall data of the nearest location or the neighbour of sample values. However, the IDW’s main weakness is that some

  10. TCA precipitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koontz, Laura

    2014-01-01

    Trichloroacetic acid (TCA) precipitation of proteins is commonly used to concentrate protein samples or remove contaminants, including salts and detergents, prior to downstream applications such as SDS-PAGE or 2D-gels. TCA precipitation denatures the protein, so it should not be used if the protein must remain in its folded state (e.g., if you want to measure a biochemical activity of the protein). © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. STRONTIUM PRECIPITATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenzie, T.R.

    1960-09-13

    A process is given for improving the precipitation of strontium from an aqueous phosphoric-acid-containing solution with nickel or cobalt ferrocyanide by simultaneously precipitating strontium or calcium phosphate. This is accomplished by adding to the ferrocyanide-containing solution calcium or strontium nitrate in a quantity to yield a concentration of from 0.004 to 0.03 and adjusting the pH of the solution to a value of above 8.

  12. Dissolution and precipitation dynamics during dedolomitization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edery, Yaniv; Scher, Harvey; Berkowitz, Brian

    2011-08-01

    We simulate the processes of dedolomitization and calcium carbonate precipitation using particle tracking. The study is stimulated by the results of a laboratory experiment that examined reactive transport of injected CaCl2/HCl, into a column of sucrosic dolomite particles, with a constant flow field. The injected fluid supplies Ca2+ and H+. Dedolomitization is a protonation reaction yielding carbonic acid; a subsequent deprotonation reaction yields ?, and reaction with the abundant Ca2+ forms the precipitate CaCO3. The dedolomitization and precipitation processes involve multistep, multispecies chemical reactions, with both irreversible and reversible stages. The particle tracking is governed by spatial and temporal distributions within a continuous time random walk framework. This accounts for the effects of disorder of heterogeneous media (leading to non-Fickian transport) and includes the option of treating purely advective-dispersive (Fickian) transport. The dynamics of dedolomitization are examined for different flow conditions and reaction rates. The fluctuations in the local velocity distributions, due to porosity changes, create conditions for positive feedbacks leading to development of preferential pathways, large-scale nonlinearity, and precipitation banding. These features have been observed in the laboratory experiments and are now accounted for by the simulation results at similar time frames, velocities, and pH levels.

  13. Catalyzed precipitation in aluminum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitlin, David

    '. In the quaternary alloy, Si-Ge particles quickly nucleate and grow during elevated temperature aging (they are detected after as little as 30 min. at 190°C). The Si-Ge particles then act as nucleation sites for theta' precipitates, resulting in a peak aged microstructure consisting of a dense distribution of theta' attached to Si-Ge.

  14. Nonparametric estimation of the distribution of the autoregressive coefficient from panel random-coefficient AR(1) data

    OpenAIRE

    Leipus, Remigijus; Philippe, Anne; Pilipauskaitė, Vytautė; Surgailis, Donatas

    2015-01-01

    We discuss nonparametric estimation of the distribution function $G(x)$ of the autoregressive coefficient $a \\in (-1,1)$ from a panel of $N$ random-coefficient AR(1) data, each of length $n$, by the empirical distribution function of lag 1 sample autocorrelations of individual AR(1) processes. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the empirical distribution function and a class of kernel density estimators is established under some regularity conditions on $G(x)$ as $N$ and $n$ increase to ...

  15. Simple physical-empirical model of the precipitation distribution based on a tropical sea surface temperature threshold and the effects of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jauregui, Yakelyn R.; Takahashi, Ken

    2017-06-01

    The observed nonlinear relationship between tropical sea surface temperature (T_s ) and precipitation (P) on climate timescales, by which a threshold (T_c ) must be exceeded by T_s in order for deep convection to occur, is the basis of a physical-empirical model (PEM) that we fitted to observational data and CMIP5 climate model output and used to show that, with essentially only two constant parameters (T_c and the sensitivity a_1 of P to T_s>T_c ), it provides a useful first-order description of the climatological and interannual variability of the large-scale distribution of tropical P given T_s , as well as of the biases of the Global Climate Models (GCMs). A substantial limitation is its underestimation of the peak P in the convergence zones, as the necessary processes associated with the atmospheric circulation are not considered. The pattern of the intermodel correlation between the mean T_s-T_c for each GCM and the average P distribution is in agreement with the double ITCZ bias, featuring roughly zonally-symmetric off-equatorial maxima, rather than being regionally or hemispherically restricted. The inter-comparison of GCMs indicates a relationship between T_c with the near-equatorial low-level (850 hPa) tropospheric temperature, consistent with the interpretation that it is a measure of the convective inhibition (CIN). The underestimation of T_c is linked to the cold free tropospheric bias in the GCMs. However, the discrepancy among the observational datasets is a limitation for assessing the GCM biases from the PEM framework quantitatively. Under the RCP4.5 climate change scenario, T_c increases slightly more than the mean tropical T_s , implying a stabilizing trend consistent with the amplified free tropospheric warming relative to the surface. However, since a_1 increases by 10-50%/° C with the surface warming, its effect dominates and results in generally positive precipitation change (Δ P ) in the equatorial regions. In the equatorial eastern

  16. A Chemical Reaction Network to Generate Random, Power-Law-Distributed Time Intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krauss, Patrick; Schulze, Holger; Metzner, Claus

    2017-10-06

    In Lévy walks (LWs), particles move with a fixed speed along straight line segments and turn in new directions after random time intervals that are distributed according to a power law. Such LWs are thought to be an advantageous foraging and search strategy for organisms. While complex nervous systems are certainly capable of producing such behavior, it is not clear at present how single-cell organisms can generate the long-term correlated control signals required for a LW. Here, we construct a biochemical reaction system that generates long-time correlated concentration fluctuations of a signaling substance, with a tunable fractional exponent of the autocorrelation function. The network is based on well-known modules, and its basic function is highly robust with respect to the parameter settings.

  17. Discovery of Non-random Spatial Distribution of Impacts in the Stardust Cometary Collector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Westphal, A J; Bastien, R K; Borg, J; Bridges, J; Brownlee, D E; Burchell, M J; Cheng, A F; Clark, B C; Djouadi, Z; Floss, C; Franchi, I; Gainsforth, Z; Graham, G; Green, S F; Heck, P R; Horanyi, M; Hoppe, P; Horz, F P; Huth, J; Kearsley, A; Leroux, H; Marhas, K; Nakamura-Messenger, K; Sandford, S A; See, T H; Stadermann, F J; Teslich, N E; Tsitrin, S; Warren, J L; Wozniakiewicz, P J; Zolensky, M E

    2007-04-06

    We report the discovery that impacts in the Stardust cometary collector are not distributed randomly in the collecting media, but appear to be clustered on scales smaller than {approx} 10 cm. We also report the discovery of at least two populations of oblique tracks. We evaluated several hypotheses that could explain the observations. No hypothesis was consistent with all the observations, but the preponderance of evidence points toward at least one impact on the central Whipple shield of the spacecraft as the origin of both clustering and low-angle oblique tracks. High-angle oblique tracks unambiguously originate from a non-cometary impact on the spacecraft bus just forward of the collector.

  18. The compaction of a random distribution of metal cylinders by the discrete element method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Redanz, Pia; Fleck, N. A.

    2001-01-01

    The cold compaction of a 2D random distribution of metal circular cylinders has been investigated numerically by the discrete element method. Each cylindrical particle is located by a node at its centre and the plastic indentation of the contacts between neighbouring particles is represented by non...... takes place. leading to yield surfaces of similar shape but about half the size of that found for affine motion, as reported in [J. Mech. Phys. Solids 40 (1992) 1139 43 (1995) 1409; 47 (1999) 785]. An increase in the level of inter-particle friction leads to a reduction in the degree of local particle...... rearrangement: the relative displacement of particle centres in the network is more closely represented by affine motion for the case of sticking contacts than frictionless contacts. The discrete element calculations suggest that the yield surfaces for sticking contacts are similar in shape to those...

  19. A Random Forest approach to predict the spatial distribution of sediment pollution in an estuarine system.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric S Walsh

    Full Text Available Modeling the magnitude and distribution of sediment-bound pollutants in estuaries is often limited by incomplete knowledge of the site and inadequate sample density. To address these modeling limitations, a decision-support tool framework was conceived that predicts sediment contamination from the sub-estuary to broader estuary extent. For this study, a Random Forest (RF model was implemented to predict the distribution of a model contaminant, triclosan (5-chloro-2-(2,4-dichlorophenoxyphenol (TCS, in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA. TCS is an unregulated contaminant used in many personal care products. The RF explanatory variables were associated with TCS transport and fate (proxies and direct and indirect environmental entry. The continuous RF TCS concentration predictions were discretized into three levels of contamination (low, medium, and high for three different quantile thresholds. The RF model explained 63% of the variance with a minimum number of variables. Total organic carbon (TOC (transport and fate proxy was a strong predictor of TCS contamination causing a mean squared error increase of 59% when compared to permutations of randomized values of TOC. Additionally, combined sewer overflow discharge (environmental entry and sand (transport and fate proxy were strong predictors. The discretization models identified a TCS area of greatest concern in the northern reach of Narragansett Bay (Providence River sub-estuary, which was validated with independent test samples. This decision-support tool performed well at the sub-estuary extent and provided the means to identify areas of concern and prioritize bay-wide sampling.

  20. Observations and Parameterizations of Particle Size Distributions in Deep Tropical Cirrus and Stratiform Precipitation Clouds: Results from In-Situ Observations in TRMM Field Campaigns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heymsfield, Andrew J.; Bansemer, Aaron; Field, Paul R.; Durden, Stephen L.; Stith, Jeffrey L.; Dye, James E.; Hall, William; Grainger, Cedric A.

    2002-01-01

    In this study, we report on the evolution of particle size distributions (PSDs) and habits as measured during slow, Lagrangian-type spiral descents through deep subtropical and tropical cloud layers in Florida, Brazil, and Kwajalein, Marshall Islands, most of which were precipitating. The objective of the flight patterns was to learn more about how the PSDs evolved in the vertical and to obtain information of the vertical structure of microphysical properties. New instrumentation yielding better information on the concentrations of particles in the size (D) range between 0.2 and 2 cm, as well as improved particle imagery, produced more comprehensive observations for tropical stratiform precipitation regions and anvils than have been available previously. Collocated radar observations provided additional information on the vertical structure of the cloud layers sampled. Most of the spirals began at cloud top, with temperatures (T) as low as -50 C, and ended at cloud base or below the melting layer (ML). The PSDs broadened from cloud top towards cloud base, with the largest particles increasing in size from several millimeters at cloud top to one centimeter or larger towards cloud base. Some continued growth was noted in the upper part of the ML. Concentrations of particles less than 1 mm in size decreased with decreasing height. The result was a consistent change in the PSDs in the vertical. Similarly, systematic changes in the size dependence of the particle cross-sectional area was noted with decreasing height. Aggregation-as ascertained from both the changes in the PSDs and evolution of particle habits as observed in high detail with the cloud particle imager (CPI) probe-was responsible for these trends. The PSDs were generally well-represented by gamma distributions of the form N = N0 gamma D microns e- lambda gamma D that were fitted to the PSDs over 1-km horizontal intervals throughout the spirals. The intercept (N0 gamma), slope (lambda gamma), and dispersion

  1. Diffusion of dilute gas in arrays of randomly distributed, vertically aligned, high-aspect-ratio cylinders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szmyt, Wojciech; Guerra, Carlos; Utke, Ivo

    2017-01-01

    In this work we modelled the diffusive transport of a dilute gas along arrays of randomly distributed, vertically aligned nanocylinders (nanotubes or nanowires) as opposed to gas diffusion in long pores, which is described by the well-known Knudsen theory. Analytical expressions for (i) the gas diffusion coefficient inside such arrays, (ii) the time between collisions of molecules with the nanocylinder walls (mean time of flight), (iii) the surface impingement rate, and (iv) the Knudsen number of such a system were rigidly derived based on a random-walk model of a molecule that undergoes memoryless, diffusive reflections from nanocylinder walls assuming the molecular regime of gas transport. It can be specifically shown that the gas diffusion coefficient inside such arrays is inversely proportional to the areal density of cylinders and their mean diameter. An example calculation of a diffusion coefficient is delivered for a system of titanium isopropoxide molecules diffusing between vertically aligned carbon nanotubes. Our findings are important for the correct modelling and optimisation of gas-based deposition techniques, such as atomic layer deposition or chemical vapour deposition, frequently used for surface functionalisation of high-aspect-ratio nanocylinder arrays in solar cells and energy storage applications. Furthermore, gas sensing devices with high-aspect-ratio nanocylinder arrays and the growth of vertically aligned carbon nanotubes need the fundamental understanding and precise modelling of gas transport to optimise such processes.

  2. Unexpected Effects of a System-Distributed Mobile Application in Maternity Care: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ledford, Christy J W; Womack, Jasmyne J; Rider, Heather A; Seehusen, Angela B; Conner, Stephen J; Lauters, Rebecca A; Hodge, Joshua A

    2017-09-01

    As pregnant mothers increasingly engage in shared decision making regarding prenatal decisions, such as induction of labor, the patient's level of activation may influence pregnancy outcomes. One potential tool to increase patient activation in the clinical setting is mobile applications. However, research is limited in comparing mobile apps with other modalities of patient education and engagement tools. This study was designed to test the effectiveness of a mobile app as a replacement for a spiral notebook guide as a patient education and engagement tool in the prenatal clinical setting. This randomized controlled trial was conducted in the Women's Health Clinic and Family Health Clinic of three hospitals. Repeated-measures analysis of covariance was used to test intervention effects in the study sample of 205 patients. Mothers used a mobile app interface to more frequently record information about their pregnancy; however, across time, mothers using a mobile app reported a significant decrease in patient activation. The unexpected negative effects in the group of patients randomized to the mobile app prompt these authors to recommend that health systems pause before distributing their own version of mobile apps that may decrease patient activation. Mobile apps can be inherently empowering and engaging, but how a system encourages their use may ultimately determine their adoption and success.

  3. Internal wave generation by tidal flow over periodically and randomly distributed seamounts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Likun; Buijsman, Maarten C.; Comino, Eva; Swinney, Harry L.

    2017-06-01

    We examine numerically the conversion of barotropic tidal energy into internal waves by flow over an isolated seamount and over systems of periodically and randomly distributed 1100 m tall seamounts with Gaussian profiles. The simulations use the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to calculate for an infinitely deep ocean the dependence of the energy conversion on seamount slope, seamount separation, tidal direction, and the size and aspect ratio of the simulation domain. For neighboring seamounts with a slope greater than the internal wave beam slope, wave interference reduces the conversion relative to that calculated for an isolated seamount, and relative to that predicted by linear theory for a seamount of slope less than the beam slope. The conversion by an individual seamount in a system of random seamounts separated by an average distance of 18 km is found to be suppressed by 16% relative to the conversion by an isolated seamount. This study provides insight into tidal conversion by ocean seamounts modeled as Gaussian mountains with slopes both smaller and larger than the beam slope. We conclude that the total energy conversion by all seamounts (peak height ≥1000 m) and knolls (peak height 500-1000 m), taking into account interference affects, is of the order of 1% of the total barotropic to baroclinic energy conversion in the oceans, which is about twice as large as previous estimates.

  4. Diffusion of dilute gas in arrays of randomly distributed, vertically aligned, high-aspect-ratio cylinders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wojciech Szmyt

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work we modelled the diffusive transport of a dilute gas along arrays of randomly distributed, vertically aligned nanocylinders (nanotubes or nanowires as opposed to gas diffusion in long pores, which is described by the well-known Knudsen theory. Analytical expressions for (i the gas diffusion coefficient inside such arrays, (ii the time between collisions of molecules with the nanocylinder walls (mean time of flight, (iii the surface impingement rate, and (iv the Knudsen number of such a system were rigidly derived based on a random-walk model of a molecule that undergoes memoryless, diffusive reflections from nanocylinder walls assuming the molecular regime of gas transport. It can be specifically shown that the gas diffusion coefficient inside such arrays is inversely proportional to the areal density of cylinders and their mean diameter. An example calculation of a diffusion coefficient is delivered for a system of titanium isopropoxide molecules diffusing between vertically aligned carbon nanotubes. Our findings are important for the correct modelling and optimisation of gas-based deposition techniques, such as atomic layer deposition or chemical vapour deposition, frequently used for surface functionalisation of high-aspect-ratio nanocylinder arrays in solar cells and energy storage applications. Furthermore, gas sensing devices with high-aspect-ratio nanocylinder arrays and the growth of vertically aligned carbon nanotubes need the fundamental understanding and precise modelling of gas transport to optimise such processes.

  5. Numerical simulation of fibrous biomaterials with randomly distributed fiber network structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Tao; Stanciulescu, Ilinca

    2016-08-01

    This paper presents a computational framework to simulate the mechanical behavior of fibrous biomaterials with randomly distributed fiber networks. A random walk algorithm is implemented to generate the synthetic fiber network in 2D used in simulations. The embedded fiber approach is then adopted to model the fibers as embedded truss elements in the ground matrix, which is essentially equivalent to the affine fiber kinematics. The fiber-matrix interaction is partially considered in the sense that the two material components deform together, but no relative movement is considered. A variational approach is carried out to derive the element residual and stiffness matrices for finite element method (FEM), in which material and geometric nonlinearities are both included. Using a data structure proposed to record the network geometric information, the fiber network is directly incorporated into the FEM simulation without significantly increasing the computational cost. A mesh sensitivity analysis is conducted to show the influence of mesh size on various simulation results. The proposed method can be easily combined with Monte Carlo (MC) simulations to include the influence of the stochastic nature of the network and capture the material behavior in an average sense. The computational framework proposed in this work goes midway between homogenizing the fiber network into the surrounding matrix and accounting for the fully coupled fiber-matrix interaction at the segment length scale, and can be used to study the connection between the microscopic structure and the macro-mechanical behavior of fibrous biomaterials with a reasonable computational cost.

  6. Strong Scalability Study of Distributed Memory Parallel Markov Random Fields Using Graph Partitioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinemann, Colleen

    Research in material science is increasingly reliant on image-based data from experiments, demanding construction of new analysis tools that help scientists discover information from digital images. Because there is such a wide variety of materials and image modalities, detecting different compounds from imaged materials continues to be a challenging task. A vast collection of algorithms for filtering, image segmentation, and texture description have facilitated and improved accuracy for sample measurements (see Chapter 1 Introduction and Literature Review). Despite this, the community still lacks scalable, general purpose, easily configurable image analysis frameworks that allow pattern detection on different imaging modalities across multiple scales. The need for such a framework was the motivation behind the development of a distributed-memory parallel Markov Random Field based framework. Markov Random Field (MRF) algorithms provide the ability to explore contextual information about a given dataset. Given the complexity of such algorithms, however, they are limited by performance when running serial. Thus, running in some sort of parallel fashion is necessary. The effects are twofold. Not only does running the MRF algorithm in parallel provide the ability to run current datasets faster and more efficiently, it also provides the ability for datasets to continue to grow in size and still be able to be run with such frameworks. The variation of the Markov Random Field algorithm utilized in this study first oversegments the given input image and constructs a graph model based on photometric and geometric distances. Next, the resulting graph model is refactored specifically into the MRF model to target image segmentation. Finally, a distributed approach is used for the optimization process to obtain the best labeling for the graph, which is essentially the goal of using a MRF algorithm. Given the concept of using a distributed memory parallel framework, specifically

  7. GPM GROUND VALIDATION PRECIPITATION VIDEO IMAGER (PVI) GCPEX V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The GPM Ground Validation Precipitation Video Imager (PVI) GCPEx dataset collected precipitation particle images and drop size distribution data from November 2011...

  8. Properties of thermoluminescence glow curves from tunneling recombination processes in random distributions of defects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kitis, George [Nuclear Physics Laboratory, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki (Greece); Pagonis, Vasilis, E-mail: vpagonis@mcdaniel.edu [Physics Department, McDaniel College, Westminster, MD 21157 (United States)

    2014-09-15

    Localized electronic recombination processes in donor–acceptor pairs of luminescent materials have been recently modeled using a new kinetic model based on tunneling. Within this model, recombination is assumed to take place via the excited state of the donor, and nearest-neighbor recombinations take place within a random distribution of centers. An approximate semi-analytical version of the model has been shown to simulate successfully thermally and optically stimulated luminescence (TL and OSL), linearly modulated OSL (LM-OSL) and isothermal TL processes. This paper presents a detailed analysis of the geometrical properties of the TL glow curves obtained within three different published versions of the model. The dependence of the shape of the TL glow curves on the kinetic parameters of the model is examined by allowing simultaneous random variations of the parameters, within wide ranges of physically reasonable values covering several orders of magnitude. It is found that the TL glow curves can be characterized according to their shape factors μ{sub g}, as commonly done in TL theory of delocalized transitions. The values of the shape factor are found to depend rather weakly on the activation energy E and the frequency factor s, but they have a strong dependence on the parameter ρ′ which characterizes the concentration of acceptors in the model. It is also shown by simulation that both the variable heating rate and initial rise methods are applicable in this type of model and can yield the correct value of the activation energy E. However, the initial rise method of analysis for the semianalytical version of the model fails to yield the correct E value, since it underestimates the low temperature part of the TL glow curves. Two analytical expressions are given for the TL intensity, which can be used on an empirical basis for computerized glow curve deconvolution analysis (CGCD). - Highlights: • Detailed study of TL glow curves in a tunneling model for

  9. Digital simulation of two-dimensional random fields with arbitrary power spectra and non-Gaussian probability distribution functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yura, Harold; Hanson, Steen Grüner

    2012-01-01

    Methods for simulation of two-dimensional signals with arbitrary power spectral densities and signal amplitude probability density functions are disclosed. The method relies on initially transforming a white noise sample set of random Gaussian distributed numbers into a corresponding set with the......Methods for simulation of two-dimensional signals with arbitrary power spectral densities and signal amplitude probability density functions are disclosed. The method relies on initially transforming a white noise sample set of random Gaussian distributed numbers into a corresponding set...... with the desired spectral distribution, after which this colored Gaussian probability distribution is transformed via an inverse transform into the desired probability distribution. In most cases the method provides satisfactory results and can thus be considered an engineering approach. Several illustrative...

  10. Broadband diffuse terahertz wave scattering by flexible metasurface with randomized phase distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yin; Liang, Lanju; Yang, Jing; Feng, Yijun; Zhu, Bo; Zhao, Junming; Jiang, Tian; Jin, Biaobing; Liu, Weiwei

    2016-05-26

    Suppressing specular electromagnetic wave reflection or backward radar cross section is important and of broad interests in practical electromagnetic engineering. Here, we present a scheme to achieve broadband backward scattering reduction through diffuse terahertz wave reflection by a flexible metasurface. The diffuse scattering of terahertz wave is caused by the randomized reflection phase distribution on the metasurface, which consists of meta-particles of differently sized metallic patches arranged on top of a grounded polyimide substrate simply through a certain computer generated pseudorandom sequence. Both numerical simulations and experimental results demonstrate the ultralow specular reflection over a broad frequency band and wide angle of incidence due to the re-distribution of the incident energy into various directions. The diffuse scattering property is also polarization insensitive and can be well preserved when the flexible metasurface is conformably wrapped on a curved reflective object. The proposed design opens up a new route for specular reflection suppression, and may be applicable in stealth and other technology in the terahertz spectrum.

  11. Trophallaxis-inspired model for distributed transport between randomly interacting agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gräwer, Johannes; Ronellenfitsch, Henrik; Mazza, Marco G.; Katifori, Eleni

    2017-08-01

    Trophallaxis, the regurgitation and mouth to mouth transfer of liquid food between members of eusocial insect societies, is an important process that allows the fast and efficient dissemination of food in the colony. Trophallactic systems are typically treated as a network of agent interactions. This approach, though valuable, does not easily lend itself to analytic predictions. In this work we consider a simple trophallactic system of randomly interacting agents with finite carrying capacity, and calculate analytically and via a series of simulations the global food intake rate for the whole colony as well as observables describing how uniformly the food is distributed within the nest. Our model and predictions provide a useful benchmark to assess to what level the observed food uptake rates and efficiency in food distribution is due to stochastic effects or specific trophallactic strategies by the ant colony. Our work also serves as a stepping stone to describing the collective properties of more complex trophallactic systems, such as those including division of labor between foragers and workers.

  12. No evidence that mRNAs have lower folding free energies than random sequences with the same dinucleotide distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Workman, Christopher; Krogh, Anders Stærmose

    1999-01-01

    This work investigates whether mRNA has a lower estimated folding free energy than random sequences. The free energy estimates are calculated by the mfold program for prediction of RNA secondary structures. For a set of 46 mRNAs it is shown that the predicted free energy is not significantly...... different from random sequences with the same dinucleotide distribution. For random sequences with the same mononucleotide distribution it has previously been shown that the native mRNA sequences have a lower predicted free energy, which indicates a more stable structure than random sequences. However......, dinucleotide content is important when assessing the significance of predicted free energy as the physical stability of RNA secondary structure is known to depend on dinucleotide base stacking energies. Even known RNA secondary structures, like tRNAs, can be shown to have predicted free energies...

  13. The Relationships Between the Trends of Mean and Extreme Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yaping; Lau, William K.-M.

    2017-01-01

    This study provides a better understanding of the relationships between the trends of mean and extreme precipitation in two observed precipitation data sets: the Climate Prediction Center Unified daily precipitation data set and the Global Precipitation Climatology Program (GPCP) pentad data set. The study employs three kinds of definitions of extreme precipitation: (1) percentile, (2) standard deviation and (3) generalize extreme value (GEV) distribution analysis for extreme events based on local statistics. Relationship between trends in the mean and extreme precipitation is identified with a novel metric, i.e. area aggregated matching ratio (AAMR) computed on regional and global scales. Generally, more (less) extreme events are likely to occur in regions with a positive (negative) mean trend. The match between the mean and extreme trends deteriorates for increasingly heavy precipitation events. The AAMR is higher in regions with negative mean trends than in regions with positive mean trends, suggesting a higher likelihood of severe dry events, compared with heavy rain events in a warming climate. AAMR is found to be higher in tropics and oceans than in the extratropics and land regions, reflecting a higher degree of randomness and more important dynamical rather than thermodynamical contributions of extreme events in the latter regions.

  14. Optical key distribution system using atmospheric turbulence as the randomness generating function: classical optical protocol for information assurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drake, Marvin D.; Bas, Christophe F.; Gervais, David; Renda, Priscilla F.; Townsend, Daniel; Rushanan, Joseph J.; Francoeur, Joe; Donnangelo, Nick; Stenner, Michael D.

    2013-05-01

    We describe an experimental laboratory system that generates and distributes random binary sequence bit streams between two optical terminals (labeled Alice and Bob). The random binary sequence is generated through probing the optical channel of a turbulent atmosphere between the two terminals with coincident laser beams. The two laser beams experience differential phase delays while propagating through the atmospheric optical channel. The differential phase delays are detected and sampled at each terminal to yield raw random bit streams. The random bit streams are processed to remove bit errors and, through privacy amplification, to yield a bit stream known only to Alice and Bob. The same chaotic physical mechanism that provides randomness also provides confidentiality. The laboratory system yielded secret key bit rates of a few bits/second. For external optical channels over longer channel lengths with atmospheric turbulence levels, secret bit rates of 10 s of bits/second are predicted.

  15. The distribution of first hitting times of non-backtracking random walks on Erdős-Rényi networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tishby, Ido; Biham, Ofer; Katzav, Eytan

    2017-05-01

    We present analytical results for the distribution of first hitting times of non-backtracking random walks on finite Erdős-Rényi networks of N nodes. The walkers hop randomly between adjacent nodes on the network, without stepping back to the previous node, until they hit a node which they have already visited before or get trapped in a dead-end node. At this point, the path is terminated. The length, d, of the resulting path, is called the first hitting time. Using recursion equations, we obtain analytical results for the tail distribution of first hitting times, P(d > \\ell) , \\ell=0, 1, 2, \\dots , of non-backtracking random walks starting from a random initial node. It turns out that the distribution P(d > \\ell) is given by a product of a discrete Rayleigh distribution and an exponential distribution. We obtain analytical expressions for central measures (mean and median) and a dispersion measure (standard deviation) of this distribution. It is found that the paths of non-backtracking random walks, up to their termination at the first hitting time, are longer, on average, than those of the corresponding simple random walks. However, they are shorter than those of self avoiding walks on the same network, which terminate at the last hitting time. We obtain analytical results for the probabilities, p ret and p trap, that a path will terminate by retracing, namely stepping into an already visited node, or by trapping, namely entering a node of degree k  =  1, which has no exit link, respectively. It is shown that in dilute networks the dominant termination scenario is trapping while in dense networks most paths terminate by retracing. We obtain expressions for the conditional tail distributions of path lengths, P(d> \\ell \\vert ret) and P(d> \\ell \\vert {trap}) , for those paths which terminate by retracing or by trapping, respectively. We also study a class of generalized non-backtracking random walk models which not only avoid the backtracking step

  16. A spatial approach to the modelling and estimation of areal precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skaugen, T

    1996-12-31

    In hydroelectric power technology it is important that the mean precipitation that falls in an area can be calculated. This doctoral thesis studies how the morphology of rainfall, described by the spatial statistical parameters, can be used to improve interpolation and estimation procedures. It attempts to formulate a theory which includes the relations between the size of the catchment and the size of the precipitation events in the modelling of areal precipitation. The problem of estimating and modelling areal precipitation can be formulated as the problem of estimating an inhomogeneously distributed flux of a certain spatial extent being measured at points in a randomly placed domain. The information contained in the different morphology of precipitation types is used to improve estimation procedures of areal precipitation, by interpolation (kriging) or by constructing areal reduction factors. A new approach to precipitation modelling is introduced where the analysis of the spatial coverage of precipitation at different intensities plays a key role in the formulation of a stochastic model for extreme areal precipitation and in deriving the probability density function of areal precipitation. 127 refs., 30 figs., 13 tabs.

  17. Random walk with nonuniform angular distribution biased by an external periodic pulse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharyya, Aranyak

    2016-11-01

    We studied the motion of a random walker in two dimensions with nonuniform angular distribution biased by an external periodic pulse. Here, we analytically calculated the mean square displacement (end-to-end distance of a walk after n time steps), without bias and with bias. We determined the average x-component of the final displacement of the walker. Interestingly, we noted that for a particular periodicity of the bias, this average x-component of the final displacement becomes approximately zero. The average y-component of the final displacement is found to be zero for any perodicity of the bias, and its reason can be attributed to the nature of the probability density function of the angle (subtended by the displacement vector with the x-axis). These analytical results are also supported by computer simulations. The present study may be thought of as a model for arresting the bacterial motion (along a preferred direction) by an external periodic bias. This article will be useful for undergraduate students of physics, statistics and biology as an example of an interdisciplinary approach to understand a way to control bacterial motion.

  18. Using precipitation, vertical root distribution, and satellite-retrieved vegetation information to parameterize water stress in a Penman-Monteith approach to evapotranspiration modeling under Mediterranean climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Yun; Zhang, Jiahua; Zhang, Sha; Koju, Upama Ashish; Yao, Fengmei; Igbawua, Tertsea

    2017-03-01

    Recent studies have shown that global Penman-Monteith equation based (PM-based) models poorly simulate water stress when estimating evapotranspiration (ET) in areas having a Mediterranean climate (AMC). In this study, we propose a novel approach using precipitation, vertical root distribution (VRD), and satellite-retrieved vegetation information to simulate water stress in a PM-based model (RS-WBPM) to address this issue. A multilayer water balance module is employed to simulate the soil water stress factor (SWSF) of multiple soil layers at different depths. The water stress factor (WSF) for surface evapotranspiration is determined by VRD information and SWSF in each layer. Additionally, four older PM-based models (PMOV) are evaluated at 27 flux sites in AMC. Results show that PMOV fails to estimate the magnitude or capture the variation of ET in summer at most sites, whereas RS-WBPM is successful. The daily ET resulting from RS-WBPM incorporating recommended VI (NDVI for shrub and EVI for other biomes) agrees well with observations, with R2=0.60 (RMSE = 18.72 W m-2) for all 27 sites and R2=0.62 (RMSE = 18.21 W m-2) for 25 nonagricultural sites. However, combined results from the optimum older PM-based models at specific sites show R2 values of only 0.50 (RMSE = 20.74 W m-2) for all 27 sites. RS-WBPM is also found to outperform other ET models that also incorporate a soil water balance module. As all inputs of RS-WBPM are globally available, the results from RS-WBPM are encouraging and imply the potential of its implementation on a regional and global scale.

  19. Scaling characteristics of one-dimensional fractional diffusion processes in the presence of power-law distributed random noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nezhadhaghighi, Mohsen Ghasemi

    2017-08-01

    Here, we present results of numerical simulations and the scaling characteristics of one-dimensional random fluctuations with heavy-tailed probability distribution functions. Assuming that the distribution function of the random fluctuations obeys Lévy statistics with a power-law scaling exponent, we investigate the fractional diffusion equation in the presence of μ -stable Lévy noise. We study the scaling properties of the global width and two-point correlation functions and then compare the analytical and numerical results for the growth exponent β and the roughness exponent α . We also investigate the fractional Fokker-Planck equation for heavy-tailed random fluctuations. We show that the fractional diffusion processes in the presence of μ -stable Lévy noise display special scaling properties in the probability distribution function (PDF). Finally, we numerically study the scaling properties of the heavy-tailed random fluctuations by using the diffusion entropy analysis. This method is based on the evaluation of the Shannon entropy of the PDF generated by the random fluctuations, rather than on the measurement of the global width of the process. We apply the diffusion entropy analysis to extract the growth exponent β and to confirm the validity of our numerical analysis.

  20. The Mean Distance to the nth Neighbour in a Uniform Distribution of Random Points: An Application of Probability Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharyya, Pratip; Chakrabarti, Bikas K.

    2008-01-01

    We study different ways of determining the mean distance (r[subscript n]) between a reference point and its nth neighbour among random points distributed with uniform density in a D-dimensional Euclidean space. First, we present a heuristic method; though this method provides only a crude mathematical result, it shows a simple way of estimating…

  1. The distribution of first hitting times of random walks on directed Erdős-Rényi networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tishby, Ido; Biham, Ofer; Katzav, Eytan

    2017-04-01

    We present analytical results for the distribution of first hitting times of random walkers (RWs) on directed Erdős-Rényi (ER) networks. Starting from a random initial node, a random walker hops randomly along directed edges between adjacent nodes in the network. The path terminates either by the retracing scenario, when the walker enters a node which it has already visited before, or by the trapping scenario, when it becomes trapped in a dead-end node from which it cannot exit. The path length, namely the number of steps, d, pursued by the random walker from the initial node up to its termination, is called the first hitting time. Using recursion equations, we obtain analytical results for the tail distribution of first hitting times, P≤ft(d>\\ell \\right) . The results are found to be in excellent agreement with numerical simulations. It turns out that the distribution P≤ft(d>\\ell \\right) can be expressed as a product of an exponential distribution and a Rayleigh distribution. We obtain expressions for the mean, median and standard deviation of this distribution in terms of the network size and its mean degree. We also calculate the distribution of last hitting times, namely the path lengths of self-avoiding walks on directed ER networks, which do not retrace their paths. The last hitting times are found to be much longer than the first hitting times. The results are compared to those obtained for undirected ER networks. It is found that the first hitting times of RWs in a directed ER network are much longer than in the corresponding undirected network. This is due to the fact that RWs on directed networks do not exhibit the backtracking scenario, which is a dominant termination mechanism of RWs on undirected networks. It is shown that our approach also applies to a broader class of networks, referred to as semi-ER networks, in which the distribution of in-degrees is Poisson, while the out-degrees may follow any desired distribution with the same mean as

  2. Spanish Network for Isotopes in Precipitation: Isotope Spatial distribution and contribution to the knowledge of the hydrological cycle; La Red Espanola de Vigilancia de Isotopos en la Precipitacion (REVIP): distribucion isotopica espacial y aportacion al conocimiento del ciclo hidrologico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diaz-Teijeiro, M. F.; Rodriguez-Arevalo, J.; Castano, S.

    2009-07-01

    The results of seven years of operation of the Spanish Network for Isotopes ({sup 2}H, {sup 1}8O y {sup 3}H) in Precipitation (REVIP) are shown. this Network is managed since 2000 by the Centro de Estudios de Tecnicas Aplicadas of the Centro de Estudios y Experimentacion de Obras Publicas (CEDEX) in collaboration with the Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET). The results of REVIP are sent to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to be integrated in the Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP). The spatial distribution of stable isotopes ({sup 1}8O h {sup 2}H) in precipitation in Spain follows a multiple regression model, based on two geographic factors: latitude and elevation, which is strongly correlated with temperature, an important factor controlling isotope fractionation. This information on {sup 1}8O and {sup 2}H is useful to trace surface and ground waters and, combined with the information, about the spatial and temporal distribution of the Tritium ({sup 3}H) concentration in precipitation, allows to date these waters in order to estimate flow directions and velocities, and to evaluate the residence time of water resources and aquifer vulnerability. (Author)

  3. Non-Convex Economic Dispatch of a Virtual Power Plant via a Distributed Randomized Gradient-Free Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Xie

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The economic dispatch problem of a virtual power plant (VPP is becoming non-convex for distributed generators’ characteristics of valve-point loading effects, prohibited operating zones, and multiple fuel options. In this paper, the economic dispatch model of VPP is established and then solved by a distributed randomized gradient-free algorithm. To deal with the non-smooth objective function, its Gauss approximation is used to construct distributed randomized gradient-free oracles in optimization iterations. A projection operator is also introduced to solve the discontinuous variable space problem. An example simulation is implemented on a modified IEEE-34 bus test system, and the results demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed algorithm.

  4. A Correction of Random Incidence Absorption Coefficients for the Angular Distribution of Acoustic Energy under Measurement Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeong, Cheol-Ho

    2009-01-01

    discrepancies between the measured value and the theoretical random incidence absorption coefficient. Therefore the angular distribution of the incident acoustic energy onto an absorber sample should be taken into account. The angular distribution of the incident energy density was simulated using the beam...... tracing method for various room shapes and source positions. The averaged angular distribution is found to be similar to a Gaussian distribution. As a result, an angle-weighted absorption coefficient was proposed by considering the angular energy distribution to improve the agreement between...... the theoretical absorption coefficient and the reverberation room measurement. The angle-weighted absorption coefficient, together with the size correction, agrees satisfactorily with the measured absorption data by the reverberation chamber method. At high frequencies and for large samples, the averaged...

  5. A Fast Reactive Power Optimization in Distribution Network Based on Large Random Matrix Theory and Data Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanxing Sheng

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a reactive power optimization method based on historical data is investigated to solve the dynamic reactive power optimization problem in distribution network. In order to reflect the variation of loads, network loads are represented in a form of random matrix. Load similarity (LS is defined to measure the degree of similarity between the loads in different days and the calculation method of the load similarity of load random matrix (LRM is presented. By calculating the load similarity between the forecasting random matrix and the random matrix of historical load, the historical reactive power optimization dispatching scheme that most matches the forecasting load can be found for reactive power control usage. The differences of daily load curves between working days and weekends in different seasons are considered in the proposed method. The proposed method is tested on a standard 14 nodes distribution network with three different types of load. The computational result demonstrates that the proposed method for reactive power optimization is fast, feasible and effective in distribution network.

  6. Number of traps and trap depth position on statistical distribution of random telegraph noise in scaled NAND flash memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomita, Toshihiro; Miyaji, Kousuke

    2016-04-01

    The dependence of random telegraph noise (RTN) amplitude distribution on the number of traps and trap depth position is investigated using three-dimensional Monte Carlo device simulation including random dopant fluctuation (RDF) in a 30 nm NAND multi level flash memory. The ΔV th tail distribution becomes broad at fixed double traps, indicating that the number of traps greatly affects the worst RTN characteristics. It is also found that for both fixed single and fixed double traps, the ΔV th distribution in the lowest cell threshold voltage (V th) state shows the broadest distribution among all cell V th states. This is because the drain current flows at the channel surface in the lowest cell V th state, while at a high cell V th, it flows at the deeper position owing to the fringing coupling between the control gate (CG) and the channel. In this work, the ΔV th distribution with the number of traps following the Poisson distribution is also considered to cope with the variations in trap number. As a result, it is found that the number of traps is an important factor for understanding RTN characteristics. In addition, considering trap position in the tunnel oxide thickness direction is also an important factor.

  7. The Global Precipitation Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Scott; Kummerow, Christian

    2000-01-01

    The Global Precipitation Mission (GPM), expected to begin around 2006, is a follow-up to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Unlike TRMM, which primarily samples the tropics, GPM will sample both the tropics and mid-latitudes. The primary, or core, satellite will be a single, enhanced TRMM satellite that can quantify the 3-D spatial distributions of precipitation and its associated latent heat release. The core satellite will be complemented by a constellation of very small and inexpensive drones with passive microwave instruments that will sample the rainfall with sufficient frequency to be not only of climate interest, but also have local, short-term impacts by providing global rainfall coverage at approx. 3 h intervals. The data is expected to have substantial impact upon quantitative precipitation estimation/forecasting and data assimilation into global and mesoscale numerical models. Based upon previous studies of rainfall data assimilation, GPM is expected to lead to significant improvements in forecasts of extratropical and tropical cyclones. For example, GPM rainfall data can provide improved initialization of frontal systems over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The purpose of this talk is to provide information about GPM to the USWRP (U.S. Weather Research Program) community and to discuss impacts on quantitative precipitation estimation/forecasting and data assimilation.

  8. Mesoscale storm and dry period parameters from hourly precipitation data: program documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thorp, J.M.

    1984-09-01

    Wet deposition of airborne chemical pollutants occurs primarily from precipitation. Precipitation rate, amount, duration, and location are important meteorological factors to be considered when attempting to understand the relationship of precipitation to pollutant deposition. The Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) has conducted studies and experiments in numerous locations to collect data that can be incorporated into theories and models that attempt to describe the complex relationship between precipitation occurrence and chemical wet desposition. Model development often requires the use of average rather than random condition as input. To provide mean values of storm parameters, the task, Climatological Analysis of Mesoscale Storms, was created as a facet of the Environmental Protection Agency's related-service project, Precipitation Scavenging Module Development. Within this task computer programs have been developed at PNL which incorporate hourly precipitation data from National Weather Service stations to calculate mean values and frequency distributions of precipitation periods and of the interspersed dry periods. These programs have been written with a degree of flexibiity that will allow user modification for applications to different, but similar, analyses. This report describes in detail the rationale and operation of the two computer programs which produce the tables of average and frequency distributions of storm and dry period parameters from the precipitation data. A listing of the programs and examples of the generated output are included in the appendices. 3 references, 3 figures, 6 tables.

  9. Downscaling atmospheric patterns to multi-site precipitation amounts in southern Scandinavia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gelati, Emiliano; Christensen, O.B.; Rasmussen, P.F.

    2010-01-01

    A non-homogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) is applied for downscaling atmospheric synoptic patterns to winter multi-site daily precipitation amounts. The implemented NHMM assumes precipitation to be conditional on a hidden weather state that follows a Markov chain, whose transition probabilitie...... depend on current atmospheric information. The gridded atmospheric fields are summarized through the singular value decomposition (SVD) technique. SVD is applied to geopotential height and relative humidity at several pressure levels, to identify their principal spatial patterns co...... products of bivariate distributions. Conditional on the weather state, precipitation amounts are modelled separately at each gauge as independent gamma-distributed random variables. This modelling approach is applied to 51 precipitation gauges in Denmark and southern Sweden for the period 1981...

  10. The impact of reflectivity correction and accounting for raindrop size distribution variabilty to improve precipitation estimation by weather radar for an extreme low-land Mesoscale Convective System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hazenberg, P.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2014-01-01

    Between 25 and 27 August 2010 a long-duration mesoscale convective system was observed above the Netherlands, locally giving rise to rainfall accumulations exceeding 150 mm. Correctly measuring the amount of precipitation during such an extreme event is important, both from a hydrological and

  11. Improvement of sampling strategies for randomly distributed hotspots in soil applying a computerized simulation considering the concept of uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrandt, Thomas; Pick, Denis; Einax, Jürgen W

    2012-02-01

    The pollution of soil and environment as a result of human activity is a major problem. Nowadays, the determination of local contaminations is of interest for environmental remediation. These hotspots can have various toxic effects on plants, animals, humans, and the whole ecological system. However, economical and juridical consequences are also possible, e.g., high costs for remediation measures. In this study three sampling strategies (simple random sampling, stratified sampling, and systematic sampling) were applied on randomly distributed hotspot contaminations to prove their efficiency in term of finding hotspots. The results were used for the validation of a computerized simulation. This application can simulate the contamination on a field, the sampling pattern, and a virtual sampling. A constant hit rate showed that none of the sampling patterns could reach better results than others. Furthermore, the uncertainty associated with the results is described by confidence intervals. It is to be considered that the uncertainty during sampling is enormous and will decrease slightly, even the number of samples applied was increased to an unreasonable amount. It is hardly possible to identify the exact number of randomly distributed hotspot contaminations by statistical sampling. But a range of possible results could be calculated. Depending on various parameters such as shape and size of the area, number of hotspots, and sample quantity, optimal sampling strategies could be derived. Furthermore, an estimation of bias arising from sampling methodology is possible. The developed computerized simulation is an innovative tool for optimizing sampling strategies in terrestrial compartments for hotspot distributions.

  12. Rising Precipitation Extremes across Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramchandra Karki

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available As a mountainous country, Nepal is most susceptible to precipitation extremes and related hazards, including severe floods, landslides and droughts that cause huge losses of life and property, impact the Himalayan environment, and hinder the socioeconomic development of the country. Given that the countrywide assessment of such extremes is still lacking, we present a comprehensive picture of prevailing precipitation extremes observed across Nepal. First, we present the spatial distribution of daily extreme precipitation indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI from 210 stations over the period of 1981–2010. Then, we analyze the temporal changes in the computed extremes from 76 stations, featuring long-term continuous records for the period of 1970–2012, by applying a non-parametric Mann−Kendall test to identify the existence of a trend and Sen’s slope method to calculate the true magnitude of this trend. Further, the local trends in precipitation extremes have been tested for their field significance over the distinct physio-geographical regions of Nepal, such as the lowlands, middle mountains and hills and high mountains in the west (WL, WM and WH, respectively, and likewise, in central (CL, CM and CH and eastern (EL, EM and EH Nepal. Our results suggest that the spatial patterns of high-intensity precipitation extremes are quite different to that of annual or monsoonal precipitation. Lowlands (Terai and Siwaliks that feature relatively low precipitation and less wet days (rainy days are exposed to high-intensity precipitation extremes. Our trend analysis suggests that the pre-monsoonal precipitation is significantly increasing over the lowlands and CH, while monsoonal precipitation is increasing in WM and CH and decreasing in CM, CL and EL. On the other hand, post-monsoonal precipitation is significantly decreasing across all of Nepal while winter precipitation is decreasing

  13. Geostatistical Study of Precipitation on the Island of Crete

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agou, Vasiliki D.; Varouchakis, Emmanouil A.; Hristopulos, Dionissios T.

    2015-04-01

    precipitation which are fitted locally to a three-parameter probability distribution, based on which a normalized index is derived. We use the Spartan variogram function to model space-time correlations, because it is more flexible than classical models [3]. The performance of the variogram model is tested by means of leave-one-out cross validation. The variogram model is then used in connection with ordinary kriging to generate precipitation maps for the entire island. In the future, we will explore the joint spatiotemporal evolution of precipitation patterns on Crete. References [1] P. Goovaerts. Geostatistical approaches for incorporating elevation into the spatial interpolation of precipitation. Journal of Hydrology, 228(1):113-129, 2000. [2] N. B. Guttman. Accepting the standardized precipitation index: a calculation algorithm. American Water Resource Association, 35(2):311-322, 1999. [3] D. T Hristopulos. Spartan Gibbs random field models for geostatistical applications. SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing, 24(6):2125-2162, 2003. [4] A.G. Koutroulis, A.-E.K. Vrohidou, and I.K. Tsanis. Spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought for the island of Crete. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 12(2):206-226, 2011. [5] T. B. McKee, N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, page 179-184, Anaheim, California, 1993.

  14. Seismic random noise attenuation by time-frequency peak filtering based on joint time-frequency distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chao; Lin, Hong-bo; Li, Yue; Yang, Bao-jun

    2013-09-01

    Time-Frequency Peak Filtering (TFPF) is an effective method to eliminate pervasive random noise when seismic signals are analyzed. In conventional TFPF, the pseudo Wigner-Ville distribution (PWVD) is used for estimating instantaneous frequency (IF), but is sensitive to noise interferences that mask the borderline between signal and noise and detract the energy concentration on the IF curve. This leads to the deviation of the peaks of the pseudo Wigner-Ville distribution from the instantaneous frequency, which is the cause of undesirable lateral oscillations as well as of amplitude attenuation of the highly varying seismic signal, and ultimately of the biased seismic signal. With the purpose to overcome greatly these drawbacks and increase the signal-to-noise ratio, we propose in this paper a TFPF refinement that is based upon the joint time-frequency distribution (JTFD). The joint time-frequency distribution is obtained by the combination of the PWVD and smooth PWVD (SPWVD). First we use SPWVD to generate a broad time-frequency area of the signal. Then this area is filtered with a step function to remove some divergent time-frequency points. Finally, the joint time-frequency distribution JTFD is obtained from PWVD weighted by this filtered distribution. The objective pursued with all these operations is to reduce the effects of the interferences and enhance the energy concentration around the IF of the signal in the time-frequency domain. Experiments with synthetic and real seismic data demonstrate that TFPF based on the joint time-frequency distribution can effectively suppress strong random noise and preserve events of interest.

  15. Avaliação de estimativas de campos de precipitação para modelagem hidrológica distribuída Assessment of estimated precipitation fields for distributed hydrologic modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriano Rolim da Paz

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available É crescente a disponibilidade e utilização de campos de chuva estimados por sensoriamento remoto ou calculados por modelos de circulação da atmosfera, os quais são freqüentemente utilizados como entrada para modelos hidrológicos distribuídos. A distribuição espacial dos campos de chuva estimados é altamente relevante e deve ser avaliada frente aos campos de chuva observados. Este artigo propõe um método de comparação espaço-temporal entre campos de chuva observados e estimados baseado na comparação pixel a pixel e na construção de tabelas de contingência. Duas abordagens são utilizadas: (i a análise integrada no espaço gera índices de performance que retratam a qualidade do campo de chuva estimada em reproduzir a ocorrência de chuva observada ao longo do tempo; (ii a análise integrada no tempo produz mapas dos índices de performance que resumem a destreza das estimativas de ocorrência de chuva em cada pixel. Como exemplo de aplicação, é analisada a chuva estimada na climatologia do modelo global de circulação da atmosfera CPTEC/COLA sobre a bacia do Rio Grande. Utilizando-se cinco índices de performance, o método proposto permitiu identificar variações sazonais e padrões espaciais na performance das estimativas de chuva em relação a campos de chuva derivados de observações em pluviômetros.There is an increasing availability and application of precipitation fields estimated by remote sensing or calculated by atmospheric circulation models, which are frequently used as input for distributed hydrological models. The spatial distribution of the estimated precipitation fields is extremely important and must be verified against observed precipitation fields. This paper proposes a method for spatiotemporal comparison between observed and estimated precipitation fields based on a pixel by pixel comparison and on contingency tables. Two distinct approaches are carried out: (i the spatial integrated analysis

  16. Effective assimilation of global precipitation: simulation experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo-Yuan Lien

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Past attempts to assimilate precipitation by nudging or variational methods have succeeded in forcing the model precipitation to be close to the observed values. However, the model forecasts tend to lose their additional skill after a few forecast hours. In this study, a local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF is used to effectively assimilate precipitation by allowing ensemble members with better precipitation to receive higher weights in the analysis. In addition, two other changes in the precipitation assimilation process are found to alleviate the problems related to the non-Gaussianity of the precipitation variable: (a transform the precipitation variable into a Gaussian distribution based on its climatological distribution (an approach that could also be used in the assimilation of other non-Gaussian observations and (b only assimilate precipitation at the location where at least some ensemble members have precipitation. Unlike many current approaches, both positive and zero rain observations are assimilated effectively. Observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs are conducted using the Simplified Parametrisations, primitivE-Equation DYnamics (SPEEDY model, a simplified but realistic general circulation model. When uniformly and globally distributed observations of precipitation are assimilated in addition to rawinsonde observations, both the analyses and the medium-range forecasts of all model variables, including precipitation, are significantly improved as compared to only assimilating rawinsonde observations. The effect of precipitation assimilation on the analyses is retained on the medium-range forecasts and is larger in the Southern Hemisphere (SH than that in the Northern Hemisphere (NH because the NH analyses are already made more accurate by the denser rawinsonde stations. These improvements are much reduced when only the moisture field is modified by the precipitation observations. Both the Gaussian transformation and

  17. Distribution of level spacing ratios using one-plus two-body random ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2015-02-03

    Feb 3, 2015 ... Probability distribution (()) of the level spacing ratios has been introduced recently and is used to investigate many-body localization as well as to quantify the distance from integrability on finite size lattices. In this paper, we study the distribution of the ratio of consecutive level spacings using one-body ...

  18. The Effect of Distributed Practice in Undergraduate Statistics Homework Sets: A Randomized Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crissinger, Bryan R.

    2015-01-01

    Most homework sets in statistics courses are constructed so that students concentrate or "mass" their practice on a certain topic in one problem set. Distributed practice homework sets include review problems in each set so that practice on a topic is distributed across problem sets. There is a body of research that points to the…

  19. On the Distribution of Norm of Vector Projection and Rejection of Two Complex Normal Random Vectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Maleki

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Vector projection and vector rejection are highly common and useful operations in mathematics, information theory, and signal processing. In this paper, we find the distribution of the norm of projection and rejection vectors when the original vectors are standard complex normally distributed.

  20. Spectral shaping of a randomized PWM DC-DC converter using maximum entropy probability distributions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Dove, Albert

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available stream_source_info Dove_2018.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 26566 Content-Encoding UTF-8 stream_name Dove_2018.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 SPECTRAL SHAPING OF A RANDOMIZED PWM DC... behind spectral shaping is to select a randomization technique with its associated PDF to analytically obtain a specified spectral profile [21]. The benefits of this idea comes in being able to achieve some level of controllability on the spectral content...

  1. Angular Distribution of Particles Emerging from a Diffusive Region and its Implications for the Fleck-Canfield Random Walk Algorithm for Implicit Monte Carlo Radiation Transport

    CERN Document Server

    Cooper, M A

    2000-01-01

    We present various approximations for the angular distribution of particles emerging from an optically thick, purely isotropically scattering region into a vacuum. Our motivation is to use such a distribution for the Fleck-Canfield random walk method [1] for implicit Monte Carlo (IMC) [2] radiation transport problems. We demonstrate that the cosine distribution recommended in the original random walk paper [1] is a poor approximation to the angular distribution predicted by transport theory. Then we examine other approximations that more closely match the transport angular distribution.

  2. Spatial and temporal distribution of foraminifera in sediments off the central west coast of India and use of their test morphologies for the reconstruction of paleomonsoonal precipitation

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nigam, R.; Khare, N.

    in this region, quantitative spatial distribution data was generated for morpho-groups (angular-asymmetrical and rounded-symmetrical). The distribution revealed less abundance of angular-asymmetrical forms at the river mouth thus indicating an inverse...

  3. Using random walk models to simulate the vertical distribution of particles in a turbulent water column

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Visser, Andre

    1997-01-01

    Random walk simulation has the potential to be an extremely powerful tool in the investigation of turbulence in environmental processes. However, care must be taken in applying such simulations to the motion of particles in turbulent marine systems where turbulent diffusivity is commonly spatiall...

  4. The random field model of the spatial distribution of heavy vehicle loads on long-span bridges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zhicheng; Bao, Yuequan; Li, Hui

    2016-04-01

    A stochastic model based on Markov random field is proposed to model the spatial distribution of vehicle loads on longspan bridges. The bridge deck is divided into a finite set of discrete grid cells, each cell has two states according to whether the cell is occupied by the heavy vehicle load or not, then a four-neighbor lattice-structured undirected graphical model with each node corresponding to a cell state variable is proposed to model the location distribution of heavy vehicle loads on the bridge deck. The node potential is defined to quantitatively describe the randomness of node state, and the edge potential is defined to quantitatively describe the correlation of the connected node pair. The junction tree algorithm is employed to obtain the systematic solutions of inference problems of the graphical model. A marked random variable is assigned to each node to represent the amplitude of the total weight of vehicle applied on the corresponding cell of the bridge deck. The rationality of the model is validated by a Monte Carlo simulation of a learned model based on monitored data of a cable-stayed bridge.

  5. Marginal Distributions of Random Vectors Generated by Affine Transformations of Independent Two-Piece Normal Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maximiano Pinheiro

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Marginal probability density and cumulative distribution functions are presented for multidimensional variables defined by nonsingular affine transformations of vectors of independent two-piece normal variables, the most important subclass of Ferreira and Steel's general multivariate skewed distributions. The marginal functions are obtained by first expressing the joint density as a mixture of Arellano-Valle and Azzalini's unified skew-normal densities and then using the property of closure under marginalization of the latter class.

  6. Marginal Distributions of Random Vectors Generated by Affine Transformations of Independent Two-Piece Normal Variables

    OpenAIRE

    Maximiano Pinheiro

    2012-01-01

    Marginal probability density and cumulative distribution functions are presented for multidimensional variables defined by nonsingular affine transformations of vectors of independent two-piece normal variables, the most important subclass of Ferreira and Steel's general multivariate skewed distributions. The marginal functions are obtained by first expressing the joint density as a mixture of Arellano-Valle and Azzalini's unified skew-normal densities and then using the property of closure u...

  7. Are anesthesia start and end times randomly distributed? The influence of electronic records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deal, Litisha G; Nyland, Michael E; Gravenstein, Nikolaus; Tighe, Patrick

    2014-06-01

    To perform a frequency analysis of start minute digits (SMD) and end minute digits (EMD) taken from the electronic, computer-assisted, and manual anesthesia billing-record systems. Retrospective cross-sectional review. University medical center. This cross-sectional review was conducted on billing records from a single healthcare institution over a 15-month period. A total of 30,738 cases were analyzed. For each record, the start time and end time were recorded. Distributions of SMD and EMD were tested against the null hypothesis of a frequency distribution equivalently spread between zero and nine. SMD and EMD aggregate distributions each differed from equivalency (P record, no differences were found between the recorded and expected equivalent distribution patterns for electronic anesthesia records for start minute (P records maintained nonequivalent distribution patterns for SMD and EMD (P record system, with automated time capture of events verified by the user, produces a more unified distribution of billing times than do more traditional methods of entering billing times. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. The impact of randomness on the distribution of wealth: Some economic aspects of the Wright-Fisher diffusion process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouleau, Nicolas; Chorro, Christophe

    2017-08-01

    In this paper we consider some elementary and fair zero-sum games of chance in order to study the impact of random effects on the wealth distribution of N interacting players. Even if an exhaustive analytical study of such games between many players may be tricky, numerical experiments highlight interesting asymptotic properties. In particular, we emphasize that randomness plays a key role in concentrating wealth in the extreme, in the hands of a single player. From a mathematical perspective, we interestingly adopt some diffusion limits for small and high-frequency transactions which are otherwise extensively used in population genetics. Finally, the impact of small tax rates on the preceding dynamics is discussed for several regulation mechanisms. We show that taxation of income is not sufficient to overcome this extreme concentration process in contrast to the uniform taxation of capital which stabilizes the economy and prevents agents from being ruined.

  9. Random errors of oceanic monthly rainfall derived from SSM/I using probability distribution functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Alfred T. C.; Chiu, Long S.; Wilheit, Thomas T.

    1993-01-01

    Global averages and random errors associated with the monthly oceanic rain rates derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data using the technique developed by Wilheit et al. (1991) are computed. Accounting for the beam-filling bias, a global annual average rain rate of 1.26 m is computed. The error estimation scheme is based on the existence of independent (morning and afternoon) estimates of the monthly mean. Calculations show overall random errors of about 50-60 percent for each 5 deg x 5 deg box. The results are insensitive to different sampling strategy (odd and even days of the month). Comparison of the SSM/I estimates with raingage data collected at the Pacific atoll stations showed a low bias of about 8 percent, a correlation of 0.7, and an rms difference of 55 percent.

  10. Precipitation Indices Low Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Engelen, A. F. V.; Ynsen, F.; Buisman, J.; van der Schrier, G.

    2009-09-01

    (+2): Wide scale river flooding, marshy acres and meadows.-Farmers cope with poor harvests of hay, grains, fruit etc. resulting in famines.-Late grape harvests, poor yield quantity and quality of wine. Wet period (+1): High water levels cq discharges of major rivers, tributaries and brooks, local river floodings, marshy acres and meadows in the low lying areas.-Wearisome and hampered agriculture. Normal (0) Dry period (-1): Low water levels cq discharges of major rivers, tributaries and brooks. Some brooks may dry up.-Summer half year: local short of yield of grass, hay and other forage.-Summer half year: moor-, peat- and forest fires. Very dry period (-2): Very low water levels cq discharges of major rivers and tributaries. Brooks and wells dry up. Serious shortage of drinking water; especially in summer.-Major agricultural damage, shortage of water, mortality stock of cattle. Shortage of grain. Flour can not be produced due to water mills running out of water, shortage of bread, bread riots, famines.-Large scale forest and peat areas, resulting in serious air pollution. Town fires. By verifying the historical evidence on these criterions, a series of 5 step indices ranging from very dry to very wet for summer and winter half year of the Low Countries was obtained. Subsequently these indices series were compared with the instrumentally observed seasonal precipitation sums for De Bilt (1735-2008), which is considered to be representative for the Central Netherlands. For winter (Oct-March) and summer half year (Apr.-Sept.) the accumulated precipitation amounts are calculated; these amounts are approximately normally distributed. Based on this distribution, the cumulative frequency distribution is calculated. By tabulating the number of summers in the pre-instrumental period 1201-1750 for each of the drought classes, a distribution is calculated which is then related to the modern accumulated precipitation distribution. Assuming that the accumulated precipitation amount

  11. On The Distribution Of Mixed Sum Of Independent Random Variables One Of Them Associated With Srivastava's Polynomials And H -Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh Jagdev

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we obtain the distribution of mixed sum of two independent random variables with different probability density functions. One with probability density function defined in finite range and the other with probability density function defined in infinite range and associated with product of Srivastava's polynomials and H-function. We use the Laplace transform and its inverse to obtain our main result. The result obtained here is quite general in nature and is capable of yielding a large number of corresponding new and known results merely by specializing the parameters involved therein. To illustrate, some special cases of our main result are also given.

  12. Characteristics of flux-time profiles, temporal evolution, and spatial distribution of radiation-belt electron precipitation bursts in the upper ionosphere before great and giant earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey Pulinets

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available

    The analysis of energetic electron observations made by the DEMETER satellite reveals that radiation belt electron precipitation (RBEP bursts are observed in general several (~1-6 days before a large (M > 6.5 earthquake (EQ in the presence of broad band (~1-20 kHz VLF waves. The EBs show in general a relative peak-to-background flux increase usually < 100, they have a time duration of ~0.5 – 3 min, and their energy spectrum reach up to energies <~500 keV. The RBEP activity is observed as one, two or three EBs throughout a semi-orbit, depended on the magnetic field structure above the EQ epicenter. A statistical analysis has been made for earthquakes in Japan, which reveals a standard temporal variation of the number of EBs, which begins with an incremental rate several days before major earthquakes, and after a maximum, decreases so that the electron precipitation ceases above the epicenter. Some earthquake induced EBs were observed not only in the nightside ionosphere, but also in the dayside ionosphere.

     

  13. A Random Forest Approach to Predict the Spatial Distribution of Sediment Pollution in an Estuarine System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modeling the magnitude and distribution of sediment-bound pollutants in estuaries is often limited by incomplete knowledge of the site and inadequate sample density. To address these modeling limitations, a decision-support tool framework was conceived that predicts sediment cont...

  14. Power-law distribution as a result of asynchronous random switching between Malthus and Verhulst kinetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zygadło, Ryszard

    2008-02-01

    It is shown analytically that the flashing annihilation term of a Verhulst kinetic leads to the power-law distribution in the stationary state. For the frequency of switching slower than twice the free growth rate this provides the quasideterministic source of a Lévy noise at the macroscopic level.

  15. Exit times for a class of random walks: exact distribution results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Martin

    2011-01-01

    the exit possible has a Laplace transform which is a rational function. The expected exit time is also determined and the paper concludes with exact distribution results concerning exits from bounded intervals. The proofs use simple martingale techniques together with some classical expansions...

  16. A study into the distribution of gunshot residue particles in the random population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, Nick; Brown, Hayley; Cook, Michael; Redman, Kahlee; Condon, Tanith; Wrobel, Harald; Kirkbride, K Paul; Kobus, Hilton

    2016-05-01

    When considering the impact and value of gunshot residues (GSR) as forensic trace evidence, the likelihood of a suspect producing a positive GSR analysis result without having direct exposure to a firearm is a major consideration. Therefore, the random prevalence of GSR and 'GSR-like' residues in the wider population is a highly pertinent question when considering the probative value of such evidence. The random prevalence of GSR in two Australian jurisdictions - Victoria and South Australia - was assessed through the collection and analysis of GSR samples obtained from randomly selected members of the public. Volunteers were asked to declare any firearms use, hobbies or potential firearms exposure before allowing their hands to be sampled using aluminium GSR sample stubs coated in adhesive tape. A total of 289 samples, 120 from Victoria and 169 from South Australia were collected and analysed using scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy dispersive X-ray microanalysis (SEM-EDS). Across all samples, three 'characteristic' three-component Pb/Ba/Sb particles were detected from a single subject in South Australia, corresponding to an overall prevalence of 0.3%. Two-component 'consistent' particles were more prevalent, with Pb/Sb particles being the most frequently occurring, in 8% of samples, and in South Australia only. A number of samples, approximately 7%, showed populations of single element particles of Pb, Ba and Sb, which has the potential to generate a false positive for GSR if using a bulk analysis technique such as NAA or AAS. The prevalence of GSR or 'GSR like' particles in this study matches closely with similar surveys conducted in other jurisdictions. Such surveys are a useful foundation for the creation of a probabilistic method for the assessment of GSR evidence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Phase transitions of Ising mixed spin 1 and 3/2 with random crystal field distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabri, S.; EL Falaki, M.; EL Yadari, M.; Benyoussef, A.; EL Kenz, A.

    2016-10-01

    The thermal and magnetic properties of the mixed spin-1 and spin-3/2 in the presence of the random crystal field are studied within the mean field approach based on the Bogoliubov inequality for the Gibbs free energy. The model exhibits first, second order transitions, a tricritical point, triple point and an isolated critical end point. It is found that the system displays simple and double compensation temperatures, five topologies of the phase diagrams. A re-entrant phenomenon is also discussed and the thermal dependences of total magnetization according to extended Neel classification have been also given.

  18. Encounter distribution of two random walkers on a finite one-dimensional interval

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tejedor, Vincent; Schad, Michaela; Metzler, Ralf [Physics Department, Technical University of Munich, James Franck Strasse, 85747 Garching (Germany); Benichou, Olivier; Voituriez, Raphael, E-mail: metz@ph.tum.de [Laboratoire de Physique Theorique de la Matiere Condensee (UMR 7600), Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, 4 Place Jussieu, 75255 Paris Cedex (France)

    2011-09-30

    We analyse the first-passage properties of two random walkers confined to a finite one-dimensional domain. For the case of absorbing boundaries at the endpoints of the interval, we derive the probability that the two particles meet before either one of them becomes absorbed at one of the boundaries. For the case of reflecting boundaries, we obtain the mean first encounter time of the two particles. Our approach leads to closed-form expressions that are more easily tractable than a previously derived solution in terms of the Weierstrass' elliptic function. (paper)

  19. A copula-based downscaling methodology of RCM precipitation fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Manuel

    2016-04-01

    Many hydrological studies require long term precipitation time series at a fine spatial resolution. While regional climate models are nowadays capable of simulating reasonable high-resolution precipitation fields, the long computing time makes the generation of such long term time series often infeasible for practical purposes. We introduce a comparatively fast stochastic approach to simulate precipitation fields which resemble the spatial dependencies and density distributions of the dynamic model. Nested RCM simulations at two different spatial resolutions serve as a training set to derive the statistics which will then be used in a random path simulation where fine scale precipitation values are simulated from a multivariate Gaussian Copula. The chosen RCM is the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). Simulated daily precipitation fields of the RCM are based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data from 1971 to 2000 and are available at a spatial resolution of 42 km (Europe) and 7 km (Germany). In order to evaluate the method, the stochastic algorithm is applied to the nested German domain and the resulting spatial dependencies and density distributions are compared to the original 30 years long 7 km WRF simulations. Preliminary evaluations based on QQ-plots for one year indicate that the distributions of the downscaled values are very similar to the original values for most cells. In this presentation, a detailed overview of the stochastic downscaling algorithm and the evaluation of the long term simulations are given. Additionally, an outlook for a 5 km and 1 km downscaling experiment for urban hydrology studies is presented.

  20. Uncertainty in determining extreme precipitation thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bingjun; Chen, Junfan; Chen, Xiaohong; Lian, Yanqing; Wu, Lili

    2013-10-01

    Extreme precipitation events are rare and occur mostly on a relatively small and local scale, which makes it difficult to set the thresholds for extreme precipitations in a large basin. Based on the long term daily precipitation data from 62 observation stations in the Pearl River Basin, this study has assessed the applicability of the non-parametric, parametric, and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) methods in determining extreme precipitation threshold (EPT) and the certainty to EPTs from each method. Analyses from this study show the non-parametric absolute critical value method is easy to use, but unable to reflect the difference of spatial rainfall distribution. The non-parametric percentile method can account for the spatial distribution feature of precipitation, but the problem with this method is that the threshold value is sensitive to the size of rainfall data series and is subjected to the selection of a percentile thus make it difficult to determine reasonable threshold values for a large basin. The parametric method can provide the most apt description of extreme precipitations by fitting extreme precipitation distributions with probability distribution functions; however, selections of probability distribution functions, the goodness-of-fit tests, and the size of the rainfall data series can greatly affect the fitting accuracy. In contrast to the non-parametric and the parametric methods which are unable to provide information for EPTs with certainty, the DFA method although involving complicated computational processes has proven to be the most appropriate method that is able to provide a unique set of EPTs for a large basin with uneven spatio-temporal precipitation distribution. The consistency between the spatial distribution of DFA-based thresholds with the annual average precipitation, the coefficient of variation (CV), and the coefficient of skewness (CS) for the daily precipitation further proves that EPTs determined by the DFA method

  1. Implementation and Performance Evaluation of Distributed Cloud Storage Solutions using Random Linear Network Coding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzek, Frank H. P.; Toth, Tamas; Szabados, Aron

    2014-01-01

    Distributed storage is usually considered within a cloud provider to ensure availability and reliability of the data. However, the user is still directly dependent on the quality of a single system. It is also entrusting the service provider with large amounts of private data, which may be accessed...... by a successful attack to that cloud system or even be inspected by government agencies in some countries. This paper advocates a general framework for network coding enabled distributed storage over multiple commercial cloud solutions, such as, Dropbox, Box, Skydrive, and Google Drive, as a way to address...... these reliability and privacy issues. By means of theoretical analysis and real– life implementations, we show not only that our framework constitutes a viable solution to increase the reliability of stored data and to ensure data privacy, but it also provides a way to reduce the storage costs and to increase...

  2. Free energy distribution and hydrothermal mineral precipitation in Hadean submarine alkaline vent systems: Importance of iron redox reactions under anoxic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibuya, Takazo; Russell, Michael J.; Takai, Ken

    2016-02-01

    Thermodynamic calculations of mixing between hypothetical seawater and hydrothermal fluid in the Hadean deep ocean were carried out to predict saturation states of mineral precipitates and redox reactions that could occur in Hadean submarine alkaline hydrothermal systems associated with the serpentinization of ultramafic rocks. In the calculations, the seawater was assumed to be weakly acidic (pH = 5.5) and to include carbon dioxide, ferrous iron and silica, with or without nitrate, while the Hadean hydrothermal fluid was assumed to be highly alkaline (pH = 11) and to contain abundant molecular hydrogen, methane and bisulfide, based on the Archean geologic record, the modern low-temperature alkaline hydrothermal vent fluid (Lost City field), and experimental and theoretical considerations. The modeling indicates that potential mineral precipitates in the mixing zone (hydrothermal chimney structures) could consist mainly of iron sulfides but also of ferrous serpentine and brucite, siderite, and ferric iron-bearing minerals such as goethite, hematite and/or magnetite as minor phases. The precipitation of ferric iron-bearing minerals suggests that chemical iron oxidation would be made possible by pH shift even under anoxic condition. In the mixing zone, comprising an inorganic barrier precipitated at the interface of the two contrasting solutions, various redox reactions release free energy with the potential to drive endergonic reactions, assuming the involvement of coupling inorganic protoenzymes. Hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis and acetogenesis - long considered the most ancient forms of biological energy metabolisms - are able to achieve higher maximum energy yield (>0.5 kJ/kg hydrothermal fluid) than those in the modern serpentinization-associated seafloor hydrothermal systems (e.g., Kairei field). Furthermore, the recently proposed methanotrophic acetogenesis pathway was also thermodynamically investigated. It is known that methanotrophic acetogenesis would

  3. Random Acts of Violence? Examining Probabilistic Independence of the Temporal Distribution of Mass Killing Events in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Douglas M; Jacobson, Sheldon H

    2017-12-01

    Recent mass killings, such as those in Newtown, Connecticut, and Aurora, Colorado, have brought new attention to mass killings in the United States. This article examines 323 mass killings taking place between January 1, 2006, and October 4, 2016, to assess how they are distributed over time. In particular, we find that they appear to be uniformly distributed over time, which suggests that their rate has remained stable over the past decade. Moreover, analysis of subsets of these mass killings sharing a common trait (e.g., family killings, public killings) suggests that they exhibit a memoryless property, suggesting that mass killing events within each category are random in the sense that the occurrence of a mass killing event does not signal whether another mass killing event is imminent. However, the same memoryless property is not found when combining all mass killings into a single analysis, consistent with earlier research that found evidence of a contagion effect among mass killing events. Because of the temporal randomness of public mass killings and the wide geographic area over which they can occur, these results imply that these events may be best addressed by systemic infrastructure-based interventions that deter such events, incorporate resiliency into the response system, or impede such events until law enforcement can respond when they do occur.

  4. GPM GROUND VALIDATION PRECIPITATION VIDEO IMAGER (PVI) GCPEX V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Precipitation Video Imager (PVI) collected precipitation particle images and drop size distribution data during November 2011 through March 2012 as part of the...

  5. Statistical simulation of ensembles of precipitation fields for data assimilation applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haese, Barbara; Hörning, Sebastian; Chwala, Christian; Bárdossy, András; Schalge, Bernd; Kunstmann, Harald

    2017-04-01

    The simulation of the hydrological cycle by models is an indispensable tool for a variety of environmental challenges such as climate prediction, water resources management, or flood forecasting. One of the crucial variables within the hydrological system, and accordingly one of the main drivers for terrestrial hydrological processes, is precipitation. A correct reproduction of the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation is crucial for the quality and performance of hydrological applications. In our approach we stochastically generate precipitation fields conditioned on various precipitation observations. Rain gauges provide high-quality information for a specific measurement point, but their spatial representativeness is often rare. Microwave links, e. g. from commercial cellular operators, on the other hand can be used to estimate line integrals of near-surface rainfall information. They provide a very dense observational system compared to rain gauges. A further prevalent source of precipitation information are weather radars, which provide rainfall pattern informations. In our approach we derive precipitation fields, which are conditioned on combinations of these different observation types. As method to generate precipitation fields we use the random mixing method. Following this method a precipitation field is received as a linear combination of unconditional spatial random fields, where the spatial dependence structure is described by copulas. The weights of the linear combination are chosen in the way that the observations and the spatial structure of precipitation are reproduced. One main advantage of the random mixing method is the opportunity to consider linear and non-linear constraints. For a demonstration of the method we use virtual observations generated from a virtual reality of the Neckar catchment. These virtual observations mimic advantages and disadvantages of real observations. This virtual data set allows us to evaluate simulated

  6. Tukey g-and-h Random Fields

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Ganggang

    2016-07-15

    We propose a new class of trans-Gaussian random fields named Tukey g-and-h (TGH) random fields to model non-Gaussian spatial data. The proposed TGH random fields have extremely flexible marginal distributions, possibly skewed and/or heavy-tailed, and, therefore, have a wide range of applications. The special formulation of the TGH random field enables an automatic search for the most suitable transformation for the dataset of interest while estimating model parameters. Asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator and the probabilistic properties of the TGH random fields are investigated. An efficient estimation procedure, based on maximum approximated likelihood, is proposed and an extreme spatial outlier detection algorithm is formulated. Kriging and probabilistic prediction with TGH random fields are developed along with prediction confidence intervals. The predictive performance of TGH random fields is demonstrated through extensive simulation studies and an application to a dataset of total precipitation in the south east of the United States.

  7. Standardized precipitation index based on pearson type III distribution Índice padronizado de precipitação baseado na distribuição pearson tipo III

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Constantino Blain

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The initial step in calculating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI is to determine a probability density function (pdf that describes the precipitation series under analysis. Once this pdf is determined, the cumulative probability of an observed precipitation amount is computed. The inverse normal function is then applied to the cumulative probability. The result is the SPI. This article assessed the changes in SPI final values, when computed based on Gamma 2-parameters (Gam and Pearson Type III (PE3 distributions (SPIGam and SPIPE3, respectively. Monthly rainfall series, available from five weather stations of the State of São Paulo, were chosen for this study. Considering quantitative and qualitative assessments of goodness-of-fit (evaluated at 1-, 3-, and 6-months precipitation totals, the PE3 distribution seems to be a better choice than the Gam distribution, in describing the long-term rainfall series of the State of São Paulo. In addition, it was observed that the number of SPI time series that could be seen as normally distributed was higher when this drought index was computed from the PE3 distribution. Thus, the use of the Pearson type III distribution within the calculation algorithm of the SPI is recommended in the State of São Paulo.O cálculo do Índice Padronizado de Precipitação (IPP inicia-se com a adoção de uma distribuição paramétrica (dp utilizada para a estimativa das probabilidades de ocorrência associadas a uma série de precipitação pluvial. Após essa escolha, a probabilidade acumulada de ocorrência de um determinado valor de precipitação é calculada. O IPP é obtido após a aplicação da função normal inversa a essa probabilidade acumulada. O artigo avaliou as alterações nos valores finais do IPP, quando calculado com base nas distribuições Gama com dois parâmetros (Gam e Pearson tipo III (PE3; IPPGam e IPPPE3, respectivamente. Utilizaram-se dados de precipitação pluvial de cinco

  8. Percolation and lasing in real 3D crystals with inhomogeneous distributed random pores

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burlak, Gennadiy, E-mail: gburlak@uaem.mx; Calderón-Segura, Yessica

    2014-11-15

    We systematically study the percolation phase transition in real 3D crystals where not only the state of pores but also their radius r and displacement s are random valued numbers. The mean values R=〈r〉 and S=〈s〉 emerge as additional spatial scales in such an extended network. This leads to variations of the threshold (critical) percolation probability p{sub C} and the percolation order parameter P that become to be the intricate functions of R and S. Our numerical simulations have shown that in such extended system the incipient spanning cluster can arise even for situations where for simple periodical system the percolation does not exist. We analyzed the validity of the nearest neighbor's approximation and found that such approximation is not valid for materials with large dispersivity of pores. The lasing of nanoemitters incorporated in such percolating spanning cluster is studied too. This effect can open interesting perspectives in modern nano- and micro-information technologies.

  9. Exact distributions of cover times for N independent random walkers in one dimension

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majumdar, Satya N.; Sabhapandit, Sanjib; Schehr, Grégory

    2016-12-01

    We study the probability density function (PDF) of the cover time tc of a finite interval of size L by N independent one-dimensional Brownian motions, each with diffusion constant D . The cover time tc is the minimum time needed such that each point of the entire interval is visited by at least one of the N walkers. We derive exact results for the full PDF of tc for arbitrary N ≥1 for both reflecting and periodic boundary conditions. The PDFs depend explicitly on N and on the boundary conditions. In the limit of large N , we show that tc approaches its average value of ≈L2/(16 D lnN ) with fluctuations vanishing as 1 /(lnN) 2 . We also compute the centered and scaled limiting distributions for large N for both boundary conditions and show that they are given by nontrivial N independent scaling functions.

  10. Global synchronization of memristive neural networks subject to random disturbances via distributed pinning control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zhenyuan; Yang, Shaofu; Wang, Jun

    2016-12-01

    This paper presents theoretical results on global exponential synchronization of multiple memristive neural networks in the presence of external noise by means of two types of distributed pinning control. The multiple memristive neural networks are coupled in a general structure via a nonlinear function, which consists of a linear diffusive term and a discontinuous sign term. A pinning impulsive control law is introduced in the coupled system to synchronize all neural networks. Sufficient conditions are derived for ascertaining global exponential synchronization in mean square. In addition, a pinning adaptive control law is developed to achieve global exponential synchronization in mean square. Both pinning control laws utilize only partial state information received from the neighborhood of the controlled neural network. Simulation results are presented to substantiate the theoretical results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Identification and Quantification of Uncertainties Related to Using Distributed X-band Radar Estimated Precipitation as input in Urban Drainage Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lisbeth

    The Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) is a small scale weather radar providing distributed measurements of rainfall primarily for use as input in hydrological applications. As any other weather radar the LAWR measurement of the rainfall is an indirect measurement since it does not measure the rainf...... revealing interesting new spatial characteristics of extreme rainfall events not earlier observed....... in connection with boundary assignment besides general improved understanding of the benefits and pitfalls in using distributed rainfall data as input to models. In connection with the use of LAWR data in urban drainage context, the potential for using LAWR data for extreme rainfall statistics has been studied...

  12. Multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled study of the nitric oxide scavenger pyridoxalated hemoglobin polyoxyethylene in distributive shock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinasewitz, Gary T; Privalle, Christopher T; Imm, Amy; Steingrub, Jay S; Malcynski, John T; Balk, Robert A; DeAngelo, Joseph

    2008-07-01

    To assess the safety and efficacy of the hemoglobin-based nitric oxide scavenger, pyridoxalated hemoglobin polyoxyethylene (PHP), in patients with distributive shock. Phase II multicenter, randomized (1:1), placebo-controlled study. Fifteen intensive care units in North America. Sixty-two patients with distributive shock, > or = 2 systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria, and persistent catecholamine dependence despite adequate fluid resuscitation (pulmonary capillary wedge pressure > or = 12). Patients were randomized to PHP at 0.25 mL/kg/hr (20 mg/kg/hr), or an equal volume of placebo, infused for up to 100 hrs, in addition to conventional vasopressor therapy. Because treatment could not be blinded, vasopressors and ventilatory support were weaned by protocol. Sixty-two patients were randomized to PHP (n = 33) or placebo (n = 29). Age, sex, etiology of shock (sepsis in 94%), and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores (33.1 +/- 8.3 vs. 30 +/- 7) were similar in PHP and placebo patients, respectively. Baseline plasma nitrite and nitrate levels were markedly elevated in both groups. PHP infusion increased systemic blood pressure within minutes. Overall 28-day mortality was similar (58% PHP vs. 59% placebo), but PHP survivors were weaned off vasopressors faster (13.7 +/- 8.2 vs. 26.3 +/- 21.4 hrs; p = .07) and spent less time on mechanical ventilation (10.4 +/- 10.2 vs. 17.4 +/- 9.9 days; p = .21). The risk ratio (PHP/placebo) for mortality was .79 (95% confidence interval, .39-1.59) when adjusted for age, sex, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, and etiology of sepsis. No excess medical interventions were noted with PHP use. PHP survivors left the intensive care unit earlier (13.6 +/- 8.6 vs. 17.9 +/- 8.2 days; p = .21) and more were discharged by day 28 (57.1 vs. 41.7%). PHP is a hemodynamically active nitric oxide scavenger. The role of PHP in distributive shock remains to be determined.

  13. Randomized Soil Survey of the Distribution of Burkholderia pseudomallei in Rice Fields in Laos ▿ †

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rattanavong, Sayaphet; Wuthiekanun, Vanaporn; Langla, Sayan; Amornchai, Premjit; Sirisouk, Joy; Phetsouvanh, Rattanaphone; Moore, Catrin E.; Peacock, Sharon J.; Buisson, Yves; Newton, Paul N.

    2011-01-01

    Melioidosis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in Southeast Asia, where the causative organism (Burkholderia pseudomallei) is present in the soil. In the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Laos), B. pseudomallei is a significant cause of sepsis around the capital, Vientiane, and has been isolated in soil near the city, adjacent to the Mekong River. We explored whether B. pseudomallei occurs in Lao soil distant from the Mekong River, drawing three axes across northwest, northeast, and southern Laos to create nine sampling areas in six provinces. Within each sampling area, a random rice field site containing a grid of 100 sampling points each 5 m apart was selected. Soil was obtained from a depth of 30 cm and cultured for B. pseudomallei. Four of nine sites (44%) were positive for B. pseudomallei, including all three sites in Saravane Province, southern Laos. The highest isolation frequency was in east Saravane, where 94% of soil samples were B. pseudomallei positive with a geometric mean concentration of 464 CFU/g soil (95% confidence interval, 372 to 579 CFU/g soil; range, 25 to 10,850 CFU/g soil). At one site in northwest Laos (Luangnamtha), only one sample (1%) was positive for B. pseudomallei, at a concentration of 80 CFU/g soil. Therefore, B. pseudomallei occurs in Lao soils beyond the immediate vicinity of the Mekong River, alerting physicians to the likelihood of melioidosis in these areas. Further studies are needed to investigate potential climatic, soil, and biological determinants of this heterogeneity. PMID:21075883

  14. Interactive effects of water table and precipitation on net CO2 assimilation of three co-occurring Sphagnum mosses differing in distribution above the water table

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robroek, B.J.M.; Schouten, M.G.C.; Limpens, J.; Berendse, F.; Poorter, H.

    2009-01-01

    Sphagnum cuspidatum, S. magellanicum and S. rubellum are three co-occurring peat mosses, which naturally have a different distribution along the microtopographical gradient of the surface of peatlands. We set out an experiment to assess the interactive effects of water table (low: -10 cm and high:

  15. Probability distribution of intersymbol distances in random symbolic sequences: Applications to improving detection of keywords in texts and of amino acid clustering in proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpena, Pedro; Bernaola-Galván, Pedro A; Carretero-Campos, Concepción; Coronado, Ana V

    2016-11-01

    Symbolic sequences have been extensively investigated in the past few years within the framework of statistical physics. Paradigmatic examples of such sequences are written texts, and deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) and protein sequences. In these examples, the spatial distribution of a given symbol (a word, a DNA motif, an amino acid) is a key property usually related to the symbol importance in the sequence: The more uneven and far from random the symbol distribution, the higher the relevance of the symbol to the sequence. Thus, many techniques of analysis measure in some way the deviation of the symbol spatial distribution with respect to the random expectation. The problem is then to know the spatial distribution corresponding to randomness, which is typically considered to be either the geometric or the exponential distribution. However, these distributions are only valid for very large symbolic sequences and for many occurrences of the analyzed symbol. Here, we obtain analytically the exact, randomly expected spatial distribution valid for any sequence length and any symbol frequency, and we study its main properties. The knowledge of the distribution allows us to define a measure able to properly quantify the deviation from randomness of the symbol distribution, especially for short sequences and low symbol frequency. We apply the measure to the problem of keyword detection in written texts and to study amino acid clustering in protein sequences. In texts, we show how the results improve with respect to previous methods when short texts are analyzed. In proteins, which are typically short, we show how the measure quantifies unambiguously the amino acid clustering and characterize its spatial distribution.

  16. Coupling Stable Water Isotopes in Vapor and Precipitation to Raindrop Size Distributions at a Mid-latitude Tall-tower Site to Evaluate the Role of Rain Evaporation in Boundary Layer Moisture Recycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaushik, A.; Noone, D.

    2016-12-01

    The continental boundary layer moisture balance plays an important role in regulating water and energy exchange between the surface and the atmosphere, yet the mechanisms associated with moistening and drying are both poorly observed and modeled. Stable water isotope ratio measurements can provide insights into air mass origins, convection dynamics and mechanisms dominating atmosphere-land surface water fluxes. Profiles can be exploited to improve estimates of boundary layer moistening associated with evaporation of falling precipitation and contributions from surface evapotranspiration. We present two years of in situ tower-based measurements of isotope ratios of water vapor and precipitation (δD and δ18O) and raindrop size distributions from the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO) tall-tower site in Erie, Colorado. Isotope vapor measurements were made at 1 Hz with a full cycle from the surface to 300 meters recorded every 80 minutes. At the surface and 300m, water samples were collected during precipitation events and raindrop sizes were measured continuously using Parsivel instruments. We use this unique suite of measurements and, in particular, exploit the differences between the surface and 300m observations to constrain the surface layer hydrological mass balance during and after rain events, and evaluate parameterization choices for rain evaporation and moisture recycling in current isotope-enabled climate models. Aggregate raindrop size measurements showed shifts from populations of smaller raindrops at 300m to larger raindrops at the surface, contrary to what is expected for rain evaporation. Convective storms resulted in more uniform signatures between the surface and 300m, as well as longer isotope equilibration and adjustment time scales, whereas low Dexcess signatures (refining current global climate models, but also for interpreting proxy records connected to rainfall signatures that aid in understanding past hydrology.

  17. Non-random distribution of individual genetic diversity along an environmental gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porlier, Mélody; Bélisle, Marc; Garant, Dany

    2009-06-12

    Improving our knowledge of the links between ecology and evolution is especially critical in the actual context of global rapid environmental changes. A critical step in that direction is to quantify how variation in ecological factors linked to habitat modifications might shape observed levels of genetic variability in wild populations. Still, little is known on the factors affecting levels and distribution of genetic diversity at the individual level, despite its vital underlying role in evolutionary processes. In this study, we assessed the effects of habitat quality on population structure and individual genetic diversity of tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) breeding along a gradient of agricultural intensification in southern Québec, Canada. Using a landscape genetics approach, we found that individual genetic diversity was greater in poorer quality habitats. This counter-intuitive result was partly explained by the settlement patterns of tree swallows across the landscape. Individuals of higher genetic diversity arrived earlier on their breeding grounds and settled in the first available habitats, which correspond to intensive cultures. Our results highlight the importance of investigating the effects of environmental variability on individual genetic diversity, and of integrating information on landscape structure when conducting such studies.

  18. Messaging to Increase Public Support for Naloxone Distribution Policies in the United States: Results from a Randomized Survey Experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcus A Bachhuber

    Full Text Available Barriers to public support for naloxone distribution include lack of knowledge, concerns about potential unintended consequences, and lack of sympathy for people at risk of overdose.A randomized survey experiment was conducted with a nationally-representative web-based survey research panel (GfK KnowledgePanel. Participants were randomly assigned to read different messages alone or in combination: 1 factual information about naloxone; 2 pre-emptive refutation of potential concerns about naloxone distribution; and 3 a sympathetic narrative about a mother whose daughter died of an opioid overdose. Participants were then asked if they support or oppose policies related to naloxone distribution. For each policy item, logistic regression models were used to test the effect of each message exposure compared with the no-exposure control group.The final sample consisted of 1,598 participants (completion rate: 72.6%. Factual information and the sympathetic narrative alone each led to higher support for training first responders to use naloxone, providing naloxone to friends and family members of people using opioids, and passing laws to protect people who administer naloxone. Participants receiving the combination of the sympathetic narrative and factual information, compared to factual information alone, were more likely to support all policies: providing naloxone to friends and family members (OR: 2.0 [95% CI: 1.4 to 2.9], training first responders to use naloxone (OR: 2.0 [95% CI: 1.2 to 3.4], passing laws to protect people if they administer naloxone (OR: 1.5 [95% CI: 1.04 to 2.2], and passing laws to protect people if they call for medical help for an overdose (OR: 1.7 [95% CI: 1.2 to 2.5].All messages increased public support, but combining factual information and the sympathetic narrative was most effective. Public support for naloxone distribution can be improved through education and sympathetic portrayals of the population who stands to benefit

  19. The effect of the random distribution of electronic components in the output characteristics of the Howland current source

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertemes-Filho, P.; Felipe, A.

    2013-04-01

    When a Howland source is designed, the components are chosen so that the designed source has the desired characteristics. However, the operational amplifier limitations and resistor tolerances causes undesired behaviours. This work proposes to take in account the influence of the random distribution of the commercial resistors in the Howland circuit over the frequency range of 10 Hz to 10 MHz. The probability density function due to small changes over the resistors was calculated by using an analytical model. Results show that both output current and impedance are very sensitive to the resistor tolerances. It is shown that the output impedance is very dependent on the open-loop gain of the Opamp rather than the resistor tolerances, especially at higher frequencies. This might improve the implementations of real current source used in electrical bioimpedance.

  20. Scattering of electromagnetic waves from a half-space of randomly distributed discrete scatterers and polarized backscattering ratio law

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, P. Y.

    1991-01-01

    The effective-medium approximation is applied to investigate scattering from a half-space of randomly and densely distributed discrete scatterers. Starting from vector wave equations, an approximation, called effective-medium Born approximation, a particular way, treating Green's functions, and special coordinates, of which the origin is set at the field point, are used to calculate the bistatic- and back-scatterings. An analytic solution of backscattering with closed form is obtained and it shows a depolarization effect. The theoretical results are in good agreement with the experimental measurements in the cases of snow, multi- and first-year sea-ice. The root product ratio of polarization to depolarization in backscattering is equal to 8; this result constitutes a law about polarized scattering phenomena in the nature.

  1. An inverse method for the identification of a distributed random excitation acting on a vibrating structure. Theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Granger, S.; Perotin, L. [Electricite de France (EDF), 78 - Chatou (France)

    1997-12-31

    Maintaining the PWR components under reliable operating conditions requires a complex design to prevent various damaging processes, including fatigue and wear problems due to flow-induced vibration. In many practical situations, it is difficult, if not impossible, to perform direct measurements or calculations of the external forces acting on vibrating structures. Instead, vibrational responses can often be conveniently measured. This paper presents an inverse method for estimating a distributed random excitation from the measurement of the structural response at a number of discrete points. This paper is devoted to the presentation of the theoretical development. The force identification method is based on a modal model for the structure and a spatial orthonormal decomposition of the excitation field. The estimation of the Fourier coefficients of this orthonormal expansion is presented. As this problem turns out to be ill-posed, a regularization process is introduced. The minimization problem associated to this process is then formulated and its solutions is developed. (author) 17 refs.

  2. Evaluating the Global Precipitation Measurement mission with NOAA/NSSL Multi-Radar Multisensor: current status and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirstetter, P. E.; Petersen, W. A.; Gourley, J. J.; Kummerow, C. D.; Huffman, G. J.; Turk, J.; Tanelli, S.; Maggioni, V.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Hong, Y.; Schwaller, M.

    2016-12-01

    Accurate characterization of uncertainties in precipitation estimates derived from space-borne measurements is critical for many applications including water budget studies or prediction of natural hazards caused by extreme rainfall events. The GPM precipitation Level II (active and passive) and Level III (IMERG) estimates are compared to the high quality and high resolution NEXRAD-based precipitation estimates derived from the NOAA/NSSL's Multi-Radar, Multi-Sensor (MRMS) platform. The MRMS products, after having been adjusted by rain gauges and passing several quality controls and filtering procedures, are 1) accurate with known uncertainty bounds and 2) measured at a resolution below the pixel sizes any GPM estimates, providing great flexibility in matching MRMS samples to grid scales or "footprints". Collectively, these MRMS products provide an independent and consistent reference research framework for directly evaluating post-launch GPM precipitation products across a large number of meteorological regimes as a function of resolution, accuracy and sample size. A comparison framework was developed to examine the consistency of the ground and space-based sensors in term of precipitation detection, typology and quantification. Several aspects of satellite precipitation retrieval are evaluated such as precipitation distributions, separation of systematic biases and random errors, influence of precipitation sub-pixel variability and comparison between satellite products. At the Level II precipitation features are introduced to analyze satellite estimates under various precipitation processes. Prognostic analysis directly provides feedback to algorithm developers on how to improve the satellite estimates. Comparison with TRMM products serves as a benchmark to evaluate GPM precipitation estimates. A the Level III the contribution of Level II is explicitly characterized and a rigorous characterization is performed to migrate across scales fully understanding the

  3. Non Random Distribution of DMD Deletion Breakpoints and Implication of Double Strand Breaks Repair and Replication Error Repair Mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marey, Isabelle; Ben Yaou, Rabah; Deburgrave, Nathalie; Vasson, Aurélie; Nectoux, Juliette; Leturcq, France; Eymard, Bruno; Laforet, Pascal; Behin, Anthony; Stojkovic, Tanya; Mayer, Michèle; Tiffreau, Vincent; Desguerre, Isabelle; Boyer, François Constant; Nadaj-Pakleza, Aleksandra; Ferrer, Xavier; Wahbi, Karim; Becane, Henri-Marc; Claustres, Mireille; Chelly, Jamel; Cossee, Mireille

    2016-05-27

    Dystrophinopathies are mostly caused by copy number variations, especially deletions, in the dystrophin gene (DMD). Despite the large size of the gene, deletions do not occur randomly but mainly in two hot spots, the main one involving exons 45 to 55. The underlying mechanisms are complex and implicate two main mechanisms: Non-homologous end joining (NHEJ) and micro-homology mediated replication-dependent recombination (MMRDR). Our goals were to assess the distribution of intronic breakpoints (BPs) in the genomic sequence of the main hot spot of deletions within DMD gene and to search for specific sequences at or near to BPs that might promote BP occurrence or be associated with DNA break repair. Using comparative genomic hybridization microarray, 57 deletions within the intron 44 to 55 region were mapped. Moreover, 21 junction fragments were sequenced to search for specific sequences. Non-randomly distributed BPs were found in introns 44, 47, 48, 49 and 53 and 50% of BPs clustered within genomic regions of less than 700bp. Repeated elements (REs), known to promote gene rearrangement via several mechanisms, were present in the vicinity of 90% of clustered BPs and less frequently (72%) close to scattered BPs, illustrating the important role of such elements in the occurrence of DMD deletions. Palindromic and TTTAAA sequences, which also promote DNA instability, were identified at fragment junctions in 20% and 5% of cases, respectively. Micro-homologies (76%) and insertions or deletions of small sequences were frequently found at BP junctions. Our results illustrate, in a large series of patients, the important role of RE and other genomic features in DNA breaks, and the involvement of different mechanisms in DMD gene deletions: Mainly replication error repair mechanisms, but also NHEJ and potentially aberrant firing of replication origins. A combination of these mechanisms may also be possible.

  4. Modelled Precipitation Over Greenland

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set includes the annual total precipitation from 1985 to 1999 and monthly total precipitation from January 1985 to December 1999. The data is derived from...

  5. Generation of a stochastic precipitation model for the tropical climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Jing Lin; Abd Aziz, Samsuzana; Huang, Yuk Feng; Wayayok, Aimrun; Rowshon, MK

    2017-06-01

    A tropical country like Malaysia is characterized by intense localized precipitation with temperatures remaining relatively constant throughout the year. A stochastic modeling of precipitation in the flood-prone Kelantan River Basin is particularly challenging due to the high intermittency of precipitation events of the northeast monsoons. There is an urgent need to have long series of precipitation in modeling the hydrological responses. A single-site stochastic precipitation model that includes precipitation occurrence and an intensity model was developed, calibrated, and validated for the Kelantan River Basin. The simulation process was carried out separately for each station without considering the spatial correlation of precipitation. The Markov chains up to the fifth-order and six distributions were considered. The daily precipitation data of 17 rainfall stations for the study period of 1954-2013 were selected. The results suggested that second- and third-order Markov chains were suitable for simulating monthly and yearly precipitation occurrences, respectively. The fifth-order Markov chain resulted in overestimation of precipitation occurrences. For the mean, distribution, and standard deviation of precipitation amounts, the exponential, gamma, log-normal, skew normal, mixed exponential, and generalized Pareto distributions performed superiorly. However, for the extremes of precipitation, the exponential and log-normal distributions were better while the skew normal and generalized Pareto distributions tend to show underestimations. The log-normal distribution was chosen as the best distribution to simulate precipitation amounts. Overall, the stochastic precipitation model developed is considered a convenient tool to simulate the characteristics of precipitation in the Kelantan River Basin.

  6. High-power ultralong-wavelength Tm-doped silica fiber laser cladding-pumped with a random distributed feedback fiber laser

    OpenAIRE

    Xiaoxi Jin; Xueyuan Du; Xiong Wang; Pu Zhou; Hanwei Zhang; Xiaolin Wang; Zejin Liu

    2016-01-01

    We demonstrated a high-power ultralong-wavelength Tm-doped silica fiber laser operating at 2153?nm with the output power exceeding 18?W and the slope efficiency of 25.5%. A random distributed feedback fiber laser with the center wavelength of 1173?nm was employed as pump source of Tm-doped fiber laser for the first time. No amplified spontaneous emissions or parasitic oscillations were observed when the maximum output power reached, which indicates that employing 1173?nm random distributed fe...

  7. Exact distribution of a pattern in a set of random sequences generated by a Markov source: applications to biological data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Regad Leslie

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In bioinformatics it is common to search for a pattern of interest in a potentially large set of rather short sequences (upstream gene regions, proteins, exons, etc.. Although many methodological approaches allow practitioners to compute the distribution of a pattern count in a random sequence generated by a Markov source, no specific developments have taken into account the counting of occurrences in a set of independent sequences. We aim to address this problem by deriving efficient approaches and algorithms to perform these computations both for low and high complexity patterns in the framework of homogeneous or heterogeneous Markov models. Results The latest advances in the field allowed us to use a technique of optimal Markov chain embedding based on deterministic finite automata to introduce three innovative algorithms. Algorithm 1 is the only one able to deal with heterogeneous models. It also permits to avoid any product of convolution of the pattern distribution in individual sequences. When working with homogeneous models, Algorithm 2 yields a dramatic reduction in the complexity by taking advantage of previous computations to obtain moment generating functions efficiently. In the particular case of low or moderate complexity patterns, Algorithm 3 exploits power computation and binary decomposition to further reduce the time complexity to a logarithmic scale. All these algorithms and their relative interest in comparison with existing ones were then tested and discussed on a toy-example and three biological data sets: structural patterns in protein loop structures, PROSITE signatures in a bacterial proteome, and transcription factors in upstream gene regions. On these data sets, we also compared our exact approaches to the tempting approximation that consists in concatenating the sequences in the data set into a single sequence. Conclusions Our algorithms prove to be effective and able to handle real data sets with

  8. Exact distribution of a pattern in a set of random sequences generated by a Markov source: applications to biological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Background In bioinformatics it is common to search for a pattern of interest in a potentially large set of rather short sequences (upstream gene regions, proteins, exons, etc.). Although many methodological approaches allow practitioners to compute the distribution of a pattern count in a random sequence generated by a Markov source, no specific developments have taken into account the counting of occurrences in a set of independent sequences. We aim to address this problem by deriving efficient approaches and algorithms to perform these computations both for low and high complexity patterns in the framework of homogeneous or heterogeneous Markov models. Results The latest advances in the field allowed us to use a technique of optimal Markov chain embedding based on deterministic finite automata to introduce three innovative algorithms. Algorithm 1 is the only one able to deal with heterogeneous models. It also permits to avoid any product of convolution of the pattern distribution in individual sequences. When working with homogeneous models, Algorithm 2 yields a dramatic reduction in the complexity by taking advantage of previous computations to obtain moment generating functions efficiently. In the particular case of low or moderate complexity patterns, Algorithm 3 exploits power computation and binary decomposition to further reduce the time complexity to a logarithmic scale. All these algorithms and their relative interest in comparison with existing ones were then tested and discussed on a toy-example and three biological data sets: structural patterns in protein loop structures, PROSITE signatures in a bacterial proteome, and transcription factors in upstream gene regions. On these data sets, we also compared our exact approaches to the tempting approximation that consists in concatenating the sequences in the data set into a single sequence. Conclusions Our algorithms prove to be effective and able to handle real data sets with multiple sequences, as well

  9. Preprocessing of 18F-DMFP-PET Data Based on Hidden Markov Random Fields and the Gaussian Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fermín Segovia

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available 18F-DMFP-PET is an emerging neuroimaging modality used to diagnose Parkinson's disease (PD that allows us to examine postsynaptic dopamine D2/3 receptors. Like other neuroimaging modalities used for PD diagnosis, most of the total intensity of 18F-DMFP-PET images is concentrated in the striatum. However, other regions can also be useful for diagnostic purposes. An appropriate delimitation of the regions of interest contained in 18F-DMFP-PET data is crucial to improve the automatic diagnosis of PD. In this manuscript we propose a novel methodology to preprocess 18F-DMFP-PET data that improves the accuracy of computer aided diagnosis systems for PD. First, the data were segmented using an algorithm based on Hidden Markov Random Field. As a result, each neuroimage was divided into 4 maps according to the intensity and the neighborhood of the voxels. The maps were then individually normalized so that the shape of their histograms could be modeled by a Gaussian distribution with equal parameters for all the neuroimages. This approach was evaluated using a dataset with neuroimaging data from 87 parkinsonian patients. After these preprocessing steps, a Support Vector Machine classifier was used to separate idiopathic and non-idiopathic PD. Data preprocessed by the proposed method provided higher accuracy results than the ones preprocessed with previous approaches.

  10. The evolution of proteins from random amino acid sequences: II. Evidence from the statistical distributions of the lengths of modern protein sequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, S H

    1994-04-01

    This paper continues an examination of the hypothesis that modern proteins evolved from random heteropeptide sequences. In support of the hypothesis, White and Jacobs (1993, J Mol Evol 36:79-95) have shown that any sequence chosen randomly from a large collection of nonhomologous proteins has a 90% or better chance of having a lengthwise distribution of amino acids that is indistinguishable from the random expectation regardless of amino acid type. The goal of the present study was to investigate the possibility that the random-origin hypothesis could explain the lengths of modern protein sequences without invoking specific mechanisms such as gene duplication or exon splicing. The sets of sequences examined were taken from the 1989 PIR database and consisted of 1,792 "super-family" proteins selected to have little sequence identity, 623 E. coli sequences, and 398 human sequences. The length distributions of the proteins could be described with high significance by either of two closely related probability density functions: The gamma distribution with parameter 2 or the distribution for the sum of two exponential random independent variables. A simple theory for the distributions was developed which assumes that (1) protoprotein sequences had exponentially distributed random independent lengths, (2) the length dependence of protein stability determined which of these protoproteins could fold into compact primitive proteins and thereby attain the potential for biochemical activity, (3) the useful protein sequences were preserved by the primitive genome, and (4) the resulting distribution of sequence lengths is reflected by modern proteins. The theory successfully predicts the two observed distributions which can be distinguished by the functional form of the dependence of protein stability on length. The theory leads to three interesting conclusions. First, it predicts that a tetra-nucleotide was the signal for primitive translation termination. This prediction is

  11. Distribution of peak expiratory flow variability by age, gender and smoking habits in a random population sample aged 20-70 yrs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boezen, H M; Schouten, J. P.; Postma, D S; Rijcken, B

    1994-01-01

    Peak expiratory flow (PEF) variability can be considered as an index of bronchial lability. Population studies on PEF variability are few. The purpose of the current paper is to describe the distribution of PEF variability in a random population sample of adults with a wide age range (20-70 yrs),

  12. Manual vs. integrated automatic load-distributing band CPR with equal survival after out of hospital cardiac arrest. The randomized CIRC trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wik, L.; Olsen, J.A.; Persse, D.; Sterz, F.; Lozano Jr, M.; Brouwer, M.A.; Westfall, M.; Souders, C.M.; Malzer, R.; Grunsven, P.M. van; Travis, D.T.; Whitehead, A.; Herken, U.R.; Lerner, E.B.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To compare integrated automated load distributing band CPR (iA-CPR) with high-quality manual CPR (M-CPR) to determine equivalence, superiority, or inferiority in survival to hospital discharge. METHODS: Between March 5, 2009 and January 11, 2011 a randomized, unblinded, controlled group

  13. Evaluating effectiveness of down-sampling for stratified designs and unbalanced prevalence in Random Forest models of tree species distributions in Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizabeth A. Freeman; Gretchen G. Moisen; Tracy S. Frescino

    2012-01-01

    Random Forests is frequently used to model species distributions over large geographic areas. Complications arise when data used to train the models have been collected in stratified designs that involve different sampling intensity per stratum. The modeling process is further complicated if some of the target species are relatively rare on the landscape leading to an...

  14. Characterization of geometrical random uncertainty distribution for a group of patients in radiotherapy; Caracterizacion de la distribucion de incertidumbres geometricas aleatorias para un grupo de pacientes en radioterapia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munoz Montplet, C.; Jurado Bruggeman, D.

    2010-07-01

    Geometrical random uncertainty in radiotherapy is usually characterized by a unique value in each group of patients. We propose a novel approach based on a statistically accurate characterization of the uncertainty distribution, thus reducing the risk of obtaining potentially unsafe results in CT V-Pt margins or in the selection of correction protocols.

  15. A Comparison of Random Normal Scores Test under the F and Chi-Square Distributions to the 2x2x2 ANOVA Test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawilowsky, Shlomo

    1985-01-01

    The Random Normal Scores Test (RNST) has been suggested as a powerful alternative to the use of the parametric analysis of variance (ANOVA) test when the underlying population is non-normally distributed. The major support for this suggestion rests on asymptotic theory. An empirical analysis of the RNST performed under the F and Chi-square…

  16. Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jun; Pei, Ying; Zhang, Yanwei; Ge, Quansheng

    2017-04-01

    This study was conducted using daily precipitation records gathered at 37 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2010. We used the extreme value theory model, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), statistical distribution function to fit outputs of precipitation extremes with different return periods to estimate risks of precipitation extremes and diagnose aridity-humidity environmental variation and corresponding spatial patterns in northern Xinjiang. Spatiotemporal patterns of daily maximum precipitation showed that aridity-humidity conditions of northern Xinjiang could be well represented by the return periods of the precipitation data. Indices of daily maximum precipitation were effective in the prediction of floods in the study area. By analyzing future projections of daily maximum precipitation (2, 5, 10, 30, 50, and 100 years), we conclude that the flood risk will gradually increase in northern Xinjiang. GEV extreme value modeling yielded the best results, proving to be extremely valuable. Through example analysis for extreme precipitation models, the GEV statistical model was superior in terms of favorable analog extreme precipitation. The GPD model calculation results reflect annual precipitation. For most of the estimated sites' 2 and 5-year T for precipitation levels, GPD results were slightly greater than GEV results. The study found that extreme precipitation reaching a certain limit value level will cause a flood disaster. Therefore, predicting future extreme precipitation may aid warnings of flood disaster. A suitable policy concerning effective water resource management is thus urgently required.

  17. Influence of a Mediterranean Dietary Pattern on Body Fat Distribution: Results of the PREDIMED-Canarias Intervention Randomized Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez-Pérez, Jacqueline; Sánchez-Villegas, Almudena; Díaz-Benítez, Elena María; Ruano-Rodríguez, Cristina; Corella, Dolores; Martínez-González, Míguel Ángel; Estruch, Ramón; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi; Serra-Majem, Lluís

    2016-08-01

    To assess the influence of a Mediterranean dietary pattern (MeDiet) on anthropometric and body composition parameters in one of the centers of the PREDIMED randomized dietary trial. 351 Canarian free-living subjects aged 55 to 80 years, with type 2 diabetes or ≥3 cardiovascular risk factors. Participants were randomly assigned to one of 3 different dietary interventions: MeDiet + extra-virgin olive oil (EVOO), MeDiet + nuts (walnuts, almonds, and hazelnuts), or a control low-fat diet. Total energy intake was ad libitum. Measures included changes in anthropometric measures (weight, body mass index [BMI] and waist circumference [WC]), body fat distribution, energy, and nutrient intake after 1 year. Body composition (percentage of total body fat [%TBF], total fat mass [TFM], free fat mass [FFM], percentage of truncal fat [%TrF], truncal fat mass [TrFM]) and total body water (TBW) were estimated by octapolar electrical impedance analysis. Paired t tests were conducted to assess within-group changes. Analyses of variance (ANOVAs) were used to assess the effect of the dietary intervention on the percentage change in anthropometric variables, body composition, and dietary intake profile. All pairwise comparisons that were statistically significant in ANOVA were subsequently adjusted using the Benjamini-Hochberg test, which penalizes for multiple comparisons. After 1 year of intervention, significant within-group reductions in all anthropometric variables were observed for the MeDiet + EVOO and the control group. The MeDiet + nuts group exhibited a significant reduction in WC and TBW. The control group showed a significant increase in %TBF and a reduction in TBW. The control group showed a significant increase in the percentage of total body fat and a reduction in TBW. However, we did not find any between-group significant difference in anthropometric or body composition changes. Mediterranean diets enriched with EVOO or specific mixed nuts (walnuts, almonds, hazelnuts

  18. Global Precipitation Measurement Poster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azarbarzin, Art

    2010-01-01

    This poster presents an overview of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) constellation of satellites which are designed to measure the Earth's precipitation. It includes the schedule of launches for the various satellites in the constellation, and the coverage of the constellation, It also reviews the mission capabilities, and the mission science objectives.

  19. Psyllium supplementation in adolescents improves fat distribution & lipid profile: a randomized, participant-blinded, placebo-controlled, crossover trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Bock, Martin; Derraik, José G B; Brennan, Christine M; Biggs, Janene B; Smith, Greg C; Cameron-Smith, David; Wall, Clare R; Cutfield, Wayne S

    2012-01-01

    We aimed to assess the effects of psyllium supplementation on insulin sensitivity and other parameters of the metabolic syndrome in an at risk adolescent population. This study encompassed a participant-blinded, randomized, placebo-controlled, crossover trial. Subjects were 47 healthy adolescent males aged 15-16 years, recruited from secondary schools in lower socio-economic areas with high rates of obesity. Participants received 6 g/day of psyllium or placebo for 6 weeks, with a two-week washout before crossing over. Fasting lipid profiles, ambulatory blood pressure, auxological data, body composition, activity levels, and three-day food records were collected at baseline and after each 6-week intervention. Insulin sensitivity was measured by the Matsuda method using glucose and insulin values from an oral glucose tolerance test. 45 subjects completed the study, and compliance was very high: 87% of participants took >80% of prescribed capsules. At baseline, 44% of subjects were overweight or obese. 28% had decreased insulin sensitivity, but none had impaired glucose tolerance. Fibre supplementation led to a 4% reduction in android fat to gynoid fat ratio (p = 0.019), as well as a 0.12 mmol/l (6%) reduction in LDL cholesterol (p = 0.042). No associated adverse events were recorded. Dietary supplementation with 6 g/day of psyllium over 6 weeks improves fat distribution and lipid profile (parameters of the metabolic syndrome) in an at risk population of adolescent males. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12609000888268.

  20. Psyllium supplementation in adolescents improves fat distribution & lipid profile: a randomized, participant-blinded, placebo-controlled, crossover trial.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin de Bock

    Full Text Available AIMS: We aimed to assess the effects of psyllium supplementation on insulin sensitivity and other parameters of the metabolic syndrome in an at risk adolescent population. METHODS: This study encompassed a participant-blinded, randomized, placebo-controlled, crossover trial. Subjects were 47 healthy adolescent males aged 15-16 years, recruited from secondary schools in lower socio-economic areas with high rates of obesity. Participants received 6 g/day of psyllium or placebo for 6 weeks, with a two-week washout before crossing over. Fasting lipid profiles, ambulatory blood pressure, auxological data, body composition, activity levels, and three-day food records were collected at baseline and after each 6-week intervention. Insulin sensitivity was measured by the Matsuda method using glucose and insulin values from an oral glucose tolerance test. RESULTS: 45 subjects completed the study, and compliance was very high: 87% of participants took >80% of prescribed capsules. At baseline, 44% of subjects were overweight or obese. 28% had decreased insulin sensitivity, but none had impaired glucose tolerance. Fibre supplementation led to a 4% reduction in android fat to gynoid fat ratio (p = 0.019, as well as a 0.12 mmol/l (6% reduction in LDL cholesterol (p = 0.042. No associated adverse events were recorded. CONCLUSIONS: Dietary supplementation with 6 g/day of psyllium over 6 weeks improves fat distribution and lipid profile (parameters of the metabolic syndrome in an at risk population of adolescent males. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12609000888268.

  1. Coordinating a multi-retailer decentralized distribution system with random demand based on buyback and compensation contracts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyu Ren

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to set up the coordinating mechanism for a decentralized distribution system consisting of a manufacturer and multiple independent retailers by means of contracts. It is in the two-stage supply chain system that all retailers sell an identical product made by the manufacturer and determine their order quantities which directly affect the expected profit of the supply chain with random demand. Design/methodology/approach: First comparison of the optimal order quantities in the centralized and decentralized system shows that the supply chain needs coordination. Then the coordination model is given based on buyback cost and compensation benefit. Finally the coordination mechanism is set up in which the manufacturer as the leader uses a buyback policy to incentive these retailers and the retailers pay profit returns to compensate the manufacturer. Findings: The results of a numerical example show that the perfect supply chain coordination and the flexible allocation of the profit can be achieved in the multi-retailer supply chain by the buyback and compensation contracts. Research limitations: The results based on assumptions might not completely hold in practice and the paper only focuses on studying a single product in two-stage supply chain. Practical implications: The coordination mechanism is applicable to a realistic supply chain under a private information setting and the research results is the foundation of further developing the coordination mechanism for a realistic multi-stage supply chain system with more products. Originality/value: This paper focused on studying the coordination mechanism for a decentralized multi-retailer supply chain by the joint application of the buyback and compensation contracts. Furthermore the perfect supply chain coordination and the flexible allocation of the profit are achieved.

  2. Evaluation of precipitation trends from high-resolution satellite precipitation products over Mainland China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Fengrui; Gao, Yongqi

    2018-01-01

    Many studies have reported the excellent ability of high-resolution satellite precipitation products (0.25° or finer) to capture the spatial distribution of precipitation. However, it is not known whether the precipitation trends derived from them are reliable. For the first time, we have evaluated the annual and seasonal precipitation trends from two typical sources of high-resolution satellite-gauge products, TRMM 3B43 and PERSIANN-CDR, using rain gauge observations over China, and they were also compared with those from gauge-only products (0.25° and 0.5° precipitation products, hereafter called CN25 and CN50). The evaluation focused mainly on the magnitude, significance, sign, and relative order of the precipitation trends, and was conducted at gridded and regional scales. The following results were obtained: (1) at the gridded scale, neither satellite-gauge products precisely measure the magnitude of precipitation trends but they do reproduce their sign and relative order; regarding capturing the significance of trends, they exhibit relatively acceptable performance only over regions with a sufficient amount of significant precipitation trends; (2) at the regional scale, both satellite-gauge products generally provide reliable precipitation trends, although they do not reproduce the magnitude of trends in winter precipitation; and (3) overall, CN50 and TRMM 3B43 outperform others in reproducing all four aspects of the precipitation trends. Compared with CN25, PERSIANN-CDR performs better in determining the magnitude of precipitation trends but marginally worse in reproducing their sign and relative order; moreover, both of them are at a level in capturing the significance of precipitation trends.

  3. Research on the Relationship of ENSO and the Frequency of Extreme Precipitation Events in China

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Wei; Zhai, Panmao; Cai, Jinhui

    2017-01-01

    Based on a daily precipitation observation dataset of 743 stations in China from 1951–2004, the Γ distribution function is used to calculate the probability distribution of daily precipitation and to define extreme precipitation events. Based on this, the relationship of ENSO and the frequency of extreme precipitation events is studied. Results reveal that ENSO events have impact on extreme precipitation events, with different magnitudes at different regions and seasons. In general, during wi...

  4. Gumbel Weibull distribution function for Sahel precipitation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We computed the parameters using four computations methods such as: method of moments (MOM), maximum likelihood method (MLM), method of least squares (MLS) and probability weighted moments (PWM). To estimate the best method, firstly we used several good fit tests like: Kolmogorov-Smirnov (Ks), Chi-square, ...

  5. Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission: NASA Precipitation Processing System (PPS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocker, Erich Franz

    2008-01-01

    NASA is contributing the precipitation measurement data system PPS to support the GPM mission. PPS will distribute all GPM data products including NASA s GMI data products freely and quickly. PPS is implementing no system mechanisms for restricting access to GPM data. PPS is implementing no system mechanisms for charging for GPM data products. PPS will provide a number of geographical and parameter subsetting features available to its users. The first implementation of PPS (called PPS--) will assume processing of TRMM data effective 1 June 2008. TRMM realtime data will be available via PPS- to all users requesting access

  6. Critical side channel effects in random bit generation with multiple semiconductor lasers in a polarization-based quantum key distribution system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Heasin; Choi, Byung-Seok; Choe, Joong-Seon; Kim, Kap-Joong; Kim, Jong-Hoi; Youn, Chun Ju

    2017-08-21

    Most polarization-based BB84 quantum key distribution (QKD) systems utilize multiple lasers to generate one of four polarization quantum states randomly. However, random bit generation with multiple lasers can potentially open critical side channels that significantly endangers the security of QKD systems. In this paper, we show unnoticed side channels of temporal disparity and intensity fluctuation, which possibly exist in the operation of multiple semiconductor laser diodes. Experimental results show that the side channels can enormously degrade security performance of QKD systems. An important system issue for the improvement of quantum bit error rate (QBER) related with laser driving condition is further addressed with experimental results.

  7. Probabilistic Precipitation Estimation with a Satellite Product

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nir Y. Krakauer

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Satellite-based precipitation products have been shown to represent precipitation well over Nepal at monthly resolution, compared to ground-based stations. Here, we extend our analysis to the daily and subdaily timescales, which are relevant for mapping the hazards caused by storms as well as drought. We compared the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA 3B42RT product with individual stations and with the gridded APHRODITE product to evaluate its ability to retrieve different precipitation intensities. We find that 3B42RT, which is freely available in near real time, has reasonable correspondence with ground-based precipitation products on a daily timescale; rank correlation coefficients approach 0.6, almost as high as the retrospectively calibrated TMPA 3B42 product. We also find that higher-quality ground and satellite precipitation observations improve the correspondence between the two on the daily timescale, suggesting opportunities for improvement in satellite-based monitoring technology. Correlation of 3B42RT and 3B42 with station observations is lower on subdaily timescales, although the mean diurnal cycle of precipitation is roughly correct. We develop a probabilistic precipitation monitoring methodology that uses previous observations (climatology as well as 3B42RT as input to generate daily precipitation accumulation probability distributions at each 0.25° x 0.25° grid cell in Nepal and surrounding areas. We quantify the information gain associated with using 3B42RT in the probabilistic model instead of relying only on climatology and show that the quantitative precipitation estimates produced by this model are well calibrated compared to APHRODITE.

  8. Random functions and turbulence

    CERN Document Server

    Panchev, S

    1971-01-01

    International Series of Monographs in Natural Philosophy, Volume 32: Random Functions and Turbulence focuses on the use of random functions as mathematical methods. The manuscript first offers information on the elements of the theory of random functions. Topics include determination of statistical moments by characteristic functions; functional transformations of random variables; multidimensional random variables with spherical symmetry; and random variables and distribution functions. The book then discusses random processes and random fields, including stationarity and ergodicity of random

  9. Precipitation Climatology on Titan-like Exomoons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokano, Tetsuya

    2015-06-01

    The availability of liquid water on the surface on Earth's continents in part relies on the precipitation of water. This implies that the habitability of exomoons has to consider not only the surface temperature and atmospheric pressure for the presence of liquid water, but also the global precipitation climatology. This study explores the sensitivity of the precipitation climatology of Titan-like exomoons to these moons' orbital configuration using a global climate model. The precipitation rate primarily depends on latitude and is sensitive to the planet's obliquity and the moon's rotation rate. On slowly rotating moons the precipitation shifts to higher latitudes as obliquity is increased, whereas on quickly rotating moons the latitudinal distribution does not strongly depend on obliquity. Stellar eclipse can cause a longitudinal variation in the mean surface temperature and surface pressure between the subplanetary and antiplanetary side if the planet's obliquity and the moon's orbital distance are small. In this particular condition the antiplanetary side generally receives more precipitation than the subplanetary side. However, precipitation on exomoons with dense atmospheres generally occurs at any longitude in contrast to tidally locked exoplanets.

  10. WPA Precipitation Tabulations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hourly precipitation data tabulated under the Work Projects Administration (WPA), a New Deal program created to reduce unemployment during the Great Depression....

  11. Is extreme precipitation changing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papalexiou, Simon Michael

    2015-04-01

    For most of the scientists climate change is a fact. Climate change implies changes not only on the behavior of the temperature but also on other climatic variables like the precipitation. The question raised in this study is whether or not the annual daily maximum precipitation has changed. In order to evaluate if this question can be answered, several thousands of precipitation records are analyzed from all over the globe. Initially the annual daily maxima time series are carefully formed and sequentially all possible trends are estimated in a moving window framework and for several interannual periods, e.g., from 10 years to 100 years. The aim is to estimate the difference between the percentage of increasing and decreasing trends in the annual daily maximum precipitation and assess if this difference indicates any specific pattern.

  12. Storage Gage Precipitation Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A storage gage is a precipitation gage that requires reading and maintenance only monthly or seasonal intervals. This library includes reports from such gages,...

  13. Identifying external influences on global precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marvel, K.; Bonfils, C.

    2013-11-11

    Changes in global (ocean and land) precipitation are among the most important and least well-understood consequences of climate change. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are thought to affect the zonal-mean distribution of precipitation through two basic mechanisms. First, increasing temperatures will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle (“thermodynamic” changes). Second, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns will lead to poleward displacement of the storm tracks and subtropical dry zones and to a widening of the tropical belt (“dynamic” changes). We demonstrate that both these changes are occurring simultaneously in global precipitation, that this behavior cannot be explained by internal variability alone, and that external influences are responsible for the observed precipitation changes. Whereas existing model experiments are not of sufficient length to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic forcing terms at the 95% confidence level, we present evidence that the observed trends result from human activities.

  14. Sequence correction of random coil chemical shifts: correlation between neighbor correction factors and changes in the Ramachandran distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærgaard, Magnus; Poulsen, Flemming Martin

    2011-01-01

    . The contributions from the neighboring residues are typically removed by using neighbor correction factors determined based on each residue's effect on glycine chemical shifts. Due to its unusual conformational freedom, glycine may be particularly unrepresentative for the remaining residue types. In this study, we......Random coil chemical shifts are necessary for secondary chemical shift analysis, which is the main NMR method for identification of secondary structure in proteins. One of the largest challenges in the determination of random coil chemical shifts is accounting for the effect of neighboring residues...... use random coil peptides containing glutamine instead of glycine to determine the random coil chemical shifts and the neighbor correction factors. The resulting correction factors correlate to changes in the populations of the major wells in the Ramachandran plot, which demonstrates that changes...

  15. Solute mixing regulates heterogeneity of mineral precipitation in porous media: Effect of Solute Mixing on Precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cil, Mehmet B.; Xie, Minwei; Packman, Aaron I.; Buscarnera, Giuseppe (NWU); (HKUST-- China)

    2017-07-04

    Synchrotron X-ray microtomography was used to track the spatiotemporal evolution of mineral precipitation and the consequent alteration of the pore structure. Column experiments were conducted by injecting CaCl2 and NaHCO3 solutions into granular porous media either as a premixed supersaturated solution (external mixing) or as separate solutions that mixed within the specimen (internal mixing). The two mixing modes produced distinct mineral growth patterns. While internal mixing promoted transverse heterogeneity with precipitation at the mixing zone, external mixing favored relatively homogeneous precipitation along the flow direction. The impact of precipitation on pore water flow and permeability was assessed via 3-D flow simulations, which indicated anisotropic permeability evolution for both mixing modes. Under both mixing modes, precipitation decreased the median pore size and increased the skewness of the pore size distribution. Such similar pore-scale evolution patterns suggest that the clogging of individual pores depends primarily on local supersaturation state and pore geometry.

  16. Changing precipitation extremes in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Besselaar, E. J. M.; Klein Tank, A. M. G.; van der Schrier, G.

    2010-09-01

    A growing number of studies indicate trends in precipitation extremes over Europe during recent decades. These results are generally based on descriptive indices of extremes which occur on average once (or several times) each year (or season). An example is the maximum one-day precipitation amount per year. Extreme value theory complements the descriptive indices, in order to evaluate the intensity and frequency of more rare events. Trends in more rare extremes are difficult to detect, because per definition only few events exist in the observational series. Although single extreme events cannot be simply and directly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, as there is always a finite chance that the event in question might have occurred naturally, the odds may have shifted to make some of them more likely than in an unchanging climate (IPCC, 2007). In this study we focus on climate extremes defined as rare events within the statistical reference distribution of rainfall that is monitored daily at a particular place. We examine the daily precipitation series from the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D) project. Comparisons will be made between the trends in modest extremes detected using the descriptive indices and the trends in more rare extremes determined by fitting an extreme value distribution to the data in consecutive 20-yr periods of the record. The trends in multi-year return levels are determined for groups of stations in several subregions of Europe. Because the typical record length is about 50 yr, we will assess the trends in events that occur on average up to once in 50 yr.

  17. Extreme daily precipitation: the case of Serbia in 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tošić, Ivana; Unkašević, Miroslava; Putniković, Suzana

    2017-05-01

    The extreme daily precipitation in Serbia was examined at 16 stations during the period 1961-2014. Two synoptic situations in May and September of 2014 were analysed, when extreme precipitation was recorded in western and eastern Serbia, respectively. The synoptic situation from 14 to 16 May 2014 remained nearly stationary over the western and central Serbia for the entire period. On 15 May 2014, the daily rainfall broke previous historical records in Belgrade (109.8 mm), Valjevo (108.2 mm) and Loznica (110 mm). Precipitation exceeded 200 mm in 72 h, producing the most catastrophic floods in the recent history of Serbia. In Negotin (eastern Serbia), daily precipitation of 161.3 mm was registered on 16 September 2014, which was the maximum value recorded during the period 1961-2014. The daily maximum in 2014 was registered at 6 out of 16 stations. The total annual precipitation for 2014 was the highest for the period 1961-2014 at almost all stations in Serbia. A non-significant positive trend was found for all precipitation indices: annual daily maximum precipitation, the total precipitation in consecutive 3 and 5 days, the total annual precipitation, and number of days with at least 10 and 20 mm of precipitation. The generalised extreme value distribution was fitted to the annual daily maximum precipitation. The estimated 100-year return levels were 123.4 and 147.4 mm for the annual daily maximum precipitation in Belgrade and Negotin, respectively.

  18. Modelling probabilities of heavy precipitation by regional approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaal, L.; Kysely, J.

    2009-09-01

    in climate model outputs. It efficiently reduces (random) variations in the estimates of parameters of the extreme value distributions in individual gridboxes that result from large spatial variability of heavy precipitation, and represents a straightforward tool for ‘weighting’ data from neighbouring gridboxes within the estimation procedure. The study is supported by the Grant Agency of AS CR under project B300420801.

  19. Simulating Pre-Asymptotic, Non-Fickian Transport Although Doing Simple Random Walks - Supported By Empirical Pore-Scale Velocity Distributions and Memory Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Most, S.; Jia, N.; Bijeljic, B.; Nowak, W.

    2016-12-01

    Pre-asymptotic characteristics are almost ubiquitous when analyzing solute transport processes in porous media. These pre-asymptotic aspects are caused by spatial coherence in the velocity field and by its heterogeneity. For the Lagrangian perspective of particle displacements, the causes of pre-asymptotic, non-Fickian transport are skewed velocity distribution, statistical dependencies between subsequent increments of particle positions (memory) and dependence between the x, y and z-components of particle increments. Valid simulation frameworks should account for these factors. We propose a particle tracking random walk (PTRW) simulation technique that can use empirical pore-space velocity distributions as input, enforces memory between subsequent random walk steps, and considers cross dependence. Thus, it is able to simulate pre-asymptotic non-Fickian transport phenomena. Our PTRW framework contains an advection/dispersion term plus a diffusion term. The advection/dispersion term produces time-series of particle increments from the velocity CDFs. These time series are equipped with memory by enforcing that the CDF values of subsequent velocities change only slightly. The latter is achieved through a random walk on the axis of CDF values between 0 and 1. The virtual diffusion coefficient for that random walk is our only fitting parameter. Cross-dependence can be enforced by constraining the random walk to certain combinations of CDF values between the three velocity components in x, y and z. We will show that this modelling framework is capable of simulating non-Fickian transport by comparison with a pore-scale transport simulation and we analyze the approach to asymptotic behavior.

  20. Similarities and Improvements of GPM Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR upon TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR in Global Precipitation Rate Estimation, Type Classification and Vertical Profiling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyu Gao

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Spaceborne precipitation radars are powerful tools used to acquire adequate and high-quality precipitation estimates with high spatial resolution for a variety of applications in hydrological research. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM mission, which deployed the first spaceborne Ka- and Ku-dual frequency radar (DPR, was launched in February 2014 as the upgraded successor of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM. This study matches the swath data of TRMM PR and GPM DPR Level 2 products during their overlapping periods at the global scale to investigate their similarities and DPR’s improvements concerning precipitation amount estimation and type classification of GPM DPR over TRMM PR. Results show that PR and DPR agree very well with each other in the global distribution of precipitation, while DPR improves the detectability of precipitation events significantly, particularly for light precipitation. The occurrences of total precipitation and the light precipitation (rain rates < 1 mm/h detected by GPM DPR are ~1.7 and ~2.53 times more than that of PR. With regard to type classification, the dual-frequency (Ka/Ku and single frequency (Ku methods performed similarly. In both inner (the central 25 beams and outer swaths (1–12 beams and 38–49 beams of DPR, the results are consistent. GPM DPR improves precipitation type classification remarkably, reducing the misclassification of clouds and noise signals as precipitation type “other” from 10.14% of TRMM PR to 0.5%. Generally, GPM DPR exhibits the same type division for around 82.89% (71.02% of stratiform (convective precipitation events recognized by TRMM PR. With regard to the freezing level height and bright band (BB height, both radars correspond with each other very well, contributing to the consistency in stratiform precipitation classification. Both heights show clear latitudinal dependence. Results in this study shall contribute to future development of spaceborne

  1. A possible constraint on regional precipitation intensity changes under global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gutowski, William J.; Kozak, K. A.; Arritt, R. W.

    2007-01-01

    Changes in daily precipitation versus intensity under a global warming scenario in two regional climate simulations of the United States show a well-recognized feature of more intense precipitation. More important, by resolving the precipitation intensity spectrum, the changes show a relatively...... precipitation rates that contribute relatively more to the total and rates that contribute relatively less. The behavior is roughly the same as the results of the numerical models and is insensitive to characteristics of the baseline climate, such as average precipitation, frequency of rain days, and the shape...... parameter of the precipitation's gamma distribution. Changes in the normalized precipitation distribution give a more consistent constraint on how precipitation intensity may change when climate changes than do changes in the normormalized distribution. The analysis does not apply to extreme precipitation...

  2. Comparison of regression and kriging techniques for mapping the average annual precipitation of Turkey.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bostan, P.A.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.; Akyurek, S.Z.

    2012-01-01

    Accurate mapping of the spatial distribution of annual precipitation is important for many applications in hydrology, climatology, agronomy, ecology and other environmental sciences. In this study, we compared five different statistical methods to predict spatially the average annual precipitation

  3. Training symmetry of weight distribution after stroke: a randomized controlled pilot study comparing task-related reach, Bobath and feedback training approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudie, M H; Winzeler-Mercay, U; Radwan, S; Lee, L

    2002-09-01

    To determine (1) the most effective of three treatment approaches to retrain seated weight distribution long-term after stroke and (2) whether improvements could be generalized to weight distribution in standing. Inpatient rehabilitation unit. Forty asymmetrical acute stroke subjects were randomly allocated to one of four groups in this pilot study. Changes in weight distribution were compared between the 10 subjects of each of three treatment groups (task-specific reach, Bobath, or Balance Performance Monitor [BPM] feedback training) and a no specific treatment control group. One week of measurement only was followed by two weeks of daily training sessions with the treatment to which the subject was randomly allocated. Measurements were performed using the BPM daily before treatment sessions, two weeks after cessation of treatment and 12 weeks post study. Weight distribution was calculated in terms of mean balance (percentage of total body weight) or the mean of 300 balance points over a 30-s data run. In the short term, the Bobath approach was the most effective treatment for retraining sitting symmetry after stroke (p = 0.004). Training with the BPM and no training were also significant (p = 0.038 and p = 0.035 respectively) and task-specific reach training failed to reach significance (p = 0.26). At 12 weeks post study 83% of the BPM training group, 38% of the task-specific reach group, 29% of the Bobath group and 0% of the untrained group were found to be distributing their weight to both sides. Some generalization of symmetry training in sitting to standing was noted in the BPM training group which appeared to persist long term. Results should be treated with caution due to the small group sizes. However, these preliminary findings suggest that it might be possible to restore postural symmetry in sitting in the early stages of rehabilitation with therapy that focuses on creating an awareness of body position.

  4. A parametric daily precipitation model application in Botswana ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A parametric precipitation model is developed for generation of daily rainfall time series based on historic data. The precipitation model is a composite model of Markov-chain (MC) and probability distribution (PD). Thirty nine rain gauge stations in Botswana that have daily rainfall record length in the range of 11 to 83 years ...

  5. Precipitation Reconstruction (PREC)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The PREC data set is an analysis of monthly precipitation constructed on a 2.5(o)lat/lon grid over the global for the period from 1948 to the present. The land...

  6. Parallelization of a spatial random field characterization process using the Method of Anchored Distributions and the HTCondor high throughput computing system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osorio-Murillo, C. A.; Over, M. W.; Frystacky, H.; Ames, D. P.; Rubin, Y.

    2013-12-01

    A new software application called MAD# has been coupled with the HTCondor high throughput computing system to aid scientists and educators with the characterization of spatial random fields and enable understanding the spatial distribution of parameters used in hydrogeologic and related modeling. MAD# is an open source desktop software application used to characterize spatial random fields using direct and indirect information through Bayesian inverse modeling technique called the Method of Anchored Distributions (MAD). MAD relates indirect information with a target spatial random field via a forward simulation model. MAD# executes inverse process running the forward model multiple times to transfer information from indirect information to the target variable. MAD# uses two parallelization profiles according to computational resources available: one computer with multiple cores and multiple computers - multiple cores through HTCondor. HTCondor is a system that manages a cluster of desktop computers for submits serial or parallel jobs using scheduling policies, resources monitoring, job queuing mechanism. This poster will show how MAD# reduces the time execution of the characterization of random fields using these two parallel approaches in different case studies. A test of the approach was conducted using 1D problem with 400 cells to characterize saturated conductivity, residual water content, and shape parameters of the Mualem-van Genuchten model in four materials via the HYDRUS model. The number of simulations evaluated in the inversion was 10 million. Using the one computer approach (eight cores) were evaluated 100,000 simulations in 12 hours (10 million - 1200 hours approximately). In the evaluation on HTCondor, 32 desktop computers (132 cores) were used, with a processing time of 60 hours non-continuous in five days. HTCondor reduced the processing time for uncertainty characterization by a factor of 20 (1200 hours reduced to 60 hours.)

  7. A Bayesian technique for conditioning radar precipitation estimates to rain-gauge measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Todini

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper introduces a new technique based upon the use of block-Kriging and of Kalman filtering to combine, optimally in a Bayesian sense, areal precipitation fields estimated from meteorological radar to point measurements of precipitation such as are provided by a network of rain-gauges. The theoretical development is followed by a numerical example, in which an error field with a large bias and a noise to signal ratio of 30% is added to a known random field, to demonstrate the potentiality of the proposed algorithm. The results analysed on a sample of 1000 realisations, show that the final estimates are totally unbiased and the noise variance reduced substantially. Moreover, a case study on the upper Reno river in Italy demonstrates the improvements in rainfall spatial distribution obtainable by means of the proposed radar conditioning technique. Keywords: Rainfall, meteorological radar, Bayesian technique, block-Kriging, Kalman filtering

  8. Why choose Random Forest to predict rare species distribution with few samples in large undersampled areas? Three Asian crane species models provide supporting evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunrong Mi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs have become an essential tool in ecology, biogeography, evolution and, more recently, in conservation biology. How to generalize species distributions in large undersampled areas, especially with few samples, is a fundamental issue of SDMs. In order to explore this issue, we used the best available presence records for the Hooded Crane (Grus monacha, n = 33, White-naped Crane (Grus vipio, n = 40, and Black-necked Crane (Grus nigricollis, n = 75 in China as three case studies, employing four powerful and commonly used machine learning algorithms to map the breeding distributions of the three species: TreeNet (Stochastic Gradient Boosting, Boosted Regression Tree Model, Random Forest, CART (Classification and Regression Tree and Maxent (Maximum Entropy Models. In addition, we developed an ensemble forecast by averaging predicted probability of the above four models results. Commonly used model performance metrics (Area under ROC (AUC and true skill statistic (TSS were employed to evaluate model accuracy. The latest satellite tracking data and compiled literature data were used as two independent testing datasets to confront model predictions. We found Random Forest demonstrated the best performance for the most assessment method, provided a better model fit to the testing data, and achieved better species range maps for each crane species in undersampled areas. Random Forest has been generally available for more than 20 years and has been known to perform extremely well in ecological predictions. However, while increasingly on the rise, its potential is still widely underused in conservation, (spatial ecological applications and for inference. Our results show that it informs ecological and biogeographical theories as well as being suitable for conservation applications, specifically when the study area is undersampled. This method helps to save model-selection time and effort, and allows robust and rapid

  9. High prevalence of multidrug resistance and random distribution of mobile genetic elements among uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC) of the four major phylogenetic groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rijavec, Matija; Starcic Erjavec, Marjanca; Ambrozic Avgustin, Jerneja; Reissbrodt, Rolf; Fruth, Angelika; Krizan-Hergouth, Veronika; Zgur-Bertok, Darja

    2006-08-01

    One hundred and ten UTI Escherichia coli strains, from Ljubljana, Slovenia, were analyzed for antibiotic resistances, mobile DNA elements, serotype, and phylogenetic origin. A high prevalence of drug resistance and multidrug resistance was found. Twenty-six percent of the isolates harbored a class 1 integron, while a majority of the strains (56%) harbored rep sequences characteristic of F-like plasmids. int as well as rep sequences were found to be distributed in a random manner among strains of the four major phylogenetic groups indicating that all groups have a similar tendency to acquire and maintain mobile genetic elements frequently associated with resistance determinants.

  10. A test for Improvement of high resolution Quantitative Precipitation Estimation for localized heavy precipitation events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jung-Hoon; Roh, Joon-Woo; Park, Jeong-Gyun

    2017-04-01

    Accurate estimation of precipitation is one of the most difficult and significant tasks in the area of weather diagnostic and forecasting. In the Korean Peninsula, heavy precipitations are caused by various physical mechanisms, which are affected by shortwave trough, quasi-stationary moisture convergence zone among varying air masses, and a direct/indirect effect of tropical cyclone. In addition to, various geographical and topographical elements make production of temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation is very complicated. Especially, localized heavy rainfall events in South Korea generally arise from mesoscale convective systems embedded in these synoptic scale disturbances. In weather radar data with high temporal and spatial resolution, accurate estimation of rain rate from radar reflectivity data is too difficult. Z-R relationship (Marshal and Palmer 1948) have adapted representatively. In addition to, several methods such as support vector machine (SVM), neural network, Fuzzy logic, Kriging were utilized in order to improve the accuracy of rain rate. These methods show the different quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and the performances of accuracy are different for heavy precipitation cases. In this study, in order to improve the accuracy of QPE for localized heavy precipitation, ensemble method for Z-R relationship and various techniques was tested. This QPE ensemble method was developed by a concept based on utilizing each advantage of precipitation calibration methods. The ensemble members were produced for a combination of different Z-R coefficient and calibration method.

  11. Random or selective neuroanatomical connectivity. Study of the distribution of fibers over two populations of identified interneurons in cerebral cortex

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vinkenoog, M.; van den Oever, M.C.; Uylings, H.B.M.; Wouterlood, F.G.

    2005-01-01

    We present a neuroanatomical tracing method in a stereological approach to study the proportional distribution of fibers of a particular projection over two chemically different populations of neurons. The fiber projection from the presubiculum to the medial division of the entorhinal cortex of the

  12. Clustering, Randomness, and Regularity: Spatial Distributions and Human Performance on the Traveling Salesperson Problem and Minimum Spanning Tree Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dry, Matthew J.; Preiss, Kym; Wagemans, Johan

    2012-01-01

    We investigated human performance on the Euclidean Traveling Salesperson Problem (TSP) and Euclidean Minimum Spanning Tree Problem (MST-P) in regards to a factor that has previously received little attention within the literature: the spatial distributions of TSP and MST-P stimuli. First, we describe a method for quantifying the relative degree of…

  13. Chemistry of United States precipitation. Final report on the national precipitation sampling network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lodge, J.P. Jr.; Pate, J.B.; Basbergill, W.; Swanson, G.S.; Hill, K.C.; Lorange, E.; Lazrus, A.L.

    1968-01-01

    Atmospheric precipitation washes large quantities of particulate and gaseous materials from air, and thus provides a means of studying contamination of the atmosphere. The relationships between the concentration of constituents in air and their concentrations in precipitation are not known with quantitative certainty. However, it is believed that the concentration patterns of contaminants in precipitation reflect their patterns in air. Moreover, though analysis of precipitation water does not reveal absolute values for air contamination, it does provide a means of monitoring changes in contamination with time. The purposes of the project are: (1) to determine mean benchmark values of contaminants throughout the country; (2) to detect possible trends in these values over long periods of time; (3) to observe seasonal fluctuations and geographical distributions which may reveal the sources of these atmospheric contaminants. 48 references, 27 figures, 5 tables.

  14. PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS OF HEAVY RAINFALLS IN AICHI PREFECTURE USING 10-MINUTE PRECIPITATION DATA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sho, Kenjiro; Taniguchi, Kenji; Tominaga, Akihiro

    Precipitation analysis for heavy rainfalls in Tokai district on September 11-12, 2000 and August 28-29, 2008 was performed based on 10-minute precipitation data. Rainfall distribution analyses showed that a rain band in the direction of the prevailing wind at middle levels slowly moved eastward on the western Aichi Prefecture throughout the both events. The rain band consisted of aligned heavy-rain cells of about 5-10 km diameter that traveled successively along the rain band. The band lay 10-20 km toward the cold sector of a meso-scale convergence line. Moreover, an analysis of 10-minute precipitation data for the past 22 years revealed that the areas including the northern Chita Peninsula and Nagoya City have a maximum frequency of heavy rain of short duration despite having the lowest annual total precipitation in Aichi Prefecture. Thus, these areas seem to have topographic characters favoring concentrated heavy rainfall only under specific meteorological conditions.

  15. Correlating GRACE with Standardized Precipitation Indices and Precipitation Gauges for the High Plains Aquifer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, K. A.; Clancy, K.

    2016-12-01

    The NASA and German Aerospace Center Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) detects monthly changes in the gravity of the earth assumed to be water storage using the distance between two satellites, GRACE A and GRACE B, as a phase change. We will use level 3 GRACE Tellus data from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center (PO.DAAC). The data have a resolution of 9 km2 and are available for 2002 to 2015. We examine GRACE data for the High Plains aquifer (Texas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, New Mexico, Colorado and South Dakota) and compare changes to monthly averaged precipitation gauges, standardized precipitation indices for one, three, six, and twelve-months. We hypothesize that GRACE data will correlate best with 1) three-month standardized precipitation indices; 2) regions with natural land cover; 3) and in years where precipitation is at or above average.

  16. Development of sampling downscaling: a case for wintertime precipitation in Hokkaido

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuno, Ryusuke; Inatsu, Masaru

    2014-07-01

    This study has developed sampling downscaling (SmDS), in which dynamical downscaling (DDS) is executed for a few of period selected from a long-term integration by general circulation model based on an observed statistical relationship between large-scale climate and regional-scale precipitation. SmDS expectedly produces climatology and frequency distribution of precipitation over a nested region with reducing computational cost, if a global-scale climate pattern mostly controls regional-scale weather statistics. Here SmDS was attempted for wintertime precipitation over Hokkaido, Japan, because a linkage between snowfall and sea-level pressure patterns has been known by Japanese synopticians and it can be detected by singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis on wintertime inter-annual variability during the period from 1980/1981 to 2009/2010 for precipitation over Hokkaido and moisture flux convergence around there. DDS for the full period over the same domain was also performed for comparison with SmDS. SmDS selected two winters from the top and two winters from the bottom of the projection onto the first SVD mode. It was found that, comparing with the full DDS, SmDS indeed provided unbiased statistics for average but exaggerated extreme statistics such as heavy rainfall frequency. It was also shown that the sampling in the SmDS method was much more effective than the random sampling.

  17. The relationship between multilevel models and non-parametric multilevel mixture models: Discrete approximation of intraclass correlation, random coefficient distributions, and residual heteroscedasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rights, Jason D; Sterba, Sonya K

    2016-11-01

    Multilevel data structures are common in the social sciences. Often, such nested data are analysed with multilevel models (MLMs) in which heterogeneity between clusters is modelled by continuously distributed random intercepts and/or slopes. Alternatively, the non-parametric multilevel regression mixture model (NPMM) can accommodate the same nested data structures through discrete latent class variation. The purpose of this article is to delineate analytic relationships between NPMM and MLM parameters that are useful for understanding the indirect interpretation of the NPMM as a non-parametric approximation of the MLM, with relaxed distributional assumptions. We define how seven standard and non-standard MLM specifications can be indirectly approximated by particular NPMM specifications. We provide formulas showing how the NPMM can serve as an approximation of the MLM in terms of intraclass correlation, random coefficient means and (co)variances, heteroscedasticity of residuals at level 1, and heteroscedasticity of residuals at level 2. Further, we discuss how these relationships can be useful in practice. The specific relationships are illustrated with simulated graphical demonstrations, and direct and indirect interpretations of NPMM classes are contrasted. We provide an R function to aid in implementing and visualizing an indirect interpretation of NPMM classes. An empirical example is presented and future directions are discussed. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  18. Sexual selection has minimal impact on effective population sizes in species with high rates of random offspring mortality: An empirical demonstration using fitness distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pischedda, Alison; Friberg, Urban; Stewart, Andrew D; Miller, Paige M; Rice, William R

    2015-10-01

    The effective population size (N(e)) is a fundamental parameter in population genetics that influences the rate of loss of genetic diversity. Sexual selection has the potential to reduce N(e) by causing the sex-specific distributions of individuals that successfully reproduce to diverge. To empirically estimate the effect of sexual selection on N(e), we obtained fitness distributions for males and females from an outbred, laboratory-adapted population of Drosophila melanogaster. We observed strong sexual selection in this population (the variance in male reproductive success was ∼14 times higher than that for females), but found that sexual selection had only a modest effect on N(e), which was 75% of the census size. This occurs because the substantial random offspring mortality in this population diminishes the effects of sexual selection on N(e), a result that necessarily applies to other high fecundity species. The inclusion of this random offspring mortality creates a scaling effect that reduces the variance/mean ratios for male and female reproductive success and causes them to converge. Our results demonstrate that measuring reproductive success without considering offspring mortality can underestimate Ne and overestimate the genetic consequences of sexual selection. Similarly, comparing genetic diversity among different genomic components may fail to detect strong sexual selection. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  19. High-power ultralong-wavelength Tm-doped silica fiber laser cladding-pumped with a random distributed feedback fiber laser.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xiaoxi; Du, Xueyuan; Wang, Xiong; Zhou, Pu; Zhang, Hanwei; Wang, Xiaolin; Liu, Zejin

    2016-07-15

    We demonstrated a high-power ultralong-wavelength Tm-doped silica fiber laser operating at 2153 nm with the output power exceeding 18 W and the slope efficiency of 25.5%. A random distributed feedback fiber laser with the center wavelength of 1173 nm was employed as pump source of Tm-doped fiber laser for the first time. No amplified spontaneous emissions or parasitic oscillations were observed when the maximum output power reached, which indicates that employing 1173 nm random distributed feedback fiber laser as pump laser is a feasible and promising scheme to achieve high-power emission of long-wavelength Tm-doped fiber laser. The output power of this Tm-doped fiber laser could be further improved by optimizing the length of active fiber, reflectivity of FBGs, increasing optical efficiency of pump laser and using better temperature management. We also compared the operation of 2153 nm Tm-doped fiber lasers pumped with 793 nm laser diodes, and the maximum output powers were limited to ~2 W by strong amplified spontaneous emission and parasitic oscillation in the range of 1900-2000 nm.

  20. Atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whan, Kirien; Haarsma, Rein; Sillmann, Jana

    2017-04-01

    'Atmospheric rivers' are long, narrow regions of high water vapour content that are responsible for the horizontal transport of moisture to higher latitudes. They are associated with the majority of extreme precipitation events in Norway throughout the observational record. These extreme precipitation events can be associated with flooding that has large impacts on society, such as the October 2014 event in Flåm. We examined changes in extreme precipitation between the current and future climates in the coupled global climate model, EC-EARTH, using high-resolution simulations ( 25 km) that can resolve extratropical storms and atmospheric rivers. We use the r-largest method (r=3) to fit stationary (no covariates) and non-stationary (with an index of atmospheric rivers as a covariate) generalised extreme value distributions to the block maxima of annual precipitation. The value of a regional 'index flood' type approach is explored and future changes in the largest precipitation events of the year that are associated with atmospheric rivers are presented.

  1. On the complex conductivity signatures of calcite precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Yuxin; Hubbard, Susan; Williams, Kenneth Hurst; Ajo-Franklin, Jonathan

    2009-11-01

    Calcite is a mineral phase that frequently precipitates during subsurface remediation or geotechnical engineering processes. This precipitation can lead to changes in the overall behavior of the system, such as flow alternation and soil strengthening. Because induced calcite precipitation is typically quite variable in space and time, monitoring its distribution in the subsurface is a challenge. In this research, we conducted a laboratory column experiment to investigate the potential of complex conductivity as a mean to remotely monitor calcite precipitation. Calcite precipitation was induced in a glass bead (3 mm) packed column through abiotic mixing of CaCl{sub 2} and Na{sub 2}CO{sub 3} solutions. The experiment continued for 12 days with a constant precipitation rate of {approx}0.6 milimole/d. Visual observations and scanning electron microscopy imaging revealed two distinct phases of precipitation: an earlier phase dominated by well distributed, discrete precipitates and a later phase characterized by localized precipitate aggregation and associated pore clogging. Complex conductivity measurements exhibited polarization signals that were characteristic of both phases of calcite precipitation, with the precipitation volume and crystal size controlling the overall polarization magnitude and relaxation time constant. We attribute the observed responses to polarization at the electrical double layer surrounding calcite crystals. Our experiment illustrates the potential of electrical methods for characterizing the distribution and aggregation state of nonconductive minerals like calcite. Advancing our ability to quantify geochemical transformations using such noninvasive methods is expected to facilitate our understanding of complex processes associated with natural subsurface systems as well as processes induced through engineered treatments (such as environmental remediation and carbon sequestration).

  2. Hourly Precipitation Data (HPD) Publication

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hourly Precipitation Data (HPD) Publication is archived and available from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). This publication contains hourly precipitation...

  3. Universal randomness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dotsenko, Viktor S [Landau Institute for Theoretical Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2011-03-31

    In the last two decades, it has been established that a single universal probability distribution function, known as the Tracy-Widom (TW) distribution, in many cases provides a macroscopic-level description of the statistical properties of microscopically different systems, including both purely mathematical ones, such as increasing subsequences in random permutations, and quite physical ones, such as directed polymers in random media or polynuclear crystal growth. In the first part of this review, we use a number of models to examine this phenomenon at a simple qualitative level and then consider the exact solution for one-dimensional directed polymers in a random environment, showing that free energy fluctuations in such a system are described by the universal TW distribution. The second part provides detailed appendix material containing the necessary mathematical background for the first part. (reviews of topical problems)

  4. Village-Randomized Clinical Trial of Home Distribution of Zinc for Treatment of Childhood Diarrhea in Rural Western Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feikin, Daniel R.; Bigogo, Godfrey; Audi, Allan; Pals, Sherri L.; Aol, George; Mbakaya, Charles; Williamson, John; Breiman, Robert F.; Larson, Charles P.

    2014-01-01

    Background Zinc treatment shortens diarrhea episodes and can prevent future episodes. In rural Africa, most children with diarrhea are not brought to health facilities. In a village-randomized trial in rural Kenya, we assessed if zinc treatment might have a community-level preventive effect on diarrhea incidence if available at home versus only at health facilities. Methods We randomized 16 Kenyan villages (1,903 eligible children) to receive a 10-day course of zinc and two oral rehydration solution (ORS) sachets every two months at home and 17 villages (2,241 eligible children) to receive ORS at home, but zinc at the health–facility only. Children’s caretakers were educated in zinc/ORS use by village workers, both unblinded to intervention arm. We evaluated whether incidence of diarrhea and acute lower respiratory illness (ALRI) reported at biweekly home visits and presenting to clinic were lower in zinc villages, using poisson regression adjusting for baseline disease rates, distance to clinic, and children’s age. Results There were no differences between village groups in diarrhea incidence either reported at the home or presenting to clinic. In zinc villages (1,440 children analyzed), 61.2% of diarrheal episodes were treated with zinc, compared to 5.4% in comparison villages (1,584 children analyzed, p<0.0001). There were no differences in ORS use between zinc (59.6%) and comparison villages (58.8%). Among children with fever or cough without diarrhea, zinc use was low (<0.5%). There was a lower incidence of reported ALRI in zinc villages (adjusted RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.46–0.99), but not presenting at clinic. Conclusions In this study, home zinc use to treat diarrhea did not decrease disease rates in the community. However, with proper training, availability of zinc at home could lead to more episodes of pediatric diarrhea being treated with zinc in parts of rural Africa where healthcare utilization is low. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00530829

  5. Village-randomized clinical trial of home distribution of zinc for treatment of childhood diarrhea in rural Western kenya.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel R Feikin

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Zinc treatment shortens diarrhea episodes and can prevent future episodes. In rural Africa, most children with diarrhea are not brought to health facilities. In a village-randomized trial in rural Kenya, we assessed if zinc treatment might have a community-level preventive effect on diarrhea incidence if available at home versus only at health facilities. METHODS: We randomized 16 Kenyan villages (1,903 eligible children to receive a 10-day course of zinc and two oral rehydration solution (ORS sachets every two months at home and 17 villages (2,241 eligible children to receive ORS at home, but zinc at the health-facility only. Children's caretakers were educated in zinc/ORS use by village workers, both unblinded to intervention arm. We evaluated whether incidence of diarrhea and acute lower respiratory illness (ALRI reported at biweekly home visits and presenting to clinic were lower in zinc villages, using poisson regression adjusting for baseline disease rates, distance to clinic, and children's age. RESULTS: There were no differences between village groups in diarrhea incidence either reported at the home or presenting to clinic. In zinc villages (1,440 children analyzed, 61.2% of diarrheal episodes were treated with zinc, compared to 5.4% in comparison villages (1,584 children analyzed, p<0.0001. There were no differences in ORS use between zinc (59.6% and comparison villages (58.8%. Among children with fever or cough without diarrhea, zinc use was low (<0.5%. There was a lower incidence of reported ALRI in zinc villages (adjusted RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.46-0.99, but not presenting at clinic. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, home zinc use to treat diarrhea did not decrease disease rates in the community. However, with proper training, availability of zinc at home could lead to more episodes of pediatric diarrhea being treated with zinc in parts of rural Africa where healthcare utilization is low. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT

  6. Extreme Precipitation and High-Impact Landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschbaum, Dalia; Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Peters-Lidard, Christa

    2012-01-01

    It is well known that extreme or prolonged rainfall is the dominant trigger of landslides; however, there remain large uncertainties in characterizing the distribution of these hazards and meteorological triggers at the global scale. Researchers have evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme rainfall and landslides at local and regional scale primarily using in situ data, yet few studies have mapped rainfall-triggered landslide distribution globally due to the dearth of landslide data and consistent precipitation information. This research uses a newly developed Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) and a 13-year satellite-based precipitation record from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data. For the first time, these two unique products provide the foundation to quantitatively evaluate the co-occurence of precipitation and rainfall-triggered landslides globally. The GLC, available from 2007 to the present, contains information on reported rainfall-triggered landslide events around the world using online media reports, disaster databases, etc. When evaluating this database, we observed that 2010 had a large number of high-impact landslide events relative to previous years. This study considers how variations in extreme and prolonged satellite-based rainfall are related to the distribution of landslides over the same time scales for three active landslide areas: Central America, the Himalayan Arc, and central-eastern China. Several test statistics confirm that TRMM rainfall generally scales with the observed increase in landslide reports and fatal events for 2010 and previous years over each region. These findings suggest that the co-occurrence of satellite precipitation and landslide reports may serve as a valuable indicator for characterizing the spatiotemporal distribution of landslide-prone areas in order to establish a global rainfall-triggered landslide climatology. This research also considers the sources for this extreme rainfall, citing

  7. Catalyzed precipitation in Al-Cu-Si

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitlin, D.; Morris, J. W.; Radmilovic, V.

    2000-11-01

    The work reported here concerns the effect of Si on the precipitation of θ' phase (metastable Al2Cu) during the isothermal aging of Al-2Cu-1 Si (wt pct). The binary alloys Al-2Cu and Al-1 Si were studied for comparison. Only two precipitate phases were detected: essentially pure Si in Al-1 Si and Al-2Cu-1 Si, and θ' (metastable Al2Cu) in Al-2Cu and Al-2Cu-1Si. On aging the ternary alloy at 225 °C, Si precipitates first and catalyzes the θ' phase. The precipitates in the ternary alloy are smaller, are more densely distributed, have lower aspect ratios, and coarsen more slowly than those in the binary Al-2Cu aged at the same temperature. While the shapes of individual θ' precipitates in binary Al-2Cu are strongly affected by the kinetic problem of nucleating growth ledges, which produces a significant scatter in the aspect ratio for samples of given thickness, the overall evolution of particle shape with size follows the predictions of the Khachaturyan-Hairapetyan (KH) thermoelastic theory, which reduces to κ= L/d ∞ √ L at large sizes. The KH theory provides an estimate for the interfacial tension of the broad Al- θ' interface of 85 to 96 mJ/m2, which is near the values for other low-energy interfaces in Al, such as the twin boundary energy (100 mJ/m2) and the antiphase boundary energy in δ' Al3Li (70 mJ/m2). Si and θ' precipitates in Al-2Cu-1 Si have a strong elastic interaction because of their compensating strain fields. This elastic interaction promotes the nucleation of θ' precipitates on Si, decreases the expected aspect ratio of θ', and inhibits coarsening. Finally, Si precipitation in ternary Al-2Cu-1 Si differs from that in binary Al-1 Si in that the Si precipitates are coarser, more equiaxed, and more extensively twinned. These changes appear to be effects of Cu, which increases the solubility of Si in Al and adsorbs on the Si-Al interface, promoting twinning by a “step-poisoning” effect at the interface.

  8. Airborne particle monitoring by electrostatic precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, J. C.; Stoneback, I. T.

    1977-01-01

    For qualitative analysis of atmospheric particulates by microscopy, the sampling device should preserve the particles in the state existing at the moment of capture. A collector is described that uses electrostatic precipitation to capture and disperse specimens on various substrates for direct insertion into microscopes. Sampling runs in various atmospheres are described. Micrographs are presented to show particle morphology and distribution on the substrates. Chemical identification by X-ray energy probe and electron diffraction is illustrated.

  9. Selecting Optimal Random Forest Predictive Models: A Case Study on Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Seabed Hardness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jin; Tran, Maggie; Siwabessy, Justy

    2016-01-01

    Spatially continuous predictions of seabed hardness are important baseline environmental information for sustainable management of Australia’s marine jurisdiction. Seabed hardness is often inferred from multibeam backscatter data with unknown accuracy and can be inferred from underwater video footage at limited locations. In this study, we classified the seabed into four classes based on two new seabed hardness classification schemes (i.e., hard90 and hard70). We developed optimal predictive models to predict seabed hardness using random forest (RF) based on the point data of hardness classes and spatially continuous multibeam data. Five feature selection (FS) methods that are variable importance (VI), averaged variable importance (AVI), knowledge informed AVI (KIAVI), Boruta and regularized RF (RRF) were tested based on predictive accuracy. Effects of highly correlated, important and unimportant predictors on the accuracy of RF predictive models were examined. Finally, spatial predictions generated using the most accurate models were visually examined and analysed. This study confirmed that: 1) hard90 and hard70 are effective seabed hardness classification schemes; 2) seabed hardness of four classes can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy; 3) the typical approach used to pre-select predictive variables by excluding highly correlated variables needs to be re-examined; 4) the identification of the important and unimportant predictors provides useful guidelines for further improving predictive models; 5) FS methods select the most accurate predictive model(s) instead of the most parsimonious ones, and AVI and Boruta are recommended for future studies; and 6) RF is an effective modelling method with high predictive accuracy for multi-level categorical data and can be applied to ‘small p and large n’ problems in environmental sciences. Additionally, automated computational programs for AVI need to be developed to increase its computational efficiency and

  10. Selecting Optimal Random Forest Predictive Models: A Case Study on Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Seabed Hardness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Li

    Full Text Available Spatially continuous predictions of seabed hardness are important baseline environmental information for sustainable management of Australia's marine jurisdiction. Seabed hardness is often inferred from multibeam backscatter data with unknown accuracy and can be inferred from underwater video footage at limited locations. In this study, we classified the seabed into four classes based on two new seabed hardness classification schemes (i.e., hard90 and hard70. We developed optimal predictive models to predict seabed hardness using random forest (RF based on the point data of hardness classes and spatially continuous multibeam data. Five feature selection (FS methods that are variable importance (VI, averaged variable importance (AVI, knowledge informed AVI (KIAVI, Boruta and regularized RF (RRF were tested based on predictive accuracy. Effects of highly correlated, important and unimportant predictors on the accuracy of RF predictive models were examined. Finally, spatial predictions generated using the most accurate models were visually examined and analysed. This study confirmed that: 1 hard90 and hard70 are effective seabed hardness classification schemes; 2 seabed hardness of four classes can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy; 3 the typical approach used to pre-select predictive variables by excluding highly correlated variables needs to be re-examined; 4 the identification of the important and unimportant predictors provides useful guidelines for further improving predictive models; 5 FS methods select the most accurate predictive model(s instead of the most parsimonious ones, and AVI and Boruta are recommended for future studies; and 6 RF is an effective modelling method with high predictive accuracy for multi-level categorical data and can be applied to 'small p and large n' problems in environmental sciences. Additionally, automated computational programs for AVI need to be developed to increase its computational efficiency and

  11. DISSOLUTION OF LANTHANUM FLUORIDE PRECIPITATES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fries, B.A.

    1959-11-10

    A plutonium separatory ore concentration procedure involving the use of a fluoride type of carrier is presented. An improvement is given in the derivation step in the process for plutonium recovery by carrier precipitation of plutonium values from solution with a lanthanum fluoride carrier precipitate and subsequent derivation from the resulting plutonium bearing carrier precipitate of an aqueous acidic plutonium-containing solution. The carrier precipitate is contacted with a concentrated aqueous solution of potassium carbonate to effect dissolution therein of at least a part of the precipitate, including the plutonium values. Any remaining precipitate is separated from the resulting solution and dissolves in an aqueous solution containing at least 20% by weight of potassium carbonate. The reacting solutions are combined, and an alkali metal hydroxide added to a concentration of at least 2N to precipitate lanthanum hydroxide concomitantly carrying plutonium values.

  12. Clinical significance of precipitous labor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Shunji

    2015-03-01

    Precipitous labor is defined as expulsion of the fetus within less than 3 hours of commencement of regular contractions. We retrospectively examined our cases of precipitous labor to identify the clinical significance and perinatal outcomes following precipitous labor in singleton vertex deliveries. A retrospective population-based study was conducted comparing women with singleton precipitous labor and those with labor of normal duration. We examined the clinical characteristics and outcomes by comparing patients with precipitous labor and those with labor of normal duration in 0 and two-parous singleton pregnant women. Using a multivariate analysis, precipitous labor in nulliparous women was independently associated with teenagers (adjusted OR: 1.71, 95% CI: 0.99 - 2.95, P = 0.049), preterm delivery (adjusted OR: 1.77, 95% CI: 1.16 - 2.70, P precipitous labor was associated with hypertensive disorders in singleton vertex deliveries, it was not associated with maternal or neonatal outcomes.

  13. Non-random geographic distribution of patients with cutaneous T-cell lymphoma in the Greater Pittsburgh Area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreau, Jacqueline F; Buchanich, Jeanine M; Geskin, Jacob Z; Akilov, Oleg E; Geskin, Larisa J

    2014-07-15

    Environmental hazards may play a role in the etiology of cutaneous T-cell lymphoma (CTCL). Some studies have found an increased incidence of CTCL among workers in chemical science, transportation, and manufacturing industries, but other studies have not. This discrepancy may be attributable to population migration, complicating accurate assessment of lifetime exposures. The Pittsburgh population has very low migration rates and most CTCL patients seen at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC) Cutaneous Lymphoma Center are life-long local residents. The Greater Pittsburgh Area used to be an industrial hub. There are residential communities positioned within close proximity to inactive industrial sites that continue to contain pollutants. To determine whether CTCL patients' residences cluster within specific Pittsburgh regions, in particular, those with high levels of environmental pollutants. Our study included patients diagnosed with CTCL at the UPMC Cutaneous Lymphoma Center between 2000 and 2012. We mapped the longitudinal and latitudinal coordinates of patients' residences at diagnosis, superfund sites, toxic release inventory sites, particular matter levels, and dermatologists' offices using ArcMap 10.1. We then performed a SaTScan analysis using zip codes to assess for geographic clustering of patients' residences in the Pittsburgh metropolitan statistical area. We assessed for a correlation between case distribution and both environmental hazards sites and dermatologist density in the area. We identified 274 patients with CTCL in the Greater Pittsburgh area. We identified a statistically significant geographic cluster (pPittsburgh and the site of the region's only CTCL clinic. We observed no relationship between the locations of superfund sites, toxic release inventory sites, or particular matter levels and CTCL case distribution. Our findings do not support an association between exposure to environmental toxins and CTCL. CTCL cases clustered in

  14. Application of bimodal distribution to the detection of changes in uranium concentration in drinking water collected by random daytime sampling method from a large water supply zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garboś, Sławomir; Święcicka, Dorota

    2015-11-01

    The random daytime (RDT) sampling method was used for the first time in the assessment of average weekly exposure to uranium through drinking water in a large water supply zone. Data set of uranium concentrations determined in 106 RDT samples collected in three runs from the water supply zone in Wroclaw (Poland), cannot be simply described by normal or log-normal distributions. Therefore, a numerical method designed for the detection and calculation of bimodal distribution was applied. The extracted two distributions containing data from the summer season of 2011 and the winter season of 2012 (nI=72) and from the summer season of 2013 (nII=34) allowed to estimate means of U concentrations in drinking water: 0.947 μg/L and 1.23 μg/L, respectively. As the removal efficiency of uranium during applied treatment process is negligible, the effect of increase in uranium concentration can be explained by higher U concentration in the surface-infiltration water used for the production of drinking water. During the summer season of 2013, heavy rains were observed in Lower Silesia region, causing floods over the territory of the entire region. Fluctuations in uranium concentrations in surface-infiltration water can be attributed to releases of uranium from specific sources - migration from phosphate fertilizers and leaching from mineral deposits. Thus, exposure to uranium through drinking water may increase during extreme rainfall events. The average chronic weekly intakes of uranium through drinking water, estimated on the basis of central values of the extracted normal distributions, accounted for 3.2% and 4.1% of tolerable weekly intake. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Distribution of spectral linear statistics on random matrices beyond the large deviation function—Wigner time delay in multichannel disordered wires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabsch, Aurélien; Texier, Christophe

    2016-11-01

    An invariant ensemble of N × N random matrices can be characterised by a joint distribution for eigenvalues P({λ }1,\\cdots ,{λ }N). The distribution of linear statistics, i.e. of quantities of the form L=(1/N){\\sum }if({λ }i) where f(x) is a given function, appears in many physical problems. In the N\\to ∞ limit, L scales as L˜ {N}η , where the scaling exponent η depends on the ensemble and the function f(x). Its distribution can be written in the form {P}N(s={N}-η L)≃ {A}N,β (s)\\exp \\{-(β {N}2/2){{Φ }}(s)\\}, where β \\in \\{1,2,4\\} is the Dyson index. The Coulomb gas technique naturally provides the large deviation function {{Φ }}(s), which can be efficiently obtained thanks to a ‘thermodynamic identity’ introduced earlier. We conjecture the pre-exponential function {A}N,β (s). We check our conjecture on several well controlled cases within the Laguerre and the Jacobi ensembles. Then we apply our main result to a situation where the large deviation function has no minimum (and L has infinite moments): this arises in the statistical analysis of the Wigner time delay for semi-infinite multichannel disordered wires (Laguerre ensemble). The statistical analysis of the Wigner time delay then crucially depends on the pre-exponential function {A}N,β (s), which ensures the decay of the distribution for large argument.

  16. Using GRACE to constrain precipitation amount over cold mountainous basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrangi, Ali; Gardner, Alex S.; Reager, John T.; Fisher, Joshua B.

    2017-01-01

    Despite the importance for hydrology and climate-change studies, current quantitative knowledge on the amount and distribution of precipitation in mountainous and high-elevation regions is limited due to instrumental and retrieval shortcomings. Here by focusing on two large endorheic basins in High Mountain Asia, we show that satellite gravimetry (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)) can be used to provide an independent estimate of monthly accumulated precipitation using mass balance equation. Results showed that the GRACE-based precipitation estimate has the highest agreement with most of the commonly used precipitation products in summer, but it deviates from them in cold months, when the other products are expected to have larger errors. It was found that most of the products capture about or less than 50% of the total precipitation estimated using GRACE in winter. Overall, Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) showed better agreement with GRACE estimate than other products. Yet on average GRACE showed 30% more annual precipitation than GPCP in the study basins. In basins of appropriate size with an absence of dense ground measurements, as is a typical case in cold mountainous regions, we find GRACE can be a viable alternative to constrain monthly and seasonal precipitation estimates from other remotely sensed precipitation products that show large bias.

  17. Stochastic Cascade Dynamical Downscaling of Precipitation over Complex Terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posadas, A.; Duffaut, L. E.; Jones, C.; Carvalho, L. V.; Carbajal, M.; Heidinger, H.; Quiroz, R.

    2013-12-01

    Global Climate Models (GCMs) suggest that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases will have significant implications for climate at global and regional scales. Less certain is the extent to which meteorological processes at individual sites will be affected. So-called downscaling techniques are used to bridge the spatial and temporal resolution gaps between what climate modelers are currently able to provide and what decision-makers require. Among the most important impacts of regional-scale prediction of climate change is to assess how food production and security will be affected. Regional scale precipitation and temperature simulations are crucial to understand how global warming will affect fresh water storage and the ability to grow agricultural crops. Precipitation and temperature downscaling improve the coarse resolution and poor local representation of global climate models and help decision-makers to assess the likely hydrological impacts of climate change, and it would also help crop modelers to generate more realistic climatic-change scenarios. Thus, a spatial downscaling method was developed based on the multiplicative random cascade disaggregation theory, considering a β-lognormal model describing the rainfall precipitation distribution and using the Mandelbrot-Kahane-Peyriere (MKP) function. In this paper, gridded 15 km resolution rainfall data over a 220 x 220 km section of the Andean Plateau and surroundings, generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), were downscaled to gridded 1 km layers with the Multifractal downscaling technique, complemented by a local heterogeneity filter. The process was tested for daily data over a period of five years (01/01/2001 - 12/31/2005). Specifically, The model parameters were estimated from 5 years of observed daily rainfall data from 18 rain gauges located in the region. A detailed testing of the model was undertaken on the basis of a comparison of the statistical characteristics of the

  18. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Combined Precipitation Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Arkin, Philip; Chang, Alfred; Ferraro, Ralph; Gruber, Arnold; Janowiak, John; McNab, Alan; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo

    1997-01-01

    The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has released the GPCP Version 1 Combined Precipitation Data Set, a global, monthly precipitation dataset covering the period July 1987 through December 1995. The primary product in the dataset is a merged analysis incorporating precipitation estimates from low-orbit-satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit -satellite infrared data, and rain gauge observations. The dataset also contains the individual input fields, a combination of the microwave and infrared satellite estimates, and error estimates for each field. The data are provided on 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg latitude-longitude global grids. Preliminary analyses show general agreement with prior studies of global precipitation and extends prior studies of El Nino-Southern Oscillation precipitation patterns. At the regional scale there are systematic differences with standard climatologies.

  19. Direct data-transformation calculation of Standardised Precipitation Indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crockett, Robin; Holt, Christopher

    2010-05-01

    Standardised Precipitation Indices (SPIs), a form of Drought Index, were first proposed by McKee, Doesken and Kleist in 1993. In using SPIs calculated according to their original specification, we observed that SPI-sets for UK precipitation data in general are negatively skewed and have non-zero means and non-unity standard deviations, i.e. are not standard-normally distributed. We also observed that the deviations of SPIs from the standard normal distribution increase with increasing magnitude, positive or negative. We attribute these observations to the equiprobability mapping between the cumulative Gamma distribution, used to fit the precipitation data, and the cumulative standard normal distribution, from which the SPIs are derived as abscissae. We present a new method for calculating SPIs. This is based on a generalisation of the square-root normal and cube-root normal distributions used elsewhere to model precipitation data. The resulting sets of SPIs are standard-normally distributed, having (very close to) zero skewness, zero mean and unity standard deviations. The resulting root-normal distributions are, in general, also better fits to the data than the Gamma distribution used by McKee et al. For small-magnitude SPIs, these root-normal SPIs are in agreement with those calculated according to McKee et al.'s specification, but that agreement decreases with increasing SPI magnitude, in accordance with our observations of SPI distributions which triggered the research..

  20. Statistical Properties of Global Precipitation in the NCEP GFS Model and TMPA Observations for Data Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lien, Guo-Yuan; Kalnay, Eugenia; Miyoshi, Takemasa; Huffman, George J.

    2016-01-01

    Assimilation of satellite precipitation data into numerical models presents several difficulties, with two of the most important being the non-Gaussian error distributions associated with precipitation, and large model and observation errors. As a result, improving the model forecast beyond a few hours by assimilating precipitation has been found to be difficult. To identify the challenges and propose practical solutions to assimilation of precipitation, statistics are calculated for global precipitation in a low-resolution NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model and the TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). The samples are constructed using the same model with the same forecast period, observation variables, and resolution as in the follow-on GFSTMPA precipitation assimilation experiments presented in the companion paper.The statistical results indicate that the T62 and T126 GFS models generally have positive bias in precipitation compared to the TMPA observations, and that the simulation of the marine stratocumulus precipitation is not realistic in the T62 GFS model. It is necessary to apply to precipitation either the commonly used logarithm transformation or the newly proposed Gaussian transformation to obtain a better relationship between the model and observational precipitation. When the Gaussian transformations are separately applied to the model and observational precipitation, they serve as a bias correction that corrects the amplitude-dependent biases. In addition, using a spatially andor temporally averaged precipitation variable, such as the 6-h accumulated precipitation, should be advantageous for precipitation assimilation.

  1. Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Precipitation in Guizhou Based on TRMM 3B42 Satellite Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jianfeng; Zhang, Fengtai; Cao, Guangjie; Li, Wei; Zhao, Xuemei

    2017-08-01

    Precipitation is an important part of the earth’s climate system. This article makes full use of the advantages of remote sensing images. In this paper, the TRMM 3B42 satellite precipitation from 1998 to 2013 is selected as the data source and Guizhou Province as the research area. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of precipitation in Guizhou Province are studied by linear trend estimation, linear regression analysis and ArcGIS spatial analysis. The conclusion as below: Precipitation shows a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest in Guizhou Province. From the seasonal scale, Precipitation is mainly concentrated in summer and the least precipitation in winter. Over the past 16 years, precipitation in Guizhou Province has shown a fluctuating change. Summer precipitation trend is more obvious. And winter precipitation is not obvious.

  2. ISLSCP II Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Monthly Precipitation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), which is operated by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (National Meteorological Service of Germany), is a...

  3. ISLSCP II Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Monthly Precipitation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), which is operated by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (National Meteorological Service of Germany), is a component of...

  4. Recent changes in precipitation extremes in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina-Eliza CROITORU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Changes in daily extreme precipitations have been identified in many studies conducted at local, regional or global scales. In Romania, only little research on this issue has been done so far. The present study is focused on the analysis of the trends in daily extreme precipitations indices over a period of 53 years (1961-2013. Data sets of daily precipitation recorded in 34 weather stations were analyzed. Among them, three are located in the Carpathian Mountains area and four are located on the Black Sea Coast. The main goal was to find changes in extreme daily precipitation using a set of 13 indices adopted from the core indices developed by ETCCDMI with appropriate modifications to suit to the studied area. The series of the indices as well as their trends were generated using RClimDex software. The trends have been calculated using the linear mean square method. The findings are similar to those obtained at the global and European continental scales and the most noteworthy are: increasing trends dominate for the most of the indices, but only about 25% of them are statistically significant at α=0.05; decreasing trends are more specific to southern area of the country; decreasing trends of  R0.1, CDD and CWD dominate for the great majority of locations; the spatial distribution of the significant slopes in the area is extremely irregular.

  5. Temporal variation of extreme precipitation events in Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Egidijus Rimkus

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Heavy precipitation events in Lithuania for the period 1961-2008 were analysed. The spatial distribution and dynamics of precipitation extremes were investigated. Positive tendencies and in some cases statistically significant trends were determined for the whole of Lithuania. Atmospheric circulation processes were derived using Hess & Brezowski's classification of macrocirculation forms. More than one third of heavy precipitation events (37% were observed when the atmospheric circulation was zonal. The location of the central part of a cyclone (WZ weather condition subtype over Lithuania is the most common synoptic situation (27% during heavy precipitation events. Climatic projections according to outputs of the CCLM model are also presented in this research. The analysis shows that the recurrence of heavy precipitation events in the 21st century will increase significantly (by up to 22% in Lithuania.

  6. Spatial Ensemble Postprocessing of Precipitation Forecasts Using High Resolution Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Moritz N.; Schicker, Irene; Kann, Alexander; Wang, Yong

    2017-04-01

    Ensemble prediction systems are designed to account for errors or uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions, imperfect parameterizations, etc. However, due to sampling errors and underestimation of the model errors, these ensemble forecasts tend to be underdispersive, and to lack both reliability and sharpness. To overcome such limitations, statistical postprocessing methods are commonly applied to these forecasts. In this study, a full-distributional spatial post-processing method is applied to short-range precipitation forecasts over Austria using Standardized Anomaly Model Output Statistics (SAMOS). Following Stauffer et al. (2016), observation and forecast fields are transformed into standardized anomalies by subtracting a site-specific climatological mean and dividing by the climatological standard deviation. Due to the need of fitting only a single regression model for the whole domain, the SAMOS framework provides a computationally inexpensive method to create operationally calibrated probabilistic forecasts for any arbitrary location or for all grid points in the domain simultaneously. Taking advantage of the INCA system (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis), high resolution analyses are used for the computation of the observed climatology and for model training. The INCA system operationally combines station measurements and remote sensing data into real-time objective analysis fields at 1 km-horizontal resolution and 1 h-temporal resolution. The precipitation forecast used in this study is obtained from a limited area model ensemble prediction system also operated by ZAMG. The so called ALADIN-LAEF provides, by applying a multi-physics approach, a 17-member forecast at a horizontal resolution of 10.9 km and a temporal resolution of 1 hour. The performed SAMOS approach statistically combines the in-house developed high resolution analysis and ensemble prediction system. The station-based validation of 6 hour precipitation sums

  7. Precipitation-Based ENSO Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Robert; Curtis, Scott

    1998-01-01

    In this study gridded observed precipitation data sets are used to construct rainfall-based ENSO indices. The monthly El Nino and La Nina Indices (EI and LI) measure the steepest zonal gradient of precipitation anomalies between the equatorial Pacific and the Maritime Continent. This is accomplished by spatially averaging precipitation anomalies using a spatial boxcar filter, finding the maximum and minimum averages within a Pacific and Maritime Continent domain for each month, and taking differences. EI and LI can be examined separately or combined to produce one ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI). ESPI is well correlated with traditional sea surface temperature and pressure indices, leading Nino 3.4. One advantage precipitation indices have over more conventional indices, is describing the strength and position of the Walker circulation. Examples are given of tracking the impact of ENSO events on the tropical precipitation fields.

  8. Characteristics of precipitation in the rainy season of Koxkar Glacier, Tianshan Mountain, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, C. C.; Yao, S. X.; Han, H. D.; Zhao, Q. D.

    2017-08-01

    Precipitation is widely recognized as the major driving force of hydrologic system, and changes of its pattern could have direct impacts on water resources, especially in mountains. The total precipitation and rain days based on observation were analysed in Koxkar glacier catchment in rainy season during the period of 2009 - 2016. The results have shown that the total precipitation of rainy season fluctuates randomly with no significant trend of increasing or decreasing. The rain days of different precipitation classes differ noticeably, and are inconsistent with the contribution of total precipitation in rainy season. The maximum daily precipitation influences the monthly precipitation. These characteristics of rainy season precipitation display the important factor for the study of glacier changes.

  9. Electrical operation of electrostatic precipitators

    CERN Document Server

    Parker, Ken

    2003-01-01

    The electrostatic precipitator remains on of the most cost effective means of controlling the emission of particulates from most industrial processes. This book will be of interest to both users and suppliers of electrostatic precipitators as well as advanced students on environmental based courses. The author identifies the physical and engineering basis for the development of electrical equipment for electrostatic precipitators and thoroughly explores the technological factors which optimize the efficiency of the precipitator and hence minimize emissions, as well as future developments in th

  10. Precipitation Measurement Missions Data Access

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data products are currently available from 1998 to the present. Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission data...

  11. Measuring precipitation with a geolysimeter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Craig D.; van der Kamp, Garth; Arnold, Lauren; Schmidt, Randy

    2017-10-01

    Using the relationship between measured groundwater pressures in deep observation wells and total surface loading, a geological weighing lysimeter (geolysimeter) has the capability of measuring precipitation event totals independently of conventional precipitation gauge observations. Correlations between groundwater pressure change and event precipitation were observed at a co-located site near Duck Lake, SK, over a multi-year and multi-season period. Correlation coefficients (r2) varied from 0.99 for rainfall to 0.94 for snowfall. The geolysimeter was shown to underestimate rainfall by 7 % while overestimating snowfall by 9 % as compared to the unadjusted gauge precipitation. It is speculated that the underestimation of rainfall is due to unmeasured run-off and evapotranspiration within the response area of the geolysimeter during larger rainfall events, while the overestimation of snow is at least partially due to the systematic undercatch common to most precipitation gauges due to wind. Using recently developed transfer functions from the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Solid Precipitation Intercomparison Experiment (SPICE), bias adjustments were applied to the Alter-shielded, Geonor T-200B precipitation gauge measurements of snowfall to mitigate wind-induced errors. The bias between the gauge and geolysimeter measurements was reduced to 3 %. This suggests that the geolysimeter is capable of accurately measuring solid precipitation and can be used as an independent and representative reference of true precipitation.

  12. Measuring precipitation with a geolysimeter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. D. Smith

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Using the relationship between measured groundwater pressures in deep observation wells and total surface loading, a geological weighing lysimeter (geolysimeter has the capability of measuring precipitation event totals independently of conventional precipitation gauge observations. Correlations between groundwater pressure change and event precipitation were observed at a co-located site near Duck Lake, SK, over a multi-year and multi-season period. Correlation coefficients (r2 varied from 0.99 for rainfall to 0.94 for snowfall. The geolysimeter was shown to underestimate rainfall by 7 % while overestimating snowfall by 9 % as compared to the unadjusted gauge precipitation. It is speculated that the underestimation of rainfall is due to unmeasured run-off and evapotranspiration within the response area of the geolysimeter during larger rainfall events, while the overestimation of snow is at least partially due to the systematic undercatch common to most precipitation gauges due to wind. Using recently developed transfer functions from the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO Solid Precipitation Intercomparison Experiment (SPICE, bias adjustments were applied to the Alter-shielded, Geonor T-200B precipitation gauge measurements of snowfall to mitigate wind-induced errors. The bias between the gauge and geolysimeter measurements was reduced to 3 %. This suggests that the geolysimeter is capable of accurately measuring solid precipitation and can be used as an independent and representative reference of true precipitation.

  13. Trend analysis of precipitation in Jharkhand State, India. Investigating precipitation variability in Jharkhand State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandniha, Surendra Kumar; Meshram, Sarita Gajbhiye; Adamowski, Jan Franklin; Meshram, Chandrashekhar

    2017-10-01

    Jharkhand is one of the eastern states of India which has an agriculture-based economy. Uncertain and erratic distribution of precipitation as well as a lack of state water resources planning is the major limitation to crop growth in the region. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability in precipitation in the state was examined using a monthly precipitation time series of 111 years (1901-2011) from 18 meteorological stations. Autocorrelation and Mann-Kendall/modified Mann-Kendall tests were utilized to detect possible trends, and the Theil and Sen slope estimator test was used to determine the magnitude of change over the entire time series. The most probable change year (change point) was detected using the Pettitt-Mann-Whitney test, and the entire time series was sub-divided into two parts: before and after the change point. Arc-Map 9.3 software was utilized to assess the spatial patterns of the trends over the entire state. Annual precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend in 5 out of 18 stations during the whole period. For annual, monsoon and winter periods of precipitation, the slope test indicated a decreasing trend for all stations during 1901-2011. The highest variability was observed in post-monsoon precipitation (77.87 %) and the lowest variability was observed in the annual series (15.76 %) over the 111 years. An increasing trend in precipitation in the state was found during the period 1901-1949, which was reversed during the subsequent period (1950-2011).

  14. Seizure precipitants (triggering factors) in patients with epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferlisi, Monica; Shorvon, Simon

    2014-04-01

    adult epilepsy clinic population: (a) to identify the frequency of seizure precipitants (triggering factors) and their relative frequency in those with psychiatric disorders, and in those in remission or with active epilepsy, differences in frequency with regard to gender, seizure duration, number of drugs taken; (b) to determine which precipitants patients most commonly report; and (c) to identify differences in the distribution of precipitants among generalized, temporal, and extratemporal epilepsies. Consecutive patients attending a tertiary-care epilepsy clinic were prospectively and an open personal interview to identify and characterize seizure precipitants. Information about the epilepsy and clinical characteristics of patients was collected during the interview and from medical records. Of 104 patients, 97% cited at least one precipitant. Stress, sleep deprivation, and fatigue were the most frequently reported precipitants. Patients with psychological comorbidities reported a greater percentage of seizures with seizure precipitants. Patients with idiopathic generalized epilepsy seemed to be more sensitive to seizures during awakening and sleep deprivation, patients with extratemporal epilepsy reported more frequent seizures during sleep. There were no differences in frequency or type of seizure precipitants with regard to gender, seizure duration or frequency, and the number of antiepileptic drugs taken. The findings may have implications for the better management of epilepsy by increasing a focus on nonpharmacological therapy. The implications of the findings for nosology and causation of epilepsy are also briefly discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Electromagnetic Modeling of the Propagation Characteristics of Satellite Communications Through Composite Precipitation Layers, Part1: Mathematical Formulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H.M. Al-Rizzo

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available A systematic and general formulation of a Propagation Simulation Program (PSP is developed for the coherent field of microwave and millimeter wave carrier signals traversing intermediate layered precipitation media, taking into account the random behavior of particle size, orientation, shape and concentration distributions.  Based on a rigorous solution of the volumetric multiple-scattering integral equations, the formalism offers the capability of treating the potential transmission impairments on satellite-earth links and radar remote sensing generated by composite atmospheric layers of precipitation in conjunction with the finite polarization isolation of dual-polarized transmitting and receiving antennas. A multi-layered formulation is employed which encompasses an ensemble of discrete particles comprising an arbitrary mixture of ice crystals, melting snow and raindrops that may exist simultaneously along satellite-earth communication paths.

  16. GRASP (Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search Procedures) applied to optimization of petroleum products distribution in pipeline networks; GRASP (Greedy Randomized Adaptative Search Procedures) aplicado ao 'scheduling' de redes de distribuicao de petroleo e derivados

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conte, Viviane Cristhyne Bini; Arruda, Lucia Valeria Ramos de; Yamamoto, Lia [Universidade Tecnologica Federal do Parana (UTFPR), Curitiba, PR (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Planning and scheduling of the pipeline network operations aim the most efficient use of the resources resulting in a better performance of the network. A petroleum distribution pipeline network is composed by refineries, sources and/or storage parks, connected by a set of pipelines, which operate the transportation of petroleum and derivatives among adjacent areas. In real scenes, this problem is considered a combinatorial problem, which has difficult solution, which makes necessary methodologies of the resolution that present low computational time. This work aims to get solutions that attempt the demands and minimize the number of batch fragmentations on the sent operations of products for the pipelines in a simplified model of a real network, through by application of the local search metaheuristic GRASP. GRASP does not depend of solutions of previous iterations and works in a random way so it allows the search for the solution in an ampler and diversified search space. GRASP utilization does not demand complex calculation, even the construction stage that requires more computational effort, which provides relative rapidity in the attainment of good solutions. GRASP application on the scheduling of the operations of this network presented feasible solutions in a low computational time. (author)

  17. Seasonal Cycle in German Daily Precipitation Extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madlen Fischer

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany is investigated by fitting statistical models to monthly maxima of daily precipitation sums for 2,865 rain gauges. The basis is a non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV distribution variation of location and scale parameters. The negative log-likelihood serves as the forecast error for a cross validation to select adequate orders of the harmonic functions for each station. For nearly all gauges considered, the seasonal model is more appropriate to estimate return levels on a monthly scale than a stationary GEV used for individual months. The 100-year return-levels show the influence of cyclones in the western, and convective events in the eastern part of Germany. In addition to resolving the seasonality, we use a simulation study to show that annual return levels can be estimated more precisely from a monthly-resolved seasonal model than from a stationary model based on annual maxima.

  18. Resistivity Problems in Electrostatic Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Harry J.

    1974-01-01

    The process of electrostatic precipitation has ever-increasing application in more efficient collection of fine particles from industrial air emissions. This article details a large number of new developments in the field. The emphasis is on high resistivity particles which are a common cause of poor precipitator performance. (LS)

  19. Acid precipitation and forest soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. O. Tamm

    1976-01-01

    Many soil processes and properties may be affected by a change in chemical climate such as that caused by acidification of precipitation. The effect of additions of acid precipitation depends at first on the extent to which this acid is really absorbed by the soil and on the changes in substances with actual or potential acidity leaving the soil. There is for instance...

  20. Precipitation in the Solar System

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntosh, Gordon

    2007-01-01

    As an astronomy instructor, I am always looking for commonly observed Earthly experiences to help my students and me understand and appreciate similar occurrences elsewhere in the solar system. Recently I wrote a short TPT article on frost. This paper is on the related phenomena of precipitation. Precipitation, so common on most of the Earth's…

  1. Poisson distribution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hallin, M.; Piegorsch, W.; El Shaarawi, A.

    2012-01-01

    The random variable X taking values 0,1,2,…,x,… with probabilities pλ(x) = e−λλx/x!, where λ∈R0+ is called a Poisson variable, and its distribution a Poisson distribution, with parameter λ. The Poisson distribution with parameter λ can be obtained as the limit, as n → ∞ and p → 0 in such a way that

  2. Modeling solid-state precipitation

    CERN Document Server

    Nebylov, AlexanderKozeschnik, Ernst

    2012-01-01

    Over recent decades, modeling and simulation of solid-state precipitation has attracted increased attention in academia and industry due to their important contributions in designing properties of advanced structural materials and in increasing productivity and decreasing costs for expensive alloying. In particular, precipitation of second phases is an important means for controlling the mechanical-technological properties of structural materials. However, profound physical modeling of precipitation is not a trivial task. This book introduces you to the classical methods of precipitation modeling and to recently-developed advanced, computationally-efficient techniques. If you're a research professional, academic, or student, you'll learn: nucleation theory, precipitate growth, calculation of interfacial energies. advanced techniques for technologically relevant multicomponent systems and complex thermo-mechanical treatments. numerical approaches using evolution equations and discrete particle size distribu...

  3. Mapping the distributions of C3 and C4 grasses in the mixed-grass prairies of southwest Oklahoma using the Random Forest classification algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Dong; de Beurs, Kirsten M.

    2016-05-01

    The objective of this paper is to demonstrate a new method to map the distributions of C3 and C4 grasses at 30 m resolution and over a 25-year period of time (1988-2013) by combining the Random Forest (RF) classification algorithm and patch stable areas identified using the spatial pattern analysis software FRAGSTATS. Predictor variables for RF classifications consisted of ten spectral variables, four soil edaphic variables and three topographic variables. We provided a confidence score in terms of obtaining pure land cover at each pixel location by retrieving the classification tree votes. Classification accuracy assessments and predictor variable importance evaluations were conducted based on a repeated stratified sampling approach. Results show that patch stable areas obtained from larger patches are more appropriate to be used as sample data pools to train and validate RF classifiers for historical land cover mapping purposes and it is more reasonable to use patch stable areas as sample pools to map land cover in a year closer to the present rather than years further back in time. The percentage of obtained high confidence prediction pixels across the study area ranges from 71.18% in 1988 to 73.48% in 2013. The repeated stratified sampling approach is necessary in terms of reducing the positive bias in the estimated classification accuracy caused by the possible selections of training and validation pixels from the same patch stable areas. The RF classification algorithm was able to identify the important environmental factors affecting the distributions of C3 and C4 grasses in our study area such as elevation, soil pH, soil organic matter and soil texture.

  4. Probabilistic forecasts of extreme local precipitation using HARMONIE predictors and comparing 3 different post-processing methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whan, Kirien; Schmeits, Maurice

    2017-04-01

    Statistical post-processing of deterministic weather forecasts allows production of the full forecast distribution, and thus probabilistic forecasts, to be derived from that deterministic model output. We focus on local extreme precipitation amounts, as these are one predictand used in the KNMI weather warning system. As such, the predictand is based on the maximum hourly calibrated radar precipitation in a 3x3 km2 area within 12 large regions covering The Netherlands in a 6-hour afternoon period in summer (12-18 UTC). We compare three statistical methods when post-processing output from the operational high-resolution forecast model at KNMI, HARMONIE. These methods are 1) extended logistic regression (ELR), 2) an ensemble model output statistics approach where the parameters of a zero-adjusted gamma (ZAGA) distribution depends on a set of covariates and 3) quantile random forests (QRF). The set of predictors used as covariates includes model precipitation and indices capturing a variety of processes associated with deep convection. We use stepwise selection to select predictors for ELR and ZAGA based on the AIC. Predictors and coefficients are selected in a cross-validation framework based one two-years of training data and the skill of the forecasts are assessed on one-year of test data. The inclusion of additional predictors results in more skilfull forecasts, as expected, particularly for higher precipitation thresholds and for forecasts using the QRF method. We also assess the value of using a time-lagged ensemble. Forecasts derived from ZAGA and QRF are generally more skilfull, as defined by the Brier Skill Score, than ELR and lower precipitation amounts are skillfully predicted.

  5. Spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation inferred from streamflow observations across the Sierra Nevada mountain range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henn, Brian; Clark, Martyn P.; Kavetski, Dmitri; Newman, Andrew J.; Hughes, Mimi; McGurk, Bruce; Lundquist, Jessica D.

    2018-01-01

    Given uncertainty in precipitation gauge-based gridded datasets over complex terrain, we use multiple streamflow observations as an additional source of information about precipitation, in order to identify spatial and temporal differences between a gridded precipitation dataset and precipitation inferred from streamflow. We test whether gridded datasets capture across-crest and regional spatial patterns of variability, as well as year-to-year variability and trends in precipitation, in comparison to precipitation inferred from streamflow. We use a Bayesian model calibration routine with multiple lumped hydrologic model structures to infer the most likely basin-mean, water-year total precipitation for 56 basins with long-term (>30 year) streamflow records in the Sierra Nevada mountain range of California. We compare basin-mean precipitation derived from this approach with basin-mean precipitation from a precipitation gauge-based, 1/16° gridded dataset that has been used to simulate and evaluate trends in Western United States streamflow and snowpack over the 20th century. We find that the long-term average spatial patterns differ: in particular, there is less precipitation in the gridded dataset in higher-elevation basins whose aspect faces prevailing cool-season winds, as compared to precipitation inferred from streamflow. In a few years and basins, there is less gridded precipitation than there is observed streamflow. Lower-elevation, southern, and east-of-crest basins show better agreement between gridded and inferred precipitation. Implied actual evapotranspiration (calculated as precipitation minus streamflow) then also varies between the streamflow-based estimates and the gridded dataset. Absolute uncertainty in precipitation inferred from streamflow is substantial, but the signal of basin-to-basin and year-to-year differences are likely more robust. The findings suggest that considering streamflow when spatially distributing precipitation in complex terrain

  6. Stochastic Modeling based on Dictionary Approach for the Generation of Daily Precipitation Occurrences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panu, U. S.; Ng, W.; Rasmussen, P. F.

    2009-12-01

    The modeling of weather states (i.e., precipitation occurrences) is critical when the historical data are not long enough for the desired analysis. Stochastic models (e.g., Markov Chain and Alternating Renewal Process (ARP)) of the precipitation occurrence processes generally assume the existence of short-term temporal-dependency between the neighboring states while implying the existence of long-term independency (randomness) of states in precipitation records. Existing temporal-dependent models for the generation of precipitation occurrences are restricted either by the fixed-length memory (e.g., the order of a Markov chain model), or by the reining states in segments (e.g., persistency of homogenous states within dry/wet-spell lengths of an ARP). The modeling of variable segment lengths and states could be an arduous task and a flexible modeling approach is required for the preservation of various segmented patterns of precipitation data series. An innovative Dictionary approach has been developed in the field of genome pattern recognition for the identification of frequently occurring genome segments in DNA sequences. The genome segments delineate the biologically meaningful ``words" (i.e., segments with a specific patterns in a series of discrete states) that can be jointly modeled with variable lengths and states. A meaningful “word”, in hydrology, can be referred to a segment of precipitation occurrence comprising of wet or dry states. Such flexibility would provide a unique advantage over the traditional stochastic models for the generation of precipitation occurrences. Three stochastic models, namely, the alternating renewal process using Geometric distribution, the second-order Markov chain model, and the Dictionary approach have been assessed to evaluate their efficacy for the generation of daily precipitation sequences. Comparisons involved three guiding principles namely (i) the ability of models to preserve the short-term temporal-dependency in

  7. Mapping Spatial Distribution of Larch Plantations from Multi-Seasonal Landsat-8 OLI Imagery and Multi-Scale Textures Using Random Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tian Gao

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The knowledge about spatial distribution of plantation forests is critical for forest management, monitoring programs and functional assessment. This study demonstrates the potential of multi-seasonal (spring, summer, autumn and winter Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager imageries with random forests (RF modeling to map larch plantations (LP in a typical plantation forest landscape in North China. The spectral bands and two types of textures were applied for creating 675 input variables of RF. An accuracy of 92.7% for LP, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.834, was attained using the RF model. A RF-based importance assessment reveals that the spectral bands and bivariate textural features calculated by pseudo-cross variogram (PC strongly promoted forest class-separability, whereas the univariate textural features influenced weakly. A feature selection strategy eliminated 93% of variables, and then a subset of the 47 most essential variables was generated. In this subset, PC texture derived from summer and winter appeared the most frequently, suggesting that this variability in growing peak season and non-growing season can effectively enhance forest class-separability. A RF classifier applied to the subset led to 91.9% accuracy for LP, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.829. This study provides an insight into approaches for discriminating plantation forests with phenological behaviors.

  8. Photo-thermal study of a layer of randomly distributed gold nanoparticles: from nano-localization to macro-scale effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pezzi, Luigia; Palermo, Giovanna; Veltri, Alessandro; Cataldi, Ugo; Bürgi, Thomas; Ritacco, Tiziana; Giocondo, Michele; Umeton, Cesare; De Luca, Antonio

    2017-11-01

    We present an experimental characterization and a comprehensive theoretical modeling of macroscopic plasmonic heat production that takes place in a single layer of small gold nanoparticles (GNPs), randomly distributed on a glass substrate, covered with different host media and acted on by a resonant radiation. We have performed a detailed experimental study of the temperature variations of three different systems, obtained by varying the density of nanoparticles. Due to the macroscopic dimension of the spot size, the used laser irradiates a huge number of nanoparticles, inducing a broad thermo-plasmonic effect that modifies the thermal conductivity of the entire system; starting from the state of art, we have implemented a simple model that enables to evaluate the resulting new thermal conductivity. We have also extended our theoretical approach to the macroscale, including an analysis of the effects predicted for different NP densities and laser spot size values, as well as for different values of the laser intensity, which can be as low as 0.05 W cm-2 . Theoretically predicted temperature variations are in excellent agreement with experimental results.

  9. Analysis of 18F-DMFP-PET data using Hidden Markov Random Field and the Gaussian distribution to assist the diagnosis of Parkinsonism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segovia, Fermín.; Salas-Gonzalez, Diego; Górriz, Juan M.; Ramírez, Javier; Martínez-Murcia, Francisco J.

    2017-03-01

    18F-DMFP-PET is a neuroimaging modality that allows us to analyze the striatal dopamine. Thus, it is recently emerging as an effective tool to assist the diagnosis of Parkinsonism and differentiate among parkinsonian syndromes. However the analysis of these data, which require specific preprocessing methods, is still poorly covered. In this work we demonstrate a novel methodology based on Hidden Markov Random Fields (HMRF) and the Gaussian distribution to preprocess 18F-DMFP-PET data. First, we performed a selection of voxels based on the analysis of the histogram in order to remove low-signal regions and regions outside the brain. Specifically, we modeled the histogram of intensities of a neuroimage with a mixture of two Gaussians and then, using a HMRF algorithm the voxels corresponding to the low-intensity Gaussian were discarded. This procedure is similar to the tissue segmentation usually applied to Magnetic Resonance Imaging data. Secondly, the intensity of the selected voxels was scaled so that the Gaussian that models the histogram for each neuroimage has same mean and standard deviation. This step made comparable the data from different patients, without removing the characteristic patterns of each patient's disorder. The proposed approach was evaluated using a computer system based on statistical classification that separated the neuroimages according to the parkinsonian variant they represented. The proposed approach achieved higher accuracy rates than standard approaches for voxel selection (based on atlases) and intensity normalization (based on the global mean).

  10. in situ Calcite Precipitation for Contaminant Immobilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshiko Fujita; Robert W. Smith

    2009-08-01

    a well (which can lead to clogging). A final particularly attractive characteristic of this approach is its long-term sustainability; the remediation scheme is geared toward environments that are already saturated with respect to calcite, and in such systems the bulk of any newly precipitated calcite will remain stable once engineered manipulations cease. This means that the co-precipitated contaminants will be effectively sequestered over the long term. We are currently conducting integrated field, laboratory, and computational research to evaluate a) the relationships between urea hydrolysis rate, calcite precipitation rate, and trace metal partitioning under environmentally relevant conditions; and b) the coupling between flow/flux manipulations and calcite precipitate distribution and metal uptake. We are also assessing the application of geophysical and molecular biological tools to monitor the relevant chemical and physical processes. The primary emphasis is on field-scale processes, with the laboratory and modeling activities designed specifically to support the field studies. Field experiments are being conducted in perched water (vadose zone) at the Vadose Zone Research Park (VZRP) at the Idaho National Laboratory; the VZRP provides an uncontaminated setting that is an analog of the 90Sr-contaminated vadose zone at the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center. A summary of results to date will be presented.

  11. The effect of adding ready-to-use supplementary food to a general food distribution on child nutritional status and morbidity: a cluster-randomized controlled trial.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lieven Huybregts

    Full Text Available Recently, operational organizations active in child nutrition in developing countries have suggested that blanket feeding strategies be adopted to enable the prevention of child wasting. A new range of nutritional supplements is now available, with claims that they can prevent wasting in populations at risk of periodic food shortages. Evidence is lacking as to the effectiveness of such preventive interventions. This study examined the effect of a ready-to-use supplementary food (RUSF on the prevention of wasting in 6- to 36-mo-old children within the framework of a general food distribution program.We conducted a two-arm cluster-randomized controlled pragmatic intervention study in a sample of 1,038 children aged 6 to 36 mo in the city of Abeche, Chad. Both arms were included in a general food distribution program providing staple foods. The intervention group was given a daily 46 g of RUSF for 4 mo. Anthropometric measurements and morbidity were recorded monthly. Adding RUSF to a package of monthly household food rations for households containing a child assigned to the intervention group did not result in a reduction in cumulative incidence of wasting (incidence risk ratio: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.67, 1.11; p = 0.25. However, the intervention group had a modestly higher gain in height-for-age (+0.03 Z-score/mo; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.04; p<0.001. In addition, children in the intervention group had a significantly higher hemoglobin concentration at the end of the study than children in the control group (+3.8 g/l; 95% CI: 0.6, 7.0; p = 0.02, thereby reducing the odds of anemia (odds ratio: 0.52; 95% CI: 0.34, 0.82; p = 0.004. Adding RUSF also resulted in a significantly lower risk of self-reported diarrhea (-29.3%; 95% CI: 20.5, 37.2; p<0.001 and fever episodes (-22.5%; 95% CI: 14.0, 30.2; p<0.001. Limitations of this study include that the projected sample size was not fully attained and that significantly fewer children from the control group

  12. Decadal changes in extreme daily precipitation in Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. T. Nastos

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The changes in daily precipitation totals in Greece, during the 45-year period (1957–2001 are examined. The precipitation datasets concern daily totals recorded at 21 surface meteorological stations of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, which are uniformly distributed over the Greek region. First and foremost, the application of Factor Analysis resulted in grouping the meteorological stations with similar variation in time. The main sub groups represent the northern, southern, western, eastern and central regions of Greece with common precipitation characteristics. For representative stations of the extracted sub groups we estimated the trends and the time variability for the number of days (% exceeding 30 mm (equal to the 95% percentile of daily precipitation for eastern and western regions and equal to the 97.5% percentile for the rest of the country and 50 mm which is the threshold for very extreme and rare events. Furthermore, the scale and shape parameters of the well fitted gamma distribution to the daily precipitation data with respect to the whole examined period and to the 10-year sub periods reveal the changes in the intensity of the precipitation.

  13. A video precipitation sensor for imaging and velocimetry of hydrometeors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, X. C.; Gao, T. C.; Liu, L.

    2014-07-01

    A new method to determine the shape and fall velocity of hydrometeors by using a single CCD camera is proposed in this paper, and a prototype of a video precipitation sensor (VPS) is developed. The instrument consists of an optical unit (collimated light source with multi-mode fibre cluster), an imaging unit (planar array CCD sensor), an acquisition and control unit, and a data processing unit. The cylindrical space between the optical unit and imaging unit is sampling volume (300 mm × 40 mm × 30 mm). As the precipitation particles fall through the sampling volume, the CCD camera exposes twice in a single frame, which allows the double exposure of particles images to be obtained. The size and shape can be obtained by the images of particles; the fall velocity can be calculated by particle displacement in the double-exposure image and interval time; the drop size distribution and velocity distribution, precipitation intensity, and accumulated precipitation amount can be calculated by time integration. The innovation of VPS is that the shape, size, and velocity of precipitation particles can be measured by only one planar array CCD sensor, which can address the disadvantages of a linear scan CCD disdrometer and an impact disdrometer. Field measurements of rainfall demonstrate the VPS's capability to measure micro-physical properties of single particles and integral parameters of precipitation.

  14. Improvement of APHRODITE precipitation data over South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Gil; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Park, Chang-yong

    2017-04-01

    The APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources) data has been widely used for the evaluation of the numerical model due to its higher spatial and temporal resolutions. However, some studies have indicated that it significantly underestimates the extreme precipitation values for several regions compared with station-based observation. In this study, therefore, the 25 year (1981-2005) APHRODITE precipitation data over South Korea was revised using Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) data from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). After the spatial resolution and temporal interval of the ASOS data were changed to be same as those in the APHRODITE data, the GEV (Generalized Extreme Value) distribution for each data was calculated. After then, the GEV distribution of the APHRODITE data was corrected using the quantile mapping method. The corrected APHRODITE data was similar to the annual mean precipitation of the ASOS data. In particular, the annual mean precipitation over South Korea reasonably increased by 10% and the extreme value of precipitation have significantly improved. Acknowledgement The research was supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development program under grant KMIPA 2015-2083 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

  15. California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caldwell, P M

    2009-04-27

    In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

  16. Preliminary microphysical characterization of precipitation at ground over Antarctica coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberto, Nicoletta; Adirosi, Elisa; Montopoli, Mario; Baldini, Luca; Dietrich, Stefano; Porcù, Federico

    2017-04-01

    The primary mass input of the Antarctic ice sheet is snow precipitation which is one of the most direct climatic indicators. Climatic model simulations of precipitations over Antarctica is an important task to assess the variation of ice sheet over long temporal scale. The main source of precipitation information in Antarctica regions derive from satellite observations. However, satellite measurements and products need to be calibrated and validated with observations from ground sensors. In spite of their key role, precipitation measurements at ground are scarce and not appropriate to provide the specific characteristic of precipitation particles that influence the scattering and absorption properties of ice particles. Recently, different stations in Antarctica (Princess Elizabeth, McMurdo, Mario Zucchelli) are equipping observatories for cloud and precipitation observations. The setup of the observatory at the Italian Station, Mario Zucchelli (MZ) plans to integrate the current instrumentation for weather measurements with other instruments specific for precipitation observations, in particular, a 24-GHz vertical pointing radar and a laser disdrometer Parsivel. The synergetic use of the set of instruments allows for characterizing precipitation and studying properties of Antarctic precipitation such as dimension, shapes, fall behavior, density of particles, particles size distribution, particles terminal velocity, reflectivity factor and including some information on their vertical extent. Last November, the OTT Parsivel disdrometer was installed on the roof of a logistic container (at 6 m of height) of the MZ station (Latitude 74° 41' 42" S; Longitude 164° 07' 23E") in the Terranova Bay. The disdrometer measures size and fall velocity of particles, passing through a laser matrix from which the Particle Size Distribution (PSD) is obtained. In addition, some products such as reflectivity factor, snow rate and snow accumulation can be inferred by properly

  17. Hourly and Daily Precipitation Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Precipitation reports submitted on many form types, including tabular and autographic charts. Reports are almost exclusively from the US Cooperative Observer Network.

  18. Electrostatic precipitators for industrial applications

    CERN Document Server

    Francis, Steve L; Bradburn, Keith M

    2014-01-01

    This Guidebook provides basic knowledge of the physics and power supplies of electrostatic precipitators. It also deals with practical aspects of ESP design and gives examples of typical applications of ESPs.

  19. Atrial Ectopics Precipitating Atrial Fibrillation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johnson Francis

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Holter monitor tracing showing blocked atrial ectopics and atrial ectopic precipitating atrial fibrillation is being demonstrated. Initially it was coarse atrial fibrillation, which rapidly degenerated into fine atrial fibrillation.

  20. Environmental Radioactivity, Temperature, and Precipitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riland, Carson A.

    1996-01-01

    Reports that environmental radioactivity levels vary with temperature and precipitation and these effects are due to radon. Discusses the measurement of this environmental radioactivity and the theory behind it. (JRH)

  1. Effect of Precipitable Water Vapor Amount on Radiative Cooling Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Mingke; Zhao, Bin; Ao, Xianze; Pei, Gang

    2017-05-01

    A radiative cooler based on aluminum-evaporated polyvinyl-fluoride surface was employed to investigate the effect of precipitable water vapor amount on its radiative cooling performance. A mathematic model of steady heat transfer that considers the spectral radiant distribution of the sky, the transparent cover and the collecting surface was established. The results indicate that the amount of precipitable water vapor shows a remarkable and negative effect on radiative cooling performance of the radiative cooler. Both the temperature difference between the cooler and surroundings and the net radiative cooling power decrease as the precipitable water vapor amount increases. The net radiative cooling power drops by about 41.0% as the the precipitable water vapor amount changes from 1.0 cm to 7.0 cm. Besides, the radiative cooler shows better cooling performance in winter than in summer. The net radiative cooling power in summer of Hefei is about 82.2% of that in winter.

  2. Nonstationary modeling of extreme precipitation in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Meng; Mo, Dingyuan; Wu, Xiaoqing

    2016-12-01

    The statistical methods based on extreme value theory have been traditionally used in meteorology and hydrology for a long time. Due to climate change and variability, the hypothesis of stationarity in meteorological or hydrological time series was usually not satisfied. In this paper, a nonstationary extreme value analysis was conducted for annual maximum daily precipitation (AMP) at 631 meteorological stations over China for the period 1951-2013. Stationarity of all 631 AMP time series was firstly tested using KPSS test method, and only 48 AMP time series showed non-stationarity at 5% significance level. The trends of these 48 nonstationary AMP time series were further tested using M-K test method. There were 25 nonstationary AMP time series mainly distributed in southern and western China showing significant positive trend at 5% level. Another 5 nonstationary AMP time series with significant negative trends were near northern urban agglomeration, Sichuan Basin, and central China. For these nonstationary AMP time series with significant positive or negative trends, the location parameter in generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was assumed to be time-varying, and the trends were successfully characterized by the nonstationary GEV models. For the remaining 18 nonstationary AMP time series mainly in the eastern portion of China, no significant trend was detected. The correlation analysis showed that only 5 nonstationary AMP time series were significantly correlated with one or two of the four climate indices EASMI, WPI, SOI, and PDO. Then, the location and scale parameters in the GEV distribution were modeled as functions of the significantly correlated climate indices. The modeling results in this study showed that the nonstationary GEV distributions performed better than their stationary equivalents. Finally, 20-year and 50-year return levels of precipitation extremes at all 631 stations were estimated using the best fitting distribution for the year 1961

  3. Influence of cooling rate and tempering on precipitation and hardness of vanadium microalloyed steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guenduez, S. [Karabuek Technical Education Faculty, Zonguldak Karaelmas University, 78200 Karabuek (Turkey)]. E-mail: sgunduz@hotmail.com; Cochrane, R.C. [Department of Materials, School of Process, Environmental and Materials Engineering, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: mtlrcc@ecu-01.novell.leeds.ac.uk

    2005-07-01

    In the present work precipitate distributions in a C-Mn-Al-V-N microalloyed steel and hardness were examined for as-received, heat-treated and heat-treated and tempered samples. Examination of as-received and heat-treated samples from the vanadium microalloyed steels using transmission electron microscopy revealed quite different precipitate distributions. The type and sizes of the precipitate particles and also hardness of the steel samples were markedly affected as the austenitisation time and cooling rates were changed. Tempering steel samples after air cooling produced fine matrix precipitates which are closely spaced, obstruct moving dislocations and hence make the steel harder.

  4. Precipitation interpolation and corresponding uncertainty assessment using copulas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardossy, A.; Pegram, G. G.

    2012-12-01

    Spatial interpolation of rainfall over different time and spatial scales is necessary in many applications of hydrometeorology. The specific problems encountered in rainfall interpolation include: the large number of calculations which need to be performed automatically the quantification of the influence of topography, usually the most influential of exogenous variables how to use observed zero (dry) values in interpolation, because their proportion increases the shorter the time interval the need to estimate a reasonable uncertainty of the modelled point/pixel distributions the need to separate (i) temporally highly correlated bias from (ii) random interpolation errors at different spatial and temporal scales the difficulty of estimating uncertainty of accumulations over a range of spatial scales. The approaches used and described in the presentation employ the variables rainfall and altitude. The methods of interpolation include (i) Ordinary Kriging of the rainfall without altitude, (ii) External Drift Kriging with altitude as an exogenous variable, and less conventionally, (iii) truncated Gaussian copulas and truncated v-copulas, both omitting and including the altitude of the control stations as well as that of the target (iv) truncated Gaussian copulas and truncated v-copulas for a two-step interpolation of precipitation combining temporal and spatial quantiles for bias quantification. It was found that truncated Gaussian copulas, with the target's and all control the stations' altitudes included as exogenous variables, produce the lowest Mean Square error in cross-validation and, as a bonus, model with the least bias. In contrast, the uncertainty of interpolation is better described by the v-copulas, but the Gaussian copulas have the advantage of computational effort (by three orders of magnitude) which justifies their use in practice. It turns out that the uncertainty estimates of the OK and EDK interpolants are not competitive at any time scale, from daily

  5. Co-localized or randomly distributed? Pair cross correlation of in vivo grown subgingival biofilm bacteria quantified by digital image analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Schillinger

    Full Text Available The polymicrobial nature of periodontal diseases is reflected by the diversity of phylotypes detected in subgingival plaque and the finding that consortia of suspected pathogens rather than single species are associated with disease development. A number of these microorganisms have been demonstrated in vitro to interact and enhance biofilm integration, survival or even pathogenic features. To examine the in vivo relevance of these proposed interactions, we extended the spatial arrangement analysis tool of the software daime (digital image analysis in microbial ecology. This modification enabled the quantitative analysis of microbial co-localization in images of subgingival biofilm species, where the biomass was confined to fractions of the whole-image area, a situation common for medical samples. Selected representatives of the disease-associated red and orange complexes that were previously suggested to interact with each other in vitro (Tannerella forsythia with Fusobacterium nucleatum and Porphyromonas gingivalis with Prevotella intermedia were chosen for analysis and labeled with specific fluorescent probes via fluorescence in situ hybridization. Pair cross-correlation analysis of in vivo grown biofilms revealed tight clustering of F. nucleatum/periodonticum and T. forsythia at short distances (up to 6 µm with a pronounced peak at 1.5 µm. While these results confirmed previous in vitro observations for F. nucleatum and T. forsythia, random spatial distribution was detected between P. gingivalis and P. intermedia in the in vivo samples. In conclusion, we successfully employed spatial arrangement analysis on the single cell level in clinically relevant medical samples and demonstrated the utility of this approach for the in vivo validation of in vitro observations by analyzing statistically relevant numbers of different patients. More importantly, the culture-independent nature of this approach enables similar quantitative analyses for "as

  6. Co-localized or randomly distributed? Pair cross correlation of in vivo grown subgingival biofilm bacteria quantified by digital image analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schillinger, Claudia; Petrich, Annett; Lux, Renate; Riep, Birgit; Kikhney, Judith; Friedmann, Anton; Wolinsky, Lawrence E; Göbel, Ulf B; Daims, Holger; Moter, Annette

    2012-01-01

    The polymicrobial nature of periodontal diseases is reflected by the diversity of phylotypes detected in subgingival plaque and the finding that consortia of suspected pathogens rather than single species are associated with disease development. A number of these microorganisms have been demonstrated in vitro to interact and enhance biofilm integration, survival or even pathogenic features. To examine the in vivo relevance of these proposed interactions, we extended the spatial arrangement analysis tool of the software daime (digital image analysis in microbial ecology). This modification enabled the quantitative analysis of microbial co-localization in images of subgingival biofilm species, where the biomass was confined to fractions of the whole-image area, a situation common for medical samples. Selected representatives of the disease-associated red and orange complexes that were previously suggested to interact with each other in vitro (Tannerella forsythia with Fusobacterium nucleatum and Porphyromonas gingivalis with Prevotella intermedia) were chosen for analysis and labeled with specific fluorescent probes via fluorescence in situ hybridization. Pair cross-correlation analysis of in vivo grown biofilms revealed tight clustering of F. nucleatum/periodonticum and T. forsythia at short distances (up to 6 µm) with a pronounced peak at 1.5 µm. While these results confirmed previous in vitro observations for F. nucleatum and T. forsythia, random spatial distribution was detected between P. gingivalis and P. intermedia in the in vivo samples. In conclusion, we successfully employed spatial arrangement analysis on the single cell level in clinically relevant medical samples and demonstrated the utility of this approach for the in vivo validation of in vitro observations by analyzing statistically relevant numbers of different patients. More importantly, the culture-independent nature of this approach enables similar quantitative analyses for "as

  7. A stochastic space-time model for intermittent precipitation occurrences

    KAUST Repository

    Sun, Ying

    2016-01-28

    Modeling a precipitation field is challenging due to its intermittent and highly scale-dependent nature. Motivated by the features of high-frequency precipitation data from a network of rain gauges, we propose a threshold space-time t random field (tRF) model for 15-minute precipitation occurrences. This model is constructed through a space-time Gaussian random field (GRF) with random scaling varying along time or space and time. It can be viewed as a generalization of the purely spatial tRF, and has a hierarchical representation that allows for Bayesian interpretation. Developing appropriate tools for evaluating precipitation models is a crucial part of the model-building process, and we focus on evaluating whether models can produce the observed conditional dry and rain probabilities given that some set of neighboring sites all have rain or all have no rain. These conditional probabilities show that the proposed space-time model has noticeable improvements in some characteristics of joint rainfall occurrences for the data we have considered.

  8. Satellite-based Precipitation Measurements For Science and Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skofronick Jackson, G.; Huffman, G. J.

    2016-12-01

    Water is essential to Earth. Thus, knowing when, where, and how precipitation falls is of paramount importance for science and society. Some areas of the world have dense ground-based rain observations, but the vast oceans, less populated regions, and parts of developing countries lack adequate surface precipitation data. Satellites provide an optimal platform to measure precipitation globally. In the 1970's satellites started measuring precipitation and, over time, satellite precipitation sensors improved considerably. A major breakthrough was the 1998 launch of the joint NASA-Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The TRMM spacecraft had both a multi-frequency passive microwave imaging radiometer for measuring wide-swath rainfall surface intensity and horizontal structures, and a single-frequency radar channel capable of generating 3D views of rain in clouds. In 2014, NASA and JAXA launched the Global Precipitation Measurement Core Observatory (GPM-CO) spacecraft carrying the most advanced precipitation sensors currently in space, including a dual-frequency precipitation radar and a well-calibrated, multi-frequency passive microwave radiometer. The GPM-CO was designed to measure precipitation rates from 0.2-110 mm hr-1, to provide 3D particle size distributions, and to detect moderate to intense snow events, considerably improving over TRMM's capabilities. The GPM-CO serves as a reference for unifying data from a constellation of partner satellites to provide next-generation, merged estimates globally and with high temporal (30 min) and spatial (0.1ox0.1o) resolutions. GPM data have been used for observing hurricanes from the tropics to mid-latitudes; developing susceptibility maps for floods, landslides, and droughts; providing inputs into weather and climate models; and offering new insights into agricultural productivity and world health. The current status of GPM, its ongoing science, and the future plans will be

  9. The effect of scale in daily precipitation hazard assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Egozcue

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24 h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24 h precipitation by a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA corresponds to finite support variables as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. Bayesian techniques are used to estimate the parameters. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimated GPD is mainly in the Fréchet DA, something incompatible with the common sense assumption of that precipitation is a bounded phenomenon. The bounded character of precipitation is then taken as a priori hypothesis. Consistency of this hypothesis with the data is checked in two cases: using the raw-data (in mm and using log-transformed data. As expected, a Bayesian model checking clearly rejects the model in the raw-data case. However, log-transformed data seem to be consistent with the model. This fact may be due to the adequacy of the log-scale to represent positive measurements for which differences are better relative than absolute.

  10. Latitudinal Controls on Topography: The Role of Precipitation and Fluvial Erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorensen, C.; Yanites, B.

    2014-12-01

    Observations from the North and South American Cordillera show that mean and maximum elevations decrease with increasing latitude. The trend in elevation follows the latitudinal dependence of snowline altitudes. This correlation between elevation and snowline altitude has been the impetus behind the glacial 'buzzsaw' hypothesis, which states that glaciers limit the elevation of mountain peaks. Underlying this hypothesis is an assumption that elevations prior to glaciation were either uniform, randomly distributed, or followed a pattern that is no longer present. However, there may be other factors that are responsible for these patterns, such as latitudinal trends in precipitation. Here, we address this assumption and the necessity of glacial erosion in explaining the latitudinal trend in elevation. We use the CHILD landscape evolution model parameterized by modern precipitation data along a latitudinal gradient in the Andes to predict the topography in the absence of glaciation. Using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis precipitation data from 1981-2010, we derive storm duration, intensity, and frequency statistics for a series of locations along the Andean orogen. For each location, we run a model using a sequence of storms generated from these statistics. Erodibility and rock-uplift are held constant between the different locations and the models are run until topographic steady-state is achieved. We also present runs exploring the role of a threshold for bedrock detachment in the modeled results. For each run, we track the maximum and mean elevation as well as the time to steady-state. Preliminary results for all cases show that fluvial processes alone are sufficient to account for the latitudinal dependence of topography. For example, landscapes produced with precipitation statistics similar to the dry central Andes are more than an order of magnitude higher than landscapes from the southern, wetter, part of the orogen. Future analysis will use precipitation data from

  11. Quantitative characterization and comparison of precipitate and grain shape in Nickel -base superalloys using moment invariants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callahan, Patrick Gregory

    A fundamental objective of materials science and engineering is to understand the structure-property-processing-performance relationship. We need to know the true 3-D microstructure of a material to understand certain geometric properties of a material, and thus fulfill this objective. Focused ion beam (FIB) serial sectioning allows us to find the true 3-D microstructure of Ni-base superalloys. Once the true 3-D microstructure is obtained, an accurate quantitative description and characterization of precipitate and/or grain shapes is needed to understand the microstructure and describe it in an unbiased way. In this thesis, second order moment invariants, the shape quotient Q, a convexity measure relating the volume of an object to the volume of its convex hull, V/Vconv, and Gaussian curvature have been used to compare an experimentally observed polycrystalline IN100 microstructure to three synthetic microstructures. The three synthetic microstructures used different shape classes to produce starting grain shapes. The three shape classes are ellipsoids, superellipsoids, and the shapes generated when truncating a cube with an octahedron. The microstructures are compared using a distance measure, the Hellinger distance. The Hellinger distance is used to compare distributions of shape descriptors for the grains in each microstructure. The synthetic microstructure that has the smallest Hellinger distance, and so best matched the experimentally observed microstructure is the microstructure that used superellipsoids as a starting grain shape. While it has the smallest Hellinger distance, and is approaching realistic grain morphologies, the superellipsoidal microstructure is still not realistic. Second order moment invariants, Q, and V/V conv have also been used to characterize the γ' precipitate shapes from four experimental Ru-containing Ni-base superalloys with differences in alloying additions. The superalloys are designated UM-F9, UM-F18, UM-F19, and UM-F22. The

  12. The Global Precipitation Measurement Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Gail

    2014-05-01

    The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission's Core satellite, scheduled for launch at the end of February 2014, is well designed estimate precipitation from 0.2 to 110 mm/hr and to detect falling snow. Knowing where and how much rain and snow falls globally is vital to understanding how weather and climate impact both our environment and Earth's water and energy cycles, including effects on agriculture, fresh water availability, and responses to natural disasters. The design of the GPM Core Observatory is an advancement of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)'s highly successful rain-sensing package [3]. The cornerstone of the GPM mission is the deployment of a Core Observatory in a unique 65o non-Sun-synchronous orbit to serve as a physics observatory and a calibration reference to improve precipitation measurements by a constellation of 8 or more dedicated and operational, U.S. and international passive microwave sensors. The Core Observatory will carry a Ku/Ka-band Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and a multi-channel (10-183 GHz) GPM Microwave Radiometer (GMI). The DPR will provide measurements of 3-D precipitation structures and microphysical properties, which are key to achieving a better understanding of precipitation processes and improving retrieval algorithms for passive microwave radiometers. The combined use of DPR and GMI measurements will place greater constraints on possible solutions to radiometer retrievals to improve the accuracy and consistency of precipitation retrievals from all constellation radiometers. Furthermore, since light rain and falling snow account for a significant fraction of precipitation occurrence in middle and high latitudes, the GPM instruments extend the capabilities of the TRMM sensors to detect falling snow, measure light rain, and provide, for the first time, quantitative estimates of microphysical properties of precipitation particles. The GPM Core Observatory was developed and tested at NASA

  13. Space-charge electrostatic precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Middleton, C.E.

    1977-05-01

    An improved electrostatic precipitator called a space charge precipitator was tested and studied. A space charge precipitator differs from a conventional model in that the fields necessary to move the particles from the gas to the collecting surfaces are provided by a cloud of charged innocuous drops, such as glycerine or water, rather than by a charged electrode system. The flow conditions, electrical equipment, and physical dimensions of the test precipitator are typical of industrial applications. Experiments using water fog at a velocity of 10 ft/sec and a residence time of 0.6 sec, for a system charged at 25 kV, show a removal of iron oxide particles of approximately 52 percent. Theoretical calculations, assuming 2 micron particles, predict a removal of 50 percent. The results with glycerine fog are comparable. Experiments at various flowrates for both water fog and glycerine fog show a trend of decreasing particle removal for increasing flowrate. An identical trend is predicted by the space charge theory. Electron micrographs verify that only particles smaller than two microns are present in the laboratory precipitator.

  14. Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Serbia for the period 1961-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milovanović, Boško; Schuster, Phillip; Radovanović, Milan; Vakanjac, Vesna Ristić; Schneider, Christoph

    2017-10-01

    Monthly, seasonal and annual sums of precipitation in Serbia were analysed in this paper for the period 1961-2010. Latitude, longitude and altitude of 421 precipitation stations and terrain features in their close environment (slope and aspect of terrain within a radius of 10 km around the station) were used to develop a regression model on which spatial distribution of precipitation was calculated. The spatial distribution of annual, June (maximum values for almost all of the stations) and February (minimum values for almost all of the stations) precipitation is presented. Annual precipitation amounts ranged from 500 to 600 mm to over 1100 mm. June precipitation ranged from 60 to 140 mm and February precipitation from 30 to 100 mm. The validation results expressed as root mean square error (RMSE) for monthly sums ranged from 3.9 mm in October (7.5% of the average precipitation for this month) to 6.2 mm in April (10.4%). For seasonal sums, RMSE ranged from 10.4 mm during autumn (6.1% of the average precipitation for this season) to 20.5 mm during winter (13.4%). On the annual scale, RMSE was 68 mm (9.5% of the average amount of precipitation). We further analysed precipitation trends using Sen's estimation, while the Mann-Kendall test was used for testing the statistical significance of the trends. For most parts of Serbia, the mean annual precipitation trends fell between -5 and +5 and +5 and +15 mm/decade. June precipitation trends were mainly between -8 and +8 mm/decade. February precipitation trends generally ranged from -3 to +3 mm/decade.

  15. Supplementary Material for: Tukey g-and-h Random Fields

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Ganggang

    2016-01-01

    We propose a new class of transGaussian random fields named Tukey g-and-h (TGH) random fields to model non-Gaussian spatial data. The proposed TGH random fields have extremely flexible marginal distributions, possibly skewed and/or heavy-tailed, and, therefore, have a wide range of applications. The special formulation of the TGH random field enables an automatic search for the most suitable transformation for the dataset of interest while estimating model parameters. Asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator and the probabilistic properties of the TGH random fields are investigated. An efficient estimation procedure, based on maximum approximated likelihood, is proposed and an extreme spatial outlier detection algorithm is formulated. Kriging and probabilistic prediction with TGH random fields are developed along with prediction confidence intervals. The predictive performance of TGH random fields is demonstrated through extensive simulation studies and an application to a dataset of total precipitation in the south east of the United States. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

  16. The Effect of a Vegetarian vs Conventional Hypocaloric Diabetic Diet on Thigh Adipose Tissue Distribution in Subjects with Type 2 Diabetes: A Randomized Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahleova, Hana; Klementova, Marta; Herynek, Vit; Skoch, Antonin; Herynek, Stepan; Hill, Martin; Mari, Andrea; Pelikanova, Terezie

    2017-07-01

    The aim of our study was to compare the effects of a vegetarian and a conventional diet on thigh adipose tissue distribution in subjects with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Seventy-four subjects with T2D were randomly assigned to either follow a vegetarian diet (V, n = 37) or a control group who followed an isocaloric conventional anti-diabetic diet (C, n = 37). Both diets were calorie restricted (-500 kcal/day). To measure insulin sensitivity, the hyperinsulinemic (1 mU.kg(-1).min(-1)) isoglycemic clamp was conducted. β-Cell function was assessed using a mathematical model after a test meal. Magnetic resonance imaging of the thigh was performed. All subjects were examined at 0, 3, and 6 months. Statistical analyses were performed using repeated measures analysis of variance and a multivariate regression model. Greater reduction was observed in total leg area in V (-13.6 cm(2) [95% confidence interval [CI], -14.2 to -12.9] in V vs -9.9 cm(2) [95% CI, -10.6 to -9.2] in C; Gxt p vegetarian diet (-0.82 [95% CI, -1.13 to -0.55] cm(2) in V vs -0.44 [95% CI, -0.78 to +0.02] cm(2) in C; Gxt, p = 0.04). The reduction in intramuscular fat tended to be greater in response to a vegetarian diet (-1.78 [95% CI, -2.26 to -1.27] cm(2) in V vs -0.57 [95% CI, -1.06 to -0.09] cm(2) in C; Gxt, p = 0.12). Changes in subcutaneous and subfascial fat correlated with changes in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), fasting plasma glucose, and β-cell insulin sensitivity. After adjustment for changes in body mass index (BMI), correlations remained significant for changes in fasting plasma glucose and β-cell insulin sensitivity and with changes in triglycerides. Our data indicate the importance of both subcutaneous and subfascial fat in relationship to glucose and lipid metabolism. BMI , body mass index; C , control group; FPG , fasting plasma glucose; Gxt , interaction between group and time; HbA1c , glycated hemoglobin; MCR , metabolic clearance rate of glucose; OPLS , orthogonal projections to

  17. Using NDVI to measure precipitation in semi-arid landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birtwhistle, Amy N.; Laituri, Melinda; Bledsoe, Brian; Friedman, Jonathan M.

    2016-01-01

    Measuring precipitation in semi-arid landscapes is important for understanding the processes related to rainfall and run-off; however, measuring precipitation accurately can often be challenging especially within remote regions where precipitation instruments are scarce. Typically, rain-gauges are sparsely distributed and research comparing rain-gauge and RADAR precipitation estimates reveal that RADAR data are often misleading, especially for monsoon season convective storms. This study investigates an alternative way to map the spatial and temporal variation of precipitation inputs along ephemeral stream channels using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery. NDVI values from 26 years of pre- and post-monsoon season Landsat imagery were derived across Yuma Proving Ground (YPG), a region covering 3,367 km2 of semiarid landscapes in southwestern Arizona, USA. The change in NDVI from a pre-to post-monsoon season image along ephemeral stream channels explained 73% of the variance in annual monsoonal precipitation totals from a nearby rain-gauge. In addition, large seasonal changes in NDVI along channels were useful in determining when and where flow events have occurred.

  18. Extreme Precipitation and Runoff under Changing Climate in Southern Maine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yan, Eugene [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Jared, Alissa [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Mahat, Vinod [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Picel, Mark [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Verner, Duane [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wall, Thomas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Moges, Edom M. [Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States); Demissie, Yonas K. [Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States); Pierce, Julia [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-12-01

    The quantification of extreme precipitation events is vitally important for designing and engineering water and flood sensitive infrastructure. Since this kind of infrastructure is usually built to last much longer than 10, 50, or even 100 years, there is great need for statistically sound estimates of the intensity of 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year rainstorms and associated floods. The recent assessment indicated that the intensity of the most extreme precipitation events (or the heaviest 1% of all daily events) have increased in every region of the contiguous states since the 1950s (Melillo et al. 2014). The maximum change in precipitation intensity of extreme events occurred in the northeast region reaching 71%. The precipitation extremes can be characterized using intensity-duration-frequency analysis (IDF). However, the current IDFs in this region were developed around the assumption that climate condition remains stationary over the next 50 or 100 years. To better characterize the potential flood risk, this project will (1) develop precipitation IDFs on the basis of both historical observations and future climate projections from dynamic downscaling with Argonne National Laboratory’s (Argonne’s) regional climate model and (2) develop runoff IDFs using precipitation IDFs for the Casco Bay Watershed. IDF development also considers non-stationary distribution models and snowmelt effects that are not incorporated in the current IDFs.

  19. Radar-Derived Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Based on Precipitation Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lili Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A method for improving radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimation is proposed. Tropical vertical profiles of reflectivity (VPRs are first determined from multiple VPRs. Upon identifying a tropical VPR, the event can be further classified as either tropical-stratiform or tropical-convective rainfall by a fuzzy logic (FL algorithm. Based on the precipitation-type fields, the reflectivity values are converted into rainfall rate using a Z-R relationship. In order to evaluate the performance of this rainfall classification scheme, three experiments were conducted using three months of data and two study cases. In Experiment I, the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D default Z-R relationship was applied. In Experiment II, the precipitation regime was separated into convective and stratiform rainfall using the FL algorithm, and corresponding Z-R relationships were used. In Experiment III, the precipitation regime was separated into convective, stratiform, and tropical rainfall, and the corresponding Z-R relationships were applied. The results show that the rainfall rates obtained from all three experiments match closely with the gauge observations, although Experiment II could solve the underestimation, when compared to Experiment I. Experiment III significantly reduced this underestimation and generated the most accurate radar estimates of rain rate among the three experiments.

  20. Complexing-precipitating geochemical barriers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savenko, A. V.

    2017-02-01

    New types of geochemical barriers on which chemical elements are immobilized as a result of combined complex formation and precipitation of barely soluble mineral phases are examined. A significant concentration of major components (Fe, Al) forming more stable complexes than an immobilized component X in the material is a necessary condition for this type of geochemical barriers. Filtration of the solution through a geochemical barrier is accompanied by substitution of X in the complex with a major component. As a result, the activity of X in the free state increases, and one barely soluble mineral phase or another of the component X precipitates when the state of saturation is achieved.

  1. Statistical Characterization of the State-of-Health of Lithium-Ion Batteries with Weibull Distribution Function—A Consideration of Random Effect Model in Charge Capacity Decay Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chinedu I. Ossai

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Effective prognosis of lithium-ion batteries involves the inclusion of the influences of uncertainties that can be incorporated through random effect parameters in a nonlinear mixed effect degradation model framework. This study is geared towards the estimation of the reliability of lithium-ion batteries, using parametric effects determination involving uncertainty, using a multiphase decay patterned sigmoidal model, experimental data and the Weibull distribution function. The random effect model, which uses Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE and Stochastic Approximation Expectation Maximization (SAEM algorithm to predict the parametric values, was found to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL to an accuracy of more than 98%. The State-of-Health (SOH of the batteries was estimated using the Weibull distribution function, which is found to be an appropriate formulation to use.

  2. Spatial interpolation schemes of daily precipitation for hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Y.; Clark, M.R.; Rajagopalan, B.; Leavesley, G.

    2012-01-01

    Distributed hydrologic models typically require spatial estimates of precipitation interpolated from sparsely located observational points to the specific grid points. We compare and contrast the performance of regression-based statistical methods for the spatial estimation of precipitation in two hydrologically different basins and confirmed that widely used regression-based estimation schemes fail to describe the realistic spatial variability of daily precipitation field. The methods assessed are: (1) inverse distance weighted average; (2) multiple linear regression (MLR); (3) climatological MLR; and (4) locally weighted polynomial regression (LWP). In order to improve the performance of the interpolations, the authors propose a two-step regression technique for effective daily precipitation estimation. In this simple two-step estimation process, precipitation occurrence is first generated via a logistic regression model before estimate the amount of precipitation separately on wet days. This process generated the precipitation occurrence, amount, and spatial correlation effectively. A distributed hydrologic model (PRMS) was used for the impact analysis in daily time step simulation. Multiple simulations suggested noticeable differences between the input alternatives generated by three different interpolation schemes. Differences are shown in overall simulation error against the observations, degree of explained variability, and seasonal volumes. Simulated streamflows also showed different characteristics in mean, maximum, minimum, and peak flows. Given the same parameter optimization technique, LWP input showed least streamflow error in Alapaha basin and CMLR input showed least error (still very close to LWP) in Animas basin. All of the two-step interpolation inputs resulted in lower streamflow error compared to the directly interpolated inputs. ?? 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  3. Interpreting parameters in the logistic regression model with random effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Klaus; Petersen, Jørgen Holm; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

    2000-01-01

    interpretation, interval odds ratio, logistic regression, median odds ratio, normally distributed random effects......interpretation, interval odds ratio, logistic regression, median odds ratio, normally distributed random effects...

  4. Precipitation climatology and trends in the Indus Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanov, V. Y.; Minallah, S.

    2016-12-01

    The Indus River feeds one of the largest irrigation systems in the world and is the principal water source for a large population in the region. There are few areas where economical, ecological, and societal sensitivity to climate change is as high as in the Indus Basin. Yet, the understanding of the regional hydroclimatology is limited. The objective of this study is to address this knowledge gap through analysis of spatiotemporal structure and trends in regional precipitation. Two main precipitation drivers - summer South Asian Monsoon and winter Westerlies - generate a complex footprint within the basin. We partition the Indus Basin into five sub-regions (high-altitude Himalayas, Hindukush, Hinudkush extension, Karakoram, and the downstream Plains) to establish seasonal climatology for each and then carry out trend anlayses for annual and seasonal precipitation. To differentiate between short- (decadal) and long-term (multi-decadal) climate features, we employ a running trend approach to determine the significance of trends for various start and end years. We use two methods to determine the onset and withdrawal dates of the Monsoons: a precipitation-based approach relying on changes in precipitation intensity and duration, and a Bayesian inference methodology that detects change points of moisture advection into the region. The spatial distribution yields a sharp gradient marking a high precipitation zone in the Himalayas. We find that the Monsoons do not penetrate deeper into the high-mountain ranges however monsoonal fringes effect the southern and south-eastern edges of the Karakoram and Hindukush, respectively. The Hindukush region is dominated by winter Westerlies while the Karakoram region presents a complex case, where the summer precipitation appears to be larger but estimates carry much greater uncertainty. We also find that over past two decades, the annual precipitation magnitude has significantly increased and we note a trend in the Monsoon arrival

  5. The spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over the Himalaya: evaluation of one-year WRF model simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Jesse; Carvalho, Leila M. V.; Jones, Charles; Cannon, Forest; Bookhagen, Bodo; Palazzi, Elisa; Tahir, Adnan Ahmad

    2017-09-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation over central Asia over the year April 2005 through March 2006. Experiments are performed at 6.7 km horizontal grid spacing, with an emphasis on winter and summer precipitation over the Himalaya. The model and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission show a similar inter-seasonal cycle of precipitation, from extratropical cyclones to monsoon precipitation, with agreement also in the diurnal cycle of monsoon precipitation. In winter months, WRF compares better in timeseries of daily precipitation to stations below than above 3-km elevation, likely due to inferior measurement of snow than rain by the stations, highlighting the need for reliable snowfall measurements at high elevations in winter. In summer months, the nocturnal precipitation cycle in the foothills and valleys of the Himalaya is captured by this 6.7-km WRF simulation, while coarser simulations with convective parameterization show near zero nocturnal precipitation. In winter months, higher resolution is less important, serving only to slightly increase precipitation magnitudes due to steeper slopes. However, even in the 6.7-km simulation, afternoon precipitation is overestimated at high elevations, which can be reduced by even higher-resolution (2.2-km) simulations. These results indicate that WRF provides skillful simulations of precipitation relevant for studies of water resources over the complex terrain in the Himalaya.

  6. Characteristics of summer and winter precipitation over northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Guang; Xiao, Hui; Yang, Huiling; Bi, Yongheng; Xu, Wenjing

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, the statistical properties of summer and winter precipitation over the northern China plain are investigated by using a two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) and a micro-rain radar (MRR). The properties of summer precipitation presented herein are bulk properties (radar reflectivity, reflectivity-weighted fall velocity, liquid water content, and rainfall rate), raindrop fall velocity, axis ratio, and particle size distribution. Well correlations can be found among the diurnal cycles of radar reflectivity, liquid water content, and rainfall rate, whereas reflectivity-weighted fall velocity is poorly related to other bulk properties. The vertical profiles exhibit that radar reflectivity for stratiform rain is increasing with the altitude decreasing, in contrast, liquid water content and rainfall rate are reducing during the falling. These facts are useful for the radar-based rainfall rate retrieval algorithm. Axis ratio measurements are, for the first time, obtained and analyzed in northern China, which are particularly important for improving microphysical scheme in the climate models. In the constraint gamma model, the μ - Λ relation is adapted to the particle size distribution of stratiform rain, while the normalized gamma distributions for convective rain are separated to maritime-like and continental categories following the orientations and mechanisms of the storms. A new bulk-property-based algorithm is developed for the classification of convective and stratiform precipitation. For winter precipitation, radar reflectivity and snowfall rate for aggregates are calculated from the disdrometer data. The relationship of radar reflectivity and snowfall rate is obtained and validated with MRR data. The characteristics of summer and winter precipitation will be used to improve the microphysical scheme and evaluate the representation of precipitation in the climate models.

  7. Modeling Cloud and Precipitation Processes - Considerations for Future Satellite Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Heever, S. C.; Tao, W. K.; Saleeby, S. M.; Wu, D.

    2014-12-01

    Rapid developments in computing resources have allowed for cloud resolving model (CRM) simulations to be conducted over larger domains at higher spatial and temporal resolutions. Indeed, global CRMs are now a reality. Within such modeling frameworks, microphysical processes cannot be isolated from the vertical velocity that drives them, from the impact of energy exchanges due to phase changes, nor from the precipitation they produce, as has historically been the case with more highly parameterized frameworks. The increasing utilization of such high resolution, large-domain CRMs therefore introduces a new set of observational challenges. Instead of only taking into account global distributions of clouds and precipitation, observational strategies now need to be adapted to focus on the actual microphysical processes and feedbacks that are responsible for such cloud and precipitation distributions. Incorrectly representing such processes and feedbacks has significant implications for precipitation rates, efficiency and partitioning; the horizontal and vertical distribution of clouds; anvil ice properties; the partitioning between the liquid water and ice phase; and the location and amount of latent energy release associated with phase changes, all of which have subsequent implications for the global energy and water budget. Numerous microphysical and dynamical processes, and the feedbacks between them, are not well represented in CRMs. However, correctly simulating the magnitude of vertical velocity, as well as various ice processes appear to be particularly challenging. This talk will focus on the range of precipitation and cloud responses obtained within CRM simulations due to changes in the manner various ice processes are represented including melting, riming and shedding. Those parameters causing the greatest simulated cloud and precipitation responses will be identified. Factors impacting the representation of vertical velocity will also be addressed. Finally

  8. Concentration of daily precipitation in the contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royé, Dominic; Martin-Vide, Javier

    2017-11-01

    The contiguous US exhibits a wide variety of precipitation regimes, first, because of the wide range of latitudes and altitudes. The physiographic units with a basic meridional configuration contribute to the differentiation between east and west in the country while generating some large interior continental spaces. The frequency distribution of daily precipitation amounts almost anywhere conforms to a negative exponential distribution, reflecting the fact that there are many small daily totals and few large ones. Positive exponential curves, which plot the cumulative percentages of days with precipitation against the cumulative percentage of the rainfall amounts that they contribute, can be evaluated through the Concentration Index. The Concentration Index has been applied to the contiguous United States using a gridded climate dataset of daily precipitation data, at a resolution of 0.25°, provided by CPC/NOAA/OAR/Earth System Research Laboratory, for the period between 1956 and 2006. At the same time, other rainfall indices and variables such as the annual coefficient of variation, seasonal rainfall regimes and the probabilities of a day with precipitation have been presented with a view to explaining spatial CI patterns. The spatial distribution of the CI in the contiguous United States is geographically consistent, reflecting the principal physiographic and climatic units of the country. Likewise, linear correlations have been established between the CI and geographical factors such as latitude, longitude and altitude. In the latter case the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) between this factor and the CI is -0.51 (p-value < 0.001). For annual probability of days with precipitation and the CI there is also a significant and negative correlation, r = -0.25 (p-value < 0.001).

  9. An Age-Hardening Model for Al-Mg-Si Alloys Considering Needle-Shaped Precipitates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bahrami, A.; Miroux, A.; Sietsma, J.

    2012-01-01

    In the present study, an age-hardening model for Al-Mg-Si alloys was developed considering cylindrical morphology with constant aspect ratio for precipitates. It is assumed that the precipitate distribution during underaging is controlled by simultaneous nucleation and growth, and after peak age,

  10. Ecohydrology of dry regions of the United States: Precipitation pulses and intraseasonal drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    William K. Lauenroth; John B. Bradford

    2009-01-01

    Distribution of precipitation event sizes and interval lengths between events are important characteristics of arid and semi-arid climates. Understanding their importance will contribute to our ability to understand ecosystem dynamics in these regions. Our objective for this paper was to present a comprehensive analysis of the daily precipitation regimes of arid and...

  11. Electrostatic Precipitator (ESP) TRAINING MANUAL

    Science.gov (United States)

    The manual assists engineers in using a computer program, the ESPVI 4.0W, that models all elements of an electrostatic precipitator (ESP). The program is a product of the Electric Power Research Institute and runs in the Windows environment. Once an ESP is accurately modeled, the...

  12. Acid Precipitation: Causes and Consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babich, Harvey; And Others

    1980-01-01

    This article is the first of three articles in a series on the acid rain problem in recent years. Discussed are the causes of acid precipitation and its consequences for the abiotic and biotic components of the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and for man-made materials. (Author/SA)

  13. Waste and Simulant Precipitation Issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steele, W.V.

    2000-11-29

    As Savannah River Site (SRS) personnel have studied methods of preparing high-level waste for vitrification in the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF), questions have arisen with regard to the formation of insoluble waste precipitates at inopportune times. One option for decontamination of the SRS waste streams employs the use of an engineered form of crystalline silicotitanate (CST). Testing of the process during FY 1999 identified problems associated with the formation of precipitates during cesium sorption tests using CST. These precipitates may, under some circumstances, obstruct the pores of the CST particles and, hence, interfere with the sorption process. In addition, earlier results from the DWPF recycle stream compatibility testing have shown that leaching occurs from the CST when it is stored at 80 C in a high-pH environment. Evidence was established that some level of components of the CST, such as silica, was leached from the CST. This report describes the results of equilibrium modeling and precipitation studies associated with the overall stability of the waste streams, CST component leaching, and the presence of minor components in the waste streams.

  14. Kinetics of niobium carbide precipitation in ferrite; Cinetiques de precipitation du carbure de niobium dans la ferrite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gendt, D

    2001-07-01

    The aim of this study is to develop a NbC precipitation modelling in ferrite. This theoretical study is motivated by the fact it considers a ternary system and focus on the concurrence of two different diffusion mechanisms. An experimental study with TEP, SANS and Vickers micro-hardening measurements allows a description of the NbC precipitation kinetics. The mean radius of the precipitates is characterized by TEM observations. To focus on the nucleation stage, we use the Tomographic Atom Probe that analyses, at an atomistic scale, the position of the solute atoms in the matrix. A first model based on the classical nucleation theory and the diffusion-limited growth describes the precipitation of spherical precipitates. To solve the set of equations, we use a numerical algorithm that furnishes an evaluation of the precipitated fraction, the mean radius and the whole size distribution of the particles. The parameters that are the interface energy, the solubility product and the diffusion coefficients are fitted with the data available in the literature and our experimental results. It allows a satisfactory agreement as regards to the simplicity of the model. Monte Carlo simulations are used to describe the evolution of a ternary alloy Fe-Nb-C on a cubic centred rigid lattice with vacancy and interstitial mechanisms. This is realized with an atomistic description of the atoms jumps and their related frequencies. The model parameters are fitted with phase diagrams and diffusion coefficients. For the sake of simplicity, we consider that the precipitation of NbC is totally coherent and we neglect any elastic strain effect. We can observe different kinetic paths: for low supersaturations, we find an expected precipitation of NbC but for higher supersaturations, the very fast diffusivity of carbon atoms conducts to the nucleation of iron carbide particles. We establish that the occurrence of this second phenomenon depends on the vacancy arrival kinetics and can be related

  15. A comparison of the flood precipitation episode in August 2002 with historic extreme precipitation events on the Czech territory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Řezáčová, Daniela; Kašpar, Marek; Müller, Miloslav; Sokol, Zbyněk; Kakos, Vilibald; Hanslian, David; Pešice, Petr

    2005-09-01

    The hydro-meteorological characteristics of the flood from August 2002, which affected a great part of the Czech territory, particularly the Vltava and Labe river basin, were compared with corresponding conditions during similar flood events in the summer seasons of 1997, 1890, 1897 and 1903. The comparison shows analogies in synoptic conditions and causal precipitation heights. The heaviest precipitation fell in the area of a considerable horizontal pressure gradient on the rearward side of the cyclone which advanced very slowly to the north-east across Central Europe and created conditions for the transport of moist air as well as for an organized long-term updraft enhanced in orographically exposed regions. The varying features of the individual events were based on the spatial-temporal distribution of causal precipitation and also on the very different saturation of the catchments. It was chiefly the extraordinary time concentration of precipitation together with the highest catchment saturation that made the flood in 2002 the most extreme. The extremeness of meteorological fields during two episodes in July 1997 was compared with two episodes in August 2002 with the aid of the reanalysis data from ECMWF. The first episode in 1997 and the second episode in 2002 were the most similar and more extreme in terms of the large-scale fields of basic meteorological quantities. The similar features of these episodes are specifically an intensive influx of moisture into Central Europe and intensive upward motions in the precipitation area. The extremeness of upper- and low-level potential vorticity fields was evaluated to diagnose the behavior of the cyclone and frontal precipitation bands accompanying it. The suitable spatial configuration of positive upper- and low-level potential vorticity anomalies induced an additional amplification of upward motions in the precipitation area that apparently contributed to triggering the heavy precipitation over Central Europe. On

  16. The Mediterranean Oscillation and precipitation in the Jordan River region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Törnros, Tobias; Menzel, Lucas

    2014-05-01

    Most of the precipitation in the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) is associated with mid-latitude cyclones (Black, 2011). Furthermore, a low pressure over this region is often accompanied by a high pressure in the Western Mediterranean (WM). This pattern has been referred to as the Mediterranean Oscillation and given rise to the Mediterranean Oscillation Index (MOI), which can be expressed as pressure differences between Algiers in the WM and Cairo in the EM (Palutikof et al., 1996). In this study, the relationship between the MOI and precipitation in the Jordan River region, located in the EM is addressed. First of all, 30 precipitation series were tested for homogeneity and serial correlation. Thereafter, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analyses were applied to the homogenous series and the years 1960-1993. The results showed that the EOF-1 explained 60-71% of the precipitation variance and received a significant correlation with the MOI in December-February whereas no correlation was obtained for the EOF-2. In order to obtain the large scale pressure anomalies associated with winter precipitation in the study region, the EOF-1 coefficient time series was correlated with Sea Level Pressure (SLP) obtained for ca. 23° W to 70° E and 5° N to 67° N. This resulted in a correlation coefficient between -0.5 and 0.5; where negative values correspond to below normal SLP, and positive values to above normal SLP by the time of rainfall in the study region. The spatial pattern showed above normal SLP over central Europe and the WM and below normal SLP in the EM. Hence, it was reminiscent of the Mediterranean Oscillation and consistence with the results from the previous correlation analysis. The probability of precipitation during negative and positive MOI phases was thereafter derived by fitting gamma distributions to monthly precipitation. The result showed that negative MOI phases are associated with low- and below normal winter precipitation whereas positive MOI phases

  17. The long-term correlation properties of precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Lichao; Fu, Zuntao

    2017-04-01

    A number of studies have shown the instrumental observation of rainfall process acts as white noise, which means an uncorrelated random process. However, observation facts indicate extreme precipitation always occur in clusters which reflects the long-term correlation exists in the precipitation variable. The existence of long-term memory for precipitation is strongly doubted. Here we find the reason why previous studies have underestimated the correlation results and present some new results using multiple analysis methods to quantity the correlation properties of rainfall time series. The analysis methods include detrended fluctuation analysis and probability density function of return intervals. More complete precipitation series are analyzed, which range from 45 to 130 years for geographically and meteorologically distinct regions. Results show the long-term correlation in precipitation can be detected in all of the stations analyzed. We also focus on the variable of return intervals between extreme rainfall. The statistics of return intervals provide us a new look on extreme rainfall occurrence and a better understanding on the cause of catastrophe like floods.

  18. Do we have to correct winter precipitation for nowcast applications?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helfricht, Kay; Koch, Roland; Olefs, Marc

    2016-04-01

    measurement errors, i.e., wind and temperature, show different dependency on elevation. Wind is more evenly distributed and appears to be site-specific. In contrast, winter mean temperatures show no elevation dependency for TAWES elevated lower than 1000 m a.s.l. At these elevations, calculated catch ratios are between 85% and 95%, and 10% to 60% of total winter precipitation are supposed to be solid. The catch ratios decrease to values of about 75 % for stations between 1500 and 2000 m a.s.l., and solid fractions of the winter precipitation increase to more than 90%. However, with respect to the area-elevation-distribution of Austria, an overall undercatch of winter precipitation of about 15 % can be expected, and between 50 and 60 % of total winter precipitation (NDJFMA) falls as snow. These values are also confirmed by climatological data from Austria. Thus, corrections of solid precipitation are especially important at automatic weather stations located above 1000 m a.s.l., where additional measurements such as snow depth exist. Goodison, B. E., P. Y. T. Louie, and D. Yang (1998), WMO solid precipitation measurement intercomparison. Instruments and Observing Methods Rep. 67 (WMO/TD 872), World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 212 pp.

  19. Estimation of the characteristic energy of electron precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. F. del Pozo

    2002-09-01

    Full Text Available Data from simultaneous observations (on 13 February 1996, 9 November 1998, and 12 February 1999 with the IRIS, DASI and EISCAT systems are employed in the study of the energy distribution of the electron precipitation during substorm activity. The estimation of the characteristic energy of the electron precipitation over the common field of view of IRIS and DASI is discussed. In particular, we look closely at the physical basis of the correspondence between the characteristic energy, the flux-averaged energy, as defined below, and the logarithm of the ratio of the green-light intensity to the square of absorption. This study expands and corrects results presented in the paper by Kosch et al. (2001. It is noticed, moreover, that acceleration associated with diffusion processes in the magnetosphere long before precipitation may be controlling the shape of the energy spectrum. We propose and test a "mixed" distribution for the energy-flux spectrum, exponential at the lower energies and Maxwellian or modified power-law at the higher energies, with a threshold energy separating these two regimes. The energy-flux spectrum at Tromsø, in the 1–320 keV range, is derived from EISCAT electron density profiles in the 70–140 km altitude range and is applied in the "calibration" of the optical intensity and absorption distributions, in order to extrapolate the flux and characteristic energy maps.Key words. Ionosphere (auroral ionosphere; particle precipitation; particle acceleration

  20. Lightning and precipitation produced by severe weather systems over Belém, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanda Maria do Nascimento Ribeiro

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available CG Lightning flashes events monitored by a LDN of the Amazon Protection System, which included 12 LPATS IV VAISALA sensors distributed over eastern Amazonia, were analyzed during four severe rainstorm occurrences in Belem-PA-Brazil, in the 2006-2007 period. These selected case studies referred to rainfall events, which produced more than 25 mm/hour, or more than 40 mm/ 2 hours of precipitation rate totals, registered by a tipping bucket automatic high-resolution rain gauge, located at 1º 47' 53" S and 48º 30' 16" W. Centered at this location, a 30 ,10 and 5 km radius circles were drawn by means of a geographic information system, and the data from lightning occurrences within this larger area, were set apart for analysis. During these severe storms the CG lightning events, occurred almost randomly over the surrounding defined circle, previously covered by mesoscale convective systems, for all cases studied. This work also showed that the interaction between large-scale and mesoscale weather conditions have a major influence on the intensity of the storms studied cases. In addition to the enhancement of the lightning and precipitation rates, the electric activity within the larger circles can precede the rainfall at central point of the areas

  1. Vertical overlap of probability density functions of cloud and precipitation hydrometeors: CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION PDF OVERLAP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ovchinnikov, Mikhail [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lim, Kyo-Sun Sunny [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon Republic of Korea; Larson, Vincent E. [Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee Wisconsin USA; Wong, May [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Thayer-Calder, Katherine [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA

    2016-11-05

    Coarse-resolution climate models increasingly rely on probability density functions (PDFs) to represent subgrid-scale variability of prognostic variables. While PDFs characterize the horizontal variability, a separate treatment is needed to account for the vertical structure of clouds and precipitation. When sub-columns are drawn from these PDFs for microphysics or radiation parameterizations, appropriate vertical correlations must be enforced via PDF overlap specifications. This study evaluates the representation of PDF overlap in the Subgrid Importance Latin Hypercube Sampler (SILHS) employed in the assumed PDF turbulence and cloud scheme called the Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals (CLUBB). PDF overlap in CLUBB-SILHS simulations of continental and tropical oceanic deep convection is compared with overlap of PDF of various microphysics variables in cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations of the same cases that explicitly predict the 3D structure of cloud and precipitation fields. CRM results show that PDF overlap varies significantly between different hydrometeor types, as well as between PDFs of mass and number mixing ratios for each species, - a distinction that the current SILHS implementation does not make. In CRM simulations that explicitly resolve cloud and precipitation structures, faster falling species, such as rain and graupel, exhibit significantly higher coherence in their vertical distributions than slow falling cloud liquid and ice. These results suggest that to improve the overlap treatment in the sub-column generator, the PDF correlations need to depend on hydrometeor properties, such as fall speeds, in addition to the currently implemented dependency on the turbulent convective length scale.

  2. Bimodal random crystal field distribution effects on the ferrimagnetic mixed spin-1/2 and spin-3/2 Blume-Capel model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yigit, Ali, E-mail: ayigit80@karatekin.edu.tr [Cank Latin-Small-Letter-Dotless-I r Latin-Small-Letter-Dotless-I Karatekin University, Department of Physics, 18100 Cank Latin-Small-Letter-Dotless-I r Latin-Small-Letter-Dotless-I (Turkey); Albayrak, Erhan [Erciyes University, Department of Physics, 38039 Kayseri (Turkey)

    2013-03-15

    The effects of bimodal random crystal field on the phase diagrams and magnetization curves of ferrimagnetic mixed spin-1/2 and spin-3/2 Blume-Capel model are examined by using the effective field theory with correlations for honeycomb lattice. The phase diagrams are obtained on the ({Delta},kT/|J|), ({Delta},T{sub comp}) and (p,kT/|J|) planes for given values of p and {Delta}, respectively. The model exhibits only the second-order phase transitions as in the Blume-Capel model with constant crystal fields. In addition, it was found that the model presents one or two compensation temperatures for appropriate values of random crystal field for given probability in contrast to constant crystal field case. Therefore, it is shown that the random crystal field considerably affects the thermal variations of net and sublattice magnetizations. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Mixed spin-1/2 and spin-3/2 BC model with random crystal field was investigated. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Effective-field theory with correlations was used in obtaining the critical temperatures. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The phase diagrams of the model were shown for various planes. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Randomness of the crystal field leads to emergence the compensation temperatures. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It was found that the model exhibits only second-order phase transitions.

  3. Application of trichloroacetic acid-acetone precipitation method for protein extraction in bone tissue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yong-feng, Cui; Zhen, Yang; Bao-hua, Zhu; Lu-wei, Xiao; Pei-jian, Tong

    2011-04-01

    To explore the feasibility and efficiency of extracting protein from bone tissue using trichloroacetic acid (TCA)-acetone precipitation method. Hydrochloric acid (HCL) decalcification method and TCA-acetone precipitation method were separately used for bone protein extraction. The efficiencies of these two methods were compared. TCA-acetone precipitation method had significantly higher extraction efficiency. Compared with HCL decalcification method, it had less pollution from bone marrow hematopoietic tissue. Protein band distribution was similar between these two methods. TCA-acetone precipitation method is useful for bone proteomics research.

  4. Effects of ice-phase cloud microphysics in simulating wintertime precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jinwon [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Cho, Han-Ru [Toronto Univ., ON (Canada). Dept. of Physics; Soong, Sy-Tzai [California Univ., Davis, CA (United States). Dept. of Land, Air, and Water Resources

    1995-11-01

    We compare two numerical experiments to investigate the effects of ice-phase cloud microphysical processes on simulations of wintertime precipitation in the southwestern United States. Results of these simulations, one with and the other without ice-phase microphysics, suggest that an inclusion of ice-phase microphysics plays a crucial role in simulating wintertime precipitation. The simulation that employs both the ice and water-phase microphysics better reproduced the observed spatial distribution of precipitation compared to the one without ice-phase microphysics. The most significant effect of ice-phase microphysics appeared in local production of precipitating particles by collection processes, rather than in local condensation.

  5. Stability and precipitation of diverse nanoparticles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desai, Chintal

    Nanotechnology is a rapidly growing industry that is exploiting the novel characteristics of materials manufactured at the nanoscale. Carbon based nanomaterials such as Carbon Nanotubes (CNTs) and Detonation Nanodiamond (DND) possess unique properties and find a wide range of industrial applications. With the advent of mass production of such materials, there is a possibility of contamination of water resources. Depending on the surface properties and structures, they might aggregate and settle down, or be dispersed and transported by the water. Therefore, there is a need to develop an understanding of the fate of such materials in aqueous media. The understanding and effect of solution chemistry is a key to predicting their deposition, transport, reactivity, and bioavailability in aquatic environments. The colloidal behavior of organic dispersed CNTs and water dispersed DNDs is investigated. The aggregation behavior of these two colloidal systems is quite different from that of hydrophilic, water soluble functionalized CNTs (F-CNTs). The values of the Fuchs stability ratio or the critical coagulant concentration are determined experimentally using time-resolved dynamic light scattering and are used to predict the stability of such systems. It is found that the aggregation behavior of the organic dispersed, antisolvent precipitated system does not follow the conventional Derjaguin--Landau--Verwey-- Overbeek (DLVO) theory. But they stabilize in the long term, which is attributed to the supersaturation generated by different solubility of a solute in the solvent/antisolvent. Based on particle size distribution, zeta potential as well as the aggregation kinetics, the water dispersed DNDs are found to be relatively stable in aqueous solutions, but aggregate rapidly in presence of mono and divalent salts. Also, the formation of carboxylic groups on the DND surface does not alter colloidal behavior as dramatically as it does for other nanocarbons especially carbon

  6. CONCENTRATION OF Pu USING AN IODATE PRECIPITATE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fries, B.A.

    1960-02-23

    A method is given for separating plutonium from lanthanum in a lanthanum fluoride carrier precipitation process for the recovery of plutonium values from an aqueous solution. The carrier precipitation process includes the steps of forming a lanthanum fluoride precipi- . tate, thereby carrying plutonium out of solution, metathesizing the fluoride precipitate to a hydroxide precipitate, and then dissolving the hydroxide precipitate in nitric acid. In accordance with the invention, the nitric acid solution, which contains plutonium and lanthanum, is made 0.05 to 0.15 molar in potassium iodate. thereby precipitating plutonium as plutonous iodate and the plutonous iodate is separated from the lanthanum- containing supernatant solution.

  7. Comparison of regression and kriging techniques for mapping the average annual precipitation of Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostan, P. A.; Heuvelink, G. B. M.; Akyurek, S. Z.

    2012-10-01

    Accurate mapping of the spatial distribution of annual precipitation is important for many applications in hydrology, climatology, agronomy, ecology and other environmental sciences. In this study, we compared five different statistical methods to predict spatially the average annual precipitation of Turkey using point observations of annual precipitation at meteorological stations and spatially exhaustive covariate data (i.e. elevation, aspect, surface roughness, distance to coast, land use and eco-region). The methods compared were multiple linear regression (MLR), ordinary kriging (OK), regression kriging (RK), universal kriging (UK), and geographically weighted regression (GWR). Average annual precipitation of Turkey from 1970 to 2006 was measured at 225 meteorological stations that are fairly uniformly distributed across the country, with a somewhat higher spatial density along the coastline. The observed annual precipitation varied between 255 mm and 2209 mm with an average of 628 mm. The annual precipitation was highest along the southern and northern coasts and low in the centre of the country, except for the area near the Van Lake, Keban and Ataturk Dams. To compare the performance of the interpolation techniques the total dataset was first randomly split in ten equally sized test datasets. Next, for each test data set the remaining 90% of the data comprised the training dataset. Each training dataset was then used to calibrate and apply the spatial prediction model. Predictions at the test dataset locations were compared with the observed test data. Validation was done by calculating the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), R-square and Standardized MSE (SMSE) values. According to these criteria, universal kriging is the most accurate with an RMSE of 178 mm, an R-square of 0.61 and an SMSE of 1.06, whilst multiple linear regression performed worst (RMSE of 222 mm, R-square of 0.39, and SMSE of 1.44). Ordinary kriging, UK using only elevation and geographically

  8. Automatized system of precipitation monitoring and recording with use of radiolocation for urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voronov, Nikolai; Dikinis, Alexandr; Ivanov, Maxim

    2016-04-01

    One of the most important lines of work in the field of increasing the efficiency of functioning of urban water disposal systems is automation of precipitation recording with application of new technological tools for measuring precipitations fallout and forecast. The developed Automatized Information System for Atmospheric Precipitation Recording (AIS «Osadki») includes a network of automatic precipitation stations on the basis of use of the precipitation gauge OTT Pluvio2; a Doppler meteorological radar; software for collection of information about precipitations and control of work of the precipitation stations network; a specialized database that provides direct access to meteorological information and statistical estimation of precipitation distribution for urban conditions. The main advantage of the System is the use of a Doppler meteorological radar which, in combination with the measurement data of the station in the automated mode with a 5-minute interval allows to estimate both the distribution of precipitations on the urban territory their intensity. As the result, it allows to drastically increase the speed of processing of hydrometeorological information and the efficiency of using it for the needs of urban services. This article was prepared within the framework of the Federal Targeted Programme for Research and Development in Priority Areas of Development of the Russian Scientific and Technological Complex for 2014-2020 (agreement № 14.574.21.0088).

  9. Protein purification by affinity precipitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilbrig, Frank; Freitag, Ruth

    2003-06-25

    Developing the most efficient strategy for the purification of a (recombinant) protein especially at large scale remains a challenge. A typical problem of the downstream process of mammalian cell products is, for instance, the early capture of the highly diluted product from the complex process stream. Affinity precipitation has been suggested in this context. The technique is known for over 20 years, but has recently received more attention due to the development of new materials for its implementation, but also because it seems ideally suited to specific product capture at large scale. The present review gives a comprehensive overview over this technique. Besides an introduction to the basic principle and a brief summary of the historical development, the main focus is on the current state-of-art of the technique, the available materials, important recent applications, as well as process design strategies and operating procedures. Special consideration is given to affinity precipitation for product recovery at large scale.

  10. Rock fracture grouting with microbially induced carbonate precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minto, James M.; MacLachlan, Erica; El Mountassir, Gráinne; Lunn, Rebecca J.

    2016-11-01

    Microbially induced carbonate precipitation has been proposed for soil stabilization, soil strengthening, and permeability reduction as an alternative to traditional cement and chemical grouts. In this paper, we evaluate the grouting of fine aperture rock fractures with calcium carbonate, precipitated through urea hydrolysis, by the bacteria Sporosarcina pasteurii. Calcium carbonate was precipitated within a small-scale and a near field-scale (3.1 m2) artificial fracture consisting of a rough rock lower surfaces and clear polycarbonate upper surfaces. The spatial distribution of the calcium carbonate precipitation was imaged using time-lapse photography and the influence on flow pathways revealed from tracer transport imaging. In the large-scale experiment, hydraulic aperture was reduced from 276 to 22 μm, corresponding to a transmissivity reduction of 1.71 × 10-5 to 8.75 × 10-9 m2/s, over a period of 12 days under constantly flowing conditions. With a modified injection strategy a similar three orders of magnitude reduction in transmissivity was achieved over a period of 3 days. Calcium carbonate precipitated over the entire artificial fracture with strong adhesion to both upper and lower surfaces and precipitation was controlled to prevent clogging of the injection well by manipulating the injection fluid velocity. These experiments demonstrate that microbially induced carbonate precipitation can successfully be used to grout a fracture under constantly flowing conditions and may be a viable alternative to cement based grouts when a high level of hydraulic sealing is required and chemical grouts when a more durable grout is required.

  11. Importance of resolution and model configuration when downscaling extreme precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian J. Champion

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Dynamical downscaling is frequently used to investigate the dynamical variables of extra-tropical cyclones, for example, precipitation, using very high-resolution models nested within coarser resolution models to understand the processes that lead to intense precipitation. It is also used in climate change studies, using long timeseries to investigate trends in precipitation, or to look at the small-scale dynamical processes for specific case studies. This study investigates some of the problems associated with dynamical downscaling and looks at the optimum configuration to obtain the distribution and intensity of a precipitation field to match observations. This study uses the Met Office Unified Model run in limited area mode with grid spacings of 12, 4 and 1.5 km, driven by boundary conditions provided by the ECMWF Operational Analysis to produce high-resolution simulations for the Summer of 2007 UK flooding events. The numerical weather prediction model is initiated at varying times before the peak precipitation is observed to test the importance of the initialisation and boundary conditions, and how long the simulation can be run for. The results are compared to raingauge data as verification and show that the model intensities are most similar to observations when the model is initialised 12 hours before the peak precipitation is observed. It was also shown that using non-gridded datasets makes verification more difficult, with the density of observations also affecting the intensities observed. It is concluded that the simulations are able to produce realistic precipitation intensities when driven by the coarser resolution data.

  12. Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission after Three Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffman, George; Skofronick-Jackson, Gail

    2017-04-01

    The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is a partnership between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) to advance scientific understanding and practical application of satellite-based global precipitation estimates. The GPM Core Observatory spacecraft, launched February 27, 2014, provides high-quality passive microwave (PMW) and radar observations. These data are subjects of study and application in their own right, and they are also used to unify and advance precipitation measurements from a constellation of research and operational satellite PMW sensors to provide "next-generation" precipitation products. Both uses are facilitated by the the GPM Core Observatory's 65° non-Sun-synchronous orbit at an altitude of 407 km, which precesses across all times of day and covers the tropics and mid-latitudes, where a majority of the Earth's population lives. GPM provides products ranging from raw instrument data to Core and partner swath precipitation estimates, to gridded and accumulated products, and finally to multi-satellite merged products. The U.S. GPM Science Team is developing such a merged product, the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), which is available with a 5-hour latency with temporal resolution of 30 minutes and spatial resolution of 0.1° x 0.1° ( 10km x 10km). Some products have a 1-hour latency for societal applications, such as floods, landslides, hurricanes, blizzards, and typhoons, and all of these products have long-latency high-quality science products. After three years in orbit, GPM has fulfilled its initial mission requirements, which are to measure rain rates from 0.2 to 110 mm/hr and to detect and estimate falling snow. The GPM mission is well on its way to providing essential data on precipitation (rain and snow) from micro to local to global scales, providing precipitation particle size distributions in the clouds, 5-15 km estimates of regional precipitation, and merged global precipitation

  13. Evaluation of ERA-Interim precipitation data in complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Lu; Bernhardt, Matthias; Schulz, Karsten

    2013-04-01

    Precipitation controls a large variety of environmental processes, which is an essential input parameter for land surface models e.g. in hydrology, ecology and climatology. However, rain gauge networks provides the necessary information, are commonly sparse in complex terrains, especially in high mountainous regions. Reanalysis products (e.g. ERA-40 and NCEP-NCAR) as surrogate data are increasing applied in the past years. Although they are improving forward, previous studies showed that these products should be objectively evaluated due to their various uncertainties. In this study, we evaluated the precipitation data from ERA-Interim, which is a latest reanalysis product developed by ECMWF. ERA-Interim daily total precipitation are compared with high resolution gridded observation dataset (E-OBS) at 0.25°×0.25° grids for the period 1979-2010 over central Alps (45.5-48°N, 6.25-11.5°E). Wet or dry day is defined using different threshold values (0.5mm, 1mm, 5mm, 10mm and 20mm). The correspondence ratio (CR) is applied for frequency comparison, which is the ratio of days when precipitation occurs in both ERA-Interim and E-OBS dataset. The result shows that ERA-Interim captures precipitation occurrence very well with a range of CR from 0.80 to 0.97 for 0.5mm to 20mm thresholds. However, the bias of intensity increases with rising thresholds. Mean absolute error (MAE) varies between 4.5 mm day-1 and 9.5 mm day-1 in wet days for whole area. In term of mean annual cycle, ERA-Interim almost has the same standard deviation of the interannual variability of daily precipitation with E-OBS, 1.0 mm day-1. Significant wet biases happened in ERA-Interim throughout warm season (May to August) and dry biases in cold season (November to February). The spatial distribution of mean annual daily precipitation shows that ERA-Interim significant underestimates precipitation intensity in high mountains and northern flank of Alpine chain from November to March while pronounced

  14. Precipitation patterns during channel flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamtveit, B.; Hawkins, C.; Benning, L. G.; Meier, D.; Hammer, O.; Angheluta, L.

    2013-12-01

    Mineral precipitation during channelized fluid flow is widespread in a wide variety of geological systems. It is also a common and costly phenomenon in many industrial processes that involve fluid flow in pipelines. It is often referred to as scale formation and encountered in a large number of industries, including paper production, chemical manufacturing, cement operations, food processing, as well as non-renewable (i.e. oil and gas) and renewable (i.e. geothermal) energy production. We have studied the incipient stages of growth of amorphous silica on steel plates emplaced into the central areas of the ca. 1 meter in diameter sized pipelines used at the hydrothermal power plant at Hellisheidi, Iceland (with a capacity of ca 300 MW electricity and 100 MW hot water). Silica precipitation takes place over a period of ca. 2 months at approximately 120°C and a flow rate around 1 m/s. The growth produces asymmetric ca. 1mm high dendritic structures ';leaning' towards the incoming fluid flow. A novel phase-field model combined with the lattice Boltzmann method is introduced to study how the growth morphologies vary under different hydrodynamic conditions, including non-laminar systems with turbulent mixing. The model accurately predicts the observed morphologies and is directly relevant for understanding the more general problem of precipitation influenced by turbulent mixing during flow in channels with rough walls and even for porous flow. Reference: Hawkins, C., Angheluta, L., Hammer, Ø., and Jamtveit, B., Precipitation dendrites in channel flow. Europhysics Letters, 102, 54001

  15. A Bayesian kriging approach for blending satellite and ground precipitation observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdin, Andrew P.; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Kleiber, William; Funk, Christopher C.

    2015-01-01

    Drought and flood management practices require accurate estimates of precipitation. Gauge observations, however, are often sparse in regions with complicated terrain, clustered in valleys, and of poor quality. Consequently, the spatial extent of wet events is poorly represented. Satellite-derived precipitation data are an attractive alternative, though they tend to underestimate the magnitude of wet events due to their dependency on retrieval algorithms and the indirect relationship between satellite infrared observations and precipitation intensities. Here we offer a Bayesian kriging approach for blending precipitation gauge data and the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation satellite-derived precipitation estimates for Central America, Colombia, and Venezuela. First, the gauge observations are modeled as a linear function of satellite-derived estimates and any number of other variables—for this research we include elevation. Prior distributions are defined for all model parameters and the posterior distributions are obtained simultaneously via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The posterior distributions of these parameters are required for spatial estimation, and thus are obtained prior to implementing the spatial kriging model. This functional framework is applied to model parameters obtained by sampling from the posterior distributions, and the residuals of the linear model are subject to a spatial kriging model. Consequently, the posterior distributions and uncertainties of the blended precipitation estimates are obtained. We demonstrate this method by applying it to pentadal and monthly total precipitation fields during 2009. The model's performance and its inherent ability to capture wet events are investigated. We show that this blending method significantly improves upon the satellite-derived estimates and is also competitive in its ability to represent wet events. This procedure also provides a means to estimate a full conditional distribution

  16. Predictibility in Nowcasting of Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zawadzki, I.; Sourcel, M.; Berenguer, M.

    2009-05-01

    Present short term precipitation forecasting is based on two methods: Lagrangian persistence (nowcasting) and numerical weather prediction (NWP). An improvement over these methods is obtained by the combination of the two. The obvious shortcoming of nowcasting is its severe limitation in capturing new development or dissipation of precipitation. NWP has the ability to predict both but very imprecisely. An attempt to correct model errors by post-processing leads to some improvement in the skill of NWP, but the improvement, although significative, is not very impressive. The goal of our effort is to take a step back and to describe, in a quantitative manner, a) the nature of the uncertainties affecting Lagrangian persistence and NWP forecasts, as well as to determineb) the physical causes of the uncertainties. We quantify the uncertainties in short term forecasting due to limitation of nowcasting algorithms and NWP to capture correctly some of the physical phenomena that determine the predictability of precipitation. The first factor considered is the diurnal cycle that appears as the one physically determined factors that limit the precision of short term prediction. We study the cycle in radar mosaics over US and compare this to nowcasts and model outputs. The seasonal and geographical dependence of the diurnal cycle is quantitatively evaluated.

  17. Effect of creep-aging on precipitates of 7075 aluminum alloy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Y.C., E-mail: yclin@csu.edu.cn [School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083 (China); State Key Laboratory of High Performance Complex Manufacturing, Changsha 410083 (China); State Key Laboratory of Material Processing and Die and Mould Technology, Wuhan 430074 (China); Jiang, Yu-Qiang; Chen, Xiao-Min; Wen, Dong-Xu [School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083 (China); State Key Laboratory of High Performance Complex Manufacturing, Changsha 410083 (China); Zhou, Hua-Min [State Key Laboratory of Material Processing and Die and Mould Technology, Wuhan 430074 (China)

    2013-12-20

    The creep-aging behaviors of 7075 aluminum alloy are studied by uniaxial tensile creep experiments under elevated temperatures. The effects of creep-aging temperature and applied stress on the precipitates of 7075-T651 aluminum alloy are investigated using a scanning electron microscope (SEM) and a transmission electron microscope (TEM). Results show that (1) coarse insoluble precipitates (Al{sub 7}Cu{sub 2}Fe and Mg{sub 2}Si) and intermediate precipitates (Al{sub 18}Mg{sub 3}Cr{sub 2} and Al{sub 3}Zr) are found in the aluminum matrix, and the effects of creep-aging treatment on these precipitates are not obvious; (2) the main aging precipitates are η′ and η phases, and the amount of aging precipitates increase with the increase of creep-aging temperature and applied stress; (3) with the increase of creep-aging temperature and applied stress, the precipitates are discontinuously distributed on the grain boundary, and the width of precipitate free zone increases with the increase of creep-aging temperature and applied stress and (4) compared with the microstructure in the traditional stress-free aged sample, the creep-aging process can refine the precipitates and narrow the width of the precipitate free zone.

  18. Entropy-Based Investigation on the Precipitation Variability over the Hexi Corridor in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Cheng

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The spatial and temporal variability of precipitation time series were investigated for the Hexi Corridor, in Northwest China, by analyzing the entropy information. The examinations were performed on monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales based on 29 meteorological stations for the period of 1961–2015. The apportionment entropy and intensity entropy were used to analyze the regional precipitation characteristics, including the intra-annual and decadal distribution of monthly and annual precipitation amounts, as well as the number of precipitation days within a year and a decade. The regions with high precipitation variability are found in the western part of the Hexi corridor and with less precipitation, and may have a high possibility of drought occurrence. The variability of the number of precipitation days decreased from the west to the east of the corridor. Higher variability, in terms of both of precipitation amount and intensity during crop-growing season, has been found in the recent decade. In addition, the correlation between entropy-based precipitation variability and the crop yield is also compared, and the crop yield in historical periods is found to be correlated with the precipitation intensity disorder index in the middle reaches of the Hexi corridor.

  19. Modeling δ18O in tropical precipitation and the surface ocean for present-day climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, J.; Simmonds, I.; Noone, D.

    2006-03-01

    The Melbourne University atmospheric general circulation model with stable water isotope tracers is used to examine the variability of isotopic ratios of precipitation and the surface ocean in the tropics for present-day (1950-1999) climate. Surface ocean isotopic ratios are simulated interactively using a one-dimensional scheme that reproduces key features of the observed tropical isotopic spatial distribution and seasonal and interannual variability. The seasonal and interannual variability of modeled isotopic ratios of tropical precipitation is strongly associated with changes in precipitation amount, in agreement with previous isotopic modeling studies. Modeled isotopic ratios of both precipitation and surface ocean water respond to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), although the spatial patterns of ENSO and monsoon isotopic responses differ from observations because of biases in the simulated tropical climate. The model captures the dependence of the interannual variability of precipitation isotopic ratios over the tropical Andes on local temperature and precipitation variability and moisture balance over the Amazon basin but fails to reproduce a significant ENSO precipitation or isotope signal over this region. Modeled precipitation isotopic ratios are significantly correlated with local precipitation amount but not with local or regional temperature at Tibetan Plateau ice core sites on interannual timescales, in disagreement with the interpretation of these ice core records as temperature proxies. Surface ocean isotopic ratios are used to calculate modeled "coral," isotopic ratios which are compared with modern coral records, reproducing observed interannual variability where precipitation is well simulated.

  20. Temporal Patterns of Shrub Vegetation and Variation with Precipitation in Gurbantunggut Desert, Central Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuguang Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between shrub vegetation and precipitation is one important component of desert vegetation responses to climate change, but it has not been understood completely because of its complexity and nonlinearity. In this study, we used MODIS NDVI data and precipitation data from 2004 to 2012 to evaluate the relationship between the shrub vegetation and precipitation within Gurbantunggut Desert, Central Asia. Correlation analysis was employed to explore the relationship between NDVI and precipitation within growing season, within cross growing season, and on interannual scale. The results showed that NDVI could be classified into three temporal changing patterns within growing season, and NDVI was significantly correlated with the precipitation integrated by time durations and time lags within growing season; NDVI was significantly correlated with precipitation in the early growing season, but this relationship was not so obvious in the middle or late growing season; and the NDVI variational patterns depended on mean annual precipitation and the distribution of precipitation throughout the year. Precipitation had significant influence on shrub vegetation within Gurbantunggut Desert. Our findings provide basic knowledge for the relationship between precipitation and shrub vegetation, and it is helpful to understand how the desert vegetation responds to climate change in the future.

  1. Precipitating and relieving factors of migraine versus tension type headache

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haque Badrul

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To determine the differences of precipitating and relieving factors between migraine and tension type headache. Methods This is a cross sectional study. We retrospectively reviewed the records of 250 migraine patients and 250 patients diagnosed as tension type headache from the specialized headache clinic in Dept. of Neurology, Dhaka Medical College Hospital. Data were collected through a predesigned questionnaire containing information on age, sex, social status and a predetermined list of precipitating and relieving factors. Results In this study, the female patients predominated (67%. Most of the patients were within 21–30 years age group (58.6%. About 58% of them belonged to middle class families. The common precipitating factors like stress, anxiety, activity, journey, reading, cold and warm were well distributed among both the migraine and tension type headache (TTH patients. But significant difference was demonstrated for fatigue (p  Conclusion The most frequent precipitating factors for headache appear to be identical for both migraine and TTH patients. Even though some factors like fatigue, sleep deprivation, sunlight and food significantly precipitate migraine and drug, massage are effective maneuver for relieving pain among migrianeurs.

  2. Precipitating and relieving factors of migraine versus tension type headache.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haque, Badrul; Rahman, Kazi Mohibur; Hoque, Azharul; Hasan, A T M Hasibul; Chowdhury, Rajib Nayan; Khan, Sharif Uddin; Alam, Mondal Badrul; Habib, Mansur; Mohammad, Quazi Deen

    2012-08-25

    To determine the differences of precipitating and relieving factors between migraine and tension type headache. This is a cross sectional study. We retrospectively reviewed the records of 250 migraine patients and 250 patients diagnosed as tension type headache from the specialized headache clinic in Dept. of Neurology, Dhaka Medical College Hospital. Data were collected through a predesigned questionnaire containing information on age, sex, social status and a predetermined list of precipitating and relieving factors. In this study, the female patients predominated (67%). Most of the patients were within 21-30 years age group (58.6%). About 58% of them belonged to middle class families. The common precipitating factors like stress, anxiety, activity, journey, reading, cold and warm were well distributed among both the migraine and tension type headache (TTH) patients. But significant difference was demonstrated for fatigue (p sleep deprivation (p common among migraineurs. In consideration of relieving factors of pain, different maneuvers were commonly tried by migraineurs and significant difference were observed for both analgesic drug and massage (p sleep, rest and posture were used by both groups. The most frequent precipitating factors for headache appear to be identical for both migraine and TTH patients. Even though some factors like fatigue, sleep deprivation, sunlight and food significantly precipitate migraine and drug, massage are effective maneuver for relieving pain among migrianeurs.

  3. Statistically extrapolated nowcasting of summertime precipitation over the Eastern Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Min; Bica, Benedikt; Tüchler, Lukas; Kann, Alexander; Wang, Yong

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents a new multiple linear regression (MLR) approach to updating the hourly, extrapolated precipitation forecasts generated by the INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) system for the Eastern Alps. The generalized form of the model approximates the updated precipitation forecast as a linear response to combinations of predictors selected through a backward elimination algorithm from a pool of predictors. The predictors comprise the raw output of the extrapolated precipitation forecast, the latest radar observations, the convective analysis, and the precipitation analysis. For every MLR model, bias and distribution correction procedures are designed to further correct the systematic regression errors. Applications of the MLR models to a verification dataset containing two months of qualified samples, and to one-month gridded data, are performed and evaluated. Generally, MLR yields slight, but definite, improvements in the intensity accuracy of forecasts during the late evening to morning period, and significantly improves the forecasts for large thresholds. The structure-amplitude-location scores, used to evaluate the performance of the MLR approach, based on its simulation of morphological features, indicate that MLR typically reduces the overestimation of amplitudes and generates similar horizontal structures in precipitation patterns and slightly degraded location forecasts, when compared with the extrapolated nowcasting.

  4. Evolution of In-Situ Generated Reinforcement Precipitates in Metal Matrix Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sen, S.; Kar, S. K.; Catalina, A. V.; Stefanescu, D. M.; Dhindaw, B. K.

    2004-01-01

    Due to certain inherent advantages, in-situ production of Metal Matrix Composites (MMCs) have received considerable attention in the recent past. ln-situ techniques typically involve a chemical reaction that results in precipitation of a ceramic reinforcement phase. The size and spatial distribution of these precipitates ultimately determine the mechanical properties of these MMCs. In this paper we will investigate the validity of using classical growth laws and analytical expressions to describe the interaction between a precipitate and a solid-liquid interface (SLI) to predict the size and spatial evolution of the in-situ generated precipitates. Measurements made on size and distribution of Tic precipitates in a Ni&I matrix will be presented to test the validity of such an approach.

  5. Kolmogorov goodness-of-fit test for S -symmetric distributions in climate and weather modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zenkova, Z.; Lanshakova, L.

    2016-11-01

    Statistical data treatment is an essential part of climate and weather modeling. The Kolmogorov goodness-of-fit test is a widely applicable statistical method to determine the cumulative distribution function of a continuous random variable, e.g., a precipitation level, wind force, etc. In this paper, the authors consider a problem of goodness-of-fit testing involving additional information about S-symmetry of the cumulative distribution function and its influence on the Kolmogorov statistic distributions. A definition of S-symmetry is given; it is a generalized classical definition of distribution symmetry. It is proved that any continuous increasing cumulative distribution function is S-symmetric. A uniform distribution is considered as an example of an S-symmetric distribution. A modification of the Kolmogorov statistic using additional information about the new type of symmetry is proposed. The exact and asymptotic distributions under the null and the alternative hypothesis of the modified statistics are described. The authors also provide an example which proves that the modified test is more powerful than the non-modified one. The new test is used to check the hypothesis of a uniform distribution of the average sum of precipitation.

  6. European climate change experiments on precipitation change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beier, Claus

    Presentation of European activities and networks related to experiments and databases within precipitation change......Presentation of European activities and networks related to experiments and databases within precipitation change...

  7. River Forecasting Center Quantitative Precipitation Estimate Archive

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Radar indicated-rain gage verified and corrected hourly precipitation estimate on a corrected ~4km HRAP grid. This archive contains hourly estimates of precipitation...

  8. U.S. 15 Minute Precipitation Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — U.S. 15 Minute Precipitation Data is digital data set DSI-3260, archived at the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). This is precipitation data. The primary source...

  9. Amazon River Basin Precipitation, 1972-1992

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The precipitation data is 0.2 degree gridded monthly precipitation data based upon monthly rain data from Peru and Bolivia and daily rain data from Brazil....

  10. Amazon River Basin Precipitation, 1972-1992

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The precipitation data is 0.2 degree gridded monthly precipitation data based upon monthly rain data from Peru and Bolivia and daily rain data from Brazil. The...

  11. Distribution of Constituents and Metabolites of Maritime Pine Bark Extract (Pycnogenol®) into Serum, Blood Cells, and Synovial Fluid of Patients with Severe Osteoarthritis: A Randomized Controlled Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mülek, Melanie; Seefried, Lothar; Genest, Franca; Högger, Petra

    2017-01-01

    The present randomized controlled study aimed to investigate the in vivo distribution of constituents or metabolites of the standardized maritime pine bark extract Pycnogenol®. Thirty-three patients with severe osteoarthritis scheduled for a knee arthroplasty were randomized to receive either 200 mg per day Pycnogenol® (P+) or no treatment (Co) over three weeks before surgery. Serum, blood cells, and synovial fluid samples were analyzed using liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization (LC-ESI/MS/MS). Considerable interindividual differences were observed indicating pronounced variability of the polyphenol pharmacokinetics. Notably, the highest polyphenol concentrations were not detected in serum. Catechin and taxifolin primarily resided within the blood cells while the microbial catechin metabolite δ-(3,4-dihydroxy-phenyl)-γ-valerolactone, ferulic, and caffeic acid were mainly present in synovial fluid samples. Taxifolin was detected in serum and synovial fluid exclusively in the P+ group. Likewise, no ferulic acid was found in serum samples of the Co group. Calculating ratios of analyte distribution in individual patients revealed a simultaneous presence of some polyphenols in serum, blood cells, and/or synovial fluid only in the P+ group. This is the first evidence that polyphenols distribute into the synovial fluid of patients with osteoarthritis which supports rationalizing the results of clinical efficacy studies. PMID:28452960

  12. Climate change projections for precipitation in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, C.; Santos, J. A.

    2013-10-01

    The strong irregularity of precipitation in Portugal, which may e.g. trigger severe/extreme droughts and floods, results in a high vulnerability of the country to precipitation inter-annual variability and to its extremes. Furthermore, dryer future climates are projected for Portugal, though there has also been some growing evidence for a strengthening of precipitation extremes. Due to the central role played byprecipitation on many socio-economic sectors and environmental systems, regional climate change assessments for precipitation in Portugal are necessary. This study is focused on analyzing climate change projections for seasonal (3-month) precipitation totals and their corresponding extremes over mainland Portugal. Taking into account the strong seasonality of the precipitation regimes in Portugal, winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) are considered separately. Precipitation datasets generated by a 16-member ensemble of regional climate model experiments from the ENSEMBLES project are used. Percentile-based indices of precipitation are computed and analyzed for a recent past period (1961-2000) and for a near future period (2041-2070). Results for the R5p, R50p and R95p indices highlight significant projected changes in precipitation, with a clear distinction between northwestern Portugal and the rest of the country in both seasons. Overall, precipitation is projected to decrease in both seasons, particularly over northwestern Portugal in winter, despite some significant regional differences. Although precipitation is projected to decrease in most cases, extremely high seasonal precipitations (above the 95th percentile)areexpected to increase in winter.

  13. Acid Precipitation and the Forest Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dochinger, Leon S.; Seliga, Thomas A.

    1975-01-01

    The First International Symposium on Acid Precipitation and the Forest Ecosystem dealt with the potential magnitude of the global effects of acid precipitation on aquatic ecosystems, forest soils, and forest vegetation. The problem is discussed in the light of atmospheric chemistry, transport, and precipitation. (Author/BT)

  14. The weak acid nature of precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    John O. Frohliger; Robert L. Kane

    1976-01-01

    Recent measurements of the pH of precipitation leave no doubt that rainfall is acidic. Evidence will be presented that precipitation is a weak acid system. The results of this research indicate the need to establish standard sampling procedures to provide uniform sampling of precipitation

  15. Randomization tests

    CERN Document Server

    Edgington, Eugene

    2007-01-01

    Statistical Tests That Do Not Require Random Sampling Randomization Tests Numerical Examples Randomization Tests and Nonrandom Samples The Prevalence of Nonrandom Samples in Experiments The Irrelevance of Random Samples for the Typical Experiment Generalizing from Nonrandom Samples Intelligibility Respect for the Validity of Randomization Tests Versatility Practicality Precursors of Randomization Tests Other Applications of Permutation Tests Questions and Exercises Notes References Randomized Experiments Unique Benefits of Experiments Experimentation without Mani

  16. Are precipitation anomalies associated with aerosol variations over eastern China?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Xu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In eastern China (EC, the strong anthropogenic emissions deteriorate the atmospheric environment, building a south–north zonal distribution of high aerosols harbored by the upstream Tibetan and Loess plateaus in China. This study climatologically analyzed the interannual variability in precipitation with different intensities in association with aerosol variations over the EC region from 1961 to 2010 by using precipitation and visibility data from more than 50 years and aircraft and surface aerosol data from recent years in China, and the impacts of aerosol variations on interannual variability in the intensity of precipitation events and their physical causes are investigated. We found that the frequency of light rain has significantly decreased and the occurrence of rainstorms, especially severe rainstorms, has significantly increased over recent decades. The extreme precipitation events presented an interannual variability pattern similar to that of the frequent haze events over EC. Accompanied by the frequent haze events in EC, light rain frequency significantly decreased and extremely heavy precipitation events have occurred more frequently. During the 1980s, the regional precipitation trends in EC showed an obvious transform from more light rain to more extreme rainstorms. The running correlation analysis of interdecadal variation further verified that the correlation between the increasing aerosols and frequencies of abnormal precipitation events tended to be more significant in EC. The correlation between atmospheric visibility and low cloud amounts, which are both closely related to aerosol concentrations, was positive in the north and negative in the south, and the spatial distribution of the variability in regional rainstorm frequency was positive in the south and negative in the north. After the 1990s, the visibility in summer season deteriorated more remarkably, light rain frequency decreased noticeably, and rainstorms and

  17. Are precipitation anomalies associated with aerosol variations over eastern China?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiangde; Guo, Xueliang; Zhao, Tianliang; An, Xingqin; Zhao, Yang; Quan, Jiannong; Mao, Fei; Gao, Yang; Cheng, Xinghong; Zhu, Wenhui; Wang, Yinjun

    2017-06-01

    In eastern China (EC), the strong anthropogenic emissions deteriorate the atmospheric environment, building a south-north zonal distribution of high aerosols harbored by the upstream Tibetan and Loess plateaus in China. This study climatologically analyzed the interannual variability in precipitation with different intensities in association with aerosol variations over the EC region from 1961 to 2010 by using precipitation and visibility data from more than 50 years and aircraft and surface aerosol data from recent years in China, and the impacts of aerosol variations on interannual variability in the intensity of precipitation events and their physical causes are investigated. We found that the frequency of light rain has significantly decreased and the occurrence of rainstorms, especially severe rainstorms, has significantly increased over recent decades. The extreme precipitation events presented an interannual variability pattern similar to that of the frequent haze events over EC. Accompanied by the frequent haze events in EC, light rain frequency significantly decreased and extremely heavy precipitation events have occurred more frequently. During the 1980s, the regional precipitation trends in EC showed an obvious transform from more light rain to more extreme rainstorms. The running correlation analysis of interdecadal variation further verified that the correlation between the increasing aerosols and frequencies of abnormal precipitation events tended to be more significant in EC. The correlation between atmospheric visibility and low cloud amounts, which are both closely related to aerosol concentrations, was positive in the north and negative in the south, and the spatial distribution of the variability in regional rainstorm frequency was positive in the south and negative in the north. After the 1990s, the visibility in summer season deteriorated more remarkably, light rain frequency decreased noticeably, and rainstorms and extraordinarily heavy

  18. Precipitation model in continuous time. Modelo de precipitacion en tiempo continuo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castro Tendero, A.J.; Garcia Guzman, A.

    1993-01-01

    A statistical model in continuous time is proposed to describe hourly precipitation data at a specific point. The aim of the model is to represent the arrival of storm fronts and the random number of rains per front. A numerical applications was made to the rain occurrence in Cordoba, and the model proved to provide an acceptable description of many aspects of the precipitation pattern, including hourly durations and hourly, or daily rainfall amounts. Author (11 refs. 11 fig.)

  19. Skill assessment of precipitation nowcasting in Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bech, Joan; Berenguer, Marc

    2013-04-01

    Very short-term precipitation forecasting (i.e nowcasting) systems may provide valuable support in the weather surveillance process as they allow to issue automated early warnings for heavy precipitation events (HPE) as reviewed recently by Pierce et al. (2012). The need for warnings is essential in densely populated regions of small catchments, such as those typically found in Mediterranean coastal areas, prone to flash-floods. Several HPEs that occurred in NE Spain are analyzed using a nowcasting system based on the extrapolation of rainfall fields observed with weather radar following a Lagrangian approach developed and tested successfully in previous studies (Berenguer et al. 2005, 2011). Radar-based nowcasts, with lead times up to 3 h, are verified here against quality-controlled weather radar quantitative precipitation estimates and also against a dense network of raingauges. The basic questions studied are the dependence of forecast quality with lead time and rainfall amounts in several high-impact HPEs such as the 7 September 2005 Llobregat Delta river tornado outbreak (Bech et al. 2007) or the 2 November 2008 supercell tornadic thunderstorms (Bech et al. 2011) - both cases had intense rainfall rates (30' amounts exceeding 38.2 and 12.3 mm respectively) and daily values above 100 mm. Verification scores indicated that forecasts of 30' precipitation amounts provided useful guidance for lead times up to 60' for moderate intensities (up to 1 mm in 30') and up to 2.5h for lower rates (above 0.1 mm). On the other hand correlations of radar estimates and forecasts exceeded Eulerian persistence of precipitation estimates for lead times of 1.5 h for moderate intensities (up to 0.8 mm/h). We complete the analysis with a discussion on the reliability of threshold to lead time dependence based on the event-to-event variability found. This work has been done in the framework of the ProFEWS project (CGL2010-15892). References Bech J, N Pineda, T Rigo, M Aran, J Amaro, M

  20. Trends in extreme temperature and precipitation in Muscat, Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. N. Gunawardhana

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Changes in frequency and intensity of weather events often result in more frequent and intensive disasters such as flash floods and persistent droughts. In Oman, changes in precipitation and temperature have already been detected, although a comprehensive analysis to determine long-term trends is yet to be conducted. We analysed daily precipitation and temperature records in Muscat, the capital city of Oman, mainly focusing on extremes. A set of climate indices, defined in the RClimDex software package, were derived from the longest available daily series (precipitation over the period 1977–2011 and temperature over the period 1986–2011. Results showed significant changes in temperature extremes associated with cooling. Annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TX, on average, decreased by 1°C (0.42°C/10 year. Similarly, the annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TN decreased by 1.5°C (0.61°C/10 year, which, on average, cooled at a faster rate than the maximum temperature. Consequently, the annual count of days when TX > 45°C (98th percentile decreased from 8 to 3, by 5 days. Similarly, the annual count of days when TN < 15°C (2nd percentile increased from 5 to 15, by 10 days. Annual total precipitation averaged over the period 1977–2011 is 81 mm, which shows a tendency toward wetter conditions with a 6 mm/10 year rate. There is also a significant tendency for stronger precipitation extremes according to many indices. The contribution from very wet days to the annual precipitation totals steadily increases with significance at 75% level. When The General Extreme Value (GEV probability distribution is fitted to annual maximum 1-day precipitation, the return level of a 10-year return period in 1995–2011 was estimated to be 95 mm. This return level in the recent decade is about 70% higher than the return level for the period of 1977–1994. These results indicate that the long-term wetting signal apparent in total

  1. Limnological aspects of acid precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hendrey, G.R. (ed.)

    1978-01-01

    Lakes and streams in parts of Norway, Sweden, Canada, and the United States are being severely impacted by acidic precipitation. Scientists meeting at Sagamore, New York, agreed that this is the most serious limnological problem today. The factor responsible for determining the sensitivity of surface waters to acidification is alkalinity derived by weathering of soils and bedrock in the watershed. Acidification, defined as a reduction in alkalinity, can be quantified if preacidification alkalinity data exist, but often they do not. Data on pH and Ca from surface waters in areas not affected by acid precipitation were compared to similar data from areas which receive precipitation with a weighted average hydrogen ion concentration of pH < 4.6. A semiquantitative estimation of surface water acidification can be made for lakes and streams, where earlier chemistry data are lacking, based on this analysis of pH and Ca data. Biological responses to acidification range from a reduction in numbers of species of algae and zooplankton to complete elimination of all fish life. Major biological processes such as primary production and decomposition may be altered leading to an accumulation of plant material and organic debris within lakes and streams. Increased concentrations of aluminum from the ..mu..g/l to mg/l range have been found at levels shown to be toxic to fish. These elevated levels apparently result from the exchange of H/sup +/ and Al in the watershed. There also appears to be a relationship between lake acidification and the accumulation of mercury in fish. Problems of aluminum analysis received detailed attention, and watershed mass balances, comparative watershed studies, whole lake manipulations, synoptic surveys, and the liming of acidified waters were discussed. A priority-rated list of recommendations for research was presented.

  2. Extreme precipitation events in the Czech Republic: Comparison of events leading to floods in June 2013 and last 20 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valeriánová, Anna; Crhová, Lenka; Holtanová, Eva; Kašpar, Marek; Můller, Miloslav; Kyselý, Jan; Stříž, Martin

    2014-05-01

    Assessment of the quantity and extremity of extreme precipitation is important for many sectors, especially for hydrology and geology. In present contribution we focus on precipitation leading to the flood events during May and June 2013 in the Czech Republic. The first extreme precipitation event was connected with cyclone above central Europe. The significant precipitation occurred mainly in the western and central part of the Czech Republic. On 1/6/2013 we recorded in some places 1-day precipitation amounts over 100 mm. The return period of 1-day precipitation exceeded 100 years at some stations. The second extreme precipitation event on 24/6 and 25/6/2013 affected eastern and northern part of the Czech Republic. The precipitation amounts were not as high as in the beginning of June, but in some places 2-day precipitation amount exceeded 100 mm. We compare the extremity of observed precipitation amounts with those that caused the significant floods in 2010, 2002 and 1997 using the Weather Extremity Index which evaluates the extremity (based on return periods) and spatial extent of the meteorological extreme event of interest. The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is used as the parametric model for annual maxima of 1-day to 7-day precipitation amounts. Parameters of the GEV distribution are estimated by the L-moment algorithm and the region-of-influence method. The work has been supported by the grant P209/11/1990 funded by the Czech Science Foundation.

  3. Recent Developments on Discontinuous Precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zięba P.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The discontinuous precipitation (DP belongs to a group of diffusive solid state phase transformations during which the formation of a new phase is heterogeneous and limited to a migrating reaction front (RF. The use of analytical electron microscopy provided reliable information that there is no differences in the diffusion rate at the stationary grain boundary and moving RF of DP reaction. On the other hand, the use of “in situ” transmission electron microscopy observations indicated the importance of stop-go motion or oscillatory movement of the RF.

  4. Precipitating antibodies in mycoplasma infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menonna, J; Chmel, H; Menegus, M; Dowling, P; Cook, S

    1977-01-01

    The effectiveness of counterimmunoelectrophoresis (CIEP) for detecting human precipitating antibodies to mcyoplasma antigen was compared with the conventional complement fixation (CF) method in a double-blind experiment. Fifty-one sera from patients suspected of having acute mycoplasma infection were tested by both techniques. Dense precipitin lines to mycoplasma antigen developed in 28 sera with CIEP. Twenty-six of 28 had elevated CF titers to this antigen. No precipitin bands were observed in sera with low antibody titers to mycoplasma. These findings indicate that the CIEP test is a specific method for reliably detecting elevated serum CF antibody levels in patients with acute or recent mycoplasma infection. PMID:328527

  5. GPM Ground Validation Pluvio Precipitation Gauges OLYMPEX V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The GPM Ground Validation Pluvio Precipitation Gauges OLYMPEX dataset contains one-minute precipitation rate and precipitation accumulation measurements, as well as...

  6. A random matrix/transition state theory for the probability distribution of state-specific unimolecular decay rates: Generalization to include total angular momentum conservation and other dynamical symmetries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hernandez, R.; Miller, W.H.; Moore, C.B. (Department of Chemistry, University of California, and Chemical Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720 (United States)); Polik, W.F. (Department of Chemistry, Hope College, Holland, Michigan 49423 (United States))

    1993-07-15

    A previously developed random matrix/transition state theory (RM/TST) model for the probability distribution of state-specific unimolecular decay rates has been generalized to incorporate total angular momentum conservation and other dynamical symmetries. The model is made into a predictive theory by using a semiclassical method to determine the transmission probabilities of a nonseparable rovibrational Hamiltonian at the transition state. The overall theory gives a good description of the state-specific rates for the D[sub 2]CO[r arrow]D[sub 2]+CO unimolecular decay; in particular, it describes the dependence of the distribution of rates on total angular momentum [ital J]. Comparison of the experimental values with results of the RM/TST theory suggests that there is mixing among the rovibrational states.

  7. Analysis of extreme precipitation characteristics in low mountain areas based on three-dimensional copulas—taking Kuandian County as an example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Cailin; Ren, Xuehui; Li, Ying

    2017-04-01

    We defined the threshold of extreme precipitation using detrended fluctuation analysis based on daily precipitation during 1955-2013 in Kuandian County, Liaoning Province. Three-dimensional copulas were introduced to analyze the characteristics of four extreme precipitation factors: the annual extreme precipitation day, extreme precipitation amount, annual average extreme precipitation intensity, and extreme precipitation rate of contribution. The results show that (1) the threshold is 95.0 mm, extreme precipitation events generally occur 1-2 times a year, the average extreme precipitation intensity is 100-150 mm, and the extreme precipitation amount is 100-270 mm accounting for 10 to 37 % of annual precipitation. (2) The generalized extreme value distribution, extreme value distribution, and generalized Pareto distribution are suitable for fitting the distribution function for each element of extreme precipitation. The Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH) copula function reflects the joint characteristics of extreme precipitation factors. (3) The return period of the three types has significant synchronicity, and the joint return period and co-occurrence return period have long delay when the return period of the single factor is long. This reflects the inalienability of extreme precipitation factors. The co-occurrence return period is longer than that of the single factor and joint return period. (4) The single factor fitting only reflects single factor information of extreme precipitation but is unrelated to the relationship between factors. Three-dimensional copulas represent the internal information of extreme precipitation factors and are closer to the actual. The copula function is potentially widely applicable for the multiple factors of extreme precipitation.

  8. Niobium carbide and tin precipitation in continuously cast microalloyed steels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, Julian

    With high yield strength, toughness and good weldability, microalloyed steels are widely used in the automotive, pipeline and transportation industries. Microalloying elements such as niobium (Nb), titanium (Ti) and vanadium (V) in concentrations of less than 0.1 wt. pct. are typical. For optimal benefits in the final product, it is usually desired for Ti to form fine precipitates during and after solidification and for Nb to be in solution prior to hot-rolling. Vanadium precipitates at lower temperatures and is less involved in the solidification/casting process. In one aspect of the investigation, the effects of cooling rate on the titanium nitride (TiN) precipitation size distribution were investigated in a Ti-added low-carbon steel. Prior research reported an inverse relationship between the average TiN precipitation size and the post-solidification cooling rate and the present work was undertaken to examine this behavior over a wider range of cooling rates. Using the GleebleRTM 3500's casting simulation capabilities along with controlled cooling rates, the TiN precipitation behavior in thick-slab, thin-slab and thin-strip material was simulated using a commercially produced 0.04C, 1.23Mn steel with near-stoichiometric Ti and N levels. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) investigation of carbon extraction replicas was carried out to characterize the influence of cooling rates on precipitate size distributions. Decreasing particle sizes with increasing cooling rates were found. Average particle sizes as low as 6.7 nm were present in thin-strip simulations and might be of interest, as fine particles could contribute to strengthening of rapidly cooled steels. In a second aspect of the investigation, niobium carbide (NbC) precipitation during the compact strip production (CSP) process was investigated in two Nb-added low-carbon steels. Instead of industrial sampling, the GleebleRTM was used for casting simulations using two CMn(Nb) steels with high and low- Nb

  9. Error Analysis of Satellite Precipitation-Driven Modeling of Flood Events in Complex Alpine Terrain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiwen Mei

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The error in satellite precipitation-driven complex terrain flood simulations is characterized in this study for eight different global satellite products and 128 flood events over the Eastern Italian Alps. The flood events are grouped according to two flood types: rain floods and flash floods. The satellite precipitation products and runoff simulations are evaluated based on systematic and random error metrics applied on the matched event pairs and basin-scale event properties (i.e., rainfall and runoff cumulative depth and time series shape. Overall, error characteristics exhibit dependency on the flood